Well, well, well. Our first afternoon edition of
Ship Chasing. Here we go.
I'm Pete Oversight. We got Ben Gretch, hopefully Pat
Curain rolling by here. We're going to talk about some
stuff all of us have been working on.
Gretch has been deep in the lab on the rookie running backs.
Pat is writing about Central American trees.
And I've been making videos about how to reverse engineer
your draft and digging into the week 16 verse 17 debates that
are bubbling up in our best ball, Best ball corner of the
woods. This is ship chasing and
naturally we will do a draft today.
Let's get to it, Pat Fryer helmos.
This is why This is why I'm hot. Anita Handjob.
Fix your sight. Jamar Alpha play Chase.
You can't handle the heat. It looks like we're finally at
this place. You're right.
All right. He made it afternoon.
He made it. Professional.
I know There's a cold open it. It buys me another 30 seconds.
I can stream with John, talk about his poker poker days.
Man, I I I shouldn't have revealed that you weren't here
yet, because then it would have been a magic trick.
You would have just showed up and people would have thought
you've been hanging out for 30 minutes before the.
Show. No.
I was literally streaming with Jon on Badge Press so they would
have known exactly where I was, but.
This is, this is how Jon gets me back because I do off and on the
clock with them on Wednesdays after swole cast and sometimes
will run long there 'cause you know, kitchen doesn't know how
to land the plane and so I push off and on the clock back.
So this is how Jon finally got me back for not starting right
on time. So Gretch is fresh off of
playing some golf. Pat has been podcasting.
I've been podcasting. But yeah, we've all been working
on various pieces of fantasy research.
Gretch, you had a a big post on stealing signals.
Was that yesterday about all of the rookie running backs?
Yep. Yeah, I I finally sent that out
yesterday. Yeah, what about that?
What about the Michael Pennix contract, which I sent a a big
tweet about as well, some other just kind of assorted thoughts.
But yeah, the rookie running backs are fun.
I think it's sort of crystallized for me that they're
going to be a group to really hammer.
I've talked a little bit on the show about not really trusting
the the rookie wide receivers that have really gotten steamed
up into the middle rounds. I mean some of the guys like
Aidy Mitchell we all really agree on, but I'm even like not
as high as the market will be on unlike the Brian Thomases and
some of those guys that are the non Uber elite of this class.
I think that group is really getting pushed up.
But I think what's happened there's that's there's reasons
obviously to be on rookies. We all like to be on rookies,
but this is a running back class that people aren't super excited
about. There was no elite, elite
talents. Jonathan Brooks and Troy Benson
are fine, but they're solid and that's about it.
And I think it kind of got a little bit overlooked that
there's it's deep. There's some really interesting
landing spots from the draft. Rounds four to six were were
really running back heavy even by I mean we know that a lot of
teams wait till day three to hit running backs but it was like a
lot of running backs went off the board and a lot of times
these guys. Landon's spots were like like a
band of candle. Last year we loved him.
Lance behind Breece Hall you know like this sucks.
And then late in the summer they signed Dalvin Cook and by August
like he can't even draft a band of candle like as a day three
guy. It sucks.
This year, I don't think. The other thing I don't think
really got emphasized enough is there weren't a lot of those.
I mean, you have Braylon Allen landing in the same spot with
The Jets. That's a little bit annoying.
And then they took Isaiah Davis behind that.
So Jets is a good example of one that's not perfect.
I didn't like the Will Shipley landing spot with the Eagles
'cause he's a great pass catcher.
They probably aren't going to throw them a lot.
You get those in every class, but that's only there's only a
couple this year. There's like a dozen that you're
like, yeah, he's the clear #2. He's got a pretty interesting
profile. Like I mean there's a lot of
guys that we should be in on and it just seems like in All in all
formats and the draft capitals not there, the rookie drafts.
It's great to get them in the third round and beyond in in
best ball. It's great to take the stabs in
the double digit rounds. It fits with the the ways that
we've been wanting to build. I mean it's it's a low cost way
to get rookie upside. And I mean if you look at the
last 4-5 years, there's been a lot of day three backs that have
gotten a lot of work in in their first season and it's actually
happened more than we probably give a credit for.
If you go dig back to Isaiah Pacheco, Tyler Algier, Roshan
Johnson last year played we thought he would after landing
there there's there's a number more but it's yeah, I think it's
a it's a it's a key this year. It's a big thing to hammer.
Yeah. And I'm I, Pat, I'm curious your
thoughts because you've been way more in the weeds obviously kind
of with these prospect profiles and I know that greatly informs
kind of how you think about their chances to be fantasy
superstars. But from just like a macro
trend, I do think there's this element of this is a bad class
and I'm going to apply that thought universally to all of
the picks. Like here's like what I mean by
that if this class had Bichon and Jameer Gibbs who are going
early, I think someone like Bucky Irving would be going two
rounds higher in draft being like this is a good class didn't
get Gibbs and Bichon got to get my stabs of this good running
back class. Like, I think that trickle down
happens where you see like Roshan and you know, even Tank
Biggie, he's the perfect one. Like another kind of middling
talent that got steamed up. Partly because I think of this
rookie enthusiasm and this was behind the back in Travis
Etienne, it was like really good.
So I do wonder if that macro stuff just trickles down into
public sentiment. Yeah.
Although last year was funny because last year was also
viewed as a bad running back class and we didn't know we were
going to get this running back class the following year.
And so I think part of it is that we just do tend to be
excited about the clear #2 rookies that are kind of like we
don't, we don't know the profile yet, Kendrick Miller, Tank
Bigsby, Roshan like you know we were, we were getting excited
but you know Devon 18 was also that guy who were like you know
you're getting him. It's kind of the right around
the the 10th round and you know that's an absolute smash.
So I think generally this is a bad running back class like it
it is, it's a bad running back class.
But Benson and Brooks are pretty reasonably priced.
I'm drafting both of them and then I agree with Ben that like
the landing spot was pretty clean.
Braylon Allen's done. I think estimate was pretty bad.
Not maybe, maybe he kind of emerges, but I think we need
like some OTA training camp hype to kind of get me back in.
Shipley feels maybe draftable, but it's not ideal.
Probably more of a a dynasty type of dude, but then like
Laubie ends up in a perfect spot.
Ray Davis ends up in an awesome spot.
Bucky Irving ends up in an awesome spot.
I have my issues with Irving as a prospect, but still way ahead
of ADP 'cause like he might be the early down runner in Tampa
Bay. He's he's the clear #2.
They don't have anything. And you you already.
And it's kind of a a a Sorry what?
Tried out literally everyone else like this.
Is it like like we know they don't have anything else?
And there's a talent deficiency at #1.
See, that's the way I ranked it in my post.
For anyone who who hasn't checked out the ceiling signals
post is I ranked it by like, how much my opinion changed because
of the landing spot. Which is kind of a weird way to
do it. But like I started with, we
haven't even mentioned Vidal, who I I started as the number
one 'cause I think his landing spot was incredible.
We know they're gonna run a lot. Gus Edwards, we talked about
this I think last week. Gus Edwards, you know efficiency
already kind of fell off a little bit last year.
JK Dobbins coming off an Achilles.
You got all this. You know the stuff that could be
very positive for him. Although he was around 6th guy
and there are there are concerns but the point is like relative
to what I thought about Kamani, Videl, Videl whatever his name
is before the draft. I'm like a lot more interested
after after landing there. Tyrone Tracy behind Singletary
is like. Yeah, Tyrone Tracey is an
awesome pick. I think he's kind of like the
Videl that people aren't even aren't even like drafting a ton
yet. I mean he, you know he he's
getting drafted like in every draft, but he's not, doesn't
have the hype that Videl does. I will say he has, yeah, he's
moved up about around. I want to say, 'cause I noticed,
'cause I put out my video, I did reverse engineering a draft on
the Deposit Kingdom channel. I took Tyrone Tracy and then
that just posted. I was looking at his ADP
compared to when I got him to what it was today.
So he is starting to inch up, but still nowhere near like the
Dell and and Ray Davis. So look, I'll just, oh, go
ahead. Not as bad, as bad as a a
starter ahead. I mean Devin Singletary is
probably capable of just like holding it down all year but I
mean like the talent level that you have to pass here is it's
pretty amazing how low that bar is for for Tyron Tracy and
here's the other thing about Tracy he's going to return kicks
I think and this new kickoff role like that's that that makes
things more important like that you have that the right guy
active. So if he ends up winning the
kick returning job he's active. If he's active and Devin
Singletares your your competition and like what it's
going to be Eric Gray is the is the other active back like he
could have a a role right away because he's he's secured an
active roster spot through the special teams role.
And I think that's the thing I've been wrestling with with
some of these guys. Vidal and and Tyrone Tracy, even
though I have been clicking them, is just like knowing that
the dead roster spot thing and I've fallen prey to that.
Getting too fancy, taking the Iziabana Candas and not really
understanding that they could be a zero and knowing that I will
feel a lot better about the depth charts in August.
But I think what's mitigated it is knowing that Tracy and Vidal
are such obvious picks that there are going to be risers.
