1 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:15,960 It's week four and this is stat chasing. 2 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:19,880 We'll take you through all the usual charts and talk about the 3 00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:24,360 curse of the B teams. Why do the Broncos, the Bears, 4 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:27,880 the Bengals and the Browns sucks so bad? 5 00:00:29,030 --> 00:00:32,549 Did the Bills steal all their mojo for all B teams in the 6 00:00:32,549 --> 00:00:35,910 league? Find out this and more on stat 7 00:00:35,910 --> 00:00:43,630 chasing Pat Fryer homo this. Is squat. 8 00:00:44,070 --> 00:00:45,390 This is squat. I'm Pat Anita. 9 00:00:45,390 --> 00:00:50,300 Hand job, fix your site, Jamar. And also play chase. 10 00:00:50,300 --> 00:00:54,540 Are you kidding me? You can't handle the heat. 11 00:00:54,900 --> 00:00:56,180 It looks like we're finally at this point. 12 00:00:56,300 --> 00:01:07,060 You're right. Good evening, Drico. 13 00:01:07,060 --> 00:01:09,980 Hope you're doing well on this. Lovely. 14 00:01:09,980 --> 00:01:11,460 I hope you didn't use all your prep. 15 00:01:11,460 --> 00:01:16,660 Time taking of that intro, Zach. No, that one, man. 16 00:01:16,660 --> 00:01:18,860 We're just going off the top of the Dome here. 17 00:01:20,660 --> 00:01:26,420 How is Week 4 for you? And pretty good, pretty good. 18 00:01:26,780 --> 00:01:30,860 Obviously a little bit down to reality or back down to Eric for 19 00:01:30,860 --> 00:01:36,100 Laporta, one of my higher exposure players, a Chan 20 00:01:36,100 --> 00:01:38,060 continuing to put up great numbers. 21 00:01:38,060 --> 00:01:44,230 So that that's a big boost. And tracking about 2020 223% 22 00:01:44,470 --> 00:01:48,230 advance rate quarter way true, which for considering all the 23 00:01:48,230 --> 00:01:52,950 young players I draft like I've never been that high and the 24 00:01:52,950 --> 00:01:55,830 start of the year. So that's a great start for me. 25 00:01:56,310 --> 00:01:59,830 Yeah, how about you? It was the week 4:00. 26 00:01:59,830 --> 00:02:01,550 I definitely came back down to earth. 27 00:02:01,550 --> 00:02:05,860 A lot of my my players that have been running really hot earlier 28 00:02:05,860 --> 00:02:09,380 and I, I had some absurd advance rates earlier I was like over 29 00:02:09,380 --> 00:02:13,300 50% in the big board, which base rate for big board is 25%, 30 00:02:13,620 --> 00:02:17,220 that's three of 12, but still being 50% is absurd. 31 00:02:17,220 --> 00:02:21,540 And then basketball mania is always like high 20s and low 30s 32 00:02:21,540 --> 00:02:24,100 and I think in week three I was like low 30s or something when I 33 00:02:24,100 --> 00:02:27,740 had some crazy stuff go off. I think the A Chan game kind of 34 00:02:27,980 --> 00:02:30,310 boosted me up a bit there this week. 35 00:02:30,310 --> 00:02:35,950 I'm back down to like 25% across the portfolio between FFPC, 36 00:02:35,950 --> 00:02:39,350 underdog, DK. So pretty, pretty pleased with 37 00:02:39,350 --> 00:02:42,550 the with the 25%. And that's that's not counting 38 00:02:42,550 --> 00:02:46,830 the wonky advance rate stuff where you get like the 3/3 of 12 39 00:02:46,830 --> 00:02:49,590 advance or more than that, right? 40 00:02:49,670 --> 00:02:51,270 Right. Just in the normal advance rate 41 00:02:51,270 --> 00:02:53,110 structure stuff. Yeah. 42 00:02:53,190 --> 00:02:55,990 Yeah. It was is an interesting week 43 00:02:55,990 --> 00:02:59,720 for some of the players that I was most excited for, some of my 44 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:02,680 highest exposure guys, but I'm sure we'll we'll get into all 45 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:08,680 those here during the charts. Yeah, so that's a that's a 46 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:12,760 pretty firm instruction for me to get into these. 47 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:19,160 And so as always, we start off with our QB passing efficiency 48 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:23,040 and rushing production and so horizontal access. 49 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:24,760 We've got adjusted yards per temp. 50 00:03:25,550 --> 00:03:28,950 And pretty straightforward. The adjustment is to boost 51 00:03:29,270 --> 00:03:34,670 touchdowns and then take away for our punish interceptions. 52 00:03:34,950 --> 00:03:39,110 And so pretty intuitive like how well are they throwing the ball 53 00:03:39,270 --> 00:03:44,110 per attempt And we've got a touchdown rate and pretty 54 00:03:44,110 --> 00:03:46,430 straightforward. And then the size of the bubble 55 00:03:46,750 --> 00:03:50,830 of each player is there. They're rushing yards per game. 56 00:03:51,340 --> 00:03:54,980 With this one over here and being represented about what 100 57 00:03:54,980 --> 00:04:02,660 yards a game would look like, a lot of, a lot of the guys are 58 00:04:02,660 --> 00:04:06,580 hanging out near, you know, where they were in previous 59 00:04:06,580 --> 00:04:08,820 weeks. Right to to is still, you know 60 00:04:08,860 --> 00:04:12,180 blazing the trail as the most efficient quarterback, you know 61 00:04:12,180 --> 00:04:16,339 the looking like a very desirable quarterback to have in 62 00:04:16,339 --> 00:04:20,260 basketball and you know excited about his prospects going 63 00:04:20,260 --> 00:04:23,590 forward. Josh Allen had his his nuclear 64 00:04:23,590 --> 00:04:27,830 week that we were all waiting for this week and got himself 65 00:04:27,830 --> 00:04:30,230 moving in the right direction on the charts. 66 00:04:31,230 --> 00:04:33,670 One that I I thought was really interesting. 67 00:04:34,190 --> 00:04:37,110 And really I guess we we can talk about these two in tandem 68 00:04:37,110 --> 00:04:39,750 because they're in a pretty similar spot for adjusted yards 69 00:04:39,750 --> 00:04:42,310 per attempt. But that's Baker Mayfield and 70 00:04:42,310 --> 00:04:46,670 Josh Jobs, though. Both of them were entirely free 71 00:04:46,790 --> 00:04:48,790 in in basketball drafts all summer. 72 00:04:49,370 --> 00:04:53,130 You know Baker got drafted. At least some Josh Dobbs I don't 73 00:04:53,130 --> 00:04:57,130 think got drafted hardly at all. I haven't looked at at the 74 00:04:57,130 --> 00:05:01,010 underdog data on who was actually. 75 00:05:01,130 --> 00:05:04,050 Right, there's no chance he's drafted, just cuz he wasn't. 76 00:05:04,050 --> 00:05:07,410 He wasn't even on the Cardinals until like 2 weeks before the 77 00:05:07,410 --> 00:05:10,090 season. But obviously lots of drafts do 78 00:05:10,090 --> 00:05:14,170 happen in that two weeks. So if you were in any Super Flex 79 00:05:14,170 --> 00:05:18,610 drafts may maybe particularly the Super Flex 2 and FFBC. 80 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:23,080 With the benefit of that news and and you were taking Dobbs 81 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,880 that that's a clear, clear smash there. 82 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:28,320 Yeah. The interesting thing about 83 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:33,560 Dobbs is if you look at the size of his data point here, he's 84 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:37,680 he's rushing a good bit, right? Like he's he's rivaling Jalen 85 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:41,320 Hertz, you know, not quite to the level of Anthony Richardson 86 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:44,280 or Lamar Jackson. But he is a quarterback where 87 00:05:44,280 --> 00:05:48,000 rushing is a part of his game. So that's very intriguing. 88 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:51,880 Definitely a guy that I'm interested in in resurrection, 89 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:53,920 assuming that. He's on, Yeah, 200 ADP. 90 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:57,520 He's on a 200 ADP. Okay. 91 00:05:57,720 --> 00:05:59,520 Very priority target there, right? 92 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:04,040 Yeah, I would be smashing that. I feel pretty confident the 93 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:07,720 market corrects that ADP. Yeah, for sure. 94 00:06:08,530 --> 00:06:10,970 And really what you're playing for with him there is you're 95 00:06:10,970 --> 00:06:14,250 just saying Kyler doesn't get healthy this season or if he 96 00:06:14,250 --> 00:06:17,330 does, like they just don't play him and it's that's risky. 97 00:06:17,330 --> 00:06:18,330 Oh, yeah, yeah. Sorry. 98 00:06:18,530 --> 00:06:22,570 That's a great point. I forgot about that, Kyler, it's 99 00:06:22,570 --> 00:06:26,090 it's risky to play into that. But I mean these are giant field 100 00:06:26,090 --> 00:06:28,730 lottery style tournaments like you're gonna have to take some 101 00:06:28,730 --> 00:06:31,250 risk. And I I think what you get from 102 00:06:31,250 --> 00:06:35,490 drafting Dobbs at his ADP is well worth the risk. 103 00:06:35,490 --> 00:06:38,500 You know in that and those outcomes where he's playing the 104 00:06:38,500 --> 00:06:40,980 whole season for you, that's awesome. 105 00:06:40,980 --> 00:06:44,020 Now he does fall into that category of he does have a 106 00:06:44,020 --> 00:06:47,500 slightly higher than you know, definitely a higher than average 107 00:06:47,500 --> 00:06:49,860 chance of not playing the most meaningful weeks. 108 00:06:50,420 --> 00:06:54,180 So I'm probably not wanting a huge exposure to Dobbs in the 109 00:06:54,220 --> 00:06:57,660 Resurrection portfolio, but I definitely think it's a guy 110 00:06:57,660 --> 00:07:01,220 worth taking some shots on. Yeah. 111 00:07:01,300 --> 00:07:02,640 And. Would you? 112 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:05,000 No. This is a a pair from the point 113 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:07,240 of sat chasing. But would you ever consider so 114 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:10,320 caller Murray, he's going at one pick 170. 115 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:15,640 Would you ever combine those into one team, or do you think 116 00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:19,400 that's just overthinking things? No, I just do one or the other. 117 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:22,440 I I think you could take some Kyler teams if you think that 118 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:27,870 he's gonna get right in play. But I guess, I guess there's 119 00:07:27,870 --> 00:07:29,910 really not a ton of value to be had. 120 00:07:29,910 --> 00:07:33,070 And I I was gonna say maybe I wait for like poor news on his 121 00:07:33,070 --> 00:07:36,510 recovery or like signal that the Cardinals might not play in and 122 00:07:36,510 --> 00:07:39,950 try to get him even cheaper. But it doesn't matter at that. 123 00:07:40,030 --> 00:07:42,750 At that cost, you're you're just trying to play the game of like 124 00:07:42,750 --> 00:07:46,510 I hit the parlay of having all of my late round picks be what? 125 00:07:46,590 --> 00:07:48,950 No. What if, Sorry, I'm I'm 126 00:07:48,950 --> 00:07:52,230 suggesting one of the one of the It's sort of. 127 00:07:52,270 --> 00:07:55,750 It's probably sort of dumb. But what if you combine, if you 128 00:07:55,750 --> 00:07:59,750 have color Murray and Josh Dobbs on the same team, right? 129 00:07:59,750 --> 00:08:01,350 Yeah, I was. I was picking up what you were 130 00:08:01,350 --> 00:08:04,790 putting down and I'm just OK, I'm passing on that. 131 00:08:04,830 --> 00:08:06,230 I I. Oh, you're just ignore. 132 00:08:06,390 --> 00:08:08,190 You're deliberately ignoring the question. 133 00:08:08,550 --> 00:08:10,390 No, no, I'm just saying I would not. 134 00:08:10,470 --> 00:08:12,190 Stop. I wouldn't do it. 135 00:08:12,230 --> 00:08:15,270 I I would. If I'm gonna draft one of them, 136 00:08:15,270 --> 00:08:18,150 I'm only drafting one of them. Yeah. 137 00:08:18,150 --> 00:08:21,670 I mean, I guess I could see the rationale in that. 138 00:08:21,670 --> 00:08:26,730 You're saying ohh I'm gonna have Dobbs and then only I guess if 139 00:08:26,730 --> 00:08:29,850 you're doing an only two QB build with Dobbs and Kyler that 140 00:08:29,850 --> 00:08:32,210 would be the only circumstance where I'd consider it. 141 00:08:33,890 --> 00:08:35,970 But then you're eating a zero in the bye week. 142 00:08:35,970 --> 00:08:37,570 It doesn't. It doesn't seem great to me. 143 00:08:37,570 --> 00:08:43,130 I'd rather have that extra dart on a late round player than 144 00:08:43,130 --> 00:08:47,730 allocate 2 spots to the same NFL teams quarterback, if that makes 145 00:08:47,730 --> 00:08:50,570 sense. And the Arizona Cardinals at 146 00:08:51,250 --> 00:08:52,250 that, Yeah. Yeah. 147 00:08:53,110 --> 00:08:55,590 But totally, totally, totally makes sense. 148 00:08:56,070 --> 00:09:00,230 And one thing that I think is interesting as well is that is, 149 00:09:00,630 --> 00:09:04,990 is Jordan Love. He did come in quite a bit and 150 00:09:04,990 --> 00:09:10,350 he he did a feature in an island game where until garbage time 151 00:09:10,430 --> 00:09:13,990 played pretty garbage. Yeah. 152 00:09:13,990 --> 00:09:16,950 So it does seem it does seem like a lot of his early season 153 00:09:16,950 --> 00:09:21,070 stuff was some kind of low sample because I remember week 154 00:09:21,070 --> 00:09:24,230 1. A big chunk of his yards were 155 00:09:24,230 --> 00:09:26,070 like Aaron Jones after the catch. 156 00:09:26,670 --> 00:09:30,070 He had the tree touchdown games, definitely. 157 00:09:30,070 --> 00:09:31,790 Yeah. I'm. 158 00:09:31,830 --> 00:09:35,590 I feel anyway, that the Love stuff now is sort of proven out 159 00:09:35,590 --> 00:09:38,910 to be pretty conclusively that he's he's not better than a 160 00:09:38,910 --> 00:09:43,230 mediocre NFL quarterback and he might be worse. 161 00:09:44,220 --> 00:09:48,020 I I agree with that. And he had, he had some of his 162 00:09:48,020 --> 00:09:50,540 weapons back this week. You know, you didn't get full 163 00:09:50,580 --> 00:09:52,700 Aaron Jones usage. You didn't get full Christian 164 00:09:52,700 --> 00:09:57,940 Watson usage, but you had some snaps from them and this was the 165 00:09:57,940 --> 00:10:00,940 worst offenses looked, you know, out of all the weeks. 166 00:10:00,940 --> 00:10:05,220 So yeah, not, not super bullish on Love going forward, but 167 00:10:05,220 --> 00:10:08,740 definitely 8. In resurrection, that seems way 168 00:10:09,460 --> 00:10:12,160 huge. And see, that's just the market 169 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:15,920 anchors a guy to, you know, their prior from, you know, week 170 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:17,640 two, week 3. And they're like, Oh my gosh, 171 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:19,440 he's crushing. Look how good he's doing. 172 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:22,920 I I think a big part of it is people are just like sorting by 173 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:26,160 total fantasy points on the season and looking at guys, 174 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:29,400 they're like, Oh my gosh, Jordan Love is QB 7 or whatever. 