1 00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:04,280 No mic show up today out on a family experience. 2 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:06,880 It is going to be Davis Matic, Pat Karine, Jacob Sanderson with 3 00:00:06,880 --> 00:00:08,960 you. No one wants elite tight ends 4 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:11,080 anymore. Some are saying the best ball 5 00:00:11,080 --> 00:00:13,960 cabal is going a bit too far. We're going to get to the 6 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 quarterbacks being risers. We're all trying to find the guy 7 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:20,960 who's doing this as Pat Karine comes to us live in a hot dog 8 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:25,000 suit. It is the July 8th edition of 9 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:29,320 ADP Chasing. ADP chasing is for When you 10 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:31,720 watch ship chasing, you go. These guys are just football 11 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:32,240 guys. I. 12 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:35,040 Have my 4% exposure blanket to stay more actually. 13 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:37,400 Back in if it's Ashanek. It's tear into our crystal ball. 14 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:40,280 close your eyes. You know all your entries are 15 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:41,200 going to. Lose anyway. 16 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:43,440 Yeah, that's fair. You're not going to told me all 17 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:44,200 this when? I was here. 18 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:46,920 It's anti cabal. It's anti the best ball thought 19 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:49,080 leader. I'm obviously lying to some 20 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:51,720 degree because like, I have a lot of both of these guys. 21 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:55,240 It's the most disgusting thing you can make, but man. 22 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:02,200 All right, there we go folks. We are live. 23 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:06,000 Crane, Jacob. I'm good crabbing coffee last 24 00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:09,960 minute. It's it's so funny without Mr. 25 00:01:09,960 --> 00:01:12,640 Schop to be the referee, it's going to be tough. 26 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:13,760 I'm not going to lie to you guys. 27 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:17,840 I'm expecting, I'm expecting last call to probably take place 28 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:22,280 at 10:55 central time as I am like ending the stream to go do 29 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:24,360 the swole cast it. It's going to be there's no 30 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:26,880 referee. And I think we are going to get 31 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:30,520 into some some pretty good arguments today. 32 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:33,760 I mean, I think that we should just start here. 33 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:37,440 Crane, how do you feel about ruining back stacking 34 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:40,680 quarterbacks for everyone? Like when you see Matt Stafford 35 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:47,280 go naked unstacked to like pick 144 in one of your rooms, just 36 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:48,560 kind of what's your what's your response? 37 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:51,120 Do you feel proud? Are you happy with what you've 38 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:55,280 done or, or are you like should have kept it to ourselves? 39 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:58,440 Davis I have 3 quarterbacks in those situations and the 40 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:00,760 quarterback tab is turned off, so I didn't even notice. 41 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:04,800 But that is, it's a real shame. Have you have you rewatched 42 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,639 Oppenheimer recently? What have I done? 43 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:09,560 We we have. We have. 44 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:14,480 You have become that. You know what I'm doing? 45 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:16,480 I've seen Peaky Blinders, does that count? 46 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:20,200 It yeah, I mean, it's basically the same thing I'm actually 47 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:22,520 doing. I'm actually doing a a stream 48 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:26,880 with Karen later and I was going to put him as Doc Brown next to 49 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:30,640 a time machine, but I think now I might do him as Oppenheimer. 50 00:02:30,640 --> 00:02:32,760 I might make, I might make Karen's face. 51 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:35,040 Killian Murphy like realizing that. 52 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:37,480 He I think you could make. The entire universe. 53 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:41,520 Seeing Jacob with his hair slicked back, I, I'm, I now want 54 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:45,080 you to go the other way and and get the the full puff and make 55 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:48,680 him Einstein. This is this isn't even slick. 56 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:51,400 This is just I my typical. Routine. 57 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:55,400 It's pushed back. It's just really wet. 58 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:59,680 That's, that's just all it is. I'm I'm about 4 minutes out of 59 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:02,920 the shower with the comb. You will see it like steadily 60 00:03:02,920 --> 00:03:07,480 dry over time. My my typical routine on these 61 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:09,280 shows. For those who don't know Pat and 62 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:11,560 I are you back in California? Are you still in? 63 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:12,160 New York? Not yet. 64 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,720 Our normally our typical routine would be the Pat and I are doing 65 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:20,320 these at 7:00 AM. And so that means usually I'm 66 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:23,400 I'm showering post show. But I was like, Shope's not 67 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:25,440 here. This is going to be a long one. 68 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:28,360 I've got a shower pre show so I can get to work at a reasonable 69 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:30,040 hour. And so yeah, you guys are seeing 70 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:33,160 me as a blonde member of the mob today. 71 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:37,280 I might not, I might just be real quiet and and we're going 72 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:39,560 to hit the under on this because I I love that both you guys have 73 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:43,520 like like Jacob changed his morning because it's going to go 74 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:44,600 long. It would be funny if this is 75 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:47,280 like a nice tight 55 minute show. 76 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:53,080 Yeah, I doubt that. You do really Jacob on ADP 77 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:57,120 chasing whenever you do this with your hair, you do look like 78 00:03:57,120 --> 00:03:59,720 one of the Icelandic bad guys from D2. 79 00:03:59,960 --> 00:04:02,960 The mighty pucks is is kind of gently to do a little bit of of 80 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:05,920 puck chasing. I mean a truly, truly phenomenal 81 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:09,120 film. But that is, that is exactly the 82 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:12,520 vibe, the vibe you get. That's fair, non derogatory. 83 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:15,480 All right, let's actually go ahead. 84 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,120 Let's go ahead and get to the first slide because this is 85 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:22,680 something that I have been mulling over in my mind. 86 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:26,440 And I actually think at their current cost, the Pittsburgh 87 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:31,640 Steelers are one of the teams that our assumptions could be 88 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:36,600 proven most incorrect about because what the market has done 89 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:38,560 with Aaron Rodgers being introduced to this team, as 90 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:40,600 they'd say, well, we'd like to draft a little bit of Aaron 91 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:44,040 Rodgers, not too much, but we we feel more confident in him 92 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:47,600 starting 17 games than we do Sam Darnold. 93 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:53,040 We feel very confident that Dekalin Zacharias Metcalf is 94 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:55,520 going to be receiving a 32% target share. 95 00:04:55,800 --> 00:05:00,000 We also feel very confident that it is still Arthur Smith calling 96 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:05,240 the plays and not Aaron Rodgers, right, which I think could be an 97 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:08,120 incorrect assumption from the market. 98 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:12,040 The market is assuming that Jonnu Smith is clearly ahead of 99 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:13,960 Pat Fryer Muth. Are they? 100 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:17,440 Assuming that or is it just mechanically take a really long 101 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:19,080 time for players to fall on underdog? 102 00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:20,920 No, because it's been. It's been. 103 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:24,360 Also we're assuming that but it's not like he's way ahead. 104 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:26,960 It's but we have a lean to Janu in the rank. 105 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:30,240 Yeah, I haven't had, but I have them like less than a round 106 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:35,120 apart. Yeah, yeah, ETR has firemooth 107 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:38,440 like almost like undraftable. They have firemooth in the two 108 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:40,920 hundreds. I, I, I think I might have 109 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:43,080 firemooth actually unranked in my stuff. 110 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:45,760 Like actually in my top 240 players. 111 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:49,320 I, I don't know if I even have firemooth in them. 112 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:53,680 I have Jonnu lower than ADP as well. 113 00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:59,480 Warren has seen a slight. I believe Warren is now going 114 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:03,880 like around and around after Jordan Mason. 115 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:07,880 Caleb Johnson weirdly has actually gone up a smidge. 116 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:11,560 Like I've noticed Caleb like it's more often that the draft 117 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:14,480 or like after like Godwin goes. I've noticed that like, oh, 118 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:19,680 sometimes the the the guy who's drafting at 68 will just take 119 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:22,440 Caleb Johnson instead of David Montgomery or whatever for his 120 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,360 running back too, which I think is fine. 121 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:29,200 And I will toss this to you, Jacob, which is The Jets 122 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:31,480 actually were a positive PROE team. 123 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:36,880 I think I want to say Rodgers got the 550 attempts. 124 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:42,000 Let me actually. He had 584. 500 Let's let's do a 125 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:45,200 little Fact Check. Aaron Rodgers, 584 pass 126 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:49,760 attempts, 28197 yards, 28 passing touchdowns, 11 picks. 127 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:52,920 I mean obviously one point. I have no idea how I knew that 128 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:55,280 exactly. Though Jake Jacob just nailed 129 00:06:55,280 --> 00:06:57,120 that. That's crazy. 130 00:06:57,480 --> 00:06:58,920 That is that's, that's pretty good. 131 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:02,400 That's I'm, I'm very impressed. Nothing is going to impress me 132 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:07,200 more than random little bits of NFL minutia like that. 133 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:11,640 But the thing about The Jets is the the assumption would be, Oh 134 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:13,400 well, The Jets were terrible, right? 135 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:15,200 So, yeah, so no wonder they threw all the time. 136 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:18,760 Well, that doesn't explain being a positive PROE team, right? 137 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:20,840 Because if you're if the scoreline. 138 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:23,800 Dictates, yeah, but who cares? He's with Arthur Smith now. 139 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:25,000 It's. Different. 140 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:27,920 Well, that's what I'm saying. I'm saying, Karain, that opinion 141 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:31,000 could very easily be wrong. That part of this whole 142 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:34,680 negotiation, part of why Rogers didn't sign until June 25th or 143 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:37,920 whatever, was like Rodgers being like, I'm taking the clock down 144 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:40,320 to one. You're letting me do as many RP 145 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:44,120 OS as I want. I want to pad my career passing 146 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:47,360 touchdown numbers. We're we're on the. 147 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:50,040 That I could buy. I I think the way I look at it 148 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:54,360 is so apparently these two have been sitting down talking ball, 149 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:57,520 you know, they're it's like, Oh yeah, it's a good play call 150 00:07:57,520 --> 00:08:00,160 there. Good job right there. 151 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:04,960 They all kind of just sort of stoic, half stoically, you know, 152 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:10,360 grumpily watching film together. And there's going to be the 153 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:14,720 question of who ultimately has called the play, right? 154 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:18,640 The majority of the time, I expect that to be Arthur Smith, 155 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:21,560 'cause that's how the NFL works. Well, that's just how that's how 156 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:24,880 that's how it worked with Rodgers, wherever he was. 157 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:26,760 It that's how yeah, but he. Was on the same. 158 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:28,480 Page. He was on the same page. 159 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:32,880 Philosophically, Slash had installed that OC, not. 160 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:37,039 Always, not always. Notably, Matt Lafleur, who was 161 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:40,840 the one he won two MVPS with, was, was one of the few that 162 00:08:40,919 --> 00:08:43,919 came in and was like, no, actually, you know, we'll keep 163 00:08:43,919 --> 00:08:47,320 some things you want to do, but we're doing this offense my way. 164 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:51,000 So I I wonder if I think it might be similar to that. 165 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:53,440 I think it, I think it is similar to that now. 166 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:56,560 Lafleur has a different philosophy than Arthur Smith. 167 00:08:56,880 --> 00:08:58,120 He's just, and he's a better coach. 168 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:01,600 So that that worked pretty well. Arthur Smith is going to be 169 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:04,680 overly tilted to the run pretty much regardless of situation. 170 00:09:04,680 --> 00:09:08,400 We know this, you know, I think he would probably like to turn 171 00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:12,080 this version of Rodgers kind of more into like the Tannehill 172 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:15,640 game manager type of guy as they as they lean on the run in the 173 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:18,520 defense like that. And like, I don't blame him 174 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:21,080 based on what Rodgers looked like last year. 175 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:26,520 So I would expect, you know, on the typical down that it's an 176 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:31,400 Arthur Smith play call. It's how much is Rodgers willing 177 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:36,680 and sort of gotten, you know, enough leash to audible to 178 00:09:36,680 --> 00:09:39,120 passes in key situations around the goal line. 179 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:42,840 I wouldn't be surprised at all if he actually does audible to 180 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:45,720 to passes at a decent rate because that's kind of his thing 181 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:48,640 is the pass at the goal line and he's got the quick release and 182 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:50,960 all of that. It's a high leverage kind of 183 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:53,520 situation. Probably not the hill you want 184 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:56,480 to die on if you're Smith, just let him let him do his little 185 00:09:56,480 --> 00:10:00,200 short passes. So yeah, but I I would be pretty 186 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:03,600 surprised if if Rogers had enough influence to make this a 187 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:06,480 positive PROE team. I mean, Smith is not just 188 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:08,800 negative PROE. He's he's mega negative. 189 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:11,160 He's like minus. 8 -, 10 would not. 190 00:10:11,560 --> 00:10:14,720 I, for one, would not be surprised if Arthur Smith gets 191 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:16,760 fired. I would not be surprised if 192 00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:20,760 there was like a very tacit agreement that like, as long as 193 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:26,760 we are winning games, as long as this is not like creating, like 194 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:29,760 if you're playing better than Kenny Pickett, Aaron, you want 195 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:33,880 to throw 42 times, Sure. Like I, I, it's. 196 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:35,040 I don't think so. Didn't. 197 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:37,480 I Don't think so at all. Didn't Rogers need the Steelers 198 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:39,040 more than the Steelers need the Rogers like they? 199 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:40,480 Both need to be chopper, so I think it's. 200 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:43,360 I think it's really kind of like Rogers is the more. 201 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:47,280 Dependent in some ways. Him not signing to me does not 202 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:50,680 speak of him having this big time leverage on them. 203 00:10:50,680 --> 00:10:54,560 It's that they were like, yeah, you can come if you want, man, 204 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:57,880 we're here. But like we're not like figure 205 00:10:57,880 --> 00:10:59,480 it out. You figure your your shit out 206 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:01,200 and come play for us if you want to play football. 207 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:04,680 It I mean, it was weird that they put themselves in a 208 00:11:04,680 --> 00:11:07,520 situation where they didn't really have another option if it 209 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:10,520 didn't show up. Matt Canada got fired in the 210 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:13,760 middle of the season. After like a long time. 211 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:17,840 He they've been calling to fire like Steelers fan wanted Canada 212 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:20,520 out for like 2 1/2 years before he got fired. 213 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:22,920 They were still winning though, correct? 214 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:24,080 Like they still make the playoffs. 215 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:28,200 There's always all. Right, let me they could start. 216 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:30,640 They could. They could start literally any. 217 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:32,720 They could start Davis fucking mad at the quarterback. 218 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:34,560 They would go nine and eight and be the seventh seed. 219 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:36,360 That's just, that's their destiny. 220 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:39,080 I'm going to make an analogy here that I think I will 221 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:42,320 actually that is going to turn Jacob to my side and it probably 222 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:45,280 won't do anything for Corinne. Do you know who Aaron Rodgers is 223 00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:49,840 right now for this organization? He is, who is he, 40 year old 224 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:53,920 LeBron James, where the organization is purposely doing 225 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:57,200 things that they would not do if he was not there, that are not. 226 00:11:57,200 --> 00:12:00,800 Analytically sent. I appreciate the analogy. 227 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:04,080 LeBron, Well, 11 LeBron is still probably like the 9th best 228 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:06,480 player in the NBA. And two, LeBron won them the 229 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:10,600 title when they were in complete wilderness and he got them the 230 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:12,200 title and the Lakers are forever. 231 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:14,720 Davis, this is a crazier conspiracy theory than anything 232 00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:16,040 I've ever heard from Aaron Rodgers. 