Welcome to the Legendary Upside Premium podcast feed.
This episode is a narration of my Legendary running back
article. Very excited to get this one to
you. Have been in the lab, have been
in The Time Machine traveling to the future, seeing how these
seasons actually play out game by game.
Giving you all the details. Let's dive in. 2025 legendary
running back scenarios. 4 years ago I wrote an article on Rotor
World called Don't draft an early round running back without
legendary upside. Being new to the Rotor World
Team, I wanted to impress and so I built a time machine,
travelling to December 2021 to see which running backs became
fantasy legends. I continued to time travel in
2022-2023 and 2024. This year I've travelled to
December 2025 to find our legendary running backs.
What is a legendary season? If you're new to the concept of
legendary upside, here's the deal.
Running backs in the early rounds bust at high rates.
In my original research, I found that running back bust rates in
the first two rounds were actually higher than in rounds 3
through 6. This is despite running backs in
rounds 3 through 6 being such a drag on rosters that the range
of the draft became the running back dead zone.
But the dead zone isn't where bust rates spike, it's where
upside stops. In the early rounds, bust rates
are absolutely brutal, but there are also potentially league
winning players available and if we're going to risk losing our
league with an early round running back selection, the
upside needs to be worth it. With that goal in mind, I
examined 36 running back seasons from 2000 through 2020 in which
a running back hit 23 plus PPR points per game with 12 plus
games played. These seasons generated a
profile to help us predict future legendary seasons.
The target profile looks like this.
A path to four plus receptions per game.
A path to two plus Green Zone or inside the 10 opportunities per
game. Strongly prioritizing versatile
running backs with paths to high volume receiving end goal line
rolls. A path to good, ideally elite
offensive line play. A path to an efficient passing
offense unless the passing offense can run through the
running back. Being skeptical of running backs
who entered the NFL below 210 lbs unless the running back has
a clear lock on goal line duties.
Applying extra scrutiny to running backs 26 and older,
excluding rare prospects. Remain very price sensitive on
rookies. Prioritizing second year players
and being skeptical and assuming significant role increases for
non second year players. Prioritizing running backs who
have flashed the elite talent required to deliver high end
efficiency. Strongly prioritizing running
backs who have flashed elite receiving ability.
This profile sets a very high bar, but that's part of the
point. From 2000 through 2020, there
were just 1.7 Legendary running back seasons per year, and since
writing the article, we've had only four Legendary seasons, one
per year. In 2021, Jonathan Taylor barely
qualified with 23 points per game from weeks one through 17.
In 2022, Austin Eckler averaged 23 points per game from weeks
one through 17 and concluded his Legendary Fantasy campaign with
32.1 points. In 2023, Christian McCaffrey put
up 24.6 PPR points per game and fell less than 7 points short of
his 2nd 400 plus point season. McCaffrey now has four legendary
seasons on his resume. In 2024, Saquon Barkley
technically fell just short of a legendary season with 21.9 PPR
points per game, but because Barkley was a second round pick
for most of the summer, his ADP on underdog averaged to 18.8.
The effect was very much that of a legendary season.
His 48.3% underdog advance rate was significantly higher than
Mccaffrey's 36.2% the year before.
Plus Barkley won the Super Bowl. We're counting it.
Barkley now has two legendary seasons to his name.
Silent killers. Legendary seasons are rare and
high end seasons that are worth searching for.
But it's not just running back injury risk that we're taking on
when doing so. We're also at risk of landing on
silent killers. Last year, Bruce Hall was our
quintessential silent killer. He played in 16 games, but
turned in just 14.9 PPR points per game.
Hall had just a 9.8% advance rate, just 61% of the expected
rate. Bijan Robinson and Austin Eckler
were good examples of this idea. In 2023, Robinson played 17
games but averaged just 14.7 PPR points per game because he went
in the first round of drafts. His good, not great production
hurt rosters more than you might assume.
His 10.3 underdog advance rate was just 62% of the expected
rate. Austin Eckler played fourteen
games in 2023, but his scoring dropped from 22.1 PPR points per
game to 13.5. Like Robinson, he was a first
round pick, leading to an 8.3% advance rate, exactly half the
expected rate. Keep in mind that Nick Chubb
posted a 6.3% advance rate in 2023 despite playing just two
games. Silent Killers are Killers 2025
Legendary Running Back Scenarios Below, I've outlined 2 futures
for the 11 running backs going in the first two rounds of
drafts. Then I discuss how I'm
approaching each running back. First up, Bijan Robinson
Legendary scenario When Michael Pennix takes the field against
the Buccaneers in Week 1, it's immediately clear to the home
crowd and everyone watching at home that he's ready.
Pennix isn't dominant. He's still functionally a
rookie. There are growing pains, but
Pennix keeps the offense moving, make smart decisions, and keeps
things competitive. This is absolutely huge for
Bijan Robinson, who finally has stability at the quarterback
position for a full season. Even better, although Pennix is
good enough to keep drives alive, he's not yet to the point
where the Falcons are comfortable building the offense
around a pass first approach. Instead, they use Robinson as
the engine of the offense. Granted, there are a few bumps
in the road. The Falcons get boat race by the
Commanders in Week 3, losing 36 to 9 at home.
But Robinson still manages a non disastrous 12.4 PPR points,
catching 4 balls for 39 yards and rushing for 45 more.
Better yet, it's his lowest point total of the entire
season. Robinson is a workhorse for the
Falcons, carrying the ball 298 times and adding 77 receptions.
It's a season that draws comparisons to peak Le'veon Bell
and Matt Forte. With 5.2 yards per carry,
Robinson isn't the most efficient rusher in the league.
He's not even in the elite tier. His receiving efficiency is the
same, a strong but firmly sub elite 1.37 yards per outrun.
But Robinson shows a rare ability to combine strong
rushing and receiving efficiency and maintain both on elite
volume. Oh, and Robinson is a force of
nature at the goal line. He totals 14 touchdowns on 41
Green Zone opportunities. When the Falcons are in close,
Robinson is their first thought, and usually their second.
Robinson really begins to hit his stride when the Falcons
travel to New York in Week 13, taking on a Jets team that is
actually frisky, if inconsistent.
The Falcons lean on Robinson in a back and forth game.
Pennex 2 has begun to see getting Robinson going is
essential to his success and feeds the superstar running
back. With 10 targets, Robinson goes 8
for 72 and one through the air, signaling a stronger receiving
roll down the stretch. The Falcons also begin opening
up the offense a bit more as the season progresses.
This actually creates fewer rushing attempts per game for
Robinson, but his receiving versatility makes his slightly
altered role in the offense even more valuable for fantasy.
By the time the Falcons host the Rams in Week 17, Robinson's
status is a true 3 down back has already been cemented, but he
silences any remaining doubt. With A7 for 65 and 1 receiving
line on top of a 19 for 118 and two rushing line.
He turns in a career high 37.3 PPR points successfully
concluding his legendary third year.
All in all, Robinson totals 21171 yards and 19 touchdowns on
298 attempts and 77 receptions. His 24 PPR points per game
easily pay off his one O 2 ADP. In retrospect, no one can really
articulate why Robinson wasn't the clear cut one O 1 silent
killer scenario during the Falcons Week 4 By Raheem Morris
and Zach Robinson have a long meeting putting their heads
together on how to turn around a season that is already on the
verge underdogs. In all four of their opening
games, the Falcons are one in three.
They eked out a win in Carolina, but lost in Minnesota and
dropped home games to the Buccaneers and Commanders.
On tap next the Bills and 49ers. The meeting goes well enough,
but the next two weeks do not. Both the Bills and 49ers carved
through the weak Atlanta defense, forcing Michael Pennex
to drop back frequently in obvious passing situations.
Bijan Robinson is getting fed. At least the Falcons are
determined not to expose Pennex to opposing pass rushes in
negative script. They're willing to sacrifice win
percentage for the long term plan.
Robinson averages 18 carries per game, setting a new career high
with 306 carries. But Robinson's efficiency is a
bummer. The Falcons are extremely
predictable. They're going to run the ball
for as long as they can get away with it, with a passing game
very much a secondary option. Bizarrely, they don't
incorporate fake runs, turning in the lowest play action rate
in the league for the second straight year.
What you see is what you get with the Falcons.
Defensive coordinators lick their chops when they see the
Falcons on the schedule, running behind a middling offensive line
and into the teeth of the defense.
Robinson drops from his career mark of 4.7 yards per carry to
just 4.2. In Week 8, the Falcons notched
their second win of the season at home against Miami.
This kicks off A7 game win streak with wins over the
Dolphins, Patriots, Colts, Panthers, Saints, Jets, and
Seahawks. The now eight and five Falcons
are one of the hottest teams in football and Bijan Robinson is
starting to come alive. He's now up to 270 touches for
the season with 12129 yards from scrimmage and 9 total touchdowns
through 13 games, averaging 16.6 PPR points per game.
He's turned around a season that looked potentially disastrous in
the early weeks. Robinson's playoff bound fantasy
managers are cautiously optimistic, but the weekly
preview Industrial complex plants its flag.
The Falcons are schedule merchants, traveling to Tampa
Bay in Week 15. They faced their first real test
since their blowout loss to the 49ers in Week 7.
The match up Bros get it right this time.
Playing from behind for most of the game, the Falcons revert to
their early season form. Robinson is held to 72 scoreless
yards on 16 touches. Things don't get much better in
Week 16. The Falcons lose a close game to
the Cardinals, with Robinson seeing 22 touches and turning in
98 yards. He's held out of the end zone
yet again in Week 17. The Rams take control of the
game right away, limiting Robinson to 16 carries for 67
yards. Fortunately, he adds 3
receptions for 19 yards, but for the third straight week fails to
score. With PPR scores of nine point
110.8 and 11.6 in weeks 15 through 17, Robinson is a
fantasy playoff albatross, and with 14.9 PPR points on the
season, his RB180P looks wildly optimistic in retrospect.
James Conner, 55 picks cheaper in summer drafts, easily
outscores him. Robinson falls to the late
second round of the Big Board, which launches promptly at kick
off of Week 18 on New Year's Day.
This price quickly corrects as drafters regain confidence in
Robinson's talent. It also helps that new head
coach John Morton talks up Robinson as his new Jameer Gibbs
and promises to implement the same play action attack that
brought Detroit its first Super Bowl.
How to play it in the Futures above, Robinson actually sees
more rushing attempts in his silent killer scenario.
Even if he disappoints this year, he's still very likely to
see an awesome workload. But I have three big questions
with Robinson. One, what is his receiving role
look like? 2, Can he deliver more explosive
place? Three, Can the offense support
an elite touchdown season on Question 1?
Robinson hasn't been all that impressive as a receiver in the
NFL. As a rookie, he turned in 1.16
yards per outrun among running backs with 125 plus carries.
That was running back 17. In 2024, he was slightly worse
with 1.11 yards per outrun. Again, running back 17 in ESP NS
receiver rating. He finished running back 36 as a
rookie, but improved to running back seven last year.
Over the last two years combined, he ranks running back
18, so although I think Robinson isn't a bad receiver, it's hard
to see him taking a huge step in receiving production this year
unless the Falcons pass the ball significantly more when Question
2. Robinson was an impressive
breakaway runner in college, but his superpower was tackle
breaking. Since entering the NFL, he has a
20% breakaway percentage, which is pretty weak.
He ranked running back 20 as a rookie with a 25% breakaway
rate, but then fell to running back 30 of 36 qualifying running
backs last year with a 17% mark. This is where running behind an
elite line or being attached to an elite passing game would
really help. I think Robinson could be more
explosive in the right environment.
I'm not sure this is that environment one.
Question 3. Robinson turned in 15 total
touchdowns last year, but he'll likely need closer to 20 to
deliver a legendary season. This looks like a pretty big
lift unless Michael Pennix is immediately an above average
starter in Best Ball. I've been breaking ties against
Robinson at a decent rate, but I'm still at 5% so far. 8% is
even with the field and I'm comfortable with that.
That's the nice thing about a portfolio based game like Best
Ball. You never have to come out and
say you're fading the RB 1. You just say you're underweight,
but in redraft, we need to make decisions.
If you're sitting at one O 2, are you taking Robinson or are
you not? There's no hedging.
And when it comes right down to it, Robinson is not my RV one
this year. Not only that, I would also take
both Jamar Chase and CD Lamb ahead of them.
In tight end premium, I'd take Brock Bowers ahead of them.
