It's week 5 and despite A1 day delay, the stat chasing boys are
back to take you through how all of the injury shakeups are going
to impact your fantasy teams and how we can best take advantage
of the new situations emerging in the fantasy landscape.
This is stat chasing Pat Fryer Helmos.
This is why. This is why I'm hot.
Anita, hand job, fix your side, Jamar and also play Chase.
You can't handle the heat. It looks like we're finally at
this point here, right? Hello.
Thank you for joining us tonight.
Drico, Glad to be here with you. Despite our one day delay, we're
back in the saddle here to take you through all the charts for
the week. A lot of injuries this week,
feels like. I'm sure that we do this every
season. Oh my gosh, there's so many
injuries this season. But man, with Richardson and a
Chan and all all these exciting players getting injured, it it
felt particularly brutal this week.
I don't know how you felt about a trick up.
And devastated I I I've been really happy with my start of
the season and then and and and that's in large part.
High exposure to a Chan. High exposure to to Justin
Jefferson and one of my better teams has Anthony Richardson.
So definitely, yeah, definitely been a blow.
And my my my coke take is that hopefully some of these guys
come back before the end of the year and maybe those teams that
were really good they're just good enough to get them true and
and maybe I can get some unique Justin Jefferson teams.
I was I was saying the same thing and I I was trying to make
sure that it wasn't Cope. I was looking.
We just finished putting up the the BBM 4 leaderboard with all
the player combos and like you can see how people were drafting
over at Spike week. And I was looking, I'm like one
of the the people in the entire tournament with the largest
amount of a Chan. And so I really was trying to
make sure that this was not a cope take.
But I'm pretty sure that given his price, where he went all
summer, he's already done enough to like you you would be happy
with a player that delivered, you know Spike with, yeah, that
magnitude over the course of a season.
Like it's not a smash if he never plays another game the
rest of the season, it's not a smash.
But it's like that was enough. You know I got I got enough.
And so my my hope and my my cope is I think that there's a pretty
good chance he comes back healthy later in the season.
And what we're doing is we're culling some of the weaker A
Chan teams and I tend to think that my teams in general are are
drafted stronger than the field on average.
And so I'll hopefully be able to get a disproportionate amount of
A Chan into the playoffs especially since I have so much
of them. So that's that's kind of my and
I I think you can kind of extend that to a lot of these guys that
like obviously Justin Jefferson you know his draft cost was
significantly higher but he's already done a lot for you.
You know like sure Chase had that 50 point game, but Chase
put up a couple stinkers while Jefferson was doing Jefferson
things and you know cut miss the the four games.
So I I kind of think that these Jefferson teams, these are Chan
teams, they might end up being OK.
The ones that I'm pretty concerned about are the two
quarterback Richardson teams, just because it does sound like
that injury is going to be pretty serious.
But if you happen to have your other quarterback, like if you
got like a A2 of Richardson or like a Herbert Richardson,
something where you've got a really strong other quarterback
at cost, I think those could be really interesting come playoff
time. Obviously it stinks for regular
season prizes or like drafters style format.
We're just trying to accumulate the most points, like like in a
drafters tournament. If you have Justin Jefferson,
your team's dead, which is it's so crazy, The differences in the
format, like you have a chant. It was like one of the best
picks you could have made. Team's dead.
Have fun buddy. See you next.
Season, right, right. So let's say, I think we should
get into the quarterback chart here.
So gonna add that worked out pretty good.
And so like always. We this is a quarterback
efficiency chart and on the horizontal axis we've got
adjusted yards per tent which is it's kind of like yards per tent
rewards touchdowns and punish the interceptions.
And then we have touchdown rate which is I guess pretty
important for your pocket passers, they need to be thrown
touchdown, pretty good clip. But then also it kind of can
kind of also be like a volatility measure.
Where if somebody's throwing for good yardage but not getting the
touchdowns, then that can possibly signal they could be in
line for positive regression on that metric.
And then the size of the bubble, because this is fantasy
football, central centric and the size of the bubble is for
rushing yardage. Yeah, I when I was putting this
chart together this week, a lot of the guys you know held their
trend is same, same that I expected.
A couple guys did enough for me where I was like, OK, I need to
reevaluate how I'm assessing this player.
The the first one for me was Brock Purdy.
The way that I had viewed him prior to this week and you know,
it certainly helped that I was paying a lot of attention to
that game as I watched my Cowboys get absolutely
curbsumbed. But I I think that what we're
seeing with Purdy and it it makes sense, it translates with
how the offenses compare and the similar systems is he's just
like diet beta Tua, right? Like he he's not gonna do quite
as much as Tua, but they're like they're being asked to do
similar stuff. They've got these incredible
weapons that can deliver huge splash plays and help sustain
these high touchdown rates that you need from these pocket
passers. Neither of them are doing
anything on the ground. And so I'm starting to look at
party kind of as Diet Tua and wish that I had come around to
that during the offseason because I would have drafted a
lot more of them. And given his costs and where he
went, he definitely looks like he was a strong pick.
So I'm going to have to hold the L on my underweight party
position there. But that was one where I just, I
felt like I needed to check my priors and make sure they're
still being rational. They're pretty sure it's you
know we're seeing signal not just noise here like it's he's
just. Yeah, Week 5.
We've got a 5 game sample in here and seems like he's good.
Yeah, yeah. One I I guess one thing that
that that I'm gonna check it now that I guess people would say
that is in favor of sure that is not for and what's his name
Purdy. It's kind of the pass rate, so
just checking the the situation neutral pass rate from Miami has
been 62% and then for San Francisco it's been 53%.
So I guess that that that's one difference where you would you
would I think given a choice you definitely and and you said this
you definitely prefer Chua. And because you know they're
gonna pass more often and but like we said, he purdy's playing
pretty efficiently. He's scoring touchdowns.
He's getting yardage, strong yardage for attempt and so
definitely his prior cost, you were very interested.
Yeah. And and we mentioned this
earlier I can't remember what week it was that we discussed
this but Purdy's volume is is just going to be low.
You know that's that's the way the offense is designed.
They're not going to have him air it out you know 40 plus
times in a week if they can all avoid it and they're they're a
good team they're going to be able to avoid having to do that.
So you're that's his ceilings kind of capped in that regard.
It's not to say that ceiling games are inaccessible to him.
Clearly they are on the back of touchdown efficiency.
It's it's kind of like, well, yeah, I mean diet.
There's no need to make other comparisons.
Diet too is a totally fine and apt comparison.
There for sure. The other the other ones that we
saw, the Jordan love. I'm wondering if we get like a
little bit of a Jordan Love metronome effect because there's
no way I mean he was so efficient the first couple weeks
right. We all we saw that and said he's
gonna regress but now he's just like screaming back the other
way. And I I've got to feel like
maybe he comes back and settles somewhere in between where where
he is right now on the chart and where he was to start the
season. I'm thinking that, you know,
maybe with Christian Watson getting to be fully healthy and
acclimated to the offense and you know, you get Aaron Jones
back, maybe the office will look a little more efficient.
But yeah, I'm wondering if we see a Jordan Love metronome
effect there. Was there anyone else on the
chart that you saw that you had a a big take away on for this
week? And just that I I guess do want
to be able to use and the the resurrection Adp's while we have
them and because I believe the contest is is closing soon and
so rock pretty goes around pick 80 and obviously huge closing
line value there and but I, I, I'm I'm now thinking let's say
for example Joe Burrow. Actually is a good example where
he's he's now picked 72 and we see him right here around at the
five at Justin Jarrett for attempt and low pretty low
touchdown rate that that. I think that's a comparison that
that's pretty interesting where you have like 1 who's been
really efficient and then another who I think it's pretty
objectively more talented overall.
Joe Burrow has been. Bad and and and mostly because
of the injury probably. I think that's like an
interesting like if I'm like trying to find ways how do I
play quarterback in in resurrection and how do I react
to the market and arrest. I think I at the same price even
rest of the season I prefer Joe Burrow.
Yeah 100% agree and it's it's because the ceiling with Burrow
is not capped in the way that it's capped with Purdy right.
Like your your very very very best Purdy game is 6 touchdowns
right. It's like 300 yards 6 touchdowns
that that'd be like you're you're living in a dream Holy
shit brought Purdy yeah just went nuclear right and and while
like sure that's a that's a pretty enormous ceiling like Joe
Burrow has those like I just threw for 500 yards LOL games in
his in Israel like in the same way that a six touchdown game
for Purdy is really unlikely but it's in the range like that 500
yard game for borough is in the range and so it's just you're
not capping your ceiling quite as much with borough.
I think that is definitely the way I would want to play it as
well. Not to say that the market is
doing a bad job of pricing Purdy is I kind of like let that ADP
marinate in my head a little bit.
It's like yeah that's probably, that's probably right.
You know here's a here's an interesting 1.
Brock Purdy or Trevor Lawrence rest of season.
And I I haven't looked at the Resurrection Adps.
I've kind of sat that tournament out after my first few drafts.
It just wasn't terribly appealing to me, given the
prize. Pool right?
Makes sense. Makes sense.
I I just, I I like to use it as a as a what you call it as a
OHH. I think it's such a good metric.
It's such a good tumor to compare.
Yeah. Market sentiment on players,
right? But yeah, you wanna be, you
wanna be. I guess transparent.
I've done a couple myself but have not been diving in super
hard but like to use it as a tool and rock Purdy or Trevor
Lawrence and I mean given the last couple weeks I think.
I'm slightly in favor of maybe this is this is a bit contrary.
I'm slightly in favor of Trevor Lawrence and I just think again
you're talking about somebody who's much, much better like
overall more talented the the, the talent around pretty is
clearly Miles better than Trevor Lawrence like you.
Probably got pretty average, talented possibly possibly below
talent average home around them. Trevor Lawrence and he's been
making, I think a lot of his like sort of like advanced sort
of charted stats have been really, really good.
But the fantasy output has not been there, and so I almost want
to say that's another one where despite a pretty poor start.
I I do want I do want to be in on like a Trevor Lawrence
rebounds and so I I'm probably slightly prefer like in a
complete vacuum and but the market is actually has pretty
ahead of them so Trevor Lawrence has picked 85 now and so that's
another one where I'm like oh you know like I I I like being
contrarian there but if someone was to make me be like super
super confident and and like I have to spend like.
And to draft Trevor Lawrence like around the half the two
rounds before Purdy, I I'm like definitely getting very angsty
not not liking that. So I I I I'm not trying to say
that the the yeah the ADP on Purdy is is inefficient.
There, for example, he goes around Kirk Cousins, which, you
know, that seems fair. Yeah.
No, yeah, that's that. That feels about right to me.
It's kind of just the way that I would be playing that most
likely is like that's that's kind of a range of quarterbacks
where I think if anything like Cousins and Lawrence might be a
tiny tiny bit underpriced with the way that the quarterback,
just with the way the quarterback market has behaved
this season where every everyone's kind of going a
little bit too expensive. But in in right direction drafts
where we have, there's so much less ambiguity.
So, like, you just get these much more like, crystallized
tiers of, like, here's useful players.
And after that it's just, you know, 50 miles of shit.
Like, yeah, so then I'm like, well, at that range in the
draft, it's probably fine to take these quarterbacks, even
though, like, technically, I feel like the price might be a
little high relative to, like, what a perfectly efficient
market would be for where quarterbacks go with respect to
all the skill position players. But like, yeah, I I would.
I'd be happy to open up stacks for all those guys in that range
and just take whoever falls to me and and kind of play it that
way. But I think, honestly, there
weren't a ton of of crazy things on the quarterback chart that I
saw other than those ones that I I wanted to point out, I guess.
The other one that's interesting to me is that is seeing Russell
Wilson and like pretty firmly in the good section of the chart
and I know you I I I pointed out whereas this is this is a
Russell Wilson. Positivism, positivism or biased
chart where it doesn't it doesn't really punish him for
taking sacks from holding the ball too long and and like being
able to hold the ball longer is going to push up your adjusted
yards for attempt. But it does seem, it does seem
pretty interesting to me that he's been clearly pretty
productive and they haven't been winning.