233 00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:20,800 What are you talking about? What is happening is we are on 234 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:23,600 the, we are on the outside looking in and we say Aaron 235 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:26,320 Rodgers is the same thing as Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers is 236 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:29,080 the same thing as Kenny Pickett, Aaron Rodgers is the same thing 237 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:31,840 as 97 year old Ben Roethlisberger. 238 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:33,800 And I think it's really unlikely. 239 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:40,200 I, I just think it's very unlikely that people who are 240 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:44,000 big, who are football people, like when they think they're 241 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,840 getting Aaron Rodgers, they think we're getting capital A 242 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:49,520 capital R Aaron Rodgers. That is my guess. 243 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:53,360 That is my guess. I just think with Rodgers look, 244 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:58,720 he was quite empowered with McCarthy or maybe they just had 245 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:00,040 similar preferences so it worked. 246 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:01,640 Well, he was also a. Long time in Green Bay. 247 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:03,520 Way better then right? And he was way. 248 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:04,680 Better I know that's what I'm saying. 249 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:07,040 And he was he was one of the best quarterbacks of the world 250 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:08,680 may be the best for most of that period. 251 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:13,160 Then he has a a mild decline. I mean not even to the level 252 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:17,040 he's at now, but he has a mild decline and the Packers yank 253 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:19,520 back control. They go we're we're drafting. 254 00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:24,000 Yeah, and Roger and Roger said. And not yet, they said. 255 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:26,760 We're drafting Jordan Love, we'll bring in a new coach. 256 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:29,440 We're running his system and you can you can get on board with 257 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:31,280 it. And Rogers lined and he threw a 258 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:33,720 little hissy fit, but he did get on board with it and he won 259 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:35,840 back-to-back MVPS and they had a lot of success. 260 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:38,440 And then he said, OK, I'm I'm leaving. 261 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:42,600 And he chose The Jets. The Jets had no quarterback. 262 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:46,400 They were desperate. They they grovelled, they shamed 263 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:48,960 themselves to. To They shamed themselves, yeah. 264 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:51,440 And they they, they kissed his feet. 265 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:53,760 And so he said, you know, he had all the power in that 266 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:56,080 relationship. He was like, I'm, you know, I, I 267 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:58,360 get to do everything my way. I'm bringing in all my friends. 268 00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:01,360 I'm bringing in my coach, I'm calling all the plays. 269 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:05,040 We're not doing any motion. I go on Pat McAfee once a week. 270 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:07,760 Everybody has to tell me their favorite conspiracy theory 271 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:09,760 before they get allowed in the huddle. 272 00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:11,240 What's your what's your favorite? 273 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:13,160 Hold on, Wait, wait. What's your favorite conspiracy 274 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:15,960 theory? My mine personally. 275 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:19,600 You're you. Personally, I think that the 276 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:26,080 Olsen twins are just one person. I've never even heard that one. 277 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:28,640 My favorite is the Philadelphia Experiment. 278 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:31,160 That's the one that I'm just like, I've not heard any 279 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:33,800 convincing. Conspiracy theories suck. 280 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:36,960 Now, obviously in 2025, society has been ruined, conspiracy 281 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:38,760 theories have been ruined. But the Philadelphia Experiment? 282 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:45,080 Phenomenal, Karen. Here's my here's my theory. 283 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,040 This is this is something I heard about. 284 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:50,920 I think Ollie Connolly has made this point. 285 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:52,240 I believe that's where I heard this. 286 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:54,520 But he was like, here's here's the thing about the Steelers 287 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:55,880 that that you have to understand. 288 00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:59,600 They drafted Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. 289 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:04,680 They had him as their quarterback through multiple 290 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:08,200 eras of the NFL. He didn't retire till 2021. 291 00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:13,200 So like the NFL changed in multiple kind of different ways 292 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:17,000 over the course of Roethlisberger's entire career. 293 00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:22,840 And then they get here where like quarterback is now such a 294 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:25,640 priority, you have to you have to handle it differently than 295 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:30,600 you might have in 2004 or or 2009 or two. 1015. 296 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:33,480 Yeah, or 2015, like it's different now. 297 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:36,720 You know, it's all about, you know, you got the, you got the 298 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:40,920 quarterback contract, the rookie year thing, like the and, and 299 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:43,040 frankly, if you have a guy in the building that you think can 300 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:45,440 play like you don't let him, you don't let him leave. 301 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:47,480 You know that that's like another kind of key thing. 302 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:51,600 I think that they just completely screwed up the 303 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:54,480 offseason. They had a guy in Justin Fields 304 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:57,800 that they basically were like, hey, Justin, if we can't figure 305 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:00,840 out anything better, we're we're interested in maybe having you 306 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:03,400 back. That was they completely misread 307 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:06,040 the market. So Jets were like, hey, man, we 308 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:07,520 would like you to be our quarterback. 309 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:09,440 We're going to give you a deal that reflects that. 310 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:12,440 Hey, Sam Darnold, what like please come play for us. 311 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:15,240 We're going to give you it like a two year deal with a third 312 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:18,080 year option. Basically, there's lots of 313 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:20,520 interest in these quarterbacks that the Steelers were kind of 314 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:23,120 like, yeah, you're not so great. It's like, yeah, they're not. 315 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:25,880 But if you don't move, you're going to get left out in the 316 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:27,640 cold. And I think that's what 317 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:28,760 happened. I think they got left out in the 318 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:31,360 cold and that's why they had to sit around and wait for Aaron 319 00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:33,640 Rodgers to decide whether or not they're going to play for him. 320 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:37,000 I think they correctly did read Aaron Rodgers that he would play 321 00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:39,160 for them because they really just kind of they put all their 322 00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:40,640 eggs in that basket and here he is. 323 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:44,600 But I don't see this as like I, I just, I don't know. 324 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:48,880 I think, I think they kind of don't, they just kind of screwed 325 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:50,600 up the offseason. And so the idea that like, they 326 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:53,120 view him as like capital a capital R Aaron Rodgers. 327 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:55,440 I don't think they do. I think they kind of know who he 328 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:57,600 is. He's he's a diminished version 329 00:16:57,600 --> 00:16:59,400 of Rogers. They would have had to not watch 330 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:01,840 football last year to think that he's still capital, a capital 331 00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:03,920 Arian Rogers. He tore his Achilles two years 332 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:06,520 ago and he he looked like a different quarterback, not 333 00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:09,200 completely completely washed, but certainly not the guy he was 334 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:10,359 before. He, he, he just. 335 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:13,800 Can't he just can't move right? I mean that's like he literally 336 00:17:13,839 --> 00:17:16,920 he, he cannot move. It hurts big time and especially 337 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:19,960 it hurts the way that he wants to run his offense in the way 338 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,240 that he did last year where there's no, I mean, he's like, I 339 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:25,200 want to do my passes from under or from shotgun. 340 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:27,560 I want to run from under 7. I don't want there ever to be 341 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:29,600 any motion. I want everything to be as 342 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,480 static as possible so the defense can figure out exactly 343 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:33,840 what we're doing every single snap. 344 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:37,280 And like, you just can't mitigate that when you can't 345 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:42,040 move. So anyway, I, I, my, my point 346 00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:44,280 for all of that before, before David started quizzing us on 347 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:47,880 conspiracy theories was just that The Jets scenario I think 348 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:52,240 was very unique in that he was the one who had all of the power 349 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:55,720 because he chose The Jets and he kind of chose the Steelers, but 350 00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:57,000 the Steelers were his only choice. 351 00:17:57,280 --> 00:17:59,600 Rogers choices this offseason, seemingly. 352 00:17:59,840 --> 00:18:02,040 I guess he could have chose the Giants if he wanted to decide 353 00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:03,240 earlier, but then that was taken. 354 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:05,560 Off could Could he have? Could he have chosen the Browns, 355 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:08,080 by the way, do we think? That I don't think possible. 356 00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:11,240 I think that the Browns, I mean, that would have been really 357 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:14,080 funny if the Browns were like, hey, fans, we know you're really 358 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:18,720 mad at us about the Deshaun Watson experience, but have you 359 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:23,160 considered the Aaron Rodgers? That would have been hilarious. 360 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:24,920 But I don't think that was a real option. 361 00:18:26,120 --> 00:18:31,440 I I just think with with with this, it was once the Giants 362 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:33,320 were like, cool man, we've moved on. 363 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:40,960 His choices were, you know, have a show on the Daily Wire or, or 364 00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:44,040 back to Pittsburgh Steelers. And so like he chose the latter 365 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:45,640 option and that that's going to come. 366 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:47,840 With well, he he also says this is last year. 367 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:50,880 So, you know, look, look forward to that show and hitting, 368 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:52,440 hitting your airwaves in 2026. Yeah. 369 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:57,000 Yeah, just just horrible. So I I think. 370 00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:00,240 It's a reprieve. It's it's still coming, but I 371 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,320 got a year off. To get to something actionable 372 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:05,560 here. Oh actually I got one more 373 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:07,400 question before we get into something actionable. 374 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:12,120 Does your opinion on Roger's hierarchy amongst decision 375 00:19:12,120 --> 00:19:16,680 makers for who calls the plays change if they trade a sixth 376 00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:19,200 round pick for Alan Lazard? Like if if. 377 00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:21,360 Yeah 'cause I think it has to right? 378 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:22,200 If. They if they. 379 00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:26,680 Yeah, or if Mercedes Lewis signs. 380 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:30,920 Or if Randall. Cobb card, Mercedes Lewis, any 381 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:34,400 of his gang of mid shows up at the Pittsburgh Steelers 382 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:36,960 facility. Yeah, if any member of like the 383 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:43,000 2018 Green Bay Packers goes up in Latrobe, I'm I'm upgrading 384 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:46,880 their PROE by two percentage points per member of the 2018 385 00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:49,120 Green Bay Packers. We're used to the Canary in the 386 00:19:49,120 --> 00:19:51,320 coal mine, but what about the Lazard in Latrobe? 387 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:56,880 The Lazard The Lazard in Latrobe I if Robert Tunyon is brought to 388 00:19:56,880 --> 00:19:59,560 camp of any any of these players. 389 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,320 Well, and the reason? Why the tunyon in the tunnel? 390 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:04,520 The reason why I wanted to start. 391 00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:09,600 Here Aberdaris gets. A hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, 392 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:13,720 Jared, Jeff Janis, Jared Aberdare's, Jay Coomerno. 393 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:15,360 Any of these. Any of these. 394 00:20:15,360 --> 00:20:17,800 Guys, Onimo, Allison, Randall Cobb. 395 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:21,520 Randall Cobb would be a big one. Geronimo Geronimo Allison 396 00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:25,160 Geronimo Allison probably is just a straight up upgrade for. 397 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:26,520 They might. Seriously, they could use 398 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:28,080 Randall Cobb I. Think they could use? 399 00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:33,840 Yeah, the reason why I ask this is I actually. 400 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:37,680 Think. Defining these range of outcomes 401 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:40,640 for the late round quarterbacks, like the difference between 402 00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:45,040 Rodgers, Darnold, Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, Jackson 403 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:50,840 Dart, Russell Wilson. I actually think that as these 404 00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:54,000 guys get close, like these guys are all 100% drafted now, 405 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,400 basically, particularly on DraftKings, right? 406 00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,160 The 20 round stuff, they're going every single time. 407 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:04,720 So it's, it's kind of in my mind that like getting this right is 408 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:07,480 actually a huge part of the season, right? 409 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:09,960 Does it only affect like one player though? 410 00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:16,000 Well, it if not if if Rogers is if the Steelers are 8th in the 411 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,120 NFL and PROE if Rogers throws 580 passes again. 412 00:21:19,120 --> 00:21:21,560 No, I mean it can impact John and it can impact firemooth. 413 00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:25,520 One of Calvin Austin or Roman Wilson can be like. 414 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,480 AI just so much rather because. You're gonna I think I think the 415 00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:32,640 only real thing that happens is that it just makes DKA better 416 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:36,240 pick and I guess it makes Caleb Johnson a a slightly worse pick, 417 00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:37,600 but like. Well. 418 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:41,520 Not not once you get past like once you get past like Connor 419 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,720 Henry to me, like every time is just the same anyway. 420 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:46,480 So like there's not really any difference. 421 00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:49,840 It's like you could take a guy who's undrafted and 90% of draft 422 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:53,080 so you can take the Next up in ADP and it's like you're you're 423 00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,360 basically just hoping for a touchdown in week 17. 424 00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:58,480 So I like almost don't even care about the effect on Johnny or 425 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:02,920 Friarmouth. And then like DK, obviously if 426 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:05,960 they pass way more than I expect is is a much better pick than 427 00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,720 I'm currently ranking him. Yeah, but he's not like he's 428 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:13,640 super cheap, man. Yeah, if if if DK Metcalf was 429 00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:20,240 going like where Jerry Judy is, you know, then I then it'd be 430 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:22,760 like, OK, there's a lot of room for upside here. 431 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:27,240 If Rogers is like, you know, as much better than Joe Flacco can 432 00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:29,880 he Pickett and the two rookies as we expect, like we what are 433 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:30,920 we doing? Like they're going to throw 434 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,160 some. But he's not that's not 435 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:35,760 happening at all. He's going at the 3-4 or the, 436 00:22:36,360 --> 00:22:41,040 yeah, the no, the 4-5 turn, which is still like there. 437 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:43,720 There's, there's plenty of guys there that I want. 438 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,080 Great. Pull up the pull up the slide, 439 00:22:46,360 --> 00:22:47,920 pull up the This should have been up. 440 00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:49,280 This should have been up the entire time. 441 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,920 Just one thing I did absolutely want to note about this is Pat 442 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,960 Fryermuth just looks like every guy that goes to your local gym. 443 00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:58,600 Pat Pat Fryermuth just like I did book. 444 00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:00,000 The slide, I want to finish my point. 445 00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,120 Yes, sorry you have to talk about. 446 00:23:02,120 --> 00:23:02,840 What? Continue. 447 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:03,960 Continue. Oh, please, Joe Tell. 448 00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:05,680 I know. Well, it's just. 449 00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:09,200 Like how, How could it possibly, how could Pat Fryermuth possibly 450 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:14,040 be the the guy you need when he looks like a 38 year old middle 451 00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:18,640 manager at a a car dealership? Like what is going on? 452 00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:21,120 How is that what Pat Fryermuth looks like? 453 00:23:21,120 --> 00:23:24,280 He. Looks like someone's brother. 454 00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:27,880 Yeah, like Pat. Get in here. 455 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:32,120 Come on. He, he does he, he literally 456 00:23:32,120 --> 00:23:34,840 does look like, like a trainer's brother. 457 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,800 He's like, Oh yeah, you know, he was helping us run routes. 458 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,400 He's. He's moving around tables and 459 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,800 stuff and they're like come on, get in moving tables. 460 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:48,680 Is is is that so? It's it's Roman Wilson, Calvin 461 00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:50,480 Austin. Well, definitely Calvin Austin 462 00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:52,400 in the middle because he looks like Toad. 463 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,800 Who is that? Is that Gunner Olizweski? 464 00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,120 Who is? Who is in between? 465 00:23:59,360 --> 00:24:03,400 Who is between Fryermuth? And is that Scottie Miller or no 466 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:05,720 Scottie Miller's on the left? It's Scottie Miller. 