Oh. Week 14 is behind us and happy
National Best Ball Team Advancement Day.
To those who celebrate, this is stat chasing Pat Fryer Helmo.
This is why This is why I'm Hot Anita Handjob.
Fix your sight. Jamar.
And also play Chase. You can't handle the heat.
See, it looks like we're finally at this point.
You're right. We've been waiting all year for
this, Draco. The fantasy play offs are
finally here. Everyone's counting up and
tabulating all their advancing teams.
You're back from Ireland. Did you bring back a little luck
of the Irish to your advance rate?
Fuck off. So yeah, obviously Week 15 is is
what it's all about. Like that's that's that's when
everybody figures out did you play good or did you not play
good with no more information to come And then yeah we figure out
who who who had the highest advance rates and and and those
are the best players. Yep.
So obviously that that week 14 is is one event that that's
happened recently you had another event over the weekend,
you had you had a trip of your own.
I I did, yeah. You're you're actually talking
to the runner. Runner up of the dog bowl.
I don't. They don't give, you know like
fancy trophies or anything for that.
But I did take all of the swag I could pack in my suitcase.
So shout out to Underdog for this very comfy T-shirt that I'm
wearing to represent the brand. Honestly, I I feel like I need
to give them a little plug because.
So I I went to the DraftKings live final at King of the Beach
as a guest with J. Fresh a couple weeks ago, also
in Miami. That one felt a lot more like a
business event, if that makes sense.
It was like in a hotel conference room, very like it
felt like something I would go to for my work.
You know, people were nice. Like, it definitely was not as
communal and social as the underdog 1.
It was cordial. Yeah, yeah, certainly.
Like really, really fun event, really cool.
The underdog event was you could tell that they focused on making
the event the most fun, like community based experience they
could. The venue was really cool.
It was it was a really cool little sports bar, had good
food, open bar. Yeah, it's definitely a good
time there. I just, I thought the coolest
thing was at the DraftKings event, 'cause like when your
teams got dusted, like a lot of people just left and the the
sweat was for sure not communal. It was like everyone had their
own little, you know, pod. It was them and their guests or
or maybe someone they knew and they're sweating their own teams
and then once they were dead, they're out of there.
But at the the Underdog Dog Bowl Live final, it was like even
people who were kind of dusted and not like, not live for, you
know, a high finish. We're still out there sweating
like sweating their own climb up the ladder, sweating other
people's teams. It was a really fun, communal
event. And I I mean, people always say
like, oh, the community that we have here is like, that's what's
really good about it. But like, honestly, it is.
It was a really fun time to meet everyone in person and just get
to hang out. I was surprised how many people
there were not in the Deposit Kingdom Discord.
I mean it was basically an unofficial deposit Kingdom meet
up. But there were like three or
four people I talked to who like they knew me from stat chasing,
but they were like, Oh yeah, I'm not in the Discord.
It's like you need to fix that. Like, so if if you're one of
those people and you're here watching stat chasing but you're
not in the Deposit Kingdom Discord, let me just give a
little brief plug for the Discord.
So when you're on Twitter as a form of social media, it's kind
of like you're screaming into the void and then every once in
a while the worst people you could imagine show up to
interact with you. And that's why I'm not a huge
fan of Twitter, but Discord is way more like tight knit
community base. It's kind of like being in a
social club. And so the Deposit Kingdom
Discord is really nice, 'cause everyone there has shared
interests. You know, we're all sickos that
are way too into fantasy football and drafting and
basketball and lots of lots of really great people there
sharing tools or sharing advice or giving away Alpha.
So if you're not in the Discord, I would highly encourage you to
download Discord, get in the Deposit Kingdom channel.
I think we probably got a link for that in the show description
or something like that. But anyway, that's my.
Plug there is a Yeah there is definitely a link to the discord
in the in the show description. So yeah, I remember a year ago
and shipped when I when I went on ship chasing they said yeah,
here, here's the guys from the, from the the what you call it
the sister channel welcome to the flagship.
And now here we are saying we're, we're saying if you don't
know about these guys you should you should check them out.
Yeah, I I was just surprised that there were people that
watched the shows and and weren't in the Discord.
But I I get it. Like, you know, some people,
Discord just might not be their thing, or they hadn't stumbled
across it yet, so wanted to. Right.
It's a technical, logical lead for some people that is highly
worthwhile. Yeah, I I would definitely
agree. Have have made lots of cool
friendships through the Discord. Really looking forward to the
next meet up that we get to have, whether that's another
live event or drafting in Vegas for next year's best ball teams.
Yeah, for sure, for sure. So yeah, let me let me add our
our first chart. So obviously we it's it's week
15, we don't we've been doing this for almost four months now.
But quick a quick description of the chart.
We've got adjusted yards per tent which is like yards per
tent but it rewards touchdowns, pointers, interceptions.
We've got touchdown rate on the vertical axis and then the size
of the bubble corresponds to rushing yards per game.
And then the other sort of heavy caveat that we give with this
chart is that it's an efficiency based chart.
And the the sort of like idea behind that was that a lot of
quarterback scoring is down to good efficiency and or say
passing efficiency and rushing production because you have a
quarterback, he throws 3 touchdowns, very efficient, lots
of points. But I I guess what what we've
sort of like that we've sort of come into is that we we have
seen quarterbacks who are efficient but they don't have a
lot of past attempts. And so that that that is, I
guess that is the sort of like caution against somebody like
Russell Wilson who has been efficient but not enough
attempts to truly be a fantasy star.
He he he's been he's been OK but he he he not as not as good as
as as sort of this chart would suggest.
And then the other thing worth pointing out is so obviously
most of the season is Dawn and I guess we we do want to be able
to help people with their start set decisions as I I guess where
possible in sort of high stakes and FFPC stuff.
But the main, the main, the main actionable thing that we can do
on this show is the best ball. Actually basketball is the
playoff basketball stuff. And so that's that's going to be
our heavy focus from from here on now.
Yeah, definitely. We'll we'll put a little bit
more of a playoff basketball spin.
Especially Underdog just dropped their Gauntlet last week and
they dropped the Mitten and the Little Mitten and the Big Mitten
this week. So those are all really awesome
contests. Some of my favorite fantasy
football formats at the play. So if you haven't dipped your
toe into that format yet, I would highly recommend it.
It will almost certainly be your, if not your, most
profitable. It will definitely be the format
where you have the largest edge because all it takes is a little
bit of education and you will immediately be be better than a
large amount of the field. There's a lot of people that
don't understand the format. And the brutal thing about the
format if you don't understand is you can preclude yourself
from even being able to win the the top prizes if you don't know
what is going on. And so that's why I really like
the game. If you don't really understand
the strategy behind it, you're basically drawing dead from the
get go. So we we do cover that over at
Leg Up. We've put out a free podcast
over on the Leg Up YouTube channel and the Leg Up podcast
feed. We just dropped our first
premium podcast on the Playoff Contest this week as well, and
we are going to have another one coming later this week.
And not to. Let's see.
I don't know if Pat's going to be mad at me for teasing this
here too. But we do have a tool that we're
releasing that we've been testing pretty rigorously all
week, just dialing it in, making sure it's good.
And and really the goal of it is to have it be like Pat and I are
sitting right next to you helping you draft and we're
trying to take away a lot of the more complex strategy points and
what you'd have to think through on the fly.
And we're just trying to present to you much simpler decisions
where you're able to build out really strong teams.
So definitely looking forward to sharing that but to to get to
the chart here I thought Draco's point about the fact that we
don't have passing volume on this reflected on this chart is
really important. A really good way to illustrate
that is for example you know of course you're happy starting
Brock Purdy in fantasy right? He's he's been extremely
efficient. Offense is one of the best in
the league. Incredible weapons.
Like you're, you know, Brock Purdy scoring 3 touchdowns in a
week Doesn't even seem, it doesn't even really even seem
like a ceiling outcome anymore. It's like, yeah, 3 touchdowns.
That's about right for for Brock Purdy, The thing is.
Yeah. The The thing is the the 49ers
don't throw the ball as often as other teams do.
And so, for example, if you look at Dak Prescott just based on
this chart, you would think, oh, Brock Purdy might be better than
Dak Prescott for fantasy. But The thing is, the Cowboys
pass the ball like like there's no tomorrow.
And so Dak is almost as efficient as Brock Purdy, but
he's doing it with so much more volume that he's going to be a
little bit more desirable for fantasy.
Not a ton. They're both great picks, right?
But that's just kind of what you have to consider since volume
isn't being reflected on this chart.
And so to to kind of transition this into, we'll do our first
little playoff best ball spin here.
The quarterback is a really important position in playoff
best ball and it's really because you don't want to
allocate a ton of capital to it. So you want to make the
quarterback or quarterbacks you pick really count.
And so that means that the pool of viable quarterbacks is pretty
limited. So like for example, I've been
drafting a lot today and yesterday and like Tua is one of
the worst quarterbacks that I'm happy to get.
And I that that seems kind of weird.
You're like, oh, Tua's been great and he's attached to
Tyreek and we'll we'll certainly get into the Tyreek injury stuff
later. But Tua is kind of one of the
last stops on the train that I feel good about.
And so really it's kind of a a difficult thing to wrap your
head around where there's so few quarterbacks that are really
viable to have you be live for the the top prizes in this
playoff format. I thought that was I think
that's interesting. So I guess my I, I I haven't
played Neri as much as you and and so I and I'm guessing other
people share this opinion that when you when you sort of cramp
down the number of positions that just by virtue of pure
number of points that quarterbacks score.
I I would I would have taught that it's actually a very
important position that way when you get your 3040 points that
it's that it absolutely pays off a high cost.
Are are are you saying that's not the case?
No, no, it quarterback is a very important position, but there's
weird dynamics surrounding it where the diminishing returns
you get from quarterback, from your first quarterback to your
second quarterback, are pretty substantial.
And so you need to be really thoughtful about when you're
taking a second quarterback versus when you're only doing
one quarterback and some of this stuff I'll you know the the
deeper strategy dive stuff. I know not ever in here is going
to play playoff basketball. So we'll we'll keep that for the
the leg up podcast but definitely want to educate
people who are interested in playing and and get them at
least away from some of the worst habits you can have.
So for example, I have seen some people in Discord channels
talking about 3 quarterback builds or Oh well, I built this
three quarterback team and it's possible for it to win, 'cause
this could happen and this could happen, and that's a path, so it
can win. And it doesn't matter that it's
thin. All you need is a team that can
win, to which I would say you're a donkey.
Don't do that. Don't draft 3 quarterback teams.
It's not good. So yeah, just you shouldn't be
doing that. If you if you want to do it, you
know, and donate money to the rest of the people in the
contest, you definitely can. But you really don't ever want
to be taking more than two quarterbacks.
So that's that's just kind of a a good rule of thumb.
So just to add some new ones, we've obviously got our cover
boy, Lamar Jackson and and and to me, he's definitely in a
league quarterback. We've been pounding the table
from all season and but one one of the things that I I'm I'm
looking at some of the the the available data for playoff best
ball. And I'm sort of surprised that
if you look at a lot of the models, the Ravens are one of
the highest they've got, the highest, one of the highest
probabilities of making the playoffs of winning the Super
Bowl. And their quarterback Lumari
Jackson he has an ADP on underdog right now 12.1.
And of any of any of the teams with that kind of like high
Super Bowl odds that's like by far by far one of the later ADPS
for quarterback or or or or for first position for first team
player taken and and and I guess is, is that sort of an example
of of of maybe and even even though that the price is
somewhat high the relative relative to the elites and the
team, the team Super Bowl probabilities, it's still good
or have I just read that completely wrong.
No, what I So what I would say about Lamar is the Ravens as a
whole as a team were one of the most mispriced teams in the
first week when the contest opened right away.
So I tried to get as much exposure to the Ravens as I
possibly could. Now with the Ravens looking like
they're you know, they're really control their own destiny as far
as if they get the buy or not. So when teams get a lot of when
the when the picture becomes more clear around which teams
are getting the buy sometimes that can actually depress a a
price just a little bit not a ton.
You know there's still a high degree of confidence in that
that team is a a Super Bowl favorite or one of the the
stronger probabilities to make the Super Bowl which makes them
a very desirable pick. But the buy definitely makes it
a little bit more difficult to get that team through the first
round and so I I do think Lamar is probably depressed further
than he should be and the rest of the Ravens are are also
depressed further than they should be.
So I've been hammering that a lot.
I really do like the Ravens as a pick and then there's kind of a
it's really more of a a game theory and risk tolerance
approach to what you should be doing around quarterbacks like
Lamar and Purdy who right now those are the two teams that are
the favourites to get the buy in their conferences.
Some people will say that you should Right now, while there's
uncertainty, just draft only one quarterback teams pretend none
of the quarterbacks that you draft get the buy.
So that in the scenarios that play out where the 49ers
actually don't get the buy or the Ravens don't get the buy,
those one QB teams you've drafted with Brock Purdy or with
Lamar Jackson all of a sudden are really strong relative to
the other two quarterback variants that the field might
have been drafting at the same time because they were trying to
protect their team in the event that the Ravens or the 49ers got
the buy. And so I certainly think that's
viable. The way that I do it is I'll
draft someone, quarterback versions of those strong buy
favorites and in certain lobbies where I'll get falling value on
what I think are good second quarterbacks to take to help try
and get me through that bye week.