175 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:33,560 And they're like, well, I'm gonna draft him early, but like 176 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:36,840 the rest of the season, Baker Mayfield or Jordan Love who you 177 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:39,040 like. And. 178 00:10:40,380 --> 00:10:48,620 I think that's actually sort of close and probably probably 179 00:10:48,660 --> 00:10:54,660 slight favorite Jordan Love, but like, so, so, so, like. 180 00:10:56,140 --> 00:10:59,460 I think that even with some rough games, he'll hold on to 181 00:10:59,460 --> 00:11:05,020 his job much easier than Mayfield and they're probably 182 00:11:05,020 --> 00:11:07,780 similar caliber players at this point. 183 00:11:07,780 --> 00:11:10,270 I think. Interesting, I I think it's 184 00:11:10,270 --> 00:11:14,550 Baker going away and I think he is a better passer than Love. 185 00:11:14,630 --> 00:11:17,350 And I think the bench risk for Baker Mayfield is like 186 00:11:17,630 --> 00:11:21,270 substantially lower than we initially had estimated. 187 00:11:21,670 --> 00:11:23,710 He's been playing well for these weeks. 188 00:11:23,710 --> 00:11:27,070 You know, he's not just like stringing it together and like 189 00:11:27,070 --> 00:11:31,670 not getting himself bench. He's playing well and I right 190 00:11:31,670 --> 00:11:34,350 now. Correct, correct. 191 00:11:34,350 --> 00:11:35,670 But we. Do you think he's gonna play? 192 00:11:35,910 --> 00:11:39,340 Do you think we've seen enough? That we can just say that hey 193 00:11:39,940 --> 00:11:42,900 Baker Mayfield is going to have a good season this year. 194 00:11:44,180 --> 00:11:48,780 I I would bet on that outcome more than I'd want to bet on the 195 00:11:48,820 --> 00:11:52,100 outcome of him not having a a good season. 196 00:11:52,220 --> 00:11:56,780 He never he never has really had a great opportunity or great 197 00:11:56,780 --> 00:11:58,940 situation to thrive his whole career. 198 00:11:58,940 --> 00:12:03,100 He's never had really is his first competent offensive 199 00:12:03,100 --> 00:12:06,290 coordinator with Sean McVeigh and he, you know, learned the 200 00:12:06,290 --> 00:12:09,770 playbook on the flight over, you know, like that. 201 00:12:09,810 --> 00:12:11,490 That was it. He's never had the same 202 00:12:11,490 --> 00:12:13,570 offensive coordinator for more than a season. 203 00:12:13,970 --> 00:12:17,850 He was in the Hugh Jackson, you know, awful situation. 204 00:12:18,170 --> 00:12:22,690 Like I just, I think that he's been a victim of circumstance 205 00:12:22,690 --> 00:12:24,730 more than anything. And I don't think he's some 206 00:12:24,730 --> 00:12:29,170 world beater. But like if you told me Baker 207 00:12:29,170 --> 00:12:34,060 Mayfield is about the same level of quarterback in the NFL as 208 00:12:34,060 --> 00:12:36,980 Jared Goff is by the end of this season, I wouldn't be super 209 00:12:36,980 --> 00:12:43,740 surprised by that. Yeah but and so just to play 210 00:12:43,740 --> 00:12:47,100 devil's I've got a little bit here and I I wouldn't have 211 00:12:47,220 --> 00:12:52,620 considered them and but who's the quarterback You just said 212 00:12:53,060 --> 00:12:56,580 Jared Goff. Jared Goff and I I wouldn't be 213 00:12:56,580 --> 00:13:00,650 surprised if. Actually, I wouldn't classify 214 00:13:00,650 --> 00:13:02,010 that as a particularly high buyer. 215 00:13:02,810 --> 00:13:04,890 No, no. But I'm just saying, like for 216 00:13:04,890 --> 00:13:07,890 hey, fantasy relevant, this is a quarterback that we should be 217 00:13:07,890 --> 00:13:10,130 drafting. I mean, what did you say Baker's 218 00:13:10,130 --> 00:13:16,770 resurrection ADP is? And it's probably super late. 219 00:13:16,850 --> 00:13:21,030 So Baker is 166. Yeah. 220 00:13:21,030 --> 00:13:24,390 So like, how are we taking Kyler Murray at the same spot as Baker 221 00:13:24,390 --> 00:13:26,270 Mayfield? And we're taking Jordan Love 222 00:13:26,270 --> 00:13:28,070 like 5 rounds ahead of Baker Mayfield. 223 00:13:28,070 --> 00:13:29,070 That doesn't make any sense. Ohh. 224 00:13:29,150 --> 00:13:31,630 Yeah, yeah. That in. 225 00:13:31,670 --> 00:13:36,190 Resurrection I'm I think. I think they're super close. 226 00:13:36,190 --> 00:13:39,830 I think Love and and Mayfield are really close. 227 00:13:40,110 --> 00:13:45,390 My my argument isn't that like it isn't necessary that I know 228 00:13:45,390 --> 00:13:49,110 that Mayfield will will play bad. 229 00:13:49,950 --> 00:13:54,310 Just like I think that like if he's pretty even even if he's 230 00:13:54,310 --> 00:13:59,790 close to like an average player and and and I think he's 231 00:13:59,790 --> 00:14:02,990 probably slightly below average. You do have these in season 232 00:14:02,990 --> 00:14:07,510 variances where like they can have a stretch of of of bad 233 00:14:07,510 --> 00:14:12,950 games and and and I I I guess I would be a little bit weary that 234 00:14:14,390 --> 00:14:17,070 Mayfield can wetter data that stretch. 235 00:14:17,930 --> 00:14:21,410 Without getting, yeah. Without getting benched, yeah, 236 00:14:21,410 --> 00:14:24,370 I'm just, I'm looking at his PFF numbers for this week. 237 00:14:24,370 --> 00:14:29,050 I mean I know he had a a good week this week, but you know 78% 238 00:14:29,050 --> 00:14:32,130 completion percentage, 86.2 accuracy percent. 239 00:14:32,650 --> 00:14:36,090 Like he's he's putting the ball where it needs to be and he's 240 00:14:36,530 --> 00:14:39,410 he's letting his good receivers you know make plays. 241 00:14:39,410 --> 00:14:42,450 He he's targeting Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and that's all we 242 00:14:42,450 --> 00:14:44,810 really want. Also, the reason I like it a lot 243 00:14:44,810 --> 00:14:48,690 for fantasy to to talk less from like a overall NFL perspective, 244 00:14:48,930 --> 00:14:51,490 yeah, is that offense is so concentrated, right? 245 00:14:51,490 --> 00:14:55,210 It's like you know who the guys are that it's going to be Mike 246 00:14:55,210 --> 00:14:58,770 Evans or Chris Godwin. And like you can probably throw 247 00:14:58,770 --> 00:15:01,850 a dart on K dot and to get some targets and maybe a random 248 00:15:01,850 --> 00:15:03,370 touchdown in the week that you need it. 249 00:15:03,370 --> 00:15:05,730 But, like, it's Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and that's like, 250 00:15:05,970 --> 00:15:08,850 all you really want to draft out of this offense, So. 251 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,320 Yeah, yeah, that that that makes sense for sure. 252 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:18,680 And I think that the bet of Baker Mayfield's being good 253 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:22,640 enough that he can sustain fantasy players. 254 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:26,960 It is so clearly proven out and especially with the 255 00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:31,400 concentration that you talked about how cheap they are or or 256 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:36,200 where and I I I think that makes a lot of sense. 257 00:15:37,690 --> 00:15:41,330 But moving on from Baker because this is not the the Baker 258 00:15:41,330 --> 00:15:45,250 Mayfield podcast. This is stat chasing someone who 259 00:15:45,250 --> 00:15:47,170 is who is better than Baker Mayfield. 260 00:15:47,970 --> 00:15:50,850 I mean we can just call it he's Andrew Luck now basically is CJ 261 00:15:50,850 --> 00:15:53,890 Stroud. He's he's been awesome. 262 00:15:54,050 --> 00:15:58,290 He's been very very good. He's elevating the receivers 263 00:15:58,290 --> 00:16:02,530 around him like, and to be fair to Nico Collins, he's never 264 00:16:02,530 --> 00:16:06,450 really had competent quarterback play for his entire career. 265 00:16:06,450 --> 00:16:10,970 But with CJ Stroud now and Nico Collins is delivering legitimate 266 00:16:10,970 --> 00:16:14,810 Spike weeks like weak, winning performances. 267 00:16:15,610 --> 00:16:19,370 So that's really exciting. What are your thoughts on? 268 00:16:19,570 --> 00:16:23,490 Like, where does Stroud fall rest of season as a fantasy 269 00:16:23,490 --> 00:16:28,810 quarterback? I think that he's now basically 270 00:16:28,850 --> 00:16:34,430 a strong pocket passer. With and and he does he's not a 271 00:16:34,430 --> 00:16:40,110 zero in the in the rushing game but he doesn't add a lot and but 272 00:16:40,110 --> 00:16:45,910 he's a pretty strong pocket passer and so with that you you 273 00:16:45,910 --> 00:16:49,350 will definitely get games like we've had where extremely 274 00:16:49,350 --> 00:16:53,830 efficient extremely productive and then his receiver score 275 00:16:53,830 --> 00:16:59,550 points and and that definitely and but I I think we've said 276 00:16:59,550 --> 00:17:01,650 this. We've been saying this a while 277 00:17:01,650 --> 00:17:05,450 or or ever since that we started at the podcast this season. 278 00:17:05,450 --> 00:17:13,050 Texans players are are strong targets and I do I do note that 279 00:17:13,849 --> 00:17:17,210 the market has reacted pretty strongly to that and Nico 280 00:17:17,210 --> 00:17:26,010 Collins now an ADP of 58, Tank Dale 71 and CJ Stroud 106 and 281 00:17:26,450 --> 00:17:28,890 can that can definitely see room for them to. 282 00:17:30,100 --> 00:17:35,420 To beat that still and but I think now you're you're getting 283 00:17:35,420 --> 00:17:40,420 into the territory now of like having to ask yourself is CJ 284 00:17:40,420 --> 00:17:42,580 Straud just in in his rookie year? 285 00:17:43,180 --> 00:17:48,420 Is he just a very good pocket passer or do we think CJ Stroud 286 00:17:48,420 --> 00:17:53,940 is like is there the potential that he could on the trajectory 287 00:17:53,940 --> 00:17:56,300 to be like basically one of the best quarterbacks of all time, 288 00:17:56,940 --> 00:17:58,640 Right. Yeah, but. 289 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:02,200 It's like if you're asking him to, if you're asking him to 290 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:07,320 sustain this like you said that, that basically means that he's 291 00:18:07,360 --> 00:18:10,080 he's he, he's like one of the best quarterbacks ever. 292 00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:14,120 And and and and that's almost That's. 293 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:19,680 You're almost needing that with Nico Collins at pick 58, I 294 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:23,200 think. Yeah, I mean, if he sustains 295 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:27,440 this, he's 1200, a little over 1200 yards through four games. 296 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:32,400 So you're you're talking just about 5000 yards as a rookie. 297 00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:37,040 He's got 6 touchdowns so far, so you're talking probably 25 plus 298 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:41,880 touchdowns, 0 interceptions and you know, adding a couple 100 299 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:45,960 rushing yards, like that's that is the greatest rookie 300 00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:48,320 quarterback season of all time, basically. 301 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:51,280 So that would be most quarterbacks best ever season, 302 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:53,040 right? Right. 303 00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:59,990 I so the way that I want to play this given given those Adp's you 304 00:18:59,990 --> 00:19:04,150 laid out for me here is I I probably don't want to come in 305 00:19:04,150 --> 00:19:09,110 super overweight on them and that just might be maybe I'm too 306 00:19:09,110 --> 00:19:12,110 anchored to the values that they were going at. 307 00:19:12,150 --> 00:19:18,190 But it's I I just don't I don't feel super confident that he can 308 00:19:18,190 --> 00:19:23,990 continue on this trajectory and I mean if he does it's it's an 309 00:19:23,990 --> 00:19:26,920 all time you know all time kind of season. 310 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:31,520 So I hate to I hate to be out on him. 311 00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:34,560 It's such an exciting story. I I like the player. 312 00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:38,720 I it's very fun but I'm just worried that the market might be 313 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,560 getting a little overconfident that he keeps up this 314 00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:44,400 trajectory. So it definitely will be an 315 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:46,840 interesting player to watch for this season. 316 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,200 He's he's one of my favorite storylines for sure. 317 00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:55,120 And I know in in some in some of this sort of advanced metrics. 318 00:19:55,690 --> 00:20:01,770 As a college player he was basically always a 99100% tall 319 00:20:02,410 --> 00:20:05,810 pastor all true college and and that's what the benefit of the 320 00:20:05,810 --> 00:20:10,210 great Ohio State receivers and and and and all the other 321 00:20:10,210 --> 00:20:16,610 players and but the reason I mentioned that is obviously not 322 00:20:16,610 --> 00:20:22,130 every like elite college player becomes an an all time NFL 323 00:20:22,130 --> 00:20:27,270 player and but. It's not like I I guess I'm 324 00:20:27,270 --> 00:20:30,470 saying that because it wouldn't be out of the blue for him to be 325 00:20:30,950 --> 00:20:35,630 basically Alzheimer and but I think if you're if you're sort 326 00:20:35,630 --> 00:20:39,750 of like where is your median expectation, it is for him to be 327 00:20:40,470 --> 00:20:48,150 a a good NFL pocket pass or QB. If not like like 5000 and yards 328 00:20:48,150 --> 00:20:52,830 and 32 sounds good. Especially not with the way the 329 00:20:52,830 --> 00:20:56,180 Texans are set up, like they don't have an offensive line and 330 00:20:56,180 --> 00:20:59,580 like I think the the weaponry there is still, it's still a bit 331 00:20:59,580 --> 00:21:04,500 questionable like the obviously it played very well to start, 332 00:21:04,620 --> 00:21:09,180 but I mean I'm not like considering Nico Collins is one 333 00:21:09,180 --> 00:21:14,700 of the best for receivers in the NFL or or would you disagree 334 00:21:14,700 --> 00:21:16,940 there? No, I I agree with you. 335 00:21:16,940 --> 00:21:20,660 Nico is not one of the best receivers in the NFL. 336 00:21:20,660 --> 00:21:23,140 He's making a case that he's he's gonna be. 337 00:21:24,220 --> 00:21:27,220 You know, if he's able to keep up the kind of production he's 338 00:21:27,220 --> 00:21:29,820 had, he's definitely gonna be going in the first three rounds 339 00:21:29,820 --> 00:21:31,580 next season, right? But I don't. 340 00:21:31,580 --> 00:21:34,100 I mean if if he's able to maintain this, he is one of the 341 00:21:34,100 --> 00:21:36,260 best. More or less, yeah. 342 00:21:37,980 --> 00:21:42,740 But so let let's just to kind of get a comparison for CJ Stroud 343 00:21:43,300 --> 00:21:46,580 and what you expect from him rest of season and maybe what 344 00:21:46,980 --> 00:21:51,220 his his mean outcome looks like? CJ Stroud or Trevor Lawrence? 345 00:21:51,220 --> 00:21:54,340 Who do you want rest of season as your fantasy quarterback? 