We got pack train yards per Gretsch, Davis Matic, your hair.
I haven't seen your hair down like this in a while.
Looks good, buddy. You're muted.
Pulling a look at this. Background noise, but not Davis.
Everyone's Savor this. These are those few moments
where you don't hear, Davis talking on a show that he's on
really just soak it in. So you're saying we could just
talk and talk and talk and now I'm back to cut you guys off his
few minutes. How's it going Davis?
It's so it's good. I was just doing some yard work
so I didn't have didn't have my hair up you know the the life of
a Suburban home. What yard?
Where I couldn't. It's 10 degrees here.
What is it? Where you are right now?
Jesus Christ. My lights are a mess.
It's it is also like 10 degrees but I was cleaning up after my
dogs. Gotcha, gotcha.
Um, have you started to get excited about the playoff
challenge here? Yeah, I was just registering
some teams this morning and I mean it feels like they're just
some very clear angles where the Boomers who play on FF P CR are
going to be very different Current than than us which you
know, provided Derrick Henry and the Titans don't make the Super
Bowl. I think should be good.
Yes. And, you know, we're going to do
the tightrope walk. Today of unveiling, some
ownership projections while, not necessarily stealing Hassan's
Thunder for the Boomer opto reveal tomorrow night, that'll
be at our normal time, 9:15. Hassan and Blair will be joining
us Gretch. I know you have been typing up.
A storm in our Discord chat with Leone and Pat any new
Revelations on this contest since we last talked yesterday.
I wouldn't say any big new ones. I'm excited for Davis is I mean,
he starts with fading Derrick, Henry.
He knows how to play to the crowd a little bit.
Any chance we get that, they Derrick Henry around here.
We're very happy today. I can't wait for 2022 when he
Bears me again. Yes.
Yeah Pat and I did a podcast the other day where we realize that
he's going to turn 29 and pack because I was like Pat, we can't
do this again. In Pat's like he's 29 coming off
the foot injury and I was like great, our brain.
That's right. Right.
And Pat you it feels like your first pass at ownership
projections. Is it in a good spot or still a
very fluid situation? No I think it's in a good spot
looking at some projections couple different sets of
projections which helped me feel like I landed on the right.
Ownership of talking about Hassan and he's always got his
finger on the pulse of the Boomer.
So he helped me correct a couple spots been help me correct a
couple spots so I'm feeling good feeling good about some of these
like 50/50 situations that I was really unsure about.
Once you start like, projecting, you know, the teams that need to
get fate of the lot and where the quarterbacks are going to go
at all sorts to start to point you in the right direction.
Yeah, and so let's just start very high level here.
Obviously, you can build a super team in this.
Actually can literally pick whatever plays you want.
You can hashtag play the best plays but that armor, you want
whoever you want, but it Nestor isn't necessarily your best path
to winning this contest. So the conversation, we were
starting to hit on yesterday with Daigle was, you know, how
unique do you have to get? And there's going to be lots of
these situations where there's two, maybe three, maybe four
guys, on a team that are viable, but one is the better play, you
know, they're just going to project for more points.
So what? Going to kind of go through and
I think the whole, you know, Crux of this contest is how much
are you willing to sacrifice from a projected Point
standpoint, you know, to be a little bit more unique off of
the chalk line up. So Pat, how are you thinking
about that? At least right now?
As far as you know what the fields doing verse, how unique
we need to get in some of these spots?
I think that, you know, as doing the ownership, make me just
reminded me that you don't have to even get that unique because
like, you know, you're looking at deante Johnson.
For example, I had him at one point and at single-digit
ownership now, I think that's wrong.
I have them in the teens now, but you're kind of.
But even then, I mean, you know, teams number one, wide receiver
will probably be in the teens because of how many people are
gonna have two feet. Pittsburgh, you look T Higgins.
I think is ultimately probably going to get squeezed because
mix in is someone that is pretty easy to go to, you know, I
ultimately think the Arizona running backs are going to be
pretty low and unless we get news oh because yeah, people
just don't want to play that guessing game so you can
probably get, you know, the the higher owned of those two will
probably be in single digits is how I have it right now.
So there's like lots of spots where you're picking.
Kind of a no-brainer like very middle of the road like solid
DFS play like nothing crazy and they'll be you know, 15 percent
or less. What do you guys think?
Should we just dive in here? I think we decide we're going to
go maybe team by team obviously some of these teams won't have
as much of a conversation surrounding them at.
Do you have a spot you want to start pet?
Yeah. Well we just go a team by team
and alphabetical or if that's if that works for you, let's do it.
Okay, what is that? I got the sheriff, alphabetical
order, I'm like this, bring the screen up here on your, on your
screen. Just so it's a little bit
bigger. Yep.
God you and I should also mention so Pat's can of course
be updating these throughout the week.
We're also going to make this available in the ship chasing
Discord. If you are a member, you will
have access to that. We will post that in there and
you can get the updated version as the week progresses.
So right out of the gate. Pat we have Arizona DST as the
as the most popular Arizona play.
That's how I have it right now. I people want a couple of want
to fade Arizona, right? Because they're going to be
playing chalk. I have cup is the talkies player
that I think I've ever projected in the contest.
And what we saw last year was that Allah was the chalk defense
going against DK Metcalfe and Tyler.
Lockett who are both? Like it was sort of like picked
up one of those wide receivers. Don't think about it too hard.
Play the defense on the other side and move on.
And I think we're going to get that this year.
Except you just pick up the cups, kind of a no-brainer and
then, you know, you can talk yourself in a scenario where
it's like staffer throws a Pick, 6 cup, smashes Rams win.
I'm already got. I've already got a huge lead so
I think Arizona ultimately be the choc T now I think that'll
change if we get Connor like Connor going solo is basically
like bringing up Arizona as a fair amount of feeds the kicker
I have fairly high as well, not too much pure fade but I just
think that No one's going to want to jam, Zach ertz, you
know, Pete where Pete was yelling at me and Davis for
Tottenham in the in the summer. People just it's not, it's a
shame that people didn't want Earth's Gerald, it's
unbelievable. But what, you know, we can't
change people's minds here. We just got to predict what
they're going to do and I don't think that hurts is going to be
like thirty percent owned which is kind of what you need in
order for some kind of fade not to be popular unless we get
Conor Davis scratch. Anything jump out to you looking
at this The Cardinals run. Well, this is a it's already
interesting to me because basically a huge chunk of this
contest is figuring out which dog can not only win, but maybe
even when multiple games and to me Arizona is like a great
definition of that because they have great players.
Like the really the when you start criticizing Arizona, you
basically start with their head coach.
But if Cliff just like randomly runs into not being a donkey for
one game, like Arizona is A team.
And so like, could they make the Super Bowl?
Can they beat the Buccaneers like yet to me?
They easily can like I so I wonder if they have to go
through Green Bay most likely have a horrible.
They have a horrible at. Yeah, they have a horrible
route, but I mean, but even even two games of Kyler, two games of
Kirk like, that is pretty interesting to me.
And then, you know, James Connors been playing through
this heel injury. Like there certainly is a
scenario Where Edmonds is back. Connor re-injures is.
He'll Edmonds doesn't play Connors.
And they're like both of those are pretty intriguing spots to
me and I look at it and see the receivers.
I mean I think even if they're one and done I mean people are
going to be really interested in playing Hertz or the D like
we're projecting here and the kicker but I mean Kirk is
vaguely. Interesting.
Certainly can hit on a Long play and be their highest scoring
player. I mean, I'm not going to tell AJ
Green, but like if you want, we need to generate another $35.
You like, no, I like that. The other thing I would say for
them on, in a scenario where, like maybe you're playing Kyler,
I think I would play it as San, Fran beating Dallas because like
Pat mentioned, Arizona would have to go to Green Bay.
Otherwise, I don't really think. I'm not really giving Philly a
great chance to beat Tampa, but you need one of those upsets to
Yeah, you could do it with the Tampa losses.
Well, you could do it at a loss as well, but either way, you
need, one of those upsets to get Arizona to not have to go to
Lambeau in the second round. And then, I mean, even if they
have to go to Lambeau in the conference Championship, there's
probably passed the Cuyler being the optimal QB with Green Bay
then being the sea runs so much. Yeah.
Like, maybe Rogers, isn't that great in a three-game scenario,
maybe it's a Green Bay, Tennessee, Super Bowl.
And so there's not necessarily a clear AFC quarterback.
And Kyler has some some big games in their two wins and get
in their conference Championship run.
And like, you know, obviously in the Green Bay Super Bowl Adams
is going to pop really, really big, and so there could be some
ways that caller could work that way.
But yeah, I would probably play it with an upset in one of the
other NFC games that make sense. Yeah.
And in Silas notes that you know Evans is out Connor will be a
Smash. If Emmons is out we're have to
scrap this whole everything about Arizona's wrong if evans's
out. Yeah.
