Hello, everyone, and welcome to week. 13 staff chasing.
It is good to be back after a week awful.
Everyone had a great Thanksgiving, great
Thanksgiving, slate gray, and slate, and are headed to the
playoffs. Which are either right around
the corner or are starting this week and hope to get you all
ready for what is to come over the next several weeks.
If you are joining for the first time, welcome, my name is Sam.
Hopin. I am your host for the show.
If you get if you haven't watched before this is where
I'll be going through some of the key stats that I think are
most important for laying a foundation.
Inform my research, trying to understand what happened this
past week. What's happened?
The past couple weeks and help you make better - ooh football
at decisions. We've got Crosby in the room
here with me today, going to celebrate another week in the
NFL. But before we get into the
details, want to talk through the stats, that I'll be using on
the show today to give credit where credit is due from PFF.
I have The routes data. That's pretty much any stat that
I give with a rock specific metric, that's targets per
outrun, way to try to sprout, run, things like that.
Also use their expected fantasy points, which is a model built
that wait Opportunity by the line of scrimmage and I use this
primarily as a measure of usage, for players trying to
understand, which players are getting the most valuable
opportunities in there. Offense from the NFL
play-by-play data and I fell fast are I get area arms, which
is the distance the ball travels in the air before.
It's actually a receiver, whether it's catch or not, have
waited opportunity rating Whopper, which is a metric that
Josh firms might have created which weights area of share and
Target share. Also have racer, which is
receiver are conversion ratio, that's receiving yards, / are
yards. And then Pacer on the flip side
is passing air, conversion ratio, that's passing passing
Area, Arts /, actual yards, and both of those are intended to
show efficiency for the receiver.
And on the flip side, the quarterback Also have
quarterback adjusted yards per attempt, which is yards per
attempt, but wait, sit with interceptions and touchdowns.
Have passed right over expectation which is from the
NFL faster model. It determines the likelihood
that a play is a drop back. And then I take the right in the
games, the difference between their actual pass rate in their
expected pass rate and that can see the password over
expectation. Similarly have cpoe, which is
completion, percentage over expectation, that shows a
quarterback's completion. Image / expectation, his actual
completion percentage minus the expected completion percentage.
And then a couple of stats popularized by mr.
Ben Gretsch, waited targets for outrun.
This weights are yards and Route run with a scalar included
primarily used as four wide receivers to get an
understanding of their sort of archetype and the role that
they're playing. And then also have high value
touches, which is a running back specific metric, that is any
reception. And then carries inside the
10-yard line, I'll also refer to Green zone touches, which is any
touch catch, which is, could be a catch or a rushed inside, the
opponent's 10-yard line. So I'm going to be going through
these stats position by position.
So I can compare against the other players in the position,
help you make your starts a waiver and trade decisions in
your league. And then I'll go more in depth
through a couple of Team. Specific situations, a reminder
to subscribe to the YouTube channel.
Become a member for just $5 to get live access to the show.
Access to the Discord and a bunch of other benefits.
And one final shout out to at change College on Twitter who
has continuing, has been continuing to add the timestamps
on YouTube so you can skip to Different.
Team or position the conversations that you might
want to listen to you, that are more interesting to you than the
others. So I'm going to be showing some
charts here. I'm going to pull up the
quarterback one right now. So hopefully you're watching on
the YouTube to get the visualization, it's enhanced
experience. And again, starting off with
quarterbacks here on the x-axis of this chart have adjusted
yards per attempt on the y-axis, have touchdown raped and then as
the size of the bubble is a Quarterbacks rushing yards per
game and primarily looking for efficiency here because that's
typically what drives fantasy football, performance for the
quarterback position at volume is not necessarily something
that is going to help the quarterback position and one
player that hasn't had a ton of volume but it's had extreme
efficiency. Over the last six weeks is Mac
Jones. Who has led the patriots to six
straight wins. They now lead the AFC East, they
have a big money night football match up this upcoming week
against the bills in week. 13 will be one of the tougher
defense has that he is played. But since the start of their
winning streak, which started in week 7, this is how He's ranks,
they have a negative four percent passing over
expectation. So again not passing quite as
much as expected. But he has the fifth highest
completion percentage over expectation at 3.4 percent. and
he also has the highest GPA per place that's expected Point data
per play among quarterbacks, which is phenomenal especially
for a rookie He's throwing nine touchdowns to just two
interceptions, has a 5.3 percent touchdown rate 8.6 adjusted
yards per attempt. He does have an 11:00 1.11
Pacer. So it's getting a bit of help
from his receivers in their yards after the catch and is
throwing just under 230 passing yards Per game.