So I'm sure there is frustration in that team and but.
It's sort of like this. Like if I told you that this was
a 2015 chart and showed you where Russell Wilson was, you'd
be like, oh, OK, yeah, no, that, that makes sense.
And then I'd probably ask you, who is to a Tagoviloa, right we
are in 2015. But yeah, no, I I think with
Wilson, he's definitely, he's just gonna be one of those guys
that's interesting for fantasy. He's a little hard for DFS
because the stacking options are really not ideal with the way
that no they're using their weapons to offense.
Although I I believe I saw did was it Brandon Powell that got
cut there one some random or was it Lil Jordan some random dust
ball that they okay hang out got cut.
So I'm Brandon and it was Brandon Johnson I believe.
Yeah that that sounds right. Yeah.
Some household name you know so right I I think that it might be
Ohh Humphrey. Lil Jordan, Humphrey was who it
was. So I think that might be signal
that maybe we're going to start to see a little bit more Mims.
Dulcich also looks like he's coming off IR.
You actually provided some really good Dulcich related
alpha in the offseason, Visavis the Troutman insider information
as well. So I'm, I guess we can save that
for the tight end chart. But I'm kind of curious to see
how this offense starts to shape up and if we actually get some
potential usable stacking options with Russell Wilson or
if it's just like, yeah, he occasionally produces for
fantasy, but it's really hard to pick the right weapon and and
sometimes there just isn't a right weapon.
A lot of it, just that offense flows through the backs.
So it's a it's an interesting one for sure.
Yeah, I I agree. I agree for sure.
So I think that's probably a good jumping off point to finish
up with the quarterbacks and I'm going to zoom us out here so we
can see all the running backs. So here, this is our first
running back chart and honestly, it's my favorite chart that we
do. This is.
It it basically breaks down each of the plays that a running back
is on the field for as a percentage of their teams
overall. And so you have rush attempts
and sort of like a lot of running backs, bread and butter,
you have their, their roots and you have pass blocking and and
pass blocking. It's not fantasy helpful, but it
is good to know who's trusted to pass block and then run blocking
which is like. Yeah, you're you're you're on
the field, but you're not at you're not.
There's no chance that you're This does not translate to
anything fantasy wise, but good. Good to see.
Yeah, one Ohh, go ahead, go ahead.
I I was gonna say one note for for this chart and for the tight
end charts coming up for these. We do like a rolling four weeks
of data just because the usage it's it's important to be able
to see how the trends evolve over the season where for like
quarterbacks and wide receivers we really want to get those
larger samples to kind of like get rid of some of the noise and
the small sample stuff. But for the running backs and
tight ends we do want to be current and staying on top of
emerging trends And so that's for example why you see you know
sake 1 Barkley all the way at the top of the chart now well
we're missing we took at week one yeah we're missing week one
and then sake one also missed some weeks with injuries.
So we've got a really small sample, so we're just looking at
a super small sample for sake one.
But for everyone else who's been playing games, we're getting a
more recent view on their usage trends, so I think that's a
useful feature of this chart. Yeah, yeah.
And that that's a good call out and great explanation.
So I mean it just strikes me answered away, the top of this
chart is just not what we expected at the start of the
year like OK, you have say Quan then Kyron Williams.
We've talked about that Rashad White, Joe Mixon, Zach Moss, and
that's just like a really surprising yeah, what is it?
Top four, top five, yeah, there's a there's a lot of lot
of guys up at the top of the chart where we definitely were
not drafting them that way during the offseason.
One of the ones to me that I I think that was really
interesting to me is we finally we saw Josh Jacobs get there a
little bit this week. Finally he found his way into
the end zone. He got a lot of targets in that
game and so his usage translated a little bit more into fantasy
points. He had not, you know, he'd had
this elite usage and we'll see it when we get to the next
running back charts that they're expected fantasy points.
He'd always showed, you know, really good, expected fantasy
points, but was being really inefficient and not actually
converting on them. This week we saw him be able to
get there a little bit. It'll improve his expected
fantasy points efficiency. Just getting the touchdowns
definitely helps there. But we saw Josh Jacobs, you
know, show why. Hey, you paid at you know,
elevated cost for Jacobs cuz there's so much work there that
in general you've just got such a high floor for most weeks.
The other guy that's right in. That yeah he's got like 21
expected points for game like yeah he's he's literally got the
double double profile where 10 expected Russian points and 11
expected receiving points. So pretty pretty like not doing,
not doing Jack with it a lot of weeks, but like very like really
like really strong role, really strong role.
I was paying particularly close attention to Josh Jacobs in the
really the second-half and fourth quarter of that game.
Cuz on that Showdown slate, I had a very live lineup and I
needed Josh Jacobs and Musgrave to get me there.
And so I see Jacobs racking up all of these just little dink
and dunk PPR points. Like.
All right, two yards, that's whatever, That's 1.2 maybe let's
keep it going. And he just gets all these
little worthless targets like. But hey, they're worthwhile for
fantasy. So good.
Good for Jacobs. Yeah, for sure.
For sure, but the other guy then at trap?
Ohh, you go ahead. You go ahead.
Ohh, we were we were gonna talk about the same guy.
I was gonna bring up ETN as well.
Ohh how did I didn't even say ETN we we just had a meeting of
minds yes I I mean great minds think alike so but no he ETN
looks elite he he looks like you know at the start of I I wanna
say at the very very start of draft season ETN was in like I
wanna say he was in the third round like kinda is that am I
remembering this right He was kind of like in the the late 20s
ADP wise. And then someone, someone came
out and and put out a smear campaign on ETN and he fell
precipitously, you know into the fourth round and man the price.
The market was right, right away And I dude, it's it's this
stupid name effect. Tank Bigsby.
Like, sure Tank Dell has has been productive, but like if you
get a guy with A6 sounding name Sky Moore, Tank Bigsby, like the
right is just going to attribute the cool name price boost on it.
And by you know by effect that dragged ETN down a little bit
because everyone was so sure Tank Bigsby was gonna be legit.
And yeah, Tank Bigsby has been annoying.
It tanks. He's more so just been a thorn
in ETN side. He's what's preventing ETN from
being like the RB one. If ETN got more of those Green
Zone touches that Bigsby has siphoned off and he ran good and
converted them like you could, there's a there's an outcome
where ETN has five more touchdowns this season And we're
talking about you know is who do you, who do you like rest of
season Travis Etn or Christian McCaffrey.
You know like that's right. Could have happened.
So I I definitely think Etn's really exciting going forward
just like you were saying about Trevor Lawrence.
Like if we if we just think about like the best outcomes for
this offense it's really exciting for for really all of
these pieces. I just, I just think this is an
offense that you wanna have pieces of.
So very, very excited about ETN going forward.
Yeah yeah I agree. Agree.
You said pretty much everything that I was going to say and took
it right at right right out of my mouth.
And and then interesting as well that Bijan is like right up here
where if you look at the rolling four games he he he's in the bow
cow part of the chart and I know week one toddler Algier and he
had a he had a pretty good share.
But you take that out and it looks like it's been all bijon.
Yeah, I know we had the carry thing last week where they sort
of split the 5050, but I do prefer to look at the Rolling 4,
so you don't hone in on single games too much.
Yeah, absolutely. And Bijon, I mean, it's gonna
sound weird to say that he's a buy low candidate because it
feels like every week, even if he has like slightly less
fantasy production than you'd want, like he's still putting
out some flashy play those. Is it?
Is it the official Falcons Twitter account that keeps
showing these really cool camera angles of Bijon?
Just yeah, looking like a baller man.
Oh my gosh, this guy's so fun to watch.
But like the little catches the ball behind the back kind of
crossover into the end zone he's he's nice he's really fun to
watch man. But I would I mean if you can if
you're if you're dealing with someone who is not watching the
games. I would be interested in buying
low on Bijon. Just cuz I think that with how
talented he is and like this team wants to establish it.
They wanna do things through the running backs too in the passing
game and just think he's so talented that he's going to
force Arthur Smith to give him more work.
And I mean he's already he's already getting it.
But I just, I think that if you start getting some good
efficiency games from Bijan and you know they they're playing
from ahead and they just get to establish it like they want to,
you could have some crazy ceiling games from that guy.
So it's, I mean you can't even really buy him low.
He's been fined. I guess it's a buy medium, you
know. Right.
Yeah. Yeah.
Well, one of the things that people talk about buy low.
But there's also the concept of buying high, where you have an
ascending player, and then if you're buying at a price where
he's had a he's had a good game and you're buying off of that
good game. People actually, they adjust,
sometimes, adjust too slowly. So like just for example Bijon
his his rest his resurrection draft at ADP is pick seven which
is like not that different to his his preseason and then you
compare that to the CMC who's just clearing away the 101 and
like you're you're sort of buying high on Bijon but if the
trend or or like if if he like. Achieves the type of season that
he could he could like just totally like deliver one-on-one
value just like so easily. So I I I think I think it it it
sort of is like a buy high but it's a it's a good it's a very
good buy high yeah 100%. And I I was just having this
conversation with someone that there's a lot of fantasy players
out there and this is more with we're talking about season long
and trading dynasty. I guess sometimes people are
scared to pay that premium price that the truly elite fantasy
assets deserve. And so you just need to be
willing. I mean, and and so much of
fantasy football comes down to, hey, there's like 5 dudes.
There's like literally 5 total guys who are the true, true
difference makers in this game. And you just need to be willing
to pay up for guys like that. And if your opponents are not
willing to break the bank for it and you can outfit them in a
trade or, you know, if you're in auction format, you just you're
just willing to. Hey, my, my auction rankings say
that this guy's only worth $62.00.
Oh gosh, I do. I want to go 6.
Dude, it doesn't matter. Just go to go to 70.
You know? Like what?
What were you really gonna do with that last $7.00?
Like, just get a couple $1.00 Flyers.
The the difference between your $7.00 player and your $1.00
player, it's like nothing compared to the the difference
in actually getting a Bijan Robinson versus settling for you
know the the running back. That's just a sake 1 Barkley,
right? Like, ah, I won't, I won't take
Bijan. I'll settle for sake one.
He'll only be $45.00. Like, well, congratulations, I
really hope that you're enjoying 6th place this season.
You know, like, right, You need the elite guys to win and so
it's just being willing to. When you've identified a guy
like that, just go with it. Like you pay.
Pay all the way up, man. Is I think is Breeze Hall who's
down here at the bottom and just 40% of his if you well, I guess
you know I'm just, I'm just looking at Week 5.
So, Breeze Hall, we have them here at 40%.
Kind of useful Snap. If you use rush attempts and
roots, whereas I guess week 5 even though he had the really
strong expected points game, so 18 1/2 expected points, it was
only on the field for half the snaps and they used them to
block 0 and pass blocks and run blocks so.
Pretty it's It kind of seems like every time Pre Tall is on
the field, he's getting the ball almost 100%.
That, that that one is interesting for me where I
thought the trend was gonna be for him to like really rise but
it sounds like it almost like he could he could live down in in
in in the lower part of the chart just from.
Such a high like concentration of usage when he's on the field.
But definitely as as we approach playoff on would 100% expect him
to be to be in the top half of this chart.
Yeah, I think that's a really good assessment.
What I would say is Michael Carter is like, no no disrespect
to Michael Carter the man or his family that he's like the
jaggiest Jag of all Jags. Like you know he's a cardboard
cut out, you know, and just whoever could be doing the job
that Michael Carter is doing except for Dalvin Cook.
Dalvin Cook is too washed to do that job.
So I think that breeze has a ton of runway to take more of those
snaps. But it's really hard.
Like dude, the guy had 25 carries.
Like it's really hard to to want to.
I mean you're running back who's fresh off an ACL injury.