So the chalk D is going to come. Way down.
No One's Gonna want to play it like that.
Everyone's still going to play cop, but then you can play it as
kind of a high-scoring game with Connor.
He'll be super chalky. The D's will have to go
somewhere else is going to change up.
Basically a ton about the entire Contest.
New England will probably cut this game on Saturday or Sunday.
I think it's Monday. Yeah.
Oh you're right getting this. It is the money game.
So we're not going to know you're not gonna die.
Not gonna know. We're not gonna know which is
that. That's like a super interesting
angle, right? Is like, I'm playing James
Conner at at 11% but he might be, you know, had we if if that
came out tomorrow, he'd be what 35-ish or something?
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Running back is pretty thin.
It's something that we're going to go through overall and so,
yeah, he probably get jammed. I think he'd be so dumb.
Robbins was in the mid-20s last year.
Nick Chubb was 32 percent last year.
Those feel like pretty decent comps for Connor.
I think he coming around around there but Acres was like, what
ten percent last year? So, you know, you could, you
could end up in kind of an acre situation where you're taking on
risk, but you're getting a lot of outsized upside.
Yeah, that will be an interesting one.
Let's who do we have up next Buffalo?
Yeah, Buffalo, let me get them. Just some amazing spreadsheet
work from the pakery at is a freak in the sheets.
All right, a freaking spreadsheets.
So this was one. We're talking to Daigle
yesterday on the show and he was talking about seven Singletary.
Peter mentioned Devin singletary's Underdog ATP coming
up? Ultimately, I still have Diggs
is the chocolate part of me just feels like if they were priced
you know, at the same price on DraftKings this week everyone
would be jamming digs like I don't know, it's just hard for
me to imagine that Singletary. Be played.
I had a big straight up. I have Allen's slightly ahead of
where he was last year, but it does feel like it's kind of
harder for me to, no, no, sorry. I haven't behind.
He was at 38 percent. Last year, I did bump them up
closer to where he was, but I have him down partly because
Singletary, stealing ownership and Mahomes is going to be more
popular this year. I think so too.
Yeah, yeah. Because he's getting a fourth
game. So it changes the quarterback
equation. But and tyriq and Kelsey, you're
both banged up, right? I have your hands up.
That's been we'll get there but that's one PC RV is not pulling
any ownership this year either. But I was struggling with moms
because I want to bump him off more.
I probably will ultimately bump more but I wanted to kind of
check in with people before I did that because he was at 15%
the last two years. I have them above that now but
it's hard for me to project her like 28.
Percent or something, you know when he's been historically not
that high end. But the major difference is the
last two years, they had a bye. Yeah right yeah.
So it does it does change the equation their favored to win
the AFC over Tennessee who has the by and yet for this contest
you get that extra game out of my home so it is pretty unique.
I could see him in the high twenties.
Yeah I already found feels like the best play of Every available
player. So do it that way.
You will for ownership, all right?
Taking encasing player and specifically a superfan Davis
mad. I just said he's the best player
in the tournament because just because it's fairly unique with
the, the way the buys of changed as mom said, the by every year
they've made the playoffs. I'm pretty sure.
That's correct. I think so.
So and the, by the way, they like the markets agree with
this, the markets have the chiefs as a far-out size
favorite considering that they have to play.
An extra playoff game like they are, they are ahead of the
Titans in the Super Bowl Market, which is like just if you think
about probability, that actually makes no make any sense.
So like the market is just giving them the win.
When I ultimately steal some ownership from Allen and give
some of it to my homes. Where do you think?
The where do you think that goes between dignitary?
I think Singletary. Yeah.
I mean, the one thing I was, you know, Daigle had a pretty high
forecast for Singletary. The one thing I was mentioning
with the underdog stuff, a lot of what's pulling the
Singletary. Ownership up is well one running
back being gross. But two people often the digs
Alan start is just a very normal start in the underdog.
And so then when you're looking for your next Buffalo Bills
player, like singletary's the guy because Knox and Beasley and
Gabriel Davis are all cheap. So I think singletary's just
keeps creeping up because those Josh Allen dig.
Otters are like, oh, I want to grab my next bill, so I'm not
quite sure how transferable it is to this contest.
But that coupled with the fact that DFS projection systems have
loved Singletary, the past few weeks, he's paid off on those
projections. I think the field is definitely
more comfortable with Singletary.
Has a play than they ever. Would have been even four weeks
ago. That's a good point but not
compared running think you'll be above digs.
Or do you think, do you think I need to close the door?
The Gap. I don't I can't imagine him
flipping him that would seem crazy to me, but I would be Pro
closing the gap. I was just going to note, I
looked up my homes and he has had a by every they haven't.
Last time they played the walk around that Alex with the QB.
So yeah, we have not seen him in this contest as a wild-card
quarterback. I'm well, Allen's coming down
after this conversation and Singletary will come up.
Yeah, it at the thing too is just like thinking about yeah,
the recency bias and how people are kind of viewing the bills
right now. But yeah, let's move on to the
Bangles and we can discuss more Mahomes when we get to the
Chiefs. Walk us through what we're
looking at here with the Bangles.
Yeah, so first run didn't have mixing as the chalk but if you
as you go through this, running back is kind of tough, you know,
you're going to end up. Like do you want to play Nagi
Harris or Josh Jacobs? Most people aren't gonna want to
go to the Eagles running back. We just talked about Arizona,
being totally up in the air, and I think that's ultimately going
to push people to mix in over Chase and Higgins.
Projection systems have to split these two.
I think e TR has Higgins. Slightly ahead.
Actually, I think Chase will be more popular but chick than
Higgins but still, it's kind of one of those things were,
especially with mixin. You can talk yourself into like,
You know, I'm playing this for shootouts along the way where
mix-ins get in the touchdowns but then if I actually get a run
at a Cincinnati mix-ins, probably going to be really
really valuable so table. Yeah.
So you kind of feel like you have more outs with mixing in
some ways to and I ultimately do think he'll he'll be the choc
Borough. Maybe this is a touch high for
Borough with my home's coming up but I don't know, just the
ceiling. Then he showed off the last two
weeks that he played so high, I think I'll catch some ownership.
Yet. Davis, how do you feel about
like the chase verse Borough? Stop, because I do agree.
Just from what Chase did more recently is going to be more
front of mine. Like I think if you flipped the
like Jabbar, Jason, the run this course they had.
Yeah, no, I think you're right. What's most interesting to me
is, I'm looking at, you know, realistic upsets from round one
and I feel like the Raiders can win this game.
Like, not really would not be that.
Surprising, I know I know Zach. Taylor got a lot better at
coaching throughout the Or to the year but it certainly does
feel like he could get into, you know, a playoff game and be
like, we gotta establish it, we got a ball control, we got a pun
and then, you know, all of a sudden DeSean Jackson is like
streaking to the end zone and the fourth quarter and they're
down 10 points and he just doesn't know what to do.
So I wonder if I wonder if, you know, going with with MacPherson
or the defense here, or something like that, as one of
your, as kind of like, one of your puns spots that is it's a
little interesting. To me from liking.
All right perspective, very excited about the bagels, but
that picture you just painted was way too good.
At least on the sideline with his helmet off and he just looks
pissed and, and like he's like I get I can just see it and you
know, this is always the worst game, the first AFC playoff game
on Saturday. It's always the worst game.
This was the game that the Texans used to be in every year.
This was the game that Who is that?
Raiders backup quarterback. Connor Cook had to start a game.
Like if this is always the absolute worst, playoff game,
the one Texas game was against Josh out a few years ago when he
tried that lateral like tall. My God.
Now that was a great game that ended up being a great game.
Yeah, no. But I will say, I mean, the way
you paint it makes a lot of sense.
I'm so like, like happy or confident about the Bengals it
in part because I feel like they have sort of just crossed the
Rubicon. They were so good in their last
two games past so good. Good bro.
How to comment this week? I just on Twitter, I think this
morning actually where they're asking him about Joe Mixon in
the Run game and he said something like, yeah, like how
helpful that is. And then also the what did he
call him? The freaks we have on the
outside the, you know, something immediately referenced Jason
Higgins. I think, yeah, I think the
mentality has changed a little bit where they understand that
Jason Higgins are so vital to them winning.
I'm hopefully. See ya at Pat.
What is your it? Because I think one of the big
thing my guess is. People feel pretty comfortable
playing this game as a shootout. I mean, when you do look at the
markets, people are overconfident that the Bangles
are going to win based on just like the underdog atp's.
I'm seeing, but I do think people might do lots of Mixon
and Jacobs or Jacobs and Jamar Chase and play this game as a
shootout. I think you're going to get a
fair amount of that. I have the Raiders.
I can actually go over to the team break down here.
And I have the, are the total Fades, actually.
I didn't paste it, but I have the odds to advance but these
are sorted by their odds, to advance.
