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It's week 1 and it is so good to
be back as zero RB Bros freak 

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the fuck out that their running 
back 2 scored 3.5 fantasy 

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points. 
This is stat chasing Pat fryer 

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Helmo. 
This is what This is what I'm 

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Pat Anita Handjob. 
Fix your sight, Jamar. 

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Alpha play Chase. 
Are you kidding me today, Tony? 

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You. 
Can't handle the heat. 

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It looks like we're finally at 
this point here, right? 

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All right. 
Week 1. 

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It feels so good to be back. 
Draco, I am super excited to go 

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through all of these charts with
you. 

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Yeah, Yeah. 
Really excited and I think we 

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made some improvements as well. 
Big overhead to the quarterback 

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chart that we talked about 
making last year, we made for 

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this year. 
Yeah, we we were in the lab, 

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hard at work on the quarterback 
chart, took us the entire 

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offseason. 
We are slaving away at it. 

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We definitely didn't leave it to
the absolute very last man, no. 

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No, no, no, no. 
I mean, we were, we were 

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messaging I, I think it was two 
days after the Super Bowl, you 

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messaged me and you're like, 
dude, we got to get to work on 

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this quarterback chart. 
It's going to take us months. 

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I, you know, I think actually, I
think I did actually message you

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at that time frame and then we 
didn't actually do. 

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It we did. 
We did very much talk about 

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improvements to the back then, 
but we did absolutely nothing 

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until like the final hour. 
But we got it all done. 

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So getting into it here, I'm 
going to that doesn't work. 

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The biggest improvement we made 
was we made them all much 

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smaller and harder to. 
Goddamn it no. 

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Well, while, while Draco gets 
the the chart up there, I'll, 

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I'll describe a little bit of 
the changes, but I'm, I'm going 

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to leave the heavy lifting on 
describing the charts to Draco. 

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But the chart, one of the things
that we didn't like about it 

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last year was it showed some 
stats that we thought were 

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important for quarterback, but 
it was less intuitive for 

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fantasy friendliness. 
So I'll go ahead and let Draco 

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explain what we're looking at 
here. 

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Right. 
So our chart like Slack alluded 

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to there, our chart last year, 
it focused a lot on efficiency 

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and efficiency very, very 
important. 

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We like efficiency because 
particularly when passing the 

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ball touchdowns, yardage 
efficiency is is what drives a 

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lot of pocket passers points and
then and then you then we have 

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rushing. 
But what's also important is 

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volume and we do want that. 
We don't want like small or we 

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don't necessarily want small 
volume, high efficiency when it 

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doesn't get us that many points.
But there is an exception to 

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that rule of small volume, high 
efficiency. 

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And that brings me to Anthony 
Richardson, who completed 9 

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passes on the week, but he did 
it for 212 yards. 

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So he's a really good example 
of, I mean, these guys that are 

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going to be in this upper left 
quadrant here, the really good 

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adjusted yards per attempt, but 
low expected fantasy points from

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passing. 
The way that I read them is they

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just probably come with a good 
amount of volatility like, and 

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obviously we've only got one 
week of data in here right now. 

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So you know, this this chart is 
going to normalize as we get 

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more weeks in here and the guys,
you know, get to more, more 

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along the lines of where their 
true place on the chart is going

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to be. 
But if a guy lives in this upper

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left quadrant, I would just say 
they're, they're likely a more 

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volatile profile. 
Do you think that's a fair 

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assessment to make Rico? 
Yeah. 

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So I, I think if, if like 
specifically Josh Allen, Anthony

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Richardson, so those guys added 
somewhere between 18 and 20 and 

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points from from passing. 
And, and so when you add that on

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top of their rushing score, then
yeah, that that that's going to 

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be a great week that, that, that
you're going to get a great 

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score from your quarterback that
week. 

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But I think it's kind of like 
those guys are kind of unicorns 

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in, in that regard. 
Whereas if you had that profile 

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without the rushing, then yeah, 
it's like, oh, you had had a 

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great week and you got 25 points
put down some weeks it's going 

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to be 15. 
Like Brock Purdy's a great 

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example of that without the 
rushing. 

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Like he is going to be 
freakishly efficient, but he 

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he's not rushing very much. 
And so the weeks where Brock 

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Purdy is chucking a bunch of 
touchdowns, you're going to be 

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really happy you played him. 
But the weeks where the 

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touchdowns come on the ground 
instead, you're going to be a 

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little less happy. 
See, he's he's got 15 expected 

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fantasy points there just from 
his passing volume, but he's not

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really adding anything in the 
way of rushing. 

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And he already is very efficient
at 8 adjusted yards per attempt.

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And these numbers for Josh Allen
and Anthony Richardson, like 

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they will not stay at, you know,
above 10 adjusted yards per 

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attempt throughout the season. 
Those are going to come down. 

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Other guys that we see with 
crazy efficiency in week one are

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Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr. 
And while I certainly expect 

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their efficiency to come down as
well, they did have decent 

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volume for both of them in spite
of the Saints just absolutely 

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beating the brakes off of the 
Panthers. 

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So I think Carr and Baker are 
good guys to talk about for do 

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you think that their performance
was driven more by the core 

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defenses they each played or for
Carr, is it, you know, the new 

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offensive coordinator there? 
What? 

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What are we looking at for each 
of them? 

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So Derek Carr, as you can, as 
you can kind of see from the 

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chart, they did actually they 
they took the ball a decent 

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amount. 
So he had about 18 expected 

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00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:21,560
points from from passing and 
then good efficiency as well to 

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get them to around 26. 
And, and I, I guess one thing 

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that's a little bit interesting 
is that when you look at their 

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path, when you look at the 
Saints pass rate over expected, 

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it was 8 1/2 or say -8 1/2. 
So that that's, that's, that's 

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kind of interesting. 
So that kind of suggests that he

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he had a lot of red zone stuff. 
Well, he did have the really he 

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had the he had a couple red zone
touchdowns right to the tight 

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ends and then he also had the 
really deep ball to Shaheed and 

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he almost. 
Right. 

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That and and that will come with
a high expected fantasy points. 

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Yeah, and they almost had the 42
1/2 times. 

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Yeah, he he almost had the hat 
trick there with touchdowns to 

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Saints tight ends, depending on 
how you classify Taysom Hill, 

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because Taysom almost came down 
with a tight end or with a 

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touchdown on a wheel route. 
It was, it was a pretty 

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incredible, I was surprised that
Taysom Hill was the guy they 

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were drawing that up for. 
But I mean, it was it was darn 

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near a very impressive catch 
there. 

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But Carl will have to settle for
just two touchdowns to two 

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different Saints tight ends. 
Maybe he can hit the hat trick a

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different week. 
Other guys that live in this are

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our favorite quadrant, this top 
right quadrant where you are 

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passing with a lot of volume and
you're also doing so 

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efficiently. 
These are the guys that are are 

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going to be really ideal for 
fantasy. 

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And certainly if you happen to 
be a Russian quarterback as well

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and you can somehow find 
yourself here, that is That's 

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the cheat code. 
Josh Allen, you know, in years 

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past would live here. 
I'm a little concerned that the 

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Bills told us exactly who they 
were last season and a large 

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chunk of the fantasy industry 
just plugged their ears and did 

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the La La, la, la I'm not 
listening thing. 

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They're like, yeah, well, when 
we do our projection model, 

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we're not actually going to use 
the Bills pass rate from the 

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second-half of the season. 
We're going to use something 

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closer to the historical average
because they they really didn't 

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pass very much in the 
second-half. 

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It's like, Nope, that's just 
what they want to do now. 

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At least that's how it looks 
Week 1. 

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I mean, Josh Allen looks like 
the entire offense and they they

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did not throw very many times. 
I think he had just 30 total 

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drop backs and only 23 of them 
turned into pass attempts. 

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So the Bills seem like they 
might be a low passing volume 

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offense, which is going to be a 
bit of a departure for for Josh 

147
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Allen. 
But I don't really think it 

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matters for his fantasy value 
and kind of the the two ships in

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the night for rushing 
quarterbacks as far. 

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Stop on Josh Allen. 
So I think it's important for 

151
00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:24,920
Josh Allen that his team is 
going to live and die by what he

152
00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:28,040
does. 
And so if if the the Bills are 

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having a bad day, he probably 
will have more, more attempts. 

154
00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:39,480
But having having kind of like 
lost Stefan digs and then going 

155
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to this more rush heavy attack, 
I guess it does make me a little

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bit more concerned for his 
stability than it would have 

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been in years past. 
I do think there is some of that

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possibility that it's the floor 
is going to be lower this year. 

159
00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:00,280
Yeah, good. 
Great shout there. 

160
00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:03,880
I agree with that 100%. 
I think Yeah, where he's really 

161
00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:07,840
hurt the most is at his floor. 
You you can always get the 

162
00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:11,120
insane ceiling games from Josh 
Allen because he might just 

163
00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:14,000
score every touchdown for his 
team in any given week. 

164
00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:19,000
But the the guy who I I wanted 
to compare to him is Lamar 

165
00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:23,440
Jackson, who we saw past at an 
absurd rate. 

166
00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:26,480
He had, I believe his second 
most attempts in his entire 

167
00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:29,000
career. 
Now, granted, they were trailing

168
00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:32,400
in that game to something they 
did not do very often last year.

169
00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:36,680
And I'm I'm wondering, I 
certainly think there's a lot of

170
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it that came down to the fact 
that, you know, they were just 

171
00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:43,440
in an absolute battle with the 
Chiefs and really needed to 

172
00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:47,360
throw to stay in it. 
And it's not like Lamar did not 

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00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:49,880
run in that game either. 
He was spectacular on the 

174
00:10:49,880 --> 00:10:53,760
ground, you know, leading the 
league for quarterback rushing 

175
00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:56,160
yards. 
He's he's very good in week one 

176
00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:59,520
on the ground. 
I think we'll see his expected 

177
00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:03,160
fantasy points from passing come
down a bit as they play 

178
00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:05,680
opponents. 
That or not the Chiefs. 

179
00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:09,960
But what are your thoughts on 
what we saw from the Ravens? 

180
00:11:11,680 --> 00:11:18,720
And so obviously this is going 
to be the maybe not, I don't 

181
00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:21,880
know if it's going to be the 
highest passing game or or or 

182
00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:24,560
attempt game of the year for 
them, but it's it this is the 

183
00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:28,200
upper echelon for them passing 
heavy. 

184
00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,440
And then one one thing that's 
kind of interesting a little bit

185
00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:36,880
is that so they actually their 
pass rate was 2.7 underexpected.

186
00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:43,000
So I think that's a little bit 
interesting like in that like it

187
00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:46,600
wasn't them. 
They're they're still pretty 

188
00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:49,800
close and neutral there. 
And it'll be interesting to see 

189
00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:54,240
in in game scripts that 10 more 
to them being winning if they're

190
00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:57,400
still couldn't pretty close to 
that pass rate over expected. 

191
00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:00,880
But that that to say it, it was 
game strip driven. 

192
00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:05,840
And also think the efficiency 
here being relatively low for 

193
00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:08,880
Lamar. 
They're playing the chiefs 

194
00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:12,680
defense. 
So what expect and we expect 

195
00:12:12,680 --> 00:12:16,600
kind of lower volume and what 
more more efficient outings in 

196
00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:19,320
the future. 
But I think you're you're pretty

197
00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:23,240
likely to get the, you're still 
alive to get the kind of games 

198
00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:27,440
that we did last year where if 
the the Ravens go up enough, 

199
00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:30,680
they they, they stopped throwing
the ball. 

200
00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:34,840
You you snuck a little likely 
punt in there. 

201
00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:37,800
I don't know if that was on 
purpose, but I I appreciated it.

202
00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:40,880
Yeah. 
I mean, I would I just say that 

203
00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:45,560
when you get to a situation 
where your expected pass rate is

204
00:12:45,560 --> 00:12:49,880
so high, like I think what if 
they have like 70% pass plays 

205
00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:55,800
even, you know, it's hard to be 
over expected in that like even 

206
00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:57,960
the most, you know, unless 
you're Andy Reid, you're not 

207
00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:00,480
really getting over your 
expected pass right there. 

208
00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:03,200
He's the only guy that is just 
like, yeah, why, why do we run 

209
00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:07,520
the ball at all? 
We should throw a replay moving.

210
00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:12,440
Are are there any other guys in 
this really good quadrant that 

211
00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:17,920
you want to talk about here? 
And yeah, I, I guess that 

212
00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:21,440
Detroit are, are interesting as 
well in that they did have a 

213
00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:26,120
really high, yeah, they had a 
really high expected points from

214
00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:28,840
passing. 
And but I think a lot of that 

215
00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:30,960
was driven by their total number
of plays. 

216
00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:35,520
They, they did go to overtime 
and but when you look at their 

217
00:13:35,520 --> 00:13:39,320
pass rate over expected that was
-8.3%. 

218
00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:45,160
So I think seeing that low 
number, it is a little bit 

219
00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:49,200
concerning, especially where I'm
in raw was going, where the 

220
00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:52,520
Porter was going. 
I'm not quite alarmed there. 

221
00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:57,160
But I think that's something 
where it's something to monitor.

222
00:13:57,160 --> 00:13:59,160
It's definitely something to 
monitor because I don't think 

223
00:13:59,560 --> 00:14:03,840
the, correct me if I'm wrong, I 
don't think the Rams, they I 

224
00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:06,920
don't think they've been like 
this kind of like run funnel 

225
00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:10,320
team. 
No, I I don't think so. 

226
00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:12,720
I mean, I just think that's what
Detroit wants to. 

227
00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:15,400
Detroit really would like to run
the ball a lot. 

228
00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:20,520
That's right, right. 
And, and with how highly drafted

229
00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:23,560
those guys were that that, that 
that's a little bit concerning, 

230
00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:26,880
I think. 
Yeah, I I think that's a good 

231
00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:29,400
shout. 
You know, with them getting so 

232
00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:32,560
much of their passing volume 
just coming from the really high

233
00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:34,800
play volume from going into 
overtime and being in a 

234
00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:38,960
competitive game with the Rams, 
you might you might see lower 

235
00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:42,160
pass volume there. 
So I I would expect Gough to 

236
00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:44,920
trend more towards the middle of
this chart here. 

237
00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:48,560
I would expect his efficiency to
stay pretty good though. 

238
00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:51,760
It's a well designed offense. 
They have a bunch of really good

239
00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:54,720
weapons. 
You know, same same for CJ 

240
00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:57,880
Stroud. 
If anything, CJ Stroud having 20

241
00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:01,240
expected fantasy points from 
passing with Joe Mixon getting 

242
00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:04,320
30 carries. 
I mean, I I think that the 

243
00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:07,120
ceiling is pretty astronomical 
for CJ Stroud. 

244
00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:11,680
It just remains to be seen how 
much the Texans want to actually

245
00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:14,720
cut him loose. 
A big part of that it. 

246
00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,600
Has to be pushed they really. 
It's going to come down to how 

247
00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:20,720
good they are and how good their
opponents are, right? 

248
00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:25,160
Yeah, yeah, for sure. 
Like if, if they get behind in 

249
00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:26,840
the game strip, that's that's 
when you're going to see 

250
00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:31,920
fireworks from CJ Stroud. 
And obviously you do have 20 

251
00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:33,440
expected points from passing 
here. 

252
00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:36,880
So you do have good volume, but 
that's another one where their 

253
00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:38,520
pass rate over expected was 
negative. 

254
00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:43,280
And so, and some of that is just
play volume count. 

255
00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:48,680
And so if they if they get up 
big and not not sure how often 

256
00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:50,960
that happens this year. 
And that that would be something

257
00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:55,560
where where you're concerned 
about Stroud's counting stats in

258
00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:59,440
those games. 
Yeah, I don't want to just blow 

259
00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:03,000
by these other guys that were in
our good quadrant, but for for 

260
00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:07,480
Tua, I I don't really have a a 
ton he that looks like the 

261
00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:11,120
Dolphins offense from last year,
except with more a Chan in the 

262
00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:13,560
receiving game. 
We'll we'll talk about running 

263
00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:14,840
backs. 
We didn't learn, I don't think 

264
00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:16,680
we we didn't learn anything new 
about Tua. 

265
00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:18,720
I don't think, right. 
And and it's going to be 

266
00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:21,160
efficient. 
Yeah, the the offense is going 

267
00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:23,520
to revolve around him trying to 
tyreek and waddle. 

268
00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:27,760
Yeah. 
And for Mahomes, I mean, the 

269
00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:31,040
only thing that we learned there
was really about the quality of 

270
00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:33,400
their receivers this year 
relative to last year. 

271
00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:37,520
It's substantially better for 
all the people that you know, 

272
00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:41,360
we're predicting that this might
be a Mahomes scorched earth 

273
00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:45,080
season where you know, he he 
gets back to his over 5000 yards

274
00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:49,520
and 40 touchdowns type of type 
of seasons Week 1 as you're 

275
00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:51,120
feeling pretty bullish about 
that. 

276
00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:53,640
I think the Chiefs are going to 
be really fun. 

277
00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:56,720
I believe that they play the 
Bengals next week. 

278
00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:59,360
And man, if the Bengals play 
like they did against the 

279
00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,680
Patriots, it could get really, 
really ugly. 

280
00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:10,079
They might get dog walked there 
a couple other guys that were 

281
00:17:10,079 --> 00:17:12,480
kind of on the fringe of our 
favorite quadrant. 

282
00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:18,200
Darnold just looks like he's a a
quarterback operating in a 

283
00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:21,560
really well designed offense. 
I mean, it it was this way last 

284
00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:23,680
year as well after they lost 
Cousins. 

285
00:17:24,839 --> 00:17:27,440
Whoever was going to play 
quarterback for the Minnesota 

286
00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:32,680
Vikings was going to do well. 
Like it's just a very much San 

287
00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:36,000
Francisco system. 
Like it is a good system, like a

288
00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,720
quarterbacks are set up for 
success there, so. 

289
00:17:39,360 --> 00:17:45,040
I think 11 bit of caution on 
like getting too excited about 

290
00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:52,960
Arnold is they did play the 
Panthers and they that feels 

291
00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:56,680
like one where we just have the 
one week data point and that's 

292
00:17:56,680 --> 00:18:01,440
not just like assume that 
Darnold is going to be just 

293
00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:04,880
really good. 
Now we still a little bit of 

294
00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:07,120
that caution warranted there, 
but I don't think that's 

295
00:18:07,120 --> 00:18:10,560
anything controversial. 
Yeah, they play play the Giants,

296
00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:13,400
not the Panthers. 
But yeah, yeah, you're right. 

297
00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:19,240
Giants also not very good. 
I I would assume, if you made me

298
00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:23,120
guess which defense is going to 
be the better defense over the 

299
00:18:23,120 --> 00:18:25,680
course of the year, I would 
assume the Giants are better 

300
00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,280
than the Panthers, but I think 
they're probably both bad. 

301
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:33,920
So the other guy I wanted to 
mention was Hertz. 

302
00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:37,200
He did really poorly as a 
passer. 

303
00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:41,320
He had one of the worst PFF 
passing grades on the week. 

304
00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:45,440
Are you at all concerned about 
Hertz? 

305
00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:51,760
And I am not really I don't 
think so. 

306
00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:58,240
And those, those PFF grades, I, 
I think I saw something that 

307
00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:03,040
those PFF grades, they tend to 
correlate pretty highly with 

308
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:06,080
your, with the quarterbacks 
average have to target. 

309
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:09,040
And so if they're not at, 
they're not showing it down the 

310
00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:14,040
field much and they're not going
to get those, they're not, 

311
00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:16,840
they're not going to get a high 
PFF grade. 

312
00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,680
I'm that, that I think that's 
mainly over, over single game 

313
00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:25,120
samples. 
He didn't play great and you see

314
00:19:25,120 --> 00:19:30,040
just 6.7 and adjusted yards per 
attempt that, and that is a good

315
00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:34,000
bit below where he, he sort of 
started off last year. 

316
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:37,320
So I guess you, you could be a 
little bit concerned with that, 

317
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:42,280
but I, I think there's, there's 
two things. 

318
00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:44,800
It's a long season. 
You're you're going to see games

319
00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:48,840
from, from guys where it's not, 
it's not quite at their, at 

320
00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:53,880
their expectation. 
And I still think Hertz is 

321
00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:55,080
really good. 
He's got some really good 

322
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:57,920
receivers. 
I saw some kind of encouraging 

323
00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:02,960
stuff about the Devonta Smith in
the slot and being smart about 

324
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:05,720
that. 
And then the other thing that 

325
00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:07,920
I'm not sure how much this 
matters, but he is a mobile 

326
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:10,600
quarterback. 
His mobility is important. 

327
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:15,160
And they definitely struggled 
with the with the surface there.

328
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,840
So that, that, that that was a 
game where I kind of watched 

329
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:20,480
start to finish. 
And there was a lot of moments 

330
00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:25,080
where, you know, nobody's open. 
He goes to make a move and he's 

331
00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:32,280
he's like Bambi on the ice and. 
And I, I, I, I think that that's

332
00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:35,080
something where I'm not moving. 
I'm not changing my opinion on 

333
00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:38,640
Hertz yet. 
Yeah, I, I am in lockstep with 

334
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:39,840
you. 
Don't think there's any reason 

335
00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:42,960
to panic there. 
The tush push stuff. 

336
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:48,400
I mean, again, how much of that 
is just, you know, it's week 1. 

337
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:50,600
They're they're kind of getting 
their feet under them or they 

338
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:52,400
quite literally couldn't get 
their feet under them. 

339
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:56,200
They're on a new field, so 
they're on the bad field there. 

340
00:20:56,280 --> 00:21:01,920
So I I'm not not concerned about
Hertz at all really here, but 

341
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:05,160
let's transition to guys that we
are concerned about. 

342
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:09,280
So moving to the bottom 2 
quadrants. 

343
00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:14,240
If you end up really low in 
either of these quadrants, even 

344
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:17,480
the high volume 1, sometimes 
like these guys in the high 

345
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,920
volume quadrant like Bryce 
Young, Deshaun Watson, Daniel 

346
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:24,240
Jones, Bo Knicks, they're how 
you know. 

347
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:26,960
They're high volume because 
they're playing so bad their 

348
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:29,160
team. 
Yeah, it's high volume because 

349
00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:32,320
they're losing really badly and 
there's nothing to do but throw 

350
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:35,360
the ball. 
Man, I want to. 

351
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:38,520
I mean, none of the rookies 
really look, none of the rookie 

352
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,400
quarterbacks that started looked
great this week. 

353
00:21:42,120 --> 00:21:47,320
But I got to start with Bonex, 
man, I I almost was buying into 

354
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:53,520
the the kind of data slicing of,
you know, if you remove all of 

355
00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,920
Bo Nix's short passing, he 
actually was quite a good deep 

356
00:21:56,920 --> 00:22:01,920
passer and he did not look like 
a great deep passer here in week

357
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:04,520
one. 
That being said, I'm I'm glad 

358
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:08,280
that they, you know, Sean Payton
wasn't like just running the 

359
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:12,120
ball a million times with no no 
success. 

360
00:22:12,120 --> 00:22:13,360
He was willing to throw the 
ball. 

361
00:22:13,360 --> 00:22:16,760
So I'm not like full panicking 
on Bo Nix. 

362
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:20,200
He actually, you know, did some 
stuff with his legs and and 

363
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:24,360
looked pretty interesting there.
So I think that if you can get 

364
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:28,200
to a functional offense, he 
definitely could develop into 

365
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:30,000
something that might be useful 
for fantasy. 

366
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,480
But I do think we're a bit of a 
ways off there. 

367
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:37,120
And I, I don't know, I mean, 
there were definitely some 

368
00:22:37,120 --> 00:22:41,280
really bad throws that he made 
out there, but I think another 

369
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:45,160
big part of it is they're 
they're out there playing 

370
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:48,680
receivers that have no business 
being like not even on the 

371
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,040
field, but on a starting 53 man 
roster. 

372
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:55,240
Like what are they? 
What's I don't know, I don't 

373
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:57,960
really get what Sean Payton is 
doing with. 

374
00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:03,120
The the personnel plan has been,
has been pro and it is I guess. 

375
00:23:03,120 --> 00:23:07,440
I guess one thing that is 
interesting for both Nix is that

376
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:10,040
so his pass rate over expected 
was -1 1/2. 

377
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:13,640
So kind of neutral. 
So they, they were willing, and 

378
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,280
I think Sean Siegel made this 
point, they are willing to, to 

379
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:19,200
let him throw. 
Whereas Bryce Young on the other

380
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:24,320
hand, he, he was -8 and so they 
were really trying to hide that 

381
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:26,440
guy. 
And so like they're, they're, 

382
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:28,520
they're letting Bonex figure it 
out. 

383
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:35,320
And so it is, it is at least a 
little bit hopeful that his is 

384
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:37,280
expected. 
The fantasy points is high. 

385
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:41,520
He's getting some rushing and 
that if like he is a rookie, so 

386
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:46,960
maybe he can have some kind of 
turn around and there's a little

387
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,520
bit of hope there. 
I think that's somebody who you 

388
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:54,720
could probably play in in DFS 
and stuff like that with like a 

389
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,760
he's going to be low priced. 
He can be a vomit stack that you

390
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,760
can like maybe work something 
out. 

391
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:07,760
It's very gross, but like, 
compared to someone like Bryce 

392
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:12,400
Young, Deshaun Watson, Daniel 
Jones, where they've been 

393
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,320
playing for a long time and, and
we kind of know who they are 

394
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:19,360
and, and they're still this bad.
I, I, I think it's a, what I'm 

395
00:24:19,360 --> 00:24:21,360
trying to say is it's, it's 
incrementally better than those 

396
00:24:21,360 --> 00:24:23,520
guys. 
Yeah, so we're we're in 

397
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:25,080
agreement. 
We're leaving a light on for 

398
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,560
Bonex as far as playing him in 
DFS. 

399
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,840
I'm definitely not doing it this
next week against the Steelers, 

400
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:35,360
but maybe let's let's look like 
what's their week 4 matchup 

401
00:24:35,360 --> 00:24:36,800
looking like? 
Give him a little time to to 

402
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:38,480
marinate. 
You know, what's what's he 

403
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:43,160
looking like in week 4? 
Where do we get the Broncos week

404
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:48,600
4? 
The Jets also not great. 

405
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:52,600
Maybe week five, maybe week 5. 
Actually the Raiders. 

406
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,320
There you go, Broncos, Raiders 
week 5. 

407
00:24:55,320 --> 00:25:00,280
Go ahead and reserve your Millie
maker lineups for week 5 right 

408
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:02,560
now and you can go ahead and 
pencil Bonex in there. 

409
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:10,440
Play it before you see it for 
for a guy that were I mean, at 

410
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:14,840
least I am less optimistic on 
you mentioned the Panthers 

411
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,360
Canalis or they're trying to 
hide Bryce Young. 

412
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:21,880
We saw a absolutely putrid 
rookie season for him. 

413
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:25,880
And then just more of the same 
here, even after adding Deontay 

414
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:29,760
Johnson like trying, trying to 
help Bryce Young. 

415
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:33,400
Are we can we just call it over 
for him? 

416
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:37,400
Is it too hasty to say that it's
over for Bryce Young? 

417
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:43,480
I think we can. 
The body is floating out on the 

418
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:47,520
wooden casket, on the water. 
We can let go of the Flamiaros. 

419
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:53,040
Yeah, I I have an offer to 
anyone in the chat if you'd like

420
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,240
to buy my Bryce Young basketball
teams. 

421
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,440
They are currently for sale at 
$0.90 on the dollar. 

422
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:03,280
Slide into my DMS. 
That's the most expensive 

423
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,280
they'll be all season. 
Yeah, I know. 

424
00:26:05,360 --> 00:26:09,880
I'm trying to move them now, 
man. 

425
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:13,480
Other, other guys that looked 
absolutely atrocious. 

426
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:16,640
Deshaun Watson does not look 
good. 

427
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:20,680
Did not. 
OK, you want to I guess. 

428
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:24,520
One thing I think a little bit 
interesting to talk about is I 

429
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:28,800
feel like Joe Burrow has started
every year, the last, this would

430
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:32,680
be 3 years running now and he's 
in the, he's in the middle but 

431
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:34,760
bottom left quadrant of this 
chart. 

432
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:40,840
And it's like, Oh no, we expect 
Burrow to be to improve and he's

433
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:42,600
just hanging around in the 
middle of the chart. 

434
00:26:43,360 --> 00:26:50,360
So I'm, I'm, I'm actually a 
little bit now concerned about 

435
00:26:50,360 --> 00:26:52,000
Burrow. 
And, and, and you have the 

436
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:57,560
contextual stuff like apparently
his wrist is hurting and Chase 

437
00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,720
held out. 
So it's going to take them time 

438
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:02,880
to get back. 
T Higgins had the like the, the,

439
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:06,920
the, the 17th hamstring strain, 
it feels like. 

440
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:10,520
And then he's like, oh, yeah. 
Then there's the tape analysis 

441
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:14,440
where, Oh yeah, he just gave up 
on the deep route and dropped 

442
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:18,480
his eyes. 
I maybe he can figure that out, 

443
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:24,280
but I'm I'm definitely starting 
to lose some patience in in 

444
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:27,760
borough like a. 
Lot yeah, the I mean the Bengals

445
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:33,200
are just doing poverty franchise
stuff like just not not getting 

446
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:38,400
a deal done with Chase where I 
really I just don't understand 

447
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:40,360
the teams that kind of drag this
stuff out. 

448
00:27:40,360 --> 00:27:43,360
It just feels like a lose lose 
for everyone. 

449
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:47,240
You're you're not going to end 
up saving any money by dragging 

450
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,080
it out. 
Like if anything, you you wanted

451
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:53,400
to try and get the deal done 
before the other big guys reset 

452
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:55,800
the market. 
It really. 

453
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,200
When when inflation is 8%, do it
now. 

454
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:00,520
Yeah. 
It just it kind of baffles me 

455
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:05,120
that they are they're they're 
making the organizational 

456
00:28:05,120 --> 00:28:08,960
decisions that they are. 
But yeah, slightly concerned 

457
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,000
about Burrow. 
The risk stuff is, is the most 

458
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:13,680
concerning thing to me. 
I think as far as, you know, 

459
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:15,240
like these guys are professional
athletes. 

460
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:17,800
They're competitors. 
Like Jamar Chase wants to get 

461
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:18,920
out there and win football 
games. 

462
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:20,920
T Higgins wants to get out there
and win football games. 

463
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:22,920
Joe Burrow wants to win football
games like. 

464
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:24,480
Right. 
I'm not, I'm not trying to say 

465
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,600
that they're gonna, they're 
gonna quit it just it's, it's 

466
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:30,760
stuff that isn't great. 
No, no, the the vibes, the vibes

467
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:33,880
are definitely bad. 
I think I'm, I'm gonna, I'm 

468
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:38,160
willing to, I'm willing to, you 
know, think that they can still 

469
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:41,920
get it together, but it, it may 
be a bit of a slower start than 

470
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:45,760
people were hoping for. 
Right, you're definitely looking

471
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:51,040
at a slow start. 
Yeah, other other guys that were

472
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:56,080
concerning or slow start 
candidates, man Caleb Williams, 

473
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,000
that was a a pretty poor looking
store. 

474
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:03,440
He just, I mean, he looked like 
the classic, you know, guy who's

475
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:05,920
the better athlete than everyone
that he plays against in 

476
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,880
college. 
And then he gets to the NFL and 

477
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,640
all of a sudden all the same old
tricks don't work anymore. 

478
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:14,280
Like he's trying to extend plays
and get out. 

479
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:17,240
I don't know if you saw the play
where he's, you know, getting 

480
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:18,800
pressure or something. 
Yeah. 

481
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:22,240
Tries to do the double turn. 
And it's just like, yeah, no, 

482
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:25,920
this this defensive lineman 
who's running you down is 

483
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:28,560
actually faster than you now. 
So it's not going to work. 

484
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:34,640
And I mean, I'm not I'm not 
going to say that Caleb is a 

485
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:39,560
bust after one game, but I will 
say is, you know, it might it 

486
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:42,120
might take a little development.
And I I think there were a lot 

487
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,600
of people that were ready to 
just put the stamp of like, oh, 

488
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:48,080
he's going to come into the 
league and light it on fire. 

489
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:51,520
And I think he's got a decent 
amount of headwind. 

490
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:55,680
That's going to make that a 
little challenging for him. 

491
00:29:55,680 --> 00:30:00,280
When you think about, I mean, 
the Bears play calling looked 

492
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:03,760
just as bad as the Seahawks play
calling looked last year with 

493
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,920
Shane Waldron. 
And so, you know, a leopard does

494
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:12,040
not change his spots and right, 
I think we're I'm unfortunately 

495
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,160
think that we are in for more of
the same. 

496
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:21,520
I I'm maybe a little bit more 
hopeful on Caleb than than some 

497
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:25,440
of the other guys just because 
like he, he was, he was this 

498
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:28,040
like game number one overall 
pick. 

499
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:33,280
They do hopefully O Dunze comes 
back soon, but he is on a 

500
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:35,640
priority. 
They still do have some pretty 

501
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:39,280
strong receivers there that the 
play calling is is that 

502
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:42,840
concerning? 
The the bad play is concerning. 

503
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:47,240
But of all of all these 
situations where something could

504
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:51,640
turn around by mid season, I 
think that's something where you

505
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:54,320
could get something closer to 
average by the end. 

506
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,080
Yeah, absolutely agree with 
that. 

507
00:30:57,080 --> 00:31:01,360
I just, I think that the and 
absolute ceiling outcomes where 

508
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:05,080
Caleb comes out and he's, you 
know, right breaking the rookie 

509
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:07,720
passing record. 
I don't want to say that they 

510
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:09,880
are entirely off the table after
one game. 

511
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,360
I think that's a little hasty 
and and kind of silly. 

512
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:16,320
Yeah, I think they're 
substantially less likely after 

513
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,280
what we saw from one game. 
And and again, I don't want to 

514
00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:21,800
put it all on him like. 
It's going to be a rookie 

515
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,280
season. 
It I I think the bears might 

516
00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:29,240
just be the bears still. 
So that's that's all. 

517
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:34,120
Another another sophomore 
quarterback that looked pretty 

518
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:38,960
bad is Will Levis here, man, 
Will Levis. 

519
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:45,280
I mean, I, I don't really know. 
I don't know what to do here 

520
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:49,840
with like say, say you have will
Levis like on a dynasty team, 

521
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,920
but what do you do? 
Like you just you have to hold 

522
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:54,080
him, right? 
There's nothing you can. 

523
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:57,200
You can't trade him for anything
really, right? 

524
00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:03,760
Yeah, I mean, you, you have to 
wait for a better stretch of 

525
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:08,240
games for sure. 
And I mean, it's helpful that he

526
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:14,040
he has a lot of leash as a 
starter, like until or unless he

527
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:17,280
gets injured. 
Like who are they going to play 

528
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:20,960
instead? 
And but when you when you have 

529
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:24,480
the head coach saying, oh, I 
wish we'd just plundered every 

530
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:29,240
drive instead. 
Yeah, it's not great. 

531
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:32,480
And that is, yeah, that's pretty
rough. 

532
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:38,160
And and then you have stuff like
DeAndre Hopkins has the knee 

533
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:41,600
injury, like Calvin Ridley's the
other guy. 

534
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:46,800
And it's it's I think that 
that's not looking or feeling 

535
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,440
great. 
You have a little bit of rushing

536
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:53,960
yards there. 
You got 36 rushing yards and but

537
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:57,360
yeah, that's not, not not a 
great air. 

538
00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:02,680
And then but then you have like 
1.8 yards adjusted for attempt. 

539
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:06,080
Like that's just 
catastrophically bad. 

540
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:11,640
Yeah, it's, it's not good. 
And yeah, the the rushing to me 

541
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:16,000
at least what I saw looked more 
like the walls are crumbling in,

542
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:20,040
you know, everything, everything
is not working and it's just 

543
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:25,240
pure desperation. 
The other guy where everything 

544
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:28,520
was not working was Kirk 
Cousins. 

545
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:33,880
I, I'm sure you know, you've 
seen the clip of him like not 

546
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:38,320
wanting to like plant off that 
that foot recovering from the 

547
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:42,760
Achilles injury on and throw 
like that was super concerning. 

548
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,640
Like and and then when you piece
that. 

549
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,240
I, I mean, you, you can't play 
this guy. 

550
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:54,000
And, and I, I, I, I was going 
to, I was going to, I was going 

551
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:56,640
to bring it up on the, on the 
kind of skill position sections.

552
00:33:56,640 --> 00:34:01,640
But like everything about his 
play suggests a guy who can't 

553
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:06,960
run and who can't throw where 
it's just, it's just dump off 

554
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:12,920
passes to Ray, Ray McLeod. 
I was like, there there's no way

555
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:16,719
a new coaching staff is going to
be like, yeah, well, we tried 

556
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:19,000
to, I, I don't believe a new 
coaching staff yet. 

557
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:22,719
We hitched our wagon to this guy
like we're just going to have 17

558
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:26,000
games in a row. 
I've done pass passes to Ray 

559
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:29,840
McLeod. 
I, I, I really do think that 

560
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:34,239
we're going to see that the 
younger guy, yeah, panics sooner

561
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:38,840
rather than later, which it is 
very necessary for, for those 

562
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:43,880
other guys, for those other the 
past catchers and to some extent

563
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:47,000
Bijan. 
Yeah, I mean, and that's that's 

564
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:49,800
kind of what I was saying when 
you when you now see it on the 

565
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,320
field and and when you kind of 
piece the timeline together, 

566
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:56,719
like the Falcons signed Kirk 
Cousins without being able to 

567
00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:59,840
watch him play, right? 
He was still recovering from the

568
00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:02,680
Achilles. 
He wasn't out there and throwing

569
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,760
and and working out for them. 
They were just signing him with 

570
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:09,840
the hope that he would be good. 
And so when you kind of think of

571
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:13,440
chronologically how things 
happen, it's like, OK, we signed

572
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:16,320
Kirk Cousins prior to seeing him
fully recovered. 

573
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:19,160
Kirk Cousins is going through 
rehab with the team. 

574
00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:21,200
He's he's finally getting out 
there. 

575
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:25,920
He's practicing. 
And the team is is thinking 

576
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:31,520
like, oh, OK, well, maybe maybe 
we do need to start this rookie 

577
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:33,120
quarterback that we drafted 
high. 

578
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:36,600
And maybe that was part of the 
decision making process behind 

579
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:39,840
drafting Pennix. 
At all and then resting him in 

580
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:41,320
pre season. 
Right. 

581
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:44,600
So there's those were. 
Some weird decisions that we 

582
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:46,440
were like, why are these guys 
thinking? 

583
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:51,360
That and and if you have. 
People read into, but NFL teams 

584
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:53,280
do weird things on such a 
regular basis. 

585
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:58,000
That was hard to read too much 
into and but they're reading of 

586
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:02,080
that almost being like the most 
obvious 1 looks to be correct. 

587
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:06,480
Yeah, so there the the bread 
crumbs there are concerning. 

588
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:10,280
They're leading us down a dark 
and winding path in the forest. 

589
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:13,600
And I I do not want to follow 
the Kirk Cousins bread crumbs 

590
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:15,520
here. 
You know, if you got him in a 

591
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:17,560
redraft league, you're just 
you're outright cutting him, 

592
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:19,160
right? 
There's no need to clog your 

593
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:22,320
roster with it, right? 
No, no, you, you, you put him 

594
00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:23,680
immediately. 
Yeah. 

595
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:26,400
Yeah, immediately. 
There, there. 

596
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:30,320
There's there's no world where 
you can start Kirk Cousins. 

597
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:35,120
Yeah, and it's it's one of those
things where it's to me, I 

598
00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:40,760
pretend that next week comes and
miraculously he looks back to 

599
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:44,880
his full self 100%. 
Week one, it was just the just 

600
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:48,480
the jitters, you know, whatever,
but I don't care. 

601
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:53,240
I'm not like I, I didn't lose 
all that much by cutting Kirk 

602
00:36:53,240 --> 00:36:54,520
Cousins. 
You know, whoever I picked up 

603
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:58,040
off waivers is probably replace,
you know, close enough to 

604
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:00,480
replacing him. 
And if he really looks that 

605
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:03,480
good, I can go back and get him,
you know, maybe a cost. 