Like do you really want to put more than 25 carries a game on
it? I mean it was abundantly clear
and I feel like Robert solid, definitely a sharp enough coach
to where he's like, dude, if we're going to win this game,
it's on the back of Breese and we need to put the ball in his
belly and let him do his thing. And there's there's a reason why
when they came out you know of the of halftime, the the thing
that they decided to do was let's let Brees try and break
this game open for us. And he did, you know, like
that's that's their #1A plus play is give the ball to Brees
Hall. So what we did see in the usage
was that Michael Carter did get a lot of the passing work.
I fully expect Brees Hall to be able to when whatever amount of
that, the coaches decide that he's able to handle.
And I think that like you said, the later that we get in the
season, the more likely he's going to be able to take some of
that. I think a big part of why the
snap sure was where it was was he's breaking long runs and and
they were feeding him a lot. It wasn't like, oh he's on the
field, right? And like not getting carries.
Like dude, take the guy off. He just, you ran the ball five
times on the same drive with him like he's taking a pounding,
like give him get the guy some water, you know, but right.
So I I think he's got room to rise a little bit.
I would anticipate his usage staying on the bottom half of
this chart for a while, but you don't really need.
He's one of those elite efficiency backs, you know,
absolute stud in my opinion. So when you, that's running
back. And and we don't want to like I
guess I guess debate like where a player will be on the chart
how I I guess my question is how long more do you think, how long
more do you think before he's getting more targets or do you
do you think that's kind of like a like it could sound like that
until like week 15 or something like that.
It's a good question and I I do think that a big part of it
comes down to how confident the coaching staff feels the value
of those targets that actually is.
And what I mean by that is they don't really care about the
passing game as much right now as the run game because they're
like passing him shit anyway, dog.
Like we don't. We don't, We don't get you
running routes out here like they're not worth anything.
Zach ain't gonna hit you. And so they're like, we're fine
having Michael Carter run out here.
And just like occasionally it'll be an errant ball and
occasionally he'll catch it and whatever happens happens.
Like sometimes we got to throw to the backs.
So I think that if we do see a quarterback change happen in New
York, you would. I I feel pretty strongly that
that would be a a spot where you would almost immediately see a
change in usage where it would be.
It wouldn't be this gradual thing that we're talking about
happening over the course of the season.
Let's just say I don't, I don't think there's a ton of substance
these Kirk Cousins to The Jets rumors, but just let's live in
fantasyland here for a second. Let's say Kirk Cousins goes to
The Jets at the trade deadline, right?
I think that let's just say Briefs has been getting that 55
percent, 60% snap share. I think you immediately see the
snapshot jump up into like the 7075% range.
And those additional snaps he's getting are almost exclusively
usage in the passing game for him if they get a competent
quarterback. So that's.
I think it's predicated mostly on the fact that they don't
think their passing game is worth very much right now.
And so there's no, there's no need to deploy their very best
player who they're they're trying to be conscientious of
how much volume they, you know, how much work they put on him,
where they're saying whatever someone else can, right take
this low value stuff, we're saving you for the stuff that's
important. So.
Yeah, makes sense. I think I'd, I'd like to see
maybe get him some screens or something like that.
But yeah, it makes sense and definitely don't want them.
They're pass blocking when. Michael Carter seems to do it
fine. I don't see a lot of players
here where we haven't really touched on them.
No. I mean just like trends
continuing would be like DeAndre Swift is gonna, he's Kenny
Gainwell is what Kenny Gainwell is.
And like we saw it play out last season.
We for whatever reason didn't learn the lesson.
Let let some people talk us into the fact that Kenny Gainwell was
the Eagles back to draft because he's going so late.
It's like, yeah, if you want a satellite back plus then you can
take him or you can take Chuba Hubbard.
Chuba Hubbard and Kenny Gainwell are the same shit.
You know, like one of them's in a better offense, but one of
them has a way better chance of beating out the back ahead of
him for significant work. So it's like yeah, whatever.
But Swift is just gonna, he's going to take as much of that
share as he's able to carry. They're they're going to want to
give him more because he's doing well with it.
The the thing that's going to be interesting to watch is if
there's ever any, you know, injury or Swiftnesses any time
and definitely hope that does not happen because he's he's a
super fun running back to watch. It'd be interesting to see.
Do they just go to gain well and he gets a ton of work.
Is it Boston Scott, like, does maybe.
Maybe what we saw earlier from Rashad Penny where he looked so
bad, maybe he like wasn't fully healthy or something, I I don't
know. But it'd be interesting to see
what would happen in a Swift list backfield.
But I I think that trend will continue.
One of the other ones. That it's so untenable for for
Jane. Well, to keep playing this bad
and and still be so trusted. Yeah, one of the other ones that
I think might continue is remodre Stevenson is working his
way down the chart and I kind of think that might continue as
well. The Patriots offense has been
really bad lately and and Stevenson has been worse than he
was last season as well. So I'm just wondering if
they're. I don't know what's going on in
New England man. It looks looks pretty dire.
So I think you could easily see Zeke just take these.
I mean the the touches are almost entirely worthless anyway
so it's it doesn't really matter.
It's probably not worth spending a ton of energy discussing.
But yeah, I think for Mandre is gonna gonna wind up heading down
the chart a little bit. Yeah and yeah, definitely feels
and feels like like it's gone from like maybe 60 plus to.
So probably, I mean, right, last week he was around 50 and
that's, I mean that's probably a floor, but it's like you said
when he's playing this pearly it, it doesn't really matter,
yeah. And so yeah with that I guess we
can point out that Map Reader in in the last couple of games
let's say since week 3 map reader has had 71% of the of the
team snaps and yeah since in the last three weeks.
So he he would be higher and and he's definitely the the bell cow
in in the for the giants when when sequin is down but that's
translated to just nine expected points.
So it's like 70% of snaps, 9 expected points and it that that
does feel pretty telling for how how bad and poor the the Giants
offense has been for fantasy, especially the especially the
backs. But all, all round.
And that does make me think it definitely makes me pretty shy
about taking stabs on that offense.
Yeah, it's it's an entirely dysfunctional offense.
And I go back to what Ben Gretch has has been saying kind of this
whole like in the offseason and and first couple weeks of
stealing signals. Like there's going to be
offenses that are functional that, and not just functional
but so good that the haves and the have nots that crush where
you you just want any, any bit of that offense you can get your
hands on. You want it.
There's gonna be offenses where you want absolutely nothing to
do with them. And the Giants are one of them,
right? Totally agree.
And so yeah, let's let's move
on. And so this is same chart.
But here we've got a we've got basically the backups.
Anybody stand out to you here? The Amari de Mercado stuff I
know waivers have already passed for for most people.
I know we, you know, you got like FFPC waivers tonight, but
for Amari de Mercado? The thing that I am interested
in he's gotten a ton of steam as always, the passing down guy and
now that Connor's gonna be out he's the back to own.
I I always hate when I'm against the market on stuff like this
and to be perfect, like for full transparency, I I empty the clip
on fab on him and my my home league.
I told told people to do the same, but I I kind of think that
it's Kiante Ingram and it's it's.
It feels like too little of a signal to go off of, but the
Cardinals released their depth chart and had Kiante Ingram
listed as the RB1. He had missed time with a neck
injury the last couple weeks, but he's he's like at least kind
of interesting and like could be kind of good he he wasn't good
last season, you know, But I don't think Amari de Mercado is
very good. He wasn't an exciting prospect
or anything. So I'm.
I'm worried that the Amari de Mercado waiver pickup might be
fool's gold. And you know, I'm, I'm going to
end up starting him in a dynasty league this week.
But I think that it might end up being you start de Mercado, the
week plays out and it's like he got, you know, 3 targets for 12
yards and four carries for 15 yards.
And it was Kiante Ingram that got.
The James Connor workload, so I'm just a little hesitant
there. I mean, if if you've got a
choice between de Mercado or Kiante Ingram, the market would
definitely tell you it's de Mercado right now.
But I'm just interested. I'm leaving a light on for
Kiante Ingram. I think it's more ambiguous than
the market is representing currently.
So that was one on this chart that I wanted to talk about.
The other one is Spears. Spears is looking so it does
seem I I guess just on the Mercardo it does seem like he's
definitely the the passing down back like even when even when
Connor is like around and he he it seems like he's the one who's
been getting the roots. That's, that's correct.
But it's also been without Kiante Ingram around.
And so I'm wondering so yes, they do seem to like to Mercado
over Connor in some passing situations, but is that
necessarily the K like do they feel the same way with him
relative to Kiante Ingram and and I don't know the answer, you
know, but I'm just saying I think it's more ambiguous than
the market would have us think right now.
And yeah, yeah, I think that's actually fair because I'm
looking at, I'm looking at the the last time.
So the last time they were they're both healthy or or or
and Kiante played a full game. I think Ingram had, he had five
routes and then Mercado had a tree routes.
So yeah, that that seems pretty fair.
Whereas like, we don't actually have a huge sample size of when
they're both healthy. Yeah.
And I think they're, I mean like if I have to give the edge to
one of them, like I think Ingram's probably a slightly
better football player than de Mercado.
And so I don't know, I think it's close though and the market
wouldn't have you believe that currently with everything I've
seen if you. If you already were on Ingram,
then good for you. You're you're thinking about it
critically, but it could be either guy is all I wanted to
say. I I wanted to point out Spears
as well on this chart just because we saw like flashes of
competency with the Tennessee offense, like Hopkins had a good
game and looked looked kind of like vintage Hopkins.
So I think that, I mean, let me let me paint you a picture.
It's Week 12. The Tennessee Titans are on A5
game win streak. Mike Vrable's got the team
squarely in the playoff hunt, Ryan Tannehill's looking like
vintage Ryan Tannehill, and the offense is humming and they're
you know, they're delivering usable fantasy weeks for
multiple weapons and Derrick Henry goes down and misses some
time. Isn't Taji Spears like?
Incredibly valuable, that with what we've seen from him and
like, if you look at it through the lens of this offense, could
get it together. Like it's not the wildest thing
in the world to think that a Mike Frabel team kind of gets
their shit together over the course of the season, right?
Like he's, he's a good coach. He's like very, very Boomerific
and that they really want to establish it and and all that.
Rob, Rob, you know. Bite their kneecaps.
Not all the way Dan Campbell. Bite their kneecaps.
But you know what I'm saying. But I think.
That that's an interesting situation.
So Spears is a great stash in my opinion.
Yeah, I mean, he's averaging since Week 3, he's had 10
expected points per game. So I almost think maybe he's one
of those players where you you you don't know the the week to
start them and but that all that that seems almost startable to
me. Would you say he's better in
basketball? I I was about to yeah.
So I mean OK so week one 8.8 expected points.
Week 278.88.5 and then 11.8. So like that seems like actually
like for a 0 RB team that seems actually you're you're happy to
start that. Yeah, if you it's.
Squarely in the win category for a 0 RB team, if you drafted
Spears, is a 0 RB part of your your RB cohort?
That's a that's a big W it's looking like and and the
contingent upside is fantastic, right?
That's like, yeah, that's the dream.
That's what you want. You're getting these little
usable weeks to not die at the position and in the event that
things break your way. All of a sudden you've got a
super team so so his ADP in the resurrection is 114 so I mean
that leads me to believe that and and and definitely in shower
leagues and then that he's available and if if you like me
have have some teams where you're not sure who who to start
at running back or or who to take like seems pretty crystal
clear like that's it an elite 0 RB option.
And here's a Here's a fun one. Yeah, Spears or Roshan Johnson.
Rest of season and I would say I I would say Spears just because
I guess Roshan has had the injury in front of him but then
you have to figure out ohh how's that going to work out with
Donta Foreman and and I out in the zero or be contingent upside
stuff. I always preferred the guy who's
already playing good snaps anyway because like there
there's there's no clearer signal that a team likes the guy
and trust the guy then they're already playing him like they're
taking snaps away from Derrick Henry to play this guy and like
I I there's definitely been signs that Derrick Henry is a
little bit past it the hill and but that to me they they they
they must love this guy and so if they're Henry wear them this
time they're like OK like next man up like they they they
already trust him So that to me is like I guess he is small and
and you have the issues but I'd be yeah I I having seen that
that outlook for him or that that start for him like I I
think that's super strong. That's a that's a good point I.
