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Alright guys, we are back for 
another ship. 

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Chasing minisode. 
We are back at our computers so 

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better audio better visuals Pat 
will be hopping on with us in a 

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second. 
We are going to be on the clock 

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here in the fifth round and a 
second will be, you know, 

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debating with Pat some options 
but circling back with grass 

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because Gretchen wasn't here for
our Marquis Brown pick. 

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But Gretsch, how are you feeling
about this? 

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Interesting team so far Jamar. 
Chase, Kyle pits T Higgins and 

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Marquis Brown through for. 
Yeah, I'm really, I'm really 

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liking it. 
I mean, it was a little bit of a

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bummer to lose AJ Brown in the 
third. 

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I think we talked through some 
reasons we would have probably 

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preferred Brown. 
They're maybe not as excited 

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about stacking Jason Higgins. 
In this format, as you might be 

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in like best ball or something. 
And so Brown was a target for 

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three Marquis brown and round 
for was it was an excited that 

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Community either of our picks 
for good. 

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I really like deante Johnson as 
well, but very comfortable, 

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going with Marquis Brown, Deion 
Sanders opponent. 

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Like 412, we're, I'm always very
comfortable with the 0r B build.

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You know, we're starting to head
now, back to our fifth round, 

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pick, and all the top options 
are receivers what you guys 

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talked about on the last mini. 
So, yeah, and you know, The I 

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think the big thing with the 
Chase and Higgins now is you 

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know kind of what we do at 
quarterback. 

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I know all of us prefer getting 
one of those Elite quarterbacks 

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we obviously have some very 
viable stacking candidates as 

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Pat enters here Pat we just 
started talking here but I think

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one of the interesting things in
Christian actually just posted 

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in the chat in the ship chasing 
Discord that he seen a wide 

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range of ATP for burrow. 
He said he went at 76 in one 

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draft in. 
L've in another but the Cuyler 

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kind of setup is pretty nice too
because Kyler went 72 in 84. 

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So you know that that eighth 
round spot for a quarterback is 

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starting to look kind of nice 
knowing like oh maybe Kyler 

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slips or maybe we just lock up 
Borough there but I don't know. 

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How are you guys thinking about 
quarterback as we kind of head 

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into what looks to be another 
wide receiver selection? 

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I mean I I'm I'm way higher on 
Cuyler than bro and I'm excited 

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about the potential to get Kyler
we were talking about how we 

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don't feel like we have to force
Borough. 

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Certainly the quarterback is the
least important part of that 

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stack. 
We still get some of that 

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element of, you know. 
This offense goes great. 

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We still get the two important 
pieces of that we get Jason 

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Higgins going. 
Great burrow can be covered by 

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Kyler frankly, you know, there's
a lot of scenarios were both of 

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these offenses. 
Go. 

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Well and kind of betting on that
as well with our mark. 

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He's round pick at the same 
time. 

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I think this element of like the
QB is at least important part of

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the stack type thinking is a 
little bit relative to the 

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situation. 
And when when we're talking 

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about the the bangle 
specifically which I'm picking 

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both Jason Higgins, we're 
talking about the offensive line

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being better talking about this 
team continuing to get better. 

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They improve their defense a 
little bit. 

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But being potentially a more 
pass, heavy team as well like 

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the Bengals outcome. 
I think our think they're 

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positive outcome for their 
passing game includes. 

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Basically them saying look to 
keep up with the chief. 

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In the bills, in the AFC, we got
to be as pass heavy as these 

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teams we have to, you know, our 
password over expecting you to 

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be pushing 10% like those guys 
are, if that happens, that's 

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great for us with Jason Higgins.
It also means Burrows, probably 

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throwing for, you know, five 
close to 5,000 yards and 40 TDS 

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in that scenario. 
And I think this is one where I 

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don't want to reach for Borough,
but as soon as I have both Jason

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Higgins, I do think you kind of 
want to be bringing Borough 

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along, right? 
If this goes well, in any kind 

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of way, feel like pros. 
Having a really, really strong 

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here, like in the MVP discussion
Pepe year. 

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Yeah, especially over a 
three-week period, right. 

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We're going to take down the 
main event. 

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We need Jason Higgins to go off 
in a way that 40 these combined.

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Yeah. 
Because we I mean that we were 

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talking on the last episode 
about, you know, the upside 

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isn't quite as high with Higgins
is with AJ, brown with this 

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build because the chances of 
hitting and Chase going nuclear 

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together isn't super, super 
high, but it does exist. 

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And in that scenario, Burrows, 
like the quarterback one that 

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Pretty easily. 
So I agree. 

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I think having Jason Higgins 
makes makes burrow more of a 

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priority. 
It's a little unfortunate that 

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like the way, the ADP lines up, 
we'll have to make a decision on

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burrow in the eighth with no 
real, good back up behind him. 

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If wanted to push it to try to 
get them in the night. 

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So, you know, like Kyle will 
already have been gone. 

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If we end up with Bateman here. 
Lamar Jackson would obviously 

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already be gone as well. 
So, I don't know, we'll have to 

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have to kind of cross that 
bridge when we come to it. 

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And one other thing to kind of, 
think about, and I noticed this 

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play out way more, in Underdog 
drafts, where people are really 

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prioritizing stacking, but there
is often a dynamic. 

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When you end up with Jason 
Higgins, it's not like the mix 

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and owner is going out of his 
way to stack. 

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So a lot of times you can get 
burrow to drop because you are 

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the most likely candidate to 
want burrow. 