And I put my money where my mouth is on that to a level that
is probably inadvisable. If Robinson were to fall to 1:05
in APPR league, I would take him there.
I'm not completely out, but regrettably I am going to be
underweight. Sorry.
Fading Robinson this year. Manage league recommendation.
Fade Jameer Gibbs legendary scenario.
On November 2nd, the Lions host the Minnesota Vikings at Ford
Field. It's the first of two meetings
between the division rivals. The Lions are unfortunate not to
have faced the Vikings earlier in the year when JJ McCarthy had
some genuine growing pains. But the first year starter has
now emerged as a solid quarterback, clicking with an
elite receiving core and supported by a functional run
game. The good news is that the Lions
have had two weeks to prepare for Brian Flores blitz packages
and are fresh off their Week 8 by Jameer Gibbs is essential to
this plan as a hot read outlet screen game weapon, an explosive
rushing threat. To this point in the season,
Gibbs has been very impressive. He's a bigger piece of the
average game plan than a 2024 and a consistent receiving
threat, but he's yet to have a game that really puts a stamp on
the 2025 season as being about Jameer Gibbs.
In the first week of the back half of the season, it becomes
very clear who the right answer was.
In summer drafts, Gibbs rushes 19 times for 134 yards and two
touchdowns, scoring once from 2 yards in and once from 30 yards
out. He adds A7 for 57 and 1
receiving line on 9 targets. The Lions win a 30 to 24
shootout, leaving the Vikings and Gibbs fantasy managers eager
for a rematch. In the intervening weeks,
Gibbs's fantasy production shifts from being a strong
showing for a top pick to a truly rare campaign.
Even by league winning standards, the Lions offensive
line isn't quite as strong as it was in 2024, but it's still
easily a top 10 unit, and Gibbs isn't a chunk yardage thumper.
When he gets the blocking he needs, he makes defenses pay,
like in 2024 when he posted 25 runs of 15 plus yards, tying
with Derek Henry and Saquon Barkley.
Despite seeing 75 fewer carries than Henry and 95 fewer than
Barkley. Gibbs is extremely explosive.
He rips off 27 breakaway runs, scoring eight of his 21 total
touchdowns from outside the Green Zone.
Gibbs is truly a scoring threat any time he touches the ball.
This includes Gibbs being a threat at the goal line.
The Lions don't feature Gibbs in short yardage.
Montgomery retains a significant role there, but Gibbs is
reliable as well as explosive, and he splits goal line work on
an extremely proficient offense. He punches in 11 rushing
touchdowns from within the 10. Gibbs reliability as a runner
translates directly to more receiving opportunities.
John Morton tweaks the Lions offense, but he doesn't change
the emphasis on play action. Like in 2024, the Lions lead the
NFL in play action rate, utilizing it on over a third of
their passes. Gibbs sees a much bigger chunk
of these plays than in 2024, displacing Montgomery, who led
the NFL in 2024 with 25 play action receptions.
Gibbs's ability to deliver on power run concepts allows the
Lions to keep him on the field for fake versions of those
plays. He scores 2 touchdowns on goal
line play action passes and finishes RB-1 with 28 play
action receptions, the most by running back since Austin Eckler
also had 28 in 2022. Gibbs's receiving production is
also boosted by more overall drop back volume under Morton.
The Lions retain their philosophical DNA, but they
operate more like the 2023 Lions who had 646 drop backs than the
2024 Lions who are only at 600. With Detroit dropping back 640
times, Gibbs is able to rack up 96 targets for an 82 for 739 and
4 receiving line. He's also extremely efficient in
the receiving game with 1.78 yards per outrun.
It's only a slight improvement on 2024's 1.69 mark, but still
strong enough for RB-1 in 2025. Gibbs ends the season with 25.5
PPR points per game, the most by running back since Christian
McCaffrey had 29.3 in 2019. He joins McCaffrey, Alvin
Kamara, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Le'veon Bell and Jamal
Charles is the only back since 2010 to average 25 plus PPR
points per game. And so, heading into the Lions
Week 17 rematch with the Vikings, Gibbs is already seen
as the story of the 2025 season and the obvious one O 1 in 2026.
But that's not enough. Gibbs also steals Christmas.
The DFS discourse around the three-game Christmas slate is
dominated by helpful reminders that Gibbs will be playing in a
Dome. I think I'm going to eat the
chalk here and use a contrarian stack to get different.
So tough to see him failing in the Dome.
And hey, sometimes the touts get it right because the roof
overhead doesn't stop Gibbs from icing the Vikings playoff hopes.
With 12 minutes left in the second quarter, he runs off
tackle to the right side, hitting 22 miles an hour in the
blink of an eye. The 57 yard touchdown puts the
Lions up by 10. Surprisingly, Gibbs doesn't
dominate as a receiver. He records 5 receptions, in line
with his 4.8 per game average, but totals just 25 scoreless
yards. But in position to clinch their
third straight NFC North title, the Lions don't mess around on
the ground. Gibbs is the feature back for
this one. He ties his career high with 26
rushing attempts for 195 yards and three touchdowns.
His fantasy managers are gifted 45 PPR points.
Somehow not a career high to kick off Championship week.
Merry Christmas. Silent killer scenario.
The Lions roll into Green Bay in Week 1 and hand the Packers a 20
to 17 loss. John Morton hands the fantasy
community a fell for it Again award with a heavy dose of David
Montgomery in positive script. Do Montgomery and Gibbs play in
the backfield together as Morton teased in the spring?
Not once. It now starts to feel ominous
that Morton has been comparing Gibbs to Saints era Reggie Bush,
who peaked at just 154 attempts. Gibbs easily bests that, but
with 238 attempts he still posts 12 fewer than in 2024.
Morton's backfield deployment is frustrating, but that's the
least of it. Ben Johnson took a lot of the
Lions magic with him to Chicago, with Detroit looking more
vanilla and much less efficient under Morton.
In fairness to Morton, part of the issue lies with the Lions
offensive line, which takes a big step back from 2024.
It's not bad, but far from a difference making unit.
Gibbs is able to hit 1095 yards in 17 games, but is far less
explosive, having to deal with defenders on him much more
quickly than he'd become accustomed to.
He averages just 4.6 yards per carry, down from a 5.5 career
mark. Morton's offseason pressors
weren't entirely misleading. He was dead serious about
getting Jameson Williams and Sam Laporta more involved.
Isaac Tesla also has a surprisingly high target share
down the stretch. Morton is intent on attacking
more downfield, which eats into Gibbs's underneath targets.
After a back-to-back seasons of 52 receptions, he falls to 44.
Gibbs's fantasy managers watch in disbelief as he's outscored
by Jordan Mason in Week 17. Mason, now operating as the
Vikings starter, rushes 23 times for 113 yards in a score with A2
for 12 receiving line for 20.5 PPR points.
Gibbs also gets in the end zone for his 13th total touchdown on
the season, but sees just 12 carries for 55 yards, going 3
for 29 and one as a receiver. His 17.4 PPR points are nice to
have, but not exactly a hammer at an early first round price
tag. For the season, Gibbs averages
just 15.1 PPR points per game, matching James Cook.
How to play it? Hypothetically, let's say you
were the Lions passing game coordinator for the last two
seasons. You are as much an expert on the
Lions passing game as anyone, but it's not your offense.
You don't create the game plans. You don't call the place.
At least you didn't. But in 2025, you new Lions
offense coordinator John Morton, are running the show.
If you, John, now have the chance to run the Lions offense,
what tweaks would you make? I for one would use Jameer Gibbs
more. Judging from his quotes this
offseason, John seems to be on the same page.
In May, he compared Gibbs to Reggie Bush, praising his
explosiveness and his floated ideas for getting Gibbs on the
field more often. It's hard not to feel like John
Morton is on the same page as the fantasy community here, and
I have the One of Us GIF from Wolf of Wall Street to
communicate that. What's crazy to me about the
Gibbs discourse is that we kind of act like he didn't just
average 21.4 PPR points Last year.
Saquon Barkley averaged 21.9. This dude was damn close to
Barkley last season despite splitting work.
I don't know for sure if Gibbs is actually going to see
significantly more work with Montgomery in the lineup, but I
know that if he does, we don't need to stop dreaming At 23
points per game, we can dream on 2425 26 points per game.
The dude is a superstar. He's on a very efficient
offense, runs behind a good offensive line, is already
producing very close to a legendary level, and everyone
agrees has significant room to the upside in terms of his
workload. The main disagreement is whether
he can access that upside with Montgomery healthy or if he's
fantasy's most expensive contingent running back.
Put Me Down is someone who thinks Montgomery can turn in
the healthiest season of his entire freaking life and still
see his workload curtailed significantly.
Montgomery is a good back, but he's not Gibbs, and some of
Montgomery's 2024 role, particularly his play action
targets, are obvious opportunities to generate
explosive plays. With this one simple trick, Put
Gibbs on the field. After the rushing performance
that Gibbs turned into close last season, there is simply no
reason to continue using Montgomery at the same rate in
traditional rushing situations. The only reason to do that would
be stubbornness, but Morton doesn't have to double down to
protect his ego here. Not playing Gibbs enough can be
Ben Johnson's dumb idea. Morton gets to unleash the
superstar and take credit for the radical strategy of playing
his best running back. It's a no brainer and from
everything I've gathered, Morton seems to have a brain in best
ball. I've been mixing up my bets at
the top of drafts, but I've made a deal with myself.
I am not going to end up underweight on Jamir Gibbs in
redraft. He's a clear cut target.
We took him at the One O 3 in our ADP chasing main event.
Manage league recommendation priority target Saquon Barkley.
Legendary scenario. The Eagles kick off the NFL
season with a very on brand performance against the Cowboys
defense that isn't much better against the run than it was in
2024. Saquon Barkley rushes 18 times
for 125 yards, adding one reception for 9 yards.
It's an impressive real life performance, but not a great
fantasy outing. Will Shipley mixes in for some
low value runs, keeping Barkley fresh.
He also steals 2 receptions. More importantly, all the
touchdowns flow through Jalen Hurts, who hits Dallas Goddard
for a screen pass touchdown, A.J.
Brown for a 35 yard bomb, and brotherly shoves for two more
scores. The following week, the Eagles
travel to Kansas City for the Super Bowl rematch.
Saquon finds a defensive game plan waiting for him that can
best be described as anyone but Barkley.
The Chiefs are also clicking on offense, with Rashi Rice still
awaiting his hearing and Xavier Worthy having fully evolved.
The Chiefs get their Week 2 revenge, winning 27 to 24 on a
last second field goal. Barkley is mostly stymied,
rushing 21 times for 90 scoreless yards with two
receptions for 11 yards. Bleary eyed from blue light
spreadsheet virgins can't believe their eyes.
Barkley's two down profile is finally the limiting factor.
Was always destined to be. 2024 was just the exception that
proves the rule never wrong. Just early pre week 3V laps turn
to ashes in streamers mouths as Barkley gouges the Rams
vulnerable run defense for 200 rushing yards.
It's 30 less than he averaged against them in 2024, but still
pretty good. He also breaks his touchdown
drought running for a 37 yard touchdown in the first quarter
and closes out of victory with a 48 yard fourth quarter clincher.
Barkley turns in just a six yard catch in the passing game, but
for some reason that's not the narrative headed into Week 4.
Receiving driven concerns look even sillier as the season
progresses. His new offensive coordinator,
Kevin Pitullo, proves to be significantly more aggressive
than Kellen Moore. Under Pitullo, the Eagles
dropped back 590 times, roughly in between where they were in
2023 at 653 and 2024 when they had just 540.
The added drop backs helped Barkley total 46 receptions for
399 yards and three touchdowns through the air, a meaningful
improvement on 2024's receiving line of 33 for 278 and 2.
Barkley isn't super consistent as a target earner, but he hits
5 plus targets in six games. It's a reminder that as long as
the Eagles pass the ball, a superstar running back who
averaged 7.6 targets per game as a rookie isn't just A2 down bet.
Barkley peaks with 7 targets at the perfect time, A Week 17
shootout with the Bills. Saquon goes 6 for 53 and 1 as a
receiver. Barkley also runs 29 times for
191 yards, and you're never going to believe this, but it's
true. Punches in a goal line
touchdown. His 42.4 PPR points cement one
of the best two year runs in fantasy history.
It takes him 17 games instead of 16 this time, but Berkeley turns
in another 2000 yard rushing campaign with 2006 yards.
