Preseason week one is in the books, and the fantasy markets
are already tossing out their priors because of a grand total
of 12 snaps played with the starters.
Today we'll be covering the top 10 most interesting Nuggets from
this past weekend's preseason action.
This is ADP chasing. Let's go Pat Fryer homo.
This is what this is what I'm hot Anita hand.
Job fix your side, Jamar, Elfo play chase you.
Can't handle the heat? It looks like we're finally at
this point. You're right.
All right, everybody. Welcome to August 14th edition
of ADP Chasing in the upset of the century.
It wasn't Pat's or my Internet issues that were causing delay
here. Don't really know what's going
on with Davis, but he will be. I know what's going on.
So before we went on, we got a tweet reply here saying talking
about Davis's mustache and making fun of David saying check
out my mustache. And then he said, Oh no, the
mustache has been shaved so that you know, you won't make an
appearance. And then he ends up being late
to the podcast. Now this, this strikes me as
pretty clearly a sign that he ran to go shave his mustache.
Just decided the mustache couldn't make any more
appearances on podcast, and that's why.
So why we're sitting here. So, you know, Dave is lathering
up, you know, making sure his face is nice and soft before.
I mean, it makes sense if you watch the stream, the draft
stream, he probably doesn't want any memory of that mustache
draft stream with Liam and Kyle to still be continuing on.
So he's probably gotta cleanse his face of that.
I do appreciate it. Yeah.
I don't. I certainly don't want that
mustache anywhere near this show.
Yeah. Well, anyways, yeah, we had
preseason week one this past week.
We'll wait a little bit for days before we get into the charts
here, but Pat, curious, are you somebody who actually watches
preseason games? Or do you just read the snap
summaries? Nathan Yonkee, thank you for
your service. No, I do not watch, watch the
preseason. I mean, the highlights make
their way across and I get to see that on Twitter.
So Chris, by the way, pointing out that I probably just have
mustache jealousy, which is fair.
I cannot grow. I could grow a mustache.
I can't grow anything but a mustache.
I can grow the world's worst mustache and that no one wants
to see. So yeah, yeah, that's probably
probably something to that. But no, I don't watch the
preseason. I find it boring to be honest.
And yeah, so I I just go and I I check out the snaps.
I seriously do think Nathan Yankee stuff is really helpful.
It's awesome. Yeah.
Because you know it's the
context of of like, OK, you know he's been doing this for a
number of years as well. So he can be like this team like
normally does this and. The fact they didn't do this is
interesting or you know they they usually rotate their their
running backs by series and you know they either did or didn't
do that or we can kind of because we're just trying to
parse the the new information. And I I think people push back
on the preseason stuff to some extent.
You point out like you know in the intro we're all not throwing
out our priors. You don't want to do that,
obviously, but. You know, a lot of like noisy
stuff happens all the time in the NFL.
Like people have been pointing out the Josh Jacobs one from
last year. You know, he was used a lot in
the Hall of Fame game. But then who was it?
Someone on Twitter was like, you know, he did rest with the
starters for the rest of the life.
I think it was it was Josh or Hayden.
I think that that. Yeah.
Yeah, I saw that. Yeah, I think it was Hayden.
Yeah. Yeah.
So that that was like, yeah, so that's that was a very helpful
follow up data point. The one that sticks with me is.
Antonio Gibson two years ago was not used in 3rd down situations
with the starters in the the third preseason game, I guess at
that time or the 2nd, whichever the meaningful preseason game
was that year. Yeah, and Janie Mckissack was,
and that was like very important information that I mostly
disregarded. I was like whatever preseason,
who cares. But like that I knew I was kind
of probably being stupid even. And then like I this probably
matters some. But it's like then it's like,
well, whatever. Like he'll take it over by the
end of the season. But we are getting Nuggets of
information. They're buried in Nuggets of
noise. But like, I don't know, it's is
it like, it's not as powerful as week one, obviously, but like,
week ones like that too. When we're in week one, we're
like, oh, what does this mean? What does this mean?
But no one's like, don't pay attention to week one.
You know, it's it's going to take some work to to get the
right lessons out of the preseason stuff.
But I I do think there's lessons in there.
I do too. Yeah, I I so yeah, I was, I was
joking in the intro about 12 steps to play with the starters.
I, you know, I think I'm on the same page as you, Pat, where
obviously there is noise. And you know when, for example,
you know Devon a chain. He's playing with the third team
this preseason game. He's playing behind Miles Gasket
and solve an op Med. Like that's something that
strikes me as OK, he's a rookie running back.
And like that's normal. I'm not like completely, you
know, taking out the panic button and fading, you know, a
chain completely. But at the same time, it's like
it would be better if he was playing ahead of those guys.
Like, you know, there are some rookies that are like, you know,
Musgraves playing with the ones like, right.
There's other you know, tank Bigsby got snapped by the with
the 1:00. So I think the pushback on like
preseason is meaningless, like tossed all out.
It's like you have to put it in context, I think particularly
for rookies because that's just how the NFL works.
Like these guys are very often buried on their depth charts to
start the season and that's completely normal.
But the folks that are like, you know, I saw Levitan, he put out
a great thread of the preseason takeaways and it's still tons of
responses of like, overreacting the preseason.
This means nothing. I mean people have to realize
like, yes, some of these reactions, like, will end up
being wrong. Like it's not going to be
perfect. But All in all, like, I think
paying attention to preseason usage is like an edge that you
have if you're able to parse. It, yeah.
I generally think doing work is an edge, you know what I mean?
So if you're like thinking through, like if you're
bothering to incorporate new information and then think
through it about what was and was not baked into this guy's
outlook and then what this new information gives us, you know,
I think it's an edge like no one there's a I think some of the
pushback is like. It stems from like laziness to
an extent. Like don't.
Yeah don't get this stuff out of my face.
Like I don't care. I don't wanna have to think
about this. But and obviously if you just
like flow with the wind of you know this guy got 8 snaps with
the snorers and this guy got no, no, no.
Like that would be stupid. But like you're, you know, I I
think like like the HM one's a good one right?
Like what's baked in. Well, you could argue that like
his current price, price doesn't really reflect.
Really any early season production.
Like it's pretty much like he never really bounced back fully
from the Dalvin Cook rumors. He is priced.
Basically is like a late season, you know high upside.
But like you you definitely need him to like you good, but like a
guy who can come on down the stretch as a a rookie with elite
speed and fully pay off for you at his current ADP.
So docking him a lot for not. Being involved is like a clear
starter right away. I mean, like if a team was like
a clear starter should be like a sixth round pick, fifth round
pick, Like it's not baked into his price, you know?
So don't freak out. But then there's guys like, you
know, like Penny. Like, I'm a little nervous about
Penny because I'm like, he's kind of priced like he's going
to have some kind of role right away.
I mean, they're not priced like that differently from each
other, but it's like a bit of a different.
That because it's like a crowded situation.
And so now with Penny, like, I'm not freaking out too much, but
I'm like I thought Penny was like kind of almost helpful in
the early season because I'm worried about this injury risk.
But at least like he'll have this role and now it's the
opposite. I'm like, well, now it's a bet
on talent play where he has to like prove himself probably and
stay healthy. And I want to spend a little
less on that. And I I want to fit that into my
running back rooms a little differently as well.
Like he Yeah, some of it can just be kind of like.
Qualitative like what type of jigsaw pieces this guy and what
how does he fit into my rooms. Yeah for sure.
It definitely like I think the penny one is a good example cuz
that didn't what we saw doesn't change just like true upside
case by any means. But I think definitely has a
lower floor introduced with that information and we'll get to the
Eagles, Arby's and sort of break it all down.
But yeah, I totally agree. Yeah, who looked good?
I think some of the preseason pushback, I think it stems from
a couple things. One, like you said, is laziness
2. I think the industry like five
years ago was really bad at analyzing preseason and stuff.
It was just like whatever rookie got the coolest highlights, it
doesn't. Yeah, it didn't matter if it was
in the third quarter or what it was like.
That rookie got a huge highlight.
Let's drive up our boards and some of that still happens a
little bit now, but. Roshon is it's a little roshon
right now. Yeah.
And it's like, I get it. He looked good, but that's not
why I don't watch cuz that he looked good.
Part of it is pretty useless. It's like he looked good, but
it's so hard to know what that means against, you know, he
ripped off that run middle of the third quarter against the
backup defenders. Like, who knows what that means?
Anyways, the Roshon, you know, people think I'm biased against
Rochon. Like the reason I'm not reacting
that clip at all is nothing to do with my bias.
It's that he entered the game after Tristan Edner, which
again, he's a rookie running back.
That's to be expected. But like, I don't think we got
new news on Rochon. That's like great, right?
Like if he played earlier, if he played with the starters, that
would be good news. I'm not reacting to like a 19
yard run against backups. Even though I met he, he looked
really cool doing it. I'm reacting to him a little
bit, just because in the sense of like.
I'm just, I I'm just kind of holding steady on Roshan.
He's not like moving up for me, but he's just like, OK, he's
wasn't with, you know, he's clearly got work to do.
But like, then maybe he did do the work.
Because look, I mean, the guys are watching these games.
We know from watching Hard Knocks and stuff that the coach
is like to a level that is like, frankly stupid care about who
wins these games. Like they really care about,
like whether or not they're 4th or 5th.
Dude 2 will never play a snap for their team ever, because
they're all getting caught. Whether or not they like win
these games, like they're like really worked up about it.
They're like emotionally invested.
So I do think that like ripping off a long run can be helpful.
You know for a guy who. But of course you need to what's
the prior? Well, the prior is like he was
having a good training camp. He they trust him as a pass
blocker already. He'd like, you know, they seem
interested in him having a role and then he has this big long
run and it's like, OK, well maybe that'll help.
And then? We get to see like next week,
like do they give him a little bit more run with a head of
trust in Edner, Right. So yeah, if they don't though, I
think that's meaningful. Yeah, and I think Edner did
actually get hurt in that game, so that's like a very small
injury to watch. But anyways, we're gonna get
started here. As Fade Mike Takes mentions
Davis Davis is being dropped in the rankings.
He doesn't seem like he's getting playing times with the
ones today. Or he's getting rested.
He's getting, Yeah, he might. We might be resting.
Him before I should have dancing appearance.
Yeah, I don't know. It's hard to say.
We'll check. We'll check that injury news on
Davis there. But 20?
Minutes past 12 Where is Davis? Let's get started here.
Davis, if you're watching, please come join us.
For some reason, I feel like we're just gonna see Davis,
like, arguing in the chat halfway through the show.
People like he normally does. He's probably Let's see if
Liam's streaming. He's probably arguing anything
about Dalton Kincaid. He couldn't resist off again.
Yeah, yeah. I don't know who is the Davis
handcuff. We're looking.
Strongly Who is the Davis? Handcuff.
I don't know, Pete, Peter, Gretch are usually pretty good
contingent plays if one of us misses time.
Yeah, that's true. But it's hard.
You. Guys, stand alone value as well.
I mean that guy's yeah, yeah, that's a lot of stand alone
value. A lot of stand alone value with
Pete. Oh man.
OK anyways, so we're gonna get to the Rogers and followers.
I wanted to 1st pull out some guys that actually don't pop as
either major risers or followers, but I think we got
pretty big interesting news on some of these top 150 picks
here. The first one, Christian Kirk.
So setting the scene here. Kirk again, you know, small
sample size button around 12 snaps.
With the starters he was limited to three wide receiver sets.
Only Ze Jones was actually playing ahead of him in two wide
receiver sets which is interesting.
This nugget was from Nathan Janke's article on PFF, but Kirk
did play ahead of Zay Jones and 12 personnel snaps last year.
I think they're both playing a bunch of two odd receiver sets
last year. But yeah, they wouldn't be
ahead, right? It'd be together, yeah, but I
think so. Marvin Jones played more snaps
than you think. And so Janky's article said that
Kirk I think played in like 89% of 12 personnel snaps last year,
where Zay Jones only played in like 60% so.
I think Jones had a 92% route rate and Kirk had a 95% route
rate so and and Marvin Jones was at 76%.
So what my take on it was that last year and and yeah I mean
Jones was coming off a little bit more often than Kirk.
So, so I get that but it they were both like very like when
you have 90 plus percent route participation that is.
Like a leap for a wide receiver. I mean you'll occasionally see
like Jamar Chase is like 95% plus some of these.
True, truly, it's like never leave the field.
But these were very much full time players last year, both Ze
Jones and Christian Kirk. Yeah, they're very much full
time players. So with the addition of Ridley,
I think it is noteworthy that Kirk was limited to three wide
receiver sets. Again this nugget was from
Janky's article but I think it totally depends on the offense.
But like a rough rule of thumb is you can think of like 2 wide
receiver sets consisting of like 20% of fantasy production was
the note he had in the article. So if a player is slot only, I
think that kind of limits that their upside because generally
it's hard to be, you know, slot only players are generally only
80 percent, 75% maybe, you know, could be 85% on a really you
know three wide receiver set heavy offense, but they're more
in that route range than what Kirk and Jones were in last
year. So yeah.
Curious what you think. Between a guy who plays in the
slot in three wide receiver sets and then moves to the outside
and two wide receiver sets, which is kind of what Kirk was
last year. Yeah, like.
Being in slots, fine. But you want the guys who are
still going to be out there in two wide receivers sets.
Otherwise, yeah, you drop from like a 90% to 75% route
participation, something like that.
Which hurts. Yeah, it hurts.
It doesn't like when you just say those numbers, it doesn't
sound like a lot. And I know players who play only
in the slot, like, can get there.
But yeah, curious what you think on.
So Kirk's ADP, Pat, he's around pick 51.
I know a lot of sharp drafters, like you know the folks at ETR
are really high in Kirk. What are your thoughts?
Are you reacting to this news at all that Kirk's only playing
through out receiver sets? Yeah.
