Week 18 is in the books and now it is time for a very special
week around the ship chasing universe.
This has now become an annual tradition.
We got multiple shows lined up this week to cover all of the
playoff contest, specifically the FFPC Playoff Challenge.
And tonight it is one of the crown jewel shows of the ship
chasing universe. It is the revealing of the
Boomer Opto. We of course have Hassan, Raheem
and Blair Andrews will be joining Pat, Gretch and myself
tonight and we set the table for playoff challenge week.
Let's do it. Pat Fryer, Helmo Anita Handjob.
Fix your sight Jamar alpha play chase.
You can't handle the heat. It looks like we're finally at
this point. All right, there he is.
Hassan Blair will be joining us shortly.
Hassan, I know you've already been in the lab a little bit,
you know, trying to get inside the mind of the boomer.
How you feeling this this playoff season?
Like I'm going to have a heart attack beat.
Like I think my arteries are completely done.
Golden Corral, Denny's, Sizzler, Cracker Barrel, IHOP, you name
it. Man I've been there for like 6
weeks. Wow.
We, we are locked. We, we are locked.
We are ready. We're in the minds.
I think.
Not the minds.
Not the content minds. The boomer minds.
The Yeah, like we. Are we are soliciting the actual
optimi like we have to calibrate?
You know it's true. I'm so excited for this.
I like I didn't. I haven't done nearly the Golden
Corral research you have, but for about 5 minutes before we
went live, I tried to look through it and actually get an
idea of what it would be. It's not easy this year to
figure it out, I mean. It's fun.
It's a fun year to try to. It's so.
Fun. It's a year that's going to push
people towards stuff that they're not even be that excited
about. But there's there's lots of
like, yeah, I guess I'll do that guy clicks which are which are
easy pivots off of, right. So I think.
It's a good year for sharp builds I think.
There's definitely like there's four or five gimmies like layups
that anyone can put into the bloomer opto where it's just so
clear one guy separates on their team.
But then you start to enter the decision tree of like.
This can go a million different directions.
One of the things I was kind of hoping for was the Bengals would
make it in because as a road team against one of those, they
would have been pretty big dogs against whoever the Bills or
whoever they would have played. People would have wanted to.
I mean, this isn't necessarily for the boomer opto, but people
would have wanted to play. Maybe they're either fade them
or play the kicker or DST or whatever.
And we could have gotten that situation where you can play
like Jamar Chase. And like the the thing we always
talk about where it's like, yeah, like 6, a minimum of six
teams are going to play one game.
They're going to lose and they're going to be done.
But people want to play for that second game instead of being
like, well, Jamar Chase is a superstar, let's just play him.
And so he would have been really fun.
But the Broncos get in and you're like, I mean, that's that
was one of the ones when I started with Bubaracco.
I'm like, this is a this is a hard fade.
Yeah, nobody cares about the Broncos.
No one cares about the Broncos. Yeah, That's a pretty easy hard
fade, yeah. Three hours ago, that was me.
I will say actually. I actually did not end up with
the Broncos as the hard fade. Interesting.
But it's I also pivoted like last second.
OK. OK, let's I mean.
All right, we got we got Blair here.
Blair, welcome to the program. I was just about to do a little
table setting. Obviously, I would assume most
of the people watching this program on Monday know the FFPC
playoff challenge. But if we have some people
trickling in or watching this after the fact, this is a
contest where you submit a lineup.
There's not a draft. You could, you know, submit.
I, I believe it's like up to 150 If you, if you really wanted to,
I would not recommend that we have a hard time getting in, you
know, 10s and 10s of line UPS, much less in the, in the three
figures. But the beauty of this contest
is you just can pick one player from each team.
So, you know, if you want A.J. Brown, that means you can't have
Saquon Barkley. And so then the very fun element
of this game is trying to figure out what is the field going to
do. And a huge part of figuring out
what the field is going to do is what we're going to do tonight
with the boomer opto, get us close to the chalk build.
And then from there, the rest of the this week will be all about
how can we deviate off of that in a smart way?
How can we build a unique team that can finish in first place?
And I'll say, what would you guys say?
Pat Sawn, like in previous years, the chalkiest lineup.
There'll be a train of what, 100 plus of those 203 hundred?
There have been at times, I think the chalk lineup has
gotten less common in part because we've been doing
miscontents. So there's like a little bit
more, I think the field is changing like literally in terms
of who's playing it some and some of the newer people are
probably getting off the the Super chalk built a bit, but
it's still you're, you're, you're going to be duped.
If you if you play like the lineup that's super comfy like
you will, you will be duped in more than once and probably a
bunch of times. Yup, Blair, I know you guys just
did a podcast over on Rotoviz. Are you getting excited for
another year of the playoff challenge?
Definitely. This is, yeah, one of my
favorite contests of the whole year.
Just a lot of interesting game theory, and it's a fun one.
So yeah, definitely getting excited for this.
Our guy from Go Bills, Nick Constantino said.
Were you finishing second? And Scott Fishbowl?
I didn't hear about this. I just went and looked it up.
You wouldn't be the type to like tweet about it and break, but it
looks like you were right. I was, I might write an article
about it because I was also, I was also the last person in the
whole contest to draft a running back.
So. So I feel like that needs to be
publicized. Do you?
Do you regret that since you didn't finish in first?
Exactly. Yeah, right.
Yeah, that's your R BS year. Couldn't take it.
Down rather. Tell them in.
The tournament you're tell them the strategy, man.
Do I have oh the strategy? I don't know the strategy.
Was don't. Draft, don't draft.
Front back. Yes, and also draft.
I think I had Tucker and Bucker and Tyler Bass in my starting.
Oh my God, sweets. Wow.
Yeah, so Ave. Maria the shit out of it, it
got. Second, how bad were you tilting
that stretch from Tucker? Yeah, that was tough.
Tucker had a tough stretch but you know, he's still extra
points were like weirdly powerful and Scott Fishbowl, so
he hit enough of those thankfully.
Nice. It's crazy.
I scored like what, 277 points in the final week or something
and still lost by 20, so I don't even know.
Did. You have some sick tight ends I
assume too. I had Bowers and Kittle.
There you go. Yeah, there you go.
And the did you have any returners?
The return stuff was crazy. Yeah, the return stuff I think
is what ended up winning it with that Debo Debo return.
I didn't have a lot of return yards on my team.
Man, it was. An interesting year.
I didn't really pay attention to the the scoring format enough.
And then I got into the season. I did take a few returners.
I got into the season and I was, I didn't have a very good year
because I was like, yeah, I don't have the type, the right
type team players, you need kickers.
I picked up kickers mid season. I've never had a kicker before.
I pretty much every year I'm like, it's still fantasy
football, man. And then this year I was like,
Oh yeah, it was a. Little more.
Yeah, my issue was my league ended up somehow being on
sleeper and I just like hate managing leagues on sleeper so
much and I I I gave up pretty quickly.
All right, so I found the document that I made last year
on stream when we did the Boomer Octo Hero.
So. I figure I could just clone
this. We could start at 2025 here as I
mentioned with the with the rules you can see here.
Take my talk, Daigle. I was doing a little
editorializing apparently as we would perfect for our audio
listeners here. This is what the starting lineup
requirements are. It's just one quarterback, 2
running backs. It's the traditional FFPC line
up two wide receivers, tight end, but then we do get a couple
extra flexes, 4 flexes, kicker DST and then you'll notice here
the way it works with the amount of teams is 2 teams will not be
represented in your line up. So we call these fades here and
that will, you know, clean our slate here, but the.
Packers last year, we're one of the full fades and that's a
great example of a team where market didn't give them a lot of
opportunity to actually win in advance and they didn't have a
lot of exciting players if they did because they kind of spread
things out. And Josh Jacobs last year,
obviously, and they did. They dominated.
They won huge in Dallas and went on, I guess they only won the
one game probably, but I mean they went on to to play multiple
games and almost certainly had players like that was a that was
a key to this. Like you talk about the contest
at the beginning for people who aren't familiar, The key is
like, it's not like it's not who scores the most points
necessarily, It's who scores the most points at the various
positions from the various teams because you can only have one
player from each team. So like if Patrick Mahomes,
because the the Chiefs won the Super Bowl, is the highest
scoring QB, but Travis Kelsey is the highest scoring tight end by
a greater margin than the best lineup will not include Patrick
Mahomes. It will include Travis Kelsey
and a different quarterback because you can only play 1
Chief. So it's a it's a whole puzzle
that's very confusing. But you know, these fades and
these opportunities that that are, are there to to leverage
the things that the the market is not doing.
I remember last year it was like Romeo Dobbs was like a huge and
maybe it was at Dantavian Wicks too.
There was a couple. Aaron Jones, probably.
Aaron Jones. Yeah.
I was just like, if you had a Packer in your lineup, it was
like a, it was a, it was a Yeah, skeleton.
And and that's the thing at that, I do think that you're
here to get the great people that breaks people's brains.
Like a a good example, right? The the Ravens are the biggest
favorites on the wild card slate.
People are not going to really want to touch the Steelers.
But if George Pickens goes off for 35 points, you will have to
have George Pickens in your light up to win this contest
because he's going to be optimal from the losing teams.
Two of them won't be optimal because they probably won't have
a player who eclipsed as many points as George Pickett.
So you have to think through this versus the lens of both the
bracket, but also how can I get the most raw points from the
losing teams? From the losing teams, because
there's going to be a minimum of six teams, the teams that lose
this weekend that will play one game, which is probably going to
include the two fades, maybe the kicker in the DST, but a minimum
of two non fades, non soft or hard fades.
And then if the BI teams lose as well, there could be even more
teams who only play one game. And so you could have up to four
players, skill players, non kicker D, non fades that only
played one game. And so it like you said, Pete,
if it's George Pickens scores 25 points and he's the highest
scoring skill position guy from a losing team, you got to have
it. I mean, that's just a winds up
being a huge element because there's no opportunity for him
to then chase. He's not playing anymore.
And I think that's why chalk does form, right?
Because if you're building 1 lineup, it feels a lot more
comfy to fade the Steelers or you know, even maybe throw
Boswell in there or something, right?
It doesn't feel good to burn a skill position player and that's
why I think thinking through these leverage points and also
having a few bullets right and being able to play a few of
these scenarios that other people with a single bullet
would be too afraid to get to for.
Sure, All right. Aaron Jones had the three TDs.
The Jones he had Jake Ferguson, he had three.
TDs. You just missed you from a few
years ago if you guys remember. That's right, The Browns.
Pitts. The Browns.
Steelers game. That's right.
And we were making fun of Leonie for wanting to play him and
then. He wanted to play yeah, fast.
Pick It was his only 100 yard game of the whole year.
Last. His first.
His first? One too.
His first 100 yard game. Multiple, yeah.
He was also like 26 then, but we were like Leonie, you and your
olds, he. Was the oldest 26 in.
League. Yesterday.
Exactly. All right, Hassan, start us off.
Let's go with the biggest layup in the contest.
Who do you think is gonna be close to the highest utilized
player by the field here to kick off the boomer opt up.
Justin Jefferson. Yeah.
OK. All right, talk us through this
here. So this is like fairly easy,
right? We just saw the Vikings
absolutely lay a goose egg on just the other day.
