Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to ship, chasing ffp.
See Playoff Challenge week. We have a full week of
programming kicking off. Today with our friend, John
Daigle from NBC Sports Edge. But before we get to the playoff
challenge, we have a very important news out of Chicago.
Listen man, have a seat. I was Consulting with my dear
beloved mother last night as she talked to me in with my
customers story and warm glass of milk.
And I asked her how she felt about this Chicago Bear season
and she reiterated to me as, oh, good Mothers.
Would How Deeply deeply disappointed?
She is in me. Personally, Matt you couldn't
get it done with the last first round quarterback pick and then
you built the offense around a journeyman who looked
overmatched even in preseason, he forced the new first run QB
pick to play in that offense. You called far, fewer lie down
passes when he was in there though ask him to succeed as a
pastor on the obvious passing downs and taking away the
non-obvious passing down. Look, I don't actually know
anything about any of this. I read it in the sub stack
somewhere. Anyway, everything is off the
team sucks. Who was at QB, it's time for a
change. Please pack up your office.
And PS. Olin kreutz is a liar and a
thief and probably a murderer. Yeah, yeah, Matt we're still on
for Friday. Reservations at 6:00.
Welcome to ship, chasing felt good to break that news here.
Even the Boomer, you know, having trouble ending the video
there. I love editing software.
Oh my God, the reviews are already coming in on the ship
chasing Twitter. I think that's a bit.
We're going to have to bring back grouches.
You Shepherd in the next era of Chicago coaching John Diggle.
Welcome to ship chasing, man. Last time you were here, I don't
think you remembered being here. You're muted.
This is the first five minutes after that so much.
So that I think I sent a few texts the next day and over the
course of a couple weeks, learning things about that, show
that I was not aware of. So happy it took me 48 Hours of
recover from that last show. But we're doing well, we
scheduled it for an early afternoon instead so good to go
right now. Yes.
Yeah, you found out things that were said on that episode via an
atom Levitan solo pod. That's how that's how blacked
out you were. And I didn't realize that I was
intelligent enough at least in my state, to mute the mic before
I what happened, I know Gretchen was messaging in the next day
asking what happened? Well, what happened is, I fell
asleep on the bathroom floor, that's what happened to stream,
your still being open, and I didn't realize like what had
happened before that then I went back.
Watch. A couple minutes got embarrassed
by that couple minutes, turned it off and said, okay, well
that's for the archives forever. So we'll just leave it at that.
My favorite part was beat, never took your window off the street,
which is that? Well, he Casey came back.
I wanted him to feel like he could slide right back.
Um, all right, so as I mentioned, as you guys have
heard, we are obsessed with the FPC Playoff Challenge last year.
I think we did three shows at this year, we said we're kicking
it up a notch. We're going five.
Shows. So this entire week we're going
to have a show each day. Pat why don't you for the
uninitiated? Just give a very high level
overview of what this contest is and then we can kind of drill
down from there. Yes, so the way this contest
works is that you select a typical FPC lineup which is a
tight end premium scoring format.
The normal format has two Flex has two wide receivers tight end
quarterback. Kicker defense, this has 4 Flex
has because of the way, the playoffs are set up but that
still leaves two teams that don't fit into your lineup.
So essentially what you're doing is you're picking one player
from every NFL team in the playoffs.
Up to that, you completely hard Fade Into don't pick anyone from
it all and then includes kicker and defense.
So you can only pick Mahomes. You can't pick Kelsey and he'll
if you pick the homes, Etc. So you just pick one player from
each NFL team. It's pretty simple, but the way
that the sort of chalk condenses and stuff, makes this a pretty
fun contest. You also have to be thinking
through which teams are going to advance because you're getting
their their scores through the entire playoffs and the Super
Bowl counts for double points. So you got to think who's going
to the Super Bowl and and when a team gets the Super Bowl, which
player do you actually want in the Super Bowl Gretch?
What is it? Cuz that you fall in love with
this contest each year? What is it about this contest
that gets you. So excited.
I don't like the game theory. I guess there's so many layers
to it obviously, right? I mean, at first, it's very
simple. You were just saying this in our
chat, like it at first, it seems very simple.
And then you start peeling back layers and you're like, you
know, there's it's a, it's like a puzzle, you know, like how you
want to play. It's kind of like DFS.
But obviously with the additional elements that
Patrick's described of you. Only get one player from each
team. You got to be able to understand
how the different positions are going to play out over the four
games. Obviously teams that are playing
more games matter and the double points in the Super Bowl
matters. But at the end of the day, it's
like there's this math element. We're like who's going to
differentiate from their position.
The most, is there going to be a quarterback who plays for games
and as a big Super Bowl and winds up scoring 100 points, and
every other quarterback, because that's possible, right?
Or that's also possible tight end, it's less possible running
back and receiver. But obviously, if the Fillmore
spots there and those guys when they do differentiate, even by
30 points, are going to be lost to be in the in the optimal,
what you're going to want. So so many ways to consider it,
a lot of these teams have the, you know, the clear top dudes on
their rosters as like the clear. Producers other ones have a few
more. Some are, you know, highly
unconcentrated like think about like the Patriots, right?
Some are concentrated but they have multiple options.
Still like a little Cowboys and bangles, right?
They have like three guys that we know are the guys, but in the
passing game, but like, it could be any of them over a multiple
weeks. And so like, how do you play all
that stuff? The game theory of it is really
fast. Innate to me, Diego.
What is the the first thing where your brain goes when you
open up this blank line up? And, you know, you have to start
filling out a roster that is set on Saturday, and you can't touch
it for the rest of the playoffs. It may be more recency bias, but
we've seen the last two seasons in particular, that the
Workhorse running backs at lower seeds are typically the ones
that pull people through pull the winners through more
importantly, a couple of years ago, we got Dalvin cook with the
Vikings. Underdogs in New Orleans.
I think it was last year we had the Browns, which in hindsight,
it seems crazy to say the Browns are underdogs against the
Steelers nonetheless, they were underdogs and Nick Chubb, lit,
the FPC Playoff Challenge on fire.
And so, that's kind of where I go to First was saying, which
Workhorse running back. Can I get 20 plus touches out
of, for at least two weeks in an upset?
And when you're looking down the list, I think there are honestly
a couple of viable options here. Not so much an upset, but if you
wanted to and I'm sure we'll get into the game theory of all this
eventually, but if you want to Pivot to Joe Mixon and that may
be popular. Since the last time we saw the
Bengals defeat the Raiders. It was Donkey Zack Taylor that
made an appearance with 30 running back carries or 32
running back here. Is it 29 passes mix, it himself,
had 30 carries. You could also go the Patriots
over the bills. Knowing it's going to be a run
heavy games for the Patriots, and although the bills did run,
I believe it finished the year. Well, no, not because because
Monday night ruined this stat. But prior to that the bills ran
the most fourth-down attempts after.
McDermott had basically been a coward last year's AFC
Championship game against the Chiefs kicking field goals
inside the 20. And Arrowhead feeling really
good about a 6-0 lead for some reason at the end of the first
quarter thinking that would actually matter.
And then earlier this year against the Bucks, choose opting
for field goals as well. But did finally get aggressive
trying to win and feeding the Patriots.
Last time we saw them, I believe that was over Christmas weekend,
holiday weekend, at least and so thinking the bills, let could
somehow, again, dominate the Patriots.
I don't know if that's the case. So much.
So We can also look to remind Ray Stevenson or Damien Harris.
