It's we too. We have literally doubled our
sample size. All of our charts are twice as
actionable. Our takeaways are twice as
accurate. This is stat chasing.
Oh my God, I'm so sorry. Roll me in.
Pat Fryer homo this. Is why This is why I'm hot
Anita. Hand job fix your site.
Jamar and also play Chase. You can't handle the heat.
It looks like we're. Finally, at this point, you're
right. Just like NFL offenses in Week
One, are you? Were too quick.
Yeah, we knew I was. Sharing that we were going live
everywhere and then as soon as I finish, I'm like, shit, I gotta
do that. I gotta roll the clip.
Well, I just saw we're live and I was like, all right, I guess
we're going. But hey, welcome to week two,
everybody. Thank you for joining us.
We've got some real fun charts here that will be taking you
through this week. We're going to try not to go for
a full 2 1/2 push in three hours.
I think we're the goal is a tight 90.
So we've we've done our homework, we've prepped up.
Drico and I are ready to take you through all of these charts,
pointing out the most relevant pieces of data and trying to
give you some actual takeaways for your leagues.
And without further ado, let's let's go ahead and dive into
those. Charts yeah let's let's oh and
present there we go and so yeah at just just to intro everybody
to this at quarterback chart that we're talking about here
and this is it scales adjusted yards per attempt which it's
like yards per attempt throwing and but it rewards touchdowns
and it punishes interceptions. And and actually some it does
that roughly on the, on the scale of I believe win
probability. It tries to like it tries to
scale that to to win probability and for attempt and then on the
other access we have a touchdown rate.
And so really you've got it on the right hand side.
You've got the the quarterbacks who've been thrown really,
really efficiently. And then we also have on the
vertical axis touchdown rate. And so you can see sort of
quarterbacks who have either they've thrown for lots of
touchdowns and possibly more touchdowns than their yardage
and sort of like warrants. And then you have a quarterbacks
who've thrown efficiently and perhaps thrown less touchdowns.
Than than you would expect given their yardage toes and and so
those quarterbacks I guess possible possible upward
regression candidates yeah good good summary here.
I I just had a thought. I really hadn't compared these
two stats before I looked at how they're calculated in comparison
but for adjusted yards per attempt that's going to be like
directionally the same as EPA right?
Like something that's a positive adjusted yards for a template is
going to be a positive EPA. Yeah.
Yeah, you're right. I said win probability, it's EPA
and it does it roughly. Yeah, roughly with the same
waiting. Like obviously it can't do
everything because it's a more straightforward adjustment than
EPA, which knows where they are on the fields.
But it's sort of trying to translate EPA per attempt into a
yardage number to kind of make it more easier.
Comprehend. Easy.
More intuitive. OK, good.
Good explanation there. When I when I first put this
chart together, there were a couple guys that stood out to
me. I'm gonna start with guys that
are popping really well on the chart where they they have to
come back down to earth, right? And the first one that's like
clear as day is Jordan Love. I mean, he's been super
efficient. He's thrown 3 touchdowns each
game, but he is not throwing enough yards or enough pass
attempts for this to be sustainable at all, right?
They've just been really efficient.
So I don't think this, you know, nearly 12%, I think it's like
11, 1/2% touchdown rate is going to stick for Jordan Love.
That being said, when you see these guys with this crazy
efficiency, this is something I would say that Jordan Love is
going to finish the season very close to Brock Purdy and like
what they are for fantasy, right.
I think that Brock Purdy comes up a little bit.
I think Jordan Love comes down a little bit and they kind of meet
in the middle because they both are are just going to be in
offenses that are more efficient than they should be just because
of you know, good, good scheming.
But that was that was the first one I saw.
Did you have any other guys in the good take away category that
you wanted to touch on Drico and?
Yeah I mean obviously I think the most obvious one is is your
boy CJ Stroud where you you you called I think you called last
week that he's gonna win somebody a million maker and for
I think for a rookie to come out in the first two games and to be
on the right hand side of the chart even though the touchdowns
aren't there has I I mean that looks super positive super
bullish where and if he if he's trying for good yardage and.
The touchdown rate is low on on that sort of like a lowish
sample size and again it's first two NFL games that that seems
super bullish for CJ both CJ Stroud and and the receivers in
that in that offense. Yeah, I mean CJ Stroud is fourth
in the league in total passing yards right now so he's he's
kind of cooking and they're they're letting him throw.
He has 91 attempts, so the Houston is not hiding their
rookie quarterback. Where on the other side of the
coin you have Bryce Young, you can look at him.
He, he and Danny Dimes kind of swapped positions on where they
were on the chart last week. Bryce Young does not look like
someone you want to have on any basketball teams.
Doesn't look like someone that you want to play in fantasy you.
I mean for the foreseeable future you don't really want to
touch the Caroline offense. It's not going to produce very
much. They're they're not letting him
do very much and they just don't look like a terribly productive
offense. So that one's a stay away.
But really interesting to me, how drastically different those
two rookies are looking for fantasy.
Especially because I I think that at the, you know, during
the offseason people might have even flipped that around and
said they have higher hopes for Bryce Young and CJ Stroud.
I was I I was a little bit more positive on Bryce Young than
Stroud and mainly because I thought Young is a bit more of a
threat as a rusher and and he has.
He has added some points with his legs but just not not nearly
enough with how anemic and he's in and I think.
Honestly, at this point and then I'm just saying he needs to run
a lot to to produce is is it? It does seem like the only kind
of clear cut way for him to be a productive honesty starter.
Guys I wanted to touch on that moved in the right direction
this last week. Gino Smith.
I don't think anyone was all terribly concerned after a poor
week 1 showing from Gino. He kind of got back on the
horse. I played a lot of Gino and GPP's
this week and it it went pretty well for me.
Needed to have them with Locket though.
Other guys that are right next to Gino on the chart that were
part of that whole late round quarterback thesis for this
offseason and best ball. Sam Howell and Desmond Ritter
both showed pretty much everything that you wanted to
see out of them if you were drafting them in best ball.
Sam Howe, I think was 299 yards passing, which is just you
really, you really love to see that.
Both Ritter and Howell showed a little with their legs as well.
It's like week two was, hey, This is why we were drafting
these guys late and thought that they were reasonable picks for
best ball. So that was super encouraging.
The other one that's near them on the chart that to me looks
like a potential eruption spot is Lamar Jackson.
I wanna, I wanna get ahead of this and say that Week 3 is the
Lamar Jackson explosion game. He does.
I, you know, if you look at Lamar's production profile
historically, he does this kind of stuff where he'll just have
some OK games. It's not like it was a bad game
for him this week by any means. But I I think that week three
against what is on paper, one of the worst defenses in the league
in the Colts, and they've played, They've definitely
played better than they look on paper.
But I think that if the Ravens really play to their full
potential, you could get a huge week from Lamar here.
And he also, you can see from the size of his data point here
that he's still adding a lot with his legs, even though
they're not calling designed rushes.
And that's honestly, that's what I want.
Because what he's doing when he's scrambling is he's taking
place where otherwise there's not a ton to be had there
throwing the ball and he's creating where, you know, a less
mobile quarterback might just have to toss it away.
You're really this type of scheme for Lamar can give you
the best of both worlds and really maximizes overall
production. So Lamar is my my Early Flag
plant for Week 3. So when we're we're, we're
beating a slow cast to the punch.
Stop chasing. Is the first look stroke the
earliest first look show in the industry for DFS Takes Lamar
Jackson for million Maker confirmed the.
One note, sorry, just before we go too much on one note on that
Jordan Love, who we touched on earlier and I just I just did
the mat and if you remove his touchdowns and he just look at
straight yards, pretend for Jordan Love he'd be out of
seven. So honestly that's still seems
like positive like definitely like he he's not a bad passer
but clearly not it doesn't seem like a God tier like you know
he's gonna eviscerate the air at all season player that's that's
really good context for the data and that that seems consistent
with how I feel he's gonna end up on the season.
Him and Perdy will be right in right in that same range.
You know bottom bottom end QV ones on their good weeks and you
know serviceable QV twos. The other thing though, with
Jordan Love, just a wart to add to that profile, the attempts
are really low. Both both weeks the attempts are
low. Same with Perry, the attempts
are. 30 and 27, which yeah, for fantasy production.
For overall production. It's not great especially.
Yeah, I mean, maybe some of that is them having a lead and, but
it's still like it does feel very 49 and quarterback esque.
Yeah. Can you talk me out of Russell
Wilson? Because Russ has looked pretty
productive for fantasy. I from the bit of rust that I
watched he he doesn't look fantastic.
He's not a world beater, but he still does rust things.
You know that play action shot to Nims or is like yeah this is,
I mean Sean Payton's always done a really good job of getting the
the best out of his players and playing to their strengths.
That is the Russell Wilson strength.
Like let him throw up the moon ball, like deep shot and just
absolutely drop it on a guy 50 yards down the field.
If you can have Russ do that in a couple spots a week, he's
definitely viable for fantasy. Yeah, and I think definitely
viable for fantasy and trying touchdowns.
And obviously we're excited about Mims, him having a big day
despite only 6 snaps and 1. Russell Wilson is always a good
note on on a caveat of this chart is that.
It's per attempt so it's it. It's not per drop back so it's
sort of like it wrote this chart rewards and quarterbacks who
will stand in the pocket and and throw deep but then also take
sacks. So I I should note that he he's
taken 9 sacks this year on let's say 8080 Dropbox and so.
That's that's only a small that that that that probably takes
them from like 88.1 to like closer to like let's say let's
call it just over 7 and so this this this is always a chart that
like makes Russell Wilson look it's hot better than he is and
but when when you are targeting pocket passers you do want you
want guys who trophy. You want big plays?
You want touchdowns? So definitely I think when when
you're getting, when you're getting cheap pocket pass or
pricing for Russell Wilson you I think you can win in a big way.
I think though correct me if I'm wrong we're not I I I wouldn't
be high on on on like expensive Russell Wilson like actually
when I expensive I'm talking like seventh round like that
that that feels pretty gross. No I I think Russ was a great
price this whole offseason. He yeah was he was going late
because the the markets have gotten more efficient in best
fall over the years. But I was I was actually just
today I was taking some notes for an article I wanna write
this next offseason on stuff that the market still is really
stupid at. And one of those things is did
you hurt me last year? If you hurt me last year, sorry,
you're just you're not going to get to an efficient price
because I'm still snake bit. So that was one of the things
that I noted dovetailing off your sacks conversation from
Russell Wilson. Does that mean that Justin
Fields and Deshaun Watson are even worse than they look on
this chart? Because both of you guys love to
take sacks too. Yeah.
And anybody who holds the ball and take sacks and will that
will be even will be worse on this chart.
So it indicates OK and I mean I don't think it's like.
It's not quite fancy relevant, but it is relevant for the
receivers that you think. I'm getting one of the most
efficient quarterbacks in the league on a per attempt and it's
like okay. Well per drop back it's maybe a
bit closer to average for the strong efficiency guys.
One one last one I wanted to point out before we go to the
next chart here. Matt Stafford is being punished
for his just he he ran poor on touchdowns.
Kyron Williams is vacuuming up touchdowns these first couple
weeks. If Matt Stafford throws a couple
touchdowns he is going to look insane.
Especially I mean this chart. One of the I think we might need
to add another QB chart for volume related stuff.
