Today on ship chasing, we got myself, we got Pat Karein, we
got Davis Matic, and we are going to dig deeper into this
rookie class as it pertains to dynasty drafts.
We're going to tear these out, really try to figure out where
these tear breaks are. We're kind of sniffing around
them when we did our mock draft a few weeks back and today we
are going to get really into the weeds with it.
This is ship chasing with Davis and Pat.
Let's do it here. Pat Fryer, Helmo, Anita, Handjob
Fix Your Sight, Jamar and Alpha. Play Chase.
You can't handle the heat. It looks like we're finally at
this point. You're right.
All right. We had initially booked Danny
Kelly. We were excited to talk with him
about his favorite prospects. Does a ton of great work over at
The Ringer. Unfortunately, had an emergency
that popped up, so maybe we will be able to get a rain check with
him. But we will press onward.
Like I said, we're going to talk some dynasty today.
Pat Davis, How are we doing? Doing good.
How you guys doing? Doing great man.
I I have a rookie draft that starts theoretically it was
supposed to start yesterday but the commissioner forgot to press
the button and I had to remind him.
So it's going to start tomorrow I think.
But a pre draft NFL rookie draft where I have 4:00 first round
picks. So this is actually, I think
going to be pretty, pretty instructive, hopefully.
Is it? Is it super flex and tight in
premium? It's it's it is the Soccer Dave
format. Although it's managed, it's not
best ball, and managed versus best ball actually changes
roster construction. It does.
In dynasty to like an like an almost unbelievable degree like
some guys you're like, oh, I trade a second for him in best
ball and then a manager like that guy's garbage, No.
Interest because you need you need more ceiling.
You're like I need this dude to be like a locked in you.
Just you just need to know who to start every.
Yeah. Like it's it's like I just want
to click the button on this guy versus like, Oh yeah, I'll have
Keenan Allen hang around at the the Yeah, sure, why not?
Right. Yeah.
And guys, also, the floor falls out like once, once a dude's no
longer, you know, reliable. You're like, he's, he's useless.
There's no point. Hollywood Brown, for example,
not not movement the needle for anyone in.
Wait, did you call? Did you call Hollywood Brown one
of the best picks on the board on ADP chasing this week?
Did I hear? That for best ball he's fine but
but for for manage leagues my God in dynasty come on.
Yeah, my, my dynasty brain is so rusty.
I have AI have a guy who's trying to send me George pickets
right now in a league and I'm like, what?
What? Like what is George Pickett's
value in dynasty right now? Like, what would it be a
reasonable thing to pay to get George Pickett's like, a good
deal for me? I mean, if you could get him for
like a third, I'd be super psyched, yeah.
If you could get him but but you wouldn't want to trade him away
for 1/3 I don't think. How about this?
I have like a bunch of the formerly great tight ends I
have, like Travis Kelsey. I have Mark Andrews.
I'm not including Dalton Schultz with that crew, but I have
Dalton Schultz. Like is there anything A1 for
one along those? Is it Titan?
Premium Titan Premium No. No, this is sorry, this is
sticker. Cut him, you know.
They just have zero tight. I think if I was competing and I
like really needed Kelsey, you know, there's like the hold down
a spot or something, then maybe not, but I I'd rather have
Pickens on those guys and not attending.
Premier See, that's what that was my thought.
I was like, I I'm the idiot that I've, I've had Kelsey like his
entire career, won multiple championships and then being a
lazy dynasty manager, didn't offload him at a peak time.
And so now I just have to ride it to 0 or dump him.
George Pickens, apparently. Yeah, I think that would be
fine. It it I would.
I would honestly, I'd go the other way.
I'd be actively trying to buy Kelsey in all formats right now
because you could. Get in.
You could or, or, or Mark Andrews or, or George Kittle,
any, any of these guys who are, you know, 30 plus with like
elite level production because the, the we are at peak like
Tyler Warren's going to take over the NFL season and like,
like Mark Andrews just going to like easily outscore Tyler
Warren this year, you know. This is this is like I don't
know if it's quite peak, but it we're nearing the peak because
people are still have like the peak value of rookie drafts and
stuff. But this is sexy roster season.
You, you want, you want to be able to show off what like
you've just got. You don't have a single veteran,
no one's over 30 on the whole team.
You, you don't know who you're possibly going to start at
running back to, But that doesn't matter because some
random rookie is going to be a an absolute crusher out of the
gate in August. You're going to look at the same
roster and panic and, and actually start trading for draft
picks because you realize you're not going to score any points
this year. But this is the this is the year
where people people actively want almost like a rebuilding
looking roster. Dude, Speaking of like sexy,
this is a dynasty. But, and we've been talking
about this on a few shows, but again, I did another draft today
where I got Dallas Goddard, I think at pick 180.
Like, yeah, crazy. People like it.
I, I truly think it's like the sexy screenshot thing.
Like no one wants to stare at a team that has Dallas Goddard on
it. But I'm like, what is going on?
Every time I go to double check that like something catastrophic
didn't happen. But man, people do not want that
guy. No, no they don't.
And and Dallas Goddard will probably just finish like Titan
9 in points per game, you know? Yes, yeah.
I wonder like if if they came out like I'm always trying,
fascinated by like the psychology of what's going into
that. But is it if the Eagles came out
and now said we're not trading Dallas Goddard or like we worked
out an agreement, whatever, whatever it is that's like
Dallas Goddard's on our team this year.
Does he immediately like snap back to his ADP?
Like it's just the unknown that that people hate about it.
I don't know, because there is upside if he gets traded.
You know, you think it's more tilted to the downside because
if if Dallas guard is like traded to somewhere where he's
not the clear cut pass catching tight end.
You know, like I one thing I float is like what if the what
if the Eagles traded in for mayor for Michael mayor just
like reset, you know, a tight end get a cheap.
Would the Raiders, I mean, do the Raiders have any interest in
that though? The Raiders have floated trading
Mayor. No trading, Mayor, but what do
you want Dallas Goddard for? Blocking and.
Costs like. Traditional tight end stuff.
He costs like $15 million. You I, I, I they're.
They're like in love with the idea of being competitive.
Tomorrow you. Know, I guess.
I guess you're right. I don't know that I, I'm gonna
put that I, I think that's fan fiction.
I I don't think you're. Getting It's literal fan
fiction. I yeah, I.
Player Player When is when is the last player for player skill
position traded? Why don't we have it?
We should have more of it we deserve.
It because of how it's because of how stupid the NFL cap is.
That is the only reason we I've talked about this with Rotopat
recently about how dumb the NFL salary cap rules function for
trade. Specifically where the team that
trades the player away ends up having to eat a bunch of dead
gap. It shouldn't be that way.
It should just be the contract. Just like the NBA, the contract
just gets traded. If you can afford it, you can do
it. I I don't know why it doesn't
function that way. Now here's the deal NFL, if you
want to add an 18th game, which they do and are going to do and
it's going to ruin our lives, then you have to figure out a
way to make player for player trades possible.
That that's that's the deal that I proposed to you.
NFL please accept. Also, I was laughing and someone
I think pointed this in the comments.
Jacob on Monday making the case for just not thinking Tyree Kill
is going to be a dolphin and then another domestic.
Violence. Yeah, that was precious.
Popping up like 2 days later like what is in the water over
there in the Azores because Jacob was hitting the news
early. I hate to I hate to be this guy,
but the the the police did literally already say like close
case moved on. Nothing, nothing to see here.
Now does, does Tyreek have 7 long months left to go for
another incident to pop up? It's April buddy.
Is he is he 30? Is he 31 years old?
Is he maybe on the Antonio Brown track?
Absolutely. But this if you're like oh man
can't draft Tyreek cause of this.
But also, every time, every time he has an incident with the
police, his wrist is broken for the next, you know, year.
So are we gonna have to when Tyreek Hill has some horrible
season? He's been like, well, I
actually, he tweaked his ankle and the risk came over.
Yeah. Yeah, you're making, you're
making some good points. You're making some good points.
It's true. It's.
No good. All right, so as we scramble
here to to set up this show, I did find a pre loaded tears with
the NFL rookies in them, so I didn't have to manually upload
these. However, it should not shock you
to know that I only know about what, like, four of these guys
look like. I know that this is Ashton
Genti. I know that this is KF Scataboo.
So we as we create these tiers for Dynasty, we're all gonna
collectively have to work hard to make sure I know which guy is
which, OK? I know that like the guys who
are in their jerseys, that's easy, but a lot of these guys in
their suit coats, I am not going to.
Recognize this is your guy Jackson Dart.
Right Tier Watch. Yeah, that's Jackson Dart.
Yeah. KU Jersey's Devin Neal K State
Jersey is Giddens. God, can you zoom in a little
bit? There's.
Technology on there. I'll yeah, I'll zoom.
In Is that Justin? Field at the bottom help us.
That's Jayden Higgins. Judkins is the 2 colored hair.
That's Trouse Hunter. This is easier now, OK.
OK, I'm gonna need you. Here's Shader Sanders.
OK, so maybe collectively we got this.
If not, I need to chat to be like playing Battleship.
Right, I see two more. I see.
I see restrepo. I see Restrepo's pretty
unmistakable. Yeah, is.
He like all the way down here because he wasn't fast enough.
He's down all the way. Down Golden Golden is the UT
Polo. Which one?
UT polos? There's four UT polos that's gun
or hell. I know a gun or hell, but I see
him. Savion Williams is the big tall
dreadlocks in the purple polo, The TCU polo.