Like, I mean, not the other day, just like last night.
Like he, he, we saw Sam Arnold mailing mailing balls.
Like realistically, people are going to be too scared to play
Aaron Jones. No one's really that interested
in Jordan Addison, who's been, you know, like living off of
long touchdowns. And TJ Hawkinson really hasn't
gotten the volume that you would think.
I think it just all coalesces down to Justin Jefferson, who is
like, again, probably like what a pick in the top 6 versus 6
like picks next year in terms of ADB.
So I think realistically you're going to see Justin Jefferson.
If there's one person who's going to catch 80% plus
ownership in this contest, it's probably just him because he is.
There's a possibility to get four weeks of Justin Jefferson's
smashes, and I don't think anyone's going to give up that
equity. There were only, I was looking
at some leader stuff. There were only two players this
year that had over 1300 receiving yards, which is kind
of low. Yeah, Chase had 17108, Jefferson
had 1533. So in terms of Chase isn't in
this contest, in terms of the Boomers having to find a wide
receiver to play, the guy who had 1500 yards seems like one of
them. Is that the easiest one?
Yeah, and, you know, I almost feel like Josh Allen is more the
the easiest click as far as separating from teammates.
But to your point, the way the Vikings have kind of limped into
the playoffs, there's not a single click that feels good
other than Justin Jefferson. Like if you had talked to people
a few weeks ago or, you know, back in Week 14 or whatever,
where they played the what was it the the Falcons and Jordan
Addison was coming off a three TD game, maybe it'd be a little
different. But right now with the offense
sputtering, I think it's just like Justin Jefferson's the one
cozy click. Let me put it in there.
All right, Sam, where do you want to go after Justin
Jefferson? This one's probably like, I want
to get back, like everyone else's thoughts on this.
But at quarterback, I really think like, it's going to be
Josh Allen, right? Like he's got to be like, if
anyone who's going to like catch 60% of ownership, it's Allen
with good reason, like, right, like he's got the possibility to
play four games. He just is a slate breaker.
Like, like this is a guy who's a threat to to go 40 points in any
given week, right? Like he is like, as, as Gretchen
was saying, like you, if he's losing, he's probably going to
put up a massive score. You still need it.
You guys are saying that he's really clear.
They they play the Ravens in the second round.
I was trying to think do this like we'll we'll get to
obviously the. Ravens.
Yeah, we'll get to that. But they play them in the second
round. It's in, it's in Buffalo.
Buffalo aren't home field advantage, which is meaningful.
The when they played earlier this year, it was in Baltimore,
but Baltimore beat them 3510. Like, I mean, are there going to
be some people that are going to look back at that and be like,
the Ravens are the one I want to pick to make a run this year?
I think people think this is Lamar's year.
Yeah. But like, I think that you're
going to, this is where it gets really tough.
Right talent here too, though. I think yeah, exactly.
And, and like, I don't think a lot of people remember some of
those early game, those early season like games, you know what
I mean? It's it's really like.
Plus, it's way easier to talk yourself into Alan Henry than
Lamar. Anyone else on the Bills it's.
Probably James Cook, right? Lamar James Cook.
Yeah, for sure. Yeah.
And it's just like of all you know, you can, when you think
about it through the lens of the Bills, it's a pretty easy
decision. There is a pretty loaded
quarterback, you know, class in this playoffs.
You know, you got Lamar Hertz. I think people get excited about
Jane Daniels a little bit too, what he could do if he made a
run. So there is some pull via
quarterback ownership, but I don't think the pull from other
Bills is going to be strong enough.
I guess some James Cook could get a little bit of love. 2V2's
of. Cook.
Cook, Lamar, Allen, Henry. And I think there's going to be
people who build with Lamar. They're like, all right, I'm
gonna do a Lamar team and then they're gonna get kind of
towards the end of like. If I'm gonna go to Allen.
This. Or same thing if you build with
Hertz and you're like, oh wait, I could get Saquon and Lamar.
I could get Saquon, Yeah, yeah. Before I hit submit, let me make
this Josh Allen, Derek. Let me take this team.
I'm gonna have to rename it from Allen Team.
Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
But yeah, no. And I think that's the other
huge chalk piece is probably this leads us to that because
it's it's the same 2V2 concept with the running back
quarterback. Yeah, yeah.
And you're. That's what you're saying,
right? Well, and you?
Should also. Yeah, Henry and Saquon, I think
the two. Yeah, those are the two easy
ones. And the other thing we, we
forgot to mention kind of outlining the, the rules here.
Obviously if you take, you know, one of the one seeds, you're
going to get zero points round one.
But that factor is offset a little bit because in the Super
Bowl, all points count double. So even if you take the 0 from
Jameer Gibbs in in round zero in the wild card round, if you go
to the Super Bowl and he goes for 30 regular points, you're
getting 60 there and can catch up on that wild card round
pretty quickly. We were talking about how the
one and done's are a real key and thinking through that and
being intentional about how you play the losers is a real key.
And and you're right, the the other real key is the very end,
right is a Super Bowl. You got to have your two Super
Bowl teams kind of figured out. You can play it a couple
different ways, but you want to believe when you're going to the
Super Bowl you're going to have the highest scoring player on
each side because those those points are going to be doubled
and whoever somebody can shoot up and pass you if you don't
have the highest scoring guy, even if you're in first going
into that. Yep, Yep.
So what do you think Hassan? Is it?
Is it going to these running backs?
Yep, I think, I think, I think that's pretty much it, right?
Henry and Saquon got to be your two running backs.
You just got to start it in. I mean, it's really hard to face
Saquon following the the the season that he's had.
And then same goes with Derrick Henry.
I mean, you're not going to believe me if I say this because
it's been so long, but people forget that Saquon went off for
three touchdowns in their first game against Green Bay on
Thursday night. Oh, we remember.
Oh yeah, yeah, we do, We do. But you know, it's just.
I think Saquon will be a lot chalkier than Henry.
I think so too. Because.
Because Lamar's going to catch
that ownership, right? Yeah.
And Andrews will will get. Andrews.
Andrews, yeah.
Who are? You playing a?
Tight end this year we don't have Rock Bowers and Trey
McBride are in the playoffs, right?
George Kittle's not in the playoffs.
This. Is one of those spots.
So I talk about the kind of sharp fades and and pivots is
that I think Kelsey is going to be a massive chalk and no one's
going to feel good about it. Nope.
But he but like it keeps you it keeps you from fading Derrick
Henry. It keeps you from fading Justin
Jefferson to go to Hawkinson, keeps you from fading Josh Allen
to go to Kincaid like it's the least gross.
Gives you a chief. Because what else?
He is who's who's going to play Pacheco?
Who's going to play Worthy? Who's going to play Hollywood,
Right? Yeah.
Hollywood. Yeah, who's going to, who's
going to have like the spine to fade the Chiefs?
People will fade them. I think so.
Last year I actually checked well, their second.
Round matchup is like. Is the.
Texans or the Chargers? I mean they.
Right, exactly. They're a good.
Spot like the last year faded KC and I think it was similar this
year. I think so too when?
7%, yeah. Was that total or hard?
That's total. Total fades 7.
So that includes kicker defense. Kicker defense and just not
selecting them, yeah. But there might be more this.
Year. See how it broke down?
They're harder to play this year.
Last year they were easier to. Play last year 1% did not select
A chief. Hard faded 4% KC Defense, 2%
Butker. But Pacheco was an easier play
last year by a mile and Kelsey was like he was struggling, but
this year he struggled the whole year.
Kelsey was, I think, an easier play last year too.
Yeah. Yeah, and it my day.
Was going to go out. The Chiefs weren't a number one
seed last year, right? So yeah.
You wanted to get all the points it.
Maybe helps with a It's easier to see an upset last year than
this year. Yeah.
Yeah, I mean, I think if all things were equal, like if you
didn't have the positional scarcity, like say there was no
tight end, it was just all flex, I think Worthy would give him a
pretty good run for his money too, just with how hard he came.
Off how much? Are we gonna play worthy just so
fucking? Much.
Worthy were gonna play like a good of feeling uncomfortable.
Yeah, play a. Little Hollywood, though, play a
little Hollywood. He's in that Rishi Rice role
right now, isn't he? Yeah, yeah, honestly, he, he,
he's look good too, but they're. Cover.
No one's going to play worthy, dude, no.
One. Are you serious?
I. Actually want to play Hollywood?
He's not what you're the you're the one who wanted to play like
Pickens and like a bunch of like drunk, which I think is actually
sharp. But you're talking to 2nd place
in the Scott Fishbowl. Watch your.
Mouth, I know we can't. We can't play 5 kickers.
Like I wanted to play Boswell. I think Boswell would be to
play. Well, there's the other thing I
assume we can. We can go ahead, Hassan, and put
Travis Kelce in here. Hell yeah.
Oh yeah, it also like the boomers, you, you can
romanticize the Travis Kelsey spot.
It's like this, oh, dude does it every year in the playoffs, you
know, might be sandbagging in the regular season, but he's
going to turn it on here, be the guy.
Like it's going to be a comfy click.
The the narrative St. for like Kelsey is ridiculous, right.
So it's like, oh, it might be his last rodeo with Mahomes.
It going to get him all this cheap little, you know, dink and
dunk targets, you know all that. Like just find a storyline each.
Other did it last year Is he did, yeah.
He did it last. Year did it last year and.
After the season, everyone was like, Kelsey's done, and then he
blew up in the playoffs. Yeah.
That's a great point. Find a story and like, I mean,
it's tough, right? Cuz you cuz like you don't wanna
play like Andrews or Kincaid. Well, Andrew's the only other
Titan who's gonna catch ownership after the Flowers
injury. But like, that's about it,
right? Yeah, but even Andrews, OK,
great. I'm playing Andrews, that's
cool. But I'm not getting Henry and
I'm not getting Lamar, who's by far the most fun second
quarterback. Exactly like.
Why don't I just play Kelsey instead?
It's the same thing. I've got Andrews in the lineup,
but if I put in Kelsey, I can play.
The you'll just wind up. You forgot the last part of that
too, is like I can't play Lamar, I can't play Henry and then I
turn on the wild card game and Isaiah likely has two touched
outs and I. Yeah, exactly.
It's just such an easy like,
it'll people will talk themselves back to this somehow
it'll come back here. I think you could do it being
really, really chalky in a way that's kind of nuts because
you're just, there's just not like really anyone else that you
feel comfortable clicking looking.
I think two years ago was his big, big chalk area.
Two years ago he came in at 74% and I don't think he gets there,
but last year he came in at 41%. I think he'll be well above
that. The top five tight ends in FFPC
points per game this year are not in the playoffs.
Bowers, McBride, Kittle and Joku.
Jonu Kelsey is the highest scoring tight end that's in the
playoffs. Good margin.
Where's Ertz relative to that? Kelsey was 15.3 per game.
Laporta was 12.8, Andrews was 12.7, Goddard was 12.5.
So those three are all clustered.
Next Ertz was 12.1, not meaningfully far behind Kate.
Auten was 12.2. He's in there too if he gets
healthy. So a bunch of dudes between 12
and 13 fire with 11.9, a bunch of dudes that are in the
playoffs between 11.9 and 13. But Kelsey was 15.3 per game,
even in a year where he only scored three touchdowns, didn't
have a great year. I mean, he's he's the play.
