1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,600 Forget the weak takes, the safe takes, the predictions that 2 00:00:03,600 --> 00:00:08,000 won't make you look silly. No, it's time for truly bold 3 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:10,520 predictions. And not just any kind of bold 4 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:12,800 predictions. These are the types of fantasy 5 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:17,880 takes that can only be coaxed out via a super special truth 6 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:20,760 serum. I rounded up 26 of the best 7 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:23,800 fantasy analysts and best ball players across the space, and I 8 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:27,320 told them to stop what they're doing, drink this truth juice, 9 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:30,400 and then share with me. Share with us their deepest, 10 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:34,200 darkest secret about the 2025 football season that they 11 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:37,320 otherwise would be too scared to share publicly. 12 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:40,680 I'm Pete Overzeat, this is the Deposit Kingdom, and these are 13 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:44,560 the things your favorite tout actually believes will happen 14 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:48,360 this year. We got 27 truth serum takes to 15 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:52,240 get to, and we are going to countdown from #27 all the way 16 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:55,880 down to #1 to kick things off. We're starting with ETR 17 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:59,480 wunderkind Jack Miller, who immediately pissed me off with 18 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:03,160 this take considering this QB is one of my most drafted. 19 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:06,360 My truth serum isn't that hot of a take, but it's pushing back on 20 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:08,720 the idea that Bryce Young suddenly became a good NFL 21 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:10,480 quarterback over the second-half of last year. 22 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:14,240 Once he was reinserted into the starting lineup in Week 8, he 23 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:16,880 averaged 6.6 yards per attempt. The only reason people are 24 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:20,040 talking about him as if he took a a big leap forward is because 25 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:24,240 he had 15 past touchdowns in 10 games and five rushing 26 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:26,080 touchdowns in those ten games as well. 27 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:29,240 Even after the Panthers by he was only at 6.9 yards per 28 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:32,840 attempt and he was below average in EPA per play as well. 29 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:35,800 It was technically a step forward because for the first 30 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:39,280 year of his career he was literally the worst quarterback 31 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:41,880 in NFL history. But he was still solidly a below 32 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:44,280 average quarterback over the second FL last year, and I think 33 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:45,960 it's overstated how much he improved. 34 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:49,080 All right, Jack, we get it. You hate Bryce Young, you hate 35 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:51,280 fun. No wonder you get along so well 36 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:54,160 with Leone. Next up we have a truth serum 37 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:58,000 take from the queen of waivers and Leg UPS dynasty maven. 38 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:03,760 It's Steph Miller. Steph Miller AKA Super Shorty 39 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:08,160 AKA Pete Overset's official best ball grader here and I just took 40 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:14,000 a giant sip of juice. Sarah, I am addicted to drafting 41 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:17,120 Cowboys running backs. Last year Rico Dotto was my 42 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:20,840 highest drafted player and this year my Cowboy choice is a 43 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:23,880 little bit grosser. Miles Sanders. 44 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:28,840 Not only can I not stop drafting Miles Sanders, but I believe 45 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:32,000 that he could lead the Cowboys backfield this year. 46 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:34,440 Now listen, that's not saying much. 47 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:39,240 My argument isn't that Sanders is good, but rather Javante 48 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:41,680 Reliance was one of the most inefficient facts last year. 49 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:47,320 Hasn't run for 90 yards in a single game since 2021, despite 50 00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:50,120 being in a situation with ample opportunity on the Broncos. 51 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:53,480 Last year, the Cowboys only spent a fifth round draft pick 52 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:56,600 on Jaded Blue, who's arguably more of a fast catcher than a 53 00:02:56,600 --> 00:03:01,080 running back, and a seventh round pick on Phil Moffa, whose 54 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:04,400 prospect profile is uninspiring at best. 55 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:09,760 Miles Sanders right now has an underdog ADP of 198. 56 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:14,200 He's a cheap bet on an ambiguous situation that could pay off in 57 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:17,120 a big way. So now you know the truth. 58 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:20,840 If you want a good grade from me, go draft some Miles Sanders. 59 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:24,760 Props to Steph for actually taking a sip of the serum on 60 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:28,800 camera, even if she's clearly a blatant Dallas Homer. 61 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:32,680 Next up we got a tournament game theory take from Legendary 62 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:35,440 Upside's Michael Dubner. My truth serum take is that I 63 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:37,680 couldn't care less about projected ownership in 64 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,080 basketball. While in daily games we can 65 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:42,920 reasonably project ownership, basketball is a different beast. 66 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:45,680 The multi round format of basketball tournaments makes 67 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:49,400 projected ownership irrelevant because ownership gets jumbled 68 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:51,480 in each new round. We have no clue what the 69 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:53,120 ownership in the finals will be like. 70 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:56,640 Plus there's the catch 22 where the high to own players in the 71 00:03:56,640 --> 00:04:00,120 finals are typically the players who crushed and were the reason 72 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:02,200 you made it to the finals in the 1st place. 73 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:05,920 So stop fading last round picks or early round player combos 74 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:09,480 purely to leverage ownership and instead focus on getting 75 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:12,360 exposure to the players and combos at their frequency you 76 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:14,520 think is optimal for your portfolio. 77 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:17,640 Come on Dubner, if we can't talk about ownership, how else are we 78 00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:22,640 going to fill time on 4 hour best ball streams at #24 We got 79 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:26,520 best ball Sharp and ETR contributor Dave caping for a 80 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:28,800 very specific group of wide receivers. 