606
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:07,360
When we did our main event 
draft, he went undrafted right, 

607
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:11,600
So and and single quarterback 
leads he's he's the most 

608
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:17,400
replaceable commodity. 
Yeah, a couple guys I wanted to 

609
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:21,320
really quickly touch on before 
we move to the next chart 

610
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:25,280
because we are almost 3/4 of an 
hour in here and we are on the 

611
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:29,480
1st chart. 
Jayden Daniels looks really fun 

612
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:34,120
for fantasy, but not from a 
passing standpoint, probably not

613
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:39,400
supporting any type of weapon. 
There it It's Jayden Daniel. 

614
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,520
Yeah, he's the only fantasy 
asset on the Commanders. 

615
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:46,360
It's like Josh Allen on reverse 
steroids. 

616
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:50,280
Yes, wow, that is a really 
apartment comparison. 

617
00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:55,840
Speaking of Justin, Fields kind 
of falls into that category as 

618
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:59,520
well. 
I guess for Fields, you just 

619
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:04,080
hope, I mean the volume is going
to be absolutely in the gutter 

620
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:09,040
low. 
He he graded OK as a passer in 

621
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:12,920
PFF grade. 
I guess you're just hoping that 

622
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:15,800
the team. 
Needs Justin Fields rushing to 

623
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:18,920
move the ball like that that 
that has to be an important part

624
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:23,800
of their offense. 
And so I, I, I, I think you do, 

625
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:28,160
you do have that kind of like 
prototypical floor and, and and 

626
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:31,960
ceiling combo from like a cheap,
this is, this is old school 

627
00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:35,920
cheap rushing quarterback. 
Yeah, Yep, absolutely. 

628
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:40,000
So if you have, let's do a 
quick, quick little waiver wire 

629
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:42,560
thing here. 
I had Kirk Cousins on my redraft

630
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:43,600
team. 
I cut him. 

631
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:51,720
My options are Justin Fields, 
Geno Smith, and let's see who 

632
00:38:51,720 --> 00:38:55,000
who else would be out there so. 
Streaming type options. 

633
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:57,080
Yeah. 
Yeah, and and the answer is 

634
00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:00,880
basically while Justin Fields is
is starting, he's your streamer.

635
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:03,560
You you would do him over Geno 
Smith. 

636
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:07,720
Yeah, 100%. 
What about Justin Herbert, 

637
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:14,520
Justin Fields or Justin Herbert?
And I probably I probably do 

638
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:16,800
Justin Fields still. 
OK. 

639
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:25,240
So Justin Herbert, you do you do
like you're kind of cooked from 

640
00:39:25,240 --> 00:39:28,880
both ways here. 
So like as a, as a low volume 

641
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:32,000
pocket passer, he needs to be 
really efficient. 

642
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:38,280
And then his top amongst his top
receiving options are like Josh 

643
00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:42,960
Palmer, Like you've got, you do 
have Vlad Mcconkey and we've 

644
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:45,760
high hopes for him. 
But then you've got like players

645
00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:52,720
like QJ, like it's really hard 
to to to get there squeezed on 

646
00:39:52,720 --> 00:39:55,920
both sides. 
We had a good question in the 

647
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:57,720
chat before we go to the next 
chart. 

648
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:04,760
Darnold Carr or Justin Fields. 
Arnold Car or Justin Fields? 

649
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:08,440
That's a pretty good question. 
That's a pretty fun one. 

650
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:14,360
And I mean, I'm tempted to say 
car and the Roman, the Roman 

651
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:17,360
this is in me once it's like, 
yeah, he's just going to turn 

652
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:20,720
his career around and not be. 
And the offense is so good now 

653
00:40:20,720 --> 00:40:24,120
because I saw that they that 
they're using a lot more emotion

654
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:25,280
now. 
They're using a lot more play 

655
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:33,600
action and the the realist in me
says it's probably Justin Fields

656
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:38,920
and but to be fair, you have a 
much higher chance of their car 

657
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:44,560
starting the full year and I 
prep like I guess it depends on 

658
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:48,840
how much that matters to you and
but Justin Justin fields will 

659
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:54,040
should project to me after that 
car in in any weekly starting. 

660
00:40:54,720 --> 00:40:58,040
But you also have that chance 
where they're like, they just 

661
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:01,800
hug them. 
Yeah, I think the other the last

662
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:05,760
bit on Carr is you could there 
could just be a run out where 

663
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:11,120
Carr is like a diet Matt 
Stafford type of quarter, but 

664
00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:14,200
you know not not quite as 
talented as Stafford, but going 

665
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:17,080
going to play in an efficient 
offense finally for the first 

666
00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:20,600
time in a long time and he's 
actually a pretty capable deep 

667
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:22,720
passer and he has been for his 
career. 

668
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:27,200
So you could end up with that 
outcome where, you know, like 

669
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:33,680
Matt Stafford was good for, you 
know, 3 or so big games a year 

670
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:37,520
and puts up serviceable weeks 
for the most part in the other 

671
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:39,680
weeks with a few duds sprinkled 
in. 

672
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:42,960
I I definitely could see that 
being kind of what we get for 

673
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:46,240
Derek Carr here. 
And even last year, Carr and 

674
00:41:46,240 --> 00:41:49,120
Stafford were not all that 
different in their production. 

675
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:51,400
And Starr? 
'S an efficient player. 

676
00:41:52,200 --> 00:41:54,600
Yeah. 
See are are are like even even 

677
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:58,160
in his his bad years he's 
reasonably efficient. 

678
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:01,480
So I would get toilet bowl 
efficiency from car. 

679
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:03,960
And yeah, fields is more stuck 
where? 

680
00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:08,400
Like his volume is good despite 
a 42% passer rate. 

681
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:12,360
And like, maybe that becomes a 
trend this year where like they 

682
00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:15,280
don't actually throw him that 
much, but are so they don't 

683
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:18,000
troll him and they don't throw 
that much. 

684
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:20,720
But when they do, it's in a 
really advantageous way. 

685
00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:23,160
So maybe you're getting like a 
discount. 

686
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:28,320
Ryan Tannehill Yeah. 
And I, I can see that I, I, I 

687
00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:31,600
think that's pretty reasonable. 
See, I think, I think if you're 

688
00:42:31,600 --> 00:42:34,680
out there deciding between car 
and Fields as a streaming option

689
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:36,640
this week, I think both are 
pretty reasonable. 

690
00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:44,320
Car yeah, me car probably has 
like the higher probability 

691
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:51,840
outcome of being good and fields
has the outcomes where it's like

692
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:55,520
Oh my gosh, this guy's just 
running like you you unlock the 

693
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:58,400
rushing Justin Fields and they 
they start letting him run more 

694
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:01,200
and you're just getting an 
insane like a guy that should 

695
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:04,360
have been I mean I think. 
He had double digits carried 

696
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:06,440
carries this week. 
It was like 12 or somewhere 

697
00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:09,840
between 12 and 15 carries. 
And like, if you have a 

698
00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:13,680
quarterback that's rushing like 
double digit times a game who 

699
00:43:13,680 --> 00:43:19,040
starts all year like that, 
that's like that's very, that's 

700
00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:21,800
very fantasy friendly. 
Yeah, you get, you get the high 

701
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:24,000
floor. 
But if his passing, if the 

702
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:26,880
passing volume is not there, the
passing efficiency isn't there. 

703
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:29,280
The ceiling isn't really there. 
But you could. 

704
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:32,200
He could have a weird like he 
could have a weird game where he

705
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:34,520
just chose. 
Right, you can get the the 

706
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:39,680
occasional spike weeks. 
So anyway, I let's let's move on

707
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:42,600
to the running back charts cuz 
we're we're on pace for like a 5

708
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:44,880
hour show right now. 
We love those. 

709
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:51,640
Oh no. 
Oh, now I remember how I figured

710
00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:52,920
this out. 
I eventually figured this out 

711
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:54,840
last year. 
Took me a little bit longer this

712
00:43:54,840 --> 00:43:57,280
year. 
Yeah, we're just just like a lot

713
00:43:57,280 --> 00:43:59,920
of the teams, you know, we're, 
we're knocking the knocking the 

714
00:43:59,920 --> 00:44:02,160
rest off. 
I, I, I was, I was holding out 

715
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:04,200
on SAC all of this year, all of 
this offseason. 

716
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:06,640
We we finally got the deal done 
though. 

717
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:12,720
And so just just a 
reintroduction. 

718
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:16,000
So this is this is our running 
back snaps and usage chart. 

719
00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:20,200
And so we've got in the green 
bar, this is the percentage of 

720
00:44:20,200 --> 00:44:23,560
team plays that resulted in a 
rush to this player. 

721
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:27,640
So you can see at the top here, 
you've got Jon and Taylor near 

722
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:32,720
40%, Bijon near 40%, Jordan 
Mason near 40%, Joe Mixon near 

723
00:44:32,720 --> 00:44:36,160
40%. 
And then the yellow bar is what 

724
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:40,120
percentage of their team plays 
was a drop back that this player

725
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:44,240
ran a route on. 
And so you can see that 

726
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:49,840
something pretty close to 80% of
the cults plays where Jon and 

727
00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:52,800
Taylor was either getting the 
ball or running or sorry, yeah, 

728
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:55,120
running the ball or running a 
route. 

729
00:44:55,640 --> 00:45:00,680
And so we do want we want the 
players up there. 

730
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:04,640
And some of the reason that's 
important is because with very 

731
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:09,080
few exceptions, when a running 
back gets the ball, it's because

732
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:11,200
it's a check down. 
It's because a play didn't work.

733
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:15,760
The plan, plan A was not like a 
swing route to Bijan or 

734
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:17,560
whatever. 
It was them. 

735
00:45:17,560 --> 00:45:19,120
Well, and maybe Bijan is the 
exception. 

736
00:45:19,240 --> 00:45:23,440
It was, it's not a swing route 
to Chiron or Pacheco, but the 

737
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:25,280
play they wanted to do wasn't 
there. 

738
00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:27,040
And so that they're going to 
that. 

739
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:29,840
And the way they can take 
advantage of that is just by 

740
00:45:29,840 --> 00:45:31,960
being out there. 
And so that's that's kind of 

741
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:36,480
like what we like to track here.
Yeah, and we also have pass 

742
00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:39,200
blocking and run blocking snaps 
shown there. 

743
00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:41,840
For the run blocking, you really
don't. 

744
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:44,320
You're not all that interested 
in your guy being out there for 

745
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:47,720
run blocking snaps. 
Pass blocking snaps, though, are

746
00:45:47,720 --> 00:45:50,760
adjacent to good because that 
means they're out. 

747
00:45:50,760 --> 00:45:54,960
Show that they trust it shows 
they trust this guy to protect 

748
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:58,760
their their quarterback yeah 
where it's like Josh Jacobs 

749
00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:04,840
maybe he only was maybe he only 
60%, which was like bell cow 

750
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:09,520
adjacent what we're at rush or a
route. 

751
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:14,320
But they really trust this guy 
the pass block for their QB and 

752
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:18,240
so that that that make that that
honestly makes it a little bit 

753
00:46:18,240 --> 00:46:22,120
worrying on them on Marshawn 
Lloyd that they trust this guy 

754
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:29,760
that much to pass Jordan look to
protect Jordan Love that maybe 

755
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:33,640
he's hard of the crack than than
we might have expected. 

756
00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:40,200
Yeah, the, my, my initial 
takeaways on this stuff was a 

757
00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:44,560
lot of these dead zone running 
backs, you know, like the Isaiah

758
00:46:44,560 --> 00:46:49,600
Pacheco's, the Joe Mixon's, the 
Josh Jacobs, the Rashad White's,

759
00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:54,440
Kenneth Walker's, James Cook's, 
They all got the volume that we 

760
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:57,800
were expecting, right? 
Like they say, hey, they're up 

761
00:46:57,800 --> 00:46:59,960
here at the top of the chart. 
Like that's what people were 

762
00:46:59,960 --> 00:47:03,160
paying for. 
The bigger question is one that 

763
00:47:03,160 --> 00:47:06,800
will answer when we get to the 
efficiency charts of well, it 

764
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:08,520
was paying for that volume worth
it? 

765
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:15,280
At at first glance, the guys to 
me that were a little surprising

766
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:18,400
with how much work they actually
got. 

767
00:47:19,320 --> 00:47:23,640
I mean, I expected the Patriots 
to run the ball a lot, but I for

768
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:26,280
Romandre, they just absolutely 
were feeding him. 

769
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:30,840
I'll be curious to see if he is 
able to hang on to this amount 

770
00:47:30,840 --> 00:47:34,080
of work over the whole season or
if Gibson Nicks in for a little 

771
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:36,560
bit more. 
But if Romandre hangs on to this

772
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:41,840
work the whole season, even if 
the Patriots are bad, you know 

773
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:45,640
he he probably was going a 
little too late in drafts. 

774
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:50,760
Right, right there there is a a 
quote UN quote dead zone running

775
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:53,560
back that AM performed 
relatively well. 

776
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:58,560
I know we kind of want some of 
the fear was that Zeke was 

777
00:47:58,560 --> 00:48:02,440
getting work over him last year.
So how good can he be? 

778
00:48:03,000 --> 00:48:07,200
And but he got a lot of usage 
and he played relatively well 

779
00:48:07,240 --> 00:48:14,480
with it and he he was kind of 
neutral on yardage over expected

780
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:18,840
and then 1.1 touchdowns over 
points. 

781
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:26,440
So 1/6 on the touchdown over 
expected, so relatively in in 

782
00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:30,320
line with expectations there and
so that that I I felt that an 

783
00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:33,520
encouraging start. 
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. 

784
00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:41,080
Another guy who, you know, 0 RB 
drafters down extremely bad, 

785
00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:45,560
seeing Saquon Barkley just go 
absolutely nuclear with some 

786
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:49,800
pretty incredible efficiency and
a pretty substantial bell Cal 

787
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:52,240
roll. 
Like I know that, you know, 

788
00:48:52,520 --> 00:48:56,760
people were were concerned that 
Saquon might lose some snaps to 

789
00:48:56,760 --> 00:48:59,520
Gainwell or Shipley. 
And that's certainly something 

790
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:01,800
that could still happen over, 
you know, it's a long season, 

791
00:49:01,800 --> 00:49:05,480
but he was out there for a damn 
near 80% of snaps. 

792
00:49:06,680 --> 00:49:09,920
Saquon was only off the field 
22% of the time. 

793
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:13,360
So I mean, the the role looks 
good. 

794
00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:18,320
Again, it was the Brazil game. 
So the field was, you know, left

795
00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:21,840
a lot to to question of OK, how,
how good was he actually? 

796
00:49:21,840 --> 00:49:23,400
Was it just defenders were 
falling down? 

797
00:49:23,400 --> 00:49:26,520
But he to my eyes, he looked 
pretty good. 

798
00:49:27,480 --> 00:49:31,440
You know, that's coming from a 
guy with like sub 1% Saquon. 

799
00:49:32,280 --> 00:49:35,240
So how are you feeling about 
Saquon for this season? 

800
00:49:35,240 --> 00:49:38,400
Is this, is this what it's going
to be for the whole year or? 

801
00:49:39,400 --> 00:49:45,120
So I thought, I thought he kind 
of looked like a savvy veteran 

802
00:49:45,120 --> 00:49:49,720
running back who has receiving 
skills SO1II. 

803
00:49:49,720 --> 00:49:54,760
And I think the receiving skills
is probably maybe potentially a 

804
00:49:54,760 --> 00:49:58,920
big differentiator between him 
and kind of a, a typical older 

805
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:03,520
guy where you know, like he had 
that he had that touchdown on 

806
00:50:03,520 --> 00:50:06,400
the wheel route where he was 
good at getting in bounds. 

807
00:50:06,880 --> 00:50:10,600
Like he was finding he was 
finding gaps where they were 

808
00:50:10,600 --> 00:50:17,120
there and exploding through it. 
And however, I think, I do not 

809
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:21,200
think this is anywhere close to 
the sake one of old where when 

810
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:23,320
he had to meet somebody in the 
hole. 

811
00:50:23,640 --> 00:50:25,560
And I think this makes a big 
difference. 

812
00:50:25,560 --> 00:50:28,160
This is a big difference between
like the young explosive guys 

813
00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:30,400
and the older guys when they 
have to, when they have to meet 

814
00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:32,480
somebody at the hole and beat 
them. 

815
00:50:33,600 --> 00:50:37,520
And the younger guy, like nobody
wins all the time there, but 

816
00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:40,680
they, they make a go of it and 
sometimes they win and they get 

817
00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:43,320
through that guy, they make a 
miss and make an explosive play 

818
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:46,240
where that happened a couple of 
times for sake. 1. 

819
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:51,320
And it was just very clear that 
one-on-one he would, he was just

820
00:50:51,320 --> 00:50:54,880
not going to beat somebody. 
And there was like even some 

821
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:58,360
when he had a long run and the 
safety was there, like the say 

822
00:50:58,360 --> 00:51:01,400
quantum old probably would have 
ate that guy, ate that guy for 

823
00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:04,720
dinner, but he tried this little
stiff arm and he got tackled. 

824
00:51:05,440 --> 00:51:10,440
And so the Eagles will certainly
take that for as long as it 

825
00:51:10,440 --> 00:51:12,640
lasts. 
It is week 1. 

826
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:18,240
So I think that that's something
where you're still I I I still, 

827
00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:20,480
I think that the watch is still 
out there. 

828
00:51:20,640 --> 00:51:24,040
For how long that can last. 
I think I think it can last. 

829
00:51:24,240 --> 00:51:29,000
It can certainly last a while. 
I, I, I'm still I'm, I'm, I'm 

830
00:51:29,000 --> 00:51:31,080
skeptical as to how long that 
lasts. 

831
00:51:31,160 --> 00:51:33,080
I think that's the sooner rather
than later thing. 

832
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:36,040
You're you're hoping that. 
When not if. 

833
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:39,680
You're, you're hoping he's 
following the DeAndre Swift 

834
00:51:40,560 --> 00:51:43,600
pattern of last year where he he
comes out of the gate looking 

835
00:51:43,600 --> 00:51:45,800
really strong. 
You know it's lighting the world

836
00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:46,240
on. 
Fire. 

837
00:51:46,240 --> 00:51:48,240
I think that's kind of like the 
the most likely. 

838
00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:54,640
Yeah, Speaking of DeAndre Swift,
it got the most work by far on 

839
00:51:54,640 --> 00:51:57,520
the bears. 
You know, was out there 65% of 

840
00:51:57,520 --> 00:52:01,480
snaps. 
But man, did he not do anything 

841
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:04,480
with it. 
It it was not good. 

842
00:52:04,480 --> 00:52:09,240
He was, you know, well below his
fantasy fantasy points. 

843
00:52:09,240 --> 00:52:12,560
He was not efficient. 
I mean, part of that, I think is

844
00:52:12,560 --> 00:52:18,160
the bears and their online, but 
man, for for all the work that 

845
00:52:18,160 --> 00:52:22,960
he got like this is This is why 
we don't pay for and he wasn't 

846
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:26,000
going, you know, that early. 
He was he was in that, you know,

847
00:52:26,000 --> 00:52:29,840
Remandre Stevenson range. 
So you even have to spend an arm

848
00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:32,600
and a leg on him. 
But this is This is why these 

849
00:52:32,600 --> 00:52:35,800
running back profiles got pushed
down this year 'cause you know, 

850
00:52:35,800 --> 00:52:38,280
in years past or DeAndre Soff 
would have been like a fifth, 

851
00:52:38,280 --> 00:52:41,120
sixth round pick. 
Like that sinks your team right 

852
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:44,160
there. 
If you if you get, you know, 65%

853
00:52:44,160 --> 00:52:48,440
snapshare, terribly inefficient 
guy on what's probably not a 

854
00:52:48,440 --> 00:52:51,760
very good offense. 
Like that's it's curtains for 

855
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:53,320
that pick. 
That's not a good one. 

856
00:52:54,600 --> 00:52:59,040
Right. 
And you and you certainly need 

857
00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:04,760
the offense to be a lot better 
because despite him getting this

858
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:09,680
really high snapshare, not high 
snapshare equated to like 6 

859
00:53:09,680 --> 00:53:13,040
expected points and he scored, 
he scored three. 

860
00:53:15,280 --> 00:53:20,400
So certainly it's always hard to
figure out like how much of that

861
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:25,160
was like this offense was just 
dog shit and him not being up to

862
00:53:25,160 --> 00:53:29,320
the end up to the task. 
But it's it's it's not looking 

863
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:33,920
good because like kind of you 
need one of them to you need him

864
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:39,080
to play a lot better, which as 
an older running back it and 

865
00:53:39,080 --> 00:53:43,800
starting zone week 1 is is is is
per or or you need a dramatic 

866
00:53:43,800 --> 00:53:50,280
improvement in the offense. 
Yeah, other other roles that I 

867
00:53:50,280 --> 00:53:54,600
thought were worth highlighting.
Rumors of Kyron's demise were 

868
00:53:54,600 --> 00:53:58,440
greatly exaggerated. 
Sky still has one of the best 

869
00:53:58,440 --> 00:54:03,960
roles in the league. 
He he still looks exactly like 

870
00:54:03,960 --> 00:54:06,440
he did last year. 
Right. 

871
00:54:06,920 --> 00:54:10,400
Yeah, I think it's, I think it's
interesting a little bit that 

872
00:54:10,760 --> 00:54:14,960
even after the game and Sean 
McVay was like, I did not mean 

873
00:54:14,960 --> 00:54:19,120
to use them that much. 
And like he is like he somehow 

874
00:54:19,120 --> 00:54:21,920
did. 
And it felt like all of last 

875
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:24,440
year they were like, we did not 
mean to use them that much. 

876
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:30,120
But when it gets into the game, 
they're trying to win like it's 

877
00:54:30,120 --> 00:54:34,040
do we put Tyron in? 
Do we put Ronnie Rivers in like 

878
00:54:35,160 --> 00:54:38,560
Blake Quorum not even in in in 
consideration there right now? 

879
00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:43,760
And it does seem like that 
tendence, that coaching tendency

880
00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:48,200
of to rely on one guy that he 
trusts is holding pretty strong 

881
00:54:48,200 --> 00:54:51,480
right there. 
Yeah, I mean, just like he did 

882
00:54:51,480 --> 00:54:53,040
not mean to use Chiron that 
much. 

883
00:54:53,040 --> 00:54:56,480
Every night I don't mean to eat 
as much dessert as I do. 

884
00:54:57,560 --> 00:54:59,600
And every night I say the same 
thing. 

885
00:54:59,600 --> 00:55:01,640
And so. 
I'm going on a diet tomorrow. 

886
00:55:02,520 --> 00:55:05,080
Yeah, exactly. 
So I'll, I'll believe it when I 

887
00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:08,120
see it. 
So what I'm saying Kyron is not 

888
00:55:08,120 --> 00:55:11,320
a guy that I want to like, try 
and get out ahead of the market 

889
00:55:11,320 --> 00:55:14,000
and sell him at his peak or 
something in a redraft league 

890
00:55:14,000 --> 00:55:16,720
right now. 
Like I I think you just ride it 

891
00:55:16,720 --> 00:55:20,040
till the wheels fall off. 
If you're going to get this 

892
00:55:20,040 --> 00:55:24,520
role, you, you just you play it,
you know, right. 

893
00:55:25,360 --> 00:55:28,240
Other other roles that I thought
were worth mentioning. 

894
00:55:29,280 --> 00:55:33,160
James Cook, Really solid role. 
It would have been incredible if

895
00:55:33,160 --> 00:55:36,080
Josh Allen didn't eat all the 
touchdowns for himself. 

896
00:55:38,960 --> 00:55:41,320
Travis ETN, you know. 
Still made, do you think? 

897
00:55:41,360 --> 00:55:45,160
Do you think and Josh, Josh 
Allen getting all the touchdowns

898
00:55:45,160 --> 00:55:49,400
is kind of like that's kind of a
feature though, where yeah, yes.

899
00:55:49,600 --> 00:55:52,000
Or touchdowns for Dome? 
Yeah, no, it is. 

900
00:55:52,000 --> 00:55:57,120
It's the the James Cook usage 
and the way that the game played

901
00:55:57,120 --> 00:56:00,360
out for the Bills. 
It was both encouraging in that 

902
00:56:00,360 --> 00:56:03,200
James Cook looked really good. 
He got a lot of the work. 

903
00:56:04,600 --> 00:56:08,760
And it was also very concerning 
where it's like, am I really 

904
00:56:08,760 --> 00:56:13,040
about to watch this guy who I 
mean, if he just got a normal, 

905
00:56:13,040 --> 00:56:16,560
if he had any quarterback other 
than Josh Allen and pretend that

906
00:56:16,560 --> 00:56:20,640
magically didn't negatively 
impact the offense, he'd be a 

907
00:56:20,640 --> 00:56:25,120
top, you know, you know, 
probably top six top 7 running 

908
00:56:25,120 --> 00:56:29,080
back in the league, you know, if
he's getting the touchdowns for 

909
00:56:29,080 --> 00:56:32,000
fantasy. 
But I'm I'm definitely worried 

910
00:56:32,000 --> 00:56:34,560
that, like you said, it's a 
feature, not a bug. 

911
00:56:35,000 --> 00:56:39,960
So just looking at looking at 
the data here, I took another 

912
00:56:39,960 --> 00:56:51,760
look and so he he had 4.4 
expected touchdown or sorry 4.4 

913
00:56:51,760 --> 00:56:54,840
expected points from touchdown. 
So like 2/3 of an expected 

914
00:56:54,840 --> 00:56:57,360
touchdown and and he didn't get 
it. 

915
00:56:58,120 --> 00:57:02,280
And so I think that that that's 
at least when you're when you're

916
00:57:02,280 --> 00:57:08,160
considering it as like a small, 
small statistic, small number 

917
00:57:08,160 --> 00:57:12,680
statistic where like at least at
least you're getting some 

918
00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:17,280
touchdown equity there. 
It's not like last year where it

919
00:57:17,280 --> 00:57:20,080
was like they'd so been Damien 
Harris or they so being. 

920
00:57:21,120 --> 00:57:23,160
With Tavius Murray, yeah. 
Yeah. 

921
00:57:23,520 --> 00:57:25,480
So at least he's getting usage 
there. 

922
00:57:25,880 --> 00:57:30,000
And I mean, if he continues to 
not convert, then you're then 

923
00:57:30,000 --> 00:57:35,320
you're highly concerned. 
But Adam, I guess 16 1/2 

924
00:57:35,320 --> 00:57:38,360
expected points, a game that's 
like that feels that feels 

925
00:57:38,360 --> 00:57:41,000
solid, especially for where he 
was going. 

926
00:57:42,160 --> 00:57:46,960
Yeah, to me that I kind of am 
reading this as a spot that I 

927
00:57:46,960 --> 00:57:50,120
might want to attack before 
other people see it because he 

928
00:57:50,120 --> 00:57:54,800
was able to stay relatively 
under the radar in fantasy and 

929
00:57:54,800 --> 00:57:57,600
have a huge game, right? 
People don't, you know, you're 

930
00:57:57,600 --> 00:57:59,560
not going to see it in the box 
score that he put up some 

931
00:57:59,560 --> 00:58:02,720
monster fantasy week. 
His match up next week is the 

932
00:58:02,720 --> 00:58:07,400
Texans, which they've got a 
pretty good rush defense, so I 

933
00:58:07,400 --> 00:58:09,400
don't know if that's the 
greatest spot to attack. 

934
00:58:09,680 --> 00:58:13,400
I also don't know if it matters 
all that much for James Cook 

935
00:58:14,240 --> 00:58:16,960
'cause he can, you know, he's 
he's gonna be active in all 

936
00:58:16,960 --> 00:58:19,720
phases of the game. 
He can beat you in the passing 

937
00:58:19,720 --> 00:58:23,240
game and in the rushing game. 
And I, I think the Bills should 

938
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:26,000
be able to hang with the Texans 
and, and score some points. 

939
00:58:26,000 --> 00:58:28,320
So, oh, no, I'm sorry, that's 
week five. 

940
00:58:28,360 --> 00:58:30,720
I was, I was all the way down 
where we're playing Bonex. 

941
00:58:31,280 --> 00:58:34,240
I lied. 
It's the Dolphins. 

942
00:58:34,240 --> 00:58:39,320
So, yeah, I mean, that could 
that could certainly be a fun, 

943
00:58:40,320 --> 00:58:42,600
fun shoot out here on this 
Thursday night. 

944
00:58:42,840 --> 00:58:46,200
Maybe, maybe I'll be looking at 
trying to play a little more 

945
00:58:46,200 --> 00:58:51,280
James Cook and Showdown. 
Here, yeah, I'm just looking at 

946
00:58:52,600 --> 00:59:01,200
is if you're talking about he's 
not terribly expensive for a 

947
00:59:01,200 --> 00:59:06,280
slate where there's only there's
only four starting running backs

948
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:08,360
and he is the third running 
back. 

949
00:59:08,360 --> 00:59:13,280
He goes after Joe Mixon after a 
Chan who might not even play and

950
00:59:13,280 --> 00:59:17,040
then in between Nico and Steph 
Diggs. 

951
00:59:18,000 --> 00:59:20,480
So like that that that's 
something where you could you 

952
00:59:20,480 --> 00:59:25,680
could certainly get something 
where he he completely ad 

953
00:59:25,680 --> 00:59:32,480
scores, mixing a Chan and swift.
That feels like something where 

954
00:59:32,480 --> 00:59:35,000
you could you could get 
something, you could get a big 

955
00:59:35,000 --> 00:59:39,640
hit. 
Yeah, other other roles I wanted

956
00:59:39,640 --> 00:59:41,200
to touch on before you go to the
next chart. 

957
00:59:41,680 --> 00:59:47,440
JK Dobbins look like the far 
superior running back man Gus 

958
00:59:47,440 --> 00:59:49,320
Edwards. 
We're gonna we're gonna rebrand 

959
00:59:49,320 --> 00:59:53,520
to Dust Edwards. 
It's I mean, I already thought 

960
00:59:53,520 --> 00:59:57,280
it was over for that guy last 
year and then he just managed 

961
00:59:57,280 --> 01:00:00,760
to, you know, by last man 
standing rules. 

962
01:00:00,760 --> 01:00:04,360
He he ate up a bunch of points 
on a really good Ravens offense 

963
01:00:05,000 --> 01:00:10,160
through just 1,000,001 
touchdowns, but he looks not 

964
01:00:10,160 --> 01:00:13,360
good. 
And JK Dobbins for a man with 

965
01:00:13,360 --> 01:00:17,520
only one leg looked pretty good.
The long speed was definitely 

966
01:00:17,520 --> 01:00:19,520
not there. 
He got caught from behind twice.

967
01:00:19,840 --> 01:00:25,160
I I think I made a joke in our. 
Our stat chasing chat that JK 

968
01:00:25,160 --> 01:00:28,000
Dobbins almost hit 15 miles an 
hour on his run. 

969
01:00:28,360 --> 01:00:31,720
I did sell him short though. 
I saw the GPS data had him over 

970
01:00:31,720 --> 01:00:34,640
19 miles an hour. 
Pretty good for a guy with. 

971
01:00:34,640 --> 01:00:39,440
Only one and I, I think that 
the, the contextual thing there 

972
01:00:39,440 --> 01:00:45,120
was like 19 is actually kind of 
slow for a full Sprint chase in 

973
01:00:45,120 --> 01:00:48,600
the end zone. 
That's that's still like slower 

974
01:00:48,840 --> 01:00:55,720
than you'd want on long speed 
and but him like on like what 

975
01:00:55,720 --> 01:01:01,120
could be a pretty effective 
chargers rushing attack and he 

976
01:01:01,120 --> 01:01:06,600
can like especially at his price
and where he was going, you can 

977
01:01:06,600 --> 01:01:08,520
certainly get some effective 
days like this. 

978
01:01:08,840 --> 01:01:12,200
Yeah, you may not need the home 
run plays when the dude just 

979
01:01:12,200 --> 01:01:14,080
keeps hitting double s and 
triples right? 

980
01:01:15,280 --> 01:01:18,880
So I think Dobbins is a pretty 
clear buy. 

981
01:01:20,400 --> 01:01:23,160
You know, he was definitely a 
guy that I tried to adjust on in

982
01:01:23,160 --> 01:01:27,280
best ball after we after we knew
he was making the team, I 

983
01:01:27,280 --> 01:01:31,120
attacked him pretty heavily and 
stopped taking dust. 

984
01:01:31,120 --> 01:01:34,080
Edwards very much so. 
I'm glad I did that. 

985
01:01:34,080 --> 01:01:38,160
I wish I had been willing to buy
JK Dobbins earlier in the 

986
01:01:38,160 --> 01:01:40,920
offseason, but I don't think 
that was a big process mistake 

987
01:01:41,280 --> 01:01:43,000
given that he was coming off the
Achilles. 

988
01:01:43,760 --> 01:01:45,280
And they're playing the Panthers
this week. 

989
01:01:46,320 --> 01:01:48,720
Oh my gosh, yeah. 
That wow. 

990
01:01:48,720 --> 01:01:51,360
I mean, it's it's a little 
unfortunate that he nukes so 

991
01:01:51,360 --> 01:01:54,440
hard in Week 1 because I feel 
like people are just going to, 

992
01:01:54,560 --> 01:01:56,560
you know, you're going to look 
at the box score and then you're

993
01:01:56,600 --> 01:01:58,040
going to see the Panthers match 
up. 

994
01:01:58,880 --> 01:02:02,120
I mean, he's a he's an early 
candidate for a huge steam, 

995
01:02:02,240 --> 01:02:04,000
right? 
Like he's got to come in super 

996
01:02:04,000 --> 01:02:06,760
chalky this week. 
Right, right. 

997
01:02:06,760 --> 01:02:10,600
He he, he'll, he'll be popular 
and just looking at a dog bowl 

998
01:02:10,600 --> 01:02:18,600
stuff there, he's ADP of 29.6, 
which looks like a, a decent 

999
01:02:18,600 --> 01:02:23,200
amount of cheaper running backs,
but that, that, that certainly 

1000
01:02:23,200 --> 01:02:26,600
looks interesting. 
OK, you want the the really way 

1001
01:02:26,600 --> 01:02:30,840
too early DFS slate alpha here. 
So the Chargers are a 10:00 

1002
01:02:30,840 --> 01:02:33,320
game. 
I'm assuming Dobbins is going to

1003
01:02:33,320 --> 01:02:36,080
get Steam to high heavens. 
I haven't looked at salaries at 

1004
01:02:36,080 --> 01:02:38,960
all yet, but I I assume he's 
going to come in with some 

1005
01:02:38,960 --> 01:02:44,120
decent ownership. 
You play the Chargers budding 

1006
01:02:44,120 --> 01:02:50,000
wide receiver, one Lad Mcconkey 
and get the leverage off of JK 

1007
01:02:50,000 --> 01:02:53,480
Dobbins and you do it in the 
morning game so you have the 

1008
01:02:53,480 --> 01:02:57,160
information to know if you can 
just jam the chalk after Lad 

1009
01:02:57,560 --> 01:03:00,240
goes. 
You know. 13 receptions for 112 

1010
01:03:00,240 --> 01:03:04,160
yards and a touchdown for you in
a vintage Keenan Allen esque 

1011
01:03:04,160 --> 01:03:10,280
performance. 
That I, I just just to be clear,

1012
01:03:10,400 --> 01:03:13,840
we you're assuming the high 
ownership based on based on the 

1013
01:03:13,840 --> 01:03:17,960
usage, based on the matchup. 
Yeah, based on the usage, box 

1014
01:03:17,960 --> 01:03:19,840
score and the matchup this week,
yeah. 

1015
01:03:21,160 --> 01:03:25,120
But that that it is, it's 
contingent on high, on very 

1016
01:03:25,120 --> 01:03:27,000
chunky high ownership. 
Yes, yeah. 

1017
01:03:29,160 --> 01:03:32,720
Any other role. 
Oh, David Montgomery, Jameer 

1018
01:03:32,720 --> 01:03:37,840
Gibbs, they just. 
So the slightly annoying thing 

1019
01:03:37,840 --> 01:03:40,400
for Gibbs is Montgomery's still 
going to be super involved. 

1020
01:03:40,400 --> 01:03:44,400
It looks like just like last 
year, a big part of the bet on 

1021
01:03:44,400 --> 01:03:47,280
Shabir Gibbs was that you hoped 
that he would take more of the 

1022
01:03:47,280 --> 01:03:48,880
work for Montgomery as the 
season goes. 

1023
01:03:48,880 --> 01:03:52,000
He's just, you know, it's 
undeniable that he's the more 

1024
01:03:52,000 --> 01:03:53,920
explosive back they got to get 
him on the field. 

1025
01:03:54,520 --> 01:03:58,160
I, I think that if you ask 
Detroit right now, like how they

1026
01:03:58,400 --> 01:04:03,160
envision the running back 
workload being in Week 17, they 

1027
01:04:03,160 --> 01:04:05,920
would tell you just like we had 
it, like that was what we want 

1028
01:04:05,920 --> 01:04:08,600
to do, like we've got the 
lighting. 

1029
01:04:08,760 --> 01:04:10,720
Well, I mean. 
It looks like you're what you're

1030
01:04:10,720 --> 01:04:16,280
getting here is you're getting a
close to and and and the the 

1031
01:04:16,280 --> 01:04:21,200
expected points of on rushing 
might be skewed here because 

1032
01:04:21,360 --> 01:04:23,240
Montgomery did get a lot more 
carries. 

1033
01:04:23,840 --> 01:04:28,280
Gibbs had pretty close in in 
terms of expected rushing 

1034
01:04:28,280 --> 01:04:33,240
points, but then he ran a ton 
more routes like he is he is 

1035
01:04:33,240 --> 01:04:36,320
going to get all of the, he is 
probably going to get all of the

1036
01:04:36,320 --> 01:04:42,120
receiving stuff and then maybe 
40% of the rushing. 

1037
01:04:43,800 --> 01:04:47,360
Yeah, he, I mean, there's a 
reason Gibbs went much earlier 

1038
01:04:47,360 --> 01:04:50,040
in drafts, right? 
It's because he's going to 

1039
01:04:50,200 --> 01:04:52,800
monopolize a lot of those high 
value touches. 

1040
01:04:53,560 --> 01:04:56,000
But David Montgomery is 
definitely not going to be 

1041
01:04:56,000 --> 01:05:01,160
without high value touches. 
So I think Montgomery was man, 

1042
01:05:01,480 --> 01:05:04,600
the, the more I think about it, 
Montgomery was such a good click

1043
01:05:04,600 --> 01:05:08,000
because the contingent value is 
so incredible. 

1044
01:05:08,160 --> 01:05:11,920
If Jameer Gibbs is down, pretend
that we knew Jameer Gibbs is 

1045
01:05:11,920 --> 01:05:13,840
missing the rest of the season. 
Where? 

1046
01:05:13,880 --> 01:05:15,920
Where would you draft David 
Montgomery then? 

1047
01:05:16,720 --> 01:05:23,000
You were asking the wrong guy. 
I want to say. 

1048
01:05:23,440 --> 01:05:28,920
I want to say he, he, he's still
in the the Josh Jacobs. 

1049
01:05:28,960 --> 01:05:34,440
I'm like he's probably, probably
Josh Jacobs ish like for fifth 

1050
01:05:34,480 --> 01:05:38,480
round. 
I'm I'm like 2-3 turn because 

1051
01:05:38,480 --> 01:05:43,520
that the lions will give the 
running back 30 carries in a 

1052
01:05:43,520 --> 01:05:46,480
game like they don't care and 
they'll use him in the passing 

1053
01:05:46,480 --> 01:05:48,440
game. 
When Gibbs was out last year, he

1054
01:05:48,440 --> 01:05:50,280
was pretty involved as a 
receiver. 

1055
01:05:50,280 --> 01:05:54,680
Like he's he's a very capable do
it all back and he's a high 

1056
01:05:54,680 --> 01:05:57,320
success rate guy running behind 
the best offensive line in 

1057
01:05:57,320 --> 01:06:00,600
football. 
Like I I think that the market 

1058
01:06:00,640 --> 01:06:05,560
majorly mispriced Montgomery. 
I mean, I guess is the lot not 

1059
01:06:05,560 --> 01:06:10,240
true for Josh Jacobs. 
I don't think that Josh Jacobs 

1060
01:06:10,240 --> 01:06:12,760
is as good as Steven Montgomery 
and I don't think the line he's 

1061
01:06:12,760 --> 01:06:15,480
running behind is anywhere near 
as good as the Lions. 

1062
01:06:15,480 --> 01:06:19,240
Like the the Lions offensive 
line is like elite elite. 