So my thing with is I, when I try to, you know, interpret this
information, I'm trying to think through like what what I
thought, you know, what my prior was.
But also like, you know, if I had a guy ranked somewhere, why
did I have him ranked there? And part of the reason that I I
kind of Kirk like fairly close to ADP, I think it was a little
behind. But I never really got it like I
I never got the bull case fully like he was more someone that I
was like drafting to respect the market and because I need a wide
receiver in those ranges ranges sometimes.
And then yeah, like sharp sites like ETR or have been very high
on Kirk the whole time. But when I looked at Kirk, like
when I was doing the walkthrough last year.
He did not seem like he was really like ahead of Ze Jones.
They seemed like very much kind of 1A1B and I don't have a very
high opinion of Ze Jones, so that was a red flag like in and
of itself to me. I also have not been
particularly impressed with Christian Kirk over his career.
We weren't, you know, that excited about him as he entered
the Jaguars. I mean, we are kind of got
panned for, you know, getting overpaid like.
I think he's like a fine Alan, but not anyone I want to be like
particularly invested in. Also like, you know, if you
think through what the fifth round it could really be for, it
would be ideal to find someone who's going to be like an
absolute smash. There is that, Davis.
Yo. Just just Davis, Just Dog and
Christian Kirk. I I bumped Kirk, Kirk down
pretty significantly just because I I was like, OK, I
don't think I've never been that into him.
And I'm kind of like, well, the market likes him, some other
sites like him, but if he's going to be like a slot
receiver, he's grossly overpriced, I think.
So where did you, where did you talk him to Pat?
Just curious like how far? I talked him to 60 in my In my
pure ranks, he comes out the ADP keeps him just a bit higher in
the ranks. He's at 59, Yeah, because I
think an interesting comp right to him when I was thinking about
his price is like the Tyler Locket JSN range.
Because those are similar guys where they're on what we think
are gonna be really good offenses.
But one of them is gonna be a three wide receiver only player
in all likelihood of, you know, it might be different sections
of the year where they're playing two wide receiver sets,
whatever. But is that kind of the range
where you're viewing Kirk now, like in the Tyler Locket Yes
Zone. OK.
Yes, got it. That's I have.
I actually have one spot behind. Kirk, CDP was nonsensical to
begin with because you basically, you basically had to
project this rise that like we all sort of think it's possible
for Zaja or for Trevor Lawrence to throw for 4900 yards and 40
touchdowns and like, blow the NFL up.
But the only way for Kirk to pay off at what he cost it already
was for that to happen. Like if you're.
Doing or for Ridley not to be it right, Ridley's.
And I and I guess that's what the ADP is baking in a little
bit like the ADP is doing. I think it's doing a couple
things. It's like baking in some chance
of Lawrence going nuclear, some chance of Calvin Ridley being a
guy who hasn't played football for two years and gets injured
or just isn't as good. Kirk kind of doing a a segmented
role like because remember in Arizona how he would be useless
for like 8 weeks and then go. He would do.
He would do like the Lee Evans, you know he'd be 4 target, 3
receptions, 120 yards and a touchdown Like that was sort of
like what he would do and also ze Jones not being targeted near
as much, which we really haven't gotten any indication of and
then in the. Previous no indication of that.
We got the opposite indication right.
We got we got that the team actually still really values ZE
Jones and for me it's just like I'm never clicking Kirk over
Iuke. I I like iuke so much more
actually in a very similar way where like the target roll maybe
week to week isn't super projectable but I like the iuke
ceiling more. Iuke I think has more contingent
value and the both the Seattle guys, JSN and Lockett, I like
them more as well. So we just felt like a bad click
and I barely have any of them and I'm probably going to take
less of them now. Yeah.
I mean because I. Just get to a spot where you're
like, I need a receiver and it wouldn't be terrible to have.
I had 6% Kirk, so I was like capitulating a little bit more,
which now I regret. But yeah, I was always kind of
like felt like I was forced into it by the room.
When you just need that, it's like 503 and you really need a
receiver, yeah, yeah. Yeah, I I think I don't have my
exposures up right now. I think I was probably at
marketer slightly above market. On Kirk, for me, it was just,
you know, he, he put up 1100 yards and eight touchdowns last
year. And I think I I agree with what
you're saying with the narrative of Ridley coming and then taking
snaps like that scared me a little bit.
But it's also a guy who hadn't really played football in a
couple years. So I think in my drafts I was
just saying, you know what? What if Kirk can just be a
little bit? What if, you know, Lawrence
takes the jump? Kirk just maintains like this.
Sort of. You know, Quasi alpha share of
the team's offense, which he kind of did last year, right?
Not not a huge target alpha, but he was the leading target earner
there. What if he just maintains that
and the Jaguars get a lot better?
I did sort of see the upside just for the overall offensive
environment. But yeah, I'm a little, I'm a
little concerned, You know, it does make sense in two wide
receiver sets. You know when you get into the
red zone that Zay Jones, he's a much bigger body than Christian
Kirk, probably a better blocker for those type of situations.
It does make sense that he might get squeezed out in some of
those. So yeah, I think it's fair to
dock Kirk. I still would probably.
I view him similar to Lockett, JSN.
I wouldn't dock him much farther than that.
I think he's sort of safely in a tear with those guys, I guess.
Actually, I'm thinking about it and maybe I'd be more likely to
draft him now because if he falls 10 spots, I can see teams
where I'm more likely to like or if he kind of gets into a spot
where like you'll be at a turn and Kirk and Lawrence are going
closer to each other, you know. So structurally it just makes
sense like I can see that happening but just not a
because. Lawrence goes in the middle of
the round, and now right? Doesn't he go in the middle?
And then Ridley is now starting to creep up to the Lawrence.
Lawrence is such a a a random faller like I will be doing like
I was doing a I was doing like a DK $10 slow.
And I opened up this morning. The DK app was down and I
thought I just autoed on like 20 drafts and I was like panicking.
But I opened they they fixed it. It was, it ended up being OK.
But I opened it up and I was like, I think I was on the clock
at 86 and Lawrence was there and I was like, well, sure, I'll
just take him. Like, I'll just take, like, I'll
just, I'll take, I'll take Evan Ingram or Tank Bigsby or like,
whatever. Just because I think quarterback
fault. This is such a a random point.
But quarterback followers on DraftKings like, don't look that
gift horse in the mouth, because quarterbacks never fall on.
DraftKings Give it, then it'll take it the way at quarterback
you will. You will get locked out in
DraftKings like I just took. I just took Derek Carr at 1:25
and 1:00 because all the quarterbacks were gone and I was
like, I'm going to get. I'm going to Sam Howe as my
quarterback too. If I don't do something here,
but it it'll I think late quarterback on DraftKings.
If you get a a faller, a 10/15 spot faller.
Those are potentially very unique teams for the three-week
spread on DraftKings. Yeah, not to get sidetracked in
this conversation, but that's something I've started doing
more this year. Where in the past, like if I had
Naked Burrow Fall 20 picks, fast ADP and I didn't have thing
Answer Chase, I'd be like that's a fish pick to take him.
Now I'm kind of, I'm that guy where if the quarterback falls
like 2 rounds past ADP, I'm just saying like assuming I didn't
already draft my homes or Josh Allen or something like that.
I'm just saying, you know what? I'll take Burrow and I'll get
one of the cheapest like Burrow Irv Smith stacks in the
tournament like that. That could be viable, right?
Like so I think a lot of people would probably say that's dumb
to do that. But once one of these elite
pocket passing quarterback falls like 2 rounds past ADP, I'm just
like, I'm just clicking it. I also think it's it's important
not that you couldn't do that on.
Underdog you certainly could. But on DraftKings, like, there
is also this dynamic of the quarterbacks don't tend to drop
and then you you will like you will get locked out at
quarterback for real, get locked out at quarterback.
And nothing feels worse than trying to save a draft with
being like, OK, I'll take you just and choose her and then
I'll take Mac Jones and then I'll take like, it's just a
nightmare. Like I had an underdog.
I had an underdog one this morning where like I got locked
out, like the two stacks I was setting up.
And so I just like this team is dead.
Like it's just a bad team. It's a bad and then it's like
the teams, like there's a lot of the teams are bad because you
look through and it's like, well, someone reached 10 picks
for Geno Smith, even though I had JSN and lock it.
I don't know why they did that, but that's it, you know.
And it's like, so I think if you're going to do that,
Draftings is, it's a very logical place to do it because.
You're protecting that team as well.
In a sense, you're scooping a value, but you're also making
sure you don't get locked out in a format where that can happen.
Yeah, let's move on here to Khalil Herbert.
This is an interesting 1. The Bear starters only played
seven snaps, but Herbert did play 100% of those snaps, with
the starters the order of running backs entering the game.
It was Herbert with the starters, then Foreman came on
next, then Tristan Ebner, who I believe left an injury, and then
Rochon. So that's sort of the default
you know as of now ordering in the Bears backfield.
I hope this one was notable because it was talked about how
Herbert and Foreman were rotating with the ones, but
there were multiple drives the starters got.
Admittedly, they were short drives because there were huge
plays from both Herbert and DJ Moore in this one, so not a ton
of snaps, but Herbert did seem to have sort of a lock.
On the snaps of the stars and this one, Davis, what are your
thoughts on Khalil Herbert coming out of this game?
Are you moving them up at all based on this sort of small
sample of snaps? So this is the kind of stuff I
actually am taking note of. Like I think there's some
preseason stuff you should take note up, Some stuff like the
Eagle stuff that will that we will get into.
It's like, well, actually, if you look at them in the
preseasons past, like they've done weird stuff like this.
And then Siriani said after the game, like, oh, I want all these
guys to get tackled before Week 1, whatever.
But I think it's like a just a pretty clear signal from a Bear
staff that's like trying to figure out how to actually have
a good offense, like a functional offense that Herbert
played all the snaps with Fields got a design target.
I don't care what he did with it.
I mean, I guess it's better for him to score a long touchdown
than to like fall over and fumble or whatever, but that's
not really what you care about. And that foreman was playing
with the straight backups. And Rochon, who I still love and
still think is going to play a role, was playing with like the
third stringers for a little bit, like all that stuff.
I I think cumulatively you look at it all, it's a clear signal
that Herbert is the guy they plan on giving the work too
early now. Does that mean he's going to
retain it all year? Does that mean if he blows up,
you know, he gets fields killed three times in past protection,
that they're not going to change something?
No. But it is I think relevant
information that they view him as the primary running back to
start the season. I think that because we didn't
really know. I mean, I think we just really
did not know how they viewed these guys like Foreman playing
in the second quarter is to me matters.
Yeah, it matters to me too. I moved up Herbert a fair
amount. I don't think you want to get
carried away because I do think there's like, what does this
mean? It means that he's likely the
number one back to start the year.
But that does not mean that he's going to keep the job, right?
Rochon could come in and through the past protection side of
things, get on the field and then look good as a rusher and
kind of come in and eat that rushing work over the course of
the year. Because Herbert, the red flag
for him is that he's not a great past protector.
He there's all these stories about how he's, you know, been
been boxing and stuff to try to get better at past protecting.
Like, I don't know, maybe that'll work.
Maybe it won't, but. You know, there's a reason
they're talking about it because it it's a reason to take him off
the field. And I think odds are they
probably will use Rochon or someone else as a pass protector
and that gives someone else an opportunity to come take this
job over the course of the year. And so you want to keep that in
the back of your mind when you're when you're thinking
about selecting Herbert. But like Herbert, verse a J
Dillon, don't. I want Herbert if I need early
season production. No, because the Dillon thesis is
so clear. The dill the Dillon thesis is
that he runs hot on touchdowns, that that this coaching staff
just gives him a shit ton of short yardage.
Or I'm not saying I'm not saying it.
I mean, that was the thesis last year and it didn't play out and
he's a lot cheaper. But also, I mean, I think the
Packers are just going to run. They're.
Gonna run a lot. They're gonna run a lot.
And the Bears are gonna run a lot too.
But you also got a segment out 30% of that production to the
starting quarterback, which you don't have to do with the
Packers. Sure.
But I mean, like if I'm if I have, if I need an RB 2, you
know, I'm already thinking if you have Breece Hall and Alvin
Kamara. If I have Breece Hall and Alvin
Kamara, or if I just have Breece Hall, If I just have, you know,
even if I just have like Austin Eckler and I just punted RB 2.
Because guys like Samaji P Ryan are jumping up in my mind, like
do I want Samaji P Ryan or AJ Dillon?
You know, P Ryan goes quite a bit after.
But to me, I'm like, I want Herbert.
I want Herbert over Dylan anytime.
I need those running back points early in the season because I
think you can count. Like at least he gives.
I think he's gonna give you that.
Maybe it's only for a couple weeks, but that's that's
helpful. It's hard to see, yeah, it's
hard to see him losing the job before week one at this point
unless he gets injured, right? Like he's gonna get the first
crack at it and. 95% of scenarios at this point.
I think it is, it is tough, right?
Like Dylan and Charbonnay, those are two guys I was thinking of
like I see how the nut upside case for those two guys is
higher cuz you know they're more proven as pass catchers.
You know they're in offenses where I think the total pie of
running back points is probably higher than in Chicago and an
offense with Justin Fields scrambling and not really
checking down much the running back.
So I think the nut ceiling for Dylan and Charbonnay is higher,
but like the. 60 to 85% outcomes I think are now like firmly
better for Herbert. I would think so that that's a
it's but how much how much contingent value how much
contingent value does AJ Dillon have of Aaron Jones gets hurt
because they they're they're their third running backs are
Tyler Goodson and Patrick Taylor who are and those guys are in
like a camp battle like the coaching staff clearly doesn't
feel good about either one of them like AJ Dillon could be he
really AJ Dillon is sort of like reverse osmosis Tony Pollard
where he's like maybe the more talented guy in his backfield
but instead of being the the satellite back he's like the
grinder back but the the continued value is sort of
similar. I think he's reversed Tony
Pollard in the sense that, like, he should be the best back in
his backfield because he's good. But Aaron Jones is good and Zeke
was not good. That's sort of the issue, yeah.
