It's week four and this is stat chasing.
We'll take you through all the usual charts and talk about the
curse of the B teams. Why do the Broncos, the Bears,
the Bengals and the Browns sucks so bad?
Did the Bills steal all their mojo for all B teams in the
league? Find out this and more on stat
chasing Pat Fryer homo this. Is squat.
This is squat. I'm Pat Anita.
Hand job, fix your site, Jamar. And also play chase.
Are you kidding me? You can't handle the heat.
It looks like we're finally at this point.
You're right. Good evening, Drico.
Hope you're doing well on this. Lovely.
I hope you didn't use all your prep.
Time taking of that intro, Zach. No, that one, man.
We're just going off the top of the Dome here.
How is Week 4 for you? And pretty good, pretty good.
Obviously a little bit down to reality or back down to Eric for
Laporta, one of my higher exposure players, a Chan
continuing to put up great numbers.
So that that's a big boost. And tracking about 2020 223%
advance rate quarter way true, which for considering all the
young players I draft like I've never been that high and the
start of the year. So that's a great start for me.
Yeah, how about you? It was the week 4:00.
I definitely came back down to earth.
A lot of my my players that have been running really hot earlier
and I, I had some absurd advance rates earlier I was like over
50% in the big board, which base rate for big board is 25%,
that's three of 12, but still being 50% is absurd.
And then basketball mania is always like high 20s and low 30s
and I think in week three I was like low 30s or something when I
had some crazy stuff go off. I think the A Chan game kind of
boosted me up a bit there this week.
I'm back down to like 25% across the portfolio between FFPC,
underdog, DK. So pretty, pretty pleased with
the with the 25%. And that's that's not counting
the wonky advance rate stuff where you get like the 3/3 of 12
advance or more than that, right?
Right. Just in the normal advance rate
structure stuff. Yeah.
It was is an interesting week
for some of the players that I was most excited for, some of my
highest exposure guys, but I'm sure we'll we'll get into all
those here during the charts. Yeah, so that's a that's a
pretty firm instruction for me to get into these.
And so as always, we start off with our QB passing efficiency
and rushing production and so horizontal access.
We've got adjusted yards per temp.
And pretty straightforward. The adjustment is to boost
touchdowns and then take away for our punish interceptions.
And so pretty intuitive like how well are they throwing the ball
per attempt And we've got a touchdown rate and pretty
straightforward. And then the size of the bubble
of each player is there. They're rushing yards per game.
With this one over here and being represented about what 100
yards a game would look like, a lot of, a lot of the guys are
hanging out near, you know, where they were in previous
weeks. Right to to is still, you know
blazing the trail as the most efficient quarterback, you know
the looking like a very desirable quarterback to have in
basketball and you know excited about his prospects going
forward. Josh Allen had his his nuclear
week that we were all waiting for this week and got himself
moving in the right direction on the charts.
One that I I thought was really interesting.
And really I guess we we can talk about these two in tandem
because they're in a pretty similar spot for adjusted yards
per attempt. But that's Baker Mayfield and
Josh Jobs, though. Both of them were entirely free
in in basketball drafts all summer.
You know Baker got drafted. At least some Josh Dobbs I don't
think got drafted hardly at all. I haven't looked at at the
underdog data on who was actually.
Right, there's no chance he's drafted, just cuz he wasn't.
He wasn't even on the Cardinals until like 2 weeks before the
season. But obviously lots of drafts do
happen in that two weeks. So if you were in any Super Flex
drafts may maybe particularly the Super Flex 2 and FFBC.
With the benefit of that news and and you were taking Dobbs
that that's a clear, clear smash there.
Yeah. The interesting thing about
Dobbs is if you look at the size of his data point here, he's
he's rushing a good bit, right? Like he's he's rivaling Jalen
Hertz, you know, not quite to the level of Anthony Richardson
or Lamar Jackson. But he is a quarterback where
rushing is a part of his game. So that's very intriguing.
Definitely a guy that I'm interested in in resurrection,
assuming that. He's on, Yeah, 200 ADP.
He's on a 200 ADP. Okay.
Very priority target there, right?
Yeah, I would be smashing that. I feel pretty confident the
market corrects that ADP. Yeah, for sure.
And really what you're playing for with him there is you're
just saying Kyler doesn't get healthy this season or if he
does, like they just don't play him and it's that's risky.
Oh, yeah, yeah. Sorry.
That's a great point. I forgot about that, Kyler, it's
it's risky to play into that. But I mean these are giant field
lottery style tournaments like you're gonna have to take some
risk. And I I think what you get from
drafting Dobbs at his ADP is well worth the risk.
You know in that and those outcomes where he's playing the
whole season for you, that's awesome.
Now he does fall into that category of he does have a
slightly higher than you know, definitely a higher than average
chance of not playing the most meaningful weeks.
So I'm probably not wanting a huge exposure to Dobbs in the
Resurrection portfolio, but I definitely think it's a guy
worth taking some shots on. Yeah.
And. Would you?
No. This is a a pair from the point
of sat chasing. But would you ever consider so
caller Murray, he's going at one pick 170.
Would you ever combine those into one team, or do you think
that's just overthinking things? No, I just do one or the other.
I I think you could take some Kyler teams if you think that
he's gonna get right in play. But I guess, I guess there's
really not a ton of value to be had.
And I I was gonna say maybe I wait for like poor news on his
recovery or like signal that the Cardinals might not play in and
try to get him even cheaper. But it doesn't matter at that.
At that cost, you're you're just trying to play the game of like
I hit the parlay of having all of my late round picks be what?
No. What if, Sorry, I'm I'm
suggesting one of the one of the It's sort of.
It's probably sort of dumb. But what if you combine, if you
have color Murray and Josh Dobbs on the same team, right?
Yeah, I was. I was picking up what you were
putting down and I'm just OK, I'm passing on that.
I I. Oh, you're just ignore.
You're deliberately ignoring the question.
No, no, I'm just saying I would not.
Stop. I wouldn't do it.
I I would. If I'm gonna draft one of them,
I'm only drafting one of them. Yeah.
I mean, I guess I could see the rationale in that.
You're saying ohh I'm gonna have Dobbs and then only I guess if
you're doing an only two QB build with Dobbs and Kyler that
would be the only circumstance where I'd consider it.
But then you're eating a zero in the bye week.
It doesn't. It doesn't seem great to me.
I'd rather have that extra dart on a late round player than
allocate 2 spots to the same NFL teams quarterback, if that makes
sense. And the Arizona Cardinals at
that, Yeah. Yeah.
But totally, totally, totally makes sense.
And one thing that I think is interesting as well is that is,
is Jordan Love. He did come in quite a bit and
he he did a feature in an island game where until garbage time
played pretty garbage. Yeah.
So it does seem it does seem like a lot of his early season
stuff was some kind of low sample because I remember week
1. A big chunk of his yards were
like Aaron Jones after the catch.
He had the tree touchdown games, definitely.
Yeah. I'm.
I feel anyway, that the Love stuff now is sort of proven out
to be pretty conclusively that he's he's not better than a
mediocre NFL quarterback and he might be worse.
I I agree with that. And he had, he had some of his
weapons back this week. You know, you didn't get full
Aaron Jones usage. You didn't get full Christian
Watson usage, but you had some snaps from them and this was the
worst offenses looked, you know, out of all the weeks.
So yeah, not, not super bullish on Love going forward, but
definitely 8. In resurrection, that seems way
huge. And see, that's just the market
anchors a guy to, you know, their prior from, you know, week
two, week 3. And they're like, Oh my gosh,
he's crushing. Look how good he's doing.
I I think a big part of it is people are just like sorting by
total fantasy points on the season and looking at guys,
they're like, Oh my gosh, Jordan Love is QB 7 or whatever.
And they're like, well, I'm gonna draft him early, but like
the rest of the season, Baker Mayfield or Jordan Love who you
like. And.
I think that's actually sort of close and probably probably
slight favorite Jordan Love, but like, so, so, so, like.
I think that even with some rough games, he'll hold on to
his job much easier than Mayfield and they're probably
similar caliber players at this point.
I think. Interesting, I I think it's
Baker going away and I think he is a better passer than Love.
And I think the bench risk for Baker Mayfield is like
substantially lower than we initially had estimated.
He's been playing well for these weeks.
You know, he's not just like stringing it together and like
not getting himself bench. He's playing well and I right
now. Correct, correct.
But we. Do you think he's gonna play?
Do you think we've seen enough? That we can just say that hey
Baker Mayfield is going to have a good season this year.
I I would bet on that outcome more than I'd want to bet on the
outcome of him not having a a good season.
He never he never has really had a great opportunity or great
situation to thrive his whole career.
He's never had really is his first competent offensive
coordinator with Sean McVeigh and he, you know, learned the
playbook on the flight over, you know, like that.
That was it. He's never had the same
offensive coordinator for more than a season.
He was in the Hugh Jackson, you know, awful situation.
Like I just, I think that he's been a victim of circumstance
more than anything. And I don't think he's some
world beater. But like if you told me Baker
Mayfield is about the same level of quarterback in the NFL as
Jared Goff is by the end of this season, I wouldn't be super
surprised by that. Yeah but and so just to play
devil's I've got a little bit here and I I wouldn't have
considered them and but who's the quarterback You just said
Jared Goff. Jared Goff and I I wouldn't be
surprised if. Actually, I wouldn't classify
that as a particularly high buyer.
No, no. But I'm just saying, like for
hey, fantasy relevant, this is a quarterback that we should be
drafting. I mean, what did you say Baker's
resurrection ADP is? And it's probably super late.
So Baker is 166. Yeah.
So like, how are we taking Kyler Murray at the same spot as Baker
Mayfield? And we're taking Jordan Love
like 5 rounds ahead of Baker Mayfield.
That doesn't make any sense. Ohh.
Yeah, yeah. That in.
Resurrection I'm I think. I think they're super close.
I think Love and and Mayfield are really close.
My my argument isn't that like it isn't necessary that I know
that Mayfield will will play bad.
Just like I think that like if he's pretty even even if he's
close to like an average player and and and I think he's
probably slightly below average. You do have these in season
variances where like they can have a stretch of of of bad
games and and and I I I guess I would be a little bit weary that
Mayfield can wetter data that stretch.
Without getting, yeah. Without getting benched, yeah,
I'm just, I'm looking at his PFF numbers for this week.
I mean I know he had a a good week this week, but you know 78%
completion percentage, 86.2 accuracy percent.
Like he's he's putting the ball where it needs to be and he's
he's letting his good receivers you know make plays.
He he's targeting Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and that's all we
really want. Also, the reason I like it a lot
for fantasy to to talk less from like a overall NFL perspective,
yeah, is that offense is so concentrated, right?
It's like you know who the guys are that it's going to be Mike
Evans or Chris Godwin. And like you can probably throw
a dart on K dot and to get some targets and maybe a random
touchdown in the week that you need it.
But, like, it's Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and that's like,
all you really want to draft out of this offense, So.
Yeah, yeah, that that that makes sense for sure.
And I think that the bet of Baker Mayfield's being good
enough that he can sustain fantasy players.
It is so clearly proven out and especially with the
concentration that you talked about how cheap they are or or
where and I I I think that makes a lot of sense.
But moving on from Baker because this is not the the Baker
Mayfield podcast. This is stat chasing someone who
is who is better than Baker Mayfield.
I mean we can just call it he's Andrew Luck now basically is CJ
Stroud. He's he's been awesome.
He's been very very good. He's elevating the receivers
around him like, and to be fair to Nico Collins, he's never
really had competent quarterback play for his entire career.
But with CJ Stroud now and Nico Collins is delivering legitimate
Spike weeks like weak, winning performances.
So that's really exciting. What are your thoughts on?
