The date is July 8th and we're absolutely starved for NFL news.
Desperate times call for desperate measures.
ADP chasing listeners. Get ready to learn who Will
Mallory is, buddy. ADP chasing is for when you
watch ship chasing you go these guys are just football guys.
And the targets for outrun leagues, that's going to be
really nice. Actually back in if it's Asha
neck. Compared to our crystal ball,
close your eyes, you know all your entries are going to lose.
Anyway, yeah. That's fair.
This is a Deuce von show. It's anti cabal, it's anti the
best ball thought leader. I'm obviously lying to some
degree because like, I have a lot of both of these guys.
It's the most disgusting thing you can make, but.
Man, but that's fair. Tilting Face really got me this
week. It's something new.
It's something new every time. I mean, really, it can't be.
It can't be overstated. How good?
It is for the audio listeners. You really got to check out the
the animation that goes along with it really, really brings
the clip together. Really impressive work.
But yeah, welcome guys. As I teased in In the Cold Open,
we're going to be talking through late round tight ends
this week. Really.
Another week of just absolutely no NFL news.
I think training camps are gonna start to kick off next week, so.
God, God, I hope so. We.
Need it we. We, we do need it.
I don't think they fully like, I don't think veterans report
until like the very end of the month.
Yeah, I think each team has a slightly different schedule, if
I remember correctly, but it's something like in a week or 10
days. Yeah.
Oh yeah, that makes once. Once it once it hits it's it's.
That, that's the thing, is we're all begging for it right now.
And then once the fire hose starts.
It never stops. It doesn't stop.
Feel like we're drowning for the next six months, so yeah, what
you wish for. Right, enjoy this time.
I know it feels a little slow, but you know.
Drafting, drafting right now, drafting right now does feel
insane. It's like I'm just going to do
the same draft I've done each day for the last 50 days.
And you know what? Basically like once training
camp starts, it starts feeling like you have a mission, like a
swole cast ass mission. Like, oh, I got to make sure I
get Lucas Kroll in this one. You know like like you have to
be reacting to things live. Yeah.
But I think I kind of like that where you're going.
What is this, you know, what is this period of time offer that
maybe won't be offered later? And let me try to to go in and
get that, you know, like I did a big dog and I was like, I'm
going to try to get the Hertz. I was on the back half of the
board and I was like, I'm going to try to get the A.J.
Brown Hertz with Hertz in the fourth round, which I did.
And that's that's very fun. You know, So I think going into
draft knowing some of these things like you know, they, most
of you know, those, those stacks that are available with the
fourth round quarterbacks is, is one of the things I'm trying to
prioritize. That makes sense.
So yeah, we'll get into the tight end stuff now before I
pull up any visuals, I think the basic premise of today's show, I
think it's it's been pretty well covered.
If you listen to fancy podcast, you consume content that this is
a good year for elite tight end. The tight ends are generally
priced down and also maybe a a decent year for sort of the mid
to late elite tight ends. I don't know what we call them,
but guys like David and Joku, Brock Bowers, maybe Pat
Fryermuth, I think there actually is some solid depth in
the sort of tight end. Tight end Famously always deep.
It's never It's all deep. Normally I'm smart enough to to
to not to know that's not true, but this year it feels kind of
true. I, I I.
It always feels kind of true. It always feels kind of true.
It's never once been true. It's never been true.
Yeah. I mean, we here's the deal, Sam.
You messed up the title, though. We we did, you know we did.
Who's this year's Kyron Williams?
Who's this year's Pukanukuo? We should have done.
Who's this year's Trey McBride or Jake Ferguson?
Yeah. And you missed the trick.
I think I pitched that to to Pete.
He's the one in charge of the titles here.
He might have been tired of all the clickbait we've been gone
with, so he switched that one up on me.
But that was the pitch I gave. But yeah, I I think like what
we're going to do on today's show, we're going to skip past
the elite tight end tier. We're even going to skip past
like the Friar Muth and Joku Goddard tier.
We're going to go deep, I'd say into 80 PS of, you know, 160
plus and really hunt in there because even though I I assume
it's kind of your guy's strategy too.
I am generally leaning towards elite tight end or sort of then
Joku Bowers grouping this year. But it still comes to end of the
draft. Often times.
Maybe you need a second tight end.
Maybe you really got pushed out of that build and you do need to
go for the three tight end late strategy.
So it's still good to have targets in this range, even if I
think the general consensus is that we prefer elite tight end
strategy. Well, I think this ADP
environment in some ways sets up really well for wanting to add
on late tight ends, even if it is 1/3 tight end.
And I've, you know, I talked about this on best ball
breakfast a lot, but it's like the running backs that you can
grab starting in like round seven, maybe round six, right.
We're like, I don't loving the receivers here.
It's really after that tear break in round seven for me.
But you grab those, those running backs, they're starting
running backs. They're potential workhorse
running backs like Romandre Stevenson, right?
You're getting guys that are projected for like a lot of
touches, James Conner, you know, And so you end up with these
running back rooms where you don't need six.
You waited until round seven to take your first running back.
You don't 6. So now, OK, so I, I need, let's
say I take 5 running backs. I got like the, the team I built
with Pete today. We, we grabbed 4 running backs,
we tacked on Ty Chandler, but the 4th running back was Javonte
Williams. You know, it was like James
Connor, Javonte Williams, Raheem Monster, David Montgomery.
We tack on Ty Chandler so that that unlocks a roster spot.
But then the wide receivers, they're priced up and they're
not just priced up at the beginning that, you know, a lot
of these like even like guys with jobs like Rashad Bateman
are, are very expensive. So it's you get to the end of
drafts and it's like, man, I mean, I guess I could take like
Khalif Raymond again, but like, it's not exciting.
I do not, I do not, I do not cosign.
Yeah, no, I know. I'd rather take Dawson knocks.
That's kind of what I'm getting
to like there should because OK, I'm, I'm basically, I could take
Will Shipley or some running back flyer.
That's I think that's an acceptable use of the pick, but
it's not that exciting. I don't need it.
And then, you know, it's easier to see like, OK, what would
actually help me get through one of these single weeks, these,
you know, week 15, week 16, like it's probably the easiest thing
is I bink a touchdown from a tight end.
Maybe I bink a couple touchdowns from a later on tight end.
All of a sudden I I'm through, but the tight ends kind of suck.
So like I want to find I want to find answers here because I
think like even on like Kittle Gottard, right, years past,
we're done. We're done.
Kittle Gotter. We're not taking a third this
year. I think you could take a third
structurally. It's just that like, who is that
guy? Yeah, and we'll talk about it,
but so this visual I've pulled up here, I did my best to
organize depth T tight end depth charts in terms of ambiguity and
what really stuck out to me, if you look at this column on the
far right, I titled this complete ambiguity.
There's basically six teams where the basketball market is
just not selecting a winner at all.
The Panthers, Broncos, Colts, Chargers, Rams, Giants,
basically no tight ends are being drafted from those teams
at all. I guess Jelani Woods at like ADP
of two O 7 is getting selected some.
The rest of those guys are ADP of 214 for even the starter.
So they're if we can like pick the spots here and find the
right guys that are definitely could be some value late as we
get into it. It's just it's a bit tricky.
So it's really a A-Team by team basis.
We'll go through this and try our best to pick out.
The well I want to start. I want to start by taking
Umbridge with one of your rankings.
I know this is not the the point.
Of sure, go ahead. It very much is the point of the
program. I I, I I would like to take
Umbridge with the idea that the Arizona Cardinals do not have an
exciting backup tip tip. Ryman was the third draft, the
tight end of this class. He was a third round pick,
second round pick maybe. And yeah, and and he was not a
receiving guy. So, you know, the likelihood is
that he just ends up being one of these who drew sample type
guys that like was randomly drafted in the third round and
then just blocks for his entire career.
But I expect that to be like a very good offense.
Like I actually think the Cardinals are could be the 7th
best offense in the NFL kind of pretty easily.
And were McBride to be injured the the guy who weighs 270 lbs
and ran A4640I. I mean, again, like, not like I
was grinding tip Ryman film, but 86th overall pick kind of
intriguing. Yeah, I don't know anything
about him. In my head, I kind of treated
him like like Brenton Strange or like Luke Schoonmacher, like one
of these second round tight ends that's just a blocking guy.
So I'll be honest, I haven't looked into him much.
But if you want to group the Cardinals into that like
exciting contingent category with the likes of the Bills?
Can I interest you in a guy who changed position from wide
receiver to tight end on the Arizona Cardinals?
Is like Jordan Matthews on the team or something?
Elijah Higgins used to be a wide receiver and they converted him
to they converted him to tight end.
So I I never thought I'd be the one I have to say this, but we
got, we got to keep this tight, guys.
We got a lot of Ryman. Ryman was just the starting
tight end for the Cardinals. We wouldn't draft him.
Like Theo Johnson, Ryman is an intriguing backup.
Yeah, let's let's, let's try to keep this on.
We're gonna, this is quick. Let me get off the rails if we
don't write it in here, but there are a couple teams.
So in terms of ambiguity, this isn't a perfect way to do it.
I actually wanted to start with four teams that I think are not
ambiguous in terms of the tight end depth chart.
But do you have very late ADP's that's on this far left column
here, the Dolphins, Patriots, Seahawks and Bucks?
I'll pull up some of the advanced stats on those guys
here. But yeah, starting with Ukraine.
Do you I guess agree with my premise that the depth charts on
these teams are are pretty clear cut?
And then if you agree with that, any of these guys jump out as
targets. Again, all these guys are going
ADP of 175 plus I guess Hunter Henry's at 160, but all very
late round tight end targets. Yeah, I think all of these guys
belong here and all of these guys are targets.
K Dotton is a little less exciting as far as like what
he's actually going to do from a target earning perspective.
But like one of the ways to attack late, late round tight
end is to just pay for routes and you're getting that with K
dot. And as far as like searching for
big breakouts and everything, paying for routes has never been
my favorite way to go. I think tight ends like we want
the guys who can actually earn targets, But if it's cheap and
it's best ball, right, Like I just need a guy to like get in
the end zone a few times, hopefully at the end of the
season and be the clear cut starter.
Like I mean, it's a it's a decent enough way to play it in
my mind where he's priced like I have him rated. 86105 is like
totally fine for all of these guys on the screen right now.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. But I mean like, so Hunter
Henry, it won't surprise you to learn, is probably my favorite
of these guys. We're all found another way to
do this I. Mean, honestly, he is.
Because I mean, you, you're betting on, yes, you're betting
on Drake May, which I'm very much doing.
But like you're getting the correlated upside of like a
breakout. Whereas Otten, you're kind of
almost paying for last year's Baker Mayfield resurgence a
little bit and hoping that it stays where like if, if May's
good, Henry would be going quite a bit higher.
So I like I like Henry a lot. He's my third highest drafted
tight end at 15%. Noah Fance, my fourth highest
drafted guy at 13%. I think he's he's pretty strong
as far as like we know this guy is an athletic receiver.
I don't know like how good he is and and it's not like there's a
ton of targets available, but previously he was getting taken
off the field like for half the routes because they're bringing
in blocking guys and that probably doesn't happen.
I mean that's gone now. Hopefully the guys are gone,
right? This Lee's gone, so it's not
like they're literally not there.
So I think fans probably in the 70% route participation range
now, which is like an acceptable, he's like kind of in
the 50s before and that's probably where Jonnu is too.
And Jonnu is another guy. He's like he's been fun after
the catch. He's done well in this type of
system. So I I'm at 11% Jonnu, another
guy that I'm I'm very comfortable with.
Yeah, and I think all like what jumps off the screen here to me
is, you know, Jonnu, Noah, fan, Hunter, Henry, all career 1.5
yards for Outrun, around 18 to 19% targets for outrun.
Like that's pretty good for a tight end.
It's certainly not elite like we're looking for a 20.
Percent plus targets. For Outrun, but yeah, like we're
going to see some really gross tight end stats when we go
through the show today. Like if you can get that level
of per route efficiency at this late of a price, I don't really
understand why Phant and Jonnu in particular are going so late.
I guess with Jonnu, he he hasn't really been trusted as a run
blocker through a lot of his career.
Like he's never run more than 300 ish routes in a season.
He's always kind of been a part time tight end.
I guess that's the concern with him is that they don't trust him
for the running plays with HN and Moser and Smythe works in
more than you want. But the rest of these guys I, I
don't think there's a lot of routes risk for like any of
these other guys. They're all pretty good
blockers. I, I've got a, I've got a route
to risk for Otten, which is that they really didn't have a third
wide receiver they liked last year.
So they were doing a lot of they were doing like a lot of 12 and
they their base personnel like always had a tight end in and it
seems like our boy, the Mcmillionaire seems like their
plan is to play him a little bit.
So they might just have less heavy personnel.
And I mean, like we just saw here .9 yards per out run.
Like what? What is the difference between
him and Kokeef? If if the if the blocking is is
the point. I just am not that into Auten
because I'm not that into Buccaneers stacks that that that
would be. Yeah, I just like the chat just
said it. Otten played like the most snaps
of any time in football and had the one spike week in the
regular season. I I think he probably, you're
right, is like pretty safe to play, but the upside.
Is real, real low. What I don't think that chat
realizes is that like, that's not all that common in that a
team doing that with Otten is likely to do it again.
Like it's not like a thing that randomly happened.
This guy in his second season played all the snaps at tight
end. That's bullish.
It just is right now. Is he good?
No, he's and he's he's not. He's especially not good as a
receiver, but he's he's trusted, right?
It's kind of the, you talk about this, you talk about this all
the time. Tight end development is like
not linear guys can be awful awful awful and then just like
randomly be good for 18 games in a.
