Hello everybody and welcome to week. 14 of sad.
Jason was really interesting week to break down.
We had major quarterback injuries for two key contenders
in Baltimore in San Francisco. A Jurassic back, you'll shake up
in Buffalo or James. Chuck seems up, overtaking
single server for the lead role, continue to lead wide receiver
performances from digs Devante and tyriq.
And one more vintage Brady come back on Monday night.
Pat, I'm glad glad here to join this week for Connor.
How was, how was your week? My week is pretty good, capped
off with her Rashad white game-winning touchdown.
Probably, you know, probably probably a good sign.
If Tom Brady's about the happiest, he's been off.
Season because of the player you have the most experience in
baseball. That was so good.
And then also, you know, we could we could use those points.
I think Chris G, he had a sweat going where he needed Rashad
white and he saved the day. So I had a lot of ship chasing
fans, they're hurrying on the shop.
But yeah, that was huge for me to I actually had a home League
where I needed a win to to have a chance to make the playoffs
and I was down by four last play of the game Rashad white catches
that touchdown. I've actually thought it was
done. Yeah, for net.
I think I'd been in for that whole job in the whole drive and
bring em in till the very last play.
Yeah, I guess he's a little out of shape.
Fat line couldn't consent last couple played on whatever.
No one ever accused me of that. Yeah, so yeah good to see white
good to see James Cook. So I think a lot of rookies
running backs and wide receivers will get to you seems like yeah,
it seems like my redacted shares could finally be beyond the up.
So yeah. Just to give everyone an
overview. Will we're going to go through
the normal stature, acing charts, and stuff that I do
every week here and then at the end, Pat and I are gonna focus
in on the underdog playoff basketball contest.
So we'll do some draft screams at at the end of the show.
Yeah, why don't we why don't we jump in to, to the charts sort
of daughter back. Cool.
So here starting with quarterback.
Same charge as always, we have TD rate here on the y axis, Y,
axis, X, Y axis, sorry. And adjust yards per attempt on
the x axis as well as quarterback.
Rushing yards per game shown for the size of the bubbles here.
So you see guys like Justin Fields, Jalen hurts more the
Russian quarterbacks really pop here.
Pat, I think a lot of this stuff at quarterback Back has
stabilized. And for people who watch the
show, I don't think we need to to continue to talk about
players. We talked about a lot before.
So, in the spirit of that, I'm curious on your take for two
quarterbacks that seem like there to get some Starts Here,
down the stretch, for playoff teams, and Brock / D for San
Francisco, and Tyler Huntley for Baltimore.
I guess I'll start with humle, because he's a little bit more
of a known commodity. We've seen a bit of him last
year in Baltimore. How are you viewing Huntley in
sort of like the streaming quarterback?
Mix for the next couple weeks? Assuming he gets a few starts
here. I mean the issue is that all of
the stuff becomes a lot more complicated with a lot of
waivers closing down as we head into the playoffs and
everything. So yeah, it's hard to just say
like because the simple Take you know, my the take I want to make
is he's a great streaming option and you know he's he's got the
exact same type of skill set. As Lamar Jackson is just not
quite as good and you know, we saw that last year, he can
support Mark Andrews, we would imagine he certainly did last
year so there's nothing else really to supporting the offense
anyway. So yeah, I mean, he feels like a
very comfortable streamer. The issue is like, are you
comfortable going into To a playoff format with him, as your
backup quarterback. You know, you know, and I think
you probably are because like, to be honest, in a lot of these
formats, if you lose your starting quarterback, you're
going to be in really rough shape.
Anyway, so, might you might as well have someone with rushing
upside to go to war with even though there's a worst-case
scenario where Lamar comes back then, maybe you wouldn't if you
pick up humbly and now he's worth nothing to you.
So yeah, that definitely complicates things but I think
Huntley will be pretty serviceable here for Fantasy
purposes. What are your thoughts?
Yeah, I feel similarly, you mentioned like a similar skill
set to Lamar. I feel like more of a film take
care but their mannerisms or like weirdly similar.
We're on the when they're on the field.
I don't know if you feel that way, but it's not just like
they're they're like kind of archetype of play but it's like
their actual physical motion on the field looks very similar.
It's it's funny watching them stronger immune system for home
language. Like yes, chakra, immune system,
it seems and maybe maybe he gets breakfast with Mark Andrews more
than Lamar does that out its mother?
It seems really feed him but yeah, it's your question.
I feel the same way. There is definitely the Nuance,
like, you gotta consider your format.
If I'm in a format where, you know, more of a home League
format where waivers are not locked, you can add and drop
these guys. And I need a streamer this week
and others, you know, a bunch of teams on by.
I think I'm targeting Huntley pretty aggressively.
You know, considering all other Alternatives might be like,
Kenny pick it. Brock purdy-like in these
leagues were a bunch of the quarterbacks are scooped up.
I'm pretty excited about hotly. I think I view them as like, a
low-end quarterback. One streamer stream of this week
with all the buys. Yeah, that feels right.
I mean pick it has some nice matchups coming up, but I feel
like you almost have to have to crush to, to be as comfortable
start, as it's only one end up being just because the rushing a
rushing so much Republic. Yeah Huntley.
I think had run 40 yards rushing and a touchdown this past week.
So he's going to give you a lot of the Lamar rushing stuff in
Baltimore which is definitely exciting.
Another guy. I really, to be honest, know
nothing about Brock pretty in San Francisco.
I'm curious if you have like any, any thoughts on Purdy and
now we did like a decent Jimmy G impression in the game.
Mmmmm last week, sort of a lot of dump offs, you know, lowered
yards per attempt lower, just a desperate attempt, the museum,
Jimmy G, but he won the game against Miami and seemed seemed
decent enough. So, I'm curious if you have any
takes on Purdy, if you like, looked at him at all when you're
looking at Dynasty prospects or yeah?
Any like bigger thoughts and pretty curious.
Now really, I like we have some small sample on them.
I guess he wasn't he wasn't terrible, you know, he was Teeth
in EPA per play on the week. I believe it was tenth and
success or ninth and success rate.
So you know, he wasn't he wasn't terrible.
As far as the efficiency goes, even his accuracy was 16th in
completion percentage over expected between Kirk Cousins
and Justin Herbert. So you know, like because he's
not Kyle Allen, you know which which counts for something, I
guess the issue we're not, I don't think we're starting
pretty anywhere. Are, you know, I mean he would
be kind of a super Flex like best ball type of pickup.
Yeah, active waivers there but that mean I don't really see how
it's you're playing. So it's more about how we
supporting the 49ers skill players of wish.
You know there's a ton of guys who were interested in a feels
like maybe this is better for McCaffrey than everybody else.
Probably a lot of checkdown stump offs.
He was tied for the team lead and targets against Miami.
So you know, that's probably Lee what's driving that opinion to
some extent? But also I don't know it's just
sort of a logical logical way. I think this might go.
What are your thoughts on them? yeah, I think, I think I feel
similar what I've been trying to think about and maybe we'll get
to it more when we talk talk, talk about the best of all stuff
is, how much does the drop-off from Jimmy G to Purdy impact,
the 49ers, playoff, All Odds and chances of making the Super Bowl
because before this injury I think they were like the
consensus at least in betting markets, number three team of
the NFC after the Eagles and the Cowboys to, to make it to the
Super Bowl. So yeah, maybe we can table that
discussion for when we talk with the best because Jimmy has a
chance to come back for the playoffs writer, for, in the
playoffs, there was a report today about that.
I thought it was two months, if I remember, right?
Maybe. Like for the Super Bowl or
something? Yeah, that's what it seems like.
I guess if you trust that time long enough, it could be Super
Bowl. Maybe he comes back a little
quicker and as Is available for the championship game but yeah,
you're right. It's 78 weeks.
So we put them available around the divisional.
Round or NFC Championship game is what we have one rotor world.
Yeah, okay yeah. So I don't know.
I have to think like I have to think it hurts their chances
significantly. Jimmy was like playing pretty
well this year but yeah, I think that's something interesting to
monitor over the next couple weeks to see.
We have seen in the past in San Francisco.
When CJ beathard, Nick Mullens, these guys come in and they like
seem to do a decent Jimmy G impersonation and get San
Francisco some wins. Yeah, we curious to see if
pretty can continue that trend of the backup quarterbacks
playing well, or if we're going to see a major major drop-off in
San Francisco, kind of wait and see there.
I think 5.4 8.4 Brock / D which is ultra low.
Yeah so yeah I mean he certainly was checking down a lot.
I think it's probably pretty. I think I you had what nine
targets or something last week so it's fine for him last week I
guess but he would be the guy him and kid'll.
It's Like a little concerning for debose.
Probably maybe Depot gets more of that like short, like running
back style stuff so maybe he's okay.
And then I think the calf will be fine.
But yeah. It definitely makes all of them
risk. Your bets in the playoff
formats, for sure. Yeah, for sure.
Cool. Let's let's move on to to
running back here. So, looking at this chart we're
now looking at running back, expected fantasy points and
efficiency here on the y-axis, we have receiving expected
fantasy points per game. On the x-axis, we have rushing.
If you add those together, you get a sense of running backs,
total workload in terms of expected points.
A lot of things here that we've seen for a while, Austin.
Hecklers. Receiving usage is insane, kind
of flapping the field Josh Jacobs just receiving monster
rushing, volume with health, receiving volume as well.
We've been saying that for weeks, I think maybe the most
interesting discussion here in the AFC hat is, is the Buffalo
Back Field. I think people may be a sort of
forgot about it because it was on Thursday night, but we saw
James Cook overtake Singletary in that game, sort of all across
the a board. He saw 16 routes to singletary's
13. He Saw six targets to
singletary's just to and he actually out carried Singletary.
14 to 13 in in that game. So I guess the question for you,
do you think that's like a one-week blip sort of based on,
you know, we're Thursday, night weirdness, or do you think this
is sort of the beginning of the James Cook take over in Buffalo?
Man, I want to think it's the beginning of the cook take over.
He looks so good. I don't tend to rely on the eye
test a ton, but like he crushes the eye test.
He's also been running well like, you look at Richard's over
expected per attempt which is an NFL next gen stat that I really
like, he's been doing very well in that the last few weeks for
the last couple times that he's gotten work. 43% of the snaps
though, this past week which is pretty low.
So it's like Oddly, you know, if he was, if he was in the 60s or
even the high 50s, I think we feel a lot better that this was
something where they're actually like, installing him as the lead
guy. Instead singletary's at 44% cook
was at 43% and Hines was at 31%, and they had just been playing
for. I can't remember what the
status, but they played three games in, you know, a short
period of decline because they had the Thanksgiving game,
Sunday, Thanksgiving, and then the following Thursday.
So, They never you know it could it could simply be that they
were trying to preserve singletary's Health who played
78 percent of snaps in week, 12 played 72% of snaps in week 11.
So then in the third game of these three tightly scheduled
games, they then go to cook a lot more and we also saw 19
Heinz 31% of snaps when he's been really an afterthought.
So I think you could make like a fairly strong case that this Is
like nothing that you know, Singletary, still gonna be the
lead guy will see him this week at, like, let's say, 65 percent
of snaps and yeah, Coke will see more than a used to, but he'll
be, you know, in the 30 low 30s or something.
And there's not much fantasy value in that type of role.
I think that's like, that's like, very plausible, but he
looks so good. He also has an elite yards per
hour, only has like 75 routes. So, you know, you take that with
a big grain of salt, but everything.
You know basically no matter what phase of the game, you know
what he's being asked to do, he's crushing it.