467 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:08,400 Yeah, that's Scottie Miller all the way on the end. 468 00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:15,120 OK, who's next to Rogers? Roman Wilson. 469 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,280 That's Roman Wilson, OK. Bullish. 470 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:20,400 I don't know who's bet. I don't know who is between 471 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:23,440 Fryermuth and Miller though. Yeah, I got, I got no clue. 472 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:29,520 I got no clue who that is. Roman Wilson being Roger's left 473 00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:30,760 hand man. Bullish. 474 00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:34,560 Are we concerned that Robert Woods is not in this photo? 475 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:36,760 Roman Wilson looks like. He Robert Woods. 476 00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:40,040 I I'm not I. Don't like oh, it's, it's 477 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:41,760 scaronic. It's been. 478 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:42,600 It's been. Scaronic. 479 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:47,520 Oh, good old Benny scow. Classic, classic. 480 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:51,920 Look at the Roman Wilson looks like he's being held hostage. 481 00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:53,480 I'm not I'm not a fan. It's. 482 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:57,160 True of It looks like Aaron Rodgers just told Roman Wilson 483 00:24:57,160 --> 00:25:00,120 to steal the Declaration of Independence and he's not that 484 00:25:00,120 --> 00:25:01,880 into it. Why? 485 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:04,520 OK, why is Darnell Washington not in the picture? 486 00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,480 Where's Darnell? See, he's currently. 487 00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:08,240 Stealing. He's too. 488 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:14,280 He's too big to be pictured. Darnell Washington is too big to 489 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:16,400 run routes. How much ayahuasca do you think 490 00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:18,480 Darnell Washington would need to take to get high? 491 00:25:19,360 --> 00:25:22,000 So much more than all the rest of those guys like. 492 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,360 DWK Metcalf. Because he would have taken like 493 00:25:24,360 --> 00:25:27,800 50% of the ayahuasca just for himself to feel something. 494 00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,800 DK Metcalf refuses to be pictured with Darnell Washington 495 00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:32,360 because it's going to ruin his Rep. 496 00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:34,240 He needs to always be the biggest man. 497 00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:37,600 Yeah, that's true. I kind of like DK Metcalf's 498 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,520 energy here where he's he's, you know, standing straight, 499 00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:42,840 straight up, right, Got the two arms out. 500 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:45,840 He looks, he looks, you know, like he's having a good time, 501 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:50,360 kind of kind of gregarious. And Roger, he's got his arm 502 00:25:50,360 --> 00:25:51,560 around Rogers. But look at Roger. 503 00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,480 Rogers has to, he can't be, he doesn't, he's not going to come 504 00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:57,120 under the DK. He doesn't want to be, you know, 505 00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:00,200 the little brother get little brothered by the by the DK arm. 506 00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,680 So he's like keeping his distance a little. 507 00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:08,040 Meanwhile, BK's basically got, he's got a little hug going with 508 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,320 Calvin Austin. So I kind of. 509 00:26:10,360 --> 00:26:13,000 Really. I got really perished that Roman 510 00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:16,800 Wilson has Rodgers arm around him. 511 00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:21,600 One, looks miserable and two, his arm is not touching Aaron. 512 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:23,560 Rodgers not touching Aaron Rodgers right down. 513 00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:27,000 Yeah, See, I think, I think DK and Rodgers, this looks like 514 00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,800 people who've kind of like worked, worked it out a bit, 515 00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:33,360 like there's a sort of a mutual respect thing happening, or at 516 00:26:33,360 --> 00:26:36,320 least, you know, there's a truce of some kind. 517 00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:38,160 No, I'm, I'm disagreeing with this. 518 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:41,200 I think it's ultimately end of the day, it is most bullish that 519 00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:46,040 Roman Wilson is next to Rogers. Ultimately, ultimately, I'm 520 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:47,240 going. Bullish man. 521 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:50,360 Also. He's kind of in front of Rogers. 522 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:55,280 Like he's not even it. It does not look like it's very 523 00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:56,680 strange. It's very strange. 524 00:26:56,720 --> 00:27:00,400 I think it's pretty bearish. Roman Wilson's also from Hawaii. 525 00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:04,680 So I feel like people from like in Hawaii, I feel like they 526 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,640 actually have like real spiritual knowledge. 527 00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,400 So I feel like you would find Aaron Rodgers uniquely annoying 528 00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:14,320 if you're like from like a historical and spiritual area 529 00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:17,280 and then you just have like this random white guy just like 530 00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,280 coming in and like talking a bunch of nonsense. 531 00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:22,840 I think I would find Aaron Rodgers like even three times 532 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:24,480 more annoying than I currently do. 533 00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:31,800 That's my yeah. I mean, I could see that it's, I 534 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,240 don't know, isn't there a cap? Is there a cap to how annoying 535 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,520 you can find someone he's kind of butting up against? 536 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:39,480 I don't think so. The limit does not exist the. 537 00:27:40,120 --> 00:27:44,200 Limit does not exist. The there's a really interesting 538 00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:47,080 comment here. Where did he go? 539 00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:49,560 But I'm sorry, I'll find it and pull it up. 540 00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:52,640 But the point is that it looks like DK Metcalf. 541 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,720 DK Metcalf is holding on to Pat Fryermuth's shoulder in in his. 542 00:27:57,120 --> 00:27:58,960 Oh, that's true. He's fully. 543 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:03,680 Wrapped from Calvin Austin. He's got like 3 people under his 544 00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:05,720 yoke. He's that is a flex. 545 00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,600 Is this now we? I assumed Roger's hand was 546 00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:10,960 around Roman Wilson. Is that actually Metcalf's? 547 00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,320 Ultimately, I think I'm gonna be on the right side of history 548 00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:22,680 here. Roman Wilson is gonna be a 549 00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:26,040 classic Aaron Rodgers guy. What? 550 00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:31,160 Like I I said, it's DK Metcalf Elastigirl isn't like like from 551 00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:35,480 Fantastic Four the one with like you can do like woo like stretch 552 00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:39,000 your arms in various ways. Davis, this picture is, is, I 553 00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:42,320 would say, at least inconclusive evidence on Roman Wilson's role 554 00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:44,200 this year. I would say a stronger piece of 555 00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:47,360 evidence is that they just traded for Johnny Smith and love 556 00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:49,880 Darnell Washington and are probably going to play more 13 557 00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:52,480 than any NFL team. Ever. 558 00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:57,240 Potentially ever. 1964. Yeah, since the Wing T was like 559 00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:01,840 the dominant offense. Yeah, so I don't know, That 560 00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:04,320 seems bad. That seems bad for Roman Wilson 561 00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:08,080 IF. I if I'm just thinking classic 562 00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:11,520 Aaron Rodgers decides one guy's going to score 8 touchdowns, 563 00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,280 it's going to be Roman Wilson. Well, actually, it's probably 564 00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:17,160 Darnell Washington somehow. Darnell. 565 00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,880 Washington replicating the the Robert Tonyon season. 566 00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:25,240 That's probably enough of the Aaron Rodgers circle of trust. 567 00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:29,280 I think after 30 minutes we can probably go ahead and get to the 568 00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:31,520 risers everyone. 30 Let's move on. 569 00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:36,120 Yeah, nice, tight, dirty. So everyone decided that two 570 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:42,760 confluent things are causing Tyreek Hill to change 16.5% in 571 00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:46,640 ADP. First being Tariq Hill attended 572 00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:48,920 a track and field event. I did not do the research to 573 00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:50,680 know what event this was. I don't know if this is like a 574 00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:53,080 Nike sponsored thing. I don't know if this is Olympic 575 00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,720 qualifying, but he won the races that he participated in. 576 00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:01,960 He ran 100 meters and I think 10.35 seconds, maybe even faster 577 00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:05,480 than that. And everyone has basically done 578 00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:09,680 the CMC thing with Tyriq, which is everyday that Tyriq is not 579 00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:13,160 well, everyday that Tyreek is not injured is a day that he's 580 00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,920 not injured, meaning it's less likely that he gets injured. 581 00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:19,680 So let's keep taking him. Same thing is happening with 582 00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:22,480 Devin a chain. Same thing is happening with 583 00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:25,440 Joel model, not as it relates to their health, but basically, 584 00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:31,800 instead of reallocating any of those what 8085 targets for 585 00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:35,880 Jonny Smith to a a different player to an unnamed player to 586 00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:39,920 Malik Washington to Nick Westbrook, akin, all of those 587 00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,560 targets have been equally distributed across those three 588 00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:45,560 players with none going to anyone else. 589 00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,440 I think the market is probably correct in this. 590 00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:52,320 The price I'm obviously most interested in is a chain. 591 00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:55,240 Like I think they're I I could see an argument to take a chain 592 00:30:55,240 --> 00:31:00,840 at like the 1.8 or whatever. I don't particularly think it 593 00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:05,560 should be newsworthy that Tyree kill is fast though, right? 594 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:07,560 I mean, I think we we probably already knew that. 595 00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:11,640 Thoughts. I don't know. 596 00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:19,560 I mean, I guess I with Tyree Kill there, you know, last year 597 00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:22,400 was such a dramatic drop off that the question around this 598 00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:27,040 entire offseason has been, is it because he's old and now he's 599 00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:32,000 not the same guy? Or did the offense kind of 600 00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:36,640 collapse into this weird version of itself and maybe they're able 601 00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:39,560 to pull up out of that? The problem I think is that the 602 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:43,120 offense I'm I'm on team offense, not team. 603 00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:46,280 I'm I'm on team. I'm on team offense, yeah. 604 00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:51,280 Because the reason I feel that way is that Waddle also 605 00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:54,480 collapsed, and also that Tyreek wasn't really. 606 00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:57,600 That inefficient collapsed inefficiency as well. 607 00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:00,000 In rushing efficiency, he he mega collapsed. 608 00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:03,920 Yeah, he was slightly better as a receiver, but he just got fed 609 00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:09,120 targets. Tyree kill wasn't like crazy 610 00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:12,160 inefficient last year, he's just was way less efficient than he 611 00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:14,000 was the previous year. But that is in part because he 612 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:17,920 was facing mega negative regression headwinds then he was 613 00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:19,320 always going to kind of decline some. 614 00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:22,120 The problem though, even if you think that it was more the 615 00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:25,960 offense than Tyree being washed, is that one, he's still going to 616 00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:29,040 be old this year, so he might become washed at some point this 617 00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:30,280 year. So you it's not like the age 618 00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:31,960 thing doesn't matter. It does. 619 00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:34,880 Last year was a fake age Cliff and then this year. 620 00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:36,680 Is the real age Cliff? Yeah. 621 00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,840 So that's still still looming. He will hit the age Cliff at 622 00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:41,440 some point. The other thing is that the 623 00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:45,520 offense was like this because they had a quarterback who has 624 00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:51,000 serious concussion issues. And if he if he takes hits, he 625 00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,400 will potentially miss the entire season. 626 00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:57,640 And he has a horrible offensive line that can't protect. 627 00:32:57,640 --> 00:32:59,560 Him. Who's the backup, by the way? 628 00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:00,640 It's probably someone really. Good. 629 00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:02,680 And now the backup is Zach Wilson. 630 00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:06,080 It's not someone good. Even worse, potentially than 631 00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:09,160 last year. All of these things remain true. 632 00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:13,120 The offensive line like they I don't know what is going on, 633 00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:16,280 like why they this it. It has been a dire need for them 634 00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:17,960 to fix this offensive line just from like a. 635 00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:20,680 Football, they added, they added a bunch of guys. 636 00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:23,520 Not really, the line is still bad. 637 00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:26,560 No, man, I really forget who wrote this the other day. 638 00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:27,960 This is good. This is going to be really. 639 00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:30,280 And they just have like a second round pick or someone. 640 00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:32,960 Like, no, no, they did. They did multiple things. 641 00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:34,880 Oh, this is going to drive me nuts. 642 00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:36,960 I really wish that I could retain offensive line 643 00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:38,680 information, but they. Lost. 644 00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,880 They lost Armstead. But Armstead, Yeah. 645 00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:43,400 Oh, fuck. Who wrote? 646 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:44,880 I think it was Gretch. You know what? 647 00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:47,640 It was Gretch. So let me go, Let me go and find 648 00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:48,920 this. Yeah, I'm looking at all of 649 00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:52,160 their transactions. So like I don't see. 650 00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:56,680 Frankly, here's here's here's the PFF right up. 651 00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:59,560 They put this out a day ago. This is the 2025 offensive line 652 00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:01,240 rankings. Obviously not definitive. 653 00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:03,840 We'll, we'll get, you know, lots of people doing their offensive 654 00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:05,840 line analysis, setting it, but they have the Dolphins with the 655 00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:11,480 25th ranked line, says Tyrone. Tyrone Armstead's retirement 656 00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:13,760 sends one of the NF LS best offensive tackles to the 657 00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:15,159 sideline, but. He barely. 658 00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:18,440 Played the impact. They've got a second round pick. 659 00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:21,800 Patrick Paul's projected to start at left tackle that that 660 00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,520 sorry, that was their 2024 second round pick last year. 661 00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,239 He's struggled as a rookie. Now he's their starting left 662 00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:29,520 tackle. They picked up James Daniels and 663 00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:34,560 they got a second round draft pick Jonah Savaina, and that 664 00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:36,000 should help solidify the interior. 665 00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:41,199 So that's that's three new, that's three new guys and well. 666 00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:43,480 It's not giving a bus. I mean it's 2 new guys. 667 00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:46,040 One of them is the guy who wasn't good enough to play them 668 00:34:46,159 --> 00:34:49,199 previously who has to play because they're good player 669 00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:51,400 retired. It's it's a, it's a probable 670 00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:56,000 bust filling in at left tackle for Armstead and two new players 671 00:34:57,520 --> 00:35:00,200 and one and and none of these guys were first round picks. 672 00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:04,400 Wait, hold on. Giga brain from the chat. 673 00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:08,120 Remember, left tackle not as important for a left-handed 674 00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:10,200 quarterback. Right tackle more important. 675 00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,240 You think he's less likely to get a concussion if the if he 676 00:35:13,240 --> 00:35:15,080 sees the guy smashing him to the ground? 677 00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:18,000 All this is, this is all I'm saying. 678 00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:22,080 It's it's probable that the Miami Dolphins offensive line is 679 00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:24,240 not going to be one of the league's best units. 680 00:35:24,240 --> 00:35:28,080 But if you made me wager -110 one way or the other, will the 681 00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:32,320 Dolphins offensive line be a storyline for the entire season 682 00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:36,000 the way it was last year? I would bet no -110 just because 683 00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:38,240 that is kind of the way offensive line stuff works. 684 00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:42,920 Like offensive lines are rarely huge problems the year before, 685 00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:45,280 then huge problems again the next year. 686 00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:47,960 Because like all the organizational focus is on 687 00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:50,920 devising different protection schemes, figuring out what this 688 00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,280 guy can do, figuring out what this guy can do, and just 689 00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,080 playing things in a different way. 690 00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:58,200 That would be that would be my guess. 691 00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,240 My my concern though is that like cuz this is fine says was 692 00:36:01,240 --> 00:36:03,960 their online good in 2023 or 2022? 693 00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:08,800 No, it wasn't. But two dealt with the the 694 00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:13,120 concussion in 2023 that I think kind of changed things. 695 00:36:13,120 --> 00:36:16,520 And we see last year at a concussion and it's like 2 was 696 00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:21,080 going to IR with this, like he's missing a huge chunk of games. 