1063
01:06:19,240 --> 01:06:24,120
They're like two years ago or 
three years ago Browns when Nick

1064
01:06:24,120 --> 01:06:28,240
Chubb was just like absolutely 
melting faces or like 3 years 

1065
01:06:28,240 --> 01:06:32,560
ago Titans when Derrick Henry 
was just absolutely stomping a 

1066
01:06:32,560 --> 01:06:36,880
mud hole through teams like the 
Lions offensive line is insane. 

1067
01:06:37,560 --> 01:06:42,440
They're they look really good 
like that, that overtime drive 

1068
01:06:42,640 --> 01:06:45,920
when they were just like, by the
way, we'd like to win the game 

1069
01:06:45,920 --> 01:06:49,320
now we're going to run down your
throat was pretty. 

1070
01:06:49,600 --> 01:06:52,000
I mean, that was pretty 
convincing to me. 

1071
01:06:52,640 --> 01:06:56,320
It's like, Oh yeah, we can just 
exert our will on you if we'd 

1072
01:06:56,320 --> 01:06:59,120
like to do that and we would we 
choose to do so right now. 

1073
01:06:59,160 --> 01:07:10,040
Thank you very much. 
I still, I still think I'm like 

1074
01:07:10,040 --> 01:07:12,520
I prefaced with I'm a David 
Montgomery hater. 

1075
01:07:12,840 --> 01:07:19,560
And but how would I guess the 
question would be knowing what 

1076
01:07:19,560 --> 01:07:22,320
we know today, what, what is 
there a way to play that? 

1077
01:07:22,880 --> 01:07:26,880
Or is it just like if we get a 
week where we know Gibbs is out,

1078
01:07:27,400 --> 01:07:31,680
even if Montgomery is chalky and
you think he's he's likely on 

1079
01:07:31,680 --> 01:07:34,880
their own still? 
I think the easiest way to play 

1080
01:07:34,880 --> 01:07:37,440
it in like the format that I 
could think of where it would be

1081
01:07:37,440 --> 01:07:41,200
the easiest is in like dog bowl 
drafts. 

1082
01:07:41,640 --> 01:07:45,200
If you end up where Gibbs is 
drafted 100% of the time and 

1083
01:07:45,200 --> 01:07:51,200
Montgomery is not drafted, I I 
think that there will be way 

1084
01:07:51,200 --> 01:07:55,440
more weeks this year where 
Montgomery and Gibbs score 

1085
01:07:55,440 --> 01:07:57,000
within a few points of each 
other. 

1086
01:07:57,240 --> 01:08:00,160
Then there will be where one 
gaps the other substantially. 

1087
01:08:01,080 --> 01:08:04,080
And so I think that you. 
You need you. 

1088
01:08:04,160 --> 01:08:07,680
You need to get the week where 
Montgomery just gaps. 

1089
01:08:08,200 --> 01:08:10,800
Right, You need, you need the 
you're you're praying for the 

1090
01:08:10,800 --> 01:08:13,720
touchdown variance where 
Montgomery ends up being the guy

1091
01:08:13,720 --> 01:08:16,640
that gets the goal line carries,
whether it's because Gibbs. 

1092
01:08:16,640 --> 01:08:19,160
Breaks off a random goal like. 
Gibbs. 

1093
01:08:19,359 --> 01:08:23,200
Gibbs runs a 60 yard run, gets 
taken down at the two and he's 

1094
01:08:23,200 --> 01:08:26,240
gassed and Montgomery taps in 
and steals the touchdown. 

1095
01:08:26,240 --> 01:08:31,439
You know which I you know, the 
Lions sure do like their David 

1096
01:08:31,439 --> 01:08:34,640
Montgomery runs from from short 
yardage now they did they didn't

1097
01:08:34,640 --> 01:08:36,600
take Gibbs off the field in 
short yardage stuff. 

1098
01:08:36,600 --> 01:08:40,080
So like it's it's very the 
market wasn't wrong in that 

1099
01:08:40,080 --> 01:08:43,120
Gibbs should be going early. 
He definitely should have gone 

1100
01:08:43,200 --> 01:08:46,640
where he was going. 
I just think that we might have 

1101
01:08:46,640 --> 01:08:51,479
been not fully factoring in how 
incredible a contingent value 

1102
01:08:51,479 --> 01:08:55,359
was for David Montgomery because
he he's going to pay off his tag

1103
01:08:55,479 --> 01:09:00,080
with no contingency needed. 
You know, like he's going to be 

1104
01:09:00,080 --> 01:09:04,279
just fine for where he was going
in drafts without anything bad 

1105
01:09:04,279 --> 01:09:07,399
happening to Gibbs. 
And then you get the absolute 

1106
01:09:07,399 --> 01:09:09,880
league winning upside if Gibbs 
goes down. 

1107
01:09:09,880 --> 01:09:14,319
So that's that. 
That was really all I I wanted 

1108
01:09:14,319 --> 01:09:19,359
to. 
OK, sounds like, sounds like I I

1109
01:09:19,359 --> 01:09:21,600
got us talking more on that 
David Montgomery. 

1110
01:09:24,000 --> 01:09:26,439
Anyone else that you wanted to 
touch on on this? 

1111
01:09:28,080 --> 01:09:30,880
The other piece here that's 
worth noting and I don't think 

1112
01:09:30,880 --> 01:09:34,359
this is a surprise anyone who 
watched the game, Pacheco still 

1113
01:09:34,359 --> 01:09:39,880
very much up here in the in in 
the bell cow section of the 

1114
01:09:39,880 --> 01:09:44,240
chart. 
And then we see that P Ryan 

1115
01:09:44,240 --> 01:09:45,760
didn't actually even make the 
chart. 

1116
01:09:46,920 --> 01:09:51,040
And so that that that's one 
where you have a bias to like, 

1117
01:09:51,040 --> 01:09:53,439
well, he did just join the team 
a week before. 

1118
01:09:53,960 --> 01:09:58,640
And, and it's interesting that 
he like, he still had, I think 

1119
01:09:59,840 --> 01:10:03,720
he still had like 8 routes. 
P Ryan still had eight routes 

1120
01:10:04,000 --> 01:10:06,320
where when he has actually a 
chance to learn the playbook, 

1121
01:10:06,880 --> 01:10:13,080
then then he will he should cut 
into Kyron's stuff more. 

1122
01:10:13,840 --> 01:10:16,920
And but it's still something 
that's interesting that they 

1123
01:10:16,920 --> 01:10:23,800
were still perfectly happy to 
give what get Pacheco something 

1124
01:10:23,800 --> 01:10:28,040
along the lines of 80% of snaps 
in like a pretty crucial game 

1125
01:10:28,040 --> 01:10:31,880
for them. 
Yeah, I mean, Pacheco to me 

1126
01:10:31,880 --> 01:10:35,720
reads like one of the he's the 
classic dead zone back where 

1127
01:10:35,720 --> 01:10:37,480
he's gonna get a lot of the 
work. 

1128
01:10:37,480 --> 01:10:42,960
I think we see his role shrink a
little bit as you get P Ryan 

1129
01:10:42,960 --> 01:10:48,280
more integrated with the team. 
To me watching, watching that 

1130
01:10:48,280 --> 01:10:52,000
Chiefs game and not having a ton
of Pacheco, I felt fantastic 

1131
01:10:52,000 --> 01:10:54,320
about that. 
Because I'm, I'm sitting there 

1132
01:10:54,400 --> 01:10:57,640
thinking like, there's just no 
way that this guy buries me. 

1133
01:10:57,680 --> 01:11:01,160
Like he could be a neutral 
advance rate pick, which is 

1134
01:11:01,160 --> 01:11:03,560
fine. 
I just, I don't see a way where 

1135
01:11:03,560 --> 01:11:06,720
he's like doubling up on 
expected advance rate or 

1136
01:11:06,720 --> 01:11:09,920
anything like that, right? 
Yeah, especially at the two tree

1137
01:11:09,920 --> 01:11:13,960
turn. 
Yeah, it's so that that was a 

1138
01:11:14,120 --> 01:11:17,520
you know, the Pacheco faders can
breathe a sigh of relief because

1139
01:11:17,560 --> 01:11:22,160
I I think that we saw his role 
at its absolute peak and it it's

1140
01:11:22,160 --> 01:11:25,560
yeah, only going to diminish a 
little not and I'm not saying 

1141
01:11:25,680 --> 01:11:29,440
like he's going to lose 40% of 
snaps to P Ryan, but like. 

1142
01:11:29,960 --> 01:11:31,440
The risk is to the downside 
there. 

1143
01:11:31,920 --> 01:11:34,880
Yeah, and if P Ryan just does 
what he did last year on the 

1144
01:11:34,880 --> 01:11:38,720
Broncos, like right he was. 
It's not like P Ryan was a a 

1145
01:11:38,720 --> 01:11:42,400
world beater for fantasy, but he
sure sucked a lot of the life 

1146
01:11:42,400 --> 01:11:45,000
out of the backfield. 
Like you were really upset that 

1147
01:11:45,000 --> 01:11:47,960
P Ryan was taking those three to
eight points a week. 

1148
01:11:48,000 --> 01:11:51,520
You know that was you would love
those to go to the running back 

1149
01:11:51,520 --> 01:11:54,080
that you're. 
I think I think that's a pretty 

1150
01:11:54,120 --> 01:11:58,520
fairway to put it where Pacheco,
a lot of the a lot of what we're

1151
01:11:58,520 --> 01:12:02,080
seeing on this chart here was 
priced in this offseason. 

1152
01:12:02,720 --> 01:12:06,840
It looks like it's still priced 
in in dog bowl stuff. 

1153
01:12:08,760 --> 01:12:12,200
And when you we're pretty 
confident. 

1154
01:12:12,200 --> 01:12:16,000
We don't know how much P Ryan 
puts in, but we're pretty 

1155
01:12:16,000 --> 01:12:19,280
confident he does cut in. 
And so you know, there's 

1156
01:12:19,280 --> 01:12:22,000
downside there. 
You just like, you don't know 

1157
01:12:22,000 --> 01:12:26,920
how much and that's like, that's
kind of like the asymmetric 

1158
01:12:26,920 --> 01:12:30,000
downside, like textbook 
asymmetric downside. 

1159
01:12:30,000 --> 01:12:31,920
Yep. 
Yeah, very well put. 

1160
01:12:33,960 --> 01:12:37,480
Anyone else or should we move on
to the backups running back 

1161
01:12:37,480 --> 01:12:42,200
chart? 
And yeah, I think I, I, I think 

1162
01:12:42,200 --> 01:12:49,320
we can, we can move on here. 
Man, there were a couple guys 

1163
01:12:49,560 --> 01:12:52,240
that showed up on this chart 
that were a little surprising to

1164
01:12:52,240 --> 01:12:56,280
me. 
I mean, Jovante was one that was

1165
01:12:57,400 --> 01:12:59,080
almost the most surprising to 
me. 

1166
01:12:59,080 --> 01:13:02,760
I mean, I, I fully expected Sean
Payton to use a split backfield.

1167
01:13:03,400 --> 01:13:06,880
I just really thought that 
Javante would get more I, I, I 

1168
01:13:06,880 --> 01:13:09,560
really thought he would be 
closer to like a 60% guy. 

1169
01:13:11,720 --> 01:13:14,080
So that was that was surprising 
to me. 

1170
01:13:15,640 --> 01:13:18,920
I mean, Jaleel was really, he's 
like already nipping at his 

1171
01:13:18,920 --> 01:13:23,040
heels for for snaps and they 
involved estimate in the first 

1172
01:13:23,040 --> 01:13:24,560
game. 
Now, granted estimate put the 

1173
01:13:24,560 --> 01:13:27,040
ball on the ground like he, he 
definitely looked like he was 

1174
01:13:27,040 --> 01:13:33,360
trying to get into the doghouse.
But I I mean I, I think. 

1175
01:13:33,600 --> 01:13:36,240
He's only he's on the field less
than half the snaps. 

1176
01:13:36,600 --> 01:13:40,840
Yeah. 
He has a plurality on a on on 

1177
01:13:40,840 --> 01:13:45,120
the snap share, but it's a he 
does not have a majority. 

1178
01:13:45,600 --> 01:13:50,240
And so I think it's, it's a bit 
interesting and that normal 

1179
01:13:50,240 --> 01:13:54,520
ordinarily it's high expected 
points for the Broncos 

1180
01:13:54,520 --> 01:13:57,960
backfield. 
And you had a week where the 

1181
01:13:57,960 --> 01:14:01,080
Broncos just were way under 
their expected points. 

1182
01:14:01,080 --> 01:14:03,120
And it'll be just because they 
played bad. 

1183
01:14:04,080 --> 01:14:09,280
And but if you look at some of 
the stuff like and Jaleel had 

1184
01:14:09,400 --> 01:14:14,800
actually, despite, despite being
on the field less, he had 11.6 

1185
01:14:14,800 --> 01:14:18,200
expected points and because he 
had the passing yardage, the 

1186
01:14:18,200 --> 01:14:25,080
passing stuff that am, I mean, 
maybe maybe it's one of those 

1187
01:14:25,080 --> 01:14:27,240
things where it's like a 
backfield where they're going to

1188
01:14:27,240 --> 01:14:30,720
ping pong. 
Like if and who knows if you get

1189
01:14:30,720 --> 01:14:33,080
a week where the Broncos play 
well. 

1190
01:14:33,480 --> 01:14:36,320
And like they did, they did even
with Russell Wilson last year, 

1191
01:14:36,320 --> 01:14:38,680
they had weeks where they were 
rolling. 

1192
01:14:38,920 --> 01:14:42,480
So I think I don't want to 
overreact and say they're not 

1193
01:14:42,480 --> 01:14:45,200
going to be in any positive game
scripts. 

1194
01:14:45,720 --> 01:14:51,360
You you should get more Devante 
there and unless Julio, but this

1195
01:14:51,360 --> 01:14:55,280
could this could really easily 
open up to be like something 

1196
01:14:55,280 --> 01:14:59,000
like a 40404020 by the end of 
the year. 

1197
01:14:59,800 --> 01:15:02,840
Yeah. 
So you need a really, really 

1198
01:15:02,840 --> 01:15:08,000
high amount of expected points 
from, from running backs and 

1199
01:15:08,600 --> 01:15:11,200
you're not at, you're not there.
You. 

1200
01:15:11,360 --> 01:15:13,840
Oh, you weren't there this week.
Yeah. 

1201
01:15:13,840 --> 01:15:16,200
And if you if you look at the 
snaps that are useful for 

1202
01:15:16,200 --> 01:15:20,800
fantasy for these guys, Javonte 
had 38% useful snaps for fantasy

1203
01:15:20,800 --> 01:15:23,880
that's rush attempts and routes 
and Jaleel had 33. 

1204
01:15:24,400 --> 01:15:28,040
So it's it's really just, you 
know, a couple plays difference 

1205
01:15:28,040 --> 01:15:32,880
for these guys so. 
And like just 20 expected points

1206
01:15:32,880 --> 01:15:34,600
for the for the entire 
backfield. 

1207
01:15:35,000 --> 01:15:36,800
Yeah, I think I. 
Think that isn't what we were 

1208
01:15:36,800 --> 01:15:39,040
promised? 
Yeah, better, better days are 

1209
01:15:39,040 --> 01:15:44,000
coming. 
Another guy who had decent 

1210
01:15:44,000 --> 01:15:47,880
expected points here. 
This, this is like the 

1211
01:15:48,080 --> 01:15:52,920
prototypical 0RB Band-Aid. 
This is like what you do when 

1212
01:15:52,920 --> 01:15:55,880
you're running backroom is just 
not scoring any points and 

1213
01:15:55,880 --> 01:15:58,760
you're panicking while you're 
waiting for Jonathan Brooks to 

1214
01:15:58,760 --> 01:16:02,560
come back to the Panthers so he 
can score no points for that 

1215
01:16:02,560 --> 01:16:06,320
putrid offense. 
But Justice Hill looks like he 

1216
01:16:06,320 --> 01:16:08,680
is going to be very involved. 
He played more snaps than 

1217
01:16:08,680 --> 01:16:13,800
Derrick Henry like and he's 
very, very involved as a pass 

1218
01:16:13,800 --> 01:16:18,280
catcher for them is I I love his
little bar here where he has 

1219
01:16:18,320 --> 01:16:22,280
just one rushing attempt and 
then he's got all the routes. 

1220
01:16:23,280 --> 01:16:24,920
So he's getting all the high 
value touches. 

1221
01:16:24,920 --> 01:16:27,920
Now part of that is the game 
script that the Ravens were in 

1222
01:16:27,920 --> 01:16:30,680
where they were behind. 
They had to throw a ton and 70% 

1223
01:16:30,680 --> 01:16:36,000
pass plays. 
But I think and and the the nice

1224
01:16:36,000 --> 01:16:39,720
thing about Justice Hill is that
we already saw last year, like 

1225
01:16:40,000 --> 01:16:42,880
what does the nut nut outcome 
look like for Justice Hill? 

1226
01:16:43,080 --> 01:16:47,600
We got that scenario wise, we 
got that scenario last year and 

1227
01:16:47,600 --> 01:16:51,160
he never really turns into 
anything extraordinary for 

1228
01:16:51,160 --> 01:16:52,960
fantasy. 
So you're kind of capped on the 

1229
01:16:52,960 --> 01:16:56,080
ceiling. 
The Ravens will not and just so 

1230
01:16:56,080 --> 01:16:59,160
cannot handle like a enormous 
workload. 

1231
01:16:59,160 --> 01:17:00,760
That's just not going to happen 
for you. 

1232
01:17:01,680 --> 01:17:06,640
But he can go out there and be 
just a, you know, he's an 

1233
01:17:06,640 --> 01:17:08,720
innings eater for you. 
He can go out there and get you 

1234
01:17:08,720 --> 01:17:12,080
6 to 8 fantasy points in a week 
so you're not just hemorrhaging 

1235
01:17:12,080 --> 01:17:15,840
points at your RV two spot. 
So he's definitely an 

1236
01:17:15,840 --> 01:17:18,760
interesting one if you're really
down bad for running back. 

1237
01:17:18,760 --> 01:17:22,680
By the way, so I I'm just now 
noticing I was, I was so I was 

1238
01:17:22,680 --> 01:17:25,240
in the weed and all the stats 
and that we got a couple of 

1239
01:17:25,240 --> 01:17:27,360
comments saying that I'm not 
loud. 

1240
01:17:27,920 --> 01:17:29,400
Are you having any issues 
hearing me? 

1241
01:17:30,360 --> 01:17:33,320
You you sound good now, but if 
anyone in the chat is still 

1242
01:17:33,320 --> 01:17:36,720
having trouble hearing Draco, 
just let us know. 

1243
01:17:38,280 --> 01:17:41,880
Yeah, I appreciate those 
comments and apologies I have. 

1244
01:17:41,920 --> 01:17:47,800
I didn't see them sooner. 
But yeah, we just tell solid 

1245
01:17:47,800 --> 01:17:56,920
innings eater Zeke Elliott was. 
OK, funny I I was, I was reading

1246
01:17:56,920 --> 01:18:00,840
those comments because Nick in 
the private chat said I should 

1247
01:18:00,840 --> 01:18:04,000
read those comments and I missed
who you're talking about. 

1248
01:18:04,320 --> 01:18:07,160
And then I heard six to eight 
points every week, and I'm like,

1249
01:18:07,160 --> 01:18:08,360
he's talking about justice 
sales. 

1250
01:18:09,520 --> 01:18:13,160
We, we had talked about this 
when doing basketball rankings 

1251
01:18:13,160 --> 01:18:16,360
this summer of if there was a 
player that you knew was 

1252
01:18:16,360 --> 01:18:20,520
guaranteed for eight and exactly
eight points every week, where 

1253
01:18:20,520 --> 01:18:24,360
would you draft him? 
And we joked about how just, 

1254
01:18:24,360 --> 01:18:25,640
well, what are you talking 
about? 

1255
01:18:25,640 --> 01:18:29,400
That's just Justice Hill. 
And sure enough, week 1 comes 

1256
01:18:29,680 --> 01:18:34,360
and my God, that's Justice Hill.
So the the ceiling is. 

1257
01:18:34,440 --> 01:18:37,480
Just just to I think it's an 
important note, though, he's 

1258
01:18:37,480 --> 01:18:41,360
like a disproportionate 
beneficiary of a negative game 

1259
01:18:41,360 --> 01:18:44,560
script for the Ravens. 
Yeah, like, absolutely. 

1260
01:18:45,480 --> 01:18:47,760
They're not. 
He's not going to get, he's not 

1261
01:18:47,760 --> 01:18:50,680
going to get this type of 
snapshare in most weeks. 

1262
01:18:51,200 --> 01:18:55,720
It's probably going to be in the
30% range. 

1263
01:18:56,360 --> 01:19:02,720
But he is a trusted back for 
them and that is helpful like 

1264
01:19:02,880 --> 01:19:08,640
having those like late round 
veterans who can fill in your at

1265
01:19:08,640 --> 01:19:12,760
your points while that your 
rookies are in healthy scratches

1266
01:19:13,600 --> 01:19:18,160
is valuable. 
Yeah, Zeke Elliott, another guy 

1267
01:19:18,160 --> 01:19:21,400
that people were using to kind 
of be that innings eater early 

1268
01:19:21,400 --> 01:19:25,800
on and in Week 1. 
I mean, it was going to be not 

1269
01:19:25,800 --> 01:19:29,760
pretty, but it got salvage with 
a rushing touchdown. 

1270
01:19:30,560 --> 01:19:34,960
Do you think that Zeke is the 
kind of back you can be using to

1271
01:19:35,000 --> 01:19:37,600
kind of plug a roster hole while
you're waiting for something 

1272
01:19:37,600 --> 01:19:40,160
better to happen or? 
Yeah, he is. 

1273
01:19:40,640 --> 01:19:47,000
And if, if you've already 
drafted him, I'm sorry, but This

1274
01:19:47,000 --> 01:19:50,720
is why you drafted them early 
season points while while you're

1275
01:19:50,720 --> 01:19:53,440
waiting for your, your younger 
guys to come on. 

1276
01:19:53,960 --> 01:19:56,760
Like I, I think it's, it's 
important that there's this big 

1277
01:19:56,760 --> 01:20:02,720
price discount between Zeke and 
them and justice where like 

1278
01:20:03,160 --> 01:20:04,720
you're kind of using them the 
same. 

1279
01:20:05,080 --> 01:20:09,160
And then one cost you pay, you 
pay premium brand for Zeke. 

1280
01:20:09,400 --> 01:20:12,040
Yeah, name, name brand, Innings 
either for Zeke. 

1281
01:20:12,720 --> 01:20:15,000
Right. 
But yeah, I I think that's 

1282
01:20:15,000 --> 01:20:20,760
pretty, pretty reasonable. 
OK, I've got I've got a fun one 

1283
01:20:20,760 --> 01:20:23,960
for you. 
Talk to me about Derrick Henry 

1284
01:20:23,960 --> 01:20:27,480
and why was he the worst click 
you could possibly have made 

1285
01:20:27,480 --> 01:20:32,560
during draft season? 
Yeah, and that's a it's a pretty

1286
01:20:32,600 --> 01:20:39,240
it's a pretty bad outcome for 
him in in week 1 where they they

1287
01:20:39,240 --> 01:20:42,600
did have the the negative game 
script and then they just 

1288
01:20:42,600 --> 01:20:47,200
clearly happy with Justice Hill 
on the passing downs a lot more.

1289
01:20:47,840 --> 01:20:51,680
And I think obviously week 1 is 
like that. 

1290
01:20:51,680 --> 01:20:54,560
That's probably the low 
Candlestick mark for him for 

1291
01:20:54,560 --> 01:20:57,640
Derrick Henry on the weeks where
they do have the positive game 

1292
01:20:57,640 --> 01:21:01,000
scripts. 
You're gonna you're you're gonna

1293
01:21:01,000 --> 01:21:06,760
get a very, very good goes 
Edwards Probably yes, yeah. 

1294
01:21:07,720 --> 01:21:13,200
And but the second round, third 
round stuff like when you think 

1295
01:21:13,200 --> 01:21:16,760
about what you need from the 
second and third round, you need

1296
01:21:16,760 --> 01:21:19,640
somebody that if they're not 
legendary season that they can 

1297
01:21:19,640 --> 01:21:23,560
threaten it. 
You are I I think you are 

1298
01:21:23,560 --> 01:21:26,200
getting the. 
Unfortunately, you're getting 

1299
01:21:26,200 --> 01:21:29,320
the true sort of dead zone 
profile here. 

1300
01:21:29,800 --> 01:21:31,160
You're Yeah, you're drawing down
the. 

1301
01:21:31,160 --> 01:21:34,480
Trip maybe not Profile You're 
getting the silent killer. 

1302
01:21:34,720 --> 01:21:37,280
The silent killer profile. 
Yeah, he can't. 

1303
01:21:37,520 --> 01:21:42,720
He's not going to be getting the
four targets per game Like he he

1304
01:21:42,800 --> 01:21:46,240
that's just not, he's not gonna 
be that involved with the 

1305
01:21:46,240 --> 01:21:49,480
passing game. 
And so then you're just, like 

1306
01:21:49,480 --> 01:21:52,080
you said, you're getting good 
Gus Edwards. 

1307
01:21:52,280 --> 01:21:54,560
Here's the problem with good Gus
Edwards, though. 

1308
01:21:54,920 --> 01:21:58,920
So much of the Gus Edwards value
came from rushing touchdowns. 

1309
01:21:59,320 --> 01:22:02,240
Like the extra yardage you're 
going to get from Henry because 

1310
01:22:02,240 --> 01:22:06,360
he's better than Gus Edwards is 
like, cool, I'm happy that I'm 

1311
01:22:06,360 --> 01:22:09,800
getting the extra yardage, but 
it's not worth the premium that 

1312
01:22:09,800 --> 01:22:12,840
you're having to pay for it 
because the touchdowns are more 

1313
01:22:12,840 --> 01:22:14,960
a function of the team than 
anything. 

1314
01:22:14,960 --> 01:22:16,920
Like the touchdowns are 
happening because the Ravens 

1315
01:22:16,920 --> 01:22:20,640
offense is good and and they're 
going to get you in scoring 

1316
01:22:20,640 --> 01:22:24,720
position and Derrick Henry, Gus 
Edwards, they're probably both 

1317
01:22:24,720 --> 01:22:27,640
punching in. 
Like if you maybe bet on one 

1318
01:22:27,640 --> 01:22:28,960
over the other. 
Absolutely. 

1319
01:22:28,960 --> 01:22:31,360
I'm taking Derrick Henry to 
punch in the the one yard 

1320
01:22:31,360 --> 01:22:33,440
rushing touchdown over Gus 
Edwards every time. 

1321
01:22:33,920 --> 01:22:35,560
But I. 
Let's put it. 

1322
01:22:35,560 --> 01:22:40,920
Let's put it another way. 
So this week Dog Bowl stuff, 

1323
01:22:41,240 --> 01:22:47,280
Kyron pick 14, Derrick Henry 
pick 15, Pacheco 15.7, Gibbs 

1324
01:22:47,280 --> 01:22:53,480
18.7 and Josh Jacobs 28.6 and so
and so on. 

1325
01:22:53,680 --> 01:22:58,840
The the types of backs that he's
going around like way you feel 

1326
01:22:58,840 --> 01:23:03,200
way, way better about betting on
a mega week from Chiron. 

1327
01:23:03,400 --> 01:23:08,640
Now granted he's like .7 picks 
higher and probably that'll 

1328
01:23:08,640 --> 01:23:11,920
probably diverge, but even 
Pacheco you'd rather you'd much 

1329
01:23:11,920 --> 01:23:14,240
rather Pacheco than there 
Derrick Henry. 

1330
01:23:15,440 --> 01:23:17,960
The the nice thing I can say 
about Henry this week is he's 

1331
01:23:17,960 --> 01:23:23,480
playing against the Raiders. 
But like I think rest of season,

1332
01:23:23,520 --> 01:23:27,320
if you made me pick, I would 
probably take David Montgomery 

1333
01:23:27,320 --> 01:23:29,960
over Derrick Henry straight up 
for the rest of the season. 

1334
01:23:30,240 --> 01:23:35,600
Total points. 
I, I, I think honestly as it is,

1335
01:23:35,600 --> 01:23:37,280
I think that's pretty 
reasonable. 

1336
01:23:37,600 --> 01:23:42,600
And but even even playing the 
Raiders like you're you're, 

1337
01:23:42,800 --> 01:23:46,120
you're hoping that it's Derrick 
Henry who gets those points 

1338
01:23:46,640 --> 01:23:47,800
right, Like. 
It can't be. 

1339
01:23:47,920 --> 01:23:49,120
It can't be Lamar. 
Yeah. 

1340
01:23:49,960 --> 01:23:52,800
And then they're up so much and 
they're like, Oh yeah, let's 

1341
01:23:52,840 --> 01:23:54,280
play this other guy. 
Right. 

1342
01:23:54,280 --> 01:23:56,840
Yeah, We now we don't. 
We don't need to put any load on

1343
01:23:56,840 --> 01:23:58,520
Derrick Henry. 
We're beating the brakes. 

1344
01:23:58,720 --> 01:24:02,200
Up give him 30 carries a game. 
Right, exactly. 

1345
01:24:02,200 --> 01:24:05,600
And so that's that's the 
concerning thing about Henry. 

1346
01:24:05,600 --> 01:24:08,840
I mean, if you're in a redraft 
league and you have Henry, the 

1347
01:24:08,840 --> 01:24:11,400
move is you wait till he's got 
to have a monster game. 

1348
01:24:11,480 --> 01:24:14,680
That what, what we're not saying
is we're not saying that Derrick

1349
01:24:14,680 --> 01:24:17,280
Henry's never going to score any
fantasy points ever again. 

1350
01:24:17,760 --> 01:24:21,400
But there, it's just going to be
few and far between when he has 

1351
01:24:21,400 --> 01:24:25,360
those absolutely nuclear games. 
And then what you're getting in 

1352
01:24:25,360 --> 01:24:29,080
between is you're just getting 
stuff that you, you could have 

1353
01:24:29,080 --> 01:24:33,040
gotten 6 rounds later, you know,
And so it's just really not, 

1354
01:24:33,240 --> 01:24:36,480
it's not worth it. 
And so you're waiting for a big 

1355
01:24:36,480 --> 01:24:38,240
game and you're trying to trade 
him. 

1356
01:24:38,400 --> 01:24:40,880
You're trying to, you know, get 
the vintage big dog game and 

1357
01:24:40,880 --> 01:24:49,160
then move him off. 
That one other guy here that I I

1358
01:24:49,160 --> 01:24:53,080
wanted to talk about Brian 
Robinson. 

1359
01:24:54,640 --> 01:24:58,880
You know, he he looked decent. 
Austin Eckler also looked pretty

1360
01:24:58,880 --> 01:25:03,360
good. 
I think really what you have 

1361
01:25:03,360 --> 01:25:07,840
here is if there were going to 
be players that you wanted to 

1362
01:25:07,840 --> 01:25:12,000
have on Washington outside of 
Jayden Daniels, it's probably 

1363
01:25:12,000 --> 01:25:16,720
Brian Robinson. 
But he's just like he's the plus

1364
01:25:16,720 --> 01:25:20,840
version of the backs that are on
this page. 

1365
01:25:20,880 --> 01:25:24,040
You know, he he's he's 
definitely like I would if I had

1366
01:25:24,040 --> 01:25:28,720
to start anyone on this page, 
it's it's probably, you know, 

1367
01:25:28,720 --> 01:25:31,560
Derrick Henry or Brian Robinson 
over the rest of the guys. 

1368
01:25:32,720 --> 01:25:34,360
Like actually, that's a that's a
good question. 

1369
01:25:34,360 --> 01:25:36,120
Who do you want, Derrick Henry 
or Brian Robinson? 

1370
01:25:36,120 --> 01:25:42,280
Rest the season? 
I mean, it's that that that is 

1371
01:25:42,280 --> 01:25:44,360
Derek Henry. 
It is Henry I, I agree. 

1372
01:25:44,440 --> 01:25:48,520
I. 
It's I, I I think you got a kick

1373
01:25:48,520 --> 01:25:54,000
out of asking that. 
But yeah, well, what's 

1374
01:25:54,000 --> 01:25:59,160
interesting about and Brian 
Robinson is that despite and 

1375
01:26:00,120 --> 01:26:07,120
despite the the low ish at 
committee style and splits our 

1376
01:26:07,120 --> 01:26:11,600
snap share, he did get a lot of 
expected points and he's clearly

1377
01:26:11,840 --> 01:26:13,680
he's clearly their preferred 
rusher. 

1378
01:26:14,480 --> 01:26:19,560
And then in terms of in terms of
routes are expected receiving, 

1379
01:26:19,560 --> 01:26:24,680
he was pretty close to Austin 
Eckler in in expected even 

1380
01:26:24,680 --> 01:26:26,080
though he was the last in 
routes. 

1381
01:26:26,640 --> 01:26:34,360
And I think he's pretty, pretty 
close in pass blocking less than

1382
01:26:34,360 --> 01:26:37,680
routes and then close in 
expected points. 

1383
01:26:38,080 --> 01:26:44,760
So I think it will be 
interesting to see if, if yeah, 

1384
01:26:44,760 --> 01:26:47,560
that that one's tricky where the
expected points were actually 

1385
01:26:47,560 --> 01:26:50,160
really good for Brian Robinson 
and people were like, wow, it's 

1386
01:26:50,160 --> 01:26:52,600
just Brian Robinson. 
And but then you look at the 

1387
01:26:52,600 --> 01:26:57,200
snap share it's and it's pretty 
close that maybe maybe the 

1388
01:26:57,200 --> 01:27:01,120
points outcomes this week are 
not reflective of what we'll see

1389
01:27:01,120 --> 01:27:03,600
going forward and it'll be 
closer to a 5050 split. 

1390
01:27:04,320 --> 01:27:06,920
Yeah, I, I definitely want to 
see how this plays out over the 

1391
01:27:06,920 --> 01:27:07,960
season. 
I do. 

1392
01:27:08,040 --> 01:27:11,960
I do think it's going to lean 
Robinson pretty, pretty 

1393
01:27:11,960 --> 01:27:14,560
confidently over Eckler. 
He he really looks just like, 

1394
01:27:14,680 --> 01:27:16,320
you know, the satellite pack and
the offense. 

1395
01:27:16,320 --> 01:27:20,600
But he he did not look bad, you 
know, in in the role that he was

1396
01:27:20,600 --> 01:27:23,160
used in. 
But I he's not really fantasy 

1397
01:27:23,160 --> 01:27:26,320
relevant for me in any managed 
league. 

1398
01:27:26,320 --> 01:27:29,200
Like you're never, if you're 
down to having to start Austin 

1399
01:27:29,200 --> 01:27:32,360
Eckler, like something's gone, 
it's the same thing as like 

1400
01:27:32,360 --> 01:27:34,520
having to start Justice Hill, 
like something's gone terribly 

1401
01:27:34,520 --> 01:27:39,280
wrong. 
That's fair. 

1402
01:27:42,400 --> 01:27:45,040
We've got two more running back 
charts to go through that I 

1403
01:27:45,040 --> 01:27:47,640
think are a little bit more 
illuminating than just the snaps

1404
01:27:47,640 --> 01:27:49,360
in usage. 
Is there anyone else that you 

1405
01:27:49,360 --> 01:27:52,400
wanted to touch on here before 
we get to the expected points? 

1406
01:27:52,400 --> 01:27:57,840
Charts And I mean, I guess, I 
guess it's worth mentioning here

1407
01:27:57,840 --> 01:28:04,520
that Zach Charbonnay was a lot 
closer to to what we would have 

1408
01:28:04,520 --> 01:28:08,440
expected in terms of snap share 
early in the summer before we 

1409
01:28:08,440 --> 01:28:11,680
heard all of the Oh yeah, it's 
kind of Walker season. 

1410
01:28:11,920 --> 01:28:14,080
Kent Walker did get injured in 
the fourth quarter. 

1411
01:28:14,440 --> 01:28:17,720
So maybe maybe that's helping 
boost some of this. 

1412
01:28:18,200 --> 01:28:23,080
And but this this still seems 
pretty, pretty positive in terms

1413
01:28:23,080 --> 01:28:26,840
of like he was in freefall. 
So that that is positive. 

1414
01:28:26,840 --> 01:28:32,160
And then but Bucky Irving is is 
certainly on a on watch list 

1415
01:28:32,320 --> 01:28:35,840
after he played much, much 
better than Rashad White. 

1416
01:28:36,240 --> 01:28:38,800
He he looked, he looked a lot 
better too. 

1417
01:28:39,040 --> 01:28:41,600
And like, yeah, I don't think 
you need to be. 

1418
01:28:41,600 --> 01:28:44,800
A carries where he was running 
the daylight, he saw the whole 

1419
01:28:45,000 --> 01:28:46,920
and he was just taking it. 0 
Hesitation. 

1420
01:28:47,400 --> 01:28:51,200
Yeah, you do not need to be a 
particularly sophisticated film 

1421
01:28:51,200 --> 01:28:53,600
watcher to to go and side by 
side. 

1422
01:28:53,600 --> 01:28:57,080
Compare a Rashad White carry to 
a Bucky Irving carry and tell me

1423
01:28:57,080 --> 01:28:59,000
which guy you want to give the 
ball all two more. 

1424
01:28:59,920 --> 01:29:02,440
And, and, and I think I think 
that's an interesting one of 

1425
01:29:02,520 --> 01:29:06,280
like, how would you play that? 
And like, are you like, are you 

1426
01:29:06,280 --> 01:29:09,400
starting Brookie Irving this 
week if you have him on A0B 

1427
01:29:09,400 --> 01:29:12,680
squad? 
It that heavily depends on like 

1428
01:29:12,680 --> 01:29:17,920
how bad my MY0RB room is right? 
Like it's it's Bookie Irving or 

1429
01:29:17,920 --> 01:29:22,640
Justice Hill where like it's 
eight points. 

1430
01:29:22,760 --> 01:29:26,800
You tink maybe six points from 
Justice Hill, I think. 

1431
01:29:27,360 --> 01:29:30,280
I, I think I, I want to roll the
dice with Bucky and see if I can

1432
01:29:30,280 --> 01:29:31,720
catch. 
I want to, I want to see if I 

1433
01:29:31,720 --> 01:29:34,160
can catch it before I have to 
see it with Bucky. 

1434
01:29:34,160 --> 01:29:38,160
Because he looked, he looked 
good enough that like it's, it's

1435
01:29:38,160 --> 01:29:41,840
one of those players where he 
might just be good enough that 

1436
01:29:41,840 --> 01:29:45,120
there's a week where it happens 
and then they can't look back. 

1437
01:29:45,200 --> 01:29:47,280
The genie's out of the bottle, 
you know? 

1438
01:29:48,040 --> 01:29:50,000
And Rashad White is now being 
relevant. 

1439
01:29:51,080 --> 01:29:55,480
Yeah. 
So that's, yeah, Bucky Irving 

1440
01:29:55,480 --> 01:29:57,560
is, is interesting. 
If you got a big bag of Bucky 

1441
01:29:57,560 --> 01:29:59,080
Irving, you got to be feeling 
good right now. 

1442
01:29:59,080 --> 01:30:03,200
I know that was one of Gretch's 
highest owned players overall. 

1443
01:30:03,640 --> 01:30:06,520
And I, I had a good amount of 
Bucky Irving, not as much as 

1444
01:30:06,520 --> 01:30:09,120
Gretch, but that one's looking 
like it's going to age pretty 

1445
01:30:09,120 --> 01:30:13,160
well. 
Yeah, yeah, I, I, I agree and 

1446
01:30:13,160 --> 01:30:17,160
but not starting, you're not 
starting him in like DF, you're 

1447
01:30:17,160 --> 01:30:18,880
not playing him in DFS. 
No, no, no. 

1448
01:30:19,040 --> 01:30:22,000
Underdog. 
Because you don't. 

1449
01:30:22,000 --> 01:30:23,920
You don't need to go there. 
Yeah. 

1450
01:30:25,360 --> 01:30:28,480
And so this is our running back 
expected fantasy points and 

1451
01:30:28,480 --> 01:30:32,400
efficiency chart. 
And we have on the horizontal 

1452
01:30:32,400 --> 01:30:36,960
axis and we have rushing 
expected points on the receiving

1453
01:30:37,200 --> 01:30:40,200
axis or say on the vertical 
axis, we have receiving. 