Row. I mean, this one does.
Happen. We heard Tyler Higbee sucked for
years, right? And and he does, he did kind of
suck, but like he was kind of OK, especially when he was
cheap. But like Higbee, people might
not remember, but like it was Higbee and Gerald Everett.
They gave Higbee an extension. Everett moved on.
And then they just like played, they just gave Higbee the full
job. Like I am interested in that
even though I don't think, you know, the guy's that good, but
it's like at a certain point and Otten I think is at the point.
I think he's very draftable. I I'm at like 6% hot and I'm not
like a huge Otten Bowl, but like I think he's very draftable.
He's not a wasted pick because he's a clear cut starter at
tight end that that has value. Yeah.
And and we'll get into these other teams where like we're
probably talking tight end like 3 way, four way tight end
committees. I feel good about Alton being
the start of there. So I agree with Ukraine.
I think he's definitely draftable.
Another weird note I'll say in Alton is that his best like
statistical games of his career have all come in the NFL
playoffs. So I think fantasy managers are
not really paying attention to it.
Last year, two games in the playoffs in the wild card round,
I believe against Philadelphia, 11 targets, 89 yards, 8
receptions. Then against the Lions, 8
targets, 5 receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown.
Also had four for 58 on 7 targets in the 2022 playoffs
against Dallas. So again, that's baked into
these numbers. So the .9 here bakes.
In those good games. Yeah, but so again, you can't
get too excited about it. But I do think people are
probably forgetting those playoff games a little bit with
on, which makes him look a little better than the regular
season stats would show. Yeah, but yeah, let's.
There's one side that I think should be in this list,
actually. Yeah.
What do you think? I think Tyler Conklin should be
in this list. Yeah, we'll we'll get to Conklin
later. I I have an argument for why
not, but we'll definitely. Yeah, that's a 17 minute segment
coming up. Yeah, OK, great.
Yeah, buddy, get ready to learn Jeremy Ruckert.
All right? No.
No, I was hoping we would start here.
Yeah, this gets it. So we're now going into this,
the completely ambiguous tight end depth charts, starting here
with Carolina Jatavian. Sanders is the favorite by ADP.
He's being drafted a little bit at an ADP of 213.
There's also Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas here.
Davis, you, you have any takes on the Panthers?
Cause the market's basically completely ignoring them right
now. No person cost himself more
money at this year's NFL scouting combine than Jatavian
Sanders. Jatavian Sanders, 19 years old,
the University of Texas. He's playing with first round
pick Xavier Worthy. He's playing with first round
pick Bijan Robinson. He's playing with Roshan
Johnson, Jonathan Brooks, yadda yadda, so on and so forth.
He is second on the team in receptions.
He is second on the team and receiving touchdowns.
He's 4th on the team in total touchdowns overall, ahead of
other guys who are NFL players. Keelan Robinson, NFL player,
Jordan Whittington, NFL player. I mean, if he could have just
ran a freaking 4-5 dude, I don't know.
I don't know what. Maybe he was hurt, maybe I don't
know what it is, but if that guy could have just put on a like if
he could have had an 8.67. Ras, he, he would have been a
second, right? He would have been the 50th
overall pick. I don't know what.
Happened to him. Do you wanna?
Do you know his vertical off the top of your head?
It like 7 inches. I mean it's, it's one of I think
his Ras was like I think his Ras was like 3.
I, I I If I remember correctly, I think his.
Ras, it's actually 3.53. I mean, I, I don't know.
I don't know, I don't know what it is.
I don't know what it is, but I it's like if we get to it's week
9 and Jitavian Sanders is running 77% of the routes and
him and Adam Thielen are like Spider man pointing meme like
targets per game. I'm not going to be, I'm not
going to be surprised. I'm really not going to be
surprised. The thing with Sanders that's
difficult is that he wasn't like that productive, right?
And he's kind of it was this like promise of like, yeah, he
was sort of behind these other two stars.
And The thing is though, he's very athletic and the NF LS
really gonna like him. And then he wasn't athletic.
He wasn't athletic. Good round.
So like the bull case took a huge hit during the draft
process and during the draft itself and I've just had a
really hard time being excited after that.
I mean, he he peaked with 1.86 yards per outrun.
He's at 1.81 over his career. It's not like a huge red flag,
but like it it like what is the bull case now?
Is a third round pick unathletic and not particularly productive?
I guess it's like that he's young and he once had pedigree,
but it it feels kind of Irv Smithy to me.
Or we're just like, it was exciting once, so let's draft
him for five years. Very, very Irv Smithy.
And you said third round, Crane, I assume you meant you meant day
three, right, 'cause he was like a what?
Fourth round? Fifth round No.
I keep, I keep thinking he did go in the third round.
He didn't. Where did he go?
Fourth round. Fourth round.
OK, God. All right, Well, I'm over.
I'm overstating the draft capital in my bear case.
Yeah. So here here's like that's,
that's not great. That's really not great.
The the only bull case I can come up with is here.
Here is his competition and obviously a tight end more
matters than receiving efficiency.
Blocking and stuff matters a lot at tight end.
So this doesn't like rule these guys out.
But Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas, they've ran a lot of
routes in their NFL careers and have just been God awful.
These these are these are dog shit NFL players.
These are like some of the worst you're gonna.
Find Yeah, yeah. And we definitely never took Ian
Thomas in Round 8. I'm in a I'm in a, a long term
dynasty league that an industry guy that I won't name traded
AA2024 first at the time in 2021 for Ian Thomas.
He was like, I gotta get him, I gotta get him.
He had hype, man. He had that one.
He had like four games at the back half a season when Greg
Olson was leaving and he's athletic and we were like the
next guy. We found him.
Yeah, Crane, from your prospect research, do you remember
anything about Jetavian Sanders blocking ability 'cause that
strikes me as a big deal. If not, it's all good 'cause I
do think that the one like bull case, I'm not drafting Sanders
now, but I will say the the Dave Canales, you know, the fact that
he was willing to just have Kate Alton out there for 100% of
snaps last year does make me somewhat interested.
Like if it comes out in the preseason that Sanders is the
starter that that would kind of surprise me honestly as a round
4 rookie, if you earn that. But if he did, I don't know.
I'm I'm just not like he's the only guy on my radar as like a
potential flyer. If we get good buzz 'cause these
other guys I know Josh Norris over at underdog was was hyping
up Tommy tremble. Sorry Josh.
I'm I, I just really, I don't get what he's seeing with that.
Sanders run blocking grade his last year at Texas, 61.5 at PFF.
Which is like no, it's fine. Not not enough to be a
specialist, not enough to say you gotta take him off the field
for it. Yeah, yeah, it's, I would say
it's like a very minor red flag, but like Sanat was at 67, Bowers
was at 75, which is one reason I think he's underrated in terms
of the size and stuff. I was hoping that's where this
show would end up. Hour 2:00.
We'd be like, just take Bowers and every time you draft, yeah.
Yeah, I'm getting close to that. All right, let's let's move on
to the Broncos. I did my research here.
Yeah. Do you wanna start with?
So here there's there's basically two guys competing for
it. I'd say it's down to Greg
Dulcetch and Lucas Kroll. Kroll overtook Adam Troutman at
the end of last year and is getting some hype to start the
year. Huge shocker.
Greg Dulcich is injured and can't get on the field this
preseason. Who?
Who could have seen that one coming?
So Davis, yeah. What's your what's your take on
the Broncos tied end situation right now?
Basically neither of them are getting drafted for the record.
So Dulcich definitely, they are like Sean Payton and these guys
are, are self aware enough to know that if Dulcich could get
on the field, he would help them.
Which is so funny that we're doing the show actually 'cause
this is really one of the only things Karine and I've ever
disagreed about was the the Dulcich Alberto year where we
like going to war and we were both wrong in the.
I was right for one for like half a season on Dulcich you.
Were right for you were right for one game where I hit a 40 to
one first touchdown bet on Greg Dulcich.
So I'll forgive you in in the end, but Dulcich is already
injured and his injury is a bad one for a tight end 'cause it's
a foot injury. Just like, dude, it's July and
you have a foot injury. I I mean, it's not great.
It's not great. Now, Kroll, people forget this.
In fact, I just learned this about 90 minutes ago.
Lucas Kroll is a Saints nepo baby the same way that little
Jordan Humphrey and Adam Troutman are.
He signed in 2022 as an undrafted free agent for the
Saints. Spent the entire season on the
practice squad? Hang on.
With Peyton.
Well, Peyton wasn't there in 2022.
It's still his proxies. Yeah, come on, You think that
it's a do you think that it's an accident that a guy who played
zero snaps and was on the Saints practice squad is on the
Broncos? You think that?
You think that's an accident? Like if Kendrick Miller watches
up with the Broncos, is that nepotism?
No, I think the separation is enough now that it wouldn't be,
but I think I think 2022 would be.
So Lucas I. Think Sean Payton was just lazy
about who he brought in? That's what he's just like, he
just called up. Dennis Allen was like, hey,
that's. What I think players I should
pick up? Yeah.
Exactly, I think, I think. I think it was just laziness
more. Than that OK all right so he's
he's a lazy he's a he's a lazy roster edition but he.
Step Nepotism. So he was in college for from
2017 to 2021. He started out at a junior
college, went to Florida, didn't play, went to Pittsburgh, didn't
play, then had 13% dominated rating his final season.
I mean, he's the most creative player ass tight end of all time
to which is to say I'm not really buying this idea that
he's tearing up training camera. You know, Peyton had that quote
where he was like, look at this guy, look at you.
You're going to remember. You're going to remember this.
I think the quote was I. Think, he said.
People are going to remember 85, right?
People are going to remember 85. I think the plan is probably for
him to be the Joker in that offense in the same way that
like Kobe Fleenor was, the was the Joker people might have been
still going to. Plan.
Not Eric. Remember how many Eric's he gave
us last year? Eric Sauber.
Eric. Tomlinson.
Yes.
Maybe people will remember. Or maybe they'll remember Eric.
Maybe they'll remember 85 because he's going to find three
more Lucas's to throw out. I, I have taken Kroll a couple
times with Nicks. I'll admit it, I'll admit it.
I have. But I, I, I think the move is
probably just to take dosage and just be like, I hope I get six
games out of him. I I think that's probably it.
Well, I guess so just I do want to again kind of to the Otten
thing, and I think this very much includes the Panthers.
But like our baseline expectation for some of these
rooms should not be that one of these guys emerges as a clear
cut tight end when an NFL team doesn't really have that.
They're usually very comfortable rotating like three guys and
they run like 30% of the routes, 40% of the routes, right?
Like there's like a few guys, we've seen this repeatedly over
the years and it's and it kills production like these these
dudes just are not good enough to produce 40%.
Yeah, who is 2% of the routes You, you can't.
You're running fewer routes than a running back, you know, at
that point, like it's just not enough, you know.
And then these target for route runs for most of these player it
is in like the 15% range if we're lucky.
So I think now there can be big hits, but like the baseline
assumption should be that there's it's just a a wasteland
with a lot of like that there's several tight end wastelands at
the end of the season where there were where there were no
right answers. Yeah, I agree.
And I, I do think here, like if we get reports that Dulcet is
healthy and please like just get him on the practice field at
some point this offseason. If I'm willing to take some last
round Dulsage, I definitely do want to see that he's healthy
first. Like I'm not taking him now, but
he was a guy who had a solid rookie season.
I think it's maybe like people remember it a little bit more
fondly than it it actually was productive.
Like 1.3 yards per out run. Scored in his first game and
then went to yeah. But he he was used like deep
down, he had a pretty high a dot.
He was, he was kind of used as a wide receiver, like more of a
slot receiver than a tie down. If I.
Remember, that's why these guys are interesting, because the
wide receivers on they might have the worst wide receiver
room in the NFL. Like it really might be the
worst. That's why I think dulcet like
if he can get healthy, if he's like firmly with the starters
and the preseason games, I'm willing to take some 17th, 18th
round dulcet. These other guys like the Lucas
crawl hype like I I tweeted about it.
So I'm so I'm guilty of feeding into the engagement farming
there, but I I just. Don't you engagement farmed your
Co workers dude. Yeah, the only only slightly
positive thing on on him, I'll say before we move on, he is a
Ras freak and was like a former baseball prospect.
So again, tight end is super weird.
If like some guy's just gonna figure out tight end later in
his career. Like it's not impossible.
We've seen other weird stories, Logan Thomas, Darren Waller,
etcetera, but I don't know man, I'm, I'm not, I'm probably not
drafting crawl unless 20 rounds. I'm super desperate.
Yeah, in retrospect, it probably wasn't ideal that Nathaniel
Hackett loved Greg Dulcich. Yeah, that's that's a big round
black. That's a good point.
That press conference was was pretty funny.
Let's move on here to the Colts. This is perhaps the most
disgusting rotation drafters are somewhat confident in Jelani
Woods at two O 5 ADP. I'm, I'm kind of throwing the
challenge flag on that one a little bit like, I don't know,
man, like look. How long this is?
They have to expand the chart. This is the most Indianapolis
Colts graphic. The thing is you like can't like
all these guys got snaps last year besides Jelani, like they
all got like 30% of the Staffs. So I think.
I played, I think I played Drogletree in the Spy on
DraftKings one week. I'm pretty sure I did.
So this is what you need for like you can't touch any of
these guys right now in in order to draft one of them.
This is what you need. You need them to cut Moalli Cox,
he I think they can. Save like.
Yeah, they can save like 5 or 8 million or something by cutting
him like I think they probably will.
I'm guessing he's just on the team now to like see if Jelani
is healthy enough to play. And if Jelani is, they're
probably going to get get rid of Moalli Cox.
