Hi guys, Wildcard Weekend in the book.
Time to flip over the cards. Look at these FPC ownership
projections. Look at some of our favorite
teams. You guys can tell us what sweat
you have going on. Unless they involve rock pretty,
in which case we don't want to fucking hear about it, it shift
chasing. Let's do it.
Friar homos. Anita hand handjob exercises
Jamar. Good evening, gentlemen.
How are we doing? How was your wild card weekends?
Good one sweating, this one. Yeah, yeah, I did Target on.
So we have our group chat for these stuff that I made.
Leo D was slicing and dicing the data every which way possible
Gretch, you were poured through it.
I don't know, Pat was counting his money somewhere.
I was doing something with daughter of a moment of this
where you guys were like, tilting something on the Jags
game, which I didn't watch in real time.
I went out, Britain, I went out to dinner Saturday night and I
hate. This is like New York.
This is like a kind of a unbelievable thing in New York,
we were looking to see about maybe getting a king bed, which
is in New York, he's just not done.
He was, you can't, you can't live in a space big enough.
So we're like, you know what? Let's think about it.
So as you guys were like, tilting, some Jaguars, something
or other I was, I was laying in the king bed.
Yeah. Pads getting like different
Sleep, Number levels. Like you guys would think that
he wouldn't change, you know, but it's weird like the Chad
different, you know, the rest of us kind of stuff.
Stuff, passionately panting, king bed.
He's done this thing in our chat, where every time we
comments like money, just flutters on the page.
Yeah, I bought I bought the Discord Nitro that it's just so
excited, flying everywhere. The best thing though is Pat, if
like you are just staying in your apartment but getting a
king bed and so it's just like the old couple from Willy Wonka
and the Chocolate Factory, where their beds, just like in the
living room. Feel like that's that's what it
is. It's not?
Yeah, it's not opulent by any other standard.
Nerd than Brooklyn standards. Exactly, but it was very, very
fun sweating the games. I feel like the FPC sweat the
way it works to and how it's like such this slow methodical
burn over three days. Like it in you're constantly
adjusting what you need going into each one.
We have the times you don't know what you we don't know.
Yeah I mean the own he's like doing intense data analytics.
Odd on our teams at everything here that It's pretty amazing.
I was like tell us what our sweaters and he's like, honestly
I don't know. This would be good for sub,
Jesus is good for other. So the only found how to get
Excel to like some colors, which I didn't even think was
possible. Oh yeah.
These are cheap. Constantly becomes more and more
of a freak in the sheets as we get in this contest.
Where do we, where do we lose it at him was when, because he had
this color tearing for in our spreadsheet where we have our
teams were green as Obviously good out.
Come for us. Yellow was like, orange was more
ambiguous and then read was a bad outcome for us.
Who did he want to give red? And we were revolting against
it. What it was that you wanted to
get Tucker orange? He wanted to give Myers red fire
like we're like give him orange given Warren as they lost.
He didn't like our subjective. Bumping up of his arbitrary
color coding, but I would say, overall for us, we did not hit.
The nuts over the Wildcard Weekend but we have a ton of
teams that are live and overall. What do we end up with five in
the top 50 right now? Six in the top 100 for on the
tonic seven of the top hundred and seven top country think so.
But a lot of those are. So we plant enough that we've
played a lot of different scenarios, a lot of those are
playing Casey and Philadelphia Fades, which obviously everybody
at this moment in time seems like that's a ridiculous thing.
Why did you do that? I mean last year that the
Packers and Titans both lost in there.
First game, they were weaker one seeds, but we only played a few
of those. It just so happened.
That the ones that we played, those are probably the ones were
more likely to be on like the metcalf's and obviously you get
more. Yeah, I mean playing in wildcard
weekend when you're fading the themes around playing.
Yeah, well really good tubes of those.
We had less Seattle fade on a lot of those teams, so it's like
obviously then who someone else has to be the fade.
So it would stand to reason that some of those will have an
unconventional fade because we did include some unconventional
things. Right.
What would the nuts for people who were you know, kind of
loosely following? I mean Metcalf became the dots
we talked all about playing even in it like a shirred loss.
Playing the good skill position, players on Or steams Metcalfe
comes in at three point. Eight percent has a thirty five
point game in the first game of the weekend, it was already
clear. He was going to basically be one
of the top two of the six losing teams.
We talked about how it was going to be too skilled players.
So he was kind of the nuts. Hawkinson became a huge play as
leverage on Jefferson who was chalk and the sake.
One Hawkinson combo that we talked about a ton Pete, you
love that you didn't want to do say corn and Jefferson that
became a huge one. We also talked about playing the
Giants receivers in the jig's receivers and having Any of the
Jags receivers and not etn. I think was the other, like,
third key. If you had all three of those
things, the Hawks, a quad-core, Larry the Jegs receivers, and
kind of, you would want that to be with a soft fate of the of
the charger because Eckler, and Keenan really weren't good
enough and lost and the kicker and you were actually great.
So you have that back and forth in that game and then Metcalf
with a with a 49er skill player, not a you know a Seahawks fate
that's like the nuts right now and I don't think anyone has in
the hole. As we were really close to it
and the my big takeaway and we pushed ourselves further in this
direction every year and it's still really hard to do.
It's a classic gpp principle but it's defensive scoring and
kicker in this are so Random. There's still no respectability,
it does not matter, what the spread is, it doesn't matter
what the implied team total is, it is all fucking random, and
the fact that we don't have more of the Dolphins D is, probably
one of my biggest regrets. Threats in our portfolio, me
too. And it's something that I think
comes down a little bit to preparation, we made all the
teams Friday night and Saturday morning.
And, you know, we talked about to be that's a fun part of it
for me. But I think what we decided is
that we are going to make teams next year and not include
defense and kicker at all. We're just going to pick for
Fades and then we're going to randomize the defense and
kicker, right? Yeah.
I mean, all randomization what's really fascinating about I dug
into the ownership a little bit and I know we said we're going
to talk about it. So yeah, the two biggest
takeaways for me, the first one was total tightened.
Ownership was 136, it has to be over a hundred percent because
you have to play tight end. That means at Max, 36% of the
teams were flexing one tight end, which obviously some were
flexing multiple, it's more probably like, 25 percent of the
teams or flexing, a tight end. There's four Flex spots.
I might even be lower and it's tight ends ended up being really
hits tied in premium Hawkinson. Schultz.
Ingram, there's several of these like very viable tight ends as
pivots that nobody wanted to play.
That was one of my biggest ownership turquoise.
The other was what you guys are just talking about you if you
sort by like kicker and defense, there are in the 200 dollar
their 60 fences. There were eight point seven
five percent or more and then no other defense has more than two
point seven, six percent. So there's this massive gap
between see down there on the bottom.
The top six, go down from 20 47 percent is Jacksonville, done to
8.75. There's big gap down of 2.76.
The reason that's notable you look at kicker same thing, top
six, go down to six point nine, eight percent.
And then there's this huge gap down to two point.
One, four percent that 6 on both kicker, and D is exact.
Same six teams. Seattle, Dallas, Baltimore,
Tampa Jacksonville and the Giants.
There were 18 teams that had a cumulative, soft fate, kicker
and D of 5% or less. There were six teams that were
like, essentially 20% or more, I don't know.
If all of them had exactly 20, a lot of them hit 30 or 40
Baltimore has the 43% kicker on the twenty percent D and also a
bunch of hard Fates their entire skill position group was played
at like 13 percent. I mean, that's just too
complicated you concentrated on which we purchase that's
something that I predicted I had 88 percent total fade for
Baltimore and you you mentioned what?
So 12%. I think my prediction.
I think that's what it was. So I hit that dead-on but and I
said this on Friday show. I was like the thing I'm going
to mess up the most on is hard favor sticker versus d.
That's me. The hardest for me to nail
because that will probably and you guys you guys nailed it, you
said it was going Tucker. The whole way I thought Tucker
might be one of these like all the guys will play Tucker, I'm
not playing, but everyone else will but everyone else did,
everyone was right about that. I mean what do you what do you
think inefficient world the kicker ownership.
It should probably be similar to the defense where Has no one
over twenty percent, right? Like Tucker at 42% is just
massively is insane. And what's fascinating about
that is they people were playing Baltimore to lose.
Obviously when they're softening them and hard fighting with
that, that degree. And I said there's a teams that
weren't touched the five best teams weren't touching.
You can understand that Kansas City, Buffalo, Cincinnati,
Philly, and San Francisco people didn't want us off a door, hard
fade, those teams it makes sense.
The other three teams is where I have a really hard time with it.
The Giants end up winning, so it doesn't really matter.
Better. But they're a team that you
could have easily Justified soft fading in the same way you
Justified it with Baltimore, if you're playing them to lose, is
what we talked about on the show all last week.
They end up winning, but people wanted to play them because I
want to put Berkeley same thing with the Chargers, it's because
people wanted to play Eckler, same thing with the other team
that wasn't soft faded. Enough was the Dolphins because
people, I think people wanted a hard fade them so bad, but
you're playing these teams to lose.
Seattle, got soft, fated. A really high rate in Miami
didn't but both you know both our teams that people are
playing to Toulouse and that just doesn't make any sense to
me. Right.
Like and especially the Chargers and Giants or sorry, the Giants
were hard faded a lot. I don't know who I'm forgetting
here but there's a there was an airsoft, fated a lot but there's
a team that was soft fated not very much.
Is it the Jags? Was it that was in the box.
Miami, the Chargers know, Minnesota was a third one minute
because people want to play Jefferson.
So it is a Jefferson Eckler thing.
And we talked about this, if you play those teams to lose, you
can differentiate a ton bi bi bi willing by being willing to pick
them to fail. You can differentiate it was
massive just by differentiating by putting in their kicker or
their D. It would have been, I mean, it
was a home run for the Chargers, it wasn't such a home run for
the way that the Vikings kicker and D score but say anything
Differentiate in thinking through that scenario from like
a process standpoint where we went wrong on some of those is
like so we would, you know, build-out teams based on like
bracket scenarios. And, you know, say if you're
fading like Buffalo, like you don't have buffalo in the final
four, my first thing, when I would build those, I'd go put in
a Tyreke, you know, or maybe a kicker, but I would.
So my went my way to level, it was all play the team because
we're fading Buffalo as opposed to thinking about the soffit.
And then with the Chargers 12, how we didn't end up on maybe as
enough, you know, Chargers defense that we wanted.
It was like all play Keenan instead of Eckler because he's
such a sick, leverage play on that and not like your your
thought is directionally accurate.
You're just not getting to the next level of realizing, it's
randomized. Really, what you want, right
accomplished after fading, the top guy as much?
I guess, my big thing is, as much as we talked about how
there's gonna be six teams that lose and the top two losing
skill players. It could be a lot of guys.