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And it's not like there's a 
third wide receiver, you know, 

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pushing up there, boy. 
Hasn't already gone and someone 

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could justify a stack there. 
So it's kind of also trying to 

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feel out the room. 
We have seen in recent years. 

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People prioritize stacking and 
season-long a little bit more. 

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You see Bitcoin here from the to
whole did grab Justin Herbert 

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with Keenan Allen, but then you 
also see stuff like team nine 

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here, that just kind of took 
unstack Josh, Alan, you know, 

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getting that Elite quarterback. 
So it can be a little game of 

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chicken here because I don't 
think, you know, a room on the 

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whole is just gonna be like I'm 
passing on Joe burrow because I 

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don't have one of Chaser 
Higgins. 

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So we're going to have to kind 
of feel All that out. 

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I would, I would anticipate the 
priority here being on a teepee 

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value rather than yakking. 
So once bro, gets a few pics 

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past ATP, it starts to become a 
concern that someone just might 

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scoop it right. 
I know, I guess, I'm very 

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comfortable, taking Tyler. 
Like I said, I guess. 

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I don't want to wind up in a 
scenario where we get neither 

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because getting Kyla with 
Marquis Brown is definitely a 

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way to play this team without 
getting Borough. 

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Be very comfortable with that. 
There's not a lot of other ways 

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I'd like to play this team 
without having Borough as a key 

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be, you know what I mean? 
Yeah, well, I'll go ahead. 

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I mean, we have a decision to 
make here with Gabe Davis and 

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Bateman potentially, although we
were not on the clock yet, so 

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maybe the Dobbins owner, grabs 
Bateman or something and decides

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for us. 
But if we end up with Bateman 

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that would open up another 
possibility up for an elite 

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quarterback. 
Yeah. 

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And it's again, that's something
I like to do a lot. 

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Lot in the best ball contest is 
I definitely break ties in favor

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of you know, more outs for 
stacking. 

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So yeah, let's let's get into it
here. 

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Let's table the, the quarterback
conversation because we are 

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going to be selecting a receiver
here. 

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This is a really nice pocket of 
the draft for receiver. 

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You've heard us mention Gabe, 
Davis and Bateman. 

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I think that's who we're honing 
in on but DK Metcalfe also 

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available. 
Jerry Judy also available. 

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I think those guys are strong 
selections as well but Ric Like 

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we're all in agreement. 
This is a wide receiver pick for

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sure, right? 
Yeah, yeah, it's kind of I mean 

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the like your squarely in The 
Dead Zone with facts like Jacobs

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Gibson, Elijah Mitchell. 
I think he can make cases for 

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taking shots on guys like Gibson
and Elijah Mitchell but 

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typically those are dead zone 
type backs, where we've actually

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seen them produced to a certain 
level and yet drafters are still

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not buying in the ones that you 
do want to Target. 

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The Dead Zone. 
Tend to be the ones that are 

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like have the chance to be 
first-time stars, like etm was 

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Earlier, he's not really dead 
zone anymore, but like, yeah. 

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So looking most, he's back some 
like, JJ Dillon, goes a little 

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bit behind them. 
He's a guy who could do 

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something this year that we 
haven't seen from him yet. 

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And that's maybe what wide 
Rafters are a little skeptical. 

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The other backs that we have to 
pick from there. 

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They just look like the types of
facts that have been dead zone 

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backs in the past that the hit 
rate is very, very low on. 

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So I'm like intrigued by that 
but there's no way I would take 

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any of them over the receivers. 
Yeah, I've taken a fair amount 

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of Elijah Mitchell, invest ball.
It's, you know, usually at least

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around later than this. 
If not two. 

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So in we can look at this room 
and we mentioned Bitcoin here. 

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He has a true, 0r B, build going
here with just four wide 

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receivers one quarterback. 
But the, for the most part, for 

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everyone watching this, the 
YouTube member seeing this the 

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board up here, like all these 
other drafters are prioritizing 

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running backs. 
You know, we see David 

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Montgomery. 
Go in the third round etn. 

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Going the third round. 
This is a pretty running back 

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hungry. 
Room and I do feel like this is 

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where you can start to punish 
some of the early running back 

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drafters, because we're going to
keep hammering wide receiver, 

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they're gonna, you know, be 
like, Antonio Gibson does look 

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pretty nice here. 
And so, I think this is where we

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can really compound our 
advantage. 

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Let's hone in on the 
conversation here, the two names

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we've really zeroed in on our 
Gabriel Davis and Rashad 

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Bateman. 
I am shocked Pat being one of 

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the original hardcore Bateman 
truthers that that I am on 

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Bateman Island here. 
But why don't you guys first 

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make your case for Gabe Davis 
and just for the love of God 

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don't bring up the week 17 
matchup with the Bangles. 

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Well it is. 
I mean we were we were obviously

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so Bateman. 
I love Bateman, I think he's you

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know in line for a huge increase
in his role obviously with 

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Marquis Brown out of town. 
I do think with Bateman you have

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like very small concern that 
they could bring in another 

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receiver. 
I think they're they're one of 

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The candidates to bring in Julio
or will Fuller which I don't. 

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I mean is a is a guy really 
likes Bateman. 

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I would hardly make me like off 
him, but from an ATP value 

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perspective, it would certainly 
open up opportunities to get him

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at a better price later. 
And then, yeah, the Bengals to 

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play the bills in week 17 there 
to be kind of a fun sweat if 

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we're about to take down the 
main but I think we're Gabe 

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Davis. 
It's that he yeah, he hasn't 

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like really done it. 
Yet. 