But one thing this chart does not pick up is the absolutely
absurd amount of volume. Matt Stafford has 93 pass
attempts through two games. You know, he CJ Stroud is right
behind him with 91. But you know, Stafford and
Stroud are just slinging it. So that's, you know, if if
you're going to play a pocket passer, a statue quarterback,
they need to be chucking it. And over 45 attempts a game is
is what you want from a guy like Stafford.
Yeah, that that makes sense as well and.
Yeah, and I I think, I think when you're talking about the
pocket passers like they're they're a little bit more
volatile than than guys who have consistent rushing production.
But they're they're single week ceilings can be really high
because if they have a really good week as a passer, it's it's
gone, it's they're going to score points.
So when you have those volatile players.
You definitely you you want the cheap, you want the cheap
prices. With them, you it gets a little
unless you tink their mahomes, it gets real.
I think it gets really tricky when you're paying up for that
sort of profile. Last sorry, I said last thing
with Stafford, last question, the Russell Wilson rushing.
He had like 54 rushing yards this week.
I know a lot of it came on one big scramble that he had, but
what? What do you make of that?
Is he going to have just a little bit more rushing, Not not
back to like old Russell Wilson when he was rushing for, you
know, 600 yards a season. But is that back in the in the
arsenal a little bit here? I mean it it's we we definitely
don't have the sample size to say it and if most of his it
sounds like most of his rushing is from that one attempt and
but. If, if, if, if he could, if he's
still able to do 40 yard or whatever was rushing attempts,
that's definitely interesting. Like I I don't recall Tom Brady
or Peyton Manning ever having a 40 yard rushing attempts so that
being that being in his arsenal at all is definitely
interesting. And yeah, I I I agree with you.
Like the the the, the days of old doesn't seem to be there,
but. And if you have some probability
of getting like adding like four to five points from, like big
runs, like, that's super interesting.
All right. I think if we're gonna keep it
to a tight 90, we gotta get to the next chart here.
And so whatever reason, this one always is just a tiny bit too
large. We're gonna need to zoom out
just a bit. But this is our RB snaps and
usage chart. What this chart is good at is
it's telling us who's got specific roles on a team.
And so, you know, reading from the top down, it's gonna be the
guys that are on the field the most.
We've got. Our yellow is the routes that
they ran, green is the rush attempts, blue is the pass
blocks. And then Gray is the run blocks
and I kind of look at as far as the colors, what's the most
desirable? Yellow, if they're actually
converting that into targets is really valuable.
Green is the next most valuable. Blue is actually fine in my
book. If a guy's on the field pass
blocking it just means he's he's probably going to be able to be
on the field more in passing situations which we want.
And then Gray is is not good. I don't.
I don't really want my guys to have a lot of Gray on their
chart. Well I mean we we want guys who
are on the field all the time either way and but I I think
blue is interesting in that like if if somebody is pass blocking
a lot it means they're trusted and and but yeah it obviously
they're not they're not snaps that can be converted into
points and then obviously this chart is it's on the scale of
percentages so. The more the more it's for
example, let's say Zack Moss that that's just shy.
That's about 3035% of his team of the offenses and plays where
Rush attempts for Zack Moss. So Zack, where is there anybody
here who who's kind of a surprise to you or?
I it shouldn't be a surprise after last week but Kyron
Williams has an absolutely elite role.
You know he he's not just from measurable standpoint.
He's not particularly talented. He he doesn't look you know so
so he he looks fine. He looks totally serviceable in
the field but the role is so good that it literally doesn't
matter. He's just going to.
He will be out there scoring fantasy points for you.
The one that I noticed as well, that was a guy didn't put up a
great fantasy stat line, but Josh Jacobs usage is still
really good. He'll show up on the next chart
as well, when we look at efficiency, numbers and expected
fantasy points. But just for anyone that just
looked at the box score and was like, Oh my gosh, Jacobs was
terrible. I mean, they were, they were
getting shellacked by the Bills. And you can see that reflected
in his past blocking numbers too.
They just, they needed to throw a lot.
And at least he stayed on the field.
He you know yeah I I I noted in in in gratias stealing signals.
Sorry. Gretsch noted in his ceiling
signals that the the Raiders had a really low play count like
they didn't have very many plays at all.
So he he he can have a big percentage that that probably
doesn't translate to the box score.
But I I I don't think you really expect the Raiders to have like
an abysmally low play count. So it it goes to your point that
his his role is still really valuable the the the points just
haven't been there yet. One that one that stuck out to
me on the the negative side is Damien Pierce.
I I know it's only two weeks in and I know the Texas offensive
line has had, you know, a lot of injuries.
They're they're not anywhere close to full strength.
But Damien Pierce, I I feel pretty confident in saying
already that. You know the fifth round or
sixth round? He was mostly in the fifth
round. I want to say in in best fall
drafts. But that 5th, 5th, 6th round
price tag for him? Not looking good.
All the hallmarks of a dead zone back.
Yeah, 100% that is. That's the dead zone back
archetype right there. Him and him and not super
confident that they're getting all the snaps and then yeah, I
suppose they they don't get all the snaps and then they don't
really play well with them either.
Speaking of them players that the market might get
overconfident in them, in them getting all, all the all the
snaps, all the usage is there. Do you think there's any risk
that Kyron Williams that going forward do you think do you
think he's like solid in that role now or is this something
where you know it's the rounds they could get weird and it
let's say the resurrection comes back and people drop them in the
fifth round or something like that on the roll and then is
there any risk that that gets rope pulled?
I think there's a small amount of risk stemming from just his
lack of talent. Not, not to say anything bad
about Kyron Williams, but I I think that.
You can plug in. You know, you could plug in Zach
Moss into that role in the Rams backfield.
And yeah, Zach Moss is also not a particularly talented player
for NFL standards, but you know, he's still gonna produce.
So I I think the risk that you're looking at is just a
talent risk. Like maybe you get someone else
on that depth chart that ascends.
Maybe you get a a Zach Evans, you know, that somehow works his
way out of the field. That would be my only concern
but I do think the Rams really like Kyron Williams.
So I I would say you can operate with relative confidence that
Kyron's going to maintain that role as long as he's able to
stay healthy. He the other concern is he is a
smaller back he's he's 190 something so the amount of work
he's getting is pretty significant for someone his
size. So that would those would be
kind of the two prongs of my concern for Kyron Williams.
But overall I think you got to operate with decent confidence
that he's just going to be the guy going forward and and and
I'm just looking at it here and he had a even like last week he
ran 80% of the roots or or week two he Kyren Williams ran 80% of
the Roots. In week one when Cammakers was
active it was still 72% and then week 115 rush attempts week to
14 rush attempts. So just I I guess reiterate that
does feel like something where that's his role.
I I I don't think I I I don't think there is much risk to that
if they if they really like him as the passing down back like
and and they had him and they had him running roots even when
Cam Makers was was active that that does feel like something
pretty sustainable. Yeah, I I agree.
I mean you can operate with pretty strong confidence.
He's the guy going forward. Just those little bits of risk
that I mentioned. Another another back on here
that I wanted to point out. Derrick Henry had a better
scoring week for Fantasy this week, his usage still you know a
little lower. We're definitely seeing Taja
Spears. Taja Spears is is getting.
Snaps He's He's on the field, so he's really interesting to me as
maybe someone later on in the season that comes on, or in the
event that the Titans just start losing a lot of games, like
having him be more involved in the passing game definitely
looks promising cuz Henry is not running very many routes.
That was another one I noticed. The other one was.
AJ Dillon, even though he got obviously a lot more work with
Aaron Jones out this week and and this data is aggregating
week one and week two. So that's why you're not seeing,
you know, AJ Dillon shoot up the chart here but AJ Dillon didn't
do a ton with it, so I'm not you know, once, once you get Aaron
Jones healthy, I don't, I don't really think you're gonna see AJ
Dillon be able to steal so, so much work from Aaron Jones.
He just doesn't look great. And one thing I think that's
interesting about Henry and Henry, whereas it used to be in
in prior years, he was just getting like a really high
snapshot, really high Snapshore and OK.
And even though he didn't get a lot of passing work, he was able
to be so efficient as a rusher and get so much of it that still
sort of got there. And then it was last year and
the year before where you had games where he was, he had that
and then he also had targets. And that's how you got, that's
how you got this sort of like Derek Henry legendary upside
sort of stuff. But I think especially as the
snaps come down and he gets older, like for him to maintain
and keep the efficiency and he needs to like continue to be
productive, like obviously exceptional player that that
does seem like even even bigger risk than than we imagined, like
you're still getting the points now, but definitely risky.
I've I've got a fun question for you.
Who who are you taking earlier in you know you go on
DraftKings. They've got their Week 3 best
ball tournaments right now where you can draft for the rest of
the season. Travis Etn or Derrick Henry.
Oh, Travis. ETN.
Like, yeah, I, I, I, I I made them.
I made us put ETN as as the sneaky Orbi one last year.
But go ahead, hit me with some more.
I got it. I got another one for you.
Jamir Gibbs or Derrick Henry? Oh, my God.
I mean, I think I'm a fraud if I don't say yes, don't say Gibbs.
But it doesn't it for weak tree and on.
Yeah I I I think it is Gibbs just because I know his his
route share really got up there this week and even though like
you get you get some of the gripes of like Dan Campbell oh
his his root cause to pick six and then even and and they've
been hesitant to play on. I just think when when you and
take him into account how back weighted fantasy football is to
the last couple of weeks of the season like it it I think at
least it's there's a good probability and that Gibbs is is
decently outscoring Henry at that point I I'm I'm curious so
would would you would you have gone the other way.
No, I I agree with you on both those.
I've got the hardest one so far for you here though, OK.
And I've got one more after it Kenneth Walker or Derek Henry
and I I I think I think I'm kind of Walker there too and and it's
because very similar are are types where they're not really
they're not really past catchers and you just you need the you
need the Russian efficiency to get there and I think this might
this definitely says more about Henry than than moving Henry
down than than pushing Walker into like the third round or
something like that And because I guess you still do have them
his roots came down cool a decent amount last week So
there's still there's still some risks there and and and Walker's
sort of usage even though the talent is very strong and but
definitely if I'm being asked to make efficiency bets on a back I
do feel much better at Walker. OK.
Last one here. Brian Robinson.
Oh my God. And if I want I honestly I I
think I'm I am Henry there and just because he is the it's
still like obviously older Derek Henry.
Derek Henry losing snaps but still Derek Henry.
I still, I think that that he's just such an elite talent, even
if he is older and Brian Robinson, he's still in like a
split back share backfield and so yeah, yeah, not not willing
to go there yet. Yeah, I I come down on the same
side as you do for all of those. You know what?
I I think Brian Robinson is, though.
Brian Robinson is what all of the Naji drafters thought that
Naji was, right. That's what Brian Robinson is.
He's like what Naji would be if Naji was halfway decent, right?
But Naji is not. My The funniest play I got to
watch of this week two of football was when Naji reversed
direction in the backfield and ran like 60 yards for a 20 yard
gain and he was running out of gas at the line of scrimmage.
By the time he got back to the line of scrimmage, he was like
fully gassed. He did manage to break it for
like 20 yards, but it was that was a a really fun one to watch.
Yeah, yeah. And I saw that the and the Roto
world headline that he erupt for 43 yards.
Yeah, that that's that's down bad.
Anyone else on this RB chart or should we go on to the guys
getting less usage? I think it's, I think it's
somewhat interesting that Moss Anders is still pretty high up
here ma'am, but obviously that's what the caveat that we have
that grave concerns with the offense that he's on.
And you know what? Chuba got 5 targets this week.
