If you don't know where you're going to be on January first
2023, and what matchups you'll be watching on that day.
You're paying the rake prior homos.
Handjob exercise. Germar Chase.
Eric or welcome back to the show was the last know you've had to
have been on since last summer show, right?
I can't really remember, I can't really remember, because all
I've been thinking about for the last, like, three months has New
Year's Day 2023. So, I don't really remember a
lot of the, you know, guest appearances that I've made.
I'm really just hyper-focus married to the game if you will,
that's right now, that's how I want to make sure.
Cause sometimes I question, you know, everyone's I'm trying to
think here, because this help if I do this, just grabbing for my
depression, just makes your ticker here.
I'll have to work on the for bad egg here, but if you do, if you
know the schedule, you get it, you get it.
We're making our, we're making, we're making it, we're making a
shirt. It's going to be glorious.
I'm really excited for all. Thanks to each other twice, as
Jack, Black Jacks. I don't know what happened.
I just copied from my spreadsheet.
Oh, it's because Houston plays Casey Tennessee in Jacksonville,
and then Jacksonville's next alphabetically.
So, goddesses are the three matchups for each team.
This is the three Matchups. Yes, here's your cheat sheet.
I know. But Eric, how about have you
been, dude? It's been, it's been wonderful.
I was, I was trying to look before but I got distracted with
with the basketball game and like last year, we it took a
long time throughout the offseason to kind of like really
shake things up in the whole like best ball space, right?
Like last year was like the first big gear of drafting and
then like one of these streams, you know, we did the wide
receiver thing and the next thing, you know, the whole draft
Market That now we're like barely out of May.
It's June 8th. I literally had to check.
The date is June 8th and like we already have everybody triggered
about the stupid. So it's so stupid week, 17
things. So I feel like we're making
progress. I'm anxious to see it, really
irks. Yeah.
What, what happens next year? Like what are we going to talk
about in? Like February like while the
Super Bowl is going? Are we gonna be streaming about
like what you know our strategy is for for next year?
I don't know but we're making progress.
What I love about the week 17 thing is that like even people
who agree with the week 17 thing, or also still just drink
the whole conversation. Yes, of course.
But please stop with Eric about it too.
It was like, I don't know, I put out the video.
Eric's, been talking a lot about it at Spike week, I guess I
haven't like seen it. I know some of the ETR, guys,
jack Miller's wrote in up written up a few good pieces
about it. But I haven't really seen it
that many places other than But everyone is mad.
Everyone is mad about this right now.
They're precious best ball. Game has been ruined by.
It seems like there was just silence.
It was just your video, the video.
I mean, you've got a, there's a medic here where you used to
make fun of the group think. And now, when you make something
serious, it's immediately the group think that everyone wants.
It was funny this how the sausage gets made on that
because I was I've been working with Michael.
Abner on those videos he's helped out a ton and we were
trying to Rack our brain for good titles for that video
because everyone now does the how to win two million dollars
playing basketball. It's like we've all seen that a
million times so it's just white noise and I had the it had the
Epiphany to I was like week 17 is all that matters that is good
click that and it will trigger the shit out of a lot of people
and apparently it did I just realized the The Logical end to
the med I just described is you mocking you gotta have to have
you Uh, yeah video now. Oh, you got a pad immediately
like work? Well, that just like, yeah, what
was it in the dynasty Guy video? He was given the ship Chasers,
the jerk-off motion for their Sky more love.
So yeah, I think I do have to do another best ball bro, sequel?
We just have so many. I mean, Eric think about like
even the vocabulary that has changed like when I made that
video last year. I mean, so many of the things we
talked about now barbell week 70, like we weren't this wasn't
even part of the vernacular. No, it's fucking nuts, dude.
Like it took, it took a whole year.
It took a whole year to like now I'm like memeing Trail ants,
right? That's it.
This year like before this whole week 17 thing came about.
All I'm doing is kind of your stupid bit videos because it's
not really worth while to put out this serious content because
you either get the people like on the show listening to it or
like in your Discord in my Discord, whatever where we can
have some serious conversation about it but like on Twitter and
whatever. We just joke around and now but
the feedback loop is so fast. Now, like last year, it was
like, we were all willing to have real conversations about
all of this. I legitimately believe that,
like, the week 17 thing is like something we figured out like,
like, we all knew it last year, right?
We talked about it. I mean, we talked about it on
this show. You talked about on your
streams, we talked about it on the stream that we did that on
the, the best Ball Mania team that did that did really well,
James Conner, because he was playing our Dallas Cowboys
stack. Exactly exactly half the pics.
We made were because of the week 17 thing.
But last year, for whatever reason, it didn't stick with
people and now like that feedback loop.
It was like a lot of people, I'm not calling myself smart, but a
lot of smart people started to figure out like em, like in your
video, all the money is in week 17, like literally all the money
is in week 17. So I should probably try to do
my best to optimize for that. That's all we've said.
And I don't know what happened. All the sudden everybody is just
like, oh, all they ever talk about is week 17.
And and like, that's not true. But it's like the 0 RB.
It's the new 0 RB. It's 100% the new 0r B.
Like there's no middle ground to be had in this whole
conversation. You're like gonna need ten more
years arguing to get to the news, your RV.
How about I'm retired? I hope I'm not doing this in 10
years, I'm up. I'm up two minds about this
because on the one hand, you know, before the draft I was
like I should answer some puppy slows and of course,
accidentally entered a puppy fast, which I'm in right now.
So getting sniped on AJ Green in the in the sixteenth round is
like such a gross feeling of like I was going to draft them
and now I'm so I can't but I need him because I have Tyler
and I already have Kyler double stacks and I have got a drake
one to bring back but I still wanted that sweet sweet triple
stack. So from that sets like week 16
week 17 is dumb and we should stop talking about it but I
think there's also like some meat left on the bone here with
this conversation because like not only is week 17 like so much
more important than advancing but like week 16 is also way
more important than advance and like you know like doing well in
week 15 week 15 is also way more important than advancing.
So like I think like we're still there's still some more
triggering to come here on one, kind of like how.
Because right we're taking a game this best ball game that's
been primarily about like Being able to win your 12 team 12,
team leagues, consistently or maybe even like grinding 3 mins
and six man's whatever and just like almost like a cash game
strategy and it's now transformed to the super
top-heavy tournament structure, which is like a completely
different game to the point. Like I think we're all still
kind of realizing just how different it is from like best
ball and I do think. Now again, we were obviously in
such a bubble for the people who are still attacking it this way,
but I don't know how you feel Eric, but what I feel, Like I
almost want to have an addendum or a PSA of like there is
diminishing returns to reaching for the stacks and I almost feel
like it's now. Okay, say there's a cohort of us
who are hammering. This strategy, the best at
employing, this are now going to be the most patient of that
cohort who can sit and wait on their correlation, you're going
to get more naturally unique teams because that cohort is
reaching to get these stacks and it's going to have similar
Stacks repeated over and over, who can build the super teams
with the correlation. Patient enough to sit on it.
I feel like that is now the game for me it was 100% Auto Dragon,
so, yeah, the drop-off exactly. He's got to focus on this puppy
draft, but I actually think that's the thing that gets
missed. The most in any, like, strategic
conversation is that it becomes binary, it becomes 0.
All you care about is week 17 and that is absolutely not true,
right? You, you still have to Leone
replied. To one of the Tweets that I had
and said it really really perfectly.
It was it was so smart basically calling it as long as your
stick. So we have to put all these
addendums on these things, right?
But as long as you're still drafting a structurally smart
team, right? You don't have six.
Quarterbacks you're drafting, you know, you're not reaching
two, three, four rounds on players like as long as we put
those caveats in, you get to a tier of players, right?
Like you talked about in the draft we did last year.
Are we going to take James, Conner?
Or we going to take, whoever right another Another very
similar running back in the 10th round, will you take that?
It's like a tiebreaker. It's like, on this team for this
structure of vest ball tournament.
Now that that player makes more sense, but he doesn't always
make more sense, right? Even if you have Arizona guys or
Atlanta guys, or last year, it was Cowboys and Cardinals, guys,
that Claire doesn't always make sense.
He started a robust running back team, you don't take James
Conner there. So there's a lot, it's like the
third or fourth rung down. On the list when you're doing
the drafts and so I just don't ever, I don't really get why
it's even like a triggering thing because it's just like a,
I've reached a tear, right? I've reached a tear and now, how
do I decide between guys that project the exact same, right?
It's just like in DFS. I've two guys to project within
point, two points of each other. Well, I'm going to choose the
things that make the most sense on that lineup, right?
I'm not just going to pick the guy that projects 4.1 more.
I'm going to pick the guy that gets the most sense on that line
up. So I don't know.
This is any different. Yeah.
And I was stupid. I mean this is it.
Like when you say is the news, you are be.
It's an Uzi or be in that regard that like everything you just
said, made perfect sense. But people still people don't
love uncertainty, right? So like what you just described
about players being in similar to yours requires us to
acknowledge what we've been trying to talk about with 0 RB
and so many other strategies for years.
The NFL seasons are chaotic when we don't know a lot, we're gonna
have mrs. We have to bake in some
resiliency, we have to try to build an anti fragile team that
can actually get better with in chaos because there's going to
be chaos. There's going to be a lot of
Uncertain events But like everyone wants to predict they
want to, they want to, you know, I know better.
Why would you take this plate over this playlist but it's
definitely better. I mean, everything you said, but
actually feels. It feels less like Zero running
back to me and more like some like, DFS gpp strategy stuff.
We're like, yeah, yeah. Like it feels like the thing
like, you know, I watch your shows in your like guys, we
cannot eat the chalky. We can't do it and it's like
every week, you're like, you know, that they're like with
this. We can we need to talk to you,
like still no more like that. Where like people are kind of on
board, they want to be on board, there's some, but like we're all
still kind of figuring out like what the optimal way to play a.
So there's this ongoing conversation but there's also
like these biases that you're fighting that you want to draft
a certain way like even if you know, you should need to talk to
you. You kind of want to that week
because it's such a good player. Whatever it is.
I feels more like that than 0 RB where people have gone to their
camps and their, and their sharpening their weapons.
But it's similar though I think from the DFS perspective, sorry
Pete, I was just going to say because I obviously like I came
from DFS. So a lot of this is where my
mind you know, naturally gravitates to his these kinds of
things. I also think that's why I like
Pete came across this while a lot of us all think the same is
because we come from DFS, I don't really come.
I know you guys kind of You more than me.
Like, I don't come from traditional season, like I
haven't been grinding the main event for years and like trying
to, you know, pick the pick, the best plays or whatever.
Sorry, Mike. Those guys literally just like
started putting something in my ears.
Those freaking that was freaking me out for a second.
Those four years since before I've been doing it definitely
care about the playoffs like their lives every year, they
were looking at Weeks, 14 15, 16 back in the day, every year.
Like that's one of the first things I learned from shamas.
He cared a lot about the matchups and the number we did
Fantasy Land in our very first trip and we were interviewing
the Grinders and they were talking to us about the schedule
and I remember that was like a lightbulb moment for you and me
that we're like, oh we had never even thought of looking at the
week, 14 through 16 at the time and just I would just close out
the point, the the DFS angle, it reminds me so much of talking
with blender, right? So for like more than a year, I
podcast it with blender every Eek and he has big stick.
If you don't know Jordan Cooper at blender HD on on Twitter is
like you know he's like play, whoever you want, that's his
thing. But it when it goes back to is
like, people be like, do you like this guy or this guy?
He's like, I don't fucking know. Look at the projection, you
know, I don't care. These Darrell chest, these are
chess pieces and that's what it is.
Invest ball to its people are, but people are not.
It's not ingrained in us that there's in DFS, we kind of are
now. It's such a mature industry.
Re-invest ball. It's not people are like no
watch the film on this guy and you're like, I mean, yeah, you
like that plays into my rankings in my projections and all that,
but but then, once I reach a certain point that that player
is at the same tear on my rankings and projects the same
as everybody else, then we move on to the next you know, the
next lever that I pull and, and like, but people, I feel like in
best ball we haven't reached the point where that's like the
market cans in DFS, 100%. That's I mean we're way past
that we're way more advanced Pete's talking to Brick and
Bricks doing shit that I never even meet up guy can dream of in
his in his models and stuff. But we just haven't got their
invest ball and it's funny, you say, the the, the whole play,
whoever you want, because I was thinking about that as far as
constructions to and I was thinking, like, draft whoever
you want. Like, I truly think in the first
three to four rounds, assuming you're not, maybe taking like to
cubies within the first four, you can build a logical
well-made team based on whatever you do.