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But he's a day, three pick. 
As a rookie he got on the field 

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right away had a had a big old 
wasn't bad, wasn't amazing but 

201
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but was like decently efficient 
actually a little bit more 

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efficient yards per hour on then
Bateman was last season and then

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last year including the playoffs
he was he had a yours /. 

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I ran over to in his second 
year, playing with Josh Allen 

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now entering the season, kind of
like I guess Twitter has been 

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sort of loudly arguing about 
Gabe Davis but Don't feel like 

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not like are we fully like 
internalizing the fact that in 

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his third season he really has 
no competition for the secondary

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outside role in this offense. 
It's also interesting, reading 

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the athletic and stuff. 
They're talking about maybe 

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using more to tight end sets and
that would be a big concern for 

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Crowder and Mackenzie who may be
splitting that slot roll, it 

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would be awesome for digs and 
Davis if they're competing 

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against like OJ, Howard for four
targets instead of crowder or 

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Mackenzie Hayden wakes has done 
some good research showing yards

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per hour, run spikes into wide 
receiver sets compared to three.

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So I think that was that mildly 
interesting but But also, just 

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like locks in the fact that like
he is the number two option. 

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He is the secondary outside wide
receiver Crowder's, not going to

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be playing over him on the 
outside. 

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I see that I was gonna go there 
that I think you're a little too

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certain of that because they can
just split knocks outside and 

223
00:12:03,700 --> 00:12:05,800
put both receivers on the same 
side of the formation. 

224
00:12:06,100 --> 00:12:09,100
They've done that with Beasley 
before, I think like maybe they 

225
00:12:09,100 --> 00:12:12,100
didn't run a lot of to wide 
receiver sets but he was for a 

226
00:12:12,100 --> 00:12:14,000
stretch, a guy that they were 
out. 

227
00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:17,200
Like if you're going to run two 
tight ends sets, you think 

228
00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:18,800
they're lining them up both in 
line or do. 

229
00:12:18,800 --> 00:12:21,100
They splitting knocks out, 
potentially It's basically what 

230
00:12:21,100 --> 00:12:24,000
I'm saying is a wide receiver. 
Yeah, Knox is getting split out 

231
00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:27,200
into the slot, probably into 
this, like he doesn't spread out

232
00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:29,100
like outside at all. 
I mean, I just, I don't think 

233
00:12:29,100 --> 00:12:31,200
that's like an exact thing in 
every snap. 

234
00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:33,700
I think you're right, but and 
I'm on the day beside as well 

235
00:12:33,700 --> 00:12:35,800
but that's probably not 
something that happens every 

236
00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:38,200
single time with a slot guys 
just don't yeah maybe not every 

237
00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:40,300
single time. 
Yeah but I think it's like maybe

238
00:12:40,300 --> 00:12:44,000
a little lost right now and 
people that like Crowder's 

239
00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:47,500
running with the second team. 
Mackenzie right now is running 

240
00:12:47,500 --> 00:12:50,800
with the first team. 
Like if you they can't it's so 

241
00:12:50,900 --> 00:12:52,800
stupid. 
The way the NFL does this but 

242
00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:55,600
like they're not allowed to just
be like MacKenzie's on the first

243
00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:58,100
team crowd was on the second 
team but if you read the stuff 

244
00:12:58,100 --> 00:13:01,200
it's like Crowder's catching 
passes from Chad Henne 

245
00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:06,000
MacKenzie's catching passes from
from Josh Allen, the beach do 

246
00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:08,100
think. 
Crowder will pass Mackenzie 

247
00:13:08,100 --> 00:13:10,400
eventually there. 
They've been impressed with him.

248
00:13:10,700 --> 00:13:14,000
You know Crowder's kind of the 
guy who can Beat Zone coverage, 

249
00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:16,200
very easily. 
Gets open underneath, you know, 

250
00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:20,900
Crowder's Crowder but it's like,
Crabbers, not coming for Gabe. 

251
00:13:20,900 --> 00:13:24,000
Davis, he's still trying to earn
a starting role in this offense,

252
00:13:24,300 --> 00:13:26,000
MacKenzie's not coming for gave 
Davis either. 

253
00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:30,000
So, I just think the two time 
and stuff for me is, is kind of 

254
00:13:30,008 --> 00:13:34,200
a way of also just like talking 
about how locked in Davis's is 

255
00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:38,400
the number 2. 
So the reason I'm coming at it, 

256
00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:42,400
a bit from the Bateman side and 
you do bring up a good point 

257
00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:45,600
that I wasn't really thinking 
through about how much Bateman's

258
00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:50,300
projection would change if they 
brought in a Julio or A Fuller 

259
00:13:50,300 --> 00:13:52,900
and, you know, some legit Target
competition because that's 

260
00:13:52,900 --> 00:13:54,400
really what I want to hang my 
hat on. 

261
00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:58,700
I mean, I have been taking Gabe.
Davis ahead of Bateman in best 

262
00:13:58,700 --> 00:14:01,900
Ball Mania, just because of the 
quintessential hashtag. 

263
00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:04,600
Better invest ball where I do 
think Gabe. 

264
00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:06,600
Davis is going to have massive 
games. 

265
00:14:06,700 --> 00:14:08,800
I just think he's going to be a 
little harder to know when to 

266
00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:11,100
start. 
And I know we're going to be 

267
00:14:11,100 --> 00:14:15,300
headed toward, you know, 78, 
legit, wide, receiver, build. 

