1 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:17,400 Hello, everyone, and welcome to week. 13 staff chasing. 2 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:20,500 It is good to be back after a week awful. 3 00:00:20,500 --> 00:00:23,800 Everyone had a great Thanksgiving, great 4 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:28,400 Thanksgiving, slate gray, and slate, and are headed to the 5 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:31,400 playoffs. Which are either right around 6 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:37,100 the corner or are starting this week and hope to get you all 7 00:00:37,100 --> 00:00:41,800 ready for what is to come over the next several weeks. 8 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:45,500 If you are joining for the first time, welcome, my name is Sam. 9 00:00:45,500 --> 00:00:48,400 Hopin. I am your host for the show. 10 00:00:48,408 --> 00:00:51,900 If you get if you haven't watched before this is where 11 00:00:51,900 --> 00:00:57,000 I'll be going through some of the key stats that I think are 12 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:59,200 most important for laying a foundation. 13 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:02,600 Inform my research, trying to understand what happened this 14 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:04,300 past week. What's happened? 15 00:01:04,300 --> 00:01:09,400 The past couple weeks and help you make better - ooh football 16 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:13,700 at decisions. We've got Crosby in the room 17 00:01:13,700 --> 00:01:18,100 here with me today, going to celebrate another week in the 18 00:01:18,100 --> 00:01:20,300 NFL. But before we get into the 19 00:01:20,300 --> 00:01:24,900 details, want to talk through the stats, that I'll be using on 20 00:01:25,300 --> 00:01:29,100 the show today to give credit where credit is due from PFF. 21 00:01:29,100 --> 00:01:33,200 I have The routes data. That's pretty much any stat that 22 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:36,900 I give with a rock specific metric, that's targets per 23 00:01:36,900 --> 00:01:39,800 outrun, way to try to sprout, run, things like that. 24 00:01:40,300 --> 00:01:45,200 Also use their expected fantasy points, which is a model built 25 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:50,100 that wait Opportunity by the line of scrimmage and I use this 26 00:01:50,100 --> 00:01:54,300 primarily as a measure of usage, for players trying to 27 00:01:54,308 --> 00:01:58,200 understand, which players are getting the most valuable 28 00:01:58,500 --> 00:02:02,600 opportunities in there. Offense from the NFL 29 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:06,100 play-by-play data and I fell fast are I get area arms, which 30 00:02:06,100 --> 00:02:08,600 is the distance the ball travels in the air before. 31 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:11,700 It's actually a receiver, whether it's catch or not, have 32 00:02:11,700 --> 00:02:16,000 waited opportunity rating Whopper, which is a metric that 33 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:19,900 Josh firms might have created which weights area of share and 34 00:02:19,900 --> 00:02:23,700 Target share. Also have racer, which is 35 00:02:23,700 --> 00:02:27,700 receiver are conversion ratio, that's receiving yards, / are 36 00:02:27,700 --> 00:02:30,600 yards. And then Pacer on the flip side 37 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:35,900 is passing air, conversion ratio, that's passing passing 38 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:43,800 Area, Arts /, actual yards, and both of those are intended to 39 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:46,900 show efficiency for the receiver. 40 00:02:46,900 --> 00:02:51,000 And on the flip side, the quarterback Also have 41 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:53,500 quarterback adjusted yards per attempt, which is yards per 42 00:02:53,500 --> 00:02:57,500 attempt, but wait, sit with interceptions and touchdowns. 43 00:02:58,700 --> 00:03:02,500 Have passed right over expectation which is from the 44 00:03:02,500 --> 00:03:06,500 NFL faster model. It determines the likelihood 45 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:12,500 that a play is a drop back. And then I take the right in the 46 00:03:12,500 --> 00:03:15,700 games, the difference between their actual pass rate in their 47 00:03:15,700 --> 00:03:18,200 expected pass rate and that can see the password over 48 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:22,200 expectation. Similarly have cpoe, which is 49 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:26,200 completion, percentage over expectation, that shows a 50 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:31,100 quarterback's completion. Image / expectation, his actual 51 00:03:31,100 --> 00:03:35,300 completion percentage minus the expected completion percentage. 52 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:39,500 And then a couple of stats popularized by mr. 53 00:03:39,500 --> 00:03:41,700 Ben Gretsch, waited targets for outrun. 54 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:47,700 This weights are yards and Route run with a scalar included 55 00:03:47,700 --> 00:03:50,300 primarily used as four wide receivers to get an 56 00:03:50,300 --> 00:03:54,900 understanding of their sort of archetype and the role that 57 00:03:54,900 --> 00:03:57,700 they're playing. And then also have high value 58 00:03:57,700 --> 00:04:01,900 touches, which is a running back specific metric, that is any 59 00:04:01,900 --> 00:04:04,000 reception. And then carries inside the 60 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:08,700 10-yard line, I'll also refer to Green zone touches, which is any 61 00:04:08,700 --> 00:04:13,800 touch catch, which is, could be a catch or a rushed inside, the 62 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:16,899 opponent's 10-yard line. So I'm going to be going through 63 00:04:17,500 --> 00:04:19,399 these stats position by position. 64 00:04:19,399 --> 00:04:22,400 So I can compare against the other players in the position, 65 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:26,200 help you make your starts a waiver and trade decisions in 66 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:30,300 your league. And then I'll go more in depth 67 00:04:30,700 --> 00:04:35,700 through a couple of Team. Specific situations, a reminder 68 00:04:35,700 --> 00:04:38,200 to subscribe to the YouTube channel. 69 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:43,900 Become a member for just $5 to get live access to the show. 70 00:04:44,100 --> 00:04:46,500 Access to the Discord and a bunch of other benefits. 71 00:04:47,100 --> 00:04:50,600 And one final shout out to at change College on Twitter who 72 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:56,300 has continuing, has been continuing to add the timestamps 73 00:04:56,300 --> 00:05:00,000 on YouTube so you can skip to Different. 74 00:05:00,900 --> 00:05:04,500 Team or position the conversations that you might 75 00:05:04,500 --> 00:05:07,300 want to listen to you, that are more interesting to you than the 76 00:05:07,300 --> 00:05:12,000 others. So I'm going to be showing some 77 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:13,200 charts here. I'm going to pull up the 78 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:18,100 quarterback one right now. So hopefully you're watching on 79 00:05:18,100 --> 00:05:22,500 the YouTube to get the visualization, it's enhanced 80 00:05:22,500 --> 00:05:25,400 experience. And again, starting off with 81 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:30,500 quarterbacks here on the x-axis of this chart have adjusted 82 00:05:30,500 --> 00:05:36,100 yards per attempt on the y-axis, have touchdown raped and then as 83 00:05:36,100 --> 00:05:41,100 the size of the bubble is a Quarterbacks rushing yards per 84 00:05:41,100 --> 00:05:45,800 game and primarily looking for efficiency here because that's 85 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:51,700 typically what drives fantasy football, performance for the 86 00:05:51,700 --> 00:05:55,700 quarterback position at volume is not necessarily something 87 00:05:55,700 --> 00:06:02,300 that is going to help the quarterback position and one 88 00:06:02,300 --> 00:06:06,500 player that hasn't had a ton of volume but it's had extreme 89 00:06:06,500 --> 00:06:10,800 efficiency. Over the last six weeks is Mac 90 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:13,700 Jones. Who has led the patriots to six 91 00:06:13,700 --> 00:06:16,800 straight wins. They now lead the AFC East, they 92 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:19,300 have a big money night football match up this upcoming week 93 00:06:19,300 --> 00:06:23,100 against the bills in week. 13 will be one of the tougher 94 00:06:23,100 --> 00:06:27,700 defense has that he is played. But since the start of their 95 00:06:27,700 --> 00:06:33,900 winning streak, which started in week 7, this is how He's ranks, 96 00:06:33,900 --> 00:06:35,600 they have a negative four percent passing over 97 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:38,700 expectation. So again not passing quite as 98 00:06:38,700 --> 00:06:43,700 much as expected. But he has the fifth highest 99 00:06:43,700 --> 00:06:50,800 completion percentage over expectation at 3.4 percent. and 100 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:54,400 he also has the highest GPA per place that's expected Point data 101 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:58,100 per play among quarterbacks, which is phenomenal especially 102 00:06:58,100 --> 00:07:02,200 for a rookie He's throwing nine touchdowns to just two 103 00:07:02,700 --> 00:07:08,000 interceptions, has a 5.3 percent touchdown rate 8.6 adjusted 104 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:12,000 yards per attempt. He does have an 11:00 1.11 105 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:15,000 Pacer. So it's getting a bit of help 106 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:20,400 from his receivers in their yards after the catch and is 107 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:24,400 throwing just under 230 passing yards Per game. 108 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:26,900 You can see here that he's he's on this chart. 