Right. We gave you the boomer opto.
We gave you the slappy opto tonight.
Karain has been deep in the minds of Moria working on
ownership projections for the FPC Playoff challenge.
We got Ben Gretch, we got Jacob Sanderson, we got Pat Karain.
Let's have ourselves a show. Pat Fryer, Helmo This.
Is what? This is what?
I'm hot. Anita.
Handjob fix your side for Jamar alpha play Chase.
Are you kidding me? You can't.
Handle the heat. It looks like we're.
Finally at this. Point you're right.
All right, boys. Still be every time.
I don't come on enough that like God, I just grin ear to ear
every time. The The thing is, is that Zach,
I mean, I frankly, I hope Zach has been hard at work coming up
with a new version of the introduction in which we'd like
Sam Sherman's $2,000,000 win has to become a part of.
Yeah. I would rather I would say that
before they have inclusion, sure, yeah.
So we wow, that's what I mean kind of you know, we'll see,
we'll see. You know, negotiations have been
ongoing between Sam Sherman and Ship Chasing LLC.
Some offers have been made. Obviously our lawyers are
speaking to his lawyers. It's the hostile takeover is
remaining hostile, but we've. Not agreed on the numbers yet.
So if you guys are. Or have you ever seen
Succession? It's kind of like that.
Yeah, it's kind of, it's kind of like that.
It's kind of like that somehow nerdy.
We are not Taylor. We certainly, we certainly are
not. So this is my first time ever
doing this with you guys because this is past my bedtime and
normally speaking, I would I would not be I would not be
engaging in this. But twofold 1.
Jake and I are now full time members of the ship chasing crew
and two, Peter said yes to go into a Denver Nuggets Boston
Celtics game tonight. Peter is so loosely following
the NBA he did not realize that Nicola Yokich has a
hyperextended knee, that Cameron Johnson has an injured shoulder,
and that the Denver Nuggets are playing guys who are so bad that
they're making inspirational posts.
Ticket and Julian. Strother.
Julian Strother somehow so bad he can't even get in.
But but some of their backup guys are making inspirational
posts on LinkedIn about their wins.
Pat, do you know all of these plans with like, I don't think
waiver dollars in my no, I know Jokic and I stopped listening,
right? I heard Jokic was hurt.
I tuned out Minaji, I tuned out to the Kaden Watson that I'll be
able to tell when they stop talking about basketball.
But every time I watch ship chasing, every time I watch ship
chasing these, these days, these two guys are taking it in the
ADP chasing direction. And I'm well trained.
My brain just like it's like Homer Simpson.
I'm just kind of eating chocolate in my mind.
And there's two there's 2 monkeys clashing symbols.
And there's two. Monkeys clashing until I realize
you guys are done talking about whatever other sport I don't
follow. I never felt like we were
particularly on track, but opening the show talking about
the third string of the Denver Nuggets is.
Well, you guys, you guys, I find this.
I, I mean, we will get, we'll get into the real stuff, I
promise. Well, I just think it's funny
that you're that you're bringing it up to make fun of Pete for
not being here, but also the kind of immediately proving how
important he is to the show, but by then starting to talk about
basketball instead of setting up what we're actually going to be
doing. Everyone knows what we're doing
here. Everyone knows what we're doing.
This is a sequencing of shows. It's the same thing every year.
It's Boomer Opto. First it's ownership
projections, then Thursday. Night Channel, you know, we like
to, we like to hope there's at least a couple people that
weren't here last. Year.
Well, how about one of us wins $2,000,000 again next year and
then we can keep growing the channel.
I'll win again if you guys insist.
OK, fine. We need, I think, someone,
someone, someone's got to do it. All right.
Crane, would you like to explain the methodology behind your
ownership projections? So here we are.
Here we are. This is the FPC playoff
challenge we're going to be talking through.
We talked last night about what we think the the kind of the
chalkiest lineup will be the the Boomer Opto, as it's called.
And I've been in the lab since and been listening to some other
some other content. There there was a little bit of
confusion over what the boomer opto is exactly because it could
be one of two things. So explain exactly what it is.
It's it's the most chalk lineup. It's, it's the, it's the lineup
that's going to be duped the most.
Basically, it's the lineup that's the comfiest that you're
going to see duped probably a dozen times or more.
And the reason it's not just the highest projected, you know,
play from each team is because that's kind of impossible.
Like the highest projected play from a number of teams will be
not playing them at all, right? So like to get to the Steelers
or the Chargers or, you know, playing any of those teams if
you're actually moving off the chalk, which will just be not
play them because those, those fades will be somewhat spread
out enough. So we had Boswell in the boomer
opto, but I have Pittsburgh fade projected for more ownership
than Boswell cause Steelers D will get played as well.
So, so yeah, it's the most most duped lineup is what we were
trying to accomplish last night and today we're trying to
accomplish projecting the ownership for every single play
in the tournament. And historically, yeah, well,
when we when we go into this, we often talk about how you've done
in the past. People want to know that
historically you've done incredibly well.
Your process includes tracking. You're projected and actual for
more than A at least that more than 1/2 decade now.
I mean, you've got to have 5-6 years, Yeah, since 2020 and you
have historically done incredibly well.
There's sometimes some guys that get steamed and not steamed at
this point. There is a little bit of that
leveling where your ownership projections do get viewed by a
lot of people that are playing the tournament and I think
there's, you know, they can influence.
That that's actually a couple. Popular plays and the stuff that
we talk about on the channel, we're all looking for the guys
who did this. But you historically have done
incredibly well, right, When you've tracked it.
I have, yeah. I mean, I've had some misses a
couple years ago, Tyree Kill in that cold weather Dolphins game.
I had over projected because everyone was just like, I'm not
playing the Dolphins. So there's been, there's been
some misses, but they're not a weather projector.
Yeah. Well, no, it was a narrative.
It was a miss on the narrative, people.
It was cold weather dolphins. They didn't want, they didn't
want any part of it. And these ownership projections
just. Kind of historically did not
want any part of. It hold up in freezing
temperatures. Corrine, I actually have a meta
question. More projections, yeah.
Because I know that the the field is going to be a little
different this year because I think some more serious guys are
playing it. I've seen in, in, you know,
these deep dark corners of discord where people are talking
about simming the FFPC playoff challenge and, and some stuff
like that. And that's, that's not in the
spirit of what we're doing here. It's it's not in the spirit of
it's First off, if you're using Sims on the FFPCI mean basically
fuck you like you're you. You don't get what we're doing
here. But I would like to ask you, did
that change anything about the process of projecting ownership?
Did you flatten things out at all as a result of that?
IA little I also so far I'm still I still feel like this is
mostly a contest where, you know, it's not like a sharp, you
know, it's not like just dominated by sharp players that
are, you know, project using projections in computers.
There's a lot of people just like entering line UPS.
They might they might do a handful of line UPS.
So I, I still think it's kind of, I'm projecting it pretty
similar to how I've been projecting in the past.
But as I was actually today, I was kind of going through and
kind of hearing what other people's favorite plays were and
using that to kind of adjust the ownership projections.
I may ultimately kind of come away from that and more towards
the highest projected plays. Because I think that'll like if
you want to just say, well, the sharp players are coming in and
it's going to be more math driven, it'll just go to the
more high projected plates. You know, like there's some
spots. What Kelsey's ownership would be
in a SIM An old version of the Chiefs.
I I wonder about that like because it's got to be a
breaking point. Like I know in DFS, since The
Sims have been introduced more like you, you get more of the
popular plays, but I don't, I don't know if that's where we
are in this format. Like I like in some spots we're
not, in some spots we are. Let's let's talk like.
JSN for an example, right? So like that, That would not be
an example of what I mean by the way.
Yeah. OK, fair, fair enough.
Then the the reason I was going to talk through that one is just
because I was writing them up before I got on here.
Like he's going to be super owned, obviously reasonably
super owned, but like what do you think his optimal ownership
should be? Not not as projected ownership,
but like what would be you think super ownership?
Like what? What?
Way up there. But like, I think it would be
like 72. Like I was trying to match
somewhere else and see 75 something.
It's like how likely are the Seahawks to win in their first
game? And you have to aggregate 3
different opponents in that. And I landed on about 60%.
And it's like in the world where they win, he's probably like
90%. Like wait.
They're only 60% to win their first game probably.
I mean if. They probably Rams are going to.
Be like a one point favorite and then if they play the Niners
it'll probably be like 3. If they play the Packers, it'd
be like. Six they'll be They'll be 3 1/2
against the 49ers. Yeah, I mean, I the reason I
said that is they're, they're pretty strong.
Yeah. No, I it's fair that if they
play the Rams that it's going to be close, but they're like
pretty strong Super Bowl favorites right now.
I guess I hadn't really thought about from that perspective,
though. They're not even that likely to
win one game, but they're also the most likely team to win the
Super Bowl based on the odds. It's it's.
Yeah. Anyway, it's kind of a month.
Well, I mean, they're plurality. That's when you start getting
into the. Go ahead, Jacob.
Well, it's just, it's like no one is really no one's that.
I mean, that's like the Rams against the Panthers.
It's like the only team that you would say are like nearly
certain to win one game, but like everyone else is like, I
think it's like even the 3 1/2 point favorites, they grayed out
to what like roughly 65%? Like they're like 2/3 to win
their games if you're looking to like Philly and Houston.
So anyway, I mean, you could go with the numbers, but basically
I would say like he's like 90% to be the guy if they play
multiple games. And so that accounts that gets
you like 55% ownership. And then what percentage is he
to be the optimal anyways? If they lose like in the other
40%, Like it's, it's hard to say like I, I'm, I'm not doing Sims
in my head, but like I would say roughly 5050.
So like that gets you to like 75% ownership.
So I think even higher. I think he's gonna be higher
than that, though. Do you think he's higher than
50% to be in the optimal lineup if they lose round one?
No, no, not to be, sorry. Not to be in the optimal.
I was thinking to be the best plan the Seahawks.
But you're right. If they lose in one game, Hawks,
yeah, it becomes pretty difficult to be the best.
Game well beats. Them or, you know, like, yeah.
Right, right, right. Well, let's start there.
There's there's some spots, Jacob, where I I'm not sure that
the higher projected play is going to get played enough.
Is is there's. We'll get to a couple of those.
I was going to say that feels that feels likely to me because
there are several teams that have fan favorites who are not
going to be the highest projected player on their team.
Right. All right, so we'll go to team
by team. Is that?
Oh, yeah. Is team by team how you think it
makes the most sense? OK, Yeah, that's how we've
always done it. Yeah.
OK, so here we go.
So this is the Seahawks men more.
You got to go to like 150. I'm at 150.
Let me get to Honda. Here's 2 hundo.
If you do command plus it'll you can zoom in even more.
Not that it it's fine. Yeah, it's beautiful.
So this. Right here, you guys know the
seeds. So this is basically exactly my
exact thought of the best play. Not getting owned enough because
I just, I cannot imagine spending 200 site credits on
FFPC and clicking one of these running backs or clicking the
kicker or clicking the defense. Like I, I think I this was the
first one I spot where I was like, OK, maybe.
Well, the the counter to that is the Sam Darnold thing.
Like people do think they can lose in their first game, right?
I think I think you're right. Like there's been a lot of these
types of plays in the past and I sorry, I kind of cut you off,
but where you're going, No, no, you're but it it'd be really
hard to cut. It would be really hard to click
anyone other than JSN like Walker or whatever.
But I think Pat was saying this last night.
If if you're not going to play him and that's why he has the
defense in the kicker as both 4% and combining for 8% soft fate.
I think you're telling yourself that the Seahawks are just going
to lose and you you're like, I'm soft fading him.
Yeah, I think that's what I I think the I think the saw fade
is is actually a good play. I think it'll be underplayed.
I have I have Jason a little higher than you do Pat.
I just have less going to the riffraff.
Like I don't have anything on Barn or Darnold, but but maybe
they get a little bit kind of anything on cop.
I I think that I think that this is roughly though what it'll be
right. I think more interestingly is,
is how much you want to play the Seattle fade stuff.
I, I think the Seattle fade stuff is pretty sharp in a
percentage of line UPS. Like I'll obviously have JSN in
the majority of my line UPS, but I'll do some Seattle fade.
I, I will not do any line UPS. I think with sharps, Walker,
Barner, I heard some people touting the riffraff a little
bit. I'm actually take Walker down.
I'll take these these running backs a little bit.
I think if you're going to pivot off JSN to the riffraff, I think
there's a clear play and I think it's Barner because of the tight
end situation. I do think.
Because I don't think he has to outscore JSN to be the optimal
tight end. It's more about the constraint
of there's not a lot of good tight ends, right?
Or the good tight ends could be dominated by their teammates.
Like Kiddo could score 15, but CMC, if they win a game, they
play multiple games, CMC scores 40, right?
Or, or, or Kiddo scores 20 in two games, CMC scores 40 and and
Seattle loses in one game. And Barner is only five points
behind JSN. The way that math works out is
like Barner's going to wind up being right for over Kittle or
more often. So my counterpoint to that is
just like I like to. I mean obviously life doesn't
work always as linearly as you think, but like in theory it's
easier to hard fade a really high owned like Saquon or James
Cook because like them losing and then disappointing as a
scorer is just correlated. Whereas like Barner JSN is the
opposite of that. Barner gets there through
touchdowns. Like it's not like Alton Colts
who gets there through like 6-7 catches.
To me, if Barner is scoring 12, he's scoring in the end zone and
then that means Seattle's even more likely to win.
So like, I don't, I don't love baiting a guy if he loses.
While betting on a. Guy who gets there through
touchdowns you just had 6-7 catches and my kids would be
going nuts right now. I just want you to know that I I
heard a a few different people talk about Charbonnay as a play
today through the idea that you know he's a better bet to score
a touchdown than Walker just. Feels so fancy.
Fisher says I'd take Walker at 1% so he gets a big run and
outscores GSNI think all of this is basically people betting on
Seattle to not advance but not wanting to outright, you know,
fade them through the kicker or whatever.
So I there's going to be some some of that yeah, maybe maybe
I'm slightly there will be some of that.
I don't think you're wrong to have some some on the riff raff.
Jacob, what were you saying? Sorry.
I I got so caught up in the 6-7 about because so Barner Barner
is likely to score by catching a touchdown.
My argument was JSN could dominate GO-7 for 85 or like
mostly dominate a low pass volume game where they just kind
of lose a lower scoring game, which Seattle can obviously play
those types of games. Barner can go 3 for 30 with a
touchdown in like a whatever 21 to 17 loss or something and
Barner's going to be optimal even if he scores slightly fewer
points or he would actually score more I think in that
scenario. But you see what I'm saying,
Like because of the touchdown thing, I actually think that's
what Hawkinson did at Jefferson last year in in the Vikings
upset loss. He's just saying it's thin
because I think I totally see what you're.
Yeah, like, I see what you're saying completely.
And and I my, my pushback is just and it's not a pushback on
2% ownership. That's fine.
It's just like, why I don't think I would like it as much is
just if I'm looking at ways to fade the team with the with the
really high owned guy, we all agree we want to do that in a
loss. I don't want to bet on a guy
whose path to scoring is predominantly driven by
touchdowns while simultaneously betting on his team to lose
because like the guys that's what I was going to say are are
more correlated to their team winning.
So I like, to me it's easier to I, I, I hear that logic and I
guess I just disagree with it because in a lot it doesn't
matter how many team touchdowns there's going to be if you're
going to outscore JS, if there's a bunch of team touchdowns, then
you're more likely to get one for Barner and one for JSN.
The the Vikings example is relevant.
They scored one touchdown and Hawkinson caught it.
Like the the scenarios where I want them to score 1 touchdown
exactly. And I want the guy who has a
high TD profile that he could be the guy who catches 1TD.
And then it's not JSN and it it is Barner, right?
Like, I don't want a bunch of points, a ton of Seattle points.
More like, I think it makes sense.
Yeah. Bar Barner, Charbonnay is this
thing I actually have trouble with because like, Charbonnay is
kind of getting rolling downhill.
They're doing, they're doing the, you know, the style offense
they want to do. They're playing their game and
they lose, you know, so Barner does feel a little bit easier to
see how he outscores JSN in a loss because it's just some
garbage touchdown he happens to get.
Why is why is it between AJ Barner and Mohammed?
Like I I it's like the AJ Barner and who had reference?
It's a super bad joke. Why?
Why is it between this and Mohammed?
Anyway, someone in the chat will get it, but I, I, I would just
say like if I'm, if I'm betting on that scenario, like instead
of hoping that AJ Barner just take the softhold 1 touchdown,
I'm just playing their kicker or their defense and I'm playing
the reason it's AJ Barner or Mohammed is the tight end
position again, like that was the reason that he stands out
over Charbonnay or. Anyone else like obviously the
the one touchdown thing can work, but it's one of those
things that can work in hindsight, you know, like, oh,
like obviously that worked, but it's not the kind of thing that
you would want to strategize around.
Do you see what I'm? Saying yes, thank you.
Barner is Mcclevin. I appreciate it.
I'm going to get, I'm going to get back on track with AJ
Barner's not going to be played and we don't want to play him
right. We're not trying to play AJ
Barner and no one's going to play AJ Barner.
So let's, let's move on the I, I want to play AJ Barner.
I think he's a great play. If you I don't really think he's
a very good play. I think he's a bad play.
I think he's a pretty bad play. Yeah.
All right, just so people know, cause 80% came in, you know,
there was there was like it's a little low and it I moved it up
to 82. So I don't disagree, but this
represents the third highest single play since at least 2020
because I've been doing this since 2020 and I have everything
a spreadsheet. So Cooper cut back in 20/21 was
91% and back in 2023 CD Lamb was 87%, but last year the highest
owned was 78. There's usually someone in this
general range, but this is this is pretty high.
So I'm not, you know, I don't think I'm, I'm.
So I think I'm giving. A we should go to Denver.
I, I do want to, I do want to like circle back.
I don't want to like this isn't about barn.
This is about the contest. We didn't talk about it last
year. I've talked about it basically
every year. We, we always fixate on the
constraint of the you play one player from each team and then
we talk about all the teammates against each other.
The other, there's two constraints in this contest.
The other major constraint is the positional like
requirements, right? And it doesn't.
So when I talk about the tight end thing, just to explain this
to the audience, it doesn't require Barner to outscore JSN.
It just requires him to be the relatively best tight end play
relative to his teammates out of all the tight end plays in the
tournament. And it's a really weak tight end
field. And there's a there's AI think a
strong possibility this year. There's no flex tight end and
the best tight end play is not the highest score on his team.
He's just the guy that made the most sense to the puzzle because
he was closest to his teammates and so like, Barner could beat
the guy by scoring 6 points. If Seattle's offense is shit
like there are there, that's probably not likely because
there's probably going to be a better tight end from one of the
alumni. It's probably not likely because
the answer was that would make them not to play Seattle.
I was going to, yeah. That would make them 6.
Points and they. Definitely not likely because
Tyler Loot missed that kick you. Guys are going to get the joke
eventually. That was a nice take.
Don't like it? It just wasn't very good.
No, yeah. Anyway.
Let's go, Let's go for the next team. 12 points can be, can be
very playable. Yes, 1212 points.
It is a good point. As much as I disagree on Barter
specifically, I I agree with your point holistically.
I don't think Barter's a crazy player or anything.
I just don't think he's like a smash.
I think yeah, no, he's not a smash.
Before we go to Denver, I do want to just get your thoughts
on Sam Darnold, who I have a 2% and I think it's probably not
going to get played, but this is.
The type of. Team that tends to get the
quarterback, you know, tends to have some quarterback ownership.
Obviously I don't think it happens this year because of JSN
and no one really wants to play Darnold I don't think but.
Well, Darnold is viewed as the problem.
Yeah. Like he's viewed as the limited
30. 6% chance to make the Super Bowl, that that's the highest of
any team, and yet the quarterback won't probably be
played. What did did people play?
So you said he's the type of quarterback that people normally
play. And that's true from the
perspective of the 36% to make the Super Bowl.
Like you just said, he's not from the perspective that it's
in a very concentrated passing game.
Did people play Stafford in the past when Cooper Cup was really
high owned? Did people?
That's what I would look at. So because I don't think they
did one the the year that I represent.
I mean, they could have this because cup was 91%.
So yeah, I mean it it literally, yeah.
It comes directly at the expense of the other guy.
So the whole thing is like if the Seahawks go to the Super
Bowl was 2% that year, he was 2% and Darnold scores some points,
Everyone's going to tell themselves, well, I would just
do JSN. It's like what you were talking
about last night where people would would start to do the the
Josh Allen and then they'd get down to Cook and then they'll
just they'll switch to Drake May and James Cook or whatever.