And you can see, you know, Las Vegas compared to New England
is, you know, a lower fade even though doing on has a much
better chance of advancing. Like, I'm not playing New
England on any of my team's. I don't think there's one really
like you. I however me it seems I do I'm
not playing Patriots players, like literally, what is the
point because I not with I think of the dogs other than the
Steelers, I think they are in the toughest spot because
they're if they get down 10 points like that's just it.
There's just as nothing they can do.
There is not there's not a way Bill Belichick and like Jedi
mind trick his way out of a 10-point deficit with this team
I'll never forget Hayden Winks summed up the Patriots
perfectly. He said that if the Patriots got
into a fifty three man race against every other team, they
would finish last which is like that is the Perfect way to
describe them as. Yeah, Amy Harris would be fun.
The only thing I've I don't like I agree with you Davis.
I just it's a very hard for me to imagine them winning but I
will say to and if you're making you know three to five teams, I
think making stands like that is completely fine.
If you're making a bunch, you really start to get in dicey
territory. If you're just like, completely
exiting out of tea, okay, so a couple comments about Boyd being
low and he probably is a little bit low on But where does it
come from? Because you think, where do you
think Borough comes in? Is this a little too high at 12%
or is that? I don't think that looks a
little on. Who's clicking?
Tyler boy, who is clicking Tyler.
What do you do when you have the long TVs, the last few weeks you
only have like five targets? Like I've always loved Tyler
Target are on the years. Like 15% he ever outscore even
with the long TVs that he ever outscore.
One of Higgins are chasing a game.
I don't think he did. Oh, there's that one game we get
out for. We did outscored t a couple
times. When tea was going through
You're scoring of the to and he did.
Did he? What about mixing was he wants
to the outscore mixing in that game?
Probably not. I don't think there's really
been a game. We're Tyler boy has been in the
high end or on their teeth and that's what you need.
You need him to out because Mixon, Chase and Higgins are all
going to be really popular and boy it's going to be all right.
Burrows gonna be somewhat popular so you need him to be
the optimal play. It's pretty thin.
Okay. Yeah it was a 15-10 win over the
Broncos and week 15. He was their highest highest
score if they do that. I mean that I'll just pack it up
now. I think this does actually
remind a little bit of the juju play for last year.
I'm so afraid of that. No, no, Tyler believe is has
never been, I mean, not with these set of teammates.
He's never gotten the theoretical type of usage that
the Jew has gotten. Yeah, I think that burrow stuff
looks right. I mean he's coming off of one of
the most insane finishes to a season.
He feels to me a lot like how maybe a Russell Wilson would
feel in previous years where people can talk themselves into
this really high ceiling Super Bowl.
Run from the Wild card spot. And people are just really on
board with the Bangles getting like to shoot out games right
now. Like everyone just convince
themselves of that. Yeah, all right, let's move on.
Cowboys Cowboys, ETR has CD project for the most points
right now, but it's like very close between lamb and Zeke and
ultimately I think the running back need pushes each head.
Then a pretty big gap down to Schultz Cooper Dak, I think
could come up from here or a touch.
I think he's a decent play but there's other options like Kyler
like bird. Errol.
Like if you want to go for that, kind of Underdog to make a run.
Bet you have other options. So yeah, ultimately, I think
most of the ownership will condense on Zeke and lamp.
Yeah, I like DAC / Kyler pretty comfortably.
I mean, they're, they're odds to based on the betting Market are
about double to make the Super Bowl.
Then, Arizona some of that's because they're at home in round
one and is a three seed like if something were to happen to the
box or even if there. The go to Tampa Bay and win in
round two. And the Packers got upset, they
could get another home game down the stretch, as a three seed,
Arizona, as a five-seater in all likelihood is, is making the run
all the way on the road to him saying, like, Dallas could
actually end up with two home games potentially, and they got
a good defense to. So, Dak Pops to me here and
Martin Schulz, obviously, due to a problem with the problem with
Schultz is he just got instant cocked.
When Blake Darwin came off, the I are like that.
That looks High to me based out here an ass.
Season-low, route, share and snap share immediately.
When Blake Darwin came off the IR.
Yeah, I agree with you Davis on that although I just think
recency bias just absolutely plays people in don't generals
has been like really solid. I was going to ask you, you
know, boots on the ground Dallas.
Cowboys like where's the sentiment?
Do you think on these Cowboys? Because you look at these top
five six, guys, you can remove the defense, like, no one ever
really separated as like The alpha fantasy gay.
People are people are out on a Mari.
I will say that people are are done with Amari Cooper and it's
so funny like Zeke also just useless.
I mean, Zeke has just been useless for the last six weeks
of the NFL season. Basically I think maybe at one
good. I think he had a two touchdown
game dispersed in there, but it is just funny to see him more on
than lamb, more on the deck moral and then Amari when you
know what you're getting, I guess the, the The The Devil's
Advocate Arts when I couldn't couldn't come up with that term
would be that if the Cowboys win two or three playoff games, I
mean, you just know that they've given Zeke his touches in there.
Like you just know beyond a shadow of a doubt.
They have spent time feeding Zeke because that's what they
do. Whatever things are going.
Well it's so funny watching Z trying to turn a corner of this
year. I like that.
But I mean like if it's well blocked up the Of the go around
the corner and he's the literally never going to make it
around. It's true.
Sometimes he looks like he looks shot out of a cannon on one run.
I think it's a week 16 week 17, maybe where it was actually
called back to holding, but he looks shot out of a cannon but
it was right up the gut just like he just well I read I read
an NBC Sports Edge blurb, that that, that run you were talking
about Was His Highest game speed.
That had been recorded all year 12 mph.
Like there's like 60 I mean, to be fair, there's an interesting
comment and chat about Dallas fade being interesting.
I think. And, I mean, I think the, the
lines, you greet, the percent, retire, yourself, retire
yourself. San Fran is live to win in round
one. Absolutely, I know Davis's.
You know. Do you know?
Know, all right. They are.
But if San Francisco, if San Francisco wins this game, one of
these Dallas guys has gotten 25 plus, like one of the skill
position guys, possibly, but San Fran can win games through
running the ball and control. And clock.
Dialysis had some games where they've looked really bad,
offensive lie. I'm not.
Yeah, I find I think you play the defense then a it was
already bought as Casey does Super Bowl tickets in order to
imagine. Can you imagine one thing I
think we should address because I've just noticed it pop up a
few times. Once with Tyler Boyd, then a
Galaxy brain, Cedric Wilson. I think we should just kind of
emphasize that that level of galaxies branding is just not
needed. In a contest like this,
especially, on an offense, where the ownership is already
incredibly spread out. What about what about the Galaxy
brain of playing Pollard over Zeke and saying, when the
bullets are flying and and they have to win these games, they're
going to say Zeke. We love you.
We know you're making all this money, but you literally cannot
play right now. You can see where I stand on
that. Galaxy brain Davis.
I don't give many guys 1% but I gave collared 14 cents coming
for me. Want to be overweight on this.
I'm not really buying the routes thing.
I mean, you can say, immediately got cut Big Crush, Philly and a
game that didn't really need to be going all out in.
I know the other guys are mostly played, but like when Darwin was
healthy earlier this year Schultz was still playing like,
beat him out. They started like 50/50, he
started to beat him out and was has been so good.
All year. We I don't, I mean, I think it'd
be really kind of bizarre if he just couldn't be productive
still, I don't know. I think he's Pretty sneaky
stuff. What about Cooper's 11%?
Because I'll probably bump up Dak like maybe two percent.
Something like that. Should I come from Cooper?
Should the check? Come from Schultz.
Where's that come from? Mike Schultz, I agree with
Davis's. Take, I just can't imagine
anyone being excited to click Amari Cooper.
Yeah, that 11% feels very I to me.
Okay. That'll that's where.
That's where deck because I think I'm gonna raised a cab it.
All right, let's move on. We're going to have to play so
much along this place. We are Leona's loves.
That's the juju plays is a Mari is a mark because, yeah,
Pittsburgh didn't have a running back last year.
They just had three receivers that we were deciding between
All right, Green Bay, Packers massive, massive projection on
Davante, Adams. Can anyone see this?
Not being correct? It seems like know, it's
correct, but just feed me AJ. Dylan feed this to me, JJ
Dillon, it's cold, it's in Lambo.
I mean, come on feed JJ Dillon 1% bro.
Simon Davis em, like 20 of these are you doing?
I'm gonna do more now Davis. So much easier then you can make
up the running back points. That's true.
The trouble with AJ Dillon, is that you have to have that
script play out like three times because right, he's not getting
they're in a bit, please out, if it plays out twice and he gets
So it's a yes one smash right? One of these games.
Whichever one it is. He gets one Smash and then he
just gets 11 in the other two games.
Like 11 on average. What what what odds?
So that's like, what I'm taking it.
Yeah. You're still.
You're still, you're still just. Yeah.