109 00:07:26,900 --> 00:07:29,900 He's right next to Aaron Rodgers and other greats like Andy 110 00:07:29,900 --> 00:07:33,400 Dalton, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo like it's funny to see 111 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:37,500 those names. Up there, given some of the 112 00:07:37,500 --> 00:07:41,200 performances that they've had recently, he is only averaging 113 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:46,900 15 fantasy points per game. So I don't think that he's quite 114 00:07:46,900 --> 00:07:53,900 a qb1 or someone that you would want to consider starting. in a 115 00:07:53,907 --> 00:07:59,900 normal League going forward, but someone to certainly keep on 116 00:07:59,900 --> 00:08:03,000 your radar if in the future, you know, in years to come. 117 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:07,800 They get some more offensive Firepower and offensive weapons 118 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:13,500 than he could be set up to be a regular Phantasy Star. 119 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaking of hot AFC teams and I'm flipping the chart here 120 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:25,800 because this next quarterback is the only other quarterback in 121 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:29,800 the discussed today. But to otago by Lola has led the 122 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:33,700 Dolphins to four straight wins, at least three of those four. 123 00:08:33,700 --> 00:08:39,000 He Was out the first game of that win streak and then came in 124 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:41,299 and relief of a Jacoby Brissette. 125 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:47,700 In the game against the Ravens so he's only actually started 126 00:08:47,700 --> 00:08:51,700 the last two games but again is played in the last three has 127 00:08:51,700 --> 00:08:55,300 sort of two and a half games under his belt. 128 00:08:55,300 --> 00:08:59,100 And since week 10 those two and a half games, he has eleven 129 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:02,800 eleven point seven percent completion percentage over 130 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:08,200 expectation, which is just absurd, which is second only to 131 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:12,800 noted, Gunslinger Taylor heinicke, he does have 0.2 NEPA 132 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:18,400 a play, which is phenomenal. He does have a very shallow 133 00:09:18,500 --> 00:09:22,800 shallow, 5.2 yard, average, depth of Target and we'll be 134 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:27,400 talking about jail and waddle for a second later on, in the 135 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:30,200 show and how much that benefits him. 136 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:35,100 But in his two starts overall, he is averaging, 250 passing 137 00:09:35,100 --> 00:09:39,000 yards, per game has a 4.7 percent, touch on rape, three 138 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:40,900 touchdowns and just one interception. 139 00:09:41,100 --> 00:09:46,300 Again, is also a verb Jin 15 points per game because of the 140 00:09:47,700 --> 00:09:52,000 shallow average depth of Target. He is a 1.73. 141 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:55,900 Pacer. So, his receivers are on 142 00:09:55,900 --> 00:10:02,600 average, almost doubling The yardage of the area art. 143 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:06,200 So, you know, if you think about that if he throws it five guards 144 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:11,400 Past the line of scrimmage or towelettes these 10 yards. 145 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:14,200 If he if they're if he throws a 10 yards past the line of 146 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:18,000 scrimmage, they're on average running an extra seven yards or 147 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:22,900 gaining an extra seven yards after the catch for him. 148 00:10:22,900 --> 00:10:28,200 So that's a lot of what his production is coming for from it 149 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:30,700 does have an 84 percent completion percentage. 150 00:10:30,700 --> 00:10:35,200 Again that's due in part to the the high cpoe and has an eight 151 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:39,200 point one adjusted. It's per attempt. 152 00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:46,600 I forgot to check now that I'm thinking about it, what the how 153 00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:50,400 the Dolphins have fared in password over expectation, the 154 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:53,300 past, several weeks. I know for most of the season, 155 00:10:53,300 --> 00:10:55,800 they have had a positive password over expectation, and 156 00:10:55,800 --> 00:11:01,400 that has certainly benefited to and the receivers you can see 157 00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:03,400 two of this past week on the chart. 158 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:08,400 Again, sort of right where we want to see him and He's been 159 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:11,500 doing this without DeVante Parker and will hold her. 160 00:11:11,500 --> 00:11:13,500 I don't even know if Will Fuller is going to come back this 161 00:11:13,500 --> 00:11:17,800 season. But he's been able to be good 162 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:24,200 enough with just Parker and and Mikus it to me just water and 163 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:28,300 like a sticky. So really good from him. 164 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:35,400 I'm not going to touch on them. This show, maybe I will next 165 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:41,000 week, but you see Russell Wilson here from the game last night on 166 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:44,200 Monday Night Football. He had about a six and a half 167 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:49,700 percent touchdown rate, 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt in 168 00:11:49,700 --> 00:11:54,400 that game and It was that offensive just so tough to 169 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,500 watch. So I Russell Wilson is not 170 00:11:57,500 --> 00:11:59,000 someone. I'm really trusting in a liner 171 00:11:59,700 --> 00:12:03,900 right now either again despite what we've seen from him 172 00:12:04,700 --> 00:12:09,300 historically because it's it is painful to watch that offense. 173 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:15,000 Okay, quick talk about the quarterback. 174 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:20,400 So let's get into the running backs here on the x-axis have 175 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:25,200 rushing expected fantasy points. On the y-axis have receiving 176 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:30,500 expected fantasy points, and then as the size of the bubble 177 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:34,700 fantasy points over expectations, that's F po as all 178 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:39,600 refer to it and these are all per game numbers here, looking 179 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:48,600 at the last five games on the chart and The first team that 180 00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:53,600 I'm going to talk through our the Eagles running back sequels 181 00:12:53,600 --> 00:13:00,700 and their backfield a update Mi Sanders did, leave the game 182 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:04,400 early this past week there was a report yesterday saying that 183 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:08,800 Nick seriani said Jordan, Howard and Mi standards are heading in 184 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:12,100 the right direction with their injuries, they'll know more on 185 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:18,100 Wednesday. So Unknown who will be able to 186 00:13:18,100 --> 00:13:21,700 start in the upcoming game. I believe they played the Jets 187 00:13:22,700 --> 00:13:28,200 this week, but in the past, two games with Mi Sanders, back 188 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:35,500 after he left, excuse me after he was out for a couple of 189 00:13:35,500 --> 00:13:41,100 weeks, here's how things. Sort of played out him in 190 00:13:41,100 --> 00:13:47,800 Boston, Scott have essentially split the time, it's just 191 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:51,900 between been between them. Jordan Howard miss last week, 192 00:13:51,900 --> 00:13:54,700 can he gain well, missed the week before? 