I I think I thought it was closer when I asked you that
question but you've swayed me. I've.
I've come around a little more and I like, I'm not the dump on
Roshan. I'm just like, super excited
about Taje. Yeah, that's fair.
And I don't I I guess it's it's a bit interesting that Devon
Signature is is on this chart that it it it felt a little bit
like at the start of the year that he was going to be a little
bit more irrelevant and feels pretty strong that he's there
and and and sort of like good distribution where he's got rush
attempts and he's got roots. So and the offense is sort of
humming like I don't know if he's I don't think he's exactly
startable but you're red. That's another one where he's
not startable basically but that's another one where your
contingent upside is. I just looked at the expected
points. He's not startable, but your
contingent upside is pretty good there, I think.
Yeah. I'm not as sold on the
contingent upside on that one. I mean, shoot.
Like, I don't think even if, say, Damian Pierce goes down.
They're not. They're not about to like Devon
Singletary Bell cow alpha back. He's going out of pick 210.
OK. Oh, OK.
Yeah. At pick 210 for sure.
Yeah, go go ahead. I'll I'll take him as a last
round pick, especially that that's like clear Miss Price to
me. Yeah, yeah.
You're OK with with that piece of context, 100% and especially
I guess going from Taj Spears to Devon Singh, injury is probably
like a little bit of whiplash. But given how like Dad and Berid
he is and he was on it, he was on our waiver wire at last week
for stock chasing, we didn't get him.
But like in in situations like that where you're you're trying
to pick cigar buts up off the grounds like premium, premium
cigar, but right. Here Ohh yeah there's still some
life left on that stogie for sure.
I I would say that the the Devon Singletary like.
Contingent upside at pick 210 is definitely way better than the
stuff that's available in that range.
And again, what we talked about in Resurrection, there's so much
less ambiguity. So during the offseason, when
you're drafting guys that are going like in that undrafted
range, there's some real gems there.
You know, there's Kyren, there's Puka, there's Tutu, there's
Justice Hill, there's, there's some awesome stuff.
But now like. The cat's out of the bag on most
of those guys so the ambiguous stuff is just for the most part
dead and gone. And so to get right Dev and
Singletary there where it's like people just buried in because
he's not not super exciting but like that's a guy might get you
7 points in a week that you need it, you know.
So, right, that's worth it at that point in the draft where
normally in best ball like with that last round pick.
Fuck your seven points. Like, give me, give me someone
who has some crazy upside, you know?
But like, right in resurrection. It's just that it's a slightly
different version of the game. Yeah, but right.
I mean he he had a he had 6 1/2 points in week 3 and like that
that and that's that's that's not even contingent value.
So like if you in some rougher 0 RB rooms, I guess you you still
get some starts but if they mean parents were to go down like I
definitely think 10 to 15 is like weekly is is pretty pretty
viable there. Yeah, you, you got me on the 10,
maybe not on the 15. Listen, I want, I want a
tournament on 15 points from Devon.
Single. Very.
There. All right, let's move to the
tight end chart here. And I like we still have
expected points. I mean, I think probably best to
talk about maybe some of the efficiency.
Yeah, when we talk so much about usage.
Yeah, When I was first looking at this chart, there were a
couple. We already talked about Swift,
we talked about Pacheco last week, but the stuff I was
noticing was guys in that 5 to 10 fantasy point range, which.
I mean, speak of the devil. There's Devin Singletary.
I saw a lot of guys though in that range, both on this one and
the next chart that we'll look at.
Whereas these are all kind of interesting, like there's a lot
of guys here where we talked about Taje Spears.
It's so funny, like all the guys that we just spent a bunch of
time talking about, they're all right there in this range.
That's why I had. Kind of identified this as a a
lucrative spot of the chart to to drill down on Jalen Warren
Taja Spears I think P Ryan you know really you're just looking
at Broncos backfield member ideally there's not three of
them active is is what you're looking at there with either
Jaleel or P Ryan but you know Justice Hill being in there too
we did see Justice Hill. Again, when he's healthy because
in that first week back he only got 11 staff.
So when he's healthy he's the one that's getting the high
value touches for the running backs which is does the thesis
all along on Justice Hill. And so I definitely think that
you can see this this group of guys here in this 5 to 10 range.
I see the potential for upward trajectory for a lot of them and
and we talked about a lot of them Charbonnay as well, we
didn't cover on because he had a he had a buy but.
Charbonnay I think is also interesting because we've seen
his snap share and his routes increase week over week and
Kenneth Walker's routes and involvement in the passing game
decreased a little bit and and Charbonnay looked has looked
like the kind of back that gets Pete Carroll all hot and
bothered too. You know, he's just willing to
run his face in another man's face, so.
But that range, that was my when I put this chart together, I was
like, man, this 5 to 10. Point range is actually what we
need to focus on and talk about this week because there's some
really interesting players here. Yeah and I agree and I I I guess
it we've we've sort of like hit on them all or or most of them
and I don't know know if there's anyone we haven't talked about
like I I mean we we've we've buried Nigel Harris like
honestly it's it's sort of shocking to see him in the five
to 10 expected points range like.
He's done. He's done a little better, you
know, for for like and I don't hear what I'm not saying like
still not gonna be drafted very much Naji Harris.
I mean, I know the market has started to come around on like a
more efficient price for him. But he's been better with
respect to like what Naji has been.
He's been the better version of Naji lately where he's had a
couple breakaway runs and. You know, I mean, he's the the
most frustrating thing about I I'm just, I'm going to put
myself in the headspace of a Naji Fantasy owner right now.
And I'm watching Naji Harris, who I was so excited to draft.
He's disappointed me all season and he breaks a long run and
he's breaking away from the defense and just when I'm
thinking he's going to pull away and score a touchdown.
There's defensive lineman gaining on him and he is getting
caught from behind by like the the ref who looks like he needs
a Walker to be out there on the field.
That's like also gaining on Naji like the dude is never take this
to the bank. Naji Harris will not have a
breakaway touchdown of more than 50 yards for the rest of his
career. There's no shot like you would
need an earthquake to put every defender on the ground for him
to do that, like this guy just cannot.
I mean he's he's having some of these breakaway runs but his top
end speed is just not there. So it that's got to be
frustrating if you're if you're a Naji.
Manager and you're watching him break away and you're like,
well, I'm never getting a touchdown of this, but I got my
two points for the 20 yards that he got me.
So that's cool. Yeah.
Yeah pretty, pretty rough set you you're sort of down bad for
getting efficiency and then also you're not get you're not
getting all all the work or even close to it.
You're getting 5 to 10 expected points.
Alright, that was our that was our contractually obligated shit
on Naji segment for the week. Yeah, so that's that.
Let's move on. One so call back to last chart,
but we could stay on this one because it's two players from
the different charts. But you'll you'll notice Sanders
on the last chart was starting to move in the wrong direction,
and Chuba is looking like he could be moving.
More in a desirable direction. Now there's that Sanders is
dealing with an injury, so we can't be 100% certain that it's
oh, the team feels that Cuba is the better option.
Cuba. Shout out to Ben Gretch for this
little nugget. Cuba has been taking a higher
percentage of the high value touches away from Sanders.
Sanders is getting more snaps, but Cuba is representing a
larger amount of the high value touches in the offense.
Which is not great. If you're a Miles Sanders
manager, you'd really prefer for him to have at least a
proportionate amount of the high value touches.
So I do think that's interesting for Cuba.
And again, like the theme holds for this week guys in that 5 to
10 fantasy point range. I think the reason that these
are interesting is because like for a lot of the higher end
guys, we've talked about them ad nauseam at this point and like
most of a lot of those trends are holding or like at least
continuing. And so it's kind of same old,
same old, but some of these guys in the five to 10 range look
like things could change for them.
And so that's why they're the most interesting.
I think another one that shows up on this chart in that area is
Cam Acres. Man, I don't know exactly how to
feel about it. So see, see where Madison is on
the chart, He's right on that, you know, barely in the 15 to 20
expected fantasy point threshold.
I think a lot of that is like kind of the the earlier weeks
holding in there from when he had even even higher usage.
How do you think this Acres and Madison stuff shakes out?
Where do both of them end respectively on this chart,
let's say six weeks from now? Where?
Where do those guys end up?
So I it does seem like it's sort of trending to where it's like a
hot hat in situation and like they're both sort of like. 5050,
so I guess if we're looking at Madison being at 15, let's say,
let's say just round numbers and there's 2020 total in the
backfield expected points. Then I guess for me, and maybe
this is a cop out, I'm just going to, I'm just going to
split it roughly in two and say they're.
Your boat end up around 10 and I guess that's been pretty much
what's been true the last two weeks.
So week four at Madison had 11.4, week five he had 9.9 so
that it like I feels like maybe and pretty fair.
Last two weeks and acres have been 5.94.7 so.
Yeah, I mean maybe, definitely on the, the, maybe the higher
random somewhere between 8:00 and 10:00 each is where I put
them it's. It's trending towards when I
when I looked at the data and thought like this is something I
I wanna ask, I I legitimately wanted to get your opinion on it
because that was the exact same conclusion I came to.
I was like, maybe I'm just like middling it too much.
I'm like those both be 10, whatever.
But I'm glad you felt the same way 'cause that makes me feel a
little more validated in my opinion.
It's like maybe maybe I'm just like anti Madison Pill then he
he should be higher. But no, I I agree with you, they
probably both end up right around that 10 fantasy point
range. And but I I think what you
mentioned about the hot hand thing is, is what makes this the
most interesting to me. And it's that it's not that
every week they will each be 10. It's that right?
On average they will be 10, but you will get usable weeks from
both of them. And I especially think that in
the games where the Vikings are playing weaker competition,
where especially teams that are weaker against the run, where
now they have less incentive to throw because the best wide
receiver in football is on IR for a couple weeks, you might
end up getting a little bit more out of these guys.
And that's really interesting. And what's especially
interesting is one of my best ball teams that I was just so
pissed at myself for drafting Cam Acres on, also had a really
early share of Alexander Madison at like pick 120 or something
stupid like that. So now I've got the the Fun
Madison Acres Ping Pong weeks. I'm sure you all care
tremendously about this. I will keep you posted on how it
goes this season, I'm sure that's.
Gonna be what advances me to the Finals.
The The Acres Madison Ping Pong in Week 16.
That said, that's a tournament winning combination right there.
Sure. Yeah, I was.
I was thrilled. I actually, I'd have taught and
just and and maybe I'm way off here.
I almost wondered though, if them not having Madison actually
stops them being able to run because.
Their offense is less efficient, so they're in less positive.
Down. Distant situations, they're less
like and have the lead. I almost wonder if Jefferson
being gone is a -100 hundred percent agree with you.
That's why I qualified it with. I think it's it's when they're
playing weaker teams, weaker competition, especially those
that are weak against the run. But in general I agree with you
it's it's bad news for both of these backs.
I think that you know it on on average it's gonna get worse for
these guys before it gets better and it's it's really just gonna
come down to how the season shakes out for the Vikings.
I I think that people that are talking about like all the
Vikings might blow it all up. They might trade away Kirk
Cousins like The thing is a little overblown #1 because that
division is just trash. I by the this is is a little bit
of a not segue but are the lions actually good Like I I feel I
feel like everyone's like on this I.
Hate to do this. Should we talk about some of the
situations where a guy's gotten injured and there's kind of like
Phillips? Or are there's people wondering
about like, hey, who at what? What?
What should I do? Like for example.
And what's the best What do you think is the best way to play
the Miami backfield right now? Have a piece of it, Literally
pick a card, any card. I'm If you're doing it off
waivers, it's Jeff Wilson, in my opinion.
But, like, if you can't get Jeff Wilson, just grab the next one.
You know, like, right, It's the. Yeah, it's.
You want a shot, right? Yeah, look at the efficiency,
look at the size of those bubbles, man.
Like I want whoever is getting right.
If Mike McDaniel himself is lining up in the backfield
taking like I'll take a shot on Mike McDaniel.