If you if you dig into this, who else are you playing at?
Tight end? Who else are you playing for?
The Chiefs, Yeah. Yeah, I mean, and it's two
guaranteed games the. Secondary talk, I think, is
going to be ertz. Yeah, yeah, exactly.
I agree. It's Ertz.
Wow, yeah. There's no opportunity cost.
Yeah, makes sense. And and coming off the monster,
the monster game in in 17, yeah, late season.
That's a good call. I could see, I could see a a
sprinkling at Tucker Craft. There those late, yeah, let's do
that. Those late season tight ends
have hit, have been played meaningfully.
People really wanted to play Blake Jarwin that year.
When you have like a couple touchdowns late in the year.
I can't remember who the other one was, but there was another
one last year that was similar who had a good end of the
regular season last year. Was it Schultz?
Maybe it was Schultz. Yeah, he had a good game, I want
to say I remember that. For the Texans last year, it
might have been Schultz. Yeah.
Schultz looked a little. Remember.
Remember how good the Texans were when they weren't building
the plane out of Joe Mixon? Guys, see.
Friarmouth getting any any love with his?
Kind of, no? No.
I really don't warm into the season.
I would much rather play bacon straight up.
They're still last season. Yeah, that's the that's the
thing. They are.
They're going to get. Faded or people are going to
play the Boomers might play some Chris Boswell and think they're
getting. Fat.
Yeah, exactly you. Know anyone want to guess the
total fades, hard fades and soft fades for Pittsburgh last year?
Oh my God. It was probably like 35% eighty,
yeah. So what did you say then?
Is that 85? You're closest 95.
Wow, that was. Trying to be.
Absurd 95. Percent.
Of the field did not select A Steelers skill player.
Wow, and they probably weren't 10 point dogs last year.
I mean. They what?
They played the Bills. Yeah.
It. Was outside, I think it was.
It could have been 10 point dot it.
Was a gross steam environment and like literally like the
temperature and stuff. And then no one believes that
they could win. Yeah, Kenny Peckett.
I was trying to figure out who their QB was.
Kenny Peckett was their quarterback.
They still had Deontay Johnson. Oh God.
That is wild. So that's.
Where I think like we're talking probably about 10% of the field
plays a stealer and most of them will play Pickens.
So I just like no room for a Friar mouth that's.
A good point. Yeah, Rudolf started that game.
Pickett didn't even play that game.
Makes it Rudolf. I guess we've all memory wiped
that, and probably rightfully so.
So we got Josh Allen, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Justin
Jefferson, Travis Kelsey, maybe one or two more layups here
before it starts to get interesting.
Hassan. Yeah, Puka Nukua is the other
one, right, A wide receiver. This was like, this is like
people are not digging the Karen Williams late season swoon
Cooper Cup is is fully dust. Like I really just think that
it's a very, very limited tree. And I don't think that people
are playing the the like Rams versus the Vikings.
I think you just want to go with the guy who's probably getting
double digit targets and he probably is the guy who you need
two could probably get you as scratched as saying like on a
losing team get you the most points.
This is the closest spread. 1.5 points.
Yeah, one point at least three people are.
Yeah. It was like you're saying people
are going to say, well, I play Jefferson and Puka and.
One of these two is going to. Whichever winner I have,
whichever loser. I get fine points out of it's
fine like one of these two is spot of the year.
Yeah, one of these two will get will go through and that's who I
want. You got to pick and like I want
to get your guys's stake. Is that like the right attitude
to have? Like is this good chalk?
These are the ones where we push the leverage button and we'd say
pick your winner and then. Either soft.
Faded on the other side or full faded?
The the other thing to that it's pick your winner, but it's also
be OK playing the running. Back at a loss like right
exactly that's you can. Play Tyron.
Yep, Yep. Well, Jones is tricky because
he's got he's dealing with that injury stuff.
Yeah, Aaron Jones is Aaron Jones.
Like I was trying to convince Blair like he was like a sneaky
pivot off of every like other Vikings receiver, but that the
injury was like what threw a wrench in it?
Yeah, this is going to be a tough one to push that leverage
button with Jefferson and Puka. Yeah.
Well, Addison's. Addison's an easy button,
Addison's an easier click, though.
Like Addison feels like a good like a leverage, like a good
like a leverage pick. But like off of puka, like how
comfortable are you playing Kyron against a very strong
Vikings defense? Like, I mean, we just saw Jameer
Gibbs like tear them up. But like, there's a very big
talent golf, in my opinion, between Gibbs and Kyron.
It it doesn't feel good, but Kyron is the ultimate leverage
because we've seen Kyron games, he gets 25 touches and if he
gets two goal line TDs, he's going to crater the rest of the
stuff. Keep puka out of the optimal
like from a leverage standpoint, it's very quick.
Yeah. He's he's the workhorse running
back. So like I do think that Puka
will be the the chalk and Kyron will be like there will be a big
gap between the two. But I don't expect that Kyron
comes in sub 20% more like around 25% with puka like
between 45 and 50 is the way I have it right now.
But. So.
I. You have puka at 45 or fit so in
my head it feels easier to pivot.
This is seems crazy. It seems easier to pivot off
Justin Jefferson. I can tell myself I could play
even I agree in a loss and play the Rams a lot even though the
Vikings are winning by, you know, are favored by 1 1/2.
But like the Rams are at home, I can tell myself they're going to
win. If Puka Puka is so dominated the
targets on a full PPR site, it's like Jefferson can have a game.
Where he doesn't have targets. They go to Addison and
Hawkinson. I'm with Gretch, I think Puka
will have higher ownership than. Than I think puka's like.
Feels like her size. That it's just the nuts right
now. I actually think there's no.
There's no running back that's going to take from.
Yeah, like I hear what you guys are saying, but like when you.
Don't. Think Kyron's going to pull that
much, honestly. I think he's going to.
I think. I think you have two more than
my own Rams guys. Yeah.
Like, yeah, I think viable Rams guys.
You can pivot off Jefferson to potentially Addison, who can
score on long TDs in a in a loss and outscore Jefferson.
He's done it multiple times this year.
He's scored by 1. He has in the.
Game and you guys have talked about Hawk and then it's like
you go play the kicker it's a high scoring game or you know
you go do like a soft fade or. Something a soft fade.
What's his name? Ryan.
Whatever. That's what.
Is his name. Filing in the soft fade on the
Vikings is going to be. That's who could in the Vikings.
Kicker is my like. I'm telling myself that's the
way to play it. Yeah, well, I mean, he kicked
like 60. Orders in a Dome, I think.
I think people will still play Cooper Cup.
How many people will play Cooper Cup?
I really think. Acting back games with three
targets, like I don't think anyone's clicking that.
Yeah, I really don't think so. Does he become you?
Know, I think he's going to be like, he's going to feel
Galvarin to people. Just play.
Yeah, just look like poker. Shoot, I have a plan then.
Yeah, two person you know. He's a he's a good play, but but
there's a reason why you're bringing him up.
Jefferson just had a three catch game and a must win game on
prime time. Yeah, well, yeah.
I mean like realistically like, well, like Darnold was like air
mailing throws. It was like a really bad, a
really bad like performance from the Vikings.
I think the Rams could do the same stuff that the good
defenses have been showing Darnold all year.
Like, I don't think it's a. Necessarily.
A. I think the market's going to
be. Really hard for for Puka to pass
Jefferson just because like you can play Kyron but it's tough to
play Addison or Hawk like. It's a it's and no one wants to
finish off of 1 bad game. Maybe they they finished the
season quite hot. But I think.
It'll be closer than I was thinking.
He did, he did. That's but that's what.
But that's where like you can see the narrative that people
are telling them is that like it's the same story.
Like Addison is like a deep play specialist.
I really don't think he's the right guy.
They probably trust Justin Jefferson.
You have a safe, you know, 9 point, you know, 9 target to 11
target floor. Like I really think, I really
think that that's like your two guys are going to catch those.
Those wide receivers are just going to buku ownership.
I'm really close now. I've been I've been building the
entire time. Yeah, and not that this would be
the end all be all, but I do. I remember doing this last year
and it's kind of fun to do a sentiment check on the underdog
ADP. And you know Addison goes 5
picks ahead of Kyron like over there like.
Oh, really? People, people like Addison,
like he's a, he's a sexier clique than it than you've seen
in the surface and. One of the things Boomers like
is touchdowns and Addison scores a lot of fucking touchdowns.
Like that's, I mean, he's a touchdown scorer.
So where do you guys have Kyron's ownership coming in?
I had it in the mid 20s. I personally done 12 now as I.
You done at 12? I would, I would if I I'll I'll
hop in and do some pro projections.
I think I probably have it at like 30.
It came. I would put the difference. 18
is what I would. Say, if you know what you want
to say. I mean, I think I, I actually do
think that like Addison gets, I mean, if you, if you really are
thinking more people are going to pay the Rams to win in home.
That's that's the biggest part for me is that you have to
figure out how many people fade the Rams and it might only be
about 20%, which allows more puka and Chiron, which is
probably what happens. It probably is because it's that
close line and people want to play it both ways.
People also Jewish. McCaffrey makes a good point.
Minnesota ATP Undertow was based on the possible bye week, so
that you're probably going to see a little bit more divergent.
So if I if I do it with 20% of the field fading the Rams, you
can get 60 Kuka and 18 Chiron? That feels pretty good.
That sounds about right.
Yeah. All right, Hassan, where are we
going next? Let's go with the easy one.
I think Pat and I have a couple of.
I have a lot of good overlap in ours.
Let's go with Lad Mcconkey in the flex.
This one's kind of an easy one as well.
Like just to see like he's really come on, ignore the I
mean, like, I really don't think like people would rather play
Mcconkey than than the Dobbins. QJ is not going to catch any
ownership, but this is not going to catch any ownership.
This is like a very, very tight spread.
I really think that that's where like people are just going to
like dig him. You know, there's something
about him that people just like, you know?
I do think people are going to want to take a charger because
they don't believe. In the Yeah, they don't believe
in the tax. But I I was really curious about
your thoughts on this. When I did did it really quick,
I threw Dobbins in there, but maybe that's interesting.
You're Dobbins. I don't think you need the
running back. And this is kind of the boomer
wide receiver architect, just like a target dominant white guy
white, you know? Exactly.
That's the the, the key underpinning one right there.
White guy, Yeah. All.
Right, I'm convinced. This one's tough.
I mean, glad did finish the season.
He's so strong. He gives you the comfy kind of
high floor with a ceiling. Warm fuzzies.
I could also see the Chargers being a team that people are
content playing through. The kicker?
And the defense. Because like that match up
first, the Texans, you can see that being a gross game.
They turn strout over sack him a bunch of times like this one.
I'm I'm not sure how close of a lock it is 'cause.
You could. Play it with Grego.
Exactly. I think you play Nico.
And maybe on the Texans, that's. So.
Bad. Like, I think.
Yeah, the Texan is really, really.
Yeah, but is it that bad on Nico?
It is. It is.
It's terrible. A lot of people kind of fade
both sides, like either soft or hard fade like total fade both.
Sides, I think people play the Chargers so last year we had the
Browns Texans, right last year wasn't that the.