Like if they'll put Darnold in their lineup, then they'll get
down to like wider Seaver. Then they'll be like, actually,
I want to just play JSN. If I'm if I'm picking Seattle to
win the Super Bowl, I just want to play JSN.
They're not going to the Super Bowl with JSN not leading their
offense. They're like AJ Barter's not
carrying him to the Super Bowl. No one's talking to you guys.
And it's another another comp would be Mahomes from last year
where Travis Kelsey was big chalk.
Mahomes was only 6% and that was a bye week team you wanted.
You know, it's nice to have Mahomes in the Super Bowl,
right? But people didn't play him
really. So I, I, I do think that Darnold
will be pretty much unplayed. But just just wanted to note
that because you know, you're getting your quarterback to the
Super Bowl, you get double points there.
It's usually something people are excited about.
In this case, they won't be. Which he's not even a high
scoring QB though. And JSN is such a high scoring
receiver that it's it's a unique team.
I don't think people are going to play him and I don't think he
really should. No.
At a quarterback we should play. It's a Segway to my, my biggest
take of this entire tournament. Can I cook for like 2 minutes on
Bodex? Go ahead.
To be clear, I'm not saying that Pat is under projecting his
ownership. I I hope that he isn't because
that that would make my, my entire, I don't think I am less
effective. But like we're just talking
about with JSN and Sam Darnold. I, I feel like the, the whole
meta of this field is that you have these NFC quarterbacks that
have really, really good teammates and you have these AFC
quarterbacks that have very spread teammates.
So it seems overwhelmingly likely.
I think that the the optimal quarterback is going to come
from the AFC and as long as it's not the Texans in the Super
Bowl, I think whichever AFC quarterback gets in the Super
Bowl is definitely not guaranteed but is very likely to
be the optimal quarterback because you have May with a very
spread out offense, you have Lawrence with a fairly spread
out offense, and you have Bonex with a fairly spread out
offense. The Denver Broncos are 30%
chance to make the Super Bowl, and Bonex is dealing with one of
the least concentrated offenses of anyone.
He has the mobility, he has rushing equity.
I I genuinely think if Bonex actually gets to the Super Bowl,
he's going to be against the NFC quarterback that has a way
higher level of teammate competition than him.
He's going to have effectively an extra game because the Super
Bowl counts twice over any other AFC quarterback.
He's going to have at least, well, he's gonna have three
extra games over Lawrence or Allen, and he's gonna have at
least 1 / 1 of Allen or Lawrence or May.
It's a great take, but why are you throwing out all the NFC
kibbies? What about like Jalen Hurts or
Caleb Williams? Those teams are probably going
to meet in the second round. One of those guys is probably.
Going to play three games. Yeah, I mean, I mean, the Super
Bowl equity on on the Bears is really bad.
If if Caleb gets there, they for for sure Caleb could be optimal.
I I totally agree with that. I think if Hurts, if the Eagles
get to the Super Bowl and it's Eagles, Denver, I think that
obviously there's possibilities for Hertz for sure, but I think
you would weigh you, you would win an A significant majority of
simulations with Nicks, Barkley versus Hertz, Harvey or Sutton.
I, I would, I would guess not in every single one.
And if it's the Rams or if it's the Niners or if it's the
Seahawks, you're I think, a heavy favorite with Nick's.
Pook, I don't think you're a heavy favorite over Purdy and
Stafford. The way the offenses have worked
this year, I don't think you're a heavy favorite.
I. Think a reasonably heavy
favorite. The the 49er 7.
The 49er 7 people that have Jennings, you have Athens and
Poo and his teammates. These guys don't like I.
Don't. I think I think you're pretty
like, I'm not saying you're guaranteed.
Like I'm not saying Knicks has a the way to think about that
though. Davis, like Purdy can spread
around a bunch of touchdowns, but it becomes even if Purdy
outscores Knicks, it becomes Purdy over Knicks by more than
CMC over Harvey or CMC. Over sun.
And that I think would be larger.
You'll be going against, I think you'll be going against CMC and
Harvey not OR. You know what I mean?
Or or. Like, yeah.
You're basically a 1V1 versus the other Bronco.
You'll probably have a similar or you know, maybe you maybe you
don't, maybe it's a Kittle, maybe there's some Kittle team
and you have CMC or vice versa. But I don't know I I don't think
the. The I it's actually.
Probably even who you're fading you're.
So I started to have started out.
It's very likely that the optimal quarterback is just
going is it's like a slight oversimplification, but I don't
think it's much of one that the optimal quarterback will simply
be whichever quarterback outscores his teammates by the
most number of that's right. And it's a good and I think that
Bodic is very likely. I think he's actually the most
likely to be that quarterback. And and he's been because he has
double the Super Bowl odds of Josh Allen and Drake may double
the Super Bowl odds of those guys.
I, I don't, I understand why I, I get that he's going to be low
owned because people don't like both.
Well, because, because he also he gets the buy.
So ownership by the field part, part of the, the issue for Nicks
him versus the AFC quarterbacks. The buy would only hurt him
versus NFC quarterbacks because if he gets to the Super Bowl,
he's still getting more games than the AFC guys.
Because if he, I know he still gets more games, but it's, but
it's by 1 and he has to get to the Super Bowl to get there.
So if he doesn't get to the Super Bowl, the buy does hurt
him. If he doesn't get to the Super
Bowl, he only gets two games. I can get two games just by
getting to the conference championship game from the other
AFC quarter. He doesn't get to the football.
He's not going to the other. The other part of this is his
teammates. The other guys can be optimal
without getting to the Super Bowl.
That's what I'm saying. It's like his teammates get the
extra game to them. This is the part that that I
don't think you're saying well enough.
Jacob is if May plays three games because he and then loses
in the in the conference championship to to Denver like
it goes chalky by seed and and Knicks gets 4.
May versus teammates is May's level of QB scoring is higher
than Knicks's and his teammates are only going to get three
games. Knicks teammates are going to
get 4 Harvey and Sutton and they're going to get that double
Super Bowl. And if one of them has two
touchdowns in the Super Bowl, that gap with the QB and and the
best Bronco could be pretty narrow compared to, I mean, yes,
May's not or Allen. Allen has the exact same
dynamic. You know, if Allen, this is this
is the whole contest. It's why I was saying that thing
on the tight end every year in our little spreadsheet with me
and Pat and Pete and Leone. Yeah, I've looked at way better
play. But Allen can go nuclear.
Allen, Allen can be optimal in three very easily.
And then you have you have Harvey or Sutton double points
in the Super Bowl and you don't have a quarterback on the other
side. You have GSN or Puka or CMC or
Barkley or whoever else and yeah, you, you don't need the
quarterback in the Super Bowl. Well, well, if Nick, if Nick
goes to the Super Bowl, unless the Chargers beat the Patriots,
if Nick goes to the Super Bowl, Allen only gets two games.
Well, the I mean the chargers are like 3 point dogs they're
like they could easily beat the Patriots.
Yeah, sure, everything's conceivable.
I, I mean it's like it's like a 30 his ownership 40.
No, it's like 45% or something right.
It's it's like very it's not it's not conceivable.
It's like AI mean it's closer to a coin float.
Then there are some scenarios you're overstating the Knicks
thing a little bit because there there are some scenarios where
he does get hurt even if he plays by the by, like, like
Pat's saying and like we were just talking about.
But I also think 38% your your broad point is right that Knicks
is a good play at 6% for the same reason.
I was just going to say every year when we do this little the
the spreadsheet, we do a bunch of teams, me and Pat and Leone
and and dink and and and Pete and we track our teams.
And I've always had a little tab where I like to actually track
the actual scoring and start to get a feel for like what I think
is going to be optimal to different positions.
And This is why I keep harping this point on tight end.
It's a it's like a learned thing where when I have gone through
the different positions, I've learned that it's not always a
top scorer to position even. And the biggest example is
kicker. Last year there was like a 13
point kicker, can't remember who it was that it could not be in
A1 game loss because their D scored like 20 or something.
And it was like, it can't be the kicker optimal because it has to
be the D or it was like a really good position player score.
And the the optimal kicker ended up being a kicker who scored
like 2 points because the reason was he didn't have any like all
the kickers and losing games had like two or three points.
So they were all super, super low.
Or maybe it was 3 points. It was like Boswell with three
ended up actually being optimal because, which was frustrating
because he was the chalk. He was a chalk and he didn't
even score any points. But the the skill position in
lost guys that scored points, knocked out the kickers that
actually scored some points. And so it forced it down to
these like few teams that were either soft fades or hard fades.
They were like none of the kickers did well.
And Boswell's like 3 points was actually very live even though
it was crap. My point is you get all these
different weird constraints when the team scores all these
points. That's going to work in Nix's
favor if they do go to the Super Bowl like you were saying,
because if he does spread everything out like he can, the
the like, even if he's not the highest scoring QB, even if may
out scores him or something, there can be these benefits for
him by being better than, you know, all of his teammates.
And they're not the right answer at the other positions.
And there's nothing that disqualifies him from being the
optimal QB. But the thing that happens to
like Darnold not being if it's a Denver, Seattle thing is that
JSN has to be the wide receiver because he scored so many
points. When you start to look at the
numbers, you're like, OK, it has to be JSN.
So Darnold's disqualified. The math can't work out for him,
even though he scored the same amount of points as Nick's.
But there won't be anyone on Denver that disqualifies Nick's
at a different position. I think it's main point.
That's that's my point. I mean, what I'm trying to say
is if you, if you think the odds are wrong, then you have a take
that's fine. But like, if you accept that the
ESPN model that says Denver's 30% to make the Super Bowl is
more or less correct, then, well, this is this is a good
point, though, because it is fake and it's not going to
happen. OK, well, sure, that's.
What I'm saying like if your take is it's fake and it's not
going to happen then whatever. Like if if no I accept that the
30% is more or less correct, then to justify 6% being an
efficient ownership. You're basically saying in the
world the Bone Knicks makes the Super Bowl, he's only 20% to be
the optimal quarterback. That is just not true.
Like there's just no world in which he is only the optimal
quarterback in one out of five circumstances that he makes the
Super Bowl. You can't make that math work to
me. I'm not saying he's guaranteed
to be the quarterback, but he's at least 50% to be the
quarterback if he makes the Super Bowl.
Like so I think his ownership. I'm not saying that your
ownership projection is wrong. I don't know if it's that high.
Should be way higher. I don't know if it's fifty per
at least. Well, I mean it it could be
close to that. I don't think it's the the thing
that I think the dynamic that really hurts the Knicks play is
that you have so Knicks is like, hey, spread out quarterback, you
know you're going to get 3 plus games.
You know, in the sense that you're going to get 2 or 4 with
Knicks. But yeah, let's call it 3 plus
games because it helps my point. And it's like, you know, he's
going to outscore his teammates by a bunch.
And once you hit that, you know, once you get to that four-game
version, it's great. But you have the exact same
dynamic with Allen and and May. And yes, with Allen, you have
Cook, but the passing game doesn't really go through Cook.
There's there's certain types of Bills games where it's like it's
all Allen. He's just like crushing.
Sometimes Cook comes along for the ride if they're they're
putting it on somebody. But he there are there are
outcomes where Allen is necessary and cook didn't really
do anything, which makes me even more necessary.
And then may has, you know, very similar dynamic to to Nick's.
So those guys and there's two of them can get there in in three
games. To your point, if the bills get
3, the patriots only got 1, which helps Nick, but only one
of them can get no. But so there's an NFC team too.
There's definitely an NFC and then there's the plays three
games. And there's also an NFC team
that plays four at minimum, which like, see, I think you
really need Seattle or else you get, I mean, cause in some
sense, well, OK, yes, Rams or Niners would would make sense.
But if, if the Rams in Seattle, I think really work in favor of
Knicks, you're, you guys were saying the Eagles and the bears
are not likely. The Eagles and Bears are the two
and three. The eagles are reasonably
likely. The Eagles are reasonably
likely. And when you do the Eagles plus
the bears, one of them is, is really pretty likely to play
three games because they're they, if they both when they
play each other and it's a lock. If one of them gets upset, they
get a host the next round and the, or the other one that wins
gets the host the next round and is going to be favored to move.
So if the Eagles lose in the first round, bears become pretty
big fake. Not huge favorites, but
favorites to move on and vice versa.
Maybe not huge. I don't.
I don't know how it all work out, but I do think one of Caleb
Williams or Jalen Hurts getting three games and one and like
Drake May getting three games could be an outcome in the same
playoff where Knicks gets 4. And so when you're saying it's
like it's 50% likely to be bone next when the Broncos make the
Super Bowl. Also Trevor Lawrence, if Trevor
Lawrence gets I think Lawrence, I think all of these guys, like
everyone else that you're suggesting, I think are all
great plays. Like Knicks is my favorite
mostly. I think that Allen and May
consolidating all of this ownership just does not make a
lot of sense to me. Like, well, I don't think it
happens in the same. Well, again, I'm not saying it
doesn't make sense in the sense that your ownership projection
is wrong. I think your ownership
projection. No, no.
I'm just saying I think those guys are going to be really
overplayed. That's all a factor of Allen.
Allen is the one that's going to be overplayed.
He's going on the road at the Jaguars, who are a good team,
and then he's going to go probably if he wins on the road
at the Broncos, who are a good team.
And if he doesn't win two games, it does get tricky.
He could get there in. Two, you guys, do you guys care
that Nix is likely to put up a really brutal score,
particularly in Round 2? Does that does that matter?
At all absolutely matters. This is the other thing I was
going to get at is there's a lot of scoring.
They're going to play the Texans at home.
Jacob, I've done this. I've done the same thing with
plays before. And then you, you get into the
contest and look at it and you're like, oh, wait, it's not
just in theory, not all the crazy score the same amount of
points. You're like, this has to score
points for him to be like the obvious play.
Because some of the quarterback's going to have some
big games, like Jalen's going to have some monster games.
Against everyone but the Texans, I would expect, particularly
because of like, I, I know we've all had this experience of
watching Bo Nicks where you're just like you're watching the
game and he's just like running around and running around and he
throws like the worst pass you've ever seen.
But somehow Troy Franklin is completely uncovered.
And like they're at the three yard line and Jaleel McLaughlin
gets stuffed three times and Sean Payton goes for it and then
Nicks converts a touchdown to fucking Adam Who?
Put on the Broncos game right now.
Yeah, we've all we've all, we've all lived through this.
So like I started out when we first talked about this and
Jacob said Bo Knicks, I was like, there's not a chance in
hell. And then I've been sitting and
thinking about it and I've ultimately determined that one,
if you if you're like, if the heuristic is AFC quarterback
greater than NFC quarterback because particularly of the
running back projections, I wholly agree.
And then if you take that further down the path, you do
get to next as being a particular.
The AFCNFC thing only works if you're really fixated on Seattle
and the Rams being the two big favorites in the NFC.
But if it's another team in the NFC.
Well, that the Eagles are the. Eagles are the next team, the
Bears are tied as the next team after that.
So if we're just locking in. You know the.
The Super Bowl odds this year, they are what they are.
I don't know that I buy them as being even as.
I don't I don't know how to box them either, but the odds are
what they are. So Fischer's saying I Jacob
probably wants to get to like 15, and we're treating him like
he wants to get to 30. It Is that where you want to get
to or you? Well, I think I think his
optimal ownership should be about 15.
I think his ownership is going to be 6, and as a result, I'm
playing 35. OK.
Nick's, I just think it's really wrong.
So I'm going to play way over. But even 35 is 60 probably
right? Yeah, like I'm going to play way
over what I think it should be because I think he's owned way
less than he should be. If his actual ownership was 15.
Let's talk about the other Broncos.
We play 15. Yeah, let's talk about the other
Broncos. Yeah.
I don't think anyone is saying the ownership here is wrong.
I think we're all, I do think Knicks is going to get steamed
after this discussion. I do think he's going to end up
10 or 12. Like I don't, I don't actually
think he will because I think there's better plays.
I prefer Hertz at six than Knicks at 6%.
I don't think Hertz will be 6%. Hertz will be more we'll get.
We'll get to him. I don't think it'll be massively
owned, but I don't think he'll be sick.
So if you want, let's circle back on Nix.
Nix I do think will be low owned because it's frankly, he gets
gross and that's you don't want to click it.
But I think he's I do think he's a good play at 6%.
I don't I don't want to play 35% because it's a good play.
Jacob just said, I don't think people want to click Sutton or
Harvey all that bad, do they? Well, you know.
So this is the this is what I wanted to get your thoughts on.
Sutton has been someone I have raised every single time time
I've done this. When you do playoff best ball,
Harvey goes first, Sutton goes shortly after.
But there's, you know, the report that JK Dobbins will be
back and. Not until not until the
conference championship, according to Peyton.
But that still has a pretty big impact if you're bet.
I mean, if you're if you're taking the Harvey Super Bowl,
that feels gross to have Harvey. If Dobbins, it feels really
gross to have Harvey. So that's going to hurt Harvey.
And I've just heard like a lot of people liking Sutton, and I
think in part because people don't love Denver, I've got some
soft fade on Denver, Denver defense up at 18%, which by the
way, for a team that has a 30% chance to make Super Bowl, I
have a 25% total fade, soft and hard fade on, on Denver, which
is really high, really high. And it took me a few iterations
to get there because that's not what we typically see.
But I I do think like Baltimore two years ago when it was Lamar
and no one and no one really wanted to play anyone else.
They were 23. Or do people just love playing
Henry? What year was that?
They were they were the 1. Was that in 20/20/2020?
Because that that to me is the one seed that most resembles how
people feel about Denver. I don't think I have that.
Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown were way sexier.
Plays the Titans Titans. The Titans fake one seed was
2019. Yeah, I don't have that yet.
I wasn't doing it in 2019 all. Right.
How funny did we basically have two fake 1 seeds this year?
I I don't know that they're I just don't believe it any it's a
wide open Who's Davis? The chiefs aren't hitting the
bracket, dude. There's no like who's the
favorite then? Like.
That's what I said. Well, everyone's acting like the
Bills are the. Favorite I think.
You lose on Sunday. Like that's everyone so. 20/19
was the rate, so 2020 ones the year you're talking about the
the Titans were 16% total faded in 2021.
Who people like? Yeah, everyone just played Henry
when they like Sutton or Harvey. Yeah.
OK. But that was 25%.
The Titans that year were. They were not.
Plus, 6:50 to win the Super Bowl
going into the into the. No, no, they were like, they
were like the 11th. Well, because they were, they
were home underdogs to the Chiefs, right?
They. Were.
Lower. They were going to play the
Chiefs in their first. They were 21% to make Super Bowl
that year. Titans.
Titans Yeah, that's what happened.
To make this as as one seed, that's so fucking funny.
So what's the the Broncos are the favorite to win the AFC.
What's what are they to win the AFC this year?
The Broncos, they're like 30 to 33, depending on 30 to 33, Yeah.
The point I was making about the Broncos being a fake one seed is
because the Chiefs aren't in. I basically think every team but
the Steelers is like pretty live to win.
Right. And the Broncos play 1 fewer
game, which is Sutton versus Harvey.
Just some thoughts there. It can hurt your point too,
though, Jacob, the Broncos play 1 fewer game.
I really, I get all that. I mean, the other half of my
Denver take is not only the pro bonics pro Denver take.
It's I also think that the Denver D and kicker and full
fate are fantastic. Like I, I think like Harvey and
Sutton, I'm oversimplifying and you guys made like a lot of
great points about all the different intricacies of how
everything can play out that I I accept and agree with.
But like if if someone just came to you and they gave you the
Gray Sports Almanac and they were like Denver makes the Super
Bowl, who would you want? I would want Knicks.
If they tell me Denver plays exactly 2 games, I would want
Sutton or Harvey. And if they told me Denver loses
their first game, I would want to fade them.
I think that Sutton and Harvey, their total ownership
cumulatively is going to substantially outpace that they
actually are optimal. That's a massive simplification.
What you just did because if you did that same exercise with
Seattle, I would say if they go to the Super Bowl, I want JSN
like 99%. If Denver goes to the Super
Bowl, I want bow Knicks by like the hair on my chin.
Like I also want some Sutton and I also want some Harvey.
And as you got to play what happened?
What happened in the AFC? What about the the quarterback?
Did Mayor Allen get three games? Did Lawrence?
You guys are all saying that Denver's so fraudulent if they
do make the Super Bowl, maybe they get blown out.
Sutton scores the one touchdown. Nick scores like 10 points in
the double. You know the double .1.
And Sutton actually is clearly the wide receiver play cuz he
gets the double points. If they don't score points in
the Super Bowl, the double thing for Nick's doesn't matter,
right? I mean, that's a huge part of
it, yeah. He's got to go to the Super.