And if I have those concerns now I like I would rather get them
at the cheaper prices. So I'm like kind of like
offsetting that where it's like, is the price now less risky than
when they'll be 13th round picks or 12th?
Round picks. So I think this is a really good
point and this is the point that I was trying to drive home,
which is this is more of a macro really in the weeds with the
draft and with like NFL history and like being obsessed with
that kind of stuff. Take that.
I don't think we've ever had a running back class in day three
that I can remember. I didn't go dig through it all.
I did click through a couple of the past years and look, but
where there's enough guys, you can say this was a smash landing
spot as we have this year. Like you just use the abandoned
Canada thing. We weren't calling it a smash
landing spot. We were like, that's a disaster.
Like that's a really, really bad one.
The ones that I threw out like the Pacheco one was was you know
a little bit later in the summer.
But we knew like nobody really liked CEH.
We knew there was like a a potential for somebody to take
that backfield over. The Alger one is the other comp
where like everyone was like well Atlanta needs a running
back but they didn't have Pierce on that Damien Pierce one for
Houston's another great one. That's another one that that I
pulled up and Roshan last year and these guys played.
They weren't zeros. They all of those guys weren't
dead roster spots and and that's the thing with Tracy and maybe
not quite as much Vidal who does have Edwards and Dobbins ahead
of him. And they could just be veteran,
you know, deferring to the veterans all year and they could
just be kind of annoying about it with the Chargers.
But Tracy looks very clearly like the like a top 2 running
back in his backfield. Like he's they the other guys
that you have on the roster right now.
They've tried and have not really worked.
Blake Quorum got that same same situation.
Marshawn Lloyd got that situation.
Trey Benson got that situation. Bucky Irving got that situation.
Every one of those dudes does not really have competition for
the number two job and some of them you could argue might be
able to compete for the number one or or some some early on
work. Especially at the end of the
season and and and also I'd say there's a landscape where we're
like we're not sure about a number of spots like who's the
number two in Indianapolis, like probably Evan Hall.
But like we haven't heard Evan Hall about Evan Hall in a while
and like it might not be and so I'm not like drafting him right
now. I'll drop the crap out of him if
he's clearly the number 2 after you know the preseason and we
get that information. But it's like a a landscape
where we don't know. So like getting a Ray Davis.
Getting a a Blake quorum. Getting a Bucky Irving a
Marshawn Lloyd like those dudes. Like a Tracy I think fits with
this where like I'm pretty confident he's gonna have a
role, or at least a role if something happens to the starter
and it it, you know, if you need a running back in that range.
Like, you know, Elijah Mitchell was another guy like this
before, but now we actually lose confidence that he's the number
2 because they draft Gorendo. So yeah, Tracy Tracy to me,
really like I just pulled up the Beast and this is what Dame
Bruegler had about him. Ranked second in the Big 10 in
kick return yardage yardage in 2023, including a 98 yard
touchdown return. Also stood out on kick and punt
coverages with six special teams tackles.
And then he says he needs to improve his decision making at
the line of scrimmage, but he can create with his lateral
quickness, cuts, contact, balance.
He can stay on the field on passing downs.
He's a multi dimensional threat as a rusher, receiver and
special teamer which will increase his chance of
commanding an NFL roster spot. If you're just like, I don't
want a dead roster spot and I want a guy who has upside with
athleticism, he's very athletic pass catching ability, which is
the whole point of him. He's a converted wide receiver,
weak, got weak starter ahead. You're getting floor and
ceiling. You're getting floor and
ceiling. Yeah, he's, I mean.
It's he's maybe more of a risk for dead Ralph's spot and maybe
overstating that the chat saying it a little bit.
I will point out Antonio Gibson did even less as a runner in
college and was used early in the pros.
They took him in the fifth round in the middle of this.
We're like, so like one of the things I talked about in my
articles like the NFL also didn't think there was a high
end guy. They took Jonathan Brooks in the
second round and then a few guys trickle out in the later part of
the third round. Well Benson a little bit earlier
in the third round but Coram and Lloyd.
But then as soon as Jalen Wright goes off in the fourth there
were 12345 more taken in the next 15 picks.
So six in a in a 15 pick span. And then in the 5th there was
another really big run. There was almost 20 backs taken
in rounds 4-5 and six, none in round seven.
Like a lot of times they actually wait till seven or like
some of these guys become UDFAS as soon as team started taking
him everyone jumped in and was like we got a guy we like we
want to get and they started coming off the board.
And so the the point is if the giants wanted in every down back
or that's what they were looking for that like they could have
taken Vidal that's what he like what he was kind of a workhorse
at Troy they had other options and there were a lot of other
and they could have even taken one earlier.
It seems like they were maybe into Tracy.
I think like the fact that they were willing to take him during
this like run on running backs it like I I'm looking at that
favorably. Sakura, just pointing out 98
yards to the fucking house. We are still in the in the lab
thinking about clips that made me move the needle for me a
little bit. Tyrone Tracy would be a good
one. The the other thing too, it's
like when when you're on Tyrone Tracy, it's it's not mutually
exclusive. Like Devin Singletary's price is
extremely palatable. There are certainly scenarios
where he holds off and has the job the whole year and he pays
off that draft cost. But again, when we're thinking
about best ball, we're trying to get big wins at the end of the
season. Tyron Tracy is the only athlete
in this backfield. He's the only back that runs
quicker than A4540. Like, he is the only guy with
juice in this backfield. And if we see that juice, it's
probably going to be in the final weeks of the season,
whether because of chaos in the backfield or just because of his
own efficiency. So I mean, we're talking
literally. The only downside is if he is an
outright 0, that's that's the downside.
Anything else with him getting on the field like you're loving
it at this price? He's also 209 lbs, So he's not
like he's not 188, you know, you're not like, he's not pure
pure scat back, like he could be out there as like A1A back.
You know that. That's not, I mean it's it's
just not that implausible that by the end of the season he has
a role like that. Devin Singletary's generally
just been like a snap eater and you know, the most likely
scenario is that he just eats most of the snaps all season and
and Tracy has trouble, you know, breaking in 'cause they trust
Devin Singletary. But like it's pretty fragile
though, you know like Devin Singletary playing every snap
all season is pretty fragile and if it if there's no one else,
like there's you know, and again I think this is where the kick
returning thing is, is important 'cause it's like he's gonna be
active. You need to be you need you need
as many possible ways as as we can get to be in the right place
at the right time. And that kick returning ability
I think helps him be the next man up.
Yeah, there's I mean, some of the guys, the people in chat
seem a little bit concerned about Tracy, and I get it.
And I mean I I I love that this is turning into a a whole
discussion about Tracy, 'cause he's awesome.
He's a great example of this point.
But maybe there's like a little bit more concern to him.
But I will just drive home that like if if you're concerned
about that. If you don't, if you someone
said that the the Giants #2's not on the roster.
If if you are concerned about that, fine.
But you can still. Then you have to pay a little
bit more in drafts but they're still very affordable.
You can still then go to Quorum or Lloyd or Benson or you know
certainly Bucky Irving is is is cheaper even.
But like looks like he's definitely going to be the
number. So the big thing about Bucky
Irving is he went as the 12345 sixth running back off the
board. There was all these athleticism
concerns. He was ranked like 10th plus on
most people's boards. I remember on ESPN he was like 5
running backs down on their best available running backs when he
was selected. So when a team pulls him up over
four guys on, you know a lot of these consensus boards at the
position, four guys at the position and he goes RB7 in the
earlier part of the fourth round or RB6 in the earlier part of
the fourth round. Like that's that's their number
2. That's the dude that they they
liked and and now you can look at the rest of the profile.
You don't have to worry so much about the athleticism.
Like there's a lot of these dudes that I feel really
confident aren't gonna be 0. Some of them probably will be.
I don't wanna like act like Hyrone.
Tracy's definitely not gonna be a zero, and someone reminds us
in October. Earth Is Kendrick Miller gonna
be a zero, you know? Right it.
It will happen. We'll be wrong about some of
these guys. But by the way, on the 'cause
now I've maybe overemphasized the special teams too much
'cause people are. Someone said is he just Kenny
and Wang Wu? Kenny and Wang Wu had seven
career college receptions. Tyron Tracy had 113.
So I don't, I don't, I don't want to go two-part of the
specialty, it's nice. But the the main part of this is
that he's a receiving specialist in a way that the guy like in
Wang Wu just just was not. Gretch, was there anyone else of
those rookies that kind of particularly stood out to you
when? You were doing that exercise,
Pat mentioned Ray Davis, who's another guy that I I didn't when
I was kind of going through the the number twos.
But he feels like a pretty clear #2, right?
Like, yeah, I think so, yeah. And then the other one, I like
the landing spot, but don't necessarily love and you
mentioned lobby as well. And like Gorendo's kind of
interesting just because anyone in San Francisco is interesting.
But the other one that I like, like but don't kind of love that
we haven't mentioned, you know, is Jalen right?
Where it's like I I do think it's easy to be like Raheem
Osert's 32. They they drafted somewhere.
They're going to play over Monster.
Like they're not going to play him over Monster.
Monster's a different type of 32 year old.
He just had his best career season at 31.
He's not going to get usurped by anyone.
They're going to get as much out of him as they can.