1454
01:30:40,840 --> 01:30:44,880
And then we SAC has these like 
kind of like jotted lines that 

1455
01:30:44,880 --> 01:30:49,280
go where to help you visualize 
where they are in terms of total

1456
01:30:50,240 --> 01:30:54,360
expected points. 
And you have the nice little 

1457
01:30:54,360 --> 01:31:01,560
labels at that help you there. 
And then I guess one other no, 

1458
01:31:01,560 --> 01:31:03,480
because we get questions on this
all the time. 

1459
01:31:03,720 --> 01:31:05,920
People are like, oh, so and so 
isn't on the chart. 

1460
01:31:06,200 --> 01:31:08,920
And Zach, do you want to explain
how you kind of like divvy up 

1461
01:31:09,000 --> 01:31:13,520
this these two charts? 
Yeah, go go ahead and zoom us in

1462
01:31:13,520 --> 01:31:16,640
a little bit while I explain it.
So there are so many running 

1463
01:31:16,640 --> 01:31:20,800
backs that would be on this 
chart if it were just one chart 

1464
01:31:21,480 --> 01:31:23,680
that it would get really 
difficult to read. 

1465
01:31:23,680 --> 01:31:27,880
So we split the running backs 
into two charts here, and 

1466
01:31:27,880 --> 01:31:31,200
they're not split by anything 
that would be super easy for you

1467
01:31:31,200 --> 01:31:35,000
to intuit who is on which chart.
They are literally ordered from 

1468
01:31:35,000 --> 01:31:39,400
top to bottom from expected 
fantasy points and then split 

1469
01:31:39,520 --> 01:31:42,760
Odd even odd even. 
So the first guy and the third 

1470
01:31:42,760 --> 01:31:46,120
guy and the fifth guy and the 
7th guy all go on one chart. 

1471
01:31:46,400 --> 01:31:50,280
The 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 8th guy 
all ranked by expected fantasy 

1472
01:31:50,280 --> 01:31:54,240
points go on the other chart. 
And that's just to help spread 

1473
01:31:54,240 --> 01:31:57,480
them out more evenly for where 
they would fall on the chart. 

1474
01:31:57,480 --> 01:32:00,040
Soon it'll get a bunch of guys 
randomly clustered together. 

1475
01:32:00,360 --> 01:32:02,440
Or try to avoid it as best as we
can. 

1476
01:32:05,800 --> 01:32:08,480
That that makes sense. 
And I just going back on the 

1477
01:32:08,480 --> 01:32:13,560
comments here and we had a 
question here about Blake 

1478
01:32:13,560 --> 01:32:16,080
quorum. 
Are we holding any hope? 

1479
01:32:18,240 --> 01:32:24,240
I I agree with historical 
anomalies here that it's too you

1480
01:32:24,240 --> 01:32:29,960
can't you can't drop a day 2 
running back after he didn't 

1481
01:32:29,960 --> 01:32:34,440
play or he barely played in week
one that we we we we could still

1482
01:32:34,440 --> 01:32:38,040
see something there. 
And but definitely yeah, given 

1483
01:32:38,040 --> 01:32:42,840
the lack of strength in not 
running back chart and him not 

1484
01:32:42,840 --> 01:32:45,280
playing at all, definitely 
concerning like. 

1485
01:32:46,560 --> 01:32:48,600
Yeah. 
I mean, the vast, the vast 

1486
01:32:48,600 --> 01:32:51,320
majority of the price you paid 
on Quorum, though was for the 

1487
01:32:51,320 --> 01:32:54,920
contingent value. 
So dropping him after one week 

1488
01:32:55,480 --> 01:32:57,080
kind of defeats. 
If you're going to do that, you 

1489
01:32:57,080 --> 01:32:58,840
just should never have drafted 
them, right? 

1490
01:32:59,080 --> 01:33:02,160
Right, right, right. 
We see we saw a bunch of rookie 

1491
01:33:02,160 --> 01:33:05,040
running backs that were either 
healthy scratches like Jalen 

1492
01:33:05,040 --> 01:33:08,080
Wright or or didn't really play 
that much. 

1493
01:33:08,560 --> 01:33:13,920
Yeah, but it was concerning. 
Not definitely not like you 

1494
01:33:13,920 --> 01:33:18,040
said, definitely not cutting him
and but want to see him make 

1495
01:33:18,040 --> 01:33:21,040
some kind of inroad. 
And this year can't can't hold 

1496
01:33:21,040 --> 01:33:22,760
him the whole season. 
Yeah. 

1497
01:33:24,200 --> 01:33:27,040
So, so for this chart, the 
expected fantasy points and 

1498
01:33:27,040 --> 01:33:30,880
efficiency chart, the easy way 
to read it is you know, if 

1499
01:33:30,880 --> 01:33:34,160
you're the higher up you are in 
the band of expected fantasy 

1500
01:33:34,160 --> 01:33:36,840
points, that the more 
opportunity you're getting. 

1501
01:33:37,320 --> 01:33:41,040
And then the larger your dot or 
your data point, the more 

1502
01:33:41,040 --> 01:33:43,200
efficient you're being with what
you're given. 

1503
01:33:43,600 --> 01:33:48,120
And so you can see that pink dot
over there in that last band the

1504
01:33:48,160 --> 01:33:51,640
the 20 plus expected fantasy 
points that is just a a 

1505
01:33:51,640 --> 01:33:56,000
reference for size of that's 
zero fancy points over expected 

1506
01:33:56,000 --> 01:33:58,560
per game. 
So running backs that are that 

1507
01:33:58,560 --> 01:34:03,040
size are getting exactly what we
expected them guys that are 

1508
01:34:03,040 --> 01:34:07,200
larger than that are scoring 
above expectation and guys that 

1509
01:34:07,200 --> 01:34:09,800
are smaller than that are 
scoring below expectation. 

1510
01:34:10,200 --> 01:34:15,480
One note about fantasy points 
over expected is touchdowns can 

1511
01:34:15,480 --> 01:34:19,040
do some wonky stuff to it. 
So if you got a goal line carry,

1512
01:34:19,720 --> 01:34:23,040
you punching in that that 
touchdown or that goal line 

1513
01:34:23,040 --> 01:34:25,920
carry is probabilistic in 
nature. 

1514
01:34:25,920 --> 01:34:29,120
It's not you know you're not 
going to score a touchdown 100% 

1515
01:34:29,120 --> 01:34:30,920
of the time when you run from 
the one yard line. 

1516
01:34:31,280 --> 01:34:35,320
So you have some expected 
fantasy points smaller than 6 as

1517
01:34:35,320 --> 01:34:38,320
your expectation there. 
And so when you score, you're 

1518
01:34:38,320 --> 01:34:41,640
over expectation by whatever you
know your probability was of 

1519
01:34:41,640 --> 01:34:45,280
punching it in. 
Or if you got a touchdown from 

1520
01:34:45,280 --> 01:34:47,080
15 yards out. 
Right, right. 

1521
01:34:47,800 --> 01:34:52,520
Yeah, or if you get multiple 
carries from the one and fail to

1522
01:34:52,520 --> 01:34:56,560
punch a couple in, you're going 
to go under expectation on that 

1523
01:34:56,800 --> 01:35:01,480
simply because you got stuffed. 
So just just wanted to explain 

1524
01:35:01,480 --> 01:35:03,240
that. 
So we're not like, oh big dot 

1525
01:35:03,240 --> 01:35:05,720
good, little dot bad. 
Sometimes there's a little more 

1526
01:35:05,720 --> 01:35:08,800
nuance to it, but just, you 
know, if you're, if you're 

1527
01:35:08,800 --> 01:35:11,440
wanting to get a quick glimpse 
of who is efficient, who is 

1528
01:35:11,440 --> 01:35:14,520
inefficient, the size of the 
dots can help out there. 

1529
01:35:17,040 --> 01:35:22,440
So one thing I don't they are 
both on the chart here where we 

1530
01:35:22,440 --> 01:35:28,480
have we have Naji who had a 
pretty heavy healthy above 15 

1531
01:35:28,480 --> 01:35:32,960
expected points this week and 
then Jill and Warren, who we 

1532
01:35:32,960 --> 01:35:36,880
actually didn't mention because 
she didn't play enough snaps to 

1533
01:35:36,880 --> 01:35:41,960
get on to the last chart. 
I think we are not, we're not 

1534
01:35:41,960 --> 01:35:44,040
medical. 
People don't want to speculate 

1535
01:35:44,040 --> 01:35:48,080
on the medical stuff. 
Do you think there's some chance

1536
01:35:48,080 --> 01:35:51,080
that they're winning them off 
the they're winning them back 

1537
01:35:51,440 --> 01:35:57,200
from the the hamstring injury 
and go ahead? 

1538
01:35:57,600 --> 01:36:00,160
Yeah, Tomlin said. 
You know, oh, when it, you know,

1539
01:36:00,160 --> 01:36:02,560
it comes to that, it's a 
slippery slope talking about 

1540
01:36:02,560 --> 01:36:06,640
Jalen Warren's hamstring injury.
So it seems like they're just 

1541
01:36:06,640 --> 01:36:11,680
trying to be cautious with it. 
And you know, I, I don't know if

1542
01:36:11,880 --> 01:36:15,760
we can read too much into that 
with them being cautious with 

1543
01:36:15,760 --> 01:36:19,400
Russell Wilson's injury too and 
not playing him if maybe their 

1544
01:36:19,400 --> 01:36:21,200
medical staff. 
Are you saying he made some 

1545
01:36:21,240 --> 01:36:24,320
comment that yes, being 
cautious? 

1546
01:36:25,200 --> 01:36:29,200
Yeah, when when asked about 
Jalen Warren's hamstring, he 

1547
01:36:29,200 --> 01:36:32,120
said something to the effect of 
hamstring injuries or a slippery

1548
01:36:32,120 --> 01:36:36,040
slope, implying that, you know, 
he didn't want to be risking 

1549
01:36:36,040 --> 01:36:41,280
Warren's health out there. 
So, you know, I'm not, I'm not 

1550
01:36:41,280 --> 01:36:45,920
panicking yet on Jalen Warren, 
although it is, you know, it's 

1551
01:36:45,920 --> 01:36:48,240
week one. 
It's fantasy football, been 

1552
01:36:48,240 --> 01:36:51,360
drafted all summer. 
It's a little fun to just just 

1553
01:36:51,360 --> 01:36:53,320
panic for fun. 
You know, even even though I 

1554
01:36:53,320 --> 01:36:56,720
know that there's nothing that 
I'm actually like, if I were 

1555
01:36:56,720 --> 01:37:00,280
making decisions based on this, 
I'm not like, Oh my gosh. 

1556
01:37:00,280 --> 01:37:04,000
Jalen Warren is substantially 
worse than he was just a couple 

1557
01:37:04,000 --> 01:37:07,560
weeks ago from this one week of 
usage off of a hamstring injury 

1558
01:37:07,560 --> 01:37:10,600
like. 
But it can be fun to pretend the

1559
01:37:10,600 --> 01:37:13,320
sky is falling for your most 
drafted player, so. 

1560
01:37:16,320 --> 01:37:18,600
Doesn't sound like my idea of 
fun. 

1561
01:37:19,120 --> 01:37:21,440
Well, I'm I'm a twisted 
individual. 

1562
01:37:22,720 --> 01:37:29,600
And then some of the some of the
stuff for for Naji was really 

1563
01:37:29,600 --> 01:37:34,360
bad. 
Like he had so just 26% just 

1564
01:37:34,360 --> 01:37:38,960
using the next Gen. start, just 
26% of his there of his car of 

1565
01:37:38,960 --> 01:37:43,080
his runs were above what was 
expected. 

1566
01:37:43,520 --> 01:37:49,120
So he played bad and with the 
offense not playing the best 

1567
01:37:49,120 --> 01:38:00,560
eater and then him being -4.2 
points on them, expected points 

1568
01:38:00,560 --> 01:38:03,800
below on touchdowns. 
So not converting on goal line 

1569
01:38:03,800 --> 01:38:08,800
stuff and there's, there's 
definitely enough, there's 

1570
01:38:08,800 --> 01:38:10,240
definitely room to leave a light
on there. 

1571
01:38:11,720 --> 01:38:15,840
Yeah, he he also, I mean, not 
converting on the touchdown 

1572
01:38:15,840 --> 01:38:20,360
like, yeah, of course you, you 
would want to see like this huge

1573
01:38:20,360 --> 01:38:23,360
like bruiser back like that. 
That's the thing that you're 

1574
01:38:23,360 --> 01:38:26,800
hoping that he does. 
But you know, I'm not like I'm 

1575
01:38:26,800 --> 01:38:28,560
not so overly concerned about 
that. 

1576
01:38:28,840 --> 01:38:30,160
Right, right, right, right. 
What's not? 

1577
01:38:30,160 --> 01:38:33,160
It was a player we liked. 
We we was like, oh, just 

1578
01:38:33,160 --> 01:38:37,480
variants, right. 
And so he was also bad. 

1579
01:38:37,720 --> 01:38:39,920
He was also bad on just normal 
rushing. 

1580
01:38:39,920 --> 01:38:43,000
Stuff that's that's what I was 
going to get to he he wasn't as 

1581
01:38:43,000 --> 01:38:47,840
a rusher either. 
So, you know, I'm I want to wait

1582
01:38:47,840 --> 01:38:50,120
and see what's happening with 
the Steelers backfield. 

1583
01:38:51,520 --> 01:38:55,040
Cordero Patterson stuff is 
frustrating too that like we're 

1584
01:38:55,040 --> 01:38:58,640
giving Cordero Patterson carries
in the year of our Lord 2024. 

1585
01:38:58,640 --> 01:39:03,640
But I mean, that's just Arthur 
Smith is going to Arthur Smith, 

1586
01:39:03,640 --> 01:39:07,080
so. 
Yeah. 

1587
01:39:07,200 --> 01:39:13,280
And I guess if you look at it 
and 9% of the plays was either a

1588
01:39:13,280 --> 01:39:17,040
route or Ram or a rush attempt 
for quarter out Patterson. 

1589
01:39:18,160 --> 01:39:23,680
And which to me, I get, I guess 
that's just a little bit of 

1590
01:39:23,680 --> 01:39:26,200
above what you might expect from
Norby Tree. 

1591
01:39:27,120 --> 01:39:33,040
And but when, when, when it's a 
sluggish day for the offense and

1592
01:39:33,160 --> 01:39:39,240
Warren is not getting what we 
want and that that stuff, that 

1593
01:39:39,400 --> 01:39:42,400
stuff does not help. 
It's very frustrating, right? 

1594
01:39:44,200 --> 01:39:47,520
Going to the opposite end of the
spectrum as far as efficiency, 

1595
01:39:48,040 --> 01:39:50,840
Aaron Jones was pretty darn 
efficient. 

1596
01:39:50,840 --> 01:39:54,840
He looked, he looked good. 
He looked like vintage Aaron 

1597
01:39:54,840 --> 01:39:57,520
Jones. 
You know, he he was above 

1598
01:39:57,520 --> 01:40:01,040
expectation on his yardage. 
He converted a touchdown, which 

1599
01:40:01,040 --> 01:40:04,280
he was above expectation on 
that, but he also was above 

1600
01:40:04,280 --> 01:40:09,320
expectation almost 4 yards over 
expected on his yardage or 4 

1601
01:40:09,320 --> 01:40:10,360
fantasy points. 
Excuse me. 

1602
01:40:10,360 --> 01:40:13,520
So almost 3 yards over expected.
That's really good. 

1603
01:40:15,080 --> 01:40:17,640
So yeah, Aaron, Aaron Jones 
looks great. 

1604
01:40:19,240 --> 01:40:22,040
Definitely looking like a win 
where he was drafted with how 

1605
01:40:22,040 --> 01:40:25,840
much opportunity he got and the 
efficiency still being there for

1606
01:40:25,840 --> 01:40:30,360
him. 
Other guys that are in this band

1607
01:40:30,360 --> 01:40:33,440
of 10 to 15 fantasy points, 
David Montgomery, like we talked

1608
01:40:33,440 --> 01:40:36,960
about, were David Montgomery 
doing the vast majority of his 

1609
01:40:36,960 --> 01:40:38,880
through his expected rushing 
points. 

1610
01:40:38,880 --> 01:40:42,640
You can see he's not high up on 
the Y axis at all there. 

1611
01:40:42,960 --> 01:40:44,960
Aaron Jones with a little bit 
more balance. 

1612
01:40:46,760 --> 01:40:49,840
Also, we'd be remiss if we 
didn't mention your favorite 

1613
01:40:49,840 --> 01:40:54,080
player, Devin Singletary hanging
out here also in this 10 to 15 

1614
01:40:54,080 --> 01:40:59,280
expected fantasy point band. 
Singletary doing it less 

1615
01:40:59,280 --> 01:41:04,920
efficiently than Aaron Jones. 
But Singletary just has the 

1616
01:41:04,920 --> 01:41:07,760
role. 
He he is getting the work. 

1617
01:41:08,080 --> 01:41:12,080
Tyrone Tracy did get on the 
field a little bit, but 

1618
01:41:12,080 --> 01:41:15,720
Singletary just looks like he's 
doing what he's done in every 

1619
01:41:15,720 --> 01:41:19,680
other backfield where he just 
absorbs all the work and he 

1620
01:41:19,680 --> 01:41:22,200
doesn't have to be particularly 
efficient with it. 

1621
01:41:22,200 --> 01:41:31,560
It's just coming from volume. 
Yeah, and I think you you have 

1622
01:41:31,560 --> 01:41:33,440
to hope for better days for that
offense. 

1623
01:41:33,520 --> 01:41:38,880
You, you really do. 
And but getting getting 

1624
01:41:38,880 --> 01:41:42,520
something like Singletary where 
he's getting he's getting that 

1625
01:41:42,520 --> 01:41:46,680
kind of workhorse type what not 
quite workhorse, but close to 

1626
01:41:46,680 --> 01:41:49,520
workhorse role and you're 
getting at the price that you 

1627
01:41:49,520 --> 01:41:54,760
did. 
And is you talk about innings 

1628
01:41:54,760 --> 01:41:56,520
either like that, that is a 
great innings either. 

1629
01:41:56,720 --> 01:42:02,080
Yes, yeah, absolutely. 
Just on on, on on Aaron Jones 

1630
01:42:02,400 --> 01:42:05,720
and you can kind of see what the
bubble here and what he really 

1631
01:42:05,720 --> 01:42:11,560
did play phenomenal, like 40 
yards over expected like 65% of 

1632
01:42:11,560 --> 01:42:17,560
his of his of his rushing went 
above his rushing plays. 

1633
01:42:17,680 --> 01:42:20,120
He went above the expectation 
for. 

1634
01:42:20,400 --> 01:42:22,280
So he really did have a 
phenomenal day. 

1635
01:42:22,720 --> 01:42:26,880
And then I saw something that he
never got that he never saw 8 

1636
01:42:26,880 --> 01:42:31,320
defenders in the box, which 
that's Sam that to go above 

1637
01:42:31,320 --> 01:42:36,320
expectation when there's no, 
when there's less than 80 or 8, 

1638
01:42:36,600 --> 01:42:40,760
there's never 8 defenders in the
boxes that, that, that's pretty,

1639
01:42:40,960 --> 01:42:44,520
pretty phenomenal day. 
Yeah, definitely. 

1640
01:42:44,520 --> 01:42:47,120
You got to be feeling good if 
you got Aaron Jones on your team

1641
01:42:48,120 --> 01:42:53,240
and he, he seems like a very 
viable guy that you would be 

1642
01:42:53,240 --> 01:42:56,640
happy to play in DFS or happy to
play in Battle Royale. 

1643
01:42:57,240 --> 01:43:02,080
You know, just if he's ever he's
ever getting underpriced, you 

1644
01:43:02,080 --> 01:43:05,760
know, due to a he's not like the
the shiny hot young thing or 

1645
01:43:05,760 --> 01:43:09,240
anything like he's definitely a 
guy that you could attack if if 

1646
01:43:09,240 --> 01:43:16,200
he's not correctly priced man. 
But guys, guys that were really 

1647
01:43:16,200 --> 01:43:18,480
excited about that are also very
efficient. 

1648
01:43:19,200 --> 01:43:25,200
Devana Chan getting nearly 12 
expected receiving fantasy 

1649
01:43:25,200 --> 01:43:27,800
points. 
That is pretty incredible. 

1650
01:43:29,600 --> 01:43:34,440
I mean, he he looks like we 
probably should have been 

1651
01:43:34,440 --> 01:43:37,480
drafting him at the 1-2 turn 
with the role that he has. 

1652
01:43:37,480 --> 01:43:40,280
Like, yeah, yeah. 
A little bit of concern where 

1653
01:43:40,280 --> 01:43:42,840
there's there's just I think 
there's speculation of like a a 

1654
01:43:42,840 --> 01:43:48,440
mild high ankle sprain and, and,
and it sounds questionable as if

1655
01:43:48,560 --> 01:43:52,680
he'll play on Thursday with the 
short week and a little bit of 

1656
01:43:52,680 --> 01:43:56,320
concern there with the injury. 
But the role is is awesome. 

1657
01:43:57,360 --> 01:44:00,560
Yeah, we, we definitely. 
And then I think the other thing

1658
01:44:00,560 --> 01:44:03,720
as well, they talked about using
him as like the, the, the the 

1659
01:44:03,720 --> 01:44:06,840
facto turd receiver. 
It it, it really felt like they 

1660
01:44:06,840 --> 01:44:07,920
were. 
They did. 

1661
01:44:07,960 --> 01:44:10,960
Yeah. 
It's yeah, They it was not just 

1662
01:44:10,960 --> 01:44:13,760
talk. 
They were lining him up out wide

1663
01:44:14,000 --> 01:44:18,200
and like they they were just 
designing ways to get him the 

1664
01:44:18,200 --> 01:44:22,160
ball in space like these little,
you know, just all right, we're 

1665
01:44:22,160 --> 01:44:24,200
just going to throw a quick 
little screen to HN. 

1666
01:44:24,240 --> 01:44:27,240
He's lined up out wide and good 
luck. 

1667
01:44:27,240 --> 01:44:28,640
You know, let's, let's see how 
it plays out. 

1668
01:44:28,640 --> 01:44:31,320
Let's see how it works. 
We're going to get one of the 

1669
01:44:31,320 --> 01:44:34,520
fastest guys in the league the 
ball and we'll just see how it 

1670
01:44:34,520 --> 01:44:37,920
goes. 
Another guy with absolutely 

1671
01:44:37,920 --> 01:44:40,160
elite receiving role, Jameer 
Gibbs. 

1672
01:44:41,280 --> 01:44:45,640
You know, this is an area where 
last year we were a little 

1673
01:44:45,640 --> 01:44:49,520
disappointed in the amount of 
receiving work he got where that

1674
01:44:49,520 --> 01:44:52,640
was really what he was 
highlighted for coming into the 

1675
01:44:52,640 --> 01:44:54,280
league. 
You know, lots of people 

1676
01:44:54,280 --> 01:44:57,400
projecting that he was going to 
be this incredible receiving 

1677
01:44:57,400 --> 01:45:00,960
back. 
Getting a lot of expected 

1678
01:45:01,000 --> 01:45:05,520
receiving fantasy points here. 
Just honestly just hoping to see

1679
01:45:05,520 --> 01:45:09,920
that trend continue. 
Thoughts on if this is going to 

1680
01:45:09,920 --> 01:45:14,600
be sticky or will he get back a 
little closer to where he was 

1681
01:45:14,600 --> 01:45:19,680
last season? 
And well, I mean, it's kind of 

1682
01:45:19,680 --> 01:45:23,480
showing up in the routes where 
he is their primary, he's their 

1683
01:45:23,480 --> 01:45:27,400
passing known back. 
And and and it is a valuable 

1684
01:45:27,400 --> 01:45:32,240
offense to be that in. 
And with Goff, I'm trying to 

1685
01:45:32,240 --> 01:45:36,200
find here because like 111 of 
the the knocks, OK, one of the 

1686
01:45:36,200 --> 01:45:41,240
knocks on that Gibbs has kind of
been that he's not really a 

1687
01:45:41,240 --> 01:45:44,280
receiving back. 
He's a back that you can throw 

1688
01:45:44,280 --> 01:45:49,360
the ball to and then he can turn
that into a run play and and and

1689
01:45:49,360 --> 01:45:54,480
so it was like minus 1/2 a yard.
So basically he was targeted at 

1690
01:45:54,480 --> 01:45:57,840
the line of scrimmage. 
So that part has has kind of 

1691
01:45:58,040 --> 01:46:00,360
held up. 
He's going to catch green 

1692
01:46:00,360 --> 01:46:02,280
passes. 
He's not running routes down the

1693
01:46:02,280 --> 01:46:09,000
field and but his just just to 
go back to if you don't mind and

1694
01:46:09,760 --> 01:46:14,000
his if you can see where is he 
here? 

1695
01:46:14,360 --> 01:46:16,560
He's down near the bottom, third
from the bottom. 

1696
01:46:17,000 --> 01:46:22,920
Yeah, him getting this huge 
route share it that that makes 

1697
01:46:22,920 --> 01:46:27,560
me think that that it's it's 
pretty sticky. 

1698
01:46:28,280 --> 01:46:31,120
OK. 
I guess the other the other 

1699
01:46:31,120 --> 01:46:35,360
pieces though, and I'm sorry, 
the other pieces they did run a 

1700
01:46:35,360 --> 01:46:40,640
lot of plays. 
And so even though his share is 

1701
01:46:40,640 --> 01:46:45,920
good, his his, the total 
expected points from from 

1702
01:46:45,920 --> 01:46:48,400
receiving probably will come 
down a bit just because they 

1703
01:46:48,400 --> 01:46:52,560
won't run that many plays every 
week and. 

1704
01:46:52,680 --> 01:46:55,640
Yeah, I think, and I think we 
can probably say the same thing 

1705
01:46:55,640 --> 01:46:59,200
about Jerome Ford where his 
receiving expected points are 

1706
01:46:59,200 --> 01:47:00,640
almost certainly going to come 
down. 

1707
01:47:00,640 --> 01:47:04,320
I think a pretty big part of 
that was a function of them just

1708
01:47:04,320 --> 01:47:10,480
being very behind all day. 
And also they were not able to 

1709
01:47:11,000 --> 01:47:14,560
stop the pass rush from Dallas. 
So they just needed to get the 

1710
01:47:14,560 --> 01:47:17,280
ball out quickly. 
And then you get the David and 

1711
01:47:17,280 --> 01:47:21,280
Joku injury and he was normally 
operating as their, you know, 

1712
01:47:21,280 --> 01:47:25,120
short yardage check down type of
guy and he gets injured. 

1713
01:47:25,120 --> 01:47:28,640
And so Ford just, you know, kind
of cleans up there and they they

1714
01:47:28,640 --> 01:47:31,560
didn't it was not a functional 
offense that they were running 

1715
01:47:31,960 --> 01:47:34,440
in Cleveland. 
And so Ford, Ford was the 

1716
01:47:34,440 --> 01:47:38,080
benefactor of that or it was 
like, well, go try and do 

1717
01:47:38,080 --> 01:47:40,640
something, but we got to get it 
out so. 

1718
01:47:41,400 --> 01:47:47,080
He had a he had a 64% rent share
and but they also had 56 drop 

1719
01:47:47,080 --> 01:47:51,160
backs. 
Yeah, so so he's certainly the 

1720
01:47:51,160 --> 01:47:53,640
passing down back. 
He's very firmly the passing 

1721
01:47:53,640 --> 01:48:01,160
down back. 
But it's like misleading in in 

1722
01:48:01,160 --> 01:48:05,480
the high expected points thing 
where it's only shows up as high

1723
01:48:05,480 --> 01:48:08,680
because they were so bad. 
Whereas if they actually played 

1724
01:48:08,680 --> 01:48:14,040
well and if they if, if, if this
team was efficient, the volume 

1725
01:48:14,040 --> 01:48:15,800
will be much lower. 
Right. 

1726
01:48:18,600 --> 01:48:21,400
What do you what do you think 
about Alexander Madison here? 

1727
01:48:21,640 --> 01:48:27,440
He you know relatively efficient
day, you know above expected, 

1728
01:48:27,840 --> 01:48:31,240
but not not too many expected 
points. 

1729
01:48:31,240 --> 01:48:35,680
It what what is what is? 
Already a grade and and 0B pick 

1730
01:48:36,200 --> 01:48:39,160
where you took him where writing
to use his weak one score is 

1731
01:48:39,160 --> 01:48:44,360
going to help you a lot. 
And then the question becomes, I

1732
01:48:44,360 --> 01:48:46,920
think the most interesting way 
to frame the question on Madison

1733
01:48:46,920 --> 01:48:51,600
is, are you starting him over 
and Justice Hill where Justice 

1734
01:48:51,600 --> 01:48:57,640
Hills are bogey of like, are 
you, are you foregoing the 

1735
01:48:57,640 --> 01:49:00,720
comfortability of six to eight 
points for what this guy can 

1736
01:49:00,720 --> 01:49:02,560
give you? 
Because you're not playing him 

1737
01:49:02,560 --> 01:49:04,520
in the FS, you're not playing 
him any of that stuff. 

1738
01:49:05,400 --> 01:49:15,640
And, and to me and to me, that 
question is kind of like, well, 

1739
01:49:16,240 --> 01:49:20,320
he's not. 
So I guess he's 47% of the 

1740
01:49:20,320 --> 01:49:23,280
team's useful kind of like 
snaps. 

1741
01:49:23,280 --> 01:49:29,000
So radshare and rush attempts. 
So 8 percent, 8% was Russia 

1742
01:49:29,000 --> 01:49:35,200
attempt, 39% was radshare and 
then you have a six. 

1743
01:49:36,040 --> 01:49:40,920
No, no, he was he is 10 expected
points, 6 fancy points over 

1744
01:49:40,920 --> 01:49:44,600
expected. 
And so can you can he can he be 

1745
01:49:44,600 --> 01:49:47,440
a 12 point a week guy for his 
team? 

1746
01:49:48,600 --> 01:49:51,840
And I think I think you can I 
think that sounds about right. 

1747
01:49:52,400 --> 01:49:56,360
I think you probably do start 
somebody like Madison over at 

1748
01:49:56,360 --> 01:50:01,520
Justice Hill because right now 
you do have that concern about 

1749
01:50:01,520 --> 01:50:05,560
Justice Hill's floor where in 
the weeks where they boat race 

1750
01:50:05,560 --> 01:50:07,440
somebody, he's not going to be 
on the field a lot. 

1751
01:50:08,040 --> 01:50:11,160
And then they show their 
intentions with, hey, we 

1752
01:50:11,160 --> 01:50:13,920
actually we see Madison has a 
better back. 

1753
01:50:14,560 --> 01:50:16,640
We want him running most of the 
routes. 

1754
01:50:17,120 --> 01:50:22,960
And with it being not the best 
team in the Raiders, that that 

1755
01:50:22,960 --> 01:50:24,840
that seems like that seems 
helpful. 

1756
01:50:26,560 --> 01:50:28,680
Yeah. 
I mean, I think, I think at this

1757
01:50:28,680 --> 01:50:33,000
point you're, you're probably 
just doing Madison over Justice 

1758
01:50:33,000 --> 01:50:39,280
Hill because I think that. 39% 
of the of the plays were routes 

1759
01:50:39,280 --> 01:50:44,160
with him to 16% for Samir White.
So he is the passing them back 

1760
01:50:44,160 --> 01:50:51,760
for the Raiders right now. 
So and then even though the the 

1761
01:50:51,760 --> 01:50:57,960
rush attempts we're a little bit
lower and I think, I think it's 

1762
01:50:57,960 --> 01:51:00,440
the Raiders receiving back that 
you want, it's not the rushing 

1763
01:51:00,440 --> 01:51:06,160
back. 
Right, let's see anyone else on 

1764
01:51:06,160 --> 01:51:08,680
this. 
Yeah, so the Oh my God, I 

1765
01:51:08,680 --> 01:51:10,000
forgot. 
I'm not for forgetting now. 

1766
01:51:10,880 --> 01:51:14,920
Oh, the one the one thing that 
people I think the one 

1767
01:51:14,920 --> 01:51:17,480
development of this week was 
Jacksonville. 

1768
01:51:17,960 --> 01:51:23,640
So the ETN he had that he had 
the bad fumble tank Bixby. 

1769
01:51:23,880 --> 01:51:27,560
He actually tank Bixby. 
He played this kind of like low 

1770
01:51:27,560 --> 01:51:32,200
snap share, but when he when he 
played, he got the ball and then

1771
01:51:32,200 --> 01:51:34,800
when he got the ball, he was 
actually pretty efficient with 

1772
01:51:34,800 --> 01:51:36,400
it. 
Like his next chance. 

1773
01:51:36,400 --> 01:51:39,560
That stuff was good. 
His his finest points over 

1774
01:51:39,560 --> 01:51:43,520
expected from rushing was good. 
And so that that that that's 

1775
01:51:43,520 --> 01:51:47,480
something where, you know, you, 
you compare the profiles of a 

1776
01:51:47,480 --> 01:51:53,080
back like ETN to to one of tanks
Bigby, like Etns caliber is 

1777
01:51:53,080 --> 01:51:57,320
much, much higher, but then you 
have this high profile mistake 

1778
01:51:58,000 --> 01:51:59,680
and then the other guy plays 
well. 

1779
01:52:00,600 --> 01:52:04,600
I think that that is something 
to to kind of watch out for of 

1780
01:52:04,600 --> 01:52:10,400
like how comfortable that they 
feel giving a turning that into 

1781
01:52:10,400 --> 01:52:14,480
a closer to a 5050 split. 
I still I still like my bias 

1782
01:52:14,480 --> 01:52:17,280
would be that something like 
that can't really last that 

1783
01:52:17,280 --> 01:52:21,840
long. 
And but, and, and I don't, I 

1784
01:52:21,840 --> 01:52:25,600
don't know if I'm starting tanks
big, big yet, but I, I, I 

1785
01:52:25,840 --> 01:52:27,120
definitely think that's 
something to watch. 

1786
01:52:28,280 --> 01:52:32,160
Yeah, the the Tank Bigsby was 
definitely an interesting one 

1787
01:52:32,160 --> 01:52:38,400
because he was so clearly not 
ready last season like he was he

1788
01:52:38,400 --> 01:52:42,320
wasn't just bad last year like 
it was it was harmful when he 

1789
01:52:42,320 --> 01:52:45,920
was he was the Cadarius Tony of 
running backs last year, You 

1790
01:52:45,920 --> 01:52:49,800
know, like when Tank Bigsby was 
on the field, it made the team a

1791
01:52:49,800 --> 01:52:51,440
lot more likely to lose the 
game. 

1792
01:52:51,440 --> 01:52:53,760
So that was bad. 
You know, most teams don't want 

1793
01:52:53,760 --> 01:52:57,120
to play with players like that. 
And the Jaguars stopped doing 

1794
01:52:57,120 --> 01:53:00,280
that after after they realized 
that was what it was, they 

1795
01:53:00,280 --> 01:53:02,440
stopped. 
But then this offseason we got 

1796
01:53:02,440 --> 01:53:05,160
all this talk about like, oh, 
they're really excited to feel 

1797
01:53:05,160 --> 01:53:09,200
good about Tank Bigsby. 
I'm wondering if the low 

1798
01:53:09,200 --> 01:53:15,840
snapshare stuff is more a factor
or like a feature of he's not 

1799
01:53:15,840 --> 01:53:18,920
really that complete a player. 
Like he's not able to do very 

1800
01:53:18,920 --> 01:53:22,520
much well, but they never. 
Have any pass blocking snaps 

1801
01:53:22,760 --> 01:53:24,680
right? 
All the pass blocking was ETN. 

1802
01:53:25,240 --> 01:53:29,960
They they at least feel like 
he's not going to because last 

1803
01:53:29,960 --> 01:53:34,760
year he was like just could not 
succeed on a run, you know, like

1804
01:53:34,760 --> 01:53:37,760
he so. 
But now they feel comfortable 

1805
01:53:37,760 --> 01:53:41,720
enough that he's able to spell 
ETN and give him a breather. 

1806
01:53:42,640 --> 01:53:46,680
So I mean, he certainly has some
contingent value, right? 

1807
01:53:46,680 --> 01:53:49,800
If ETN goes down like you would,
you'd absolutely see him, right?

1808
01:53:50,040 --> 01:53:52,320
Probably taking the majority of 
the carries there. 

1809
01:53:54,000 --> 01:53:58,600
But I don't think he's. 
Spelling ETN is a good way to 

1810
01:53:58,600 --> 01:54:04,200
put it where he's coming in to 
take a carry or two carries and 

1811
01:54:04,200 --> 01:54:08,400
then ETN is going back right. 
Like there's no, there's very 

1812
01:54:08,400 --> 01:54:11,120
little mystery about what the 
based on the week 1 stuff, 

1813
01:54:11,120 --> 01:54:13,360
there's very little mystery 
about what's happening when 

1814
01:54:13,360 --> 01:54:17,760
thanks basically come out to the
field and that that said, that's

1815
01:54:17,760 --> 01:54:19,520
not the best. 
Yeah. 

1816
01:54:19,600 --> 01:54:21,880
So I would I mean me personally 
like when? 

1817
01:54:22,000 --> 01:54:25,440
He's more of a like a dampener 
on Etns upside. 

1818
01:54:25,440 --> 01:54:28,760
Yes, I'm not panicking on on 
ETN. 

1819
01:54:29,280 --> 01:54:32,200
Then again, I wasn't drafting 
much ETN in the in the first 

1820
01:54:32,200 --> 01:54:35,960
place, but I I also think that I
probably played the tank bigsby 

1821
01:54:35,960 --> 01:54:39,200
thing a little wrong just cuz I 
was like, I've already seen this

1822
01:54:39,200 --> 01:54:41,240
guy. 
He stinks and I don't need to 

1823
01:54:41,240 --> 01:54:45,800
draft a running back that stinks
like I'll I'll just draft the 

1824
01:54:45,800 --> 01:54:47,800
guys that I think are are good 
instead. 

1825
01:54:49,360 --> 01:54:54,440
But he cuz last year, like when 
they needed him, it turned they 

1826
01:54:54,840 --> 01:54:57,200
they were like, you know what? 
We'd rather play D Ernest 

1827
01:54:57,200 --> 01:55:01,000
Johnson over this dude. 
And to me that was like, all 

1828
01:55:01,000 --> 01:55:02,440
right, it's probably curtains 
for this guy. 

1829
01:55:02,440 --> 01:55:06,720
I don't I don't need to bother 
with him this year, but it looks

1830
01:55:06,720 --> 01:55:09,600
like he he probably would. 
He he actually does have the 

1831
01:55:09,600 --> 01:55:13,520
contingent upside and I was 
operating under the assumption 

1832
01:55:13,520 --> 01:55:17,640
that he really did not. 
So that's that's probably a a 

1833
01:55:17,640 --> 01:55:19,960
slight misplay. 
I think drafting tank Bigsby 

1834
01:55:20,320 --> 01:55:23,520
definitely more defensible than 
I previously thought that it 

1835
01:55:23,520 --> 01:55:26,040
was. 
Right, that, that makes sense. 

1836
01:55:26,480 --> 01:55:29,840
And but you're not an, I don't 
think you're starting them yet. 

1837
01:55:29,840 --> 01:55:30,760
I don't think you're playing 
them. 

1838
01:55:30,760 --> 01:55:35,520
And I think yeah. 
And but you're, you're you're 

1839
01:55:35,520 --> 01:55:38,800
keeping an eye on it. 
Definitely, definitely regard to

1840
01:55:38,800 --> 01:55:43,120
ETN, right. 
So yeah, let's say let's move on

1841
01:55:43,120 --> 01:55:46,800
to the next chart. 
And damn, we are almost two 

1842
01:55:46,880 --> 01:55:49,560
hours in. 
Oh yeah, we're we're gonna set a

1843
01:55:49,560 --> 01:55:56,040
record tonight. 
So on this one, there's a guy 

1844
01:55:56,040 --> 01:56:01,440
that stood out for me is like 
the clear clear by candidate. 

1845
01:56:01,440 --> 01:56:04,280
And I love that his teammate is 
right here with him because it's

1846
01:56:04,280 --> 01:56:08,120
just like it's such a stark 
contrast since JK Dobbins versus

1847
01:56:08,120 --> 01:56:11,120
Gus Edwards. 
They're both in that, you know, 

1848
01:56:11,120 --> 01:56:14,560
5 to 10 expected fantasy point 
band with with Dobbins being 

1849
01:56:14,560 --> 01:56:19,160
right on the cusp of 10 to 15 
expected fantasy points and and 

1850
01:56:19,160 --> 01:56:21,560
Edwards being more in the middle
of that five to 10 range. 