You can see here that he's he's on this chart.
He's right next to Aaron Rodgers and other greats like Andy
Dalton, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo like it's funny to see
those names. Up there, given some of the
performances that they've had recently, he is only averaging
15 fantasy points per game. So I don't think that he's quite
a qb1 or someone that you would want to consider starting. in a
normal League going forward, but someone to certainly keep on
your radar if in the future, you know, in years to come.
They get some more offensive Firepower and offensive weapons
than he could be set up to be a regular Phantasy Star.
Speaking of hot AFC teams and I'm flipping the chart here
because this next quarterback is the only other quarterback in
the discussed today. But to otago by Lola has led the
Dolphins to four straight wins, at least three of those four.
He Was out the first game of that win streak and then came in
and relief of a Jacoby Brissette.
In the game against the Ravens so he's only actually started
the last two games but again is played in the last three has
sort of two and a half games under his belt.
And since week 10 those two and a half games, he has eleven
eleven point seven percent completion percentage over
expectation, which is just absurd, which is second only to
noted, Gunslinger Taylor heinicke, he does have 0.2 NEPA
a play, which is phenomenal. He does have a very shallow
shallow, 5.2 yard, average, depth of Target and we'll be
talking about jail and waddle for a second later on, in the
show and how much that benefits him.
But in his two starts overall, he is averaging, 250 passing
yards, per game has a 4.7 percent, touch on rape, three
touchdowns and just one interception.
Again, is also a verb Jin 15 points per game because of the
shallow average depth of Target. He is a 1.73.
Pacer. So, his receivers are on
average, almost doubling The yardage of the area art.
So, you know, if you think about that if he throws it five guards
Past the line of scrimmage or towelettes these 10 yards.
If he if they're if he throws a 10 yards past the line of
scrimmage, they're on average running an extra seven yards or
gaining an extra seven yards after the catch for him.
So that's a lot of what his production is coming for from it
does have an 84 percent completion percentage.
Again that's due in part to the the high cpoe and has an eight
point one adjusted. It's per attempt.
I forgot to check now that I'm thinking about it, what the how
the Dolphins have fared in password over expectation, the
past, several weeks. I know for most of the season,
they have had a positive password over expectation, and
that has certainly benefited to and the receivers you can see
two of this past week on the chart.
Again, sort of right where we want to see him and He's been
doing this without DeVante Parker and will hold her.
I don't even know if Will Fuller is going to come back this
season. But he's been able to be good
enough with just Parker and and Mikus it to me just water and
like a sticky. So really good from him.
I'm not going to touch on them. This show, maybe I will next
week, but you see Russell Wilson here from the game last night on
Monday Night Football. He had about a six and a half
percent touchdown rate, 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt in
that game and It was that offensive just so tough to
watch. So I Russell Wilson is not
someone. I'm really trusting in a liner
right now either again despite what we've seen from him
historically because it's it is painful to watch that offense.
Okay, quick talk about the quarterback.
So let's get into the running backs here on the x-axis have
rushing expected fantasy points. On the y-axis have receiving
expected fantasy points, and then as the size of the bubble
fantasy points over expectations, that's F po as all
refer to it and these are all per game numbers here, looking
at the last five games on the chart and The first team that
I'm going to talk through our the Eagles running back sequels
and their backfield a update Mi Sanders did, leave the game
early this past week there was a report yesterday saying that
Nick seriani said Jordan, Howard and Mi standards are heading in
the right direction with their injuries, they'll know more on
Wednesday. So Unknown who will be able to
start in the upcoming game. I believe they played the Jets
this week, but in the past, two games with Mi Sanders, back
after he left, excuse me after he was out for a couple of
weeks, here's how things. Sort of played out him in
Boston, Scott have essentially split the time, it's just
between been between them. Jordan Howard miss last week,
can he gain well, missed the week before?
So neither of them played more than 20% of snaps in their game.
So, I think they're sort of the third, tier of running back, if
you will. And Boston, Scott has six total
High. You touches over the past two
weeks has at least two high-value touches in each of
the last six games. So he's he's really been again.