346 00:21:55,980 --> 00:21:56,700 Trevor Lawrence. OK. 347 00:21:59,580 --> 00:22:03,980 And just because we we have a, we just have a little bit more 348 00:22:05,060 --> 00:22:10,620 sample size on on on on Trevor Lawrence with his Goodyear last 349 00:22:10,660 --> 00:22:15,260 year and obviously a little disappointing to start the year 350 00:22:15,940 --> 00:22:20,060 and but I think I would in Trevor Lawrence still. 351 00:22:21,140 --> 00:22:24,860 CJ Stroud or Deshaun Watson? Oh, CJ Stroud all day. 352 00:22:25,340 --> 00:22:28,580 OK, yeah, same. Were there any other 353 00:22:28,580 --> 00:22:31,140 quarterbacks? I feel like we didn't talk about 354 00:22:31,140 --> 00:22:36,380 a ton here, but the only other one that was a major mover is 355 00:22:36,380 --> 00:22:40,060 Justin Fields. And I feel like that's a little 356 00:22:40,060 --> 00:22:42,900 bit of an outlier because it was against the Broncos. 357 00:22:42,940 --> 00:22:47,610 And yeah, the Broncos defense. Looks like the spot to target 358 00:22:47,890 --> 00:22:51,570 this season. You know, I I'm certainly gonna 359 00:22:51,570 --> 00:22:56,890 be trying to target Broncos defense for as long as until 360 00:22:56,890 --> 00:22:59,450 they prove otherwise. The Broncos defense is who I 361 00:22:59,450 --> 00:23:04,570 want my players playing against and so I'm not sure if this was 362 00:23:04,570 --> 00:23:10,770 just a a product of facing the Broncos or if this was just in 363 00:23:10,770 --> 00:23:12,530 fields. Just getting more comfortable 364 00:23:12,530 --> 00:23:16,660 doing playing his game, not. Not trying to do what the 365 00:23:16,660 --> 00:23:19,900 coaching staff was asking of him where he he complained for the 366 00:23:19,900 --> 00:23:22,780 first couple weeks that he's having to do too much. 367 00:23:22,780 --> 00:23:26,140 He's he's very clearly slow getting through his reads. 368 00:23:26,140 --> 00:23:29,500 So maybe it's just more of he just needs to be a point and 369 00:23:29,500 --> 00:23:31,900 shoot kind of quarterback. Just I'm I'm gonna look for my 370 00:23:31,900 --> 00:23:33,580 one guy. He's not there. 371 00:23:34,260 --> 00:23:38,300 I'm just gonna realize the the play plays cannot be something 372 00:23:38,300 --> 00:23:42,500 where he's got to work through like 2-3, four progressions like 373 00:23:42,500 --> 00:23:44,740 it's not gonna work for his processing speed. 374 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:50,960 So I don't know if that's noise from this week or if it's gonna 375 00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:54,720 be that they figured they've more or less had a get right 376 00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:59,000 spot here and they kind of know now what's gonna be a little 377 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:00,520 more effective for him going forward. 378 00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:05,280 What do you think about that? I think that it's definitely 379 00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:10,040 like when you have an opponent that has just been like leaking 380 00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:14,120 points like the Broncos and him having a good day. 381 00:24:16,490 --> 00:24:20,090 If it doesn't feel like enough evidence given how much he 382 00:24:20,090 --> 00:24:27,090 struggled before that that he's now going to be that could have 383 00:24:27,090 --> 00:24:31,370 a passer and and and get scored that much many points going 384 00:24:31,370 --> 00:24:33,010 forward. I yeah. 385 00:24:33,010 --> 00:24:37,970 I think the main path to Justin Fields fantasy production is him 386 00:24:37,970 --> 00:24:44,860 rushing more often than he has been and and I think, yeah 387 00:24:44,860 --> 00:24:51,300 that's probably still likely to happen and so I'm definitely I'm 388 00:24:51,300 --> 00:24:53,740 definitely interested in in Fields at a discount. 389 00:24:53,740 --> 00:24:57,220 Let me let me look up on his His ADP. 390 00:24:58,380 --> 00:25:06,180 And his ADP in resurrection is now 87 and that's the fields. 391 00:25:06,460 --> 00:25:09,940 Fields versus Stroud would be like a legitimate decision. 392 00:25:09,940 --> 00:25:12,820 In fact, you'd you'd have to be like consciously taking fields 393 00:25:12,820 --> 00:25:15,830 over Stroud. If you're just going on ADP 394 00:25:15,990 --> 00:25:21,550 right now these like 2 rounds ahead of Stroud and and I think 395 00:25:24,310 --> 00:25:29,590 the the only risk I think and is is that like when they've been 396 00:25:29,630 --> 00:25:34,790 asked hey are you commit are you committed now to Fields as 397 00:25:34,790 --> 00:25:38,670 you're as you started going forward they it it does seem 398 00:25:38,670 --> 00:25:42,310 like they've been a little bit hesitant to say that but I think 399 00:25:43,060 --> 00:25:47,780 with with the potential for for the massive rushing upside that 400 00:25:47,780 --> 00:25:52,700 you get from Fields that does put them ahead of Stroud and 401 00:25:55,220 --> 00:25:58,780 Stroud is probably is definitely or or seems quite likely to be a 402 00:25:58,780 --> 00:26:02,860 better player and but the the rushing production that you can 403 00:26:02,860 --> 00:26:07,140 get from Fields it's just rushing as a quarterback it's 404 00:26:07,140 --> 00:26:13,240 just get so many more points than than yeah unless you're 405 00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:18,520 Peyton Manning as a pastor it just it's so it's so hard for 406 00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:22,360 the pocket pastors to outproduce in fantasy the the the Russian 407 00:26:22,360 --> 00:26:25,480 guys. Yeah, absolutely. 408 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,040 One other guy that I wanted to note before we move on from 409 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,800 quarterbacks, the Derek Carr injury. 410 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:34,960 And we'll we'll see the trickle down effects of this in the next 411 00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,880 couple charts. But the Derek Carr injury looked 412 00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,120 like it really hampered his ability. 413 00:26:40,670 --> 00:26:45,990 To actually deliver the ball downfield accurately, I know 414 00:26:45,990 --> 00:26:48,870 Olave had just a gang at air yards. 415 00:26:48,870 --> 00:26:52,790 He's like 154 air yards this week, but just couldn't, 416 00:26:52,910 --> 00:26:54,670 couldn't connect, couldn't, couldn't put it on him 417 00:26:54,670 --> 00:26:56,710 accurately. He had some intermediate. 418 00:26:57,190 --> 00:26:59,710 I watched the game, he had some intermediate passes where he was 419 00:26:59,710 --> 00:27:02,830 able to find, you know, Michael Thomas and the intermediate and 420 00:27:03,190 --> 00:27:05,350 had some Rasheed, Shaheed stuff that worked out. 421 00:27:06,070 --> 00:27:09,430 But a lot of it was just the little dink and dunk underneath 422 00:27:09,430 --> 00:27:12,600 stuff. I'm concerned this continues for 423 00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:17,960 a couple weeks just if it's a A/C joint sprain. 424 00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,440 I believe that's what it was. Is that correct? 425 00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:26,000 Yeah, that sounds right. But if that's what it is, I 426 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:29,120 think that's gonna be a couple week kind of injury and so I 427 00:27:29,120 --> 00:27:34,960 would be a little hesitant. In investing specifically in the 428 00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:38,280 receiver, I mean really just any, any receiving option on the 429 00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:41,920 Saints that's operating beyond the very, very short areas of 430 00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:46,320 the field for the next few weeks, especially as like a 431 00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:49,400 ceiling play you you might be able to get some moderate 432 00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:52,880 production from you know Michael Thomas and Alvin Kumar and stuff 433 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,720 like that. But I'm, I'm less excited about 434 00:27:55,720 --> 00:28:05,390 Olave for the next couple weeks and so I think it's an A/C joint 435 00:28:05,390 --> 00:28:11,150 sprain and we're just entering week 5 this week and then the 436 00:28:11,150 --> 00:28:15,230 following week will be week 6, the first week of resurrection 437 00:28:15,550 --> 00:28:17,790 and then week 7 and and so and so forth. 438 00:28:18,350 --> 00:28:23,790 So I mean maybe I'm leading the witness here but I I think that 439 00:28:23,990 --> 00:28:28,150 there's enough of the chance that he's that car is arrested 440 00:28:28,230 --> 00:28:33,070 or recovered from this injury, this shoulder injury to to maybe 441 00:28:33,270 --> 00:28:38,190 make the overall seasonal impact on a lava pretty minimal or or 442 00:28:38,310 --> 00:28:39,710 would you just would you disagree? 443 00:28:40,630 --> 00:28:43,550 In the In the context of resurrection, I think the way 444 00:28:43,550 --> 00:28:45,510 that I would be playing it, I haven't. 445 00:28:45,670 --> 00:28:47,190 Who do the Saints play this week? 446 00:28:47,230 --> 00:28:48,710 Do you have that off the top of your head? 447 00:28:49,670 --> 00:28:54,350 I do not know that at the top of my head and but it's the week 448 00:28:54,350 --> 00:28:58,710 after this that it's the the booking, no booking years, who 449 00:28:58,710 --> 00:29:03,150 or who they played already and it's the patrons. 450 00:29:03,630 --> 00:29:05,910 Okay. So what I think I want to do for 451 00:29:05,910 --> 00:29:11,230 car is I want to draft No Car right now for this week. 452 00:29:11,230 --> 00:29:15,150 I want to wait until they play the Patriots. 453 00:29:15,350 --> 00:29:17,990 He is not able to push the ball downfield again. 454 00:29:17,990 --> 00:29:22,190 He puts up a lackluster fantasy performance and then I want to 455 00:29:22,190 --> 00:29:26,000 load up as much. Saints as I'm trying to have in 456 00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:28,080 My Portfolio, if I'm trying to be even with the field, I'm 457 00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:29,920 trying to get even with the field if I'm trying to be over 458 00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:33,080 and getting over. But I'm doing that after this 459 00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:38,520 next week because I I'm willing to make the bet that it's a game 460 00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:41,960 that the market overreacts to and you get those two data 461 00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:45,720 points strung together back-to-back of bad, bad passing 462 00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,040 game for Derek Carr and bad game for Chris Olave. 463 00:29:49,010 --> 00:29:51,730 You you get some maybe maybe fourth round. 464 00:29:51,730 --> 00:29:54,930 Chris Olave. That sounds pretty pretty 465 00:29:55,210 --> 00:29:58,250 enticing to me. So I I think that's the way that 466 00:29:58,250 --> 00:30:02,770 I'm playing car for Resurrection, that that makes 467 00:30:02,770 --> 00:30:04,890 sense for sure. That makes sense for sure. 468 00:30:05,250 --> 00:30:09,530 And then obviously, yeah, probably wouldn't be starting a 469 00:30:09,530 --> 00:30:12,130 car in like sort of seasonal and stuff anyway. 470 00:30:12,610 --> 00:30:15,410 And well, are are you benching at Olave this week? 471 00:30:17,610 --> 00:30:23,370 I I really hate benching my I had A at a team where I had the 472 00:30:23,370 --> 00:30:26,610 decision believe my options were it was a J. 473 00:30:26,610 --> 00:30:30,290 Brown Christian Kirk Keenan Allen Garrett Wilson. 474 00:30:30,370 --> 00:30:34,250 Last week I could only start three of them and I ended up 475 00:30:34,250 --> 00:30:37,090 benching Garrett Wilson. And I hate. 476 00:30:37,170 --> 00:30:39,410 I just absolutely hate doing stuff like that. 477 00:30:39,410 --> 00:30:43,170 I just want to usually I don't even care that the quarterback 478 00:30:43,170 --> 00:30:45,970 situation is bad or the matchup is bad or whatever. 479 00:30:45,970 --> 00:30:50,090 I just. I want to play my studs and but 480 00:30:50,090 --> 00:30:55,050 I benched Garrett Wilson and going into that game against the 481 00:30:55,050 --> 00:30:56,490 Chiefs, I was feeling pretty good about it. 482 00:30:56,490 --> 00:30:58,690 You know, Christian Kirk got a ton of targets. 483 00:30:58,690 --> 00:31:01,330 Keenan Allen, like I was never benching Keenan after what he's 484 00:31:01,330 --> 00:31:03,170 done. And with Eckler still out, even 485 00:31:03,170 --> 00:31:05,570 though it was a little bit of a down week for him, he kind of 486 00:31:05,570 --> 00:31:07,330 saved it with the touchdown. Of course, A.J. 487 00:31:07,330 --> 00:31:10,450 Brown has that explosion game, so I'm feeling like the smartest 488 00:31:10,450 --> 00:31:12,730 man in the world. And then Zach Wilson comes out. 489 00:31:12,770 --> 00:31:14,930 He's a competent quarterback. He's. 490 00:31:15,580 --> 00:31:18,740 I I think all the all that chewing out he got on the 491 00:31:18,740 --> 00:31:22,420 sidelines from Garrett Wilson in the last week, he's like, dude, 492 00:31:22,620 --> 00:31:26,060 you need to get me the ball. I believe that had a lasting 493 00:31:26,060 --> 00:31:29,980 effect on the young man because he was he was very focused on 494 00:31:29,980 --> 00:31:31,420 getting the ball to Garrett Wilson. 495 00:31:31,420 --> 00:31:35,060 So a little little encouraging going forward there. 496 00:31:35,380 --> 00:31:38,460 But as far as benching A lave, that's that's a real roundabout 497 00:31:38,460 --> 00:31:41,540 way to get back to this. But as far as benching A lave, I 498 00:31:41,540 --> 00:31:43,420 probably don't do it unless I have. 499 00:31:44,260 --> 00:31:49,020 That type of really, really good option, a great alternative over 500 00:31:49,020 --> 00:31:52,260 Olave like I described there, where like I could comfortably 501 00:31:52,500 --> 00:31:55,340 play Christian, curb over him and feel good about that. 502 00:31:55,420 --> 00:31:58,340 Have those other better receivers my wide receiver 503 00:31:58,340 --> 00:32:01,820 wanted to. That makes sense for sure. 504 00:32:01,900 --> 00:32:06,100 That makes sense for sure. So we're hoping that their car 505 00:32:06,100 --> 00:32:10,630 is not. We expect that their car will 506 00:32:10,630 --> 00:32:18,150 still be not 100% healthy against Patriots and but still 507 00:32:18,150 --> 00:32:21,750 still interested beyond that and and and hope to create that 508 00:32:21,750 --> 00:32:26,630 exposure after a dip and following a week 5. 509 00:32:27,950 --> 00:32:31,750 Absolutely. So think, think, that's a a good 510 00:32:33,070 --> 00:32:37,900 jumping off point to move to our running back chart which is 511 00:32:37,900 --> 00:32:42,340 snaps and usage. And so this is rushing attempts, 512 00:32:43,020 --> 00:32:46,980 routes, pass blocking and run blocking all expressed as a 513 00:32:46,980 --> 00:32:49,180 percentage of the team's overall plays. 514 00:32:49,660 --> 00:32:54,020 And so Kyron Williams, you can see that he is on the field 515 00:32:54,500 --> 00:33:00,140 roughly speaking 80% of the time for the Rams and he is either 516 00:33:00,340 --> 00:33:04,380 getting a rush attempt or running a route just over 65% of 517 00:33:04,380 --> 00:33:10,440 plays which is the most of any eligible player. 