81 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:31,120 What's up guys? Dave from Establishment run here 82 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:34,120 and my 20. 25 true CM take. Are the the wide? 83 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:35,800 Receivers, we're taking around the 4-5 turn. 84 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:38,640 Right now are the keys to one of your best ball tournaments and 85 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:40,280 home leagues. I'm talking the likes of. 86 00:04:40,280 --> 00:04:43,560 George Pickens, Jameson Williams, Devante Smith say. 87 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:44,720 Flowers, Calvin. Really. 88 00:04:44,720 --> 00:04:45,760 Jalen Waddle? Travis. 89 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:47,520 Hunter, all the guys I. Just mentioned. 90 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:49,600 I want to be overexposed to and I'm willing to. 91 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,920 Reach up to a round on. And I'll take these guys over 92 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:54,120 the names of DJ. Moore. 93 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:57,320 DK Metcalf, Cortland Sutton, I'll even take some of these 94 00:04:57,320 --> 00:04:59,520 guys over James Cook. So go. 95 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:02,080 Get these guys this season, they are the key to winning your 96 00:05:02,280 --> 00:05:04,720 basketball tournaments. Did someone say Jalen Waddle? 97 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:08,880 Because ET Rs Mike Leone would also like to push all in on the 98 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:12,000 Dolphins wide receiver. Shouldn't be difficult to top my 99 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:16,040 blistering hot take last year that Kyle Pitts would be one of 100 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:17,880 the top overall tight ends in fantasy. 101 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:21,120 So we're starting with the low bar and my truth serum take. 102 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:23,960 It is something I'm ashamed to admit because I I have to 103 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:28,360 capitulate to Evan Silva and his hyper aggressive Jalen Waddle 104 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:32,440 ranking in the top fourty. While I think that ranking is a 105 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:36,160 little little crazy, especially relative to ADPI, don't think 106 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:39,320 Silva's too far off Jalen Waddle is going to be one of the most 107 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:42,240 important fantasy wide receivers this season. 108 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:48,520 Last year, you know, it was a bit of a cluster year for Miami 109 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:51,680 with the OL issues, the two injury, the quarterback play and 110 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:53,960 whatnot, but he's entering his fifth season. 111 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:57,360 He's still only 26 years old. If you look at his first three 112 00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:00,680 seasons in the NFL. Year one as a rookie comes out 113 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:05,480 140 targets over 100 catches. Year 2 we see the elite 114 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:09,960 efficiency going for over 1300 yards over 18 yards per catch in 115 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:12,720 year 3. In 2023 was actually 6 in the 116 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:18,120 entire NFL in our yards per out run data at 2.81 yards. 117 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:21,720 Now you know, obviously coming off the down here in 2024 is 118 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:24,080 giving you an incredible discount at a player who ceiling 119 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:28,720 we have not yet fully seen. In my opinion we know Miami have 120 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,920 an insanely high target per out run to both Tyree Kill and Jill 121 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:33,960 and Waddle. Especially with John Smith being 122 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:36,640 traded. The vibes on Tyree kill aren't 123 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:39,040 great right now. Relationship issues with the 124 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:42,480 team getting a little bit older, unsure on help. 125 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:46,360 So Jaylen Waddle is really, you know, one of the targets you 126 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:48,640 should be making and drafting aggressively even into the 127 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:52,200 fourth round of your fantasy drafts and in all best ball 128 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:55,280 formats. I asked for 30 to 45 second 129 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:58,000 clips and this guy sends me Casablanca. 130 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:00,960 Classic behavior from a spreadsheet virgin. 131 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:03,480 By the way, make sure you guys are subscribed to the Deposit 132 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:06,120 Kingdom channel so you don't miss any videos. 133 00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:10,480 Next up we got the Slap King himself living up to his name 134 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:14,400 with a very sloppy take about ignoring production profiles. 135 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:17,480 My truth serum take is that the nerds have lost their way in 136 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:20,120 fantasy football just to a little bit of a degree, and I'm 137 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:22,280 going to use three players to highlight this example. 138 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:25,840 Matthew Golden, Jameson Williams, and Xavier Worthy. 139 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:28,840 All three of these guys have questionable target turning 140 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:31,840 profiles to which a nerd would say they're just going to have 141 00:07:31,840 --> 00:07:34,160 to run too hot. It's not sustainable for them to 142 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:36,800 generate enough points. Whereas if you just zoom out on 143 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:39,320 the chart, it's the same sort of logic as why we, you know, 144 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:42,360 fading guys like Barkley, fading guys like Derek Henry. 145 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:45,440 These guys are outliers, but for a very clear and provable 146 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:48,640 reason. When you run a four 240 you are 147 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:51,440 going to score touchdowns and long touchdowns at an above 148 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:54,680 average rate compared to other players at your position who 149 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:57,400 generate a similar amount of target volume. 150 00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:00,360 Don't be a nerd. Draft speed. 151 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:03,680 I'm not sure if Karain's ears were burning when Davis called 152 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:07,240 him a nerd for overthinking it about Jamo, but Pat has a 153 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,760 rebuttal. Or does he So this idea that? 154 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:12,760 He's just going to be. You know this incredible. 155 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:15,120 Spike week player We don't. Actually have a lot of. 156 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:17,480 Evidence for that and he's going at the 4-5. 157 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:20,320 Turn based on anything he's done in the past. 158 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:24,360 He's like clearly overpriced. But none of that matters. 