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Oh. 
Week 14 is behind us and happy 

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National Best Ball Team 
Advancement Day. 

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To those who celebrate, this is 
stat chasing Pat Fryer Helmo. 

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This is why This is why I'm Hot 
Anita Handjob. 

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Fix your sight. 
Jamar. 

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And also play Chase. 
You can't handle the heat. 

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See, it looks like we're finally
at this point. 

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You're right. 
We've been waiting all year for 

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this, Draco. 
The fantasy play offs are 

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finally here. 
Everyone's counting up and 

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tabulating all their advancing 
teams. 

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You're back from Ireland. 
Did you bring back a little luck

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of the Irish to your advance 
rate? 

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Fuck off. 
So yeah, obviously Week 15 is is

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what it's all about. 
Like that's that's that's when 

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everybody figures out did you 
play good or did you not play 

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good with no more information to
come And then yeah we figure out

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who who who had the highest 
advance rates and and and those 

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are the best players. 
Yep. 

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So obviously that that week 14 
is is one event that that's 

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happened recently you had 
another event over the weekend, 

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you had you had a trip of your 
own. 

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I I did, yeah. 
You're you're actually talking 

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to the runner. 
Runner up of the dog bowl. 

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I don't. 
They don't give, you know like 

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fancy trophies or anything for 
that. 

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But I did take all of the swag I
could pack in my suitcase. 

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So shout out to Underdog for 
this very comfy T-shirt that I'm

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wearing to represent the brand. 
Honestly, I I feel like I need 

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to give them a little plug 
because. 

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So I I went to the DraftKings 
live final at King of the Beach 

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as a guest with J. 
Fresh a couple weeks ago, also 

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in Miami. 
That one felt a lot more like a 

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business event, if that makes 
sense. 

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It was like in a hotel 
conference room, very like it 

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felt like something I would go 
to for my work. 

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You know, people were nice. 
Like, it definitely was not as 

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communal and social as the 
underdog 1. 

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It was cordial. 
Yeah, yeah, certainly. 

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Like really, really fun event, 
really cool. 

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The underdog event was you could
tell that they focused on making

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the event the most fun, like 
community based experience they 

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could. 
The venue was really cool. 

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It was it was a really cool 
little sports bar, had good 

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food, open bar. 
Yeah, it's definitely a good 

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time there. 
I just, I thought the coolest 

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thing was at the DraftKings 
event, 'cause like when your 

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teams got dusted, like a lot of 
people just left and the the 

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sweat was for sure not communal.
It was like everyone had their 

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own little, you know, pod. 
It was them and their guests or 

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or maybe someone they knew and 
they're sweating their own teams

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and then once they were dead, 
they're out of there. 

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But at the the Underdog Dog Bowl
Live final, it was like even 

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people who were kind of dusted 
and not like, not live for, you 

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know, a high finish. 
We're still out there sweating 

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like sweating their own climb up
the ladder, sweating other 

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people's teams. 
It was a really fun, communal 

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event. 
And I I mean, people always say 

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like, oh, the community that we 
have here is like, that's what's

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really good about it. 
But like, honestly, it is. 

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It was a really fun time to meet
everyone in person and just get 

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to hang out. 
I was surprised how many people 

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there were not in the Deposit 
Kingdom Discord. 

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I mean it was basically an 
unofficial deposit Kingdom meet 

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up. 
But there were like three or 

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four people I talked to who like
they knew me from stat chasing, 

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but they were like, Oh yeah, I'm
not in the Discord. 

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It's like you need to fix that. 
Like, so if if you're one of 

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those people and you're here 
watching stat chasing but you're

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not in the Deposit Kingdom 
Discord, let me just give a 

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little brief plug for the 
Discord. 

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So when you're on Twitter as a 
form of social media, it's kind 

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of like you're screaming into 
the void and then every once in 

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a while the worst people you 
could imagine show up to 

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interact with you. 
And that's why I'm not a huge 

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fan of Twitter, but Discord is 
way more like tight knit 

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community base. 
It's kind of like being in a 

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social club. 
And so the Deposit Kingdom 

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Discord is really nice, 'cause 
everyone there has shared 

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interests. 
You know, we're all sickos that 

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are way too into fantasy 
football and drafting and 

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basketball and lots of lots of 
really great people there 

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sharing tools or sharing advice 
or giving away Alpha. 

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So if you're not in the Discord,
I would highly encourage you to 

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download Discord, get in the 
Deposit Kingdom channel. 

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I think we probably got a link 
for that in the show description

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or something like that. 
But anyway, that's my. 

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Plug there is a Yeah there is 
definitely a link to the discord

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in the in the show description. 
So yeah, I remember a year ago 

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and shipped when I when I went 
on ship chasing they said yeah, 

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here, here's the guys from the, 
from the the what you call it 

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the sister channel welcome to 
the flagship. 

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And now here we are saying 
we're, we're saying if you don't

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know about these guys you should
you should check them out. 

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Yeah, I I was just surprised 
that there were people that 

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watched the shows and and 
weren't in the Discord. 

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But I I get it. 
Like, you know, some people, 

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Discord just might not be their 
thing, or they hadn't stumbled 

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across it yet, so wanted to. 
Right. 

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It's a technical, logical lead 
for some people that is highly 

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worthwhile. 
Yeah, I I would definitely 

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agree. 
Have have made lots of cool 

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friendships through the Discord.
Really looking forward to the 

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next meet up that we get to 
have, whether that's another 

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live event or drafting in Vegas 
for next year's best ball teams.

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Yeah, for sure, for sure. 
So yeah, let me let me add our 

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our first chart. 
So obviously we it's it's week 

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15, we don't we've been doing 
this for almost four months now.

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But quick a quick description of
the chart. 

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We've got adjusted yards per 
tent which is like yards per 

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tent but it rewards touchdowns, 
pointers, interceptions. 

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We've got touchdown rate on the 
vertical axis and then the size 

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of the bubble corresponds to 
rushing yards per game. 

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And then the other sort of heavy
caveat that we give with this 

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chart is that it's an efficiency
based chart. 

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And the the sort of like idea 
behind that was that a lot of 

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quarterback scoring is down to 
good efficiency and or say 

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passing efficiency and rushing 
production because you have a 

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quarterback, he throws 3 
touchdowns, very efficient, lots

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of points. 
But I I guess what what we've 

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sort of like that we've sort of 
come into is that we we have 

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seen quarterbacks who are 
efficient but they don't have a 

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lot of past attempts. 
And so that that that is, I 

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guess that is the sort of like 
caution against somebody like 

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Russell Wilson who has been 
efficient but not enough 

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attempts to truly be a fantasy 
star. 

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He he he's been he's been OK but
he he he not as not as good as 

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as as sort of this chart would 
suggest. 

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And then the other thing worth 
pointing out is so obviously 

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most of the season is Dawn and I
guess we we do want to be able 

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to help people with their start 
set decisions as I I guess where

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possible in sort of high stakes 
and FFPC stuff. 

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But the main, the main, the main
actionable thing that we can do 

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on this show is the best ball. 
Actually basketball is the 

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playoff basketball stuff. 
And so that's that's going to be

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our heavy focus from from here 
on now. 

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Yeah, definitely. 
We'll we'll put a little bit 

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more of a playoff basketball 
spin. 

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Especially Underdog just dropped
their Gauntlet last week and 

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they dropped the Mitten and the 
Little Mitten and the Big Mitten

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this week. 
So those are all really awesome 

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contests. 
Some of my favorite fantasy 

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football formats at the play. 
So if you haven't dipped your 

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toe into that format yet, I 
would highly recommend it. 

145
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It will almost certainly be 
your, if not your, most 

146
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profitable. 
It will definitely be the format

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where you have the largest edge 
because all it takes is a little

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bit of education and you will 
immediately be be better than a 

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large amount of the field. 
There's a lot of people that 

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don't understand the format. 
And the brutal thing about the 

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format if you don't understand 
is you can preclude yourself 

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from even being able to win the 
the top prizes if you don't know

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what is going on. 
And so that's why I really like 

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the game. 
If you don't really understand 

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the strategy behind it, you're 
basically drawing dead from the 

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get go. 
So we we do cover that over at 

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Leg Up. 
We've put out a free podcast 

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00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:05,000
over on the Leg Up YouTube 
channel and the Leg Up podcast 

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feed. 
We just dropped our first 

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premium podcast on the Playoff 
Contest this week as well, and 

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we are going to have another one
coming later this week. 

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And not to. 
Let's see. 

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I don't know if Pat's going to 
be mad at me for teasing this 

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here too. 
But we do have a tool that we're

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releasing that we've been 
testing pretty rigorously all 

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week, just dialing it in, making
sure it's good. 

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And and really the goal of it is
to have it be like Pat and I are

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00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,000
sitting right next to you 
helping you draft and we're 

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00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:42,080
trying to take away a lot of the
more complex strategy points and

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what you'd have to think through
on the fly. 

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And we're just trying to present
to you much simpler decisions 

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where you're able to build out 
really strong teams. 

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So definitely looking forward to
sharing that but to to get to 

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00:10:54,680 --> 00:10:58,880
the chart here I thought Draco's
point about the fact that we 

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00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:03,360
don't have passing volume on 
this reflected on this chart is 

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00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:07,960
really important. 
A really good way to illustrate 

177
00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:11,360
that is for example you know of 
course you're happy starting 

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00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:15,320
Brock Purdy in fantasy right? 
He's he's been extremely 

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00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:17,600
efficient. 
Offense is one of the best in 

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the league. 
Incredible weapons. 

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00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:23,080
Like you're, you know, Brock 
Purdy scoring 3 touchdowns in a 

182
00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:27,160
week Doesn't even seem, it 
doesn't even really even seem 

183
00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:29,640
like a ceiling outcome anymore. 
It's like, yeah, 3 touchdowns. 

184
00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:32,840
That's about right for for Brock
Purdy, The thing is. 

185
00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:37,280
Yeah. 
The The thing is the the 49ers 

186
00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:40,800
don't throw the ball as often as
other teams do. 

187
00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:44,000
And so, for example, if you look
at Dak Prescott just based on 

188
00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:46,760
this chart, you would think, oh,
Brock Purdy might be better than

189
00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:50,120
Dak Prescott for fantasy. 
But The thing is, the Cowboys 

190
00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:53,360
pass the ball like like there's 
no tomorrow. 

191
00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:57,560
And so Dak is almost as 
efficient as Brock Purdy, but 

192
00:11:57,560 --> 00:12:02,400
he's doing it with so much more 
volume that he's going to be a 

193
00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:04,400
little bit more desirable for 
fantasy. 

194
00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:06,640
Not a ton. 
They're both great picks, right?

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00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:11,120
But that's just kind of what you
have to consider since volume 

196
00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:13,680
isn't being reflected on this 
chart. 

197
00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:19,040
And so to to kind of transition 
this into, we'll do our first 

198
00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:21,200
little playoff best ball spin 
here. 

199
00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:25,400
The quarterback is a really 
important position in playoff 

200
00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:28,480
best ball and it's really 
because you don't want to 

201
00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:31,200
allocate a ton of capital to it.
So you want to make the 

202
00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:33,920
quarterback or quarterbacks you 
pick really count. 

203
00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:38,040
And so that means that the pool 
of viable quarterbacks is pretty

204
00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:40,840
limited. 
So like for example, I've been 

205
00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:46,040
drafting a lot today and 
yesterday and like Tua is one of

206
00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:48,480
the worst quarterbacks that I'm 
happy to get. 

207
00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:50,880
And I that that seems kind of 
weird. 

208
00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:53,240
You're like, oh, Tua's been 
great and he's attached to 

209
00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:56,320
Tyreek and we'll we'll certainly
get into the Tyreek injury stuff

210
00:12:56,320 --> 00:12:59,360
later. 
But Tua is kind of one of the 

211
00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:01,840
last stops on the train that I 
feel good about. 

212
00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:06,640
And so really it's kind of a a 
difficult thing to wrap your 

213
00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:08,960
head around where there's so few
quarterbacks that are really 

214
00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:13,840
viable to have you be live for 
the the top prizes in this 

215
00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:22,320
playoff format. 
I thought that was I think 

216
00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:28,160
that's interesting. 
So I guess my I, I I haven't 

217
00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:32,240
played Neri as much as you and 
and so I and I'm guessing other 

218
00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:35,960
people share this opinion that 
when you when you sort of cramp 

219
00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:41,640
down the number of positions 
that just by virtue of pure 

220
00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:43,880
number of points that 
quarterbacks score. 

221
00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:48,520
I I would I would have taught 
that it's actually a very 

222
00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:54,320
important position that way when
you get your 3040 points that 

223
00:13:55,480 --> 00:14:00,360
it's that it absolutely pays off
a high cost. 

224
00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:02,800
Are are are you saying that's 
not the case? 

225
00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:08,320
No, no, it quarterback is a very
important position, but there's 

226
00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:12,640
weird dynamics surrounding it 
where the diminishing returns 

227
00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:15,560
you get from quarterback, from 
your first quarterback to your 

228
00:14:15,560 --> 00:14:18,000
second quarterback, are pretty 
substantial. 

229
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And so you need to be really 
thoughtful about when you're 

230
00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:24,800
taking a second quarterback 
versus when you're only doing 

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00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:29,600
one quarterback and some of this
stuff I'll you know the the 

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deeper strategy dive stuff. 
I know not ever in here is going

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to play playoff basketball. 
So we'll we'll keep that for the

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the leg up podcast but 
definitely want to educate 

235
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people who are interested in 
playing and and get them at 

236
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least away from some of the 
worst habits you can have. 

237
00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:49,560
So for example, I have seen some
people in Discord channels 

238
00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:53,160
talking about 3 quarterback 
builds or Oh well, I built this 

239
00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:56,320
three quarterback team and it's 
possible for it to win, 'cause 

240
00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:59,320
this could happen and this could
happen, and that's a path, so it

241
00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:01,400
can win. 
And it doesn't matter that it's 

242
00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:03,240
thin. 
All you need is a team that can 

243
00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:06,520
win, to which I would say you're
a donkey. 

244
00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:09,240
Don't do that. 
Don't draft 3 quarterback teams.

245
00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:14,960
It's not good. 
So yeah, just you shouldn't be 

246
00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:17,080
doing that. 
If you if you want to do it, you

247
00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:19,480
know, and donate money to the 
rest of the people in the 

248
00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:23,640
contest, you definitely can. 
But you really don't ever want 

249
00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:25,440
to be taking more than two 
quarterbacks. 

250
00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:28,920
So that's that's just kind of a 
a good rule of thumb. 

251
00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:32,440
So just to add some new ones, 
we've obviously got our cover 

252
00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:37,360
boy, Lamar Jackson and and and 
to me, he's definitely in a 

253
00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:39,160
league quarterback. 
We've been pounding the table 

254
00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:44,240
from all season and but one one 
of the things that I I'm I'm 

255
00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:48,080
looking at some of the the the 
available data for playoff best 

256
00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:52,000
ball. 
And I'm sort of surprised that 

257
00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:56,520
if you look at a lot of the 
models, the Ravens are one of 

258
00:15:56,520 --> 00:15:58,680
the highest they've got, the 
highest, one of the highest 

259
00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:02,480
probabilities of making the 
playoffs of winning the Super 

260
00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:06,560
Bowl. 
And their quarterback Lumari 

261
00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:12,000
Jackson he has an ADP on 
underdog right now 12.1. 

262
00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:16,320
And of any of any of the teams 
with that kind of like high 

263
00:16:16,640 --> 00:16:26,320
Super Bowl odds that's like by 
far by far one of the later ADPS

264
00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:35,320
for quarterback or or or or for 
first position for first team 

265
00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:39,440
player taken and and and I guess
is, is that sort of an example 

266
00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:45,800
of of of maybe and even even 
though that the price is 

267
00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:52,560
somewhat high the relative 
relative to the elites and the 

268
00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:56,840
team, the team Super Bowl 
probabilities, it's still good 

269
00:16:57,920 --> 00:16:59,720
or have I just read that 
completely wrong. 

270
00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:05,280
No, what I So what I would say 
about Lamar is the Ravens as a 

271
00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:09,400
whole as a team were one of the 
most mispriced teams in the 

272
00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,520
first week when the contest 
opened right away. 

273
00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:14,280
So I tried to get as much 
exposure to the Ravens as I 

274
00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:18,400
possibly could. 
Now with the Ravens looking like

275
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:22,119
they're you know, they're really
control their own destiny as far

276
00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:28,840
as if they get the buy or not. 
So when teams get a lot of when 

277
00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:31,680
the when the picture becomes 
more clear around which teams 

278
00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:35,680
are getting the buy sometimes 
that can actually depress a a 

279
00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:37,840
price just a little bit not a 
ton. 

280
00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:41,120
You know there's still a high 
degree of confidence in that 

281
00:17:41,120 --> 00:17:44,080
that team is a a Super Bowl 
favorite or one of the the 

282
00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:47,480
stronger probabilities to make 
the Super Bowl which makes them 

283
00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:50,400
a very desirable pick. 
But the buy definitely makes it 

284
00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:54,360
a little bit more difficult to 
get that team through the first 

285
00:17:54,360 --> 00:17:59,720
round and so I I do think Lamar 
is probably depressed further 

286
00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:03,600
than he should be and the rest 
of the Ravens are are also 

287
00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:05,360
depressed further than they 
should be. 

288
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:07,200
So I've been hammering that a 
lot. 

289
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:13,000
I really do like the Ravens as a
pick and then there's kind of a 

290
00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:16,360
it's really more of a a game 
theory and risk tolerance 

291
00:18:16,360 --> 00:18:19,760
approach to what you should be 
doing around quarterbacks like 

292
00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:22,920
Lamar and Purdy who right now 
those are the two teams that are

293
00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:25,200
the favourites to get the buy in
their conferences. 

294
00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:30,480
Some people will say that you 
should Right now, while there's 

295
00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:35,240
uncertainty, just draft only one
quarterback teams pretend none 

296
00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:37,440
of the quarterbacks that you 
draft get the buy. 

297
00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:40,880
So that in the scenarios that 
play out where the 49ers 

298
00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:43,480
actually don't get the buy or 
the Ravens don't get the buy, 

299
00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:47,680
those one QB teams you've 
drafted with Brock Purdy or with

300
00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:52,600
Lamar Jackson all of a sudden 
are really strong relative to 

301
00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:56,200
the other two quarterback 
variants that the field might 

302
00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:59,560
have been drafting at the same 
time because they were trying to

303
00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:04,280
protect their team in the event 
that the Ravens or the 49ers got

304
00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:07,160
the buy. 
And so I certainly think that's 

305
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:10,320
viable. 
The way that I do it is I'll 

306
00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:14,920
draft someone, quarterback 
versions of those strong buy 

307
00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:21,080
favorites and in certain lobbies
where I'll get falling value on 

308
00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:24,880
what I think are good second 
quarterbacks to take to help try

309
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:26,280
and get me through that bye 
week. 

310
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:29,560
That's when I'll make the 
decision to say this is going to

311
00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:33,800
be a build where I do draft in 
the scenario that the Ravens get

312
00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:35,480
to buy. 
And so I'm going to take Lamar 

313
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:38,560
with a second QB or I'm going to
take Purdy with a second QB. 

314
00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:42,000
So that's a little bit of the, 
the thought process you want to 

315
00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:45,520
be going through when you're 
determining, you know, do I take

316
00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:50,000
a second quarterback or not? 
Got it and and and Speaking of 

317
00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:56,520
second quarterbacks and 
particular particularly with the

318
00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:00,720
the teams where the your first 
quarterback you're pretty 

319
00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:06,640
confident that they will get the
buy or reasonably sure and one 

320
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:11,600
of the things I wondered about 
was at this point with the with 

321
00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:15,320
the. 
The more marginal playoff hopes 

322
00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:22,040
still being very much in play. 
Are you are you just sort of 

323
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:29,680
leaning into that like for for 
just for example I see that for 

324
00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:33,960
for example the Bills they're 
given somewhere between 35 and 

325
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:41,080
40% playoff probabilities and 
then Josh Allen is going I think

326
00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:48,360
pick 22 like that that that 
definitely seems too too early 

327
00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:53,480
But then for example the Texans 
who and and and we've been happy

328
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:57,160
with Cedar Strad all year 
they're given they're given 

329
00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:02,480
something like 35% so like just 
a little bit lower and then 

330
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:04,920
their quarterback is way is way 
cheaper. 

331
00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:10,360
Like obviously I've I've sort of
teed up like a perfect or or a 

332
00:21:10,360 --> 00:21:15,960
good comparison and but are are 
are you happy to to take the 

333
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:21,800
quarterbacks of teams where it's
more marginal or are are you 

334
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:24,640
sort of sticking to 50% and 
above? 

335
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:27,760
Typically I'm sticking to 50% 
and above. 

336
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:32,320
So prior to this week when the 
Bills upset the Chiefs, I wasn't

337
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:35,560
taking any bills because they 
were still going basically 

338
00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:39,080
around the same price. 
Their ADP has climbed a little 

339
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:43,600
bit, but you would get just 
people that I thought were 

340
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:47,600
playing the game suboptimally, 
taking the Bills basically as 

341
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:51,520
early as they're going now, 
prior to them, you know, nearly 

342
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:54,680
doubling their playoff odds by 
beating the Chiefs, right? 

343
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:58,240
And so I wasn't really 
interested in doing that because

344
00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:01,560
in the universe where the Bills 
lose to the Chiefs when Cadarius

345
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:05,040
Tony is not offsides, right, all
of a sudden those Bills teams 

346
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:08,640
are stone dead, right? 
They go from like 25% playoff 

347
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:12,760
probability all the way down to 
like maybe sub 10% if they lose 

348
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:16,120
to the Chiefs there. 
And so I wasn't. 

349
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:19,840
Now that they're 40% and I think
I think the Bills are a good 

350
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:27,400
example of a team that's way way
overvalued like wait cause like 

351
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:35,400
Tampa Bay or 46% on on PFF 
anyway like Green Bay or 51 

352
00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:40,480
Denver or 53 Now they're 
probably not as as as live if 

353
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:44,120
they get in but the the price 
difference is is is just 

354
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:50,080
astronomical and and I guess 
just to get into what I'm asking

355
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:54,920
for these sort of like these 
these are marginal teams to make

356
00:22:54,920 --> 00:23:00,360
it is it still worth is it still
worth it to to stack to use AQB 

357
00:23:00,360 --> 00:23:04,880
and and and sort of stack up 
those teams at this point when 

358
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:08,440
it's still. 
Yeah, there can be circumstances

359
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:11,840
where it is worthwhile to do 
that. 

360
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,800
But for example, for those 
really marginal teams you talked

361
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:18,920
about where if they get in it, 
they're probably pretty big 

362
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:23,800
underdogs to whoever they play. 
Like, you know, or the Falcons 

363
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:28,440
or, you know, the Bucks, the the
big difference between those 

364
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,880
teams and the Bills is if the 
Bills do get in, their 

365
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:35,920
probability to actually win a 
game is going to be much better.

366
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:39,240
And so that trickles through to 
their odds of actually making 

367
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:41,400
the conference championship, 
which is one of the things I 

368
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:45,840
think is most important to focus
on, which is one reason why I am

369
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:49,440
drafting some Bills now in 
situations where it makes sense.

370
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:54,240
Usually I never am going into 
the draft with that as my 

371
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:58,280
primary game plan. 
That's always like my Plan B or 

372
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:01,760
what I need in the you know, as 
a second quarterback situation 

373
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,640
type of thing if it falls cheap 
enough to me. 

374
00:24:06,360 --> 00:24:09,800
But for those other Now think 
about what happens to the Bills 

375
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:14,480
ADP if they win another game. 
So let's say the Bills go out 

376
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:16,200
and they beat the Cowboys this 
week. 

377
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:18,600
Now what happens to the Bills? 
ADP it. 

378
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:24,680
It it it it, it's obviously the 
bills. 

379
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:27,200
So what? 
What problem do they go to like 

380
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:30,200
60%? 
I don't know exactly what 

381
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:32,600
probability they'd go to, but it
would certainly go up. 

382
00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:36,000
But the point I'm trying to get 
AT is the market will be even 

383
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:39,240
more bullish on them than the 
probability they would imply, 

384
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,720
right? 
And so because I was out on the 

385
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:46,880
Bills in that first drafting 
window of last week, I'm willing

386
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:51,120
to get some bills now because if
they win again, I probably won't

387
00:24:51,120 --> 00:24:54,000
get very many more Bills teams. 
They're I'm. 

388
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:57,480
This is probably the last stop 
on the train for me for getting 

389
00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:00,640
the Bills. 
And so for those other teams 

390
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:05,560
like the Broncos or the Packers 
or the Rams or any of the NFC 

391
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:10,320
South teams, it doesn't matter 
if those teams become 100% 

392
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:14,720
playoff probability, their ADP 
is still going to be super late.

393
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,400
You can still get them with your
last pick or last two picks. 

394
00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:21,360
So there's no reason to expose 
yourself to that risk now. 

395
00:25:22,120 --> 00:25:25,640
You can just wait and wait out 
the uncertainty there and get 

396
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,240
the exposure that you want in 
your portfolio later when 

397
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,240
there's more certainty, whereas 
you can't really do that with 

398
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:34,400
the bills and get some of the 
combinations that you'd be able 

399
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:39,560
to get now. 
Right that makes sense as like a

400
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,760
the the more they're they're 
very visible so like the market 

401
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:48,360
is going to be any very 
sensitive to any change in in 

402
00:25:48,360 --> 00:25:54,320
their playoff probability 
where's you you can you can 

403
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:58,400
probably wait for one of those 
teams marginal teams to get the 

404
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:01,600
70% and and their price won't 
change is is what you're saying.

405
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:06,480
Yep. 
You can wait till you see it. 

406
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:11,040
Yeah, that that makes sense. 
That makes sense. 

407
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:16,960
So like like you said at the 
start you're focusing on on on 

408
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:25,200
the players with 50% and above 
with and nuances exception for 

409
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:31,720
the Bills and I I guess that 
that just sort of narrows down 

410
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:40,400
the pool a good bit and not a 
lot of I guess not a lot else to

411
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,080
it, is there? 
No, no. 

412
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:46,280
Yeah, we we don't have to stay 
on the the playoff basketball 

413
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:48,600
topic for too long because I 
know there there certainly are 

414
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,400
going to be some people here 
that are are really just 

415
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:55,840
interested in you know start sit
information or or DFS or things 

416
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:59,080
like that. 
And so really the only stuff I 

417
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:03,760
had to touch on on the chart, 
you know CJ Stroud could miss 

418
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,720
this week with a concussion. 
You've also got the Nico Collins

419
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:10,600
injury. 
I do think that CJ Stroud is is 

420
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:13,080
one of those special 
quarterbacks that just elevates 

421
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:16,040
whatever is around him. 
So while you certainly would 

422
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,880
dock him a little bit in 
projection for not having Nico 

423
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:23,160
Collins, if he gets Schultz back
and he's, you know, he's got 

424
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:27,600
Noah Brown and Robert Woods out 
there running routes, I still 

425
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:31,960
think that CJ Stroud, I just 
think he's good enough that he's

426
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,720
going to make it work. 
Just like now this is, this 

427
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:38,880
might come across as a little 
bit aggressive of a comparison 

428
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:40,640
and I, you know, don't hear what
I'm not saying. 

429
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:44,600
But what we've seen from Patrick
Mahomes this season where he has

430
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:47,560
no weapons whatsoever outside of
Kelsey. 