Do in those first four or five rounds and it's just it's what
you do after that. It's the whole thing.
Hyper fragile is always the best example.
You can start three Arby's that is completely fine.
It's do you take your feet off the gas and then reallocate all
your Capital to the other positions?
And that's what I think is so fun about this.
It's like, I can't I never feel comfortable nitpicking a draft
board until like round six because it's still like this is
a Choose Your Own Adventure at the start.
Yeah, it's like the blender thing.
It's, you know, if you want to get the truck running back that
week, Eat the chalk running back but then you have but then don't
eat the truck stack at the chalk bring that you know like he's
writing GBP that's not going to work out.
So it's kind of like this like you want to start two or three
running backs, like start two or three running backs but then
don't take that fourth, just take the fourth in round five
that's gonna hurt. And and then when all of the
money is in week 17, right? Similar to a DFS tournament.
All the money is at the top. So your you are not building,
two, men. Cash, why are you having the
conversation that you Just mentioned, right?
Dalvin cook Sout. Alexander Madison is 5K.
He's going to be 80% own. I'm going to play him.
I decided I'm going to play a me, projects to well or
whatever. Then, right, Ryan Tannehill to
AJ Brown, is also going to be the highest own stack.
It's like, okay, I probably can't play that like and I
can't. And then the Eagles are facing
whatever offense, they're going to be a 30 percent on defense.
You have to start making decisions because all the money
is at the top. And how do I get there?
Not by playing the same guys that everybody else does.
So the week 17 thing is the same thing.
All the money is in week 17. So once I reach a point similar
to, okay? I decided on Alexander Madison.
I decided on these first six picks in my draft now, what do
I, how do I decide that gives me the best chance to win this
turn? This game, that we're playing
this game and like, we don't have to.
Like if you don't like the payout structure, that's fine.
Like don't play, but this is the game that we're playing, and
it's all that money is there. So you should make your Ins
after that fact accordingly. What do you think about this
question? Because I don't do you have a
good example for this? Eric Josh says, what about when
the ATP is influenced by week? 17 considerations already kit?
I don't know if I can spot one that specifically, due to week
17. No, because it's awesome.
House probably is because people want to Stack around those
late-round guys that are like part of those really popular
game Stacks. I imagine that KJ, KJ Handler
Katie, What're those guys are all going to be steamed up as he
going ahead of time Patrick now because he's still no several
rounds under God's. Damn.
Well, please Tim Patrick hardly fits into that because he goes,
I mean, this is Tim patches Autumn and he goes, he goes
pretty high. But they never like brother goes
higher than he might like, well, although, those are games.
Those are specific games that doesn't.
We're not talking about the week, 17 is not about spotting
right now. The game on New Year's Day 2023.
That's going to score the most points.
It's about Korra Dating from within, right?
If I take AJ, Brown, Pat and I talked about Pat came on one of
my shows the other a week ago. And we talked about man,
actually in week 17, that that Eagles Saints game looks kind of
gross, which sucks because we were really excited about the
Eagles. But that doesn't mean don't take
Eagles, but like Chris olave, or whatever, or whoever ends up
being the second running back on the scene.
So you tell me who it is, right? G.
Miss those guys aren't getting steamed.
It's just a correlation thing. It's like if I Look, this guy
when I get to this round and I'm in a structure that requires a
wide receiver. I take Crystal Ave and that one
or I take Jarvis Landry and that one even though I don't really
care about those guys, you've already got it - see yep.
You major busy. At the end of the season that
there's going to be some games that are way more correlated
than other games, which I'm not saying like I still should be
the case but like not even. So I think the shoe things one
people are like I'm going to stack up the bills bangle, you
know? Bill's, Bangles Chiefs, Broncos,
the LA Boulders, couple games are like those are enticing just
out the gate. People might be like, I'm going
to try to stack up the game but then also if you get a chief
you're like you're getting a Bronco like that's one that
you're not going to not, you know, you're going to make an
effort, too many correlate that one.
Whereas if you get a panther, maybe you don't bother trying to
prioritize a buck or whatever it is.
So I think right? Don't you think that like just
naturally so maybe a pivot off that is like, Making more of an
effort to prioritize many stacks across the board rather than the
ones that are going to be like super heavily correlate problem.
Hmm. Well, that's a but there's a
bunch of specific questions of our games about questions about
like specific. Like Casey says, we sure we want
to put our faith and we Vegas week, 17, total severe just hit
that? No, this is this is the exact
point that we aren't trying to identify which game is the best.
There's one thing we can predict, we know which teams are
playing and we know that correlation is a factor.
Does not matter which game you should just be correlating the
pears. I literally have zero bias on
what I'm not going after. Just the team's I think are
gonna have a 50 plus Point team total.
I mean, even think to it on a week-to-week basis in DFS, the
chalk players end up coming from the highest.
Projected total games, you know, in Dallas and Arizona are
playing and it's a 55 point total.
That's where all the chalk concentrates, but how many times
do we see a team? Take it down with a 48 point.
Total game a 46-point like that's what we're Doing here.
We can't predict won't be 70. Yeah we just been predict the
correlation even a DFS in a given week.
We don't know what game is gonna blow.
I mean remember no late last year when Rex Burkhead went off
and Houston LEC well, the money like 11:10 won, all the money
playing, both Justin Jackson, Rex Burkhead, I mean that was
smart as hell the. But even on a one-week sample,
when we know what the teams Pass rates, are we know what the
matchups are. We know who's injured?
We know what everything's going to be.
We're still not right. That's not a football works.
It's like sometimes the game just shoot out sometimes In
early pick six. There's a, you know, a schematic
thing that the team saw and they get a lot more pass, having
whatever. Obviously, you can't predict
that in June. I mean that's like a writing
drafting much, but I can hear you guys, says, 45 minutes and
figure out what the hell. You guys are saying, but it
doesn't stick in. You got to be way more
comfortable with uncertainty. I say that when you're doing
this, you are be drafts and everything.
Like, people are not comfortable with uncertainty, with
uncomfortability like stack used in Jacksonville.
I don't know boss. Alec is a, he's being serious.
He's being serious, I know, he's being serious.
Go for it. Like, like, why can't that game?
Shootout? That's, that's the bigger
question. Why to that point?
Where is it? Here's a, here's a, here's a
piggybacking on that. You get to the 16th round and
you went robust running back. So it's wide receiver time,
right? 16?
17, 18. Theoretically, these guys are
sick Erica. Yeah, that's true.
You're right, you're right. But you so you drive.
Because you're already dead or you're saying you would happen?
Yes, bust is the key part of that phrase but you need wide
receivers, right? Your whatever, your structure
is, you need wide receivers in these.
These late rounds that game is / is perfect and you can plan
ahead for that. You can be like, okay I get to
this spot. Guess what?
John mechi Nico Collins. Welcome to the team in the
sixteenth round or whatever. And then rub in Jordan Brevin,
Jordan is available late. If you still want to ride the
visca train, he's back there. I like type, I'm Drafting is a
Jones right? There's a fucking fucking Dan
Arnold doing it. Get you want to get super crazy?
You want like but there's options right?
I don't give a shit about the names.
There's options for you to figure out a little backdoor
orbit Jones. He was really late Martin.
I don't want to really like Jones but he goes, I don't
either. I don't either.
But you know what I mean? Like, it makes sense like those
just do that. It's like, I don't.
Does anyone actually like, I'm probably not going to watch,
Houston Jacksonville game, but it's like that.
Little like, when you get to that point and your team has
dictated that sounds like it should be Thursday night, right?
I hope at the fact that you don't know.
Yeah. Off the street.
I've eaten. You had one job memorized.
The schedule. You don't have to memorize the
days and then yeah, yeah, yeah. You gotta know, if that's a
short week, you know, defense has been arrested.
Exactly, exactly. I wasn't doing anything about
difficulties of people. Cowboys Titans on that Thursday
FYI. Pat okay.
Oh jeez. I don't know even more reason to
fade. Derrick Henry J Wiki.
I don't know how to say his name but he said if there's
absolutely three games are getting steamed, if they're all
valid rough equally roughly right now, that means it's deaf
plus EV to fade between each all games, but I fade not fade, but
not reach to build stacks from the when I always like to talk
about is building Our teams from the back to the front.
And I think most people especially with these games
build their teams from the front to the back.
So they start in round one and you're like I got to March Ace.
Boom. Bills Bengal stack, right?
I'm gonna take whatever I'm gonna get my Josh Allen, or I'm
going to get my job or I'm going to get my gay Davis, I'm going
to get digs whatever. However, it works out in your
draft. They force it from the front and
I think you should do the opposite.
Just kind of Let it Flow To You. Right?
If you know if you take Chase and digs fall see which never
happens? But if it happens, yeah, sure of
course. But you don't just like, oh now
I got to take Josh Allen. And then in the third, now I got
to take D Higgins and now I'm going to reach around for
jobber. Oh, that's how you lose.
Even though you targeted a good game, imagine how triggered
everyone would be. If we said, you can't take stuff
digs in round one because he's the chalk week, 17 kids down.
That's what I was going to say is I mean they're all good
offenses. They probably going to be good
ovens is a week 7. There's not like a legit reason
for us to be fading them this far in advance either, but I
really like the way I just put that because my answer to that
question and I would be less knowledgeable than any of you
but it would be that you have 18 roster spots, 20 rostros,
whatever they are on these graphs these days in DFS.
Like the question is sort of assuming sort of like in DFS
what game do we fade? Because it's the chalky game.
You can stack like four games in.
Yeah, and I'm the best ball. Raft is my point.
So you can have this and Houston Jacksonville, you know, you
probably still want exposure to those three games in some form.
But like you said, Eric, you're not.
You don't need an S, like go straight for a full game stack
from round, 2 3 4, you can take chase, you can wind up, taking
gate Davis, and that's your little mini correlation you hope
that. When that game shot a little
bit, those guys, both have multiple touchdown games.
They're the big parts of that game but it's not like a the
huge big, you know, winner you have multiple other plays, you
have Houston Jack right? You have other stuff going on,
right? You just kinda her and
Hollywood. On that team to.
And that with the Drake London, bring back our whatever.
As your, as your quote-unquote main main.
It's like in a DFS, I can DFS we use, S, I call, you know, it's a
calm secondary correlations, I'm doing that across all my best
ball teams, that's actually probably, what takes more of my
brain energy in a draft is like, I took the Andre Swift, okay?
I got the either, put them in the queue, right?
Or in the back of my head, I got the Bears there.
I don't need to stack them just because I took DeAndre Swift but
I'm just thinking about When a tear comes.
Okay, this tier is Darnell. Mooney Brandin Cooks, Rashad
Bateman on this team. I'm going to take Darnell moon,
right? Because I took the Andre Swift
in the in the second round. If I took, if I took Nick Chubb
in the second round and we get to a certain point, I'm gonna
think about Terry McClure, Noor, Jehan Dotson or whatever.
It's just figuring out those little nuances.
That is probably where the EV is, is a bunch of fucking mini
correlations and I fucking hope. So.
But I do think like it probably is because if you think about
like, okay, let's say that bills.
Bengals game blows up and you need to like, you just have to
have Chase in week 17, totally plausible.
Like if you don't have to chase, you're not winning it period.
But then gave Davis also scores a touchdown, as a good game,
most teams bubbling up also have gave Davis attached, but you
could potentially have DeAndre Swift.
Who, let's say he's a really popular hero running back
counter, just got a really good article and wrote a bit about
how that particular structures. Suffers from, you know,
potentially chalky running backs making it because it looks like
you have a hero running back build that there can be a lot of
similar Heroes that, you know, happen to have the right weeks
in the playoffs to get you to week 17.
So you've got to kind of chalky running back potentially, in
DeAndre Swift got this chalky game, stack, it goes off, but
then you've got Mooney and if Mooney beats Gabe Davis, your
that could be it. So it's like those little
meanies. I think not only We just lost
Pat Saudi. I was wondering if that was a,
this is middle of a great point. I still have no idea.