159 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:25,800 Because Jameson Williams is going to hit. 160 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:27,600 This year and I think. He's going to hit. 161 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:32,480 Because the lions are. Redesigning their offense, or at 162 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:36,880 least tweaking their offense to have it be more about Jameson 163 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:38,640 Williams and this is. A bit of a. 164 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:40,640 Problem for me because I've faded. 165 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:44,039 Jameson Williams. Most of this offseason because. 166 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:47,280 He's clearly overpriced, but again, that doesn't matter 167 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:50,640 because he's going to hit. And that, my friends, is what 168 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:53,000 capitulation via drum beat looks like. 169 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:56,360 I should also point out last year Pat's capitulation truth 170 00:08:56,360 --> 00:08:59,680 serum take was that Jaden Daniels should actually be a six 171 00:08:59,680 --> 00:09:02,200 round pick, even though at the time he thought he was going to 172 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:04,200 get hurt. Do with that what you will. 173 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaking of Jamo, let's talk about his old offensive 174 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:11,560 coordinator's new running back. Roto World's Denny Carter has 175 00:09:11,560 --> 00:09:13,320 some thoughts after taking a swig. 176 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:17,040 My truth serum take for this year is that DeAndre Swift has 177 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:20,040 one of the worst running back AD PS I've ever seen in my life 178 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:25,080 going off the board in the RB 2425 range. 179 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:30,080 I wouldn't take him at RB-45. The Bears are desperate to not 180 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:33,400 play this guy and yet we think he's going to see volume. 181 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:35,080 He's not. It's over. 182 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:38,160 That's my truth serum take then. Are we taking Roshan Johnson, 183 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:40,400 Kyle Manon? Guy Denny, You can't just drop a 184 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:42,200 truth bomb like that and leave us hanging. 185 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:45,680 Come on man. But the show must go on. 186 00:09:45,680 --> 00:09:49,880 Next we got Draco from leg up and stat chasing urging us to 187 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:53,520 slurp up the Dipperino on a disgusting franchise. 188 00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:57,480 My true serum take is that the Browns are going to be a fun, 189 00:09:57,480 --> 00:10:01,440 bad team in 2025. I think that cheap Browns 190 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:04,040 players will be one of the keys to the season. 191 00:10:04,680 --> 00:10:09,160 I think that Kevin Savansky is a quarterback whisperer and people 192 00:10:09,160 --> 00:10:13,720 have forgotten that he made Joe Flacco look very good in 23. 193 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:17,280 He made percent look like a starter level in 2022. 194 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:19,680 I think that he's going to be able to do that. 195 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:22,400 With one of the four quarterbacks available in 196 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:25,600 Cleveland this year, it should be no surprise that Draco stat 197 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:28,960 chasing Co host sacrilegious from leg up, also likes an 198 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:31,880 undervalued Cleveland Brown. And let the record show that 199 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:34,880 this truth serum take was submitted before it was revealed 200 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:37,520 that Quinn Shawn Judkins wouldn't face charges. 201 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:40,400 I had to take an extra large goal for truth serum for this 202 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:44,840 one, but my 2025 truth serum take is that I don't think Quinn 203 00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:48,280 Shawn Judkins is a bad pick given how far he falls in 204 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:50,400 drafts. I just checked some teams. 205 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:55,400 I think getting him in the 170's, I got a 170, a 175 and I 206 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:58,680 think at that cost the risk is probably worth it. 207 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:02,080 I feel like the markets. Over indexing to the. 208 00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:04,880 Outcome where he gets suspended and goes on the commissioner's 209 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:06,880 exempt list and misses six games. 210 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:10,800 But there are lots of examples in the NFL where players got 211 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:16,240 accused of very similar things and never saw a suspension or 212 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:18,120 even touch the commissioner's exempt list. 213 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:24,040 Players like Jerry Judy or Zay Flowers or Tyree Kill or Xavier 214 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:28,920 Worthy just to name a few. And the list is much longer than 215 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:30,840 that. So I think there is some 216 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:34,000 probability that he just doesn't get suspended this year. 217 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:38,120 And if that's the case, he is a smash in the one 70s. 218 00:11:38,560 --> 00:11:41,600 OK, we've done a lot of player takes and we got a few more 219 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:44,520 spicy ones to come. But before that, my guy Nez from 220 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:47,840 the Badge Bros. Apparently it's my week 17 as 221 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:52,040 all that Matters video. My true serum take of 2025 is 222 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:56,040 that the regular season matters. The regular season matters so 223 00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:58,760 much, man. It's the one round in these best 224 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:03,320 ball formats that you have the most control over 14 weeks of 225 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:07,000 football where you can build a team that makes sense, that can 226 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:09,280 score points and get you to the playoffs. 227 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:11,160 After that, it's straight variance. 228 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:13,800 I'm not saying that you shouldn't stack. 229 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:16,440 Like, yes, obviously you should be stacking. 230 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:19,160 Yes, you should be here and there thinking about players 231 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:21,320 that can absolutely take off late in the. 232 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:23,680 Season but you still. Got to get there first, man. 233 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:25,320 You still got to get there first. 234 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:29,440 You have very little control over what happens in weeks 1516 235 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:31,720 and 17 if you happen to even get there. 236 00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:35,360 Very little control. So focus on the regular season, 237 00:12:35,680 --> 00:12:38,800 build a good team, stack a little bit and run. 238 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:41,240 Good. Considering how boomer that take 239 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:44,920 is from Nez, it's no surprise that the oldest man to ever 240 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:48,200 stream all 150 of their best Ball Mania drafts feels 241 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:51,120 similarly. I don't think drafting for 242 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:53,600 advancement, like just just trying to build a team that will 243 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:56,840 advance is actually that bad. I think it's really hard to 244 00:12:56,840 --> 00:13:00,200 advance teams in best ball 2 out of 12 in most structures. 