Like, where does Stroud fall rest of season as a fantasy
quarterback? I think that he's now basically
a strong pocket passer. With and and he does he's not a
zero in the in the rushing game but he doesn't add a lot and but
he's a pretty strong pocket passer and so with that you you
will definitely get games like we've had where extremely
efficient extremely productive and then his receiver score
points and and that definitely and but I I think we've said
this. We've been saying this a while
or or ever since that we started at the podcast this season.
Texans players are are strong targets and I do I do note that
the market has reacted pretty strongly to that and Nico
Collins now an ADP of 58, Tank Dale 71 and CJ Stroud 106 and
can that can definitely see room for them to.
To beat that still and but I think now you're you're getting
into the territory now of like having to ask yourself is CJ
Straud just in in his rookie year?
Is he just a very good pocket passer or do we think CJ Stroud
is like is there the potential that he could on the trajectory
to be like basically one of the best quarterbacks of all time,
Right. Yeah, but.
It's like if you're asking him to, if you're asking him to
sustain this like you said that, that basically means that he's
he's he, he's like one of the best quarterbacks ever.
And and and and that's almost That's.
You're almost needing that with Nico Collins at pick 58, I
think. Yeah, I mean, if he sustains
this, he's 1200, a little over 1200 yards through four games.
So you're you're talking just about 5000 yards as a rookie.
He's got 6 touchdowns so far, so you're talking probably 25 plus
touchdowns, 0 interceptions and you know, adding a couple 100
rushing yards, like that's that is the greatest rookie
quarterback season of all time, basically.
So that would be most quarterbacks best ever season,
right? Right.
I so the way that I want to play this given given those Adp's you
laid out for me here is I I probably don't want to come in
super overweight on them and that just might be maybe I'm too
anchored to the values that they were going at.
But it's I I just don't I don't feel super confident that he can
continue on this trajectory and I mean if he does it's it's an
all time you know all time kind of season.
So I hate to I hate to be out on him.
It's such an exciting story. I I like the player.
I it's very fun but I'm just worried that the market might be
getting a little overconfident that he keeps up this
trajectory. So it definitely will be an
interesting player to watch for this season.
He's he's one of my favorite storylines for sure.
And I know in in some in some of this sort of advanced metrics.
As a college player he was basically always a 99100% tall
pastor all true college and and that's what the benefit of the
great Ohio State receivers and and and and all the other
players and but the reason I mentioned that is obviously not
every like elite college player becomes an an all time NFL
player and but. It's not like I I guess I'm
saying that because it wouldn't be out of the blue for him to be
basically Alzheimer and but I think if you're if you're sort
of like where is your median expectation, it is for him to be
a a good NFL pocket pass or QB. If not like like 5000 and yards
and 32 sounds good. Especially not with the way the
Texans are set up, like they don't have an offensive line and
like I think the the weaponry there is still, it's still a bit
questionable like the obviously it played very well to start,
but I mean I'm not like considering Nico Collins is one
of the best for receivers in the NFL or or would you disagree
there? No, I I agree with you.
Nico is not one of the best receivers in the NFL.
He's making a case that he's he's gonna be.
You know, if he's able to keep up the kind of production he's
had, he's definitely gonna be going in the first three rounds
next season, right? But I don't.
I mean if if he's able to maintain this, he is one of the
best. More or less, yeah.
But so let let's just to kind of get a comparison for CJ Stroud
and what you expect from him rest of season and maybe what
his his mean outcome looks like? CJ Stroud or Trevor Lawrence?
Who do you want rest of season as your fantasy quarterback?
Trevor Lawrence. OK.
And just because we we have a, we just have a little bit more
sample size on on on on Trevor Lawrence with his Goodyear last
year and obviously a little disappointing to start the year
and but I think I would in Trevor Lawrence still.
CJ Stroud or Deshaun Watson? Oh, CJ Stroud all day.
OK, yeah, same. Were there any other
quarterbacks? I feel like we didn't talk about
a ton here, but the only other one that was a major mover is
Justin Fields. And I feel like that's a little
bit of an outlier because it was against the Broncos.
And yeah, the Broncos defense. Looks like the spot to target
this season. You know, I I'm certainly gonna
be trying to target Broncos defense for as long as until
they prove otherwise. The Broncos defense is who I
want my players playing against and so I'm not sure if this was
just a a product of facing the Broncos or if this was just in
fields. Just getting more comfortable
doing playing his game, not. Not trying to do what the
coaching staff was asking of him where he he complained for the
first couple weeks that he's having to do too much.
He's he's very clearly slow getting through his reads.
So maybe it's just more of he just needs to be a point and
shoot kind of quarterback. Just I'm I'm gonna look for my
one guy. He's not there.
I'm just gonna realize the the play plays cannot be something
where he's got to work through like 2-3, four progressions like
it's not gonna work for his processing speed.
So I don't know if that's noise from this week or if it's gonna
be that they figured they've more or less had a get right
spot here and they kind of know now what's gonna be a little
more effective for him going forward.
What do you think about that? I think that it's definitely
like when you have an opponent that has just been like leaking
points like the Broncos and him having a good day.
If it doesn't feel like enough evidence given how much he
struggled before that that he's now going to be that could have
a passer and and and get scored that much many points going
forward. I yeah.
I think the main path to Justin Fields fantasy production is him
rushing more often than he has been and and I think, yeah
that's probably still likely to happen and so I'm definitely I'm
definitely interested in in Fields at a discount.
Let me let me look up on his His ADP.
And his ADP in resurrection is now 87 and that's the fields.
Fields versus Stroud would be like a legitimate decision.
In fact, you'd you'd have to be like consciously taking fields
over Stroud. If you're just going on ADP
right now these like 2 rounds ahead of Stroud and and I think
the the only risk I think and is is that like when they've been
asked hey are you commit are you committed now to Fields as
you're as you started going forward they it it does seem
like they've been a little bit hesitant to say that but I think
with with the potential for for the massive rushing upside that
you get from Fields that does put them ahead of Stroud and
Stroud is probably is definitely or or seems quite likely to be a
better player and but the the rushing production that you can
get from Fields it's just rushing as a quarterback it's
just get so many more points than than yeah unless you're
Peyton Manning as a pastor it just it's so it's so hard for
the pocket pastors to outproduce in fantasy the the the Russian
guys. Yeah, absolutely.
One other guy that I wanted to note before we move on from
quarterbacks, the Derek Carr injury.
And we'll we'll see the trickle down effects of this in the next
couple charts. But the Derek Carr injury looked
like it really hampered his ability.
To actually deliver the ball downfield accurately, I know
Olave had just a gang at air yards.
He's like 154 air yards this week, but just couldn't,
couldn't connect, couldn't, couldn't put it on him
accurately. He had some intermediate.
I watched the game, he had some intermediate passes where he was
able to find, you know, Michael Thomas and the intermediate and
had some Rasheed, Shaheed stuff that worked out.
But a lot of it was just the little dink and dunk underneath
stuff. I'm concerned this continues for
a couple weeks just if it's a A/C joint sprain.
I believe that's what it was. Is that correct?
Yeah, that sounds right. But if that's what it is, I
think that's gonna be a couple week kind of injury and so I
would be a little hesitant. In investing specifically in the
receiver, I mean really just any, any receiving option on the
Saints that's operating beyond the very, very short areas of
the field for the next few weeks, especially as like a
ceiling play you you might be able to get some moderate
production from you know Michael Thomas and Alvin Kumar and stuff
like that. But I'm, I'm less excited about
Olave for the next couple weeks and so I think it's an A/C joint
sprain and we're just entering week 5 this week and then the
following week will be week 6, the first week of resurrection
and then week 7 and and so and so forth.
So I mean maybe I'm leading the witness here but I I think that
there's enough of the chance that he's that car is arrested
or recovered from this injury, this shoulder injury to to maybe
make the overall seasonal impact on a lava pretty minimal or or
would you just would you disagree?
In the In the context of resurrection, I think the way
that I would be playing it, I haven't.
Who do the Saints play this week?
Do you have that off the top of your head?
I do not know that at the top of my head and but it's the week
after this that it's the the booking, no booking years, who
or who they played already and it's the patrons.
Okay. So what I think I want to do for
car is I want to draft No Car right now for this week.
I want to wait until they play the Patriots.
He is not able to push the ball downfield again.
He puts up a lackluster fantasy performance and then I want to
load up as much. Saints as I'm trying to have in
My Portfolio, if I'm trying to be even with the field, I'm
trying to get even with the field if I'm trying to be over
and getting over. But I'm doing that after this
next week because I I'm willing to make the bet that it's a game
that the market overreacts to and you get those two data
points strung together back-to-back of bad, bad passing
game for Derek Carr and bad game for Chris Olave.
You you get some maybe maybe fourth round.
Chris Olave. That sounds pretty pretty
enticing to me. So I I think that's the way that
I'm playing car for Resurrection, that that makes
sense for sure. That makes sense for sure.
And then obviously, yeah, probably wouldn't be starting a
car in like sort of seasonal and stuff anyway.
And well, are are you benching at Olave this week?
I I really hate benching my I had A at a team where I had the
decision believe my options were it was a J.
Brown Christian Kirk Keenan Allen Garrett Wilson.
Last week I could only start three of them and I ended up
benching Garrett Wilson. And I hate.
I just absolutely hate doing stuff like that.
I just want to usually I don't even care that the quarterback
situation is bad or the matchup is bad or whatever.
I just. I want to play my studs and but
I benched Garrett Wilson and going into that game against the
Chiefs, I was feeling pretty good about it.
You know, Christian Kirk got a ton of targets.
Keenan Allen, like I was never benching Keenan after what he's
done. And with Eckler still out, even
though it was a little bit of a down week for him, he kind of
saved it with the touchdown. Of course, A.J.
Brown has that explosion game, so I'm feeling like the smartest
man in the world. And then Zach Wilson comes out.
He's a competent quarterback. He's.
I I think all the all that chewing out he got on the
sidelines from Garrett Wilson in the last week, he's like, dude,
you need to get me the ball. I believe that had a lasting
effect on the young man because he was he was very focused on
getting the ball to Garrett Wilson.
So a little little encouraging going forward there.
But as far as benching A lave, that's that's a real roundabout
way to get back to this. But as far as benching A lave, I
probably don't do it unless I have.
That type of really, really good option, a great alternative over
Olave like I described there, where like I could comfortably
play Christian, curb over him and feel good about that.
Have those other better receivers my wide receiver
wanted to. That makes sense for sure.
So we're hoping that their car
is not. We expect that their car will
still be not 100% healthy against Patriots and but still
still interested beyond that and and and hope to create that
exposure after a dip and following a week 5.
Absolutely. So think, think, that's a a good
jumping off point to move to our running back chart which is
snaps and usage. And so this is rushing attempts,
routes, pass blocking and run blocking all expressed as a
percentage of the team's overall plays.
And so Kyron Williams, you can see that he is on the field
roughly speaking 80% of the time for the Rams and he is either
getting a rush attempt or running a route just over 65% of
plays which is the most of any eligible player.
And I think no, no, it it's just the it's the highest of any
running back this year. And then I guess the reason that
we use routes is is because and and this was kind of a point
Gretch made to me and Sam last year was that a lot of the time
unless there are special special receiver so just CMC, a lot of
running back targets is almost by accident.
It's because the where the play was supposed to go and didn't
work out and and then there's a running back a check down.
And so the way that players can accumulate a lot of points,
running backs can accumulate a lot of points from the being the
beneficiary of those check downs is just being out in a route, in
a route very often and and then and so that that's why we look
at that and then we look at pass blocking because obviously it's
not fantasy productive but it is useful to know that the team
trusts them to to pass block when they're not running routes.
Excellent explanation of the chart and what it shows here.