Pending our monitors Stevenson's injury shakes out in particular,
in this first round or if you want to go to Eagles bucks, I
think the Eagles, you know, as scary as this as dumb as it
sounds scary. As idiotic as this sounds.
I think the Eagles have a legitimate chance here, given
the covid list for the bucks. And more importantly, all the
injuries happening over the second half of the season.
If even if you take away quarterback carries like the the
Bucks played the bills, the Bucks, played a couple other
Russian Court, Max you take away quarterback carries from week,
nine on and the Bucks are still bottom.
Five and percentage of 10 plus runs allowed to opposing running
backs and we know that's how the Eagles are going to approach
this game and they had success doing that the last time they
played the Bucks and that was without Dallas, Carter those
before Jordan, however, was a factor.
So I'm just looking at these three matchups thinking, how can
I get contrarian from the rest of the field in these particular
instances? Yeah, and I think there that's
where we're going to, you know, as the week of Olives, you know.
Next tomorrow we're going to hit you know and Early look at
ownership projections because that's really when we're going
to be able to see, you know, where do we think the field is
going? Where's the field being
overconfident? It really does kind of play out
similar to DFS. In that regard, where it's not
necessarily like you're trying to be right?
We're trying to get paid off when we are right in the biggest
way possible. Pat.
We went hard at this last year went even deeper than we had in
previous years. What would you say are some of
the kind of like key takeaways that we learn from last year's
experience or whether mistakes? Want to make again or things you
want to try to emulate here this year Well to just emphasize
diggle's point about the running backs.
I think one of the best plays probably the best play that we
made last year was cam Akers. Who was another Underdog running
back, who hit? And you know, the names that
they offloaded I think we're definitely interesting guys.
He didn't mention now as you hear us and Josh Jacobs, I think
will be really interesting how people play those guys this
year. But But yeah, I think for me the
ownership was a little bit different, a quarterback than I
had projected it, in particular, I had over projected, Tom, Brady
under projected Josh Allen and I think people were just playing
that position more for like the projected points rather than
trying to make sure the quarterback was in the Super
Bowl. Tom, Brady actually ended up
being a pretty nice play because he wasn't all that highly owned
and they obviously did win the Super Bowl.
So that's something I want to be like thinking through a little
bit better. It's just a Back projected
ownership and I think it's tough like is I look for the
quarterback. The way it's going to split up
is tough because I don't think Alan's going to be quite as
popular as he was last year. And there's a few guys that are
like semi-interesting like Dak you know that that I don't think
will be like really popular either.
Yeah. And then I think one of the
things I've noticed to with this contest and this happens in a
lot of fantasy stuff but recency bias plays a major, you know
part. In in which players are used the
most from. From teams.
I think the Bangles are pretty interesting example, you know,
Jabbar Chase. Coming off of these really big
games. Are there any players that
you're kind of noticing from this you know week 18 or these
past few weeks that you think are going to be incredibly
popular just because of how strong they finished.
I don't have any great ones in mind.
I was thinking about this watching the game last night.
The crazy game that Mike Williams is, was just getting
targeted so much late and I looked it up.
For this morning, Keenan, Allen only had eight targets.
I think it might have left some stuff toward Williams, if the
charger would have got in, but they didn't obviously, but
Jacobs was huge for them down the stretch.
I mean that's one where I think it took a little while but
people recognize that Jacobs has a little bit of a different role
this year than he has the last couple years, you still running,
excuse me, Still Still The Workhorse, still getting gold
and touches and all that but he's running more routes and
things and so we are seeing like the like we're talking about
some definitely some interesting running back.
Back options. But as we start to like dick
peel, back the layers and look at all the teams a little bit.
There's not, it's not as deep of a contest at running back,
especially when we lost JT, we lost Eckler.
Potentially guys like Jacobs, I think are interesting in that
regard are at least will be looked at positively, you know,
you had a really strong finish and he's such a key part of what
they do. I don't think I'll have people
going to pick the Raiders to win.
So, maybe that's not a great example.
I hadn't let the interesting thing about.
I think just one thing. Contest in general is that you
can kind of play it two different ways or a combination
of both of these ways but you can pick up sets where let's
say, you go like Jacobs and then you go like Bangles kicker or
you know, just don't select any one from them at all or you can
go, Josh Jacobs and Jamar Chase and play for it to be a shootout
where you go, you know, Darren Waller Jamarcus, whatever you
want to do. And I think getting those
shootouts right because there's probably going to be one to two
like true shootout. There's some high over unders
on. Us on the Slate as well so you
know if you if you nail the shootout players then that gives
you a big Edge and then in that sense you can pick I think gives
you a little bit more leeway to pick like more chalky advances
as well because you're getting sort of an advantage.
You're setting a lead up with with getting that shootout.
It's kind of like the the chump play from last year and if you
would have done that with the Steelers receiver Juju a being
the highest scoring one but Deonte or was also really good
that came here. Is a good point though that is
an overarching emphasis for me and it's Dalton Schultz and
stock up for the Cowboys. But more importantly, it's when
you look at this slate like just full, you can Flex all Titans.
If you wanted to like we brought all the big dogs to the playoffs
Dalton Schultz like carrying a 20 plus percent Target share
from his last three games of the postseason.
Plus you have Gronk and you know, we'll talk about Evans a
little bit too. But Gronk is there George?
Kittel Darren Waller. If you want to get a little
contrarian Travis Kelce. We have to wait and see about
Tara tyriq Wills injury because that will I'll also play in the
Kelsey's ownership, so overall, like playing all the tight ends
especially in, you know a tight end.
Premium option is is just is going through the heavyweight
adoption this lineup super fun because it's telling his guys
earlier like I think this is like my mind clears early take
away to was, that was a tight ends and I was just going to
bring to you this comment but no I completely agree with.
You got hurt another one, you mentioned the Eagles.
Like I think you know he'll be somewhat popular play from the
Eagles from people who don't pay them the the Which obviously
talk about the fade strategy as well, you have two full fade.
Two teams you have to saw off a two teams with a kicker a
defense pick. And so those four teens who
they're going to be a lot of times Pat, you're going to have
to comment on this better than I can.
But it seems like it concentrates.
And last year, one of the things we get some of our limits, we
played some Washington, we played some Chicago skill
players because they were teams that were going to be heavily
faded or maybe their kickers and he's would be thrown in the
eagles. Look like that team.
This year the Patriots look like that.
I think with the Raiders getting in, they look like that team as
well, maybe a soft fade and the Steelers.
I mean, I think those are probably the for likeliest
candidates in Arizona, sort of low-key possibility to be soft
faded in some spots with their kicker defense.
But yeah, I mean, there's gonna be interesting ways to play
those. Those specific teams Goddard
might be one for the Eagles today was but Daigle name, all
the other ones. I mean, you have Kelsey, you've
killed you of Waller. You have Gronk, you have irked
potentially for the Cardinals as their best option.
If you folks, you have got Nerd there.
It's an insane tight end field. Yeah, well, the thing for me
with good guppy for I was just gonna emphasize in in Gretsch
said it, but just because they're going to be terms, we
say a lot this week, full fade, obviously means you're not using
a single player in your roster. We use soft fate if you're using
them at kicker or defense. You're not, you don't want your
soft Fade to make it to the Super Bowl, and so that's the
kind of terminology there. But go ahead, Pat.
Yeah, I think Gretchen's point about this condensing is is
really on like we're going to we saw last year 74% of the field
either hard faded or soft fated La.
So I mean and then 82% of the field had some kind of fade on
Washington 67 and a half one Chicago.