So yeah I think they'll I think they will increase his role.
What he it's maybe a little Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott in.
That Singletary is pretty good in terms of success rate and
kind of is a decent chunk, play Runner.
But cook is where the explosions coming from.
Yeah, I think that's a good cop and yeah I think I kind of
agree. Like I do, you think this is the
beginning of James Cook? Having a bigger role in the
offense, but I'm not expecting some like linear, take over
where Singletary gets relegated, all of a sudden, I think it'll
be kind of more up and down before we see that and the other
thing I wanted to note in that game I think just adding up the
snap counts for these three backs.
I think about on 20% of all offensive plays or something in
that range, they actually had two running backs on the field
and I'm watching that game. I remember seeing a lot of
shotgun formations with both Hines and James Cook out there.
And I hadn't remember really seeing that at all before this
past week. So I wonder if that was almost
really like a new offensive package that they opened up on
Thursday night. So, I'm curious to see, it's
funny you mention that, I sometimes I would like go too
far. Down the rabbit hole on
something in the walkthrough. And then I'm like, you know, I
probably should have gotten two games done in the span that I
wrote about that one thing. And one of those things this
week was the bills offense of personnel.
Because I noticed two weeks ago and I wrote about this in the
Thanksgiving walkthrough as like.
I don't know what they're going to do here because last week
they want with a lot of heavy personnel and kind of a an odd
way or, you know, way that not been very typical at all of what
the bills had done to that point the season.
They went back to a lot of 11 personnel against the Lions.
They operate out of 11 personnel and on 88 percent of their
offensive plays against the Lions, which is was actually
above their rate heading into week ten.
When they shifted to kind of these heavy Personnel sets
against the Browns. But then they went back to it
against the Patriots and it's not just they went back to heavy
personnel which they did their use of Even Personnel, fill to
53%. It was at 49 percent against the
Browns. So very similar rate.
And they were there typically up in like, the high 70s 80s.
So, you know, a big shift in terms of both.
It's both too tight end. And two running backs sets that
they're shifting away. Its kind of, I'd say it's more
the two running backs, but they are using some two tight ends as
well. And that those power Personnel.
Groupings are generally better. For running the ball and in both
games they had a - password over expected those are the only two
games all season that the bills have posted a negative pass rate
over expected. Not only that the only two
games, they've been below a five percent pass rate over expected.
There are almost always like they truly pass heavy team like
every single week, pass, heavy pass, heavy game plans.
But two of the last three weeks they've been run first to run
heavy with power personnel. On the field, this matchup kind
of sets up where you might want to go with more power Personnel,
given that we have this very strong Jets defense, they're
actually not that strong on the run, the bill struggled against
them. The last time they played the
pass rush here. Could maybe create a little bit
of trouble in particular. The bills are letting up quick
pressures at a pretty high rate in the Jets are decent at
generating those. So I'm kind of thinking of them
maybe like a little bit more like Miami.
When once they got Jeff Wilson and not that they went like
run-heavy. I'm in Miami still very much
like a run first or pass first team but they can keep the
defense a little bit more off balance.
And so I'm wondering if they might do that again and kind of
like Pick their spots a little bit more with the passing game
this week and maybe we get more rushing attempts than we're used
to with the bills again this week.
Yeah I would buy that. That's those are interesting
notes on the Jets defense didn't didn't realize that so yeah I
would definitely be monitoring that.
I think that's two things to watch this week.
The split between cooking Singletary and just the overall
sort of structure on the bills offense if they continue sort of
trending towards run-heavy that certainly would be something to
know. Note, I guess a couple other
quick hits here in the AFC zolomon night on the Jets.
Continue to show out pretty well and earned a fairly large role
in New York. I would actually expect at this
point for him to maintain a role even when car get comes back
which could be as early as this week.
But yeah, I think you can can fire up zone of the night with
with relative confidence. Then in KC, just wanted to know.
They really are sort of continuing to define the roles
of Pacheco and McKinnon. We did.
Sue McKinnon, get a little bit more involved, running the ball
this week and Pacheco a little bit more involved running routes
this week compared to normal, but still it's a pretty clear
split here between the rushing and receiving role.
As you can see in the chart Pacheco, all the way on the
right with basically just rushing expected fantasy points,
McKinnon sort. Of on that top left side there
with just receiving so I can fantasy points.
So it's a pretty even funded back who can combine these
rolls, please? Oh, man.
Yeah, that would be fun. Ronald Jones.
Maybe he's not that guy, that's, I love of.
He would just be, he was literally be even further
further down than Pacheco is already the Baseline.
Yeah, I guess the only guy that I think mechanic can do both and
maybe they're saving that a little from the playoffs.
But yeah, I was going to send maybe Melvin Gordon could get a
role and do a little bit of both please.
No. I don't think he's been so bad
as a rusher. He's just he's just worse
McKinnon. Yeah, he's yeah.
Which is also at CHS, there's no one.
They don't have anyone who can do it.
Who can do both things, unfortunately.
Yeah, it's it. The it's why the most explosive
running back in this team was someone who was widely known for
having dead legs as of three. Yeah.
Becomes dead. Dad likes McKinnon like he was
here two years ago. Yeah, I was by far the freshest
legs, man. They need some down there in
Casey. But yeah, anything else that you
want to note on the AFC? I think that's all I have for
these guys. I mean Ramon Dre.
Yeah, to see it. What was his snap wasn't it?
Something crazy. Like he had like 97% snap share.
Thanks a lot Harris. Only had Kevin Harris.
Only had one snap and pretty sure.
Yeah that's right. Kevin Harris had one snap Madre
Stevenson had 53 or 54 snaps for a 98%.
Snap share 98%. Yeah, that's what Kevin Kevin
Harris is one rod I did remember cuz I watch this game.
He like ran. And into his own lineman.
Like really hard almost like, not as bad as like the but
fumble obviously didn't fumble. It was like that style of
running into your own lineman and he never played after that.
So I'm not expecting him to get more involved next week.
No, he's not about to make a move.
Yeah. Yeah, that's that's good to know
for montre. Yeah.
Let's take a look at the NFC and I see chart here again.
Yeah, I think here, the interesting thing to discuss is
probably similar to Buffalo and Tampa Bay.
We have Rashad white coming on strong.
The past couple weeks for net did return and out snapped white
somewhat considerably. He had 48 snaps to Richard weitz
Thurman. 33. He almost he had 32 routes to
Richard, White's 21, but white did see more targets and
fournette about the same amount of carries nine to ten to
fournette. So, yeah, as I watched this game
pad, I thought it was just sort of like a pure rotation of
drives and the discrepancy in snaps could almost be attributed
to just like which running backs drives lasted longer like there
was some like substitutions within drives but that was kind
of rare. I don't know.
Did you, did you see like for now?
Really taking a truly Don White there or do you think it's like
basically 50/50 in terms of usage, it seemed like a lot of
fournette at the very end of the game.
Yeah, you know we're not only are those pretty valuable.
Well though there weren't very many passes to the running backs
as it turned out on those particular drives but obviously
like a hurry up role would be important to have when the play
here is for both guys is they need to have the past catching.
Work. So that was definitely
concerning but then obviously white comes in for the final
play scores, the touchdown. I thought ran like a really nice
route. You know, like kind of
understood where he needed to be and Gets In The End Zone So that
obviously makes you feel like, hey, okay, sure for net had the
edge, you know, this week, but maybe that doesn't end up being
the case going forward. We've already seen Richard
white, start one game over a healthy for net.
I've seen a play. Well, He got 90% of the snaps
when fournette was out, so they definitely trust him.
I wouldn't be like, I think it's probably you got to consider
this kind of like a 50/50 timeshare right now, and I
wouldn't be too worried that it goes to like, fournette. 70/30
up from 60/40 last week, but at the same time, if it is 60/40
again, we're going to need a touchdown for white to pay off
and he's not going to In The End Zone every week.
Yeah, I feel similar. I think it's close to 50/50 I do
I do think if I was forced to pick one just for the rest of
the year, like just projecting their points out, I think I
would give a slight Edge to Lenny.
I'd think he's more likely to earn the goal line touches.
I don't actually remember in this game, if they had a goal
line carry, I don't not that I can recall, it could be missing
something, but I don't know. Just from the eye test, which is
what have to go off of white. Doesn't look great, running on
the interior and with fournette size and sort of history, and
that offense of have to guess that he's more likely to earn
the goal. In short, yardage carriers.
But again that's more of a guest on something.
Yeah, I agree with the idea that he's got, he's in Better
position for that work. It's just like there isn't.
That's not really the work. You want to have the edge on, I
think like if white is able to take more of the receiving work.
Yeah, and you'd rather have that in this off but they're so
effective on the ground. They're not this Juggernaut
offense that he thought that they might be in the happen to
the past. They really only look good.
Good when it's the very last Drive of the game and they just
have to pass. All right.
It's not a well like that it's not an offense and Coach
marriage. That really works like bowls,
don't Bulls doesn't want this team like he would.
He would just like trait. He would trade himself to the
Falcons if he could he would much rather be doing that bowl,
do. I mean he's punting on like, you
know, the opposing teams, 45 on Fourth and five and you can tell
Brady. Just hate city is doing all
these yeah, cowardly things out there.
Radiates. And while you might be right
that for net is a better bet to outscore.
Why? I think if one of these guys
hits big it's white so I would be.
Yeah. I would be drafting white ahead
in Playa formats person. Yeah that's fair.
I don't, I would honestly I flip a coin.
I think it's really close but yeah, I can see the argument for
T. So I think he definitely has
more upside. I guess I'm just thinking like,
if someone's going to have like, if the Buck's offense, does come
back and someone's gonna have like a three touchdown game from
goal line carries. Like I would put the money in
for that but I definitely think white has bigger upside to break
away long runs, you know, rack up like 10, catch games or
whatever. So Stephanie is in the chat, she
points out that he had a fumble in this game.
Lost it. Yeah, do you think that affected
his? Because I don't think it's gonna
affect them in going forward after he's the hero, right?
But it affected the the playing time a little bit this week,
maybe it did on maybe, that's why I like fournette.
Maybe. Got back-to-back drives at the
end before white came in. But yeah, I don't the fact that
he got the game-winning touchdown, I don't think that
that's a fact. He was on that on the field for
that play at all is bullish in its own, right?
And then he did it. Yeah, yeah, I agree.
Yeah. I think overall we can feel
good, feel good about white going forward.
Other things. I wanted to note, I feel, he's
sorry, but he's a little Tony Pollard.
It's a similar thing to like cook and Pollard.
For me with those guys are, it's like, I don't, it's not all gray
and we're also seeing like The Pollard snap shares is getting
more and more tilting where he's back to, like a the 40% of a
60/40 with Zeke and we'll probably see it.
Again, this week is like they're going to be salting this game
away against the Texans. Why do they need to be?
They should be honestly like the intelligent move, there is to
play Zeke over Pollard, but, you know, similar thing where you're
like you have the more talented back.
In white and cook and Pollard, but you may not have a guy with
more playing time. I still feel like that's where
you want to be. Because we're more confident
that this the talent is with that guy.
But it's like, it feels a little shaky for sure.
Yeah. So a couple couple things I
wanted to go off there, I guess. Like, first on white, the reason
why I'm hesitant to compare them to those guys.
And I know you weren't like directly comparing them is I'm
just followed as much much much more explosive.
Yeah. Like I was like You watch white
versus cook and Pollard like they don't look in the same
caliber of player and it could be this time of the offense
that's holding back white but I think he looks okay.