Like doing, like, we're going to watch the first half of the
first game till I mean, this is Davis is perfect world.
Dylan's going to get like 10 to 12 carries and have like, 70
yards and be smashing Davis. Keep your body blowing and
naughty blows to Two minute. Warning Davante Adams is going
to catch four passes for 40 yards, to set up a field goal
and he's going to be ahead of do another half.
And that's why I turned into such a boomer whenever whenever
a Dylan comes up I just like I totally get, I get the ffp.
See ethos whenever AJ Dylan comes up, why is it?
They were, you know, Dylan and never wear on Henry.
I don't really because his price is right?
He's Arbitrage. Derrick Henry bro, do you really
is actually so is there anything else?
It's interesting to discuss with the Packers, I guess.
Rogers is the other interesting thing and how much people feel
confident because there is people are, you know, in on the
Packers, making the Super Bowl, it's just hard to Envision him
out scoring a specially, with the Titan.
This is where he was last year to 10% with the by.
So, Especially the Titans not being like a really popular one
seat on the other side, like it's really hard to see unless
it is the Titans then you can see Rogers.
But whoever it is the bills, The Bangles, whoever who makes them
run, obviously, Kansas City. If one of them, it's not the
Titans you're talking about an extra game as well.
And those guys don't necessarily have the same concentration of
weapons is Adams. I mean, those, those scenarios
where it's Green Bay, KC Green Bay Buffalo, it just feels like
it's Adams. Ian Adams Mahomes, right?
Yeah, yeah. And like, if you've got, I mean
in a weird way Aaron Rodgers that he just doesn't have that
much of a chance of beating Adams, over a long stretch and
then you obviously don't want to lose your quarterback, so you
need them to go to the Super Bowl, but over that many games
Adams is probably going to have a blow up your you're out.
I guess is that Rogers is the one you needed in the Super
Bowl. And gets the double scoring, a
Allen Lazard, Allen Lazard, mvs actually me say brown, they all
make their appearances and Rogers that's ago.
Yeah that's what it do it. Yeah um I was just going to say.
So you think 0% on fade and in kicker and in DST or one percent
total on those three? Well number.
The number one seeds. Never get faded.
Yeah, they really don't. Last year, I think that the two
guys with a by had about one percent combined ownership
between DST, but between hard fate DST and kicker, they had 1%
fade. So yeah, also just to be clear
with these. This isn't what we think they
should be. Our lineups are going to be what
we think they should be. These are what?
I have. No Aaron.
He owns a lot of want. I want that on the record in the
process. Um is is just what an incredible
play Davante Adams is. So it's just going to be very
hard for any of these non Adams Packers to pull significant
ownership. I mean, if Adams isn't the guy
and like Davis is saying he plays age of Dylan and they
probably got to lose in their one game and yeah, exactly.
Dylan has. But the problem is that Dylan
Like absolutely cannot get there in a loss, I don't think right,
but Jones can so yeah, because it can, if you're playing like,
let's say you're playing Let's say you're playing Dallas to
win. Then and yet but you want to bet
against Green Bay. Well Arizona, most likely is
going to Green Bay if they win. So you play or you could play
cup and Jarron Jones and just hope.
I mean no one's really going to play Stafford, but, but
essentially I'm saying, is like it in a Kyler lineup, for
example, you're probably betting against Green Bay.
So, in that scenario, you could go with Aaron Jones who you need
them to be one and done if you're taking your inner Jones
like I guess Aaron Jones has enough touchdown Equity that
over two games. He could be the guy It does, it
feels pretty he would have to have one of those signature,
Aaron Jones games, where he scores like four touchdowns on
12 touches. I was just yeah because though
the the ownership is going to be massive, like your 81% here is
huge and so if you did hit that correctly.
Yeah. It's a huge.
You have the field like dominated all that.
Yeah, yeah. Um all right let's move on to
whoever is next in the alphabet. All right, Casey.
All right, this is Davis is time to shine.
What was what was the sentiment on the Chiefs heading into the
playoffs last year? Was it was it all Kelsey coming
off? A just that massive year, it was
all Kelsey, he's like 70% under something and there was like a
little bit of Could be Damian Williams early week.
It was like, why do birds who were there could be the
contrarian play. And I think by late week, a lot
of people were like wait Terry kills.
Not even going to be played a lot.
Yeah, I think he was sort of like the, the contrary
apparently. Exactly a Tyree kill was a
contrarian pivot last year like don't don't get to off the
Border. You don't need to be playing
your by talking to people. This is the second time a Cedric
Wilson, Galaxy brain play as been.
Floated the chat guys, you Ew, don't need.
I told you guys, there's two touchdowns a week 17, we're
going to give 5%, he's like, put it in, I'm gonna put in.
So I'm making a note to add citric Wilson to like 2%.
The people love it. They love great Boise State
player. All right, Davis boots on the
ground. How does this look to you here?
I mean, my home's look slow to me and Kelsey look slow.
I feel like, I feel like we're basically setting up for the
same thing with Tyreke where he and he did, just get hurt.
Right. So we everyone saw him on that
because, you know, it was a Saturday National TV game.
Everyone saw him limping around. That might have been McColl
hardman's. First-ever 100-yard game.
It almost has to be his first 100 yard game that he just had
against the Denver Broncos. So it's a long touchdown has
come on, man. He had to have had at least one
it at that II. Don't even know.
But I know like that's gotta be is probably right.
It's gonna be so depressing to find.
Yeah, I can, I can find out right now.
Career game log. Yep.
First 100 years ago? No.
Yeah, 97 once before 9:00. So, so, I mean, I really think
with Kansas City. You are choosing from Kelsey
Tyreke and Mahomes and these Kelsey look slow Tyreke looks
High Mahomes looks a little bit low.
But even the way these are projected, I'm just looking at
this going, like Mahomes is just such a smash because they have
even, they've even expanded this year, the, the level to, which
they are willing to troll. You on offense, like through,
you know, throwing touchdowns two offensive tackles Michael,
Burton is getting carries, they're using I right now for
the game, this weekend against the Steelers, I have been
projected to use for running backs like it.
They are just, they are just ready to troll you to death and
Mahomes is the beneficiary of all that trolling.
What? As Davis talks it out, just
because we don't have the sentiment on Kelsey heading into
this year. We mentioned the Tyree kill
injury stuff, I could see Mahomes really get pushed up.
His people are like, I don't know who to play between Kelsey
and hell. I'll just play my home.
I was thinking I was thinking that Pat Hill more on 20, that
looks good tell me, you're tired, but I don't know from
where you're not getting any. Maybe in years past some of the
running backs would have pulled some some, you know, Pringle
Hardman, whatever would have pulled some no one's doing that
this year like those guys are stone-cold zeros, right?
Because I mean you have on so much uncertainty around the
backfield, one a split to both guys.
Guys banged 05 hurt. No one's excited to play either
of those. What about that?
Yeah, that looks great. Yeah, it's funny.
You move Edwards alert out of than it made me think about it.
I'm like, man. 3% on, not those guys, that might even wind up
high. Like, can you see?
I know just a certain point, you have to have like something got
a bit of, there's gonna be, there's gonna be like point two
five percent hard. To me.
Tell you, if I'm not clicking on Clyde ever two layers named no
one's clicking on car. That was hilarious -.
Yeah, well, that's sort of like the, you know, the quarter
percent Darryl Williams, It's and all that Davis.
You want to tragic nickel Arvin staff from looking at that game
like that we just did his last career-high, was his third
career game in 2019 week, 3, I know.
I buddy, I know I've been chasing the dragon.
This whole time isn't that another game too?
His third career, gave him three seasons.
Basically, then you finally did it, right, big when they needed
them. Let's move on.
We got la. Yeah, la I think is fascinating
similar to Green Bay. Yeah.
So hey even bigger shock. I just don't see how you get off
cup. I even, I don't feel like, I
think it's pretty easy to see why you wouldn't play them.
Been Jefferson, who are because because unlike the Packers where
you're like, there's just no way one of these.
Other guys can blow up over two or three games.
I think it's pretty easy to see. See, one of the running backs,
just totally smashing over two games.
Odell, scoring three touchdowns, and two games, igby scoring two
touchdowns and being like the tight end that you needed.
Like, now cup is obviously even a better play than atoms in
terms of, like, per game projection, but the Packers just
don't even like have enough offensive volume.
In the way they call plays is not even designed to have other
guys do well, but I think Stafford Acres, I would lean
Sony Odell like I think all of those guys.
Can can be, smashes everyone listen to Davis?
It's just it's such a tough needle to thread, right?
Because even in a loss cup could just massively outscore every
option. Yes.
Sony's Sony's only way of doing it would be to score five
touchdowns in the playoffs right, doing doing what they're
going to say in the one game also doing doing like, what
Lenny did for the Box. Yes, ugly.
It's just like, look, this is dumb and Davis is right, there's
a variance. But I just like, I open up his
game log, and it's insane. I'm gonna play Cooper.