518 00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:15,120 And I think no, no, it it's just the it's the highest of any 519 00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:23,280 running back this year. And then I guess the reason that 520 00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:28,040 we use routes is is because and and this was kind of a point 521 00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:32,440 Gretch made to me and Sam last year was that a lot of the time 522 00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:37,160 unless there are special special receiver so just CMC, a lot of 523 00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:39,280 running back targets is almost by accident. 524 00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:44,840 It's because the where the play was supposed to go and didn't 525 00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:48,240 work out and and then there's a running back a check down. 526 00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:52,080 And so the way that players can accumulate a lot of points, 527 00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:55,960 running backs can accumulate a lot of points from the being the 528 00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:59,400 beneficiary of those check downs is just being out in a route, in 529 00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:06,390 a route very often and and then and so that that's why we look 530 00:34:06,390 --> 00:34:09,949 at that and then we look at pass blocking because obviously it's 531 00:34:09,949 --> 00:34:13,870 not fantasy productive but it is useful to know that the team 532 00:34:13,870 --> 00:34:18,030 trusts them to to pass block when they're not running routes. 533 00:34:20,550 --> 00:34:24,270 Excellent explanation of the chart and what it shows here. 534 00:34:24,270 --> 00:34:28,270 And you know who was out and about on a lot of routes this 535 00:34:28,270 --> 00:34:34,800 week was Alvin Kamara He. Yeah, 13 targets, pretty absurd 536 00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:38,440 number. Definitely reminded me of the 537 00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:43,080 Naji Harris with Ben Roethlisberger's nude alarm kind 538 00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:47,760 of days and it's it kind of played out because of the same 539 00:34:48,159 --> 00:34:51,679 thing Derek Carr couldn't push the ball down field and like you 540 00:34:51,679 --> 00:34:55,080 said hey we we don't have a guy down the field that we're able 541 00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:56,800 to go to here. So what are we going to do? 542 00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:58,720 We're going to dump it off to the running back and. 543 00:34:59,370 --> 00:35:03,290 So Kamara's first game back immediately looks like he's in a 544 00:35:03,290 --> 00:35:07,050 very desirable role for fantasy. He wasn't terribly efficient, 545 00:35:07,610 --> 00:35:09,730 which we'll see on on our next charts. 546 00:35:10,650 --> 00:35:13,570 He he didn't make a ton out of all the opportunity that he got, 547 00:35:14,170 --> 00:35:18,610 but just getting that much opportunity is valuable and so 548 00:35:19,490 --> 00:35:22,250 definitely looks like a an interesting player going 549 00:35:22,250 --> 00:35:24,890 forward. A lot of the players on this 550 00:35:24,890 --> 00:35:30,670 chart, it's kind of, you know. Business as usual, so to speak. 551 00:35:30,870 --> 00:35:34,350 No major changes, but the ones that I did want to point out 552 00:35:34,350 --> 00:35:39,070 that I felt like were worth mentioning for situational 553 00:35:39,270 --> 00:35:42,670 changes. We did see Alexander Madison 554 00:35:42,670 --> 00:35:47,070 start to lose a little bit of opportunity to Cam makers, and 555 00:35:47,070 --> 00:35:50,550 Cam makers looked at least halfway decent. 556 00:35:50,670 --> 00:35:53,430 So. Concerning for Madison going 557 00:35:53,430 --> 00:35:57,070 forward, he did put together a better game than his really poor 558 00:35:57,070 --> 00:35:59,350 performances in the first couple weeks of the season. 559 00:36:00,190 --> 00:36:02,550 But that's just something to have on your radar. 560 00:36:03,390 --> 00:36:06,790 Maybe in a season long league if your league mates aren't super 561 00:36:06,790 --> 00:36:10,270 plugged in and you can trade Madison purely off the volume 562 00:36:10,310 --> 00:36:12,910 and he had a couple better games back-to-back. 563 00:36:13,670 --> 00:36:16,270 You might be able to package him with another player and go get 564 00:36:16,270 --> 00:36:19,510 someone whose role might be a little sticky or over the course 565 00:36:19,510 --> 00:36:21,710 of the season. I'm worried about him losing 566 00:36:22,270 --> 00:36:24,990 opportunity to Acres as the season goes on. 567 00:36:26,750 --> 00:36:32,510 The other one that I wanted to point out, Zach Moss is 568 00:36:32,550 --> 00:36:35,670 interesting because of the context of Jonathan Taylor 569 00:36:35,670 --> 00:36:38,030 coming back. So if you just. 570 00:36:38,490 --> 00:36:42,210 If you transplant the Jonathan Taylor talent into the role that 571 00:36:42,210 --> 00:36:44,650 Zack Moss is getting, which I don't think there's any reason 572 00:36:44,650 --> 00:36:48,330 to, you know, if they're using Zack Moss like this, there's no 573 00:36:48,330 --> 00:36:52,010 reason where if Jonathan Taylor's active and fully 574 00:36:52,010 --> 00:36:55,810 healthy, he's not getting at least this usage as well. 575 00:36:56,650 --> 00:36:59,810 And if he's getting this usage, he's, you know, in the top five 576 00:36:59,890 --> 00:37:03,410 backs as far as the opportunities he's getting in 577 00:37:03,410 --> 00:37:06,170 the league. And I would certainly say that 578 00:37:06,170 --> 00:37:08,310 JT. Is going to be more efficient 579 00:37:08,310 --> 00:37:11,350 than Saikwan, going to be more efficient than Kamara and going 580 00:37:11,350 --> 00:37:15,590 to be more efficient than Kyron. So you're looking at a guy that 581 00:37:15,910 --> 00:37:19,790 is his real only competition to be a better fantasy back would 582 00:37:19,790 --> 00:37:24,430 be Christian McCaffrey then. So that's certainly a very 583 00:37:24,430 --> 00:37:26,710 interesting situation to monitor. 584 00:37:27,590 --> 00:37:31,110 Drico did you have any guys on this chart that stood out to you 585 00:37:31,110 --> 00:37:36,380 this week And so just to just to I guess put in some color for 586 00:37:36,380 --> 00:37:42,740 the the Zach Moss comment. And so obviously with Anthony 587 00:37:42,740 --> 00:37:48,860 Richardson at quarterback there is not a lot of receiving roll 588 00:37:48,860 --> 00:37:54,900 or or or expected points to go around for running backs And and 589 00:37:54,900 --> 00:38:00,670 so within an offense like the cult, the cults, the the the 590 00:38:00,670 --> 00:38:05,550 back the the for a running back to actually have a good role 591 00:38:05,870 --> 00:38:10,430 they really need to sort of like condense they they need to 592 00:38:10,590 --> 00:38:12,230 basically have a stranglehold on it. 593 00:38:12,950 --> 00:38:18,110 And it's sort of like well if if Zack Moss can get a stranglehold 594 00:38:18,150 --> 00:38:22,670 on this role then and and and Dion what's his name Dion 595 00:38:22,670 --> 00:38:25,910 Jackson was able to do that in week one then John and Taylor 596 00:38:25,910 --> 00:38:31,910 should absolutely be able to do that And so I agree with you 597 00:38:31,910 --> 00:38:38,230 where and JT if JT is playing and full year and no worries 598 00:38:38,230 --> 00:38:41,510 about the the trade and the contract and stuff like that 599 00:38:42,870 --> 00:38:48,750 easily a first round value and probably yeah don't don't I'm 600 00:38:48,790 --> 00:38:51,870 not sure exactly what spot in the first round I would take him 601 00:38:52,310 --> 00:38:56,110 and I haven't gone through a player by player but easily 602 00:38:56,110 --> 00:39:00,890 first round value there and wouldn't wouldn't because or 603 00:39:00,890 --> 00:39:04,530 because we're expecting it to be so condensed would not worry so 604 00:39:04,530 --> 00:39:11,810 much about how do I say it about the the the lack of targets for 605 00:39:11,810 --> 00:39:15,370 Zach Moss and and and and for running backs generally in in 606 00:39:15,370 --> 00:39:19,850 mobile quarterback and offenses just because of that just 607 00:39:19,850 --> 00:39:25,730 because of how condensed it has been and and and how good JT has 608 00:39:25,730 --> 00:39:29,010 been. Yeah, well, well said. 609 00:39:29,010 --> 00:39:32,970 Good, good context there for the those routes. 610 00:39:32,970 --> 00:39:35,770 You know, you're not going to convert those two fantasy points 611 00:39:35,770 --> 00:39:39,850 in the same way that someone like even a Kyron Williams will, 612 00:39:39,850 --> 00:39:42,690 just because there he's going to get more of those actually 613 00:39:42,690 --> 00:39:48,290 converted into targets. The other other players here on 614 00:39:48,290 --> 00:39:52,170 this that I wanted to point out? Miles Sanders. 615 00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:57,280 Part of why his opportunity went down a little bit was he's he's 616 00:39:57,280 --> 00:40:00,760 dealing with that groin injury. So you did see more Chuba 617 00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:05,440 Hubbard this week. I'm not, I'm not certain that 618 00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:10,960 the backfield is something that you even really want part of for 619 00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:12,800 this offense. Gretch. 620 00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:17,240 Gretch talked about this this offseason where he was saying 621 00:40:17,240 --> 00:40:20,400 there's going to be more of these these haves and have nots 622 00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:22,080 in the NFL where there's going to be. 623 00:40:22,510 --> 00:40:25,590 Teams where there's just a lot of fantasy goodness to go around 624 00:40:25,590 --> 00:40:28,670 because they're good offenses, they're producing a lot, and 625 00:40:28,670 --> 00:40:32,550 there's gonna be teams where you just don't really want a part of 626 00:40:32,550 --> 00:40:34,270 it. And I think the Panthers are 627 00:40:34,270 --> 00:40:37,310 really shaping up to be a team that I don't want a part of. 628 00:40:38,830 --> 00:40:41,510 You know, I'm I'm happy with the Chuba that I got at the price 629 00:40:41,510 --> 00:40:44,950 that I got in because it's like I won't take a zero at running 630 00:40:44,950 --> 00:40:47,790 back some weeks because I'm gonna get like 6 to 8 points 631 00:40:47,790 --> 00:40:50,670 from Chuba. But not. 632 00:40:51,230 --> 00:40:56,150 I think the upside scenarios for pretty much all of those players 633 00:40:56,150 --> 00:41:00,030 on the Panthers look very bleak. I think we've probably already 634 00:41:00,030 --> 00:41:02,790 seen Adam Thielen's highest scoring game for the season, 635 00:41:03,630 --> 00:41:05,150 right? I just, yeah. 636 00:41:05,190 --> 00:41:07,030 Well, is it? He scored like 30 points or 637 00:41:07,030 --> 00:41:09,310 something like that. Yeah, I I don't, I don't think 638 00:41:09,310 --> 00:41:13,470 there's that's not an offense I really want to be going after. 639 00:41:13,470 --> 00:41:17,790 And so I just wanted to point out the the Miles Sanders little 640 00:41:17,830 --> 00:41:20,190 little decrease in roll there just for this week. 641 00:41:21,500 --> 00:41:22,140 Yeah. Yeah. 642 00:41:22,140 --> 00:41:25,820 No, that makes sense. And one thing that I struck me 643 00:41:25,820 --> 00:41:31,580 as interesting was that Kenneth Walker here who is on the field 644 00:41:31,660 --> 00:41:37,340 a little over 60% of the time and obviously very, very strong 645 00:41:37,340 --> 00:41:41,020 side of the year and you're happy with the discount that you 646 00:41:41,020 --> 00:41:46,180 got because of that Charbonne and and it's so I think it's 647 00:41:46,180 --> 00:41:50,980 sort of interesting that. Kenneth Walker hasn't quite held 648 00:41:51,580 --> 00:41:55,780 Charminet off and that Charminet is building up something. 649 00:41:55,900 --> 00:42:01,580 It's definitely feels like a 60406535 role in in Seattle. 650 00:42:02,140 --> 00:42:07,620 But what has what has been quite beneficial for Walker is that 651 00:42:07,980 --> 00:42:13,140 he's gotten a pretty good goal end role and and and that's been 652 00:42:13,220 --> 00:42:18,420 very helpful in in in his scoring points. 653 00:42:18,730 --> 00:42:24,410 And but I I do think it's like I I took a I took a decent amount 654 00:42:24,410 --> 00:42:29,290 of Walker and I I was happy Yeah I've been happy with the start 655 00:42:29,290 --> 00:42:37,890 of the year and but it feel it feels a little bit like and he 656 00:42:37,890 --> 00:42:42,250 really does have to hold on to that strong goal line role to 657 00:42:42,490 --> 00:42:44,610 continue to to to put up these points. 658 00:42:45,210 --> 00:42:47,570 I see that he's going out on a DP of 20. 659 00:42:48,090 --> 00:42:55,410 So the the discount on that kind of Walker is gone and and I I I 660 00:42:55,410 --> 00:42:56,930 really like kind of Walker the player. 661 00:42:56,930 --> 00:42:59,970 I've never I I've not really been concerned with the success 662 00:42:59,970 --> 00:43:05,290 rate stuff just because when he breaks a run it it's it lifts 663 00:43:05,290 --> 00:43:09,090 the offense so much and so never really been concerned with that 664 00:43:09,090 --> 00:43:15,050 sort of stuff but and then the I I guess just thinking through 665 00:43:15,050 --> 00:43:19,240 this as well and. The fact that he has actually 666 00:43:19,240 --> 00:43:24,320 been scoring touchdowns with his touchdown role, is it indication 667 00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:27,960 that he should keep it? And so maybe, yeah, maybe 668 00:43:28,360 --> 00:43:30,960 looking at that ADP of 20, maybe that's just sort of like 669 00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:35,080 efficient for tenant Walker now where where is Charbonnay going 670 00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:38,320 right now? Charbonnay is going up, pick 671 00:43:38,320 --> 00:43:43,280 113. I would be loading the bags with 672 00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:46,720 Charbonnay. Not that I think that you know 673 00:43:46,720 --> 00:43:50,280 he he's going to unseat Kenneth Walker for all of the 674 00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:52,960 opportunity. But he's been getting on the 675 00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:55,520 field more. He's shown he's a really 676 00:43:55,520 --> 00:43:58,520 physical runner. You know that that's that's what 677 00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:01,840 got Pete Carroll to put Chris Carson on the field so much, 678 00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:02,840 right. He's just like. 679 00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:06,720 He wants a guy who's happy to run his face into a grown man 680 00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:11,280 and and that Zach Sharpaday looks like he's very adept at 681 00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:15,840 that. So the contingent value seems 682 00:44:16,270 --> 00:44:20,510 incredible for Charbonnay and I I think that you also as the 683 00:44:20,510 --> 00:44:23,950 season progresses, even with Kenneth Walker healthy, you've 684 00:44:23,950 --> 00:44:28,830 got a lot of of paths where his standalone value increases Also 685 00:44:28,830 --> 00:44:33,030 just as being the the passing game back, you know it's being 686 00:44:33,030 --> 00:44:35,550 maybe being able to siphon always some of those goal line 687 00:44:35,550 --> 00:44:38,510 touches. So Charbonnay to me feels like 688 00:44:38,510 --> 00:44:42,830 the kind of player who's a DP should have increased and right. 