Bowl win, Super Bowl MVP for you to be like super stoked about
having be clear, Ben, you, you want Nixon the Super Bowl by the
hair on your chin or the hair on your lip there on my lip right
here. Yeah.
OK, so he's a good play the other.
The other angle I'd bring up for Sutton and and again, this is
like less of an ownership projection criticism than like a
play criticism. But like there, there are three
plausible matchups, right that they get in Round 2.
They get the bills. It was the hardest match up all
year for outside wide receivers. Or they get the Texans, which is
Derek Stingley. Or they get the Chargers who you
want to run on. None of those are fun.
Like if they if they lose in round one, I think Sutton is
like like if someone told you the Steelers lose in one game
and Denver loses in one game. Sutton and Harvey are like
drawing even with Metcalf and Gainwell to be in the optimal.
Yeah. I think so I'd rather I'd never
be more likely to win met half, but yeah, they're they're not
it's not a huge difference. Let let me on the ownership.
I I do want to get your guys thoughts specifically on the
ownership for Sutton and Harvey because.
I feel like, I feel like the boomers just love Sutton.
It's so love. Sutton I think, yeah.
And so Sutton, I just literally raised up even more.
A couple people in the chat have been saying, you know, Sutton
need to come up. I'm Sutton at 50%.
The more the more Jacob talks, the more I want to jam Sutton.
I'm like, I mean, he doesn't understand all these other
iterations. He's Harvey.
Harvey strikes me as a pretty good play.
If he's sub 20%, Harvey will project better than Sutton
project. Yeah, I want no part of Sutton
at that ownership, but I I could see how it gets there.
So I. I think I think people feel more
more comfortable with Sutton because it's like, oh, if they
lose, I've got I have the receiver, so it's fine.
I don't have to like bet on Denver.
I don't think people will take Knicks because they don't want
to bet on Denver. I think they'll take Denver D
because they don't want to bet on Denver.
And I don't think they'll take Harvey because they don't want
to bet on Denver. I don't think there's a lot of
people want to bet on Denver. So Sutton.
And frankly, if you do want to bet on Denver, Sutton is the
best way to do it. And they're not a fun team.
They're not a fun team. Yeah, I mean, they're the number
one seed. They're they've been very good
all year. And to Jacob's point, the odds
are strongly in their favor. This is why I think Nyx is going
to come in higher than you're thinking, too.
I do think people are going to think about you think you think
Nyx comes in a little bit. I do think there's enough,
there's enough sharp people in this contest that are going to
think about it and go, you know, this isn't the year to play Josh
Allen. Historically, Josh Allen's come
in really, really high. But James Cook had a really
great year and they're not a two seed this year.
The Bills are always home team, home team in the next round.
This year, their Rd. Rd. against two really good
defenses. It's a tough path for the Bills
and I think if you look at the bracket for three seconds, you
tell yourself, well, maybe I just want to play James Cook.
Maybe I want to go play a quarterback from a team I
actually think is going to like make a long run.
It's tough. Like I I've done like a playoff.
Obviously I'm not doing like a bunch of underdog or stuff like
that, but I feel like a playoff contest.
I do a draft every year that's like $100 buy in or whatever.
And I got one of the top picks and I was sitting there and I
was having to think about it and Alan made a lot of sense.
And I was I didn't want to buy into them making a run this year
because I think their path is tough.
Well, maybe Nix comes up. Maybe Nix is more like 8%.
And Harvey actually comes down a little bit because the the
Dobbins thing, you know, it just people I think are just going to
have a hard time clicking him. So.
And I don't think Sutton is going to get much higher than
this. So maybe, maybe I do actually
have Nix a couple percentage low.
Let's move on though. He seems aggressive.
Yeah, Yeah, we do. Got to move on.
All right, let's go. Which two seed do you guys want
to do first? We're 48 minutes and we've gone
through the 2. We're we're, we're an hour in
two teams. Yeah, Yeah, we are.
You guys have a lot of thoughts. Yeah.
Which which two seed? I want to do the bears because
I, I'm, I don't, I'd have no sense of what this is going to
be. So dude, just let me say this to
you. If you are fading the fucking
Chicago Bears in this contest, if you're part of this 12%, grow
up. Grow up.
Truly. What?
Why? What do you mean?
But now I'm gonna join them. I'm definitely gonna fail.
I wanna join them. They're 5050 to win round one.
They're a perfectly acceptable faith team.
I gotta hear where there's optimism in our chat.
Dink, who's a lifelong Bears fan, was like, already so sad
because. They're playing with Packers.
You can't. You can't do dink.
Dink is the exact opposite of a Homer.
Dink is Dink is forever. He is such a fatalist.
He he, he doesn't, he like, he will not believe that the Bears
are going to win. The Super Bowl before he said he
knows the Packers win. At the end of the day, Loveland
feels low. Would be my first thought.
Yeah. So I, I, I basically heard no
Loveland. I went around listening to some
pods. It's like, yeah, it I heard, I
heard DJ Moore, I heard Kyle. The thing about the thing about
Loveland is I didn't actually start to run routes until Week
16. And most of the players that
weren't still in their famousy playoffs are not aware of how.
And his two really good games were 17 and 18.
So I mean it was in the. National.
TV game. It was a national TV game.
Everyone was watching, though, because it was Christmas,
Hollywood weekend. You know, like Hollywood
holiday. I'm specifically I'm listening
to pods of of I'm trying to get outside my bubble.
So I'm I'm literally trying to figure out what everyone's going
to play. So if I just listen to like, you
know, like I didn't actually listen to to Ben and Sean
because I'm like, they're just gonna tell me who I want to
play. I'm not.
You didn't do a show on it. That was from last.
That was from last year. I saw it.
I saw it stealing bananas when I didn't.
I didn't. Well, I guess it would have been
helpful. Yeah.
I don't think last year's would have given you much.
Yeah, I would have turned that one off anyway.
But I specifically, it was like, I want to find, you know, if
there's there's some other thoughts out there to help me
get outside the bubble. I wanted them and I was
surprised I didn't hear as much Loveland love.
It's not that like he wasn't mentioned or anything at all,
but it wasn't. He wasn't assumed to be the
chalk and he wasn't like a Gold Star tight end play for for.
See, he feels so obvious like it because I I think Gretsch just
said this earlier, but like tight end can kind of function
as a soft fade. I'll get him up a little bit.
I'll move him up a little. Like skeptical at first too,
because his production was so late in the season.
But when you really think about it, and if you go look at the
numbers at all, like he's a really strong play.
I mean, he's gonna be the tight end probably.
Cuz like who else? Like, I mean, like you guys
already touched on him yesterday.
But you know, it used to be in this tournament, you always got
all the best tight ends. You got Kelsey, you got Andrews,
you got Kittle. Like, and now it's just not the
only really elite tight end is Kittle.
Obviously, there's a hard cap on his ownership because of CMC.
Like, yeah, it's just like, like, are people going to play?
Like, I get that Loveland's a little uncomfortable, but his
other team mates? Because even if you decide
you're not playing Loveland here, like you're still throwing
a dart at the board. I feel like between Swift and
Burden and Rome and more. Whereas at least with Loveland,
you can just go, well, I need a tight end, so I'm just going to
take my tight end. I don't even have to think about
the rest of these Bears. Where is the other ones?
It's like, I have to take Schultz over Collins.
I have to take Strange over ETN. I have to take Henry over.
Like that's why Loveland's, that's why Loveland's
ownership's going to win because you don't have to fade somebody.
You're right. Yeah, I don't know.
I, I just, I heard a lot of other Bears that weren't
Loveland today. And so I think Loveland and
Loveland's the exact type of play that I would over project
the ownership on because I want to play.
That's what I thought. That's what I thought last
night. I was kind of saying, I thought
you were one of the big misses I did last year.
I think my biggest miss last year was Bucky Irving, who was
not chalk, even though he had just been smashing down the
stretch because he's a rookie running back.
And Mike Evans. Mike Evans, Yeah, But I'm saying
is DeAndre Swift, Mike Evans, Andre, Mike Evans here.
It's like, dude, first of all, here's here's the deal.
This is a cold. Derrick Henry just ran for 400
yards against the Packers the last time everyone watched.
Packer, you can run all over the Packers.
This is in the cold. This is this is the rivalry in
the cold. It's bare bigger down weather.
It's at night. It's at 8:00 at night, it's me
freezing. The Bears want to run the ball.
The Packers can't. You think?
Nails, Caleb is going to throw in the cold, all right.
Fine, we'll do, Kyle. Menong Guy.
All right, That makes me want to say Menong guy.
You want to kiss me? Exactly.
What I You got to go, Menong Guy for the touchdown.
You guys are telling me. Just calm down a little bit.
I don't want swift pants in the ass.
Give me Menong Guy. Yeah, that's why Menong Guy has
some ownership. 4% by the way, Davis, this is this is a one
time. I don't think it counts as an
apology. It's just a one time offer.
I think Kayla Williams, phenomenal play in the
tournament. Phenomenal.
He's a great play. First off, he's a great play.
Second off, I thought you were ready to say he's the best
quarterback in this game. No, I don't say that.
We're so guys. Oh, we're so fucking.
Close. I just got Mononga to 5% based
on how excited Ben was. I have, I have, I have Beth.
The bears in this game though, I think they should be favored.
I think it's weird that they're not.
Frog Clone says that counts as an apology.
Thanks Frog clone. I I tend to agree.
Yeah, I think, I think Loveland. I don't want to go Loveland's
when I'm trying not to. Like I want to be.
I'm OK being wrong. I don't want to be really wrong
in One Direction or the other because I think he's a good
play, yeah, but I don't want to like have him basically show up
as a really good play cuz no one's playing him right?
And then everyone plays him. But I also don't want to over
project the ownership and us not play him because I would like to
play him. So I've kind of gotten it back
up a little bit from where it was a few minutes ago.
Up to 32% right now. Yeah, he's the one.
If someone could just tell me the ownership right now, if I
could just no one ownership, it would be Colson Lovelands.
I think it would be the one I most.
Want to know? I was doing, yeah, I think he is
going to come in high. I was doing the math in my head
on the Caleb Williams is a great play call.
I mean, being at 1%, he's probably still a good call.
But I guess I understand why people are and and the Bears
numbers are really low. And it's because assuming they
win against the Packers, which is like basically a toss up by
the lines. Yeah, they have to host the
Eagles or the only other outcome is the Niners beat the Eagles
and then the Niners go to go to Seattle and then they have to
take take the ramps. They're very likely to play
either the Eagles or the Rams in the second round.
They do get a home game, but their path is actually tougher
than I was realizing. Those are the two teams that
would make me think that the Bears are not going to play
three games. I think you need at least three
games with probably need three with Caleb.
Yeah, yeah, probably need 3, especially because there's so
many good AFC quarterbacks without, like we talked about
Knicks, but May Allen? No, but I mean, I would include
Knicks in the argument against Caleb, like you.
Yeah, you're fading potentially Super Bowl Knicks.
And if you're not, if it's not Super Bowl Knicks, it might be
Super Bowl Lawrence or Super Bowl Allen or Super Bowl May.
That's a problem. It's gonna be really hard for an
NFC quarterback to get there in two games.
Really hard. All right, let's go to the other
two seed here, the New England Patriots.
I brought May's ownership down since the first run of this.
I still have them as the highest quarterback.
I feel, I feel like right away, I feel like you got to almost
swap Trevion and Stevenson. You know, this is one of those
spots where projection, like you asked about early on, you're
like, you know, does the potential field shifting, like
change the way I'm doing this? This is a spot where I'm trying
to hold on to the fact that like, Henderson is clearly the
better play, and we'll be projected better than than
Stevenson, but all I've heard today is romandre, romandre,
romandre E. TRETR right now for For whatever
it's worth, ETR has Trevion 12.5 points this weekend, Stevenson
10.5 if Henderson gets more carries or if Stevenson gets
more carries than Hendo this upcoming game against the
Chargers. What's the projection next week?
Well, the the only thing that I would if wait, why would
Stephenson get more carries in Henderson?
He started the last two games. Did he?
When's the last time he did that?
Because Stephenson hasn't had double digit carries since week
13. No, we're just making meet up
with Madre Stephenson. We just pretend like what he's
doing is different than what he's actually doing.
No, Stephenson starts the way David Montgomery used to start.
Like he starts, but like Henderson gets more carries
every single time. But but I will say sentiment
wise, like Grant, you mentioned you're in like $100 draft with
buddies or whatever. I'm in two similar things where
you're just drafting the players in a snake like fashion.
These guys, we're talking boomers, we're talking boomer
octo and both of them from Andre went before Fabian Anderson And,
and, and we don't know where Henderson would have fallen to
because he's on my team. So I'm not sure how long it
would have lasted. I mean, he had a huge week 18,
but like I'm looking at it, he had 7886 carries the last four
games working back and that includes a game where Trayvon
left with a concussion. You got to go back before
they're by. We got the week 14 by and
Brookie post by bump for Henderson for for a game where
Stevenson had more than 10 carries.
He does catch some passes. Typically Henderson, this is his
carries working backward 1319 five in a game where he was
concussed 1411 that were before the by 18191414.
Obviously Stevenson missed some of that, he said Double digit
every single game. Every single game for like 8
straight games for the choir. Ben, I'm sorry, I'm just the
conversation around this too has been driving me nuts.
But this is the. This is the.
Choir here, but I don't know if you're preaching to the Sizzler.
I don't know if you're preaching to the if Hampton is out, it
would make sense for the past just to feed Stevenson over
Henderson. I, I don't know what I but that
is sentiment. Like I think Jason's comments
there is like I'm hearing stuff that's.
But that's all I, that's all I was saying, All I was.
Saying is sentiment for Stevenson pass blocking chops,
goal line roll. But like I, I don't know why
Hampton being out would would affect their running back usage
at all personally. But like I'm hearing a lot of
things that are all like, listen, I think Ramadres going
to get the work and not Henderson.
So what I'm trying to figure out what the field's going to do.
I've brought Stevenson up a lot. I mean, I think it should be
like it's 29% Henderson, you know, and Stevenson should be
down below 10 or something. Like I Henderson to me is like
you want to talk about who could get there in a loss?
Henderson can get there in a loss because he has the, the,
the game breaking ability. Henderson also has the ability
to completely run away even from May with the you know, he can
hit 80 yard touchdowns. Like it's nuts.
Like, so I, I think like a guy who, who just laps his teammates
outside of May Henderson is like, clearly it took me a lot
to have Henderson below digs because I think that's wrong.
But I also think it's played like that after some, some
reason. This is why May has to go up
though, right? Like who, who's are people going
to play these other guys? I, I, I think, I think there's
only one quarterback. There's a lot of quarterbacks
we're going to. Say should be played.
The other guy, I think that's, well, I think Alan got in the
sense, I think Henderson is low in the sense that I wanna play
him at this ownership. I don't think he's too low in
the sense that I think you're wrong, though.
The one guy I think that is actually too low for ownership
is Hunter Henry. I think because we talked about
the pressure on tight end, if people decide they're not
playing may in their lineup for whatever reason, because they're
going to make the quarterback decision first, I think more
often than not. And if they've already decided
on Allen or Nicks or Hertz or whoever else, and they don't
want to pick between the running backs, is digs really that
enticing? I could just see someone being
like, look, I'm going to solve tight end and and maybe I'll get
two or three games out of Henry. I I could see him creeping.
I, I agree with this. What what you're saying and what
and Shorty says here the the combined running backs being 30
and the combined of digs and Henry being 30.
God Henry has just been so like meh.
Like doesn't, don't. Again, you need a tight end.
It's really tight end. You need a tight end.
Yeah. Yeah.
So there's a lot of, there's a lot of Schultz love out there
and there's a lot of Goddard love.
We'll we'll get to that. That's that's where I have some
tight end. I don't think Henry's honestly
that great of a play. Even at 13% he's not.
It's not like he projects great. So I'm trying not to.
He's only a good play from the perspective that you don't
really know which running back to play.
You don't really feel good about Diggs, whose routes have been up
and down all over the place and like all the other stuff he's
got going on. I mean, I don't think that's
actually going to impact his game because it's like 2 weeks
old, but really more the route stuff.
But maybe his routes will really spike.
I don't know. Diggs is maybe a decent click, I
don't know, but Henry like is AI think I think Goddard's gonna
catch a good amount of ownership and and Schultz will catch some
too. And then you have Loveland,
which we who we just raised by the but isn't it?
Isn't it harder to click Goddard over Brown Barkley Smith than it
is to click Henry over Diggs Henderson?
That's what I was gonna say. I was taking my times and sworn
2 touchdowns. That's true, but Henry Henry is
a lot like Loveland where you you don't have to fade a shock
piece. You don't have to fade a
superstar other than May, but to your point, there's only one
quarterback. I would be I would I would take
use to not play guys that people already don't really want to
play. I would bet money that Henry's
not higher owned than Goddard. What do you guys say?
I'd I'd book you for that. OK, interesting.
Because I I just think people will look at these Patriots
other than May. A lot of people will play May,
But if you're not playing May, I think people will look at these
Patriots and look for reasons not to play them.
But no one's looking for a reason to not play Barkley or
Brant. You're you're like, you're like
annoyed that you can't play either of them and that you have
to play Goddard. But Goddard sentiment on the on
the Patriots outside the ship chasing universe is pretty
heavy. Romandre I would say yeah.
And then this goes pretty high in these playoff tournaments.
I think people digs is a a fairly comfy way to go.
I mean, he's not super comfy, but it's it's like it's not like
I can't figure out which wide receiver to play.
It's digs. Everyone's playing digs of the
Yeah, No, I like the digs, the ownership where it is my my only
in a vacuum. My only difference is Henry
higher, Ramondre lower. But if you're, you're out there
at the Sizzler listening to Ramondre people.
I will. I will the Ramondre stuff's
real. I I think it's real and also
like Ramondre is someone I'm I'm happy to get in playoff
basketball contest as well. Love them though.
Don't get Henry to play later. The red Q tag could could
matter, but keep an eye on that. I mean, obviously the Hampton
stuff we'll get to are that are that voids because of the Q tag.
Fun fact, I feel safe. Maybe, maybe Henry comes up a
bit. There's a lot of a lot of Henry
bullishness in the chat. I'll move him up a little bit
more. But fun fact, Hunter Henry,
obviously touchdowns matter too and Goddard scored 11 and Henry
scored 7. Hunter Henry had five more yards
per game, six more yards per game than Dallas Goddard this
year. But like, to me, I don't know
it, it gets to a point where like if, if Henderson is played
at the same rate as Henry, that's like a like feels like
generational opportunity on Henderson.
Like I don't like to have ownership to the point where I'm
like, and now it's time to jam Henderson.
Henderson's the Bucky from last
year. Dude, we're the only ones who
like Henderson. People got so fucking mad at me
when I tried to say that Henderson was a decent pick this
year a couple weeks ago. Like I think JJ had a pole,
whether he was a good neutral or bad.
And then I started talking about it and I got so much.
I I don't never. I don't think there's a thing
that I got more opinions back from that.
I was like, what are you people talking about than that all
year? The people are just really out
on Henderson. Henderson's going to be 10% on
see, I'm I'm not going to project like that because he
that would make him the best play in the entire tournament.
And I don't I don't like that's disrespectful to the field.
If you have it at if I were to put a 10%, that would basically
be telling the field, I don't want the word what they're
doing. I've kind of feel like that at
16, Like I kind of feel like I need to raise it from 16.
This feels this feels bad. This was wrong.
I I do think that Mac Nova has a point here, like saying it's
crazy that the guy scoring more fantasy points recently goes
higher as peak sloppy. Like Stevenson has been scoring
touchdowns lately. And I was talking about Russia
10. He catches some passes.
He's been scoring a bunch of touchdowns and people think that
he's going to score touchdowns in the playoffs.
So but there's a market right? There is a market right now in
on DraftKings and on Underdog where people are drafting these
players and the drafting in the high volume.
And Henderson goes ahead of Romandre in every single lot and
he goes ahead of he goes ahead of Stefan digs in every single
draft. And he goes ahead of Hunter
Henry on on DraftKings where you need a tight end and they're
actually fairly scarce in every single draft.
So I don't, I don't know, at some point, like people aren't
out on Henderson because I watched them draft them all the
time. So that's a great point.
That's a great point. Yeah, yeah, that's a great
point. All right, let's move to the
three seeds because we're at one O 5.
We've got through 414 teams. We gotta we gotta get a progress
meter up. We are progress meter.
Progress meter is a great idea all.