245 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:02,800 Just just super hard to get there to begin with. 246 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:06,320 And then NFL football is really random. 247 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:08,800 Like it's really hard to predict what's going to happen in the 248 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:10,000 playoffway. So I still think you should try 249 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:12,760 to correlate, you know, with with your quarterbacks, stuff 250 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:16,120 like that, but ultimately just getting there and hopefully that 251 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:19,160 luck goes your way. I think it's a totally, totally 252 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:20,680 fine approach. It's really hard to predict 253 00:13:20,680 --> 00:13:22,440 spike weeks. Everybody thinks like this 254 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:24,120 player has the spike week profile. 255 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:26,480 This other player doesn't. We can't predict spike weeks. 256 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:27,960 I mean, we we can't do an extent, but it's really 257 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:29,520 difficult to predict spike weeks. 258 00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:32,880 Nobody expected Zach Ruth last year to have a spike week in the 259 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:34,480 playoffs. He was clearly an advancement 260 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:36,240 piece and he was great in the playoff weeks. 261 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:38,320 It happens every year. So that's my take. 262 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:41,200 By the way, if you made it this far and still haven't signed up 263 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:43,760 to play with us on Underdog Fantasy, take advantage of a 264 00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:46,120 couple new promos. There's still the deposit match 265 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:49,800 up to $1000 with promo code Pete, but there's also a new 266 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:54,280 offer where new customers who put $5 in play get $50.00 in 267 00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:57,320 bonus funds as well. Moving on, we have the first 268 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:01,400 submission that blew my mind. This comes from DFS in Boss and 269 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:03,480 leg up contributor. Shady advice. 270 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,960 I'm shady advice and I have been deep in the labs for The Sims. 271 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:10,120 I've looked at projections and correlations, I've used discrete 272 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:12,760 and continuous variables to run regressions and classifications, 273 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:15,200 I've used linear non linear models, and I've even thrown 274 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:17,360 reinforcement learning and neural networks at the problem. 275 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:22,800 I have looked for every possible hidden confounding factor, but 276 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:25,440 after taking this troop theorem I just can't hold this 277 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:31,200 conclusion back any longer. It turns out fantasy sports 278 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:34,400 might be more fun if you watch the games. 279 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:37,560 I know, I know, it's painful for some of you to hear me say this, 280 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:41,200 and I may have even lost your trust, but I can't find any 281 00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:43,800 errors in my analysis or my models. 282 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:48,320 So sit back, watch some games, and enjoy the season. 283 00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:51,800 Wow, I thought the whole point of being a nerd was that you 284 00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:55,560 didn't need to watch the games. Truly stunning stuff for Mr. 285 00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:58,040 Shady there. Let's head to someone who might 286 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:01,880 not watch all the games, but does watch literally every 287 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:05,840 single word an NFL coach says. Truth serum time. 288 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:09,560 Tyler Warren is an elite tight end option, but we are not 289 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:13,000 drafting him like it. Even though Shane Steiken and 290 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:16,920 Chris Ballard have been thirsting for a wide tight end 291 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:20,760 more publicly and harder than Jim Ursay thirsted for Raquel 292 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:23,960 Welch, I think Tyler Warren should be going ahead of Sam 293 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:27,440 Laporta and TJ Hawkinson. Definitely presently ahead of 294 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,680 Travis Kelsey and Mark Andrews, even though I have all those 295 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:34,720 guys ranked ahead of him. Warren has unbelievable hands 296 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:38,080 and the Colts have made it clear that he will be a focal point of 297 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:41,280 this offense. But we're all scared of how bad 298 00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:45,240 this offense is going to be, how bad the quarterbacks are, All 299 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:48,880 the same arguments we heard about Brock Bowers last season. 300 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,440 How did that turn out? Let the record show that that 301 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:55,520 was submitted even before Daniel Jones was announced as the 302 00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:57,520 starter. So kudos there to coach speak 303 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:00,240 index. However, that isn't even the 304 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:02,640 hottest rookie tight end take we have. 305 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,200 Let's head out to my former chess coach who I think 306 00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:08,400 previously won a tournament but I couldn't confirm chess. 307 00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:12,960 Liam. My truth serum take for 2025 is 308 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:17,120 that Colton Loveland is going to be the tight end for after Brock 309 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:19,400 Bowers, Trey McBride and George Kindle. 310 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:25,960 He goes roughly around tight end 9 and drafts after Sam Laporta, 311 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:29,600 Tyler Warren, Mark Andrews, TJ Hawkinson, Travis Kelsey. 312 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:33,680 Sometimes up in Ingram is the guy who went top ten in the real 313 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:38,800 NFL draft. We got the connection with the 314 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:43,000 man who made Sam Laporta a big thing his rookie year. 315 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:46,520 We've seen breakouts from Brock Bauer's his rookie year. 316 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:50,320 Coming fresh off that, we have Dalton Kincaid, who had a decent 317 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:53,640 rookie year. We had the Caleb Williams year 2 318 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:58,440 in the Ben Johnson offense. Improved online just competing 319 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:02,200 with Cole Comet and Co DJ Moore, Pelton on the sidelines. 