268
00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:19,400
And I just feel like the upside 
case for Bateman were he emerges

269
00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:23,000
as Target hog in that offense. 
He's just going to be, you know,

270
00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:25,000
when we always talk about, what 
are we trying to do is your RV. 

271
00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:28,900
We're trying to get you know, 
seven you know top 15 wide 

272
00:14:28,900 --> 00:14:31,100
receivers or however many top 15
receivers. 

273
00:14:31,100 --> 00:14:34,300
It feels like Bateman would be 
such an easy Plug and Play start

274
00:14:34,300 --> 00:14:37,700
that even in Davis's like 
high-end outcomes that don't 

275
00:14:37,700 --> 00:14:41,500
involve a digs injury that he 
still a little volatile from a 

276
00:14:41,500 --> 00:14:43,600
week-to-week standpoint. 
Not that I'm, you know, running 

277
00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:47,100
away from the volatility but it 
just seems like it Bateman hits 

278
00:14:47,100 --> 00:14:50,600
his high-end range of outcomes. 
He's just such an Easy Plug and 

279
00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:54,500
Play start in the same way. 
Like DJ more has become that I 

280
00:14:54,500 --> 00:14:58,500
just did my projections for both
these teams and I would this is 

281
00:14:58,500 --> 00:15:00,200
the exact type of players that I
don't want to pay a lot of 

282
00:15:00,208 --> 00:15:03,500
potential attention to the 
projections or similar to the 

283
00:15:03,500 --> 00:15:05,200
the DeadZone hack stuff. 
We're talking about because 

284
00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:06,900
they're back there guys. 
That were betting on to do 

285
00:15:06,900 --> 00:15:09,100
something we haven't seen yet. 
It's very hard to capture that 

286
00:15:09,100 --> 00:15:10,700
in a projection. 
I thought about this a lot with 

287
00:15:10,700 --> 00:15:13,700
Sean on our recent stealing 
bananas, I made a comment about 

288
00:15:13,700 --> 00:15:15,300
Wanda more. 
We're like I want to project him

289
00:15:15,300 --> 00:15:17,700
higher. 
He asked me specifically, how 

290
00:15:17,700 --> 00:15:19,500
can you get these upside stuff 
in a projection? 

291
00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:21,900
It's really hard like for both 
Bateman and Davis. 

292
00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:24,600
The the scenario we're talking 
about is probably that they beat

293
00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:28,100
the projection I have from them 
for by like 50% and I can't bake

294
00:15:28,100 --> 00:15:31,300
that in really. 
So believe the fact that I have 

295
00:15:31,300 --> 00:15:33,700
Davis projected about 20 points,
higher is not. 

296
00:15:33,700 --> 00:15:35,000
The reason I would make this 
case. 

297
00:15:35,300 --> 00:15:38,700
The thing about my projections 
that I'm really interested in. 

298
00:15:38,700 --> 00:15:41,700
I want to talk to you guys about
is actually trying to drill down

299
00:15:41,700 --> 00:15:44,900
into what the Ravens will do 
from a past perspective and I 

300
00:15:44,900 --> 00:15:47,400
actually should probably just 
share my screen here and show 

301
00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:48,500
you guys my projections in 
there. 

302
00:15:48,500 --> 00:15:52,500
Yeah, and level numbers. 
Because it's it's pretty 

303
00:15:52,500 --> 00:15:54,300
interesting. 
I think Pat did a really good 

304
00:15:54,300 --> 00:15:58,700
job with the Gabe Davis bull 
case and I agree with almost all

305
00:15:58,700 --> 00:16:02,200
of that even though I was going 
to talk about that 12 wide 

306
00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:05,800
receiver set thing, but let me 
zoom in, this is the, the Ravens

307
00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:10,000
team stuff in the middle here 
that I want to highlight can 

308
00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:11,400
because you can see this 
poisonous. 

309
00:16:11,700 --> 00:16:15,100
No, not. 
Yeah, yeah. 

310
00:16:15,100 --> 00:16:17,300
Oh yeah yeah we're gonna go this
stuff here. 

311
00:16:17,300 --> 00:16:21,900
So first of all 2021 their plays
per game, led the NFL so that 

312
00:16:21,900 --> 00:16:24,200
was part of the reason they 
threw so much more was that they

313
00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:26,900
ran a ton of place. 
They they've been very 

314
00:16:26,900 --> 00:16:30,300
fast-paced before back in 2018. 
They are not exactly slow Place 

315
00:16:30,300 --> 00:16:31,800
team but I do expect that comes 
down. 

316
00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:35,000
I'm projecting it to come down 
to like 65.5 still well above 

317
00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:37,800
League average. 
Their pass rate called pass 

318
00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:41,500
rate. 63 percent last year, 
under 50%, of the last two 

319
00:16:41,500 --> 00:16:43,700
years. 
I don't know where to put That 

320
00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:45,700
right. 
So then you look at their 

321
00:16:45,700 --> 00:16:47,400
password over expected. 
This is another really 

322
00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:49,600
interesting thing. 
They're actually not like pass 

323
00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:51,800
heavy relative to expectation 
because they only had an eighth 

324
00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:53,900
win season. 
They Trail the lat they're 

325
00:16:53,900 --> 00:16:56,400
Vegas. 
Total for this year is 9.5 and 

326
00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:59,600
this is just a little linear 
regression Iran, where they're 

327
00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:02,100
expected pass rate. 
Where last year, it was up 

328
00:17:02,100 --> 00:17:06,400
around 63% at a 9.5 win. 
Total would expect it to be more

329
00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:09,800
like, 59 or 60 percent and they 
weren't even positive in the 

330
00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:12,099
pyaari category. 
I think a lot of that was Team 

331
00:17:12,099 --> 00:17:14,500
level that pushed it. 
Their Pace was Team level or 

332
00:17:14,508 --> 00:17:16,400
trailing. 
They were playing fast and a lot

333
00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:19,400
of these games, they were also a
little bit slightly past heavier

334
00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:22,099
in the games that Lamar missed. 
You missed five games last year,

335
00:17:22,500 --> 00:17:24,400
but you look at these PR oh, 
he's right. 