This is your best is like people who and I'm
guilty of this myself like oh, when I'm trying to get a cheap
Tennessee bring back on Dallas. I find myself going for Hassan
Haskins the mystery box rookie today I am Taken John traill
Hillier, you know, I never take him but it was just this idea of
like if 90% of our stacking cohort is going to be taking the
same player in these Pockets because of correlation, it's
like how can we get unique there?
Because what is the honest difference in probability of
Hilliard hitting verse Haskins, right?
It's probably like a 50/50 honestly, who could be the
backup. If someone got hurt and yet,
we're drafting it. As if it's 90%, Haskins and 10%
Hilliard. Can we talk about how you guys
can? Related your back lights to the,
to the guy didn't realize this. I didn't realize it matches my
shirt. You see, you see the Razor Ramon
shirt? I literally correlated mine to,
to my, to my t-shirt. So not to paint.
That was fun. We're getting a little bit over
the over the correlation. Jump of the shot wasn't Globe
row. Then one thing I was just
thinking about going back to the 0 RB analogy with all This I do
think there is a firm tie-in with it.
That goes back to like, humility based drafting, which one thing.
One thing I love about correlating with week 17, is it
leads me to Natural diversification instead of being
every time on the clock being like I'm taking visca.
Take it Sky War by favorite guy by favorite guy.
It's like no, I don't think I'm better than the market at
picking players at ATP so I'll let the little correlation boost
break those ties for me. Whereas if you're saying no, I'm
better than the market, I know better.
I'm gonna identify by The League winner at every single pick.
That's a non humility based approach.
And so I think understanding my only edge here is knowing that
correlation matters. Not only do you get natural
diversification but it's a humility based way to draft
knowing, we don't know but how can we benefit?
I would add to that. That's an extreme way of
approaching it because you're saying you're only edges
correlation. I think you can still have
player targets and opinions and still do everything that you
guys. Yeah.
For sure. Yeah, those comes I will say,
um, those come first in the hierarchy.
Be clear. If there if you are drafting a
player, you get to the 12th round and there's a guy you have
one or two tiers above that's available, right?
It's just like in DFS. You talked about earlier, Pete.
I think you said, you know, mentioned the like, projection,
boost. That's what correlation is.
So if you are making a DFS team and you got the two, similarly
projected players and one correlated with your lineup and
one did not there would be a projection boost built into your
projections so that that the player that related would
project higher on that lineup, right?
Because they predict that there's a correlation boost, you
should do the same thing and best ball but that doesn't mean
that the correlation outweighs the projection on the other guy
either, right? If there's a guy who you have
into your to at wide receiver and we're on to tear for that
guy could correlate, but he could still be a worst pick.
So I understand. So that's kind of Player thing.
When you're stacking Rams Chargers, you still don't take
van Jefferson because no matter how much it is rejected.
Jennifer, So you can't, that's why that.
And that is how been ended up with 90% 22 at?
Well, I kind of like to do I do because this brings up kind of a
point of the diversification thing.
And like one thing I've been thinking through because I'm
kind of like team, I don't care, I'm totally fine drafting my
guys, you know, try to get money p-value.
Try to do all the mini correlations and all that but
like being overweight doesn't bother me so much but if I'm
going to go over weight, right? You risk having a bad year?
Because you like, it's like I'm if I'm right, I'll have a great
year if I'm wrong. Could have a bad year.
One thing that makes me nervous about not diversifying as much
as some others, is that like this slate is a year away from
another slate and it does feel like we've kind of leveled up
the conversation and pretty meaningful way from just last
year. So like like between week 15 and
week 16 DFS slates. There's not like a Upgrade in
the understanding of how to play GPS from the field.
But there might be a another sizable gain in the strategy.
The tactics that everyone's using in drafting these
tournament basketball teams from 2022 2023.
Like I could see potentially popular sites having like,
tournament basketball rankings compared to like or like, you
know, tournament best ball tools.
Mean you guys are rolling out a bunch of tools and Spike Lee
like all that stuff. Making people like way sharper
at drafting this these teams they already are.
I feel like they're going to be even more next year.
So like I don't know. How do you like to think through
that? Like a part of me doesn't want
to like make as many players specific stands this year
because if I do happen to be wrong.
Now I'm entering a room next year that's filled with like way
more sharps. I got to two replies, one is
people are stubborn and stupid, that's like the number-one rule
to life. And that's the number one rule.
I've been working in DFS and as a towel or whatever, I'm not the
world's best DFS player. I've been able to have some
success. I mostly just listen to other
smart people right? Pete talks to Brick.
I listen to Brian, I listened to two blender.
I listen to Shit, my money, Adam share.
I listened to the people in my little bubble that are smarter
than me and better than me at this.
And and then I have my own, my own takes on different things.
It doesn't matter what I say. It doesn't Brian Hooper is one
of the best DFS players on the planet.
He literally does a show where he talks a lot about his
process. People don't give a shit.
People are going to do what they're going to do vers up.
I don't remember what it's called though.
I don't remember what it's called but people do not.
Not get you could, you could lay out exact and, and maybe people
likely, like, right Liam's getting into the content space,
maybe he does. Maybe he is just better at this
than all of us, he's laying out. How does doubtful?
He doesn't even know how to create a YouTube channel.
It's fucking people Danny's in the thread game.
Now I can't, he's getting me a little bit, he's getting muted,
I think it's getting bad, but like you could lay out.
Exactly. I literally built tools on.
Rota Grinders like slate. Was the main one.
That was my baby. It was like the first one that
like looked at all historical slates.
Exactly to this ran simulations of of slates.
That told you to your point on, like the defense Captain thing.
We were like you can't play this defense.
You can't play this. I'm thinking of Showdown but
like you can't play this captain and Showdown you if you can't do
it, you're it's a massively - Evie thing to do and people
would be like, nope. I know better, I don't care.
And that that would still be the highest own Captain.
Right now we've evolved a little bit in the DFS space but I think
we're so far away from from that, invest ball.
And then the only other thing I was going to say is to Pete's
Point earlier, this kind of thing is exactly how you don't
have huge stands on players. I actually am, more Pro stands
on individual players probably than like some of our the people
that we talked to frequently. But this is how I how it doesn't
happen because right. I have my, you know, I am like
fading, Derrick Henry Never so I get a little Overexposed to
Justin Jefferson but like there's 12 Packers for me to
take. Like I'm not getting over
exposed to any of those guys because I'm just kind of letting
the draft come to me. I think this is actually an
awesome way to diversify your portfolio without even you're
not even trying to diversify it just happens naturally.
Yeah and there is two. I also think it just, you know,
how we all like to approach fantasy is like it.
These are puzzles, right? And we're trying To solve new
puzzles and it's like trying to figure out a new game type.
And there is just a group of people, a large group of people
that just want to select guys. They like their favorite players
on the team's, they like build over.
They want and have a chance to win some money.
It's so there's probably just this natural resistance in the
same way. We're like, oh man I don't want
to go up against brick and DFS in these guys running.
Yeah we're like the middle spot between just gut in Sims where
it's like we know how to play the game.
We just Have big enough brains or the tools to actually execute
what we do. We need to do, but we understand
we need to do it. And so I understand other people
are just like, fuck this, just let me draft a team.
The chat is is crushing right now.
They said so many people, just think they can have the perfect
draft. I KB, I know better than 0.
B doesn't work. I tried it one time and it
didn't work. I mean, just play the best place
guys. Thank you.
Realize that like, just dropped all the good players that do
good. If you go back and look all of
the good players have the highest Win rates.
That's how you win a battle. Yeah.
Dropped all the good players correlate, the the 20 plus
percent win rates. Then you're gonna win.
I take it attack on this question.
Say you repeat you do 30, drafted Route 28 10 ones to the
other two. Well, this is the type of
medical. Yeah, it's been tough out there
guys. Have eaten naturally, force
myself, dude, you're with you killing me posting my my my
whole Brant, like all of my life.
Drafts. I get 101 or 102 I keep doing
hyper fragile builds. I have like four percent zero or
be built on stream because everyone in the chat jumps in
with me and takes all the receivers.
And so, the brand is just an absolute shambles right now.
If you take an Eddie Lacy 2.0 101 yet, not as you hear that
from you are not here. Is that not your fournette are
born bad yourself? It's the I don't think it's not
going to be it would be smart to take Nagi at 10.
One because it won't be a unique combo when he's going at three
well-known. Yeah.
Yeah, I mean literally the Steelers are like we're reducing
his workload. That all right.
Should we put some of these ideas on their feet and hop in a
puppy draft? I can see the chats getting
restless. All right, good luck.
If you're trying to get in this draft looks like no jeez.
Of course, bags. In the here, goodness, we got
Nick FF links. We got the 110 110, 110 is fun.
There's not, there's not ship Chasers in here.
Really, it's not a friends, and I don't think we might have been
the, the last one to register, but we might actually get to
take some receivers. It was packed with specs.
Just spamming the puppy. He's in here.
Every one of the next like 12 puppies.
Spags is he he's like made it his life's mission to Max this
puppy. And I just can't wait until they
drop another one in about a week.
And he just realizes that, this isn't sustainable.
He's gonna burn out, he's in a burnout hard.
We will talk shit about whoever. If you're willing to send us
$20, not to talk shit about them.
I'm happy to go down this road. Steve like yeah, that's Tony.
That's Tony. Who won the DK Millie last year
before that fades in here to sort of toy bus to stop stop.
Yeah, about right now. Hmm he actually looks fat
though. Nausea weight not nausea.
Looks like Nagi Lenny looks a little bit less fat but he he he
said like sometimes it's hard to keep my like offseason wait
where I want it like healing that which is what I want to
draft in the second round, dude. I mean I
was hope saying thats pegs in the other one do is multi.
Yeah, it's good and all that daily.
It's beautiful. All right, the 110 here.
What are we thinking? This is, this is definitely one
of the weirder spots. I think even outside of ship
chasing drafts this year, like that one night, is an feels
pretty weird to me. Mmm, this is where I just
dropped it from in that puppy. I accidentally brushed her for
the big, dog. Fifth, I took I think I took
Dalvin cook. And then I got the bow on the
rap. I've intruded album yet.
I haven't taken Dalvin yet. So the only later will have to
have a choice, which made me what a fucking surprise.
We did that literally last week with Leone so no, this is the
spot. I'm adamant about either devonté
or Kelsey here either. I like Devonte, I've been doing
Devonte just because I like those other Elite tight, end
prices so much that I'm passing out of your.
It's exactly where I'm happy to leave.
In into the bit though, what I will say is Kelsey getting
really tight end Kelsey, you get the elite tight end.
Like everybody has the same concerns about his age and stuff
but like, Tyreke is gone. This dude could like set the
roof on fire at tight end so I'm actually trying to get
overweight on on him real quick covers IV this D Bo Adams start
as is so chalk but I still love it so much, I'm I'm fine.
With it. Yes, I mean this is one of those
classic examples of you're literally taking the highest
available wide receiver based on ATP.
It just so happens. They're playing week 17, baby.
There's no other pick. That is even in the tier, with
Debo in my opinion. None of the other receive great.
I think our I would not take any of these running backs.
In that tear, I would not put Mark Andrews.
I think Swift some Like yeah, I'm not saying it's not the
draftable I'm saying like in, I don't know, I think people
should be above that kid be probably the next player I would
take to Pat. This is my point.
Have you seen the trail Ansa hype from Camp?
It's not. Yeah, yeah, I said, what is he
got your strides as a player and, and I hope you got, I hope
you didn't smashing him and drafts because he is, he is, but
it's the steam is getting these get, he's going to settle.
Bye hurts. If Jimmy G gets traded for sure,
100, 100. I think so.
Can we try out that the mini correlation is the EV move and I
mean, I don't know that you want to necessarily not correlate
this game anymore, but don't you think everyone who has this
start? As made sure to get more gas in
this game. So now we go to other games and
we just have these two for this game.
This is what you keep, you keep building your name and of course
that's different. But he's like an eighth or ninth
round pick but you you keep building your team, right?
So whoever comes wrong here. I'm what I'm suggesting is
intentionally, swerving away from Lance and building a
different different play now. Only having the atoms Debo many.
Yeah, I'm totally, I'm open, I'm open to that.
I guess I'm, we don't have to force Lance, but I mean it's,
it's late. But if land is intentionally not
correlating, the new correlation plot like this, this is super
super quick. This is a real thing at that in
our bubble. So like we have a bike week
Discord. Right.
Pete has a Discord. This, these are all the biggest
Grinders that exist in this entire space, right?