697 00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:23,520 The second he has a concussion. We know it's different with Tua 698 00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:26,440 in the concussions. It's it's not like any other 699 00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:31,040 quarterback is back there. So it's just it's a much bigger 700 00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:35,280 concern that the offensive line is still looking pretty weak. 701 00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:38,720 Maybe it's not the worst in the league, you know, but it's it's 702 00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:41,560 below average at at the very best. 703 00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:45,400 And it's probably among the 10 worst offensive lines in the 704 00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:47,840 league. And that's just a bad spot to be 705 00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:51,720 in if you've got to which I, you know, I don't know how much 706 00:36:51,720 --> 00:36:55,520 control Mike Mcdaniel's Mike McDaniel has had over not fixing 707 00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:57,120 the offensive line, which I think is a big mistake. 708 00:36:57,680 --> 00:36:59,480 But I do give him credit for understanding. 709 00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:02,160 I got to get the ball out super, super quick here. 710 00:37:02,720 --> 00:37:04,800 And I think that's the big thing with Tyreke. 711 00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:08,160 Now the question for me with the Johnny trade is, does that come 712 00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:10,400 back to Tyreke? Do they start to incorporate 713 00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:12,480 Tyreke more? And we have seen them do stuff 714 00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:15,720 where, you know, the, the quick motion stuff and you know, 715 00:37:15,720 --> 00:37:18,800 they've, they've added a new wrinkle basically every year to 716 00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:21,600 try to to get Tyreke more involved, take advantage of his 717 00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:23,840 speed. My hope would be that that new 718 00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:27,480 wrinkle is for short targets to Tyreke that help replace some of 719 00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:29,320 the Janu stuff. And then he can just get fed 720 00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:31,800 that way. But I don't expect this offense 721 00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:35,440 to be able to kind of take flight again because of the 722 00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:38,160 offensive line and because of who they're protecting. 723 00:37:40,240 --> 00:37:42,600 This is going to sound. This is going to sound stupid, 724 00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:44,960 but that is like future Davis's problem. 725 00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:48,640 That is like week 4 NFLDFS Davis's problem. 726 00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:50,920 I'm. Not talking about. 727 00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:54,840 Because I think it's, I think it's really dumb to try and 728 00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:56,840 control for that right now because. 729 00:37:56,840 --> 00:38:00,880 All that matters. No, because in a scenario, in a 730 00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:03,480 scenario where the Dolphins offensive line plays like 731 00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:07,360 roughly fine, they're like the 19th best pass block graded 732 00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:11,640 offensive line in the NFL, you're gonna feel like a moron. 733 00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:15,160 I don't think I will. I think that's maybe that's 734 00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:16,240 where we disagree the most. I'm. 735 00:38:16,240 --> 00:38:20,000 Gonna feel I'm gonna feel a OK fading Tyree kill. 736 00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:26,160 This is like, I hate doing this because it's not like it's not 737 00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:28,520 like because last year in a completely different situation, 738 00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:31,960 it worked out very well that it's going to work out the same 739 00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:34,280 way again. But like I just cannot help feel 740 00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:37,040 like this Tyree kill move up and everything that's happening 741 00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:40,520 right now and me getting flamed on every podcast is just like 742 00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:43,520 literally exactly how I felt about Cooper cup the entire 743 00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:47,280 offseason last year where it was like this cheap price that I 744 00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:50,000 like had no interest in. And then he moved up and then 745 00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,480 everybody said you got to get in like a good and good reports 746 00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:54,920 like he's back. And it's just like, no, like, to 747 00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:57,440 me, I'm like, I, I don't have an interest in like trying to 748 00:38:57,440 --> 00:39:00,400 parse. Like to me it's just a simple 749 00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:04,240 that when I have an over 30 wide receiver who starts to massively 750 00:39:04,240 --> 00:39:07,480 decline, I I don't have interest in parsing out. 751 00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:09,320 Is it injury? Is it offensive line? 752 00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:11,200 Is it what? Like, to me, one of the reasons 753 00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:13,480 why their offense was bad last year might be because Tyree kill 754 00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:16,760 wasn't as good anymore. And and that might be partially 755 00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:19,880 what broke their offense. Like I, I just, I'm very 756 00:39:19,880 --> 00:39:24,280 confident that on the aggregate, not paying round two prices for 757 00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:28,600 over 30 wide receivers whose deficiency falls off the Cliff 758 00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:30,400 is going to be the right decision. 759 00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:32,320 It might not be the right decision on this specific case, 760 00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:35,440 but I, I, I think from a process perspective, he remains 761 00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:39,840 overpriced and he's getting more so and I'm very happy to just 762 00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:41,520 follow. He's moving in a range. 763 00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:47,200 I I so I have 4% hill. It's not like, you know, I 764 00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:50,000 wasn't like super in, but I wasn't also doing like the big 765 00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:53,360 time mega fade that you were doing. 766 00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:58,280 And so but you know, I'm kind of a little bit more nervous. 767 00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:02,400 I'm it was at 5% in BBM. So you know, I was dabbling. 768 00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:06,040 As he moves up, though, you are looking at a kind of different 769 00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:09,280 tier of opportunity cost. When you have Trey McBride going 770 00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:12,040 there. You've got, you know, Roshi Rice 771 00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:15,280 is kind of moving up in tandem. But if if it was sitting at the 772 00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:17,920 2 three turn, I had a chance to take Roshi Rice or Tyree kill. 773 00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:21,360 I'm slamming Roshi Rice. TT Higgins is there. 774 00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:24,440 You also have Bucky Irving, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs 775 00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:27,240 even, I think. Like, I mean, Jacobs is coming 776 00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:30,920 up for really strong season, you know, so I don't know, I guess I 777 00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:36,920 you're moving to a different group of players that I when it 778 00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:40,520 was Tyree kill versus Damonte Adams and Mike Evans, I was just 779 00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:42,840 like, OK, all these guys could be washed. 780 00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:45,840 Let me just take the harder mega ceiling the the nuclear ceiling. 781 00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:48,200 That hasn't even lost yet. Evans has gone. 782 00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:52,960 No indication of decline. Sure, but he's But he's old 783 00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:56,560 enough to wear. Well, he lower body injury 784 00:40:56,560 --> 00:40:57,160 could. Right. 785 00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:01,280 So we but we know, but I just what I don't understand is like 786 00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:02,920 we have these 3 old wide receivers. 787 00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:04,800 Well, they used to all go in the third. 788 00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:07,440 Because I think the decline, I think the decline thing is kind 789 00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:09,720 of fake. Like I think it's a bad framing. 790 00:41:09,720 --> 00:41:12,880 Like I agree with the he had the same yards per hour run as JSN 791 00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:14,480 last year. I think he was slightly higher. 792 00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:17,400 This is like people were this is how people were Cooper coping 793 00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:19,920 last year. Like when yes, I understand that 794 00:41:19,920 --> 00:41:22,400 these guys have farther to fall because they were better. 795 00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:24,240 I don't care about what their actual numbers are. 796 00:41:24,240 --> 00:41:26,840 I care about the decline. I care about what the actual 797 00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:29,280 numbers are. That matters a lot more to me 798 00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:31,200 than decline. I, I disagree. 799 00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:34,760 I, I think it's because we know that the decline is extremely 800 00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:37,320 steep at the wide receiver position and often irreversible. 801 00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:40,920 So I, I often I, I don't think this is actually true in this 802 00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:43,200 case. I, I think it's less about where 803 00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:45,360 the numbers are now. I think you're catching a 804 00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:47,880 falling knife. I I think it's like you're. 805 00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:51,480 I certainly agree. With you with this specific 806 00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:54,200 numbers and looking at, OK, well, how are this? 807 00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:56,680 Because to me, it's like you're looking at a graph that is like 808 00:41:56,680 --> 00:41:59,640 here and you're trying to stop it in one specific portion. 809 00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:02,400 I think often the reason why we see these numbers get propped up 810 00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:05,280 is because you're catching a lag where this offense had a person 811 00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:08,680 in their plans and then they realize it's not the same player 812 00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:10,440 anymore and they have to change plans. 813 00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:14,040 And so they're getting inflated numbers because they're trying 814 00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:15,920 to build around a superstar. He wasn't that superstar 815 00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:17,080 anymore. He's just a guy wearing his 816 00:42:17,080 --> 00:42:19,840 jersey. I think your argument would be a 817 00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:22,920 lot stronger if Waddle had done anything last year, but Waddle 818 00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:26,360 was was I get that absolutely evaporated from the offense as 819 00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:27,480 well. They couldn't get the ball to 820 00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:30,600 the receivers. I just, and you know, also like 821 00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:34,600 I know I am parsing it, but like I wrote this up every week, it 822 00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:37,000 was just crystal, crystal clear what was happening. 823 00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:39,200 Like it was predictable. You'd go into it, you'd like 824 00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:41,600 they're going to have to pass, but they're all going to just 825 00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:44,480 pass a bunch to a Chan and Jonnu because they cannot do anything 826 00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:46,960 else other than get the ball out in like 2.4 seconds. 827 00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:48,280 Like that's their whole game plan. 828 00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:49,800 So why? Why did they not get the ball 829 00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:51,560 out fast at Tyree Kell if he was still good? 830 00:42:51,720 --> 00:42:56,440 He's like they used to. They used to and they did some. 831 00:42:56,480 --> 00:42:57,920 I mean it's. Just they didn't have the. 832 00:42:57,920 --> 00:43:00,720 Same. Tyreek, even in Kansas City, 833 00:43:00,720 --> 00:43:03,160 like his absolute peak peak peek. 834 00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:08,200 It wasn't like you think about oh man, what was the peak Tyreek 835 00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:11,120 play? It was never like, you know, a a 836 00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:15,320 quick alert screen or whatever to him like that wasn't really 837 00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:18,800 his game. He's not like a a tackle breaker 838 00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:21,680 like it's, it's more like you want to get. 839 00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:26,680 Into one well, sure as part of why he had a way higher ceiling 840 00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:30,560 in Miami by by the way, Matt Harmon yesterday this was like, 841 00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:32,680 I mean, do you want to talk about tweets that I want to see 842 00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:35,400 on my timeline? Those once terrifying dig routes 843 00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:38,360 to Tyreek Hill down there in Miami were not very scary last 844 00:43:38,360 --> 00:43:40,000 year, especially against man coverage. 845 00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:42,120 Looking forward to the reception perception. 846 00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:45,160 I'm very intrigued to see the results when that comes out. 847 00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:49,680 This is 1 where you and I don't really fully agree here, but if 848 00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:52,520 the price changes, then I think we do agree because there's just 849 00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:56,680 like there's enough inherent risk where I'm going to be like, 850 00:43:57,840 --> 00:44:00,440 hey, man, this guy, he wasn't he wasn't that efficient. 851 00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:02,760 Like he did fall off to a level that I don't love. 852 00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:08,120 It's just not it's not like, OK, he's definitely washed, but when 853 00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:12,240 it if he's going to move up to the 2 three turn, there's a ton 854 00:44:12,240 --> 00:44:14,680 of risk there. And and it it's also like you're 855 00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:17,560 now moving into a group of guys who have really big upside. 856 00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:20,280 So now, like to me, the thing with Hill that made him more 857 00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:24,320 appealing at the end of the third or even kind of the mid to 858 00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:27,920 end of the third is that I do think that he has the ceiling of 859 00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:29,920 a guy kind of more at the 2 three turn. 860 00:44:30,600 --> 00:44:32,360 So it's like, all right, I'm getting a discount. 861 00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:34,520 I'm getting I'm getting the ceiling and I'm not having to 862 00:44:34,520 --> 00:44:36,680 pay full price. But now if he moves up to the 2 863 00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:40,960 three turn, I'm like Rashi Rice could easily, easily outscore 864 00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:42,800 Tyreke even if he hasn't fallen off. 865 00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:45,280 Like there's there's a lot and that that and he's not the only 866 00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:47,360 one there. You know that there was a 867 00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:52,280 question here about Tyreke's potential price next year. 868 00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:55,040 And I think that that's a helpful way to frame it. 869 00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:58,600 Like where do you think he gets? Drafted well, because of the way 870 00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:00,600 underdog. Because of the way underdog 871 00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:06,480 drafters behave basically like age decline is priced in even if 872 00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:09,440 it's unseen, right? Devante Adams being priced like 873 00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:11,720 there's age-related decline. We haven't seen Derrick Henry. 874 00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:15,320 I mean, I guess Derrick Henry a little bit less this year, Joe 875 00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:17,880 Mixon, like it's just the way that you can. 876 00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:21,240 You can turn the Todd, I mean Barclay's going like 4th. 877 00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:25,480 Barclay's 2018 comes back and he has his 2023 season. 878 00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:28,840 He'll probably go in like the early second or one two term 879 00:45:28,840 --> 00:45:32,280 like he won't go with the one O 3 like he used to, but it'll go. 880 00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:34,080 I would expect that the 1-2 turn. 881 00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:38,600 I'm going to run. 2023 season, but I'm going to also go where 882 00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:41,960 Cooper Cup goes right now if he has a not very good season. 883 00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:48,720 Let's do a quick stathead filter for his aging cohort. 884 00:45:48,720 --> 00:45:53,080 And I want Jacob, who is more numerically strenuous than I am, 885 00:45:53,080 --> 00:45:53,880 to help me run it. What? 886 00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:58,720 What parameters would you set to find a good cohort for Tyreek's 887 00:45:58,720 --> 00:46:00,800 age? 2024 season and then check their 888 00:46:00,800 --> 00:46:03,760 N plus ones. Oh God. 889 00:46:05,120 --> 00:46:12,320 Like 115 targets, 5 or more touchdowns, 900 or more yard. 890 00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:13,720 How many scrimmage yards did he have? 891 00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:17,120 Yeah, but that's like that doesn't capture it. 892 00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:19,840 Like to to me, like you have to look at like and I wouldn't 893 00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:22,200 have, I wouldn't think of how to do this for these names, but 894 00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:24,240 like you'd have to be looking at guys who had. 895 00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:26,120 Who were really good performance. 896 00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:31,840 And then had like a year that is like what you're describing that 897 00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:35,120 is good for most players, but like quite bad for them. 898 00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:40,520 Like it's, it's a very specific case 'cause like, otherwise 899 00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:42,840 you're going to get like Courtland Suttons in your 900 00:46:43,040 --> 00:46:44,920 sample. But like Tyree kill is like a a 901 00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:46,720 fundamentally different type of bat. 902 00:46:46,720 --> 00:46:50,440 Than I just, I'm not as sure that like because he fell off he 903 00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:56,800 it means we're like he has hit this irreversible and very steep 904 00:46:56,800 --> 00:47:00,360 decline that ends, you know, in in him being. 905 00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:04,280 Absolutely, Larry, Larry Fitz, Larry Fitzgerald came back 906 00:47:04,600 --> 00:47:05,960 obviously different style of player. 907 00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:08,920 All right, here I'm going to Crane here, I'm going to share 908 00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:11,480 my. Like a season really, especially 909 00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:14,840 given the context around the Dolphins inability to move the 910 00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:16,920 ball down field. It really wasn't that bad. 911 00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:21,280 But again, if he moves up to the tooth, I kind of hope he moves 912 00:47:21,280 --> 00:47:24,280 up to the tooth return and I can just, you know, stand on well. 913 00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:26,160 He's up there now. He's currently he's currently in 914 00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:27,520 Round 2. Yeah, Yeah. 915 00:47:27,680 --> 00:47:29,800 All right. Well then good then we we agree 916 00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:31,600 at this point. Share This. 917 00:47:31,840 --> 00:47:33,120 Share. This screen, Yeah. 918 00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:40,680 All right, So this is age 3031. From 2010 to now, 115 targets, 919 00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:43,000 900 receiving yards, 5 receiving touchdowns. 920 00:47:43,280 --> 00:47:47,320 Pretty interesting that Tyreek's season from last year is all the 921 00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:49,680 way at the bottom of this list in terms of. 922 00:47:49,680 --> 00:47:51,560 PPR points. Can you just set the filter of 923 00:47:51,680 --> 00:47:55,960 men's plus? Yes, but theoretically if you're 924 00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:59,240 setting the. That's how that works well. 925 00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:03,480 Often times when I run this, I find that these guys are roughly 926 00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:06,600 in the middle of of in terms of PPR points 'cause I didn't set a 927 00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:08,360 PPR point filter. I see. 928 00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:08,760 I see. OK. 929 00:48:09,320 --> 00:48:12,160 So, so generally speaking, when you're doing this, you'd like 930 00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:15,160 him to be in a banded range that's like that. 931 00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:16,960 You can kind of squint and see anything. 