Hey everybody and welcome to week 8 of statue, acing, it's
really injury packed week. A lot of interesting things to
break down and we have a song join this week as a replacement
for Connor. So really excited about that.
You guys, obviously all know it's on from from Road of is,
and he's been on trips chasing a bunch.
So, yeah, I'm excited to have you on this on.
How was your weekend now? That's for having me on.
I was pretty excited when you asked me to hook, guest, to
guest host year. So I decided I was like, hell
yeah. One of my, this is one of the
Premier podcast said, listen to so.
And that's actually not me being facetious is like a podcast by
smart people for smart people. So I like it a lot the week.
The week itself is going on right?
Looking over my fantasy teams had a pretty strong showing as
opposed to what I thought, where I thought I'd be.
I think Monday Night Football really bailed me out a little
bit. How about yourself?
Yeah, we just going. All right?
Yeah. Digesting some of the injuries
stuff and as far as Fantasy last week didn't have the best week,
had a lot of like, Eagles players.
So the bye week that heard some my teams and then yeah.
When I was on you and blares Paul Kasin Sunday, talk about
how I'd somehow. I ended up with a lot of Falcons
players and my team this year. So that was the pits and London
disaster. Continue this Week, so I don't
know. We can, we can dive into that
once, you know the charts but it's getting harder to to start
either of those guys at this point.
Yeah, but just imagine if it also had Calvin Ridley so that
way they can have this phenomenal receiving Corps and
I'm just not throw the ball, right?
Oh my God, if ever really back next year and they keep with
this archaic offense. It's going to be a man.
Well, Well we'll dive into that in just a bit.
It's Ahmad. We get into the quarterbacks now
to start things off sir, let's do it.
So on the quarterback side just for everyone listening on audio
or watching along and video we're looking at quarterback
passing efficiency and rushing production here on this chart so
just to quickly Orient you to the Chart we have Adjusted yards
per attempt on the x-axis. So that's yards per attempt, but
adjusted for interceptions and touchdowns, and then TD rate
here on the y axis, and finally, the size of the bubbles here is
rushing yards, so you'll see guys like Jalen hurd's and Lamar
have much larger bubbles than say Tom Brady, you know, to
those those types of guys. So Looking at this chart the
first thing that jumped out to me is on was seeing two in that
far, right? Quadrant of the chart.
So continuing to boast a strong adjust yards per attempt with a
pretty strong touchdown rate. We saw him after weeks one and
two up way up there in that top right quadrant.
And, you know, it's obviously still a small sample size with
him, but just curious your thoughts on to going forward
whether we can A sort of expect him to maintain this level of
efficiency that is shown with Tyreke and waddle or sort of you
expect him to regress more to, you know, 2021 version of to uh,
maybe maybe somewhere in the middle here yet, curious how
you're viewing to for the rest of the season.
Now, I really don't see how do I was truly going to regress,
right? Like it's a little difficult.
So so one of the things about average are yards per attempt
here to all was actually fourth last week, you know?
9.4 just in yards per attempt was pretty impressive.
Considering the fact that the fins didn't necessarily need to
do a lot against the Steelers to win, there was a lot of meat
left on the bone. You could tell that they were
there playing a back in if you watch that game and I just think
the reason that he doesn't regret or won't regress is
primarily because he's got jeolla model on top of that,
they have Tyree kill. Like this is an offense that is
built to emphasize the fact that you are is in a group Maybe he
has a noodle arm. Sure.
And maybe not aggressive on downfield attempts.
Like, you know, the other guys in this quadrant Joshua Allen
Patrick homes, especially Joe borrow, as well as nice in
there. But these guys win with yak and
so, like, they basically make up for the fact that his deep ball
may not be as his deep ball game and not be among the elite.
They try to do the best and mitigate their issues as it
comes down to, if they're as it comes down to.
To what do I has now. I've now I will preface this by
saying in terms of completion percentage over expected to, I
was actually one of the worst last week had -6.8 completion
percentage over expected, which is, you know, to be something to
expect coming from a quarterback coming off, a horrific head
injury that we saw, you know. I so I'm actually optimistic
that we will see to a kind of continued to smash on this on
this far right remaining in this quadrant II.
Don't Give you a surprise. I don't expect him to sort of
fall back down to earth. It's the one that also got my
eye and we could to be jaywalker in a second, but I wanted to
wanted to point out that Joe borrow, you know, like he's
really come on strong. I think.
Do you think this is like he's put together two incredibly
solid back-to-back weeks? Do you think that this offense
is figure something out? I just drove borrow, you know,
move move further to the right here in your, in your opinion.
Yeah. Definitely seems like they
figured something out the past couple weeks.
I don't have the numbers in front of me right now, but I
think they've gone a lot more three.
I mean, they're heavily a three wide receiver team already, but
I think they've gone even more into an extreme of that the past
couple weeks and also just running the offense through
jobber instead of Joe Mixon the past couple weeks as well.
You know, that's something we saw a little bit last year to
where they started off the season seeming like they wanted
Joe Mixon, the dungeon offense, and then down the stretch
figured out. Hey, if we just let Joe burrow
go LSU mode and throw the ball, every play, he can put up some
ridiculous numbers. So, you know, Zach, Taylor's
fooled me before, and we've seen these games, and he's gone back
to these, you know, massive rushing games for Joe Mixon.
So, I don't want to say the tide has completely turned here, but
I do expect them to be more past, happy or continue to be
Sort of pass that be down the stretch of the Season, you know,
as long as those throughout receivers Higgins.
Boyd. And Chase can remain healthy.
I expect big things from from Borough.
Yeah, the Achievers has to mean the Chad that I said that D was
dusted. Is this act of aggression will
not stand? I mean, to be fair he was the
only one of three Bangles wide receivers should not cross 100
yards receiving. So so yeah, he is kind of Dusty
in And in that regard, I mean I mean board had a career day.
Jim are chasing, you know, can like I mean like I can score
from anywhere in the field, given the football and watch
him. Watch him destroy the defense.
Just wanted to Circle back here to PJ Walker.
This seems to be just by virtue. It's like he's only had like two
starts. One was just abject the
atrocious and one was his like career best career, best game
against the Buccaneers. How do you expect that dot of
his in Brady spy. To go.
And do you think that it's replaced by Baker, Mayfield?
Yeah. You know, I think like I
honestly think the way Baker was playing.
It's almost hard for Walker to do worse now.
I don't expect, you know, I see them in sort of this top, right?
Quadrant here around, guys, like Derek, Carr, Jared, Goff, Jimmy
G. I don't really know, like, those
guys are like amazing, but I don't expect Walker to be in
that range. I expect him to be Closer to
sort of, like a Davis Mills, maybe Matt Ryan type area this
season, but, yeah, I don't know, honestly, it he what I care more
about with Walker. Then, like his fantasy stats
himself, like it's hard to see him ever being fancy relevant.
It's more about, can he support DJ more?
I sort of like the last Bastion of fantasy relevance on this
Panthers team and DJ more has showed Signs of Life the past
couple weeks, not like, massive games.
But his two best games this season, I believe.
So just the fact that he's prioritizing getting DJ more,
the ball, I'm excited about. And yeah, I think if I was to
like ranked the most likely, you know, so there's Donald Baker
and p.j. Walker all on the Panthers as
quarterbacks the rest of the year, I think at this point like
I think Donald's starting the majority of the games might be
the most likely scenario, maybe Walker s and Baker.
Third, like that's sort of how I drank it if I was just to sort
of guess. But yeah, I don't know, curious
at what your thoughts are. Do you think Donald like, you
think Walker's playing well enough to hold off to Arnold,
who's supposed to be back from IR?
The next next week or two? That's a good question.
I honestly, man. I don't don't think anyone has
it as an answer. That's yeah.
Definitive. I mean again, like I'm kind of
with you where I think they might go back to Sam.
Donald, but like, Donald was also kind of, I mean, in essence
kind of got cooped, right? Like, they went out.
They traded for Baker, Mayfield. They were like, you know, we're
done. There was like a Competition for
quarterbacking where they just gave it to Baker.
You know Donald also got her so like you don't know he had a
good case like this is again like for from a quarterback
perspective. It's a waste I think from a
fantasy perspective we really just want someone who will just
deliver the ball to DJ more 10 times the game.
Yeah no more. This shy Smith no more this
Tommy tremble. Like none of this None of these
XFL guys, you know, like we don't want, we don't want to see
to see these guys taking up. Like, I like off the very
limited offensive possessions are going to get.