One of the primary weapons in that offense has at least he has
two rings on touches the past two weeks has just one rushing
touchdown but I think headache receiving touchdown as well if I
remember correctly. but again, so Boston Scott has Commander
39% of the touches over the last two week week, smile Sanders
only has 41 percent and again, this is tricky because you left
the game but it's it's not like he returned to a massive
workload Sanders. Snap share was at 46% in week,
eleven thirty three percent last week Sanders did has averaged
nine point. Three expected points for games
over the last two weeks, but But Boston Scott is getting a lot of
the passing work. He has 43 percent rocks for drop
a crate and is averaging 5.7 receiving expected points per
game over the last two. So that's That's good for a
running back. That's about what we want to see
for a workload. As far as famous expected points
again. Scott had 21 expect a fantasy
points this past week in, he's actually averaging - 4 F po per
game. The last two weeks.
So he certainly has Some room to grow and it's worth noting.
You know, obviously Sailors has been banged up a little bit this
season. So he's volume numbers are a
little weird, but he has yet to score a single touchdown this
season. Now, he's he's recorded five
games with double digits, expected fantasy points, but is
not has not been able to convert on those and turn into a massive
week. From a fantasy football
perspective. So assuming all four of these
guys are healthy, sander Scott, Howard date.
Well I think I would expect it. Be a 1A 1B situation with
Sanders and Scott and Howard and game.
Well will be Worked in ever so slightly slightly enough.
That it'll be painful for for Scott and Sanders managers
because again this is it looks like it could be a four headed
back field which is not what we want in any sort of fantasy
football. Situation.
The last thing I'll mention Scott and Sanders are both
averaging about 13 opportunities with game in the last two weeks
which is solid. But again, they're not going to
be able to have the ceilings that you would expect or hope
without getting, you know, maybe 15 or 16 plus opportunities per
game in that backfield. Boston, Scott did have last last
thing. I'll mention And Scott had a 51%
snap chair in week 12 and now it was the highest that it's been
over the last four weeks. So, sort of trending up for
Scott. I think if, if Sanders is out if
Sanders an hour are both out that Boston, Scott is for sure a
great play this upcoming week. But if not, then I'm probably
avoiding that backfield where possible Sorry, let me take a
lot of drinking breaks today, a little bit of a scratchy throat
but anyway, I'll move on to the Bills.
Running backs, they played on Thanksgiving the evening,
Thanksgiving game and for that game, Zack Moss was a healthy
scratch and Devin Singletary. Got the start met Rita was
Worked in as well. I thought I had pulled up the
snap share so you know, but I believe Singletary.
Played about 70% of the snaps. While Brito was at 30% in the
game on Thanksgiving met Rita did have a receiving touchdown
at the end of the game both Breda and Singletary, did have
double-digit opportunities they had Breda had 11.
Singletary, had 16, Breda had three high-value touches to just
two for Devin Singletary but Devon Singletary did run a route
on 64-66 to make 65% of routes in that game, which was his
second highest rate of the season and highest since week
one when he was at 67%, And if this is a two-headed backfield,
then I think either one of the guys is playable but if all
three of them are involved, then it's not very good when all
three were active in weeks 10 and 11.
No back had more than eight opportunities in either game
Breda had six and seven, Singletary at eight and seven
mosfet seven and four. So It was very, very split up
and you just couldn't rely on any of that when it was
Singletary and Moss. Or a good stretch of the season.
They were both regularly getting double digit opportunities.
And in that offense, even though they do pass a ton, there's a
lot of pressure on Equity that they can have.
Excuse me, that Makes them valuable and worth starting.
But Zack Morris is sort of been treated a little bit differently
since their week 7 by in the last five games.
In the last four games for him, his touch percentage back to
excuse me percent of backfield touches.
He's at 38%. He was at 50% in the five weeks
before the. By now Singletary has stayed
about the same. Going from 52% before the bike
to 50% after the by but Matt Rita has gone from 22 percent to
37 percent after the box. So, Singletary is it's like the
one guy who they seem to consistently Trust I don't think
they're ever going to give him a Workhorse battle by role because
Breda and Moss are both competent backs.
But this is the second time, this season that Moss was a
healthy scratch. And it could become a weekly
thing. I think there were reports of
leading up to the Thanksgiving game, talking about how the
bills wanted to get Freedom more involved, because he is an
explosive back. And I agree with that for you
has been one of my favorite guys to watch in fantasy football.