Like I think he looks like cop in as a pass catcher good hands
like decent route Runner but when he gets the ball in space
it's I don't know if he doesn't look that fast.
That expensive. Paul is the fastest guy on the
field. He's probably the best guy on
the field. Well maybe that's hyperbolic
could see Lambs out there. Dad.
Etc. Yeah, he's really good Pollard's
Pollard's way better but it is more, but but the talent Gap is
still pretty big between white and for night.
I think, at least, in my opinion.
Yeah. Now that's fair.
I think, if you look at like the advanced metrics, they both rank
in like the back half of things but formats like near the very
end and and why it's more like middling in general.
So and whites pop some weeks. Yeah, and that so that's similar
to cook. Work James Cook And like, for
the season, it doesn't rank all that well, and some stuff, but
he's had some weeks where you're like.
Okay. And so I think both those, which
is kind of what you'd expect for both guys being rookies.
I think. Okay.
And the other thing I want to note on on Dallas.
So I, I wish I could find this, but so, yeah, you mentioned the
Pollard, snap counts. This week were were down to,
like, the 40% rage, Zeke kind of considerably out snap-in, but I
Wondering if I could find the first.
Can't take it up. I thought I saw like the first
half snap counts were pretty even and then Zeke pulled away
in the second half when they were up, massively may be able
to pull that up. Yeah, I foresee.
Don't have that note there but yeah, that I mean so the final
score of the game was what 54 to 18 or something.
So I'm not sure how much we can take from the snap counts there.
But that said, like the dreams of Pollard being at like a 70/30
or even 5:35 to Zeke like I think I think those are dead,
it's going to return, you know, more 50/50 or even slightly and
Zeke's favor in terms of snaps which is frustrating.
But I think Pollard is still very, very start of all.
They're a really good offense. They're funneling a lot of looks
the running back. So I'm not like I'm just still
starting Pollard every single week and not really thinking
about it. They're funneling a lot of of
carries for sure to the running backs.
Like over the last three weeks in sync, Zeke has been back.
They are combining for an average of 31, carries a game.
Both, both the top two running backs, not all running backs,
just Pollard and zikr. Combining 431 cares, a game.
And the last two games that Cowboys have had a minus eleven
percent pass rate over expected. They're really leaning on the
Run game in a really big way. They're going to do that again
this week. So yeah, I think I think you are
firing at both guys. And by the way, you're right.
With the first half snaps, I'm going to make sure to get this
in the walkthrough. Actually I hadn't talked to look
at that. Pollard had 21 snaps which is
exactly what see cat in the first half.
So yeah. But I mean I will say that
probably doesn't help you this week because there's no way
there's no way the this game is close in the second half like
absolute zero percent chance. So he says urgent actions this
week. Yeah the Texans I mean it's a
it's a joke. So I think I mean, just just
alone like the Dallas defense versus Davis Mills are Kyle
Allen. I mean, it's, they probably
shouldn't even play this game. No, it's going to be terrible.
That's bad. I feel like Malik Davis is going
to have like three touchdowns in this game.
Somehow. It's going to be disgusting.
It's yeah. They uh, they probably should
play a lot of Malik Davis. Yeah.
But the one thing to that's not great for Pollard is So he ranks
awesome in Russia, roads are expected pretends he's great in
Breakaway yards per game. He s in both metrics, he's
running back. Seven in yards per route
running, he's running back one in fantasy points of expected
per game. But his success rates, kind of
whatever, you know, like the consistency isn't his strong
suit. It's all is big plays, he's a
big play, receiver is a big player, uh sure Zeke's really
solid and success rate. So you know, No, it's a little
similar to like, Singletary, cooker, whatever, where it does,
it actually does. Kind of make sense to abuse both
guys as much as we would, rather just have the explosive guy out
there for as much as you can handle.
But like from a coaching perspective, I kind of get it
especially against a team like the Texans.
Yeah, I think it I think it the usage kind of makes makes sense.
Like you said like Zeke's not playing so bad.
I mean and you don't want for like you're really talented
receiving explosive back. Like why do you want to risk
giving them? You know, ten carries up the gut
for game, especially a Pollard sighs.
Like I think the usage kind of makes sense but also you like
you said, like I think it's a good point that, you know, we
can bring out the first half. Step counts, all we want, but
it's still like takes away from running backs up side.
If they are not the one out there to solve the game away,
like I kind of remember this with Chimera you know in years
past where Ingram will get all those touches when the Drew
Brees lid, let's say it's rough. Big at the end of games and like
that would cap kamara's upside a little bit because he's not
getting the The salt, the game away carries, you know, that's
not like massive because they're slightly less valuable touches.
Right. But it's still you know you
can't completely disregard that like I don't think Pollard's
going to ever to get those touches based on the usage.
So yeah I think another, another thing we should talk about is
D'Andre Swift and the Lions backfield this week.
We did see Swift back to a better role.
Um I think I actually like you think you may have predicted
this on your good football show pod this past week where I think
either you or Kyle or someone hadn't nailed it.
Yeah, said you can upside was 50% of snakes.
Yeah. I was 50.
He had that upside of 50% so yeah, curious like that's that's
good, right? He was at like 20 to 30 range.
I believe in the weeks leading up to this.
He's back 250. Lot of the high-value touches
that's a good thing. I think you can now like feel
comfortable. I'm starting him.
Do you have any read on if like there's you think there's more
upside now or do you still think like, the upside is capped
around around 54 Swift 50%. I mean, I think, I think the
bullish thing here for Swift was like, I did kind of a back of
the napkin calculation to be like, I think, you know, looking
at week 12, I was like, I think is upsides probably around 50
because you're still going to get, like, 40 for Jamaal
Williams and that leaves 10 for Justin Jackson who, you know, we
always want. Running back threes to go away.
They never fully go away, usually, so you know, give him
his ten and maybe that gets Swift. 250 Swift got to 51, but
Justin Jackson was still at 21. So Jamal Williams dropped more
than I thought he might he dropped down a 30%.
That would be awesome if you so now, maybe we can get to 60
percent. If Jackson goes away a little
bit more, maybe even the low 60s.
So now I feel like you're upside, Target is moved to let's
say, like 60 and that's nice. And you probably feel like I'm
definitely getting 40 to 50 with DeAndre Swift.
It's still definitely Shake. I don't think it's not like what
we drafted and I don't think he's back to being you know like
a locked-in starter but he hit he hit the upside projection.
I think his upside projection moves up now and I mean he looks
he looks good and he's producing.
So and I mean, frankly, this offense is just pretty good.
Yeah. It's like kind of an offense.
I don't mind betting on. No think the offense is good.
They also, I mean DJ charts back.
Josh Reynolds is healthier. Jameson Williams is going back.
Like their their offense is getting all their guys back.
So I feel good about continuing to bet on offense.
Yeah, the small room Williams roll like almost breaks my chart
here, he's gotten insane rushing, workload sort of in the
bottom, right? Like below the chart and just
absolutely no receiving workload.
It's a really, it's one of the weirder rolls.
It does freak, your chart? Yeah, yeah.
Start to think of historical comparison to the Jamaal
Williams row. Like, I don't know if it's like,
Jerome, Bettis level roll or, like, what you would compare it
to but it's like insane. Insane expecting points from
goal line. Carrying Mike Tolbert.
Yeah. Maybe Mike Tolbert.
Yeah, I don't know. It's bizarre.
Anyways, couple of quick notes, I'll let you react to to any of
that, that spark your interest. First Seattle, I think with the
Ken Walker injury, I'd be prioritizing Travis Homer ahead
of deejay Dallas and Tony Jones. But that is a huge toss-up.
We don't really know the health of Dallas or Homer Homer dealing
with the knee injury, Dallas dealing with a high ankle injury
I believe and then Tony Jones, I think is just bad.
I'll give the slight Edge to Homer, just because I think he
will, you had been running ahead of Dallas this year up until the
injury. So I'm betting that Walker.
Misses some time and I think homers guy you want, but I would
be sort of adding probably, the order would be Homer Dallas for.
Yeah, I don't know, Homer Jones, Dallas, I think maybe it may be
in that order if you're looking for the Seattle running backs,
Other thing is, I think, I think it's home, or probably.
Yeah, yeah, low confidence in that.
Like definitely monitor the injuries this week, but if I
like some leaves and I have to make your waiver decisions
tonight, I would go Homer, but because I think he was a bit of
a surprise inactive this week. I know they mentioned the knee
injury, but it was, I think it was ruled out with the illness
more than the knee. So I I don't know.
But that's, that's a weird one definitely monitor at this week.
Other thing off game like 2 or 3 years ago where they leaned on
him as kind of a every snap guy or close to it.
I think and not much of a fantasy relevant, dude.
He's mostly just soaking up snaps but I think they trust
them. Yeah, I think that historically
like Homer and Alice have been on the same team for a couple
years now. I'm not going to do a deep dive
into Travis home, a deejay Dallas but my my God, my God In
My Memory says that they gently like Omer over Dallas.
I'm not going to waste with that but yeah, other other gross back
you'll discussion cam Akers. You know, shockingly comes back
to life this week. If you have to start a Rams
running back, you know, you probably in your consolation
bracket if you're looking at Ram's running backs now but I
would go with Acres over copper and Williams but it's a bit of a
bit of a ping pong effect, their back and forth.
Yeah, I mean I don't know what league this would be in but 870
Two percent of snaps and Karen was at 71% the previous week,
but I'll bet on the guy that's got it.
Most recently. Yeah, yeah.
Cool. That's let's move on to wide
receiver for people falling on Along on video.
I'm flashing up the like running back snaps and uses charts.
I will also post these on Twitter.
This is sort of another look at running back usage here, but I
think we covered a lot in these in-depth.
So, I'll post on Twitter for anybody who wants to look at
these these numbers in more detail, but won't cover off here
on the pod. Let's move on to wide receiver.
So here, we're looking at Water. Super opportunity versus fantasy
points for the wide receivers with greater than 85 percent of
their routes run. So full-time, wide receivers we
have fantasy points for game here on the y axis and then
waited targets, for Route run here on the x-axis.
For those who are not familiar way to Target for outrun is the
number of targets, these players are earning per route but it is
adjusted for the depth of Target.
So you know, your 40 yards, downfield shots DK Metcalfe is
worth more than your, you know, behind the line of scrimmage
screen to Rondell more and that's sort of reflected in that
metric here. Pat again a lot of this is sort
of stabilized. I think like we see a lot of
names. We'd expect to see in the top,
the top right here. I think maybe the relevant
question for this week and we touched on a little bit, is the
San Francisco wide receivers in Brandon.
I uke and debose Samuel. How How far are you dropping
those guys this week? And yeah, maybe to make it like
more concrete. How would you rank?
Say, you have, you know, Gabe Davis.
Michael Pittman DJ more and Brandon IU cow, are you ranking?
Iuka amongst those, those four guys?
I think you're on mute Pat. So Pittman more gave days, he
might be forth. Okay, honestly might be 4th, I
just Like, I'm already, I was already struggling with the San
Francisco, guys, you know, it's already feeling like, kind of
roulette. Here's know.
There weren't really any sign of a very flat waited targets per
out, run across the whole team Kittle Debo.
I uke Juwan, Jennings is well was pretty flat in terms of the
way to targets per outrun. He runs a lot less routes than
those guys but he's continued to be involved.
Which is like not what we need and then we lose Jimmy.
So, you know, I you quiz. He ran a route. 100 percent of
drop backs last week and I think he's kind of like they're true
sort of classic wide. Receiver one debose hasn't
really like challenged. He hasn't really taken that roll
back this season after starting its kind of the hybrid still.