And you know who was out and about on a lot of routes this
week was Alvin Kamara He. Yeah, 13 targets, pretty absurd
number. Definitely reminded me of the
Naji Harris with Ben Roethlisberger's nude alarm kind
of days and it's it kind of played out because of the same
thing Derek Carr couldn't push the ball down field and like you
said hey we we don't have a guy down the field that we're able
to go to here. So what are we going to do?
We're going to dump it off to the running back and.
So Kamara's first game back immediately looks like he's in a
very desirable role for fantasy. He wasn't terribly efficient,
which we'll see on on our next charts.
He he didn't make a ton out of all the opportunity that he got,
but just getting that much opportunity is valuable and so
definitely looks like a an interesting player going
forward. A lot of the players on this
chart, it's kind of, you know. Business as usual, so to speak.
No major changes, but the ones that I did want to point out
that I felt like were worth mentioning for situational
changes. We did see Alexander Madison
start to lose a little bit of opportunity to Cam makers, and
Cam makers looked at least halfway decent.
So. Concerning for Madison going
forward, he did put together a better game than his really poor
performances in the first couple weeks of the season.
But that's just something to have on your radar.
Maybe in a season long league if your league mates aren't super
plugged in and you can trade Madison purely off the volume
and he had a couple better games back-to-back.
You might be able to package him with another player and go get
someone whose role might be a little sticky or over the course
of the season. I'm worried about him losing
opportunity to Acres as the season goes on.
The other one that I wanted to point out, Zach Moss is
interesting because of the context of Jonathan Taylor
coming back. So if you just.
If you transplant the Jonathan Taylor talent into the role that
Zack Moss is getting, which I don't think there's any reason
to, you know, if they're using Zack Moss like this, there's no
reason where if Jonathan Taylor's active and fully
healthy, he's not getting at least this usage as well.
And if he's getting this usage, he's, you know, in the top five
backs as far as the opportunities he's getting in
the league. And I would certainly say that
JT. Is going to be more efficient
than Saikwan, going to be more efficient than Kamara and going
to be more efficient than Kyron. So you're looking at a guy that
is his real only competition to be a better fantasy back would
be Christian McCaffrey then. So that's certainly a very
interesting situation to monitor.
Drico did you have any guys on this chart that stood out to you
this week And so just to just to I guess put in some color for
the the Zach Moss comment. And so obviously with Anthony
Richardson at quarterback there is not a lot of receiving roll
or or or expected points to go around for running backs And and
so within an offense like the cult, the cults, the the the
back the the for a running back to actually have a good role
they really need to sort of like condense they they need to
basically have a stranglehold on it.
And it's sort of like well if if Zack Moss can get a stranglehold
on this role then and and and Dion what's his name Dion
Jackson was able to do that in week one then John and Taylor
should absolutely be able to do that And so I agree with you
where and JT if JT is playing and full year and no worries
about the the trade and the contract and stuff like that
easily a first round value and probably yeah don't don't I'm
not sure exactly what spot in the first round I would take him
and I haven't gone through a player by player but easily
first round value there and wouldn't wouldn't because or
because we're expecting it to be so condensed would not worry so
much about how do I say it about the the the lack of targets for
Zach Moss and and and and for running backs generally in in
mobile quarterback and offenses just because of that just
because of how condensed it has been and and and how good JT has
been. Yeah, well, well said.
Good, good context there for the those routes.
You know, you're not going to convert those two fantasy points
in the same way that someone like even a Kyron Williams will,
just because there he's going to get more of those actually
converted into targets. The other other players here on
this that I wanted to point out? Miles Sanders.
Part of why his opportunity went down a little bit was he's he's
dealing with that groin injury. So you did see more Chuba
Hubbard this week. I'm not, I'm not certain that
the backfield is something that you even really want part of for
this offense. Gretch.
Gretch talked about this this offseason where he was saying
there's going to be more of these these haves and have nots
in the NFL where there's going to be.
Teams where there's just a lot of fantasy goodness to go around
because they're good offenses, they're producing a lot, and
there's gonna be teams where you just don't really want a part of
it. And I think the Panthers are
really shaping up to be a team that I don't want a part of.
You know, I'm I'm happy with the Chuba that I got at the price
that I got in because it's like I won't take a zero at running
back some weeks because I'm gonna get like 6 to 8 points
from Chuba. But not.
I think the upside scenarios for pretty much all of those players
on the Panthers look very bleak. I think we've probably already
seen Adam Thielen's highest scoring game for the season,
right? I just, yeah.
Well, is it? He scored like 30 points or
something like that. Yeah, I I don't, I don't think
there's that's not an offense I really want to be going after.
And so I just wanted to point out the the Miles Sanders little
little decrease in roll there just for this week.
Yeah. Yeah.
No, that makes sense. And one thing that I struck me
as interesting was that Kenneth Walker here who is on the field
a little over 60% of the time and obviously very, very strong
side of the year and you're happy with the discount that you
got because of that Charbonne and and it's so I think it's
sort of interesting that. Kenneth Walker hasn't quite held
Charminet off and that Charminet is building up something.
It's definitely feels like a 60406535 role in in Seattle.
But what has what has been quite beneficial for Walker is that
he's gotten a pretty good goal end role and and and that's been
very helpful in in in his scoring points.
And but I I do think it's like I I took a I took a decent amount
of Walker and I I was happy Yeah I've been happy with the start
of the year and but it feel it feels a little bit like and he
really does have to hold on to that strong goal line role to
continue to to to put up these points.
I see that he's going out on a DP of 20.
So the the discount on that kind of Walker is gone and and I I I
really like kind of Walker the player.
I've never I I've not really been concerned with the success
rate stuff just because when he breaks a run it it's it lifts
the offense so much and so never really been concerned with that
sort of stuff but and then the I I guess just thinking through
this as well and. The fact that he has actually
been scoring touchdowns with his touchdown role, is it indication
that he should keep it? And so maybe, yeah, maybe
looking at that ADP of 20, maybe that's just sort of like
efficient for tenant Walker now where where is Charbonnay going
right now? Charbonnay is going up, pick
113. I would be loading the bags with
Charbonnay. Not that I think that you know
he he's going to unseat Kenneth Walker for all of the
opportunity. But he's been getting on the
field more. He's shown he's a really
physical runner. You know that that's that's what
got Pete Carroll to put Chris Carson on the field so much,
right. He's just like.
He wants a guy who's happy to run his face into a grown man
and and that Zach Sharpaday looks like he's very adept at
that. So the contingent value seems
incredible for Charbonnay and I I think that you also as the
season progresses, even with Kenneth Walker healthy, you've
got a lot of of paths where his standalone value increases Also
just as being the the passing game back, you know it's being
maybe being able to siphon always some of those goal line
touches. So Charbonnay to me feels like
the kind of player who's a DP should have increased and right.
And it's just kind of sat where it did all summer.
So that's a spot I'd attack aggressively if I were drafting
in Resurrection. Another one that I I'm not sure
where his Adp's at, but where I would be very interested in
attacking aggressively is Isaiah Pacheco.
Where where is he sitting right now?
And give me one second and Pacheco is now going 75.
Ohh so man I'm I'm smashing that I I'm pretty much hitting it all
the way until like 50 I think would be efficient because what
you're looking at is you're looking at a back who's starting
to he's never he's never gonna consolidate all the work in that
office. They're gonna they're gonna use
McKinnon still they'll sprinkle in a little CEH you know just to
to take some you know wear off of them.
But he's looking like he's doing what they want out of the
running back in their system. He's he's being utilized in the
passing game as well and that's just an offense where we can
expect them to score lots of fantasy points And so I I want
that back. I I would be aggressively
drafting Pacheco. I I would if I can get him you
know at if it's pick 70 and he's on the.
I mean, shoot, even like if it's pick 60 and he's on the board,
I'm probably just taking him 100% of drafts.
Like I would be that aggressive with it and you're gonna have
he's to me, he kind of feels like diet Kenneth Walker in the
Russian game but with with passing game upside, right and
on a better offense, so. Yeah.
Am I way off base here with Pacheco?
So like you said he he is running routes and.
And he does he does have the potential for the the Mahomes
magic where he's dancing around somehow they don't cover Pacheco
and then he runs for billionaires.
He definitely has could definitely be the beneficiary of
those plays. I don't see any real reason why
not and and his his running, his rushing usage has definitely
been trending up and I saw, I just see here that he.
And obviously at 115 rushing yards and that was Sunday night
and expected rushing yards of 84 so definitely got usage there
and so definitely feels like the I I feel like this this chart
sort of has them like appropriately placed where he's
definitely the. He's got the plural plurality I
got. You thank you of touches and in
in the KC offense and but not not quite the the clear cut
starter and and then I guess if he if he is able to get this
sort of like goal line role which.
He he's definitely he's definitely been favored on the
goal line most recently his is it's well no not quite he he was
favored on the goal line last week and then it's been it was
sort of split between aside Pacheco and and Glide Edward
Solaire. So I I don't know that this this
one feels like it's much more of a hot hand backfield.
Casey feels like much more of a hot hand backfield.
Where and it could be different guys in different weeks to me
anyway I agree with that I just think he's gonna be the hot hand
more often than the other guys to enough that it's it's pretty
pretty desirable. If you look at he's he's running
you know at least 15 routes every game you know he's he's
had four receptions one reception 2 receptions 3
receptions. So he's he's consistently
involved in the passing game. He's elusive.
His his elusive rating has been fantastic the last two weeks and
his attempts have climbed every week.
He 8 attempts week 112 week 215 week 320 in week 4I.
He's avoiding tackles at a high rate 28 avoided tackles Week 35
avoided tackles week 4. To me, it's just this is what
This is why people were excited to draft him last season and we
started to see it come on down the stretch.
And I think the lower usage in the first couple weeks might
have been a factor of him not being fully healthy.
You know, he had those injuries he was dealing with through camp
and coming into the season. I think we might see him.
I agree with you, it's it's going to be a high hand
situation. There will be weeks where
Mckinnon's the guy. I don't think there's going to
be many weeks where Ch is the guy.
Ch might be annoying and Rob, you have a touchdown here or
there, but I think it's it's going to be, if I had to put my
chips on one back in this backfield, it's going to be
Pacheco. And I feel like that price is
not, you're not capturing the upside correctly with that
price. You know the good outcomes.
For him, are very Casey or a kingmaker running back every
year, like or not, every year, almost every year there's a KC
running back that scores 30 points a game in in the most
crucial weeks and. If it is Pacheco then 74 is is.
It's not nearly high enough for that outcome so I I I definitely
get what you're saying. My my hesitancy has always been
like to pay for the expense of KC back, especially when I I'm
not like in love with their talent but totally agree there
are are are definitely outcomes where he is scoring a shit on a
points every week. And 74 is is just a smash price
from. So where does where does James
Cook go relative to Pacheco? Because that's one that I
think's worth comparing. Yeah, no that that is a good,
good comparison. One second, and because Cook
also has that annoying aspect of the backfield where it's not
just the backs for him, it's also his quarterback.
We'll steal some goal line stuff and then you have Latavius
Murray inexplicably taking a bunch of routes this week and
you know you have Damien Harris who will work in on the goal
line and he he's also taking routes, so.
So James Cook is going two rounds ahead of of Pacheco at
pick 51. Seems like an incredible
arbitrage opportunity to me. I would both both great offenses
both you know backfields where you're going to have some
frustration you know in some weeks where your guy you know
you're your Pacheco, your James Cook gets some work vulture or
doesn't get everything you think you should.
But I right, I'd be aggressively hitting Pacheco until the market
corrects on that. Yeah, that makes sense.
That makes sense. I mean, I'm not.