193 00:13:54,700 --> 00:14:00,000 So neither of them played more than 20% of snaps in their game. 194 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:04,200 So, I think they're sort of the third, tier of running back, if 195 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:08,100 you will. And Boston, Scott has six total 196 00:14:08,100 --> 00:14:10,600 High. You touches over the past two 197 00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:15,600 weeks has at least two high-value touches in each of 198 00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:20,400 the last six games. So he's he's really been again. 199 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:26,000 One of the primary weapons in that offense has at least he has 200 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:31,900 two rings on touches the past two weeks has just one rushing 201 00:14:31,900 --> 00:14:35,600 touchdown but I think headache receiving touchdown as well if I 202 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:42,400 remember correctly. but again, so Boston Scott has Commander 203 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:45,900 39% of the touches over the last two week week, smile Sanders 204 00:14:45,900 --> 00:14:50,100 only has 41 percent and again, this is tricky because you left 205 00:14:50,100 --> 00:14:56,100 the game but it's it's not like he returned to a massive 206 00:14:56,100 --> 00:15:00,100 workload Sanders. Snap share was at 46% in week, 207 00:15:00,100 --> 00:15:06,500 eleven thirty three percent last week Sanders did has averaged 208 00:15:06,500 --> 00:15:09,600 nine point. Three expected points for games 209 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:14,300 over the last two weeks, but But Boston Scott is getting a lot of 210 00:15:14,300 --> 00:15:19,100 the passing work. He has 43 percent rocks for drop 211 00:15:19,100 --> 00:15:26,200 a crate and is averaging 5.7 receiving expected points per 212 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:31,000 game over the last two. So that's That's good for a 213 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:32,800 running back. That's about what we want to see 214 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:37,800 for a workload. As far as famous expected points 215 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:40,900 again. Scott had 21 expect a fantasy 216 00:15:40,900 --> 00:15:45,700 points this past week in, he's actually averaging - 4 F po per 217 00:15:45,700 --> 00:15:48,500 game. The last two weeks. 218 00:15:48,500 --> 00:15:55,400 So he certainly has Some room to grow and it's worth noting. 219 00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:58,400 You know, obviously Sailors has been banged up a little bit this 220 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:02,400 season. So he's volume numbers are a 221 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:07,900 little weird, but he has yet to score a single touchdown this 222 00:16:07,900 --> 00:16:11,700 season. Now, he's he's recorded five 223 00:16:11,700 --> 00:16:17,200 games with double digits, expected fantasy points, but is 224 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:22,500 not has not been able to convert on those and turn into a massive 225 00:16:22,500 --> 00:16:24,800 week. From a fantasy football 226 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:31,600 perspective. So assuming all four of these 227 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:35,600 guys are healthy, sander Scott, Howard date. 228 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:41,900 Well I think I would expect it. Be a 1A 1B situation with 229 00:16:41,900 --> 00:16:45,200 Sanders and Scott and Howard and game. 230 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:52,400 Well will be Worked in ever so slightly slightly enough. 231 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:58,500 That it'll be painful for for Scott and Sanders managers 232 00:16:58,900 --> 00:17:03,300 because again this is it looks like it could be a four headed 233 00:17:03,300 --> 00:17:08,700 back field which is not what we want in any sort of fantasy 234 00:17:08,700 --> 00:17:11,700 football. Situation. 235 00:17:12,099 --> 00:17:14,500 The last thing I'll mention Scott and Sanders are both 236 00:17:14,500 --> 00:17:18,099 averaging about 13 opportunities with game in the last two weeks 237 00:17:18,599 --> 00:17:22,700 which is solid. But again, they're not going to 238 00:17:22,700 --> 00:17:27,099 be able to have the ceilings that you would expect or hope 239 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:33,500 without getting, you know, maybe 15 or 16 plus opportunities per 240 00:17:33,500 --> 00:17:39,000 game in that backfield. Boston, Scott did have last last 241 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:42,300 thing. I'll mention And Scott had a 51% 242 00:17:42,500 --> 00:17:46,100 snap chair in week 12 and now it was the highest that it's been 243 00:17:46,100 --> 00:17:50,800 over the last four weeks. So, sort of trending up for 244 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,600 Scott. I think if, if Sanders is out if 245 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:57,500 Sanders an hour are both out that Boston, Scott is for sure a 246 00:17:57,500 --> 00:18:03,400 great play this upcoming week. But if not, then I'm probably 247 00:18:04,300 --> 00:18:12,200 avoiding that backfield where possible Sorry, let me take a 248 00:18:12,208 --> 00:18:17,100 lot of drinking breaks today, a little bit of a scratchy throat 249 00:18:17,100 --> 00:18:22,200 but anyway, I'll move on to the Bills. 250 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:26,500 Running backs, they played on Thanksgiving the evening, 251 00:18:26,500 --> 00:18:33,500 Thanksgiving game and for that game, Zack Moss was a healthy 252 00:18:33,500 --> 00:18:39,400 scratch and Devin Singletary. Got the start met Rita was 253 00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:44,900 Worked in as well. I thought I had pulled up the 254 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:47,500 snap share so you know, but I believe Singletary. 255 00:18:47,900 --> 00:18:54,200 Played about 70% of the snaps. While Brito was at 30% in the 256 00:18:54,200 --> 00:19:00,300 game on Thanksgiving met Rita did have a receiving touchdown 257 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:05,600 at the end of the game both Breda and Singletary, did have 258 00:19:05,700 --> 00:19:09,700 double-digit opportunities they had Breda had 11. 259 00:19:09,900 --> 00:19:15,100 Singletary, had 16, Breda had three high-value touches to just 260 00:19:15,100 --> 00:19:19,200 two for Devin Singletary but Devon Singletary did run a route 261 00:19:19,500 --> 00:19:27,000 on 64-66 to make 65% of routes in that game, which was his 262 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:32,200 second highest rate of the season and highest since week 263 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:40,600 one when he was at 67%, And if this is a two-headed backfield, 264 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:46,100 then I think either one of the guys is playable but if all 265 00:19:46,100 --> 00:19:51,000 three of them are involved, then it's not very good when all 266 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,400 three were active in weeks 10 and 11. 267 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:59,700 No back had more than eight opportunities in either game 268 00:20:00,300 --> 00:20:03,800 Breda had six and seven, Singletary at eight and seven 269 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:08,600 mosfet seven and four. So It was very, very split up 270 00:20:09,500 --> 00:20:13,900 and you just couldn't rely on any of that when it was 271 00:20:13,900 --> 00:20:18,600 Singletary and Moss. Or a good stretch of the season. 272 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:22,100 They were both regularly getting double digit opportunities. 273 00:20:22,100 --> 00:20:26,400 And in that offense, even though they do pass a ton, there's a 274 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:29,300 lot of pressure on Equity that they can have. 275 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:35,300 Excuse me, that Makes them valuable and worth starting. 276 00:20:37,300 --> 00:20:40,100 But Zack Morris is sort of been treated a little bit differently 277 00:20:40,100 --> 00:20:45,900 since their week 7 by in the last five games. 278 00:20:45,900 --> 00:20:49,500 In the last four games for him, his touch percentage back to 279 00:20:50,500 --> 00:20:52,700 excuse me percent of backfield touches. 280 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:58,600 He's at 38%. He was at 50% in the five weeks 281 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:02,500 before the. By now Singletary has stayed 282 00:21:02,500 --> 00:21:07,600 about the same. Going from 52% before the bike 283 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:13,900 to 50% after the by but Matt Rita has gone from 22 percent to 284 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:19,400 37 percent after the box. So, Singletary is it's like the 285 00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:24,200 one guy who they seem to consistently Trust I don't think 286 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,700 they're ever going to give him a Workhorse battle by role because 287 00:21:28,300 --> 00:21:30,500 Breda and Moss are both competent backs. 