Yeah, yeah. It's an interesting one though I
I do think Herbert should rise and I think you know I was kind
of considering the Charbonnay the Walker, sorry Charbonnay.
Dylan Tier, head of Herbert firmly.
Now I think I'll have them all grouped together and.
That's what kind of matters. I just brought them up.
I I have one spot behind Dylan, but if I needed the early season
production I would just take Herbert.
Yeah, let's talk Jalen Warren here.
This is another really interesting situation.
So the Steelers played I believe two series with the offense in
preseason week one, and they split the snaps pretty dead down
the middle between Jalen, Warren, Naji, Harris.
Out of 10 snaps, Warren actually played six and Naji played four
Similar amounts of route runs targets.
Anyways, obviously a really small sample, but this I think
is a pretty. Noteworthy item here because I
think it is a signal that you know I don't expect Warren to be
leading this committee 6040 I do think pretty strongly now
whereas last year Naji. Started as sort of the clear
workhorse back and Warren really had to fight to carve out a roll
by the end of the year. I think this year it's going to
start like much closer to, you know, maybe a 6040 committee in
favor of Naji, something along those lines.
So I think this is pretty notable.
Pat, have you moved up Jalen Warren?
I imagine you were already pretty high in him.
Is this sort of got any higher in your rankings than he was
before? Yeah, I mean, sort of like my
rankings incorporate ADP. So we're at this point where
like. Like did I move him up?
Yeah. Like I moved him up.
But you're not gonna, you're not gonna really even know about it
unless the market gets gets wild because he's already ahead of
ADP significantly and now it's just a little further.
So I mean, I've, I've been kind of, there's sort of like a
narrative with Naji, like some of the pushback of like, oh,
like. They're going to ride him like
they don't want to. He was hurt last year.
Jill Moore didn't play as much as you think he did, yadda
yadda. Yeah, but like, I think that,
you know, if that's kind of where you're at, I would
recommend just like going and looking at Naji snap share from
his rookie season where he played 84% of snaps and then
going and looking at last year's snap share where he played 66%
of snaps and wonder. You know, if maybe, maybe that
Nazi they're gonna ride. Nazi thesis is as strong as you
think. Because they already have.
He was hurt. He had to lose.
Frank bro. Yeah, well, he's been hurt every
both of us. Bro.
Please, bro, please. He was hurt.
Bro, please. He was.
Bro, please. I'm telling you.
Please. Remember he's heard his rookie
year too. And yeah, I think Warren is
gonna be, I think he'll have a role.
I mean, I think he's gonna be a backup in a sense and and kind
of rotate in, but you're getting.
In best ball the potential for a few catches, maybe a touchdown,
right? Cuz he is coming in and and he's
the he's the best pass protector on the team and he's big enough
he's like £215 or maybe he gets in the end zone for you a couple
weeks. It is mostly a contingent place.
Still like I don't think anything's really changed.
Like I still am skeptical that he takes the job.
I think he's the better back and I don't really see any evidence
to the contrary, to be honest, but.
I don't think the Steelers are going to just give him the job
like that's. That would definitely be pretty
surprising, given what we know about the NFL.
Yeah, Davis, you have any thoughts on Jalen?
Warren Well, So what I thought, well, OK, so the original thesis
and Gretch has written about this and we've talked about it
here, is that like year three is kind of the year when you give
up on just giving rookies, the highly drafted rookies playing
time just because you spent a first round pick on them.
It's what happened to Clyde over to Lair last year.
That's sort of the base case for just not giving Naji the
touches. But then the other thing that
was interesting was that, and this could just be a preseason
experiment and it could totally change when the bullets start
flying, is that Naji stayed. He came off the field on 2 long
down distance snaps, but then they also played Jail and Warren
on a first and 10, which they very rarely did last year.
So maybe more of like a rotational style basis where
it's not OK Naji's the Grinder and Jalen Warren is the the scat
back. But actually we just play these
two guys both and it just sort of doesn't matter.
That's why. I mean, my highest drafted guy
last year was Rashad White, and part of it is that I got to bet
against an incumbent starter who I thought was looking pretty
vulnerable and Leonard Fournette.
Part of it is that I was getting to bet on a guy who can catch
passes, but the other big part of it is that Rashad White is
217 pounds, Jalen Warren is £215, he's 5/8, he's short guy,
but he's he's compact, he he packs a punch like we're getting
not a scat back here, We're getting a guy who can rotate
series, you know? So maybe that's the outcome we
get here. Like we got with Rashad White
last year, by the end of the season they were fully rotating.
Series makes Nausea a very dangerous pick I think in the
same way for that was last year and like Rashad White didn't
really pay off in a huge way last year.
I think it a below average advance rate like ninth round
ADP. But Warren is cheaper.
And also like I feel good about making that bet.
Like if I can make the bet where the guy forces his way into like
a split by the end of the year. And the contingent value never
materializes like Oh well you know it's not always going to
materialize but I think it's there.
Well, the contingent value doesn't materialize a lot of the
time. I think that is like a Reebs
actually is the most intelligent guy like when I do drafts of
them at realizing this that like we can wish cast on all these
guys. But like the contingent value,
you know your Tony Pollard comes in and scores 30 points for
three games or Alexander Madison gets two spot starts against the
Lions. Like those are truly best case
scenarios like 1 starters don't get injured in a way that you
anticipate like it just doesn't happen.
Like not every running back gets hurt and then also you know you
get your Isaiah Crowell's and your Emir Abdullah's you know
the coming in there to to steal snaps here and there a little
bit. The the nice thing about Warren
is that I think he he does have both though.
He's got a little bit of standalone and he's got quite a
good bit of, you know, of of contingent value because they
don't really seem to like McFarland and Snell's not even
on the roster anymore and stuff like that.
Yeah, there's been some very minor Anthony McFarland buzz
this off season, but it's like guys, he's been on the roster.
Make the roster. He's been on the roster for four
years now and is like barely played.
Like I yeah, I think what you said that is true.
Like the positive buzz on him is like meaning he's gonna make the
roster. Not that he's due for any type
of role. You know, we saw last year it
was very much. I think Warren missed a little
bit of time and that's when Snell factored in last year, but
it was very strictly A2 man backfield last year for like the
entire season. Besides I think a couple of
games where Jalen Warren was banged up.
Besides that, it was Naji, Jalen Warren, nobody else, which I
think you love to see. We never really got to see if
the contingent upside case became a reality because Naji
didn't miss any time, but I feel pretty good.
About it, given that Jalen Warne has shown, you know, he's a big
back, he's shown he can do a little in the passing game, you
know, I think he can handle the short yardage, so.
And there's a price pretty good about it.
There's a price at which like he better be the Alexander Madison
level backup, you know, like and that yeah, price is probably
like he's getting there, getting there.
It's trending that direction. Yeah, but he's, but he's, I
don't think he's there yet. Like if you're taking him even
the 11th round, which is you're probably, you're reaching ahead
of ADP to take him in the 11. Well, I think if he gets to that
range of guys we were just talking about the Herbert
Charbonne, Dylan range like that.
I think he's like a bad clique. Yeah, like, I feel comfortable
drafting him ahead of Damian Harris.
Maybe we'll talk about that situation later.
I feel comfortable drafting him ahead of Jamal Williams.
You know, I think it'd have to get up to like, I guess maybe
I'm low on P Ryan, so I'm not a good data point for that.
But I think like him versus P Ryan, like what's really the
difference there? I mean, I think I'd prefer
Purin's. Gonna play Purin's gonna play a
lot, I think, I guess. But Duvante's already like,
fully. It's what do you need clear for
contact. Like, I don't know.
He's gonna play a bit. But like later the season, who
do I think has a better chance of playing a lot.
I think it's really close. And then it's like Steelers
offense versus Denver's offense. I don't know.
It's close. It's.
Probably a wash, probably, yeah. Probably a wash.
Yeah. Yeah, yeah, let's talk Rondell
here, This one. So this one's interesting.
A couple things to talk through. One, a lot of the Cardinals key
starters sat out the game, I don't believe due to injury.
Just rest for the key starters. That was James Connor, Marquis
Brown and Trey McBride all didn't play.
They just got the day off. So I think those guys are like
key locked in starters in the offense, which we all expected.
Then the other wide receivers that played it was Michael
Wilson and Zach Pascal on the outside and Rondell Moore was
limited to slot only he did. You know the one positive note?
Sorry Davis, he did play pretty clearly ahead of our guy, Greg
Dorch. So at least it.
Appears I've completely I've completely capitulated on dorch.
I think I've taken Michael Wilson and every draft I've done
for the last four days I I'm like working my way up to like
16%. Michael Wilson.
I I am. I'm done.
I'm done with the Dorch takes. I love it anyways, so I think
that's interesting. And so there's two reasons I'm
out on more at his price. One, I think baked into his
price a little bit was the chance to be played in two wide
receiver sets. Last year he actually did do
that quite a bit, just by the side.
So it's like okay. He did it last year, maybe he
can do it again this year. The preseason usage was really
bearish for him on that. And then number two, I think
there's some chance that it could be in three wide receiver
sets, at least in for some percentage of three wide
receiver sets. It could be Marquis Brown in the
slot and then Pascal and Michael Wilson on the outside because
Marquis Brown has always been a guy who gets a lot of play in
the slot in three wide receiver sets.
So I don't think that's going to be like the base rotation for
them. But I don't think it's a
situation where we can say more is projected for 100% of the
snaps and three wide receiver sets particularly by the end of
the year. You know they do seem to like
Zach Pascal on the outside and maybe they prefer that
alignment. So to me it's just I don't know.
I do get like the targets for route run stuff with more I get
we liked him as a prospect but man we're we're paying a pretty
high price for a guy who looks like at best a slot only wide
receiver on the Clayton tune lead Arizona Cardinal.
And I'm just like man give me Michael Gallup.
Give me Darnell Mooney. Give me Jacoby Myers.
Even give me guys going later Marvin Mims Jonathan Mingo.
Like I just don't get why we have to pay this much of A
premium for the slot only wide receiver on the Arizona
Cardinals even DPJ. Like, why should DPJ go 30 picks
later than Rondale Moore? Like, that's a much better
offense. I think there's.
Actually, just like, can we stop with Donald?
I don't know. I just.
He might lose the job, is why by the end of the year.
Rondale like I if Rondale ends up at like wide receiver 65,
I'll probably just draft him. Like I don't know.
He see like Rondale just so is what he is.
He's gonna have a bunch of he's gonna have a bunch of bad games
and you just need him to do 3. Like sick Rondale Moore.
Things like his first career start.
He scored a 75 yard touchdown against the Vikings.
Like just do that for me three times and he's a good pick.
Yeah, I do think that where he was going and even where he
currently still is going, isn't is bad because if you're taking
a receiver there, you probably need that receiver.
Yes, that's like. Your wide receiver 5, probably.
You know, like if you're going receiver there, you're like, oh,
I'd better take care of this before it gets really ugly,
like. Well, guess what?
It already did get ugly, because you're taking a guy who's a slot
receiver. It's a great point with Marquis
Brown that had not. I haven't heard anyone bring
that up. That had not occurred to me.
But yeah, he's played 30% of his career snaps in the slot, 35%.
Last year. We heard for a while that Zach
Pascal was was like a guy who was going to be someone
involved, seemed to be ahead of door, just the wide receiver for
it would not be surprising if they used him on the outside so
they can move Brown into the slot.
They don't trust more on the outside.
You got to keep the spirit of Cliff Kingsbury alive by playing
like a slow guy who earns no targets ahead of like the young
fast play Who was the He was an old Texas Andre.
Andre Bacalia was playing, was playing like 70% of the snaps
ahead of Dorch and Rondale at one point.
Who was the other guy? Antoine Wesley.
Antoine Wesley because. That was it.
There we go.
He was a Texas Tech guy that Cliff recruited back in the day.
But you know, it's a similar thing because Wesley was playing
on the outside. Yep.
Yeah. And they didn't want to play
Rondell Moore on the outside. And so, like, basically like
anyone in the NFL is eligible to play ahead of Rondell Moore on
the outside is the problem because he's he's very small.
It makes sense, right? So, so, yeah, I I think, I
think, yeah, you don't want to be drafting Rondell Moore where
he's going right now. Like.
I've lowered him substantially and again, partly because like
he he wasn't really priced as a OK, I guess we'll see what.
What we get out of this dude and And how high is the ceiling,
right. Like, if I want ceiling, why
don't I just take Marvin? That great.
Ceiling. You know, why wouldn't I take
Jonathan Mingo? What?
Like, let me actually bet on a rookie who could emerge down the
stretch into a big role. I don't think I have that with
Moore. Like he's capped in terms of his
his snaps probably. Yeah.
I never really, I I never really
got it with more. I think there was a brief period
where people brought up look he did play in two wide receiver
sets last year. But man, anything Cliff
Kingsbury did last year, I'm kind of thrown out in the
garbage with this. No coaching staff.
Like I don't think using Rondell Moore on the outside in two wide
receiver sets was a successful way to run an offense.
It certainly didn't work very well last year for the
Cardinals. So I'm kind of, I'm kind of
tossing that data point out. Let's move on.
Here it's been tearing up camp, like, yeah.
The beat writers are like he is the dude.
Like he's playing on the outside.
If he's not, maybe Pascal starts week one or something on the
outside, but he's holding the job for Wilson.
Like there's a guy they like on the outside alongside Brown,
which again is like you. It just it.
I don't know. I don't really.
It's very difficult to see how on earth Rondo Moore would would
not just be a slot only guy at this point.
It's hard. It's hard to see.
And the price again slot only guys like I compared him to
Hunter Renfro in a tweet. Maybe that was like a bit of an
exaggeration but it's like that's if you want like a locked
in slot only guy like you can get that like very late in
drafts like I don't get why. Again, Rondell, you can say he
has more upside than Hunter Renfro.