Cup means Calvin Johnson. Dude, the ridiculous.
The interesting thing about Sony is that Like as the playoffs go
on, you would expect Acres probably to take more from the
point, but that's yeah, that's not the play.
You're just hoping you're praying, they lose.
And so you get Sony in the one game where he's going to get the
most touches and then you're done.
So, so let me, let me throw this out, they lose to the Cardinals,
Cooper cup gets his 30, Sony gets 19 Who would you rather
have? Even given that you feel much
better about your ability to get other wide receiver points as
opposed to running back to him that much better.
Ox's? Yeah this for flexes.
Yeah, it's the optimal in that scenario is going to have cup in
a flex, but I think there's going to be other exact point
program. Yeah, it would have to be like
two points or something to where you'd take Sony for the Yashin
Advantage. Yeah.
If you fade, if you fade Cooper cup, you don't need to play
Cedric Wilson. And in the, the Cooper, Stafford
Dynamic is like an even more exaggerated version of the
Rodgers. And Adams, one, where it's just
like, in Stafford, like, never getting there without bringing,
he's dead. Like, yeah.
Yeah, he has to because you also have to think through, if this
team goes on a run, how are they actually going to win, right?
And so like when you take Matthew Stafford, you need them
to probably go to Super Bowl East Conference Championship,
what scenarios are Stafford, the guy you need a quarterback in
cup, had a bad run. Yeah, right.
It's yeah, it seems like a really tough play and what do
ya? You have them at 3%.
Yeah yep. I'm sure that seems, I might be
light cup but no one ever comes in above 90.
But I just, I don't know. It's hard to see who those
people are. Yeah.
All right, not much interesting to talk about the Rams.
Who are we on to Vegas? Las Vegas?
I think the one big thing started, there's not much to say
but took us eyes will come up is like in a loss is usually where
the chalk doesn't work because the more guys that give apply
the more games they play, the more likely he is going to you
know he's gonna be part of them winning.
He's got the cream is gonna rise to the top, all that stuff but
in a loss also cup is so hard to see not being the time.
Yeah yeah yeah. Because we're going to go to
him. When other stuff isn't working,
he's just going to start dialing in on cup.
It's just really hard. It's really hard.
All right. Las Vegas here.
Is this our first fade as the top projection?
I think? So Arizona, I had the defense
has the top so you know soft fate.
Is the top of this is the first hard.
Fate is the top Josh Jacobs. Again, just gets you that
running back. That's much harder to fill
tight. End is like way easier to fill
actually the kind of like a lower tight end.
Significantly from the first ownership run that I did.
Because I was way above where the field was last year in terms
of their tight ends. I think they'll be above where
they were last year, but I also over projected tight end last
year. So didn't want to like massively
over project that which brings Waller down and Jacobs up, even
though I'm projections, I think they'll be pretty close, but if
you're going to play the Raider, I think you're doing it to get a
little bit different, running back and fill one of those
spots. So I think what?
Lauren will ultimately come in around this.
Like, I, this is one of the ones I thought through fair amount,
and I feel pretty good about the 15%.
Even though, I think it makes wallet pretty interesting.
Yeah, as another one with a wider love.
I love Waller there. Yeah, Walters Waters, great
there. But this another one where the
low and wide receiver kind of Pops me.
I think I've seen that a couple times now where it's like, okay,
140 at 2%, I saying that they're likely to lose in the first
round, I mean, obviously, they could Advance.
We just talk through that scenario, Davis, like that
scenario. That's a possibility.
I don't like it. That's not a world.
I want to live in, but I'm just telling you how it works.
Yes, Zack Taylor does this, but if they, You lose.
I can see a lot of pasta like I mean, run froze.
A lot closer to a coin flip with Jacobs and Waller in a loss than
those ownerships, you know. Like we're talking five times,
ten Jacobson a loss is probably Mega dust.
Which is interesting about this. Yeah.
We'll do you think people go Waller because I mean the FPC
does like you know they're really tight ends.
Yeah. I feel like I feel like I feel
like Jacobs maybe looks a smidge high and Waller looks a little
low. The only thing you got to
remember about Waller though for ffp see brain.
I mean he burned everyone who drafted him this year.
He's been out of sight. Out of mind.
He's going undrafted in these Underdog drafts granted
obviously 1.5 Here. But I feel like sentiment on
Waller is at an all-time low. Yeah, that's a good point.
I agree. I don't think wall is going to
be 9 times. Run 40.
Wish you just shift it in a gutsy.
I mean that just doesn't seem. I would want.
What do you think to be the caller, the wall or ownership is
going to compromise? Maybe that get really excited to
roll out like for tight ends because every year there's a few
there, like, holy shit, I can just roll out for stud tight
ends and that someone's gotta toss Waller into that.
But I just don't think a lot of people are going to even get
past, you know, Jacobs to him. It's really sad.
We're not having the Lamar Jackson vs.
Mark Andrews conversation considering this run that
Andrews just ripped off like it is.
It's a bummer that that's not an element.
We're watching the Steelers in the playoffs instead.
Yeah, it's pretty. Big bummer.
Oh man. Yeah.
I mean having the Chargers would have been so fun.
I mean, talk about a fun team for this contest, it would have
been like a more interesting version of The Bangles.
Carlson seems low Silas says kickers, tough Carlson might get
a child kicker, which would take some from the fade, but I think
right now I have Nick Folk coming in pretty high, but I
think that would probably come down if we get Connor because
then there will be more New England defense.
So everything kind of gets shipped around, but that's
probably right. They cook that Carlson's
probably a little low. I'll make sense.
All right, who do we have up next?
New England. Alright, skip it.
I mean, the boomers are going to love to play Damien Harris and
we gotta admit that. And there's a lot of DST kicker
at full fade. I mean that's like, what?
70 bright? I could I should take it back, I
could see playing the pick the Patriots defense, they get it.
They get a pick six and a 42 7 loss.
So the thing that's fascinating to me about the Patriots defense
and I was wondering about this to like if Alan is so popular,
will people use New England defense against Allen and
they're like, they should Yeah, I have a lower than I would
because of that concern, right? If it was a better like if they
were going against burrow or like it basically, anyone else
they would be the choc d by a lot?
I would assume I think this is right?
And it's a, I mean, just another one where I'm sitting, you're
going, I mean, if they lose in the first round, Jacoby Myers
catch could catch a passes. Hunter.
Henry could catch six and two touchdowns.
And, you know, if they if what if to eat, what is 84 45 and no
touchdowns do for you though. Make it you in the optimal.
I don't know. Well maybe I guess it for 45 is.
That's a real low. Wait up.
I don't know. I just I just am not
anticipating the Patriots being particularly competitive here,
but may I think that maybe that's like a minority opinion
though. What are like if you were to gal
brain or, you know, the the Patriots in because I agree with
Davis's thesis, right? Like if they're down there dunzo
but does that mean we get you know more Jacoby Myers?
Can we get Ramon? Ray Stevenson catching some
screen passes like is there anything there?
Something a freakin use Brandon Bolden this last game.
Yeah, I don't think Stevenson is that yeah, it's bold and not
Stevenson, I think. Maybe Myers, but Myers has no
touchdown Equity Hunter Henry. Feels like, okay, maybe Hunter
Hunter Henry feels feels like a great differential.
Actually, yeah. And I think this 4% about right,
like people aren't gonna be excited to click on her Henry,
man. Ow, the weather John brings up
it's looking bad. Add in New England, Cold Plus
win. We just saw New England, do the
three pass attempt game against Buffalo and beat that.
Like, that's how they're designed to play footballs just
like run every single play, right?
And the bills are, that's a tougher spot for the bills man
can like, you know, is that dead?
I don't know. I don't think that that did.
I mean, the the chances of advancing I think are like 12%
or something. Sorry, not of advancing, but
chances of making the soup. More like 12%, they're going to
be over faded relative to their chances of making it run, right?
Yeah. Yeah.
I do think it's interesting to just how people are thinking
through the bills as it relates to the Patriots because I think
everyone's assuming the Bills win but they're still not
necessarily excited to play the bills against the Patriots,
which brings me back to Davis's initial point about Mahomes
really separating from Allen. Just if people are like, oh
what? If I get a so-so game at Allen
in round one, where people feel pretty confident that Mahomes is
going to light up the Chiefs or the Steelers?
Yeah. All right.
Yeah yeah. I think the Allen stuff is is
outdated from the point about the by being really key.
Yeah, from homes, this year. alright, let's head on over to
Eagles. Another.
Another quick one. Yeah, yeah.
So maybe so, I think Goddard is pretty interesting.
Because it allows you to that allows you to not use Gronk,
Kelsey, you know like the temp we haven't got to Tampa Bay yet
but Tampa Bay is pretty interesting and Gronk does look
like one of their stronger plays and I think Goddard is having
their death but they're definitely not going to win
though. There's a lot of tight ends.