He also totals 2412 yards and 20 touchdowns from scrimmage in
hitting 23.9 PPR points per game.
He bests his outstanding 2024 season when he had 21.9 points
and falls just shy of his rookie year peak at 24.
Somehow, not the 101. After a dominant 2024 season,
Barkley makes the Faders pay again.
Silent killer scenario. Don't tell the Philadelphia
Eagles that they are the defending Super Bowl champs.
This is a new season. Everyone is 0 and 0.
Nothing can be taken for granted.
Everything must be earned. But as much as they publicly say
otherwise, the Eagles coaching staff understands the lofty
expectations everyone has for this team.
And those expectations are far less likely to be met without a
healthy playoff run from Saquon Barkley.
Ahead of Week 1, Nick Siriani and Kevin Petullo review an
offensive game plan that is both built around the run, but also
with an understanding that they have a long season ahead of
them. They need a big season from
Saquon, but don't need him to average over 22 touches per game
again, or at least not every week.
In their home opener against the Cowboys, the Eagles can't help
themselves. Barkley carries the ball 21
times, pacing for more than the 345 carries he handled in 2024.
Behind the Eagles elite offensive line.
He rushes for 115 yards and a touchdown, adding one catch for
9 yards. But as the season wears on, the
Eagles find ways to pick their spots with Barkley in two
blowout wins over the Giants in week six and eight.
They play Will Shipley for much of the second-half, and Shipley
is impressive enough that following their Week 9 by, he
begins to mix in more. Originally just a means to keep
Barkley fresh, Shipley begins to flash play making skills of his
own, particularly as a receiver. With Shipley eating into an
already meager receiving workload, Barkley falls from
averaging 2.1 receptions per game in 2024 to just 1.6.
He finishes with just a 27 for 216 and 1 receiving line on the
season. Barkley's lack of receptions
wouldn't be an issue if he was still housing touchdowns from
distance on a regular basis, but after 2024 regular season in
which he scored 11 touchdowns from 10 plus yards out, Barkley
manages just four such scores in 2025.
By normal running back standards, he still runs pretty
hot here, just not as hot as the sun.
Barkley's ability to get in the end zone now rest far more on
his goal line opportunities, but the Eagles aren't quite as
dominant as they were in 2024, and the tush push is alive and
well. His opportunities inside the 10
actually fall slightly from 2024.
Barkley scores 6 Green Zone touchdowns, totaling 10
touchdowns on the season. Thankfully, Berkeley has one of
his best games of the season in Week 16 as the Eagles fight for
a division title. He turns 26 attempts into 156
yards and a touchdown, adding a three reception for 30 yard
receiving line for 27.6 PPR points.
But the following week, the Eagles shift toward the passing
game against the Bills, which by this point means using Will
Shipley in a Justice Hill style role.
Barkley is efficient on his carries but only sees 17 of
them. He runs for 110 scoreless yards
and fails to record a reception. The Eagles plan to keep Barkley
fresh for the playoffs is only partially successful.
He still totals 306 attempts in 2025, more than Bijan Robinson
who had 304 and Josh Jacobs who had 301 saw in 17 games in 2024.
But the Eagles still shave off 45 touches from Barclays 2024
workload while also playing him for one more game.
After single handedly winning leagues in 2024, Barkley barely
outscores Chuba Hubbard in 2025, averaging 14.8 PPR points per
game. How to play it?
Saquon Barkley opened the summer as the one O 2 in best ball
leagues. He's since fallen a bit and in
the main event he's down to one O 6 behind Jamar Chase, Bijan
Robinson, CD Lamb and Brock Bowers.
It's tight end premium. People forget at this new price
it's much harder to make the case against him.
Let me try though. Berkeley was crazy reliant on
big plays last year. I love efficient, also known as
good players, but at a certain point negative regression
becomes a concern. Barkley scored 18 rushing
touchdowns last season, including the playoffs.
So far so good. But twelve of those touchdowns,
2/3 were from 10 plus yards out. 10 of 18 were from 20 plus yards
out, including the playoffs. How many rushing touchdowns do
you think Saquon Barkley scored from 60 plus yards out last
year? Did you say 7?
Because it was 7. Normally we might say something
like, well, yeah, OK, but So what?
Because if he gets tackled on the one a couple more times,
he's still going to punch in that touchdown.
Except that's not really true here, is it?
Jalen Hurts rushed for 19 rushing touchdowns. 14 were
within 5 yards of the goal line. 17 were within 10 yards.
The tush push is a real problem for Barclays touchdown
production going forward. Unless he continues to play out
of his freaking mind. But honestly, it's hard not to
feel like that is what is going to happen.
The biggest thing I got wrong about Barclay last year is that
I doubted his talent. I knew that he had been elite,
but at 27 years old, was he really elite anymore?
Yeah, buddy, he's elite. Barclay has now thoroughly
proven that he remains in his prime.
Ended behind literally the best offensive line in the league.
He's also attached to a passing game that's not only efficient
but explosive. It's a passing game perfectly
suited to punish defenses for paying too much attention to
Barkley. The Eagles put teams in a no win
situation. Honestly I kind of wish Barkley
was still going one O 2. Then I could be a real hard O
about this and say he's a great player but sadly just too
expensive. We simply must fade the guy who
ate our lunch last year. And in bestball, that is really
how I was playing it to an extent.
I'm currently at 5% Barclay because I've been prioritizing
the 2 running backs and Lamb ahead of them.
But once Chase, Robinson, Lamb and Gibbs are off the board,
we're talking about players with at least a little bit of
concern. I do slightly prefer Justin
Jefferson. Always nice to draft the best
wide receiver in football, but Jefferson is playing with a
first time starter quarterback and has been dealing with
hamstring injury. I think it'll all work out, but
he's not bulletproof this year. And then the next running back
off the board after Barkley literally missed almost all of
last year with multiple leg injuries.
But we can't take the defending rushing champ because he scores
from too far away. There's an old saying in
Tennessee, I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee that says,
fool me once, shame on shame on you.
Fool me. You can't get fooled again.
Manage league recommendation. Capitulate at 1:05 or later.
Christian McCaffrey Legendary scenario After years of
promising to ease back on Christian Mccaffrey's workload,
Kyle Shanahan was forced to operate entirely without
McCaffrey for most of 2024. It was a lost season for the
49ers and a lesson that Shanahan took to heart.
The lesson, of course, is that McCaffrey is too critical to
risk tasking with huge workloads.
The 49ers trade for Brian Robinson wasn't just a depth
move. Shanahan has finally gotten
serious about reducing Mccaffrey's workload and keeping
him fresh. Just kidding.
Shanahan pretends to have changed his ways for a couple of
weeks, but his heart isn't in it.
Because Shanahan's actual take away from 2024 is that he is a
lot happier when Christian McCaffrey is on the field.
Wondering if he'll even be alive by the time a McCaffrey injury
occurs, Shanahan decides to live for the moment.
McCaffrey finishes with 21.1 touches per game, virtually
identical to 2023 when he had 21.2 as Field Goal Rd.
favorites. In Week 1, the 49ers beat the
Seahawks 24 to 16 and then as Big Rd. favorites dominate in
New Orleans 34 to 13. McCaffrey totals 4 touchdowns on
the road trip. Following this start, the 49ers
are a favorite in every single game in the 2025 season.
They are ultimately favored by 6 plus in half of their regular
season games. This creates a ton of positive
game script for McCaffrey, who totals 21 touchdowns for the
second time in three seasons, rushing for 15 and putting up
six more through the air. But Mccaffrey's role does shift
slightly in 2025 compared to 2023.
With Debo Samuel no longer available as a weapon out of the
backfield and Brennan Nyuk taking a while to ramp back up,
Shanahan is keen to utilize McCaffrey as a receiver even
more than two years ago. McCaffrey is also helped by a
career year from Brock Purdy. Purdy marries 2023's efficiency
with 2024's playmaking ability and emerges as a quarterback
that deserves to be featured even in positive game script.
As a result, the 49ers drop back 580 * 26 more than in 2023,
though still 45 fewer than in 2024.
McCaffrey is more of a receiving priority on a team with more
drop backs than in 2023, which means more targets for the
superstar running back. For the fifth time in his
career, McCaffrey sees 100 plus targets.
He finishes with an 87 reception for 714 yards, 6 touchdown
receiving line on 102 targets. In week 17, he caps a glorious
return to form with a dominant outing in front of the home
crowd, turning in an 18 carry 111 yard, 3 touchdown rushing
line with six for 50 through the air as McCaffrey punches in his
third touchdown of the day on a beautifully executed inside zone
run. Ben Johnson, literally down 23,
looks directly at DeAndre Swift. You can see the pain in his eyes
from space. The Bears then hand off 3 times
to Kyle Minungai before punting with 24.7 PPR points per game.
McCaffrey sets a new 49ers career high and turns in his
fifth legendary season. Ironically, despite a league
winning season driven by elite receiving production,
Mccaffrey's 1.54 yards per outrun is the second lowest of
his career. This becomes a talking point in
the 2026 offseason as hand wringing weenies wonder aloud if
the greatest fantasy running back of all time is too risky
for the 101. His 2025 fantasy managers have
no such doubts. McCaffrey is a legend.
Silent killer scenario. Kyle Shanahan hasn't changed.
If you give him a superstar running back, he's going to play
the hell out of him. The problem is, Christian
McCaffrey has changed. McCaffrey remains a remarkably
effective receiver out of the backfield, but as a runner he's
clearly lost a step after missing most of 2024 to injury.
Averaging just 4.1 yards per carry through the 1st 3 weeks,
McCaffrey is expected to find his footing in week four against
Jacksonville. But on a healthy workload of 18
carries, he manages just 63 scoreless yards.
He saved his fantasy day with three receptions for 25 yards
and a touchdown. As the season progresses,
McCaffrey begins to pop up on the injury report with limited
practices. It's nothing big, just the wear
and tear of the season, but Shanahan still suffers.
Flashbacks to 2024. Brian Robinson begins to mix in
more to keep McCaffrey fresh. Robinson isn't any more
explosive than McCaffrey, but he helps ensure that Mccaffrey's
efficiency doesn't fall off further.
Isaac Grendo also sees the occasional series providing a
little juice to the running game.
As a receiver, McCaffrey is still solidly efficient.
He's not the otherworldly receiving back he once was, but
he still turns in a respectable 1.23 yards per outrun, ranking
RB 12. But the 49ers just don't need to
pass that much in 2025. Their absurdly easy schedule
sees them favored by double digits against the Saints,
Falcons, Panthers, Browns and Titans.
They are an underdog just once all season and it just plus one
on the road in Tampa Bay. McCaffrey takes advantage of his
receiving opportunities when he gets them, but he turns in a sub
elite 58 for 481 and 2 receiving line.
The 49ers week 17 game against the Bears sums up Mccaffrey's
disappointing season. Caleb Williams, still searching
for his first game with a 70% plus completion percentage,
can't keep the Bears on pace with the 49ers and Shanahan is
able to salt away the game without burning out McCaffrey
who is very much being saved for the playoffs by this point.
McCaffrey rushes 12 times for 50 yards with three receptions for
21 yards and 0 touchdowns. He manages 15.6 PPR points per
game for the full season, matching Trayvion Henderson.
But unlike Henderson, who opens 2026 drafts as a late 1st
rounder, McCaffrey is no longer a first round fantasy pick.
The best ball slappies can't be bothered with him until round
six, although he eventually moves into the 4th by August.
How to play it For most of the offseason, I've been thinking
about McCaffrey as a fairly binary bet.
He's either dust washed, a landmine, a bust, or he's
Christian McCaffrey, the greatest PPR back we've ever
known. But reality is never that
simple. There's definitely some risk
that McCaffrey is still pretty damn good, but just not to the
level he was in 2023, where the 49ers were justified and never
taking him off the field. With even a slight step back,
that attitude could change. McCaffrey could go from snap
dominant to a normal starter and at his cost, from a legend to a
silent killer. But even as I see that risk more
clearly, I'm happy to take it on.
Even at 29 years old, McCaffrey checks a ton of boxes in the
legendary running back profile. As disappointing as he was as a
runner last year, he still saw 15 receptions in 3 1/2 games.
He averaged the reception every 3.8 snaps, an 86 reception pace
using his 2023 regular season snap count.
It's a small sample and not something to take a ton from,
but I think it's fair to say that Mccaffrey's role in the
offense would have remained very receiving focused had he been
healthy enough to play last year.
McCaffrey also turned in a 1.60 yards per outrun last year.