Like they see him as their starter, right?
Like he's a huge part of their offense until he gets hurt.
At what point if he does get hurt, Wright's opportunity is
there or if it's a chain who gets hurt?
I think Wright's opportunity is there.
It seems like he's got two outs injury wise and you want players
in Mike Mcdaniel's offense. We know that.
Like it? Like they They wouldn't have to
write athleticism. Like it's he's athletic.
He's got he's 210 he's fast he's in he's a he's A2 down like hit
the he has red flags he doesn't really catch passes he's a one
cut runner gets downhill explosive but he's not gonna be
involved as a receiver. The only place that I'm excited
about him is in San Francisco or Miami and he's in Miami.
So all right, check now what a 32 year old starter and maybe
the other guy who might be the starter is like 188 lbs and even
if he is awesome, is not going to get every touch.
So and we're and we're in a system that traditionally
rotates the backs and you're asking me to pay like pick 140
for this dude? Yeah, great.
I will. That sounds that sounds awesome.
Like this is you know we there's a few backfields where we want
to just be taking stabs and this to me is one of them.
It's it's doesn't jump as like one of these highly uncertain
backfields because HN's going in like the second, third round and
most are it's going like top 100.
So it seems like we we figured this one out but we really
haven't. This is actually somewhat
uncertain of a backfield as we think about especially the late
season. What does this backfield look
like? If you're giving me a cheap stab
on an athletic downhill runner? Like, I I don't even like Jill
and Wright that much. But like this, this feels like
kind of a like an easy Click to me.
He's not like a absolute smash, but just.
He could be a 0. Happy to take him.
Happy to take him, yeah. He could be a 0, but he's a
handcuffed with with sealing. He's that type of player in your
build, like a lot of weeks. He probably isn't being used a
lot. Either of those guys misses
time. Suddenly he could be a 15 point
per game guy and you're like, all right, I'm, I'm it like,
that's awesome. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
And I think people, you know, this happened last year, right?
Anytime there's a backfield with three backs, the market
struggles with that. And maybe last year I was like,
overconfident on the ambiguity of the Bears backfield,
resulting in like a clear winner, which didn't really end
up happening. But I feel pretty confident
saying there's asymmetric upside with the Dolphins backfield that
when, like, the risk at Jalen Wright's ADP specifically is
like fully baked out. You could say maybe not with a
chance, like, I'll listen to that argument, but at Wright's
price, it's like all it takes is literally one injury.
Or Mike McDaniel just using him as one of his weapons.
He only has five weapons now, like he's his fifth weapon in
this offense. Like, it's just not hard for me
to see him paying that off. Yeah, and I mean like the two
last year, the the backfields were like just draft all, all
the guys, just draft all the guys.
It was the Bears and it was the Dolphins.
And the Bears might not have had, yeah, the Saints a little
bit, but the the Dolphins, you know, the Bears basically didn't
give us any hits, but the Dolphins gave us two.
So. So this general strategy works
pretty well. And it's weird, 'cause, you
know, two of the guys this year are expensive now.
But you know this, this is like this is a offense we expect to
put up points to the running back.
This this running back looks like he could be pretty talented
and he's cheap. And and I just wanna like we've
we've had a lot of fun talking about a couple of these names.
I'm I'm going back to the the broader point again, but there's
so many names that we've mentioned and the chat even on a
ship chasing show where we're all very rookie friendly but we
don't like running backs and no one really likes running backs
anymore. They're even in the.
One 20s and one 40s. Right.
I know that's what I'm saying. But like, Chad's like Sean
Tucker over Bucky Irving. And like, I feel like they're
not even, like even in our neck of the woods they're not even
buying this take so much because of I think the day three capital
is gonna hang up a lot of people.
My point is just I think they're gonna stay of value.
There's enough names and there's enough people that go, well,
they're day three capital. And the thing I've been trying
to emphasize is this class, How many went in rounds 4-5?
And six was unique and I don't think early day three capital at
running back specifically is what it used to because we know
that it's like takes a lot for a team to use a third round pick
on a running back these days, especially a second round or
higher. I mean if you again, you go look
at the last few draft classes and you look through day three,
you'll see guys who got early opportunity.
Some of them didn't even get rookie your opportunity.
But like Kyron Williams is a day three guy who in year two they
made him their guy. Like these teams don't treat day
three capital like it's a throwaway at running back.
They're like, this is a guy that's a part of our our depth
chart like he's he's, he could. Play and and you got to apply
what the team did like in a logically consistent way.
Like not to pick on the Sean Tucker example, but it's like
the team told us how they feel about Sean Tucker when they made
that Bucky Irving pick. Like you can't like this one
told us. How they felt and they didn't
draft him. Yeah, yeah.
So I I think that that's the teams give us such a big clue
into how they feel about the players on their team.
It's not just the picks they make, it's how they feel about
their current roster. And that's why it's like if the
Giants only sign Devin Singletary and then only spend a
pick on Tyrone Tracy, they might feel pretty good about like
where they're at or feel like they don't need to devote a lot
of capital there. So I don't know.
I think that's a a point that gets lost sometimes.
Yeah, and I I think the other point that's big here, 'cause I
wasn't that big on some of these guys last year, although to an
extent maybe I was a little bit too bearish on like Chase Brown.
But like I was pretty out on Zac Evans, you know, went to the,
went to the Rams I think in the 5th rounds.
And it's just like, but you know, is there competition for
the RB2 spot? And I think that's that's that's
a really important part of this. And what is, what are we getting
from a sense from the team in terms of you know where these
guys are going to slot in right away and like it, It seemed it
so far it's been pretty bullish like the the Bucky Irving won.
Like we know there's no competition for the RV.
Two, we know with Khamani Vidal that we could be a little bit
out over our skis, he could be a total 0.
But the upside's so big and also if there's such a chance of like
running away from us like in training camp Vidal's working
with the one with the ones. He's a eighth round pick like
you know I don't want to take him there.
That's that's too high. I I want to get exposure now
understanding there might be there might be outcomes where
like he is straight up undraftable late in the
offseason. If I if I was like nitpicking
like well, he really ought to be in the one 80s not the one 60s.
Like who cares, just get some now it could really run away
from us. I I don't think this is a stand
that we want to take and you can deal with the zero.
I know we are risking A0 with Fidel, but the upside's big
enough where I think it's OK doing that.
Marshawn Lloyd, not a guy that I'm particularly into as a
prospect, kind of looks like a a worst version of Marshawn of
Jalen Wright to me. But he went ahead of Jalen
Wright in the draft, so maybe not.
And everything out of Green Bay has been like, yeah, we don't
know why they signed Josh Jacobs, 'cause we don't plan to
use them like you wouldn't use Josh Jacobs kind of Connor was
into Aaron Jones, actually wish we didn't cut him.
And yeah, I think we're going to use Josh Jacobs in a in a
rotation, 'cause that's how I use my running backs.
And also Marshawn Lloyd is pretty sweet and we plan to
involve him like it's pretty like almost everything you would
want to hear if you're drafting Marshawn Lloyd, he, I was lower
on him at 1st and then like now I'm above ADP because I think
he's going to have a role. We know AJ Dillon stinks.
He looks like a smash. Yeah.
So, yeah, I mean, like, I don't think we at these prices, we
don't want to like overthink it. If there's not that much
competition for the the RB2 roll, if it, you know, looks
like they could immediately slot in there And it whether that's
from what we know about the depth chart or from what the
coaches are saying, then these guys are values at this point in
the draft. I was just clicking back through
prior years again to make sure we hit on all the good names
basically of of good examples 'cause I think it's it's useful
to look at those names and I we had mentioned some in the last
couple years but you go back to 2021, I'm gonna read a list of
names every single one of them. They were 4th through 6th round
picks. Every single one of them had 100
or more touches as a rookie. Michael Carter.
Romandre Stevenson. Chuba Hubbard.
Kenneth Gainwell. Elijah Mitchell, Khalil Herbert,
6 dudes from the same draft class all day three picks, all
had 100 plus touches as rookies like that's not a that's not a
zero. Elijah Mitchell had 200 plus,
couple of them were over 150. That's I think what we're going
to get this year is, yeah, we're going to get that 2001 group
where they're like 6 dudes from day three are going to get 100
plus touches this year and you're going to want exposure to
these guys. Yep.
Yeah. It it's just kind of like the
perfect storm you're getting the discounts coupled with good
landing spots which is just kind of a fun combination.
And again it it sets up really nicely for these guys exist at
like basically every round from once Jonathan Brooks and and
Trey Benson go like you could pick which one of these guys you
wanted every step of the way. And I'm.
I'm doing a dynasty draft with Sean right now.
And we had actually blanking on who we were deciding between.
It was Bucky Irving and one of these other guys that you know,
that I like and I've taken a bunch of times.
And I'm like, it's probably Tracy.
It's probably Tracy. And it was like, all right,
let's take Irving, you know, and it was nice because Sean really
likes Irving. And so it kind of pushed me to
get more of him. I think my point is we are going
to be wrong about a lot of running backs in this class.
But I think what we're all agree in agreement on is that like,
this is fertile ground. This is like as collectively
these running backs are in good spots, they're not expensive and
they have interesting parts of their profile.