Whatever, man. I mean, Rondell has zero 1000
yard seasons. Hunter Runfro put up a.
Runfro has 1000 yard season. Runfro is pretty good.
I take Runfro sometimes. I never tell anyone about it.
But I do it, I think. I think Renfro is a Chad pick.
Honestly I like Renfro, he was. I took him whenever two years
ago when he absolutely smashes cuz it's like hey man, if I'm
buying the slot only Chad. Pick in this context.
Like Chad Pic is being like I don't care what fucking virgins
on Twitter say when I screenshot my teams like I think Renfro
like I think Renfro might be better than Jacoby Myers.
It's a high come to Renfro. In this context, in this
context, because it's it's anti cabal.
It's anti it's anti the best ball thought leaders you know
like anytime, like like. No one posts screenshots of
their teams being like I took Naji Harris.
And Miles Sanders on this team and everyone's like, yes, sick
dude. Like the people who draft those
guys don't share their teams. You know, it's like, it's like
they don't wanna, they're not involved in the conversation.
They get shamed. I've been consistently ahead of
ATP on Hunter Renfro and I'm at 9% on Underdog.
So yeah. I'm just just we love to see my
life, dude. High tea.
That's the you know if you're gonna take slot only guys on bad
offenses, you know take him. Take him in the 16th round.
Not in, not in the 11th and 12th.
It's. Good advice.
Let's go to the biggest risers here.
Yeah. Cream on tops the list.
I don't really wanna talk about that cuz I don't really get.
Don't. Don't do this.
This is stupid. Like, don't.
Yeah, he's probably gonna sign somewhere, but Nope.
Anyways. There there is a.
There is a take away here which is that.
Kareem Hunt could literally like sign as like the 5th running
back on. I don't know what's the most
crowded running backed up chart in the.
Like he could sign for the Buckles or something.
Yeah. The Bucks, yeah.
Yeah, yeah he could. Yeah, the Eagles, the Bucks,
whatever. And his ADP would move up by 10
spots. Like if you're cuz you're
seeing. And this is relevant because
Zeke falls and drafts now. Fournette falls and drafts now.
They've all, they've all met with teams.
They've all. Been interested in playing
football this year. Hunt was actually the one I was
worried about because I hadn't heard anything about him.
Now he's looking like very likely to play this year.
These guys are all unlikely to willful or us and they're all
going to move up a lot in a DP when they sign with someone as
Hunt. I mean, Hunt going to the Saints
was like before this Miller stuff was like a worst case
scenario. It's like there's a starter.
There's a young guy, there's a guy they signed to.
Be the fill in, dude. Like, why would we even want
Hunt if he's with the Saints? But yet his ADP moved up.
Yeah, that's true. It doesn't matter.
That's the lesson. It doesn't matter.
The landing spot. I think Hopkins is a good
example of this too. Probably one of the worst
landing spots in Tennessee for him, right?
And he, I think, moves slightly up or at least stayed put, even
when there was, you know, upside outcomes on the table like the
Chiefs and the Bills. That could have sent us a DP
Skyrocketing. Anyways, it's it's weird how the
markets react to this stuff. Reminder, this is not like the
stock market, guys. There's still some weird
inefficient behavior in these markets.
And yeah, there's not bots, just.
Yeah, I don't remember who made this point, but it's so smart.
I've been one of you guys. I don't.
But like the idea of I I draft teams, not exposures.
You know, like that. That seems sort of relevant.
Like sure, maybe you get. Maybe you get a shit ton of
closing line value on Kareem Hunt, but then like, you've got
Kareem Hunt on your teams and he might like just be.
Yeah, now you have Kareem Hunt. Congrats.
You won the CLV lottery.
You have to use Kareem Hunt's points all year.
Yeah, don't. Don't search for Julio.
My Julio Jones CLV takes in August last year.
I think, Pat, you would have walked on that grenade with me,
but. I was there, I was.
I was having. I had some victory perhaps in
like July when he signed up with the box and like look at the CLV
value surprisingly didn't want any money on those Vilio Jones
teams. I don't know.
I don't know what happened, but. The one thing that into it.
Look, if we're all gonna step on, you know, Leonard Fournette
landmines, what I will say is at least you won't draft any tenth
round Leonard Fournette. You know when he signs with
whatever team like you're gonna have all the line of four net
you need. You're gonna have all the Zeke
Ellie you need, right? So someone's gonna be drafting
10th, 11th round Zeke when he signs somewhere right.
It won't be you at least if you get it now.
Now you will have dead roster spot where you drafted but but
at least you won't take him in the 11th.
Yeah, it's. Good advice.
Anyways, let's let's talk Tank Dell.
This one is a little convoluted, so I'll try to.
We got, we got. This is the pursuit of
slappiness. Pic of the year that that
amazing video. That amazing video that Lou
made. He needs to he needs to do a
remix with showing screenshots of Tank Dell at a pick 136 like
guys. He's fun.
He's got a cool name. He was so good in college.
We are talking about like a like 2-2 Atwell but maybe the wide
receiver 5 on the Houston Texans.
I know, I know. He's fun.
I know he's fun. But this this ain't it Chief.
Yeah. Like he he literally I think is
the wide receiver 5 on the Texans even after his good
preseason game. And I know he scored a touchdown
but the touchdown was an accident.
It was like a bomb. Yeah, it was like a bomb.
Yeah, but look what that did for Sky Moore.
He's a starter now. Oh my God.
Also his second biggest highlight of of the night was
like like a screen, like a slant pattern and like pre event
coverage. We're literally, he didn't even
have to run a route like he said to run wide open and then he
took it like 20 yards like down the field.
It's like this is like the preseason highlight
overreaction. I think it was also that this
was the first preseason game so it got a lot of like spotlighted
attention. Totally this this is bad guys.
So no. OK, I'll break it down a little
bit. Why Davis is saying he's the
wide receiver 5 because that might seem outlandish, but I
think it's actually like close to the correct take.
Noah Brown, which is surprising, and Robert Woods both got the
night off, which I think actually suggests they're like
locked in starters. Surprising with Brown makes
sense with Woods, Nikko and Tank Del and John Mechi were the
three wide receivers that played with the starters in the
preseason game. So I think my lean right now
would be it's Niko Woods and Noah Brown is the starting three
wide receiver set for the Texans with Mechi and Dell kind of
competing for that wide receiver force lot to start the year
again. If you want to take Dell with
your 18th round pick, I think that's totally fine.
I was doing that a little bit, yeah.
That's totally fine. Yeah.
The rise in a DP like this isn't
a guy that I'm. I'm chasing.
I guess 193 sure that if you take.
It there, but I like. Michael Wilson a lot more and
extremely unpopular. Take like everyone's gonna turn
the stream off right now. I I think Taekwon Thornton is a
better pick than him, too. Well, you are.
That is a bad that's how are you?
I I removed Taekwon Thornton from my 2:50 and I think it's
over. I yeah, I don't think.
I don't think it's over. I don't think it's over.
The Patriots have just have such a lack of got like the.
I've said this quote on shows a billion times about the
Patriots, and it remains true even after they had an entire
offseason to try and fix it. If NFL teams were to line up
their 53 guys and run a relay race, the Patriots would finish
dead last. It's still true.
They still don't have anyone who's fast.
They don't have anyone who's explosive.
Taekwon is the only guy on their offense who is fast, and I think
that over the course. Of Bourne's explosive.
They just have hated him. He's.
Like, yeah, I mean, he's a billion years old and he'll get
benched like so. I don't know, this might be a
little like Belichick dog house stuff, but the preseason
suggested that Taekwon was the wide receiver 6 on the team.
So Juju Devante and Juju Devante in Bourne all rested and then
Booty and Demario Douglas started ahead of Keshan.
Booty is ahead of them. Yeah, I'm old enough.
I'm old enough to remember doing this with enough Patriots guys
in the preseason. Little little bit of Zach
Sudfeld. Anyone who is The Who is the UD
who is the UDFA Cat Who is the the UDFA wide receiver that
everyone lost their goddamn minds about.
I mean there was like I want to say 20 wrote of his articles
about this guy. You're not talking about Malcolm
Mitchell, are you? No, he was a.
Third round pick. Or something.
He was an undrafted free agent who had like a good preseason
game and a good camp, and he never played.
This would have been, this would have been like 2014 Patriots.
I don't remember anyway, anyways, like.
I'm probably played over Stedman Bailey.
The Patriots can't draft wide receivers.
Kenbrel Tomkins Kenbrel Tomkins. That's right.
That's. Yeah.
I mean, OK, that's fair. But like, we're not talking
about Demario Douglas, who is that guy who probably is ahead
of Taekwon Thornton, but like, maybe isn't right because it
could be his preseason. He could be Kenbrel Tompkins.
But we're not saying draft that, dude.
We're just saying, like, yet again, the Patriots seem to be
like very suspect of a super suspect prospect that they
overdrafted. Taekwon Thornton was not a very
good prospect. He was fast, and that was like
really the only thing you could say for him other than he was a
second round pick. He was not efficient last year,
and he now appears to have tumbled down the Patriots depth
chart. I mean, like he scores more
points this year. Taekwon Thornton or Mac Hollins?
Hollins. Pretty easily.
Hollins, isn't it? The answers I don't know.
I don't. Know I don't know, man.
Hollands, his preseason photos. He looks pretty, looks pretty
big out there. That's the guy currently at 2:50
right now, my rank. So right now I have Hollands
ranked and Thornton not. I take some round 20 Thornton on
DraftKings. I'm not taking either these guys
on underdog now because I'm just, I literally every time I
start my draft. I do the star method and I star
Kenneth Gainwell and I star Michael Wilson, so I don't
forget to take them. Dude, that's super smart.
I forgot. Yeah, I need to be.
Doing that, it's really important to do with risers
because someone might just snap them off on you.
So I take round 13, Kenneth Gainwell, I don't care.
I take round 17. Michael Wilson, I don't care.
I'm taking these guys. Yeah we'll get to gain.
Well, the Eagles stuff. Let's talk quickly on Musgrave.
He's slightly ahead of gain Well in the risers.
This this is pretty straightforward.
He just played all the sass with the starters.
Played pretty clearly ahead of Tyler Craft.
Tyler Crop. Tucker Craft.
Forget Tucker Craft. Tucker Craft.
He's all these side ends sound the same to me.
The one thing I'll note is Josiah de Guerra, who played
like a limited role for the Packers last year was out due to
injury. So like, I think that adds like
a tiny bit of uncertainty into like maybe Deguara plays a
little bit and they have some role for him.
But anyways, I think it's. I'm not really, I'm just
mentioning that as sort of like a footnote.
I really do think this is the Luke Musgrave show in Green Bay
and I'm. I'm pretty happy drafting him
where he goes, like I think you're getting starting tight
end, 17th, 18th round, who second round pick, elite
athlete. I think there's some upside
there. So I have, I'm slightly
overweight on Musgrave, but yeah, curious how you guys are
playing that situation. I got no issues, yeah.
It's a catch up situation. For me, smart, yeah, Same
agreed. Yeah, I was out on Musgrave
earlier, cuz I was like to me, not as good of a prospect as.
The other highly drafted guys, because we never really got the
production from him, We had like one, it's like literally two
games. He had like a couple good games
to close his career and then he got hurt.
And then he's super athletic and then he had the draft capital
and he's kind of like a field, like a seam stretcher type of
guy, which is an interesting archetype at tight end for sure.
So there's like reasons to be interested.
But I was like, I don't know, they drafted craft too.
Like, is he even gonna play that much?
The answer to that question seems to be yes, he's gonna play
and now I now I want to be in. I'm ahead of ADP on him slightly
in the rankings now and I'm trying to make sure I have some
exposure. We recently took him in a main
event draft, actually head of mayor.
Which is not something I was. Doing before this.
Liam was riding hard for Luke, Musgrave and and Kyle and I said
no, we want to play, we want, we want Hunter Henry and so our DMS
were just nothing. I am showing us like 1.8
DraftKings points for for Luke Musgrave.
Just being like you guys are idiots dude.
Can't believe you made me take honor, Henry.
Yeah, but I I don't want to. I'll probably end up underweight
Musgrave overall, but I don't want to be.
He's not someone I want to fade position on because like, I
don't really think Romeo Dobbs is that good.
I'm not sure if Jayden Reed is that good and Christian Watson
is very good at a thing, but I don't know if Jordan Love is
going to be all that great at deep passing.
And I don't know how complete Christian Watson is.
So there could be targets available here too, like the
starting tight end for the Packers could be like pretty
interesting. If it's clearly Musgrave, then
yeah, that's someone I might need to, like, scramble to get a
little more exposure to. Yeah, I'm with you.
I like the upside from Musgrave. And yeah, the back door stack
element too. I've been.
Put into some corners where the Jordan Love Jaden Reed, Luke
Musgrave stack kind of comes together than drafts.
And I kind of like that from upside perspective.
You know, who knows what we're getting with love, but I think
there's at least some juice in a good season for Jordan Love in
Green Bay. So let's talk the Eagles running
backs. I think people are probably
generally familiar with this, but basically what happened,
both Boston Scott and Kenny Gainwell got the veteran rest
treatment for the preseason. That normally suggests that
they're ahead. On the depth chart of newcomers
DeAndre Swift and Rashad Penny for during the game, Swift
played the first series, I believe, maybe the first two
series. I'll look into it.
And then Penny played 1/4 after that, so.
If you just kind of take it at face value that would suggest
the depth chart would be you know gain.
Well, Scott Swift Penny I think it's still very up in the air.
You know I don't think that's locked in but yeah, pretty clear
to me that gain well at least is a pretty massive value where
he's going. I'm curious Davis, you said
mentioned your high on game. Well, how high would you vault,
gain well up up draft boards and keep Jason's rise.