Right, let's go to Jacksonville. This is interesting because they
have so many dudes who score points like P wash at 5%.
To me, that feels I'm really. Glad you raised Parker
Washington because that that I remember I saw your first run
and I was like, that's too low because that that dude is red
hot. Yeah, people love people love.
I want I want P wash over. Jacoby.
I love, I love P wash. I'm with them.
I'm with the boomers on this one.
I'm all in on P wash. I I had them as my favorite
player on the Jack. You think P wash over Jacoby?
No. Not not in terms of ownership,
in terms of my favorite click. OK, when Pewash, Jacoby and
Thomas have all been healthy, Pewash is leaving them see that
this is Evergreen. Every quarterback thumbs up.
Everyone says raise the quarterback, guys.
There's one quarterback, There's one quarterback, OK?
I'm not, I'm not saying raise Lawrence.
I do think Nicks. I was pushing Nicks and May and
I do think they should both go up on them.
The guy that I think should come down is when we get to the
bills, I'm going to tell you that I think Alan's too high.
I'm guessing I don't know where he's at.
High for ownership or high for play?
For ownership. I don't think he's gonna come in
as high as we think 'cause the last few years he's coming.
Well, we'll get there. We want to talk.
About there, this is good. This is good information and I
should have mentioned this but right now in the underdog draft
games, which is big fucking nerds, Parker Washington is
going ahead of Jacoby right now in in the draft games for for
wild card weekend for this game against the Bills.
Best match up against the Bills too, like outsiders.
He's going to get a lot of the slot work.
It's going to be short over the immediate that is.
That is good information. Ownership is pretty.
I think this ownership is mostly good though.
Like I I like that Lawrence, I think ETN is going to be between
40 and 50. I think it's going to be pretty
spread between Strange, Myers, Washington all like in the mid
to high single digits. Yeah, this seems good.
I'll bring Washington up a little like this, Myers.
Down a little. Yeah, I just checked ETR and on
ETR for this week, they're projected like completely neck
and neck, Myers. The same.
I love the NFL now. It's so fucking wide open, dude.
Fuck it Parker. Washington's the best play I
got. I got one other I got one other
note here, but shouldn't Cam little maybe get a smidgen of a
butt? And I don't know how Andy is
relative to all the other kickers because he's a meme
pretty high. Like any anytime, anytime.
I haven't pretty high one. Of the notes, was the same high
too high? Definitely pretty high.
So I I think, but but Davis to your point came a little, it
will be played and people are excited to play them and I think
1. So this was an interesting
thing. I did hear from other people
playing the contest saying, hey, if you're playing a quarterback,
don't even play a guy in the opposite team, which I agree
with generally. And that that was an interesting
thing of like, OK, yeah, maybe Cam Little's ownership actually
it comes down a bit because Alan will be played like he won't be
maybe massive chalk, but hard fade will be more popular on
those teams. So, you know, I don't have I
actually probably have hard fate actually too low for that
reason. I'm going to make a note on that
real quick. Shorty keeps saying like he says
we're too low on ETN and TLO. Probably he keeps saying that if
anything, I think you're too high on TLOB potentially.
I mean, every quarterback feels too low for to everyone.
So we I think Pat, I think he's too high.
I think Lawrence is too high. I said too high.
We used to do the matchups if you go so we used to do like
Buffalo and Jacksonville at the same time.
I I do just want to talk about Alan while we have T law.
How what percentage do you have Alan?
Because what is their combined percentage is my question
because people are probably I don't know if people are going
to Alan. I have at 27 and so T law is
what, the third highest projected QB or 4th?
Yeah, third. 3rd 10% is a high number.
I don't think people realize how I think Lawrence comes in 5th.
I I think, I think he comes in below obviously May and Allen,
but I think, I think he comes in below Nix and Hertz.
If people are playing Allen, I don't think he comes in below
Nix, but he might be even with Nix.
I'll I'll get him even with Nix 'cause I wanted to raise Nix
anyway. Eight and eight, eight and eight
seems pretty fair for Lawrence. Yeah, 8 and 8 is how I'll do
that. I think Lawrence is a better
play than Knicks at the same ownership.
Personally. I think Lawrence is.
You think who's better than Lawrence?
I think Lawrence is a better play than Knicks at the same
ownership. I think Lawrence is a very good
play too, for sure. He's definitely a strong player.
I don't think the field is going to feel comfortable playing.
I I mean, Jackson was a very fun team, very popular.
Me and Sean are very bullish on him when we did our playoff show
a couple weeks ago. I don't think people are going
to be comfortable playing against the bills.
The quarterback against the bills in in in round one like
and and ETN is a a chalk play. You can still play Jacksonville
to win through ETN. You don't have to play Lawrence
by any means. I think it's psychology of of
people betting their whole term because if you if you draft your
quarterback and they go out in round one, it's over for you
feel gone. Yeah right.
Playoff knowledge. It's turn out the lights like so
like I, I think people, but now I I am not that afraid of
Buffalo, but I think that the market has given Buffalo a lot
of respect. They're Rd. favorites.
They're getting drafted very heavily on underdog.
I see people all the time saying that they're the best clicks
even on underdog at their current prices.
I think people will have a hard time picking a home dog
quarterback against the best player in the playoffs and then
hitching their whole wagon to that.
I just think that's difficult. I'm not saying I think that's
bad. I I like Lawrence.
I'm going to play him higher than his ownership.
But I I think psychologically it's hard to pin your whole
hopes and dreams on on the Jaguars.
It's a good point. It's a good point.
Yeah, that's a good point. You have to really believe in
the Jags and, and maybe there aren't that many people who do.
So I I think lowering it makes a lot of sense.
Any thoughts on this? It's not just a week one win.
It's a week one win and then going on the road at the
Patriots and and probably at the patriots right and then
upsetting. I tell you what, though, road
and then on the road, the Broncos probably.
I think Lawrence could be optimal in two because he gets
because here's why he gets the the Bills and then he gets the
Patriots. I guess it'll be 3.
He could be, but he's really strong to be optimal in in three
because then the Patriots would work.
Yeah, he needs three. He needs 3 but 3 is like you're
feeling great because he probably was in shout outs with
the Bills and Patriots and he knocked out the other two guys.
So then if even if he loses to the Broncos and and someone gets
4 from from next. Let's just, let's just go do
that. Let's do the bills right now.
Laughing. I mean if if Stroud gets there
then you. Let's do the bills because I
think these conversations are linked to Todd.
You think the the outcome? Speaking of the bills, how many
entries is Liam Murphy putting in this contest?
Because if it's higher than 1% of the total number of entries,
then Jack's heart fate is I have AI have a formula.
Actually, this 27 percent is built by in parentheses, Liam's
entries multiplied by an ownership.
Because then you got to raise that Jack's.
He was entering more than 1% of the content.
There's a variable of his number of entries.
The variable of how much Allen he's playing is just locked at
100%, but the variable is just the adjustable. 1 is how many
entries. Is it?
I think I agree that Allen should be a little bit lower
'cause I think the bill's skepticism is now the prevailing
opinion. I, I don't think it started out.
I I who like other like truly like other than memes, do you
know anyone who like basically I'll say this.
No one believes that I know that the Bills are a better football
team than the Jags. Everyone just thinks that Josh
Allen is Superman. But like these, Bills have lost
some bad games. Pat, my question is where was,
where were, where did you project Josh Allen and where did
he come in for the last couple of years?
I want to know those questions. Good question.
So last year Josh Allen I had at 50% and he came at 49%.
Fucking nailed it. Let's do Josh Allen the year
before projects him at 33%. He came at 34%.
Fucking nailed it. Let's go to Josh two years ago.
Hang on one more report. 48% in 2022 projected came in at 49%.
Fucking nailed it. That was a setup.
We've been planning that all day.
Hey, Pat, I'll ask you about your Josh Allen ownership.
You could duck it up 1%. I was at the 1% three years in a
row. 1 Allen. That's amazing.
That was. Great.
Alright, this guys the Allen Whisperer, so never mind.
Maybe 27%. Whatever you fucking are you
gonna show brother? Yeah, I'm trying to.
So what did you, what else did you have two years ago when you
had him in the 30s? What and what seed was he?
I I want to find the bracket from Allen.
They were two or the three. They were 26% to make the Super
Bowl that year. I'm not sure what seed they
were. Didn't have that in the
spreadsheet. Last year they were 29% to make
the Super Bowl. This year they are so the 17%,
the 1-2 years ago where you had him at 33, they were the two
seed, but KC was the three seed. They were gonna go heads up with
the Chiefs in the second round and they they did it only
playing two games and that's why people didn't want to play them
for a long. But he was optimal that year,
right? In two games.
I think he was optimal in two games that year.
Yeah, yeah, I think he was, he was a two seed the year prior or
or sorry, just last year and then the the three the year
prior. Yeah, he's been a two seed three
years in a row. So this is the first time that
he's not playing at home. And some of those games, like 3
years ago, he was playing Miami at home.
It was expected to be a shootout.
They ended up winning 3431. I mean, they've like basically
every year. They were the three seed.
The year prior, they had the 47 17 win over New England, where
Allen scored a ton of points in the first round.
There's always been this belief that Allen in the first round is
going to score like a ton of points in a blowout win.
They were two seed against Pittsburgh in the first round
two years ago and a two seed against Denver last year.
Won 31 to 7 a bat like a, you know, younger Denver team,
rookie quarterback all of those years.
You're like, OK, Allen's going to get a big score in the first
round. They're likely to advance all of
these things. That's not the case this year.
Like there's the half the Shorty won't stop telling us that we're
wrong about T law. He's said it like 75 times.
Well, not your opinion on that logged, but like the people that
they let me let me make one. Let me make one point on T law
because I think we covered some of the reasons that we don't
think T law is going to be chalk.
We do think he's a good play. I don't think he's be super
chalky, but one of the other reasons is that the Buffalo run
defense sucks. Everyone knows it sucks and
Etn's super comfy that way. So you can you can play
Jacksonville to win through ETN and feel really comfortable with
that. You have to really believe that
Jacksonville's going to make a run.
I think to take Trevor Lawrence, you know, at like A at a high
rate. So I think 8%'s probably close
to right. I could be a little low, maybe
11 or something, but I don't know.
He's like, I would be shocked if he's like 17% or something.
My point is this sentiment that you that Telock this other
commenter, says Telon, mayor of the QBs.
You have to play. A lot of people think Telog is a
guy you have to play because they like Jacksonville every
other year. With Allen, Buffalo was not just
the favorite in the first round, they felt like a lock to win
their first game and you got multiple games and you're going
to get a bunch of points out of Allen.
This is a year where a lot of the field doesn't think
Buffalo's going to win in the first game because they are on
the road. They're in a lower seed.
It would surprise me, I think, and because Cook is a comfy
click, it would surprise me if Alan came up to 27.
Well, you are the I guess Scott's Scott's making a a point
that in a roundabout way, saying Alan is way too high and Cook is
too high as well. Well, then I guess who are you
playing on? The bills aren't Well, are you
not playing a bill? Are you fading the bill?
I mean, I think I think it makes I think that the right play is
to be way overweight. Buffalo fade because if if they
lose in round one, Allen is not making the optimal it's actually
a great point in one game and if and if they lose in round one,
then the only game if the only player you're even worried about
is James Cook. They really don't have anyone
else that's that high scoring in A1 game scenario and you're
talking about a running back who doesn't catch passes against an
elite run defense. Fuck, how are we going to sell
Leone on this pat every year we've been overweight bills.
We got to beat every overweight I have.
I mean my here's the biggest thing to do is the bills fans
are riding to the rescue. So I am I am very hard fade
bills. I don't think the market's going
to do that though. I think the market is going to
see that as a pick up as a pick em game.
They're going to see 2 elite pieces.
They're. Going to?
There's no chance. And they're going to be more
comfortable fading the Jags. I'm going to fade the shit out
of the Bills, but I don't think it's a great offense to fade in
A1 and done. It is such a good offense to
fade in A1 and done. The only thing that matters is
the running back who doesn't even catch that many passes.
He's a rushing efficiency running back and they're spread
out as hell In the past game. It's actually you have to play
the kicker. It's not a team kicker.
The prater situation, I currently have it at 0%.
So I don't think anyone just like wants to mess with like
when you put in to mess with a hurt kicker, you have to put in
the right kicker and then end up being the wrong kicker.
Or if they replace the kicker with the guy you know who's
prater comes back or whatever, like you're screwed.
I don't think people are going to like what do you gain?
So I don't think people are going to do it right now.
But if that changes, I'll I'll obviously adjust it.
You might not be wrong on Allen if you're not Everything Jacob
just said is very right. If these are the numbers you
have to play the Bills fade. It's such a it's the best play
in the world. Well, if it plays this obvious,
then it's usually not this obvious.
So I'll probably raise the fade a little bit and Allen will come
down a little bit. That means we have additional
quarterback ownership. Do you think some of that goes
to May? Did you guys feel May was a
little low? I felt May was going to should
come up and and then Knicks and then Allen.
And maybe maybe T law does come up a little if if people are
willing to fade the bills, because Bill's hard fade will be
will be put with Lawrence at a decent rate.
I mean, I don't know, maybe I'm not I'm not like necessarily
going to be right. I just I do think that Allen the
past years Allen ownership stuff, although it's to be fair,
we don't have a Lamar in this field.
We don't have a Jane Daniels this year.
We do still have a Hertz. Allen was the Kiwi one in
scoring this year in points per game.
I swear to God, if I'm up, if I'm up by 2% on Allen for the
first time, I'm going to blame you guys.
I mean, Allen, Allen is still a good play if they advance, but
this is more than 1/4 of the field playing Allen.
I mean, that's a lot for a team that very well could lose in the
first round. They are slight.
My, my gut instinct was that like honestly, like I was like,
well, James Cook 61%. That feels insane but given the
context of the conversation of quarterback now I'm thinking 26%
for Allen seems insane. Like not saying that Pad's
ownership is wrong, that just like man playing Allen into that
chalk, you do have to have a Liam level belief that he can
just. You do because the other thing
is even if they win that game, they have to go on the road to
Denver. They got to go play another
tough defense. They got to.
They'll be on the road the whole time, yeah.
I mean, Allen could play three games and not be the quarterback
and he could play 2 games very easily.
Three games? No, that is totally plausible.
He hasn't been passing as much this year.
His rushing has been great, but if you get key to ease I I get
the ceiling on Allen is ridiculous, but Allen is
actually, in my opinion, more likely to be outscored by his
teammate in a long run. Then May is by his, then
Lawrence is by his then Knicks is by his, then Caleb is by his.
I, I still think people are going to play a lot of Josh
Allen because they're just going to see him as high as scoring
quarterback. But I, I agree that it's bad.
I I think that I think that his path is thin and there's a ton
of risk. But yeah, maybe people will be
remembering the I was writing up yesterday.
Maybe people will be remembering the nuclear, you know, Allen
playoff games in the past, but this this year, fewest passing
yards since the second season in 2019, fewest passing TD since
the second season in 2019. And I mean 25 passing TDs.
He's had no fewer than than 28 in all those years.
And and his good years are like up over 3536 hundred pass yards.
Like he he played all 17 games. I I guess he didn't he didn't
play the week 18. He played one snap.
Basically that was in 16 games. But his his passing numbers were
quite a bit lower this year. The rushing TDs and everything
were there. But if they go on a run and and
cook gets the touchdowns, it's I mean, Allen's scoring level was
not as like yeah, and May, I mean May, like I had May and
Alan on a dynasty team together and I it was 2 week
championship. I played May both weeks and
obvious and he I I would have lost if I didn't.
So yeah, May May is more comfy than Alan right now, I think
because the I mean, just to thinking about the first game,
right, They they're favored by more so.
And then you got to deal with the fact that he doesn't get the
Miami match up or the Pittsburgh match up or the like the clear
home victory. They're on the road against a
tough D in Jacksonville. Then if they do win, they're on
the road against a tough D in Denver.
Like if they if even if they beat Jaxville, they go lose to
Denver in a game where they don't play very good offense
because Denver's defense is that good.
And we're just talking about Denver.
If they win that, like Bonex isn't going to do anything.
They're going to win a low scoring game.
Like that's I like this thought experiment.
You went through 10 lineups and you can only choose Allen or
Tyler Trevor Lawrence as your quarterback.
How many of the 10 do you play Allen?
How many do you play T Law? Is that considering ownership or
like Pat's projected ownership or not?
I don't know if that Jewish McCaffrey has to answer that
question. I'm not sure.
I would assume you just. At current ownership, I'm going
9 Lawrence, 1 Allen. And without, without, without
considering. Ownership.
To me, without considering ownership I would.
Well, what we're all going to lose anyway?
Without considering ownership, I would go 5.
And five, sadly, I think. I was going to go 5 and I was
going to go 5 and 5 without. Consulting.
Ownership. What's that?
No, without ownership I 664 to Alan, Yeah, and I'd consider
7:00 to 3:00. I don't think we could do the
we're all going to lose bit anymore.
What would? You pick.
I just was. Straight I straight up I'm
picking the Jags in the game. Awesome.
I am too straight up and Bill, God damn it, I I I like
Jacksonville, the wins. This is a this is a good point,
Jacob. This is a good point.
That's why I was saying 55 because I because you have to
pick the game a little bit in your head.
The bills are favored by 1.5 points, for what it's worth, but
I would I would probably with ownership factored in, I would
be probably 8:00 to 2:00. But but Lawrence 7 to 7 to 3
Lawrence probably Lawrence has chalk on like Lawrence.
Well, so I mean, obviously Allen has cooked, but Lawrence also
has some good receiving weapons that that are gonna be played.
So I think I'm with Pat that I would be 6 four without
ownership, but I would be 82 Lawrence with ownership 7 three.
I don't know. I think I'm 73 but.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. All right, so this was one to
keep an eye on because maybe I'm a maybe I'm still too high on on
Allen. It's it's something I'm worth
that I'm, you know, willing to kind of and worth reconsidering
throughout the the week. But let's move on for now.
And we've now done the three seed on the AFC, but not on the
NFC. Let's go to the Eagles.
So I've got Jalen Hertz at 12. This is where some of the other
ownership's coming from. I have him above Lawrence.
I have him above Nyx I. Don't have to do that.
Feels pretty juicy at 6%. That's my that's my first
thought. Right.
You want to play him there. Yeah.
Yeah, I do too, I think. Brown.
Over over like yes, and it it no, I agree.
I mean, I'm also just going to be higher on the Eagles than
than the. Average fair.
My my issue is I just want to play every eagle like I think
every eagle of this ownership is a good except for Goddard.
I don't want any part of that, but I I would I would you don't
like I don't like fake touchdowns.
I love Barclay, even at 40 against the Niners.
Look at this guys. I nailed it.
Hurts down up, hurts like 3% I. Fucking love.
It the only guy like Goddard, I think I both wouldn't want to
play at 19 and I don't think he'll be 19, but but that's
because I think Barkley and Brown and Smith and Hertz are
like all really good plays. It just feels so flaccid to take
their tight end. But I I know you got you got to
take a tight end from somewhere. I only have a tight end 119.
Maybe he comes down a little. I did.
So I was looking at 4 force projections.
They have Goddard as the number. Where did it go?
Damn it, they have got hurt as the number 2 tight end for their
for their rankings, which which facts are in expected It's going
to be played. He's definitely going to be
played because he's the only other tight end that you're like
he's a good tight end than Kittle, but Kittle has CMC and
people don't aren't as excited about Barclay.
Obviously this year. It's just like you've got to
play a tight end. It's not comfortable to play the
rookie Colston Loveland. It is for all of us because
we're slappies. But yeah, because we're
slappies. It's not for other people.
It's really more comfortable to play gotter over like a bunch of
superstars than it is to play Hunter Henry over a split
running back, backfield and old Stephon Diggs.
I I just can't. These superstars have sucked
this year. The supervars have sucked, have
sucked, man. But they get the worst defense
in the whole tournament at home. Round one.
Yeah, true. But I mean, you can.
So does Goddard, so does her. And if they win, you know, and
if they win? Yeah, but like.
If if they win this week, like the defensive matchups are so
golden for them, like they get the Niners who have a horrible
defense round one. If they win this week, they're
either going to get the OR I shouldn't say they're either
going to they there's a 50% chance ish that they get the
bears, who are probably the second worst defense in the
whole tournament, or they have to keep pace with the Rams.
Like that's that's just so such a juicy spot that makes me want
to play their more interesting players rather than playing
they're like, I hope he catches A touchdown tight end.
I get it. I just I don't know.