431
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:49,600
Right. 
And he's still kind of making it

432
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:51,320
work. 
You know there's a lot of games 

433
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:54,120
where he doesn't put up a a 
fancy performance you're super 

434
00:27:54,120 --> 00:27:58,040
excited about but he's at least 
doing halfway decent. 

435
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:02,800
You know I I think I, I kind of 
look at Stroud as like a a 

436
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:05,720
little mini Mahomes. 
You know like he's. 

437
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:09,160
I don't I I mean you know we're 
not we're. 

438
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:12,120
Not the the injuries to his 
weapons it it brings it brings 

439
00:28:12,120 --> 00:28:14,120
that down the expectation a 
little bit. 

440
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:17,080
It it does. 
The expectation should still be 

441
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:18,200
high. 
Yes. 

442
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:21,400
So you might miss him this week,
but I I would still say that 

443
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:23,800
there's gonna be a lot of 
situations where you're looking 

444
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:27,080
at Stroud versus whatever other 
quarterback you could start over

445
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:31,200
him. 
And I'm probably going to, in a 

446
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,720
lot of those situations, I'm 
going to be leaning towards 

447
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:37,960
Stroud, so I just just wanted to
put that out there. 

448
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:41,720
So I, I, I, I know he, we I know
he said we we were going to move

449
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:44,560
on from playoff best ball. 
And but I have a really dumb 

450
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:49,400
question I want to ask you. 
So you're talking about teams 

451
00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:54,120
that have sort of consolidated 
their playoff probability and 

452
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:56,680
then could actually make noise 
once they get there. 

453
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:02,240
And in terms of like the 
predictive models, the Browns 

454
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:04,920
are sort of predicted to be a 
team like that. 

455
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:11,440
And then if Joe Flacco is the 
quarterback going forward, is 

456
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:13,320
that like, just completely 
ridiculous? 

457
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:17,440
No, I don't think it's 
completely ridiculous. 

458
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:22,600
We discussed the Browns and that
whole situation for the team and

459
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:26,720
how to play it in depth on the 
most recent Leg Up premium 

460
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:31,120
podcast, So I'm gonna keep that 
one a little under wraps. 

461
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:35,320
But I'll just say for for our 
purposes, no, I don't think it's

462
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:41,200
ridiculous. 
OK, OK, sounds like you might 

463
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,800
agree with me, but you you're 
you're you're leaving some of 

464
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:47,080
the details to to that podcast. 
Fair. 

465
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:52,200
Fair enough. 
Any any other quarterbacks here?

466
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:58,280
I mean, I'd be surprised, but. 
I mean some of the we we've got 

467
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:00,520
to talk about what's going on 
with the Vikings. 

468
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:05,080
You know there's Josh Dobbs been
benched it looks like it's 

469
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,680
probably going to be Nick 
Mullins going forward. 

470
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:12,520
Would be my best guess right. 
I do think that Nick Mullins is 

471
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:17,000
actually not bad. 
Like I I think there's a decent 

472
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:20,840
chance he's the best quarterback
on the roster right now the best

473
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:22,960
healthy one anyway outside of 
Kirk Cousins. 

474
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:28,400
But so I I I don't you know 
we've we've seen those good 

475
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:32,840
games from Dobbs and so we're 
more comfortable playing Vikings

476
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:36,000
weapons when Dobbs is out there 
because it it just it's 

477
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:39,400
something that's more known. 
We we've already seen it But you

478
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,840
know remember Nick Mullins 
executed just fine in the 49ers 

479
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:46,040
system which you know of course 
is a system that absolutely 

480
00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:48,440
anyone can you know any 
competent quarterback is going 

481
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:52,480
to be able to execute in that 
and look good and and the Viking

482
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:54,840
system isn't going to be quite 
as friendly. 

483
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:59,440
But you know if you get Justin 
Jefferson back and he is healthy

484
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:01,880
which gosh what an absolute 
tease. 

485
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,920
You know the the first week that
Jefferson's back in the lineup 

486
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:08,560
and he just gets a hospital ball
from Dobbs and gets blown up 

487
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,760
over the middle. 
You hope hope to see him back 

488
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:15,240
out there for this the fantasy 
playoffs here. 

489
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:19,200
But I would say that if 
Jefferson is out there, you 

490
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:21,600
know, you probably dock in a 
little bit for having Mullins as

491
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:26,160
quarterback, but I I wouldn't be
overly aggressive with that and 

492
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,240
you know, compared to what you'd
be doing for Dobbs anyway, so, 

493
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:32,200
so we're. 
We're putting Mullins in in the 

494
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:36,200
sort of competent backup QB 
where he doesn't just tank the 

495
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:41,440
team like the the wheels stay. 
The wheels may be frayed, they 

496
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:43,680
may be scratched, but they're 
still on the wagon. 

497
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:47,520
Yeah, like, I mean, we've 
already, we've seen some pretty 

498
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:50,800
great stuff from Jake Browning 
already, like he's looking very 

499
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:55,840
competent as a backup, right. 
And so I don't know that I'm 

500
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,560
ready to say that Nick Mullins 
is all the way to like the Jake 

501
00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:01,560
Browning level of competent 
backup, or or at least the 

502
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:03,520
performances we've seen so far. 
From him. 

503
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:07,680
One of the big things that 
people forget about these backup

504
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:12,760
quarterbacks is it's it's not as
hard to do it for one or two 

505
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:16,600
games as it is to do it 
consistently week after week, 

506
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:21,240
Especially when teams get film 
on you, when teams are ready to 

507
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:25,480
understand your tendencies and 
find ways to exploit you, that's

508
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:27,480
when quarterbacks. 
That's like, that's what we've 

509
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,160
seen with Josh Dobbs, right? 
He gets somewhere, he's got a 

510
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:33,400
couple good weeks under him, 
then the film is out. 

511
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:35,840
Teams are able to study up on 
his tendencies. 

512
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:38,480
Right. 
And and that's a very frequent 

513
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:42,560
occurrence every year where like
somebody like you you've never 

514
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:47,160
heard of comes out, they come 
out flaming hot and then after 

515
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:50,560
two games like they're just 
completely shut down. 

516
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:53,600
Yep, the tape, the tapes out. 
No more secrets. 

517
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:57,480
So the really good quarterbacks 
are the ones that are able to do

518
00:32:57,480 --> 00:32:59,760
that consistently week after 
week. 

519
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:03,280
So I still think it's probably 
too early to say that 

520
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:07,600
definitively about Browning and 
we've got, you know, a low level

521
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,960
of confidence that Mullins is 
going to be competent. 

522
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:14,520
But if I were going to place my 
chips on a a bet, I would say 

523
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:18,080
I'd be more willing to bet that 
Mullins is in the competent 

524
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:21,760
category than, you know, being 
in like the Bailey's Appy 

525
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,200
category. 
Although Bailey's appy had a 

526
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:26,520
couple nice looking throws on 
that Thursday night game. 

527
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:29,840
I mean, granted, he's still just
abysmal on this chart. 

528
00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:34,840
Like he does not look good, but 
even Bailey's appy can run hot. 

529
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:38,200
Every once in a while, they're 
they're NFL players. 

530
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,520
Yeah, yeah, they're. 
These guys are in the league for

531
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:43,360
a reason. 
It's not just you or me coming 

532
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:45,600
off the couch. 
Like, I think I can throw it 

533
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:47,800
like 10 yards. 
Like, no, these these guys were 

534
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:49,840
some of the best athletes in the
world, so. 

535
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:53,000
Right. 
Really, really hard for a very 

536
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:54,000
long time. 
Yeah, yeah. 

537
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:59,240
So anyway, I don't think 
there's, oh, you got the Geno 

538
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:02,960
Smith situation. 
From what I've heard, he should 

539
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:06,440
be able to be back and healthy. 
It was just a little one week 

540
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:11,159
stint from Drew Lock. 
But yeah, I mean if you're if 

541
00:34:11,159 --> 00:34:13,040
you're in a situation where 
you're having to do a start sit 

542
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:16,800
with Geno Smith, that's gonna be
a a tougher one in my opinion 

543
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,920
like so. 
So let's just say hypothetically

544
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,800
both Jake Browning and Geno 
Smith are healthy next week. 

545
00:34:23,199 --> 00:34:25,320
Who are you starting, Geno Smith
or Jake Browning? 

546
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,400
I think you still go with Geno 
Smith. 

547
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:40,320
Just my my opinion and fully 
healthy and it's it's like you 

548
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:44,560
said with the the Bengals doing 
the screen game team and and 

549
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:49,400
then mixing it up with some good
trolls too like it. 

550
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:54,080
It definitely feels like a 
dumbed down offense to to go 

551
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:56,840
with the strength of a limited 
quarterback. 

552
00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:00,960
That is something that NFL 
defenses are gonna be able to 

553
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:09,040
figure out so and then Geno 
Smith he he does obviously he 

554
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:13,920
he's had his struggle games too 
but I think he's he's had a 

555
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:18,520
longer sample size of of of good
performance as well and so that 

556
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:23,360
I guess putting aside recent 
results I I I would prefer Geno 

557
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:27,240
personally. 
OK, now I've got a question for 

558
00:35:27,240 --> 00:35:29,440
you. 
I really am asking you this 

559
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,320
question rather selfishly. 
I need you to deliver me a 

560
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:38,200
healthy dose of Copium. 
So I had Justin Herbert as my, 

561
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:40,760
you know, primary quarterback on
a. 

562
00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:43,200
You shouldn't start him. 
Yeah he he. 

563
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:46,680
Well, he was my primary 
quarterback on A555 team that I 

564
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:49,080
managed to advance. 
The team looks pretty good. 

565
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:52,280
Almost no injuries outside of 
Herbert. 

566
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,200
I think it's got Corey Davis on 
there and I I want to say those 

567
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:56,760
are the only two dead roster 
spots. 

568
00:35:56,760 --> 00:36:01,320
So it's got CMC, Pollard 
Mostert, Mike Evans, Keenan 

569
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:03,480
Allen, like it's it's Zay 
Flowers. 

570
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:05,640
It's stunning. 
Yeah, team looks strong. 

571
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:11,520
The only downside is my last 
remaining quarterback is Desmond

572
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:15,400
Ritter. 
So I need Desmond Ritter to make

573
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:18,240
it through a 555 playoff 
gauntlet. 

574
00:36:18,240 --> 00:36:22,000
Now for for those of you that 
aren't out in the 55 streets on 

575
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:25,040
DK, the advanced structure is a 
little easier to get through. 

576
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:29,560
You know these playoff rounds, I
want to say it's it's one of six

577
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:33,360
and then one of five and then 
the finals is 1 of 29, I think. 

578
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:40,160
So can Desmond Ritter drag my 
555 team to the finals and win 

579
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:43,400
me a middle league? 
You know, I hope so because I 

580
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:48,680
have a very similar team with 
with Sean and our two 

581
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:51,880
quarterbacks were Desmond Ritter
and Aaron Rodgers. 

582
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:56,840
And at some, like if the team 
overall is good enough to have 

583
00:36:57,160 --> 00:37:00,840
gotten through to the playoffs 
with Desmond Ritter as the only 

584
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:05,240
quarterback all year, good. 
That's like just give me a 

585
00:37:05,240 --> 00:37:08,960
couple more weeks. 
I mean he he threw, was he the 

586
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:13,360
passing leader this week? 
I believe that he was I. 

587
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:17,160
Don't know. 
Yeah, I think he was in fact the

588
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:20,920
passing leader this week. 
I mean, Drake London went 

589
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:25,720
absolutely nuke. 
So yeah, I would just like to 

590
00:37:25,720 --> 00:37:30,280
put in my request for Desmond 
Ritter one time for all the. 

591
00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:34,920
He was. 
He was passing yard #2 and Rock 

592
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:41,600
Purdy had 368, Ritter had 347 
and then Will Lavis had 327. 

593
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:46,720
Yeah, now I've got another 
another fun one, some major 

594
00:37:46,720 --> 00:37:49,240
copium required for this one as 
well. 

595
00:37:49,240 --> 00:37:55,680
I managed to sneak abbt team 
through on FFPC just by the skin

596
00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:57,360
of my teeth. 
Now it does have some 

597
00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:01,120
quarterbacks, but this team has 
been tilting me all season 

598
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:03,880
because I had gone on vacation 
this summer. 

599
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:06,600
I've been, I was doing this 
draft with a couple buddies and 

600
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:08,440
I said, hey, I'm, I'm on 
vacation. 

601
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:11,960
So like sometimes I might not 
get to the queue in time. 

602
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:14,480
I need you guys to make sure 
we're we're on top of it 

603
00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:16,680
collectively. 
So we don't auto draft anything.

604
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:19,720
We make it to the last two 
rounds, no auto drafts. 

605
00:38:19,720 --> 00:38:22,320
We're doing good. 
We've got some guys in the 

606
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:24,960
queue. 
I think we had you know like 

607
00:38:25,240 --> 00:38:27,680
we're had two, two and PUKA in 
the queue. 

608
00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:31,160
Unfortunately we get auto 
drafted and two, two was higher 

609
00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:33,760
than PUKA. 
So we took two, two, and then I 

610
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:36,160
I take PUKA out of the queue 
because I'm like, all right, 

611
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:38,480
that's enough dark throw at Rams
wide receivers. 

612
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:40,800
You know we'll we'll ride with 
the 2/2, right? 

613
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:42,800
You don't need, you need don't 
need the second one. 

614
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:46,320
Nope, Nope. 
And so then I I managed to miss 

615
00:38:46,320 --> 00:38:48,920
that last pick. 
That 20th pick, you know, wasn't

616
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:53,240
able to make it to the phone in 
time before I got auto drafted 

617
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:56,960
and Ryan Tannehill got auto 
drafted. 

618
00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:59,760
We didn't have AQ set. 
He was just top of ADP. 

619
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:04,280
So we we've got a Ryan Tannehill
team on it has no need for Ryan 

620
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:06,080
Tannehill whatsoever. 
It's got two functional 

621
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:08,000
quarterbacks. 
I think it's like Dak and Tua or

622
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:11,360
something. 
And So what I'm asking you here 

623
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:15,120
is will Levis kind of hurt his 
shoulder during that game. 

624
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:18,160
You know he dropped a shoulder 
when he was rushing and and 

625
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:21,280
trying to bowl over a defender. 
So do. 

626
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:24,760
You think the one with Ramsey? 
Yeah, do you think that there's 

627
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:28,320
a chance that Will Levis gets 
himself knocked out of the game 

628
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:34,040
and Ryan Tannehill could be the 
guy that I need to take down the

629
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:41,000
BBT? 
I appreciate that you were able 

630
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:43,320
to keep a straight face for. 
Yeah, it was. 

631
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:45,920
It was difficult. 
I'm just, I'm trying to cope 

632
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:48,880
with the stupid Tannehill auto 
draft that probably should have 

633
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:52,800
been puka, but. 
Anyway, I mean, if it makes you 

634
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:58,000
feel any better, imagine that it
was a Sean. 

635
00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:03,360
That it was who's their Their. 
The the Tampa Bay or Retreat? 

636
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:06,520
The guy, the rookie. 
That was Sean Tucker. 

637
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:10,880
Just imagine it was Sean Tucker.
Yeah, it definitely it could be 

638
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:12,840
Sean Tucker. 
I have plenty of Sean Tucker, 

639
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:14,120
though, on my big board. 
Team No. 

640
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:17,200
What I'm saying is he'll score 
the same amount of points as 

641
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:19,880
Sean Tucker. 
Feel much better. 

642
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:24,920
That's that is a fairpoint. 
Yeah, my man. 

643
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:28,960
As a brief aside, my big board 
team running back rooms are the 

644
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:32,880
funniest thing I've ever seen 
because they're like a lot of 

645
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:37,520
them are zero RB teams. 
But it's like Sean Tucker and 

646
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:42,160
Chase Brown and Izzy A Bonaconda
and it's like I've got like 6 

647
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:47,160
running backs on a team and it's
Raheem Monster and like Tyler 

648
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:50,800
Algier are the only ones with 
any points actually scored on 

649
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:51,840
the season. 
So it's. 

650
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:55,360
Really it's it's honestly for 
the the, the before the draft 

651
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:59,800
stuff, it's really hard to keep 
a solid team together. 

652
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:02,440
But yeah, it's fun. 
You're. 

653
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:04,840
You're just trying to find a 
needle in a in a haystack. 

654
00:41:05,560 --> 00:41:07,960
Yeah, I'm, I'm looking forward 
to that contest next year 

655
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:10,400
though. 
I had a pretty good advance rate

656
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:14,960
this year and it and I I think I
I know where my leaks were. 

657
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:16,800
I'm I'm looking to plug him for 
next year. 

658
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:23,400
I yeah, yeah, I I I I I've. 
I've had similar moments where 

659
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:26,080
I'm like I I I I can see the 
mistake I made there. 

660
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:28,960
Yeah. 
All right. 

661
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:32,040
I think that's all there is to 
talk about on the quarterback 

662
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:34,560
chart here. 
Go ahead and move on to running 

663
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:40,480
back chart. 
Here we go. 

664
00:41:40,720 --> 00:41:46,720
And so this is our are running 
back snaps and usage chart and 

665
00:41:46,720 --> 00:41:49,720
so this is this, this is 
essentially when a running back 

666
00:41:49,720 --> 00:41:55,760
is on the field we really want 
rush attempts and and and and 

667
00:41:55,760 --> 00:42:01,680
you can see that the some of 
these players bordering on or or

668
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:05,760
close to 40% of their team snaps
is rushing attempts to them. 

669
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:10,560
Obviously that that's helpful 
and then you have routes and and

670
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:14,360
that's the percentage of their 
team's plays that these teams 

671
00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:20,280
are running a route and that 
that's helpful because with the 

672
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:23,360
exception of CMC most most of 
them aren't primary sort of 

673
00:42:23,360 --> 00:42:27,080
targets in the passing game. 
And so when the ball goes to 

674
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:30,480
them it's because there's sort 
of secondary option and and the 

675
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:33,800
best way to take advantage of 
that is to just be on the field 

676
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:39,960
a lot you've got pass blocking 
which helpful to know who's 

677
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:45,000
trusted to do that and then run 
blocking and just because why 

678
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:49,240
not. 
And so I I guess I, I I guess I 

679
00:42:49,240 --> 00:42:53,400
think we should take a similar 
focus to this chart and I was 

680
00:42:53,400 --> 00:43:00,280
sort of thinking about it that 
the the probably the most 

681
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:04,800
helpful way and that we can our 
best way we can help people with

682
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:10,320
playoff best ball is on those 
sort of marginal teams or or say

683
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:18,880
on those high high ADP high 
expected to make win the Super 

684
00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:21,120
high probability to win the 
Super Bowl. 

685
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:25,240
Who are the ancillary pieces 
that are are worth sort of 

686
00:43:25,240 --> 00:43:27,160
taking? 
Good. 

687
00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:32,720
Good question. 
So here it it, we're not going 

688
00:43:32,720 --> 00:43:37,120
to run into a ton of the 
ancillary pieces on. 

689
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:41,080
This chart, that's that's true. 
And so then I guess the flip 

690
00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:46,320
side would be on the lower 
probability to make the OR 

691
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:50,000
sorry, lower probability to win 
the Super Bowl. 

692
00:43:50,720 --> 00:43:57,440
Which teams have the stars that 
are such a high usage that if 

693
00:43:57,440 --> 00:44:00,240
they do, you're just running 
away with things? 

694
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:04,120
Yeah. 
So really for me, some of the 

695
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:08,680
guys that are at prices that I 
think are pretty attractive 

696
00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:12,920
right now, I really like Travis.
Etienne, the sentiment on the 

697
00:44:12,920 --> 00:44:17,360
Jags is really poor right now. 
The market is like certain that 

698
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:20,320
the Jags will never win another 
football game for the history of

699
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:24,240
forever. 
Now you know, I don't know if 

700
00:44:24,240 --> 00:44:26,640
you've heard, but Trevor 
Lawrence is, you know, mangled 

701
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:29,320
beyond he. 
May never walk. 

702
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:31,560
Again, yeah. 
No, he's never going to. 

703
00:44:31,720 --> 00:44:36,320
In fact, I believe that Shad 
Khan petitioned the NFL to allow

704
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:39,520
Trevor to play from an electric 
wheelchair for next week. 

705
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:41,280
So we're seeing if that's gonna 
work. 

706
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:44,280
But no. 
In in all seriousness, what I'm 

707
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:46,600
looking for are teams with 
really high playoff 

708
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:49,960
probabilities, like the Lions 
and the Jags are basically locks

709
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:54,520
to make. 
And now earlier the Lions were 

710
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:57,440
going a little too expensive. 
Now they've fallen down a little

711
00:44:57,440 --> 00:45:01,080
bit and what I would say with 
these teams where they're kind 

712
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:05,080
of a long shot to make the 
conference championship, but 

713
00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:08,440
they do have good fantasy 
players on them, players that 

714
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:10,920
produce points and get lots of 
opportunities. 

715
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:14,240
I'm just being pretty price 
sensitive with them and I'm 

716
00:45:14,240 --> 00:45:17,280
being intentional with the 
situations where I'm taking 

717
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:20,960
them. 
And so guys like Travis, Etienne

718
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:24,320
or and I don't believe that 
either of these guys are gonna 

719
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:27,880
make this chart between David 
Montgomery and Jameer Gibbs. 

720
00:45:27,880 --> 00:45:31,800
But those are both the all all 
three of those are kind of in 

721
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:35,960
the same range ADP wise and 
they're all guys that I'm I'm 

722
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:38,880
pretty happy to take when they 
fit my build. 

723
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:45,520
Players that have really strong 
roles but as of right now I have

724
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:47,920
no shares of them. 
So this is this is pretty 

725
00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:49,600
important. 
I would say this is like 

726
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:52,360
probably more alpha than Pat 
wants me to give away on this 

727
00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:54,040
pod. 
He probably wants to save for 

728
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:56,840
the premium stuff but we're 
we're gonna give this one away 

729
00:45:56,840 --> 00:45:59,960
to the the loyal stat chasing 
viewers. 

730
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:04,280
So these are players I have 0% 
of so far, but they have really 

731
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:06,280
good roles. 
And it's not to say that I'll 

732
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:08,560
never draft him. 
It's just right now it's not 

733
00:46:08,560 --> 00:46:11,200
prudent to do so. 
So Rashad White? 

734
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:13,720
No Rashad White yet. 
Javante Williams? 

735
00:46:13,720 --> 00:46:15,200
No. 
Javante Williams yet. 

736
00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:17,560
Saquon Barkley? 
No Saquon Barkley yet? 

737
00:46:17,560 --> 00:46:19,160
Probably no Saquon Barkley at 
all. 

738
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:24,800
Zach Moss, No Zach Mos yet. 
Let's see. 

739
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:28,880
Bijon Robinson. 
I do have a Bijon Robinson 

740
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:33,600
share, but I'm really trying to 
avoid doing that. 

741
00:46:33,600 --> 00:46:36,760
There's some situations where 
the room just puts you in a bad 

742
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:40,440
spot and that's your cleanest 
path and you gotta go with it. 

743
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:43,520
But that's like a break glass in
case of emergency. 

744
00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:46,520
And bijon is basically the same 
thing as Rashad White. 

745
00:46:46,600 --> 00:46:49,240
So like the fact that I have a 
bijon share and I don't have a 

746
00:46:49,240 --> 00:46:51,960
white share doesn't mean that I 
view them differently. 

747
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:53,520
They're like the same 
probability to make the 

748
00:46:53,520 --> 00:46:55,680
playoffs. 
They're basically the same as 

749
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:58,880
far as fantasy production. 
Of course, Bijon is like the 

750
00:46:58,880 --> 00:47:03,320
better player, but for for our 
purposes, they are the same 

751
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:09,760
thing. 
Let's see another Alvin Kamara. 

752
00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:11,800
So, So that's kind of an 
interesting one. 

753
00:47:11,800 --> 00:47:15,160
It's really the triumvirate of 
NFC South teams. 

754
00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:19,120
All three NFC South teams that 
are live for the playoffs have 

755
00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:21,000
running backs that you'd be 
happy to draft. 

756
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:24,480
Like by the time you're at that 
spot in the draft, you're like 

757
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:27,040
and you need a running back. 
You're like, God, Alvin Kamara 

758
00:47:27,040 --> 00:47:30,160
or Bijan or Rashad White are all
looking pretty good right now. 

759
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:32,800
But do I really want to bet on 
this team making the playoffs? 

760
00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:36,800
And I would say that you should 
pretty much never have that Be 

761
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:37,640
your plan. 
A. 

762
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:40,640
Don't ever go into a draft, get 
box out of running back early 

763
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:42,960
and be like it's fine. 
I'll bail myself out with an NFC

764
00:47:42,960 --> 00:47:45,840
South running back. 
Like you'll be able to do that 

765
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:50,000
in a week or two weeks when that
situation crystallizes without 

766
00:47:50,000 --> 00:47:54,280
burning a bunch of dead teams. 
Now by sprinkling in those 

767
00:47:54,280 --> 00:47:57,560
random shares of the ones that 
don't make the playoffs. 

768
00:47:58,400 --> 00:48:06,600
Speaking of teams with not great
vibes but strong probability to 

769
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:10,480
make the playoffs and then 
running backs would sort of 

770
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:13,800
like, OK, Rose, what about 
Jerome Ford? 

771
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:20,240
Yeah, I'm gonna defer to just 
comment on the Browns there and 

772
00:48:20,240 --> 00:48:21,960
say. 
Certainly not. 

773
00:48:24,280 --> 00:48:28,680
So just my my. 
Mission is to make you say that 

774
00:48:28,680 --> 00:48:30,520
as many times tonight as 
possible. 

775
00:48:30,720 --> 00:48:35,120
You can probably put two and two
together, but really, you know 

776
00:48:35,560 --> 00:48:38,880
the the reason that I'm not 
spilling all the alpha here, 

777
00:48:38,880 --> 00:48:42,480
like guys, I'm, I'm giving away 
like everything. 

778
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:44,760
Like I I promise. 
Like I'm not holding anything 

779
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:47,160
back on. 
Like if you're in the Discord 

780
00:48:47,160 --> 00:48:49,880
channel and you've been talking 
about playoff basketball, like, 

781
00:48:49,880 --> 00:48:52,920
you know, I'm just like, yeah, 
sure, here's all the advice I 

782
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:54,880
could possibly give you. 
Like here's everything I know 

783
00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:57,000
about this game. 
Like I'm really not hiding 

784
00:48:57,000 --> 00:48:58,760
anything. 
And if it is something where I'm

785
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:01,480
like I'm actually going to save 
that for the leg up Subs, it's 

786
00:49:01,480 --> 00:49:04,280
because I'm doing that to try 
and return value to the people 

787
00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:06,400
who are paying a subscription 
over at leg up. 

788
00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:09,640
And so like, I'm for more or 
less. 

789
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:12,760
I'm an open book, but if you 
find a thing that I think is 

790
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:18,360
really valuable Alpha that I'm 
not willing to disclose, you 

791
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:21,840
know I I'm still I'm gonna give 
it to you in the leg up discord.

792
00:49:21,840 --> 00:49:24,160
So if you're not in the leg up 
discord, but you remember, 

793
00:49:24,400 --> 00:49:26,560
definitely get in there. 
Like I I've been answering. 

794
00:49:26,760 --> 00:49:28,960
Are you trying? 
Are you trying to make me feel 

795
00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:31,080
bad right now? 
No, no, I'm. 