Match, right? Yeah, yeah.
It was a rematch of Amari Cooper going for a million in the week
16 or whatever. So I projected that 36% of
people would fade the Browns, 51% would fade the Texans, 18%
faded the Browns instead of 36%. So I literally get I was twice
2X wrong. People didn't make that mistake.
They played A-Team to win, yeah. No, no, they also, well, yeah, I
guess that. Yeah, they played A-Team to win.
They played A-Team to win. That's right.
So, so like the one thing on the Chargers going for the Chargers,
if you've got like a name brand coach and Jim Harbaugh, James
Harbaugh, no, which which Harbaugh's one of the Harbaugh's
is there, right? So like whoever which, which the
one who I'm forgetting is there is his first year, you know, his
first playoffs back. There's like a narrative there.
Plus also LAD, people really want the LAD explosion game
versus the Chiefs next week, the week, Dave, because if you play,
if you play the Chargers to win and they get the Chiefs and you
can see like Mcconkey going crazy.
Same goes with Nico. But I really think it's like an
easier narrative. Click on Mcconkey versus Nico.
What I. Will say, I think Mcconkey's
been really chalky. I think he's gonna be way.
Chalky to see how you fill the rest of this out because I think
there are like at least three other wide receivers who I
believe might be chalkier than Mcconkey.
Yeah. Yeah, I mean like we discussed a
handful, so we'll we'll get to them.
Yeah. Yeah.
I don't think I don't think Nico makes that though.
Nico's probably just misses. Maybe.
Yeah, yeah. And maybe where I could come
around is if the market is going to want to play this as a
Chargers win, which I think they're going to, lad's going to
feel better. If the Texans were the favorites
or whatever, they'd want to play it more through through Nico,
probably. So, so the, so the, so the
market is actually baking in a Chargers win because they're
like -3 favorites away. Yeah, right.
So that's essentially giving them like almost like that's 2
field goals on, on their own home to home field, right?
So like, they're like the market really is expecting that the
Chargers should win. This is an away team.
Yeah. All right.
Where are we going next in the Boomer opto here?
You want to go with the last guy that we have overlap on bat?
Yeah, I don't. I'll have it up, but that sounds
good. Mike Evans.
Mike Evans, right, OK. Talk us through this one boxer.
Obviously a pretty interesting team.
This is a wide receiver heavy boomer boomer opto in a running
backs heavy season. I know it's so, it's so weird
because like none of the good, like none of the running backs
made it, man. I have a lot.
Of earthing on on mine I was like, I think they're going to
jam fucking running backs all day.
So I I don't think they're going to be jamming them right,
because like Mike Evans versus the commanders in like a 50.5
total game, especially because the commanders are kind of weak.
So this is where he does get tough.
But I do think Bucky could be the.
The big I think Bucky could. It could be.
Pretty close, yeah, because take Bucky over.
Evans, I think. Do you think so?
I think they're going to play the running back who's been
going for like 150 yards again. Happy to.
I mean, I'm more than happy to flip into Bucky if you guys
think because they, again like the commanders, are a bit of a
run funnel. Like they are run.
Funnel, yeah, run funnel. So we can, we can, we can flop,
I mean. Kind of crushing too though, so.
He has been slightly. Ahead this one.
This one was very close. This is really close, it really
the playing. The matchups like if you're
looking at that matchup and that's kind of a tiebreaker for
you, then I think you do. But how are like, but like, how
are you think the public is of like Rashad White, right,
Because like that's like your big corn in the side.
Yeah, honestly, Ben, what I kind of settled on, I was like Bucky
feels more like kind of our play, like he's the yeah, he's
the rookie he's been pushing in DFS, but.
He doesn't like Rashad White. For all the touches.
And but I don't know that Evans is projected to be like he
catches a bunch of passes too. And I think.
Mcmillan's come. On White, I would say how
worried are they about McMillan and Kate Auten too?
Well, like, I don't think so. That's the thing.
Rashard White is like an like is an established name.
McMillan and Auten is not. I mean, like Kate Auten is not
like if we look go back like 7 seven months.
I'm telling you that you've got to be worried about Kate Auten,
right? Like you would you would like
laugh, laugh in my face. Jalen Jalen McMillan is, is
real. Like he's like a real like he's
a real threat. Like no one wants to like he's
the one who's probably going to catch what 3% ownership at, if
that. 2. Two, right?
Yeah. Loving this.
I, I, I mean, if you guys, you might, he might have been.
We get to play a lot more Bucky, and I'm very into that.
Yeah, yeah. It.
Might just be the. Chalk though, so the the chair
thinks it's fucky. Oh no, Jewish McAfee, said
Evans. Slight chalk.
I think, I think it's split. I think there's a reason why
this is like, yeah, tough to and I think sentiment check on both
of those guys. We've seen the big Bucky games.
We've also seen games where they get in a trailing game script
and it's a ton of Rashad White, like if If Jade.
But that's. Bombs early like you know you're
not going to feel good about your Bucky shares.
But like the. Next here says Bucky's rush plus
receiving yards. Line is set at 111.5.
Yeah, I mean like, Oh yeah. So.
It it it. But like that doesn't matter.
That's not, that's not what we're trying to do here, right?
Like we're not looking at like the props line as like a basis
for where for what we think they should that should happen.
Reflective of what he's been able to do as a rookie.
He's not just any old background rookie.
Yeah. Right.
Yeah, well, yeah, but like but like but like the prop line, the
props and alteration to account that the fact that this is a
50.5 total, right and in the event.
But it's also a reflection of of the market sentiment.
It is. It is a bit of a but like the
other thing is because like when you think of it just a little
bit more right, like Evans gets targets in neutral script and
now you think of it in positive script or like, sorry, negative
script or in like a shootout script and like you're looking
at like what 14 targets on Evans, right?
Like that's that's where like it gets like really tough for me to
put in Bucky because you guys are saying the guy who.
Catches touchdown, I mean Rashad.
White Rashad White gets usage. It's not like it's not like you
know, it's not like you're just going to go away from not not
not off late, but like if they you like, imagine how until
she'll be if like when Rashad White gets like 6 targets and
they're down to touchdowns. Did he the biggest thing like.
He makes a good point. What Evans Way higher in the
default point per game sorting, yeah.
That's. There you go, Evans also.
Rashad White in a must win game Rashad White in a must win game
that they won late with 14 points in the fourth quarter.
We also saw. Team snaps in Week 18 and did
not touch the football. He didn't.
Get. A touch.
It was a must win game. They absolutely had to win and
they were watching the scoreboard and Atlanta went to
the to the overtime. It was very tense and they were
like, fuck this, We're done messing around with Rashad
White. He's not a good football player.
They've been doing that for the second-half of the year.
Just pulling up projections as well.
Bucky is projected for more points this week.
Which, you know. Yeah, part of it's a matchup.
But I think he's slightly. Bucky anyone?
He has not been playing very much like they.
Actually, yeah, he's running behind Sean Tucker.
Sean Tucker got two carries. They're playing.
They're playing white more. He was playing on pass downs.
He'll catch a couple passes or something, but he had 18 snaps.
Sean Tucker only played five snaps.
But that's the thing. He wasn't hurt.
He was playing. But Bucky got a 72% snap share
in that game that went to the fourth quarter.
They were trailing. They needed. 1/2 game but half
the chat is like streaming about like how Like Evans is just like
the actual quintessential boomer boomer wide riders.
I'm. I'm convinced.
I think Bucky's slight, slight chalk might.
Yeah, I think I. Think you might have like,
convinced me? Yeah, I think I didn't.
You guys have? Convinced me a little on Evans
too, because I do. Think I don't, Yeah, I don't
think it's. Going to come back to this.
Yeah, this either. Direction.
Like, yeah. You're not going to get leverage
playing one over the other. No.
No, no, not really. You just pick.
You have to pick your poison and then just go for it.
Yeah, All right. Who do we got next?
Hassan? No.
No Detroit Lions yet. No.
So this is where, this is where we defer bat.
You want to give your your spiel.
Yeah, so I I have Gibbs, right coming off the massive
touchdown, 4 touchdown game. Montgomery is going to be back,
I guess. But like the field did not play
like any Mark Andrews last year. Like that's that's in the
future, man. I just saw Jameer Gibbs go nuts.
He's their whole team. They're going to they if they go
to Super Bowl, they're this guy's going to absolutely
explode. I'm not sure I'm not taking
some. I can get what dude, I take Puka
and Jefferson. I don't got to worry about wide
receiver. You only got to start two.
You play at the six run backs only got to start 2 wide
receivers playing Gibbs baby. Yeah, that's that's The thing is
that like, I can see that and then I see the other side of the
coin, which is like, hey, like David Montgomery's coming back.
He's going to get all those high leverage touches.
Jamir Gibb is going to have to keep scoring from like 30 plus
yards out. I don't know if it's possible
that he can do that. Give me a Montrose Brown.
You know how young you sound when you say that.
I know, right? Yeah.
Like an 18 year old just. How many receivers did you put
in your boomer? This has been the biggest
running back year ever and you just put receivers in your
boomer? Office.
Yeah, I'm telling you, dude, like it's just, it's just so
hard when you have these names, man.
Like what scissors did you go? To.
Like all the ones that were not like, taken away through
bankruptcy. I saw him, I think, I think
you're off on this. I think this is Jamir Gibbs.
You think it's going to be a Gibbs?
Slide in a lane. The first running back I put in,
I hadn't thought of Barkley yet. I was like a lion O Gibbs.
And then I and then I was like, oh, I got to get Barkley and
Henry in here. I don't think it'll be close
either. That's a tough eat.
So that yeah, I had like. Not that close, but the other
way, yeah, I think it's. Clearly almond raw.
I think so, but I mean, I like, obviously I know what you know,
You see what Gibbs did last week, but I think with
Montgomery coming back, people are going to be scared off.
Is one of the only receivers to average 19 points a game.
You know. Because I think you can, you can
free roll the David Montgomery stuff coming back because you
can say, hey, they've coexisted throughout the season.
We've seen them especially in up tempo games.
Those are the games really where Jameer Gibbs is reaching his
ceiling. So even if he comes back, you
can hit that. And if he doesn't come back,
he's the first player you need to put in your line up without
question. So like you.
Guys know who finished with Week 18 as the overall RB one in
fantasy football this year? Yeah.
It wasn't Saquon or Derek Henry. It was Jamir.
Yeah, it was. He's got.
He scored. 4th That's and. He's think he could easily, and
he's going to have a case to be the 101 in fantasy next year.
Yeah. But Allman Raw's also going to
be a first round pick. I was just thinking of that.
Like they're both first round. One is a running back and this
is the boomer rock though. That's right.
Yeah, We, we did talk about that during the Thanksgiving show
about like, would you take Gibbs 101?
Because he is is in that content like in that in that in that
stratosphere right now, I. Mean.
It is it is tough, man. Like I like I really think that
like Gary Montgomery. I mean, like realistically the
answer here is like Jameson Williams is like the sexiest
pivot, Sam the Porter, like such easy pivots.
But like getting that that one is like the same Mike Evans
versus Bucky. We talked about how how Evans
and Bucky Evans is really a pivot.
