1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:01,680 Right. We gave you the boomer opto. 2 00:00:02,160 --> 00:00:05,480 We gave you the slappy opto tonight. 3 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:09,320 Karain has been deep in the minds of Moria working on 4 00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:12,560 ownership projections for the FPC Playoff challenge. 5 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:15,400 We got Ben Gretch, we got Jacob Sanderson, we got Pat Karain. 6 00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:22,320 Let's have ourselves a show. Pat Fryer, Helmo This. 7 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:24,800 Is what? This is what? 8 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:25,840 I'm hot. Anita. 9 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:30,720 Handjob fix your side for Jamar alpha play Chase. 10 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:34,080 Are you kidding me? You can't. 11 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:35,880 Handle the heat. It looks like we're. 12 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:37,040 Finally at this. Point you're right. 13 00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:47,120 All right, boys. Still be every time. 14 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:51,120 I don't come on enough that like God, I just grin ear to ear 15 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:54,240 every time. The The thing is, is that Zach, 16 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:58,800 I mean, I frankly, I hope Zach has been hard at work coming up 17 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:02,360 with a new version of the introduction in which we'd like 18 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:05,920 Sam Sherman's $2,000,000 win has to become a part of. 19 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:07,320 Yeah. I would rather I would say that 20 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:09,440 before they have inclusion, sure, yeah. 21 00:01:09,960 --> 00:01:13,280 So we wow, that's what I mean kind of you know, we'll see, 22 00:01:13,320 --> 00:01:15,720 we'll see. You know, negotiations have been 23 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:19,440 ongoing between Sam Sherman and Ship Chasing LLC. 24 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:22,480 Some offers have been made. Obviously our lawyers are 25 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:26,800 speaking to his lawyers. It's the hostile takeover is 26 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:29,360 remaining hostile, but we've. Not agreed on the numbers yet. 27 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:31,760 So if you guys are. Or have you ever seen 28 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:33,360 Succession? It's kind of like that. 29 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:35,960 Yeah, it's kind of, it's kind of like that. 30 00:01:35,960 --> 00:01:38,240 It's kind of like that somehow nerdy. 31 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:43,120 We are not Taylor. We certainly, we certainly are 32 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:46,480 not. So this is my first time ever 33 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:51,040 doing this with you guys because this is past my bedtime and 34 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:54,400 normally speaking, I would I would not be I would not be 35 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:56,960 engaging in this. But twofold 1. 36 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:00,280 Jake and I are now full time members of the ship chasing crew 37 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:04,680 and two, Peter said yes to go into a Denver Nuggets Boston 38 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:07,720 Celtics game tonight. Peter is so loosely following 39 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:09,919 the NBA he did not realize that Nicola Yokich has a 40 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:13,440 hyperextended knee, that Cameron Johnson has an injured shoulder, 41 00:02:13,640 --> 00:02:17,760 and that the Denver Nuggets are playing guys who are so bad that 42 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:19,280 they're making inspirational posts. 43 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:21,200 Ticket and Julian. Strother. 44 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:24,920 Julian Strother somehow so bad he can't even get in. 45 00:02:24,920 --> 00:02:27,840 But but some of their backup guys are making inspirational 46 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:30,440 posts on LinkedIn about their wins. 47 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:34,080 Pat, do you know all of these plans with like, I don't think 48 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:37,600 waiver dollars in my no, I know Jokic and I stopped listening, 49 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:39,120 right? I heard Jokic was hurt. 50 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:43,520 I tuned out Minaji, I tuned out to the Kaden Watson that I'll be 51 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:46,160 able to tell when they stop talking about basketball. 52 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:49,320 But every time I watch ship chasing, every time I watch ship 53 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:52,320 chasing these, these days, these two guys are taking it in the 54 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:57,600 ADP chasing direction. And I'm well trained. 55 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:00,400 My brain just like it's like Homer Simpson. 56 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:02,400 I'm just kind of eating chocolate in my mind. 57 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:04,760 And there's two there's 2 monkeys clashing symbols. 58 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:07,800 And there's two. Monkeys clashing until I realize 59 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:09,640 you guys are done talking about whatever other sport I don't 60 00:03:09,640 --> 00:03:11,560 follow. I never felt like we were 61 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:14,720 particularly on track, but opening the show talking about 62 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:16,640 the third string of the Denver Nuggets is. 63 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:19,040 Well, you guys, you guys, I find this. 64 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:21,440 I, I mean, we will get, we'll get into the real stuff, I 65 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:23,480 promise. Well, I just think it's funny 66 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:25,920 that you're that you're bringing it up to make fun of Pete for 67 00:03:25,920 --> 00:03:28,480 not being here, but also the kind of immediately proving how 68 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:31,840 important he is to the show, but by then starting to talk about 69 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:35,040 basketball instead of setting up what we're actually going to be 70 00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:38,000 doing. Everyone knows what we're doing 71 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:39,920 here. Everyone knows what we're doing. 72 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:43,400 This is a sequencing of shows. It's the same thing every year. 73 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:45,480 It's Boomer Opto. First it's ownership 74 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:49,280 projections, then Thursday. Night Channel, you know, we like 75 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:51,800 to, we like to hope there's at least a couple people that 76 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:52,400 weren't here last. Year. 77 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:55,120 Well, how about one of us wins $2,000,000 again next year and 78 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:56,560 then we can keep growing the channel. 79 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:58,360 I'll win again if you guys insist. 80 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:02,360 OK, fine. We need, I think, someone, 81 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:05,400 someone, someone's got to do it. All right. 82 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:09,760 Crane, would you like to explain the methodology behind your 83 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:11,120 ownership projections? So here we are. 84 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:13,520 Here we are. This is the FPC playoff 85 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:14,960 challenge we're going to be talking through. 86 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:17,519 We talked last night about what we think the the kind of the 87 00:04:17,519 --> 00:04:23,120 chalkiest lineup will be the the Boomer Opto, as it's called. 88 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:28,760 And I've been in the lab since and been listening to some other 89 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:31,520 some other content. There there was a little bit of 90 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:36,040 confusion over what the boomer opto is exactly because it could 91 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:38,880 be one of two things. So explain exactly what it is. 92 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:43,040 It's it's the most chalk lineup. It's, it's the, it's the lineup 93 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:44,240 that's going to be duped the most. 94 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:47,560 Basically, it's the lineup that's the comfiest that you're 95 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:50,880 going to see duped probably a dozen times or more. 96 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:55,760 And the reason it's not just the highest projected, you know, 97 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:59,080 play from each team is because that's kind of impossible. 98 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:03,200 Like the highest projected play from a number of teams will be 99 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:07,800 not playing them at all, right? So like to get to the Steelers 100 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:11,520 or the Chargers or, you know, playing any of those teams if 101 00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:13,760 you're actually moving off the chalk, which will just be not 102 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:16,480 play them because those, those fades will be somewhat spread 103 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:20,120 out enough. So we had Boswell in the boomer 104 00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:23,600 opto, but I have Pittsburgh fade projected for more ownership 105 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:27,080 than Boswell cause Steelers D will get played as well. 106 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:30,920 So, so yeah, it's the most most duped lineup is what we were 107 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:33,240 trying to accomplish last night and today we're trying to 108 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:36,960 accomplish projecting the ownership for every single play 109 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:41,040 in the tournament. And historically, yeah, well, 110 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:43,640 when we when we go into this, we often talk about how you've done 111 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:45,360 in the past. People want to know that 112 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:47,400 historically you've done incredibly well. 113 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:53,520 Your process includes tracking. You're projected and actual for 114 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:56,000 more than A at least that more than 1/2 decade now. 115 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:59,800 I mean, you've got to have 5-6 years, Yeah, since 2020 and you 116 00:06:00,280 --> 00:06:02,800 have historically done incredibly well. 117 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:05,520 There's sometimes some guys that get steamed and not steamed at 118 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:07,160 this point. There is a little bit of that 119 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:11,480 leveling where your ownership projections do get viewed by a 120 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:14,120 lot of people that are playing the tournament and I think 121 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:15,960 there's, you know, they can influence. 122 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:19,320 That that's actually a couple. Popular plays and the stuff that 123 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:20,880 we talk about on the channel, we're all looking for the guys 124 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:24,880 who did this. But you historically have done 125 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:26,520 incredibly well, right, When you've tracked it. 126 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:29,520 I have, yeah. I mean, I've had some misses a 127 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:33,360 couple years ago, Tyree Kill in that cold weather Dolphins game. 128 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:35,440 I had over projected because everyone was just like, I'm not 129 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:37,160 playing the Dolphins. So there's been, there's been 130 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:38,960 some misses, but they're not a weather projector. 131 00:06:39,280 --> 00:06:41,240 Yeah. Well, no, it was a narrative. 132 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:42,680 It was a miss on the narrative, people. 133 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:44,720 It was cold weather dolphins. They didn't want, they didn't 134 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,080 want any part of it. And these ownership projections 135 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:49,720 just. Kind of historically did not 136 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:52,720 want any part of. It hold up in freezing 137 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:55,800 temperatures. Corrine, I actually have a meta 138 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:56,920 question. More projections, yeah. 139 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:01,760 Because I know that the the field is going to be a little 140 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:05,720 different this year because I think some more serious guys are 141 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:08,560 playing it. I've seen in, in, you know, 142 00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:11,640 these deep dark corners of discord where people are talking 143 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:15,360 about simming the FFPC playoff challenge and, and some stuff 144 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:17,200 like that. And that's, that's not in the 145 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:20,200 spirit of what we're doing here. It's it's not in the spirit of 146 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:24,160 it's First off, if you're using Sims on the FFPCI mean basically 147 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:27,160 fuck you like you're you. You don't get what we're doing 148 00:07:27,160 --> 00:07:30,200 here. But I would like to ask you, did 149 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:34,320 that change anything about the process of projecting ownership? 150 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:36,960 Did you flatten things out at all as a result of that? 151 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:43,600 IA little I also so far I'm still I still feel like this is 152 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:48,520 mostly a contest where, you know, it's not like a sharp, you 153 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:50,960 know, it's not like just dominated by sharp players that 154 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:54,000 are, you know, project using projections in computers. 155 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:56,560 There's a lot of people just like entering line UPS. 156 00:07:57,280 --> 00:07:58,960 They might they might do a handful of line UPS. 157 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:02,680 So I, I still think it's kind of, I'm projecting it pretty 158 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:05,320 similar to how I've been projecting in the past. 159 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:08,800 But as I was actually today, I was kind of going through and 160 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:12,480 kind of hearing what other people's favorite plays were and 161 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:15,520 using that to kind of adjust the ownership projections. 162 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:19,800 I may ultimately kind of come away from that and more towards 163 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,600 the highest projected plays. Because I think that'll like if 164 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:25,400 you want to just say, well, the sharp players are coming in and 165 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:27,440 it's going to be more math driven, it'll just go to the 166 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:30,720 more high projected plates. You know, like there's some 167 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:32,880 spots. What Kelsey's ownership would be 168 00:08:33,039 --> 00:08:35,679 in a SIM An old version of the Chiefs. 169 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:38,679 I I wonder about that like because it's got to be a 170 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:41,600 breaking point. Like I know in DFS, since The 171 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:44,200 Sims have been introduced more like you, you get more of the 172 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:47,000 popular plays, but I don't, I don't know if that's where we 173 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:49,800 are in this format. Like I like in some spots we're 174 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:52,360 not, in some spots we are. Let's let's talk like. 175 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:56,720 JSN for an example, right? So like that, That would not be 176 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:58,280 an example of what I mean by the way. 177 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:01,400 Yeah. OK, fair, fair enough. 178 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:03,240 Then the the reason I was going to talk through that one is just 179 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:05,800 because I was writing them up before I got on here. 180 00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:08,960 Like he's going to be super owned, obviously reasonably 181 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:12,200 super owned, but like what do you think his optimal ownership 182 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:13,800 should be? Not not as projected ownership, 183 00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:16,280 but like what would be you think super ownership? 184 00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:17,640 Like what? What? 185 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:20,960 Way up there. But like, I think it would be 186 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:23,040 like 72. Like I was trying to match 187 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:25,320 somewhere else and see 75 something. 188 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:27,960 It's like how likely are the Seahawks to win in their first 189 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:29,200 game? And you have to aggregate 3 190 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:31,800 different opponents in that. And I landed on about 60%. 191 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:34,600 And it's like in the world where they win, he's probably like 192 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:35,560 90%. Like wait. 193 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:39,280 They're only 60% to win their first game probably. 194 00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:40,520 I mean if. They probably Rams are going to. 195 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:43,680 Be like a one point favorite and then if they play the Niners 196 00:09:43,680 --> 00:09:46,200 it'll probably be like 3. If they play the Packers, it'd 197 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:48,080 be like. Six they'll be They'll be 3 1/2 198 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:52,040 against the 49ers. Yeah, I mean, I the reason I 199 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:54,600 said that is they're, they're pretty strong. 200 00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:56,360 Yeah. No, I it's fair that if they 201 00:09:56,400 --> 00:10:00,280 play the Rams that it's going to be close, but they're like 202 00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:03,200 pretty strong Super Bowl favorites right now. 203 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:05,200 I guess I hadn't really thought about from that perspective, 204 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:06,760 though. They're not even that likely to 205 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:10,640 win one game, but they're also the most likely team to win the 206 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:12,280 Super Bowl based on the odds. It's it's. 207 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:13,560 Yeah. Anyway, it's kind of a month. 208 00:10:13,560 --> 00:10:15,800 Well, I mean, they're plurality. That's when you start getting 209 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:18,600 into the. Go ahead, Jacob. 210 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:23,160 Well, it's just, it's like no one is really no one's that. 211 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:24,880 I mean, that's like the Rams against the Panthers. 212 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:27,000 It's like the only team that you would say are like nearly 213 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:30,400 certain to win one game, but like everyone else is like, I 214 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:33,600 think it's like even the 3 1/2 point favorites, they grayed out 215 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:36,760 to what like roughly 65%? Like they're like 2/3 to win 216 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:39,480 their games if you're looking to like Philly and Houston. 217 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:43,880 So anyway, I mean, you could go with the numbers, but basically 218 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:47,760 I would say like he's like 90% to be the guy if they play 219 00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:50,960 multiple games. And so that accounts that gets 220 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:53,880 you like 55% ownership. And then what percentage is he 221 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:56,720 to be the optimal anyways? If they lose like in the other 222 00:10:56,720 --> 00:11:01,040 40%, Like it's, it's hard to say like I, I'm, I'm not doing Sims 223 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:03,280 in my head, but like I would say roughly 5050. 224 00:11:03,560 --> 00:11:06,400 So like that gets you to like 75% ownership. 225 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:08,920 So I think even higher. I think he's gonna be higher 226 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:10,560 than that, though. Do you think he's higher than 227 00:11:10,560 --> 00:11:13,160 50% to be in the optimal lineup if they lose round one? 228 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:15,240 No, no, not to be, sorry. Not to be in the optimal. 229 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:17,600 I was thinking to be the best plan the Seahawks. 230 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:20,960 But you're right. If they lose in one game, Hawks, 231 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:23,120 yeah, it becomes pretty difficult to be the best. 232 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:25,440 Game well beats. Them or, you know, like, yeah. 233 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:29,280 Right, right, right. Well, let's start there. 234 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:33,320 There's there's some spots, Jacob, where I I'm not sure that 235 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:36,400 the higher projected play is going to get played enough. 236 00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:38,880 Is is there's. We'll get to a couple of those. 237 00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:43,200 I was going to say that feels that feels likely to me because 238 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:47,440 there are several teams that have fan favorites who are not 239 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:50,240 going to be the highest projected player on their team. 240 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:53,000 Right. All right, so we'll go to team 241 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:53,840 by team. Is that? 242 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:56,160 Oh, yeah. Is team by team how you think it 243 00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:57,640 makes the most sense? OK, Yeah, that's how we've 244 00:11:57,640 --> 00:11:58,320 always done it. Yeah. 245 00:11:58,320 --> 00:12:00,480 Yeah. OK, so here we go. 246 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:03,400 So this is the Seahawks men more. 247 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:07,360 You got to go to like 150. I'm at 150. 248 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:09,880 Let me get to Honda. Here's 2 hundo. 249 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:14,160 If you do command plus it'll you can zoom in even more. 250 00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:17,680 Not that it it's fine. Yeah, it's beautiful. 251 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:20,320 So this. Right here, you guys know the 252 00:12:20,320 --> 00:12:24,440 seeds. So this is basically exactly my 253 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:27,960 exact thought of the best play. Not getting owned enough because 254 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:35,400 I just, I cannot imagine spending 200 site credits on 255 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:39,480 FFPC and clicking one of these running backs or clicking the 256 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:43,560 kicker or clicking the defense. Like I, I think I this was the 257 00:12:43,560 --> 00:12:45,760 first one I spot where I was like, OK, maybe. 258 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:49,400 Well, the the counter to that is the Sam Darnold thing. 259 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:52,600 Like people do think they can lose in their first game, right? 260 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:56,080 I think I think you're right. Like there's been a lot of these 261 00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:58,280 types of plays in the past and I sorry, I kind of cut you off, 262 00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:01,000 but where you're going, No, no, you're but it it'd be really 263 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:02,520 hard to cut. It would be really hard to click 264 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:04,960 anyone other than JSN like Walker or whatever. 265 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:07,120 But I think Pat was saying this last night. 266 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:09,960 If if you're not going to play him and that's why he has the 267 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:13,280 defense in the kicker as both 4% and combining for 8% soft fate. 268 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:15,240 I think you're telling yourself that the Seahawks are just going 269 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:17,360 to lose and you you're like, I'm soft fading him. 270 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:21,760 Yeah, I think that's what I I think the I think the saw fade 271 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:23,960 is is actually a good play. I think it'll be underplayed. 272 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:27,160 I have I have Jason a little higher than you do Pat. 273 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:29,080 I just have less going to the riffraff. 274 00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:33,360 Like I don't have anything on Barn or Darnold, but but maybe 275 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:35,520 they get a little bit kind of anything on cop. 276 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:39,240 I I think that I think that this is roughly though what it'll be 277 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:40,600 right. I think more interestingly is, 278 00:13:40,680 --> 00:13:44,320 is how much you want to play the Seattle fade stuff. 279 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:46,760 I, I think the Seattle fade stuff is pretty sharp in a 280 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:49,320 percentage of line UPS. Like I'll obviously have JSN in 281 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:52,280 the majority of my line UPS, but I'll do some Seattle fade. 282 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:55,320 I, I will not do any line UPS. I think with sharps, Walker, 283 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:59,160 Barner, I heard some people touting the riffraff a little 284 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:00,720 bit. I'm actually take Walker down. 285 00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:03,440 I'll take these these running backs a little bit. 286 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:07,560 I think if you're going to pivot off JSN to the riffraff, I think 287 00:14:07,560 --> 00:14:10,960 there's a clear play and I think it's Barner because of the tight 288 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:12,960 end situation. I do think. 289 00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:16,680 Because I don't think he has to outscore JSN to be the optimal 290 00:14:16,680 --> 00:14:18,800 tight end. It's more about the constraint 291 00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:21,840 of there's not a lot of good tight ends, right? 292 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:24,680 Or the good tight ends could be dominated by their teammates. 293 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:28,040 Like Kiddo could score 15, but CMC, if they win a game, they 294 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:30,280 play multiple games, CMC scores 40, right? 295 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:34,320 Or, or, or Kiddo scores 20 in two games, CMC scores 40 and and 296 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:37,360 Seattle loses in one game. And Barner is only five points 297 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:39,360 behind JSN. The way that math works out is 298 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:43,760 like Barner's going to wind up being right for over Kittle or 299 00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:45,880 more often. So my counterpoint to that is 300 00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:50,160 just like I like to. I mean obviously life doesn't 301 00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:54,640 work always as linearly as you think, but like in theory it's 302 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:58,760 easier to hard fade a really high owned like Saquon or James 303 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:03,040 Cook because like them losing and then disappointing as a 304 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:06,600 scorer is just correlated. Whereas like Barner JSN is the 305 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:07,920 opposite of that. Barner gets there through 306 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:09,800 touchdowns. Like it's not like Alton Colts 307 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:11,880 who gets there through like 6-7 catches. 308 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:15,720 To me, if Barner is scoring 12, he's scoring in the end zone and 309 00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:17,720 then that means Seattle's even more likely to win. 310 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:22,160 So like, I don't, I don't love baiting a guy if he loses. 311 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:24,360 While betting on a. Guy who gets there through 312 00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:28,240 touchdowns you just had 6-7 catches and my kids would be 313 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:31,320 going nuts right now. I just want you to know that I I 314 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:35,160 heard a a few different people talk about Charbonnay as a play 315 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:39,200 today through the idea that you know he's a better bet to score 316 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:43,000 a touchdown than Walker just. Feels so fancy. 317 00:15:43,440 --> 00:15:47,760 Fisher says I'd take Walker at 1% so he gets a big run and 318 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:51,280 outscores GSNI think all of this is basically people betting on 319 00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:56,400 Seattle to not advance but not wanting to outright, you know, 320 00:15:56,560 --> 00:15:57,920 fade them through the kicker or whatever. 321 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:03,680 So I there's going to be some some of that yeah, maybe maybe 322 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:05,520 I'm slightly there will be some of that. 323 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:07,840 I don't think you're wrong to have some some on the riff raff. 324 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:09,440 Jacob, what were you saying? Sorry. 325 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:13,120 I I got so caught up in the 6-7 about because so Barner Barner 326 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:15,880 is likely to score by catching a touchdown. 327 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:21,560 My argument was JSN could dominate GO-7 for 85 or like 328 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:24,200 mostly dominate a low pass volume game where they just kind 329 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:26,680 of lose a lower scoring game, which Seattle can obviously play 330 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:29,480 those types of games. Barner can go 3 for 30 with a 331 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:34,960 touchdown in like a whatever 21 to 17 loss or something and 332 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,080 Barner's going to be optimal even if he scores slightly fewer 333 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:39,680 points or he would actually score more I think in that 334 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:40,920 scenario. But you see what I'm saying, 335 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:44,120 Like because of the touchdown thing, I actually think that's 336 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:47,240 what Hawkinson did at Jefferson last year in in the Vikings 337 00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:49,120 upset loss. He's just saying it's thin 338 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:51,640 because I think I totally see what you're. 339 00:16:51,640 --> 00:16:53,360 Yeah, like, I see what you're saying completely. 340 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:57,200 And and I my, my pushback is just and it's not a pushback on 341 00:16:57,200 --> 00:16:58,520 2% ownership. That's fine. 342 00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:01,760 It's just like, why I don't think I would like it as much is 343 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:05,720 just if I'm looking at ways to fade the team with the with the 344 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:08,400 really high owned guy, we all agree we want to do that in a 345 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:10,400 loss. I don't want to bet on a guy 346 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:12,440 whose path to scoring is predominantly driven by 347 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:15,079 touchdowns while simultaneously betting on his team to lose 348 00:17:15,319 --> 00:17:18,800 because like the guys that's what I was going to say are are 349 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:20,400 more correlated to their team winning. 350 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:25,079 So I like, to me it's easier to I, I, I hear that logic and I 351 00:17:25,079 --> 00:17:31,360 guess I just disagree with it because in a lot it doesn't 352 00:17:31,360 --> 00:17:33,720 matter how many team touchdowns there's going to be if you're 353 00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:38,440 going to outscore JS, if there's a bunch of team touchdowns, then 354 00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:41,120 you're more likely to get one for Barner and one for JSN. 355 00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:43,360 The the Vikings example is relevant. 356 00:17:43,360 --> 00:17:45,440 They scored one touchdown and Hawkinson caught it. 357 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:49,480 Like the the scenarios where I want them to score 1 touchdown 358 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:51,920 exactly. And I want the guy who has a 359 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:54,560 high TD profile that he could be the guy who catches 1TD. 360 00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:57,640 And then it's not JSN and it it is Barner, right? 361 00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:00,440 Like, I don't want a bunch of points, a ton of Seattle points. 362 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:01,360 More like, I think it makes sense. 363 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:04,680 Yeah. Bar Barner, Charbonnay is this 364 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:06,600 thing I actually have trouble with because like, Charbonnay is 365 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:07,680 kind of getting rolling downhill. 366 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:10,360 They're doing, they're doing the, you know, the style offense 367 00:18:10,360 --> 00:18:12,880 they want to do. They're playing their game and 368 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:16,200 they lose, you know, so Barner does feel a little bit easier to 369 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:19,080 see how he outscores JSN in a loss because it's just some 370 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:21,040 garbage touchdown he happens to get. 371 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:23,840 Why is why is it between AJ Barner and Mohammed? 372 00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:27,680 Like I I it's like the AJ Barner and who had reference? 373 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:30,040 It's a super bad joke. Why? 374 00:18:30,120 --> 00:18:31,280 Why is it between this and Mohammed? 375 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:36,800 Anyway, someone in the chat will get it, but I, I, I would just 376 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,120 say like if I'm, if I'm betting on that scenario, like instead 377 00:18:39,120 --> 00:18:42,120 of hoping that AJ Barner just take the softhold 1 touchdown, 378 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:44,320 I'm just playing their kicker or their defense and I'm playing 379 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:46,840 the reason it's AJ Barner or Mohammed is the tight end 380 00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:50,040 position again, like that was the reason that he stands out 381 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:52,000 over Charbonnay or. Anyone else like obviously the 382 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:55,400 the one touchdown thing can work, but it's one of those 383 00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:59,000 things that can work in hindsight, you know, like, oh, 384 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:01,800 like obviously that worked, but it's not the kind of thing that 385 00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:04,080 you would want to strategize around. 386 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:06,440 Do you see what I'm? Saying yes, thank you. 387 00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:07,960 Barner is Mcclevin. I appreciate it. 388 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:09,960 I'm going to get, I'm going to get back on track with AJ 389 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:12,360 Barner's not going to be played and we don't want to play him 390 00:19:12,360 --> 00:19:13,600 right. We're not trying to play AJ 391 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:15,160 Barner and no one's going to play AJ Barner. 