That's when I'll make the decision to say this is going to
be a build where I do draft in the scenario that the Ravens get
to buy. And so I'm going to take Lamar
with a second QB or I'm going to take Purdy with a second QB.
So that's a little bit of the, the thought process you want to
be going through when you're determining, you know, do I take
a second quarterback or not? Got it and and and Speaking of
second quarterbacks and particular particularly with the
the teams where the your first quarterback you're pretty
confident that they will get the buy or reasonably sure and one
of the things I wondered about was at this point with the with
the. The more marginal playoff hopes
still being very much in play. Are you are you just sort of
leaning into that like for for just for example I see that for
for example the Bills they're given somewhere between 35 and
40% playoff probabilities and then Josh Allen is going I think
pick 22 like that that that definitely seems too too early
But then for example the Texans who and and and we've been happy
with Cedar Strad all year they're given they're given
something like 35% so like just a little bit lower and then
their quarterback is way is way cheaper.
Like obviously I've I've sort of teed up like a perfect or or a
good comparison and but are are are you happy to to take the
quarterbacks of teams where it's more marginal or are are you
sort of sticking to 50% and above?
Typically I'm sticking to 50% and above.
So prior to this week when the Bills upset the Chiefs, I wasn't
taking any bills because they were still going basically
around the same price. Their ADP has climbed a little
bit, but you would get just people that I thought were
playing the game suboptimally, taking the Bills basically as
early as they're going now, prior to them, you know, nearly
doubling their playoff odds by beating the Chiefs, right?
And so I wasn't really interested in doing that because
in the universe where the Bills lose to the Chiefs when Cadarius
Tony is not offsides, right, all of a sudden those Bills teams
are stone dead, right? They go from like 25% playoff
probability all the way down to like maybe sub 10% if they lose
to the Chiefs there. And so I wasn't.
Now that they're 40% and I think I think the Bills are a good
example of a team that's way way overvalued like wait cause like
Tampa Bay or 46% on on PFF anyway like Green Bay or 51
Denver or 53 Now they're probably not as as as live if
they get in but the the price difference is is is just
astronomical and and I guess just to get into what I'm asking
for these sort of like these these are marginal teams to make
it is it still worth is it still worth it to to stack to use AQB
and and and sort of stack up those teams at this point when
it's still. Yeah, there can be circumstances
where it is worthwhile to do that.
But for example, for those really marginal teams you talked
about where if they get in it, they're probably pretty big
underdogs to whoever they play. Like, you know, or the Falcons
or, you know, the Bucks, the the big difference between those
teams and the Bills is if the Bills do get in, their
probability to actually win a game is going to be much better.
And so that trickles through to their odds of actually making
the conference championship, which is one of the things I
think is most important to focus on, which is one reason why I am
drafting some Bills now in situations where it makes sense.
Usually I never am going into the draft with that as my
primary game plan. That's always like my Plan B or
what I need in the you know, as a second quarterback situation
type of thing if it falls cheap enough to me.
But for those other Now think about what happens to the Bills
ADP if they win another game. So let's say the Bills go out
and they beat the Cowboys this week.
Now what happens to the Bills? ADP it.
It it it it, it's obviously the bills.
So what? What problem do they go to like
60%? I don't know exactly what
probability they'd go to, but it would certainly go up.
But the point I'm trying to get AT is the market will be even
more bullish on them than the probability they would imply,
right? And so because I was out on the
Bills in that first drafting window of last week, I'm willing
to get some bills now because if they win again, I probably won't
get very many more Bills teams. They're I'm.
This is probably the last stop on the train for me for getting
the Bills. And so for those other teams
like the Broncos or the Packers or the Rams or any of the NFC
South teams, it doesn't matter if those teams become 100%
playoff probability, their ADP is still going to be super late.
You can still get them with your last pick or last two picks.
So there's no reason to expose yourself to that risk now.
You can just wait and wait out the uncertainty there and get
the exposure that you want in your portfolio later when
there's more certainty, whereas you can't really do that with
the bills and get some of the combinations that you'd be able
to get now. Right that makes sense as like a
the the more they're they're very visible so like the market
is going to be any very sensitive to any change in in
their playoff probability where's you you can you can
probably wait for one of those teams marginal teams to get the
70% and and their price won't change is is what you're saying.
Yep. You can wait till you see it.
Yeah, that that makes sense. That makes sense.
So like like you said at the start you're focusing on on on
the players with 50% and above with and nuances exception for
the Bills and I I guess that that just sort of narrows down
the pool a good bit and not a lot of I guess not a lot else to
it, is there? No, no.
Yeah, we we don't have to stay on the the playoff basketball
topic for too long because I know there there certainly are
going to be some people here that are are really just
interested in you know start sit information or or DFS or things
like that. And so really the only stuff I
had to touch on on the chart, you know CJ Stroud could miss
this week with a concussion. You've also got the Nico Collins
injury. I do think that CJ Stroud is is
one of those special quarterbacks that just elevates
whatever is around him. So while you certainly would
dock him a little bit in projection for not having Nico
Collins, if he gets Schultz back and he's, you know, he's got
Noah Brown and Robert Woods out there running routes, I still
think that CJ Stroud, I just think he's good enough that he's
going to make it work. Just like now this is, this
might come across as a little bit aggressive of a comparison
and I, you know, don't hear what I'm not saying.
But what we've seen from Patrick Mahomes this season where he has
no weapons whatsoever outside of Kelsey.
Right. And he's still kind of making it
work. You know there's a lot of games
where he doesn't put up a a fancy performance you're super
excited about but he's at least doing halfway decent.
You know I I think I, I kind of look at Stroud as like a a
little mini Mahomes. You know like he's.
I don't I I mean you know we're not we're.
Not the the injuries to his weapons it it brings it brings
that down the expectation a little bit.
It it does. The expectation should still be
high. Yes.
So you might miss him this week, but I I would still say that
there's gonna be a lot of situations where you're looking
at Stroud versus whatever other quarterback you could start over
him. And I'm probably going to, in a
lot of those situations, I'm going to be leaning towards
Stroud, so I just just wanted to put that out there.
So I, I, I, I know he, we I know he said we we were going to move
on from playoff best ball. And but I have a really dumb
question I want to ask you. So you're talking about teams
that have sort of consolidated their playoff probability and
then could actually make noise once they get there.
And in terms of like the predictive models, the Browns
are sort of predicted to be a team like that.
And then if Joe Flacco is the quarterback going forward, is
that like, just completely ridiculous?
No, I don't think it's completely ridiculous.
We discussed the Browns and that whole situation for the team and
how to play it in depth on the most recent Leg Up premium
podcast, So I'm gonna keep that one a little under wraps.
But I'll just say for for our purposes, no, I don't think it's
ridiculous. OK, OK, sounds like you might
agree with me, but you you're you're you're leaving some of
the details to to that podcast. Fair.
Fair enough. Any any other quarterbacks here?
I mean, I'd be surprised, but. I mean some of the we we've got
to talk about what's going on with the Vikings.
You know there's Josh Dobbs been benched it looks like it's
probably going to be Nick Mullins going forward.
Would be my best guess right. I do think that Nick Mullins is
actually not bad. Like I I think there's a decent
chance he's the best quarterback on the roster right now the best
healthy one anyway outside of Kirk Cousins.
But so I I I don't you know we've we've seen those good
games from Dobbs and so we're more comfortable playing Vikings
weapons when Dobbs is out there because it it just it's
something that's more known. We we've already seen it But you
know remember Nick Mullins executed just fine in the 49ers
system which you know of course is a system that absolutely
anyone can you know any competent quarterback is going
to be able to execute in that and look good and and the Viking
system isn't going to be quite as friendly.
But you know if you get Justin Jefferson back and he is healthy
which gosh what an absolute tease.
You know the the first week that Jefferson's back in the lineup
and he just gets a hospital ball from Dobbs and gets blown up
over the middle. You hope hope to see him back
out there for this the fantasy playoffs here.
But I would say that if Jefferson is out there, you
know, you probably dock in a little bit for having Mullins as
quarterback, but I I wouldn't be overly aggressive with that and
you know, compared to what you'd be doing for Dobbs anyway, so,
so we're. We're putting Mullins in in the
sort of competent backup QB where he doesn't just tank the
team like the the wheels stay. The wheels may be frayed, they
may be scratched, but they're still on the wagon.
Yeah, like, I mean, we've already, we've seen some pretty
great stuff from Jake Browning already, like he's looking very
competent as a backup, right. And so I don't know that I'm
ready to say that Nick Mullins is all the way to like the Jake
Browning level of competent backup, or or at least the
performances we've seen so far. From him.
One of the big things that people forget about these backup
quarterbacks is it's it's not as hard to do it for one or two
games as it is to do it consistently week after week,
Especially when teams get film on you, when teams are ready to
understand your tendencies and find ways to exploit you, that's
when quarterbacks. That's like, that's what we've
seen with Josh Dobbs, right? He gets somewhere, he's got a
couple good weeks under him, then the film is out.
Teams are able to study up on his tendencies.
Right. And and that's a very frequent
occurrence every year where like somebody like you you've never
heard of comes out, they come out flaming hot and then after
two games like they're just completely shut down.
Yep, the tape, the tapes out. No more secrets.
So the really good quarterbacks are the ones that are able to do
that consistently week after week.
So I still think it's probably too early to say that
definitively about Browning and we've got, you know, a low level
of confidence that Mullins is going to be competent.
But if I were going to place my chips on a a bet, I would say
I'd be more willing to bet that Mullins is in the competent
category than, you know, being in like the Bailey's Appy
category. Although Bailey's appy had a
couple nice looking throws on that Thursday night game.
I mean, granted, he's still just abysmal on this chart.
Like he does not look good, but even Bailey's appy can run hot.
Every once in a while, they're they're NFL players.
Yeah, yeah, they're. These guys are in the league for
a reason. It's not just you or me coming
off the couch. Like, I think I can throw it
like 10 yards. Like, no, these these guys were
some of the best athletes in the world, so.
Right. Really, really hard for a very
long time. Yeah, yeah.
So anyway, I don't think there's, oh, you got the Geno
Smith situation. From what I've heard, he should
be able to be back and healthy. It was just a little one week
stint from Drew Lock. But yeah, I mean if you're if
you're in a situation where you're having to do a start sit
with Geno Smith, that's gonna be a a tougher one in my opinion
like so. So let's just say hypothetically
both Jake Browning and Geno Smith are healthy next week.
Who are you starting, Geno Smith or Jake Browning?
I think you still go with Geno Smith.
Just my my opinion and fully healthy and it's it's like you
said with the the Bengals doing the screen game team and and
then mixing it up with some good trolls too like it.
It definitely feels like a dumbed down offense to to go
with the strength of a limited quarterback.
That is something that NFL defenses are gonna be able to
figure out so and then Geno Smith he he does obviously he
he's had his struggle games too but I think he's he's had a
longer sample size of of of good performance as well and so that
I guess putting aside recent results I I I would prefer Geno
personally. OK, now I've got a question for
you. I really am asking you this
question rather selfishly. I need you to deliver me a
healthy dose of Copium. So I had Justin Herbert as my,
you know, primary quarterback on a.
You shouldn't start him. Yeah he he.
Well, he was my primary quarterback on A555 team that I
managed to advance. The team looks pretty good.
Almost no injuries outside of Herbert.
I think it's got Corey Davis on there and I I want to say those
are the only two dead roster spots.
So it's got CMC, Pollard Mostert, Mike Evans, Keenan
Allen, like it's it's Zay Flowers.
It's stunning. Yeah, team looks strong.
The only downside is my last remaining quarterback is Desmond
Ritter. So I need Desmond Ritter to make
it through a 555 playoff gauntlet.
Now for for those of you that aren't out in the 55 streets on
DK, the advanced structure is a little easier to get through.
You know these playoff rounds, I want to say it's it's one of six
and then one of five and then the finals is 1 of 29, I think.
So can Desmond Ritter drag my 555 team to the finals and win
me a middle league? You know, I hope so because I
have a very similar team with with Sean and our two
quarterbacks were Desmond Ritter and Aaron Rodgers.
And at some, like if the team overall is good enough to have
gotten through to the playoffs with Desmond Ritter as the only
quarterback all year, good. That's like just give me a
couple more weeks. I mean he he threw, was he the
passing leader this week? I believe that he was I.
Don't know. Yeah, I think he was in fact the
passing leader this week. I mean, Drake London went
absolutely nuke. So yeah, I would just like to
put in my request for Desmond Ritter one time for all the.
He was. He was passing yard #2 and Rock
Purdy had 368, Ritter had 347 and then Will Lavis had 327.
Yeah, now I've got another another fun one, some major
copium required for this one as well.
I managed to sneak abbt team through on FFPC just by the skin
of my teeth. Now it does have some
quarterbacks, but this team has been tilting me all season
because I had gone on vacation this summer.
I've been, I was doing this draft with a couple buddies and
I said, hey, I'm, I'm on vacation.
So like sometimes I might not get to the queue in time.
I need you guys to make sure we're we're on top of it
collectively. So we don't auto draft anything.