Now in order for any one of these guys to really hit, things
are going to have to go right. Like for example, who was the
hit from the the group that Ben just read?
It was Elijah Mitchell, right? Because he happened to be in the
right situation. But Remandre Stephenson the
following year was a much bigger hit and probably the better
running back of the two, but it didn't happen to be in his
rookie season. So like, even if you're right
about which who the best player is of this group, he might not
be the guy to hit this year. I think spread out your bets to
some extent among this group. Yep, for sure.
Let's let's do a draft. What do you guys have a a
contest you want to do? Do you just want to do a BBMA
puppy? There's some other smaller ones
in the lobby. You guys have a preference?
I don't care. Well, Trey in the chat said No.
Mistakes Podcast Man, we're we're drafting Chihuahuas now.
Yeah. We should do a movie of Trey in
the chat says look at the new Rashid Rice report.
I assume that's the the new one about him punching the I I.
I'm nervous that there's another new one.
Is there another new one it? Could be.
Yeah, don't say new with Rashid Rice.
If it was a right, that doesn't mean new.
I'm looking at the ship chasing Discord and no one's posted a
link. I promise you if there was a new
report, the link would have been posted in there.
Yeah, OK. I just wanted to ask.
I figured the chat would have would have let us know too.
By now. I mean there.
Was news today that people are civilians said that they that
they disputed that there was any physical altercation and it was
just shouting. So I don't know if that's the
new part of the report 'cause that did happen today, but that
was like 04 hours ago. Where Pat I Where are you?
Where are you guys? I I I saw Sacrilegious's note in
In the Leg Up Discord and it was more in line with where what I
feel then basically everything I'm seeing on like Twitter and
stuff which is like I mean I I love our buddy Denny Carter but
Denny tweeted the other day it wouldn't like it wouldn't
surprise anyone if Rishi Rice doesn't play another snap in the
NFL. And I was like, I mean yeah, but
like you said about anyone like we don't really know what's
going to come on the off field stuff.
I I still am like no one made this big of a deal about the
Jordan Addison stuff. There was a wreck.
It is on on film there. There's more to the Rashi Rice
thing. Jordan Addison was clocked going
significantly faster than Rashi Rice was going.
Marquis Brown is another dude of the year prior that was speeding
at a a much higher speed than even Rashi Rice was going.
Doesn't matter. But like he he was street racing
and got in a wreck. There was some stuff off the
field, stuff concerns prior to him being drafted, and now I
don't even know why he's in a nightclub right now when he's
already got enough going on. I understand that it's a really
dumb thing to add to what you've already got going on, but it's
maybe just a shouting match with a bouncer or something.
Maybe it was a a physical altercation like he didn't.
The problem is that we're learning stuff.
We're like, all of a sudden we're like, oh, he was off
team's boards. I didn't know that.
Oh, like, you know, stuff's starting to pile up where you're
kind of like, what is the underlying cause of all these
things? Is there like?
Something that's the concern. Could create another thing.
It's May, man. It is May 9th.
Like we need this dude to get to the season at this point.
Like, you know, like I'm getting nervous where, you know, I do
think there's some concern about what how many games does he play
this year? You know, I think it's like like
is week 17 definitely he's playing do they do they install
less plays for him than they would have.
I think we're in that territory now, which is meant what make is
this upside case actually getting affected by this because
the team's gonna kind of build without him to some extent.
Any votes for another pick other than Garrett Wilson at 111 in
this? Trash.
I think this is pretty clear. That is, that's a really funny
question that, to to summarize what Pat is saying, is Rashi
Rice now closer to Cadarius Tony or closer to Travis Kelsey?
Right, right. The chat is also saying Henry
Ruggs is everyone's worry, and I get that.
But like, I guess what I'm saying is the Henry Ruggs thing.
Wild, tragic. Sorry, put a pin in it just for
20 seconds 'cause we got to make a decision here.
Marvin Harrison, Drake London, Jonathan Taylor.
I mean, I think I'm Harrison. I'm.
I'm fine with it. I haven't been taking a lot of
Harrison, but you don't usually get into this is that that was
really tragic and I'm not undermining the the tragedy
there. And it was a terrible decision.
It was, you know, he should not have been speeding and doing
those things. But like the the reason Henry
Ruggs is Henry Ruggs is not that Henry Ruggs is a serial killer.
It's that the outcome was a lot worse and that's that's
horrible. But like what I'm saying is I
guess essentially I I don't think in any group of society
including in the NFL that everyone is a St. right?
Like there's a lot of other dudes that were drafting that
probably have risk of off field issues as well and sometimes we
maybe just don't hear about them.
Sometimes we hear about them and they sound like this person's
really kind of an asshole. But like, it's not.
It doesn't end up being that big of a thing.
Like over the whole Dalvin Cook thing with his ex-girlfriend.
I don't remember what the deal was with that, but like, it
seemed like he was kind of an asshole.
And then it's like, yeah, but like, whatever.
Like, she was also weird and so like, it didn't become a thing
ever, right. My point is I don't think Rashi
Rice is like, like everyone's saying what could come next and
and that does seem like a a legitimate concern.
But in terms of like analyzing his ability to play, the fact of
the matter is the situations we know about aren't like 10 game
suspension situations, at least as far as I'm reading it now, if
he does another thing. Drew Davenport said he thinks
the floor is 6 to 8. The floor?
Yeah, that's what he said. Oh, I thought.
I thought he was saying, is he a different legal one than the
other person I was reading about?
What? Who was saying?
There's another legal person that was like thinking it was
like one to two. This was.
I included a link to this thread yeah in the newsletter.
Yesterday. I still don't believe, however,
that even if both charges are resolved before the season, that
he misses the entire 2024 campaign.
That would be exceedingly unusual, not ruling it out, but
I highly doubt that. I'd say the floor, though, moves
up to six to eight games. The floor this is Drew
Davenport's, the same person that if I'm not mistaken that a
few weeks and maybe like a month ago.
Was making me. Feel like it might only be one
to two games. It changes it, though, because
it's like, what are we suspending him for?
And it's kind of like we're now we're starting to suspend you
for just like kind of who you are, you know?
Like, that's why I think the NFL is like starting to be like, all
right, dude, like, so and this is we like this whole thing is
PR for the NFL, right? That's, that's what it comes
down to. So the perception of this makes
a big difference. And I think it should just look
at the reaction. It shifts the perception when
you have the incident that he had and then you have this
second incident which is just like what is going on and then
you have all these reports coming out, so.
The question then becomes like, let let's say it's six.
You know, the NFL always seems to air on the on the softer side
of those ranges. Then you're in Jameson Williams
territory, right? As far as missing six games,
people were happily taking Jameson Williams around pick 100
in drafts. I mean, Rice is already falling
to pick 70 in some spots. Much better player proven player
than what we've seen from Jameson like you already start
to wander into is. Is the risk already baked in at
that fall price, assuming a six game suspension?
Yeah, So what Sacrilege just posted yesterday in the the
Discord was basically just like let's take a day off on drafting
where she writes let's let him fall.
And I think you could apply that to today as well and just
letting him fall make pushing him every time like you know
you're getting him 3-4 picks past ADP, not enough pushing him
see him he comes back another round.
That's cool you you know I think that's the way to play it
because we don't want to be ride.
This is a player that like I already had a bunch of leg up
subscribers will have already had a bunch of like I thought he
was pretty good value before. I don't want to ride it all the
way down. I want to at this point let let
the freak out kind of run its course and then see where that
lands him. And if it lands in a spot where
I think the risk, you know, the the reward justifies the risk,
then we start taking them again. We are on the clock by rank.
We got Hertz, Jacobs, Kelsey, Lamar.
We do got some wide receivers. Zay, T Pittman.
What do you guys think? I think I'd go Kelsey.
That's who I was looking at or or going one of the receivers
and but yeah, I think Kelsey's a good pick.
Scrap Kelsey and then we'll probably still not.
We're sitting here talking about how Rasheet writes might miss
the whole year. Like, yeah, that's the dude that
is like a threat to Kelsey's like specific type of usage in
that short intermediate range. Right.
Yeah, yeah. I think that's always a good way
to play it. Like when there's uncertainty,
make the room, like force you to make the pick.
Essentially. You guys want to grab tank?
Yeah. Let's do, let's do another share
of tank. Yeah, he's got the Pete's got
the tank on. He's got the tank fever.
He already said it's it's Pete's.
Pete's guy is the tank. Now I was listening to the Roto
World Football Show and the the patent Denny one and Roto Pat
said is Tank Dell even draftable now?
And Denny was like, yes, and he's like what is where should
he go? Like I don't know like what is
the eighth round? Maybe the eighth round would be
OK And I was just sitting here like, I mean Rotopad has no
idea, like he, you know, he doesn't know we're taking, we're
taking Tank Dell on the 4th and are excited about it.
But like you're the guy in that meme in the in the corner, he
doesn't know we're taking Tank Dell 30. 6% exposure to Tank
Dell in the early. 4th But it did make me wonder that like are
we gonna see Tank Dell drop a lot?