392 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:18,760 So let's, let's move on the I, I want to play AJ Barner. 393 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:22,560 I think he's a great play. If you I don't really think he's 394 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:24,960 a very good play. I think he's a bad play. 395 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:26,160 I think he's a pretty bad play. Yeah. 396 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:34,520 All right, just so people know, cause 80% came in, you know, 397 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:37,480 there was there was like it's a little low and it I moved it up 398 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,400 to 82. So I don't disagree, but this 399 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:45,480 represents the third highest single play since at least 2020 400 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:48,520 because I've been doing this since 2020 and I have everything 401 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:51,080 a spreadsheet. So Cooper cut back in 20/21 was 402 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:59,840 91% and back in 2023 CD Lamb was 87%, but last year the highest 403 00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:02,440 owned was 78. There's usually someone in this 404 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:04,880 general range, but this is this is pretty high. 405 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:08,200 So I'm not, you know, I don't think I'm, I'm. 406 00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:12,680 So I think I'm giving. A we should go to Denver. 407 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:16,200 I, I do want to, I do want to like circle back. 408 00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:18,280 I don't want to like this isn't about barn. 409 00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:20,480 This is about the contest. We didn't talk about it last 410 00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:21,800 year. I've talked about it basically 411 00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:24,480 every year. We, we always fixate on the 412 00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:28,440 constraint of the you play one player from each team and then 413 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:31,360 we talk about all the teammates against each other. 414 00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:34,120 The other, there's two constraints in this contest. 415 00:20:34,120 --> 00:20:37,960 The other major constraint is the positional like 416 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,400 requirements, right? And it doesn't. 417 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:43,040 So when I talk about the tight end thing, just to explain this 418 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:46,520 to the audience, it doesn't require Barner to outscore JSN. 419 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:50,840 It just requires him to be the relatively best tight end play 420 00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:54,280 relative to his teammates out of all the tight end plays in the 421 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:56,320 tournament. And it's a really weak tight end 422 00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:58,000 field. And there's a there's AI think a 423 00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:01,600 strong possibility this year. There's no flex tight end and 424 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:04,280 the best tight end play is not the highest score on his team. 425 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:07,360 He's just the guy that made the most sense to the puzzle because 426 00:21:07,360 --> 00:21:10,680 he was closest to his teammates and so like, Barner could beat 427 00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:13,360 the guy by scoring 6 points. If Seattle's offense is shit 428 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:16,320 like there are there, that's probably not likely because 429 00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:18,400 there's probably going to be a better tight end from one of the 430 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:19,720 alumni. It's probably not likely because 431 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:22,160 the answer was that would make them not to play Seattle. 432 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:23,400 I was going to, yeah. That would make them 6. 433 00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:25,280 Points and they. Definitely not likely because 434 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:30,680 Tyler Loot missed that kick you. Guys are going to get the joke 435 00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:31,880 eventually. That was a nice take. 436 00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,600 Don't like it? It just wasn't very good. 437 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:38,800 No, yeah. Anyway. 438 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:43,160 Let's go, Let's go for the next team. 12 points can be, can be 439 00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:46,280 very playable. Yes, 1212 points. 440 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:48,840 It is a good point. As much as I disagree on Barter 441 00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,720 specifically, I I agree with your point holistically. 442 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:53,240 I don't think Barter's a crazy player or anything. 443 00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:54,400 I just don't think he's like a smash. 444 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:56,160 I think yeah, no, he's not a smash. 445 00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:59,480 Before we go to Denver, I do want to just get your thoughts 446 00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:03,880 on Sam Darnold, who I have a 2% and I think it's probably not 447 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:07,520 going to get played, but this is. 448 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,520 The type of. Team that tends to get the 449 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,160 quarterback, you know, tends to have some quarterback ownership. 450 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:15,760 Obviously I don't think it happens this year because of JSN 451 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:17,920 and no one really wants to play Darnold I don't think but. 452 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:20,520 Well, Darnold is viewed as the problem. 453 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:23,920 Yeah. Like he's viewed as the limited 454 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:27,080 30. 6% chance to make the Super Bowl, that that's the highest of 455 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,160 any team, and yet the quarterback won't probably be 456 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:33,080 played. What did did people play? 457 00:22:33,360 --> 00:22:35,960 So you said he's the type of quarterback that people normally 458 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:36,800 play. And that's true from the 459 00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:39,040 perspective of the 36% to make the Super Bowl. 460 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,680 Like you just said, he's not from the perspective that it's 461 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:43,680 in a very concentrated passing game. 462 00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:47,640 Did people play Stafford in the past when Cooper Cup was really 463 00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:48,760 high owned? Did people? 464 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,080 That's what I would look at. So because I don't think they 465 00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:54,320 did one the the year that I represent. 466 00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:57,120 I mean, they could have this because cup was 91%. 467 00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:00,920 So yeah, I mean it it literally, yeah. 468 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,280 It comes directly at the expense of the other guy. 469 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:07,120 So the whole thing is like if the Seahawks go to the Super 470 00:23:07,120 --> 00:23:12,040 Bowl was 2% that year, he was 2% and Darnold scores some points, 471 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:13,800 Everyone's going to tell themselves, well, I would just 472 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:15,440 do JSN. It's like what you were talking 473 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,920 about last night where people would would start to do the the 474 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:21,000 Josh Allen and then they'd get down to Cook and then they'll 475 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,400 just they'll switch to Drake May and James Cook or whatever. 476 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:25,560 Like if they'll put Darnold in their lineup, then they'll get 477 00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:27,360 down to like wider Seaver. Then they'll be like, actually, 478 00:23:27,360 --> 00:23:29,760 I want to just play JSN. If I'm if I'm picking Seattle to 479 00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:32,120 win the Super Bowl, I just want to play JSN. 480 00:23:32,120 --> 00:23:35,480 They're not going to the Super Bowl with JSN not leading their 481 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:37,320 offense. They're like AJ Barter's not 482 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,600 carrying him to the Super Bowl. No one's talking to you guys. 483 00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:44,400 And it's another another comp would be Mahomes from last year 484 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:46,480 where Travis Kelsey was big chalk. 485 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,840 Mahomes was only 6% and that was a bye week team you wanted. 486 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,160 You know, it's nice to have Mahomes in the Super Bowl, 487 00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:55,480 right? But people didn't play him 488 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:57,880 really. So I, I, I do think that Darnold 489 00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:01,120 will be pretty much unplayed. But just just wanted to note 490 00:24:01,120 --> 00:24:04,200 that because you know, you're getting your quarterback to the 491 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:05,520 Super Bowl, you get double points there. 492 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,320 It's usually something people are excited about. 493 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:11,640 In this case, they won't be. Which he's not even a high 494 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,400 scoring QB though. And JSN is such a high scoring 495 00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:17,120 receiver that it's it's a unique team. 496 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:19,160 I don't think people are going to play him and I don't think he 497 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,160 really should. No. 498 00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:26,440 At a quarterback we should play. It's a Segway to my, my biggest 499 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:30,480 take of this entire tournament. Can I cook for like 2 minutes on 500 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:31,760 Bodex? Go ahead. 501 00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:35,760 To be clear, I'm not saying that Pat is under projecting his 502 00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:38,880 ownership. I I hope that he isn't because 503 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:42,760 that that would make my, my entire, I don't think I am less 504 00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:46,400 effective. But like we're just talking 505 00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,880 about with JSN and Sam Darnold. I, I feel like the, the whole 506 00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,520 meta of this field is that you have these NFC quarterbacks that 507 00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,040 have really, really good teammates and you have these AFC 508 00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,120 quarterbacks that have very spread teammates. 509 00:24:58,360 --> 00:25:00,400 So it seems overwhelmingly likely. 510 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:05,760 I think that the the optimal quarterback is going to come 511 00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:09,000 from the AFC and as long as it's not the Texans in the Super 512 00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:12,280 Bowl, I think whichever AFC quarterback gets in the Super 513 00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:16,000 Bowl is definitely not guaranteed but is very likely to 514 00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:18,920 be the optimal quarterback because you have May with a very 515 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,640 spread out offense, you have Lawrence with a fairly spread 516 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,520 out offense, and you have Bonex with a fairly spread out 517 00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,240 offense. The Denver Broncos are 30% 518 00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:30,680 chance to make the Super Bowl, and Bonex is dealing with one of 519 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:32,840 the least concentrated offenses of anyone. 520 00:25:33,120 --> 00:25:35,240 He has the mobility, he has rushing equity. 521 00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:39,720 I I genuinely think if Bonex actually gets to the Super Bowl, 522 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,480 he's going to be against the NFC quarterback that has a way 523 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,360 higher level of teammate competition than him. 524 00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,160 He's going to have effectively an extra game because the Super 525 00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:50,000 Bowl counts twice over any other AFC quarterback. 526 00:25:50,360 --> 00:25:52,680 He's going to have at least, well, he's gonna have three 527 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,320 extra games over Lawrence or Allen, and he's gonna have at 528 00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:57,960 least 1 / 1 of Allen or Lawrence or May. 529 00:25:58,360 --> 00:26:01,040 It's a great take, but why are you throwing out all the NFC 530 00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:02,560 kibbies? What about like Jalen Hurts or 531 00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:04,200 Caleb Williams? Those teams are probably going 532 00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:06,360 to meet in the second round. One of those guys is probably. 533 00:26:06,360 --> 00:26:09,360 Going to play three games. Yeah, I mean, I mean, the Super 534 00:26:09,360 --> 00:26:11,080 Bowl equity on on the Bears is really bad. 535 00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:15,400 If if Caleb gets there, they for for sure Caleb could be optimal. 536 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:19,040 I I totally agree with that. I think if Hurts, if the Eagles 537 00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,920 get to the Super Bowl and it's Eagles, Denver, I think that 538 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:26,240 obviously there's possibilities for Hertz for sure, but I think 539 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:30,280 you would weigh you, you would win an A significant majority of 540 00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:34,680 simulations with Nicks, Barkley versus Hertz, Harvey or Sutton. 541 00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,160 I, I would, I would guess not in every single one. 542 00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:40,400 And if it's the Rams or if it's the Niners or if it's the 543 00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,840 Seahawks, you're I think, a heavy favorite with Nick's. 544 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:46,640 Pook, I don't think you're a heavy favorite over Purdy and 545 00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:49,040 Stafford. The way the offenses have worked 546 00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:50,880 this year, I don't think you're a heavy favorite. 547 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:53,920 I. Think a reasonably heavy 548 00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:55,920 favorite. The the 49er 7. 549 00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:59,040 The 49er 7 people that have Jennings, you have Athens and 550 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:02,960 Poo and his teammates. These guys don't like I. 551 00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:04,880 Don't. I think I think you're pretty 552 00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:06,280 like, I'm not saying you're guaranteed. 553 00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:09,040 Like I'm not saying Knicks has a the way to think about that 554 00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:11,480 though. Davis, like Purdy can spread 555 00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:14,880 around a bunch of touchdowns, but it becomes even if Purdy 556 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:18,800 outscores Knicks, it becomes Purdy over Knicks by more than 557 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,200 CMC over Harvey or CMC. Over sun. 558 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:23,240 And that I think would be larger. 559 00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:26,640 You'll be going against, I think you'll be going against CMC and 560 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,280 Harvey not OR. You know what I mean? 561 00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:31,200 Or or. Like, yeah. 562 00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,520 You're basically a 1V1 versus the other Bronco. 563 00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:37,400 You'll probably have a similar or you know, maybe you maybe you 564 00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:39,600 don't, maybe it's a Kittle, maybe there's some Kittle team 565 00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:45,200 and you have CMC or vice versa. But I don't know I I don't think 566 00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:46,400 the. The I it's actually. 567 00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:48,200 Probably even who you're fading you're. 568 00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:50,320 So I started to have started out. 569 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:52,800 It's very likely that the optimal quarterback is just 570 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:55,320 going is it's like a slight oversimplification, but I don't 571 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,000 think it's much of one that the optimal quarterback will simply 572 00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:00,440 be whichever quarterback outscores his teammates by the 573 00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:02,960 most number of that's right. And it's a good and I think that 574 00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:06,280 Bodic is very likely. I think he's actually the most 575 00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,240 likely to be that quarterback. And and he's been because he has 576 00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:12,080 double the Super Bowl odds of Josh Allen and Drake may double 577 00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:13,320 the Super Bowl odds of those guys. 578 00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:15,920 I, I don't, I understand why I, I get that he's going to be low 579 00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:17,000 owned because people don't like both. 580 00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:18,720 Well, because, because he also he gets the buy. 581 00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:23,720 So ownership by the field part, part of the, the issue for Nicks 582 00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,280 him versus the AFC quarterbacks. The buy would only hurt him 583 00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:29,240 versus NFC quarterbacks because if he gets to the Super Bowl, 584 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,280 he's still getting more games than the AFC guys. 585 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,480 Because if he, I know he still gets more games, but it's, but 586 00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:35,960 it's by 1 and he has to get to the Super Bowl to get there. 587 00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:38,400 So if he doesn't get to the Super Bowl, the buy does hurt 588 00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:40,040 him. If he doesn't get to the Super 589 00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:44,080 Bowl, he only gets two games. I can get two games just by 590 00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:46,840 getting to the conference championship game from the other 591 00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:48,160 AFC quarter. He doesn't get to the football. 592 00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,440 He's not going to the other. The other part of this is his 593 00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:52,800 teammates. The other guys can be optimal 594 00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:54,040 without getting to the Super Bowl. 595 00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:56,000 That's what I'm saying. It's like his teammates get the 596 00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:58,040 extra game to them. This is the part that that I 597 00:28:58,040 --> 00:28:59,200 don't think you're saying well enough. 598 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:03,240 Jacob is if May plays three games because he and then loses 599 00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,920 in the in the conference championship to to Denver like 600 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,920 it goes chalky by seed and and Knicks gets 4. 601 00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:12,560 May versus teammates is May's level of QB scoring is higher 602 00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:14,720 than Knicks's and his teammates are only going to get three 603 00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:16,880 games. Knicks teammates are going to 604 00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:19,360 get 4 Harvey and Sutton and they're going to get that double 605 00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:21,240 Super Bowl. And if one of them has two 606 00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:24,560 touchdowns in the Super Bowl, that gap with the QB and and the 607 00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:28,560 best Bronco could be pretty narrow compared to, I mean, yes, 608 00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:31,240 May's not or Allen. Allen has the exact same 609 00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,440 dynamic. You know, if Allen, this is this 610 00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:35,440 is the whole contest. It's why I was saying that thing 611 00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:38,760 on the tight end every year in our little spreadsheet with me 612 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:40,960 and Pat and Pete and Leone. Yeah, I've looked at way better 613 00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:42,680 play. But Allen can go nuclear. 614 00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:45,720 Allen, Allen can be optimal in three very easily. 615 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,360 And then you have you have Harvey or Sutton double points 616 00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:50,760 in the Super Bowl and you don't have a quarterback on the other 617 00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:53,520 side. You have GSN or Puka or CMC or 618 00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:57,520 Barkley or whoever else and yeah, you, you don't need the 619 00:29:57,520 --> 00:29:59,200 quarterback in the Super Bowl. Well, well, if Nick, if Nick 620 00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:02,240 goes to the Super Bowl, unless the Chargers beat the Patriots, 621 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:04,480 if Nick goes to the Super Bowl, Allen only gets two games. 622 00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:09,040 Well, the I mean the chargers are like 3 point dogs they're 623 00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:11,000 like they could easily beat the Patriots. 624 00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:12,920 Yeah, sure, everything's conceivable. 625 00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:16,240 I, I mean it's like it's like a 30 his ownership 40. 626 00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:18,760 No, it's like 45% or something right. 627 00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:20,840 It's it's like very it's not it's not conceivable. 628 00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:22,920 It's like AI mean it's closer to a coin float. 629 00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:27,720 Then there are some scenarios you're overstating the Knicks 630 00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:30,920 thing a little bit because there there are some scenarios where 631 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,400 he does get hurt even if he plays by the by, like, like 632 00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:35,880 Pat's saying and like we were just talking about. 633 00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:39,600 But I also think 38% your your broad point is right that Knicks 634 00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,040 is a good play at 6% for the same reason. 635 00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,000 I was just going to say every year when we do this little the 636 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:47,240 the spreadsheet, we do a bunch of teams, me and Pat and Leone 637 00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:52,040 and and dink and and and Pete and we track our teams. 638 00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:54,600 And I've always had a little tab where I like to actually track 639 00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,800 the actual scoring and start to get a feel for like what I think 640 00:30:57,800 --> 00:30:59,280 is going to be optimal to different positions. 641 00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:01,400 And This is why I keep harping this point on tight end. 642 00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,640 It's a it's like a learned thing where when I have gone through 643 00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:07,760 the different positions, I've learned that it's not always a 644 00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:10,800 top scorer to position even. And the biggest example is 645 00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:12,880 kicker. Last year there was like a 13 646 00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,760 point kicker, can't remember who it was that it could not be in 647 00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:18,560 A1 game loss because their D scored like 20 or something. 648 00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,040 And it was like, it can't be the kicker optimal because it has to 649 00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:23,440 be the D or it was like a really good position player score. 650 00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:25,800 And the the optimal kicker ended up being a kicker who scored 651 00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:30,480 like 2 points because the reason was he didn't have any like all 652 00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:32,640 the kickers and losing games had like two or three points. 653 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:34,080 So they were all super, super low. 654 00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:36,760 Or maybe it was 3 points. It was like Boswell with three 655 00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:40,200 ended up actually being optimal because, which was frustrating 656 00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:42,560 because he was the chalk. He was a chalk and he didn't 657 00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:45,720 even score any points. But the the skill position in 658 00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:49,920 lost guys that scored points, knocked out the kickers that 659 00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:52,560 actually scored some points. And so it forced it down to 660 00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,560 these like few teams that were either soft fades or hard fades. 661 00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:57,120 They were like none of the kickers did well. 662 00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:00,000 And Boswell's like 3 points was actually very live even though 663 00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,640 it was crap. My point is you get all these 664 00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:05,760 different weird constraints when the team scores all these 665 00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:07,680 points. That's going to work in Nix's 666 00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:10,080 favor if they do go to the Super Bowl like you were saying, 667 00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:13,120 because if he does spread everything out like he can, the 668 00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:17,240 the like, even if he's not the highest scoring QB, even if may 669 00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:19,680 out scores him or something, there can be these benefits for 670 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:23,680 him by being better than, you know, all of his teammates. 671 00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:25,880 And they're not the right answer at the other positions. 672 00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,240 And there's nothing that disqualifies him from being the 673 00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:30,360 optimal QB. But the thing that happens to 674 00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:34,040 like Darnold not being if it's a Denver, Seattle thing is that 675 00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:37,200 JSN has to be the wide receiver because he scored so many 676 00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:38,280 points. When you start to look at the 677 00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:40,160 numbers, you're like, OK, it has to be JSN. 678 00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,840 So Darnold's disqualified. The math can't work out for him, 679 00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,080 even though he scored the same amount of points as Nick's. 680 00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:48,840 But there won't be anyone on Denver that disqualifies Nick's 681 00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:51,000 at a different position. I think it's main point. 682 00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,480 That's that's my point. I mean, what I'm trying to say 683 00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,720 is if you, if you think the odds are wrong, then you have a take 684 00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:58,480 that's fine. But like, if you accept that the 685 00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,440 ESPN model that says Denver's 30% to make the Super Bowl is 686 00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:04,920 more or less correct, then, well, this is this is a good 687 00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:06,720 point, though, because it is fake and it's not going to 688 00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:08,240 happen. OK, well, sure, that's. 689 00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:11,640 What I'm saying like if your take is it's fake and it's not 690 00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,680 going to happen then whatever. Like if if no I accept that the 691 00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:19,240 30% is more or less correct, then to justify 6% being an 692 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:22,280 efficient ownership. You're basically saying in the 693 00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:26,200 world the Bone Knicks makes the Super Bowl, he's only 20% to be 694 00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,440 the optimal quarterback. That is just not true. 695 00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:31,200 Like there's just no world in which he is only the optimal 696 00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,600 quarterback in one out of five circumstances that he makes the 697 00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:35,480 Super Bowl. You can't make that math work to 698 00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:37,000 me. I'm not saying he's guaranteed 699 00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:39,520 to be the quarterback, but he's at least 50% to be the 700 00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:41,040 quarterback if he makes the Super Bowl. 701 00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:44,120 Like so I think his ownership. I'm not saying that your 702 00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:46,560 ownership projection is wrong. I don't know if it's that high. 703 00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,200 Should be way higher. I don't know if it's fifty per 704 00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:51,680 at least. Well, I mean it it could be 705 00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:53,680 close to that. I don't think it's the the thing 706 00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:57,480 that I think the dynamic that really hurts the Knicks play is 707 00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:01,400 that you have so Knicks is like, hey, spread out quarterback, you 708 00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:04,120 know you're going to get 3 plus games. 709 00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:06,680 You know, in the sense that you're going to get 2 or 4 with 710 00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:08,560 Knicks. But yeah, let's call it 3 plus 711 00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:13,000 games because it helps my point. And it's like, you know, he's 712 00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:14,600 going to outscore his teammates by a bunch. 713 00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:17,480 And once you hit that, you know, once you get to that four-game 714 00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:19,960 version, it's great. But you have the exact same 715 00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:23,880 dynamic with Allen and and May. And yes, with Allen, you have 716 00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:28,679 Cook, but the passing game doesn't really go through Cook. 717 00:34:28,679 --> 00:34:31,880 There's there's certain types of Bills games where it's like it's 718 00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:33,840 all Allen. He's just like crushing. 719 00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:35,880 Sometimes Cook comes along for the ride if they're they're 720 00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:39,679 putting it on somebody. But he there are there are 721 00:34:39,679 --> 00:34:43,600 outcomes where Allen is necessary and cook didn't really 722 00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:45,719 do anything, which makes me even more necessary. 723 00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:49,679 And then may has, you know, very similar dynamic to to Nick's. 724 00:34:49,679 --> 00:34:54,480 So those guys and there's two of them can get there in in three 725 00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:57,200 games. To your point, if the bills get 726 00:34:57,200 --> 00:35:00,240 3, the patriots only got 1, which helps Nick, but only one 727 00:35:00,240 --> 00:35:02,960 of them can get no. But so there's an NFC team too. 728 00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:05,400 There's definitely an NFC and then there's the plays three 729 00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:07,080 games. And there's also an NFC team 730 00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:10,120 that plays four at minimum, which like, see, I think you 731 00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:14,560 really need Seattle or else you get, I mean, cause in some 732 00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:17,800 sense, well, OK, yes, Rams or Niners would would make sense. 733 00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:22,120 But if, if the Rams in Seattle, I think really work in favor of 734 00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,960 Knicks, you're, you guys were saying the Eagles and the bears 735 00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:26,560 are not likely. The Eagles and Bears are the two 736 00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:27,840 and three. The eagles are reasonably 737 00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:29,600 likely. The Eagles are reasonably 738 00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,200 likely. And when you do the Eagles plus 739 00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:35,600 the bears, one of them is, is really pretty likely to play 740 00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:37,880 three games because they're they, if they both when they 741 00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:40,760 play each other and it's a lock. If one of them gets upset, they 742 00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:44,000 get a host the next round and the, or the other one that wins 743 00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:46,760 gets the host the next round and is going to be favored to move. 744 00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:49,000 So if the Eagles lose in the first round, bears become pretty 745 00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:50,360 big fake. Not huge favorites, but 746 00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:52,280 favorites to move on and vice versa. 747 00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:53,120 Maybe not huge. I don't. 748 00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:57,320 I don't know how it all work out, but I do think one of Caleb 749 00:35:57,320 --> 00:36:02,520 Williams or Jalen Hurts getting three games and one and like 750 00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:06,640 Drake May getting three games could be an outcome in the same 751 00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:09,240 playoff where Knicks gets 4. And so when you're saying it's 752 00:36:09,240 --> 00:36:12,200 like it's 50% likely to be bone next when the Broncos make the 753 00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:14,520 Super Bowl. Also Trevor Lawrence, if Trevor 754 00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:17,000 Lawrence gets I think Lawrence, I think all of these guys, like 755 00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:19,320 everyone else that you're suggesting, I think are all 756 00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:21,000 great plays. Like Knicks is my favorite 757 00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:23,440 mostly. I think that Allen and May 758 00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:25,760 consolidating all of this ownership just does not make a 759 00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:27,600 lot of sense to me. Like, well, I don't think it 760 00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:29,480 happens in the same. Well, again, I'm not saying it 761 00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:31,440 doesn't make sense in the sense that your ownership projection 762 00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:32,400 is wrong. I think your ownership 763 00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:33,200 projection. No, no. 764 00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:35,240 I'm just saying I think those guys are going to be really 765 00:36:35,240 --> 00:36:37,720 overplayed. That's all a factor of Allen. 766 00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:39,520 Allen is the one that's going to be overplayed. 767 00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,160 He's going on the road at the Jaguars, who are a good team, 768 00:36:42,240 --> 00:36:44,560 and then he's going to go probably if he wins on the road 769 00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:46,120 at the Broncos, who are a good team. 770 00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:49,040 And if he doesn't win two games, it does get tricky. 