OK, this is gonna be tough. This is gonna be tough.
It's gonna be tough, but we, I think, I think oddly, people
will enjoy us struggling to figure out.
Might not, might not be great for the audio listeners.
You know what? That's true, but we will be
sure. I think what we're gonna try to
do is put these in tiers, and this is what we were kind of
discussing as we were doing that rookie draft the other day where
we felt the tier breaks. Like I remember even after I
took Tyler Warren, like Davis took Travis Hunter, like I felt
that tier break and then there was a couple others.
So we're going to do this for Dynasty Superflex, Titan
Premium. So exact same format that we did
with the mock draft. Gente's the layup in Tier 1 The
question. Is is anyone?
Else I I know I know which one Jetty is.
The question is, is anyone else deserving to be up here with
him? No, he's in a He's in a tier of
his own. What what do you guys think?
Cuz like so here's another example from a league I'm in
that is superflex, just not Titan premium.
I have the one O 2 I am. Traded away.
Trade. Trade it.
I, I want your advice is get rid of every single player on my
team. I, I want gente.
I I'm good at quarterback, so I'm terrified of gente going and
then me like staring at like Cam Ward or whatever.
What would be a fair trade for me to get from the one O 2 to
the one O 1? Like what?
What is that gap? Because I think that offered him
in this tier. I offered Theo Greminger now of
fantasy points. I offered him the 1/5, the 1-6,
the 110 and the 111 for the one O 1 in this rookie draft and he
snap declined. Like like like like got like.
The e-mail must have got to his phone and he just.
You're like did this not send? What did it?
Happen. And frankly, he was right to do
it. That's hilariously light.
That is hilarious. That is hilarious.
That's one of those things you would have had a better chance
of of getting it accepted by just doing the one O 5 and the
one O 6. But by adding the the two extra
picks, you're like you're just saying like I know, I know this
isn't. Working I know you're you're
you're so right. I think the only way to get the
one O 1 is to SIOP the person who has the one O 1 and the
saying dude you have the one O 1, your team stinks by the time
Genti is ready to lead you to a victory like he's going to be 28
years old. I think it's I think it's to you
got to take like a star, you know, you got to you got to be
like I'm look, I'm looking to move Puka.
You know I'm looking to move yeah, a quarterback.
You said you're good at quarterback like you know,
you're trying to move now. I think you're probably adding
like if you take like a Kyler, you're adding to Kyler to get to
Gentie. I think at least that's what I I
would if I had the one O 1, I'd be like Kyler and what.
And I have Kyler and I'm just like I'm bringing up Kyler is
that to move up to get gentie fuck.
But I am naming this tier the snap decline tier because it
sounds like that's that's what we're dealing with.
We're dealing with here. All right, SO1O2 coming off this
was kind of a topic of debate in our mock draft as far as I think
Ray double tapped Omari and Hampton with Genti, but there
was a discussion about Cam Ward. Are are are both Hampton and
Ward at least in a similar tier for you guys in Tier 2?
I still have TET in that tier as well.
Yeah, I have, I have Tet and I think, I think Anthon for
dynasty value purposes is is in this.
Yeah, no, I think Hampton's the the 2.
You think Hampton over Ward? Yeah.
Oh, I I disagree. I think Hampton's most likely
going to end up on the Broncos and we're going to be taking
him, but extremely high. You I mean Corrine, you know how
that goes bro. Hampton comes out and has a Josh
Jacobs rookie year and Cam Ward averages like 17.5 points per
game and Ward is all of a sudden the 19th pick in startups or
whatever. Yeah, sure, that's a that's a
fairly Safeway to go, but Ward's a pretty boom bust prospect as
far as #1 picks go. They're ceiling from an NFL
perspective, for sure. There's not as much ceiling from
a fantasy perspective. He has a ceiling, but it's not
like he's a true dual threat. He's not a Jaden Daniels type.
Like, OK, we're talking about him at the One O 1 in startups
the following year. He's not that type of guy.
And, you know, I think Hampton, you know, before the draft ward
over Hampton, I think is easier for me to get on board with
after the draft. If Hampton, let's say, goes to
the Broncos, I'm like, I don't know, man.
I'm pretty sure you're going to want Hampton this year and next
year. And people are going to be like,
if any like at running back, like we just see guys fall away
from relevance quickly. You know, like there's going to
be like 5 running backs that we think are great to have on your
team now that actually are not great to have on your team in
2026. But I don't.
But I think Hampton, you know, given that he's going to be
entering Year 2 again, I'm assuming he's on the Broncos.
I have, I have, I have Hampton fatigue.
I'm just like, I'm sick of it just enough.
Like he's like, he's just so fine, you know what I mean?
I like I've got no issues with the Marion Hampton I.
Mean he's an elite athlete with size who can catch the ball and
kind of do everything so. He's he's the Charizard of James
Conner's Karain. What is that worth to you just.
Stop. It it's worth the one O 2 in
this year's draft class, That that's what.
I'm saying is part. I also want to say behind the
scenes over here guys, the ingenuity.
I have another browser set up with these same things.
I'm in Google Chrome inspect element, the file names are
there. I'm searching.
It's a 5 these guys had confirmed.
So that is my lifeline right now as I get care board of our
inhibited tete up here. In I would put Hunter in this
group now too. I mean, you're not going to have
to twist my arm. It's looking like he's a
receiver. So then we should have a larger
conversation on if that is just the designation we're making,
that Hunter is a wide receiver. He might be in the snap decline
tier for me. He he, he is a better wide
receiver prospect than Ted to me.
I agree with you, but I have to uncertainty.
Means you're not snap decline and you're thinking about it.
You're thinking about it. I don't think he's in the same
tier with Genti, but you could argue he's in his own.
Like if he was definitely going to play wide receiver full time
and not play any cornerback, I would have him in his own tier
and Tier 2. But we don't know that and so I
think he belongs in Tier 2 with these guys.
He's arguably the one O 2, but I think he's in the same tier as
these guys. The IT does just from
conversation, obviously it seems like the best ball community and
as evidenced by his ADP are quickly coming around on him
being an awesome selection even at elevated prices.
From the conversations I hear in dynasty circles, there still is
that lingering doubt. I don't see a lot of people
putting him in their top five overall dynasty picks right now
for this class. No, but they will though they
would When when it when he goes to the podium.
He's 5 for for us at leg up now. And the the Roger Goodell says
the University of Colorado wide receiver Travis Hunter.
It's it's over. So the, I guess circling back on
the Hampton thing, I mean, isn't part of the reason everyone's so
high on him is almost kind of what Davis is describing as
like, he's just good. It checks like all the boxes.
He doesn't like, he's big, he's fast, can catch some passes.
Draft capital's gonna be good. Like not one thing is like wow
worthy. It's just the whole package is
like, this is a bell Cal back. There's not a lot of bell Cal
back profiles in the league anymore.
Like this is something to get excited about.
Yeah. I mean, I think if you were to
give him credit for one kind of superpower, it is that he was a
Bell Cal back in College in a way that some other prospects
that, you know, have some really good peripherals, better
peripherals in in some aspects like like a Javante Williams,
those guys were not bell cows. So you know that if you're
versatile, big, very athletic, and can handle a ton of touches,
that combination is like more than the sum of its parts.
Yeah, the is there anyone else? So right now we have Genting his
own tier and then we're building out this Tier 2.
Cam Ward, Amarin, Hampton Tet, Travis Hunter is the tier in
here or is there another name that could be included here?
Henderson. I think the tier ends here
because the way I would think about it is, is what I think
you're insane to take one of these guys at one O 2.
And I think it would be kind of nuts if someone went into a
draft right now and took Henderson at one O 2.
I'd be like, whoa, where I wouldn't feel that way about any
of these four guys. I know Ted isn't a popular guy
to take it one O 2 these days, but I still think it's very
defensible. So it would be.
More all of these guys are locked in round one draft
capital, like when you start talking about Henderson even
like obviously it's different for running back, but there's no
guarantees really past these guys as far as round one for
skill position. I mean the tight ends.
But yeah, you get my point. Yeah, totally.
OK. So, yeah, so Davis, are you, it
sounds like you would include Henderson if you were doing this
on your own, but you're yeah, I would, but do you.
Disagree with with my take there that would you consider
Henderson one O 2? Would you consider all these
guys one O 2 including Henderson I guess?
Yes, yeah, kind of depending on like, oh, the Chargers took
Henderson. Like I, I like that better than
the Broncos, honestly. Like, you know, OK.
I Sean Payne is. Fucking begging to give Audrick
estimate goal line work over the running back that he trades up
for in the NFL draft. Dude, he's just begging to do
it. But like to do the thought
experiment of like what I I like this framework for this tier 1O2
potential. Like what would it take for
Henderson? Henderson would probably have to
go top 15 and for it to be a clean landing spot for him to be
one O 2. I think top Davis makes a good
point. I mean, if he were to go like
even late first round in a good landing spot and you're like,
I'm taking Henderson one O 2 now.
I, I would, I'd be like, OK, maybe, maybe he belongs in this
tier. Where where did Gibbs go that
year? Cuz that is like the comp of
like the the explosive pass catching back who goes way
higher than anyone thinks. But people were not necessarily
thrilled about the landing spot at the time.
Yeah. And it's although he did end up
at the 3-4 turn of basketball draft.
So we got on board maybe by rookie.
It's like we didn't have the time to fully readjust our
priors by rookie draft. Susan, I don't, I don't know.