1851
01:56:22,120 --> 01:56:26,720
But man, if you're if you're the
Chargers and yourself scouting, 

1852
01:56:27,240 --> 01:56:31,840
there is no way that you keep 
splitting up the work evenly 

1853
01:56:31,880 --> 01:56:34,520
between these guys. 
Like you have to just begin 

1854
01:56:34,520 --> 01:56:37,680
viewing Gus Edwards. 
It's like Gus Edwards needs to 

1855
01:56:37,680 --> 01:56:41,280
become the Tank Bixby of the Los
Angeles Charters. 

1856
01:56:41,520 --> 01:56:47,120
And I mean, JK Dobbins clearly, 
clearly should be getting more 

1857
01:56:47,120 --> 01:56:52,040
of the work in that offense. 
I would I would expect him to be

1858
01:56:52,040 --> 01:56:54,880
moving right on this chart in 
future weeks. 

1859
01:56:57,840 --> 01:57:01,360
Yeah. 
And yeah, that makes sense. 

1860
01:57:01,760 --> 01:57:05,000
That makes sense for sure. 
He we, we thought he was bad. 

1861
01:57:05,440 --> 01:57:08,760
He's playing bad. 
And we're excited about that. 

1862
01:57:08,760 --> 01:57:12,200
We're excited about Vidal. 
And so maybe, maybe it's it's 

1863
01:57:12,200 --> 01:57:15,920
Jacob. 
Jacob is moving up and then 

1864
01:57:17,480 --> 01:57:25,320
Vidal getting on the field. 
Yeah, 1 another one that you 

1865
01:57:25,320 --> 01:57:31,760
know, guy that I think will will
likely be moving from where he's

1866
01:57:31,760 --> 01:57:33,760
at right now. 
Like I just don't think Joe 

1867
01:57:33,760 --> 01:57:37,400
Mixon is going to have 20 
expected rushing points every 

1868
01:57:37,400 --> 01:57:39,480
game. 
Like they're just not going to 

1869
01:57:39,480 --> 01:57:43,840
give him 30 carries a game. 
So good, good sell high window 

1870
01:57:43,840 --> 01:57:48,360
on Joe Mixon in redraft if you 
have the ability to trade in if 

1871
01:57:48,360 --> 01:57:50,520
someone's going to buy into the 
fact that he's just going to get

1872
01:57:50,520 --> 01:57:54,600
this monster workload. 
I mean, Speaking of guys with 

1873
01:57:54,600 --> 01:57:58,160
monster workload loads. 
So like Kamara is just doing the

1874
01:57:58,160 --> 01:58:01,000
same stuff he did last year. 
This is this is basically 

1875
01:58:01,000 --> 01:58:04,080
exactly where he was last year 
on charts, right? 

1876
01:58:04,080 --> 01:58:08,080
Just like gets an absurd amount 
of work, has a ton of expected 

1877
01:58:08,200 --> 01:58:11,720
receiving fantasy points. 
Like, do you do you think we 

1878
01:58:11,720 --> 01:58:14,600
screwed the pooch if we were 
fading Kamara in basketball at 

1879
01:58:14,600 --> 01:58:20,240
its price? 
And I'm I'm not feeling bad 

1880
01:58:20,240 --> 01:58:23,480
about it yet. 
And some of that is just because

1881
01:58:23,480 --> 01:58:28,120
we saw we just saw an awesome 
week for the offense and, and, 

1882
01:58:28,280 --> 01:58:32,240
and maybe the maybe the offense 
is just really good this year 

1883
01:58:32,240 --> 01:58:33,760
and he's an important part of 
it. 

1884
01:58:35,000 --> 01:58:40,720
But you see some of the 
peripherals where his his his 

1885
01:58:40,720 --> 01:58:42,840
kind of advanced numbers are 
declining. 

1886
01:58:42,920 --> 01:58:48,680
He's not he hasn't been playing 
well in a long time and the week

1887
01:58:48,680 --> 01:58:55,360
1 high expected point stuff it 
it doesn't faze me really. 

1888
01:58:55,720 --> 01:59:00,200
And maybe it's just hard to see 
him getting off the field. 

1889
01:59:00,520 --> 01:59:06,320
But it I guess I think you're 
getting you're probably if you 

1890
01:59:06,320 --> 01:59:09,600
see this all year, you're 
probably hitting a double with 

1891
01:59:09,600 --> 01:59:14,840
where he was going. 
And I think, but I think there's

1892
01:59:14,840 --> 01:59:18,160
like he's one of those players 
where given that he's older, 

1893
01:59:18,160 --> 01:59:21,040
given that he's been declining, 
you do have that asymmetric 

1894
01:59:21,040 --> 01:59:24,520
downside too. 
Yeah, very, very well put. 

1895
01:59:24,520 --> 01:59:28,080
He to me. 
I'm I'm thinking that it might 

1896
01:59:28,200 --> 01:59:32,160
be one of the things where 
you're I I think you're right 

1897
01:59:32,160 --> 01:59:35,160
that he just the home run. 
He's not going to hit a home run

1898
01:59:35,160 --> 01:59:36,800
for you. 
He definitely could be hitting a

1899
01:59:36,800 --> 01:59:41,040
double or triple. 
And I, I think it like I'm, I'm 

1900
01:59:41,040 --> 01:59:44,680
really trying to look at this in
an unbiased way since I, I 

1901
01:59:44,680 --> 01:59:47,480
really think he's not that great
of a rusher anymore. 

1902
01:59:47,920 --> 01:59:52,080
I think it just might not matter
on the Saints because all the 

1903
01:59:52,080 --> 01:59:55,560
work is going to go to him. 
So agree with you that the 

1904
01:59:55,560 --> 01:59:59,760
ceiling is limited. 
But where he was going in 

1905
01:59:59,760 --> 02:00:03,840
drafts, yeah, where he was going
in drafts was late enough that 

1906
02:00:04,400 --> 02:00:08,040
he could be a really good pick 
for bestball as long as he's 

1907
02:00:08,040 --> 02:00:12,040
able to to hang on and. 
Because I mean, really your your

1908
02:00:12,040 --> 02:00:16,120
only real concern other than 
like injury and him breaking 

1909
02:00:16,120 --> 02:00:21,520
down, you know, or, or just 
becoming so inefficient that 

1910
02:00:21,520 --> 02:00:26,160
they have to do something else 
is that Henry Miller like comes 

1911
02:00:26,160 --> 02:00:31,040
on or like, because as much as 
as much as I think they're going

1912
02:00:31,040 --> 02:00:33,960
to keep Tayson involved in this 
offense, I don't think that 

1913
02:00:34,280 --> 02:00:36,680
Tayson's ever going to be a 
monster volume kind of guy. 

1914
02:00:36,680 --> 02:00:38,880
He's going to get a lot of 
rushing volume for a tight end, 

1915
02:00:39,040 --> 02:00:42,880
you know, But like Taysom's not 
getting 12 carries a week, 

1916
02:00:43,160 --> 02:00:45,480
right? 
Like I don't think that's 

1917
02:00:45,480 --> 02:00:48,200
happening. 
And so I just think there's all 

1918
02:00:48,200 --> 02:00:53,480
this running back work to be had
and there's really no one to 

1919
02:00:53,480 --> 02:00:56,520
take it from him. 
So that's that's the way that I 

1920
02:00:56,520 --> 02:01:02,800
see him being pretty good. 
That that even as the 

1921
02:01:03,200 --> 02:01:06,560
potentially the clients as an 
older back right throughout the 

1922
02:01:06,560 --> 02:01:12,080
drags on NFL season, that it it 
it it just doesn't matter. 

1923
02:01:12,720 --> 02:01:15,520
Yeah, I think, I mean, if we 
were going to guess how his 

1924
02:01:15,520 --> 02:01:19,280
chart looks 8 weeks from now, I 
would bet you his bubble's 

1925
02:01:19,280 --> 02:01:24,120
smaller and I'd bet you it's a 
tiny bit to the left, but it's 

1926
02:01:24,120 --> 02:01:27,560
probably not going below this 15
to 20 expected fantasy point 

1927
02:01:27,560 --> 02:01:31,440
range, which that's to me, if 
you like, if you showed me the 

1928
02:01:31,440 --> 02:01:34,920
future and we got to, you know, 
redo basketball drafts and 

1929
02:01:34,920 --> 02:01:38,080
you're like, it's Week 8. 
Alvin Kamaro's in the 15 to 20 

1930
02:01:38,080 --> 02:01:41,600
expected fantasy point range. 
I'd be like, damn it, all right,

1931
02:01:41,600 --> 02:01:43,680
I guess I'm clicking this guy 
like, I don't want to do it. 

1932
02:01:44,240 --> 02:01:45,760
Got to do it right? 
Right. 

1933
02:01:46,240 --> 02:01:48,560
No, that makes sense. 
That does make sense. 

1934
02:01:50,160 --> 02:01:54,440
Another guy who as far as 
efficiency is concerned I could 

1935
02:01:54,440 --> 02:01:56,680
see going in the opposite 
direction of Kamara. 

1936
02:01:57,600 --> 02:02:01,080
But another guy just getting an 
absolute insane amount of work 

1937
02:02:01,280 --> 02:02:05,680
is Breece Hall almost cresting 
this 20 expected fantasy points 

1938
02:02:05,680 --> 02:02:09,160
threshold. 
Now, he wasn't terribly 

1939
02:02:09,160 --> 02:02:10,760
inefficient. 
You can see he's you know, he's 

1940
02:02:10,800 --> 02:02:15,840
right about that expectation. 
I think a big part of that too 

1941
02:02:15,840 --> 02:02:18,520
was they were playing a really 
good 49ers defense. 

1942
02:02:18,520 --> 02:02:21,840
Like I haven't I haven't seen 
the success rate stuff for him 

1943
02:02:21,880 --> 02:02:23,080
yet. 
I don't know if you can pull 

1944
02:02:23,080 --> 02:02:25,400
that up. 
But I mean, there are a lot of 

1945
02:02:25,400 --> 02:02:28,360
runs where the 49ers are just 
blowing it up in the backfield. 

1946
02:02:28,360 --> 02:02:32,520
They're at the line of scrimmage
and they're, and I mean, as a 

1947
02:02:32,520 --> 02:02:36,360
guy who who really enjoy I, I 
love watching Bruce Hall, like 

1948
02:02:36,520 --> 02:02:38,240
he's one of my favorite players 
to root for. 

1949
02:02:38,240 --> 02:02:41,720
I wish I had more of him. 
Like I got overweight, but like 

1950
02:02:41,880 --> 02:02:43,720
he's going, you know, so high in
drafts. 

1951
02:02:43,720 --> 02:02:45,640
It's hard to get that overweight
on a guy. 

1952
02:02:47,800 --> 02:02:52,920
But man, he there were a couple 
plays where he was just 

1953
02:02:52,920 --> 02:02:58,240
absolutely slamming himself into
a defender like he was, he was 

1954
02:02:58,240 --> 02:03:02,200
not dying easy. 
So he was really fun to watch. 

1955
02:03:02,200 --> 02:03:05,960
I think that I think what you 
really are gonna want. 

1956
02:03:06,040 --> 02:03:09,800
Yeah, just on your question, the
advanced efficiency stuff, it 

1957
02:03:09,880 --> 02:03:13,280
it, it was bad. 
But I, I, I think we're sort of 

1958
02:03:13,280 --> 02:03:17,240
chalking that up to the, the 
team just getting dominated by 

1959
02:03:17,240 --> 02:03:19,760
the. 
Yeah, I I'm not not surprised at

1960
02:03:19,760 --> 02:03:23,640
all to see that his efficiency 
and success rate stuff is is not

1961
02:03:23,640 --> 02:03:26,000
good after that. 
I mean, that was when I was 

1962
02:03:26,000 --> 02:03:28,520
watching the game, I was, I was 
thinking like, oh, this isn't 

1963
02:03:28,520 --> 02:03:31,040
going to look good for for his 
success rate. 

1964
02:03:32,360 --> 02:03:35,400
And, and really, like, I mean, 
what we saw last year with a, a 

1965
02:03:35,400 --> 02:03:38,080
worse version of The Jets 
offensive line, Like I certainly

1966
02:03:38,080 --> 02:03:40,720
think their line has improved 
this year. 

1967
02:03:42,000 --> 02:03:45,160
He really struggled at success 
rate last year and he he really 

1968
02:03:45,160 --> 02:03:49,760
turned into more of that home 
run hitting, you know, style of 

1969
02:03:49,760 --> 02:03:51,280
back. 
His success rate was worse than 

1970
02:03:51,280 --> 02:03:54,160
it was in his rookie season, but
he just had that home run 

1971
02:03:54,160 --> 02:03:56,560
potential. 
And so I think you know, you, 

1972
02:03:56,560 --> 02:04:00,880
you just have that with Breece 
where a a big chunk of his value

1973
02:04:00,880 --> 02:04:04,320
is gonna come from those home 
run plays that he can deliver. 

1974
02:04:04,680 --> 02:04:08,320
But he also has just such a high
baseline in that he is getting 

1975
02:04:08,440 --> 02:04:12,240
so much receiving work. 
And I I mean, from watching that

1976
02:04:12,240 --> 02:04:16,960
Jets game, I, I watched every 
snap on that game and to me it 

1977
02:04:16,960 --> 02:04:20,000
looks pretty crystal clear. 
That is a hyper concentrated 

1978
02:04:20,000 --> 02:04:22,840
offense. 
It is like sure, Alan Lazard 

1979
02:04:22,840 --> 02:04:26,360
caught 2 touchdowns. 
I mean I would be 

1980
02:04:26,360 --> 02:04:29,360
extraordinarily surprised if 
that is not a high watermark for

1981
02:04:29,360 --> 02:04:31,080
Alan Lazard. 
Fantasy points for the whole 

1982
02:04:31,080 --> 02:04:32,600
season. 
Like it. 

1983
02:04:32,600 --> 02:04:35,120
It just looked like the Garrett 
Wilson and Breece Hall show. 

1984
02:04:35,640 --> 02:04:40,200
And I think that if you get a 
game where The Jets win or, or 

1985
02:04:40,200 --> 02:04:42,480
are scoring a lot of points or 
just playing an inferior 

1986
02:04:42,480 --> 02:04:48,840
opponent like it's, it's going 
to become very abundantly clear 

1987
02:04:49,200 --> 02:04:54,440
that Breece Hall and Garrett 
Wilson are extremely desirable 

1988
02:04:54,440 --> 02:04:58,440
fantasy assets. 
Like if you if you maybe guess 

1989
02:04:58,440 --> 02:05:01,560
where both of them will go in 
fantasy drafts next year after 

1990
02:05:01,560 --> 02:05:05,040
just seeing that one game 
against the 49ers, I would bet 

1991
02:05:05,040 --> 02:05:07,280
that they were both top five 
picks next year. 

1992
02:05:14,280 --> 02:05:18,720
Just so just one, we had a 
question here on the chat and 

1993
02:05:18,760 --> 02:05:21,360
I've actually, I've been doing 
some research on it. 

1994
02:05:21,400 --> 02:05:25,680
And was the Jamal Williams just 
garbage time or was he getting 

1995
02:05:25,680 --> 02:05:30,800
early work as well? 
And so I, I went in, I went into

1996
02:05:30,800 --> 02:05:33,320
the Rotavist Screener and just 
been looking at that. 

1997
02:05:33,320 --> 02:05:36,280
So Jamal Williams was actually 
playing the whole game. 

1998
02:05:36,640 --> 02:05:40,240
Like none of it was actually not
none of it. 

1999
02:05:41,040 --> 02:05:44,640
It it it wasn't like you. 
He didn't play in the first two 

2000
02:05:44,640 --> 02:05:47,640
quarters and then the four, four
quarter comes around. 

2001
02:05:47,640 --> 02:05:48,880
That's where he got all his 
touches. 

2002
02:05:48,880 --> 02:05:53,960
He was getting kind of 
consistent usage to throughout 

2003
02:05:53,960 --> 02:05:57,720
the game. 
And and So what one, I guess 

2004
02:05:57,720 --> 02:06:00,720
just to dig a little deeper on 
the Camara stuff. 

2005
02:06:01,000 --> 02:06:07,240
So the Saints run, they did run 
63 plays and then Camara was on 

2006
02:06:07,240 --> 02:06:14,720
the field for 32 of those plays.
And so I guess 32 plays. 

2007
02:06:14,720 --> 02:06:21,000
And in the context of every 
running back you played and then

2008
02:06:21,360 --> 02:06:26,320
him getting a high usage on 
those will show up highly on 

2009
02:06:26,440 --> 02:06:30,880
expected usage stuff. 
But him only being on the on the

2010
02:06:30,880 --> 02:06:34,240
field for half the snaps. 
And then I think he got 

2011
02:06:34,240 --> 02:06:40,400
something along the lines of so 
there was there was 30, there 

2012
02:06:40,400 --> 02:06:45,160
was 31 expected points around 31
and then he got 22 of those. 

2013
02:06:45,880 --> 02:06:50,120
And if they if if you get a if 
you get a bad Saints game and 

2014
02:06:50,200 --> 02:06:55,600
he's going to be a lot lower on 
that expected points and gauge. 

2015
02:06:56,440 --> 02:07:01,560
So even even adjusting for the 
before adjusting for any week 1 

2016
02:07:01,560 --> 02:07:07,600
stuff and maybe maybe he has 
split of that declines and it is

2017
02:07:09,600 --> 02:07:12,160
right that does seem different 
two years past. 

2018
02:07:13,040 --> 02:07:15,960
Well, that makes me feel better 
because I certainly do not want 

2019
02:07:15,960 --> 02:07:19,200
this to be the year where 
Kamara's just, you know, hit 

2020
02:07:19,360 --> 02:07:23,120
double the whole year. 
But I, you know, I, I think we 

2021
02:07:23,160 --> 02:07:25,200
try, really. 
For two hours and 7 minutes in 

2022
02:07:25,280 --> 02:07:30,640
the podcast to get that one off.
We, we, we try really hard to 

2023
02:07:30,640 --> 02:07:33,480
not, you know, be take locked 
and we, we want to be able to 

2024
02:07:33,480 --> 02:07:35,320
adjust our priors with new 
information. 

2025
02:07:36,080 --> 02:07:39,040
And, you know, a big part of the
thesis on Kamara was like, Hey, 

2026
02:07:39,040 --> 02:07:42,160
over the course of the season, 
this old inefficient back is not

2027
02:07:42,160 --> 02:07:43,400
going to be able to hang on to 
it. 

2028
02:07:44,720 --> 02:07:48,920
But I, I want to like leave my, 
you know, leave myself open to 

2029
02:07:48,920 --> 02:07:52,040
adjusting my priors. 
If just, hey, the offense is 

2030
02:07:52,040 --> 02:07:53,960
better this year and he's 
getting lots of work. 

2031
02:07:53,960 --> 02:07:58,160
But I, I think the the thesis of
Hey, this might not be what we 

2032
02:07:58,160 --> 02:08:01,560
get the whole year. 
Still seems reasonable to me. 

2033
02:08:01,560 --> 02:08:03,680
So I'm glad to glad to hear that
from you. 

2034
02:08:05,520 --> 02:08:09,360
Yeah, yeah, top, top, top tier, 
some top tier coat there. 

2035
02:08:09,720 --> 02:08:11,960
And but that was that was a 
great question from, from 

2036
02:08:11,960 --> 02:08:14,520
historical anomalies. 
I'm I'm glad they asked it. 

2037
02:08:16,680 --> 02:08:23,440
A guy who you know seemed to get
more work than his backfield 

2038
02:08:23,440 --> 02:08:25,960
mate. 
Kind of kind of starting to look

2039
02:08:25,960 --> 02:08:29,960
like the one A1B situation, but 
I'm curious on your opinion of 

2040
02:08:29,960 --> 02:08:33,200
if this is trend that's going to
continue or if it was just a 

2041
02:08:33,200 --> 02:08:36,600
blip on the Week 1 radar and 
that's Tony Pollard versus Taj 

2042
02:08:36,600 --> 02:08:38,040
Spears. 
What do you think about that 

2043
02:08:38,040 --> 02:08:42,840
backfield? 
So they were pretty they were 

2044
02:08:42,840 --> 02:08:50,160
actually a lot closer in in sort
of snap share than than expected

2045
02:08:50,160 --> 02:08:56,880
points. 
And so the use the useful 

2046
02:08:57,320 --> 02:08:58,840
actually they're pretty close 
all around. 

2047
02:08:58,840 --> 02:09:03,320
So useful snaps for Tony 
Pollard, 48%, useful snaps for 

2048
02:09:03,320 --> 02:09:08,760
Spears, 38%. 
And then 12 1/2 expected points 

2049
02:09:08,760 --> 02:09:14,360
for Pollard, 8.1 for Spears. 
And then the coach Callahan 

2050
02:09:14,360 --> 02:09:18,120
says, actually I wanted those 
guys to be a lot closer. 

2051
02:09:19,320 --> 02:09:26,360
And that kind of suggests to me 
that, well, when you look at the

2052
02:09:26,360 --> 02:09:33,120
points for Pollard, he had, he 
had 5.5 expected point points 

2053
02:09:33,120 --> 02:09:36,280
over expected from touchdowns. 
So it's basically sort of scored

2054
02:09:36,280 --> 02:09:38,680
a touchdown that he was not 
expected to score. 

2055
02:09:39,400 --> 02:09:43,880
And and then some negative stuff
that seems that's probably small

2056
02:09:43,880 --> 02:09:48,960
sample for Spears. 
So I think if you're just 

2057
02:09:48,960 --> 02:09:53,160
looking at the points you're 
you're maybe and you're looking 

2058
02:09:53,160 --> 02:09:58,520
at the carries you are you're 
maybe putting too much you're 

2059
02:09:58,520 --> 02:10:00,880
maybe thinking that they're 
further apart than they are. 

2060
02:10:01,240 --> 02:10:05,240
I still I to me that looks a lot
closer to something that will be

2061
02:10:05,240 --> 02:10:11,320
a 6040 split throughout the year
and now and some of the the 

2062
02:10:11,360 --> 02:10:14,520
Spears hope for me was that he 
would eventually flip Pollard 

2063
02:10:14,960 --> 02:10:19,320
and certainly didn't get see any
sign of that or any inkling that

2064
02:10:19,320 --> 02:10:23,080
that might happen. 
And this season in week 1, but 

2065
02:10:23,560 --> 02:10:28,680
in yeah, certainly not I'm I'm 
not panicking on Spears and as 

2066
02:10:28,800 --> 02:10:32,320
well I'm I'm more I'm honestly, 
I'm more concerned about the 

2067
02:10:32,320 --> 02:10:37,960
offense being bad for Spears and
Pollard as well, frankly, than I

2068
02:10:37,960 --> 02:10:40,680
am. 
I am about am powered just like 

2069
02:10:40,840 --> 02:10:43,680
boat racing him in the running 
back of the race. 

2070
02:10:45,160 --> 02:10:48,480
And then in a similar vein, what
do you think about the Chase 

2071
02:10:48,480 --> 02:10:52,880
Brown, Zac Moss stuff? 
Or we just are we kind of 

2072
02:10:52,880 --> 02:10:57,240
chalking up this Bengals Week 1 
to the Bengals were disgustingly

2073
02:10:57,240 --> 02:11:00,000
bad Week one. 
We probably can't have too many 

2074
02:11:00,000 --> 02:11:05,560
takeaways from it. 
And I don't know, I, I'm, I'm 

2075
02:11:05,560 --> 02:11:08,680
more hesitant to do that for 
that situation. 

2076
02:11:08,920 --> 02:11:14,680
And so there you have you have a
useful snap split of 51 for Zac 

2077
02:11:14,680 --> 02:11:21,720
Moss, 31% Chase Brown, 12 round 
numbers, 12 for expected points 

2078
02:11:21,720 --> 02:11:24,080
for Zac Moss, 5 1/2 for Chase 
Brown. 

2079
02:11:24,880 --> 02:11:31,680
And then it's not like Zac Moss 
played terribly. 

2080
02:11:31,680 --> 02:11:35,800
He played fine and Chase Brown 
didn't have this amazing game 

2081
02:11:36,520 --> 02:11:38,600
and. 
Zac Moss did have the goal line 

2082
02:11:38,600 --> 02:11:41,680
carry too, which is doing a lot 
of work in those expected 

2083
02:11:41,680 --> 02:11:43,400
points. 
So if you if you pull that out, 

2084
02:11:43,440 --> 02:11:46,680
they're right about the same, 
but but Moss did get more of the

2085
02:11:47,640 --> 02:11:49,880
to work. 
Right, he got more routes, he 

2086
02:11:49,880 --> 02:11:52,920
got more rush attempts he got he
got three times that the the 

2087
02:11:52,920 --> 02:11:55,440
rush attempts and he got more 
routes. 

2088
02:11:56,240 --> 02:12:03,880
And so if you paid the cheap 
price for chase brand of like 10

2089
02:12:03,880 --> 02:12:08,800
through 12 rounds and I think I 
think you're you're still live. 

2090
02:12:09,440 --> 02:12:13,480
Well, I'm not saying that you're
not live if if if you paid much 

2091
02:12:13,480 --> 02:12:18,360
more than that and but you're 
still alive to have a yeah, 

2092
02:12:19,640 --> 02:12:23,640
maybe to have this season work 
out in your favor. 

2093
02:12:23,960 --> 02:12:27,240
And but expect the expense of 
Chase Brown where he's going way

2094
02:12:27,240 --> 02:12:30,640
ahead of Zach Moss. 
Like just looks flat wrong to me

2095
02:12:31,320 --> 02:12:33,800
unfortunately. 
Yeah. 

2096
02:12:35,960 --> 02:12:39,880
There's and if the Bengals play 
better, I'd much rather play 

2097
02:12:39,880 --> 02:12:43,080
that Zach Moss, unfortunately, 
than that Chase Brown. 

2098
02:12:44,960 --> 02:12:46,800
So here's a here's a fun one for
you. 

2099
02:12:47,360 --> 02:12:51,400
James Conner and Josh Jacobs are
neck and neck in their expected 

2100
02:12:51,400 --> 02:12:55,560
fantasy points and and in both 
how they did it too, in their 

2101
02:12:55,840 --> 02:12:58,200
expected rushing and expected 
receiving points. 

2102
02:12:59,000 --> 02:13:02,760
Which of these backs would you 
prefer for the rest of the 

2103
02:13:02,760 --> 02:13:04,680
season? 
Price agnostic? 

2104
02:13:04,680 --> 02:13:09,160
You can just pick one. 
And I mean, it feels a little 

2105
02:13:09,160 --> 02:13:16,600
easier to to say and James 
Connor and just because I like 

2106
02:13:16,600 --> 02:13:18,880
him better. 
And but some of that is just 

2107
02:13:18,880 --> 02:13:21,800
because like I was I was 
clicking him more because he was

2108
02:13:21,800 --> 02:13:27,600
cheaper, right? 
And like that that that's that's

2109
02:13:28,280 --> 02:13:31,480
my preference. 
I mean, rest of season. 

2110
02:13:31,960 --> 02:13:36,240
And can I cheat and say that 
with Jordan Love getting injured

2111
02:13:36,240 --> 02:13:40,400
and missing some games? 
That is, that's the easy. 

2112
02:13:40,400 --> 02:13:43,600
That's the easy out. 
But yeah, I mean, I think. 

2113
02:13:43,920 --> 02:13:47,160
It's it's probably slight 
preference Jacobs if you ignore 

2114
02:13:47,160 --> 02:13:51,360
that stuff and but you're get 
you're getting much cheaper 

2115
02:13:51,360 --> 02:13:54,320
prices on James Conner for most 
of that for pretty much all the 

2116
02:13:54,320 --> 02:13:56,440
offseason. 
Oh, yeah, substantially cheaper.

2117
02:13:57,120 --> 02:13:59,680
The other thing is they both 
have, you know, rookie running 

2118
02:13:59,680 --> 02:14:03,440
backs that might, might be 
nipping at their heels in the 

2119
02:14:03,440 --> 02:14:06,400
future. 
You know, where you've got 

2120
02:14:06,400 --> 02:14:11,520
Benson who who did get a drive. 
You know, there was now it's not

2121
02:14:11,520 --> 02:14:14,600
like Benson was the only other 
running back they had in the 

2122
02:14:14,600 --> 02:14:16,480
game. 
They had Mari D Mercado as well.

2123
02:14:16,480 --> 02:14:21,440
And so, you know, you're not I I
think we still got a long way to

2124
02:14:21,440 --> 02:14:26,000
go for James Conner, seating 
control of this backfield and 

2125
02:14:26,000 --> 02:14:29,560
for Jacobs, you know, Marshawn 
Lloyd is still injured. 

2126
02:14:29,560 --> 02:14:34,680
She had gosh, the name is 
escaping me of the the guy they 

2127
02:14:34,680 --> 02:14:39,000
called up. 
But I mean, the fact that it is 

2128
02:14:39,000 --> 02:14:42,320
a question though, for who do 
you want rest of season? 

2129
02:14:42,320 --> 02:14:45,440
And we can pretend Jordan Love 
is not injured between James 

2130
02:14:45,440 --> 02:14:49,040
Conner, Josh Jacobs just kind of
illustrates like, hey, This is 

2131
02:14:49,040 --> 02:14:52,400
why we don't draft the backs of 
the dead zone because there's a 

2132
02:14:52,400 --> 02:14:55,560
guy that's going to do the exact
same thing and he's going 

2133
02:14:55,560 --> 02:15:00,360
multiple rounds later. 
So the Josh Jacobs, like fading 

2134
02:15:00,360 --> 02:15:04,400
Josh Jacobs makes all the sense.
Like Kenneth Walker or Josh 

2135
02:15:04,400 --> 02:15:07,440
Jacobs, I don't know, but you 
paid a lot more for Josh Jacobs 

2136
02:15:07,440 --> 02:15:09,240
than Kenneth Walker. 
You're like there. 

2137
02:15:09,360 --> 02:15:11,560
I mean, there is a point in 
drafts where people were taking 

2138
02:15:11,560 --> 02:15:16,960
Josh Jacobs like, you know, in 
the like 30s, like it's just 

2139
02:15:17,600 --> 02:15:22,880
just absurd. 
So yeah, looking looking like a 

2140
02:15:22,880 --> 02:15:25,840
reasonable fade there. 
I'm just purely cost based, you 

2141
02:15:25,840 --> 02:15:27,480
know, not saying that Jacob's 
right, right? 

2142
02:15:27,480 --> 02:15:29,920
Due to ever. 
Sport fan to play fantasy is 

2143
02:15:29,920 --> 02:15:33,240
like if I can get if I can get 
the same profile way later, I 

2144
02:15:33,240 --> 02:15:36,280
take the yeah, I take the way 
later 1 Yep. 

2145
02:15:38,720 --> 02:15:40,520
Anyone else here or should we 
move on to tight? 

2146
02:15:40,520 --> 02:15:45,920
Ends and no, I think I think 
we've we've we've probably 

2147
02:15:45,920 --> 02:15:48,680
covered at least half the 
running backs in the player pool

2148
02:15:48,720 --> 02:15:51,360
so. 
Yeah, we we're being very 

2149
02:15:51,360 --> 02:15:53,640
thorough. 
I mean, it is, it is week 1, so,

2150
02:15:53,880 --> 02:15:55,240
right. 
It's definitely going to be one 

2151
02:15:55,240 --> 02:15:58,360
of our longer shows. 
Right, a lot more to talk about.

2152
02:15:58,720 --> 02:16:05,680
Yeah. 
So tight end and the big and the

2153
02:16:05,680 --> 02:16:10,720
big end debate this year is, is 
elite tight end dead? 

2154
02:16:11,480 --> 02:16:14,800
This we believe this is a very 
helpful chart and sort of 

2155
02:16:14,800 --> 02:16:20,200
helping to answer that question.
And so on the, on the bar chart,

2156
02:16:20,560 --> 02:16:25,000
the, the, the dark green and no 
the, the green, that's the 

2157
02:16:25,000 --> 02:16:28,720
percentage of dropbacks that the
tight end was running a route. 

2158
02:16:29,440 --> 02:16:33,760
It's pretty self-explanatory and
targets per run. 

2159
02:16:34,680 --> 02:16:37,160
And what percentage of those 
routes were they getting 

2160
02:16:37,160 --> 02:16:40,160
targeted and and then how far 
down the field where they're 

2161
02:16:40,160 --> 02:16:44,320
getting targeted with the A dot?
SO receiving tight ends, we want

2162
02:16:44,320 --> 02:16:47,240
them to be on on running around 
for all the drop backs. 

2163
02:16:47,559 --> 02:16:50,320
We want them to be getting lots 
of targets and we want those 

2164
02:16:50,320 --> 02:16:53,280
targets to be down the field. 
So just for example, Tyler 

2165
02:16:53,280 --> 02:16:58,680
Conklin, you do get all the 
routes with just a 7% targets 

2166
02:16:58,680 --> 02:17:01,600
per run and two and a half a 
dot. 

2167
02:17:02,080 --> 02:17:05,280
So like that, that's like 
somebody who's like starting, he

2168
02:17:05,280 --> 02:17:07,799
is starting tight end. 
He is the starter. 

2169
02:17:08,480 --> 02:17:13,320
And but This is why he was much,
much cheaper than the rest of 

2170
02:17:13,320 --> 02:17:16,000
the guys around him in his 
chart. 

2171
02:17:16,040 --> 02:17:19,000
And, and, and why frankly, I 
wasn't even drafting him. 

2172
02:17:19,440 --> 02:17:23,879
And at that price, because like 
you, you don't, there's no 

2173
02:17:23,879 --> 02:17:26,680
upside here. 
Yeah, like when you when you get

2174
02:17:26,680 --> 02:17:27,799
these guys as. 
You can. 

2175
02:17:28,360 --> 02:17:30,600
Yeah, when you get these guys 
that are running all the routes 

2176
02:17:30,600 --> 02:17:34,000
and have like 7 targets per 
route run and extremely low A 

2177
02:17:34,000 --> 02:17:38,639
dot like, you know, your Tyler 
Conklin or your, your K dot and 

2178
02:17:38,840 --> 02:17:42,799
or your, your Dalton Kincaid, 
like those are just guys that 

2179
02:17:42,799 --> 02:17:44,760
don't really belong on a fantasy
roster. 

2180
02:17:44,760 --> 02:17:46,959
Sorry, I had to sneak the Dalton
Kincaid dig in there. 

2181
02:17:47,959 --> 02:17:52,120
But but really, I mean, yeah, 
they're, they're not exciting 

2182
02:17:52,120 --> 02:17:53,760
tight ends. 
So it's very much upside. 

2183
02:17:53,840 --> 02:17:57,559
I mean, I think that in 
basketball, those tight ends do 

2184
02:17:57,559 --> 02:18:00,879
have a place like the the 
Conklins and Auten's are are 

2185
02:18:00,879 --> 02:18:03,760
innings eaters, just like Zeke 
and Justice Hill are innings 

2186
02:18:03,760 --> 02:18:05,600
eaters at the running back 
position, right? 

2187
02:18:05,959 --> 02:18:10,040
That's what Tyler Conklin and 
Kate Auten are to tight end. 

2188
02:18:11,879 --> 02:18:14,559
I think with Auten too, you can 
make the argument that, oh, he's

2189
02:18:14,559 --> 02:18:17,320
a young player and he's 
literally out there 100% of 

2190
02:18:17,320 --> 02:18:19,559
snaps. 
Like, maybe there's a chance 

2191
02:18:19,559 --> 02:18:22,680
that, you know, he continues to 
develop and does something 

2192
02:18:22,680 --> 02:18:26,280
special. 
But yeah, we might. 

2193
02:18:26,559 --> 02:18:31,959
Catch 35 yard passes passes. 
But the. 

2194
02:18:32,680 --> 02:18:37,400
The the, the elite tight end 
thesis, just just just to make 

2195
02:18:37,400 --> 02:18:40,280
the, the hammer to point home 
here is that some of these guys,

2196
02:18:40,440 --> 02:18:43,840
for example, Trey McBride is 
going to run a really high 

2197
02:18:43,840 --> 02:18:47,240
percentage of routes and he's 
going to get targeted a lot on 

2198
02:18:47,240 --> 02:18:51,280
those routes down the field. 
That to me, that kind of usage 

2199
02:18:51,280 --> 02:18:54,000
week 1 is suggestive of like 
that. 

2200
02:18:54,000 --> 02:18:56,920
That's very likely to be an 
elite tight end hit. 

2201
02:18:57,480 --> 02:19:01,280
And even though you prayed a lot
more from McBride than than 

2202
02:19:01,280 --> 02:19:05,120
Tyler Conklin, that he has the 
potential to score so many more 

2203
02:19:05,120 --> 02:19:10,520
points than McBride and, and, 
and, and probably actually not 

2204
02:19:10,520 --> 02:19:14,400
McBride, Conklin and a lot of 
these other tight ends that that

2205
02:19:14,400 --> 02:19:17,360
that can get you the the win. 
And now people listen to this 

2206
02:19:17,360 --> 02:19:18,799
podcast, understand that 
concept. 

2207
02:19:19,719 --> 02:19:24,120
But just helpful to introduce 
the yeah, people in two hours 

2208
02:19:24,120 --> 02:19:26,719
and 20 minutes definitely 
understand why, yeah, why 

2209
02:19:26,719 --> 02:19:32,799
McBride doing that was good. 
And so, and then the other, the 

2210
02:19:32,799 --> 02:19:37,200
other one that's kind of an 
enigma here is called Pitts and 

2211
02:19:37,200 --> 02:19:43,000
who did run 100% of routes, but 
just 11% targets per run, which 

2212
02:19:43,480 --> 02:19:47,760
that, that that's really low for
him, kind of like in the context

2213
02:19:47,760 --> 02:19:52,480
of his career and the A dot. 
And then the A dot is it's a 

2214
02:19:52,480 --> 02:19:56,320
bit, I'm beginning to think that
the Falcons beat might not be 

2215
02:19:56,320 --> 02:20:01,360
very good at her job because 
none of this is kind of jiving 

2216
02:20:01,360 --> 02:20:03,760
with what they said, except for 
the Reds. 

2217
02:20:04,200 --> 02:20:10,000
I'm, I'm, I'm concerned about 
the targets per run as long as 

2218
02:20:10,000 --> 02:20:13,040
Kirk Cousins is the quarterback.
Yeah, I. 

2219
02:20:14,160 --> 02:20:18,240
Because I don't think I think 
he's going to do the the dump 

2220
02:20:18,240 --> 02:20:22,840
off passes to Ray Ray McLeod 
offense as long as he's playing 

2221
02:20:22,840 --> 02:20:27,360
as he's out there and you are 
you going to say that maybe the 

2222
02:20:27,560 --> 02:20:30,600
the the Steelers just took pits 
away. 

2223
02:20:31,560 --> 02:20:34,320
No, no, I was going to say that 
I think the targets per route 

2224
02:20:34,320 --> 02:20:37,480
run is really a function of the 
Kirk Cousins, you know, like, 

2225
02:20:37,480 --> 02:20:40,920
hey, this is a non functional 
password that we have back here.

2226
02:20:41,320 --> 02:20:45,800
Just because he's not healthy 
and he can't like he he was 

2227
02:20:45,960 --> 02:20:49,320
clearly doing the stuff that he 
felt that he could do, which was

2228
02:20:49,360 --> 02:20:52,800
let me dump it down to Raven 
McLeod over and over and over 

2229
02:20:52,800 --> 02:20:55,120
again. 
And so. 

2230
02:20:56,120 --> 02:21:01,760
And so some people think that, 
oh, that the tight end is 

2231
02:21:01,760 --> 02:21:05,840
supposed to be the the 
quarterback's friend, but he 

2232
02:21:05,840 --> 02:21:10,960
really did have like a like. 
So it's a it's a 7A dot, which I

2233
02:21:10,960 --> 02:21:23,280
guess is, is is not terrible. 
And so, yeah, and but and with 

2234
02:21:23,280 --> 02:21:29,000
with Pitts having that kind of 
9A dot AM he he he probably is 

2235
02:21:29,000 --> 02:21:32,960
not the type of player that is 
is going to take the the the two

2236
02:21:32,960 --> 02:21:36,280
yard hitch and then try and get 
yak like McLeod will. 