932 00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:22,000 I gotta say, my first instinct on looking at this is a little 933 00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:23,840 bearish about Tyreek specifically. 934 00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:26,040 Larry one is that's that's intriguing. 935 00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:29,720 You've got Larry, you've got Devante Adams, you've got you've 936 00:48:29,720 --> 00:48:31,560 got Roddy White. Where? 937 00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:32,480 Where's? Devante. 938 00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:36,080 Oh yeah, He's like up there about 117 points higher. 939 00:48:36,080 --> 00:48:38,920 Yeah, well, I mean, touchdowns obviously are a, are a huge. 940 00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:41,080 You know what? I kind of think Roddy White is 941 00:48:41,080 --> 00:48:43,320 sort of an interesting comparison. 942 00:48:43,400 --> 00:48:45,960 Where What did Roddy White do after that specific season? 943 00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:47,400 I mean, he was awesome. He. 944 00:48:47,400 --> 00:48:49,600 He had counter counterpoint here, guys. 945 00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:52,320 Yeah, yeah. Unicorns are not found in the 946 00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:56,240 zoo. Wow, I don't even know 100% what 947 00:48:56,240 --> 00:48:58,080 that means, but it's a. Definite fault, but it's I don't 948 00:48:58,080 --> 00:48:59,520 know what it means, but it's provocative. 949 00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:02,960 But it's provocative. Again, going, people going, 950 00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:05,160 people are getting going in the chat. 951 00:49:05,160 --> 00:49:08,880 The chat is a light. Yeah, with Dave, that is a bar, 952 00:49:08,880 --> 00:49:10,920 not going to lie. That is, that is a bar. 953 00:49:12,160 --> 00:49:16,040 Now you want to know what a real a real bearish one would be? 954 00:49:16,040 --> 00:49:20,760 Lock it age 30 to age 31. Where like the age Cliff found 955 00:49:20,760 --> 00:49:25,200 him and he did not come back. Yeah, I mean, I, I'm not arguing 956 00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:29,600 the presence of the age Cliff. I think the the way we find the 957 00:49:29,600 --> 00:49:33,360 age Cliff is maybe a slightly different process. 958 00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:37,400 But at this point we agree that it is too risky at the current 959 00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:40,200 ADP. Let's let's attempt to talk 960 00:49:40,200 --> 00:49:45,040 about a second riser here before before it turns 11 my time. 961 00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:49,040 Are you, are you, are you still a complete Jalen waddle hater 962 00:49:49,040 --> 00:49:51,760 Pat or have you, have you opened your mind to? 963 00:49:53,480 --> 00:49:58,360 Yeah, I don't, I just, I guess I really, I don't get the argument 964 00:49:58,360 --> 00:50:01,960 that I'm the the Waddle argument is Tyreek fell off because he's 965 00:50:01,960 --> 00:50:05,440 old and so that's actually good for Waddle. 966 00:50:06,280 --> 00:50:11,640 Waddle fell off because of the offense and not because he was 967 00:50:11,640 --> 00:50:14,720 sort of propped up by the McDaniel shenanigans and the 968 00:50:14,720 --> 00:50:17,720 fact that he was actually worse than Tyree kill last year, who's 969 00:50:17,800 --> 00:50:21,680 an aging receiver and inevitable decline isn't a big deal because 970 00:50:21,800 --> 00:50:24,360 Tyree is going to decline further and Waddle will be fine. 971 00:50:25,080 --> 00:50:26,600 I don't know. I just like, I feel like we're 972 00:50:26,600 --> 00:50:28,360 just like bending ourselves into a pretzel. 973 00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:32,920 Like I to me, it's I think the offense wasn't right last year. 974 00:50:32,920 --> 00:50:35,040 I don't have a lot of confidence that it will be right. 975 00:50:35,240 --> 00:50:38,200 And even with Tyree falling off, Waddle was still worse. 976 00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:41,360 And so he's probably still the wide receiver too, on his own 977 00:50:41,360 --> 00:50:44,640 team in an offense that went from being really exciting to 978 00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:47,480 being kind of scary as far as the wide receiver production 979 00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:49,680 goes. And now that Jon, who's gone, 980 00:50:50,080 --> 00:50:52,760 there's optimism that Waddle, you know, is going to get some 981 00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:55,480 of that, some of the design stuff or it'll just be a bigger 982 00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:59,440 part of the offense and the prices moved up to reflect that. 983 00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:03,320 So no, I, I think we moved Waddle up, but I still find him 984 00:51:03,320 --> 00:51:05,920 to be kind of a tough click. And I honestly hope he continues 985 00:51:05,920 --> 00:51:11,280 to rise because it's sort of the same thinking where I, I, I feel 986 00:51:11,280 --> 00:51:14,120 more, I feel more risk, I think, than you do on Tyreke. 987 00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:17,920 So I would rather just feel confident that he's too 988 00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:21,840 expensive. Yeah, that's, that's fair. 989 00:51:22,200 --> 00:51:24,560 I'm I'm getting a little uncomfortable at this price. 990 00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:28,240 I mean, most of my like slam waddle was back at this like big 991 00:51:28,240 --> 00:51:30,640 board price. Even since BBM it's been in the 992 00:51:30,640 --> 00:51:33,240 mid 5th. It's been a target for me, but 993 00:51:33,240 --> 00:51:37,600 not not a massive 1. I'll say two things. 994 00:51:37,680 --> 00:51:41,360 I mean, well, First off, I can see that like if you're just 995 00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:47,040 trying to do like this is like a formal logic class and you're 996 00:51:47,040 --> 00:51:50,560 like trying to draw the string around the easiest path that 997 00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:54,320 like you're, you're correct that like the the it's a bit of an 998 00:51:54,320 --> 00:51:58,520 inside straight to be like, well, Tyreek was old and the 999 00:51:58,520 --> 00:52:00,880 Waddle's actually like I, I get all that part. 1000 00:52:02,560 --> 00:52:05,080 I I think the logical explanation. 1001 00:52:05,080 --> 00:52:09,160 Yeah, that I I gotta say, I gotta say I'm just like from 1002 00:52:09,160 --> 00:52:13,120 like philosophical hierarchy. I'm not buying being world's 1003 00:52:13,120 --> 00:52:16,360 biggest Jalen Waddle buyer while also simultaneously being like. 1004 00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:19,400 I mean, I think I have like 9% Jalen Waddle, so I would not say 1005 00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:19,920 I'm the. Word. 1006 00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:22,240 Well, I think of you as being the Jalen Waddle. 1007 00:52:22,240 --> 00:52:31,720 Guy But I, I think another explanation to me would just be 1008 00:52:31,720 --> 00:52:35,960 that like everything was kind of broken and so they just focused 1009 00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:39,040 on easier stuff and it was broken because two of us hurt. 1010 00:52:39,040 --> 00:52:40,920 It was broken because Tyreke was not as good. 1011 00:52:40,920 --> 00:52:43,640 It was broken because Waddle was injured like constantly. 1012 00:52:43,680 --> 00:52:46,640 And they just never had any opportunity to like solidify 1013 00:52:46,640 --> 00:52:48,520 around him. And they just started doing 1014 00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:52,200 what's like the easiest thing we can do and that that it was like 1015 00:52:52,200 --> 00:52:55,200 triage offense. And then the other argument that 1016 00:52:55,200 --> 00:52:58,840 I guess I find more persuasive to me personally, but I suspect 1017 00:52:58,840 --> 00:53:01,200 nobody else will find persuasive because it's not neat. 1018 00:53:01,640 --> 00:53:05,160 It's just that like the world works in mysterious ways. 1019 00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:08,600 And I think that more often than not, we like try to overanalyze 1020 00:53:08,600 --> 00:53:11,520 why things happen. And I would rather just take 1021 00:53:11,520 --> 00:53:15,800 like the zoomed out view of the trends without trying to like 1022 00:53:15,800 --> 00:53:19,440 attach a specific reason for each individual circumstance. 1023 00:53:19,440 --> 00:53:21,840 And to me, I'm like looking at it from from a zoomed out view. 1024 00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:27,920 And I'm like Tyreek Hill older player seems to be in in fairly 1025 00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:34,360 substantial decline. Waddle prime age player coming 1026 00:53:34,360 --> 00:53:37,360 off of two straight years, 2.5 yards per outrun. 1027 00:53:38,120 --> 00:53:40,720 Consistently good target owner under multiple coaching Staffs. 1028 00:53:40,720 --> 00:53:43,200 And then what make? Any sense to me that he would be 1029 00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:45,080 bad now? Like I just don't know the 1030 00:53:45,080 --> 00:53:48,160 precedent for it. So I'm just much less concerned 1031 00:53:48,160 --> 00:53:53,360 about his down year than Tyrese. I, I am convinced that, you 1032 00:53:53,360 --> 00:53:57,160 know, last year was, was kind of related to the need to get the 1033 00:53:57,160 --> 00:54:00,400 ball out quickly. And you're hearing again that 2 1034 00:54:00,400 --> 00:54:02,320 is big focus this year is getting the ball out even 1035 00:54:02,320 --> 00:54:04,960 quicker. I do concede, though, that I'm 1036 00:54:04,960 --> 00:54:09,000 making an assumption that that's how it'll work this year and my 1037 00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:12,200 assumptions based on still having to and still not having a 1038 00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:15,120 good offensive line, but that's, that could be totally wrong. 1039 00:54:15,120 --> 00:54:19,640 Like I, I guess what I would say is like, even if I'm right that 1040 00:54:20,120 --> 00:54:22,960 the reason last year's offense look like it did was, was 1041 00:54:22,960 --> 00:54:25,480 because of the like specific personnel stuff that we all feel 1042 00:54:25,480 --> 00:54:28,320 like we observed. And and that is why it doesn't 1043 00:54:28,320 --> 00:54:30,760 mean that it's then going to happen again in 2025 and it 1044 00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:33,880 could return more to to what we saw in 2023. 1045 00:54:35,200 --> 00:54:38,600 That's definitely possible. I guess my, my thing is, I still 1046 00:54:38,600 --> 00:54:41,760 think Tyree could be the primary beneficiary there, but but maybe 1047 00:54:41,760 --> 00:54:43,600 he has fallen off and it's actually Waddle. 1048 00:54:44,120 --> 00:54:47,880 We had a comment here that to me kind of crystallizes like why 1049 00:54:47,880 --> 00:54:52,160 would we bet on on Waddle when you could take like a George 1050 00:54:52,160 --> 00:54:53,240 Picken? Like, if you're going to do a 1051 00:54:53,240 --> 00:54:55,800 double stack of these receivers, why why wouldn't you want to 1052 00:54:55,800 --> 00:55:00,120 have Pickens, who's coming off a very efficient season after 1053 00:55:00,120 --> 00:55:03,200 another very efficient season in 2023, who's never had good 1054 00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:06,200 quarterback play? He's never had an offensive 1055 00:55:06,200 --> 00:55:08,320 coordinator that we really respect at all. 1056 00:55:08,680 --> 00:55:11,920 And now he's moving to, you know, maybe the coaching isn't 1057 00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:14,640 isn't what we want, but he's moving to Dak Prescott and an 1058 00:55:14,640 --> 00:55:16,000 offense that could lean on the past. 1059 00:55:16,080 --> 00:55:18,320 This is a really, really big quarterback upgrade for him. 1060 00:55:18,920 --> 00:55:20,800 And he's a young player who's ascending. 1061 00:55:21,120 --> 00:55:23,200 I don't have to like do this bounce back stuff. 1062 00:55:23,200 --> 00:55:25,800 I can just take a guy who looks to be on the rise. 1063 00:55:25,800 --> 00:55:28,160 There's, there's a lot of opportunity cost here for 1064 00:55:28,160 --> 00:55:29,480 Waddle. Someone was asking about, you 1065 00:55:29,480 --> 00:55:31,960 know, what's the difference between the 5th and the 6th. 1066 00:55:31,960 --> 00:55:34,480 It's the players that you're giving up to take. 1067 00:55:34,480 --> 00:55:38,480 Waddle and I, I, I do think he's moved into a range of guys that 1068 00:55:38,960 --> 00:55:41,760 I would, I just have, I have a harder time clicking him now, 1069 00:55:43,720 --> 00:55:46,800 even with a a slightly improved opinion of of how a season might 1070 00:55:46,800 --> 00:55:50,760 look after the Johnny trade. Yeah, well, I'm, I'm nine 1071 00:55:50,760 --> 00:55:54,920 percent waddle and 24% Pickens. So no, no argument on Pickens. 1072 00:55:55,560 --> 00:55:58,120 All right, let's do Crane, let's do the, let's do the followers. 1073 00:55:58,120 --> 00:56:01,080 We don't need to talk about Kittle Dobbins or or any of 1074 00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:02,640 these guys. We also need to get to the tight 1075 00:56:02,640 --> 00:56:07,560 end discourse before we do last call at at some point 'cause I 1076 00:56:07,560 --> 00:56:09,680 think it is pretty interesting. So we have Janu, that one is 1077 00:56:09,680 --> 00:56:12,680 pretty obvious firing with pretty obvious Barkley is. 1078 00:56:12,680 --> 00:56:14,440 I mean, I don't really think we need to talk about it. 1079 00:56:14,440 --> 00:56:19,880 I think the market is just sort of realizing that the wide 1080 00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:22,080 receivers are better picks we are going to get. 1081 00:56:22,120 --> 00:56:24,720 Slash it's peak slappy. It's it's not maybe not peak 1082 00:56:24,720 --> 00:56:27,880 slappy, but there's it's also up and we're all just. 1083 00:56:28,680 --> 00:56:30,240 It's real. It's real sloppy. 1084 00:56:30,680 --> 00:56:32,360 There's. No one has come into this party 1085 00:56:32,360 --> 00:56:34,800 in about 3 weeks or. Correct. 1086 00:56:34,960 --> 00:56:40,160 And I think Zach has another hours and McBride slide for us 1087 00:56:40,160 --> 00:56:41,880 to do so let's let's do Hunter here. 1088 00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:47,000 How much of this is the slightly bearish quotes from mini camp 1089 00:56:47,000 --> 00:56:49,440 talking about how the team views him as a quarterback first? 1090 00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:51,600 The reason why he was practicing a wide receiver was because I 1091 00:56:51,600 --> 00:56:53,080 think he has more to learn there. 1092 00:56:53,320 --> 00:56:58,280 How much of it is the slappies kind of getting some cold water 1093 00:56:58,280 --> 00:57:00,920 in their face? You know, first the you wake up 1094 00:57:01,480 --> 00:57:03,960 the night after a binge and you're like, Jesus Christ, maybe 1095 00:57:03,960 --> 00:57:05,960 we don't take a defensive back in the fourth round. 1096 00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:12,160 For what it's worth, I actually am taking more Hunter now than I 1097 00:57:12,160 --> 00:57:15,800 was before, where I thought Jacob was being irresponsible 1098 00:57:15,800 --> 00:57:17,840 before. But now that my decisions are 1099 00:57:17,840 --> 00:57:22,600 Courtland Sutton or Travis Hunter or Calvin Ridley or 1100 00:57:22,600 --> 00:57:25,760 Travis Hunter, to me, those are not really decisions. 1101 00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:28,160 I mean, I think you take the guy who just went #2 in the NFL 1102 00:57:28,160 --> 00:57:31,320 draft and then gets comps to like Justin Jefferson. 1103 00:57:31,720 --> 00:57:35,120 Like to me, if he, he feels quite, quite easy. 1104 00:57:35,120 --> 00:57:39,080 And I also want to make a a note here because I have continually 1105 00:57:39,080 --> 00:57:42,000 been getting this everywhere. Brett Jones just said the Bears 1106 00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:43,960 notes for Hunter or the Vegas over underlines. 1107 00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:48,080 If you are drafting you are fantasy football teams to win 1108 00:57:48,080 --> 00:57:52,720 $2,000,000 on underdog fantasy based off of median projections 1109 00:57:53,160 --> 00:57:56,680 from a game that is designed for you to be able to beat it right? 1110 00:57:56,680 --> 00:58:02,040 The higher lowers on underdog. I don't know man, just just go 1111 00:58:02,040 --> 00:58:04,600 put your money in Vanguard or something That is not is not how 1112 00:58:04,600 --> 00:58:07,520 the game. Your goal looking at a median 1113 00:58:07,520 --> 00:58:10,360 projection should be to try and beat that line. 1114 00:58:10,400 --> 00:58:14,200 You should be saying this is something that underdog or 1115 00:58:14,200 --> 00:58:15,480 whatever is is. Not well. 1116 00:58:15,480 --> 00:58:18,440 And also like with with Travis Hunter, you're looking guy with 1117 00:58:18,440 --> 00:58:22,160 a really wide range of outcomes where like there's times where 1118 00:58:22,160 --> 00:58:26,440 he loot where you you don't beat that line by a lot because he's 1119 00:58:26,440 --> 00:58:28,720 a cornerback. There's also times where you 1120 00:58:28,840 --> 00:58:32,400 beat that line by a lot because he plays receiver a bunch and 1121 00:58:32,400 --> 00:58:33,120 he's. Really good. 1122 00:58:33,200 --> 00:58:35,800 He's probably the widest standard deviation of literally 1123 00:58:35,800 --> 00:58:37,800 any player in the pool. Yeah. 1124 00:58:37,880 --> 00:58:40,720 So that's where I would kind of push back on that kind of frame 1125 00:58:40,720 --> 00:58:43,920 is like, hey, that's like literally a different game with 1126 00:58:44,240 --> 00:58:47,080 with different ways to win. Yeah, different you have. 1127 00:58:47,080 --> 00:58:48,880 There's just way different incentives there. 1128 00:58:49,040 --> 00:58:50,800 Yeah, there's extremely different incentives. 1129 00:58:50,800 --> 00:58:53,360 Guys with really wide range of outcomes there aren't aren't 1130 00:58:53,600 --> 00:58:57,200 super helpful where they're actually extremely helpful at 1131 00:58:57,200 --> 00:58:59,800 the right price in a game like WrestleMania. 1132 00:59:00,760 --> 00:59:05,080 Yeah, the hunter thing, I mean his ADP is like not fall. 1133 00:59:06,120 --> 00:59:08,640 It's it's not falling to the degree that the sentiment is 1134 00:59:08,640 --> 00:59:10,040 negative. And I guess that's just a 1135 00:59:10,040 --> 00:59:12,560 function of this game where like, it really only matters 1136 00:59:12,960 --> 00:59:15,440 what the highest person. On the so I was gonna say it's a 1137 00:59:15,440 --> 00:59:17,120 fun, it's a function of this lappies. 1138 00:59:17,480 --> 00:59:19,640 Right. So it's like, yes, like it's, it 1139 00:59:19,640 --> 00:59:22,360 seems like in every draft pod, like especially if you just like 1140 00:59:22,600 --> 00:59:24,480 filter by Twitter that it's like, yeah, there's probably 1141 00:59:24,480 --> 00:59:26,440 nine people in your draft room who. 1142 00:59:26,440 --> 00:59:27,960 Well, yeah, the case would never be in the. 1143 00:59:27,960 --> 00:59:30,400 Travis Hunter, right, Like there's there's people like, I 1144 00:59:30,400 --> 00:59:32,440 mean, there's I was arguing with someone on Twitter yesterday who 1145 00:59:32,440 --> 00:59:36,160 like thinks that Diami Brown is, is like very likely going to 1146 00:59:36,360 --> 00:59:39,280 outscore Travis Hunter. So it's like you're or something 1147 00:59:39,440 --> 00:59:41,400 like that. Or watch Diami Brown play. 1148 00:59:42,160 --> 00:59:43,520 So there are people like that in every room. 1149 00:59:43,520 --> 00:59:46,040 So there's like 8 people who are not even, you know, interested 1150 00:59:46,040 --> 00:59:48,560 in Travis Hunter whatsoever. But like, all that really 1151 00:59:48,560 --> 00:59:51,600 matters is what is what the one person who clicks and thinks. 1152 00:59:51,600 --> 00:59:56,520 And so that's why is ADP will continue to, to stay higher 1153 00:59:56,520 --> 01:00:01,720 despite people's extreme anger at the, at the audacity of, of 1154 01:00:01,720 --> 01:00:04,120 people taking an interest and trying to win a basketball 1155 01:00:04,120 --> 01:00:08,280 tournament. But I would say that I I'm not 1156 01:00:08,280 --> 01:00:11,120 actually taking, I'm not scooping the value as much as I. 1157 01:00:11,640 --> 01:00:14,600 Thought that I would because part of why I was so high on him 1158 01:00:14,600 --> 01:00:16,920 earlier is because there's like no one in the fourth or the 1159 01:00:16,920 --> 01:00:19,640 early 4th that I like have any interest in outside of Marion 1160 01:00:19,640 --> 01:00:22,000 Hampton and Ted McMillan and Travis Hunter. 1161 01:00:22,200 --> 01:00:24,680 Whereas there's like actually more players at the four or five 1162 01:00:24,680 --> 01:00:28,440 turn that I actually just like straight out better than most of 1163 01:00:28,440 --> 01:00:31,440 the players in the early 4th. So like I, I like Pickens better 1164 01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:37,280 than like if you're because the other guys that range outside of 1165 01:00:37,280 --> 01:00:39,200 the elite quarterback. So I have taken more of them, 1166 01:00:40,520 --> 01:00:44,400 but like once Breece goes, I do like Tap and I'm interested in 1167 01:00:44,400 --> 01:00:48,120 Hampton, who's also falling. But like, I don't care at all 1168 01:00:48,120 --> 01:00:50,320 about like James Cook. I don't care all about Kyron. 1169 01:00:50,320 --> 01:00:51,800 I don't really like Worthy, though. 1170 01:00:51,800 --> 01:00:53,960 I've mixed him in. I don't like Jameson at all. 1171 01:00:54,200 --> 01:00:58,120 So it's like I I just take, I prefer George Pickens and Kittle 1172 01:00:58,120 --> 01:01:00,560 and Hertz and Waddle to all of those guys anyhow. 1173 01:01:01,240 --> 01:01:04,920 So I wouldn't say that I'm like scooping him that much more. 1174 01:01:06,360 --> 01:01:09,040 If he gets like if he falls even further and he could ever get to 1175 01:01:09,040 --> 01:01:11,440 like the 5-6 turn, that would be excellent because there's 1176 01:01:11,440 --> 01:01:13,920 literally only two players I ever collected the 5-6 turn. 1177 01:01:13,920 --> 01:01:15,360 It's Trevion, Anderson and Chris Olave. 1178 01:01:15,360 --> 01:01:20,640 It'd be great to have a third. But yeah, it's just, it's been, 1179 01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:23,680 I don't know, I haven't been scooping as much as I had hoped, 1180 01:01:24,080 --> 01:01:26,160 but I I would love him to fall a little because then you could 1181 01:01:26,160 --> 01:01:29,920 even get Thomas in the early 2 and then Hunter in the late 5th. 1182 01:01:29,920 --> 01:01:31,640 If that's the thing you can do more often. 1183 01:01:31,640 --> 01:01:32,760 That would be really, really fun. 1184 01:01:33,840 --> 01:01:36,040 I wonder if that's where we're headed, because that's like 1185 01:01:36,280 --> 01:01:39,240 really fun if you can get that to happen. 1186 01:01:39,640 --> 01:01:43,240 You could also see Thomas, you know, becoming a little bit more 1187 01:01:43,240 --> 01:01:46,240 of a second rounder if his HN moves up. 1188 01:01:47,080 --> 01:01:49,600 And so like, if you're getting Tom at let's say, you know, you 1189 01:01:49,600 --> 01:01:53,920 can kind of more reliably get Thomas at the two O 2, maybe two 1190 01:01:53,920 --> 01:01:58,880 O 3, then you know, hunter doesn't have to fall quite as 1191 01:01:58,880 --> 01:02:01,520 far And and they're like, oh, I want those. 1192 01:02:01,520 --> 01:02:04,440 I I want that Hunter Thomas double stack. 1193 01:02:04,440 --> 01:02:06,200 I don't have to take just hunter without Thomas. 1194 01:02:06,880 --> 01:02:08,520 I don't know, maybe that would be fun. 1195 01:02:09,000 --> 01:02:11,360 I just want this to happen. I'm just wish casting to be 1196 01:02:11,360 --> 01:02:12,640 honest, but. I think it will. 1197 01:02:12,640 --> 01:02:14,160 I mean it. Wouldn't it be great to fall? 1198 01:02:15,520 --> 01:02:19,000 He's continuing to fall. And as we get more and more into 1199 01:02:19,000 --> 01:02:22,760 August, you get more and more non slappies and drafts and like 1200 01:02:22,760 --> 01:02:24,320 the non slappies, like hate this guy. 1201 01:02:24,320 --> 01:02:27,080 I, I, I don't under it's like a psychological thing. 1202 01:02:27,080 --> 01:02:28,640 I don't understand. I don't understand. 1203 01:02:28,640 --> 01:02:30,120 Why they hate them so much? They. 1204 01:02:30,360 --> 01:02:33,440 They talk themselves on players, but anyway, they they. 1205 01:02:33,720 --> 01:02:36,600 Don't they? They hate them so much that they 1206 01:02:36,600 --> 01:02:41,360 have talked themselves into Diami Brown Like just a player 1207 01:02:41,360 --> 01:02:45,000 with basically 0 good results ever. 1208 01:02:45,000 --> 01:02:48,320 Playing He doesn't have 800 yards receiving in four years. 