I I've actually been meaning to do this on a show I have the
conversation around that clip that went around is so dumb.
That clip was from I believe someone said it was 2022.
It was three years. Ago, three years ago and
listening to. Just throw it out.
I mean throw it out my. Sake, I mean, throw it out if
you care about predicting the future.
If you want to just slam on Tet, it's fine.
But yeah, no, I listen to like Connor Rogers and Trevor Sigma,
like way more plugged into these guys, like over the course of
their entire careers where that was their exact take.
Like, what are we doing? This is the dumbest thing.
Yeah, he, he was like literally a young kid like Edie is.
It's like it. There's no way that that
represents his framework of what he feels about football right
now. Here's a.
Here's a Here's a dirty little secret about all your favorite
NFL wide receivers. They all wanted to be NBA
players, and they don't like they don't really like to be
tackled that much. They just want to go make a
bunch of money, so they. Should we, should we not draft
Puku Nakua this year because he's going on podcast saying he
wants to retire at age 30 and would rather be playing
basketball for some small European club team?
Like, yeah, none of these guys want to be playing football.
It's a brutal sport. Well, there's there are some
character red flags at wide receiver in this class, but it's
not Ted. That's the other funny thing is
that like people, it's bond and and burden a little bit.
Those are the those are the wide receivers that we've heard teams
have actually some questions about in terms of like work
ethic and buying into the program and everything.
We haven't heard that about that.
So yeah. Yeah.
All right. So we're going to close out Tier
2, but we'll let Davis then we're we're definitely opening
up Tier 3 with Henderson. I'm I'm OK if you guys want to
put Henderson in. I I don't, I don't necessarily
hate it. I just I still, I still can't
see him leapfrogging any of these guys for one O 2, I guess
is where I'm struggling with that.
But that's not to say he's not a Tier 2 guy, just with the
framework of who could be one O 2, which I kind of liked for
this, that that's the the harder part.
Yep. OK, Davis, which one of these is
Henderson? My inspect trick is not working
right now. I don't know.
Is it? Henderson No.
All the way bottom, bottom row to the right 32 there you go.
Yeah, that's Henderson. This one that I just.
That's Henderson. OK, OK, good job.
Good work, team. OK, so we're putting Henderson
in here, I guess. Then the next logical thing is,
is his teammate Judkins right there with him in this tier?
Yes, I mean Warren Judkins, Burden, Igbuka.
Let's let's pace ourselves. I bet you I bet you'll be able
to find Tyler Warren, brother. I'm working on I'm working on
Judkins right now, I believe. This is Judkins.
That's Judkins. Yeah, he's got, he's got the
cool hair. Yeah, OK.
I mean, let's let's talk about these two right here just
because they are teammates and it's convenient and most people
have them like back-to-back. Do you think it will just be a
combo of landing spot and draft capital?
Or let's assume draft capital is relatively equal.
Do you guys prefer Henderson or one of them strongly to the
other? Henderson feels way more likely
to be a league winner. I completely agree.
I think Henderson especially like if we're, you know, if one
of these guys sneaks into the first rounds and in a good
landing spot, you know, I I would be much more excited about
it being Henderson than than Judkins.
I think Judkins is definitely interesting, but is more of kind
of a he's like the Hampton bet, but he's not as as versatile in
terms of the pass catching. Let me give you 0 there, though.
Let. Me give you a scenario and and
tell me how you would value these guys.
Let's say don't bank the perfect landing spot for Treviana
Henderson. I'm going to throw out the
Titans. Take him at the top of the
second round and we're just like, man, Pollard's there
Spears like this is a kind of weird.
Like what are we doing? And let's say Judkins goes to
the Steelers. It's like clear bruiser back
compliment to Jalen Warren, the new Naji or whatever.
Like how? We second round or is he first
round? Let's say he there I just for
the use of it, let's say they're both early second round in that
scenario. Gimme Henderson.
Yeah, Gimme, Gimme Henderson. Which which almost seems like
you're rooting for kind of a somewhat murky spot for
Henderson to get the value on him where the market will not
give you value on the next Naji. The Naji role essentially like
that will be priced efficiently whereas people would be spooked
about that Titans committee. Henderson is someone that I
think from a long term perspective we should be like
even more excited about then from the short term perspective
because he's like a little bit, he's a little bit undersized.
We want to see him be be utilized in a receiving role.
He's one of the better pass catching prospects, but we don't
generally see guys come into the league and are like immediately
just like stoning NFL edge rushers and stuff or blitzers.
Like there there's a learning curve even if you're good at it
in college. So I could see and then, you
know, it could take him a little bit to consolidate an entire
backfield since he's not this big guy like a Hampton that you
just kind of handed off to Argenti.
You're just like, it's yours now, you know, lead us.
So Henderson I I it's more of a ceiling play, whereas Judkins is
more of like a hippo. That's how you win dynasty
leagues anyways. You know you you don't win
dynasty leagues by chopping and changing a bunch of guys to
score 12.7 points per game. You know you find you find
ceiling guys. Yeah, well, but I, I like.
Henderson in best ball, but I think I like him even more in
dynasty. That and that, that makes sense
to me too, because I I even in my just kind of wild
hypothetical here, like already in the chat, Henderson would
have too much competition on the Titans.
Like I'm telling you, that would exactly be the sentiment across
the board. I would be OK and maybe this is
always split the difference of the previous concert, but I
would be OK having him in his own tier.
No, I I think that is not real. Like maybe you can maybe you can
mentally think of it that way, but like.
Mentally, I would. They're they're like Judkins,
Caleb. Johnson That is how I like to
think of things. And Trayvion Henderson are gonna
go within like 15 picks of each other, and it's gonna be like,
who went to a good spot? Who didn't?
Yeah, it's more that like I see no scenario in which I could
take Judkins one O 2. I do see a scenario where I
would be OK with Henderson. One, Cowboys don't take a
running back to round one, and they take Judkins in round.
Two, I'm not taking Judkins 102. There will be someone else that
I'll take. They someone will.
Someone will, yeah. Well, someone might, but people
took. Remember when Keyshawn Vaughn
were you in the that league? Keyshawn Vaughn went 106 when
when the year he was he was drafted.
The fun thought requirement is how far down the board, like an
actual draft capital board can you go before people would just
chill on whatever rookie running back the Cowboys draft.
Right. Like it's like round two like,
or round one just like fucking forget.
It man Round 2 is the same as round one to the slappy market
for Cowboys running. Back round 3 might be the same
as round. One that's.
What I'm saying honestly? I I did this thought experiment
last year. If instead of trading for Trey
Lance, the Cowboys had just stayed put and taken Braylon
Allen, how high would we have taken?
Totally. Well, dude, I mean, think about
like if, especially if it's a guy that we at one point thought
of as a potential round one running back.
Like let's say Caleb Johnson fell to early round three.
Cowboys snap him up. He would be drafted extremely.
He's a top 50 pick in in basketball mania for sure.
Oh, for sure. Scenario.
For sure. It's funny you say that because.
And no different than if he was drafted in round two.
Like there would be no discount. That's what I was gonna say in
in Thor's mock draft, his most recent one, he did do Caleb
Johnson to the Cowboys in Round 2.
And I I don't think there would be a difference in how the
market handled that. I agree.
Yeah, which is funny. Like if there was like a gap,
like if you think about the difference of like the NFL says,
three to four other running backs came off the board between
Johnson and round two to round three like that.
And 32 other players. Yeah, OK.
I think Luther Burden was the next name that Davis tossed out
here. Do we all agree he's in a part
of this Tier 3? Or is he part or not?
I don't think probably doesn't because Pat has.
Pat hasn't gotten his elbows dirty watching the film.
Which film you watching the 2023?
You just living in 2023 over there.
How about how about Dane Bruegler's running back three in
the class in the Beast brother? Who?
Who did he have? Scataboo?
Larrison, Caleb Johnson. Oh, Caleb Johnson.
Oh, that's right. Yeah.
I.
Bet. So Luther Burden, I mean, if if
Luther burden goes round one, like let's say somewhere in the
20s or whatever, like he, he's definitely a tier 3 guy.
I guess then the conversation is is he a tier 3 guy if he slips
to early. 2nd and I don't so I agree with that framing.
I think if he's a first round pick, then I think he's a tier 3
guy. But I so I just finished up a
podcast with Nick Orisko, who's who's the fantasy law guy on
Twitter and he's like just really dialed into mocking the
first round. He does not think Burden's going
to go first round. He noted Lance's earline's first
mock is kind of the Canary in the coal mine on his draft
capital of people realizing that maybe there was an issue there
and then there been follow up reports that like, yeah, there
there does look like maybe there's an issue with him kind
of there's like basically diva wide receiver Devo reports on
him plus you have the 2024 season not at all what you want.
Plus you have the way that he generated production being like
kind of gadgety and concerned like a concerning level of of
gadget stuff. His his range of outcomes is
extremely wide. I do not think he's the type
player you want to write off and say as a bust.
He could be a huge hit, but I don't think I want to like I
just would never take him over Henderson at this point.
Like Henderson would have to go to some crazy landing spot for
me to for me to take Burden over him.
I think, I think that makes it seem like he should be in Tier 4
where it sounds like almost no matter what, like happens to
say, Henderson, you're going to be excited about his long term
dynasty value in a way that you can't say the same for Burden is
what I'm hearing. That's that's how I feel.