We make it to the last two rounds, no auto drafts.
We're doing good. We've got some guys in the
queue. I think we had you know like
we're had two, two and PUKA in the queue.
Unfortunately we get auto drafted and two, two was higher
than PUKA. So we took two, two, and then I
I take PUKA out of the queue because I'm like, all right,
that's enough dark throw at Rams wide receivers.
You know we'll we'll ride with the 2/2, right?
You don't need, you need don't need the second one.
Nope, Nope. And so then I I managed to miss
that last pick. That 20th pick, you know, wasn't
able to make it to the phone in time before I got auto drafted
and Ryan Tannehill got auto drafted.
We didn't have AQ set. He was just top of ADP.
So we we've got a Ryan Tannehill team on it has no need for Ryan
Tannehill whatsoever. It's got two functional
quarterbacks. I think it's like Dak and Tua or
something. And So what I'm asking you here
is will Levis kind of hurt his shoulder during that game.
You know he dropped a shoulder when he was rushing and and
trying to bowl over a defender. So do.
You think the one with Ramsey? Yeah, do you think that there's
a chance that Will Levis gets himself knocked out of the game
and Ryan Tannehill could be the guy that I need to take down the
BBT? I appreciate that you were able
to keep a straight face for. Yeah, it was.
It was difficult. I'm just, I'm trying to cope
with the stupid Tannehill auto draft that probably should have
been puka, but. Anyway, I mean, if it makes you
feel any better, imagine that it was a Sean.
That it was who's their Their. The the Tampa Bay or Retreat?
The guy, the rookie. That was Sean Tucker.
Just imagine it was Sean Tucker. Yeah, it definitely it could be
Sean Tucker. I have plenty of Sean Tucker,
though, on my big board. Team No.
What I'm saying is he'll score the same amount of points as
Sean Tucker. Feel much better.
That's that is a fairpoint. Yeah, my man.
As a brief aside, my big board team running back rooms are the
funniest thing I've ever seen because they're like a lot of
them are zero RB teams. But it's like Sean Tucker and
Chase Brown and Izzy A Bonaconda and it's like I've got like 6
running backs on a team and it's Raheem Monster and like Tyler
Algier are the only ones with any points actually scored on
the season. So it's.
Really it's it's honestly for the the, the before the draft
stuff, it's really hard to keep a solid team together.
But yeah, it's fun. You're.
You're just trying to find a needle in a in a haystack.
Yeah, I'm, I'm looking forward to that contest next year
though. I had a pretty good advance rate
this year and it and I I think I I know where my leaks were.
I'm I'm looking to plug him for next year.
I yeah, yeah, I I I I I've. I've had similar moments where
I'm like I I I I can see the mistake I made there.
Yeah. All right.
I think that's all there is to talk about on the quarterback
chart here. Go ahead and move on to running
back chart. Here we go.
And so this is our are running back snaps and usage chart and
so this is this, this is essentially when a running back
is on the field we really want rush attempts and and and and
you can see that the some of these players bordering on or or
close to 40% of their team snaps is rushing attempts to them.
Obviously that that's helpful and then you have routes and and
that's the percentage of their team's plays that these teams
are running a route and that that's helpful because with the
exception of CMC most most of them aren't primary sort of
targets in the passing game. And so when the ball goes to
them it's because there's sort of secondary option and and the
best way to take advantage of that is to just be on the field
a lot you've got pass blocking which helpful to know who's
trusted to do that and then run blocking and just because why
not. And so I I guess I, I I guess I
think we should take a similar focus to this chart and I was
sort of thinking about it that the the probably the most
helpful way and that we can our best way we can help people with
playoff best ball is on those sort of marginal teams or or say
on those high high ADP high expected to make win the Super
high probability to win the Super Bowl.
Who are the ancillary pieces that are are worth sort of
taking? Good.
Good question. So here it it, we're not going
to run into a ton of the ancillary pieces on.
This chart, that's that's true. And so then I guess the flip
side would be on the lower probability to make the OR
sorry, lower probability to win the Super Bowl.
Which teams have the stars that are such a high usage that if
they do, you're just running away with things?
Yeah. So really for me, some of the
guys that are at prices that I think are pretty attractive
right now, I really like Travis. Etienne, the sentiment on the
Jags is really poor right now. The market is like certain that
the Jags will never win another football game for the history of
forever. Now you know, I don't know if
you've heard, but Trevor Lawrence is, you know, mangled
beyond he. May never walk.
Again, yeah. No, he's never going to.
In fact, I believe that Shad Khan petitioned the NFL to allow
Trevor to play from an electric wheelchair for next week.
So we're seeing if that's gonna work.
But no. In in all seriousness, what I'm
looking for are teams with really high playoff
probabilities, like the Lions and the Jags are basically locks
to make. And now earlier the Lions were
going a little too expensive. Now they've fallen down a little
bit and what I would say with these teams where they're kind
of a long shot to make the conference championship, but
they do have good fantasy players on them, players that
produce points and get lots of opportunities.
I'm just being pretty price sensitive with them and I'm
being intentional with the situations where I'm taking
them. And so guys like Travis, Etienne
or and I don't believe that either of these guys are gonna
make this chart between David Montgomery and Jameer Gibbs.
But those are both the all all three of those are kind of in
the same range ADP wise and they're all guys that I'm I'm
pretty happy to take when they fit my build.
Players that have really strong roles but as of right now I have
no shares of them. So this is this is pretty
important. I would say this is like
probably more alpha than Pat wants me to give away on this
pod. He probably wants to save for
the premium stuff but we're we're gonna give this one away
to the the loyal stat chasing viewers.
So these are players I have 0% of so far, but they have really
good roles. And it's not to say that I'll
never draft him. It's just right now it's not
prudent to do so. So Rashad White?
No Rashad White yet. Javante Williams?
No. Javante Williams yet.
Saquon Barkley? No Saquon Barkley yet?
Probably no Saquon Barkley at all.
Zach Moss, No Zach Mos yet. Let's see.
Bijon Robinson. I do have a Bijon Robinson
share, but I'm really trying to avoid doing that.
There's some situations where the room just puts you in a bad
spot and that's your cleanest path and you gotta go with it.
But that's like a break glass in case of emergency.
And bijon is basically the same thing as Rashad White.
So like the fact that I have a bijon share and I don't have a
white share doesn't mean that I view them differently.
They're like the same probability to make the
playoffs. They're basically the same as
far as fantasy production. Of course, Bijon is like the
better player, but for for our purposes, they are the same
thing. Let's see another Alvin Kamara.
So, So that's kind of an interesting one.
It's really the triumvirate of NFC South teams.
All three NFC South teams that are live for the playoffs have
running backs that you'd be happy to draft.
Like by the time you're at that spot in the draft, you're like
and you need a running back. You're like, God, Alvin Kamara
or Bijan or Rashad White are all looking pretty good right now.
But do I really want to bet on this team making the playoffs?
And I would say that you should pretty much never have that Be
your plan. A.
Don't ever go into a draft, get box out of running back early
and be like it's fine. I'll bail myself out with an NFC
South running back. Like you'll be able to do that
in a week or two weeks when that situation crystallizes without
burning a bunch of dead teams. Now by sprinkling in those
random shares of the ones that don't make the playoffs.
Speaking of teams with not great vibes but strong probability to
make the playoffs and then running backs would sort of
like, OK, Rose, what about Jerome Ford?
Yeah, I'm gonna defer to just comment on the Browns there and
say. Certainly not.
So just my my. Mission is to make you say that
as many times tonight as possible.
You can probably put two and two together, but really, you know
the the reason that I'm not spilling all the alpha here,
like guys, I'm, I'm giving away like everything.
Like I I promise. Like I'm not holding anything
back on. Like if you're in the Discord
channel and you've been talking about playoff basketball, like,
you know, I'm just like, yeah, sure, here's all the advice I
could possibly give you. Like here's everything I know
about this game. Like I'm really not hiding
anything. And if it is something where I'm
like I'm actually going to save that for the leg up Subs, it's
because I'm doing that to try and return value to the people
who are paying a subscription over at leg up.
And so like, I'm for more or less.
I'm an open book, but if you find a thing that I think is
really valuable Alpha that I'm not willing to disclose, you
know I I'm still I'm gonna give it to you in the leg up discord.
So if you're not in the leg up discord, but you remember,
definitely get in there. Like I I've been answering.
Are you trying? Are you trying to make me feel
bad right now? No, no, I'm.
Taking taking food out of the mouths of the leg up Subs.
What I what I want to do is I want all of our ship chasing
members and you know our our loyal patrons to this pod.
I want them to know like I'm not just hanging them out to dry.
Like I'm trying to give away a lot of alpha man.
Like I I'm my my mission is that someone you know wins you know
hopefully multiple tournaments. There's there's people that win
multiple tournaments in these playoff formats from advice that
there or you know things that they were able to glean from
from stuff that I shared. So you know if it can't be me, I
hope that it's someone that I'm able to help.
So but there are there are some things where I want to make sure
that I'm I'm doing right by the Subs at leg up too.
So I just didn't want anyone here feeling like they were
getting the raw end of the deal or I wasn't you know.
Oh Sack's holding all the good stuff back for himself.
Like, I'm not, I promise. Like I'll share it all.
But yeah, come come find me in the Discord or or tune into the
leg up stuff. Fair enough.
Zach wants you to do blank with
the Browns and we move on. So I think I I think that covers
us a little bit from, well Speaking of playoff stuff,
another player with a great role is Tony Pollard.
And I I think I remember you being quite in favor of Pollard.
I think it was the the week before last and I remember us
having a deep a long conversation about it and I
guess with the idea that the Cowboys are they're one of the
the strong favourites to make the Super Bowl.
Pollard has one of the best roles on this chart and and if
you filter if you filter down to just playoff likely teams like
by far one of the strongest roles and then his his ADP is
just is 13 like it it is is this another defer to the leg up
podcast. No, no.
What I'd say is. I'm I'm only I'm only teasing by
the way I I'm I'm I'm using that as a a a metaphor for really
good. But I don't want to say.
Yeah, no. Pollard just checks like all the
boxes that we're looking for in playoff basketball.
Right? Like he's a guy with a strong
role on a team that's a strong favorite to at least, you know
make they're they're locked in for the playoffs.
They've got good probability of making the conference
championship their first round match up looks like it should be
like regardless of how the. Playoffs.
It'll be a shit team. Exactly.
Regardless of what seed the Cowboys get, their first match
up that they play is gonna be an easy one.
So that's that's. Gonna make it even all the more
crushing when they lose. Absolutely, Yeah.
I mean, like this is the season where, as a brief aside into my
Cowboys fandom, I I. Shouldn't have said.
That Yeah, you you have yourself to blame, man.
I gave up on the Cowboys. I'm pretty sure I remember the
date. I want to say it was October
13th. Let's let's just go back and
make sure that's well it. It doesn't really matter.
But I just want to see how how accurate my memory.
OK. And just while you're saying
that about Tony Fowler I think an important part with the with
all with some of the and I've definitely felt some of the
discourse about him having lost a step in being Z2 point O and
and and stuff of that nature. When you really shorten it down
to the small number of games, like that stuff matters so much
less and like you you you really have to to sort of hone in more
on these hard numbers. Which is they're they're they're
sort of playoff probability, the strength of the role and you're
not having to pay for it. Like ADP of 13 is like insane.
Insanely reasonable for that combination.
Yeah so he he just checks a lot of boxes.
He's the kind of player that we're really happy to get on our
teams. You know, you're you're you're
pretty happy to get any of the running backs on the strong
favourites to make the conference championship on your
team and so. But like CMC 101 and then Tony
Pollard, her team like, so like what's that two rounds of
difference or? Yeah, yeah, you you basically
all the way back to the the turn, right the 2-3 turn.
I I will say that I made I I took my draft capital model that
I had made for you know regular season best fall and I adjusted
that and made some tweaks for playoff basketball.
And I will say that the model basically looks at CMC like he
is literally a God like has CMC so high like he is the 101
forever and ever in playoff basketball and and like it's CMC
and then there's 50 feet of crap and then there's the next guy.
So right, yeah, he's a he's. Right.
So it's not, it's not. It's not correct to just to use
him as a as a reference point just because of her rare
Oliver's attributes. Are Yeah.
CMC is just so good in this contest.
You know not only does he is he like the highest fantasy point
projected player, but he's also on the team with the highest
probability of the Super Bowl. Like he Yeah, he's elite.
But I I mean if if you if you look OK, you've looked down the
other way you've got Devon and Chan at pick 19, Swift are at
19.2. I guess that that's another way
of saying how much like it running back sort of tins out
which it it is supportive of the value there?
Yep. Yeah, exactly.
Yeah. Before.
If you don't have a running back early in these contests, you
find yourself, you know, staring down the barrel of a, you know,
Rico Dowdell or an Elijah Mitchell or something like that
at the end of the draft. Or you're you're trying to talk
yourself out of Rashad White or Bijan Robinson because you're
like, Zach told me, not to take these guys yet.
But I don't, I really don't want to just have Elijah Mitchell and
Rico Dowdell as my running backs.
It's like tough shit, man. Like you made your bed, now lie
in it. Right.
Yeah you your your probability is is already low.