So he was already my most drafted player on DraftKings and
I. Think he was my most yeah, he's
my most drafted player underdog as well, so I already really
liked him. But so really it was, it was
just an indication that my base thought was right, which was
that this team is not planning on giving DeAndre Swift 200
touches. Like maybe he will get 200
touches. So I but I actually think it's
less about Swift and it's more about Penny, which is that.
Rashad Penny was playing in the second quarter with I don't even
know who the other quarterback is for the Eagles or whatever,
but like the Penny thing seems tenuous now.
To credit the Swift drafters and the Penny drafters and stuff
Nick Ciriani did say after the game.
I don't want the first time that these guys get tackled to be in
Week 1. Swift or a Scott and Gainwell
are going to play next week or whatever now.
The other thing that literally no one wants to talk about is
that these annoying Eagles beat writers, specifically Elliott
Shore Parks who is like one of the worst beat writers ever, but
he he will not stop talking about Trey Serman, just will not
stop with the Trace Erman stuff there.
There is at least a chance, let's call it 10%, that Trace
Erman makes the team over Rashad Penny and that the team creates
a phantom injury for Tracer for. For your penny and puts him on
the designated for return IR it's it's enough that my base
thought on gain well, I think was right, which was that he's
the most familiar with the offense.
He's the most familiar with the playbook.
He played more snaps than Miles Sanders in the Super Bowl, so
he's going to play. And the penny stuff is less
locked in than the market was expecting beforehand.
Yeah, the game. Well, like I was into him.
The guy in my discord kind of got me to rethink that.
A couple months ago I was like I was very into him predraft and
then I was like I guess you know it's not going to happen.
And then it's like you know he's he's very cheap and he's good.
But I I was at, I'm at 12% now on Underdog and 15% on
DraftKings. But honestly, I feel like I
would really like some more. And I've been over the weekend I
was, I was reaching for him, getting him in like the 12th
round if I needed to, trying to push the 13th.
But then he, I was getting snipe for me sometimes.
So that's kind of where I ended up on him.
Like I'm, I'm kind of willing to push him up a decent amount
because yeah, I think you're getting some kind of role from a
player who I think is good on a good offense.
And that's right. Like, I think Kenneth Gain well
is good. I just was really worried about
how much playing time he was going to get.
And he goes ahead of running backs who are on bad offenses or
offenses that are don't project to be anywhere near as efficient
as Philadelphia. That's that's part of it for me.
Like, let's see here he goes directly ahead of Devon Singh.
Or yeah, he goes directly behind Kendra Miller, who's dead.
Roshon Johnson Who we like, but like I like gain well more most
who I kind of like, but I like gain well more.
And Singletary who it's like what?
Like literally, what's the use of Devin Singletary?
What does Devin Singletary do for this team?
Yeah, truly, truly. He does not seem to even be
their third down back. So I mean, Gain well is going to
move up a lot. The question is like, are you
interested in like Gain well versus Tank Bigsby like I?
Think that's that's the line. I think that's that's the line
where I'm like I want to take both of those guys.
So I'd probably take Tank because I just have more game
well, but that's a good line. Yeah, I think that's where it's
headed. Yeah, I think that's where we're
headed. I think that's about fair.
Like I'll caveat this by saying first like I have absolutely no
push back where game well is going now like Smash pick at
158, even 15140 I think it's great.
I think once he gets into that Bigsby Warren range, I think let
me do another one, him versus Algier.
See, Algiers got like maybe the best contingent upside of like
almost anyone, but I don't feel good about his standalone.
So I think in a lot of seasons Algiers just a total zameer
white like a guy who literally gives you zero weeks of usable
maybe one week where where he just happens to be the guy in at
the goal line or something. But gain well is what we were
talking about earlier with Warren, that nice mix of a
little bit of standalone and really good contingent.
Yeah, yeah. To me it's game well.
I want game well over algebra, yeah.
I think I want game the starter for the equals like I I know
that's not the most likely scenario like that's that's the.
Thing, but it's in play. It's in play now.
You have to admit that it's in play.
Even if everything's overblown with the preseason thing, we
can't take this as like, gospel, that he's the starter.
They're gonna run a committee of some kind anyway, but like, but
there is a chance that he is there early down back to begin
the season. In which case why would you not
take him over? Tyler Algebra.
Pure Contention Pack. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
I made this. And so I was wrong again.
Well, I'm underway to him and that definitely feels like a
mistake. So I'll say that up front that,
like, I definitely think I was wrong there.
That was just some kind of process error.
It is true, though, that man, you look at the box scores where
Miles Sanders has missed time. Man, they have not gone to gain
well as a feature back again. It's a small.
Sample Literally the most recent game we just saw the Super Bowl,
Miles Sanders got banged up and was like rotating in and out and
I think gain well got 4 touches maybe.
Yeah, he did play 51% of snaps in that game, but that's like.
So I was looking through 2022 and 2021, the two years.
We got, we got more targets in that game.
But yeah, like, he's just really maxed out at like a 30 to 40%
like snap guy, like kind of no matter the circumstance.
Now the Super Bowl, you can say that that is a pretty meaningful
exception. But even then he got up to 51%
snaps, like Boston Scotts mixing in for 20% you look at right?
2021 Weeks 8 through 10. Again, this was Gainwell's
rookie year, so a little bit different.
Sanders missed a couple games, and in those games, Gainwell
played 31 percent, 19 percent, 31%, which is basically the same
as he was playing before Sanders injury.
They just used Sanders injury as an excuse to play more Boston
Scott, play a little bit of Jordan Howard.
So that's what I'm worried about is like, maybe Gainwell's role
is like locked in, but it's just locked in at that.
Role he's had the past two years, which is like, right, You
know, 30 isn't very valuable, yeah.
Well, I think there's a quite a good chance, you're right.
But I think that his chance in prior years of being a lead back
was 0. And now I think with Swift sort
of being the same thing of being like a guy, I believe he has not
played over 50% of snaps since week three of his rookie year.
And then you have Penny. Who?
It's the same deal. They're not going to use Penny
on passing downs. Like, no chance they use Penny
on Penny. Cover your ears.
He's Jordan Howard to the Eagles right now.
He really is. Doesn't mean he can't.
I don't need to cover my ears if he's if he's Jordan Howard, they
actually use him. I mean right?
Well, OK. Yeah.
OK, good. Yeah.
What year, Jordan Howard, Yeah. Right.
OK. OK.
Good point. But it's like, it's like getting
well, I mean. Prior years, 0% chance of being
early down goal line, any of that stuff and now it's like, I
don't know, 1015% maybe there's some chance, yeah.
And that's like and that's a really good pick where he was
going and where he is going. It certainly was.
Yeah. I feel, I certainly feel a bit
naked not getting exposure at the once like it it was too easy
and I think I was just like, yeah, he's like you know the
James White of the Eagles offense and like why do I want
that? But I should have just been
like, what if he could, you know, have more in that if that
role is locked? Then it's kind of worth the pick
at that point. So anyway thing I'll say about
being, well that I think, you know, he was actually like he's
shown a little bit in the playoffs, especially like he was
popping in the rushing numbers. We don't have small samples on
him, but like, he ran well in the playoffs last year and so
that's like he isn't just a James White type play.
I think like he's undersized and he kind of came in more as a
receiving back. But that's where I think like
having been in the system for a long time, him getting kind of
more work last year, Penny being the guy who's a little bit more
like Swift seems locked into something.
Penny is the dude we're like more worried about.
And I actually feel better about Gainwell's ability to run
between the tackles than Swift's.
So that's kind of where, I mean they used Swift last year in
that I think believe is the Saints game or the Cowboys game,
can't remember now. But the they used him on four
straight carries within like the 12 yard line And and it's like
why is Kenneth Gainwell getting the run here instead of Miles
Sanders? Like they're not afraid.
I'm not saying like he's like their goal line back, obviously.
But they're not afraid of using Kenneth Gainwell as a rusher in
a way that you might assume. If you just, like, kind of think
about who you know, the archetype of back that he is,
he's probably a pass catcher. Yeah and and yeah that's the
thing with this backfield is like I kind of think the most
likely outcome now is it's just like a full blown.
I'm not sure which three it's gonna be, but I think it's it
could just be a full blown 3, three man committee.
That's what they did down the stretch last year with Boston.
So yeah, but so so but then just take the cheapest guy.
I mean that's that's classic like because then you're picking
up like random spike week, random touchdown goes your way
into basketball. These guys are are gonna be
brutal and I know because I just.
Cook de Andre Swift at a main event famously and then got
sniped on Kenneth Gainwell so we could take fucking Jeff Wilson.
I hate I hate it so much but they're going to be nightmares
and managed. They're going to be extreme
nightmares and managed but like but but for best ball I think
gain well. I honestly gain well up to like
pick like like one 35140 feels fine to me.
Yeah. That seems like it's price
range, like ahead of Algier, behind Big Speed and.
Warren, I think, Okay. Let's let's talk Bigsby.
Speaking of Bigsby, this was like the one preseason snap
heard around the world. He only played one snap with the
starters, with Trevor Lawrence and ETN and the rest of the
stars in Jacksonville. But that one snap, as people are
pointing out on Twitter, was a short yardage.
I believe a third and one where he got stuffed.
So people are, I think this reaction is people are taking
that to mean that Bigsby is the likely goal line back in
Jacksonville, or at least has some chance of that, and that's
driving him up. Davis, what are your thoughts on
this Bigsby usage in the preseason that we got to see?
Yeah, I mean, I don't really care about.
I don't really care about the preseason snap.
Like that. It seems like totally whatever
to me. But Bigsby, I was chasing up
boards anyways. Like, I like I was kind of, he
was kind of my guy like last week before I really started to
make a point to get Kenneth Gain.
Well, like, so there's like some chance that ETN, you know, turns
into Naji Harris and they just used him in between the 20s.
Seems like a 100% chance he's the clear handcuff.
So I want I just want to have a lot of guys like that in My
Portfolio anyways like as many guys as I can get who I think
are Tony Pollard Alexander Madison you know formerly for
the Browns cream on just like no doubt about it starter gets
injured. I'm getting that guy's
projecting for 16 1/2 points or whatever the next week.
I want a lot of those guys anyways.
I think Bigsby is clearly that now there is some chance that.
Bigsby is going to pull off these, you know these high value
touches right. So inside the 10 third downs,
cuz that the thing I've I've railed against this forever.
I think ETN is awesome. I think he's so good.
I think he's so dynamic like I don't have.
I actually don't like the corresponding movement of Bigsby
going up. I'm not drafting ETN less.
But we always want to typecast ETN as a pass catcher, cuz he
did it when he was with Trevor Lawrence in college a little
bit. And he well, because an Urban
Meyer got sniped on Cadair's Tony and decided he would just
turn ETN and Cadair's Tony. But Urban Meyer's an idiot, we
know that. But he's proven that many times
over now, yeah? Like I think bigs, Bigsby might
just play, I don't know 70% of the third downs.
Like they might use him as like kind of like kind of how they
were using Joe Michael Hasty and Ernest Johnson last year.
So I'm chasing Bigsby up. I it doesn't I don't really care
about the preseason stuff. Like, I mean, it's nice you
would rather. Yeah, him have gotten that then
D Ernest Johnson or Michael Hasty or whatever.
But yeah, I just think Bigsby is another guy Steam worth chasing
cuz something that we're seeing happen right now.
Also, and I meant to bring this up earlier in the show, I
thought we for some reason it was in my calendar is 1130
instead of 11. My time doesn't matter.
I think we are going to see much stronger but actually purposeful
driven changes in ADP. Like the first six months of us
doing this show, it's basically people reacting to a tweet, like
basically basically all these nerds reading a tweet.
Now we have some non nerds drafting with us.
I don't know if you guys have been noticing this, but there's
been less badges in the room, names you don't recognize and so
there's more drafts. So the information there's, the
information is changing quicker, the ADP is changing quicker
because the volume of drafts is higher.
The so like just the velocity of information is greater and the
information that people are reacting to is more meaningful.
So these are changes in ADP that I think you need to be having a
stance on because they're they're likely time to reach,
time to reach a little bit. If there's a guy that you know
is going to move up, just it is time, it's time to go.
This guy is mispriced now, right?
Like Kenneth Gainwell is someone that like I said I was
overweight on but not to the level where I would like to be
given. I'm like OK this the bet looks
bit stronger than 160 now. How much stronger?
Well, I'd like to get him at 1:50 if I could but if I need to
get him in the one 40s I'll I'm down to do that too.
I think he's a very strong bet in the one 40s as well and I
don't think he's going to settle in the one 40s.
I think he's going to move up ahead of that eventually as
well. So I'm that's a guy I could be
wrong about that but that's the bet I'm willing to make.
So I'm going to go ahead and reach.
I don't think 12th round Kenneth Gainwell is going to look bad in
a month. I think I'm going to be totally
fine with that. So yeah not everyone and don't
you know. Yeah I think in general we're
we're kind of like I would say we are sort of in on most of the
preseason takes it sounds like, but also try not to lose our
heads. But you know, this is a spot
where where you know the Adp's gonna be shifting a lot, so you
might as well try to strategically get ahead of of
some of those spots. Yeah.
That before we move on from Bigsby.
Art, what are your thoughts on on ETN.
It sounds like I think we're all probably fine with with Bigsby
where he goes or I I actually like him quite a bit But like
David said I'm not taking this like I think I do think one of
the inefficiencies in the fantasy community still is so
many times like the running back discussion becomes like the team
RB 2 versus the team RB one where in many situations and.
This last couple years and this guy's awesome.
Yeah, like I if it's a. Running back in a good backfield
where I like both the prices like I did this last year with
Seattle, I'm doing it this year with Jacksonville.
It's just like, man, I I want shares of like the running back
on the potential traveler Trevor Lawrence, like Ascension team.
And I think both ETN and Bigsby have cases for being really high
upside plays. So I still like ETN.