But by the way, Pete, I think we should change the Evans 1 to
Bucky. Yeah, but if you need a Bucky.
I love the chat. Is this the zoomer opto?
This. Is we can do a zoomer?
Opto I'm in the wrong? I'm not convinced that he
deserves to be the landslide. I'm going to put both of them
up. Yeah, it's it's a tough.
I really do think that like I think Aman, I think, I think
Aman Raj is in like the same same issue there.
So I have Gibbs currently at 69% and Aman Raj 22.
Wow. Do you have?
What do you have for David? We're not editorializing on what
we think is right here, but. Then Montgomery No.
Yeah, I know, I know. This is the Boomerasco, right?
That's not. I just think almond raw is gonna
be a lot more popular than that. Yeah, if anything, if anything,
it's the other way around, right?
Bucky Irving is a popular one because he's getting all the
touches. And Jameer Gibbs is going to
have to split time by David Montgomery, so he should go
among rock. I can't.
I can't even concede. I don't even remember who David
Montgomery is. Dude, I just saw him.
Score 4. Touchdowns to get the one.
Seat Who's David Montgomery? Everybody in football, I'm.
Telling you, dude, every time David Montgomery scored during
the regular season, everyone who's a boomer was all over.
My timeline says Montgomery is just doing it.
He just does it again and again and you're.
Like it's what have you done for me lately and Jameer Gibbs.
Really is. World beater lately.
If. This wasn't the.
Week 18 Sunday Night Football 4 TD game.
If that game didn't happen, if Detroit could wrest their
starters or whatever because the Vikings lost the week prior, I
think you guys would have a case that it could be Almanrock.
The fact that that game happened on Sunday Night Football to
clinch the bye. The chat couldn't be more with
the Gibbs. We're getting.
Yeah, they're all about the
Gibbs. Gibbs in a landslide gives 100%
zero question. Yeah.
Do you want to go to? You're talking about Montgomery,
Mac Nova said. That was weeks ago.
Yeah. The thought is just trying to
get some cheaper Jabir Gibbs ownership for his old lineups.
I can tell he's just trying. To you want to go, do you want
to go? Do you want to go Bucky over
over Evans then or not? It is close though can leave it.
That one's close. That one is.
We're going to. Leave that one's.
Close. I think it's like a toss up.
Yeah, yeah. But you.
Guys are saying Gibbs and almond raw.
Not even close. Not a toss up.
I don't think it's not the way people play this.
I think the first thing that comes to mind is Gibbs.
Yeah, I think. It's actually be one of the
very. 6535, yeah. He's like a preload.
It's like Henry Barkley, Gibbs are almost preloaded in these.
That's what it. Feels like oh God man.
It is going to make Almond Raw a really nice play.
How much, how much almond he's going to have He's.
One of the best. Boys, how are you?
Yeah, he's like, oh, we're going to go broke.
Worthy and almond raw like this. Is great, still happy to play
him if his ownership's above like 40%.
Yeah, whoo. Almond raw.
Yeah. Here's.
The question. Here's the question I got.
For you guys. Will you have the balls to play
a lot of Laporta because. Yeah, Sound Laporta could be
scoring. And Laporta could score like 4
TDs and run away from the that's.
All you need. Yeah, I know we discussed this a
little bit on the pod last night, but we were looking at,
we really settled on Jameson Williams.
But Laporta is. I bet 14 he's in three games,
but yeah, he could wind up being a tight end.
One, he could wind up being it, right?
Yeah, Yeah. That's true.
Tight end is so weak that Laporta could be the difference
maker there. Yeah, Laporta could.
Be yeah and people might not want to play him because if they
had the bad case in them out from the one taking him in the
1st. For sure.
And I think that comes out of Amanran, not.
Yeah, come to the I didn't come out of Gibbs.
Yeah. Because you're like willing to
not play Gibbs. That's a certain type of person.
And then that person's like, Laporta could be a good play,
right? Yeah, that's right.
All right, this is. Maybe the last big you're.
Right. This is the big we really were.
Sorry, I'm still on Gibbs. But when we were looking at it
last night, we were, you know, I was thinking Gibbs was like the
most exciting play cuz I thought he wouldn't catch as much
ownership as Almond Raw. But probably everyone is, in my
thinking the same thing. So maybe you're right, yeah.
Yeah. Seems likely that's another to
me, like, you know, with the ownership stuff like if you're
thinking, oh, Gibbs almond raw will be the chalk, but I'm so
excited to play Gibbs. That's cuz Gibbs, actually.
That's cuz Gibbs is the chalk right?
Now that makes sense, yeah. All right, Hassan, what's our
last flexed error, Pat? This is the one where we have we
really disagree. Another different teams,
different teams, different teams.
So this this one, I was with Hassan at first, my first run, I
had the same player that Hassan has in here.
But again, kind of got to the boomer, boomer mindset.
Went down, had a couple of pints at the bar and talking to some
locals and I was like, we don't have, you know, part of it's
that Hertz isn't clear from the concussion protocol yet.
We've we've got a Packers team that is so built to run through
Josh Jacobs. I just think he's going to be a
comfier click for a lot of people.
If I got to, yeah, if I got to feed the commanders, then I'll
feed the commanders, you know, 'cause I think the commander's
pick is one people will want to make.
They'll want to play that game both ways.
But Jacobs is ultimately comfier than the Commander's stuff.
Yeah, I think really it's like the fact that like Hertz is
still in the concussion protocol, that makes Jacobs
easy. My pick here was Terry Mclaurin.
Just because you want to play both sides off that 30.5 total
game. Makes sense, right?
So it's like that's where it gets tricky because this depends
on like realistically it comes like it comes up through like
who you're deciding to hard fade is how that really that shapes
how you're going to and soft fade.
It's going to change or shape the entire what you think is a
chalk because like this is where it gets really tough.
Jacobs versus Because it really is like the whole reason I wound
up fading Jacobs is because I think people just don't see him
as that guy who would score as much as you need.
He'll score you as much as as like what you think his median
outcome would be. But if the Eagles come back out,
they absolutely dominate. They decimate the backers at
home. Jacobs is getting phased out
pretty quick. He's like there's like you.
Guys seen his goal line rushing right and this guy scored a
touchdown in each of the last eight games, a rushing TD in
every single one of those games, and has three rushing TDs in two
of those games. Yeah, now.
People, people are gonna get DVP DD with the Eagles defense.
They're gonna worry about a game script.
Yeah, he just gets taken out. He's gonna be Jaden Reed now.
Christian Watson. I 100% agree if people play the
Packers be a skill position player it's Josh Jacobs, but I
think they'll probably be soft. Faded going, going for the yeah,
going. I think.
I think they're gonna be hard fading the Packers.
Liam. Said versus, but mine's, mine's.
Basically. Here's carry over lad, which
would mean no charger or. Some people will do that.
Some people will do that, yeah. This.
Is a phase fade the the Houston? Sides of the Houston Yeah,
that's a low total game. It's 42.5.
That's kind of a cardinal sin though.
Don't. Yeah, that's.
A No no. That's a no no.
Terry was a guy I put in early and then I thought through it
and I was like, I I think they're going to wind up being
faded a little bit. What the fact that?
It's time might be right on this one, just in terms of what teams
people play. Yeah, I think they don't want,
they don't want, they don't want, they don't want, they
don't want like a decision there because like, Terry's been so
good, dude. He has, I mean, score a lot of
points. You talked about the game total
on your right, that's kind of a shootout.
The other. Thing is, besides like the
Chargers and Vikings, I think that's a game that would be like
a popular upset pick. Yeah the Viking, they like the
the commanders and if you get him going then hey, you get 22
Terry Mclaurin games right good for me the.
Thing the thing about the commanders too, like I agree I
think Terry's a really good play but he is he does doesn't feel
comfortable for a boomer selecting it.
We've seen Zach Ritz games, we saw Zacchaeus Zacchaeus pull up
for a massive game like they spread it around.
We saw Noah Brown out target Terry Mclaurin for like 5
straight weeks there for a while.
Like he is not a comfy click. Brian Robinson isn't either
though, and I don't think Austin Eckler is.
I think Austin, is he done for the season, Eckler.
You will see like some some mixing, you'll see some.
Yeah, you'll see the mixing. You'd probably see some Nico,
probably a lot more Nico than there's going.
To be like a mix of like, this is where you start.
There's like a team because like everyone's going to fade the
Steelers. That's like the Steelers hard
fade is probably going to be the chalkiest, one of the chalkiest
players in the tournament if you consider it a player.
But then there's like the Packers, the Commanders and the
Texans, they're going to be in like they get faded a lot, like
above 50%, probably less than 70% in terms of total fades, but
you're probably rotating through.
All three of those teams have, I think, a clear play.
I think Jacobs is the clear play if you're going to play a
Packer. I think Nico and Terry, we all
agree, are pretty clear if you're going to play those.
Teams. Nixon will get some.
Basically, we'll get some Nico gets some right.
So it becomes so I so like from like the remainder of the
skilled players, right? Like when you start thinking
about it, like Gary is like the easiest click amongst like the
best of them. You see, you see what I mean?
Like it's it's like you're looking at like from a name
brand basis. Like that's where that's where
it gets people onto Gary. Like that's where you Jacobs V
Jerry becomes becomes an actual decision.
Do you not think Nico has that same name brand?
The issue is a total. You're looking at like eight
points difference between the. Two, yeah, people, it's
basically that people think Jane Daniels is way better than CJ
Stroud right now. Yeah.
So it's like, I want Jane Daniels, receiver.
Yeah, like, I don't want to see Nico Collins put up 11 points in
a loss because they gave Joe, Joe Mixon 23 touches.
The more I think about it, I might, I think ertz might really
get some steam. That's the way to play the
commanders. I think it's the comfiest way to
play the commanders. When you were talking about
Maclaurin not being an easy click, I mean it becomes.
Ertz yeah, then it becomes ertz right.
That's the I mean, I'm not saying.
Over the That's the Kelsey Chalk, because there's no other
chief to go to, really. Yeah, yeah, like no one's going
to feel comfortable with worthy. They might just pick their
poison with the receivers a little.
They might take some Hollywood. They might take some, you know,
new Hopkins, who knows? You know, Yeah.
I don't think they anyone really plays Hopkins or anything.
I think maybe Worthy gets some I.
Think worthy gets a little Worthy probably gets what it's.
Worthy will get some for sure. I think Worthy's definitely
getting some. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
But like, like when you say some like are you thinking 12% + 8%
plus? No sub 20%.
I was thinking that Hollywood and and Hopkins could combine.
Yeah, Hollywood and Hopkins get some.
Right. Three receivers could combine
for 28 or something. Right.
And then what? Like like so then worthy counts
for like 12% of that and the other two count for like 8:00
and 8:00 or even like 10 and something like.
That like the Packers last year, people played Dobbs, people
played Christian Watson, people played Wix even.
Yeah, you got to get the. You just get the right, you get
the right receiver, right. And that's about it.
That's where. That's where like the.
Maclaurin V Node Maclaurin will project significantly better
than ours. Yeah, because of the, because of
the total, right. Like you you can get them what
what is the at like 17 points? 18 points?
Yeah, I do think he's an easier click than than what Pete was
saying. I I think people are going to be
a little bit OK with Mclaurin. Because you you like think about
the Mclaurin place like Mclaurin like he's he catch his
touchdowns so. Tough man.