If if you if you want, if you want to take Rashad White,
you're lowering the probability to make yourself feel better.
Yeah, exactly. It feels comfier, but you're
you're gonna be probably losing money in the long run playing it
that way. So yeah, not, not too much else
I wanted to focus on here on this chart, but let's go to the
backups chart, because yes, have some guys that are gonna be
relevant for those late rounds in the playoff contest.
You know, you mentioned Devonna Chan.
Obviously he's not a even a late round pick but guys like David
Montgomery can be a real that's that's like a great backstop
where you're like shit, shit, shit, I missed running back or I
need. I've got a running back that's
probably on buy and I need someone.
David Montgomery is like often times one of my break glass in
case of emergency running backs. Where do I think the lines are
going to the Super Bowl? No.
Do I think they can make the conference championship Maybe.
Like we've we've seen this team play good football right?
Like they beat the Chiefs earlier this year.
Somebody just has to get hot. Yeah, they're, they're they're,
you know, kind of backsliding right now.
And they're they're back to their old Lions bullshit,
honestly. Like they're they're just doing
the silly Lions things like running the ball way too much.
Not involving their best weapons just, you know, being being.
But we we know that they can win.
And so a guy like David Montgomery can be really
valuable in this contest. I got a gross one for you.
You want? OK, here's here's a gross one
that you have my blessing to draft you You ready for this
one? OK.
Ty Chandler. So Ty Chandler in in in playoff
best ball. So you're real.
Well, 'cause like I was gonna say you're you're you're really
hoping for the the injury to Alexander Madison to sort of
drag on and but there's also and and and it's a it's a small
doubt I think this is a small doubt where during his injury
even if Madison returns during the playoffs that what's his how
do I forget Ty Chandler is playing so well that they just
they just say to Madison now we're good.
Exactly. I I think though that that he he
really has to play very well now he he's been he's been playing
good for sure but I I think you have to see some like pretty
spectacular stuff for them to to just because they they it
shouldn't be a surprise for them if he if he plays very well
because he has been and or but you know maybe maybe it will be
I guess all all I'm saying is so like I don't recognize that for
sort of like one of the possible outcomes rather than like an an
inevitability. Right.
Yeah. This is not me telling you to go
load your bags up with Ty Chandler.
This is rather me saying that Ty Chandler is probably a better
pick at this point right now, this week, with the
probabilities that we have then Rashad White or Bichon Robinson
or Alvin Kamara, just because you know.
Right. Let's just say you went drafting
your portfolio and you always have found your spot yourself in
a bad spot where you needed one of those late NFC South running
backs and you drafted them at random, you know, and you end up
with an even distribution of all of them.
Well, that means about 66% of your teams are going to be dead
because you took the wrong running back on two out of three
of them, whereas Ty Chandler is like north of 70% to make the
playoffs. Yeah, sure, there are times
where Ty Chandler doesn't end up giving you enough in the actual
playoffs to to do anything for you, but it it's still a better
bet than the NFC South running back.
So other. Guys on this chart and and
especially with how late he's going and.
Yeah, he's free. He's undrafted.
So like at at that spot you you like somewhere between 5:00 and
10:00. It's.
It's not what you want, but it's fine.
Right. It's yeah, it's not the not the
end of the world if you get stuck with Ty Chandler it's one
of your running backs. But there's lots of guys on this
chart that are guys that I'm interested in for for playoff
basketball, like Jared McKinnon all of a sudden becomes
interesting. You know maybe we get maybe we
get playoff jet again and he he does the McKinnon things or he's
catching you know little shovel passes for touchdowns and Pat
Mahomes is doing the backyard football stuff and I'm God knows
the Chiefs need weapons right and right.
Would it would it be the most surprising thing to you if we
get to the playoffs and all of a sudden Jarek McKinnon has his
same role that he had when he? Was helping me 00 Shock, right?
Zero. The Chiefs already did this.
They already showed us like Jarek McKinnon is old.
We need him to have fresh legs, like he's so close to Dusty that
last year we saved him the whole season and he's still got dead
legs like halfway through the playoffs.
So they're like we got an extra saving this year.
And so I. And then they come to the
playoffs. They're like, yeah, who's, who's
Pacheco? They're like, oh, thanks for
being a battering ram all year. Now now now you can you can take
a rest. And and what I think is going to
happen is I think that Pacheco's still going to be the the
running back one on the team. But I think that McKinnon can
certainly cut in and and get a little more work that he has
seen and he can get those high value touches.
And the later you progress in these playoff contests, the more
valuable low scores become, You know, because the scoring, what
you need to beat relatively goes down because people have less
active players on their roster. And when you get into the Super
Bowl, if it's Chiefs. More than 0 is good.
More than zero is fantastic, right?
So that's why guys like Jarek McKinnon are interesting.
Even even guys like Kenneth Gainwell are interesting.
I'll, I'll tell you, if the Bills keep winning, I'm gonna
have a Latavius Murray share or two.
I'm gonna do it. And Gross speaking.
Of gross plays on on high probability playoff teams when
any interest in in any of the the Ravens guys.
Oh yeah, interest in both of the Ravens guys and twice on Sunday
I've even I have a Justice Hill share already.
So the Ravens are so good that any piece on the Ravens is
valuable and and that's something people have trouble
wrapping their head around like they want to take the player.
Like when you get to the last round and you're staring down
like Justice Hill versus Bijon Robinson, like no one wants to
click Justice Hill. But I'll tell you, Justice Hill
is probably right about the same level of value as Bijon Robinson
right now. And if you're playing for a
scenario where the Ravens make the Super Bowl, he's a lot more
valuable. So it's just it's rewiring your
brain to think about the game in the correct way.
It's it's totally different than other fantasy formats that, you
know, the skill of the players and their fantasy production
means so much less than it normally does.
So yeah, both Ravens backs are very interesting, but I believe
on this backup chart that those all, all the ones that we've
touched on now are the ones that I'm interested in.
So you you you said you said boat Ravens backs are are are
are you excluding one of Hill and and Keaton Mitchell and Gus
Edwards. Yeah, normally I'm excluding
Hill. I'm taking Keaton Mitchell and
Gus Edwards on the majority of my Ravens teams.
If I am in a situation where I really need another running back
and I have a bet where it makes sense for Justice Hill, he's one
where I would be willing to mix in it.
I'm not going to have a lot. I literally might have one team
or two teams with Justice Hill, but it's like he's a Raven, so
the Ravens should get. Drafted.
And same same thing with the 49ers, like Eli Mitchell, done
nothing all season. Guess what?
He is a 49er, so he is now draftable.
Right. Or or if you you mentioned
Kenneth Gainwell, well, Kenneth Gainwell feels like super
similar to Justice Hill. Yeah, yeah.
Same like name Brown, Justice Hill.
Yep, exactly. And nobody else here.
And we're talking about, well, I I guess maybe it's worth diving
into like Echan what he did. It seemed like he played he
actually Echan played a lot more this week than than last week.
So let me just confirm that that's the case.
So Devanah Chan in week 14, so he played 29 snaps and so he I
guess he only even Monday night he only played 42% snaps.
Yeah, what I will. What I'll say about a Chan's
usage is he played about the same percentage of snaps, but
when the snaps came was different, right?
In the previous week all of his work came when the game was out
of hand. They rested Mostert and it was
kind of like AI think Gretsch called it extended pre season
for Devonna Chant right Just kick the tires, make sure
everything feels good, get you some work you know get get you
back in game shape and get ready for the playoff push here.
And then in the game that mattered last night he was
getting work all through the game.
You know they they actually what was really interesting to me is
the Tyree kill role was occupied by a Chan and a mixture of
Barrios and Cedric Wilson. It was like, we can't.
It was it was the most Moneyball thing I I've ever seen is like,
well, we can't you know, have anyone step in as a one for one
replacement for Tyree kill. But we can recreate them in the
aggregate. So a Chan you're the fast Tyree
kill and Barrios you're Jet sweeping Gadgety, Tyree Kill and
Cedric Wilson, you're downfield Tyree Kill.
And with your powers combined, you're all 70 ish percent Tyree
Kill. Yeah.
Worthless. Yeah, I mean, but.
I'm I'm looking at even even with that low snap.
Sure his expected points was he had 18 expected points.
Now he like he's orbitry in playoff basketball and so not
really talking to the market there.
But I know I've definitely heard like sentiment as like hey why
why is H Chan's projection so high Why do people like him so
much? Like even though he's he's not
he's that he's not the starting running back.
But he it's it does seem like he's got like a particular role
now and it's it's I guess especially with Tyrique out that
like it's it's not even right to call it a I'm not I'm not sure
what I'm trying to say it's it's it's it's.
It's, yeah, it's different. It's an unusual role, but it
still scores points. Yeah, it's the most efficient
rushing offense in the league, right?
And they it's it's honestly very similar to the San Francisco
system. And and so you've seen this
before with backs like Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.
Like you can have two guys that do you know really well in that
offense. They both can be viable fantasy
assets. And then it just so happens that
you have such an electric offense that scores so many
points. And really, I mean as a an aside
about what Tyree Kill does for this offense, gosh, the the
contrast between the Dolphins with him on the field and
without was pretty stark. I mean, I I know that it's it's
a long shot for Tyreek to actually win MVP, but I feel
like last night was the best case you could have that Tyreek
is the MVP in the league. Because you saw that Dolphins
team go from like absolute nightmare for a defensive
coordinator to deal with to, you know, they were they looked very
mortal without Tyreek on the field.
So yeah, you know my my two cents is Tyree kills the MVP
which you know feel it feels weird to like stand Tyreek
because I have so much Tyreek exposure.
He's like in my opinion clear the MVP.
I also think he's like probably still a pretty garbage person
like he's done some really awful stuff.
But so it feels very weird to stand Tyree kill.
But I'm. I'm trying to separate who he is
as a person and who he is as a football player.
Because there's lots of guys that you know in the league,
past, present and I'm I'm sure future that are going to be
great athletes do great stuff on the field and they might, they
might not be the most, might not be the best examples of what we
should look up to off the field. But regardless, he has an
enormous impact for his team. Yeah and that's definitely
notable and and we're at speaking about through the lands
of fantasy football it's it's honestly one of the it's a worry
for me with some of my I I've obviously had heavy Dolphins
stacks and exposure it it is a worry for me that if if if they
can't figure out the Tyreek stuff that like it could be that
the Dolphins offensive stacks go from like high advance rates to
the play offs that are just like landmines in the play offs.
Yeah, what? I'll what I'll say to that and
you can, you can move us on to the next chart while I finish
this point here, 'cause I know we've taken a little while to
get through these so far. But what I think is going to
happen next week is regardless of if Tyreke is active or
inactive, this Dolphin's offense is going to look a lot better
than they did without him on Monday night.
And that's because Mike McDaniel is a good coach and he will have
time to come up with a plan. The the fact that they were
operating off of a game plan where they, you know, of course
you're game planning around Tyreek every week.
Like that's your best player you you could be game planning
around him. And so when he's out, all of a
sudden you're trying to adjust on the fly.
Now they have an entire week where they've got an expectation
of is he going to be active for the game?
If he is active, how many snaps can we realistically use him
for? And then like I mentioned, you
know, we saw a Chan kind of get some of that Tyreek kill work,
you know, running raps out of the backfield or doing some of
the the jet sweeper gadgety type stuff where I would anticipate a
Chan taking even more of that on.
They'll probably use a lot of a Chan and most of it on the field
at the same time and and have a Chan and some of that Tyree kill
roll and then they'll have you know a a smarter way to deploy
those receivers of barrios and cetera.
Cause one of the things about the dolphins, too, is that
they're like very, very fast. So like, there's other parts to
Tyreek's game that they just can't replicate and and and
replace. But it's like I I I do have
confident confidence that they're going to have very fast
players on that on that field. And Mike and Daniels is going to
find a smart way to, like, take advantage of that.
Yeah. So we're we're on our running
back efficiency chart here and you know if you're just now
joining us in you know week 14, I don't know how you got here if
you weren't here earlier but I'll I'll give you the breakdown
for what this part is, is showing us here.
The X axis is the expected fantasy points for a player
based on their opportunities and where they come on the field for
rushing. And the Y axis is their expected
fantasy points for receiving. And so then where their dot is
located on the chart is going to be in these little diagonal kind
of tiers or or bands of expected fantasy points total for the
week. So for example we see Kyron
Williams here with 20 or more expected fantasy points here.
Absolutely elite role. He is in the Todd Gurley role
and he is wearing it well. Kyron Williams is like, if we
had to redraft right now for the final three weeks for the
fantasy playoffs, I think Kyron Williams is probably a top three
running back right? Like it's just the role is
elite. Elite and he's doing well with
it and and it's so much of it comes from the passing game too
that it's just it's a guy that can't get game scripted out.
It's a guy with a really strong floor and an incredible ceiling.
So yeah, like Kyron's incredible now for playoff best ball.
It's not a guy I'm touching right now.
The Rams are too low a probability to make the
playoffs. And in the event they do make
the playoffs as they are rising, their cost in ADP is not going
to rise enough or I'm punished for not having Kyron Williams
earlier. So that's a guy I'm willing to
wait and see on. I mean other there.
There's not a ton of takeaways that we're going to give you
here that you don't already know.