The the enters or whatever like that.
This is not a thing. That the normal person thinks
about how many people in this draft are thinking about, like,
oh, I got two guys that correlate in week, 17, they
don't even know the fucking week 17 schedule.
We have a ticker for IT on this, on the stream.
Like the like people don't even think I've asked exactly don't
even think that deeply. So we're just in this bubble
where we're like I don't want to overthink it.
I'm yeah. To the point.
You don't want. No I'm not.
Teaching on Lance or whatever or car or whatever but you don't
need to like totally over like we're not to the DFS meta yet
where it's like they know he's jock and I know he's jock.
So is he not going to be chalk like that?
That doesn't exist yet in best ball?
In my opinion? I think you're right and 99.9%
of teams will not make week 17. So I do think like if you don't
feel like we're in an environment like you break ties
towards not In that environment. Just because like your this team
isn't going to be in that final anyway like the vast vast
majority of the time this teams like not even in it so it's more
like you're going to maybe Bubble Up one and then you want
that team structured really really well.
Let's see this, this board. Yeah, this is like a, this is a
fairly normal draft. This isn't a wacko piss in
yellow draft. So what are we?
What are you looking at? I have a tick.
I don't know if Ben's gonna agree with it, but we'll see
what ceased. Well, that was it Hollywood is
my guy right there actually / /. Even / DJ more, but I'm cool
with the rest of these guy. Like, I like waddle or more a
lot. Do you guys graduate fine second
bottle over more? I mean, I think while it's
getting overly disrespected. Yeah, I'm into that.
Okay, let's do it. Yeah I mean I got I got waddle
on a draft the other day. I mean Right around here.
I think I got them at 41 because it was, I had two, three, four
turn, which man, it seems like a little too much of a discount on
him in the draft. I just did.
I got Waller in the same spot and actually got Marquis Brown
on the rap, and I do like that Marquis Brown called because
that then sets you up to go get Kyler.
So that, that team ended up being a Pilar Lansky because I
got Debo, it's actually kind of similar to this team.
Yeah, so I like Marky. I mean, I'm breaking ties to
some ties to Marquise because I'm like, I want to go, we're on
the clock break from the mean, what it's Deonte or Judy here,
right? Either one.
Either one's for, I mean, we could go kid'll as well.
I know, it's a bit of a reach, but while there's a I prefer, I
prefer to push it. Push it like me bolete Debo.
Yeah, so that's some of them Dion taste, totally fine.
I was just going to say, okay. So like it.
Fourth round pick. Isn't it crazy?
Isn't it crazy that? He's a fourth round pick.
I don't have a ton. I was just looking at 9% Deonte,
but it's just great. He's falling.
So like, he's the perfect guy where people get really caught
up in like early draft season and like I wasn't really
drafting him. He was like kind of like closer
to like the early. Third ish type, you know, like
three like early to mid third. Now, I mean shit.
I mean, the 403. And like, if we wouldn't have
taken him, we don't even know. You would have guaranteed to go
in the next couple. He's gonna be a mid 4th round
pick. Soon.
So he's just the perfect guy. I think to kind of start to
scoop up, but I was just going to say I'll Kyler Falls.
Can anyone understand understand why?
Kyler's falling? Is it just the Hopkins thing.
But like I'm trying to get Hollywood, dude, Hollywood here
with with Kyler in the fifth sixth is like gold to me.
I think it's because Carla didn't have a very strong
post-injury part of the season last year.
You know he was a meeting lazy, he didn't look for he was amazed
and the artist, he was like that.
MVP like literally that FrontRunner MVP and then he
finally saw what his ceiling could be.
Like that makes me want to bet on him more than next year.
Like okay, it was hurt when he was playing bad.
All right. I'll write that off a little
bit, you know. Yeah.
And they add Marquis Brown who yeah, good, good girl, perfect
here, which is what they need is, the perfect.
The perfect fit. but the Jets a little bit, we got a sad,
comment DJ clear number one hello we could have taken DJ
more there it would have been an easy pick I'm not gonna laugh
and I was fine with waddle over DJ Stein.
Want that on the record. I was fine with it.
I also I take, but I want to be with her.
I take I take DJ moreover, Jalen waddle there, but I think
they're listening to that. They're like to sit there, like
so similar to me. Yeah, yeah.
I kind of mix it. I'll take waddle, I don't mind.
Take them all over more. I also think I'm sure you guys
have better reasons for taking moreover waddle, but just in
general, I did this arbitrary who's the wide receiver one eye
because I've gotten that one eye.
Take T. Higgins in the second.
Why are you taking the Bangles number two wide receiver?
It's I mean we can get back to the piece of the pie and how big
the pie conversation is but we just we have to be done with
what those meaningless. Designations mean also like, oh
Dom, its side what by what margin like T.
Higgins was like he had a higher Target rate then Jamar Chase
last year, Chaser and more routes but like they scored more
touchdowns, right? It was very thin margins about
who like that. The number one versus number
two. There 1A 1B, that's a great
Point. There's a few different good
ones but another big one is Jalen waddle is a second.
Like the second I perceive you want to Target and there's
contingent value in that as well.
Whereas Tyree killed, mrs. Time, Jalen waddle immediately
looks like an absolute star. I mean, he was amazing last year
when he was filming guy. There are again, we're not
trying to predict too much. There are a lot of scenarios
where in week 17, I mean, any scenario where, Tyrese now the
field, obviously, but Jalen waddle is on Umber one and then
is looking like an absolute star tip.
But Pat you said earlier in the offseason he could even have
Target in this year, right? Like it wouldn't be that
surprising. Now what if Tyreke opens up the
offense and Jalen waddle is still just Jalen wad of last
year but now instead of Mac Holland's running real standing
outside, it's tight. It's Tyree kill right?
Let's see here. There's also the other thing
where like if you look at wide receiver scoring like think
about the the FPC play alternate that we were doing like it was
so tilting because we made a big stain on see Higgins and then T
Higgins had this incredible super stuck the Super Bowl but
like he had such a bad stretch before that that RT against
things were already dead. Yeah.
They were got em like our chairs were all kind of in the wrong
things and all that but like you you need a tea Higgins.
Like T Higgins. Ultimately was he had such a big
week like that could easily. Week 17, it could be week 16 you
know like what if the agency has 50 points in week 16.
But my guys, when the positional needs in the correlation lineup,
can you pass this test here? I don't, I don't know the
schedule Dobbins. I hope it's diamonds markers.
Pittsburgh. Yeah, week 17.
Yes. I mean, I love res Hall to if
anyone wants to take brief halt. Smash him for diamonds, man.
Dobbins is a better pick than briefs all.
They're both good pics. They're probably very good.
It's the same tier. Like Eric was saying earlier,
yeah, and the correlation is. Yeah, it's the same too.
This is he had to get the duchess.
Settle. A nice that is nice.
Isn't it? See, this is why the week 17
correlation thing. Matters is like, it just Falls
to you if we didn't take JK Dobbins at the three, four turn.
We took him at ATP. Alright, this is a little bit
more of a choose-your-own-adventure here.
How you guys feeling? Her lies and more lies and more
lies. And more works for me, although
Elijah more ultimate amun-ra and try to get Fields later.
Yeah, that's true. I don't mind amun-ra, a lot,
it's definitely. Elijah more almond around for
me. Let's go, Elijah.
Yeah, let's go Elijah. I'm kind of excited but Elijah
more I'm kind of excited about Elijah more.
Should I kind of think the we just did the Jalen waddle Tyree
kill thing and like I'm not calling Elijah more and Garrett
Wilson Tyree kill and Jalen waddle but like if Elijah more
is as good as he showed last year, I understand the Zach
Wilson concerns. He was awesome.
Elijah more was awesome last year if he just is that good and
the offense now has briefs all and Garrett Wilson.
And actual tight ends that can that can do something in the
passing game, like, it's just now, can Jack Wilson, be
competent. And that's like, he doesn't have
to be awesome. He just needs to be competent.
The thing I worry about with, with Elijah more and like one of
the reasons I like wide receiver.
So much, is that I don't need to worry about the coaches.
The coaches can't really screw this up for me, as long as I'm
drafting really good wide receivers, but they can screw up
this one. Because Corey Davis is like, are
they going to play chord Davis over?
In some to wide receiver sets. Are they going to mix in Braixen
Barrios a little bit like the rat?
It's like one of those situations where CD lamb the CD
lamb, right? This happened playing examine
the city. It's exactly the city land,
where it's like, dude, just put them on the field.
Why isn't he? He's running 73% of the routes
that he was your busy. He's our best player and yeah
he's he's not even running 80% of routes.
Yeah. It's and you'll see that like,
that's not so that that's what worries me and they think The
get Wilson pick indicates, you know maybe they do see him as
more of a slot which is one of the concerns coming in last
year. He didn't look like that.
He look like he was a real, you know, can do everything type of
wide receiver but I would not be, it would be like a million
example of coaches being shown something that counters, what
they may have thought originally, and then going with
what they thought originally instead.
But that, that scenario is one, where Garrett Wilson is an
absolute smash at his ATP. I think there is an element here
where Like Elijah is being bought into a lot heavier by the
market for a reason. He showed he was good last year.
Gary Wilson could also just be bad, right?
Yeah. I'm making an assumption that
Gary Wilson playing into wide receiver sets, which could be a
completely wrong, right? I don't even think about that.
That's what I mean with the with the draft Capital to its the
right assumption but, but it could be wrong.
Yeah, you never know. I mean at the end of the day, we
the draft capital is Very clearly a predictor but also
like this is the Shanahan tree. Who Brandon, are you get is not
playing to start the year and Tracer and they tried it up,
talk to Dante, Pettis was the second coming, you know, I was
drafting duct tape medicine. The eighth round on draft, like
it was a, you know, I was I was on drugs as many times.
I was taking Dante Pettis and the dude just got gone.
My God, my dog is growling like a bear.
Dog. All right so here's what he woke
up and there's all these fucking lights and darkness, his
brother. His brother is over like in
front of this. One of these lights over here.
So he'll it looks freaky as shit.
Like, there's like light he looks almost like a predator or
something. Where Where there's lights
coming from. I think it really he's freaked
him out. He's just pissed.
Elijah board. Doesn't correlate with anyone on
our roster. Yeah, we're gonna talk.
Yeah, this is Noah fan. It's no offense.
This is another thing to you. I like it.
I like it waddle. Plays the Patriots.
Yes they do. Ship horn plays the Box.
So we probably should take a DJ more in hindsight, just purely
off of that. Been, you guys are taking this
correlation thing way too far. All right, I'm like weeks behind
you guys like literal weeks with everything's moving.
Like, every hour. I was gonna just say real quick.
Someone I do think, you know, hurts wouldn't have been, you
know, a bad pick by any means. But like one thing, looking at
all the wide receivers we were taken.
We have all late. Late, quarterback, stack
options. Whereas if we go hurts, Devon to
Smith went right in front of us, were basically forced into like
triple tapping hurts Goddard Mi Sanders just to get any real
exposure to the Eagles there. So to me, it's kind of an Easy
Pass. Yep.
The Saints aren't they're also not fun because you're kind of
that forced into a lot of a Jarvis Landry, which is all
right. Who do you like for your spot?
We could do Renfro. Get the correlation.
Could you can't block say someone make us.
Think about it. I think I would take CH so I
just can't do this too. I think Ben I think Kenneth
Walker might still be hanging around.
Okay Pat got bullied into CH last time I kind of do it 12
again I know I listen I would have I would have I don't want
to do that. Yeah, I don't I don't want to do
be the Leone to this uncorrelated CA It's the week
after a correlated. See a, yeah, but Denver, we
have, we've had this fucking discussion.
That Denver is available later. We can get our cage, a ham.
Why don't you just tell Burt, oh, Alberto whatever I really
don't like, It's like this kind of you know
I give only taking them a couple times, I've got like a couple
things that will sway me and kind of get me to change my
opinion little bit. One of them is went Ron Siegel
starts comparing guys to Jamal Charles that generally gets me
to take them a little bit more. So yeah I started taking a walk
a little bit. Look, Sean.
I love song, but I feel like he's on drugs.
Jamaal Charles is if you know, there's the guy that won him,
the time, I know that year and it's like honestly his favorite
running back of all time. So that's that's a big
comparison. If you're what you guys think
about the Seahawks, do you think, are you like there's a
lot of sentiment right around them about how bad they're going
to be, are you just like ignoring that and maybe they get
bigger or something like that to make it better?