Davis, it sounds like, though, you would have been willing to
include him. Yeah.
Burden, burden Round 2. I don't care man.
He he's, so I think Burden is, I mean, I think he's DJ Moore
basically. And I give a large pass to what
the Missouri offense was in 2024.
The the red flags are not, they're more, they're more like
pink flags for me really, 'cause he's like, he's a good deep
threat. He 'cause he kind of does the
two sick things for fantasy. He can do the gadget shit that
kind of builds you in a nice little floor, but he can also
win down the field. Yeah, but isn't the sickest
thing getting open? I have the matter of
perspective, Pat. That's how I'm starting to feel
that the that the very sickest thing you can do is just get
open all the time. What let Let's maybe table the
burden thing for a SEC. Are there any other surefire
Tier 3 guys that you think should be included with Judkins
and and Henderson here? Golden for sure.
Really, Golden is someone I really struggled to.
Golden should should be probably ranked over burden, yeah.
In a different tier. I mean I golden might be the
12th overall pick and and burden might be like mid second.
You know, I feel like the 12th overall stuff is kind of cooled
out. Felt like that was like 1 random
mock draft and then that just became too much of A talking.
Point it's cooled a little bit, but it hasn't worked or people
expect golden to Yeah, so there you go.
But but but it's not cooled because people are like, I don't
even know if he's a first rounder.
Everyone expects there to be golden and and T Mac off the
board in round one. That's those are the two guys
who look relatively locked in to round one at this point.
So I don't know. I mean, I do struggle with gold
and I don't like him as much as I should because based on the
draft capital, I just, I don't know.
To me, to me this this conversation of these two here
is so funny because it's almost like how you'd want to play
these guys in best ball and dynasty is entirely different
where it's just you just blindly take golden because of his draft
capital and that opportunity is going to get.
But you're way more nervous about him having a bust profile
in dynasty where it's burden has a much stronger dynasty profile.
Where I think you you feel more confident about him just being a
good player over a three to five year time span, but is way more
susceptible to probably year 1 wonkiness based on his draft
capital based on his team fit. Exactly the the guys that I go
ahead. Go ahead, David.
I think this is just, this is must just be about my risk
tolerance profile because I'm just like, yeah, dude, just load
me up on these guys. Like like I'm just like if I can
just, if I can just snap these dudes off at the 110 and every
rookie draft or whatever, I'm like, yeah, send it.
I'm I'm doing that every time. I'm not taking Chadur, I'm not
taking Jackson Dart, I'm not taking Caleb Johnson.
I'm just like, yeah, dude, Gimme Luther Burden.
Gimme, Gimme Golden. Where are you at on the tight
ends? I mean Warren is for sure Warren
is for sure tier 3, but I I've been lower on Tyler Warren this
whole time than than everyone else.
Warren or or Loveland? See, that's The thing is I think
Loveland is gonna, we're starting to hear the chatter
like, oh, Loveland actually is a better run blocker.
Loveland is a better, yeah. You're tights that whole
breakdown about that because Sims says he's the he's the best
run blocker in the class, so the run blocking thing is kind of
flipped. What is the dynasty market gonna
do if you get the chalk war into Colts, which everyone agrees
sucks? People are too woke now that
they're like, can't project who the Colts quarterback is gonna
be 12 months from now. Just send it.
You're, you're saying that the, I, I kind of disagree.
If if the market's going to overreact about Judkins versus
Henderson, you know, landing spot, you know projected volume,
the market will overreact about his quarterback play in the
short term. Depends, obviously depends on
the the league a little bit, but like, I don't know, man, this
used to be like I was actually, I'm writing an article right now
and I, I went back and looked and like there was a, a time
when Nicole Hardman was the consensus one O 8 and like we
just are not doing that type of stuff anymore.
I do think that if it's Loveland, people will really
care, and I don't know that they care so much.
It's Warren because I, I feel that the fantasy community has a
bigger distance between those two players than is backed up by
the scouting community or the numbers.
I agree. I, I, I don't understand why the
perception of these guys is that like, it's Warren and then like
down here's Loveland. They're very close to me as
bets. You Loveland.
I have way more of than best ball.
He goes way later. I think in the first mock draft
we did, I took Loveland and it was like, oh, you know, but I, I
think Loveland's as soon as Warren goes off, if you want to
tight end, take Loveland, you know, and, and by the way,
Loveland is probably less likely to go to the Colts.
So you could end up, you could see them flipped after the
draft. You know, that would be, and to
me, that would be a reasonable thing to do of like, hey,
Loveland landed with the Chargers and Warren landed with
the Colts. I'm just going to take the dude
who's in the better situation with a better quarterback and
they're compare, they're very comparable prospects.
In fact, a lot of NFL evaluators are now saying they think
Loveland has a higher ceiling. So I do think Loveland belongs
in this Tier 3. You could maybe just Add all the
wide receivers in this tier. But then do we talk about the
quarterbacks being in this Tier 2?
Like how big is this Tier 3? Well, that that's what I'm
starting to try to tease out. So right now, just as the
placeholders, I have the two out Ohio State running backs and
Warren in Tier 3 and then we have Burden, Golden and Loveland
in Tier 4. To me, the conversation is like,
of these six guys, which ones do you feel most confident on?
It sounds like we're already there with Henderson.
That almost no matter. Where they move Henderson to to
Tier 2. I think I was wrong about that.
That's what I was getting out of either he needs to be in his own
tier or he needs to go up based on this combo because he's Tier
2 beyond man. He's Tier 2, yeah.
He's Tier 2. And then are all of these guys
part of Tier 3 then? Yeah.
Yeah, see, I I know Ball. But Igbuka is also in this tier.
Igbuka is in this. Tier, yeah, that makes sense.
And it does seem like, like you said, the fact that these two
could be flipped by perception based on landing spot like means
I think necessitates that they have to be at the same tier.
Same with the golden and Burden, right?
Because if their draft capital is really similar, the market's
going to prefer Burden, I think. But if you get that gap and
Golden is way ahead, then I think you you go with gold in
there. Or at least that's how it will
shake out in in drafts. Yeah, and I'm always trying to
like, look at as I as I do this stuff and I am writing these
guys up now. I'm starting to write up the
receivers now. And it's like I am trying to
separate out these two things in my head at least a little bit
because you have this opinion of what I think these guys value.
You know what, what is their value?
And it's based on where they will be drafted and how good of
prospects I think they are, you know, and then you combine the
draft capital in there and you're like, OK, this dude's
like a late first round type guy.
But I'm going to be wrong about where they're drafted in like
some pretty important ways. You know, like Henderson could
go way earlier than I thought he was.
It turns out actually some team has Henderson as a running back
too. He'd like leapfrog frogs.
Hampton, he goes to, you know, Hampton doesn't go to the
Broncos. He falls further.
Henderson ends up going to the Chargers or something.
They, they they're in love with him, right?
Something weird like that is going to, I don't know
specifically what, but there's gonna be some weird stuff.
And so I am trying to be like, you know, like with Burden.
If Burden was like the 20th pick and Golden was the 21st pick,
give me Burden. You know, there's.
Yeah, right. I don't want to get too married
to the projected draft capital because it is still pretty
murky. Do we feel good?
So for our audio listeners here, we got Gente in his own tier.
We're calling it the snap decline tier in one O 2
potential. This is for dynasty Superflex
tight end, premium shout out David Kitchen drafts, Cam Ward,
Omarion Hampton, Ted McMillan, Travis Hunter, and we just
bumped Trevion Henderson up into this one O 2 potential.
And then I'm calling this third one capital versus talent,
saying that there's a lot of ways these guys could flip flop.
But your mix here is going to be Judkins, the two tight ends,
Loveland and Warren, and then the three wide receivers,
Burden, Golden, Ibuka. Judkins, by the way, does have
like some pretty real red flags I've seen about like for for a
bruising runner, he like broke fewer missed tackles per rush
then like Laquint Allen, who's like Samaj P Ryan Part 2, which
is like kind of interesting. Yeah, that's not great.
He he is more, he's like his rushing profiles kind of in that
Hampton zone where you're like, you do all this stuff really
well, like on a per game basis you could you can break tackles.
You better get 19 rushes a game though.
But you need 19 rushes per game and you're not going to be as
involved as a receiver as Hampton, so he is landing spot
dependent for sure. All right, Pat, I got a either a
gotcha moment or an addition to capital verse talent because you
took a player ahead of IGBUCA and Golden when you were on the
clock at 1:12 in our draft a couple weeks ago.
That has not been added to the mix yet.
Was it chador? Yeah.
That's what I was going to ask, where these quarterbacks go.
I think Chador should be in this.
He's going to end up being the Eat Your Vegetables.
He and Dart are going to be the the Daniel Jones Eat Your
Vegetables picks where you're like, I guess, but it's not fun
to take them. It's not fun, but I think as
long as he goes, let's say he goes like 21 to the Steelers,
which is. That I think that represents
close to his floor. That's what I that's what I
think. Like, yeah, as long as that is
the real floor, as long as there's not some additional
like, Oh my God, the NFL just does not like this guy floor,
then he's worth a late first round pick.
And that's kind of how I'm viewing all of these guys like
this. These are your late first round
picks. He's definitely in that
conversation. And we could be wrong.