I do like Bigsby. Are you, are you nervous about
ETN at his price in sort of the 40s with the, you know,
potential Bigsby stealing? Goal line usage narrative that's
going around now. I'm not I'm trying I'm what I'm
what I'm nervous about is trying to trying to get my exposure
actually above market on on ETN because I I'm sort of nervous
about being underweight and maybe this will help me get back
to to being overweight on ETN. But right now I think about like
6% ETN $100. Yeah, I'm at 6% ET and $100,
which I would prefer to be a little bit above the field on
him, even with this Bigsby stuff, because he's a fourth
round pick where we're getting an explosive rusher, a guy who
is a capable pass catcher. Although he's not never going to
be like amazing there, I don't think.
And he was very consistent as a rusher as well last year.
Maybe he loses some short yardage stuff, but like, I don't
know. I mean, I don't think Tank
Bigsby as a rookie is going to come in and be like a dedicated
short every short yardage. Yeah, I don't understand really.
What coaches do like how we don't really Can anyone give me
an example of a rookie coming in and then getting like literally
all of the most important touches?
Like, it's it's it's just a sort of backwards on how NFL coaches
think. No, it doesn't mean.
Conversely, it doesn't mean that that he's not going to get any
of them and that and everyone he's going to get some.
But I mean, literally this just happened.
Like how many running backs like don't lose high value touches
like Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey Like there were.
There were. I know this because I remember
sweating out a first touchdown bet.
There were there was a games last year where Sony, Michelle
was getting goal line touches over Austin Eckler.
Like it. Just teams just do that.
They. Just do.
Yeah, I I just pulled up my DraftKings, but I'm I'm eleven
percent there which I feel much better about and it's easier to
go ahead and take the fourth round running back on DraftKings
because you can you know you're going to get a much better
eighth round wide receiver if you want to go that route or
even ninth round receiver might be able to do Bateman and the
9th there. So to me it's like the thing
that's made me nervous about ETN is that why am I underweight on
underdog is because of structural stuff.
It's because the fourth round I almost always need a wide
receiver. Like, I've already made my like
a detour with Reese Hall. You know, a lot in the third
round. So now I'm like, do I want to go
haul ETN or do I want to go haul wide receiver?
I may already have another running back with Hall.
So then it's like, do I want to do a hyperfragile?
It's easier for me just to take a wide receiver.
So I I take a wide receiver most of the time.
But ETN, he pops a lot in my rushing.
Like the the stuff I'm looking for for how talented these guys
are. ETN looks very talented as a
rusher. So and Gretch was pushing back
the other day on ETN and I like, didn't really have a good
counter, which is another thing. I'm like, I don't.
This just feels like a spot. There's a certain spots like
I've found myself in over the years where like I just kind of
knew I was wrong, but then I never like, corrected it.
And this feels like one of the spots to me where like ET n's
not someone I've been bullish on as far as far as taking him
relative to his ADP. But I can't really explain why,
other than like I kind of need a receiver here, but that's not a
good enough reason to, like, be underweight, a guy who's very
talented. It is kind of frustrating, like
looking at my exposures where I'm like, I don't have enough of
this guy and it's just because I, like positionally need
something else in that pocket a lot.
Like I'm ending up with a, like, I noticed this like, I really
like Kyle Pitts, but I'm making like this huge leverage bet on
Kyle Pitts compared to the field.
Just because I hate everyone who goes around him.
And I need a tight end there a lot of the times.
And I just know it's going to be like week four and Kyle Pitts is
going to have like. Parker Hesse is going to score
his third touchdown of the year. Cow pits is going to be like on
the sideline, like arguing with his coach.
And I'm seeing like what this is exactly the time.
You check, you check the like, ETR projections and Cole
Turner's projected for both friends and you're like, what's
going on guys? Yeah, these spots I I that gut
feeling is like pops up sometimes.
And it's so because it tends to pop up in a spot like that where
it's like, yeah, but what do I do different?
What am I supposed to do like and to me to like get on ETM
especially in underdog that's I'm like literally like very
encouraged by the fact that I am overweight on DraftKings cuz I'm
like OK like that. It cuz that is kind of what I
should do at least is like go to DraftKings, make sure I have
enough there where structurally it's so much easier to get them.
But even on underdog like I I can do, I can you know I can
take more Ridley. I can take more Metcalf and and
get some ETM that way maybe and and attacked that third round
wide receiver which I'm generally fading but maybe
that's a reason to like not fade that part of the draft so
aggressively. But I just think I actually
think that fading ETN right now is a little bit of a leak that I
have because yes Bigsby could be like a little bit of a problem.
But there is this thing where like a what third round rookie
is the only possible competition that he has like ETN could get.
ETN could turn a nice season with with only a a a rookie like
Bigsby who was a fine prospect not a not an amazing prospect
not someone we would expect to like take the job from ETN given
what he's shown in the NFL and is a prospect.
So I think, yeah, it's like a sneaky it's he's still like a a
sneaky buy, I think. Yeah, the last thing I'll say in
on ETN and then we can talk to some followers here is I think
that sometimes as fantasy drafters, we have my God.
We haven't got the followers, yeah.
We go quick through the fallers. But Davis, you showed up an
hour. Yeah, 30 minutes late.
Just wait until the stacking charts, David.
Yeah, those are, those have been.
Burnt. My God, we are so long winded.
Last thing I. There are fantasy football shows
that have gotten through every relevant preseason.
Take away in like 37 minutes, like 100%.
They're out there. Yeah, they definitely are.
Yeah. ADP Jason is we're just
basically doing, you know, reading Nathan Janke's snaps
article, but making it two hours long instead of a 10 minute
read. That's, that's that's a summary
of this show, basically. Oh my.
God. All right.
I'll skip my ETN take. Let's move on the followers No
no, I wanna hear no. No, please.
That would literally be off brand you.
We gotta get the ETN people know.
They it's August 14th. They know what they're signing
up for at this point. Yeah, that's true.
I just think we get too obsessed with this idea of like the
workhorse running back, like the Christian McCaffrey 2020 season,
and like any running back that doesn't project to be that.
We get so nervous about when in reality there's just like so few
of those. Better take Amari Cooper
instead. He can't.
He can't be. He can't be. 2020 Christian
McCaffrey. Better take Amari Cooper.
Yeah, that's what I'm saying. It's like it's not like ETN if
this, if he was a 12 turn pick, I would understand the
nitpicking. But like he's going next.
You know, wide receivers and offenses that might be horrible.
Like I like Terry Mclaurin. I like Drake London, Like I like
some of these guys. But ETN doesn't need to be a
workhorse back. He's going next to Packers Chase
Claypool, I mean. I heard someone say it might
have been, it might have been Crane who said why couldn't why
couldn't Christian Watson be Chase Claypool?
And it's been. I didn't say that, but it is.
Someone, someone on a podcast I was listening to said that and
it has been haunting me because it is so close, how those
comparisons could be like it's it's frightening.
But like, so there are a couple running backs like Barkley I
think is kind of like. That McCaffrey 2020 where you
can reasonably project that there are some of those guys
that exist this year. But Matt, so many good running
back seasons. The past couple years have been
with, you know, running backs that have running back twos on
their own team that have sizable roles.
Like Nick Chubbs. Been a RB one for what, three
years in a row with Cream Hunt stealing goal line work,
stealing targets like Austin Eckler's.
Played like a 40% snap share role for a couple years and
been, you know, RB one like even McCaffrey.
Daddy Eli Mitchell mixing in Aaron Jones has been awesome
with like AJ Dillon taking a huge share of you know in
between the 20s and goal lines. Starting to lose me a little bit
here cuz I mean Aaron Jones was was a second round pick last
year and it's not someone you wanted to have taken.
I think it's price. It's price.
It's price like you're. Yeah exactly.
It's a fourth round pick. Like I write the the legendary
running back article like I'm this is my thing like that.
We want the guys with the Christian McCaffrey upside.
But traditionally, I think I'm gonna go to the third round this
year, cuz there's just like not enough because the article is
not interesting if I only do 2 rounds I think, But there's a
reason I would never take it into the fourth round because
you don't need legendary upside from a fourth round pick.
No, especially in best ball like an ETN is going to be heavily
involved. You know he's not going to get
displaced by Tank Bigsby. I feel pretty confident about
that. Like you're going to get usable
production from a talented back in a good offense.
And honestly, like what if he does have most of the short
yardage stuff, Like then all of a sudden he can crush?
Like, I don't think he necessarily profiles his dude
with, probably because of the reception stuff.
Like I the legendary upside on him is a concern.
And so you could say, OK, he should be like more of a third
round pick, but he's a fourth round pick.
Yeah, yeah. And and we've talked about it
before, but you know he's going off the board at running back
fourteen, I think something like that traditionally that costs
you. The late 2nd, early third round
pick. You know, maybe not last year in
2022, but 2020-2021, RB 14 costs you like a late second round
pick and I think that's kind of the profile.
Yeah. So maybe, yeah, we go back to
2020. I'm probably not drafting, you
know, Travis Etn over Devantha Smith at pick 24 or whatever,
right? But.
That's not where we are. Like, we're choosing him over
Sam Howell's wide receiver one over Jordan loves wide receiver
one. It's so different at that price.
So anyways, we're getting the followers an hour and a half in
Dulcic. I think this one is maybe like.
One of the biggest preseason usage things that jumped out to
me. So curious your guy's take on
it. Bill Such was not playing in
three wide receiver sets. He was behind Troutman on the
depth chart that that is pretty concerning.
Take if I want to take a part time 47% route participation
tight end, I'll at least just take Dalton Kincaid because I it
would it's like. Missing out on the Dalton
Kincaid explosion in the three-week Sprint while Liam is
just like counting like Scrooge Mcducking into his money.
Like I can't bear it, so I literally would just rather take
Kincaid. Yeah, I can't argue that.
I can't argue that's that. Let me see I.
Think if you want this, you probably don't want Russell
Wilson's. I just, I just already done this
with the Denver tight end and like there was the, you know,
there was the dead cat bounce on Alberto, like he went down to
tight end 18 and then the team was like, no, no, no, he's the
starter, it's fine. And he went back up and I like
drafted him on the way back up and like I'm not doing that.
I'm like, not. It's not happening to me.
Yeah, I think you are. You're looking at Russell
Wilson's Dalton Kincaid. I have him like 10 spots below
Kincaid now and I and I was I'm below market on Kincaid.
So I I have a lot of Greg Dulcich, I've been in on
Dulcich. The thing that happened with me
is that I wrote these tight end articles.
I wrote one on Mark Andrews last week and one just came out this
morning on someone made fun of us before the show saying I
would reference an article that I wrote.
So Congrats, Congrats on nailing that.
But yeah, I just, I was researching this article and was
starting to get nervous about Greg Dulcich because he had 80%
route participation last year and there's a lot of reasons to
kind of worry that maybe he wasn't going to see that much
playing time. And now with after the
preseason, I think we should assume he's not going to see an
80% route rate. I mean that's that's a very good
route rate for a tight end. He could be significantly below
that. The path that I do see for him
is that maybe he could be like Jared Cook who was a part time
player. Cook was at 66% route
participation in a in a strong year with the Saints.
I think 2020 was the was the good year he had with the
Saints. No 202166 route, percent route
participation. He was at only 19% on play
action which is again indicator that he was not like a
traditional run blocking tight end.
He's really like truly just a big receiver, this Joker type
role. Peyton's called it, so maybe
Dolsich is like there Jared Cook.
And if he breaks out, I think he could pay off ADP that way.
But like, why would I bet on a guy?
To need to break out just to pay off ADP.
Scott Barrett makes this point a lot and I think it's actually
it's it's under under disgust. But like tight end seven, who
gives a shit if Greg Dolsich finishes as the tight end seven?
I think this the idea of him splitting all this time and
stuff with Troutman. Is like he well he's just
removed from being a top three tight end like he just will not
generate enough snaps and volume.
So what, what is the point? I mean I and obviously in Best
Ball it's a little bit different because there's value and just
like accumulating points. Actually Pat, you just did, I
actually this morning just listened to your.
Tight end premium podcast episode and it it got me, I mean
one it actually did get me more even more bullish on cow pits
which is an issue. But it made me, it made me, it
made me be like there literally is just no point in drafting
Evan Ingram, David and Joe Ku, Greg Dolsitch on and you you you
had a different no, I still like Friarmuth because I think that
he's going to play more than early indications are like he's
one of those bullets flying guys.
But yeah, that range of tight end it's it is just it is such a
classic human response of being like I need a little bit of
safety at tight end. I want to feel warm and cozy.
I want the tight end 9 but like the tight end 9 just does shit
for you. And I think that like Dolce's
range of outcomes if this is really the playing time they've
planned for him, are so narrow. He he like at best he can be
like the tight end 6 or like the tight end 22, you know?
Yeah, and there's just The thing is.
That that's the thing for me is that I think this doesn't drop
him into like undraftable range by no he means for me.
But it it drops him just into this huge tier of tight ends
where like like pick and choose whoever you want.
Like I, you know, I actually feel better about like Luke
Musgrave and Jake Ferguson's roles than I do Musgrave at this
than I do to this point like and they go 60 picks later where
wide receivers and running backs, especially running backs
like. There's no running backs left at
that point. Whereas if you're taking Dolcet,
you have to take him over like a Jalen Warren, you have to take
him over like a Tank Bigsby man, like that opportunity cost in
the two by two. You're just getting killed on
that. I think if you're taking Dolce,
I pick 130. So for me, it's just like I'll
unless you drop significantly. Even Sam La Porta.
Right? La Porta played all the snaps.
Yeah, Line Porters. I'm still like, why would I take
Porta? Yeah and ahead of a conquer.
But I'm open to changing that. Like those guys aren't because
it's. I think he's now kind of in that
range. And La Porta.
La Porta could have a higher route rate for sure like there.
I would be maybe even surprised if he didn't.