Or how are you kind of approaching them?
Because like I like the Jedi like Elijah I like Garrett
Wilson. I like all these guys briefs
whatever but like I really still even with our correlation talk
for a half-hour I struggled to click some of these seahorses
Ox, well, I struggled, because one thing that's unfolding here
in real time, is spag setting up a massive backdoor bid Equity,
Drew locks tax, because he loves the Seattle, he gets that caps,
lock it. I know he's just sitting at
home. Knowing wait to see the Uproar.
When I draft through lock in the 18th, he's okay.
Luck's. Not going to start.
Drew lock. Yes he's got his percentages are
down because he's done a million drafts but it was he was coming
in hot early that's gonna suck. I'm sorry bags.
Bags, you do you do exactly what you're doing, smoked you right
out into the chat. How are you been chatting when
you're multi-tabling 9 draft? All right, so I got a trivial
while we're waiting for pickup. We maybe.
Should we take a trail ants in the maybe that was probably All
right, you guys know who Dante Pettis plays for now.
Yes, he's on. He was on the Giants last year
but the Bears. That's right, he plays.
Oh yeah, yeah. All the shitty washout wide
receivers are on the Bears and valus Jones and Village.
Jones is older than all of them. Did the Bears wide.
Receiver room is just a list of like third round.
Rookie pecs. I got cut after what?
Yeah yours. Yeah.
Equanimity is seen brown like there's yep, many dudes, all the
guys we talked ourselves into all the times that these guys
Pat talked me into in the third round of all my Dynasty, rookie
draft and now they're all on the fucking pairs.
They even more Byron bringle. I mean good biscuit next year.
Yeah. So we definitely have an
interesting build here with the ones he positions for sure.
I would love to squeak out at least a to build from one of
them. I kind of regret not taking
Lancer. You guys on that quarterbacks
fine. I think we'll be fine at
quarterback who needs Hunter Run 40 when you got to want to add.
AKA 40 percent Target share. We do have a million options at
quarterbacks quarterbacks. Fine, Thai tender.
Tynan might be a little sketchy. What our daughter this Goddard
fall man. Yeah we'll see what this does.
Yeah got it would have been absolute smash.
I think yes. I mean, I'm still open.
I'm still open to knocks here. What do you guys think?
Oh, there you go. I think, I think we just take
car. Yeah, I do too.
We got the double already. This guy has two behind us.
Oh yeah. This guy's a wild card and he
has Waller. We probably shouldn't mess her.
Yes, we won wider wait. He has one wide receiver and
Kelsey and Waller a 512 Bill Maher.
And really, just get all the guys.
Oh my goodness. Harris at 111, guys.
Let's just a sec. Take some time with Damien.
Yeah, I would like to announce every single player on our team
currently has a week 17 correlation right now, so this
is how it's done. Did you hear that?
Josh North. I really wish I really wish you
could just like Fast, forwarded to the like week, 14 missed
Iman, finishing eighth place. You can see how many points you
would have put up in. All right.
This is no shit. So I'm we're like super, super
close to finishing this like exposures tool and stuff.
We're building out like a sweat, like a weight, a tool to like
sweat your teams. So like that would be literally
be possible is like so we're going to feel like we have to
jump. We have projections that we have
results, right? So like we buy that data.
So, like, for every single team that you have, I have a
projection for every single one of those players, and then
obviously have the past results. So, like, you could see
line-by-line each demon, scroll down to your 12th Place teams.
Like right, I drafted this 0 or B, team is supposed to get
better as the year goes on. I drafted all these rookies on
that team and like, it's just destroying souls and like, week
12, but it's so far behind. Yeah, so far behind that.
It doesn't matter, it's our version of Sky Lansky bucks.
Like one of us week 17 correlation Bros needs to be
able to say but if we would have got there, we were billion like
we need that so bad. You like go like through your
gpp lineups after the day and go back and look at like old like 3
B 3 is that you had in like health, I just played this
summer, everyone does they say everyone at all?
I usually just close my lap as you go water.
The second child touchdown. I had this entered and then I
switched, it was gut-wrenching. See you still need to get there.
This this is the these are this is the chalk.
You know, argument against it. You still need to get there
thinking. This correlation drafting is
going over. Watch the thing that I've never
heard. Anyone articulate is what are
you gonna do? Strategically to get their
differently than what I'm doing? If I'm not hemorrhaging ATP
value are then. You're just saying, you're going
to pick players better than me. Like, I guess just tell me what
the strategy is to get there that I'm not doing because I
also would like to know that strategy.
Gee, I think I might like one when when people talk about it
Jan straight last year, when we would talk about, like, I would
say, I'm playing to try to win first place.
And other people would say, oh, I'm just trying to get as many
bullets into the final and like that sounds fine.
But no one could ever say, okay, what specifically are you doing
different than me right to get more bullets there and like know
what? Like it would usually be just
like three quarterbacks and I'm like, okay like that's fine, I
guess. Quarterbacks are three tight
ends is like your difference, whatever.
Because like, I'm taking a TD value, like we didn't reach on
anybody. We are not drafting a bad
structure. We're not doing anything on this
team worse than any team that is quote, unquote, trying to
advance, this team is perfectly set up to advance.
We just happen to also be on top of that building in little
correlations that help us in week 17.
So it's getting The Best of Both Worlds.
And I still do think I do agree like the the more like robust
onesie stuff 3, Ruby's three tight ends will help your
Advance rate out of weeks 1 through 14, but it's still
immediately kills you for the way.
The 15 16 17, you still have to win these mini uncorrelated
tournaments, where you're allocating resources at a onesie
position, where what you're getting above replacement isn't
really worth it, but I think you can maybe go more Elite at those
ones in positions. And that would help you get
through week 15 and 16, right? But your then once you get to
week 17, you would potentially, you know, have a harder.
I'm of having that really high score that you would need to
take down week 17. So I do think maybe that's a way
if you really want to get more bullets in but then you but that
comes directly at the cost of the more important week.
What do you guys think of get sticky here?
Get our friend. Yeah I like it it's in the chat
already just trying to play it a little close to the back
scratched Pi. What have looked at the schedule
while you guys were talking and figured out where we might want
to go next. So I just want you to read it.
You're on it. He needs the ticker he needs the
ticker in order to understand who Miami place.
So there's an obvious pick here then, right?
Yeah. With yes, it's true.
I mean if he wants to if you want something in the triple
tap. Yeah, go for it.
This is nice. I wrote that in the chat and I'm
so glad that it was actually, like a viable thing.
And I'm not just a complete idiot it real good signal.
As to why those are negatively. Exclusive Eric, how funny is it
that we were talking about like you don't have to take this too
far. You can backdoor your
correlations. We literally have the most
textbook correlated team the quarterback.
Yeah, it's kind of fun because the one, the one viewer wanted
us to give an example and this is like How you doing handed to
us? Like this is not a good example
of how to do it because it was this this literally happened to
me two weeks ago or something. So I do a Thursday show that's
like just strategy-based. I just dive into some specific
strategy thing. And I think I on that particular
Thursday, I talked about week 17 and then on the front on
Fridays, we do giraffes similar to like, Pete's this or Pete's
like Monday morning streams. And I literally said before, I'm
like, I'm gonna draft a 0r B team.
I was like, this is a 0, RB draft, if you want to join and
you want to make me look like an idiot.
Go ahead. I drafted, maybe the best 0r B
Team. I've drafted in, like two years
on the stream and it had to exactly like this every pic was
like, oh, I took Javonte. Hmm.
Here's mvs around after around after ATP, right?
This quarterback Habitrail ants Falls to me when I have So
Samuel like a round after everything just fell in together
perfectly, so it's beautiful. It's absolutely beautiful when
this, when this happens and it's also awesome because you get to
dunk on the people in the comments that are like a week,
17 is stupid. You're like, I'm getting weak 17
and my team still better than even still.
There's so many good stories. Nothing to do with this game.
Damien Harris, Jake a job as a cat Walker.
All going to score, first-half touchdowns and force.
They're correlated receivers to catch, but I'm so.
So pumped for this roster where I be this is kind of the perfect
spot because we were going to I was going to even say it was
going to be a weird combo. If Harris and Stevenson were
both on the board because I'm guessing we're all Stevenson
heads here. I'm kind of glad that they just
made that decision for us there. Yeah, we when I guys like about
the first-half touchdowns from Harris for him to get there.
Yes, that happened last year. Tonight, probably, as I have
three and then two, women room on drugs.
Scored a million points in week 17 last year.
I think I've taken some Damien just because like he can he
might be the goal line, back and happy PR that could be what you
need. So I've taken a little bit but
man. Yeah obviously wrote like Ramon
tree better. No one shot killer Jemaine
Damien falling out so much. Yeah.
We are. You handling, are you?
Are you kind of like starting the balance and that balance it
out a little bit after that? I'm not really, I would say
balancing it out because your mind race still.
Like every time I see Damion like I can wait like another
full round to go get her Mantra, think it's not like one of those
things where it's like, if I don't take Damien, I'll
definitely won't get from Andre either.
And in that case, I might be like, I'll take doing in here.
But, yeah. So it's still like, I'm still
going to end up being underweight or still am right
now underway being. There's, I know this is an
underdog Channel, but I've actually been drafting a lot on
DraftKings. Lately.
And the if you want to draft form, Andre go to be soggy draft
and Ian go Damien still goes in like the seventh eighth round
her Mantra goes in like the 11-12 round better fit for the
scoring as well. Yeah, way better.
Yep. I mean this is going to line up
pretty well again to if we want to take Henry here, mmm.
Yep, I've never seen this much Raw sturbation on ship chasing.
Really you have it? Yeah, yeah.
Well I get triggered. When I just like listen to the
podcast about the restoration, anything else I'm missing here
over Henry. He's a great pick.
Yeah it's great and just perp it perfectly fits.
Now we're kind of back on track structurally.
It is there a single pick? We've taken more than I think.
It looks like one and change ahead of ATP.
OD boat was to and change ahead of ATP.
Oh, Elijah more was four spots ahead ATP.
I mean, like, everything is like right at 80 was also not
correlated at that time. At that did not.
We just pick the player at that point but debose.
Well, yeah, who do you guys like Here.
Now we're kind of open. Are we on?
I mean, Algeria. And Pickens both are look
interesting to me. I mean, I was, I was going to
say, Tyrion, Davis price is actually my favorite.
I think of all of all these guys, I like game well here, so
we're all on double. Yeah, I like getting my liking.
Yeah. I mean, I doubt any yet.
None of those guys are making it back to us, but right after I
said that now we're having our biggest correlation reach.
Five spots ahead of ATP. Wow, ruined it, this has gone
too far. I don't know what we're
thinking. One thing on the correlation,
I've tried to doing like a little bit is just like, doing
more like one side. It's tough.
What do you guys think about that?
Like where you just kind of do like more like Onslaught E-Type
stuffs, right? As opposed to, like I got one
here, I'll get one from the other get one here.
You know what I mean? No, I'm just like just building
like more like one side of it and then like, I think I did
that with San Francisco or I don't have a Raider, but I, but
I make sure to get like tearing David Price, Trail adds, Danny
Gray. A and Debo.
I like it, Connor brings up sorry God no go ahead, no go
ahead. I was gonna say kind of brings
up the RV one and second one, not historically strong stack
but he obviously doesn't know anything about the New England
Patriots. Oh, that's a team in the NFL and
the running backs in the tight ends.
Are all that matters, all that teeth.
I do think there's a conversation though.
Like it again week, 17, all that matters yada yada, but we are
still making macro correlation bets on these offenses to get us
there. So, yes, while that might have
Slightly negative correlation in a single week.
If the Patriots take a big step up, we're going to want like
Henry and Harris are probably going to be responsible for a
lot of their touchdowns that they score.
Yeah plus like we got what do we get here?
Is because we got we got Henry in the 13th, you got hairs a
couple rounds before that like I don't feel like we need to be
right about every single one of these.
Like we have the Dolphins going up which we made a big stack on
the Dolphins. So we need the Dolphins, have a
good week. 17. And then we have a couple
options of brings acts like that.
And those are the touchdown guys.
Like, we happen to have the right guy, who scores a
touchdown that week on the Patriots, I don't give a shit
it, right? If like, Damien Harris doesn't
do anything that we might be totally fine.