Like we he could end up I I don't think he goes to the
Giants at 3:00 or anything like that at this point, But maybe
the Browns trade back up for him and pair him with Travis Hunter
and all of a sudden we're kind of excited about him and Kevin
Stefanski offense. There are some scenarios where
we're like psyched about Shadour and he's going up quite a bit
higher than this in, you know, or at least ahead of like this
group in. In super and that's why I think
he should be in this tier 3 capital verse talent because
that capital is ultimately going to determine it like his I I
wrote this up for the newsletter this morning, so I was looking
at it. His line on DK right now is 8
1/2 and it was juice to the over, but that's still kind of
playing him in that 910 in the middle range of what you just
described the 21, the floor in the previous highs of like two
or three. I think if he's in that 8 to 12
range, maybe the trade up scenario you like you said, I
think he's going at 19110 in drafts and then belongs in this
tier. One of the scenarios that I
talked about with Nick is that the Rams would take him, whether
that's sitting tight at 26, probably probably not.
But maybe they trade up a bit. If, you know, if he falls, you
know, kind of into that 20s range, they could maybe get up
and and take him at like maybe they'd have to trade up ahead of
the Seahawks at 18 or something like that.
But they could maybe get him if he falls past the Saints.
And it sounds like the Saints probably are less likely than
people think to take him at 9:00.
So the from a dynasty perspective, him being the
successor to Matthew Stafford in a Sean McVeigh offense is
pretty, pretty exciting. You got to wait a little bit.
The best ball bags are hurting if you have him.
But but yeah, we would be excited.
And similar like Saints at 9, you know, if they if they did
that, you know, you'd be feeling pretty good about I think his
stock. Saints, Saints, you're loving
it. It's just like that is just
that's going to be an asset that's burning a hole in your
pocket. If Shooter is sitting on the
bench all year, he'd be like, man I really wish I would have
done anything other. Than so I don't know.
Take this guy. Oh, I mean, I tend to like those
those types of plays if you can get them cheap enough because
like you, you can turn around and like you take your your
Michael Pinnix. Who would we thought we're going
to wait two years to get anything out of he was a second
round pick. You take him, you can massive
profit on the table already. You're JJ McCarthy.
We're we're already starting to get he hasn't played it down.
We're already getting kind of excited about him for best ball
and stuff. I think you can turn a profit on
these quarterbacks as long as there's actually a floor, you
know, like if it's if he's frigging Malik Willis, you know,
and and it's like basically going to be a backup
immediately, then there's no there's no floor.
But that's not who Shidor is. Shidor is kind of a a lower
ceiling NFL archetype, but one that we are confident can kind
of be play point guard at least. So he'll get a shot.
He'll get a shot to be a starter, and that's worth a lot.
And Superflex. So the only other player who was
off the board before anyone that is still up on this, That's a
really weird way to say it. That win ahead of IGBUCA and
Golden in our draft who hasn't been selected yet, was Caleb
Johnson. Blair took him at 11.
He seemed. This feels like a tear break to
me. I I there's stuff to like about
Caleb Johnson but he feels like the start of Tier 4.
Or does someone want to make the case he should be in tier 3?
I mean, I would like to make the case that I, I mean straight up,
I think he's just better than Judkins.
I think he's like a more. I think he comes in right away
and is like, I have no, like he can do all the things he is fine
at pass blocking. I think he's going to be fine in
the receiving game. I don't think he's like nearly
like Judkins is probably more dynamic in like the open field
than him. But like the thing that all the
teams are talking about in this job, we need a big bodied guy.
We Damien Martinez. Yeah.
And I think like, he's the best version of that guy.
He's the best version of the 225 LB guy who can run a 4-5 and
break tackles and have a 52% success rate.
Yeah, those success rates sucked in college.
So that that's one of the concerns is that he's maybe like
a bit more boom bust. He's maybe more like a Kenneth
Walker as far as like big backs go.
He's like more of an explosion guy.
I don't know, I, I mean, I, I'm kind of just spitballing here,
but like his Iowa teams were so bad.
It's kind of the Pacheco thing where like they were so
disinterested in the forward pass.
I feel like that his his final season at Iowa, he had more
yards from scrimmage than the team threw for.
That's good. Yeah, it's pretty good.
I guess the, the the push back on the the Caleb including him
in this stuff is like the draft capital for him is definitely
going to be meaningfully different.
Like all of these guys we're talking about are either round
one or at worst top around 2. Like it would be pretty shocking
if Caleb Johnson went like earlier than middle of Round 2,
right? Yeah, I, I.
I think it's possible if you're like a zone run team and you you
want like an outside, like outside zone downhill runner, I
could see a team being like, let's not mess around, let's get
this guy. I mean, I think Bruegler's rank
on him would show you that there is some real love for him and
you're competing with with those other teams like that.
Like, I guess I wouldn't be shocked if I don't.
I guess I don't. Are the Bears going to be
running that kind of system? But you know, it wouldn't shock
the Bears. We got Lamic in the chat saying
Johnson is his own style running back.
All those zone style running teams already have backs.
Besides, the Bears landing spot seems murky and potential
faller. Yeah, so if the bears were to
grab him, he would be. But that's that's I guess maybe
why I wouldn't have in this tiers that it's like it kind of
takes a landing spot, like specifically the bears using one
of their spot. Yeah, a perfect spot.
Maybe that's what Tier 4 is. It's like it's, you know, hoping
for a perfect spot. The guys that could be a top.
Chiefs. Chiefs that pick 64 or whatever
or 63. Yeah, I mean, come on, that'd be
awesome. Yeah.
Guys, you can dream on kind of thing.
Yeah, dream on. And there will be a lot of
personal preference like some years you'd like know who you're
gonna get at your pick. You're like, oh, I got the the 2
four. I know exact like this draft
will not be like that. There will be a lot of personal
flavor. I I think that comes in.
So we're we're. Kicking off one other one other
guy, 'cause I actually think there's someone else we need to
talk about before we, yeah, we fully move on to Tier 4.
No Loveland we got in Tier 3. Oh, OK.
All right. I didn't remember that.
Jackson Dart. That's Ollie Gordon, by the way.
What that's? That's Ollie Gordon.
What are you talking about? That right there in the dream on
team on that's. Ollie Gordon, I thought you were
saying Loveland was Ollie Gordon.
Thank you. That's actually derogatory.
Dream on. Like, come on.
It's not. Yeah, no, I got I got to change
this. Not happening.
No. Let me get my let's see.
This is him, right? That's him.
Yeah. That's.
Good. OK.
All right, Thank you. Thank you.
All right, Jackson Dart in this in this dream on tier.
Yes. I think, no, I think he's in.
I think he's in capital versus talent.
He's gonna go first round. OK, right.
OK. Yeah, if he, if he's.
Yeah. And and to your point, if you
get the Sanders slide and DART like holds strong in the mid 20s
or whatever, if those two are close and we've already heard
the sentiment like Jacob mentioned it on ADP chasing like
I'm taking DART over Sanders in dynasty.
Like, people are way more excited about the dark tools
than they are Sanders. And Dart, you know I've.
I've as the leader of the Dart brigade, I frankly find this a
bit What's. Ridiculous about it.
Chadur's better dude, like Chadur had to play in like the
opposite of a real offense like Chadur's.
You know, Chadur's offensive coordinator was do you?
This will be good, Crane. You know, don't say it, Peter.
Just it's it's one of the funniest names you can imagine.
Who do you think? Old NFL guy in his 70s.
We he's been around forever. Just what?
Sorry, what's the question? Chadur's offensive coordinator.
He's supposed to be an offensive guru.
He's literally one of the worst of all time.
Pat Shermer was his offensive coordinator.
Basically the Colorado game plan was we're never going to run and
and you're our offensive line is not going to be particularly
good and we're just going to let you run around and do stuff.
And there's a lot of, I'm not saying Shdur, like Shdur, if he
hits is gonna be like the at best, like the 13th best
quarterback in the NFL. I'm not like Shdur is him QB
one. But compare the two systems.
Go watch Jackson dart highlights.
It's him just like hitting dudes who don't have anyone on the
screen with them 'cause Lane Kiffin is really good at his
job. Like I just, and I was the dart
guy originally, but it's gone. It's a bit too much.
It's not your own take. I love it.
The the thing with Dart because I've done a whole spiel about
how, you know, quarterbacks don't sit and and stuff.
The nice thing about maybe chador and Dart from, you know,
but I, I would say more more so Dart, who I think probably needs
to sit is that he will go late enough in the first to where a
team is going to be able to to pull that off for at least the
majority of the season. It'll be more like a panic
situation. I think like, for example, he
could end up going to the Steelers and then they sign
Aaron Rodgers and he doesn't really play this year, but that
that would be pretty good for him.
Like being a first round pick, who's the the successor?
You're going to have to wait on it.
His value might fall in the short term next year.
If he's not the start of Rodgers does another year, his value
will fall. People will lose patience, but
eventually with first round capital, he will be a starter
and he's got tools and people will will see stuff to get
excited. So he's just like kind of you're
banking a profit with Jackson Dart unless he falls out of the
first round, but I don't think. He that that I agree with.
I I agree with that. Yeah.
So do you guys envision scenarios where like Sanders and
Dart are just going back-to-back in rookie drafts like a 19110?
Yeah, but. That almost feels like most
likely to me, assuming they both go in the first round.
So then that's. How we have it right?
I literally have Sanders first but then dart right behind him
once behind. Him.
So, Davis, are you willing to include Dart with Sanders or do
you think there's still a? Break no, no, we we can include
it, but I do just I do just want to push back on this whole thing
a little bit like that like we got we got we got we got we got
Dan Orlovsky going on TV every day it being like The Jets
should just take him at 7, you know, and I'm like all right,
let's just. Well, I'm with you there.