I'm not loving and James Cook could pick 450 there or like the
start of the fifth round and. So it's it's very definitely
very difficult for me to argue that he's a better pick than
than Pacheco 2 rounds ahead of them and but to me that that's
that's almost like and James Cook is is just too expensive
gotcha any anyone else on this chart or should we move to the
backups here. Yeah, let's, let's, I think we
should move on to the backups here.
So same chart except this time we're at the 25 to 40% at Reds
plus rush attempts. So like sort of like your your
your backups but still playing as like as not substantial but
meaningful amount of stamps. Yeah the the Broncos backfield
going to be frustrating with the the Javante Williams injury
you're you're just going to end up you're going to get Julian
McLaughlin opportunities and the Javante injury didn't sound
overly serious. He's going to miss a ton of time
but I bet you the team's real careful with them coming back
right. You've already got the knee that
you're going to be concerned about.
You just you don't want any compensation injuries.
You want to, you want to protect your player.
So I would anticipate that this backfield just becomes a three
headed monster. Really unfun for fantasy.
You know, I'm there, there could be production.
But right now it's just, I mean, Jalil McLaughlin produced great
this last week, but I just, I worry that when it's it's all
three of them, is there really going to be enough pie to go
around between all three? So that was the first thing that
stood out to me on this chart. I know we don't have Julia
McLaughlin here yet. She just doesn't.
He didn't get enough snaps to crack the chart.
So expected points combined for all running backs for Denver
this week was 20. And if you're splitting 20
expected points tree ways, that's it.
That's pretty tough. Yeah.
I'm. I'm not excited about that.
So that's that's a a warning sign for that backfield.
If you're in season long and you can somehow move Javante or P
Ryan for anything or or even probably the savviest move is
you get Jaleel McLaughlin off waivers he pops for a week and
you try and package him and ship him off or something.
Who who knows. I I don't think I'm I'm a little
concerned though for that backfield going forward.
Yeah, Breece. Breece Hall, moving up the
chart, making his way on up. Led the backfield.
In touch this week with six with six.
Was it? Is it 6 or 6 carries?
Let's let me pull him up here. 6 rush attempts. 6 rush attempts.
You got it. Yeah.
And Speaking of not great backfield, so just 18 combined
expected points for The Jets and this week 5 for Carter, 7 for
Breese Hall, 5 1/2 for Red Dalvin Cook.
And so it's sort of I don't think this changes anything
meaningful amount in that like. You need you need resolve to to
consolidate the the work around him.
You need him to meaningfully improve the offense through his
abilities and but it's it's definitely it's definitely not
happening on the trajectory. That was our most optimistic
timeline. I I am very excited about his
matchup with the Broncos this week, though, because that
defense seems very desirable to target, and his snapshot, I
believe, was the highest it's been all season this week as
well, so The Jets are clearly working him back into the role
that they eventually want him to have.
If you're The Jets, your division is looking very scary,
right? You've got the Bills who just
took it to the Dolphins who just who had previously dropped 70 on
the Broncos. So you're you're looking at
those two teams in your division.
You're thinking gosh, we got to really make some headway if
we're going to have a chance at the playoffs.
And so I I would, I feel like if the chips are down and they need
to win the game they probably want to put the ball in Breece
Hall's hands more and I think the Broncos are really
interesting spot. I haven't looked at what his
price is for on DraftKings this week, but this is one of those
spots where I'm happy to play it.
Before I see it, I would would just want to, you know, hope the
market is not ready to bet on Breeze Hall yet.
They're scared from the lack of opportunity and who knows, maybe
there's some, you know, some weird universal juju going on.
He did tear his his ACL against the Broncos last season but he
was on the way to having a massive day when he did tear
that ACL. So maybe maybe this upcoming
week he he sets everything right in the world has an explosive
game. I'm.
I'm excited for that. My other my other pet player
that I've been very vocal about this season.
Justice Hill. Never a great look to lose work
to Melvin Gordon. It's pretty pretty bad sign.
The only optimistic thing you can tell yourself about Justice
Hill is the competition is still poor.
It's it's still Gus Edwards and Melvin Gordon and maybe he just
wasn't 100% yet coming off the turf toe.
If it was actually turf toe, which I don't think they
explicitly said it was turf toe, just said it was a toe injury.
But if it was turf toe that kind of injury can can linger for a
while. So maybe he just wasn't 100%.
They only gave him 3 carries. But yeah, not not super positive
for him, we we did mention but. He only played 11% of snacks,
just as Hill. Yeah, I mean that.
That's to me the scream that being eased off back in injury.
Yeah, I I certainly hope that's the case.
Can can makers we we did talk about briefly.
I could see his role increasing with the Vikings but that's as
far as oh the other, the other guy on this backup chart here
that I I feel like his stock declined a little bit this week.
I'm not so nervous for him. But Roshan, I I think that for
Roshan we got really excited seeing early in the season all
that opportunity in the passing game and the Bears have not.
His role has not been increasing week over week, rather it's been
shrinking. Khalil Herbert got a lot of
opportunity this week and so I think Rochon is going to be the
kind of, you know your your classic rookie running back who
we're going to have to wait a little longer in the season for
his role to expand. But I I know the excitement for
Rochon was there early, but I. We were excited about him, yeah.
Oh, absolutely. I I was definitely, definitely
thought he could be really interesting.
But I think it's one of those or it's going to be more of a wait
and see rather than a get production right away from him
kind of deal. Right.
And so and Devon, the other thing that we should mention, so
the John Chan obviously moving up this chart, if we were to
look at just his just week four, he was on the field 66% of snaps
and. 50% of the Dolphins plays where passes where a Chan was
running a route so don't know what that not quite sure what
that is in terms of like his route participation rate but
super high and does feel like that there's a decent chance
that he he's there clear passing down back going forward which
like oh baby like that that's that that would be pretty nice
yeah he he's looking like of all the rookie running backs he's
the largest win rookie running back that you could have drafted
so he he had a 60. 8% route share last week.
Yeah, he he looks like a smash through and through that.
He's one of the player. He's one of those players.
What's his resurrection ADP at? And probably not.
Well, I I should look at it before I I make their comments
and. Probably not high his
resurrection. ADP is 40 Ohh OK, I was gonna
say 40 would be like if he's not 40, I'm hammering it but right
it does. It does seem the the market did
a good enough job. I guess that's what happens when
you drop A4 Touchdown game, right?
And and super high, highly visible performance and like
something that's gonna be. Under a microscope.
So it makes sense that the market will be about right
there. Yeah, the market market got that
pretty close to right. I I think we're good to move on
to the next chart. Yeah, we had, we lingered quite
a while on some early ones here. And yeah, I I I think we can we
can sort of breeze through the expected points chart as well
because we hit on so many of the points we don't wanted to make.
And so yeah, that's my job to explain these charts.
I forgot about that. So this is the the running back
expected points and efficiency chart.
And on the horizontal axis we've got rushing expected points and
on the vertical axis we've got receiving expected points.
And then these sort of dotted red lines, they kind of like
mark the the areas of like total expected points.
So you can see here on the very right anywhere in here.
And they had more than 20 expected points and then 15 to
20. So just for example there, David
Montgomery had 16 expected rushing points per game, or say
expected points from rushing per game and then two or just under
2 from receiving. And so he's around 18, and
that's why he lands in this 15 to 20 chart.
And then we have 10 to 15, we have 6 to 10 and and then
finally zero to five. Yeah, a couple couple guys I
wanted to point out here, we did see Keyshawn Vaughn seem like
he's emerging as the number two in Tampa Bay.
So all of my Sean Tucker big board shares are officially
dead. That is a good amount of money I
have lit on fire. I'm not super interested in the
Tampa Bay running game though. Rashad White hasn't been very
efficient. It I mean if they go cheap
enough, if White goes cheap enough in resurrection, it's
like an innings eater kind of player.
You know it's like a a better version of Chuba Hubbard.
You know you'll get you're not going to take a zero cuz you
have Rashad White in there getting you know his three yards
a carrier, whatever he does. But I his expected fantasy
points I I would say probably come down.
I I don't think he's gonna be able to maintain that share of
the workload with how inefficient he's being.
I think they probably work quiche on Vaughn in a tiny bit.
It's it's just going to be one of those things where the pie is
not big enough to really want that running back or or want
that backfield unless you're getting it pretty cheap, so.
I think Rachad White is interesting in that his
resurrection at ADP is 82 and it's like.
It's somebody like like we're saying he's in the he's in the
what what you call it 15 expected points per game and and
even I I I don't I definitely don't want to catch a following
knife and I I'm I've never been or or I try really hard to not
be that type of drafter and but I think that it that is
interesting in that like 15 expected points at at an ADP of
80. Yeah that that that's something
where I I find that quite challenging to to value but you
so you said he's, he's ATP 82, Pacheco was 75, is that right?
Yep. And so that's me that Pacheco
has more expected points. No, they're they're right.
They're right on each other. But for me it's.
Ohh, yeah, you're right there. Yeah that's that's ships in the
night right there that is you know I I see Pacheco moving on
up and I see Rashad White as as moving on down.
So I'm and Pacheco over white every day that I would if it
means that I have to have 0% Rashad White to have more
Pacheco right? I am sleeping like a baby with
my 0% Rashad white right. Yeah I I I I definitely I get
what you're saying for sure and and it's like do I want white
more than free check Oh no I don't it I'm and and it's
interesting seeing Pacheco here with in the in the 15 expected
points. Category 2 which is sort of like
eye opening for me and and if I guess this definitely speaks to
what you were saying where if he's fighting for the Chiefs if
he's getting these expected points and and he's going to be
pick 75. I I I think I'm going to
capitulate and and say you were definitely right on that one.
I I'm glad you came around on Pacheco.
Another guy right in. I swear I'm not just picking
guys dead in the middle of the chart but it's a guy I wanted to
talk about. It's Joe Mixon.
That one. What what's his resurrection?
ADP. Because if it's not like it, it
should also be like I'd take Pacheco over Joe Mixon.
You know every day and twice on Sundays he he probably.
Joe Mixon and Rashad White are the same thing.
They're just they're they're volume in a bad offense.
Right and and like. Mixon has 50 tree.
So yeah, all be 0% mix and then literally 0% never touch it,
they're. They might even they might be
the same age though that's mixing in white.
I'm joking. I I think where Chad White.
Was like an old he was, he was an older prospect.
But yeah, like I'll have 0% mix in there that that's just not
stuff for me. Yeah, yeah.
No, that that, that makes sense for sure.
I think that that definitely seems like a a bad a bad pick
for sure. Any anyone else on this chart
you wanted to hit on or or should we move to the next one?
And no, I, I, I, I think we can move on from this one here and
so and just another call that and this one looks a little
weirder because it has chimera on it and.
And just we we get this comment quite often where hey so and so
Claire isn't on the chart, we have to split the chart, open
the 2, otherwise it gets too clustered.
And the way that we most efficiently decluster it is we
put the even guys on one chart and then the guys with odd
points and odd amount of points on the other.
So that way we kind of separate things out and make this easier
to read. And as far as making it harder
to read, I I've decided to just scale the chart to the the
highest amount of expected fantasy points for both the
rushing and receiving axes here. And Alvin Camaro with his 13
targets this week, had quite a bit of expected receiving
points. You can see him up there above
20. He wasn't terribly efficient
with it, which is why his little circle is so small.
The larger the circle, the more efficient the player is with
their opportunities. And so you're seeing Kamara's
getting this elite role. His expected points are very
high. We saw on the usage charts he's,
you know, among the top backs of the league as far as his role,
but he's not terribly efficient. So the way that I'm digesting
this is there's probably a decent chunk of the outcomes
where Kamara is just a pretty good pick to have this year
where he, you know, the role that you got for the cost you
paid is a you know, could could very well be a steal.
I don't know where he's going in resurrection.
I would assume that resurrection moved his ADP up pretty
substantially, since, you know, knowing that he's not going to
be suspended was assuming right and to the price.