It could be Tyreke. We played a lot of and It could
be DK. I think I'd end up being
probably decaying metka and Hawkinson who were like the two
that you'd love to have out of the losers as the skill players
in your lineup. But the point is why would
ownership be so condensed on like Jefferson and Eckler are
superstars. Right.
Their first-round picks if we're drafting for a full season right
now, but we're talking about a one-game sample and in a loss
and typically in a loss the team's not succeeding their part
of the reason the Vikings lost is the Giants.
Bracketed Jefferson all game. And let Hawkinson sort of roam
free. They had a safety overall game.
If you want anyone who does the X's and O's stuff, it wasn't
their whole defense of scheme was built around stopping
Jefferson. He had a bunch of short
catchers, but nothing down the field.
I mean, that's for of his targets of were in the for on
the first drive and then they basically went elsewhere after
us. Yeah.
And so, if you know that your pic, if you're willing to pick
the Vikings to lose, I mean the pivots are Hawkinson worked
really well with the Vikings the pivot to Kenan didn't work for
the Chargers but This idea of the gap between the, the soft
Fades being 20 plus percent for six of these teams and 5% in
lower from the other 18th, just a massive and inefficiency,
especially when three of those teams were in coin flip games,
right? That's the main point of trying
to drive home Minnesota. Chargers Dolphins, were in a
coin flip. They were like a heavy under
bright for, the should have been soft faded, but three of those
teams easy to pick as losses and still got like no soft fade
love. So from as infield perspective,
massive inefficiency and if you wanted to make a simple
heuristic of how to apply this going forward, I think you could
generally say and obviously there's going to be exceptions
if you have a portfolio, you want to manage this but teams
that people are games that people want to play, both ways,
say the Chargers in Jag say the boxing Cowboys.
The soft fade is going to be way under utilized because people
want to play the stud win-win. There's chalk condensing.
The soft fade is such a smash play because people love the
idea of saying I get the studs the superstars and whoever
advances I still get them and I could think the points from a
shootout game and then everyone overlooks the soft fade so
you're saying. Yeah.
So that would be like because what's interesting is with the
Seattle version of this that didn't happen, because right, or
the Tampa Bay, Dallas both side. Was that one right there wasn't
one clear guy on Seattle. I think this is why He came in
so low is because it's like Jefferson Tyreke Andrews.
I'm well, intern actually an interesting Counterpoint to this
because Tucker got played. See and if we had Tucker at the
correct ownership projection, not saying you could have
identified that then I think it would have fallen in that
bucket. So I'm saying like, if let's
let's even try to narrow in on it more and again, I know I'm
setting an arbitrary number but let's say, like over 50% like of
a player on a team that is, in a game that people want to play
both ways like soft fading, that chalk, Back is really, really
smart. Yeah, yeah.
Especially the when I think the key for me was that it's chalk
that there's a the Eckler or Jefferson in the game because, I
mean, Dallas in Tampa still boat on both sides to still both
wound up being soft faded a in the upper group in the 20%, plus
group, and Seattle did too, but not Miami as the 27 seeds that
didn't really have a shot. Is this guy was weird how it
condensed. I mean, So I'm wishing you that
in advance. That's obviously like really
like not something Pat, you do the ownership projections not
something I think we could project.
It's such a significant gap between 16 s getting soft faded
and A team's not being saw faded at all.
Yeah 77% of the field, hard faded the Dolphins.
That's Christmas. Pretty, that's pretty crazy.
It just adds, yeah, because Tyreke was forked in 15% of.
That was Tyreke. But so.
And what's so crazy about that is less than 5% sulfated.
Um, if you're gonna fade them, you can just throw their kicker.
Indian, the biggest reason, we're driving this home is the
Chargers in the Dolphins, both their kickers and defenses were
great. The Chargers have the four
picks. The Dolphins, had a defensive
touchdown. Both kickers, made a bunch of
field goals. They were huge, leverage points.
All at sub 3 percent, loan ownership that kickers in the
He's on both teams, no one played them and you could have
gotten so far ahead, 77% of people hard fate in Miami.
If you just had the balls to put that their kicker or their
defense in and say hey maybe something fluky will happen.
It's not even that ballsy. You want you want your sulfates
to lose, so it's not really even you're not actually taking a
stand. That's kind of the crazy.
This kind of why we love is torn it, right?
Like we just started, like we didn't realize how Ed how big
this Edge was, but it's a pretty massive Edge or like, you don't
even Take a stand. You just have to like, just like
flip a coin, flip a coin on it. Like flip coins on your soft
baits. And hard fans are going to be.
We just need to randomize it and that's a good point to Pat.
When you think about it, I think people think I will win this
contest from my skill position players that go far, but you're
also trying to hit the nuts at kicker and defense on teams that
you think your are going to lose.
Yes, if you're building a bracket, that narrows it down to
four teams, and everyone thought the Dolphins were going to Lose.
So you had a chance to hit the nuts on one of the four teams
that fit that criteria for helping.
You hit the nuts and did loot lose what you want it.
Yeah, yeah. And I stone nuts where the Miami
defense, the one team everyone thought was not going to make it
out. That's the teen you play anchor
and the thing I'll emphasize as well.
I mean I can understand it a little bit on the kicker.
If you thought like the Dolphins just can score points.
Although what I would argue is that's what makes taught and I
think you guys will agree, what that's what makes Tucker's
percentage, so crazy really low game.
Total they were big underdogs. I think they had the lowest team
total in the week, they had to have right there.
Were nine point dogs in a 40-point over-under, maybe Miami
was down there with him, but really low.
Implied team total, they weren't expected to score a lot of
points in this game. And, you know, if you're the
team's out of touch of score points, I can understand being
afraid of the kicker, right? Especially after going to Trail,
they end up going for it on Fourth Downs, etcetera, Tucker
didn't really score. A lot of points.
Don't understand this, 43% at all.
But the way the ffp, CD defense scoring works.
And we've talked about this, this on her season-long teams a
ton points against like, basically doesn't matter it.
All comes down to turnovers sacks touchdowns fluky plates,
right? Like in a scenario where you're
talking about six different losing teams, you want to know
which of these losing teams, created the most turnovers and
have the most tax. Generally, none of them are
going to do particularly well defensively.
You're kind of just saying who's going to have the fumble strip,
fumble touchdown which can be anyone.
Obviously the Dolphins prove that they strip Josh Allen and
got a fumble return for a TV but like All the, when all the
scoring for DST is so, so randomized around like one crazy
play. I mean, yeah.
Flip a coin like totally just flip a coin.
Yeah, and I the, the reason we're worked up is because we
knew this stuff heading into the contest and then didn't get all
the way over worked with her. Sweet.
Yeah. Well, things are saying, yeah
enough. And I think that's how it
happens, right? It's because when you, when you
build teams, it's like you're telling yourself a story and
you're like, you know, the story you're often telling yourself is
one In which Buffalo rolls and you know, it's like I need I've
got a Josh down team. I don't even want this to be a
game. I just, you know, I want Buffalo
to be awesome. And so, I'm not going to pick
Dolphins d, right? Yeah, go.
I'm gonna pick, you know, that whoever else day, I'll pick the
Bucks day because I'm picking the Cowboys to win.
So I picked the Bucks the, you know, it's just like what you
tell it, but we're all going to tell ourselves similar stories.
When we do it that way, of course.
And you see it in the chat. You said it says felt bad to
play fins D and Josh Allen together.
Absolutely, Kev says, Tucker's to best games this year were
verse Cincinnati. We tailed Ourselves the stories
that make us feel comfy, but at the end of the day it's fucking
random with these position saying buffaloes also.
Well, guess what? Leah Miami their kicker and
their D where the or the nuts like it's still, you know what I
mean? A small here.
I think has the best thing. You can take a stand without
taking a stands. A great way to phrase it.
I don't know if one of us are that are he's saying it it's a
great way of hug. Yeah.
You said that? Yeah, nice.
That's I mean, that's a great way of putting it.
You can take a stand without taking a stance like what you
didn't even have to bet on Miami.
If you're already hard fading, I'm just throw their kicker in
order. So there t in this Dynamic.
Again is why this contest? There's such a big Edge, right?
Because most people are tossing in one to two lineups, and it
does not feel good. Putting the Miami Dolphins in
that lineup in the, I would say compared to say, like the
DraftKings Milly maker or a lot of these things where there are
a ton of hundred fifty Mac sirs, the amount of Team people users
building less than five teams probably represents like, 95 96
97 % of the contest and those guys aren't Getting to those
harder saw Fates, harder hard Fades and it provides such an
edge. If you're willing to plug your
nose and get there, Chat wants to know what I'm chewing.
It's a, it was gum. Look at this a reformed man.
I'm still, I'm still on it. He said it better because I
said, I quit shooting them. It's just the guy like the
chats, keeping you honest. Yeah, I know.
I like that to give a Wednesday check in to see if they're used
to be the sports writer used to write for Deadspin, Drew magary.
And he used to do this thing where every day.
He would post his weight on Twitter and it was like the
ultimate accountability thing where people be like, dude, you
gained a pound and a half, like, what's going on?
Every day's like, I've just committed to post it by weight
on Twitter. And that kind of feedback loop
kept a bit check. So there you go.
You got ship chasing, keeping the chew out of beds mouth.
You pick Twitter to do that on. Yeah and I realize yes and get
here saying that I'm turning my back on mr.
Ave Maria himself. I be like I told I knew that
boomers are going to love to click that guy.
I just do a right man. All right.
So let's talk about a couple of our teams that are favorites
because like you said, a lot of the teams at the top of the
leaderboard right now they're there because they are hard
faded. The Casey top five still
business or top three teams or something faded.
Both Casey and Philly, the best team is probably tied in 7th
right now. There's a Teen Titan 7 that does
have sort of the best like combination of what you could
have done a Wildcard Weekend and still has an in case.
See. And you know, I think Kelsey and
I'll pull it up AJ brown or Dalton Schultz.
Whoever it is. It's yeah, it's that team par G.
He's got Kelsey and who's he got from Philly?
AJ's got AJ Brown. Yeah, so this, I mean, this team
had Schultz it Flex the tight end, which not enough people
did. It didn't actually have
Hawkinson but it does. Have Metcalf Schultz was a
really nice pivot off of lamb the way that he scored as well,
but had a Jacksonville pass catcher as well in there, right?
Yeah, Cristian Kirk is up there towards the top.
That was a big. A big element.
Have won. All three of Kirk and say Jones
and Ingram had solid games Ingram was the best of the
three. They were like four points
apart, all three of them. So having one of them was good
as team is is in really good shape.
Going forward to with the eight players, it has pretty chalky
eight players, which is good when you have the best team,
basically, right? Yeah.