Even even as crazy as it sounds, even Debo doesn't do anything
that week, but tearing Davis price goes for right 33,
touchdowns, that sounds crazy. But last year like Jonathan,
Taylor and Cooper cup and marking.
Andrews were the three biggest Smashes in all of Tennessee,
like probably not particularly close.
And I guess Depot is in that bucket to none of them went
nuts. In the final week they were
nowhere near the top of of raw scores.
It was everybody else, right? I'm on rossing Brown destroyed,
Kubrick up and raw points in the championship.
And so that's why you make these these little bets.
Like, to Pete's point is just like I have no idea how it's
going to play out, but I want to correlate my bets and make them
all kind of fit together. Together.
Well and and you do get a benefit of them being a team
level if Trey, Lance is awesome. I know we don't have him that's
good for Debo and that's good for Davis price.
And so you want to also correlate those little things
we're rooting for Jimmy and this game.
We want one thing in common. Everyone wants Jimmy, he's that.
He's the starter in San Francisco.
We don't, we don't, we don't speak of the back of Jimmy's
completion. Percentage over expected is
Pretty good. It's pretty good you know well
and I showed that team in my video that finished top 10 and
BBM three last year that had literally 11 combined players
from two teams total. Oh yeah, Curzon The Bangles that
you could go down the road, these guys are negatively
correlated these are they made a macro bet on two teams that
wildly exceeded expectations and they made it to 10th in a very
top-heavy tournament again, I'm not saying to replicate that for
this year, but that macro bets on teams is it is a very viable
strategy. I think we're just all scaling
it back a little bit. We're not doing 45, but I've
been doing all kinds of team, mate pairs on.
Yeah, on my team's I think cost is important mainly when it
pertains to quarterback and running back.
I think the biggest mistake people make is like, I took
James Conner. Now, I'm going to take Kyler
Murray and and like, the ceiling events for James Conner and
Kyler Marie are quite like opposing, you know, Their cost.
But like, if you take that know, Darryl Williams, or, you know,
Benjamin or Chianti Ingram, it's a different, it's a very
different discussion. What about a feeling?
Fuller, not correlated, because it's not a team.
I think solar in like every team.
So, I I take full her face, you know what else?
I swear to God, if Fuller doesn't land With Las Vegas or
Miami. I'm gonna be so pissed.
That's definitely going back with Miami.
Yeah, he's going back to Miami. Yeah.
All the money. They paid for all those wide
receivers but it is funny him and Juan de la like my to go to
late-round wide receivers and they're both.
They're both right here. I can't help myself with either.
That's the other one that I wanted to highlight receivers
like obj as much as we played correlation we maybe haven't
played structure while I'm young.
I love grits so much. We did, we need better, we need
more wide receivers. How many do we have 7, IV Tiger
goes? Huh, At this point, I usually
take obj or polio Jesus Christ. What about dpj?
Alright. Leone, don't we use it?
We can we take a guy younger than 40 for the Leone draft.
Can we take dpj or or even Becky one of those?
D, PJ sucks. But yeah we could Julio can't
walk. Julio is probably in that water.
I would honestly if they can either pads old man you guys got
few issues. He was okay.
Let me win the room back over. We can wrap your dpj because the
Browns play the Ravens in week 15.
All right, that's our third. It's the week.
That matters the record most. Do you know the 15 and 16
matchups? Beat?
Because I don't have my heart on my spreadsheet that I look like
that. I look at Some all the 15.
So I keep my I keep, you know, we have a schedule up on Spike
week, I keep it up still even though I know all the week 17
games just just like in a moment of panic is something if
something were to happen or whatever, I'd like to have it up
I don't know that I don't really think about the 15 and 16 games
really very much. I know that you think about it a
little bit more than I view. It's more.
Honestly like in that instance I'm just joking but I do like
looking at which kind of overall schedules.
I really like so like Tampa Bay, Arizona and the to La teams like
their week 15 through 17, there's not they're all either
warm weather or Dome games like it, it's just perfect.
So I do look at some of that stuff but yeah, I'm not
specifically going out of my way for 15 or 16.
The Casey the chief schedule is it's pretty good for the whole
playoffs. So, yeah, at least we think that
are either Houston, Seattle. And Is pretty sexy.
It's hard to imagine. Those are like, no one on their,
their team is projecting poorly in any, in any of those games, I
don't think so. You're taking a stand against
Derrick, Henry does his week 15 and 16 schedule scare the crap
out of you we talked did we talk about this when you get I think
I think it doesn't doesn't scare the crap out of me but I mean
these guys a little the Chargers in the So just run all over.
This guy's the Texans is pretty terrifying.
I'm a little bit bullish on the Chargers.
I think the charger's defense is probably going to take a fairly
significant step forward. Does that mean that Derrick
Henry can't have a big game of? I mean, of course he can.
But you also talked about like dude, Derrick Henry, even before
the injury like he was smashing, but I don't know, he wasn't
quite the same Derrick Henry and then when he came back, then
when he came back and he was flat-out bad.
Does that mean he's going to be bad next year?
Of course not, but I don't know. I have more concerns about
Derrick, Henry being Derrick Henry, regardless of matchup
than I do about like, you know, the Texans in week 16 because
I'm certain, I mean, he could go for two hundred and four men
against the Cowboys and I might be the charges.
I'm thinking, you know, there they were kind of guarantees to
run on them last year so that might not go so great.
And they also have and they spent a lot on the defense.
They spent a Them. They knew it was a it was a
whole they needed to fill. So I was scrolling back up at
the Jazz. And so buddy.
Matt said, let's get weird in the puppies.
The name of our video draft optimally at every pick.
Ha Ha. See I'm savoring it because
normally we would have been forced to get super weird and a
ship chasing room and instead we got a regular room and got to
execute exactly what we what we want.
All right so I mean what we're probably Ernest and Julio Jones,
do whatever you want. We're a little bit going.
All right, we're a little bit weak at running back.
I think this is your next Journey filled dearness makes
sense. On this team.
I would take six running backs on this team.
I think. Yeah.
At least furnace dpj stat. How much we have five and is
each other. Then
If anyone wants to buy equity in this team, it's guaranteed to be
a winner. The last time I was on its
China, I can sell it. Yet so tell I do I do have I
guess a blind spot with Sony Michelle.
I think I've heard your case before.
Pappa. But spell it out again it's
pretty simple case. I don't think Chase Edmunds is
their goal line back. And so if you just take stabs at
Rahim, most Iran and Saudi Michelle, and a bunch of drafts.
Like you probably have Miami's goal line back.
And they're also so cheap that I will take them together on teams
that are like, you know, Zero running back teams that are
hurting a little bit more than I'd like a hand Cocker in our
midst. Well, it's kind of like I think
when it gets that cheek like if you were to take, you know
you're taking two stabs not just at finding like a guy who has a
role but finding a guy who has the goal line rule, I'm way more
willing to do it on my in Miami where I don't like That what the
to cheap thing, too? Because there's a correlation
there where if Edmonds has a serious injury.
Those guys could be like alternating.
Yeah, we'd backs at various times throughout the year.
Like they are similar plays of their upside, their contingent
value, like could be tied in correlated with each, right?
We have a system where the, you know, he's coming from the
Shanahan tree with a traditionally rotated backs,
we've had backs each week. It's a, it's a system that has
produced Spike weeks, but also from a variety of backs of the
course of the season. It's also I think just
specifically with Edmonds like he's so easy for me to bet
against his the goal line back. There's almost not a back.
I did it. He did it.
Yeah, let's roll the clip that I made.
Play highlight clip for Drew lock and I had to edit it.
Wait is that real? You made that whole clip if you
edit it just made the whole cliff and that I you know, I
reduced it from about a minute, 20 down to 11 second Clips,
amazing. All right, if I make a call, you
can't do that though. Do you have still that
assignment is still on your desk to make it's still on my desk?
I mean, You know, you'll be happy to hear.
I'm waiting until ffp season to make the dosage but I do want
the 1.5 CPR scoring for my rookie Titan for your lesson,
okay. Yeah, but it will not be a bit
once that cup is made all right, Eric, I want you to give us the
rundown, pull up our team here again.
Obviously we talked through it as we went but I give you a
breakdown of what we did here. See, this is like what so many
of my team's look like all the week 17 correlation.
But to what we talked about at the very beginning, I'm not
picking and choosing the games, as we start out the draft that
I'm targeting for week 17, right?
I mean, I like the 49ers and Raiders game just fine but we
let it all flow to us and a lot of people hate the Dolphins and
Patriots game like if you were to pick a game that you wanted
to Target, nobody is really targeting that But we like we we
we like the Dolphins and I don't know.
I kind of don't hate the Patriots.
We didn't necessarily get the exact players we wanted on the
Patriots, right? With Ramon Draper's is Damien,
whatever. But everything fit structurally
like this is how I think you should draft is like whether you
like deante Johnson or Damien Harris or or dear Ernest Johnson
or two or Hunter Henry, every pick fit well together, you
didn't sacrifice ATP value and it fits structurally well
together. And the correlation all fell
together. That that is everything we
talked about. For like the first half hour is
like putting all the right things together, mainly that we
talked about last year, right structure, all that kind of
stuff. And then mixing in the the
correlation elements. Like this is how I want to draft
every team. Basically what school, but a lot
of the players you just said that maybe we don't like, is
that that's about half of our team but about half of our team
were sort of player takes like we were like, you know, we want
to take Adams who was want to take Debo and then you make the
decision Deonte Elijah more, right?
Etc. Even I mean waddle and DJ more
was gonna be one or the other, but it is those very much a
we're going wide receiver here. We want one of these two players
and then, you know, then you figure it out from there.
But you get your exposure to the guys that you like, and then
you're still correlating. And I mean, you have to be
willing to not try to make every of your 18 picks be like
correct. You're talking about but that
doesn't mean none of your picks are like player stands for
anything. Yeah and I think one of the
things for me that sometimes struggle with is like I do have
player stands and I want to make my player stands but like I also
have like player preferences like I prefer briefs haul over
JK Dobbins. Don't feel that strongly about
it. Yeah, but like keeping track of
that player preference is sometimes difficult like how
okay like If I think it's like, 5545 my drafting like that,
like, do I need to go check? Am I like wildly Overexposed to
Bruce Hall. Compared to David, but like
using the, the correlation with Dobbins like P you were like
immediately. Like, look, we got the diamonds
correlation that like, stuff like that.
Like I think it's just like helpful.
Okay, let's keep it. If you have, it doesn't come to
pass. It is like that many correlation
hitting. Like just I do think it's like
helpful in guiding. Your, your overall portfolio and
we had there. There are multiple times during
that draft to where I was like, oh this is kind of a gross gross
spot. I feel like you could have made
the case for three to four different players, two to three
different positions, a couple different times.
So it's like if you have your player preferences and your
player takes, there's still going to be plenty of logical
ways to plant that flag during a draft without, you know, really
sacrificing something that sometimes it lines up perfectly
and you're like, yeah, let's just do this but I think there's
tons of time still, where, you know, I find myself doing that a
lot of times with the the 0r B guys.
Eyes to like we all have our guys that we end up liking
there. This might be dumb but trying to
like Propel the discussion forward a little bit or think
through the next things about it.
I mean, it was sort of sort of similar to my dumb comment of
beginning where we had Adams Debo.
Should we intentionally not correlate that, right?
Like that's that's a little bit aggressive, but everyone else is
doing that. My correlate them.
But the one thing that that caught my eye and then I go back
to when I was looking at our roster, was the Renfro pick
where I don't think in DFS, in a given week, I would Play an
atom's a car Adams, Renfro stack.
Necessarily because Renfro to me is not that guy that I
necessarily want to throw in as a double stack Target.
He's the guy that on a week where Adams Target shares down
or wall or targets are down, he's kind of sucking up that
volume but he's not going to be like a big play guy that could
secondary, you know, Target and we still played a pretty big
price on him. Is there an element now would
rather than just like, okay, this player correlates it's
throw him in where you start to actually We think about how he
correlates do, I want to pass on him, the counter to this Eric
already kind of gave earlier when you were talking about how,
at one point you were talking about, how could be different
weeks. Like, Renfro could be the guy
that helps us in week, 16 and a cute.
So, it's a little different than DFS, right?