1209 01:02:49,280 --> 01:02:51,760 I'm overweight. Comments like this I just want 1210 01:02:51,760 --> 01:02:53,840 to see if we can get how tilted we can get Jacob here. 1211 01:02:53,840 --> 01:02:55,440 Jaden Reed over Hunter. Easy. 1212 01:02:55,520 --> 01:02:58,840 Yeah, like it doesn't, it doesn't tilt me because like I 1213 01:02:59,960 --> 01:03:03,120 look, I got I was doing research for column that's that's out. 1214 01:03:03,200 --> 01:03:05,440 Well, half of it is out. I'm thinking about thinking and 1215 01:03:05,440 --> 01:03:08,760 I'm looking at like the old rookie prices and like that 1216 01:03:08,760 --> 01:03:10,680 actually tilted me. Like, it tilted me thinking 1217 01:03:10,680 --> 01:03:13,400 like, you know, the best chance that I would ever have to win 1218 01:03:13,400 --> 01:03:16,200 this tournament has already passed because, like, Garrett 1219 01:03:16,200 --> 01:03:19,320 Wilson used to be drafted as wide receiver, 59 as the 10th 1220 01:03:19,320 --> 01:03:21,360 overall pick. But did Garrett Wilson have to 1221 01:03:21,360 --> 01:03:23,040 tackle Jonathan Taylor between offensive? 1222 01:03:23,040 --> 01:03:27,240 Series, but it's so it's like and it tilts me greatly that 1223 01:03:27,240 --> 01:03:30,960 like we no longer live in that era, but like seeing comments 1224 01:03:30,960 --> 01:03:33,640 like this, it's like, Oh good, actually, like there there are 1225 01:03:33,640 --> 01:03:39,400 still people who play this game that like are are just playing 1226 01:03:39,600 --> 01:03:42,960 player props in tournament form. Jacoby Myers over Hunters, are 1227 01:03:42,960 --> 01:03:44,760 you tilted yet? If you guys if. 1228 01:03:44,960 --> 01:03:48,480 You really I really understand like what leads like what are 1229 01:03:48,480 --> 01:03:52,600 the what are the decisions that we make in our lives that lead 1230 01:03:52,600 --> 01:03:56,480 us here to where we're like like that. 1231 01:03:56,480 --> 01:03:57,600 I just don't that. I just. 1232 01:03:57,600 --> 01:03:59,160 Can't. He's getting philosophical. 1233 01:03:59,160 --> 01:04:01,480 We almost got him all right. Dobbs over Hunter. 1234 01:04:01,560 --> 01:04:03,040 Actually, he doesn't believe that one. 1235 01:04:03,040 --> 01:04:05,840 That's just to tilt you. Oh, we got Sky Moore over 1236 01:04:05,840 --> 01:04:07,120 Hunter. That I don't think someone 1237 01:04:07,120 --> 01:04:12,360 believes Scott Moore. That's that's like that's that 1238 01:04:12,440 --> 01:04:15,880 you bluff too much, Sir. Call I I don't think you 1239 01:04:15,880 --> 01:04:18,440 believe. That hunter over Mclaurin. 1240 01:04:18,440 --> 01:04:19,760 Oh, we got a bull. See this. 1241 01:04:19,760 --> 01:04:20,280 Is. I think this is. 1242 01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:22,120 By the way, this is. Why the 80 people die? 1243 01:04:22,640 --> 01:04:25,760 Yeah. I was it's what's really funny 1244 01:04:25,760 --> 01:04:30,000 is these people, the the Hunter has to tackle Jonathan Taylor. 1245 01:04:30,000 --> 01:04:34,080 People like they are doing the reverse of what I said earlier, 1246 01:04:34,080 --> 01:04:36,080 like, oh, that's future Davis's problem. 1247 01:04:36,080 --> 01:04:39,480 Like they're saying like, oh, the fact that Travis Hunter is 1248 01:04:39,480 --> 01:04:42,080 this awesome wide receiver, that's future me's problem. 1249 01:04:42,080 --> 01:04:43,720 Like they're doing, they're doing the reverse. 1250 01:04:43,720 --> 01:04:46,480 Like they're going to have this come to Jesus moment in like 1251 01:04:46,480 --> 01:04:50,240 week 3 when Hunter has like a nine reception, 111 yard 2 1252 01:04:50,240 --> 01:04:54,320 touchdown game and like also has like a great pass breakup on 1253 01:04:54,320 --> 01:04:55,960 defense or something. There's going to have to be 1254 01:04:55,960 --> 01:04:59,560 like, oh, actually fantasy football, particularly top heavy 1255 01:04:59,560 --> 01:05:02,720 tournaments like this are a game of being better at identifying 1256 01:05:03,240 --> 01:05:05,760 outliers. Like if you and if you 1257 01:05:05,960 --> 01:05:11,200 basically, not to say that there even is a skill in identifying 1258 01:05:11,200 --> 01:05:12,640 outliers there, there probably is. 1259 01:05:12,640 --> 01:05:16,600 But if you don't give yourself a chance to draft outliers at all 1260 01:05:16,800 --> 01:05:19,160 and you're just like, yeah, dude, my wide receiver room of 1261 01:05:19,160 --> 01:05:22,800 Jacoby Myers, Darius Slayton, Romeo Dubs, like I'm ready to go 1262 01:05:22,800 --> 01:05:26,640 to war. Basically what you are doing is 1263 01:05:26,640 --> 01:05:30,920 you are saying I'm actually not interested in winning Like I 1264 01:05:30,920 --> 01:05:34,680 just want to advance. Some teams, you know, there's 1265 01:05:34,680 --> 01:05:36,880 two ways to look at we're all going to lose anyways. 1266 01:05:37,400 --> 01:05:40,080 That's the thing. I honestly believe one of that, 1267 01:05:40,080 --> 01:05:44,440 one of those is to be like, look, this is an extremely, 1268 01:05:46,400 --> 01:05:48,400 unimaginably top heavy tournament. 1269 01:05:49,480 --> 01:05:51,600 You know, we shouldn't really be that worried about median 1270 01:05:51,600 --> 01:05:52,840 outcomes. We shouldn't even be worried 1271 01:05:52,840 --> 01:05:54,600 about like 90th percentile outcomes. 1272 01:05:54,600 --> 01:05:58,760 Like it requires like 99th percentile outcomes to win this 1273 01:05:58,760 --> 01:06:01,880 99.99. Not on the player level, on the 1274 01:06:01,880 --> 01:06:06,680 team level. On the team level, but like it's 1275 01:06:06,760 --> 01:06:12,200 it also is a weekly base game and three of the four sections 1276 01:06:12,680 --> 01:06:19,440 are one week scenarios. So like we should be focused on 1277 01:06:20,600 --> 01:06:25,320 specifically targeting who are the players most likely to have 1278 01:06:25,320 --> 01:06:29,160 weekly ceiling in weeks 15 through 17, because that is 75% 1279 01:06:29,160 --> 01:06:33,720 of the stages and that's way higher than 75% of the EV that 1280 01:06:33,720 --> 01:06:39,040 gets calculated in that period. So I, I, I just, I'm not really 1281 01:06:39,040 --> 01:06:44,880 that concerned about like season losing or, or team losing picks 1282 01:06:45,600 --> 01:06:47,920 from that standpoint. But I think you. 1283 01:06:48,000 --> 01:06:50,800 May have answered this question already then, but there's a lot 1284 01:06:50,800 --> 01:06:55,200 of concern in the chat about not just how much he plays on 1285 01:06:55,200 --> 01:06:57,400 offense, but the fact that he's playing on defense, that he's 1286 01:06:57,400 --> 01:06:59,760 going to essential face bigger injury risks. 1287 01:06:59,760 --> 01:07:04,160 Are you handcuffing him at all with with Jerry and Jones or 1288 01:07:04,160 --> 01:07:07,920 tyrant Tyson Campbell? Yeah, that is something to 1289 01:07:07,920 --> 01:07:11,160 consider. But I, I, I actually do, I 1290 01:07:11,160 --> 01:07:12,400 actually think that. There is. 1291 01:07:12,720 --> 01:07:13,680 A. This is a legitimate 1292 01:07:13,680 --> 01:07:16,400 psychological like philosophical point of view that I have. 1293 01:07:16,760 --> 01:07:23,120 Is that like because 99.9% of us will not win that? 1294 01:07:23,120 --> 01:07:26,160 I think a lot of people actually don't try to win, especially in 1295 01:07:26,160 --> 01:07:30,800 the social media age. I think they just draft teams so 1296 01:07:30,800 --> 01:07:32,920 that they can post things on Twitter. 1297 01:07:33,400 --> 01:07:34,600 To. Feel good. 1298 01:07:35,160 --> 01:07:39,040 And like the way to do that is like advance rate I think 1299 01:07:39,040 --> 01:07:41,240 primarily. And so I think people are 1300 01:07:41,240 --> 01:07:43,600 optimizing a lot for advance rate. 1301 01:07:43,600 --> 01:07:47,000 So like feel good and they want to have takes that are are 1302 01:07:47,240 --> 01:07:51,320 right, as in like my player was better than X player and like 1303 01:07:51,600 --> 01:07:56,280 it's pretty it's a pretty good bet to be an anti hunter person 1304 01:07:56,280 --> 01:08:00,520 on that level because like there's obviously like very 1305 01:08:00,520 --> 01:08:04,800 clearly discernible ways where it could fail and like and fail 1306 01:08:04,800 --> 01:08:06,240 big. You could have a take that is 1307 01:08:06,240 --> 01:08:09,880 like insert 13th round wide receiver will actually outsport 1308 01:08:09,880 --> 01:08:16,800 Travis Hunter and like it's like on that level A1V1 bet, you take 1309 01:08:16,800 --> 01:08:19,240 any other 13th round player versus any other fifth round 1310 01:08:19,240 --> 01:08:20,800 player and like your odds are very bad. 1311 01:08:20,800 --> 01:08:23,439 But your odds betting against Hunter with like Romeo Dobbs are 1312 01:08:23,439 --> 01:08:25,760 like actually reasonable. Like it's not that hard to 1313 01:08:25,760 --> 01:08:27,920 envision Romeo Dobbs of scoring Travis Honda this year. 1314 01:08:28,240 --> 01:08:33,240 So like I, I think that it's a, it's a reasonable, it's a 1315 01:08:33,240 --> 01:08:36,560 reasonable way to play it from that point of view. 1316 01:08:38,000 --> 01:08:40,680 This is yeah, this this sums up back it's playing outscores 1317 01:08:40,680 --> 01:08:43,359 Hunter it generally. I agree actually it it genuinely 1318 01:08:43,359 --> 01:08:45,279 wouldn't be surprising that's I agree. 1319 01:08:46,439 --> 01:08:48,720 I'd be pretty surprised. Because that has any impact on 1320 01:08:48,720 --> 01:08:51,200 how I draft personally. But I agree that it wouldn't be 1321 01:08:51,200 --> 01:08:53,439 that surprising. It'd be pretty surprising. 1322 01:08:54,880 --> 01:09:00,399 I here's here's maybe one one way to kind of frame the hunter 1323 01:09:00,399 --> 01:09:02,399 stuff, though, because people are saying like I would take 1324 01:09:02,399 --> 01:09:07,240 golden ahead of him and CBK is now coming after my guy, who I 1325 01:09:07,240 --> 01:09:10,120 didn't even expect to be my guy, but Luther burden Olamiti 1326 01:09:10,120 --> 01:09:12,479 versus. That's not really, oh, oh, I 1327 01:09:12,520 --> 01:09:14,240 read that as a doomsday versus burden. 1328 01:09:14,240 --> 01:09:17,000 And I was like, that's not that hot of a take, but. 1329 01:09:18,520 --> 01:09:20,319 No, it's pretty hot. It's pretty hot take. 1330 01:09:20,920 --> 01:09:22,920 Why do people hate rookies? Like why are there people that 1331 01:09:22,920 --> 01:09:24,800 are convinced that rookies are bad picks? 1332 01:09:24,800 --> 01:09:27,279 Like I I literally had this argument on like sorry I'm. 1333 01:09:27,279 --> 01:09:28,600 Because they've been burned by rookies. 1334 01:09:28,960 --> 01:09:30,840 But like, he's burned. Someone tweeted out yesterday, 1335 01:09:30,880 --> 01:09:33,800 like last week, it was like Marvin Harrison, last year's 1336 01:09:33,800 --> 01:09:35,560 proof that now rookies are overdrafted. 1337 01:09:35,560 --> 01:09:39,399 It's like like literally look at a board from last year after 1338 01:09:39,399 --> 01:09:41,520 Marvin Harrison, Malik Neighbors, good pick. 1339 01:09:42,720 --> 01:09:45,479 Brian Thomas, fantastic pick. One of the best picks in all 1340 01:09:45,479 --> 01:09:46,800 fantasy last year lad. McConnell. 1341 01:09:46,840 --> 01:09:49,880 He went right next to all. Fantasy last year, Brock Bowers, 1342 01:09:49,920 --> 01:09:52,240 like arguably the best pick in all fantasy last week. 1343 01:09:52,600 --> 01:09:54,560 So it's just like Jane Daniels was the best quarterback. 1344 01:09:54,640 --> 01:09:56,600 Like what? What are we doing? 1345 01:09:56,600 --> 01:09:59,400 Like Bucky Irving was one of the best late round picks like every 1346 01:09:59,400 --> 01:10:03,080 single year, even last year, rookies make up an extremely 1347 01:10:03,080 --> 01:10:05,640 disproportionate portion of the big hits. 1348 01:10:06,040 --> 01:10:08,440 And last year if you even just looked at it as like a binary 1349 01:10:08,440 --> 01:10:12,360 good pick, bad pick, they were way more good than bad in the 1350 01:10:12,360 --> 01:10:15,400 early rounds. So like, I don't understand why 1351 01:10:15,400 --> 01:10:19,280 people still have in their mind that like everybody's just over 1352 01:10:19,280 --> 01:10:21,120 hyping the rookies. Happens every year and it's 1353 01:10:21,120 --> 01:10:22,720 like, no, that doesn't happen every. 1354 01:10:22,720 --> 01:10:24,480 Year, the chat. The chat is doing it. 1355 01:10:24,480 --> 01:10:26,240 Literally, the chat is doing it right now. 1356 01:10:26,520 --> 01:10:28,600 Blake Quorum, great pick. What percentage of rookies 1357 01:10:28,600 --> 01:10:31,000 actually meet their draft price? This is just not the mental 1358 01:10:31,000 --> 01:10:32,840 framework to evaluate this tournament. 1359 01:10:34,320 --> 01:10:37,480 Yeah, you need to have teams. Or really any tournament because 1360 01:10:37,520 --> 01:10:39,680 you know, to Jacob's point about needing to hit these really high 1361 01:10:39,680 --> 01:10:41,560 end outcomes, you need to hit it on the team level. 1362 01:10:42,000 --> 01:10:44,760 You need to stack bets that win together, but those bets need to 1363 01:10:44,760 --> 01:10:48,400 win pretty big. So or at least you need to have 1364 01:10:48,400 --> 01:10:52,280 some guys that are crushing ADP paired with dudes who are also 1365 01:10:52,280 --> 01:10:55,880 hits. So I mean, the biggest rookie 1366 01:10:55,880 --> 01:10:59,760 push back that I would accept is like, I've definitely drafted 1367 01:10:59,760 --> 01:11:03,200 teams with too many rookies, you know, and there's and there are 1368 01:11:03,200 --> 01:11:05,960 going to be rookies who absolutely crush us this year 1369 01:11:06,520 --> 01:11:09,760 and are zeros, you know, and I was drafting a bunch of sky 1370 01:11:09,760 --> 01:11:11,320 Moore like I've I've. Guess what? 1371 01:11:11,320 --> 01:11:13,560 There's also going to be There's also going to be a bunch of 1372 01:11:13,600 --> 01:11:15,240 veterans. There's also going to be a bunch 1373 01:11:15,240 --> 01:11:18,920 of veterans who suck ass. Yeah, Well, that's, that's true. 1374 01:11:18,920 --> 01:11:20,800 That's very true. But I I will say rookies. 1375 01:11:20,800 --> 01:11:22,240 Count. Actually, that doesn't count. 1376 01:11:22,520 --> 01:11:25,080 If you draft a veteran who sucks ass, it's actually just a good. 1377 01:11:25,080 --> 01:11:28,240 Pick How did drafting Naji Harris work for you dude? 1378 01:11:28,240 --> 01:11:32,200 Congratulations on your 7% advance rate brother. 1379 01:11:34,600 --> 01:11:38,560 The I mean, there is something to the idea of like a rookie can 1380 01:11:38,560 --> 01:11:44,840 stay healthy, you know, and in the eighth round do nothing like 1381 01:11:44,840 --> 01:11:49,240 Quentin Johnston just being a total, total bust of an eighth 1382 01:11:49,240 --> 01:11:53,000 round pick without getting hurt, you know, and that that really 1383 01:11:53,000 --> 01:11:54,800 hurts. It's it's it's painful. 1384 01:11:54,800 --> 01:11:58,000 Keon Coleman, like just like, well, this team sucks now. 1385 01:11:58,000 --> 01:12:02,960 And it could have been awesome. It it it is painful to to have 1386 01:12:02,960 --> 01:12:06,320 these rookie bus and I so I think they're kind of like, you 1387 01:12:06,320 --> 01:12:08,840 know, a little bit of salt in a dish where you got to figure out 1388 01:12:08,840 --> 01:12:11,600 the right it's the right way to add them to your teams to make 1389 01:12:11,600 --> 01:12:13,760 sure you're not like just taking on an inordinate amount of risk. 1390 01:12:13,760 --> 01:12:17,360 But the idea that like rookies are systemically overpriced, I 1391 01:12:17,360 --> 01:12:19,760 think is really wrong. I agree with you there. 1392 01:12:21,400 --> 01:12:23,640 Yeah. And I think, like the other 1393 01:12:23,640 --> 01:12:26,120 thing is if you don't add any salt to your dish, it's just 1394 01:12:26,120 --> 01:12:28,360 going to be super bland in a tournament where you need you 1395 01:12:28,360 --> 01:12:30,920 need some zest, you need some pop to actually win this thing 1396 01:12:31,840 --> 01:12:34,160 like Luther Burden. I don't know, man. 1397 01:12:34,600 --> 01:12:37,840 That seems like maybe you're like, oh, Garrett Wilson will 1398 01:12:37,840 --> 01:12:41,000 never get another shot at this. Like I don't think. 1399 01:12:41,000 --> 01:12:44,360 I think their ceilings are pretty comparable in year 1 as 1400 01:12:44,400 --> 01:12:47,360 as prospects now long. Term not true. 1401 01:12:47,720 --> 01:12:50,680 I think it is, I think it is I think Luther Burden, given the 1402 01:12:50,680 --> 01:12:54,320 situation that he has, given the the explosiveness that he has as 1403 01:12:54,320 --> 01:12:57,560 a player, given the kind of the pedigree he had headed into last 1404 01:12:57,560 --> 01:13:00,000 year. My concern with Burden are all 1405 01:13:00,000 --> 01:13:02,160 about kind of floor and what's most likely. 1406 01:13:02,160 --> 01:13:04,720 But if you think about like what is what does this guy look like 1407 01:13:04,720 --> 01:13:10,240 at his at the top end in, in an offense with Ben Johnson, with 1408 01:13:10,240 --> 01:13:13,240 a, with an actual quarterback, unlike unlike Garrett Wilson has 1409 01:13:13,280 --> 01:13:17,480 ever had really, then yeah, I think the ceiling's pretty 1410 01:13:17,480 --> 01:13:20,440 close. And he's actually, he's, I 1411 01:13:20,440 --> 01:13:22,080 think, cheaper now than Wilson was going. 1412 01:13:24,440 --> 01:13:26,760 He's not, not quite, but he's he's close. 1413 01:13:27,280 --> 01:13:28,880 He's getting close. He's all in every day. 1414 01:13:28,880 --> 01:13:36,840 Getting close, I I resent that 39th overall pick looser burden 1415 01:13:37,240 --> 01:13:41,640 as the wide receiver 3 on the Bears is the same upside as 10th 1416 01:13:41,640 --> 01:13:43,440 overall pick wide receiver 1 Garrett Wilson. 1417 01:13:43,440 --> 01:13:45,080 But I agree that it's an incredible pick. 1418 01:13:45,640 --> 01:13:48,880 Zach, Zach Wilson is doing a lot of my work for me there, a lot 1419 01:13:48,880 --> 01:13:51,960 of my work. But he was going into year 2 and 1420 01:13:51,960 --> 01:13:54,360 had a pretty similar work year to Caleb, so maybe they're kind 1421 01:13:54,360 --> 01:13:57,080 of the same bet. Actually, yeah, all right, fair 1422 01:13:57,080 --> 01:13:59,320 enough. But it is, it's reminiscent at 1423 01:13:59,320 --> 01:14:01,080 the very least. It's, it's not, it's not the 1424 01:14:01,080 --> 01:14:02,160 same ceiling. I'll give it to you. 1425 01:14:02,160 --> 01:14:05,240 But it's it's it is reminiscent. And it's it's one of those 1426 01:14:05,240 --> 01:14:08,880 things where I'm like, man, I'm not I don't have any more times 1427 01:14:08,880 --> 01:14:12,520 we're going to get a a rookie with this high of upside in like 1428 01:14:12,520 --> 01:14:16,000 the 125 range, you know, like, come on, like you're just 1429 01:14:16,000 --> 01:14:17,800 sitting because he falls too. Like whatever. 1430 01:14:17,920 --> 01:14:20,440 I think his ADP is still in the one teens, but he falls. 1431 01:14:21,720 --> 01:14:24,600 And on DraftKings, you're you're it's like, should I take that's 1432 01:14:24,600 --> 01:14:26,840 where it is? Like people do think Darius 1433 01:14:26,840 --> 01:14:29,280 Slayton is going to go, you know, going to score more points 1434 01:14:29,280 --> 01:14:31,320 than him because he's basically going ahead of him now. 1435 01:14:31,320 --> 01:14:35,200 You know, it's kind of crazy on DraftKings so far, he's falling. 1436 01:14:36,400 --> 01:14:39,880 Yeah, it's pretty wild. He he burden is one of the 1437 01:14:39,880 --> 01:14:41,880 biggest reasons I entered drafts right now for. 1438 01:14:41,920 --> 01:14:45,280 Sure, yeah, Paul, Paul sums up. Could be an awful pick or great 1439 01:14:45,280 --> 01:14:46,520 one. Makes him a good pick and BBM 1440 01:14:46,520 --> 01:14:48,240 just. Like absolutely free expected 1441 01:14:48,240 --> 01:14:49,760 value. Yeah. 1442 01:14:50,160 --> 01:14:54,280 All right, let's go next slide. I don't remember which one it 1443 01:14:54,280 --> 01:14:55,240 is. There we go. 1444 01:14:55,240 --> 01:14:57,680 So this I just thought this was very interesting. 1445 01:14:58,000 --> 01:15:01,600 This is like really anecdotally that I've noticed, which is that 1446 01:15:01,600 --> 01:15:05,960 Bowers McBride are falling a little bit as Kittle craft it. 1447 01:15:06,200 --> 01:15:09,840 It's actually so anecdotally, I just didn't. 1448 01:15:09,840 --> 01:15:13,600 I do not feel that Ninjoku and craft are going later, which is 1449 01:15:13,600 --> 01:15:15,520 funny that they're both negative spots. 1450 01:15:16,240 --> 01:15:18,920 The last couple weeks. I feel like for me in the way 1451 01:15:18,920 --> 01:15:21,280 I've been drafting, they're going a little bit earlier, but 1452 01:15:21,920 --> 01:15:23,440 there there is something going on. 1453 01:15:23,440 --> 01:15:25,200 I've seen Bowers go in the third. 1454 01:15:25,360 --> 01:15:28,840 I've seen him get to pick like 26 before I've seen McBride. 1455 01:15:28,880 --> 01:15:31,400 Go. I've seen McBride go in the 4th 1456 01:15:31,960 --> 01:15:33,800 all. Right, I'm going to be drafting 1457 01:15:33,840 --> 01:15:36,200 after this if you need me. So. 1458 01:15:36,680 --> 01:15:40,080 I'm going to actually go and like lick something with COVID 1459 01:15:40,080 --> 01:15:41,640 so I can't go into work for two weeks. 1460 01:15:41,640 --> 01:15:43,200 So I can just grab fucking. Hours and. 1461 01:15:43,680 --> 01:15:45,680 I and I think. It still works in Canada. 1462 01:15:47,720 --> 01:15:49,360 There's AI. Got to find the spot. 1463 01:15:50,800 --> 01:15:53,000 There's a couple things going on here. 1464 01:15:54,080 --> 01:15:58,800 The first one being I assume big fantasy football is starting to 1465 01:15:58,800 --> 01:16:03,840 beat the negative Bauerstrom and the negative McBride drum. 1466 01:16:03,880 --> 01:16:08,000 And then big fantasy football always about this time of year 1467 01:16:08,000 --> 01:16:11,840 starts to get hip to George Kittle and the the the Super 1468 01:16:11,840 --> 01:16:17,120 bearish iuke stuff as well. I think is is boosting well. 1469 01:16:17,120 --> 01:16:23,960 Kittle Price has just not made sense the entire time, and now 1470 01:16:23,960 --> 01:16:27,360 it is starting to. Yeah, yeah. 1471 01:16:27,400 --> 01:16:28,680 I mean. I like there was just no 1472 01:16:29,400 --> 01:16:31,600 possible reason he ever should have been a fifth round pick. 1473 01:16:31,600 --> 01:16:35,520 He was a fifth round pick last year, a later one but he was 1474 01:16:35,520 --> 01:16:40,800 like a late 5th last year. 5-6 turn pick while McCaffrey was 1475 01:16:40,800 --> 01:16:44,960 going one O 1 and IU can Debo were both going in the second 1476 01:16:44,960 --> 01:16:50,640 round and then he went up like 7 picks in ADP. 1477 01:16:50,960 --> 01:16:54,120 Coming off of his best season in a while actually. 1478 01:16:54,200 --> 01:16:59,280 Certainly no decline while McCaffrey was going at the 1-2 1479 01:16:59,280 --> 01:17:01,720 turn. And then instead of their two 1480 01:17:01,720 --> 01:17:07,000 top wide receivers going both in Round 2, they had a guy going in 1481 01:17:07,000 --> 01:17:10,920 round six, Round 7 and an injured guy going in, I think 1482 01:17:10,920 --> 01:17:13,400 round seven, round 8. So it was like, what? 1483 01:17:14,160 --> 01:17:16,880 That doesn't make any sense. Their defense also got way worse 1484 01:17:17,520 --> 01:17:19,880 and their quarterback played in my opinion the best season he's 1485 01:17:19,880 --> 01:17:22,120 ever played and they passed. More than he had. 1486 01:17:22,160 --> 01:17:25,640 Previously so like Kittle's price has just never made any 1487 01:17:25,640 --> 01:17:29,080 sense till tournament. He he's actually I think it's 1488 01:17:29,080 --> 01:17:30,760 still my highest draft head end out of Bowers. 1489 01:17:32,040 --> 01:17:35,640 So I still think he's a fine pick in the mid 4th actually, 1490 01:17:35,640 --> 01:17:39,000 but just less of like a complete auto pick I guess. 1491 01:17:41,200 --> 01:17:42,720 Yeah, I don't have as much kittle as I like. 1492 01:17:42,720 --> 01:17:45,000 I'm overweight, but I don't have as much as I want because I've 1493 01:17:45,000 --> 01:17:48,920 taken so much, McBride. Well, you guys, you guys were 1494 01:17:48,920 --> 01:17:51,320 ripping on me for doing the double double elite tight end 1495 01:17:51,320 --> 01:17:53,280 move so. I don't. 1496 01:17:53,280 --> 01:17:54,560 Did I RIP on you? I think it's fine. 1497 01:17:55,360 --> 01:17:56,800 McBride's my highest drafted tight end. 1498 01:17:58,040 --> 01:18:00,480 The double elite. Why is your highest drafted 1499 01:18:00,560 --> 01:18:02,800 tight end interesting? It's hard to have. 1500 01:18:02,800 --> 01:18:06,320 I mean, so I have 25% McBride in 20% Bowers. 1501 01:18:07,400 --> 01:18:08,360 So it's not. So I have. 1502 01:18:08,360 --> 01:18:11,280 I only have 8% McBride, but I have exactly those number. 1503 01:18:11,280 --> 01:18:13,920 I have 25% Bowers and I have 23% Kittel. 1504 01:18:14,400 --> 01:18:17,560 I'm an 11% Kittle, so I I played it more from the McBride side. 1505 01:18:17,600 --> 01:18:19,640 I wish I'd played from the Kittle side since he's rising 1506 01:18:19,640 --> 01:18:23,080 and McBride's falling. But McBride, I think even 1507 01:18:23,440 --> 01:18:28,040 McBride to me is just a different type of bet than 1508 01:18:28,120 --> 01:18:31,000 Kittle. And it's like it's easier for me 1509 01:18:31,000 --> 01:18:35,880 to see kind of how week in, week out McBride is, is delivering in 1510 01:18:35,880 --> 01:18:38,760 a way where Kittle has been this elite spike week creator. 