771 00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:51,680 He could get there in. Two, you guys, do you guys care 772 00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:55,840 that Nix is likely to put up a really brutal score, 773 00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:59,000 particularly in Round 2? Does that does that matter? 774 00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:01,000 At all absolutely matters. This is the other thing I was 775 00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:03,280 going to get at is there's a lot of scoring. 776 00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:05,840 They're going to play the Texans at home. 777 00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:09,520 Jacob, I've done this. I've done the same thing with 778 00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:11,480 plays before. And then you, you get into the 779 00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:15,400 contest and look at it and you're like, oh, wait, it's not 780 00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:18,040 just in theory, not all the crazy score the same amount of 781 00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,280 points. You're like, this has to score 782 00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,400 points for him to be like the obvious play. 783 00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:25,160 Because some of the quarterback's going to have some 784 00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:27,600 big games, like Jalen's going to have some monster games. 785 00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:31,040 Against everyone but the Texans, I would expect, particularly 786 00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:34,000 because of like, I, I know we've all had this experience of 787 00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:36,640 watching Bo Nicks where you're just like you're watching the 788 00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:39,960 game and he's just like running around and running around and he 789 00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:41,720 throws like the worst pass you've ever seen. 790 00:37:41,720 --> 00:37:44,080 But somehow Troy Franklin is completely uncovered. 791 00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:46,920 And like they're at the three yard line and Jaleel McLaughlin 792 00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:49,880 gets stuffed three times and Sean Payton goes for it and then 793 00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:52,840 Nicks converts a touchdown to fucking Adam Who? 794 00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:54,440 Put on the Broncos game right now. 795 00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:58,520 Yeah, we've all we've all, we've all lived through this. 796 00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:01,800 So like I started out when we first talked about this and 797 00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:05,480 Jacob said Bo Knicks, I was like, there's not a chance in 798 00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:06,720 hell. And then I've been sitting and 799 00:38:06,720 --> 00:38:11,440 thinking about it and I've ultimately determined that one, 800 00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:15,800 if you if you're like, if the heuristic is AFC quarterback 801 00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:18,320 greater than NFC quarterback because particularly of the 802 00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:20,480 running back projections, I wholly agree. 803 00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:23,320 And then if you take that further down the path, you do 804 00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:25,640 get to next as being a particular. 805 00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:29,960 The AFCNFC thing only works if you're really fixated on Seattle 806 00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:33,080 and the Rams being the two big favorites in the NFC. 807 00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:34,760 But if it's another team in the NFC. 808 00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:38,360 Well, that the Eagles are the. Eagles are the next team, the 809 00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:40,760 Bears are tied as the next team after that. 810 00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:43,160 So if we're just locking in. You know the. 811 00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:45,800 The Super Bowl odds this year, they are what they are. 812 00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:48,200 I don't know that I buy them as being even as. 813 00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:51,160 I don't I don't know how to box them either, but the odds are 814 00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:55,560 what they are. So Fischer's saying I Jacob 815 00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:57,440 probably wants to get to like 15, and we're treating him like 816 00:38:57,440 --> 00:38:59,440 he wants to get to 30. It Is that where you want to get 817 00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:00,920 to or you? Well, I think I think his 818 00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:03,040 optimal ownership should be about 15. 819 00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:05,720 I think his ownership is going to be 6, and as a result, I'm 820 00:39:05,720 --> 00:39:08,080 playing 35. OK. 821 00:39:08,240 --> 00:39:09,960 Nick's, I just think it's really wrong. 822 00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:12,840 So I'm going to play way over. But even 35 is 60 probably 823 00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:15,120 right? Yeah, like I'm going to play way 824 00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:17,280 over what I think it should be because I think he's owned way 825 00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:20,040 less than he should be. If his actual ownership was 15. 826 00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:22,200 Let's talk about the other Broncos. 827 00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:24,800 We play 15. Yeah, let's talk about the other 828 00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:25,280 Broncos. Yeah. 829 00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:28,160 I don't think anyone is saying the ownership here is wrong. 830 00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:31,520 I think we're all, I do think Knicks is going to get steamed 831 00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:33,880 after this discussion. I do think he's going to end up 832 00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:35,920 10 or 12. Like I don't, I don't actually 833 00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:37,560 think he will because I think there's better plays. 834 00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:40,480 I prefer Hertz at six than Knicks at 6%. 835 00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:43,200 I don't think Hertz will be 6%. Hertz will be more we'll get. 836 00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:45,640 We'll get to him. I don't think it'll be massively 837 00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:46,720 owned, but I don't think he'll be sick. 838 00:39:46,720 --> 00:39:48,480 So if you want, let's circle back on Nix. 839 00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:51,840 Nix I do think will be low owned because it's frankly, he gets 840 00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:54,960 gross and that's you don't want to click it. 841 00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:57,160 But I think he's I do think he's a good play at 6%. 842 00:39:57,160 --> 00:40:00,360 I don't I don't want to play 35% because it's a good play. 843 00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:03,240 Jacob just said, I don't think people want to click Sutton or 844 00:40:03,240 --> 00:40:06,240 Harvey all that bad, do they? Well, you know. 845 00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:09,640 So this is the this is what I wanted to get your thoughts on. 846 00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:14,560 Sutton has been someone I have raised every single time time 847 00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:16,560 I've done this. When you do playoff best ball, 848 00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:18,840 Harvey goes first, Sutton goes shortly after. 849 00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:22,160 But there's, you know, the report that JK Dobbins will be 850 00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:25,920 back and. Not until not until the 851 00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:27,640 conference championship, according to Peyton. 852 00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:30,760 But that still has a pretty big impact if you're bet. 853 00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:32,760 I mean, if you're if you're taking the Harvey Super Bowl, 854 00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:35,560 that feels gross to have Harvey. If Dobbins, it feels really 855 00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:37,480 gross to have Harvey. So that's going to hurt Harvey. 856 00:40:37,720 --> 00:40:41,320 And I've just heard like a lot of people liking Sutton, and I 857 00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:44,680 think in part because people don't love Denver, I've got some 858 00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:48,680 soft fade on Denver, Denver defense up at 18%, which by the 859 00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:52,840 way, for a team that has a 30% chance to make Super Bowl, I 860 00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:57,080 have a 25% total fade, soft and hard fade on, on Denver, which 861 00:40:57,080 --> 00:41:01,440 is really high, really high. And it took me a few iterations 862 00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:04,280 to get there because that's not what we typically see. 863 00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:09,240 But I I do think like Baltimore two years ago when it was Lamar 864 00:41:09,240 --> 00:41:12,320 and no one and no one really wanted to play anyone else. 865 00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:14,760 They were 23. Or do people just love playing 866 00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:16,800 Henry? What year was that? 867 00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:21,840 They were they were the 1. Was that in 20/20/2020? 868 00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:26,760 Because that that to me is the one seed that most resembles how 869 00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:28,760 people feel about Denver. I don't think I have that. 870 00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:30,960 Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown were way sexier. 871 00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:34,240 Plays the Titans Titans. The Titans fake one seed was 872 00:41:34,240 --> 00:41:36,840 2019. Yeah, I don't have that yet. 873 00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:39,560 I wasn't doing it in 2019 all. Right. 874 00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:42,360 How funny did we basically have two fake 1 seeds this year? 875 00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:45,840 I I don't know that they're I just don't believe it any it's a 876 00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:48,400 wide open Who's Davis? The chiefs aren't hitting the 877 00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:50,320 bracket, dude. There's no like who's the 878 00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:51,280 favorite then? Like. 879 00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:53,840 That's what I said. Well, everyone's acting like the 880 00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:54,920 Bills are the. Favorite I think. 881 00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:57,840 You lose on Sunday. Like that's everyone so. 20/19 882 00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:00,360 was the rate, so 2020 ones the year you're talking about the 883 00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:05,160 the Titans were 16% total faded in 2021. 884 00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:07,400 Who people like? Yeah, everyone just played Henry 885 00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:09,240 when they like Sutton or Harvey. Yeah. 886 00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:11,960 OK. But that was 25%. 887 00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:14,560 The Titans that year were. They were not. 888 00:42:14,720 --> 00:42:16,920 They were not. Plus, 6:50 to win the Super Bowl 889 00:42:16,920 --> 00:42:19,680 going into the into the. No, no, they were like, they 890 00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:21,600 were like the 11th. Well, because they were, they 891 00:42:21,600 --> 00:42:23,440 were home underdogs to the Chiefs, right? 892 00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:24,480 They. Were. 893 00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:25,680 Lower. They were going to play the 894 00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:29,160 Chiefs in their first. They were 21% to make Super Bowl 895 00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:30,640 that year. Titans. 896 00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:33,200 Titans Yeah, that's what happened. 897 00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:36,440 To make this as as one seed, that's so fucking funny. 898 00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:39,640 So what's the the Broncos are the favorite to win the AFC. 899 00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:41,280 What's what are they to win the AFC this year? 900 00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:45,800 The Broncos, they're like 30 to 33, depending on 30 to 33, Yeah. 901 00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:49,000 The point I was making about the Broncos being a fake one seed is 902 00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:51,680 because the Chiefs aren't in. I basically think every team but 903 00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:54,520 the Steelers is like pretty live to win. 904 00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:57,000 Right. And the Broncos play 1 fewer 905 00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:59,320 game, which is Sutton versus Harvey. 906 00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:01,720 Just some thoughts there. It can hurt your point too, 907 00:43:01,720 --> 00:43:04,400 though, Jacob, the Broncos play 1 fewer game. 908 00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:07,640 I really, I get all that. I mean, the other half of my 909 00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:10,840 Denver take is not only the pro bonics pro Denver take. 910 00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:15,400 It's I also think that the Denver D and kicker and full 911 00:43:15,400 --> 00:43:18,160 fate are fantastic. Like I, I think like Harvey and 912 00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:21,800 Sutton, I'm oversimplifying and you guys made like a lot of 913 00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:24,160 great points about all the different intricacies of how 914 00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:26,640 everything can play out that I I accept and agree with. 915 00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:30,920 But like if if someone just came to you and they gave you the 916 00:43:30,920 --> 00:43:34,080 Gray Sports Almanac and they were like Denver makes the Super 917 00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:36,040 Bowl, who would you want? I would want Knicks. 918 00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:39,720 If they tell me Denver plays exactly 2 games, I would want 919 00:43:39,720 --> 00:43:42,320 Sutton or Harvey. And if they told me Denver loses 920 00:43:42,320 --> 00:43:44,480 their first game, I would want to fade them. 921 00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:48,680 I think that Sutton and Harvey, their total ownership 922 00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:52,960 cumulatively is going to substantially outpace that they 923 00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:56,040 actually are optimal. That's a massive simplification. 924 00:43:56,040 --> 00:43:58,440 What you just did because if you did that same exercise with 925 00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:01,520 Seattle, I would say if they go to the Super Bowl, I want JSN 926 00:44:01,640 --> 00:44:04,680 like 99%. If Denver goes to the Super 927 00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:08,480 Bowl, I want bow Knicks by like the hair on my chin. 928 00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:12,760 Like I also want some Sutton and I also want some Harvey. 929 00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:15,440 And as you got to play what happened? 930 00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:18,040 What happened in the AFC? What about the the quarterback? 931 00:44:18,360 --> 00:44:20,360 Did Mayor Allen get three games? Did Lawrence? 932 00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:23,880 You guys are all saying that Denver's so fraudulent if they 933 00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:25,840 do make the Super Bowl, maybe they get blown out. 934 00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:28,880 Sutton scores the one touchdown. Nick scores like 10 points in 935 00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:30,760 the double. You know the double .1. 936 00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:34,520 And Sutton actually is clearly the wide receiver play cuz he 937 00:44:34,520 --> 00:44:36,800 gets the double points. If they don't score points in 938 00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:39,480 the Super Bowl, the double thing for Nick's doesn't matter, 939 00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:41,480 right? I mean, that's a huge part of 940 00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:42,920 it, yeah. He's got to go to the Super. 941 00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:45,760 Bowl win, Super Bowl MVP for you to be like super stoked about 942 00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:49,800 having be clear, Ben, you, you want Nixon the Super Bowl by the 943 00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:54,040 hair on your chin or the hair on your lip there on my lip right 944 00:44:54,040 --> 00:44:54,320 here. Yeah. 945 00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:57,400 OK, so he's a good play the other. 946 00:44:57,880 --> 00:45:00,400 The other angle I'd bring up for Sutton and and again, this is 947 00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:03,160 like less of an ownership projection criticism than like a 948 00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:05,840 play criticism. But like there, there are three 949 00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:07,760 plausible matchups, right that they get in Round 2. 950 00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:10,200 They get the bills. It was the hardest match up all 951 00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:12,840 year for outside wide receivers. Or they get the Texans, which is 952 00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:14,840 Derek Stingley. Or they get the Chargers who you 953 00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:16,880 want to run on. None of those are fun. 954 00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:19,880 Like if they if they lose in round one, I think Sutton is 955 00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:24,160 like like if someone told you the Steelers lose in one game 956 00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:27,000 and Denver loses in one game. Sutton and Harvey are like 957 00:45:27,200 --> 00:45:30,720 drawing even with Metcalf and Gainwell to be in the optimal. 958 00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:36,640 Yeah. I think so I'd rather I'd never 959 00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:40,080 be more likely to win met half, but yeah, they're they're not 960 00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:44,520 it's not a huge difference. Let let me on the ownership. 961 00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:48,640 I I do want to get your guys thoughts specifically on the 962 00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:50,800 ownership for Sutton and Harvey because. 963 00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:54,160 I feel like, I feel like the boomers just love Sutton. 964 00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:56,240 It's so love. Sutton I think, yeah. 965 00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:59,160 And so Sutton, I just literally raised up even more. 966 00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:02,440 A couple people in the chat have been saying, you know, Sutton 967 00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:04,440 need to come up. I'm Sutton at 50%. 968 00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:07,400 The more the more Jacob talks, the more I want to jam Sutton. 969 00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:09,680 I'm like, I mean, he doesn't understand all these other 970 00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:10,880 iterations. He's Harvey. 971 00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:13,320 Harvey strikes me as a pretty good play. 972 00:46:13,320 --> 00:46:16,880 If he's sub 20%, Harvey will project better than Sutton 973 00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:20,080 project. Yeah, I want no part of Sutton 974 00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:22,160 at that ownership, but I I could see how it gets there. 975 00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:26,160 So I. I think I think people feel more 976 00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:29,400 more comfortable with Sutton because it's like, oh, if they 977 00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:32,440 lose, I've got I have the receiver, so it's fine. 978 00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:34,400 I don't have to like bet on Denver. 979 00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:36,240 I don't think people will take Knicks because they don't want 980 00:46:36,240 --> 00:46:38,240 to bet on Denver. I think they'll take Denver D 981 00:46:38,240 --> 00:46:39,520 because they don't want to bet on Denver. 982 00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:41,600 And I don't think they'll take Harvey because they don't want 983 00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:42,880 to bet on Denver. I don't think there's a lot of 984 00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:44,840 people want to bet on Denver. So Sutton. 985 00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:46,840 And frankly, if you do want to bet on Denver, Sutton is the 986 00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:49,400 best way to do it. And they're not a fun team. 987 00:46:49,640 --> 00:46:52,520 They're not a fun team. Yeah, I mean, they're the number 988 00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:54,240 one seed. They're they've been very good 989 00:46:54,240 --> 00:46:56,840 all year. And to Jacob's point, the odds 990 00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:59,120 are strongly in their favor. This is why I think Nyx is going 991 00:46:59,120 --> 00:47:00,720 to come in higher than you're thinking, too. 992 00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:03,280 I do think people are going to think about you think you think 993 00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:06,040 Nyx comes in a little bit. I do think there's enough, 994 00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:08,560 there's enough sharp people in this contest that are going to 995 00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:12,000 think about it and go, you know, this isn't the year to play Josh 996 00:47:12,000 --> 00:47:13,240 Allen. Historically, Josh Allen's come 997 00:47:13,240 --> 00:47:15,240 in really, really high. But James Cook had a really 998 00:47:15,240 --> 00:47:17,880 great year and they're not a two seed this year. 999 00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:21,360 The Bills are always home team, home team in the next round. 1000 00:47:21,520 --> 00:47:24,360 This year, their Rd. Rd. against two really good 1001 00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:27,080 defenses. It's a tough path for the Bills 1002 00:47:27,440 --> 00:47:29,880 and I think if you look at the bracket for three seconds, you 1003 00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:31,800 tell yourself, well, maybe I just want to play James Cook. 1004 00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:33,480 Maybe I want to go play a quarterback from a team I 1005 00:47:33,480 --> 00:47:36,000 actually think is going to like make a long run. 1006 00:47:36,160 --> 00:47:38,760 It's tough. Like I I've done like a playoff. 1007 00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:41,720 Obviously I'm not doing like a bunch of underdog or stuff like 1008 00:47:41,720 --> 00:47:43,360 that, but I feel like a playoff contest. 1009 00:47:43,360 --> 00:47:45,600 I do a draft every year that's like $100 buy in or whatever. 1010 00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:47,560 And I got one of the top picks and I was sitting there and I 1011 00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:49,480 was having to think about it and Alan made a lot of sense. 1012 00:47:49,480 --> 00:47:52,240 And I was I didn't want to buy into them making a run this year 1013 00:47:52,240 --> 00:47:53,720 because I think their path is tough. 1014 00:47:54,160 --> 00:47:56,800 Well, maybe Nix comes up. Maybe Nix is more like 8%. 1015 00:47:56,800 --> 00:47:59,320 And Harvey actually comes down a little bit because the the 1016 00:47:59,320 --> 00:48:04,000 Dobbins thing, you know, it just people I think are just going to 1017 00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:05,560 have a hard time clicking him. So. 1018 00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:08,320 And I don't think Sutton is going to get much higher than 1019 00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:09,840 this. So maybe, maybe I do actually 1020 00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:11,160 have Nix a couple percentage low. 1021 00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:13,480 Let's move on though. He seems aggressive. 1022 00:48:13,600 --> 00:48:14,760 Yeah, Yeah, we do. Got to move on. 1023 00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:17,920 All right, let's go. Which two seed do you guys want 1024 00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:19,720 to do first? We're 48 minutes and we've gone 1025 00:48:19,720 --> 00:48:22,320 through the 2. We're we're, we're an hour in 1026 00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:24,160 two teams. Yeah, Yeah, we are. 1027 00:48:24,320 --> 00:48:26,120 You guys have a lot of thoughts. Yeah. 1028 00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:29,960 Which which two seed? I want to do the bears because 1029 00:48:29,960 --> 00:48:32,880 I, I'm, I don't, I'd have no sense of what this is going to 1030 00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:36,560 be. So dude, just let me say this to 1031 00:48:36,560 --> 00:48:39,320 you. If you are fading the fucking 1032 00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:43,200 Chicago Bears in this contest, if you're part of this 12%, grow 1033 00:48:43,200 --> 00:48:44,600 up. Grow up. 1034 00:48:45,120 --> 00:48:47,080 Truly. What? 1035 00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:48,320 Why? What do you mean? 1036 00:48:48,320 --> 00:48:51,160 But now I'm gonna join them. I'm definitely gonna fail. 1037 00:48:51,200 --> 00:48:55,800 I wanna join them. They're 5050 to win round one. 1038 00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:58,040 They're a perfectly acceptable faith team. 1039 00:48:58,120 --> 00:49:01,160 I gotta hear where there's optimism in our chat. 1040 00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:05,240 Dink, who's a lifelong Bears fan, was like, already so sad 1041 00:49:05,240 --> 00:49:06,520 because. They're playing with Packers. 1042 00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:08,680 You can't. You can't do dink. 1043 00:49:08,720 --> 00:49:10,840 Dink is the exact opposite of a Homer. 1044 00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:14,680 Dink is Dink is forever. He is such a fatalist. 1045 00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:18,360 He he, he doesn't, he like, he will not believe that the Bears 1046 00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:20,480 are going to win. The Super Bowl before he said he 1047 00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:23,960 knows the Packers win. At the end of the day, Loveland 1048 00:49:23,960 --> 00:49:26,040 feels low. Would be my first thought. 1049 00:49:26,120 --> 00:49:28,760 Yeah. So I, I, I basically heard no 1050 00:49:28,760 --> 00:49:30,160 Loveland. I went around listening to some 1051 00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:34,240 pods. It's like, yeah, it I heard, I 1052 00:49:34,240 --> 00:49:39,200 heard DJ Moore, I heard Kyle. The thing about the thing about 1053 00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:42,200 Loveland is I didn't actually start to run routes until Week 1054 00:49:42,200 --> 00:49:45,960 16. And most of the players that 1055 00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:49,680 weren't still in their famousy playoffs are not aware of how. 1056 00:49:50,000 --> 00:49:52,240 And his two really good games were 17 and 18. 1057 00:49:52,240 --> 00:49:54,000 So I mean it was in the. National. 1058 00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:56,720 TV game. It was a national TV game. 1059 00:49:56,720 --> 00:49:59,080 Everyone was watching, though, because it was Christmas, 1060 00:49:59,080 --> 00:50:01,840 Hollywood weekend. You know, like Hollywood 1061 00:50:02,000 --> 00:50:04,480 holiday. I'm specifically I'm listening 1062 00:50:04,480 --> 00:50:08,240 to pods of of I'm trying to get outside my bubble. 1063 00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:12,320 So I'm I'm literally trying to figure out what everyone's going 1064 00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:15,680 to play. So if I just listen to like, you 1065 00:50:15,680 --> 00:50:18,600 know, like I didn't actually listen to to Ben and Sean 1066 00:50:18,600 --> 00:50:21,400 because I'm like, they're just gonna tell me who I want to 1067 00:50:21,400 --> 00:50:22,680 play. I'm not. 1068 00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:25,000 You didn't do a show on it. That was from last. 1069 00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:26,280 That was from last year. I saw it. 1070 00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:27,960 I saw it stealing bananas when I didn't. 1071 00:50:28,000 --> 00:50:30,400 I didn't. Well, I guess it would have been 1072 00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:31,480 helpful. Yeah. 1073 00:50:32,160 --> 00:50:34,000 I don't think last year's would have given you much. 1074 00:50:34,720 --> 00:50:35,960 Yeah, I would have turned that one off anyway. 1075 00:50:36,240 --> 00:50:40,880 But I specifically, it was like, I want to find, you know, if 1076 00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:42,960 there's there's some other thoughts out there to help me 1077 00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:45,760 get outside the bubble. I wanted them and I was 1078 00:50:45,760 --> 00:50:48,360 surprised I didn't hear as much Loveland love. 1079 00:50:48,440 --> 00:50:51,040 It's not that like he wasn't mentioned or anything at all, 1080 00:50:51,040 --> 00:50:53,480 but it wasn't. He wasn't assumed to be the 1081 00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:56,720 chalk and he wasn't like a Gold Star tight end play for for. 1082 00:50:56,840 --> 00:51:01,640 See, he feels so obvious like it because I I think Gretsch just 1083 00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:04,480 said this earlier, but like tight end can kind of function 1084 00:51:04,480 --> 00:51:07,640 as a soft fade. I'll get him up a little bit. 1085 00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:10,800 I'll move him up a little. Like skeptical at first too, 1086 00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:13,240 because his production was so late in the season. 1087 00:51:13,240 --> 00:51:15,240 But when you really think about it, and if you go look at the 1088 00:51:15,240 --> 00:51:18,160 numbers at all, like he's a really strong play. 1089 00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:20,240 I mean, he's gonna be the tight end probably. 1090 00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:23,640 Cuz like who else? Like, I mean, like you guys 1091 00:51:23,640 --> 00:51:24,760 already touched on him yesterday. 1092 00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:27,760 But you know, it used to be in this tournament, you always got 1093 00:51:27,760 --> 00:51:30,200 all the best tight ends. You got Kelsey, you got Andrews, 1094 00:51:30,200 --> 00:51:32,560 you got Kittle. Like, and now it's just not the 1095 00:51:32,600 --> 00:51:34,280 only really elite tight end is Kittle. 1096 00:51:34,880 --> 00:51:38,280 Obviously, there's a hard cap on his ownership because of CMC. 1097 00:51:38,920 --> 00:51:41,880 Like, yeah, it's just like, like, are people going to play? 1098 00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:44,240 Like, I get that Loveland's a little uncomfortable, but his 1099 00:51:44,240 --> 00:51:46,120 other team mates? Because even if you decide 1100 00:51:46,120 --> 00:51:48,880 you're not playing Loveland here, like you're still throwing 1101 00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:51,160 a dart at the board. I feel like between Swift and 1102 00:51:51,160 --> 00:51:53,920 Burden and Rome and more. Whereas at least with Loveland, 1103 00:51:53,920 --> 00:51:55,720 you can just go, well, I need a tight end, so I'm just going to 1104 00:51:55,720 --> 00:51:57,120 take my tight end. I don't even have to think about 1105 00:51:57,120 --> 00:51:59,320 the rest of these Bears. Where is the other ones? 1106 00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:01,520 It's like, I have to take Schultz over Collins. 1107 00:52:01,520 --> 00:52:05,080 I have to take Strange over ETN. I have to take Henry over. 1108 00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:07,960 Like that's why Loveland's, that's why Loveland's 1109 00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:11,400 ownership's going to win because you don't have to fade somebody. 1110 00:52:11,400 --> 00:52:14,920 You're right. Yeah, I don't know. 1111 00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:17,560 I, I just, I heard a lot of other Bears that weren't 1112 00:52:17,560 --> 00:52:20,480 Loveland today. And so I think Loveland and 1113 00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:23,280 Loveland's the exact type of play that I would over project 1114 00:52:23,280 --> 00:52:25,120 the ownership on because I want to play. 1115 00:52:25,240 --> 00:52:27,240 That's what I thought. That's what I thought last 1116 00:52:27,240 --> 00:52:28,640 night. I was kind of saying, I thought 1117 00:52:28,640 --> 00:52:31,960 you were one of the big misses I did last year. 1118 00:52:32,000 --> 00:52:36,320 I think my biggest miss last year was Bucky Irving, who was 1119 00:52:36,320 --> 00:52:39,840 not chalk, even though he had just been smashing down the 1120 00:52:39,840 --> 00:52:42,640 stretch because he's a rookie running back. 1121 00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:46,040 And Mike Evans. Mike Evans, Yeah, But I'm saying 1122 00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:49,640 is DeAndre Swift, Mike Evans, Andre, Mike Evans here. 1123 00:52:50,120 --> 00:52:53,040 It's like, dude, first of all, here's here's the deal. 1124 00:52:53,600 --> 00:52:56,120 This is a cold. Derrick Henry just ran for 400 1125 00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:58,320 yards against the Packers the last time everyone watched. 1126 00:52:58,320 --> 00:53:00,400 Packer, you can run all over the Packers. 1127 00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:02,840 This is in the cold. This is this is the rivalry in 1128 00:53:02,840 --> 00:53:06,000 the cold. It's bare bigger down weather. 1129 00:53:06,400 --> 00:53:08,800 It's at night. It's at 8:00 at night, it's me 1130 00:53:08,800 --> 00:53:11,480 freezing. The Bears want to run the ball. 1131 00:53:11,480 --> 00:53:12,480 The Packers can't. You think? 1132 00:53:12,720 --> 00:53:16,120 Nails, Caleb is going to throw in the cold, all right. 1133 00:53:16,120 --> 00:53:17,200 Fine, we'll do, Kyle. Menong Guy. 1134 00:53:17,280 --> 00:53:18,960 All right, That makes me want to say Menong guy. 1135 00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:20,800 You want to kiss me? Exactly. 1136 00:53:21,240 --> 00:53:23,760 What I You got to go, Menong Guy for the touchdown. 1137 00:53:24,320 --> 00:53:27,040 You guys are telling me. Just calm down a little bit. 1138 00:53:27,520 --> 00:53:29,040 I don't want swift pants in the ass. 1139 00:53:29,040 --> 00:53:32,320 Give me Menong Guy. Yeah, that's why Menong Guy has 1140 00:53:32,320 --> 00:53:37,840 some ownership. 4% by the way, Davis, this is this is a one 1141 00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:39,720 time. I don't think it counts as an 1142 00:53:39,720 --> 00:53:42,520 apology. It's just a one time offer. 1143 00:53:42,680 --> 00:53:44,800 I think Kayla Williams, phenomenal play in the 1144 00:53:44,800 --> 00:53:46,160 tournament. Phenomenal. 1145 00:53:46,160 --> 00:53:49,080 He's a great play. First off, he's a great play. 1146 00:53:49,080 --> 00:53:51,360 Second off, I thought you were ready to say he's the best 1147 00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:55,320 quarterback in this game. No, I don't say that. 1148 00:53:55,840 --> 00:53:57,960 We're so guys. Oh, we're so fucking. 1149 00:53:57,960 --> 00:54:00,240 Close. I just got Mononga to 5% based 1150 00:54:00,240 --> 00:54:03,000 on how excited Ben was. I have, I have, I have Beth. 1151 00:54:03,000 --> 00:54:04,960 The bears in this game though, I think they should be favored. 1152 00:54:04,960 --> 00:54:05,960 I think it's weird that they're not. 1153 00:54:06,520 --> 00:54:08,840 Frog Clone says that counts as an apology. 1154 00:54:10,120 --> 00:54:12,040 Thanks Frog clone. I I tend to agree. 1155 00:54:13,840 --> 00:54:16,920 Yeah, I think, I think Loveland. I don't want to go Loveland's 1156 00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:19,360 when I'm trying not to. Like I want to be. 1157 00:54:19,680 --> 00:54:21,800 I'm OK being wrong. I don't want to be really wrong 1158 00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:23,720 in One Direction or the other because I think he's a good 1159 00:54:23,720 --> 00:54:27,720 play, yeah, but I don't want to like have him basically show up 1160 00:54:27,720 --> 00:54:29,800 as a really good play cuz no one's playing him right? 1161 00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:32,560 And then everyone plays him. But I also don't want to over 1162 00:54:32,560 --> 00:54:35,080 project the ownership and us not play him because I would like to 1163 00:54:35,080 --> 00:54:37,040 play him. So I've kind of gotten it back 1164 00:54:37,040 --> 00:54:39,880 up a little bit from where it was a few minutes ago. 1165 00:54:40,120 --> 00:54:43,320 Up to 32% right now. Yeah, he's the one. 1166 00:54:43,480 --> 00:54:46,600 If someone could just tell me the ownership right now, if I 1167 00:54:46,600 --> 00:54:48,760 could just no one ownership, it would be Colson Lovelands. 1168 00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:50,000 I think it would be the one I most. 1169 00:54:50,000 --> 00:54:52,520 Want to know? I was doing, yeah, I think he is 1170 00:54:52,520 --> 00:54:54,800 going to come in high. I was doing the math in my head 1171 00:54:55,680 --> 00:54:57,600 on the Caleb Williams is a great play call. 1172 00:54:57,600 --> 00:54:59,560 I mean, being at 1%, he's probably still a good call. 1173 00:54:59,560 --> 00:55:02,440 But I guess I understand why people are and and the Bears 1174 00:55:02,440 --> 00:55:05,720 numbers are really low. And it's because assuming they 1175 00:55:05,720 --> 00:55:08,640 win against the Packers, which is like basically a toss up by 1176 00:55:08,640 --> 00:55:10,480 the lines. Yeah, they have to host the 1177 00:55:10,480 --> 00:55:14,720 Eagles or the only other outcome is the Niners beat the Eagles 1178 00:55:15,440 --> 00:55:21,760 and then the Niners go to go to Seattle and then they have to 1179 00:55:21,760 --> 00:55:23,720 take take the ramps. They're very likely to play 1180 00:55:23,760 --> 00:55:25,960 either the Eagles or the Rams in the second round. 1181 00:55:26,120 --> 00:55:28,960 They do get a home game, but their path is actually tougher 1182 00:55:28,960 --> 00:55:31,120 than I was realizing. Those are the two teams that 1183 00:55:31,760 --> 00:55:33,800 would make me think that the Bears are not going to play 1184 00:55:33,800 --> 00:55:35,400 three games. I think you need at least three 1185 00:55:35,400 --> 00:55:37,240 games with probably need three with Caleb. 1186 00:55:37,240 --> 00:55:39,880 Yeah, yeah, probably need 3, especially because there's so 1187 00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:44,440 many good AFC quarterbacks without, like we talked about 1188 00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:46,880 Knicks, but May Allen? No, but I mean, I would include 1189 00:55:46,880 --> 00:55:49,200 Knicks in the argument against Caleb, like you. 1190 00:55:49,280 --> 00:55:52,080 Yeah, you're fading potentially Super Bowl Knicks. 1191 00:55:52,120 --> 00:55:53,800 And if you're not, if it's not Super Bowl Knicks, it might be 1192 00:55:53,800 --> 00:55:55,960 Super Bowl Lawrence or Super Bowl Allen or Super Bowl May. 1193 00:55:56,960 --> 00:55:58,960 That's a problem. It's gonna be really hard for an 1194 00:55:58,960 --> 00:56:00,640 NFC quarterback to get there in two games. 