I'd be interested. So, yeah, 47.
Right around Rahim Mostard, Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon.
OK, I I definitely take him over Mixon.
I Him and Aaron Jones are both interesting to me.
That feels about right, to have those two players near each
other. Games cook in that range too.
Yeah, I I'm probably leaning cook there because again the
whole ships in the night thing, not to overuse it, but I feel
like if anything Kamara the Kumar's role can only really
decrease from here and it's not like we don't have any reason to
think that it could decrease. He he was bad last year.
He lost work to David Johnson and Mark Ingram.
Like those players are not taking NFL snaps this year for a
reason, right? He was not good last year in
this first game. He wasn't super efficient.
I I I guess what I'm saying is there's a a good chunk of
outcomes where he just does enough to hold on to the role
and the roles really good and he's he's just good because he's
the guy getting the role. Kind of like Kyron Williams,
right? Like Kyron's not anything
particularly special. He's getting a crazy role,
right. And so I think that's what
you're looking at. For Kamara, when it's a win,
that's what you get. He just gets the role when it's
a loss. When Kamara starts losing some
of this work, you've got a very intriguing opportunity here
because someone's got to take the carries.
Now you know prior to him coming back, Jamal Williams didn't do
too much with it. You know, Tony Jones, junior
didn't do a ton with it and Kendry didn't do a ton with his
opportunity. But I've I've got to think that
what we saw in the first few weeks, there's no way that the
rushing game for this offense is that poor.
So I feel like this is an opportunity where if people are
going to you know, I'm I'm never gonna be super excited to buy
Jamal Williams. But if Jamal Williams is free in
Resurrection, I might might take a crack there.
I I'm still probably gonna just lose money on Kendre though and
just I I would assume that Kendre is mostly free as well
and that's probably the way that I'd wanna still play this
offense. But yeah, I felt like it was.
Andrea is pick 180. I just need to not draft
Resurrection because I'm gonna lose so much money on Kendra
Miller. I think with the Camaro stuff,
it's it's actually, it's a lot more intuitive than it looks or
it it this is like one of those stupid situations and half of
Camaro and 47% of Camaro's roots was he got targeted.
He had -20 air yards and he had like. 30 tree, 30 tree, actual
receiving yards. So he was basically being
targeted, let's say 4 yards or or or minus.
Minus, let's say -2, yeah, say -2 yards in the backfield and
then getting back to tree yards, but beyond the line of
scrimmage. So something like that.
And or or maybe even less like 1 yard beyond the line of
scrimmage 2 or so. Anyway and it's very clear that
they were they did not have a functional passing offense and
and we're blaming on the injury and so and then the the the the
defense probably did know hey they're just gonna choke it down
like so it's this is definitely a a strange strange week that I
I wouldn't expect to see too often and.
But having so that means I'm I'm completely writing off this
target obviously I'm I'm writing off the the target number it's
just it's bananas it's not going to happen again and I'm probably
expecting a little bit better efficiency and but we we have
seen this ongoing decline and Camara's skill set as a as a run
after the cash receiver and but. There there's definitely a
chance where he's like still a a serviceable NFL route runner as
a running back and can can make plays and but I think, I do
think at a pick 50 it's it's just too rich for what you're
getting there. Yeah I I think you're right
there. I I probably was being a little
too friendly to Kamara at that ADP just because I have none of
him in in my normal best ball drafts and I I didn't want to
let my bias of not having any of them bury him.
But I he has been bad. I I don't think he's all of a
sudden you know found the fountain of youth and gonna look
like you know the album Kamara of yesteryear or yesteryears you
know so that that's probably a that's better better analysis
than I gave there moving moving on from.
No, I I don't think better just just different different flavor
moving moving on from Kamera we see Swift he's he's gonna
eventually he's almost broken into that 15 to 20 fantasy point
band there. I think he gets there.
I think the Eagles they they've shown that they realize that
Swift is the better option to gain.
Well I think it's what what it's going to shake out as is Swift
is that that primary back he's going to get.
You know the Miles Sanders level work that Sanders got last year
possibly even a little bit more. He has been utilized in the
passing game you know a little more than Sanders was as well.
And so I think that we see the the most painful thing to me is
this offseason when people started hyping Kenny gain Well I
I was saying you know we we did this last year we we got signal
last year that oh the coaching staff loves Kenny Gainwell.
They're wearing Kenny Gainwell tshirts at press conferences.
Kenny you know he's the guy they trust like it's it's Kenny
Gainwell season you idiots are drafting swift way ahead of gain
well it's going to be gain well and I for a long time I held
pretty firm that like no we I'm not getting tricked on this
Kenny Gainwell shit again. Like I I know what Kenny
Gainwell is. He's you know a satellite back
plus he's a change of pace back. You know he can he can take some
carries and some workload. He's never going to be the, you
know the primary guy in the offense.
And eventually I I added a little gain well to my position
just to to not be so, so underweight on him.
And now in with the hindsight of how the seasons played out, I'm
just wishing I'd made the bet on talent, on Swift.
And So what I what I want as a take away for myself for next
year is when there's a running back with elite talent like I I
thought DeAndre Swift was an elite talent.
I was drafting him in the second round last year, you know,
behind a Lions offensive line that I thought was one of the
best offensive lines in the league.
And then Swift goes to the Eagles with another one of the
best offensive lines in the league.
And I was just barely overweight on him at his ADP, you know at a
substantial discount from where he was.
And so if I ever get an opportunity like that again
where the market severely discounts a guy because a run
out for a particular season was poor, you know, and his
opportunity could change, I'm just going to be really
aggressive and hammer it and bet on the talent again.
And so I just, I wanted to to say that to not only remind
myself but to hopefully give some other people some alpha for
next season if we if we get situations like this in the
future. And I I think very often draft
season does give us opportunities to to bet on on on
discounted talent because they don't like whatever they don't
like the points, they don't they think something coaching and
they think the situation is bad and I think we we will
definitely get opportunities like that time and time again.
And and sometimes you just get your you get your your face
smashed in and people call you an idiot like what kind of idiot
didn't realize that Swift like just pisses off his coaches
doesn't understand how to run behind an old line won't take
his block like this like that that was all stuff that like was
definitely out there and it's I think it's it's really hard to
ignore and and I found I found it difficult to ignore at times
and. I I ended up I end up slightly
probably slightly more overweight than you did and but
I I'm at like 16 1/2% but in in in hindsight I'm like why didn't
I have so much more this is such a clear spot but stuff like that
can be really really difficult to to ignore I think and and and
just on on on Swift himself so he's gonna pick Turdy now which.
I think is slightly too cheap and I think he should be.
He should be a second round back I think and but definitely happy
to bet on him in the in the in the middle of the turd and
middle of the 3rd and he's he's last couple of weeks, last two
weeks and he's had an average of 9 1/2 expected points.
From the running game and an expected 5.
From from receiving game so actually sort of like pretty
balanced as as in terms of like rushing and as a receiver and
and very efficient with his carries and and what is sort of
interesting is that he's actually he's ran bad on
touchdowns so he's he's ran just on just about.
And one touchdown less than expected and and so like if if
you sort of like expect efficiency from from Swift he
could be even better than he's been playing in the last couple
weeks. Yeah, Aaron in the chat has a a
good point, he said. I mean that coaching staff did
not trust or like Swift unless we want to consider he was
indeed hurt those times. I mean, we we certainly know he
was hurt last season and the other point that I want to make
on on coaching Staffs is. For the most part, we should
probably just assume that most coaching Staffs in the NFL are
not good. You know, like there's a few
that are good and most of them are not.
And so just because they make a decision, I'm I'm sure people
have heard that, you know, the assumption of rational coaching,
Like, don't assume these guys are rational.
They're not. They're not doing rational stuff
a lot of the time. And so you get yourself in a in
a trap where you're like, Oh well.
This coaching staff didn't like him, therefore he's not good.
And so instead it's just, hey, let's not take the signal of
what the coaching staff is telling us.
The only and I think I mentioned this on this show earlier in
this this year, unless a team has really demonstrated for me
that they are like significantly above average, they have a a
very talented staff in a specific area like I've I
mentioned the Steelers and you know evaluating wide receiver
talent. Then that's something where I'm
willing to lean into that narrative and say I trust the
Steelers to draft good wide receivers.
I'll I'll take some shots on Calvin Austin, cuz they liked
him. But for the most part, I'm just
gonna assume that the coaches don't really know what they're
doing with respect to, you know, if they do or don't like a
player, if there's signal that the player's really talented,
I'm just gonna bet on talent over what?
Whatever the coach is telling us.
So what helped with Sueth as well is that he changed coaching
Staffs like I I don't think I'm ever.
It's gonna be very difficult for me to trust like this kind of
like swift archetype like back on on the on the lines just
because I feel like unless we get much better news on I can't
believe I'm black enough. Who's the who's the the 2nd
Jamir Gibbs. And for the lines for the rest
of the year, I think we're getting pretty good signal here
that they even when they tell us that they love those guys, they
don't actually like, they like the idea of them.
They don't like the reality of those players, even though they
should. Yeah, no, they they were happy
to throw away. You know an early first round
pick on a guy that they're just not.
They're not gonna give anywhere near the opportunity to that he
he deserves if you're gonna spend that much on a guy.
That better be like a core, core part of your offense.
You think he's a true true difference maker.
He's the engine and they're just not using him that way because
they're not they're not all that sharp and and right, the worst
the worst thing about that and this is like the Lions are like
diet Arthur Smith, right. Like Dan Campbell's diet Arthur
Smith. Like at least he has a good
offensive coordinator there that they're you know they're gonna.
Put up a a function, a much more functional offense than it,
right? But they're never going to do
what actually would be. They're not going to fully
unlock the potential of their passing game because they're
happy to put the ball in Monty's belly.
You know 30 * a game if if they get any inkling that they can
win a game and give the ball to him 30 times.
They are happy to do that and happy as a pig and shine is what
we would say. Absolutely.
Anyone else on this chart that you wanted to hit on?
No, I I think I think we should move on.
So now we move on to the tight end utilization and efficiency
chart. And so with tight ends similar
to to running back and with the with some exceptions a lot of
the time and what you're looking for is a tight end who's going
to run a lot of routes and you want the ones where they they
have, it's the same guy on the field over and over and they
don't ask them to pass block too often.
And then and that's what we have, we in the green chart, we
have their their percentage of team drop backs where they're
running a route and then and we also have their targets per our
run because obviously we don't just want, we don't want the
empty calorie routes like Adam Troutman who's running a route
but doesn't doesn't get targeted very often at eight, 8% targets
per at run. And then we look at a dot as
well because we do want the targets down the field.
Although I one thing that that struck me when I was looking at
this chart is that these A dots are are just pretty low across
the board. Feels like this is a low a dot
tight end year. Yeah and I've I've heard people
talk about that it it very well could be a product of you know
the how how common you know too high and safeties is becoming
We're using tight ends to attack the shorter areas of the field
and less you know on those seam routes to to really right keep
and I I I think that. There's there's definitely some
some merit to that theory when I when I look at this chart I mean
it's I'm not not seeing a ton that really is worth you know
noteworthy you know hey Mark Andrews is mark Andrews is good
Oh my gosh we're all surprised 20% targets for right run and it
one of I do find it a bit shocking that given given all
the tiltage on call pits that like his route rate is like it
it's it's it's #2 and yes he's not like he's not going
particularly untargeted 16% targets per run is not awful
he's getting deep targets and so it's it feels to me that he
doesn't have this awful role he's just playing on a bad
offense It's it's sort of like it's not like the the Falcons
could just turn on the switch and and maybe this is more of a
negative point than anything it's not like the the Falcons
can turn on the switch and then it's the call call Pitt score
point switch like if it feels like a lot of this is is more
the the the low production is sort of the function of the
offense. Yeah, it's it's systemic for
sure. Through four games, Ritter's
averaging less than 30 attempts per game, which is not great.