And I mean, the Bangles with a perfect example, last year with
kind of Chase and Higgins. Ping-ponging these just massive
weeks and that almost goes back to the macro correlation thing,
right? We're just making a bet that the
Dolphins in Raiders is massively, you know exceed
expectations this yeah especially because we don't have
an elite quarterback. When I'm gonna rushing at the
quarterback position. So I actually am really glad we
have around 40 with a car to a team because like we're going to
need Miami in Oakland to be like Oakland, A Las Vegas, to be like
huge over performers, all season long.
I'm actually really glad you brought this up because this is
my biggest Pain Point probably still like it's maybe
overconfidence, but I have quite a bit of confidence, in kind of
my approach to all these different things, week 17,
right, structure, whatever all that shit.
That is kind of, it's almost silly at this point but this is
the one where, like, I bring my DFS brain exactly.
Like what you said Ben where it's like, dude, if I'm making a
DFS team, I'm not playing Justin Jefferson and Adam thielen with
Kirk Cousins. Yeah.
Because like Adam thielen can't outperform every other 7K wide
receiver. If Justin Jefferson is
outperforming Jamar Chase and Tyree kill right?
And Davante Adams and whatever and like obviously they're very
different games but my brain comes from that space.
So like that's how I think about things.
It's like I took Davante Adams in the first round I need him to
be a smash. So if he's a smash and I take
Darren Waller in the fourth round, how can Darren Waller?
Like how can Davante Adams be the best first round?
Pick? If I'm thinking like this pure
total nut nut optimal outcome, right?
And so there's a balancing act in that there are outcomes like,
last year, where T Higgins goes for 40 in the, in week 16, and,
and is awesome. He was awesome all year but then
also goes for 40 and week, 16 and Jamar.
Chase is awesome. All year and goes for 50 in the
face in the fantasy playoffs. But the bat that it's easy to
get tied to that because we saw it happen in like a very hyper
specific scenario. I always loved to joke about the
Davante Adams thing, right? Like oh this third year wide
receiver really sucks ass. But remember Davante Adams was
awesome even though he sucked ass for two years as a
third-year wide receiver, I'm trying not to get too hyper
focus on that but I also don't know that I have the right
answer. I tend to lean more to the, I'm
not trying to overspend on anyone offense.
I tend to lean there. I don't want to have I don't
want to have zero like Chase Higgins in my portfolio.
I don't want to I definitely don't have zero Adams Renfro
whatever. But I'm very cognizant of how
much I'm spending on an individual offense, particularly
given the best ball tournaments. We have net right now, right?
It's not last year, where there's less than 200 people in
the finals. There's 500 people in the
finals. On DraftKings.
There's a fucking thousand people in the, in the final is
huge. So, like, I'm being more
cognizant of it, this year maybe than I even was in the past.
So that was a really good. Good monologue.
So I want to let you finish but that wasn't my point at all.
I would take atoms and Darren Waller on the same team because
of the types of players are. What I was saying was, I'm not
going to let him have have a play, you yourself while you're
here. I specifically like like it's a
player take, right? Like it's I know better time.
I got you with your correlation. Is that another step that is
worth taking? I think it's an interesting, so
I think I would align it with, like player.
Archetype putting players into archetypes, right?
I got amazing Waller on a counter to this point because I
think they can both have multiple touchdown games in the
same game or, you know, whatever, I'm not.
Like renfro's ceiling to me. Overlaps morning.
You know, is more negatively correlated with Devante because
of how to get there, right? How they get to their They're
stealing is very different and their position position is also
a really important factor in this, right?
A tight end ceiling like what you need from Davante, Adams and
Hunter Renfro as a wide receiver /.
Flex is very, very different than what you need from a tight
end school like the general or feel an example you gave.
Like I wasn't thinking about that way.
I would pledge Jefferson thielen to me, would be the same
examples Adams Waller here, but Renfro to positionally, it's
different but positionally it's different, right?
Thielen Waller is a Den who like if I get 17 to 20 points out of
my tight end? Like you're probably out of my
stoned as well as well. Yeah.
Except you have to fucking play him at wide.
Receiver spoiler, there is a wide receiver.
You get to play at tight end. You can draft him in the third
round. He plays for the Atlanta
Falcons, but like, the Adam thielen thing is like, I have to
pay up not in best of all. It's different.
It's a, it's a bad example for drafts because he's not that
expensive. It's much more of like the Chase
Higgins. It's like I'm spending two of my
top. Top three round picks on this
offense. And so, I need a, I need them to
both be a that good or like a truly insane scenario of them,
ping-ponging, which is, which is, which is pretty tough.
It seems lower likelihood. I'm trying to think of others
like examples but maybe almond Roz one where like if I'm on
Swift I'd rather be swift Hawkinson then audition.
Yeah yep I would even go so far as to say that if I'm on a Mike
Williams Herbert stack, you We can't make this decision after
the fact, but I don't know if I want Keenan at his price, I
think I'd want to build La cheaper with my extra pieces,
every I'd ever do that only because they're going to be.
So uncommonly paired that if you did get a chance to drop both of
them because they're atp's are right next to each other.
Yeah. Different nothing but there but
you're just not going to see many of those teams okay?
I think of it as like a sliding scale, similar to DFS.
If you're using a bunch of your salary on a premium double
stack, where It's like the more expensive this deck is, the more
you need that team to score and outperformed expectations in the
cheaper. It is the more wiggle room you
have like, you can. Look at the Alexander Madison
Pollard, you know, win rates and stuff from last year.
It's like they give you that one or two big games at that cost.
You drafted them in the second round there.
When Reds would have been awful at that.
But at their cost, all it takes is those two.
So it's like the first the less Capital you invest in it.
The more you can get away with not getting the Insane ceiling
games consist. But is there anything to this
archetype point? Or is it trying to be too
precise? That's sort of like to do.
I like this? I think it might be too precise
but I also think Liam's got the point of like because I feel the
same way. It's like I just don't want to
rest on a. I don't know.
I don't like it for half PPR, so it's more.
Like I loved about the atoms. Archetype scores points.
Touchdowns against question Target this.
Archive, you good? Yeah, here's my thing about the
archetype. I agree.
Structurally. Not just like On the micro Team
level, it's the same, it's Eric's favorite line.
What is James White you for this team?
So, we, he's like the James White of strong wide receiver
team, right, where it's like, we're loaded up here.
That's why I kind of was like at the at one point to like Pickens
looked attractive to me too because it's like could he just
could Pickens be a third or fourth round pick next year?
I think so. Like probably where it's like
can Renfro probably not you know so just thinking of that to of
like what type of profile are we Abby here that could
realistically. See our starting lineup that
said, I have a feeling run for a while.
Will definitely crack our line up a few times throughout the
year. Yeah.
Like I said I feel way better
that we have car and need car. Like even if you have we have
Lance car, I would feel less good about because then it's
like cars almost just like our bet is going to be more
primarily on the better quarterback.
But we like need the Raiders to yeah, really good.
Yeah, yeah. And the other thing, too.
And again, with all of this stuff, like there's contingent
value, you know, if Waller were to get hurt, you know, stuff
like that, where all of a sudden Renfro is now all of a sudden
back into a bigger Target share than we expected.
Like, you do have those out and that's why to like I don't want
to pigeonhole myself out of any combinations just because of
stylistic or archetypal fits, right?
Because you still always have that contingent value.
That's the hardest part and contingent the contingent thing
is very difficult because it's easy to say and like we all
understand it as we're talking through it.
But, well, you're terrible at archetypes.
Liam supercomputers becomes a pretty fucking good arkad
archetype for upside. The guy, I don't know, but
they're pretty good. I don't know.
Maybe you should learn archetype and stop playing chess.
But that that it is, it is, it is really difficult that.
The archetype thing is really difficult and the like, all this
kind of these conversations are the ones I think are the most
important, like, even like the stuff we talked about with week
17, it's important, but it was more.
So a little bit of trolling. This is like the hard part, like
you tell everything that been said about, like the Sunda,
Renfro fit on this team makes perfect sense to me.
But then like when we like Take another view through it and
you're like, oh, we just bet on the Raiders, right?
There's contingent value. There's all these reasons that
makes sense to what's the right answer?
I have no idea. It's all because Renfro could
have a big week 16 and be the reason we get atoms in color
stack through and there might not be a lot of times card
Stacks through got the didn't have Renfro and then we end up
winning with that. What we're trying to say is what
if renfro's the guy you need? But part of me, does lean
towards run for being a good pick.
I was at least for like any team that I'm a part of because I am
never taking run Pro. Like anytime it's like, rent,
like renfro's always cover for whoever else, I'm hoping fall.
So, like if there's a spot where, like, Renfro actually
does make sense here, I do feel like he probably makes sense
because I'm all my by the seas are telling me not to pick him
up. I do have more Renfro than I
probably care to admit, because I'm massively over exposed to
the 49ers. I'm Trey Lancer.
So he's like the The oh shit. I don't have any Raiders.
Yeah like I mean and in here I have to take Josh Jacobs like
yeah or it's getting its way worse.
If you don't take him it's like your options are Kenyan Drake
zamir, white Demarcus Robinson like it gets out of that real
bad. If you don't take Hunter Renfrew
I think it would Cole's got that job.
Yeah, I know it's Jesus Christ like I said it gets real fucking
bad. I'm not drafting killing coal,
but I'm also not dropping to Mark.
So either the the point you made about like, needing more based
on how much the cost is for that stack like the higher you pay,
the more you need that does have me.
Like, because we just saw with the with the Bangles, like that
does make me feel like, you know what?
I'm fine, getting some of this Chase Higgins, double stack.
I also saw Draco and and Liam and I think Eric you were About
not being super No Mess act. Like the fact that you guys like
aren't that in on that stack also make me feel like, well,
maybe I'll get one of these guys have been talking Hayden's
heads, not in on it. Hayden's not in on it.
A lot of people are not sitting on.
This is where we're through our small field DFS turned into a.
We all out level each other by the Arecibo.
I heard him getting Steve done. This could gpp show, I doubt I
can but that's going to be I think I am because like all
these people aren't and we know what has As the ceiling.
So but I guess my like, is there push back?
Like, is the ceiling that we saw last year?
And the way it was ordered. Like, he's that just like so
random and unlikely to repeat again that we should probably
just like, go back a step and go.
Hang on. We're asking a ton from these
guys for the car. It's a great question.
Liam says he doesn't care about cost for Stacks.
I don't agree but I but I don't have a like I said, I'm coming
from this DFS lens again. I don't laugh week that breaks
it down. Pretty clearly here that Jack
Miller just posted. As far as how important the
getting positive value on Stacks is here.
But that's value, right? I mean, that would be like
sleeping on. Stacks is means you're, you're
in this with or bucket here. The reason for reaching or like
the fact that like, let's say, you've got chase a pic pastino.
People loss against fell in the third.
Gotcha. Yeah.
Right? I see what you're saying that
just, you're paying a lot for the stacks, but you're still
getting it at appropriate, ATP value, Jack's.
Yeah, go back to Jack's tweet. That was interesting because he
was to find neutral as within 16 pics of ATP.
I mean, I feel like that's a pretty big window.
I don't know. I can't even swim though.
Probably has samples, but that neutral bucket is still okay.
And that's a whole round and a third.
Yeah. So you I mean if you reach your
round, that's saying you're still not like sacrificing a
ton. Yeah, it's interesting.
Yeah, I think it's more just like it's a good reminder to not
go wild chasing these correlations.
Just knowing, once you open yourself up to not caring about
specific games and you know, you can do any of the secondary
correlations. There's Avenues throughout the
entire draft where you never have to force it.
Like, I don't think I've ever done where I'm just like, walk
like I have nothing. I don't know what to do.
I have no options or whatever it even if that's the case.
Like, sometimes I'm needing to get a Minnesota guy and I miss
Osborne and there's just no one left.
That's fine. Fine.
Yeah, but you're flipping is Neo of of correlation.
Yeah. You're like reading the book in
The Matrix, like every time we're doing a draft together,
you're like oh yeah, it's this guy obviously.
I'm like, what the fuck are we taking me way longer than the
30? Second block, I would have
figured that out halfway through the next round.
Was it? It's my favorite.
I think that forgot the song with the week 17 matchups.
Oh, Lu Lu, ya did that? I have to pull that up.
This Great. Lou, put together a little
mnemonic device. So if you if you don't have the
cheat sheets with you, we didn't start there.
A line of Tampa Bay Cardinals, getting Chick-fil-A, San
Francisco, Las Vegas Saints. Got a march to Philly.