1195 00:56:01,760 --> 00:56:03,520 Really hard. All right, let's go to the other 1196 00:56:03,520 --> 00:56:06,160 two seed here, the New England Patriots. 1197 00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:10,680 I brought May's ownership down since the first run of this. 1198 00:56:10,680 --> 00:56:12,200 I still have them as the highest quarterback. 1199 00:56:12,240 --> 00:56:15,200 I feel, I feel like right away, I feel like you got to almost 1200 00:56:15,200 --> 00:56:19,760 swap Trevion and Stevenson. You know, this is one of those 1201 00:56:19,760 --> 00:56:24,400 spots where projection, like you asked about early on, you're 1202 00:56:24,400 --> 00:56:28,800 like, you know, does the potential field shifting, like 1203 00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:31,320 change the way I'm doing this? This is a spot where I'm trying 1204 00:56:31,320 --> 00:56:34,960 to hold on to the fact that like, Henderson is clearly the 1205 00:56:34,960 --> 00:56:39,480 better play, and we'll be projected better than than 1206 00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:44,520 Stevenson, but all I've heard today is romandre, romandre, 1207 00:56:44,520 --> 00:56:48,000 romandre E. TRETR right now for For whatever 1208 00:56:48,000 --> 00:56:53,320 it's worth, ETR has Trevion 12.5 points this weekend, Stevenson 1209 00:56:53,960 --> 00:56:58,960 10.5 if Henderson gets more carries or if Stevenson gets 1210 00:56:58,960 --> 00:57:01,280 more carries than Hendo this upcoming game against the 1211 00:57:01,280 --> 00:57:03,360 Chargers. What's the projection next week? 1212 00:57:04,640 --> 00:57:07,240 Well, the the only thing that I would if wait, why would 1213 00:57:07,240 --> 00:57:08,840 Stephenson get more carries in Henderson? 1214 00:57:10,400 --> 00:57:12,800 He started the last two games. Did he? 1215 00:57:12,800 --> 00:57:14,120 When's the last time he did that? 1216 00:57:14,120 --> 00:57:16,880 Because Stephenson hasn't had double digit carries since week 1217 00:57:16,880 --> 00:57:19,080 13. No, we're just making meet up 1218 00:57:19,160 --> 00:57:21,400 with Madre Stephenson. We just pretend like what he's 1219 00:57:21,400 --> 00:57:23,000 doing is different than what he's actually doing. 1220 00:57:23,080 --> 00:57:25,840 No, Stephenson starts the way David Montgomery used to start. 1221 00:57:25,840 --> 00:57:28,120 Like he starts, but like Henderson gets more carries 1222 00:57:28,160 --> 00:57:31,400 every single time. But but I will say sentiment 1223 00:57:31,400 --> 00:57:34,720 wise, like Grant, you mentioned you're in like $100 draft with 1224 00:57:34,720 --> 00:57:37,000 buddies or whatever. I'm in two similar things where 1225 00:57:37,000 --> 00:57:39,400 you're just drafting the players in a snake like fashion. 1226 00:57:39,760 --> 00:57:42,640 These guys, we're talking boomers, we're talking boomer 1227 00:57:42,640 --> 00:57:48,240 octo and both of them from Andre went before Fabian Anderson And, 1228 00:57:48,360 --> 00:57:50,440 and, and we don't know where Henderson would have fallen to 1229 00:57:50,440 --> 00:57:53,240 because he's on my team. So I'm not sure how long it 1230 00:57:53,240 --> 00:57:55,640 would have lasted. I mean, he had a huge week 18, 1231 00:57:55,680 --> 00:58:01,080 but like I'm looking at it, he had 7886 carries the last four 1232 00:58:01,080 --> 00:58:03,520 games working back and that includes a game where Trayvon 1233 00:58:03,520 --> 00:58:06,120 left with a concussion. You got to go back before 1234 00:58:06,120 --> 00:58:09,320 they're by. We got the week 14 by and 1235 00:58:09,320 --> 00:58:12,840 Brookie post by bump for Henderson for for a game where 1236 00:58:12,840 --> 00:58:14,280 Stevenson had more than 10 carries. 1237 00:58:14,280 --> 00:58:17,920 He does catch some passes. Typically Henderson, this is his 1238 00:58:17,920 --> 00:58:22,280 carries working backward 1319 five in a game where he was 1239 00:58:22,280 --> 00:58:27,160 concussed 1411 that were before the by 18191414. 1240 00:58:27,320 --> 00:58:29,480 Obviously Stevenson missed some of that, he said Double digit 1241 00:58:29,480 --> 00:58:32,400 every single game. Every single game for like 8 1242 00:58:32,400 --> 00:58:35,880 straight games for the choir. Ben, I'm sorry, I'm just the 1243 00:58:35,960 --> 00:58:38,400 conversation around this too has been driving me nuts. 1244 00:58:38,840 --> 00:58:39,800 But this is the. This is the. 1245 00:58:39,800 --> 00:58:42,000 Choir here, but I don't know if you're preaching to the Sizzler. 1246 00:58:42,200 --> 00:58:44,080 I don't know if you're preaching to the if Hampton is out, it 1247 00:58:44,080 --> 00:58:46,120 would make sense for the past just to feed Stevenson over 1248 00:58:46,120 --> 00:58:49,960 Henderson. I, I don't know what I but that 1249 00:58:49,960 --> 00:58:52,080 is sentiment. Like I think Jason's comments 1250 00:58:52,080 --> 00:58:53,920 there is like I'm hearing stuff that's. 1251 00:58:54,400 --> 00:58:56,800 But that's all I, that's all I was saying, All I was. 1252 00:58:56,880 --> 00:59:00,320 Saying is sentiment for Stevenson pass blocking chops, 1253 00:59:00,880 --> 00:59:05,480 goal line roll. But like I, I don't know why 1254 00:59:05,480 --> 00:59:07,840 Hampton being out would would affect their running back usage 1255 00:59:07,840 --> 00:59:10,320 at all personally. But like I'm hearing a lot of 1256 00:59:10,320 --> 00:59:12,600 things that are all like, listen, I think Ramadres going 1257 00:59:12,600 --> 00:59:13,880 to get the work and not Henderson. 1258 00:59:13,880 --> 00:59:17,680 So what I'm trying to figure out what the field's going to do. 1259 00:59:17,680 --> 00:59:20,960 I've brought Stevenson up a lot. I mean, I think it should be 1260 00:59:20,960 --> 00:59:26,400 like it's 29% Henderson, you know, and Stevenson should be 1261 00:59:26,400 --> 00:59:30,040 down below 10 or something. Like I Henderson to me is like 1262 00:59:30,400 --> 00:59:32,640 you want to talk about who could get there in a loss? 1263 00:59:33,040 --> 00:59:35,120 Henderson can get there in a loss because he has the, the, 1264 00:59:35,360 --> 00:59:38,320 the game breaking ability. Henderson also has the ability 1265 00:59:38,320 --> 00:59:43,120 to completely run away even from May with the you know, he can 1266 00:59:43,120 --> 00:59:45,360 hit 80 yard touchdowns. Like it's nuts. 1267 00:59:45,360 --> 00:59:49,680 Like, so I, I think like a guy who, who just laps his teammates 1268 00:59:50,080 --> 00:59:54,240 outside of May Henderson is like, clearly it took me a lot 1269 00:59:54,240 --> 00:59:57,200 to have Henderson below digs because I think that's wrong. 1270 00:59:57,720 --> 01:00:02,680 But I also think it's played like that after some, some 1271 01:00:02,680 --> 01:00:04,440 reason. This is why May has to go up 1272 01:00:04,480 --> 01:00:06,440 though, right? Like who, who's are people going 1273 01:00:06,440 --> 01:00:08,920 to play these other guys? I, I, I think, I think there's 1274 01:00:08,920 --> 01:00:10,680 only one quarterback. There's a lot of quarterbacks 1275 01:00:10,680 --> 01:00:11,840 we're going to. Say should be played. 1276 01:00:12,400 --> 01:00:15,080 The other guy, I think that's, well, I think Alan got in the 1277 01:00:15,080 --> 01:00:17,560 sense, I think Henderson is low in the sense that I wanna play 1278 01:00:17,560 --> 01:00:19,400 him at this ownership. I don't think he's too low in 1279 01:00:19,400 --> 01:00:20,680 the sense that I think you're wrong, though. 1280 01:00:21,080 --> 01:00:24,120 The one guy I think that is actually too low for ownership 1281 01:00:24,120 --> 01:00:26,240 is Hunter Henry. I think because we talked about 1282 01:00:26,240 --> 01:00:28,880 the pressure on tight end, if people decide they're not 1283 01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:31,160 playing may in their lineup for whatever reason, because they're 1284 01:00:31,160 --> 01:00:33,600 going to make the quarterback decision first, I think more 1285 01:00:33,600 --> 01:00:35,320 often than not. And if they've already decided 1286 01:00:35,320 --> 01:00:38,440 on Allen or Nicks or Hertz or whoever else, and they don't 1287 01:00:38,440 --> 01:00:40,960 want to pick between the running backs, is digs really that 1288 01:00:40,960 --> 01:00:42,840 enticing? I could just see someone being 1289 01:00:42,840 --> 01:00:44,920 like, look, I'm going to solve tight end and and maybe I'll get 1290 01:00:44,920 --> 01:00:48,080 two or three games out of Henry. I I could see him creeping. 1291 01:00:48,440 --> 01:00:51,440 I, I agree with this. What what you're saying and what 1292 01:00:51,440 --> 01:00:55,840 and Shorty says here the the combined running backs being 30 1293 01:00:55,840 --> 01:00:58,280 and the combined of digs and Henry being 30. 1294 01:00:59,080 --> 01:01:02,200 God Henry has just been so like meh. 1295 01:01:02,560 --> 01:01:05,800 Like doesn't, don't. Again, you need a tight end. 1296 01:01:05,800 --> 01:01:08,120 It's really tight end. You need a tight end. 1297 01:01:08,640 --> 01:01:09,920 Yeah. Yeah. 1298 01:01:09,920 --> 01:01:12,080 So there's a lot of, there's a lot of Schultz love out there 1299 01:01:12,080 --> 01:01:13,240 and there's a lot of Goddard love. 1300 01:01:13,240 --> 01:01:15,320 We'll we'll get to that. That's that's where I have some 1301 01:01:15,320 --> 01:01:17,120 tight end. I don't think Henry's honestly 1302 01:01:17,120 --> 01:01:19,760 that great of a play. Even at 13% he's not. 1303 01:01:19,800 --> 01:01:24,920 It's not like he projects great. So I'm trying not to. 1304 01:01:25,880 --> 01:01:28,120 He's only a good play from the perspective that you don't 1305 01:01:28,120 --> 01:01:29,640 really know which running back to play. 1306 01:01:29,840 --> 01:01:32,520 You don't really feel good about Diggs, whose routes have been up 1307 01:01:32,520 --> 01:01:36,400 and down all over the place and like all the other stuff he's 1308 01:01:36,400 --> 01:01:38,440 got going on. I mean, I don't think that's 1309 01:01:38,440 --> 01:01:41,160 actually going to impact his game because it's like 2 weeks 1310 01:01:41,160 --> 01:01:43,200 old, but really more the route stuff. 1311 01:01:43,200 --> 01:01:44,600 But maybe his routes will really spike. 1312 01:01:44,600 --> 01:01:46,720 I don't know. Diggs is maybe a decent click, I 1313 01:01:46,720 --> 01:01:50,360 don't know, but Henry like is AI think I think Goddard's gonna 1314 01:01:50,360 --> 01:01:53,160 catch a good amount of ownership and and Schultz will catch some 1315 01:01:53,160 --> 01:01:54,680 too. And then you have Loveland, 1316 01:01:54,680 --> 01:01:56,840 which we who we just raised by the but isn't it? 1317 01:01:57,240 --> 01:02:03,040 Isn't it harder to click Goddard over Brown Barkley Smith than it 1318 01:02:03,040 --> 01:02:04,720 is to click Henry over Diggs Henderson? 1319 01:02:04,720 --> 01:02:07,320 That's what I was gonna say. I was taking my times and sworn 1320 01:02:07,320 --> 01:02:11,000 2 touchdowns. That's true, but Henry Henry is 1321 01:02:11,000 --> 01:02:14,320 a lot like Loveland where you you don't have to fade a shock 1322 01:02:14,320 --> 01:02:15,600 piece. You don't have to fade a 1323 01:02:15,600 --> 01:02:18,960 superstar other than May, but to your point, there's only one 1324 01:02:18,960 --> 01:02:21,200 quarterback. I would be I would I would take 1325 01:02:21,200 --> 01:02:23,960 use to not play guys that people already don't really want to 1326 01:02:23,960 --> 01:02:26,080 play. I would bet money that Henry's 1327 01:02:26,080 --> 01:02:28,200 not higher owned than Goddard. What do you guys say? 1328 01:02:28,640 --> 01:02:32,200 I'd I'd book you for that. OK, interesting. 1329 01:02:34,080 --> 01:02:36,520 Because I I just think people will look at these Patriots 1330 01:02:36,560 --> 01:02:38,080 other than May. A lot of people will play May, 1331 01:02:38,360 --> 01:02:40,440 But if you're not playing May, I think people will look at these 1332 01:02:40,440 --> 01:02:42,280 Patriots and look for reasons not to play them. 1333 01:02:42,280 --> 01:02:44,400 But no one's looking for a reason to not play Barkley or 1334 01:02:44,400 --> 01:02:46,240 Brant. You're you're like, you're like 1335 01:02:46,240 --> 01:02:48,040 annoyed that you can't play either of them and that you have 1336 01:02:48,040 --> 01:02:51,600 to play Goddard. But Goddard sentiment on the on 1337 01:02:51,600 --> 01:02:53,760 the Patriots outside the ship chasing universe is pretty 1338 01:02:53,760 --> 01:02:57,320 heavy. Romandre I would say yeah. 1339 01:02:58,240 --> 01:03:01,480 And then this goes pretty high in these playoff tournaments. 1340 01:03:01,480 --> 01:03:05,160 I think people digs is a a fairly comfy way to go. 1341 01:03:05,160 --> 01:03:08,040 I mean, he's not super comfy, but it's it's like it's not like 1342 01:03:08,040 --> 01:03:09,480 I can't figure out which wide receiver to play. 1343 01:03:09,480 --> 01:03:10,960 It's digs. Everyone's playing digs of the 1344 01:03:11,040 --> 01:03:14,160 Yeah, No, I like the digs, the ownership where it is my my only 1345 01:03:15,400 --> 01:03:17,520 in a vacuum. My only difference is Henry 1346 01:03:17,520 --> 01:03:19,600 higher, Ramondre lower. But if you're, you're out there 1347 01:03:19,600 --> 01:03:21,320 at the Sizzler listening to Ramondre people. 1348 01:03:21,360 --> 01:03:23,520 I will. I will the Ramondre stuff's 1349 01:03:23,520 --> 01:03:25,600 real. I I think it's real and also 1350 01:03:25,600 --> 01:03:28,400 like Ramondre is someone I'm I'm happy to get in playoff 1351 01:03:28,400 --> 01:03:31,560 basketball contest as well. Love them though. 1352 01:03:31,560 --> 01:03:34,880 Don't get Henry to play later. The red Q tag could could 1353 01:03:34,880 --> 01:03:37,440 matter, but keep an eye on that. I mean, obviously the Hampton 1354 01:03:37,440 --> 01:03:39,880 stuff we'll get to are that are that voids because of the Q tag. 1355 01:03:40,520 --> 01:03:42,920 Fun fact, I feel safe. Maybe, maybe Henry comes up a 1356 01:03:42,920 --> 01:03:45,440 bit. There's a lot of a lot of Henry 1357 01:03:45,440 --> 01:03:47,560 bullishness in the chat. I'll move him up a little bit 1358 01:03:47,560 --> 01:03:51,280 more. But fun fact, Hunter Henry, 1359 01:03:51,280 --> 01:03:54,240 obviously touchdowns matter too and Goddard scored 11 and Henry 1360 01:03:54,240 --> 01:03:57,440 scored 7. Hunter Henry had five more yards 1361 01:03:57,440 --> 01:04:01,280 per game, six more yards per game than Dallas Goddard this 1362 01:04:01,280 --> 01:04:04,200 year. But like, to me, I don't know 1363 01:04:04,200 --> 01:04:07,600 it, it gets to a point where like if, if Henderson is played 1364 01:04:07,600 --> 01:04:11,080 at the same rate as Henry, that's like a like feels like 1365 01:04:11,080 --> 01:04:12,760 generational opportunity on Henderson. 1366 01:04:12,760 --> 01:04:15,760 Like I don't like to have ownership to the point where I'm 1367 01:04:15,760 --> 01:04:18,960 like, and now it's time to jam Henderson. 1368 01:04:18,960 --> 01:04:21,680 Henderson. Henderson's the Bucky from last 1369 01:04:21,720 --> 01:04:23,280 year. Dude, we're the only ones who 1370 01:04:23,280 --> 01:04:25,800 like Henderson. People got so fucking mad at me 1371 01:04:25,800 --> 01:04:27,960 when I tried to say that Henderson was a decent pick this 1372 01:04:27,960 --> 01:04:30,920 year a couple weeks ago. Like I think JJ had a pole, 1373 01:04:30,920 --> 01:04:32,240 whether he was a good neutral or bad. 1374 01:04:32,240 --> 01:04:34,960 And then I started talking about it and I got so much. 1375 01:04:35,120 --> 01:04:37,640 I I don't never. I don't think there's a thing 1376 01:04:37,640 --> 01:04:40,520 that I got more opinions back from that. 1377 01:04:40,520 --> 01:04:44,000 I was like, what are you people talking about than that all 1378 01:04:44,000 --> 01:04:46,160 year? The people are just really out 1379 01:04:46,160 --> 01:04:48,400 on Henderson. Henderson's going to be 10% on 1380 01:04:48,400 --> 01:04:51,080 see, I'm I'm not going to project like that because he 1381 01:04:51,080 --> 01:04:54,120 that would make him the best play in the entire tournament. 1382 01:04:54,800 --> 01:04:58,960 And I don't I don't like that's disrespectful to the field. 1383 01:04:59,120 --> 01:05:03,680 If you have it at if I were to put a 10%, that would basically 1384 01:05:03,680 --> 01:05:05,440 be telling the field, I don't want the word what they're 1385 01:05:05,440 --> 01:05:06,680 doing. I've kind of feel like that at 1386 01:05:06,680 --> 01:05:09,160 16, Like I kind of feel like I need to raise it from 16. 1387 01:05:09,160 --> 01:05:11,480 This feels this feels bad. This was wrong. 1388 01:05:11,480 --> 01:05:14,600 I I do think that Mac Nova has a point here, like saying it's 1389 01:05:14,600 --> 01:05:16,680 crazy that the guy scoring more fantasy points recently goes 1390 01:05:16,680 --> 01:05:18,720 higher as peak sloppy. Like Stevenson has been scoring 1391 01:05:18,720 --> 01:05:20,720 touchdowns lately. And I was talking about Russia 1392 01:05:20,720 --> 01:05:22,160 10. He catches some passes. 1393 01:05:22,160 --> 01:05:24,320 He's been scoring a bunch of touchdowns and people think that 1394 01:05:24,320 --> 01:05:25,760 he's going to score touchdowns in the playoffs. 1395 01:05:25,760 --> 01:05:29,160 So but there's a market right? There is a market right now in 1396 01:05:29,480 --> 01:05:32,080 on DraftKings and on Underdog where people are drafting these 1397 01:05:32,200 --> 01:05:33,840 players and the drafting in the high volume. 1398 01:05:33,840 --> 01:05:37,040 And Henderson goes ahead of Romandre in every single lot and 1399 01:05:37,040 --> 01:05:39,960 he goes ahead of he goes ahead of Stefan digs in every single 1400 01:05:39,960 --> 01:05:40,960 draft. And he goes ahead of Hunter 1401 01:05:40,960 --> 01:05:43,000 Henry on on DraftKings where you need a tight end and they're 1402 01:05:43,000 --> 01:05:45,080 actually fairly scarce in every single draft. 1403 01:05:45,080 --> 01:05:49,760 So I don't, I don't know, at some point, like people aren't 1404 01:05:49,920 --> 01:05:52,920 out on Henderson because I watched them draft them all the 1405 01:05:52,920 --> 01:05:54,400 time. So that's a great point. 1406 01:05:54,560 --> 01:05:55,960 That's a great point. Yeah, yeah, that's a great 1407 01:05:55,960 --> 01:05:57,200 point. All right, let's move to the 1408 01:05:57,200 --> 01:05:58,680 three seeds because we're at one O 5. 1409 01:05:58,880 --> 01:06:05,120 We've got through 414 teams. We gotta we gotta get a progress 1410 01:06:05,160 --> 01:06:07,120 meter up. We are progress meter. 1411 01:06:07,320 --> 01:06:09,040 Progress meter is a great idea all. 1412 01:06:09,640 --> 01:06:13,440 Right, let's go to Jacksonville. This is interesting because they 1413 01:06:13,440 --> 01:06:17,040 have so many dudes who score points like P wash at 5%. 1414 01:06:17,040 --> 01:06:19,720 To me, that feels I'm really. Glad you raised Parker 1415 01:06:19,720 --> 01:06:22,640 Washington because that that I remember I saw your first run 1416 01:06:22,640 --> 01:06:25,600 and I was like, that's too low because that that dude is red 1417 01:06:25,600 --> 01:06:27,800 hot. Yeah, people love people love. 1418 01:06:28,000 --> 01:06:30,440 I want I want P wash over. Jacoby. 1419 01:06:32,600 --> 01:06:34,680 I love, I love P wash. I'm with them. 1420 01:06:34,680 --> 01:06:36,000 I'm with the boomers on this one. 1421 01:06:36,040 --> 01:06:38,720 I'm all in on P wash. I I had them as my favorite 1422 01:06:38,720 --> 01:06:40,880 player on the Jack. You think P wash over Jacoby? 1423 01:06:41,840 --> 01:06:43,640 No. Not not in terms of ownership, 1424 01:06:43,640 --> 01:06:47,280 in terms of my favorite click. OK, when Pewash, Jacoby and 1425 01:06:47,280 --> 01:06:49,440 Thomas have all been healthy, Pewash is leaving them see that 1426 01:06:50,040 --> 01:06:52,760 this is Evergreen. Every quarterback thumbs up. 1427 01:06:52,760 --> 01:06:54,520 Everyone says raise the quarterback, guys. 1428 01:06:54,520 --> 01:06:57,400 There's one quarterback, There's one quarterback, OK? 1429 01:06:57,480 --> 01:06:59,160 I'm not, I'm not saying raise Lawrence. 1430 01:06:59,600 --> 01:07:02,880 I do think Nicks. I was pushing Nicks and May and 1431 01:07:02,880 --> 01:07:04,040 I do think they should both go up on them. 1432 01:07:04,040 --> 01:07:05,680 The guy that I think should come down is when we get to the 1433 01:07:05,680 --> 01:07:07,720 bills, I'm going to tell you that I think Alan's too high. 1434 01:07:08,120 --> 01:07:09,240 I'm guessing I don't know where he's at. 1435 01:07:09,320 --> 01:07:10,800 High for ownership or high for play? 1436 01:07:11,120 --> 01:07:13,560 For ownership. I don't think he's gonna come in 1437 01:07:13,600 --> 01:07:16,120 as high as we think 'cause the last few years he's coming. 1438 01:07:16,400 --> 01:07:17,640 Well, we'll get there. We want to talk. 1439 01:07:17,720 --> 01:07:20,240 About there, this is good. This is good information and I 1440 01:07:20,240 --> 01:07:22,880 should have mentioned this but right now in the underdog draft 1441 01:07:22,880 --> 01:07:26,920 games, which is big fucking nerds, Parker Washington is 1442 01:07:26,920 --> 01:07:31,760 going ahead of Jacoby right now in in the draft games for for 1443 01:07:32,000 --> 01:07:34,480 wild card weekend for this game against the Bills. 1444 01:07:35,520 --> 01:07:38,320 Best match up against the Bills too, like outsiders. 1445 01:07:38,440 --> 01:07:39,760 He's going to get a lot of the slot work. 1446 01:07:39,760 --> 01:07:42,200 It's going to be short over the immediate that is. 1447 01:07:42,280 --> 01:07:44,280 That is good information. Ownership is pretty. 1448 01:07:44,600 --> 01:07:46,120 I think this ownership is mostly good though. 1449 01:07:46,160 --> 01:07:49,120 Like I I like that Lawrence, I think ETN is going to be between 1450 01:07:49,120 --> 01:07:51,680 40 and 50. I think it's going to be pretty 1451 01:07:51,680 --> 01:07:54,800 spread between Strange, Myers, Washington all like in the mid 1452 01:07:54,800 --> 01:07:56,520 to high single digits. Yeah, this seems good. 1453 01:07:56,680 --> 01:07:59,800 I'll bring Washington up a little like this, Myers. 1454 01:07:59,800 --> 01:08:04,920 Down a little. Yeah, I just checked ETR and on 1455 01:08:04,920 --> 01:08:07,760 ETR for this week, they're projected like completely neck 1456 01:08:07,760 --> 01:08:08,960 and neck, Myers. The same. 1457 01:08:10,000 --> 01:08:13,040 I love the NFL now. It's so fucking wide open, dude. 1458 01:08:13,160 --> 01:08:15,360 Fuck it Parker. Washington's the best play I 1459 01:08:15,360 --> 01:08:17,560 got. I got one other I got one other 1460 01:08:17,560 --> 01:08:21,399 note here, but shouldn't Cam little maybe get a smidgen of a 1461 01:08:21,399 --> 01:08:22,760 butt? And I don't know how Andy is 1462 01:08:22,760 --> 01:08:24,840 relative to all the other kickers because he's a meme 1463 01:08:24,920 --> 01:08:27,080 pretty high. Like any anytime, anytime. 1464 01:08:27,160 --> 01:08:29,760 I haven't pretty high one. Of the notes, was the same high 1465 01:08:29,840 --> 01:08:32,479 too high? Definitely pretty high. 1466 01:08:32,960 --> 01:08:36,279 So I I think, but but Davis to your point came a little, it 1467 01:08:36,279 --> 01:08:39,080 will be played and people are excited to play them and I think 1468 01:08:39,520 --> 01:08:41,520 1. So this was an interesting 1469 01:08:41,600 --> 01:08:44,240 thing. I did hear from other people 1470 01:08:44,240 --> 01:08:47,720 playing the contest saying, hey, if you're playing a quarterback, 1471 01:08:47,720 --> 01:08:50,520 don't even play a guy in the opposite team, which I agree 1472 01:08:50,520 --> 01:08:54,760 with generally. And that that was an interesting 1473 01:08:54,760 --> 01:08:57,359 thing of like, OK, yeah, maybe Cam Little's ownership actually 1474 01:08:57,359 --> 01:09:00,279 it comes down a bit because Alan will be played like he won't be 1475 01:09:00,319 --> 01:09:04,960 maybe massive chalk, but hard fade will be more popular on 1476 01:09:04,960 --> 01:09:07,880 those teams. So, you know, I don't have I 1477 01:09:07,880 --> 01:09:10,160 actually probably have hard fate actually too low for that 1478 01:09:10,160 --> 01:09:11,920 reason. I'm going to make a note on that 1479 01:09:11,920 --> 01:09:13,880 real quick. Shorty keeps saying like he says 1480 01:09:14,120 --> 01:09:18,680 we're too low on ETN and TLO. Probably he keeps saying that if 1481 01:09:18,680 --> 01:09:20,840 anything, I think you're too high on TLOB potentially. 1482 01:09:20,880 --> 01:09:24,960 I mean, every quarterback feels too low for to everyone. 1483 01:09:25,319 --> 01:09:27,560 So we I think Pat, I think he's too high. 1484 01:09:27,560 --> 01:09:29,600 I think Lawrence is too high. I said too high. 1485 01:09:30,080 --> 01:09:34,000 We used to do the matchups if you go so we used to do like 1486 01:09:34,000 --> 01:09:35,399 Buffalo and Jacksonville at the same time. 1487 01:09:35,399 --> 01:09:37,560 I I do just want to talk about Alan while we have T law. 1488 01:09:37,600 --> 01:09:39,120 How what percentage do you have Alan? 1489 01:09:39,120 --> 01:09:41,800 Because what is their combined percentage is my question 1490 01:09:43,080 --> 01:09:45,760 because people are probably I don't know if people are going 1491 01:09:47,920 --> 01:09:52,800 to Alan. I have at 27 and so T law is 1492 01:09:52,840 --> 01:09:55,400 what, the third highest projected QB or 4th? 1493 01:09:55,400 --> 01:09:58,200 Yeah, third. 3rd 10% is a high number. 1494 01:09:58,200 --> 01:10:00,840 I don't think people realize how I think Lawrence comes in 5th. 1495 01:10:01,080 --> 01:10:04,200 I I think, I think he comes in below obviously May and Allen, 1496 01:10:04,200 --> 01:10:06,120 but I think, I think he comes in below Nix and Hertz. 1497 01:10:06,240 --> 01:10:08,200 If people are playing Allen, I don't think he comes in below 1498 01:10:08,200 --> 01:10:09,520 Nix, but he might be even with Nix. 1499 01:10:09,520 --> 01:10:11,400 I'll I'll get him even with Nix 'cause I wanted to raise Nix 1500 01:10:11,400 --> 01:10:14,920 anyway. Eight and eight, eight and eight 1501 01:10:14,920 --> 01:10:18,440 seems pretty fair for Lawrence. Yeah, 8 and 8 is how I'll do 1502 01:10:18,440 --> 01:10:21,080 that. I think Lawrence is a better 1503 01:10:21,080 --> 01:10:23,000 play than Knicks at the same ownership. 1504 01:10:23,360 --> 01:10:25,160 Personally. I think Lawrence is. 1505 01:10:25,320 --> 01:10:26,600 You think who's better than Lawrence? 1506 01:10:27,800 --> 01:10:29,520 I think Lawrence is a better play than Knicks at the same 1507 01:10:29,520 --> 01:10:31,240 ownership. I think Lawrence is a very good 1508 01:10:31,240 --> 01:10:33,560 play too, for sure. He's definitely a strong player. 1509 01:10:33,560 --> 01:10:36,720 I don't think the field is going to feel comfortable playing. 1510 01:10:37,400 --> 01:10:39,880 I I mean, Jackson was a very fun team, very popular. 1511 01:10:40,000 --> 01:10:42,760 Me and Sean are very bullish on him when we did our playoff show 1512 01:10:42,760 --> 01:10:47,520 a couple weeks ago. I don't think people are going 1513 01:10:47,520 --> 01:10:49,400 to be comfortable playing against the bills. 1514 01:10:49,400 --> 01:10:52,280 The quarterback against the bills in in in round one like 1515 01:10:52,400 --> 01:10:55,560 and and ETN is a a chalk play. You can still play Jacksonville 1516 01:10:55,560 --> 01:10:58,480 to win through ETN. You don't have to play Lawrence 1517 01:10:58,480 --> 01:11:02,680 by any means. I think it's psychology of of 1518 01:11:02,680 --> 01:11:06,040 people betting their whole term because if you if you draft your 1519 01:11:06,040 --> 01:11:08,480 quarterback and they go out in round one, it's over for you 1520 01:11:08,480 --> 01:11:09,760 feel gone. Yeah right. 1521 01:11:09,800 --> 01:11:12,840 Playoff knowledge. It's turn out the lights like so 1522 01:11:12,840 --> 01:11:16,840 like I, I think people, but now I I am not that afraid of 1523 01:11:16,840 --> 01:11:19,320 Buffalo, but I think that the market has given Buffalo a lot 1524 01:11:19,320 --> 01:11:20,920 of respect. They're Rd. favorites. 1525 01:11:20,960 --> 01:11:23,040 They're getting drafted very heavily on underdog. 1526 01:11:23,240 --> 01:11:25,640 I see people all the time saying that they're the best clicks 1527 01:11:26,000 --> 01:11:28,160 even on underdog at their current prices. 1528 01:11:28,480 --> 01:11:32,160 I think people will have a hard time picking a home dog 1529 01:11:32,160 --> 01:11:35,680 quarterback against the best player in the playoffs and then 1530 01:11:35,680 --> 01:11:36,760 hitching their whole wagon to that. 1531 01:11:36,760 --> 01:11:38,720 I just think that's difficult. I'm not saying I think that's 1532 01:11:38,720 --> 01:11:39,920 bad. I I like Lawrence. 1533 01:11:39,920 --> 01:11:41,440 I'm going to play him higher than his ownership. 1534 01:11:41,440 --> 01:11:45,240 But I I think psychologically it's hard to pin your whole 1535 01:11:45,240 --> 01:11:47,760 hopes and dreams on on the Jaguars. 1536 01:11:47,760 --> 01:11:48,960 It's a good point. It's a good point. 1537 01:11:49,360 --> 01:11:51,880 Yeah, that's a good point. You have to really believe in 1538 01:11:51,880 --> 01:11:54,520 the Jags and, and maybe there aren't that many people who do. 1539 01:11:54,520 --> 01:11:58,360 So I I think lowering it makes a lot of sense. 1540 01:11:59,280 --> 01:12:02,200 Any thoughts on this? It's not just a week one win. 1541 01:12:02,200 --> 01:12:05,080 It's a week one win and then going on the road at the 1542 01:12:05,080 --> 01:12:08,160 Patriots and and probably at the patriots right and then 1543 01:12:08,160 --> 01:12:09,600 upsetting. I tell you what, though, road 1544 01:12:09,600 --> 01:12:12,440 and then on the road, the Broncos probably. 1545 01:12:13,200 --> 01:12:18,040 I think Lawrence could be optimal in two because he gets 1546 01:12:18,160 --> 01:12:22,000 because here's why he gets the the Bills and then he gets the 1547 01:12:22,000 --> 01:12:23,680 Patriots. I guess it'll be 3. 1548 01:12:24,040 --> 01:12:26,920 He could be, but he's really strong to be optimal in in three 1549 01:12:27,120 --> 01:12:28,280 because then the Patriots would work. 1550 01:12:28,280 --> 01:12:30,960 Yeah, he needs three. He needs 3 but 3 is like you're 1551 01:12:30,960 --> 01:12:35,160 feeling great because he probably was in shout outs with 1552 01:12:35,160 --> 01:12:37,560 the Bills and Patriots and he knocked out the other two guys. 1553 01:12:38,040 --> 01:12:40,680 So then if even if he loses to the Broncos and and someone gets 1554 01:12:40,680 --> 01:12:43,320 4 from from next. Let's just, let's just go do 1555 01:12:43,320 --> 01:12:44,720 that. Let's do the bills right now. 1556 01:12:44,800 --> 01:12:46,920 Laughing. I mean if if Stroud gets there 1557 01:12:46,920 --> 01:12:48,560 then you. Let's do the bills because I 1558 01:12:48,560 --> 01:12:50,840 think these conversations are linked to Todd. 1559 01:12:50,880 --> 01:12:53,560 You think the the outcome? Speaking of the bills, how many 1560 01:12:53,600 --> 01:12:55,560 entries is Liam Murphy putting in this contest? 1561 01:12:55,560 --> 01:12:58,240 Because if it's higher than 1% of the total number of entries, 1562 01:12:58,240 --> 01:13:00,440 then Jack's heart fate is I have AI have a formula. 1563 01:13:00,440 --> 01:13:04,640 Actually, this 27 percent is built by in parentheses, Liam's 1564 01:13:04,640 --> 01:13:06,400 entries multiplied by an ownership. 1565 01:13:06,400 --> 01:13:07,960 Because then you got to raise that Jack's. 1566 01:13:08,720 --> 01:13:10,960 He was entering more than 1% of the content. 1567 01:13:11,240 --> 01:13:12,920 There's a variable of his number of entries. 1568 01:13:13,160 --> 01:13:15,680 The variable of how much Allen he's playing is just locked at 1569 01:13:15,680 --> 01:13:19,200 100%, but the variable is just the adjustable. 1 is how many 1570 01:13:19,200 --> 01:13:20,720 entries. Is it? 1571 01:13:22,200 --> 01:13:26,040 I think I agree that Allen should be a little bit lower 1572 01:13:26,040 --> 01:13:31,400 'cause I think the bill's skepticism is now the prevailing 1573 01:13:31,400 --> 01:13:33,560 opinion. I, I don't think it started out. 1574 01:13:34,040 --> 01:13:38,680 I I who like other like truly like other than memes, do you 1575 01:13:38,680 --> 01:13:41,240 know anyone who like basically I'll say this. 1576 01:13:41,240 --> 01:13:44,920 No one believes that I know that the Bills are a better football 1577 01:13:44,920 --> 01:13:47,040 team than the Jags. Everyone just thinks that Josh 1578 01:13:47,040 --> 01:13:52,360 Allen is Superman. But like these, Bills have lost 1579 01:13:52,360 --> 01:13:55,880 some bad games. Pat, my question is where was, 1580 01:13:55,920 --> 01:13:58,400 where were, where did you project Josh Allen and where did 1581 01:13:58,400 --> 01:14:00,160 he come in for the last couple of years? 1582 01:14:00,160 --> 01:14:02,040 I want to know those questions. Good question. 1583 01:14:03,400 --> 01:14:10,200 So last year Josh Allen I had at 50% and he came at 49%. 1584 01:14:10,200 --> 01:14:13,720 Fucking nailed it. Let's do Josh Allen the year 1585 01:14:13,720 --> 01:14:17,120 before projects him at 33%. He came at 34%. 1586 01:14:17,120 --> 01:14:20,480 Fucking nailed it. Let's go to Josh two years ago. 1587 01:14:21,120 --> 01:14:25,960 Hang on one more report. 48% in 2022 projected came in at 49%. 1588 01:14:25,960 --> 01:14:32,480 Fucking nailed it. That was a setup. 1589 01:14:32,480 --> 01:14:33,640 We've been planning that all day. 1590 01:14:34,840 --> 01:14:37,360 Hey, Pat, I'll ask you about your Josh Allen ownership. 1591 01:14:37,680 --> 01:14:41,600 You could duck it up 1%. I was at the 1% three years in a 1592 01:14:41,600 --> 01:14:43,080 row. 1 Allen. That's amazing. 1593 01:14:43,080 --> 01:14:43,640 That was. Great. 1594 01:14:43,640 --> 01:14:45,800 Alright, this guys the Allen Whisperer, so never mind. 1595 01:14:45,800 --> 01:14:48,400 Maybe 27%. Whatever you fucking are you 1596 01:14:48,400 --> 01:14:51,480 gonna show brother? Yeah, I'm trying to. 1597 01:14:51,640 --> 01:14:53,840 So what did you, what else did you have two years ago when you 1598 01:14:53,840 --> 01:14:56,440 had him in the 30s? What and what seed was he? 1599 01:14:56,440 --> 01:14:58,440 I I want to find the bracket from Allen. 1600 01:14:59,520 --> 01:15:03,240 They were two or the three. They were 26% to make the Super 1601 01:15:03,240 --> 01:15:07,280 Bowl that year. I'm not sure what seed they 1602 01:15:07,280 --> 01:15:09,320 were. Didn't have that in the 1603 01:15:09,320 --> 01:15:12,280 spreadsheet. Last year they were 29% to make 1604 01:15:12,280 --> 01:15:18,600 the Super Bowl. This year they are so the 17%, 1605 01:15:19,480 --> 01:15:22,160 the 1-2 years ago where you had him at 33, they were the two 1606 01:15:22,160 --> 01:15:26,720 seed, but KC was the three seed. They were gonna go heads up with 1607 01:15:26,720 --> 01:15:29,520 the Chiefs in the second round and they they did it only 1608 01:15:29,520 --> 01:15:32,640 playing two games and that's why people didn't want to play them 1609 01:15:32,640 --> 01:15:33,960 for a long. But he was optimal that year, 1610 01:15:33,960 --> 01:15:34,840 right? In two games. 1611 01:15:34,840 --> 01:15:36,840 I think he was optimal in two games that year. 1612 01:15:36,840 --> 01:15:43,200 Yeah, yeah, I think he was, he was a two seed the year prior or 1613 01:15:43,200 --> 01:15:46,960 or sorry, just last year and then the the three the year 1614 01:15:46,960 --> 01:15:48,320 prior. Yeah, he's been a two seed three 1615 01:15:48,320 --> 01:15:50,960 years in a row. So this is the first time that 1616 01:15:50,960 --> 01:15:55,320 he's not playing at home. And some of those games, like 3 1617 01:15:55,320 --> 01:15:58,280 years ago, he was playing Miami at home. 1618 01:15:58,280 --> 01:15:59,480 It was expected to be a shootout. 1619 01:15:59,480 --> 01:16:04,920 They ended up winning 3431. I mean, they've like basically 1620 01:16:04,920 --> 01:16:06,560 every year. They were the three seed. 1621 01:16:06,560 --> 01:16:10,080 The year prior, they had the 47 17 win over New England, where 1622 01:16:10,080 --> 01:16:11,800 Allen scored a ton of points in the first round. 1623 01:16:12,000 --> 01:16:14,040 There's always been this belief that Allen in the first round is 1624 01:16:14,040 --> 01:16:15,840 going to score like a ton of points in a blowout win. 1625 01:16:16,040 --> 01:16:18,880 They were two seed against Pittsburgh in the first round 1626 01:16:19,320 --> 01:16:23,280 two years ago and a two seed against Denver last year. 1627 01:16:23,280 --> 01:16:27,120 Won 31 to 7 a bat like a, you know, younger Denver team, 1628 01:16:27,120 --> 01:16:29,240 rookie quarterback all of those years. 1629 01:16:29,240 --> 01:16:31,080 You're like, OK, Allen's going to get a big score in the first 1630 01:16:31,080 --> 01:16:32,760 round. They're likely to advance all of 1631 01:16:32,760 --> 01:16:35,120 these things. That's not the case this year. 1632 01:16:35,240 --> 01:16:39,200 Like there's the half the Shorty won't stop telling us that we're 1633 01:16:39,200 --> 01:16:41,560 wrong about T law. He's said it like 75 times. 1634 01:16:41,560 --> 01:16:45,400 Well, not your opinion on that logged, but like the people that 1635 01:16:45,840 --> 01:16:49,280 they let me let me make one. Let me make one point on T law 1636 01:16:49,280 --> 01:16:51,040 because I think we covered some of the reasons that we don't 1637 01:16:51,040 --> 01:16:52,520 think T law is going to be chalk. 1638 01:16:52,560 --> 01:16:54,520 We do think he's a good play. I don't think he's be super 1639 01:16:54,520 --> 01:16:59,600 chalky, but one of the other reasons is that the Buffalo run 1640 01:16:59,600 --> 01:17:02,560 defense sucks. Everyone knows it sucks and 1641 01:17:02,560 --> 01:17:05,760 Etn's super comfy that way. So you can you can play 1642 01:17:05,800 --> 01:17:09,760 Jacksonville to win through ETN and feel really comfortable with 1643 01:17:09,760 --> 01:17:11,440 that. You have to really believe that 1644 01:17:11,440 --> 01:17:12,880 Jacksonville's going to make a run. 1645 01:17:14,280 --> 01:17:18,640 I think to take Trevor Lawrence, you know, at like A at a high 1646 01:17:18,640 --> 01:17:21,080 rate. So I think 8%'s probably close 1647 01:17:21,080 --> 01:17:22,320 to right. I could be a little low, maybe 1648 01:17:22,640 --> 01:17:24,840 11 or something, but I don't know. 1649 01:17:24,840 --> 01:17:28,040 He's like, I would be shocked if he's like 17% or something. 1650 01:17:28,040 --> 01:17:31,440 My point is this sentiment that you that Telock this other 1651 01:17:31,800 --> 01:17:33,400 commenter, says Telon, mayor of the QBs. 1652 01:17:33,400 --> 01:17:34,880 You have to play. A lot of people think Telog is a 1653 01:17:34,880 --> 01:17:37,640 guy you have to play because they like Jacksonville every 1654 01:17:37,640 --> 01:17:40,560 other year. With Allen, Buffalo was not just 1655 01:17:40,560 --> 01:17:43,200 the favorite in the first round, they felt like a lock to win 1656 01:17:43,200 --> 01:17:45,240 their first game and you got multiple games and you're going 1657 01:17:45,240 --> 01:17:46,440 to get a bunch of points out of Allen. 1658 01:17:46,760 --> 01:17:48,720 This is a year where a lot of the field doesn't think 1659 01:17:48,720 --> 01:17:50,600 Buffalo's going to win in the first game because they are on 1660 01:17:50,600 --> 01:17:51,840 the road. They're in a lower seed. 1661 01:17:52,720 --> 01:17:55,400 It would surprise me, I think, and because Cook is a comfy 1662 01:17:55,400 --> 01:17:57,680 click, it would surprise me if Alan came up to 27. 1663 01:17:58,080 --> 01:18:01,800 Well, you are the I guess Scott's Scott's making a a point 1664 01:18:01,800 --> 01:18:05,920 that in a roundabout way, saying Alan is way too high and Cook is 1665 01:18:05,920 --> 01:18:10,280 too high as well. Well, then I guess who are you 1666 01:18:10,280 --> 01:18:11,640 playing on? The bills aren't Well, are you 1667 01:18:11,680 --> 01:18:13,440 not playing a bill? Are you fading the bill? 1668 01:18:13,440 --> 01:18:17,560 I mean, I think I think it makes I think that the right play is 1669 01:18:17,560 --> 01:18:22,160 to be way overweight. Buffalo fade because if if they 1670 01:18:22,160 --> 01:18:25,600 lose in round one, Allen is not making the optimal it's actually 1671 01:18:25,600 --> 01:18:29,080 a great point in one game and if and if they lose in round one, 1672 01:18:29,360 --> 01:18:32,440 then the only game if the only player you're even worried about 1673 01:18:32,440 --> 01:18:34,040 is James Cook. They really don't have anyone 1674 01:18:34,040 --> 01:18:36,680 else that's that high scoring in A1 game scenario and you're 1675 01:18:36,680 --> 01:18:39,120 talking about a running back who doesn't catch passes against an 1676 01:18:39,120 --> 01:18:41,200 elite run defense. Fuck, how are we going to sell 1677 01:18:41,200 --> 01:18:44,400 Leone on this pat every year we've been overweight bills. 1678 01:18:44,440 --> 01:18:47,280 We got to beat every overweight I have. 1679 01:18:47,560 --> 01:18:51,480 I mean my here's the biggest thing to do is the bills fans 1680 01:18:51,480 --> 01:18:55,040 are riding to the rescue. So I am I am very hard fade 1681 01:18:55,040 --> 01:18:56,640 bills. I don't think the market's going 1682 01:18:56,640 --> 01:18:58,200 to do that though. I think the market is going to 1683 01:18:58,200 --> 01:18:59,840 see that as a pick up as a pick em game. 1684 01:18:59,840 --> 01:19:01,400 They're going to see 2 elite pieces. 1685 01:19:01,440 --> 01:19:02,000 They're. Going to? 1686 01:19:02,000 --> 01:19:03,960 There's no chance. And they're going to be more 1687 01:19:03,960 --> 01:19:06,000 comfortable fading the Jags. I'm going to fade the shit out 1688 01:19:06,000 --> 01:19:08,600 of the Bills, but I don't think it's a great offense to fade in 1689 01:19:08,600 --> 01:19:11,040 A1 and done. It is such a good offense to 1690 01:19:11,040 --> 01:19:13,600 fade in A1 and done. The only thing that matters is 1691 01:19:13,600 --> 01:19:16,080 the running back who doesn't even catch that many passes. 1692 01:19:16,080 --> 01:19:19,000 He's a rushing efficiency running back and they're spread 1693 01:19:19,000 --> 01:19:23,560 out as hell In the past game. It's actually you have to play 1694 01:19:23,560 --> 01:19:25,400 the kicker. It's not a team kicker. 1695 01:19:25,560 --> 01:19:27,720 The prater situation, I currently have it at 0%. 1696 01:19:27,720 --> 01:19:29,680 So I don't think anyone just like wants to mess with like 1697 01:19:29,880 --> 01:19:32,480 when you put in to mess with a hurt kicker, you have to put in 1698 01:19:32,480 --> 01:19:34,760 the right kicker and then end up being the wrong kicker. 1699 01:19:34,760 --> 01:19:37,600 Or if they replace the kicker with the guy you know who's 1700 01:19:37,960 --> 01:19:40,480 prater comes back or whatever, like you're screwed. 1701 01:19:40,880 --> 01:19:43,080 I don't think people are going to like what do you gain? 1702 01:19:43,120 --> 01:19:44,800 So I don't think people are going to do it right now. 1703 01:19:44,800 --> 01:19:47,480 But if that changes, I'll I'll obviously adjust it. 1704 01:19:49,280 --> 01:19:52,040 You might not be wrong on Allen if you're not Everything Jacob 1705 01:19:52,040 --> 01:19:55,080 just said is very right. If these are the numbers you 1706 01:19:55,080 --> 01:19:59,600 have to play the Bills fade. It's such a it's the best play 1707 01:19:59,600 --> 01:20:01,240 in the world. Well, if it plays this obvious, 1708 01:20:01,240 --> 01:20:03,040 then it's usually not this obvious. 