So I think I think I would have I you glass Yeah, that's
interesting. I think I may be a little bit
more bullish, but I can definitely see how the floor
drops out for those guys. I think it just with, are you
grunting 100% of the routes. And I'm just a big believer in
the talent of him, then then Davis and Pittman.
And it's not like, you know, Dave is obviously as good good
quarterback if you like routes. I mean Pittman has literally not
missed a route in the Jeff Saturday.
He hasn't in the entire Saturday era, the guy's not taking a
route off. Yeah, kind of wild that is that
it's pretty crazy and gave Davis is, you know, he's not that far
out. Not that insane level.
That Pittman's a but he's consistently been like close to
100% rallies. He's the round leader in Buffalo
over. So yeah, I don't know.
I I definitely think I like I think the point is like last
week. I would have constantly said, I
you easily over Pittman Davis and more and now, like, I am
kind of waffling what having to choose between them and you seem
to be even lower. More than me on him.
So I think overall we can say it's a pretty big hit for me.
Now that we got seemed Arnold supporting DJ more.
We're back in, right? Yeah.
Sam Donald is the it's not a all alone.
He's known for string a bunch of against the other.
So I think that's what he's known for, for sure.
Yeah, well could go wrong. What could go wrong?
Oh man. Nick on the game Davis thing.
Like I would. So next comment is seeing gave
Davis solo on way to torture dot.
Run is a little worrisome. I've been kind of like tuning
this horn, this whole year, I was actually pretty high on
Gabe, Davis in, like, the offseason was drafting
basketball, whatever. But he's just been like really
bad earning Targets this year. Like he's in the say in terms of
like learning targets, he's in the same range of guys like Josh
Reynolds, Robert Woods, Adam thielen And Mac Holland's dpj
like, that's what we're talking about in terms of like his rate
stats. Obviously, he's on the bills.
So bump up those great stats by Buffalo's volume.
Like, that's not reflect on the chart.
The fact that Buffalo throws way more than any of those teams.
So it's not like, as dire as I'm describing, but like, it's still
pretty bad like you. I don't know.
It's weird for Davis, right? Because he was so efficient on a
per route basis, like his whole career leading up to this.
It's almost like it's flipped like used to be this really
efficient on a per hour basis, couldn't see the field.
Now, it's like he sees the field all the time and like can learn
targets. So I'm trying to understand like
maybe longer term view with Gabe.
Davis, like what what kind of player like, do you think we're
looking at? Do you have any way to like
explain? You know, sort of how bad he's
been on a per hour basis of here?
Well, he has a first retarget this year on 10% of his routes
which is not high. At all Stefon Diggs at 22
percent which is a really good rate, Isaiah MacKenzie's at 11%
so higher than Gabe Davis. So that's that's concerning
that's like a concerning lie, low rate and I think it helps
explain why he has a 15% Target rate.
He's a true deep threat with a 16.3 a taut.
So you know, he's not he's not drawing a lot of targets and the
way to Target per hour on accounts for the a dot.
But in general, like, you know, you shouldn't get like 22.
Started with a low Target rate of 15% because he is when he
judged us draw, Target tends to be pretty valuable to that
point. I would know he's seeing middle
of the field targets traveling. At least 10 are yards on four
point. Five percent is Right rates,
which is actually pretty high rate its highest on the bills.
So it's like when he is getting deep shots, he's tending to get
high value, like middle of the field deep shots that he can,
you know, take to the house. Potentially Or aren't going to
necessarily always be like the super tough catches Amari Cooper
rates really low in this metric, by the way.
Like, you think about like him. He's always having to do.
So it's kind of like, super underneath stuff or like really
difficult, sideline catches? Yeah.
So, I think, you know, it's not quite as dire for Gabe in some
ways, but also, like he is not the offense is not designed to
run through gave David's. The offense is not designed to
run through Stefon Diggs. Gabe Davis has his role is to
help take pressure off of Stefon Diggs Diggs is only been
double-teamed on 23% of his routes which is like it's a high
rate but it's much lower than you see from a guy like Jamar
Chase, who leads the league with like I think 33 percent rate.
Yep. All right around there.
So I feel like Davis is kind of doing his job.
He's drawing coverage not drawing.
It is super high rate, but he's drawing coverage enough to keep
digs its kind of the engine of the offense.
They're calling plays with to get, digs the ball, a lot more
than Davis the so I don't know. I mean I think you throw them
out there and you hope that this is a week where he has a spike
week, like that's that's who he is but he's he's that guy
playing with Josh Allen so you feel okay about it.
And then the last thing I would note is that I mentioned a heavy
Personnel stuff with the bills. He might benefit from that
because he didn't Wings has shown, you know, if you're into
wide receiver sets that that's good if you're one of those wide
receivers your now competing with not a wide you know there's
not a third wide receiver on the field which is good for you to
be able to earn targets and so with that in mind you know he's
had seven targets, get seven targets against the Browns, get
seven targets against the Patriots.
So I actually feel like maybe this is a week that could be a
good week for Gabe Davis, even though they shift to the Run, I
may be off of that run off of those running plays, we get some
big plays for Gabe Davis, downfield.
Yeah, I like that. And also people in the chat
matching the injury and Liam saying, I think 11 days off is
big for the bills. I have seen, like, some people
splice Clips together of gay Davis, running routes, and like,
seemingly limping and stuff. So it, maybe there is some, like
ankle or something going on with them too.
And maybe after, you know, 11 days of rest that that gets
better, I know he's been banged up this.
But yeah, that that all makes makes a lot of sense.
Okay, cool moving. Moving on to the next chart.
Again, a lot of things that sort of, we've seen a lot Tyree kill
this. Absolutely breaking my chart,
once again, at 88% waited to Archer outrun, he's got the best
role in the league. We see, you know, modern Rock
crushing it Jalen waddle having a pretty strong role, we've seen
all these things for weeks. The Thing I wanted to ask you,
Pat, maybe this is, you know, jumping ahead a little bit, get
into the realm of Dynasty. I think we have a big enough
sample on some of these rookie wide receivers to, to have some,
like Dynasty takes about them going forward.
So just, you know, putting on the spot here.
But off the top of your head, how would you rank?
I'm thinking of the five wide receiver, five rookie wide
receivers at a flashed the most this year and in my head that is
pretty clearly Crystal Ave Garrett Wilson.
Christian Watson Trail on Burks and Drake London.
I think you put them in here just for a sort of his rate
stats. How are you thinking about those
five going forward and maybe like a ranking, you know, off
the top of your head, one through five for dynasty Wilson,
one then I think you have to have a lava to and I wasn't that
high on a lava coming in but like, I mean, I don't know what
else you're looking for at this point.
Yeah, he looks like a stud. Yeah.
Then I would have Burke's 3. I think if he hadn't had that
concussion he would he was that was going to be explosion game
for him. Yeah, I really liked him as a
prospect and I feel like he's shown you know it's all about
like deep over the middle of field targets.
That's like all he's getting, it's beautiful.
I think I'd put I think I'm Watson for I mean yeah very
similar profile to a Lobby where he's getting a ton of deep looks
and he's also the number one target or not on the team.
You could argue that he, I mean, if anything, I feel like you
could argue, I have Watson too low.
So like apology, Cedric London, but when, when George, when Kyle
Pitts was healthy, they were going to him with their first
read. Target's over London.
London had a lot of targets last week, but old al-ahmad eggs,
olamide zaccheaus was, was getting a ton of targets over
him two weeks ago and like Arthur Smith probably not
getting fired. So, we're doing this all over
again next year, and dynasties very much a year-to-year game,
like, your you are. If you're investing in one of
these rookies, you need to be thinking about, what is their
value going to be at this time next year?
Yeah. And I think another Are like
almost year of dealing with this Arthur Smith offense.
It's not going to have his all that excited about Drake wanted
potentially. So I think I'd rather invest in
the other guy's not the Drake lawn and isn't good.
I think he's good, but I would have him five right now.
Yeah, I think I think I would have it very, very similar.
I think you can like nitpick here there, maybe flip a lot of
in Wilson, maybe flip Watson and perks, but I think that's like
the right order. Yeah, just a couple notes on,
like, London verse verse Watson. And again, it's still relatively
rough sample or small sample for just the rookie year.
But London is sitting at one point seven, two yards, for
outrun this year, which is good for a rookie.
Definitely not something. I'd be like scared off of but
Watson I think is up at 2.3 yards for outrun which is a
really Elite rate for a rookie and yeah like you said he's
going to be tied to Rogers. I think that's why I would Like
similar to the argument of Arthur Smith being back in
Atlanta, I think, you know, variable and his schematics be
back in Tennessee. I think I would actually say
Watson over Burke's just for the trade value side of things.
I think Watson is the guy that's going to have a higher redraft
price next year than Barracks. I think, you know, just for
being on the Packers offense and you know, when he's actually
been on the field for a full-time role, he's absolutely
just It's exploding in terms of fantasy points.
I think people will have that in their mind from the trade value
perspective. So the push back out have there
and I think that's a totally fair take.
I don't really, I think it's fine.
But the reason I would go Burks ahead.
He also has an elite yards per hour on right now.
Both guys are at a sample level where like, you'd really love to
see more routes to feel like confident about saying, you
know, this is reflective of the true Talent level, but it's
still a really good sign. Even even right now.
And so, you know, compared to London, Burke's is up at 2.19.
So he's much closer to Watson, then London.
And we're also seeing, you know, the offense starting to go
through him more and then like the thing with Burke's, I really
like them as a prospect. I thought that he could be kind
of this big downfield weapon for the Titans replacing.
You know, some of what AJ Brown was doing for them to see him
like doing exactly. Really that is like very is very
exciting. And then you also think about
like what what's his team look like when Derrick Henry is gone,
you know, is he are they potentially going to have to
throw a little bit more. So I start to see kind of the
ultra run heavy part of this team.
Maybe it's a little shaky or here before it does in Atlanta.
But I agree with you about the redraft thing, I think Watson
probably will go ahead of Burke's.
I think we're talking about like second round pick London.
Probably too. Maybe maybe early third for a
lobby waiting me? Well as markers that you said
second on London's you mean well so I'm sorry I meant Wilson.
Yeah. Second round Wilson Early.
Third olave. Third, fourth, turn Watson, and
then they have works in the, in the, maybe 45.
So, I feel right, that feels like directionally right to me.
Yeah, I'm trying, I guess I'm comparing, like, waddle was two,
three turn this year so, yeah, I don't see it was more like 3/4
turn. Oh, that's right.
He was 23 turn before Tyree cut sign and then Tire you got sign
you got bumped back, right? Okay yeah.
So that all seems right to me. I think like waddle, I think,
you know Wilson's rookie years, like comparable to Waddles.
I think Allah basis is to enough to dig more into it but that all
sounds right to me. So yeah, we're going to I mean
this is a really now I'm talking about I'm just realizing like
those top five, that's a really strong wide receiver class.
I think some of the other guys obviously Sky more Pickens It's
Dotson have disappointed, but having five guys that have
showing this much promise and we'll all be.
I think like, I think we can comfortably say they're all
going to be top six, seven round best of all fix next year.
Like that's a pretty exciting class.
I'm more by the way, unless something changes.
I think he's, we've got to be the Gada.
I want to be betting again on him.
He tied to the Chiefs and everything.
He's actually flashed on a per hour basis, but like, you got to
keep the price cheap on Sky more.
He's It's very concerning that he was the guy who got his price
yet. We're all trapped by the guys in
this is literally my but yeah I mean I think like 13th.