We just don't want to see these guys getting prioritize in any
way, shape, or form. I mean, given DJ more like, you
know, acquisition prices offseason, it sucks.
He's just gonna play him and you're going to have to bear,
you know what I mean? Like, as we as we go into the by
weeks is not that many viable viable, you know, guys, you can
actually spot in there like this week, you, but the charge Is
done by and also the chief some by instantly removes like a
handful of guys who you know we're going later than them and
drafts you could put in I will say the name that jumps out the
motion is like the biggest indictment here.
Is just got her more a hanging out like just where he is.
It's just like, I mean I mean everyone saw it right?
They came fighting with with cliff on the sidelines during
the game with a just yelling at each other about the plague.
I think. Do you think, do you think you
could being back improves, get smarter at least to the right
side of the quadrant there. Like at least, if you know
somewhere at least outside of this, Justin Fields, Tom Brady,
Daniel Jones area, I think, yeah, I think he will get
better. I mean we have a big enough
sample size and Marie, I don't think he's like there's no
really I mean some of the other underperformers in this area and
makes sense like Stafford's getting old really limited
weapons in that team. Dak had an injury sort of small
sample size. I don't know Kyler.
I just don't see him continuing to play this bad.
I do you think that the Arizona scheme is is terrible and not
getting the most out of the players but collars been able to
overcome that before? So yeah I think like from a
Fantasy Point standpoint, I think he hasn't still hasn't
been that bad. He's kind of like been saved by
You man and rushing a little bit and I would like I think the
public perception, you know, we don't have like atp's to go off
of anything right now, but I think the public perception on
Cuyler is lower than what my expectation is for him, for the
rest of the year. So maybe maybe in leagues like
it's worth sending a trade-off or over to the Cuyler owner
because I think he hasn't really showed that ceiling game yet
this year and I think, I think it still exists.
I know you've started the question about Hopkins.
I sort of see like the Hopkins verse Marquis Brown, swap, as
sort of a wash. I don't.
Yeah, it's hard for me to say that.
That's like a major upgrade or like a major, downgrade, I
think. You know with with brown leaving
Hopkins, coming in like I guess my point would be I don't think
that's the Hopkins, is the reason Kyler will play better
going forward. I started to see it as like more
like Randomness that like he has to play better going forward
based on his sort of career up to this point.
Yeah, I'm kind of I'm kind of with you on that.
I mean, like so. So, so Chris had a good question
to chat about Kliff Kingsbury. Ever elevating the Cardinals
skill players? Yeah.
To that is no, man. I mean, I was still stunned.
At the fact that they actually gave this incredibly
dysfunctional. Steve gaim, Kliff Kingsbury
bearing and extension. We've seen, we've seen teams do
that where they just have, like, they make the playoffs once
through like really good luck and then they just sort of
celebrate and then that's it. And then you come back to the
next season. And it's a yes, I'm how it's
even worse. Yeah.
I mean, I mean like, like like
TT appoint calamari survived and I crushing alone.
I mean, this is the same. The same thing is kind of a
little bit true. Now, for Daniel Jones, is also
here and so same adjustment Fields.
I mean, we were there, we all saw it like the Bears finally
decided to start using designed runs for their incredibly
pathetic mobile quarterback and it worked.
I don't know. I don't know like oh I want to
get out. And is there the Giants you do
something similar? Her with Daniel Jones.
So I wanted to get your take like, like candidly speaking.
Would you be dropping someone like Annie Pickett, You know,
despite the fact that he's got these phenomenal wide receivers
for someone like a Daniel Jones, if that's possible.
Yeah, that's a tough one. I kind of view them as similar.
I think I'm I think I would give Still The Edge to pick it, over
Jones and and Fields just because I think there's a little
bit like we haven't seen it so far as you can obviously on this
chart. Yeah he's adjust yards per
attempt to sway the left. Now that that is skewed by the
fact that I think he's thrown like five interceptions to just
two touchdowns or something along those lines and the way it
just purely the way that metric is calculated.
If your ratio is that skew from touchdowns interceptions, you're
going to do poorly. But Yeah I don't know I just
think there's more sort of like the the mystery box element to
pick it. Still where I can see him really
exploding from from a passing perspective in a way that that
Jones and Fields. I don't think Ken and also pick
it does add a little bit on his legs but yeah, I think, I think
that's about the right range. The thing with Jones and Fields
that's kind of interesting is like there.
They're rushing ability. Mostly just gives them a floor
and fantasy but they haven't really put the rushing and the
wrist and the passing together to really show a true ceiling
and maybe it's just kind of like unlucky for them that it hasn't
happened yet but I tend to think it's more systemic.
Like, with the Bears are just not letting feels throat enough.
I mean, maybe last time we saw salt a little bit and then give
me one pass attempts, though. That was all the ad.
Yeah. Yeah.
And what Jones like I think the water Seaver room there is just
so bad that it's tough to see him, really exploding through
the air. So, yeah, I think like yeah, if
your life, you're looking for upside and like, a 1qb league, I
still think I prefer pick it to those two if you're in sort of
like, just looking for a one-week starter, maybe I'd go
go Jones or Fields, but yeah, the season-long upside I still
think is better for Pickett. Yeah.
And I mean, do to your point about like, how they just yards
per attempt is calculated, I actually think it's good.
That he's like, still chucking it.
If that makes sense. You know what I mean?
The, he is not turtling. Then the offense isn't turtling
either, like dominant doesn't care.
He's gonna let the Rook. Rip it, even if they're going to
be. Even if he's going to throw
three amps, like, I'm kind of with you in that, I'd rather bet
on Pickens, Claypool Deonte back.
At for your mood. Yeah but actually carrying him
to some big spike weeks because because Daniel Jones is going to
need to know Richie, James to go off or something.
Yeah. That, you know, you know, like
inner David cells or yeah. Yeah, the kids because you can
see a like a 40D game in Pickett's range of outcomes at
like especially the fact that they're fine with the in the
rookie guard permanent and then, go right back out and sling it
again, you know. Yeah, the he they're not they're
not putting any clamps on him which is, which is actually good
to see because why not figure out what you have in it and fail
fast. Right?
Yeah, I agree. I wanted to hit on this comment
from Graham. So yeah.
Just in how these charts are made.
G i-- limit to one quarterback per team and I do my best to
Guess Who the starting quarterback like next week is
going to be, truly was a pea and Mac.
I didn't, I didn't know how to guess in that one.
But if zappy was on this chart, he Ali would show up in the top
right quadrant like sort of near Gino.
He's got eight around here, let me pull it up.
He's got 8.1, adjusted yards per attempt and then a 5.4 percent
TD rate. So yeah, you would be sort of
around 400, G. No, Jimmy G on this chart.
So, yeah, I think that's just an interesting quick point that
like sappy has definitely been a lot better than mac on his
Limited. Sample thus far.
So we'll see if the Patriots think of it that way.
Or if the Mac benching was more due to injury than performance
that's kind of kind of a hard one to read it.
I mean I don't know if you're reading the same stuff but it
sounds like to might be going back to back next week so I
don't think they were particularly thrilled without
that game played out for them but yeah, dime Dime dime.
I'm Adele just a real shame. Yeah, great story.
Yeah, it's I like zap is fun but I think it's probably in a come
to an end but hey, like he's made himself so much money in
the league just by being confident in a couple backup
starts. He could be a guard.
Yes, you can be the chase staniel of Our Generation.
The last one thing I wanted to hit on here Saint and then feel
free to add anything else. Is just, I think it's
interesting that marry you Appears in the far, right,
quadrant also, like showing a pretty good rushing ceiling here
with this bubble size and like the thing that this charge is,
obviously missing is is volume like passing volume, it's
showing passing efficiency but we have no like you wouldn't be
able to tell from this chart that the Falcons are operating
offense from the, the 1920s. But I just want to make that
point to say that it's kind of frustrating.
How was I could see if Ryota was like, you know, where Kyler was
or where back Jones was in this chart.
I can see. Okay, I can see why Arthur Smith
is trying to limit the offense like Mario has been so terrible,
so inefficient, but this chart is actually is actually showing
that when he does pass, he's been relatively efficient and
you know, it's not boosted by some artificially High TD rate.
Like as to you rate is fairly middle of the road.
So yeah, I just want to make the point that the Arthur Smith
stuff like makes even less. Sense.
Given, what's on this chart? I don't think Mariota is a star
by any means, and I think a volume went up his efficiency
probably would go down. But like, at least try to, at
least try to throw and games for your down by 20 the entire game.