796
00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:34,840
Taking taking food out of the 
mouths of the leg up Subs. 

797
00:49:34,840 --> 00:49:38,160
What I what I want to do is I 
want all of our ship chasing 

798
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:41,720
members and you know our our 
loyal patrons to this pod. 

799
00:49:41,720 --> 00:49:44,480
I want them to know like I'm not
just hanging them out to dry. 

800
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:46,840
Like I'm trying to give away a 
lot of alpha man. 

801
00:49:46,840 --> 00:49:53,440
Like I I'm my my mission is that
someone you know wins you know 

802
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:56,680
hopefully multiple tournaments. 
There's there's people that win 

803
00:49:56,680 --> 00:50:00,520
multiple tournaments in these 
playoff formats from advice that

804
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:04,160
there or you know things that 
they were able to glean from 

805
00:50:04,240 --> 00:50:07,560
from stuff that I shared. 
So you know if it can't be me, I

806
00:50:07,560 --> 00:50:09,360
hope that it's someone that I'm 
able to help. 

807
00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:13,000
So but there are there are some 
things where I want to make sure

808
00:50:13,000 --> 00:50:15,560
that I'm I'm doing right by the 
Subs at leg up too. 

809
00:50:15,560 --> 00:50:18,040
So I just didn't want anyone 
here feeling like they were 

810
00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:20,480
getting the raw end of the deal 
or I wasn't you know. 

811
00:50:20,480 --> 00:50:23,120
Oh Sack's holding all the good 
stuff back for himself. 

812
00:50:23,120 --> 00:50:26,680
Like, I'm not, I promise. 
Like I'll share it all. 

813
00:50:26,680 --> 00:50:30,200
But yeah, come come find me in 
the Discord or or tune into the 

814
00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:35,880
leg up stuff. 
Fair enough. 

815
00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:40,520
Fair enough. 
Zach wants you to do blank with 

816
00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:53,320
the Browns and we move on. 
So I think I I think that covers

817
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:59,400
us a little bit from, well 
Speaking of playoff stuff, 

818
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:04,760
another player with a great role
is Tony Pollard. 

819
00:51:05,760 --> 00:51:10,480
And I I think I remember you 
being quite in favor of Pollard.

820
00:51:12,320 --> 00:51:15,880
I think it was the the week 
before last and I remember us 

821
00:51:15,880 --> 00:51:22,240
having a deep a long 
conversation about it and I 

822
00:51:22,240 --> 00:51:29,360
guess with the idea that the 
Cowboys are they're one of the 

823
00:51:29,440 --> 00:51:31,960
the strong favourites to make 
the Super Bowl. 

824
00:51:33,040 --> 00:51:38,640
Pollard has one of the best 
roles on this chart and and if 

825
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:44,320
you filter if you filter down to
just playoff likely teams like 

826
00:51:45,080 --> 00:51:50,000
by far one of the strongest 
roles and then his his ADP is 

827
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:55,680
just is 13 like it it is is this
another defer to the leg up 

828
00:51:56,280 --> 00:51:57,280
podcast. 
No, no. 

829
00:51:57,280 --> 00:52:00,160
What I'd say is. 
I'm I'm only I'm only teasing by

830
00:52:00,200 --> 00:52:06,040
the way I I'm I'm I'm using that
as a a a metaphor for really 

831
00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:07,320
good. 
But I don't want to say. 

832
00:52:08,680 --> 00:52:10,560
Yeah, no. 
Pollard just checks like all the

833
00:52:10,560 --> 00:52:13,200
boxes that we're looking for in 
playoff basketball. 

834
00:52:13,200 --> 00:52:15,560
Right? 
Like he's a guy with a strong 

835
00:52:15,560 --> 00:52:19,280
role on a team that's a strong 
favorite to at least, you know 

836
00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:21,720
make they're they're locked in 
for the playoffs. 

837
00:52:22,040 --> 00:52:24,120
They've got good probability of 
making the conference 

838
00:52:24,120 --> 00:52:28,320
championship their first round 
match up looks like it should be

839
00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:30,800
like regardless of how the. 
Playoffs. 

840
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:32,880
It'll be a shit team. 
Exactly. 

841
00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:36,440
Regardless of what seed the 
Cowboys get, their first match 

842
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:39,360
up that they play is gonna be an
easy one. 

843
00:52:39,520 --> 00:52:44,360
So that's that's. 
Gonna make it even all the more 

844
00:52:44,360 --> 00:52:47,280
crushing when they lose. 
Absolutely, Yeah. 

845
00:52:47,280 --> 00:52:51,880
I mean, like this is the season 
where, as a brief aside into my 

846
00:52:51,880 --> 00:52:55,320
Cowboys fandom, I I. 
Shouldn't have said. 

847
00:52:55,360 --> 00:52:57,600
That Yeah, you you have yourself
to blame, man. 

848
00:52:58,120 --> 00:53:00,560
I gave up on the Cowboys. 
I'm pretty sure I remember the 

849
00:53:00,560 --> 00:53:02,160
date. 
I want to say it was October 

850
00:53:02,160 --> 00:53:04,920
13th. 
Let's let's just go back and 

851
00:53:04,920 --> 00:53:07,120
make sure that's well it. 
It doesn't really matter. 

852
00:53:07,120 --> 00:53:09,720
But I just want to see how how 
accurate my memory. 

853
00:53:09,720 --> 00:53:11,760
OK. 
And just while you're saying 

854
00:53:11,760 --> 00:53:17,200
that about Tony Fowler I think 
an important part with the with 

855
00:53:17,360 --> 00:53:21,360
all with some of the and I've 
definitely felt some of the 

856
00:53:21,360 --> 00:53:26,680
discourse about him having lost 
a step in being Z2 point O and 

857
00:53:26,680 --> 00:53:29,880
and and stuff of that nature. 
When you really shorten it down 

858
00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:33,520
to the small number of games, 
like that stuff matters so much 

859
00:53:33,560 --> 00:53:38,520
less and like you you you really
have to to sort of hone in more 

860
00:53:38,520 --> 00:53:43,560
on these hard numbers. 
Which is they're they're they're

861
00:53:43,560 --> 00:53:47,680
sort of playoff probability, the
strength of the role and you're 

862
00:53:47,680 --> 00:53:51,760
not having to pay for it. 
Like ADP of 13 is like insane. 

863
00:53:51,760 --> 00:53:57,120
Insanely reasonable for that 
combination. 

864
00:53:57,840 --> 00:54:00,240
Yeah so he he just checks a lot 
of boxes. 

865
00:54:00,240 --> 00:54:03,120
He's the kind of player that 
we're really happy to get on our

866
00:54:03,120 --> 00:54:04,600
teams. 
You know, you're you're you're 

867
00:54:05,000 --> 00:54:08,240
pretty happy to get any of the 
running backs on the strong 

868
00:54:08,240 --> 00:54:11,880
favourites to make the 
conference championship on your 

869
00:54:11,880 --> 00:54:17,280
team and so. 
But like CMC 101 and then Tony 

870
00:54:17,280 --> 00:54:21,760
Pollard, her team like, so like 
what's that two rounds of 

871
00:54:21,760 --> 00:54:26,000
difference or? 
Yeah, yeah, you you basically 

872
00:54:26,000 --> 00:54:28,880
all the way back to the the 
turn, right the 2-3 turn. 

873
00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:34,080
I I will say that I made I I 
took my draft capital model that

874
00:54:34,080 --> 00:54:39,040
I had made for you know regular 
season best fall and I adjusted 

875
00:54:39,240 --> 00:54:42,120
that and made some tweaks for 
playoff basketball. 

876
00:54:42,520 --> 00:54:45,960
And I will say that the model 
basically looks at CMC like he 

877
00:54:45,960 --> 00:54:53,120
is literally a God like has CMC 
so high like he is the 101 

878
00:54:53,120 --> 00:54:58,600
forever and ever in playoff 
basketball and and like it's CMC

879
00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:01,760
and then there's 50 feet of crap
and then there's the next guy. 

880
00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:04,520
So right, yeah, he's a he's. 
Right. 

881
00:55:04,600 --> 00:55:08,000
So it's not, it's not. 
It's not correct to just to use 

882
00:55:08,000 --> 00:55:11,480
him as a as a reference point 
just because of her rare 

883
00:55:11,520 --> 00:55:13,360
Oliver's attributes. 
Are Yeah. 

884
00:55:13,360 --> 00:55:16,120
CMC is just so good in this 
contest. 

885
00:55:16,120 --> 00:55:19,240
You know not only does he is he 
like the highest fantasy point 

886
00:55:19,240 --> 00:55:22,720
projected player, but he's also 
on the team with the highest 

887
00:55:22,720 --> 00:55:26,960
probability of the Super Bowl. 
Like he Yeah, he's elite. 

888
00:55:28,080 --> 00:55:32,160
But I I mean if if you if you 
look OK, you've looked down the 

889
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:37,800
other way you've got Devon and 
Chan at pick 19, Swift are at 

890
00:55:37,800 --> 00:55:44,280
19.2. 
I guess that that's another way 

891
00:55:44,280 --> 00:55:47,840
of saying how much like it 
running back sort of tins out 

892
00:55:48,440 --> 00:55:53,800
which it it is supportive of the
value there? 

893
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:55,920
Yep. 
Yeah, exactly. 

894
00:55:55,960 --> 00:55:57,280
Yeah. 
Before. 

895
00:55:57,600 --> 00:56:00,840
If you don't have a running back
early in these contests, you 

896
00:56:00,840 --> 00:56:04,880
find yourself, you know, staring
down the barrel of a, you know, 

897
00:56:04,880 --> 00:56:08,960
Rico Dowdell or an Elijah 
Mitchell or something like that 

898
00:56:08,960 --> 00:56:11,360
at the end of the draft. 
Or you're you're trying to talk 

899
00:56:11,360 --> 00:56:15,360
yourself out of Rashad White or 
Bijan Robinson because you're 

900
00:56:15,360 --> 00:56:17,560
like, Zach told me, not to take 
these guys yet. 

901
00:56:17,560 --> 00:56:20,720
But I don't, I really don't want
to just have Elijah Mitchell and

902
00:56:20,720 --> 00:56:22,240
Rico Dowdell as my running 
backs. 

903
00:56:22,240 --> 00:56:25,800
It's like tough shit, man. 
Like you made your bed, now lie 

904
00:56:25,800 --> 00:56:27,240
in it. 
Right. 

905
00:56:28,120 --> 00:56:32,120
Yeah you your your probability 
is is already low. 

906
00:56:32,480 --> 00:56:36,080
If if you if you want, if you 
want to take Rashad White, 

907
00:56:36,080 --> 00:56:38,680
you're lowering the probability 
to make yourself feel better. 

908
00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:41,280
Yeah, exactly. 
It feels comfier, but you're 

909
00:56:41,280 --> 00:56:44,440
you're gonna be probably losing 
money in the long run playing it

910
00:56:44,440 --> 00:56:50,040
that way. 
So yeah, not, not too much else 

911
00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:53,680
I wanted to focus on here on 
this chart, but let's go to the 

912
00:56:53,680 --> 00:56:57,320
backups chart, because yes, have
some guys that are gonna be 

913
00:56:57,320 --> 00:57:01,800
relevant for those late rounds 
in the playoff contest. 

914
00:57:01,800 --> 00:57:03,640
You know, you mentioned Devonna 
Chan. 

915
00:57:03,760 --> 00:57:07,560
Obviously he's not a even a late
round pick but guys like David 

916
00:57:07,560 --> 00:57:11,440
Montgomery can be a real that's 
that's like a great backstop 

917
00:57:11,440 --> 00:57:14,560
where you're like shit, shit, 
shit, I missed running back or I

918
00:57:14,560 --> 00:57:16,360
need. 
I've got a running back that's 

919
00:57:16,360 --> 00:57:19,040
probably on buy and I need 
someone. 

920
00:57:19,440 --> 00:57:23,320
David Montgomery is like often 
times one of my break glass in 

921
00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:26,400
case of emergency running backs.
Where do I think the lines are 

922
00:57:26,400 --> 00:57:28,200
going to the Super Bowl? 
No. 

923
00:57:28,280 --> 00:57:31,560
Do I think they can make the 
conference championship Maybe. 

924
00:57:31,680 --> 00:57:34,000
Like we've we've seen this team 
play good football right? 

925
00:57:34,000 --> 00:57:35,800
Like they beat the Chiefs 
earlier this year. 

926
00:57:35,920 --> 00:57:38,640
Somebody just has to get hot. 
Yeah, they're, they're they're, 

927
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:40,480
you know, kind of backsliding 
right now. 

928
00:57:40,480 --> 00:57:43,280
And they're they're back to 
their old Lions bullshit, 

929
00:57:43,280 --> 00:57:46,280
honestly. 
Like they're they're just doing 

930
00:57:46,280 --> 00:57:49,800
the silly Lions things like 
running the ball way too much. 

931
00:57:49,800 --> 00:57:54,640
Not involving their best weapons
just, you know, being being. 

932
00:57:56,640 --> 00:57:58,800
But we we know that they can 
win. 

933
00:57:59,040 --> 00:58:01,760
And so a guy like David 
Montgomery can be really 

934
00:58:01,760 --> 00:58:05,720
valuable in this contest. 
I got a gross one for you. 

935
00:58:05,840 --> 00:58:07,840
You want? 
OK, here's here's a gross one 

936
00:58:07,840 --> 00:58:10,560
that you have my blessing to 
draft you You ready for this 

937
00:58:10,560 --> 00:58:11,920
one? 
OK. 

938
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:20,200
Ty Chandler. 
So Ty Chandler in in in playoff 

939
00:58:20,200 --> 00:58:25,120
best ball. 
So you're real. 

940
00:58:25,280 --> 00:58:31,440
Well, 'cause like I was gonna 
say you're you're you're really 

941
00:58:31,440 --> 00:58:35,280
hoping for the the injury to 
Alexander Madison to sort of 

942
00:58:36,080 --> 00:58:42,000
drag on and but there's also and
and and it's a it's a small 

943
00:58:42,000 --> 00:58:46,040
doubt I think this is a small 
doubt where during his injury 

944
00:58:46,040 --> 00:58:54,120
even if Madison returns during 
the playoffs that what's his how

945
00:58:54,120 --> 00:58:58,880
do I forget Ty Chandler is 
playing so well that they just 

946
00:58:59,000 --> 00:59:00,520
they just say to Madison now 
we're good. 

947
00:59:01,400 --> 00:59:06,840
Exactly. 
I I think though that that he he

948
00:59:06,840 --> 00:59:10,160
really has to play very well now
he he's been he's been playing 

949
00:59:10,160 --> 00:59:14,200
good for sure but I I think you 
have to see some like pretty 

950
00:59:14,200 --> 00:59:21,080
spectacular stuff for them to to
just because they they it 

951
00:59:21,080 --> 00:59:24,480
shouldn't be a surprise for them
if he if he plays very well 

952
00:59:24,480 --> 00:59:32,360
because he has been and or but 
you know maybe maybe it will be 

953
00:59:33,120 --> 00:59:38,240
I guess all all I'm saying is so
like I don't recognize that for 

954
00:59:38,240 --> 00:59:42,600
sort of like one of the possible
outcomes rather than like an an 

955
00:59:42,760 --> 00:59:44,840
inevitability. 
Right. 

956
00:59:44,840 --> 00:59:46,720
Yeah. 
This is not me telling you to go

957
00:59:46,720 --> 00:59:49,480
load your bags up with Ty 
Chandler. 

958
00:59:49,760 --> 00:59:53,560
This is rather me saying that Ty
Chandler is probably a better 

959
00:59:53,560 --> 00:59:56,760
pick at this point right now, 
this week, with the 

960
00:59:56,760 --> 01:00:01,280
probabilities that we have then 
Rashad White or Bichon Robinson 

961
01:00:01,440 --> 01:00:04,600
or Alvin Kamara, just because 
you know. 

962
01:00:05,000 --> 01:00:07,480
Right. 
Let's just say you went drafting

963
01:00:07,480 --> 01:00:11,440
your portfolio and you always 
have found your spot yourself in

964
01:00:11,440 --> 01:00:14,480
a bad spot where you needed one 
of those late NFC South running 

965
01:00:14,480 --> 01:00:17,680
backs and you drafted them at 
random, you know, and you end up

966
01:00:17,680 --> 01:00:19,240
with an even distribution of all
of them. 

967
01:00:19,760 --> 01:00:23,640
Well, that means about 66% of 
your teams are going to be dead 

968
01:00:24,360 --> 01:00:27,760
because you took the wrong 
running back on two out of three

969
01:00:27,760 --> 01:00:31,760
of them, whereas Ty Chandler is 
like north of 70% to make the 

970
01:00:31,760 --> 01:00:34,520
playoffs. 
Yeah, sure, there are times 

971
01:00:34,520 --> 01:00:38,000
where Ty Chandler doesn't end up
giving you enough in the actual 

972
01:00:38,000 --> 01:00:42,360
playoffs to to do anything for 
you, but it it's still a better 

973
01:00:42,360 --> 01:00:44,280
bet than the NFC South running 
back. 

974
01:00:44,280 --> 01:00:47,200
So other. 
Guys on this chart and and 

975
01:00:47,200 --> 01:00:49,240
especially with how late he's 
going and. 

976
01:00:49,400 --> 01:00:51,160
Yeah, he's free. 
He's undrafted. 

977
01:00:51,840 --> 01:00:56,960
So like at at that spot you you 
like somewhere between 5:00 and 

978
01:00:56,960 --> 01:00:57,640
10:00. 
It's. 

979
01:00:57,760 --> 01:01:00,640
It's not what you want, but it's
fine. 

980
01:01:01,280 --> 01:01:03,280
Right. 
It's yeah, it's not the not the 

981
01:01:03,280 --> 01:01:05,400
end of the world if you get 
stuck with Ty Chandler it's one 

982
01:01:05,400 --> 01:01:08,680
of your running backs. 
But there's lots of guys on this

983
01:01:08,680 --> 01:01:11,720
chart that are guys that I'm 
interested in for for playoff 

984
01:01:11,720 --> 01:01:14,760
basketball, like Jared McKinnon 
all of a sudden becomes 

985
01:01:14,760 --> 01:01:18,960
interesting. 
You know maybe we get maybe we 

986
01:01:18,960 --> 01:01:22,800
get playoff jet again and he he 
does the McKinnon things or he's

987
01:01:22,800 --> 01:01:27,040
catching you know little shovel 
passes for touchdowns and Pat 

988
01:01:27,040 --> 01:01:30,520
Mahomes is doing the backyard 
football stuff and I'm God knows

989
01:01:30,520 --> 01:01:33,680
the Chiefs need weapons right 
and right. 

990
01:01:33,720 --> 01:01:37,360
Would it would it be the most 
surprising thing to you if we 

991
01:01:37,360 --> 01:01:40,600
get to the playoffs and all of a
sudden Jarek McKinnon has his 

992
01:01:40,600 --> 01:01:45,160
same role that he had when he? 
Was helping me 00 Shock, right? 

993
01:01:45,400 --> 01:01:48,000
Zero. 
The Chiefs already did this. 

994
01:01:48,000 --> 01:01:51,160
They already showed us like 
Jarek McKinnon is old. 

995
01:01:51,400 --> 01:01:56,040
We need him to have fresh legs, 
like he's so close to Dusty that

996
01:01:56,040 --> 01:02:00,200
last year we saved him the whole
season and he's still got dead 

997
01:02:00,200 --> 01:02:01,960
legs like halfway through the 
playoffs. 

998
01:02:02,240 --> 01:02:05,680
So they're like we got an extra 
saving this year. 

999
01:02:06,000 --> 01:02:07,720
And so I. 
And then they come to the 

1000
01:02:07,720 --> 01:02:10,040
playoffs. 
They're like, yeah, who's, who's

1001
01:02:10,240 --> 01:02:12,120
Pacheco? 
They're like, oh, thanks for 

1002
01:02:12,120 --> 01:02:17,560
being a battering ram all year. 
Now now now you can you can take

1003
01:02:17,560 --> 01:02:19,520
a rest. 
And and what I think is going to

1004
01:02:19,520 --> 01:02:22,720
happen is I think that Pacheco's
still going to be the the 

1005
01:02:22,880 --> 01:02:25,920
running back one on the team. 
But I think that McKinnon can 

1006
01:02:25,920 --> 01:02:29,080
certainly cut in and and get a 
little more work that he has 

1007
01:02:29,080 --> 01:02:32,040
seen and he can get those high 
value touches. 

1008
01:02:32,320 --> 01:02:36,480
And the later you progress in 
these playoff contests, the more

1009
01:02:36,480 --> 01:02:40,800
valuable low scores become, You 
know, because the scoring, what 

1010
01:02:40,800 --> 01:02:45,280
you need to beat relatively goes
down because people have less 

1011
01:02:45,280 --> 01:02:48,520
active players on their roster. 
And when you get into the Super 

1012
01:02:48,520 --> 01:02:52,040
Bowl, if it's Chiefs. 
More than 0 is good. 

1013
01:02:52,240 --> 01:02:54,120
More than zero is fantastic, 
right? 

1014
01:02:54,120 --> 01:02:57,160
So that's why guys like Jarek 
McKinnon are interesting. 

1015
01:02:57,160 --> 01:03:00,080
Even even guys like Kenneth 
Gainwell are interesting. 

1016
01:03:01,240 --> 01:03:06,040
I'll, I'll tell you, if the 
Bills keep winning, I'm gonna 

1017
01:03:06,040 --> 01:03:08,000
have a Latavius Murray share or 
two. 

1018
01:03:08,680 --> 01:03:13,480
I'm gonna do it. 
And Gross speaking. 

1019
01:03:13,480 --> 01:03:21,160
Of gross plays on on high 
probability playoff teams when 

1020
01:03:22,080 --> 01:03:25,280
any interest in in any of the 
the Ravens guys. 

1021
01:03:25,720 --> 01:03:30,320
Oh yeah, interest in both of the
Ravens guys and twice on Sunday 

1022
01:03:31,480 --> 01:03:34,160
I've even I have a Justice Hill 
share already. 

1023
01:03:34,800 --> 01:03:41,360
So the Ravens are so good that 
any piece on the Ravens is 

1024
01:03:41,360 --> 01:03:44,720
valuable and and that's 
something people have trouble 

1025
01:03:44,720 --> 01:03:47,880
wrapping their head around like 
they want to take the player. 

1026
01:03:47,880 --> 01:03:50,840
Like when you get to the last 
round and you're staring down 

1027
01:03:50,840 --> 01:03:56,200
like Justice Hill versus Bijon 
Robinson, like no one wants to 

1028
01:03:56,200 --> 01:03:59,000
click Justice Hill. 
But I'll tell you, Justice Hill 

1029
01:03:59,000 --> 01:04:03,240
is probably right about the same
level of value as Bijon Robinson

1030
01:04:03,240 --> 01:04:05,040
right now. 
And if you're playing for a 

1031
01:04:05,040 --> 01:04:08,360
scenario where the Ravens make 
the Super Bowl, he's a lot more 

1032
01:04:08,360 --> 01:04:11,760
valuable. 
So it's just it's rewiring your 

1033
01:04:11,760 --> 01:04:14,040
brain to think about the game in
the correct way. 

1034
01:04:14,040 --> 01:04:18,000
It's it's totally different than
other fantasy formats that, you 

1035
01:04:18,000 --> 01:04:21,040
know, the skill of the players 
and their fantasy production 

1036
01:04:21,400 --> 01:04:23,520
means so much less than it 
normally does. 

1037
01:04:23,520 --> 01:04:27,800
So yeah, both Ravens backs are 
very interesting, but I believe 

1038
01:04:27,800 --> 01:04:31,600
on this backup chart that those 
all, all the ones that we've 

1039
01:04:31,600 --> 01:04:34,760
touched on now are the ones that
I'm interested in. 

1040
01:04:35,560 --> 01:04:42,560
So you you you said you said 
boat Ravens backs are are are 

1041
01:04:42,680 --> 01:04:47,240
are you excluding one of Hill 
and and Keaton Mitchell and Gus 

1042
01:04:47,240 --> 01:04:49,640
Edwards. 
Yeah, normally I'm excluding 

1043
01:04:49,640 --> 01:04:51,600
Hill. 
I'm taking Keaton Mitchell and 

1044
01:04:51,600 --> 01:04:54,440
Gus Edwards on the majority of 
my Ravens teams. 

1045
01:04:54,720 --> 01:04:59,360
If I am in a situation where I 
really need another running back

1046
01:05:00,160 --> 01:05:04,480
and I have a bet where it makes 
sense for Justice Hill, he's one

1047
01:05:04,480 --> 01:05:06,360
where I would be willing to mix 
in it. 

1048
01:05:06,360 --> 01:05:09,320
I'm not going to have a lot. 
I literally might have one team 

1049
01:05:09,320 --> 01:05:13,600
or two teams with Justice Hill, 
but it's like he's a Raven, so 

1050
01:05:13,600 --> 01:05:15,080
the Ravens should get. 
Drafted. 

1051
01:05:15,560 --> 01:05:18,880
And same same thing with the 
49ers, like Eli Mitchell, done 

1052
01:05:18,880 --> 01:05:20,640
nothing all season. 
Guess what? 

1053
01:05:20,760 --> 01:05:23,320
He is a 49er, so he is now 
draftable. 

1054
01:05:23,320 --> 01:05:26,560
Right. 
Or or if you you mentioned 

1055
01:05:26,560 --> 01:05:30,240
Kenneth Gainwell, well, Kenneth 
Gainwell feels like super 

1056
01:05:30,240 --> 01:05:32,240
similar to Justice Hill. 
Yeah, yeah. 

1057
01:05:32,360 --> 01:05:34,080
Same like name Brown, Justice 
Hill. 

1058
01:05:34,480 --> 01:05:42,960
Yep, exactly. 
And nobody else here. 

1059
01:05:43,240 --> 01:05:50,520
And we're talking about, well, I
I guess maybe it's worth diving 

1060
01:05:50,520 --> 01:05:54,000
into like Echan what he did. 
It seemed like he played he 

1061
01:05:54,000 --> 01:05:58,880
actually Echan played a lot more
this week than than last week. 

1062
01:05:58,880 --> 01:06:02,400
So let me just confirm that 
that's the case. 

1063
01:06:03,400 --> 01:06:13,480
So Devanah Chan in week 14, so 
he played 29 snaps and so he I 

1064
01:06:13,480 --> 01:06:20,520
guess he only even Monday night 
he only played 42% snaps. 

1065
01:06:20,600 --> 01:06:23,040
Yeah, what I will. 
What I'll say about a Chan's 

1066
01:06:23,040 --> 01:06:27,400
usage is he played about the 
same percentage of snaps, but 

1067
01:06:27,400 --> 01:06:30,360
when the snaps came was 
different, right? 

1068
01:06:30,360 --> 01:06:34,280
In the previous week all of his 
work came when the game was out 

1069
01:06:34,280 --> 01:06:37,160
of hand. 
They rested Mostert and it was 

1070
01:06:37,160 --> 01:06:40,840
kind of like AI think Gretsch 
called it extended pre season 

1071
01:06:41,000 --> 01:06:44,800
for Devonna Chant right Just 
kick the tires, make sure 

1072
01:06:44,800 --> 01:06:48,320
everything feels good, get you 
some work you know get get you 

1073
01:06:48,320 --> 01:06:51,880
back in game shape and get ready
for the playoff push here. 