He's under 750 yards, so under 200 yards a game.
It's just it's a small pie, you know, and and Kyle Pitts is not
even playing tight end. He's he's lining up out wide and
in the slot more than he lines up at tight end.
And that's why Johnny Smith is out there.
Look at Johnny Smith, 22% targets per route run.
You know shorter a dot than Kyle Pitts cuz he's operating more
like a traditional tight end. For all intents and purposes,
Kyle Pitts is the wide receiver too.
On the Atlanta Falcons, it's. You know Drake, London's the
wide receiver one. Kyle Pitts is the wide receiver
too. But it's an offense where you
don't even want the wide receiver one.
So you know the tight in eligibility is sweet.
But to to me your your only prayer with Kyle Pitts now is
that you get a random week in the playoffs where he he gets
you know 2 touchdowns and you you got him as a low advanced
rate guy because. Without we're gonna need a major
change tune for this Atlanta team.
For him to pay off his ADP, even though he was not terribly
expensive, it it's really unfortunate.
I had, I had been out on Kyle Pitts every year up until this
year. I never had had drank the
kool-aid and I considered myself lucky for not, you know, falling
on the Kyle Pitts grenade when he was going like in the third
round. But I thought this year.
Ohh my gosh. This guy put up like the best
rookie Titan season of all time, You know, in the modern NFL.
And you're telling me that I can get this guy in like the 6th,
7th, 8th round, even sometimes on DraftKings.
Like OK, I'm all in and I I got bamboozled This year, hand up I
I did. It got bamboozled.
Yeah, it is it. It's it's really tough and just
because like because he does have this deep roll it does feel
like there's at least some chance where he captures some
deep passes and and puts in some huge games and it's like every
time I look Kyle Pitts is he's going later and the other thing
is is that so right now his ADP is 117.
He's gone right between Hunter Henry and Jake Ferguson.
Wow. And like obviously if if you
were drafting call pits during regular basketball season like
you, you are down horrendous. We are down horrendous.
And yes, but it's there's also something there where it's like,
OK, well you do have to, you do have to put tight ends in your
roster. And he's going in a range now
where the scoring is so, so anemic for tight ends and that
it's like even with the bad top pits games like, So what, he's a
tight end, he's going in the anemic tight end range.
Where Where has Sam Laporte's ADP moved to?
Sam LaPorte is now 52 and he is a tight end 4 by ADP head of
George Kittle. Head of Darren Waller, which is
pretty appropriate. Yeah, that's appropriate.
Yeah, let's, let's talk about Darren Waller for a little bit.
Is that. Let's let's just say it's you
know the the 12th round pick pick 140, you even sniffing
Darren Waller here and the 12th round 140.
Yeah, I think so. OK.
Now just because like I guess you are getting it in an awful,
awful offense and it's targeted for at run last week 7% down
from 2618 and 22 in the three prior weeks and and.
It looks looks pretty bad. It it it feels pretty bad and
that feels pretty, pretty bad. I guess on the flip side is that
he is. So if you exclude week one,
you're talking like 85% and route share, you're talking like
if you I don't want to throw out week 4.
But if if you think that 20% is closer to the median, like
that's obviously even in an awful offense that that's really
good. So it's like there is there's
definitely some value there and there's and there's some points
for him to score. But the market way overplayed
way overpriced while or this year given the given the issues
with the joints given his age and I pick 77 and I'm very
confident that that's going to go down and but still being very
confident commonly say that that's not appropriate pricing
and the risk. Yeah, I would.
I would have zero at pick 77 and sleep like a baby.
Yeah, zero. Very, very confident 0 and so I
don't I don't think I guess I should point out the Julian Hill
so he only played in a wheat tree when Durham smite and was
was missing for some reason and so wouldn't read too much into
that and but other than that I I don't see anything sort of like
new that we haven't talked about in for our weeks here.
The only one that I wanna hit on now that we have a little more
sample for it is Dallas Goddard is just not not getting as
involved as you. You know he's on the field all
the time, but the he's not gonna get the opportunities, you know
only 14% targets per route run when he is getting targeted.
I to me that I know that 8 out of 6.
That just feels from watching how he's getting targeted I feel
like his eight dot is much lower.
I would need to look at the individual data points, but my
guess would be that that's getting boosted up by a couple
deeper targets cuz a lot of the stuff just looks really short
for him. I mean, 6 isn't terribly deep as
it is, but. He's just not super involved
down the field. I, you know, the couple times
where he's gotten targets, it's like they manufactured stuff for
him. It's like little tight end
screen or you know quick quick hitter type stuff.
So definitely you know he Dallas Goddard is is closer to Kyle
Pitts than than he is. You know the the actual elite
tight ends. But anyway that's that's that's
the last one I needed to talk about on Yeah yeah I think some
of the some of that a dot. He's only gotten 19 targets this
year, so like a deep, a deep shot Will will push that up
quite a bit. He's he he only has a a total of
113 air yards. 24 games, yeah. Yeah.
So you need a substantial, I think you've got elite
contingent value there and that was Goddard and but that is that
is it sort of. I think, yeah, it's depressing
it. It does require an injury.
You're right. It's it's only the contingent
value there, which is it's crazy to say, you know, through
through four weeks. I feel very confident that I
want Hunter Henry over Dallas Scotter.
I feel very confident that I want Jake Ferguson over Dallas
Scotter. You know, like in that.
Just get in a time machine and tell yourself you know, in July.
That Sam, like people who drafted Dallas Goddard, would
trade for Sam Laporta in a heartbeat.
Like, you know, they would pay double for your BBM entry.
If you were allowed to swap your Dallas Goddard out for Sam
Laporta, you'd gladly pay $50.00 to to get that.
Like, oh man, that is pretty. Yeah, pretty rough and pretty
rough and and and. No, no, no noise about a squeaky
wheel game eater. So let's say let's move on to
the backups. Who you know who showed a little
life this week that I I mean I need to not this is a warning
this is my my bias for this player but NOA fan in his you
know that one explosive play that he had that's why I was
drafting Noa fan cuz he could do that you know and.
You just gotta hope that between Will Disley and whoever is it
is, it is Colby Parkinson. The other Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Between Will Disley and Colby Parkinson, you've gotta just
hope that no offense, talent wins out.
And I know that in Seattle they've done the whole like it's
a party. It's everybody gets to play
tight end. We all, we're sharing friends,
you know, no one gets all the work.
You just have to hope that no offen makes enough of a case.
That he can't be kept off the field.
The other, the other problem there though, before we get too
bullish on Noafant is, you know, we're still not seeing anything
from JSN, which we'll get to in a little bit, but it's probably
probably not worth chasing after Noafant.
But you know, maybe it's like your third tied in.
I would assume he's still free in resurrection, but I'd be glad
to have him as my third tied in to take a shot on that.
Probably only stacked with Gino or or or at the very least
correlated with the Pittsburgh bring back for week 17.
But I I think that was worth pointing out.
I mean Jake Ferguson continues to to do Jake Ferguson things.
He's getting a ton of targets. I even even with you know not
being on the field all the time that's still a tight end that's
worth having just so many targets and.
When when Tony Pollard isn't getting those those Green Zone
touches, there's a decent chance that you're getting a random
Jake Ferguson Green Zone target. So yeah, makes makes sense.
Oh, there's there's one more here.
Gerald Everett actually starts to become interesting because
Donald Parham, who some affectionately refer to as Big
Dick Donnie, did it, looked like he came down pretty hard on his
wrist. I'm not.
I haven't see, haven't looked into how serious the injury is.
But I've gotta imagine when you're a man as as big as Donald
Parham and you put all your weight on your wrist, it's
probably not great. But I I don't think he'll be out
for a long time. But maybe it's just like a one,
one or two week little, you know, little spike in usage.
Maybe Gerald Everett gets a little bit more.
That's probably more like a DFS thing than anything.
But yeah, like I was about to suggest that that I'm I'm
looking up the cell right now, but that he feels.
Like he's on by this week, so you need you need Donny to yeah,
you need Donny to miss another week.
And then you also need Justin Herbert's broken finger on his
non throwing hand to not really negatively impact the
production. So it's probably too soon
something to look at for. Yeah, keep an eye on it.
Makes that makes sense. Makes sense for sure.
Yeah, not not seeing a whole lot else here.
Jake Ferguson obviously love to see this kind of like high
targets per hour run and and hope that the the routes come
up. But does sound like the the
Cowboys have no intention of splitting up those tight end
routes differently because they like having a I think you said
on a previous episode that they like having lots of people
involved. So I'm going to move on just so
we have time for these receive receiver charts and and so this
is a little bit different to the rest of our charts.
We've got weighted targets per hour run on the horizontal axis
and and weighted targets per hour run.
It's like targets per hour run, but.
Their yards is like it's a component of it where and you're
basically you're saying that targets down the field matter
more. And so the guys on the right are
not just getting targeted at a high rate, they're getting
targeted down the field at a high rate.
And then and pretty simply we've got fantasy points per game on
on the vertical axis. And these are all the first
chart is all guys with 85 to 100% routes run.
So these are all the locked in almost every downstarters.
And then in the top right you've got guys playing locked in
almost every down, dominating targets, scoring lots of
financing points. You you want your you want your
drop picks to be in the top right of our chart here.
Yeah, absolutely. Saw a little bit.
I mean, like, I guess training in the right direction for Jamar
Chase, like he's. He's getting targets, but the
offense looks really poor, so he's he's still, you know, he he
hasn't made his way up to that top right corner, but he is in
the top right quadrant, at least now.
Christian Kirk began moving a little bit further down the
weighted targets per route run access there and then Calvin
Ridley. Is starting to fade into the
he's not. He's not all the way down into
the Milk carton part of the chart yet, but he's in the
quadrant where the Milk Carton Boys live.
He's just been missing. So I'm if I his friends are
ringing on his mom's doorbell, can the Calvin Ridley come out
and play? Yeah, and and if I were a Calvin
Ridley drafter, I wouldn't be so concerned.
Like, I don't think that he's, he's certainly not dead.
You know, he's running tons of routes.
He's out there. But I just, I view it as
everyone in this offense will get a turn, you know, Christian
Kirk's gonna have a week. Calvin Ridley's gonna have a
week. Say, Jones' gonna have a week.
Every once in a while he'll get a Evan Ingram week, but they're
all gonna take a turn. And yeah I I would wouldn't
wouldn't totally panic on Calvin Ridley but like the the ADP that
we saw at the end of the summer was not efficient for him.
Yeah yeah super bad and you are talking about pretty a good
knock. I think we're looking at a good
knock great NFL receiver and is is is what the dot is telling us
and so now you're never gonna believe is is a resurrection.
ADP is still at pick 23. Hilarious.
Absolutely hilarious. It's because he started so high.
He started at like the 1-2 turn and the market is just.
Bad at you know guy guys get anchored.
It just, yeah. The the lower on the extremes
guys that are so low, you know move up too slow and guys that
are really too high move, move down too slow.
It really feels like to me the guys in the middle are the ones
that can move closer to efficient than the guys that are
so extremes. Let me ask you, Calvin Ridley or
Mary Cooper. I'll take Ridley Okay and Calvin
Ridley or Brandon Iuk. That one's close.
It's probably if they're going right next to each other, then
it's the one where I'm gonna. I'll do some of both.
Okay and IUK goes about 1/2 around later.
Yeah, OK. Then I I'd have more IUK than
Ridley probably, but just slightly.
Like I'm not. I I wouldn't like be taking IUK
aggressively over Ridley, but I'd probably end up with more
IUK than Ridley, if that makes sense.