So if if he gets cut and then we get reports that like the two
guys I'm intrigued by here are Mallory and Jelani Woods, like
very, very similar rookie years for both of them.
Jelani's rookie year was was two years ago.
He didn't play last year effectively, but both of them
had like intriguing per route metrics as rookies on very
limited routes. So I'm on intrigued, intrigued
by two of these guys, but they're definitely on my like
watch list, not my draft now list, if that makes sense.
I don't. I don't have enough.
I would have worked really quickly.
I would have spun up a spider man pointing meme with these,
with these headshots. But I was like, that's going to
take me at least 5 minutes. And then the moment, the moment
is going to be gone past that. But yeah, Jelani Woods is just
2425 year old. Well, Allie Cox and Will Mallory
and Drogletree are the same dude.
And then I mean, multiple of these guys have had two
touchdown games and not crested 15 fantasy points.
Like it's just it is an impossibility that any of these
guys get enough routes to matter.
Well, the continued value on these guys, like if there's four
injuries. You're, you know, the Bruno
Caboclo line, He's two years away from being two years away.
Like dude, Colin grandson is 2 injuries away from being two
injuries away. I I I can't like complain too
much of an ADP of two O 5 but like what?
What is the drafter psychology of like Jelani Woods getting
drafted in almost. We've got a, we've got a a
truther in the chat. He's big and fast and they said
he he was back on the practice field and he was big and fast
again. OK.
He is, I think like of the the guys that we've talked about,
like I'm willing to take Jelani Woods, like I'm not really
taking Dulcich and I'm not really taking Sanders.
I think I have clicked them like once, but like Woods, I've
probably clicked five times. And the reason is he's
correlated with Anthony Richardson, which is a more
exciting way to play things from the quarterback perspective.
And like he is, I don't know, I mean, like I like Dulcich a lot
better when they were coming out his prospects, but like he's he
is very big and maybe maybe he catches a touchdown, you know,
he. Was a clean 1010 of 10 in
relative Athletic score too. Like a true, true athletic
freak. Yeah, I think I'm most
interested in Woods if he has a, I think.
He had a two touchdown game in his third career NFL game.
Right. Well, of all the guys we've
talked like let's say they all are going to run 50% of the
routes this year, Woods is the most interesting to me at that.
Probably take him. If you locked me in to 15% of
the OR 50% of the routes I would, I would take him.
I would take him over like Knox. Yeah.
And I think he'll probably be at six, 5560.
Yeah, I do think going into last year, like the plan was for him
to be the starter. He he did come on at the end of
2022 and again, it was still a rotation, but I I believe he led
the Colts rotation in routes towards the end of the season in
2022. But yeah, it's.
I mean, he had a couple 60% snap games after he came back from
being injured in week 11 in in 2022.
Yeah, so I, I agree he's the most interesting here again, I.
Will Hey Sam save this graphic for week 10 Ship chasing waiver
wire bid show? We're gonna have to go back.
We're gonna have to go back to this one.
Oh. Man, yeah.
And then this, this thing from Athletic I thought was just
comical too. The the roster projection has
all 5 making the team so so great.
I love, love to see that. The idea, the idea of all of
these guys just being on this, the they're just all they have
to have a whole bench. There's a whole tight end.
Bench, tight end bench. You know, they have the, they
have the, the online unit, the cornerbacks are all there
together. And these five, they're just in.
They're just the Spider Man being pointed at each other.
With Jelani Woods and Molly Cox, they're literally taking up as
much space on the bench as the starting offensive line.
You have to have one bench just for Wiley Cox and Jelani Woods.
That's that's why MO Alley might not make the team they can't
afford. That they can't afford that.
I mean, they're, if I'm to be serious for one second, maybe
there's an argument that the Colts use a ton of 12 personnel
because they're going to be doing this like very ground
pound, Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor thing.
But even then you can't get to enough routes.
Yeah. And I mean and downs is good,
right. So you you have the slot
receiver that you're going to want to use a decent amount.
Yeah, although maybe if if they keep 5 tight ends, that's not
great for downs, that's not great for.
Downs. That's really.
Not good for Downs. And the yeah, the worst part of
this whole thing is we I don't think we've even said like Kylan
Granson's name yet. Like he's been the starter of
the past two years at like. Yeah, he's he's the one who
played all of last year. Yeah, but he's just kind of a
nothing. But he has been the guy who they
trust to play the most snaps. So it's it's just a mess.
Let's move here to the charges. I think this is a team like
maybe not now, but I think this is a team where one of these
guys could emerge and be a pretty interesting target,
interesting environment. The charges where the wide
receivers are really weak. So a tight end could come out
here and have some decent target earning.
The market has it in in order that I probably would not.
Hayden Hurst is the most likely to be drafted.
Of these three, Will Disley was the one who got paid in free
agency. He's the better run blocker.
If you look at PFF run block grade from last year, Hayden
Hurst was dead last 96 of 96. Like with a score way below the
person who was in 95th. Will Disley was third of 96.
So just kind of reading the tea leaves of what the Chargers want
to do on offense, they're going to want a tight end in there
that can run block. Hayden Hurst also zero million
guaranteed. Had some pretty scary injuries
last year. Will Disley Will Disley got 10
million guaranteed. Hayden Hurst as the receiving
tight end on this roster with 1.1 yards per out run is it's
perfect. It's 0 million guaranteed is
also good work. How, how much fast do you have
on you right now? Zero Million.
They didn't even give him the JK JK Dobbins 50K memorial tryout.
They they gave him literally 0 so.
Insane. Yeah, I don't know, I I've been
drafting some disley like that could be really dumb, but I
think I've. Taken Disley on DraftKings like
you're, it's like a play action touchdown, right?
You're just like, give me that play action touchdown on Disley
'cause he's he's the guy out there.
Run blocking. It seems plausible.
You know, I know he's probably running half the routes and no
more, but Hearst, I mean, coming off the concussion that he
seemed to be considering retirement, Purim seems like one
of those guys where it's like. He's a gimmick player, The.
Gimmick player from a different regime always scares me.
Yeah, So Disley is like a literal lineman, like he's a a
converted converted lineman. But Hearst is like the I think
the tight end here could like pretty easily catch 55 passes if
because I have there are huge question marks about all the
wide receivers, right? Like literally every Charger is
wide receiver. You're like Ken.
I mean, Mcconkey played like 9 snaps in college.
How good is he? Palmer is like kind of miscast
as a #1 Quentin Johnson might be the worst wide receiver in the
NFL, but DJ Shark, I think we've said plenty about DJ Shark on
this program. Brendan Rice, I, I tried to make
a bowl case that it was aggressively good that he was
drafted in the seventh round instead of a UDFA on this show
last week. Like, it's a really bad wide
receiver room. I think sadly, though, we
probably land where we landed with the Colts, which is Parham
plays in the red zone. So that takes out some of those
really important targets. But he never gets I mean,
Parham's just not going to get enough following to be relevant
for fantasy. Hearst is like weird injury
stuff. Zero million guaranteed.
These are some tight ends that will Disley makes more money
then Dejuan Johnson, Gerald Everett, all the rookie guys.
More than Johnny Smith, more than Troutman, more than yeah,
more than Gassicki, more than more than the aforementioned
Jelani Woods. Like like it.
They paid him a lot, but sadly they they paid him to block.
I don't know, I I take her stand Disley a little bit.
Yeah, yeah, they definitely paid him to block, but again, like
his receiving stats, I'm not going to tell you they're great,
but career 1.4 yards for outrun is not like abysmal.
Like we've talked through a lot of guys that are sub one K dot
in the sub one. I think there's a decent chance
that Will Disley is like, I wouldn't say it's a median
outcome, but a decent chance he's like 75% routes this
season. If, you know, if they don't
trust Hertz in the run blocking and he's just their base in line
tight end, like that could just be a route accumulation role.
So yeah, he's kind of a Herbert Stacks only guy for me, but I
don't think he's like, he's at least like guaranteed to make
the team and be out there enough to catch a touchdown, right?
I mean if if Hurst is injured though, I don't I don't see what
would stop this Lee from 67% of. The round Hearst has also been
like really bad the past couple years.
Like his career stats look OK here, but that's really buoyed
by his early season Baltimore days.
Like let me let me pull it up. I was looking into this, but
it's been really ugly the past couple years for Hearst and
yeah, the PFF grade of dead lass and run blocking.
That's not something that's gonna inspire confidence in John
Harbaugh. Yeah, I mean, he's been asked,
he's like it's sort of the B Austin Hooper role that he's
been given a couple times and he wasn't he, he fell below B
Austin Hooper. You know, they had the the fact
the Falcons asked him to do that and then he could he got clear
runway on the Panthers last year.
Didn't happen so. Yeah, no target competition last
year in the Panthers, 13% targets for outrun, 0.8 yards
for outrun. Like he he was paid to be the
starter there. Like he he just straight up lost
the job because of how bad he. Was and we've seen, you know, to
the to the Conklin point, you know, that we'll get to later,
but like we've seen guys emerge. Conklin came got on our radar
because or Smith was kind of Hayden hursty, you know, and so
Disley the route. It's never exciting.
The exciting thing is to find a guy who looks like Donald Parham
and hope that he gets 80% of the routes, because that's that
would be amazing. But that rarely happens.
What more likely happens is good run blocker makes his way to
more routes, which is kind of what Jake Ferguson was last
year. He's a better receiver than
Disley by decent amount, but like that's how Tyler Conklin
became. Relevant the Ferguson argument.
The chat is really missing the point.
It's like, yeah, 97% of the guys we mentioned on this show are
going to be the worst players you could possibly have on your
roster. But like, Jake Ferguson was a
huge win rate guy last year. Like, he was massive, yeah.
Yeah. Oh chat easy in chat makes a
great point. Someone's got to acknowledge
that the the Greg Roman is a is a big tight end coach and he
drafted hers. And much like Neppo baby JK
Dobbins wanted to bring him along.
Yeah, and just like didn't Gregory Allman use Hearst as the
backup tight end in Baltimore? 'Cause they also they also
drafted a guy by the name of Marc Andrews in the same draft.
Yeah, what's what's like the bullish, I don't know, I don't
remember Hearst Baltimore days being that exciting.
I guess they were passable, but. You know how in movies like
there's like when they do flashbacks, there's like kind of
like a film over the camera, It's a little fuzzy and
everything. Is that just how Roman lives his
whole life? Like what he's got JK Dobbins,
Hayden Hearst? Like what?
What year is he imagining these guys from?
I I don't know. It doesn't do a lot for me like.
Yeah, 0 guaranteed man like. He's a, he's an FoB.
It's kind of the way I take that.
Yeah, and this quote from this was from Daniel Popper, I
believe is the athletic guy in the Chargers.
He had Disley and Hearst as the top two tight ends of the depth
chart. So yeah, we, I don't think we
were seriously considering Param here.
But for anyone drafting him, I I think it if you're taking shots
here, I think it should be hers. Could you pull up the?
The blurpy did very similar to this on the the backfield.
Yeah. Can we get a Kamani Vidal?
Yeah. Anything he did do that and he
basically predicted Vidal didn't exist.
So sick. Sick.
We love that. That's exactly what we want.
I love I love a guy who you cannot find a Google News
results on. Skyrocketing and ADP, That's
always my favorite thing. It's when every day I have to
take a guy earlier and he doesn't exist on the Internet.
Yeah, God, I'm still doing it though.
I'm still taking. Him, I know I'm still taking
him. The the chat is primed for this.
You better have good notes on Rams tight end because they
cannot wait to talk about Colby Parkinson, Sam.
Yeah, this one, I, I think this one is maybe the best one on the
list in terms of my interest because Sean McVeigh has always
just had a clear starting tight end that's been out there for
basically all the routes. Maybe that's a Tyler Higbee
step. I don't think Higbee's
particularly good. I think he just likes having one
guy. You know, he likes the workhorse
running back. He likes having a wide receiver
and throughout receiver sets that can always be out there
blocking. He likes his guys and likes to
play them a lot. So identifying the tight end
here I think is big. And yeah, like as to why we're
ruling out Higbee, he had a CLMCL surgery in mid to late
February. That means like best case
scenario, he's back by week 12. I think there's also scenarios
where he misses the whole season, maybe even sort of like
a cut and injury settlement type of situation situation for Tyler
Higbee. So I think the guys we should be
interested in are Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen.
Yeah, starting with you, Davis, you, you got takes on sort of
Parkinson versus Allen. If you're taking shots here, who
who you would be taking? Parkinson would be a good
example of who could be a Jake Ferguson.
You know, just a guy who basically is barely played,
seems to be a good run blocker, but there's not a ton in his
way. Colby Parkinson is the 14th
highest paid tight end in the NFL.
More than Phant, more than Conklin, more than Higbee, more
than basically every other veteran who has signed a
contract extension other than the the very the very obvious
guys. He was like a finish receiver.
I mean, he did have 1200 receiving yards in college,
which is for a tight end can be a lot more than Davis Allen.
Allen like kind of flashed a little bit playing last year,
but it basically just seems like McVeigh and Sneed wanted
Parkinson, so I think he's gonna get the chance to play.
Yeah, and he's apparently looks good in camp, but I guess I
would just push back on the idea that McVeigh wants like a clear
cut starter he split. I think he cares about tight
end. Yeah, and he he split Higbee
with Everett for a while. I mean, this was a team that for
years ran a committee at tight end.
There's also Hunter Long, who returned to practice a few weeks
ago. He's recovering from a from MCL
surgery. And then Jordan Rodrigue noted
that this is in one of the final reports from mini camp.
I think that he, Davis, Allen and Parkinson were all extremely
active with both Stafford and backup Jimmy Garoppolo.