1074
01:06:52,160 --> 01:06:56,680
And then in the game that 
mattered last night he was 

1075
01:06:56,680 --> 01:06:58,160
getting work all through the 
game. 

1076
01:06:58,200 --> 01:07:02,560
You know they they actually what
was really interesting to me is 

1077
01:07:02,560 --> 01:07:09,400
the Tyree kill role was occupied
by a Chan and a mixture of 

1078
01:07:09,720 --> 01:07:12,520
Barrios and Cedric Wilson. 
It was like, we can't. 

1079
01:07:12,760 --> 01:07:16,680
It was it was the most Moneyball
thing I I've ever seen is like, 

1080
01:07:16,680 --> 01:07:20,360
well, we can't you know, have 
anyone step in as a one for one 

1081
01:07:20,360 --> 01:07:23,400
replacement for Tyree kill. 
But we can recreate them in the 

1082
01:07:23,400 --> 01:07:26,480
aggregate. 
So a Chan you're the fast Tyree 

1083
01:07:26,480 --> 01:07:32,600
kill and Barrios you're Jet 
sweeping Gadgety, Tyree Kill and

1084
01:07:32,600 --> 01:07:35,840
Cedric Wilson, you're downfield 
Tyree Kill. 

1085
01:07:35,840 --> 01:07:40,240
And with your powers combined, 
you're all 70 ish percent Tyree 

1086
01:07:40,240 --> 01:07:40,600
Kill. 
Yeah. 

1087
01:07:41,080 --> 01:07:43,640
Worthless. 
Yeah, I mean, but. 

1088
01:07:43,760 --> 01:07:47,120
I'm I'm looking at even even 
with that low snap. 

1089
01:07:47,120 --> 01:07:52,400
Sure his expected points was he 
had 18 expected points. 

1090
01:07:53,240 --> 01:07:59,360
Now he like he's orbitry in 
playoff basketball and so not 

1091
01:07:59,360 --> 01:08:01,040
really talking to the market 
there. 

1092
01:08:01,240 --> 01:08:04,960
But I know I've definitely heard
like sentiment as like hey why 

1093
01:08:04,960 --> 01:08:09,200
why is H Chan's projection so 
high Why do people like him so 

1094
01:08:09,200 --> 01:08:11,920
much? 
Like even though he's he's not 

1095
01:08:11,920 --> 01:08:14,120
he's that he's not the starting 
running back. 

1096
01:08:14,640 --> 01:08:19,840
But he it's it does seem like 
he's got like a particular role 

1097
01:08:19,840 --> 01:08:25,680
now and it's it's I guess 
especially with Tyrique out that

1098
01:08:25,680 --> 01:08:32,640
like it's it's not even right to
call it a I'm not I'm not sure 

1099
01:08:32,640 --> 01:08:34,359
what I'm trying to say it's it's
it's it's. 

1100
01:08:34,399 --> 01:08:37,600
It's, yeah, it's different. 
It's an unusual role, but it 

1101
01:08:37,680 --> 01:08:41,520
still scores points. 
Yeah, it's the most efficient 

1102
01:08:41,680 --> 01:08:44,080
rushing offense in the league, 
right? 

1103
01:08:44,439 --> 01:08:49,000
And they it's it's honestly very
similar to the San Francisco 

1104
01:08:49,000 --> 01:08:51,680
system. 
And and so you've seen this 

1105
01:08:51,680 --> 01:08:57,200
before with backs like Devonta 
Freeman and Tevin Coleman. 

1106
01:08:57,200 --> 01:09:01,880
Like you can have two guys that 
do you know really well in that 

1107
01:09:01,880 --> 01:09:03,880
offense. 
They both can be viable fantasy 

1108
01:09:03,880 --> 01:09:06,359
assets. 
And then it just so happens that

1109
01:09:06,359 --> 01:09:09,960
you have such an electric 
offense that scores so many 

1110
01:09:09,960 --> 01:09:13,000
points. 
And really, I mean as a an aside

1111
01:09:13,000 --> 01:09:16,399
about what Tyree Kill does for 
this offense, gosh, the the 

1112
01:09:16,560 --> 01:09:19,200
contrast between the Dolphins 
with him on the field and 

1113
01:09:19,200 --> 01:09:24,600
without was pretty stark. 
I mean, I I know that it's it's 

1114
01:09:24,600 --> 01:09:28,200
a long shot for Tyreek to 
actually win MVP, but I feel 

1115
01:09:28,200 --> 01:09:32,920
like last night was the best 
case you could have that Tyreek 

1116
01:09:32,920 --> 01:09:36,680
is the MVP in the league. 
Because you saw that Dolphins 

1117
01:09:36,680 --> 01:09:41,479
team go from like absolute 
nightmare for a defensive 

1118
01:09:41,479 --> 01:09:46,040
coordinator to deal with to, you
know, they were they looked very

1119
01:09:46,040 --> 01:09:48,439
mortal without Tyreek on the 
field. 

1120
01:09:48,880 --> 01:09:53,800
So yeah, you know my my two 
cents is Tyree kills the MVP 

1121
01:09:54,240 --> 01:09:58,240
which you know feel it feels 
weird to like stand Tyreek 

1122
01:09:58,240 --> 01:10:00,000
because I have so much Tyreek 
exposure. 

1123
01:10:00,000 --> 01:10:02,240
He's like in my opinion clear 
the MVP. 

1124
01:10:02,480 --> 01:10:06,000
I also think he's like probably 
still a pretty garbage person 

1125
01:10:06,000 --> 01:10:08,040
like he's done some really awful
stuff. 

1126
01:10:08,160 --> 01:10:11,120
But so it feels very weird to 
stand Tyree kill. 

1127
01:10:11,120 --> 01:10:13,240
But I'm. 
I'm trying to separate who he is

1128
01:10:13,240 --> 01:10:15,280
as a person and who he is as a 
football player. 

1129
01:10:15,680 --> 01:10:18,080
Because there's lots of guys 
that you know in the league, 

1130
01:10:18,080 --> 01:10:21,640
past, present and I'm I'm sure 
future that are going to be 

1131
01:10:21,640 --> 01:10:24,120
great athletes do great stuff on
the field and they might, they 

1132
01:10:24,120 --> 01:10:28,240
might not be the most, might not
be the best examples of what we 

1133
01:10:28,240 --> 01:10:31,400
should look up to off the field.
But regardless, he has an 

1134
01:10:31,400 --> 01:10:35,680
enormous impact for his team. 
Yeah and that's definitely 

1135
01:10:35,680 --> 01:10:40,800
notable and and we're at 
speaking about through the lands

1136
01:10:41,040 --> 01:10:46,120
of fantasy football it's it's 
honestly one of the it's a worry

1137
01:10:46,120 --> 01:10:50,920
for me with some of my I I've 
obviously had heavy Dolphins 

1138
01:10:51,680 --> 01:10:56,720
stacks and exposure it it is a 
worry for me that if if if they 

1139
01:10:56,720 --> 01:11:00,760
can't figure out the Tyreek 
stuff that like it could be that

1140
01:11:00,760 --> 01:11:06,600
the Dolphins offensive stacks go
from like high advance rates to 

1141
01:11:06,600 --> 01:11:10,720
the play offs that are just like
landmines in the play offs. 

1142
01:11:12,240 --> 01:11:14,160
Yeah, what? 
I'll what I'll say to that and 

1143
01:11:14,160 --> 01:11:17,240
you can, you can move us on to 
the next chart while I finish 

1144
01:11:17,240 --> 01:11:19,640
this point here, 'cause I know 
we've taken a little while to 

1145
01:11:19,640 --> 01:11:23,520
get through these so far. 
But what I think is going to 

1146
01:11:23,520 --> 01:11:28,240
happen next week is regardless 
of if Tyreke is active or 

1147
01:11:28,240 --> 01:11:33,080
inactive, this Dolphin's offense
is going to look a lot better 

1148
01:11:33,080 --> 01:11:35,280
than they did without him on 
Monday night. 

1149
01:11:35,760 --> 01:11:39,320
And that's because Mike McDaniel
is a good coach and he will have

1150
01:11:39,320 --> 01:11:42,160
time to come up with a plan. 
The the fact that they were 

1151
01:11:42,320 --> 01:11:45,600
operating off of a game plan 
where they, you know, of course 

1152
01:11:45,600 --> 01:11:47,760
you're game planning around 
Tyreek every week. 

1153
01:11:47,760 --> 01:11:51,120
Like that's your best player you
you could be game planning 

1154
01:11:51,120 --> 01:11:53,280
around him. 
And so when he's out, all of a 

1155
01:11:53,280 --> 01:11:55,040
sudden you're trying to adjust 
on the fly. 

1156
01:11:55,320 --> 01:11:58,920
Now they have an entire week 
where they've got an expectation

1157
01:11:58,960 --> 01:12:00,720
of is he going to be active for 
the game? 

1158
01:12:00,720 --> 01:12:04,520
If he is active, how many snaps 
can we realistically use him 

1159
01:12:04,520 --> 01:12:06,840
for? 
And then like I mentioned, you 

1160
01:12:06,840 --> 01:12:10,680
know, we saw a Chan kind of get 
some of that Tyreek kill work, 

1161
01:12:11,640 --> 01:12:14,000
you know, running raps out of 
the backfield or doing some of 

1162
01:12:14,000 --> 01:12:19,080
the the jet sweeper gadgety type
stuff where I would anticipate a

1163
01:12:19,080 --> 01:12:21,040
Chan taking even more of that 
on. 

1164
01:12:21,040 --> 01:12:24,520
They'll probably use a lot of a 
Chan and most of it on the field

1165
01:12:24,520 --> 01:12:27,640
at the same time and and have a 
Chan and some of that Tyree kill

1166
01:12:27,640 --> 01:12:32,120
roll and then they'll have you 
know a a smarter way to deploy 

1167
01:12:32,120 --> 01:12:34,360
those receivers of barrios and 
cetera. 

1168
01:12:35,200 --> 01:12:37,200
Cause one of the things about 
the dolphins, too, is that 

1169
01:12:37,200 --> 01:12:42,640
they're like very, very fast. 
So like, there's other parts to 

1170
01:12:42,640 --> 01:12:45,520
Tyreek's game that they just 
can't replicate and and and 

1171
01:12:45,520 --> 01:12:50,240
replace. 
But it's like I I I do have 

1172
01:12:50,240 --> 01:12:53,560
confident confidence that 
they're going to have very fast 

1173
01:12:53,560 --> 01:12:57,080
players on that on that field. 
And Mike and Daniels is going to

1174
01:12:57,080 --> 01:13:00,360
find a smart way to, like, take 
advantage of that. 

1175
01:13:01,960 --> 01:13:05,600
Yeah. 
So we're we're on our running 

1176
01:13:05,600 --> 01:13:10,640
back efficiency chart here and 
you know if you're just now 

1177
01:13:10,640 --> 01:13:17,720
joining us in you know week 14, 
I don't know how you got here if

1178
01:13:17,720 --> 01:13:20,000
you weren't here earlier but 
I'll I'll give you the breakdown

1179
01:13:20,000 --> 01:13:23,200
for what this part is, is 
showing us here. 

1180
01:13:23,720 --> 01:13:27,480
The X axis is the expected 
fantasy points for a player 

1181
01:13:27,760 --> 01:13:31,480
based on their opportunities and
where they come on the field for

1182
01:13:31,480 --> 01:13:33,880
rushing. 
And the Y axis is their expected

1183
01:13:33,880 --> 01:13:37,880
fantasy points for receiving. 
And so then where their dot is 

1184
01:13:37,880 --> 01:13:41,920
located on the chart is going to
be in these little diagonal kind

1185
01:13:41,920 --> 01:13:46,840
of tiers or or bands of expected
fantasy points total for the 

1186
01:13:46,840 --> 01:13:49,520
week. 
So for example we see Kyron 

1187
01:13:49,520 --> 01:13:55,080
Williams here with 20 or more 
expected fantasy points here. 

1188
01:13:55,640 --> 01:13:59,680
Absolutely elite role. 
He is in the Todd Gurley role 

1189
01:13:59,880 --> 01:14:04,920
and he is wearing it well. 
Kyron Williams is like, if we 

1190
01:14:04,920 --> 01:14:09,000
had to redraft right now for the
final three weeks for the 

1191
01:14:09,000 --> 01:14:14,080
fantasy playoffs, I think Kyron 
Williams is probably a top three

1192
01:14:14,080 --> 01:14:18,160
running back right? 
Like it's just the role is 

1193
01:14:18,160 --> 01:14:21,400
elite. 
Elite and he's doing well with 

1194
01:14:21,400 --> 01:14:24,720
it and and it's so much of it 
comes from the passing game too 

1195
01:14:24,720 --> 01:14:27,680
that it's just it's a guy that 
can't get game scripted out. 

1196
01:14:27,680 --> 01:14:30,880
It's a guy with a really strong 
floor and an incredible ceiling.

1197
01:14:30,880 --> 01:14:36,320
So yeah, like Kyron's incredible
now for playoff best ball. 

1198
01:14:36,600 --> 01:14:37,920
It's not a guy I'm touching 
right now. 

1199
01:14:37,920 --> 01:14:39,960
The Rams are too low a 
probability to make the 

1200
01:14:39,960 --> 01:14:43,120
playoffs. 
And in the event they do make 

1201
01:14:43,120 --> 01:14:47,680
the playoffs as they are rising,
their cost in ADP is not going 

1202
01:14:47,680 --> 01:14:51,080
to rise enough or I'm punished 
for not having Kyron Williams 

1203
01:14:51,080 --> 01:14:52,520
earlier. 
So that's a guy I'm willing to 

1204
01:14:52,520 --> 01:14:58,560
wait and see on. 
I mean other there. 

1205
01:14:58,600 --> 01:15:00,600
There's not a ton of takeaways 
that we're going to give you 

1206
01:15:00,600 --> 01:15:02,520
here that you don't already 
know. 

1207
01:15:02,520 --> 01:15:05,320
Like you know that you're 
locking CMC in every week. 

1208
01:15:05,920 --> 01:15:08,760
I guess we can touch on Zach 
Moss here for people that might 

1209
01:15:08,760 --> 01:15:11,560
be having start set decisions 
with Zach Moss in the playoffs, 

1210
01:15:11,960 --> 01:15:17,000
because for my eyes, he's turned
back into a pumpkin. 

1211
01:15:17,000 --> 01:15:20,720
He looks much more like the Zach
Moss of the Buffalo Bills than 

1212
01:15:20,720 --> 01:15:24,560
he did the Zach Moss of the 
early season Indianapolis Colts 

1213
01:15:24,560 --> 01:15:27,840
here, and I don't know exactly 
why that is. 

1214
01:15:28,080 --> 01:15:30,920
It's probably you know a 
confluence of factors. 

1215
01:15:30,920 --> 01:15:33,960
I I would say his legs probably 
aren't as fresh now. 

1216
01:15:34,000 --> 01:15:36,880
You know he he got beat up a 
little bit over the season and 

1217
01:15:36,880 --> 01:15:40,080
he's wearing the the workload of
an NFL season on him now and 

1218
01:15:40,600 --> 01:15:43,400
that that certainly could be it.
It also could be he's just he's 

1219
01:15:43,400 --> 01:15:46,640
just playing out of his mind 
early that he he knew he had an 

1220
01:15:46,640 --> 01:15:48,480
opportunity. 
He only had one shot. 

1221
01:15:48,480 --> 01:15:51,880
He didn't want to miss his 
chance to blow and he balled out

1222
01:15:51,880 --> 01:15:55,000
for a little bit, but the role 
is still really good. 

1223
01:15:55,040 --> 01:15:59,680
But dude is not been efficient 
with a role like he was earlier 

1224
01:15:59,680 --> 01:16:02,200
in the season. 
So, Draco, do you think that 

1225
01:16:02,200 --> 01:16:06,040
what we've seen from Zach Moss 
lately is the new normal or do 

1226
01:16:06,040 --> 01:16:09,360
you think that the pendulum will
swing back towards the middle 

1227
01:16:09,360 --> 01:16:12,160
and we'll get something in 
between what we saw early season

1228
01:16:12,160 --> 01:16:14,520
versus the last two weeks, I 
think? 

1229
01:16:14,520 --> 01:16:22,800
While Taylor is out Zach Moss is
in the Rashad White tier of like

1230
01:16:22,800 --> 01:16:28,280
strong role. 
Not a great player and will will

1231
01:16:28,280 --> 01:16:32,600
will be some volatility there 
because like Rashad White has 

1232
01:16:32,600 --> 01:16:36,520
had this role all season but his
start to the year was like 

1233
01:16:36,600 --> 01:16:40,040
awful. 
It was terrible and so I I think

1234
01:16:40,040 --> 01:16:42,440
those are just games that you 
have to expect to be in the 

1235
01:16:42,440 --> 01:16:51,160
range of outcomes for players in
that tier and and so if if if it

1236
01:16:51,160 --> 01:16:54,080
it it gets more interesting like
I think that probably the most 

1237
01:16:54,080 --> 01:16:58,200
interesting start to decision 
might be like Zach Moss or 

1238
01:16:58,360 --> 01:17:04,480
Kenneth Walker and like it's 
like that that's that's probably

1239
01:17:04,480 --> 01:17:09,240
where it's it's it's sort of 
tricky because Kent Walker is 

1240
01:17:09,240 --> 01:17:14,600
like it is really good but then 
you you you never know when when

1241
01:17:14,600 --> 01:17:19,040
his like his what what's gonna 
happen with his role and all 

1242
01:17:19,040 --> 01:17:24,240
that sort of stuff yeah but I 
think anybody anybody better 

1243
01:17:24,240 --> 01:17:27,040
than and then Kenneth Walker 
you're you're you're start 

1244
01:17:27,040 --> 01:17:32,240
you're without any questions 
starting Zack Moss but anybody 

1245
01:17:32,240 --> 01:17:37,040
worse like I'm I'm starting Zack
Moss over Chuba Hubbard right 

1246
01:17:38,120 --> 01:17:43,480
like over sorry. 
Yeah, I think so. 

1247
01:17:44,000 --> 01:17:45,840
Chuba's role is pretty good too,
though. 

1248
01:17:45,840 --> 01:17:50,040
Chuba's also in the Rashad White
role now right there, I think. 

1249
01:17:50,080 --> 01:17:53,680
I think all three of those guys 
are kind of right. 

1250
01:17:53,800 --> 01:17:58,160
That's fair. 
I I do have a couple that I 

1251
01:17:58,160 --> 01:18:02,240
thought were good like start 
sits and and the way I think is 

1252
01:18:02,240 --> 01:18:05,480
going to be the most helpful for
people is rather than giving 

1253
01:18:05,480 --> 01:18:08,440
them a start sit for this 
specific week with you know 

1254
01:18:08,440 --> 01:18:10,280
respect to the match up that 
they're going to be in. 

1255
01:18:10,680 --> 01:18:11,920
Let's just kind of do it. 
Match up. 

1256
01:18:11,920 --> 01:18:14,440
Agnostic. 
So, like, you know things will 

1257
01:18:14,440 --> 01:18:15,920
change. 
Matchups are different. 

1258
01:18:16,080 --> 01:18:17,960
Injuries happen. 
You know stuff's gonna change 

1259
01:18:17,960 --> 01:18:19,480
over the course of this fantasy 
playoffs. 

1260
01:18:19,480 --> 01:18:24,080
But just in a vacuum, you want 
Zach Moss or do you want James 

1261
01:18:24,080 --> 01:18:30,400
Cook? 
James Cook Jaylen Warren sorry, 

1262
01:18:30,400 --> 01:18:32,720
just by the way Jaylen Warren 
that that's that's what I meant 

1263
01:18:32,720 --> 01:18:35,760
to say and. 
Gotcha, gotcha and. 

1264
01:18:37,120 --> 01:18:42,120
But let's let's keep going. 
Zach Moss or Javonte Williams? 

1265
01:18:44,000 --> 01:18:52,720
And I I think, I think that's 
sort of like a it is, yeah, it's

1266
01:18:52,720 --> 01:18:54,200
Juvanto. 
It is Juvanto. 

1267
01:18:54,640 --> 01:18:57,040
I yeah, I think that's a really 
close one, right, 'cause it's 

1268
01:18:57,040 --> 01:19:00,560
like the the Moss role seems 
like a little more secure. 

1269
01:19:00,560 --> 01:19:03,800
Like Juvanto's role is, is 
growing and looks really good, 

1270
01:19:04,040 --> 01:19:07,040
and he seems like the better 
player with more talent and 

1271
01:19:07,040 --> 01:19:09,680
upside. 
But Moss, we feel like a little 

1272
01:19:09,680 --> 01:19:11,880
bit more confident in projecting
volume for him. 

1273
01:19:11,880 --> 01:19:14,440
So I think it's tricky. 
But I I do agree it would be 

1274
01:19:14,440 --> 01:19:18,360
Javonta for me as well, yeah. 
I I agree with you there. 

1275
01:19:18,760 --> 01:19:21,520
Here's a Here's AI. 
Don't know this one's 

1276
01:19:21,520 --> 01:19:24,680
particularly close, but I I 
guess worth it. 

1277
01:19:24,680 --> 01:19:28,000
Might be a decision people have 
to make, AJ Dillon or Zach Moss.

1278
01:19:29,800 --> 01:19:32,520
And Zach Moss. 
Yeah, AJ Dillon has looked a 

1279
01:19:32,520 --> 01:19:34,960
little better lately, but I I do
agree with Zach Moss. 

1280
01:19:35,840 --> 01:19:40,160
It's like he he he would he he 
he won't have the role to be in 

1281
01:19:40,160 --> 01:19:45,440
the he's played himself out of 
like any chance really of being 

1282
01:19:45,440 --> 01:19:50,320
in the Zach Miles role. 
Here's a Here's an interesting 

1283
01:19:50,320 --> 01:19:55,120
one. 
Now granted, we saw this guy get

1284
01:19:55,120 --> 01:20:00,560
back to his usual check down 
magnet ways last week, Austin 

1285
01:20:00,560 --> 01:20:05,880
Eckler, but he's also losing 
work now to Joshua Kelly and 

1286
01:20:05,880 --> 01:20:09,200
Isaiah Spiller. 
Austin Eckler, Zack Moss. 

1287
01:20:14,440 --> 01:20:17,760
Jeez. 
How stupid is this game by the 

1288
01:20:17,760 --> 01:20:19,760
way? 
Like if you ask if I asked you 

1289
01:20:19,760 --> 01:20:24,720
this on August 1st of this year,
you'd tell me to get the fuck 

1290
01:20:24,720 --> 01:20:26,200
out of here. 
Austin. 

1291
01:20:26,480 --> 01:20:32,480
Zack Moss. 
Yeah, I I think, I think that 

1292
01:20:32,720 --> 01:20:37,760
would would Herbert out. 
I think that those push it in 

1293
01:20:37,840 --> 01:20:40,280
into Zach Moss. 
It's so gross. 

1294
01:20:40,280 --> 01:20:44,360
I think it's pretty close. 
I God the Charger. 

1295
01:20:44,360 --> 01:20:47,040
The Chargers look so, so bad to 
me though. 

1296
01:20:47,040 --> 01:20:49,200
Like. 
That's, that's what I'm saying. 

1297
01:20:49,480 --> 01:20:53,920
The The craziest thing to me is 
a lot of people, and myself 

1298
01:20:53,920 --> 01:20:56,680
included, I won't, you know, 
hand up I I thought that Kellen 

1299
01:20:56,680 --> 01:20:59,280
Moore would do a lot to help the
Chargers offense. 

1300
01:20:59,680 --> 01:21:04,440
It turns out now as a as a die 
hard Cowboys fan, there were 

1301
01:21:04,440 --> 01:21:08,560
lots of things that I didn't 
like that Kellen Moore did last 

1302
01:21:08,560 --> 01:21:10,800
year. 
There were lots of there is 

1303
01:21:10,800 --> 01:21:12,920
stuff where it's like dude, what
what is this play? 

1304
01:21:12,920 --> 01:21:16,560
Like what are we doing here? 
Or like wow that was some really

1305
01:21:16,560 --> 01:21:19,080
cute Boise State gadgety 
bullshit. 

1306
01:21:19,080 --> 01:21:22,000
I bet that looks really good 
when you're playing against 

1307
01:21:22,000 --> 01:21:25,440
future Safeway bag boys but this
does not work in the NFL. 

1308
01:21:26,400 --> 01:21:29,240
But of course, the Cowboys 
offense is like #1 in points 

1309
01:21:29,240 --> 01:21:32,760
while he was the offensive 
coordinator, so I I thought that

1310
01:21:32,760 --> 01:21:36,680
he was at least like, pretty 
good with the Chargers. 

1311
01:21:37,400 --> 01:21:38,840
I don't know that that's the 
case. 

1312
01:21:38,840 --> 01:21:41,720
Like it is Kellen Moore a fraud.
I know we're like, way off the 

1313
01:21:41,720 --> 01:21:46,080
rails here, but like Kellen 
Moore fraud territory, 'cause he

1314
01:21:46,080 --> 01:21:49,680
was like getting potential. 
Like this guy could become a 

1315
01:21:49,680 --> 01:21:53,320
head coach candidate if he looks
good with the Chargers, right? 

1316
01:21:53,320 --> 01:21:56,240
Like that was for sure in the 
rumor mill during the summer. 

1317
01:21:57,000 --> 01:22:04,120
Yeah, and I I I don't, I don't, 
I don't want to like snap to a 

1318
01:22:04,120 --> 01:22:06,200
judgement. 
Now I know we've had almost a 

1319
01:22:06,200 --> 01:22:10,960
full season and maybe some, 
maybe some other factors 

1320
01:22:10,960 --> 01:22:13,880
involved. 
Like they have had injuries and 

1321
01:22:13,880 --> 01:22:17,600
like with those injuries, like 
Quinton Johnson has become like 

1322
01:22:18,240 --> 01:22:21,200
forcibly a key part of the 
offense. 

1323
01:22:21,800 --> 01:22:24,840
Like they did not want to make 
Quinton Johnson a key part of 

1324
01:22:24,840 --> 01:22:27,240
the offense, and they say they 
simply have no choice. 

1325
01:22:27,840 --> 01:22:32,160
Which is a an entirely different
problem when your first round 

1326
01:22:32,160 --> 01:22:36,760
rookie wide receiver that you 
took a ahead of multiple other 

1327
01:22:37,120 --> 01:22:40,400
great rookie wide receivers that
we're seeing ball out in their 

1328
01:22:40,400 --> 01:22:43,240
first year. 
When it's a problem that you 

1329
01:22:43,240 --> 01:22:46,680
have to involve your first round
rookie wide receiver, there's 

1330
01:22:46,680 --> 01:22:50,680
something wrong with this you. 
May have a yeah, you may. 

1331
01:22:50,800 --> 01:22:53,520
You're you're there may be some 
dysfunction within your team. 