And again, you go, you look at this team and you're like, you
know what? If you just played the Miami
defense or by every kicker is T, but it doesn't feel good to play
that against Josh Allen, but if he had built a core of that
specific team and cycle through some of those defenses, And it
starts to look interesting. Pat, what's our, what's our
favorite team? Do you have a number that you'd
like me to pull up of retr SC? Well, if you while he's looking,
we click on that one more time. The other thing I would say Pete
to your point. This also has excellent as
McCaffrey in the flex, if it had not just, you know, a Miami
kicker or D but also had the stones to be on a Chargers
kicker or D and had the two running backs with McCaffrey in
the flex, it would have had room for You know, Hawkins and I
think this team it's on great Joseph Minnesota kicker.
It could have also had Hawkinson on this roster, right?
Or even just in Jefferson, I think, what did better than
Eckler? I don't know.
But I mean this team could have been even better that way.
If you get the kicker in the Deep right on both sides with
Miami and the Chargers and also this team shouldn't even be
allowed to win money because you know, McCaffrey played earlier
in the day. And so he should have been in
your running back spot and then access actually be in the 40s.
He should really do it. Whatwhat, do you have ours,
those live teams that Leone made this crazy as the lineup score
for? He didn't put the teen number.
He's put the lineup in you want it.
You can give me a leak in this. I can find another spreadsheet.
I know it's yeah, yeah, yeah. There's Josh Allen Jerick
McKinnon. It's a McKinnon one.
So same on CD. Team three is one of our better
team. Teams.
Okay. That's funny.
I made a note when I built that and I wrote Game k+ Goddard in
the notes, but we are, we are really heavy on Jerick McKinnon
and ghadir. That team had hot the sequences
that. This is the this is the one I
just read. This is yeah.
T-bone steak. Once it's time for our highest
lineup, score / Leone's Color Math, Yeah, and this one this is
why if you guys noticed McKinnon in ghadir or on the thumbnail
because some of our biggest sweats are going to come down to
McKinnon and ghadir, you know, outscoring Kelsey and the Eagles
wide receivers. We have one like this as well.
That's 35. Is the other 135.
Which ones that that's also got McKinnon and Goddard, it was a
Jefferson. It didn't have the say, Quan
Hock. It has take one Jefferson, but
it does have DK. I think, now, this doesn't have
to get, maybe this isn't the right one.
I wasn't the one, right? And one this, the three tight
ends might really help Schultz and Ingram ya.
Got ya Schultz Ingram and got her.
There's one that's Josh. Allen say Quan jarek CD Metcalf
kiddo. Cristian Kirk Keenan, Allen
Jamar Chase AJ Brown Greg Joseph Baltimore.
D Miami. Can we do Miami there my a
medium, Tampa Bay fade. That's also tied.
That's a good one that feels very alive.
I don't like cameras that one we don't have.
I don't know what number it is because, yeah, that's crazy.
A spreadsheet, final ownership numbers are available on fantasy
Mojo. I will post it in the chat.
I believe it's free that link. You should be able to So 35 that
you just looked at had the Chargers D3, which we looked at
before we had Cameron Decker on. We did play a couple of these
kicker D situations, right in this.
Part of the reason that we like these teams as well, we were
just talking about. I was pointing out some of the
players that were on those teams but That help those teams be
pretty live as well. Have a brown on the team.
I just read is pretty fun. What's that one's a Philly?
Faith are 61 p-61. Yeah, that's a Philly fade.
We're probably dust. It's I think it's a full fate,
Philly. You'd have to be a leading at
this point. Yeah.
Let me see if I can find this Baltimore DS.
T 1. Yeah um 1661 had Brady is a
Kewpie as well. That one's very done.
We will. Yes.
Nate you would went to if you entered 75, we entered 75
lineups. Um I was on my team 57.
By the way, it's like we actually entered three lineups
twice because once you get to 72 you can cover all the possible.
McKinnon Metcalf, lamb kittel, AJ Brown Kirk Chase Keenan.
Great Joseph. Baltimore defense.
That's another another McKinnon team we are we are highly
leveraged on Jerick McKinnon here with some of these.
Yeah we are but the ground there's a nice that one probably
can't differentiate enough. Honestly if you look at like
we're at a point already after opening weekend where there's
only eight spots left that one had Alan Berkeley, a lot of the
teams ahead of that. Have Metcalf, had Metcalf lamb.
Chase those guys are all chalky. If we get, if we get a big
McKinnon game and the Jags upset, And then we take Kirk in,
there's I think there's a connection and teams ahead of it
though. I guess it had kid'll to right?
There's Kirk McKinnon teams ahead of it.
Yeah. For sure, for sure what it was
in like, three hundredths, 3, hundredths plus.
Yeah, but this dot many Kirk McKinnon teams in this contest
Yeah. Kirk's him.
A lot of the top teams of the Jegs receivers are in a lot of
the top couple hundred teams, she work at CH manager Terry.
It was like my third High star running back, I've never been
worried um going back to some of the ownership projections.
That surprised a surprised us one that took me by surprise was
how close Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were.
I really thought the Boomers were going to jam.
Yes. Godwin.
That was surprising. Kurt guys, isn't 11:00 lineups
raw? I mean 14% but 11:00 lineups and
McKinnon, got to 8.7%, he's in like 680.
All right, I mean those guys are quite a few lineups.
Yeah, including mr. Chesh Liam's.
Kirk Mackenzie, go he's got Liam, one of our.
We had were covered on, is in 50th.
Place with a Kirk McKinnon Schultz team.
Where do you get your ideas? Lamb, Bobby wants to know he's
in 77th with as a and so I have a chance or am I dead because of
a suck-up zero. I think, if you have any
leverage spots like a Higgins over a chase, like I think you
can make up some ground. Also Super Bowls double points
and the Bengals could definitely make the Super Bowl so you might
need something like that. But like yeah you're not dead
being in 77th with Higgins is actually kind of impressive
because I think, probably all, but, maybe two of the lineups
ahead of you have Chase because Chase was so highly owned and
was their top scoring player, right?
Yeah. And you so you have hochzeit a
Metcalf, yeah, this team's definitely live, that's
different than the current point.
I was making were a lot of the Kirk limes are doing any
Christian. Kirk lineups are doing well and
say, Jones, limes are doing right T Higgins.
Lineups are not doing well as a group at all, they're doing
terrible, so if you're the top Hunter, would see Higgins your
life. Why?
I mean, you're obviously waiting for a massive T Higgins game.
But when you have the hawk, Zay Metcalf, Chargers defense like
this is a really unique team. Now you just need Higgins to put
the pressure on, I'm gonna check.
The only sheet just to give them a confirmation but I'm going to
guess he's the highest scoring team against team.
Also like, I should try and pull it up but the there's one other
T he can steam ahead of him. Hmm.
That does also haves a in like 11th Place.
So maybe he's not like I don't know the winner from last year.
Was didn't score really any points in their kicker and
defense. So we still have plenty of time
to go here. I don't think a suck-up zero is
going to I mean if you had like a bright Maher 0 you're dead,
right? Like you're not keeping Pace
with a team that advanced, you know, right.
Well yeah but I got the correct. They'd zero correctly faded the
team, the team lost, you need them to lose and they did you
don't get any points from it but I think you live to fight
another day. Are ya where there any other
ownership projection? We mentioned the Justin Tucker.
We mentioned, Mike Evans being close to God.
When Pat what were the other ones that really surprised me?
I have a few, I have my sheet here as we did the pot.
I was able to pull up. Let me, let me give 40K one
little note. I looked it up.
Again, one guy ahead of him with Higgins is a full fake, KC
Philly team. We talked about a lot of teams
being up there in the leaderboard, the that full
fayad, Kansas City and, and the Eagles.
So you're alive. I mean, if you're Philly and
Eagles guys, do well your life. So here you can see like this
this goes to the point I was making earlier like I was pretty
cool actually felt like the Seattle one, I probably was
under on and I didn't update that enough that kept like
basically bumping this yellow Fade up and I didn't get enough.
I wasn't sure who to pull a front turns out.
It was the Chargers who I should be pulling from.
Actually over the Jaguars got faded more than I thought.
So this here I'm looking at column K is what I thought was
going to happen. Cam else would actually happen.
But yeah like Baltimore I thought 88% of filled with fade
89. Did I just was way off on how
they're going to do it which you know I feel like to be honest, I
mean for showing by the field. Frankly.
Yeah you guys should have mixed it up a little bit more but I
obviously, you know, could have seen that coming.
Going better. Hey guys, there's been so much
disrespect to Justin Tucker. I feel like it's time to pay our
respects. Forgive me.
Father for I have slandered Justin Tucker.
Sorry Pat continue and I'm just changing some conditional format
making this so. Okay, so this is my projected
ownership versus the actual and then where I was where I missed
high. So there's a guys I missed the
highest on so Baltimore fade because seeking Metcalf The
Baltimore fate is largely Tucker, right?
You have because it's okay. This is a hard fate.
Yeah, as I mention before. So I nailed the overall failed
with overall fade within one percentage point but then was
way off on people hard fading. I thought 48 percent is actually
semantics to be within 11 on everything else has.
I mean that Metcalf one is so crazy.
There's I got one, you could not have gotten that at 4%, why
would you have ever predicted it at 4%?
I wouldn't, I mean, I would have told you, you were crazy, 50.
Honesty has crossed my mind. That this projection may have
helped this number come in. It could because people are
like, he's not obvious, I'm going to go to lock it.
I assumed the, I don't know, I don't know if I'm a fucking
rocket wound up, high around the neck calf, right?
Yeah, yeah, crazy. He did the, we explain some of
our tilt of looking through our teams and not having enough
Miami soffits. I would say, the second most
tilt we had, and reviewing teams was looking at really sick teams
that had lock instead of everything.
Like our lock exposure, you're just like, why?
And with the projection, I think it's right.
Obviously, if you know, metcalf's at 4%, you're jamming
but like, even talking to Leone where they had them projected
for their wild card, they had them within, I think it was like
a point in ceiling projection. So it's just like, you do want
to play a little bit of both, but it stings.
And in terms of how we did play it we more or less split it
even, right? I don't have that right in front
of me but I think off the top of my head I want to say was like
6040 Yeah, I think we had a slight tilt to Metcalf.
We did 18% Metcalf 16%, lock it, and we went, we wanted to be
overweight. Both, even on packs number.
He wanted to be a little bit overweight and play these guys.
Like we talked about on the show, we combine for 34% and we
put 11% Kenneth Walker. So we played, you know, nearly
50% of those three guys from the Seahawks.
We wanted to be overweight on that, play in further, thinking
through that thing about the soft Fades.
The hard Fades, what the field is doing.
The field was more comfortable, soft.
The Fading, the Seahawks against the Niners.
They were they were okay with the kicker.
They were okay with the deepest, baby them.
However, that's one I missed. That was 13% low.
Yeah. And the overall Faith.
So I just which that was, that was a Miss by me.
I, I kind of felt that, you know, I I thought they would be
in the same bucket as these two other teams Baltimore in Miami
and I didn't feel like they should be treated the same.