2237
02:21:38,160 --> 02:21:41,600
Yeah, I'm, I'm not. 
I mean as far as Pitts, I think 

2238
02:21:41,600 --> 02:21:44,600
the ceiling is still very 
available. 

2239
02:21:44,600 --> 02:21:48,360
Like the 100% routes thing is 
extremely bullish to me. 

2240
02:21:49,120 --> 02:21:51,120
Yeah. 
And I, I think that we know the 

2241
02:21:51,120 --> 02:21:55,920
talent is there for him. 
So you've got a lot of outs with

2242
02:21:55,920 --> 02:21:57,800
Pitts. 
You've got the outs that Cousins

2243
02:21:57,800 --> 02:21:59,840
gets healthier and becomes 
functional. 

2244
02:21:59,840 --> 02:22:04,880
And I, I mean even like an 80% 
Kirk Cousins, like he used 80% 

2245
02:22:04,880 --> 02:22:07,160
of what he was last year when he
was healthy like. 

2246
02:22:07,240 --> 02:22:08,600
Right, if he can just learn to 
plan. 

2247
02:22:09,160 --> 02:22:13,800
I think Kyle Pitts is like very 
live for Titan one overall with 

2248
02:22:13,800 --> 02:22:18,040
that right, like hundred 100% 
routes, Kyle Pitts with like 80%

2249
02:22:18,040 --> 02:22:20,800
Kirk Cousins, like so the 
ceiling is still there. 

2250
02:22:20,840 --> 02:22:24,120
I think that if you're in a 
redraft league and you want to 

2251
02:22:24,120 --> 02:22:28,640
take a big cut, like granted, he
did score a touchdown this last 

2252
02:22:28,640 --> 02:22:30,640
week. 
So and Titan was so putrid that 

2253
02:22:30,640 --> 02:22:32,120
maybe someone's not willing to 
move him. 

2254
02:22:32,120 --> 02:22:35,680
But if you got someone that 
thinks they're they're being sly

2255
02:22:35,680 --> 02:22:38,560
and getting one over by by 
selling Kyle Pitts high quote, 

2256
02:22:38,560 --> 02:22:41,280
UN quote, maybe you can go and 
and look for something. 

2257
02:22:42,280 --> 02:22:46,400
So there's the issue, I guess 
particularly in redraft like in 

2258
02:22:46,440 --> 02:22:55,040
in for example, FFPC redraft 
tight end premium, it's on even 

2259
02:22:55,040 --> 02:22:59,400
in that format, it's hard to, 
it's hard to like that's a hard 

2260
02:22:59,400 --> 02:23:01,400
decision to decide to start 
pits. 

2261
02:23:01,720 --> 02:23:03,840
Right. 
It's hard to start them right 

2262
02:23:03,840 --> 02:23:05,360
now. 
Yeah, I don't, I don't think 

2263
02:23:05,360 --> 02:23:10,160
that you're, you're just you've 
got a lot of ways that it could 

2264
02:23:10,160 --> 02:23:13,800
work for you. 
But it's probably too early to 

2265
02:23:13,800 --> 02:23:16,360
panic, right? 
It's it's too early to. 

2266
02:23:16,440 --> 02:23:20,280
Panic evidence that the Falcons 
have shown that like, we know, 

2267
02:23:20,960 --> 02:23:25,040
we know Kirk Cousins is bad when
they take the rookie early, when

2268
02:23:25,040 --> 02:23:27,320
they they, they sit them in 
preseason. 

2269
02:23:27,320 --> 02:23:31,600
We've seen enough. 
And that, that does suggest to 

2270
02:23:31,600 --> 02:23:35,240
me that there's like it's a, 
it's a higher bench likelihood 

2271
02:23:35,240 --> 02:23:41,560
than you might think. 
Yeah, the so yeah, I'm I'm less 

2272
02:23:41,560 --> 02:23:45,160
concerned about Kyle Pitts and 
more concerned about the Falcons

2273
02:23:45,280 --> 02:23:49,800
offense systemically as far as 
let's just we're gonna we're 

2274
02:23:49,800 --> 02:23:52,920
gonna rapid fire through elite 
tight ends and you tell me if 

2275
02:23:52,920 --> 02:23:56,440
you're worried or not worried. 
OK, so Kyle Pitts. 

2276
02:23:58,000 --> 02:23:59,880
Worried. 
George Kibble. 

2277
02:24:01,040 --> 02:24:03,040
Not worried. 
Trey McBride. 

2278
02:24:03,840 --> 02:24:05,920
Not worried. 
Travis Kelsey. 

2279
02:24:07,600 --> 02:24:09,480
Honestly not worried. 
Me neither. 

2280
02:24:09,560 --> 02:24:13,480
Yeah, Dalton Kincaid. 
A little worried. 

2281
02:24:13,720 --> 02:24:18,600
And I think, I think I've seen 
some stuff where Dalton Kincaid 

2282
02:24:18,600 --> 02:24:22,480
was getting like using his own 
and he was getting his own 

2283
02:24:22,480 --> 02:24:25,320
coverage and all these defenders
were converging on them. 

2284
02:24:26,040 --> 02:24:33,320
And like the prior for Dalton 
Kincaid being bad was already 

2285
02:24:33,320 --> 02:24:37,720
kind of strong. 
And it being it being so easy 

2286
02:24:37,720 --> 02:24:44,880
for an offense to double Kincaid
and maybe maybe the defenses are

2287
02:24:44,880 --> 02:24:48,280
just successful at taking them 
away all year and definitely 

2288
02:24:48,280 --> 02:24:55,480
think there's a concern there. 
Yeah, I'm, I mean, I, I 

2289
02:24:55,480 --> 02:24:58,000
definitely drafted some Dalton 
Kincaid because I didn't want to

2290
02:24:58,000 --> 02:25:02,000
be too overconfident in my 
thesis that this guy stunk, but 

2291
02:25:04,240 --> 02:25:07,680
got to got to say it does. 
I'm I'm feeling much more 

2292
02:25:07,680 --> 02:25:10,720
confident in my assessment that 
this he's not a special player. 

2293
02:25:11,720 --> 02:25:13,800
Right. 
You have the prior there and 

2294
02:25:13,800 --> 02:25:17,040
then you have like it's a 
confirmation of the prior. 

2295
02:25:17,600 --> 02:25:24,600
It's, it's, it's not a, it's not
a short case yet, no, but it's 

2296
02:25:25,640 --> 02:25:28,360
the more we see of that, the 
more concern. 

2297
02:25:29,000 --> 02:25:33,360
And then I think you have you 
have a you have some interesting

2298
02:25:33,360 --> 02:25:39,840
guys here, for example, Hunter 
Henry and definitely looks 

2299
02:25:39,840 --> 02:25:44,600
better than the the K dot and 
Tyler Conklin types and where 

2300
02:25:44,800 --> 02:25:49,640
similar routes and similar like 
and then better, better target 

2301
02:25:49,640 --> 02:25:54,960
rate, better a dot. 
And right now not the most 

2302
02:25:54,960 --> 02:25:58,560
functional offense would hope 
that Drake May is somebody who 

2303
02:25:58,560 --> 02:26:02,800
could unlock him. 
And but him getting this high, 

2304
02:26:02,800 --> 02:26:06,120
yeah, high route share high 
target stuff is definitely 

2305
02:26:06,120 --> 02:26:08,480
helpful. 
And then Kobe Parkinson's. 

2306
02:26:08,480 --> 02:26:10,680
Sorry, go ahead. 
I don't know if you watched the 

2307
02:26:10,760 --> 02:26:14,560
the Patriots game, but did you 
see the target that Jacoby threw

2308
02:26:14,560 --> 02:26:18,680
Hunter Henry in the end zone? 
It was a atrocious pass, but 

2309
02:26:19,000 --> 02:26:22,200
Hunter Henry made a great 
defensive play to prevent it 

2310
02:26:22,200 --> 02:26:25,320
from being an exception. 
And a better throwing ball is a 

2311
02:26:25,320 --> 02:26:29,040
touchdown there. 
Like, I, I think Hunter Henry, I

2312
02:26:29,040 --> 02:26:32,760
mean, I, I really, I, I go back 
to like the Hunter Henry that we

2313
02:26:32,760 --> 02:26:36,920
got when he was a Charger. 
And like, there was legitimate 

2314
02:26:36,920 --> 02:26:39,520
excitement that he might be the 
next elite tight end when he 

2315
02:26:39,520 --> 02:26:41,560
came out. 
And like, we've got a much 

2316
02:26:41,560 --> 02:26:44,000
larger sample now where he's 
like, he's probably not going to

2317
02:26:44,000 --> 02:26:48,920
be elite elite, but man, I 
could, if Drake May is good, I 

2318
02:26:48,920 --> 02:26:52,120
could see Hunter Henry putting 
up more fantasy points than 

2319
02:26:52,120 --> 02:26:54,560
Dalton Kincaid this season. 
Like, I wouldn't be all that 

2320
02:26:54,560 --> 02:26:59,000
terribly surprised by that, 
Yeah. 

2321
02:27:00,800 --> 02:27:07,840
That is, that is, that is pretty
unfortunate, but definitely what

2322
02:27:08,520 --> 02:27:10,640
what we've seen. 
I, I mean, I don't, I don't want

2323
02:27:10,640 --> 02:27:15,960
to overreact to the poor per 
outing for Kincaid, but it, it, 

2324
02:27:15,960 --> 02:27:19,840
it's, it's not feeling great. 
I guess if you're going to make 

2325
02:27:19,840 --> 02:27:24,720
a positive case for Kincaid is 
that we were told he he wouldn't

2326
02:27:24,720 --> 02:27:28,000
have this 80% or close to 80% 
Reg share. 

2327
02:27:28,760 --> 02:27:32,320
So you're definitely encouraged 
by the routes like it's not this

2328
02:27:32,360 --> 02:27:36,640
like gross split and that we 
feared might happen. 

2329
02:27:36,640 --> 02:27:43,440
So you got 83% of the routes and
but and then put the lack of 

2330
02:27:43,440 --> 02:27:48,600
targets and is definitely 
concerning especially with how 

2331
02:27:48,800 --> 02:27:55,160
bad the rest of the weapons are.
I think it's something to 

2332
02:27:55,160 --> 02:27:57,680
monitor cuz he could have a 
great week too. 

2333
02:27:57,840 --> 02:28:02,360
Like we've seen him have good 
games, but definitely, 

2334
02:28:02,360 --> 02:28:07,880
definitely concerned. 
Yeah, the, the passing down 

2335
02:28:07,880 --> 02:28:11,560
snaps or the snaps that Dawson 
knocks and Dalton Kincaid saw 

2336
02:28:12,160 --> 02:28:15,760
Kincaid 26 snaps, knocks, 18 
snaps. 

2337
02:28:17,080 --> 02:28:22,520
So not the yeah, route percent, 
Kincaid much higher route 

2338
02:28:22,520 --> 02:28:24,000
percent. 
So like if you're if you're 

2339
02:28:24,000 --> 02:28:27,480
looking for the silver lining, 
like the the cope that it, it 

2340
02:28:27,480 --> 02:28:29,040
could actually be OK for 
Kincaid. 

2341
02:28:29,440 --> 02:28:31,720
He's running lots of routes. 
He he's out there. 

2342
02:28:33,480 --> 02:28:37,120
But yeah, I, I think Dawson Knox
is very much more of a thing 

2343
02:28:37,120 --> 02:28:40,640
than than people that were high 
on Kincaid wanted to believe. 

2344
02:28:41,240 --> 02:28:45,200
And I just, I don't think that 
Dawson Kincaid is much more 

2345
02:28:45,200 --> 02:28:49,440
special than Dawson Knox. 
And so that's that's a barrier 

2346
02:28:49,440 --> 02:28:51,800
there. 
Right. 

2347
02:28:52,080 --> 02:28:56,440
And and then looking at like 
some of these guys like Hayden 

2348
02:28:56,440 --> 02:28:58,960
Hurst, it looks like, oh, should
I play Hayden Hurst? 

2349
02:28:59,680 --> 02:29:08,040
And he did get a 13% route run 
and 13.3 and A dot. 

2350
02:29:08,320 --> 02:29:13,640
So that's that's three targets 
with a 448 air yards and playing

2351
02:29:13,640 --> 02:29:18,400
the Raiders. 
And I think, I think, I think 

2352
02:29:18,400 --> 02:29:20,440
that's just gross tight end 
stuff. 

2353
02:29:21,760 --> 02:29:26,440
Yeah, I'm not not super 
interested in Hayden Hurst to to

2354
02:29:27,000 --> 02:29:29,880
quickly round out our other 
elite tight ends that you may or

2355
02:29:29,880 --> 02:29:31,760
may not be worried about Sam La 
Porta. 

2356
02:29:32,720 --> 02:29:35,400
Not worried. 
Mark. 

2357
02:29:35,400 --> 02:29:40,360
Andrews And yeah, a little 
worried. 

2358
02:29:40,640 --> 02:29:43,960
I mean, we saw, we saw, you 
should be worried, right? 

2359
02:29:43,960 --> 02:29:50,560
We saw, we saw it at the the per
game, we saw as ADP drop in, in,

2360
02:29:50,560 --> 02:29:56,000
in drops after that game. 
And there was the analysis that 

2361
02:29:56,240 --> 02:29:59,040
they had, they had the 
cornerback on them, their best 

2362
02:29:59,040 --> 02:30:01,320
cornerback on them. 
And then they double teamed them

2363
02:30:01,320 --> 02:30:03,560
a bunch. 
Like they, they made a 

2364
02:30:03,560 --> 02:30:07,080
concentrated effort to like, not
allow this amount to impact the 

2365
02:30:07,080 --> 02:30:15,400
game. 
And, and, and I think you're, 

2366
02:30:15,640 --> 02:30:19,360
you're worried from a standpoint
of like if he was a star, if 

2367
02:30:19,360 --> 02:30:24,760
this is Mark Andrews star, then 
like he should somehow find a 

2368
02:30:24,760 --> 02:30:28,160
way to still impact the game 
when, when he's needed most. 

2369
02:30:29,080 --> 02:30:32,960
And so there, there, there is a 
little bit concern there. 

2370
02:30:33,240 --> 02:30:36,680
And but then he's he also is 
getting that kind of respect 

2371
02:30:37,160 --> 02:30:41,440
and, and most teams are not 
going to be able to throw that 

2372
02:30:41,440 --> 02:30:44,040
kind of firepower at stopping 
this guy. 

2373
02:30:45,360 --> 02:30:51,640
So a little bit concerned, but 
still, still, still still kind 

2374
02:30:51,640 --> 02:30:53,800
of hopeful that you've got some 
good games. 

2375
02:30:54,360 --> 02:30:58,600
Yeah, I'm, I would say I'm less 
concerned about Mark Andrews 

2376
02:30:58,640 --> 02:31:03,760
than I am Dalton Kincaid. 
Yeah, Mark Andrews comes from 

2377
02:31:03,880 --> 02:31:07,400
for me that Isaiah likely looks 
very good. 

2378
02:31:07,400 --> 02:31:10,760
He looks like he's probably the 
third best pass catcher on the 

2379
02:31:10,760 --> 02:31:13,680
Ravens. 
And so I just think that's going

2380
02:31:13,680 --> 02:31:17,760
to, you know, they're going to 
run a lot of plays where there's

2381
02:31:17,760 --> 02:31:19,560
both Andrews and likely on the 
field. 

2382
02:31:19,760 --> 02:31:23,760
And I don't know that, you know,
likely only had what was it like

2383
02:31:23,760 --> 02:31:25,920
60 something percent of the 
snaps? 

2384
02:31:27,120 --> 02:31:29,880
And I don't know, I honestly 
couldn't tell you if we're going

2385
02:31:29,880 --> 02:31:32,560
to see that number go up or down
over the course of the season, 

2386
02:31:32,560 --> 02:31:34,520
that one. 
The other thing, the other thing

2387
02:31:34,520 --> 02:31:37,440
what likely is that he was he 
was single covered by a 

2388
02:31:37,440 --> 02:31:42,120
linebacker in the whole game. 
And so if Marc Andrews is going 

2389
02:31:42,120 --> 02:31:45,680
to be double covered and one of 
those is Trent Mcduffie and then

2390
02:31:45,720 --> 02:31:49,360
likely is going to be single 
covered by a linebacker, then 

2391
02:31:49,800 --> 02:31:51,960
that kind of is the perfect 
storm for likely. 

2392
02:31:52,640 --> 02:31:56,200
And obviously he showed out he 
looked great in that spot. 

2393
02:31:57,440 --> 02:32:04,640
But it's it's it's it that does 
feel like Thursday was a 

2394
02:32:04,640 --> 02:32:07,520
perfect, perfect storm for 
likely. 

2395
02:32:08,320 --> 02:32:12,160
And it's it's hard like maybe 
his right percentage does go up 

2396
02:32:12,200 --> 02:32:16,120
just because he's their third 
best pass catcher. 

2397
02:32:16,920 --> 02:32:21,080
And but I don't think he's going
to get something such a sweet 

2398
02:32:21,080 --> 02:32:26,080
situation again where they have 
to throw a lot and then the 

2399
02:32:26,080 --> 02:32:28,520
defense is is effectively 
ignoring him. 

2400
02:32:28,600 --> 02:32:32,040
They didn't ignore him. 
They did ask somebody to cover 

2401
02:32:32,040 --> 02:32:34,240
him, but they didn't ask their 
best player to cover. 

2402
02:32:34,760 --> 02:32:37,160
Him right? 
Yeah, that's that's well put. 

2403
02:32:38,280 --> 02:32:42,120
OK, Last elite tight end and 
yeah, this guy now falls into 

2404
02:32:42,160 --> 02:32:45,240
the elite tight end category. 
Brock Bowers, You you're 

2405
02:32:45,240 --> 02:32:45,600
worried. 
We. 

2406
02:32:45,600 --> 02:32:47,840
We. 
We we are fist pumping. 

2407
02:32:48,200 --> 02:32:51,280
Yeah, I wish I didn't get enough
Brock Bowers. 

2408
02:32:51,280 --> 02:32:56,720
Man, Just watching that game, I 
was like, oh shit, I'm about 30%

2409
02:32:57,000 --> 02:32:58,920
Brock Bowers short of a good 
time. 

2410
02:32:58,920 --> 02:33:01,200
I should have had this guy 
everywhere. 

2411
02:33:01,560 --> 02:33:07,160
I mean it, what part of it is 
this is it? 

2412
02:33:07,160 --> 02:33:10,440
It seems like such a silly thing
when you frame it this way. 

2413
02:33:10,440 --> 02:33:14,160
Like, why weren't we talking 
about it in this way during the 

2414
02:33:14,160 --> 02:33:17,480
offseason? 
But it's it's part of the thesis

2415
02:33:17,480 --> 02:33:20,880
for why elite tight end is good.
Is that the position as a whole 

2416
02:33:21,120 --> 02:33:24,880
scores such a small amount of 
points that a player that can 

2417
02:33:24,880 --> 02:33:27,840
score a high amount of points in
any given week, or especially if

2418
02:33:27,840 --> 02:33:31,520
they can do so with a decent 
amount of frequency, is such an 

2419
02:33:31,520 --> 02:33:33,760
incredible advantage at the 
position. 

2420
02:33:35,400 --> 02:33:39,000
And so you don't need to score 
that many points to be good. 

2421
02:33:39,000 --> 02:33:42,480
And so the the biggest concern I
heard about Bowers this 

2422
02:33:42,480 --> 02:33:44,400
offseason was he's on the 
Raiders. 

2423
02:33:44,400 --> 02:33:47,200
The Raiders kind of stink and oh
gosh, you're not going to score 

2424
02:33:47,200 --> 02:33:50,760
very many points. 
And I mean, to pass version of 

2425
02:33:50,760 --> 02:33:54,200
myself that that kind of bought 
into that FUD a little bit. 

2426
02:33:54,520 --> 02:33:58,200
I would say to myself they don't
need to score a lot of points 

2427
02:33:58,200 --> 02:33:59,760
for him to be a really good 
tight end. 

2428
02:34:00,680 --> 02:34:04,240
It's just it's going to be fine.
They don't need many points for 

2429
02:34:04,240 --> 02:34:07,320
him to be an incredible play at 
the tight end position, so. 

2430
02:34:07,760 --> 02:34:09,320
Right. 
And they've got 70, so you've 

2431
02:34:09,320 --> 02:34:13,000
got 7 targets there for 40 or 39
area yards. 

2432
02:34:13,400 --> 02:34:16,000
First game of a of a rookie 
tight end career. 

2433
02:34:16,680 --> 02:34:18,440
First game of a rookie tight end
career. 

2434
02:34:18,520 --> 02:34:21,200
And Michael, and it's not like 
Michael Bayer wasn't involved 

2435
02:34:21,240 --> 02:34:24,160
either like they were. 
Did you see the drive or it went

2436
02:34:24,680 --> 02:34:27,480
Bowers mayor, Bowers mayor? 
They're just like, fuck 

2437
02:34:27,480 --> 02:34:29,360
everything else. 
It's just tight end. 

2438
02:34:29,640 --> 02:34:34,840
Maybe we throw to the tight end.
Well, what, what kind of is 

2439
02:34:34,840 --> 02:34:40,360
interesting. 
So Bowers had a 78% red share, 

2440
02:34:40,560 --> 02:34:48,280
May Meyer had a 40% red share. 
And so I, I like Meyer was going

2441
02:34:48,280 --> 02:34:50,280
in the last round of tight end 
premium. 

2442
02:34:50,280 --> 02:34:52,640
So like from that standpoint, 
I'm not worried. 

2443
02:34:53,120 --> 02:34:55,280
And then he had a 19% target 
spread run. 

2444
02:34:55,280 --> 02:34:57,920
So we he had four, he had three 
targets. 

2445
02:34:58,600 --> 02:35:04,360
And so he was involved. 
He has a role and but like to 

2446
02:35:04,360 --> 02:35:09,000
your point, first game of a 
rookie tight end season and he's

2447
02:35:09,000 --> 02:35:13,520
like just like utter good 
prospect, like second like 

2448
02:35:13,520 --> 02:35:17,200
second round pick, like amazing 
player for Notre Dame just 

2449
02:35:17,200 --> 02:35:18,760
completely crushes him. 
Yeah. 

2450
02:35:20,320 --> 02:35:25,720
And so the, the talent like 
definitely you're, you're 

2451
02:35:25,720 --> 02:35:28,200
definitely you're feeling very 
good about the potential that 

2452
02:35:28,200 --> 02:35:32,760
this is like top five tight end 
prospect ever. 

2453
02:35:33,160 --> 02:35:36,840
Like, Oh yeah, I, I feel very 
confident about that. 

2454
02:35:36,880 --> 02:35:42,760
I mean, if you got Brock Bowers 
on a good offense, like like 

2455
02:35:42,760 --> 02:35:45,360
think about the Sam Laporta 
landing spot last year on the 

2456
02:35:45,360 --> 02:35:47,880
Lions, like one of the best 
offenses in the league. 

2457
02:35:48,600 --> 02:35:52,440
Like, Oh my goodness, just 
imagine what Brock Bowers on a 

2458
02:35:52,440 --> 02:35:55,800
good offense. 
Like, right, He, he, you. 

2459
02:35:56,320 --> 02:36:00,840
Got good points from this week 
right and right and I I guess so

2460
02:36:00,840 --> 02:36:03,920
like I mentioned, they dropped 
back 40 times like that doesn't 

2461
02:36:03,920 --> 02:36:08,000
seem like a an outlier stop for 
the Raiders like. 

2462
02:36:08,640 --> 02:36:11,120
No, it's just not. 
Me at all if if that was their 

2463
02:36:11,120 --> 02:36:15,040
average was 40 points a week and
then some of those weeks you've 

2464
02:36:15,040 --> 02:36:18,560
got touchdowns as well. 
Yeah, I just, I think getting to

2465
02:36:18,600 --> 02:36:22,440
the, getting to the. 
Double I get what you're saying 

2466
02:36:22,440 --> 02:36:27,880
where he's so good that if you 
if you got a good offense, then 

2467
02:36:27,880 --> 02:36:32,600
he would just like obliterate. 
But yeah, just for for this 

2468
02:36:32,600 --> 02:36:34,040
season. 
It doesn't sound like we're 

2469
02:36:34,040 --> 02:36:36,640
going to get that. 
And and I'm trying to make the 

2470
02:36:36,640 --> 02:36:39,800
point that like that, that's 
that's more than OK. 

2471
02:36:40,240 --> 02:36:46,560
Yes no, he, I if he finishes 
outside the top five tight ends 

2472
02:36:46,560 --> 02:36:49,280
this year, I'll be pretty 
surprised, right. 

2473
02:36:50,000 --> 02:36:52,520
It's just. 
If he I'd ask what injury did he

2474
02:36:52,640 --> 02:36:55,400
get? 
Right yeah, if he if he could 

2475
02:36:55,480 --> 02:36:59,880
get double digit touchdowns like
Sam LaPorte got in his rookie 

2476
02:36:59,880 --> 02:37:04,960
season, like Brock Bowers is is 
very live to set not just like 

2477
02:37:04,960 --> 02:37:08,760
the highest scoring rookie tight
end season ever, but like the 

2478
02:37:08,760 --> 02:37:11,320
highest scoring tight end season
of all time. 

2479
02:37:11,440 --> 02:37:13,960
And I, I don't think that's that
wild. 

2480
02:37:13,960 --> 02:37:19,560
Like I just, he's, he's very 
good, like 23% targets per route

2481
02:37:19,560 --> 02:37:20,920
run. 
I know it's one game but like, 

2482
02:37:21,400 --> 02:37:23,800
Oh my God, right? 
Right. 

2483
02:37:25,080 --> 02:37:29,920
And and like they're certainly 
going to play defenses that 

2484
02:37:29,920 --> 02:37:32,800
aren't as motivated as the 
Chargers, right. 

2485
02:37:35,080 --> 02:37:39,600
So a couple of other situations 
I think we want to touch on 

2486
02:37:39,600 --> 02:37:44,120
here. 
And so took her craft, yeah, 

2487
02:37:44,120 --> 02:37:46,800
like, played, played on 100% of 
snaps. 

2488
02:37:47,360 --> 02:37:50,240
But this just like atrocious 
targets were wrong. 

2489
02:37:50,760 --> 02:37:52,880
Like you get him in the last 
round of tight end premium, 

2490
02:37:52,880 --> 02:37:54,280
you're very happy with that 
pick. 

2491
02:37:54,960 --> 02:37:57,360
But Luke Musgrave, just like 
deader than dead. 

2492
02:37:57,960 --> 02:38:00,720
Yeah, Luke. 
Unless there's an injury we 

2493
02:38:00,720 --> 02:38:06,080
don't know about on Musgrave 
like and that's pure grasping 

2494
02:38:06,080 --> 02:38:07,920
straws. 
Yeah, and I mean. 

2495
02:38:07,920 --> 02:38:11,560
Crap play 25% of snaps. 
And Kraft was a late addition to

2496
02:38:11,560 --> 02:38:13,600
the injury report report this 
week too. 

2497
02:38:13,600 --> 02:38:17,480
So like, he wasn't 100%, but 
they had him out there 100% of 

2498
02:38:17,480 --> 02:38:20,160
snaps. 
So yeah, that Tucker Kraft 

2499
02:38:21,840 --> 02:38:24,440
remains to be seen how involved 
he's going to be in the offense.

2500
02:38:24,440 --> 02:38:27,480
Also you as far as like actually
getting targets. 

2501
02:38:28,400 --> 02:38:30,000
Right. 
You know, he's out there. 

2502
02:38:30,000 --> 02:38:31,680
He's he's running. 
Wind Springs, Yeah. 

2503
02:38:31,680 --> 02:38:35,720
It's like congratulations, you 
binked the the starting tight 

2504
02:38:35,720 --> 02:38:36,880
end. 
Yeah, you got you got the 

2505
02:38:36,880 --> 02:38:39,360
starting tight end. 
You got the K dot and guy. 

2506
02:38:40,200 --> 02:38:42,160
He's earning less targets than 
Johnny Munt. 

2507
02:38:42,160 --> 02:38:45,960
Congratulations. 
I mean, I'm pretty like for, for

2508
02:38:45,960 --> 02:38:47,920
the teams where I got him in the
last round, I'm I'm. 

2509
02:38:48,120 --> 02:38:49,240
Oh, you're happy? 
Is it with that? 

2510
02:38:49,760 --> 02:38:53,880
Yeah, for sure, but you have 
room to win is what you have 

2511
02:38:53,880 --> 02:38:55,800
right now. 
Tucker Craft, right so. 

2512
02:38:56,680 --> 02:39:00,400
And I don't I don't think the 
the Eagles were focused on 

2513
02:39:00,520 --> 02:39:03,560
eliminating Tucker Craft. 
No. 

2514
02:39:03,760 --> 02:39:06,920
And that you know on the on the 
flip side that the Luke 

2515
02:39:06,920 --> 02:39:10,200
Musgrave, like you said deader 
than dead all the Luke Musgrave 

2516
02:39:10,200 --> 02:39:13,400
teams you drafted, you could 
have just auto if if you auto 

2517
02:39:13,400 --> 02:39:15,840
drafted those picks instead, 
that would be better. 

2518
02:39:16,880 --> 02:39:18,440
Yeah. 
So that's unfortunate. 

2519
02:39:20,880 --> 02:39:27,640
A guy that I was 22 guys that 
were late darts that both showed

2520
02:39:27,640 --> 02:39:30,840
stuff that is promising but 
didn't show up with a good box 

2521
02:39:30,840 --> 02:39:35,240
score week 1 because almost no 
Titan did Theo Johnson out there

2522
02:39:35,240 --> 02:39:42,560
a lot out there quite a bit, but
what was it 4 targets had a had 

2523
02:39:42,560 --> 02:39:47,440
a bad drop, not great offense 
looks atrocious. 

2524
02:39:47,440 --> 02:39:50,840
I think here what you're just 
hoping for with Theo Johnson is 

2525
02:39:50,840 --> 02:39:54,960
that the offense improved 
slightly and he was a rookie 

2526
02:39:54,960 --> 02:39:58,560
tight end that got a ton of 
snaps in his first game, so 

2527
02:39:59,280 --> 02:40:00,720
you're just hoping for him to 
run. 

2528
02:40:01,400 --> 02:40:06,120
Yeah, yeah. 
I mean 76% right run on week one

2529
02:40:06,120 --> 02:40:11,480
of a rookie season and like 
that, that's encouraging from 

2530
02:40:11,480 --> 02:40:13,960
like a usage and kind of talent 
perspective. 

2531
02:40:14,720 --> 02:40:22,800
And then he had it like his his 
target stuff 11% Tiger Sprout 

2532
02:40:22,800 --> 02:40:29,600
run an 8.3 like that's that's 
far, far from elite, but it's 

2533
02:40:31,000 --> 02:40:34,600
it's mid tier. 
So if you get a better offense, 

2534
02:40:34,600 --> 02:40:39,080
then you're pretty happy. 
And I don't see how it could be 

2535
02:40:39,080 --> 02:40:41,680
much worse than what we saw. 
But I won't. 

2536
02:40:41,960 --> 02:40:45,360
I won't dare the Giants to show 
me that the. 

2537
02:40:45,880 --> 02:40:50,960
Other you can you can cut like 
you can probably cut your your 

2538
02:40:50,960 --> 02:40:55,520
bears, tight ends. 
You can, man. 

2539
02:40:55,520 --> 02:40:59,080
Gerald Everett, negative 5A dot 
and then Cole Comet. 

2540
02:40:59,080 --> 02:41:02,200
Like, I don't even think Cole 
Comet shows up on the backup 

2541
02:41:02,200 --> 02:41:03,600
tight end chart. 
He just didn't. 

2542
02:41:03,960 --> 02:41:08,280
Oh, he does. 
Barely right next to Noah Gray. 

2543
02:41:08,880 --> 02:41:11,840
This is Shane Waldron. 
You suck. 

2544
02:41:12,240 --> 02:41:15,080
You're the worst Shane Waldron. 
What's wrong with you, dude? 

2545
02:41:16,880 --> 02:41:20,280
Like this is this is criminal 
negligence from Shane Waldron. 

2546
02:41:20,280 --> 02:41:22,760
Like dude, do some self 
scouting. 

2547
02:41:22,800 --> 02:41:27,160
Like you blow straight up just 
someone who knows Shane Waldron.

2548
02:41:27,160 --> 02:41:30,520
Send him the clip, tell him to 
like, check out his own players,

2549
02:41:30,560 --> 02:41:31,960
figure out who's good on his 
team. 

2550
02:41:32,400 --> 02:41:39,800
And then I'm not sure how do we 
react to Juan Johnson being on 

2551
02:41:39,800 --> 02:41:42,920
the backup? 
Yeah, a little, definitely a 

2552
02:41:42,920 --> 02:41:46,080
little concerned there with all 
the, you know, Foster Moreau 

2553
02:41:46,360 --> 02:41:47,680
being on the field more than 
him. 

2554
02:41:47,680 --> 02:41:50,920
Foster Moreau was on the field 
to block a decent amount. 

2555
02:41:51,320 --> 02:41:54,200
They were, they were pretty 
close in their their routes. 

2556
02:41:55,400 --> 02:41:58,360
I think part of it, if you want 
the copium, you can like chalk 

2557
02:41:58,360 --> 02:42:02,120
it up to, oh, he, you know, he's
just coming back off the injury.

2558
02:42:02,120 --> 02:42:06,720
He missed a lot of camp and he, 
you know, he's a converted 

2559
02:42:06,720 --> 02:42:09,400
receiver. 
So I think he's very, you know, 

2560
02:42:09,960 --> 02:42:13,400
very much like live to be the 
tight end that gets more of the 

2561
02:42:13,400 --> 02:42:16,920
receiving work. 
It's a it's a very interesting 

2562
02:42:16,920 --> 02:42:21,000
situation to watch play out just
because it's really murky with 

2563
02:42:21,400 --> 02:42:24,720
Foster Murrow being there and 
getting snaps now and Taysom 

2564
02:42:24,720 --> 02:42:28,160
Hill like technically having the
tight end designation and and 

2565
02:42:28,160 --> 02:42:30,680
taking inline snaps at tight end
occasionally so. 

2566
02:42:31,400 --> 02:42:34,640
Interesting one on 4 targets. 
Yeah. 

2567
02:42:35,440 --> 02:42:37,440
So twice the targets, twice the 
area yards. 

2568
02:42:37,440 --> 02:42:40,560
Well, Foster Moreau is Derek 
just for for people that are not

2569
02:42:41,200 --> 02:42:45,520
so so in the in the know about 
Moreau, he is Derek Carr's guy. 

2570
02:42:45,520 --> 02:42:49,640
They they go back to the the 
Raiders together and they're 

2571
02:42:49,640 --> 02:42:54,240
they're both like, I can't, I 
can't confirm or deny this, but 

2572
02:42:54,240 --> 02:42:57,680
I wouldn't be surprised if 
Foster Moreau and Derek Carr are

2573
02:42:57,680 --> 02:43:02,320
in a Bible study together. 
Just saying based on their each 

2574
02:43:02,320 --> 02:43:05,920
of their twitters and and I 
think they're he's definitely 

2575
02:43:05,920 --> 02:43:08,320
Derek Carr's boy. 
Like he, he's this guy, so. 

2576
02:43:08,520 --> 02:43:12,400
They're friends and Bible 
narrative, but this is a gross 

2577
02:43:12,400 --> 02:43:16,280
committee now, right? 
It it, it definitely if, if I 

2578
02:43:16,280 --> 02:43:21,800
get one more week of Jawaan 
Johnson's routes not increasing,

2579
02:43:22,360 --> 02:43:26,680
I'm immediately becoming I'm 
not, I'm actually not concerned 

2580
02:43:26,680 --> 02:43:29,200
yet. 
Next week, if it's the same, I'm

2581
02:43:29,200 --> 02:43:35,920
concerned. 
I'm I'm a little, I'm, I'm 

2582
02:43:35,920 --> 02:43:39,600
definitely more than a little 
concerned for Juwan 1 Johnson. 

2583
02:43:39,880 --> 02:43:42,640
And I just think just coming 
right off the foot surgery is 

2584
02:43:42,640 --> 02:43:45,800
enough to make me be like, let 
me let me just see how this like

2585
02:43:45,800 --> 02:43:47,640
it very much could be a ramp up 
thing. 

2586
02:43:48,000 --> 02:43:51,840
The guy on the previous chart I 
wanted to to mention to was Noah

2587
02:43:51,840 --> 02:43:54,960
fan with a a good targets for 
route run. 

2588
02:43:54,960 --> 02:43:58,800
Not a great A dot. 
Again, didn't show up in the box

2589
02:43:58,800 --> 02:44:02,000
score. 
Just, you know, guy to guy to 

2590
02:44:02,000 --> 02:44:03,840
absolutely leave the light on 
for though. 

2591
02:44:04,320 --> 02:44:07,560
Very clearly is the tight end 
one on his team though, which he

2592
02:44:07,560 --> 02:44:12,040
was not last year. 
So yeah, I, I think if, if 

2593
02:44:12,040 --> 02:44:15,400
you're drafting, no offense, 
this is pretty much from a 

2594
02:44:15,400 --> 02:44:18,560
player perspective on 
peripherals as as good as you 

2595
02:44:18,560 --> 02:44:23,280
could have expected where it's 
borderline and tight end and 

2596
02:44:23,320 --> 02:44:26,880
it's borderline, yeah, tight 
end, one usage. 

2597
02:44:27,040 --> 02:44:31,280
That's the best way to put it in
terms of like route share and 

2598
02:44:31,280 --> 02:44:33,280
then very strong targets per out
run. 

2599
02:44:33,880 --> 02:44:37,520
And the A dot is kind of that's 
kind of in line with career. 

2600
02:44:38,120 --> 02:44:44,440
But getting the getting the high
target and per out run along 

2601
02:44:44,440 --> 02:44:48,480
with an increase in route usage 
that that that's as good as as 

2602
02:44:49,280 --> 02:44:54,080
you can kind of expect you. 
You just need that to come in 

2603
02:44:54,080 --> 02:44:56,360
the context of a better 
performing offense. 

2604
02:44:57,320 --> 02:45:00,120
Yeah, OK. 
We can go back to the backup 

2605
02:45:00,120 --> 02:45:03,120
tight end chart now because 
there is another guy I wanted to

2606
02:45:03,120 --> 02:45:05,360
talk about here all the way up 
at the top. 

2607
02:45:05,480 --> 02:45:10,320
Jake Ferguson, if he had not 
gotten injured, was on his way 

2608
02:45:10,320 --> 02:45:15,880
to just absolutely smashing, 
looking like one of the guys 

2609
02:45:15,880 --> 02:45:19,840
that you really wanted to be 
drafting because the Cowboys do 

2610
02:45:19,840 --> 02:45:22,120
not have any other target 
earners outside CD Lamb. 

2611
02:45:22,120 --> 02:45:24,240
And yes, they were dog walking 
the Browns. 

2612
02:45:24,280 --> 02:45:26,920
You know, this probably isn't 
going to be terribly indicative.

2613
02:45:26,920 --> 02:45:28,640
He didn't get to even play a 
full game. 

2614
02:45:28,640 --> 02:45:30,000
So we have a pretty small 
sample. 

2615
02:45:31,640 --> 02:45:36,200
But man, it it just from 
watching the game, it looked 

2616
02:45:36,200 --> 02:45:40,120
like it was going to be Jake 
Ferguson and CD Lamb. 

2617
02:45:40,400 --> 02:45:43,760
And then occasionally the 
Cowboys will get the ball to 

2618
02:45:43,760 --> 02:45:46,720
someone else, but they really 
would prefer not to, you know, 

2619
02:45:47,280 --> 02:45:51,120
like it's like, do we have to 
throw it to Brandon Cook's? 

2620
02:45:51,240 --> 02:45:55,000
Do we have to throw it to Jalen 
Tolbert or, or the other or 

2621
02:45:55,000 --> 02:45:57,440
Jalen Guyton or not Jalen 
Guyton, the other Jalen the 

2622
02:45:57,440 --> 02:45:59,960
Cowboys have multiple Jalen 
receivers. 

2623
02:46:00,800 --> 02:46:05,560
Even they they tried the the 
Cavante Turpin catch a pass 

2624
02:46:05,560 --> 02:46:08,680
challenge and they're like Nope,
just get back to the return to. 

2625
02:46:09,000 --> 02:46:16,280
MCL Spring, yeah. 
And so he will come back this 

2626
02:46:16,280 --> 02:46:19,160
year. 
Yeah, I haven't seen. 