You can Fact Check me on that one, but I believe if memory
serves, Chuba got 5 targets and I wanna say Sanders got two, one
or two. So I definitely see the work
being split over the course of the season.
I think that Miles Sanders, if he is gonna be getting more
work, is getting the low calorie stuff.
And I I think a lot of people say like Miles Sanders is a bad
back. I don't think he's as bad as
guys like Naji or you know, some of the lower talent guys.
I don't think he's terrible, plus NFL talent.
Yeah, for for sure. He's a plus NFL talent.
I also I think Chuba is like. Replacement level talent as
well. So I don't think he they're both
better than Jamal Williams. You know, like, yeah, yeah, for
sure. So I think it's gonna trend to
being more split, but I do think that Chuba's getting more of the
work in the passing game, which that's what I want in that
offense. They're gonna be bad.
They're gonna lose a lot of games, yeah.
And I I like it. Just before we move on.
I do like seeing that Bijon, even though he's splitting with
Algier more than than the market was expecting, do like to see
that his sort of like productive snack rate is around 60%.
That is like it's just it's not it's like it's just a step below
that sort of like second tier of work horseish running backs and
and definitely feels like as the season goes on that he he could
he he could add his strong efficiency to our state.
He's already ready. Bijon is already strongly
efficient, but he could also add in perhaps a bit more snap share
to get even more production. Yeah, I agree.
And just from from watching Bijon, there will not be a game
this season where Bijon Robinson is not the best football player
on the field at all times like that dude is insane.
He moves in. There are multiple times where
I'm watching Bijon run where he? Is moving out of the way of a
tackler and he's still moving forward.
He is. He is moving like sideways and
forward so suddenly, at the same time, I my brain, like, can't
comprehend that it's happening in the way that it's happening.
He looks, he looks like the best player, hands down.
He's very so. I know I've seen some talk.
Dot CMC is like should be the 101 and are you there and then
where would you put at bijon after that?
This this sounds weird to say. After two weeks of the 49ers
just keeping Christian McCaffrey on the field the entire time, I
don't think that his usage is gonna be as sticky as it is.
Yeah, I think that, you know, that game against the Rams was
very close. They could have lost that game
easily, you know, if it wasn't for that Kyron Williams, you
know, interception. I think that you definitely
could have seen the 49ers lose to the Rams there.
And then in week one, like, yeah, they were.
They were beaten on the Steelers, but it was week one
and Chris McCaffrey was feeling good.
He's fully healthy right now. He doesn't have, like, the
Knicks and bruises that you accumulate over the course of
the season. I don't think this usage stands,
and I know I believe it was Ben who wrote about this in Stealing
Signals. Something to the effect of the
49ers just decided, hey, Elijah Mitchell, you're the odd man
out. We have too many talented guys
to get the ball distributed to all of them, so you're just
never going to see the field. And I think that's going to be
true when the games are close, but when they play games that
are out of hand, or even when Christian McCaffrey is just a,
you know, a little bit nicked up, I think we're not going to
see this usage hold. And that's not to say that he's
not a an incredibly strong first round pick, but just that you
know it's the 101. Like I'm still pretty
confidently taking Justin Jefferson 101 and I also think
I'm taking Tyree kill 102 but then Christian McCaffrey is is
probably the back that you have to take there and then in that
next tier I think it's got to be Bijon, right?
I can't. Yeah.
You you have anyone different? Yeah I I was I was leading you
to say that I I that I was saying like I was I was I was
basically trying to get you to say yeah Bijon is after that and
I completely agree and I I think it's somewhat interesting that
so like this elite, elite, elite usage for CMC it's only like
it's 20 carries a game and then what is it?
We're looking at 3 1/2 targets a game.
So like obviously very very good and but if you're if you're
thinking like oh what's what's the best what's the best role in
the NFL like obviously 25 touches a game is, is like it's
pretty workhorse horseish. But I would bet if you got it,
if if they get into games where like there's more, there's more
touches for the box than 25 ish, then they're they're definitely
bringing in Elijah Mitchell. Like, I think part of this
percentage thing is that they just haven't gotten into, they
haven't got to a stage where like, OK, we've given them too
much touches. We need, we need to give this
guy a breeder. Yeah, I agree.
But if you don't have anyone else, we can move on to the to
the backup chart. Yeah, let's go to the backup
chart. We're we're gonna try and stay
on schedule tonight, folks. So I think you're I actually I
think we're on good schedule. Excellent, excellent.
Here on this second chart, there's a couple guys here where
like Justice Hill, Gus Edwards, they both are.
They will eventually work their way towards that starter chart.
It's just still the lag from Week 1 where Dobbins got
everything in the first half, basically, other than Justice
coming in and getting a couple touches.
And then in the second-half it was Gus and Justice.
But those guys will work their way up.
Other guys that I fully anticipate to work their way
onto that first chart. You're gonna see Gibbs work his
way onto the first chart. With the Montgomery injury,
you're gonna see Warren slowly work his way onto the first
chart. Just because we got, we watched
Naji play football for two weeks like the Bears.
Backfield is interesting to me. I.
I think that there's a chance that Herbert and Rochon
consolidate everything between the two of them.
I mean, you had to down to Foreman, inactive this last
week. I don't know if that's going to
be consistent going forward, but if there's a chance they
consolidate it. But that offense doesn't look
great, so I don't know how desirable you know either of
them are for fantasy. I I mean, if I had to pick one,
it's Rochon, just since he's a rookie running back.
His ticker should be trending up over the course of the season.
What do you make of Jovante Williams usage so far and how do
you feel about him going forward this season?
And so obviously he's playing off the ACL, so he is being an
Angel long and I think. As long as like he's he's
continuing for like progressing through his rehab.
I I think that that something that sort of like missed a
little bit or are not communicated well.
Is that like part of the rehab from these knee injuries is
actually playing in the game like the the way the way that
people come back from injuries is by getting stronger, by
getting more stamina, by by by putting stresses on on that
injury and so and. He he's sort of like still in
his his rehab and then once once he gets a couple of games under
his belt assuming and no setbacks or anything like that
would definitely expect better at him to get into the starter
chart. And I think if you if you have
the outlook that the the the Broncos are going to be a
somewhat decent offense. Then we'll he will.
He should be a productive back I think though if you were
drafting Jovante in the sixth round, it does.
Unless unless we see this again a good bit better soon.
I think this is sort of shaping up to be a little disappointing
there and. But if you if you were drafting
him much earlier early in the offseason and then later in the
draft I I I think that this is this is really strong for
Giovante and but it it it's it's also hard it's hard to call just
because his apart from his broken tackle metrics he's never
been particularly efficient so. It is it it it's a tricky I
think it is a tricky 1 where you need you you do need you need
more snap shared on than than you're looking for from breeze
and then you do need his recovery to be good enough where
he can play well. That's cut sort of a wishy washy
answer and but I think I'm I I probably not dropped him in the
6th but happy to drop them in the 8 rounds.
That is how I voted. Yeah.
I think that's a good assessment and that's not wishy washy.
That's the way, like, I know that what a lot of, I don't
think this audience is that way. But I know that what a lot of
people look for in fantasy analysis, they want like those
strong takes or the strong stands, when really what good
analysis is, is what you just did.
You kind of laid out, you know, hey, here's the whole situation.
Here's the pros and cons. Here's how it could break your
way, here's what you're looking for, for it to go well, you
know, here's a reasonable, you know, price range for him.
Right. So, yeah, no, I I agree with
that assessment on Jovante. It's all pretty positive so far.
The way most of my Jovante came in, like round eight, round
nine, you know. Yeah.
And I'm. I'm feeling great about it.
Yeah. For sure the the other guy that
was going in that range of drafts and is right below him on
the charts though. Dalvin Cook.
Woof. I mean I know.
I know it was the Cowboys defense.
And so like for for me, honestly what I'm doing for The Jets this
week is just like just that's a throw away the tape game.
You know, like I'm not to not to be the world's biggest Cowboys
Homer. I'm pretty sure a lot of teams
are gonna have their worst offensive performance against
that defense this year, So I I think you can throw away the
tape there. I mean, it also doesn't help
that Zach Wilson was the quarterback.
That one that's about to. Say, hold on there, Homer.
You've played fucking Zach Wilson.
And what's the other guy? Yeah, done in time.
Zach Wilson and Daniel Jones and and two offensive lines that
have not shown that they've been particularly strong.
But I I do think even though the competition that defenses face
has not been, you know, the highest echelon that the NFL has
to offer, I think that we're getting way more signal than
noise from that defense is, is what I'll say about it.
But no one wants to hear a Cowboys Homer go on about how
this defense is the doomsday defense again.
But what the people do want to hear is about Justice Hill.
Because Justice Hill, while he didn't put up an incredible box
score for you this week, there were some really encouraging
things about the way that the workload was split and most
specifically the way the high value touches were split.
So this is a situation I followed extremely closely as
the resident Justice Hill truther and Justice took
basically a 5545 split. Gus did get work but Gus
basically got a lot of the you know lower calorie carry type
work. Justice out touched him and high
value touches 5 to 1 and the only high value touch Gus did
get was a goal line carry where unfortunately for Justice Hill
he did get stuffed the play right before and then Gus came
in and and cleaned it up and vultured the TVI.
Do think that that that definitely that caps the ceiling
for Justice right he's he's 190 pound something you know
satellite back plus he's not he's not going to be the power
back on the goal line but we did see in week one he is able to
score from you know those Green Zone touches.
I just don't think the you know run up the middles are are going
to be the highest probability for Justice Hill touchdown plays
but overall it was super positive for him.
I do think really what you're looking at though is you're just
looking for in games where the Ravens go crazy, Justice Hill
has multi touchdown upside in his range of outcomes and in
games where the Ravens are behind a lot and having to throw
more, he is squarely the passing back.
So that's that's what you wanted to see.
That was the whole thesis of the play.
So Justice Hills slappies were alive.
And I think the fact that he did get 22 Green Zone touches are
still like he's not dead for a goal line work.
He's just sort of splitting it, yeah.
And but yeah, agreed, agreed. It's definitely the usage and
the situation is better than last week's box score would
indicate. So moving on.
And so we're still on the Orb charts and this is expected
points. So we have a rushing expected
points from rushing on the on the horizontal axis and then
expected points from receiving and and targets on the on the
vertical axis. And so we we'll we have covered
a lot of a lot of these players. But I guess this this sort of
converts it from like oh, when we on the field to like how good
was your opportunity and and how efficient were you with it.
Yeah, absolutely. One thing I do want to add just
as some some clarity to this chart for guys that played week
one but didn't play week two like Austin Eckler, we're only
pulling week one data in here. So that's that's why he still is
where he is. Guys that stood out to me.
I mean, Raheem Moster looks like a very strong pick where he was
going in basketball. Still, the role is just the role
is fantastic. What this really does for me,
like I I'm obviously super excited for the teams where I've
got Rahim mosted on them. What makes me really excited
though is that the runway is starting to get cleared out for
a chain because you've had a couple injuries now you know
you've still got Jeff Wilson on IR with the extremely dubious
comments from the coaches of he could come back this season.
Excuse me? Right.
He might still be alive, but we, yeah, yeah, Salman Achmed got
banged up in the last game. I haven't seen anything specific
about the severity of his injury, but it's starting to
look like we're going to get some a chain opportunity.
He did manage to sneak his way onto the field a little bit in
Week 2. So I think we're we're starting
to see that ramp up for him, which that's really that's what
you need. I would anticipate where he gets
involved first is more in the passing game.