320 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:07,480 So Colston Lublin a smash in drafts Titan 4 should be going 321 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:09,760 four or five rounds more expensive. 322 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:14,640 All I will say is this, whether you agree or not, fade Liam at 323 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:16,960 your own risk. His deal with the devil is 324 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:18,960 unlike anything I've ever seen in this world. 325 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:22,720 But while Coach Beak and Liam are urging you to aggressively 326 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:26,000 draft rookies splash plays, Chris Spagg says everyone needs 327 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:28,319 to chill out on the diaper dandies. 328 00:17:28,319 --> 00:17:31,600 If I were to give you guys a 2025 true serum take and one 329 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:34,160 that cuts the bone to be in particular as a guy who last 330 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:37,120 year stumped the entire year for rookies, guys like Daniels, 331 00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:40,000 Bucky Irving, Marshawn Lloyd, they can't all be winners. 332 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,760 The point being loved rookies last year and we saw a lot of 333 00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:45,480 other guys hitting too. Brock Bowers, Brian Thomas, Ladd 334 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:48,200 Mcconkey, they all matter to winning lineups across best ball 335 00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:49,920 no matter what platform you're playing on. 336 00:17:50,120 --> 00:17:52,960 That said, this year, I think the rookie enthusiasm from last 337 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:54,920 year and having those historically great guys is 338 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:56,480 making you guys take rookies too much. 339 00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:59,840 And I love guys like Ashton Genti, oh, Marion Hampton really 340 00:17:59,840 --> 00:18:03,320 taking Genti over Derrick Henry, Devon age Chan guys were really 341 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:05,160 projectable. We know of major spike week 342 00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:07,320 upside that when you turn tournaments, is that the right 343 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:09,080 move? Going down the list even further 344 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:11,160 is where I think they're even bigger errors where the 345 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:14,840 enthusiasm for Basil Tootens, hos Brooks, DJ Giddens, all 346 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:17,040 these guys were running backs that might not matter at all, 347 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:19,560 might not get in the field. At least Giddens is an RB2, but 348 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:22,040 should you be taking him over guys like Braylon Allen should 349 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,360 be taking him over Austin Nekler, Rashad White as part of 350 00:18:24,360 --> 00:18:26,200 your RB room? I don't think so. 351 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:28,680 And I really hate being the old guy yelling at clouds here, 352 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:31,680 having the boomer take the got to have projectable guys. 353 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:33,600 But in reality, I think people are going to be led to the 354 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:36,120 slaughter a lot this year by taking too many rookies given 355 00:18:36,120 --> 00:18:39,360 what they saw last year. And that's my 2025 true serum 356 00:18:39,360 --> 00:18:41,120 take. You're taking too many rookies. 357 00:18:41,120 --> 00:18:43,560 They're going to kill us all. And if I'm wrong, you yell at me 358 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:45,360 on Twitter like people seem to love to do. 359 00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:48,800 One of the most fun things about putting this video together is 360 00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,360 seeing the takes where some people have the complete 361 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:54,400 opposite take as someone else. That's what we have here from 362 00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:58,040 Spike Week's Eric Beim 4 when it comes to chasing rookie risers. 363 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:02,160 If you gave me a dose of troops in the moment, I would tell you 364 00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:07,400 that these super steamy high risers, particularly rookies and 365 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:10,640 young players during training camp and the preseason, are the 366 00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:14,040 exact players we should be buying at that time of the year. 367 00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:18,000 It feels really uncomfortable to draft guys who have risen from 368 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:22,720 undrafted or late round picks all the way up the boards 369 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:24,840 because they're performing well in camp. 370 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:27,240 They're getting buzz from the players and coaches. 371 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:28,520 But those are. Exactly. 372 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:32,360 The guys I think that we should be taking, we wait all summer to 373 00:19:32,360 --> 00:19:35,520 get the information from training camp from the coaches, 374 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:39,040 who's performing well, who's climbing the depth chart, which 375 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:43,000 rookies are popping. And then once we get it, we fear 376 00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:46,840 chasing those guys because in May you could get them at pick 377 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,160 200. Those are exactly the types of 378 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:51,720 players that I think we should be chasing because those are the 379 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:54,680 players that end up being the biggest league winners, the 380 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:58,280 stars of camp, the breakout rookies and young players that 381 00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:00,840 we didn't see coming. The Kyron Williams, the Bucky 382 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:03,200 Irving's, the Brian Thomas's, whoever. 383 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:06,400 All these guys that got tons and tons of hype during the summer. 384 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,400 We should buy those guys even though we have to pay a little 385 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:11,320 bit of a premium after the hype comes in. 386 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:13,800 I'm with Eric. I'm aggressively drafting the 387 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:16,200 rookies who have seen their outlook improved, specifically 388 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:18,720 the ones I wasn't drafting at the beginning of the summer. 389 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:22,920 Even if it means I'm orph orph orphing in drafts like the seal 390 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:26,000 of the Best Ball Bros video. Give me all the Tory Hortons and 391 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,640 Isaac Teslas and Ollie Gordon's. It's now or never. 392 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:32,400 Next up we have one of my video editors and Uber bestball 393 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:35,600 contrarian with a true serum take about running backs. 394 00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:38,320 Take it away, Buck. My truth serum take is what if 395 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:40,480 the second and third round should be mostly running backs? 396 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:43,000 It's the year 2025 and we've got great running backs on high 397 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:45,560 scoring offenses like I haven't seen in 15 to 20 years. 