Small sample, but again, nothing concerning on the receiving
front. So the big questions are one,
can McCaffrey recapture his rushing form after averaging
just 4.0 yards per carry last year?
And two, can the 49ers support another 20 plus touchdown season
like we saw in 2023? Let's take the second question
first. Yes, the 49ers have by far the
easiest schedule in the league, one of the most efficient
passing offenses in the league, and no longer have Debo Samuel
as a hybrid weapon. Their offensive line is
middling, and it's possible the offense struggles a bit with
Brandon Iuke out, but man, this is still a strong set up for
McCaffrey to be the clear cut Green Zone weapon on an offense
that should put up a lot of points.
Now to question 1, and I'm not sure I care anymore.
We're talking about a running back who has a clear path to
four plus receptions per game, who can easily hit 2 plus Green
Zone touches per game, and who will have a strong, if not elite
rushing workload when healthy. We're talking about a running
back, and I don't say this lightly, who can scam his way to
a legendary season. And honestly, I don't think
that's the world we're in. Reports out of camp have been
glowing, and if McCaffrey is really back, he remains the best
bet for a legendary campaign of any running back in the NFL.
Managed league recommendation target Ashton Genti.
Legendary scenario, the Raiders open up the 2025 season with
just a 6.5 Vegas win total, facing the Patriots in Week 1.
Arguably the worst team in the league in 2024.
The Raiders are a three-point Rd. underdog, but Pete Carroll
has his team fired up to compete, providing color
commentary for the Giants and Commanders.
Tom Brady must have been too distracted by updates on his
Raiders upset win over his old team to say a single interesting
thing on air. At least that's what the Fox
execs tell themselves. The Raiders then harassed Justin
Herbert in a low scoring home loss to the Chargers.
Genti is held to 75 total yards, but saves his day with a rushing
touchdown. However, in Week 3, the Raiders
are shockingly frisky against Washington, and it's during this
close loss that Ashton Genti's fantasy managers start to
realize what they have. Like in 2024, the Commanders are
susceptible to the run game and the Raiders lean on Genti, who
has already established himself as the clear lead rusher.
The rookie rushes 22 times for 132 yards and two touchdowns,
punching in a three yard score and housing another from 31
yards out. But most promisingly, as the
Raiders trail in the second-half, Genti becomes
heavily involved as a receiver. It's the first time the Raiders
have shown off his receiving skills in major way.
He sees 7 targets totaling 6 receptions for 40 yards.
The Raiders then RIP off 3 consecutive wins against the
Bears, Colts and Titans by beating Tennessee.
The Raiders make good on Bill Simmons declaration the previous
week. They are 2020 fives.
Good, bad team. At this point, Genti is starting
to emerge as a dominant rushing force.
He's averaging 5.4 yards per carry, combining unbelievable
contact balance and instant acceleration.
He already has three rushing touchdowns from outside the 10
yard line while also operating as the Raiders clear cut goal
line back. Still, outside of his breakout
game against the Commanders, Gente's receiving production
hasn't been great. He's involved, it's just not
driving his production coming out of the Raiders Week 8 by
that changes against the Jaguars, Broncos and Cowboys,
Gente averages 7 targets for six receptions and 49 yards against
Jacksonville. He also gets in the end zone.
Gente can still transform into a rushing sledgehammer when
needed. In Week 12, he delights the home
crowd by putting up 204 rushing yards against the hapless
Browns, including a 43 yard scamper for a touchdown.
Gente keeps fans in the seats for as long as humanly possible,
but by the mid fourth quarter, Dylan Gabriel has emptied the
stance. There are bumps in the road.
The Week 14 rematch against Denver does not go well with
Gente totaling just 9.3 PPR points.
Fantasy managers are understandably nervous about his
next match up against the Eagles.
With the fantasy playoffs kicking off.
Genti doesn't crush against Philadelphia, but he does get
back on track with 112 rushing yards and a score, plus A4 for
29 receiving line. But the real money is made in
Week 17 back in Las Vegas after a 2 game road trip, Genti
reminds the Giants that the house always wins.
He runs for 137 yards, including a 27 yard touchdown.
It's his sixth rushing touchdown of the year from 10 plus yards
out. Genti also sees a season high 9
targets, posting 8 receptions for 60 yards, including a 16
yard touchdown reception, his fourth receiving touchdown of
the year. Genti's 39.7 PPR points are a
fitting end to the best rookie running back season since Saquon
Barkley. In total, Genti rushes 272 times
for 1496 yards and 17 touchdowns.
It's a wildly impressing rushing debut, but what makes his season
legendary is that, like he was as a sophomore Boise State, he's
also a weapon out of the backfield.
He finishes running back five with 61 receptions, turning in
540 yards and four touchdowns with 1.30 yards per outrun.
Genti isn't even that efficient. His value is more in being a
trusted check down when Bowers is double covered and when the
Raiders outside wide receivers can't get open quickly, which
happens a lot. Gentie's potential to take
another step forward as a receiver drives 2026 hype to
outrageous levels. Superflex dynasty managers begin
offering obscene packages. Joe Burrow in a 2026 first isn't
unheard of for the superstar running back.
Auction redraft leaguers brag about only spending $81.00 of a
$200 budget for the second year Phenom.
When Genti falls past one O 1 and best Ball Mania 7 underdog
throws out the draft. It's a heady time, and sure, we
may have gotten out over our skis heading into 2026, but the
hype is genuinely hard to resist.
You'll see once you get here. Silent killer scenario.
Ashton Genti's debut against the Patriots is extremely efficient.
He averages 7.2 yards per carry, rips off a 22 yard touchdown run
in the second quarter, and averages 7.5 yards per target.
Unfortunately, Gente only sees 12 carries and two targets.
Still, 101 total yards and a touchdown isn't bad for an NFL
debut. Gente's fantasy managers bank
his 18.1 PPR points and eagerly await even better results.
It's a long wait. Gente's 12 carries in Week 1
aren't a rookie being eased in, it's his 2025 season average.
Genti handles just 204 carries in 2025, only 10 less than Bijan
Robinson in his seventeen game rookie season, but still far
below what fantasy managers had in mind.
Part of the problem is that the Raiders just aren't very good.
Frequently in negative game script, they're rarely in
position to establish Genti as a downhill runner.
As a receiver, the Raiders slow play, the rookie turning to
Dylan Lauby in pure passing situations.
The take cast gain is our loss. Genti is limited to 38
receptions for 281 yards and one touchdown with just 0.93 yards
per outrun. Genti is more efficient as a
runner where despite playing behind a weak offensive line, he
averages 4.9 yards per carry. At the end of the season, the
Raiders finally feed him, giving him 20 carries, which he turns
into 92 yards. But this is too late to matter
for fantasy, occurring in week 18 and primarily to help Genti
hit a 1000 yard season. He hits exactly 1000 yards,
finishing his season with a 2 yard carry.
It's a fittingly uninspiring end to a rookie season that isn't
bad by normal standards, but is crushing compared to the fantasy
community's outsized expectation.
Genti averages just 11.6 PPR points per game behind Omarion
Hampton and RJ Harvey. He does at least outscore
Trayvon Henderson at just 10.9 points per game.
Henderson spends most of his year pigeonholed in the James
White roll, but this actually compounds the pain for the
slappy drafters who thought pairing these rookies was the
key to the season. How to play it?
Ashton Genti was an incredible running back prospect.
Everyone knows that. But I don't know if people
realize just how good of a receiving prospect he was.
In 2024, he averaged 1.6 receptions per game with a poor
0.54 yards per route run. I've seen that held up as
evidence that Genti is actually a bad receiving prospect.
Here's the thing though. Genti handled 27 attempts per
game that year. 27 he wasn't used in the receiving game, but
not because he can't do it. There's just only so much you
can feed a guy. In 2023, Genti was in a
different role. He averaged 18 carries per game
and a very healthy 3.7 receptions per game.
And Gentie was extremely efficient in this role, turning
in 3.19 yards per route run. You want to use Gentie as a 2
down hammer? He'll do that well.
You want to use him as a versatile weapon, he'll do that
well too. The question now is how the
Raiders intend to deploy the rookie.
Given that we play a game that rewards receptions, it would be
really nice if they're a fan of the 2023 tape.
We don't need the Raiders to go nuts with his receiving volume.
They don't need to use Gente like the Dolphins used Devon a
Chan last year. Something closer to Breece
Hall's career receiving usage would be plenty.
Something like 65 receptions rather than 75 plus.
And then we need Ashton Gente to be the truth, but the Raiders
are clearly banking on him to be exactly that.
I didn't mention Dylan Lobby as a joke.
Well, not entirely as a joke, he's expected to make the final
53. Meanwhile, Raheem Mostert
appears to be on the bubble, Gentie's Russian competition
looks to be Zamir White, and Lobby really might be his third
down competition. What that really means is that
Gentie could be the whole show in Vegas.
Saquon Barkley is the only rookie running back to turn in a
legendary season, and he got there with 121 targets, a level
of receiving volume that Gentie is not going to match.
But like Barkley as a rookie, Genti appears set to immediately
operate as a workhorse running back and has a comparable
receiving role. He won't see as many targets as
Barkley did, but he should be efficient with what he gets in
best ball. Genti has been a target for me,
but this is because he goes after the big wide receiver tier
of Malik Neighbors, Nico Collins, Amin Ross St.
Brown, Brian Thomas and Puka Nakua.
But in the FFPC main event, he's going ahead of all those wide
receivers listed in order of their current ADP.
This is a pretty massive difference in opportunity cost,
even though we're only talking about A5 pick gap between where
I'm happy to take him versus where I'm completely out.
But that's the way it goes this high up in the draft.
If my opportunity cost is Malik Neighbors, no thanks.
If my opportunity cost is Drake London, though, give me the
rookie, manage the recommendation.
If the wide receivers are gone, live a little Derek Henry.
Legendary scenario The Ravens 2025 season begins just as
everyone expects. The defense remains elite, Lamar
Jackson continues to deliver at an MVP level, and Derrick Henry
punishes defenses for overly diverting their attention to
Jackson. It's a no win situation for
opposing defenses. Over the first six weeks of the
season, Derrick Henry has two highlight games, turning in 23
carries for 143 yards and two touchdowns against the Browns
and a vintage performance against the Texans with a 29 for
177 and two rushing line in both games.
He logs 2 receptions with 26 yards against Cleveland and 15
against Houston. Henry's faders can't seem to
recall why they couldn't bring themselves to draft a running
back capable of dropping 2:30 plus PPR point games in the
first six weeks. But the faders get some relief
in Week 7. The Ravens have their bye week.
It's a short reprieve. In Week 8, Henry rushes 24 times
for 140 yards and one touchdown against the Panthers, adding one
reception for 23 yards. The season is a microcosm of
Henry's entire career. The unbelievers wait in vain for
Henry to finally slow down. He just never does.
In Week 17, the Raiders travel to Green Bay.
The temperature at kickoff is 22°F as Henry lines up in the
backfield for the Ravens first offensive snap.
He's already carried the ball 310 times for the 2025 Ravens,
rushing for 18105 yards and 17 touchdowns, and he's already
added 27 receptions for 262 yards and two touchdowns.
Even before touching the ball a single time in Green Bay, Henry
has already secured the third highest rushing total of his
career, his third season with 2000 plus total yards.
And the most touchdowns of any season in his spectacular 10
year career. But Henry isn't done yet.
On the very first play from scrimmage, Henry gashes the
Packers defense for 33 yards. Lamar Jackson caps off the
Ravens initial drive with a 13 yard touchdown pass to Isaiah
Likely. The Ravens never surrender the
lead. Operating as the Ravens early
down Hammer, Henry racks up 26 carries for 172 rushing yards
and two touchdowns. He adds 3 receptions for 25
yards. His 33.7 PPR points are the
exclamation point on a lesson that some just cannot seem to
learn. Don't fade the big dog.
But in 2025, that lesson is especially painful as Henry sets
career highs in rushing yards with 2071, rushing touchdowns
with 19 and nearly best his career high in receptions, which
sits at 33 by recording 31 catches.
Somehow, his 388 touches are not a new career high.
He saw 397 in 16 games in 2020, but it's still an unbelievable
feat for one of the best runners in NFL history.
Silent killer scenario. The 2025 season has some great
games, but none better than the Ravens Week 13 battle with the
Bengals. Joe Burrow is the only
quarterback to truly carve up the Ravens past defense all
season, throwing for 345 yards and three scores.