The last couple years because of his explosiveness but the one
thing I wouldn't I would be more keen to hold onto Singletary and
Trust his volume. Because again, he's getting the
higher snap share and read it. Actually is averaging 6.3
fantasy points over expectation for game in the last three
games. So, could potentially be due for
some aggression, especially with the lower snap share, that he's
getting I think the other thing the last thing that's worth
noting. Excuse me here.
What the bills is? Again, Singletary is averaging
three high-value touches per game.
In the last five. Matt Breda 2.7.
Zack Moss is averaging three high-value touches in his four
games. But previous to the by again,
met Bree. I had only played in one game
but he didn't have any high value touches so he's taking
some of those away obviously from the other two backs.
So this I think we hope that again, this one means a
two-headed backfield. What?
Maybe we don't want to be a two-headed.
Backfield is in Washington and unfortunately, JD mckissack went
down. I think he hit his head against
another player's, me and the game last night, but his agent
tweeted today that he's all good.
So that's good to hear for his health.
But Antonio Gibson in the game last night, set career, highs in
snaps at 67 percent. At 29 carries seven catches and
36 touches again. All of those Our career high
marks for Antonio Gibson, in a game, over the last three games
sense. The Washington football teams by
he is averaging 27, 27 opportunities per game.
Nearly seven 6.7 high-value touches per game.
And here's the big thing. He's averaging.
Remember though 3.7 green zone touches per game.
Before last night, it had been six games that JD mckissack had
gone without a green zone touch. And I think, I mean, obviously
Gibson managers were tilting last night because the couple
then he got that mckissick got last night.
He ran in for a touchdown. And it was not fun to see. but,
Gibson is getting these Red Zone opportunities which is huge and
that's just as valuable if not more valuable than the receiving
work and his receiving work, stayed about the same.
He's at a 31% route rate. The last three weeks has three
is averaging three targets per game.
Three catches per game. So that that really hasn't
changed much is percent of receptions.
Out of the backfield has gone up to 47% from 33% before the bye.
What is total? Touch percent has gone up to 68
percent up from 60 percent. Before the but I've so many is
getting he's everything 0.28 targets per outrun, which is
phenomenal. I mean, the guys averaging 21
Point 3 expected points per game over the last three and has
negative 4X fantasy points over excitation.
So he could be doing even more. I'm very bullish on Antonio,
Gibson for the rest of the season.
Antonio Gibson was second on the week. among running backs with
11 high-value touches again, you're obviously bummed that
Gibson didn't get into the end zone last night.
Or I guess that mckissick score stole.
Some opportunities there. But again, things have been
trending down for Gibson. They're printing all the way
back up right now. Another backfield that's kind of
trending down, maybe turning off the Titans backfield wanted to
revisit this. I think I talked about this
before. I took my personal by And Deonte
foreman and Adrian Peterson were sort of battling for that.
Number one role, Now it's down to it looks like dr.
Hilyard and detox a foreman. Some someone named Tori.
Carter. Saw 32% of snaps, I'm not
totally concerned about him, but Hilliard in The last two games
has run a route on over 55% of drop drop acts in each of the
last two games. Has had 20 expected fantasy
points in week. 11 at 10. Expect the fantasy points in
week. 12 had a very long run. Has averaged five high-value
touches the last two games. And has at least 14
opportunities in the last two game.
So he's come on very strong has above a 50% snap.
Share the last two weeks and is just sort of fitting in I think
really, really well. Jeremy McNichols is missed the
last two, games are a tree and Peterson didn't play this last
week either. So I think definitely art is the
guy. Right now, he's commanded 69% of
the receiving work in the two games that he's played.
Has a 17 percent Target share, which is really good for a
running back in that passing attack.
Does not have many other options, so if the Titans do
lean on him as the pass-catching back.
If I don't actually don't know what nickels Status is right now
and if he's going to be back any time soon but Hilliard could be
in for a big roll. Down the stretch here, if they
think they found something with him, Deonte Foreman did have
five high-value touches this past week.
Along with 20 total opportunities so it's probably
still between those two guys played a 49% snap share which
was His Highest of the season. And had has had three claims on
touches the last two weeks compared to just two for
Hillier. So really just Hilliard.
Informant are the only two that I want to hold onto right now.
And have investments in for the Titans backfield.
A couple of. Final nuggets and I'm pulling
these from couple quick Shadows to John Daigle.
Adam Levitan been Gretchen getting the getting some of
these Stacks from them. As well.
But Elijah Mitchell had a broken finger.