1709 01:20:03,040 --> 01:20:06,000 So I'll probably raise the fade a little bit and Allen will come 1710 01:20:06,000 --> 01:20:08,240 down a little bit. That means we have additional 1711 01:20:08,400 --> 01:20:09,960 quarterback ownership. Do you think some of that goes 1712 01:20:09,960 --> 01:20:11,440 to May? Did you guys feel May was a 1713 01:20:11,440 --> 01:20:13,600 little low? I felt May was going to should 1714 01:20:13,600 --> 01:20:15,720 come up and and then Knicks and then Allen. 1715 01:20:17,120 --> 01:20:19,800 And maybe maybe T law does come up a little if if people are 1716 01:20:19,880 --> 01:20:22,240 willing to fade the bills, because Bill's hard fade will be 1717 01:20:22,320 --> 01:20:25,440 will be put with Lawrence at a decent rate. 1718 01:20:27,840 --> 01:20:32,480 I mean, I don't know, maybe I'm not I'm not like necessarily 1719 01:20:32,480 --> 01:20:35,720 going to be right. I just I do think that Allen the 1720 01:20:35,720 --> 01:20:40,160 past years Allen ownership stuff, although it's to be fair, 1721 01:20:40,160 --> 01:20:41,600 we don't have a Lamar in this field. 1722 01:20:41,600 --> 01:20:43,000 We don't have a Jane Daniels this year. 1723 01:20:43,000 --> 01:20:46,120 We do still have a Hertz. Allen was the Kiwi one in 1724 01:20:46,120 --> 01:20:48,240 scoring this year in points per game. 1725 01:20:48,240 --> 01:20:51,520 I swear to God, if I'm up, if I'm up by 2% on Allen for the 1726 01:20:51,520 --> 01:20:53,080 first time, I'm going to blame you guys. 1727 01:20:55,080 --> 01:20:58,720 I mean, Allen, Allen is still a good play if they advance, but 1728 01:20:58,880 --> 01:21:02,000 this is more than 1/4 of the field playing Allen. 1729 01:21:02,280 --> 01:21:05,000 I mean, that's a lot for a team that very well could lose in the 1730 01:21:05,000 --> 01:21:06,280 first round. They are slight. 1731 01:21:06,360 --> 01:21:10,000 My, my gut instinct was that like honestly, like I was like, 1732 01:21:10,000 --> 01:21:15,120 well, James Cook 61%. That feels insane but given the 1733 01:21:15,120 --> 01:21:19,320 context of the conversation of quarterback now I'm thinking 26% 1734 01:21:19,320 --> 01:21:22,280 for Allen seems insane. Like not saying that Pad's 1735 01:21:22,280 --> 01:21:25,480 ownership is wrong, that just like man playing Allen into that 1736 01:21:25,480 --> 01:21:29,600 chalk, you do have to have a Liam level belief that he can 1737 01:21:29,600 --> 01:21:31,160 just. You do because the other thing 1738 01:21:31,160 --> 01:21:33,920 is even if they win that game, they have to go on the road to 1739 01:21:33,920 --> 01:21:35,560 Denver. They got to go play another 1740 01:21:35,560 --> 01:21:36,960 tough defense. They got to. 1741 01:21:37,000 --> 01:21:38,800 They'll be on the road the whole time, yeah. 1742 01:21:39,800 --> 01:21:42,560 I mean, Allen could play three games and not be the quarterback 1743 01:21:42,880 --> 01:21:44,960 and he could play 2 games very easily. 1744 01:21:45,440 --> 01:21:48,400 Three games? No, that is totally plausible. 1745 01:21:48,680 --> 01:21:50,480 He hasn't been passing as much this year. 1746 01:21:50,480 --> 01:21:54,080 His rushing has been great, but if you get key to ease I I get 1747 01:21:54,080 --> 01:21:57,000 the ceiling on Allen is ridiculous, but Allen is 1748 01:21:57,000 --> 01:22:01,320 actually, in my opinion, more likely to be outscored by his 1749 01:22:01,320 --> 01:22:05,760 teammate in a long run. Then May is by his, then 1750 01:22:05,760 --> 01:22:09,600 Lawrence is by his then Knicks is by his, then Caleb is by his. 1751 01:22:09,840 --> 01:22:12,080 I, I still think people are going to play a lot of Josh 1752 01:22:12,080 --> 01:22:13,880 Allen because they're just going to see him as high as scoring 1753 01:22:13,880 --> 01:22:16,960 quarterback. But I, I agree that it's bad. 1754 01:22:17,240 --> 01:22:21,880 I I think that I think that his path is thin and there's a ton 1755 01:22:21,920 --> 01:22:24,120 of risk. But yeah, maybe people will be 1756 01:22:24,120 --> 01:22:26,040 remembering the I was writing up yesterday. 1757 01:22:26,560 --> 01:22:29,120 Maybe people will be remembering the nuclear, you know, Allen 1758 01:22:29,120 --> 01:22:32,960 playoff games in the past, but this this year, fewest passing 1759 01:22:32,960 --> 01:22:36,560 yards since the second season in 2019, fewest passing TD since 1760 01:22:36,560 --> 01:22:40,080 the second season in 2019. And I mean 25 passing TDs. 1761 01:22:40,080 --> 01:22:42,560 He's had no fewer than than 28 in all those years. 1762 01:22:42,560 --> 01:22:46,720 And and his good years are like up over 3536 hundred pass yards. 1763 01:22:46,720 --> 01:22:49,360 Like he he played all 17 games. I I guess he didn't he didn't 1764 01:22:49,360 --> 01:22:50,920 play the week 18. He played one snap. 1765 01:22:51,040 --> 01:22:55,640 Basically that was in 16 games. But his his passing numbers were 1766 01:22:55,640 --> 01:22:57,720 quite a bit lower this year. The rushing TDs and everything 1767 01:22:57,720 --> 01:23:00,280 were there. But if they go on a run and and 1768 01:23:00,280 --> 01:23:04,240 cook gets the touchdowns, it's I mean, Allen's scoring level was 1769 01:23:04,240 --> 01:23:09,920 not as like yeah, and May, I mean May, like I had May and 1770 01:23:10,400 --> 01:23:13,640 Alan on a dynasty team together and I it was 2 week 1771 01:23:13,640 --> 01:23:15,440 championship. I played May both weeks and 1772 01:23:15,440 --> 01:23:19,160 obvious and he I I would have lost if I didn't. 1773 01:23:19,160 --> 01:23:24,120 So yeah, May May is more comfy than Alan right now, I think 1774 01:23:24,120 --> 01:23:29,160 because the I mean, just to thinking about the first game, 1775 01:23:29,360 --> 01:23:32,640 right, They they're favored by more so. 1776 01:23:33,280 --> 01:23:35,360 And then you got to deal with the fact that he doesn't get the 1777 01:23:35,360 --> 01:23:38,240 Miami match up or the Pittsburgh match up or the like the clear 1778 01:23:38,240 --> 01:23:40,360 home victory. They're on the road against a 1779 01:23:40,360 --> 01:23:42,400 tough D in Jacksonville. Then if they do win, they're on 1780 01:23:42,400 --> 01:23:44,080 the road against a tough D in Denver. 1781 01:23:44,400 --> 01:23:46,640 Like if they if even if they beat Jaxville, they go lose to 1782 01:23:46,640 --> 01:23:49,080 Denver in a game where they don't play very good offense 1783 01:23:49,280 --> 01:23:51,040 because Denver's defense is that good. 1784 01:23:51,040 --> 01:23:52,640 And we're just talking about Denver. 1785 01:23:52,640 --> 01:23:54,720 If they win that, like Bonex isn't going to do anything. 1786 01:23:54,720 --> 01:23:56,080 They're going to win a low scoring game. 1787 01:23:56,080 --> 01:23:59,880 Like that's I like this thought experiment. 1788 01:23:59,880 --> 01:24:01,960 You went through 10 lineups and you can only choose Allen or 1789 01:24:01,960 --> 01:24:04,440 Tyler Trevor Lawrence as your quarterback. 1790 01:24:04,640 --> 01:24:05,760 How many of the 10 do you play Allen? 1791 01:24:05,760 --> 01:24:08,880 How many do you play T Law? Is that considering ownership or 1792 01:24:09,080 --> 01:24:10,680 like Pat's projected ownership or not? 1793 01:24:10,880 --> 01:24:13,560 I don't know if that Jewish McCaffrey has to answer that 1794 01:24:13,560 --> 01:24:14,680 question. I'm not sure. 1795 01:24:15,640 --> 01:24:18,240 I would assume you just. At current ownership, I'm going 1796 01:24:18,240 --> 01:24:22,360 9 Lawrence, 1 Allen. And without, without, without 1797 01:24:22,360 --> 01:24:23,600 considering. Ownership. 1798 01:24:23,600 --> 01:24:25,680 To me, without considering ownership I would. 1799 01:24:25,720 --> 01:24:26,880 Well, what we're all going to lose anyway? 1800 01:24:27,800 --> 01:24:29,480 Without considering ownership, I would go 5. 1801 01:24:29,480 --> 01:24:32,160 And five, sadly, I think. I was going to go 5 and I was 1802 01:24:32,160 --> 01:24:33,840 going to go 5 and 5 without. Consulting. 1803 01:24:33,880 --> 01:24:36,240 Ownership. What's that? 1804 01:24:36,240 --> 01:24:42,480 No, without ownership I 664 to Alan, Yeah, and I'd consider 1805 01:24:42,480 --> 01:24:45,000 7:00 to 3:00. I don't think we could do the 1806 01:24:45,000 --> 01:24:46,080 we're all going to lose bit anymore. 1807 01:24:46,080 --> 01:24:46,840 What would? You pick. 1808 01:24:49,280 --> 01:24:50,840 I just was. Straight I straight up I'm 1809 01:24:50,840 --> 01:24:52,920 picking the Jags in the game. Awesome. 1810 01:24:52,920 --> 01:24:56,800 I am too straight up and Bill, God damn it, I I I like 1811 01:24:56,800 --> 01:24:58,760 Jacksonville, the wins. This is a this is a good point, 1812 01:24:58,800 --> 01:24:59,880 Jacob. This is a good point. 1813 01:25:00,160 --> 01:25:02,600 That's why I was saying 55 because I because you have to 1814 01:25:02,600 --> 01:25:04,000 pick the game a little bit in your head. 1815 01:25:04,080 --> 01:25:08,320 The bills are favored by 1.5 points, for what it's worth, but 1816 01:25:08,400 --> 01:25:10,680 I would I would probably with ownership factored in, I would 1817 01:25:10,680 --> 01:25:15,640 be probably 8:00 to 2:00. But but Lawrence 7 to 7 to 3 1818 01:25:15,640 --> 01:25:18,720 Lawrence probably Lawrence has chalk on like Lawrence. 1819 01:25:18,880 --> 01:25:21,800 Well, so I mean, obviously Allen has cooked, but Lawrence also 1820 01:25:21,800 --> 01:25:24,400 has some good receiving weapons that that are gonna be played. 1821 01:25:24,880 --> 01:25:26,960 So I think I'm with Pat that I would be 6 four without 1822 01:25:26,960 --> 01:25:31,320 ownership, but I would be 82 Lawrence with ownership 7 three. 1823 01:25:31,320 --> 01:25:32,440 I don't know. I think I'm 73 but. 1824 01:25:32,720 --> 01:25:37,160 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. All right, so this was one to 1825 01:25:37,160 --> 01:25:40,800 keep an eye on because maybe I'm a maybe I'm still too high on on 1826 01:25:40,800 --> 01:25:42,200 Allen. It's it's something I'm worth 1827 01:25:42,920 --> 01:25:45,840 that I'm, you know, willing to kind of and worth reconsidering 1828 01:25:45,840 --> 01:25:48,680 throughout the the week. But let's move on for now. 1829 01:25:49,720 --> 01:25:54,000 And we've now done the three seed on the AFC, but not on the 1830 01:25:54,880 --> 01:25:56,400 NFC. Let's go to the Eagles. 1831 01:25:59,120 --> 01:26:01,920 So I've got Jalen Hertz at 12. This is where some of the other 1832 01:26:01,920 --> 01:26:03,880 ownership's coming from. I have him above Lawrence. 1833 01:26:03,880 --> 01:26:06,040 I have him above Nyx I. Don't have to do that. 1834 01:26:06,120 --> 01:26:09,440 Feels pretty juicy at 6%. That's my that's my first 1835 01:26:09,440 --> 01:26:09,840 thought. Right. 1836 01:26:09,840 --> 01:26:11,960 You want to play him there. Yeah. 1837 01:26:12,520 --> 01:26:14,640 Yeah, I do too, I think. Brown. 1838 01:26:14,640 --> 01:26:18,040 Over over like yes, and it it no, I agree. 1839 01:26:18,040 --> 01:26:21,520 I mean, I'm also just going to be higher on the Eagles than 1840 01:26:21,600 --> 01:26:22,520 than the. Average fair. 1841 01:26:22,520 --> 01:26:24,760 My my issue is I just want to play every eagle like I think 1842 01:26:24,760 --> 01:26:27,000 every eagle of this ownership is a good except for Goddard. 1843 01:26:27,000 --> 01:26:29,600 I don't want any part of that, but I I would I would you don't 1844 01:26:30,360 --> 01:26:32,280 like I don't like fake touchdowns. 1845 01:26:32,600 --> 01:26:35,520 I love Barclay, even at 40 against the Niners. 1846 01:26:36,200 --> 01:26:37,440 Look at this guys. I nailed it. 1847 01:26:37,800 --> 01:26:42,600 Hurts down up, hurts like 3% I. Fucking love. 1848 01:26:42,800 --> 01:26:46,800 It the only guy like Goddard, I think I both wouldn't want to 1849 01:26:46,800 --> 01:26:50,160 play at 19 and I don't think he'll be 19, but but that's 1850 01:26:50,160 --> 01:26:52,960 because I think Barkley and Brown and Smith and Hertz are 1851 01:26:52,960 --> 01:26:55,760 like all really good plays. It just feels so flaccid to take 1852 01:26:55,760 --> 01:26:58,280 their tight end. But I I know you got you got to 1853 01:26:58,280 --> 01:27:01,200 take a tight end from somewhere. I only have a tight end 119. 1854 01:27:01,200 --> 01:27:02,840 Maybe he comes down a little. I did. 1855 01:27:03,200 --> 01:27:05,520 So I was looking at 4 force projections. 1856 01:27:06,160 --> 01:27:12,200 They have Goddard as the number. Where did it go? 1857 01:27:12,400 --> 01:27:19,880 Damn it, they have got hurt as the number 2 tight end for their 1858 01:27:19,880 --> 01:27:23,440 for their rankings, which which facts are in expected It's going 1859 01:27:23,440 --> 01:27:25,320 to be played. He's definitely going to be 1860 01:27:25,320 --> 01:27:28,280 played because he's the only other tight end that you're like 1861 01:27:29,080 --> 01:27:32,760 he's a good tight end than Kittle, but Kittle has CMC and 1862 01:27:32,760 --> 01:27:34,840 people don't aren't as excited about Barclay. 1863 01:27:34,840 --> 01:27:38,480 Obviously this year. It's just like you've got to 1864 01:27:38,480 --> 01:27:40,320 play a tight end. It's not comfortable to play the 1865 01:27:40,320 --> 01:27:42,480 rookie Colston Loveland. It is for all of us because 1866 01:27:42,480 --> 01:27:43,760 we're slappies. But yeah, because we're 1867 01:27:43,760 --> 01:27:45,960 slappies. It's not for other people. 1868 01:27:47,000 --> 01:27:49,880 It's really more comfortable to play gotter over like a bunch of 1869 01:27:49,880 --> 01:27:53,120 superstars than it is to play Hunter Henry over a split 1870 01:27:53,120 --> 01:27:55,640 running back, backfield and old Stephon Diggs. 1871 01:27:55,680 --> 01:27:57,480 I I just can't. These superstars have sucked 1872 01:27:57,480 --> 01:27:59,720 this year. The supervars have sucked, have 1873 01:27:59,720 --> 01:28:02,160 sucked, man. But they get the worst defense 1874 01:28:02,160 --> 01:28:04,280 in the whole tournament at home. Round one. 1875 01:28:07,280 --> 01:28:08,560 Yeah, true. But I mean, you can. 1876 01:28:08,880 --> 01:28:11,960 So does Goddard, so does her. And if they win, you know, and 1877 01:28:11,960 --> 01:28:13,520 if they win? Yeah, but like. 1878 01:28:14,360 --> 01:28:17,320 If if they win this week, like the defensive matchups are so 1879 01:28:17,320 --> 01:28:20,320 golden for them, like they get the Niners who have a horrible 1880 01:28:20,320 --> 01:28:22,560 defense round one. If they win this week, they're 1881 01:28:22,560 --> 01:28:26,520 either going to get the OR I shouldn't say they're either 1882 01:28:26,520 --> 01:28:29,880 going to they there's a 50% chance ish that they get the 1883 01:28:29,880 --> 01:28:31,840 bears, who are probably the second worst defense in the 1884 01:28:31,840 --> 01:28:34,280 whole tournament, or they have to keep pace with the Rams. 1885 01:28:34,520 --> 01:28:38,360 Like that's that's just so such a juicy spot that makes me want 1886 01:28:38,360 --> 01:28:40,600 to play their more interesting players rather than playing 1887 01:28:40,600 --> 01:28:43,280 they're like, I hope he catches A touchdown tight end. 1888 01:28:44,240 --> 01:28:46,720 I get it. I just I don't know. 1889 01:28:46,720 --> 01:28:49,920 That's that seems high to me, but maybe I'm maybe you're right 1890 01:28:49,920 --> 01:28:52,920 and I just think he's a bad play, but maybe I'm a touch 1891 01:28:52,920 --> 01:28:54,560 high. I I might because I don't I 1892 01:28:54,560 --> 01:28:57,560 don't think he's a good play here, which I don't either, but 1893 01:28:57,560 --> 01:29:00,320 I do think the sentiment on Goddard is significantly pretty 1894 01:29:00,320 --> 01:29:04,360 good. Yeah, than than Hunter Henry 1895 01:29:04,360 --> 01:29:07,240 just from like name value what their AD PS were going into the 1896 01:29:07,240 --> 01:29:09,520 year, what their AD PS had been for several years. 1897 01:29:09,880 --> 01:29:12,200 Like some of these like Shorty's saying this stuff again, like he 1898 01:29:12,200 --> 01:29:15,680 says, what Pat pieces non QB are comfier than AJ and Barkley. 1899 01:29:16,120 --> 01:29:18,760 I that's not the only relevant question. 1900 01:29:18,760 --> 01:29:20,760 You have a framework that you're thinking through it. 1901 01:29:20,960 --> 01:29:23,320 There's other frameworks that people work through. 1902 01:29:23,320 --> 01:29:26,320 And I, I mean, that would just be my point is, I think Goddard, 1903 01:29:27,240 --> 01:29:29,840 it's like a longer term name value thing that people are 1904 01:29:29,840 --> 01:29:32,720 going to want to play him some that and you need to play that. 1905 01:29:32,720 --> 01:29:37,680 I agree with that. If if anything, I I actually 1906 01:29:37,680 --> 01:29:41,800 think Pat might be a smidgen high on Hertz here like that. 1907 01:29:41,800 --> 01:29:45,960 That's my gut and sink. I would say more people believe 1908 01:29:46,080 --> 01:29:47,960 the way Jacob believes about Hurts. 1909 01:29:47,960 --> 01:29:50,640 Now these people are wrong, make no mistake about it. 1910 01:29:50,640 --> 01:29:57,240 But that is the sentiment. And the Eagles are closer to 1911 01:29:57,280 --> 01:30:01,320 their 2023 version of themselves and the 2024 version of 1912 01:30:01,320 --> 01:30:05,520 themselves where they are not viewed as this death marching, 1913 01:30:05,520 --> 01:30:09,000 tush push, suffocating. They're they're honestly, 1914 01:30:09,000 --> 01:30:10,840 actually, I think a lot of the way that people think of them is 1915 01:30:10,840 --> 01:30:13,680 kind of the 2024 chief. So it's like, sure, you won 1916 01:30:13,680 --> 01:30:15,960 these games, but you didn't dominate anyone. 1917 01:30:16,200 --> 01:30:18,320 You lost. You don't have the big spark. 1918 01:30:19,320 --> 01:30:22,640 I think they're the Titans that we were talking about that that 1919 01:30:22,760 --> 01:30:26,680 that 2021 Titans one seed that had Derrick Henry and A.J. 1920 01:30:26,680 --> 01:30:29,040 Brown on it. But also people wanted to fade 1921 01:30:29,040 --> 01:30:30,400 that team. Like that's what I think. 1922 01:30:30,400 --> 01:30:33,160 They're a run heavy team, but they weren't even that good. 1923 01:30:33,480 --> 01:30:35,920 Like what was the what was the Eagles ownership? 1924 01:30:35,920 --> 01:30:37,480 Death March. What was the? 1925 01:30:37,480 --> 01:30:40,160 Ownership for the, for these actual Eagles 2 years ago when 1926 01:30:40,160 --> 01:30:41,960 they also were like kind of limping in. 1927 01:30:44,000 --> 01:30:47,920 When they were limping in, he was only at 4% Hurts, but they 1928 01:30:47,920 --> 01:30:55,440 were really limping in 13% to make the Super Bowl that season. 1929 01:30:55,600 --> 01:31:01,480 They're I think 18% this year. And the other thing, 19%. 1930 01:31:01,560 --> 01:31:04,280 And the other thing that's really important between those 1931 01:31:04,280 --> 01:31:07,280 two years is that there's 68% to win this week. 1932 01:31:08,760 --> 01:31:13,600 And two years ago, 02 years ago, they were 60%. 1933 01:31:13,600 --> 01:31:19,640 So not a huge difference. But yeah, I think the we did in 1934 01:31:19,640 --> 01:31:22,760 the interim see them, you know, marched and win the Super Bowl. 1935 01:31:22,760 --> 01:31:25,720 So I I think there's like potentially more optimism on 1936 01:31:25,720 --> 01:31:27,520 them recapturing that form in the playoffs. 1937 01:31:28,040 --> 01:31:29,360 Fair. There's yeah, maybe a little 1938 01:31:29,360 --> 01:31:32,240 high, but no, the other the other massive thing is there's 1939 01:31:32,240 --> 01:31:35,600 no Lamar Jackson like we the last couple years it's been 1940 01:31:35,600 --> 01:31:39,360 Lamar and Josh Allen have been our chalk Q BS and Josh Allen is 1941 01:31:39,360 --> 01:31:42,320 not a two seed again, right like Jalen Hurts. 1942 01:31:42,440 --> 01:31:44,880 When you tell yourself a story of who's making a run in the 1943 01:31:44,880 --> 01:31:48,440 NFC, the Eagles are a very easy team to tell yourself that story 1944 01:31:48,440 --> 01:31:51,480 on there, Patrick said they're 68% to win this week. 1945 01:31:51,640 --> 01:31:54,120 Then they go to Chicago if Chicago wins, or else they. 1946 01:31:54,120 --> 01:31:56,160 Host. If the Packers win, they get to 1947 01:31:56,160 --> 01:31:58,280 host the next round and then what? 1948 01:31:58,280 --> 01:32:02,080 They got to beat the Seahawks. Like Sam Darnold's going to 1949 01:32:02,080 --> 01:32:04,080 really go and beat the defending champs. 1950 01:32:04,080 --> 01:32:07,560 I mean, people have already chalked the Eagles up as going 1951 01:32:07,560 --> 01:32:10,480 back to the Super Bowl as the the sharp team that no one's 1952 01:32:10,480 --> 01:32:15,040 actually playing or whatever in a in a wide open, it's wide open 1953 01:32:15,040 --> 01:32:17,160 this year, right? Everyone would agree with that. 1954 01:32:17,280 --> 01:32:21,480 And you can kind of you can pick your team to go to the Super 1955 01:32:21,480 --> 01:32:25,200 Bowl. The other angle that's the key 1956 01:32:25,200 --> 01:32:27,920 here beyond just double points in the Super Bowl and one of the 1957 01:32:27,920 --> 01:32:30,320 things that gets brought up year after year in the tournament is 1958 01:32:30,320 --> 01:32:34,040 four games from your quarterback with one of them counting 1959 01:32:34,040 --> 01:32:36,320 double. Can you find the team that goes 1960 01:32:36,320 --> 01:32:39,320 to the Super Bowl? And that's why everyone wanted 1961 01:32:39,320 --> 01:32:42,880 Allen as the two seed. That's why everyone wanted Lamar 1962 01:32:42,880 --> 01:32:44,360 when he when he was in that spot. 1963 01:32:44,560 --> 01:32:47,760 Hertz is that QB this year. Hertz is that QB, right? 1964 01:32:47,760 --> 01:32:52,160 Like Hertz, Hertz is going to, I mean, if you're a 49ers fan or 1965 01:32:52,160 --> 01:32:54,400 if you believe in that offense enough to overcome the, the 1966 01:32:54,400 --> 01:32:56,920 defense, sure, the 49ers can win that game. 1967 01:32:56,920 --> 01:32:59,160 But I think most people are picking the Eagles to win that 1968 01:32:59,160 --> 01:33:00,800 game. And like you're saying, it 1969 01:33:00,800 --> 01:33:03,360 could, it could set up pretty well for them in Round 2. 1970 01:33:03,760 --> 01:33:06,880 They go into Chicago. That feels a very winnable game. 1971 01:33:07,600 --> 01:33:09,520 You know, now they're the championship. 1972 01:33:09,920 --> 01:33:12,480 You're already live for him to be optimal in three. 1973 01:33:12,480 --> 01:33:15,680 And then if if the Eagles get to the Super Bowl, you're like, and 1974 01:33:15,680 --> 01:33:20,560 then Barkley has not been, I mean, Barkley was 69% owned last 1975 01:33:20,560 --> 01:33:23,640 year after the season he's had. I have him way down from that at 1976 01:33:23,640 --> 01:33:26,560 42. I think a little bit of that 1977 01:33:26,560 --> 01:33:28,240 goes to Hertz where it's like, hey, if I'm betting on the 1978 01:33:28,240 --> 01:33:31,560 Eagles to make a run, why don't I bet on Hertz and get my 1979 01:33:31,560 --> 01:33:34,480 quarterback to get four games, including the double point Super 1980 01:33:34,480 --> 01:33:35,960 Bowl? That's why that's how I got to 1981 01:33:35,960 --> 01:33:38,320 this. I think your Hertz ownership is, 1982 01:33:38,400 --> 01:33:39,680 is, is good. Yeah. 1983 01:33:39,760 --> 01:33:41,760 Yeah. I think all your ownership here 1984 01:33:41,760 --> 01:33:43,320 is good. I think it's a strong, yeah, 1985 01:33:44,120 --> 01:33:49,640 that's a strong group. We're still we're still not 50% 1986 01:33:49,640 --> 01:33:51,880 of the way through. We're we're getting close, 1987 01:33:52,280 --> 01:33:55,840 really close. Yeah, we're close to 50% now 1988 01:33:56,320 --> 01:33:59,800 four seed in the NFC is the Panthers. 1989 01:34:00,880 --> 01:34:02,520 So let's. Well, this will be this will be 1990 01:34:02,520 --> 01:34:03,680 quick. This will be quick. 1991 01:34:03,720 --> 01:34:05,240 Let's we're gonna make up some time. 1992 01:34:05,280 --> 01:34:06,440 I'll I put it in the private chat. 1993 01:34:06,440 --> 01:34:07,640 I gotta go. It's like 10 minutes. 1994 01:34:07,640 --> 01:34:09,080 I didn't realize it's gonna take 3 hours. 1995 01:34:09,120 --> 01:34:14,240 I'm sorry, but but Hertz is great at that ownership, by the 1996 01:34:14,240 --> 01:34:15,000 way. I love people. 1997 01:34:15,120 --> 01:34:16,400 People are saying he's way too high. 1998 01:34:16,400 --> 01:34:17,880 He's way too low. I do think that hurts. 1999 01:34:18,080 --> 01:34:20,080 He's about right. I think I think your Panthers 2000 01:34:20,080 --> 01:34:21,920 ownership is right on the money. You're fat. 2001 01:34:22,480 --> 01:34:24,640 Good job. All right, McMillan will get 2002 01:34:24,640 --> 01:34:27,240 played some, but he's going to anybody going to play Rico 2003 01:34:27,240 --> 01:34:28,640 Dowdle? Rico Dowdle. 2004 01:34:28,640 --> 01:34:31,000 Would be kind of a. Yeah, like a a person or 2A. 2005 01:34:31,200 --> 01:34:33,240 Couple of people. I think a little. 2006 01:34:33,840 --> 01:34:36,000 It's a little, it's a little spot on here. 2007 01:34:36,000 --> 01:34:39,640 And and I think you could argue like, dude, they're 10 1/2 point 2008 01:34:39,640 --> 01:34:40,600 dogs. They're not. 2009 01:34:40,680 --> 01:34:43,600 If they win, it's going to be so annoying. 2010 01:34:43,920 --> 01:34:45,200 Like I, I, I think he's not going to. 2011 01:34:45,280 --> 01:34:48,040 Win him let's let's go to they're not going to win so 2012 01:34:48,040 --> 01:34:49,520 let's talk about the team that's going to beat them. 2013 01:34:51,720 --> 01:34:54,920 So I have Stafford at 8 so he's in that mix now Stafford, 2014 01:34:54,920 --> 01:35:00,960 Lawrence Nicks all at 8 kind of the feels high feels high for 2015 01:35:00,960 --> 01:35:03,000 Stafford. There's been a lot of Stafford 2016 01:35:03,000 --> 01:35:03,920 love in the chat as we've gone tonight. 2017 01:35:03,920 --> 01:35:05,920 I'm going to correct myself in Stafford love as well. 2018 01:35:06,520 --> 01:35:10,800 I think it's too high, but I keep people keep telling me 2019 01:35:10,800 --> 01:35:13,040 they're like, man, I think Stafford's the play this year 2020 01:35:13,040 --> 01:35:16,200 and I don't agree with them, but I do keep hearing it. 2021 01:35:16,960 --> 01:35:22,000 I think it's kind of crazy cuz I think that again, his Super Bowl 2022 01:35:22,000 --> 01:35:25,520 path with such a superstar teammate against all of these 2023 01:35:25,520 --> 01:35:28,520 AFC quarterbacks who have way inferior teammates to Puka 2024 01:35:29,400 --> 01:35:30,920 without any rushing touchdown upside. 2025 01:35:30,920 --> 01:35:33,160 Like I think it's thin and I don't like Stafford at that 2026 01:35:33,160 --> 01:35:35,840 ownership, but I haven't seen these numbers yet. 2027 01:35:35,840 --> 01:35:40,200 But I think Stafford is too high and not I'm not correct myself. 2028 01:35:40,200 --> 01:35:42,320 What Jacob is. I think this is wrong for the 2029 01:35:42,320 --> 01:35:44,320 projected ownership. I think he's gonna come in below 2030 01:35:44,320 --> 01:35:45,760 this. I think Puka is gonna come in 2031 01:35:45,760 --> 01:35:48,680 above this. There's I, I don't think enough 2032 01:35:48,680 --> 01:35:50,680 people are going to talk themselves into Stafford being 2033 01:35:50,680 --> 01:35:53,200 the the pick over puka in a long run. 2034 01:35:53,600 --> 01:35:55,800 If you tell yourself, dude, I heard a bunch of Adam's love 2035 01:35:55,800 --> 01:35:57,840 today. It it definitely I so Adam's 2036 01:35:57,840 --> 01:36:00,040 over puka. I I actually can't understand 2037 01:36:00,040 --> 01:36:02,320 because they're going to say that Adam scores all the TV's. 2038 01:36:02,880 --> 01:36:05,400 But yeah. You still plan to receive, but 2039 01:36:05,400 --> 01:36:07,520 if you're coming, I'll get feedback into my barter point 2040 01:36:07,520 --> 01:36:10,360 again where it's like, I don't want to bet against like I don't 2041 01:36:10,360 --> 01:36:13,000 want to bet against puka between the 20s. 2042 01:36:13,000 --> 01:36:14,760 Pooka fucking dominates these fools. 2043 01:36:14,760 --> 01:36:17,400 Like the biggest advantage Adams and Kyron have is at the goal 2044 01:36:17,400 --> 01:36:18,640 line. So I'm less. 2045 01:36:19,320 --> 01:36:22,920 I'm just gonna play Pooka 8%. I feel about France for some of 2046 01:36:22,920 --> 01:36:26,040 the people in the chat for reference, because I don't need 2047 01:36:26,040 --> 01:36:30,360 to tell you guys this, but 8% is a high number for a quarterback. 2048 01:36:30,440 --> 01:36:32,920 It's a pretty strong number. There's fourteen teams. 2049 01:36:33,240 --> 01:36:36,080 Like at the end of this, we usually go by position. 2050 01:36:36,080 --> 01:36:38,000 And again, if we sort of by position right now, I think you 2051 01:36:38,000 --> 01:36:41,200 have T Law at 8 now, but you had Bo Nicks lower than 8%. 2052 01:36:41,360 --> 01:36:44,360 That's crazy to me that you had Stafford at 8, Nicks at six, for 2053 01:36:44,360 --> 01:36:46,720 example, what Stafford has. I hope that's right. 2054 01:36:46,840 --> 01:36:49,200 That's that's not the way the field's going to play it. 2055 01:36:49,800 --> 01:36:51,760 Well, I mean. I wouldn't play it like that 2056 01:36:51,840 --> 01:36:54,640 either, but I've just heard Stafford be touted like so much. 2057 01:36:54,760 --> 01:36:57,240 No, it seems like people think with you, I'm with you both 2058 01:36:57,240 --> 01:36:59,360 simultaneously. Like I think it's insane that 2059 01:36:59,480 --> 01:37:02,040 who's touting in my first run. Is it people that are doing like 2060 01:37:02,040 --> 01:37:04,280 2 of their own entries and are not that serious about the 2061 01:37:04,280 --> 01:37:05,600 tournament? Or is it people that are playing 2062 01:37:05,600 --> 01:37:08,600 the tournament really heavily and and I'm not I'm not, I'm not 2063 01:37:08,680 --> 01:37:10,200 sure which. I'm not sure that is a fair 2064 01:37:10,200 --> 01:37:12,400 question because sometimes people are like, Oh, I got a 2065 01:37:12,400 --> 01:37:14,000 great idea about this and I'm like, you're not even playing 2066 01:37:14,000 --> 01:37:15,800 the tournament. You're making one team. 2067 01:37:15,800 --> 01:37:19,880 Like that's a good point Bev that Stafford might have 2068 01:37:19,880 --> 01:37:22,680 disproportionate ownership and the phone shitter contingent. 2069 01:37:23,040 --> 01:37:25,640 Exactly. And that's 2% that's not 8%. 2070 01:37:25,680 --> 01:37:27,360 The eight. I want to know like the the 2071 01:37:27,360 --> 01:37:29,680 people that are actually like for real. 2072 01:37:29,680 --> 01:37:31,400 Pepper feels incredibly inevitable. 2073 01:37:31,920 --> 01:37:34,280 I did Stafford on one and Puko on 9. 2074 01:37:34,280 --> 01:37:36,480 Stafford feel inevitable. You can only play one player 2075 01:37:36,480 --> 01:37:38,760 from a team. Puka feels inevitable. 2076 01:37:38,960 --> 01:37:42,840 Puka Nakua do you guys? Do you know about a player named 2077 01:37:42,840 --> 01:37:44,520 Puka Nakua? Got. 2078 01:37:44,960 --> 01:37:47,240 Inevitable when I do. Have you know, I do have no 2079 01:37:47,320 --> 01:37:49,600 question Matthew Stafford, Dan Orlovsky. 2080 01:37:49,640 --> 01:37:55,520 Dan Orlovsky is, is, is, Yeah. I I got AI got a question for 2081 01:37:55,520 --> 01:37:58,040 you guys that might change this conversation a little bit and 2082 01:37:58,040 --> 01:38:01,280 I'm sure you guys will know this, but with Devante Adams 2083 01:38:01,280 --> 01:38:04,320 active and healthy, do does anyone want to state the number 2084 01:38:04,320 --> 01:38:07,200 of touchdowns that Puka Nakua scored in games that Adams 2085 01:38:07,200 --> 01:38:09,240 played? Probably like 4, probably like 2086 01:38:09,240 --> 01:38:11,360 4. How many games? 2087 01:38:11,680 --> 01:38:15,040 5 How many games total? Would have been 14 games 14. 2088 01:38:15,960 --> 01:38:18,760 No, because Puka missed one of those himself and he left early. 2089 01:38:18,800 --> 01:38:22,720 Another one. So really 12, I'm getting 2090 01:38:22,720 --> 01:38:25,160 Lawrence up to 10% now. He left in the second quarter. 2091 01:38:25,240 --> 01:38:28,000 That's a classic Davis Maddock. Technically true, but highly 2092 01:38:28,000 --> 01:38:31,560 misleading statement. Yeah, but maybe I'm wrong. 2093 01:38:31,640 --> 01:38:33,120 It's. The type of statement that is 2094 01:38:33,120 --> 01:38:34,720 going to sway people playing this tournament. 2095 01:38:35,360 --> 01:38:38,560 So yeah, David is much more in touch with the boomers than I 2096 01:38:38,560 --> 01:38:39,800 am. I'll, I'll, I'll concede. 2097 01:38:39,800 --> 01:38:43,120 That that's So what I what I'm telling you is that that for the 2098 01:38:43,120 --> 01:38:46,640 boomer mind, the Safeway to play the Rams is Matt Stafford. 2099 01:38:47,720 --> 01:38:50,840 Yeah, so, Pat, I just said very definitively I thought 8 was 2100 01:38:50,840 --> 01:38:53,080 wrong. And now I'm like, I mean, people 2101 01:38:53,080 --> 01:38:55,840 forget he's the MVP. He gets there every game. 2102 01:38:55,840 --> 01:39:00,320 Stafford 4 TDs to four different tight ends in the Super Bowl for 2103 01:39:00,320 --> 01:39:02,120 double points. Like people are going to tell 2104 01:39:02,120 --> 01:39:05,480 themselves that story. The tight end thing, I man, 2105 01:39:05,680 --> 01:39:07,320 maybe I'll do. I mean, I'll do. 2106 01:39:07,320 --> 01:39:09,320 Dirko said it. People could lean into the 2107 01:39:09,360 --> 01:39:12,840 mobile tight end thing of of the really, really high owned 2108 01:39:12,840 --> 01:39:15,080 players in this tournament, Puka's the one that I think I'll 2109 01:39:15,080 --> 01:39:17,280 actually play higher than what I project his ownership to be. 2110 01:39:18,120 --> 01:39:21,200 Well, I think I think Adams is going to get played and I just 2111 01:39:21,200 --> 01:39:23,080 want to play Puka. Give me puka. 2112 01:39:23,080 --> 01:39:25,880 Yeah, but I but I do think Adams gets played. 2113 01:39:25,880 --> 01:39:27,600 I don't think Adams is like sub 10. 2114 01:39:27,600 --> 01:39:31,120 No, that's true. So I think Puka's actually 2115 01:39:31,120 --> 01:39:34,080 pretty good chalk, if even, you know, if he's at 70. 2116 01:39:34,960 --> 01:39:38,000 I think he will be though. I think, I mean Davis just Davis 2117 01:39:38,000 --> 01:39:40,680 just leaned into the the the boomer TD narrative. 2118 01:39:40,680 --> 01:39:43,440 He just gave us the stat of how many touchdowns Puka scored it 2119 01:39:43,480 --> 01:39:45,000 out. Davis knows Davis. 2120 01:39:45,080 --> 01:39:47,920 You think Kyron's a little high? Like does Kyron come in even 2121 01:39:47,920 --> 01:39:50,640 lower than this? No, I think boomers like. 2122 01:39:50,640 --> 01:39:52,640 Running Quorums. Quorum's healthy. 2123 01:39:52,640 --> 01:39:56,440 He he came back in the Week 18 game with the ankle. 2124 01:39:56,480 --> 01:39:58,040 You know, I could. I could see. 2125 01:39:58,040 --> 01:40:00,680 I could see Kyron. I think the FFPC boomers love 2126 01:40:00,680 --> 01:40:04,400 Kyron Williams. Do the tight ends get played at 2127 01:40:04,400 --> 01:40:07,440 all? It's just too messy because. 2128 01:40:07,880 --> 01:40:10,880 Maybe a one, but I doubt it. They're not even getting drafted 2129 01:40:10,880 --> 01:40:12,920 in like, like in like playoff basketball stuff. 2130 01:40:12,920 --> 01:40:15,000 They're like in the 50s, like they're barely getting picked. 2131 01:40:15,520 --> 01:40:17,080 Yeah, because you can't even pick which one of them. 2132 01:40:17,080 --> 01:40:17,480 No. Yeah. 2133 01:40:17,480 --> 01:40:19,760 I, I had Parkinson at 1:00 and then I just took it out. 2134 01:40:19,840 --> 01:40:22,840 It's it's like nothing, nothing can possibly feel worse than 2135 01:40:22,840 --> 01:40:25,040 like I've I've decided to fade puka. 2136 01:40:25,040 --> 01:40:28,400 I've also Kyron at 8 atoms and I might not even pick the right 2137 01:40:28,400 --> 01:40:29,880 tight end. Like that? 2138 01:40:29,960 --> 01:40:34,040 That feels awful. Yeah, Kyra Korum should not be 2139 01:40:34,040 --> 01:40:36,840 played like Korum is a horrendously bad play in this. 2140 01:40:37,640 --> 01:40:41,920 But but it does make me that kind of makes me wonder if the 2141 01:40:41,920 --> 01:40:45,080 Korum will be if you're playing a tight ends, you're taking 2142 01:40:45,080 --> 01:40:46,640 staff for inside it. Yeah, that's a good point. 2143 01:40:46,800 --> 01:40:47,560 Yeah. Yeah. 2144 01:40:49,360 --> 01:40:52,200 You don't need the running back this year. 2145 01:40:52,200 --> 01:40:56,440 I like at all in in the lineup. So I don't think I think Karen 2146 01:40:58,360 --> 01:41:00,400 Karen might even be a little. I'm going to get Karen to six 2147 01:41:00,400 --> 01:41:02,960 and and Puka to 70. 1. Yeah. 2148 01:41:03,680 --> 01:41:06,640 Because I guess I don't think if you're playing Rams to win and 2149 01:41:06,640 --> 01:41:09,800 it's not puka, right? If you're playing Rams to lose 2150 01:41:09,920 --> 01:41:11,280 and it's not puka, you play Adams. 2151 01:41:11,920 --> 01:41:14,880 If you're playing Rams to win and it's not puka, you play 2152 01:41:14,880 --> 01:41:17,440 Stafford. I think so, yeah. 2153 01:41:17,920 --> 01:41:19,800 I think yeah, Kyra might even be 5 all. 2154 01:41:21,960 --> 01:41:24,920 Right. What other team we got here? 2155 01:41:25,360 --> 01:41:28,920 All right. We are going to go to Niners. 2156 01:41:29,640 --> 01:41:33,600 No, I think we need to go to the the Steelers and the Texans. 2157 01:41:34,040 --> 01:41:36,240 OK, right. Go back over there and see I've 2158 01:41:36,400 --> 01:41:38,440 I've got to run. I'm sorry, I did not realize I 2159 01:41:38,440 --> 01:41:40,520 would get through 50% of this in an hour for you. 2160 01:41:40,520 --> 01:41:43,200 But I also the reason for that because I talked about Bonex for 2161 01:41:43,560 --> 01:41:45,520 a year so. I love you. 2162 01:41:45,520 --> 01:41:48,200 Guys, I will be tuning in for the rest of this. 2163 01:41:48,200 --> 01:41:50,080 I'll be tuning in for the rest of the show and hope to see you 2164 01:41:50,080 --> 01:41:51,000 guys at the top of the leaderboard. 2165 01:41:51,360 --> 01:41:56,640 See you guys later. If possible, can you make a 2166 01:41:56,640 --> 01:41:59,160 chart for tomorrow? No. 2167 01:42:04,520 --> 01:42:07,000 Great. Pat has too many gauntlets left 2168 01:42:07,000 --> 01:42:09,080 to draft. Not going to be making a chart. 2169 01:42:09,160 --> 01:42:16,720 But threat? But that's a good reminder that 2170 01:42:16,720 --> 01:42:20,360 you can get this ownership over at Legendary Upside or in the 2171 01:42:20,360 --> 01:42:23,160 ship chasing. As a ship chasing member, you 2172 01:42:23,320 --> 01:42:25,480 sign up for the the premium YouTube membership, which you 2173 01:42:25,480 --> 01:42:30,960 should do yeah, if you do that, you can make the discord yeah, 2174 01:42:30,960 --> 01:42:34,960 you can make the own chart. You can make your own chart with 2175 01:42:34,960 --> 01:42:36,480 with with the percentages that will. 2176 01:42:36,480 --> 01:42:39,000 Be available to you. On the spreadsheet that I share 2177 01:42:39,000 --> 01:42:44,360 with you. All right, So Pittsburgh, any 2178 01:42:44,360 --> 01:42:46,640 any thoughts here? I mean, I did hear people 2179 01:42:46,640 --> 01:42:48,440 talking about Gainwell a little bit. 2180 01:42:48,440 --> 01:42:52,840 I got him up to 8%. Gingwell's kind of a a guy you 2181 01:42:52,840 --> 01:42:55,440 play in a loss. I was gonna say, he's so good in 2182 01:42:55,440 --> 01:42:58,400 a loss. And yeah, I mean, he's fun. 2183 01:42:58,560 --> 01:43:03,440 I I I guess it makes sense for Boswell to be the chalk. 2184 01:43:03,680 --> 01:43:05,480 That's a. Lot from a loss. 2185 01:43:06,200 --> 01:43:09,200 Well, because so I was thinking about this, we were, we started 2186 01:43:09,200 --> 01:43:12,040 talking about this on our, our ADP chasing the other day. 2187 01:43:12,560 --> 01:43:16,840 And it's like you actually, because my gut instinct was 2188 01:43:16,840 --> 01:43:20,280 Texans D or Fairbearn. And the chat was like, oh, dude, 2189 01:43:20,280 --> 01:43:22,440 come on, Fairbearn. Like it's all, it's all 2190 01:43:22,440 --> 01:43:29,560 Fairbearn, right. And but the, the Texans, like 2191 01:43:29,560 --> 01:43:32,520 we, we could see the Texans. I mean, Corinne and I filled out 2192 01:43:32,520 --> 01:43:34,640 our bracket the other day and it's like, I don't know, pretty 2193 01:43:34,640 --> 01:43:37,240 freaking easy for them to get to the AFC Conference Championship, 2194 01:43:37,240 --> 01:43:40,040 in which case you're really going to have wanted to add Nico 2195 01:43:40,600 --> 01:43:42,560 or or because you have to use a tight end. 2196 01:43:42,920 --> 01:43:46,040 Schultz. Which this is a long way to get 2197 01:43:46,040 --> 01:43:48,840 there too. I actually completely see it 2198 01:43:48,840 --> 01:43:53,000 with Pit D and Boswell and Fade. But why not just a heart fade? 2199 01:43:54,400 --> 01:43:56,840 Because it's a it's over under that's under 40. 2200 01:43:56,840 --> 01:43:59,760 Why would Boswell be in? Well, people like Boswell, man. 2201 01:44:00,760 --> 01:44:04,160 People like Boswell, yeah. People like Boswell and. 2202 01:44:04,200 --> 01:44:07,160 So bad on Boswell last year, like Boswell I think might have 2203 01:44:07,160 --> 01:44:09,160 been my biggest miss, but he was the kick. 2204 01:44:09,160 --> 01:44:11,760 We talked about this last night. He was the overall #1 kicker in 2205 01:44:11,760 --> 01:44:14,400 the regular season. Last year was not this year was 2206 01:44:14,400 --> 01:44:17,080 not this year was Bear Baron was bear Baron was who I have 2207 01:44:17,080 --> 01:44:20,720 ownership one because yeah, I think I think there's going to 2208 01:44:20,720 --> 01:44:25,080 be stuff where people go like Gainwell Texans D and are 2209 01:44:25,080 --> 01:44:32,240 playing for the Texans to win running back versus the D you're 2210 01:44:32,240 --> 01:44:34,520 soft fading. You're running back in our I 2211 01:44:34,560 --> 01:44:36,440 think people will do that. I think there will be teams that 2212 01:44:36,440 --> 01:44:37,600 soft. Fade and. 2213 01:44:37,640 --> 01:44:40,280 The Texans I'll play this both ways. 2214 01:44:40,400 --> 01:44:42,040 I'm playing this both ways. I'm playing this both ways. 2215 01:44:42,280 --> 01:44:45,400 I got the GSTI think the Texans D is to to a level. 2216 01:44:45,520 --> 01:44:46,600 I'm just bringing the Texans here. 2217 01:44:46,600 --> 01:44:50,280 I think the Texans D people are excited about now. 2218 01:44:50,280 --> 01:44:51,720 They're also excited about Fairbairn. 2219 01:44:51,960 --> 01:44:55,080 I have the DA little higher. Yeah, Fairbairn, immediate gut 2220 01:44:55,080 --> 01:44:56,080 call. Here's Fairbairn. 2221 01:44:56,080 --> 01:44:59,760 Looks low to me. Where does it come from? 2222 01:45:00,320 --> 01:45:02,760 So like here, so it comes from. What's a high number? 2223 01:45:03,520 --> 01:45:07,400 First, first thing is you, you as you guys were just mentioning 2224 01:45:07,400 --> 01:45:11,040 with Boswell, you have to account for when people know 2225 01:45:11,040 --> 01:45:14,520 these guys's names. Fairbairn, Fairbairn being a 2226 01:45:14,600 --> 01:45:18,560 like and and he had a crazy good fantasy season. 2227 01:45:19,360 --> 01:45:20,200 Yes, he did. Speaking. 