398 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:47,920 The current NFL meta on both sides of the ball is something 399 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:50,320 that we have seen before and top end running back points are not 400 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:52,680 as replaceable by contingent RB bets as they have been in the 401 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:54,520 past decade. We often talk about the 402 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:56,440 importance of back rated production being a reason to 403 00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:58,240 target rookies in uncertain situations. 404 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:00,680 The most not often mentioned is that top end running backs on 405 00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:03,320 high scoring teams have very high weekly ceilings all year 406 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,200 and that includes week 17. If a good team is winning, 407 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:08,600 they're running the ball well. The other side of this is that 408 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:10,920 once you get past the elite wide receivers, the position is a lot 409 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:12,320 flatter than drafters want to admit. 410 00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:14,480 Do your own research. Of course there are wide 411 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:16,480 receivers that deserve to be in the second and third round, but 412 00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:18,760 I would not be surprised if we look back on this wondering if 413 00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:21,320 we were pulling up wide receiver just because early running backs 414 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:24,200 make us uncomfortable. Buck isn't alone with his high 415 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:26,880 teeth thoughts. Tom from Fantasy Sanctuary feels 416 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,320 similarly and comes with some data to back it up. 417 00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:32,000 I can't believe nobody is making more of a big deal about hero 418 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,240 wide receiver. Like seriously, we spent all our 419 00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:37,360 time talking about hero running back, 0 running back, but nobody 420 00:21:37,360 --> 00:21:39,560 wants to talk about somebody that's worked for years and is 421 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:41,240 probably going to work again this year. 422 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,240 In 2021, if you took a wide receiver in round one and then 423 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,840 took your second in round four or later, you get advance rates 424 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,240 as high as 21% with six wide receiver bills. 425 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:57,080 Twenty 2220% 2020 317%, then 2024 green across the board. 7 426 00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:59,760 wide receiver. Bills had 30. 2% advance rates. 427 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,760 Compare that to 0RB builds like 7%. 428 00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:06,240 But no, everyone just wants to talk about how this is a great 429 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:09,160 year for zero RB. Once again, nobody wants to talk 430 00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:12,280 about how here a wide receiver can be really freaking good and 431 00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,440 could hit. Once again, take your hero wide 432 00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:16,680 receiver round one. Take one or two running backs, 433 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:19,160 maybe an elite tight end or quarterback in rounds 2 or 3. 434 00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:21,600 Then get back to the wide receiver position in a range. 435 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,240 For everyone who's been banging on about being good. 436 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:26,280 Seriously, just go and look at the data. 437 00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:28,880 Then perhaps come and subscribe to the Fantasy Sanctuary. 438 00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:32,480 Continuing this trend of high T true Serum takes, we have easy 439 00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:35,800 from the Deposit Kingdom sharing his truth from the incline 440 00:22:35,800 --> 00:23:02,200 bench. I think people are drafting a 441 00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:07,000 little scared, a little too high, tee anchor, RB is RB still 442 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,600 good. Touchbacks are going out to the 443 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,720 35. Passing is going to be up, 444 00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,560 scoring is going to be up. A lot of really good chief 445 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:19,840 contingent rookie running backs. Don't give up on it. 446 00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:23,720 Now wow, I did not see that coming at the end. 447 00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:27,920 Easy becoming a zero RB bro. I will say I didn't feel this 448 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:31,400 way all summer, but I'm absolutely loving how the 0RB 449 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,040 builds with elite quarterback and elite tight end look right 450 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:35,480 now. Make sure you check out the 451 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:39,160 video I did with Sean last week where we drafted a truly extreme 452 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,120 0RB team. Next up we go to the other badge 453 00:23:42,120 --> 00:23:45,200 bro John Warner, who has some harsh words for people who go 454 00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:48,080 ham on specific players in their portfolio. 455 00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:52,280 There is no reason to have extreme ownership thresholds 456 00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:55,280 unless you're just trying to big Dick screenshots on the 457 00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,280 Internet. That is the only reason I 458 00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,000 actually think it is bad practice. 459 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:02,840 I used to think it was a Rick's risk tolerance exercise, and I 460 00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:05,400 believe that is true when it comes to the daily slates. 461 00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:08,280 But over the course of the entirety of the season you are 462 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:12,160 funneling yourself down 1 isolated path too thinly. 463 00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:16,440 In a 14 week followed by one week, one week one week style 464 00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:17,520 contest. They play. 465 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:20,400 Significantly dense, exploitative ownerships play 466 00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:23,800 significantly better in the Sprint style contest, the 467 00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:27,360 Marathon Style contest, and the Eliminator than BBM. 468 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,960 But stealing signals, Ben Gretch says not so fast. 469 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:34,640 John Warner and Flat Exposure Bros grow some balls and take a 470 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:39,040 stand. The obsession with exposures has 471 00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:41,680 made people significantly worse at best ball. 472 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,200 I think it's important that you do what's best for the 473 00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:49,320 individual build and too often people use balancing exposures 474 00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:51,320 as a scapegoat to build worst teams. 