It's just kind of a ridiculous offense to be running there in
Atlanta. Yeah, and I think some of it is
just comes from from recent performance, right?
Like just sort of like what we saw, we want more out of out of
it because we're heavily invested in the passing game,
but he's currently averaging about 18, people have points per
game right now. He's only had like one truly
horrendous week in. That was like week 4 against
Cleveland. I mean, maybe Cincinnati if you
account for the 13, otherwise, Ever since all the other ones,
like he's been above at or above 17.8, PPR points per game, it's
kind of got a median outcome of like 20, people are points per
game. So I'm not surprised to see him
in that in that area. It's very much and this is
gonna, it's very gross and sad to say, but this is the Tim
Tebow experience. You just plug them in and you
just tuned right out. You just don't pay attention.
And then you just and then you look, you got like 17 or 18.
Points. And you're like, All right, all
right just don't don't stack them with this pass catchers.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Now that's a good point.
Like the Mariota fantasy stuff is actually been decent and like
I think I don't know. I want to say there's like a
ceiling game in there somewhere if the Falcons ever wake up and
throw a little bit more. But man I'm I said that last
week. I was we all the Bangles are
going to push them and the Bangles.
Theoretically push them and the Falcons.
Has responded by running even harder so I don't know.
We'll see you on that. I do want to move on to running
back now. So for people following along,
we're now looking at running back, expected fantasy points
and efficiency on this chart, with receiving expected fantasy
points, on the y-axis, rushing expected fantasy points on the
x-axis, Add those together. You get a sense of running
backs, total workload in terms of expected fantasy points.
So this is showing the average expected fantasy points over
weeks 1 through 7, just for the AFC running backs, the song, one
thing I do know, we talked about this on Sunday on your Sunday
show with Blair but the Austin Eckler usage here really jumps
out again on this chart and yeah I just wanted.
I know you talked a little you had some theories about like the
The Eckler workload. So curious again to get your
take for, maybe those who didn't hear it.
Do you think this receiving workload for Eckler is
sustainable, especially with Keenan coming back or do you
think this is bound to regress? I mean, I think it's sustainable
here II really do. It sounds crazy to say.
Mike Williams is out, maybe keen and get some more of the shorter
targets, but it really seems that like Justin Herbert is has
really been hindered by that rib injury, a lot of short passing
coming from coming from him and that's actually like very
relevant if you go back to the quarterback charge.
And so for those of you, I suggest going to Sam's Twitter
feed to actually pull these, charts company treats them
because it is very important to actually see that because I
think that those two things, go hand in hand, we're awesome.
Meckler truly is that safety blanket right now for Justin
Herbert. Now, maybe maybe is rib is fine
in. The long run.
I may be down the stretch, she's not going to be there but right
now he is breaking fantasy football.
Like he is putting up, you know, buku points.
And that is I mean that's what you need.
He's got, I mean, he's got 45, high-value touches.
The next closest one is to him as soon as you in your chart,
actually is Joe Mixon with 39. He's currently lapping the field
in terms of receptions 41, the next highest next to that is I
don't let me just quickly check. Here is Christian McCaffrey with
33. Like that's just ridiculous.
These are no rules. Yeah, sorry I'm sorry to cut you
off, but just yeah, you're good. 16 and 12 the past two weeks
with catch reception, totals of 10 and 12.
It's just I mean that's that would be ridiculous for a wide
receiver. Yeah, it's it's just, I mean,
it's absolutely out of control and I think that like, Yeah, you
can see from a real football perspective, like how little
like this truly helps because I did not win any games
unfortunately, right? But the fact that they're trying
to like minimize the issues that Herbert is going through and
leaning on Eckler, like for as long as for I'm sure we can be
100% sure. That Herbert is good to go can
play without pain. Can roll out.
Take big hits and make big plays without any form of being
hindered. Like I think This is completely
sustainable. Yeah, I mean we talked about
Zack Taylor before Joe Mixon is getting there, it just in terms
of insane workload, despite his inefficiency right.
Yeah, it's yeah. I love you the same way.
I think it's I think it's sustainable and like yeah I
mean, teens going back, but Mike Williams is now going to be out.
I don't expect Keenan to be fully healthy whenever Mike
Williams comes back. I don't expect him to be fully
healthy and then we'll maybe see it on the water Seaver.
Charts later. But DeAndre Carter and
joshjpalmer, a both, basically running wind Sprints when
they're in the game. So like there's The targets off
to go to continue with hecklers in my opinion, like, unless will
Fuller obj's walking through that door or?
Is it obj on the Vikings did that?
Is that official now? Is that official?
I don't know. I think I saw I saw the no no,
there's still a rumor. Never mind still a rumor.
Yeah, I didn't. I got a Twitter notification for
that a few days ago and then checked it and it seemed to be
some kind of rumor, but anyways. Point being on Eckler, like the
water Seaver room there, so bad, especially with these injuries.
That it just seems like a situation where they're going to
design target. Continue to design targets for
him out of the backfield and run the offense through him.
Yeah, just to add on to that just wanted to say.
Like if you look in 2025 expected Fantasy Point, quadrant
There he is. The backup running back in Los
Angeles Chargers. So any, Michelle, bam!
I like Spiller. Unfortunately, like can't even
get onto the field and when he does he gets stuff for 4 - 5 run
though - five yards. Yeah.
Did you say I mean, so you're looking at just Ridiculous
workload here for Eckler, just going forward really quick.
I wanted to get, get your thoughts on and remember he's
going to pop up later so we can't we can also move on but
just wanted to say I wanted to get your thoughts on that James
Robinson trade where you think Travis etn where we're going to
expect, expect to see him sort of start start to settle in?
Yeah, I would. So, looking at this charge is to
sort of ground and some numbers. Here we have both James Robinson
in Travis easy. Ein averaging about ten expected
fantasy points per game. Now, what are you to?
Look at this over just the last couple weeks, you know, I'm just
kind of winging it here, but you can see, etm, probably closer to
15 and Robinson. Probably closer to 5 like it
really, it really has shifted in favor of etn, over the past
couple weeks. But yeah, I would expect like
etn going forward to be in that 15 to 20 expected fantasy points
range. That that might sound
aggressive, but I really think he's going to get close to a
true Workhorse volume and that running back around the other
backups, Michael Hasty, Snoop Connor, they're really not NFL
talents or least. They haven't showed that yet.
It seems like the coaching staff is trusting etn more and more.
So yeah, I would probably be like if I was drafting today,
you know, shooting from the hip a little bit but I'd be drafting
etn in the top 12 running. Beck's probably around, you know
somewhere in the second round I would yeah, yeah, I think, I
mean the value you're looking at an efficiency counts, you've
been efficient with his work, they efficiency counts.
For sure. And the receiving stuff, too.
Like I think what's what's really exciting about him is the
the big play ability to? I think like with a lot of these
guys, you know, briefs all Austin Eckler, even Nick Chubb
and Derrick Henry some of these Elite running back to be seen
through the years, like the ability to rip off a really long
touchdown, run, you know some people say it's fluky all like
take away that 7-yard touchdown run and you only had this many
points but no. You want to look for running
backs that have that Breakaway ability because that can really
be what wins you, your fantasy weeks.
It's a skill. And you know, as it dick job
does I think he's got like 24 or so of those like incredibly long
runs like Breakaway runs over the course of the Season.
Yeah. Doesn't shock me because if like
looking well yeah I'll jump forward here just while we're on
shop, but yeah, jobs workload is like laughably low.
Like he if you just look at workload in terms of Russia
Thompson routes like he doesn't even appear on this first,
running back chart here. He's like, on all of the Browns
snaps. He is only receiving a rush or a
route on around like 35% of the teams.
Snaps. So like compare that to Berkeley
or some other Workhorse and then I fell like you see these guys
getting closer to 60, 50 percent of their of their team's snap
for their either, getting a rush, tempura route.
And yeah chub-chub survives on efficiency.
But you know, at some point you have to realize that it's
somewhat it's somewhat sticky with guys like job it may be
another thing too that I think jumps out to me on this chart is
just the Gus Edwards. Yeah.
Off I think Baltimore For talking about.
Yeah, I don't know. Last week up, I think people
were a kind of asleep on the waiver wire.
I'm guilty of this as well where the Dobbins stuff started to
look kind of bad. And I had a bunch of leaks were
Gus Edwards, Kenyan Drake, Justice Hill, we're all out
there and it kind of left me like paralyzed it to the point
where I was like, yeah, like all this bid on.