So there's a role for a tight end here, but this would
actually be one of the ones that I think has the highest chances
of being a committee, just kind of a gross no one emerges
committee. And one of the reasons I feel
that way is that Higbee will return by the end of the season,
most likely. And so I might not even have a
guy who's doing anything by the end of the year.
Like, is this like if I knew the Vikings starting tight end in
the meantime, wouldn't? And who is that, by the way?
Is that Tanya? Probably pass sketching Tony and
blocking Oliver I'm. Getting Oliver, you want to talk
about you want to talk about guys who are getting paid.
Josh Oliver, 14th highest paid tight end in the NFL.
I mean that that honestly feels just as fertile ground to me.
Like I, I don't and it's, and it's, it's a, it's a, it's a
wasteland. It's stones.
I'm not interested in it. But it's just like this does not
seem like where a breakout tight end will come from, partly
because unless Higbee gets caught, if, if there's an injury
settlement, I'll change my tune. But and.
How many targets, how many targets are even there for like
a blocking tight end on the Rams roster anyway?
Like I'm thinking back to like the Higbee explosion games.
That was when they had one really good wide receiver to be
targeted. Now, I mean are are 60% of the
Rams throws are going to go to two guys you're you're looking
at, you're looking at a very, very small slice of a pie for.
A tight end yeah, I will say Higbee has had multiple like
pretty high target earnings seasons.
He has a 24% targets per route run in 2022, a 30% targets per
route run in 2019. That was on just like 300
routes, but still that's insanely high.
So yeah, you probably would need an injury to one of the top two
wide receivers for something like that to happen.
Or you know, maybe Kuper cough does hit the age Cliff, but.
I also think like the the thing with tight end hurts us here.
We're like, Higbee knows the assignment, right?
And he's not he's not particularly athletic to begin
with. So like, what is the bar for him
getting? What is the bar for us drafting
him higher than it? It's gonna be like we we
shouldn't be drafting Higbee, but what's the bar for him
coming back and playing a bunch of snaps by the end of the
season? Not that high.
You know, he's got it. How much movement is required of
him to block guys and then pretend to block a guy and
squiggle out five yards like he's gonna, he's gonna be able
to return physically. Now maybe they decide it's time
to move on, but I don't know. I I think by the end of the
season. Yeah, I I wouldn't, I get your
pushback and you're definitely souring me on Parkinson.
I'll I'll just say like I wouldn't have that much
certainties returning like this is still a multi ligament ACL
tear, like a late late February surgery timeline like that week
12 is like best case. But if it's, you know, you know,
for an older guy, if it takes a bit longer, I think that it's
certainly. Like it's a risk factor that I
don't appreciate given how like, in the bed already is.
Like, I don't know, I it's just yeah, it's a lot.
Poor lay, not really that interested in.
Again, I have no interest in Higbee.
Yeah, and Davis Allen, we haven't really talked about him.
I will say he was just like mildly interesting in like one
or two games last year, put up some numbers in a spot start for
Higbee. So yeah, I, I think you've sold
me Korean. I, I kind of was completely
ruling out Higbee. It is a good point that he
probably will be back in the most important weeks.
That definitely puts a damper. On and Allen has been involved
in in OT as a mini camp. Like I don't think Allen is like
this. My guess is that this is some
kind of split and then it's potentially a three-way muddled
mess by the time Habee gets back.
So that's the other part of it too, is like, I don't think it's
as clean as Parkinson's, the starting tight end for most of
the year. I think Parkinson's an
intriguing athletic guy who's never done anything though and
is new to the team. And Allen has filled in this
role, you know, functionally and might actually be the starter.
So you might be drafting like Will Mallory.
You might be drafting Colby Parkinson last year on Seattle,
yeah. You might be drafting Colby
Parkinson. Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, I just, I think I think these guys are dogs to matter
for the fact that we're even debating them competing against
each other. Like Easy does make the point
that McVeigh doesn't like to rotate mid drive.
Like we've seen like Royce Freeman scoring touchdowns
because he just happened to be on for a drive that went well or
whatever. But you're still talking about
like pretty unlikely to finish in the top ten in tight end
scoring even with like a couple good spikes.
Yeah, yeah, I'd say my submission is like I'm still
willing to take. I'm probably going to wait more
to see if there's like a clear starter that comes out.
I'm still willing to take one of these guys in Stafford stacks,
even with the Higbee factor, just 'cause, I don't know, 31
year old coming back from multi ligament knee surgery.
I don't think it's like that big of a much of A lock that he
plays like at all this year or has a really lot.
I agree it's a factor to. This is one of the things that
like so Ferguson, you know, I wasn't super into, I don't think
this time last year, but maybe by this time I was starting to
get intrigued. But the news on him was pretty
bullish. Like Schoonmacher never made
noise and it was like Ferguson. Ferguson had had been really
involved as a run blocker. Even when Schultz was there.
He was used on the play action stuff a lot and then it was just
a drum beat of like, Yup, looks like Ferguson's taking this job.
If we get that kind of out of training camp, like Yup, it
looks like Parkinson's the guy. Then I, you know, especially if
it's accompanied by like bearish stuff on Higbee, then I'm
definitely open to the idea of taking Parkinson.
I just, it just feels like kind of one of those like super
muddled running back depth charts right now.
It's like, I just, why not just spend the pick on something else
and keep Parkinson more on kind of the watch list?
There's there's no chance that we're doing drafts on August
20th and you're like not wanting to take Colby Parkinson around
14. He's just not going to be that
big of a riser, right? Let's talk here, Giants, This is
the last like completely ambiguous depth chart.
And I think of these six teams, maybe the one that is talked
about the least, obviously Darren Waller retired.
That left Theo Johnson, a day three rookie from Penn State,
Daniel Bellinger and Lawrence Cager as the top three guys on
the Giants tight end depth chart.
You look at Bellinger and Cager, Bellinger sort of has a a full
season of routes through two NFL seasons.
He's been, again, 11% targets for route run.
When you're competing for targets with Darius Slaton,
Isaiah Hodgins, these type of guys, that's pretty, pretty bad
for Bellinger. So yeah, for me, like I would
take stabs on Johnson. If we get good hype, I want the
mystery box over the guy who's been pretty bad and hasn't
earned that big of A roll through two seasons, but
certainly not enough confidence that he's going to be the guy to
draft him now. Yeah, Johnson pretty much every
season gives me a a tight end that sort of tilts me with how
much people get excited about the Ras score because other
things matter too. And Johnson is kind of that guy
for me this year where he had the 9.99 Ras, but he's not a
very good blocker. And so that's, and the other
thing that's funny is that Bellinger was really.
That's I was I was wondering if you were going to say that
Bellinger 9.66 rafts. It's not it's not it's it's not
like, oh, there's one, there's there's two Hayden Hurst with
the with the OR there's two Tavian Sanders and then then a
guy who's crazy. No, Bellinger is also an insane
athlete. Also, Theo Johnson, for all his
gifts, could not do shit at Penn State.
I mean, just did not generate receptions.
I guess he did get to 34 receptions as a 21 year old
senior that was tied for second on the team.
So I guess, I guess maybe I'm being a little bit unfair in the
context of what a Big Ten offense offers.
I mean, this is this is your most clear as day split, though.
It's just not not one is going to play a ton more than the
other. And Lawrence Cager, by the way,
this is this is for, this is for Sam converted wide receiver
buddy, he was, he was, he was a wide receiver at you want to
talk about pedigree, a receiver at Miami and at Georgia.
Yeah, the the closest comp for me when I did Johnson's stuff
was Zach Koontz, another really athletic guy who has done
absolutely nothing, you know, through one year.
But like we're going to talk about other Jets side ends.
I don't even know if he'll get mentioned like these super
athletic guys who didn't have much production or efficiency.
And he had a peak of 1.58 yards per out run, a career mark of
1.22 in college, in college, Like we're looking for guys to
be even a tight end, like around 2 yards per out run.
You know, this is he just wasn't, he just wasn't
productive or efficient really. 16% yardage share was his peak.
He didn't really score that many touchdowns, 16% career touchdown
share. So it just wasn't really much
production. Like you want athleticism.
Athleticism is really important, but it's kind of like it gets
you in the door. And then I still would like to
see if there's anything else to the profile.
And in this case, there, there isn't really.
And so as uninspiring as Bellinger is, he he has earned
snaps at the NFL level. And that's, that's something,
you know. That's I've got I've got some
some cold water to throw on the idea that he would even play a
lot of snaps. They also in free agency signed
Jack Stoll and Chris Manhurtz, who are like the goats like real
like like stolen Manhurtz are like really good blockers like
top five PFF in run and pass block grade.
So even playing 85% of the snaps like assume Theo Johnson doesn't
exist. He still might not get those
snaps. Yeah, no, I I don't think any of
these got to me. I'm not really that interested.
Theo Johnson I sprinkle in like a tiny bit because of the
mystery box element, but like most likely he's running 25% of
the routes this year. Yeah, yeah, I think so.
Here's maybe a somewhat realistic scenario.
Say we get to week 3 of pre season, we get the you know the
snaps from Nathan Janky and Theo Johnson's playing.
It's almost Yankee season, dude. It's.
Almost. We're almost there.
I'm. Excited.
I miss it. Say by the way the Jarkson's
playing. This is the Dark Dark show.
Feels like I'm watching the road.
This is probably This is the darkest.
This is the darkest edition of ADP chasing ever.
No, these, I mean, I think I was probably the first person to
Google like some of these things I was Googling to pull up like
Lawrence Cager, college stats Lawrence.
Cager College Stats. No one I googled that in in
years, potentially ever. Did Duke?
Did Google suggest? Did you mean things to do in
your area? Where to touch grass?
I played. I played Lawrence Cager in a
Thanksgiving DFS late once. Yeah, I mean, he's a wide
receiver. Like I looked up his, I tried to
look up his PFF run blocking grade and he played like so few
run blocking snaps. He's like, yeah, he's he's not a
tight end, but OK, Sacram back to live with that.
Say, say Theo Johnson's playing half the snaps, running half the
routes with the starters in the preseason.
Is that enough to get you interested?
Say you know he's starting already in a 5050 committee,
maybe he grows to the full time starter by end of the season is
because I think that's the type of information we'll have to go
off of. Would that be enough to get you
interested? It would be a.
Little. Bit it would be I'm not like
taking a full zero a tight end and I'm getting this really,
really athletic guy who was, you know, if you're going to make
the bull case on him, it's that he was used on a lot of deep
targets where like at least downfield targets, 42% of his
career production came on targets 10 to 19 yards down
field. Another 23% on 20 plus yard
targets he had. He had 4% of his career targets
behind the line of scrimmage, only 4% and a lot of his yak
came down fields as opposed to behind the line of scrimmage.
He was not schemed for is the point here.
And some tight ends either scheme for and it's like it's
actually kind of a red flag because you're like, you know, I
don't like Jaheim Bell, right? Like, I, I don't know if that's
going to happen for you at the NFL level, Jaheim.
Bell not getting mentioned for 62 minutes in this show.
I mean what a huge upset. What a guess. 1st 20 minutes for
sure. But you know, Johnson's like
that. He was just kind of a downfield
receiver at tight end. It it gives like a little bit of
upside of like maybe a team more interested in featuring him.
He would actually be kind of fun.
And it doesn't the bar is low at tight end.
Like if it if they want to get him a couple targets a game,
like all of a sudden, like, OK, you know, like a couple screens
to this guy sounds incredible. You know, a little can go a long
way. So yeah, I I do think we want
to, these are kind of especially Johnson, kind of prime watch
list for the preseason. Watch list definitely want to
see he's like somewhat involved with the starters in the
preseason. Yeah, just pointing out here.
Theo Johnson 9.99 Ras. I also want to say like how how
is every tight end like a 9.8 Ras and above.
Like I trust Kent Lee Platt. I know he does good work, but.
It's it's the weight multiplier. I think, I think these guys will
figure it out, but I think the weight multiplier is off based
on how these guys are able to train now.
Like I just think the average 260 LB college football player
can just move so much better than they could 10 years ago.
So like 10 years ago just Atavian Sanders have like a 0.3
rasp. Chatavian Sanders shows up to
your local Planet Fitness and just looks like it just blends
in. Does not set off the lunk alarm.
Chatavian Sanders comes in, curls the 15 pounders, gets on
the treadmill, walks for 20 minutes and goes home.
Oh God I love this skull. I don't know if this is supposed
to go on the private chat from Davis.
Sam. We have 10 teams like.
No, no, no, some guy said. So basically at this point if
you say a guy named Sam said better to go solo tied in and I
said we're getting there. We got league winners left
there, there. This whole screen is full of
guys I like to take. Yeah, so let's start with the
Bengals here. This one is interesting.
The market's presuming Mike Gusicky is the starter here.
He has an ADP of two O 6. They signed both Drew Sample and
Tanner Hudson, I guess resigned both of those guys.
Both of them worked into the rotation last year that
Cincinnati had Drew Sample more of a blocking guy, Tanner Hudson
almost purely a receiving tight end, but he's kind of a bit
older. Sort of a weird profile there.
And then Eric all is like maybe the the moon shot upside guy in
this room. Per JJ Zachariessen has tight
end stuff in his prospect guide. He said that Eric Gall had
arguably the best or sorry, arguably the second best
production profile in the class behind Bowers.
Kind of a weird profile because he was injured in college so
didn't play a ton of games, but on a per game and per route
basis was quite good. So yeah, that's the state of the
Bengals side and competition. Pretty tough one to figure out.
You missed the guy who might be my favorite clique of them all.
He's not. He didn't, he didn't even make
the graphic. I, I got this one.