As I thought there was, you know, a better chance of high
scoring player in the game. I thought they were somewhat
live. That It didn't really age that
well, but I mean, I guess I just I am surprised that 86% of the
field faded the Seahawks and only 82% of the field fade in
Miami. That does surprise me a bit.
Yeah, with Skylar Thompson at quarterback.
She knows a very live quarterback exactly Scylla
Thompson. Like what doesn't make a lot of
sense. Talk through some of these other
ones Pat for the Delta? Yes.
So we have like T Higgins came in at 9:00 which I thought Was
pretty surprising but let's just sit below, Devon, takane still
came in like 18. Yeah, Monta.
And I thought that was going to be very analogous.
Not to mention you're getting the extra game with Higgins.
Yeah. Right.
So that one kind of surprised me God or came in very low, let me
see. So these are the ones I missed.
Hi, Ian Higgins was literally the optimal bangle last year
because of the big Super Bowl game.
We look at that and then the weekend.
Then he comes to single digits in the optimal.
He was in the winning line up. Yeah, that one definitely
surprised me Tucker. We talked about a missile.
Oh Jack's Jacksonville, DMS slow, AJ Brown, I miss low which
goes to, I missed high on jail and Hertz which is one of the
thing I thought. If I missed I was going to miss
high on hurts because just you know everything was going to go
to Alan Goddard is the other one.
That was a part of that right there you have.
Yeah I mean how did he Come in at 7:00.
I mean, I'm glad we got it with seven on some of these key time,
I know it's pretty wild, but that led me to be too low.
On AJ Brown, too low on CD lamb to launch more Chase obviously
with the Teigen stuff. But we talked about not knowing
if the chocolate condenses much this year and I mean it did as
much as ever, you know. I mean it that is much as ever.
A lot of these ones you're low on are just like how high were
you really going to go on the chalk like yep.
The field was willing to They were willing to go that High DS,
the chats, the chat, pointing out the stuff on the Seattle
stuff is that the weather was spooking people.
But with so weird to me is that people were still soft fading.
I mean, what was Myers played too much but they're nine
percent is Ryan percent. So it's in to me that almost
doesn't like. I feel like if you're afraid of
the weather like the kicker's like the first thing that goes
right? All right and then you play the
running back and do what was playing Kenneth Walker.
I don't know. I know the weather stuff impacts
how people approach the DFS, I don't know how much that was
impacting. This at people were still
playing Myers but not playing the Run game.
I don't. Yeah, I mean I thought that
Myers will be low, I think I projected 4%.
So I did think that the weather would affect people a little bit
but I don't know, were you? You had to have missed high on
Debo. He only came in at three percent
that is crazy to me. Yeah, I must have missed out on
Diva. Let me see where Debo was I just
probably filtered him out Pat trying to change the Optics
here. Get get a big mess out of here.
Classic two million years ago. I was so I was gonna just going
to Pat myself on the back for some of these and which is what
I said myself to do. So I miss I projected nine.
He came in three, that's crazy. Yeah, insane.
Because like that actually did that, just go to see em, see
where you low on some think it went I was low on CMC.
Yeah McCaffrey I was six percent low on my projected 71% Scent.
So wasn't wasn't to talked a little bit about the potential
for Depot to get like, Unleashed.
I thought people would think like they could use Debo like
Depot and they did, like it wasn't like they started using
him. He got the first couple carries,
like they started using them like they did in the playoffs
last year. They know he's one of the best
players are gonna use him in the playoffs.
Like what if you got Debo 3%? Congrats.
I don't know. You got a ton but congrats
that's a good play. He's freaking Debo single.
Yeah, right. So here's my biggest hits.
Alan within 1%. Which Eve after that, after they
might exist on the cognoscenti. Someone up up.
I still miss Low by one percent I started.
I originally in the week was like, he's gonna be 45 because I
think you're in the 30s and the arrows.
Like he's gonna be over 50, and then when he came in at 14, I
know. It's like technically.
Yeah, you guys nailed that. I'm directionally accurate.
Leonard, fournette at 8% of always been dialed in, on Lenny?
That's yeah, you know, my letter for that, right?
Yeah, just always Style. George kittel missed low one.
Tyreke Miss Lo one, Kirk hit exactly homes within one.
The Taiwan all when you get done with what you're doing now,
faster, vandala, Jacksonville masturbating.
Yeah, I thought it was interesting to see Kirk Ingram
and has a relative to each other.
I'll pull it up. I'm almost done.
Justin Jefferson one know, everyone.
Seattle D1, craftsperson 78%, 77% is so good.
I mean, these were massive chalk piece.
I did miss on, some of the big big chalk.
Who's the one at the bottom there?
That 74. That's Kelsey.
You nailed him to. Yeah, so that was hopefully that
helps the bee. Yeah, those are some important
players to nail. Yeah.
Yes, I apologize everyone. I will release the bids here.
We're jamming it all in on, see eh, if he's floating around on
your waiver wire this week. Ingram Ingram came in, I was
wondering if you had Ingram ahead of Kirk and projected and
I expected him to come in above, kirkuk came in below Kirk and
then, ye came in lower than we had him.
I mean, you had him here lower than those two guys.
By a lot came in even lower. I mean, say it free, A percent
is kind of smashed like he could have easily be their top scoring
player and you know, given one game or two game span for sure.
Yeah. Yeah, these ended up being being
big differentiators and just the fact that all of like kyrgyz a
and in Ingram hit ended up being pretty big.
And I would have been with you. That one actually surprised me
Ingram 10:41. I thought the combination of
Titan premium, which people do forget the FPC is and how hot
Ingram was down the stretch and like etn, hasn't been a monster
etn, hasn't been Berkeley to where he's catching all these
passes and you just feel Great about it.
So I was surprised. I thought Ingram would have been
more where you had them at 20. Well, the thing I missed on is
the fates. Yeah, I had I had them being 19%
faded because I thought people play both sides of that.
Game is a shootout and he says, Pat Dailey so many people.
He needs a king size bed. You get it.
Good job Chloe. It was 39%.
So I missed 20% on The overall Fades.
So and I miss Lipp, flip side of the Chargers people played that
as a Chargers win. Not as a toss-up.
That's the misrepresenting the market because churches are on
the road and they were two point favorites on the road that was
like, and I guess the 525, the narratives were so anti Staley
after he, you know. He got Mike Williams hurt with
this donkey Shenanigans. So, I just thought, like, the
mood was not going to be that positive about the Chargers.
Oh, I don't think I did it wrong.
I think the field it's a good lesson for the field that you
can. I mean, you should look at the
market when it's a two-point spread, it's a toss-up game like
this, it shouldn't be played this heavily one way, right?
Minnesota. Total fade was 3%, giant stole
fate of 30%, that came also very close spread, it was alive
upset, and nobody wanted to fade Minnesota because there were
three seed like just because of the well because they wanted to
play Jefferson. Yeah.
But is one place that was a toss UPS in the market.
Like you got to be willing to fade a team that you think can
win take a stand, you know? I mean that's a massive leverage
point there. There's also like if you think
about that to the playing the game, both sides, and it's funny
because it's kind of similar to what happens in DFS where bring
backs are overused. There's something where it's
comfy about it but you're actually having to hit like a
two-way parlay, right? Where you're saying, I want to
get a few things right as possible.
If you just Onslaught a team you're saying have to get one
thing right? This team crushes.
If you bring a bring back, you're saying this team crushes.
And the other team has a piece or two.
That also crushes coming back in the same thing with this.
Playing a guy from the other side where it's like, you're
having to hit a two-way parlay of saying, hey Berkeley crushes
and also Jefferson crushes coming back.
I get that. But it still is a slight leap of
not baking in the uncertainty of when Berkeley winds.
There are a lot of scenarios where the Vikings implode or the
top players don't play. Like it is more of a parley than
I think. People think when they click
Berkeley Jefferson can't lose. So I think you're actually
giving some people too much critics, I think that the
comfiest thing with that game was It doesn't matter who wins.
I have wait, that's whatever, right?
And I'm saying, they're not accounting for, it doesn't
matter who wins that that scenario.
One of the players downside. Yes, isn't fully blow?
Someone's gonna lose about how like you want, whatever team
wins, but someone's gonna lose to write like someone and
they're probably gonna lose because their stud players
aren't dropping 30 points. That's the other thing.
You nailed here was the positional stuff we talked about
tight end coming a little late but You had running back just 8%
below, the total cumulative running back receiver, just 10%
below and then tighten 18% High because Titans came in weirdly
low. But otherwise, yeah, I mean, you
nailed the flex distribution. Like, that's a really close
that. It, I didn't really, I just
looked at that. Now that is the running back and
wide or so, I think that's as close as I've ever been.
That's incredibly back and wide receiver stuff, think about 4
Flex spots, that's hard to be that close.
Yeah, shout out Pat for, you know, being Filthy Rich and
still just rolling up. His sleeve is firmly getting his
hand in the spreadsheet. And the dirt today, all these
ownership for Jackson's like, you would have been, well within
your right to vote it in this year and you grind it out, man.
I grinded it out, man. I enjoy.
Yeah, I enjoy fast. Do you create a model to
project? These are just straight Vibes.
What is your process here? So my process was I let it like
I've done this now for like three or four years.
So, I went back here. To my 2021, is this?
Now, this is a different stretch.
So, I've got all these spreadsheets in here.
Let's see, where is it? So, it's just the verb to 2020
version of. This is a twenty20 version.
So I'd go in here and I basically be like, where did you
know, Stefan takes come in. Where did, you know, where did
Kelsey come in? And this year I started with the
Chiefs because we have such a long history on the on the
Chiefs being in the tournament and Kelsey was like, kind of the
hinge point in a lot of ways with how bad that the tight And
options were outside of Kelsey. So that was like, the biggest
thing I was like, I need to make sure I have my chief stuff
dialed in and then I kind of took it from there and then it's
just a matter of like these, if I were to go, let me just like,
put Lawrence a 2% here that throws a flag, that throws a
flag. So I've got all these numbers
need to be up at 100%. So I kind of just kind of like
throw stuff in, get it all to 100%.
It's not a model. You're a Builder.
It's not him building. Yeah, that yeah.
The, the short answer is, I'm hand building these, how would
two million dollars? Put his hard hat on and hand
built, all of these projections, and then has to deal with us
telling them why he's wrong on one specific player and it has
to account for the Fallout of who is getting docked because of
the player, we want you to jack. Yeah, well that's like on the
Wednesday and Friday shows. I had it dialed in enough,
right? Be like, tell me where it comes
from. Like I'm open to this idea that
Josh Allen is too low, which you guys are right?
He Was then it's like where does it come from?
Who's it? Is in my homes?
As it is, in other words. So, all that stuff needs to be
accounted for otherwise. None of them are going to be
accurate. And then I also, I would go.
Another big thing is that I went through and I looked at these,
where the total Fades, kicker defense, plus the hard fade came
in to get a sense of how teams are going to play these. 50/50
matchups how they played in the past.