2627
02:46:19,400 --> 02:46:23,680
Has he been placed on IR? 
And I haven't seen. 

2628
02:46:24,160 --> 02:46:27,000
I don't think he was at least. 
Yeah. 

2629
02:46:28,160 --> 02:46:30,760
So that's that's the hard thing 
about it, but it could be super.

2630
02:46:30,760 --> 02:46:31,840
Good. 
I thought that it was a sprain. 

2631
02:46:31,840 --> 02:46:37,840
AMCL sprain. 
Yeah, so just a. 

2632
02:46:38,000 --> 02:46:40,880
Week to probably. 
Got to got to keep an eye on as 

2633
02:46:40,880 --> 02:46:45,280
a waiver wire ad if he makes his
way, if he gets dropped, you 

2634
02:46:45,280 --> 02:46:51,120
know? 
And and then I guess as as he 

2635
02:46:51,120 --> 02:46:55,840
comes back, would you, would you
play him week 1 on his return 

2636
02:46:56,120 --> 02:46:59,920
or? 
I mean, like if, if necessary, 

2637
02:46:59,920 --> 02:47:02,680
like if I don't have another 
good option, you know, like if 

2638
02:47:02,680 --> 02:47:07,600
I'm staring down a like, oh, I 
mean, if I'm staring down like a

2639
02:47:07,600 --> 02:47:09,200
Chico Conquo. 
Absolutely. 

2640
02:47:09,960 --> 02:47:11,600
Right. 
Well, you're not, you're not 

2641
02:47:11,600 --> 02:47:14,600
going to play him on, on, on DFS
his his first week back. 

2642
02:47:14,600 --> 02:47:16,000
You're not going to take him on 
a drug. 

2643
02:47:17,960 --> 02:47:20,800
No probably not. 
Maybe maybe in the dog bowl like

2644
02:47:20,800 --> 02:47:22,760
first week back if he's going 
undrafted. 

2645
02:47:22,840 --> 02:47:25,160
People are scared it's first 
week back or something and 

2646
02:47:25,360 --> 02:47:28,880
willing to do it. 
It's just it's situation and 

2647
02:47:28,880 --> 02:47:32,000
price dependent. 
Right. 

2648
02:47:32,000 --> 02:47:34,040
Well, I assume that he would be 
undrafted. 

2649
02:47:34,520 --> 02:47:37,040
Yeah, his first week back. 
Yeah, I'd, I'd have a little. 

2650
02:47:37,040 --> 02:47:43,240
I'd dabble, OK? 
And onto receivers. 

2651
02:47:43,840 --> 02:47:45,800
Let's, let's do it. 
Let's bring it home with 

2652
02:47:45,800 --> 02:47:51,560
receivers. 
OK, so and last year you heard 

2653
02:47:51,600 --> 02:47:55,920
her first, that Jameson Williams
is the best receiver on the 

2654
02:47:55,920 --> 02:47:59,440
Detroit Lions. 
And we were not wrong. 

2655
02:47:59,440 --> 02:48:02,840
We were just there. 
Yeah, I think the exact quote 

2656
02:48:02,840 --> 02:48:06,760
was it's going to be this time 
next year and Jameson Williams 

2657
02:48:06,760 --> 02:48:10,760
will be the wide receiver one 
for the Detroit Lions, and that 

2658
02:48:10,760 --> 02:48:14,920
won't be a hot take. 
And I mean, the thesis is 

2659
02:48:14,920 --> 02:48:16,880
playing out, I think. 
Right. 

2660
02:48:16,920 --> 02:48:18,120
It's still a hot take. 
Let's. 

2661
02:48:20,240 --> 02:48:24,240
If you, if you want my like 
legitimate analysis, I think 

2662
02:48:24,240 --> 02:48:28,800
that what is likely to happen is
that he's going to be taking 

2663
02:48:28,800 --> 02:48:32,560
away opportunities from almond 
raw that people were overly 

2664
02:48:32,560 --> 02:48:34,920
confident that almond raw was 
going to be. 

2665
02:48:35,280 --> 02:48:37,680
We were we were just penciling 
in that almond Raw was going to 

2666
02:48:37,680 --> 02:48:40,360
continue being this insane 
target dominator. 

2667
02:48:40,760 --> 02:48:42,600
I think he's still going to be 
very good. 

2668
02:48:42,600 --> 02:48:44,440
I would not panic if you have 
almond Raw. 

2669
02:48:44,960 --> 02:48:48,120
I just think that the price got 
away from us a little bit on 

2670
02:48:48,120 --> 02:48:52,480
almond Raw where it wasn't he he
was just going a little too high

2671
02:48:52,480 --> 02:48:55,480
for what he is, which is a very 
good. 

2672
02:48:56,400 --> 02:48:59,840
You know, possession receiver. 
You know, power power slot, like

2673
02:49:00,320 --> 02:49:05,320
diet Cooper cup type guy. 
You know, it's just that Jameson

2674
02:49:05,320 --> 02:49:08,120
Williams is actually good. 
And he had. 

2675
02:49:08,720 --> 02:49:16,880
A rocket 94% Rd. share his he 
had a 27% targets per hour run 

2676
02:49:17,360 --> 02:49:22,440
on a 14.6 A dot. 
And so then just an incredible 

2677
02:49:22,440 --> 02:49:28,400
day where like that's like, I 
don't want to like I don't want 

2678
02:49:28,400 --> 02:49:32,400
to jump the gun, but if we got 
that foot for a full year, like 

2679
02:49:32,400 --> 02:49:36,760
that's wide receiver one on the 
season adjacent usage. 

2680
02:49:37,120 --> 02:49:39,640
Yeah, no, I mean, there's a 
reason he's breaking the truck. 

2681
02:49:40,360 --> 02:49:42,120
Almost 25 points a game. 
Yeah. 

2682
02:49:42,960 --> 02:49:47,600
Would be wide receiver one but 
everything you wanted to see 

2683
02:49:47,600 --> 02:49:53,440
happen happens and then you 
you've now you've now seen that 

2684
02:49:53,440 --> 02:49:59,120
wide receiver one type usage I 
and then and then the question 

2685
02:49:59,120 --> 02:50:05,640
would be now we've almost seen 
it are are you like where would 

2686
02:50:05,640 --> 02:50:09,960
you where would like if we're I 
guess if we're dropping again 

2687
02:50:09,960 --> 02:50:12,720
today like is he second round 
pick? 

2688
02:50:13,160 --> 02:50:15,640
Is he third? 
I like we were. 

2689
02:50:15,840 --> 02:50:21,760
We're working on some some rest 
of season rankings and we're 

2690
02:50:21,760 --> 02:50:26,200
discussing where he should go. 
And I I said he's over DJ more 

2691
02:50:26,280 --> 02:50:30,760
like comfortably for me, like it
to me, not particularly close 

2692
02:50:31,840 --> 02:50:33,960
like I would. 
Doug both stuff he's going 

2693
02:50:33,960 --> 02:50:38,960
average pick 33.9. 
So in between Godwin Devante 

2694
02:50:38,960 --> 02:50:44,800
Adams like and obviously this is
early in the week stuff, right, 

2695
02:50:44,840 --> 02:50:52,160
And but he's would you take them
over? 

2696
02:50:52,400 --> 02:50:55,120
Would you'd want Would you want 
Iuke over him? 

2697
02:50:58,400 --> 02:51:02,000
Yeah, you probably want Iuke 
over him just because. 

2698
02:51:02,080 --> 02:51:05,360
Well, I think it, I think it 
really depends because like 

2699
02:51:05,560 --> 02:51:06,720
right, I think we've. 
Seen one, right? 

2700
02:51:07,120 --> 02:51:11,680
We've seen what Iuke, we've seen
what Iuke's ceiling is. 

2701
02:51:12,040 --> 02:51:17,240
And like, I I it's hard for me 
to see a ceiling higher for Iuke

2702
02:51:17,240 --> 02:51:18,760
than what he got last year, 
right? 

2703
02:51:18,760 --> 02:51:23,240
Like that, just with the current
situation for the 49, like 

2704
02:51:23,240 --> 02:51:26,880
something material has to change
for IU ceiling to change. 

2705
02:51:26,880 --> 02:51:30,320
Like you need a Devo season 
ending injury or something like 

2706
02:51:30,920 --> 02:51:33,320
so. 
And I think the ceiling with 

2707
02:51:33,320 --> 02:51:36,240
Jameson is just a lot more 
ambiguous. 

2708
02:51:36,240 --> 02:51:40,120
We're like, what if this is? 
Because like, it's not like he 

2709
02:51:40,120 --> 02:51:42,600
just caught a deep bomb and 
that's why he scored a bunch of 

2710
02:51:42,600 --> 02:51:44,560
points. 
Like he was getting stuff 

2711
02:51:44,560 --> 02:51:46,160
underneath and getting yards 
after cap. 

2712
02:51:46,200 --> 02:51:50,440
Like he he was, he was good. 
Like he was very good. 

2713
02:51:50,840 --> 02:51:53,720
He had a. 27% target spread run.
Yeah. 

2714
02:51:54,640 --> 02:51:59,320
So to me, if you're I mean, the 
thing that I have to keep 

2715
02:51:59,320 --> 02:52:03,720
reminding myself is like the way
that you win in fantasy football

2716
02:52:03,720 --> 02:52:09,040
is you you get these outlier got
like you happen to get the 

2717
02:52:09,080 --> 02:52:11,680
outlier before everyone else was
Privy to it. 

2718
02:52:12,440 --> 02:52:16,200
And it's like if this outlier 
season is happening for Jameson 

2719
02:52:16,200 --> 02:52:19,400
Williams, kind of like how it 
happened for Puka and Akua last 

2720
02:52:19,400 --> 02:52:25,880
year, The last stop on the train
was week 1 waiver run when like,

2721
02:52:26,120 --> 02:52:28,680
hey, Puka's here, how much do 
you bid on him? 

2722
02:52:28,840 --> 02:52:31,000
The correct answer was 
everything, you know, The 

2723
02:52:31,000 --> 02:52:33,720
correct answer was trade your 
league mate for FAB before 

2724
02:52:33,720 --> 02:52:36,960
waivers run just so you can 
guarantee have more FAB than 

2725
02:52:37,000 --> 02:52:40,200
everyone else. 
And so I mean, if that's the 

2726
02:52:40,240 --> 02:52:43,800
outcome, even if it's a really 
small probability of happening, 

2727
02:52:45,000 --> 02:52:47,720
like that's a, that's A season 
winning kind of outcome. 

2728
02:52:47,840 --> 02:52:51,320
And so I don't know that you're 
getting out over your ski. 

2729
02:52:51,320 --> 02:52:55,080
Like if there's a league where 
Jameson is on waivers, do you 

2730
02:52:55,080 --> 02:52:59,480
think it's do you think it's 
ridiculous to spend 70% of your 

2731
02:52:59,480 --> 02:53:04,240
fav on him? 
No, no, you spend all of it. 

2732
02:53:04,640 --> 02:53:08,080
You just, you blow it all right?
Yeah, 100%. 

2733
02:53:08,920 --> 02:53:13,640
Yeah. 
Yeah, I am. 

2734
02:53:13,640 --> 02:53:17,360
I had somebody, yeah, I somebody
asked me for a wavered for a 

2735
02:53:17,400 --> 02:53:20,520
line of advice. 
I had the man cut and David 

2736
02:53:20,520 --> 02:53:24,440
Montgomery for for Jameson. 
Today. 

2737
02:53:25,680 --> 02:53:28,120
Wow. 
Wow, you. 

2738
02:53:28,120 --> 02:53:29,720
You really are a David 
Montgomery hater. 

2739
02:53:29,720 --> 02:53:33,440
David Montgomery is so useful 
for fantasy. 

2740
02:53:33,440 --> 02:53:37,800
Man, you're such a hater. 
All right, we Jameson is super 

2741
02:53:37,800 --> 02:53:39,960
fun to talk about and we 
definitely needed to talk about 

2742
02:53:39,960 --> 02:53:42,720
him, but we have a lot of 
receivers to go through here, 

2743
02:53:44,280 --> 02:53:46,320
man, You know who's pretty 
exciting here? 

2744
02:53:46,600 --> 02:53:50,200
Jalen McMillan. 
I don't know how much of that 

2745
02:53:50,200 --> 02:53:54,200
Bucks game you watched. 
And I say this, there's some 

2746
02:53:54,200 --> 02:53:57,160
things that I say where I'm 
exaggerating a little bit just 

2747
02:53:57,160 --> 02:53:59,480
because it's more fun. 
Like we are, we are playing a 

2748
02:53:59,480 --> 02:54:00,880
game where we're trying to have 
fun. 

2749
02:54:01,240 --> 02:54:03,360
I mean, of course we're trying 
to give good analysis here. 

2750
02:54:03,360 --> 02:54:06,120
So I'm not just like out and out
making shit up. 

2751
02:54:06,440 --> 02:54:10,680
But like I say this with no 
exaggeration, Jalen McMillan 

2752
02:54:10,680 --> 02:54:13,480
could have had four touchdowns 
that game. 

2753
02:54:13,800 --> 02:54:17,400
Like there were he could have 
had 4 touchdowns. 

2754
02:54:17,680 --> 02:54:21,880
What is like holy shit he he 
looks looks pretty good. 

2755
02:54:21,920 --> 02:54:24,920
He's like consistently beating 
dudes just like. 

2756
02:54:25,560 --> 02:54:30,400
So he led the team in rounds, 
which that's pretty interesting.

2757
02:54:30,400 --> 02:54:34,520
Yeah. 
And then on the other hand, his,

2758
02:54:35,520 --> 02:54:40,320
his targets per run was just 10%
on A dot of 18. 

2759
02:54:41,160 --> 02:54:46,680
And so obviously he, he, he, he 
was, he was a deep root guy and 

2760
02:54:46,680 --> 02:54:48,720
he was getting targeted on those
deep breaths. 

2761
02:54:48,760 --> 02:54:53,160
He connected on one of them and 
but was not able to on the odor.

2762
02:54:54,320 --> 02:55:00,800
And you definitely just maybe 
I'm being cold water here, but 

2763
02:55:01,320 --> 02:55:05,200
to like really get excited, you 
need that usage to evolve right 

2764
02:55:05,360 --> 02:55:07,400
Where yes, expanding the red 
tree. 

2765
02:55:08,000 --> 02:55:08,960
Absolutely. 
Yeah. 

2766
02:55:08,960 --> 02:55:11,680
You're not. 
You're not gonna, you know, win 

2767
02:55:11,680 --> 02:55:15,600
all the money with Jalen 
McMillan if he just keeps being 

2768
02:55:15,600 --> 02:55:18,440
captain Winsprint. 
I mean, you're going to have a 

2769
02:55:18,440 --> 02:55:22,080
couple exciting weeks here when 
he connects on like for for him 

2770
02:55:22,080 --> 02:55:26,120
to have a legitimate opportunity
for four touchdowns in his first

2771
02:55:26,120 --> 02:55:28,760
game as a rookie and run the 
most routes, like that's very 

2772
02:55:28,760 --> 02:55:31,680
exciting. 
The upside is abundantly clear 

2773
02:55:31,680 --> 02:55:36,600
now, but for him to truly be a 
league winner, the role needs to

2774
02:55:36,600 --> 02:55:41,920
evolve and it's hard with he's 
got quality target competition. 

2775
02:55:41,920 --> 02:55:45,120
There is the toughest barrier. 
You know, you've got Mike Evans 

2776
02:55:45,120 --> 02:55:48,720
who still look like him, like 
Mike Evans looked fantastic. 

2777
02:55:49,000 --> 02:55:51,640
Chris Godwin looked a little 
rejuvenated, you know, running 

2778
02:55:51,640 --> 02:55:55,440
more routes out of the slot. 
So it there. 

2779
02:55:55,520 --> 02:55:59,480
There's barriers to overcome for
McMillan, but the talent seems 

2780
02:55:59,480 --> 02:56:02,320
clear. 
Right. 

2781
02:56:02,520 --> 02:56:04,840
And that's pretty fair. 
And I'm just to put a contrast 

2782
02:56:04,840 --> 02:56:08,920
on it or like a similarity and 
Xavier wordy, who were all 

2783
02:56:08,920 --> 02:56:12,560
pumped about when he scored two 
touchdowns against the Ravens. 

2784
02:56:12,960 --> 02:56:18,800
His target sprout run was just 
13% and Reg share of 77%. 

2785
02:56:19,720 --> 02:56:23,600
And so we definitely like that's
Mahomes. 

2786
02:56:23,680 --> 02:56:27,400
But with the fastest player in 
the league, like you're, you 

2787
02:56:27,400 --> 02:56:32,760
definitely expect touchdowns 
there and and you don't want, 

2788
02:56:32,760 --> 02:56:38,160
you definitely don't want to 
read too much into and limited 

2789
02:56:38,840 --> 02:56:44,120
usage for a rookie in week 1 
where like maybe there's a maybe

2790
02:56:44,120 --> 02:56:46,600
the reason they didn't put too 
much in their plate is because 

2791
02:56:46,600 --> 02:56:52,120
it's their first NFL game and 
it's like you're fast, like you 

2792
02:56:52,120 --> 02:56:54,640
can do this. 
But then as the season goes on, 

2793
02:56:55,080 --> 02:57:00,400
they expand that red tree. 
Yeah, So that encouraging stuff 

2794
02:57:00,400 --> 02:57:06,240
for McMillan, other guys on this
chart that were less 

2795
02:57:06,240 --> 02:57:09,560
encouraging. 
I'm going to hit you with some 

2796
02:57:09,560 --> 02:57:12,800
rapid fire. 
Are you worried, Crystal Labi? 

2797
02:57:12,800 --> 02:57:16,360
Are you worried? 
You, you, I, I mean you. 

2798
02:57:16,440 --> 02:57:21,160
You have to be there, right? 
Really, I'm, I'm not I'm not 

2799
02:57:21,160 --> 02:57:24,400
that worried about Crystal Labi.
I think a big part of it was 

2800
02:57:24,920 --> 02:57:28,200
they just beating the pants off 
of the Panthers and they're 

2801
02:57:29,120 --> 02:57:32,880
there wasn't really a ton of 
need to like, of course you'd 

2802
02:57:32,880 --> 02:57:39,160
like to get him more and see him
more involved, but I mean, it's 

2803
02:57:39,160 --> 02:57:42,240
not going to be every week that,
you know, Foster Moreau is 

2804
02:57:42,240 --> 02:57:44,200
getting 4 targets and a 
touchdown. 

2805
02:57:44,200 --> 02:57:47,680
Like I'm I'm not worried on 
crystal lava yet. 

2806
02:57:47,680 --> 02:57:50,600
If anything, I'm I'm encouraged 
by the fact that the offense 

2807
02:57:50,600 --> 02:57:54,600
seemed functional, although I'm 
not like majorly boosting. 

2808
02:57:55,040 --> 02:57:58,640
I just, I think it's net neutral
for Olava because the Panthers 

2809
02:57:58,640 --> 02:58:00,880
also could just be terrible on 
defense. 

2810
02:58:00,880 --> 02:58:05,240
And so maybe it wasn't a sign of
a fantastic offense, but a sign 

2811
02:58:05,240 --> 02:58:07,880
of a terrible defense. 
Yeah, that's, that's fair. 

2812
02:58:08,320 --> 02:58:12,520
And like it was just a 42% pass 
rate even though the volume was 

2813
02:58:12,520 --> 02:58:17,560
there maybe maybe those those 
passes were kind of and I know 

2814
02:58:17,560 --> 02:58:21,440
it's a high play action rate. 
So maybe it is just like 

2815
02:58:22,480 --> 02:58:26,360
Panthers are awful and they're 
just the tight ends are just 

2816
02:58:26,360 --> 02:58:29,200
hitting them down the seam on a 
play action and was like they 

2817
02:58:29,200 --> 02:58:30,960
can't stop that. 
So why would we do anything 

2818
02:58:30,960 --> 02:58:34,000
else, right? 
Yeah, That that's pretty fair. 

2819
02:58:34,080 --> 02:58:36,400
That's pretty fair. 
I was like, yeah, that, that 

2820
02:58:36,400 --> 02:58:40,160
that doesn't seem great. 
And but you're you're right 

2821
02:58:40,160 --> 02:58:42,360
there. 
That and we should be taking a 

2822
02:58:42,360 --> 02:58:46,080
longer view. 
Are you worried about Marvin 

2823
02:58:46,080 --> 02:58:50,400
Harrison Junior? 
And I'm going to say yeah too. 

2824
02:58:50,960 --> 02:58:54,520
And that doesn't seem great 
either. 

2825
02:58:54,600 --> 02:58:58,320
Where like normally with 
rookies, when you expect them to

2826
02:58:58,320 --> 02:59:02,800
come on later in the year, it's 
because they don't, they don't 

2827
02:59:02,800 --> 02:59:06,080
start with a full route share. 
They play well when they're in 

2828
02:59:06,080 --> 02:59:10,640
there, but they don't play 
enough. 

2829
02:59:10,680 --> 02:59:12,760
And then as the year goes on, 
they play more. 

2830
02:59:13,360 --> 02:59:19,920
But you had a 95% that right 
share 8% target for a run 10A 

2831
02:59:19,920 --> 02:59:23,240
dot, which I guess is, is 
perfectly fine. 

2832
02:59:23,880 --> 02:59:30,200
And I, I guess he did have that 
wide open play where he got the 

2833
02:59:30,200 --> 02:59:37,120
Rachel Green coverage. 
And but it that I guess that, 

2834
02:59:37,120 --> 02:59:40,240
that it that's especially where 
you talk them like you don't 

2835
02:59:40,240 --> 02:59:42,040
want to be making these kinds of
excuses. 

2836
02:59:42,040 --> 02:59:43,720
I was like. 
Oh, yeah. 

2837
02:59:43,720 --> 02:59:46,320
I mean, it's, it's not what you 
wanted to see for him. 

2838
02:59:46,400 --> 02:59:48,600
I'm not, I'm not panicking yet, 
I mean. 

2839
02:59:49,760 --> 02:59:52,960
I guess the question is would 
you still if you draft him on a 

2840
02:59:52,960 --> 02:59:55,600
team you still stardom in Week 
2? 

2841
02:59:57,320 --> 02:59:59,680
It depends on what else I. 
Have you are? 

2842
03:00:00,000 --> 03:00:04,800
Yeah, it depends on what I have.
Do you stardom over and I'm 

2843
03:00:04,880 --> 03:00:08,360
going to show a name out here 
and you start, you probably 

2844
03:00:08,360 --> 03:00:10,320
start them over Deonte or 
something like that. 

2845
03:00:10,440 --> 03:00:13,160
Yeah, yeah, yeah. 
And I don't. 

2846
03:00:13,240 --> 03:00:16,480
I don't put a single Panthers 
player in my lineup unless I'm 

2847
03:00:16,480 --> 03:00:18,440
in a dynasty league trying to 
get a better pick. 

2848
03:00:19,520 --> 03:00:21,080
Do you start them over? 
Keon Coleman. 

2849
03:00:24,600 --> 03:00:29,960
Probably, yeah. 
You start him over. 

2850
03:00:29,960 --> 03:00:34,160
Brian Thomas. 
No. 

2851
03:00:37,560 --> 03:00:40,760
So for for a lot of people, then
I think a lot of people are 

2852
03:00:40,760 --> 03:00:44,600
going to have like a player of 
Brian Thomas's caliber on their 

2853
03:00:44,600 --> 03:00:47,560
bench. 
I just think Brian Thomas I've 

2854
03:00:47,560 --> 03:00:50,000
got, I might have Brian Thomas 
pretty high. 

2855
03:00:50,000 --> 03:00:52,720
He just, he looks like he might.
Yeah, yeah, he looks great. 

2856
03:00:53,560 --> 03:00:58,560
He might just be the alpha. 
You know, and he looks 

2857
03:00:58,560 --> 03:01:00,760
fantastic. 
So maybe I'm picking a bad 

2858
03:01:00,760 --> 03:01:07,800
example here, but I think like 
I'm what I'm trying to get at 

2859
03:01:07,800 --> 03:01:13,360
here is if you if you drafted a 
kind of 0 RV team and you took 

2860
03:01:13,360 --> 03:01:17,240
lots of receivers that they're 
like, I don't want to name every

2861
03:01:17,240 --> 03:01:21,160
receiver in that range. 
And but I think there will be 

2862
03:01:21,160 --> 03:01:25,800
people listening who can start 
the bench receiver over Marvin 

2863
03:01:25,800 --> 03:01:29,520
Harrison, Michael Pitman, not 
over jokester, but. 

2864
03:01:31,000 --> 03:01:36,920
Yeah, Michael Pitman or Marvin? 
Harrison for the rest of the 

2865
03:01:36,920 --> 03:01:40,360
year or or just this week. 
This, this week and also rest of

2866
03:01:40,360 --> 03:01:44,440
the season, I think. 
I think it's pretty easily at 

2867
03:01:44,440 --> 03:01:46,360
Michael Pittman there. 
Oh. 

2868
03:01:47,080 --> 03:01:50,200
Well, OK, so for. 
For, for this week, for, for. 

2869
03:01:50,200 --> 03:01:53,400
Both I, I think both is pretty 
easily Marvin Harrison, and it's

2870
03:01:53,400 --> 03:01:56,080
because the weighted targets per
route run for Michael Pittman 

2871
03:01:56,480 --> 03:01:59,360
are the fakest weighted targets 
per route run you've ever seen. 

2872
03:01:59,600 --> 03:02:07,520
Because 80% of 10 is a really 
small #80% of 10 is 8, and 20% 

2873
03:02:07,880 --> 03:02:13,240
of 40 is also 8. 
So I that the Colts volume, the 

2874
03:02:13,240 --> 03:02:18,480
Colts passing volume just is 
like Michael Pittman has to be 

2875
03:02:18,480 --> 03:02:23,000
in the absolute nut worse 
situation for a player like 

2876
03:02:23,000 --> 03:02:25,920
Michael Pittman. 
Like you're talking possession 

2877
03:02:25,920 --> 03:02:31,720
receiver in an offense that's 
going to have next to the lowest

2878
03:02:31,720 --> 03:02:35,640
volume in the league. 
And the vast majority of the 

2879
03:02:35,640 --> 03:02:39,160
stuff that they want to do is 
like take these big deep shots. 

2880
03:02:39,160 --> 03:02:43,640
Like Shane Saiken was really 
smart in how he used Anthony 

2881
03:02:43,640 --> 03:02:46,600
Richardson to his strengths. 
So it was like none of this 

2882
03:02:46,600 --> 03:02:48,560
Dinka dunk shit. 
We know you can't hit the 

2883
03:02:48,560 --> 03:02:51,400
broadside of a barn if it's 10 
yards away from you, but we do 

2884
03:02:51,400 --> 03:02:54,200
know that you can drop it in a 
bucket if it's 70 yards 

2885
03:02:54,200 --> 03:02:56,720
downfield. 
And so that was what they did. 

2886
03:02:56,720 --> 03:03:00,400
They were like, you want to just
throw another 60 yard bomb, OK. 

2887
03:03:00,760 --> 03:03:06,200
And so Michael Pittman is in the
absolute nightmare scenario for 

2888
03:03:06,760 --> 03:03:10,120
Michael Pittman. 
Like I would, I would rather 

2889
03:03:10,120 --> 03:03:14,280
have Michael Pittman. 
Like if if Michael Pittman and 

2890
03:03:14,280 --> 03:03:18,240
Jacoby Myers could trade places,
I would rather have Michael 

2891
03:03:18,240 --> 03:03:20,760
Pittman on the Raiders as the 
wider Seeker 2 than Michael 

2892
03:03:20,760 --> 03:03:25,560
Pittman on the the Colts as the 
wider Seeker 1. 

2893
03:03:30,720 --> 03:03:34,680
Yeah, I, I mean, I, I, I think 
that's fair that some of the, 

2894
03:03:34,680 --> 03:03:39,280
some of the the situation stuff 
for Pitman is bad. 

2895
03:03:41,720 --> 03:03:48,640
But to get them to get this many
for just, it's tricky to get 

2896
03:03:48,640 --> 03:03:55,120
this many to get 30. 
So 36 routes and and then then 

2897
03:03:55,120 --> 03:03:59,880
targeted on just 8% of those. 
And what's that? 

2898
03:03:59,880 --> 03:04:06,120
3 targets and he catches just 
one of them. 

2899
03:04:06,720 --> 03:04:10,880
Like I, I, I think that's pretty
panicky. 

2900
03:04:11,400 --> 03:04:13,040
No, yeah, you're not. 
I mean, you're not you're not 

2901
03:04:13,040 --> 03:04:15,480
happy to see it for Marvin 
Harrison Junior, certainly. 

2902
03:04:15,480 --> 03:04:19,440
But I think I'm I'm willing to 
to give it a little time. 

2903
03:04:19,600 --> 03:04:26,360
So let's let's try and mow 
through this the rest of this 

2904
03:04:26,360 --> 03:04:32,160
chart quickly. 
Tank Dell running running a lot 

2905
03:04:32,160 --> 03:04:34,720
of routes. 
A lot of people concerned that 

2906
03:04:34,720 --> 03:04:36,960
he might not run the full 
complement of routes. 

2907
03:04:38,080 --> 03:04:41,320
It turns out he is still going 
to be running a lot of the 

2908
03:04:41,320 --> 03:04:44,160
routes. 
In fact, I believe Nico ran 

2909
03:04:44,160 --> 03:04:46,720
fewer routes than Tank. 
Am I I correct on that? 

2910
03:04:47,280 --> 03:04:50,160
And let me pull that up right 
now. 

2911
03:04:50,160 --> 03:04:53,600
But yeah, I, I did see that like
he was only, I think he was, he 

2912
03:04:53,600 --> 03:04:57,800
was playing exclusively or 
mostly in, in tree wide receiver

2913
03:04:57,800 --> 03:05:04,200
sets. 
And but they, they ran a lot of 

2914
03:05:04,600 --> 03:05:07,200
tree wide receiver sets was a 
lot of their formation when it 

2915
03:05:07,200 --> 03:05:12,960
decided to pass it. 
And yeah, he was 87 to 84% and 

2916
03:05:13,400 --> 03:05:18,280
for 87 for Tank, 84 for Nico, 
and then 89% for digs. 

2917
03:05:19,720 --> 03:05:22,960
Yeah, I think I think the answer
to Texas wide receiver was just 

2918
03:05:22,960 --> 03:05:26,880
yes, this offseason, like the CJ
Stroud looks really good. 

2919
03:05:27,680 --> 03:05:30,400
You're just you're just hoping 
that Joe Mixon's not going to 

2920
03:05:30,400 --> 03:05:33,400
get 30 touches a game. 
And if that's the bet that 

2921
03:05:33,400 --> 03:05:36,640
you're making me make, you're 
like Joe Mixon needs to get 

2922
03:05:36,640 --> 03:05:40,560
fewer than 30 carries a game. 
And all the Texans receivers are

2923
03:05:40,560 --> 03:05:43,240
going to be incredible picks and
be like, where do I sign? 

2924
03:05:43,560 --> 03:05:46,880
Like how, how, how much of these
players will you allow me to 

2925
03:05:46,880 --> 03:05:51,360
draft then looking looking very.
Good it it was a definitely a 

2926
03:05:51,360 --> 03:05:54,120
high volume day for the offense.
I think they had a lot of they 

2927
03:05:54,120 --> 03:05:59,680
had a lot of what you call it 
and plays right. 

2928
03:05:59,680 --> 03:06:03,480
And so that's some of why Joe 
Mixon has so many carries. 

2929
03:06:04,080 --> 03:06:11,000
But on those days where a, let's
say the Texans need to win a 

2930
03:06:11,000 --> 03:06:15,200
game, it's it's far more likely 
to come from the receivers 

2931
03:06:15,200 --> 03:06:16,480
that's going to help them win 
the game. 

2932
03:06:17,240 --> 03:06:20,200
And then if you get a low volume
day, it's going to crush Mixon 

2933
03:06:20,200 --> 03:06:23,720
probably a lot more. 
Than the guys agree. 

2934
03:06:25,240 --> 03:06:28,160
Anyone else on this chart that 
you wanna hit on before we move 

2935
03:06:28,160 --> 03:06:33,760
to the next one? 
And no, not really. 

2936
03:06:35,280 --> 03:06:44,920
I think we kind of covered it. 
OK, man, this OK, so I would say

2937
03:06:44,920 --> 03:06:48,440
this was my favorite chart after
we put all the charts together, 

2938
03:06:49,000 --> 03:06:52,200
but the last one with Jameson 
Williams being the absolute 

2939
03:06:52,200 --> 03:06:55,560
chart breaking monster was was 
probably my favorite. 

2940
03:06:56,320 --> 03:07:01,880
But man, this one's a close 
second because the Jayden Reed 

2941
03:07:02,920 --> 03:07:06,480
dude, can you, can you explain 
to me why the guy who was like, 

2942
03:07:06,480 --> 03:07:08,880
what did he finish last year? 
He was like wide receiver 28. 

2943
03:07:08,920 --> 03:07:12,240
He's getting drafted as wide 
receiver. 35A season where he 

2944
03:07:12,240 --> 03:07:16,040
had over 200 fantasy points, 
last year where he was in time 

2945
03:07:16,040 --> 03:07:18,760
with injury. 
Clearly, and miss Price all 

2946
03:07:18,840 --> 03:07:20,320
offseason. 
Just. 

2947
03:07:20,320 --> 03:07:25,720
The the kicker is that he 
actually had a 74% rent share. 

2948
03:07:26,120 --> 03:07:28,240
Yeah. 
Which was tied with Christian 

2949
03:07:28,240 --> 03:07:32,840
Watson. 
I'm just below or say below at 

2950
03:07:32,840 --> 03:07:37,400
Romeo Dobbs at 89%, but to have 
somebody who's in has that 

2951
03:07:37,400 --> 03:07:41,760
insane efficiency on for snap 
basis and now he's actually 

2952
03:07:41,760 --> 03:07:46,520
going to be playing like on with
the same route share where he's 

2953
03:07:46,520 --> 03:07:52,120
in the same chart as Tyreek, 
Debo, Rashi, CD Lam, Mike Evans.

2954
03:07:52,120 --> 03:07:58,560
So starter level snaps is what 
I'm getting at that like he had 

2955
03:07:58,560 --> 03:08:03,280
an awesome week 1 and not like 
certainly not expecting about 30

2956
03:08:03,280 --> 03:08:07,640
points every week, but set up to
absolutely smash. 

2957
03:08:08,600 --> 03:08:13,840
Yeah, Jaden Reed should probably
be like a a second round pick 

2958
03:08:13,840 --> 03:08:16,720
next year. 
Like I don't think that's I I 

2959
03:08:16,720 --> 03:08:20,560
think that's, you know, I don't 
want to call it a lock, but like

2960
03:08:20,880 --> 03:08:25,000
he is very clearly one of the 
more talented receivers in the 

2961
03:08:25,000 --> 03:08:28,040
league. 
I would you. 

2962
03:08:28,040 --> 03:08:31,440
Still start him with Malik 
Willis as the quarterback. 

2963
03:08:31,440 --> 03:08:33,400
If that's the that's. 
That's the tricky question. 

2964
03:08:34,000 --> 03:08:37,280
It depends on what I have, but I
I was talking to some people 

2965
03:08:37,280 --> 03:08:42,320
about this and Jayden Reid as 
far as his profile is going to 

2966
03:08:42,320 --> 03:08:46,080
be more quarterback proof than 
the other receivers on the 

2967
03:08:46,080 --> 03:08:47,600
Packers right where he's gonna 
get they're. 

2968
03:08:47,600 --> 03:08:50,280
Gonna run a lot of jet sweeps. 
He's gonna, he's gonna get 

2969
03:08:50,280 --> 03:08:51,880
carries. 
He's gonna get short 

2970
03:08:51,880 --> 03:08:56,600
manufactured stuff like when 
when it's the second quarter and

2971
03:08:56,800 --> 03:09:01,120
Malik Willis has two completed 
passes for 12 yards. 

2972
03:09:01,120 --> 03:09:04,000
Like, you don't think that 
they're dialing up the Jaden 

2973
03:09:04,000 --> 03:09:08,160
Reed bubble screens like that? 
That is like, absolutely. 

2974
03:09:08,760 --> 03:09:12,120
The question is not when Jaden 
Reed bubble screen, it's how 

2975
03:09:12,120 --> 03:09:14,960
many Jaden Reed bubble screens 
are going to happen in that 

2976
03:09:14,960 --> 03:09:18,240
game. 
So yeah, I'm likely starting 

2977
03:09:18,240 --> 03:09:24,320
him. 
I just, this was a, to me, like 

2978
03:09:24,320 --> 03:09:28,120
a relatively clear situation 
where he was the most talented 

2979
03:09:28,120 --> 03:09:33,120
receiver on his team, right? 
And I, I think that people got 

2980
03:09:33,120 --> 03:09:36,520
blinded by the fact that the 
offense as a whole was efficient

2981
03:09:36,520 --> 03:09:40,520
last year. 
And so it kind of like for 

2982
03:09:40,520 --> 03:09:43,400
people that weren't watching the
games, it was a way to kind of 

2983
03:09:43,680 --> 03:09:47,680
obscure the talent gap from 
Jaden Reed to the other 

2984
03:09:47,680 --> 03:09:50,040
receivers. 
But like, if you watched them 

2985
03:09:50,040 --> 03:09:56,000
play, like add a little bit of 
context to the data, it, it was 

2986
03:09:56,000 --> 03:09:58,400
pretty clear that the guy was 
smashing. 

2987
03:09:58,400 --> 03:10:01,960
That's why we were over on him 
the whole summer in our ranks. 

2988
03:10:01,960 --> 03:10:04,960
Like he was the best receiver on
the team and he was going too 

2989
03:10:04,960 --> 03:10:08,480
late. 
Right then the other one that's 

2990
03:10:08,480 --> 03:10:10,120
a little that's the most 
surprising. 

2991
03:10:10,120 --> 03:10:15,640
That is despite all of the 
injury stuff and, and, and kind 

2992
03:10:15,640 --> 03:10:21,000
of like less emphasis on Tyler 
Rocket and he we forgot about 

2993
03:10:21,000 --> 03:10:22,640
him, but he did not forget about
us. 

2994
03:10:22,840 --> 03:10:26,200
He did not. 
No, Tyler Lockett stuffed it 

2995
03:10:26,200 --> 03:10:29,360
down my throat week one. 
I was, I was making tons of 

2996
03:10:29,600 --> 03:10:35,760
Tyler Lockett realtor jokes this
offseason and he he closed on me

2997
03:10:35,760 --> 03:10:38,240
in Week 1. 
I mean, it wasn't a monster box 

2998
03:10:38,240 --> 03:10:42,080
score or anything, but it was 
very clear that like, his role 

2999
03:10:42,080 --> 03:10:44,240
has not disappeared. 
I am. 

3000
03:10:44,240 --> 03:10:49,440
Right, his snap share is down, 
it is just 71% route share, but 

3001
03:10:49,440 --> 03:10:57,960
then 13.4 A .35% Tigers bread 
run like still very, very 

3002
03:10:57,960 --> 03:11:02,520
important to the offense. 
Yeah, I think if you were and I,

3003
03:11:02,520 --> 03:11:05,000
I didn't, I don't even think I 
ended up underweight. 

3004
03:11:05,000 --> 03:11:08,040
Tyler Locket cut so much from 
early in drafts and he was going

3005
03:11:08,040 --> 03:11:12,400
so late, but then he he rose a 
lot and then he he ended up 

3006
03:11:12,400 --> 03:11:15,840
falling a lot again later at the
very end of the summer. 

3007
03:11:18,280 --> 03:11:24,000
But I, I think really like, if 
you're light on Tyler Lockett, 

3008
03:11:24,000 --> 03:11:27,400
what your, your thesis is or 
what you're hoping for is that 

3009
03:11:27,880 --> 03:11:30,960
he does something kind of like 
Alvin Kamara, where starts the 

3010
03:11:30,960 --> 03:11:33,720
season. 
Well, like is, is productive, 

3011
03:11:33,720 --> 03:11:38,000
like good picket cost hitting 
double S for you, but that the 

3012
03:11:38,160 --> 03:11:41,800
the absolute ceiling isn't there
and he's going to taper off as 

3013
03:11:41,800 --> 03:11:46,000
the season goes. 
But man, yeah, week week 1 looks

3014
03:11:46,000 --> 03:11:53,040
solid for his role in usage. 
And yeah, for sure, for sure. 