Like, is it you know, is like 'cause I know for one like one
guy who's not super into the best balls traits at least is
going to come in and be like fourth round tank Dell, you
know, I think is it is he kind of a guy maybe where we not that
we're wrong. Like I think this is a good
price. I just made the case on bad pros
that that he's a good pick in the fourth round.
And I I do think he is, but it is he like a potential follower
when more casuals come in. Definitely.
Or Diggs and Collins both going in the I think people are gonna
freak out about that too. The the The only reason I would
say maybe not is because when the casuals come in is going to
coincide with either more bullishness or bearishness about
how he's recovering. And I I mostly attribute this
price to ambiguity about his return from injury.
I think if we felt really good, like if he never got injured
last year, I think he would be going like mid third round,
early third round. So.
I I I don't know if I buy that. I mean, what's like why?
Why would Diggs impact Dell but not Nico's?
That's how he be. Well, mostly because Nico was
quite a bit better, like if you look at yards per out run, stuff
like that and. You know that was done with Dell
off the field. OK, That's fair.
Dell. I think Dell was the better of
the two when they were both playing.
Was he? So his yard sprout run finished,
it finished at 2.22, which is good, very good for a rookie.
Sorry. I mean I I said that as like as
as if it wasn't good. Nico was great at 3.10 like he
was like at a on a different plateau.
That's the only reason I would say that.
And then I guess just wait as well like week 12:00-ish.
Week. 13, yeah. Let me pull that out.
I'm gonna, I'm gonna see if I can figure out the years per out
run while they were both playing.
It's it's it's it is a really interesting thing because I mean
we do know like in general of like when you have a little bit
of ambiguity playing it through the cheapest piece is nice and
yet the delta between, you know, very it's not massive enough.
Like if you wanted to say I strongly feel like Diggs is way
better like be like OK, whereas like in what where the the year
Debo was a smash pick. I mean, his gap in ADP from
those other guys was just. I agree with that for sure,
yeah. Yeah, I mean, to me the the
example is actually Ben's guy, Roma Doomsay.
Like that's the one where you're getting a dude in the 6th, 7th
round where, you know, at the end of the season could he be
the top tart? I don't think it's, you know,
out of the realm. Compete at the beginning of the
season as far as I'm concerned. Well, that that would surprise
me, but you. Know it'd be a little
surprising, but you guys haven't seen Roma doonze play it enough.
Yeah, I. It's so funny, 'cause when you
started talking about Roma Doonze, you know, he's like this
four year guy and like there's some holes in his profile and
like, like, you know, some red flags, I I suppose.
But you, you were kind of nervous that I was going to be
out on him. But I love that this is broken
where I'm like, no, we're drafted, Roma dudes.
We're drafted Roma, dudes. All right.
I'm in, man. By the way, Sean's completely
out on him. Yeah, he's he and Shawn of Adam
sometimes you. Weren't right to be nervous.
About testing our friendship on a personal level.
Jaden Reed, Terry Mclaurin, I like, I like both of those guys.
Rashad White, George Kittle, Kenneth Walker.
But I I think Reed or Mclaurin. What do you guys like?
That's where I'm at. I would.
I I would prefer Mclaurin, I think if I was.
Picking one, let's do. It also always nice to have a
Jayden Daniels out. Right.
Especially. With I haven't taken a lot of
Mclaurin, but I think Jayden Daniels could be good for him,
you know, I mean he's not like a superstar, but a late 5th price
on him is cheaper than you know. People used to think he was like
a third round type wide receiver.
Now we get the later in his prime.
No longer, you know, like a a sexy name.
We get the 511 price. It's it's kind of nice.
We have seen like this be a an archetype of kind of fifth round
wide receiver breakout. It's like a guy we're all like,
yeah, he's pretty good. And then like something changes
and we're like, yeah, but he's, I don't know, I'm bored of him.
Yeah, but it was like there was more meat on the bone and he was
able to take it to another level, yeah.
All right, so when through week 12, cause tank Dell was hurt.
In week 13, he only had four routes.
Through week 12, Nico was better 2.56 Dell.
Oh, I forgot to this is slightly.
We're about to pick. They were basically tied.
This pick, so he goes George Kittle.
This could be an anchor here, with Rashad White slipping past
ADP or Kenneth Walker, otherwise reaching for another wide
receiver. I This is where I would take
white or I like Walker. I I would take a doonsay too.
You want to do a doonsay. Yeah, let's do a doomsay.
I mean when we already got the four other names that we feel
really good. About But a doonsay's way more
fun. A doonsay's like a this is a
good bill to put them on to. I don't really love those.
I I would have probably been fine with Walker over Rashad
White. But yeah, I don't really love
taking the, just the. ADP of White but Walker, I Yeah.
Yeah, and the two V twos later, it's like we're going to like a
lot of running backs later. We always do.
You know, like every draft I do, I'm like, I want to take a
running back at every pick. Like there's always good running
backs. Yep.
Yeah, and this is, this is also like another thing to do right
now a a case for like if you really want to take advantage of
some of the rookie risers. And we talked about this a lot
last year where it's like OK you do you do a modified, you know,
zero RV build where you take your running back in the 5th or
6th and then you pretend like that running back pays off as a
first round value and you actually have an anchor running
back build which would allow you to push your second running back
further than you would feel comfortable with a normal fifth
round pick. Like I think you could do that
right now with extreme 0 RB and saying like a couple of the guys
we get in the 9th and 10th round, whether it's a Trey
Benson, Jonathan Brooks, Zach Moss, we treat them like fifth
round running backs. You know where it's like and
then we build around that and just saying we think we're going
to get a huge windfall of value. What can we do within this
structure with that in mind? I like that.
Love it. Yeah, Doonesay there is pretty
fun, especially, you know, kind of giving us that late season
upside as well. Marquis Brown, I guess, makes
slightly more sense from a stacking perspective, but we
don't have Mahomes, Mahomes and like, we're kind of just betting
on Kelsey, you know. So yeah, I like it.
And I especially think what you're saying Pete is true about
like, you know, like Jonathan Brooks.
Like Brooks if he wasn't coming off the torn ACL would probably
be like he would be 1/5 sixth round pick.
And So what you're betting, especially at the end of like if
we can get like a Brooks type and then we can, you know, get
that late season upside, The easiest thing to fill in right
now, the easiest thing is those early season touches.
Those are cheap as hell, yeah. That's a good point.
Rice goes there at six O 8. Something else I I wanted to to
to put a bow on that, which was part of I think Zac Zac
Religious's message as well. It's just this idea that like,
yes, there's a ton of risk. Yes, we should let him fall way
past ADP. All those things you said I
completely agree with. But like he went after Calvin
Ridley in Tennessee right in this draft he went after Marquis
Brown who maybe Marquis Brown now is more interesting.
He's at at a point in the draft at at this point.
I maybe maybe he has to fall further than this even for me to
make this this case. But where I think the upside for
him is quite a bit higher. I mean I again I was just saying
tanked out. Had a really good rookie season
at 2.2 yards per out run like Rishi Rice had that as well.
He was right in that range. He was even higher in the
regular season, a little bit lower after you bring in the
routes from the post season, but did so at a really low A dot,
really high catch rate, good yards after the catch, strong
yards per target, especially when you adjust for that low
depth. There's a lot of stuff about his
profile that's like really bullish if he's actually, if
this is a blip in the road for him, but it's maybe not.
So I'm not, I'm not saying we like go all in on him or
anything, but I do think the the thing that I liked, I just
wanted to emphasize that the Sakhala just said was like you
are you're you're you're drafting one team, you are still
trying to build the best possible team you can.
You don't want him to have like too high of exposure and ruin
too much stuff. But when you start to get these
prices on a player like that, what that can mean for that
build if he's actually not suspended that much, it can mean
a lot for that build. If you're getting like a
whatever, you think he has third round talent in the seventh
round, like that's. That's interesting.
Yeah, especially if you're building, you know, if he's your
wide receiver three, like, I don't think that's gonna work.
But if you're building aggressively with wide receivers
early and tacking him on almost like a rookie, like you're like
he's a rookie again. But like, think about it like
that, right? He's a rookie again, so the
first eight weeks probably don't matter.
But we actually know he's good. I mean that that's about as good
of like a seventh round, eighth round, rookie pick as you can
make. When you said the wide receiver
three thing, I thought you you made the point of the eight
weeks. But I thought you were thinking,
I mean, I would, I would love him if if he was your wide
receiver three and he actually didn't get suspended, you'd be
like, 'cause then you're stacked.
Everywhere else you're like, man, I got a great price on my
wide receiver 3 on top of two good running backs or something,
you know? Kyler with Marv seems great.
We could probably push him around maybe if we want to take
the Montgomery value. Any thoughts?
I probably 5. Seconds.
Yeah, Gretch. Good with Kyler.
My risk aversion would have been to grab Kyler as well.
I thought that was great. But Montgomery is a really
interesting RV one. And so when you said we could
probably push him around, I was. I was open to that because I
trust you. You read Ruben's way better than
I do. But I.
Thought maybe and he only had two wide receivers, so I was
like he's pretty behind the 8 ball.
Yeah, when someone has two wide receivers through five rounds
though, I'm like, I don't know what you're going to do.