288 00:21:30,500 --> 00:21:34,700 But this is the second time, this season that Moss was a 289 00:21:34,708 --> 00:21:40,000 healthy scratch. And it could become a weekly 290 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:41,700 thing. I think there were reports of 291 00:21:41,700 --> 00:21:44,400 leading up to the Thanksgiving game, talking about how the 292 00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:46,600 bills wanted to get Freedom more involved, because he is an 293 00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:48,600 explosive back. And I agree with that for you 294 00:21:48,608 --> 00:21:53,400 has been one of my favorite guys to watch in fantasy football. 295 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:58,200 The last couple years because of his explosiveness but the one 296 00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:05,300 thing I wouldn't I would be more keen to hold onto Singletary and 297 00:22:05,300 --> 00:22:10,100 Trust his volume. Because again, he's getting the 298 00:22:10,100 --> 00:22:15,900 higher snap share and read it. Actually is averaging 6.3 299 00:22:15,900 --> 00:22:19,800 fantasy points over expectation for game in the last three 300 00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:23,000 games. So, could potentially be due for 301 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:27,800 some aggression, especially with the lower snap share, that he's 302 00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:38,300 getting I think the other thing the last thing that's worth 303 00:22:38,300 --> 00:22:41,100 noting. Excuse me here. 304 00:22:41,100 --> 00:22:49,100 What the bills is? Again, Singletary is averaging 305 00:22:49,900 --> 00:22:51,500 three high-value touches per game. 306 00:22:51,500 --> 00:22:54,900 In the last five. Matt Breda 2.7. 307 00:22:55,300 --> 00:22:59,500 Zack Moss is averaging three high-value touches in his four 308 00:22:59,500 --> 00:23:04,300 games. But previous to the by again, 309 00:23:04,300 --> 00:23:06,100 met Bree. I had only played in one game 310 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,000 but he didn't have any high value touches so he's taking 311 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:15,200 some of those away obviously from the other two backs. 312 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:21,400 So this I think we hope that again, this one means a 313 00:23:21,408 --> 00:23:24,300 two-headed backfield. What? 314 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:26,400 Maybe we don't want to be a two-headed. 315 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:32,600 Backfield is in Washington and unfortunately, JD mckissack went 316 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,300 down. I think he hit his head against 317 00:23:35,300 --> 00:23:38,800 another player's, me and the game last night, but his agent 318 00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:41,800 tweeted today that he's all good. 319 00:23:41,900 --> 00:23:46,200 So that's good to hear for his health. 320 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:51,700 But Antonio Gibson in the game last night, set career, highs in 321 00:23:51,700 --> 00:23:57,300 snaps at 67 percent. At 29 carries seven catches and 322 00:23:57,300 --> 00:24:02,600 36 touches again. All of those Our career high 323 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:09,300 marks for Antonio Gibson, in a game, over the last three games 324 00:24:09,300 --> 00:24:14,600 sense. The Washington football teams by 325 00:24:14,900 --> 00:24:20,300 he is averaging 27, 27 opportunities per game. 326 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:25,700 Nearly seven 6.7 high-value touches per game. 327 00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:30,200 And here's the big thing. He's averaging. 328 00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:39,000 Remember though 3.7 green zone touches per game. 329 00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:45,900 Before last night, it had been six games that JD mckissack had 330 00:24:45,900 --> 00:24:51,000 gone without a green zone touch. And I think, I mean, obviously 331 00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:55,600 Gibson managers were tilting last night because the couple 332 00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:58,100 then he got that mckissick got last night. 333 00:24:58,300 --> 00:25:04,400 He ran in for a touchdown. And it was not fun to see. but, 334 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:11,400 Gibson is getting these Red Zone opportunities which is huge and 335 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:15,500 that's just as valuable if not more valuable than the receiving 336 00:25:15,500 --> 00:25:19,500 work and his receiving work, stayed about the same. 337 00:25:19,500 --> 00:25:23,300 He's at a 31% route rate. The last three weeks has three 338 00:25:23,300 --> 00:25:25,300 is averaging three targets per game. 339 00:25:26,500 --> 00:25:31,100 Three catches per game. So that that really hasn't 340 00:25:31,100 --> 00:25:34,100 changed much is percent of receptions. 341 00:25:34,100 --> 00:25:41,400 Out of the backfield has gone up to 47% from 33% before the bye. 342 00:25:42,900 --> 00:25:45,700 What is total? Touch percent has gone up to 68 343 00:25:45,700 --> 00:25:53,000 percent up from 60 percent. Before the but I've so many is 344 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:56,800 getting he's everything 0.28 targets per outrun, which is 345 00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:00,400 phenomenal. I mean, the guys averaging 21 346 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:05,600 Point 3 expected points per game over the last three and has 347 00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:08,600 negative 4X fantasy points over excitation. 348 00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:12,900 So he could be doing even more. I'm very bullish on Antonio, 349 00:26:12,900 --> 00:26:15,500 Gibson for the rest of the season. 350 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:20,200 Antonio Gibson was second on the week. among running backs with 351 00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:26,200 11 high-value touches again, you're obviously bummed that 352 00:26:28,300 --> 00:26:32,300 Gibson didn't get into the end zone last night. 353 00:26:33,700 --> 00:26:36,800 Or I guess that mckissick score stole. 354 00:26:38,300 --> 00:26:42,600 Some opportunities there. But again, things have been 355 00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:44,300 trending down for Gibson. They're printing all the way 356 00:26:44,300 --> 00:26:50,200 back up right now. Another backfield that's kind of 357 00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:54,600 trending down, maybe turning off the Titans backfield wanted to 358 00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:56,600 revisit this. I think I talked about this 359 00:26:56,600 --> 00:27:03,000 before. I took my personal by And Deonte 360 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:06,500 foreman and Adrian Peterson were sort of battling for that. 361 00:27:06,500 --> 00:27:11,800 Number one role, Now it's down to it looks like dr. 362 00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:16,400 Hilyard and detox a foreman. Some someone named Tori. 363 00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:20,300 Carter. Saw 32% of snaps, I'm not 364 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:30,000 totally concerned about him, but Hilliard in The last two games 365 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:34,700 has run a route on over 55% of drop drop acts in each of the 366 00:27:34,700 --> 00:27:38,700 last two games. Has had 20 expected fantasy 367 00:27:38,700 --> 00:27:42,000 points in week. 11 at 10. Expect the fantasy points in 368 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,800 week. 12 had a very long run. Has averaged five high-value 369 00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:49,600 touches the last two games. And has at least 14 370 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:53,400 opportunities in the last two game. 371 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:57,900 So he's come on very strong has above a 50% snap. 372 00:27:57,900 --> 00:28:03,700 Share the last two weeks and is just sort of fitting in I think 373 00:28:03,700 --> 00:28:08,100 really, really well. Jeremy McNichols is missed the 374 00:28:08,108 --> 00:28:11,700 last two, games are a tree and Peterson didn't play this last 375 00:28:11,700 --> 00:28:17,800 week either. So I think definitely art is the 376 00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:24,200 guy. Right now, he's commanded 69% of 377 00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:27,400 the receiving work in the two games that he's played. 378 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:32,100 Has a 17 percent Target share, which is really good for a 379 00:28:32,100 --> 00:28:35,500 running back in that passing attack. 