336
00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:28,099
Three years in a row - 6 
percent, 7 percent 10 percent. 

337
00:17:28,099 --> 00:17:32,300
Those are very very - I'm not 
saying again that I think for 

338
00:17:32,300 --> 00:17:34,000
sure they're going to be 
negative but I don't know where 

339
00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:37,000
to put this pass, right? 
I ended up going with 58% just 

340
00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:40,200
slightly negative but even just 
doing that ended up, putting 

341
00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:42,500
them back to a team that with 
Lamar scramble, right? 

342
00:17:42,500 --> 00:17:45,400
And everything. 
Is basically 50/50 past run. 

343
00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:48,900
I have the Bateman at a twenty 
percent Target share. 

344
00:17:48,900 --> 00:17:51,700
I have them I think pretty 
comfortable because if you look 

345
00:17:51,700 --> 00:17:54,100
at the the stuff like targets 
per hour, run yards per hour, 

346
00:17:54,108 --> 00:17:56,900
run Bateman the other part of 
the Bateman concern. 

347
00:17:56,900 --> 00:17:59,500
And I want to be on him for 
sure, is that he didn't have a 

348
00:17:59,508 --> 00:18:01,600
great rookie year. 
He Davis, his rookie year was 

349
00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:04,000
actually better his rookie year.
And then his second year was a 

350
00:18:04,008 --> 00:18:06,300
big step forward in yards per 
hour run for Davis. 

351
00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:10,600
He looks closer from those 
perspectives to like a big break

352
00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:12,600
out. 
I still think you want to be on 

353
00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:14,700
that year too. 
Seaver but with Bateman it feels

354
00:18:14,700 --> 00:18:17,000
like a two-step. 
We gotta get him playing better 

355
00:18:17,300 --> 00:18:20,400
and we got to get this passed 
right stuff to where they don't 

356
00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:23,000
regress too much and I think 
because there's the play volume 

357
00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:25,200
and the actual pass rate 
element. 

358
00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:30,100
I'm pretty concerned about how 
much they're going to lose in 

359
00:18:30,100 --> 00:18:34,300
terms of overall past volume. 
And the other part of that that 

360
00:18:34,300 --> 00:18:37,700
I would add as well as look Josh
Oliver was decent last year for 

361
00:18:37,700 --> 00:18:40,400
them and they went out and they 
drafted two tight ends. 

362
00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:43,700
This is there receiver room 
right now and they went heavier 

363
00:18:43,700 --> 00:18:47,300
on Titans again. 
They've been very too tight and 

364
00:18:47,300 --> 00:18:49,300
heavy in the past. 
They already have Nick Boyle 

365
00:18:49,300 --> 00:18:52,500
coming back and they still 
drafted, two tight ends you go 

366
00:18:52,500 --> 00:18:55,900
over to their their depth chart.
And I'm looking at that I'm 

367
00:18:55,900 --> 00:18:57,300
going I can't even name their 
fifth time. 

368
00:18:57,400 --> 00:18:59,600
I can't even in their fifth 
receiver, as easily as I can in 

369
00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,500
their fifth tight end right now.
Like, this is a team that looks 

370
00:19:02,500 --> 00:19:05,600
like the Ravens teams that were 
very tight on heavy and looks 

371
00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:07,200
like they want to get back to 
running the ball. 

372
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:09,000
You think about from a team 
perspective last year didn't go 

373
00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:11,800
well for them. 
And the years before did I think

374
00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:14,000
they probably are saying? 
We want to get back to playing 

375
00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:17,600
the way we played in 2020, in 
2019, from a team perspective. 

376
00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:22,600
It's I don't want to be too in, 
on team volume ever, but I think

377
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:24,500
these numbers are really 
interesting, especially the play

378
00:19:24,500 --> 00:19:25,900
volume was one that really 
caught my eye. 

379
00:19:27,100 --> 00:19:31,400
Now you guys that you're 
definitely, you know, Swang me 

380
00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:34,500
here to and again just thinking 
about you know, it's the same 

381
00:19:34,500 --> 00:19:36,600
thing with the best ball stuff. 
It's like our objective is to 

382
00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:40,400
win a million dollars in this 
tournament and just because, you

383
00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:43,200
know, Bateman could be 
averaging, you know, two to 

384
00:19:43,208 --> 00:19:46,300
three more targets a game, then 
gave Davis down the stretch and 

385
00:19:46,300 --> 00:19:49,000
have a higher Target floor. 
It doesn't change the fact that 

386
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:53,400
it's far more likely that gave 
Davis puts up a 40 Burger weeks,

387
00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:55,600
15 through 17. 
When we're chasing a million 

388
00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:57,100
then Bateman who might desire 
for. 

389
00:19:57,100 --> 00:19:59,800
Floor but are the Ravens pass 
offense going to be able to 

390
00:19:59,808 --> 00:20:02,600
support just in a Russian. 
So that's it. 

391
00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:04,700
That's where I wanted to go with
Landing that plane. 