None of them there, you know, none of them are worth paying
for because I can't figure out who's who the guy is going to be
turns out that Gus Edwards was He's very much.
The guy, at least from an expected points work workload
perspective. He comes in here with no
receiving workload. That's that's kind of what we
expect of him. But around 12, rushing expected
points, which, you know, for a guy, you get off waivers.
That's that's pretty good. Definitely like RV to you know,
where the if that were to continue.
But yeah, just curious if you have thoughts on on the Ravens
backfield would you be putting in Aggressive bids on Gus
Edwards, if he's still out there and your casual leagues or so,
how are you sort of approaching Baltimore backfield?
Yeah. I think I think Gus would be the
way to play it. I just for now I mean we know
that they like him. He's short of proven to be the
guy. I don't know how aggressive you
truly have to be. If only because It was a very
weird game that, you know, like they basically were like they
reprise with the Falcons did except that, you know, it was
with Lamar under Center and Lamar is more than capable of
just converting all those short goal line Looks and also like
punching him in from far right. But I will say that you do want
to prioritize. God, still speak of somehow if
he's still there. I believe Bateman it was a dnp
this week either probably going to feed him, which is a little
unfortunate. For those of us who want to want
to see a healthy and functioning Ariel offense for the Ravens.
Yeah. Yeah, the Ravens offense has
been frustrating started off so hard from a passing perspective
is really faded. Let's move on here to the to the
NS e running backs. Again, same chart here but now
just showing the NFC yeah a couple No, we talked about this
last week, not a lot of huge changes.
I do want to point out that like Chimera is a guy wear and I wish
we had basketball ADP to back this up, but I think people were
really down on Chimera to start the season.
He looked pretty bad in the first couple weeks from both the
usage and efficiency perspective, both of those have
improved recently and I think Dalton starting as been a huge
Boon to Camaros workload. He's way more prone to dump them
all dump off, short passes to Camara, then Jamis was.
But yeah, just sort of like a mental note for me, that
camara's role is pretty strong, and maybe sort of stronger than
I think. I think, oftentimes, we get
anchored the first couple weeks and it was pretty easy to label
Chimera boss after the first couple weeks.
Now, you know, maybe if you got on The Late Late second round or
something like that that's the probably like pretty.
Fair fair value and maybe you can buy in some places but yeah.
And anything jump out to you here, either on Camaro or other
other situations on this chart that you wanted to talk through.
Now, I'm with you on camera. I'd be interested to see what
happens. If the Saints go back to Jim is
because that, that receiving expected fantasy points could
easily change. I think Camaro also benefited
ago for one week without having a Lobby there.
They're right. And then hey, Michael Thomas
now, to be Michael Thomas has an exhibit, you know like yeah,
Nick Nick bird kind of captures. The guy I was just about to say,
guys Walker seems low on this charge based on Roll.
Yeah. That's you know better because
Benny still mixed in for quite some time, here's something fun
though. Kenneth Walker is mostly a
Russian guy, so you're going to. So so basically, this chart will
work in the weeks where he didn't do very much, it's going
to it. Suppresses his actual value I
think just yeah just looking at each he he's one guy who I would
expect to see in that 10 to 15 expected fantasy points quadrant
especially because he's one of those guys who lives off of long
run. And if long long runs and
efficiency we've seen him do that.
He lets see Hugh had 3.8 rushing yards over expected last week
and he also, I believe has smashed.
The over on his longest, rushing attempt dropped in every start
this far in the season. Well, so, and I can just so, you
know, he's got these big big runs, like, absolutely
completely in there. Yeah, Kenneth Walker's.
A guy who you should not be surprised to see instantly going
that 10 to 15 Point range? Yeah.
And just just to like get a little more concrete with the
the numbers. If you were to just look at the
past two weeks, for kind of Walker, He's got expected Point
workloads via PFF of Sixteen point six and twelve point nine
for the past two weeks. So that, you know, average that
that's about 15, he would be showing up sort of, you know,
maybe like kind of like a Dalvin cook miles Sanders, ask workload
over the past couple weeks. So again, I think, yeah, that's
like, he's definitely. He's definitely hitting a little
bit on this chart compared to his workload.
Since he's been the starter. But at the same time we're not
seeing like enough. Receiving usage from him yet.
To put him in sort of the 15 to 20 expected Fantasy Point range.
I think we need to see a little bit more receiving before we
can. We can put them there.
But yeah, the efficiency is going to be.
I think that the agency is going to continue to be very strong
for him. So yeah, here's a, here's one
that I want to get your note thoughts on.
So Khalil Herbert kind of lines up pretty closely with David
Montgomery on this chart for all like very, very closely.
Yeah, yet their workloads are very dissimilar.
Like, do you think the Bears eventually go to a true 50/50
committee? Like what, like, why are there
not or at least? And if not, why not?
Yeah, I think so and I think we, I'm actually curious on.
I didn't have time to look at the snaps from last night but I
think I did seek legal Herbert. Start the third quarter with
getting a touch before Montgomery did.
Yeah, that that's something I want to double.
Check to see if there's any any sign and maybe I can pull that
out as we're talking. But yeah, I think think like one
thing about this chart is it is going to be skewed slightly by
just how it works. There is one Khalil or maybe
even to like Khalil Herbert starts, that would get factored
into the average here where Herbert got to play without
Montgomery. And we haven't seen Montgomery
play without Herbert so that does skew the chart a little
bit. I think we've seen now for two
years it's a little bit like a Pollard Zeke situation where
clearly the backup guy is better than the starter.
But the Has some stubbornness in playing the back up over the
starter. So yeah I mean I'd expect like I
kind of expect what we've seen out of Pollard Zeke now or
Herbert mixes in and gets like a decent role but I don't expect
it to go to True 50/50 or for Herbert to surpass Montgomery.
It's just like a frustrating coach stubbornness thing.
I think I think also because both of them are bigger body.
Yaxha Zeke and and Montgomery that they prefer to have their
other like their explosive guys. Remain explosive, right?
Like you know I mean like it's fine if you're giving you a
little value touches to the big cruising guy, you know, get two
or three yards and then you you know as cliche as it sounds
truth hundred like I I will say that you know what I love about
this chart and all this chart so far is that they're all
directionally very correct. Like you can see exactly how the
story this season been unfolding.
The Alaska. I wanted to just quickly, make a
note on is Darrell Henderson with this cam Akers stuff man.
Like he could be a guy who I think remains in this 52 Dan but
could potentially sneak into like that that you know,
borderline 10 to 15. Yeah, I think that's a good
time. Talking about Henderson to move
on to this next chart. I think this shows that the
Henderson dilemma, I guess pretty well.
So now just for people falling along.
We're looking at percent of Team plays where the player either
gets a rush attempt or a route. And this first chart is showing
all running backs that are getting a greater than 35
percent. Route / Rush attempt rate and
Henderson overs. So now this is, this is just
looking at a snapshot of the last four weeks is just weeks
427 to filter out the first couple weeks Henderson has like
a top 12, top 15 role in terms of percent of team play.
Worries, you know, getting a router Rush attempt but it's a
lot of empty routes for him and not a lot of Russia temps how
they've kind of structure. This backfield is Henderson's
out there for all of the past blocking stuff, a lot of the
past routes. But he's not earning a ton of
targets, it seems like a lot of the dump off, you're going to,
you know, higbee's quranic, you know, even cop.
And he's just kind of running empty routes.
And then when they do want to bring a running back on the
field, to take a rush attempt that's been Acres.
That's even been Malcolm Brown this past week.
Like it seems like it's kind of like I don't know if you
remember like the the Daria Goomba Wally Tampa Bay Bucs roll
from back in the day. Yes yes Almost a little bit like
that where it's like he's a bad receiving back.
That's getting a lot of empty receiving snaps so yeah, I don't
know. He's a tricky one for me like it
when you ask I don't have I don't have a straight answer on
it. Like I this this type of chart
like tells me like, hey hey Is gone.
He already has his pretty big workload, like things should get
better for him. But at the same time I don't see
him as having like this, I don't see him as having like, massive
upside, like I think the median scenarios things get a little
bit better for him, but I'm not like going out and overpaying
for Henderson, you know, baseball something like this.
I don't think you even need to really like God's adjusted like
gosh adjusted. He's fine.
Frankly, he's like, he's a, he's what you getting for an rb2 of
what you're In for coffee, actually pretty good, right?
But then even the guys near him on the chart, he mustered
especially like you know you're getting a similar outcome right?