I mess that up. Dolphins hats, will it snow Mini
at Lambeau somehow? Spaags made it in here.
Texans Jags wins bags, pump my Bangles bills bags, jet socks
Ravens pit, Giants, Colts are they?
It lions tigers and bears. Oh my win, you win.
Win. Will you cry?
We didn't stack. Week 17.
No we didn't stack it. We failed to bring it back so
good. Bye.
Lou there. That's so good.
Dallas child. I wrote this one if we were
in Washington, that is amazing. So Eric, yeah, tell the people
you guys got a full set of programming going on over and
Spike week, but everyone wants to know, Wind tools when tool?
Yeah, can I share my screen real quick?
Yeah, so I can tease a little something.
So this is the, the first version of this tool that we're
building. We're still polishing up a
couple of things. A few little functionality
things, I just have my under. So, this is literally my
Underdog teams. I've drafted 53 teams.
You see $865 and I'll go to this first, just because it only has
dummy data in it so far, but we have a couple different tabs
that you can see here with like kind of my drafts and exposures.
And so I'm really excited. Cited actually about this
exposure stabbed because said, it's just dummy data.
You see just a bunch of Derrick Henry stuff, very excited about
Derrick Henry, apparently, clearly I'm drafting a shitload
of Derrick Henry, this was strolling.
This was this was strolling by the designer, and the developer
is putting Derrick Henry into my into my mock-up, but but, but
you see, like, you'll be able to see everything about your entire
portfolio. Like, obviously this is just the
players, but all your Stacks like the exposure, you have to
Every single stack, the exposure, you have to every
single structure. I always say that I don't have
the right, would you call this a roster build?
This is what we just did. Roster build like 2592 and then
structure being 0, RB hero, our be whatever, but you'll be able
to see you. See, they joked around with
calcium are be and indifferent, stupid names.
But like, then also seeing how your playoff correlations?
Look, how many of the each game in week 17, you have and you'll
be able to actually like, Pull up and look and see.
I click on write. If This Were Kansas City Denver,
I click on this and I would be able to see the teams that I
have like specifically that are our Kansas City Denver teams and
then just from within the actual drafts, like you can upload
your, you'll be able to upload your own rankings here and then
see, like everything about my top down portfolio.
Like, you can see, right? I have six percent Jonathan
Taylor. It's a, there's a rounding.
And this is obviously Sakura no pizza, no face but I
unfortunately this isn't crowd. So I want but I wanted to show
it just because you can see it's almost like a draft kind of
thing. Obviously you can see your
exposure but There's a bunch of cool shit, right?
Like I can hear, you can see like, look at some of this is
actually not very good. You can see, my average ATP of
Javonte Williams versus this, current ATP.
I'm, I have not been taking him always at ATP, right?
But Justin Jefferson. I'm getting good value on.
Justin Jefferson say, gone Berkeley.
I'm getting good value on Sake, One Berkeley on, and on down the
list, I can see that for every single player in my ranking.
Set trail ants, there's trailing arms around your head, straight
And it right. But that so you can see all of
that, you can see the playoff, the playoff schedule is here for
you. If you want to keep this up
instead of the playoff schedule, right?
I can see who Jonathan Taylor plays in week 15. 16 17.
I see a teepee changes. And then this is honestly kind
of my favorite. I just tweeted out about this, I
can see on each site. So I'll be able to filter by
Underdog DraftKings. And we're adding drafters as
well like all of my. So you see here my obviously a
Jonathan Taylor team is not going to be a 0 r.
Team right? But 100% of my Jonathan Taylor
teams start with two running backs.
So like I have 6% Jonathan Taylor and they all start with
to the first two rounds are running backs and so like that's
I power know that that's really great.
Yeah I didn't I literally didn't know that until two days ago and
so I got that like and now you quickly see how exposed you are
to like Berkeley Aaron Jones and those two, three turn running
backs Javonte succeed. Adding where you could have a
Jonathan Taylor smash here but say that grouping fails like
man, that's such a powerful information.
Yeah. And so you see it's also really
funny. The, I'm not that worried as
much about the running backs. I mean, I don't want to have
100% to running back starts with with JT, but it was funny to me.
You look at Cooper cup versus Justin Jefferson versus Jamar
Chase. Like, almost all my Jamar Chase
teams or zero running back. That's not the case with the
other two early round wide receivers, and it's like, well,
why would Jim? Our Chase?
Be the only one that's giving all the 0 RV, teams and wise,
Kubrick up getting all these two running backs starts, right?
Do I want that? This probably because I like in
a draft in my perfect world. I would be able to kind of like
randomize, some of the structures for that.
So to quickly go check your on a Jamar Chase and no, oh, maybe
I'll get an anchor. You know, running back.
Build here in the Kind of third every now and again, to kind of
balance. The textures of my Jamar Chase
builds, that's awesome. Yep, you'll also be able to see
those specific combinations. So on this, so only other thing
I'll say on this exposures, see the search here this doesn't
work yet but you would be able to type in it says you see.
It says team or up to four players together I could type in
Jamar Chase. T Higgins, cool, whatever.
And then it will filter all this data down here.
To say, okay, what are, what are my stacks with that combination
of players or what are my structures with that combination
of players? So this is like super, super
super close. I keep kind of teasing it,
mostly just because I'm like, selfishly excited about it, but
it's coming like, I don't know. Not even a week, hopefully,
it'll be out. That's that that everybody is so
fucking awesome. Consigliere asking the tough
questions. How much is this tool gonna
cost? I'll tease it only only for the
ship just because I love the ship chasing promo code, chasing
the promo code promo, code ship Kasich chip chasing.
We're going to be launching a full-fledged premium product,
which will include this tool, and other tools, actually don't
don't know if I can pull up some of the ATP stuff, I just want to
see if it's working right now. Under my, we have a bunch of
like a teepee. We're building a bunch of shit.
Okay. Yeah so like You'll be able to
see specific. Let me see if this works really
fast, just to pull it up for shit's and gigs.
So you see here by round, you'll be able to see like a teepee
tools. Let's look at who's available in
the sixth round right now Underdog.
And you can see like, like I mean, Antonio Gibson used to be
going 30th overall and you see now he's in the sixth round.
Right? And so there's a mic.
I can exit dudes out, okay? I don't want to look at Gibson,
I don't know. That's great.
But so, we have ATP tools. The rankings are going to go
behind the paywall. There's a bunch of shit.
We're just doing a lot of stuff like more than me have been
putting in a lot of hard work. So like I'm really proud of it.
I'm really proud of the guys putting in all this and it's
literally it's going to be $25 a month.
I know I was burying the lead like everything that you're
going to get like forever for Spike week is going to be $25 a
month. So yeah.
Very very very very soon. Thank you for Me share it
because I was a excited about the progress.
Now you get to get the Gretsch treatment where we tell him that
his newsletters too cheap to get to tell you that the the tools
are too cheap. We do the mat comment about, you
know, wonder if he should file divorce or wait for a wife to
push it. Once the once the tool goes
live, I do think like you know, the barbell strategy that we're
all big fans of like this kind of gives you something to do
instead of just like firing off too many best.
Ball drafts in, you know? Yeah, the first week of training
camp, right? It's like you can use this time
to actually analyze like what you need like, okay, you're
prepping for your final push of drafts like I think I'll like
plan out something, I need to get some more Jim Marchese here,
running back starts or whatever it is right and you've got like
you know, you're like prep. You've got a game plan.
Yeah. And I do think too like that is
really the next Frontier of the stuff we're going to be talking
about is like portfolio. Lawns and stuff like that
because, you know, you would never sure she would some people
run 150, you know, the same stack in games back and DFS.
Yes, some people some people do that but as far as like pure
entertainment purposes and stuff like you do want to be relying
on the structure in some of these edges, you have and
building through those in different ways and to have a
tool like this, that can actually quantify it.
And not like, I just do it off of feel.
Like I think I normally don't take this guy here too, but
well, I mean, I've never had a manage this many basketball
teams because they can't do Underdog as we all know.
But I would have met like I hear you guys talk about how it's
kind of tough to draft as much as you have to to get us enough
of these teams in. But the way that I feel like
this tool would add a ton of value for me is that I'd go look
at this and then want to get it more.
Like I'd have ideas on what to do and that's crafts.
Like, yeah, you're constantly then being pushed.
Yeah. You know to help you hit your
your number of entries. I want to get to you have now a
mission for your next couple weeks of what you need to do, to
smooth out, some some stuff. So and also and smoothing out
and getting the ideas because like, I do get like, you know,
I'm nervous to put this in and see how much will Fuller I have
that without that 12 for that. But to that point, it was like I
can see See how much Zero running back I have and it's
like yeah well I thought I was I thought I was drafting this much
and like to please Point your like doing it in your head but
like it never looks like you, I mean, shit we just talked about
like I'm literally drafting like what?
I thought was a shitload of Zero running back teams or hero
running back teams and then the data comes back and I'm like,
fuck. That's not what I thought that
this was going to look like. Like I thought it was going to
be like tons of Zero running back.
Jabez be it, 90 %, 0r B, but I'm at 80%, I need to get nasty.
All they hear, they do you see all that?
Not even, just heroic here are running back.
I'm like, kind of okay with there's like like tons.
So like are like dual running back, is to in the first three
rounds are. I think for its, somebody asked
about the definitions, I can get, I can get those to you,
we're still working on the definitions.
I want to make sure the data makes sense, right?
Is trying to it. Work massaging, all of that.
But like I thought it would come back with, like, a bunch of zero
and hero, R&B, and it did not come back.
That way. And so I was like, you know, but
my strategy is zero and hero R&B.
And if I'm not implementing my strategy, how I think I am, I
need to know that and there's no other way for me to know that
right now. Do you know what you should do?
Eric. We should have you know like
ESPN. And I even don't wrote of his
does it? They have their like ranking
Summit. You should host a best ball
Summit, where you get some best ball.
Thought leaders. And we hash out what we're all,
just going to call these and just so we can all agree upon it
for Data terms for Clear use like it would be really nice to
get everyone on the same page. Oh my God, I posted about this
specifically for this. And that sounds like the worst
fucking Summit to be at. Oh my God, you go.
So I'm not saying a fucking word at that Summit because I posted
one tweet asking about it and it was the most miserable
experience of my life. Here's what I think for the
definitions of yours Pete in your video.
I went because I was asking Michael do more about the EB
calculations and so I vent. So I had then have the calc but
I just knew what the builds were.
And so I went to make sure the calculation right I did all of
the like 0 running back there running that guilt and I by
intuition got to your build like, very quickly.
So I feel like your definitions were.
We're pretty on point for the for those structures.
Yes, we are very, very similar. We had like, very minor
differences, like super minor differences.
Yeah, tears. I mean the truth is at the end
of the day people they like arguing about the name because
they don't want to engage with the ideas themselves and let's
have it. It's much easier to argue about
a day. As we look to the chase there.
Is that feeling of because I did experience this a little bit
last year. I don't think there's really
anything worse than being like, Yeah, like let's say, this is a
zero running back here. Just like those either running
back. Your was it like 2015, what was
the running back apocalypse? Like, there's another running
back pop-ups. Like you need to have zero
running back teams this year and it's like, Zero running back
crushes and I love jus Martis. I'm gonna have an incredible
year and then to realize you don't, oh I drafted a bunch of
here. Running back teams with Tamar
Chaser. I prefer agile teams.
I mean that's like, like why would you you would never do
that. You would never go into the
season intentionally doing yeah. Yep.
For sure. Well.
Very excited for that. You guys can obviously should be
following Eric on Twitter checking out Spike week.
All kinds of stuff over there between livestreams, the tools
articles on the site, lots of fun overlap with the deposit
Kingdom, guys, I know our guy Silas is over there doing stuff.
We got robbed Jonathan's doing written stuff.
So awesome. Best ball community over there.
Definitely check it out. And this will not be the last
Spike week ship, chasing crossover stream.
We Do this year will definitely get things running back.
Probably in about a month again, right?
In the middle of best ball, summer.
I say we run this back grach, Pat.
Anything else on your guys radar here?
Nope. Nope, I am doing a randomizer
draft with Davis tomorrow. He's threatening to pull a Silva
on me. Come help me.
Shame him to tweet out dumb shit.
And have fun. Enjoy the rest of your week.
We will see you guys next Wednesday.