Well, and you talk about boom like boomers have been loving
Mclaurin for years. They've been saying he's way
better than his stats say he is for a long time.
Yep. Yeah.
And but now he's having the best year.
Points and he had a lot of touchdowns, which we've already
established. Touchdowns Max.
And you just don't. You don't, do you?
Want to put Terry in here for right now?
Yeah, we can put Terry in and see how the software's and
everything else. That makes me want Bucky even
more, though, because I mean, you guys, you think they're
playing five receivers this year, they're going to get
itchy. I had 6 dude, I had a Montreal
right? So I had 6 Bucky.
Yeah, in the. Flex, it probably.
Is Bucky up there? Yeah, not I think about it a
little bit. More are are Broncos The other
obvious chalks Fade, yes. So, so initially I had it.
I had it as Steelers we. Had that.
So like neither of us have that. So I initially had Steelers
Broncos because like the it's pretty easy to you did Broncos.
DST OK, I did will. Yeah, I I did Broncos DST
against Alan. Will Lutz on the road with one
of the lower team totals. So like, yeah, this is where
like that might really depart, right.
So like Broncos so like so like the Broncos DST.
What got me on them Yeah, he's is the fact that I don't think
the last. Broncos DST against Josh Allen,
he actually hasn't turned the ball over at all this.
Year so, so, so. This is where it gets tough.
So who? Who would you grab?
So put your boys in here grass. Broncos DST or Packers DST?
And against maybe the possibility that Hertz doesn't
play if. Hertz doesn't play, then it's
Packers easy here, right? But I'm wait.
No. What about what about Houston?
Why couldn't? You play Houston, so it's like I
had I had Kami Fairbairn as my kicker, 'cause they're at home
in a low scoring environment in a large kicker.
Is also projected pretty poorly. It's yeah let's random McManus
are all projected like shit. Also with Boswell so all the
kickers from the teams you want all project like shit.
Yeah. That people are going to talk
themselves. Into So that's the the Broncos,
because of the weather and the fact that they actually get home
a little bit and they can get a couple of sacks and maybe a
little bit of turnovers. Here's the other thing that
could happen. Boswell could end up feeling
like the comfy kicker, even in a loss, just because.
He even in a loss because that's where he does, yeah.
Love what Boswell did for the team.
This year that was, that was where it was.
That's where it got stuff. For me, it was Fairbairn.
For me it was Fairbairn. V Boswell were the only two
tickers I really contemplated when I was building this out.
That's where I started with. Boomers might play Boswell but
he is the lowest team total. They're 10 point dogs and a 43
over under. I mean, that's I.
Actually think Dicker could pull some ownership off Mcconkey,
which is one of the reasons I was a little skeptical of.
Yeah, but but that's why. But that's why I went with.
But that's why I went with Boswell.
That's why I went with Boswell. I think.
Yeah, 'cause then it's Nico, right?
Yeah, cause 'cause like 'cause it's either Nico Dicker or it's
Mcconkey. You're right 'cause the Chargers
are hard to play, they might get soft faded a reasonable amount,
but I mean like we're just talking about some.
Some people might not play either side of the Texans
Chargers then in the skill positions, then they might play
Decker for sure. I.
Think that. I think that.
Could be still. Position Bowl, we've had a few
of those like the kicker defense, Chargers, Texans, I
think could be a skill position bowl because it's you can get a
comfy click there in the opportunity cost with Ladd and
and Nico doesn't feel sky high. Yeah, right, yeah, right.
And that's that. But that's that's where it got
in a really tough because I think like Fairbairn when I was
putting him in there, I was like, yeah, you play with the
Texans loss, you're just hoping the game stays really close.
They use mix them a lot. You get what, like 12 points all
right? Not bad.
Wait, Pete, sorry, you were saying that you think they're
going to A lot of people are going to play Lad and Nico
together. No, no, I'm saying I think they
could they that could be the soft fade.
Ball the soft fade ball. Kicker and.
Defense, kicker and the defense, yeah, but becomes dicker because
then it becomes dicker, then it becomes dicker and Dicker and.
Dicker and Texans. Texans, right?
Yeah. And then, and then, and then you
can play. You can flip it.
Or you could flip it you play chargers D in in dicker like
that. Well, yeah, one you're
Fairbairn, right? Yeah.
Both could be popular and then
you you get Jacobs instead of Mcconkey, right?
Yeah, and you play Jacobs instead, right?
Yeah. And then?
You put the Broncos are the clearest.
I think you played. There you go.
Yeah. Seriously, I feel like the
Steelers DI could talk myself into before the Broncos.
The Steelers could sack Lamar, make him fumble like.
He's actually the same. The same.
Story goes with the Broncos, right?
It's a it's a bad weather game in Buffalo, you know, like they
could get home. Broncos D has gotten home a lot,
a lot more than a lot of the other remaining DS.
They have a lot more hurry UPS, a lot more pressures, a lot more
sacks. Something could happen.
The skill position players aren't great, you know, you
never know, right? Like like you could talk
yourself into that. It's just so tricky.
But again, like, that's where that's this is like like it
sucks, but like heart fades and the soft fades is is really like
like that's where everything gets messed up.
Yeah. I think one of the things people
do with the even with the soft fades is they go well.
If this team has a shot to upset, I want at least to have
their kicker in A2 game thing. Whereas the hard fades are like,
this is a team I think has no chance to win.
And I think that's the Broncos. They're like, I can't play them
because I think there's zero chance they can win this game.
People don't believe the. Broncos, that was that, that was
my first. That was the first story I told
myself was that like the AFCI was saying I messaged bat.
I was like, yeah, the the narrative here is like it's AFC
has like 2 really bad team that you just don't want to play
anyone from. So you just.
Which is supported by the Lions. 8 1/2 points in Buffalo, 10 in
Baltimore and a half. Yeah, more points are closer.
I mean, you're talking about a massive gap.
So here's a question because I'm hearing, I'm kind of hearing a
story unfold here. Yeah.
We actually don't want to be fading the Texans as much as as
like, you kind of have to. Based on the you probably want
to play Nico a little bit, but. I want to play Nico.
I'm gonna play Little Mix in. We don't want to fade both sides
of that game. We don't mind playing Zach Ertz
but now all of a sudden I don't need to play Travis Kelsey
because I got tight end filled. Like I said, only 7% of the
field faded KC last year, but 23% of the field faded.
The Ravens were kind of the unsexy if you're not playing
Lamar. So I I wonder if a a big portion
of the field fades KC. Harrison Bucker action in here.
In Harrison, Bucker becomes pretty.
Wow, and we found the wood kicker the boomers all fucking
love. I mean, I love to get back in
the kitchen. I.
Mean. Oh God.
Jeez. Wow, I thought he was going to
be tricky. Brought us around too that's.
A good one. I don't think he, I don't think
he passes Kelsey or anything, but I think.
I think there's been a lot more fading.
Of KC than I was originally assuming.
The only interesting that is for anyone who's paying attention to
the to the schedule. Casey does have such a nice
situation where we're talking about LA and and Houston not
wanting to play either of those teams.
If Baltimore and Buffalo both, we win.
That's who Casey hosts. I mean, if they're hosting and
they're going to destroy him, LA maybe is a tough out.
And if if Baltimore, Buffalo loses, they get that team.
So they get Pittsburgh or they get Penn because of the way it
was. That's a, that's a good point.
It's a, it's not a very good base.
Yeah, yeah, man, I still think they get paid them.
When they. Should.
But not in this, in this iteration, we're what we're
we're we're Packers DST. You put backers D Yeah.
And and Fairbairn, Yeah. Fairbairn, yeah.
Packers DST is kind of a tough one, you're right Asan, because
you're like the Eagles are favored by 4.
They're just. Going to run all.
They just don't get home. That's half the temps against.
That's why I still think the Broncos are probably your best
bet, because you're. Going to yeah, that's that's why
I remember Broncos, because because the Broncos also get
pressure and you get the sack points.
That's what I was thinking with Lamar actually.
I feel like Lamar is more of a pass heavy quarterback than an.
Allen, right, an Allen. Yeah, because that's the thing,
I think the Broncos. Defense has played better than
the Steelers, though, which might.
Matter the Broncos defense, yeah, I did some research on
this. The Broncos defense out of all
these like all the four that are remaining, they're kind of the
best at like hitting the passer, getting to the passer, putting
pressure on and also defending the pass.
They're just like all like all around just better at it.
That's why I hard faded the Packers because I don't think
they've got the juice like enough for like to deal with the
Eagles. The Eagles are actually a pretty
good against wide receivers. Josh Jacobs can get his like 15
points or 16 points. It like you got your stake on
Barkley and your board does. That Doctor Evil's comment here
that he's playing almost all the boomer OPS though, except they
have QJ in there to own. The Boomers.
You just make the one pivot to get you.
The one. The one the 1.3% play, but that
but that, but that's where I was coming out with the Broncos.
I do I do think that the weather does play a bit of a bit of a
even though they're on the road, the weather plays like a little
bit of a a factor there. And because like I just think
Fairbairn is a such a comfy click in like a dried game
environment. It might even have the Dome up.
You know, like you're, you're hoping that Mcconkey plays two
games and then you're hoping you know like it's a low scoring ish
game but Mcconkey gets his nine for 95 or whatever and Fairband
gets his like 3 field goals right?
It's not gonna be their kicker in DST.
The boomer opto's gonna have different kickers in DST, yeah?
Yeah, for sure. Yeah.
It's just, it's just just this is how like this score is
actually. The the.
Yeah, we wouldn't. Yeah, because like bats got the.
Texans in there. That's how I end up in the
kicker. So it's like, yeah, we'll have
to score points against the Broncos.
So it's lots. Yeah, so like, so that's, that's
how I went. Like I, I, I went with Fairbrand
first and then I was like, all right, it says Broncos, 'cause I
did. It was, I literally had this
line up at one point too, and I was just like.
I think I would do Texans DST and I think I would do Boswell
'cause they fucking love Boswell, right?
And then? Go, go, go, Packers.
Go Packers. Packers are a aid.
Yeah, yeah, Packers are. Aid.
Maybe it's the edge? Kicker.
I don't know. It's going to be.
I didn't mean to make you change it.
No, no, no. Like this is this is, this is
like the way it goes because like it's so tight there, right?
Like like Fairbairn's going to get what, like 28% maybe.
And then like Boswell, like night like it's, it's close.
Like this is like that's the issue.
This is going to be split. Yeah, the only reason I went
with Fairbairn was because of weather.
Like that's the only reason is because it's like dry and like
Domish, like Boswell will be in Baltimore.
That's outside. Lots is going to be outside.
Backers will be outside. That was like the only way I
wound up on. I do think you.
Guys are overstating the possibility that the Broncos are
just full faded or overstaying the possibility that people want
to play the Broncos even as a kicker AD because they think
they're so dead. They think they're such a bad
team that they're like, that's the team that can't win, that
can't do anything, has no chance.
I have to full fade that team. Yeah.
I mean, like, yeah, that's that's the.
First full fade. People will talk to themselves
and the Steelers can beat Lamar. Lamar chokes in the playoffs,
Steelers division. Mike Tomlin will beat him.