Possibly better G taking those guys later like I think that
becomes a real discussion point. If you're looking at her he
mustered versus Henderson then that that's a real discussion
Point. Yeah.
Or a real decision point for you or you know but like yeah
Henderson you know, he's going to play get most of the Russian
work that's fine. Sucks about receiving work but
you know, this You getting out your RV to yeah, I did.
I didn't want to talk about like Jacobs here and I think we try
to be like on the show. We generally try to be forward
looking and not like rehash, summer best ball debates, but I
do want to like, talk about Jacobs from like, I guess those
more philosophical perspective. Like, should we have seen this
coming in the offseason? I think everybody saw him as
this like true Dead Zone archetype.
And now he's getting sort of a legendary workload, almost the
past four weeks. 22, expected fantasy points per game.
You know, he's up there in the top five running backs.
In terms of percent of team snaps was getting a rush,
attempted route and he's also showing like massive efficiency.
Now, I think that's buoyed by some some touchdown lock, but
over the past four weeks, he's got 12 fantasy points.
Over expected per game to go along with that.
Massive workload. So yeah.
Like I didn't see this coming. Like what what are sort of are
there any lessons? I guess we can learn from this.
Josh shakeups thing for next offseason or do you think this
is just Randomness? And there's no way we could have
first of all, this No, there's a lesson.
The lesson is definitely draft Dead Zone, running backs, who
were former first-round picks or didn't get their fifth year,
options picked up because that's what happened with Jacobs.
If their option was declined last year, he spent a lot of
time talking about how he's trying to preserve his body for
free agency, you know? So it doesn't come as such.
It doesn't come as a surprise that, you know, one, the team
potentially is moving on, so they just going to use him as
much as they can. And then to he's going to do
what he can with that workload. I mean, you know, it helps that
he's playing, he's played, he's played some soft brush defenses.
Yeah, but also Davante Adams adds a new element to that
offense that defense is have to start respecting.
He's not just going to be slamming his body into into
loaded boxes. I don't, it's a very specific
scenario. The one that I think that I at
the most on is I tried to be Freddie player agnostic when
drafting basketball the one they like I would not have been able
to swallow the Josh Jacobs Bill had it been going in the fourth
round, right? Yeah.
That was what made him a bad big last year.
Was that he dank your team there, but this year and the
eighth ninth round. Yeah, sure.
That was great. But then I mean conversely and
this is something that that, that was excited to talk to you
about and when they returned, have a chance to talk about on
Sunday, show was Josh, Jacobs kind of defines what a League
winner looks like early on. Right.
But now with these, you know, eat Iain being really, you know
as Unleashed in Kenneth Walker, being on the show, like who do
you think whines up being that truly going?
Because we still don't know, right?
If you just look down Jacobs as well as one or as the true
running back League winner here or yeah I mean to cost cost
adjusted like what if I'm I think Jacobs is like yeah Best
Bet to be League winner costing us right now because like etm
was a third Pick. So that's not providing you as
much. Leverage is the J cups that you
could have. Got, I don't know.
I think he was even going in like the pic 80 to 100 range and
best ball by the end of it. My Meadow.
Yeah he's value tanked yeah yeah so I think like he it's weird to
say but I think he is definitely the best candidate to be a
League winner at the running back position right now.
I think you could throw a walker in the mix.
There's having a chance you could throw, you can certainly
throw. N or Berkeley in there as well.
Like will see how the season shakes out.
But man, the yeah the workloads been really good.
Deficiencies been really good. I think like maybe a lesson for
me on Jacobs is like, you know, when it seemed I think when a
team takes a running back in the second round or signs of running
back in free agency, with lot of money, then like it makes sense
to be scared about their workload going away.
I guess things. That would be Melvin Gordon and
Javonte last year. Like once you Vontae gets
drafted, the writing's on the wall, like Mel goes on his way
out. He's never like, he doesn't
really have a chance at getting a big workload outside of an
injury. But with Jacobs this offseason,
a lot of people were like saying, oh, you should fade
Jacobs. They drafted zamir white.
And they signed Brandon, Bolden and Ameer Abdullah Abdullah.
And it was all these like, you know, smear white day, three,
pick, Abdullah and bold in, like, kind of Of nobody running
back. Free agents that got tiny
contracts like it's we were like scared about you know, Josh
Jacobs because of guys that were insignificant or at least had a
chance to be insignificant. So I think I'm going to be wary
of of that going forward. If there's like a player that
people are already prone to be biased against like Josh Jacobs,
I want to be careful of arguments about fading them
because of competition. You know when the competition A
lot a lot weaker than I think. People were making it out to be.
Yeah, I will throw it back though, so I'm just looking at
his game log. So Josh Jacobs has exactly a
50-50 split in his, in his outcome and his historical
outcomes, right? So, weeks for five and seven, he
was an rb1, right? He scored north of 30 points.
Each of those three games then weeks.
One, two, and three. He couldn't get, he was an III,
write the highest he scored that week was like 50 like 14.5.
PPR points. So like I think some of this is
colored a little bit by recency bias especially given that he
smashed, right? But yeah to your point I mean,
from best ball. What do you want out of an
eighth or ninth round? Pick that right?
You want those 30-point explosions?
Yeah. So I think that might have been
a leak in our process. I think I think truly
considering a Bell cow running back when they fall just that
far. Right?
Like I don't think we should be feeding them at.
All right, if you get that guaranteed workload.
Yeah, I agree. Okay, moving on from Jacobs, I
did another player I wanted to hit on was Ramon Dre.
He shows up pretty well in this chart with sort of the top 12,
workload of the running back position.
Now, Damien Harris was out for a big stretch of what's shown here
on this chart. But he was back last week from
Andre, got 40 snaps to Damien. Harris has 922 routes run, its
Damien Harris. Has 58 targets of Damien, Harris
has to. So just across the board was
really out out playing Damien. I do think part of that is that
Damien was just coming back from injury and they're sort of
easing him back. But at the same time I think the
median outcome now is Ramon Dre and sort of a 65/35 split with
Damien maybe 6040. Whereas in the start of the
season, I think, after weeks, one or two, you might have said
the opposite to that. I don't really Without her
Madres playing, and how versatile he is and the passing
game compared to Damien. I saw Damien also had a bad drop
last night. That was that was it for him?
I think because I don't think we swam out for that, right?
Yeah, so yeah, just I'm bullish on Herm.
Andre, I guess if we're talking League winner category like I
think, I think he's there dude, I think he's there because like
because because Aaron Jones. So in week last week, Aaron
Jones with the highest running back Target, share with 30% and
then it Is Ramon Ray Stevenson a 29 percent, right?
Yeah. Like that is like that is going
to be what you need, right? Like against talking League
winners here like that like that I think you're very correct.
I think I think reminder represents we all know how Bill
Belichick loves rotating backs but you know here's the thing
this is a very different Patriots team you don't mean to
shuffling quarterbacks I don't think they can afford to play
Hammer back pass catching back specialist anymore Rimando kind
of gives them the best of what they've got like The best of
what they can get that his mission is modern NFL, right?
So I think that he's like, his, his role is fairly cemented.
He's not going to lose high-value touches to Damien,
man. It's going to be very difficult
for gaming to read, Riku a lot of that of that role.
Yeah, yeah, I agree. I think it's really wheels up
for Ramon J rest of season. Yeah, we talked about I guess I
don't think we've talked about briefs hall or the Jets
situation in much detail. Yeah.
That's Probably probably worth talking about Hall over the last
four weeks as got around a 15 Point per game.
Expected workload, such a bummer to see him go down.
Yeah. And you know, forgot.
Yeah. It he was definitely one of the
most exciting. Rookie running backs we've seen
in a while. So yeah, it sucks for guy like
that to jump right into the fantasy implications.
But for, for the Jets backfield, What do you like?
I see Carter here at nine expected fantasy points per game
on the next page on the next chart Halls at 15.
Do you think Ken, Carter, get up into sort of the low end rb1
territory? How are you sort of viewing him
the rest of the season? Now I think this is like I think
he's pretty much where this is going to be raised in a sort of
steady state for the rest of the week for the rest of the season.
Right there went out they traded and they treated nothing for
Jim. And Robinson Robinson.
Unfortunately lost his role to etn.
He might still have enough in the tank.
I still think the Jets. What what makes Carter
interesting is that he still going to see a lot of his
workload, come through the air. So I think realistically,
looking at that Den expected fantasy points for Michael,
Carter, on a weekly basis is nice because we know he's got
the juice to out. Kick that like that point
expectation, right? Like, we know, I know that he's
able to roll up, Yak, we know we can do stuff like that.