You guys are not going to like the thing I'm about to say.
You guys are not going to believe Tanner McLaughlin.
Fifth round pick, sixth round pick, actually out of Arizona
University. He finished his career with more
receptions at Arizona than Rob Gronkowski.
Broke the school record for receptions by a tight end where
Rob Gronkowski went to college. Ran a 4.6140 at six, six, 245
lbs. I'm, I'm with Davis on this one.
I, I don't think so. Like I thought Tana McLaughlin
was a better prospect than Eric all ahead of the draft and even
after the draft. I think it's like kind of close.
And the, the thing with the thing with tight ends is that
when you're like doing models and stuff, draft capital matters
less than at the other positions.
And I think that's partly because like the teams aren't
necessarily been looking for the same stuff.
You know, it's like, let's let's waste a second round pick on a
blocking scoonlocker. You know, let's do like let you
know. I I'm not that interested in
kind of like an OK, big receiver.
It you know, we can we can take him in the sixth round or
whatever, but he might actually be a better receiver than Eric
all ultimately. So I don't know.
It's not that I want to take McLaughlin, but he was he was
kind of intriguing to me as a prospect and all, you know, kind
of at the level or a bit above of all.
So it's another situation where I'm like, I don't feel at at all
confident that I have the right guy when I drafted her call.
This this is worse. This is actually worse than the
Colts room because it's. Just one of these.
Well, if one of them existed, I could like really sell myself on
Tanner Hudson. I could really sell myself on
McLaughlin. I could really sell myself on
air. Oh, he went to Iowa.
He's a great blocker. He's going to be on the field.
But the fact that they're all there and they made sure to
retain Tanner Hudson, who I believe for like 6 weeks at the
end of actually, I don't believe, I know when Matan
Hudson was playing last year, he was leading tight ends in
targets per route run for like six weeks of the season last
year. It it, it's just annoying.
This is insanely annoying. And like Sam, you put in our
chat yesterday like, oh, all we have to do is bet against
Kasicki. Yeah, that's not really true.
But it's it's if it was true, it would be sick.
It would be like if the if the depth chart, if they just ran
back the depth chart from last year, Kasicki Hudson sample.
I'd be like, dude, we should be taking Tanner Hudson, But it's
just it's a mess now. Yeah, I, I guess I think I'm
just like more anti Gassicki than pro any of these guys.
Like Gassicki's been really bad in back-to-back seasons and he
again, he's like in the Hayden Hurst mold of like a guy who
can't run block at all. Like he's purely a wide
receiver, which maybe sounds exciting, but I actually think
on this Bengals depth chart, like their wide receivers are
pretty solid. I think both Yoshi Bosh and
Jermaine Burton would definitely play ahead of Mike Gassicki,
like for slot snaps. So we actually want the true
tight end here. And yeah, Mike Kasicki got less
money guaranteed than Drew Sample did.
They both were signed this year. So I don't know.
I'm just, I'm not really seeing it with Kasicki.
Like terrible per route metrics and you like can't block at all.
Like, what am I? What am I getting?
But when he's when he's in the slot, he's going to be split off
the line as essentially a fourth receiver.
He's not literally going to be like you're saying it's like a
four wide set. It's essentially A4 wide set.
I mean, slot snaps are very like it just means he's not in line.
He can be like just two steps back and he's in the slot or
over slightly. He's in the slot like he's he's
gonna be detached from the line and Joe Burr's out of the
shotgun, right? And they've got, I mean,
frankly, they don't have like a true Tyler Boyd slot receiver
anymore. Some of that would go to
Gazicky, I think, if he's out there.
The question is if he's out there.
I don't know. I've actually taken some
Gazicky. I've bet.
I've bet against this guy his entire career.
I'm not generally a fan of the he's the big soft receiver.
So it's another one. It's another one we argued
about. I was big on Gazicky the Chan
Gael year and boy was I wrong. Yeah, I, I was not, I just
never, he's never been that good.
But he, he was functional for a couple years.
He had 1.6 yards per hour and I think in the year that I was out
on him, and then one point, which was OK, but he didn't do
that much, and then he had 1.45 yards per outrun.
Then he got franchise tags which was weird, remember?
It was so weird. So that, you know, they thought
something of them. But then he has 0.99 yards per
outrun, ends up on the Patriots horrible 0.72.
But he's a backup to Hunter Henry.
So like, you know, it's kind of like the Jonnu Smith thing where
like the last couple years aren't maybe not reflective of
what the role's going to be. So I don't know.
I'm actually like a little intrigued by Gassicki is like
that pure receiver who's completely for free 'cause he's
attached to Joe Burrow and some of that like underneath dump off
stuff is available. It's a good bet against Burton,
who I'm betting on. I I'm all over.
Being like a true downfield guy with not a ton of nuance to his
game. I guess I just questioned that
Mike Gassicki is like the underneath dump off guy.
Like his clear ADA is like closer to 10 or 11.
Like he kind of has the wide receiver like deeper A dot so.
Yeah, that's fair. I I get what you're saying, but
I don't know man, the the money on this one scares me.
Like you look at the other tight ends getting paid like these
absolute bombs are getting like 10 million guaranteed.
Will Disley Colby Parkinson you you know you're getting paid
less than Drew's sample like. Dude, Tanner Hudson got targeted
a lot last year. He got targeted 50 times on 276
snaps. This is so this is one like we
talk about the watch list like this is one where I would be
hitting it hard if we have any concrete information that one
guy is the starter. Yeah, save, save this.
Save this graphic for Week 3 Ship Chasing.
Save, save, save this for August, you know, round 15 FFPC.
Let's take this to that's I want to be in on this.
To me, if there's a Ferguson, it would be the clear cut starter
like and remember, Ferguson didn't run like 80% of the
routes in week one last year. It took him a little bit of
time. I think he was more in the 60
something percent range and then he consolidated routes as the
season went on. But he was involved around the
red zone from the beginning, which is partly why, you know,
he was a But I think we could, we could end up with something.
So like if Tanner Hudson starts out as like, you know, a decent
starter and emerges over the course of the year, he could be
a huge it doesn't matter to me who it is.
Drew Sample, Tanner Hudson, please someone do this 'cause it
would be a smash. It would be an absolute smash.
Like, yeah, I think there's targets, there's there's 8 yard
targets available on the top. My fear is it's gonna be a lot
like last year where it was kind of a three man rotation like
samples, kind of the inline blocker guy, Tanner Hudson, pure
pass catcher, Irv Smith. Maybe Mike is sick in the Irv
Smith Esk roll. Probably, you know, hopefully a
little bit bigger of a role. I should add, by the way, Eric
All might not play at all this year.
He's got he had a herniated back, He had a he had a back
injury. So that would be an easy way for
them to be like, Oh well, we'll just red shirt him and play
McLaughlin and see what see what happens.
Yeah, I don't love that they also drafted McLaughlin though,
'cause I just want, yeah, I want someone to consolidate this and
maybe it doesn't happen anyway. I could see this being kind of
like a worse version of the Chargers the last few years
where like maybe someone's in Everett but way.
More throws, you know. 650 throws available.
That's true, yeah. McLaughlin also drafted in the
CFL draft. So you got to, you're sweating
that. You got to make sure he got to
make sure he doesn't go to the Saskatchewan Roughriders.
He's also 25 years old. McLaughlin has a rookie.
That's tight ends. Tight ends are just so weird.
It's like I can't even. Yeah, it's just such a weird
position. Yeah, I mean, he'll never be
like a star, but I do you you keep the light on for any.
It's like, hey, I've managed to run like 70% of the routes on
this team. I'm like, great, you're 33, I
don't care. You know, yeah, that's true.
Packers here, this one. I I think there's a guy here
with some upside, Luke Musgrave, second round pick.
Obviously the market's reflecting that to some extent.
He's going 150, so a bit earlier than the other names we're
talking through today. Tucker Craft going at ADP of
214. Here are their stats from last
year. Tucker Craft did kind of emerge
towards the end of the season after Musgrave got injured and
was trusted as the starter in the play offs after Musgrave has
been had been back for a couple weeks.
You look at their per route stuff though and Musgrave to me
looks a lot more interesting. Higher target per route run,
higher yards per out run, higher a dot.
I think if one of these guys is like a receiving weapon, it's
Musgrave and Tucker Craft is just like the competent blocker
who can catch dump offs and be fine.
So yeah, I I haven't been drafting Musgrave much, but his
rookie year was a little bit better than I expected.
Like these are pretty solid numbers for a rookie start with
Ukraine. How are how are you playing this
Packers tight end situation? So I didn't realize Musgrave
looks exactly like the actor who played Larry Bird in Showtime.
Yeah, that's an interesting. The Musgrave was not someone I
was drafting a ton of early 'cause I'm like, man, I'm
getting a guy who could get that other rookie they drafted last
year. But I've been drafting him a
decent amount more recently. I'm up to 9% on him.
I think he's a pretty good pick. Kraft Tour is pectoral and there
hasn't that hasn't been like super widely publicized, I
think, but he could end up missing.
It's like, oh, he's gonna be back for training camp, but like
the beginning of training camp, you know, like how much how much
offseason work is Kraft gonna even get in?
And when you have something like like if Musgrave, I think
Musgrave, it's now kind of up to him.
Like if he's good enough to consolidate this role and be the
starter, I think he can do it. Like I think he would just like
will be the starter and tight ends generally.
Like sometimes we see like with AK dot and like if a dude is
functionally doing the job, he's just left to do his work
sometimes. And and Musgrave I think is
probably good enough to if given the opportunity to just be a
clear cut starter, he can do it and and the pectoral injury
potentially gave him. Yeah, and other people have
pointed this out. There was just a couple like
boneheaded Musgrave plays last year that prevented him from
having much better stat lines in a couple games.
A couple times where he was like wide open deep and didn't keep
running on a Jordan Love pass, like could have been a wide open
touchdown. A couple other things where I
think it was just sort of rookie sort of stumbling blocks that
that stopped him from having a better season.
But yeah, I think, yeah, I'm with Ukraine.
I wasn't, I was kind of like ignoring him early.
But now with Kraft's injury and sort of looking back at his
rookie season, I think it was a little bit more exciting than I
was giving him credit for. Also high draft capital like he
was what like 40th pick in the NFL draft or something like
that. Yeah, he got in a decent rookie
season, You know, like, I don't think he's gonna be awesome, but
I I think he's as bad as it gets late as we've kind of gone
through. Like he's, I mean, what's the
difference between him and Cole Commet?
You know, like what's what's Cole Commet's ADP relative to
him? He's like a commet's like a
little bit ahead, but the the thing that makes Musgrave like,
oh man, I I would really like to I would really like to click
him. I'm in on the Packers, I'm in on
Jordan Love. I'm in really kind of on
everyone but Dobbs, although maybe I need to start taking
some some more Dobbs. But you could have the ultimate
run bad, which is like Musgrave's pretty good.
He's kind of like the tight end, 9 scores some touchdowns like is
is running down the field. And then Kraft is like fully
healthy from this torn pack. And then you have a 50% round
chair guy and it's like, wow, great.
Yeah. Yeah.
And he goes right next to the command.
So that's a bad example. But Schultz would maybe be the
guy of like, what's the difference, the name of Schultz?
But I guess the difference is Schultz doesn't have Tucker
Craft potentially coming back by the end of the year.
Yeah, let's talk to your Jets. This is maybe like a
controversial 1 to to put in this bucket here.
Here's the only reason I did this last year.
Tyler Conklin, you look at his like full season route
participation and it's pretty high.
It actually was kind of intriguing if you break it down
in some splits. So the first couple weeks, I
don't know if Jeremy Rocker was hurt or just like not playing,
but he just had a handful of snaps In weeks one through 3,
Tyler Conklin was a full time player.
Then there was this big stretch of the season where they kind of
phased CJ Uzoma out and insisted on playing Rucker a little bit
more. You know, it's still only 30% of
snaps, but during that period, Tyler Conklin was just at like
60% of routes, which is really not sort of the bet you're
hoping for when you take Tyler Conklin.
And then towards the end of the season, Rucker got injured,
Conklin went back to being the full time player.
So yeah, I just wanted to bring that up in that I think people
are saying like Conklin's locked in 80% routes.
I don't think it's quite that simple still.
I think he's clearly like the favorite to be the starter.
But yeah, the Rucker itself did jump out to me a little bit when
I went through this. So Conklin has apparently had a
pretty strong offseason. I've I've read stuff of, you
know, Rogers having a good connection with him and stuff
from the Athletic. This piece that everything's
kind of old now. This is from June 17th.
But it was a note on all 90 players of The Jets.
Conklin, the note was one of the stars of OTA's.
He made multiple acrobatic catches and, next to Wilson,
stands to benefit the most from competent quarterback play.
He's in the last year of his contract with a lot to prove.
He acknowledges that the Bowers to The Jets talk motivated him.
And then the Rucker note is it's time for the former third year,
third round pick to live up to his potential.
He flashed in spurts last year and this spring he should at
least be an upgrade over CJ Uzama as the number 2 tight end.
So I can, I can definitely see your point on Rucker like having
some kind of role, but I would expect that Conklin is at least
in kind of the 60% round participation range with with
upside to get close to 80, you know, 75% ish.
And Rodgers has liked the tight end over the course of his
career. He's he's made guys who don't
have never really have mattered elsewhere matter.
So yeah, I mean, I I'm interested in 70% route
participation. Tyler Conklin.
I think that could be fun at this price.
Davidson and IT. Could be like I prefer Phant and
jig. Who we are, we already kind of
like, I guess the thing to me is that I sort of feel Conklin is
just kind of like, yeah, 606 totally possible.