One thing I missed really bad on last year, was not having enough
of like the Fades for like the teams that everyone wanted to
say night. It happened again with Seattle,
but at least I nailed it with Baltimore and Miami.
Am I being within a percent? There is very encouraging for me
because I missed really badly on that last year.
Seattle. I think that made was like a
personal bias. Like I felt like they shouldn't
be treated like that, but they clearly were.
So that was a, you know, a smaller Miss than last year, at
least on on that. But that's something I'm paying
a lot of attention to is where these total Fades are going to
come in at At and relative to you know, where they come out in
the past. Yep.
Well real quick before we move on people, I know they want they
want the gauntlet drafts to things.
We do need to talk about Brock / D in here.
Our guy Sam, Sherman has a couple nice teams with his guy
Brock who he did the equivalent of a flag plant to how we
feeling about Brock / D in this FPC contest going forward.
Well, I mean I think in stuff like The Gauntlet and everything
like if you feel pretty good, you know, like he got it
through, you know, you I imagine drafted another quarterback and
a lot of cases so you don't need too much from.
But I think in the FPC like I think we're gonna see some
pretty teams tumbling down as we go further.
I mean Sam we wish nothing for the best for you and this pretty
bit but your Day of Reckoning is coming.
Please don't clip that what it does.
It does. I mean you need you know you
don't need to get your quarterback to the Super Bowl,
but it certainly would help. And I don't know, I think your
if you do get property to the Super Bowl, you're going to be
facing off most likely against Mahomes Allen or Borough and
that might be your Day of Reckoning.
I mean, one of the like he was obviously incredible 36 points
in this whatever scoring system I'm looking at now.
But like Doc had 39. Allen had 31 Lawrence had 31,
Tina, Jones had 31. You're not really differentiated
or anything like you. He's got to go 30 again next
week or else. He's just Trevor Lawrence or
Daniel Jones. Like I mean Good luck.
And yeah, I mean the market is bullish on on Brock / D.
I will tell you, I will tell you that much but this is It's I'm
very excited for this game against the Cowboys to like if
you would have asked me what I thought that spread was going to
be, like, just sight unseen one. The Cowboys won.
I think I would have said like -6 or something Niners in the
fact that it's at three and a half made me think too.
Like I mean if that's saying if it's on a neutral field that
this would essentially be a pic on between, In which I think is
actually right. But the way people are treating
Brock Purdy and drafts right now.
Is that they're ten point favorites?
Yeah. Yeah, it's weird.
I mean, I've gotten a lot of the Cowboys Ivan.
I've done some of these Gauntlet ooze, you can just get the
Cowboys. Like, I'd done a bunch.
Yeah, you can. It's kind of crazy.
I don't really get it. The Cowboys looked really good.
The Cowboys looked awesome earlier in the year.
They weren't so great down the stretch and then they look
really good against the box. So like, The Bucks weren't even
in that game. I know, I do want to say in
Sam's defense to the FPC thing real quick, what he's rooting
for now, is kill to have a monster game because Depot and
McCaffrey I scored. But like, if it starts to spread
around for or are you? Yeah, or are you?
Yeah. Are you cut a couple chances to
have some big plays in that game?
And we've seen the Niners, do it.
It does seem like, for down the stretch of the season was like
one of kidal IU, Cordy, bow, and depose out for a little bit of
that with just pop up for the big game.
So you can hit that if it spreads around enough and he
keeps getting three touchdowns the game.
He does look good like pretty. He's kind of got, he's way more
fun than Jimmy, right? Because he misses all mrs.
Throws so bad, but they're down field then the but he hits all
his throws like clothes line of scrimmage and he can improvise,
and he can scramble around a little bit.
Like he's way more fun. When Jimmy mrs.
It's a slant pattern. He doesn't see the lurking
linebacker and he hits him right in the chest.
You're like, yes, off Jimmy just Jesus.
That's terrible. Where do you guys?
I think we're he's like, he's got a guy open deeper down field
and he just Mrs. It about as bad as anyone can.
Yeah. But that was like, yeah, you
never really know, you know? Let's, let's build.
So they do have the Second Challenge.
So same basic principles tighter line up here.
No kicker, no defense to less Flex spots, but thought, after
doing all the talking through and Groucho, you had a couple
thoughts on maybe a few spots. Ownership might just like, to
how it started messing around with doing a little ownership
for this, that I wanted to bug pad about, at some point this
week, but I think Alan ended up 50% in the other one, we talk
through how that was pretty unique with the extra game
hurts. In my homes, being his two
biggest competition on buys impacted that in the last round.
I think in this round, you probably see Alan and hurts
pretty close to even. I would guess, does that seem
right to you guys as a slightly after The bill showed that they
had massive holes, like they win by 20 there.
I don't think so but because of how they want I do.
Yeah they have the toughest match thumbs up in this one at
least a little because we saw tight ends do some stuff.
So you feel a little bit better about going to a different tight
end, right? Because the license I did it as
28 28 24, the quarterback ownership 20 on Mahomes 28 even
for Alan and hurts. Does that seem like that's a way
down for Allen from what he was in the last contest?
I might tilt a little bit more to Alan there, but that seems
fair. I couldn't just playing it
right? You're like I'm playing, this is
a shootout and then I just need a shootout against Kansas City
and then I don't necessarily need to get them to the Super
Bowl. Yeah, let's look at, I probably
like steal a little bit from a home's.
Probably, maybe a little bit from hurts.
Maybe, two from each and give that to hell.
Yeah, easy, I'll pull this up, Justin Freeman, just tweeted out
his take on ownership for this Pat, he's coming for you.
Your crown, but in the UK, the round two is.
The crown is available for grass.
Yeah, it's never been contested. I've never attempted that Crown,
so he's got Alan 43%. I'm taking the under on that
Freeman, who's our buddy, but I think that's way too high Alan
at 43. Seems very high to me.
Yeah, I think mid-30s would be hurt only at 16%, I'm, there's
no way. I just, I fully reject that.
Because everyone's going to assume they'll beat the Giants,
right? So it's like, if he was going
against the Cowboys, I think. Yeah.
See. More like 16.
But in the other thing to think about, right?
Is because there are no soft and hard fades in this version that
the ownership is going to condense even further on the
studs on losing herb, you know, projected to lose team.
So Berkeley CD lamb hurts was or as you can get 10% in the other
contests where he had a bye. And kickers Indies and Fades
were thing which are eagles, weren't heavily faded, but that
did cut like a few percentage points off of their total.
In this contest is no kickers and he's you have to play 100%
of every team. There's no Fades and so everyone
gets bumped up a little. So that 16% is basically just
the same rate that he was played in the first contest that mean,
that would be projecting, like, almost no rides for hurts.
I don't think I can agree with that but it does seem just
looking at these though. Like the big Edge is you They'd
Berkeley, you fade lamb, you make the pivot to the secondary
teammate on the biggest issue, and this is again, it's QB
running back running back wide receiver wide receiver, tight
and flex flex, no kicker, no D. All position players, no faded
teams. You're gonna have more dupes.
You're going to have more chalk because you have to play 100% of
every team. There's no fade so you can get
91% particle. You can get these absurd
numbers. I did, I had Barclays my highest
in my little projection. I only have it in the 70s.
I probably love. I bet his name.
One's closer to Accurate. I think that naughty ones, like,
probably pretty, darn close. Because yeah, are you really
going to play Hodgins or Slayton or James like, that's just not a
fun click. And there's nowhere else to
hide. You have to pick a giant, I like
that. You know what?
One seems a little off to me kid'll at Double the ownership
of Debo just with hindsight bias and McCaffrey smashing that
feels a little off to me. I flipped that I have the little
at 8% and Depot at 21%. I have that flip quite a bit was
killed and do well and there's also other Titans to play Ingram
this seems pretty Ingram will catch a fair bit of ownership
because they're not going to want to play etn necessarily.
He's not that fun of a play because you assume it's a
passing script. And yeah, all the non etn guys,
Smash in a - game script where they got there in the second
half like people are going to feel comfortable mapping that
game on to this one right there, Shockley and Schultz just had a
big game to. I think he's a little late and
11% On Schultz. But yeah, I mean, you're worried
about dupes in this contest. As far as like, overall
approach, like you're saying Pete, you want to?
I mean, you it's very possible that some of these really high
own players are in the optimal, but you definitely want to Pivot
off some of them. Like there's going to be big
dips on if you play Kelsey Sycuan, McCaffrey lamb, Chase
Allen and do two pivots that's going to get Duke 10 times.
Middle the, we indict, we have the numbers right on how many
teams were duped in the original contest, didn't lie.
Only pull that. Yeah, there was one team that
was duped like 100 times. That's it.
See ya, you duped 100 times? Yeah, a hundred times.
Yeah, because if you win, if you win the contest to win $5000.
100. Yeah.
I'll pull this up right now. Is that?
I crazy. Yeah.
Without with how $100 106, dude, imagine those hundred people
putting in their bio FPC playoffs contest Champion.
Five thousand dollars 99 and my closest friends.
Yeah and it's so steep that you really are.
I mean You get down to like tenth place.
You're making like 5, G, 3 Grand, whatever it is, it's not
a lot. Well yeah, I went out all those
spots but that's way down. Yeah, it's yeah, that's why I'm
saying it's actually be more. I'm, you're splitting 1 to 100
foot like everything. That'll add much more the right,
Reverend, you level everything might as well just be fucking
5,000, guys, you're right. I'm under selling that a little
bit but still like Like, you're trying to finish first, and part
of that is not splitting it, you're not understanding that.
That much. When you look at the actual
prize pool, like the 11th to 100.
Those 90 spots are all, like, not a lot of money.
V of your lineup is far far, less than what it was when you
entered it. Is this is the point here.
What's it do it? What was the Boomer opto?
Yeah we try to protect it with blue hair opto is very
engrossed. So it was a ETS.
Tucker. Of course and then the surprise
here was Tampa Bay defense. When we were kind of waffling on
suck up or Godwin? Yeah, the balk.
But then you had the dolphin in Seahawk full fade.
As the biggest, next one is only on one line up lower.
So it's kind of Co Boomer optic over 1500 and has Jacksonville
team defense and no etn. So, that's pretty funny.
Because that was our debate, what would the Boomer?
Opto have Godwin or etn and the answer was both their attempt.
This split split boober opto. Dude, some guys were at the
Sizzler somewhere at the Applebee's put together, two
warring gangs of Boomers. I did have a thought when Ben
was mentioning like dupes in this second contest.
Like here is, here's my do pack for this second contest.
It is Jags and Giants wide receivers, right?
Because Not only are you getting leverage on two of the three
highest own running backs, who are projected to lose.
But all of the ancillary pass, catchers the three Jags, guys,
Zay Kirk Ingram. And then the three Giants wide
receivers Hodgins, James and Slayton.
All of those guys have showed a ceiling.