Rounds is probably like what we're looking at right now,
maybe 14th. Unless again, unless he can find
out. If he finds a way to get on the
field and maintains the efficiency, he's shown, I'm
willing to get quite a bit more bullish, but right now, the fact
they just have no interest in playing him is like extremely
concerning one thing. I just want to talk to of the
other hi. Hi, guys.
Real quick because Pickens people would ask about him in
the chat and also note Jahan Dotson, both those guys aren't
Aren't getting open. If you look at this ESPN rolled
out an open score, that uses the NFL player tracking data and I
listened to an interview where they're describing it and it's
actually pretty interesting. Like they use like their measure
of open changes based on like the situation.
So like if your if your speed is increasing and you have a step
on your man downfield like that's open so it's not just
like separation. It's actually pretty it's a
pretty nuanced score using the player track.
Data. So I think it's pretty
interesting to look at you're saying if you look at George
Pickens among all wide receivers and tight ends, he ranks 93rd
this season in open score. If you look at Johan Dotson,
he's at 103rd. There's only 111 guys that they
have in here. AJ Green is the lowest on the
list, a degree in and Robbie intercept for Cardinals or the
the two lowest on the list. Marcus voltage, scaling is third
last, Gary Wilson ranks 10th, he leads the rookie class Crystal
Lobby ranks 13th. He s, AJ Brown leads the league
title. Locket is actually tied with him
now and then Terry kill is is third.
So I don't know. It's pretty interesting and that
doesn't sound of kind of fits with what we're worried about
with Pickens. I think and Dotson is that
they're just not getting open. So those guys would definitely
be. You're getting the low yards per
hour on with those guys. Plus a metric saying They're
they're not getting open, I would be definitely be
concerned. Yeah, be considered, it's it
strikes me that Pickens like if he's going to break out it's
going to be in like the Mike Williams type of way where he
finds a quarterback that's willing, just get em huge volume
even when he's not open because he's such a good contestant,
catch guy. But yeah, that archetype is like
pretty pretty rare. And as we've seen with Mike
Williams, like hasn't always been consistent.
So yeah, that's I think that's kind of what you're betting on
with Pickens but yeah, you know, players can develop.
He can, he can figure that part of the game map, but early
returns, like I think are a bit bit concerning with them.
That's, that's finished off with side.
And here, I know we wanted to do some playoff basketball drafts.
So I didn't have a ton of notes at tie down this week here,
we're looking at tie-down utilization and efficiency for
gossip greater than 60% of routes Ron.
So these are all sort of the All-time tight ends.
The big thing I want to note this week is actually not for a
guy that comes up on this chart. But I think for the, the tight
end premium sickos out there for which, I know there are many
chigga cock. Whoa, is someone that is maybe
going to be a little bit off people's radar, but I think
should people should be paying attention.
He actually led the Titans and snaps this week at tight end.
Which had not happened all season, he was like very much
rotational player. He ran 21 of 35 routes to
Hooper's 20, soft 55 targets. Like once again ripped off like
a 40-yard chunking, the game, he's been really explosive.
I think he has like five straight games of a play longer
than 30 yards and if you go to this chart here he has the rates
that's really good with him. He has a 25% targets for Route.
Run is a towel. It is not by 9.5.
So he's being used down the field.
He's a guy like I know the tight end, Waiver Wires.
And these leagues is pretty Barren.
I think he's a guy that has like a lot of upside to earn a full
time. Role down the stretch and yeah,
tie down. There's not a lot of upside out
there, so he's one guy. I would put a flyer on if you if
you need upside at tight end, any thoughts on Shag?
I like him. Yeah he is.
He seeing a first retarget on 17% his routes which is actually
just one percent lower than then Burke's and so he's second on
the team. He's ahead of Robert Woods
they're looking to get him the ball when he's on the field he
has a 25 percent Target rate which is really good.
He's got 2 point 75 yards per hour on which is really good
he's all small sample size stuff.
He's yeah Ron he's on he's Run 100 Route so it's like all small
sample size. Stuff.
But now with these rookies, like we do want to be paying
attention when they're flashing Elite efficiency that will come
down. Yeah, but their role can also
increase a lot and send the. We just saw the role increase.
Also like Burke's might miss this game.
Burke's might miss you a matchup with Jacksonville who is
terrible against the past. I mean, that would be very
bullish for chick Okonkwo if he's able to take on a bigger
role. And I think, I think what we saw
last week was partially driven by Burke's being out.
So obviously went out very early in that game and so they needed
someone else they could go to Robert Woods and Nick Westbrook
akina, I believe combined for 10 yards in that game.
So it was absolutely disgusting so they have no play making
right now. Yeah.
Technically literally combined for two catches for 10 yards.
I think he's I think he's pretty interesting.
I actually going to float him in the NFC team.
We like we're desperate for a tight end.
I'm going to float him. There is a pickup that's not
even side and premium. Yeah, yeah.
Yeah he's yeah even even non-solid premium I think he is
like worth add in deeper leagues.
Yeah. Like he's like I think also
variable we might get frustrated with his usage in terms of being
you know leading very run-heavy offenses but I do think Grable
the Titans coaching staff is smart and getting their best
players on the field like we saw Burke's.
I'm a very limited role. Once you started playing well
that grew to a full-time role. Like I don't, yeah, I've less
confidence in some coaching staffs like, you know, the
Fucking Colts tight ends when Jelani Woods is 100 yards and he
goes back the next week to playing like 20% of snaps for no
reason. Like I don't think the the
Titans coaching staff is doing sort of like do something as
stupid as that. So yeah, I know that that was
still doing. Yeah.
Anyways, any like other macro
thoughts are like any interesting nuggets on tight
ends as you've been going through the walkthrough This
week I didn't have a whole lot else.
There is some some buzz in the chat about McBride.
If you have any thoughts there? Yeah leave it to you for final
word on tight ends this week will McBride.
I mean check out the ship chasing from last week if you
want to hear my thoughts and McBride, I'm just like nervous
that he hasn't earned any Targets All Season like stuff.
That's what, these vac up tight ends like, especially a guy was
trapped in the second round. Like, when he gets on the field,
he would actually have like a really high Target proud run
because he's there for like a specific package of plays.
Yeah but he just hasn't been involved as a pass catcher
whatsoever. The Cardinals also like didn't
really use the tight end much before Zach ertz got there so I
don't necessarily buy. There's a like a a role that he
like has to be in whatever I do. So I'm not like all that bullish
on McBride but he was a pretty decent Prospect.
I thought he was the best tight end Prospect in the class.
Although Titan prospects, I'm like really willing to change my
mind on pretty quickly on depending on what, you know, the
information we get in the NFL pretty hard to project.
But I mean that's still any was a second-round picks.
Oh yeah, yeah. I mean I definitely think he he
could be something. He just hasn't flushed anything
so far. I would note, Daniel Bellinger
was back after brutal eye injury like broken bone in his face.
83%, route rate, last week, that's pretty sweet.
Also not getting targets at a really high rate or anything,
but he saw five targets last week, which, you know, you'd be
pretty psyched about if you have McBride.
So he's definitely Someone to keep an eye on.
Yep. Nice.
That make sense. Yeah, I think I'm with you.
I'll McBride a bit concerning still has a decent role.
Will see if he at least keeps that be out there.
Yeah. Yep.
Last you guys, I guess like Super Duke leads, deep leaks.
Mitchell Wilcox was the Hayden Hearst replacement.
And Kate Austen had a pretty big role with braids out so maybe
two other like desperation plays, you can look at this week
at tight end. Okay, let's move on to the
playoff basketball stuff. So yeah, like I mentioned the
top of the show, we're now going to talk through underdogs
playoff basketball contest. So they have the wild card out
now has 15 K up top the first place.
I think like a twelve thousand dollar or sorry 1200.
Sorry, 12,000 entrance, eyes tournament.
So so pretty big tournament that's out there already.
We're going to start Pat a before we draft a team, with
looking at, Sort of a macro view on what teams we want to attack
in this contest. And to go through that, I have
this chart here, which shows these green bars shows, the
team's percent chance of making the playoffs with the lighter
green color. Their chance of making the Super
Bowl. I chose that over winning the
Super Bowl because that's really sort of like the important
probability here. That's the probability that
these players get either three or four games.
So that's really what we want to care about when we're evaluating
these teams thoughts of making the playoffs.
Also important to you. Like, you are going to have
some, you know, you're gonna drop some players and teams that
you maybe just banking on for the first or second-round game.
So that's something we want to look at as well.
And then, on the bottom of this chart here, in order to sort of
look at what teams are potentially undervalued or
overvalued. I looked at the number of
players on each team that are currently being drafted in this
contest looking at the underdog ATP.
So, the number of players that are going in the top He picks by
ATP the top 40 and the top 60 and as if you look at this chart
left to right, I think the market is not stupid, like
Philly Buffalo case D Dallas. A ton of players are going in
the top 20 and top 40 of ADP off those teams because those are
clear of the teams with the best odds of making the Super Bowl.
I think that, that totally makes sense.
But as you go further to the right on this chart, I think we
can find some potentially Teams in the AFC.
I wanted to highlight Baltimore and Tennessee where Baltimore
only has 20 players go in the top 20.
And just two players going out in the top 60 picks.
That's Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews, even though 538 still
has them and even betting markets, still have them as a
decent odds to make the Super Bowl at around like 8 to 10%,
depending on what you're looking at.
So who do we take? Yeah, it's supposed to trap.
That's a gross of. Yes, let's talk about Baltimore.
That's I think that that obviously is like why there's a
lot of new players going? Because it's it's so gross.
But I think in both Tennessee and Baltimore like there's an
edge where those T like the betting markets are telling us.
The 538 model is telling us like these teams have decent chances
to make the Super Bowl and nobody wants to draft them.
So like I think there is some Edge and taking like three
player, you don't have to, you don't have to like over sack.
Then you have to take five guys but, you know, throwing your
Duvernay, Isaiah likely Dobbins, and Baltimore on Tennessee.
Maybe throw in your conc. Well, like Burke's isn't even
getting drafted 10. L is not even getting drafted.
Like, I think. Say, all right now we're
talking. Yeah, give me some perks.
And well that's what that's really only got me excited about
Dobbins Dobbins jumps out there. Yeah.
I mean he's definitely someone who like, you can tell yourself
a story where he's like, healthy for the playoffs and I mean,
they would, they've already been leaning on the Run game, so,
Yeah. Okay, that's that's a third guy.
We can draft. Yeah.
And yeah, the pass catcher. It's so it's so gross.
Like, I don't know how I pick up a Skechers?
Like, I think you would narrow it down to probably Demarcus,
Robinson Duvernay and likely as the top three, non Andrews pass
catchers, but yeah, that feels like flipping a coin.
I do most rather just go with like an NFC receiver.
You know what I mean? Like you're yeah, in these
drafts. Like your Like if you do a
Baltimore stack or something you might end up, you know, having a
choice between like Tyler Lockett and Demarcus Robinson or
something, you know, because the Seattle guys have been going
really late. So I don't know.
I can't do it again. Yeah that's and that's like what
every like gut instinct when I'm drafting it.
Like it's so gross and I don't do it often like taking as a
likely over Tyler. Like it's so hard to make that
click, but something, I'm trying to think through in these
tournaments is just like if Baltimore makes the Super Bowl,
they're getting for games and like, in one of those four
games, I think like the Duvernay are Demarcus or likely is gonna
help you advance. And it might not even be a spike
week, right? It might just be like, you're
in, you know, the third round of this tournament you're playing
against like 10 other like nine other teams, half of them like
can't even feel the roster. Cuz I picked the wrong teams,
right? Like the other half like didn't,
you know, pick sort of more concentrated players and you get
Demarcus, Robinson's like 60 yards and a touchdown game that
no one else has like, I don't know.