Not that most, it is not a perfectly competent back in the
passing game, but I think that a chain adds a lot more and that
is what we saw from him when he was on the field.
So this just if you take Raheem Moster there and you just remove
his name and put Dolphins running back, that's the way
that I'm looking at it. And so that's a role that I
think is super valuable. It's just an offense.
It's going to score a bunch of points.
You want the running back there, you know?
Should be able to be pretty efficient with it.
And just as well it's Rahim Mostard.
He's 32. It's weak to like, I mean
obviously you hope that he makes a full year and for him as a
player definitely hope that. And but on sort of balance of
probabilities, like it is hard to see him be healthy and
productive the same way he has been true at what is it, three
months? And three plus months of an NFL
season SO1. Easy to see somebody else come
in. One thing you mentioned last
week that I wanted to point out this week is for the size of the
dots you can see up in the top left hand corner we've got the
size reference is that size of the pink dot.
There is zero fantasy points over expected per game, and so
you can look at this in a couple ways.
Number one, guys with a bigger size, they're probably playing a
little bit more efficiently. The touches that they're being
given, they're actually making more out of those than what they
should be worth. The other thing though is if you
get someone who runs super hot on touchdowns, they also will
show up as a larger size. Is that the correct
interpretation to that? So just be wary.
You know not all size is created equal, but like one one that I
see that stands out that is not exciting for me is Damian
Pierce. I mean we touched on it earlier.
Not only is you know, his role much smaller than anticipated,
but his efficiency looks pretty poor.
I mean, he is in that 10 to 15 expected fantasy points band
there, but that's a guy where like here, here's a question.
Neither of these are super exciting backs, but Isaiah
Pacheco or Damian Pierce, Who would you rather have on your
team? And Pacheco and OK.
So I just just on on on the efficiency, so he's been bad on
a yardage efficiency. So last last week he was -4 1/2
at expected points are are over expected points on the yardage
components and then -5.1 on on the TD.
So that's like a negative 9.6. Obviously this is volatile you
don't expect. That that low every, every week,
but really quite per. Sorry, go ahead.
No, no, the the other one that this one I I guess I'm just
going to have to to take the L on this one but Latavius Murray
having a legitimate role beyond being just a camp body for the
Bills is baffling to me. I don't think that Damien Harris
looks bad when he gets on the field but there I I think that
this is probably a really savvy thing for real life football.
Like hey let's take our our two guys that are going to be our
more bruiser type acts except with habeas Murray is involved
in the passing game like pretty pretty good as well but they're
they're just splitting the load between those guys.
So like I it's probably savvy for for real football for
fantasy football. It's pretty frustrating.
I think you you're you're much lower on Damien Harris going
forward again Latavius Murray is 34.
So in the same, you know same way that Raheem most are we
don't really anticipate him having his strongest production
in the back half of the season. I would.
I'd feel the same about Murray. Yeah.
But when I when I'm thinking of Murray, I'm more so thinking of
him with respect to what does this mean for James Cook?
What does this mean for Damien Harris?
So how would you, how would you look for James Cook and Damian
Harris going forward? So, James Cook, Obviously his
yardage has been good, his snack count has been good.
But. Frustrating that there's now two
guys ahead of him on the scene or he's having to.
Not only is is that Josh Allen going to account for a high
percentage of the goal line touchdowns, but having two other
backs that are going to mix in or and potentially play ahead of
them on the on the goal line is. It's definitely frustrating and
I think though. There's probably at least some
probability that and James Cook has maybe a better goal line
role than that we've seen through two weeks.
And like like you mentioned Latavius Marie is 34 and and I
think James Cook he has, he has been a good rusher.
So I I think that he could still like be a good goal line back,
but definitely I think. At least for the season, for the
regular season part of of contests that him for now
looking like that he sort of washed out of the of the goal
and stuff it. It does take out your your
outcomes where okay you took him in the 5th or whatever and now
and and now he's going to be so good that he should he actually
should have been in the second round pick.
So you got it. You got a complete steal, I
think that. And you probably you're you're
not drawing super live to get like this really high advance
rate and but I I don't I don't think like the for the whole
year that his goal line that he's just dead to have a goal
line role and he's just a little bit a little bit blocked to have
enough of one that you need and if you took him in the 5th and
what. I mean I think that he's
definitely someone where you're interested in let's say around
the seventh round. I I think still quite
interesting because he he is getting a lot of non goal line
usage. He has been efficient and so
that's yeah I I think that's about where I'm at on him.
OK I I had one more back I wanted to talk about on this
chart before we move on and that's is there a more like ho
hum he's gonna score his fantasy points back than Ramondre
Stevenson feels right now like doesn't that just feel like yeah
sure I'll take Ramondre and I I you know if you were drafting a
a week three you know best ball team.
Yeah, right now doesn't he probably just goes like fourth
round like I guess I click Ramondre Stevenson here kind of
pick. Yeah.
And I mean, I think Zeke is playing a little bit more than
you're expecting or a little bit more than I was expecting.
Like I knew that he was going to play.
I I didn't quite realize that he was going to play that much.
And but I think that sort of like overall thesis for Ram
Andre where I was drafting, drafting him in the Fort.
And during the offseason I think that's like still sort of very
much in play and and I would and maybe this is hope but I would
hope that the more Zeke plays bad the less he gets played.
So like Reminders World does get bigger.
And then and maybe with some of the more encouraging signs from
from Mac Jones where OK. The the offense doesn't have
enough good players to like make Mac Jones look overall good but
maybe you can keep it going just enough so that there is
something for reminder to work with And but yeah the fact I I
I'm just thinking true now the fact that like it doesn't feel
super live for the New England Patriot offensive overall like
really good that that hurts reminder a bit and but.
Still I I I think still quite interested in the in the four
rounds where I am. Where, where are you?
On on on James Cook are are you are you different?
Me, I think. I think the people that got him
in, like, you know, the 8th, 9th round, yeah, got a really good
price. I think the people that chased
him up to the fifth, they're probably not.
You're not like this. Obviously this week he had great
production. You're you probably, if you
drafted him in the fifth, you're probably telling yourself like,
it's fine, like you look. Yeah, like how good he was.
But I think what you're gonna end up with over the course of
the season is a guy where the 5th is probably like a break
even. You know, your best case
scenario is that that's an efficient pricing of him, which,
yeah, that's not really the way that I want to.
I mean, you know, if if I have to pick between picking a player
that's efficiently priced or picking a player that busted,
like, yeah, I'll take the efficiently priced, yeah, all
day. But that's not what I'm I'm not
setting out to find all the guys that are efficiently priced in
drafts, if that makes sense. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
You're trying to win tournaments and and and not at unless.
So unless he he does actually work into a decent share of the
go long role you're it it it it's probably not going to be a
tournament winning pick. Yeah I mean it may he he
definitely for the 8th, 9th round price I think that's still
enough room. Yeah, yeah, where you That
should be a tournament winning pick, right?
Yeah, totally agreed. And is there anybody else?
I, I, I, I do think we have to move on and but.
Yeah, I think, I think we're going to go to the next one.
Yeah, ohh, I mean, I I gotta just start us off here.
I mean, we already saw that Kyron's usage was elite, but
yeah, his his expected fantasy points is also elite.
Yeah, man, You know what I I'm really disappointed that Pat did
not include Kyron Williams in his legendary upside articles
this offseason. He just because he didn't have
his cert eye open quite enough. Yeah, but man I mean the only
guys that are looking so far legitimately live for like a
legendary upside type season are Tony Pollard CMC.
I mean, if Austin Eckler only misses one week, Austin Eckler,
Bijon Robinson and you know, maybe maybe briefs for the back
half of the season and then Kyron Williams like.
Right. It's rarefied there for like a
yeah. For such a late round pick it's
so it's so unusual for this to have happened and but in
hindsight it doesn't feel great to have like like it.
I I wasn't. I wasn't particularly against
Kyron, but I wasn't particularly like on him and so to speak and
like looking back when the only other back that the the coaches
liked was Cam makers. It it, it doesn't feel great to
have like not been there 50% Kyron.
Yeah, I I really liked Kyron this offseason.
A lot of people that I follow that, you know, I, I think are
sharp. Analysts had pointed me in the
direction of Kyron and I liked him last season.
I had some kind of loved him. Last year, yeah.
Then we we didn't get to see the bet play out and earlier in the
offseason this this is something where I feel like it's a good
thing to do in your drafting process but it's also something
where I'm making a note to be careful about this next season
as well. But I I really lumped some of
these players into this archetype that I had in my mind
for them and for Kyron, I had put him in this.
He's probably going to be the guy that gets a lot of the
passing work. He's smaller.
They really like him in that role.
You know Cam Makers probably gets the stuff.
I don't care that Cam Makers is getting, he's getting you know,
16 carries for 50 yards. Like who cares?
Kyron's getting 6 targets or whatever and the Rams are going
to be bad and they're going to be losing.
And so I want, you know, I want Kyron on full PPR sites.
So I I targeted Kyron more on DraftKings and had a little bit
of him on Underdog, but it was only 18 rounds on Underdog.
It's like I'm not so confident that I need Kyron here, and I
like him better in full PPR and really what I should be doing
instead of like lumping a player into this is the archetype.
This is the only box they fit in and I'm drafting them like that
always is. I really need to think of like
the range of their archetypes they could.
In the event. Now that I think back to it,
Jacob Sanderson had a pretty good article about running backs
as balloons and occupying space in an offense which I at first I
was like man, this this metaphor we're we're stretching it a
little bit. But now that I think about it
with respect to Kyron, it's like, yeah, if I had viewed
Kyron through that lens I I potentially could have gotten
myself onto more Kyron. So yeah, just a note that I
wanted to make for next season. Like don't be.
So, yeah, rigid in my definition of what a back is.
Because we don't, we don't know. Yeah, agreed.
And like I hated countermakers so much this year.
And then like it's like why don't why don't I make the jump
from I hate Cam makers and Kyron is the only other back they like
he goes in the last round like and you're right.
Like haven't I had this idea of like OK like he's not an NFL
lotly like his time was really bad.
He looked bad when he played and and and and making a note of
like, you know, there's there's a range of outcomes here.
And it is like you only have to take them in the 28 rounds.
And like, I really like that .1 of the other ones that I wanted
to point out here, we talked about his usage a little bit and
Gretchen stealing signals talked about this too.
But Jacob's efficiency has definitely been poor.
I mean it wasn't all the way to a throw out the tape game
against the Bills but it you know it was getting close.
But yeah that's that's slightly concerning for Jacobs.
His role is still it looks to be very good in the offense.
So I'm not ready to to say that he couldn't easily push himself
back up into that you know 20 expected fantasy point tier.
He only he only got like what? What was it like 10-11 touches
or test? Yeah, I think there was only
something like only 40 offensive snaps for the Raiders.
Yeah and it's like really low and and so he had 30 and
expected points and he scored 10 points and this is Week 2 and so
yeah it it it it is one of those things where and then.
In week one he had -11, 1/2, most of those from not
converting a goal line rush attempts.
So I think there there is something there where there's
been a outlier sort of like inefficiency that speaks to
outlier and stuff like not being able to convert goal line
touches that that that's just a randomness thing and like unless
he's terrible now. Like you probably would expect
that to go back to like a more average and statistic and then
you probably would expect the Raiders, I think that something
like 6 yards to play so it wasn't awful and them to have a
closer to a normal amount of offensive snaps and so again it
is. I think the main message is that
Jacob's role is still very, very strong and but.