I mean, I guess actually Conklin, maybe I should be more
into it because if Rogers just hates all these jabronis, you
know, like I'm kind of fading Mike Williams the the wide
receiver depth chart after Corley.
And like Corley I like, but could just not be an NFL wide
receiver. That's totally possible.
Like he can only do gimmick stuff.
You could definitely see Tyler Conklin having the Robert Tunyon
Memorial season. Or it's just Rogers.
It's just like, I hate all these guys so much.
I'm just throwing it to Conklin, Brees and Garrett Wilson and no
one else. I I guess we just have to know,
is Conklin in the inner circle? You know, is Conklin, is he in
with Rogers or is he out with Rogers?
Like, can you can you pull up a picture of Tyler Conklin,
please? He looks like Guy would be He
looks like he. Will Tyler Conklin because he
looks like in a dis Manvan the PFFSI think he's.
Has he gone? Has he gone on a three day
camping excursion with Rogers to take ayahuasca?
We we got to know. How?
How long has he been in the dark?
How long? Was he on the Egypt trip with
Rogers? Is he on?
Oh man, the Egypt trip. Tyler Conklin had 622 yards last
year for the 2023 Jets. Like I know he's not great, but
like he had zero touchdowns. Like what's the easiest way for
us to just hit on one of these guys?
It's like guy goes from zero touchdowns with Zach Wilson to
8. Touchdowns there in 1010.
Touchdowns with Rogers, totally. But I mean he's done it with
worst players. Yeah, so like, I don't know.
Like, yeah, I know he's had. By the way, Conklin has seven
career touchdowns, so if he got to 8, he'd more than double his
career total. But like.
Look at the dabrones Tyler Conklin has played with though.
Right. I mean, you know, just like kind
of a you're you're it's like a slightly more interesting guy
than Kate Onton. Weaker target competition,
better quarterback play. We know Rogers wants to throw
the ball in in the red at the three yard line and I like
Breece, but you know he's audible into A to a pass play,
you know it. Quick pop quiz Who had more
yards for outrun last season, Garrett Wilson or Tyler Conklin?
That's so good. Yeah, that's awesome.
That's awesome. I'm going to say Garrett Wilson.
Yeah, but it's it's closer than you think.
I just looked it up. It's 1.54 for Wilson and 1.32
for Conklin. Like the fact that it's that
close is either really good for Conklin or pretty bad for
Wilson. I think it's more likely to be
good for Conklin. Like 1.3 in the context of that
Jet's offense last year. For a tight end is is actually
pretty good. Yeah.
Can we do 'cause EPA for play for quarterbacks is a little bit
like, you know, hard to parse. Can we just do like how much,
how much yards per out run we should just add to your Cedars?
Like with with Zach Wilson, he's like worth 2 yards per out run
subtraction from all subtracts Wilson.
Yeah, Gary Wilson is like a 3.5 yards per out run without him.
So Tyler Conklin's 2.9 then if we're using two whole conversion
let's move here to the Titans. Yeah, let's, Yeah, you, you
definitely sold me on Conklin being a little bit more
interesting. Definitely.
I think belongs in the bucket with.
I'd say it's pretty comparable to like Hunter, Henry or Kadok.
Yeah, yeah, like 70% route participate.
He won't have everything, but he's out there enough.
You know you're betting on the offense to improve.
Yep, the Titans won this. This is one that has come up
recently as like a sneaky competition, some Josh Wild hype
I've seen, you know, something that you could only see in the
early days of July. That is the depths, dude.
That is the depths. But I don't know man, Josh Weil
ran like 50 routes, so these stats are fake.
He did flash like a little bit on those routes, but I kind of
have the same take that. 92nd out of 96 PFF run blocking grade
on 58 snaps. Yeah, and that's the thing, like
the the thing with Jig is supposed to be that like he
might lose his role 'cause he's like too small and can't block.
But and all the blocking stuff again, I I can't watch film and
tell you whether Jig Josh Weil. Is not big.
Josh Weil is 235 lbs. It's not.
It's not the the guy he would be.
I can't believe this is a name getting said on a fantasy
football show in 2024. The guy you'd be worried about
him losing run block snaps to would be Nick the Net.
Nick the net, an unrestricted free agent on on the the Titans.
Yeah, I Chig is like, Chig might be terrible, he really might be,
but come on, like it. Look, look at the context of the
offense. Look at what Chig has done as an
NFL player. You don't even have to squint
and see it. You just have to say the guy can
get 70% of the routes he can get.
What's a bullish per 91 targets? Is that bullish?
Is that appropriately bullish? Yeah, that seems like a solid.
And he and he scores, he scores 8 touchdowns because he can get,
you know, he can kind of get going in the open field.
It's just Chig is the good bet to make on Levis can actually
play that. This big bet the Titans have
made, signing Ridley, signing Boyd, revamping the offensive
line. I mean, the Titans did the smart
thing basically being like, let's see if we've got anything
with Levis. If we don't, we figure it out at
quarterback next year and at least the quarterback comes in
to like a team that's not the worst team in the NFLI.
Like Chick. I think Chick is a potential
Jake Ferguson guy. I could see it.
I mean, his route participation was like 68% last year.
He's shown an ability to earn targets.
I would put in more kind of like a Jonnu Smith kind of territory
than. It's literally exactly what he
is, yeah. Yeah, but it also it does feel
like a little ferk daddy to me. Oh God, yeah, yeah.
Remember, we all got excited about Anthony Perkser.
Who's gonna run the routes? Who's gonna run all the routes?
So. I think I went to Harvard.
I don't, I don't know. OK.
But he he had like similar kind of flashes in a small sample and
it was like his year to step up and do a thing and it just just
did not happen. But he started out 1.84 yards
per hour run 1.61.77. And then yeah, but he never he,
he peaked at 431 receiving yards.
So I'm just like I, I'm a little nervous about Shake given like
he's always been a part time player.
You're kind of hoping for him to get used in like sort of a
specialty yards after catch type of role.
But is he good enough to actually earn that?
I don't know. He could just kind of end up
being like a rotational bit player pretty easily.
Yeah, I mean, I get it's in the context of a couple offenses
where the wide receivers have been really weak, but 2021%
targets for route run on like 600 career routes is quite good.
It's pretty good. Like you're not yeah, you're not
seeing that number with like any of the guys we've talked about
so far today basically. But yeah, I, I do think people
talk about with Hopkins, like comparing Hopkins targets for
Outrun to like Ridley, for example, last year, like those
Hawkins targets for Outrun are just juiced by the fact that
he's playing next to, you know, Nick.
West I'm just not really considering any statistics from
the 2023 Titans. They just were, you think?
You think target stats are juiced when from a guy who had
to play with Will Levis last year as a rookie?
No targets for route. Targets for route run are.
Just like Navy, but it's yard. Sprout Run was good.
Yeah, yeah, no, I'm not. I'm not bashing Hopkins.
I'm just saying like when your target competition is dog shit,
like I don't think Chigakonkwa is gonna put up 21% targets per
route run right in this offense. This year, eight he.
It'll be 17% targets per route run, but the fantasy points
available should be higher for. Everyone.
Yeah, they pass a lot, I think. I don't love Boyd, I don't love
Boyd being there. They're gonna be out of true
three wide a decent amount. Yeah, but but they're like, I
think you're right. But they're receiving depth
chart after Boyd. I mean, it goes to 0
immediately. There is not one other talented
player on this. Lovers come.
On. Man, you can't.
He's not making. He's not making.
He's not making the team, dude. He's a pretty good 4th receiver.
He's such a tough ball case for. Jayla, he is, he is not, he is
not making the team and it would be better.
He's on the Jalen Reger career path.
He's. Going to be paid for it it's
over it's. Over dude, there's reports that
he was he was punt gunning really well.
The the thing that the thing that everyone is doing now is
being like, well, you know, the kickoff rules might help my guy
who I really want to make the roster.
Chillin Burke's doing the new kickoff rules.
Come on. I think he might have hurt him.
You want him running, like, run far is like one of his
strengths. It might actually hurt him,
Yeah. Let's move here to Washington.
I, I don't have AI, don't have a lot to say on this one, but I
don't know it's going to be Zach Irts as a starter like through
at least mid season I think. Until he gets hurt.
Until. Until he gets hurt, he's running
71% of the routes. There's nothing I can do about
it. There's nothing you can do about
it. There's nothing Ben Sinnett can
do about it. It just it, it is a fact of
life. So I I'm I'm understanding why
Pete didn't put finding the next Tray McBride on here because you
guys are out on the intriguing young title.
No, because of Zach Ertz. In incorrect I love Ben sinnett.
Ben Sinnett went to my alma mater.
I like Ben Sinnett, I especially now that his price kind of came
back to reality. It was like a week there where
he was like the tight end 16. And I was like, that might be
that might be a little bit much. But now that he's like, yeah,
which is reflective of which is reflective of reality.
But I I think there are arguments to take Senate and I
think there are there are certain like when you take TJ
hawkinson Ertz is a great sandwich, right?
You get the, you get the first six weeks of the season where
ertz. Yeah, what could go wrong there?
The TJ Hawkinson and Zacker. The T you don't think the TJ
Hawkinson Chicaconqua Zach Ertz tight end room is what you need
to ship? Imagine flipping over a week 17
lineup and it has TJ Hawkinson and Zach Ertz on it.
This is Michael Scott, please God no.
This is the only reaction. So this was for Arizona last
year before Zach Ertz got injured sharing a team with Trey
McBride. 6 for 21, six for 56, two for six lol. 6 for 53, two
for 10 on 75% of the snaps. That was the first month of the
season. I'm sorry dude.
I, I don't I, it doesn't make me like I love Ben Sinnett.
I loved him as a prospect. I took him and tell him these
rookie drafts brings me no joy to report this, but it will be
happening. I'm not saying I'm out on
Sinnett, but I'd I'd be pretty shocked if Zach Kurtz wasn't the
starter for at least like a month and possibly more.
The the reports on Senate from camp is that he's been playing
fullback. Well, that is pretty awful.
Position that he played in college.
That was his natural position. No, he was a converted fullback.
He played tight end, Yeah. I think he's fine where he goes
at 175 and definitely is like if you want the mystery box upside,
he's I think, I think he's priced appropriately now.
I just think like it was crazy when he was going.
Out. Yeah, it got a little. 1:45 or
whatever at the peak. But now, now he's just a good
pick. You can take him Correlated.
Yeah, yeah. I, I like to take Sennet,
obviously with Daniels. Yeah.
I mean, now you're kind of deciding between him and
McCaffrey and you, and you might not get both, which feels a lot
more reasonable. But I mean Zachary turns 34 in
November. He had 1.08 yards per out run in
20221.01 last year. Like this dude?
No one's saying he's good. I don't think anyone, I don't
think anyone is arguing that he's good.
Well, he's, he's washed enough that I think he can, he can just
hand off the job to it's up. It's how good Sanat is.
How good is Sanat? And I think he's probably pretty
good. Like I think he probably is
pretty good. So I think it happens the the
combination of him being more washed than he was each of the
last two seasons with Cliff and Sanaa being pretty good.
I mean, obviously the thing that gives you pause is people do
actually forget this. He was literally the first name
announced an NFL free agency like the the legal tampering
window hit and Adam Schefter tweeted out Zach Ertz signed a
one year $5,000,000 deal with the Washington Commanders.
Like Cliff could not wait to get that one across the finish line,
dude. How pissed are the Washington
commanders that they didn't get Ben Johnson?
They're just, they're never gonna get over it.
They get Cliff Kingsgury, and as a result, they prioritize Zach
Ertz in free agency. Like just just such a bad run
out for them. And they didn't get Drake May
because because Cliff and Cliff and the new coaching staff
that's really that's really if you if you want to go down the
rabbit hole that could end up being a real sliding glass
doors. So I don't have a ton of.
So these next two guys, two guys who were injured right now who I
think are the clear starters. I don't think there's a ton to
discuss here. I think like the only guys that
are draftable are Hawkinson and Johnson.
I'm not really touching any of the depth pieces.
I don't know. I guess we should start with
talking about Hawkinson. I actually think at 150 like
I've drafted him a decent bit there.
Definitely depends on your team structure, but I think you're
getting like a pretty good bet for the last 6.
Weeks. Ten weeks the season, like in an
upside case I think it's fine at 150.
Like if you're gonna draft 3 tight ends anyways.
So it's it's. Fine at 1:50 I guess, but he's
going behind Musgrave and and I've Musgrave is on my mind
because they play each other week 17.
So I often have, if I'm in the Hawkinson market, I often have a
Packer and a Viking and I'm like, why wouldn't I just take
Musgrave? You know, second year player,
promising rookie year. I gotta take this guy coming off
a late season multi ligament tear.
Like I don't know, I I've taken him, but it's he's not quite to
the level where I think he's a comfy clique.
You know, if he was another round lower then I would
probably take him at a decent clip.
But it's still like, I don't know, there's, there's still
guys in that range. Like I don't like Cole Commet
very much, but I, you know, he's going like 5 picks ahead of
Hawkinson. I'd, I'd much rather have him.
He's he's healthy. Yeah, I don't know.
It's just that Hawkinson was so at his peak, was so much better
than those guys that I'm trying to take the mindset of like, no,
no, it feels so tough now to do it versus those guys that are
clear starters gonna be healthy the whole season.
But what if if Hawkinson's not injured in this drafting
environment, he's probably, what, like it was right next to
Kyle Pitts, I would guess, if he's fully healthy.
I think that would be if he were to one of the worst picks on the
board because he's he's he's got JJ McCarthy or Sam Donald at
quarterback. Like Kirk Cousins isn't there
anymore, you know, like, and I think Hawkinson has never been
like truly elite. He peaked last year with 1.89
yards per out run. He had 1.73 the year before
that. That was the year he was traded
from Detroit to Minnesota. His career is 1.63.