In the second quarter, he hits Jamar Chase 10 yards deep along
the sideline. Chase spins in the air to secure
the catch with his momentum clearly by all known laws of
physics taking him out of bounds.
But not only does he get his feet in, he cuts back into the
field of play. With Nate Wiggins stumbling
through Bengals players on the sideline, Chase goes 47 yards
for the score. To avoid being inundated with
the clip on Twitter, you have to mute the eyes emoji.
The Ravens, meanwhile, lean on a balanced attack.
Lamar Jackson has one of his best games of the season,
throwing for 305 yards and two touchdowns, adding 53 yards and
a touchdown as a runner. But the running game is a
crucial part of the attack as well.
The Ravens backfield combines for 144 rushing yards, bringing
the Ravens to 502 yards of total offense.
Derrick Henry, however, has a modest fantasy day.
He turns 17 carries into 95 rushing yards and a touchdown,
but he fails to record a reception.
His 15.5 PPR points are a big let down given an otherwise
incredible game. Henry's lack of a receiving role
is a big part of the problem. As the Ravens make their way
down the field for what will become a final second Lamar
Jackson touchdown flick to DeAndre Hopkins in the back of
the end zone, Henry isn't even on the field.
This is a consistent problem throughout the season.
Like in 2024, including the playoffs, Henry fails to record
a reception in 37% of his games, meaning he goes catchless in six
of 17 regular season games in 2025.
And he peaks with just two receptions, which he hits twice.
His 13 receptions are his lowest mark since 2017, but only 6
fewer than he saw in 2024. Even worse, Henry doesn't have a
total lock on carries. After averaging 19 carries per
game in 2024, Henry drops to 16.5 in 2025.
With Henry turning 32 before the 2025 slash 26 playoffs, it makes
a ton of sense for the Ravens not to overuse their star
runner. But this isn't the Ravens being
prudent. As the season progresses, Keaton
Mitchell continues to deliver the game breaking explosiveness
he flashes. A rookie, Mitchell earns A
rotational roll behind Henry, siphoning off 6 carries per
game, exactly what Tony Pollard averaged behind Ezekiel Elliott.
In his first two seasons, Mitchell averages 5.5 yards per
carry. Henry's efficiency falls off
from 2025's career high 5.9 yards per carry to his career
average of 4.9. Playing Lex to Lamar Jackson
definitely helps, but Henry is just a touch less explosive in
his 10th NFL season. In Week 17, the Ravens travel to
Green Bay in a game that turns into a battle of running games.
Henry grinds out 91 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries, but
doesn't record a catch. His 15.6 PPR points aren't a
terrible showing, but they aren't enough to make up for a
season where he averages just 13.3 PPR points per game.
For fantasy managers, the especially frustrating thing is
that Henry has a very good real life season.
He rushes 281 times for 13174 yards and 11 touchdowns.
It's the 7th 1000 yard season of his 10 year career and his
eighth straight season with 10 plus rushing touchdowns.
But with just a 13 reception, 140 yard and 0 receiving line.
Even at half PPR, Henry's production just isn't fantasy
friendly enough for what he cost in drafts.
In 2026, a new best ball site called King Dog launches started
by a mysterious figure known only as Tree.
The Tennessee based company's scoring settings include half a
point per carry. How to play it?
Some people just never learn. It's me.
I'm some people. Look, I faded Henry last year
and that was dead wrong. I also faded Berkeley, which was
dead wrong. But I feel worse about the Henry
fade because he was actually cheap.
By the end of the summer, Barkley was making his way into
the first round. Henry was still in the 3rd, and
in basketball drafts earlier in the summer he was slipping to
round four. At that price, I didn't need
legendary upside for the pick to pay off.
The opportunity cost at wide receiver just wasn't that high.
But as I'm writing this, Henry has the same main event ADP as
Puka Nakua. The opportunity cost is very
high, and his upside case boils down to last year.
But better to get more specific. Henry's upside case boils down
to Derrick Henry sets new career highs and basically everything
on a team with Super Bowl aspirations that should be smart
enough not to give their star running back nearly 400 regular
season touches right before his 32nd birthday.
That's how he turns in his first legendary season.
Because we're talking about Derrick Henry, the outlier king.
It'll probably happen. Manage league recommendation.
Fade Chase Brown. Legendary scenario early in
2025. The Bengals look like they did
to close 2024. Burrough was playing great but
has too much on his shoulders attached to a defense that still
can't stop opposing offenses. Burrough is also harassed behind
an offensive line that has frequent let downs.
Burrough has to fight through minor injuries, offensive
inconsistency, and deal with frustrating one score losses to
the Jaguars and Steelers, but he's still Joe Burrough.
The offense puts up points in bunches.
Chase Brown is mostly along for the ride.
He's the clear cut early down workhorse, although he loses
work to Samaji P Ryan in passing situations.
He's not the stat dominant player he was at times in 2024,
but he sees plenty of work. P Ryan's impact is pretty
minimal even in the passing game.
With the Bengals dropping back frequently, there's plenty of
early down targets available for Brown.
He averages 6.4 targets per game through the 1st 9 weeks of the
season, a significant increase from the 4.75 he averaged in the
final eight weeks of 2024. Brown's receiving work drives a
lot of his value in the early weeks.
He goes for a 13 yard touchdown on a screen pass against the
Jaguars, scores on a 22 yard wheel route against the Lions,
and adds A6 yard touchdown against the Bears.
But Brown is hardly a 0 as a runner.
For one thing, he's more efficient.
After averaging just 4.3 yards per carry in 2024 and 4.2 for
his two year career, Brown jumps to 4.8 yards per carry in 2025
and he's frequently in scoring position as part of the Bengals
high flying attack. Through the 1st 9 weeks of the
year, he rushes for 4 touchdowns, totalling 7 from
scrimmage. When the Bengals emerge from
their week 10 by they tweak their approach.
Burrow drops back just 31 times against the Steelers in a 17 to
16 win. This is initially chalked up to
being a divisional rematch against an Arthur Smith slash
Aaron Rodgers LED offense. How could anyone expect passing
volume? But the Bengals maintain a
similar style in Week 11 against the Patriots, and once again it
proves to be a winning approach. Not only do the Bengals control
the clock in the fourth quarter, salting away a 23 to 17 win, but
their defense puts Drake May under constant pressure,
generating 3 turnovers At the time.
This is chalked up to the Patriots truly abysmal offensive
line. Will Campbell is a genuine
liability and pass protection, and Morgan Moses has been out
for six weeks by this point. But that's only part of the
story. The Bengals defense is beginning
to gel. It's not like the Bengals are a
grinded out rushing team for the rest of the year.
They put up 40 in a week 14 win over the Bills.
But Cincinnati is definitely way more comfortable leaning on the
run game and trusting their defense than they were in 2024.
This is huge for Chase Brown, who jumps from 15 attempts per
game in the Bengals first nine games to 19 per game down the
stretch, just above the 18.9 attempts per game that he closed
out 2024 with. Brown scores from 27 yards out
against the Bills in Week 14, but he does the rest of his
damage in close. Because while Brown may not be
the most efficient runner in the league, he is an absolute hammer
at the goal line. From Weeks 10 through 16, he
rushes for seven Green Zone touchdowns.
Through 16 weeks, Brown has already totaled 15 touchdowns,
the most of any running back. In Week 17, the Bengals host the
Cardinals. The two franchises situations
are dramatically different. The Bengals are fighting for a
division win, having split with the Ravens in Weeks 13 and 15.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, are preparing for a full reset.
The relationship between Jonathan Gannon and Kyler Murray
broke down after a multi score home loss to the Jaguars.
And the relationship between Gannon and Michael Bidwell broke
down shortly thereafter following a home loss to the
Rams in Week 14, their sixth straight loss.
So when the Cardinals come to town, the Bengals are facing a
Jacoby Brisset LED squad with Kyler Murray on ice awaiting an
offseason trade. The Bengals dominate from start
to finish, although ironically the goal line dominant running
backs only rushing score of the day is on a 34 yard dash in the
third quarter. But Brown's reputation as a
short yardage hammer still helps as he catches not one but two
touchdowns on play action passes at the goal line with 21 carries
for 124 yards and a touchdown and four receptions for 21 yards
and two touchdowns on 4 targets. Brown seals fantasy
championships with 36.5 PPR points.
In total, he rushes 289 times for 13187 yards and 13
touchdowns with 80 receptions for 658 yards and five
touchdowns on 94 targets. Good for a truly legendary
season of 23.1 PPR points per game.
Bengals fans begin calling him Sheisty Brown.
Silent killer scenario in Week 1, the Bengals open the season
as 5.5 Rd. favorites over the Browns.
As you would expect, they control the game.
But for Chase Brown drafters, how they control the game is a
bit disconcerting. The Bengals aggressively pass
the ball throughout the first half, using a mix of quick
passes and downfield throws to consistently move the chains.
It's not like Brown isn't involved.
He sees 9 carries turning in 37 yards.
He also logs to reception for 16 yards.
But the Bengals don't lean on Brown near the goal line,
choosing instead to keep the ball in Burroughs hands.
And with the Bengals closing out the first half with a 2 minute
field goal, Dr. Semashi P Ryan is in the backfield.
With the Bengals up two scores in the second-half, Brown
finally gets going, seeing 10 carries for 40 yards and a
touchdown. All in all, it's a 17.3 PPR
point day. Not a bad debut, but Brown
drafters can't get the image of Taj Brooks entering the game in
the fourth quarter out of their mind.
Brooks rushes 4 times for 18 yards.
As the season progresses, it quickly becomes clear that P
Ryan is going to be a thorn in Brown side in the passing game.
Brown, who saw 66% route participation down the stretch
in 2024, drops to just 55%. That's still better than his 50%
full season 2024 mark and higher than any of Joe Mixon's seasons
from 2020 through 2023. But this more limited route
participation is a sign that Brown isn't the three down
workhorse drafters were hoping Brown isn't a 0 as a receiver,
but after producing 54 receptions for 360 yards and
four touchdowns in 2024, he drops to 47 receptions for 359
yards and one touchdown in 2025. Brown still sees plenty of
carries with 264 attempts. He finishes RB5 on the year, but
after pacing for 321 carries in his final eight games of 2024,
it's still a bit of a let down. Like in 2024, Brown sees a solid
amount of goal line work, but not an elite workload.
He rushes for seven rushing touchdowns, matching his 2024
total. In terms of rushing efficiency,
the status quo holds, but this is the one element of the
rushing game that Brown drafters were hoping would change.
Brown, who averaged his 4.3 yards per carry in 2024, turns
264 carries into 1133 yards. And by the time that the Bengals
take on the Cardinals in Week 17, Taj Brooks has proven worthy
of mixing in more regularly. He's still there to keep Brown
fresh rather than challenging for the job.
But in a 26 to 23 win, Brown turns in just 13 carries for 57
scoreless yards, adding three for 25 as a receiver for 11.2
PPR points. For the season, Brown averages
14.4 PPR points per game. Despite being the starting
running back on one of the best offenses in football, his
scoring average is matched by David Montgomery playing second
fiddle to Jameer Gibbs. How to play it?
In some ways, Brown is a pretty simple bet.
You can point to the end of last season.
And what if we get that for the whole year?
Over his final eight games last year, Brown averaged 20.75
points per game. While that's technically not a
legendary pace, it would still be an absolute smash in the mid
second round. Encouragingly, Brown achieved
this with 4.75 receptions per game.
He was also on a 13 touchdown pace, which leaves room to the
upside. But it's important to consider
how Brown achieved these numbers.
He was literally the only back seeing the field in Cincinnati.
From Weeks 9 through 17, he averaged an 85% snap share and
an 88% carry share. Last year, only Karen Williams,
who had an 87% snap share, bested and 85% snap share, and
Jonathan Taylor finished RB2 at just 80%.
Taylor finished RB one and carry share at just 77%.
Again, Brown was at an 88% carry share over those final eight
games. Realistically, Brown is not
going to completely dominate the Bengals backfield like you did
last year. We might not see a ton of Taj
Brooks or Samaji Puran, but we're going to see more of them
than we saw Zach Moss down the stretch last year.