That's that seems high to me, but maybe I'm maybe you're right
and I just think he's a bad play, but maybe I'm a touch
high. I I might because I don't I
don't think he's a good play here, which I don't either, but
I do think the sentiment on Goddard is significantly pretty
good. Yeah, than than Hunter Henry
just from like name value what their AD PS were going into the
year, what their AD PS had been for several years.
Like some of these like Shorty's saying this stuff again, like he
says, what Pat pieces non QB are comfier than AJ and Barkley.
I that's not the only relevant question.
You have a framework that you're thinking through it.
There's other frameworks that people work through.
And I, I mean, that would just be my point is, I think Goddard,
it's like a longer term name value thing that people are
going to want to play him some that and you need to play that.
I agree with that. If if anything, I I actually
think Pat might be a smidgen high on Hertz here like that.
That's my gut and sink. I would say more people believe
the way Jacob believes about Hurts.
Now these people are wrong, make no mistake about it.
But that is the sentiment. And the Eagles are closer to
their 2023 version of themselves and the 2024 version of
themselves where they are not viewed as this death marching,
tush push, suffocating. They're they're honestly,
actually, I think a lot of the way that people think of them is
kind of the 2024 chief. So it's like, sure, you won
these games, but you didn't dominate anyone.
You lost. You don't have the big spark.
I think they're the Titans that we were talking about that that
that 2021 Titans one seed that had Derrick Henry and A.J.
Brown on it. But also people wanted to fade
that team. Like that's what I think.
They're a run heavy team, but they weren't even that good.
Like what was the what was the Eagles ownership?
Death March. What was the?
Ownership for the, for these actual Eagles 2 years ago when
they also were like kind of limping in.
When they were limping in, he was only at 4% Hurts, but they
were really limping in 13% to make the Super Bowl that season.
They're I think 18% this year. And the other thing, 19%.
And the other thing that's really important between those
two years is that there's 68% to win this week.
And two years ago, 02 years ago, they were 60%.
So not a huge difference. But yeah, I think the we did in
the interim see them, you know, marched and win the Super Bowl.
So I I think there's like potentially more optimism on
them recapturing that form in the playoffs.
Fair. There's yeah, maybe a little
high, but no, the other the other massive thing is there's
no Lamar Jackson like we the last couple years it's been
Lamar and Josh Allen have been our chalk Q BS and Josh Allen is
not a two seed again, right like Jalen Hurts.
When you tell yourself a story of who's making a run in the
NFC, the Eagles are a very easy team to tell yourself that story
on there, Patrick said they're 68% to win this week.
Then they go to Chicago if Chicago wins, or else they.
Host. If the Packers win, they get to
host the next round and then what?
They got to beat the Seahawks. Like Sam Darnold's going to
really go and beat the defending champs.
I mean, people have already chalked the Eagles up as going
back to the Super Bowl as the the sharp team that no one's
actually playing or whatever in a in a wide open, it's wide open
this year, right? Everyone would agree with that.
And you can kind of you can pick your team to go to the Super
Bowl. The other angle that's the key
here beyond just double points in the Super Bowl and one of the
things that gets brought up year after year in the tournament is
four games from your quarterback with one of them counting
double. Can you find the team that goes
to the Super Bowl? And that's why everyone wanted
Allen as the two seed. That's why everyone wanted Lamar
when he when he was in that spot.
Hertz is that QB this year. Hertz is that QB, right?
Like Hertz, Hertz is going to, I mean, if you're a 49ers fan or
if you believe in that offense enough to overcome the, the
defense, sure, the 49ers can win that game.
But I think most people are picking the Eagles to win that
game. And like you're saying, it
could, it could set up pretty well for them in Round 2.
They go into Chicago. That feels a very winnable game.
You know, now they're the championship.
You're already live for him to be optimal in three.
And then if if the Eagles get to the Super Bowl, you're like, and
then Barkley has not been, I mean, Barkley was 69% owned last
year after the season he's had. I have him way down from that at
42. I think a little bit of that
goes to Hertz where it's like, hey, if I'm betting on the
Eagles to make a run, why don't I bet on Hertz and get my
quarterback to get four games, including the double point Super
Bowl? That's why that's how I got to
this. I think your Hertz ownership is,
is, is good. Yeah.
I think all your ownership here
is good. I think it's a strong, yeah,
that's a strong group. We're still we're still not 50%
of the way through. We're we're getting close,
really close. Yeah, we're close to 50% now
four seed in the NFC is the Panthers.
So let's. Well, this will be this will be
quick. This will be quick.
Let's we're gonna make up some time.
I'll I put it in the private chat.
I gotta go. It's like 10 minutes.
I didn't realize it's gonna take 3 hours.
I'm sorry, but but Hertz is great at that ownership, by the
way. I love people.
People are saying he's way too high.
He's way too low. I do think that hurts.
He's about right. I think I think your Panthers
ownership is right on the money. You're fat.
Good job. All right, McMillan will get
played some, but he's going to anybody going to play Rico
Dowdle? Rico Dowdle.
Would be kind of a. Yeah, like a a person or 2A.
Couple of people. I think a little.
It's a little, it's a little spot on here.
And and I think you could argue like, dude, they're 10 1/2 point
dogs. They're not.
If they win, it's going to be so annoying.
Like I, I, I think he's not going to.
Win him let's let's go to they're not going to win so
let's talk about the team that's going to beat them.
So I have Stafford at 8 so he's in that mix now Stafford,
Lawrence Nicks all at 8 kind of the feels high feels high for
Stafford. There's been a lot of Stafford
love in the chat as we've gone tonight.
I'm going to correct myself in Stafford love as well.
I think it's too high, but I keep people keep telling me
they're like, man, I think Stafford's the play this year
and I don't agree with them, but I do keep hearing it.
I think it's kind of crazy cuz I think that again, his Super Bowl
path with such a superstar teammate against all of these
AFC quarterbacks who have way inferior teammates to Puka
without any rushing touchdown upside.
Like I think it's thin and I don't like Stafford at that
ownership, but I haven't seen these numbers yet.
But I think Stafford is too high and not I'm not correct myself.
What Jacob is. I think this is wrong for the
projected ownership. I think he's gonna come in below
this. I think Puka is gonna come in
above this. There's I, I don't think enough
people are going to talk themselves into Stafford being
the the pick over puka in a long run.
If you tell yourself, dude, I heard a bunch of Adam's love
today. It it definitely I so Adam's
over puka. I I actually can't understand
because they're going to say that Adam scores all the TV's.
But yeah. You still plan to receive, but
if you're coming, I'll get feedback into my barter point
again where it's like, I don't want to bet against like I don't
want to bet against puka between the 20s.
Pooka fucking dominates these fools.
Like the biggest advantage Adams and Kyron have is at the goal
line. So I'm less.
I'm just gonna play Pooka 8%. I feel about France for some of
the people in the chat for reference, because I don't need
to tell you guys this, but 8% is a high number for a quarterback.
It's a pretty strong number. There's fourteen teams.
Like at the end of this, we usually go by position.
And again, if we sort of by position right now, I think you
have T Law at 8 now, but you had Bo Nicks lower than 8%.
That's crazy to me that you had Stafford at 8, Nicks at six, for
example, what Stafford has. I hope that's right.
That's that's not the way the field's going to play it.
Well, I mean. I wouldn't play it like that
either, but I've just heard Stafford be touted like so much.
No, it seems like people think with you, I'm with you both
simultaneously. Like I think it's insane that
who's touting in my first run. Is it people that are doing like
2 of their own entries and are not that serious about the
tournament? Or is it people that are playing
the tournament really heavily and and I'm not I'm not, I'm not
sure which. I'm not sure that is a fair
question because sometimes people are like, Oh, I got a
great idea about this and I'm like, you're not even playing
the tournament. You're making one team.
Like that's a good point Bev that Stafford might have
disproportionate ownership and the phone shitter contingent.
Exactly. And that's 2% that's not 8%.
The eight. I want to know like the the
people that are actually like for real.
Pepper feels incredibly inevitable.
I did Stafford on one and Puko on 9.
Stafford feel inevitable. You can only play one player
from a team. Puka feels inevitable.
Puka Nakua do you guys? Do you know about a player named
Puka Nakua? Got.
Inevitable when I do. Have you know, I do have no
question Matthew Stafford, Dan Orlovsky.
Dan Orlovsky is, is, is, Yeah. I I got AI got a question for
you guys that might change this conversation a little bit and
I'm sure you guys will know this, but with Devante Adams
active and healthy, do does anyone want to state the number
of touchdowns that Puka Nakua scored in games that Adams
played? Probably like 4, probably like
4. How many games?
5 How many games total? Would have been 14 games 14.
No, because Puka missed one of those himself and he left early.
Another one. So really 12, I'm getting
Lawrence up to 10% now. He left in the second quarter.
That's a classic Davis Maddock. Technically true, but highly
misleading statement. Yeah, but maybe I'm wrong.
It's. The type of statement that is
going to sway people playing this tournament.
So yeah, David is much more in touch with the boomers than I
am. I'll, I'll, I'll concede.
That that's So what I what I'm telling you is that that for the
boomer mind, the Safeway to play the Rams is Matt Stafford.
Yeah, so, Pat, I just said very definitively I thought 8 was
wrong. And now I'm like, I mean, people
forget he's the MVP. He gets there every game.
Stafford 4 TDs to four different tight ends in the Super Bowl for
double points. Like people are going to tell
themselves that story. The tight end thing, I man,
maybe I'll do. I mean, I'll do.
Dirko said it. People could lean into the
mobile tight end thing of of the really, really high owned
players in this tournament, Puka's the one that I think I'll
actually play higher than what I project his ownership to be.
Well, I think I think Adams is going to get played and I just
want to play Puka. Give me puka.
Yeah, but I but I do think Adams gets played.
I don't think Adams is like sub 10.
No, that's true. So I think Puka's actually
pretty good chalk, if even, you know, if he's at 70.
I think he will be though. I think, I mean Davis just Davis
just leaned into the the the boomer TD narrative.
He just gave us the stat of how many touchdowns Puka scored it
out. Davis knows Davis.
You think Kyron's a little high? Like does Kyron come in even
lower than this? No, I think boomers like.
Running Quorums. Quorum's healthy.
He he came back in the Week 18 game with the ankle.
You know, I could. I could see.
I could see Kyron. I think the FFPC boomers love
Kyron Williams. Do the tight ends get played at
all? It's just too messy because.
Maybe a one, but I doubt it. They're not even getting drafted
in like, like in like playoff basketball stuff.
They're like in the 50s, like they're barely getting picked.
Yeah, because you can't even pick which one of them.
No. Yeah.
I, I had Parkinson at 1:00 and then I just took it out.
It's it's like nothing, nothing can possibly feel worse than
like I've I've decided to fade puka.
I've also Kyron at 8 atoms and I might not even pick the right
tight end. Like that?
That feels awful. Yeah, Kyra Korum should not be
played like Korum is a horrendously bad play in this.
But but it does make me that kind of makes me wonder if the
Korum will be if you're playing a tight ends, you're taking
staff for inside it. Yeah, that's a good point.
Yeah. Yeah.
You don't need the running back this year.
I like at all in in the lineup. So I don't think I think Karen
Karen might even be a little. I'm going to get Karen to six
and and Puka to 70. 1. Yeah.
Because I guess I don't think if you're playing Rams to win and
it's not puka, right? If you're playing Rams to lose
and it's not puka, you play Adams.
If you're playing Rams to win and it's not puka, you play
Stafford. I think so, yeah.
I think yeah, Kyra might even be 5 all.
Right. What other team we got here?
All right. We are going to go to Niners.
No, I think we need to go to the the Steelers and the Texans.
OK, right. Go back over there and see I've
I've got to run. I'm sorry, I did not realize I
would get through 50% of this in an hour for you.
But I also the reason for that because I talked about Bonex for
a year so. I love you.
Guys, I will be tuning in for the rest of this.
I'll be tuning in for the rest of the show and hope to see you
guys at the top of the leaderboard.
See you guys later. If possible, can you make a
chart for tomorrow? No.
Great. Pat has too many gauntlets left
to draft. Not going to be making a chart.
But threat? But that's a good reminder that
you can get this ownership over at Legendary Upside or in the
ship chasing. As a ship chasing member, you
sign up for the the premium YouTube membership, which you
should do yeah, if you do that, you can make the discord yeah,
you can make the own chart. You can make your own chart with
with with the percentages that will.
Be available to you. On the spreadsheet that I share
with you. All right, So Pittsburgh, any
any thoughts here? I mean, I did hear people
talking about Gainwell a little bit.
I got him up to 8%. Gingwell's kind of a a guy you
play in a loss. I was gonna say, he's so good in
a loss. And yeah, I mean, he's fun.
I I I guess it makes sense for Boswell to be the chalk.
That's a. Lot from a loss.
Well, because so I was thinking about this, we were, we started
talking about this on our, our ADP chasing the other day.
And it's like you actually, because my gut instinct was
Texans D or Fairbearn. And the chat was like, oh, dude,
come on, Fairbearn. Like it's all, it's all
Fairbearn, right. And but the, the Texans, like
we, we could see the Texans. I mean, Corinne and I filled out
our bracket the other day and it's like, I don't know, pretty
freaking easy for them to get to the AFC Conference Championship,
in which case you're really going to have wanted to add Nico
or or because you have to use a tight end.
Schultz. Which this is a long way to get
there too. I actually completely see it
with Pit D and Boswell and Fade. But why not just a heart fade?
Because it's a it's over under that's under 40.
Why would Boswell be in? Well, people like Boswell, man.
People like Boswell, yeah. People like Boswell and.
So bad on Boswell last year, like Boswell I think might have
been my biggest miss, but he was the kick.
We talked about this last night. He was the overall #1 kicker in
the regular season. Last year was not this year was
not this year was Bear Baron was bear Baron was who I have
ownership one because yeah, I think I think there's going to
be stuff where people go like Gainwell Texans D and are
playing for the Texans to win running back versus the D you're
soft fading. You're running back in our I
think people will do that. I think there will be teams that
soft. Fade and.
The Texans I'll play this both ways.
I'm playing this both ways. I'm playing this both ways.
I got the GSTI think the Texans D is to to a level.
I'm just bringing the Texans here.
I think the Texans D people are excited about now.
They're also excited about Fairbairn.
I have the DA little higher. Yeah, Fairbairn, immediate gut
call. Here's Fairbairn.
Looks low to me. Where does it come from?
So like here, so it comes from. What's a high number?
First, first thing is you, you as you guys were just mentioning
with Boswell, you have to account for when people know
these guys's names. Fairbairn, Fairbairn being a
like and and he had a crazy good fantasy season.
Yes, he did. Speaking.
Yes, he did. Not kicking at Heinz Field,
kicking indoors and NRG Stadium. Also, I mean, to to the to the
people who want to do this. Texans D was the right play last
year with Mcconkey on the other side.
So like there's it's not like it couldn't work.
It could work. It did work.
It literally worked last year. I think I just for the record,
Marx to me just seems awful. It's like he sucks dude.
He just he's. Really bad at football.
I've been kind of picking on Shorty and he goes best play on
the slate, 5% when he was like great.
We just have different opinions on everything.
That's fine, we can. You made I like shorties.
Getting shorties opinions because they're not like ours
and I'm trying to figure out where people are gonna do.
No, people are going to want to play Marks.
Marks. People like to project marks.
Every week he scores less than his projection, but we just keep
projecting him the same amount and pretending that he's
something other than what he is, which is a non prospect as a
rusher that they're using as a rusher.
He was a receiving prospect, caught 22 passes all year.
They don't actually throw to their back CJ Stroud and the way
that he plays quarterback, he doesn't check down a ton.
They use a goomba wall in some of the obvious pass downs.
Marks doesn't actually catch passes, which is his one skill
set. Has no profile as a missed
tackle force guys as a college player or this year as a rookie.
Breakaway run rate as a prospect player five years or as a
rookie. Didn't get volume ever as five
years as a as a runner. You're the teams that had him in
college, they threw to him a ton.
They didn't run him, but the Texans did for some reason and
got terrible results. He's got like a 3.5 yards per
carry, terrible yards after contact every year in college.
None of it is translating to the pros.
They got Jawar Jordan out up there for like a little bit and
he was better than him immediately and they've been
using him a little bit since Marks came back.
I I think they're going to use Marks more than Jordan.
This is a team that clearly did not expect Joe Mixon to not play
all year. And this was the best they could
do because they also had Nick Chubb and they didn't have a lot
of flexibility with the different running backs.
They've been playing Marks. This guy's a non prospect.
He called him the Acres play. Acres was a prospect, dude.
No, there is an Acres play and it's not It's not Woody Marks.
The Acres play references when we one of my favorite plays a
few years ago was when the Rams were playing, I think the
Seahawks and everyone was fading the Rams.
The Rams were getting overly faded relative to to their odds
of winning the game because the offense was kind of gross.
And I guess did they not have cup?
I don't even remember, but but Acres was ended up being a
pretty strong play. I don't think.
I think with the pre cup you you really liked the anchors and you
really liked the the path. If they won their second round
matchup was likely to be another good like run matchup.
And you were like there's gonna it's gonna be a really good two
game slate of like run matchups. And it's exactly the way it
played out. It was just like a super good
call on the way the bracket would play out and and where the
the production would come from in the Rams offense.
But the this team doesn't run at that time.
Yeah, at that time, Akers was kind of potential like the
engine of the offense to their victories.
And I just don't. I have such a hard time seeing
Woody Marks go. Look at Woody Marks's game log.
He hasn't scored more than like 16 PPR points since that one
game against the Texans when the Texans were quitting on their
coach and got completely shut out.
And both of Titans, both of the Titans, both of his touchdowns
were in the fourth quarter of that game.
He had 120 point game. Since then has not scored more
than I think 16 PPR points and has more games like in single
digits than even in the like 15 to 16 range.
Ton of really bad games and they're winning every game by
the way, they're in plus script every week and he still can't
score 10 PPR points. If you think, by the way that
Houston D or Fairbairn is a jam, you're like, and and you're
right, like that could be a a move.
I don't I think they split. I think they cannibalize each
other because some people are just going to love Fairbairn and
some people are going to love Houston D They're both like
pretty strong ways to get a lot of points at that position.
Of course I have Houston at 34% total fade.
That's really high for a team that that has 18% chance to get
to the Super Bowl. That is higher than Buffalo.
That's higher than Jacksonville by 4%.
That's just behind the Eagles and the Patriots.
I I mean Jacksonville, I have getting faded some because you
know, we talked about with Buffalo and and everything, but
Houston, I have higher than all of those teams.
I have them higher than Chicago, who only has a 10% chance to
make the Super Bowl. I have them almost equal with
the with the Packers, who only have a 9% chance to make the
Super Bowl. I think people fade the Texans
too much. So I mean that would actually be
an argument for Woody Marks, right.
But I think Nico isn't too low in the ownership projection as
Shorty Vegas pick just said, because one, I think people do
play Schultz. You need to get some tight end.
It's going to be somewhat spread out and two people fade the
Texans with the with the defense in Fairburn.
If Woody Marks is a good play in this tournament and that whole
rant was for nothing, I'm going to going to be so bad 'cause he
can like running backs can score points.
It does like it. It can happen.
I mean, he is in the Joe Mixon camp where his like I, I sure
he's saying his expected fantasy points regression.
The issue is is that there has to be no no model that I know of
adjust for this, but there has to be some kind of when you fail
to convert from the 2 yard line, then you fail.
You don't get another expected. Then you fail to convert again,
you get all the expected fantasy points.
There the the other thing is, it's not.
It's not always regression when you're worse than.
This is too much Woody talk. Respectfully, he's he's.
He's a non prospect that's been worse than expected and then
you're like, well, he's got to be average.
No, he doesn't have to be average.
His profile suggests that he's not an average NFL running back.
In fact, he's meaningfully below average.
We should have expected below average efficiency from that
player. And like, it's not yes, what's
what's regression to what mean? Like, that's what I want to ask,
not listen. If you want, if you want Woody
Marks, then draft some gauntlet teams before it closes because
you can get him. This is why I'm so passionate.
I promise. I'm going to.
I I'm, I'm dreading. I think I'm going to have to
have a conversation with Leone about Marx at some point.
He's going to want to play him. We're going to he might.
He might doubt him. Yeah, well, yeah, it's like if
you're who do we have, if you're specifically betting on the the
Texans to make the Super Bowl and you've already built a team
that reflects that with Nico Collins, right.
And you're going to add Stroud and Schultz and Higgins and
whatever and the gauntlet, then I think what he marks is pretty
great because you're that team's going to be in Super Bowl.
But if yeah, if in this tournament, I don't think he's a
great play. He's fine.
I think he's he's probably fine at 5%.
He's probably fine. Yeah, Anything.