So I saw we're on the Rams last year, oh, cuz gone Ram, thank
God. They weren't Underdog to write,
but they had, you know, Court of the Vegas money line for, you
know, just their odds of winning the NFC Vegas had a six point,
three percent chance of making the Super Bowl.
You look at Tennessee, they had a nine point, one percent chance
to make the Super Bowl, not all that much higher, they were
fated by 6% of the field. That's all faiths.
So you do see it kind of concentrate the other way where
the like for example I think the Rams are probably going to have
Around the same amount of feeds is the Titans did last year
because they've got a player like their country last year in
Kubrick up that everyone's gonna want to play, and it's hard to
even talk yourself into scenarios with the Rams lose and
Cooper cup. You know, you'd rather have the
kicker than Cooper cup, like really, I think it's the weather
I've come so it's going to be you see it kind of
concentrating, both ways. It's not completely synced up to
the chances that these teams make Super Bowl.
In one thing that I noticed that happens and I was just doing an
underdog draft and it's something that I think can
actually apply to this as well is kind of the markets certainty
over some of these matchups and and Dominic mentioning this
Cincinnati Las Vegas game here. So you know the money line for
the Raiders winning is plus to 15.
So that's an implied probability of 31% one, almost one out of
three times. They win that game yet I just do
an underdog draft. Joe Mixon goes in the second
round and I take Josh Jacobs in the 10th round and that kind of
dynamic is going to play out in the ffp.
PC contest as well. Where even though, I have a 30%
chance the way people are forced to make decisions in this
contest leads to more. Binary decisions where that gets
shifted down. Once we see Josh Jacobs
ownership come in, it probably won't be reflected in their
implied probability to actually win this game.
And so similar to DFS contest, you know, getting outside your
comfort zone with some of these things that everyone isn't
predicting to happen. Can really be how you get a leg
up on things. Yeah, I think that's right.
And I think with Cincinnati that's another team where it's
just very hard to see them getting a lot of soft or full
Fates because you basically have to bet that, you know, Chase
Higgins, Mixon. None of those guys gets there in
a loss against the Raiders defense that we know people can
put up points on and so it just makes me very uncomfortable and
I think the fact that you then immediately go well I'm not
going to do that. So then you slot in let's say
Jamar Chase. It makes it easier to fade the
Raiders as well because you're like, well, I already picked a,
so I might as well. So you kind of like talk
yourself into it and by the way you mentioned earlier, we were
talking about the recency bias element.
I mean, Daniel Carlson Scott as much recency bias.
Is anyone so I think we could see a popular, Raiders kicker
with welcome anytime. Yeah.
I imagine offense will take all the past catching options with
them. You want one other note, just
broadly because we're kind of doing the easy takeaway.
I think when you're building teams, one thing that you got to
keep in mind, if you're not super familiar with this contest
or anything is and we kind of are hitting on this but is what
the matchups are, right? Like so you kind of want to tell
yourself a bracket, this might be very obvious, but one of the
things you don't want to wind up with is a soft fade in a hard
fade. Any combination, where the
playing each other like, say you really, you wanted to fade The
Bangles You also faded the Raiders in some way.
One of those things has to win and in all likelihood, if a team
plays two games, were probably going to see not the kicker or
the defense, certainly not a full fade.
They're going to they're going to have somebody in from a skill
position, be in you know the optimal or you're going to want
somebody. And so looking at all these
first round matchups, like, say you're not real high on Tampa
and you decide you're going to just play their kicker or
something. Then you probably also the want
to make sure you get an eagle skill player in because one of
the ways that make sense is the Eagles actually winning that
game, right? You don't want to have the
Eagles as a full fade and Tampa's kicker.
That's the, you know, you're locking yourself in from a
structural perspective to having, either a softer full
Fate on a team, that's going to play at least two games.
And so, definitely, look at the matchups.
And we see this every year, by the way, might seem kind of like
an obvious point, but you see you go through and you see teams
lineups that have part of the bracket just locked in, okay?
I'm going to have either no one in the next round or a kicker or
defense. Yeah.
Yeah, one other thing we should mention too because this is what
really gets the juices flowing and is what is so fun about this
is so they do have two different contests this year.
They have a two hundred dollar price point and a thirty five
dollar price point. The 200 dollar contest has
500,000 dollars up top. So this is the prize pool.
And it does extend all the way down to 800 50th place and
there's some different prizes in here as far as Main Event in
trees, Etc. And I believe, what is the
Backspin is it 150 Max in 350 Max 7250 total entries.
Okay yeah so and last year this did end up filling, was it mid
to late week that it filled caracal.
Yeah so if you are yeah it'll definitely fill.
I believe the 35 dollar one is bigger but yeah just making that
things are 35 was later if I think I think it did definitely
feel. I think if you want to get in, I
think you should register. Ginobli early anything we saw
this year was the FPC main event filled, I think on Monday or
Tuesday of the final week. I was still looking to get into
some to add some additional teams.
And by I think it was by least Tuesday, you know, they still
have drafts on Friday and Saturday, after the Thursday
opener, even those were all booked so and those are those
are more fun to do, right? One thing I would say is like if
you have kind of the budget to do like one of the 200 or you
know, you can do a Of the 35 to the handful of the 35 would be
my recommendation. Because yeah, it's fun to Think
Through different scenarios although I think the payout
structure, splatter on the 200. So something would you?
How would you recommend say, if someone is going to make three
lineups for this and I was in the ship chasing Discord and it
seemed like most people were kind of in that range, you know,
talking about, you know, making 125 lineups for the contest.
Would it be by making, you know, however, many lineups you're
going to make make that many different brackets.
And then reverse engineer your pics from your bracket, would
that be kind of your starting point?
Yeah, I think making the bracket is a great place to start and
like you know, even within that trying to think through like,
okay, I'm playing this game to shoot out and playing, you know,
if you have a contrarian idea about a team advancing, I think
you really want to play your line up with that idea, in mind.
And another thing to think there is like if a team's going to
advance, how are they going to advance like if you're betting
like, Okay so let's say Patriots.
If you're taking the Patriots, you know, the chalk skill player
in the pages of me, Damien Harris, but if you're betting on
the Patriots, to advance multiple rounds, you still
probably want to take Damien Harris, you know, even though
he's the chalky guy because if they beat the bills that you
know we know exactly what the game plan is going to be and if
you know if they end up winning multiple games it's probably
going to be on the back of the Run game.
So then you want to like have that reflected in what else you
do with that lineup? Maybe you get contrarian with
the bills, you know, I think they would play the Titans in
the next round potential for most likely, so you get
contrarian around what you're doing with those other teams,
you know, for example, maybe you don't play Derrick Henry because
the the Titans can be losing so many passing more or whatever it
is. But I wouldn't necessarily like
talk myself off of the main piece of the team that I want
advancing. Because you just want to thank
through like how is this team winning in the first place?
Yeah, and a guy feel like that there's a few of these teams
that are pretty interesting. I know we keep mentioning the
Angles, but they're a team. When they have a lead there,
more than content to just run the shit out of the ball, we
just saw them play, you know, pants on fire high, high rate
over expectation, passing these past two games.
Are there any of these teams that you think are fragile, as
far as kind of like their pass rate?
You know, if you're deciding between your Joe Mixon, verse
your pass, Catcher Type situations here.
I think the Cowboys would probably be another example of
that you trying to egg me on but thank you perfect.
Yeah, yeah. Considering this past week
against Phillies. Second stringers the first time
we talking 70 yards, rushing salute, five I think I'll stay
away from cotton Zeke and this slate.
And this challenge, I think the Bucks are really interesting
since we're waiting on Leonard fournette.