392
00:20:04,700 --> 00:20:07,200
Sorry, was that you were talking
about the Vault Tilly the upside

393
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:09,900
Center, for payment is a ton of 
targets, but if they don't throw

394
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:13,000
as much as last year, which is 
going to be too hard to do a 

395
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:18,200
really high rate in and I'm in a
ton of place per game Bateman, I

396
00:20:18,208 --> 00:20:20,300
think Sunday fallible to think 
of all the years of Marquis 

397
00:20:20,300 --> 00:20:23,000
Brown and Mark Andrews, being a 
lot more volatile until just 

398
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:25,600
last year, right? 
And he still probably pretty 

399
00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:27,000
clearly behind the Andrews in a 
way. 

400
00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:29,300
Marquis Brown for some some time
was. 

401
00:20:29,300 --> 00:20:31,300
Maybe they would like to talk to
you guys. 

402
00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:33,000
Thank you. 
Gotta think that Andrews is 

403
00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:36,700
probably their clear top option.
I think Bateman's even in a 

404
00:20:36,708 --> 00:20:40,600
scenario where he's really good,
if the team stuff does regress. 

405
00:20:40,700 --> 00:20:43,300
And while trying to highlight is
that it seems very likely to 

406
00:20:43,300 --> 00:20:47,400
regress that he's going to be 
volatile to and the sheer past 

407
00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:51,200
volume for Davis who I the way 
other way, I'd put it as from a 

408
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:54,000
personal perspective. 
I think I am projecting Bateman 

409
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:57,600
sort of closer to his ceiling. 
He can definitely Be that twenty

410
00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:00,200
percent market share but I 
didn't project Davis very high 

411
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,400
but that's a team that looks 
very comfortably, like they're 

412
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:06,900
going to throw enough that. 
There's room for him to beat his

413
00:21:06,900 --> 00:21:10,900
projection in for me a lot more 
than there is for Bateman when 

414
00:21:10,900 --> 00:21:12,400
I'm looking at it from those 
perspectives. 

415
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,100
Yeah, I have. 
Oh God. 

416
00:21:16,100 --> 00:21:18,400
The the past attempts, I have 
for the Ravens. 

417
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:22,500
I think I had 529 pass attempts 
for the Ravens switches. 

418
00:21:22,700 --> 00:21:24,800
I think what seven less than you
had. 

419
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:28,900
So like yeah we're in agreement 
on where I think the Ravens will

420
00:21:28,900 --> 00:21:32,000
go and I was you know, I've been
probate and despite the 

421
00:21:32,100 --> 00:21:34,700
offensive, you know, low volume 
situation. 

422
00:21:34,700 --> 00:21:37,700
But but yeah, I think I think 
it's regressing in the same way 

423
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:41,500
that you do. 
He's got a merge As a Target on 

424
00:21:41,500 --> 00:21:45,000
her in a way, he didn't really 
last season, the athletic had a 

425
00:21:45,008 --> 00:21:48,900
good nugget, you know, pointing 
out that his Target for Ron was 

426
00:21:48,900 --> 00:21:52,900
quite a bit higher. 
It was 19% with Jackson last 

427
00:21:52,900 --> 00:21:56,700
year to like 14 and a half 
percent with Huntley. 

428
00:21:57,300 --> 00:22:00,500
So I think, you know, he's 
finally getting healthy Jackson 

429
00:22:00,500 --> 00:22:02,900
goes out, he has to deal with 
Huntley and I think that really 

430
00:22:02,900 --> 00:22:06,100
hurt his rookie season but but 
still generally like Bateman's 

431
00:22:06,100 --> 00:22:10,000
rookie season, I think sets him 
up more for like a year. 

432
00:22:10,300 --> 00:22:12,800
Three breakout it gets type of 
year where you're in year 2, 

433
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:17,200
he's he looks good and then 
going into year three, we're 

434
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:20,600
like, okay, this guy could this 
guy could break into being like 

435
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:24,000
a true wide, receiver want, 
maybe in the same way like we're

436
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,100
projecting for Michael Pittman 
or something like that. 

437
00:22:26,100 --> 00:22:28,100
Like, I think he's maybe on more
like that trajectory. 

438
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:32,900
So then just kind of one. 
I mean, you guys have sold me on

439
00:22:32,900 --> 00:22:36,900
Davis over Bateman obviously, we
have to see what this team for 

440
00:22:36,900 --> 00:22:39,500
does here. 
But let's just say they take 

441
00:22:39,900 --> 00:22:43,900
Dave The only other name that, 
you know, kind of could fit 

442
00:22:43,900 --> 00:22:48,000
similar criteria would be, would
we consider Jerry Judy over 

443
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:51,800
Bateman or is Bateman still a 
really, really nice, consolation

444
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:55,400
prize for you guys. 
Yeah, I don't want to be out on 

445
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:56,900
Bateman for the second year 
stuff. 

446
00:22:56,900 --> 00:22:59,900
I was actually kind of sharing 
that stuff not to say that my 

447
00:22:59,900 --> 00:23:02,200
opinion is like ingrained. 
I was kind of curious what you 

448
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:05,400
guys thought about that. 
Like, where would you put is the

449
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:07,900
pastor and so padded, thank you 
for sharing your past attempts 

450
00:23:07,900 --> 00:23:12,200
because I struggled with that 
big Time I still want to be in 

451
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,500
on Bateman your to. 
It was interesting that you just

452
00:23:14,500 --> 00:23:16,700
said that his Target spot on a 
lot higher. 