That's what I'm trying to think. If you just pick.
Like, we're just kind of thinking about like we're in the
scenario where Baltimore makes the Super Bowl.
Like I probably want more than just like two players on their
team, just for like the cumulative points aspect.
So Yeah, I don't know. What are your thoughts on
Baltimore in Ghent? Like, because they with this
Lamar injury, are these odds, reflective of the fact.
So, there are 8 & 4 & Lamar might miss potentially like
three games. So now, they get the Steelers,
the Browns and the Falcons. So even without Lamar, they
could go to and one. Yeah.
And then I lost to the Browns there, but Yeah, it seems like
there. Yeah, the Ravens do seem a bit
risky because there are scenarios where they I guess if
the Jets and Patriots or like Chargers finished.
If one of like the Patriots are Chargers and the Jets finish
hot, the Ravens could fall out of the playoff picture
completely. I do think like what the 538
model seems to be doing is it it?
You can like adjust their model like for the quarterback
adjustment where they're actually like you see this in
the 49ers They're adjusting the 49ers, Super Bowl odds heavily
because they're like baking in the fact that Jimmy G is going
to be out for the for the entire playoffs are like, based on the
odds that seems to be what they're doing for the Ravens.
The model seems to be like not like they're their Super Bowl
odds don't change when you do like the current quarterback
adjustment or not. So I think what that feels wrong
to me. It should change.
Yeah but I think like if we assume that what I'm saying is
like I think it's assuming that Lamar is back to full strength
for the oh I see I see, I see ya.
Okay, which I think is like the Right assumption to make.
But I'm going to their ELO ratings, they have Huntley.
They have Lamar 875 points of Hilo and humbly at 46, so they
must just be assuming we get Huntley.
Are we get one more back? But yeah, but their odds of
making it have to go down especially if Lamar is not fully
healthy when he comes back. Yeah, let's see.
It does. So the odds of them making the
playoffs drop by 2%. If I like I could share this in
my screen, but if I flip between the two models, like quarterback
adjusted or not, the odds of making the playoffs dewdrop, put
the odds of winning, the Superbowl, don't drop.
So what I'm assuming that make sense?
Yeah, I think that's like the right way to do it, right?
Yeah. So yeah, I don't know.
Like there's a reason around and like it feels gross about in
Baltimore right now. Like there's a reason.
They're undervalue their offense is not Look.
Even though they've won a bunch of games are offensive, not
look, great, even with Lamar and now he's hurt.
So like it definitely feels like a gross bet, but I'm gonna like,
I think that's like two big tin to the players atp's of this
point to the point where I think I'm going to like draft a couple
Baltimore teams in this tree. I like it.
Yeah, yeah. Nick in the comments here since
I've been telling myself stories about jobs getting healthy since
May, which yeah, that's fair. But I do, I think Dobbins is
Interesting. Because when like, when you do,
when we do the FPC playoff contest?
We're picking only one player from each team.
The thing to think about is like, what is this pic sort of
say about what I'm betting on with this team?
Like yeah, like, is this team? You know, for example, like if
you pick the Titans and you are sort of doing it and I'm in a in
your mind where I'm betting on the Titans to win, like three
games, we probably have Derrick Henry, you know, because there
are countries like the The engine of their offense, right?
Yeah, if you have, if you have chick Okonkwo, you're hoping
that you get one, nice tight and premium game.
And then they lose like the most have to lose.
And, you know, you get lucky in that game.
So if the Ravens go to the Super Bowl, like I'm not saying
Dobbins is definitely healthy, but you know, if Dobbins is
healthy and they're able to lean on him, their odds of making a
Super Bowl are probably pretty underpriced.
So it's kind of a nice correlated bet in that sense,
you're making this team. Make a run.
What would really help them healthy dogs.
Yep, I like that Dobbins is definitely my favorite third
Ravens pick. Okay.
And yeah, any thoughts on the on, on the Titans?
I guess, like more. That girl, like the models, the
betting markets are saying, like, they have a better chance
of making the Super Bowl than the Dolphins, you know, Tampa
Bay, Seattle, some of these like more fantasy friendly teams,
Would you be making any like Titans Titans bats in this
format? One thing I've noticed I've only
done like a handful of these. But one thing I've noticed is
that the AFC teams tend to get snapped up like way quicker than
the NFC. It's like way more Comfort.
Like, if you're doing a bills thing, it's really comfortable
to go over and grab a couple, NFC teams on ship chasing.
We got a bill stack, that's probably going to be blown up
now that they're going to get the by.
But we got a bill stack we I think it was Mike Evans, Chris
Godwin, Richard white, Tyler Lockett Kenneth Walker DK
Metcalf, that mean that's pretty sweet.
You're getting like the whole offense but you can't really do
that on the. You can't like build the same
thing where you go Eagles and then go get like the core of two
AFC teams much harder to do, at least from the drafts that I've
done. So, in that sense, the Titans
are kind of interesting to me. Where at least I know, I can get
a bird Works, who's the number-one receiver on his team?
You know, for a team is definitely making the playoffs.
That feels that feels nice to have in your back pocket and
then I guess the Bengals the Bengals work on it easy like
they were kind of the fallback option.
I wonder how much you know, pricier they are now after they
beat the Chiefs. Yeah, I think the Bangles prices
are way up. I have a ton of Bengal seems
already. I think that's a team of the
most exposed to because there was a while where they're like
playoff. All Odds were only like The
percent or something. And yep.
Now we I think we can be pretty confident.
They're going to make the playoffs and I think the prices
are rising in those guys. Do you have the teams we built
the last time we did this, it might be fun to pull this up but
yeah I can pull those up. Yeah, we should definitely look
at those. I think we did do a Bangles team
maybe 2 bangles teams. Anyways, last thing I wanted to
to know for pull that up San Francisco is clearly over value.
And look at the look at this chart that's obviously because
of The the Jimmy G injury like the betting markets in the 538
model. Think that's a massive.
Hit to their like, chances of making the Super Bowl.
So there were so many 49ers going early in these drafts, and
I think it'll like McCaffrey's, I think just by anchoring
effect. He's going to stay up in the top
10 picks for a while. These drafts, I am, like, that's
like the biggest fade right now. I think in these drafts, is
McCaffrey, and, and you can see it at like the player level on
this next chart. We're looking at here, Here
Underdog ATP on the y axis and then all odds of advancing to
the Super Bowl on on the x-axis here.
And yeah McCaffrey McCaffrey's going like way to I when you
factor in their chances of making the Super Bowl.
Now unless we get some like Magic news on on Jimmy G the
next couple weeks, Yeah, any I think I think we should jump
into some drafts here. Now Pat any any other thoughts
before you go into it now let's let's do it.
Okay, do you want to? I see you already have the your
TAP hold up. Do you want to take over for?
Yeah we can do it on mine. I got yeah I'll look to pull up
those teams that we drafted at the end.
We got to know our exposures, you know.
First, I was just there. Two drafts is really important.
Yeah, you gotta manage them. I think I did the dumb thing
where I didn't label the drafts that we did so I might take some
more investigative work too. Okay to figure out what I have
like 10 of these teams so I'm not sure exactly what ours were.
You know, if he was drafted were so good that I just
intentionally didn't want to label them so I can take the
money. Hit that, oh wait, no, I lied.
I did label them. Hey wait, let me let me screen
share of them, quickly. Let's see.
Okay, so You're able to see the underdog tab now, right?
No. I'm still seeing.
I'm still seeing the underdog odds.
Oh shit. Okay.
Sorry guys, I'm still new stream yard.
Give me one second. Nick pointing out the
Commander's it 69 percent chance seems like a great cheap back
door. I think those feel pretty
decent. Yeah I was I was going to
mention that to like I think at least McLaren should be like
you're seeing Eckler and even like Jacob strapped in some of
these like that seems dumb. Like McLaren should be the pic.
If you're looking for like the guy who has a big ceiling in
round one to advance some teams, right?
Yeah, and I do like the Dolphins.
I wonder where they're going now.
Yeah, okay, iPad. I don't know why the screen
sharing is not working. So why don't we just do you want
us to blow up the draft and I can just verbally say what our
teams were for some reason. Yeah.
But you have to bring my screen out because I'm not logged into
streaming. Okay, there we go.
Alright so we got mind going, okay.
Oh wait, I figured out how to get mine.
Okay, I'm gonna hit. Here's our team's figured out,
finally, we'll make sure our draft doesn't fill, but we so we
did a eagle stack hurts sander dress, it, Bill AJ Brown, and
the draft filled. Okay, we'll go back to the SEC.
So we got Eagles and Baltimore with all, right?
Some we got Tegan's in that, that seems We took a lot of
Baltimore players, we're just talking about how gross that is
and we took a lot of them, only an idiot would do.
It took 24 night and likely and then Roberto stack we got to
Philly and Cincinnati stack. This team is sexy.
This seems sick dude and Miami three of the best.
My holy crap. All right.
I don't even know if we need to do anymore man.
Yeah we might be done. We're not gonna get that.
Cincinnati Bell is amazing. Saturday that we got Nixon to
Marty Huggins and burrow and then hurts Goddard.
Yeah. The Philly part of it is a
little weak. It's hurts gain, well and
Goddard. But if it's a filly Cincinnati,
Super Bowl. We have so many good players in
that matchup. So I mean, plus we have a waddle
and tyriq so we're good with the yeah that's in this working.
What's going on? Okay, we just started.
We just yeah, okay. Okay.
So who's your number to pick now?
It's it's either Allen or mom's, I think hurts.
The only reason I go Alan over Hertz is because the Eagles have
a 76 percent chance of getting the by now and the bills are
only at like 45. So I think that gives me.
Are you building to quarterback teams with Alan or just one?
I think you can do it either way.
I think, I think I would go to this early in the year.
Because it's not like the second quarterback isn't like dead to
help you. Even if Alan does, you know,
doesn't get the by, you know what I mean?
Like, there could be a week where I don't know.
Josh Allen has a bad game and the bill.
Still beat the Jets in round and round one and you needed like
points from Tom Brady to advance or something.
So I think I don't think you have like if you get completely
boxed out of quarterback like I think it's okay to just take
Josh Allen at a 45 percent chance but I think I would lean
to what are your thoughts. There I've been doing the dumb
thing where I'm just going. I'm going one.
Is this like one of these? You know your kind of you give
yourself the chance of building a team like we just all do that
team does have two quarterbacks so I don't know.
I'm fine either way I'm fine to build to maybe we maybe I should
go to since you're you're being prudent about it.
Yeah, I don't know. I think I think it can be sort
of a game-time call based on like if you really need a player
from an opposing team or a bills pass catcher to like make your
Super Bowl makes sense, I think it's justifiable if it feels
like kind of a luxury pick either way.
I think like you might as well go with the quarterback.
Yeah. But yeah.
Okay. I think we're going to have the
I don't even care if he's life. Someone slaps us.
We're gonna have the Gabe. Davis decision here at either
picked or pick three. I've been fading, Dave On Josh
Allen teams and that might be stupid but like man it's just so
hard for me to take like Gabe Davis over.
Let's see. Who would that us?
You guys be here. We're going to see you guys.
Got a lot tougher with Debo you know. yeah, cuz DeVos not really
do we go Delvin, or Gabe, or Pollard?