It's like with a player like Jacobs, how many, like how many
bad efficiency things can you like can you handle?
Because he's not like he's not for his career, he hasn't been
this major efficiency guy. So I think just just last
season, right? Like, yeah, just last season was
not great and so I think if you're talking about him as like
a third, fourth round kick it it is starting to feel a little bit
dead zoney. And like that that that could
turn around next week with how good his role is.
If the offense plays well and he converts go line touches the
touch sounds could completely reverse next year.
So I I think the story is this it's still out the the jury's
still out on Jacobs a little bit but not as negative as as as
maybe it looks but definitely starting to get skeptical.
Yeah, I think, I think I'm a buyer in the fourth round.
If he's if he's going in the fourth round I'm I'm pretty
interested. I think the role is good.
Yeah. Enough that I'm willing to just
take a bet that the the early season and efficiency stuff for
him is just noise and that he looks more like he did last
season. Yeah.
I I think that, I think that's
very reasonable. Do you wanna move on?
Yeah, let's let's keep going because we we're we're starting
to get a little long winded here and if we're trying to keep this
as a tight 90, we gotta get moving.
So quick refresher on this tight end utilization chart.
This is just the percentage of the team's dropbacks.
The green is what percent of routes did the tight end run and
the kind of salmonish color is what percent of pass blocking
snaps do they have on the team's dropbacks.
I mean Durham Smythe is the utilization king.
That guy. That guy is just on the field
all the time. You you definitely could do
worse than Durham Smythe as a tight end if he's if he's still
on your waiver wire and you're languishing at tight end, just
get Durham Smythe because at least he's out there.
At least he's running a lot of routes.
Right. And and and lots of routes is it
that's the pathway for late tight end smashes like those
guys who are just on the field all the time.
Like that that's how you get those big late round breakouts
and his his target for at run is really low which I guess is not
super surprising given how ho hum the offense has been like
Tyreke is cooking and Joe and Waddell not quite what he was
last year but still producing big plays still open and but I I
I I think. You will get weeks where at just
because he's on the field all the time where it does feel
quite likely that you'll get multiple touchdown weeks from S
from Smite, you just you don't know when it'll happen.
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I mean in that offense like you
can definitely see him getting a couple, you know, little play
action on the goal line type deals.
Another guy that just jumps off the page here is Zach or it's
33% targets per route run. Now I know that this week I did
see more of Trey McBride on the field and he he looked halfway
decent. I was actually looking through
some of the PFF grades. Trey McBride is like the fifth
or sixth highest overall graded pass catcher for his for his
route running. Like not just in tight end like
in wide receivers as well. So I think what I'm taking away
from this is yeah I mean if you if you need a tight end you you
definitely could do worse than Zach Hertz.
But for all those best ball teams that are holding out hope
for you know the Trey McBride you know resurgence or not not
Resurgence I guess a breakout really I I just got so excited
from the end of last season where we saw some some flashes
from Trey McBride. But I think there's still hope
for that. I I think really what you're
wanting is you want Zach Hurts to get traded and there's really
no reason for this team to hold on to him, but they might.
Yeah yeah. I think it does very much feel
like it's it's it's super it's super hard to play Zach Hurts
even though that's such like an elite role and it it there is
pretty good signal here that the.
That the tight end usage on the Cardinals offense is, is is
excellent And that if if we got a player that we were excited
about and you said his name a second ago.
I can't remember Trey McBride. Trey McBride, thank you.
If if he was to step into that would be very, yeah, very
hopeful that you get like a true like smash season from from
McBride. And one thing that I'm not
sorry, go ahead. Oh sorry I cut you off there.
2/2 of the guys that I wanted to point out on the chart here are
two of the rookie pass catching tight ends and Sam Laporta and
Dalton Kincaid. They both have good targets per
route run rate. They both have lower a dots
right now. The one that I'm I personally
just from watching the games for both of these guys, the ones
that I'm a little more concerned about are Dalton Kincaid.
His really look like they're just throwing in the ball really
close to the line of scrimmage. Where La Porta.
I want to say that his were more like week one he had a bunch of
low a dot stuff and week two he had a bunch of kind of normal a
dot stuff and so it just is balancing out here.
I want to, if I'm remembering correctly, I think it's Week 1A.
dot was extremely low for La Porta.
La Porta looked really good. And I initially I was ready to,
you know, just when I made the chart and I saw Dalton Kincaid's
numbers, I was like, oh, Dalton Kincaid.
His snaps are going down. Like that's not good.
But I do. I do think that he's still going
to get used. I think that the team wants to
use him. I just think that it might take
a little longer for him to get to that spot for Fantasy where
we're super excited about him. But yeah, Dawson Knox is
definitely going to be frustrating for for Dalton
Kincaid drafters. I know he got a touchdown this
week, he's still out there running routes and I think
Kincaid was down to 60 something percent snaps this week.
So definitely lower than week one, but any thoughts on La
Porta or Kincaid? Yeah.
And one thing that I think that is interesting for for La Porta.
Is that so his his targets? Sorry.
His yard per run is it's A well in in week one it was 1 1/2 and
week two was 2.1. So even though the a dot is that
is not great he is that he is converting those into into
better yardage. True yards after the catch and
and and then I guess after catch efficiency and.
And definitely definitely encouraged by La Porta and as
sort of a rookie tight end he's getting this very much start
like true starter and level snaps and he's among the best
for tight ends and in his targets per ret run and he's
getting even though the aid I think the A dot is is in boat
weeks actually not at not great and but he's able to he's able
to. Make up for it a little bit with
yards after the catch and I mean for him to be at that level in
week ones and two as a rookie tight end, it is just really,
really strong. And then if you if if you put in
like if you mentally put in any sort of growth for him as a
player as he as he acclimatizes the NFL and feels definitely
feel super bullish there and for Kincaid.
The problem for Kincaid is that he like he has a he has he seems
to me to have this floor for roots just because like they
they really want to use them and and they don't care that Knox's
are tied in. They really want to use Kincaid
a lot as a route runner, as a sort of wide receiver, type B
and player and. But they they.
It's just impossible to run like that sort of formation 80% or
not impossible very very difficult to run that sort of
formation like 80%. So your your upside there is
capped and then his his targets per run of 16% is like solid for
a tight end not great and so he he'd really have to be like a
target vacuum on a sort of limited snaps and then.
A little for for somebody who's who's sort of billed as a wide
receiver with Ted tight end designation a 4.8 a dot super
discipline. You really do need to see that
like at least eight and and hopefully like 10 to like really
smash and and and with all that being said I think the one thing
that that does save him is the tight end designation where.
And you can play in my tight end and on underdog like even though
maybe probably overpaid just a little bit and it's still fine
just because tight end is such a wasteland.
And then on FFPC, like those that those targets, I think I
think it was like 6 targets or something like that that you got
last week is like it's still like if if you catch those
that's still like a respectable score with the with the premium
and but. It does feel not great from like
a true smash upside which I think I think it's a lot easier
to see envision the path for Sam Laporta to get the the that that
sort of upside. Yeah well well put definitely
agree there and that was I mean during all of draft season and
in the drafts that I did with you I I said I'm taking no
Dalton Kincaid on underdog. I I'm only taking him on FFPC
and tight end premium. Yeah because I really I think
that if he gets there it's going to be through that volume and
yeah I just want you know and and we're actually we're seeing
it play out for for TJ Hawkinson in that way super low a dot
doesn't matter you're going to get a gang of targets and those
things are 1.5 when he converts on untighted premium.
So another guy in that rookie vein, Luke Musgrave.
Good good A dot good targets per route run.
The the only reason why I'm not more excited for Luke Musgrave
is just the low volume for that offense right?
The low number of pass attempts, which I mean is Luke Musgrave
just like free Kyle Pitts. Then like we we paid like a
seventh round price. Sixth round price for Kyle
Pitts. Luke Musgrave was undrafted for
much of the summer. Is Luke Musgrave just Discount
Kyle Pitts? And.
Yeah I I I think I think that's sort of like that's very sad but
very very reasonable. I I mean the thing with Call
Pitts is that like he does have access to these types of seasons
that like most great probably doesn't.
But right now after two games feel very confident that Call
Pitts is not getting those rightly or wrongly it it feels
very certain that Call Pitts is not getting the seasons that
that you were hoping for. Yeah I think on a season wide
level you're probably not getting what you would have
wanted out of pits. I do think that, you know, we
saw this thesis play out with George Kittle last season in the
playoffs, but Kyle Pitts has that type of single game ceiling
where he could just be. If you don't have Kyle Pitts in,
you know, say it's week 15, you are not advancing, you know,
it's all the Kyle Pitts teams advance and if you didn't have
him just, you know, unlucky. Because what what we did see in
week two was the Falcons are not fully allergic to the pass.
They can, they can throw the ball, you know, some sometimes
better than others. There are a couple not great
looking passes from Ritter and also they did really try to get
Kyle Pitts you know on the board there.
They tried to force him the ball in the end zone there it didn't
work out even get his touchdown. But I I I'm leaving a light on
for Kyle Pitts the the single game upside is still there but
on a season level I'm not super excited.
So, so where would you be drafting Kyle Pitts, you know,
on a on a Week 3 tournament right now?
Where do you take him? We treat, we treat and beyond or
or we treat only. We treat beyond, beyond, and I
mean this feels a little bit too anchored and but I I feel like
this is 1 where you do want to be anchored.
I'm thinking like 8 rounds. OK.
And where like you know you just you just never know and it's
it's like how much do I wanna bet against at call pits season
2. And it's like maybe the the
likelihood of the call pits season is small, but if I don't,
if it happens and I don't have it, it's like you said if like
it just it'll it would be no pits, no money.
Yeah, the way that I kinda see the tight end landscape shaping
up so far with two weeks of data is.
You've got those elite got you know, you've got Travis Kelsey
and Mark Andrews, TJ Hawkinson, big break then George Kittle
because we know that he can have those huge games.
He's in a an extremely efficient offense.
He absolutely can have multi TV weeks, you know very accessible
to him and then all those guys the, you know the Darren Waller
the. Evan Ingram, the David and Joke
who? Pat Fryarmuth, Kyle Pitts, all
those guys going there, a bunch of them like the in Jokeu and
Fryarmuth. Just take that whole pole all
the way down. That's like round you know 1213.
There should be a group. A big old chunk of tight ends,
basically like rounds 12 through 14, is where a gang of the tight
ends, they're just a ton should go.
In that range. And then you may be like a guy
like Evan Ingram and Kyle Pitts. Those guys probably going like
the 9th, 10th round. Cuz isn't Evan Ingram, just
isn't Evan Ingram. Kyle Pitts.
But he's on an offense that actually throws the ball right?
Like he's he's super athletic, like past catching tight end.
You know he's not blocking either him look at look at him
and Kyle Pitt's usage he's he's running fewer routes than Kyle
or running a lower percentage of yeah, Kyle Pitts.
But overall that offense is passing more.
His a dot is lower but Evan Ingram's always added good good
after the catch numbers. So I think that that's a you
know Evan Ingram is just Kyle Pitts but on offense that can
pass and he he's, you know less talented as a player.
But it doesn't matter when your offense just won't throw the
ball. I agree on all on on on like
let's say the the bottom from the bottom 25% to the 70 the top
75% of outcomes like and you you probably don't feel bad about
taking Evan Ingram over Ram and Culpits.