That's yeah. Where?
Where do we get tears? Exercise Where?
We're being pretty level headed right now, I would say.
All right, as much as it hates me to bring him up here, not
because I don't think he's. Valuable I know because 2 lines.
Second line it's just like, is there someone?
Else I wish, I wish other guys joined him on the line.
Oh no, I got him on the line by zooming out.
We're good, we're good. Easy fix.
OK, so this dream on tier, this is going to be a longish tier,
right? Because even looking at our
dynasty draft, this is really where you start to get your
choose your own preferred flavor at wide receiver, running back,
tight end, flyer. Yeah, but I do think that this
tier for me is going to be at least somewhat tied to draft
capital where there's guys that I like, but I'm scared they
might be day three picks. If if Caleb Johnson's in this
tier, then it shouldn't include guys like that because Caleb
Johnson's going to be a day two pick.
You know he might not be. Around to anymore.
I think Scatabo should be next to Caleb Johnson.
I agree. I agree.
Running back 12 in the Beast. If you can't, if you can't dream
on scataboo, then no. Exactly if.
You can't. If you can't dream on scataboo
then then you're you're. Right.
What are you watching this for? Right, exactly 2.
A great point. Find something else to do with
your time. Scataboo too big come on too big
for the take cast. I I DM D him nothing nothing
from Cam. That's that's bullish.
No, no. Unironic in so many ways.
Unironic, unironic bullish because you know who's coming on
land Larrison's coming on. So I would I would I would UN
earmark your fourth round rookie running back flip.
For land. Thanks for coming on land,
you're now undraftable. Here we go, I am.
This is just production value on the fly.
Final tier Matic kiss of death. I put Jalen Millroe in the kiss
of Death Pier then too. Dude the best.
So I had Thor on my after dark show from fantasy life and I
asked him. Someone in the chat was asking
about Lynn and I passed it along and he said he was dollar store
Dylan Lauby, which is. Yeah, let's go.
That's. About right?
I was under the impression that I was, that I was all.
Right. So we got Caleb Johnson, Cam
Scatabo. Who else do you guys should be
in this tier? Are we going to start to
introduce some like Jayden Higgins?
No bonds? Jayden Higgins should be in this
tier. Yeah, sure.
But there's no there's no more Dream on guy than Isaiah Bond,
who, like, never did anything. Yeah, I guess is.
That Higgins, Pat. I think it is Higgins.
Yeah, Noel. Noel is the one with the braids.
OK so to me like this dream on tier to me this is like this is
like Round 2. Yeah, priority round two guys,
early round two priorities, which I actually don't think
Bond is. That's what I was was going to
try to suss out there. I think Bond's more like a. 8
Round 2. Feels like the NFL, like we've
gotten enough kind of fuss about a priority.
Yeah, I don't know, maybe maybe I'm wrong because like some
people still like Bond has still been around 1 mock guy even
after getting literally booed at the NFL scouting company.
I think I've, I've seen him more as like a round three guy like,
you know, in the 80s and stuff of big boards because I think
he's probably having like. Probably bad.
Yeah, yeah. I don't think he's in this tier.
I think he's in the next. So this tier might actually be
smaller. Well, there's two guys that we
should add. I think 1 is mill row.
Mill row. Yes.
No row getting invited to the draft is interesting.
I don't think it means he's going around 1:00, but it can't
mean he's dead to go round one. There must be a team that under
the right circumstances, be willing to consider it.
Or why did they invite him? They only, they only invited 13
dudes and he's one of them. What would be your and he
accepted, right? What would you like, if you
like? If you're all these guys think
the world of themselves, I'm sure they all think they're
going higher. But if you're in your heart of
hearts and you're like, I don't want to do the waiting in the
green room thing, on the other hand, you get the invite, then I
don't know. I'm just like the psychology of
it. I think you just have to say yes
if you're a fringe guy who gets the invite.
Well, the other thing with Milro that from what I understand, I
mean, it's like character and likability and like it's all
very high. The people, people really like
Jalen Milroe, teammates, coaches, all of it.
And so I just feel like you would, I don't know, like why
would you do it to this guy? Like, you know, like this is a
this is a guy who people who people respect.
He went to a big time program with a lot of NFL connections.
So, you know, he's and he was at the program for a while.
It it just, it's strange to me that he would that there would
be like no buzz within NFL circles that that he's live to
go round one. If there isn't, then why did
they invite him? It's just very strange.
Who was who was the other person that you thought should be in
this tier, Pat? Harold Fannon.
I OK, I'm glad you said that, Davis.
You took Harold Fannon at 15, wrapped a head of Higgins, a
head of Scatterbo, a head of Mill Row.
A head. Of dark all the OK I did do
this. Let me try.
We just need This show just needs to be 3 different versions
of. Dave, can I from like 2 weeks
ago? I wonder if I can easily wriggle
my way out of this channel. Do you make anything out of it?
I have a hard time differentiating in my brain
between what I want to have happen and what is going to
happen. And I feel so strongly that the
NFL is telling us that Harold Fannon is not going to happen.
But I really want it to happen and I don't know what to do with
that. I that's not my read with the
NFLI feel like the NFL is saying maybe this happens.
Maybe like maybe it does like Harold Fannon to be a Bowling
Green duck footed slot receiver playing tight end that that he
is basically. I don't I don't want to say
universally, but on on the majority and it you know, maybe
you could even say vast majority of top one hundreds you'd see
him. Now, does he going to go round
two? No, Is he going to be any
earlier than the tight end 5? No, and he might be the tight
end 6, but like who cares? He's going to get drafted.
That in the beast. Yeah.
So he's gonna get drafted specifically for the type of
role that that we value that. That's what I've been making.
The argument is that if he does end up being a round three pick,
it's like so bullish because no. Team is.
Up No no team is drafting him thinking he's tip Ryman a. 100%
if he's a fifth round pick, I'm worried 'cause you know, it's
like he becomes Brevin Jordan pretty pretty easily yeah, it
there's so much Josh Oliver like these dudes are like, oh, this
guy's an interesting receiving guy it's like no, it's not
happening, but with round three capital, that's enough Where
Oliver. Fucked himself by getting too
good at blocking once he got to the NFL.
That's true. Actually.
We just talked about Isaiah Bond.
Isaiah Bond is ranked in a pretty similar spot on a lot of
big boards and is in like an unproductive undersized speed
receiver. This dude is a massive slot
receiver who has tight end eligibility and might end up
going ahead of Bond in the draft.
I think we're like. Criticism.
Criminally under excited about him.
Yeah, OK. And you know who agrees with me?
Davis from a couple weeks. Ago I know this is my favorite
thing to to pull up our mock draft here and I was like see if
I could get pat on the shader Sanders thing, but he he stayed
consistent. Let's just be honest, I'm just
I'm always playing to the crowd and like I knew that the Harold
Fannin and the mock was going to go over really well.
I mean, it was going to go. It was going to go over well
here again, too. If you could, you could pull it
off all right. Should we flesh out one more
tier below this and above the vatic Kiss of Death tier?
Yes. OK, let me add a tier here.
Shockingly, for as many of these tiers as I have seen on on
Twitter and over the years, I've never done one of these myself,
so I'm figuring it. Shout out to whoever created
this template because they saved me a lot of.
Time You know what IO Manor IO Manor should probably be in the
The Dream On tier. He is he gonna the I feel like
all of these guys have a shot at like some solid round two
capital in a way he doesn't. I guess that's how.
I not Harold Fannon, but the Titan premium adjustment.
But we're kind of judging on a curve for for Titan, Yeah, yes.
Yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm happy to put him in this next one, but.
I like, I like I am Manor, but I don't think he belongs in this
tier because of draft capital concerns.
Like there's no chance that Higgins falls to round 4, but I
am an OR absolutely could. And that would that would be
bad. Maybe it wouldn't kill his
value, but it would not be. You're not considering him over
Caleb Johnson? Yeah.
And I mean, I've this, I'm guessing this would end up being
like the longest tier because now you're just getting into
super deep running back class. These these other wide receivers
here. I guess we've pretty much you
can include what the Mason Taylors and Arroyo's potentially
in this tier as well. I think those tip down.
Those guys I feel like tip Rymans to me all.
Right. I think even if Mason Taylor
gets round two capital, he's. Almost like him better in best
ball where I'm like. He did run that gauntlet.
He did run the gauntlet. Well, yeah, let's see.
I think that the first guys I would mention are the running
backs. I think this is where we get
like our premium dart throw like locked in second round rookie
pick type guys. You're you're excited to just
kind of RIP off. Yeah, Sampson, Tooten, Giddens,
Harvey, those guys are probably the the cream of the crop right
now. Man, I'm learning what so many
of these guys look like today. This has been a valuable
exercise for me because I normally don't know this until
about week six of the NFL season, so I'm so far ahead of
schedule. I found too.
I should have known the the Virginia Tech polo was a pretty
big giveaway. Yeah, the polos.
The polos are a nice inclusion. Polos are a.
Little bit more difficult. Davis Who else?
You want the. Hair there in the in the top
who? You want in here, I'm gonna
we'll start adding them since we agree this is kind of a long
tier. My my personal biases would have
Ollie Gordon in this group. Well, I am familiar with what he
looks like. He's your top left corner.