We we are not the same you. We are not the.
Same. We are not the same.
I can't even get your head, man. You're a wild card.
You're seriously. That's great.
A lot of goes there. This is a nice value on.
Montgomery. Love that.
So here's the team through eight.
We got Kyler stacked up with Marvin Harrison, just grabbed
our first running back, David Montgomery in the 8th, the full
wide receiver room, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison, Tank
Dell, Terry Mclaurin, Rome at Dunesay, and then Travis Kelsey
at tight end. So pretty nice.
There. Some upside at the onesies Cheap
running back production in Montgomery and five really fun
wide receivers. Jeremy Sam Rice is what we were
playing for JSN to be. And yeah I think that's it's
kind of true. I think the the, the reason to
let him fall right now is that like I kind of want to see like
where he lands, like does he end up in the eighth, does he end up
in the ninth. And then also like just like
the, the whole thing of like are we potentially looking to like
the, the early beginning of a situation that led to his
relationship with the team deteriorating, You know, like if
I would like the, the the rate of incidents should probably
slow down, yeah. That would that would be ideal.
I wish you would stop doing 2. The only other reason the like
when you talk about the team, the only other reason that I'm
like mildly optimistic is the Chiefs have had a lot of stuff.
It goes beyond just like the Tyree kill and stuff.
They've had a lot of stuff and Andy Reid's put up with a lot of
stuff. They still have Canaries Tony on
the roster and they literally had to deactivate this guy for
the Super Bowl. He was so big of a distraction.
They're like, dude, like we can't even bring you to the
Super Bowl. Like, and he's tweeting like the
the day of the game like about how much, how much it was bull
crap that they deactivated in a row what they were telling lies
or whatever it was. And it's like, dude, your
teammates are about to go play the Super Bowl and you're like
trying to make this about you. I mean like how?
And they still have him on the roster.
They I thought they're gonna cut him right away in the offseason.
I mean, like, Andy Reid has a lot of patience, I'll put it
that way. Let me I finally have the the
stats here on the the text and stuff.
So through week 12 so Tank Dell was at 2.24 yards per route run
because he there's four extra routes that he got tacked on in
week week 13. Nico Collins at 2.56.
So that's, you know, decently ahead, but both were really
good. Then the remainder of the
season, Week 13 through the playoffs, Nico Collins had a
4.18 yards per out run. So there I do think.
You're but there was no one else drawing.
Any. Yeah, there was no one else over
that that span. Second highest in yards per out.
One was Brevin Jordan at 2.20 on the limited sample, and then
Dalton Schultz was only 1.67. The next highest wide receiver
was Noah Brown at 0.89. So it just ran through Nico at
the end of the season. And that's probably the most,
like, fragile part of this, right?
Like that. Like that's the part that's not
going to happen again. There's that's.
Not going to happen again, but it speaks favorably for me when
I had some questions. Still, I think a little bit of
questions about Nico and, and just like how much is the system
and all of that, It speaks really favorably that, like, no
one's drawing any coverage from him, They're going to the
postseason. Everyone knows 'cause remember
he had a good postseason game. Like everyone knows, the offense
is going through Nico and he's still putting up those types of
per route production like that. Nico's good, it's good.
Nico's good. Yeah, there's no doubt Nico's
good. All right, we are on the clock
here. Brian Robinson could be a way to
build out. I know you don't like Robinson
so much, but I like I like him here, building out the.
Bet did we do Robinson versus Javonte on the last stream.
That's why I started laughing. Yeah.
We did. We.
Did. Was it Robinson versus Chase
Brown? I I love I think it was Robinson
versus Chase Brown I think we go I I mean we have a chance to do
watch the. Case for Brian Robinson is we're
gonna make a huge Yeah. Washington Stack we we didn't
let Pat do do that last time Wait.
Oh, we take Jayden Daniels on the way around the.
Yeah, we. That's the idea.
This is the shit that I I never build into my builds.
Like, I don't think through the stacks as well as you two.
I love drafting with you guys. Yeah, this is great.
I love it. I mean, I Jane Daniels.
Just think about Brian Robinson a lot 'cause I drafted.
See, I just look at that and I go like, I'm so into Javonte.
I gotta click him there and it's it totally just about volume.
It's he was bad last year, but like Sean Payton used him
despite him being really bad a lot.
Like I'm I, they've added some other backs so maybe maybe
that's not going to carry over, but I.
I'm seeing I like. I like Javonte too, I.
Like Javonte, the the other theme to this is we have a
street cred element Tank Dell, Brian Robinson, guys who have
taken a bullet are who were putting on.
Our many men wish that the. But these dudes are just, like,
just chilling. They're just hanging out for him
off to sit in his car. Exactly.
So we do take Jaden Daniels, so now we got Jaden, Brian Robinson
and Mclaurin and then we got Kyler with Marvin Harrison.
So this is fun in that you're getting the two monster upside
rushing QB profiles that are also the cheapest like all the
other ones go you know in in rounds 3 through 5.
So that's a it's a fun pairing. It is.
It's very fun. Let's see here.
Yeah, so two quarterbacks, 2 running backs, 5 wide receivers,
one tight end there and like we don't miss out like Caleb
Williams had already gone off the board with Rome.
Like you can always do the Aaron Rodgers stuff late.
I didn't see anything else like screaming at us to be like man,
punt QB two a little bit more. Like I I didn't see that pick.
It's a good I I'm, yeah, I'm, I'm finding it like somewhat
hard to to get Daniels, which I I definitely want exposure to
him. This is a really good way to do
it. Like you actually want Mclaurin
and Robinson on the Daniels build.
You wanna say that Daniels is gonna be good.
The offense is gonna be good. And if that's the case, like the
guys that are the incumbents are gonna be, they're gonna be good
as a result. It could literally be what?
Like if Anthony Richardson had stayed healthy the whole year.
You know, you had the Anthony Richardson, Zach Moss and
Michael Pittman. Like all those guys were
feasting. Yes.
In that offense. That's right.
I'm a little more concerned about Austin Ekler than Pat
seems to be. I I guess I would want to hear
his thought on that, but he had to bounce for a SEC.
But. Yeah, we were you and I, we we
talked about that. I think it was was it last week
or two weeks ago. I I think I was with you in
that. Like part of what was exciting
about Brian Robinson last year was he was getting some screen
pass usage and you just got to imagine that that really dries
up. And what if Ekler's, like, has a
rebound year? Like, I don't think.
I think I'm. I don't want to catch the
falling knife on Echolor, but I don't.
We know he's like a workout warrior.
We know he takes good care of himself.
He turns 29 this year, not 31 like it's actually next week.
It looks like he's turning 29 here in May, so it's not like
he's going to play at 28 this whole year.
But his efficiency fell off last year for sure, but he still got
over 200 touches. And the two years prior to that
he led the NFL in touchdowns 2 years in a row.
Like, I know he's on a different team and usually when you see
the fall off like we did in 2023, that's it.
But I'm at least like I don't. I'm not saying I want to draft
Eckler. I don't want to be acquiring him
in like pretty much any format. But it concerns me for Brian
Robinson that Eckler could just be the better back.
Like, you know, potentially show enough excitement and
explosiveness he could. Easily do what Kamara did last
year too, going in a very similar range for different
reasons, albeit, but partly because of that age glyph
concern. I say that as someone who has
not clicked Austin Eckler once though, so I have not put my.
Money where my mouth is. It's more for me, the risk on
Robinson. Where where are you at with
Eckler's impact on Robinson's value, Pat?
I mean, Eckler was not sought after in free agency in a year
where a bunch of other running backs were surprisingly sought
after. I think, you know, the Kamara
thing is basically he survived last year because they're like
we don't have anyone else. We're just going to give you
kind of all of it. Almost like he was sort of Devin
Singletary in kind of a way that they throw to him more, but like
that sort of you're the best option and we trust you, so
you're just going to play every down.
It's tough for Ekler to have that role because he's new to
the team and Brian Robinson has been kind of that guy as an
early down dude. So I think Robinson's role is
probably pretty secure in the the early down to down capacity.
Heckler had a really, really bad success rate last year.
Jerry Judy Dallas backs Zach Charbonne Oh.
My God, Zeke's going this high now.
I would. Probably do Judy or Sharps here.
Thoughts. Yeah, I think.
Is there rookie running backs we can grab after we talked about
them a bunch? Are there other?
Sharp or Dallas back, I think is the move.
I didn't, Yeah, there was a little confusion, so I just
grabbed sharps there. Will you just click on RB real
quick? Who's.
It's kind of like the next pick range will be a nice one,
although I don't mind if we wanted to reach for one are.
You guys in a Dowdle? I've been taking Dowdle a lot.
I yeah, I would actually hammer him at a cheaper ADP than Zeke.
I mean, I think you have to bet on Zeke.
Not really be. I mean, I understand the the
touchdown thesis and he'll get the deference from the Cowboys,
but. The only thing is like, yeah,
and I think, yeah, we'll we'll have some wide receivers we like
if we're comfortable still with just this 5 here.
Who are we bad? Who went?
Dowdle went. Sorry, my bad, my bad, Judy
Dowdle went. So we have to make a a different
decision here. We can do a rookie wide
receiver, Piersall Leggett. That's probably be Leggett.