689 00:44:42,830 --> 00:44:45,350 And it's just kind of sat where it did all summer. 690 00:44:45,350 --> 00:44:48,710 So that's a spot I'd attack aggressively if I were drafting 691 00:44:48,710 --> 00:44:53,230 in Resurrection. Another one that I I'm not sure 692 00:44:53,230 --> 00:44:56,790 where his Adp's at, but where I would be very interested in 693 00:44:56,790 --> 00:44:58,750 attacking aggressively is Isaiah Pacheco. 694 00:44:58,750 --> 00:45:00,310 Where where is he sitting right now? 695 00:45:01,590 --> 00:45:08,550 And give me one second and Pacheco is now going 75. 696 00:45:08,950 --> 00:45:12,750 Ohh so man I'm I'm smashing that I I'm pretty much hitting it all 697 00:45:12,750 --> 00:45:16,750 the way until like 50 I think would be efficient because what 698 00:45:16,750 --> 00:45:19,750 you're looking at is you're looking at a back who's starting 699 00:45:19,750 --> 00:45:23,470 to he's never he's never gonna consolidate all the work in that 700 00:45:23,470 --> 00:45:24,990 office. They're gonna they're gonna use 701 00:45:24,990 --> 00:45:28,870 McKinnon still they'll sprinkle in a little CEH you know just to 702 00:45:29,350 --> 00:45:32,110 to take some you know wear off of them. 703 00:45:32,710 --> 00:45:37,120 But he's looking like he's doing what they want out of the 704 00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:40,240 running back in their system. He's he's being utilized in the 705 00:45:40,240 --> 00:45:43,880 passing game as well and that's just an offense where we can 706 00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:47,920 expect them to score lots of fantasy points And so I I want 707 00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:51,160 that back. I I would be aggressively 708 00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:55,920 drafting Pacheco. I I would if I can get him you 709 00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:59,480 know at if it's pick 70 and he's on the. 710 00:45:59,560 --> 00:46:04,480 I mean, shoot, even like if it's pick 60 and he's on the board, 711 00:46:04,480 --> 00:46:07,860 I'm probably just taking him 100% of drafts. 712 00:46:07,860 --> 00:46:12,060 Like I would be that aggressive with it and you're gonna have 713 00:46:12,220 --> 00:46:17,620 he's to me, he kind of feels like diet Kenneth Walker in the 714 00:46:17,620 --> 00:46:21,740 Russian game but with with passing game upside, right and 715 00:46:21,740 --> 00:46:26,180 on a better offense, so. Yeah. 716 00:46:26,700 --> 00:46:28,660 Am I way off base here with Pacheco? 717 00:46:30,220 --> 00:46:35,260 So like you said he he is running routes and. 718 00:46:35,820 --> 00:46:39,300 And he does he does have the potential for the the Mahomes 719 00:46:39,300 --> 00:46:44,220 magic where he's dancing around somehow they don't cover Pacheco 720 00:46:44,220 --> 00:46:45,740 and then he runs for billionaires. 721 00:46:46,180 --> 00:46:49,340 He definitely has could definitely be the beneficiary of 722 00:46:49,340 --> 00:46:52,020 those plays. I don't see any real reason why 723 00:46:52,020 --> 00:46:58,820 not and and his his running, his rushing usage has definitely 724 00:46:58,820 --> 00:47:02,780 been trending up and I saw, I just see here that he. 725 00:47:04,110 --> 00:47:09,710 And obviously at 115 rushing yards and that was Sunday night 726 00:47:10,190 --> 00:47:15,350 and expected rushing yards of 84 so definitely got usage there 727 00:47:16,110 --> 00:47:22,910 and so definitely feels like the I I feel like this this chart 728 00:47:22,910 --> 00:47:27,190 sort of has them like appropriately placed where he's 729 00:47:27,190 --> 00:47:32,640 definitely the. He's got the plural plurality I 730 00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:38,160 got. You thank you of touches and in 731 00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:42,240 in the KC offense and but not not quite the the clear cut 732 00:47:42,240 --> 00:47:50,240 starter and and then I guess if he if he is able to get this 733 00:47:50,240 --> 00:47:55,600 sort of like goal line role which. 734 00:47:56,510 --> 00:47:59,390 He he's definitely he's definitely been favored on the 735 00:47:59,390 --> 00:48:07,950 goal line most recently his is it's well no not quite he he was 736 00:48:07,950 --> 00:48:11,350 favored on the goal line last week and then it's been it was 737 00:48:11,350 --> 00:48:14,710 sort of split between aside Pacheco and and Glide Edward 738 00:48:14,710 --> 00:48:17,990 Solaire. So I I don't know that this this 739 00:48:17,990 --> 00:48:22,790 one feels like it's much more of a hot hand backfield. 740 00:48:22,830 --> 00:48:25,350 Casey feels like much more of a hot hand backfield. 741 00:48:26,010 --> 00:48:30,690 Where and it could be different guys in different weeks to me 742 00:48:30,690 --> 00:48:35,010 anyway I agree with that I just think he's gonna be the hot hand 743 00:48:35,130 --> 00:48:39,330 more often than the other guys to enough that it's it's pretty 744 00:48:39,690 --> 00:48:42,610 pretty desirable. If you look at he's he's running 745 00:48:42,610 --> 00:48:47,610 you know at least 15 routes every game you know he's he's 746 00:48:47,610 --> 00:48:51,370 had four receptions one reception 2 receptions 3 747 00:48:51,370 --> 00:48:53,210 receptions. So he's he's consistently 748 00:48:53,210 --> 00:48:57,350 involved in the passing game. He's elusive. 749 00:48:57,510 --> 00:49:02,430 His his elusive rating has been fantastic the last two weeks and 750 00:49:02,430 --> 00:49:04,310 his attempts have climbed every week. 751 00:49:04,310 --> 00:49:10,430 He 8 attempts week 112 week 215 week 320 in week 4I. 752 00:49:11,710 --> 00:49:15,830 He's avoiding tackles at a high rate 28 avoided tackles Week 35 753 00:49:15,830 --> 00:49:21,110 avoided tackles week 4. To me, it's just this is what 754 00:49:21,230 --> 00:49:25,590 This is why people were excited to draft him last season and we 755 00:49:25,590 --> 00:49:27,710 started to see it come on down the stretch. 756 00:49:28,070 --> 00:49:32,950 And I think the lower usage in the first couple weeks might 757 00:49:32,950 --> 00:49:35,510 have been a factor of him not being fully healthy. 758 00:49:35,510 --> 00:49:38,870 You know, he had those injuries he was dealing with through camp 759 00:49:39,270 --> 00:49:42,710 and coming into the season. I think we might see him. 760 00:49:43,670 --> 00:49:45,830 I agree with you, it's it's going to be a high hand 761 00:49:45,830 --> 00:49:47,030 situation. There will be weeks where 762 00:49:47,030 --> 00:49:49,190 Mckinnon's the guy. I don't think there's going to 763 00:49:49,190 --> 00:49:51,430 be many weeks where Ch is the guy. 764 00:49:51,430 --> 00:49:54,150 Ch might be annoying and Rob, you have a touchdown here or 765 00:49:54,150 --> 00:49:58,790 there, but I think it's it's going to be, if I had to put my 766 00:49:58,790 --> 00:50:01,230 chips on one back in this backfield, it's going to be 767 00:50:01,230 --> 00:50:03,550 Pacheco. And I feel like that price is 768 00:50:03,550 --> 00:50:07,110 not, you're not capturing the upside correctly with that 769 00:50:07,110 --> 00:50:09,110 price. You know the good outcomes. 770 00:50:09,110 --> 00:50:13,150 For him, are very Casey or a kingmaker running back every 771 00:50:13,150 --> 00:50:17,150 year, like or not, every year, almost every year there's a KC 772 00:50:17,150 --> 00:50:20,430 running back that scores 30 points a game in in the most 773 00:50:20,430 --> 00:50:26,880 crucial weeks and. If it is Pacheco then 74 is is. 774 00:50:26,920 --> 00:50:33,560 It's not nearly high enough for that outcome so I I I definitely 775 00:50:33,560 --> 00:50:37,640 get what you're saying. My my hesitancy has always been 776 00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:41,680 like to pay for the expense of KC back, especially when I I'm 777 00:50:41,680 --> 00:50:45,960 not like in love with their talent but totally agree there 778 00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:50,000 are are are definitely outcomes where he is scoring a shit on a 779 00:50:50,000 --> 00:50:53,570 points every week. And 74 is is just a smash price 780 00:50:53,570 --> 00:50:55,770 from. So where does where does James 781 00:50:55,770 --> 00:50:58,650 Cook go relative to Pacheco? Because that's one that I 782 00:50:58,650 --> 00:51:01,690 think's worth comparing. Yeah, no that that is a good, 783 00:51:02,010 --> 00:51:06,690 good comparison. One second, and because Cook 784 00:51:06,690 --> 00:51:11,570 also has that annoying aspect of the backfield where it's not 785 00:51:11,570 --> 00:51:14,290 just the backs for him, it's also his quarterback. 786 00:51:14,290 --> 00:51:17,810 We'll steal some goal line stuff and then you have Latavius 787 00:51:17,810 --> 00:51:21,820 Murray inexplicably taking a bunch of routes this week and 788 00:51:21,980 --> 00:51:24,580 you know you have Damien Harris who will work in on the goal 789 00:51:24,580 --> 00:51:27,060 line and he he's also taking routes, so. 790 00:51:28,180 --> 00:51:34,140 So James Cook is going two rounds ahead of of Pacheco at 791 00:51:34,140 --> 00:51:36,740 pick 51. Seems like an incredible 792 00:51:36,740 --> 00:51:41,740 arbitrage opportunity to me. I would both both great offenses 793 00:51:41,900 --> 00:51:44,740 both you know backfields where you're going to have some 794 00:51:44,740 --> 00:51:49,380 frustration you know in some weeks where your guy you know 795 00:51:49,380 --> 00:51:53,300 you're your Pacheco, your James Cook gets some work vulture or 796 00:51:53,300 --> 00:51:55,060 doesn't get everything you think you should. 797 00:51:55,820 --> 00:52:00,300 But I right, I'd be aggressively hitting Pacheco until the market 798 00:52:00,820 --> 00:52:03,820 corrects on that. Yeah, that makes sense. 799 00:52:03,820 --> 00:52:06,860 That makes sense. I mean, I'm not. 800 00:52:06,860 --> 00:52:10,620 I'm not loving and James Cook could pick 450 there or like the 801 00:52:10,660 --> 00:52:17,960 start of the fifth round and. So it's it's very definitely 802 00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:21,720 very difficult for me to argue that he's a better pick than 803 00:52:22,760 --> 00:52:29,880 than Pacheco 2 rounds ahead of them and but to me that that's 804 00:52:29,880 --> 00:52:33,400 that's almost like and James Cook is is just too expensive 805 00:52:34,360 --> 00:52:39,880 gotcha any anyone else on this chart or should we move to the 806 00:52:39,880 --> 00:52:43,120 backups here. Yeah, let's, let's, I think we 807 00:52:43,120 --> 00:52:44,960 should move on to the backups here. 808 00:52:47,090 --> 00:52:52,850 So same chart except this time we're at the 25 to 40% at Reds 809 00:52:52,850 --> 00:52:56,410 plus rush attempts. So like sort of like your your 810 00:52:57,290 --> 00:53:03,770 your backups but still playing as like as not substantial but 811 00:53:03,770 --> 00:53:10,260 meaningful amount of stamps. Yeah the the Broncos backfield 812 00:53:10,260 --> 00:53:14,580 going to be frustrating with the the Javante Williams injury 813 00:53:14,780 --> 00:53:17,300 you're you're just going to end up you're going to get Julian 814 00:53:17,300 --> 00:53:21,580 McLaughlin opportunities and the Javante injury didn't sound 815 00:53:21,820 --> 00:53:24,260 overly serious. He's going to miss a ton of time 816 00:53:24,820 --> 00:53:27,460 but I bet you the team's real careful with them coming back 817 00:53:27,580 --> 00:53:29,500 right. You've already got the knee that 818 00:53:29,500 --> 00:53:30,780 you're going to be concerned about. 819 00:53:30,780 --> 00:53:33,340 You just you don't want any compensation injuries. 820 00:53:33,340 --> 00:53:35,740 You want to, you want to protect your player. 821 00:53:36,520 --> 00:53:40,520 So I would anticipate that this backfield just becomes a three 822 00:53:40,520 --> 00:53:44,400 headed monster. Really unfun for fantasy. 823 00:53:45,720 --> 00:53:48,720 You know, I'm there, there could be production. 824 00:53:48,720 --> 00:53:54,240 But right now it's just, I mean, Jalil McLaughlin produced great 825 00:53:54,240 --> 00:53:57,440 this last week, but I just, I worry that when it's it's all 826 00:53:57,440 --> 00:54:01,480 three of them, is there really going to be enough pie to go 827 00:54:01,480 --> 00:54:04,510 around between all three? So that was the first thing that 828 00:54:04,510 --> 00:54:06,630 stood out to me on this chart. I know we don't have Julia 829 00:54:06,630 --> 00:54:09,350 McLaughlin here yet. She just doesn't. 830 00:54:09,350 --> 00:54:12,350 He didn't get enough snaps to crack the chart. 831 00:54:13,350 --> 00:54:19,870 So expected points combined for all running backs for Denver 832 00:54:19,870 --> 00:54:24,070 this week was 20. And if you're splitting 20 833 00:54:24,070 --> 00:54:27,350 expected points tree ways, that's it. 834 00:54:27,350 --> 00:54:29,030 That's pretty tough. Yeah. 835 00:54:29,230 --> 00:54:31,030 I'm. I'm not excited about that. 836 00:54:31,030 --> 00:54:34,190 So that's that's a a warning sign for that backfield. 837 00:54:34,230 --> 00:54:38,950 If you're in season long and you can somehow move Javante or P 838 00:54:38,950 --> 00:54:42,430 Ryan for anything or or even probably the savviest move is 839 00:54:42,430 --> 00:54:46,910 you get Jaleel McLaughlin off waivers he pops for a week and 840 00:54:46,910 --> 00:54:49,510 you try and package him and ship him off or something. 841 00:54:49,510 --> 00:54:53,270 Who who knows. I I don't think I'm I'm a little 842 00:54:53,270 --> 00:54:56,270 concerned though for that backfield going forward. 843 00:54:58,110 --> 00:55:00,570 Yeah, Breece. Breece Hall, moving up the 844 00:55:00,570 --> 00:55:04,090 chart, making his way on up. Led the backfield. 845 00:55:04,210 --> 00:55:10,970 In touch this week with six with six. 846 00:55:12,770 --> 00:55:15,010 Was it? Is it 6 or 6 carries? 847 00:55:15,090 --> 00:55:22,890 Let's let me pull him up here. 6 rush attempts. 6 rush attempts. 848 00:55:22,930 --> 00:55:25,050 You got it. Yeah. 849 00:55:25,050 --> 00:55:30,530 And Speaking of not great backfield, so just 18 combined 850 00:55:30,530 --> 00:55:37,770 expected points for The Jets and this week 5 for Carter, 7 for 851 00:55:37,770 --> 00:55:41,610 Breese Hall, 5 1/2 for Red Dalvin Cook. 852 00:55:42,410 --> 00:55:47,490 And so it's sort of I don't think this changes anything 853 00:55:47,490 --> 00:55:53,700 meaningful amount in that like. You need you need resolve to to 854 00:55:53,700 --> 00:55:56,220 consolidate the the work around him. 855 00:55:56,220 --> 00:55:59,860 You need him to meaningfully improve the offense through his 856 00:56:00,380 --> 00:56:06,340 abilities and but it's it's definitely it's definitely not 857 00:56:06,340 --> 00:56:08,820 happening on the trajectory. That was our most optimistic 858 00:56:08,820 --> 00:56:15,660 timeline. I I am very excited about his 859 00:56:15,700 --> 00:56:18,900 matchup with the Broncos this week, though, because that 860 00:56:18,900 --> 00:56:24,630 defense seems very desirable to target, and his snapshot, I 861 00:56:24,630 --> 00:56:27,470 believe, was the highest it's been all season this week as 862 00:56:27,470 --> 00:56:33,470 well, so The Jets are clearly working him back into the role 863 00:56:33,470 --> 00:56:35,270 that they eventually want him to have. 864 00:56:36,510 --> 00:56:40,710 If you're The Jets, your division is looking very scary, 865 00:56:41,030 --> 00:56:43,350 right? You've got the Bills who just 866 00:56:43,670 --> 00:56:48,540 took it to the Dolphins who just who had previously dropped 70 on 867 00:56:48,540 --> 00:56:50,540 the Broncos. So you're you're looking at 868 00:56:50,540 --> 00:56:51,860 those two teams in your division. 