Remember like Ford it was the actual engine of the Bucks
offense over the last month of the Season.
As a Brady was like slowly decaying before our very eyes
and then they had no choice but to pass heavier.
And of course then they lost Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown.
And so now in this in this challenge, like I do, I would
really love to see what format will be Ross for that especially
because I can't imagine it'll be high since Gronk and Evans or
right there and super interesting ideas, especially
Brady as well. And I'd love to see what Derrick
Henry is going to be the all know you have like a lean right
now. I don't Henry will be over AJ
Brown I think Henry I have Henry right now and it's 70% is kind
of a an item 8 bring that down. I had like 70 percent and then
AJ Brown at like 26% Or something.
But Henry was it I think 71 percent last year and they had
lower odds of advancing and I know it's coming off the injury
but it's just like I don't really see how people get off
Henry with, you know, there's so much excitement for him to come
back. Adrian Brown was only eighteen
percent last year. So actually have him off from
where he was last year. I think people are going to play
the Titans because they get the home game in the by.
So they're not, you're not going to see much Fades.
You saw some Fades last year. A little So that kind of boosts
AJ Brown and Derrick Henry. I know that was, that was my
first read, but are you, are you thinking it might come in, lower
than that diggle? No, I was thinking maybe lower,
but you, I feel like you have a better feel on it than I do.
It still seems insane that I understand, it's, you know,
similar projected ownership to what he was last year, but also
like, this is foot surgery. We're talking about and it's
very first game back. So I don't know.
That seems like good enough reason to maybe go the other way
and take AJ Brown, and hopefully - game scripted also, I've kind
of been thinking Thinking about that one as well.
But honestly like right now you have the Bucks are big for me,
CAM Akers, kind of ruin the Sony Michel touchdown, equity for me,
over Cooper corpse so you can't go that one and then I think the
most popular one will probably be Devin Singletary.
Over Josh Allen and Steph digs. Wow, what an awesome season but
you know, there's a lot of reasons I'm sure we'll talk
about it throughout the offseason but just a naturally
hitting regression this year and not being really a ceiling
player. I think Singletary will probably
get steamed quite a bit. Yeah, I saw someone.
I think it will be similar to those guys.
Yeah, I've really, really think. So, just it just given the
overall peripherals of the last five games 20-plus touches and
three of his last four. We've seen Zach Moss.
Now, three consecutive games always active over.
Matt Braden now has not handled more than five carries in that
stretch. So it's just literally all
Devon. Singletary, soaking up more
carries inside the 5-yard line than Josh Allen has over the
last month as well. And so yeah.
I think Singletary is actually going to get pretty popular.
I think the big difference between him and some of those
back. So is it Josh?
Island. Pat.
You were saying Josh, I'm probably gonna be the chuckle
QB, right. I think he still will be the
choc you be. This is anyone else come to
mind? If I think the homes will be up
from where he was last year, because we're not too sure about
about Hill and Kelsey. But I don't think he'll surpass
Alan. I think I had my first, I
haven't even completed a full run of the projections yet, but
I had Alan at maybe like 30 percent.
And he was, I think, thirty eight percent last year and
having the homes around 20% and he was like, you know, Maybe 16
17 or something. So of Allen is 30 and Diggs is
going to catch at least like 10 plus, I don't think anyone will
play the awesome knocks in this tight end slate and I don't know
about the other receivers but Singletary.
I can see him getting up there but I don't know, I guess I
would question if he can get over 50.
All right. If that's what if I'm thinking
ahead, like, I do love Singletary.
So I'd love to get him around 4050 percent.
Yeah, man, I was thinking that, you know, it would be more like,
you know, something like 20 Singletary and like 40, ya dig.
I'm, I will also just say to diggle's point to like, I was
kind of surprised even over the past few weeks, like, projection
systems were giving Singletary. A ton of Of points.
They were just continuing to project him well and I think
people finally, over this stretch have just been like, all
right, this isn't some gross, you know, committee and the team
never runs. I think I could just feel kind
of public sentiment swing back into, like, okay, I can trust
Evan Singletary, that's just kind of the vibe, I've been
getting, so I kind of agree. And the other thing, the big
elephant in the room with Singletary with Derrick Henry is
Jonathan Taylor. Cover is gone, you know, that
was going to soak up so so much. And now people are really going
to be looking for these spots and I could definitely see, you
know, Taylor and Henry for sorry Henry and Singletary soaking up
a lot of AFC running back place. I mean, I freaking love Jonathan
Taylor but I'm so tilted. They couldn't win and get in
this tournament because Taylor was going to be on every single
team and and rightfully so they run the ball so much even when
they lose, they run the ball ton.
But like there were two been pretty solid Equity.
I think in just softer for fading, the Colts and saying,
they're going to lose and Taylor's not going to have
enough. Points because he's not catching
enough passes or went basically the game that he had against
James. I don't think he had a big final
total. Yeah.
Anyway, he's not in the tournament.
Yeah, what? Oh, I was going to ask you.
I feel like on the running back front to what makes it so
interesting and specifically in the NFC, I mean, a lot of these
back fields are muddled, you know, as far as you can make.
I think pretty good cases for multiple running backs on a lot
of these teams. So does that push people away
from making stands on on any of these guys?
I mean they go. What are you?
What are your thoughts on like Cardinals backfield Rams?
Backfield you know, because there is a lot of uncertainty
with these Chiefs backfield I think is another one too for
these and even we talked about the bills like maybe even given
Singletary. It's all going to come down to
the injury reports in the last few years.
I can't recall this, many question marks going to the
postseason, we did add a couple teams but just the fact that
literally the decision between James Conner Chase.
Edmonds is huge because it depends on which one's going to
be available after Connor left. That game with rib injury.
Gabriel Davis is usage, comes down.
To is Emmanuel Sanders going to be healthy and then also just
for what else are we dealing with?
Oh, the fournette stuff? And like, how bullets are the
reports on fournette coming back?
Yes, I think that's the biggest thing.
And also Ronald Jones, by the way, behind for that who's also
injured. Now, to see eh and Darryl
Williams Darryl Williams who left with an injury and Yeah,
there's just I think that's what's going to happen here and
I do Wonder just like DFS like whenever a couple weeks ago we
got Chase Edmunds News, 15 minutes for lineup block and so
that was not a reason for me to jump on, Chase Edmunds.
That was a reason for me to fade him and that was the one game he
didn't do well because that's when everyone is just trying to
Tinker even if they know it's not in their best interest.
We're all just trying to change their lineup according to the
most recent information they have.
And so like if some of these injury reports come down on like
Friday afternoon and it makes a huge difference in a chalk
running back. I would just think that's what
people naturally do and react accordingly to that news.
That's interesting. Well, I wanted to ask you about
for net and Gronk. There's actually a whole series
of decision points that go, that's running back versus the
tight end that I'm that I'm basically saving for last as I'm
going through and doing these initial projections ownership
but you know, Connor hurts Zeke, Schultz fournette Kronk.
I think all of those are going to be really really key.
Then not even to get into how much killer gets played over
Debo. But I think those those tight
Running back decisions are are really tough to think through
right now, are you suggesting Gronk for net as Evans is the
most obvious player Evans? The one that's going to go
overlooked, he's gonna go overlooked.
I think, he'll go overlooked. I think he'll be the third most
popular play of those. I would take my steel from P
time. I would take Evans in a vacuum,
over Gronk. And I think, I think that's
something we're sort of seeing at least on our first look right
now, is that some of these wide receivers feel like, Like they
might wind up being some, I mean again, like to just do some like
early week strategy stuff. One of the things I know that we
consider as we talked about, like the Acres plan, some of
these running back plays is that one of the team has multiple
games, you got to factor in their winning games, right?