2228 01:45:20,200 --> 01:45:23,040 Yes, he did. Not kicking at Heinz Field, 2229 01:45:23,160 --> 01:45:27,840 kicking indoors and NRG Stadium. Also, I mean, to to the to the 2230 01:45:27,840 --> 01:45:31,400 people who want to do this. Texans D was the right play last 2231 01:45:31,400 --> 01:45:32,760 year with Mcconkey on the other side. 2232 01:45:32,760 --> 01:45:35,240 So like there's it's not like it couldn't work. 2233 01:45:35,520 --> 01:45:36,720 It could work. It did work. 2234 01:45:37,440 --> 01:45:41,400 It literally worked last year. I think I just for the record, 2235 01:45:41,960 --> 01:45:46,920 Marx to me just seems awful. It's like he sucks dude. 2236 01:45:46,920 --> 01:45:48,920 He just he's. Really bad at football. 2237 01:45:49,320 --> 01:45:51,840 I've been kind of picking on Shorty and he goes best play on 2238 01:45:51,840 --> 01:45:54,000 the slate, 5% when he was like great. 2239 01:45:54,000 --> 01:45:56,200 We just have different opinions on everything. 2240 01:45:56,200 --> 01:46:00,200 That's fine, we can. You made I like shorties. 2241 01:46:00,320 --> 01:46:02,720 Getting shorties opinions because they're not like ours 2242 01:46:02,720 --> 01:46:04,880 and I'm trying to figure out where people are gonna do. 2243 01:46:05,600 --> 01:46:06,920 No, people are going to want to play Marks. 2244 01:46:06,920 --> 01:46:08,560 Marks. People like to project marks. 2245 01:46:08,760 --> 01:46:11,800 Every week he scores less than his projection, but we just keep 2246 01:46:11,800 --> 01:46:13,840 projecting him the same amount and pretending that he's 2247 01:46:13,840 --> 01:46:16,920 something other than what he is, which is a non prospect as a 2248 01:46:16,920 --> 01:46:18,920 rusher that they're using as a rusher. 2249 01:46:19,240 --> 01:46:23,840 He was a receiving prospect, caught 22 passes all year. 2250 01:46:23,960 --> 01:46:26,960 They don't actually throw to their back CJ Stroud and the way 2251 01:46:26,960 --> 01:46:29,160 that he plays quarterback, he doesn't check down a ton. 2252 01:46:29,320 --> 01:46:31,560 They use a goomba wall in some of the obvious pass downs. 2253 01:46:31,840 --> 01:46:34,560 Marks doesn't actually catch passes, which is his one skill 2254 01:46:34,560 --> 01:46:37,960 set. Has no profile as a missed 2255 01:46:37,960 --> 01:46:41,240 tackle force guys as a college player or this year as a rookie. 2256 01:46:41,760 --> 01:46:45,280 Breakaway run rate as a prospect player five years or as a 2257 01:46:45,280 --> 01:46:47,920 rookie. Didn't get volume ever as five 2258 01:46:47,920 --> 01:46:50,640 years as a as a runner. You're the teams that had him in 2259 01:46:50,640 --> 01:46:52,520 college, they threw to him a ton. 2260 01:46:52,640 --> 01:46:55,920 They didn't run him, but the Texans did for some reason and 2261 01:46:55,920 --> 01:46:58,240 got terrible results. He's got like a 3.5 yards per 2262 01:46:58,240 --> 01:47:01,600 carry, terrible yards after contact every year in college. 2263 01:47:01,920 --> 01:47:03,880 None of it is translating to the pros. 2264 01:47:04,080 --> 01:47:06,320 They got Jawar Jordan out up there for like a little bit and 2265 01:47:06,320 --> 01:47:08,560 he was better than him immediately and they've been 2266 01:47:08,560 --> 01:47:10,680 using him a little bit since Marks came back. 2267 01:47:11,000 --> 01:47:13,240 I I think they're going to use Marks more than Jordan. 2268 01:47:13,560 --> 01:47:16,760 This is a team that clearly did not expect Joe Mixon to not play 2269 01:47:16,760 --> 01:47:18,360 all year. And this was the best they could 2270 01:47:18,360 --> 01:47:20,840 do because they also had Nick Chubb and they didn't have a lot 2271 01:47:20,840 --> 01:47:22,640 of flexibility with the different running backs. 2272 01:47:22,880 --> 01:47:25,560 They've been playing Marks. This guy's a non prospect. 2273 01:47:25,680 --> 01:47:28,400 He called him the Acres play. Acres was a prospect, dude. 2274 01:47:28,400 --> 01:47:32,920 No, there is an Acres play and it's not It's not Woody Marks. 2275 01:47:32,920 --> 01:47:37,520 The Acres play references when we one of my favorite plays a 2276 01:47:37,520 --> 01:47:40,040 few years ago was when the Rams were playing, I think the 2277 01:47:40,040 --> 01:47:42,560 Seahawks and everyone was fading the Rams. 2278 01:47:42,560 --> 01:47:45,920 The Rams were getting overly faded relative to to their odds 2279 01:47:45,920 --> 01:47:48,880 of winning the game because the offense was kind of gross. 2280 01:47:49,440 --> 01:47:51,720 And I guess did they not have cup? 2281 01:47:51,720 --> 01:47:54,840 I don't even remember, but but Acres was ended up being a 2282 01:47:54,840 --> 01:47:57,920 pretty strong play. I don't think. 2283 01:47:58,480 --> 01:48:02,640 I think with the pre cup you you really liked the anchors and you 2284 01:48:02,640 --> 01:48:06,360 really liked the the path. If they won their second round 2285 01:48:06,360 --> 01:48:09,920 matchup was likely to be another good like run matchup. 2286 01:48:10,440 --> 01:48:14,160 And you were like there's gonna it's gonna be a really good two 2287 01:48:14,160 --> 01:48:16,880 game slate of like run matchups. And it's exactly the way it 2288 01:48:16,880 --> 01:48:18,960 played out. It was just like a super good 2289 01:48:18,960 --> 01:48:21,000 call on the way the bracket would play out and and where the 2290 01:48:21,120 --> 01:48:23,240 the production would come from in the Rams offense. 2291 01:48:23,440 --> 01:48:26,000 But the this team doesn't run at that time. 2292 01:48:26,000 --> 01:48:28,280 Yeah, at that time, Akers was kind of potential like the 2293 01:48:28,280 --> 01:48:30,120 engine of the offense to their victories. 2294 01:48:30,120 --> 01:48:32,400 And I just don't. I have such a hard time seeing 2295 01:48:32,560 --> 01:48:34,600 Woody Marks go. Look at Woody Marks's game log. 2296 01:48:34,600 --> 01:48:37,960 He hasn't scored more than like 16 PPR points since that one 2297 01:48:37,960 --> 01:48:40,440 game against the Texans when the Texans were quitting on their 2298 01:48:40,440 --> 01:48:41,760 coach and got completely shut out. 2299 01:48:41,760 --> 01:48:45,120 And both of Titans, both of the Titans, both of his touchdowns 2300 01:48:45,120 --> 01:48:46,400 were in the fourth quarter of that game. 2301 01:48:46,600 --> 01:48:49,360 He had 120 point game. Since then has not scored more 2302 01:48:49,360 --> 01:48:52,880 than I think 16 PPR points and has more games like in single 2303 01:48:52,880 --> 01:48:56,000 digits than even in the like 15 to 16 range. 2304 01:48:56,320 --> 01:48:59,960 Ton of really bad games and they're winning every game by 2305 01:48:59,960 --> 01:49:03,360 the way, they're in plus script every week and he still can't 2306 01:49:03,360 --> 01:49:07,080 score 10 PPR points. If you think, by the way that 2307 01:49:07,080 --> 01:49:15,000 Houston D or Fairbairn is a jam, you're like, and and you're 2308 01:49:15,000 --> 01:49:16,800 right, like that could be a a move. 2309 01:49:16,800 --> 01:49:18,960 I don't I think they split. I think they cannibalize each 2310 01:49:18,960 --> 01:49:21,640 other because some people are just going to love Fairbairn and 2311 01:49:21,640 --> 01:49:25,640 some people are going to love Houston D They're both like 2312 01:49:25,640 --> 01:49:28,440 pretty strong ways to get a lot of points at that position. 2313 01:49:28,440 --> 01:49:32,200 Of course I have Houston at 34% total fade. 2314 01:49:32,520 --> 01:49:36,960 That's really high for a team that that has 18% chance to get 2315 01:49:36,960 --> 01:49:40,040 to the Super Bowl. That is higher than Buffalo. 2316 01:49:40,520 --> 01:49:43,120 That's higher than Jacksonville by 4%. 2317 01:49:43,440 --> 01:49:46,120 That's just behind the Eagles and the Patriots. 2318 01:49:46,560 --> 01:49:49,440 I I mean Jacksonville, I have getting faded some because you 2319 01:49:49,440 --> 01:49:51,320 know, we talked about with Buffalo and and everything, but 2320 01:49:51,800 --> 01:49:53,640 Houston, I have higher than all of those teams. 2321 01:49:53,640 --> 01:49:56,000 I have them higher than Chicago, who only has a 10% chance to 2322 01:49:56,000 --> 01:49:58,320 make the Super Bowl. I have them almost equal with 2323 01:49:58,320 --> 01:50:01,120 the with the Packers, who only have a 9% chance to make the 2324 01:50:01,120 --> 01:50:03,480 Super Bowl. I think people fade the Texans 2325 01:50:04,520 --> 01:50:07,120 too much. So I mean that would actually be 2326 01:50:07,120 --> 01:50:09,120 an argument for Woody Marks, right. 2327 01:50:09,560 --> 01:50:14,240 But I think Nico isn't too low in the ownership projection as 2328 01:50:14,240 --> 01:50:18,600 Shorty Vegas pick just said, because one, I think people do 2329 01:50:18,600 --> 01:50:20,600 play Schultz. You need to get some tight end. 2330 01:50:20,600 --> 01:50:23,560 It's going to be somewhat spread out and two people fade the 2331 01:50:23,560 --> 01:50:25,440 Texans with the with the defense in Fairburn. 2332 01:50:27,960 --> 01:50:30,840 If Woody Marks is a good play in this tournament and that whole 2333 01:50:30,840 --> 01:50:34,880 rant was for nothing, I'm going to going to be so bad 'cause he 2334 01:50:34,880 --> 01:50:36,800 can like running backs can score points. 2335 01:50:36,800 --> 01:50:38,320 It does like it. It can happen. 2336 01:50:38,320 --> 01:50:42,560 I mean, he is in the Joe Mixon camp where his like I, I sure 2337 01:50:42,560 --> 01:50:44,680 he's saying his expected fantasy points regression. 2338 01:50:44,920 --> 01:50:49,360 The issue is is that there has to be no no model that I know of 2339 01:50:49,360 --> 01:50:52,200 adjust for this, but there has to be some kind of when you fail 2340 01:50:52,200 --> 01:50:54,520 to convert from the 2 yard line, then you fail. 2341 01:50:54,520 --> 01:50:57,760 You don't get another expected. Then you fail to convert again, 2342 01:50:57,920 --> 01:51:00,200 you get all the expected fantasy points. 2343 01:51:00,200 --> 01:51:02,000 There the the other thing is, it's not. 2344 01:51:02,000 --> 01:51:04,600 It's not always regression when you're worse than. 2345 01:51:05,200 --> 01:51:08,640 This is too much Woody talk. Respectfully, he's he's. 2346 01:51:09,400 --> 01:51:12,840 He's a non prospect that's been worse than expected and then 2347 01:51:12,840 --> 01:51:14,400 you're like, well, he's got to be average. 2348 01:51:14,400 --> 01:51:15,560 No, he doesn't have to be average. 2349 01:51:15,760 --> 01:51:19,080 His profile suggests that he's not an average NFL running back. 2350 01:51:19,240 --> 01:51:21,600 In fact, he's meaningfully below average. 2351 01:51:21,840 --> 01:51:27,040 We should have expected below average efficiency from that 2352 01:51:27,040 --> 01:51:29,080 player. And like, it's not yes, what's 2353 01:51:29,080 --> 01:51:32,000 what's regression to what mean? Like, that's what I want to ask, 2354 01:51:32,240 --> 01:51:33,880 not listen. If you want, if you want Woody 2355 01:51:33,880 --> 01:51:36,920 Marks, then draft some gauntlet teams before it closes because 2356 01:51:36,920 --> 01:51:39,000 you can get him. This is why I'm so passionate. 2357 01:51:39,000 --> 01:51:40,280 I promise. I'm going to. 2358 01:51:40,280 --> 01:51:42,120 I I'm, I'm dreading. I think I'm going to have to 2359 01:51:42,120 --> 01:51:44,600 have a conversation with Leone about Marx at some point. 2360 01:51:44,880 --> 01:51:46,480 He's going to want to play him. We're going to he might. 2361 01:51:46,640 --> 01:51:51,040 He might doubt him. Yeah, well, yeah, it's like if 2362 01:51:51,040 --> 01:51:53,120 you're who do we have, if you're specifically betting on the the 2363 01:51:53,120 --> 01:51:55,120 Texans to make the Super Bowl and you've already built a team 2364 01:51:55,120 --> 01:51:56,680 that reflects that with Nico Collins, right. 2365 01:51:56,680 --> 01:51:58,640 And you're going to add Stroud and Schultz and Higgins and 2366 01:51:58,640 --> 01:52:01,280 whatever and the gauntlet, then I think what he marks is pretty 2367 01:52:01,280 --> 01:52:04,760 great because you're that team's going to be in Super Bowl. 2368 01:52:05,080 --> 01:52:09,760 But if yeah, if in this tournament, I don't think he's a 2369 01:52:09,760 --> 01:52:10,920 great play. He's fine. 2370 01:52:11,240 --> 01:52:13,400 I think he's he's probably fine at 5%. 2371 01:52:14,080 --> 01:52:15,880 He's probably fine. Yeah, Anything. 2372 01:52:15,880 --> 01:52:20,080 It's not the worst play in the world, but I just like he, he 2373 01:52:20,080 --> 01:52:22,880 should be a good play and he's not because he doesn't actually 2374 01:52:22,880 --> 01:52:25,600 score any points anyway. The Steelers are, I think 2375 01:52:25,600 --> 01:52:29,160 Boswell's high here, but otherwise seems fun. 2376 01:52:30,680 --> 01:52:33,360 I think it's more hard fade Pittsburgh and Boswell's a 2377 01:52:33,360 --> 01:52:34,400 little high. That's what I think. 2378 01:52:35,160 --> 01:52:38,200 And I, I what you, you have the Texans that are really high fade 2379 01:52:38,200 --> 01:52:41,040 #2 and I was listening to that like way higher than their 2380 01:52:41,040 --> 01:52:44,880 actual percentage. But they aren't a fun offense, 2381 01:52:45,040 --> 01:52:47,520 right? Like, and that does they, 2382 01:52:47,600 --> 01:52:50,360 they're, they're gonna come in lower than their odds to get to 2383 01:52:50,360 --> 01:52:53,640 the Super Bowl simply because people don't like their offense. 2384 01:52:53,640 --> 01:52:56,000 It's just the way that it is. It's not just how this is 2385 01:52:56,040 --> 01:52:58,760 probably how it works for sure. That's certainly part of how it 2386 01:52:58,760 --> 01:53:00,480 works. It's tough because Houston and 2387 01:53:00,480 --> 01:53:02,560 Pittsburgh are both not fun offenses. 2388 01:53:02,560 --> 01:53:04,600 Pittsburgh is an even less fun offense. 2389 01:53:05,080 --> 01:53:08,080 And so we may get the double saw fade and that kind of thing in 2390 01:53:08,080 --> 01:53:10,360 this game. I don't know what dicker is 2391 01:53:10,360 --> 01:53:16,120 that, but up at 5%. Go ahead, The kicker. 2392 01:53:16,120 --> 01:53:17,800 The kicker 5%. Yeah, do. 2393 01:53:18,680 --> 01:53:22,240 You like to undo the chargers. Yeah, cuz we already did the 2394 01:53:22,240 --> 01:53:24,040 bill so we can close out the AFC. 2395 01:53:24,040 --> 01:53:27,760 With the Chargers, let's do it. So let's do that. 2396 01:53:31,960 --> 01:53:35,200 So Hampton, I think you have to throw a wrinkle in because 2397 01:53:35,200 --> 01:53:37,520 there's a real chance that he does not play this weekend. 2398 01:53:37,560 --> 01:53:40,760 And if he doesn't play, I would guess the fade goes up. 2399 01:53:41,040 --> 01:53:43,640 I would also guess the lad Mcconkey. 2400 01:53:43,640 --> 01:53:47,520 And see, I would think, I would think, don't you think one of 2401 01:53:47,520 --> 01:53:49,640 ladder Gadsden, particularly Gadsden. 2402 01:53:50,240 --> 01:53:52,520 Gadsden to me feel like just my gut. 2403 01:53:52,560 --> 01:53:54,160 This I guess. I don't know if you count me as 2404 01:53:54,160 --> 01:53:57,840 a boomer or a slap, but my first instinct was Gadsden could just 2405 01:53:57,840 --> 01:54:02,720 rack up like 8 for 65 in a shit canning by the Chargers. 2406 01:54:02,720 --> 01:54:06,080 Lads coming up from this number, Gadsden's coming up from this 2407 01:54:06,080 --> 01:54:07,800 number. I also think Quentin Johnson's 2408 01:54:07,800 --> 01:54:11,800 catching at least like 2%. All right, this. 2409 01:54:11,800 --> 01:54:14,000 Is 1. I kind of, I got to this and I 2410 01:54:14,000 --> 01:54:15,920 was like, I can't even. There's nothing. 2411 01:54:15,920 --> 01:54:18,080 I mean, there's nothing you can. Do I don't even know what to do 2412 01:54:18,080 --> 01:54:20,760 because either Hampton's way too low or Hampton's way too high. 2413 01:54:21,880 --> 01:54:24,640 But yeah, let's I think Hampton's got to come down with 2414 01:54:24,640 --> 01:54:27,600 the injury to like 28, Johnson up to like 2. 2415 01:54:27,600 --> 01:54:30,160 Mcconkey's got to go up or maybe even lower. 2416 01:54:30,160 --> 01:54:33,720 Yeah, 25 if he can go that far. But I think Johnson's, yeah, 2417 01:54:34,040 --> 01:54:36,640 Keenan, maybe it's too high at 4. 2418 01:54:36,640 --> 01:54:38,240 Maybe he's 3. Like he's not. 2419 01:54:38,240 --> 01:54:40,000 I think so. I think Keenan's actually semi 2420 01:54:40,000 --> 01:54:41,400 company. Yeah. 2421 01:54:43,920 --> 01:54:47,680 But that looks better. What is what is the chat saying 2422 01:54:47,680 --> 01:54:50,840 here? LAD 4%, but I don't know which 2423 01:54:50,840 --> 01:54:53,000 direction. Yeah, I that's I was going to 2424 01:54:53,000 --> 01:54:55,080 ask, what does that mean? QJ Zero. 2425 01:54:55,400 --> 01:54:57,800 We got that. Oh yeah, he's saying the other 2426 01:54:57,800 --> 01:54:59,920 direction. LAD 4, Macmillan 10, DK 10. 2427 01:54:59,960 --> 01:55:08,040 I mean, yeah, there's like Mr. Brad here says, I like QJ, most 2428 01:55:08,040 --> 01:55:13,720 of the flex guys. What if QJ finishes the season 2429 01:55:13,720 --> 01:55:17,360 like he started? I mean, I think Quinton Johnson 2430 01:55:17,360 --> 01:55:21,320 has the highest ceiling, Gadson's the TD equity, Laddas 2431 01:55:21,320 --> 01:55:24,800 Laster's game in people's mind. Keelan feels like dust. 2432 01:55:24,800 --> 01:55:26,400 I think people think Keenan's dust. 2433 01:55:26,960 --> 01:55:28,480 But. For sure, yeah. 2434 01:55:28,520 --> 01:55:31,600 Keenan's 01 Keenan Keenan like nothing. 2435 01:55:31,720 --> 01:55:33,880 I'm taking the over on 01 on Keenan guys. 2436 01:55:34,640 --> 01:55:36,360 OK, got to remember who we're dealing with. 2437 01:55:37,520 --> 01:55:40,640 I'm taking the over on 01 touted on some podcast I've heard. 2438 01:55:40,640 --> 01:55:43,000 Keenan touted I've I've heard. Dude, dude, I. 2439 01:55:44,240 --> 01:55:48,000 I'm here to get his incentives. They had incentives in Week 18 2440 01:55:48,080 --> 01:55:50,400 that they that they, they said they should have paid him the 2441 01:55:50,400 --> 01:55:53,040 money, you know, rather than risking his health because he's 2442 01:55:53,040 --> 01:55:54,880 risking his health because he's their best receiver. 2443 01:55:55,520 --> 01:55:57,280 Yeah. I think he'll get played. 2444 01:55:57,640 --> 01:56:00,400 He is their TD guy. I mean, he's their Devante Adams 2445 01:56:00,480 --> 01:56:04,680 in a minor way. Yeah, not like plate a ton. 2446 01:56:04,680 --> 01:56:07,200 But I, I don't think that people are just going to X out Keenan. 2447 01:56:07,840 --> 01:56:10,280 Keenan needs 12 targets to get 60 yards. 2448 01:56:12,120 --> 01:56:15,920 We are not the people that drafted Keenan, right. 2449 01:56:16,040 --> 01:56:17,400 How much Keenan do you have in basketball? 2450 01:56:17,400 --> 01:56:23,960 I don't have very much. I don't I don't trust my yeah, 2451 01:56:23,960 --> 01:56:27,320 my desire to put Keenan at at one is I think is is incorrect 2452 01:56:27,320 --> 01:56:29,240 for projecting what the field will be. 2453 01:56:29,680 --> 01:56:31,640 This is it. This is an incredibly tough one. 2454 01:56:31,640 --> 01:56:33,600 I mean, even just looking at the chats, they have a lot of 2455 01:56:33,600 --> 01:56:37,720 different opinions, a lot of whatever it seems like everyone 2456 01:56:37,720 --> 01:56:42,960 likes somebody at a certain number like they're if if you're 2457 01:56:42,960 --> 01:56:45,520 inclined to like, you know, quit Johnston, you're going to like 2458 01:56:45,520 --> 01:56:47,000 him at 2%. Gatson, you're going to like him 2459 01:56:47,000 --> 01:56:49,240 at 4% lad, you're going to like him. 2460 01:56:49,560 --> 01:56:50,880 You've bumped a lot all the way to 8 now. 2461 01:56:50,880 --> 01:56:53,760 He was at 4. But I think I've seen all the 2462 01:56:53,760 --> 01:56:56,000 different comments that have been like, oh, that guy's too 2463 01:56:56,000 --> 01:56:58,120 low, That guy's too low, That guy's too low, which tells you 2464 01:56:58,120 --> 01:57:00,360 that it is going to be spread like people, people have their 2465 01:57:00,360 --> 01:57:03,720 preference in this spot. And you're, you're saying people 2466 01:57:03,720 --> 01:57:06,400 like Keenan boomers do not swear by 4 points per game. 2467 01:57:06,440 --> 01:57:10,840 They they swear by targets. And and do they, Yeah, they 2468 01:57:10,840 --> 01:57:12,600 sort, they sort by target. Targets is no. 2469 01:57:12,720 --> 01:57:15,280 I feel like, I feel like that is not what boomers do. 2470 01:57:15,800 --> 01:57:17,440 No, it's targets. Targets. 2471 01:57:17,440 --> 01:57:20,520 They love targets. Look at crack rock, the PPR. 2472 01:57:20,600 --> 01:57:22,160 That's all. Even crack rock loves target. 2473 01:57:22,160 --> 01:57:23,400 It's true. This is, this is our. 2474 01:57:23,560 --> 01:57:27,240 This is our. I would need I would need 5000 2475 01:57:27,240 --> 01:57:30,560 like JMCI would need 5000 lineups before I got to a 2476 01:57:30,560 --> 01:57:35,360 Herbert. 5000. I just think they're so they're 2477 01:57:35,360 --> 01:57:38,160 so dead in this game and it's not even honestly, it's not even 2478 01:57:38,160 --> 01:57:39,960 Justin Herbert's fault. It's just like they have no 2479 01:57:39,960 --> 01:57:41,560 offensive line. They they have guys. 2480 01:57:41,880 --> 01:57:44,320 Targets aren't you have to be safe talking fair. 2481 01:57:44,920 --> 01:57:46,640 There's other sites they sort on all right. 2482 01:57:46,760 --> 01:57:49,200 They just have dudes coming off the freaking streets. 2483 01:57:49,200 --> 01:57:51,960 I do like 1%, Herbert. There you go. 2484 01:57:52,480 --> 01:57:53,840 There you go. There's your 1%. 2485 01:57:54,640 --> 01:57:59,600 Yeah. What would you do you guys like? 2486 01:58:00,360 --> 01:58:05,200 I think, I think Hampton honestly might be the might be 2487 01:58:05,200 --> 01:58:08,320 the Acres play. Oh, I like it. 2488 01:58:08,800 --> 01:58:12,480 He does patriots. The thing is is he gets the PPR 2489 01:58:12,480 --> 01:58:15,960 scam. I like it. 2490 01:58:17,760 --> 01:58:21,560 Well, but Acres was like 10%. What made what made the Acres 2491 01:58:21,560 --> 01:58:23,320 play is he was like 10%. Yeah, well, everyone's yelling 2492 01:58:23,320 --> 01:58:26,160 at me at 25% is too high. And they might be right in part 2493 01:58:26,160 --> 01:58:29,280 'cause he didn't practice. Also, Acres and the Rams won 2494 01:58:29,280 --> 01:58:31,560 you. You're picking Hampton, you're 2495 01:58:31,560 --> 01:58:32,760 picking the Chargers to upset the pitch. 2496 01:58:32,760 --> 01:58:34,280 The Chargers are live to win this game. 2497 01:58:34,280 --> 01:58:37,760 Like I, I'm obviously I, our portfolio won't reflect the 2498 01:58:37,760 --> 01:58:39,800 Chargers winning this game, you know, a ton. 2499 01:58:39,800 --> 01:58:43,000 But like in certain line UPS, I want to consider that the 2500 01:58:43,000 --> 01:58:44,560 Chargers beat the Patriots for sure. 2501 01:58:44,560 --> 01:58:47,120 Yeah. I didn't. 2502 01:58:47,120 --> 01:58:49,360 Quit Johnson's a really good play at 2%. 2503 01:58:50,280 --> 01:58:55,920 I'll make him 3 then. I mean, he's just he's the type 2504 01:58:55,920 --> 01:58:58,080 of guy that if you're playing him in a loss, you're like, 2505 01:58:58,080 --> 01:58:59,680 well, he's the one that caught the long TD. 2506 01:58:59,680 --> 01:59:02,120 So he's I like you. Keep up being lad. 2507 01:59:02,120 --> 01:59:04,240 I don't who wants to play lad Mcconkey this year? 2508 01:59:04,320 --> 01:59:08,920 He's been dog shit. He's been bad for a second. 2509 01:59:09,000 --> 01:59:10,640 I was thinking I was on steel penis lab. 2510 01:59:10,800 --> 01:59:12,040 I mean, you're you're probably right. 2511 01:59:12,080 --> 01:59:13,320 I I don't know. I'm trying to figure out where 2512 01:59:13,320 --> 01:59:16,040 to put this Hampton ownership. That's going to go somewhere, I 2513 01:59:16,040 --> 01:59:18,080 guess somewhere to go to the it'll go to the kicker. 2514 01:59:18,480 --> 01:59:20,440 It'll go to fade. It might go to fade. 2515 01:59:20,440 --> 01:59:24,160 It might go to QJ, just like I don't know. 2516 01:59:24,840 --> 01:59:27,760 I would have him closer to lad. You you when when you bumped QJ, 2517 01:59:27,760 --> 01:59:30,480 you bumped lad by even more and like I'm trying to get those 2518 01:59:30,480 --> 01:59:33,240 guys closer and you're like the the gap is widening. 2519 01:59:35,120 --> 01:59:36,560 But that's the only reason I brought up lad. 2520 01:59:36,560 --> 01:59:38,640 That was what I was thinking. Yeah. 2521 01:59:38,720 --> 01:59:41,680 No, that's that's fair. I'm going to do. 2522 01:59:41,680 --> 01:59:42,920 I'm going to leave it like this for now. 2523 01:59:45,440 --> 01:59:47,040 QJ over LAD. Higher ceiling. 2524 01:59:47,040 --> 01:59:49,000 Gretch is right about QJ. Yeah. 2525 01:59:49,000 --> 01:59:52,600 All right, I'll. I'll bring LAD down and bring. 2526 01:59:52,640 --> 01:59:56,840 LAD has not gotten more than 50 receiving yards since Week 10. 2527 01:59:57,160 --> 01:59:59,280 That's so gnarly. Yeah. 2528 01:59:59,920 --> 02:00:05,400 That's crazy, yeah. Yeah. 133912. 20 There's, 2529 02:00:05,440 --> 02:00:07,600 there's how we got, there's how we got more dicker. 2530 02:00:07,920 --> 02:00:09,200 There's how we got more dicker. Oh. 2531 02:00:09,920 --> 02:00:15,880 God, this is so great. Oh, this game log, dude. 2532 02:00:16,000 --> 02:00:18,920 And Quinn Johnson just caught a long TD like the other week, 2533 02:00:18,920 --> 02:00:21,720 right? I mean, most of it was earlier 2534 02:00:21,720 --> 02:00:23,360 in the year, but didn't he have something? 2535 02:00:25,360 --> 02:00:26,720 Yeah, stick with the kicker, man. 2536 02:00:26,960 --> 02:00:31,040 It's happening. Johnston has one O 4 and 98 in 2537 02:00:31,040 --> 02:00:34,640 his last two games. He's got more points, more yards 2538 02:00:34,640 --> 02:00:37,320 in his last two games than Mcconkey's got in two months. 2539 02:00:39,320 --> 02:00:44,640 Yeah, K does. FFPCFFPC doesn't have easily 2540 02:00:44,640 --> 02:00:48,720 checkable game logs, right? Like it's, if this was on 2541 02:00:48,720 --> 02:00:50,800 DraftKings and you could just click on the name and get the 2542 02:00:50,800 --> 02:00:54,000 game log, but you can't do that. So I, I, I'm on, I'm on board 2543 02:00:54,000 --> 02:00:59,880 with the, I mean, 5% Keenan is still still a bit high, but oh, 2544 02:00:59,880 --> 02:01:02,040 OK. FFPC does easily and, and it 2545 02:01:02,040 --> 02:01:04,480 does have targets. According to Mac Nova, the FFPC 2546 02:01:04,480 --> 02:01:06,160 game log does have targets. Nice. 2547 02:01:06,920 --> 02:01:07,760 OK. All right. 2548 02:01:08,760 --> 02:01:09,880 All right. What? 2549 02:01:09,880 --> 02:01:15,520 Who else do we have in the NFC? Over on the NFC side, we did 2550 02:01:15,520 --> 02:01:17,040 Carolina. We haven't done Green Bay yet. 2551 02:01:17,280 --> 02:01:19,120 Green Bay, I think. Green Bay's A. 2552 02:01:19,120 --> 02:01:21,200 Crazy and and San Francisco. We still need to do San. 2553 02:01:21,240 --> 02:01:23,000 Let's do San Francisco first. Yeah. 2554 02:01:24,080 --> 02:01:29,240 That should be pretty quick. Man, it just feels like so I I 2555 02:01:29,440 --> 02:01:33,480 Karina, I think you're right. The only thing is, is with tight 2556 02:01:33,480 --> 02:01:36,080 end being just so. Right. 2557 02:01:36,640 --> 02:01:39,800 Nah. Do we see a little bit of extra 2558 02:01:39,800 --> 02:01:43,040 portioning from CMC to Kittle than we would in a normal year 2559 02:01:43,040 --> 02:01:45,600 for them? It's a good question. 2560 02:01:45,640 --> 02:01:48,480 I was thinking no. And then as soon as you've 2561 02:01:48,520 --> 02:01:50,600 pulled that up, I was like, I want to play George Kittle at 2562 02:01:50,600 --> 02:01:52,960 that number. They're 4 1/2 point dogs. 2563 02:01:53,280 --> 02:01:55,960 And and even if McCaffrey outscores Kittle, he can be the 2564 02:01:56,040 --> 02:01:59,000 the tight end for all the reasons we talked about. 2565 02:01:59,000 --> 02:02:01,000 McCaffrey has a 20 point game, Kittle 15. 2566 02:02:01,000 --> 02:02:03,440 They lose. Kittle's probably the tight end, 2567 02:02:03,440 --> 02:02:05,520 Mccaffrey's probably not the running back of that number, 2568 02:02:07,440 --> 02:02:13,760 right. So in a loss, I think people are 2569 02:02:13,760 --> 02:02:16,440 just going to be very, very happy with McCaffrey. 2570 02:02:17,960 --> 02:02:20,760 Just be happy to have McCaffrey. It's like a ton of balls. 2571 02:02:20,760 --> 02:02:22,680 They're in a lot like Kenny Gainwell in a loss. 2572 02:02:22,680 --> 02:02:26,320 But you can. But it's McCaffrey and I think 2573 02:02:26,320 --> 02:02:30,480 you can figure out tight end. I think very most lineups are 2574 02:02:30,480 --> 02:02:32,400 not going to play 2 tight ends. Most lineups are going to play 2575 02:02:32,400 --> 02:02:35,440 one tight end. So you're going to go, OK, I can 2576 02:02:35,440 --> 02:02:40,320 go get Colton Loveland, Dalton Schultz, Brenton Strange, Dallas 2577 02:02:40,320 --> 02:02:43,800 Goddard, Hunter Henry. One of those tight ends is 2578 02:02:43,800 --> 02:02:48,360 probably going to feel better than not playing McCaffrey and 2579 02:02:48,360 --> 02:02:53,040 playing George Kittle. I took most people, you know. 2580 02:02:53,800 --> 02:02:57,280 Yeah, that's why I think I think McCaffrey comes in very, very 2581 02:02:57,280 --> 02:03:03,440 high because of the yeah, Kittle is the hot play, actually Shorty 2582 02:03:03,440 --> 02:03:06,240 base pick. That's that's a good call. 2583 02:03:06,240 --> 02:03:07,680 That's right. Would you agree, Ben? 2584 02:03:09,480 --> 02:03:10,640 Yeah, no, I think he's a great play. 2585 02:03:10,640 --> 02:03:13,080 I think he's a good play. He's like the Hawkinson 2586 02:03:13,080 --> 02:03:16,960 Jefferson play, right, 'cause in in a loss, McCaffrey could have 2587 02:03:16,960 --> 02:03:19,040 a bad game. He could have some type of like 2588 02:03:19,040 --> 02:03:22,480 tweaked injury or something. We know he has some kind of like 2589 02:03:22,480 --> 02:03:27,080 soft tissue issues occasionally. They could just get like really 2590 02:03:27,320 --> 02:03:30,440 like fixated defensively could could really fixate on 2591 02:03:30,440 --> 02:03:32,880 McCaffrey, whatever. There's a lot of ways that like 2592 02:03:32,880 --> 02:03:36,360 if San Fran's offense doesn't go well, it's because they're not 2593 02:03:36,360 --> 02:03:39,120 able to get McCaffrey going. And then it also benefits 2594 02:03:39,120 --> 02:03:40,240 Kittle. And then you get, that's what 2595 02:03:40,240 --> 02:03:42,880 happened when with the Vikings last year, Jefferson was having 2596 02:03:42,880 --> 02:03:45,600 a great year, but they the Rams just took Jefferson away 2597 02:03:45,600 --> 02:03:47,840 basically. And as a result, the only thing 2598 02:03:47,840 --> 02:03:49,880 they could get going was a little bit of Hawkinson over 2599 02:03:49,880 --> 02:03:51,280 here and he ends up catching ATD. 2600 02:03:51,400 --> 02:03:53,760 They had, they both had like 5 catches, but Hawkinson got the 2601 02:03:53,760 --> 02:03:55,680 TD and he ends up being the obvious. 2602 02:03:55,680 --> 02:03:57,800 I mean, Kittle's a really nice pivot. 2603 02:03:57,800 --> 02:04:00,680 If McCaffrey has a bad game, it's possible McCaffrey could 2604 02:04:00,680 --> 02:04:03,560 have a bad game. By the way, Jefferson that year 2605 02:04:05,320 --> 02:04:08,160 was was a smash, had a smash season, much like McCaffrey just 2606 02:04:08,160 --> 02:04:11,400 did for fantasy. I had them projected 69% came in 2607 02:04:11,400 --> 02:04:14,360 78%. So I don't I don't know. 2608 02:04:14,440 --> 02:04:16,480 I mean, McCaffrey and Jefferson, I was saying are exactly the 2609 02:04:16,480 --> 02:04:19,840 same situation. But this type of play like 2610 02:04:19,840 --> 02:04:21,800 that's this comfy tends to just get played. 2611 02:04:23,880 --> 02:04:26,360 Kittle's probably a better pivot than Hawk, who I had projected 2612 02:04:26,360 --> 02:04:29,440 at 5 and came in at 5. People just faded that game. 2613 02:04:29,440 --> 02:04:31,720 I don't think people there's there's been some stuff like, 2614 02:04:31,720 --> 02:04:33,280 oh, you, you just fade this game. 2615 02:04:34,080 --> 02:04:36,160 OK. You know, you fade this game 2616 02:04:37,240 --> 02:04:39,520 when you come back around and you're about to put Ted McMillan 2617 02:04:39,520 --> 02:04:41,280 in. I think you, I think you play 2618 02:04:41,280 --> 02:04:44,240 CMC or Kettle. So I think a lot of people are 2619 02:04:44,240 --> 02:04:46,280 going to start with the idea they fade in this game and 2620 02:04:46,280 --> 02:04:49,000 they're not going to do it because it's going to be it's 2621 02:04:49,000 --> 02:04:51,960 going to be a much more uncomfortable lineup when you're 2622 02:04:51,960 --> 02:04:56,120 literally just not playing CMC, who obviously can like crush in 2623 02:04:56,120 --> 02:04:58,520 a loss like that. He absolutely can do that. 2624 02:04:58,560 --> 02:05:01,960 You know, this is this is our audience that tends to think 2625 02:05:01,960 --> 02:05:05,560 pivot. Draco says Kittle Omega smash at 2626 02:05:06,400 --> 02:05:10,040 at 14%. We had no Kittle, no money. 2627 02:05:10,480 --> 02:05:13,560 Kittle is a huge smash here. Obviously Shorty was saying it's 2628 02:05:13,560 --> 02:05:16,800 the Ferguson and Hawk play. There's a lot of people looking 2629 02:05:16,800 --> 02:05:20,080 at this saying you have to play Kittle at this number. 2630 02:05:20,080 --> 02:05:22,760 Does that mean that he comes in higher from that perspective? 2631 02:05:25,720 --> 02:05:26,880 I mean, you just were explaining. 2632 02:05:27,400 --> 02:05:29,960 I don't I, I mean, this is 1 I feel pretty good about to be 2633 02:05:29,960 --> 02:05:31,400 honest. I it's not that I don't think 2634 02:05:31,400 --> 02:05:33,040 Kittle's a good play. I think he's a really good play. 2635 02:05:36,160 --> 02:05:39,520 I think CMC is going to be like you look at like, you know, 2636 02:05:39,520 --> 02:05:43,000 playoff projections and stuff seem and you look at where you 2637 02:05:43,000 --> 02:05:44,960 know, CMC's going at like the one O 2 and the gauntlet. 2638 02:05:44,960 --> 02:05:46,920 I'll tell you where, I'll tell you where some Kittle comes 2639 02:05:46,920 --> 02:05:48,440 from. And we've been, we've been 2640 02:05:48,440 --> 02:05:49,960 wanting to know which KBS to bring down. 2641 02:05:50,320 --> 02:05:52,240 Purdy 4% when they're 4 1/2 point dogs. 2642 02:05:52,240 --> 02:05:54,240 No one thinks the Niners are making that long of a run. 2643 02:05:54,240 --> 02:05:55,760 And even if they do, they want to play McCaffrey. 2644 02:05:55,760 --> 02:05:59,160 How does he get 4% Purdy's 2% Purdy. 2645 02:06:00,760 --> 02:06:02,280 No one thinks the Niners are making a run. 2646 02:06:02,280 --> 02:06:04,680 They're big dogs. I wonder, I wonder if you see, I 2647 02:06:04,680 --> 02:06:08,680 was going to say, I wonder if you see fade or kicker come up a 2648 02:06:08,680 --> 02:06:11,640 little bit. That might be possible. 2649 02:06:11,640 --> 02:06:16,400 Maybe 2% from Purdy goes there. I don't think Purdy's even a 2% 2650 02:06:16,400 --> 02:06:18,240 QB, honestly. He scored a lot down the 2651 02:06:18,240 --> 02:06:19,800 stretch. He was a fantasy playoff hero. 2652 02:06:19,800 --> 02:06:22,480 But you people want to play McCaffrey or they want to play 2653 02:06:22,480 --> 02:06:25,720 Kittle and it's so and and then also they want to play QB who's 2654 02:06:25,720 --> 02:06:27,360 making a run. And this is not a team that 2655 02:06:27,360 --> 02:06:28,680 looks like they're going to make a long run. 2656 02:06:28,680 --> 02:06:32,360 They have a really low percent chance of winning the NFC based 2657 02:06:32,360 --> 02:06:36,240 on the odds. Who's getting Kittle 24%? 2658 02:06:36,240 --> 02:06:38,320 I would like take, which is the comment we had here. 2659 02:06:38,320 --> 02:06:40,000 I would take like hard, hard under. 2660 02:06:40,520 --> 02:06:41,760 I just don't think people get there. 2661 02:06:42,040 --> 02:06:45,080 No, yeah, that's the same. Seasons is never under, is never 2662 02:06:45,080 --> 02:06:48,880 under 70. Yeah, yeah. 2663 02:06:49,080 --> 02:06:53,840 I think party might be a 1%, but 2% I, I think, I think, I don't 2664 02:06:53,840 --> 02:06:55,040 know, I think there's enough people. 2665 02:06:56,040 --> 02:06:59,880 I mean, he's, he's scored really well and you know, it's 2666 02:06:59,880 --> 02:07:04,200 possible. So is it possible in the Super 2667 02:07:04,200 --> 02:07:06,880 Bowl? Is is enticing. 2668 02:07:07,360 --> 02:07:09,680 Wouldn't you just play McCaffrey if you were if you were taking 2669 02:07:09,680 --> 02:07:11,240 them? They're 4 1/2 point favorites. 2670 02:07:11,240 --> 02:07:14,040 They're one of the bigger underdogs this weekend. 2671 02:07:14,040 --> 02:07:15,360 They're the second biggest underdog. 2672 02:07:15,920 --> 02:07:18,520 So it's, I mean, it's possible to make a run, but if you're 2673 02:07:18,520 --> 02:07:20,840 like, well, it's not likely they make a run. 2674 02:07:20,840 --> 02:07:24,640 And even if they do, I just want McCaffrey or it gives me more 2675 02:07:24,640 --> 02:07:26,200 outs. Like people love their outs. 2676 02:07:26,200 --> 02:07:28,680 You know, the Niners have the same odds to win the Super Bowl 2677 02:07:28,680 --> 02:07:32,640 as the Chargers. The only team two years, two 2678 02:07:32,640 --> 02:07:37,560 years ago, I had him at at 2% because he wasn't, I didn't 2679 02:07:37,560 --> 02:07:40,400 think he was a very good play. He came in at 5:00. 2680 02:07:41,320 --> 02:07:47,400 So that was with obviously CMC and Kittle and and Debo and Debo 2681 02:07:47,600 --> 02:07:51,960 you get was more spread and there's more spread. 2682 02:07:51,960 --> 02:07:55,800 But I mean, I think that's yeah, let me see, let me see where 2683 02:07:56,080 --> 02:08:00,560 McCaffrey came in that year. What was McCaffrey was at 79% 2684 02:08:00,560 --> 02:08:06,720 that year 2020? That was the 2020, the three 2685 02:08:06,720 --> 02:08:13,520 season. Yeah. 2023-2024 NFL playoffs on 2686 02:08:13,520 --> 02:08:14,840 Wikipedia. What was their? 2687 02:08:14,840 --> 02:08:16,520 Kittle was barely played that season. 2688 02:08:16,640 --> 02:08:18,400 People people. He was at 3%. 2689 02:08:18,560 --> 02:08:20,640 They were the number one seed. Dude. 2690 02:08:20,680 --> 02:08:23,160 They had a buy. They were and they went to the 2691 02:08:23,160 --> 02:08:24,560 Super Bowl. They were likely to go to the 2692 02:08:24,560 --> 02:08:27,680 Super Bowl. I mean, I think that's a way 2693 02:08:27,680 --> 02:08:30,120 different thing than being 4 1/2 point underdogs on the road 2694 02:08:30,120 --> 02:08:32,000 against the defending champs. I. 2695 02:08:32,280 --> 02:08:33,600 Mean it. It obviously is less. 2696 02:08:33,600 --> 02:08:39,120 Likely to play CMC though. Like I feel like as a dog you 2697 02:08:39,120 --> 02:08:41,520 almost want CMC more because you're like all right well I 2698 02:08:41,520 --> 02:08:44,520 just get 27 PPR scam points and then they're done. 2699 02:08:45,720 --> 02:08:48,080 The more likely. I'll get pretty 1 and Kittle to 2700 02:08:48,080 --> 02:08:50,880 18. Yeah, I, I, I think, I think 2701 02:08:50,880 --> 02:08:53,240 that Gretch is, is accurate there. 2702 02:08:54,080 --> 02:08:59,320 I think this is a good point from our Guy Fuller here, but I 2703 02:08:59,320 --> 02:09:02,280 would say that in any other contest, but in this contest, 2704 02:09:02,280 --> 02:09:06,240 when you can only take 1 Niner and it's you want McCaffrey and 2705 02:09:06,240 --> 02:09:09,200 if you don't have McCaffrey, you really want like we're having a 2706 02:09:09,200 --> 02:09:11,080 hard time. We everyone in the chat wants us 2707 02:09:11,080 --> 02:09:14,000 to get higher on Kittle, but we can't because of McCaffrey. 2708 02:09:14,400 --> 02:09:16,240 Who the Hell's playing Purdy? You know what I mean? 2709 02:09:16,240 --> 02:09:18,360 Like that's it's just because you can only play 1 Niner. 2710 02:09:18,560 --> 02:09:21,840 I do think because he won people their championships, that in 2711 02:09:21,840 --> 02:09:24,160 other contests like it, he gets bumped for sure. 2712 02:09:24,160 --> 02:09:27,640 But in this contest, there's so much constraint on the Niners. 2713 02:09:27,800 --> 02:09:29,360 That's also why I think you're right about the fade. 2714 02:09:29,360 --> 02:09:30,800 Some of the chat was saying you should bump fade. 2715 02:09:31,040 --> 02:09:32,400 I don't think they're gonna fade the Niners. 2716 02:09:32,400 --> 02:09:34,560 Even when they play the Niners, man, they're gonna play 2717 02:09:34,560 --> 02:09:36,640 McCaffrey or they're gonna fill tight end with Kittle. 2718 02:09:36,760 --> 02:09:38,960 That's the pivot. You don't fade both McCaffrey 2719 02:09:38,960 --> 02:09:40,760 and Kittle to full fade the Niners. 2720 02:09:40,760 --> 02:09:42,080 Why would you do it? I don't. 2721 02:09:42,080 --> 02:09:45,680 Think well 'cause. You would if, if McCaffrey and 2722 02:09:45,680 --> 02:09:48,880 Kittle were gonna be close and they were kind of you're, you're 2723 02:09:48,880 --> 02:09:51,440 fading 2 chalk pieces, but they're not gonna be close, 2724 02:09:52,000 --> 02:09:53,880 right? People think Kittle's this 2725 02:09:53,880 --> 02:09:56,720 really great leverage play that you don't have to like, I even 2726 02:09:56,720 --> 02:09:59,520 think Jennings at 2% is, I mean, I'm not going to tell you to 2727 02:09:59,520 --> 02:10:03,560 take all the riff raff out here. You got 4% on the kicker. 2728 02:10:03,800 --> 02:10:06,040 And I think McCaffrey, Kittle, they're not going to come in at 2729 02:10:06,040 --> 02:10:09,400 100%, but they're going to be in a lot of freaking lineups. 2730 02:10:09,400 --> 02:10:10,720 You've got to have a lot of lineups. 2731 02:10:11,280 --> 02:10:13,760 And and this is a this is a contest where you kind of have 2732 02:10:13,760 --> 02:10:17,640 like you have license to to play, to not fade the 49ers 2733 02:10:18,080 --> 02:10:19,600 because you can just play Kittle. 2734 02:10:19,960 --> 02:10:23,680 And maybe I'm a little low here, but again, I would take the 2735 02:10:23,680 --> 02:10:28,760 under on like 2425% on Kittle because people are just going to 2736 02:10:28,760 --> 02:10:30,200 I want to play McCabe. I would play. 2737 02:10:30,280 --> 02:10:31,960 It's so hard to come off McCaffrey. 2738 02:10:31,960 --> 02:10:35,520 I don't think he's a bad player. It is so definitely. 2739 02:10:35,920 --> 02:10:38,560 Definitely not. And even if you come off 2740 02:10:38,560 --> 02:10:42,440 McCaffrey, like the only reason you're doing it is because, like 2741 02:10:42,480 --> 02:10:46,040 the tight end position's so hard and then Kittle becomes the if 2742 02:10:46,040 --> 02:10:48,800 you're off McCaffrey, Kittle becomes the Loctite end play, 2743 02:10:48,800 --> 02:10:50,480 does he not? Like it's so hard to come off 2744 02:10:50,480 --> 02:10:54,400 McCaffrey and then also come off Kittle to anything else? 2745 02:10:54,800 --> 02:10:56,760 I mean, maybe that's like Loveland. 2746 02:10:56,800 --> 02:10:58,800 Yeah. Jewish McCaffrey saying Loveland 2747 02:10:58,960 --> 02:11:01,320 is is much easier with the opportunity cost, which I agree 2748 02:11:01,320 --> 02:11:02,960 with. Why you're going to see Loveland 2749 02:11:02,960 --> 02:11:06,920 a lot higher. But it's you know, if you are 2750 02:11:06,920 --> 02:11:09,600 fading the Bears, you know, that's a spot where you can play 2751 02:11:09,600 --> 02:11:14,000 who's your our our comment is coming from Jewish McCaffrey. 