453
00:23:16,700 --> 00:23:19,600
With Jackson about 19.5%. 
I just pulled a marquis Brown 

454
00:23:19,900 --> 00:23:21,500
three straight years. 
Over 20 percent. 

455
00:23:21,500 --> 00:23:25,400
You actually went 20 21 22 and 
23 years in Baltimore was a good

456
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:28,000
pick last year, but even that 
second season for him, a lot of 

457
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:30,400
people were targeting and him in
this range and he was a pretty 

458
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,800
big disappointment because of 
the team level stuff. 

459
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,800
Even though it's targets print, 
run, we're good, they were up 

460
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:39,800
over 21%, his yards per outrun, 
strong that would be a step 

461
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:43,000
forward for The type of stuff 
for you were just talking about 

462
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:47,800
and and it's better than what he
had even with Jackson and those 

463
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:50,900
splits, it would be a pretty 
clear step forward. 

464
00:23:50,900 --> 00:23:53,200
It can will be which we need. 
Yeah. 

465
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:54,900
And but that's that's the idea 
of a second. 

466
00:23:54,900 --> 00:23:57,600
Your breakup to an extent is 
that you you would see a jump 

467
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:02,300
and I think the 19% numbers it's
bullish in a sense like he if 

468
00:24:02,300 --> 00:24:05,400
he's at 19 percent this year, 
he's failed like straight up. 

469
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:09,600
He will have a failure of a year
if he's at 19 percent but 

470
00:24:10,300 --> 00:24:14,500
Getting to, like, 22% from 15% 
or whatever. 

471
00:24:14,500 --> 00:24:19,000
He was at with Huntley is like, 
that's a really, that's a really

472
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:22,700
big leap that you need someone 
to make getting there from 19%. 

473
00:24:22,700 --> 00:24:25,500
Where it was a Jackson, is like,
much more realistic. 

474
00:24:25,500 --> 00:24:28,200
So, that's, that's why I think 
it makes me feel better even 

475
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:34,400
though, yeah, he's definitely 
take a step forward but Pete, to

476
00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:38,400
get back to your point. 
I mean, I think I'm still 

477
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:42,900
comfortable getting Bateman I 
just I guess the way that I 

478
00:24:42,900 --> 00:24:46,000
would argue it as I think he is 
a little bit overpriced and yet 

479
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:47,600
I still want to have exposure to
these year. 

480
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:50,900
Two guys, there are scenarios as
you've alluded to where he's 

481
00:24:50,900 --> 00:24:54,500
just really, really good and 
that would impact their pass 

482
00:24:54,500 --> 00:24:57,600
rate if Bateman is just that 
good if they traded Marquis 

483
00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:59,700
Brown because they actually saw 
something that we're not really 

484
00:24:59,700 --> 00:25:02,100
seeing. 
In the numbers, they took them 

485
00:25:02,100 --> 00:25:04,400
in the first round last year. 
There are these, you know, these

486
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:08,800
arguments, right? 
So Judy and Metcalfe are 

487
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:12,200
intriguing to though. 
I mean it's Where did where did 

488
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,100
you didn't land for you in the 
projections been? 

489
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:18,300
I have not done Denver yet. 
I did do Seattle and I'm not 

490
00:25:18,300 --> 00:25:20,100
optimistic on that cast 
projection. 

491
00:25:21,900 --> 00:25:27,600
I had a really hard time with 
Jerry Judy and the Denver wide 

492
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:29,200
receivers just projecting the 
routes. 

493
00:25:29,500 --> 00:25:34,400
Like there's just not enough 
routes on that team and they're 

494
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:38,000
talking about like the buzz 
right now is that Judy is not a 

495
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:39,900
starter in to wide receiver 
sets. 

496
00:25:40,500 --> 00:25:42,900
He would he would be starting 
probably of the slot and three 

497
00:25:42,900 --> 00:25:48,000
wide receiver sets but I also 
like don't on the one hand like 

498
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:51,200
that's bad because he also have 
a Handler. 

499
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,100
He also have like I like dulse, 
it's a lot which you know, maybe

500
00:25:54,100 --> 00:25:57,300
they run some more to wipers too
tight, it's too tight ends sets,

501
00:25:57,300 --> 00:26:00,000
you know, in there there isn't. 
It's quite as much 11 personnel,

502
00:26:00,900 --> 00:26:03,400
which would hurt you T if these 
reports are true. 

503
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:07,000
But on the other hand like I 
think Judy might be their best 

504
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:11,200
receiver, so I don't want to get
carried away with, you know, 

505
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:16,600
July Personnel, projections and 
stuff like yeah. 

506
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:18,600
I'm kind of struggling with what
to do with Judy. 

507
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:23,600
Judy is a hard one and you know 
a couple Pros for Judy would be 

508
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:26,200
one again. 
He gives us another really nice 

509
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:28,800
stacking candidate. 
You know, Russell Wilson's going

510
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:32,700
about around after Joe burrow 
right now on FF PC so that gives

511
00:26:32,700 --> 00:26:35,000
us another backstop if we miss 
out on. 

512
00:26:35,100 --> 00:26:38,000
Burro, you also have kind of 
similar to the Gabe. 

513
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,400
Davis, some pretty big 
contingent upside, right? 

514
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:44,700
Like if you know, Patrick or 
Sutton got hurt in Judy really 

515
00:26:44,700 --> 00:26:47,800
could kind of elevate to Target 
hog as Russell Wilson's. 

516
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,900
Number one option. 
That's pretty tantalizing as 

517
00:26:50,900 --> 00:26:54,700
well, but I do agree that it 
could be a little rocky 

518
00:26:54,800 --> 00:27:01,400
otherwise, Yeah, yeah, I'm with 
you guys. 