380 00:28:35,500 --> 00:28:40,900 Does not have many other options, so if the Titans do 381 00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:43,400 lean on him as the pass-catching back. 382 00:28:43,500 --> 00:28:50,100 If I don't actually don't know what nickels Status is right now 383 00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:55,400 and if he's going to be back any time soon but Hilliard could be 384 00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:59,400 in for a big roll. Down the stretch here, if they 385 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:04,800 think they found something with him, Deonte Foreman did have 386 00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:08,000 five high-value touches this past week. 387 00:29:09,500 --> 00:29:12,900 Along with 20 total opportunities so it's probably 388 00:29:12,900 --> 00:29:17,100 still between those two guys played a 49% snap share which 389 00:29:17,100 --> 00:29:25,200 was His Highest of the season. And had has had three claims on 390 00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:29,000 touches the last two weeks compared to just two for 391 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,200 Hillier. So really just Hilliard. 392 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:33,600 Informant are the only two that I want to hold onto right now. 393 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:39,200 And have investments in for the Titans backfield. 394 00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:49,700 A couple of. Final nuggets and I'm pulling 395 00:29:49,700 --> 00:29:52,100 these from couple quick Shadows to John Daigle. 396 00:29:52,100 --> 00:29:57,300 Adam Levitan been Gretchen getting the getting some of 397 00:29:57,300 --> 00:30:00,600 these Stacks from them. As well. 398 00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:06,800 But Elijah Mitchell had a broken finger. 399 00:30:08,100 --> 00:30:11,800 And then ended up playing this past week and played 70% of 400 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:15,500 snaps at a 91 percent share of the backfield touches in his 401 00:30:15,500 --> 00:30:19,100 first game, after breaking the finger, and those were both 402 00:30:19,100 --> 00:30:23,800 season High marks been handled. He has not said me, Mitchell has 403 00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:28,300 not handled less than 72 percent of the 49ers backfield touches 404 00:30:28,300 --> 00:30:30,200 in the 74 games of these played this year. 405 00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:35,600 So just absolutely dominant the one concern I've had About the 406 00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:37,900 rent, excuse me? The 49ers backfield is that they 407 00:30:37,900 --> 00:30:45,600 do not have. a lot of high-value touches go the way of the back, 408 00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:49,600 the running backs. But I believe Mitchell had six 409 00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:52,700 receptions in this game. Which is if I mean if he's 410 00:30:52,700 --> 00:30:56,400 getting the receiving work, then he is for sure. 411 00:30:57,200 --> 00:30:59,500 A League winner. Speaking of League winner, 412 00:31:00,100 --> 00:31:03,900 League, winning Lenny, Leonard fournette, LED all running backs 413 00:31:03,900 --> 00:31:06,200 with 13 high-value touches in week. 12. 414 00:31:06,300 --> 00:31:08,400 This is the second game of the season with double-digit 415 00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:11,400 high-value touches. He now has at least eight 416 00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:15,200 high-value touches in each of his last three games and is his 417 00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:17,600 6.7. How do I transfer? 418 00:31:17,700 --> 00:31:25,400 I am average currently leads the league, so Sorry to pack any 419 00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:29,400 other Ronald Jones truthers but Leonard fournette is the Bell. 420 00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:35,100 Cow in this backfield green, Hans came back. 421 00:31:35,100 --> 00:31:39,500 He might have activated the injury that he had to his calf 422 00:31:39,500 --> 00:31:44,100 but he played 23 snaps. Had seven carries and ran 13 423 00:31:44,100 --> 00:31:48,400 routes in the game. Nick Chubb was still the lead 424 00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:53,400 guy with 30 snaps and it carries and Any routes during his 425 00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:57,400 Johnson only had six snaps. What did not I believe only got 426 00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:02,600 one opportunity. So job, I think, is the steady 427 00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:05,400 guy here? We'll see what happens with 428 00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:08,700 Kareem hunt. Believe they're entering their 429 00:32:08,700 --> 00:32:12,000 by this week, so hopefully chance for them to get fully 430 00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:16,600 healthy. Jamaal Williams. 431 00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:20,100 Unfortunately, younger Swift may be injured Williams. 432 00:32:20,100 --> 00:32:25,700 Played 63 percent of snacks ran around 54% of drop backs had 433 00:32:25,700 --> 00:32:29,500 five high-value touches got six rings on touches in his first 434 00:32:29,500 --> 00:32:32,900 four games. So should be in a very hard 435 00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:40,500 fight touch-friendly, start this upcoming week and Again, the 436 00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:44,500 lions are one of those teams that have, if not the most one 437 00:32:44,500 --> 00:32:47,500 of the most high value touches per game for the running backs, 438 00:32:48,100 --> 00:32:51,200 SE Kwang Berkeley back to a Workhorse role, he played 87% of 439 00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:54,900 snaps, run around and ran a route on 73% of drop backs. 440 00:32:55,800 --> 00:33:02,000 And then the final thing, as far as the Dolphins backfield miles 441 00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:12,600 Gaston was in on 50 percent of The snaps Lindsay was at, he 442 00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:16,500 played 15 snaps off my tit 13 and layered at 12. 443 00:33:17,700 --> 00:33:22,100 So the other thing that that Daigle notes Here is Gaskins. 444 00:33:22,100 --> 00:33:24,100 50% share of running back touches. 445 00:33:24,100 --> 00:33:27,300 What was his lowest share without Malcolm Brown? 446 00:33:27,300 --> 00:33:29,300 But nine of Lindsay's 12 carries. 447 00:33:29,300 --> 00:33:35,500 Occurred once the Dolphins took a 9:33 lead. - gasping before 448 00:33:35,500 --> 00:33:41,100 this game was the king of not. Taking advantage of his 449 00:33:41,100 --> 00:33:45,000 opportunities and ends ended up finding the end zone twice in 450 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:46,900 the one week. I didn't play him in DFS so that 451 00:33:46,900 --> 00:33:50,500 was a lot of fun to watch, but I think Gaskin is still clearly 452 00:33:50,500 --> 00:33:54,000 the lead guy here. Philip Lindsay potentially could 453 00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:57,000 be taking over for off men and lured them. 454 00:33:59,900 --> 00:34:06,700 Okay, moving on to the wide receiver position on the x-axis 455 00:34:06,700 --> 00:34:12,600 here have waited targets per outrun on the y-axis have are 456 00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:16,500 yards market, share, and then the size of a player's bubble is 457 00:34:18,300 --> 00:34:22,300 fantasy points over expectation. The first group here, talking 458 00:34:22,300 --> 00:34:27,500 about the 49ers, the last four weeks they still have a - ten 459 00:34:27,500 --> 00:34:29,699 percent pass rate over expectation which is one of the 460 00:34:29,699 --> 00:34:33,199 concerns that I pointed out a couple weeks ago with the, both 461 00:34:33,199 --> 00:34:35,800 Samuel. I think saying he was a sell 462 00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:40,000 High. Obviously, I hope he didn't sell 463 00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:46,300 High because he's been amazing. Might miss a week or two now, 464 00:34:46,300 --> 00:34:52,300 but he has been efficient as efficient as anyone in the last 465 00:34:52,300 --> 00:34:55,100 four weeks. Since Kittles been back. 466 00:34:55,300 --> 00:34:59,000 He's averaging. Being almost 20 PR points. 467 00:34:59,700 --> 00:35:02,800 As a 19 percent Target share running around an 88% of 468 00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:05,700 drawbacks. But again, he's averaging 8.3 469 00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:11,400 fantasy points over expectation. Has one of the larger bubbles on 470 00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:16,400 the chart here. So one that's starting to come 471 00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:19,300 back though. Mr. Brandon are you car? 472 00:35:19,300 --> 00:35:22,800 Cover boy for the show today? Over the last four weeks. 473 00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:30,300 Averaging three targets per game has to receiving touchdowns as a 474 00:35:30,300 --> 00:35:35,300 24 percent Target, share 31% area of share 0.55, Whopper 475 00:35:35,500 --> 00:35:39,000 0.56, waited targets per outrun which is really good. 476 00:35:39,500 --> 00:35:43,200 And it's averaging 11.5 expected points, which is actually the 477 00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:52,400 most Among 49ers receivers. He's also running a route on 94% 478 00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:56,700 of Dropbox has not been below 90% in each of the last four 479 00:35:56,700 --> 00:35:58,500 weeks. So, it seems like he's out of 480 00:35:58,500 --> 00:36:03,200 the Kyle. Shanahan doghouse if you will, 481 00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:08,000 has had a way to Target spur outrun of over 0.6 in each of 482 00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:11,600 the last two weeks. Are you his averaging? 