You know like just I I want a piece of the backfield.
So the the correct answer is play it, have a piece of it,
right. And then if you have a team like
for example, in season long, if you're trying to figure out how
to play it, I mean, if there's anyone that's got a chant in
your league and they're desperate, they need the
production now. Like that's the kind of guy
where I'm trying to go get it and and just hold it on my
roster. If I'm in a good position to
make the playoffs like that seems extremely lucrative.
But no, in general Jeff Wilson would be my, my preference
there. I mean, most assuming you're not
going to be able to get most or he's already rostered and no
one's gonna trade him now with a chant out so.
Yeah yeah most is already a a third round pick I'm sorry no
fourth round pick in Resurrection.
So definitely I I I think that's probably pretty out of reach and
but you you you you definitely want to be prioritizing and
getting a piece of it and and like you said even if Jeff
Wilson isn't there. You you want to you want to put
yourself in position where you could just lock into a
significant share or a reasonable share of the Miami
backfield. And and then the other one that
I, I, I was thinking about is and we touched on this a little
bit but what what how do you think is the best way to play
the the Bears backfield now that I guess?
And Herbert, he he had the injury.
And then I've seen some kind of news where, like, he could come
back, but he's gonna struggle to get to 100% for the rest of the
year. Yeah, I I mentioned in a
previous show when we talked about high ankle sprains and
kind of the mechanics of the injury and what it means for a
running back or a player's fantasy production, like due to
high ankle sprain is just a shitty injury.
Like I I wish that was not a possible thing to happen to a
human because that just sucks, man.
Like I'm I'm very sad for Khalil Herbert.
I I think he's a really good player and I was excited to see
like maybe if the Bears could get it together and he had some
positive game scripts to do some work in.
Like that's the kind of guy where you you know what we we
all want like Jalen Warren we we all talked about Jalen Warren
all offseason just like oh he could be like a Tony Pollard
kind of back like while Khalil Herbert's not terribly involved
in the passing game and to be fair Tony Pollard hasn't been as
involved in the passing in this season either He's he's like
explosive and efficient like Tony Pollard is.
So like I could have totally seen Herbert being a diet Tony
Pollard. But to talk about guys that we
actually can play going forward, cuz I think for Herbert you're
basically the way I'm treating Herbert in like a season long
format is I need to see it first before I'm gonna.
You know if you got a better option I need to see it from
Herbert first before I'm going to go back to the well on him.
I would prefer to have Rochon. I believe that Rochon's going to
be the guy where through the course of the season the team
seems to like Rochon a lot. I mean, #1, he's been active.
It's not to form, right, Healthy and active and and I know a big
part of that was that down to form doesn't play special teams.
I think Deonte's a fine back. He's like a totally replacement
level back that can go in and and do the work.
And he's a big guy. He can carry a load.
So I bet you especially if say, Roshan misses this week because
he's not all the way back from the concussion.
I mean, shoot, you could get a very good week out of Jaunta
Foreman this week and you probably can get some solid
usable weeks from him going forward.
But the guy I want to bet on is the guy with the wider range of
outcomes in Rochon and the guy that seems like a much more
competent piece in the passing game, where early in the season
we did see flashes that they were not only willing to use
them in the passing game, but they were they they gave him a
lot of targets in that. I mean, it was a lot of garbage
time stuff, but. I I think it was enough for me
to feel like yeah Roshon could get used a lot in the passing
game and get those high value touches and he's he's also got
the profile to be like a between the tackles like carry the load
full three down kind of workhorse guy.
So that's what I want, but I I think both are good ways to play
it, but I would have a lean towards Roshon.
Yeah, yeah. And you're at your Your argument
made me feel like OK. Like so I know like the fantasy
a lot of the the commentary that I've seen is like you know like
you just want to take shots on Eater.
But the fact it is interesting that Roshan was already active
which is sort of like a decent sign that they they like him
more and then then down to Foreman that like that does make
me think OK, you know there we there should be a separation in
in our expectations for the 2. Like our going in expectation
should be for the the favorite Roshan and where's like not not
going to default to like oh it's just going to be 5050 Dante
Foreman. He always comes in and does a
great job like it. It does feel a little bit like
you have pathways to Roshan just winning, just winning over a big
role and and and that's something to be quite excited
about. Yeah.
I mean, and especially with even like Fast forward to when Khalil
Herbert's fully healthy and back in action, like there's a good
chance that Rochon could have done enough.
You know if he's if he's good and he's playing well like it
could be a thing where well hey now it's Roshon and Khalil
Herbert are just gonna split the work one A1B and Roshon gets all
the passing stuff because we know that they don't like Khalil
Herbert in the passing game. And I I think he himself has
said like, ohh yeah I need to get better at that like that's
not my strong suit. So yeah I I definitely prefer
Roshon there. Were there any other injury
scenarios that we needed to go over?
No, no, I I feel like we covered we covered the Cardinals pretty
well. Was was we we we went over that.
We kind of gave the SAT so happy with that.
And then I, I, I, I think we're ready to move on to to tight
ends. OK, let's let's hit the tight
ends here. Ooh, getting away with myself.
And so with this is a tight end utilization and efficiency chart
where. Essentially we're looking at
what percentage of team dropbacks that they're running a
route and then just because it is useful to see when are how
often they on the field for these routes.
We have pass blocking in here too.
And so you can kind of see Dallas Goddard by far the
highest or maybe that's not the right way to put it, he is, he
is at the highest and so that that's kind of like the.
You know he's on the field, you know he's he's running a route
for the most amount of passes and then we don't want to focus
just solely on on if you're running a route, we want you to
get targeted too because like for example Marc Andrews, his
routes look a lot different to Toler Higbee because he's
getting targeted 21% of his routes, whereas Toler Higbee is
just 13%. Yeah.
And then just because we prefer down the field targets, we've
also got a dot. For example, George Kittle
targeted 8.4 yards down. The field on average is a lot
better than K Dotton's 4.1. Anybody here stick out is
surprising to you or sort of like priority targets?
Well, we've got a new member of the class this.
I should also say this one is also chose that week one that's
a rolling for week. Yeah just like the running back
one cuz usage is very important here but we've got a new
addition to this chart and it's my boy Jake Ferguson with his
25% targets per route run little pittily 4.9 a dot but man if
you're watching the Cowboys games he they sure do like
involving him. I mean there there wasn't much
to take away from the 49ers game other than the Cowboys got
absolutely curb somped but he he definitely looks viable.
I mean, shoot, like there's really not very many other tight
ends with targets per route run that high that you can get.
I do think you're gonna see his snaps go up a little bit.
He is not gonna climb this chart though to get to be he.
He's never gonna be like the getting 80% of snaps or 90% of
snaps kind of guy there. They are already showing us that
they want to involve their rookie second round tight end
who for whatever reason, like are Dutch last names just
impossible for announcers to pronounce like it's Luke
Schoonmacher. Like, it's not Schoon Maker.
Can we can we stop calling the dude Scoon Maker Jesus.
But anyway, yeah. I think just on on your
fragerson point, if if we look just at the last two weeks for
example he's been he's been on the field for 76% or 75% of
dropbacks. With a route running at 70%,
yeah. And that's that's more in line
with what I'm expecting for him for kind of the hold going
forward. I I think that you will see more
usage from Schoonmacher, but he he's Ferguson's going to be that
number one guy. I do think he's going to be able
to keep up that his targets for Routerunner.
It's not an aberration like this has been happening long enough.
Like he's that little safety blanket, you know, that's that's
what they're using him as. And so in full PDR, he's
fantastic, you know, fringe, fringe, tight in one.
Really what you're excited for is the Cowboys haven't scored a
ton of offensive touchdowns and they do really like to involve
their tight ends at the goal line.
And I I definitely am interested in when they get some more
favorable game scripts and situations.
I think that offense in general is going to have to they will be
forced to perform better out of necessity because their defense
just got decimated by injury. Like at the end of the 49ers
game, they literally didn't have a fourth defensive, a fourth
corner to go out on the field. They had three corners that were
healthy and able to go. So, like I I think that they're
hurting in the secondary now and they're they're probably gonna
get scored on and and that defense is gonna look less
threatening than it did early. So I think that's bullish for
Jake Ferguson because the offense will actually have to
finally score some points. But it remains to be seen if
they can. Yeah, makes that makes sense and
looks interesting to me that Zach Ertz is.
Like a state up here some of the players that like have been
surprising like Logan Thomas is like even though his his points
and overall targets have seemed to have been good.
Is is falling down a bit in terms of like the roots and
trying to figure out like a lot of part of the Logan Thomas
falling is we've got one game less where he ran all the routes
and we've got one game in there where he got his head damn near
taken off. And left the game.
That's true. So just since Week 4, he's been
out 78%. So yeah, you're right.
You're right. He I do I do like him as a he's
I I think between him and Jake Ferguson you're getting guys
that are they're getting there in slightly different ways but I
I think they're both interesting and kind of in like the same
tier of tight end. I would assume you know Logan
Thomas has a higher a dot but he's getting lower targets per
route run. I would assume they probably are
similar price. Do you know what their
resurrection price is? And this is Logan Thomas and
Zach Erts. And so I I'm sorry.
I was saying Logan Thomas and Jake Ferguson.
I would. I mean, Zach Erts.
And so, Logan Thomas, 139. And Ferguson is one.
Oh yeah, 104. So really good, good buying
opportunity for Logan Thomas and in my opinion about that one
stands out to me. Makes sense for sure where
you're getting him at the end of the 12th round so definitely
definitely getting a sort of a decent tight end during the 12th
round which is is tough to do especially when we've had so
many cards flipped over at this stage of the game.
So definitely probably a pretty strong and streaming target or
or like pick up if you've if you haven't gotten a leak tight end
or or if you get an injury or something like that and then you
see them on the way where definitely a priority target
there and the other one I see here that's a little bit
interesting is Irv Smith who is right at he's he's right around
he's right around like what just under under 80% so that I I
think that isn't a little bit interesting the target's not
there the a dot isn't great but a little bit.
It's it's concerning that the targets aren't there because
there is nobody on that offense outside of Jamar Chase.
So like if he had any target earning capability he would be
getting targets already. So for me and I, man, I want Irv
Smith to happen. I was, I was super excited about
Irv Smith early in his career when he was on the Vikings.
Like I is all about IRV, but I I think this is.
Pretty good signal that Earth Smith is not happening.
Like he he can't. Tyler boy doesn't look great
like he he's getting you know who we got Trent Taylor out
there like he's not earning targets over those guys.
Like it doesn't doesn't seem terribly promising And also in
an offense that's still outside of the Jamar chase going
absolutely nuclear against the Cardinals.
Like, I'm not totally convinced that.
The Bengals are back, you know, So Irv Smith, for me personally,
less interesting. But I do need to get your I need
to get your alpha on the Adam Troutman, Greg Dolcet situation.
I alluded to this earlier. For those of you that are with
us that did not follow Dricos Insider Intel this offseason, he
gave us. The information that Adam
Troutman was in fact the Broncos starting tight end Months before
the season, he let us know that Dulcich was not in fact the guy.
He saved me lots of money that would have gone.
I saved so much money myself from that.
I was so excited about Dulcich and yeah know somebody who knows
somebody and they're like yeah Adam Troutman was the starter
and OK so I feel it sounds like you're gonna ask me so dosage
coming back what's what's the outlook here And I think his
outlook is is really just gonna be like sort of like a
occasional tight end two. So you well it'll probably get
more snaps than than most tight end twos but you're probably
looking at 50% route share maybe 60% ish on a good week and and
more harms the the slot receiver role for the Broncos than
anything else and that and and and that's that's sort of like
what I'm expecting. So how how do you use that?
I'm not sure. I I, it makes me a little bit
concerned for Marvin Mims that like, OK, like they're putting
these dust balls on the field ahead of them and now they have
somebody who like, they actually like playing.
And that kind of hurts his ability to get on the field
more. But I don't know if that's if
that's that useful for fantasy. I don't know.