I mean you mentioned not playing gromp Kelsey but also like
wohlers in this Kittles in this you know we talked about Schultz
Earth's like there's a lot of freakin tight and I could see
Goddard but it's like you lose a little bit of the benefit of
like if he has a good game then he's probably the right tight
end because they're going to be tied into advanced and play
multiple games and so it's hard. Nothing.
Yeah. Yeah.
The Eagles are interesting because they're almost like 141
in terms of figuring out the projections for this.
I just literally went and looked at Washington last year because
you have Hogan Thomas was the clear plate?
No one was betting on Washington to Vance.
Good Terror McLaren, is the clear?
Number one, receiver, he came in at 3 percent.
You've got Gibson came in at. I think 22 %.
JD mckissick came in at 2%. It's a, you get Mi Sanders for
and then loga Tom's. I think was like ten and I feel
like God or might be slightly more popular.
So the only a be that to me from a projection standpoint makes
sense as a cop. But I need people are really
down on the box and I think we're pretty spooked about this
version of The box without Godwin and a be at least in my
head. I'm thinking the Eagles are
decently live. I don't know if the field
catches catches up to that, but it does make me more interested
in the Eagles than I, otherwise would be.
Yeah. And I agree with Davis that like
the way to play that if you are, if you think you're getting an
eagle's upset, I mean isn't Goddard just kind of the obvious
play in that case. Yeah, if you get two games out
of God, where he looks great, Yeah, I think ghadir I mean I
think basically got a real catch.
I mean Sanders might be high. This might be like Sanders won.
Got her 15 or something but you know the point remains that
Goddard space is going to catch all the skill player ownership
here. Ethan.
Yeah and the Eagles backfield is like the exaggerated version of
the Cardinals one where it's like not only do we have kind of
uncertainty there saying you know, Howard and Sanders will
both be back but like no one is necessarily excited about Either
of these guys know. And yeah Charlie points out they
go mentions mile Sanders is an interesting play but I don't
think it'll be popular. Yeah, just because you're all
you also have. Howard is going to be active for
this game so yeah, that'll be. I think five percent or lower.
Yeah. All right we are on to
Pittsburgh here. Another team that everyone is
lining up to fade. Yeah, I mean you 28 seems crazy.
Well, so nausea was tough because chub came in.
Like I said, earlier at 32% Dobbins, I think was 26% which
seemed like, you know, somewhat decent cops but then Acres was
10 percent last year, you could see that, you know, you could
see Nagi like being way over projected at 28 percent but no,
I don't know, I think I get it, I just I can't talk pet up on
this a little bit. I mean part of the reason I
think Pat your initial was like We're 20s if I'm not mistaken.
Yeah, I think I had like 20 to something like that.
Part of my thought was number one.
The running back position is light and Harris was a guy who
go all the way back to August. We were drafting the one to turn
and he was good enough all year that especially late that I
think people I mean especially the Boomers who don't really
look at skill that much like we I think looked at Jonathan
Taylor a lot differently last year because he was such a
better Prospect. I think people are like, Harris
has actually been rushing a fish.
Gently in the last couple of weeks and I think people are
like thinking like they're talking about him as a top five
pick next year. The thinking about him similarly
to Jonathan Taylor at this time last year basically which to me
seems crazy. I think probably the all you
guys seems a little bit crazy but there's a little bit of
that. And then the other side of it
that I pointed out was that pit last year in a loss in the Wild
Card round. Had that huge shootout and that
kind of lingers a little bit. I mean all their guys got their
Claypool of the two touchdown game Juju had the big game,
Deonte had a big game they're like Hard.
I mean I think their faith percentages right here but I
don't think they'll be like 70% faded because they still
everything is concentrated. People.
Love the Harris workload. People love the Deonte targets
you know? Yeah yeah.
And to that point. So I pasted into point five
percent chance of making the Super Bowl but I have them.
Not that high fated you know like compared to I think
Washington was the lowest last year, 82% faded.
So So I think they'll be over, played in a sense and if you get
the shootout, it's not overplayed.
But they'll definitely be overplayed relative to the
chances of advancing or making a big run.
Yeah, the other thing too. I'm wondering if playing that
game as a shootout is going to end up being a little bit
contrarian, you know, Evan mentioned, Deonte in the chat.
I kind of like that thought to I mean, I could totally see like
this having The Vibes of the Cleveland.
Yeah, I definitely rather play Deonte Nagi and in the way, this
game plays. What's your take on?
Deion's has ownership there Dave, do you think that's right?
I mean to me like I just went I just went through and made like
a little rough draft team, and Deonte was the Steeler that I
click through, but I think probably in the end, I will just
not play a Steeler at all like it just well, I don't know, it
gets it gets kind of clothes because you're like, I don't
know what I rather fade Philadelphia or Pittsburgh, I
don't know, it's pretty Close. Those are.
And I, but I like the Raiders more than the sealers, which I
think is maybe where I disagree with the market.
So people the comments here's and Pittsburgh defense feels
low. Charlie's talking about Boswell,
kicking a bunch of field goals. What do you think about the DST
and Boswell? And do you think people will
play those guys instead of fading them or ultimately Linen
on like Boswell instead of clicking Nagi see?
I feel like the soft face. The Steelers makes no sense
because it's kind of what I wear.
I was here, just gonna get there, just going to get boat
race like it's not like and and so obviously the defense is not
going to do anything, getting boat raised and you don't go to
Arrowhead and kick field goals. So it just feels like either you
play Deonte Nagi or Claypool or fryer with or whatever Prime
route. Maybe I'm like, yeah, I love the
deal, is probably one of my favorite plays seems good, it's
mookie has a great point. This is the other thing I was
saying to you, pal. At earlier with this is going to
be Benson final game of his career because they're going to
get their ass kicked and then they're going to let him throw
50 times because they're gonna be like you're going to go out
case. They are they already tried to
do this, by the way, they tried to do it in his final home game.
He threw 48 passes and and it was really bad.
It was such a really 53 for 189 yards.
It's exactly what's going to happen.
Yeah. So so a couple points on the
nausea thing. Two years ago, Derrick Henry was
massive chalk and AJ Brown. During his breakout rookie
season where he was just like crushing down.
The stretch came in at 6 percent Jarvis Landry last year came in
at 6 percent with Nick Chubb at 32%.
So I think Deonte is a little bit different last year.
Allen Robinson actually came in slightly above David Montgomery.
Both were in the teens, but I feel like sentiment around Nagi
is sort of closer to chub than David Montgomery last Year.
And so I often will be in the buddy.
I think, but it's sentiment around Deonte is a lot closer to
what a Rob was last year than Lantern.
No one ever wants to play Landry in anything.
Yeah, people people really like, Dante Johnson, but maybe it's
Matt Harvey been a Rob. Was, I think it key was like 17
or 18 percent last year so this is, yeah, this seems right?
Yeah. Maybe, maybe I'll, maybe I'll go
17 and 27 but 26. This is how the sausage gets
made, folks. We think about that.
Yeah, I mean I still want to play the on Deck.
All right then I got to high. Are we to San Francisco?
Yeah, let me get that up. This is where we get even
entree, Lance. Everybody know I'm still.
This is how I'm coping. I initially had some of the
underdog drafts at the very end. I would take both jibiji and
Lance and now I'm finally just taking jibiji like, I can't get
I can't get hurt like this again, Davis.
Well, you know, DraftKings has 20 round playoff estoppel, loved
it. It was like their back.
Developer was like, this would be too much work to change this
copy and pasted, they just kept it.
They had to of so ridiculous. San Francisco's fun though, for
this contest, you like Mitchell. Feed it to me, bro.
Beall aye. Mitchell is just stoned smash
here. Well so you and Mitchell is
interesting because you can play this is you know a shootout but
San Francisco. I think it's not going to be
like super popular to beat Dallas in the show yesterday.
Dallas D and people are like you know wow that's really contrary
and nobody maybe it's contrary because you brothers played as a
shootout but San Francisco only 8% chance to make the Super
Bowl. So my guess is that people are
going to be more interested in Debo and Kettle because you're
looking at like a to run the to game Run is, you know, most
realistic one game Run is most realistic but but, you know,
probably not three. That was my thinking and having
Mitchell down 11%, yeah, I'm trying to get in the mind of You
know, kid'll. He had those that explosion
game, I guess Eli Mitchell hasn't been at where his highs
were. I just for me, I feel like the
field will be more excited about Mitchell compared to kid'll, but
I don't know. But kittel fulfills the the
tight end stuff and people will play in some and flex, the
double tight end. Well, I don't know.
People love Debo. I wonder if Tebow will be a
little bit more and and gold a little bit less.
Yeah, the few need to fade somehow and I feel like, I don't
think you're going to get a ton of just straight fade.
That's why I have gold and the d a little bit higher than it.