They're going to come in way low owned and you're getting
leverage. I feel like that's how you get
undo pretty quickly, that etn. Number seems high to me too
though. I mean, we just saw Jacksonville
receivers all score a touchdown and Etienne not and you said
like they might map that game over like zis going to come in
four percent again if that happens I want to be on so I
could see that I could see that for sure.
I put them at 12 in the I think Ingram and Kirk will come in a
little bit higher. Especially Ingram.
You need that, unless everyone's just going to Kelsey, but I
think the science one, especially, no one's Yang the
Giants, guys. They're all playing Sake One.
Yep. Right, one other, this isn't a
quite a do I maybe it's sort of a Jags level to Buster would be
just don't play McCaffrey player like Debo.
Like, I mean, people comes in yep.
Even at 15, he's a really strong play and I could, I could see
Justin being right here that he's, you know, and then I would
also say AJ Brown as much as it pains me pretty easy to go to
Devon toward Dallas. Goddard it fraction of the
ownership and he's probably right there too because we
didn't see them play. There's no reason to really
adjust and AJ Brown did come in pretty high in the first one.
Yeah I mean if you can get Goddard at 6% I don't know that
he'll come in at six. I think got her might come up a
little bit from that but those are the Eagles and the I would
throw in with the Niners as like good teams that can win.
But also, you don't have to play the chalk even if they win and
they can win through their secondary pieces.
Yeah, I think CD and CM C is like this, this rounds Jefferson
Berkeley, Or it's like it's fine.
They're both find a play but decide who's winning that game.
Yeah, it's too easy to go and also Berkeley AJ.
Brown is a similar Dynamic. You're like it doesn't matter
who wins it's like, well guess what's going to later?
You're going even going to have opinion about slater.
How about this? I'll give you guys a question.
If you let just include Josh and let's just put him at 50%, just
for the sake of this hypothetical.
I'm going to do Max, how many players projected over 50%?
So Josh Allen Berkeley, Kelsey I am Chase AJ Brown, I think for
and McCaffrey I wouldn't go in the cafeteria.
I think it was and etn in there to sorry so I skipped a few so
max of 1 2 3 4, 5 6 7 8, there's eight of those guys up there who
are projecting for more than 50 as well as Josh Allen.
Yeah, I feel like for feels about right?
Like you've got half of them. That's yeah, that's a lot.
That's a lot of the most on guys because if you if you only do
two pivots were three pivots like there, that's going to get
do probably right. Like well, especially if you
only do two, I think it goes six in Berkeley.
If you go Berkeley to Hodgins, it depends any of it.
For sure. You could probably do 5 then
yeah, yeah, yeah I think there's like you more.
If you go to like Juju for the Chiefs or something.
Then yeah you can play all, then your then you got hurt.
Yeah, whatever. The, but there's some chalk that
we're not going to be as confident about, right.
Like the sake want Rock, I think is like we can be very, very
confident about that, but the etn chalk, if you skip that one
and go to Ingram, like, Ingram I come in pretty chalky, so,
right? There's, I think you want to
think through that. Like, how confident am I that?
I don't have all the mega chalk, great point, because that could
be a Miss low on Ingram etn. I think it's probably over
projected there out of that. So, I would say like my favorite
TV to off. The rep would be Pollard, Giants
wide receiver instead of Berkeley lamb.
Or Schultz. But yeah.
I like those. Yeah, collar Giants wide
receiver. Yeah, so then, what are you
doing with the 49ers? I'm cool with.
I'm just saying that one. Seems like a really easy to V2
where I feel like my side of the two.
V two is extremely live and just lopping off like 80% of
ownership. Yeah, because I've yeah kind of
like going lamb. This would be a different one
but lamb Debo and then probably also still John's wide receiver.
I think John's wide receiver. Be kind of the key.
What? Yeah, for sure, one of the big
advantages to playing Pollard as well.
If you go back to that one last time you have to play two
running backs, eats and Berkeley and McCaffrey are the only three
chalky running backs were talking about how Berkeley neat
Sienna wants to get off of literally playing any other
running back than those three. If you look at these ownership
something Paul are probably next.
From what I can see real quick at 18.
Yeah but like if you play McKinnon at 9 or mixing, it 11,
any other running back in a to running back build where you
fake both etn Berkeley and you play.
You mean still play McCaffrey, I think, but whether that's mix
in, whether that's McKinnon, whether that smile Sanders or
something. I mean, so your idea of playing
Pollard in a to running back build.
I think is awesome, like, how good of a play is mixing and I'm
not usually someone who says, how good of a play is mixing but
like, it's pretty good. Yeah, high-scoring environment.
The whole thing with him is that he has chance to score like two
or three touchdowns, which he certainly wouldn't this game.
And then, what if they are dumping off a little bit more,
they just lost one of their tackles That, you know, they can
play the mileage. Great to begin with.
Yeah, you're playing Menelaus like running back build, and I
think he's a great play and if you make it to running back
built, I don't think you want to flex him and then he has to beat
Chase outright exactly outro exactly.
Using a, fill out one, a running back spots, get off the super
choc running backs, get different there.
I think mixing actually opened some things up.
Yeah, so at running back, just dont play two of the top three
together and you're pretty much good.
I would say that's probably good to cheat code.
I mean it's an easy it's a Easy Button.
Really? I do like, the like Pollard CMC
pairing. Yeah, yeah, go for it.
All right, let's just do it to running back.
Bill throat. Jimin And then, do you guys have
a favorite Giants wide receiver? Well, Hodgins is fine with me.
Yeah, yeah. Last weekend.
He just fine as hell. Yeah.
He's also just like a possession guy like, doesn't need a ton of
things, like, he just he's probably gonna get his six
targets and targets I would Then I think, especially based on
what we just saw. I would make a case for hurts.
What? I don't think you can make a
case to me why hurt should be lower own than Alan in an
efficient market. The way that Buffalo actually
didn't look that great, they're playing Cincinnati.
And then they're playing Casey, they're gonna have to tougher
games than hurts Phillies path to the Super Bowl.
Now, goes to the Giants at home and then brought party at home
at worst case scenario. Not you know, not going through
Patrick Mahomes and I don't Think hurts has the same.
I mean gave Davis look good Dawson.
Knox almost scored two touchdowns.
There are more Eagles players but hurts can obviously Rush
from multiple touchdowns at any point.
Over 3 game span. I think he's the actual optimal
quarterback play from like an efficient market.
That would be my, I like it. I think it's closed because I
think that the way Alan gets through he might just have to
score a ton of points, you know. Like the point he could be in
two massive shootouts. Yeah.
You That earlier that get perk my ears up when he said that.
Yeah. And that things are good point.
I do feel better about like if I get Devante Smith or I get AJ
Brown, I feel like they both have really good odds of
capturing, a lot of the offensive Firepower in one game
and if that games the Super Bowl you're crushing.
So I think Alan's the optimal but I think Chris is an awesome
play. I think we have to play Kelsey
here because we're already leveraged enough on McKenna and
I can't stomach him in this lineup.
Yeah it helps. See ya, I mean Pollard Hodgins
Hertz is the nunchuck QV. We're already in a pretty good
spot overall to so that What teams do we have here?
We got to pick a Jag. I think we can pretty much pick
any of those little bit of fun as Pollard Debo know I like
Snap. See because we're playing in
49ers win. Yeah.
And two games I want CMC. Although I think you can get
Debo into games, you know this. Yeah you could.
Yeah, I think I prefer just like in a vacuum and then if he's
going to be the exact same as Kirk, I think I want Ingram, I
kind of like Kirk is a, if we're good if we're doing Kelsey
because I could see Ingram getting a little bit steamed
relative, I think Eileen Ingram in the sense of what we learned
about tight end and the flex in the first round contest
tournament. I just, I think it's heavy,
right? Lysander plate again.
I also over projected Ingram and maybe doing so again.
All right. Let's so the Bengals one is
interesting. I mean, obviously, on this
lineup I think we can justify Chase.
And then Higgins is going to be just a massive.
Well, we have one has built. Yeah, you guys probably want to
do digs, right? Or do you want to go to Gabe?
I wanted out the eggs in this one.
Okay. And then do what it takes and
Chase was going to be my thing. I think we start with digs, if
we liked eggs, I feel like this lineup needs Higgins like for
you makes you think it's a Higgins lat.
Yeah let's do it. Okay.
All right, don't do this bro we're begging you.
If this runs out as the SC Boomer adjacent opt out, I mean,
one of the things you do a hundred times with all the
people watching them. Yeah, one of the things we did
really well here is we pick the winners.
I mean, we're picking all the favorites, a but we're not
playing the chocolate players. Do you mean we pick the right
players who are going to be the winners in this tournament,
right? Yeah, yeah.
But we're also picking the Teams that are going to lose.
We picked as the non chalk players on those teams.
Like we talked about the top of the show played out a ton last
week. We just saw it but Pollard
Hodgins Higgins Ingram or basically all playing as one and
Dones. That's a good way to Bill.
Yeah, tuned in late. You're gonna what game is this
FPC? Second Challenge and asking if
it's best ball, I recommend watching some of our videos
earlier in the week, on tuned in real late, man.
Yeah, really cover in this contest for, like, two weeks.
I just toss this one in the 35 dollar one.
We do have a link down below if you guys follow it on, ffp.
See if your first time you can get $25 off your first entry so
you could toss one into this contest.
The football guys, one and essentially play it for $10.
So here's that link down below fun to build these.
The problem Gracchus it's like if we start to get the juices
roller you're like what if we just, you know, make 10.
Yeah. What if we just think of Tina
twice? We can't we get off this, right?
We can. What if what if we did?
My parents are in town this week.
I don't know if I could justify another weekend.
Spent building these teams. We did.
Well, the first one, it's a fun contest, and I think it's a plus
EV contest. So, I'm Ready?
Whenever you guys tell me, you're ready.
That's want to do with gauntlet draft to.
Let's do it to wrap up here. Yeah, I'm gonna be right back.
Yeah, All right. Yeah, that's the other thing,
too. That you can do with these.
Like, we were talking about the Jags in the Giants.
You just cycle through the same line up with each one of those
Chris, if you, the process of building 75 of these lineups,
this like a four day process really takes.
So every year were, like, well, we'll start building them
earlier in the week. I think we have like five before
Friday night, and then we get drunk, and then it gets harder.
What the fingers. Well, I just start typing it
baby and then we go to editor and we realized we have like a
wide receiver in the tight end slot and no tight end on that
team and we you know play 2D STS on one team and yeah notice we
have the make a lot of so fast there's always some errors.
We got to smooth out. Yeah the are being not having
enough Miami Dolphins D and kicker.
Yeah sure. Yeah.
I know I do always feel bad for bad for been diving underdog.
I enjoy watching you guys draftees.
I don't the the I hate not having it.
I also I don't hate when we draft, but I also would like I
don't, I don't have any experience with ATP and stuff,
so I don't know what the hell, the offer.