So they're going to be in some plus scripts and certainly over
enough games three or four games in at the Superbowl.
That's when you probably want your quarterback, you're
probably projecting your quarterback to go all the way to
the Super Bowl. But as far as a team that maybe
makes a run from the Wildcard Weekend to the conference title
which obviously with only one There's going to be team, you
know, a team on each side that does that minimum and then if
the one seeds were to lose in the divisional round, you could
have even a third team or a fourth team that make that run
and play three games but not possible.
Those teams are winning two games.
You probably want your running back to come from those
situations because they're going to compile some stats and plus
game script and some certainty. And then the situations where a
team loses and only plays one game.
Obviously, they probably throwing in a come-from-behind
like I was talking about the Taylor example and then saying
from the Jays game yesterday, like that's the kind of stat
line, even a good running back. In half and the game where his
team ends up behind has to throw a bunch, then you might want the
receivers in those scenarios. So really thinking through the
way, the games are going to be played and everything.
If you're picking a team to lose in the first round, you probably
going to be more likely to be on the pass catchers on the
receivers. But yeah, a lot of these running
back tight end decisions broadly because were just talking about
the Evans situation. What was another one?
You're talking about a couple other ones but there's receivers
in there. Oh you're trying Michelle austyn
Zeke I think yeah there's receivers there yet by the
Cardinals are talking about Cristian Kirk could Wind up
being a play for the Cardinals. If they play one game and they
lose and Connor and hurts. Don't have a big game.
Cristian Kirk could wind up being the guy or hell.
Even AJ Green. I don't know.
I didn't know the it was obvious.
Probably this one I'm gonna cover for.
He's always lurking. Yeah, oh god.
Well, I was gonna say there's a question.
John was asking if there's any way to fade Adams, and I think
that's kind of an interesting Way To Think through.
Like, you know, this point about fading fading certain teams and
thinking through Through the bracket as you do.
Like, if you're going to fade atoms, they have to play one
game, right? Like, and maybe you could go
Lazard or something like that, or maybe you could go Aaron
Jones or a due diligence, but AJ Dylan's pretty tough.
Because our they are, they is a to Dillon, getting there in a
one-game and out scenario for the Packers.
So I think I'd rather like play Lazard and just hope he gets a
couple touchdowns in a loss, but then you need to play and
ideally you're playing like maybe a bit of a contrarian.
Icon on the bracket in general. So like if you were going to
play the Cardinals to go to the conference Championship game,
for example, then maybe you would pair that with an atom's
fade, because the Cardinals would most likely be going
through Green Bay. So, I think you'd want to think
through something like that. I think, if I was fading Adams,
I would play it as a softer, hard fate.
I mean, I think that both the Packers and Titans are kind of
interesting to consider from a faith perspective, because it
could also play only one game. Right?
That's true. Yeah, the And certainly could
the Packers, we know don't want a ton of plays.
And so let's say like the the Niners beat the Cowboys and go
on to put the Packers as a 60 which would happen if the Bucks.
Also, beat the Eagles, you can see a few basically be playing a
Niners Packers game, where the Niners control the game, they
run the ball, they go in and they just absolutely crush.
The packages. Have a horrible offensive game.
Basically. I mean that's that's the way.
Ya see Adam's not getting there. Yeah, which is, yeah, which is
kind of what I'm saying, although you're just it's a more
direct version but you. Want to play them to play one
game and then you need to figure out who's going to beat them.
Yeah, it's what makes it interesting for Cooper cups of
oil because you could get two games at a cup and then one or
two out of atoms because they could meet down the road and
those are going to be the two receivers that.
I know everyone will be talking about.
It's obviously harder to get away from Cup in my opinion,
because there were so fewer options to, like, confidently,
go to Aaron Jones. We can Ban case for the passing
game, usage HL. And if you think the Packers
extend all the way to the NFC championship, Pionship game is
fine for the Rams though. Like just the way they've used
their players over the last month really like Odell Beckham
has scored a couple touchdowns but even those came inside the
10 just on my fade routes he hasn't really been an explosive
option for them. They've only been filtering
through cup and now the running back situation without Michelle
has become a muddled backfilled that we can't.
We honestly just can't pick either and so really it's hard
for me to get off cup. Yeah, it's really hard to get
off because I think he's gonna be like 90 percent under more.
Yeah, it's wild. You would have to make the one
game on. And even then like yeah, you
know, one thing about 100 yards, like and when I look at these
one game options, even someone that Clays Chase Claypool comes
to mind, you know, heat for 5 /. 5 games in a row, his route
participation increased so much though he was on the field for
96% of the team's dropboxes, past game and a season-high 91%
of snaps and now he goes into the playoffs with this Elite
usage. But even so like, you know, he
has to if I use him in one game elimination he has to respond
like a cup of cup would and so that's why I It's just, you
know, even in these teams were fading or thinking about getting
on for one game samples. It's still just really hard
looking for that ceiling option here.
The biggest cock to cup for me as Michael Thomas in 2019 when
he broke them. Receptions reckon was incredible
and they went in and they did get upset in the first round by
the Vikings and Michael Thomas 1747.
See the difference is that was a scenario where you had Michael
Thomas and a very clear running back and Alvin Kamara to Target
and Camara had a rushing TD, I think he was the right play
ultimately over time. But does this Rams team have?
I mean, they like, they don't have a clue.
I don't have anybody. Yeah, so it's I mean, yeah.
If this was like four weeks from now maybe it'd be Acres, but I
do a kers is very, very tough to.
I mean, I'm not even saying you couldn't play Acres, but the
percentage of the field on acres is going to be, like, 1% or
maybe I was, like, sort of excited to play him, but then,
even just watching him this week, like you, it's not.
I don't think for net was played last year in this tournament so
that you know the to give you an idea like we're oh Joe was like
fifteen percent and for now it was like zero percent.
We will still we were still very much like on the fence about who
would be the lead running back. A lot of people thought it would
be for net, given the usage over the last month of the season but
remember that's one wrong Jones was also injured.
So we weren't sure what's going to happen when he was coming
back for the playoffs. Right now, we're already
certain, we know it's going to be for net if you note.
Oh yeah I was making the compa to the ram situation just then
that like I don't People are going to feel comfortable,
projecting it to be cam Akers and you know, in a run even if
he even though like we saw last year that's it could certainly
happen. And even if we project Acres,
how much will slowly Michelle be used?
And more importantly, if it's all Lakers, how effective will
it be searching? The effectiveness is what I was
even watching him. It's amazing that he made it
back to watching them like even if he plays a lot I don't see a
lot of scenarios where he winds up, putting up the production.
So that's why I challenged keep going back to Henry to.
It's like does his Henry like 21 carries for 43 yards and then we
get the hell out of there. Like I'm just worried.
So Pat just as a thought experiment for people, if they
are thinking about, let's say, say they play a Rams hard fade
and let's say cup goes for 25 in a loss.
What are the things you need to survive that, as far as cup
appearing in the optimal, you'd probably need to hit on, you
know, another shootout that people didn't play like, you'd
need to get on like a Claypool or something, if he goes off
because he's going to be like, you know, 1% 2% own because
people are the fading, the Steelers, they're playing Nagi.