We could go Pollard and play for Dallas and see if I like that.
I think I like that. Man, it's with SF.
Like, so, ding now that makes that makes us pick pretty tough.
Yeah, we need to get something on the NFC side and it's not
going to be Eagles. Probably doubt, I mean, Dallas
looks so good. Yeah.
And that the ADP valleys have not caught up on like Schultz
and Gallop. Now they'll probably die from us
but you can get those guys pretty late and like gallops
roll and like production as really ticked up lately.
So while it really has, yeah. Yeah.
And you know, they're they're like smoking things right now,
but in the playoffs, Both them in the Eagles are like kind of
exciting and that they might be actually pushed for a full four
quarters. I think we should go Gabe now.
Okay. Like we get a stack.
I don't know. Feels like yeah, I'm fine with
that. I think like we could have
played it by taking Sanders or cook.
I think. And then like We can set up like
either Dallas or failure. Either Dallas or Minnesota in
the NFC, but I think this is fine.
Yeah, I think Gabe Davis still has a huge ceiling.
So right, he's not gonna last to our next pick now.
He definitely won't Wow, so CD DAC.
And then burrow that's in see, I wouldn't take although I wonder
when we took Borough on that hurts team but that feeling
yeah, I think pretty late. Yeah, dude, you're competing
against our Borough team. Yeah, you can't, you can't drop
Pearl in this format. You just can't drafting that we
got them. So cheap even though we drafted
him, and we actually dropped him in the way to really wild card
and this is the wild card but this is different for you.
Still can't ornament, okay? But you still I wouldn't advise
it. I wouldn't advise it it's not a
screenshot or is that like Do it the same toilet, man?
All right. Um, so what are we doing?
Juju just went I have an idea. I've got him.
I have some thoughts if you scroll down a little bit.
Yeah want to see is still okay. Fuck.
Is this what I wanted? Yeah, that's that.
Would have been a really nice pick.
We could go with McKenzie. We could go with waddle could go
with Andrews. I guess thoughts.
They have see stuff. So this is all flipped it sucks.
I guess I'll go with waddle, just play for play for Buffalo,
Miami in the AFC Championship game.
And yeah, I guess I just feel like they're it's like taking
Mackenzie or Singletary. When we get like, Knox or cook
later just feels like, I don't know, I agree.
Yeah, I don't want Singletary. I think I'm Mackenzie here is
our next pick. Mackenzie, or we could go with
something NFC, but I think it has to be NFC now.
Yeah, I have a I'm going to wait till this guy picks.
Well, whatever if he stops just like, I actually know, I know we
should've done Gallop Gallop or Schultz Williams picks like is
it way too early? Probably, I think we might be
able to get at least one of their next pick.
Okay, what were you thinking Godwin?
Godwin. I like that gets us to an NFC
team and I agree. I think we can tack on a second
bill later. Yep, let's see that.
Yeah. the water, it's always tough with the waddle pictures
doesn't feel as like clean but I think just get it at some point
just getting the guys going to be projected for like The most
points in a week makes sense. And if buffaloed Miami, make it
to the championship game like that can be really valuable but
yeah it does it's tough because you don't feel good.
You're like oh that's such a dumb pick.
If these guys play each other, you know and like what the first
or second round? Yeah, I guess they wouldn't be
able to play each other in the first round, right?
I don't know. It's so fluid in the AFC.
Yeah we're not pretty going at fifth draft.
That's going to be a real shame. And Josh Johnson is starting
next week. Yeah.
Hmm. But but I do, I mean, yeah, the
the Waterpik stuff because you can see it paying off, but it's
just like harder too. Harder to know. yeah, it's just
like any of the good pics there were so far down and like I
don't see any names here that have gone yet that I was like oh
I wish we took him instead of waddle like Nixon Debo like none
of these other guys make sense or I guess we could have gone
Goddard but then like there was no other Philadelphia guys to
pair him with really right like Yeah, I don't know.
Also, I will point a waddle, I don't know, fuck Gallop.
When that's annoying. What'll did leave with an injury
last week to, right? Yeah, he's kind of dinged up
though. I don't think it's the type of
thing that would affect a playoff run.
So I think we should when we could go on Mackenzie We could
also go with another Buccaneer or or Schultz.
Do you want to grab Mackenzie here this pretty bored
Singletary. I kind of like getting a tattoo
from a guy and then we get her pick of the Buffalo running back
just to get a running back with Joshua Allen, okay?
You want to do Mike Evans? Yeah, I like my cabins.
All right? Because I think there is about
like I think we should get a buffalo running back here
because that way, we're like guaranteeing to at least have
like one running back squat in the Super Bowl of the bills.
Make it right. That's smart, huh?
That gives us some flexibility. We're like, we don't need to get
A Tampa Bay, running back. If we get boxed out or something
like that. Do you have a preference between
them? I'll go cook.
Yeah, it's just more fun. And I don't know, like, I just
think they're content. Like I think in the playoffs,
Things just seem to be trending. The direction that would go
cockle. I think it's definitely a
toss-up but nothing my ATP here to get Singletary at a pic. 38
is got 22.7 ATP. Does that does that factor in
for you at all? It's a market efficient.
I don't think the markets efficient remotely.
What do you would you be cook or Singletary?
I mean, Cooks way more fun. Yeah.
I think simply cannot Market. You don't know any of the
market, the market stop. I think, I don't think the
markets Tom, but I do think ATP takes a little while to like
there's not a huge volume of drafts all rise.
Like, I think I think it's a pretty justifiable pick.
It may just be me doubling down on what I did this summer, which
was take zero Singletary and take only cook and that has
blown up in my face, but maybe, maybe not, Maybe, not, maybe it
hasn't. You just got Advanced the teams
with cook with other players and all the sudden you get to be
like, I got a lone guy, dude. This is the, I have a team.
One of my redacted teams that I have checked occasionally, and I
took cook over moderate Stevenson in that League.
It's pretty early journalism. Yeah.
But It's in first place. And I'm like, maybe that was
genius. That was actually you.
Yeah. That was always the thesis of
the play that you knew cook would be a bad pick.
Another picks were so good. I should make a bad pick here.
I'll take off on a bit of a rant, but I've seen all like
best of all guys here and Twitter being like guys.
Like you should actually like not be excited about the high
Advance rate players like he had low and it's bad if you have
Jacobs. Yeah, it's bad.
If you have all the good players don't like, okay.
Ali, I get it but like how is it actionable guys?
Like how are you? How are you, predicting the low
Advance rate players? Like like if anyone can tell me
how to how to do that? Then like yeah it's just seems
like a ridiculous. Yeah, it's a bit, isn't it?
All right. I think we have an easy pick if
it gets to us. Yeah, I did too.
And then oh sorry. I keep forgetting to put the
drop or back on. Sorry.
Viewers We got Jake Schultz,
right? Is that everything I think
Schulz is kind of a no-brainer? Yeah.
I think Dallas. Yeah, that's like the most
likely Super Bowl scenario. We have an NFC going.
No, we're live for two different.
Super Bowls. yep, and then let's say I'm going to go back to
here, so we could go knocks, we could go Rashad White, I think
probably done on Dallas. Dallas is tough.
What are the quarterbacks that are left just thinking about?
Oh, that's a good point. So Gino is our last chance at
the quarterback but like, wait, what are the Seahawks odds of
making it? It's not even guaranteed.
Oh, it's 80%. I think we should go with white
or fournette here and then if Gino is available for us in the
very last round, I would consider it, but I like locking
up another tip. What about what about Knox is
that? Hold any.
We have. We already have two bills but
they'll be a third. Via forthright way.
We have three. Do we?
We have Davis gave. Oh, sorry.
You mean plus Allen? Yeah.
I would go, I would go white, but Knox is fine.
Alright we got white couldn't find a second.
I started to panic. Getting out of drafted, George
get a little bit, pretty brutal. Pretty bad way to end this team.
We have to take Josh Johnson and this expect to just, oh God.
All right. So I think we could go Gino here
and we could go I think at this point we didn't get Gino.
I would say Knox, but we'll see. Yeah it's Knox is available.
I'm not even I don't know knocks first you know.
No I'd be Gino to but I think we have I'd be knocks over the rest
of the yeah I mean trencher field just one.
So yeah like that who would the Dallas pick be?
Would it be? I guess would be Noah brown or
brown Washington? The.
Other, like at Tampa, I guess you could go Julio for not, but
that seems like kind of gross. Yeah, I think we have to we
couldn't go for that. We have to kind of make that bad
but Julio I guess would be in play.
Although then it's like, we should probably have Brady.
Yeah, maybe a huge Deck with enough.
On the books. The thing about Tampa that's
great is like they have such a good chance of hosting a
first-round playoff game at this point that like I think you can
feel even though the team's not great, I feel pretty good about
like their chances of getting two games in the playoffs.
Just because that home playoff game, I guess it would be
against Dallas, which is maybe something that we fucked up.
All right, so we're on the clock.
So not so the decision point is knocks and we play for the
bills, not to get the by the team's basically dead if it does
or Gino because the bills are going to get the by.
But then the, that gives the bills better odds of making the
Super Bowl, which is what we need to happen.
I think we should go knocks because I'm pretty if I'm
thinking about this, right? I'm pretty sure like we stacked
up Dallas and Tampa Bay, which is actually maybe kind of Dumb.
Right? Because if Tampa Bay wins their
division and Dallas is the best wild card team, that means they
play around one. Oh yeah, that's bad.
So I'm saying because we, because we did that, we want to
like maximize the number of players we have laughed in
future rounds, which I think leads us to knocks over G.
No. But that sounds nice when the
NFC East. Yeah.
Or San Francisco needs to
Crater. So that, I mean I really need a
greater. Let's do, let's do another one
of these before I call it. Yeah, yeah.
It's not really good to end the draft with that was, that was
pretty dumb, so, one half of your team.
Oh, F of Doom was saying, that's what I was trying to say.
Yeah, all right. Well, you know what?
We learn by doing on this trip, on this show, we learn by doing
well. Your husband's to do, is stack
up, two teams have played each other round 1.
Now we have Actually to this Ridge, actually it sort of like
a teaching moment for all of you guys.
Yeah yeah you guys know. Yeah, I do remember though like
like so the Cowboys still have a 21 percent chance of winning
their division. Like I remember last year trying
to do all this like mapping out of what teams are going to play.
What? There's four weeks left, are not
five weeks left in the regular season.
Like there's gonna be so much chaos that like getting 2 micro
about being like, oh, this seems going to play that team like it.
It's a lot as up in flux, I probably would try to stay away
from like Dallas, Tampa Bay Stacks because of like the you
know more than likely chance are going to play each other but
it's where I don't think it really matters that much that's
probably only one the one that we just did.
Yeah, that's the only thing. She literally only thing to
avoid is what we just did. We gotta, we gotta headline for
our show, at least the one thing to not do, don't don't.
Yeah, the one mistake not to make.
Yeah, there you go. This will be 0.
We are going to sell the chance that one of the quarterbacks
thought maybe. Justin Jefferson.
That's an interesting one. All right.
Jill hurts. Yeah, I think it's, I think not
ever thinking that one. Makes sense.
Yeah. Get yourself some Philly.
Getting hurts for is kind of nice.
Yeah, a little easier build with them.
Yep. And then, what are you?
So okay. obviously, if we have a chance to stack a stack in, but
We don't have a chance to do that because I'd your brown,
just went. Yeah. so I feel like a fc wide
receiver makes sense and we've got a bunch of dudes to pick
from Yep. Level on options.