This means we need Brown to bring more efficiency to the
table than he did last year. Brown was definitely solidly
efficient. He finished RB20 with 67 rush
roads over expected, RB21 with a 24% breakaway percentage, RB-17
with a 63 elusive rating, RB20 with 1.06 yards per route run,
and RB31IN receiver rating. Basically he was Karen Williams
with more juice, but even compared to someone like James
Conner who was RB14RB11RB6RB5 and RB-11 in those metrics,
Chase was pretty lacking. If Chase gets the Kyron Williams
role again, wheels up. But the Kyron Williams role is a
rare thing, especially if a running back profiles is a solid
starter rather than a difference making talent.
When Chase Brown was going in Round 3, he made a lot of sense
as a better version of the Chiron Bet.
Now that he's moved into the middle of the second round, it's
harder to buy into last year's magical run as a sign of things
to come, as opposed to yet another example of drafters
being able to find underpriced running back production in the
mid to late rounds. I'd love to hit on something in
the vicinity of 2024 Chase Brown production, but I'd like to see
if I can do it without spending a second round pick on Chase
Brown. Manage League recommendation
Fade Devon A Chan Legendary scenario Devon A Chan's calf
injury ends up being a very minor issue by the time Week 1
rolls around. He doesn't see a huge rushing
workload, but of course he rarely does.
And critically, a Chan picks up where he left off last year as a
receiver. The Dolphins passing offense is
healthier than in 2024. They are less dependent on the
screen game and more willing to push the ball downfield.
But this is still a Mike McDaniel offense.
Screens and other design touches remain an integral part of the
attack, and with Jonny Smith no longer on the team, HN sees an
even bigger share of the targets than he did in 2024.
In a shootout with the Commanders in Week 11, HN
records 8 receptions for the third time in his career, going
8 for 68 and one as a receiver with 13 rushes for 67 yards.
He only gets in the end zone once, but still scores nearly 30
PPR points at 27.5. It's that kind of season for a
Chan who averages 13 attempts per game, up from 11.9 in 2024,
but still well below what we'd expect from a league winning
running back. But a Chan is still wildly
productive on a small rushing workload.
He averages 5.5 yards per carry, matching his career mark, while
still being a yard better per carry than in 2024, when he was
at 4.5. He can't quite recapture 2023's
magical efficiency of 7.8 yards per carry, but he returns to
being an explosive rushing threat, hoping to keep defenses
honest by forcing them to respect the run.
The Dolphins pass at a similar rate to 2024, the results are
just much stronger. Terry Kill doesn't return to
2023's outrageous form, but he and Jalen Waddle both have
impressive bounce back season. With the Dolphins able to attack
downfield more effectively, there's more room for a chance
to operate in the underneath receiving game.
He posts 1.54 yards per outrun, improving on 2024's 1.45 mark.
There are some worrying moments though.
In Week 15. The Dolphins offensive line has
a rough outing, which is more common than a Chan's fantasy
managers would prefer. On the Dolphins final drive of
the second quarter, TJ Watt drives to a tongue of Aloha to
the turf on 1/3 and 8th sack as the Dolphins line up for a 41
yard field goal With four seconds left on the clock, 2A
heads into the locker room ahead of the rest of the team.
It's a long 15 minutes, but as the Dolphins exit the locker
room, Tonga Bailoha has his helmet on and he jogs onto the
field. After the Dolphins receive the
second-half kick off, Zach Wilson looks as relieved as
fantasy managers around the country who collectively exhale
in unison. For a Chan, the Steelers game is
still a near disaster. He struggles to get going on the
ground, turning in just nine carries for 38 scoreless yards,
but he saves his day with a fourth quarter screen pass,
which he takes 35 yards for a score.
It's his fourth receiving touchdown from more than 10
yards out on the season, and his sixth receiving touchdown of the
year with 21.3 PPR points. HN ultimately does more than
enough to help his fantasy managers survive the first
playoff week. Things get more fun the
following week with Joe Cool in Miami.
The Bengals defense isn't the outright disaster it was in
2024, but it's not good and the Bengals understand that.
Burroughs arm is their path to victory with a 52 point over
under. This game lives up to his
shootout potential. And with the Dolphins trailing
by 1 score for much of the game, a chance sets a new career high.
With 10 targets for 9 receptions and 65 yards against Cincinnati,
he accumulates chunk gains as a receiver.
He doesn't break any long catches or catch a touchdown,
but HN does run one in from 46 yards out, his third longest run
of the season and his fifth touchdown from more than 10
yards away. The Dolphins can't close out the
game. Burrow marches the Bengals down
the field late in the fourth quarter and Evan McPherson
drills a 39 yard game winner with the clock expiring.
But the Dolphins have renewed confidence that they can keep
pace with anyone. When Baker Mayfield and the
Buccaneers come to town the following week, the Dolphins
don't mess around. They immediately drive down the
field with HN punching in a six yard touchdown.
Throughout the year, he's had to deal with Ollie Gordon stealing
some goal line looks, but it's still his seventh Green Zone
touchdown. He makes it 8.
Three quarters later, with three minutes left on the clock, HN
takes a swing pass 26 yards and is pushed out of bounds at the 1
yard line. Ollie Gordon prepares to enter
the huddle, but HN waves him off.
After the game, Mike McDaniel tells reporters opportunity is
created when ownership overcomes adversity within oneself.
He was fired up. McDaniels signals for HN to stay
on the field and he seals a victory with A1 yard touchdown
plunge, keeping Miami's playoff hopes alive. 2 weeks later, the
Dolphins will lose by 18 in Denver, but they don't know that
yet. HN finishes the season with
12116 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns, adding 82
for 679 and 7 as a receiver on 97 targets.
His 23 PPR points per game easily win leagues from the late
first round for teams that scooped him in the late second
round. The 2025 season is a walk in the
park silent killer scenario. In week 7 the Dolphins travel to
Cleveland. They are three-point underdogs.
By this point in the season, teams have caught on to Mike
Mcdaniel's newest offensive wrinkle, a pre snap motion
concept dubbed Cheat Orbit. In the early weeks of the
season, this new gimmick generates some big plays, but
it's copied and implemented nearly league wide by week 3.
Judging by Tuatonga by lowest disastrous performance against
the charters in week 6, defenses have now completely solved it.
McDaniel has one more trick up his sleeve, putting his house up
for sale. But before doing that, just to
be safe, he tries one last idea against the Browns.
McDaniel eases up on the motion gimmicks and shifts to a
genuinely old school power run game headed by Ollie Gordon.
It's not like this hasn't been suggested in Week 4.
Troy Aikman spends most of the Monday Night Football broadcast
imploring the Dolphins to run the ball.
The Dolphins squander their fourth quarter lead, vindication
for Aikman, but everyone has flipped over to the Manicas by
then. But against the Browns, McDaniel
is willing to finally shift gears.
Facing Miles Garrett and a weak Browns offense, McDaniel finally
drops the flash and grinds out yardage the hard way.
Gordon is excellent. He handles 15 carries for 84
yards and a touchdown, adding one for 12 as a receiver.
And a Chan is even better. He turns 9 carries into 65
yards, adding four for 26 as a receiver.
But with just 13.1 PPR points, it's a disappointing fantasy
day. This becomes a turning point of
sorts for the Dolphins, who still miss the playoffs but play
competitive football down the stretch.
For HN, it's not all that bad. He continues to turn an
impressive efficiency throughout the year.
His 5.6 yards per carry is an improvement on his 5.6 career
mark, and his 7.0 yards per target matches his rookie season
mark. But HN just does not have enough
volume to support his lofty 2025 ADP.
He sees just 170 attempts rushing for 952 yards and the
Dolphins new offensive approach limits him to just 48
receptions, 2.8 per game for 420 yards and two touchdowns.
His lack of opportunity is especially devastating at the
goal line. He averages just 1.4 Green Zone
attempts per game and scores just five touchdowns within the
10 yard line. He adds 2 more from distance.
For the season, HN averages just 13.4 PPR points per game.
In Week 17, when he turns in just 12 PPR points with 90
scoreless yards and three receptions, it seems normal how
to play it. A Chan's preseason calf injury
has caused his ADP to drop in the last week, he's fallen
behind Derrick Henry and Chase Brown in main event.
ADPI wouldn't be surprised to see him fall a bit further with
drafters beginning to get excited about Ollie Gordon and
with A Chan's timeline remaining a bit murky.
When A Chan was going at the 1-2 turn, I was having a hard time
making the bet. We're talking about an RB who
averaged just 12 carries per game last year and wasn't very
good on that work. HN finished running back 45 of
48 qualifying running backs in Rushords over expected last
season, only Kareem Hunt and DeAndre Swift were worse.
He's even worse in success rate, besting only Swift.
Other metrics tell a less concerning story, though.
He finished running back 24 of 36 in elusive rating with a mark
of 50 and running back nine in breakaway percentage with a 32%
rate. Still, after flashing as a
special runner in 2023, HN was deeply disappointing last year.
He remains behind a weak offensive line and his running
back competition is definitely more intriguing, if not better.
But this time last year, we were hoping to see HN take a step
forward as receiver. And man did he ever.
HN jumped from 2.5 receptions per game in 2024 to 4.6 last
year, and he maintained strong efficiency, finishing RB6 with
1.45 yards per outrun. Although he was just running
back 32 in receiver rating, HN just LED all running backs with
78 receptions. That's a big deal.
Over the last five seasons, he's one of only 6 running backs to
hit 75 plus receptions, the other five being Austin Eckler
at 107, Christian McCaffrey at 85 in 2022, Bruce Hall at 76 and
Alvin Kamara at 75 in 2023 and Alvin Kamara at 88 and JD
Mckissick at 80 in 2020. This kind of receiving usage
isn't common, and while Ollie Gordon might cut into his
rushing workload, he doesn't profile as someone who's going
to eat into a Chan's receiving role.
If anything, Jonny Smith's departure opens up more designed
looks for a Chan. And is Gordon, or right for that
matter, really that much of A threat on the ground?
HN doesn't necessarily need a huge rushing role.
If he can maintain his career rushing efficiency in last
year's receiving role, he could become a legend on roughly 220
carries. His profile has the potential to
be very fantasy friendly at his previous price.
I was having a tough time getting on board with HN.
The Dolphins are a hard team to believe in right now, and HN
2024 has several concerning red flags.
However, I'm willing to buy the injury discount if he falls
behind other targets. Last week on ship chasing, we
selected him at the two O 9 as RB-10.
At that price, I'm willing to chase the upside.
Manage the recommendation target at a discount.
Bucky Irving legendary scenario before boarding the plane to
Atlanta in Week 1. The Buccaneers list.
Rashad White is questionable on the final injury report.
It's a formality. White practices in full on
Friday. He's going to play.
But White doesn't play much. He doesn't even see the field
until the Buccaneers fifth series with Sean Tucker working
in ahead of him. But Tucker isn't rotating in
much either because Bucky Irving dominates the snaps.
Irving sees 69% of snaps matching his usage at the end of
2024. And Irving makes good use of his
playing time, rushing 17 times for 103 yards in a touchdown,
adding four receptions for 23 yards.
After the game, when asked if Rashad White's health
contributed to the backfield deployment, Bowles notes that
players work back at different rates, but that they trust White
and want to see more of them. White practices in full ahead of
Week 2, then launched just a 30% snap share against the Texans.
It's the Bucky Irving show once again, who delivers another big
workload with A6 reception, 65 yard, one touchdown receiving
line on top of 16 carries for 87 yards as a rusher.
As the season progresses, the Bucks finally ease back Irving's
usage a bit, but everyone understands the reality here.
This is Irving's backfield. Not everything goes perfectly,
though. The Buccaneers aren't quite as
effective under new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard as
they were under Liam Cohen. The offense sputters in a few
key spots, most notably putting up just six points in a Week 12
Sun and a football loss to the Rams.
The Bucks also take some opportunities to lean on their
other running backs as the season progresses.
For example, in a Week 14 home win over the Saints, Sean Tucker
salts away the 18 point win with Irving at 19 PPR points through
3/4. It's not a devastating outcome,
but still a frustrating one for fantasy managers looking to lock
up a playoff spot in Week 15. The Buccaneers prepare for their
matchup with the Falcons. Even with a couple of down weeks
and some missed opportunities, Irving is having a remarkable
season. He's averaging 14.6 carries and
4.4 receptions per game, totaling 1019 rushing yards, 506
receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns through three games.
At 21.2 PPR points per game, Irving is already a regular
season hero. The question is if he can close
out a legendary season in the fantasy playoffs.
Michael Pennex is significantly more dangerous than he was when
he lost to the Buccaneers in Week 1 and gets the Falcons out
to an early lead in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers, in a three-way
fight for the division title, are on the back foot for the
entire game and forced to the air.