483 00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:15,600 Excuse me. He's had the most area ards in 484 00:36:16,100 --> 00:36:20,300 the last two games. On the team has had over 50 in 485 00:36:20,300 --> 00:36:23,100 the last two games. So really is coming on late, 486 00:36:23,100 --> 00:36:29,000 which is really, really good if you have been waiting for him, I 487 00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:33,900 mentioned that Debo Samuel, may miss some time and there was a 488 00:36:33,908 --> 00:36:39,100 report it sounds like Juwan James will be the guy to step in 489 00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:48,100 for Samuel in his absence. But I I would rather just Stick 490 00:36:48,100 --> 00:36:51,700 with. I you can kid'll at this point. 491 00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:55,600 Jennings has won a wrap on 62% of drop backs. 492 00:36:55,600 --> 00:37:00,900 His last three games. Has a 9% cutter, share 11 493 00:37:00,900 --> 00:37:05,500 percent error share. He does have a pair of receiving 494 00:37:05,500 --> 00:37:10,600 touchdowns as well, but I think this offense just gets a little 495 00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:14,800 bit more concentrated around its stars in IU and kittel. 496 00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:21,100 Obviously the one thing I haven't mentioned with Samuel is 497 00:37:21,100 --> 00:37:24,700 that they started using him as a running back. 498 00:37:24,700 --> 00:37:28,300 He's gotten several carries in each of the last couple games 499 00:37:28,700 --> 00:37:33,900 and Brendan are you actually had a carry of his own last week. 500 00:37:33,900 --> 00:37:39,400 So it'll be interesting to see if Are you does get a few more 501 00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:43,800 carries. With Samuel out or if they just 502 00:37:44,300 --> 00:37:52,800 hand it to Elijah Mitchell. Another the other group, another 503 00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:55,500 group of receivers that we're talking about here is the 504 00:37:55,500 --> 00:37:59,600 Broncos wide receivers. And if you saw my tweet earlier, 505 00:38:00,100 --> 00:38:04,200 you know, that court and Simon is just not doing well right 506 00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:08,800 now. He was averaging 100 in 35 are 507 00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:14,600 yards per game. In the first seven games has 508 00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:18,300 just 137 are yards total in the last four weeks. 509 00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,900 Combined, this obviously coincides with Jerry Judy 510 00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:26,000 returning Courtland Sutton over the last four weeks, only 511 00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:29,200 averaging, three targets per game, and 11 percent Target, 512 00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:32,200 share, a twenty percent area of share. 513 00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:38,100 And his a.is at eleven point four yards, which is against 514 00:38:38,100 --> 00:38:41,800 still solid and no other receiver is averaging more than 515 00:38:42,300 --> 00:38:46,300 50 Area are birds per game so it's not like they're slinging a 516 00:38:46,308 --> 00:38:50,700 deep to others. The volume just is not there and 517 00:38:50,700 --> 00:38:55,100 he's wanting a route on 90% of drop racks still, Which is 518 00:38:55,100 --> 00:39:01,000 higher than Judy has been at 80% And just in line with their now, 519 00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:06,100 wide receiver to Tim Patrick, who's averaging just over four 520 00:39:06,100 --> 00:39:12,900 targets per game, has a 16 percent Target share, but it is 521 00:39:12,900 --> 00:39:16,000 not pretty for Courtland. Sutton doesn't have more than 522 00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:20,400 five Targets in a game since week 6. 523 00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:27,100 And is just struggling to get anything going at all. 524 00:39:29,900 --> 00:39:32,100 Judy, on the other hand is played solid. 525 00:39:32,100 --> 00:39:34,400 He hasn't he doesn't have a receiving touched on yet. 526 00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:38,400 So the fantasy production hasn't been hasn't quite been there. 527 00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:41,700 He's ever 9pp are points per game since returning. 528 00:39:43,100 --> 00:39:49,600 But has a lower 7.8 yard average depth of Target, but thanks to 529 00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:53,300 his 23 percent Target share again. 530 00:39:53,300 --> 00:39:56,600 He's again, I like I said, he's a kind of six targets per game, 531 00:39:56,900 --> 00:40:00,200 is that between about 10 and a half expected points per game. 532 00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:04,400 So, has some as -1.5 fantasy points over expectation? 533 00:40:05,500 --> 00:40:09,400 So, I think could be in for a bounce-back. 534 00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:15,600 Eventually could be popping in some Area Arts, Bi-Lo models if 535 00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:19,200 you will. But I mean, Sutton's getting 536 00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:23,600 about a third of the work that he was getting before. 537 00:40:25,300 --> 00:40:31,200 Judy return from injury. So it's you cannot trust in my 538 00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:32,800 opinion. Cannot trust Portland Summit in 539 00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:37,100 the lineup until we see something change. 540 00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:41,200 And we're going to need to see a lot change for that to happen. 541 00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:44,600 It's confusing. Because again, they gave Tim 542 00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:47,700 Patrick, a big extension. They've given Sutton a big 543 00:40:47,700 --> 00:40:52,000 extension as well. So on, I'm sure what's going on 544 00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:59,500 There. The Browns wide receivers. 545 00:40:59,500 --> 00:41:03,500 They are missing one of their or what used to be one of their 546 00:41:03,900 --> 00:41:06,100 primary past, cultures and Odell Beckham jr. 547 00:41:06,100 --> 00:41:09,900 He's now been away from the team for four weeks now. 548 00:41:11,700 --> 00:41:13,300 Including the game that you missed. 549 00:41:13,500 --> 00:41:20,100 And for a while I was saying that there's nobody on this team 550 00:41:20,100 --> 00:41:24,900 that Not necessarily isn't worth rostering but certainly is not 551 00:41:24,900 --> 00:41:27,700 worth starting. And I'm changing my tune here 552 00:41:27,700 --> 00:41:33,100 with Jarvis Landry. Who ran a route on 98% of 553 00:41:33,100 --> 00:41:37,900 drawbacks this past week, which is, which was a season-high also 554 00:41:37,900 --> 00:41:41,600 had 10 Targets in the game, which was tied for the most but 555 00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:46,100 no other receiver. Or player in the game against 556 00:41:46,100 --> 00:41:50,600 the. Ravens on Sunday night had more 557 00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:55,300 than five Targets in the game. So he has pretty much got that 558 00:41:55,700 --> 00:41:59,100 wide receiver. One roll locked down over the 559 00:41:59,100 --> 00:42:02,900 last four games without Beckham has a 25 percent Target share, 560 00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:05,000 averaging, seven targets per game. 561 00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:09,900 It's actually averaging 62 and a half Area Arts per game and has 562 00:42:09,900 --> 00:42:12,300 an eight point nine. Average depth at Target, which 563 00:42:12,300 --> 00:42:16,700 is, I think a little higher than his typical. 564 00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:22,300 Typical average depth of Target is a virgin - to fantasy points 565 00:42:22,300 --> 00:42:25,400 over expectations. So could be again, an in line 566 00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:29,700 for a bigger week. One of these one of these days 567 00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:34,600 has at least five Targets in each of the last six games as 568 00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:39,800 well and has over 100 our area ards in back-to-back squeaks. 569 00:42:40,300 --> 00:42:42,900 So he's certainly getting a lot of work. 570 00:42:43,300 --> 00:42:47,700 Probably the one guy that Baker Mayfield trust right now behind 571 00:42:47,700 --> 00:42:52,700 him. It's really only Donovan, 572 00:42:52,700 --> 00:42:56,400 people's Jones, who has shown some explosive a tea. 573 00:42:57,300 --> 00:43:01,600 That's a word, get some deep shots as at least 60 are yards 574 00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:08,300 in each of his last five games played has a 15 percent Target 575 00:43:08,300 --> 00:43:11,900 share, only averaging, four targets per gate, 4.3 targets 576 00:43:11,900 --> 00:43:16,300 per game since Beckham left. What is leaving the team with 71 577 00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:22,900 Area Arts per game. Over the last four weeks and is 578 00:43:22,900 --> 00:43:26,100 one, is the only other player running a route on more than 75. 