People don't like the Broncos. Man.
I've been dealing with this all year with like a.
Little bit of bone, No, no one wants to talk about Bonex's
possibly being better than Caleb Williams, right?
They no one wants to talk about that yet.
Everyone hates Sean Payton. Everyone hates their whole
fucking team. The way they spread the ball
around, dude, they're fucking they're, they're not going to
get played. They're going to be 85% full
faded, hard faded. OK all.
Right. People are going to remember the
Marvin Mim Mim Spain like. Who that's I mean that's the way
I see it, but I could be wrong, but I mean.
If someone plays the Broncos as an upset, what are what are they
playing Sutton? Sutton.
Yeah, I think that's the one thing they have going for him.
The Sutton is a clear play on his Sutton.
If you're playing Bronco, you just play Sutton.
And you go. They're going to have to score
points because The thing is, the Broncos have been aggressive in
turn, you know, they put up points like they've been fun at
times. And so you know.
And you can't play him on the Josh Allen team, right?
You, you can play him on the Josh Allen team.
You can that that game's going over, right?
Like, yeah. Allen's pushing them.
It's actually good for Allen. Right.
It's actually good for them, right?
Yeah. Yeah.
All right here. It is obviously hard to fully
stick the landing this year, but I will read what is up here on
the screen. Josh Allen, that ones a Gimme.
We got the two poster boy running backs for this season,
Derek Henry and Saquan Barkley. Justin Jefferson and Puka Nakua
going against each other. Our old familiar face Travis
Kelsey cranking it purple. This is where it starts to just
get a little dicey lad. Mcconkey here, a split on Buck,
Mike Evans versus Bucky Irving. I would actually lump Jameer
Gibbs in with kind of the the locks up there personally.
Terry Mclaurin here. Rounding out the flex.
We went with Fair Baron kicker, Packers DST and then fading
Steelers Broncos. Mileage may vary with the fades
and soft fades though, but I think this is a a pretty good
starting point if you're trying to figure out how do I leverage
the chalk build this week. Where do we think the the the
biggest one off pivots are? I think they get itchy with
receivers. And the itchy one quarterback?
Well, none. None of the quarterbacks.
When I look at these, I do wonder if if we don't get a
little bit of Chiron or a little bit of Aaron Jones, because
those are the better. Receivers, I don't think you get
Aaron Jones good injury. Or I guess just tie on them.
But so it becomes it becomes Bucky, right like your your
other flags that moves from like Evans dwell that Evans Bucky
like he goes to Bucky. I think you might get some
mixing over Mclaurin. I can mix.
I wanna go mix. I wanna go running back.
I just put in mixing. I just or take out.
Mcconkey and play the Texans to get Yeah, it's Jacobs.
Yeah. It's mixing Jacobs coming in for
Ladder. Terry, that's right.
Yeah. I think those, I think those are
your two exactly 2 pivots, right?
Like. And I think that keeps Nico.
I think mixing is probably higher than Nico.
Higher than Nico. Yeah, I think so.
I I'm with you 100. Because I Texan it might be
because you want to play that extra running back to win.
Yeah, and like. I don't know about.
That because Nico's to have your cake and eat it too.
I can play a hit and a loss or I get him running in a win.
Whereas Mixon, it feels like you have to have him winning.
But the booze thinks that's also running backs.
Yeah, that's that's the thing. I think.
I think, I think that's The thing is that like both Jacobs
and Mixon score fairly well even in losing because like you can
see them talking themselves into, oh, Mixon's just going to
get a lot more targets. There's just going to be a lot
more. The O line is so bad, they're
going to dump off to Mixon a lot, right?
Like mixers? Are a little bit of a run funnel
too, right? Yeah.
One thing that I'm struggling with this year, as I'm going
through, I've been kind of dialing in the ownership and
stuff. The the fades, I have all fade
categories too high. I'm going to have to go through
and like stop. It's like there's the teams you
want to play and then the teams you don't want to play, yes.
That's like the, that's like the first category, right?
Like who you want versus who you don't.
Yeah. And then that's.
Like George Pickles? Like Cedars Broncos instantly
and I don't want to pay these fucking guys a bucket.
Right. I think, yeah, playing, playing
guys from teams that people aren't going to want to play, it
will be. Yeah, Pickens is the like a
couple years ago, maybe it was last year we did.
It wouldn't have been last year because Pete Carroll got fired.
It must have been two years ago, but we did DK Metcalf when they
were like massive underdogs and he was the nuts because he
scored a bunch. As we talked about earlier, you
have to play players in a loss. If Pickens goes out and has 150
and two in a little bit of a shootout where the Steelers do
lose, their whole offense is run the ball and Chuck it deep to
Pickens. They don't do anything else, you
know. Yep.
And like, all you need is Pickens to actually catch those,
right? Yeah.
He catches a. Couple of those, he catches a
couple, then you're you're toast, right?
Yeah, then he's the best play out of the teams that lost.
I feel like he's a pretty. The Pickens hasn't done anything
lately. I think people are kind of done
with Pickens. Yeah, I think they are.
He's seen as like part of when the Steelers were good and it's
like he's not good anymore. Steelers stink.
And if we talk about it. He doesn't run his routes and.
Shit, I think he's like a a great pick in this contest.
Me too. I think he is.
I think so too. Because the the Steelers are
such a polarized team, right? They either fucking suck or the
moon balls are hitting. And if the moon balls are
hitting, George Pickens is cooking.
That game is closer than expected.
It's playing pretty fast. Like you want to open yourselves
up to some of that streakiness of the Steelers?
Yeah, like. I agree.
Like this is, this is this is. We learned a lesson with fading
Juju that one year. Right.
Like, yeah. What about A.J.
Brown over Saquan Barkley? Is that that's the, that's the
one that I want to play so badly, dude.
That's the one I want so much more.
That's like the chalk pivot, right?
I want, I want Josh Jacobs on those teams, though.
Yeah, Josh Jacobs on those teams exactly.
Yeah, right. A.J.
Brown Jacobs is a way to to. Play.
We did that. Remember that year we did Cam
Akers with the Rams and the Seahawks.
That's how we played that. Cam Akers is an upset pick and I
think we had DK on some of those teams too, but.
That's what was that's what worked last year.
If you did we, we ended up missing because we did some
Aaron Jones. Lamb and Aaron Jones was a a
great play and the Packers surprise upset.
Nobody wanted to play the Packers at all, but you actually
needed to fade Lamb. The the that was last year,
right? Jake Ferguson last year.
Yeah, yeah, that was last year. Because like, because like Lamb
got. Yeah, because Aaron Jones just
went ham. That playoff man.
Like he went like nuts. He went nuts.
That was such a good. That was such a sharp pick.
Play the So you play Jacobs. Same thing.
Packers upset Packers upset Packers.
Running back A.J. Brown.
And A.J. Brown and then AJ Monty Smith
will be the nuts. Yeah, the one with the nuts,
Dallas. Nodder will score. 3.
Times. 6. The the the real fun thing about
that like Eagles decimation of the Packers in Week 1 was that
no one remembers like the five for 1:19 and 1:00 score that
like A.J. Brown had.
Yeah. Looks like we just lost Blair
for a second here. He's probably Justin Tucker.
He's probably he's. Probably trying to go jam some.
I'm Rossing Brown. We have some rage point until we
boost. We have some teams together.
We have some teams together and he was trying to convince me on
Pickens and now I I think I'm on Pickens.
All of a sudden he was trying to convince me on Jason Daniels.
I was trying to convince you on Jacobs too.
Are you on him now? No.
What are the tight ends that we can play and like?
Look at playing this. And the portal.
Tab over to it. These are the names that here
sorted by points per game. Travis Kelsey, CL LaPorte, K dot
and Mark Andrews, TJ Hawkins and Zach Ernst, Dallas Goddard,
Tucker Crab generationally bad. I didn't sleep.
The Andrews The only saving grace for Andrews is the fact
that Like flowers is out, and I think he could probably.
Play with day-to-day. Right?
Like we don't even have that locked.
I actually thought he was out. I thought he was like.
I thought I saw how much Liam's in the chat.
Liam, how much Don Kincaid are you going to play in this
tournament? I'm kind of curious because
that'll that'll I would play Don Kincaid.
I mean, I want to play Don Kincaid I.
Was I too? I'm.
Like. Maybe, man.
I'm I'm good with Kincaid, but like my two highest on tight
ends I think in basketball were like Pitts and Kincaid and I'm
completely bankrupt. Didn't go sometimes on the same
team. I think when you play Lamar
Kincaid definitely is intriguing because he could, yeah, he
becomes. Intriguing.
Right, you can see like Ty Johnson.
Or something. So can someone talk to me about
like on like what are thoughts on Keon Coleman?
Well, Keon Coleman that you could legit get 0.
Yeah. I don't, I don't.
Yeah, I heard Davis say that earlier today on ADP chasing and
it's. You'd play Shakur if.
You're you'd play. Shakur, but I I probably didn't.
Think 1. Percent like no one's.
Shakur's like 4th, right? It's Josh Allen by a landslide,
then James Cook, then a little bit of Dalton Kincaid, and then
even a little. Bit exactly.
Yeah, a little bit of Shakur. Yeah, it's.
I have 1% secure, 0% everything else.
All right, as is tradition at the end of these shows, we like
to to build one on stream. You know, snake style here.
Tossing this one into the $35 contest.
Obviously there's the the big flagship with the $200 entry
point. We got to go to our guests to
start. Let's let's go to the boomer
opto man himself. Hassan, you.
Before we start. I just got AI got a shout out
Razif called it. He goes slight issue for Liam,
Jamie Kincaid is that he's also trying to jam Josh Allen
etcetera, etcetera. Then Liam goes faded.
I faded Allen but not sure I will.
But he's not faded. Perfect.
Which is, I mean, I get it. Allen's a great play.
All right, Hassan, where do you, where do you start us?
Everyone's dad, A.J. Brown.
OK, All right. Coming in hot.
I like it. That's good.
Very good, Blair, you are next and I kind of have a feeling
what you're gonna do. Well, you made it easy for me,
Hassan. We've been talking about it.
I don't actually love this pic, but I think Josh Jacobs makes
sense. Elon, you fucking love Josh.
Jacobs, now that you took Brown, I was really trying to talk you
into Jacobs last night. You know you.
Brought a fathead after we got off so I.
Just want to, I want to be clear, Blair, you come on the
show, there's like literally the entire player pool available
other than A.J. Brown and other Eagles.
And you preface your pick with I don't even like this.
Yeah, that's how you're supposed to build teams, I think, right?
Also you took no you were the latest person to draft a running
back. You're the the biggest 0 RB guy
including Sean. Not only that, but my first
running back pick was Marshawn Lloyd.
You're like fuck this, I'm in on Judge Jacobs now.
OK, I like it. No, it it, it, it went with that
that pairing we were talking about too, of like, how do you
how do you get this to work in a logical way?
Let's go. Should we just go around the
horn? So we did.
Hassan Blair. Yeah.
Let's see. I mean, I, I, I like letting the
the chefs cook. I'll, I'll take a chalk piece.
I'll throw, I'll throw Josh Allen in here.
All right, I'm gonna, I'm gonna. This is gonna be difficult.