Like you know that you're locking CMC in every week.
I guess we can touch on Zach Moss here for people that might
be having start set decisions with Zach Moss in the playoffs,
because for my eyes, he's turned back into a pumpkin.
He looks much more like the Zach Moss of the Buffalo Bills than
he did the Zach Moss of the early season Indianapolis Colts
here, and I don't know exactly why that is.
It's probably you know a confluence of factors.
I I would say his legs probably aren't as fresh now.
You know he he got beat up a little bit over the season and
he's wearing the the workload of an NFL season on him now and
that that certainly could be it. It also could be he's just he's
just playing out of his mind early that he he knew he had an
opportunity. He only had one shot.
He didn't want to miss his chance to blow and he balled out
for a little bit, but the role is still really good.
But dude is not been efficient with a role like he was earlier
in the season. So, Draco, do you think that
what we've seen from Zach Moss lately is the new normal or do
you think that the pendulum will swing back towards the middle
and we'll get something in between what we saw early season
versus the last two weeks, I think?
While Taylor is out Zach Moss is in the Rashad White tier of like
strong role. Not a great player and will will
will be some volatility there because like Rashad White has
had this role all season but his start to the year was like
awful. It was terrible and so I I think
those are just games that you have to expect to be in the
range of outcomes for players in that tier and and so if if if it
it it gets more interesting like I think that probably the most
interesting start to decision might be like Zach Moss or
Kenneth Walker and like it's like that that's that's probably
where it's it's it's sort of tricky because Kent Walker is
like it is really good but then you you you never know when when
his like his what what's gonna happen with his role and all
that sort of stuff yeah but I think anybody anybody better
than and then Kenneth Walker you're you're you're start
you're without any questions starting Zack Moss but anybody
worse like I'm I'm starting Zack Moss over Chuba Hubbard right
like over sorry. Yeah, I think so.
Chuba's role is pretty good too, though.
Chuba's also in the Rashad White role now right there, I think.
I think all three of those guys are kind of right.
That's fair. I I do have a couple that I
thought were good like start sits and and the way I think is
going to be the most helpful for people is rather than giving
them a start sit for this specific week with you know
respect to the match up that they're going to be in.
Let's just kind of do it. Match up.
Agnostic. So, like, you know things will
change. Matchups are different.
Injuries happen. You know stuff's gonna change
over the course of this fantasy playoffs.
But just in a vacuum, you want Zach Moss or do you want James
Cook? James Cook Jaylen Warren sorry,
just by the way Jaylen Warren that that's that's what I meant
to say and. Gotcha, gotcha and.
But let's let's keep going. Zach Moss or Javonte Williams?
And I I think, I think that's sort of like a it is, yeah, it's
Juvanto. It is Juvanto.
I yeah, I think that's a really close one, right, 'cause it's
like the the Moss role seems like a little more secure.
Like Juvanto's role is, is growing and looks really good,
and he seems like the better player with more talent and
upside. But Moss, we feel like a little
bit more confident in projecting volume for him.
So I think it's tricky. But I I do agree it would be
Javonta for me as well, yeah. I I agree with you there.
Here's a Here's AI. Don't know this one's
particularly close, but I I guess worth it.
Might be a decision people have to make, AJ Dillon or Zach Moss.
And Zach Moss. Yeah, AJ Dillon has looked a
little better lately, but I I do agree with Zach Moss.
It's like he he he would he he he won't have the role to be in
the he's played himself out of like any chance really of being
in the Zach Miles role. Here's a Here's an interesting
one. Now granted, we saw this guy get
back to his usual check down magnet ways last week, Austin
Eckler, but he's also losing work now to Joshua Kelly and
Isaiah Spiller. Austin Eckler, Zack Moss.
Jeez. How stupid is this game by the
way? Like if you ask if I asked you
this on August 1st of this year, you'd tell me to get the fuck
out of here. Austin.
Zack Moss. Yeah, I I think, I think that
would would Herbert out. I think that those push it in
into Zach Moss. It's so gross.
I think it's pretty close. I God the Charger.
The Chargers look so, so bad to me though.
Like. That's, that's what I'm saying.
The The craziest thing to me is a lot of people, and myself
included, I won't, you know, hand up I I thought that Kellen
Moore would do a lot to help the Chargers offense.
It turns out now as a as a die hard Cowboys fan, there were
lots of things that I didn't like that Kellen Moore did last
year. There were lots of there is
stuff where it's like dude, what what is this play?
Like what are we doing here? Or like wow that was some really
cute Boise State gadgety bullshit.
I bet that looks really good when you're playing against
future Safeway bag boys but this does not work in the NFL.
But of course, the Cowboys offense is like #1 in points
while he was the offensive coordinator, so I I thought that
he was at least like, pretty good with the Chargers.
I don't know that that's the case.
Like it is Kellen Moore a fraud. I know we're like, way off the
rails here, but like Kellen Moore fraud territory, 'cause he
was like getting potential. Like this guy could become a
head coach candidate if he looks good with the Chargers, right?
Like that was for sure in the rumor mill during the summer.
Yeah, and I I I don't, I don't, I don't want to like snap to a
judgement. Now I know we've had almost a
full season and maybe some, maybe some other factors
involved. Like they have had injuries and
like with those injuries, like Quinton Johnson has become like
forcibly a key part of the offense.
Like they did not want to make Quinton Johnson a key part of
the offense, and they say they simply have no choice.
Which is a an entirely different problem when your first round
rookie wide receiver that you took a ahead of multiple other
great rookie wide receivers that we're seeing ball out in their
first year. When it's a problem that you
have to involve your first round rookie wide receiver, there's
something wrong with this you. May have a yeah, you may.
You're you're there may be some dysfunction within your team.
Yeah, there's there's a. Lot and and that was my next one
I I I do wonder if like it's some some of the issues that
Callum Murray's having is like from the systemic from like the
head coach because I I I don't wanna say he's bad but when when
you have these frustrations build up and like the with him
happen to like being forced to go from like very aggressive to
like just a a standard boomer coach and it it there to me that
is some indication there that like he's not a he's not a a
strong coach where he he's like respected and and and just gets
to do what he wants or or or gets to call let's to command
things and so I I I wonder if that could be like a yeah and an
obstacle for callummer to work true.
And. I think it's certainly true that
what of of Callummer's success in Dallas, you you have to
assign a good portion of it to Kevin McCarty like that we
weren't aware of before, like that's new information.
Yeah, and it's it's so hard to for us to evaluate these NFL
coaches from the outside looking in.
But one thing that I'll say is we should pay attention to when
these guys tell on themselves, when when they make a decision
that we know is a really bad decision.
There's lots of stuff where we might not have all the details
or we don't understand, You know, we get frustrated when
players that we really like or we're excited about for fantasy
aren't being used as much as we want, right?
Everyone wants more Jackson, Smith and Jigba.
You know why is it getting more carries right?
But there are times where a coach will make a decision that
is demonstrably bad and that's like the 4th down calls exact.
That's exactly what I'm getting too.
And and so when a coach tells on themselves like that when
they're doing something that like any good Madden player like
if you were playing Madden competitively online and like no
one is making that mistake and if they do like you're getting
laughed at over an Xbox headset like then it's that's that's a
good enough when the. 7 year old is calling you stupid.
Yeah, it's a good enough context clue that this guy, these
coaches that make those types of mistakes, don't know what
they're doing at at the very least on like a macro level.
And you know, this is a tough league and so if you don't have,
if you don't have it on a macro level, it doesn't really matter
if you know you're good on the micro or or vice versa, Like you
gotta gotta be able to put it all together.
But anyway, that's enough. Just to make that like, usable
if if the Chargers coaching staff is in place next year,
like is it an AT coaching staff where we just have to like
severely dock players or is it like one of those sort of D
coaching Staffs where it's it's not ideal, but we'll work with
it. I think it's closer to D because
we've seen elite production from Keenan.
We, you know, we, I think Eckler still would approve it without
IA. And if you hear my question, I
was like do we fade Canaan Island next year like that that
that would be silly and that would I I I I guess maybe I
don't know does that even impact like some of the like secondary
pieces I. I yeah, I I think actually as I
think through this a good way to play that in best ball is be
happy to take one or two of those players but be more
hesitant to take deep team stacks on teams like that.
So like for example if Arthur Smith is still with the Falcons
and of course this is all gonna be price sensitive, right?
Like we we don't know what the prices are gonna be but like if
Arthur Smith is still with the Falcons I'm way less excited to
take like a Falcon's team stack. Then like I might get one or two
Falcons pieces at a good price And so you know same thing with
the Chargers if it's still Staley there I'm I'm much less
excited to take a full Chargers team stack.
I might take a, you know, one or two pieces, but getting the
full, you know, four or five player team stack is something I
want to do less of on those coaching Staffs that I think are
are really bad and it's got to be at the absolute extremes,
right, 'cause these coaches, they're not on the field.
Like Brandon Staley is not out there taking snaps for the
Chargers or running routes or anything.
Like the impact he has is relatively small.
Although you know, it's fun to blame these guys for stuff, but
when they are at the extremes like Arthur Smith or Brandon
Staley, you know, I I do think that it's worth baking that in a
little bit to our decisions. But that's enough of coach
chasing here. Let's move on to our next
running back efficiency chart. Oh.
My God. We're, yeah, we're really, we're
slogging through this today. We're we're like all the way off
there. So it's the same, the same
charts the. Last one.
The only difference why there are two charts is because
there's too many running backs to evaluate for their efficiency
to have them all on one chart it would get too crowded.
So I just split them up by rank and so I order every running
back based on their total expected fantasy points.
And then I go down the list and odd numbered running backs in
ranks go on one chart and even numbered running backs in rank
go on the other chart. So here we see this is the evens
chart and so we've got a bunch of guys that are just almost to
that 20 expected fantasy points threshold.
Couple of the guys that we talked about actually for, you
know, running backs that are, they're the the sirens of the
playoff best ball running backs. They're they're calling you to
come draft their attractive expected fantasy points hoping
to get you to dash your playoff basketball roster upon their
rocks. And Bijon Robinson, Alvin Kamara
and Rashad White all sitting there with great expected
fantasy point roles. But again, if you drafted these
guys at random and had an equal amount of all of them, 66% of
your teams are going to be dead. That's not a good bet that we
want to make. We want to wait for a little
more clarity and then then we can happily pile it.
You know, if the Saints make the playoffs, we can happily load up
on some Alvin Kamara on the teams, or we need a little extra
running back firepower. Light, right?
But he's not going to shoot up. Alvin Kamara is not going to be
like a sixth round pick or anything, you know.
And so, and one thing that's sort of like it, it jumps out to
me how small the Charbonnet bubble is.
And and it also seems notable to me not Kent Walker he was back
up to a 60% snap share in in week 14.
And so it it is that like a sort of like yo, a little bit of a
yo-yo situation developing there where they didn't they wanted to
see what get Charbonnet involved see what he had to offer.
But if he hasn't played well, even if there's like
limitations, limitations to kind of Walker where there's some
frustrations, what what he offers it is, is something
that's good enough to relegate Charbonnet more more than
before. Yeah, I I would say what I think
it'll trend towards as we go through the fantasy play offs is
Kenneth Walker getting more and more role.
I don't think Chardonnay will go away.
I think you're always gonna have Charbonnet working in there,
right. And So what that does for me, as
far as how I'm viewing these guys is Chardonnay is not really
startable most likely, you know, unless you get Kenneth Walker
now and then. As far as Kenneth Walker's
concerned, I've got him pretty low on the totem pole as far as
like running backs that I'd want to start him over.
Just because the way that Kenneth Walker, you know,
butters his bread for fantasy is he hits a home run, right?
And and he's not doing it at such a high rate.
He's not like a Divana Chan, where it's like this guy touches
the ball 10 times. You just put it in his
projection. Yeah, 2.
Two of them are breakaway touchdowns, right?
Kenneth Walker is like, he touches the ball 15 times, and
in some games, 15 touches was enough for him to rip off a huge
touchdown run. And in other games that was 15
for 43 yards, right? And so for me, it's like Kenneth
Walker is like I'm I'm certainly starting him over Samaj P Ryan.
But like I'm definitely not starting him over David
Montgomery. You know here's, here's an
interesting one. We've got a lot of ambiguity
with the Ravens Backfield, Gus Edwards, Keaton Mitchell,
Kenneth Walker. Out of those three, pretend you
have to pick one that that those are your 3 running backs you're
choosing to start for your last running back spot in the
playoffs here. Which of those three are you
starting in a vacuum? And and like a regular playoff
or fantasy Football Playoff. Yeah, so you're like in a FFPC
main event or something, or you're in a home league and and
I mean. You're starting you're I, I
think you're starting kind of Walker over to Ravens guys like
with with to me 0 hesitation. OK.
And I know you want a better key.
What's that? You want a grosser 1.
OK. Ezekiel Elliott or Kenneth
Walker? And I think, I think I'm
starting Kenneth Walker over the over the, the, the Zeke stuff.
God, the workload is just so good though.
I don't know. The workload is good.
He's gonna get targets. If they get to go line he it's
it's gonna be Zeke and I I just think I just think that with
with Kent Walker's work roll with that sort of trending up
and and like I know he has those things where like it it if he's
not breaking off huge runs you're not getting on off a lot.