869 00:56:51,860 --> 00:56:55,700 You're thinking gosh, we got to really make some headway if 870 00:56:55,700 --> 00:56:57,340 we're going to have a chance at the playoffs. 871 00:56:57,340 --> 00:57:02,980 And so I I would, I feel like if the chips are down and they need 872 00:57:02,980 --> 00:57:07,580 to win the game they probably want to put the ball in Breece 873 00:57:07,580 --> 00:57:10,220 Hall's hands more and I think the Broncos are really 874 00:57:10,220 --> 00:57:12,420 interesting spot. I haven't looked at what his 875 00:57:12,420 --> 00:57:16,550 price is for on DraftKings this week, but this is one of those 876 00:57:16,550 --> 00:57:18,270 spots where I'm happy to play it. 877 00:57:18,270 --> 00:57:22,990 Before I see it, I would would just want to, you know, hope the 878 00:57:22,990 --> 00:57:26,190 market is not ready to bet on Breeze Hall yet. 879 00:57:26,190 --> 00:57:31,150 They're scared from the lack of opportunity and who knows, maybe 880 00:57:31,150 --> 00:57:35,910 there's some, you know, some weird universal juju going on. 881 00:57:35,910 --> 00:57:41,450 He did tear his his ACL against the Broncos last season but he 882 00:57:41,450 --> 00:57:44,850 was on the way to having a massive day when he did tear 883 00:57:44,850 --> 00:57:49,090 that ACL. So maybe maybe this upcoming 884 00:57:49,090 --> 00:57:53,930 week he he sets everything right in the world has an explosive 885 00:57:53,930 --> 00:57:54,610 game. I'm. 886 00:57:54,650 --> 00:57:59,530 I'm excited for that. My other my other pet player 887 00:57:59,530 --> 00:58:02,770 that I've been very vocal about this season. 888 00:58:02,770 --> 00:58:07,050 Justice Hill. Never a great look to lose work 889 00:58:07,050 --> 00:58:11,900 to Melvin Gordon. It's pretty pretty bad sign. 890 00:58:12,500 --> 00:58:15,540 The only optimistic thing you can tell yourself about Justice 891 00:58:15,540 --> 00:58:17,580 Hill is the competition is still poor. 892 00:58:17,580 --> 00:58:21,340 It's it's still Gus Edwards and Melvin Gordon and maybe he just 893 00:58:21,340 --> 00:58:23,660 wasn't 100% yet coming off the turf toe. 894 00:58:23,900 --> 00:58:25,900 If it was actually turf toe, which I don't think they 895 00:58:25,980 --> 00:58:29,220 explicitly said it was turf toe, just said it was a toe injury. 896 00:58:29,780 --> 00:58:32,740 But if it was turf toe that kind of injury can can linger for a 897 00:58:32,740 --> 00:58:35,300 while. So maybe he just wasn't 100%. 898 00:58:35,300 --> 00:58:40,480 They only gave him 3 carries. But yeah, not not super positive 899 00:58:40,760 --> 00:58:46,880 for him, we we did mention but. He only played 11% of snacks, 900 00:58:46,880 --> 00:58:49,520 just as Hill. Yeah, I mean that. 901 00:58:49,520 --> 00:58:54,760 That's to me the scream that being eased off back in injury. 902 00:58:55,440 --> 00:58:58,080 Yeah, I I certainly hope that's the case. 903 00:58:59,040 --> 00:59:01,920 Can can makers we we did talk about briefly. 904 00:59:02,160 --> 00:59:07,560 I could see his role increasing with the Vikings but that's as 905 00:59:07,560 --> 00:59:10,760 far as oh the other, the other guy on this backup chart here 906 00:59:11,440 --> 00:59:16,680 that I I feel like his stock declined a little bit this week. 907 00:59:16,680 --> 00:59:21,240 I'm not so nervous for him. But Roshan, I I think that for 908 00:59:21,240 --> 00:59:25,600 Roshan we got really excited seeing early in the season all 909 00:59:25,600 --> 00:59:30,280 that opportunity in the passing game and the Bears have not. 910 00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:34,000 His role has not been increasing week over week, rather it's been 911 00:59:34,000 --> 00:59:37,300 shrinking. Khalil Herbert got a lot of 912 00:59:37,300 --> 00:59:41,700 opportunity this week and so I think Rochon is going to be the 913 00:59:41,700 --> 00:59:45,100 kind of, you know your your classic rookie running back who 914 00:59:45,100 --> 00:59:47,380 we're going to have to wait a little longer in the season for 915 00:59:47,380 --> 00:59:51,700 his role to expand. But I I know the excitement for 916 00:59:51,700 --> 00:59:56,340 Rochon was there early, but I. We were excited about him, yeah. 917 00:59:56,340 --> 00:59:59,260 Oh, absolutely. I I was definitely, definitely 918 00:59:59,260 --> 01:00:00,860 thought he could be really interesting. 919 01:00:01,690 --> 01:00:04,210 But I think it's one of those or it's going to be more of a wait 920 01:00:04,210 --> 01:00:07,690 and see rather than a get production right away from him 921 01:00:07,970 --> 01:00:10,130 kind of deal. Right. 922 01:00:10,290 --> 01:00:14,450 And so and Devon, the other thing that we should mention, so 923 01:00:14,890 --> 01:00:20,250 the John Chan obviously moving up this chart, if we were to 924 01:00:20,250 --> 01:00:27,610 look at just his just week four, he was on the field 66% of snaps 925 01:00:28,170 --> 01:00:35,710 and. 50% of the Dolphins plays where passes where a Chan was 926 01:00:35,710 --> 01:00:40,150 running a route so don't know what that not quite sure what 927 01:00:40,150 --> 01:00:45,230 that is in terms of like his route participation rate but 928 01:00:45,950 --> 01:00:50,590 super high and does feel like that there's a decent chance 929 01:00:50,590 --> 01:00:54,550 that he he's there clear passing down back going forward which 930 01:00:55,070 --> 01:00:58,350 like oh baby like that that's that that would be pretty nice 931 01:00:59,350 --> 01:01:03,790 yeah he he's looking like of all the rookie running backs he's 932 01:01:04,190 --> 01:01:07,470 the largest win rookie running back that you could have drafted 933 01:01:08,390 --> 01:01:11,470 so he he had a 60. 8% route share last week. 934 01:01:11,990 --> 01:01:15,830 Yeah, he he looks like a smash through and through that. 935 01:01:15,830 --> 01:01:17,870 He's one of the player. He's one of those players. 936 01:01:17,870 --> 01:01:22,510 What's his resurrection ADP at? And probably not. 937 01:01:22,550 --> 01:01:26,550 Well, I I should look at it before I I make their comments 938 01:01:26,950 --> 01:01:30,270 and. Probably not high his 939 01:01:30,270 --> 01:01:34,670 resurrection. ADP is 40 Ohh OK, I was gonna 940 01:01:34,670 --> 01:01:39,630 say 40 would be like if he's not 40, I'm hammering it but right 941 01:01:39,630 --> 01:01:41,990 it does. It does seem the the market did 942 01:01:42,630 --> 01:01:45,510 a good enough job. I guess that's what happens when 943 01:01:45,510 --> 01:01:48,510 you drop A4 Touchdown game, right? 944 01:01:49,270 --> 01:01:53,030 And and super high, highly visible performance and like 945 01:01:53,670 --> 01:01:56,320 something that's gonna be. Under a microscope. 946 01:01:56,320 --> 01:01:59,560 So it makes sense that the market will be about right 947 01:01:59,560 --> 01:02:01,760 there. Yeah, the market market got that 948 01:02:01,760 --> 01:02:05,480 pretty close to right. I I think we're good to move on 949 01:02:05,480 --> 01:02:07,720 to the next chart. Yeah, we had, we lingered quite 950 01:02:07,720 --> 01:02:13,400 a while on some early ones here. And yeah, I I I think we can we 951 01:02:13,400 --> 01:02:16,120 can sort of breeze through the expected points chart as well 952 01:02:16,120 --> 01:02:19,680 because we hit on so many of the points we don't wanted to make. 953 01:02:22,160 --> 01:02:24,920 And so yeah, that's my job to explain these charts. 954 01:02:24,920 --> 01:02:27,880 I forgot about that. So this is the the running back 955 01:02:27,880 --> 01:02:29,880 expected points and efficiency chart. 956 01:02:30,560 --> 01:02:35,520 And on the horizontal axis we've got rushing expected points and 957 01:02:35,520 --> 01:02:38,640 on the vertical axis we've got receiving expected points. 958 01:02:39,240 --> 01:02:42,320 And then these sort of dotted red lines, they kind of like 959 01:02:42,360 --> 01:02:47,360 mark the the areas of like total expected points. 960 01:02:47,680 --> 01:02:51,240 So you can see here on the very right anywhere in here. 961 01:02:51,720 --> 01:02:55,880 And they had more than 20 expected points and then 15 to 962 01:02:55,880 --> 01:03:01,440 20. So just for example there, David 963 01:03:01,440 --> 01:03:06,480 Montgomery had 16 expected rushing points per game, or say 964 01:03:06,800 --> 01:03:12,160 expected points from rushing per game and then two or just under 965 01:03:12,160 --> 01:03:15,760 2 from receiving. And so he's around 18, and 966 01:03:15,760 --> 01:03:18,200 that's why he lands in this 15 to 20 chart. 967 01:03:18,770 --> 01:03:22,170 And then we have 10 to 15, we have 6 to 10 and and then 968 01:03:22,330 --> 01:03:27,690 finally zero to five. Yeah, a couple couple guys I 969 01:03:27,690 --> 01:03:31,570 wanted to point out here, we did see Keyshawn Vaughn seem like 970 01:03:31,570 --> 01:03:34,330 he's emerging as the number two in Tampa Bay. 971 01:03:34,330 --> 01:03:37,650 So all of my Sean Tucker big board shares are officially 972 01:03:37,650 --> 01:03:40,850 dead. That is a good amount of money I 973 01:03:40,850 --> 01:03:44,930 have lit on fire. I'm not super interested in the 974 01:03:44,930 --> 01:03:48,210 Tampa Bay running game though. Rashad White hasn't been very 975 01:03:48,210 --> 01:03:53,130 efficient. It I mean if they go cheap 976 01:03:53,130 --> 01:03:57,370 enough, if White goes cheap enough in resurrection, it's 977 01:03:57,370 --> 01:03:59,210 like an innings eater kind of player. 978 01:03:59,210 --> 01:04:02,010 You know it's like a a better version of Chuba Hubbard. 979 01:04:02,210 --> 01:04:04,890 You know you'll get you're not going to take a zero cuz you 980 01:04:04,890 --> 01:04:08,050 have Rashad White in there getting you know his three yards 981 01:04:08,050 --> 01:04:12,290 a carrier, whatever he does. But I his expected fantasy 982 01:04:12,290 --> 01:04:14,770 points I I would say probably come down. 983 01:04:15,570 --> 01:04:20,120 I I don't think he's gonna be able to maintain that share of 984 01:04:20,120 --> 01:04:22,440 the workload with how inefficient he's being. 985 01:04:22,440 --> 01:04:25,360 I think they probably work quiche on Vaughn in a tiny bit. 986 01:04:25,360 --> 01:04:28,640 It's it's just going to be one of those things where the pie is 987 01:04:28,640 --> 01:04:33,960 not big enough to really want that running back or or want 988 01:04:33,960 --> 01:04:37,200 that backfield unless you're getting it pretty cheap, so. 989 01:04:37,440 --> 01:04:40,880 I think Rachad White is interesting in that his 990 01:04:40,920 --> 01:04:46,720 resurrection at ADP is 82 and it's like. 991 01:04:47,280 --> 01:04:51,640 It's somebody like like we're saying he's in the he's in the 992 01:04:51,880 --> 01:04:56,240 what what you call it 15 expected points per game and and 993 01:04:56,240 --> 01:05:00,320 even I I I don't I definitely don't want to catch a following 994 01:05:00,320 --> 01:05:04,240 knife and I I'm I've never been or or I try really hard to not 995 01:05:04,240 --> 01:05:10,080 be that type of drafter and but I think that it that is 996 01:05:10,080 --> 01:05:14,600 interesting in that like 15 expected points at at an ADP of 997 01:05:14,600 --> 01:05:17,150 80. Yeah that that that's something 998 01:05:17,190 --> 01:05:21,390 where I I find that quite challenging to to value but you 999 01:05:21,510 --> 01:05:25,550 so you said he's, he's ATP 82, Pacheco was 75, is that right? 1000 01:05:26,430 --> 01:05:28,790 Yep. And so that's me that Pacheco 1001 01:05:28,790 --> 01:05:31,750 has more expected points. No, they're they're right. 1002 01:05:31,750 --> 01:05:34,230 They're right on each other. But for me it's. 1003 01:05:34,270 --> 01:05:36,870 Ohh, yeah, you're right there. Yeah that's that's ships in the 1004 01:05:36,870 --> 01:05:40,310 night right there that is you know I I see Pacheco moving on 1005 01:05:40,310 --> 01:05:44,110 up and I see Rashad White as as moving on down. 1006 01:05:44,110 --> 01:05:48,280 So I'm and Pacheco over white every day that I would if it 1007 01:05:48,280 --> 01:05:52,160 means that I have to have 0% Rashad White to have more 1008 01:05:52,160 --> 01:05:56,120 Pacheco right? I am sleeping like a baby with 1009 01:05:56,120 --> 01:06:02,080 my 0% Rashad white right. Yeah I I I I definitely I get 1010 01:06:02,080 --> 01:06:05,520 what you're saying for sure and and it's like do I want white 1011 01:06:05,520 --> 01:06:10,520 more than free check Oh no I don't it I'm and and it's 1012 01:06:10,520 --> 01:06:14,280 interesting seeing Pacheco here with in the in the 15 expected 1013 01:06:14,280 --> 01:06:17,210 points. Category 2 which is sort of like 1014 01:06:17,210 --> 01:06:24,250 eye opening for me and and if I guess this definitely speaks to 1015 01:06:24,250 --> 01:06:28,450 what you were saying where if he's fighting for the Chiefs if 1016 01:06:28,450 --> 01:06:32,370 he's getting these expected points and and he's going to be 1017 01:06:32,370 --> 01:06:35,650 pick 75. I I I think I'm going to 1018 01:06:35,650 --> 01:06:37,890 capitulate and and say you were definitely right on that one. 1019 01:06:39,170 --> 01:06:41,850 I I'm glad you came around on Pacheco. 1020 01:06:42,170 --> 01:06:45,660 Another guy right in. I swear I'm not just picking 1021 01:06:45,660 --> 01:06:48,020 guys dead in the middle of the chart but it's a guy I wanted to 1022 01:06:48,020 --> 01:06:49,260 talk about. It's Joe Mixon. 1023 01:06:50,100 --> 01:06:52,180 That one. What what's his resurrection? 1024 01:06:52,180 --> 01:06:54,220 ADP. Because if it's not like it, it 1025 01:06:54,220 --> 01:06:57,780 should also be like I'd take Pacheco over Joe Mixon. 1026 01:06:58,220 --> 01:07:01,180 You know every day and twice on Sundays he he probably. 1027 01:07:01,500 --> 01:07:03,540 Joe Mixon and Rashad White are the same thing. 1028 01:07:05,460 --> 01:07:08,060 They're just they're they're volume in a bad offense. 1029 01:07:08,060 --> 01:07:11,340 Right and and like. Mixon has 50 tree. 1030 01:07:11,760 --> 01:07:16,040 So yeah, all be 0% mix and then literally 0% never touch it, 1031 01:07:16,040 --> 01:07:17,440 they're. They might even they might be 1032 01:07:17,440 --> 01:07:21,760 the same age though that's mixing in white. 1033 01:07:22,720 --> 01:07:24,800 I'm joking. I I think where Chad White. 1034 01:07:24,800 --> 01:07:27,960 Was like an old he was, he was an older prospect. 