I do think it's useful in the fact that we know that it's
really, we talked about this earlier with respect to Russ.
It's hard like. Just like how Pat Mahomes is
really kind of hard to play in DFS because it's like, well, I I
basically have to play Mahomes with Kelsey.
I can't use any of the wide receivers because it's just too
like I'm just drawing too thin to actually pick the right one
in a given week. And like, I got a limited number
of entry. If I was allowed to have 10,000
entries, sure, there would be an optimal frequency to roll out
Mahomes with random wide receivers, you know?
But I think you're gonna see that with Wilson this season 2.
Unless you get a significant shift in how the Broncos are
operating their offense right now, you're not, you're you're
not going to be able to kind of dial in who in that passing game
is the guy that you want. And so how I would play it in
best ball going forward for resurrection is unless I'm
getting a significant discount on Broncos passing game options.
I'm really not taking them. I'm pretty much only taking them
when I'm stacking them with Russell Wilson.
I think when you have an offense like this where it's just so
hard to pin down who's going to be the guy scoring you points
regularly, you really just only want to be doing that when it's
correlated. So I think that's how you apply
that Adam Troutman inside info, right?
You're able to give us, so maybe maybe he's like Trout.
Sorry, not Troutman. Maybe Troutman and dosage it
when there's still minimum. Maybe that they are viable plays
as stocks. But you you really, you really
want to put it, Especially as you're thinking about something
like DFS. You can probably.
You probably do want to play some pretty strong slash jockey
plays around them. Yeah that's a that's a great
call just with the the QB tied in correlation being so strong
and so much based on you know touchdown scoring that's that's
probably. I I'm also mad at you for that.
Because now I there's there's going to be a week where I light
some money on fire playing Russell Wilson with a stupid
tight end stack. And I'm gonna be looking at my
phone at like 1:00 on a Sunday afternoon.
Like, well, there goes all those lineups, all those Russell
Wilson tight end stack lineups. Damn it.
Drink. Yeah, the in the the info, the
alpha it give it and I take it away.
Yeah, it saved my best ball bags, but it's I'm gonna light
some DFS money on fire. I already know, so let's move on
to the backup section of the chart and.
There's two. There's literally 2 here.
I'm gonna save us some time. There's two guys worth talking
about here. Okay.
One of them is Michael Meyer. Because he he started to get
some usage and it was like downfield targets and holy cow
surprise the guy who was heralded as like the best tight
end in the class looks really good at playing tight end.
Like who could have, yeah, he he looks he looks good man.
And so 41% Reacher last week, 18% targets forever run and then
2.3, yeah, yards per at run. So like that's that's more than
signs of life. That's like, oh, they involve
them and like you said, he's good like this.
This is this is about as positive a week you could have
gotten given the first couple. My The way I want to apply this
information going forward is I still think it might take a
while for us to get there with mayor.
In best fall the In resurrection prior to this week, I would not
have drafted Michael Mayer, right I was.
I was getting enough signal from the Raiders and it's like, dude,
this guy's not ever going to be usable this season.
Maybe one week, you know. But now this was enough signs of
life where I'm like, OK, I could see this being kind of a slow
burn over the course of the season where he's earning more
and more playing time in an offense where it's really
concentrated. And so if he works his way into
that offense where it's hey, we passed the three guys and three
guys only it's Devante Adams, Jacoby Myers and Michael Mayer.
And those are the guys that received passes, then I'm all of
a sudden very interested. So.
He's he's back to life for me in a resurrection draft.
You know in the weird instances where the Raiders make the
playoffs. I I could maybe.
No, I'm never. I'm literally never taking him
as like a late round playoff basketball dart throw because
I'm literally only doing not right.
Raiders are doing the Super Bowl you know.
But yeah. Anyway though Michael Mayer back
to life. Definitely worth talking about.
The other one is Noah Gray. Just because of the Travis
Kelsey injury, Kelsey came back into the game, I'm sure he got
all of the best painkillers to be able to do that because that
ankle sprain, dude, it looked like that shit hurt.
The way the way he went down and like everyone who's ever
sprained that ankle bad, dude, everyone who's sprained their
ankle bad before knows like, Oh my gosh, that one sucked like
you, you know, I mean, with how frustrated he was on the
sideline, like, yeah, that one hurt.
And and you hear guys talk about like, Oh yeah, with the
adrenaline and the painkillers, like you're able to come back
one week, but a lot of the times the next week, like it's a it's
a lot harder to go. So it's a short week.
We'll we'll find out tomorrow. It sounds like he's trending
towards playing. He's practicing.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see more Noah Gray.
And I would just kind of keep a eye on Noah Gray in the event
that, you know, Kelsey reaggregates the ankle or
something. Noah Gray becomes very
interesting. So that was those are the two on
my radar. Was there anyone else that you
wanted to talk about or any anything to add on Noah Gray and
the only the only I guess worried that I would have is
that when Kelsey was out week one it did seem like so I I was
watching. I remember watching the week one
game in Vegas and every time a white tight end for the Chiefs
caught the ball I just assumed that it was Noah Gray.
And then I looked at the I looked at the the the the box
score and and there was the other guy.
It was like almost like split. Even though Noah Gray was
running the roots the other guy was like getting almost half the
targets. I I, I'm, I'm drawing a blank on
a on that other guy's name. Blake Bell, Blake Bell seem to
be getting a decent amount, so I guess my concern would be that
even even if Kelsey goes down that maybe it's harder for a
grade to sort of like consolidate the targets even
with Kelsey down. But again, it's tight end so
it's not like you need Kelsey usage to to pay off.
Like could still be very interesting.
Yeah, yeah, I just yeah. It was worth mentioning with the
Kelsey injury but that is a good point.
It's not a it's not a guaranteed sure thing that Noah Gray is
gonna be, you know, he's certainly not gonna be Travis
Kelsey. But he could he could be
somewhat usable. But yeah, for sure.
And so yeah, let's like you alluded to, let's, let's move on
to the wide receiver section and looks like we have, we we have
pretty clearly like the the, the halves part of the chart and
then like a big cluster in the middle and that we have the we
have the the what you call it the cardio route runners.
So and I guess I'll explain this chart again.
So we've got weighted targets per out run and this is sort of
like just targets per out run, but weighted towards down the
field throws. And so guys who get a high
percentage of targets and down the field are on the right side.
And then guys who either don't get targeted enough or their
targets are too close to the line of scrimmage down to the
left. And then just because we do want
fantasy points and we have that on the on the the vertical axis
and then the color of the dot also corresponds to their route
share. When I when I put the shirt
together, there's a couple things that I look at.
It's first, first thing, usually there's not a ton of guys in
this top left quadrant, but these are the regression
candidates, right? Guys scoring a lot of fantasy
points on, you know, low, low, low weighted targets per route
run. And so here we've got Adam
Thielen and Gabe Davis living here.
Gabe Davis makes a ton of sense. We saw you know he he's just
getting there on it's hey, he gets a couple deep targets every
once in a while or like an end zone target here and there.
And this, this week it was funny.
He got a a pass interference caller, not a pass.
He got an offensive penalty that called, called back a touchdown,
and then on the very next play, he got the touchdown anyway.
But I I would expect, you know this is a good week for Gabe
Davis. I would expect him to probably
come in with a little bit lower fantasy points per game.
Adam Thielen I think is like such a clear sell high candidate
#1 because there's just no chance that this guy is going to
keep scoring touchdowns like he's just getting these garbage
time touchdowns and like all of just an insane amount of targets
I. Right.
Right now we're seeing like the right tail outcomes for Adam
Thielen. And when you get an actual like
mean outcome for Adam Thielen, which is like, what do you
think, 7 targets for five receptions and 58 yards, no
touchdown, Like you're not pleased, you know?
And so if you can trick anyone into buying your Adam Thielen
lemons, you should be offloading them.
But that was that was in the regression category.
Any any guys to add in that category for you and so who else
is there and you know I think honestly I think at this stage
that's probably the strongest sort of like regression shout I
think and it I mean it is interesting seeing Adam Teelin
play well like he's obviously not he's not getting targets
that are like really down the field and but his his yard for
reception are not awful they're like around he's getting around
10 yards for reception this fight and his a dot being around
let's say 7. So it's like it's it's a bit
interesting that he's like he's playing good, I don't feel in
football. And then I I do remember when he
was younger, it felt like every week he can't score this many
touchdowns every week and then I don't feel and scores another
touchdown. And so I mean there's part of me
that's sort of like especially at the price that you were
getting before that maybe was too quick to to bury him like
that. Maybe he he clearly does have
some life left in him and where he's like somewhat A viable best
ball player and but at the same time like you said you're you're
clearly getting the the best Adam tealing games you can and
like as an older player like the weeks one through 5 those are
those are almost always going to be the best weeks for a player
like that. Like, you're the chances that
you get this kind of play from him down the playoff stretch.
Really ten. Really 10?
And and that was always my point with Adam Thielen, I I have very
little to no Adam Thielen. I might have a full fate on him
in BBM and the traditional format season long type
tournaments because I don't care about your week one through 4
points, just going in the sixth round.
Yeah that's I'm, I'm fully out. But you know where I did draft
Adam Thielen. I drafted him as some weekly
winners teams because I was like you know what I've got a team
that's really well constructed for Week 6.
Let's let's throw a little Adam Thielen on there.
Got it. Got a team where I've got a
bunch of bringbacks for Week 3. Let's throw an Adam Thielen
share in there. Why not Because then I can't
your your production does matter.
That is all the money is in this week now.
So I can use Adam Thielen. So that's kind of my my stance
on it. And if Adam Thielen does this
the whole season and it's the fantasy playoffs and I just get
buried by having no Adam Thielen Mia Culpa, you know hey that
one's on me right? I I shouldn't shouldn't have
read them off. But I I'm not feeling as as
scared as I I if you'd told me, you know, hey, by you know Week
5 Adam Thielen is going to have, you know multiple 30 point
games. I I would feel like I'd probably
be pretty scared of that, but honestly, I'm not.
I I just feel like it's not that sustainable.
The other guy to transition into another one who's like a
borderline regression candidate. It's just DJ Moore.
And it's not to say the DJ Moore is going to be bad, but it's to
say that the amount of fantasy points per game DJ Moore has
been scoring. Is a lot relative to his
weighted targets per route run. I would expect him to be more,
you know, You know what makes a ton of sense to me is like DJ
Moore as like a Debo Samuelish kind of player and that he's
doing so much, you know, yards after catch.
And DJ Moore I think is a better wide receiver than Debo.
But they're both awesome football players.
They're both of those geysers. Absolute beasts like can really
make their hay after the catch. And so I think they're kind of a
similarish archetype. I do think DJ Moore's probably
got the slight edge in receiving, but maybe do offsets
that with his work that he gets in the running game.
And so I would expect those players to come in a little
closer to each other on the chart.
So that's a that's a regression candidate.
Again, not saying DJ Moore's gonna be bad, but just saying
like, that's a guy that's kind of looking like a potential
outlier. The other guy that I think it
they're they're in a similar weighted targets per route run
category but it looks like a guy that could be ascending is say
Flowers we saw there's there's a couple reasons I feel like say
Flowers is really interesting #1 all of the other Ravens I mean
say Flowers included all of the Ravens pass catchers decided
that they totally forgot how to catch a football and so it's
like the the. Opportunity is there for the
taking. It's whoever.
Whoever emerges as like a reliable weapon could really
consolidate some stuff there. And they finally saw some deeper
targets. He actually got some decent air
yards on a was it a 11 target day A 13 He.
He got a substantial number of targets this week.
Pretty interested in day. Flowers could see him.
He looks like the classic rookie profile where his production's
gonna increase as the season goes on.
Really, really excited about Zay Flowers.
He looks like he could be a big hit.
And yeah, Zay Flowers and definitely, definitely agree
there. And I think what might help him
a bit too is that is all the drops that you had from the
other receivers, whereas. Maybe yeah.