579 00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:31,700 This is me over 60% of dropped paps among wide receiver. 580 00:43:31,700 --> 00:43:38,300 So would be the biggest beneficiary if Other players 581 00:43:38,300 --> 00:43:41,800 were to submit or if Landry to be what were too. 582 00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:47,100 To go down. A couple other. 583 00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:56,100 Final notes at the wide receiver position have Jill while he had 584 00:43:56,400 --> 00:44:04,000 in week 12, a 0.95 Whopper and again to a had an absurdly low 585 00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:09,700 3.7 average depth of targets and he likes to go underneath which 586 00:44:09,700 --> 00:44:14,700 fits Jalen Waddles routes. And you can see him here on the 587 00:44:14,700 --> 00:44:19,400 chart just had a phenomenal day real Breakout game for the 588 00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:21,800 rookie. Another rookie that had a really 589 00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:25,200 good game was a life of more. He ran around on 96% of 590 00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:30,400 drawbacks, had the 33 percent Target, share 0.85, 85 Whopper I 591 00:44:30,408 --> 00:44:35,400 think people were concerned about how he'd perform with Zach 592 00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:39,600 Wilson back under Center, but a, an encouraging sign there. 593 00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:44,800 And finally DeSean Jackson had a season High 50%. 594 00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:49,500 Excuse me 56% routes one rate with a very strong 0.76. 595 00:44:49,500 --> 00:44:52,900 Weighted targets per out run for the season. 596 00:44:52,900 --> 00:44:58,300 So looks like he could potentially be taking over that 597 00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:02,500 deep threat role for the Las Vegas. 598 00:45:02,500 --> 00:45:16,100 Raiders. Okay, you got the tight end 599 00:45:16,100 --> 00:45:20,600 position here and have two players. 600 00:45:21,900 --> 00:45:25,500 That I want to talk through the first of which is Rob 601 00:45:25,500 --> 00:45:30,300 Gronkowski, who has been back the last two weeks and has been 602 00:45:30,300 --> 00:45:35,300 playing phenomenal, is back to its height and one actually 603 00:45:35,300 --> 00:45:38,600 probably a top-five tighten at this point but Dwayne McFarland 604 00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:43,300 noted that Croc is being targeted more than any other 605 00:45:43,300 --> 00:45:49,700 tight end in the NFL on a per hour basis at 26% leads by two 606 00:45:49,700 --> 00:45:51,000 percent over. Darren Waller. 607 00:45:51,100 --> 00:45:54,900 All over his last two games is averaging, he has eight. 608 00:45:54,900 --> 00:45:59,800 And ten targets is averaging nearly 100 receiving yards per 609 00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:03,500 game has a 22 percent. Target share is still only 610 00:46:03,500 --> 00:46:07,500 running around and 66% of Dropbox but that's that's enough 611 00:46:07,500 --> 00:46:07,900 again. What? 612 00:46:07,900 --> 00:46:11,900 He's on the field, they are targeting him. 613 00:46:11,900 --> 00:46:16,500 Has a 29% area of share, which actually leads delete student 614 00:46:16,500 --> 00:46:19,000 thinks the team over the last two weeks. 615 00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:28,600 And is averaging 14, expected points per game, has gotten 16.2 616 00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:33,600 PR points per game. So, again, his got them looking 617 00:46:33,600 --> 00:46:38,600 at his 81% routes per drop back rate in week 12 was a season 618 00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:44,200 high for him, so they have not been shy about But he came back 619 00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:50,700 into a top-tier roll head. Like I said, ten Targets in the 620 00:46:50,700 --> 00:46:54,200 game against India was kind of a walkie game because no other 621 00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:59,100 player have more than five Targets in that game and would 622 00:46:59,100 --> 00:47:02,300 expect that Evans and Godwin, and Antonio Brown when he 623 00:47:02,300 --> 00:47:08,200 returns to take up some of those opportunities, but the fact that 624 00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:11,100 he's scoring so many could be our points without having caught 625 00:47:11,100 --> 00:47:15,700 a touchdown is Just absurd and really, really good. 626 00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:20,600 Someone you can certainly trust in your lineups, moving forward. 627 00:47:21,700 --> 00:47:25,300 So what I'm a little bit more cautious on is Evan engram. 628 00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:33,300 In the last three games, has a 17 percent Target, share and is 629 00:47:33,300 --> 00:47:38,200 running a route on 94% of drop. Back to put is averaging fewer 630 00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:43,700 than five targets per game. Did have his second highest 631 00:47:43,700 --> 00:47:46,900 number of Targets in the game at six percent, extra Mia, six 632 00:47:46,900 --> 00:47:52,400 Targets, this past week did run a route on 94% of Dropbox in is 633 00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:55,900 actually been above 90 percent in each. 634 00:47:57,000 --> 00:48:00,800 Of the last three games. So so that's solid. 635 00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:06,400 I just I wonder what this offense really is just like 636 00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:11,100 Darius. Tony was out this past week and 637 00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:13,700 Sterling. Shepherd hasn't been healthy 638 00:48:13,700 --> 00:48:16,800 either. So unsure how those guys will 639 00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:22,000 impact him when they return. But I think is a probably a 640 00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:26,000 low-end tighten, one high-end tight end to given that again. 641 00:48:26,100 --> 00:48:28,600 Over the last two weeks, he's not that I'm seeing it. 642 00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:34,500 The only player running around more than 85% of drop backs 643 00:48:35,100 --> 00:48:39,100 among receivers and tight ends for the Giants. 644 00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:45,100 Last note on. A tight end. 645 00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:49,300 Logan Thomas was back last night. 646 00:48:49,500 --> 00:48:53,800 There were reports early on before the game saying that they 647 00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:57,800 were going to ease him in and they did healing render out on 648 00:48:57,800 --> 00:49:01,700 20 reps with me, 28 of the 41 heinicke. 649 00:49:01,700 --> 00:49:07,400 Dropbox, last night, he was like right around 100 percent of 650 00:49:07,700 --> 00:49:11,700 routes run. Before he got injured but good 651 00:49:11,700 --> 00:49:16,600 to see him back especially with Ricky Seals Jones out. 652 00:49:19,300 --> 00:49:30,200 Okay, wrapping up the show here voice is getting a little sore. 653 00:49:30,200 --> 00:49:35,900 So might Might have to cut these all little short. 654 00:49:35,900 --> 00:49:40,400 And the first thing, the first team here, I'm going to talk 655 00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:46,300 through Is Carolina Panthers. I'm guessing cam is going to 656 00:49:46,300 --> 00:49:50,900 start again. He got pulled late in the game 657 00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:54,300 against the Dolphins this past week. 658 00:49:55,400 --> 00:50:01,100 He started and only completed five passes on 21 attempts at 24 659 00:50:01,100 --> 00:50:04,200 percent completion rate, which is just abysmal. 660 00:50:04,600 --> 00:50:07,700 And this is a week after he sort of looked like his old self, had 661 00:50:07,700 --> 00:50:12,800 a 78 percent completion. Percentage the week before 8.5%, 662 00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:19,100 cpoe at thrown two touchdowns 180 yards, fixing 189 yards, 663 00:50:20,900 --> 00:50:24,900 Rusted, 10 times for 46 yards, like you looked like his old 664 00:50:24,900 --> 00:50:29,800 self and then he throws two, picks doesn't even hit 100 yards 665 00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:33,100 passing. Boyd carries the ball three 666 00:50:33,100 --> 00:50:38,200 times, 45 yards and had a negative 42 percent cpoe, which 667 00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:43,700 is just terrible. I don't know if I trust him as a 668 00:50:43,700 --> 00:50:47,700 starter, maybe maybe in DFS especially now that 669 00:50:47,800 --> 00:50:51,700 unfortunately Christian McCaffrey is out for the year, 670 00:50:51,700 --> 00:50:54,600 the Panthers are entering their bye week, but I'm here to help 671 00:50:54,600 --> 00:50:57,900 the code which running back will be the most valuable rest of 672 00:50:57,900 --> 00:51:01,800 season on. The Panthers in my mind is so 673 00:51:01,800 --> 00:51:06,400 hypothesis is that it's a mere Abdullah because he had been 674 00:51:06,400 --> 00:51:09,900 getting some work while Christian McCaffrey was even 675 00:51:09,900 --> 00:51:14,500 back up to a led. The team with a 49%, snap share 676 00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:17,200 this past week. Obviously, McCaffrey left the 677 00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:19,600 game. He did play, but he left the 678 00:51:19,607 --> 00:51:28,900 game early and Abdullah had gotten 13 opportunities in week 679 00:51:28,900 --> 00:51:34,700 10, you only had one in week 11 but then had eight in week, 12 680 00:51:35,500 --> 00:51:40,200 had gotten 13 opportunities in the last game before McCaffrey 681 00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:45,800 returned and again Hubbard to a hover. 