It's not the worst play in the world, but I just like he, he
should be a good play and he's not because he doesn't actually
score any points anyway. The Steelers are, I think
Boswell's high here, but otherwise seems fun.
I think it's more hard fade Pittsburgh and Boswell's a
little high. That's what I think.
And I, I what you, you have the Texans that are really high fade
#2 and I was listening to that like way higher than their
actual percentage. But they aren't a fun offense,
right? Like, and that does they,
they're, they're gonna come in lower than their odds to get to
the Super Bowl simply because people don't like their offense.
It's just the way that it is. It's not just how this is
probably how it works for sure. That's certainly part of how it
works. It's tough because Houston and
Pittsburgh are both not fun offenses.
Pittsburgh is an even less fun offense.
And so we may get the double saw fade and that kind of thing in
this game. I don't know what dicker is
that, but up at 5%. Go ahead, The kicker.
The kicker 5%. Yeah, do.
You like to undo the chargers. Yeah, cuz we already did the
bill so we can close out the AFC.
With the Chargers, let's do it. So let's do that.
So Hampton, I think you have to throw a wrinkle in because
there's a real chance that he does not play this weekend.
And if he doesn't play, I would guess the fade goes up.
I would also guess the lad Mcconkey.
And see, I would think, I would think, don't you think one of
ladder Gadsden, particularly Gadsden.
Gadsden to me feel like just my gut.
This I guess. I don't know if you count me as
a boomer or a slap, but my first instinct was Gadsden could just
rack up like 8 for 65 in a shit canning by the Chargers.
Lads coming up from this number, Gadsden's coming up from this
number. I also think Quentin Johnson's
catching at least like 2%. All right, this.
Is 1. I kind of, I got to this and I
was like, I can't even. There's nothing.
I mean, there's nothing you can. Do I don't even know what to do
because either Hampton's way too low or Hampton's way too high.
But yeah, let's I think Hampton's got to come down with
the injury to like 28, Johnson up to like 2.
Mcconkey's got to go up or maybe even lower.
Yeah, 25 if he can go that far. But I think Johnson's, yeah,
Keenan, maybe it's too high at 4.
Maybe he's 3. Like he's not.
I think so. I think Keenan's actually semi
company. Yeah.
But that looks better. What is what is the chat saying
here? LAD 4%, but I don't know which
direction. Yeah, I that's I was going to
ask, what does that mean? QJ Zero.
We got that. Oh yeah, he's saying the other
direction. LAD 4, Macmillan 10, DK 10.
I mean, yeah, there's like Mr. Brad here says, I like QJ, most
of the flex guys. What if QJ finishes the season
like he started? I mean, I think Quinton Johnson
has the highest ceiling, Gadson's the TD equity, Laddas
Laster's game in people's mind. Keelan feels like dust.
I think people think Keenan's dust.
But. For sure, yeah.
Keenan's 01 Keenan Keenan like nothing.
I'm taking the over on 01 on Keenan guys.
OK, got to remember who we're dealing with.
I'm taking the over on 01 touted on some podcast I've heard.
Keenan touted I've I've heard. Dude, dude, I.
I'm here to get his incentives. They had incentives in Week 18
that they that they, they said they should have paid him the
money, you know, rather than risking his health because he's
their best receiver.
Yeah. I think he'll get played.
He is their TD guy. I mean, he's their Devante Adams
in a minor way. Yeah, not like plate a ton.
But I, I don't think that people are just going to X out Keenan.
Keenan needs 12 targets to get 60 yards.
We are not the people that drafted Keenan, right.
How much Keenan do you have in basketball?
I don't have very much. I don't I don't trust my yeah,
my desire to put Keenan at at one is I think is is incorrect
for projecting what the field will be.
This is it. This is an incredibly tough one.
I mean, even just looking at the chats, they have a lot of
different opinions, a lot of whatever it seems like everyone
likes somebody at a certain number like they're if if you're
inclined to like, you know, quit Johnston, you're going to like
him at 2%. Gatson, you're going to like him
at 4% lad, you're going to like him.
You've bumped a lot all the way to 8 now.
He was at 4. But I think I've seen all the
different comments that have been like, oh, that guy's too
low, That guy's too low, That guy's too low, which tells you
that it is going to be spread like people, people have their
preference in this spot. And you're, you're saying people
like Keenan boomers do not swear by 4 points per game.
They they swear by targets. And and do they, Yeah, they
sort, they sort by target. Targets is no.
I feel like, I feel like that is not what boomers do.
No, it's targets. Targets.
They love targets. Look at crack rock, the PPR.
That's all. Even crack rock loves target.
It's true. This is, this is our.
This is our. I would need I would need 5000
like JMCI would need 5000 lineups before I got to a
Herbert. 5000. I just think they're so they're
so dead in this game and it's not even honestly, it's not even
Justin Herbert's fault. It's just like they have no
offensive line. They they have guys.
Targets aren't you have to be safe talking fair.
There's other sites they sort on all right.
They just have dudes coming off the freaking streets.
I do like 1%, Herbert. There you go.
There's your 1%.
Yeah. What would you do you guys like?
I think, I think Hampton honestly might be the might be
the Acres play. Oh, I like it.
He does patriots. The thing is is he gets the PPR
scam. I like it.
Well, but Acres was like 10%. What made what made the Acres
play is he was like 10%. Yeah, well, everyone's yelling
at me at 25% is too high. And they might be right in part
'cause he didn't practice. Also, Acres and the Rams won
you. You're picking Hampton, you're
picking the Chargers to upset the pitch.
The Chargers are live to win this game.
Like I, I'm obviously I, our portfolio won't reflect the
Chargers winning this game, you know, a ton.
But like in certain line UPS, I want to consider that the
Chargers beat the Patriots for sure.
Yeah. I didn't.
Quit Johnson's a really good play at 2%.
I'll make him 3 then. I mean, he's just he's the type
of guy that if you're playing him in a loss, you're like,
well, he's the one that caught the long TD.
So he's I like you. Keep up being lad.
I don't who wants to play lad Mcconkey this year?
He's been dog shit. He's been bad for a second.
I was thinking I was on steel penis lab.
I mean, you're you're probably right.
I I don't know. I'm trying to figure out where
to put this Hampton ownership. That's going to go somewhere, I
guess somewhere to go to the it'll go to the kicker.
It'll go to fade. It might go to fade.
It might go to QJ, just like I don't know.
I would have him closer to lad. You you when when you bumped QJ,
you bumped lad by even more and like I'm trying to get those
guys closer and you're like the the gap is widening.
But that's the only reason I brought up lad.
That was what I was thinking. Yeah.
No, that's that's fair. I'm going to do.
I'm going to leave it like this for now.
QJ over LAD. Higher ceiling.
Gretch is right about QJ. Yeah.
All right, I'll. I'll bring LAD down and bring.
LAD has not gotten more than 50 receiving yards since Week 10.
That's so gnarly. Yeah.
That's crazy, yeah. Yeah. 133912. 20 There's,
there's how we got, there's how we got more dicker.
There's how we got more dicker. Oh.
God, this is so great. Oh, this game log, dude.
And Quinn Johnson just caught a long TD like the other week,
right? I mean, most of it was earlier
in the year, but didn't he have something?
Yeah, stick with the kicker, man.
It's happening. Johnston has one O 4 and 98 in
his last two games. He's got more points, more yards
in his last two games than Mcconkey's got in two months.
Yeah, K does. FFPCFFPC doesn't have easily
checkable game logs, right? Like it's, if this was on
DraftKings and you could just click on the name and get the
game log, but you can't do that. So I, I, I'm on, I'm on board
with the, I mean, 5% Keenan is still still a bit high, but oh,
OK. FFPC does easily and, and it
does have targets. According to Mac Nova, the FFPC
game log does have targets. Nice.
OK. All right.
What?
Who else do we have in the NFC? Over on the NFC side, we did
Carolina. We haven't done Green Bay yet.
Green Bay, I think. Green Bay's A.
Crazy and and San Francisco. We still need to do San.
Let's do San Francisco first. Yeah.
That should be pretty quick. Man, it just feels like so I I
Karina, I think you're right. The only thing is, is with tight
end being just so. Right.
Nah. Do we see a little bit of extra
portioning from CMC to Kittle than we would in a normal year
for them? It's a good question.
I was thinking no. And then as soon as you've
pulled that up, I was like, I want to play George Kittle at
that number. They're 4 1/2 point dogs.
And and even if McCaffrey outscores Kittle, he can be the
the tight end for all the reasons we talked about.
McCaffrey has a 20 point game, Kittle 15.
They lose. Kittle's probably the tight end,
Mccaffrey's probably not the running back of that number,
right. So in a loss, I think people are
just going to be very, very happy with McCaffrey.
Just be happy to have McCaffrey. It's like a ton of balls.
They're in a lot like Kenny Gainwell in a loss.
But you can. But it's McCaffrey and I think
you can figure out tight end. I think very most lineups are
not going to play 2 tight ends. Most lineups are going to play
one tight end. So you're going to go, OK, I can
go get Colton Loveland, Dalton Schultz, Brenton Strange, Dallas
Goddard, Hunter Henry. One of those tight ends is
probably going to feel better than not playing McCaffrey and
playing George Kittle. I took most people, you know.
Yeah, that's why I think I think McCaffrey comes in very, very
high because of the yeah, Kittle is the hot play, actually Shorty
base pick. That's that's a good call.
That's right. Would you agree, Ben?
Yeah, no, I think he's a great play.
I think he's a good play. He's like the Hawkinson
Jefferson play, right, 'cause in in a loss, McCaffrey could have
a bad game. He could have some type of like
tweaked injury or something. We know he has some kind of like
soft tissue issues occasionally. They could just get like really
like fixated defensively could could really fixate on
McCaffrey, whatever. There's a lot of ways that like
if San Fran's offense doesn't go well, it's because they're not
able to get McCaffrey going. And then it also benefits
Kittle. And then you get, that's what
happened when with the Vikings last year, Jefferson was having
a great year, but they the Rams just took Jefferson away
basically. And as a result, the only thing
they could get going was a little bit of Hawkinson over
here and he ends up catching ATD.
They had, they both had like 5 catches, but Hawkinson got the
TD and he ends up being the obvious.
I mean, Kittle's a really nice pivot.
If McCaffrey has a bad game, it's possible McCaffrey could
have a bad game. By the way, Jefferson that year
was was a smash, had a smash season, much like McCaffrey just
did for fantasy. I had them projected 69% came in
78%. So I don't I don't know.
I mean, McCaffrey and Jefferson, I was saying are exactly the
same situation. But this type of play like
that's this comfy tends to just get played.
Kittle's probably a better pivot than Hawk, who I had projected
at 5 and came in at 5. People just faded that game.
I don't think people there's there's been some stuff like,
oh, you, you just fade this game.
OK. You know, you fade this game
when you come back around and you're about to put Ted McMillan
in. I think you, I think you play
CMC or Kettle. So I think a lot of people are
going to start with the idea they fade in this game and
they're not going to do it because it's going to be it's
going to be a much more uncomfortable lineup when you're
literally just not playing CMC, who obviously can like crush in
a loss like that. He absolutely can do that.
You know, this is this is our audience that tends to think
pivot. Draco says Kittle Omega smash at
at 14%. We had no Kittle, no money.
Kittle is a huge smash here. Obviously Shorty was saying it's
the Ferguson and Hawk play. There's a lot of people looking
at this saying you have to play Kittle at this number.
Does that mean that he comes in higher from that perspective?
I mean, you just were explaining.
I don't I, I mean, this is 1 I feel pretty good about to be
honest. I it's not that I don't think
Kittle's a good play. I think he's a really good play.
I think CMC is going to be like you look at like, you know,
playoff projections and stuff seem and you look at where you
know, CMC's going at like the one O 2 and the gauntlet.
I'll tell you where, I'll tell you where some Kittle comes
from. And we've been, we've been
wanting to know which KBS to bring down.
Purdy 4% when they're 4 1/2 point dogs.
No one thinks the Niners are making that long of a run.
And even if they do, they want to play McCaffrey.
How does he get 4% Purdy's 2% Purdy.
No one thinks the Niners are making a run.
They're big dogs. I wonder, I wonder if you see, I
was going to say, I wonder if you see fade or kicker come up a
little bit. That might be possible.
Maybe 2% from Purdy goes there. I don't think Purdy's even a 2%
QB, honestly. He scored a lot down the
stretch. He was a fantasy playoff hero.
But you people want to play McCaffrey or they want to play
Kittle and it's so and and then also they want to play QB who's
making a run. And this is not a team that
looks like they're going to make a long run.
They have a really low percent chance of winning the NFC based
on the odds. Who's getting Kittle 24%?
I would like take, which is the comment we had here.
I would take like hard, hard under.
I just don't think people get there.
No, yeah, that's the same. Seasons is never under, is never
under 70. Yeah, yeah.
I think party might be a 1%, but 2% I, I think, I think, I don't
know, I think there's enough people.
I mean, he's, he's scored really well and you know, it's
possible. So is it possible in the Super
Bowl? Is is enticing.
Wouldn't you just play McCaffrey if you were if you were taking
them? They're 4 1/2 point favorites.
They're one of the bigger underdogs this weekend.
They're the second biggest underdog.
So it's, I mean, it's possible to make a run, but if you're
like, well, it's not likely they make a run.
And even if they do, I just want McCaffrey or it gives me more
outs. Like people love their outs.
You know, the Niners have the same odds to win the Super Bowl
as the Chargers. The only team two years, two
years ago, I had him at at 2% because he wasn't, I didn't
think he was a very good play. He came in at 5:00.
So that was with obviously CMC and Kittle and and Debo and Debo
you get was more spread and there's more spread.
But I mean, I think that's yeah, let me see, let me see where
McCaffrey came in that year. What was McCaffrey was at 79%
that year 2020? That was the 2020, the three
season. Yeah. 2023-2024 NFL playoffs on
Wikipedia. What was their?
Kittle was barely played that season.
People people. He was at 3%.
They were the number one seed. Dude.
They had a buy. They were and they went to the
Super Bowl. They were likely to go to the
Super Bowl. I mean, I think that's a way
different thing than being 4 1/2 point underdogs on the road
against the defending champs. I.
Mean it. It obviously is less.
Likely to play CMC though. Like I feel like as a dog you
almost want CMC more because you're like all right well I
just get 27 PPR scam points and then they're done.
The more likely. I'll get pretty 1 and Kittle to
18. Yeah, I, I, I think, I think
that Gretch is, is accurate there.
I think this is a good point from our Guy Fuller here, but I
would say that in any other contest, but in this contest,
when you can only take 1 Niner and it's you want McCaffrey and
if you don't have McCaffrey, you really want like we're having a
hard time. We everyone in the chat wants us
to get higher on Kittle, but we can't because of McCaffrey.
Who the Hell's playing Purdy? You know what I mean?
Like that's it's just because you can only play 1 Niner.
I do think because he won people their championships, that in
other contests like it, he gets bumped for sure.
But in this contest, there's so much constraint on the Niners.
That's also why I think you're right about the fade.
Some of the chat was saying you should bump fade.
I don't think they're gonna fade the Niners.
Even when they play the Niners, man, they're gonna play
McCaffrey or they're gonna fill tight end with Kittle.
That's the pivot. You don't fade both McCaffrey
and Kittle to full fade the Niners.
Why would you do it? I don't.
Think well 'cause. You would if, if McCaffrey and
Kittle were gonna be close and they were kind of you're, you're
fading 2 chalk pieces, but they're not gonna be close,
right? People think Kittle's this
really great leverage play that you don't have to like, I even
think Jennings at 2% is, I mean, I'm not going to tell you to
take all the riff raff out here. You got 4% on the kicker.
And I think McCaffrey, Kittle, they're not going to come in at
100%, but they're going to be in a lot of freaking lineups.
You've got to have a lot of lineups.
And and this is a this is a contest where you kind of have
like you have license to to play, to not fade the 49ers
because you can just play Kittle.
And maybe I'm a little low here, but again, I would take the
under on like 2425% on Kittle because people are just going to
I want to play McCabe. I would play.
It's so hard to come off McCaffrey.
I don't think he's a bad player. It is so definitely.
Definitely not. And even if you come off
McCaffrey, like the only reason you're doing it is because, like
the tight end position's so hard and then Kittle becomes the if
you're off McCaffrey, Kittle becomes the Loctite end play,
does he not? Like it's so hard to come off
McCaffrey and then also come off Kittle to anything else?
I mean, maybe that's like Loveland.
Yeah. Jewish McCaffrey saying Loveland
is is much easier with the opportunity cost, which I agree
with. Why you're going to see Loveland
a lot higher. But it's you know, if you are
fading the Bears, you know, that's a spot where you can play
who's your our our comment is coming from Jewish McCaffrey.
It's the opportunity cost. I just I got to play McCaffrey
like this is his picture is Christian McCaffrey.
Yeah, very fair. I just got to pay I.
Just got to play that guy there's.
Nothing I can do, yeah. All right, so final team Packers
someone asked artillery Frost asked if these, you know,
quarterback and and kicker and defense some to you know some to
100% yes, well, they did I've been I've been tinkering.
So they they will later tonight. You usually pull up by position
really quick at the end so we can kind of see the relative
like chalk and stuff. I'll try to I'll try to find
homes for for things that have gotten a little out of whack
before we do that. But yeah, all right, this is a
big one, big, big one for, you know, projections driven stuff
versus, you know, feel because the feel on the Packers feels
like Watson, people like Watson. I like Watson.
Watson's fun. He's looked awesome.
He's kind of getting better, like week by week.
It feels like you think he you think he's in a bad matchup, He
goes nuts, right? We we, we bench him in a league
on the Saturday game, he goes nuts.
Like Watson's been awesome and really defied expectations
coming back from this injury. He's a deep threat.
He draws targets. He's fun in a loss because you
know he can hit, you can get there, you know when and the
Packers are actually a very fun team when you when you push them
and they actually have to pass because they don't really want
to pass. But if they they get pushed, he
goes nuts in a loss, you move on.
It's like a very easy play to see yourself banking a bunch of
points, which is obviously what you want to do.
You're going to lose 2. Two teams will lose from from
players that you that you have skill players on.
And so he's a a fun one to bank and move on.
Josh Jacobs, though, is going to project better.
And so I've just been struggling to, I mean, I had Jacobs quite a
bit higher than Watson at first, but it feels like sentiment on
Watson is really strong. So that's why you started that
You're explaining why you have Watson so high.
The chats initial feel is the same like you get Jacobs up
Watson down Dobbson and Reed versus Watson.
Now I feel good about jamming Jacobs, Jacobs, Dobbs read good
plays. There's a lot of a lot of
commentary, but that's why you're you're talking about that
is you've done the thought process.
Your initial feel was that Watson would be lower than this.
As you've worked through it. You've had to raise Watson is
what you're saying. I've been raising Watson as I go
because I, I've just heard a lot of Watson love and I, I think
when people think through the bracket on the Packers, I don't
think people like the Packers And, and look, they don't.
I have a lot of reason to think that because I'm drafting
Packers. Hey, sign up for the sidekick,
legendaryupside.com sidekick and drafting back.
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We've got a bunch of Packers in the puppy truck.
Our our guest on Friday, Dick Myers, does the welly maker.
Pat's doing the Packer maker. He's just trying to get, he's
trying to find some good homes for these Green Bay Packers.
We can't get people to take these.
Packers I I just I don't think I don't think that people like the
Packers and Jacobs is a Packers win play.
That's kind of what it comes down to.
It's like Jacobs goes ahead of Watson in these tournaments, but
not by a lot on in the gauntlet and stuff.
He's not going way ahead of Watts, especially on DraftKings
with the with the receivers being a little thinner and
harder to fill they're. Close.
Do you mean Green Bay fade? Do you think Green Bay is going
to be 22% fade? What did you have the Chicago
fade at? I have the the.
Total Chicago fade at 28 and the total Green Bay fade at 35.
I don't know man fuck, I guess it's just it feels like So what?
People like Chicago more than Green Bay.
They so Jacobs and Watson are just good fantasy plays and I at
that. I can't.
Tell if I think. I well, I can't.
Tell if I. Think that's a mistake?
In your projection or mistake in the field?
Because the way it would seem to me is that the Bears and the
Packers are having to play each other, which negatively impacts
their one game win rate. But I still feel like the Bears
and the my assumption would be the Bears and the Packers can
beat. Yeah.
I've been saying, I've been saying this to Pat in our chat
that and guess he was telling me that both the Bears and the
Packers are super cheap. The the sidekick will get you on
either of them in the late rounds of the.