Like he's been better than Cole Comet, but Cole Comet was at
1.69 yards per out run last year.
Like he's not. He's he's.
Been very productive in a high volume passing offense that may
not be as high volume as it has been in the past.
Partly, you know, because they're losing Kirk Cousins and
partly because by the end of the season it might be JP McCarthy,
like it might actually get lower volume over the course of the
year if they move to the rookie. And then you also have Jordan
Addison coming on, who looked good, like Jordan Addison by the
end of his second season is going to be more target
competition for Hawkinson than he was last year.
So I don't know. I, I, I think Hawkinson has a
number of factors that you have us down on him compared to last
year other than the injury. And then you factor in the
injury and it's like, bam, like is this guy even adding that
much upside for me at the end of the year?
You know, if I'm talking about JJ McCarthy's number three
target. I see the side of it.
Davis, what are your thoughts on Parkinson at this press?
Every person who is sharp or sharp adjacent has had the fake
sharp thought of I struck out on all the elite tight ends.
I didn't get Marc Andrews. I didn't even get Brock Powers.
I need to get some upside in the fantasy playoffs from tight end.
I'll simply take TJ Hawkinson and two veterans and then
Hawkinson will give me the elite upside.
It's like maybe he will. I don't know.
You don't know. No one really has any way of
knowing. This is one of the more
unknowable situations, like if he comes back and he's helped,
you got to hit this parlay. He's got to come back probably a
little bit earlier then you'd think.
Like this does have to be a spot where we look back and we're
like, oh, modern medicine. Modern medicine really did
really did work there. And McCarthy has got to be good.
Like McCarthy has got to be justifiable.
What was he? The 9th pick?
6th, 4th pick I. Don't know the 12th pick I
think. The 12th pick, Sure, he's got to
justify that. The thing is, I just think it's
going to be like, even if McCarthy's not that good and
assume Hawkinson is back healthy for the back half of the season
here, it's going to be one of the most concentrated passing
attacks in the NFL. Like who?
Who is the Vikings #3 wide receiver?
Like they're talking about in the beats that they need to sign
some veteran because the number three's there.
So unproven. Like there.
There's just not a lot of like tertiary guys that are going to
be involved there. I don't think it's that hard
from a projection standpoint to get.
Jefferson to his 30%, Addison to 2025 and Hawkinson also 20%
plus. Yeah, I I just don't see it as a
situation where it matters that much from a target competition.
But yeah, going to the running backs, I don't know, that feels
like if you have two receivers that are combining for 50% of
the targets, it doesn't leave a ton or 55% of the targets maybe
it doesn't leave a ton. And I don't like to be honest,
even if he was fully healthy, I would take Bowers over him.
Yeah, I mean it. Seems crazy to me.
I would not. I would take him at Titan Seven.
I would take him ahead of Ingram.
You would take Ingram? Yeah, that's what I'm saying.
Like if Evan Ingram in this draft environment is getting
propped up based on just like volume.
I think maybe we should be taking Bowers ahead of Ingram
though. Yeah, well, OK, so so that is
the total that's a that's a neither here nor there situation
like an alternate sliding doors reality.
The thing is, is Hawkinson gets to play a bunch of Dome games
with like I say this all the time talking about the Jefferson
thing. I mean, people do forget this is
the same cheating bullshit that Brock Pretty gets to deal with.
Like the the Minnesota offense is the same West Coast paint by
numbers, easiest possible thing you can do as a quarterback and
he gets to throw to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ
Hawkinson and a really good receiving back and Aaron Jones.
Like it, it is set up like if you told me Hawkinson was like
the low advance rate, high, high EV.
Guy, I'd be. Like, absolutely, I totally get
it, yeah. Yeah, that's what I think.
You do have to be careful with how you're building with him.
Like I don't think like Hawkinson Bowers is that good of
a combination cause both of those guys could be slow
starters and like tank your advance rate.
But maybe like Hawkinson with two of the boring guys like
Hunter Henry and yeah, I don't know, whatever, Kate Alton,
right? Something like that I think is
actually a pretty high upside tight end build that doesn't
cost you that much and I think you can survive it with those
boring guys. Yeah, it's a little sonati to
me, you know. Yeah, but like, I don't know,
like Hunter Henry is kind of just as appealing to me as TJ
Hawkinson where you're like this guy, it's not as exciting, but
there's like available targets. He's healthy all year.
And I'm betting on the late season upside in the sense that
the quarterback is coming on down the stretch.
And, you know, there's touchdowns to be had in this
offense now because the the offense at the end of the year
is way better than we, you know, we're imagining it to be and
then probably was in like Week 1.
So I don't know, that's just like given the full bet.
But again, I think Hockinson has always kind of been overrated.
He's never had from the efficiency side of things a
really impressive season. He's had some good seasons.
He's been very productive. But I think he's he's more
sensitive to to overall passing volume than the market seems to
think. Yeah, and he definitely was
trying to having a career year last year. 1.9 yards for Outrun,
20%, twenty 4% targets for Outrun.
Like I, I think you kind of would have got to the elite
category with how we're defining elite these days.
Like those are much better numbers than Dalton, Kincaid,
Kyle Pitts, like any of those guys have ever put up in terms
of yard sprout, run. Maybe, maybe not Pitts.
Rookie. Yeah, yeah.
But yeah, but I see where you're coming from.
Let's talk quickly on on Saints. I'm still thinking Juan Johnson
last round. It's it's a little scary with
this foot thing, but. Just completely happy to hear
that. Yeah, it's completely free now.
And like the reports are that he's likely to be back for the
start of the season, even if that is like overly optimistic
and he misses a month. Like, I guess it doesn't seem
that bad to me. Again, it it depends on your
tight end room. Like if you desperately need
tight end scoring, hopefully you don't pick two O 8 but.
Yeah. Because there's no.
If you do, I have bad news, Yeah.
Don't take, don't take, don't take Juan Johnson with TJ
Hawkinson, but maybe take him with Zach Ertz can I sell you?
Can I sell you? Can I sell you on a Noah fan?
Juan Johnson, Zach Ertz tight end room.
It's. Not the worst thing ever.
No, you can't. Here's the deal.
I was I apparently missed the memo from legendary upside slash
ship chasing slappies that we were all in on Juwan Johnson
this year completely passed me by missed it.
You know, I go into chat, I go into I go into the Discord and
people are are, you know, rending their garments and
gnashing their teeth about this Juwan Johnson injury.
So now it's time for me to catch up.
I get to be part of the group now because now I can take him
in the 18th round. So it feels feels great now.
Now I can be part of the of the friends.
I, I like it. I yeah, no, he's his profile
like isn't that impressive, But he was, you know, he's kind of
the big receiver type. He's been used downfield,
although last year you only had an 8A dot, but he, he was at 9.8
the year before, 11.5 the year before.
So he's been used downfield as kind of a big receiver field
stretcher guy. Well.
He was the receiver. At all.
Yeah, converted wide receiver Jimmy Graham also like caught I
think 4 touchdowns last year. He's gone.
There's like a little bit more like to the tight end position
than there was last year and then like they just don't have a
wide receiver three. So, you know, it's not like the
highest upside crack, but in a tight end environment that got
gross pretty quickly. I I liked Juan Johnson a lot
when he was healthy. It does scare me, the foot
injury thing. I mean, like players with
offseason, you know, and, and not like early offseason, but
middle like summer foot injury, like probably back for Week 1
makes me nervous as hell. And I had a bag of them ahead of
time. So now I've kind of the opposite
where I'm like, well, I already, if Juan Johnson is what you
need, like then I'll I'll be OK 'cause he wasn't ever that
expensive. You know, I took him to like
pick 160 or whatever. Like it's not that different
than the 20th round. And why am I gonna add to the
position post foot injury? So I'm I'm down to 11%, but at
one point I was like at like 1516%.
Johnson. You were rending your garments.
I was. You were.
Yeah, I have some. I can go grab them.
They're rended. Down your your greatest when
you're funny is extra funny 'cause that's not like your
brand being funny, you know? And I sometimes will just be
doing something on my own and I'll laugh thinking about your
Zach Ertz tweet right after they took Ben sent it.
Like I will like I'll just, I'll just be doing I'll be doing some
yard work, walking my dog or something.
And I'll be like, remember when Karain did that really funny
Zach Ertz tweet? And I'll just go look it up.
I kind of had you in my head a little bit when I was like the
the just a ration it. Was kind of for.
It was kind of for. It was kind of for you, It
really was. Yeah, last thing I said in New
Orleans, this comment from Burgundy in the chat, Yeah, all
the like. So both Shaheed and Olave have
had really high a dots. So one of these Saints pass
catchers has to kind of fill the over the middle role.
Kamara obviously will soak up some of that, Taysom Hill will
soak up some of that. But that's kind of why I was
interested in Juwan. And everyone should check out
Gretch and Leonie's projections podcast.
They made that point as well that like someone has to fill
that void on New Orleans of sort of the short dump off territory.
And I think Juwan, if he can get back from the foot injury at
some point early in the season is the best bet to do that.
So yeah, again, not a huge high upside crack, but I think a
pretty. Maybe I'll get back in and just
start kind of and try to stay kind of even ish with the field
now, which which isn't even at 8% since he doesn't get drafted
all the time. But I like that.
I mean, God, they do need someone to be that third guy.
What if it's what if they? What if they totally subvert all
of our expectations and they just run Shahid on 8 yard
crossers all day? I think both Shahid and Allah.
They probably have more in their bag than what they've shown.
And and AT Perry can't do that. So AT Perry then becomes the
DeVry Anderson where he just is is 9 routes all day.
I I think AT Perry would love to be Deborah Henderson like that.
Would be Perry is is he? Would love to be remembered on a
podcast 8 years from now. That's a good outcome for him.
Remember. Remember wide receiver 38
Marquez Callaway that. That's what he.
That would be peak AT Perry. He would.
He would settle for Callaway's peak ADP.
He doesn't. Even if he doesn't match the
production, that would be the one.
So true, yeah. That was the biggest form of
mass delusion I've I've ever seen.
In it was insane. I am.
So I'm so proud of myself because I'm so susceptible to
being influenced by stuff like that, and I am so proud of
myself for realizing that was insane it.
Was one of the worst. It would be like the equivalent
of what, like Josh Reynolds surged to like the eighth round
off good. It would it would be like, it
would be like if, if Josh Palmer this year was like a sixth round
pick in this in, in this wide receiver environment.
It even seems crazier than that, though, because at least
Palmer's done like something like Holloway.
Was Holloway had done nothing. Right.
Yeah, he'd done nothing. And it was, it was like an
offense because what it was, Thomas got hurt or something,
but it was like an offense that was sort of built on one player.
Honestly, it would be like if Trey Tucker went in the eighth
round like it's. Almost.
That would be. That that was the first Michael
Thomas injury year. 33 year old Emmanuel Sanders led the wide
receivers in targets that year for the Saints.
All right, ADB chasing listeners, we're almost, we're
almost done here. Last slide, I do think it's
interesting to point out some contingent tight end upside
plays. Isaiah Likely is obviously the
one that everyone knows about and talks about, but I think
there are some other ones that are draftable and stacks only.
So yeah, curious what you guys think.
Davis, do you have any takes on the Chiefs situation, 'cause I
think if we knew who the clear backup was there that would be
draftable in the home stacks. But yeah, any any takes on like
any of these guys? Are they worth drafting if you
have it stacked? So there there are.
I mean, there are a couple things to note here.
So the first is, is that Herb Smith junior is still on the
Kansas City Chiefs. Like he he's actually still he's
still on the roster. I anticipate he will probably
make the roster. I I think he I think he probably
will make the opening day 53 man roster.
I think their ideal would be to put Wiley kind of a red shirt
year. But I do think they realized
when when Kelsey has not been available and when Kelsey was
playing injured last year, like the obviously the idea was for
Noah Grey to like get time in the system.
He's been on the team. He plays all these snaps.
He's a great run blocker. Like, can we just roll on like
Kelsey retires and we kind of already have our guy ready made.
And no, Grey is not it. No, Grey is more of a a
traditional blocking tight end. Noah Grey played 55% of the
snaps for the Kansas City Chiefs last year.
He turned that in for 28 receptions, 305 yards and two
touchdowns. He's just not going to earn a
ton of targets. And I don't think that would
change if Kelsey got hurt. My expectation would be if
Kelsey got injured would be for them to try Wiley out in that
role because he's a more prototypical receiving tight
end. I don't think either of them, I
think the fact that they both exist means that you can't
really draft like I was drafting Noah Gray a little bit last
year, like round 20 on DK. Like, you know, he's going to be
on the field, contingent value, whatever.
It didn't, it didn't play out. And I think that is sadly the
way it is. I mean, I'm not going to tell
you don't take them because you're betting against a 34 year
old tight end. But they definitely and if
Kelsey gets her herbs, that's definitely active.
Yeah, if it was more clear cut, it'd be more interesting, but
it's it's too muddled for me to really take shots on.
Yeah, I think. Knox is the best Knox is the
best screen right now. I agree.
Yeah, Knox is very draftable. You're betting on a touchdown
from Josh Allen. You know, he, I, I tack him onto
Josh Allen's stuff where I don't get Dalton Kincaid kind of as a
contingent value play to some extent.
But also just like he's going to run.
I don't know, I said like 5560% earlier.
That's probably too high. It's probably more like 40 to
45% of the routes. But he'll be out there a decent
amount of the time. And when he's out there, it's
probably going to be in 12 personnel stuff.