Probably feels comfortable, but I don't know, maybe people just
don't fade San Francisco. Although, if you look at the,
that's what I was thinking. I don't, I don't think San
Francisco is a good faith, at all, because plenty of their
guys can get there in a loss and I think they're drawing Fairly
live to be Dallas. I have them like relatively
chances going to Super Bowl. I have them is like By far the
lowest fee. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
So I have a baked into a degree but it's like I don't want to
necessarily project them for, you know, only like 35% faded,
you know, just given that a lot of people, I assume would pick
them to lose this game. Sure, that makes yeah.
All right. Well you guys are thinking like
I don't know maybe if we did like kittel 18 I think it's like
this is one of the spots where the market Works irrational.
Like the market is not going to rationally.
Treat the 49ers like a team that's going to have to go on
the road for all these games or whatever.
Like they're just going to be like these guys squeal?
Yeah, yeah. All right.
I'm going to lower the total Fades on San Francisco.
I think is one way because I it's tough for me to think
Kittles below like 18, that feels like kind of the floor for
him. I mean it's George kettle.
And he had like, a gigantic game a couple weeks ago and and same
thing for Debo. Like, it's Devo, Devo was right
Debo is like one of the like him and cup or like the too big like
guys. You had to have to win money
this year. Yeah, yeah.
The one thing I kind of agree that maybe even SFA comes in a
little lower just because people are going to want pieces of this
game. I think it'll feel comfy for
people to kind of hedge. Like oh what if this is a
shootout and the I know Joe and all, that's a great point
because it is More likely want to win.
Its Davis is Raiders point where that line is closer than the
Raiders are getting played. But in this case, like people
are excited about San Fran's offense and San Fran can win.
So we're going to play both sides of it.
Yep. All right.
Well let's see it's like tough because then they're you know,
there's some other spots where we talked about the fates being
really high but this is why it's good San Francisco like San
Francisco should be probably 55 percent faded just based on you
know around 50 to 55 percent based on their eight percent
chance. Makes you both.
There it sounds like we're going to have them at like below 40%
for sure. So that pushes up but I mean
just think about making a team like are you going to fade 49ers
on any team you make? But Pat, they have the closest
line of the wild-card rounds of any Underdog.
So you're looking for sister chance to make the super make
The Chainsmokers Super Bowl. Yeah, the Super Bowl stuff is is
the way it is because they are to go on the road against much
but like, really good teams, but yeah, but the fade percentage is
more about. Can they just play a second
game, really? Right?
If they play two games are probably you don't want to
fight. Yeah.
You don't want to pay them. Yeah, that's a good point.
That's good point. all right, we are on to what Tampa Tampa's
really interesting team. So for next popping in the
projections, looks a couple of different projections.
He's coming as like the play of the tournament.
On ETR means that the highest-ranked guy overall, but
I think Gronk is an awesome play and then Evans is an awesome
place. So I actually wonder if maybe
Brady needs to come down to get some more drunken Evans in, but
it probably will, because I'm going to have my home's coming
up. But yeah, I didn't necessarily
think that I would have for I thought but I thought about
Gronk Being the chalk. But again, this running back
stuff and the projections, I think it's going to be for net.
I do agree that they're going, people are going to play it
through these big three. It's now kind of a condensed
offense and sentiment on Brady is pretty low after.
After this finish these past couple weeks.
Where do you guys think? Because Eric mentioning, you
know, didn't expect to see Lenny that high after missing that
many weeks and we'll get to that.
That will be interesting. I think.
But it's a real test of the projection.
Like how much are people leaning on projections?
Because I think basically any projections that you look at are
going to have Lenny very high. Yeah I think that as long as we
get, you know what, you know, Leonard fournette, full
practice, Bruce Arians says ago you know Lombardi Lenny, he
feels great. We just get we get one positive,
NBC Sports, Edge blur or on on Leonard fournette?
Availability. I think he's Tom.
Brady looks so low to me, really looks little ready.
I mean, maybe not low in terms of how he's projected, but just
low in terms of like He's Tampa, Tommy's for Rings, Tommy, this
guy at the skis going to, he's gonna get four games, he's gonna
win the Super Bowl and rightly so, recent last year for really
10% last ourselves. How many Super Bowls?
Yeah. Yeah, he's got six, right?
Yeah, it's definitely got more. I just think now losing both
those guys. Like if you would have just lost
one of a b or Godwin. No, I think that would have been
ready to ride with Brady and I think people are spooked and
they're like, why take the risk? I can just get Bel cowl any
Gronk tied in premium or Evans, Alpha wide receiver, and I knew
this guy who even played Cyril, Grayson in cash last year.
So we've moved on cash week is over.
Yeah, I was even seeing some, like, stuff on tampabay Twitter.
There were like, you know, least we got our Super Bowl last year
they like that? Yes.
Revising. The old days, we used to grind
the Tampa Bay pod. Yes, sir.
Yeah when you would when he would be listening to the Pewter
Report podcast for Road jealous, hate it at mannputer report
always here. I think that was a universally
held opinion in Tampa Bay. It was specially Peter Report
are more open-minded on Titans Titans to close it out.
Hear ye hear, ye hear, ye hear ye, let's make all of our money
on AJ Brown. So, this is another one where
Derrick Henry is. A leap of faith but I think I
could need to change this one. Can like in a major way as the
week goes on. Like this could flip because so
far. Projections aren't that bullish
on Henry? I think they they we need more
than just like one nice news report about Henry for this to
hold. So this could yeah, very easily
flip but I think but we're not going to get any information on
them because they're on a body. Yeah, I guess so.
That crew. Good.
That's a good point. Yeah, all right, well then
maybe, I, maybe I need to get this, like, cool here, but this
is, you know, Unstoppable Force meets an immovable object
because people are very excited to line up to play.
Derrick Henry, like again, Underdog, he's the number one.
Running back off the board in those drafts.
He's going in the beginning of the second round.
Now, like to me, it seems like people are just banking on the
fact that he's back and ready to rock.
I think. I think the fact that we're not
going to get any news this week actually works to keep his
ownership up. Like there's not going to no
one's going to think there's anything wrong, they're just
going to be assuming that next week.
It's all going to be good to go. Okay.
So I have a question, who is Tennessee most likely to play
Cincy? Yes, in see.
Yes, yeah, because 23 would be Casey bills and then 1/4 would
be Tennessee, bangle. How did they get?
If they get, they could get the Patriots.
If, if the page was when that it would be.
Be Bangles KC, which would be someone.
Someone talked me out of Tennessee is the fade.
I'm David kitchen. That was one of the first things
I said to these guys, this week is, like low-key a by team would
be a really interesting Faith. So anyway, guys are worth even
believe Tennessee deserves to get the by like even even
Tennessee. Titans are like, we should give
it to Kansas City. I think the thing with the if
this holds And AJ Brown is your is your Tennessee fade.
Oh, right? Yeah, he's just a smash.
Yeah, you're hoping you get Cincy and round two since he
beats them, but Brown goes off, but they can definitely lose in
a way where Henry's not particularly healthy doesn't
perform well obviously but then also, you know, Brown doesn't
necessarily have a big game, right?
They can't we know that. Yeah, they totally can.
Yeah, and maybe I'm light on the Fades, but again, the by teams
just weren't faded last year, maybe people feel differently
about Tennessee. But I don't know.
I mean, I think Henry's going to be like Henry's very popular and
then we're excited to play AJ Brown.
So who's who's actually, like, no, you're not actually gonna
fade. I'm not actually gonna fade
them, but they are. That's gonna I feel we could
talk about it, but we won't do it.
Well, maybe if New England wins, that's the one I'll say.
If you play New England to win a New England, Tennessee, round to
game that game, I would want to be overweight on Tennessee
faded, give New England was able to beat them.
Like, that's going to be a Slow shit.
Yeah, that's get that keeps sucking suck.
Yeah and I think that's something.
Did you guys just put a Titans Patriots game out into the
ether? It's Pockets.
I mean, it's not that far-fetched.
David literally, why would they ruin our play off that wagon?
You just talked about the Bangles losing.
So, oh, man. If we get Raiders and Patriots
advancing after round one, Oh my God.
You're gonna run the ball hundred times in that game.
Yeah. I I can't see much past the the
Henry Brown fade. Like I mean, what sickos,
clicking Julio Jones have you just Leone making a line up on
his own so he can just put leonean mr.
Leone specifically. I figured so we have any we
don't be as doing Leone's doing one in the 200 and he's like I
don't care. I'm playing Tyler boys and truly
jig reads it, huh? Other jobs the geriatric build.
Yeah, I mean, I guess the only other if we want to get into
galaxies brain territory here, like Davis mentioned with like
The Parlour door, the AJ Dylan play of like orbit and Derrick
Henry just isn't ready and it's down to Foreman at, you know
what I mean? It's like a foot injury.