I just, I feel I I just feel a little bit uncomfortable about
fading someone where they do have that top five, 10% outcome
where it's just unstoppable and it makes me, it makes me feel
very uncomfortable to like pass on it and but I could be
clinging on to something there that is.
It's just too, it's too hard to get with Eric Schmitt and with
them winning games. I can definitely see something
where like I think that's a 5 to 10% outcome and someone was like
no that that's a 1% outcome that's like a one in a million
and so. So maybe maybe I'm putting too
much weight on. I I don't.
I don't think you are. Because there's a universe where
Kyle Pitts catches the touchdown that they really tried to force
to him this week. And we're all talking about
like, my gosh, is Kyle Pitts season happening?
And I just to take a brief detour, yeah, we definitely have
time for detours in this show. But the the concept you talked
about of like, oh, I don't really want to fade a guy that
could bury me like that. I think from a game theory
perspective, we talk about taking stands on guys, being
really overweight on guys and fading a guy.
I feel pretty confident in saying that being double.
The field on a guy is a less aggressive stance to take than
full fading a guy, right? And so when you full fade, when
you 0% a guy like full on, this dude's not on any of my teams,
That's an enormous risk you're taking.
Because like you said, if that is the guy that you need in the
playoffs, cuz those weeks happen where it's yeah, that is just
the dude. And you have zero.
Literally zero. That can be the whole season for
you. The season is now over.
You know, it was Week 15. You had no Naji Harris.
He fell in the end zone four times and now Felix is winning
BBM four and Eagles took second place.
And you're wanting to drink bleach, you know, like.
But yeah, I think a full fade on a guy like Kyle Pitts, that can
really bury you. Is an extremely aggressive
stance to take and I don't think people view fades in that light.
And that's something that I think that you know if you're
taking this seriously and building out a really big
portfolio you should really strongly consider that a full
fade is an extremely aggressive position in a portfolio that
that's and I mean I'm not trying to say that I don't want to say
what I'm trying to I'm like I'm very and how do I say it I'm
very anxious about pushing them back too much and pits back too
much. And but I I did think that was a
really interesting way of describing how to build
portfolios and and and that's definitely made me think I I'm
I'm more nervous than I should be now about about full fading.
I I I'd still do it again, but that is a good way to think
about it. I think I got two Nachi teams
they're both like in the 5th and 6th round.
So we'll take those and all right let's I I think one thing
I should I point point out here is that there's a couple of
players here where if we were only looking at week two it
would look much better. So at Darren Waller and if you
just look at week two and you throw out the the weird the
weird game with the against the Cowboys and he would be at an
89% root share and we mentioned last week had the injury he had
an 88% root share last night and and then called sorry George
Kittle and this is probably because of the the Ayuk injury
he had an 86% root share last week and and I wouldn't normally
throw out one game at root shares but just bear I guess I
guess somebody's the bear in mind given our low sample size
that some of these players could jump quite a bit.
Yeah, that's a really good point and it's just, yeah, we need to
consider the context of the data.
Just aggregating 2 weeks and saying this is what it is is not
gonna be as helpful in cases where the situation was
drastically different might be closer to the mean outcome,
right? And I think we will probably go
through the the back tight end shirt quickly.
Travis Kelsey obviously don't expect him to be on the backup
shirt for a full season and 35% target threat run probably
because of the the few routes that he ran.
And and then I I did note that I saw that Gretchen noted in
stealing signals that Everett he actually ran quite a bit behind
Parham last week and so Everett was was the guy ahead in week
one and then Param was the guy ahead in week two.
So that that that definitely seems like it either Param has
just made it his his tight end and spot, or if those guys are
going to flip flop on roots like that week to week.
That makes it very difficult to to trust one.
Yeah I mean and and even though Gerald Everett got out to out
snapped by Parum he did have a couple plays where he looked
good. But yeah it's not it's not a
place where I'm super excited. I mean definitely in season long
fantasy I don't know how you ever have the confidence to like
unless it's like a break glass in case of emergency thing like
how do you have the confidence to fire up Everett in best ball.
I think it'll be OK. I think Everett is kind of.
He's like cut from the same cloth that Noah Fant is.
He's not quite as athletic, but he's very athletic, yeah.
Probably not quite as good, but are you drafting him like a
couple of rounds ahead of Parum? I think they're probably players
where the Adps should have been much closer.
Yeah now like if I were to jump in a draft right now, I would
probably they they both would be like eighteenth round tight ends
for me and I yeah, randomize. I just pick pick.
Whichever we did. We got a question in the chat
that I wanted to go back to for can we expect Jake Ferguson's
routes to increase as the season goes on?
And I saw this one earlier but we were on the the starter tight
end Page I. I kind of think no.
And here's why it the Cowboys did this last season when when
they had Schultz there in that they really like their they're
tied in room while you know you, the household names of Peyton
Hendershot and now Luke Schumacher.
Like, you might not have heard of them, but the Cowboys like
them and and they're like interested in getting all of
them involved. And they view all of them as
weapons, like they're manufacturing touches for Peyton
Hendershot, they're manufacturing touches for Luke
Schumacher when they get on the field.
It's not to say that like they're going to get a ton of
volume and opportunity, but just that, like, Jake Ferguson is
going to have trouble consolidating the role in the
way that Dalton Schultz did. And I don't think that it's
because Schultz is necessarily like this world's better talent
than Ferguson is. But I just think that it's they,
like all of these guys, they spent high draft capital on
Schumacher. I would expect over the course
of the season, Schumacher to take a step forward.
I do still think that Ferguson is the one that you want to have
for fantasy, but it'll be interesting to see.
You know, the Cowboys really haven't had a game where they've
been forced to pass a lot more. And I I do think that Ferguson
could end up getting more opportunity in a game script
like that. But the real take away for me
for Cowboys is gonna come when we get to the wide receiver
chart. We'll just leave that clear
finger there. True, true, Not quite a boots on
the grounds, but true fan take mixed with analytics.
I don't think you'll get a more informed opinion on the Cowboys
tight ends We wanna do. All the analytical stuff we
wanna pay attention to the metrics that can be really
telling for us. But when we get that little bit
of qualitative analysis in there too, that's not overwhelmingly
Homer. That's how we how we put out the
quality stuff for you guys really disappointed in this in
this usage. So for Michael Meyer yeah.
Was really excited about this year.
Yeah. Really really strong.
Yeah. Rookie profile going in as a
rookie and but very disappointing saying that 6%
targets were at running the 2 yard.
A dot Yeah pour pour some out for Michael.
My It's not happened in this season.
For Michael, I think it got rookie tight end on this.
Yeah unfortunately. And so yeah, as you will do the
two, let's let's hit the yeah, the white zebra chart and just
like we all expected how we were all.
Drafting it. Puka and Akua is the alpha of
all alphas. I mean, holy shit guys like I
I've gotta believe that it comes back down to earth a little bit.
But maybe that's just copium. Since I have so little Puka and
I I have to share with this little bit.
I went back. I have some buddies that I do
FFPC drafts with. I went back through our group
text and. Because I I remember being on
Puka early. I was I was leading the charge.
I was carrying the banner for Puka.
I look back at a text on June 3rd where I just pounded the
table and I was like we are taking Puka as our late round
dark throw here. We need him as the bring back to
our giant stack and so we took Puka on June 3rd.
Then just a couple weeks later June 30th and less bullish on
Puka, I say I put both Puka and Tutu in the queue.
I'm gonna use random.org to randomize between the two of
them. And then Fast forward to August
26th and my buddy asks do we want another puka share here?
And I said something to the effect of I'm not terribly
interested in the wide receiver 4 on the Rams and that that one
just stung. My takes regressed over the
summer. I think I just need to stick to
only drafting in June when I if you can just take your your best
opinions from June, combine them with your best opinions with all
other months of the summer you you've got a monster.
Yeah, I I I think though like hindsight.
Unless, unless you had the knowledge of Cooper Cup is
injured, so you're in. August Cooper Cooper Cup is
injured. And then maybe you're paying a
lot of attention to the idea that like, oh, Stafford is
really healthy this year. He doesn't have any elbow issues
like. And then you, you, you, you
picture this in your head of like, OK, prime Stafford and
then they have to try to someone.
And then maybe you get an idea that like like I I think if you
asked me in July if Puka Nakula would have been an 85 to 90%
route share guy for the Rams, I I I think that would have been
quite actually quite a surprise and.
Right. Yeah, that's.
No, you're you're you're right. You know there's no.
Even the person with the biggest Pooka bags did did not think
that he was going to be 85 to 90% route share, dropping you
know 25 fantasy points a game. By the way, my OCD is going to
kill me, but we've still got Aaron's message hanging out
there on the screen. Oh, oh, you're right, you're
right, right. I forgot about.
I knew. So I've got a I've got ADHC.
I knew, and I knew I was going to forget about it.
I was like, don't go off the screen.
And then when we flipped to the chart, I just forgot about it.
That's OK We just we wanted to give Aaron some love there.
But I. It dovetailing from that message
about Jake Ferguson will get to the point that I wanted to make
about why Jake Ferguson, you know, even if he did run more
routes, is not going to be quite the smash that all of the Jake
Ferguson bag holders myself is that the captain of the club
wanted him to be. And that's because CD Lamb is a
motherfucking alpha. CD Lamb is.
You see where he is in this quadrant, You're going to see
him move up and to the right. The Cowboys game scripts.
These first couple games have not really required a ton of
passing and he still earned 14 targets this week.
Like this guy is going to eat this is.
The the Cowboys offense didn't change all that much from Kellan
Moore departing, but in the subtle ways that it did change,
it became even more like what we saw from some of the older Mike
McCarthy offenses where that wide receiver won.
Just feast the, you know, the Jordy Nelson, the Devante Adams
and CD Lam operating as the power slot in an NFL meta where
it's too high safety. We refuse to give you explosive
plays. Yeah, this guy's gonna feast.
And I mean, he's right next to the guy that you know fits the
same archetype. Amman, Ross St.
Brown, both both of those players.
I'm very excited for this season.
Yeah. I mean pretty pretty much
everyone in this. The, the biggest surprise to me
is Michael Pittman's target earning ability.
I mean, he always had been pretty heavily targeted.
But yeah, I I think the first two weeks what we've seen has
been. Much more bullish than I
anticipated for Michael Pittman. So that was that was kind of
surprising to me. Did you have any big surprises
for you on this chart and obviously we know at T Higgins
played quite well and but seeing him in the alpha portion of the
of the chart where he's like he's like just above 70%
weighted targets per ret run and is that that's a little
surprising and and and and because I know that like
everybody sort of like went into the season expecting Jamar Chase
to be like the true target error and and he's sitting back there
at 50% and and I mean I don't expect that to to hold for the
full season for T Higgins to be 20% ahead and wait waited
targets right run and but with the heavy cut again heavy caveat
that and you you sort of want Burrow to be back playing
healthy and and playing well and that that over a full year if
like you get a season where T Higgins is like is a true 1B
rather than one and two and I I I think he's that he's really
honestly a great pick there at the two tree turn and same with
a lava I don't think that's a surprise there at all but still
noteworthy that olave is at 80% way to target spirit run like I
think he was like he was top I think it was two he was a lave
was second to Tyriq in way to target.
Spirit run as a rookie, so and interesting at least.
Interesting that he's sort of following that up with still
strong target earning ability and go ahead the The biggest
concern for me with Olave is. I really thought the Saints
might come out and just absolutely do it to the Panthers
and that game was a little disappointing.