1035 01:07:28,560 --> 01:07:32,560 But yeah, like I'll have 0% mix in there that that's just not 1036 01:07:33,080 --> 01:07:37,680 stuff for me. Yeah, yeah. 1037 01:07:37,680 --> 01:07:39,520 No, that that, that makes sense for sure. 1038 01:07:39,520 --> 01:07:43,200 I think that that definitely seems like a a bad a bad pick 1039 01:07:44,360 --> 01:07:49,080 for sure. Any anyone else on this chart 1040 01:07:49,240 --> 01:07:51,640 you wanted to hit on or or should we move to the next one? 1041 01:07:53,080 --> 01:07:58,080 And no, I, I, I, I think we can move on from this one here and 1042 01:07:58,080 --> 01:08:02,760 so and just another call that and this one looks a little 1043 01:08:02,760 --> 01:08:05,640 weirder because it has chimera on it and. 1044 01:08:06,550 --> 01:08:13,470 And just we we get this comment quite often where hey so and so 1045 01:08:13,470 --> 01:08:16,109 Claire isn't on the chart, we have to split the chart, open 1046 01:08:16,109 --> 01:08:18,630 the 2, otherwise it gets too clustered. 1047 01:08:19,149 --> 01:08:22,790 And the way that we most efficiently decluster it is we 1048 01:08:22,790 --> 01:08:26,069 put the even guys on one chart and then the guys with odd 1049 01:08:26,069 --> 01:08:28,870 points and odd amount of points on the other. 1050 01:08:29,189 --> 01:08:32,029 So that way we kind of separate things out and make this easier 1051 01:08:32,029 --> 01:08:36,430 to read. And as far as making it harder 1052 01:08:36,430 --> 01:08:41,470 to read, I I've decided to just scale the chart to the the 1053 01:08:41,470 --> 01:08:44,870 highest amount of expected fantasy points for both the 1054 01:08:44,870 --> 01:08:50,029 rushing and receiving axes here. And Alvin Camaro with his 13 1055 01:08:50,029 --> 01:08:54,029 targets this week, had quite a bit of expected receiving 1056 01:08:54,029 --> 01:08:55,590 points. You can see him up there above 1057 01:08:55,590 --> 01:08:58,700 20. He wasn't terribly efficient 1058 01:08:58,700 --> 01:09:01,460 with it, which is why his little circle is so small. 1059 01:09:01,460 --> 01:09:04,540 The larger the circle, the more efficient the player is with 1060 01:09:04,540 --> 01:09:08,300 their opportunities. And so you're seeing Kamara's 1061 01:09:08,300 --> 01:09:12,300 getting this elite role. His expected points are very 1062 01:09:12,300 --> 01:09:14,420 high. We saw on the usage charts he's, 1063 01:09:14,700 --> 01:09:17,260 you know, among the top backs of the league as far as his role, 1064 01:09:17,740 --> 01:09:22,340 but he's not terribly efficient. So the way that I'm digesting 1065 01:09:22,340 --> 01:09:28,399 this is there's probably a decent chunk of the outcomes 1066 01:09:28,399 --> 01:09:32,880 where Kamara is just a pretty good pick to have this year 1067 01:09:32,880 --> 01:09:35,920 where he, you know, the role that you got for the cost you 1068 01:09:35,920 --> 01:09:39,960 paid is a you know, could could very well be a steal. 1069 01:09:40,680 --> 01:09:42,600 I don't know where he's going in resurrection. 1070 01:09:42,600 --> 01:09:45,240 I would assume that resurrection moved his ADP up pretty 1071 01:09:45,240 --> 01:09:48,080 substantially, since, you know, knowing that he's not going to 1072 01:09:48,080 --> 01:09:52,040 be suspended was assuming right and to the price. 1073 01:09:53,319 --> 01:09:55,200 I'd be interested. So, yeah, 47. 1074 01:09:56,010 --> 01:09:59,690 Right around Rahim Mostard, Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon. 1075 01:10:00,370 --> 01:10:02,610 OK, I I definitely take him over Mixon. 1076 01:10:02,890 --> 01:10:06,170 I Him and Aaron Jones are both interesting to me. 1077 01:10:06,170 --> 01:10:09,770 That feels about right, to have those two players near each 1078 01:10:09,770 --> 01:10:12,730 other. Games cook in that range too. 1079 01:10:13,650 --> 01:10:18,650 Yeah, I I'm probably leaning cook there because again the 1080 01:10:18,650 --> 01:10:21,890 whole ships in the night thing, not to overuse it, but I feel 1081 01:10:21,890 --> 01:10:25,940 like if anything Kamara the Kumar's role can only really 1082 01:10:25,940 --> 01:10:29,980 decrease from here and it's not like we don't have any reason to 1083 01:10:29,980 --> 01:10:32,860 think that it could decrease. He he was bad last year. 1084 01:10:32,860 --> 01:10:36,180 He lost work to David Johnson and Mark Ingram. 1085 01:10:36,260 --> 01:10:39,860 Like those players are not taking NFL snaps this year for a 1086 01:10:39,860 --> 01:10:43,180 reason, right? He was not good last year in 1087 01:10:43,180 --> 01:10:45,620 this first game. He wasn't super efficient. 1088 01:10:46,420 --> 01:10:51,760 I I I guess what I'm saying is there's a a good chunk of 1089 01:10:51,760 --> 01:10:54,320 outcomes where he just does enough to hold on to the role 1090 01:10:54,320 --> 01:10:57,200 and the roles really good and he's he's just good because he's 1091 01:10:57,200 --> 01:10:59,320 the guy getting the role. Kind of like Kyron Williams, 1092 01:10:59,520 --> 01:11:01,640 right? Like Kyron's not anything 1093 01:11:01,720 --> 01:11:04,360 particularly special. He's getting a crazy role, 1094 01:11:04,840 --> 01:11:06,480 right. And so I think that's what 1095 01:11:06,480 --> 01:11:08,920 you're looking at. For Kamara, when it's a win, 1096 01:11:08,960 --> 01:11:11,800 that's what you get. He just gets the role when it's 1097 01:11:11,800 --> 01:11:14,680 a loss. When Kamara starts losing some 1098 01:11:14,680 --> 01:11:19,640 of this work, you've got a very intriguing opportunity here 1099 01:11:19,720 --> 01:11:21,760 because someone's got to take the carries. 1100 01:11:21,760 --> 01:11:25,600 Now you know prior to him coming back, Jamal Williams didn't do 1101 01:11:25,600 --> 01:11:27,760 too much with it. You know, Tony Jones, junior 1102 01:11:27,760 --> 01:11:30,600 didn't do a ton with it and Kendry didn't do a ton with his 1103 01:11:30,600 --> 01:11:33,760 opportunity. But I've I've got to think that 1104 01:11:34,120 --> 01:11:38,320 what we saw in the first few weeks, there's no way that the 1105 01:11:38,320 --> 01:11:41,080 rushing game for this offense is that poor. 1106 01:11:42,080 --> 01:11:44,800 So I feel like this is an opportunity where if people are 1107 01:11:44,800 --> 01:11:48,360 going to you know, I'm I'm never gonna be super excited to buy 1108 01:11:48,360 --> 01:11:51,280 Jamal Williams. But if Jamal Williams is free in 1109 01:11:51,280 --> 01:11:53,680 Resurrection, I might might take a crack there. 1110 01:11:53,680 --> 01:11:57,560 I I'm still probably gonna just lose money on Kendre though and 1111 01:11:57,560 --> 01:12:01,600 just I I would assume that Kendre is mostly free as well 1112 01:12:01,600 --> 01:12:04,080 and that's probably the way that I'd wanna still play this 1113 01:12:04,080 --> 01:12:08,280 offense. But yeah, I felt like it was. 1114 01:12:08,440 --> 01:12:13,720 Andrea is pick 180. I just need to not draft 1115 01:12:13,720 --> 01:12:16,120 Resurrection because I'm gonna lose so much money on Kendra 1116 01:12:16,120 --> 01:12:19,760 Miller. I think with the Camaro stuff, 1117 01:12:20,080 --> 01:12:24,440 it's it's actually, it's a lot more intuitive than it looks or 1118 01:12:24,440 --> 01:12:28,800 it it this is like one of those stupid situations and half of 1119 01:12:28,800 --> 01:12:33,440 Camaro and 47% of Camaro's roots was he got targeted. 1120 01:12:34,240 --> 01:12:47,020 He had -20 air yards and he had like. 30 tree, 30 tree, actual 1121 01:12:47,020 --> 01:12:50,260 receiving yards. So he was basically being 1122 01:12:50,260 --> 01:12:55,340 targeted, let's say 4 yards or or or minus. 1123 01:12:55,380 --> 01:13:00,860 Minus, let's say -2, yeah, say -2 yards in the backfield and 1124 01:13:00,860 --> 01:13:03,820 then getting back to tree yards, but beyond the line of 1125 01:13:03,820 --> 01:13:05,820 scrimmage. So something like that. 1126 01:13:06,300 --> 01:13:09,900 And or or maybe even less like 1 yard beyond the line of 1127 01:13:09,900 --> 01:13:16,800 scrimmage 2 or so. Anyway and it's very clear that 1128 01:13:17,520 --> 01:13:20,640 they were they did not have a functional passing offense and 1129 01:13:20,640 --> 01:13:27,240 and we're blaming on the injury and so and then the the the the 1130 01:13:27,240 --> 01:13:31,720 defense probably did know hey they're just gonna choke it down 1131 01:13:31,720 --> 01:13:38,200 like so it's this is definitely a a strange strange week that I 1132 01:13:38,200 --> 01:13:41,640 I wouldn't expect to see too often and. 1133 01:13:42,480 --> 01:13:46,880 But having so that means I'm I'm completely writing off this 1134 01:13:46,880 --> 01:13:51,720 target obviously I'm I'm writing off the the target number it's 1135 01:13:51,720 --> 01:13:57,320 just it's bananas it's not going to happen again and I'm probably 1136 01:13:57,320 --> 01:14:02,280 expecting a little bit better efficiency and but we we have 1137 01:14:02,280 --> 01:14:07,120 seen this ongoing decline and Camara's skill set as a as a run 1138 01:14:07,120 --> 01:14:15,080 after the cash receiver and but. There there's definitely a 1139 01:14:15,080 --> 01:14:20,560 chance where he's like still a a serviceable NFL route runner as 1140 01:14:20,560 --> 01:14:26,080 a running back and can can make plays and but I think, I do 1141 01:14:26,080 --> 01:14:30,640 think at a pick 50 it's it's just too rich for what you're 1142 01:14:30,640 --> 01:14:34,400 getting there. Yeah I I think you're right 1143 01:14:34,400 --> 01:14:38,040 there. I I probably was being a little 1144 01:14:38,040 --> 01:14:43,330 too friendly to Kamara at that ADP just because I have none of 1145 01:14:43,330 --> 01:14:47,970 him in in my normal best ball drafts and I I didn't want to 1146 01:14:48,810 --> 01:14:51,810 let my bias of not having any of them bury him. 1147 01:14:51,810 --> 01:14:54,850 But I he has been bad. I I don't think he's all of a 1148 01:14:54,850 --> 01:14:57,290 sudden you know found the fountain of youth and gonna look 1149 01:14:57,290 --> 01:15:02,530 like you know the album Kamara of yesteryear or yesteryears you 1150 01:15:02,530 --> 01:15:08,180 know so that that's probably a that's better better analysis 1151 01:15:08,180 --> 01:15:10,500 than I gave there moving moving on from. 1152 01:15:10,500 --> 01:15:13,860 No, I I don't think better just just different different flavor 1153 01:15:15,620 --> 01:15:20,940 moving moving on from Kamera we see Swift he's he's gonna 1154 01:15:20,940 --> 01:15:25,300 eventually he's almost broken into that 15 to 20 fantasy point 1155 01:15:25,300 --> 01:15:27,500 band there. I think he gets there. 1156 01:15:27,500 --> 01:15:32,220 I think the Eagles they they've shown that they realize that 1157 01:15:32,220 --> 01:15:35,300 Swift is the better option to gain. 1158 01:15:35,300 --> 01:15:39,420 Well I think it's what what it's going to shake out as is Swift 1159 01:15:39,420 --> 01:15:41,660 is that that primary back he's going to get. 1160 01:15:41,780 --> 01:15:45,220 You know the Miles Sanders level work that Sanders got last year 1161 01:15:45,980 --> 01:15:48,980 possibly even a little bit more. He has been utilized in the 1162 01:15:48,980 --> 01:15:52,380 passing game you know a little more than Sanders was as well. 1163 01:15:53,260 --> 01:15:58,260 And so I think that we see the the most painful thing to me is 1164 01:15:58,260 --> 01:16:03,040 this offseason when people started hyping Kenny gain Well I 1165 01:16:03,160 --> 01:16:06,920 I was saying you know we we did this last year we we got signal 1166 01:16:06,920 --> 01:16:09,880 last year that oh the coaching staff loves Kenny Gainwell. 1167 01:16:09,880 --> 01:16:12,520 They're wearing Kenny Gainwell tshirts at press conferences. 1168 01:16:12,840 --> 01:16:15,440 Kenny you know he's the guy they trust like it's it's Kenny 1169 01:16:15,440 --> 01:16:19,080 Gainwell season you idiots are drafting swift way ahead of gain 1170 01:16:19,080 --> 01:16:23,240 well it's going to be gain well and I for a long time I held 1171 01:16:23,240 --> 01:16:26,080 pretty firm that like no we I'm not getting tricked on this 1172 01:16:26,080 --> 01:16:28,320 Kenny Gainwell shit again. Like I I know what Kenny 1173 01:16:28,320 --> 01:16:30,930 Gainwell is. He's you know a satellite back 1174 01:16:30,930 --> 01:16:34,090 plus he's a change of pace back. You know he can he can take some 1175 01:16:34,090 --> 01:16:37,370 carries and some workload. He's never going to be the, you 1176 01:16:37,410 --> 01:16:39,730 know the primary guy in the offense. 1177 01:16:40,450 --> 01:16:44,690 And eventually I I added a little gain well to my position 1178 01:16:44,690 --> 01:16:47,130 just to to not be so, so underweight on him. 1179 01:16:47,890 --> 01:16:51,370 And now in with the hindsight of how the seasons played out, I'm 1180 01:16:51,370 --> 01:16:53,810 just wishing I'd made the bet on talent, on Swift. 1181 01:16:53,810 --> 01:16:58,370 And So what I what I want as a take away for myself for next 1182 01:16:58,370 --> 01:17:02,920 year is when there's a running back with elite talent like I I 1183 01:17:02,920 --> 01:17:04,560 thought DeAndre Swift was an elite talent. 1184 01:17:04,560 --> 01:17:07,240 I was drafting him in the second round last year, you know, 1185 01:17:07,240 --> 01:17:10,280 behind a Lions offensive line that I thought was one of the 1186 01:17:10,280 --> 01:17:11,840 best offensive lines in the league. 1187 01:17:12,440 --> 01:17:15,400 And then Swift goes to the Eagles with another one of the 1188 01:17:15,400 --> 01:17:16,840 best offensive lines in the league. 1189 01:17:17,520 --> 01:17:22,160 And I was just barely overweight on him at his ADP, you know at a 1190 01:17:22,160 --> 01:17:24,360 substantial discount from where he was. 1191 01:17:25,260 --> 01:17:27,780 And so if I ever get an opportunity like that again 1192 01:17:27,780 --> 01:17:31,020 where the market severely discounts a guy because a run 1193 01:17:31,020 --> 01:17:34,140 out for a particular season was poor, you know, and his 1194 01:17:34,180 --> 01:17:37,620 opportunity could change, I'm just going to be really 1195 01:17:37,620 --> 01:17:39,940 aggressive and hammer it and bet on the talent again. 1196 01:17:39,940 --> 01:17:43,900 And so I just, I wanted to to say that to not only remind 1197 01:17:43,900 --> 01:17:46,780 myself but to hopefully give some other people some alpha for 1198 01:17:46,780 --> 01:17:49,420 next season if we if we get situations like this in the 1199 01:17:49,420 --> 01:17:54,270 future. And I I think very often draft 1200 01:17:54,270 --> 01:18:00,310 season does give us opportunities to to bet on on on 1201 01:18:00,310 --> 01:18:05,110 discounted talent because they don't like whatever they don't 1202 01:18:05,110 --> 01:18:09,190 like the points, they don't they think something coaching and 1203 01:18:09,190 --> 01:18:13,470 they think the situation is bad and I think we we will 1204 01:18:13,470 --> 01:18:16,190 definitely get opportunities like that time and time again. 1205 01:18:17,000 --> 01:18:20,200 And and sometimes you just get your you get your your face 1206 01:18:20,320 --> 01:18:25,720 smashed in and people call you an idiot like what kind of idiot 1207 01:18:25,720 --> 01:18:29,960 didn't realize that Swift like just pisses off his coaches 1208 01:18:30,360 --> 01:18:33,240 doesn't understand how to run behind an old line won't take 1209 01:18:33,240 --> 01:18:37,080 his block like this like that that was all stuff that like was 1210 01:18:37,080 --> 01:18:40,640 definitely out there and it's I think it's it's really hard to 1211 01:18:40,640 --> 01:18:44,640 ignore and and I found I found it difficult to ignore at times 1212 01:18:45,160 --> 01:18:48,990 and. I I ended up I end up slightly 1213 01:18:49,070 --> 01:18:52,230 probably slightly more overweight than you did and but 1214 01:18:53,310 --> 01:18:59,110 I I'm at like 16 1/2% but in in in hindsight I'm like why didn't 1215 01:18:59,110 --> 01:19:03,070 I have so much more this is such a clear spot but stuff like that 1216 01:19:03,070 --> 01:19:07,670 can be really really difficult to to ignore I think and and and 1217 01:19:07,670 --> 01:19:14,030 just on on on Swift himself so he's gonna pick Turdy now which. 