This leads to a career high 8 receptions for Irving, who goes
8 for 63 and 1 is a receiver in a critical game.
Todd Bowles once again forgets about the rest of the backfield.
Irving dominates snaps and adds 14 carries for 72 yards on the
ground. Despite the negative game
script. It's not enough for the Bucks
who fall 34 to 31 to the Falcons, but it's a winning week
for Irving's fantasy managers. The Buccaneers then traveled to
Carolina to face a Panthers team that is coming off a 13 point
win over the Saints. Not looking to repeat the
previous week's shootout, the Buccaneers # the rock against
the Panthers. Dominating time of possession on
the road. Irving powers the Bucks to a win
with 21 rushes for 115 yards and a touchdown, adding three
receptions for 28 yards as a receiver.
The Bucks then travel to Miami to play a Dolphins team that is
clinging to wild card hopes. Tampa Bay ends their season with
a dominant win. Irving is the engine of the
offense, tying his career high with 25 rushing attempts.
He rushes for 150 yards and two touchdowns, adding a 37 yard
rushing touchdown in the third quarter.
It's his seventh run of 30 plus yards, tying his rookie season
mark. Irving also racks up 8 targets
for 59 yards with 38.9 PPR points in Week 17.
Irving secures a playoff spot for Tampa Bay as his fantasy
managers fire the Cannons. Irving finishes with 5.1 yards
per carry, down from 5.4 as a rookie, and he turns in 1.58
yards per outrun, down from 1.62 as a rookie.
But with 270 attempts and 75 receptions for 2013 total yards
and 19 total touchdowns, he still turns in a legendary
season of 23 points per game. Silent killer scenario.
It's important not to overreact to the first couple weeks of the
season. It's a long year.
Talent wins out. This is the type of cope that
Irving drafters roll out in early September.
But reality sets in after Week 3 when the Bucks beat The Jets 24
to 10 at home. With the Buccaneers in positive
script for nearly the entire game, Irving drafters are hoping
for a major breakout. The good news is that for the
first time in 2025, Irving hits 15 plus carries.
The bad news is that he turns 17 carries into just 72 scoreless
yards with two catches for 14 yards, which should have been a
breakout game yields just 10.6 PPR points.
Part of the problem is that Sean Tucker mixes in more as the
Buccaneers lead builds. Another issue is that Rashad
White, now healthy, has resumed his receiving role.
But Irving is to blame here, too.
After looking shot out of a cannon in 2024, Irving's
explosiveness in 2025 is more in line with his wrasse.
And look, I know you know his Relative Athletic score is bad,
but did you remember that it's 2.22?
Because it's 2.22. After averaging 5.4 yards per
carry as a rookie, Irving drops to 4.2, matching Tony Pollard in
2024. He doesn't embarrass himself as
a runner, he's just not anything special.
In his second season as a receiver, Irving is hurt more by
new offensive coordinator Josh Grizard than by Rashad White.
Grizard is very focused on Mayfield driving the ball
downfield, taking advantage of Mike Evans and Emeka Ibuka, who
hits the ground running as an instant star.
This approach is cemented when Chris Godwin returns to a full
time role after the Buccaneers Week 9 by Godwin made his 2025
debut back in Week 4, but he ramps up gradually.
By Week 10 against New England, though, Godwin is back to his
normal self. Grizard is rotating Godwin and
Abuka in the slot, putting Mike Evans in motion and generally
stressing Mike Vrabel out in this game.
Irving actually sees his receiving role shrink down the
stretch, as Mayfield isn't looking to throw to his running
back on 1st and 2nd down very often and White tends to play in
obvious passing situations. Irving finishes the year with 40
receptions for 300 yards and one reception, finishing with fewer
receptions than he did in 2024 when he had 47 and fewer yards
when he had 392. He does score his first
receiving touchdown, at least on an 8 yard screen pass against
the Saints in Week 8. Irving scores just 12.5 PPR
points per game, down from 14.4 as a rookie.
He becomes just the latest second year player to be
anointed as a future star and perform like a future backup.
Fantasy players surely take this lesson to heart and only draft
proven starters in the top three rounds of 2026 drafts, right?
They do not. After an unsustainably efficient
6 game run to close out the year, Bashal Tooten starts 2026
drafts as the 211. How to play it?
Bucky Irving is overtly risky. It's very easy to imagine how he
doesn't work out as a second round fantasy bet given his
limited sample, smaller frame, and poor timed athleticism.
But the thing about early round running backs is that every
running back is riskier than they seem.
We're swinging for upside here, and with Irving we get a 23 year
old back running behind one of the best offensive lines in
football attached to an efficient passing offense, and
we're getting a player who on an actual NFL field, has looked
incredibly explosive. Irving put up 186 rush yards
over expected as a rookie, just behind Jonathan Taylor and Bijon
Robinson who had 194 and 199. Among running backs with 125
plus carries, only Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Jordan
Mason and Chuba Hubbard were better on a per attempt basis.
Irving also posted a 35% breakaway percentage, RB6 behind
Saquon Barkley at 44%, Derrick Henry at 42%, Jamir Gibbs at
42%, Jordan Mason at 37% and Jonathan Taylor at 36%.
Irving was RB3 with 107 elusive rating behind Kenneth Walker at
110 and Tank Bigsby at 107. Irving finished RB4 with 1.62
yards per route run behind David Montgomery at 2.16, Alvin Kamara
at 1.75 and Jameer Gibbs at 1.69.
He also finished RB2IN ESP NS receiver rating behind Austin
Eckler. You can have Irving's 2.22 Ras.
I'll take his elite rookie season efficiency.
If he looks anything like last year, he's going to finish what
he started and take full control of the Buccaneers backfield.
Rashad White has little chance of stopping the player we saw
last year under the best of circumstances and is currently
recovering from a groin injury. And it's not just that Irving
was excellent last year. It's that for Irving to become a
legendary running back, we need his receiving role to grow.
Looking at previous legendary seasons, we know that the best
time to bet on an RB to do this is Year 2.
This is when running backs actually tend to take on more in
the receiving game. This makes sense.
They've just had their full offseason.
They understand the system and are able to focus on refining
their game to stay on the field more often.
Given Irving's overall excellence and receiving game
promise, he's exactly the type of player we should expect the
Bucks to utilize more going forward.
With White being a capable receiver, Irving's path to four
plus receptions per game is definitely a little thin, but
like as a runner last year, he could prove capable of forcing
the Buccaneers hand. The last issue here is touchdown
scoring. Touchdown scoring is a huge part
of hitting legendary ceiling and at 195 lbs Irving is undersized.
But in Irving's last four games last year, when he finally had
control of the Buccaneers backfield, he saw 9 Green Zone
opportunities, or 2.25 per game. We're looking for a path to two
per game. Irving isn't a perfect bet.
He requires a leap of faith that last year was the real deal, and
if so, that the Bucks are willing to believe what's in
front of their eyes. But this is a leap of faith I'm
willing to make. Manage league recommendation
target Jonathan Taylor. Legendary scenario.
Shane Steiken spent his offseason studying tape.
Fresh off a Peloton workout and a black cup of coffee, Steiken
would throw on film and breakdown plays for hours.
But he wasn't watching the Colts.
He's not a masochist. Rather, Steiken was scrutinizing
his former team. He was studying the Eagles
deployment of Saquon Barkley. As the Colts offensive identity
solidifies over the early weeks of the season, it becomes clear
why Steiken chose Daniel Jones as his starting quarterback.
This offense isn't about the quarterback.
Steichen needs a signal caller who can execute the basics, who
can keep defenses at least somewhat honest by hitting one
of several wide open receivers on a semi regular basis.
Jones proves up to the task, turning in deeply uninspiring
play but just good enough to keep the offense on the tracks.
Jonathan Taylor is a freight train barreling through opposing
defenses. Taylor averages 20.3 carries per
game, a significant drop from 2024 when he had 21.6.
But for the second time in his career, Taylor plays an entire
season, up from 14 games in 2024.
He racks up a ridiculous 345 carries exactly, matching Saquon
Barkley's 2024 regular season total, which he achieved in only
16 games. In the running game, Taylor
operates as the Colts version of Barkley, but in the passing
game, things diverge slightly. This is one of the reasons why
Daniel Jones turns out to be critical to Taylor's success.
Jones isn't great for Taylor's receiving volume, but he can
execute screens and throw a decent check down.
This enables Taylor to return to his early career receiving role.
In his legendary 2021 season, Taylor totaled 40 receptions in
17 games. In 2025, he sets a new career
high with 45. There's a rocky stretch, though.
Early in Week 8, Daniel Jones pulls up on a scramble and
hobbles to the sideline. Jones is listed as questionable
to return, but he never does. Instead, Anthony Richardson
takes over. His main responsibility is
handing the ball off to Taylor, who handles 34 carries, tying
his 2024 season high. The Colts escape with a narrow
victory over the Titans. Jones gets in a limited practice
the following day, but he's not ready.
Richardson starts in Pittsburgh. Steiken tries his best to
operate a modern offense, but if anything, Richardson is even
less accurate than he was in 2024.
Taylor is the only bright spot for the Colts.
He handles 32 carries, matching his second highest total from
2024, and rushes for 134 yards in a touchdown.
The game is an absolute slog though, a brutal chore for fans
and players alike that ends in a 12 to 7 Steelers victory.
Arthur Smith has never been happier.
Ahead of Week 10's matchup against the Falcons, Daniel
Jones is once again limited and the Colts opt to hold him out
again. The only highlight from this
game is the Berlin crowds rendition of Take Me Home
Country Roads. Richardson is an absolute mess
and Taylor is held to 76 scoreless yards.
The Falcons look jet lagged, scoring just 13 points, but it's
enough to get the victory. Mercifully, the Colts head into
their Week 11 by the plan for the stretch run is now crystal
clear. Daniel Jones is starting every
game. He's healthy enough to play.
Jones retakes the field in Week 12, and the Colts are frisky
again. They still lose 25 to 20 to the
Chiefs, but the offense is functional.
At least in the weeks that follow, the Colts are able to
recapture their Eagles light form, rattling off wins against
the Texans, Jaguars and Seahawks.
When the Colts host the Jaguars in Week 17, they are in the
playoff tiebreaker lottery, meaning to win out and for a few
other things to break their way. With the season on the line,
Steichen thinks back to his offseason mornings, watching an
elite run game win on the biggest stage.
He calls in the first play. Jonathan Taylor plunges into the
line. He spins off Trayvon Walker,
stutter steps, explodes past Yasser Abdullah, and he's gone
65 yards to the house. Taylor is channeling memories,
too, unhappy ones. He's never forgotten his last
game against the Jags with a playoff berth on the line.
The 26 to 11 loss that ended the Carson Wentz era started the
ill-fated Matt Ryan experience and eventually somehow led to
him playing for Jeff Saturday. Never again.
Taylor turns 29 carries into 187 yards and two scores.
He sees just one target, but he turns a delightfully accurate
screen pass into a 21 yard touchdown with 39.8 PPR points.
Taylor powers the Colts to a win and for the drafters who hopped
on board, punches tickets to fantasy glory.
Silent killer scenario. The 2025 cults are built around
Jonathan Taylor feeding the franchise running back as much
as they can. The only issue?
They're playing in 2025, not 1995.
There's only so many rushing attempts they can realistically
give Taylor given how poorly their quarterback situation
works out. The Colts know it's going to be
a long season. Right away is Daniel Jones is
strip sacked for the second time against the Dolphins in Week 1.
The idea of choosing Jones for his situational awareness starts
to look pretty asinine. Shane Stikon quickly becomes
known as a coach who can't develop a young quarterback or
deliver on a reclamation project.
The Colts move on from Stikon during their Week 11 by Stikon
eventually lands on his feet as a senior offensive consultant in
Arizona. The Colts replaced Stikon by
promoting their wide receivers coach.
The situation doesn't get any better under interim head coach
Reggie Wayne. Anthony Richardson returns to
the line up for a while, but it's Riley Leonard who closes
out the season for the Colts. The directive from ownership is
very clear at this point. Wayne overseas the most glorious
7 game losing streak in NFL history, securing the number one
overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft in an effort to keep their
tank job from looking too egregious.
Taylor continues to see plenty of work, but defenses know
exactly what's coming. Limiting his ability to hit big
plays and with the Colts severely limiting pass volume,
Taylor turns in just an 18 reception and 138 receiving line
with 0 touchdowns. It's his second season in a row
with just 18 receptions, although he plays three more
games than in 2024 by sheer force of will.