1332
01:22:54,080 --> 01:22:57,000
Yeah, there's there's a. 
Lot and and that was my next one

1333
01:22:57,000 --> 01:23:02,920
I I I do wonder if like it's 
some some of the issues that 

1334
01:23:02,920 --> 01:23:06,040
Callum Murray's having is like 
from the systemic from like the 

1335
01:23:06,040 --> 01:23:14,680
head coach because I I I don't 
wanna say he's bad but when when

1336
01:23:14,680 --> 01:23:21,520
you have these frustrations 
build up and like the with him 

1337
01:23:21,520 --> 01:23:25,960
happen to like being forced to 
go from like very aggressive to 

1338
01:23:25,960 --> 01:23:31,840
like just a a standard boomer 
coach and it it there to me that

1339
01:23:31,840 --> 01:23:35,720
is some indication there that 
like he's not a he's not a a 

1340
01:23:35,720 --> 01:23:41,480
strong coach where he he's like 
respected and and and just gets 

1341
01:23:41,480 --> 01:23:46,560
to do what he wants or or or 
gets to call let's to command 

1342
01:23:46,560 --> 01:23:51,880
things and so I I I wonder if 
that could be like a yeah and an

1343
01:23:51,880 --> 01:23:53,960
obstacle for callummer to work 
true. 

1344
01:23:55,000 --> 01:23:59,240
And. 
I think it's certainly true that

1345
01:23:59,520 --> 01:24:05,360
what of of Callummer's success 
in Dallas, you you have to 

1346
01:24:05,360 --> 01:24:10,520
assign a good portion of it to 
Kevin McCarty like that we 

1347
01:24:10,520 --> 01:24:12,840
weren't aware of before, like 
that's new information. 

1348
01:24:13,440 --> 01:24:17,600
Yeah, and it's it's so hard to 
for us to evaluate these NFL 

1349
01:24:17,600 --> 01:24:19,480
coaches from the outside looking
in. 

1350
01:24:19,760 --> 01:24:23,480
But one thing that I'll say is 
we should pay attention to when 

1351
01:24:23,480 --> 01:24:27,200
these guys tell on themselves, 
when when they make a decision 

1352
01:24:27,200 --> 01:24:29,760
that we know is a really bad 
decision. 

1353
01:24:29,760 --> 01:24:32,680
There's lots of stuff where we 
might not have all the details 

1354
01:24:32,680 --> 01:24:35,760
or we don't understand, You 
know, we get frustrated when 

1355
01:24:36,120 --> 01:24:39,200
players that we really like or 
we're excited about for fantasy 

1356
01:24:39,200 --> 01:24:41,200
aren't being used as much as we 
want, right? 

1357
01:24:41,200 --> 01:24:43,200
Everyone wants more Jackson, 
Smith and Jigba. 

1358
01:24:43,480 --> 01:24:45,920
You know why is it getting more 
carries right? 

1359
01:24:47,000 --> 01:24:51,400
But there are times where a 
coach will make a decision that 

1360
01:24:51,400 --> 01:24:55,880
is demonstrably bad and that's 
like the 4th down calls exact. 

1361
01:24:55,880 --> 01:24:57,520
That's exactly what I'm getting 
too. 

1362
01:24:57,520 --> 01:25:01,240
And and so when a coach tells on
themselves like that when 

1363
01:25:01,240 --> 01:25:05,080
they're doing something that 
like any good Madden player like

1364
01:25:05,080 --> 01:25:08,360
if you were playing Madden 
competitively online and like no

1365
01:25:08,360 --> 01:25:11,720
one is making that mistake and 
if they do like you're getting 

1366
01:25:11,720 --> 01:25:17,200
laughed at over an Xbox headset 
like then it's that's that's a 

1367
01:25:17,200 --> 01:25:21,160
good enough when the. 7 year old
is calling you stupid. 

1368
01:25:21,600 --> 01:25:24,640
Yeah, it's a good enough context
clue that this guy, these 

1369
01:25:24,640 --> 01:25:27,280
coaches that make those types of
mistakes, don't know what 

1370
01:25:27,280 --> 01:25:30,600
they're doing at at the very 
least on like a macro level. 

1371
01:25:30,960 --> 01:25:34,920
And you know, this is a tough 
league and so if you don't have,

1372
01:25:35,440 --> 01:25:37,720
if you don't have it on a macro 
level, it doesn't really matter 

1373
01:25:37,720 --> 01:25:40,840
if you know you're good on the 
micro or or vice versa, Like you

1374
01:25:40,840 --> 01:25:42,360
gotta gotta be able to put it 
all together. 

1375
01:25:42,360 --> 01:25:45,400
But anyway, that's enough. 
Just to make that like, usable 

1376
01:25:45,960 --> 01:25:49,760
if if the Chargers coaching 
staff is in place next year, 

1377
01:25:50,760 --> 01:25:54,680
like is it an AT coaching staff 
where we just have to like 

1378
01:25:54,680 --> 01:25:59,440
severely dock players or is it 
like one of those sort of D 

1379
01:25:59,440 --> 01:26:02,680
coaching Staffs where it's it's 
not ideal, but we'll work with 

1380
01:26:02,680 --> 01:26:04,680
it. 
I think it's closer to D because

1381
01:26:04,680 --> 01:26:07,320
we've seen elite production from
Keenan. 

1382
01:26:07,400 --> 01:26:11,360
We, you know, we, I think Eckler
still would approve it without 

1383
01:26:11,400 --> 01:26:14,920
IA. 
And if you hear my question, I 

1384
01:26:14,920 --> 01:26:20,640
was like do we fade Canaan 
Island next year like that that 

1385
01:26:20,640 --> 01:26:27,760
that would be silly and that 
would I I I I guess maybe I 

1386
01:26:27,760 --> 01:26:30,800
don't know does that even impact
like some of the like secondary 

1387
01:26:30,800 --> 01:26:33,440
pieces I. 
I yeah, I I think actually as I 

1388
01:26:33,440 --> 01:26:39,520
think through this a good way to
play that in best ball is be 

1389
01:26:39,520 --> 01:26:43,720
happy to take one or two of 
those players but be more 

1390
01:26:43,720 --> 01:26:47,840
hesitant to take deep team 
stacks on teams like that. 

1391
01:26:48,200 --> 01:26:52,680
So like for example if Arthur 
Smith is still with the Falcons 

1392
01:26:53,280 --> 01:26:56,240
and of course this is all gonna 
be price sensitive, right? 

1393
01:26:56,240 --> 01:26:59,520
Like we we don't know what the 
prices are gonna be but like if 

1394
01:26:59,520 --> 01:27:03,280
Arthur Smith is still with the 
Falcons I'm way less excited to 

1395
01:27:03,280 --> 01:27:06,920
take like a Falcon's team stack.
Then like I might get one or two

1396
01:27:06,920 --> 01:27:10,600
Falcons pieces at a good price 
And so you know same thing with 

1397
01:27:10,600 --> 01:27:14,880
the Chargers if it's still 
Staley there I'm I'm much less 

1398
01:27:14,880 --> 01:27:17,560
excited to take a full Chargers 
team stack. 

1399
01:27:17,840 --> 01:27:21,280
I might take a, you know, one or
two pieces, but getting the 

1400
01:27:21,280 --> 01:27:24,760
full, you know, four or five 
player team stack is something I

1401
01:27:24,760 --> 01:27:28,800
want to do less of on those 
coaching Staffs that I think are

1402
01:27:28,800 --> 01:27:32,160
are really bad and it's got to 
be at the absolute extremes, 

1403
01:27:32,160 --> 01:27:34,320
right, 'cause these coaches, 
they're not on the field. 

1404
01:27:34,320 --> 01:27:37,040
Like Brandon Staley is not out 
there taking snaps for the 

1405
01:27:37,040 --> 01:27:38,640
Chargers or running routes or 
anything. 

1406
01:27:38,640 --> 01:27:41,840
Like the impact he has is 
relatively small. 

1407
01:27:41,880 --> 01:27:45,680
Although you know, it's fun to 
blame these guys for stuff, but 

1408
01:27:45,840 --> 01:27:48,920
when they are at the extremes 
like Arthur Smith or Brandon 

1409
01:27:48,920 --> 01:27:53,360
Staley, you know, I I do think 
that it's worth baking that in a

1410
01:27:53,360 --> 01:27:56,360
little bit to our decisions. 
But that's enough of coach 

1411
01:27:56,360 --> 01:27:58,960
chasing here. 
Let's move on to our next 

1412
01:27:59,240 --> 01:28:00,600
running back efficiency chart. 
Oh. 

1413
01:28:01,640 --> 01:28:05,120
My God. 
We're, yeah, we're really, we're

1414
01:28:05,120 --> 01:28:07,720
slogging through this today. 
We're we're like all the way off

1415
01:28:07,720 --> 01:28:11,640
there. 
So it's the same, the same 

1416
01:28:11,680 --> 01:28:12,880
charts the. 
Last one. 

1417
01:28:13,400 --> 01:28:16,160
The only difference why there 
are two charts is because 

1418
01:28:16,160 --> 01:28:19,680
there's too many running backs 
to evaluate for their efficiency

1419
01:28:19,680 --> 01:28:22,120
to have them all on one chart it
would get too crowded. 

1420
01:28:22,560 --> 01:28:28,120
So I just split them up by rank 
and so I order every running 

1421
01:28:28,120 --> 01:28:30,680
back based on their total 
expected fantasy points. 

1422
01:28:31,080 --> 01:28:34,680
And then I go down the list and 
odd numbered running backs in 

1423
01:28:34,680 --> 01:28:38,040
ranks go on one chart and even 
numbered running backs in rank 

1424
01:28:38,040 --> 01:28:43,840
go on the other chart. 
So here we see this is the evens

1425
01:28:43,880 --> 01:28:49,960
chart and so we've got a bunch 
of guys that are just almost to 

1426
01:28:49,960 --> 01:28:52,400
that 20 expected fantasy points 
threshold. 

1427
01:28:52,680 --> 01:28:55,680
Couple of the guys that we 
talked about actually for, you 

1428
01:28:55,680 --> 01:28:59,520
know, running backs that are, 
they're the the sirens of the 

1429
01:28:59,560 --> 01:29:02,760
playoff best ball running backs.
They're they're calling you to 

1430
01:29:03,440 --> 01:29:08,160
come draft their attractive 
expected fantasy points hoping 

1431
01:29:08,160 --> 01:29:11,080
to get you to dash your playoff 
basketball roster upon their 

1432
01:29:11,080 --> 01:29:13,960
rocks. 
And Bijon Robinson, Alvin Kamara

1433
01:29:13,960 --> 01:29:17,040
and Rashad White all sitting 
there with great expected 

1434
01:29:17,040 --> 01:29:20,480
fantasy point roles. 
But again, if you drafted these 

1435
01:29:20,480 --> 01:29:24,680
guys at random and had an equal 
amount of all of them, 66% of 

1436
01:29:24,680 --> 01:29:27,960
your teams are going to be dead.
That's not a good bet that we 

1437
01:29:27,960 --> 01:29:29,760
want to make. 
We want to wait for a little 

1438
01:29:29,760 --> 01:29:34,240
more clarity and then then we 
can happily pile it. 

1439
01:29:34,240 --> 01:29:37,320
You know, if the Saints make the
playoffs, we can happily load up

1440
01:29:37,320 --> 01:29:40,040
on some Alvin Kamara on the 
teams, or we need a little extra

1441
01:29:40,040 --> 01:29:41,920
running back firepower. 
Light, right? 

1442
01:29:41,920 --> 01:29:44,640
But he's not going to shoot up. 
Alvin Kamara is not going to be 

1443
01:29:44,640 --> 01:29:46,880
like a sixth round pick or 
anything, you know. 

1444
01:29:48,640 --> 01:29:53,920
And so, and one thing that's 
sort of like it, it jumps out to

1445
01:29:53,920 --> 01:29:57,240
me how small the Charbonnet 
bubble is. 

1446
01:29:59,160 --> 01:30:04,520
And and it also seems notable to
me not Kent Walker he was back 

1447
01:30:04,520 --> 01:30:08,800
up to a 60% snap share in in 
week 14. 

1448
01:30:09,640 --> 01:30:13,640
And so it it is that like a sort
of like yo, a little bit of a 

1449
01:30:13,640 --> 01:30:18,560
yo-yo situation developing there
where they didn't they wanted to

1450
01:30:18,560 --> 01:30:21,600
see what get Charbonnet involved
see what he had to offer. 

1451
01:30:22,080 --> 01:30:26,840
But if he hasn't played well, 
even if there's like 

1452
01:30:26,840 --> 01:30:30,600
limitations, limitations to kind
of Walker where there's some 

1453
01:30:30,600 --> 01:30:35,960
frustrations, what what he 
offers it is, is something 

1454
01:30:35,960 --> 01:30:39,880
that's good enough to relegate 
Charbonnet more more than 

1455
01:30:39,880 --> 01:30:44,440
before. 
Yeah, I I would say what I think

1456
01:30:44,440 --> 01:30:47,520
it'll trend towards as we go 
through the fantasy play offs is

1457
01:30:47,520 --> 01:30:49,560
Kenneth Walker getting more and 
more role. 

1458
01:30:49,640 --> 01:30:51,320
I don't think Chardonnay will go
away. 

1459
01:30:51,320 --> 01:30:54,160
I think you're always gonna have
Charbonnet working in there, 

1460
01:30:54,160 --> 01:30:58,960
right. 
And So what that does for me, as

1461
01:30:58,960 --> 01:31:02,040
far as how I'm viewing these 
guys is Chardonnay is not really

1462
01:31:02,040 --> 01:31:04,960
startable most likely, you know,
unless you get Kenneth Walker 

1463
01:31:05,000 --> 01:31:07,920
now and then. 
As far as Kenneth Walker's 

1464
01:31:07,920 --> 01:31:12,800
concerned, I've got him pretty 
low on the totem pole as far as 

1465
01:31:12,800 --> 01:31:15,560
like running backs that I'd want
to start him over. 

1466
01:31:16,320 --> 01:31:19,840
Just because the way that 
Kenneth Walker, you know, 

1467
01:31:20,160 --> 01:31:24,880
butters his bread for fantasy is
he hits a home run, right? 

1468
01:31:24,920 --> 01:31:28,040
And and he's not doing it at 
such a high rate. 

1469
01:31:28,280 --> 01:31:31,480
He's not like a Divana Chan, 
where it's like this guy touches

1470
01:31:31,480 --> 01:31:32,960
the ball 10 times. 
You just put it in his 

1471
01:31:32,960 --> 01:31:34,640
projection. 
Yeah, 2. 

1472
01:31:34,680 --> 01:31:36,800
Two of them are breakaway 
touchdowns, right? 

1473
01:31:37,000 --> 01:31:41,200
Kenneth Walker is like, he 
touches the ball 15 times, and 

1474
01:31:41,200 --> 01:31:45,280
in some games, 15 touches was 
enough for him to rip off a huge

1475
01:31:45,280 --> 01:31:47,920
touchdown run. 
And in other games that was 15 

1476
01:31:47,920 --> 01:31:52,280
for 43 yards, right? 
And so for me, it's like Kenneth

1477
01:31:52,280 --> 01:31:57,800
Walker is like I'm I'm certainly
starting him over Samaj P Ryan. 

1478
01:31:58,240 --> 01:32:00,480
But like I'm definitely not 
starting him over David 

1479
01:32:00,480 --> 01:32:05,720
Montgomery. 
You know here's, here's an 

1480
01:32:05,720 --> 01:32:09,320
interesting one. 
We've got a lot of ambiguity 

1481
01:32:09,320 --> 01:32:13,280
with the Ravens Backfield, Gus 
Edwards, Keaton Mitchell, 

1482
01:32:13,520 --> 01:32:16,600
Kenneth Walker. 
Out of those three, pretend you 

1483
01:32:16,600 --> 01:32:19,400
have to pick one that that those
are your 3 running backs you're 

1484
01:32:19,400 --> 01:32:22,120
choosing to start for your last 
running back spot in the 

1485
01:32:22,120 --> 01:32:24,480
playoffs here. 
Which of those three are you 

1486
01:32:24,480 --> 01:32:30,960
starting in a vacuum? 
And and like a regular playoff 

1487
01:32:31,680 --> 01:32:35,400
or fantasy Football Playoff. 
Yeah, so you're like in a FFPC 

1488
01:32:35,400 --> 01:32:37,960
main event or something, or 
you're in a home league and and 

1489
01:32:37,960 --> 01:32:39,440
I mean. 
You're starting you're I, I 

1490
01:32:39,440 --> 01:32:42,800
think you're starting kind of 
Walker over to Ravens guys like 

1491
01:32:45,560 --> 01:32:48,640
with with to me 0 hesitation. 
OK. 

1492
01:32:49,400 --> 01:32:52,520
And I know you want a better 
key. 

1493
01:32:53,160 --> 01:32:54,880
What's that? 
You want a grosser 1. 

1494
01:32:56,200 --> 01:32:59,280
OK. 
Ezekiel Elliott or Kenneth 

1495
01:32:59,280 --> 01:33:07,160
Walker? 
And I think, I think I'm 

1496
01:33:07,160 --> 01:33:12,360
starting Kenneth Walker over the
over the, the, the Zeke stuff. 

1497
01:33:12,760 --> 01:33:15,400
God, the workload is just so 
good though. 

1498
01:33:15,880 --> 01:33:18,360
I don't know. 
The workload is good. 

1499
01:33:18,400 --> 01:33:22,240
He's gonna get targets. 
If they get to go line he it's 

1500
01:33:22,240 --> 01:33:28,240
it's gonna be Zeke and I I just 
think I just think that with 

1501
01:33:29,360 --> 01:33:32,720
with Kent Walker's work roll 
with that sort of trending up 

1502
01:33:33,600 --> 01:33:39,080
and and like I know he has those
things where like it it if he's 

1503
01:33:39,080 --> 01:33:41,520
not breaking off huge runs 
you're not getting on off a lot.

1504
01:33:41,840 --> 01:33:46,680
But Kenneth Walker is really 
really good at the part of the 

1505
01:33:46,680 --> 01:33:50,800
game that he's really good at 
and like when it hits like that 

1506
01:33:50,800 --> 01:33:53,360
translates really well to 
fantasy football. 

1507
01:33:53,640 --> 01:33:59,760
Like I remember at the start of 
the year, Kenneth Walker was was

1508
01:33:59,760 --> 01:34:03,800
a great, great fantasy producer 
and if we can get closer to that

1509
01:34:03,800 --> 01:34:09,440
sort of workload that he was 
having and like I I I would 

1510
01:34:09,440 --> 01:34:15,040
still prefer him over Zeke. 
Yeah, that's a it's AI think 

1511
01:34:15,040 --> 01:34:18,040
that's a good point and it's 
good to remind ourselves, like, 

1512
01:34:18,040 --> 01:34:22,160
hey, you know, work workload 
matters so much for running 

1513
01:34:22,160 --> 01:34:25,080
backs, but talent does still 
matter to an extent. 

1514
01:34:25,480 --> 01:34:27,720
It's just it's bad vibes on the 
Seahawks. 

1515
01:34:27,720 --> 01:34:29,800
Not that it's not bad vibes on 
the Patriots. 

1516
01:34:29,800 --> 01:34:32,480
It's just the role. 
The role for Zeke is so 

1517
01:34:32,480 --> 01:34:33,520
attractive. 
But. 

1518
01:34:33,560 --> 01:34:35,840
Yeah. 
I think that was good to to talk

1519
01:34:35,840 --> 01:34:38,200
through to give some people 
some, some clarity there. 

1520
01:34:38,200 --> 01:34:41,160
If they're because Kenneth 
Walker feels tough to start 

1521
01:34:41,160 --> 01:34:43,800
right now, you know if you have 
options that are closed, 

1522
01:34:44,120 --> 01:34:46,840
definitely feels a little scary.
Right. 

1523
01:34:47,520 --> 01:34:49,520
You don't. 
You don't feel comfy starting 

1524
01:34:49,960 --> 01:34:51,920
Kenneth Walker by by by any 
means. 

1525
01:34:52,240 --> 01:34:59,400
And if you have someone, well, I
know he has the role and I I I I

1526
01:34:59,400 --> 01:35:03,280
still think that the upside 
helps you quite a bit there with

1527
01:35:03,720 --> 01:35:06,720
with Walker. 
One guy that I want to list. 

1528
01:35:07,560 --> 01:35:11,680
Sorry. 
Yeah just that the the the the 

1529
01:35:11,680 --> 01:35:16,000
snap share that he's getting now
is better than is is a good bit 

1530
01:35:16,000 --> 01:35:18,880
better than the snap share he 
was getting just before the 

1531
01:35:18,880 --> 01:35:24,760
injury when when he he wasn't 
scoring much at all. 

1532
01:35:25,400 --> 01:35:29,880
So like I I like I I think, I 
think it it does seem to me that

1533
01:35:29,880 --> 01:35:34,240
we're getting like I think it's 
important that it seems like 

1534
01:35:34,240 --> 01:35:37,320
we're getting closer to the work
row at the start of the year 

1535
01:35:37,400 --> 01:35:45,360
than the pre entry at work row. 
Yeah, one one guy that I want to

1536
01:35:45,360 --> 01:35:49,520
list as an honorable mention who
does not did not get enough 

1537
01:35:49,520 --> 01:35:54,040
expected fantasy points yet to 
crack onto these charts. 

1538
01:35:54,280 --> 01:35:58,240
But I would, I I would just say 
to keep an eye on this guy. 

1539
01:35:59,160 --> 01:36:01,640
You know, if you're in a home 
league and he's still somehow on

1540
01:36:01,640 --> 01:36:04,680
your waivers, this is probably 
going to be a a waiver priority 

1541
01:36:04,680 --> 01:36:07,240
this week. 
But I think the secret's out on 

1542
01:36:07,240 --> 01:36:10,840
Chase Brown. 
I don't know how the Bengals 

1543
01:36:11,360 --> 01:36:14,960
didn't know this about Chase 
Brown earlier in the season. 

1544
01:36:15,240 --> 01:36:18,080
That's one of the most 
frustrating things to me as a 

1545
01:36:18,080 --> 01:36:22,280
fantasy player is sometimes we 
find these guys that we think 

1546
01:36:22,360 --> 01:36:25,400
you know, their prospect profile
is so good and we evaluate them 

1547
01:36:25,400 --> 01:36:28,880
as this should be. 
A player that immediately is 

1548
01:36:28,880 --> 01:36:32,920
going to have a role on a team. 
Because you've got a running 

1549
01:36:32,920 --> 01:36:36,320
back that is aging out. 
And you know they'd certainly be

1550
01:36:36,320 --> 01:36:39,520
wise to get themselves away from
Joe Mixon. 

1551
01:36:39,520 --> 01:36:43,160
Just with, you know, his 
contract and and you know he's 

1552
01:36:43,160 --> 01:36:47,360
on the the wrong side of the AJ 
Apex, it made all the sense in 

1553
01:36:47,360 --> 01:36:50,720
the world to see what they had 
in Chase Brown. 

1554
01:36:51,280 --> 01:36:54,160
And it really just seems like 
the Bengals were playing scared 

1555
01:36:54,360 --> 01:36:56,480
with Chase Brown earlier in the 
season. 

1556
01:36:56,480 --> 01:36:59,160
They wanted to really play it 
safe and stick with the devil 

1557
01:36:59,160 --> 01:37:02,000
they know. 
And Joe Mixon, while Joe Burrow 

1558
01:37:02,000 --> 01:37:05,160
was healthy and while they they 
thought they had a, you know, 

1559
01:37:05,160 --> 01:37:08,120
good look at the playoffs. 
And then now that Burrows out 

1560
01:37:08,120 --> 01:37:10,880
and it's the Browning Show, 
they're willing to give Brown a 

1561
01:37:10,880 --> 01:37:13,560
little bit of a look and what do
you know, the guy can ball. 

1562
01:37:13,640 --> 01:37:17,600
And so yeah, he he doesn't crack
onto these charts just yet. 

1563
01:37:18,000 --> 01:37:20,880
But if he's on your waivers, 
he's definitely an exciting ad 

1564
01:37:20,880 --> 01:37:24,280
for this playoff stretch. 
He looks electric. 

1565
01:37:24,720 --> 01:37:30,600
I I hope that his price stays 
depressed next year in, you 

1566
01:37:30,600 --> 01:37:33,040
know, way too early. 
Best ball so I can load up 

1567
01:37:33,240 --> 01:37:37,400
'cause that's that's my that's 
like my Jalen Warren for next 

1568
01:37:37,400 --> 01:37:39,000
year. 
I'm going to call my shot right 

1569
01:37:39,000 --> 01:37:41,600
now on Chase Brown. 
That's like the Jalen Warren of 

1570
01:37:41,600 --> 01:37:44,920
next year. 
If and if you look at the last 

1571
01:37:44,920 --> 01:37:49,160
game it does start getting like 
really interesting because with 

1572
01:37:49,160 --> 01:37:54,280
these guys who have the the like
the low snap share or low snap 

1573
01:37:54,280 --> 01:37:59,840
count and then electric and 
production with like a low touch

1574
01:37:59,840 --> 01:38:02,240
count. 
One thing, one thing that seems 

1575
01:38:02,240 --> 01:38:07,120
to those seems to be important 
is are they just on the ball or 

1576
01:38:07,120 --> 01:38:11,160
sorry are they just on the field
7 times and they get the ball 6 

1577
01:38:12,040 --> 01:38:16,960
or do the coaches like trust 
them to like be on the field if 

1578
01:38:16,960 --> 01:38:19,960
they're not getting the ball and
told run this way. 

1579
01:38:20,560 --> 01:38:25,400
And you know Chase Brown, he did
get like a pass blocking snap. 

1580
01:38:26,160 --> 01:38:31,160
He did get, he got 8 routes in 
that game. 

1581
01:38:31,240 --> 01:38:37,360
So that that that to me is like 
evidence of like them trusting 

1582
01:38:37,360 --> 01:38:41,920
him more than like a get on the 
field to get the ball off the 

1583
01:38:41,920 --> 01:38:45,400
field guy. 
That's that is a great shout out

1584
01:38:45,400 --> 01:38:47,560
Draco. 
I think that is super valuable 

1585
01:38:47,600 --> 01:38:50,840
info to have and really strong 
signal for. 

1586
01:38:51,520 --> 01:38:54,440
There is something a little 
could be a little sticky here 

1587
01:38:54,440 --> 01:38:59,120
with Chase Brown there. 
It's it's not just like it's not

1588
01:38:59,120 --> 01:39:02,440
like a a deuce Vaughn type of 
thing where it's like this'll be

1589
01:39:02,440 --> 01:39:04,760
fun. 
Let's let's give this electric 

1590
01:39:04,760 --> 01:39:07,920
guy a couple touches and like 
all right go go back on the 

1591
01:39:07,920 --> 01:39:10,200
sideline deuce like good job. 
That was really fun. 

1592
01:39:10,200 --> 01:39:14,320
The fans love ya. 
No, it's like we need to we need

1593
01:39:14,320 --> 01:39:18,360
to figure out exactly what Chase
Brown is and I would not be 

1594
01:39:18,360 --> 01:39:22,800
surprised at all if we see you 
know the home stretch here of 

1595
01:39:22,800 --> 01:39:26,480
this season is prime. 
Let's figure out what Chase 

1596
01:39:26,480 --> 01:39:28,880
Brown is territory for the 
Bengals. 

1597
01:39:29,760 --> 01:39:32,680
And then, you know, as a as an 
extension. 

1598
01:39:32,960 --> 01:39:36,920
Dear God, I hope that the Saints
do the same thing with Kendra 

1599
01:39:36,920 --> 01:39:40,480
Miller. 
Please, please bail out my Henry

1600
01:39:40,520 --> 01:39:43,320
Miller bags. 
I mean, bailing is so bad. 