But Kenneth Walker is really really good at the part of the
game that he's really good at and like when it hits like that
translates really well to fantasy football.
Like I remember at the start of the year, Kenneth Walker was was
a great, great fantasy producer and if we can get closer to that
sort of workload that he was having and like I I I would
still prefer him over Zeke. Yeah, that's a it's AI think
that's a good point and it's good to remind ourselves, like,
hey, you know, work workload matters so much for running
backs, but talent does still matter to an extent.
It's just it's bad vibes on the Seahawks.
Not that it's not bad vibes on the Patriots.
It's just the role. The role for Zeke is so
attractive. But.
Yeah. I think that was good to to talk
through to give some people some, some clarity there.
If they're because Kenneth Walker feels tough to start
right now, you know if you have options that are closed,
definitely feels a little scary. Right.
You don't. You don't feel comfy starting
Kenneth Walker by by by any means.
And if you have someone, well, I know he has the role and I I I I
still think that the upside helps you quite a bit there with
with Walker. One guy that I want to list.
Sorry. Yeah just that the the the the
snap share that he's getting now is better than is is a good bit
better than the snap share he was getting just before the
injury when when he he wasn't scoring much at all.
So like I I like I I think, I think it it does seem to me that
we're getting like I think it's important that it seems like
we're getting closer to the work row at the start of the year
than the pre entry at work row. Yeah, one one guy that I want to
list as an honorable mention who does not did not get enough
expected fantasy points yet to crack onto these charts.
But I would, I I would just say to keep an eye on this guy.
You know, if you're in a home league and he's still somehow on
your waivers, this is probably going to be a a waiver priority
this week. But I think the secret's out on
Chase Brown. I don't know how the Bengals
didn't know this about Chase Brown earlier in the season.
That's one of the most frustrating things to me as a
fantasy player is sometimes we find these guys that we think
you know, their prospect profile is so good and we evaluate them
as this should be. A player that immediately is
going to have a role on a team. Because you've got a running
back that is aging out. And you know they'd certainly be
wise to get themselves away from Joe Mixon.
Just with, you know, his contract and and you know he's
on the the wrong side of the AJ Apex, it made all the sense in
the world to see what they had in Chase Brown.
And it really just seems like the Bengals were playing scared
with Chase Brown earlier in the season.
They wanted to really play it safe and stick with the devil
they know. And Joe Mixon, while Joe Burrow
was healthy and while they they thought they had a, you know,
good look at the playoffs. And then now that Burrows out
and it's the Browning Show, they're willing to give Brown a
little bit of a look and what do you know, the guy can ball.
And so yeah, he he doesn't crack onto these charts just yet.
But if he's on your waivers, he's definitely an exciting ad
for this playoff stretch. He looks electric.
I I hope that his price stays depressed next year in, you
know, way too early. Best ball so I can load up
'cause that's that's my that's like my Jalen Warren for next
year. I'm going to call my shot right
now on Chase Brown. That's like the Jalen Warren of
next year. If and if you look at the last
game it does start getting like really interesting because with
these guys who have the the like the low snap share or low snap
count and then electric and production with like a low touch
count. One thing, one thing that seems
to those seems to be important is are they just on the ball or
sorry are they just on the field 7 times and they get the ball 6
or do the coaches like trust them to like be on the field if
they're not getting the ball and told run this way.
And you know Chase Brown, he did get like a pass blocking snap.
He did get, he got 8 routes in that game.
So that that that to me is like evidence of like them trusting
him more than like a get on the field to get the ball off the
field guy. That's that is a great shout out
Draco. I think that is super valuable
info to have and really strong signal for.
There is something a little could be a little sticky here
with Chase Brown there. It's it's not just like it's not
like a a deuce Vaughn type of thing where it's like this'll be
fun. Let's let's give this electric
guy a couple touches and like all right go go back on the
sideline deuce like good job. That was really fun.
The fans love ya. No, it's like we need to we need
to figure out exactly what Chase Brown is and I would not be
surprised at all if we see you know the home stretch here of
this season is prime. Let's figure out what Chase
Brown is territory for the Bengals.
And then, you know, as a as an extension.
Dear God, I hope that the Saints do the same thing with Kendra
Miller. Please, please bail out my Henry
Miller bags. I mean, bailing is so bad.
Yeah, but I I. I do think it's important to
like understand the distinction between them being asked to do a
role on the offense that isn't just them getting the ball.
Like 'cause like the idea that the coach is trusting them to
act like an adult and like, perform a responsibility that
isn't being involved. Carrier, it it it it is
important. It's really important for them
getting their roles wrapped up. 100%, all right.
We've been, we've been lollygagging.
We've been having a lot of fun, just kind of chopping it up,
going into all kinds of fun topics.
But let's move on to our tight end utilization chart here.
So this this tight end chart is just showing the percentage of
team drop backs on the X axis. The green bar is showing the
routes that the tight end ran. And then the red bar or salmon
colored bar if you will is the blocking, the pass blocking that
the the tight end did in their percentage of the team drop
back. So we're not a huge fan of the
pass blocking. We definitely prefer the route
running and then over on the left hand side we have some
nifty stats to help us evaluate how valuable those routes really
are. And those are a dot and targets
per route run. So you can think of targets per
route run as how frequently are these guys actually getting the
ball when they do run routes and then a dot is and how valuable
are those targets when they're getting them.
So it's all kind of a function that works together and it's you
know, it's nice to see Travis Kelsey back on top.
You know you you got to be happy for the guy he he was kind of
hanging out a little lower in the chart for a while.
And again, I don't think I clarified this on the running
back charts earlier, but for running back and tight end
charts, we do a four week rolling average because roles
can change for those positions as the season goes on.
And so we want to look at what's happening recently to try and
pick up on any signal or trends that are worth noting.
I think what's interesting with a Kelsey thing up the top there
and when whereas he was much lower, so that's got to be a
sign that they see him as a fully healthy now, right?
I I agree. And that's it's interesting to
me, 'cause I thought he was not like just last week.
He looked not healthy to me and and so I I wonder if it's it it,
it might be the kind of thing 'cause it was an ankle for him,
right, that was giving him problems.
It might be the kind of thing where the pain isn't bothering
him anymore. He's able to do a full workload,
but he's just he's lacking a little bit of like the cutting
and like and that might be what the issue is.
So he might be like healthy enough that it's not bugging
him, but not full strength, right?
And so, but at tight end, you can kind of get away with that a
little bit more right than like when when we see Tyree Hill
unable to cut, it's like, oh man, I mean he's still fast.
He goes straight line very fast. But like, like we saw in after
he came back in the game, like he ran his route and then he
wasn't like trying to Juke guys out after the catch and go for
the house call. It was like let me get out of
bounds because I do not want to get tackled right now.
Like my ankle is killing. So good.
Good call on Kelsey's health there, man.
The Evan Ingram. I gotta I gotta talk about Evan
Ingram a little bit for anyone that followed the dog bowl
stuff. And if you saw on the stream,
Pete was was talking to me and I I said the only change I made to
projections all week. So I aggregated ETR projections
with a couple other sources and did my own little flavor on some
value above replacement stuff that I do to build my rankings
out. I typically am not going to
touch the projections unless I really have a spot that I am
very confident that they're not. Correct and only note I had for
every single player on the whole slate was Boost Evan Ingram and
damn if that was not very prescient.
I I wish that I had had the stones to get to Evan Ingram
there, but it just didn't didn't work out for where I was
drafting. But the reason I bring that up
is not to highlight how much of A crystal ball I had, but to
highlight how predictable Evan Ingram blow up games are.
Because this is not the first Evan Ingram blow up spot that
we've identified. You know, when he was playing
against the Steelers with a really strong pass rush and it
was looking like it was going to be a bad weather game.
We identified Evan Ingram there as well as this looks like the
short A dot quick outlet that they're going to use to try and
beat that pass rush and you know, not have to worry about
completing longer difficult passes in bad weather.
And that was the reason why I was excited for Evan Ingram
again this week. With Christian Kirk out, not
operating in that short area of the field, and with them going
up against a very formidable Browns pass rush and really good
Browns pass defense, I I thought that Evan Ingram again was going
to be the skeleton key for how the Jags had to move the ball
down the field against them. And so when you get players like
this where you can identify the Smashbox beforehand, it's
extremely valuable. And it it's, it's not to say
that every single time we identify Evan Ingram as a Smash,
he's Smash. But it is to say that this is
something that we can predict with a lot more confidence than
some other players, right? And so for me personally, I'm
going to be looking at Jag spots as we go through the season.
And if they're ever in a situation where I think they
need that low A dot guy or they're up against a formidable
pass rush, I'm. I'm lock buttoning Evan Ingram.
You know, like I didn't play anything on DraftKings this week
because I was really focusing on the dog bowl.
But if I had, I definitely would have been rolling Evan Ingram as
my tight end, you know, probably would have done a lot of Lamar
stacks. I was high on that too.
And you know, hindsight being 2020, darn, I wish I had played
some on DraftKings this week because those were two of the
nut pieces. So, but yeah, I I just wanted to
highlight that because when you get a guy that's that
predictable with those kinds of so.
Evan Ingram in spots where the Jacksonville have a a a password
mismatch against him. Yep, 100.
Percent because that that's what he does the best.
Yeah. And then moving on from Evan
Ingram, other guys that I think are worth the I I don't want to
do them with as much confidence as I would Evan Ingram.
And for this next guy I think it's even a little bit different
just cause the quarterback situation's different and like
he he's running deeper routes recently.
But David and Joku his A dot I believe has actually come up a
little bit which I know sounds funny.
He's at 4.1 and like yeah, his A dot's up.
It's like, but no, Joku is like getting absolutely no air yards
earlier. But this last week he did get a
deeper pass from Flacco but he does.
He is a lower A dot guy and in the past I had, I had tried to
do the same thing with Njoku that I did with Ingram.
When you know when the Browns need to do those quick hitters
and you know blitz beater type plays, maybe some more tight end
screens, I'm looking at that for a Joku.
But I would say Ingram is the the guy that I have the highest
degree of confidence for that specific type of match up
exploitation. Yeah, he he, his air yards are
definitely up. Like if I look at week 11
through 14 and he had, he averaged 54 air yards, he came
and then if I look before that it was 17 air yards a game.
So obviously that that's that's not a dot and but I I I think
there's something to that where he's like he's getting targeted
down the field. Yeah.
And it's, I think it's a function of Joe Flacco more than
anything. So here's what I would think
too. I've got I've got a guy here
that I need your opinion on because I think it's pretty
relevant for playoff basketball. So we talked about that.
I have recently allowed the Bills to be back on the menu for
me for playoff basketball. Wasn't drafting a blast week
after the upset. I'm drafting him now.
So Dalton Kincaid goes right around Gabe Davis, they go very
close to each other in ADP. You also have some Bills players
that go undrafted like Khalil Shakur, right, Or Deontay Hardy.
Are you taking Dalton Kincaid over Gabe Davis or it's a team
where you've got the. I don't think I'm ever doing
these as a one off by the way. There's no way in hell you're
getting me to draft Bills without Josh Allen.
I'm. I'm only drafting the Bills
because it was a spot where Josh Allen made sense.
And then when that plays out I benefit disproportionately
because like sick I got a quarterback the caliber of Josh
Allen for fantasy and and now I got them in a situation where
it's actually worthwhile for the Bills.
I don't really ever care to have like a Dalton Kincaid one off,
right? So just for for people to know,
it's it's only with Josh Allen, but on those Josh Allen teams,
are you doing some Kincaid, some Gabe Davis?
Are you mixing and matching? Are you strongly preferring one
over the other? What do you think there?
And I I I think it's sort of like a a little bit of a toss up
like it. It's obviously early in
Kincaid's career but it does seem clear that his he he he's
not sort of like a high high. He doesn't have the the sort of
upside the points upside that Gabe Davis would have where like
he can get like 8 targets and I don't know 80 yards and and and
and and and that can be a good game And then Gabe Davis will
have games where he just he just doesn't have a catch but then
he'll have games where he catches 2 long bombs and and and
and you need him to win all the money and it it that that that's
honestly something that's difficult for me to parse
through for I I don't I don't have I don't have the the
experience with best best best ball to really answer that and I
don't think but what what I would say is like when you have
a player like Josh Allen one of the best ways to play Josh Allen
is like having multiple cheap guys because he's like the the
quarterback who who can get those sort of non digs pieces
into huge days and and and they can both be players that you
absolutely need. So I don't know if that helps
anyone. Yeah, no, I I I think that was a
a good analysis there. So I I think in summary, it's
fair to say that you'd probably mix and match them.
You're not always taking one over the other, you're mix and
matching. Sometimes you might end up with
both if it's a build where you need multiple.
But as far as other tight end actual information that we have
for people, I think Jake Ferguson's a really, really
interesting piece for playoff basketball.
You're more, you care so much about the team in playoff
basketball. So like he's a Cowboy and he
gets targets and he also gets in zone targets like if the Cowboys
make the conference championship or the Super Bowl that's
tremendously valuable. Like he doesn't need to go nuke
and and he's he has shown us that he still can have pretty
big games too. So he's definitely one that I'm
keeping an eye on for playoff basketball.