And then, if any there's any wider super love, it'll probably
go to Deonte. So if you found something like
that, you know, you You could get there but more likely, you
probably need to. Like if you're let's say you
faded cup, you did it because you're betting on the Cardinals
to advance. So maybe you have Kyler
quarterback and then if the Cardinals go to the Super Bowl
with Kyler quarterback, I think that's the more likely.
But I mean, it does make it hard to fake up because, you know,
maybe there's a Kyler team who has Cup right, you know, that
you're competing against once you get to the Super Bowl.
So you kind of need I think up to to do like the Michael Thomas
74 Andy if you're fading. Yeah and that's why I just think
those thought experiments are good because then you like if
you just can't Envision a world where he's going for less than
7470 like you obviously can't fade them and then otherwise you
need to be really purposeful with where am I making up those
points? Because a 25 spot from cup is
very likely to be in the optimal.
Which typically, right, I think I can't Envision a world where
you go 7470 like it. Hey, who's there going to throw
more and in that scenario? I mean go look at his game log.
These last couple of weeks, he's only had seven targets but it
did better than that in both games.
But like, all season double-digit targets every
single week he has not had fewer than 90 yards since week for.
That's the only game all year that you had fewer than 90
yards. I mean it right.
And if they win, I mean, you're just drawing dead at that point
because now they're everyone's getting two games at a cop and
you're getting, you know, two games out of whatever you try to
do. You know, whether it's obj or
and, and today with Point, there's no pivots what are we
supposed to do. If we don't take them.
Yeah, this is a really good question.
From John here. What's the Merit to getting
unique versus playing? The best plays in this contest.
This format is such a merge of gametypes know and this is, you
know, hinting at you don't need to Galaxy brain, a lot of spots
in this contest, the ways to get unique are fairly easy, but I
think it's still kind of a mind. Fuck.
As far as how unique do you have to get?
Well, I wouldn't say you necessarily need the teams going
to the Super Bowl but then again, maybe you do like you
want. Your teams are going to the
Super Bowl to get those double points and so, like even the
best plays maybe that doesn't lead us to the Super Bowl team.
So that's kind of really what we're all figuring out here is
not only do we project but then how do we get the most points
every single round? Yeah I think you don't want to
be taking guys like like don't select Kolb easily you know like
he'll be zero percent owns you know, like don't don't go that
far down the depth charts you know, even though he's obviously
a starter for them but you know I think if you think about like
a Marty Cooper, Amari Cooper is going to be very low and he'll
be single digits because you're going to have, you know, lots of
ownership. Go to seek and Schultz and CD
will catch most of the wide receiver ownership, I think.
You could you could say like see eh yeah see it's going to be
super low and because there's three guys that are all going to
be popular ahead of him. So there's lots of situations
like that I think we're, you know, like if you have the guts
to play Julio Jones, which is probably not a great play, but
like you wanted to do that in a Titans Lou scenario, you know,
and who he was in the optimal if we look at last week's game, but
something like that, you know, it's starting a guy who's a
starting wide receiver and and maybe the secondary the
secondary receiving, On his team potentially could could be very
low and a really good player from last year to discuss on
this is Juju because he was very low.
And and he wound up being Pittsburgh's highest scoring
player in one and done situation.
Was he in the winter? I mean he had to have been in
the winning line up right. Like so I guess my question is
like if you get to like a 5% or less play theres only 7000 - you
know lineups here. Does if that play hits does is
that required to win the tournament Patty of the winning
line from last year I'm really, I think it's you trying to pull
it up. I wasn't no, I don't have it.
Play pool was a, I think he was like 9 to 11 percent and he had
50 yards and two touchdowns in the first game and that
elimination game. So I've been trying to see if
Claypool was in 2002. Yeah.
And I also think you know to path went like the the way I
would think about the two ways that you can get unique in.
Not like to Galaxy brain weighs. Like you said, these offenses,
Has that have three or four guys that are all getting around a
similar market share in one's not pulling ahead where the
field Fields confident or playing the underdog studs.
We mentioned the Josh Jacobs, Pat mentioned, Chase Claypool.
If you want to throw in Dallas ghadir like these guys, that
could have an alpha game, that's a good one and there's two ways
like you can hit it on two levels, right?
Like you can hit the Dallas ghadir Alpha game in a loss and
you could also get two really good games out of him in a win
to so you don't have to be like Really specific on how the
Eagles do. Like if you do get one of those
as the alphago, I think with the bottom Smith, like he's gonna be
5% on and yeah you know because I think because people will
funnel The Goddard when they don't fit right.
I think the biggest thing with like the Jupiter trying to make
in, in a lot of these discussions that we're having is
thinking through, the guy has to be the bit that the
highest-ranked player on his team as well like that other
element were like because you can only have one it comes down
to like the like Deco product label clip a lot of big game in
that one, I think Beyonce had doubled.
Agents as well. Everyone was playing Deonte, but
Juju on up scoring the most as I recall out of the three, but
they all were good, but the reality is like, you're
comparing to the other rosters that are built in this contest.
And so by having Juju over clicked, like you could
basically have the same roster everywhere else, but you gain
even if you only get like two points that might end up being
what what propels you to that one extra spot and gives you the
win. So like, I don't know.
I'm trying to think through this difference of like in a scenario
where you still had a good play a higher.
I mean, like, I know last year, we are really excited.
We played a lot of AJ, Brown jarrick Henry came in Monster,
Brown beat him by like only a few points.
But just the fact that now, we were ahead of all of the Derrick
Henry lineups, where we had Brown everywhere, even if we are
the same everywhere else, if we get to the final, you have to
have everything, right? When you get to the front, you
have to have the QB that's in the Super Bowl and has the
bigger. It's that line the Super Bowl
because get 2x quarterback is just one of those positions
where it's really hard. I think to fill your quarterback
spot from a team that doesn't Make the Super Bowl because of
the 2X and the fact that they're going to get points in that
scenario. But yeah, I ultimately like
those really small amounts were guy out scores, the rest of his
teammates in a loss and there's going to be six teams that lose
this weekend and the first weekend, right?
A lot of this is going to be determined in this first
weekend. Just like, did you have the
highest score on these one-and-done teams?
Because that's what you're going to need in order to in Dunn's?
I remember last year, one was Baltimore, right?
Because they upset Tennessee. So Say you had AJ brown or a
Tennessee, some kind of Derrick Henry fade, who was mega mega
chalk and then then you need to get the Baltimore player right?
And there's three guys, Marquis Brown JK diamonds and Mark
Andrews were all kind of like in that second game at the bills.
They're just like all fighting it out.
So this team who comment is super super interesting and for
anyone who's on audio, it's Juju he just pulled up, Juju was that
10.2%. He was on the perfect roster,
but clay, pull it 13.9% was on the Inning roster.
One of the things I was trying to think through there, when I
brought the brown, Henry thing was, if you get brown to just
score over Henry but Henry 70% own, the play you're making is
not playing Henry. So now you've moved ahead of all
the Henry plays in that scenario or like even like that.
I think that the Beasley points a good example this year because
Diggs, is it going to be particularly High?
We don't know if Singletary will be, you're not gaining as much
by hitting Juju correct in that scenario.
And ultimately Claypool ended up winning because there wasn't
like a Fade necessary. I mean Deonte was the clear fade
but Claypool got outscored by Juju but was still in the
winning roster because we're talking about percentages of 10%
13%. They're only a couple hundred
lineups, ultimately, for this whole contest, which there's
like, you know, 7,000 or whatever, you see what I'm
saying. Like if you're not if you're if
you're not hitting on a 5% who's out scores, his teammate by
maybe just a couple of points in conjunction with a teammate that
teammate being like a 70% play, then you're not actually
utilizing the same game because if his teammates only 13%, Never
it can kind of be either of them because you have to get all the
other pieces, right? Still.