Yeah, it's like it's. Literally like pick it's time
for your Bears and Packers now, which would be like, but like
one of them has to win and then they're not bad teams.
They are live to then go and win again and go three games.
That's what I'm saying. Yeah, I totally agree with that.
I think the Bears and the Packers are are a couple of the
like best across all playoff formats, best plays that are out
there probably based on the way that sentiment seems to be very
negative on them. On the Watson point
specifically, as we were talking through the Packers a little bit
earlier, I was telling Pat I agree with him entirely.
Everything he said about Watson, I'm super into him.
I do agree with the chat a little bit.
The way that I wrote it in our chat was I think the degree to
which I'm confident he'll outscore Dobbs or Jaden Reed or
whoever is not proportional to the exponentially more lineups
he'll be in. That's when I thought Pat was
going to have Watson at like 12, Watson at 27 and those other
guys down at sub 2%. I mean, this is a team that
spreads it around. Watson does get the air yards.
I was just going to check his targets.
Most of the time he hits on like 5 targets, 4 catches, 80 yards.
Like it's not those five targets could go incomplete and then you
got nothing. And especially in a loss like
Dobbs gets more targets. It seems like Rita obviously
just came back recently. I, I do like the Josh Jacobs
play of the chat was saying Watson deserves to be the
projected wide receiver one. I like to write that article
input volatility. I think there's a lot of input
volatility with that projection. Another way I put it to Pat
earlier was if they play 10 more games, I'm not confident five
weeks from now that Watson would still be projected as the wide
receiver one. Whereas I am that like Puka
would be or I am that like the, the wide receiver one on a lot
of teams would still be 5 weeks from now.
This Packers team like it's Ben Watson and rightfully so.
He's been very good. It could shift another way with
with like how spread the targets are.
It's a tough one. It's a tough one to have that
big of a gap between Watson and the other guys.
Yeah, although just, you know, for people, I mean, I don't
know, maybe Mark's playing this contest every year.
But like the way this tends to go is that you have the primary
play, the secondary play and the and like the tertiary play,
right. And those would be Jacobs,
Watson and not playing Green Bay.
And then you get down into the Dobbs and the Reed.
And because there's not like one guy, it's not a Devante Smith
situation. I do think that they come in way
lower. I think.
I think, I think you're right on ownership.
I'm talking more about the play. Yeah, the play.
I, I, I think you have the ownership locked in.
And it is because the projection, there is a
meaningful gap in the projection.
Somebody just mentioned the projection Mark saying I'm not
saying you're wrong. If it's true, that's terrible.
I don't even know that it's terrible to be honest, because
it's like you don't have the like Jaden Reed is one of the
plays that we've probably done less of over the years.
It's like, hey, you don't need to play Jaden Reed.
You know, you can do other stuff like Kittle.
Great play. So I, so I, I that was actually,
I was hoping we would get here and we did get here by the end,
which is like to summarize all of this.
And I wonder how much this is going to end up functioning in
terms of what the ownerships actually are.
If the downstream effects of understanding salary cap DFS
come here, which is that the, the, the plays that end up
evaporating are the Romeo Dubs teams, the Jaden Reed teams, the
to, to to Ben's point, the Brock Purdy teams where if the, the,
the, the sorts of plays they get weeded out when you start to do
a SIM process are not the 0% plays, but like the truly
marginal plays. The the Manung guys, right.
Like we were, we were laughing about, we were laughing about
Manung guy earlier, like, oh, it's cold or whatever.
But like, you just really probably should never play
Manung guy over loved ones in in this universe because the
contest is not that big. How many?
How many entries are there? There.
Are. That's a good question.
Like, it's not that, it's like. It's not even 1000.
I was scared. I was going to say it's it's,
it's, I think, I think it's 10,000.
It's like it's like 8, yeah, 6 or 8.
It's not 10,000. I was just doing something like
it. It it's like a, it's like a a
decent size 3 Max salary cap contest, you know?
Well, and the other part of it is even when you hit on a really
thin play like that, it guarantees you almost nothing.
We've had years like the year that Juju was like completely
unplayed in the first round for the Steelers and we had like 2
teams with him and we're like, yeah, we're overweight on him
because he was played in like only like 10 teams in the whole
thing. And then you go look at those
two teams and you're like, yeah, but these two teams have a bunch
of problems with the other builds around him.
Like you can, it doesn't mean you don't play leveraged plays
at all, but you do have to understand that even when you
hit on it, it doesn't. It's not like DFS where if you
really nail one of those levers, they can propel you if you have
the right game stack around it. You have like one other thing,
right? You can't limit things that you
need to get right enough that to some degree when you play this
tournament, a lot of times you're like, well, I'm just not
even worrying about the guys that aren't going to be played
because they're probably not going to be in the winning
lineup because it's too hard to get them right in the the five
lineups that they're in. With everything else, you have
to get right around it. There's an element where you're
actually like, OK, holding hands with some of the field on
certain things because you're like, I have to get all this
other stuff right. So if like we agree that like
we'll just have CMC here, then that's kind of fine.
That's fine. Like Jawan.
Like having Jawan Jennings on this team where I nailed
everything else right is really pissing me off right now.
Yes, right. So it's like, that's right, I'm
the nuts. But this is the one where I got
fancy with Jayden Reid. Like, great.
Yeah, got it. That's right.
Damn it if I would. You go through that enough.
Cause Watson at 24 is still a low percent.
You'd be like God if I would have just played Watson but
those 24% of people gained so much on me because I played
Jayden Reid when I didn't need to on this team.
It it does suck. It sucks like it really sucks.
It's hard enough to get. I mean even if you play owned
players. The bigger issue is, is if you
only played shock, you dupe. You do want to do enough to be
off the the most common build types.
But that doesn't mean you have to get to 1% plays or sub 1%
plays because there's a lot of guys like Watson. 24% is not a
ton. That's only, you know, whatever
a couple thousand of the lineup with that one play you got, you
got 12 plays across your lineup. If you make a lot of plays in
the 20% range, you're probably not going to be duping too much.
Yeah. Anyway, what do you have to you
mentioned projections earlier. What what do they have?
What does HR have Watson at this week?
Davis, I'm looking at it right now.
They got him at 12.4 in FFPC and they have read at 9.1.
So they have a 3.3 gap and those odds at 7.7 even quite a bit.
That's a pretty big gap. Which which, yeah, what did they
have Jacobs at? They have Jacobs at 17.5, quite
a bit ahead, quite a bit ahead. So maybe I still have Jacobs a
little too low there. I do think Jacobs is a pretty
good play because especially like they, they're they're alive
to win, obviously, and be a 2 gamer.
And then, yeah, all right, I'll, I'll get, I'll get I'll get
Jacobs up a little bit again. That was when I was like been
trying to just hear heard so much Watson love, but Jacobs is
just projecting so much better. I feel better about going with
the projection. This is another thing, like Jake
says, Kittle and QJ plus chalk. That's there's a going to be a
that's when you get duped, when you play a lot of chalk and then
you just go, I'm going to play QJ because a lot of the people
who play QJ are going to be like, that's enough.
QJ is going to be in a a couple percent.
A couple percent is a few 100. And then I mean, or whatever,
not a few man math is hard. 10,000 ish teams.
Yeah. So 1% is 100 line UPS ish, like
80 because it's like 8000 or whatever you said.
So like if he's 2%, he's in 160 lineups.
And a lot of those lineups are going to put chalky pieces
around it. And Kittle himself is not not
chalk. So I mean, that's that's I think
you're better off rather than going down to the one like 2%
play and playing all chalk. That's what people are going to
do and think they're getting unique.
You're better off doing 3 or 4 pivots to the 20% guys.
The non like really good plays, guys who project really well and
they're going to score a bunch of points but are getting
underplayed because it's not as comfy to click them right.
Kittle's a version of that for sure, but you need Kittle A
version of that, Yeah, I would say Adams is a version of that,
too. Gretch, that is such a good
point. I mean, that's like basically
the most instructive way to think about this is don't have
your pivots be the schlubs. Have these pivots be high
scoring guys who have teammates who also score well, but are
just more popular. Yep, It's it that that like
honestly, we 2 hours, 25 minutes into this, we just like kind of
hit the the key of the exercise, which is like, yes, you should
definitely play the the guys who project well, but you can win
with Cameron Dicker instead of Chargers hard fade.
You can win with A.J. Brown over Barkley.
It it's less likely to win with Jaden Reed over Josh Jacobs.
And there's so many good plays that don't really get played.
You don't have to go to super thin plays.
I mean, there's there's like good high scoring players that
are not, we just went through them all.
We're going to go position by position now, right, Pat?
Pat's doing a little tweak here we are.
Yeah, I'm getting, I'm getting some things sorted out.
But I mean, one of them would be Trayvon Henderson, who I'm down
to 16% now. Yeah, that might be your Acres
play this year. Yeah.
There's a lot of dudes like that and I, I just put them at 15%.
I mean, Henderson is I, I don't know, I might.
ETR has Woody Marks projected the same as Trayvon Henderson.
We have to play Woody. How many How many weeks has
woody marks this would be? This would be a good one.
How many weeks has Woody Marks hit his his ETRPPR projection?
I was just saying this earlier. I think it's not happened.
Like I. Don't know.
I mean, I, I, I'm gonna ask Leone whenever we have this
conversation. Maybe it'll be Friday if he has
that. I'm sure he does.
I'll be curious what their projected number versus actual
points on a weekly basis as they've, I mean, he gets a lot
of playing time. Like your projections are going
to like them. I got everything to 100.
Everything's sorted out. Got the fades all to 200%.
Everything's sorted. Here we go.
Position my position, go through this quickly made adjustments as
we went. Drake made 33, Josh Allen 25.
This. Looks right to me.
This looks like the right order. This looks like roughly given
who their teammates are Like I think you did a good job.
That makes sense. I think it's it is still going
to be May and Allen, Hertz, Lawrence, Nick Stafford feels
like that a secondary pivot group, right.
And then there's just going to be some riff raff on those other
guys and yeah, that's good. All right, let's go to running
back Caffrey, the big chalk, then Cook, Jacobs, Barkley, CTN.
So this looks right and it does make me think, God, I can't
believe, man. I I can't believe this is where
I've gotten. But like Barkley here 42, I'm
I'm feeling I, I, I'm a buyer. I'm a buyer on Barkley as the
running back four in this tournament.
This also drives home the point we were just making.
There's only 5 running backs that.
How about the 20%? There's a big gap there.
You can get to the 6th best, 7th best, 8th best running back play
at sub 20%. Like there are, like you
mentioned, Trayvion, Pat, but RJ, Harvey, Hampton, Swift if
you want to play Romandre, if you want to play Gainwell, like
Gainwell's a decent version of that where like he's going to
catch 8% in a loss in A1 and done.
Gainwell could still be an optimal running back play.
Like there's a lot of decent plays here.
But yeah, as far as overall ownership, I mean, this is
actually what Joe was asking for before, so I'm glad that we did
give Joe what he wanted. I thought you asked me to make
like a pie chart or something, and that's that's why I said
that's what I thought too. Like there would be like a line.
Yeah, I thought it was homework, but visual.
That was a reasonable request. Travion looks great.
I think Travion looks great. I don't know.
I had extra quarterback because I took quarterback away from
Purdy and some other guys as we went and it went mostly to May
because I feel like, you know, as we go through, it's like,
yeah, there's not a lot of Patriots people are excited to
play. And I don't really buy that
they're going to gravitate to Hunter Henry because we, look,
you guys are all excited to play Kittle.
How excited You play 2 tight end line UPS.
You're, you're putting Hunter Henry in with Kittle or you're
not playing Hunter Henry. You're not playing Hunter Henry.
You're playing Trayvon Henderson, right.
Or you're playing, yeah, Stefon Diggs or May or Romandre if
you're a boomer. So you know, you're, you've got
other options there. I don't think Henry's going to
be super high owned. I think it's it mostly goes to
May, but I don't know. I mean, Henderson at 15 is like,
there's there's a Patriot I want to jam in this tournament and
it's not Drake May. How did this happen?
So yeah, we'll see. Let's look at the receivers.
Curious that it went mostly to May.
Yeah, maybe, maybe Nick's, maybe May comes down, Henderson comes
out. I'm going to get I'm going to
try to get some more Henderson vibes before I'll be adjusting
these as we as we move in to the weekend.
So all right, wide receiver. Yeah.
So the two big talk pieces is that like that feels like and I
was. Told he was loved.
Yeah, so this this feels right. Sutton being the third does feel
insane. I but I think the way the Denver
stuff goes because there's going to be very little hard fate of
Denver, right. So anytime there's a very yeah,
I wonder if there's there's. Not a lot of good receiver
place, like looking below that. I mean, that's like it means
people are gonna jam JSN and puka more.
But if you don't play JSN or puka or Adam's the puka cause
'cause keep in mind, 'cause people, you know, mention, oh,
your puka's low. Well, hang on, 'cause it gets up
to 87% once I tack on Adam's, you know, Ram's receiver is an
Ram's receiver is 87%. So it's pretty freaking high,
yeah. Yeah, and then and then just a
bunch of shitters like Ted getting Ted 40. 8% feels like
Cloud Soldiers name but dude, no one's playing Harvey with the
Dobbins thing. You you can't.
It's like oh I'm playing, I'm playing Harvey over Sutton, but
I might lose Harvey in the conference championship game and
I'm not sure I won him over Sutton to begin with.
I might prefer Sutton in a loss. Right, this is what Jacob was
saying. Nyx is such a good play as well.
I actually think Sutton is a good play at 48.
Percent in front. I think he's fine.
Yeah, I think he's probably a good play because the the reason
he's getting boosted up is valid and he's he's going to be held
down a little because people are like, it's Cortland Sutton.
But like, there's a lot of scenarios where Cortland Sutton
is the Denver play in my mind. Yeah, This is live or are we
live on YouTube right now? We are, if that's the question.
I'm not sure what else you mean. That's how much I love you guys,
bro. That's how much I love you guys.
Yeah, Crutch is saying he agrees with the ownership on Sutton,
but he dislikes the Harvey play or the Harvey on the show, too.
The Broncos, like, I don't know, the fact that everyone wants to
fade him makes me want to play all their guys.
Maybe Nick's does get a little higher.
I might I might bump up Nick's like a percent and take May down
and put Henderson up or something like that.
That'll be probably post, post show tweak.
But anything else from jump out to you guys from these
ownerships on the receivers, Metcas McMillan, we didn't
really talk about. Is Burden the litmus test for
how many slappies are playing the contest?
Yes, yes, yeah, 10% of the field is just straight up slappies.
Yeah, amazing. No, this looks good.
I think the big note is just like how quickly wide receiver
actually dries up. It probably means it's tough to
flex a lot of wide receivers. You might see more running backs
in the flex. You can get different by flexing
receivers. This is why I think Christian
Watson's higher than than it feels like he should be.
I might even change Metcalf McMillan, like if you want to do
sharp pivots, you go to those teams that are likely to lose
but have a a star wide receiver like a Metcalf and McMillan that
could be the guy in even in a loss that, you know, hits the
optimal. I mean, there's some ways to get
smart here on this field by like flexing a lot of receivers like
that. People loving Parker Washington,
such an elite play or like a Chargers receiver.
We were talking about QJ. People start throwing QJ on
there. I mean, I don't think that's
crazy to play him. Whoever mentioned that a minute
ago, you can play AQJ kill team. I just don't think play chalk
with that. Like, you know, you want, you
want one or two more good pivots.
So I was going to ask you guys about A.J.
Brown and Damonte Smith and and then versus Saquon Barkley.
And I figured we should probably, you know, wrap things
up, but then Shorty told me that I was completely off on Philly.
So now I I'm tilted and I have to ask you guys what, what do
you guys think in terms of my Barkley projection versus the
Philly projection? Brown at 20, Devante's down at
six, and then Barkley I had at like fiftyish 42.
Oh yeah, 42. So not even that high.
The, the idea that Smith and Brown are going to get to 40%
is, I think, an outlier perspective.
Shorty's entitled to his opinion, but I don't agree with
it. That's that's not the way that
those guys have scored this year.
That's not the way they're viewed.
That's not the way that team is viewed to win.
When they when they win, when they go on runs, they're they're
the thought is that they're going to do it through Barkley
or Hertz again, is I think a really reasonable play that's
going to catch ownership. We we've moved him up or talking
about him. You still have.
Ownership on A.J. Brown, he's the, he's tied for
the fifth highest wide receiver ownership in this whole contest
on a team where people I've talked about wanting to play the
tight end as well, the running back and the QB.
I, I mean, like, it's not like you're saying they're going to
be fully faded. When we went through the Eagles,
we didn't talk about Brown really a lot, but I was in my
mind going, that's right, you put them in a solid #20%.
That's right. You know, yeah, I, I agree with
this, Devante. Oh, no, I mean, that's a comment
I also agree with. But the one I want to pull up
was Devante Smith at 6%. Just feels off because we're DFS
brained. Right.
I think 5th, the 5th play that people are going to want to play
on on the team, Saquon Hurts, A.J.
Brown and daughter are all going to be.
And then Devante, the second receiver becomes the fifth guy
that I mean, people we talked about like there's the the the
primary chalk, the secondary chalk and maybe the tertiary.
Like Devante's fun, but he's going to be the 5th most played
player on his team. It's hard for that to be higher
than six. This is when I start to know
that that the the ownership is really getting dialed in.
People will pay play T law more than Hertz.
That's what's wrong. Hertz feels like a sick play if
he's actually. 12% right. Right.
Your dial it hurts is low man. I don't think I've over
projected. Hertz like British has been
really high on T law the whole show.
He wants to play T law like really bad.
Yeah. All right.
Tight end. Let's go to tight end Loveland
chalk, and I think it's going to be sneaky chalk.
I'm not sure people. Chalk Everyone who puts Loveland
in is going to be like they don't see it coming bro.
They don't even know what's about to happen to them.
But this is probably still low when.
You feel this? Going to be on them and not
realize, yeah, it's amazing, but.
Dude, all these idiots playing Swift and then Nope, it's all
Loveland. It was always the astronaut
meme. It was always Loveland that.
Is honestly, I think the Loveland thing is like part
like, like the value of actually sitting down and, and creating
ownership for all the players. Like it's like, oh shit,
Colston, Loveland's going to be chalk.
Like that's that to me is like one of the big values of, of
doing this. Yeah.
And, and totally. And that is the way that a lot
of the like boomers, if you will, will think about it.
They'll be like, oh, he's, you know, he's a sneaky player.
And then he, they're going to find out his chalk for us
knowing that he's going to be somewhat chalky, knowing he's
going to be 32%. He's still a smash play, right?
Like I, I was a little sceptical last night.
He went over 80% routes for the first time in Week 16, but he's
been over at all three of the final three weeks leading into
the postseason and the last two games. 10 targets, 6 catches, 94
yards in ATD. 13 targets, 10 catches, 91 yards in ATD.
Those are monster games heading into the post season with all
the routes to back it up that just started peaking and then
his production followed. Yeah, this is like a really good
play actually, even at 32 percent on a weak tight end
field with on a team that could win that doesn't have great
other plays. I think he and Burden are fairly
equivalent plays with Odoonsay coming back and maybe even you'd
say you like Loveland the tad more straight up in PPR.
And then it's this is half, this is tight end premium.
It's a 1 1/2 PPR. So and and then also we're all
kind of looking for tight ends and also tight ends.
Loveland's kind of fine and a loss.
I'm not worried about needing to feel like the Bears win if I
have Loveland. So, and and I mean talk about a
way to to hit the optimal at tight end, Like if he if he goes
nuts, you know, if he puts up a 30 burger in tight end premium
in a Bears loss, good luck meeting that.
It's almost kind of better honestly.
Honestly it's it's kind of almost better for them to lose.
And just like he had, he gets like 11 receptions.
You know, like you, you almost kind of want Loveland more in a
loss where it feels like if they if they get 2 games, one of them
being a win, then you get like swift and Burden so.
You have a non guy, You have a non guy.
Jake into the chat. No love for Jackson Hoss?
That's very good. I actually do have quite a few
gauntlet entries left to do so that's what I'll be doing that
later. But per this comment and so and
I don't think I moved the market and enough to for this comment
to be correct that I yeah, that my key law we got.
To move on. From shorty's like micro QB
tweets in the 10% range, he's really, really.
Stuck on that. Really stuck on it.
Jewish, McCaffrey said. Strange might Maybe a spinach
higher 9% Strange I do kind of like I think he's a pretty good
play. But we were also talking about T
Law has come up. We were talking about Parker
Washington. People are going to play some
Brian Thomas and some Jacobean. I think Strange might be high.