And then ended up playing this past week and played 70% of
snaps at a 91 percent share of the backfield touches in his
first game, after breaking the finger, and those were both
season High marks been handled. He has not said me, Mitchell has
not handled less than 72 percent of the 49ers backfield touches
in the 74 games of these played this year.
So just absolutely dominant the one concern I've had About the
rent, excuse me? The 49ers backfield is that they
do not have. a lot of high-value touches go the way of the back,
the running backs. But I believe Mitchell had six
receptions in this game. Which is if I mean if he's
getting the receiving work, then he is for sure.
A League winner. Speaking of League winner,
League, winning Lenny, Leonard fournette, LED all running backs
with 13 high-value touches in week. 12.
This is the second game of the season with double-digit
high-value touches. He now has at least eight
high-value touches in each of his last three games and is his
6.7. How do I transfer?
I am average currently leads the league, so Sorry to pack any
other Ronald Jones truthers but Leonard fournette is the Bell.
Cow in this backfield green, Hans came back.
He might have activated the injury that he had to his calf
but he played 23 snaps. Had seven carries and ran 13
routes in the game. Nick Chubb was still the lead
guy with 30 snaps and it carries and Any routes during his
Johnson only had six snaps. What did not I believe only got
one opportunity. So job, I think, is the steady
guy here? We'll see what happens with
Kareem hunt. Believe they're entering their
by this week, so hopefully chance for them to get fully
healthy. Jamaal Williams.
Unfortunately, younger Swift may be injured Williams.
Played 63 percent of snacks ran around 54% of drop backs had
five high-value touches got six rings on touches in his first
four games. So should be in a very hard
fight touch-friendly, start this upcoming week and Again, the
lions are one of those teams that have, if not the most one
of the most high value touches per game for the running backs,
SE Kwang Berkeley back to a Workhorse role, he played 87% of
snaps, run around and ran a route on 73% of drop backs.
And then the final thing, as far as the Dolphins backfield miles
Gaston was in on 50 percent of The snaps Lindsay was at, he
played 15 snaps off my tit 13 and layered at 12.
So the other thing that that Daigle notes Here is Gaskins.
50% share of running back touches.
What was his lowest share without Malcolm Brown?
But nine of Lindsay's 12 carries.
Occurred once the Dolphins took a 9:33 lead. - gasping before
this game was the king of not. Taking advantage of his
opportunities and ends ended up finding the end zone twice in
the one week. I didn't play him in DFS so that
was a lot of fun to watch, but I think Gaskin is still clearly
the lead guy here. Philip Lindsay potentially could
be taking over for off men and lured them.
Okay, moving on to the wide receiver position on the x-axis
here have waited targets per outrun on the y-axis have are
yards market, share, and then the size of a player's bubble is
fantasy points over expectation. The first group here, talking
about the 49ers, the last four weeks they still have a - ten
percent pass rate over expectation which is one of the
concerns that I pointed out a couple weeks ago with the, both
Samuel. I think saying he was a sell
High. Obviously, I hope he didn't sell
High because he's been amazing. Might miss a week or two now,
but he has been efficient as efficient as anyone in the last
four weeks. Since Kittles been back.
He's averaging. Being almost 20 PR points.
As a 19 percent Target share running around an 88% of
drawbacks. But again, he's averaging 8.3
fantasy points over expectation. Has one of the larger bubbles on
the chart here. So one that's starting to come
back though. Mr. Brandon are you car?
Cover boy for the show today? Over the last four weeks.
Averaging three targets per game has to receiving touchdowns as a
24 percent Target, share 31% area of share 0.55, Whopper
0.56, waited targets per outrun which is really good.
And it's averaging 11.5 expected points, which is actually the
most Among 49ers receivers. He's also running a route on 94%
of Dropbox has not been below 90% in each of the last four
weeks. So, it seems like he's out of
the Kyle. Shanahan doghouse if you will,
has had a way to Target spur outrun of over 0.6 in each of
the last two weeks. Are you his averaging?
Excuse me. He's had the most area ards in
the last two games. On the team has had over 50 in
the last two games. So really is coming on late,
which is really, really good if you have been waiting for him, I
mentioned that Debo Samuel, may miss some time and there was a
report it sounds like Juwan James will be the guy to step in
for Samuel in his absence. But I I would rather just Stick
with. I you can kid'll at this point.
Jennings has won a wrap on 62% of drop backs.