It's it. It's that like Dulcich showed
decently well as a rookie. Showed the ability to earn
playing time right away is a deep threat.
Which I think is is helpful, right.
Like if if anyone's going to get there on.
That's why I think the Jared Cook thing is pretty apt because
like he does sort of profiles A seam stretcher and so he can
kind of get there a little bit on efficiency, generate some
spike weeks even if he isn't a full time guy.
But yeah, I mean he's probably, yeah, he's part time tight end
and if you want to take Laporta over him, like I wouldn't really
have an issue with that. Yeah, let's talk Damian Harris.
This is more injury related than playing Tom.
We actually didn't see Damian Harris because he injured his
knee. Yeah, I guess not a whole lot to
discuss here. You guys have jumped the shark
on Damian Harris. Yeah, Gretch is already
capitulated in chat. They that he shouldn't have said
we jumped the shark on Damian Harris like 2 days later.
No, I actually think you guys did jump the shark on him like
he he is a very good handcuff to James Cook.
It doesn't mean that this drop in ADP isn't worth it.
Yeah, I don't know if he is. I don't think he is.
OK, here's the thing. The day, the day I let fear win
on Latavius Murray is the day I just retire from doing this.
Because, like, literally, if I'm going to sit here and be scared
of of the oldest running back in the NFL, I should just do
something else. I should.
I don't know.
I should go, but think about think about how many times you
have to be right for for Harris to right.
Harris has to have something left which seems not like a like
a surefire slam dunk bet. Given that we're hearing about
Latavius Murray, right? He should he should have dusted
Latavius Murray right away. So there's like the talent
question of like what? How much he has left in the
tank. Then there's he's probably a
contingent play. He's a handcuffed play.
So this cook get hurt early in the season, in which case
Latavius Murray is probably still kicking around, right?
So you kind of need it's like a contingent play that's probably
limited to the second-half of the season when Latavius Murray
has completely faded with his like 35 year old legs or
whatever. So it's like it's a very seems
like a very specific thing needs to happen for Harris to to bury
me. I mean, I don't think he's like
a Bear like this drop in a DP is fine.
He seems like a perfectly objective, like fine pick to me.
Where he goes, I don't think he's a league winner.
You know, you're his path. His path to beating you is that
James Cook is too small and that with Davies.
Murray is 33 and and he scores 11 rushing touchdowns.
That's it. So like, Harris's ADP is 126.
Tyler Algiers ADP is 141. Why would I take him over Tyler
Algier? Because there is zero chance
that Bijan isn't force fed. There is some chance that they
decide James Cook isn't up to it like low, but some chance OK.
That's, that's fair. But I still think they shouldn't
be like back-to-back. That's the thing.
Like man ahead of He's ahead of Bigsby, ahead of Warren.
That's I guess it's kind of a micro take like I'm not saying
you know put Damien Harris in the same range as Taiji Spears.
I'm just saying like where he goes I think is like pretty
clearly like 15 spots ish overvalued and I'm just.
I don't know. Never clicking, Jalen Warren.
This is another reason, by the way, why it's so easy for me to
just take gain. Well, on every draft cuz like
I've got 0% Kendra Miller, I've got like 4% Harris drum forward.
I don't want to take it all anymore.
So it's like it's like there's like a there's like 30 spots in
ADP where there's one running back I want to take and it's
gained well. So I'll just take him, cuz I
don't care, right. Yeah, that I I completely agree
with that. With gain.
Well, it's like you get to the point.
The other thing is that I still kind of want to be done at
running back up like earlier, you know, like if I can, if it
makes sense, like I want to. Take my 3rd, 4th and 5th running
back between pick 95 and pick 140 and then just be be clean my
hands done. That's how I love to do that
right and gain well right now 12th round, 13th round, you just
take gain well and you're at your RB 5 and you're done at
running back. I I really like that.
So yeah, I don't, I don't really want to be messing with Harris
right now. My thing is not that like Harris
is going to get like passed by Latavius Marie necessarily, but
like it could just be ugly. It could just be hanging around.
Yeah. Like, he just doesn't really
have that much value. Like, it's like a contingent
version of getting to the Eagles backfield, you know what I mean?
Like, Cook goes down and now we have the Eagles backfield where
it's like kind of a muddled mess and we're hoping to be at Spike
week, so that could be wrong. I mean, maybe I'm underrating
Harris, but I mean, that's another Latavius Murray.
They're talking about him in short yardage too, so that's
another concern. It's also like Latavius, like
the and I'd have to look into this to make sure I'm not just
misleading people. But Davian Harris has never been
trusted, really, in pass blocking or pass catching with
the Patriots and Latavius Murray throughout his career.
He's never been like an elite pass catcher, but he's filled in
for that role for Alvin Camara. Nine years past, you know he
went back when he was at the Raiders a long time ago.
He did get some decent pass game usage.
So that's where I'm thinking, like if Cook goes down, doesn't,
isn't Latavius Murray more likely to be the pass catching
back than Damien Harris? Like, Harris has been efficient
as a receiver, which is one of the things Gretch was pointing,
pushing back on that, you know, he actually has OK, held up
totally fine. Like when given the opportunity,
he's been totally fine in yards per hour running stuff.
Like it might have just been the Patriots, not, you know, they
they kind of segment out those roles.
We know that. Yeah, that's true.
He's never been below 1.0 yards per hour in his entire career,
1.10 career yards per hour. And so it's not like he's been
amazing or anything, but he's been capable as a receiver every
single year. Anytime he's been given an
opportunity, he just hasn't really been given many
opportunities. It would be tough to say.
I mean, I think he could. It'd be really up to the bills.
And you know, I don't know what they would decide to do there.
Yeah, I guess that's yeah, that's still kind of a toss up.
But yeah, I mean, he's a guy who's topped out, I guess 17
receptions last year in 11 games.
That's not terrible from Harris, But then you know, prior years
and that it was 18 catches and 15 games in 20215 catches in
2020. Like he's just barely, barely
been used there. But like you said, it could be
more of a Patriots thing than a Harris thing.
The last thing I want to get to. Here for the Followers is Jerome
Ford. He's down 8 spots.
Again, just an injury thing for me.
I have been buying the dip on this because it seems like like
he's likely fine for Week 1, or at least like it's not a
longterm issue for him and for me.
This is, you know, Jerome Ford. I wasn't looking for early
season points anyways, so I'm kind of like, you know, the
preseason usage signaled he was the clear running back to there.
I guess maybe there's more rest that bring in a veteran, maybe.
But he still feels like to me, like there's a point where
basically all the running backs to me are like close to
undraftable. He's still before that, like I'm
still taking stabs and Jerome Ford.
He's to that point. The thing I stopped drafting
him, but I stopped drafting him because he was my most drafted
player when this hamstring injury happened.
So I felt sick to my stomach because I thought I was just
eating zeros already. The The thing is is that this
is. This is like the the New York
Giants wide receiver thing that we talk about of like they're
paying Jerome for nothing. He has no demonstrable success
in in the NFL to their team like it it he was.
So he's just de facto the running back to so like if de
metric Felton. You know really crushes in camp
for the next three weeks or John Kelly, like is is you know the
coaching Staffs, new favorite guy or just like whatever.
He's he is not insulated or protected by a contract by prior
service or anything. And the worst thing that can
happen to a guy whose role is de facto is an injury where you're
just not available. You know, So it it it just feels
bad. Like, not that I think it's bad
to be taking him where he goes, but I just personally.
I needed to smooth it out because I couldn't have.
That's fair. This giant, you know, I couldn't
have 35% of this guy who like, I don't know, maybe would not
touch the ball until week five or something.
Yeah. Pat, what are your thoughts on
Ford? David told me a little bit that
it is true that it was somewhat of a tenuous script on learning
back to role. So I do see the argument of
being a little bit more worried than I am.
What are your thoughts? Well, it wasn't tenuous from
what they had indicated, right? Like they back in the combine in
Matthew Berry's article, he had, you know, they're really high on
drum Ford, like expect him to be locked in as the RB2 and that
held true like up until the hamstring injury.
I mean, no, no draft guys coming in, no free agents.
They haven't been tied to any of the free agent running backs.
So they seem to be like pretty into him, but.
I also think, yeah, teams sometimes like these injuries,
like it changes things. It really does.
Like, yeah, guys can be having some great camp, be earning all
this praise and then they miss 2 weeks and it's like, sorry bud.
Yeah, they. I mean, it does.
It's weird like how much. It's almost like, I mean, if you
wanted to play, I don't know why you got injured, Like it's
almost like something like that, which is obviously stupid.
But there, you know, there's like a football coach mentality
for sure. Yeah, so.
I'm a little bit nervous about him too.
I just don't know, like, do I want to take him over like any
of these other running backs, like or?
Sorry, do I want to take any of these other running backs over
him that I have right behind him?
Not really like debit Singletary.
Yeah. Like what I really like Jeff
Wilson. I really like Chuba Hubbard is
Chuba Hubbard is the guy I take now.
Instead, I'm like, I'm just like all in on a on Chuba Hubbard.
It's like sort of unintentionally.
The reporting on that one is interesting because it's been,
it's been mixed. Like I saw, I believe it was
Cody Carpentier say that like when he watched practice, it was
just Chuba and Sanders with the ones.
But then other reporting has been like, you know,
Blackshear's looking really good and Chuba hasn't really
separated and even like Visca's getting some running back worse.
So, but now I mean we we did sort of partially get the answer
to that because Bryce Young played 11 snaps and Chuba played
11 snaps with him. Like I I mean, I missed that
nugget. That sort of that sort of tells
me that, I mean, yeah, I saw the same tweets of being like they
were just alternating first team drills.
True. I I'm just not.
I'm not afraid of Rahim Blackshear like I'm.
The other thing I would say about, yeah, you're right on
that, that pieces and usage was really I I missed that nugget,
but that that was bullish or Hubbard 11 out of 11 snaps with
Bryce Young is, is pretty good. Sorry, sorry.
Yeah. That is, that is.
That that. I'm glad you emphasize that
because that's a more that's a better point than what I'm about
to make. But the the Frank Reich stuff,
like he's just struck me as like he doesn't really want to talk
about stuff. Like Raheem Blackshear was like
one of the guys he singled out originally.
But like, he didn't really single out players and I felt
like kind of like pulling, like give us something Frank, you
know, and like the Leviscus stuff, right?
I went back, obviously, and watched what he said about
Lavisco and they're like, we like, we might have some
packages for him and stuff. It was the most like, yeah, I
don't know, man, like it's fucking July.
Like we're figuring stuff. Out.
Yeah, yeah. Lavisco's on the roster.
Yeah, he's on the like, we could use him like that, I guess
maybe. But like, shut up.
Like he just seemed like so annoyed.
Michael Crane is literally the Michael Jordan of watching NFL
press conferences this guy is so good at.
Getting the right context. You know, like interpreting the
inflection like this. No one's better.
No one's better than this guy at an NFL press conference.
Interpretation. Right.
Well, yeah, I'm bullish because I look.
I wanted to. I went there to go be bullish on
VISCA. I did and I didn't come away.
There's a reason I wasn't tweeting about VISCA afterwards.
And I was like, I don't think this guy has any issues and you
think I gotta, I gotta delete my bit, my pro Bisca tweet.
At least I hatched it with saying like this might be my
worst. Take it offseason.
So no, no, it was. I can always say it was a joke
if it turns. Out what?
No, because because until the Visco retires from Pro Football,
I will be holding. That he could have been Debo
Samuel if he was like willing to take his diet seriously and got
like 10% faster. Oh, I mean, I I still think
that. I just don't know that they're
gonna use him enough. I mean, they just seem he's
like, yeah, I guess like we're gonna have like a sub package
set up for our wide receiver 6. Why?
But why do you care about that?
Yeah, Terrace Marshalls direct backup is just gonna get 4
carries this. Yeah, You asked about it a lot.
I guess we'll probably do it some.
All right. One I when we're talking about
Jerome Ford, Pat, I didn't wanna throw out one name Zamir White
versus Jerome Ford. What what's your decision there
cuz Zamir White has been like very clearly I think the the RV2
obviously I do expect Jacobs to be back, but he's one where I
would I think launch him ahead of Ford in in my rankings.
What are your thoughts on that? I I think my thoughts are that
I'm anchored to the old Zamir White ADP because I don't really
have a case against it. Like, not only does Zamir White
also look like the number 2, just like Ford did, I don't
really have any reason to think Ford's better than White.
In fact, White is. He's the size, size, speed,
combo guy. Then you also have the
uncertainty with Josh Jacobs. Like there's a nonzero percent
chance that Jacobs doesn't play for the Raiders this year,
probably pretty close to 0, but it's nonzero.
So I mean that's some serious upside that you're getting baked
in as a little icing on the cake there.
So I don't know, I don't really, I don't want to do it, but I
think I am going to put him ahead of drum forward in my
ranks. Yeah, he's he's one.
I've been reaching on Zamir White because it gets to a point
where I'm like man, and again, not to do Devin Singletary to
slander him again but I'm like Devin Singletary or Zamir White.
It's like, why is Singletary going 30 picks higher like he's
it makes it actually makes no sense.
Singletary should be falling. A lot like he's not.
He's not even the third down back for the Texans.
Yeah, yeah, I was. I was taking him like I I don't
wanna. I think taking him was fine.
When we thought he was. Yeah, 12% Singletary on
underdog. OK, like, I'm not making fun of
you took him. I clearly burned some money with
this, but like, he's not even the third down back.
What is he? Yeah, yeah, it doesn't make a
ton of, it doesn't make a ton of sense.
And it's also, we're talking to Texans, right?
I mean, I guess you can say the Raiders aren't too exciting
either, but I think Singletary is 1 again.
Yeah, it's like, all right, great, great.
I was taking him. That's one I'm gonna slow down
on. That's the thing, right?
And maybe we can wrap up here with sort of a macro take.