Unlike a 250-pound man. Like, I can certainly see him
not being good to go. Yeah, I mean maybe maybe I
should just include Foreman just to I have Galley.
I've tossed form in in in, in the 10th round of the underdog
ones, okay? Yeah yeah and I don't know maybe
there maybe there is a little bit more Tennessee fade.
Yeah now do you think people if people do fate Tennessee do they
play? That is as Bullock or do they
played as a straight fade? There's a lot of kicker options.
I feel like they might just straight feet up if people if
people knew or we're projecting the Patriots ago, I think people
will be excited to play Tennessee as the defense but I
guess I guess people should be more excited, right?
Because if the Bills win in the Bangles like Tennessee at home
versus The Bangles, that's a nice defensive spot for
Tennessee there too. Yeah, that's true.
Yeah, maybe Tennessee defense will catch them.
I'm just trying to think out through people actually fading
them which is like this is higher relative to where they
were last. Like five percent is actually
pretty high for a team of the by but we'll also Pat I think it'd
be directly correlated if we somehow get more some
uncertainty around Henry or just something that isn't super
bullish. Like you just pull away from
Henry to fade because the boomers are going to be like I'm
either playing Derek Henry or I'm not touching this Godfrey.
Say yeah. That's right.
That's a boomer.
Do not love AJ Brown. The way we do Jimmy Derrick
Henry here. Give me death.
It is funny that the Boomers don't love AJ Brown because he's
a massive Target hog. Like he kind of fits.
You just would not understand, dude.
You don't get it. I don't get it.
That's what I'm saying. It's too flashy, dude.
He's too flashy with the Gucci headbands.
Huh? Yeah, because you're right Adams
isn't really, that flashy Adams has a whole thing about Justin.
Rouse don't do these drills don't post on Instagram, just
Routes. That's a boomer take.
I saw, I saw a great Boomer thing with Davante Adams.
The other day, the Packers beat writers were praising him
because he was on his phone during, you know, meet
availability or whatever. And people were like, oh, you
know, he's being an asshole and he was bringing up game film to
show them like a route Concepts to the Boomers were like, oh my
God. Davante Adams.
He is just a Football Genius. He's just and I'm just like, I
hate, I guess that's cool that he did that, but I hate all of
you so much. Yeah.
Yeah, to be clear. I like to watch a Adams and I
like that he runs a lot of routes and he got, I mean, talk
about a guy that like revive his career.
He was he almost had like the nikhil Harry washout.
It was, it was looking pretty bad.
There's Heaven. He became the best weapon
people. Forget, people forget that.
So, just remember that. The next time you're making fun
of my McCall. Hardman bags.
Could be the next Beyoncé, atoms or Lavista.
You watch yourself. Watch yourself out there,
honestly, actually very similar, please.
No, I can't do this right now. Let us he'll let us know.
Let's do the Pac-12 early, declares.
That's all I'm saying, Pete. Yeah, Adams was Fresno State but
still very similar. I will give you that.
Is it Christmas Day in the Pac-12?
Or that's Matt, he's Mac. I was going to say.
Imagine thinking I know which conference is players went to,
but Davis doesn't know either. I didn't know either is one of
those Midwest guys, that just doesn't even think the Pac-12
exist. See that hockey helmet over my
shoulder? Here is a legitimate power, five
conference buddy, it doesn't even exist.
Come on, oh God, here we go. Okay Boomer.
All right, Davis, you're a guest of honor.
We built a lineup with Daigle. I think we're going to keep this
tradition going at the end of each of our shows this week.
Who do you want? Well I said, Patrick Mahomes was
the best play in the entire tournament so I will take
Patrick Mahomes. I Mahomes grass.
You're up next. I'll take, Deonte, I was excited
about that. If we're talking, Owen taking my
homes, will go a shootout, round one.
That's a good idea. I'm on board.
Where are you, Deonte, he's running to Tariq there the
grass. Okay, there we go, Pat your
turn. I kind of just feel like, let's
go. Let's go Gronk.
This is a, this is a 100% overlap with the team.
I just built what we were going through this thus far, I want to
do after seeing that those percentages.
I want to. I want to play the Eli Mitchell,
still 100% overlap with the team.
I just built. This is good.
I think Pete's 100% in selecting you like Mitchell and in these
steel. Did I play it?
I do Pat. I've like, it's my DFS.
They were, I've already done the Men in Black erase, my brain,
for whatever we can. I remember, we had him in that
lineup. I'm pretty sure so, okay,
because it was against Dallas D. You're right.
Yeah.
All right. Whatever it is.
What it is. It can't change it now.
All right. Back to, I think, I just thought
it was interesting or not, I had to Gronk.
I will take T Higgins. I was going to take D Higgins,
when I took Rock. I thought about it.
I think she Higgins is really interesting.
I think he's going to, its kind of the squeeze that we talked
about in DFS like How does t? Higgins get steamed?
How how exactly will just take Chase?
They will. All right Gretch.
I feel like we're barreling towards the Derrick Henry deep.
Oh no, no, no, stop. Gratitude, I'm being taken to,
you're not probably playing for the Bengals to make a super Deep
Run. We already have Mahomes out of
the, the AFC, but that doesn't go through Tennessee.
How do we get away from it? I think he got Works in either
scenario win or a loss. You could get this bike game.
Yeah, it doesn't matter. Yeah, I mean he does but over
multiple games I think like mixing gets more interesting.
And yeah. I mean we don't have to play any
but they're like, where I feel like we're leaning towards
Titans, wonder, why would we not play AJ Brown?
Yeah, we can I didn't want to make your pick for you.
I'll but I was I will take Damn, I'm looking at the bracket like
what games do we have right now? We have Tampa.
I mean, I like talking that intersect obvious picks at this
point already. I'll just take up again.
I'm just going to do this at every show a lot.
I love it. This is no one.
And no one can fault you. You are completely immune from
criticism. Pat.
I'm very excited for this pick Darren Waller.
Woohoo! It's gonna make some tough
Fades. We got some tough Fades coming
here, but yeah, stealer in a Raider.
But uh, I mean you just want one up.
You just push this further towards Derrick Henry in my
mind. Oh I think I pushed us to it to
Tennessee. Faith is what I was hoping but
yeah. And I'm gonna I'm gonna just go
ahead and toss digs in. Well I mean if either the
Bangles or the Raiders win and then beat the Titans, you don't
think mixing and Jacobs make a lot of sense there.
I was going to take Singletary. Now, I can't, there's only one
guy that we can take. No, it's fat Zeke.
Wait, so who are Fades? We gotta figure out pit sweet
pad. You just like buttons.
Know we have revealed. I mean, this team is, this is
already pretty over-leveraged. You can eat that.
I'm gonna take out so who's our placekicker and defense?
Who cares? We need Prater Prater Prater for
why Davis, is there maybe a oldest?
Yes yes, no, don't do it. That was one of the worst
experiences because I thought that I had this like treasured
memory and no one remember that. It's so it's so funny to me and
then I re-watch it and of course it was not like it was funny but
it wasn't as funny as I remember it.
Like I remember this very drawn out Jesus with this weird
southern accent and that's not how it played out.
Anyways, it doesn't matter. The real reason to take Prater
is that clip is the first time probably pretty soon but the
real reason is that Cliff is just begging to kick five field
goals against the Los Angeles, Rams, in a playoff game he can't
wait to do it, all right? And which defense did we say?
Titans Patriots. I feel like the Patriots, I feel
like we do it. I feel like we actually do the
Tennessee fade. We were just talking about.
Yeah, I like that. Okay, yep.
All right. There it is.
Digs Buffalo's. Had had the throat.
Can we see it for a second? Pull back up.
This is a fun one. The Tennessee fate.
I feel like this is pretty off the board.
Let me know who I need to send five dollars of etherium to, so,
that's something I can get my share when we get paid out of
here. Davis, this one.
So this is on that. This one's on ether.
What we doing 35, then? Yes, I registered five.
Those are huge crashing through. Yes Davis you could send me a
penguin Fight Club in Ft for this one.
I don't have any left. They're all they're all for sale
on a looks rare.com now to earn my turn my looks token.
That's right. Um well thank you Davis for
joining us today. Like we said, we are going to be
here every day this week doing FPC.
Playoff Challenge content will be back the next three nights.
I'm going to be at our usual time of 9:15 p.m.
Eastern tomorrow. We have the Boomer opto with a
saint and Blair Thursday. We have Sean Siegel joining us
to talk some Galaxy brain angles and then Friday, of course,
capping it off with Leone in dink are drunk build.
Trying to recapture the magic from last year.
Also Pat will be sharing his ownership, projection
spreadsheet in the ship chasing Discord, you can get access to
that by becoming a YouTube member and then sync it with
your Discord account and it will unlock that channel anything.
Else I am forgetting here, fellas.
Nope. No.
Alright. Well, that is it for Davis for
Gretsch for Pat. I'm Pete will see you guys
tomorrow.