3015
03:11:54,160 --> 03:11:57,680
And you're, and you're right as 
like he had a, he's a, he had a 

3016
03:11:57,680 --> 03:12:01,440
fast start and which maybe we 
should have expected as a 

3017
03:12:01,440 --> 03:12:05,240
veteran and not overreact to it,
right? 

3018
03:12:05,360 --> 03:12:09,480
But a little bit, a little bit 
of a humble pie. 

3019
03:12:09,720 --> 03:12:13,720
And based on that, what we we 
thought was kind of for sure 

3020
03:12:13,720 --> 03:12:17,600
slam dunk that he was going to 
right off into the sunset. 

3021
03:12:19,360 --> 03:12:25,600
Man, this, this chart is so 
stacked with good receiver like 

3022
03:12:25,800 --> 03:12:30,280
this top right quadrant is just 
like a murderer's row. 

3023
03:12:31,080 --> 03:12:33,720
I mean, there's a couple guys in
here that probably do not 

3024
03:12:33,720 --> 03:12:38,840
belong, like Alec Pierce and 
Brandon Cooks, you know, but I, 

3025
03:12:38,840 --> 03:12:43,680
I think that if you just said, 
hey, I'm going to give you, you 

3026
03:12:43,680 --> 03:12:47,120
get to have this top right 
quadrant of receivers and that's

3027
03:12:47,200 --> 03:12:49,840
all your exposure for the whole 
season for fantasy. 

3028
03:12:50,400 --> 03:12:53,920
I think I'm going to do just 
fine because like Brian Thomas 

3029
03:12:53,920 --> 03:12:58,520
junior looks very good. 
He, he might just end up 

3030
03:12:58,800 --> 03:13:02,160
dominating targets there, which 
that was the big, the, the big 

3031
03:13:02,160 --> 03:13:04,800
concern was, oh, he might be 
just like a deep ball guy. 

3032
03:13:04,800 --> 03:13:07,320
Him and Gabe Davis might be 
running wind sprints, clearing 

3033
03:13:07,320 --> 03:13:10,640
stuff out for Christian Kirk and
Evan Ingram. 

3034
03:13:11,200 --> 03:13:17,040
I do think the the Jags were 
very game plan dependent last 

3035
03:13:17,040 --> 03:13:18,960
year. 
Like there were games where 

3036
03:13:18,960 --> 03:13:22,560
Christian Kirk and Evan Ingram 
just feast because it that was 

3037
03:13:22,560 --> 03:13:26,960
the plan like attack underneath.
And they they didn't really have

3038
03:13:27,160 --> 03:13:30,600
terribly functional deep stuff 
like because they were not all 

3039
03:13:30,600 --> 03:13:32,440
that creative deploying Calvin 
Ridley. 

3040
03:13:32,440 --> 03:13:36,040
And he's probably not as good a 
player as Brian Thomas is at 

3041
03:13:36,040 --> 03:13:39,320
this point in his career. 
So I'm interested to see if 

3042
03:13:39,320 --> 03:13:42,640
Brian Thomas can be like a like 
the true alpha there. 

3043
03:13:43,200 --> 03:13:46,680
And I think what we saw Week 1 
is like, you know, it's, it's 

3044
03:13:46,680 --> 03:13:50,160
not, it's not what we saw from 
Jameson where it's like empty 

3045
03:13:50,160 --> 03:13:54,880
the clip on him. 
But at the same time, it's like 

3046
03:13:55,360 --> 03:13:58,160
it could be the last stop on the
train for Brian Thomas, too. 

3047
03:13:59,200 --> 03:14:05,920
So yeah, you got you have a 20% 
target spread run and on 77% 

3048
03:14:05,920 --> 03:14:10,960
route share and so you're and 
then 2.4 yards per out run. 

3049
03:14:11,200 --> 03:14:16,560
So that that's kind of like more
of your typical rookie upside 

3050
03:14:16,560 --> 03:14:21,680
profile where a lot of meat on 
the bone there to increase the 

3051
03:14:21,680 --> 03:14:24,520
route share. 
And then but he's also playing 

3052
03:14:24,520 --> 03:14:30,400
very well when he's in there. 
So easily could see him becoming

3053
03:14:30,400 --> 03:14:31,520
the alpha by the end of the 
year. 

3054
03:14:33,600 --> 03:14:37,760
And the other guy, the other 
Speaking of rookies, the other 

3055
03:14:37,760 --> 03:14:44,720
guy who wanted to talk about was
Loud Mcconkey, who he actually 

3056
03:14:44,720 --> 03:14:50,360
seems to come in pretty much 
close to what you what should 

3057
03:14:50,360 --> 03:14:57,240
have been expected where he had 
a 32% target spread run on just 

3058
03:14:57,240 --> 03:15:00,600
a 6A dot. 
SO just racking up those targets

3059
03:15:00,600 --> 03:15:05,400
from slot and and then just a 
76% route share. 

3060
03:15:06,640 --> 03:15:10,120
I think that's that one is a bit
more interesting because like 

3061
03:15:10,120 --> 03:15:13,000
the knock was always like, well,
he doesn't actually, he never 

3062
03:15:13,000 --> 03:15:20,200
actually runs that many routes. 
And but but I think I'm lad 

3063
03:15:20,200 --> 03:15:22,480
Mcconkey was going ahead of 
Brian Thomas for a lot of the 

3064
03:15:22,480 --> 03:15:27,400
offseason. 
And I think that's I think week 

3065
03:15:27,400 --> 03:15:32,760
1 is pretty strong evidence that
he shouldn't he should go after 

3066
03:15:32,840 --> 03:15:34,560
Brian Thomas. 
He should be going after Brian 

3067
03:15:34,560 --> 03:15:39,320
Thomas and it's a profile. 
It's honestly a profile that's 

3068
03:15:39,320 --> 03:15:42,600
hard to start right now because 
you don't have the upside true 

3069
03:15:42,600 --> 03:15:50,080
to your efficiency and then you,
you, you, you're, then you're I 

3070
03:15:50,080 --> 03:15:55,080
guess you're hoping for a big 
increase in it's not sure right 

3071
03:15:55,080 --> 03:15:58,200
now anyway. 
Yeah, yeah, I think, I mean 

3072
03:15:58,400 --> 03:16:01,440
Mcconkey and and Brian Thomas 
are going right next to each 

3073
03:16:01,440 --> 03:16:05,480
other like you could you're able
to get him, you know, like 6-7 

3074
03:16:05,480 --> 03:16:08,960
turn on underdog and I think if 
you found yourself. 

3075
03:16:08,960 --> 03:16:10,960
That was FFPC brand for me then 
I guess. 

3076
03:16:11,800 --> 03:16:15,040
If you found yourself double 
tapping the Mcconkey, Brian 

3077
03:16:15,040 --> 03:16:19,880
Thomas on the turn there, you 
got to feel extremely good about

3078
03:16:19,880 --> 03:16:23,360
that. 
You know, the the other guys 

3079
03:16:23,360 --> 03:16:27,720
going around there like DeAndre 
Hopkins before the injury, JSN 

3080
03:16:27,720 --> 03:16:31,920
Christian Watson, like all those
guys. 

3081
03:16:32,320 --> 03:16:36,320
I'm I'm very strongly prefer bro
both Brian Thomas and 

3082
03:16:36,320 --> 03:16:38,640
Lambaconkey to all of those 
players right now. 

3083
03:16:39,880 --> 03:16:43,960
I just think the upside for both
of them is clear and it's the 

3084
03:16:43,960 --> 03:16:48,040
fact that you're getting like 
clear runway early for these 

3085
03:16:48,040 --> 03:16:51,640
exciting rookie profiles is 
really, really bullish to me. 

3086
03:16:52,800 --> 03:16:56,160
I just think these are guys that
you you really want a piece of 

3087
03:16:57,720 --> 03:17:00,560
and if you have the ability to 
get them, you know, if you're in

3088
03:17:00,560 --> 03:17:04,880
a redraft league and you can get
these guys before they get big, 

3089
03:17:04,880 --> 03:17:07,760
like that's that to me is a good
opportunity. 

3090
03:17:09,600 --> 03:17:13,080
The other one, this is this is 
probably like the best. 

3091
03:17:15,480 --> 03:17:18,880
I mean it it's it's kind of hard
for redraft because I don't know

3092
03:17:18,880 --> 03:17:22,800
how how you'd actually go about 
choosing when to start this 

3093
03:17:22,800 --> 03:17:26,040
player, but maybe he just 
becomes so dominant that it 

3094
03:17:26,040 --> 03:17:29,760
doesn't matter. 
But AD Mitchell just like 

3095
03:17:29,800 --> 03:17:35,520
barely, barely missing on having
a monster day like 2, you know, 

3096
03:17:35,680 --> 03:17:38,880
2 potential huge touchdowns for 
him. 

3097
03:17:40,840 --> 03:17:45,440
I mean, AD Mitchell could be 
really exciting and he just 

3098
03:17:46,000 --> 03:17:51,080
gosh, I mean, if you just wanted
Alec Pierce, but like he he 

3099
03:17:51,080 --> 03:17:53,520
looks really good. 
So like, and and you know, in 

3100
03:17:53,640 --> 03:17:57,640
his first game, he hasn't done 
anything really yet, but like 

3101
03:17:58,280 --> 03:18:00,960
we've seen enough of Alec Pierce
to know that he's probably not 

3102
03:18:00,960 --> 03:18:03,760
it. 
But man, IF80 Mitchell is just 

3103
03:18:03,760 --> 03:18:07,080
like the good version of Alec 
Pierce, that's going to be so 

3104
03:18:07,080 --> 03:18:10,360
exciting for this team. 
Probably a little hard to know 

3105
03:18:10,360 --> 03:18:15,520
when to start in fantasy, but if
he does, if he hits his ceiling 

3106
03:18:15,960 --> 03:18:18,800
where it's just like, couldn't 
you see? 

3107
03:18:18,800 --> 03:18:22,640
You know, like when you got the 
like, prime Gabe Davis season 

3108
03:18:22,640 --> 03:18:26,040
with Josh Allen, when it was 
just like, you don't know what? 

3109
03:18:26,280 --> 03:18:30,600
He's in, he's in play every week
in DFS until you get the the big

3110
03:18:30,600 --> 03:18:34,680
week where his his ownership 
goes up. 

3111
03:18:34,840 --> 03:18:36,800
That's a that's a great call, 
yeah. 

3112
03:18:36,800 --> 03:18:40,720
In in play every week. 
DFS play it play against the 

3113
03:18:40,720 --> 03:18:46,040
Packers next week. 
Aren't you worried about Zahra 

3114
03:18:46,040 --> 03:18:48,600
Alexander? 
Absolutely not. 

3115
03:18:49,560 --> 03:18:53,360
Yeah, I, I don't know how 
exciting that game's going to 

3116
03:18:53,360 --> 03:18:55,680
be. 
I'm like trying to find a fun 

3117
03:18:55,680 --> 03:18:58,960
match up where. 
But it might, it just looks like

3118
03:19:00,040 --> 03:19:02,560
it might be a thing where you 
just need to start playing AD 

3119
03:19:02,600 --> 03:19:05,120
Mitchell every week so that 
you're ahead of of when it 

3120
03:19:05,120 --> 03:19:08,480
happens. 
Right, he's going to be. 

3121
03:19:08,920 --> 03:19:11,080
I'm not. 
I'm not sure actually that's a 

3122
03:19:11,080 --> 03:19:13,280
good question of like what his 
salary is. 

3123
03:19:15,040 --> 03:19:17,000
He should be low. 
Should be really low. 

3124
03:19:17,360 --> 03:19:25,040
Probably a in the four KS the 
George George Pickens looked 

3125
03:19:25,040 --> 03:19:28,000
really good. 
You're just dealing with a low 

3126
03:19:28,000 --> 03:19:31,360
volume passing offense, but at 
least it's Justin Fields 

3127
03:19:31,360 --> 03:19:33,040
starting on the ball and not 
Russell Wilson. 

3128
03:19:35,480 --> 03:19:38,400
I mean, yeah, like if you have 
George Pickens on a basketball 

3129
03:19:38,400 --> 03:19:41,760
team right now, there's like, I 
think I'll just close my eyes 

3130
03:19:41,760 --> 03:19:44,360
and like, hope to wake up in 
Week 17 with George Pickens here

3131
03:19:44,360 --> 03:19:46,600
and like, hope that I get get 
the big game. 

3132
03:19:46,600 --> 03:19:50,920
Then I think you're going to get
a bunch of frustrating games 

3133
03:19:50,920 --> 03:19:54,080
where you're cursed Arthur 
Smith's name. 

3134
03:19:55,200 --> 03:19:59,680
So volume low and what then? 
Hope that you get some some of 

3135
03:19:59,680 --> 03:20:02,520
the big deep targets from Justin
Fields where he houses. 

3136
03:20:02,800 --> 03:20:05,120
It even it doesn't even have to 
be the deep targets either. 

3137
03:20:05,120 --> 03:20:08,040
Like George Pickens is the type 
of guy who can just take a slant

3138
03:20:08,040 --> 03:20:11,240
to the house to like some of his
biggest plays have just been 

3139
03:20:11,680 --> 03:20:16,960
like the vintage Odell Beckham 
slant to the house like and so I

3140
03:20:16,960 --> 03:20:20,040
can you just need him. 
You need him to give George 

3141
03:20:20,040 --> 03:20:25,360
Pickens some opportunities. 
I just, I would not want to bet 

3142
03:20:25,640 --> 03:20:29,760
on Arthur Smith, you know, 
giving the good players the 

3143
03:20:29,760 --> 03:20:30,800
opportunities. 
So. 

3144
03:20:32,760 --> 03:20:37,400
So the other the other thing on 
one of the note here where's and

3145
03:20:37,400 --> 03:20:41,000
it's getting overshadowed a 
little bit by Kell Williams and 

3146
03:20:41,640 --> 03:20:47,120
not playing well, but Keenan 
Allen absolutely beating the fat

3147
03:20:47,120 --> 03:20:50,920
Keenan allegations. 
Yeah, target, target dominator, 

3148
03:20:50,960 --> 03:20:55,080
just. 31% target threat run at 
11.68 on. 

3149
03:20:55,800 --> 03:21:00,160
So like and, and then and then I
think somebody saw that he 

3150
03:21:00,160 --> 03:21:04,400
actually, they, they noted that 
his actual weight was like 211 

3151
03:21:04,400 --> 03:21:07,560
lbs or something like that. 
Yeah, it was, it was a typo. 

3152
03:21:07,800 --> 03:21:11,880
The in the in the article that 
was talking about he, oh, he's 

3153
03:21:11,880 --> 03:21:14,520
up to 2:30. 
It was literally a typo. 

3154
03:21:15,080 --> 03:21:17,920
They meant to type the one 
number and they typed the three 

3155
03:21:17,920 --> 03:21:20,160
number. 
I'm not making that shit up. 

3156
03:21:20,640 --> 03:21:24,680
Like that's that's what we spent
all offseason worrying about. 

3157
03:21:24,800 --> 03:21:27,440
Someone fat fingered a number 
and we. 

3158
03:21:27,720 --> 03:21:30,280
In the in the notes app as well.
I think it was. 

3159
03:21:34,000 --> 03:21:38,560
Incredible. 
And so then the way we could 

3160
03:21:38,560 --> 03:21:42,960
potentially use that, like, do 
we just keep we keep playing Ken

3161
03:21:42,960 --> 03:21:45,440
Allen and hope that the offense 
turns around? 

3162
03:21:46,480 --> 03:21:51,560
Yeah, I mean, from what I saw, 
there was definitely one that 

3163
03:21:51,560 --> 03:21:54,520
looked like Keenan's fault on 
the on the missed connections 

3164
03:21:54,520 --> 03:21:56,680
there. 
And then there was another one 

3165
03:21:56,680 --> 03:22:01,920
where it was like a very clearly
poorly thrown ball that should 

3166
03:22:01,920 --> 03:22:06,360
have been a touchdown, I think. 
Yeah, with the Roma doonsay 

3167
03:22:06,400 --> 03:22:12,040
injury, I think Keenan just to 
me, this sets up as like if, if 

3168
03:22:12,040 --> 03:22:15,600
things get better for the Bears 
and Caleb, it's because him and 

3169
03:22:15,600 --> 03:22:20,920
Keenan get on the same page and 
he his you know, they they 

3170
03:22:20,920 --> 03:22:23,520
brought Keenan in to be the best
friend of their rookie 

3171
03:22:23,520 --> 03:22:25,280
quarterback. 
You know, let's right, let's 

3172
03:22:25,280 --> 03:22:28,040
give our rookie quarterback a 
guy who's going to be open for 

3173
03:22:28,040 --> 03:22:31,040
him. 
Like like think Adam Thielen for

3174
03:22:31,040 --> 03:22:34,360
the Panthers last year. 
But if he was a good player and 

3175
03:22:34,360 --> 03:22:36,680
so right. 
You know, he's in the meeting 

3176
03:22:36,680 --> 03:22:39,000
rooms every day. 
He's like, oh man, don't worry 

3177
03:22:39,000 --> 03:22:40,200
about it, we're going to get 
there. 

3178
03:22:40,680 --> 03:22:42,960
It's like, let's look, let's 
look at this getter and all that

3179
03:22:42,960 --> 03:22:46,080
kind of stuff. 
Yeah, Keenan, that's a pretty 

3180
03:22:46,080 --> 03:22:51,560
good one. 
Yeah, so the OK, the heel injury

3181
03:22:51,560 --> 03:22:54,280
stuff that I had seen was that 
it was literally a blister. 

3182
03:22:55,600 --> 03:23:00,880
So I don't know be be curious to
see, but I that was what I saw 

3183
03:23:00,960 --> 03:23:06,400
initially that. 
But anyway, yeah, Keenan, Keenan

3184
03:23:06,400 --> 03:23:08,840
absolutely dominating targets. 
I think it's probably a good 

3185
03:23:08,840 --> 03:23:12,040
idea to if you can get him, you 
know, if he's, I don't know 

3186
03:23:12,040 --> 03:23:16,080
where he's going, like in a dog 
bowl this week, But if you could

3187
03:23:16,080 --> 03:23:19,080
get him, you know, very cheap. 
That's right. 

3188
03:23:19,080 --> 03:23:21,040
Oh man. 
Right, he needs to be undrafted.

3189
03:23:21,200 --> 03:23:24,880
To be against the tech against 
the Texans too though, where you

3190
03:23:24,880 --> 03:23:28,520
could like what if the Texans 
just hang a bunch on the Bears 

3191
03:23:28,520 --> 03:23:30,320
and they get. 
Pushed. 

3192
03:23:30,320 --> 03:23:31,680
I don't think that's on the main
now. 

3193
03:23:32,640 --> 03:23:35,440
You're right, you're right. 
It's a it's a night sleep. 

3194
03:23:35,440 --> 03:23:39,760
It's the Sunday night game. 
Well, so you're saying it's 

3195
03:23:39,920 --> 03:23:41,680
Keenan Allen, captain for all 
the money? 

3196
03:23:42,680 --> 03:23:46,200
Well, you also it there's, 
there's, there's primetime 

3197
03:23:46,200 --> 03:23:48,280
Palooza. 
That's that's true. 

3198
03:23:49,080 --> 03:23:54,520
And so those are ones where. 
He'll be dropped 100%. 

3199
03:23:54,520 --> 03:23:56,760
Though, right? 
He'll be dropped 100%. 

3200
03:23:56,800 --> 03:24:04,520
He's the 123-4567. 
He's the 7th receiver on A2 game

3201
03:24:04,520 --> 03:24:08,760
slate, so I mean, that's 
something where you could 

3202
03:24:08,760 --> 03:24:12,280
certainly give a really nice hit
on. 

3203
03:24:12,840 --> 03:24:14,640
Yeah, that is, that's actually a
really good. 

3204
03:24:15,120 --> 03:24:19,600
That's a good call. 
Really quick, just kind of like 

3205
03:24:19,600 --> 03:24:22,360
chewing through this chart. 
Luke McCaffrey getting on the 

3206
03:24:22,360 --> 03:24:25,600
field a lot more than I think 
people thought he might. 

3207
03:24:25,840 --> 03:24:29,080
The problem is it's an 
unplayable offense for fantasy, 

3208
03:24:29,080 --> 03:24:32,240
so very cool to see Luke 
McCaffrey get a roll right away.

3209
03:24:32,680 --> 03:24:36,200
Unfortunate it will not matter 
at all this year. 

3210
03:24:36,200 --> 03:24:39,680
At least that's that's a little 
hyperbolic, but. 

3211
03:24:39,680 --> 03:24:43,000
You you can't it. 
It is an unplayable fantasy team

3212
03:24:43,000 --> 03:24:47,280
for fantasy, unfortunately. 
Yeah, Jalen Waddle. 

3213
03:24:47,280 --> 03:24:51,000
Oh man, all the all the people 
who told me you can never draft 

3214
03:24:51,560 --> 03:24:53,960
that Tyree Kill and Jalen Waddle
on the same team together 

3215
03:24:54,160 --> 03:24:57,520
because how could two players 
score fantasy points in the same

3216
03:24:57,520 --> 03:25:00,120
week if they're both catching 
passes for the same team? 

3217
03:25:00,560 --> 03:25:04,480
Simply can't be done. 
It turns out that people might 

3218
03:25:04,480 --> 03:25:06,960
be overestimating the negative 
correlation. 

3219
03:25:06,960 --> 03:25:10,160
It is a very very small amount 
of negative correlation between 

3220
03:25:10,160 --> 03:25:13,360
the players. 
They can definitely score a lot 

3221
03:25:13,360 --> 03:25:17,120
of points on the same week. 
Like Jalen Waddle going over 100

3222
03:25:17,120 --> 03:25:22,960
yards, Tyree Kill going nuclear.
Like just silly silliness to me.

3223
03:25:22,960 --> 03:25:26,400
Like it turns out that Jalen 
Waddle, the wide receiver who is

3224
03:25:26,400 --> 03:25:29,720
a very good picket cost, you 
could also draft with his 

3225
03:25:29,720 --> 03:25:31,640
teammate who is a very good 
picket cost. 

3226
03:25:31,680 --> 03:25:37,280
So let's see other other guys 
here. 

3227
03:25:37,360 --> 03:25:39,960
I think I think we covered most 
everyone. 

3228
03:25:40,720 --> 03:25:45,080
Yeah, I think I think we can we 
can move on to the last chart 

3229
03:25:45,080 --> 03:25:50,120
here, which is so these are the 
40 to 70% rights run guys where 

3230
03:25:50,680 --> 03:25:54,080
and they're not necessarily 
well. 

3231
03:25:55,480 --> 03:25:58,120
So for example, Jordan Addison 
is here because he got injured 

3232
03:25:58,400 --> 03:26:02,280
and they're not necessarily 
startable for fantasy. 

3233
03:26:02,280 --> 03:26:05,640
But when we see them in the in 
the top right hand corner of the

3234
03:26:05,640 --> 03:26:09,840
chart and especially like, let's
say a rookie like Xavier Leget 

3235
03:26:10,240 --> 03:26:16,680
and oh, he's playing well on 
what, 50 to 60% route share? 

3236
03:26:17,040 --> 03:26:21,280
That's the type of performance 
that could push him into into 

3237
03:26:21,280 --> 03:26:26,560
starter territory. 
And for the Panthers, how much 

3238
03:26:26,560 --> 03:26:28,680
does that matter? 
I I don't know. 

3239
03:26:28,680 --> 03:26:32,880
But honestly, getting at just 
under eight points a game on 

3240
03:26:33,000 --> 03:26:40,760
5050 to 60% route share that if 
he can deliver on that promise, 

3241
03:26:40,760 --> 03:26:41,920
that could be pretty 
interesting. 

3242
03:26:42,920 --> 03:26:46,400
You really you just need the 
Panthers to find a way to be 

3243
03:26:47,200 --> 03:26:50,480
pseudo competent and he could be
really interesting. 

3244
03:26:51,600 --> 03:27:02,120
So that's a 30% targets per run 
and on A17A dot and 1 1/2 yards 

3245
03:27:02,120 --> 03:27:10,480
per run now Jon and Mingo got 
26%, Beyoncé Johnson got 22%. 

3246
03:27:11,120 --> 03:27:14,000
So like that, that might be a 
true like in the Lamb of the 

3247
03:27:14,280 --> 03:27:17,440
blind, the one eyed man catches 
target. 

3248
03:27:17,720 --> 03:27:20,680
The whole Panthers offense. 
I just noticed this on this 

3249
03:27:20,680 --> 03:27:22,760
chart. 
It's disgusting. 

3250
03:27:23,200 --> 03:27:26,960
And none of them are over 8 
fantasy points per game. 

3251
03:27:28,400 --> 03:27:31,280
So so over. 
Oh my God. 

3252
03:27:32,840 --> 03:27:35,960
Well, I mean, I I can see some 
life for like look at. 

3253
03:27:36,600 --> 03:27:41,840
No, no, there's yeah. 
The it's you really you need, 

3254
03:27:41,840 --> 03:27:43,680
you need the offense as a whole 
to improve. 

3255
03:27:43,680 --> 03:27:47,040
It's not a it's not a player, 
it's not an individual player 

3256
03:27:47,040 --> 03:27:49,560
type thing here. 
I mean, unless the individual 

3257
03:27:49,560 --> 03:27:51,000
player you're talking about is 
Bryce Young. 

3258
03:27:51,120 --> 03:27:54,480
Like you need, you need Bryce 
Young to take a step the 

3259
03:27:54,480 --> 03:27:58,400
receivers. 
If he, if he goes from, if he 

3260
03:27:58,400 --> 03:28:07,320
goes from 59% Reds to like 90% 
routes and, and and and continue

3261
03:28:07,360 --> 03:28:09,960
playing like that, he can get 
like what, 12 points a game? 

3262
03:28:10,320 --> 03:28:12,520
Yeah, I think you're just. 
You're just hoping that Xavier 

3263
03:28:12,520 --> 03:28:14,640
Legette eats Jonathan Mingo, 
right? 

3264
03:28:15,320 --> 03:28:21,360
Why does the larger receiver 
simply not eat the smaller which

3265
03:28:21,400 --> 03:28:22,840
like that I'm? 
Sure. 

3266
03:28:23,240 --> 03:28:27,480
That seems honestly like if you 
made me guess, that seems like 

3267
03:28:27,480 --> 03:28:29,960
the most likely thing to happen,
right? 

3268
03:28:29,960 --> 03:28:32,800
Like Jonathan Mingo was 
atrocious last year. 

3269
03:28:32,800 --> 03:28:36,720
I think this is this Jonathan 
Mingo running routes thing right

3270
03:28:36,720 --> 03:28:40,640
now is just like the bears doing
the Bayless Jones cope. 

3271
03:28:40,640 --> 03:28:43,240
Like please, please tell us we 
didn't waste this pick. 

3272
03:28:43,240 --> 03:28:46,400
Please. 
It's got to work like so I 

3273
03:28:46,440 --> 03:28:48,120
think. 
But like it it, it feels like a 

3274
03:28:48,120 --> 03:28:52,280
pretty good bet for a Round 1 
rookie to, yeah, increase our 

3275
03:28:52,280 --> 03:28:53,960
right share as the season goes 
on. 

3276
03:28:54,200 --> 03:28:57,600
That feels reasonable. 
So that's that's interesting. 

3277
03:28:58,560 --> 03:29:03,400
And then I think we mentioned 
that Ray, Ray McLeod and his his

3278
03:29:03,400 --> 03:29:06,360
stuff is just like, that's just 
the offense being bad. 

3279
03:29:06,600 --> 03:29:11,040
Yeah, that's just. 
Are you hoping for, you're 

3280
03:29:11,040 --> 03:29:14,120
hoping for the Pop Double 
Douglas stuff from last year, 

3281
03:29:14,480 --> 03:29:17,200
but I think Pop Douglas is 
probably a much better player 

3282
03:29:17,200 --> 03:29:20,960
than Ray Ray McLeod. 
Yeah, Yeah, I would. 

3283
03:29:21,040 --> 03:29:23,440
I would agree. 
I think the Ray Ray McLeod stuff

3284
03:29:23,440 --> 03:29:26,040
is, is not something that you 
want to chase. 

3285
03:29:26,040 --> 03:29:31,960
That's just yeah, the one one 
that like if we're going to 

3286
03:29:31,960 --> 03:29:35,200
leave a light on for Xavier 
Leget, we also probably need to 

3287
03:29:35,200 --> 03:29:39,720
leave a light on for Devon Valet
because it doesn't. 

3288
03:29:40,320 --> 03:29:44,360
What matters in a Sean Payton 
offense is that Sean Payton 

3289
03:29:44,360 --> 03:29:48,600
likes you and Sean Payton likes 
Devon Valet and he's a rookie 

3290
03:29:48,600 --> 03:29:51,000
cronyism offense. 
Yes, yeah. 

3291
03:29:51,280 --> 03:29:55,040
And, and so listen, the, the 
biggest, there's, there's two 

3292
03:29:55,040 --> 03:29:57,600
really big factors that Devon 
Vilay has going for him. 

3293
03:29:57,880 --> 03:30:01,960
One, Sean Payton has given him 
his stamp of approval, right? 

3294
03:30:01,960 --> 03:30:05,400
He's a rookie that was on the 
field a lot week one, right? 

3295
03:30:05,400 --> 03:30:10,880
He's out there running 60 to 65%
of routes #2 his competition is 

3296
03:30:10,880 --> 03:30:17,080
Courtland Sutton, who did not 
look good, and Lil Jordan 

3297
03:30:17,080 --> 03:30:19,840
Humphrey. 
And who, who is the other? 

3298
03:30:20,560 --> 03:30:23,360
Who's the other? 
Josh Reynolds said. 

3299
03:30:23,360 --> 03:30:26,960
They were, yeah. 
Like so that. 

3300
03:30:27,160 --> 03:30:30,560
I'm a little, I'm a little. 
So his A dot was just two. 

3301
03:30:31,720 --> 03:30:36,080
And so you have somebody who's 
like 61% right share and then 

3302
03:30:36,080 --> 03:30:40,240
they rack up these two 2 yard A 
dot throws. 

3303
03:30:40,720 --> 03:30:44,760
That feels a little gimmicky. 
I mean that was but that was the

3304
03:30:44,760 --> 03:30:46,760
offense too. 
Like Bo Nicks is adjusted yards 

3305
03:30:46,760 --> 03:30:52,600
per attempt was also like 2 so I
don't know. 

3306
03:30:52,600 --> 03:30:57,560
Courtland Sutton A .13 Josh 
Randalls a dot 8.4 Marvin. 

3307
03:30:57,560 --> 03:30:59,240
Mayo's Turkey. 
That's scary little Jordan 

3308
03:30:59,240 --> 03:31:04,040
Humphrey 5 so like that that 
that that screams like their the

3309
03:31:04,040 --> 03:31:09,240
Rondelle Jones, Sam Rondell Murr
and yeah, rookie your usage. 

3310
03:31:09,480 --> 03:31:13,400
We're like more if that's the. 
Thing freakishly tall and slow, 

3311
03:31:15,440 --> 03:31:17,600
right? 
Why are they running that stuff 

3312
03:31:17,600 --> 03:31:21,000
with this guy? 
Sean Payton doesn't have to make

3313
03:31:21,000 --> 03:31:25,080
a lot of sense. 
Yeah. 

3314
03:31:25,080 --> 03:31:30,120
I mean right now no other real 
guys to like put on the watch 

3315
03:31:30,120 --> 03:31:33,600
list yet from this chart. 
You know, somebody I'm a little 

3316
03:31:33,600 --> 03:31:40,640
surprised to see on this chart 
is, is Poke where I guess 62% 

3317
03:31:40,640 --> 03:31:42,680
red chair. 
So that kind of suggests it's a 

3318
03:31:42,680 --> 03:31:47,200
little bit more of a committee 
and because the top is Douglas, 

3319
03:31:47,200 --> 03:31:52,560
that's 76% and so definitely 
room to run there on the route 

3320
03:31:52,560 --> 03:31:59,440
share and the the Patriots stuff
is kind of a joke to be honest 

3321
03:31:59,440 --> 03:32:00,520
because. 
Oh yeah. 

3322
03:32:01,200 --> 03:32:05,960
Poke is is 6% target for a run 
and then KJ Osborne. 

3323
03:32:07,200 --> 03:32:13,640
Target Dominator 43 to you. 43%.
Yeah, no, the the Patriots, I 

3324
03:32:13,640 --> 03:32:17,320
mean, so the Patriots are 
entirely, you know, they're just

3325
03:32:17,320 --> 03:32:21,000
a total hands off for, you know,
for like a redraft. 

3326
03:32:21,000 --> 03:32:23,760
You'd never have a Patriots 
player on your roster or start 

3327
03:32:23,760 --> 03:32:25,960
them right now. 
Like even Polk is not worth a 

3328
03:32:25,960 --> 03:32:27,920
stash right now. 
I would say if, as long as 

3329
03:32:27,920 --> 03:32:29,000
there's someone better on the 
way. 

3330
03:32:29,000 --> 03:32:31,720
You dropped in Polk in the main.
Do you think somebody should 

3331
03:32:31,720 --> 03:32:35,440
drop drop them? 
If, if there's anything on, like

3332
03:32:35,520 --> 03:32:39,240
if Samaj P Ryan is on waivers 
still, you know. 

3333
03:32:41,400 --> 03:32:48,560
He it, it, it'll be stuff like, 
it'll be stuff like Jalen Naylor

3334
03:32:49,160 --> 03:32:51,040
or. 
No, like you're not dropping him

3335
03:32:51,040 --> 03:32:54,920
for Jalen Naylor, right? 
Maybe Greg Dorch. 

3336
03:32:56,160 --> 03:32:58,640
You're only, you're only 
dropping him for Greg Dorch if 

3337
03:32:58,640 --> 03:33:02,360
you need production right now, 
terribly so. 

3338
03:33:02,360 --> 03:33:06,280
So no, you're not. 
You're not dropping him, but 

3339
03:33:06,280 --> 03:33:09,720
he's cuttable should you need. 
Like if he's the worst player on

3340
03:33:09,720 --> 03:33:13,040
your roster and you and there's 
something good to pick up, he's 

3341
03:33:13,040 --> 03:33:16,240
cuttable right now. 
And he's he's, he's kind of on 

3342
03:33:16,240 --> 03:33:18,960
the watch list. 
Yeah, he's he's on the he's on 

3343
03:33:18,960 --> 03:33:20,760
the watch list. 
Like I'm, I'm not saying it's, 

3344
03:33:20,760 --> 03:33:24,280
it's Jover for Jalen Polk. 
It's just it's I bet. 

3345
03:33:24,280 --> 03:33:25,840
No, I'm on. 
I'm saying he's on the watch 

3346
03:33:25,840 --> 03:33:27,800
list to cut him. 
Oh, OK, OK. 

3347
03:33:28,040 --> 03:33:33,320
Yeah, it's it's going to take a 
while for someone made to. 

3348
03:33:33,440 --> 03:33:37,160
Start right that that's your 
hope is that at some point May 

3349
03:33:37,160 --> 03:33:40,080
becomes the starter. 
Two things to happen. 

3350
03:33:41,240 --> 03:33:44,880
Yeah, you need May to start and 
you need someone on the Patriots

3351
03:33:44,880 --> 03:33:49,280
offense to end up consolidating 
routes because because right now

3352
03:33:49,280 --> 03:33:52,520
none of none of the Patriots 
guys are running the full 

3353
03:33:52,520 --> 03:33:53,800
complement of routes. 
Right. 

3354
03:33:54,080 --> 03:33:57,000
Like nobody's 76 percent is the 
highest. 

3355
03:33:57,000 --> 03:34:00,000
And that's that's Douglas. 
And Taekwon Thornton's right 

3356
03:34:00,000 --> 03:34:02,480
behind him, right? 
At 72, yeah. 

3357
03:34:02,600 --> 03:34:05,600
Yeah. 
So, So what you really need is 

3358
03:34:05,600 --> 03:34:09,600
you need, again, the larger 
receiver of Jolin Polk to eat 

3359
03:34:09,600 --> 03:34:13,400
the smaller receiver of Taekwon 
Thornton, and then he becomes 

3360
03:34:13,400 --> 03:34:14,960
usable. 
I I think what we're going to 

3361
03:34:14,960 --> 03:34:17,040
see with the Patriots is it's 
going to be one of those things 

3362
03:34:17,040 --> 03:34:21,960
that takes a long time. 
Yeah, but there could you you 

3363
03:34:21,960 --> 03:34:26,360
need made a play, you'd ideally 
prefer him to be good, which it 

3364
03:34:26,360 --> 03:34:28,960
seems like he could be. 
And then you need one of these 

3365
03:34:28,960 --> 03:34:31,600
guys to emerge. 
So it's going to be something 

3366
03:34:31,600 --> 03:34:35,760
where it's a, it's a real down 
the stretch type thing, so. 

3367
03:34:36,440 --> 03:34:42,120
Yeah, yeah, it's, it's 
definitely, it's tough setting. 

3368
03:34:42,400 --> 03:34:47,840
It's tough setting for sure. 
And I agree you probably don't 

3369
03:34:47,840 --> 03:34:50,040
want to cut them for some like 
absolute dust ball. 

3370
03:34:51,240 --> 03:34:55,360
But if there's something with 
real value, you don't hope you 

3371
03:34:55,360 --> 03:34:58,000
don't say, oh, I need to hold on
to jail and poke right. 

3372
03:34:58,000 --> 03:35:00,960
I need I need to hold on to 
Demario Douglas. 

3373
03:35:04,120 --> 03:35:09,320
And but OK, I think, I think we,
we got we got true where we got 

3374
03:35:09,320 --> 03:35:11,480
your week 1. 
Can we? 

3375
03:35:11,520 --> 03:35:13,360
Can we? 
One last thing that's going to 

3376
03:35:13,360 --> 03:35:15,200
make us really unpopular with 
the people. 

3377
03:35:15,720 --> 03:35:17,080
What's going to make us 
unpopular? 

3378
03:35:17,080 --> 03:35:19,160
I love. 
I love being unpopular with the 

3379
03:35:19,160 --> 03:35:22,400
people. 
If you needed to and there was a

3380
03:35:22,400 --> 03:35:25,440
good player out there, could you
cut Dantavion Wicks? 

3381
03:35:26,120 --> 03:35:30,000
Yeah, easily he was got. 
He was in the fantasy pros after

3382
03:35:30,000 --> 03:35:33,200
Ram and after the Green Bay 
game. 

3383
03:35:33,440 --> 03:35:35,080
He's gone in the last round. 
Yeah. 

3384
03:35:35,280 --> 03:35:40,720
So like, he's like, it's the 
profile of, Oh yeah, this is a 

3385
03:35:40,720 --> 03:35:42,560
young guy who I think is really 
good. 

3386
03:35:43,080 --> 03:35:47,840
And unfortunately, he doesn't 
play enough for me to be able to

3387
03:35:47,840 --> 03:35:54,080
play on Allah Troy Franklin 
Allah like Marvin Mims. 

3388
03:35:54,400 --> 03:35:58,880
Yeah, we got we got a list of 
guys a mile long with a shift 

3389
03:35:58,880 --> 03:36:02,360
chasing clip. 
Right, right. 

3390
03:36:02,600 --> 03:36:04,480
He's in that category, 
unfortunately. 

3391
03:36:04,960 --> 03:36:10,800
And like, he feels a little bit 
more live to put up a score than

3392
03:36:10,800 --> 03:36:14,720
than those guys just because 
when when Love is back, maybe he

3393
03:36:14,720 --> 03:36:20,960
has something, but maybe maybe 
Marvin Mims has something or 

3394
03:36:20,960 --> 03:36:24,640
maybe like, it's, it's that type
of play, unfortunately. 

3395
03:36:25,800 --> 03:36:28,560
Yeah. 
All right. 

3396
03:36:29,240 --> 03:36:31,880
I think that does it. 
For week 1. 

3397
03:36:32,520 --> 03:36:35,960
So thank you and thank you to 
the people surprised of multiple

3398
03:36:35,960 --> 03:36:39,440
people who held on to the end. 
Really appreciate you folks. 

3399
03:36:39,720 --> 03:36:41,160
Appreciate everybody. 
Who's that? 

3400
03:36:41,160 --> 03:36:45,160
Who's who's hung out with us for
the last three plus hours? 

3401
03:36:45,640 --> 03:36:48,240
It was a lot of fun doing this. 
Can't wait for next week.