Dallas Goddard goes kind of I I feel like I've seen him sliding
lately. I wouldn't be surprised if with
ADP updates Dallas Goddard's AD PS dropped a little bit.
I just think sentiment the the vibes are bad around the Eagles
right now in the market. And so that's that's one that I
don't have a ton right now, but I'm kind of keeping my eye on it
and I would bet you that next week is Eagle buying week for me
and that's kind of how I play playoff basketball is you want
to exploit what the market's giving you in that week and
that's part of building out your portfolio.
So like I said, last week was Ravens week for me.
This week Bills are on the menu and there there's some other
stuff that I'm, you know, looking to exploit that I won't,
I won't bore you all to tears with here.
But anyway, you just you want to be paying attention to what's
happening in the market and trying it to change with it and
pivot and exploit it. But I don't think.
We yeah I I think with with let's say versus the Goddard
versus Devonta Smith in playoff basketball stuff like it.
It it's clear that the way the Eagles offense or it is to me
anyway that the way the Eagles offense it goes is that usually
one of those guys is gonna have like a a smash week and and they
all have those smash weeks at like different frequencies like
A.J. Brown has the most of them and
then after that is Davonta Smith and then after that is Goddard
and like he at a lowest treat he's he's definitely the lowest
and and and and probably mostly because he's he is a tight end
but I I do wonder so you've got the Rhonda Smith there going out
pick 14 or so and then daughter gonna pick 30 like does he do it
so much or less frequently that in a situation where he's going
to it's it's three games that they that they'll play that
we're we're so confident that two of them won't be Dallas
Goddard games like that that that one definitely feels like a
very interesting spot to me anyway.
Yeah, I agree. I I'm definitely looking at that
as a a spot that I might want to exploit and really the thing
that I'm pretty interested in is it looks hard for the Eagles to
get the buy in my opinion I I think.
Fair, fair. Fair.
I. Think San Francisco probably has
it pretty locked up and so, yeah.
Sorry, I've misspoke on that. Oh, no, no, no, you're you're
good. But yeah, I'm.
I'm just saying that if the vibes continue to trend the way
that they are for the Eagles right now and you can get a.
Full. Eagles onslaught.
You know, Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, Dafonta Smith, DeAndre
Swift, Dallas Goddard. Like, that's pretty.
It's already attainable right now.
But what I really want is I want to be able to do that and mix in
one other high caliber piece from maybe a Super Bowl
opponent. Like, I mix in a Chief's piece,
or I mix in a Dolphin's piece or a Dolphin's piece, right.
And and then I'm off and I'm cooking with gas and I got the
full Eagles onslaught and maybe they get it together and make a
late push in the playoffs and you know get back to the Super
Bowl. And all of a sudden I've got
every Eagles player covered. And I happen to have a guy that
you could only get during a certain window when the vibes
were bad on the Eagles where you were finally able to Nixon.
You know you you got a Travis Kelsey with your Eagles your
full Eagles onslaught like and and it's a rematch of the Super
Bowl from last year. But anyway, I I think that's all
the time we need to spend on this tight end chart.
Briefly flip to the backups here for me.
Yeah, no one, no one here that's really even worth spending any
time on, if you're like. Not, not at this stage of the
season. If you're super disturbed and
you're doing like a Chiefs stack and you want to throw a Noah
Gray on there for the Super Bowl touchdown, you know, playing it
like a showdown slate for playoff basketball, I I won't
get mad at you. You know, if you're telling me
you'd like Noah Gray over Cadarius Tony to be the guy that
gets the touchdown of the Super Bowl, like, sure.
It's it's Week 50 and you can do your own backup tight end
analysis. So here we've got the wide
receiver opportunity versus fantasy points and this chart
we're focusing on the the receivers with 85 to 100% their
teams routes, they're are their teams drop backs, they're
running a route on the horizontal axis.
We've got way to target sprout run which is target sprout run
but it rewards and throws down the field and then doesn't it
rewards those more than targets close to the line of scrimmage
and sort of because we expect that to sort of like correlate
more heavily with fantasy points.
We've got a fantasy points per game on on the vertical axis and
and you can see that you can see like there's a pretty like easy
to draw trend line between those two things.
But then it also creates this sort of like interesting like
quad map where you can see getting lots of down the field
targets, scoring lots of points. You can see the likes of
Hollywood who is getting down the field targets maybe not
scoring so much points. You can see as we go clockwise
here this section where it's like not getting targeted, not
scoring points and then you've got the scoring points but not
necessarily getting the targets to justify those.
It's and it's It's sort of interesting here I see Calvin
Ridley is is like straddling 4 all four lines and it's like
which which way will he go? Yeah, yeah, the Calvin Ridley
four corners experiment here. I'll I'll tell you that I I do
think Calvin Ridley if if you have to pick one quadrant that
you think he'll move in that direction.
I just think with the Christian Kirk injury we're gonna see that
Jags offense consolidate really really heavily to you know
Ridley say Jones and and Evan Ingram and you know they'll
they'll mix in their their rookie whose name is escaping me
right now Parker Washington there we go.
He'll he'll get mixed in but I mean didn't really have like 14
targets I think Zay Jones had 14 targets I think Ingram had 11
like this. This is looking like it might be
an elite fantasy offense for the passing game.
I mean, shoot, you're happy with ETN too.
Like they're looking pretty attractive for vibes.
Are bad on the Jags right now like we talked about, you know,
because Trevor Lawrence is never going to walk again.
But I mean, Draco, what if I told you that I could get Trevor
Lawrence as my second quarterback to help get one of
my bye week teams through? Maybe I I got a 49ers stack and
I'm trying to get Trevor Lawrence to help get me through
and then I get 2 receiving options with him and those guys
are good for 30 combined targets in week one of the playoffs,
like. And I'm able to get all of that,
you know, in the sixth round and later to go with a pretty strong
49ers stack. Does that sound like something
you might be interested in? Right.
It's a it's a pretty like good prototype of the the secondary
stock you should build, right? Yeah, yeah.
It's, it's sort of takes all the boxes there.
Yeah, I do have some really good news on this chart and that is
that we are one CD Lamb alpha game away from him being the
king of the wide receiver opportunity chart.
We are going to get Keenan Allen with the Easton, Keenan Allen
with Easton Stick and you know, I I just have a hunch that
Keenan Allen might see his fantasy points per game drop a
little bit with Easton stick and I mean CD Lambs looking like
that alpha man. I I want to say it was week two
that I said CD Lamb is moving up and to the right and it aged
poorly for a couple weeks. It didn't look.
Great Week 4. You were like he's moving down
to the left. I may have capitulated too early
because my original take was spot on Draco CD Lamb wide
receiver one. Overall, he's the alpha that we
deserve, you know, very, very hyped on CD.
He's, he's balling the fuck out. So that's been fun to watch.
So I, I, I, I I don't wanna. So just opinion down there are
are are you saying that next year you think CD Lamb should be
the first receiver gone? No, but I'll definitely be
taking CD probably in the top five next year, I think.
Right. I, I, I, I I think that's where
he'll go. Yeah, and.
And if he doesn't, this is this is the really crazy Cowboys
pricing dichotomy that you get in basketball.
And I've noticed this for all my years playing basketball.
You will I the Cowboys will never be appropriately priced.
The Cowboys will either be way too expensive 'cause you're
getting a rational exuberance from Cowboys fans and they're
all drafting them and way too early.
Or the Cowboys will be way too cheap because Cowboys fans are
snaked bit and they're refusing to draft Cowboys players.
And then you also just get the general sentiment of the market
hating the Cowboys because they're the most fun team to
hate and you get them pushed down from that bias there.
So I feel like the Cowboys are like the team the market never
can price correctly. So I pray that next season they
fail to price them correctly. But I have a sneaking suspicion
that they're they're gonna price CD Lamb up next year.
Yeah, yeah, I think that, I think that is true.
And so do you think that his, his playoff basketball ADP is
appropriate? I I see he's sort of like second
wide receiver ADP of three. Yep, yeah, it's pretty pretty
efficient in my opinion. Right, 'cause he he's he's got
the alpha share of, like, A-Team pretty much guaranteed to make
the playoffs. Yeah, let's see.
I mean, Garrett Wilson has been. Garrett Wilson doesn't know how
to do anything other than catch every ball thrown his way.
That man is so, so good. If if we had gotten an Aaron
Rodgers season with Garrett Wilson, he also would be going
top five next season. He is.
Possibly already a top five wide
receiver in the league like he's that good.
He just he looks so different than you know you you see him
that's that's a that's a dude that is he's just built
different than a lot of the other you know even the top
receivers in the game like that guy's special so and we got a a
game that Zach Wilson showed a little bit of competency.
I mean I'm not, I'm not counting on that going forward.
But you know if you have Garrett Wilson in a managed league and
you're you're wondering if you you know can start him or not.
I think at this point you're just at the the spot where it's
a start, your studs kind of situation and you just got to
roll them out right. You know QB play with, you just
got to do it. And I guess asking about Amon
Ross and Brown. So he's one where it it feels
like you it feels like you're playing the the Lions as sort of
like one and done or like that that feels like the most likely
for them and is is someone like Amen Rah is like an ADP of 21.
Is that like OK to pay for like a one off piece or or let's say
you get like a round of value or something like that?
Yeah. Is that too expensive to play
one off pieces? I look at the Lions a lot like
the Jags, right? So there's situations where you
need those players and you'll know them when you see them.
And so it just depends on what side of the conference you need,
what other pieces are sliding in the draft, what other people
have taken in the draft? Has anyone opened Lions in their
game tree? Has anyone opened Jaguars in
their game tree? And and understanding the
implications of you know those players being available and and
also like what what the even if they haven't already opened
Lions or Jags in their game tree what the game tree is that
they're in if Lions or Jags would be appealing to them.
And so understanding, like will this be a path that would be
contested for me where I'm not able to get all the the pieces
that I want at value? Or is it something where this is
uncontested because of the way the room has shaken out?
I can go for a really sick lion's back stack that can get a
bye wee team through. Going.
Going through all the game tree stuff is something we're not
going to do here because we've already gone.
Well I I I just just to go back on my question and are you sort
of telling me that like an ADP of of 21 here it it it's still
too expensive unless you think there's a viable way for you to
to build out that stack. What I'll what I'll say is the
majority of the time there's many other players I want to
take before him at that point in the draft.
He's often not my first choice at that spot in the draft.
It would require a really specific run out in the room for
him to be the best pick at that point in the draft.
So I'm willing to take him, but typically I'm taking him when he
falls. OK.
Yeah that that that makes sense and and I think that that is
when the one off sort of makes sense is like you're you're
you're getting value. Let's see.
Any anyone else here? I don't.
Yeah, no, No one that's really like no major changes or
anything. Like a lot of these guys, they
are. They are what we thought they
were at this point in a season. Anyone who wanted to call out
before we go to the next chart. Yeah.
So I see, I see Jordan Addison, we were talking about Vikings
and and and then them being like a 70% probability or yeah, a
high probability to make the the playoffs.
And like Jordan Addison's going undrafted now.
I know he he's in the bad section of the of the chart and
you have you have the issues that we've had at quarterback
for and for the Vikings but that that seems like a little
interesting if if he's gonna be undrafted and and then like he
he he's definitely still like an exciting like rookie.
Yeah, Love Love Jordan Addison. The player super overweight on
him in basketball, will draft him aggressively next year.
Love loved his prospect profile coming out.
Thought he was one of the best wide receivers in the class.
I will have 0 Jordan Addison shares in playoff basketball
because there's lots of times where Justin Jefferson goes
undrafted. OK and and so that's fair.
Yeah. I I never need you know I I
don't think the outcome where the the Vikings make the
conference championship is very likely at all.
You know it. We're talking like all time
miracles for that to happen and so that's what would need to
happen for me to be considering Jordan Addison the way that I'm
likely playing. It is like Justin Jefferson, one
offs only and and occasionally with whatever quarterback as the
situation crystallizes. But yeah, he's he unfortunately
does not get to make my player pool for playoff best ball.
I have to say I'm comfortable being the person asking the dumb
questions or saying the dumb things as maybe an instrument
for you to make these points like I wanna be pretty
transparent. I, I, I, I'm, I'm trying to like
facilitate conversation, but it it it's definitely not not
something I have a lot of experience in.
And they're they're not dumb questions, though, Draco,
because this is the most different format than any other
type of fantasy that people are used to playing.
And there's a reason why it's my favorite format.
It's because I want to play the games that I'm better than
everyone else had, and I am such a disturbed individual.
Like, I've spent so much time thinking through all the
strategy of the game, doing the math surrounding playoff
basketball, like looking at the historical data, you know, like
if I am, if I'm having trouble sleeping at night, I'm.
I'm literally thinking through different strategies and things
like that for playoff basketball, or taking notes for
things to research or look into or or go down like it's an.
Obsession for you? Yeah, yeah, 'cause that's just
how I am. And so I'm I'm trying now to
take all of the knowledge that I've accumulated for this game
and the advantage that I have and I want to share it with
people. I I I just, I think that it's a
game where I have such an advantage that I can probably
get someone that listens to what I have to say to win.
So like I that's that's what I'm playing for.