Is it a pig is when we do draft like yeah, how would Bill do you
think if you had Underdog access scratch, do you think you would
have maxed BBM three or would you have been more of a dabbler?
I really don't know because I haven't had any like Like you
would imagine? Yeah, I think I would have
acted. Well, I'm imagining a world in
which you had it last year to you, right?
Yeah. All right.
Mahomes goes first, it's the age-old.
Allen hurts debate, you guys got up guy.
You want to build a team around? I don't know how the build Works
through the end. Like what's this weekend?
Yeah, we can do either. Let's do pursue hurts.
Yeah, let's do it. I think hurts might be the
better pick here in Denver, a reason.
I'll talk discuss. It's it's harder to get Alan
digs just by ATP and like the backstop of always having like
Devon, te relative David Brown is yeah, not too bad.
I like that more ways to stack hurts.
Pat, did you infer that? You have some Eagles propaganda?
Or was it the digs ATP? It was a dig zp.
I just wanted to be able to get the stack.
I feel like you're more covered here in a weird way.
If you go with that, you have a better chance of getting Brown
as atp's with like one spot later.
All right, so does this usually go chase digs ground I guess
Chase might go here normally like I've in mind like Joe water
chamber do at the 6 7 turn all the time.
Okay. He wanted pretty, he's mad at
the turn for taking pretty, right?
He Wente. Trig's, pretty essentially,
transcends ATP, and logic in these contests, he's just his
own entities. So you try to apply logic to
mount. It is so weird.
Why would you take party there? Yeah, awesome happens.
Yeah, so I guess I think we go Smith.
I think we just need to lock them out.
If yeah, we can still play this There's more.
No, just industry. It's over.
We can still play. It's all ruined.
Yeah, because basically what happens with this drafter who
takes Allen digs doesn't fall to them, they know that they're
going to be able to get Gabe Davis.
So then, they know they have one luxury pick in between, so you
want to go Sanders or a 49er. So, all I think I was going to
say, I would go Sanders or, or Davis, or Higgins, basically an
AFC side of it, and they have CL, the petty thing is Davis to
get the Josh. Anything is Davis Hagen's.
Is also in play or Sanders? Well, let's go Davis.
You want to just take our please take Isaiah Mackenzie here just
the cope. He's steaming steaming, right?
Clock is running game. Recognize game.
Nothing like building for the same Super Bowl line up with the
guy right next to you. And yeah, I mean, mutually
assured, destruction is always went.
Well yeah, yeah everyone else. A is like thank God these idiots
are fighting each other. I want to say, like I did, you
know, I did a couple hundred of these playoffs.
I think there's only a couple times where I did get so tilted
that I went out of my way to make sure that's like there.
It's very it doesn't happen that often for me, but when it does
happen, it does induce of Rage Like if you if you're setting
something up and it's similar like I don't blame you at all,
but some of these people man. This is this going to be a
Goddard pick here. Yeah, if he goes a third Eagle
in a row, I think it's fine if he does like we have a pretty
nice single stack. Tackle know where he went.
So I would say we take Juju or or no powers.
We could Pollard's definitely like the best player that I'm
just saying if we want to build out a Philly and then Casey or
Buffalo Super Bowl that would be the other option that I've been
going kind of all for but maybe that's a mistake.
I'm going to just take I'm just going to take you to real quick.
Okay, and I'm sorry pawlik. I just cooked you hard on.
Your he was he's sniping and no started another Feud continues.
Dude, we're sandwich with guides that Building the exact same
shit. We are.
So we could take, we could take Pacheco.
Which feels shitty. I've been getting sick.
Another building to cook this egg knocks or Singletary.
Knocks or Singletary? Yeah, I actually Singletary,
makes a lot. We have to take Singletary with
cook already gone. Otherwise we're at risk of not.
Yeah. Ideally we would get both
Singletary and Pacheco and then we wouldn't be forced to take
the gain well and then we'd be live for two different Philly,
Super Bowls and have the running back from the AFC.
See, I think we shouldn't knock Singletary.
So belt. Couldn't have got yes, single
style. I wanted to be Max Patti.
I don't do a lot of these drafts so, you know.
You put me in here, you take AJ, Brown from me.
It's gonna happen. Yeah.
It is kind of tilting to get. I had one work.
The Allen guy took. AJ brown with digs on the board.
Like, I really want to. Yeah, I was at the way to I took
hurts, and then he took Alan. And then he had the choice of
digs or brown and took Brown Why just?
Yes, I don't know. I took then I just I stacked the
fuck out of the Eagles. To that that would tell me.
I don't know how you got. I mean, you guys have done
enough of these drafts. I'm still very naive to it, but
I would check my phone across the room.
Probably not the only beat the other thing we can do here from
an advancement angle if we want to just do.
So if we want to lack lockup is God or no.
God, it's gone. Like we could play through the
Jags to because we have well, no, we have the chiefs that
that's why I was suggesting a cowboy because we can ya it.
Obviously they'll get a limit in the Super Bowl but we won't have
them. Well, our Cincinnati.
Now would be the other team if we want to do like a Boyd Hurst
and Keep Us Alive. Be good or you can do Boyd
perine and keep your cell. We have to Buffalo, we have two
bills. You want to do that?
I'm saying, if we get three eagles, you can make yourself
live for different rather. Take a Eliza Mitchell or like
play. The other side of that bracket,
because I'm more worried about advancing and round to advancing
around to is harder than advancing around one.
Yeah, I just don't know how much Eli Mitchell's actually helping
us. I think he's gonna be available
for us here though. If we want to.
Yeah. Yeah.
I've just been kind of going, like, I've been picking a winner
of all four, and then trying to push more of it to the other
side of the bracket. When I have my quarter back in
stuff on, let's have an ifs quarterback.
Do more on the UFC, but I'm fine taking Mitchell here.
Let's do it. I think he fits that makes a
good point to just help us get out of Hope Has get to the Super
Bowl. Yeah if they did, they'd destroy
Dallas, he runs for 80 yards in the second half.
He's one of six. One of 12, right to get to get.
Yeah, I think it's twice as hard to get through the second round.
I could be think my preferred way constructionwise would be to
go gain well and perine and just keep the team's tire that were
trying to get. I like that because right now
because we don't we could still get gained well.
But right now we need the bills to make the Super Bowl because
we can't have the Niners, make the Super Bowl because then we
don't have a Glitz, not take perine then because help is ride
would be all or just take gain well and then make sure that we
have a running back in the Super Bowl.
Oh yeah, that's kind of a thinking now gained while to get
over yourself. Okay.
Yeah, that's why I'm saying, if you don't want the gain, well
picked and you need all your running backs to come from your
AFC team. That was belts.
He's definitely, you think he's watching the show?
I think, watching the show, he's not, he's not very happy with
us. It's no.
I mean, once once he goes down this path, right?
Like, once you do the A J Browne Sanders, like he should be
stacking this up. Make sense.
I'm down for peer on because now it really doesn't make sense
either. But so basically what we're
saying is we need an eagle Super Bowl and then we would be we
want to Field Five Guys in the starting lineup.
There's a starting lineup of five players in the Super Bowl
and so we can mix and match. We could go like five eagles and
have zero ones coming back but the way because we don't have
enough Firepower on the Eagles. We need our Super Bowl matchups.
All right to get us. Why don't you decide whether you
just lean into Philadelphia Buffalo?
Because the talent Gap when someone else is drafting Buffalo
players is chopping that off and I would like rather have a Tyler
boy than a Khalil Shakur. Yeah, it's kind of how I think
about it. That's why I end up with a lot
of Cowboys got to, I'm fine with that.
That's why I end up with a lot of cowboys because I feel like
when you get down this low like, you know, like Michael Gallup
and he'll be out there, doing feel good about quiz just to
have a I feel good about Quest. I'll go with ya as a stack for
sure. Ross says, is it best to try to
get three to four guys, on an NFC.
And three to four guys, on an AFC team.
I person hang on, let me make this pick.
You would should we just lock up Scott, or do you want to do
perine region? If you guys wanted to peer?
I don't mind. I'm fine with it.
Yeah, you don't really want chiefs in the Super Bowl with
how this team is constructed. We want them versus The Bangles
because we're not going to be able to get a Chiefs running
back. Unless we take Road Joe, there's
the yeah. Well, hang on though.
So right now we want to bills or Bangles first.
Philly Super Bowl. Right.
But we're guaranteed to lose. Two key players this week.
And then like, well, that's two pets points 10 to 12.
And you're already kind of behind the eight ball a little
bit. There are you?
I mean, everybody kind of is to an extent.
Yeah, that's what I've been. I've been trying to go like,
like only picking one one side of each game.
Yeah. Which obviously is one of the
game's blows up this? You're gonna have low Advanced,
right? But then, at least like I have
If I pick all the things right, I might have all my guys in
round two and then still having the potential to have five in
the Super Bowl. I guess I feel like you want to
be a stacked on two teams as you can possibly be even if it's
like Beasley and stuff at the end because you're not taking
them to win both games. Then and if there are any got it
you gotta get there. You're having to finish at the
top of your grouping and I know but that's what I'm saying is
like if the Bills win the AFC Championship, they're likely to
score more they're obviously scoring more points than the
other. AFC team their ancillary pieces
are more likely to then. Catch a random touch that like
these were scored last week, right?
Yeah, kind of concept like it's gonna like secure as a play, I'm
down. Yeah.
And now I mean, Shakira on this build makes a ton of sense, but
I have a feeling he'll go like a scenario where the conference
championships. I think you already know out.
You do want the two Super Bowl teams.
Completely stacked up in the conversation pitch, if they're
not likely to both be blowouts. But there are paths to where the
losing teams in the conference championships, almost no matter
because their offenses, don't do very well in a loss, you know?
I do. This is not for the team.
Making sure Boston Scott is Secure CHR.
Boston, Scott are the best picks for this wrong, but we don't
necessarily need a Chiefs running back.
We could go with the Chiefs receiver, I don't know if
anyone's no because then if we have, if we don't go Scott and
we get a chief Siegel show, you what we don't have a starting
running back. You're right?
Yeah, I just want to play sky more Club.
Yeah. So like to answer Ross's
question. I My Philosophy in general, is
as long as you can feel. The starting lineup with Five
Guys in the Super Bowl. I think it's okay.
And then It's just what are the things you need to do around
that to make sure you advance? Yeah, but I think it's worth
thinking through round two advancement as well as round one
advancement. So it's around six months ago so
I think we should take. See I'm down with that.
Yeah that's gross. It's really gross.
It is but the whole point is that you have on for the Super
Bowls. Yeah he might he might have
somehow secured a roll. Yeah, by the time we get like
three weeks from now. Do you guys want Ross?