682 00:51:46,200 --> 00:51:51,100 The other guys consider hasn't been above a 21% snap share in 683 00:51:51,100 --> 00:51:55,100 each of the last four weeks while Abdullah has been above 684 00:51:55,100 --> 00:51:57,300 20%. Point three of the last four. 685 00:51:57,300 --> 00:52:04,000 So Hubbard again, while McCaffrey was out to start, was 686 00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:07,400 getting double digit opportunities had at least 15 687 00:52:07,400 --> 00:52:11,300 opportunities in each of The last. 688 00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:17,000 Submit, excuse me, agon double-digit, 15 opportunities 689 00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:18,400 in the five deals down McCaffrey. 690 00:52:18,400 --> 00:52:21,800 So there is a Workhorse role to be had. 691 00:52:22,500 --> 00:52:25,800 It will be interesting interesting to see if they do. 692 00:52:27,200 --> 00:52:33,000 Split it a little bit more. Now, without McCaffrey for the 693 00:52:33,000 --> 00:52:39,400 full season. As far as. 694 00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:46,400 Be receivers in the last three weeks without Sam Donald again, 695 00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:49,200 the good thing is that the only two relevant, ones are Robbie 696 00:52:49,200 --> 00:52:52,500 Anderson and DJ more, they're both running around and over 90% 697 00:52:52,500 --> 00:52:53,500 of drawbacks. No. 698 00:52:53,500 --> 00:52:59,100 Other receiver is running a route on more than 50% of drop 699 00:52:59,100 --> 00:53:03,100 backs. So they're the only to consider 700 00:53:03,100 --> 00:53:08,400 DJ more in this week. 12 game at 151 are yards, which was his 701 00:53:08,800 --> 00:53:12,200 first time. Over 100 Area Arts since week 7 702 00:53:12,200 --> 00:53:16,800 and in fact had 10 targets which was also the first time since 703 00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:19,900 week seven that he's had 10 targets. 704 00:53:20,300 --> 00:53:23,500 So I think things are still looking good. 705 00:53:23,500 --> 00:53:26,600 For PK more obviously has not had the touchdown production 706 00:53:27,300 --> 00:53:32,300 hasn't been super efficient from a fantasy perspective, but as 707 00:53:32,300 --> 00:53:35,800 over 14, people are points in the last two weeks after three 708 00:53:35,800 --> 00:53:38,700 straight games below 10, PPR points. 709 00:53:38,700 --> 00:53:42,700 So Really hope that I'm continuing to plug DJ more into 710 00:53:42,700 --> 00:53:45,900 lineups. Robbie Anderson, maybe save that 711 00:53:45,900 --> 00:53:51,500 fur, Leone and friends. But I don't know Anderson over 712 00:53:51,500 --> 00:53:54,300 the last three games. Averaging, five point three 713 00:53:54,300 --> 00:53:56,500 targets per game has an 18 percent Target share. 714 00:53:56,500 --> 00:54:01,000 So without CMC that could open opportunities for Anderson. 715 00:54:01,900 --> 00:54:09,300 To make some more noise. The other team that I'm going to 716 00:54:09,300 --> 00:54:16,000 talk about here is the Chicago Bears, Justin fields, did not 717 00:54:16,000 --> 00:54:18,900 start any adult and started on Thanksgiving. 718 00:54:18,900 --> 00:54:24,800 I'm not sure who's going to start in the game, this upcoming 719 00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:28,200 Sunday. But either way, I'm, I'm still 720 00:54:28,200 --> 00:54:32,700 leaning away from him. The one thing that I think would 721 00:54:32,700 --> 00:54:36,700 entice me with Justin Fields, is that in weeks 5 through 9, the 722 00:54:36,700 --> 00:54:39,900 five games. before he got injured he was averaging, 46 723 00:54:39,900 --> 00:54:45,500 rushing yards per game, so that's that's really good. 724 00:54:45,700 --> 00:54:49,700 He was averaging yet a 10.5 yard average depth of Target in those 725 00:54:49,700 --> 00:54:52,600 games as well and was actually sort of slinging. 726 00:54:52,600 --> 00:54:55,300 He was only one or two key bees Sydney. 727 00:54:55,300 --> 00:55:00,100 What the average depth of Target over 10 yards in that span. 728 00:55:00,100 --> 00:55:03,300 But Chicago still leaning very run-heavy with a negative five 729 00:55:03,300 --> 00:55:07,300 percent pass rate over expectation and that has greatly 730 00:55:07,300 --> 00:55:16,500 benefited, David Montgomery. Who has come back to Sydney, 731 00:55:17,700 --> 00:55:22,000 who's come back to a Workhorse role has been above eighty, four 732 00:55:22,000 --> 00:55:27,000 percent of snaps the last three weeks that he's been back is 733 00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:31,900 averaging. Sidney 17 opportunities for game 734 00:55:31,900 --> 00:55:36,600 has 85 percent of the Bears backfield touches and is running 735 00:55:36,600 --> 00:55:41,500 around on 64% of Dropbox, which is incredible. 736 00:55:41,500 --> 00:55:46,000 So David Montgomery, plug back into lineups. 737 00:55:46,000 --> 00:55:51,700 Hopefully can get some easy matchups to take care of down 738 00:55:51,700 --> 00:55:55,800 the stretch. Looking at the past catchers 739 00:55:55,800 --> 00:56:01,600 finally Darla Mooney looks like a wide receiver one which he is 740 00:56:01,600 --> 00:56:05,100 so fun to watch watching him on Thanksgiving, just looks 741 00:56:05,400 --> 00:56:07,200 phenomenal. Sort of reminded me a little bit 742 00:56:07,200 --> 00:56:12,100 of Michael Gallup but I hope gets a more expanded role then 743 00:56:12,100 --> 00:56:15,600 that over the last four weeks, he's averaging 130 Area. 744 00:56:15,600 --> 00:56:21,000 Arts per game is averaging nine point, eight targets per game. 745 00:56:22,100 --> 00:56:27,600 As to receiving touchdowns at 31 percent Target share, 0.69 746 00:56:27,600 --> 00:56:34,200 Whoppers running around a 90% of drawbacks has over 17. 747 00:56:34,200 --> 00:56:39,700 PPR points in each of his last three games and at least a dozen 748 00:56:39,700 --> 00:56:43,200 people are points in five of his last six games. 749 00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:48,100 So just absolutely phenomenal. If you he's one of the I don't 750 00:56:48,100 --> 00:56:51,700 know if I consider him a week winner but he is certainly 751 00:56:51,900 --> 00:56:57,400 bolstering those teams that drafted him late Alan Robinson, 752 00:56:57,400 --> 00:57:01,700 hasn't played each of the last two weeks, but again, I'm not 753 00:57:03,200 --> 00:57:06,700 Probably not starting him when he does return. 754 00:57:07,000 --> 00:57:09,400 The only other guy that I want to talk about, in this passing 755 00:57:09,400 --> 00:57:14,000 attack is Cole commit who had 11 Targets on Thanksgiving. 756 00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:21,100 That was a season high for him. He also ran around and 86% of 757 00:57:21,500 --> 00:57:27,000 drawbacks, which was his second highest Mark of the season and 758 00:57:27,100 --> 00:57:30,800 has now scored at least 14, PPR points in two of the last three 759 00:57:30,800 --> 00:57:33,200 games. His The one game he didn't, he 760 00:57:33,200 --> 00:57:39,400 had only to PR points. So that's not super great. 761 00:57:39,900 --> 00:57:45,900 And Jimmy, Graham is still involved, which is Still just 762 00:57:45,900 --> 00:57:49,700 frustrating like I don't know just think about for a second. 763 00:57:49,700 --> 00:57:51,800 The fact that Jimmy Graham, it's a no-trade clause. 764 00:57:53,300 --> 00:57:55,500 Like that's that's that's kind of bizarre. 765 00:57:55,500 --> 00:58:00,000 But anyway, getting back to comec has at least six Targets 766 00:58:00,000 --> 00:58:04,800 in four of his last five games, which is really solid, and it's 767 00:58:04,800 --> 00:58:07,500 starting to look like the breakout tight end. 768 00:58:07,500 --> 00:58:11,500 That I think a lot of people expected. 769 00:58:11,500 --> 00:58:14,300 I don't see here. Coca met his one. 770 00:58:14,500 --> 00:58:21,500 Routes on over 70% of drop backs in five of the last six games 771 00:58:21,500 --> 00:58:24,700 here. So really coming on strong here. 772 00:58:25,200 --> 00:58:28,900 Looks like might be a favorite Target of dressing field or or 773 00:58:28,900 --> 00:58:33,300 any dog whoever is behind Center here. 774 00:58:33,300 --> 00:58:36,400 So good for him. Love to see that. 775 00:58:36,400 --> 00:58:39,900 Hopefully, when Robinson returns, he does a little bit of 776 00:58:39,900 --> 00:58:45,400 something, but you never know. it's certainly been a, not a 777 00:58:45,400 --> 00:58:51,200 great season for him, but it's been a great season for us, has 778 00:58:51,200 --> 00:58:54,500 been a great season for you. Thank you for tuning in. 779 00:58:54,500 --> 00:58:58,900 Remember to tune into the show tomorrow at 9:15 p.m. 780 00:58:58,900 --> 00:59:01,300 Eastern. I'll be back here. 781 00:59:01,600 --> 00:59:06,600 Same time next week. Subscribe to the YouTube become 782 00:59:06,600 --> 00:59:12,900 a Ship chasing member and we'll see you next week.