Calvin Ridley or Garrett Wilson. Garret Wilson?
Garrett. Wilson is now going pick 49.
Cool good good buying opportunity.
You're just we we talked about it when we did the draft and I
mean we're we're down bad on our Garrett Wilson cost there.
But you you we don't want to draft for what's happening right
now in this exact moment. We're trying to draft for the
rest of the season from Week 6 onward, and so the the outcomes
for Garrett Wilson are. Zach Wilson continues to suck.
OK, if Zach Wilson keeps being really bad, like the the Chiefs
game was just a total anomalies. Never.
That's his best game he's going to have this season.
He is not going to remain the quarterback for the whole
season. And and then when you're looking
at when Garrett Wilson gets a better quarterback, it it's
going to be later in the season and in the most important weeks,
in the playoff weeks where all the money is.
So that's like. To me, it feels like a smash for
Garrett Wilson at pick 49 and then in the outcomes, where Zach
Wilson remains the quarterback for the whole season, it's
because he looks more like Zach Wilson against the Chiefs did.
Where he's not, you know, he's not a world beater, but he is
throwing the ball to his best player.
He's giving giving his playmakers a chance to make a
play and he had a couple really good throws in that game.
It wasn't just like. You know, I don't want to get
here and stand Zach Wilson too hard.
But yeah, the it's a huge overreaction to have Garrett
Wilson going after Calvin Ridley in my opinion.
Agree. Agree.
And so you can you can sort of see Garrett Wilson.
He isn't he's in this section of the chart where right next to
chase. He's literally right next to
chase in the chart where he's getting targeted at a high rate
he's on the field all the time the the the points aren't there
because of Zach Wilson inefficiency and but that's it's
that's this is pretty clearly a situation where and and you gave
the more particular one but it's a situation that we're talking
about where you have this extreme extreme talent where
you're getting a discount because of the situation and I
like talent doesn't really change that much like a barring
injury and stuff like that but situation can change in an
instant like I I I don't wanna like make this sound like more
lucky than it is but the the The Jets GM could be on the phone
right now could be at this very moment talking to somebody about
trading for a quarterback for like a quarterback that could
serve for them and that's an instantly an upgrade like he's
probably not but like stuff like this happens like the NFL
changes on a dime and and so I always wanna be taking players
where the the extreme talent is there and it it just takes a
small change in situation for to to unlock a lot of value.
Yeah, very, very well said. And then we we touched on this
guy earlier when we weren't on the wide receiver charts, but.
You know with how he plays with his quarterback and that's Chris
Olave. You know, former college
teammate of Garrett Wilson and they're they're right along, you
know same level of fantasy point per game production.
Olave is getting even more weighted targets per route run
and I just think that you're gonna, you know in season long
you might have a good opportunity to acquire a Lave.
I'd try and go do that if you can.
It's the same way that I described, like playing Garrett
Carr and the whole Saints passing right offense, and we
want to buy it. Yeah.
Wait, wait this week and then attack aggressively go after it.
So makes sense for sure, and we already touched on the Falcons,
but very alarming to see Drake London in the loser part of the
the chart. And just very alarming because
he should, he should be sort of like able to concentrate
progress on the field and the fact that he's not in like that
kind of offense is is pretty significant on our bill, I
think. I've got a got an interesting
question for you here. I've heard a lot of people talk
about Tyler Boyd as a good waiver ad.
You know, with with T Higgins broken ribs, you know, probably
going to miss a couple weeks or if he does play like, is he
really going to be able to to be out there for a lot of snaps?
So I've heard a lot of people talk of Tyler Boyd.
As you know his opportunity could increase.
You know, maybe that's a good waiver AD.
What do you think of that? Are you are you buying the the
Tyler Boyd opportunity increase here and so Tyler Boyd it it
it's sort of like it's funny because if if I thought Joe
Burrow was healthy I would I totally would be buying the that
the increased opportunity. I think that toddler Boyd is
like a pretty good player and and that the fact that he's now
the second best receiver there like I I I sort of do expect
better things for toilet Boyd and but it it's like well it's
better things but in an offense that's really really struggling
like I'm maybe putting more weight on them on the Joe Burrow
injury and then maybe I should be and but I I do think there
I'm putting a lot of stock in the in the like really low depth
of target for Burrow and the anemic performance and it's like
yes I think he's going to get higher opportunity but unless
it's PPR like and and and even in PPR like what's that like six
targets where he gets 40 yards and and and low chance of a
touchdown So he's probably your 10 points guy and it's like
maybe that's a plug and play and and and you hope that you get
that you you rack up those catches but I I I I I need I
need Burrow to plan much better for for for Boyd to interest me.
So here's a, you know, quick, quick waiver decision.
Probably both these players available in a lot of leagues,
Tyler Boyd or Jamison Williams off waivers and I I'm more
interested in Jensen. Yeah, me too.
And I mean, it's like, it's hard to be overly confident in
Jameson and given his his preseason struggles and like
lack of production last year and well, you're you're just, you're
still talking about somebody who was like the best but the best
receiver for Alabama. And I'm like a team stacked with
five star recruits who immediately, like, was a huge
part of their offense. Very important and elite speed.
He does feel like a much stronger bet than Tolar Boyd,
that's for sure. Yeah, cuz it's not about the
confidence you have in Jamison Williams versus the confidence
you have in Tyler Boyd. Like Tyler Boyd produces for you
at a higher frequency. But the range of outcomes for
Jamison, like Tyler Boyd's range of outcomes, we know exactly
what it is, right? We know what Tyler Boyd is.
We know what his best games look like.
We know what his you know, mean outcomes look like for Jamison
Williams no matter how uhoh. Well we lost Rico here so we'll
we'll continue. But we we know what Boyd is for
Jamison Williams. The range of outcomes is still
unknown. We don't know what he is so we
can sorry. You're you're OK.
I I I think it's clearly a an opportunity to take the bet on
the guy with the wider range of outcomes and when you win it's a
big win and when you miss whatever you missed out on Tyler
Boyd or or you know waiver equivalent.
But I I didn't have anyone else on this chart that I felt like
we needed to spend time on. Did you?
No, no. We can move on and I I guess
Dotson continued to be concerning and but we've talked
about that before more saying like continuation of the trend
that we were talking about. So maybe slightly more
concerning that he's just not able to get at this kind of
concentrated targets on the fields and so doesn't feel great
there. I'm I'm.
I'm getting increasingly more concerned with Johanne Dotson.
Yeah, so moving on. So these are still starters and
so 70 to 85% routes run and but maybe guys where the the they're
not pure, they're not like 100% route runners.
And Tyriq as ever he liked the finds this chart where he he
he's a little bit older so he does take some some plays off
but like completely like 90% way to target spread run is insane
25 points per game. Very good.
Love seeing Brandon IU here where he's like clearly the
team's like preferred deep threat and he's been able to
convert that into into points and so that is that is great to
see for Brandon IU drafters I think.
Yeah, absolutely. And I mean Nico, Nico Collins
continuing to be a huge value where he was drafted, delivering
legitimate Spike weeks, really exciting.
Mike Evans exited with a hamstring injury, But I mean,
for anyone drafting Mike Evans, it's been a huge win so far this
season. You know, Baker has been more
than competent, able to produce. For him, from what I've heard,
the hamstring isn't super serious.
So if you know in a season long where you can trade, if if you
can get Mike Evans for cheap because someone's worried about
the hamstring and maybe they just don't think it's
sustainable, maybe maybe go and grab him there.
You know who I may need to capitulate on already?
Michael Wilson. I think in in week one might
have been week 1 or Week 2. I said something to the effect
of Michael Wilson was a figment of our imagination.
You know, Big Best ball just made him up to trick you into
spending your last round pick on a guy with a made-up name.
No, he was out there. He was out there in force, you
know, running lots of rounds. My accountant is out in the NFL
scoring touchdowns. Yes, he is 2 of them and.
Yeah, he, I mean, he was as advertised and he's a big body
guy. They, they seem to like him.
Yeah. I mean, if you're drafting
Michael Wilson, you gotta be happy with that already.
I mean that's basically already paid off his ADP, so definitely
gotta gotta capitulate on that one.
The other here is super interesting I think where now
he's he's above he's been above 85% routes run week tree in four
and 26% targets per out per route and we treat 35% in week 4
like very firmly in the top right maybe not up with hanging
out with Ayuk and but seems like he's emerging as like maybe not
a star but like top quality NFL player.
I'm. I'm still.
I'm hesitant to buy it from dubs I I think it's it would be not
too difficult for because I don't think as as far as a
talent level he's I I don't know if he belongs in this area of
the chart I don't think he's a Nico Collins or a Brandon IU or
certainly not a Mike Evans or Tyree kill level talent.
You know, I mean shoot there's lots of guys on this chart that
I I would take any day over him or he's he's looking better with
where he's at. But I didn't think and on the
next chart we'll see his teammate Jayden Reid.
I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the season Reid has
has stolen more work away from dubs.
I I think that it's it's going to follow that traditional
rookie receiver trajectory where it takes, you know, Reid's going
to have to earn more and more targets.
He's going to earn more routes, earn time on the field and
eventually be able to take over that role from Dubs.
And we still have the variable of Christian Watson in there,
who wasn't, didn't seem like he was fully healthy.
Didn't play a full compliment of snaps, didn't get a ton of
targets. So this, the Packers situation
is really interesting to me. It's definitely one to watch.
I'm, I'm not entirely decided how it would play it.
I think I might be biased because I really like Jayden
Reed as a prospect and I was not sold on Christian Watson.
But I I I'm just curious what your what your what was
concerning for you in Romeo dubs is that talent sort of like
profile because these are pretty these are pretty good numbers
like double digits targets and like high targets for a run and
seems to be converting it decently well and.
Yeah, I I think it's more that he's just he's a beneficiary of
circumstance here. There someone, you know if the
offense is going to go out and not put up 0 yards, someone's
gotta catch some passes, right? Like, and Christian Watson's
gone and it's rookie Jayden Reed and Romeo dubs and gosh, I I
can't even what? What are some of the other
Samarra Toure like? Yeah, the Arsenal Center half.
Yeah, so like. I I think for me my concern with
dubs is less about what he's been doing so far this season.
That's more about like his his prospect profile coming out of
college. He's a sub athlete you know his
his production in college was just OK you know he's 64th
percentile college dominator. You know not didn't didn't play
against world beating competition.
What's in Nevada? You know, later Draft pick,
late, late fourth round? Did have a decent breakout age,
but for me, I don't know, I I didn't think that Dubs was
anything particularly special as a prospect.
And so maybe I'm anchored too much to that and I'm I'm
counting that more than I should and I should be paying more
attention to his production in the NFL against NFL caliber
talent. But I just think it's, I think
there's opportunity to be won in this offense.
There's there's target share to be had.
And I don't know that he's going to be able to hold off.
You know, if you gave me dubs against the field, where the
field is, all the other Packers receiving options, I'm going to
take the field. I'll take, you know, Luke,
Buster, Christian Watson, Jaden Reed.
I don't think that Dubs has such a stranglehold on that.
He's going to be the guy to own in this offense.
So that's that's all. But I where where is he going in
resurrection? That's that.
Let's find out. So we're looking for dubs.
He is going to take 8585 and what about Reed and and
Musgrave? Reed is going 121 Okay, Musgrave
is going and sorry, one second. I had to filter down to the
receivers. Most grave is going at pick 101,
actually 132 I should say. Oh, OK.
Yeah. Gosh, I mean, I I guess you're
not getting such a large discount on the on read then
that I probably just spread the bets around the offense and
probably just I I would assume is Christian Watson still going
way too expensive? Christian Watson is going and
he's going 45. So, yeah, Disgusting.
Yeah. OK, so I'd have 0% Christian
Watson and I'd be overweight. Read.