2752 02:11:14,000 --> 02:11:16,600 It's the opportunity cost. I just I got to play McCaffrey 2753 02:11:16,600 --> 02:11:19,240 like this is his picture is Christian McCaffrey. 2754 02:11:22,160 --> 02:11:23,960 Yeah, very fair. I just got to pay I. 2755 02:11:23,960 --> 02:11:25,040 Just got to play that guy there's. 2756 02:11:25,560 --> 02:11:32,360 Nothing I can do, yeah. All right, so final team Packers 2757 02:11:34,160 --> 02:11:36,680 someone asked artillery Frost asked if these, you know, 2758 02:11:36,680 --> 02:11:41,960 quarterback and and kicker and defense some to you know some to 2759 02:11:41,960 --> 02:11:45,280 100% yes, well, they did I've been I've been tinkering. 2760 02:11:45,600 --> 02:11:50,520 So they they will later tonight. You usually pull up by position 2761 02:11:50,520 --> 02:11:53,120 really quick at the end so we can kind of see the relative 2762 02:11:53,200 --> 02:11:56,280 like chalk and stuff. I'll try to I'll try to find 2763 02:11:56,280 --> 02:11:59,440 homes for for things that have gotten a little out of whack 2764 02:11:59,840 --> 02:12:02,240 before we do that. But yeah, all right, this is a 2765 02:12:02,240 --> 02:12:08,440 big one, big, big one for, you know, projections driven stuff 2766 02:12:08,440 --> 02:12:15,000 versus, you know, feel because the feel on the Packers feels 2767 02:12:15,000 --> 02:12:19,920 like Watson, people like Watson. I like Watson. 2768 02:12:20,680 --> 02:12:22,680 Watson's fun. He's looked awesome. 2769 02:12:23,040 --> 02:12:24,760 He's kind of getting better, like week by week. 2770 02:12:24,760 --> 02:12:27,760 It feels like you think he you think he's in a bad matchup, He 2771 02:12:27,760 --> 02:12:30,400 goes nuts, right? We we, we bench him in a league 2772 02:12:30,440 --> 02:12:31,880 on the Saturday game, he goes nuts. 2773 02:12:31,880 --> 02:12:36,480 Like Watson's been awesome and really defied expectations 2774 02:12:36,480 --> 02:12:39,360 coming back from this injury. He's a deep threat. 2775 02:12:39,720 --> 02:12:44,120 He draws targets. He's fun in a loss because you 2776 02:12:44,120 --> 02:12:47,560 know he can hit, you can get there, you know when and the 2777 02:12:47,560 --> 02:12:50,080 Packers are actually a very fun team when you when you push them 2778 02:12:50,080 --> 02:12:52,560 and they actually have to pass because they don't really want 2779 02:12:52,560 --> 02:12:55,040 to pass. But if they they get pushed, he 2780 02:12:55,040 --> 02:12:56,960 goes nuts in a loss, you move on. 2781 02:12:57,360 --> 02:13:01,360 It's like a very easy play to see yourself banking a bunch of 2782 02:13:01,360 --> 02:13:03,720 points, which is obviously what you want to do. 2783 02:13:03,720 --> 02:13:08,080 You're going to lose 2. Two teams will lose from from 2784 02:13:08,080 --> 02:13:10,480 players that you that you have skill players on. 2785 02:13:11,480 --> 02:13:13,800 And so he's a a fun one to bank and move on. 2786 02:13:14,320 --> 02:13:16,440 Josh Jacobs, though, is going to project better. 2787 02:13:18,240 --> 02:13:21,480 And so I've just been struggling to, I mean, I had Jacobs quite a 2788 02:13:21,480 --> 02:13:24,920 bit higher than Watson at first, but it feels like sentiment on 2789 02:13:24,920 --> 02:13:27,640 Watson is really strong. So that's why you started that 2790 02:13:27,640 --> 02:13:29,360 You're explaining why you have Watson so high. 2791 02:13:29,360 --> 02:13:33,600 The chats initial feel is the same like you get Jacobs up 2792 02:13:33,600 --> 02:13:36,960 Watson down Dobbson and Reed versus Watson. 2793 02:13:36,960 --> 02:13:41,880 Now I feel good about jamming Jacobs, Jacobs, Dobbs read good 2794 02:13:41,880 --> 02:13:43,480 plays. There's a lot of a lot of 2795 02:13:43,760 --> 02:13:46,400 commentary, but that's why you're you're talking about that 2796 02:13:46,400 --> 02:13:49,080 is you've done the thought process. 2797 02:13:49,240 --> 02:13:52,720 Your initial feel was that Watson would be lower than this. 2798 02:13:52,720 --> 02:13:54,880 As you've worked through it. You've had to raise Watson is 2799 02:13:54,880 --> 02:13:57,400 what you're saying. I've been raising Watson as I go 2800 02:13:57,400 --> 02:14:00,600 because I, I've just heard a lot of Watson love and I, I think 2801 02:14:00,920 --> 02:14:06,120 when people think through the bracket on the Packers, I don't 2802 02:14:06,120 --> 02:14:09,240 think people like the Packers And, and look, they don't. 2803 02:14:09,240 --> 02:14:11,560 I have a lot of reason to think that because I'm drafting 2804 02:14:11,720 --> 02:14:14,080 Packers. Hey, sign up for the sidekick, 2805 02:14:14,120 --> 02:14:16,360 legendaryupside.com sidekick and drafting back. 2806 02:14:18,680 --> 02:14:21,400 We need your help. We need your help getting these 2807 02:14:21,400 --> 02:14:24,600 Packers on teams. We're handing out Packers to 2808 02:14:24,600 --> 02:14:30,720 good homes. We're handing out Packers. 2809 02:14:30,760 --> 02:14:32,920 We're handing out. Packers. 2810 02:14:32,920 --> 02:14:35,160 We've got a bunch of Packers in the puppy truck. 2811 02:14:35,160 --> 02:14:38,520 Our our guest on Friday, Dick Myers, does the welly maker. 2812 02:14:38,520 --> 02:14:40,960 Pat's doing the Packer maker. He's just trying to get, he's 2813 02:14:41,120 --> 02:14:43,520 trying to find some good homes for these Green Bay Packers. 2814 02:14:44,440 --> 02:14:45,800 We can't get people to take these. 2815 02:14:45,800 --> 02:14:50,400 Packers I I just I don't think I don't think that people like the 2816 02:14:50,400 --> 02:14:53,640 Packers and Jacobs is a Packers win play. 2817 02:14:57,200 --> 02:14:58,240 That's kind of what it comes down to. 2818 02:14:58,240 --> 02:15:01,440 It's like Jacobs goes ahead of Watson in these tournaments, but 2819 02:15:01,440 --> 02:15:04,320 not by a lot on in the gauntlet and stuff. 2820 02:15:04,320 --> 02:15:06,640 He's not going way ahead of Watts, especially on DraftKings 2821 02:15:06,640 --> 02:15:09,000 with the with the receivers being a little thinner and 2822 02:15:09,000 --> 02:15:11,400 harder to fill they're. Close. 2823 02:15:11,560 --> 02:15:14,960 Do you mean Green Bay fade? Do you think Green Bay is going 2824 02:15:14,960 --> 02:15:18,200 to be 22% fade? What did you have the Chicago 2825 02:15:18,200 --> 02:15:20,440 fade at? I have the the. 2826 02:15:20,440 --> 02:15:23,800 Total Chicago fade at 28 and the total Green Bay fade at 35. 2827 02:15:26,240 --> 02:15:32,080 I don't know man fuck, I guess it's just it feels like So what? 2828 02:15:32,080 --> 02:15:33,400 People like Chicago more than Green Bay. 2829 02:15:34,280 --> 02:15:37,960 They so Jacobs and Watson are just good fantasy plays and I at 2830 02:15:37,960 --> 02:15:39,040 that. I can't. 2831 02:15:39,040 --> 02:15:42,360 Tell if I think. I well, I can't. 2832 02:15:42,360 --> 02:15:43,920 Tell if I. Think that's a mistake? 2833 02:15:44,640 --> 02:15:47,240 In your projection or mistake in the field? 2834 02:15:47,240 --> 02:15:51,800 Because the way it would seem to me is that the Bears and the 2835 02:15:51,800 --> 02:15:56,960 Packers are having to play each other, which negatively impacts 2836 02:15:56,960 --> 02:15:59,800 their one game win rate. But I still feel like the Bears 2837 02:15:59,800 --> 02:16:04,200 and the my assumption would be the Bears and the Packers can 2838 02:16:04,200 --> 02:16:05,920 beat. Yeah. 2839 02:16:07,120 --> 02:16:09,600 I've been saying, I've been saying this to Pat in our chat 2840 02:16:09,600 --> 02:16:12,160 that and guess he was telling me that both the Bears and the 2841 02:16:12,160 --> 02:16:14,720 Packers are super cheap. The the sidekick will get you on 2842 02:16:14,760 --> 02:16:16,440 either of them in the late rounds of the. 2843 02:16:16,640 --> 02:16:19,080 Yeah, it's like it's. Literally like pick it's time 2844 02:16:19,080 --> 02:16:21,800 for your Bears and Packers now, which would be like, but like 2845 02:16:21,880 --> 02:16:25,880 one of them has to win and then they're not bad teams. 2846 02:16:25,880 --> 02:16:30,040 They are live to then go and win again and go three games. 2847 02:16:30,120 --> 02:16:33,040 That's what I'm saying. Yeah, I totally agree with that. 2848 02:16:33,040 --> 02:16:35,520 I think the Bears and the Packers are are a couple of the 2849 02:16:36,480 --> 02:16:41,040 like best across all playoff formats, best plays that are out 2850 02:16:41,040 --> 02:16:44,480 there probably based on the way that sentiment seems to be very 2851 02:16:44,480 --> 02:16:46,680 negative on them. On the Watson point 2852 02:16:46,680 --> 02:16:49,080 specifically, as we were talking through the Packers a little bit 2853 02:16:49,080 --> 02:16:52,120 earlier, I was telling Pat I agree with him entirely. 2854 02:16:52,120 --> 02:16:54,120 Everything he said about Watson, I'm super into him. 2855 02:16:54,280 --> 02:16:55,639 I do agree with the chat a little bit. 2856 02:16:55,879 --> 02:16:58,080 The way that I wrote it in our chat was I think the degree to 2857 02:16:58,080 --> 02:17:01,360 which I'm confident he'll outscore Dobbs or Jaden Reed or 2858 02:17:01,360 --> 02:17:04,760 whoever is not proportional to the exponentially more lineups 2859 02:17:04,760 --> 02:17:06,400 he'll be in. That's when I thought Pat was 2860 02:17:06,400 --> 02:17:10,200 going to have Watson at like 12, Watson at 27 and those other 2861 02:17:10,200 --> 02:17:14,520 guys down at sub 2%. I mean, this is a team that 2862 02:17:14,520 --> 02:17:16,879 spreads it around. Watson does get the air yards. 2863 02:17:17,120 --> 02:17:18,440 I was just going to check his targets. 2864 02:17:18,440 --> 02:17:21,600 Most of the time he hits on like 5 targets, 4 catches, 80 yards. 2865 02:17:21,600 --> 02:17:24,600 Like it's not those five targets could go incomplete and then you 2866 02:17:24,600 --> 02:17:27,200 got nothing. And especially in a loss like 2867 02:17:27,200 --> 02:17:30,360 Dobbs gets more targets. It seems like Rita obviously 2868 02:17:30,360 --> 02:17:33,879 just came back recently. I, I do like the Josh Jacobs 2869 02:17:33,879 --> 02:17:37,680 play of the chat was saying Watson deserves to be the 2870 02:17:37,680 --> 02:17:40,840 projected wide receiver one. I like to write that article 2871 02:17:40,840 --> 02:17:42,520 input volatility. I think there's a lot of input 2872 02:17:42,520 --> 02:17:45,280 volatility with that projection. Another way I put it to Pat 2873 02:17:45,280 --> 02:17:48,559 earlier was if they play 10 more games, I'm not confident five 2874 02:17:48,559 --> 02:17:50,879 weeks from now that Watson would still be projected as the wide 2875 02:17:50,879 --> 02:17:53,200 receiver one. Whereas I am that like Puka 2876 02:17:53,200 --> 02:17:55,879 would be or I am that like the, the wide receiver one on a lot 2877 02:17:55,879 --> 02:17:57,719 of teams would still be 5 weeks from now. 2878 02:17:58,080 --> 02:18:01,240 This Packers team like it's Ben Watson and rightfully so. 2879 02:18:01,240 --> 02:18:04,480 He's been very good. It could shift another way with 2880 02:18:04,559 --> 02:18:06,440 with like how spread the targets are. 2881 02:18:07,360 --> 02:18:08,879 It's a tough one. It's a tough one to have that 2882 02:18:08,879 --> 02:18:10,879 big of a gap between Watson and the other guys. 2883 02:18:11,959 --> 02:18:16,040 Yeah, although just, you know, for people, I mean, I don't 2884 02:18:16,040 --> 02:18:18,959 know, maybe Mark's playing this contest every year. 2885 02:18:18,959 --> 02:18:23,600 But like the way this tends to go is that you have the primary 2886 02:18:23,600 --> 02:18:27,760 play, the secondary play and the and like the tertiary play, 2887 02:18:27,920 --> 02:18:30,240 right. And those would be Jacobs, 2888 02:18:30,240 --> 02:18:31,920 Watson and not playing Green Bay. 2889 02:18:32,840 --> 02:18:36,520 And then you get down into the Dobbs and the Reed. 2890 02:18:36,520 --> 02:18:38,920 And because there's not like one guy, it's not a Devante Smith 2891 02:18:38,920 --> 02:18:42,639 situation. I do think that they come in way 2892 02:18:42,639 --> 02:18:43,360 lower. I think. 2893 02:18:43,360 --> 02:18:45,000 I think, I think you're right on ownership. 2894 02:18:45,040 --> 02:18:48,120 I'm talking more about the play. Yeah, the play. 2895 02:18:48,120 --> 02:18:50,799 I, I, I think you have the ownership locked in. 2896 02:18:50,799 --> 02:18:53,280 And it is because the projection, there is a 2897 02:18:53,280 --> 02:18:54,799 meaningful gap in the projection. 2898 02:18:54,799 --> 02:18:57,600 Somebody just mentioned the projection Mark saying I'm not 2899 02:18:57,600 --> 02:18:59,440 saying you're wrong. If it's true, that's terrible. 2900 02:18:59,480 --> 02:19:01,959 I don't even know that it's terrible to be honest, because 2901 02:19:01,959 --> 02:19:06,799 it's like you don't have the like Jaden Reed is one of the 2902 02:19:06,799 --> 02:19:10,600 plays that we've probably done less of over the years. 2903 02:19:10,959 --> 02:19:13,680 It's like, hey, you don't need to play Jaden Reed. 2904 02:19:14,240 --> 02:19:17,160 You know, you can do other stuff like Kittle. 2905 02:19:17,719 --> 02:19:22,200 Great play. So I, so I, I that was actually, 2906 02:19:22,280 --> 02:19:25,320 I was hoping we would get here and we did get here by the end, 2907 02:19:25,320 --> 02:19:27,360 which is like to summarize all of this. 2908 02:19:27,680 --> 02:19:30,719 And I wonder how much this is going to end up functioning in 2909 02:19:30,719 --> 02:19:32,600 terms of what the ownerships actually are. 2910 02:19:32,959 --> 02:19:37,959 If the downstream effects of understanding salary cap DFS 2911 02:19:38,360 --> 02:19:42,280 come here, which is that the, the, the plays that end up 2912 02:19:42,320 --> 02:19:46,680 evaporating are the Romeo Dubs teams, the Jaden Reed teams, the 2913 02:19:46,680 --> 02:19:51,560 to, to to Ben's point, the Brock Purdy teams where if the, the, 2914 02:19:51,640 --> 02:19:55,360 the, the sorts of plays they get weeded out when you start to do 2915 02:19:55,840 --> 02:20:02,040 a SIM process are not the 0% plays, but like the truly 2916 02:20:02,040 --> 02:20:04,800 marginal plays. The the Manung guys, right. 2917 02:20:05,040 --> 02:20:07,720 Like we were, we were laughing about, we were laughing about 2918 02:20:07,720 --> 02:20:09,760 Manung guy earlier, like, oh, it's cold or whatever. 2919 02:20:09,960 --> 02:20:12,320 But like, you just really probably should never play 2920 02:20:12,320 --> 02:20:15,440 Manung guy over loved ones in in this universe because the 2921 02:20:15,440 --> 02:20:17,600 contest is not that big. How many? 2922 02:20:17,600 --> 02:20:21,600 How many entries are there? There. 2923 02:20:21,880 --> 02:20:24,400 Are. That's a good question. 2924 02:20:24,680 --> 02:20:27,240 Like, it's not that, it's like. It's not even 1000. 2925 02:20:27,240 --> 02:20:28,800 I was scared. I was going to say it's it's, 2926 02:20:28,840 --> 02:20:30,400 it's, I think, I think it's 10,000. 2927 02:20:30,640 --> 02:20:32,360 It's like it's like 8, yeah, 6 or 8. 2928 02:20:32,360 --> 02:20:34,240 It's not 10,000. I was just doing something like 2929 02:20:34,280 --> 02:20:36,480 it. It it's like a, it's like a a 2930 02:20:36,600 --> 02:20:41,000 decent size 3 Max salary cap contest, you know? 2931 02:20:41,200 --> 02:20:44,120 Well, and the other part of it is even when you hit on a really 2932 02:20:44,120 --> 02:20:47,160 thin play like that, it guarantees you almost nothing. 2933 02:20:47,480 --> 02:20:50,320 We've had years like the year that Juju was like completely 2934 02:20:50,320 --> 02:20:53,400 unplayed in the first round for the Steelers and we had like 2 2935 02:20:53,520 --> 02:20:55,480 teams with him and we're like, yeah, we're overweight on him 2936 02:20:55,480 --> 02:20:57,920 because he was played in like only like 10 teams in the whole 2937 02:20:57,920 --> 02:20:59,400 thing. And then you go look at those 2938 02:20:59,400 --> 02:21:01,560 two teams and you're like, yeah, but these two teams have a bunch 2939 02:21:01,560 --> 02:21:03,920 of problems with the other builds around him. 2940 02:21:04,200 --> 02:21:06,880 Like you can, it doesn't mean you don't play leveraged plays 2941 02:21:06,880 --> 02:21:08,680 at all, but you do have to understand that even when you 2942 02:21:08,680 --> 02:21:11,400 hit on it, it doesn't. It's not like DFS where if you 2943 02:21:11,400 --> 02:21:14,880 really nail one of those levers, they can propel you if you have 2944 02:21:14,880 --> 02:21:17,000 the right game stack around it. You have like one other thing, 2945 02:21:17,000 --> 02:21:19,400 right? You can't limit things that you 2946 02:21:19,400 --> 02:21:23,080 need to get right enough that to some degree when you play this 2947 02:21:23,080 --> 02:21:24,880 tournament, a lot of times you're like, well, I'm just not 2948 02:21:24,880 --> 02:21:26,800 even worrying about the guys that aren't going to be played 2949 02:21:26,800 --> 02:21:28,440 because they're probably not going to be in the winning 2950 02:21:28,440 --> 02:21:32,080 lineup because it's too hard to get them right in the the five 2951 02:21:32,080 --> 02:21:34,480 lineups that they're in. With everything else, you have 2952 02:21:34,480 --> 02:21:36,920 to get right around it. There's an element where you're 2953 02:21:36,920 --> 02:21:39,800 actually like, OK, holding hands with some of the field on 2954 02:21:39,800 --> 02:21:42,520 certain things because you're like, I have to get all this 2955 02:21:42,520 --> 02:21:44,520 other stuff right. So if like we agree that like 2956 02:21:44,520 --> 02:21:47,560 we'll just have CMC here, then that's kind of fine. 2957 02:21:47,560 --> 02:21:49,880 That's fine. Like Jawan. 2958 02:21:49,920 --> 02:21:51,920 Like having Jawan Jennings on this team where I nailed 2959 02:21:51,920 --> 02:21:54,360 everything else right is really pissing me off right now. 2960 02:21:54,480 --> 02:21:57,680 Yes, right. So it's like, that's right, I'm 2961 02:21:57,840 --> 02:21:59,760 the nuts. But this is the one where I got 2962 02:21:59,760 --> 02:22:01,640 fancy with Jayden Reid. Like, great. 2963 02:22:01,640 --> 02:22:02,960 Yeah, got it. That's right. 2964 02:22:02,960 --> 02:22:05,280 Damn it if I would. You go through that enough. 2965 02:22:05,800 --> 02:22:08,120 Cause Watson at 24 is still a low percent. 2966 02:22:08,120 --> 02:22:10,120 You'd be like God if I would have just played Watson but 2967 02:22:10,120 --> 02:22:15,200 those 24% of people gained so much on me because I played 2968 02:22:15,400 --> 02:22:17,600 Jayden Reid when I didn't need to on this team. 2969 02:22:17,680 --> 02:22:21,160 It it does suck. It sucks like it really sucks. 2970 02:22:22,360 --> 02:22:25,280 It's hard enough to get. I mean even if you play owned 2971 02:22:25,280 --> 02:22:27,360 players. The bigger issue is, is if you 2972 02:22:27,400 --> 02:22:31,480 only played shock, you dupe. You do want to do enough to be 2973 02:22:31,480 --> 02:22:34,680 off the the most common build types. 2974 02:22:34,880 --> 02:22:38,520 But that doesn't mean you have to get to 1% plays or sub 1% 2975 02:22:38,520 --> 02:22:42,480 plays because there's a lot of guys like Watson. 24% is not a 2976 02:22:42,480 --> 02:22:44,880 ton. That's only, you know, whatever 2977 02:22:44,880 --> 02:22:47,320 a couple thousand of the lineup with that one play you got, you 2978 02:22:47,320 --> 02:22:50,840 got 12 plays across your lineup. If you make a lot of plays in 2979 02:22:50,840 --> 02:22:53,920 the 20% range, you're probably not going to be duping too much. 2980 02:22:56,720 --> 02:22:58,320 Yeah. Anyway, what do you have to you 2981 02:22:58,640 --> 02:23:01,360 mentioned projections earlier. What what do they have? 2982 02:23:01,360 --> 02:23:04,680 What does HR have Watson at this week? 2983 02:23:04,680 --> 02:23:07,200 Davis, I'm looking at it right now. 2984 02:23:07,200 --> 02:23:10,480 They got him at 12.4 in FFPC and they have read at 9.1. 2985 02:23:10,480 --> 02:23:14,280 So they have a 3.3 gap and those odds at 7.7 even quite a bit. 2986 02:23:14,280 --> 02:23:18,280 That's a pretty big gap. Which which, yeah, what did they 2987 02:23:18,280 --> 02:23:21,320 have Jacobs at? They have Jacobs at 17.5, quite 2988 02:23:21,320 --> 02:23:24,240 a bit ahead, quite a bit ahead. So maybe I still have Jacobs a 2989 02:23:24,240 --> 02:23:28,280 little too low there. I do think Jacobs is a pretty 2990 02:23:28,280 --> 02:23:30,840 good play because especially like they, they're they're alive 2991 02:23:30,840 --> 02:23:33,040 to win, obviously, and be a 2 gamer. 2992 02:23:33,040 --> 02:23:38,640 And then, yeah, all right, I'll, I'll get, I'll get I'll get 2993 02:23:38,640 --> 02:23:40,960 Jacobs up a little bit again. That was when I was like been 2994 02:23:40,960 --> 02:23:45,800 trying to just hear heard so much Watson love, but Jacobs is 2995 02:23:45,800 --> 02:23:48,800 just projecting so much better. I feel better about going with 2996 02:23:48,800 --> 02:23:51,040 the projection. This is another thing, like Jake 2997 02:23:51,040 --> 02:23:54,960 says, Kittle and QJ plus chalk. That's there's a going to be a 2998 02:23:55,080 --> 02:23:58,000 that's when you get duped, when you play a lot of chalk and then 2999 02:23:58,000 --> 02:24:00,640 you just go, I'm going to play QJ because a lot of the people 3000 02:24:00,640 --> 02:24:02,520 who play QJ are going to be like, that's enough. 3001 02:24:03,000 --> 02:24:05,040 QJ is going to be in a a couple percent. 3002 02:24:05,040 --> 02:24:09,520 A couple percent is a few 100. And then I mean, or whatever, 3003 02:24:09,520 --> 02:24:13,680 not a few man math is hard. 10,000 ish teams. 3004 02:24:13,680 --> 02:24:16,840 Yeah. So 1% is 100 line UPS ish, like 3005 02:24:16,840 --> 02:24:18,760 80 because it's like 8000 or whatever you said. 3006 02:24:19,000 --> 02:24:21,720 So like if he's 2%, he's in 160 lineups. 3007 02:24:21,720 --> 02:24:24,480 And a lot of those lineups are going to put chalky pieces 3008 02:24:24,480 --> 02:24:26,880 around it. And Kittle himself is not not 3009 02:24:26,880 --> 02:24:29,400 chalk. So I mean, that's that's I think 3010 02:24:29,400 --> 02:24:33,120 you're better off rather than going down to the one like 2% 3011 02:24:33,120 --> 02:24:35,720 play and playing all chalk. That's what people are going to 3012 02:24:35,720 --> 02:24:36,800 do and think they're getting unique. 3013 02:24:37,040 --> 02:24:41,400 You're better off doing 3 or 4 pivots to the 20% guys. 3014 02:24:41,400 --> 02:24:45,080 The non like really good plays, guys who project really well and 3015 02:24:45,080 --> 02:24:47,320 they're going to score a bunch of points but are getting 3016 02:24:47,320 --> 02:24:49,840 underplayed because it's not as comfy to click them right. 3017 02:24:49,880 --> 02:24:52,200 Kittle's a version of that for sure, but you need Kittle A 3018 02:24:52,240 --> 02:24:55,320 version of that, Yeah, I would say Adams is a version of that, 3019 02:24:55,320 --> 02:24:57,240 too. Gretch, that is such a good 3020 02:24:57,240 --> 02:24:58,520 point. I mean, that's like basically 3021 02:24:58,520 --> 02:25:01,080 the most instructive way to think about this is don't have 3022 02:25:01,080 --> 02:25:04,640 your pivots be the schlubs. Have these pivots be high 3023 02:25:04,640 --> 02:25:07,720 scoring guys who have teammates who also score well, but are 3024 02:25:07,720 --> 02:25:10,280 just more popular. Yep, It's it that that like 3025 02:25:10,280 --> 02:25:13,840 honestly, we 2 hours, 25 minutes into this, we just like kind of 3026 02:25:13,840 --> 02:25:18,400 hit the the key of the exercise, which is like, yes, you should 3027 02:25:18,400 --> 02:25:22,520 definitely play the the guys who project well, but you can win 3028 02:25:22,680 --> 02:25:26,280 with Cameron Dicker instead of Chargers hard fade. 3029 02:25:26,480 --> 02:25:30,800 You can win with A.J. Brown over Barkley. 3030 02:25:31,200 --> 02:25:35,400 It it's less likely to win with Jaden Reed over Josh Jacobs. 3031 02:25:35,760 --> 02:25:39,080 And there's so many good plays that don't really get played. 3032 02:25:39,080 --> 02:25:42,040 You don't have to go to super thin plays. 3033 02:25:42,240 --> 02:25:45,280 I mean, there's there's like good high scoring players that 3034 02:25:45,280 --> 02:25:46,920 are not, we just went through them all. 3035 02:25:46,960 --> 02:25:48,760 We're going to go position by position now, right, Pat? 3036 02:25:48,760 --> 02:25:50,080 Pat's doing a little tweak here we are. 3037 02:25:50,080 --> 02:25:52,160 Yeah, I'm getting, I'm getting some things sorted out. 3038 02:25:52,160 --> 02:25:54,680 But I mean, one of them would be Trayvon Henderson, who I'm down 3039 02:25:54,680 --> 02:25:58,720 to 16% now. Yeah, that might be your Acres 3040 02:25:58,720 --> 02:26:00,920 play this year. Yeah. 3041 02:26:02,440 --> 02:26:06,040 There's a lot of dudes like that and I, I just put them at 15%. 3042 02:26:06,080 --> 02:26:10,280 I mean, Henderson is I, I don't know, I might. 3043 02:26:11,880 --> 02:26:15,040 ETR has Woody Marks projected the same as Trayvon Henderson. 3044 02:26:15,080 --> 02:26:18,520 We have to play Woody. How many How many weeks has 3045 02:26:18,520 --> 02:26:20,800 woody marks this would be? This would be a good one. 3046 02:26:21,560 --> 02:26:26,360 How many weeks has Woody Marks hit his his ETRPPR projection? 3047 02:26:26,360 --> 02:26:28,840 I was just saying this earlier. I think it's not happened. 3048 02:26:29,040 --> 02:26:30,160 Like I. Don't know. 3049 02:26:30,160 --> 02:26:33,360 I mean, I, I, I'm gonna ask Leone whenever we have this 3050 02:26:33,360 --> 02:26:35,280 conversation. Maybe it'll be Friday if he has 3051 02:26:35,360 --> 02:26:36,560 that. I'm sure he does. 3052 02:26:37,040 --> 02:26:39,880 I'll be curious what their projected number versus actual 3053 02:26:39,880 --> 02:26:46,480 points on a weekly basis as they've, I mean, he gets a lot 3054 02:26:46,480 --> 02:26:48,920 of playing time. Like your projections are going 3055 02:26:48,920 --> 02:26:51,280 to like them. I got everything to 100. 3056 02:26:51,400 --> 02:26:54,840 Everything's sorted out. Got the fades all to 200%. 3057 02:26:55,120 --> 02:26:57,920 Everything's sorted. Here we go. 3058 02:26:57,920 --> 02:27:02,440 Position my position, go through this quickly made adjustments as 3059 02:27:02,440 --> 02:27:06,720 we went. Drake made 33, Josh Allen 25. 3060 02:27:06,720 --> 02:27:07,920 This. Looks right to me. 3061 02:27:08,240 --> 02:27:13,080 This looks like the right order. This looks like roughly given 3062 02:27:13,080 --> 02:27:15,520 who their teammates are Like I think you did a good job. 3063 02:27:16,440 --> 02:27:18,440 That makes sense. I think it's it is still going 3064 02:27:18,440 --> 02:27:21,600 to be May and Allen, Hertz, Lawrence, Nick Stafford feels 3065 02:27:21,600 --> 02:27:25,880 like that a secondary pivot group, right. 3066 02:27:26,440 --> 02:27:28,480 And then there's just going to be some riff raff on those other 3067 02:27:28,480 --> 02:27:33,120 guys and yeah, that's good. All right, let's go to running 3068 02:27:33,120 --> 02:27:38,640 back Caffrey, the big chalk, then Cook, Jacobs, Barkley, CTN. 3069 02:27:38,640 --> 02:27:41,280 So this looks right and it does make me think, God, I can't 3070 02:27:41,280 --> 02:27:43,000 believe, man. I I can't believe this is where 3071 02:27:43,000 --> 02:27:46,560 I've gotten. But like Barkley here 42, I'm 3072 02:27:46,800 --> 02:27:50,280 I'm feeling I, I, I'm a buyer. I'm a buyer on Barkley as the 3073 02:27:50,280 --> 02:27:51,640 running back four in this tournament. 3074 02:27:51,840 --> 02:27:53,840 This also drives home the point we were just making. 3075 02:27:53,840 --> 02:27:55,520 There's only 5 running backs that. 3076 02:27:55,520 --> 02:27:58,440 How about the 20%? There's a big gap there. 3077 02:27:58,440 --> 02:28:01,880 You can get to the 6th best, 7th best, 8th best running back play 3078 02:28:02,080 --> 02:28:05,000 at sub 20%. Like there are, like you 3079 02:28:05,000 --> 02:28:08,480 mentioned, Trayvion, Pat, but RJ, Harvey, Hampton, Swift if 3080 02:28:08,480 --> 02:28:10,960 you want to play Romandre, if you want to play Gainwell, like 3081 02:28:10,960 --> 02:28:13,480 Gainwell's a decent version of that where like he's going to 3082 02:28:13,480 --> 02:28:16,120 catch 8% in a loss in A1 and done. 3083 02:28:16,120 --> 02:28:18,280 Gainwell could still be an optimal running back play. 3084 02:28:18,280 --> 02:28:20,080 Like there's a lot of decent plays here. 3085 02:28:20,080 --> 02:28:24,160 But yeah, as far as overall ownership, I mean, this is 3086 02:28:24,160 --> 02:28:26,560 actually what Joe was asking for before, so I'm glad that we did 3087 02:28:26,560 --> 02:28:28,800 give Joe what he wanted. I thought you asked me to make 3088 02:28:28,800 --> 02:28:30,760 like a pie chart or something, and that's that's why I said 3089 02:28:30,760 --> 02:28:32,680 that's what I thought too. Like there would be like a line. 3090 02:28:32,680 --> 02:28:35,600 Yeah, I thought it was homework, but visual. 3091 02:28:35,720 --> 02:28:39,160 That was a reasonable request. Travion looks great. 3092 02:28:39,920 --> 02:28:41,440 I think Travion looks great. I don't know. 3093 02:28:42,800 --> 02:28:46,120 I had extra quarterback because I took quarterback away from 3094 02:28:46,120 --> 02:28:50,120 Purdy and some other guys as we went and it went mostly to May 3095 02:28:51,200 --> 02:28:53,360 because I feel like, you know, as we go through, it's like, 3096 02:28:53,360 --> 02:28:56,520 yeah, there's not a lot of Patriots people are excited to 3097 02:28:56,520 --> 02:28:57,720 play. And I don't really buy that 3098 02:28:57,720 --> 02:29:00,680 they're going to gravitate to Hunter Henry because we, look, 3099 02:29:00,960 --> 02:29:02,480 you guys are all excited to play Kittle. 3100 02:29:02,520 --> 02:29:04,360 How excited You play 2 tight end line UPS. 3101 02:29:04,360 --> 02:29:06,000 You're, you're putting Hunter Henry in with Kittle or you're 3102 02:29:06,000 --> 02:29:07,640 not playing Hunter Henry. You're not playing Hunter Henry. 3103 02:29:07,640 --> 02:29:09,120 You're playing Trayvon Henderson, right. 3104 02:29:09,120 --> 02:29:13,400 Or you're playing, yeah, Stefon Diggs or May or Romandre if 3105 02:29:13,400 --> 02:29:16,000 you're a boomer. So you know, you're, you've got 3106 02:29:16,000 --> 02:29:17,920 other options there. I don't think Henry's going to 3107 02:29:17,920 --> 02:29:22,160 be super high owned. I think it's it mostly goes to 3108 02:29:22,160 --> 02:29:24,960 May, but I don't know. I mean, Henderson at 15 is like, 3109 02:29:27,560 --> 02:29:30,280 there's there's a Patriot I want to jam in this tournament and 3110 02:29:30,280 --> 02:29:34,960 it's not Drake May. How did this happen? 3111 02:29:35,720 --> 02:29:38,720 So yeah, we'll see. Let's look at the receivers. 3112 02:29:39,600 --> 02:29:40,760 Curious that it went mostly to May. 3113 02:29:40,760 --> 02:29:44,000 Yeah, maybe, maybe Nick's, maybe May comes down, Henderson comes 3114 02:29:44,000 --> 02:29:45,040 out. I'm going to get I'm going to 3115 02:29:45,040 --> 02:29:48,760 try to get some more Henderson vibes before I'll be adjusting 3116 02:29:48,760 --> 02:29:51,560 these as we as we move in to the weekend. 3117 02:29:51,560 --> 02:29:56,240 So all right, wide receiver. Yeah. 3118 02:29:56,240 --> 02:30:00,520 So the two big talk pieces is that like that feels like and I 3119 02:30:00,520 --> 02:30:01,360 was. Told he was loved. 3120 02:30:04,800 --> 02:30:09,600 Yeah, so this this feels right. Sutton being the third does feel 3121 02:30:09,600 --> 02:30:11,920 insane. I but I think the way the Denver 3122 02:30:11,920 --> 02:30:14,520 stuff goes because there's going to be very little hard fate of 3123 02:30:14,520 --> 02:30:17,840 Denver, right. So anytime there's a very yeah, 3124 02:30:17,880 --> 02:30:22,240 I wonder if there's there's. Not a lot of good receiver 3125 02:30:22,240 --> 02:30:25,800 place, like looking below that. I mean, that's like it means 3126 02:30:25,800 --> 02:30:27,720 people are gonna jam JSN and puka more. 3127 02:30:27,720 --> 02:30:31,440 But if you don't play JSN or puka or Adam's the puka cause 3128 02:30:31,720 --> 02:30:34,280 'cause keep in mind, 'cause people, you know, mention, oh, 3129 02:30:34,280 --> 02:30:37,000 your puka's low. Well, hang on, 'cause it gets up 3130 02:30:37,000 --> 02:30:42,040 to 87% once I tack on Adam's, you know, Ram's receiver is an 3131 02:30:42,080 --> 02:30:45,480 Ram's receiver is 87%. So it's pretty freaking high, 3132 02:30:45,800 --> 02:30:50,160 yeah. Yeah, and then and then just a 3133 02:30:50,160 --> 02:30:54,960 bunch of shitters like Ted getting Ted 40. 8% feels like 3134 02:30:54,960 --> 02:30:57,920 Cloud Soldiers name but dude, no one's playing Harvey with the 3135 02:30:57,920 --> 02:30:59,520 Dobbins thing. You you can't. 3136 02:31:00,040 --> 02:31:03,440 It's like oh I'm playing, I'm playing Harvey over Sutton, but 3137 02:31:03,440 --> 02:31:06,080 I might lose Harvey in the conference championship game and 3138 02:31:06,320 --> 02:31:08,040 I'm not sure I won him over Sutton to begin with. 3139 02:31:08,360 --> 02:31:12,320 I might prefer Sutton in a loss. Right, this is what Jacob was 3140 02:31:12,320 --> 02:31:14,200 saying. Nyx is such a good play as well. 3141 02:31:14,800 --> 02:31:18,960 I actually think Sutton is a good play at 48. 3142 02:31:19,160 --> 02:31:20,200 Percent in front. I think he's fine. 3143 02:31:20,840 --> 02:31:24,480 Yeah, I think he's probably a good play because the the reason 3144 02:31:24,480 --> 02:31:28,360 he's getting boosted up is valid and he's he's going to be held 3145 02:31:28,360 --> 02:31:30,200 down a little because people are like, it's Cortland Sutton. 3146 02:31:30,200 --> 02:31:33,120 But like, there's a lot of scenarios where Cortland Sutton 3147 02:31:33,120 --> 02:31:41,200 is the Denver play in my mind. Yeah, This is live or are we 3148 02:31:41,200 --> 02:31:43,720 live on YouTube right now? We are, if that's the question. 3149 02:31:43,720 --> 02:31:49,800 I'm not sure what else you mean. That's how much I love you guys, 3150 02:31:49,800 --> 02:31:51,840 bro. That's how much I love you guys. 3151 02:31:55,320 --> 02:31:58,880 Yeah, Crutch is saying he agrees with the ownership on Sutton, 3152 02:31:58,880 --> 02:32:01,600 but he dislikes the Harvey play or the Harvey on the show, too. 3153 02:32:01,880 --> 02:32:04,880 The Broncos, like, I don't know, the fact that everyone wants to 3154 02:32:04,880 --> 02:32:06,400 fade him makes me want to play all their guys. 3155 02:32:06,960 --> 02:32:08,680 Maybe Nick's does get a little higher. 3156 02:32:08,680 --> 02:32:11,000 I might I might bump up Nick's like a percent and take May down 3157 02:32:11,000 --> 02:32:12,880 and put Henderson up or something like that. 3158 02:32:12,960 --> 02:32:14,720 That'll be probably post, post show tweak. 3159 02:32:14,720 --> 02:32:19,200 But anything else from jump out to you guys from these 3160 02:32:19,200 --> 02:32:23,200 ownerships on the receivers, Metcas McMillan, we didn't 3161 02:32:23,200 --> 02:32:25,320 really talk about. Is Burden the litmus test for 3162 02:32:25,320 --> 02:32:27,120 how many slappies are playing the contest? 3163 02:32:27,160 --> 02:32:31,720 Yes, yes, yeah, 10% of the field is just straight up slappies. 3164 02:32:33,640 --> 02:32:37,320 Yeah, amazing. No, this looks good. 3165 02:32:37,320 --> 02:32:39,880 I think the big note is just like how quickly wide receiver 3166 02:32:39,880 --> 02:32:42,360 actually dries up. It probably means it's tough to 3167 02:32:42,360 --> 02:32:45,120 flex a lot of wide receivers. You might see more running backs 3168 02:32:45,120 --> 02:32:47,560 in the flex. You can get different by flexing 3169 02:32:47,560 --> 02:32:48,920 receivers. This is why I think Christian 3170 02:32:48,920 --> 02:32:51,320 Watson's higher than than it feels like he should be. 3171 02:32:52,360 --> 02:32:55,480 I might even change Metcalf McMillan, like if you want to do 3172 02:32:55,640 --> 02:32:58,920 sharp pivots, you go to those teams that are likely to lose 3173 02:32:58,920 --> 02:33:02,400 but have a a star wide receiver like a Metcalf and McMillan that 3174 02:33:02,400 --> 02:33:05,680 could be the guy in even in a loss that, you know, hits the 3175 02:33:05,680 --> 02:33:07,640 optimal. I mean, there's some ways to get 3176 02:33:07,640 --> 02:33:11,840 smart here on this field by like flexing a lot of receivers like 3177 02:33:11,840 --> 02:33:14,880 that. People loving Parker Washington, 3178 02:33:15,720 --> 02:33:18,360 such an elite play or like a Chargers receiver. 3179 02:33:18,360 --> 02:33:20,800 We were talking about QJ. People start throwing QJ on 3180 02:33:20,800 --> 02:33:21,760 there. I mean, I don't think that's 3181 02:33:21,960 --> 02:33:24,360 crazy to play him. Whoever mentioned that a minute 3182 02:33:24,360 --> 02:33:26,840 ago, you can play AQJ kill team. I just don't think play chalk 3183 02:33:26,840 --> 02:33:28,120 with that. Like, you know, you want, you 3184 02:33:28,120 --> 02:33:29,360 want one or two more good pivots. 3185 02:33:29,360 --> 02:33:31,800 So I was going to ask you guys about A.J. 3186 02:33:31,800 --> 02:33:35,000 Brown and Damonte Smith and and then versus Saquon Barkley. 3187 02:33:35,000 --> 02:33:37,800 And I figured we should probably, you know, wrap things 3188 02:33:37,800 --> 02:33:40,600 up, but then Shorty told me that I was completely off on Philly. 3189 02:33:40,880 --> 02:33:45,320 So now I I'm tilted and I have to ask you guys what, what do 3190 02:33:45,320 --> 02:33:48,280 you guys think in terms of my Barkley projection versus the 3191 02:33:48,280 --> 02:33:53,360 Philly projection? Brown at 20, Devante's down at 3192 02:33:53,360 --> 02:33:58,840 six, and then Barkley I had at like fiftyish 42. 3193 02:33:58,840 --> 02:34:00,600 Oh yeah, 42. So not even that high. 3194 02:34:03,840 --> 02:34:06,240 The, the idea that Smith and Brown are going to get to 40% 3195 02:34:06,240 --> 02:34:10,800 is, I think, an outlier perspective. 3196 02:34:11,640 --> 02:34:14,120 Shorty's entitled to his opinion, but I don't agree with 3197 02:34:14,120 --> 02:34:16,320 it. That's that's not the way that 3198 02:34:16,320 --> 02:34:17,400 those guys have scored this year. 3199 02:34:17,400 --> 02:34:18,200 That's not the way they're viewed. 3200 02:34:18,200 --> 02:34:20,120 That's not the way that team is viewed to win. 3201 02:34:20,640 --> 02:34:22,760 When they when they win, when they go on runs, they're they're 3202 02:34:23,040 --> 02:34:24,920 the thought is that they're going to do it through Barkley 3203 02:34:24,920 --> 02:34:28,120 or Hertz again, is I think a really reasonable play that's 3204 02:34:28,120 --> 02:34:30,360 going to catch ownership. We we've moved him up or talking 3205 02:34:30,360 --> 02:34:32,280 about him. You still have. 3206 02:34:32,560 --> 02:34:34,600 Ownership on A.J. Brown, he's the, he's tied for 3207 02:34:34,600 --> 02:34:37,080 the fifth highest wide receiver ownership in this whole contest 3208 02:34:37,360 --> 02:34:39,240 on a team where people I've talked about wanting to play the 3209 02:34:39,240 --> 02:34:41,640 tight end as well, the running back and the QB. 3210 02:34:42,280 --> 02:34:44,480 I, I mean, like, it's not like you're saying they're going to 3211 02:34:44,480 --> 02:34:45,960 be fully faded. When we went through the Eagles, 3212 02:34:46,160 --> 02:34:48,400 we didn't talk about Brown really a lot, but I was in my 3213 02:34:48,400 --> 02:34:51,800 mind going, that's right, you put them in a solid #20%. 3214 02:34:51,800 --> 02:34:56,240 That's right. You know, yeah, I, I agree with 3215 02:34:56,240 --> 02:35:00,480 this, Devante. Oh, no, I mean, that's a comment 3216 02:35:00,480 --> 02:35:01,880 I also agree with. But the one I want to pull up 3217 02:35:01,880 --> 02:35:07,640 was Devante Smith at 6%. Just feels off because we're DFS 3218 02:35:07,640 --> 02:35:09,640 brained. Right. 3219 02:35:11,200 --> 02:35:13,960 I think 5th, the 5th play that people are going to want to play 3220 02:35:13,960 --> 02:35:16,320 on on the team, Saquon Hurts, A.J. 3221 02:35:16,320 --> 02:35:18,360 Brown and daughter are all going to be. 3222 02:35:18,360 --> 02:35:21,640 And then Devante, the second receiver becomes the fifth guy 3223 02:35:22,160 --> 02:35:25,240 that I mean, people we talked about like there's the the the 3224 02:35:25,240 --> 02:35:27,720 primary chalk, the secondary chalk and maybe the tertiary. 3225 02:35:27,760 --> 02:35:32,000 Like Devante's fun, but he's going to be the 5th most played 3226 02:35:32,000 --> 02:35:34,200 player on his team. It's hard for that to be higher 3227 02:35:34,200 --> 02:35:35,880 than six. This is when I start to know 3228 02:35:35,880 --> 02:35:38,960 that that the the ownership is really getting dialed in. 3229 02:35:39,000 --> 02:35:41,880 People will pay play T law more than Hertz. 3230 02:35:42,000 --> 02:35:45,840 That's what's wrong. Hertz feels like a sick play if 3231 02:35:45,840 --> 02:35:47,880 he's actually. 12% right. Right. 3232 02:35:48,640 --> 02:35:50,840 Your dial it hurts is low man. I don't think I've over 3233 02:35:50,840 --> 02:35:52,400 projected. Hertz like British has been 3234 02:35:52,400 --> 02:35:54,000 really high on T law the whole show. 3235 02:35:54,120 --> 02:35:56,000 He wants to play T law like really bad. 3236 02:35:56,160 --> 02:36:01,080 Yeah. All right. 3237 02:36:01,680 --> 02:36:04,880 Tight end. Let's go to tight end Loveland 3238 02:36:04,880 --> 02:36:06,960 chalk, and I think it's going to be sneaky chalk. 3239 02:36:06,960 --> 02:36:09,800 I'm not sure people. Chalk Everyone who puts Loveland 3240 02:36:09,800 --> 02:36:11,880 in is going to be like they don't see it coming bro. 3241 02:36:11,920 --> 02:36:14,400 They don't even know what's about to happen to them. 3242 02:36:15,360 --> 02:36:17,360 But this is probably still low when. 3243 02:36:17,400 --> 02:36:19,080 You feel this? Going to be on them and not 3244 02:36:19,080 --> 02:36:21,720 realize, yeah, it's amazing, but. 3245 02:36:21,720 --> 02:36:25,160 Dude, all these idiots playing Swift and then Nope, it's all 3246 02:36:25,160 --> 02:36:27,280 Loveland. It was always the astronaut 3247 02:36:27,280 --> 02:36:28,880 meme. It was always Loveland that. 3248 02:36:29,200 --> 02:36:31,200 Is honestly, I think the Loveland thing is like part 3249 02:36:31,280 --> 02:36:33,800 like, like the value of actually sitting down and, and creating 3250 02:36:33,800 --> 02:36:36,920 ownership for all the players. Like it's like, oh shit, 3251 02:36:37,240 --> 02:36:38,960 Colston, Loveland's going to be chalk. 3252 02:36:39,280 --> 02:36:42,240 Like that's that to me is like one of the big values of, of 3253 02:36:42,240 --> 02:36:43,360 doing this. Yeah. 3254 02:36:43,360 --> 02:36:47,240 And, and totally. And that is the way that a lot 3255 02:36:47,240 --> 02:36:50,520 of the like boomers, if you will, will think about it. 3256 02:36:50,520 --> 02:36:52,520 They'll be like, oh, he's, you know, he's a sneaky player. 3257 02:36:52,520 --> 02:36:55,080 And then he, they're going to find out his chalk for us 3258 02:36:55,080 --> 02:36:57,440 knowing that he's going to be somewhat chalky, knowing he's 3259 02:36:57,440 --> 02:37:00,920 going to be 32%. He's still a smash play, right? 3260 02:37:00,920 --> 02:37:02,760 Like I, I was a little sceptical last night. 