So, you know, provided once again, he is the lightning to
James Robinson's Thunder. You know, I'm fairly fairly
happy with him as a plug and play our B to rest of season.
This is a heads up for, for our, for you, for everyone, the wrote
of his strength of schedule app has the New York Jets as the As
soon as the ninth easiest strength of schedule remaining
here, which isn't bad. Yeah, sightly better than guys
like Dallas or whatever, right. But you can see, you can see
Carter coming on especially in games where they might be
trailing and stuff. So they also have a fairly soft
schedule at the end. The the the schedule is going to
Detroit Jacksonville in Seattle, the Let's do.
Yeah. So you can see Carter.
I mean all this is moot if Carter gets hurt or something
but like the you can see this big this.rb tandem really out
like provide big, big, big winds down, the stretch, they can be
actual money weeks. Yeah yeah I agree with that.
And yeah, it's like the Jets and we even saw this more early in
the season when Flacco was playing, but they really
followed a lot of expected points to the running backs
through the air with Wilson. We've seen them follow.
More expected points running backs on the ground as they sort
of have had games. Surprisingly where they've been
able to be in positive game strips and take leads and it's
just been a lot of rushing workload for those guys.
But yeah I just think it's a situation where the backfield
even without you know I think all going down, obviously means
they'll funnel less to the backfield but I still think it's
a backfield that's going to have a lot of points to the running
back position. So yeah I'm sort of viewing
Carter similar as Probably a mid to high-end rb2.
Maybe sort of like Mi Sanders range type type play going
forward. Yeah I and just to be clear, do
you does this mean you expect in my sanders just going to kind of
like scale back a little bit because he's been kind of also
like smashing. Yeah.
I think Yeah. I don't know.
I don't have a strong take on on Sanders.
I think it's funny because he's kind of gotten there so far on
touchdowns and his whole thing last year was he scored zero
touchdowns actually like quicking quickly flipping back
to the quarterback stuff Connor and I have talked about this for
Jaylyn hurts. Touchdown rate is really low
relative to his. Yes, accurate Jumped.
Yeah this is driven also by the fact that Jalen hurts short
scores a shit ton of rushing touchdown so he's like
cannibalizing himself on this chart to an extent.
But another part of it is that Sanders has had a bunch of short
one-yard, touchdown runs even Boston, Scott and Kenny gain,
well, I think there's some real. Yeah, real bullshit, River shit.
AJ Brown is gonna talk about the one and can he gain well as
gone? These like garbage, one-yard
touchdown rounds. But anyways, getting back to
Sanders like I don't I think Sanders will maybe slightly
their grass just on getting less lucky on touchdowns but I'm
still certainly like happy where I drafted Sanders this year to
have them on my team. I don't think he's like that.
A massive regression candidate he's clearly the starting
running back on a good offense in the NFL and that's like a
good a good player to have it. I guess I just think Carter has
a little more opsite upside and that he can consolidate like a
risk a bigger Receiving role then Sanders can and sort of in
PPR formats. Like I could see Carter having,
you know, an 8 catch game for 70 receiving yards in a way that
it's really hard for Sanders to sort of get there hard agree.
Yeah, yeah. We've spent a lot of time on
running backs, I know, like we didn't quite get into the second
chart. The only the one thing I wanted
to bring up and then I'll hand it to you if you wanted to
mention something was really John wait, he is not really
appeared on this chart much this season and he does barely sort
of get there with around 25% route or Rush attempt rate.
I just wanted to make the point and this is like less about the
data more sort of a narrative thing that the Bucs coaching
staff made some comments about how.
Let's see if the old players can still play, like we might need
to evaluate the younger players because these old guys aren't
getting it done. I saw Ah, that as a big warning
sign for fournette, who's not looked great the past couple
weeks. So we'll see if white gets a
chance at a bigger workload, like it's still more of a stash
and wait and see, and not somebody.
I'm starting but, you know, definitely a guy that I would
try to like throw into a trade if I'm trading with the league
mate or if you're in a really casual League where he's still
available on the wire like definitely a priority ad for me.
Yes, Anything on these like sort of middling running backs or
should we jump into wide receiver?
Nah nah. Nah, no notes here.
Except for the fact that Asia Dylan was way too highly drafter
to a fallen hair so real destruction of value.
Yeah he's he basically is just a only a handcuffed at this point
the drafted in the sixth round which is yeah that's like I mean
the definition of Hancock and like that is like yeah straight
straight straight devastation. But that's about it.
I mean, maybe maybe the only other guy I think we, we talked
about him on Sunday show but just to reiterate, like Antonia
Gibson. Probably sees a bit of a bump.
You had a good note on mckissick.
You want to just repeat that here?
Yeah, just that in the the Washington game.
Mckissick scroll was really marginalized and Gibson took
over a lot of the passing game work.
I also think that my other point was just on Robinson that he
definitely has an edge on. Gibson, in terms of workload
right now, especially in the Russian side.
But Gibson just looks so much more explosive that I think and
I think even hear the coaching staff say this maybe last week
that hey we gotta get Gibson more Luxe.
I think that Gibson like continuing to outplay Robinson
over a larger sample size, could get a more more work in the red
zone and and on early down. So yeah, I'm definitely like I
saw a Gibson drop in some of my casual leagues.
Like, I was definitely excited to to scoop it.
Him in some places. I think he has like two paths to
getting a bigger role rifle through Robinson and mckissick.
And I think both are like decently likely given his his
talent. But yeah, let's let's go to
water Seaver here. Now, the, I guess.
Yeah. Quickly discussing the trial
were looking at looking at wide receiver opportunity versus
fantasy points. So, here on the y-axis, we have
Fantasy points per game on the x-axis.
We have waited targets, per route run, which is targets for
about run, but adjusted for are yards to give more credit to
guys that are getting looks down the field.
First year Rondell more - a.type guys.
When I mean, the first thing that really jumps out here is is
the Hopkins return. He's breaking the chart here.
I had to kind of just draw a line off into the, the side here
for him because Has he came in with a hundred and twelve
percent waited targets per outrun to contextualize that
sort of the the next best guys. CD lamb Davante.
Adams DK Metcalf Cooper copper all around sort of 65 to 75
percent. So, you know, obviously one game
sample but that was really exciting for d-hop.
Any thoughts on him going forward?
Is this enough to sort of ranking as a wide receiver one
for the rest of the season or you or you more skeptical?
No, I'm within the wide receiver one because like looks like so.
So nuke is breaking the chart, right?
He's got that 112 percent way to Target spur out Ron, but just,
you know, you go straight to the left and you see Marquis Brown,
all right, be right. Hmm.
So to your point it is just like just had they'd both been there
then. Yeah, you can't do that.
It's going to be maybe the by is bigger and the scoring by is
bigger. But but, you know, we don't live
in that we don't, we're not allowed to have nice things.
Things. So so Marquis that's that's
where he is. I mean like this this the guy
who you expect to probably see come up a little bit more would
be Tyler Lockett especially falling that my calf injury.
Luckily, my calf avoided a major injury but he's going to miss
some time. Maybe takes a hit hit to his
efficiency, but opportunity is wheels up for him.
I wanted to get your take on this.
It would, Michael Pittman Junior.
Are you have him in the cell High, call them?
Which is very fair. And now it is moved.
You Sam. It linger.
Who is best known for his scrambling ability.
Like, what are we doing here folks?
Like, how are you can even get back for for Bittman?
Yeah, that's that's tough. It may be an opportunity in
casual leagues. Like people might just see is
over 15 points per game and fantasy and may not be paying
attention. Tension to the the quarterback
stuff. But yeah, I think Pittman is a
guy. That's his role is really not
sorry, excuse me, not as strong as his fantasy points scoring
would have you indicate so yeah, I don't know what you can get
for him, I guess if I was gonna like if I was going to try to
move him, I might go for. See if you can catch a Christian
Kirk, maybe Tyler. Tyler Lockett Amari Cooper.
Chris Godwin. Like any one of those guys that
have stronger roles and don't have sort of the, the downside
risk of this, this quarterback change coming their way.
Those are the types of names on probably looking for, if I can
get off Pittman, but yeah, I think he's like more in the
waters like wide, receiver, three range now than what you
drafted him, as a sort of a low-end wide receiver one.
You have what? One guy wanted to get your
thoughts on Saint was Amari Cooper, who I just mentioned.
What do you like? I think after last year in
Dallas, where he seemed to really take a step back and then
was traded for for almost nothing this year.