His last three games. Has a 9% cutter, share 11
percent error share. He does have a pair of receiving
touchdowns as well, but I think this offense just gets a little
bit more concentrated around its stars in IU and kittel.
Obviously the one thing I haven't mentioned with Samuel is
that they started using him as a running back.
He's gotten several carries in each of the last couple games
and Brendan are you actually had a carry of his own last week.
So it'll be interesting to see if Are you does get a few more
carries. With Samuel out or if they just
hand it to Elijah Mitchell. Another the other group, another
group of receivers that we're talking about here is the
Broncos wide receivers. And if you saw my tweet earlier,
you know, that court and Simon is just not doing well right
now. He was averaging 100 in 35 are
yards per game. In the first seven games has
just 137 are yards total in the last four weeks.
Combined, this obviously coincides with Jerry Judy
returning Courtland Sutton over the last four weeks, only
averaging, three targets per game, and 11 percent Target,
share, a twenty percent area of share.
And his a.is at eleven point four yards, which is against
still solid and no other receiver is averaging more than
50 Area are birds per game so it's not like they're slinging a
deep to others. The volume just is not there and
he's wanting a route on 90% of drop racks still, Which is
higher than Judy has been at 80% And just in line with their now,
wide receiver to Tim Patrick, who's averaging just over four
targets per game, has a 16 percent Target share, but it is
not pretty for Courtland. Sutton doesn't have more than
five Targets in a game since week 6.
And is just struggling to get anything going at all.
Judy, on the other hand is played solid.
He hasn't he doesn't have a receiving touched on yet.
So the fantasy production hasn't been hasn't quite been there.
He's ever 9pp are points per game since returning.
But has a lower 7.8 yard average depth of Target, but thanks to
his 23 percent Target share again.
He's again, I like I said, he's a kind of six targets per game,
is that between about 10 and a half expected points per game.
So, has some as -1.5 fantasy points over expectation?
So, I think could be in for a bounce-back.
Eventually could be popping in some Area Arts, Bi-Lo models if
you will. But I mean, Sutton's getting
about a third of the work that he was getting before.
Judy return from injury. So it's you cannot trust in my
opinion. Cannot trust Portland Summit in
the lineup until we see something change.
And we're going to need to see a lot change for that to happen.
It's confusing. Because again, they gave Tim
Patrick, a big extension. They've given Sutton a big
extension as well. So on, I'm sure what's going on
There. The Browns wide receivers.
They are missing one of their or what used to be one of their
primary past, cultures and Odell Beckham jr.
He's now been away from the team for four weeks now.
Including the game that you missed.
And for a while I was saying that there's nobody on this team
that Not necessarily isn't worth rostering but certainly is not
worth starting. And I'm changing my tune here
with Jarvis Landry. Who ran a route on 98% of
drawbacks this past week, which is, which was a season-high also
had 10 Targets in the game, which was tied for the most but
no other receiver. Or player in the game against
the. Ravens on Sunday night had more
than five Targets in the game. So he has pretty much got that
wide receiver. One roll locked down over the
last four games without Beckham has a 25 percent Target share,
averaging, seven targets per game.
It's actually averaging 62 and a half Area Arts per game and has
an eight point nine. Average depth at Target, which
is, I think a little higher than his typical.
Typical average depth of Target is a virgin - to fantasy points
over expectations. So could be again, an in line
for a bigger week. One of these one of these days
has at least five Targets in each of the last six games as
well and has over 100 our area ards in back-to-back squeaks.
So he's certainly getting a lot of work.
Probably the one guy that Baker Mayfield trust right now behind
him. It's really only Donovan,
people's Jones, who has shown some explosive a tea.
That's a word, get some deep shots as at least 60 are yards
in each of his last five games played has a 15 percent Target
share, only averaging, four targets per gate, 4.3 targets
per game since Beckham left. What is leaving the team with 71
Area Arts per game. Over the last four weeks and is
one, is the only other player running a route on more than 75.
This is me over 60% of dropped paps among wide receiver.
So would be the biggest beneficiary if Other players
were to submit or if Landry to be what were too.
To go down. A couple other.
Final notes at the wide receiver position have Jill while he had
in week 12, a 0.95 Whopper and again to a had an absurdly low
3.7 average depth of targets and he likes to go underneath which
fits Jalen Waddles routes. And you can see him here on the
chart just had a phenomenal day real Breakout game for the
rookie. Another rookie that had a really
good game was a life of more. He ran around on 96% of
drawbacks, had the 33 percent Target, share 0.85, 85 Whopper I
think people were concerned about how he'd perform with Zach
Wilson back under Center, but a, an encouraging sign there.