Yeah. And this is a good point to and
this kind of gets into conversations, we have with DFS,
there is an actual risk like when you're playing DFS when
we're talking about being contrary and you're actually not
really worried about being duplicated because with 9 roster
spots, it's just very unlikely but there are going to be dupes
on the most popular lineups in this contest.
And you don't want to be duplicated, that's going to be
one of the things we're going to start to get at this week
tomorrow with Davis early ownership projections.
Day with our buddies, Hassan, revealing the Boomer opto and I
don't know off the top of my head, I might be pulling this
out of my ass but I want to say there was a lineup That was
like, rock, like roster 250 sometimes last year I'm not sure
yet you said nine spots. But like remember in DFS even we
can go down to 3K guys, ain't no one's you playing Byron Pringle.
Exactly and the narrow pool, actually we're talking about
like, what 45 players really were thinking about and that's
it. So yeah, of course we're
probably going to do one another in.
Yeah. So that and then the
conversation it's the same with DFS, right?
It's how many you don't want to be over leverage, right?
Like you don't want to go. I'm taking you know, Aaron Jones
over Adams and then I'm taking Acres over, you know, cuff and
that like you don't have to go down the board.
But it's now finding that sweet spot of you don't want to eat
every one of those chops. You do.
Need to make some leverage questions.
It's just how far do you go? Yeah, because then it gets the
point. Where even if you win, you're
splitting it. It's like her hanging on for
something so yeah. Forget, you know, we should, I
bet fantasy Mojo, has that and by the way, shout out to Fantasy
Mojo. Check out his site for the past
ownership, projections or ownership results for this
contest. He's got, I should also mention,
he has a really cool new thing. He has an Optimizer out for this
year for the playoff contest with projection.
So you can run different scenarios and and see it so
definitely check out fantasy Mojo.com for his Optimizer.
If you're looking to get into the Weeds on that, if PC slowly
getting all growns up. That's right.
Um what do you think? Should we say we kind of you
know we got to pace ourselves this week.
We are doing five shows. Why don't we?
I don't like I know you invited me on to start the week but I
also I did want to go like heavy I've done a lot of research in
the matchups already. Just because you know, we kind
of yeah what the Seas were going to happen.
But overall I also didn't want to like ruin the show because I
know you have so many more guests.
It's so much more time to feel that's probably going to talk
about the same thing. So yeah, we could very awesome.
That's absurd. We could.
Yeah, please. This is what we want back
honestly. If you would like like, it
doesn't matter to me at all. No.
I was going to transition us into building a lineup, so maybe
that's the perfect vehicle for firing off.
Some of those takes, I think we should take a bit day.
We'll go get my game real quick, give us a call.
That's right. Let's go ahead and go to line
up. I'll share some thoughts as we
move along there. Why don't why don't you kick
this off with? Maybe kind of a big, you know,
macro or say micro take that. That is informing one of your
decisions here. Yeah I don't want to get too
considering early right now. It's only Monday but right now I
already mentioned claypole for the usage reasons.
I cited, I do I think that he's a good start or I can still kind
of like Mouse Sanders quiet. Wow, sneakily, get two games out
of him. More importantly, I think is
going to be heavily involved. Regardless, even if you get a
one score game scripts, the fact they were leaning on him heavily
even in the game that Jordan Howell was available for For you
got injured. I'm actually pretty confident in
him. So those are my kind of too
early contrarian plays right now.
I will just keep it easy though. And start with hey guys, real
quick on Mi Anders, what's the deal with this broken hand?
Like what it sounds like you think he's going to be back
fully healthy? We don't know just yet.
Okay, just like for Nets. They have said some broad
messages that he's going to return.
I think you'll be good to go, and if he's good to go, that's
the best part about this injury, like Elijah Mitchell.
It was like upper body it. It's like a hand and so like
once he gets in there, everyone's worried about like
re-injury. This is not Derrick Henry foot
surgery, it's your hand. I don't care.
And so you know, the use of the issues was good regardless
before he got injured and so that's why I jumped to him in
this spot again. Like I said the Bucks defense,
the rush defense has been actually atrocious over the last
month in particular and just since in the second half of the
Season since week nine. So that's why I kind of sneakily
like him quite a bit. And I mean, as long as he scores
enough to be, not a fade situation for the Eagles, right?
You know, one of the issues. Obviously, with the Eagles is
how much hurts can eat up but hurts us and going to probably
be the likely QB unless the Eagles make a run.
I mean I guess there's probably scenarios with to make a run to
the NFC Championship or hurts. Could be the optimal especially
like if it was only three if it was say a Green Bay, Tennessee,
Super Bowl, and she only getting three games from the other,
there's no team that plays four games this year, it could be
hurts, but in all likelihood, the Eagles play two games, it
could be, you know, it could be a saint.
I mean, I think that's actually really interesting.
All right, Dale. Start us off.
I'm going to go, Mike Evans. I like qualities.
If someone wanted Rock. I just think it's such a awesome
spot. That like you said, I was
shocked. You said he'd go overlooked.
I thought everyone would catch on.
But like right now Mike Evans only had an 18.7% targets here
yesterday but played the fewest snaps.
He's played in a full game all year and was Tampa's only
receiver with India mountains. It ends on targets Evans.
Hasn't reached a 28 percent Target chair in any game.
All year, but that's because he's been playing with Chris
Godwin and Rob Gronkowski crisscross when Antonio Brown
Rob Gronkowski. Now, imagine a life where Evans
going to play every single snap. And then also get all these
targets without God, when the Antonio Brown moving forward.
So I think Evans is just like an awesome ceiling play compared to
God, but compared to grow. So, where are you at?
On where the ownership comes in, on the three of those guys?
Because that's, that's going to be?
I think one of the key things to get, right?
Don't we discussed it a lot brother.
My issue is that just like last year and you mentioning and Main
Event even filling up by. I think John or someone had
mentioned the chat like Thursday morning Friday morning.
It was filled by these things, get popular generally every
single year. Also why I like main event was
so much more popular this year and I've seen so many people
already touting shows for the playoff challenge.
I genuinely think it's going to get Jay on this year.
I think we're looking at like a Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday
evening. Getting filled just because
there's so much content now around this one, playoff format
that everyone loves so much. That's so much, it's so much
more different than best ball, which is easily accessible, so
much more different than DFS which people are tired of
because it's too sharp this year.
And so, yeah, I just think everyone.
Like, I really think it's gonna be the most popular contest so I
think ownership is going to shift like drastically in the
next 48 hours. Next 72 hours and like the more
people talk about the same place over and over again, that's
what's ultimately going to get steamed.
That's why I kind of think of them.
The week, we may be looking at higher, Mike Evans and hired
Kevin Singletary, but right now it's just not what we are
projecting on Monday. At least.
Those are two, I think my favorite plays gotcha.
All right, Gretch. Who do you want to put in here?
Let's just do cup. Don't sound so excited.
Pat Well, given that he might not be the most popular play on
his team. As I thought he probably still
would be, he's 57 percent on last year, but I'm gonna go
Stefon Diggs. If we're thinking maybe he ends
up in the high 20s. Okay.
Let's Do It. Um, what do we think that should
I just give us a try. Give us a Mahomes line up here.
Yeah, works for me. Yeah, I'll go my homes.
I'm not back to degel. We're already running out of
running backs. A do we have a link early on
Deebo Samuel or George Kettle? Like projection was.