1601
01:39:44,080 --> 01:39:47,320
Yeah, but I I. 
I do think it's important to 

1602
01:39:47,320 --> 01:39:52,120
like understand the distinction 
between them being asked to do a

1603
01:39:52,120 --> 01:39:55,040
role on the offense that isn't 
just them getting the ball. 

1604
01:39:55,720 --> 01:40:00,000
Like 'cause like the idea that 
the coach is trusting them to 

1605
01:40:00,000 --> 01:40:03,920
act like an adult and like, 
perform a responsibility that 

1606
01:40:03,920 --> 01:40:07,160
isn't being involved. 
Carrier, it it it it is 

1607
01:40:07,160 --> 01:40:09,000
important. 
It's really important for them 

1608
01:40:09,000 --> 01:40:13,440
getting their roles wrapped up. 
100%, all right. 

1609
01:40:13,440 --> 01:40:15,080
We've been, we've been 
lollygagging. 

1610
01:40:15,080 --> 01:40:17,440
We've been having a lot of fun, 
just kind of chopping it up, 

1611
01:40:17,640 --> 01:40:19,720
going into all kinds of fun 
topics. 

1612
01:40:19,720 --> 01:40:23,000
But let's move on to our tight 
end utilization chart here. 

1613
01:40:23,720 --> 01:40:29,760
So this this tight end chart is 
just showing the percentage of 

1614
01:40:29,760 --> 01:40:35,560
team drop backs on the X axis. 
The green bar is showing the 

1615
01:40:35,560 --> 01:40:40,920
routes that the tight end ran. 
And then the red bar or salmon 

1616
01:40:40,920 --> 01:40:46,240
colored bar if you will is the 
blocking, the pass blocking that

1617
01:40:46,240 --> 01:40:51,200
the the tight end did in their 
percentage of the team drop 

1618
01:40:51,200 --> 01:40:53,200
back. 
So we're not a huge fan of the 

1619
01:40:53,200 --> 01:40:55,920
pass blocking. 
We definitely prefer the route 

1620
01:40:55,920 --> 01:40:59,120
running and then over on the 
left hand side we have some 

1621
01:40:59,120 --> 01:41:04,280
nifty stats to help us evaluate 
how valuable those routes really

1622
01:41:04,360 --> 01:41:06,960
are. 
And those are a dot and targets 

1623
01:41:06,960 --> 01:41:09,400
per route run. 
So you can think of targets per 

1624
01:41:09,400 --> 01:41:12,160
route run as how frequently are 
these guys actually getting the 

1625
01:41:12,160 --> 01:41:16,160
ball when they do run routes and
then a dot is and how valuable 

1626
01:41:16,160 --> 01:41:18,280
are those targets when they're 
getting them. 

1627
01:41:19,160 --> 01:41:23,240
So it's all kind of a function 
that works together and it's you

1628
01:41:23,240 --> 01:41:25,600
know, it's nice to see Travis 
Kelsey back on top. 

1629
01:41:26,600 --> 01:41:31,520
You know you you got to be happy
for the guy he he was kind of 

1630
01:41:31,520 --> 01:41:34,000
hanging out a little lower in 
the chart for a while. 

1631
01:41:34,400 --> 01:41:37,320
And again, I don't think I 
clarified this on the running 

1632
01:41:37,320 --> 01:41:40,080
back charts earlier, but for 
running back and tight end 

1633
01:41:40,080 --> 01:41:43,760
charts, we do a four week 
rolling average because roles 

1634
01:41:43,760 --> 01:41:46,720
can change for those positions 
as the season goes on. 

1635
01:41:47,920 --> 01:41:50,880
And so we want to look at what's
happening recently to try and 

1636
01:41:50,880 --> 01:41:54,440
pick up on any signal or trends 
that are worth noting. 

1637
01:41:55,080 --> 01:41:59,600
I think what's interesting with 
a Kelsey thing up the top there 

1638
01:41:59,760 --> 01:42:03,360
and when whereas he was much 
lower, so that's got to be a 

1639
01:42:03,360 --> 01:42:06,400
sign that they see him as a 
fully healthy now, right? 

1640
01:42:06,560 --> 01:42:09,040
I I agree. 
And that's it's interesting to 

1641
01:42:09,040 --> 01:42:13,520
me, 'cause I thought he was not 
like just last week. 

1642
01:42:13,720 --> 01:42:21,680
He looked not healthy to me and 
and so I I wonder if it's it it,

1643
01:42:21,760 --> 01:42:24,520
it might be the kind of thing 
'cause it was an ankle for him, 

1644
01:42:24,600 --> 01:42:26,000
right, that was giving him 
problems. 

1645
01:42:26,040 --> 01:42:29,040
It might be the kind of thing 
where the pain isn't bothering 

1646
01:42:29,040 --> 01:42:31,120
him anymore. 
He's able to do a full workload,

1647
01:42:31,120 --> 01:42:34,360
but he's just he's lacking a 
little bit of like the cutting 

1648
01:42:34,360 --> 01:42:37,040
and like and that might be what 
the issue is. 

1649
01:42:37,040 --> 01:42:39,320
So he might be like healthy 
enough that it's not bugging 

1650
01:42:39,320 --> 01:42:42,480
him, but not full strength, 
right? 

1651
01:42:42,520 --> 01:42:45,800
And so, but at tight end, you 
can kind of get away with that a

1652
01:42:45,800 --> 01:42:50,720
little bit more right than like 
when when we see Tyree Hill 

1653
01:42:50,840 --> 01:42:54,400
unable to cut, it's like, oh 
man, I mean he's still fast. 

1654
01:42:54,400 --> 01:42:58,720
He goes straight line very fast.
But like, like we saw in after 

1655
01:42:58,720 --> 01:43:02,280
he came back in the game, like 
he ran his route and then he 

1656
01:43:02,280 --> 01:43:05,920
wasn't like trying to Juke guys 
out after the catch and go for 

1657
01:43:05,920 --> 01:43:08,160
the house call. 
It was like let me get out of 

1658
01:43:08,160 --> 01:43:10,120
bounds because I do not want to 
get tackled right now. 

1659
01:43:10,120 --> 01:43:13,880
Like my ankle is killing. 
So good. 

1660
01:43:13,880 --> 01:43:19,200
Good call on Kelsey's health 
there, man. 

1661
01:43:19,520 --> 01:43:21,600
The Evan Ingram. 
I gotta I gotta talk about Evan 

1662
01:43:21,600 --> 01:43:23,960
Ingram a little bit for anyone 
that followed the dog bowl 

1663
01:43:23,960 --> 01:43:27,240
stuff. 
And if you saw on the stream, 

1664
01:43:27,920 --> 01:43:32,560
Pete was was talking to me and I
I said the only change I made to

1665
01:43:32,560 --> 01:43:36,000
projections all week. 
So I aggregated ETR projections 

1666
01:43:36,000 --> 01:43:40,120
with a couple other sources and 
did my own little flavor on some

1667
01:43:40,120 --> 01:43:43,040
value above replacement stuff 
that I do to build my rankings 

1668
01:43:43,040 --> 01:43:44,880
out. 
I typically am not going to 

1669
01:43:44,880 --> 01:43:47,800
touch the projections unless I 
really have a spot that I am 

1670
01:43:47,840 --> 01:43:52,400
very confident that they're not.
Correct and only note I had for 

1671
01:43:52,520 --> 01:43:57,680
every single player on the whole
slate was Boost Evan Ingram and 

1672
01:43:58,400 --> 01:44:00,800
damn if that was not very 
prescient. 

1673
01:44:00,800 --> 01:44:03,920
I I wish that I had had the 
stones to get to Evan Ingram 

1674
01:44:03,920 --> 01:44:06,360
there, but it just didn't didn't
work out for where I was 

1675
01:44:06,360 --> 01:44:08,520
drafting. 
But the reason I bring that up 

1676
01:44:08,520 --> 01:44:13,160
is not to highlight how much of 
A crystal ball I had, but to 

1677
01:44:13,160 --> 01:44:17,880
highlight how predictable Evan 
Ingram blow up games are. 

1678
01:44:18,120 --> 01:44:21,440
Because this is not the first 
Evan Ingram blow up spot that 

1679
01:44:21,440 --> 01:44:23,520
we've identified. 
You know, when he was playing 

1680
01:44:23,520 --> 01:44:27,720
against the Steelers with a 
really strong pass rush and it 

1681
01:44:27,720 --> 01:44:29,920
was looking like it was going to
be a bad weather game. 

1682
01:44:30,240 --> 01:44:34,760
We identified Evan Ingram there 
as well as this looks like the 

1683
01:44:34,760 --> 01:44:38,080
short A dot quick outlet that 
they're going to use to try and 

1684
01:44:38,080 --> 01:44:41,360
beat that pass rush and you 
know, not have to worry about 

1685
01:44:41,360 --> 01:44:45,080
completing longer difficult 
passes in bad weather. 

1686
01:44:45,600 --> 01:44:48,560
And that was the reason why I 
was excited for Evan Ingram 

1687
01:44:48,560 --> 01:44:51,120
again this week. 
With Christian Kirk out, not 

1688
01:44:51,120 --> 01:44:54,840
operating in that short area of 
the field, and with them going 

1689
01:44:54,840 --> 01:44:58,040
up against a very formidable 
Browns pass rush and really good

1690
01:44:58,040 --> 01:45:02,000
Browns pass defense, I I thought
that Evan Ingram again was going

1691
01:45:02,000 --> 01:45:05,640
to be the skeleton key for how 
the Jags had to move the ball 

1692
01:45:05,640 --> 01:45:09,760
down the field against them. 
And so when you get players like

1693
01:45:09,760 --> 01:45:15,160
this where you can identify the 
Smashbox beforehand, it's 

1694
01:45:15,160 --> 01:45:20,080
extremely valuable. 
And it it's, it's not to say 

1695
01:45:20,080 --> 01:45:23,200
that every single time we 
identify Evan Ingram as a Smash,

1696
01:45:23,240 --> 01:45:25,600
he's Smash. 
But it is to say that this is 

1697
01:45:25,600 --> 01:45:28,720
something that we can predict 
with a lot more confidence than 

1698
01:45:28,880 --> 01:45:33,760
some other players, right? 
And so for me personally, I'm 

1699
01:45:33,760 --> 01:45:37,360
going to be looking at Jag spots
as we go through the season. 

1700
01:45:37,560 --> 01:45:39,840
And if they're ever in a 
situation where I think they 

1701
01:45:39,840 --> 01:45:42,760
need that low A dot guy or 
they're up against a formidable 

1702
01:45:42,760 --> 01:45:46,560
pass rush, I'm. 
I'm lock buttoning Evan Ingram. 

1703
01:45:46,680 --> 01:45:49,600
You know, like I didn't play 
anything on DraftKings this week

1704
01:45:49,600 --> 01:45:51,440
because I was really focusing on
the dog bowl. 

1705
01:45:51,760 --> 01:45:55,360
But if I had, I definitely would
have been rolling Evan Ingram as

1706
01:45:55,360 --> 01:45:57,840
my tight end, you know, probably
would have done a lot of Lamar 

1707
01:45:57,840 --> 01:45:59,400
stacks. 
I was high on that too. 

1708
01:45:59,760 --> 01:46:04,280
And you know, hindsight being 
2020, darn, I wish I had played 

1709
01:46:04,280 --> 01:46:07,000
some on DraftKings this week 
because those were two of the 

1710
01:46:07,000 --> 01:46:10,880
nut pieces. 
So, but yeah, I I just wanted to

1711
01:46:10,880 --> 01:46:12,720
highlight that because when you 
get a guy that's that 

1712
01:46:12,720 --> 01:46:14,560
predictable with those kinds of 
so. 

1713
01:46:14,560 --> 01:46:19,840
Evan Ingram in spots where the 
Jacksonville have a a a password

1714
01:46:19,920 --> 01:46:23,000
mismatch against him. 
Yep, 100. 

1715
01:46:23,000 --> 01:46:25,560
Percent because that that's what
he does the best. 

1716
01:46:25,920 --> 01:46:31,160
Yeah. 
And then moving on from Evan 

1717
01:46:31,160 --> 01:46:36,560
Ingram, other guys that I think 
are worth the I I don't want to 

1718
01:46:36,560 --> 01:46:39,000
do them with as much confidence 
as I would Evan Ingram. 

1719
01:46:39,000 --> 01:46:41,920
And for this next guy I think 
it's even a little bit different

1720
01:46:41,920 --> 01:46:44,720
just cause the quarterback 
situation's different and like 

1721
01:46:45,240 --> 01:46:47,880
he he's running deeper routes 
recently. 

1722
01:46:47,880 --> 01:46:52,680
But David and Joku his A dot I 
believe has actually come up a 

1723
01:46:52,680 --> 01:46:54,200
little bit which I know sounds 
funny. 

1724
01:46:54,200 --> 01:46:56,560
He's at 4.1 and like yeah, his A
dot's up. 

1725
01:46:56,680 --> 01:47:02,360
It's like, but no, Joku is like 
getting absolutely no air yards 

1726
01:47:02,840 --> 01:47:04,880
earlier. 
But this last week he did get a 

1727
01:47:04,880 --> 01:47:07,960
deeper pass from Flacco but he 
does. 

1728
01:47:07,960 --> 01:47:11,840
He is a lower A dot guy and in 
the past I had, I had tried to 

1729
01:47:11,840 --> 01:47:14,360
do the same thing with Njoku 
that I did with Ingram. 

1730
01:47:14,360 --> 01:47:17,080
When you know when the Browns 
need to do those quick hitters 

1731
01:47:17,400 --> 01:47:20,600
and you know blitz beater type 
plays, maybe some more tight end

1732
01:47:20,600 --> 01:47:22,840
screens, I'm looking at that for
a Joku. 

1733
01:47:22,840 --> 01:47:26,280
But I would say Ingram is the 
the guy that I have the highest 

1734
01:47:26,280 --> 01:47:29,760
degree of confidence for that 
specific type of match up 

1735
01:47:29,760 --> 01:47:35,200
exploitation. 
Yeah, he he, his air yards are 

1736
01:47:35,200 --> 01:47:39,280
definitely up. 
Like if I look at week 11 

1737
01:47:39,280 --> 01:47:45,160
through 14 and he had, he 
averaged 54 air yards, he came 

1738
01:47:46,120 --> 01:47:51,480
and then if I look before that 
it was 17 air yards a game. 

1739
01:47:52,160 --> 01:47:59,160
So obviously that that's that's 
not a dot and but I I I think 

1740
01:47:59,320 --> 01:48:02,160
there's something to that where 
he's like he's getting targeted 

1741
01:48:02,160 --> 01:48:03,400
down the field. 
Yeah. 

1742
01:48:03,400 --> 01:48:06,200
And it's, I think it's a 
function of Joe Flacco more than

1743
01:48:06,200 --> 01:48:09,720
anything. 
So here's what I would think 

1744
01:48:09,720 --> 01:48:13,840
too. 
I've got I've got a guy here 

1745
01:48:13,840 --> 01:48:17,480
that I need your opinion on 
because I think it's pretty 

1746
01:48:17,480 --> 01:48:21,080
relevant for playoff basketball.
So we talked about that. 

1747
01:48:21,160 --> 01:48:27,120
I have recently allowed the 
Bills to be back on the menu for

1748
01:48:27,120 --> 01:48:29,960
me for playoff basketball. 
Wasn't drafting a blast week 

1749
01:48:30,240 --> 01:48:32,080
after the upset. 
I'm drafting him now. 

1750
01:48:32,640 --> 01:48:38,680
So Dalton Kincaid goes right 
around Gabe Davis, they go very 

1751
01:48:38,680 --> 01:48:43,920
close to each other in ADP. 
You also have some Bills players

1752
01:48:43,920 --> 01:48:49,440
that go undrafted like Khalil 
Shakur, right, Or Deontay Hardy.

1753
01:48:51,160 --> 01:48:56,680
Are you taking Dalton Kincaid 
over Gabe Davis or it's a team 

1754
01:48:56,680 --> 01:48:59,000
where you've got the. 
I don't think I'm ever doing 

1755
01:48:59,000 --> 01:49:02,320
these as a one off by the way. 
There's no way in hell you're 

1756
01:49:02,320 --> 01:49:05,040
getting me to draft Bills 
without Josh Allen. 

1757
01:49:05,480 --> 01:49:07,000
I'm. 
I'm only drafting the Bills 

1758
01:49:07,000 --> 01:49:09,560
because it was a spot where Josh
Allen made sense. 

1759
01:49:09,880 --> 01:49:13,760
And then when that plays out I 
benefit disproportionately 

1760
01:49:13,760 --> 01:49:17,040
because like sick I got a 
quarterback the caliber of Josh 

1761
01:49:17,040 --> 01:49:21,280
Allen for fantasy and and now I 
got them in a situation where 

1762
01:49:21,280 --> 01:49:23,320
it's actually worthwhile for the
Bills. 

1763
01:49:23,600 --> 01:49:27,400
I don't really ever care to have
like a Dalton Kincaid one off, 

1764
01:49:27,480 --> 01:49:29,840
right? 
So just for for people to know, 

1765
01:49:29,840 --> 01:49:34,200
it's it's only with Josh Allen, 
but on those Josh Allen teams, 

1766
01:49:34,720 --> 01:49:37,280
are you doing some Kincaid, some
Gabe Davis? 

1767
01:49:37,280 --> 01:49:40,120
Are you mixing and matching? 
Are you strongly preferring one 

1768
01:49:40,120 --> 01:49:41,680
over the other? 
What do you think there? 

1769
01:49:42,880 --> 01:49:48,920
And I I I think it's sort of 
like a a little bit of a toss up

1770
01:49:49,800 --> 01:49:53,800
like it. 
It's obviously early in 

1771
01:49:53,800 --> 01:50:00,760
Kincaid's career but it does 
seem clear that his he he he's 

1772
01:50:00,760 --> 01:50:05,720
not sort of like a high high. 
He doesn't have the the sort of 

1773
01:50:05,720 --> 01:50:10,080
upside the points upside that 
Gabe Davis would have where like

1774
01:50:10,080 --> 01:50:16,120
he can get like 8 targets and I 
don't know 80 yards and and and 

1775
01:50:16,320 --> 01:50:21,040
and and and that can be a good 
game And then Gabe Davis will 

1776
01:50:21,040 --> 01:50:25,000
have games where he just he just
doesn't have a catch but then 

1777
01:50:25,000 --> 01:50:29,520
he'll have games where he 
catches 2 long bombs and and and

1778
01:50:29,520 --> 01:50:35,920
and you need him to win all the 
money and it it that that that's

1779
01:50:36,200 --> 01:50:38,440
honestly something that's 
difficult for me to parse 

1780
01:50:38,440 --> 01:50:41,880
through for I I don't I don't 
have I don't have the the 

1781
01:50:41,880 --> 01:50:49,680
experience with best best best 
ball to really answer that and I

1782
01:50:49,680 --> 01:50:53,320
don't think but what what I 
would say is like when you have 

1783
01:50:53,320 --> 01:50:58,520
a player like Josh Allen one of 
the best ways to play Josh Allen

1784
01:50:58,960 --> 01:51:04,520
is like having multiple cheap 
guys because he's like the the 

1785
01:51:04,520 --> 01:51:11,240
quarterback who who can get 
those sort of non digs pieces 

1786
01:51:11,720 --> 01:51:15,640
into huge days and and and they 
can both be players that you 

1787
01:51:15,640 --> 01:51:19,400
absolutely need. 
So I don't know if that helps 

1788
01:51:19,400 --> 01:51:23,000
anyone. 
Yeah, no, I I I think that was a

1789
01:51:23,000 --> 01:51:26,880
a good analysis there. 
So I I think in summary, it's 

1790
01:51:26,880 --> 01:51:29,240
fair to say that you'd probably 
mix and match them. 

1791
01:51:29,240 --> 01:51:32,200
You're not always taking one 
over the other, you're mix and 

1792
01:51:32,200 --> 01:51:33,680
matching. 
Sometimes you might end up with 

1793
01:51:33,680 --> 01:51:35,800
both if it's a build where you 
need multiple. 

1794
01:51:35,800 --> 01:51:43,560
But as far as other tight end 
actual information that we have 

1795
01:51:43,560 --> 01:51:46,640
for people, I think Jake 
Ferguson's a really, really 

1796
01:51:46,640 --> 01:51:48,760
interesting piece for playoff 
basketball. 

1797
01:51:49,360 --> 01:51:52,120
You're more, you care so much 
about the team in playoff 

1798
01:51:52,120 --> 01:51:54,840
basketball. 
So like he's a Cowboy and he 

1799
01:51:54,840 --> 01:51:59,520
gets targets and he also gets in
zone targets like if the Cowboys

1800
01:51:59,520 --> 01:52:02,360
make the conference championship
or the Super Bowl that's 

1801
01:52:02,360 --> 01:52:05,200
tremendously valuable. 
Like he doesn't need to go nuke 

1802
01:52:05,240 --> 01:52:07,760
and and he's he has shown us 
that he still can have pretty 

1803
01:52:07,760 --> 01:52:10,680
big games too. 
So he's definitely one that I'm 

1804
01:52:10,680 --> 01:52:12,440
keeping an eye on for playoff 
basketball. 

1805
01:52:14,840 --> 01:52:21,800
Dallas Goddard goes kind of I I 
feel like I've seen him sliding 

1806
01:52:21,800 --> 01:52:23,480
lately. 
I wouldn't be surprised if with 

1807
01:52:23,520 --> 01:52:26,520
ADP updates Dallas Goddard's AD 
PS dropped a little bit. 

1808
01:52:27,360 --> 01:52:30,520
I just think sentiment the the 
vibes are bad around the Eagles 

1809
01:52:30,520 --> 01:52:34,080
right now in the market. 
And so that's that's one that I 

1810
01:52:34,080 --> 01:52:36,760
don't have a ton right now, but 
I'm kind of keeping my eye on it

1811
01:52:36,920 --> 01:52:43,560
and I would bet you that next 
week is Eagle buying week for me

1812
01:52:44,160 --> 01:52:47,360
and that's kind of how I play 
playoff basketball is you want 

1813
01:52:47,360 --> 01:52:50,320
to exploit what the market's 
giving you in that week and 

1814
01:52:50,320 --> 01:52:52,280
that's part of building out your
portfolio. 

1815
01:52:52,280 --> 01:52:54,720
So like I said, last week was 
Ravens week for me. 

1816
01:52:55,000 --> 01:52:58,760
This week Bills are on the menu 
and there there's some other 

1817
01:52:58,760 --> 01:53:01,280
stuff that I'm, you know, 
looking to exploit that I won't,

1818
01:53:01,280 --> 01:53:03,080
I won't bore you all to tears 
with here. 

1819
01:53:03,080 --> 01:53:07,320
But anyway, you just you want to
be paying attention to what's 

1820
01:53:07,320 --> 01:53:11,360
happening in the market and 
trying it to change with it and 

1821
01:53:11,640 --> 01:53:13,720
pivot and exploit it. 
But I don't think. 

1822
01:53:13,720 --> 01:53:19,000
We yeah I I think with with 
let's say versus the Goddard 

1823
01:53:19,000 --> 01:53:23,600
versus Devonta Smith in playoff 
basketball stuff like it. 

1824
01:53:23,640 --> 01:53:28,040
It it's clear that the way the 
Eagles offense or it is to me 

1825
01:53:28,040 --> 01:53:32,480
anyway that the way the Eagles 
offense it goes is that usually 

1826
01:53:32,840 --> 01:53:38,760
one of those guys is gonna have 
like a a smash week and and they

1827
01:53:38,760 --> 01:53:42,320
all have those smash weeks at 
like different frequencies like 

1828
01:53:42,320 --> 01:53:44,080
A.J. 
Brown has the most of them and 

1829
01:53:44,080 --> 01:53:47,360
then after that is Davonta Smith
and then after that is Goddard 

1830
01:53:47,800 --> 01:53:51,200
and like he at a lowest treat 
he's he's definitely the lowest 

1831
01:53:51,880 --> 01:53:56,240
and and and and probably mostly 
because he's he is a tight end 

1832
01:53:56,840 --> 01:54:00,400
but I I do wonder so you've got 
the Rhonda Smith there going out

1833
01:54:00,400 --> 01:54:06,480
pick 14 or so and then daughter 
gonna pick 30 like does he do it

1834
01:54:06,480 --> 01:54:15,880
so much or less frequently that 
in a situation where he's going 

1835
01:54:15,880 --> 01:54:20,240
to it's it's three games that 
they that they'll play that 

1836
01:54:20,920 --> 01:54:24,520
we're we're so confident that 
two of them won't be Dallas 

1837
01:54:24,520 --> 01:54:29,000
Goddard games like that that 
that one definitely feels like a

1838
01:54:29,040 --> 01:54:30,840
very interesting spot to me 
anyway. 

1839
01:54:31,600 --> 01:54:35,720
Yeah, I agree. 
I I'm definitely looking at that

1840
01:54:35,720 --> 01:54:39,240
as a a spot that I might want to
exploit and really the thing 

1841
01:54:39,240 --> 01:54:43,240
that I'm pretty interested in is
it looks hard for the Eagles to 

1842
01:54:43,240 --> 01:54:47,080
get the buy in my opinion I I 
think. 

1843
01:54:47,640 --> 01:54:48,520
Fair, fair. 
Fair. 

1844
01:54:48,560 --> 01:54:50,200
I. 
Think San Francisco probably has

1845
01:54:50,200 --> 01:54:53,280
it pretty locked up and so, 
yeah. 

1846
01:54:53,560 --> 01:54:56,480
Sorry, I've misspoke on that. 
Oh, no, no, no, you're you're 

1847
01:54:56,480 --> 01:54:58,760
good. 
But yeah, I'm. 

1848
01:54:58,760 --> 01:55:02,280
I'm just saying that if the 
vibes continue to trend the way 

1849
01:55:02,280 --> 01:55:05,840
that they are for the Eagles 
right now and you can get a. 

1850
01:55:05,840 --> 01:55:08,040
Full. 
Eagles onslaught. 

1851
01:55:08,160 --> 01:55:13,000
You know, Jalen Hurts, A.J. 
Brown, Dafonta Smith, DeAndre 

1852
01:55:13,000 --> 01:55:16,280
Swift, Dallas Goddard. 
Like, that's pretty. 

1853
01:55:16,280 --> 01:55:18,240
It's already attainable right 
now. 

1854
01:55:18,600 --> 01:55:22,480
But what I really want is I want
to be able to do that and mix in

1855
01:55:22,480 --> 01:55:25,840
one other high caliber piece 
from maybe a Super Bowl 

1856
01:55:25,840 --> 01:55:27,640
opponent. 
Like, I mix in a Chief's piece, 

1857
01:55:27,640 --> 01:55:30,360
or I mix in a Dolphin's piece or
a Dolphin's piece, right. 

1858
01:55:30,720 --> 01:55:34,280
And and then I'm off and I'm 
cooking with gas and I got the 

1859
01:55:34,280 --> 01:55:37,920
full Eagles onslaught and maybe 
they get it together and make a 

1860
01:55:37,920 --> 01:55:41,520
late push in the playoffs and 
you know get back to the Super 

1861
01:55:41,520 --> 01:55:43,120
Bowl. 
And all of a sudden I've got 

1862
01:55:43,160 --> 01:55:47,120
every Eagles player covered. 
And I happen to have a guy that 

1863
01:55:47,120 --> 01:55:50,200
you could only get during a 
certain window when the vibes 

1864
01:55:50,200 --> 01:55:53,440
were bad on the Eagles where you
were finally able to Nixon. 