And finally DeSean Jackson had a season High 50%.
Excuse me 56% routes one rate with a very strong 0.76.
Weighted targets per out run for the season.
So looks like he could potentially be taking over that
deep threat role for the Las Vegas.
Raiders. Okay, you got the tight end
position here and have two players.
That I want to talk through the first of which is Rob
Gronkowski, who has been back the last two weeks and has been
playing phenomenal, is back to its height and one actually
probably a top-five tighten at this point but Dwayne McFarland
noted that Croc is being targeted more than any other
tight end in the NFL on a per hour basis at 26% leads by two
percent over. Darren Waller.
All over his last two games is averaging, he has eight.
And ten targets is averaging nearly 100 receiving yards per
game has a 22 percent. Target share is still only
running around and 66% of Dropbox but that's that's enough
again. What?
He's on the field, they are targeting him.
Has a 29% area of share, which actually leads delete student
thinks the team over the last two weeks.
And is averaging 14, expected points per game, has gotten 16.2
PR points per game. So, again, his got them looking
at his 81% routes per drop back rate in week 12 was a season
high for him, so they have not been shy about But he came back
into a top-tier roll head. Like I said, ten Targets in the
game against India was kind of a walkie game because no other
player have more than five Targets in that game and would
expect that Evans and Godwin, and Antonio Brown when he
returns to take up some of those opportunities, but the fact that
he's scoring so many could be our points without having caught
a touchdown is Just absurd and really, really good.
Someone you can certainly trust in your lineups, moving forward.
So what I'm a little bit more cautious on is Evan engram.
In the last three games, has a 17 percent Target, share and is
running a route on 94% of drop. Back to put is averaging fewer
than five targets per game. Did have his second highest
number of Targets in the game at six percent, extra Mia, six
Targets, this past week did run a route on 94% of Dropbox in is
actually been above 90 percent in each.
Of the last three games. So so that's solid.
I just I wonder what this offense really is just like
Darius. Tony was out this past week and
Sterling. Shepherd hasn't been healthy
either. So unsure how those guys will
impact him when they return. But I think is a probably a
low-end tighten, one high-end tight end to given that again.
Over the last two weeks, he's not that I'm seeing it.
The only player running around more than 85% of drop backs
among receivers and tight ends for the Giants.
Last note on. A tight end.
Logan Thomas was back last night.
There were reports early on before the game saying that they
were going to ease him in and they did healing render out on
20 reps with me, 28 of the 41 heinicke.
Dropbox, last night, he was like right around 100 percent of
routes run. Before he got injured but good
to see him back especially with Ricky Seals Jones out.
Okay, wrapping up the show here voice is getting a little sore.
So might Might have to cut these all little short.
And the first thing, the first team here, I'm going to talk
through Is Carolina Panthers. I'm guessing cam is going to
start again. He got pulled late in the game
against the Dolphins this past week.
He started and only completed five passes on 21 attempts at 24
percent completion rate, which is just abysmal.
And this is a week after he sort of looked like his old self, had
a 78 percent completion. Percentage the week before 8.5%,
cpoe at thrown two touchdowns 180 yards, fixing 189 yards,
Rusted, 10 times for 46 yards, like you looked like his old
self and then he throws two, picks doesn't even hit 100 yards
passing. Boyd carries the ball three
times, 45 yards and had a negative 42 percent cpoe, which
is just terrible. I don't know if I trust him as a
starter, maybe maybe in DFS especially now that
unfortunately Christian McCaffrey is out for the year,
the Panthers are entering their bye week, but I'm here to help
the code which running back will be the most valuable rest of
season on. The Panthers in my mind is so
hypothesis is that it's a mere Abdullah because he had been
getting some work while Christian McCaffrey was even
back up to a led. The team with a 49%, snap share
this past week. Obviously, McCaffrey left the
game. He did play, but he left the
game early and Abdullah had gotten 13 opportunities in week
10, you only had one in week 11 but then had eight in week, 12
had gotten 13 opportunities in the last game before McCaffrey
returned and again Hubbard to a hover.
The other guys consider hasn't been above a 21% snap share in
each of the last four weeks while Abdullah has been above
20%. Point three of the last four.
So Hubbard again, while McCaffrey was out to start, was
getting double digit opportunities had at least 15
opportunities in each of The last.