We're gonna have to keep in mind what we do 'cause I'm gonna
throw kind of a throw suit. It's also $35.00.
So just like, remember, like it's a bigger field.
Yeah, I'm going to go Pickens. You know Pickens.
OK, All right. Now we're I.
Wrote down my five favorite plays from the show just now,
and we've already played three of them.
I love it man. Hell yeah, us over.
Leveraging all of our favorites in one line in this.
Area just jamming it. I'm going to take Bucky.
Irving Yeah. Nice.
I. Mean it's a little bit chalkier
we have room for it but he's. He's yeah, we have.
He's the player I love. It I would note, because we're
going to be looking for teams to fade and we did.
That's a pretty clear Bucks win play.
I just want. To Yeah.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's a very much a buck win, a
Bucks win play. How do we feel about just going
with, if we really think almond raw like under Gibbs or do you
want to go almond raw? Would you rather go like I'm
going to open this up? Like do we or would we go with
the port? No, Hassan, put your nut sack on
the table and make a pick. Make.
A pick. That's what we're doing.
Fucking let's go, Mark Andrews. That's a good guy.
Heck, that's who I wanted us to get to tight end.
When Pat played Pickens I thought Angels OK to play this.
Man, yeah, you made this. We're.
Pulling every leverage I feel. Like I feel like I got to go
chalk now. Really, it's like.
It's like we. Just did this whole 30.
Diet and it's our first day after and we just like hit the
ice cream bar for. Sure, Pickens Andrews is very
similar to what we're talking about with AJ.
Brown makeup. Yeah, if you're going to play
Pickens as in a loss, probably you want to be a little live to
the Steelers surprising. And Andrews could, even in a
win, could be the tight end that you need, right?
Did you guys have any interest in Rashad Bateman in this
contest? I think, I think we were.
We were. Obviously I'm not going to pick
him. Sorry, that made me so.
No, I was like we took an interest.
Boy, this. Is but it's the same with like
this. Is an aside.
I don't. I think in the 35 like he makes
interest like he's fine. In the 35 is Zay.
Like legit hurt though. I mean, I guess if Zay he's not.
Playing, he says he's day-to-day.
He's probably going to miss the week.
They don't necessarily need a lot out of him.
All right, I yeah, but this line up we can go chalk.
What you guys think will be chalk?
Let's play Gibbs all. Right.
All right, Yeah, Good play. That's.
A good play, good play I. Was on my list of five favorite
plays. Gibbs Yeah.
Gibbs, you like the chalk? I hit every play.
Oh, I'm not almost. Yeah.
Let's see, here it is back to me.
We haven't figured out what we're doing with Texans and
Chargers. I'll play.
I like the LAD stuff. Let's let's put LAD in on this
one. All right.
That's I'm going to I'm going to get us one of those fades that
we need and take Will Reichert sticker.
Interesting, I like that. It makes for a really fun.
It's, well, it does make Pook, but it also makes Kyron more
interesting, right? Right, Kyron, Right.
OK, but the other thing we haven't done yet is the cheese.
I'm going to take Xavier. Worthy.
Yeah, if they're worth that. Yeah, if you want me to.
Do that. That was that was a lock once we
took Mark Andrews, right? I mean that sort of had.
That's an interesting thing to think through.
Not that we have to worry about any kind of chalk on this build,
but like what pivot combos will be the most frequented?
Like if you fade Travis, Kelsey, like what pairing are you doing?
You know most. Likely like.
I'm not saying that's an issue here whatsoever, but just a
thought that came. Into my head and I'm.
Sure, there's a few of those. This is like such a tough one
because like, do you go, do you play?
So like, I'm going to open this up.
Like, do you play Karen? I think you play puka.
Bridge I think you play or you could play puka or.
We've made already like 8. Different or do you play Nico
because we're. The thing about playing Kyron or
Puka is that we know we've locked ourselves into two games
from the Rams and so you actually have a 2 game sample
now. Kyron has becomes a a pretty big
dog to Puka I think. That's become a dog to puka the
the that's when you want puka. You're like, they're winning,
they're successful, like. They have to have to win if they
don't win. And then you play.
You want their high rejected player over multiple games?
Yeah, it's weird because you normally think they're running
back, but like, that's exactly the way I was thinking of A2
Pass like you. Want So do we play Denver or do
we play the Texans? So we're fading Washington.
Oh, I thought. They I thought you both play
Washington. Defense could be.
Watching the defense with Baker, he could throw some some picks.
Oh yeah, yeah, and they're gonna be.
One of the least popular defenses, I think.
Mm hmm. And then you fade Denver and
Texans. That makes sense for.
Washington. That's fine if you're.
If you're not going to play Washington another way, the high
total does equate to a lot of action A lot.
Of action Yeah, turnover. Get a get a turnover somewhere.
They're not a full fade at that point.
I think that makes a lot of sense.
We just jammed every leverage. I love it.
Like we just. It line up still tells the story
though. Yo, it tells a story.
This is a. This.
Is a good I love I love this line up like I've I love.
It it is very fun. All right, so the audio
listeners, this is what we ended up with.
Josh Allen, Josh Jacobs, Bucky Irving, A.J.
Brown, George Pickens, Jameer Gibbs, Pukunukua Lad Mcconkey,
Xavier Worthy, Mark Andrews, Will Reichert and Washington
Defense. This will be extremely unique if
you dare dupe us. Well, don't do it.
Come up. Come up with your own ideas.
Come up. Yeah.
Cash game break it up a. Little more.
Cash game break is over. Man, dude, this was a blast.
I know all of us get so giddy for this week and this is always
the best way to kick it off. I know Blair and his son.
You guys just did a podcast on the road of his network.
Is that a place they can go? Check out more FFPC playoff
content? Definitely.
We have that podcast. I'm think Sean and Colin are
going to be doing some content. Maybe Ben has something planned
on those radio waves as well. And we'll have some written
content for this contest coming out over the week.
So definitely stay tuned for that.
Awesome. Hassan, are you going to be
making the media tour? I know everyone wants to have
the boomer opto guy on their shows these days.
It's like a whole group effort, guys.
The the, the boomer opto couldn't exist, you know, if it
weren't for all of us destroying, destroying our brain
cells. I look.
I listen, I only got to listen to the first part of the
podcast, and it was like 10 minutes in and Hassan made a
comment about, like, getting inside or what the boomer opto
meant. And Hassan was like, well, it
means generally racism. And that Blair was like, I don't
think I was going there. And they just quickly changed
the subject. Yeah, that that sounds about
right. Gretch, you going to be kicking
off some stuff with Sean? We are, yeah.
We did a a fun show today or a couple shows about coaching,
carousel and MVP discussion, who we think should win the MVPA.
Bunch of fun stuff, but we are going to do some FFPC stuff
later in the week over at Celine Dion's.
And then I got a request to write something.
I might write something that's stealing signals about it just
like a probably just like a primer, like you know, low level
stuff. But I might.
I don't know. I'm not promising that to
anyone. I always do the thing.
I I feel like it's the perfect, you know, when they say that the
poker, it takes, you know, 5 minutes to learn how to play and
then like a lifetime to master. It's like understanding how to
submit a team on this is so easy.
And then when you start going down these rabbit holes of like
logic trees and brackets and telling a story and ownership,
it just like starts to wreck your brain in a very fun way.
Yeah, Pat, tomorrow we're going to have our second show of the
week, same start time, 8:15 and it sounds like you will have
your full ownership projections ready.
I will yeah, they're they're close now.
Legit. This this show is always a big
part of my process where I try to dial in, you know, the
sentiment on all these guys. I'm basically like I said, I
think the big thing will be figuring out which teams not to
fade and there's going to be someone like uncomfortable
clicks this year and then probably leading to some
mistakes. I loved your call of the soft
fade bowl where people over fade both sides of the the charters,
Texans. I can definitely see that coming
to fruition because people aren't going to want to fade
both sides of the Vikings Rams, I don't think.
And that the the commander's pucks is also pretty fun too.
And. You just cannot fade that total.
And Packers. Eagles.
I think some Packers. Will want to do Packers because
I mean. We just, we just did.
It's fun, you know, It's like. Yeah, especially if Hertz
doesn't play right. Like that's like everything
gets. Like Hertz doesn't play
literally this. It's over.
It's like it's completely. Depressed.
Yeah. Like it's yeah.
Eagles have to reduce. A lot.
Just he. Just has a concussion, correct?
Yeah. And it's already been a full
week. I mean, he's kind of.
More than a week. He yeah.
It's been some of those is weird, yeah.
Yeah, it's been like 10 plus days.
I think he gets cleared. I I would, I would be stunned.
At least he did not play. A concussed Hurst is probably
better than like a healthy picket, right?
Tanner McKee is probably who. A concussed concussed Tanner
McKee versus a healthy Can you pick it?
Yeah. So right now I have I.
Have Gibbs. So we talked about the Gibbs.
I'm in our discussion right now. I have Gibbs and Barkley, Tide
as the two chalkiest players. Oh.
Is it because like Derrick Henry's catching a lot of like
reduction from Lamar? Yeah, it's because Lamar and
Andrews are going to steal from Henry.
Yeah, Yep. That's gonna be a fun show.
That's also the show where as you release them all, me and
Pete just tell you you're wrong the whole night.
It's fun. Yeah, Actually, it's annoying
because I'm like, God, yeah, you're right.
OK, hang on. It's like big pages the whole
time. Very.
Helpful. Well, that's the it's it's the
easiest thing in the world to spot one wrong thing, right?
It is the hardest thing in the world to adjust for the trickle
down effect across the entire contest.
And team on. On what?
Changes. We don't name the 80% of things
that Pat's like dead on. And it's the other thing I
thought you're gonna say there. It's the hardest thing to come
up with, all of it. But it's easy to be the people
that get to see your finished product and be like, well, now
this one's wrong. That's why it's iterative.
It's an iterative process. I will.
I might tweet out last year's actual versus.
So I had an R-squared of 92 1/2 percent last year on the actual
versus. The.
The ownership so if you want to get these little plug join the
the ship chasing discord maybe give the people the
instructions. I forget the yeah you click the
thing. What do you?
Do yeah you if you join the become a YouTube member and then
you go the deposit key to discord.
There's an FAQ on how to sync your account and then that will
unlock the ship chasing Discord and Pat will drop that link in
there normally right as we go live, right, So people can kind
of play. Along yeah, I'll throw it in
there when we go live yeah, yeah, so.
So that will be very fun. Very much looking forward to
that. Like I said, that'll be 8:15.
And then the rest of our schedule, we're going to take
Wednesday off. Thursday, we're going to be back
with Draco. No sacrilegious this year.
He's off in Hawaii. But Pat, did you book our other
guests? Not yet.
I'll reach out. Hopefully we'll have.
We're going to get we're going to hopefully get someone else on
there and then Friday that we need to let these guys know.
But I assume they know the deal by now.
We'll have Dink and Leone for the finale.
They're leading up to it. So yeah, excited to kick off
Playoff Challenge week. Thank you guys for tuning in
tonight. Appreciate all the comments in
the chat. And we will see you guys
tomorrow. So for Hassan, for Blair, for
Gretsch, for Pat, I'm Pete. We'll see you guys then.