I think I might have Strange. He might actually get squeezed a
little is where I was going to go too, because ETN is obviously
the chalk there and the bills part of it where people want to
play Allen and then maybe fade the Jags a little bit, play the
Jags D or or just, you know, full fade them or whatever.
I think Strange is a good pivot. I do think you're right, Pat,
that if anything, you're maybe he's going to sneakily come in
lower than than he probably should.
I think it's a it's a nice play is what I think you're seeing
more than his ownership needs to come up.
Yeah, again, I don't think people are going to really be
excited to play multiple tight ends.
You'll see some multiple 2 tight end lines, but you're not really
going to see any three tight end line UPS.
I would I think those are going to be pretty rare.
And then? And if you build a three tight
end lineup, you're gonna look at the third tight end and be like,
this could be not a tight end. I'm gonna.
What?
A nice little pivot I can make here.
But people do forget it is tight end premium.
They do forget. They do forget, but you get you
get Kittle in there. Now I don't have to play
Strange. I can play ETN right.
I can play one that ends a big part of this.
So that is a big part of what we got to figure out on this.
But let's look at kicker and Dee and fades real quick and then
get out of here real quick. I just want to what are your
guys thoughts on this? The Schultz ownership at 18 or
19%. We're we're in the weeds now.
I think it's going to be 19. That's good, that's good.
All right, let's let's go to Kickers.
I I I I dead ass. I do think if you are if you are
doing more edits, I would think about trying to find a couple
more percentage for Fairbairn. So you think, do you think that
the Texans get faded more than I have it, or do you think it
comes out of their defense? Why the?
Texans D is such a bad play on no, but they so the last.
Two years they've been optimal in multiple game.
Runs and people are going to be like the the people that play
this contest every year are like, man, I'm playing the
Texans. In a win, the Texans DST in a
win, you, you might be right Davis and and it might just be
that the Texans get faded a little bit more, but I already
have. Them at 35% I've got.
I've got green. Bay actually down?
To 31 now. So they're the 4th most faded
team in the I'm projecting them to be the fourth most faded
team. I'm projecting a chalk line up
basically to have like Boswell and I mean this was the boomer
opto Boswell and and Texans D. But.
I actually don't think it'll go that way.
I think but but you know, you see that's so easy though, like
when it's when it's that much of A one to one that's.
So. Easy for the.
To just swap those around or or to make a different fade to just
put fair Baron different D Davis.
The thing is, he's not. He's kicking outdoors in a
stadium. We just saw all these missed
kicks in Week 18. I think people are like legit.
Scared of Heinz Field a low total game.
He's already got. I just I just I I guess my my
brain is not processing that far.
The also the other thing is I've seen this has been a a.
YouTube comment I've gotten all week talking about this playoff
stuff talk people talking about how Rogers just not going to
take any sacks and not get any interceptions he's just going to
dirt every time this is this is wild to me.
He he just like melted down against the Browns 2 weeks ago.
I I I can only. Tell you what my YouTube
comments tell me. Let's go to the D.
We we've spent enough, enough time on the kickers.
Let's go see where you have Houston's D.
I like the YouTube comment. Alpha though, that's pretty
great. It's dude you you really pick up
on stuff like Devon Bailey. Most commented player in my
YouTube chat of all time. People fucking love Devon
Bailey. For some reason your YouTube
chat loving Devon Vele, it's just great.
I just love. It and I couldn't.
I couldn't. Breathe without someone telling
me, Diami Brown. Was a good round 18 pick this
offseason and I just like could not let it go.
'Cause it was so mystifying. Anyways, the defenses, you know
what, I'm going to try to find a little bit more fairbearing.
I'm going to try to get a little bit more fairbearing, which
probably means I fade Texans a little bit more.
I have the. Texans hard fade.
Or take it off their D at 0%. This is fascinating.
You have Houston and Pittsburgh's kickers were both
really high. You had both Fairbean and
Boswell, and now you have their defenses.
It's the. Top 2.
Lot of people are going to be soft fading that Houston,
Pittsburgh game. Think about doing something
different. You want to get unique, think
about doing it differently. Play, play Winnie Marks.
Is what I just told. You.
Not that, but something something Carolina D should be
last don't I have. Them I mean.
I've gone to two. Percent, yeah, I mean, sure,
that probably goes. I.
Could take that down to one part.
Of that is that people are going to be picking them to lose and
so it's easy when you pick them to lose.
Yeah, some people will play the D because you don't want to like
literally put, I mean, frankly, those people are probably us
because we're probably going to like try to randomize the DS a
little bit and we'll play some Carolina D So it's like it it
just when you when you're looking at a team that's going
to get like 90% total faded including the kicker and D and
then the D almost has to be played a little a little bit,
right? Yeah.
So I think 2's probably right. Who's?
The Rams backup. Quarterback, Can he throw some
picks after the Rams are up by 35?
Anything else on that? I think one thing I'll notice
probably later. Tonight or tomorrow, I'll
probably have Jacksonville DA Little.
Lower and get hard fade in there more because I want to get
Jacksonville heart fade up opposite Allen teams.
I think that's something I probably messed up.
I also think Denver heart fade might be a little higher than I
have it, but that's it. That's, I mean, also that's for.
The people fades, yeah. We usually close with a.
A a build that should do. We have oh.
Yeah. I do, yeah.
Pete registers team Nice. All right, So yeah, Carolina's
just going to get massively faded.
We haven't talked about the picker D for a reason.
Massively faded those. Top three teams are the big.
The big fades and then. Yeah, people want to fade the
Green Bay Chicago game a little bit, but I mean, it's.
Aside in some. Cases if you want it.
That's the other thing we've always said, if you want to get
unique, one of the things you can do, and this gets back to
that one commenter's idea of playing QJ.
I mean, one thing you can do is just play a Panther or a Stealer
or a Charger or two of them in losses 'cause there will be at
least two skill players that go, you know, one and done and and
all like some of these other teams are going to lose like
Buffalo as a fade we were talking.
About as a as an. Option 'cause if the Jags do win
that game then it's just who of the Bill skill players scored
the most. Did you know Tedaroa McMillan
outscore James Cook and when both their teams were losing?
Cause Cook in a loss probably isn't a great play.
And that can definitely happen more than the field will play
it. Like that's one of the smartest
ways to to get unique is just think through, hey, six teams
are going to lose this weekend. And it doesn't matter how good
the Bills are in general or the Jags, one of them's going to
lose. And there's a strong possibility
that the losing team out of that game or you know, any, any game
isn't the highest scorer of the weekend.
Everyone's going to think that it's the Panthers and the
Steelers to fade is kind of what you're showing.
But yeah, I think so. Couple people aren't that dumb
that are Max and they'll play Carolina skill players.
I think it's under 80%. That would be a big departure
from kind of years past. Like last year, the Steelers
were 91% faded and the Broncos. Were 86.
Percent faded 2 years ago. The Steelers were 95% faded.
That's all fades, including S fades.
That's total fades. Yeah, three years ago.
The. Ravens were 89.
Seahawks were. 86. Miami was 82 and these are teams
that time had about a 1% chance to make the Super Bowl 1 to 2%
and the the Steelers were 91%. Last last year faded actually
had a 3% chance. The Broncos were 86% faded with
a 3% chance as well. Panthers have a 1% chance to
make the Super Bowl. So fading them is like not dumb.
It's just, you know, maybe it's fading them a little too much.
But like McMillan, I don't know what would optimal be like 15%
or something. It's not like crazy and and no
the other they're. The biggest dogs.
And it's like a bad match up. The other reason this can't get
under 80? We broke it down last night when
we decided that their fade's going to.
Be so high is that there's three teams.
Carolina. Pittsburgh and the Chargers that
make sense for fading, but you, you have to fade 4.
So when we're getting to the bottom.
Of the boomer opto. You're squeezing out a team.
You don't want to fade somewhere you have like it's, it's a
favored team in opening weekend or something.
So you're already doing that with the way that the numbers
work out. Yeah, add Carolina into your
skill position thing. You have to then squeeze out two
of those teams. There's two.
It's a year where it's it's tough to get everyone in that
you want to have exposure to. It's like McMillan versus ETN or
McMillan versus McCaffrey or McMillan versus Kittle, you
know, or McMillan versus, you know, maybe maybe the Chargers
one is easy, but you probably already have them faded.
So McMillan versus Loveland at tight end, now you got to figure
out tight end somewhere else. Or Josh Jacobs.
Josh Jacobs, right, Yeah. Or Watson.
And you're already fading one of those you've already got or
James Cook or James Cook, which again, we think is a sharp way
to do it, right? Like you're fading.
The Bills is probably pretty sharp 'cause I think they're I I
do think the flip side of this is that we've seen teams worth
like really comfy plays not get faded.
Like last last year, the Eagles were 2% faded.
Of course, they did win the Super Bowl, but the Vikings were
5% faded. They had a 13% chance to get to
the Super Bowl that the Rams were 7% faded with a 7% chance
to get to the Super Bowl. You know, these teams like the
49ers tend to just get played and the Bills I would, I would
group in that as well. Let's build.
I love this from. Crutches Davis is hibernating.
He's I've I've never Davis has never talked a little on the
stream. Davis, you did a great job
filling in for Pete. You're just drafting over there,
it seems like. Well, let us let us talk.
See, I don't think it's 0% slowing down.
Yeah, I just, I also just have less opinions on this stuff.
I have not played these nearly as hard cores you guys have.
So. I I.
Have less I have. Less opinions.
There you go real quick before we move off the fades.
This is hard fade. You don't select anything.
I think most of the Seattle fade will come through the kicker.
Or the defense. Obviously they have an only.
Defense, so I have their total fade up at 8%, which is Jason
Myers for a one seed. Jason Myers had a really good
year kicking I he people and and he's a kicker.
People know, yeah, there's always a little bit and and just
like, oh, I know that guy. I was looking at ETRS.
Playoff projections like their points per game stuff for that.
That friend thing I was doing where I have to draft a kicker
and Myers was their. Highest projected point per game
kicker for the for the whole playoffs.
So if you want to fade Seattle, I mean, Myers is like a really
nice way to do it. Honestly, I I like the Jason
Myers play. Yeah, I think, I think most
people just go with Myers, who gives you a really nice kicker.
That's just exactly right. Jason Myers getting 23 points at
a loss on the table. Look, it's totally there.
Yeah. All right, let's build a line up
before we get out of here. Grab trying to kick us off.
All right, I'm going to. I'm going to kick us off with a
selection of Bill's full fade. Bill's hard fade is my.
Selection all. Right.
So on a bill's hard fade, we should take do we take Lawrence
or do we take ETN? Either way.
But it doesn't have to be a Lawrence.
They lost to the they lost. So that means that I like ETN.
On it. OK, let's.
Do ETN well, I I mean Liam, Liam's in channels and and now
now Shorty Vegas pick is also in channel.
So we're not making this a Lawrence team?
Yes. That's making everyone mad.
All right, so you took ET wait, ET NS.
Here, OK. Yeah, I guess I'm taking ETN.
But I was trying to take Bill's hard fade.
I want to make sure we. Didn't take play both.
Sides of that, Davis I will take.
I mean, let's just get Pook out of the way.
Bill's hard fade's already. Unique part of the game tree.
All right. So if we're talking Bill?
'S hard fade. And we don't have Lawrence.
This is either. A Bonex or a Drake?
May team. That's right, it's a Drake.
It's what I'm fucking doing. It was always a Drake May team.
So with with Bill's hard fate on
the board, we can. Put Tedder on McMillan.
Into this lineup, we did it last.
Night we're doing it again tonight it's.
It's a good one to get a Carolina play in.
We talked about when you're when you you're squeezed for for
teams, but we're getting the Bills out.
So it it works all right. Well, now we can do.
We could take McCaffrey. Like we can honestly with the
combo of Tete. Bills hard fade.
How many of that? How many that the combinatorial
ownership there will be? What?
Well, actually hundreds high because when bills are hard
faded, you're more likely to get, you're more, I guess you're
more like, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, tensions. Are more likely to be fading a
team. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
So wait, am I up? Who's up?
I'm up. OK.
So just thinking through the. Rest of the safety.
Bracket we need. We need Houston.
Houston's going to go to Denver. Denver the bad Nico Collins
match up potentially I I'm going to go Dalton Schultz.
OK, I was going to go Loveland, but Dalton?
Schultz. Schultz.
Schultz and Loveland. Schultz and Loveland, I think
you'll see paired. I don't know if I love.
Because then Schultz has to outscored Nico.
The thing about not having a flex tight end.
But we we get, we get the Denver match.
Up in this. In this bracket you see what
I'm. Saying OK, all right, then I'll,
I'll, I'm, I'm doing cornerbacks.
I think it's me before you, Davis.
OK, all right, go ahead. I'm going to do.
Well, I'm going to. I'm going to give.
You whatever question I'll I'll make you make the.
The Bears decision tonight and I'm going to take.
Josh Jacobs on this play, the Packers to win.
Well, it's not much of A decision because I'm selecting
from the University of Missouri Luther.
Burden the third. Let's go.
We had we had McMillan and Burden on last night's build.
Shocking. Shocking, shocking.
Burden. Why isn't he right at the top?
Why is he not ranked 1st? Burden Burden.
Why is I'm seeing puka nakua instead of burden?
What's going on that that doesn't seem?
That doesn't seem right. Not in my model.
I'll, I'll take Jason. This is actually sick.
This is a good team. This is the slap.
Well, it has. Etns so it can't be the full
slappy OP though. What?
That's just, oh, that's not the slot.
I got it. What's the we can always swap in
Tooting? What's the games that we don't
have a piece of yet? Are there any bills?
Steelers, we don't have the Eagles.
On the Eagles. 49ers Oh, we kind of Oh, no, we got McCaffrey.
Good, good, good. OK.
So we could. Fade the Eagles.
We don't have a Bronco either, but I mean Jacob made a
compelling case for fading the Broncos as well.
Philly Broncos fade the Broncos is tricky.
I think we should fade the Broncos because we have Etienne
and May, but that means we're we're.
Betting on Schultz in three. Games now oh Houston plays yeah,
I think we won a Bronco God because we have.
The Eagles. Yeah, we have both the two and
three seed winning, so Houston's going to.
We should probably pick the. The Bears Packers game.
Yeah. It's tough to do both, Jacob.
'S burden on. This no.
They correlate. Burden has 11 receptions for 82
yards and a. Touchdown and a lot we're
talking. We're talking about the bracket.
Though they do correlate, yeah, no, I think.
We do got to play a Bronco. I think we can fight the.
Eagles and say that the Niners just beat them and.
Mccaffrey's really good and the Eagles suck.
OK, so we're going to take Cortland Sutton.
No, we're going to take RJ Harvey on this team because.
We're Schultz's. We we want.
The Broncos to win 2 gamer. RJ Harvey.
Although I do like Sutton in a 2 gamer as well.
I kind of like Harvey on on. MA team because you're saying
they're not getting to the Super Bowl anyway, so yeah, yeah.
Yeah, crutches. Houston, Houston.
Denver Sutton, That's a no no. It.
Took me a minute. It took.
Me a minute to get there. So what do we?
Want to do with the Eagles? Are we doing?
Soft fade, right kicker, Their defense.
Or their. Kicker.
Could the Eagles defense? The Eagles defense is.
Not and they even scored very well.
They limit opposing teams, but I don't know that they do.
A ton they were. They were one.
Of the better defenses down. The stretch in some.
Like, you know. Some of the more advanced
metrics, I think they were, I think they've been playing
pretty good defense, had an easy schedule.
Someone, my brother in law's an Eagles fan.
He. Told me they had the best
defense in football. The last.
Six weeks or something just earlier today.
I mean, I know. They have a good defense.
I'm, I guess I'm wondering because they seem like a
stifling defense. So like, do they actually put up
fantasy points? But they should have.
That's a good question. So we could do Philly D.
They have at least one take away in nine straight games.
All right, that's the thing. And then we need to pick a
kicker. From.
Steelers. Chargers.
Or Bill's, but you've already said Bill's heart fade, so
that's. Out.
Well, obviously Davis wants to take Dicker the kicker, right?
Do you want Dicker against? May we?
Want we want, Probably Boswell. Give ourselves that out on
Boswell when I think FFPC. Playoff challenge, I think.
Chris Boswell, you think? I think Chris Boswell too.
They're they're synonymous. How long has he been This is
actually a good. Question.
How long has he been the kicker for the?
Steelers Chris Boswell. Has been a kicker for the
Steelers. Honestly, I I would have guessed
I would have said like 1998, 2020, 15.
That's that eight years. Now it's 11.
I love this the the Boswell thing as well with Schultz
because we're when you're playing Schultz in a win.
You're playing it as. Kind of low scoring, not a ton
of offense. You know, the Houston Pittsburgh
game, it goes low. Boswell kicks some field goals
in that loss. That's also Schultz could like
score a couple touchdowns and lose and become the optimal
tight end. And you're like, not if you'd
rather have a field player, we'll play Boswell in a yeah.
Boswell in two could be OK and Love does well enough you.
Know like if. Schultz crushes you like, want
them to lose now because you don't want Nico to come
charging, assuming Nico doesn't do well.
Yeah, guys, I kind of like this lineup.
That's pretty fun. I mean, that's the fun thing
about these is you. You.
Always get done with them being like fucking sick team dude I
know. You totally do There's but like
every player, this is like, I think it is a good example of a
thoughtful and and smart lineup where every player.
In here is good. Enough to score some points.
There's not like a. This lineup builds an example, a
smart lineup, just so you know. But the reason this is different
is we we got it. We got unique with our our fades
here. We full faded Buffalo and soft
faded Philly. There's not that's that already
puts you in like a 1% bracket of the field.
There's not going to be a lot of people that do both those
things. And if you do both those things,
you can play Puka and McCaffrey and JSN and ETN and Josh Jacobs
and Drake May and just you can, you can play some chalk like
that's how this tournament works.
Yeah, the winner was not duped last year solo shift, I think
the first dupe was was the 11th best lineup.
Or something I I. Mentioned it last night on the
show. I forget now, but it was not
duped. It wasn't duped the year before.
I I'm not sure this fantasy mojo's the the place to go for
that, but it's not that The top lineup is not tended to be
duped, but at the same time the line was fairly high up get
really duped. So yeah, yeah, it it pays to
pivot pays to make smart pivots in this tournament.
We did it all right. Three hours and one minute of
streaming. This is an episode of ADP
chasing this. Is what happens when Pete's not
here. Right, everything.
Happens. It just happens slower.
I know better than I, I. Don't have?
The cachet around here to keep you guys on the rails.
I haven't won $2,000,000, you know that's.
Sort of like so at the end of the day, I'm just.
Here, I got about 22 DK Millie teams done.
I contributed. So we're we're having A and
dude, I mean, imagine if Reeves was here, if Reeves was here,
we'd be halfway done. Holy shit.
Yeah, I would be I because I imagine about the the 49ers
match up, you know, get get in the leads fun.
Yeah, getting Jacob to, to, to go to a trivia night did help
because I mean, and I'm very long winded too, but we, we had
enough long winded people on the show.
It, it helped. But also like once Jacob left
and it was like our pace could have speed up a lot.
I was like, I'm going to just stretch out.
Exactly. And we learned a lot.
We found the answer. We did, I think, I think the
ownership projections I think got better than they were.
Before the start of the night, which is always nice.
Tweaked. Tweaked a couple.
Percentages here, tweaked a couple percentages once again.
Become a YouTube member so you can hop in the ship chasing
discord and get these ownership. Projections which I'll be
sending out later. I might send them out tomorrow
morning, but you'll have them soon.
And all right, I think that'll do it.
We'll be back tomorrow with Sacrilegious and Draco kind of
doing the the hodgepodge show. Then we'll be back Friday for
the final build show with Leone, which is always an absolute
blast. Guys, anything else you want to
tell people before we get out of here?
No, everyone. Yeah, make sure make sure to at
Karen in the discord if you can't find the ownership
projections or if you have. Any really specific?
You're like, I don't know, man, Hertz maybe shift 1%.
You think Johan Dodson's really not going to be owned at all?
Just like it's just to make sure you're in the ship chasing
Discord if you happen, let's say, to really like Trevor
Lawrence and kind of feel like you didn't make that clear over
the course of the entire 3 hour shell, you know?
You can you're going to add him that Jalen Ernst needs to come
down 2% and Lawrence needs to go up 2%.
Make sure he knows that Jewish Mccaffrey's saying if.
I miss on Allen's ownership. I'll be.
Disappointed. I will.
I'll be disappointed. Yeah.
It's going to be our fault this year.
No, I I will miss on Allen's ownership, but by just 1% for
the 4th. Straight year fucking nailed it.