I I I don't know. You know, maybe it's just one
week noise, but the Saints offense was not what you you
know, if you're a Chris Olave owner, you're right.
You were hoping their car primed their car and and they and they
can they can actually choke the ball.
Yeah, but. But I mean in hindsight looking
at that 2/3. Turn really that that whole
second round. I mean like basically the only
draftable running back in the entire second round was Tony
Pollard. And otherwise you should have
been taking, you know, Chris Olave, T Higgins, Devonta Smith,
Jalen Waddell. Like all all of those were way
outer picks of the running backs going there.
Yeah, I I agree. I definitely think.
Oh, another one that stood out. I mean, he just, if you watch
the game, he popped off the screen on his big breakaway
play. He displayed speed.
That, I don't think. Who got the theme from him?
George Pickens. Yeah.
And that was it. That was it.
I only saw how to play that was an.
Awesome, awesome play and we I I haven't seen a play from him in
the NFL where we got to see him really open it up and display
that speed. Holy cow I I wanna see the mph
from him on that one. Cuz he was gone when he when he
saw daylight he was absolutely out of there and he this, this
is what George Pickens needed to break out is we needed target
earner extraordinaire Deontay Johnson out of the way for a
little bit. So they didn't have a choice but
to give Pickens targets and I think that this is the path.
Like if you're going to get the holy shit Pickens as a league
winner type outcome, this is the path you need to be on.
It's not looking terribly optimistic because that offense
doesn't look great. Matt Canada is not calling plays
the way you would really want. I I think what you're really
hoping for is George Pickens and Kenny Pickett just developed
such chemistry that the the play calls don't they cease to
matter. The two guys are just on such a
level where and Pickens is such a good wide receiver that
they're just gonna produce those two are gonna produce.
So I think that's a good call out.
I think that's a good call out that.
What's his name? What's who do you go to?
Wide receiver? Sorry, Deontay.
Deonte I think that that he was missing and but.
Really interesting to see him in, in this high, yeah, weighted
targets were at run and section because that was always a sort
of knock with him was that he, he wasn't quote UN quote earning
targets and then he his open score and all that sort of stuff
was low. And so to see him actually get
up there that that's what you're looking for, for him getting
these deep targets for him to be targeted at at a decent rate.
He got 9 targets last night and and converted those.
He had four 4.2 yards forever on and 110 area yards.
Go. Sorry, go ahead, you're you're
good to add context to the data of prior to last night, when
Deontay Johnson was on the field in week one, and then also all
last season, the reason that Pickens open score was poor, the
reason that he wasn't earning targets at a high rate, is by
design. The offense was intentionally
using him as the cardio boy. You know clear it out.
Hey run right. I think he ran the 9 route at
the highest rate of any wide. I I I might be making this up
but I know it was very high. He might be the high.
I think last season it was the highest rate of nine routes was
George Pickens and it's like yeah, the dude is a contested
catch freak. Like if we are gonna throw it at
him when he's running all these nine routes that's fine.
But they weren't even throwing it to him.
He the the design of the offense was George Pickens is an
afterthought. And you know, occasionally we'll
throw him a pass. And so just when you have an
offense being run that incompetently, we're like very
clearly after after just one game, like, yeah, this is the
guy that they probably should have been throwing the ball to
or not. Not that Deonte's a bad receiver
by any means. But like, if you had to pick,
who do you want touching the ball more?
Do you want George Pickens touching the ball more or do you
want Deonte Johnson touching the ball more like you want George
Pickens. So when you force a bad
offensive coordinator to come correct with how he's running
his offense and and distributing the ball to his best players,
maybe that's the path you needed for Pickens.
Yeah, I do think that's interesting, where he played so
well. And then Deonte's out for a
little while that maybe Pickens plays so well that Canada has to
say ohh shit like I I I I just because Deonte's back doesn't
mean like I can I can I can just put this guy back to to what it
was before. And then even if he does that
Pickens is like, what the hell? Like I just followed out.
Please let me continue to do that.
Like that. It definitely feels very bullish
for like a Pickens upside season that he's able to put in a
performance like that. Anyone else on this chart that
you wanted to to talk about before we move on to the next
one? And yeah, and and Datsun.
Is a little disappointing there and with how well that Hallow
has played and but. Don't want to read in too much
to it we we still only have a two game sample size and the
fact that hell is playing decently well and you do hope
that that that can improve but I'm I'm that that's definitely
something where I'm like that's a bit surprising to me with how
excited we were about him wanna keep an eye on that on on him
having such a low weighted targets per ret run Datsun.
And. That's Is there anybody else you
want to talk about? I mean, Alec Pierce full on
Cardio Club. Like the definition of cardio
club. That's eighteenth round pick
only for me in out of Pierce. Yeah, drafting today it's
eighteenth round pick. So yeah, he's at, he's at 90 to
95% route share. But he's the less than 10% way
the targets per route run. So not good he is is is truly
clear cleared out like just not targeted and so on to the the
sort of second tier of charts here and we these are players
who are still like starters and but they they're they're not
they don't have as truly an elite route share as the first
chart and here you you'll have Tyreek Hill who's like.
Is a little bit older still a lead and but maybe he doesn't
run as much roots as as he would have when he was younger and but
more than makes up for that in Peru efficiency with like a way
to target spirit run of above 100%.
The The Tyree kill stuff too. If you watch the games.
What? What actually is happening to
why he's not getting an even higher route share is a lot of
the times he's he is running a lot.
He's running a lot on a play and they need to take.
It's like give me, give me a breather because and he don't
get oxygen on every half time, yeah.
I mean, out of necessity. Like this man is just going
crazy out here. Some guys that were really
encouraging both in production and where they show up on the
chart, I mean like Mike Evans, really, really exciting.
If you're drafting, I think that it's, you know, it's definitely
going to be a little noisy with just two weeks.
But Baker Mayfield is willing to throw and Mike Evans is still
Mike Evans and he's still going to get 1000 yards this season.
So where he was going in basketball drafts looking like a
strong value. Yeah, I think that I think
you'll see Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.
I mean, I think they'll move their their points a little
closer. I think Godwin's been running a
little poor and Baker just has decided that it's really fun to
throw it up to Mike. Like, who wouldn't want to throw
it up to Mike Evans? Like that sounds like a blast.
I'm. I'm in.
Maybe he could make those look good.
Yeah, right next to Mike. Evans, Nico.
Collins. Finally, I mean, we we touched
on him last week, but putting together another strong week,
the people that chased Nico Collins up the draft board are
looking pretty sharp here. I couldn't get there.
I was. I was too low on both Stroud and
Young, and so I'm batting 500 on those rookie quarterback takes
here because Stroud looks promising and this passing game
for Houston as a whole looks like something that you want a
part of for fantasy. It's it's like we discussed.
It's those offenses that were so, so cheap that they don't
even need to do anything crazy to be really great values.
And Nico looks like one of those really great values.
Yeah, yeah, I I agree. And.
For sure. Is other than those guys this
this chart is just starting to get pretty crowded like you're
definitely you get into these guys who are like good good
great to to great players but last of them in not like really
high yet way the targets run and some yeah I I also see I.
See. Go ahead.
Ohh no no you. You go ahead here.
And I do. I do do see Terry McLaren.
Here who's also pretty low on the the way the targets per out
run and I that that does make me wonder if is like is the offense
like just? Is it?
Sort of. Are they just not choking it
deep or like that that that does surprise me that that both of
the. It was relatively spread and
there was. There was a little bit in, I
wanna say it was 2 minute where Curtis Samuel just got a bunch
of stuff. It was like, here's Curtis
Samuel for like 3 plays in a row and and of course the tight ends
are both involved there. Yeah, another another point I.
Wanted to. To make here we do see Christian
Kirk and Calvin Ridley coming a little closer together here.
Calvin Ridley still looked really they're they're he was
doing things that were pretty spectacular and had a couple
close like shoulda, woulda, coulda plays.
So I'm not like I'm not calling his his pullback in production
from week two like ah this is what Calvin Ridley is.
But I I do think that my read on this offense is is going to be
pretty spot on and that it's all of these guys are spike week
players. Yeah they're they're all pretty
good. You probably wanted to be
investing through the cheapest prices.
So that is when Calvin Ridley was cheaper you wanted to load
up on him. When Christian Kirk was falling
at the end of the draft season you wanted to load up on him and
then ze Jones where he was going.
You you wanted to load up on ZE Jones pretty much all throughout
the draft. And I actually I wrote about
this in My Portfolio postmortem article that's up on Spike week
right now in how I thought the Jags offense should be played.
And through two weeks it does kind of look like it's starting
to play out that way. The other the other quick ones
that I wanted to bring up, if you've got a guy in the bottom
left quadrant of this chart, they're they're officially on
like the missing persons report. So, you know, like Hunter
Renfro, Donovan Peoples Jones, Michael Gallup, Paris Campbell,
Van Jefferson, UH, Alan Robinson, K Sean Booty.
Like these guys are all on the milk carton.
Like it's it's not looking good. And of all of those guys that I
listed, none of them have really, I haven't seen any.
You know, Mark has vowed this scantling.
Nothing has flashed where I'm like, Oh well, I'm hopeful that
he's gonna increase his weighted targets per route run next week.
Like Nope, These these dudes are on the milk carton and I don't
know what it's gonna take to find him.
The only couple that are in this quadrant where I can see some
stuff, you know, breaking better for them.
Josh Downs I think has pretty good chemistry with Anthony
Richardson. It's not really a back or a wide
receiver. I'm super excited about because
he's just, you know, slot wide receiver low.
A dot probably needs way more volume than he's going to be
able to get. If Anthony Richardson's
quarterback if Baker Mayfield's quarterback, you might wind up
with like a I haven't haven't looked at DraftKings pricing,
but there's definitely like a Josh Downs punt play type of
type of thing I could be interested in.
The other ones that I'll list really quickly, Darius Slayton
and Traylan Burks both are guys where I could see them trending
in a direction that's more positive on this chart just
because the Giants wide receivers outside of Jalen Hyatt
look pretty bad. I'm kind of bummed about
Hodgins, I thought. I thought Hodgins showed a
little bit near the end of last season where he might be able
to, you know, earn, earn a good amount of targets in offense
with not a ton of competition. But yeah, maybe you get a little
more out of Slayton. I don't think so, though.
I think Slayton's kind of we. We know what he is, we've seen
it. And then Burks, you're just
hoping that this is him slowly being worked back in.
Yeah, kind of, I think same box. I think he had something going.
On in the in in Week 2, because I, I I think I saw that he
didn't actually play that much. In the fourth quarter of last
week and but there's definitely like more encouraging signs for
for Burks. For example, last week he had
4.2 yards per hour run and and he had 4/4 targets and and they
only had 29 dropbacks. So like there's like, if you if
you're looking for something to be optimistic about, there's
definitely something there for Burks.
To be optimistic about and then another point on the like on the
milk carton guys that I think is worth noting is that this chart
sort of intentionally punishes guys who have low a dots and so
and because the weighting is it's sort of weighted towards
air yards to to. Make sure that we're waiting
towards the most fantasy productive sort of targets.
And so you can have guys who get four or five, maybe 6 targets,
but if they're up low a dot then then they can still be in the
cardio club section of the chart even though like they are, they
are actually getting targeted. But when you get the the the MBS
quiz and DPJ guys who are like supposed to be deep chat
receivers. And they're still really low
then then that's like a more like negative and bear sign than
than the kind of like slot low. A dot guys being in that
section. Yeah, good.