519
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:05,800
I don't really know how to place
the the roles in that offense. 

520
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:09,300
There's probably upside, 
regardless, there's contingent 

521
00:27:09,300 --> 00:27:13,000
upside for all of them, if, you 
know, not everybody's healthy, 

522
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:17,500
and it's not as much of a log 
Jam as we think, I'm also, maybe

523
00:27:17,500 --> 00:27:20,200
just not completely sold on Judy
as a talent yet, but he was 

524
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:22,500
pretty hurt last year. 
And, and so, I, you know, I 

525
00:27:22,500 --> 00:27:24,900
wasn't really necessarily sold 
after his rookie year. 

526
00:27:24,900 --> 00:27:30,200
And so that could, that could be
That I'm just wrong on and, you 

527
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:33,600
know, I'm willing to definitely 
hear Pro Arguments for him. 

528
00:27:34,300 --> 00:27:39,200
I think the bull case for Judy 
would be there's optimism about 

529
00:27:39,300 --> 00:27:42,000
this offense. 
I mean, obviously Russell Wilson

530
00:27:42,100 --> 00:27:44,300
coming as a gigantic upgrade, 
but you're also seeing that 

531
00:27:44,300 --> 00:27:49,400
optimism reflected in fact that 
Sutton went in the mid 4th here.

532
00:27:50,100 --> 00:27:54,900
And so there's like optimism and
probably over confidence in the 

533
00:27:54,900 --> 00:27:59,800
way the targets break out. 
So to get Judy who's like, I 

534
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:04,200
think probably like a very equal
like if we're just like 

535
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,100
projecting, who's the better 
player like Judy. 

536
00:28:06,100 --> 00:28:08,300
And Sutton to me that feels 
super close. 

537
00:28:08,700 --> 00:28:13,200
So to get him around after 
Sutton is pretty nice. 

538
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,600
I think for me gave Davis is 
more intriguing. 

539
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:22,300
But Judy verse Bateman is 
definitely, definitely tough, 

540
00:28:22,300 --> 00:28:24,600
and I feel like I'm kind of like
flipping coins there. 

541
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:26,500
Invest ball, where I know, I can
get them both. 

542
00:28:27,500 --> 00:28:29,400
Over a large portfolio. 
Are you guys pretty out on 

543
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:30,700
Metcalf? 
Just because like you feel like 

544
00:28:30,700 --> 00:28:35,500
his price might fall even more. 
Well, they're not getting Baker.

545
00:28:35,700 --> 00:28:40,600
So what's happening? 
You know, I think losing that 

546
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,400
out is, is a big deal? 
Yeah. 

547
00:28:44,100 --> 00:28:48,400
And, and I mean, again, I the 
similar kind of thing I do with 

548
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:50,000
the underdog. 
I mean, I'm viewing this 

549
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:52,700
tournament through, like, who 
can put up a couple 30-point 

550
00:28:52,700 --> 00:28:56,900
weeks, weeks, 15 through 17 and 
it just feels like gay Bateman 

551
00:28:56,900 --> 00:28:59,700
and Judy are all better 
candidates to do that. 

552
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:01,800
Then whoever's throwing DK 
Metcalf the ball. 

553
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:03,900
I mean, we know he's capable of 
it. 

554
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:07,400
As a player but man that it's 
the reason he's going here in 

555
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:10,600
the first place, but it's almost
like I don't think it's a bad 

556
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:14,000
value per se. 
But man, I just the way we're 

557
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:16,700
going to load our team up with 
wide receivers. 

558
00:29:16,700 --> 00:29:20,100
He's another one that just feels
like it was just like whatever. 

559
00:29:20,100 --> 00:29:24,000
Breakout guy we take later, you 
know, our Elijah more, our Drake

560
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:25,300
lighted. 
It feels like by the end of the 

561
00:29:25,300 --> 00:29:27,400
season, we're just for sure. 
Starting that guy over DK. 

562
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:31,100
Metcalf well idk metcalf's. 
Good weeks are going to be like 

563
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:34,900
480 and to, right. 
You know what I mean? 

564
00:29:34,900 --> 00:29:39,800
Like you're just kind of I don't
think we're getting any, any 

565
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:45,000
kind of like, you know, 8 420 + 
1. 

566
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:48,300
You know what I'm saying? 
Yeah, that seems hard. 

567
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:52,700
Um, I actually have to get 
running, I have a call, I forgot

568
00:29:52,700 --> 00:29:55,200
about, but I felt like this was 
a good discussion. 

569
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:58,600
It seems like we've definitely 
landed on Gabe Davis here, and, 

570
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:01,500
you know, maybe we can, we'll 
have a little final combo if 

571
00:30:01,500 --> 00:30:04,500
Gabe does go, and we need to 
decide between Bateman and Judy.

572
00:30:04,500 --> 00:30:06,500
But, feeling good about this 
one. 

573
00:30:06,500 --> 00:30:08,900
And And I like how this team is 
shaping up, guys. 

574
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,100
All right, guys, if you are 
listening to the audio version 

575
00:30:14,100 --> 00:30:16,800
of this, you can get access to 
the video ones by becoming a 

576
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:19,700
ship chasing member, YouTube 
member also get you access to 

577
00:30:19,700 --> 00:30:21,500
our Discord. 
We will see you guys when we are

578
00:30:21,500 --> 00:30:23,400
on the clock for our sick from 
thing. 

579
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:23,700
These