I bet it to be pretty even I think, I think it's going to be
lean Debo. Just given the recent results.
But, yeah. And you know, it'll certainly
allows you to do other stuff. Yeah, you don't really need the
tight end. Yeah.
The sure, what is your lie like? What are you?
Who would you rather play in a vacuum?
I think Kettle, interesting. But it's it's all good though.
Titan premium. I push people though, I mean,
and I saw a comment about Elijah Mitchell being this year's
Acres. I think he's a reasonable bet
to, and Elijah might get a little bit of of Interest.
It may be Depot comes in a little low.
How about this year's moster You know.
Yeah, there you go. Well then I can't pick between
then I'm going to let someone else do it.
I'll just go should be good. We talked about the Davonte I
miss Cooper cup scenario. Should we go Davante Adams?
I think I was I was going to take him.
I think if you're taking my home's, you're probably not
playing for a four-week quarterback on the other side.
You probably. I mean, most likely in Mahomes
is the guy. When yeah, Green Bay a Green Bay
Super Bowl, I'll take you know what?
I'll let some I'll let you make the decision, then Gretchen I'll
go mix it. Nixon.
Okay, nice. Nice.
Yeah. I'll talk about him.
So I'm having tons of fun. Take a cup and Adams obviously
have the best place so far. My guys are gonna score more
than all of your pigs. Yeah, okay.
Casey from a home. So, I think it makes a lot of
sense to take Green Bay to the Super Bowl.
It's like probably the most likely scenario where my home's
is the right QB. And so Adams is probably a
locking that that outcome Alright, so now, to make a
decision about Dallas is our decision.
Yeah, I'm gonna go Dallas D. Wow, here we go, here we go.
Um, all right. Yeah, because I was even tempted
to just throw Zeke into this. Just I mean it because big
popular as it can. An option, right?
I don't like no one wants to play him for Town.
Who's the popular option on Dallas?
Then, who's the? Who's the chalk option?
I think you already mentioned, I think it's CD lamb or Dalton
Schultz yeah, I think those guys, I think the three of them
come in pretty even Yeah, I could see that I am going to do
the Eli Mitchell. We lost a visual.
Oh oops. Here we go.
Let's get Eli Mitchell back. So this is one of the items we
were dancing around crane. Is that you know now strategy
comes in where how many people are going to play this player
against like their defense. Right.
Right? Yeah and Elijah majeste an
analogy for any other player versus the defense.
They would probably rather choose the team.
They're fading as opposed to having a player go up against
their defense but I think it's warranted right here.
One thing we do have already I'll just note as we have one
player from every wild card game.
One winner, basically from every I mean, they don't all have to
be winners but we have we have at least one skill player and
then also Mahomes from every wild card game.
So we don't have anything that we like, feel like we need to
make sure we're not fading, both sides of a game.
Gotcha. All right to flex is tight end
and placekicker. Who are we back over to?
I think degel you just took. Yeah yeah back today go.
I'm not making the jarrick Henry edge of brown decision for us
all that. What do y'all do that then?
Do you want to do you want to think that?
I mean I would love to look at how far you have to scroll down,
you have to scroll past Hunter Renfro, this running back.
All right. And like that against against
Mahomes because you're playing Week, 1 is a shootout which is
great for the Mahomes pick. So I think something that's
interesting here is we have not taken a tight end and we have
Mahomes in. So we have Kelsey playing for
games, we're going to need a tight end who's playing multiple
game. We also you know, we played
Evans over Gronk, we did some of these other things that we're
going to need a tight end, who is capable of playing multiple
games to compete? yeah, that's I mean it's him or
Him. That's what I was thinking.
That's where I was going. It's got to be hurts because we
took out of stock, so we're better off.
If it were its advances, instead of come in a sense, we and we
have the Niners winning. And so they're going to play the
Packers. And so now you can get the
Cardinals in 23 games without going through the Packers who
were also kind of seeing in the Super Bowl.
It's, It's gotta be, it's Gotta Be Earth.
Yeah. I already know what's going to
happen to we're going to spend so much time.
Building lineups this week and this is going to end up being
our best lineup. That's how it always goes and
then it's Carlson, right? It was just lost angle desserts.
Got on there. He said, he's out day, goes out
Carlson. So we're yeah.
Full fade on New England and Philly or think will be two of
the most popular. Yeah.
What do you?
So? Yeah, because people would go
like Damien Harris or full Phaeton, New England mostly you
could do one of their kickers. I mean, the fact that we played
like Evans for example, might mean that Philly actually pushes
Tampa, a little and the fact we played Mixon means that they may
be run all over. You know the Raiders just don't
show up. You could maybe make a case for
the Eagles kicker. I don't know about Patriots with
digs and yeah maybe that's a maybe I think Patriots defense
might get a little bit of love. Yeah.
And I just play for you getting passing attempts against them.
Probably It's Selva choke in the Wi-Fi with all that, all, 22
film. Yeah, he just woke up, so I'm
sure we started using something. He's watching old randomizer
streams. You would not believe by the way
how often that happens. I know Silva is a big fan, I get
it. Um well Daigle we appreciate you
coming on and kicking off, five straight days of FPC.
Playoff Challenge programming here on shift chasing.
What did we do for our last Cardinal stick?
That's when the computer froze, it is accurate records and any
time you play chop, Daniel Carson, you gotta, you gotta do
it. We already made our big, you
know, Dallas defense as well as pointed out in the chat.
Pretty contrarian pick their someone take a screenshot of
this and then you take a screenshot of your lineup,
Friday for your last stream because I guarantee you're going
to Galaxy brain yourself into the, craziest shit at the end of
this. Uh, yeah, I have it.
We're going to build a lineup at the end of each show this week
and I will do this. I'll do this SC Daigle and we
will you trying to Pieces each line.
Is we aggressively going to get worse thinking.
It gets bad mix receivers in that.
We pull it back up. Yeah, we played.
No, yeah. All Flex receivers very it's a
ship chasing team. We forgot about tighten and
tighten premium format, right? I'm glad I could just simply.
Yes. Daigle idiot.
Any other plugs for for you here.
What are you up to this week? Yeah.
It's the wild card. You know, where to follow me, if
not, then you'll figure it out eventually.
Also, I'll be doing playoff, only rankings at ABC, Sports
edge.com. I guess, right now I'm going for
Tuesday night, Wednesday, morning, release, and now have
them updated and its rankings according to the entire
postseason. So basically, which teams I
think we'll go to the Super Bowl and then which players I think
are like contrarian but intelligent contrarian ranked
higher than some of the perhaps like play the best.
This guy. So you can look for that at the
site. Awesome.
Yes, Gretch, crane. Anything else here before?
I mean, we'll be back in less than 24 hours because that's
what that's what we're doing this week.
That's my will have, the will have to walk through out on
Friday for the oh nice going through?
Yeah. That's gonna do four shows
before the walkthrough and then try to figure it all out on
Friday. Yeah, it's gonna be a busy week
and that's right. Yeah.
So did. So to recap tomorrow at 4:00
will have Davis Matic on Wednesday 9:15 Hassan and Blair
Boomer, opto show Thursday, very excited to welcome Sean.
Siegel back to the program 9:15 p.m.
Eastern and then we will wrap things up on Friday, 9:15 p.m.
Eastern. We are running back are drunk
build show with Leone and Dink. Chaos will ensue will be needing
to get our lineups in. But we'll also be having a very
good time. Drinking always a tightrope, to
who to walk out of Friday, evening.
We will be here all week. I'm Pete overs that will see you
guys tomorrow.