1865
01:55:53,440 --> 01:55:56,840
You know you you got a Travis 
Kelsey with your Eagles your 

1866
01:55:56,840 --> 01:56:00,360
full Eagles onslaught like and 
and it's a rematch of the Super 

1867
01:56:00,360 --> 01:56:04,600
Bowl from last year. 
But anyway, I I think that's all

1868
01:56:04,600 --> 01:56:07,440
the time we need to spend on 
this tight end chart. 

1869
01:56:09,040 --> 01:56:12,400
Briefly flip to the backups here
for me. 

1870
01:56:16,000 --> 01:56:19,840
Yeah, no one, no one here that's
really even worth spending any 

1871
01:56:19,840 --> 01:56:23,000
time on, if you're like. 
Not, not at this stage of the 

1872
01:56:23,000 --> 01:56:25,120
season. 
If you're super disturbed and 

1873
01:56:25,120 --> 01:56:28,360
you're doing like a Chiefs stack
and you want to throw a Noah 

1874
01:56:28,360 --> 01:56:31,560
Gray on there for the Super Bowl
touchdown, you know, playing it 

1875
01:56:31,560 --> 01:56:35,480
like a showdown slate for 
playoff basketball, I I won't 

1876
01:56:35,480 --> 01:56:37,640
get mad at you. 
You know, if you're telling me 

1877
01:56:37,640 --> 01:56:40,280
you'd like Noah Gray over 
Cadarius Tony to be the guy that

1878
01:56:40,280 --> 01:56:42,600
gets the touchdown of the Super 
Bowl, like, sure. 

1879
01:56:43,800 --> 01:56:46,760
It's it's Week 50 and you can do
your own backup tight end 

1880
01:56:46,760 --> 01:56:52,560
analysis. 
So here we've got the wide 

1881
01:56:52,560 --> 01:56:57,800
receiver opportunity versus 
fantasy points and this chart 

1882
01:56:57,800 --> 01:57:02,880
we're focusing on the the 
receivers with 85 to 100% their 

1883
01:57:02,880 --> 01:57:06,120
teams routes, they're are their 
teams drop backs, they're 

1884
01:57:06,120 --> 01:57:09,040
running a route on the 
horizontal axis. 

1885
01:57:09,040 --> 01:57:13,240
We've got way to target sprout 
run which is target sprout run 

1886
01:57:13,240 --> 01:57:20,880
but it rewards and throws down 
the field and then doesn't it 

1887
01:57:20,960 --> 01:57:24,800
rewards those more than targets 
close to the line of scrimmage 

1888
01:57:25,360 --> 01:57:29,400
and sort of because we expect 
that to sort of like correlate 

1889
01:57:29,400 --> 01:57:31,560
more heavily with fantasy 
points. 

1890
01:57:31,720 --> 01:57:37,000
We've got a fantasy points per 
game on on the vertical axis and

1891
01:57:37,000 --> 01:57:40,520
and you can see that you can see
like there's a pretty like easy 

1892
01:57:40,520 --> 01:57:43,160
to draw trend line between those
two things. 

1893
01:57:43,520 --> 01:57:47,160
But then it also creates this 
sort of like interesting like 

1894
01:57:47,320 --> 01:57:51,240
quad map where you can see 
getting lots of down the field 

1895
01:57:51,240 --> 01:57:55,520
targets, scoring lots of points.
You can see the likes of 

1896
01:57:55,680 --> 01:57:59,240
Hollywood who is getting down 
the field targets maybe not 

1897
01:57:59,240 --> 01:58:03,440
scoring so much points. 
You can see as we go clockwise 

1898
01:58:03,440 --> 01:58:06,760
here this section where it's 
like not getting targeted, not 

1899
01:58:06,760 --> 01:58:12,800
scoring points and then you've 
got the scoring points but not 

1900
01:58:12,800 --> 01:58:15,520
necessarily getting the targets 
to justify those. 

1901
01:58:16,720 --> 01:58:20,640
It's and it's It's sort of 
interesting here I see Calvin 

1902
01:58:20,640 --> 01:58:25,160
Ridley is is like straddling 4 
all four lines and it's like 

1903
01:58:25,160 --> 01:58:30,160
which which way will he go? 
Yeah, yeah, the Calvin Ridley 

1904
01:58:30,160 --> 01:58:36,240
four corners experiment here. 
I'll I'll tell you that I I do 

1905
01:58:36,240 --> 01:58:39,680
think Calvin Ridley if if you 
have to pick one quadrant that 

1906
01:58:39,680 --> 01:58:41,560
you think he'll move in that 
direction. 

1907
01:58:42,000 --> 01:58:45,320
I just think with the Christian 
Kirk injury we're gonna see that

1908
01:58:45,320 --> 01:58:50,040
Jags offense consolidate really 
really heavily to you know 

1909
01:58:50,040 --> 01:58:55,040
Ridley say Jones and and Evan 
Ingram and you know they'll 

1910
01:58:55,040 --> 01:58:58,760
they'll mix in their their 
rookie whose name is escaping me

1911
01:58:58,760 --> 01:59:00,960
right now Parker Washington 
there we go. 

1912
01:59:01,680 --> 01:59:05,560
He'll he'll get mixed in but I 
mean didn't really have like 14 

1913
01:59:05,560 --> 01:59:09,280
targets I think Zay Jones had 14
targets I think Ingram had 11 

1914
01:59:09,280 --> 01:59:13,000
like this. 
This is looking like it might be

1915
01:59:13,000 --> 01:59:16,680
an elite fantasy offense for the
passing game. 

1916
01:59:16,680 --> 01:59:18,720
I mean, shoot, you're happy with
ETN too. 

1917
01:59:18,720 --> 01:59:22,480
Like they're looking pretty 
attractive for vibes. 

1918
01:59:22,480 --> 01:59:25,120
Are bad on the Jags right now 
like we talked about, you know, 

1919
01:59:25,120 --> 01:59:27,080
because Trevor Lawrence is never
going to walk again. 

1920
01:59:27,520 --> 01:59:33,640
But I mean, Draco, what if I 
told you that I could get Trevor

1921
01:59:33,640 --> 01:59:36,600
Lawrence as my second 
quarterback to help get one of 

1922
01:59:36,600 --> 01:59:40,240
my bye week teams through? 
Maybe I I got a 49ers stack and 

1923
01:59:40,240 --> 01:59:42,880
I'm trying to get Trevor 
Lawrence to help get me through 

1924
01:59:43,440 --> 01:59:48,120
and then I get 2 receiving 
options with him and those guys 

1925
01:59:48,120 --> 01:59:52,560
are good for 30 combined targets
in week one of the playoffs, 

1926
01:59:52,560 --> 01:59:55,680
like. 
And I'm able to get all of that,

1927
01:59:55,680 --> 01:59:59,600
you know, in the sixth round and
later to go with a pretty strong

1928
01:59:59,600 --> 02:00:02,280
49ers stack. 
Does that sound like something 

1929
02:00:02,280 --> 02:00:04,240
you might be interested in? 
Right. 

1930
02:00:04,240 --> 02:00:09,320
It's a it's a pretty like good 
prototype of the the secondary 

1931
02:00:09,320 --> 02:00:11,880
stock you should build, right? 
Yeah, yeah. 

1932
02:00:11,960 --> 02:00:14,040
It's, it's sort of takes all the
boxes there. 

1933
02:00:14,600 --> 02:00:20,720
Yeah, I do have some really good
news on this chart and that is 

1934
02:00:20,720 --> 02:00:25,520
that we are one CD Lamb alpha 
game away from him being the 

1935
02:00:25,520 --> 02:00:28,960
king of the wide receiver 
opportunity chart. 

1936
02:00:28,960 --> 02:00:32,960
We are going to get Keenan Allen
with the Easton, Keenan Allen 

1937
02:00:32,960 --> 02:00:37,880
with Easton Stick and you know, 
I I just have a hunch that 

1938
02:00:37,880 --> 02:00:41,760
Keenan Allen might see his 
fantasy points per game drop a 

1939
02:00:41,760 --> 02:00:46,880
little bit with Easton stick and
I mean CD Lambs looking like 

1940
02:00:46,880 --> 02:00:50,360
that alpha man. 
I I want to say it was week two 

1941
02:00:50,520 --> 02:00:55,040
that I said CD Lamb is moving up
and to the right and it aged 

1942
02:00:55,040 --> 02:00:57,680
poorly for a couple weeks. 
It didn't look. 

1943
02:00:57,680 --> 02:01:00,520
Great Week 4. 
You were like he's moving down 

1944
02:01:00,520 --> 02:01:03,880
to the left. 
I may have capitulated too early

1945
02:01:03,880 --> 02:01:09,120
because my original take was 
spot on Draco CD Lamb wide 

1946
02:01:09,120 --> 02:01:12,440
receiver one. 
Overall, he's the alpha that we 

1947
02:01:12,440 --> 02:01:16,400
deserve, you know, very, very 
hyped on CD. 

1948
02:01:16,400 --> 02:01:19,240
He's, he's balling the fuck out.
So that's been fun to watch. 

1949
02:01:19,800 --> 02:01:26,360
So I, I, I, I I don't wanna. 
So just opinion down there are 

1950
02:01:26,440 --> 02:01:31,080
are are you saying that next 
year you think CD Lamb should be

1951
02:01:31,080 --> 02:01:34,400
the first receiver gone? 
No, but I'll definitely be 

1952
02:01:34,400 --> 02:01:37,600
taking CD probably in the top 
five next year, I think. 

1953
02:01:37,800 --> 02:01:39,800
Right. 
I, I, I, I I think that's where 

1954
02:01:39,800 --> 02:01:41,880
he'll go. 
Yeah, and. 

1955
02:01:41,880 --> 02:01:46,560
And if he doesn't, this is this 
is the really crazy Cowboys 

1956
02:01:46,560 --> 02:01:48,880
pricing dichotomy that you get 
in basketball. 

1957
02:01:48,880 --> 02:01:51,600
And I've noticed this for all my
years playing basketball. 

1958
02:01:52,440 --> 02:01:56,160
You will I the Cowboys will 
never be appropriately priced. 

1959
02:01:56,160 --> 02:01:59,600
The Cowboys will either be way 
too expensive 'cause you're 

1960
02:01:59,600 --> 02:02:02,680
getting a rational exuberance 
from Cowboys fans and they're 

1961
02:02:02,680 --> 02:02:05,520
all drafting them and way too 
early. 

1962
02:02:05,800 --> 02:02:09,000
Or the Cowboys will be way too 
cheap because Cowboys fans are 

1963
02:02:09,000 --> 02:02:11,960
snaked bit and they're refusing 
to draft Cowboys players. 

1964
02:02:12,240 --> 02:02:15,960
And then you also just get the 
general sentiment of the market 

1965
02:02:15,960 --> 02:02:19,160
hating the Cowboys because 
they're the most fun team to 

1966
02:02:19,160 --> 02:02:23,320
hate and you get them pushed 
down from that bias there. 

1967
02:02:23,320 --> 02:02:27,160
So I feel like the Cowboys are 
like the team the market never 

1968
02:02:27,160 --> 02:02:30,480
can price correctly. 
So I pray that next season they 

1969
02:02:30,480 --> 02:02:34,480
fail to price them correctly. 
But I have a sneaking suspicion 

1970
02:02:34,480 --> 02:02:37,320
that they're they're gonna price
CD Lamb up next year. 

1971
02:02:38,280 --> 02:02:42,560
Yeah, yeah, I think that, I 
think that is true. 

1972
02:02:43,040 --> 02:02:48,280
And so do you think that his, 
his playoff basketball ADP is 

1973
02:02:48,280 --> 02:02:50,880
appropriate? 
I I see he's sort of like second

1974
02:02:50,880 --> 02:02:55,920
wide receiver ADP of three. 
Yep, yeah, it's pretty pretty 

1975
02:02:55,920 --> 02:02:59,520
efficient in my opinion. 
Right, 'cause he he's he's got 

1976
02:02:59,520 --> 02:03:04,960
the alpha share of, like, A-Team
pretty much guaranteed to make 

1977
02:03:05,000 --> 02:03:09,520
the playoffs. 
Yeah, let's see. 

1978
02:03:09,880 --> 02:03:14,280
I mean, Garrett Wilson has been.
Garrett Wilson doesn't know how 

1979
02:03:14,280 --> 02:03:18,080
to do anything other than catch 
every ball thrown his way. 

1980
02:03:18,360 --> 02:03:22,800
That man is so, so good. 
If if we had gotten an Aaron 

1981
02:03:22,800 --> 02:03:25,440
Rodgers season with Garrett 
Wilson, he also would be going 

1982
02:03:25,440 --> 02:03:27,720
top five next season. 
He is. 

1983
02:03:28,880 --> 02:03:33,120
He is. 
Possibly already a top five wide

1984
02:03:33,120 --> 02:03:37,000
receiver in the league like he's
that good. 

1985
02:03:38,040 --> 02:03:42,200
He just he looks so different 
than you know you you see him 

1986
02:03:43,040 --> 02:03:46,720
that's that's a that's a dude 
that is he's just built 

1987
02:03:46,720 --> 02:03:49,600
different than a lot of the 
other you know even the top 

1988
02:03:49,600 --> 02:03:54,720
receivers in the game like that 
guy's special so and we got a a 

1989
02:03:54,720 --> 02:03:57,880
game that Zach Wilson showed a 
little bit of competency. 

1990
02:03:57,880 --> 02:04:01,640
I mean I'm not, I'm not counting
on that going forward. 

1991
02:04:01,640 --> 02:04:04,960
But you know if you have Garrett
Wilson in a managed league and 

1992
02:04:04,960 --> 02:04:08,160
you're you're wondering if you 
you know can start him or not. 

1993
02:04:08,320 --> 02:04:11,680
I think at this point you're 
just at the the spot where it's 

1994
02:04:11,680 --> 02:04:14,200
a start, your studs kind of 
situation and you just got to 

1995
02:04:14,200 --> 02:04:17,360
roll them out right. 
You know QB play with, you just 

1996
02:04:17,360 --> 02:04:23,280
got to do it. 
And I guess asking about Amon 

1997
02:04:23,280 --> 02:04:27,360
Ross and Brown. 
So he's one where it it feels 

1998
02:04:27,360 --> 02:04:32,480
like you it feels like you're 
playing the the Lions as sort of

1999
02:04:32,480 --> 02:04:37,160
like one and done or like that 
that feels like the most likely 

2000
02:04:37,160 --> 02:04:43,480
for them and is is someone like 
Amen Rah is like an ADP of 21. 

2001
02:04:43,480 --> 02:04:48,120
Is that like OK to pay for like 
a one off piece or or let's say 

2002
02:04:48,120 --> 02:04:50,200
you get like a round of value or
something like that? 

2003
02:04:50,680 --> 02:04:54,320
Yeah. 
Is that too expensive to play 

2004
02:04:54,360 --> 02:04:58,160
one off pieces? 
I look at the Lions a lot like 

2005
02:04:58,160 --> 02:05:01,120
the Jags, right? 
So there's situations where you 

2006
02:05:01,120 --> 02:05:04,960
need those players and you'll 
know them when you see them. 

2007
02:05:05,240 --> 02:05:08,600
And so it just depends on what 
side of the conference you need,

2008
02:05:08,600 --> 02:05:11,800
what other pieces are sliding in
the draft, what other people 

2009
02:05:11,800 --> 02:05:14,640
have taken in the draft? 
Has anyone opened Lions in their

2010
02:05:14,640 --> 02:05:17,160
game tree? 
Has anyone opened Jaguars in 

2011
02:05:17,160 --> 02:05:20,680
their game tree? 
And and understanding the 

2012
02:05:20,680 --> 02:05:24,880
implications of you know those 
players being available and and 

2013
02:05:24,880 --> 02:05:29,480
also like what what the even if 
they haven't already opened 

2014
02:05:29,480 --> 02:05:32,880
Lions or Jags in their game tree
what the game tree is that 

2015
02:05:32,880 --> 02:05:36,600
they're in if Lions or Jags 
would be appealing to them. 

2016
02:05:36,680 --> 02:05:40,880
And so understanding, like will 
this be a path that would be 

2017
02:05:40,880 --> 02:05:46,120
contested for me where I'm not 
able to get all the the pieces 

2018
02:05:46,120 --> 02:05:49,320
that I want at value? 
Or is it something where this is

2019
02:05:49,320 --> 02:05:51,920
uncontested because of the way 
the room has shaken out? 

2020
02:05:52,760 --> 02:05:56,840
I can go for a really sick 
lion's back stack that can get a

2021
02:05:56,840 --> 02:05:59,960
bye wee team through. 
Going. 

2022
02:05:59,960 --> 02:06:02,000
Going through all the game tree 
stuff is something we're not 

2023
02:06:02,000 --> 02:06:03,600
going to do here because we've 
already gone. 

2024
02:06:03,600 --> 02:06:09,600
Well I I I just just to go back 
on my question and are you sort 

2025
02:06:09,600 --> 02:06:14,800
of telling me that like an ADP 
of of 21 here it it it's still 

2026
02:06:14,800 --> 02:06:18,840
too expensive unless you think 
there's a viable way for you to 

2027
02:06:19,320 --> 02:06:22,440
to build out that stack. 
What I'll what I'll say is the 

2028
02:06:22,440 --> 02:06:26,440
majority of the time there's 
many other players I want to 

2029
02:06:26,440 --> 02:06:28,600
take before him at that point in
the draft. 

2030
02:06:28,800 --> 02:06:32,520
He's often not my first choice 
at that spot in the draft. 

2031
02:06:32,840 --> 02:06:37,440
It would require a really 
specific run out in the room for

2032
02:06:37,440 --> 02:06:40,000
him to be the best pick at that 
point in the draft. 

2033
02:06:40,240 --> 02:06:43,560
So I'm willing to take him, but 
typically I'm taking him when he

2034
02:06:43,560 --> 02:06:45,880
falls. 
OK. 

2035
02:06:46,880 --> 02:06:49,960
Yeah that that that makes sense 
and and I think that that is 

2036
02:06:49,960 --> 02:06:52,480
when the one off sort of makes 
sense is like you're you're 

2037
02:06:52,480 --> 02:06:58,000
you're getting value. 
Let's see. 

2038
02:06:58,000 --> 02:07:01,240
Any anyone else here? 
I don't. 

2039
02:07:02,880 --> 02:07:06,040
Yeah, no, No one that's really 
like no major changes or 

2040
02:07:06,040 --> 02:07:07,560
anything. 
Like a lot of these guys, they 

2041
02:07:07,560 --> 02:07:08,960
are. 
They are what we thought they 

2042
02:07:08,960 --> 02:07:13,720
were at this point in a season. 
Anyone who wanted to call out 

2043
02:07:13,720 --> 02:07:18,720
before we go to the next chart. 
Yeah. 

2044
02:07:18,720 --> 02:07:23,680
So I see, I see Jordan Addison, 
we were talking about Vikings 

2045
02:07:23,680 --> 02:07:31,080
and and and then them being like
a 70% probability or yeah, a 

2046
02:07:31,320 --> 02:07:34,640
high probability to make the the
playoffs. 

2047
02:07:35,120 --> 02:07:38,120
And like Jordan Addison's going 
undrafted now. 

2048
02:07:38,120 --> 02:07:41,880
I know he he's in the bad 
section of the of the chart and 

2049
02:07:41,880 --> 02:07:44,880
you have you have the issues 
that we've had at quarterback 

2050
02:07:45,680 --> 02:07:52,120
for and for the Vikings but that
that seems like a little 

2051
02:07:52,120 --> 02:07:59,640
interesting if if he's gonna be 
undrafted and and then like he 

2052
02:07:59,680 --> 02:08:02,360
he he's definitely still like an
exciting like rookie. 

2053
02:08:03,400 --> 02:08:06,560
Yeah, Love Love Jordan Addison. 
The player super overweight on 

2054
02:08:06,560 --> 02:08:09,600
him in basketball, will draft 
him aggressively next year. 

2055
02:08:09,600 --> 02:08:11,880
Love loved his prospect profile 
coming out. 

2056
02:08:11,880 --> 02:08:14,000
Thought he was one of the best 
wide receivers in the class. 

2057
02:08:14,560 --> 02:08:17,720
I will have 0 Jordan Addison 
shares in playoff basketball 

2058
02:08:17,720 --> 02:08:21,520
because there's lots of times 
where Justin Jefferson goes 

2059
02:08:21,520 --> 02:08:25,960
undrafted. 
OK and and so that's fair. 

2060
02:08:26,280 --> 02:08:28,920
Yeah. 
I I never need you know I I 

2061
02:08:28,920 --> 02:08:32,520
don't think the outcome where 
the the Vikings make the 

2062
02:08:32,520 --> 02:08:37,520
conference championship is very 
likely at all. 

2063
02:08:37,560 --> 02:08:39,560
You know it. 
We're talking like all time 

2064
02:08:39,560 --> 02:08:43,400
miracles for that to happen and 
so that's what would need to 

2065
02:08:43,400 --> 02:08:46,480
happen for me to be considering 
Jordan Addison the way that I'm 

2066
02:08:46,480 --> 02:08:49,600
likely playing. 
It is like Justin Jefferson, one

2067
02:08:49,600 --> 02:08:54,960
offs only and and occasionally 
with whatever quarterback as the

2068
02:08:54,960 --> 02:09:00,240
situation crystallizes. 
But yeah, he's he unfortunately 

2069
02:09:00,240 --> 02:09:03,040
does not get to make my player 
pool for playoff best ball. 

2070
02:09:03,880 --> 02:09:08,440
I have to say I'm comfortable 
being the person asking the dumb

2071
02:09:08,440 --> 02:09:13,240
questions or saying the dumb 
things as maybe an instrument 

2072
02:09:13,240 --> 02:09:17,800
for you to make these points 
like I wanna be pretty 

2073
02:09:17,800 --> 02:09:22,520
transparent. 
I, I, I, I'm, I'm trying to like

2074
02:09:22,840 --> 02:09:27,040
facilitate conversation, but it 
it it's definitely not not 

2075
02:09:27,040 --> 02:09:29,040
something I have a lot of 
experience in. 

2076
02:09:29,120 --> 02:09:31,200
And they're they're not dumb 
questions, though, Draco, 

2077
02:09:31,200 --> 02:09:35,160
because this is the most 
different format than any other 

2078
02:09:35,160 --> 02:09:38,640
type of fantasy that people are 
used to playing. 

2079
02:09:39,120 --> 02:09:42,120
And there's a reason why it's my
favorite format. 

2080
02:09:42,120 --> 02:09:45,000
It's because I want to play the 
games that I'm better than 

2081
02:09:45,000 --> 02:09:49,280
everyone else had, and I am such
a disturbed individual. 

2082
02:09:49,280 --> 02:09:53,840
Like, I've spent so much time 
thinking through all the 

2083
02:09:53,840 --> 02:09:57,040
strategy of the game, doing the 
math surrounding playoff 

2084
02:09:57,040 --> 02:10:01,440
basketball, like looking at the 
historical data, you know, like 

2085
02:10:01,760 --> 02:10:04,920
if I am, if I'm having trouble 
sleeping at night, I'm. 

2086
02:10:04,920 --> 02:10:09,080
I'm literally thinking through 
different strategies and things 

2087
02:10:09,080 --> 02:10:11,280
like that for playoff 
basketball, or taking notes for 

2088
02:10:11,280 --> 02:10:16,560
things to research or look into 
or or go down like it's an. 

2089
02:10:16,720 --> 02:10:19,560
Obsession for you? 
Yeah, yeah, 'cause that's just 

2090
02:10:19,560 --> 02:10:22,720
how I am. 
And so I'm I'm trying now to 

2091
02:10:22,720 --> 02:10:26,240
take all of the knowledge that 
I've accumulated for this game 

2092
02:10:26,640 --> 02:10:29,720
and the advantage that I have 
and I want to share it with 

2093
02:10:29,720 --> 02:10:33,200
people. 
I I I just, I think that it's a 

2094
02:10:33,200 --> 02:10:37,760
game where I have such an 
advantage that I can probably 

2095
02:10:37,760 --> 02:10:41,640
get someone that listens to what
I have to say to win. 

2096
02:10:42,000 --> 02:10:45,200
So like I that's that's what I'm
playing for. 

2097
02:10:45,200 --> 02:10:49,440
Like of course I want to win, 
but I really, really want that 

2098
02:10:49,440 --> 02:10:54,000
message or that, you know, just 
to know like I helped someone 

2099
02:10:54,000 --> 02:10:56,280
bink something that would be 
really awesome. 

2100
02:10:56,280 --> 02:11:00,800
So. 
Well, I appreciate you, you 

2101
02:11:00,800 --> 02:11:06,240
sharing it with us. 
And so just just just to keep us

2102
02:11:06,240 --> 02:11:11,720
moving and I think we're ready 
to move on from this chart and 

2103
02:11:11,720 --> 02:11:17,280
displayed the true wide receiver
king of the 2023 and Tyree Kill.

2104
02:11:18,320 --> 02:11:22,840
And so this is our, this is the 
same chart, but it's the 70, the

2105
02:11:22,840 --> 02:11:29,920
85% roots run and really these 
guys are all starters too. 

2106
02:11:32,520 --> 02:11:38,040
But you you you have to if if we
put these guys along with the 

2107
02:11:38,040 --> 02:11:42,240
guys in the first chart it would
just be a pure BLOB so we have 

2108
02:11:42,240 --> 02:11:48,560
we have to separate them out 
somehow and interesting to see I

2109
02:11:48,560 --> 02:11:54,800
I guess Devo Samuels had had has
had some big games now and and 

2110
02:11:56,080 --> 02:12:00,520
he he's he's a he he's a 49er so
he's he'll obviously be come 

2111
02:12:00,520 --> 02:12:04,720
with a high value and and that 
that's sort of reflected in the 

2112
02:12:04,720 --> 02:12:08,040
price as well he's think of 
ADPADP is 8. 

2113
02:12:09,520 --> 02:12:12,400
Yeah, yeah, Debo. 
Certainly efficiently priced, in

2114
02:12:12,400 --> 02:12:16,680
my opinion. 
You know Nico Collins was a guy 

2115
02:12:16,680 --> 02:12:21,080
that prior to last week with the
injury I and the loss for the 

2116
02:12:21,080 --> 02:12:23,240
Texans, I was willing to make 
thin. 

2117
02:12:23,880 --> 02:12:27,920
Now the Texans are kind of do 
not draft list for me and it's 

2118
02:12:27,960 --> 02:12:30,840
again it's one where it's I'm 
totally happy waiting and 

2119
02:12:30,840 --> 02:12:33,080
seeing. 
Let me let me see if the Texans 

2120
02:12:33,080 --> 02:12:35,720
make the playoffs. 
If they do their price isn't 

2121
02:12:35,720 --> 02:12:38,480
gonna go to the moon. 
I'm not gonna miss out on the 

2122
02:12:38,480 --> 02:12:41,040
last chance to draft cheap 
Texans you know. 

2123
02:12:41,040 --> 02:12:45,960
So at this point you don't need 
to buy a Nico dip or buy a 

2124
02:12:45,960 --> 02:12:49,560
Stroud dip like don't get cute 
with this kind of stuff. 

2125
02:12:49,560 --> 02:12:52,800
Honestly, like there's so much 
stuff in playoff best wall where

2126
02:12:53,640 --> 02:12:57,240
once you get the the baseline 
strategy like the learning curve

2127
02:12:57,240 --> 02:13:01,000
isn't that steep. 
Once you you become educated on 

2128
02:13:01,000 --> 02:13:02,960
this is like the optimal way to 
play the game. 