I don't know. We could also just grab.
Jalen Wright, who probably doesn't come back.
Yeah, I'd be good if that too. We need the running back up
side, I think more than wide receiver.
We'll be able to hit running back up side next pick, OK.
I think it's close. I mean, with five wide receivers
and two of them are rookies, Dave Montgomery, Brian Robinson,
Zach Charbonnet, I think. I think it's pretty close.
I I just think like I feel way better about some of these
rookie running backs coming up than I think I do about like
that next tier of wide receivers.
Yeah, all right. I think that was structurally
fine. There's always fun running back
picks. That's the rule there are.
Yeah, that's true, Yeah. Leggette's not like super fun,
but he's gonna run routes. They took him in the first round
like he's a he's got draft capital.
He's gonna play a lot. He's got a lot of athleticism.
He's a fun. I mean, I I guess I I said he's
not fun And then I make I I actually think he's like really
fun. It's just is Bryce Young good
enough? But like Leggette in the 12th
round, dude like big athletic monster that's gonna run a ton
of routes and he's gonna have some usable weeks from there.
Mm hmm. Yeah, no, he's definitely
intriguing first. I mean, it's about it in all
formats. It's about as cheap as you're
ever going to find a first round wide receiver, which is pretty
interesting given how we're pricing up everybody.
And by the Pierce I do it man Piersol.
Yeah, well, Piersol's. I mean, I like, I like taking
Piersol. Just as like, I don't know
what's going to happen on New Year's Day next year kind of
pick. But I but I know the 49ers are
gonna be an offense. I want a piece of that's like
the whole Yeah, that's it. But people, you can't make the
the routes case I just made for Leggett, you can't make for.
You can't. But no, you can't.
There's like it's a really hard case to make other than like
49ers good January 1st, far away.
And Piersall will like as the summer progresses and no trade
happens, Piersall will get cheaper, right?
Like more non rookie chasers will be in drafts.
They'll do the same thing that they're doing with Jalen Wright.
Don't like this depth chart and and he'll slip a bit.
I think we want to be pretty overweight on Piersall.
If he falls to like the 15th round like that, I think he's
he's. I brought him up, 'cause you
said the the leggette point about a first round receiver
going this late, and I mean Piersall went a pick before
leggette, right? Like.
Although I think in well maybe because I'm in these leagues but
I've been I've I've taken a lot over Piersall in dynasty.
Ricky Pearsall to me is one of the biggest lay UPS in dynasty
that we're going to get first round wide receiver on the
49ers. They just tried to trade the two
guys ahead of him all offseason. Guess what's going to happen
next year. One of them's gone that's how
that's going to go. So you're you're talking about
Ricky Pearsall ascending into an every down roll on the 49ers as
as a previous first round pick. I I think a mid second is not
going to do it if you go to the guy next year.
Hey Ricky Pearsall, I'll give you the two O 5.
He's going to be like go find yourself.
That's that's how that's gonna go.
So if you could take Ricky for yourself to 205 now, I would, I
would do that. Yeah.
All right, here's the squad we got the 2361 Kyler and Jaynet
quarterback Dan Montgomery, Brian Robinson, Zach Chardonnay
at running back. Wide receivers Garrett Wilson,
Marvin Harrison, Junior Tinkdale, Terry Mccloren, Rome
Adoonze, Xavier Leggett and Travis Kelsey.
Still holding it down for us at tight end.
Do we have to? Do we have options at tight end?
What kind of we just got to wait?
Tenon, it's it's a Kelsey or bus team.
That's fine. Well.
There's a very, very obvious pick that I'm.
Just. Talking about other stuff, we
might. Want to?
Do it soon though. Yeah, it's just if there's
anything before the wrap here. So we're, yeah, there goes
bedsit it would pick ahead of us.
Yeah, I was going to. No.
Yes. Yeah.
Oh no, it was. It was here or bus, but he
didn't even. Get here.
I mean, not pushing him around the wrap is what I meant.
Oh yeah. About.
The guys, guys, I think. I think it's an answer here.
Yeah, it's Fidel. We should take by OK all.
Right, let's do it. Get some touches.
Yeah. Let's get some upside, get some
late season upside. We talked about how we're going
to find a dude who's who's going to unlock this team.
I mean, he's. Can we draft one guy who runs
faster than a four 640? No, because Bucky Irving's are
not expected. He does not run faster than.
That, yes, the the Kyle Pitts drafter, of course, drafting Ben
Sinnett. Man.
Yeah, I didn't know he was like. Going that high, when you said
the obvious PIC thing, I was like, Oh yeah, that makes
perfect sense. Bucky.
Yeah, or Musgrave if you want to hit tight end a different way
right now. I'm not.
I'm not a post. I I go Bucky, we'll talk about
hitting these these. Rookie.
Yeah, yeah, I like it. We'll keep pushing.
Tight end too. We have Kelsey.
Jacquards come on down. That's where I draw the line.
Pat already had to pull the car over on the highway and let his
family know what happened with it.
Pete, you you teased the South American wood thing, Pat.
I really enjoyed reading that. That was a that was a fun story
to learn about. Yeah, thanks guys.
Yeah, it's funny. It was a fun article to write
because I was like, first of all, I mean, you're like, you
know, 500 words deep. And I'm still talking about the
rainforest. So I thought I enjoyed the the
natural confusion that would have saved.
I had someone go, I had to triple check.
I was reading the right newsletter.
Oh. But also it just sounds like.
And by the way, I'm referencing an article it's Bri on Legendary
upside. Check it out.
I'm gonna check it out. The Tree of Jacquard.
But it's a it's a story about this, this real tree they found
in the rainforest of Central America in 1965 that they
chopped down wrong and fell into a ravine for a decade.
And then, like someone went and checked it out and like trucked
it out and it became this extremely rare tonewood that is
now like basically the the rarest tonewood on earth.
So obviously, naturally, I compared it to an 18th round
hit. The the had you, were you
familiar with this story previously or were you stumbling
upon this more recently and then was like, wow, I see the
similarities. It kind of started with So I was
I've been kind of poking around looking at guitars and you know,
you look at guitars and then you're like, what's the like
kind of the better version of this was it?
And then I kind of was like, Oh my God, like you could actually
cause the crazy thing is you can order like a new guitar.
This tree was huge, just again found in the 1965, didn't even
start getting used to make guitars until the 80s, but
that's the 80s. They're making guitar with one
tree, but they're still like fresh, you know, virgin like
lumber of this available or whatever it's called.
And you today could order a new guitar that had this wood is the
back and sides. There's that much of it.
So you know, I'm kind of poking around just guys.
I didn't do this, by the way. I didn't.
I didn't order it. I was like, I won't take care of
this enough. I I can't.
I can't order a tree and then have it get a crack.
Oh, I definitely thought you ordered the tree.
No, no, I didn't. I didn't order the tree.
I literally was like this is like almost like like it's
almost like immoral to to order it and then not take care of it
properly. Like I I won't, I won't take
care of it well enough. You need to like have this thing
in a humidified room and whatnot.
But anyway, so that was kind of, you know, I'm poking around and
looking at looking at fun, way too expensive guitars.
And then sacrilegious wrote his article on Jacquard Similarity
And I was basically like, the way I'm thinking through player
stands is that, like, look, if I think I have this awesome dude,
like I still want to take him a ton.
But then I'm more thinking about how do I diversify around that
guy and have a portfolio of teams around kind of my Breeze
Hall stand from last year. Like, the thing I regret about
that is not that I took way, way too much Breeze Hall.
I probably didn't take enough. The thing I regret is that I
didn't do a good enough job. I did an OK job, but not a good
enough job of diversifying around.
So I have a lot of different types of Breeze Hall teams
because I'm not as confident about what things are going to
bubble up around Hall to help him get there in the final.
I was probably a little too concentrated with my secondary
bets with that, and that's basically what the whole
article. 'S about Titans went crazy off
the board. We could make this the theme of
the show with Tyrone Tracy here. I think it's our first athletic
running back. Exactly, I said.
I have one. Let's do it.
We got a we got a a guy with a little bit of juice.
I mean if we want to like look down the road at tight end, I
mean I do like Noah fan, I guess.
Yeah, I like Fan a lot. I was going to suggest him as
the pick coming back potentially right here, like in two picks.
Are we, are we on the? Clock.
Sorry, I I keep forgetting you guys can't see up there.
Yeah, we're on the clock. You good with Noah Fan?
Yeah, sacrilegious. Noah Fan Speaking of
sacrilegious. He's gonna run a career higher
routes. I mean that's it's it's a little
tricky 'cause there's three good receivers ahead of him.
But I mean, unless you think JS NS gonna be a total bust, then
you're should be even more in on fan.
But even as like the fourth guy in the passing, it's like a
Dalton Schultz type bet at this point, you know what I mean?
Like. You know, I'm, I'm hesitant to
say this because I don't need sacrilege to be any more bullish
on know if Anthony is. But is it a little?
Is it a little? David and Joku like his career
arc. Remember when Joku got buried
and he was kind of just like in a split role And then they're
like, no, no, we we're gonna use him now finally, that he's like
27 years old, we decided it's time to using Joku.