Someone off. So yeah, like I had in a lot of
my Gauntlet teams like I was heavy, like, even on like a say,
a Niners Bangles build. I had DK Metcalf sprinkled in
there because I said I know I'm going to lose either this entire
team because the Niners lose or I'm going to lose Metcalf but
Metcalf is a guy who can help me advance when I am heavy on
teams. I'm taking Hayden hers, I'm
taking perine those guys aren't going to help me advance at
around 1. So you're trying to balance Max
correlation in the Super Bowl. Bowl while also getting some
guys who have a realistic ceiling of helping you advance,
and that's it. All comes back to the Jags and
Giants. Again, those guys give you some
like nice ceilings to help you advance even if your team's
losing one. Do one more.
Yeah. And now honestly was a pretty
rough draft. As far as like a lot of these,
they come cleaner like where you're not in each other's way
as much like that one battleship.
All right, influencer 101. I guess that's another case you
running back. Pat hasn't made a ballot for
yet. We need to get the CH.
Don't go well, the balance haven't really helped anyone
today. Yeah, that's a good point on, so
I'm not doing 144 McKinnon. We now need this comment at the
mini stack thing where he's doing a ton of Philadelphia plus
Richie James. I've been trying to think
through that same concept, but do it as Philadelphia plus the
Cowboys, and the Cowboys are because there The Cowboys are
playing those guys in round 2 and I drowned.
Yeah, they're live to ask the rabbits part of to advance in
that's where I want my life back.
That makes sense or Philadelphia Jacksonville, if you want it and
then don't play Casey. I mean, like at least give him a
live upset to then have both teams still alive.
Yeah, I don't really like playing both sides of a game,
you know, and I don't even have if it's 1 out of 6, 1 out of 12.
You guys want to take my home so you want a gal brain.
Let's go on down to gal brain but digs 101 ago Cowboys deck
what the fuck - he's because what does is bring up?
Like when you do a bunch of these, like the ATP is naturally
funneling you to certain combos, like we were discussing like
that gave Davis Dynamic with the Josh Allen, like, that's playing
out in draft after draft. And so, if you can flip a build
a little bit like, Cowboys are super cheap in this.
And so if you do want to play Cowboy, Super Bowl, you can
think creatively. About the AFC early guys, you
take. That's one thing Herzog was
doing was he was going City, limb 101.
And that one backfired, because the Cowboys got much much
cheaper as though people are getting Alan dips.
Yeah. People are getting Alan digs and
still being able to play the Cowboys late.
It's true, true. Yeah.
That's not really boxing you out because it would be more
anytime. Not going to put the build by
just giving up, Josh Allen and playing gigs in the rest of the
Cowboys is, you know, that's, that's You gotta do it.
You gotta gotta do it. I will say this, like, I'm not a
CD lamb guy, but his ATP is too low in this.
Their lives would beat the 49ers.
Yeah. They have a good offense and a
good defense and they're playing a seventh-round rookie.
I mean, let's come on. This pretty hype is so silly.
I say we just take skyborn next turn, flip the bill - long day.
It's how we got a couple badges. Let's let's see who's Out For
Blood. Who wants to watch the world
burn? Not a CD lamb guy.
Do you watch this whole cast? Jonathan fake Alpha.
I think Alpha steel and get him out of that outfit here.
He's gonna be able to give me T Higgins Over.
CD lamb. T Higgins.
On the Cowboys. Now we're cooking.
There we go. You see Deion Sanders on the
main cast, know what he said. They asked him about think
that's about CD land and they estimate CD lamb versus Michael
Irvin. He was like, What?
He's like CD lamps great. You know, he's but Michael was
Michael is like, don't don't ever say that again?
What the, okay, Dingus this makes zero fucking sense.
Now, I want blood. I want San Francisco.
God damn this guy. Alright Debo kiddo.
Let's go Debo Kettle. Yeah, you took CMC second?
Yeah yeah I mean, yeah, that's better.
See. San Fran, the Super Bowl is
gonna be money. That's, I honestly think that's
better. Okay.
You are a dingus. Now you have a San Francisco on
Casey at what it, what is this Dingus doing?
He just got. I told him CD.
Lamb was undervalued. He's like, how can I snipe and
get? He is the better bet zoo and
he's still Dingus. You know, dangus.
He's so they is doing what we were going to try to do.
The thing about the influencer 101 is the the viewers of the
stream can all pick twice until you get a pic again.
So there's your open tube right to the most possible snipe
scenarios when you're on the turn.
The stereo. Hmm.
Yeah. That's why are they giving us
the one we need to talk to Underdog, we need a better pick.
Did they not give you a bat phone to get a hold of them now
so that I don't have a bad head. Like the 101 here please.
Chick-fil-A zandi it's quite the username.
So we have. So this is the thing.
So Uncle Fester is on the same Super Bowl billed as us
Chick-fil-A and he is in his Cincinnati Lane conductor is in
his Buffalo Philly, Lane. They is just in a filly lane and
then Dingus is just fucking be in a dingus whatever.
Here comes the down, the stack with McCaffrey, you like
McCaffrey CD, lamb is so bad. Like it's no bad through 30
really. We thin to win the whole thing.
It is in been to your point that you were discussing earlier of
just like Al Fang, a team f off the rip.
I do think like the Bangles and the Eagles are ones to do it
because you can get them ATP wise as we're seeing both of
these teams do. And we know like two, three,
maybe even four, those guys could go off in a game, Y and C.
So he's playing the barter with either white Berkeley with
offense. I don't like that one.
It's also way hot. To advance in round two.
Why are you okay? Juju Juju.
I dare you. Dingus what is this cat?
Does he know you can only start to of these children.
A dude, we don't have the or Juju Tony, although we need to
think through the running back situation, Eli magic Pacheco.
I think we go Pacheco just to lock up that running back
running back. Yeah, I could see I like Tony
but the check on makes more sense.
It's nice to kind of balance out our, you know, in NASA to see
agent exposure. Yeah, in with, so you're gonna
say hermit kidding. Leverage in the FPC concert with
our Mahomes build. I mean, we're basically playing
the chief not just to get to the Super Bowl but probably win in.
I mean my homes have a big game in the Super Bowl.
I could be because they're trailing, but he's got to throw
touchdowns has got to be good. I mean, a lot of that correlates
well with Pacheco being in positive games group.
Yeah. And see, like what what easy
saying to is like? Now you have roster flexibility
here. Like if you are playing for
obviously we're playing for a Chiefs Niners Super Bowl.
Yeah that's what have you or thing like we can now start to
To, I still would love to get Tony, but like, you can start to
think about how do we best Advance, especially if they're
not Cowboys and Jay. That's how boys I like my other
bags. Yeah.
But I also would like to pick one side of the Eagles Giants.
Yeah. And the Buffalo Bangles, we
should do a little. We should have those jacket on
assets to us. Yeah, it's wide receivers.
Let's do them late for sure. Love that.
Yeah. How late can you get them?
Because they are live to beat the Eagles to the Giants.
Wide receivers are cheap Hodgins goes first, and then you got
Slaton. And then, Richie, James down
here. You can also do bills, ancillary
wide receivers as well, which would maybe go off in a shootout
with the Chiefs and I will say, well, Giants are on the other
side of the bracket we want Casey to beat the bills, like
Giants going all the way to the Super Bowl would be okay with
us. It the last thing we need to
think about guys is our running back advancement thing.
Like I was actually going to say we might need to take etn if he
falls because like the running back Cliff.
That's the one thing we've messed around with here is that
we just don't have enough points to even Advanced past the first
round. But but then we're just dealing
with the same problem in round 2 because he Tian is definitely
losing. We might need to take multiple
Chiefs, running backs. So we can start the Giants wide
receiver thing if we want. Didn't did Mitchell bargain?
Oh Hardman. Yeah, but I'm done with Mitchell
went. I've done pageants here?
Yeah, for sure. Yeah, I'm done with Hodgins.
It did get a little tight on what we're looking at.
Mvs went before us Tony, so just went three picks ago.
He almost made it back. I think we could probably sit on
Giants, running back to you. Just want to get Hardman here.
Yeah, he's not going to help it. He's probably not going to play
this week, right? Didn't practice today.
We could go elsewhere, then yeah, that's fun.
Oh, he's not going to play this week.
He didn't practice today. Not great.
Yeah, that's great. I I don't even like mine like a
fucking Hydra Chiefs running back Strat like Rocha CH.
It just feel like we're already betting on them going to the
Super Bowl. I didn't need.
Whoever what about just playing a check OU can you play one
running back? Of course.
Yeah I mean it's a better strategy when you have CM see
what I mean. Basically, we can take perine to
make it work. If you raw dog Pacheco, you
basically need an alpha Pacheco game followed by like a week
where the running back, one scores are like pretty muted,
right? And so the opportunity cost
you're not getting lapped by the other RV once.
So like if you could ping pong, that good Pacheco game one game
where he's mediocre, the other backs don't do much and you
sneak your way into the Super Bowl.
He falls into the end zone, don't you just need like ten
points for me? If my ceiling games the, but I'm
saying, if CMC goes for a 30 ball in every single team, in
your pod, has a 20-point head start on you.
That's really really hard to overcome.
That would be the second round or isn't our pot this or either
round trip either round is what I'm saying.
I'm saying you have to hit that thread that needle 3 times
essentially or two. If you want to say the Super
Bowl could be like Mi Sanders being fine.
It's a bummer that Mitchell went because that not just made a lot
of kind of performance. Yeah, flying Pacheco to do like
a Damien Williams thing in score, bunch of touchdowns over
three games. I don't think it's insane but
it's, I hear what that does to make it.
Our only path is a little bit. Yeah.
Because the opportunity cost of taking appear on or something.
Let's see if you guys want to do both the Giants receivers, I do
think we should get another running back I think since I
think Cincinnati running back definitely makes sense in this
Bill. Let's Do It.
Let's do since he running back which giant spiders here.
Chad, I know it's late. Only slightly.
He's like a he's a wash with Richie James button have PPR
week. Wow, wow.
Yeah, disrespect for the best wide receiver.
On the Giants chat saying awaited Jennings.
We probably should have taken Jennings over Hardman.
I think if we could like, think it through more but he does.
I mean, it's Jennings a ceiling player.
He's like a guaranteed six points.
He's going to catch two or three passes.
It's getting Intel. Brock pretty throws him.
Another hospital ball and Elite ice that one trained dog.
I know guy on Twitter thought was the best throw up Rock
person. That was so weird.
Listen to rock. Pretty bald out that entire
game, but he shows his worst throw, you don't suspect, that
was a horrible. What are we?
So I think there's literally just like Justin Watson.
Yeah, I don't like that Hiroshima.
We could go Chiefs wide receiver or Chiefs running back.
I think she's running back is probably the guy and we get that
mix up our exposure. Maybe make supper, it would be
nice, you know. Yeah, would be pretty sweet.
Yeah. Cuz I'm a little worried this
lineups. You know, duped right now?
Yeah, well that's one way to get unique, man.
All right guys, how to use check?
Just allow it to happen. Allowed to happen to you guys
for tuning in tonight. Best of luck divisional, round
weekend. We will see you guys next time.
Peace out.