Taylor averages 4.9 yards per carry, matching his career
average, but he scores just 8 touchdowns.
Given the state of the offense, even that feels impressive.
With 289 more carries added to his career tally, it's hard not
to feel like 2025 was nothing but pointless punishment for one
of the most talented running backs in football.
Only Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson see
more carries in 2025. The problem is those players are
fantasy hits, while Taylor turns in just 13 PPR points per game.
As rough as the 2025 season is for Colts fans, it's ultimately
the best case scenario. Seeing an offense at #1 ready
made for a franchise quarterback and tailor made for a Manning
arch tails his grandpa to pipe down.
Declaring for the 2026 NFL Draft, Jonathan Taylor
immediately jumps to the 1-2 turn of fantasy drafts,
eventually settling in as the One O 8 in 2026 drafts.
How to play it? Jonathan Taylor is now Four
Seasons removed from his legendary 2021 season, a season
driven by insane rushing production, 332 carries for
18111 yards and 18 touchdowns. But in 2021, Taylor also
benefited from decent receiving usage, with 40 receptions for
360 yards and two receiving touchdowns.
That kind of receiving usage is still possible for Taylor if
Daniel Jones can hold the job. Last year, in six games with Joe
Flacco, Taylor was on pace for 34 receptions.
If he can hit 40 plus with Daniel Jones, a legendary season
is genuinely possible. At 26 years old, Taylor still
profiles is one of the league's premier runners.
He's coming off a season with 194 rush roads over expected and
a 36% breakaway percentage. Shane Steiken is highly
incentivized to win games. If he doesn't, he's not going to
be coaching the Colts next year, and he fully understands that
Taylor is his best path to getting there.
He also seems convinced that having Jones under center is
critical as well, which provides a significant boost to Taylor's
receiving profile compared to playing alongside Anthony
Richardson. At the same time, do we really
want to pin our hopes on Daniel Jones?
Shane's only doing it because he has to.
We have options. In many ways, Taylor's setup is
similar to last year's. He has to turn in incredible
rushing production and even then is likely to fall well short of
a legendary season. The dude just posted 4.7 yards
per carry on 303 carries while also scoring 12 total touchdowns
and only had 17.6 PPR points per game.
Taylor is a very talented rusher in his prime whose team has no
choice but to feed him, but his path to a legendary season rests
on Daniel Jones not cratering or Anthony Richardson learning how
to throw. It's thin.
Last week on Ship Chasing, we selected Jonathan Taylor at 2:11
in the FFPC main event, so I'm clearly not out on him.
However, some tournament specific elements of the main
event make the Taylor selection a bit more appealing.
The FFPC is a very running back heavy format given the ability
to play running backs in the flex.
This makes running backs objectively more valuable, but
also creates a market where people just do not stop taking
running backs. This is a draft where Austin
Eckler went in the 10th round and Nick Chubb went in the 11th,
so we sometimes break ties to running backs when the
positional value is close. The FFPC also has a 12 week
regular season, placing a greater emphasis on getting off
to a fast start, another reason to break ties to a highly
projectable player like Taylor. Taylor's breakaway ability also
creates a high ceiling. Last year he hit 39.8 PPR points
in week 16 without seeing a single target.
Taylor's lack of a consistent receiving role make him less
consistent and make it harder for him to access his ceiling,
but he can still put up single week spikes with the best of
them. This is an important
consideration for the main event, which ends in a
three-week Sprint awarding $1 million to the highest scoring
team out of several. 102nd place is 200,000 dollars. 10th place
is $10,000. It's a if you're not first or
last kind of tournament. His lightning in a bottle upside
is more appealing there. All that to say, Taylor can
definitely be a good pick. I just think that usually there
are better picks on the board. Manage league recommendation.
Target at a discount. Josh Jacobs Legendary scenario
Through the 1st 4 weeks of the season, the Packers are two and
two. They dropped their first two
games to the Lions and Commanders but recovered against
the Browns and Cowboys. Now on their bye week, Matt
Lafleur is breaking down those games.
It quickly becomes clear that the team will have more success
if they lean on the run game for consistency.
Jordan Love offers explosive passing potential, but he was
also exposed in shootout scripts the first two weeks.
The Packers will want to pick their spots in the passing game.
The new plan of attack pays immediate dividends with the
Packers winning at home against the Bengals and then add wins
against the Cardinals, Steelers and Panthers.
Josh Jacobs is just as consistent as Levore hoped,
handling 20 carries per game. Jacobs is a key part of the
passing game as well, totalling 53 receptions.
Jacobs totals 340 carries and 53 receptions.
Stunningly, both numbers exactly match his 2022 numbers with the
Raiders, but the 2025 Packers are not the 2022 Raiders.
Although Lafleur isn't looking to lean on Love as the down to
down engine of the offense, he understands the upside he brings
to the table. Working off Jacobs, Love
generates downfield production, creating frequent scoring
opportunities. Jacobs crushes his 2022
touchdown total of 12, scoring 21 times with 19 on the ground
and two through the air. Jacobs is also a more efficient
runner than in past seasons, setting a career high in yards
per carry. At 5.0.
Heading into week 15, Jacobs has zero 30 plus point games, but
from week 6 through 14 he hits 20 plus in every single week.
When Josh Jacobs is on the opposing squad, it spurs
messages between Co managers. I've got a screenshot of a
message that I sent to Pete in the future, says we're playing
Josh Jacobs this week and he just replies.
Well, the 20 plus point streak comes to an end against the
Broncos in Week 15, but Jacobs still puts up a respectable 16.6
points and he gets right back on track against the Bears with 24
PPR points as part of a 21 to 14 win that clinches a wild card
spot with the division title still up for grabs.
The Packers host the Ravens in Week 17.
Jacobs has proven his consistency.
He's been the key to the Packers success, both down to down and
week to week. But if the Packers want a really
big play, they need to rely on Jordan Love.
Jacobs has a couple 30 plus yard runs, but as good as he's been,
he has 0 of 40 plus he hasn't had one of those since week 12
of 2023. That changes against the Ravens.
Baltimore's excellent defense bottles up Jacobs for much of
the afternoon, but with 1210 remaining in the third quarter,
he takes a hand off from the 50 truck, sticks Malachi Starks and
pinballs his way into the end zone.
On 24 attempts, Jacobs totaled 155 yards and two touchdowns.
He also logs 5 receptions for 36 PPR points.
Jacobs faders had gotten used to the idea of him consistently
putting up great weeks, but at least they thought he won't bury
us. With the faders now 6 feet
under, Jacobs posts a championship winning, legendary
season. Silent killer scenario.
When the Packers built their offense around the run in 2024,
it ended up being pretty ideal for Josh Jacobs, but the sequel
isn't nearly as exciting. Part of the problem is that,
like in 2024, the Packers don't have a number one wide receiver.
The issue with that is that they just spent their first round
pick on a wide receiver for the first time since 2002.
But while Matthew Golden looks like a capable enough starter,
he's more of a Romeo Dom's level talent than someone who can
consistently earn targets Where Still, Golden's Time 40 doesn't
match his play speed. He's definitely quick, but he's
not the type of burner who can take the top off the defense,
which makes him a schematic downgrade from Christian Watson.
Golden turns out to be a less dynamic version of Jaden Reed,
but with the ability to play outside.
That's not terrible, but the 2025 offense is severely lacking
in verticality. Jordan Love continues to lack
consistency, and with weaponry better suited for consistent
chunk gains than explosive downfield plays, Love looks out
of sync with his offense. Matt Lafleur's solution is to
run back the 2024 plan of attack, building the plane out
of Josh Jacobs. And to Josh Jacobs credit, he
carries the load for the Packers, handling 301 attempts
for the second straight season. But Jacobs efficiency drops off
slightly from 2024 is 4.4 yards per carry to his career mark of
4.2. He also drops from 15 rushing
touchdowns down to just 8 and returns to scoring 0 receiving
touchdowns after scoring his first receiving touchdown of his
entire career in 2024. Jacobs also sees his receptions
drop from 36 down to 29 and his receiving yards from 342 to 222.
The Packers week 17 loss to the Ravens is a microcosm of his
season. The Packers work to establish
Jacobs early, feeding him 10 carries in the first half.
He delivers 44 scoreless yards as the Packers fall behind by 10
receiving. The second-half kick off, the
Packers grind out an 8 minute 19 second Dr. culminating with
Jacobs punching in a 2 yard touchdown.
Jacobs is now up to 15 carries on the day for 61 yards in a TD.
But after a long Ravens drive, Jacobs next touch isn't until
the beginning of the fourth quarter With the Packers down
10, it's a 3 yard reception on 2nd and 10.
After Dantavian Wicks drop on the following play, the Packers
punt down 17. Jacobs adds a total of 5 yards
on 2 garbage time carries. His day ends with 64 total yards
and a touchdown for 13.4 PPR points, his average score for
the season with just 229 PPR points on 330 touches.
It's a season reminiscent of Naji Harris's 2022, when he
turned 272 carries and 41 receptions into just 225 PPR
points for 13.3 a game. How to play it?
Jacobs is a good running back who combines the ability to
handle big workloads with decent receiving versatility.
Jacobs is also coming off one of his best rushing seasons,
finishing Running Back 5 and Rushroads are expected behind
Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Chuba Hubbard, and Jameer Gibbs.
But Jacobs has been a consistent chunk play runner over the
course of his career rather than a game breaking explosive
runner. He's only once finished with a
breakaway percentage of 25% plus and it was his rookie season
when he was at 32%. Jonathan Taylor has hit 32% plus
in three different seasons, including a 36% mark last year.
Saquon Barkley has hit 32% + 6 different times and was at 44%
last year. Jamir Gibbs is coming off a 42%
mark and was at 39% as a rookie. Jacob's lack of explosive
playmaking means he needs a huge rushing workload in combination
with an elite touchdown and or receiving profile to pick up the
slack. But while Jacobs is a solid
enough receiver, he's never had more than 400 receiving yards
and has a career yards per outrun of just 1.19.
He will add solid receiving production, but it's unlikely to
be the driver of a legendary season.
In a way that's actually pretty damn plausible for Bijan
Robinson, Jamir Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, and Ivan A Chan.
In fact, as a veteran bet on the status quo, his path to a
receiving breakout looks considerably thinner than Bucky
Irving's or Chase Brown's. Jacobs is locked into a strong
workload for the Packers, a team that fed him 337 touches in
2024. But consider that in 2023,
Christian McCaffrey saw just two more touches than Jacobs did.
In 2024. McCaffrey turned 339 touches
into 393 PPR points. Jacobs averaged just 17.4.
Additionally, while Jacobs 301 carries were only RB6 last year,
that would have been enough for RB1IN2023RB4 in 2022 and RB3 in
2021. He's not coming off a normal
season, he's coming off an extremely high volume rushing
workload that will be difficult for him to repeat, and even if
he does, his scoring profile creates risk that he'll still be
a silent killer. 1 of Jacob's path to a legendary season is if
the Packers pass more and rely less on Jacobs in the running
game. Jacobs was impressive as a
receiver last year, finishing running back seven in yards per
outrun and running back 4IN ESPN's receiver rating.
If the Packers are willing to throw this year and Jacobs
operates in a three down roll, he could be an extremely
consistent fantasy producer. I think that path is unlikely.
Jacobs is 27 and is coming off a career year in receiving
efficiency, but it does at least provide another thin path to 23
plus points per game. Outside of seeing nearly 400
touches, I find Jacobs more interesting as a best ball pick
where's potential to consistently hold down a running
back spot makes him a good fit for hero, double hero, or hyper
fragile running back builds. I'm at 6% in my best ball
portfolio and I've typically taken him in round three rather
than round two. But in managed leagues, a second
round price tag. I'd rather build wide receiver
depth or take Brock Bowers manage league recommendation
fade. All right, that'll do it for
this article. Thanks so much for listening.
Thank you so much. If you're a subscriber to
Legendary Upside or if you're not and you're listening to this
on the free feed, appreciate you getting all the way through
this. Hope you enjoyed it.
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the articles, rankings and the premium podcast feed.
Discord access as well. Lots of great content coming in
season including my weekly preview article called the
Walkthrough where I break down all the games on the main Sunday
slate. Good luck in your drafts.
Hope I got this to you in time for you to use it for your
drafts. And best of luck in the 2025
Fantasy season.