1511 01:18:38,760 --> 01:18:43,800 Maybe that changes this year, but you know, he he gives you 1512 01:18:43,800 --> 01:18:46,560 that. It's like him and Bowers give 1513 01:18:46,560 --> 01:18:51,920 you that mix of the elite spike weeks and McBride. 1514 01:18:51,920 --> 01:18:53,520 I think the immediate push back would be what are you talking 1515 01:18:53,520 --> 01:18:54,760 about? He doesn't score touchdowns. 1516 01:18:55,320 --> 01:18:59,440 He plays a ton on play action. He always has the touchdown 1517 01:18:59,440 --> 01:19:02,640 stuff by a number of different measures. 1518 01:19:02,640 --> 01:19:06,360 Looks really fluky that he, that he's not scored touchdowns like 1519 01:19:06,360 --> 01:19:07,360 this. I, I Yeah. 1520 01:19:07,400 --> 01:19:10,280 Dude it's just like 9 straight years of fluky shit for Trey 1521 01:19:10,280 --> 01:19:12,080 McBride. Just crazy. 1522 01:19:12,320 --> 01:19:14,720 It's to me, it's a Davis. Do you want to tell me what he 1523 01:19:14,720 --> 01:19:17,280 was doing nine years ago, Mr. Hyperbolic Dude, I. 1524 01:19:18,360 --> 01:19:20,400 Think I think I actually and. Bride was playing. 1525 01:19:20,400 --> 01:19:22,200 Football as his high school. Stats. 1526 01:19:22,200 --> 01:19:24,760 No, no, I think I did. I think I did look up his high 1527 01:19:24,760 --> 01:19:28,320 school stats. Davis what what filters are you 1528 01:19:28,320 --> 01:19:30,560 putting in right now for highschoolreference.com? 1529 01:19:30,640 --> 01:19:33,960 All right, we got to see if OK, I have, I have Trey McBride's 1530 01:19:33,960 --> 01:19:38,240 Max preps up. Let's let's do let's do a good 1531 01:19:38,240 --> 01:19:39,880 guess. What do we think? 1532 01:19:41,480 --> 01:19:44,680 All right, this actually, this is actually funnier than I could 1533 01:19:44,680 --> 01:19:47,640 possibly imagine. This guess guess the amount of 1534 01:19:47,640 --> 01:19:50,880 touchdowns Trey McBride's senior year of high school before he 1535 01:19:50,880 --> 01:19:54,960 attended Colorado State 3. Funniest funniest possible play 1536 01:19:55,080 --> 01:19:56,600 basketball. He played. 1537 01:19:56,600 --> 01:20:02,360 He played football. OK, if it's funny, I'll guess I 1538 01:20:02,360 --> 01:20:13,320 don't know one. 1. Davis. 1539 01:20:13,560 --> 01:20:16,080 Answer. Davis, that was an incredible 1540 01:20:16,080 --> 01:20:19,440 moment for you to pull up his high school stats and it would 1541 01:20:19,440 --> 01:20:23,640 be 1 touchdown after just ripping out not you said nine 1542 01:20:23,640 --> 01:20:27,880 with with no real no no real idea of what you were getting 1543 01:20:27,880 --> 01:20:31,080 yourself into and then to just jailed out. 1544 01:20:31,720 --> 01:20:33,640 It was just perfect. Well done. 1545 01:20:33,800 --> 01:20:35,880 I think it I by the way, I mean obviously. 1546 01:20:35,920 --> 01:20:37,960 I was seeing exactly what you wanted there. 1547 01:20:39,320 --> 01:20:41,800 Obviously that's like not the way football works. 1548 01:20:41,800 --> 01:20:44,120 And if he scores 10 touchdowns this year, that would just be a 1549 01:20:44,120 --> 01:20:46,480 real regression. Like I'm not actually saying 1550 01:20:46,480 --> 01:20:48,160 that Trey McBride can't score touchdowns. 1551 01:20:48,160 --> 01:20:55,040 But I mean, like, I to me, I think that there is like a very 1552 01:20:55,040 --> 01:21:00,200 real chance that Bowers is the story of the season because if 1553 01:21:00,200 --> 01:21:04,720 you add in the amount of volume he got is like an Amman raw St. 1554 01:21:04,720 --> 01:21:06,480 Brown style. Like basically he's like a 1555 01:21:06,480 --> 01:21:09,600 possession receiver for them last year. 1556 01:21:12,240 --> 01:21:14,960 If you just give him one year and I don't know if it'll ever 1557 01:21:14,960 --> 01:21:16,240 happen. Maybe it'll happen this year, 1558 01:21:16,240 --> 01:21:20,000 maybe it'll never happen. Of a Gronk level touchdown rate 1559 01:21:21,240 --> 01:21:24,040 where he scores a touchdown per game. 1560 01:21:24,440 --> 01:21:27,800 Like I don't think like Bowers is obviously not that level of 1561 01:21:27,800 --> 01:21:32,320 player like Gronk. Gronk is the greatest touchdown 1562 01:21:32,320 --> 01:21:35,400 per game touchdown per target player of all time. 1563 01:21:38,000 --> 01:21:40,920 But any season that it does happen for Bowers where he 1564 01:21:40,920 --> 01:21:44,080 scores that like, I mean, wait, he's third in the NFL and 1565 01:21:44,080 --> 01:21:46,840 targets last year. He he is going to be the story 1566 01:21:46,840 --> 01:21:48,920 of the season. You will you will be excluded 1567 01:21:48,920 --> 01:21:52,600 from winning without him. Gronk, like Gronk, to me, is 1568 01:21:52,600 --> 01:21:57,040 such a more impressive NFL player than Bowers now. 1569 01:21:57,040 --> 01:21:58,680 Or would I ever expect? Bowers to be. 1570 01:21:59,560 --> 01:22:03,600 Basically like a tackle who was also an incredible receiver. 1571 01:22:03,840 --> 01:22:06,280 He's basically like Calvin. He's basically like Calvin 1572 01:22:06,280 --> 01:22:09,600 Johnson, but also if Calvin Johnson was Lane Johnson. 1573 01:22:09,680 --> 01:22:11,040 Best football player of all time. 1574 01:22:11,400 --> 01:22:12,480 Yeah, yeah. No, it truly. 1575 01:22:12,480 --> 01:22:13,920 It's incredible, It's incredible. 1576 01:22:14,240 --> 01:22:19,080 And Bowers is a good enough real tight ends and then a really, 1577 01:22:19,080 --> 01:22:22,000 really good slot receiver basically, which is less 1578 01:22:22,000 --> 01:22:25,360 impressive, but it happens to fit our game extremely well. 1579 01:22:25,880 --> 01:22:29,920 So, you know, can I, can he be of the same kind of fantasy 1580 01:22:30,800 --> 01:22:34,200 producers as these previous elites, Kelsey Gronk? 1581 01:22:34,200 --> 01:22:36,800 Yeah, I think he can. And we're getting him now. 1582 01:22:36,800 --> 01:22:38,840 Falling for some reason. I don't, I don't know why. 1583 01:22:38,840 --> 01:22:42,320 I mean, I've, I've been perplexed with the Bauer stuff 1584 01:22:42,320 --> 01:22:44,760 the whole way. He continues now to fall behind 1585 01:22:44,760 --> 01:22:47,640 guys that he outscored last year. 1586 01:22:48,640 --> 01:22:54,320 So I I'm kind of out of ideas why this is happening. 1587 01:22:54,320 --> 01:22:57,680 I mean, it's just, it's foolish. But I I because because. 1588 01:22:57,680 --> 01:23:00,960 Big, big percent Bowers. I'm going to have a bag and I'm. 1589 01:23:00,960 --> 01:23:05,040 Pretty big fantasy football. Big fantasy football is against 1590 01:23:05,200 --> 01:23:08,520 Bowers and McBride. And I'm going to take more 1591 01:23:08,520 --> 01:23:10,520 McBride. I'm actually really excited 1592 01:23:10,520 --> 01:23:15,640 about how this is gone because I got the great CLV on Kittle and 1593 01:23:15,640 --> 01:23:19,000 now he's moving up so 41. So he's now no longer really in 1594 01:23:19,000 --> 01:23:23,640 the range of I have to pass on McBride because I know Kittle's 1595 01:23:23,640 --> 01:23:24,960 there for me at the four or five turn. 1596 01:23:25,000 --> 01:23:27,200 We no longer know Kittle's there for me at the four or five turn. 1597 01:23:28,600 --> 01:23:30,520 I also part of the reason I wasn't taking so much McBride 1598 01:23:30,520 --> 01:23:32,960 was because at the time, if you get Rice in the early thirds, 1599 01:23:32,960 --> 01:23:35,280 that 2-3 turn, Rice has now moved up solidly ahead of 1600 01:23:35,280 --> 01:23:39,360 McBride. So, so now it's going to be, I 1601 01:23:39,360 --> 01:23:44,080 think just like that second round pick for me like in 60% of 1602 01:23:44,080 --> 01:23:49,640 my, well, I think like 100% of my drafts if like a Chan and 1603 01:23:50,680 --> 01:23:52,200 back group are off the board, like it's just going to be 1604 01:23:52,200 --> 01:23:54,240 Bowers if he's there and McBride if he's not. 1605 01:23:55,960 --> 01:23:59,200 And Rock'n'roll I think is going to be the the plan for the rest 1606 01:23:59,200 --> 01:24:02,200 of the summer. Yeah, it's pretty. 1607 01:24:02,200 --> 01:24:05,320 It's pretty remarkable to me. The Nolan has a comment here. 1608 01:24:05,320 --> 01:24:08,640 Worst case scenario is like a 10% advance rate guy, so almost 1609 01:24:08,640 --> 01:24:10,480 half expected with spike week potential. 1610 01:24:10,480 --> 01:24:12,680 Other cases of the guy you need. I think that's sort of the 1611 01:24:12,680 --> 01:24:15,760 classic like an elite tight end probably hurting your advance 1612 01:24:15,760 --> 01:24:17,720 rates a little bit, but you're getting that spike week 1613 01:24:17,720 --> 01:24:20,920 potential in the playoffs. But like, I mean, anyone can be 1614 01:24:20,920 --> 01:24:23,240 a 10% advance rate guy. We could be wrong. 1615 01:24:23,240 --> 01:24:26,640 Bowers could just not have a good season at all and really 1616 01:24:26,640 --> 01:24:28,800 hurt you. But I don't even think that's 1617 01:24:28,800 --> 01:24:34,240 like the type of bet he is. You know, it's he's he's I 1618 01:24:34,240 --> 01:24:37,520 expect him to be a strong advance rate player even when 1619 01:24:37,520 --> 01:24:41,440 he's not the guy you need because he's going ahead of guys 1620 01:24:41,440 --> 01:24:44,440 he outscored and he's he's coming off an incredibly 1621 01:24:44,440 --> 01:24:48,360 efficient tight end season period. 1622 01:24:48,480 --> 01:24:51,640 And he was a rookie, so we would. 1623 01:24:51,640 --> 01:24:54,120 And then he gets a huge quarterback upgrade, he gets a 1624 01:24:54,120 --> 01:24:57,280 big coaching upgrade. Like everything's kind of 1625 01:24:57,280 --> 01:24:59,280 pointing in the direction that we would expect him to be 1626 01:24:59,280 --> 01:25:01,760 ascending. And yet his ADP is following. 1627 01:25:01,760 --> 01:25:05,960 He's going behind dudes where I don't really see the strong case 1628 01:25:05,960 --> 01:25:08,760 for them to be like better advance rate picks than him. 1629 01:25:09,080 --> 01:25:12,480 Like he, I think he just adds more points to my flex than a 1630 01:25:12,480 --> 01:25:14,480 bunch of the guys that that he's now going behind. 1631 01:25:14,480 --> 01:25:15,880 So. Yeah. 1632 01:25:16,360 --> 01:25:18,600 I, I, I don't, I don't really. I don't know. 1633 01:25:19,240 --> 01:25:23,640 The only compelling thing is that all of tight end is priced 1634 01:25:23,640 --> 01:25:28,040 really weird. So like I I agree. 1635 01:25:28,040 --> 01:25:32,280 I think that Bowers and McBride don't actually require the 1636 01:25:32,280 --> 01:25:35,440 positional scarcity argument to be good picks ADP because I 1637 01:25:35,440 --> 01:25:37,560 think they will just score more points than the players they're 1638 01:25:37,560 --> 01:25:41,840 being drafted around. But that is also true of the 1639 01:25:41,840 --> 01:25:45,920 late tight ends and kind of almost even the mid tight ends. 1640 01:25:46,360 --> 01:25:51,000 The difference to me is that argument is a lot more 1641 01:25:51,000 --> 01:25:53,840 compelling in terms of building, like the highest median 1642 01:25:53,840 --> 01:25:56,440 projecting team. But part of the reason why we 1643 01:25:56,440 --> 01:25:59,200 draft running backs and wide receivers that project worse 1644 01:25:59,200 --> 01:26:02,840 ahead of tight ends from rounds like 10 through 18 is there's 1645 01:26:02,840 --> 01:26:05,600 just wider bands on the running backs and receivers. 1646 01:26:05,840 --> 01:26:07,760 The running backs have a lot of contingent value. 1647 01:26:08,000 --> 01:26:10,760 A lot of those receivers are like young, athletic players who 1648 01:26:10,760 --> 01:26:14,200 in theory can do things that the tight ends just can't. 1649 01:26:14,400 --> 01:26:17,880 So it's like, yeah, it makes sense that Hunter Henry, it will 1650 01:26:17,880 --> 01:26:20,200 be a a higher median that the receivers and running backs 1651 01:26:20,200 --> 01:26:22,240 going around him. But like Hunter Henry's band is 1652 01:26:22,240 --> 01:26:25,240 extremely narrow. Like he, he can only do so much. 1653 01:26:25,240 --> 01:26:28,680 He's Hunter Henry, he's going to have 60 catches for 650 yards 1654 01:26:28,680 --> 01:26:32,720 and six touchdowns or whatever. So to me, like, again, applying 1655 01:26:32,720 --> 01:26:37,440 that tournament lens, the fact that you also get to score 1656 01:26:37,440 --> 01:26:41,120 comparably in the early rounds of tight end where the feeling 1657 01:26:41,120 --> 01:26:43,760 is also similar and the median is also similar. 1658 01:26:44,000 --> 01:26:45,640 It's just so much more compelling. 1659 01:26:46,200 --> 01:26:50,160 And then yeah, I'm I'm OK sacrificing some of the late 1660 01:26:50,440 --> 01:26:52,960 tight ends who score a little bit more because like I don't 1661 01:26:53,560 --> 01:26:59,200 really want to waste three of my late bets on picks that like 1662 01:26:59,240 --> 01:27:04,480 can't be league winning picks because they're like 482 dad 1663 01:27:04,480 --> 01:27:07,080 running tight ends. So I I just think it's like 1664 01:27:07,080 --> 01:27:14,320 projection brain in a game that projections are helpful too, but 1665 01:27:14,320 --> 01:27:16,880 in a game that is not decided by median projections. 1666 01:27:16,880 --> 01:27:20,160 So I just don't think that they're a particularly like that 1667 01:27:20,160 --> 01:27:22,600 should not be our North star for how we play basketball. 1668 01:27:22,600 --> 01:27:25,040 It should be an input. They don't have to be ignored, 1669 01:27:25,360 --> 01:27:28,120 but it shouldn't be like as simple as this. 1670 01:27:28,120 --> 01:27:31,320 These guys project better at this range of the draft, so we 1671 01:27:31,320 --> 01:27:33,240 take them. We have to understand why they 1672 01:27:33,240 --> 01:27:36,000 project better and whether that's helpful to the actual 1673 01:27:36,000 --> 01:27:38,400 game we're playing, which is a weekly one, which is weighted 1674 01:27:38,520 --> 01:27:40,520 end of season and is very ceiling based. 1675 01:27:40,800 --> 01:27:43,000 Yeah. And projection being this is a 1676 01:27:43,760 --> 01:27:46,560 this is what I expected this player to score over the total 1677 01:27:46,560 --> 01:27:49,800 of a season, reflecting kind of the range of outcomes boiled 1678 01:27:49,800 --> 01:27:55,640 down into into one stat line, which, as we just talked about 1679 01:27:55,640 --> 01:27:58,160 with Travis Hunter, stuff is going to hide guys who have the 1680 01:27:58,160 --> 01:28:02,960 really wide range of outcomes, which is pretty important to to 1681 01:28:02,960 --> 01:28:05,960 understand which guys can really, really crush their AD PS 1682 01:28:05,960 --> 01:28:09,120 and which dudes are. Well, this is all you know. 1683 01:28:09,120 --> 01:28:10,480 You're hoping they beat it by a round. 1684 01:28:10,960 --> 01:28:13,800 All of this is kind of window dressing to like the fundamental 1685 01:28:13,800 --> 01:28:17,280 truth of fantasy football that people like me ignore when they 1686 01:28:17,280 --> 01:28:21,640 talk about guys like Jameson Williams, which is that huge 1687 01:28:21,640 --> 01:28:26,080 spikes in scoring, whether it be over the course of a season or 1688 01:28:26,080 --> 01:28:30,720 in a single game are more likely to come the volume than 1689 01:28:30,800 --> 01:28:34,200 efficiency. And none of these players 1690 01:28:34,200 --> 01:28:36,760 highlighted maybe in Joku. I mean, in Joku could actually 1691 01:28:36,760 --> 01:28:40,600 have 140 target season in in some of the scenarios. 1692 01:28:40,600 --> 01:28:46,480 But Bowers is like sort of open to like, I mean, you could just 1693 01:28:46,480 --> 01:28:49,800 leave the NFL in targets, they could lead the NFL in receptions 1694 01:28:49,800 --> 01:28:53,680 and that is like way more likely to give you these crazy spikes 1695 01:28:53,720 --> 01:28:56,040 in season long and single game scoring. 1696 01:28:56,280 --> 01:28:58,960 Then, oh, he just scored a bunch. 1697 01:28:58,960 --> 01:29:01,200 He scored a 70 yard touchdown one week. 1698 01:29:01,200 --> 01:29:04,360 Obviously 70 yard touchdowns are really useful, really valuable. 1699 01:29:04,360 --> 01:29:06,120 You like to have them. You like to draft players who 1700 01:29:06,120 --> 01:29:11,000 can score them, But you know, like, I remember I used to have 1701 01:29:11,000 --> 01:29:14,280 this argument with Leone all the time about guys like Jameson 1702 01:29:14,280 --> 01:29:17,080 Crowder and stuff like it's just like, what's the point? 1703 01:29:17,440 --> 01:29:21,080 And you know, because those guys can just sometimes wake up and 1704 01:29:21,080 --> 01:29:23,760 have an 11 target game. Their ceiling is actually much 1705 01:29:23,760 --> 01:29:26,320 higher than you would think. And like, dude, Bowers could 1706 01:29:26,320 --> 01:29:32,360 have what, a A200 target season if the Raiders are good, 180 1707 01:29:32,360 --> 01:29:35,160 target season if the Raiders offense is OK. 1708 01:29:35,200 --> 01:29:40,920 Like it's it's pretty big. Yeah, people are, there's a lot 1709 01:29:40,920 --> 01:29:44,000 of touchdown push back. It's all you know, it's, it's a 1710 01:29:44,000 --> 01:29:46,200 happy PR site. Touchdowns are so big and that 1711 01:29:47,200 --> 01:29:50,160 does help me kind of understands why there is such. 1712 01:29:50,240 --> 01:29:53,560 A That's a push back. Yeah, I disagree with that 1713 01:29:54,320 --> 01:29:58,000 pretty strongly and think that's not a good way to go, especially 1714 01:29:58,000 --> 01:30:01,680 because both Bowers and McBride show up as positive regression 1715 01:30:01,680 --> 01:30:03,720 candidates from a touchdown perspective. 1716 01:30:03,720 --> 01:30:08,520 So the idea that they're going to score fewer touchdowns, you 1717 01:30:08,520 --> 01:30:12,960 know, then some of these other bets later on, much, much bigger 1718 01:30:12,960 --> 01:30:15,680 target volume, I think is bad bet. 1719 01:30:16,680 --> 01:30:18,240 Got to come in here. Who has more touchdowns in the 1720 01:30:18,240 --> 01:30:19,680 playoffs? Bowers plus McBride versus 1721 01:30:19,680 --> 01:30:21,320 Andrews. I think we're supposed to think 1722 01:30:21,320 --> 01:30:23,560 Andrews there. I think Bowers plus McBride, 1723 01:30:23,560 --> 01:30:26,800 like buy a ton. God don't. 1724 01:30:26,920 --> 01:30:29,840 I don't get. But I guess if you're just 1725 01:30:29,840 --> 01:30:33,440 buying the touchdown numbers from last year, then then it 1726 01:30:33,440 --> 01:30:35,680 starts to become a weaker case for these elite tight ends. 1727 01:30:35,720 --> 01:30:38,760 I am not at all buying the touchdown numbers from last 1728 01:30:38,760 --> 01:30:40,320 year. The McBride one probably 1729 01:30:40,320 --> 01:30:42,560 concerns me a little bit more now that I know he scored one 1730 01:30:42,560 --> 01:30:46,840 touchdown in his senior year. But the Bowers one especially, I 1731 01:30:46,840 --> 01:30:49,840 really I'm like this guy is looking like the engine of his 1732 01:30:49,840 --> 01:30:53,320 offense, a true second year wide receiver type of breakout. 1733 01:30:54,920 --> 01:30:58,520 You know, he's he's he play, he does all the play action stuff. 1734 01:30:58,520 --> 01:31:00,080 He's out there when you need him to be for the tight end. 1735 01:31:00,080 --> 01:31:03,160 There's no red flags around him as a tight end who who would be 1736 01:31:03,640 --> 01:31:08,040 in the kind of an Evan Ingram, Kyle Pitts can't seem to get in 1737 01:31:08,040 --> 01:31:11,400 the end zone type of thing. He plays real tight end and they 1738 01:31:11,400 --> 01:31:14,360 utilize him on the on the types of plays where you typically do 1739 01:31:14,360 --> 01:31:17,160 see the tight end emphasized in the passing game. 1740 01:31:17,320 --> 01:31:19,200 Those kind of roll out plays around the goal line. 1741 01:31:19,240 --> 01:31:21,320 He's on, he's on the field, he's running the routes. 1742 01:31:21,800 --> 01:31:25,040 And, you know, maybe, I don't know, maybe the fact that he had 1743 01:31:25,240 --> 01:31:28,680 horrible quarterback play last year affected the touchdown 1744 01:31:28,680 --> 01:31:30,520 ability. Maybe the, the, the team wasn't 1745 01:31:30,520 --> 01:31:32,480 any good. Like maybe that hurt. 1746 01:31:33,320 --> 01:31:35,760 I, I think the fact that they upgraded the quarterback in the 1747 01:31:35,760 --> 01:31:38,960 coaching is, is pretty important for his, his ability to score 1748 01:31:38,960 --> 01:31:40,680 touchdowns. The fact that they added Genti 1749 01:31:41,360 --> 01:31:44,400 is good because it, it, it should keep kind of the offense 1750 01:31:44,400 --> 01:31:46,200 on track. Like, there's a number of ways 1751 01:31:47,240 --> 01:31:49,760 where Bauer's outlook just looks so much stronger than it did 1752 01:31:49,760 --> 01:31:52,640 last year. And that's on top of him being 1753 01:31:52,640 --> 01:31:55,800 an incredible prospect who just had the best rookie tight end 1754 01:31:55,800 --> 01:31:58,800 season ever. By the way, I do just total. 1755 01:31:58,800 --> 01:32:02,480 Touchdowns as a team last year because their quarterbacks were 1756 01:32:02,480 --> 01:32:04,680 Aidan O'Connell, Gardner Minshew and Des. 1757 01:32:05,040 --> 01:32:09,040 Desmond Ritter I I just There were a couple people in the chat 1758 01:32:09,040 --> 01:32:12,960 who just immediately balked at the idea of him seeing 200 1759 01:32:12,960 --> 01:32:17,000 targets. First off, there have been 8200 1760 01:32:17,000 --> 01:32:20,160 target seasons. All of them took place in 16 1761 01:32:20,160 --> 01:32:23,640 game seasons. Passing volume, obviously like 1762 01:32:23,640 --> 01:32:29,360 all time up in the NFL, even even with rush. 1763 01:32:29,800 --> 01:32:32,600 Basically, I think that is like that's not even his 99th 1764 01:32:32,600 --> 01:32:35,440 percentile. I think it's I, I think, I think 1765 01:32:35,640 --> 01:32:39,320 that's like his 93rd percentile. Like like there are just these 1766 01:32:39,320 --> 01:32:45,240 crazy seasons out there for for Brock Bowers, like Cooper Cup 1767 01:32:45,240 --> 01:32:50,760 has a 191 target season in a in a 16 game season. 1768 01:32:50,920 --> 01:32:52,280 I would just say that we don't need it. 1769 01:32:52,320 --> 01:32:54,400 You know, we we don't even need it, of course. 1770 01:32:54,800 --> 01:33:00,760 I just people, just people, just always people, just always they, 1771 01:33:00,800 --> 01:33:03,520 they think I'm, they think I'm being outlandish when I'm not. 1772 01:33:05,440 --> 01:33:10,000 Bowers last year finished sixth in targets, 30 receptions. 1773 01:33:10,960 --> 01:33:13,400 The league neighbors Garrett Wilson, Justin Jefferson, Drake 1774 01:33:13,400 --> 01:33:17,920 London, Brock Bowers, CD Lamb. And he played two less games, 1775 01:33:17,920 --> 01:33:19,480 but he he he was ahead of CD Lamb. 1776 01:33:19,480 --> 01:33:22,760 He was ahead of Jerry Judy. He's ahead of Amin Ross St. 1777 01:33:22,760 --> 01:33:25,520 Brown. In 17 games, 17 games, they each 1778 01:33:25,520 --> 01:33:29,920 played 17 games. He had 10 more targets than Amin 1779 01:33:29,920 --> 01:33:30,480 Ross St. Brown. 1780 01:33:30,960 --> 01:33:37,160 I don't know, seems like he got a bunch of targets like I guess 1781 01:33:37,160 --> 01:33:40,360 if, if like that's it's helpful for me to understand that I'm 1782 01:33:40,360 --> 01:33:44,680 really just betting on positive touchdown regression for one of 1783 01:33:44,680 --> 01:33:46,800 the all. Your that's literally that's 1784 01:33:46,800 --> 01:33:51,760 literally all it is. It's literally just can he get 1785 01:33:51,800 --> 01:33:55,240 to league average for the amount of yards that he gets, like 1786 01:33:55,240 --> 01:33:57,400 touchdown per yards. Yeah, so I don't have enough 1787 01:33:57,480 --> 01:33:58,000 Bowers. There. 1788 01:33:58,160 --> 01:34:02,400 People I'm I'm too light Bowers. If that's if that really is why 1789 01:34:02,400 --> 01:34:07,000 he's falling, then he's an even better bet than I thought. 1790 01:34:07,520 --> 01:34:12,000 I also think people like just he's he's almost like a victim 1791 01:34:12,000 --> 01:34:18,480 of his own success to me where like the rookies that are kind 1792 01:34:18,480 --> 01:34:22,720 of disappointing, people will constantly be like, yeah, but 1793 01:34:22,720 --> 01:34:24,480 he's going to get a lot better, right? 1794 01:34:24,480 --> 01:34:26,840 Like, and I'm not, I'm not even saying these guys are bad picks 1795 01:34:26,840 --> 01:34:29,080 or anything or that we shouldn't be projecting progression. 1796 01:34:29,080 --> 01:34:31,200 I think we clearly should be projecting progression. 1797 01:34:31,720 --> 01:34:33,840 But like you bring out Marvin Harrison, everybody. 1798 01:34:33,840 --> 01:34:35,320 So he's going to take a big step here too. 1799 01:34:36,040 --> 01:34:37,760 You bring up Roma Dunes, it's like he's going to take a big 1800 01:34:37,760 --> 01:34:40,280 step here too. Heck, you bring up Jameson 1801 01:34:40,280 --> 01:34:42,880 Williams, people be like, look, he last year was his first full 1802 01:34:42,880 --> 01:34:44,120 year. You know, going into Year 4, 1803 01:34:44,120 --> 01:34:45,280 that's going to be a big breakout. 1804 01:34:45,760 --> 01:34:49,000 Then you bring up Bowers and it's like, I don't know, man. 1805 01:34:49,000 --> 01:34:51,440 Like, I don't know if he can match what he did last year. 1806 01:34:51,440 --> 01:34:53,880 He ran a lot of routes and like, yeah, maybe the quarterbacks are 1807 01:34:53,880 --> 01:34:55,280 a little bit better. But like, if he only does what 1808 01:34:55,280 --> 01:34:56,840 he did last year, it's not going to be a very good pick. 1809 01:34:56,840 --> 01:35:00,480 Like, like the idea that Bowers will just get better as a player 1810 01:35:00,880 --> 01:35:04,160 this year is like not even something that people are are 1811 01:35:04,160 --> 01:35:07,760 willing to consider because I guess he was already so good. 1812 01:35:08,520 --> 01:35:12,320 Yeah, that it's like the idea of progression from him is like, 1813 01:35:12,520 --> 01:35:13,920 like people won't even consider it. 1814 01:35:13,920 --> 01:35:15,600 People. It's like, well, this is what he 1815 01:35:15,600 --> 01:35:17,880 was last year. And I guess we can say like 1816 01:35:17,880 --> 01:35:20,560 quarterback efficiency up, touchdowns up, volume down, 1817 01:35:20,560 --> 01:35:24,480 whatever. But like, why can't he just get 1818 01:35:24,480 --> 01:35:25,920 better? He's 21. 