Like of course I want to win, but I really, really want that
message or that, you know, just to know like I helped someone
bink something that would be really awesome.
So. Well, I appreciate you, you
sharing it with us. And so just just just to keep us
moving and I think we're ready to move on from this chart and
displayed the true wide receiver king of the 2023 and Tyree Kill.
And so this is our, this is the same chart, but it's the 70, the
85% roots run and really these guys are all starters too.
But you you you have to if if we put these guys along with the
guys in the first chart it would just be a pure BLOB so we have
we have to separate them out somehow and interesting to see I
I guess Devo Samuels had had has had some big games now and and
he he's he's a he he's a 49er so he's he'll obviously be come
with a high value and and that that's sort of reflected in the
price as well he's think of ADPADP is 8.
Yeah, yeah, Debo. Certainly efficiently priced, in
my opinion. You know Nico Collins was a guy
that prior to last week with the injury I and the loss for the
Texans, I was willing to make thin.
Now the Texans are kind of do not draft list for me and it's
again it's one where it's I'm totally happy waiting and
seeing. Let me let me see if the Texans
make the playoffs. If they do their price isn't
gonna go to the moon. I'm not gonna miss out on the
last chance to draft cheap Texans you know.
So at this point you don't need to buy a Nico dip or buy a
Stroud dip like don't get cute with this kind of stuff.
Honestly, like there's so much stuff in playoff best wall where
once you get the the baseline strategy like the learning curve
isn't that steep. Once you you become educated on
this is like the optimal way to play the game.
You don't need to get that cute. People suck at this game.
They're so bad. It would be like if we're
playing Texas Hold'em and your opponents just are like refusing
to use their second card. They get dealt 2 cards and they
throw one off the table and they just play with one card the
whole time. Like you don't need to get cute
when you got a good hand, call them when you don't have a good
hand full. You don't need to get fancy.
We don't need to range merge. We don't need to polarize our
ranges or anything. We don't need to be, you know,
looking at solvers, you know, just, you know, play ABC poker
here. And so that's kind of the
approach you take with playoff basketball.
So don't need to get crazy with Nico Collins.
Same thing with Mike Evans. Like, would I like to have some
last round like let me let me paint you a picture, Draco, the
Bucks win the division. I get my last three picks of the
draft to sneak my, you know, my Ravens team, Ravens get to buy.
I'm trying to sneak the Ravens through on the bye week.
My last three picks of the draft.
Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Rashad White.
Who says no? Right, but you don't need to.
Do it right now. Right.
I I would say that that's another situation where you're
perfectly happy with them as a stack but but you'll get that as
cheap as you want mostly pretty much the entire draft season and
and you get to wait until it's it's a short shame rather than
yeah, yeah they try to get cute with it.
Yep. You don't gain anything for the
additional risk that you're taking right now.
And that's really how I felt about the bills last week too is
and they didn't, they moved up a little bit, but they didn't move
up all that much. But now it's we're kind of
getting to critical mass. And I would bet you that through
this week the Bills continue to move up because the way that ADP
changes in these contests is as we get the new playoff odds
delivered to us after all the games settle on Monday night.
And you know all the the different sources that are
providing these playoff odds, whether it's you know, New York
Times or summer sports or what have you, you know you're
looking at these odds. Once the market gets a hold of
those, then there's a couple days of drafting where the
market moves towards those new lines.
And So what we're gonna see, I mean I'm already seeing the
Bills move up. I bet they keep moving up past
their current efficient price. So that's why I want to hit them
now and why I was willing to wait earlier and and kind of
same same thing for but even to a greater extreme for these
teams that don't really have a chance to make a deep run like
the Bills. I can tell myself a story where
they make a deep run and get to the conference championship
right. But like, I have a really hard
time telling myself that story with the Bucks or telling myself
that story with the Saints. And so that's why we we do, do
with those guys, so. And so somebody else that that
sends that to me here is that so Quez Watkins he's in like the 70
and the 70% root share for the Eagles and he was somebody I who
I used to love the draft because he's a starter for the Eagles
and but he's in the like they never target him he just score
any points is he worth is is is is that somebody who's
worthwhile tacking on to the end of a an Eagle stock or is it
someone like what's the point. For me, not really, because
right. Like I talked about, you can get
a full, you could get like a five man Eagles stack.
Like you can go Jalen Hurts, A.J.
Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goddard, DeAndre Swift.
And then like you want a 6th Eagle, 'cause you they're making
the Super Bowl and you want to have an extra bet over everyone
else that gets there. Throw Kenny, game well on there.
Like you don't even the the. Run out.
Yeah the run out where you get to Quez Watkins is pretty hard
for me to get there and I personally am am pretty low on
the Eagles for for like their like you know you get.
The Let let me put paint you a scenario, though.
So you've you've taken Jalen Hurts and you've gotten A.J.
Brown and DeAndre Swift. But you're in one of those
drafts where people don't drop efficiently and they just take
them on you and I guess OK, you you could you could you could
take Kenny Gainwell and and pair him with Swift.
But is is even that a scenario where where Quez is worthwhile
looking at or is it like, you know, I'll just take my lumps
and I'll figure out how to to fit that like smaller Eagle
stack into other stacks? I'd I'd definitely lean towards
fitting a smaller Eagle stack and going deeper on my other
Super Bowl opponent. What I'll say though is there
can be value in showing up as the only guy with Kwez Watkins
to the Super Bowl right? If it if if you get to the 400
team final and you're literally the only guy with Kwez Watkins
and like there's a non zero chance that Kwez pulls in a deep
touchdown or something and that's all the money right?
But for me personally, I want to make the higher probability bets
'cause like I said, the game doesn't have to be hard.
Like we can kind of keep it simple in this format and and
smoke our opponents so we don't need to get fancy with the Quez
Watkins stuff. But if you want to, if you've
got a lean that oh, I'm really bullish on the Eagles and I'm
super overweight Eagles and you want to mix 1 Quez Watkins team
in there, maybe, You know, if you're doing a ton of volume,
maybe 2 Quez Watt, you know you're Max in the gauntlet, the
mitten, the gauntlet, 2. The Mitten, 2.
The Gauntlet returns, the Mitten returns.
The Mitten returns. Again, Like you're doing all
that. Maybe you get. 3000 of dollars
invested in Eagles sucks. Yeah, then you, Then you.
Then you don't want to fade full fade quiz, but otherwise you
probably should. Yep.
That makes sense and and that that is that is helpful.
That is helpful for sure And anybody else you want to touch
on here? Brandon Cooks all of a sudden
becomes a really good pick for playoff basketball, right?
Like he was just a mediocre like whatever kind of player before.
But like it's playoff best ball now and he's on a on a team with
high probability. So he's all of a sudden really
good. You know Jalen Waddle the
dolphin. The vibes around the Dolphins
are now bad because Tyree kill is hurt.
You know I'll I'll be honest like I'm I'm scared about the
Dolphins too without Tyree kill. So I've been I've been kind of
just like waiting and I've been lurking.
I'm lurking on my Dolphins exposure.
So far this week it just, you know, if I get a big fall or I
get I get put in a situation where the Dolphins are the
highest EV path remaining to me, then I'll take it.
But you know, in the event where Tyreek Hill's not right, maybe
Jaylen Waddle has to step up. It's been a a bit of a
disappointing season for him, but we've seen what this player
can do, Like Jalen Waddle's not a Jag, you know, It's just it
just really has been a down season for him, so maybe he
comes on at the right time. You know, what if we got those
kind of Jalen Waddle games that we saw with a decent frequency
last season? It's not like Jalen Waddle had
one Spike week last season. We all got head over heels for
him. The guy was delivering Spike
weeks pretty good last year, so I'm.
I'm not willing to write him off just yet.
It's like a you know, I I think the the sentiment's pretty low
on Jalen Waddle. You see him fall often in
playoff basketball. So that's another one where it
just, you know, keep keep an eye out for it.
OK, got it. Got it for sure.
And so let's say let's move on. Oh my God, it's.
It's Rashi Rice. Jayden Reed.
Parker. Washington Curtis Samuel. 50
feet of crap. Everyone else.
Actually, that's a lie. Odo Beckham.
His role is, is starting to come on a little more.
He's just like this low low snap, but you know higher.
He he gets looks. He honestly, Odo Beckham is the
Odo Beckham is Rashi Rice jumped in a time machine, became dusty
and plays for the labels, right? Like, we'd love if he ran more
routes and was on the field more, but it's like when he's
out there, he's getting targeted and he can do stuff.
So I think that if you look at Odo Beckham as the geriatric
Roshi Rice of the Ravens, that's.
Probably. We know he reminds me of Antonio
Brown his last year with the Tampa Bay books.
Yeah, where he was like a low snap share, but they were like,
OK, this, this is one of our best players.
We want to get him the ball whenever he's on the field.
And so like it was like the the target share stuff ended up
still being good. Yeah, that's that's a good call
for sure. So yeah, Odell Beckham all of a
sudden very sexy in playoff basketball.
There's actually a couple guys on this chart that are are guys
that I have good exposure to already.
Not just like, oh, I mix them in here and there, but like Michael
Gallup. Pack the bags, baby.
Like give me, give me the Michael Gallup.
Jalen Tolbert. Sure.
Rashi Rice. Yes, please.
A heaping helping. You know, like there's there's
plenty of guys on this chart that actually are relevant for
playoff basketball, but it's all team driven, right?
It's it's not that we think these guys are going to have a
huge breakout or anything. It's just that five points in
the Super Bowl can be worth $150,000.
So that's that's why. And I do know that Rashi Rice
had an 82% routeshare last week, 27% targets for run.
So like he's keep he's that's one of those things where he's
like increasing the route share and keeping the the target stuff
so like he he and and he had a solid week last week I've I've
talked about Raashi rice to the moon but I I I think that's like
a genuinely like strong sign and signal of like him becoming more
and more important and like reliable week to week in
fantasy. I agree.
I I think Raashi Rice is the Chiefs receiver to own.
You know, of course Kelsey is going to be the one there.
But you know, after Kelsey, it's it's Raashi Rice as the guy to
own if you're trying to play anything Chiefs in playoff
basketball. So and like to me it's starting
to to cook up like that rice will be like his.
His value has has jumped so much that it I think it might take
the market like in in in next year's best ball a good while to
catch up like I hope. I just tell you the the what's
that? I said I hope you're right.
Like if I tell you that like he's gonna be an 80% routeshare,
27% target Sprite, run all all next year for the Chiefs it's
like what's the what is the value on that is that that it's
like really high right 5th. Round, sixth round.
If Kelsey is still there, right? Do you think higher?
I almost wonder if it's higher. Do you like or?
Would you say higher than the 4th?
Like that's that's where we're looking.
I mean, higher than the, higher than the 4th.
I started getting really uncomfortable.
But like, I think like the Fort is like, yeah, maybe the Fort is
like the top of the. Ring cause like Brandon Nyuk was
going in the early 5th, right and I don't think that his value
gets there. I I think the 5th I think.
I think. I think efficient price is
probably the fifth round. I think 5 sixth earn maybe even
but that's but I I bet you that we could get him.
I I think you might be right that the market might let him be
a little cheaper than that for too long.
So, but we've ruined it. Now.
We told the ship chasers about it, and we've seen what ship
chasers do to Kansas City Chiefs wide receivers, ADP.
And you know, I know there's a. Discount of it'll be quick.
Yeah, he's no sky more with the the sickest name that we've ever
heard. But I got to say, Rashi Rice is
a pretty sick wide receiver name, so we might need to make a
clip for next season. That's what I'm saying.
Yeah, yeah, I, I, I'm, I'm hoping that I get fun, cheap
ways to bet on Rashi rice next year.
But we we'll see. We'll see.
And I I think that's all that we need to cover on this part.
And so next week I will not be joining you.
I'm gonna be traveling for the holidays, so I believe that
you're going to have a special guest hosting with you.
And we're going to get some industrious member from the ship
chasing Discord to run my code to pop out these charts.
So we've still got them for next week.
Before I leave, I am going to a state where I'm not able to
draft underdog teams. Very unfortunate, but you know
what? Probably good that I'll be
forced to spend some time with family and not not just be
buried in my phone mindlessly drafting playoff basketball
teams for the entire week, but we we are going to drop one more
premium pod over at leg up for playoff basketball.
We Pat might get mad at me for this, but we should have the
tool out this week. I would, I'd say earliest is
probably tomorrow and probably Thursday by the latest, but I'm
super excited to share that tool with you guys.
And so I I would anticipate that we're certainly going to go over
some use cases for it on the Friday pod as well.
And then once I'm back from the holidays, I'll be in you know
all the all the usual Discord channels you can find me.
But also over in the leg up premium Discord channel.
I'm probably going to be doing some live drafts of playoff
basketball there. And if you are drafting playoff
basketball and you're new to it or even if you're not new and
you're just wanting to make sure that you're you're dialed in and
you're drafting really solid teams and you want me to to
backseat you and kind of sit with you.
We can hop in a voice chat there and I'm I'm happy to do that
with members of the community, try and get you guys in the best
position possible to shift these playoff contests.
So I won't be seeing you for a couple weeks, but Draco will see
you next Tuesday. Yeah, we'll see.
Thanks everyone for listening in and see you next Tuesday.