I think, a lot of people were expecting a pretty big
regression for him, especially with, with prosthetic
quarterback, but the role is looked looked pretty strong.
Where you sort of ranking Cooper, rest of season?
Do you think this this role is sort of here to stay?
Or is this a bit of an anomaly? Now it's I think it's here to
stay, right? Especially with this in Joker,
injury. Yeah, but it just opens up some
opportunity for him. What's really weird at least?
Is his home in a way splits at home, he's courting it, like 21,
fantasy points per game and I go away, he's like scoring five.
Meanwhile Donald Donovan people's Jones is like the exact
opposite at home. He's going like six and a way
he's wearing like 12 like I think a Marty Cooper is still a
very good player and especially if the team trades away.
Haunt, I mean, they're going to have to try to get someone,
right? So I think both of these guys
will do, you do well? Just wanted to do.
Wanted to get your take on. On, you know, like where and we
should expect the pie to grow when when Watson comes.
Yeah, yeah I think yeah I think the Watson thing is pretty
exciting for Cooper. The fact that he's been able to
get to around 15 points per game, even with Watson out is
pretty exciting. So yeah, I, uh, I don't know.
I'd be he's a guy. I have them here in the Bi-Lo.
He's a guy that I think could really explode down the stretch
as a Target, hog in a good passing.
Pence who not like your guess is as good as mine.
How Watson will look coming off of, you know, a year and a half
of not playing football, but I have a hard time believing,
he'll be worse than Jacoby Brissette.
So, yeah, it seems like if you can get him, sort of add value
right now, it seems sort of like a low risk high.
High upside play. Yeah.
What a move on to the next. First chart of wide receivers
but just for people following along and audio want to throw
out a couple other like potentially interesting.
By Lowe's the show up in this chart we have deante Johnson and
George Pickens who just misses the by low category but I would
put both of those guys in that grouping, I still think they
will have more fantasy value than they've shown down the
stretch. I also think Cooks DJ more and
Zeta-Jones, Are interesting as well.
Obviously different different price points for those guys but
those are all guys whose roles look stronger than what they've
scored so far this season. Moving on to the next charge.
Now, we're looking at wide receivers that have run 65 to 85
percent of their team's routes, same chart, but just sort of
more, like, close to full time players, but but not quite man,
we've talked about the Falcons a bit, but that's all I guess.
I want to start here with Drake London, truly in a lean Elite.
It's for Route run, but truly just one of the worst passing
offenses for Fantasy scoring that I've seen in a while.
Yeah. How are you?
How are you ranking? Drake London the rest of the
season, or like, what is there? Anything left here is there is
there like a ceiling that's left here or are you starting to
lose? Hope on the Drake London
experience? This it gets.
It depends because I do I don't think I have many guys with
higher upside than Drake London. So, I'm just going to have to
keep plugging them in like I don't know how, I don't know how
I'm going to click on starting in a quantity of same brown over
Drake London or a diary is taken over Drake London, right?
Becomes very difficult to make those type of plays.
Marvin Jones over Drake, London, I think you just gotta plug them
in and pray. I mean, it's just such a shame
for such a high-powered. Citing rookie player to be
dragged down like this. What would you would you start
wandel Robinson or Drake London? Like not rest of season but just
like say next week what? Oh that's actually I probably
try one dollar. One Dale, one day.
I'll yeah I think I think you just have to he's been he's look
really good assuming the injury I know I did get banged up but
assuming he's healthy. Yeah it's assuming he's assuming
he's healthy for sure. The only other guy who really
stands to me. Like I don't Thanks falls in the
cell High category would be John Dodson.
He might actually be on your waiver wire.
So pick him up. If he is, and you need wide
receiver help because he's kind of got big by potential, let me
see that. Yeah, I like Dalton to, and
yeah, we've seen that like, heinicke.
Can, it can be okay. I think, especially like this is
kind of just a hand there. Take from watching heinicke, but
he just Chuck's it up deep. And we've seen Datsun win on
those types of plays. It's all iconic.
He's particularly accurate or good at doing it, but he If he
takes chances, it's almost like a Connor - you're watching
Jamis. Back in the day when he was just
out of control and Tampa Bay, just kind of running around and
Hawking out hooking up prayers. So that could, you know, it's
going to be inconsistent four wide receivers but could lead to
something plays yet. Another continue the trend of
talking about rookie wide receivers.
I think a lob a he shows up here in the strong performers but
again and you're more any more casual leagues.
Like he's a guy that I'm trying to trade for his role is truly
Elite. He looks yeah, he looks really
good out there and you know eventually Mike Thomas.
Should be back eventually, Landing should be back maybe
that drags down his opportunity a little bit but I still expect
him to be the number one there in New Orleans and yeah.
Again, his role looks to be outpacing how he scored so far
this year. So I'm definitely buying Crystal
of a Yeah. Any other receivers in this
chart that that jump out to you a song not in yet.
I mean, realistically, we know who's good and who's not.
I mean, maybe the guy was really, still keep an eye on his
taekwon Thornton, but he really came back to Earth yesterday.
I think Aaron Rodgers hate all of his own wide receivers, to
surprised to see Romeo tubes up there.
And as for the rest, I mean, like, this is who you I really
don't know what I'd be doing with Robert.
Bobby Woods. He's kind of the last man
standing right now, but like, three long Burke should be back
at some point. So I think that that's just like
a bug them, if you have, plug-and-play, if you have them,
but brush will be back at some point.
Yeah, yeah, I agree. I think like what this is the
worst start, but he's not someone.
I'm really excited about the rest of the season.
Yeah, I agree. I agree with your other points.
I think on the, on the Packers thing, like I got excited about
Dubs even this offseason got all excited about Watson but
sometimes the the most boring answers are right?
One. I think the answer in Green Bay
is Allen Lazard. You know, he's not even hurt.
What is gonna? What you say when he got hurt.
Did he get hurt? Okay?
Yeah, severity of the injury is still unknown but I did not.
I missed that one. Okay, well they turned around
Aaron Jones though, so okay, interesting, I miss that.
So yeah. I don't know, maybe that opens
up more opportunities for jobs or someone like Watson, but man,
dubs is like, not, not looked great out there from an
efficiency standpoint or a Target learning standpoint.
So it's it's really hard to like, get that excited about.
I'm even if if Lazard were to miss time.
But yeah, let's, let's move on to the last Wide receiver chart
here. Don't have to spend a ton of
time. Again, this is, these are guys
that are more rotational players, earning between 40 to
65 percent of their team's routes.
I think the one like the most fantasy relevant player besides,
am on Rossi and brown is, who's kind of only on here because of
an anomaly of how the data works.
Like he got one snap last week before he got hurt, so that's
why he shows up in this category.
He's, you know, obviously must start stud if he's healthy, but
the other fantasy relevant guy, I want to talk about here was
was Juan Dale. He shows up here as having
around a sixty percent, waited targets, for Route run.
That's a really strong metric. And over the last two weeks, I
think he was at, like, 25% of routes the week 1 and then up to
closer to like 70 80 percent last week, as long as he's
healthy, he's earning a pretty strong opportunity.
And the Giants are, if you watch the game.
So they're clearly scheming Touches for him.
I think he like started off the game having four catches for 12
yards or something like that. It was short scheme stuff, but
in PPR like, that's that's what we want for, you know, how you
acquired in probably on waivers or last round pick.
Like that's a, that's a solid Flex that you can.
You can throw in your starting lineup, most weeks.
Yeah. Any other notes, that's a lot
of, man. A lot of guys, just a lot of A
lot of prayers here, Nicole I mean McColl, maybe you might
want to hold him if you can find them off waivers.
I don't think I've been trading for him at all and God knows
when you play and we've got to be what a few apocalyptic by
Reese coming up so that's probably when you're playing but
yeah, sorry. That like you really if you're
starting to like you know any of these guys God God save you.
Yeah I will know like there is this interesting cluster of
Bashan. Perryman Scotty million.
Gal. And I think that just kind of
speaks to like if Godwin and if Godwin or gauge is out.
And one of those guys is in there like as the water receiver
three, it's not a terrible bet to make just because the Box
they haven't look good but they're throwing a lot.
Brady does Target sort of that deep threat wide receiver three
in the form of Perryman Miller Julio so and weeks were being
get a read on who that guy is going to be if one of the
starters mrs. Time.
Like, I think it's an interesting, like, we're talking
maybe more like DFS men. Price type type.
Yeah. Yeah.
I just thought that's an interesting cluster here.