2129
02:13:03,520 --> 02:13:06,960
You don't need to get that cute.
People suck at this game. 

2130
02:13:06,960 --> 02:13:09,440
They're so bad. 
It would be like if we're 

2131
02:13:09,440 --> 02:13:13,560
playing Texas Hold'em and your 
opponents just are like refusing

2132
02:13:13,560 --> 02:13:16,480
to use their second card. 
They get dealt 2 cards and they 

2133
02:13:16,480 --> 02:13:19,680
throw one off the table and they
just play with one card the 

2134
02:13:19,680 --> 02:13:21,800
whole time. 
Like you don't need to get cute 

2135
02:13:21,960 --> 02:13:24,800
when you got a good hand, call 
them when you don't have a good 

2136
02:13:24,800 --> 02:13:27,240
hand full. 
You don't need to get fancy. 

2137
02:13:27,240 --> 02:13:29,800
We don't need to range merge. 
We don't need to polarize our 

2138
02:13:29,800 --> 02:13:32,120
ranges or anything. 
We don't need to be, you know, 

2139
02:13:32,120 --> 02:13:36,640
looking at solvers, you know, 
just, you know, play ABC poker 

2140
02:13:36,640 --> 02:13:38,360
here. 
And so that's kind of the 

2141
02:13:38,360 --> 02:13:39,840
approach you take with playoff 
basketball. 

2142
02:13:39,840 --> 02:13:42,280
So don't need to get crazy with 
Nico Collins. 

2143
02:13:42,280 --> 02:13:45,040
Same thing with Mike Evans. 
Like, would I like to have some 

2144
02:13:45,040 --> 02:13:49,240
last round like let me let me 
paint you a picture, Draco, the 

2145
02:13:49,240 --> 02:13:53,840
Bucks win the division. 
I get my last three picks of the

2146
02:13:53,840 --> 02:13:58,680
draft to sneak my, you know, my 
Ravens team, Ravens get to buy. 

2147
02:13:58,680 --> 02:14:01,640
I'm trying to sneak the Ravens 
through on the bye week. 

2148
02:14:01,800 --> 02:14:03,280
My last three picks of the 
draft. 

2149
02:14:03,680 --> 02:14:06,000
Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, 
Rashad White. 

2150
02:14:06,080 --> 02:14:09,960
Who says no? 
Right, but you don't need to. 

2151
02:14:10,120 --> 02:14:12,560
Do it right now. 
Right. 

2152
02:14:12,560 --> 02:14:16,080
I I would say that that's 
another situation where you're 

2153
02:14:16,080 --> 02:14:21,440
perfectly happy with them as a 
stack but but you'll get that as

2154
02:14:21,440 --> 02:14:26,320
cheap as you want mostly pretty 
much the entire draft season and

2155
02:14:26,320 --> 02:14:29,320
and you get to wait until it's 
it's a short shame rather than 

2156
02:14:29,320 --> 02:14:32,200
yeah, yeah they try to get cute 
with it. 

2157
02:14:32,640 --> 02:14:34,760
Yep. 
You don't gain anything for the 

2158
02:14:34,760 --> 02:14:36,720
additional risk that you're 
taking right now. 

2159
02:14:37,040 --> 02:14:41,360
And that's really how I felt 
about the bills last week too is

2160
02:14:42,080 --> 02:14:44,440
and they didn't, they moved up a
little bit, but they didn't move

2161
02:14:44,440 --> 02:14:47,440
up all that much. 
But now it's we're kind of 

2162
02:14:47,440 --> 02:14:50,400
getting to critical mass. 
And I would bet you that through

2163
02:14:50,400 --> 02:14:54,440
this week the Bills continue to 
move up because the way that ADP

2164
02:14:54,440 --> 02:14:58,680
changes in these contests is as 
we get the new playoff odds 

2165
02:14:58,680 --> 02:15:02,680
delivered to us after all the 
games settle on Monday night. 

2166
02:15:02,960 --> 02:15:05,680
And you know all the the 
different sources that are 

2167
02:15:05,680 --> 02:15:08,240
providing these playoff odds, 
whether it's you know, New York 

2168
02:15:08,240 --> 02:15:12,520
Times or summer sports or what 
have you, you know you're 

2169
02:15:12,520 --> 02:15:15,760
looking at these odds. 
Once the market gets a hold of 

2170
02:15:15,760 --> 02:15:18,560
those, then there's a couple 
days of drafting where the 

2171
02:15:18,560 --> 02:15:21,600
market moves towards those new 
lines. 

2172
02:15:21,840 --> 02:15:24,720
And So what we're gonna see, I 
mean I'm already seeing the 

2173
02:15:24,720 --> 02:15:27,720
Bills move up. 
I bet they keep moving up past 

2174
02:15:27,720 --> 02:15:30,280
their current efficient price. 
So that's why I want to hit them

2175
02:15:30,280 --> 02:15:35,200
now and why I was willing to 
wait earlier and and kind of 

2176
02:15:35,200 --> 02:15:40,280
same same thing for but even to 
a greater extreme for these 

2177
02:15:40,280 --> 02:15:43,040
teams that don't really have a 
chance to make a deep run like 

2178
02:15:43,320 --> 02:15:45,160
the Bills. 
I can tell myself a story where 

2179
02:15:45,160 --> 02:15:47,400
they make a deep run and get to 
the conference championship 

2180
02:15:47,400 --> 02:15:49,360
right. 
But like, I have a really hard 

2181
02:15:49,360 --> 02:15:52,160
time telling myself that story 
with the Bucks or telling myself

2182
02:15:52,160 --> 02:15:56,720
that story with the Saints. 
And so that's why we we do, do 

2183
02:15:56,800 --> 02:16:01,640
with those guys, so. 
And so somebody else that that 

2184
02:16:01,640 --> 02:16:07,480
sends that to me here is that so
Quez Watkins he's in like the 70

2185
02:16:07,480 --> 02:16:13,160
and the 70% root share for the 
Eagles and he was somebody I who

2186
02:16:13,160 --> 02:16:18,200
I used to love the draft because
he's a starter for the Eagles 

2187
02:16:18,880 --> 02:16:23,080
and but he's in the like they 
never target him he just score 

2188
02:16:23,080 --> 02:16:27,640
any points is he worth is is is 
is that somebody who's 

2189
02:16:27,640 --> 02:16:31,800
worthwhile tacking on to the end
of a an Eagle stock or is it 

2190
02:16:31,880 --> 02:16:37,080
someone like what's the point. 
For me, not really, because 

2191
02:16:37,080 --> 02:16:39,040
right. 
Like I talked about, you can get

2192
02:16:39,080 --> 02:16:41,920
a full, you could get like a 
five man Eagles stack. 

2193
02:16:41,920 --> 02:16:44,440
Like you can go Jalen Hurts, 
A.J. 

2194
02:16:44,440 --> 02:16:49,719
Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas 
Goddard, DeAndre Swift. 

2195
02:16:49,879 --> 02:16:52,959
And then like you want a 6th 
Eagle, 'cause you they're making

2196
02:16:52,959 --> 02:16:55,559
the Super Bowl and you want to 
have an extra bet over everyone 

2197
02:16:55,559 --> 02:16:58,040
else that gets there. 
Throw Kenny, game well on there.

2198
02:16:58,080 --> 02:17:02,120
Like you don't even the the. 
Run out. 

2199
02:17:02,280 --> 02:17:06,879
Yeah the run out where you get 
to Quez Watkins is pretty hard 

2200
02:17:06,879 --> 02:17:09,879
for me to get there and I 
personally am am pretty low on 

2201
02:17:09,879 --> 02:17:14,480
the Eagles for for like their 
like you know you get. 

2202
02:17:14,480 --> 02:17:16,440
The Let let me put paint you a 
scenario, though. 

2203
02:17:16,440 --> 02:17:21,080
So you've you've taken Jalen 
Hurts and you've gotten A.J. 

2204
02:17:21,080 --> 02:17:25,920
Brown and DeAndre Swift. 
But you're in one of those 

2205
02:17:25,920 --> 02:17:29,639
drafts where people don't drop 
efficiently and they just take 

2206
02:17:29,639 --> 02:17:36,480
them on you and I guess OK, you 
you could you could you could 

2207
02:17:36,480 --> 02:17:41,320
take Kenny Gainwell and and pair
him with Swift. 

2208
02:17:43,639 --> 02:17:47,280
But is is even that a scenario 
where where Quez is worthwhile 

2209
02:17:47,280 --> 02:17:50,840
looking at or is it like, you 
know, I'll just take my lumps 

2210
02:17:50,879 --> 02:17:55,680
and I'll figure out how to to 
fit that like smaller Eagle 

2211
02:17:55,680 --> 02:18:00,080
stack into other stacks? 
I'd I'd definitely lean towards 

2212
02:18:00,080 --> 02:18:03,760
fitting a smaller Eagle stack 
and going deeper on my other 

2213
02:18:03,760 --> 02:18:07,920
Super Bowl opponent. 
What I'll say though is there 

2214
02:18:07,920 --> 02:18:12,320
can be value in showing up as 
the only guy with Kwez Watkins 

2215
02:18:12,320 --> 02:18:15,520
to the Super Bowl right? 
If it if if you get to the 400 

2216
02:18:15,520 --> 02:18:19,200
team final and you're literally 
the only guy with Kwez Watkins 

2217
02:18:19,600 --> 02:18:24,120
and like there's a non zero 
chance that Kwez pulls in a deep

2218
02:18:24,120 --> 02:18:26,879
touchdown or something and 
that's all the money right? 

2219
02:18:27,040 --> 02:18:32,440
But for me personally, I want to
make the higher probability bets

2220
02:18:32,440 --> 02:18:34,639
'cause like I said, the game 
doesn't have to be hard. 

2221
02:18:34,639 --> 02:18:37,760
Like we can kind of keep it 
simple in this format and and 

2222
02:18:37,760 --> 02:18:41,240
smoke our opponents so we don't 
need to get fancy with the Quez 

2223
02:18:41,240 --> 02:18:44,360
Watkins stuff. 
But if you want to, if you've 

2224
02:18:44,360 --> 02:18:47,760
got a lean that oh, I'm really 
bullish on the Eagles and I'm 

2225
02:18:47,760 --> 02:18:51,879
super overweight Eagles and you 
want to mix 1 Quez Watkins team 

2226
02:18:51,879 --> 02:18:54,040
in there, maybe, You know, if 
you're doing a ton of volume, 

2227
02:18:54,040 --> 02:18:57,080
maybe 2 Quez Watt, you know 
you're Max in the gauntlet, the 

2228
02:18:57,080 --> 02:18:59,160
mitten, the gauntlet, 2. 
The Mitten, 2. 

2229
02:18:59,160 --> 02:19:01,280
The Gauntlet returns, the Mitten
returns. 

2230
02:19:01,280 --> 02:19:03,480
The Mitten returns. 
Again, Like you're doing all 

2231
02:19:03,480 --> 02:19:05,799
that. 
Maybe you get. 3000 of dollars 

2232
02:19:06,520 --> 02:19:09,360
invested in Eagles sucks. 
Yeah, then you, Then you. 

2233
02:19:09,400 --> 02:19:13,040
Then you don't want to fade full
fade quiz, but otherwise you 

2234
02:19:13,160 --> 02:19:14,680
probably should. 
Yep. 

2235
02:19:16,080 --> 02:19:18,719
That makes sense and and that 
that is that is helpful. 

2236
02:19:19,400 --> 02:19:25,280
That is helpful for sure And 
anybody else you want to touch 

2237
02:19:25,280 --> 02:19:28,040
on here? 
Brandon Cooks all of a sudden 

2238
02:19:28,040 --> 02:19:31,799
becomes a really good pick for 
playoff basketball, right? 

2239
02:19:31,799 --> 02:19:35,520
Like he was just a mediocre like
whatever kind of player before. 

2240
02:19:36,600 --> 02:19:39,639
But like it's playoff best ball 
now and he's on a on a team with

2241
02:19:39,639 --> 02:19:41,959
high probability. 
So he's all of a sudden really 

2242
02:19:41,959 --> 02:19:45,520
good. 
You know Jalen Waddle the 

2243
02:19:45,520 --> 02:19:47,240
dolphin. 
The vibes around the Dolphins 

2244
02:19:47,240 --> 02:19:49,200
are now bad because Tyree kill 
is hurt. 

2245
02:19:50,760 --> 02:19:53,280
You know I'll I'll be honest 
like I'm I'm scared about the 

2246
02:19:53,280 --> 02:19:56,960
Dolphins too without Tyree kill.
So I've been I've been kind of 

2247
02:19:56,960 --> 02:19:58,840
just like waiting and I've been 
lurking. 

2248
02:19:58,960 --> 02:20:00,920
I'm lurking on my Dolphins 
exposure. 

2249
02:20:01,280 --> 02:20:04,880
So far this week it just, you 
know, if I get a big fall or I 

2250
02:20:04,880 --> 02:20:07,960
get I get put in a situation 
where the Dolphins are the 

2251
02:20:07,960 --> 02:20:11,040
highest EV path remaining to me,
then I'll take it. 

2252
02:20:12,480 --> 02:20:16,680
But you know, in the event where
Tyreek Hill's not right, maybe 

2253
02:20:16,680 --> 02:20:18,840
Jaylen Waddle has to step up. 
It's been a a bit of a 

2254
02:20:18,840 --> 02:20:22,840
disappointing season for him, 
but we've seen what this player 

2255
02:20:22,840 --> 02:20:27,560
can do, Like Jalen Waddle's not 
a Jag, you know, It's just it 

2256
02:20:27,560 --> 02:20:32,000
just really has been a down 
season for him, so maybe he 

2257
02:20:32,000 --> 02:20:35,800
comes on at the right time. 
You know, what if we got those 

2258
02:20:35,800 --> 02:20:40,200
kind of Jalen Waddle games that 
we saw with a decent frequency 

2259
02:20:40,200 --> 02:20:41,880
last season? 
It's not like Jalen Waddle had 

2260
02:20:41,920 --> 02:20:45,360
one Spike week last season. 
We all got head over heels for 

2261
02:20:45,360 --> 02:20:47,600
him. 
The guy was delivering Spike 

2262
02:20:47,600 --> 02:20:51,520
weeks pretty good last year, so 
I'm. 

2263
02:20:51,640 --> 02:20:53,920
I'm not willing to write him off
just yet. 

2264
02:20:53,920 --> 02:20:57,400
It's like a you know, I I think 
the the sentiment's pretty low 

2265
02:20:57,400 --> 02:20:59,800
on Jalen Waddle. 
You see him fall often in 

2266
02:20:59,800 --> 02:21:02,040
playoff basketball. 
So that's another one where it 

2267
02:21:02,040 --> 02:21:04,320
just, you know, keep keep an eye
out for it. 

2268
02:21:07,440 --> 02:21:10,040
OK, got it. 
Got it for sure. 

2269
02:21:10,520 --> 02:21:16,040
And so let's say let's move on. 
Oh my God, it's. 

2270
02:21:18,880 --> 02:21:21,840
It's Rashi Rice. 
Jayden Reed. 

2271
02:21:22,240 --> 02:21:25,200
Parker. 
Washington Curtis Samuel. 50 

2272
02:21:25,200 --> 02:21:26,960
feet of crap. 
Everyone else. 

2273
02:21:26,960 --> 02:21:29,000
Actually, that's a lie. 
Odo Beckham. 

2274
02:21:29,800 --> 02:21:32,560
His role is, is starting to come
on a little more. 

2275
02:21:32,560 --> 02:21:38,040
He's just like this low low 
snap, but you know higher. 

2276
02:21:38,800 --> 02:21:42,080
He he gets looks. 
He honestly, Odo Beckham is the 

2277
02:21:42,440 --> 02:21:47,120
Odo Beckham is Rashi Rice jumped
in a time machine, became dusty 

2278
02:21:47,520 --> 02:21:51,080
and plays for the labels, right?
Like, we'd love if he ran more 

2279
02:21:51,080 --> 02:21:54,160
routes and was on the field 
more, but it's like when he's 

2280
02:21:54,160 --> 02:21:57,040
out there, he's getting targeted
and he can do stuff. 

2281
02:21:57,400 --> 02:22:01,800
So I think that if you look at 
Odo Beckham as the geriatric 

2282
02:22:01,800 --> 02:22:03,520
Roshi Rice of the Ravens, 
that's. 

2283
02:22:03,520 --> 02:22:06,040
Probably. 
We know he reminds me of Antonio

2284
02:22:06,040 --> 02:22:08,880
Brown his last year with the 
Tampa Bay books. 

2285
02:22:09,880 --> 02:22:14,280
Yeah, where he was like a low 
snap share, but they were like, 

2286
02:22:14,280 --> 02:22:16,080
OK, this, this is one of our 
best players. 

2287
02:22:16,080 --> 02:22:18,120
We want to get him the ball 
whenever he's on the field. 

2288
02:22:19,040 --> 02:22:22,600
And so like it was like the the 
target share stuff ended up 

2289
02:22:22,760 --> 02:22:25,880
still being good. 
Yeah, that's that's a good call 

2290
02:22:25,880 --> 02:22:28,400
for sure. 
So yeah, Odell Beckham all of a 

2291
02:22:28,400 --> 02:22:30,880
sudden very sexy in playoff 
basketball. 

2292
02:22:31,120 --> 02:22:34,080
There's actually a couple guys 
on this chart that are are guys 

2293
02:22:34,080 --> 02:22:36,360
that I have good exposure to 
already. 

2294
02:22:36,360 --> 02:22:40,320
Not just like, oh, I mix them in
here and there, but like Michael

2295
02:22:40,320 --> 02:22:42,800
Gallup. 
Pack the bags, baby. 

2296
02:22:42,800 --> 02:22:44,480
Like give me, give me the 
Michael Gallup. 

2297
02:22:44,880 --> 02:22:46,840
Jalen Tolbert. 
Sure. 

2298
02:22:47,200 --> 02:22:49,160
Rashi Rice. 
Yes, please. 

2299
02:22:49,160 --> 02:22:52,480
A heaping helping. 
You know, like there's there's 

2300
02:22:52,480 --> 02:22:55,120
plenty of guys on this chart 
that actually are relevant for 

2301
02:22:55,120 --> 02:22:57,720
playoff basketball, but it's all
team driven, right? 

2302
02:22:57,720 --> 02:23:00,920
It's it's not that we think 
these guys are going to have a 

2303
02:23:00,920 --> 02:23:04,080
huge breakout or anything. 
It's just that five points in 

2304
02:23:04,080 --> 02:23:07,440
the Super Bowl can be worth 
$150,000. 

2305
02:23:07,440 --> 02:23:12,040
So that's that's why. 
And I do know that Rashi Rice 

2306
02:23:12,320 --> 02:23:18,960
had an 82% routeshare last week,
27% targets for run. 

2307
02:23:19,320 --> 02:23:22,360
So like he's keep he's that's 
one of those things where he's 

2308
02:23:22,360 --> 02:23:26,840
like increasing the route share 
and keeping the the target stuff

2309
02:23:27,880 --> 02:23:33,600
so like he he and and he had a 
solid week last week I've I've 

2310
02:23:33,600 --> 02:23:37,320
talked about Raashi rice to the 
moon but I I I think that's like

2311
02:23:37,440 --> 02:23:43,000
a genuinely like strong sign and
signal of like him becoming more

2312
02:23:43,000 --> 02:23:46,800
and more important and like 
reliable week to week in 

2313
02:23:46,800 --> 02:23:48,720
fantasy. 
I agree. 

2314
02:23:48,800 --> 02:23:52,360
I I think Raashi Rice is the 
Chiefs receiver to own. 

2315
02:23:52,360 --> 02:23:54,880
You know, of course Kelsey is 
going to be the one there. 

2316
02:23:55,320 --> 02:23:58,880
But you know, after Kelsey, it's
it's Raashi Rice as the guy to 

2317
02:23:58,880 --> 02:24:02,240
own if you're trying to play 
anything Chiefs in playoff 

2318
02:24:02,240 --> 02:24:05,400
basketball. 
So and like to me it's starting 

2319
02:24:05,400 --> 02:24:11,680
to to cook up like that rice 
will be like his. 

2320
02:24:11,680 --> 02:24:16,360
His value has has jumped so much
that it I think it might take 

2321
02:24:16,360 --> 02:24:20,600
the market like in in in next 
year's best ball a good while to

2322
02:24:20,600 --> 02:24:24,200
catch up like I hope. 
I just tell you the the what's 

2323
02:24:24,240 --> 02:24:25,760
that? 
I said I hope you're right. 

2324
02:24:27,080 --> 02:24:31,000
Like if I tell you that like 
he's gonna be an 80% routeshare,

2325
02:24:31,440 --> 02:24:37,000
27% target Sprite, run all all 
next year for the Chiefs it's 

2326
02:24:37,000 --> 02:24:40,440
like what's the what is the 
value on that is that that it's 

2327
02:24:40,440 --> 02:24:43,720
like really high right 5th. 
Round, sixth round. 

2328
02:24:44,360 --> 02:24:48,480
If Kelsey is still there, right?
Do you think higher? 

2329
02:24:49,360 --> 02:24:52,640
I almost wonder if it's higher. 
Do you like or? 

2330
02:24:53,400 --> 02:24:54,960
Would you say higher than the 
4th? 

2331
02:24:57,080 --> 02:24:58,240
Like that's that's where we're 
looking. 

2332
02:24:58,240 --> 02:25:00,560
I mean, higher than the, higher 
than the 4th. 

2333
02:25:00,560 --> 02:25:02,400
I started getting really 
uncomfortable. 

2334
02:25:02,920 --> 02:25:08,800
But like, I think like the Fort 
is like, yeah, maybe the Fort is

2335
02:25:08,800 --> 02:25:10,960
like the top of the. 
Ring cause like Brandon Nyuk was

2336
02:25:10,960 --> 02:25:14,600
going in the early 5th, right 
and I don't think that his value

2337
02:25:14,600 --> 02:25:16,920
gets there. 
I I think the 5th I think. 

2338
02:25:16,920 --> 02:25:19,640
I think. 
I think efficient price is 

2339
02:25:19,640 --> 02:25:23,280
probably the fifth round. 
I think 5 sixth earn maybe even 

2340
02:25:23,280 --> 02:25:26,040
but that's but I I bet you that 
we could get him. 

2341
02:25:26,080 --> 02:25:30,520
I I think you might be right 
that the market might let him be

2342
02:25:30,520 --> 02:25:32,440
a little cheaper than that for 
too long. 

2343
02:25:32,440 --> 02:25:35,400
So, but we've ruined it. 
Now. 

2344
02:25:35,400 --> 02:25:38,080
We told the ship chasers about 
it, and we've seen what ship 

2345
02:25:38,080 --> 02:25:41,520
chasers do to Kansas City Chiefs
wide receivers, ADP. 

2346
02:25:43,000 --> 02:25:46,840
And you know, I know there's a. 
Discount of it'll be quick. 

2347
02:25:47,240 --> 02:25:51,920
Yeah, he's no sky more with the 
the sickest name that we've ever

2348
02:25:51,920 --> 02:25:55,440
heard. 
But I got to say, Rashi Rice is 

2349
02:25:55,440 --> 02:25:59,640
a pretty sick wide receiver 
name, so we might need to make a

2350
02:25:59,640 --> 02:26:01,520
clip for next season. 
That's what I'm saying. 

2351
02:26:01,640 --> 02:26:06,360
Yeah, yeah, I, I, I'm, I'm 
hoping that I get fun, cheap 

2352
02:26:06,360 --> 02:26:08,360
ways to bet on Rashi rice next 
year. 

2353
02:26:08,760 --> 02:26:13,840
But we we'll see. 
We'll see. 

2354
02:26:16,480 --> 02:26:21,840
And I I think that's all that we
need to cover on this part. 

2355
02:26:22,680 --> 02:26:27,120
And so next week I will not be 
joining you. 

2356
02:26:27,120 --> 02:26:31,240
I'm gonna be traveling for the 
holidays, so I believe that 

2357
02:26:31,240 --> 02:26:34,080
you're going to have a special 
guest hosting with you. 

2358
02:26:34,640 --> 02:26:37,880
And we're going to get some 
industrious member from the ship

2359
02:26:37,880 --> 02:26:42,120
chasing Discord to run my code 
to pop out these charts. 

2360
02:26:42,120 --> 02:26:44,320
So we've still got them for next
week. 

2361
02:26:45,560 --> 02:26:50,320
Before I leave, I am going to a 
state where I'm not able to 

2362
02:26:50,320 --> 02:26:54,320
draft underdog teams. 
Very unfortunate, but you know 

2363
02:26:54,320 --> 02:26:55,920
what? 
Probably good that I'll be 

2364
02:26:55,920 --> 02:26:59,800
forced to spend some time with 
family and not not just be 

2365
02:26:59,800 --> 02:27:03,320
buried in my phone mindlessly 
drafting playoff basketball 

2366
02:27:03,320 --> 02:27:09,880
teams for the entire week, but 
we we are going to drop one more

2367
02:27:09,880 --> 02:27:12,960
premium pod over at leg up for 
playoff basketball. 

2368
02:27:13,520 --> 02:27:17,680
We Pat might get mad at me for 
this, but we should have the 

2369
02:27:17,680 --> 02:27:21,720
tool out this week. 
I would, I'd say earliest is 

2370
02:27:21,720 --> 02:27:25,800
probably tomorrow and probably 
Thursday by the latest, but I'm 

2371
02:27:25,800 --> 02:27:28,080
super excited to share that tool
with you guys. 

2372
02:27:29,000 --> 02:27:31,760
And so I I would anticipate that
we're certainly going to go over

2373
02:27:31,760 --> 02:27:35,160
some use cases for it on the 
Friday pod as well. 

2374
02:27:35,480 --> 02:27:40,800
And then once I'm back from the 
holidays, I'll be in you know 

2375
02:27:40,800 --> 02:27:43,240
all the all the usual Discord 
channels you can find me. 

2376
02:27:43,240 --> 02:27:46,080
But also over in the leg up 
premium Discord channel. 

2377
02:27:46,280 --> 02:27:49,120
I'm probably going to be doing 
some live drafts of playoff 

2378
02:27:49,120 --> 02:27:51,840
basketball there. 
And if you are drafting playoff 

2379
02:27:51,840 --> 02:27:55,640
basketball and you're new to it 
or even if you're not new and 

2380
02:27:55,640 --> 02:27:58,280
you're just wanting to make sure
that you're you're dialed in and

2381
02:27:58,280 --> 02:28:01,760
you're drafting really solid 
teams and you want me to to 

2382
02:28:01,760 --> 02:28:03,800
backseat you and kind of sit 
with you. 

2383
02:28:04,120 --> 02:28:06,800
We can hop in a voice chat there
and I'm I'm happy to do that 

2384
02:28:06,800 --> 02:28:10,760
with members of the community, 
try and get you guys in the best

2385
02:28:10,760 --> 02:28:13,680
position possible to shift these
playoff contests. 

2386
02:28:13,680 --> 02:28:18,520
So I won't be seeing you for a 
couple weeks, but Draco will see

2387
02:28:18,520 --> 02:28:22,240
you next Tuesday. 
Yeah, we'll see. 

2388
02:28:22,400 --> 02:28:25,360
Thanks everyone for listening in
and see you next Tuesday.