Yeah maybe if he if he's able to sort of like continue to play
well and and like become a trusted receiver like you
definitely have strong paths here where it's it's like as as
he develops and he is and he emerges that like OK that we
have to we have to run our passing offense through Marc
Andrews and Zay Flowers. Like we just have to do it and.
I I I think I think that makes a lot of sense and do you I guess
my my question there is are are are you and leaving Bateman for
dead. I don't want to.
I think he's a good player that that drop was so egregious so
and it really kind of seems like the Ravens don't think he's a
good player right. I I don't know man.
I I gotta say, there's still a little bit there.
There's probably bag defending, but there's a little bit in my
brain where I'm just like he'd have like no time with this
offense in the offseason. It's a new system like and and
really like Bateman hasn't played a ton of actual NFL
games. You know he's been injured so
much. So there's there's a little bit
of me that's trying to like rationalized it or justified as
like maybe we get that kind of typical rookie production change
over the course of the season that you see with rookies where
their production's gonna increase as the season goes on.
Maybe we see that with Bateman. That's really my only hope for
Bateman, but man, it looks pretty bleak.
The the, I guess the other best thing you could say for him is
just like we talked about, tons of drops.
No one's really like established themselves as the dominant
option. All those a flowers looks like
he's already got, you know, he's got a head start on the other
receiving options there if if you had to.
If I had to put money on it, I'd say it ends up being a pretty
concentrated passing tree where it's Andrews Flowers and then
whatever Aguilar Bateman OBJ like mix in for every week is
purely unusable in fantasy. It's just it's only there to
annoy you as the Zay flowers or Mark Andrews owner, so.
Yeah, yeah. Makes yeah, makes sense for
sure. And I think that that is that is
a tough one to to talk about as well and just because.
It's clearly like it's clearly an offense where like when
things click like there there's gonna be fireworks for sure and
just because it's it's got Lamar Jackson and they're trying to
pass more But when you I guess when you haven't had the points
from really anyone option and it it's super hard to like be like
confident but definitely agree fire and away the Zayflower is
is is like sort of like. Easily the best bet to where to
be the this sort of like emergence and so you pick 61 in
a resurrection and feel like there's a lot of ways for you to
get paid off like and I want to say paid off not just like
perform a DP like there's a lot of ways for that to be for zay
flowers to be like at just a total complete Zamdong smash at
that peak. Yeah six.
I I was hoping you would say later because I wanna be able to
just like feel like OK cool. It's 100% say flowers that's the
way to play it. So I mean pick 61 is still a
good price like you you probably get a lot of wins in there but I
was I was hoping you were gonna say something like 70 but that's
I mean dude what's the difference between 61 and 70
Like I'm it's just the it's the value hound in me.
I I had a couple guys that I wanna I wanna like rapid fire
here where it wasn't like a huge change but more just like
confirming A trend or so Puka with Cooper cut back we got
enough information that Puka is gonna be still heavily involved
in the offense for people that got puka on waivers for people
that drafted Puka looking like an enormous win.
It's just like that's the Robert Woods role in this offense and
it's it's gotta be here to stay. So great great news for Puka.
I I know that there were some people that were thinking that
this week you might start to see him lose a lot of work with cut
back but it just looks like it's it's the clear one and two and
then 22 we'll talk about later he shows up on the later charts
but so Puka was was one I wanted to hit on the other one Jacoby
Myers just we we talked about it briefly the Raiders offense so
so concentrated Jacoby looks like a smash where he was going
all summer in basketball fantastic pick just yeah this
this reminds me of the when you have the Vikings with Steph
Diggs and Adam Thielen whereas like there are two players that
catch passes on this NFL football team and these are them
like that's it here for the Raiders it's Devante Adams it's
Jacoby Myers and man that's that's super appealing you love
when it often gets that concentrated it just gets so
easy to play it that way so that would that would be 1 where I
bet you bet you Jimmy G's probably I mean Jimmy G doesn't
look great but for for best ball just with the prices of
quarterbacks and I mean I don't know about you when I'm looking
at a lot of my best ball teams some of my best teams are the
full punt QB teams where I've just got certified studs
everywhere but QB but I'm getting right 17 to 20 points
from Jimmy G and you know so owl gives me a spike week here and
there so I'm assuming Jimmy G still goes really late in
resurrection And let me let me tell you I do think it's
interesting where so Jimmy G goes to pick 192.
Ohh yeah baby, load it up. Load if you're If you're
drafting resurrection, I'm assuming where?
Where's Jacoby at now? Gotta be in the 50s.
So he's still at 81. Oh my God, if you're drafting
Resurrection and you don't have 100% Jacobi Meyers and Jimmy G,
you're playing the game wrong. Like, normally I'm not gonna be
100% of a guy thing, but like, the market is not doing that
correctly. It's it's so concentrated.
It's so good for best fall when you get something like this,
Like literally if. Levante Adams is still picked
13. So if you're listening to this
right now, fire up as many resurrection drafts as you can.
Queue up the Raiders players and just make sure you don't auto
draft them too early and just load it up baby.
Like pack the bags, fill them all the way to the brim.
That's that's gonna make me draft resurrection teams.
Literally when we finish the show I'm gonna go, I'm gonna get
in bed and fire up like 20 Resurrection drafts and just
multi table it and do 20 Raiders stacks.
So normally when you when we were saying goodbye after after
the show, you tell me I'm gonna make some dinner so you're gonna
be eating up some some Raider sucks.
Yeah, we're we're literally skipping dinner to draft
Raiders. Probably not too interested in
Josh. Are you interested in Josh
Jacobs up Pick 25. I know you covered it.
Runway it's it's one where knowing the price of the rest of
the offense, I want that in my team stack.
I think running backs in team stacks are very valuable and so
the way that I will play it is the majority of my Raiders
stacks wouldn't have Josh Jacobs.
But the the stacks where Josh Jacobs falls past ADP
significantly 25 gross. So there's probably.
Well, just to just to think true it a bit, if Adams is at the end
of the first start of the second, then you the only way
you would get him is if you fail to the end of the third.
So that's and you would be interested there.
Then then I would do it, yeah. So.
So that's a pretty natural clean.
Like, he's not gonna be in most of them, but maybe some.
Yeah, I I love. I love when the game gives you
that. Kind of like, governor on your
frequencies to do things. Yeah, that.
I do think that's appealing. I do think we've had, we've had
some some people that pretty upset to see Datsun in the
bottom part of the chart and I think I think we we have
actually covered the the commander situation in previous
weeks, but just maybe briefly touch on it.
And so here's that well, 11 problem for Dotson on this chart
is that his a dot is not the It's not the highest.
And so let me just and his average depth of target has been
the highest has been his 10.3. And he's had some weeks with
87.3 and then 10 and 10. So he hasn't really been
targeted down the field and then his target correct run, the base
number hasn't been too great either.
So it's been 18 percent, 10%, eleven percent, 21 percent, 9%,
so sort of averaging out at 14% targets per at run and it does
feel like the the commanders are they spread the ball out too
much. And I know that sort of like
sharp people have called out for and listen it's Datsun, he needs
to like he's one of your best players.
Him and Terry McCarron, they they need to get the ball more
and but I guess this this chart is just telling us that it it it
hasn't been like that and super disappointing just especially
with like his late surge in a DP, like definitely really
disappointing. Yeah, let me yeah, let me check
out Dawson's there ATP. So he's now at the end of the
tenth round, so, so pretty close to Logan Thomas.
And I was gonna say I like just straight up.
I think I prefer Logan Thomas for the tight end eligibility.
I don't think they're super different in what they get in
this offense, and so give me the guy with tight end eligibility.
Right. They they're they're clearly
prioritizing Logan Thomas over Dotson.
Super disappointing. But.
And I, I and I think what's also interesting is in the context of
like he wasn't a Dustin wasn't a phenomenal prospect either where
like he he was sort of behind who's the who's the Broncos slot
receiver, the fast slot receiver that we used to be excited
about. KJ Hammer.
Ohh KJ Hammer. KJ Hammer in Penn State and like
didn't really do too much and then when KJ Hammer graduated
Danny had a big four year our our senior year when he was kind
of like a little bit older. And so like that's that's not
like obviously a prospect profile isn't everything but
maybe in the context of like you know he hasn't that he hasn't
been the best here that that is sort of like.
Getting pretty concerning here in his second year.
He's not at. He's not commanding targets.
Yeah. And I I'm more in the camp of
saying that this is the the new normal for Dotson.
It's not. Yeah.
I I'm not terribly optimistic for Dotson.
The last one I wanted to hit on on this chart was just Michael
Pittman with the Anthony Richardson injury, his situation
changing with Gardner Minshew at quarterback.
And do you think we're going to see more passing volume just
simply because there's less place where they're going to be
QB rushes? So I I think Pittman, I'm not
not entirely sure if he ends up, you know, moving farther down
the chart on the way to targets per route run, but I do think
you're going to get those targets to him slightly higher
quality, right. I think it's fair to say that
the issue is going to be more accurate than Anthony Richardson
from what we've seen from both of them.
So I would expect that Pittman probably moves up a little bit
as far as efficiency and his fantasy points per game.
So that's one where he he's looking.
Honestly, I remember during draft season drafting Michael
Pittman always felt like, God, I I had to click Michael Pittman
because I I was going to get buried at wide receiver if I
didn't. And I feel really yucky.
I didn't want to do it. But he's, he's looking like he
was pretty appropriately priced. He might even be a little
underpriced in the market. So that's that's looking like a
W for all the Michael Pittman drafters out there.
Right now he's he's middle of the 5th OK, which feels pretty.
Not not not at not something that you can really take
advantage of. No, I mean, I'm not certainly
not hitting him as hard as I'm hitting Jacobi Meyers later
tonight. Right.
So, yeah, and that's let's move on to this sort of like the
Inbetweener chart and this one where you've got guys who's 70
to 85% roots run so same chart but just and players where
they're not. Quite every down starters but
they are like you you you see a bunch of pretty clear cut
fantasy starters here and and I I guess it's sort of the the the
the thing that I noticed right away is that Terry Mccorin is
also in this this part of the chart where he's all he's he's
sort of like in the regression part.
Where he hasn't just been, hasn't been getting the the the
targets but he's just a little bit over 10 points a game and
probably some of that, probably some of that is like he's he's
in the the top bucket in in root share.
But it it it does call in. It does call in the question
like what? What really are the commanders
doing? And when they're not using their
wide receivers that much, yeah, I wanna, I want to look at
McClure and I'm pulling him up here and the PFF data, I want to
say that part of it was in his in his weeks, the earlier weeks
where he's coming back from the injury.
Right. Yeah, yeah, that's a that's a
good problem. So his target threat run started
off as 12% week, 117% week two and.
Week 3 and 420 and 23% and then last week 10%.
So I guess if you're using a rolling tree week 18% it says
normal not weighted targets per at run and so still not not
really concentrated. And so that that is making me
think that this is sort of sort of feel like an offense where
it's hard to hard to be interested so so might be so if
we're kind of thinking through like the offenses where they're
less desirable. You know that we touched on the
giants talked about the commanders talked about the
Broncos passing game. Do you say it's fair to kind of
categorize those three together as even though the quarterbacks,
you know, especially at their price like you know Sam Sam
Howell has delivered you a good spike week and that's really all
you all you could ask for for a guy at that the price that he
was going at and you know Russ has been fine especially for his
price. But it's really just those the
other weapons, the skill position players I guess really
in the receiving game cuz cuz like Brian Robinson has been
good, you know and the Broncos running backs have been fine as
a group. For as an individual it's been a
little thin. The Giants haven't been good
anywhere. But I I you right.
It's a good good categorization of.
Lump Yeah, yeah, yeah, together. I mean obviously the the
commanders and Broncos have had better offensive success, but
just very like it's not concentrating on on anyone.
So that makes it hard to like really, truly recommend any of
these players. For sure.
I didn't, I didn't have a ton more on this chart.
I guess Josh Downs kind of the same discussion that we had
about Michael Pittman, interested in him potentially
seeing more targets with Minshew seeing higher quality targets.