But man, the people who are saying like, don't react to the
preseason, like don't let your previous exposures, everyone
overreacted about Josh Jacobs playing in the Hall of Fame.
You've got one like. There are.
You can admit you make mistakes too.
Yeah, like, oh, you were going to draft high end 11 Albert
Okui, Boonem Like when? When the coaching?
Staff was literally saying like, we hate this guy.
Like this is our least favorite person on the planet.
Like there there are so many instances of really good when
they're calling him Albert O. It's a red flag.
It's a. Red flag.
I mean there there, there are millions.
Not millions. There are hundreds of instances
of good preseason information that we have gotten over the
years. So to say don't react like there
is a right way and a wrong way. And I think the the most correct
way is to understand that like teams can be doing weird stuff
like with the Eagles running backs.
Like, I think it's roughly positive for game.
Well, but it doesn't mean Penny, Swift or any of these other guys
are dead. It does not because because
Nathan Yankee. Mentioned this in his.
Article Last year in the preseason, Eagles did the same
thing. Where they used gain well is the
early down back and Sanders is the third.
Just like see what they could. Just see if they could do it
just to throw them and some live action like it.
It doesn't ever mean one thing and it doesn't mean that that's
how they would call things in week one.
But they're trying stuff out and it's important to notice, like
what guys are being asked to do and why they might be asked to
do it. Yeah, and I I dropped a penny in
my ranks, but you know. I think, I think that's
defensible, but I still have him pretty high, like 5-5 spots
behind EDP now. So I said I didn't freak out or
anything, I don't think, but I'm going to be dropping Singletary
more and it's like, OK, what was what did we think about these
players coming in Like Singletary to me is like, well,
I don't think Singletary is very good, but.
You know, maybe he has a chance to work into a committee with
with Pierce. Like we don't know that much
about Pierce and he's at least clearly the contingent play.
And then we get information that like, yeah, maybe he's like
maybe he's the contingent play still, but probably only on
early downs. And also there's like a 0%
chance that he would be working into any kind of committee
because he's probably not even playing on 3rd downs.
I'm. And if my initial take away was
like, this guy's not good, but at least I got a role and then
the role comes in question like. We should be reacting pretty
strongly to that, I think. Whereas with Penny, I think
Penny is an awesome rusher. And so now it's just like I'm
trying to dial in the best price to get on that awesome rusher
relative to his opportunity. And if I end up overweight on
him, you know, even though he ends up being a backup, like, so
be it. Because I'm betting on talent
and you know, so with Penny like.
My take on that is that I want to move game well up and be more
aggressive about getting game well.
But I only want to move Penny down a little because I still
want to be getting some Penny just because.
I mean, dude, if they lean on him behind this offensive line,
like he could be a smash, he could go nuts.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I agree. With all that and like.
Again, I think it's OK to admit you made mistakes early in the
offseason. I think some people will be
like, oh, you're, you know, wishy washy.
You were high in him now then, and you're saying, I've drafted
now like I've already. I've already like I've already
messed up so many things. You know, I mean, imagine if you
were drafting Trey Lance this whole time and then you watched
him the other night and you were like.
You know what? He actually is not going to win
this job. I sort of feel like I might have
messed up this Purdy thing and like, Sam Darnold might just be
the starter. Oh boy.
For the 49ers, yeah. Here's what I'll say about about
that, right? Like, you know, you might not.
Want to admit it, But you, you listener, have also made a ton
of mistakes. You know, as if, I, as if, Sam,
as if Davis. Like we've all made a ton of
mistakes already. If you've been drafting, if
you've been drafting, you've made mistakes.
That's just the way it goes. If you're not going to admit it
and double down, you're just going to.
You're just going to make more mistakes, like.
And the other thing is, look, when you're drafting early in
the offseason, you have some advantages.
You're going to get better prices on players, then will be
available later. You're also going to have to eat
some some losses, but now we're starting to move into a period
where we. Get new advantages.
We get information over those people who drafted before.
Take advantage of it, right? Make them pay for not having
that information, and use the information to your advantage to
build teams that they didn't have access to or wouldn't have
known to build early in the offseason you don't like.
Leverage yourself against yourself, right, Like those old
team. My old teams suck.
I'm gonna build better versions of those teams now like you
don't. I don't think you even need to
like this version of yourself. Can be like, at odds with your
June version of yourself, in fact.
In fact, like, how often do you get to hedge yourself out of a
loss? Like before it even.
Happens like you can do it exactly.
You got time. Like Damian Harris is one
example. For me, I was David Harris was
like I think my most drafted player in pre draft and then he
landed up with the Bills and I was even more excited.
I was taking him a ton in May and June and then we get reports
that, you know he's not the locked in RV2.
Regardless of what you think of that, like I'm at like I'm not
so biased on Harris that I'm not updating my priors like I'm you
know, then he gets injured. Like the reports are saying.
It's a competition. Like I could just bury in my
head in the sand and double down on Harris and maybe that is
going to be the right thing to do.
We don't know. Jump the shark.
Yeah, exactly. You could jump the shark but the
point being is like I don't get the ignore camp news narrative
that that people say it's like you do have to know what also
like what activity are you doing.
You know, it's like it's. Kind of fun.
Like, yeah, yeah. You know what you're gonna
draft? You're gonna draft 400 best and
I don't know, maybe there are. Like, I know there are like some
poker guys who take best ball really seriously, who draft like
500 teams And like maybe they're just like all this is for me is
a chance to try and win $3,000,000.
And I use underdogs rankings, and that captures all of it for
me or whatever. But if you're 2 hours into ADP
chasing, my guess is that's probably not you.
You're probably not just micro grinding these .3% edges.
So let's have some fun. Yeah, you made it halfway
through ADP chasing. You're clearly committed.
All right, so now going to the Giants wide receiver 6 battle
Crowder. You see Crowder's playing time
in the you guys, you guys see that Isaiah Hodgins were playing
while? Campbell and Slayton got the day
off. That's maybe a little nervous
cut risk. I did have the cut risk.
Take three months ago. So, And arguably, Darius Slayton
should be going ahead of Isaiah Hodgins.
And I don't care. I know it's wild.
It's kind of wild. Darius Layton is the most wild.
Things I think like every single sharp or like everybody on
Twitter has made a thread or like a tweet about Darius Slaton
in the markets. So I'm just like whatever.
Just like absolutely don't care. Whatever.
Don't care. And and like I'm not gonna reach
for him by like 40 pics or. I'll just take him.
But I, you know, I have a lot of Slaton, thankfully, because I
also have a lot of Hudgens. Yeah.
OK, let let it. Let's wrap up here.
We haven't done our best value takes in quite a while, so let's
let's go back to that. We are gonna do this real
stinkers in there, like there's gotta be some.
Guys who? I said we're gonna.
Rise, who were just like completely undrafted at this
point. Undertaker gift for my Kyron
Williams take from him like two months ago, Kyron.
Williams getting rested with the starters.
And how about, oh OK, we're two. Hours into the show, I can
mention this. Guess who else got rested with
the starters? 22 out got rested out well, 22
out well got puka. Nakua looked good, but guess
what? Trump.
Payton. Hates to play.
Starters in the preseason and Nakua and and Gretch's boy
DeMarcus Robinson also played. So our boy.
All right. Anybody have a take?
As I scroll through a DP, We'll go.
First come, first serve here. If anyone let me let me take a
look here, I'll do. I'll do well.
I'm just going to go. Michael Wilson I I I think he
might you can fun of me originally for for talking to
him well we're talking about I'm I'm.
Literally capitulating on something I already got wrong.
This season, which was ever drafting Greg George, I let my
my love of the short Kings go a little bit too far.
Michael Wilson, I, I, and he might even be capped out on how
high he can go. Like how high can the third wide
receiver on the Arizona Cardinals actually get?
But I do think he is more like a you're on the clock at. 1610 and
you know you need one more wide receiver and structurally you
don't care which third tight end you get.
Then just take him Like what? Like, you know.
So that that's where that's where I'm at with Michael
Wilson. I'm going to go Khalil Herbert.
It's going to be obnoxious. How high this guy goes.
You're not going to like it. We're going to get mad about it.
Starting running back on the Bears, That's what we're going
to. Start hearing right.
Starting running back. On the Bears, where does that
archetype of guy? Typically go high high.
So I would. I'm gonna.
Be drafted now I'm gonna be. Chasing them up a little bit.
If I'm getting them around, pick one O 5 or something.
Cool, because I don't think he settles there.
I think he settles maybe quite a bit above there.
Yeah, I'm gonna go Guy. We haven't talked about, but I
think we got some decent news on this preseason.
Is Todd Chandler going to pick two O 5 now?
Again admitting mistakes, I was a McBride over Chandler Slappy
throughout this offseason. I watched McBride take one run
this preseason, so we'll talk about it.
But. Man, watching McBride in the
preseason. He looks rough compared to
Chandler and I didn't watch many preseason, so maybe I'm biased
by the one game I watched, but Chandler looked really good out
there. He dominated, you know, even
Abraham Smith was mixing with the starters, but Chandler had
way more snaps than both Abraham Smith and Dwayne McBride.
And the preseason game, I think the one hole you can poke in
this is Kenneth Wong. Woo was out due to injury and he
has been listed on like the unofficial depth chart as the
RB2. So maybe you can say it's still
a little bit of a competition between Chandler and Kenneth RB2
slot. But man, I think Chandler really
dusted McBride in that preseason game.
He looks like he can do a little bit of everything, you know, Had
a couple catches, had some rushes between the tackles.
So I think he's gonna emerge sort of as the clear running
back to and start going up in sort of the Jerome Ford Zamere
White range as sort of unproven but clear running back to on
their team in the next couple weeks.
All right. Davis, do you have something to
say on Chandler or, Well, it's just that.
I guess. I mean, he did look good, but.
This is a case of like every camp report on Ty Chandler is
like, you know that the infomercial gift of the guy
carrying the bucket and the hose and like falling over himself
like that is the visual representation of every Ty
Chandler camp update. It's like he fumbled, he missed
the pass block, he can't run, He doesn't have hands.
Like it's like every. And so, like the beat writers,
obviously there's some degree of like, you know, these are not.
Season football guys, they're just sort of and they're and
they don't see every part of practice.
There's some that's buying closed doors.
But yeah, I I want it. And I also tie Chandler, another
guy where my bags are packed already.
So I don't feel the need to draft more.
But like, I am wondering if Kenny and Wong, who wasn't hurt,
like what would that distribution of them like look
beat writers? They do an incredibly valuable
service for this. Industry, but I would like to to
go toe to toe with with the beat writer industry in projections.
I don't. I don't do projections, but I'm
pretty sure I could out project. Well, it's always projections
are always fun. 2020 to 25 touches per game, right?
It's always 2025 touches. They have no beat.
Writers do have no. Sense of how many plays are
actually. Brandon Yeah, Like, I think both
these guys can be getting 25 touches a game.
Wow. How does that work?
Yeah, Yeah. Yeah.
That's fair. All right.
That was a good two hour show guys.
Pat let's see what's going on. Legendary upside.
It's a lot of tight end content is being churned out the past
couple. Yes, last last few days tight
ends have been. Talk of the town over at
Legendary Upside. I got two articles that came
out, one last week on Mark Andrews and then looking at
previous, I call them Impact, Impact, tight end seasons, but
kind of tight end seasons that made any kind of difference at
all. And looking at those seasons to
determine like what we're looking for a tight end.
So, Mark Andrews. Checked all the boxes on that
profile, wrote about him. Travis Kelsey does as well.
But you know, you know that that's why he was one O 6.
And then this morning I put out another article on the site
looking at the other early drafted tight ends and kind of
how they fit within this kind of player archetype thing I'm going
to be doing. And then the next article that
I'm going to be working on is going to be a legendary running
back article. So I recommend that I'm planning
to do that one completely free. So if you haven't signed up for
the newsletter, sign up for the newsletter for free and you'll
get that article delivered right to your inbox whenever I'm done
with it. You can also sign up for $99 a
year and get a $50 underdog credit as part of that.
Or it's 10 bucks a month if you just want to sign up and then
cancel in September, which is, you know, an acceptable thing to
do. Awesome stuff, Davis.
What about you? I saw you got some.
Was it someone from Sumer Sports you had on the take?
Ass. Yeah.
Ted, what a what a man. These.
These, uh, these real analytics. Guys but the the cool thing
about him was that uh he is a nerd like us.
He plays best ball but like he's doing it like with with like you
know all this crazy data and stuff that I can't even imagine.
So he was good. Um I think uh JM to win is gonna
come on uh sports good fan super ball podcast this week.
So I like it's. Helpful for me to talk to people
who are not a part of the the cabal.
You know to to be like what are what are people who do this way
differently than me drafting like I I think that's cool and
then that's cool. Yeah.
And and we're just gonna we're gonna keep biting.
We're dude we are we are close. I have you guys gotten to this
point yet where you're like, I'm so close to the season and I
have so many more drafts left that I need to do like.
So many more drafts. It's a double edged sword like I
want to do the drafts cuz I'm like there's so many more takes
I. Wanna get off, you know?
Yeah. And then there's also, like, I
wanna also just be done drafting.
I'm like, I'm pretty good. But yeah, there's a lot more
drafts to come. I feel like I need to correct a
lot of things in the next couple couple weeks for sure, so I'll
be drafting a ton. We'll be back next week.
I believe Leonie is going to be joining us.
Get the ETR. Oh my God, this Five years 3
just dropped. I know what.
I'm doing this afternoon. Jeez.
But yeah, I can't do it. I can't do.
It's over. $5 Buy ins Give me another 50 to $100 Buy in
underdog. That's the last thing I'll say
before we close out. Give me, give me like a small
field, $100 Buy in. What was the 50 called?
That was a fun one. We got Gretch coming on.
Here for a second. I don't know what that was
about. But anyways, we gotta go all
Yeah, see you guys next week. We'll be back for the only we
can't go past two hours, these guys.