It'll probably be more around the goal line, you know, so
you're I mean, it's a it's an Josh Allen offense.
You're betting on a touchdown in the last round.
It it seems fine to me, you know, and as far as contingent
value goes, I think it's reasonably similar to Isaiah
likely. You know, he's not as good as
likely. He's not as fun as likely, but
it's you know, you're you're getting Josh Allen's starting
tight end. If if don't Kincaid where you
hurt? Might might like he might
played. He might end up 5th on the Bills
and receptions anyway. Yeah, that's honestly true.
Yeah. And I mean, Joe Brady showed
some interest in kind of playing more power football stuff.
So maybe they they still run a decent amount of 12 this year.
I I really don't know. But yeah, I mean, just as like a
dart throw, please God, get in the end zone like you could, you
could do worse. Michael Mayer's the other guy
that I draft here a little bit. Yeah, he's gonna point him out.
I mean, another guy, like, if we're thinking about contingent
value here, like I think Mayor will have a role, you know, he's
probably like Harrison Bryant, you know?
Yeah, But like. Yikes.
Yeah, 200. Harrison Bryant is also on this
team, I'm pretty sure. He is, that's true.
That's yeah. He signed a one year, $4 million
contract. I mean, he had.
So Harrison Bryant had three straight seasons of or two
straight seasons of 230 plus yards and three touchdowns.
That's you're just hoping to get one of those.
Touchdowns and that and and that and Mackie.
Yeah. But I mean, the it's just the
Bowers pick was so bizarre cause like Meyer's like a fine NFL
tight ends. I don't know, but yeah, like.
They wanted Pennix. I'm convinced they wanted
Pennix. I think it was a panic pick.
I I wanted a quarterback, yeah. The the someone a story is out
there that they flipped the coin between him and Terry and
Arnold. I I think Terry and Arnold was
saying that in in like media stuff afterwards that would.
Be like FaceTime, Terry and during the coin flip.
How does that All right now let me let me look.
Let me look. Brock Bowers, Terry and.
Arnold put the coin first before you call him.
I think we're going to draft Atarian and.
Bummer. Yeah, yeah.
Raiders Raiders draft Brock Bowers over Atarian Arnold,
according to a coin flip. Oh my God, dude.
And then and then Antonio Pierce.
Antonio Pierce denied it. Oh.
So what is he going if that coin flip comes up the other way?
Is Brock Bowers on the Rams? Is that the alternate reality?
In In the perfect world, he's on the Bengals.
He goes to Elast to pick 18 and the Bengals take him.
God. It's disgusting.
Yeah, Michael Mayer, All I'll say I'm Mayer is like, I was
trying to think of like the Trey McBride archetype.
And it's not a perfect one for one, but Mayer is the closest to
that in that he's second year tight end, a prospect we really
liked at one point and is just completely buried.
On a really uninspiring rookie year, 'cause that's the thing
with with Trey McBride. Rod had a terrible rookie year.
Yeah. So yeah, these small sample like
tight, I'm not reading too much into these small sample tight
end rookie years. Mayor, The thing is like Mayor
just needs the Bowers injury. But I agree with Ukraine that I
think we'll have like a 40% route participation even if
Bowers is. Healthy.
It might be 35, yeah, but. It'll be.
Just like. Yeah, it's, it's like definitely
a bad scenario, but not like you're totally dead to have him
hit the line up on a couple touchdowns.
But it yeah, it's basically a contingent play at that point.
Yeah. All right, yeah, let's let's
maybe summarize like going through the tight end.
Let me get out of my paper bag and just summarize this podcast.
Yeah, just looking at our podcast.
What an insane we didn't even mention Kade Stover.
Oh God, what? What team is he even on?
Come on, dude, Ohio State. You, you don't, you don't know
about the Ohio State bias, bro. He's on, he's on the he's on the
Texans. He's on the Texans.
He might be, he might be the, the dude who's making you curse.
You know, I got CJ Stroud after ADP, I got to take Dalton
Schultz and Noah Brown. And then it's all of a sudden
it's week eight and Kate Stover's running the routes.
It does. It does seem like an OK year for
like like I I'm more interested in late round tight end in
manage leagues after doing this. Cause like there's a lot of
stuff like show me week one, Like let me take a peek at this
tight end room and this tight end room.
And then all of a sudden like all the Bengals might be
interesting. There's contingent value guys
like can't you see us Davis FFPC, it's week 11.
We're just like, empty, the clip Brevin Jordan empty.
The clip this is, there's gonna be Mike Asicki.
Mike Asicki is out for four weeks.
He, he hurts his wrist or something.
And they've, they've put Eric all on the IR and it's like,
dude, I, I just bid $411.00 on Tanner McLaughlin in the main
event. Yes, I can see it.
Yeah, I agree. And in the the Titan premium
leagues, I think there's going to be like starting tight ends
that don't get drafted and week one on waivers, you have going
to have the chance to, I don't know, pick up Davis Allen, who's
surprisingly the starter for the Rams or Tanner Hudson for the
Bengals, right? Like, there's so many of these
completely muddled situations that it's definitely worth
monitoring. But let's let's let's give our
favorite late round tight end bets.
Let's cap the ADP at 1:50 and above.
So Luke Musgrave is out, but Hunter Henry, all those other
guys are in. What is your guys bet for, you
know, most likely to be a top five tight end in per game
scoring out of anybody who's 150 ADP and above?
I'll start with Ukraine. Hunter, Henry.
Yeah, if it was top ten, I would say no, a fan, but I don't think
he's got top five in his range because he just can't get the
raw number of targets. So I'll say jig, I'll I'll
actually, I think I think we could just see like a a super.
I mean, didn't he already have a nine touchdown season?
Or is that Jonny Smith? One of those two guys did have a
nine touchdown season for the Titans?
I I'll say I'll say jig. He just randomly spikes like an
11 touchdown year. Yeah.
I mean, so the Hunter Henry thing, it is just basically just
a bet on May, but we have seen guys that we were excited about
earlier in their careers, late in their careers turn in seasons
that, you know, we're like, oh, OK, Eric Ebron, you know.
Henry was like, not bad last year either.
He scored. He scored 6 receiving touchdowns
on a team that scored 23 touchdowns total.
On off Yeah. He's always been a high
touchdown rate guy his whole. Year that's the other thing you
you can count on him around the red zone completely again, it's
mostly bet on May but like if you look at the depth chart at
wide receiver as we know like we're we're drafting all these
random guys at the end of the you know KJ Osborne is in the
conversation like you know there's I have a baggage of Von
Baker, but he might literally be a zero like there's lots of
targets available in this offense and he's just like he's
gonna be out there running the routes.
So the last couple years he had Jonnu Smith behind him and then
Mike Asicki that guy's not there anymore that dude who's like
gonna take a bunch of his routes uselessly like he's he's gonna
be out there. I think I don't think he'll be
like every snap like Otten or something, but I think he's
probably and he's very safe for like 70% of the routes could be
80% and you know, you're he's he's been like pretty good his
whole career. So just like a a sneaky awesome
set up for Henry, especially when you think about what the
late season version of this team could look like if May is good.
Yeah, I think those are both good ones and and better than
than mine. But the third name I throw out
is is Johnny Smith. I think similar to Hunter Henry,
just a guy who's been pretty good his whole career.
The big difference between Johnny and Henry is that
Johnny's never earned the full time tight end role.
So it's certainly a bit of a leap projecting that on Tim in
Miami. But if he does like his per
route numbers, could certainly get him there.
Maybe you get a couple games where Tyreek or Waddle are down
and he's kind of forced in as the second target earner in
Miami. So yeah, I'll throw Jonny in
there. Just wide open depth chart.
Been a pretty good, efficient player.
Hopefully he gets the role that he sort of hasn't hasn't fully
got thus far in his NFL career. And you know, ADP value isn't
huge at this point in the drop, but he goes like 30 picks after
Henry. So yeah, I mean, he is.
He is really, really well priced.
I like Jonny a lot. It's just hard for me to take
tertiary dolphins because I'm always having to cover up for
week 6 buys. Just always having to.
I'm always having to figure out week six buys so I'm just like,
shit. Dude I've never once sweated a
week 6 by week 14 buys. Good God.
Well, the Week 6 by, the Week 6 by is the Vikings, the Chiefs
and the Dolphins, and I take players from those guys in the
first six rounds a lot like probably every draft.
Yeah. All right, well on the show,
let's do the the game we always do.
Biggest closing line value risers.
Doesn't have to be tight ends. You gotta take a tight end.
Should we do that? Gotta take a tight.
End. Yeah, you gotta take a tight
end. You gotta take a tight end all.
Right. I'll let me go first, yeah.
Please do. Fuck, why did I say that?
I don't know. I'm gonna.
Pick. Oh, I got it.
I got one easy. Let me go before both you guys
'cause I have the fucking clear answer, which is Brock Bowers.
Brock Bowers. I know I was gonna pick Bowers.
He's gonna. I almost took him but I got I
he's. Gonna catch a 27 yard swing pass
in the first preseason game and he's gonna go ahead of Kyle
Pitts. I mean, you could just write
that. You can get that tattooed on
yourself right now. It's a lock.
I mean, we can. We can all admit that Brock
Bowers is definitely a better NFL player than Kyle Pitts,
right? I don't know if I I don't think
I would say that, but I know beyond a shadow of a doubt he is
going to get a minimum of three lay UPS per game that Kyle Pitts
will never get. He'll never get the the easy 7
yard crossers that that Brock is going to get or are.
Has Kyle Pitts ever been thrown a screen in the NFLI?
Don't think so. Bowers.
Is going to get looking it up. Never.
Yeah, he's, he's going to get. He's bad.
Like watch Kyle Pitts after the catch.
She's like, he's bad at it. I don't know, I've been fully
Jacob Sanderson pilled on ever since he bullied me on that
podcast and. This Yeah, Sanderson, like,
because he's Canadian, he's nice.
He's like a genuinely nice guy. But when he bullies you, it's
extremely effective. Like I've never.
He's a he's a very convincing man, yeah.
Yeah, all right, Crayon. You got another another riser.
God I I don't this. I'll, I'll look for one.
I'll I'll take a swing here. I'm taking big cuts this game.
TJ Hawkinson. Maybe we just get.
No, like through good reports. You're so right.
Exactly like last year, Zach Ertz was supposed to be out for
a while coming off his ACL tear and was just like back week one
and the starter, right? Obviously that that failed on
the stretch. But what if like Hawkinson just
beats the timelines? We get a good report.
I think the upside on his ADP is a lot higher and I definitely
can see it going the other way. But you know, I'm I'm not trying
to finish second in this closing line value game, trying to
finish first. So I'll take a big cut with
Hawkinson. Hope hopefully we get some good
reports. All right, I'm going to go with
a guy that I'm actually not that excited about it at a rising
price. We've fallen actually slightly
behind on him, behind ADP on him at legendary upside, but it's
kind of the Dontavian Wicks mold of I've yet to hear a bear case
on him. No a fan, no a fan.
We're all, we're doing the Ouija board thing where we all just
kind of push no a fan up and there's no countervailing force.
Well, no, the to be fair, I think the fan thing is mostly
content creators who do projections and things the the
chat does not see. Any time I talk about no a fan
on these shows our our friends in the chat are like dude, are
you kidding me? The fourth option on the
Seahawks? Like they're not into it.
All right, maybe it's a bad pick, but he's I could see him
just kind of getting continually steamed by content creators
until it's ridiculous. The narrative is just too clean,
like the the David and Joku comparisons, like the Eric Ebron
comparisons, like it's just such a clean.
It's a clean for him. Yep.
All right, guys, Davis, I know you got some streams coming up
tomorrow. I think I'm joining you on one.
Anything else you got going on? Yep, streams, best ball and
dynasty rankings are are updated on the Patreon if you guys want
to check. Actually just actually, I just
did an article today about some of the guys I'm I'm scrolling
the F down for including Lucas Kroll.
I, I, I buried my own lead here. I gave away the Lucas Kroll
alpha for him being a seven-year college player and a nepo baby
for free here here on the stream.
But yeah, you'll you'll be on the stream tomorrow noon
central. Sam's coming on, Neil Orfield's
coming on and Levitan's coming on.
Don't worry, the Tanner McLaughlin Alpha's behind the
pay. That's behind the paywall.
That's for Subs only. Yeah, Cade Stover, you got a
Deanne Davis. You got to Venmo him to to get
that Intel. Correct.
Crane anything legendary upside you want to tell people about?
Legendaryupside.com. We've got Best Ball rankings.
We've got lots of content coming out soon.
I'm working on like three articles.
Hopefully I'll get some writing done tomorrow.
Get those rolling out if you want to check out our dynamic
Best Ball rankings tool legendaryupside.com/sidekick.
All right, And we'll be back next week, I believe, with JJ
Zachary Reeson. So that'll be a much better
episode. This will say eat your
vegetables episode here. Eat your vegetables.
The only I guarantee you this is the only fantasy podcast that's
spent 10 minutes on a giant tight end wrasse.
The entire. Offseason festivals are
nutritious. At least I mean.
You did not need to know about Lawrence Cager's college career.
You really? Didn't I did not need to pull up
Drew Ogletree's. Statue this year.
Who was The Who was the tight end you touted early on that I
can't even remember behind McBride?
Tip Ryman bro. Tip Ryman I've.
Wiped that name from. My man, I did not.
I did not. I did OK.
I did not tout Tip Ryman, I merely pointed out that he was
the 3rd tight end drafted and he put him in the non.
Berated Stamp about inappropriately listing Chip
Ryman. That wasn't sufficiently.
All right, it's over. See you guys.
Chip chasing.