3261 02:37:03,080 --> 02:37:06,200 He went over 80% routes for the first time in Week 16, but he's 3262 02:37:06,200 --> 02:37:08,640 been over at all three of the final three weeks leading into 3263 02:37:08,640 --> 02:37:13,280 the postseason and the last two games. 10 targets, 6 catches, 94 3264 02:37:13,280 --> 02:37:17,680 yards in ATD. 13 targets, 10 catches, 91 yards in ATD. 3265 02:37:18,080 --> 02:37:20,960 Those are monster games heading into the post season with all 3266 02:37:20,960 --> 02:37:24,200 the routes to back it up that just started peaking and then 3267 02:37:24,200 --> 02:37:27,160 his production followed. Yeah, this is like a really good 3268 02:37:27,160 --> 02:37:30,800 play actually, even at 32 percent on a weak tight end 3269 02:37:30,800 --> 02:37:33,640 field with on a team that could win that doesn't have great 3270 02:37:33,640 --> 02:37:36,800 other plays. I think he and Burden are fairly 3271 02:37:36,800 --> 02:37:41,440 equivalent plays with Odoonsay coming back and maybe even you'd 3272 02:37:41,440 --> 02:37:46,280 say you like Loveland the tad more straight up in PPR. 3273 02:37:46,280 --> 02:37:48,720 And then it's this is half, this is tight end premium. 3274 02:37:48,720 --> 02:37:52,120 It's a 1 1/2 PPR. So and and then also we're all 3275 02:37:52,120 --> 02:37:55,040 kind of looking for tight ends and also tight ends. 3276 02:37:55,040 --> 02:37:56,720 Loveland's kind of fine and a loss. 3277 02:37:56,720 --> 02:37:59,560 I'm not worried about needing to feel like the Bears win if I 3278 02:37:59,560 --> 02:38:02,080 have Loveland. So, and and I mean talk about a 3279 02:38:02,080 --> 02:38:05,800 way to to hit the optimal at tight end, Like if he if he goes 3280 02:38:05,800 --> 02:38:09,760 nuts, you know, if he puts up a 30 burger in tight end premium 3281 02:38:10,000 --> 02:38:13,000 in a Bears loss, good luck meeting that. 3282 02:38:13,720 --> 02:38:15,760 It's almost kind of better honestly. 3283 02:38:15,880 --> 02:38:21,000 Honestly it's it's kind of almost better for them to lose. 3284 02:38:21,000 --> 02:38:23,800 And just like he had, he gets like 11 receptions. 3285 02:38:23,800 --> 02:38:26,520 You know, like you, you almost kind of want Loveland more in a 3286 02:38:26,520 --> 02:38:29,360 loss where it feels like if they if they get 2 games, one of them 3287 02:38:29,360 --> 02:38:32,840 being a win, then you get like swift and Burden so. 3288 02:38:33,000 --> 02:38:34,840 You have a non guy, You have a non guy. 3289 02:38:34,840 --> 02:38:37,480 Jake into the chat. No love for Jackson Hoss? 3290 02:38:38,120 --> 02:38:43,200 That's very good. I actually do have quite a few 3291 02:38:43,200 --> 02:38:46,360 gauntlet entries left to do so that's what I'll be doing that 3292 02:38:46,360 --> 02:38:51,200 later. But per this comment and so and 3293 02:38:51,240 --> 02:38:54,160 I don't think I moved the market and enough to for this comment 3294 02:38:54,160 --> 02:38:57,000 to be correct that I yeah, that my key law we got. 3295 02:38:57,040 --> 02:39:00,960 To move on. From shorty's like micro QB 3296 02:39:01,000 --> 02:39:04,720 tweets in the 10% range, he's really, really. 3297 02:39:04,800 --> 02:39:06,320 Stuck on that. Really stuck on it. 3298 02:39:07,480 --> 02:39:10,080 Jewish, McCaffrey said. Strange might Maybe a spinach 3299 02:39:10,080 --> 02:39:13,640 higher 9% Strange I do kind of like I think he's a pretty good 3300 02:39:13,640 --> 02:39:15,440 play. But we were also talking about T 3301 02:39:15,440 --> 02:39:17,600 Law has come up. We were talking about Parker 3302 02:39:17,600 --> 02:39:19,600 Washington. People are going to play some 3303 02:39:19,600 --> 02:39:21,840 Brian Thomas and some Jacobean. I think Strange might be high. 3304 02:39:22,320 --> 02:39:24,960 I think I might have Strange. He might actually get squeezed a 3305 02:39:24,960 --> 02:39:27,480 little is where I was going to go too, because ETN is obviously 3306 02:39:27,480 --> 02:39:30,880 the chalk there and the bills part of it where people want to 3307 02:39:30,880 --> 02:39:33,240 play Allen and then maybe fade the Jags a little bit, play the 3308 02:39:33,240 --> 02:39:36,680 Jags D or or just, you know, full fade them or whatever. 3309 02:39:37,400 --> 02:39:40,920 I think Strange is a good pivot. I do think you're right, Pat, 3310 02:39:40,920 --> 02:39:43,680 that if anything, you're maybe he's going to sneakily come in 3311 02:39:44,000 --> 02:39:45,800 lower than than he probably should. 3312 02:39:45,800 --> 02:39:49,840 I think it's a it's a nice play is what I think you're seeing 3313 02:39:49,840 --> 02:39:52,120 more than his ownership needs to come up. 3314 02:39:53,000 --> 02:39:55,040 Yeah, again, I don't think people are going to really be 3315 02:39:55,040 --> 02:39:56,680 excited to play multiple tight ends. 3316 02:39:56,680 --> 02:39:59,000 You'll see some multiple 2 tight end lines, but you're not really 3317 02:39:59,000 --> 02:40:00,280 going to see any three tight end line UPS. 3318 02:40:00,280 --> 02:40:02,360 I would I think those are going to be pretty rare. 3319 02:40:02,840 --> 02:40:05,840 And then? And if you build a three tight 3320 02:40:05,840 --> 02:40:07,840 end lineup, you're gonna look at the third tight end and be like, 3321 02:40:07,840 --> 02:40:09,680 this could be not a tight end. I'm gonna. 3322 02:40:09,880 --> 02:40:10,840 I'm gonna. What? 3323 02:40:10,920 --> 02:40:12,680 A nice little pivot I can make here. 3324 02:40:12,840 --> 02:40:14,920 But people do forget it is tight end premium. 3325 02:40:15,360 --> 02:40:17,440 They do forget. They do forget, but you get you 3326 02:40:17,440 --> 02:40:20,120 get Kittle in there. Now I don't have to play 3327 02:40:20,120 --> 02:40:21,880 Strange. I can play ETN right. 3328 02:40:21,880 --> 02:40:23,400 I can play one that ends a big part of this. 3329 02:40:24,200 --> 02:40:26,200 So that is a big part of what we got to figure out on this. 3330 02:40:26,200 --> 02:40:29,040 But let's look at kicker and Dee and fades real quick and then 3331 02:40:29,200 --> 02:40:30,880 get out of here real quick. I just want to what are your 3332 02:40:30,880 --> 02:40:32,960 guys thoughts on this? The Schultz ownership at 18 or 3333 02:40:32,960 --> 02:40:35,120 19%. We're we're in the weeds now. 3334 02:40:35,120 --> 02:40:38,720 I think it's going to be 19. That's good, that's good. 3335 02:40:40,040 --> 02:40:44,320 All right, let's let's go to Kickers. 3336 02:40:48,200 --> 02:40:52,040 I I I I dead ass. I do think if you are if you are 3337 02:40:52,400 --> 02:40:56,800 doing more edits, I would think about trying to find a couple 3338 02:40:56,800 --> 02:41:03,640 more percentage for Fairbairn. So you think, do you think that 3339 02:41:03,680 --> 02:41:07,520 the Texans get faded more than I have it, or do you think it 3340 02:41:07,520 --> 02:41:09,000 comes out of their defense? Why the? 3341 02:41:09,000 --> 02:41:12,680 Texans D is such a bad play on no, but they so the last. 3342 02:41:12,680 --> 02:41:14,800 Two years they've been optimal in multiple game. 3343 02:41:14,800 --> 02:41:17,480 Runs and people are going to be like the the people that play 3344 02:41:17,480 --> 02:41:19,520 this contest every year are like, man, I'm playing the 3345 02:41:19,520 --> 02:41:22,040 Texans. In a win, the Texans DST in a 3346 02:41:22,040 --> 02:41:26,800 win, you, you might be right Davis and and it might just be 3347 02:41:26,800 --> 02:41:29,720 that the Texans get faded a little bit more, but I already 3348 02:41:29,720 --> 02:41:31,120 have. Them at 35% I've got. 3349 02:41:31,200 --> 02:41:32,560 I've got green. Bay actually down? 3350 02:41:32,560 --> 02:41:34,960 To 31 now. So they're the 4th most faded 3351 02:41:34,960 --> 02:41:37,840 team in the I'm projecting them to be the fourth most faded 3352 02:41:37,840 --> 02:41:40,480 team. I'm projecting a chalk line up 3353 02:41:40,480 --> 02:41:44,080 basically to have like Boswell and I mean this was the boomer 3354 02:41:44,080 --> 02:41:47,280 opto Boswell and and Texans D. But. 3355 02:41:47,480 --> 02:41:49,240 I actually don't think it'll go that way. 3356 02:41:49,280 --> 02:41:52,480 I think but but you know, you see that's so easy though, like 3357 02:41:52,480 --> 02:41:54,640 when it's when it's that much of A one to one that's. 3358 02:41:54,640 --> 02:41:57,160 So. Easy for the. 3359 02:41:57,480 --> 02:42:01,280 To just swap those around or or to make a different fade to just 3360 02:42:01,280 --> 02:42:04,120 put fair Baron different D Davis. 3361 02:42:04,120 --> 02:42:07,640 The thing is, he's not. He's kicking outdoors in a 3362 02:42:07,640 --> 02:42:09,120 stadium. We just saw all these missed 3363 02:42:09,120 --> 02:42:11,680 kicks in Week 18. I think people are like legit. 3364 02:42:11,680 --> 02:42:14,680 Scared of Heinz Field a low total game. 3365 02:42:15,280 --> 02:42:18,960 He's already got. I just I just I I guess my my 3366 02:42:19,360 --> 02:42:22,040 brain is not processing that far. 3367 02:42:22,160 --> 02:42:24,600 The also the other thing is I've seen this has been a a. 3368 02:42:24,680 --> 02:42:27,040 YouTube comment I've gotten all week talking about this playoff 3369 02:42:27,040 --> 02:42:30,000 stuff talk people talking about how Rogers just not going to 3370 02:42:30,000 --> 02:42:33,040 take any sacks and not get any interceptions he's just going to 3371 02:42:33,040 --> 02:42:35,160 dirt every time this is this is wild to me. 3372 02:42:35,800 --> 02:42:38,400 He he just like melted down against the Browns 2 weeks ago. 3373 02:42:41,000 --> 02:42:43,240 I I I can only. Tell you what my YouTube 3374 02:42:43,240 --> 02:42:46,400 comments tell me. Let's go to the D. 3375 02:42:46,720 --> 02:42:49,000 We we've spent enough, enough time on the kickers. 3376 02:42:49,000 --> 02:42:50,600 Let's go see where you have Houston's D. 3377 02:42:51,000 --> 02:42:53,520 I like the YouTube comment. Alpha though, that's pretty 3378 02:42:53,520 --> 02:42:55,920 great. It's dude you you really pick up 3379 02:42:55,920 --> 02:42:59,800 on stuff like Devon Bailey. Most commented player in my 3380 02:42:59,800 --> 02:43:02,040 YouTube chat of all time. People fucking love Devon 3381 02:43:02,040 --> 02:43:07,880 Bailey. For some reason your YouTube 3382 02:43:08,000 --> 02:43:10,440 chat loving Devon Vele, it's just great. 3383 02:43:10,640 --> 02:43:12,040 I just love. It and I couldn't. 3384 02:43:12,040 --> 02:43:14,320 I couldn't. Breathe without someone telling 3385 02:43:14,320 --> 02:43:17,400 me, Diami Brown. Was a good round 18 pick this 3386 02:43:17,400 --> 02:43:19,520 offseason and I just like could not let it go. 3387 02:43:19,520 --> 02:43:24,480 'Cause it was so mystifying. Anyways, the defenses, you know 3388 02:43:24,480 --> 02:43:26,600 what, I'm going to try to find a little bit more fairbearing. 3389 02:43:26,600 --> 02:43:28,680 I'm going to try to get a little bit more fairbearing, which 3390 02:43:28,680 --> 02:43:30,760 probably means I fade Texans a little bit more. 3391 02:43:30,960 --> 02:43:32,280 I have the. Texans hard fade. 3392 02:43:32,480 --> 02:43:37,520 Or take it off their D at 0%. This is fascinating. 3393 02:43:37,560 --> 02:43:40,200 You have Houston and Pittsburgh's kickers were both 3394 02:43:40,200 --> 02:43:41,480 really high. You had both Fairbean and 3395 02:43:41,480 --> 02:43:43,520 Boswell, and now you have their defenses. 3396 02:43:43,520 --> 02:43:44,480 It's the. Top 2. 3397 02:43:44,920 --> 02:43:48,200 Lot of people are going to be soft fading that Houston, 3398 02:43:48,200 --> 02:43:51,400 Pittsburgh game. Think about doing something 3399 02:43:51,400 --> 02:43:53,160 different. You want to get unique, think 3400 02:43:53,160 --> 02:43:57,720 about doing it differently. Play, play Winnie Marks. 3401 02:43:57,720 --> 02:43:58,800 Is what I just told. You. 3402 02:44:00,560 --> 02:44:06,520 Not that, but something something Carolina D should be 3403 02:44:06,520 --> 02:44:07,880 last don't I have. Them I mean. 3404 02:44:07,920 --> 02:44:10,320 I've gone to two. Percent, yeah, I mean, sure, 3405 02:44:10,400 --> 02:44:11,360 that probably goes. I. 3406 02:44:11,360 --> 02:44:13,160 Could take that down to one part. 3407 02:44:13,160 --> 02:44:16,640 Of that is that people are going to be picking them to lose and 3408 02:44:16,640 --> 02:44:18,080 so it's easy when you pick them to lose. 3409 02:44:18,320 --> 02:44:21,080 Yeah, some people will play the D because you don't want to like 3410 02:44:21,080 --> 02:44:23,680 literally put, I mean, frankly, those people are probably us 3411 02:44:23,840 --> 02:44:25,840 because we're probably going to like try to randomize the DS a 3412 02:44:25,840 --> 02:44:28,480 little bit and we'll play some Carolina D So it's like it it 3413 02:44:28,480 --> 02:44:30,360 just when you when you're looking at a team that's going 3414 02:44:30,360 --> 02:44:35,440 to get like 90% total faded including the kicker and D and 3415 02:44:35,440 --> 02:44:38,240 then the D almost has to be played a little a little bit, 3416 02:44:38,360 --> 02:44:39,040 right? Yeah. 3417 02:44:39,080 --> 02:44:42,720 So I think 2's probably right. Who's? 3418 02:44:42,720 --> 02:44:44,640 The Rams backup. Quarterback, Can he throw some 3419 02:44:44,640 --> 02:44:47,400 picks after the Rams are up by 35? 3420 02:44:52,280 --> 02:44:54,680 Anything else on that? I think one thing I'll notice 3421 02:44:55,240 --> 02:44:56,720 probably later. Tonight or tomorrow, I'll 3422 02:44:56,720 --> 02:44:59,200 probably have Jacksonville DA Little. 3423 02:44:59,200 --> 02:45:03,840 Lower and get hard fade in there more because I want to get 3424 02:45:04,080 --> 02:45:06,400 Jacksonville heart fade up opposite Allen teams. 3425 02:45:06,400 --> 02:45:08,440 I think that's something I probably messed up. 3426 02:45:11,320 --> 02:45:13,320 I also think Denver heart fade might be a little higher than I 3427 02:45:13,320 --> 02:45:17,000 have it, but that's it. That's, I mean, also that's for. 3428 02:45:17,000 --> 02:45:19,560 The people fades, yeah. We usually close with a. 3429 02:45:19,680 --> 02:45:22,240 A a build that should do. We have oh. 3430 02:45:22,240 --> 02:45:24,080 Yeah. I do, yeah. 3431 02:45:24,400 --> 02:45:31,360 Pete registers team Nice. All right, So yeah, Carolina's 3432 02:45:31,360 --> 02:45:32,640 just going to get massively faded. 3433 02:45:33,280 --> 02:45:35,000 We haven't talked about the picker D for a reason. 3434 02:45:35,440 --> 02:45:38,040 Massively faded those. Top three teams are the big. 3435 02:45:38,080 --> 02:45:40,120 The big fades and then. Yeah, people want to fade the 3436 02:45:40,120 --> 02:45:43,080 Green Bay Chicago game a little bit, but I mean, it's. 3437 02:45:43,320 --> 02:45:46,200 Aside in some. Cases if you want it. 3438 02:45:46,200 --> 02:45:47,880 That's the other thing we've always said, if you want to get 3439 02:45:47,880 --> 02:45:50,200 unique, one of the things you can do, and this gets back to 3440 02:45:50,200 --> 02:45:52,320 that one commenter's idea of playing QJ. 3441 02:45:52,320 --> 02:45:56,000 I mean, one thing you can do is just play a Panther or a Stealer 3442 02:45:56,000 --> 02:45:59,120 or a Charger or two of them in losses 'cause there will be at 3443 02:45:59,120 --> 02:46:03,560 least two skill players that go, you know, one and done and and 3444 02:46:03,560 --> 02:46:07,200 all like some of these other teams are going to lose like 3445 02:46:07,200 --> 02:46:08,960 Buffalo as a fade we were talking. 3446 02:46:08,960 --> 02:46:11,200 About as a as an. Option 'cause if the Jags do win 3447 02:46:11,200 --> 02:46:15,560 that game then it's just who of the Bill skill players scored 3448 02:46:15,560 --> 02:46:18,400 the most. Did you know Tedaroa McMillan 3449 02:46:18,400 --> 02:46:21,800 outscore James Cook and when both their teams were losing? 3450 02:46:21,800 --> 02:46:24,680 Cause Cook in a loss probably isn't a great play. 3451 02:46:24,680 --> 02:46:28,520 And that can definitely happen more than the field will play 3452 02:46:28,520 --> 02:46:29,640 it. Like that's one of the smartest 3453 02:46:29,640 --> 02:46:32,880 ways to to get unique is just think through, hey, six teams 3454 02:46:32,880 --> 02:46:37,000 are going to lose this weekend. And it doesn't matter how good 3455 02:46:37,000 --> 02:46:40,880 the Bills are in general or the Jags, one of them's going to 3456 02:46:40,880 --> 02:46:43,240 lose. And there's a strong possibility 3457 02:46:43,240 --> 02:46:46,320 that the losing team out of that game or you know, any, any game 3458 02:46:46,720 --> 02:46:48,880 isn't the highest scorer of the weekend. 3459 02:46:49,120 --> 02:46:51,760 Everyone's going to think that it's the Panthers and the 3460 02:46:51,760 --> 02:46:53,600 Steelers to fade is kind of what you're showing. 3461 02:46:53,600 --> 02:46:58,800 But yeah, I think so. Couple people aren't that dumb 3462 02:46:58,800 --> 02:47:00,560 that are Max and they'll play Carolina skill players. 3463 02:47:00,560 --> 02:47:04,480 I think it's under 80%. That would be a big departure 3464 02:47:04,480 --> 02:47:08,000 from kind of years past. Like last year, the Steelers 3465 02:47:08,000 --> 02:47:11,160 were 91% faded and the Broncos. Were 86. 3466 02:47:11,160 --> 02:47:15,280 Percent faded 2 years ago. The Steelers were 95% faded. 3467 02:47:16,160 --> 02:47:17,800 That's all fades, including S fades. 3468 02:47:17,800 --> 02:47:20,400 That's total fades. Yeah, three years ago. 3469 02:47:20,560 --> 02:47:22,880 The. Ravens were 89. 3470 02:47:22,920 --> 02:47:27,000 Seahawks were. 86. Miami was 82 and these are teams 3471 02:47:27,000 --> 02:47:32,440 that time had about a 1% chance to make the Super Bowl 1 to 2% 3472 02:47:32,960 --> 02:47:38,640 and the the Steelers were 91%. Last last year faded actually 3473 02:47:38,640 --> 02:47:41,880 had a 3% chance. The Broncos were 86% faded with 3474 02:47:41,880 --> 02:47:45,080 a 3% chance as well. Panthers have a 1% chance to 3475 02:47:45,080 --> 02:47:47,400 make the Super Bowl. So fading them is like not dumb. 3476 02:47:47,560 --> 02:47:50,720 It's just, you know, maybe it's fading them a little too much. 3477 02:47:50,720 --> 02:47:55,920 But like McMillan, I don't know what would optimal be like 15% 3478 02:47:55,920 --> 02:47:59,480 or something. It's not like crazy and and no 3479 02:47:59,480 --> 02:48:01,720 the other they're. The biggest dogs. 3480 02:48:01,760 --> 02:48:05,120 And it's like a bad match up. The other reason this can't get 3481 02:48:05,120 --> 02:48:06,800 under 80? We broke it down last night when 3482 02:48:06,800 --> 02:48:08,000 we decided that their fade's going to. 3483 02:48:08,000 --> 02:48:11,560 Be so high is that there's three teams. 3484 02:48:11,560 --> 02:48:13,920 Carolina. Pittsburgh and the Chargers that 3485 02:48:13,920 --> 02:48:16,680 make sense for fading, but you, you have to fade 4. 3486 02:48:16,680 --> 02:48:17,720 So when we're getting to the bottom. 3487 02:48:17,720 --> 02:48:20,320 Of the boomer opto. You're squeezing out a team. 3488 02:48:20,320 --> 02:48:23,800 You don't want to fade somewhere you have like it's, it's a 3489 02:48:23,800 --> 02:48:26,720 favored team in opening weekend or something. 3490 02:48:27,000 --> 02:48:29,920 So you're already doing that with the way that the numbers 3491 02:48:29,920 --> 02:48:34,640 work out. Yeah, add Carolina into your 3492 02:48:34,640 --> 02:48:36,920 skill position thing. You have to then squeeze out two 3493 02:48:36,920 --> 02:48:38,160 of those teams. There's two. 3494 02:48:38,400 --> 02:48:41,120 It's a year where it's it's tough to get everyone in that 3495 02:48:41,120 --> 02:48:45,200 you want to have exposure to. It's like McMillan versus ETN or 3496 02:48:45,200 --> 02:48:49,120 McMillan versus McCaffrey or McMillan versus Kittle, you 3497 02:48:49,120 --> 02:48:54,360 know, or McMillan versus, you know, maybe maybe the Chargers 3498 02:48:54,360 --> 02:48:56,720 one is easy, but you probably already have them faded. 3499 02:48:56,840 --> 02:48:59,840 So McMillan versus Loveland at tight end, now you got to figure 3500 02:48:59,840 --> 02:49:01,920 out tight end somewhere else. Or Josh Jacobs. 3501 02:49:01,960 --> 02:49:04,920 Josh Jacobs, right, Yeah. Or Watson. 3502 02:49:04,920 --> 02:49:07,360 And you're already fading one of those you've already got or 3503 02:49:07,360 --> 02:49:10,600 James Cook or James Cook, which again, we think is a sharp way 3504 02:49:10,600 --> 02:49:12,160 to do it, right? Like you're fading. 3505 02:49:12,160 --> 02:49:15,800 The Bills is probably pretty sharp 'cause I think they're I I 3506 02:49:15,800 --> 02:49:19,360 do think the flip side of this is that we've seen teams worth 3507 02:49:19,360 --> 02:49:22,000 like really comfy plays not get faded. 3508 02:49:22,000 --> 02:49:25,320 Like last last year, the Eagles were 2% faded. 3509 02:49:25,320 --> 02:49:28,440 Of course, they did win the Super Bowl, but the Vikings were 3510 02:49:28,440 --> 02:49:32,280 5% faded. They had a 13% chance to get to 3511 02:49:32,280 --> 02:49:35,800 the Super Bowl that the Rams were 7% faded with a 7% chance 3512 02:49:35,800 --> 02:49:39,080 to get to the Super Bowl. You know, these teams like the 3513 02:49:39,120 --> 02:49:43,840 49ers tend to just get played and the Bills I would, I would 3514 02:49:44,040 --> 02:49:45,920 group in that as well. Let's build. 3515 02:49:45,960 --> 02:49:48,040 I love this from. Crutches Davis is hibernating. 3516 02:49:48,040 --> 02:49:51,960 He's I've I've never Davis has never talked a little on the 3517 02:49:51,960 --> 02:49:53,360 stream. Davis, you did a great job 3518 02:49:53,360 --> 02:49:55,400 filling in for Pete. You're just drafting over there, 3519 02:49:55,520 --> 02:49:58,600 it seems like. Well, let us let us talk. 3520 02:49:58,760 --> 02:50:01,240 See, I don't think it's 0% slowing down. 3521 02:50:01,800 --> 02:50:04,880 Yeah, I just, I also just have less opinions on this stuff. 3522 02:50:04,880 --> 02:50:07,560 I have not played these nearly as hard cores you guys have. 3523 02:50:09,840 --> 02:50:10,600 So. I I. 3524 02:50:10,600 --> 02:50:12,160 Have less I have. Less opinions. 3525 02:50:12,800 --> 02:50:16,040 There you go real quick before we move off the fades. 3526 02:50:16,040 --> 02:50:18,200 This is hard fade. You don't select anything. 3527 02:50:18,200 --> 02:50:20,360 I think most of the Seattle fade will come through the kicker. 3528 02:50:21,040 --> 02:50:22,760 Or the defense. Obviously they have an only. 3529 02:50:22,760 --> 02:50:26,280 Defense, so I have their total fade up at 8%, which is Jason 3530 02:50:26,280 --> 02:50:29,120 Myers for a one seed. Jason Myers had a really good 3531 02:50:29,120 --> 02:50:32,080 year kicking I he people and and he's a kicker. 3532 02:50:32,080 --> 02:50:36,160 People know, yeah, there's always a little bit and and just 3533 02:50:36,160 --> 02:50:39,240 like, oh, I know that guy. I was looking at ETRS. 3534 02:50:39,440 --> 02:50:42,000 Playoff projections like their points per game stuff for that. 3535 02:50:42,000 --> 02:50:45,040 That friend thing I was doing where I have to draft a kicker 3536 02:50:45,040 --> 02:50:47,360 and Myers was their. Highest projected point per game 3537 02:50:47,360 --> 02:50:49,920 kicker for the for the whole playoffs. 3538 02:50:50,280 --> 02:50:53,760 So if you want to fade Seattle, I mean, Myers is like a really 3539 02:50:53,760 --> 02:50:56,360 nice way to do it. Honestly, I I like the Jason 3540 02:50:56,360 --> 02:50:58,000 Myers play. Yeah, I think, I think most 3541 02:50:58,000 --> 02:51:01,720 people just go with Myers, who gives you a really nice kicker. 3542 02:51:02,440 --> 02:51:06,120 That's just exactly right. Jason Myers getting 23 points at 3543 02:51:06,120 --> 02:51:08,360 a loss on the table. Look, it's totally there. 3544 02:51:09,560 --> 02:51:12,200 Yeah. All right, let's build a line up 3545 02:51:12,200 --> 02:51:16,560 before we get out of here. Grab trying to kick us off. 3546 02:51:17,760 --> 02:51:19,960 All right, I'm going to. I'm going to kick us off with a 3547 02:51:19,960 --> 02:51:24,520 selection of Bill's full fade. Bill's hard fade is my. 3548 02:51:25,120 --> 02:51:26,920 Selection all. Right. 3549 02:51:26,920 --> 02:51:31,960 So on a bill's hard fade, we should take do we take Lawrence 3550 02:51:31,960 --> 02:51:35,400 or do we take ETN? Either way. 3551 02:51:35,560 --> 02:51:37,160 But it doesn't have to be a Lawrence. 3552 02:51:37,160 --> 02:51:41,520 They lost to the they lost. So that means that I like ETN. 3553 02:51:41,560 --> 02:51:43,000 On it. OK, let's. 3554 02:51:43,120 --> 02:51:48,640 Do ETN well, I I mean Liam, Liam's in channels and and now 3555 02:51:48,760 --> 02:51:50,440 now Shorty Vegas pick is also in channel. 3556 02:51:50,440 --> 02:51:51,960 So we're not making this a Lawrence team? 3557 02:51:53,200 --> 02:51:55,320 Yes. That's making everyone mad. 3558 02:51:56,440 --> 02:51:59,600 All right, so you took ET wait, ET NS. 3559 02:51:59,600 --> 02:52:01,520 Here, OK. Yeah, I guess I'm taking ETN. 3560 02:52:01,520 --> 02:52:03,000 But I was trying to take Bill's hard fade. 3561 02:52:03,000 --> 02:52:04,440 I want to make sure we. Didn't take play both. 3562 02:52:04,440 --> 02:52:11,400 Sides of that, Davis I will take. 3563 02:52:12,160 --> 02:52:13,800 I mean, let's just get Pook out of the way. 3564 02:52:15,160 --> 02:52:18,320 Bill's hard fade's already. Unique part of the game tree. 3565 02:52:19,600 --> 02:52:22,240 All right. So if we're talking Bill? 3566 02:52:22,240 --> 02:52:26,280 'S hard fade. And we don't have Lawrence. 3567 02:52:27,160 --> 02:52:29,600 This is either. A Bonex or a Drake? 3568 02:52:29,600 --> 02:52:31,480 May team. That's right, it's a Drake. 3569 02:52:31,480 --> 02:52:36,040 It's what I'm fucking doing. It was always a Drake May team. 3570 02:52:36,040 --> 02:52:40,120 It was always a Drake May team. So with with Bill's hard fate on 3571 02:52:40,120 --> 02:52:42,480 the board, we can. Put Tedder on McMillan. 3572 02:52:42,480 --> 02:52:44,200 Into this lineup, we did it last. 3573 02:52:44,200 --> 02:52:45,840 Night we're doing it again tonight it's. 3574 02:52:46,160 --> 02:52:47,800 It's a good one to get a Carolina play in. 3575 02:52:47,800 --> 02:52:50,600 We talked about when you're when you you're squeezed for for 3576 02:52:50,600 --> 02:52:52,000 teams, but we're getting the Bills out. 3577 02:52:52,000 --> 02:52:55,120 So it it works all right. Well, now we can do. 3578 02:52:55,800 --> 02:53:05,320 We could take McCaffrey. Like we can honestly with the 3579 02:53:05,320 --> 02:53:07,840 combo of Tete. Bills hard fade. 3580 02:53:07,840 --> 02:53:10,200 How many of that? How many that the combinatorial 3581 02:53:10,200 --> 02:53:11,600 ownership there will be? What? 3582 02:53:12,480 --> 02:53:16,000 Well, actually hundreds high because when bills are hard 3583 02:53:16,000 --> 02:53:18,520 faded, you're more likely to get, you're more, I guess you're 3584 02:53:18,520 --> 02:53:19,920 more like, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. 3585 02:53:20,320 --> 02:53:22,000 Yeah, tensions. Are more likely to be fading a 3586 02:53:22,000 --> 02:53:24,720 team. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 3587 02:53:27,040 --> 02:53:28,040 So wait, am I up? Who's up? 3588 02:53:28,040 --> 02:53:30,000 I'm up. OK. 3589 02:53:31,520 --> 02:53:33,120 So just thinking through the. Rest of the safety. 3590 02:53:33,120 --> 02:53:35,520 Bracket we need. We need Houston. 3591 02:53:35,840 --> 02:53:40,840 Houston's going to go to Denver. Denver the bad Nico Collins 3592 02:53:40,840 --> 02:53:46,360 match up potentially I I'm going to go Dalton Schultz. 3593 02:53:47,520 --> 02:53:50,360 OK, I was going to go Loveland, but Dalton? 3594 02:53:50,360 --> 02:53:51,680 Schultz. Schultz. 3595 02:53:51,680 --> 02:53:54,440 Schultz and Loveland. Schultz and Loveland, I think 3596 02:53:54,440 --> 02:53:58,240 you'll see paired. I don't know if I love. 3597 02:53:59,800 --> 02:54:01,640 Because then Schultz has to outscored Nico. 3598 02:54:01,640 --> 02:54:03,640 The thing about not having a flex tight end. 3599 02:54:03,640 --> 02:54:05,360 But we we get, we get the Denver match. 3600 02:54:05,520 --> 02:54:08,000 Up in this. In this bracket you see what 3601 02:54:08,000 --> 02:54:09,640 I'm. Saying OK, all right, then I'll, 3602 02:54:10,440 --> 02:54:11,640 I'll, I'm, I'm doing cornerbacks. 3603 02:54:11,640 --> 02:54:13,040 I think it's me before you, Davis. 3604 02:54:13,480 --> 02:54:16,240 OK, all right, go ahead. I'm going to do. 3605 02:54:17,160 --> 02:54:18,680 Well, I'm going to. I'm going to give. 3606 02:54:18,680 --> 02:54:21,280 You whatever question I'll I'll make you make the. 3607 02:54:21,440 --> 02:54:23,280 The Bears decision tonight and I'm going to take. 3608 02:54:23,520 --> 02:54:27,200 Josh Jacobs on this play, the Packers to win. 3609 02:54:28,720 --> 02:54:32,920 Well, it's not much of A decision because I'm selecting 3610 02:54:33,600 --> 02:54:35,000 from the University of Missouri Luther. 3611 02:54:35,760 --> 02:54:37,240 Burden the third. Let's go. 3612 02:54:38,440 --> 02:54:42,200 We had we had McMillan and Burden on last night's build. 3613 02:54:43,560 --> 02:54:45,760 Shocking. Shocking, shocking. 3614 02:54:45,760 --> 02:54:47,240 Burden. Why isn't he right at the top? 3615 02:54:48,400 --> 02:54:51,240 Why is he not ranked 1st? Burden Burden. 3616 02:54:51,240 --> 02:54:53,920 Why is I'm seeing puka nakua instead of burden? 3617 02:54:53,920 --> 02:54:55,680 What's going on that that doesn't seem? 3618 02:54:55,760 --> 02:54:57,800 That doesn't seem right. Not in my model. 3619 02:55:00,720 --> 02:55:04,280 I'll, I'll take Jason. This is actually sick. 3620 02:55:04,920 --> 02:55:07,480 This is a good team. This is the slap. 3621 02:55:07,520 --> 02:55:09,800 Well, it has. Etns so it can't be the full 3622 02:55:09,800 --> 02:55:12,320 slappy OP though. What? 3623 02:55:12,920 --> 02:55:14,320 That's just, oh, that's not the slot. 3624 02:55:14,320 --> 02:55:17,160 I got it. What's the we can always swap in 3625 02:55:17,160 --> 02:55:23,280 Tooting? What's the games that we don't 3626 02:55:23,280 --> 02:55:26,120 have a piece of yet? Are there any bills? 3627 02:55:26,120 --> 02:55:28,880 Steelers, we don't have the Eagles. 3628 02:55:28,880 --> 02:55:32,680 On the Eagles. 49ers Oh, we kind of Oh, no, we got McCaffrey. 3629 02:55:32,680 --> 02:55:33,800 Good, good, good. OK. 3630 02:55:33,800 --> 02:55:34,920 So we could. Fade the Eagles. 3631 02:55:34,920 --> 02:55:40,240 We don't have a Bronco either, but I mean Jacob made a 3632 02:55:40,240 --> 02:55:42,760 compelling case for fading the Broncos as well. 3633 02:55:43,720 --> 02:55:48,600 Philly Broncos fade the Broncos is tricky. 3634 02:55:48,600 --> 02:55:51,440 I think we should fade the Broncos because we have Etienne 3635 02:55:51,440 --> 02:55:54,000 and May, but that means we're we're. 3636 02:55:54,000 --> 02:56:00,680 Betting on Schultz in three. Games now oh Houston plays yeah, 3637 02:56:00,720 --> 02:56:05,440 I think we won a Bronco God because we have. 3638 02:56:05,440 --> 02:56:07,440 The Eagles. Yeah, we have both the two and 3639 02:56:07,440 --> 02:56:09,360 three seed winning, so Houston's going to. 3640 02:56:11,080 --> 02:56:14,920 We should probably pick the. The Bears Packers game. 3641 02:56:18,920 --> 02:56:20,920 Yeah. It's tough to do both, Jacob. 3642 02:56:20,920 --> 02:56:23,680 'S burden on. This no. 3643 02:56:23,720 --> 02:56:26,760 They correlate. Burden has 11 receptions for 82 3644 02:56:26,760 --> 02:56:28,360 yards and a. Touchdown and a lot we're 3645 02:56:29,160 --> 02:56:30,480 talking. We're talking about the bracket. 3646 02:56:33,240 --> 02:56:37,360 Though they do correlate, yeah, no, I think. 3647 02:56:37,360 --> 02:56:39,480 We do got to play a Bronco. I think we can fight the. 3648 02:56:39,480 --> 02:56:41,360 Eagles and say that the Niners just beat them and. 3649 02:56:41,360 --> 02:56:43,560 Mccaffrey's really good and the Eagles suck. 3650 02:56:44,200 --> 02:56:47,320 OK, so we're going to take Cortland Sutton. 3651 02:56:49,440 --> 02:56:51,920 No, we're going to take RJ Harvey on this team because. 3652 02:56:51,920 --> 02:56:53,680 We're Schultz's. We we want. 3653 02:56:53,680 --> 02:56:56,720 The Broncos to win 2 gamer. RJ Harvey. 3654 02:57:00,920 --> 02:57:03,800 Although I do like Sutton in a 2 gamer as well. 3655 02:57:03,800 --> 02:57:06,160 I kind of like Harvey on on. MA team because you're saying 3656 02:57:06,160 --> 02:57:08,840 they're not getting to the Super Bowl anyway, so yeah, yeah. 3657 02:57:14,720 --> 02:57:19,000 Yeah, crutches. Houston, Houston. 3658 02:57:19,000 --> 02:57:25,160 Denver Sutton, That's a no no. It. 3659 02:57:25,160 --> 02:57:26,160 Took me a minute. It took. 3660 02:57:26,160 --> 02:57:30,320 Me a minute to get there. So what do we? 3661 02:57:30,320 --> 02:57:31,880 Want to do with the Eagles? Are we doing? 3662 02:57:33,200 --> 02:57:35,960 Soft fade, right kicker, Their defense. 3663 02:57:35,960 --> 02:57:36,880 Or their. Kicker. 3664 02:57:41,800 --> 02:57:45,160 Could the Eagles defense? The Eagles defense is. 3665 02:57:45,160 --> 02:57:47,040 Not and they even scored very well. 3666 02:57:47,640 --> 02:57:50,080 They limit opposing teams, but I don't know that they do. 3667 02:57:50,080 --> 02:57:51,600 A ton they were. They were one. 3668 02:57:51,600 --> 02:57:55,360 Of the better defenses down. The stretch in some. 3669 02:57:55,360 --> 02:57:56,760 Like, you know. Some of the more advanced 3670 02:57:56,760 --> 02:58:00,920 metrics, I think they were, I think they've been playing 3671 02:58:00,920 --> 02:58:04,240 pretty good defense, had an easy schedule. 3672 02:58:04,440 --> 02:58:06,640 Someone, my brother in law's an Eagles fan. 3673 02:58:06,640 --> 02:58:07,640 He. Told me they had the best 3674 02:58:07,640 --> 02:58:08,680 defense in football. The last. 3675 02:58:08,680 --> 02:58:10,680 Six weeks or something just earlier today. 3676 02:58:10,760 --> 02:58:11,840 I mean, I know. They have a good defense. 3677 02:58:11,840 --> 02:58:14,560 I'm, I guess I'm wondering because they seem like a 3678 02:58:14,560 --> 02:58:16,520 stifling defense. So like, do they actually put up 3679 02:58:16,520 --> 02:58:17,640 fantasy points? But they should have. 3680 02:58:17,760 --> 02:58:21,080 That's a good question. So we could do Philly D. 3681 02:58:22,400 --> 02:58:25,240 They have at least one take away in nine straight games. 3682 02:58:26,000 --> 02:58:31,720 All right, that's the thing. And then we need to pick a 3683 02:58:33,160 --> 02:58:35,800 kicker. From. 3684 02:58:35,840 --> 02:58:38,400 Steelers. Chargers. 3685 02:58:38,840 --> 02:58:41,000 Or Bill's, but you've already said Bill's heart fade, so 3686 02:58:41,000 --> 02:58:41,400 that's. Out. 3687 02:58:42,040 --> 02:58:47,840 Well, obviously Davis wants to take Dicker the kicker, right? 3688 02:58:49,840 --> 02:58:52,080 Do you want Dicker against? May we? 3689 02:58:52,080 --> 02:58:55,360 Want we want, Probably Boswell. Give ourselves that out on 3690 02:58:55,560 --> 02:58:58,520 Boswell when I think FFPC. Playoff challenge, I think. 3691 02:58:58,520 --> 02:59:00,680 Chris Boswell, you think? I think Chris Boswell too. 3692 02:59:00,680 --> 02:59:03,480 They're they're synonymous. How long has he been This is 3693 02:59:03,480 --> 02:59:04,520 actually a good. Question. 3694 02:59:04,520 --> 02:59:07,960 How long has he been the kicker for the? 3695 02:59:07,960 --> 02:59:10,600 Steelers Chris Boswell. Has been a kicker for the 3696 02:59:10,600 --> 02:59:13,640 Steelers. Honestly, I I would have guessed 3697 02:59:13,640 --> 02:59:16,680 I would have said like 1998, 2020, 15. 3698 02:59:18,360 --> 02:59:19,800 That's that eight years. Now it's 11. 3699 02:59:20,280 --> 02:59:23,120 I love this the the Boswell thing as well with Schultz 3700 02:59:23,120 --> 02:59:25,440 because we're when you're playing Schultz in a win. 3701 02:59:25,880 --> 02:59:29,760 You're playing it as. Kind of low scoring, not a ton 3702 02:59:29,760 --> 02:59:31,760 of offense. You know, the Houston Pittsburgh 3703 02:59:31,760 --> 02:59:34,640 game, it goes low. Boswell kicks some field goals 3704 02:59:34,640 --> 02:59:36,680 in that loss. That's also Schultz could like 3705 02:59:36,680 --> 02:59:39,000 score a couple touchdowns and lose and become the optimal 3706 02:59:39,000 --> 02:59:41,800 tight end. And you're like, not if you'd 3707 02:59:41,800 --> 02:59:45,120 rather have a field player, we'll play Boswell in a yeah. 3708 02:59:45,120 --> 02:59:49,000 Boswell in two could be OK and Love does well enough you. 3709 02:59:49,680 --> 02:59:52,040 Know like if. Schultz crushes you like, want 3710 02:59:52,040 --> 02:59:54,800 them to lose now because you don't want Nico to come 3711 02:59:54,800 --> 02:59:56,400 charging, assuming Nico doesn't do well. 3712 02:59:56,800 --> 03:00:00,640 Yeah, guys, I kind of like this lineup. 3713 03:00:01,200 --> 03:00:03,600 That's pretty fun. I mean, that's the fun thing 3714 03:00:03,600 --> 03:00:05,920 about these is you. You. 3715 03:00:07,080 --> 03:00:10,920 Always get done with them being like fucking sick team dude I 3716 03:00:10,960 --> 03:00:13,280 know. You totally do There's but like 3717 03:00:13,280 --> 03:00:15,840 every player, this is like, I think it is a good example of a 3718 03:00:15,840 --> 03:00:19,000 thoughtful and and smart lineup where every player. 3719 03:00:19,000 --> 03:00:20,920 In here is good. Enough to score some points. 3720 03:00:20,920 --> 03:00:22,920 There's not like a. This lineup builds an example, a 3721 03:00:22,960 --> 03:00:26,520 smart lineup, just so you know. But the reason this is different 3722 03:00:26,520 --> 03:00:30,040 is we we got it. We got unique with our our fades 3723 03:00:30,040 --> 03:00:32,320 here. We full faded Buffalo and soft 3724 03:00:32,320 --> 03:00:34,760 faded Philly. There's not that's that already 3725 03:00:34,760 --> 03:00:36,920 puts you in like a 1% bracket of the field. 3726 03:00:36,920 --> 03:00:38,760 There's not going to be a lot of people that do both those 3727 03:00:38,760 --> 03:00:40,560 things. And if you do both those things, 3728 03:00:40,760 --> 03:00:47,200 you can play Puka and McCaffrey and JSN and ETN and Josh Jacobs 3729 03:00:47,200 --> 03:00:50,200 and Drake May and just you can, you can play some chalk like 3730 03:00:50,200 --> 03:00:51,360 that's how this tournament works. 3731 03:00:51,680 --> 03:00:58,160 Yeah, the winner was not duped last year solo shift, I think 3732 03:00:58,160 --> 03:01:02,440 the first dupe was was the 11th best lineup. 3733 03:01:02,440 --> 03:01:04,760 Or something I I. Mentioned it last night on the 3734 03:01:04,760 --> 03:01:07,640 show. I forget now, but it was not 3735 03:01:07,640 --> 03:01:08,880 duped. It wasn't duped the year before. 3736 03:01:08,880 --> 03:01:12,400 I I'm not sure this fantasy mojo's the the place to go for 3737 03:01:12,400 --> 03:01:16,760 that, but it's not that The top lineup is not tended to be 3738 03:01:16,760 --> 03:01:22,320 duped, but at the same time the line was fairly high up get 3739 03:01:22,320 --> 03:01:25,400 really duped. So yeah, yeah, it it pays to 3740 03:01:25,400 --> 03:01:27,800 pivot pays to make smart pivots in this tournament. 3741 03:01:29,920 --> 03:01:32,960 We did it all right. Three hours and one minute of 3742 03:01:32,960 --> 03:01:36,160 streaming. This is an episode of ADP 3743 03:01:36,160 --> 03:01:38,640 chasing this. Is what happens when Pete's not 3744 03:01:38,640 --> 03:01:40,040 here. Right, everything. 3745 03:01:40,040 --> 03:01:41,640 Happens. It just happens slower. 3746 03:01:44,880 --> 03:01:46,680 I know better than I, I. Don't have? 3747 03:01:46,680 --> 03:01:49,040 The cachet around here to keep you guys on the rails. 3748 03:01:49,040 --> 03:01:50,920 I haven't won $2,000,000, you know that's. 3749 03:01:50,920 --> 03:01:53,840 Sort of like so at the end of the day, I'm just. 3750 03:01:53,840 --> 03:01:57,960 Here, I got about 22 DK Millie teams done. 3751 03:01:57,960 --> 03:02:00,920 I contributed. So we're we're having A and 3752 03:02:00,920 --> 03:02:04,080 dude, I mean, imagine if Reeves was here, if Reeves was here, 3753 03:02:04,080 --> 03:02:06,400 we'd be halfway done. Holy shit. 3754 03:02:06,880 --> 03:02:10,080 Yeah, I would be I because I imagine about the the 49ers 3755 03:02:10,080 --> 03:02:11,720 match up, you know, get get in the leads fun. 3756 03:02:12,960 --> 03:02:18,080 Yeah, getting Jacob to, to, to go to a trivia night did help 3757 03:02:18,080 --> 03:02:22,000 because I mean, and I'm very long winded too, but we, we had 3758 03:02:22,000 --> 03:02:23,800 enough long winded people on the show. 3759 03:02:24,360 --> 03:02:27,120 It, it helped. But also like once Jacob left 3760 03:02:27,120 --> 03:02:29,720 and it was like our pace could have speed up a lot. 3761 03:02:29,720 --> 03:02:31,760 I was like, I'm going to just stretch out. 3762 03:02:32,640 --> 03:02:38,800 Exactly. And we learned a lot. 3763 03:02:39,000 --> 03:02:42,360 We found the answer. We did, I think, I think the 3764 03:02:42,360 --> 03:02:45,120 ownership projections I think got better than they were. 3765 03:02:47,000 --> 03:02:48,640 Before the start of the night, which is always nice. 3766 03:02:48,640 --> 03:02:49,960 Tweaked. Tweaked a couple. 3767 03:02:49,960 --> 03:02:53,640 Percentages here, tweaked a couple percentages once again. 3768 03:02:53,640 --> 03:02:56,320 Become a YouTube member so you can hop in the ship chasing 3769 03:02:56,320 --> 03:02:59,280 discord and get these ownership. Projections which I'll be 3770 03:02:59,280 --> 03:03:02,080 sending out later. I might send them out tomorrow 3771 03:03:02,080 --> 03:03:04,120 morning, but you'll have them soon. 3772 03:03:05,120 --> 03:03:07,960 And all right, I think that'll do it. 3773 03:03:08,320 --> 03:03:13,360 We'll be back tomorrow with Sacrilegious and Draco kind of 3774 03:03:13,360 --> 03:03:15,920 doing the the hodgepodge show. Then we'll be back Friday for 3775 03:03:15,920 --> 03:03:19,520 the final build show with Leone, which is always an absolute 3776 03:03:19,520 --> 03:03:22,320 blast. Guys, anything else you want to 3777 03:03:23,240 --> 03:03:24,360 tell people before we get out of here? 3778 03:03:25,800 --> 03:03:30,520 No, everyone. Yeah, make sure make sure to at 3779 03:03:30,520 --> 03:03:32,520 Karen in the discord if you can't find the ownership 3780 03:03:32,520 --> 03:03:35,080 projections or if you have. Any really specific? 3781 03:03:35,080 --> 03:03:37,440 You're like, I don't know, man, Hertz maybe shift 1%. 3782 03:03:37,680 --> 03:03:39,920 You think Johan Dodson's really not going to be owned at all? 3783 03:03:39,920 --> 03:03:42,360 Just like it's just to make sure you're in the ship chasing 3784 03:03:42,360 --> 03:03:46,080 Discord if you happen, let's say, to really like Trevor 3785 03:03:46,080 --> 03:03:49,080 Lawrence and kind of feel like you didn't make that clear over 3786 03:03:49,080 --> 03:03:51,440 the course of the entire 3 hour shell, you know? 3787 03:03:51,480 --> 03:03:54,080 You can you're going to add him that Jalen Ernst needs to come 3788 03:03:54,080 --> 03:03:56,800 down 2% and Lawrence needs to go up 2%. 3789 03:03:57,280 --> 03:03:59,960 Make sure he knows that Jewish Mccaffrey's saying if. 3790 03:03:59,960 --> 03:04:01,360 I miss on Allen's ownership. I'll be. 3791 03:04:01,360 --> 03:04:02,440 Disappointed. I will. 3792 03:04:02,520 --> 03:04:03,720 I'll be disappointed. Yeah. 3793 03:04:03,720 --> 03:04:05,160 It's going to be our fault this year. 3794 03:04:05,440 --> 03:04:11,360 No, I I will miss on Allen's ownership, but by just 1% for 3795 03:04:11,360 --> 03:04:12,840 the 4th. Straight year fucking nailed it.