So Ollie, Ollie Gordon's interesting in that he, I mean
his draft, you know, at least his ADP on underdog is like not
in a same. I guess this is the thing.
The the range of how these guys are being valued now, at least
in the redraft market is all over the place, right?
Like the gap from Tooting to Ollie Gordon is pretty massive.
No one. No one wants to be brave enough
to suggest that Ollie Gordon's sophomore season might be more
indicative of who he is than his junior season.
Well, Davis, you weren't brave enough to select him over
Tooting in Sampson or Devin Neil in our rookie job.
Yeah, Giddens, Giddens and Neil go in this group of for me as
well. OK.
Yeah, I'm Lauren. I'm Lauren Gordon.
I think Gordon might deserve to be in the mat at Kiss of Death.
Weird. The thing is is I don't even
actually really like if the dude went to Oklahoma State.
I hate him so that should be me being unbiased.
I can't keep on. We're not getting Take whiplash.
I think he you know you know Corinne, this is the comp to
make the dude is Braylon Allen where his his his final season
was his least efficient season, but he has all the he's got the
body, he's got the tape If you look for the tape and I.
Don't wanna have to do a treasure hunt for the right tape
just. Be good.
Davis is like gatekeeping this, too.
And, you know, he saw one Twitter highlight that he was
like, maybe if you watch the tape.
No, this for for Ollie Gordon. This is not true.
Ollie Gordon's 2023 it's dude. I mean, we've literally done
this with Oklahoma State running backs.
I know Huba Hubbard was like the best running back in college
football. Then he sucked.
Then he was good NFL player. Where was he and the beast at?
Still perusing. Low low like RB16 or something
like right next to Damian Martinez.
But RB 16 in this class is not that bad.
He has an RB14 ahead of Neil actually.
Yeah. Oh he has.
Jerk. Was Hunter 11?
Yeah. All right.
So I just added Tooten, Giddens, Neil and Samson in here.
Pat, are there any other wide receivers that should be up here
with Aya Manor? Trey Harris, probably Jalen
Knoll. I think those two and and bond.
Bond should probably be in this tier.
So I mean this is this is choose your, choose your own.
Yeah, Yeah. Other guys, I would say Damien,
Damien Martinez, you could have Ollie Gordon in this tier.
I thought that you could. You could.
We won't, but you could. Good.
I like it. I like it too much having Ollie
Gordon and LAN Larrison here together as two guys that Davis
both loves and hates at the same time.
No, no hate to LAN LAN LAN good, good guy good.
Guy, please, please tell LAN, will you?
You do me one favor. And when you record, tell him
what? Tell him about Dylan Lobby Stout
Light after he came on the podcast.
I'm gonna have to tell him the whole sort of history.
I'm gonna have to tell him about about Pat.
I'm gonna have to tell him about Brian Hill.
I'm gonna have to tell him every running back who came on my show
basically immediately went to 0. Hey, I mean, Laird played out
his full, his full rookie contract full rookie.
Contract. That's pretty good, yeah.
And that's how old I feel the Laird bit was when he was a
rookie. And we have we're.
Still here Laird Laird is is 28 and married now.
Yeah, damn, dude. And we're doing the same old
bullshit. When we Peter, when, when you
and I went to New York, I, I was 25 years old.
Wow, I was AI was a child. Yeah, I don't know what makes me
feel really old. Right now.
Yeah, yeah, is what it is. You were a child who was not
willing to ride the subway, no. Fuck no and I stand by it.
IA 100%, IA 100%. Stand by it.
The the only man who will who will brag about his deadlift
while simultaneously saying he's too scared to ride the subway.
He. Didn't have his parent, a
guardian with him. There are more people on a New
York subway than in the town I grew up in, dude.
That would be like, yeah, I, I OK, that's easy for me to get my
head around. Then that's that's that's
overwhelming dude. Request to put Rashard Smith in
the the matic kiss of death group.
Wait, who's this Texas? Oh, Gunter Helm.
Yeah, I just had to put Gunter Helm.
In this valid I, I literally killed him.
I, I burst his ankle. I'd like to I'd like to put
Brashard Smith in that group as well.
Crane. Crane might fight back against
that. My only my only push back would
be maybe he belongs to choose your own adventure.
He is just like locked into being a fifth round pick I feel
like. I like Burchard Smith.
He's he's this year's Tyrone Tracy, right?
Like that's that's what we're hoping for.
I think that include that warrants choose your own
adventure territory. I think so.
Yeah. To raise him up a little.
Bit there might have been a couple other guys you guys
mentioned here. These are the options.
Any of these faces deserve to be in this super long.
Can we put Tez Johnson in the weighs less than a child tier?
Yeah. How about short short king?
He's not even poor dude, he's like 5-10.
You're right, he's not sure. Which one is Tess?
I mean I should be able to tell. Green the The skinny guy in the
green Polo, the guy who. How about would would be bullish
if shorter? Straight up, though, it'd be
like Restrepo would be bullish if he was faster.
Tough, It's tough. What are you?
What are you doing? If you or five, six what?
Are you doing with with Kyle Williams?
I I'm on board, he's not in this tier.
But he's I was going to say he feels like someone that you're
going to draft with the 212 in your rookie draft and just like
you're going to be like, oh, I'm never going to start him.
I think he's more of like like 3-12 like that.
At least I think that's what you have to pay.
Maybe I'm wrong, maybe it'd be like mid. 3rd Not if the Chris
Sims rankings are right. Yeah, I think actually Harmon
just had a profile on him today. Let me see.
I believe we have now slotted at least all 24 players from our
our mock draft a couple weeks. Tyler Tyler Shuck.
Oh yeah, do we want to put him in?
Here, bullish if he was not literally older than Joe Burrow.
Tyler Tyler Shuck is so old that he was Justin Herbert's backup
at Oregon. Is this is this Shuck here?
No, that's Will Howard, OK. Which What is Tyler Shuck?
He might not even be on this. I was gonna say bullish if could
not rent a car. It would be.
I I don't think, I don't think Tyler Shuck is in there.
I believe. OK, yeah.
He what? He didn't pass.
My bullish if this site bothers to him.
Bullish if he was in the tear maker.
Man, no. And and some people are still
riding or dying for Tyler shock. They're still just like I've
seen like this is such a fake sharp film thing the guys will
do. They'll put you in a non
falsifiable position where they're like you put on the tape
and you show me what Tyler Shuck would do that shows that he
doesn't belong. And it's like, dude, he had 3000
yards and eight seasons in college.
How about can I, can we just start from there?
Why do I expect him to do better than that against professionals?
I just haven't put on the tape and then just that, right?
Like this man is 26. Years old this guy right here.
So this could actually be actionable for people.
Davis, you said you had a a draft coming up.
We can now say the kind of the spots you would want to trade up
into or trade back down to that's kind of the sweet spot.
So obviously one O 1 is nice and then 3456.
So like the one O 6 looks like a sweet spot to guarantee you one
of these five here 789101112 round one round two.
So the two two, you know, pick you want.
Team, you want to know a sharp move trading back from like the
110 to the 2.1? There's just like a
psychological thing there. And there's like no, as I think
we demonstrated, there's like no difference.
Yes. And my guess is like just
randomly how we put these guys in Chadur and Dart, it's
probably how this is going to play out, right?
Because you're going to have one of these dream on round two
priorities. A couple of these guys like the
market is going to want to take the starter that now has like a
clean runway that got drafted with the early round two and be
like, yeah, Sanders, Dart, someone else can have that
value. Probably not going to be a
fantasy impact right away. So like I do think if you're
trading back to that 2122, you probably are looking at Sanders
or Dart. Yeah.
And I also think the way these things go when you're like
trying to position yourself in the draft, it's never like
efficient off of off of what way you would have it ranked.
So you can you can take some risk on and trade back a couple,
you know, a couple picks pass because there's usually some
fallers and the fallers start to happen more in the late 1st
through the the early to mid second.
Like that's where like 2O3 you might land a guy that you had
ranked 10th. You know, it can be like that.
So yeah, I think the middle of the second could be interesting
to try to catch fallers. I also do think that the the
kind of early 3rd range is gonna be pretty good because you're
gonna get, you're gonna scoop guys who you who you feel like
maybe should have gone off like 6 or 7 picks ago.
Right Yeah, because then this dream on round two priority tier
is like 2-3 to 27 and then this the choose your own adventures
like two O 8 to mid mid threes but.
I've missed weights less than a child.
I just saw that was Davis's. That's.
Good. There are 13.
There are 13 year olds who are not obese who straight up weigh
more than Ted Johnson. Derek Henry weighed more than
Ted Johnson when he was 9. Easy.
That's that might be true. Ted Johnson was so slow that it
caused him to like, question the nature of time itself as like a
concept. He was like, he was like doing
like ayahuasca tweets about like, what is being fast even
mean? Because he was so bummed out
about how the Internet responded to his 40.
I would really like to see a picture of Derrick Henry at like
18 or 17 or 16 or some age where he should not have looked the
way he did and the picture of Tez Johnson that at that same
age that. Would be.
How about the what of Andy? Reid at the yes at the cake
punk, whatever. Yeah, that would be good.
What is it? I don't.
I don't know that I know this one.
You haven't seen that photo? Oh, I I got to pull it up.
I mean, Pat, this is a classic. What is it K?
What was the pass it on 13? Oh, I don't think I've seen 13
year old Reid. Oh, there's a it's, it's here
you go. It's it's great.