I think he's good. He's like actually good.
So that's one that I'm interested in.
I'm going to rapid fire a couple guys.
Michael Wilson had a comeback down to earth Game just like one
target. Whatever.
But you know what the the Michael Wilson thesis of Hey,
this is my random bring back guy for Week 17 against the Eagles
and it's a rookie receiver. That and the Cardinals, you
know, probably will will at least give him some run.
By then the thesis looks clearly correct.
Whether you get the result that you need in Week 17, that's up
to the gods of randomness. But you know good good analysis
for the people that were saying Michael Wilson, you know just
just cuz he got one target this week doesn't mean anything.
It's hey, we saw the kind of game that he can deliver with
the two touchdowns and lots of catches.
That's all you really needed from the guy.
So whatever. Probably not super startable and
like season long fantasy, but definitely someone where if he
was your last round best ball pick you could have done worse.
Right, right. And it does feel like every year
and. People people talk about like
hey there's so much opportunity here like I I wanna be here.
I I I this is something where it has to be somebody and I I'm
gonna do it with this guy and and it does feel like we get
those kind of hits every year but it's it's also it's easy to
forget it's happened more frequently this year and where
those guys hit but we also get a lot of those guys where and it
just didn't work at all like the Brashad Perriman pick where like
oh there's opportunity here and and he's just going to fall into
it and and they get cut or it doesn't work there.
Like Van Jefferson is another example where people would have
been drafting him highly because of the Cooper Cup injury and now
he's at now he plays with the Falcons.
Yeah. Well, I I I'm with you where it
it's it is hard to like find the take here where we haven't
discussed it already. Yeah.
I think we're good to move on to the last chart because there
were a couple guys on this last one, Okay, that I wanted to talk
about. Ohh.
Yeah, you go ahead. So Christian Watson got, I mean
his his weighted targets for route run is really high
especially for a guy seeing the the amount of routes that he is.
So I I'm not entirely sure how I feel about Christian Watson.
I feel like in that offense, like it's clear that someone has
to do something because you know right now this whole thing of
none of them do anything. Like we saw on on Monday, like
that's not going to work. So someone's got to step up and
do something. Whether it's gonna be one of the
receivers or whether it really requires Aaron Jones coming
back, I think it's yet to be seen from watching the game
really. Like all that Watson got was a
deep target and like, yeah, that's what you want.
And and it should have been a touchdown, it was a horse collar
tackle. Honestly, it's kind of bullshit
that like, I I feel like there there are plays like that where
it's like dude, that's a touchdown.
Like, you can't just foul a guy and have it not be a touchdown
now. Like, well, I don't know.
That's what they coached to do. Yeah.
Oh, for sure. Yeah, oh 100%.
I think the players are playing that optimally.
It's just the rule is stupid. Like if if you're telling me
that what I should do is potentially maim this man by
horse collaring him and that is the optimal way to play to win
this game, fuck your rules. Those are some stupid rules.
Like, I mean, shoot, if I was a player, be in that situation.
I'm maiming away, maybe let me let me name him because
otherwise it's a touchdown, so he should have had a huge splash
touchdown play. To me, what you're looking at
with Christian Watson is he needs to deliver games like that
with those splash touchdown plays at a high enough frequency
to pay off his fourth round cost.
I don't think that's going to happen, is my early read on it,
just from seeing I. I'm I'm gonna get ready to heat
myself up a big helping of Crow here for for when this when he
just jams it down my throat. But I don't think he's that
good. I I think he's you know I I
watched a guy just like him in the XFL this season and you know
I I really don't think he's anything but Martavis Bryant.
Like if you watch the last play of the game where?
A good player wins the game for Green Bay because he goes and
makes a contested catch on an under thrown ball and just
alphas that shit away from the defender, spikes the ball and
walks off with a dub. Like Christian Watson.
Just like looked like a little boy there and got alphaed by the
defender and the dude picked it off and that's game.
You know, I I don't know man. Christian Watson, I don't think
is actually that good. I think he's an athletic freak.
I think he's still raw as a wide receiver.
And so you're going to get the Hey, this is a super athletic
guy who's fast as fuck, and he'll score a breakaway
touchdown every once in a while. Don't think it's a kind of
player that I want to be paying. This is Gabe Davis on a worse
offense, man. Like, what are we doing?
What are we doing? I mean it is his usage thoughts
were good like he had 187 air yards and 24% targets per at
run. Yeah, 7 targets.
So like good usage there. And but then to only get what,
11.6 Pbr points from that and I guess you could call some of the
variance that maybe if he adds the touchdown like you're, well,
if he adds the touchdown, you're getting closer to 18 points
there. But a lot of the other targets
were nothing. Burgers, though.
It was like, here's Christian Watson 5 yards down the field.
Woo. Like on a on a play where the
defense couldn't care less about giving him 5 yard.
You know, like, I don't know. I'm.
I'm fully ready to eat my curl on this.
But yeah, I I don't know. Like, I get it.
And where like maybe some of them are like really deep down
the field it's like you have 250 yard and and then a bunch of
like lower a dot stuff and but 187 that's that's that's a lot
of air yards and but it's if if the distribution is working out
like that then those those can often be players then where you
don't actually get that good good a score because like
getting let's say getting 5 targets 20 yards down the field
400 area yards is is way better than like 170 yard bomb and then
for like whatever whatever the remaining area yards divided by
by 4 is. So yeah, the distribution could
definitely work against him there.
So definitely understand that for sure.
That's that's very well put and I feel like you explained my
point in a much more intelligent way than Christian Watson bad.
So thank you for that. I I didn't have a ton of other
guys on this chart to add though.
Did you did you have anyone else?
So just person Watson still pick 51 so happen to take him in the
fifth round which does it feels definitely rich for the
information we've gotten on this offense and then definitely with
like I mean he wasn't a great Christian Watson wasn't a great
prospect so definitely yeah definitely understand the point
there and. Christian Watson at 51 couldn't
be me right. I didn't take very much this
year even though the the the the the way the targets were
excellent last year and then but it did feel just a little bit
too rich given the given the overall profile and so tank Dell
up here I think we've discussed that super excited Z Jones the
cheap Jaguar sort of like not at not quite paying off or not
quite giving you something to be excited about and but would hope
for hope for a big week and in the future And I did notice that
Sky Mur he's available in our he was available on waivers in our
in our main event team and he definitely looks like a player
who who should be available. And and on waivers he shall
remain and but yeah, nothing. Nothing else really compelling
here, I don't think. Well, do you?
I I know we went over 2 hours so maybe we just do do a quick fun
little thing here. But I I did want to show off the
the BBM4 leaderboard that we've got up over at Spike week.
Now it's like an actual leaderboard where you can see,
you know, the whole teams of the players and the scores for each
week and everything, and look at different combinations and.
Cool stuff. I wanted to go through a couple
here, maybe maybe like the top team and a couple combos, but we
we did have a pretty long, pretty long one here.
But we'll we'll kind of look at this real quick, OK?
Do you know how to share a screen on this?
I think I'm doing it. Did I do it?
I think you did it. All right, so this here is our
premium leaderboard. Yeah, Zoom.
Though you're right. Thank you.
Let's there we go. So this is our premium
leaderboard. If you have a Spike Week
subscription, you can see this. You can do the leaderboard with
players, which is just gonna be like this really what the
premium lets you do. Is see specific weeks and like
all the points and everything. So we'll we'll do that one
because that's the most fun. But I I did want to look at the
top team here I do think was it Steph did you get this guy to
share his team over on Twitter? But now if we run into the
random first place team and no one can suss the guy out on
Twitter or figure out who he is don't worry we'll be able to see
the team. So first place, definitely.
Has seen better days at quarterback with his Anthony
Richardson going down, but I mean, he's got all the usual
suspects you'd expect on a first place team with Puka and Kyron.
He's got Mostert and a chain and or a Chan in there.
Taji's exciting. The bully tight end though is
very interesting. I'm pretty sure that this guy's
just gonna gonna wind up kind of dead at at wide receiver here as
the season goes on. Looks a little bit thin.
A lot of three QV teams at the top right now.
This team though, this was one that I looked at earlier with
the Josh Allen, Justin Fields. This one I do think is kind of
dead though for first place because they're both Week 13
buys and like, if you're trying to literally hit the nuts as the
first overall highest scoring team in regular season.
You gotta have something crazy happen like basically this guy's
out is he needs Mac Hollins to score enough to replace whatever
like anyone who have a a good number of his combos covered
like his week 13 quarterback score that he misses out on.
He needs Mac Hollins or like Chase Brown to score like one of
these guys that's not you see this 8% owned here.
That shows the frequency with which they were drafted.
So a player that's drafted and every draft will be 8%.
Anyone under that is. You know you can see basically
as a proportion so this guy who's drafted in five out of
every eight drafts basically you know kind of a quick way to do
that. But yeah we we don't we don't
have to scroll through too many here.
I didn't I didn't see anyone that I recognized from like
deposit Kingdom or or ship chasing here at the very top.
But if you're if you're wanting to to play around with this it's
I was having a lot of fun earlier.
You can toggle through 500 lineups here at a time and have
them all be displayed. If you're not wanting to look at
all the players, you can do up to 1000 at a time.
Just kind of flip through them really quick.
Find yourself. If you are a Spike week member,
you get your little your little Spike week thing there.
And then if you're wanting to to search for yourself, like let's
see, do I have any between 7000? Oh, OK.
This this doppelgang or name guy, this SAC Dance character.
Let's see. Rocking here.
Oh we we went all the way back to the start.
We have to we're we're not gonna go through all that trouble
again. But I I keep seeing this guy on
the leaderboards and I was looking up his exposures as
well. He's got like all the same
overweight positions as me. I I gotta gotta find this
character. Steph, are you are you up in the
top 500? We'll pull you up here.
Oh, you're. I am actually curious where
walrus balls is. Walrus Prawls is still pretty
high up. We got OK so Steph's Rockin
place 475 here. Jalen Hurts Jordan Love that's a
that was a really nice start that you got from Jordan Love to
get those especially when Hurts is having some of the lower
scoring weeks. ETN B Rob Warren A Chan that's
really nice. The Chandler stuff, you're
you're feeling a little thinner there now with.
With acres there. But I mean your wide receivers
are also so nasty. The Mike Williams one is pretty
painful though that's going to be really hard to to be live for
first place. It's just so, so tough.
You basically have to hit the nuts like we're talking about
this earlier with respect to the drafters format.
But like teams with Justin Jefferson and drafters, you're
dead. Like, sorry, no first place for
you. Teams with a Chan and drafters,
you're dead unlucky like. You you pretty much have to hit
the perfect nuts. So getting a dead player like
that, with that amount of draft capital, the only way that I
would see this team being like actually live for first is you
get Chandler to come on because he's only a 6% owned player and
you get Michael Wilson to do some stuff.
But if you if you got like a legitimate Michael Wilson
season, then this is a really, really strong team.
I mean. It's probably not to not to mush
you, but this is probably a lock to advance.
Like it looks really strong. So that's a awesome team.
Ohh yeah very very valid point that Addison might ascend enough
with J Jeff out. But yeah, that's a that's a very
fun team. And then like if you wanted to
see for example, I I I gotta run pretty soon.
OK, we'll we'll we'll wrap it up here.
But like, if you wanna see player combos, we we've got all
that stuff over here. You can see their draft rate,
the QBs they were stacked with. Interesting that Justice Hill
was stacked the most with Dak Prescott and CD Lam, but I'll
let you guys fiddle around with this.
All the tournament info, tournament DB, and the free
version of the leaderboard. Just go check those out.
Really fun and cool to to play around with the actual BBM 4
leaderboard, but for everyone that managed to make it for 2
1/4 hours, we appreciate you. Hope you got some good alpha
from the show. And we will see you next week at
the usual time of Tuesday night at 5:00, but eight, 8:00 PM
Eastern. Thank you.
Yeah, Pacific. Yeah.
Bullshit. I I'm on the best coast time but
thanks guys and and we'll see you next week.
See you next week.