And then, yeah, if you can even name, like what team Mason
Kenzie, or Keith Kirkwood is on and the bottom left here than
your true, true psycho, I've no idea who these guys are.
So, throw a quick peek work. Keith Kirkwood is action on the
Panthers. They hung a line.
I think, I think, I think you on the Panthers are me just check
on that one for you. Nobody hung a lot.
They hung the line for him. Yeah.
Apparently he is a free agent right now.
Ah, he might be, he might have played for them a few weeks ago,
or something. And he showed up here because of
that because you can see cuz he used to be a saint.
I remember anyway, I would at least heard of him.
Mason Kenzie and now, like, everyone else.
I've got to stand out, but I'd never heard of Mason kids, I
guess, he's on the Titans. He looks like he looks like a
lacrosse player that valchek would have signed to the Special
Teams is that. I just said disaster, run out
for the Titans and there are no wide receivers.
Yeah. All right, let's finish off your
with the tight ends. So for this chart here, what's
changed from past weeks, for those who have followed along
is, I'm now looking at a four-week rolling average for
the tight end. As opposed to the full season.
So this is just looking at weeks four through seven for tight and
utilization efficiency, shown on the chart, here are all tight
ends that have greater than 65 percent of routes, run on their
team's drawbacks. And you can also see the targets
for Route Ron and a DOT on this chart here to get a sense of,
you know what tight ends are being used as wide receivers
with hire, a dots to higher targets for outrun like marked
Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, which guys are sort of in the In
the grocer, like tight end up off rolls with lower targets for
out, Ron lower a dots guys like that.
You know, your sort of Dawson knox's Hayden hearse profile.
As more of those types of guys, So yeah, looking at this chart
here, I think you know the thing I think that people will be most
interested in talking about is the Greg dulcich role.
They have immediately thrown him into sort of a full-time role in
terms of pass routes. He's running about 80 70 to 80%
of the team's past routes, past, two weeks, and is also had a
pretty strong Target around a 20%.
That's not, yeah. Neat.
But that's, that's pretty good. With an, a DOT of around 10.
So he's being used down the field to some extent.
Yeah, I guess. Like, how would you is still
such a tight end? One now, is it is that to too
extreme to jump to that or how are you sort of viewing him for
the rest of the season? Yeah I mean he's at I think he's
at I mean is that usage pretty much puts him right into that
died and one number right? Like he's yeah I mean it just it
just drug dosages world and we're just living in it.
I mean, I you say that like I think the game against the Jazz
stay, we should kind of a stress that if only because sauce
Gardner Absolutely ruined Courtland son's.
Life sauce Gardener is really, really good and so that's where
you getting some of that from from dosage but does it is a
very very talented at what he's done.
He's definitely not everything room.
All right now where you just? I mean, you have them.
You got to start. I'm like I'll give you, I'll
give you a question. Did you Hawkinson or Greg dosage
this week, who has more people are points?
Mmm. I'm honored as bad as going to
be back so it was like a Russian I think I would think I would go
dosage, right? Yeah and this is at the point
and one of them was a highly drafting the sixth round kind of
guy and the other one is like awful waivers, right?
So I think these are I think I think that that is it.
The kind of that's the kind of I think that's the range you're
talking about. Yeah, like and I say that like I
don't want to send over. Offering that, technically, I
think it's very close, right? They profile, very similarly,
but like Deezer, but this is what you're getting from the any
tight and not named Mark Andrews or Travis Kelce right?
Like, like, like George cattle started to tear himself away.
Dallas, Carter has started to take care of way, but then
you've got like and he's and, you know, colca mascot heard it
ludicrous, a DOT for the pathetic targets for rat rod,
right? Yeah.
He's the new looking at your Hayden hearses and stuff like
that, right? So I think that that's right
where Where you were just plug him in it.
And and I think do that and the same guy who's making that kind
of like noises Robert onion. Right.
Because we just we just talked about how the factors don't have
any good receivers. While 22% targets, but run on a
very shallow a DOT gets you a lot of cheap OPP our points
right? Yeah yeah I think he's
definitely a guy. You can look to if you're
desperate I Den but yeah it really it does feel like this
season more like more than anything else.
It's Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce in the tear their own.
And then like, man, you can't like after that, it's just a
flat Superflat list of guys, you know, I'd probably put kid'll
there three. And then after that like I don't
care how you rank. It's like this for through like
the Justine like it. Yeah, it's yeah.
Whoever finds Pay Dirt is going to be like add.
I didn't want, you know, yeah I do.
An interesting discussion is Harrison Brian for folks in Main
Event football guys or sort of any tight end Premium League
Joker, who is gonna be out to 26, or two to five weeks.
I believe the report was and he's had a fairly Elite role for
a tight end. 21% targets were out running, that's quite good.
He's had around 80% of his team's.
He's running around on 80% of his team's drawbacks.
That's also quite good. Think.
Yeah, if you were, if joke who hadn't gotten her, I think a lot
of people would have put in in sort of the top six, top five,
tight end category for the rest of the season.
Somewhere around there. Do you think Harrison Brian
immediately steps into that role that like going forward?
I mean, obviously, joke will be back at some point, but would
you rank Harrison Bryant as you would have ranked in joke?
Ooh, you know, for the next couple weeks, or do you think
there's sort of a talent Gap? There I wouldn't, I wouldn't put
it. 121. I do think the Harrison Bryant
actually showed flashes, even when playing with Joe who last,
like last season, the last few seasons, she's actually fairly
talented in my opinion. Yeah, that's kind of a stealth
opinion that I've kept to myself for quite some time.
But, if you look across my Dynasty right, rosters?
I promise of what a lot of Patterson Bryant.
Yeah, I think he's definitely startled.
I don't know. Like, I think I would prefer do
Stitch over Harris and Bryant. Yeah, but, but yeah, he's
definitely definitely one of the guys who you The guy who catches
my eye really on this list, and we talked about the Chargers as
injuries earlier is Gerald Everett, right?
With Mike Williams said to me sometime and this, you know, we
could see Gerald Everett potentially being working his
way into like that top five tight end list.
Mmm. Yeah, I think that's a good one
to point out just with how bad that wide receiver room is for
the Chargers jail. Diverted someone he definitely
gets Has a slight boost but yeah back there's and bright.
I think I'm with you there. Not quite one to one with Joe
coup but pretty close in teams where maybe in joke, was my
starter, and I had nothing else. I would be pretty aggressive on
on Bryant. I think I think like 100 to 200
dollar bid is okay. And if you're really desperate
like and you really at this point, like we're at the point,
this season is leagues were if you need a win like it's okay to
overspend for a guy who Be a good spot.
Start the tight end, Waiver Wires is often pretty pretty dry
in those leaks. So Brian's going to be out
there. I'm okay with yeah, 200 even
even higher than that on some teams.
Yeah it really random like deep note that I think is interesting
Armani Rogers is a name that I had not really heard of but he's
on the Washington football team and he got some decent run last
week. I think I believe both.
Logan, Thomas and liking on the back up, Bates.
John be done baby. Yep, we're both out and it was
Cole Turner the week before this week, it seemed to be a lot more
and Arnie Rogers. I think he was just sort of
interesting note. I think he played some
quarterback, neither college and high school and they did have
him out there for some Wildcat snaps.
Yeah, one red zone. So yeah, if you're like super
desperate at tight end and you get news that both Thomas and
baits are can going to continue to be out?
I think at this point I would be Armani Rogers over to Cole
Turner. But yeah, again, this is super
desperation mode. If you're if you're looking at
Are those guys? Yeah.
Hey yeah. I could be the Arbitrage taysom
hill. Come on now.
Yeah. Why?
Yeah, why draft a steel mill in the 14th round and you can't get
Armani Rogers and 18th? That's that's what I was saying,
all offseason. But yeah, man, any time we're
talking about Armani Rogers, it's usually a sign that the
shows the show is over, always got to mention one tight end on
the show that nobody has ever heard of before.
But yes, Song. That was a lot of fun.
Thanks for. Thanks for hopping on, and
thanks for having me, going through these stats, anything
you want to plug before we close out here.
Now, follow me at HR 5010 and check out the fantasy football
report on Sundays. We record a 7 p.m. or check us
out and Spotify or wherever you find your favorite favorite
apps. Sam was there with us on Sunday,
definitely heavily recommendation.
That show one of the best ones we've done all season.
Yeah, that was a lot of fun, definitely recommend checking
that out. But yeah, thanks to everyone for
tuning in and I'm glad we all got together for for Harrison
Brian week. I will see you guys next week.