475 00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,680 I also think people play scared they're unwilling to full fade 476 00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,560 players that could make them look stupid publicly because of 477 00:24:57,560 --> 00:24:59,400 all the look up tools that are out there. 478 00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:01,880 I think in the end, if you're lucky enough to get a team or a 479 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:06,160 handful of teams through, your exposures are consolidating 480 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:07,920 anyway. So the idea you need to balance 481 00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:11,640 this, you know, what if he's the guy you need in round 18, it's 482 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,160 really just saying you're trying to get really lucky that the one 483 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,680 team you get through has that one guy on it that you got a 484 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:20,920 little exposure to, as opposed to maybe taking some real stands 485 00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:24,560 on the guys that you think have the best shot to really impact 486 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:26,360 and have them on all your rosters. 487 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,600 Fantasy Life's Kendall Balenzuela agrees with Ben. 488 00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:34,080 She says go and get your guys. ADP is just a social construct 489 00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:38,880 meant to keep you Pete in a box and you will never win a fantasy 490 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,480 football championship if you follow just ADP. 491 00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:43,640 And getting more into that is that. 492 00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:45,520 I just think that it really does. 493 00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:48,640 ADP can find some players for fantasy football. 494 00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,560 I think the best fantasy football players and the ones 495 00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:55,040 that win the most are the ones that go get their guys earlier 496 00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,240 or ahead of ADP. They say I'm not not going to 497 00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:59,680 follow this. ADP is just a guide in my 498 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:01,880 opinion. So the ones that win the most 499 00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,880 championships are the ones that are willing to get their guys 500 00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:06,760 either earlier. We're not talking crazy, We're 501 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:10,200 not saying get your round 14 guy in the fifth round, but they 502 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:12,440 make sure to throw ADP out the window when it comes to guys 503 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:14,640 that they actually believe in and that's what helps them win 504 00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:17,400 the most championships. Next up we have the 505 00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:20,480 aforementioned Sean Siegel. And let me just say, this heel 506 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,560 turn from Sean made my head spin. 507 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:26,280 I thought this man loved elite tight ends, but I was wrong. 508 00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:30,640 I have to consider myself one of the founding members of Team 509 00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,120 Tight End. Scores a lot of points, but 510 00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:37,480 under the bright lights with the true serum I'd probably say that 511 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,080 in touchdown heavy formats 2020. 5. 512 00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:44,240 That you can get by with the really scrubby guys at the end. 513 00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:46,760 Late and a heavy. Take a lot of those guys. 514 00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:53,320 That's going to be the path to winning the big tournaments and 515 00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,320 even though I have Brock Bowers ranked number one in some 516 00:26:56,320 --> 00:27:01,400 formats, the way that you beat. 2025 ADP. 517 00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:05,960 To get those running backs and still draft mostly zebra RB late 518 00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:09,320 and heavy tight end the league winning play this season. 519 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:13,560 Sean is not alone, however. The BBM One champ strongly 520 00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:15,560 agrees. Justin Herzig here from 521 00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,360 Established The Run and the FF and 60 Fantasy Football 522 00:27:18,360 --> 00:27:20,800 newsletter Time for my truth serum. 523 00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:23,760 And I'll admit it, I had to drink quite a lot of that sarin 524 00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:25,280 to admit this one. Because if you use this 525 00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:28,480 strategy, you'll definitely get clowned in underground Discord 526 00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:30,720 channels and Twitter and just laughed out of the room. 527 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:33,840 But deep down, I really believe that the optimal tight end 528 00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:36,880 strategy for this year for basketball mania might just be 529 00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:39,600 wait until the final three rounds to draft your tight ends. 530 00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:41,440 And here's why. First, the tight ends in this 531 00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:43,400 range are the best value compared to other positions. 532 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,160 They have the highest relative projections and also the highest 533 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:48,720 likelihood of breaking out of the position given the variance 534 00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:53,480 of tight ends and just overall pretty soft thin position 2. 535 00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,400 They're super easy to stack late with your quarterbacks because 536 00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:58,440 there are so many. Rarely are people trying to 537 00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:00,760 target a specific one they don't already have the QB of. 538 00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,320 Because you have so many options, people just end up 539 00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:07,080 stacking with their already drafted QBs and 3rd it's the 540 00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:09,600 best way to actually get that low drafted player that can 541 00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:12,240 actually make an impact on your team come fantasy playoffs. 542 00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:16,880 I mean Tyler Higbee 7% Herald fan and 16% Theo Johnson 38, 543 00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,680 Juwan Johnson 52, Elijah Arroyo 53. 544 00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:23,720 These are all guys that can be that unique late playoff hammer. 545 00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,280 And if you're concerned about missing out on the low end wide 546 00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:29,160 receivers or running backs in that range, just pull them up to 547 00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,000 the 15th round. You're not actually giving up 548 00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:34,320 that much draft capital. So yeah, my true serum is this. 549 00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:37,800 Skip the early the mid round tight ends, let the rest of the 550 00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:40,200 room watch snicker as you continue to pass on that 551 00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:43,000 position, and then hammer at the end of the draft with three 552 00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,160 straight. And if you want to get crazy, 553 00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:48,760 might as well make it four straight at worst case scenario. 