And then they did. It's funny how that perception
works, right? Because when he was drafted, it
was like, this isn't the next athletic freak tight in.
All caps, Yes, that's what I've been saying.
Why did I keep that thought to myself?
But because the fantasy production we haven't ever seen
like a true breakout or whatever he went, his connotation in
Drafter's mind is bland. It's like more like, you know
Will Disley, not, you know, David Najoku because he hasn't
been featured. But like, so chaos, Toffee says.
What about Jared Cook as a, you know, late career breakout?
Eric Hebron had that too. But they changed teams and it's
so it's like, weird that he's like, back in Seattle, it's
basically the same situation, except he probably runs more
routes now that Disley's gone and stuff.
But like, you're like, well, they don't really give a shit
about him. But like, the Browns did this.
The Browns were like, we like Austin Hooper more than you for
some reason. And then two years later, they
were like, actually you're we care about you now.
And I don't know why it's happened, but he is still in
Seattle. But they went with a different
offense now, a new coordinator, a different scheme.
And I mean I think that the new, I mean new head coach a whole,
you know, I mean like they could come in and be like yeah and and
I think they kind of already did when they let Disley and Colby
Parkinson walk. They're like we don't see tight
end the way the last regime saw tight end the last regime in
Seattle was like Will Disley. We're paying him a lot of money
like every year to just like make sure that we have a tight
end 2 for some reason which always limited fans routes.
But like this is now a situation where they could for the first
time actually be the sole tight end and pretty nice.
He's never bet he wasn't even that in Denver.
He I mean he never has any. I mean he has some decent per
route stuff, but it's mostly earlier in his career.
The one, the one concern would be that last year his yards per
out run was a career low. So it's like well, is he getting
worse as he gets older? But I mean the whole body of
work is still OK. I mean it's it's competent.
It's not bad. Yeah, the flip side to this is
that he's Herb Smith. He he's got, he's been at better
target earning than Herb Smith for the majority of his career.
Yeah, Herb Smith was like a 15% target sprout run guy.
No offence wasn't was down to 13% last year but the first four
years of his career 16 + 3 years in a row was 18 plus.
Like he's actually shown like some that's like decent for a
tight end. Those are good target rate per,
you know, per route numbers. Can I interest you guys in a QB
three stacked up with our first round pick at price 2O350 plus
picks past ATP? Nobody's drafted Aaron Rodgers.
Nobody's. Drafted.
Aaron Yeah, fuck it. Let's take him.
Yeah, we got 2 mobile quarterbacks.
Either of those guys could get banged up and miss some time,
and we need Rodgers to help us. We're.
Just Rodgers has a spike week that's tied to Garrett that gets
us through. Yeah.
Yeah, that. I was just thinking like we
could get Daniels or Kyler through low owned with by adding
Rogers. At this point, that's another.
Thing that. That's another.
Yeah. Let's do it.
Yeah. OK, and then we can figure out
what we want to do. Running back or wide receiver.
We have 6 wide receivers, 6 running backs.
Jalen McMillan. Is dorch here?
Dorch. Went I I saw that I I know.
He's perfect for this shit. Yep.
Do we? We don't have a good stack ad in
here. Dotson and those guys are all
gone. McCaffrey is McCaffrey.
Here Alan Lazard. Mccaffrey's long gone, yeah.
Yeah, McMillan or or Rondell more I think are the ones that I
would. All right, we'll go with
McMillan. Grab another rookie here and we
had taken Bucky. Get a pair of bucks here.
Yeah, the Yeah, so Rogers. I mean, I've seen Rogers fall.
You know, 2025 picks. I haven't seen him fall 56
picks. That's pretty crazy.
All right. This team's in the books. 3672
build. Kyler, Jayden Daniels and Aaron
Rodgers. 6 running backs, 0 RB room.
David Montgomery, Bryan Robinson Junior Zach Charbonnet.
Kamani Vidal, Bucky Irving, Tyrone Tracy.
Just realized that. Noah Phant.
Zach Sharp's little pairing there as well.
Wide receivers Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison, Junior Tank
Del, Terry Maclaurin, Roma doonese Xavier Leggett and Jalen
McMillan. Tight end Travis Kelsey and Noah
Fan. Very young at at wide receiver,
but I think this team is pretty fun.
It is fun. We got the the rookie.
There's a theme of the show tonight.
We got, we got those rookie running backs.
We used it to unlock an early tight end, pick some some some
wide receiver firepower on the early rounds.
It's a. It's a coherent and pretty fun
build. Yeah.
We got a Pete last week you were asking for people to throw up
ship chasing at work. We got a video of they weren't
able to get ship chasing up or a a a picture on Twitter.
They weren't able to get ship chasing up, but they got a a row
Joe because of restrictions he couldn't get ship chasing but he
he went ahead and threw some clips up over Ojo.
Yes. That's way.
Better. 98 yards of the House of the past, yes.
This is so good. Let me get this here so shout
out to to Vince here. I couldn't pull up ship chasing
at work due to restrictions, but I was able to grind some tape.
One of the best running backs you can see.
Like, I mean, this is the most corporate America conference
room I've ever seen, and it is Ronald Jones.
It's about to take it. To the house 98 Love it.
To the fucking house. Shout out Vince, DM me your
e-mail and I'll get you a ship chasing gift card here.
Well done 1st 1st Thursday afternoon show in the books.
While we were on the air I got a message from Leone.
He said if you guys ever want a fourth for ship chasing,
Thursday at 3:00 PM Eastern is my jam.
So we might be opening up a different Ave. for possible
guests, not be it at at night. We should take advantage of that
'cause we're going back tonight. This is just a little summer
summer vacation for us to go on during the day.
Yeah, do some dad life. Like I said, once we get to
August, the marquee draft streams, ship cast in season,
all that good stuff. We'll be back at night, but
enjoying freeing up our evenings here.
Definitely need to check out Pat's article about the trees
and also goad him into buying one of these guitars telling me
he doesn't have enough money. He's.
Too don't go, please don't goad me into by the.
Way pat. The only thing that would be
better if you doing like an update to the Rojo parody song
but singing out like first trying your portfolio with a
fucking you know one of the whatever that tree would is
called I. Mean.
It's called the tree. That's how good.
You gotta buy the. Tree.
Pat, what's the point of being rich if you can't have things
that other people can't have? Like, I mean like you're gonna
this is like the most famous tree ever.
Outside a kitchen's tree, it is. It is easily.
Don't think it didn't cross my mind.
Hey, got a new guitar. It's it's the rarest wood I
could find on the entire planet. I know we just had a kid, but
this is an investment. I had to just go ahead and buy
guitar, the rarest tonewood on the earth.
The other thing I'm picturing is like the way you know DFS guys
will buy the jersey of a player on their team on their winning
team is like Pat. You get this guitar, but you put
like little decals or of like Breece Hall and then all the
players you diversified around him snickered on to it and hang
it over your background. Decals on this.
Wood little breeze hall. That's.
What I'm saying you can't put. Desecrated the tree.
What was the price you showed the actual screenshot from the
like where you could buy it and it was it was 5 figures.
Yeah, no, it's $25,000 on, $26,000 on sale with $7000 off.
The other thing is I play left-handed, so I would, in
order to get one of these guitars, I'd have to like
special order it from. So that's it would be more
expensive than that. Do a pussy.
We're all thinking it. Gretch, everyone needs to check
out your new post on stealing signals.
Anything else in your guitar neck of the woods?
No, I I don't know anything about guitars.
I only get my guitar information.
We got Jeff Flake. Jeff Flake It says Pinball
Wizard was recorded with this guitar and I'll now use it to
play a song about Cadillac Williams 2006, Week 14.
Oh man, yeah, Brittany will be legendarily upset.
By the. Legendary Downside and Legendary
Upset. Sorry, anything else we're
asking for you? No stealing bananas.
Yeah, more stuff coming at at stealing signals.
Same I. Do I do have some some plugs to
say before we go check out the podcast we did with Shady
Advice. Shady Advice, joined the
legendary Upside team, which I think it's very exciting
development for the site. And then we we do still have
some of the $50 credits left. If you're on the fence of
whether or not to sign up for the yearly subscription, you can
get a $50 hundred dollar credit. Also, renewal credits went out
first batch went out if you are. If you signed up last year, you
renew your subscription 25 dollar $100 credit for for you
and just need your username. So if you got the 50 last year,
I have your username, you're just going to get it
automatically. Beautiful for me.
If you want to check out that video reverse engineering a
draft, I actually did a Jaden Daniels backdoor double stack
with that one. I thought that was a fun
exercise over on the Deposit Kingdom channel.
And then tomorrow morning I'm dropping the update to the week
17 as all that matters have been in the lab all this week
wrapping my head around the new price structure and how that
could potentially impact which weeks we want to optimize for
more than others. So I think you guys will enjoy
that. That'll be on the Deposit
Kingdom YouTube channel. In the morning.
All right guys. Thank you for hanging out on
this afternoon, throwing us on at your your office conference
rooms, all of that good stuff for Ben, for Pat, I'm Pete.
We'll see you guys next time on ship chasing.