Good explanation there because, yeah, that's definitely an
important distinction to make there.
And and then do we wanna go? To the the.
Sort of true backup. Yeah, I think we gotta move on
to #3 because we're we're probably gonna run over 2 hours
here. Oh, you you have.
You have a lot of notes. For for the backup receiver.
Oh you just know that I'm I'm long winded.
I I could. I mean, when it comes to Jaden
Reed and Rashid Shaheed, I I could talk for a while.
I think these guys are just, you know, they were already exciting
week one. They continue to be exciting for
for what they are. Week 2, Justin Watson started
creeping in there. He had a good number of air
yards. He was.
He was over 100 air yards, correct.
Yeah, he he I mean. That receiver room is like
anyone's game. So if you you could end up with
the late career Justin Watson breakout for like all the one of
you Justin Watson truthers out there it it might happen
frustrating one Mac Hollins like can we just get those targets to
Drake London and Kyle Pitts please like what are we what are
we doing giving Mac Hollins so much stuff.
Another another interesting one was Tank Dell really you know
took advantage of the opportunity with Noah Brown
going on IR. So Tank Dell definitely
interesting and we like the we like the rookies who.
Because their rookies are not getting big route shares, but
when they're on the field, they're getting heavily
productive targets and and so encouraging for for the likes of
Tankdale and and Jaden Read that perhaps they'll increase their
Rd. share as they continue to play.
Well, yeah, absolutely. Good.
Good point there. One of the other rookies that I
do want to point out that ends up on this chart is JSN, and
he's basically dead middle. He's like average weighted
targets per outrun, average fantasy points per game.
When you talk about guys that get low a dot being punished,
he's definitely being punished here for that low a dot.
He had a decent number of targets this game, but they were
all very close to the line of scrimmage.
I don't necessarily think that's going to only be his game.
You know, he definitely can operate a little deeper down the
field, but I do just think it's gonna be something where it's
gonna take a little while for him to come on.
I did. I heard someone today say
something along the lines of, Oh well, the only way JSN really
gets to what you wanted him to be when you were drafting him at
the price that you're drafting him at, is you need an injury,
you need a DK Mac effort. I really don't think that's
true. I think that you're seeing the
path that a lot of these rookie wide receivers follow.
You know where they're going to come on slowly.
They're going to earn more work, you know, You can see he was
only a 60 to 65% route. Sure guy, he did increase from
week 1 to week two. So that's encouraging.
And don't forget, like, the dude just broke his wrist a couple.
He had wrist surgery like 2 1/2 weeks, 3 weeks ago now you know.
So I'm not, I'm not discouraged by JSN, but you know, when you
do see these rookies coming out with hot starts like Jaden Reed
and Tank Dell, you know, you're like, oh man, like I can't, I
can't JSN do that. But I I think it's still coming
for JSN. Yeah, yeah, he he he is simply
too good for us. To want to throw in the towel
and and important to that he he's still being targeted like
he's he's his he's still getting like he had 6 targets in week 24
targets week one and. And and on a lower like sort of
like snap or drop back bases like that's still still pretty
pretty good and and so like he he hasn't he hasn't flashed the
big play yet and but that that's sort of what we're looking for
where like he he he does have I mean his his time 40 time is not
the best. I am but he he he still does
have explosive play ability and and you're you're hoping to see
him make some big plays that that do force them to to play
him some more the by the way you.
You mentioned Terry Mclaurin earlier and here I mentioned
Curtis Samuel. Yeah, here's here's the reason
why you got, you got all this Curtis Samuel stuff taken away
from, you know, Dotson and Mclaurin.
So it is a relatively split offense for right now.
I don't know if you'll end up with howl having a favorite or
if it's always going to be kind of split like this, but we'll
and you know, there are tight ends involved in well as well.
So it'll be interesting to see how this shakes out.
I think that as far as like for DFS and things like that.
That Washington passing game's going to be really hard to pick
who you want to have with the with howl.
You probably are just better off, you know, if you're going
to do a howl playing in a given week, probably just want to take
the tight end, since such a large percentage of the tight
end points would would come from touchdown.
And if you do get that, you're probably good on your stack.
You know you probably paid off your tag.
I'm assuming they're going to be pretty cheap any any week you
want to play them. Any anyone else on this chart
that you had notes on and no and?
I think it's all like we're a lot, a lot of these guys are
Ram, if you're on this chart, I don't unless we're seeing stuff
to make us believe that you belong on the the last two
charts. For example, Jaden Reid, Rashid
Rice Tank, Dale and hopefully JSN soon if you're on this
chart. You you're really sort of like
and drawing 10 to be fantasy productive So the fact that you
see at Rondell Moore here at only 65 to 70% and and and not a
he does have a low a dot role so it it does make sense that he's
low and weighted targets for at run but low a dot role not
playing a lot and. That, that, that doesn't feel
like a strong a strong play. Ron Elmer doesn't seem like a
strong play right now and again Joshua Parmer where he is he's
supposed to be a deep track guy and and so the fact that he's
he's in the cardio club section not getting not getting a ton of
routes and or well he's 65 to 70% so not not terrible but far
from from startable. Yeah, the last I I.
Wanted to make a general macro point that I wanted to remind
myself of for next season. But in this cardio club, we've
got Rondale Moore as you mentioned, we've got DJ Chark.
These are two players where if you use Etr's best ball
rankings, these guys are both. You're gonna come in with a lot
of them if you just draft it off of rankings.
And this is the the Leonie likes the projectable volume special
where both these guys are like just if you know to sniff this
out next year, you'll save yourself a lot of money like not
clicking Rondell Moore way ahead of you know you you're going to
end up with like 1520% Rondell Moore 1520% DJ chart if you
followed the rankings. And on the flip side they
actually nailed Jaden Reed. They were super ahead of the
market on Jaden Reed the whole time and if you followed their
rankings on Jaden Reed, you probably got to like 20% Jaden
Reed. I I definitely did because I
was. I I was high on Jaden Reed.
ETR was high on Jaden Reed. Pat was high.
Everyone that I trusted for rankings was high on Jaden Reed.
But yeah, just a note for for future best fall drafting.
If you just remind yourself there's gonna be a couple guys
in the ETR rankings that are just up there because that's the
person that they were most confident to project volume
onto. But we already know.
We know what DJ Shark is. You know he's been in the league
long enough, and that offense was gonna be bad.
So just to avoid those landmines, but be willing to
lean into the ones like when they're excited about a rookie
like January. Yeah, just click click that over
and over. Yeah, I'm just to we we both,
really. Do like the the ETR rankings and
but just you want you definitely want to be careful on that
projectable volume for players where you have a very good idea
of what they're like sort of like fantasy sort of role is and
it isn't great. Like, I think that's a message
there, like a sort of overall, yeah, 100%, yeah.
It was not meant to be a dig at the ETR rankings.
They're one of the highest weights in my weighted aggregate
rankings. It was just, it's been a couple
of years ago, right. And I knew that you had no
intention of doing that. I just wanted to make sure.
Yeah, yeah. It's been a couple years in a
row though where you get the, gosh, who is Brashad Perriman
from? Yeah, years past.
You know there's a couple of those are going to sneak into
the rankings and that's that's part of doing rankings.
You know you gotta gotta project out team offense and sometimes
it's just ambiguous. And they, I feel like they did a
better job of it this year where they had a lot of, I'll call
them like ghost roles where they just had unassigned volume to
guys which that's I think that's a really sharp way to do it when
you have these ambiguous situations or offense that might
not be as good as you want to end up projecting it.
But yeah, there's just the point of and this isn't just their
rankings this is the market in general places a lot of
confidence in those kind of players where it's like well the
volume has to go to this guy. You know there's no there's
nowhere else for the volume to go.
And in in the cases of DJ Shark and Rondale Moore, it's, yeah,
sure, the volume could go to these guys.
It's just like, no volume, it doesn't matter, you know, And
right, we projected the offense. And sometimes in the case of
like, who's Van Jefferson? It's no, no, no Van Jefferson.
We know what he is. It's puka and Tutu, you know.
So just just having that, being cognizant of that for drafting
in the future, Yeah, yeah, I. Think that that is very.
Fair and Joshua gauge that that there's a I'm sorry Russell
Gauge that's another one right around very easy to to to to
project. And and and hoist volume onto
them where you know, where you know they're not very good.
It is. And you know, you know from like
seeing them play a couple of years that they're not very
good. It can definitely be tricky to
sniff those guys out though. You like you certainly as a
drafter can fall into that that narrative of Oh yeah, that makes
sense. Like I, Russell Gage in the
18th. Like they've got to throw to
someone there, you know, right. Mike Evans is gonna get traded
and then it's the Russell Gage show and it's yeah, be.
But being able to sniff those guys out, I think is a way that
you can, you know, those those eighteenth round picks, those
can be really valuable. That's a Puka, that's a Kyron,
that's a Tutu, that's Justice Hill.
You know, that's Josh Kelly, that's, you know, Jerome Ford.
At certain parts of the offseason, I'm still worried
that Jayden Reed has only played in three wide receiver sets.
Yeah, I mean, if you watched watched him play, he's good.
And so I I think that he's gonna earn his way to more playing
time, right. And and that's the point of
this, this share. Is the sniff at the guys that
aren't playing? Yeah, that's the reason.
If if Jayden Reed didn't exist there, would there would be
little point in the in in this chart and the fact that he is.
Earning targets. And down the field targets at
such a consistent rate and succeeding with them And is it?
It's definitely it. It's a reason for them to play a
more. And then Josh Joshua had a
question. Did Michael Wilson go missing?
And I hate to inform you, Joshua, but Michael Wilson never
existed in the 1st place. He was a ploy by Big Best Ball
to see how outlandish a player they could get you to click, I'm
pretty sure, and Michael Wilson is somebody I work with.
And. Michael Wilson's an accountant.
Somewhere there, there's definitely there's definitely an
accountant. Called that Michael Wilson out
there. Yeah, I mean, Michael Wilson
might be watching this show right now.
Michael Wilson might just be a fantasy player like a a.
He plays fantasy football. He's not an Is it a true deep
fake? I wasn't.
Wasn't trying to throw shade at you, Joshua.
I meant. I meant the collective You the
the Royal Best Ball drafting community and not psyopt into
Michael Wilson. So I think.
He is in here and we definitely we.
Definitely have him and he just, he's lost in a crowd of is he on
the, is he on the milk carton? Yeah, there he is.
There he is 70 to 75% route run. Between 40 and 60% targets per
route run just above 5 fantasy points a game.
So there's there's your your Michael Wilson folks.
There he is, you know. Glory, so I I guess we we we
brought the time. Back a little bit and but didn't
quite didn't quite I I'm, I don't feel bad that and we were.
I I felt like we had very productive conversations and and
hopefully useful for for people. Yeah.
I mean, as long as we're putting out work that's useful to
people, that's all I care about. And if we go over 2 hours, we go
over 2 hours, we'll we'll try and keep it tighter.
But I don't ever want to just shorten the show for just the
purpose of shortening it. I wanna make sure we get you
guys the analysis that you need to make the best decisions you
can going forward. Yeah, definitely agree.
And I think we did. We think we.
Did a good middle ground of scaling back to time and but
still making sure that it was full analysis like you said.
All right. Well, I I.
Think with that time to time to wrap it up and pack it in for
the night. For those of you that hung with
us for the whole two hours and change.
We appreciate you and yeah this this has been stat chasing yeah
that's that's week two of stat chasing done thanks for.
Listening in, folks.