I think Kelsey is going to go. He would be the I think
no-brainer if he's available but then after that it's like a
bunch of guys that we can go with.
What are? What are the?
What's Miami's odds of making a Super Bowl?
They're lower than the Bangles considerably.
So, probably go Jamar. I would I would strongly and Jim
are here. Over Tyreke.
I think that's I think like that.
There's this anchoring effect in these atp's for the Bengals were
also low when they like we're 50/50 and even make the playoffs
and it just hasn't caught up yet like mix in is way too low in
these things still Cincinnati Cincinnati looks really good.
Yeah. There are and the coaching is
better than I thought. They'd be yeah see yeah, see
this is like CMC. You're going to there's value in
doing these drafts now while the SFA DPS or way up there like
McCaffrey and the second round. I'm sorry for whoever's with you
know over this is watching this but I think that's just like an
unjustifiable pick, you did. I thought maybe you were gonna
kind of like there. I'm sorry, you might be watching
but you're a fucking woman. Actually, I changed the name of
the YouTube. The two things to not do an
underdog. Yeah we only made one of them.
It's just like their path of the Super Bowl, is so thin now with
property that like you're taking player in the second round, he
was like, so likely to not make it far in the playoffs like
you're just gonna lose. I think I've with you.
I agree. Sorry.
Sorry to listeners. If you think like a free You can
rip us in the chat for what we did in our last.
Yea, we are, we made an unjustifiable draft.
That's only one thing you're doing.
All right, all right. What are we doing here?
We got, I think maybe we could do go Devonte, we could go
Higgins. We got Mi centers there to could
also go bro. We probably need another
quarterback. I know, I just made fun of Jake
for. Yeah.
I wouldn't. We just don't think I could core
of I'd be between Sanders Hagen's or devaugntah.
I kind of like Sanders just for the running back points like
yeah. Scarcity argument.
Let's do Sanders. I just really like the
quarterback running backs tax in these way more than I do and
like a traditional format just because like those are kind of
the two scarce positions in a way.
And if you're just like if the yields are making the Super
Bowl, like I think a Sanders team like I don't know, just in
the weeks for at heart hurts like doesn't have a massive
game. Like Sanderson really help you,
I don't know. The Eagles are also.
So willing to shift their approach like maybe more than
any other team in the league though.
Play the match up so you could have and we're going to be
drafting a second quarter back here.
Anyway, yeah. So we could think it makes
sense. So we still have a choice of
green tea and Devon Tahir. I think I'm Devon te Yeah, I
think AB to right, get the stack now with that, probably we're
probably done on the Eagles. I think we have to be done,
which is yeah, this is a very high value stack that we're
getting Are you are you having second thoughts?
No. I like to Malta.
Okay, yeah. The got like I was going to say
like we forgot her but the Goddard injury thing kind of
scares me a little bit and I think like, devaugntah I don't
know like the vodka and AJ, Brown has been a lot closer than
I thought it was going to be this year.
Like, obviously AJ Brown, it's still like the alpha, but it's
kind of like Trying to think of a good compare.
It's a little bit like the Jamar Higgins thing where I think like
it is a bit Smith can be the Higgins and have like a massive
weak. Like he showed that this year a
little bit, you know, like that. Calm.
Yeah. All right, I feel like there's
two really strong pick and goes mixing with, so I was gonna say,
yeah, that would've been good. What about Baroque here?
We're now applying force in see Philly Super Bowl.
I like we're all here. We need to get a second
quarterback, kind of you get a second quarterback and it's not
like there's not an obvious if like mixing was still there then
I would definitely be mixing. But if without another obvious
next pick you like Yeah, we're kind of picking a second AFC
team or tacking on gutter, but we can't really afford attack on
God. I don't think it's gonna buy
they're getting the B. Yeah, 76 percent chance.
Yeah. I mean like there's there
obviously is the universe where the Cowboys or the Vikings get
the by interesting 5:30. It actually has a cowboy's as a
higher chance of getting the bottom, the Vikings do.
I guess it's because they play the Eagles head to head once in
their lives better. Yeah.
They're just really good there. Yeah.
And they're better that deal. Yeah.
But the record is like the point being the Cowboys record is 9
and 3 in the Vikings are 10 and 2 so just thought was
interesting. The model says they have a
higher chance again the by even with like the actual Extra game
they have to make up, but okay. Should we go Baltimore and get
the other AFC team? That's kind of was thinking?
Yeah, we can get Andrews here. Get are no other AFC team here.
I like that and then we can tack on I guess we could go NFC as
well because we do have a bro Chase.
So why not? I kind of like Andrews over
Godwin. Yeah let's do it.
Let's we talked about Baltimore to start the show.
Tampa Bay looks so weak they do. Baltimore looks I mean the Vault
or just barely beat the Broncos. So I'm not that fired up.
That's true too. But the park is actually at
least have a good defense. They did all the Getty fancy, I
maybe maybe Dobbins, maybe diamonds, it is so funny that if
the Broncos just had like If they had like Detroit, I'm
trying to think of like an average offense, like Detroit's
even maybe better than average like if the Broncos would like
the Jags offense, I think they would be like a team for this
year. Yeah.
They would be it.
Fizzes Jack. That's a good.
That's a good one, because the Jags defense is so bad as well.
Like, what do they have? The Raiders offense?
Would they like my people died? And three, they might be like,
that'd be like the Vikings like level.
Yeah. That's right.
That's essentially what the fuck?
Things are yeah although they did.
I mean they don't even have the I mean the Vikings defense is
much worse than the Broncos. Yeah.
The Broncos defense man. What a wasted year.
All right. What do we got?
What do we looking for? We're looking for some Ravens,
some Bangles. Not a ton, I guess.
I like I guess I would like Boyd here.
It's a I don't think we ATP matters that much that just feel
out of the teams we have that feels like the best player
available. Yeah we're making a big bet on
the Bengals. Yeah.
Yeah, that feels It Feels. Alright to me.
Like the other players I'm thinking about not too.
So we get sniped later would be like for the teams we have, like
Dobbins, I think, is in play later.
I think perine is actually even potentially in play later.
That's an interesting thought. Yeah.
Just as like a guy that could get us seven points in a week at
the Bangles Advance. Plus the contingent upside like
no one's taking pure on in this format which I think is somewhat
interesting. We know his role is like,
massive. If something happened to Nixon,
We probably could go with like an NFC extra piece, which I
guess would be Berkeley, but I don't love that, I don't love
that either. If we're going to go to like
random NFC running back, I would probably go back to like the
Leonard fournette, or Rashad white.
Well, before I went with Berkeley on about Walker.
Yeah. Yeah.
Our Walker Walker, is a good one. actually, I like I don't
hit Walker here is just a way to get running back points and help
us Advance because I think the other guys be like, like Dobbins
and perine and stuff we can get later.
I like Walker or like white here.
I think would be my two guys. Let's go Walker.
Yeah, I feel like we've done a lot of Tampa Bay.
Yeah. Yeah.
All right. I like that.
Then we could maybe go through running back I guess.
I mean, at this point we could eat like lock, it wouldn't be a
horrible pick either because we know that's, that's an
interesting thought we would. Technically be in play for a
Cincinnati, Seattle, Subaru, rule.
We need things to break right here with like who plays.
Whoo but we're still limiting 24 teams which I think.
Yeah, I think it's fine Seattle would be yeah, I don't know.
Predicting Seattle seat is really tough right now.
They can be they could win the division now with pretty in it.
And for the 49ers, they could also be Wild card team.
That's a tough one to predict. So we could go Dobbins here or
we could go lock it here. I would rather play that.
I would go lock it. Just for the I just like to put
like the the points that lock it yet.
That's and I think we can just like that he's gonna wildly
outscore balance. It seems like a fair reason to.
Yeah because if we get slapped on Dobbins like gossip I don't
know. It's got said words that differ
from a pic from Dobbins or is pure on that much different with
pick. I think like I think we should
take a running back here like I like Dobbins the most but I'm
okay with one of those two other guys I think.
P Ron's interesting because like we did a one-off Andrews witch.
He's, he's just he's Andrews, like it kind of makes sense.
You know? If they play two or three games,
like he could be awesome. Yeah.
But that doesn't necessarily mean.
We need to make this big bet on. Baltimore, especially since we
already have burrow. So yeah, maybe adding we have
Boyd. So maybe PR on.
Would voters, not yet? To your point, is it?
I guess like the math only works for a filly Baltimore Super
Bowl. If we take another Baltimore
player here, right? Because if we want to keep that
outcome in play, where it can be Philly Baltimore and we have
five players in the finals. We need to take a Baltimore
player here. I think we're dead if it's
filling Baltimore, right? Like, we're we have burrow Chase
and boy. But if it's still a quality, or
do we have? Like, and and hurts as it gets
right back, we have hurts. Yeah, they've heard Sanders,
devaugntah and Andrews. Like, I don't think that's
crazy. What it would be in play for,
all right. Maybe Dobbins is the move.
Yeah. Because like yeah, there could
be aware like a fault more. Makes the Super Bowl there.
Probably like doing it and kind of a gross way.
That's just a ton of Andrews points and not much else but
you'd still would want like some player to get you points in the
finals, which could be Dobbins. Yeah, Ryan is saying since the
in Baltimore pretty unlikely to play each other.
So that makes diamonds more interesting, makes sense, I
trust Justin. All right, so I feel like we did
this one. This one was better.
This one was not a mistake that you must avoid this.
That's wise step. I like, no.
This one's it. Because if we have We could be a
sin. See we have four Super Bowls.
I think that all work like we call you four Super Bowls.
Yeah which is kind of interesting.
I think so. Now and we need to run hot.
Obviously, these four teams need to advance.
We basically need to run hot to wear.
These teams are actually in line to play each other and then do
play each other in the championship games.
Now we're at work. We're cooking here.
Yeah. Brian says both Ravens and
Bengals. Have tiebreaker over Titans for
what would be the 3 verse 4 seed?
So wow, Ryan already knows his play at I register 3.
Verse or see? That's pretty impressive.
I need to get on that level. I wonder why the Bengals beat
the Titans I think is that that must be what it is, the Bangles
and Ravens, both would be in the Titans.
I'm guessing, I don't know. Yes, and let's see.
All right, so this one. Yeah, this is our the one,
right? Yeah.
Yeah, I like this team is fun. I like it.
What's taking this? Do you want to say?
It's gonna look a lot better than we're screenshot.
In this team that want to thank this one.
I got I did before the week and I just like when I was like, I'm
going hurts, one solo quarterback and then then they
won in big and huge fashion and now it seems dead, but, uh,
yeah, kind of fun team. Yeah.
Yeah, you never know I'm betting, you never know, come on
down that team, that was fun. All right, well, so did for
these drafts. Their fun would recommend.
Cool. Well, that was a lot of fun.
Fun path. Thanks for, for hopping on.
I know, obviously you guys will be doing ship chasing tomorrow
night. What what are we talking about?
Playoffs scenarios for the teams or what are we doing there?
Talking playoffs? Yeah, we're going to be probably
without Pete, I would assume I've not heard any news but yeah
we'll assume no peak tomorrow but Still swing by check this
out. We'll have be doing shell,
awesome sounds good. And yeah, like I mentioned the
top, you can follow me at Sherman F, FB for all the
charts, I'll post the playoff charts.
I showed quickly, as well as the normal weekly statutes in
charts. But, but yeah, go have fun in
trap. Some of these classical teams
and good luck to everybody in the fantasy playoffs this week.
We'll see you all next week. Week.