Yeah. Also it's on the, it's on the
broadcast all the time. So I don't know how you've never
seen this. Oh my God, yes, Oh my God, he's
#22 but Oh my God, dude. You've never seen this bat it
it. Is all the.
All the time. Oh my God, that's crazy.
I mean, I I'm a red zone guy primarily.
Unless this is what this is what they're not gotten to on Red
zone. Oh man.
Man. Man, I was trying to get a
bigger version here, but yeah, it is.
It is a special, special footed photo here.
Look at this, this. Imagine this kid getting ready
for his crazy. That's crazy.
What are we doing? What are you doing?
That's a man. It's like a 35.
It's like a bull on top selling mustache.
It's So let's see Andy Reid. I I got to do some.
I think they said he was 13 here, but I want to confirm this
was from 71 and yeah, 13 year old Andy Reid.
Nuts. He's like literally is the exact
same height as he is today and he's added.
On so many levels. Good God, look at this kid.
Part of the That kid looks seven years old, so.
That's Tess Johnson. That's Tess Johnson.
Dude. That little known, little known
fact. That's Tess Johnson.
He's like 2 times as big as this kid's dad and he's fine.
Oh my. God, yeah.
All right, all right, well, that was that was actually a helpful
exercise. I I will say like thinking it
through and I mean, I guess this makes sense, but the one O 1
like in dynasty drafts. That we're seeing with the 13
year old, yes, right, yeah. That was the 13 year old, 13
year old 1971. One O 1 is nuts because you get
Genti, you get the two O 1, which is the end of that tier we
talked about where you might be able to get the quarterback.
And then three O 1. You're in the sweet spot of that
Choose your own adventure. Yeah, yeah, the oh man, that's,
that's a great. The the thing about this year,
you know, one of the reasons that Gentie's in that snap
decline tier, I think is that when you look at like the way I
tear these guys out, I would say that like gentie's in like a no
brainer one O 1. Like you don't have to think
about it tier. The kind of an instant top 12
startup asset like that. That's what you're getting at
least top 15 anyway. But I have them ranked 12th and
then the next guy's like a solid middle of the first round.
You know, whoever you decide, Hunter would be higher than that
if he was definitely a receiver. But I think baking in that risk,
everyone after that is like, there's no guys that I would
slot in as like solid early first round rookie picks.
It goes from like the clearest cut 101 type of dude you can
find to especially for non quarterback to like, yeah,
totally happy to like Psych to take this guy at the 1:06.
But there's no there's like no middle.
And that's why I think if you're trying to trade from one O 2,
it's like you're starting with the one O 5, trying to get to 1
O1 if you're trying to go one O 2 to one O 1.
One O 2 feels feels really gross after doing this exercise.
It's a. Bad year to have the one O 2.
Trying to trade the one O 2 as much as as I can.
Trying to trying to ship it out, trying to get bets.
I guess you could ride it out and hope and hope Hunter just.
There are also some like good guys who are pretty gettable
right now. Like both The Jets guys, Breece
and Garrett Wilson are like super gettable.
Like trying to think of like other young guys T might be like
kind of gettable right now. Like there are some guys who are
more gettable than their projected points would be, which
is, you know, kind of interesting.
You know who you could get right now, Snap, you could get the one
O 2 and something else you get Kyler Murray.
People are just like they're done with that.
They're like Kyler. That guy stinks.
I would. Take I would take Kyler.
Over the one O 2. Yeah.
Because that's I've been kind of the Hampton bull on this
podcast, but I guess, and I'm Hampton bull in a lot of setups
because I like him a lot in best ball.
I think he's underpriced because he's going to get draft in the
first round, potentially to a really good landing spot.
And that's he's going to be a lot more expensive after the
draft. But I don't like I'm not that
bullish on him from the prospect profile perspective.
So if you could trade out of the one O 2 for like a like a Kyler
Murray, like hell yeah. If you could go, if you could
get like, what would you have to add to the one O 2 to get Drake
May? Is that possible?
Depends if I'm dealing with you or a normal.
Can I get Drake? Can I get more Drake May in my
life? You could I I was actually just
writing that up. I was like I so I'm writing up
like a strategy guide for like what to do and my advice
literally with the one O 2 to the one O 5 is trade it.
And I was like going through some names and I was like, you
know what? You could for sure get Drake,
May you? Could I?
Think you should do that? You should do that immediately.
Getting the one O Drake may set up better.
We should be more confident that he's good and he's set up to to
actually produce some this year. Why wouldn't you I I would
instantly trade the one O 2 for Drake May.
How much would it cost to get Caleb?
Caleb the Drafter is probably like.
They're just doubling. Down they're they're just
doubling down yeah, they're. Nicks.
Oh, I mean, Nix there. The guy who took Nix in your
draft is like, thinks he found a 20 in his old jacket pocket.
He's like, he's like, dude, take him.
Take him, please. Yeah.
I mean, maybe you get Nix plus.
I would. I would take that.
You know you could get, you know you could get, if you had the
one O 6, you could get JJ McCarthy and a wide receiver.
You could get, you could get JJ. You could get JJ McCarthy and
Brandon Iuke right now for the One O 6.
The one O 6 I'm almost less inclined to trade 'cause I'm
like. I'm getting the back at.
The the end of the tier the one O 2.
Could I get Herbert for the one O 2?
Herbert people are their own. I've never been one of these
people, but they're kind. Of their own people, our own
thing. You know, you know the I.
Do I know what you? Mean we all know the Herbert
people and they're very select group of individuals all right
Davis where it is or. Points.
Where is this dynasty article coming out?
I don't think we've been blessed with Davis Matic written word in
a long time. Patreon.com slash.
OK, I didn't know if you were, you know, you'd hit up dlf.com
and said I got. Yeah, yeah, I'll be, I'll be
doing, I'll be doing freelance articles on fantasypigskin.com.
Real rents due you guys. OK, this is I got to talk about
this Pepper, Tony said just Herbert almost won the Super
Bowl. Show some respect.
I had the most Liam fucking moment yesterday of all time.
We were talking about something and he goes, you know, Keon
Coleman almost won the Super Bowl, referring to the fact that
the Bills almost quote, UN quote, won the Super Bowl.
Wow and. It took What is he talking
about? What's his case?
Basically, he was like, Oh well, if the Bills had beat the Chiefs
in the playoffs, they would have easily won the conference
championship and then easily won the Super Bowl.
That's that's diabolical. No, it was it was the most it
was so good. And it took me a second to
realize what he was saying. Like I thought he was talking
about someone else. And then I was like, no, you did
just mean in your head cannon. The Bills were basically a a
Dalton Kincaid 4th down catch away from winning the Super
Bowl. I thought it's that easy.
It was it was the way Liam sprinkled it in it.
It was, it was fantastic. Man, so good.
Pat, what's going on at at Leg Up?
A couple of articles out this week did the final part of my
rookie running backs, and then Michael Dugner had an article on
predicting closing line value of the running back position and
how he's playing that in his remaining best ball drafts.
Going to have my wide receiver article or articles out next
week to finish up the rookie stuff.
And then, yeah, check out Dynasty rankings, basketball
rankings all over at legendaryepisode.com.
Beautiful Davis, what else you got going?
Streaming Big Board's about full.
I've got 20 left So so got to get done there.
Crane, you want to you want to hop on tomorrow morning again?
I do. OK, there we go.
View Someone tagged me. Hang on, They might have a
photo. OK, Yeah.
You get a share. Frankie Dash sent this to me
too. It's it's insanely good.
OK, Yeah. And how do I share this though?
Just to open it, open it, open it in preview here.
Do you want me to do it? Yeah, no.
That'd be really funny if he sent you guys different content.
It would be, it would be. I, I meant to, I meant to send
this to Pat earlier. It's very good though.
He must have made this with AI. Beautiful.
No. Here's.
Someone's coping and seeding about it.
Oh, this is different. So there's there's Henry.
And here's Ted Tess Johnson again.
This is Derek Henry. In high school.
In high school.
And at the same age in their respective lives, here is Tess
Johnson. Beautiful.
Now are now are you going to share?
Davis, What do you got? Yes, hold on, let me I will add
a slide and or PDF. Oh, it's not letting me upload a
JPG so I'm not going to share next week on Jason.
OK, we will. People in our discord are
confused about which one is which.
Yeah, yeah, All right. Also, apparently I'm in a tears
mood because I just realized my article for Fantasy Life this
week, I ranked by tears all of the landing spots in the league
for running backs, which was kind of an illustrative
exercise. For one, how good this running
back class is, But two, like how many good spots there are
available up for grab? So if you want to keep an eye
out for that also, I love that Frankie says I didn't send that
to Pat. He told me he in the DM he said
he said for you and Corrine so I assumed he sent it to you too.
All right, we will be back next week.
We have a guest booked. I would love to get a rain check
with Danny. I don't know if we're going to
be able to pull that off schedule wise.
Maybe we can get him on our draft stream.
He's not busy, but we're going to have Dwayne McFarlane from
Fantasy Life next week. Obviously as a supermodel up at
Fantasy Life has been in the weeds with the prospecting
there, so we will talk through this class again with him next
week. Otherwise, the fellows will be
back for ADP chasing on Tuesday. Really strong show this Tuesday
if you guys missed it with Jacob broadcasting from Portugal.
Otherwise, become a YouTube member, join us in the discord,
Great group of ship chasers in there talking ball at all hours
of the day. Have a great rest of your
weekend. We'll see you guys next time on
ship chasing.