Submit, excuse me, agon double-digit, 15 opportunities
in the five deals down McCaffrey.
So there is a Workhorse role to be had.
It will be interesting interesting to see if they do.
Split it a little bit more. Now, without McCaffrey for the
full season. As far as.
Be receivers in the last three weeks without Sam Donald again,
the good thing is that the only two relevant, ones are Robbie
Anderson and DJ more, they're both running around and over 90%
of drawbacks. No.
Other receiver is running a route on more than 50% of drop
backs. So they're the only to consider
DJ more in this week. 12 game at 151 are yards, which was his
first time. Over 100 Area Arts since week 7
and in fact had 10 targets which was also the first time since
week seven that he's had 10 targets.
So I think things are still looking good.
For PK more obviously has not had the touchdown production
hasn't been super efficient from a fantasy perspective, but as
over 14, people are points in the last two weeks after three
straight games below 10, PPR points.
So Really hope that I'm continuing to plug DJ more into
lineups. Robbie Anderson, maybe save that
fur, Leone and friends. But I don't know Anderson over
the last three games. Averaging, five point three
targets per game has an 18 percent Target share.
So without CMC that could open opportunities for Anderson.
To make some more noise. The other team that I'm going to
talk about here is the Chicago Bears, Justin fields, did not
start any adult and started on Thanksgiving.
I'm not sure who's going to start in the game, this upcoming
Sunday. But either way, I'm, I'm still
leaning away from him. The one thing that I think would
entice me with Justin Fields, is that in weeks 5 through 9, the
five games. before he got injured he was averaging, 46
rushing yards per game, so that's that's really good.
He was averaging yet a 10.5 yard average depth of Target in those
games as well and was actually sort of slinging.
He was only one or two key bees Sydney.
What the average depth of Target over 10 yards in that span.
But Chicago still leaning very run-heavy with a negative five
percent pass rate over expectation and that has greatly
benefited, David Montgomery. Who has come back to Sydney,
who's come back to a Workhorse role has been above eighty, four
percent of snaps the last three weeks that he's been back is
averaging. Sidney 17 opportunities for game
has 85 percent of the Bears backfield touches and is running
around on 64% of Dropbox, which is incredible.
So David Montgomery, plug back into lineups.
Hopefully can get some easy matchups to take care of down
the stretch. Looking at the past catchers
finally Darla Mooney looks like a wide receiver one which he is
so fun to watch watching him on Thanksgiving, just looks
phenomenal. Sort of reminded me a little bit
of Michael Gallup but I hope gets a more expanded role then
that over the last four weeks, he's averaging 130 Area.
Arts per game is averaging nine point, eight targets per game.
As to receiving touchdowns at 31 percent Target share, 0.69
Whoppers running around a 90% of drawbacks has over 17.
PPR points in each of his last three games and at least a dozen
people are points in five of his last six games.
So just absolutely phenomenal. If you he's one of the I don't
know if I consider him a week winner but he is certainly
bolstering those teams that drafted him late Alan Robinson,
hasn't played each of the last two weeks, but again, I'm not
Probably not starting him when he does return.
The only other guy that I want to talk about, in this passing
attack is Cole commit who had 11 Targets on Thanksgiving.
That was a season high for him. He also ran around and 86% of
drawbacks, which was his second highest Mark of the season and
has now scored at least 14, PPR points in two of the last three
games. His The one game he didn't, he
had only to PR points. So that's not super great.
And Jimmy, Graham is still involved, which is Still just
frustrating like I don't know just think about for a second.
The fact that Jimmy Graham, it's a no-trade clause.
Like that's that's that's kind of bizarre.
But anyway, getting back to comec has at least six Targets
in four of his last five games, which is really solid, and it's
starting to look like the breakout tight end.
That I think a lot of people expected.
I don't see here. Coca met his one.
Routes on over 70% of drop backs in five of the last six games
here. So really coming on strong here.
Looks like might be a favorite Target of dressing field or or
any dog whoever is behind Center here.
So good for him. Love to see that.
Hopefully, when Robinson returns, he does a little bit of
something, but you never know. it's certainly been a, not a
great season for him, but it's been a great season for us, has
been a great season for you. Thank you for tuning in.
Remember to tune into the show tomorrow at 9:15 p.m.
Eastern. I'll be back here.
Same time next week. Subscribe to the YouTube become
a Ship chasing member and we'll see you next week.