554 00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,280 Your team sucks at a position that is the least impactful to 555 00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:54,800 scoring, but you're smashing at the other positions and best 556 00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:58,360 case you win $2,000,000 and you did it without devoting any 557 00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:01,280 capital to that position. Sounds like a plan to me. 558 00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:03,800 Good luck. If two of the sharpest players 559 00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:06,840 in fantasy think punt tight end is the way, I might need to 560 00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:08,600 rethink my Brock Bowers exposure. 561 00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:14,040 OK, we're down to the final two. My guy Jacob Sanderson from ADP 562 00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,160 Chasing has a true serum take that. 563 00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:19,160 I'm so glad he shared because I was going to do it. 564 00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:22,040 If someone else didn't have the courage to say it, I just 565 00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:23,720 slurped the truth. Areno. 566 00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:27,440 The true. Serum and I'm giving you my 2025 567 00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,280 true serum take. There is a team currently. 568 00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:33,200 With four pass catchers, 1 running back, and their 569 00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:36,400 quarterback all going in the top 10 rounds of underdog drafts 570 00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:38,320 right now. And I think they're going to 571 00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,680 suck. That's the Chicago Bears. 572 00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:44,600 We have given blanket excuses to the players who were on the 573 00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:48,640 20/20/14 because of coaching the Kayla Williams. 574 00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,040 Was terrible. For most of last year, was one 575 00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:53,760 of the worst quarterbacks in the NFLDJ. 576 00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:57,240 Moore gave no effort, couldn't separate past five yards. 577 00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,960 If you watched him on All 22 Roma, Dunsay had the kind of 578 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,640 rookie season that should make us think he's more likely to be 579 00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:07,640 Rashad Bateman or Corey Davis than DeAndre Hawkins. 580 00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:10,120 And I'm excited about Luther Burden. 581 00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:11,880 I'm excited about Colston Loveland. 582 00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:17,440 But I'm not 100% sure when I look at Ben Johnson, if these 583 00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,080 guys are going to be put in position to succeed. 584 00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:24,040 I see a coach who is a brilliant offensive mind but who doesn't 585 00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:26,800 sleep, shows up to the facility at 2:00 AM, yells at people all 586 00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:28,680 the time, wants to lock along the day. 587 00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:32,720 Zacchaeus into a role wants to force call Kyle Manungai into 588 00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:36,320 our lives and I'm a little scared that he's just Josh 589 00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:40,040 McDaniels 2.0 and that he's going to be too frantic forcing 590 00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:45,800 people to play his system I think in my heart, despite my 591 00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:47,480 actual. Draft record that the. 592 00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:50,080 Bears are going to go 5 and 12 this season. 593 00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:54,720 I think that none of the wide receivers finished top 24 and I 594 00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:58,040 think that neither Caleb or Loveland finished top 12. 595 00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:00,440 In this scenario. I hope that I'm wrong for the 596 00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:03,120 sake of some of my bags, but that's my true serum take. 597 00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:05,880 Everything about the Bears scares me. 598 00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:07,760 Caleb and Rome weren't good last year. 599 00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:11,000 Ben Johnson is out on his own. Hell, my most drafted wide 600 00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:14,280 receiver and all of best ball is the Chicago rookie who was hurt 601 00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:17,120 for most of the summer and is still playing behind Olamide 602 00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:19,680 Zacchaeus. I'm so scared, you guys. 603 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:23,200 But it's actually not even the take I'm scared about the most. 604 00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:27,240 Look, I didn't want to put my own personal submission first 605 00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:28,840 last year. I was like 18th. 606 00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:32,240 And I also don't want to put all of my lovely contributors on 607 00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:33,840 blast. They're all very smart, 608 00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:36,680 thoughtful people, and I sincerely appreciate their time 609 00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:40,840 making content for this video. But I just didn't feel the fear 610 00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:43,160 and the terror in a lot of these takes. 611 00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:46,400 I don't know about you guys, but I'm scared to say mine. 612 00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:49,840 I would not otherwise publicly say what I'm about to say. 613 00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,840 You will never catch me writing this in the Fantasy Life 614 00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:55,680 newsletter. I might have mumbled it once on 615 00:31:55,680 --> 00:32:00,120 basketball breakfast, but right now, after a big strong pull of 616 00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,880 this truth juice, I'm ready to get vulnerable. 617 00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:14,760 Guys, Ashton Gene T is going to be a colossal bust. 618 00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:16,480 It's Trent Richardson, 2 point O. 619 00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:18,680 The dude went to a Mickey Mouse college. 620 00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:20,840 They played on blue turf for fuck's sake. 621 00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:25,760 Pete Carroll is going to love giving Raheem Mostert 12 touches 622 00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:27,520 a game. close your eyes right now. 623 00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:30,560 Gene T is going to RIP off a 40 yard run fall down at the goal 624 00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:34,080 line and Pete Carroll is going to tuck his rock hard boner into 625 00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:37,400 his pants before sending Mostert out onto the field to punch it 626 00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:39,320 in. Omarion Hampton, Trevion 627 00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:41,560 Henderson and like two other rookie running backs will 628 00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:45,000 outscore Gene T this year. I thought we learned our lesson 629 00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:47,920 with round one rookies last year with Marvin Harrison, but I 630 00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:50,680 guess not Go with God. Gene T slaps. 631 00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:51,800 You're gonna need it.