1819 01:35:26,080 --> 01:35:28,400 He's gotten better every year of his life. 1820 01:35:28,520 --> 01:35:30,280 He's probably going to continue to get a lot better. 1821 01:35:30,560 --> 01:35:33,040 He has less room to grow, obviously, than players who are 1822 01:35:33,040 --> 01:35:36,960 worse than him. But like he, we should still be 1823 01:35:36,960 --> 01:35:41,160 projecting progression from him. We saw that from other players, 1824 01:35:41,160 --> 01:35:43,960 like Jamar Chase is a lot better now than he was as a rookie. 1825 01:35:43,960 --> 01:35:47,080 Justin Jefferson's better now. CD Lamb, CD Lamb, CD Lamb. 1826 01:35:47,360 --> 01:35:50,800 People used to call people used to call CD Lamb Beta Lamb. 1827 01:35:50,800 --> 01:35:52,600 They say, oh, he can only play out of the slot. 1828 01:35:52,840 --> 01:35:56,520 Brock Bowers, at 17 years old, led the national champion 1829 01:35:56,520 --> 01:36:00,760 Georgia Bulldogs in touchdowns, yards and and receptions. 1830 01:36:01,040 --> 01:36:05,240 But it's it's certainly impossible that he'll ever get 1831 01:36:05,240 --> 01:36:10,680 better. Do we have another slide? 1832 01:36:10,840 --> 01:36:16,600 Is that it? Let me let me one last thing on. 1833 01:36:16,920 --> 01:36:19,360 One last thing. One last thing is that we're now 1834 01:36:19,360 --> 01:36:21,160 getting to the point where, like, to Jacob's point about 1835 01:36:21,160 --> 01:36:24,880 rookies getting better, we're getting to the point where if 1836 01:36:24,880 --> 01:36:28,520 Bowers is falling to the third, which is insane to me, that 1837 01:36:28,520 --> 01:36:31,800 means he might be going behind Marvin Harrison, a player who 1838 01:36:31,800 --> 01:36:34,600 was far less efficient than we were hoping last year, a player 1839 01:36:34,600 --> 01:36:37,760 who failed to hit 900 yards right like. 1840 01:36:38,400 --> 01:36:40,640 I'm I'm blind buying Marvin Harrison too. 1841 01:36:40,920 --> 01:36:42,640 I'm not, I'm not like a different show. 1842 01:36:42,640 --> 01:36:44,440 I think it's not. Reasonable, but it's. 1843 01:36:44,840 --> 01:36:48,160 Yeah, Bowers had 112 receptions last year. 1844 01:36:48,160 --> 01:36:51,640 Harrison had 62. Harrison probably had fewer 1845 01:36:51,640 --> 01:36:53,480 targets than Bowers had receptions, I bet. 1846 01:36:54,320 --> 01:36:57,480 Harrison had 114 targets and Bowers had a. 100. 1847 01:36:57,480 --> 01:37:02,760 And 12 receptions, yeah. So just barely cleared the 1848 01:37:02,760 --> 01:37:03,440 targets. Yeah. 1849 01:37:03,440 --> 01:37:09,880 Over receptions, 885 yards to Bowers, 1194, the spot he got 1850 01:37:09,880 --> 01:37:11,640 him, he picked them on the touchdowns. 1851 01:37:12,040 --> 01:37:13,920 He's got 8. Bowers had five. 1852 01:37:13,920 --> 01:37:16,640 So that's. But also, Marvin Harrison got a 1853 01:37:16,640 --> 01:37:18,760 big quarterback upgrade and a big OS. 1854 01:37:18,960 --> 01:37:20,800 Oh, wait, no, he he's actually the same. 1855 01:37:20,880 --> 01:37:24,600 But Bowers, all right. Status quo situation versus 1856 01:37:24,600 --> 01:37:30,240 major upgrades and someone took Marvin Harrison ahead of Brock 1857 01:37:30,240 --> 01:37:31,560 Powers. That's happened in the 1858 01:37:31,560 --> 01:37:32,640 tournament. Why? 1859 01:37:33,160 --> 01:37:36,480 I don't I mean both these guys are kind of high, high end 1860 01:37:36,480 --> 01:37:38,520 prospects for their position, but one of them's coming off 1861 01:37:38,520 --> 01:37:40,400 this incredible rookie year gets all these upgrades. 1862 01:37:40,840 --> 01:37:43,200 The other dudes status quo after a disappointing rookie year. 1863 01:37:43,240 --> 01:37:45,360 I'm not out on Harrison. I do take some Harrison, but 1864 01:37:46,200 --> 01:37:48,600 that just does not make any sense to me. 1865 01:37:48,600 --> 01:37:52,720 It I just I guess 3 touchdowns are enough to to flip all the 1866 01:37:52,720 --> 01:37:56,720 other evidence. I don't get it. 1867 01:37:57,720 --> 01:38:01,600 Anyway, let's move on I. Think we have one more, one more 1868 01:38:01,600 --> 01:38:05,680 slide. I got nothing. 1869 01:38:05,680 --> 01:38:08,720 I got nothing to say about this other than that people are 1870 01:38:08,720 --> 01:38:12,800 finally woke. Jacob, I, I read your piece and 1871 01:38:12,800 --> 01:38:14,240 I thought it was very interesting. 1872 01:38:14,240 --> 01:38:16,800 Couldn't have disagreed more with your conclusion. 1873 01:38:17,760 --> 01:38:22,080 But I, I liked the attempt that you used to get there on, on CMC 1874 01:38:22,080 --> 01:38:25,640 because I mean, I guess we could just do this very quickly. 1875 01:38:26,840 --> 01:38:30,160 If CMC is active in week 17, he's going to be projected for 1876 01:38:30,160 --> 01:38:32,040 the most points of any skill position player. 1877 01:38:32,040 --> 01:38:36,040 We just disagree on the likelihood of him achieving. 1878 01:38:36,040 --> 01:38:38,800 We just disagree on the likelihood of him achieving that 1879 01:38:38,800 --> 01:38:42,440 Week 17 activity. Effectively, I don't even know 1880 01:38:42,440 --> 01:38:44,040 if we'd disagree on the likelihood. 1881 01:38:44,400 --> 01:38:46,240 It's just to me, it's just like a game. 1882 01:38:48,200 --> 01:38:49,800 It's just like a tournament format thing. 1883 01:38:50,000 --> 01:38:52,800 Like I in the main event, I will be very into Christian McCaffrey 1884 01:38:52,800 --> 01:38:55,400 at this price. But in in basketball Mania 1885 01:38:55,400 --> 01:38:59,000 specifically, because so much of it is weekly. 1886 01:38:59,720 --> 01:39:04,400 I care a lot less about that. Like the argument of he has the 1887 01:39:04,400 --> 01:39:07,760 highest season long ceiling and he will project for the most 1888 01:39:07,760 --> 01:39:13,120 points each week if he's healthy is like considerably more 1889 01:39:13,120 --> 01:39:17,960 persuasive to me in a standard redraft league and slightly 1890 01:39:17,960 --> 01:39:20,160 less, but still very, very persuasive to me in the main 1891 01:39:20,160 --> 01:39:22,520 event. And then another tier of less 1892 01:39:22,520 --> 01:39:27,880 persuasive to me in basketball mania where I don't need to beat 1893 01:39:27,880 --> 01:39:31,120 Christian McCaffrey all year long if he's healthy, I just 1894 01:39:31,120 --> 01:39:35,120 need to beat him in one week. And even if he projects better, 1895 01:39:35,280 --> 01:39:38,240 my odds are still pretty reasonable of doing that with 1896 01:39:38,800 --> 01:39:44,400 insert other first round pick. So I I find that his floor 1897 01:39:44,440 --> 01:39:47,720 remains very low relative to other first round picks due to 1898 01:39:47,720 --> 01:39:50,000 injury concerns. Hey man, you can't. 1899 01:39:50,040 --> 01:39:51,360 Even prove we're going to be. Alive. 1900 01:39:51,360 --> 01:39:53,480 You can't even prove we're going to be alive tomorrow. 1901 01:39:53,480 --> 01:39:57,760 And the famous words I can't. Kyle Shannon, I certainly can't 1902 01:39:57,760 --> 01:39:59,360 prove that. Yeah. 1903 01:39:59,360 --> 01:40:02,520 I mean, I'm glad that I got in some of him early. 1904 01:40:03,840 --> 01:40:06,360 I mean also funny enough, that's the first time I've drafted 1905 01:40:06,360 --> 01:40:08,680 literally a single share of Christian McCaffrey in like 3 1906 01:40:08,680 --> 01:40:09,200 years. So. 1907 01:40:10,440 --> 01:40:12,760 But yeah, it's tough. I'm not. 1908 01:40:12,760 --> 01:40:14,440 I won't be clicking in the rest of the summer for sure. 1909 01:40:17,000 --> 01:40:21,280 Yeah, I mean, the the floor on McCaffrey does make him harder 1910 01:40:21,280 --> 01:40:25,680 to click in in BBMI think cuz they're all these guys do have 1911 01:40:26,520 --> 01:40:29,160 really high ceilings, you know, and the receivers in that range 1912 01:40:29,160 --> 01:40:34,280 are really good picks. So I've definitely taken Les 1913 01:40:34,280 --> 01:40:38,520 McCaffrey. Like I tend to break ties 1914 01:40:38,520 --> 01:40:41,360 towards the receiver there as he's as he's moved up, he's 1915 01:40:41,720 --> 01:40:44,600 definitely a harder click. He seems kind of like he's going 1916 01:40:44,600 --> 01:40:47,760 to flip Puka. And at that point, I think I'm 1917 01:40:47,760 --> 01:40:50,280 out. Like, I just want Puka every 1918 01:40:50,280 --> 01:40:54,960 time over McCaffrey. I mean, Puka is going to project 1919 01:40:55,040 --> 01:40:57,360 really well, too. And then he weeks, you know, 1920 01:40:57,360 --> 01:41:00,440 that he's healthy. And I think the way the rest of 1921 01:41:00,440 --> 01:41:05,800 the landscape breaks down, Puka's what I can't get later as 1922 01:41:05,800 --> 01:41:10,000 far as, you know, having a guy who's who's just crushing at 1923 01:41:10,000 --> 01:41:11,960 wide receiver, wide receiver kind of dries up. 1924 01:41:12,200 --> 01:41:15,840 OK, I I have AI have a hot take. I'm going to leave. 1925 01:41:16,040 --> 01:41:17,960 Well, actually, you know what? I'm not even going to say it. 1926 01:41:18,160 --> 01:41:20,480 It's too It's too dark to even say it. 1927 01:41:21,000 --> 01:41:22,680 Adams outscores puka. Is that where you're going? 1928 01:41:23,240 --> 01:41:26,720 No, I was gonna go. I was gonna go with puka. 1929 01:41:26,800 --> 01:41:29,440 Nikua could be a literal generational. 1930 01:41:29,440 --> 01:41:31,280 Remember that guy? Because his body just isn't 1931 01:41:31,280 --> 01:41:34,200 built to hold up to professional football. 1932 01:41:35,680 --> 01:41:38,120 He's missed every every year. He's played organized football. 1933 01:41:38,120 --> 01:41:39,800 He's missed multiple games with an injury. 1934 01:41:40,720 --> 01:41:44,960 Well, how many games did he miss in a senior year high school? 1935 01:41:46,240 --> 01:41:47,760 I'm not. I'm not even shitting you. 1936 01:41:47,760 --> 01:41:50,800 Literally most of it. You're you're definitely not 1937 01:41:50,800 --> 01:41:54,600 allowed to flood other players injury profiles when bull 1938 01:41:54,600 --> 01:41:57,560 posting for Christian McCaffrey. I could do. 1939 01:41:57,640 --> 01:41:58,640 I could do. I could do what? 1940 01:41:58,640 --> 01:42:01,640 You're not, you're not allowed to be like I will take Christian 1941 01:42:01,640 --> 01:42:04,280 McCaffrey over X because X is injury prone. 1942 01:42:04,280 --> 01:42:07,360 Like if injury prone has any meaning, which is probably still 1943 01:42:07,360 --> 01:42:09,920 a matter for debate. It like has to apply to the guy 1944 01:42:09,920 --> 01:42:13,080 who has played one week 17 in the last five years. 1945 01:42:13,480 --> 01:42:17,400 Hey man, I can play and say and do whatever I. 1946 01:42:17,440 --> 01:42:19,720 Want well, the thing about the injury, we're prone, prone 1947 01:42:19,720 --> 01:42:23,720 people is that like there's no we never we don't ever seem to 1948 01:42:23,720 --> 01:42:27,240 like review the history books on like who has been injury prone 1949 01:42:27,240 --> 01:42:29,600 and isn't anymore. Remember when Kittle was injury 1950 01:42:29,600 --> 01:42:32,280 prone? Remember when my the funniest 1951 01:42:32,280 --> 01:42:35,040 one was Matt Stafford got this Rep as injury. 1952 01:42:35,040 --> 01:42:36,240 Prone. Stafford was injury prone. 1953 01:42:36,560 --> 01:42:39,720 Because he played through a torn labrum, he never even missed 1954 01:42:39,720 --> 01:42:41,400 time. He played through a torn labrum 1955 01:42:41,400 --> 01:42:42,920 and people said he was injury prone. 1956 01:42:44,400 --> 01:42:45,680 It just, it gets applied to guys. 1957 01:42:45,920 --> 01:42:48,520 I mean, look, if you suffer a bunch of like lower leg 1958 01:42:48,520 --> 01:42:50,360 injuries, it's probably more likely that you'll suffer 1959 01:42:50,360 --> 01:42:51,760 another lower leg injury. Whatever. 1960 01:42:51,760 --> 01:42:54,960 I'm not a doctor. There's probably some, you know, 1961 01:42:55,200 --> 01:42:59,840 kind of compensatory injuries and all that stuff, but like it 1962 01:42:59,920 --> 01:43:02,080 we just apply it Will and Neil and a guy gets hurt, it's like, 1963 01:43:02,080 --> 01:43:03,440 ah, his injury probably got hurt twice. 1964 01:43:03,440 --> 01:43:06,640 He's injury prone now and then we just like take we quietly go 1965 01:43:06,640 --> 01:43:08,080 at the end of the season and take it off. 1966 01:43:08,080 --> 01:43:10,680 The guys who didn't get hurt that year, we we just didn't 1967 01:43:10,680 --> 01:43:14,440 have injury prone again. It's absolutely ridiculous 1968 01:43:14,440 --> 01:43:15,560 behavior. Yeah. 1969 01:43:15,560 --> 01:43:17,720 So I'm not buying into the puka injury prone thing. 1970 01:43:17,720 --> 01:43:19,160 I'm. Not what I'm buying into he. 1971 01:43:19,560 --> 01:43:21,640 Had 3.59 yards per hour run last year. 1972 01:43:21,800 --> 01:43:25,200 This dude is insane. He had 2.59 as a rookie and and 1973 01:43:25,200 --> 01:43:28,960 leveled up in his second season in a massive way. 1974 01:43:29,640 --> 01:43:31,320 He's every bit as good as Chase and Jefferson. 1975 01:43:31,320 --> 01:43:33,840 He's honestly like a lot better than CD Lamb and people should 1976 01:43:33,840 --> 01:43:36,120 just admit that. Yeah, I'm. 1977 01:43:36,400 --> 01:43:38,560 I'm not fading puka. I refuse. 1978 01:43:39,280 --> 01:43:43,360 I think the the first round is now approaching like an 1979 01:43:43,360 --> 01:43:48,560 equilibrium where the players are being drafted in the correct 1980 01:43:48,560 --> 01:43:52,280 order, both in terms of like projected points and weighing 1981 01:43:52,280 --> 01:43:55,520 in. You know who is most likely to 1982 01:43:56,480 --> 01:43:58,440 to succeed? Like like to the point that I 1983 01:43:58,920 --> 01:44:02,560 don't think I need to take any stances on first round players 1984 01:44:02,560 --> 01:44:04,760 at this point. You you know what I yearn for 1985 01:44:04,760 --> 01:44:08,920 even more than why does your 59 Garrett Wilson is like 110 1986 01:44:08,920 --> 01:44:13,320 Kenyon Drake like, yeah, just like a player in this first 1987 01:44:13,320 --> 01:44:16,120 round who was in the Big bird costume. 1988 01:44:16,480 --> 01:44:19,760 Like I like why couldn't we have like one O 9 Chase Brown or. 1989 01:44:19,760 --> 01:44:22,280 Something What the heck is a polar bear doing in Arlington? 1990 01:44:22,280 --> 01:44:23,280 And then just like what? What? 1991 01:44:23,520 --> 01:44:24,560 Draft all? Joe Mixon. 1992 01:44:24,920 --> 01:44:27,920 Players, right, like why? Why can't we have that? 1993 01:44:28,040 --> 01:44:30,720 But like we don't. So it's like unfortunately, 1994 01:44:31,960 --> 01:44:35,600 like, you know, the Chase Brown is priced in a range that I 1995 01:44:35,600 --> 01:44:37,640 actually don't mind drafting Chase Brown. 1996 01:44:37,760 --> 01:44:41,320 And then I also like every single player in the first round 1997 01:44:41,320 --> 01:44:43,480 is is good. Like the players that I'm fading 1998 01:44:43,480 --> 01:44:49,720 in the first round relative to ADP right now are Barkley, 1999 01:44:50,000 --> 01:44:53,800 although less so now that he's been flipped by Dijon, McCaffrey 2000 01:44:53,800 --> 01:44:56,240 and Almond Raw. But like, I can't really say 2001 01:44:56,240 --> 01:44:59,600 that any of those are bad picks. It's just that like there's 2002 01:44:59,600 --> 01:45:01,280 other picks that I think are such good picks. 2003 01:45:01,280 --> 01:45:04,960 I need to get over 8% some of them so I'm I'm picking the ones 2004 01:45:04,960 --> 01:45:07,480 that I'm least entice by. But like, I think every single 2005 01:45:07,520 --> 01:45:09,200 first round pick is totally justifiable. 2006 01:45:10,040 --> 01:45:12,920 Yeah. All right, Let's go to. 2007 01:45:13,360 --> 01:45:17,440 Let's go to last call all. Right, I got to figure out. 2008 01:45:17,440 --> 01:45:19,880 Let's go all. Right Shope. 2009 01:45:20,360 --> 01:45:24,600 Shope did not leave us a pick in absentia. 2010 01:45:24,600 --> 01:45:29,360 I'm sorry, Jeff and Chisholm. Well, I wonder if just like game 2011 01:45:29,360 --> 01:45:33,880 theory wise, if I need to find a quarterback who is worth taking 2012 01:45:35,280 --> 01:45:37,880 'cause there's a limited number of those guys who can 2013 01:45:37,880 --> 01:45:41,760 theoretically get points. You already took Chadur which 2014 01:45:41,760 --> 01:45:44,000 is. Kind of that Aaron Rodgers, How 2015 01:45:44,040 --> 01:45:45,480 you? Look that Aaron, honestly, the 2016 01:45:45,480 --> 01:45:47,320 Aaron Rodgers pick is is so. Big. 2017 01:45:49,000 --> 01:45:54,320 You know what this one is, is not like particularly useful. 2018 01:45:55,280 --> 01:45:58,000 Well, I like, I got to check one guy's ADP to see if he's not 2019 01:45:58,000 --> 01:46:00,120 quite there yet. You know what I I'm going to, 2020 01:46:00,640 --> 01:46:03,440 I'm going to take Flacco. I'm going to take, I'm going to 2021 01:46:03,440 --> 01:46:07,480 take Joseph Flacco because I am really weak at quarterback 2022 01:46:07,520 --> 01:46:11,440 compared to Jacob and I think Pat will have dart. 2023 01:46:11,720 --> 01:46:15,520 I, I'm like, I'm like dad at quarterback actually compared to 2024 01:46:15,520 --> 01:46:16,960 you guys. So I just need, I need some 2025 01:46:16,960 --> 01:46:18,920 theoretical points. So I'm going to take, I'm going 2026 01:46:18,920 --> 01:46:28,000 to take Flacco, Jacob. Well, I got I got lucky last 2027 01:46:28,200 --> 01:46:30,640 week with the wheel of names Darren Waller, so I can go last, 2028 01:46:30,640 --> 01:46:33,080 Pat can go ahead of me. God, that's so true. 2029 01:46:37,280 --> 01:46:40,520 You're you're muted, Pat. Think you turned your microphone 2030 01:46:40,520 --> 01:46:41,920 off? I did. 2031 01:46:41,920 --> 01:46:43,040 Thank you. You did? 2032 01:46:44,600 --> 01:46:48,720 I'll take Dylan Gabriel. Yeah, that was what I was going 2033 01:46:48,720 --> 01:46:50,080 to do if you didn't do it. For sure. 2034 01:46:50,080 --> 01:46:51,720 Really. How many? 2035 01:46:52,000 --> 01:46:53,160 How? Many rounds? 2036 01:46:53,520 --> 01:46:55,200 How many? How many? 2037 01:46:55,360 --> 01:46:59,320 Rounds shut this game down. Yeah, I was looking at it. 2038 01:46:59,480 --> 01:47:02,320 I was like, I was like, for sure, the Week 17 quarter. 2039 01:47:02,320 --> 01:47:04,520 I mean, Joe Falco's the worst pick in the history of the last 2040 01:47:04,520 --> 01:47:05,960 call. He has a 0% chance to be 2041 01:47:05,960 --> 01:47:09,680 starting Week 17. I was like Shiner and Dylan 2042 01:47:09,680 --> 01:47:12,440 Gabriel, like if I have them both, I have I have 2 1/2 2043 01:47:12,440 --> 01:47:16,880 quarterbacks because I have Rogers, I have I have the Browns 2044 01:47:16,880 --> 01:47:20,560 quarterback locked down and then I have Richardson's 50% chance I 2045 01:47:20,560 --> 01:47:22,600 was going to be in the driver's seat. 2046 01:47:23,000 --> 01:47:24,960 Pat did it. Sharp pick. 2047 01:47:26,280 --> 01:47:28,400 Thank you, thank you. I never thought I'd be 2048 01:47:28,400 --> 01:47:32,400 congratulated for taking Dylan Gabriel in a fantasy base. 2049 01:47:32,400 --> 01:47:35,640 Yeah, Jacob. Jacob is Jacob's team is crazy. 2050 01:47:35,840 --> 01:47:37,560 Jacob is is Jacob. Is gonna win. 2051 01:47:37,800 --> 01:47:40,800 Jacob is gonna win for sure. Let's let's not put the cart 2052 01:47:40,800 --> 01:47:45,880 before the horse, all right? Dylan Gabriel was the best pick 2053 01:47:45,880 --> 01:47:50,680 by far, but my backup is another Browns player named Dylan. 2054 01:47:51,240 --> 01:47:53,200 Recently fallen into the two hundreds. 2055 01:47:53,200 --> 01:47:55,200 I'll take Dylan Sampson. Wow. 2056 01:47:55,800 --> 01:47:57,400 That is a good. Pick Wait, I thought we already 2057 01:47:57,400 --> 01:47:59,120 had Dylan Sampson. Didn't we pick him last? 2058 01:47:59,320 --> 01:48:01,760 Pretty sure he's. Never been in the two hundreds. 2059 01:48:01,880 --> 01:48:04,320 This is the first time he's. Pretty sure he was drafted 2060 01:48:04,320 --> 01:48:06,320 because I almost took him. Damn, not on the sheet. 2061 01:48:07,200 --> 01:48:09,440 Not on the sheet. I'll trade you if you want. 2062 01:48:10,600 --> 01:48:14,080 Deal. All right, all right, I, I, I'll 2063 01:48:14,080 --> 01:48:16,200 take Gabriel and. I'll take Dylan Sampson. 2064 01:48:17,200 --> 01:48:19,000 OK, so. Wow. 2065 01:48:19,280 --> 01:48:22,040 OK, All right. We've we've executed a trade. 2066 01:48:22,280 --> 01:48:25,480 Let me let me update. Let me update this in my message 2067 01:48:25,480 --> 01:48:33,360 to Zach, Dylan Gabriel and Dylan Sampson. 2068 01:48:33,440 --> 01:48:37,920 Incredible stuff. No, people don't like the trade 2069 01:48:37,920 --> 01:48:40,400 for me. Look man, you got to get through 2070 01:48:40,400 --> 01:48:42,440 three weeks. You need you need to build 2071 01:48:42,480 --> 01:48:44,360 redundancy at the quarterback position. 2072 01:48:45,280 --> 01:48:47,440 Yeah, but doesn't. Get more important all the way 2073 01:48:47,440 --> 01:48:53,800 Brown's quarterback. Yeah, you can make him throw him 2074 01:48:53,800 --> 01:48:57,160 a nun guy. OK, that makes me feel better 2075 01:48:57,160 --> 01:48:59,560 because it seems like there's at least not a, not a full 2076 01:48:59,560 --> 01:49:01,080 consensus that I shouldn't have made the trade. 2077 01:49:01,400 --> 01:49:04,360 I think Dylan Sampson's fun. I I, you know what my The thing 2078 01:49:04,360 --> 01:49:06,800 is, I was looking at my running back room and it's sneaky awful. 2079 01:49:07,000 --> 01:49:07,720 I mean, it's kind of. Neat. 2080 01:49:07,720 --> 01:49:11,360 Actual BBM Dylan Sampson's obviously like an infinitely 2081 01:49:11,360 --> 01:49:14,040 better pick than Dylan Gabriel, but in this specific? 2082 01:49:14,040 --> 01:49:16,480 But for the mechanics, the mechanics of this game. 2083 01:49:16,480 --> 01:49:19,480 Necessary to condom out my quarterback position. 2084 01:49:19,480 --> 01:49:21,360 As soon as possible. I feel ya. 2085 01:49:21,600 --> 01:49:26,600 I feel ya. Man, Pat, I'm worried about your 2086 01:49:26,600 --> 01:49:29,480 tight ends too. I'm honestly how Like how did 2087 01:49:29,480 --> 01:49:32,480 Jacob get every winner? I don't know, let's. 2088 01:49:32,560 --> 01:49:35,640 Jacob, you guys are on a drafting, I'm drafting, I'm 2089 01:49:35,640 --> 01:49:39,280 drafting an ARP team. Yeah, yeah, valid. 2090 01:49:40,160 --> 01:49:41,320 All right. I have to do. 2091 01:49:41,320 --> 01:49:43,800 Personals and signs, so my wide receivers are a little weak, but 2092 01:49:43,800 --> 01:49:45,520 when he does. Lookout. 2093 01:49:45,560 --> 01:49:49,640 Yeah, when he signs, when he signs with, I don't know, the 2094 01:49:49,640 --> 01:49:51,360 Chicago Bears. That would be very funny for. 2095 01:49:51,360 --> 01:49:55,880 Them even more like draft day, yes Yeah, throw in David Putney, 2096 01:49:55,880 --> 01:50:01,760 you pancake eating motherfucker. All right, I got to go do the 2097 01:50:01,760 --> 01:50:04,360 spool cast. Crane is going to be on with me 2098 01:50:04,360 --> 01:50:07,200 at 1:30 Eastern at 12. 30 central on my channel. 2099 01:50:08,200 --> 01:50:10,560 No, I, I might have double booked myself. 2100 01:50:10,560 --> 01:50:13,600 So we got to discuss. All right, we're going to, but I 2101 01:50:13,640 --> 01:50:16,240 will, I want to try to figure out a different time today, if 2102 01:50:16,240 --> 01:50:19,240 you've got time. Yeah, we could. 2103 01:50:19,320 --> 01:50:22,760 We could figure it out. Jacob, what do you have over at 2104 01:50:22,760 --> 01:50:26,400 Thinking about Thinking? Yeah, I wrote a big piece, I 2105 01:50:26,400 --> 01:50:30,400 think it was actually last Tuesday, but after recording and 2106 01:50:30,400 --> 01:50:34,200 it was primarily looking at the running back versus wide 2107 01:50:34,200 --> 01:50:40,200 receiver economy and trying to make sense of it in terms of not 2108 01:50:40,640 --> 01:50:43,440 projections or points per game, although I included some stuff 2109 01:50:43,440 --> 01:50:45,120 on that. But specifically looking at 2110 01:50:45,520 --> 01:50:51,960 where in the draft do late season weeks 10 through 1720 and 2111 01:50:51,960 --> 01:50:55,840 25 points spike weeks come from and, and does that make sense of 2112 01:50:55,840 --> 01:50:58,240 our current ADP environment or their their holes? 2113 01:50:58,880 --> 01:51:01,480 So you can check that out. They'll be a Part 2 on that 2114 01:51:01,480 --> 01:51:05,640 piece, which focuses less on the positional aspects and more on 2115 01:51:05,640 --> 01:51:07,960 the archetypes of players within each position. 2116 01:51:08,200 --> 01:51:09,600 They'll probably come out sometime this week. 2117 01:51:11,000 --> 01:51:13,760 Beautiful. All right boys, we're getting 2118 01:51:13,760 --> 01:51:15,800 out of here. Come watch the Swirl Cast over 2119 01:51:15,800 --> 01:51:20,480 in 5 minutes over on the Swirl Cast YouTube channel and we will 2120 01:51:21,080 --> 01:51:22,160 see you later. Adios. 2121 01:51:23,120 --> 01:51:25,520 Later, I do just want to mention we're still running the free 2122 01:51:25,520 --> 01:51:28,160 trial legendaryupside.com slash. SIM Kick. 2123 01:51:28,200 --> 01:51:30,280 Out there, the SIM kick. Yeah, check it out. 2124 01:51:30,760 --> 01:51:31,560 All right, later, guys.