Probably neutral dubs, and probably neutral on Musgrave.
So yeah, I I I do think it's interesting when.
Prospects are like like just for to go back to dubs.
I know that lots of analysts did rate at dubs like decently high
and and then he's a like it's not like he's a vet and like
this is like some like 4 year breakout and it's two games or
whatever. He's a second year player, which
is traditionally when most receiver breakouts happen like
that. That is the biggest jump for
receivers. And so that's sort of why I'm
buying it a little bit more than you, but definitely get that the
dominator rating was not special and he was a four year starter
in Michigan. So definitely get the pushback
there and but that's Reed was Michigan.
Dubs was Nevada, but. Did I say Michigan Yeah but but
you're you're actually you're getting me to come around a
little more on dubs. I I think I might I I'm just
yeah I I'm probably anchored too much to my priors I should I
should come around on dubs a little bit if I'm if I'm that
low on Christian Watson should probably just come around on
them. Unless I'm really just saying
that this is one of those offenses like we talked about
where it's not gonna be an offense that produces.
But I think that they're, I think they're play calling, I
think they're, you know, they're they're gonna do enough to right
at their prices. I agree there there's enough
going on in Green Bay that you will want a piece or two.
So this chart is it's it's a little bit hard to make out and
just because some of these players bunched so close
together and we've got Jerry, Judy here, he's just over.
She's just north of 50% and way the targets per run.
And and just under 10 points a game and which doesn't it
doesn't feel great going out as cost.
It's not awful coming off the injury but it definitely it
doesn't feel great and based on its cost I'm I'm starting to get
a smidge concern with that. Would you be there?
Yeah. The the thing with that this
chart doesn't incorporate in the weighted targets per route run
is the amount of dog in the player.
And Jerry Judy has exactly 0 dog for anyone that didn't watch
that Broncos Bears game. And I don't blame you for not
watching it. There was a play that got me to
swear off ever drafting a single share of Jerry Judy again for as
long as he's an NFL player. And hand it I'm just gonna this
is a hill I'm gonna die on hand to.
God, I I've drafted my last Jerry, Judy share.
But it's a it's a play where Russ has bought some time in the
pocket. It's gotten extended a little
bit and Judy has beat his man downfield.
He's he's got separation. He's about to blow by the safety
and the safety doesn't really take the correct angle to be
able to to cover him. Russ lets it rip and this just
looks like either a easy completion.
This is you know Russ does this all day.
You know, moon shot default right into the arms of his
receiver. Easy peasy.
You know. And the safety, the angle that
he took, he was going to collide with Judy on the route.
As long as Judy kept running and he's got a right to the ball he
can he can just keep running and let the safety collide with him.
Get the Pi call easy 50 yard chunk.
You know. And the offense needed it.
They were they were down to the Bears at that point.
They hadn't got much going and instead of finishing his route
he just pulled up and just like capitulated and said I don't
really wanna run in to this defender.
That sounds not fun and I'm good off that I don't need my
receipt. Your weighted targets per route
run don't actually mean anything.
If on half of those targets you're just giving up cuz you're
scared of getting hit. Like I'm good off of that.
I don't need any Jerry Judy. Probably an emotional
overreaction. Don't act.
This is not actionable. Don't.
Don't pay attention to me. But I'm never drafting.
Jerry Yeah, not at not financial advice.
I mean, just just to to to provide some pushback on that.
And you do have this thing where he was the most talented player
on like a loaded, loaded Alabama team.
Like he has been solid as an NFL receiver and hasn't quite worked
out so far but 77 and in resurrection so probably just
efficient to a smidge and over well you know I I I think that's
that's probably about right and and and.
That's probably about right and given that the the the Broncos
offense has been able to to put up points their defense sucks so
they're going to be in in in shootouts or in in catch up mode
every week and but that definitely definitely a little
bit concerning that he's he's I guess he hasn't been able to put
up points and and he hasn't been able to earn targets over
Sutton. In a way that I was sort of like
expecting but totally yeah, totally understand the the lack
of dog point. So who else have we got here?
I I don't think anybody like really stands out here and you
do see the Andre Hopkins and right out here, but it's it's
like it's not even that useful because he's only sworn 10
points. It's more of a sign of it.
It feels like more of a sign that the the text Titans passing
game is just anemic and and and sort of nonfunctional that
somebody can be at 80% where the target Spirit run and ten points
a game. Yeah, you're you're only you're
out there to DeAndre Hopkins being really useful is that
somehow the Titans get together and and get a good passing
offense which seems then. Yeah and and like we talked
about last week actually in like seeing Trail and Burks come out
here on the way to target spread run.
But again and you need a you need functional passing game for
this to for this to be useful. Any anybody else you you want to
talk about here before you move on to the last chart?
No, I think we can can go to the last part here.
So super spread out here which makes it much easier to read and
a little bit interesting that Christian Watson and even on
limited routes and what we got 40 to 50% routes run he's he's
still sold 50% weighted targets for our run.
So I think I think that's somewhat interesting in that.
Part of like what made him hit so well last year was that he
had a really high weighted target spirit run.
He was he was getting lots of down the field shots.
Last year where it doesn't feel like because normally on these
starters and and maybe it is, maybe it is just a hamstring
injury and he's been worked back but when when you have, when you
have guys with low root chairs. You see the one of them that
really get involved in those limited roots.
So I think that is like that's something to watch.
But that low number for Christian Watson, Yeah, the the
guy I was really interested in this week, I mean everyone else
on this chart kind of was, you know, business as usual.
But the guy that I was really excited about was Lawndale.
The Giants have a terrible offense.
It looks real. They've had two good quarters of
offense and it was against the Cardinals.
So they need something, right. They like, they have to figure
something out and Wandale looks like hands down, the best player
on their offense. Like, I don't think it's very
close. I think he's, you know, far and
away the best player on the offense with sake one off the
field. Yeah.
And so I I I. Think that 64% route share last
night or yeah, I think, I think that only goes up from here.
Yeah, as he's working back from the ACL, he's the kind of guy
where I'm much more excited about him in PPR.
I just think he's he's the type of guy that racks up a lot of
targets. I don't think he's going to
operate, you know, terribly deep down the field.
But I mean in in the Giant's quest this offseason to collect
all of the slot receivers, maybe they were collecting them all to
just be able to siphon their life force into Wandale
Robinson's knee to heal him. Because he is the only
worthwhile receiver on this team that I want for fantasy.
Yeah, agree. And for him to be on on on on
this like 50% way to targets per outrun and.
With his average death of Target was 4 in week three and two in
week 4. So he's definitely like sort of
like a Target and and yak machine and and and like doing
that very well. So I would say definitely
priority like sort of like waiver pick up probably not
getting him in the main anymore and but in in maybe less
competitive leagues. And PVR leaks would be very,
very interested in in one though.
Yep, 100%. Really, really excited.
When I when I look at a basketball roster when I'm just,
you know, checking out the bags and I see Wandale on there at
the end of the roster. Oh yeah, that's that's gonna be
a fun one to watch. We'll put a pin in that one.
But yeah, other I'm just gonna do some quick hitters here
before we wrap up. Obviously you know Bateman
missing pretty concerning. I am very worried about the
Ravens offense and and I know we talked about Bateman and and
being optimistic for him starting to get concerned.
If you're gonna get anything from Bateman, it kind of looks
to me like it's gonna be one of those later in the season things
where maybe he does come back and and gives us, you know,
those flashes that we saw from those first couple games from
him of his career where he, you know, ripped off those huge
breakaway touchdown plays in the deep shots?
But that's one where I'm definitely legitimately
concerned. For Bateman now, JSN is just
they've refused to throw on the ball downfield at all.
When Drew Lock got in the game, they finally, like, threw him
the ball farther than two yards past the line of scrimmage.
I think once, but that's one I think.
I, I, I, I actually think Jackson JSN is a little bit
interesting in that last night he had a 75% route share which
is up from the 60 to 65 he had before.
So you you do have a a slight bump there and 24% targets per
at run only 29 air yards so like you wanna like.
You don't want to get over your skis or anything like that, but
I almost wonder if like there's a breakout getting.
Maybe this is called a breakout game coming for JSN that we
didn't see last night because it was such a blowout and and and
we just didn't see that many yet.
We only saw 28 dropbacks for the Seahawks last night, and I I
almost wonder if. He is actually emerging, but we
didn't see it last night because it was such a blowout win for
them. But on the other hand, maybe
that was because they were so we're so far ahead.
They were giving the rookies some run out and but I almost
think there is some sign of life there that's good context.
And yeah, I mean he had even prior to last week he'd been
trending in the right direction. It's just it feels, yeah, and
this is the kind of thing where you just gotta try and remain
even keel on it and not overreact and get too emotional
about it. But it just feels like it's
happening so slowly for him. When you see guys, yeah, like
Tank, like Tank Dell is coming out here and it's like, I think
JSN is like twice the player that Tank Dell will ever be.
And it's like why can't we get JSN involved like that.
You know, like you you see these other rookie wide receiver, you
Pooka. Dakua is out here breaking
records. And it's like, yeah, I mean JSN
has like, not to take anything away from how spectacular Puka
has been, but JSN has more talent in his broken wrist than
Puka has in his entire body. And it's like, can we please get
this guy to ball? Yeah, so it's just it's easy to
get frustrated with how long it's taking.
But I think he made good points that it it's it has always been
moving in the right direction. It's not like we're seeing him
like start to lose work or or get benched right or anything
like that, but it's to me the most for.
Have one big week and never look back.
We just I'm not seeing it right now.
Absolutely. You're you're 100% right it to
me. It just, it feels so far away
because it's not only does he need to start getting more
targets, more snaps, more routes, he also probably needs
them to start coming farther down the field.
Like there's only so much, I mean, shit, look at Jamar Chase,
like all of hit, you know, I would say, you know, we're
excited about Jsn's talent. I don't think he's Jamar Chase.
And Chase is getting all these like nothing.
You know, burger targets just short at the line of scrimmage
because they can't push the ball down the field.
I'm like, it's OK, but he's getting a lot of volume to make
anything fantasy relevant happen.
And so that's my biggest concern is like maybe we do eventually
start to get him getting more volume, but it's like, OK, And
then now we've got to wait for them to start deploying him
further down the field. So it feels really far away.
But I bet you the truth is probably somewhere in the middle
between how how we feel about it.
Where I'm I'm starting to be the doom and gloom about all my JSN
bags, and you're over here a little more on the Copium side
of things, but reality's probably right in the middle of
that, so. Right.
And I mean, I'm not like I I'm not ignorant of like listen he
needs to score points. He needs to make plays, needs to
score touchdowns and just just wanna be that.
There is some positive sign we're just not.
We're just we're not seeing the the good production yet.
Yeah, and and so in Resurrection, he's gone to one
pick a 109 and it's like, Oh my God, like that's get it all get
it. All I wanna drop so much JSN at
109. Yeah, because that's isn't that
right around where Garrett Wilson was going last year
During like not. Yeah, during resurrection.
But during. Yeah.
And so that's. Yeah, yeah.
You get it all. OK.
So I just. I either need to resign myself
to losing, just double the amount of money on Kendra Miller
and JSN, or I need to not draft any resurrection.
So I'm gonna gonna have to do some thinking about that.
Bankroll management yeah well I I feel like we covered everyone
we needed to on the on this chart and we we kept it a little
tighter this week you know under 2 1/2 hours.
So we're we're trying to get you guys the content in a digestible
amount of time, but. For those everybody listening on
2 1/2 X speed. Yeah, For those of you that hung
with us the whole time and you're here live.
Thank you. We, we appreciate you.
Hope that you got some value from what we shared tonight in
the charts. And with that, we'll we'll see
you next week. See you next week.
Thanks for thanks for tuning info.