1218 01:19:14,800 --> 01:19:20,040 I think is slightly too cheap and I think he should be. 1219 01:19:20,320 --> 01:19:25,240 He should be a second round back I think and but definitely happy 1220 01:19:25,240 --> 01:19:29,680 to bet on him in the in the in the middle of the turd and 1221 01:19:30,040 --> 01:19:37,200 middle of the 3rd and he's he's last couple of weeks, last two 1222 01:19:37,200 --> 01:19:42,760 weeks and he's had an average of 9 1/2 expected points. 1223 01:19:43,110 --> 01:19:46,270 From the running game and an expected 5. 1224 01:19:46,870 --> 01:19:51,110 From from receiving game so actually sort of like pretty 1225 01:19:51,110 --> 01:19:56,950 balanced as as in terms of like rushing and as a receiver and 1226 01:19:57,750 --> 01:20:02,350 and very efficient with his carries and and what is sort of 1227 01:20:02,350 --> 01:20:05,790 interesting is that he's actually he's ran bad on 1228 01:20:05,790 --> 01:20:11,230 touchdowns so he's he's ran just on just about. 1229 01:20:11,830 --> 01:20:16,750 And one touchdown less than expected and and so like if if 1230 01:20:16,750 --> 01:20:21,510 you sort of like expect efficiency from from Swift he 1231 01:20:21,510 --> 01:20:24,070 could be even better than he's been playing in the last couple 1232 01:20:24,070 --> 01:20:28,150 weeks. Yeah, Aaron in the chat has a a 1233 01:20:28,150 --> 01:20:30,510 good point, he said. I mean that coaching staff did 1234 01:20:30,510 --> 01:20:33,190 not trust or like Swift unless we want to consider he was 1235 01:20:33,190 --> 01:20:35,910 indeed hurt those times. I mean, we we certainly know he 1236 01:20:35,910 --> 01:20:39,110 was hurt last season and the other point that I want to make 1237 01:20:39,110 --> 01:20:43,250 on on coaching Staffs is. For the most part, we should 1238 01:20:43,250 --> 01:20:48,530 probably just assume that most coaching Staffs in the NFL are 1239 01:20:48,530 --> 01:20:50,290 not good. You know, like there's a few 1240 01:20:50,290 --> 01:20:52,930 that are good and most of them are not. 1241 01:20:53,330 --> 01:20:57,610 And so just because they make a decision, I'm I'm sure people 1242 01:20:57,610 --> 01:20:59,970 have heard that, you know, the assumption of rational coaching, 1243 01:20:59,970 --> 01:21:02,290 Like, don't assume these guys are rational. 1244 01:21:02,290 --> 01:21:04,370 They're not. They're not doing rational stuff 1245 01:21:04,370 --> 01:21:07,250 a lot of the time. And so you get yourself in a in 1246 01:21:07,250 --> 01:21:09,050 a trap where you're like, Oh well. 1247 01:21:09,610 --> 01:21:12,490 This coaching staff didn't like him, therefore he's not good. 1248 01:21:12,890 --> 01:21:17,370 And so instead it's just, hey, let's not take the signal of 1249 01:21:17,370 --> 01:21:18,930 what the coaching staff is telling us. 1250 01:21:18,930 --> 01:21:22,450 The only and I think I mentioned this on this show earlier in 1251 01:21:22,450 --> 01:21:26,890 this this year, unless a team has really demonstrated for me 1252 01:21:26,890 --> 01:21:30,210 that they are like significantly above average, they have a a 1253 01:21:30,210 --> 01:21:34,090 very talented staff in a specific area like I've I 1254 01:21:34,090 --> 01:21:37,370 mentioned the Steelers and you know evaluating wide receiver 1255 01:21:37,370 --> 01:21:39,560 talent. Then that's something where I'm 1256 01:21:39,560 --> 01:21:42,240 willing to lean into that narrative and say I trust the 1257 01:21:42,240 --> 01:21:44,160 Steelers to draft good wide receivers. 1258 01:21:44,160 --> 01:21:46,520 I'll I'll take some shots on Calvin Austin, cuz they liked 1259 01:21:46,520 --> 01:21:49,520 him. But for the most part, I'm just 1260 01:21:49,520 --> 01:21:52,840 gonna assume that the coaches don't really know what they're 1261 01:21:52,840 --> 01:21:55,480 doing with respect to, you know, if they do or don't like a 1262 01:21:55,480 --> 01:21:59,400 player, if there's signal that the player's really talented, 1263 01:21:59,400 --> 01:22:01,320 I'm just gonna bet on talent over what? 1264 01:22:01,520 --> 01:22:02,880 Whatever the coach is telling us. 1265 01:22:02,880 --> 01:22:07,000 So what helped with Sueth as well is that he changed coaching 1266 01:22:07,000 --> 01:22:10,490 Staffs like I I don't think I'm ever. 1267 01:22:10,770 --> 01:22:13,810 It's gonna be very difficult for me to trust like this kind of 1268 01:22:13,810 --> 01:22:20,290 like swift archetype like back on on the on the lines just 1269 01:22:20,290 --> 01:22:26,890 because I feel like unless we get much better news on I can't 1270 01:22:26,890 --> 01:22:28,970 believe I'm black enough. Who's the who's the the 2nd 1271 01:22:29,130 --> 01:22:32,450 Jamir Gibbs. And for the lines for the rest 1272 01:22:32,450 --> 01:22:35,170 of the year, I think we're getting pretty good signal here 1273 01:22:35,170 --> 01:22:38,600 that they even when they tell us that they love those guys, they 1274 01:22:38,640 --> 01:22:41,320 don't actually like, they like the idea of them. 1275 01:22:41,320 --> 01:22:44,400 They don't like the reality of those players, even though they 1276 01:22:44,400 --> 01:22:47,440 should. Yeah, no, they they were happy 1277 01:22:47,440 --> 01:22:49,800 to throw away. You know an early first round 1278 01:22:49,800 --> 01:22:52,160 pick on a guy that they're just not. 1279 01:22:52,560 --> 01:22:56,800 They're not gonna give anywhere near the opportunity to that he 1280 01:22:57,280 --> 01:22:59,760 he deserves if you're gonna spend that much on a guy. 1281 01:23:00,690 --> 01:23:04,170 That better be like a core, core part of your offense. 1282 01:23:04,290 --> 01:23:06,690 You think he's a true true difference maker. 1283 01:23:06,770 --> 01:23:11,330 He's the engine and they're just not using him that way because 1284 01:23:11,330 --> 01:23:15,970 they're not they're not all that sharp and and right, the worst 1285 01:23:15,970 --> 01:23:19,650 the worst thing about that and this is like the Lions are like 1286 01:23:19,650 --> 01:23:23,170 diet Arthur Smith, right. Like Dan Campbell's diet Arthur 1287 01:23:23,170 --> 01:23:25,290 Smith. Like at least he has a good 1288 01:23:25,770 --> 01:23:28,730 offensive coordinator there that they're you know they're gonna. 1289 01:23:29,360 --> 01:23:32,360 Put up a a function, a much more functional offense than it, 1290 01:23:32,600 --> 01:23:35,720 right? But they're never going to do 1291 01:23:36,200 --> 01:23:38,600 what actually would be. They're not going to fully 1292 01:23:38,600 --> 01:23:43,160 unlock the potential of their passing game because they're 1293 01:23:43,160 --> 01:23:45,040 happy to put the ball in Monty's belly. 1294 01:23:45,200 --> 01:23:50,480 You know 30 * a game if if they get any inkling that they can 1295 01:23:50,480 --> 01:23:52,960 win a game and give the ball to him 30 times. 1296 01:23:53,460 --> 01:23:57,660 They are happy to do that and happy as a pig and shine is what 1297 01:23:57,660 --> 01:24:00,260 we would say. Absolutely. 1298 01:24:02,220 --> 01:24:04,860 Anyone else on this chart that you wanted to hit on? 1299 01:24:05,740 --> 01:24:07,980 No, I I think I think we should move on. 1300 01:24:09,940 --> 01:24:14,420 So now we move on to the tight end utilization and efficiency 1301 01:24:14,420 --> 01:24:19,300 chart. And so with tight ends similar 1302 01:24:19,300 --> 01:24:23,990 to to running back and with the with some exceptions a lot of 1303 01:24:23,990 --> 01:24:27,190 the time and what you're looking for is a tight end who's going 1304 01:24:27,190 --> 01:24:32,110 to run a lot of routes and you want the ones where they they 1305 01:24:32,110 --> 01:24:35,990 have, it's the same guy on the field over and over and they 1306 01:24:35,990 --> 01:24:38,190 don't ask them to pass block too often. 1307 01:24:38,790 --> 01:24:42,310 And then and that's what we have, we in the green chart, we 1308 01:24:42,310 --> 01:24:45,630 have their their percentage of team drop backs where they're 1309 01:24:45,630 --> 01:24:51,250 running a route and then and we also have their targets per our 1310 01:24:51,250 --> 01:24:55,010 run because obviously we don't just want, we don't want the 1311 01:24:55,050 --> 01:24:58,690 empty calorie routes like Adam Troutman who's running a route 1312 01:24:58,690 --> 01:25:03,130 but doesn't doesn't get targeted very often at eight, 8% targets 1313 01:25:03,130 --> 01:25:06,410 per at run. And then we look at a dot as 1314 01:25:06,410 --> 01:25:09,810 well because we do want the targets down the field. 1315 01:25:10,450 --> 01:25:13,970 Although I one thing that that struck me when I was looking at 1316 01:25:13,970 --> 01:25:18,850 this chart is that these A dots are are just pretty low across 1317 01:25:18,850 --> 01:25:21,770 the board. Feels like this is a low a dot 1318 01:25:21,850 --> 01:25:26,130 tight end year. Yeah and I've I've heard people 1319 01:25:26,130 --> 01:25:29,570 talk about that it it very well could be a product of you know 1320 01:25:29,570 --> 01:25:34,410 the how how common you know too high and safeties is becoming 1321 01:25:34,450 --> 01:25:37,210 We're using tight ends to attack the shorter areas of the field 1322 01:25:37,210 --> 01:25:41,090 and less you know on those seam routes to to really right keep 1323 01:25:41,450 --> 01:25:45,060 and I I I think that. There's there's definitely some 1324 01:25:45,540 --> 01:25:50,620 some merit to that theory when I when I look at this chart I mean 1325 01:25:50,620 --> 01:25:55,300 it's I'm not not seeing a ton that really is worth you know 1326 01:25:55,300 --> 01:25:59,220 noteworthy you know hey Mark Andrews is mark Andrews is good 1327 01:25:59,300 --> 01:26:03,580 Oh my gosh we're all surprised 20% targets for right run and it 1328 01:26:03,580 --> 01:26:08,580 one of I do find it a bit shocking that given given all 1329 01:26:08,580 --> 01:26:14,400 the tiltage on call pits that like his route rate is like it 1330 01:26:14,440 --> 01:26:18,880 it's it's it's #2 and yes he's not like he's not going 1331 01:26:18,920 --> 01:26:23,440 particularly untargeted 16% targets per run is not awful 1332 01:26:23,960 --> 01:26:30,000 he's getting deep targets and so it's it feels to me that he 1333 01:26:30,000 --> 01:26:34,040 doesn't have this awful role he's just playing on a bad 1334 01:26:34,040 --> 01:26:38,640 offense It's it's sort of like it's not like the the Falcons 1335 01:26:38,640 --> 01:26:42,790 could just turn on the switch and and maybe this is more of a 1336 01:26:42,790 --> 01:26:45,190 negative point than anything it's not like the the Falcons 1337 01:26:45,190 --> 01:26:50,110 can turn on the switch and then it's the call call Pitt score 1338 01:26:50,110 --> 01:26:54,670 point switch like if it feels like a lot of this is is more 1339 01:26:54,790 --> 01:26:57,830 the the the low production is sort of the function of the 1340 01:26:57,830 --> 01:27:00,470 offense. Yeah, it's it's systemic for 1341 01:27:00,470 --> 01:27:02,270 sure. Through four games, Ritter's 1342 01:27:02,270 --> 01:27:05,590 averaging less than 30 attempts per game, which is not great. 1343 01:27:05,990 --> 01:27:09,710 He's under 750 yards, so under 200 yards a game. 1344 01:27:10,470 --> 01:27:13,830 It's just it's a small pie, you know, and and Kyle Pitts is not 1345 01:27:13,830 --> 01:27:16,830 even playing tight end. He's he's lining up out wide and 1346 01:27:16,830 --> 01:27:18,870 in the slot more than he lines up at tight end. 1347 01:27:19,390 --> 01:27:21,590 And that's why Johnny Smith is out there. 1348 01:27:21,830 --> 01:27:24,710 Look at Johnny Smith, 22% targets per route run. 1349 01:27:25,230 --> 01:27:28,190 You know shorter a dot than Kyle Pitts cuz he's operating more 1350 01:27:28,190 --> 01:27:31,190 like a traditional tight end. For all intents and purposes, 1351 01:27:31,230 --> 01:27:33,510 Kyle Pitts is the wide receiver too. 1352 01:27:33,510 --> 01:27:36,280 On the Atlanta Falcons, it's. You know Drake, London's the 1353 01:27:36,280 --> 01:27:38,560 wide receiver one. Kyle Pitts is the wide receiver 1354 01:27:38,560 --> 01:27:40,120 too. But it's an offense where you 1355 01:27:40,120 --> 01:27:41,720 don't even want the wide receiver one. 1356 01:27:42,080 --> 01:27:45,160 So you know the tight in eligibility is sweet. 1357 01:27:45,760 --> 01:27:51,960 But to to me your your only prayer with Kyle Pitts now is 1358 01:27:51,960 --> 01:27:56,720 that you get a random week in the playoffs where he he gets 1359 01:27:56,720 --> 01:27:59,400 you know 2 touchdowns and you you got him as a low advanced 1360 01:27:59,400 --> 01:28:04,150 rate guy because. Without we're gonna need a major 1361 01:28:04,150 --> 01:28:06,310 change tune for this Atlanta team. 1362 01:28:06,430 --> 01:28:09,790 For him to pay off his ADP, even though he was not terribly 1363 01:28:09,790 --> 01:28:13,310 expensive, it it's really unfortunate. 1364 01:28:13,310 --> 01:28:16,790 I had, I had been out on Kyle Pitts every year up until this 1365 01:28:16,790 --> 01:28:18,790 year. I never had had drank the 1366 01:28:18,790 --> 01:28:23,070 kool-aid and I considered myself lucky for not, you know, falling 1367 01:28:23,070 --> 01:28:25,630 on the Kyle Pitts grenade when he was going like in the third 1368 01:28:25,630 --> 01:28:27,430 round. But I thought this year. 1369 01:28:27,830 --> 01:28:29,990 Ohh my gosh. This guy put up like the best 1370 01:28:29,990 --> 01:28:34,790 rookie Titan season of all time, You know, in the modern NFL. 1371 01:28:35,230 --> 01:28:38,630 And you're telling me that I can get this guy in like the 6th, 1372 01:28:38,630 --> 01:28:41,750 7th, 8th round, even sometimes on DraftKings. 1373 01:28:41,750 --> 01:28:48,470 Like OK, I'm all in and I I got bamboozled This year, hand up I 1374 01:28:48,630 --> 01:28:50,310 I did. It got bamboozled. 1375 01:28:51,910 --> 01:28:56,050 Yeah, it is it. It's it's really tough and just 1376 01:28:56,050 --> 01:29:00,010 because like because he does have this deep roll it does feel 1377 01:29:00,010 --> 01:29:07,250 like there's at least some chance where he captures some 1378 01:29:07,250 --> 01:29:11,730 deep passes and and puts in some huge games and it's like every 1379 01:29:11,730 --> 01:29:18,970 time I look Kyle Pitts is he's going later and the other thing 1380 01:29:18,970 --> 01:29:22,530 is is that so right now his ADP is 117. 1381 01:29:23,050 --> 01:29:26,140 He's gone right between Hunter Henry and Jake Ferguson. 1382 01:29:26,980 --> 01:29:32,340 Wow. And like obviously if if you 1383 01:29:32,340 --> 01:29:37,020 were drafting call pits during regular basketball season like 1384 01:29:37,060 --> 01:29:39,940 you, you are down horrendous. We are down horrendous. 1385 01:29:40,540 --> 01:29:47,140 And yes, but it's there's also something there where it's like, 1386 01:29:47,180 --> 01:29:50,260 OK, well you do have to, you do have to put tight ends in your 1387 01:29:50,260 --> 01:29:54,040 roster. And he's going in a range now 1388 01:29:54,040 --> 01:30:00,520 where the scoring is so, so anemic for tight ends and that 1389 01:30:00,520 --> 01:30:04,880 it's like even with the bad top pits games like, So what, he's a 1390 01:30:04,880 --> 01:30:09,400 tight end, he's going in the anemic tight end range. 1391 01:30:09,960 --> 01:30:12,600 Where Where has Sam Laporte's ADP moved to? 1392 01:30:13,680 --> 01:30:20,720 Sam LaPorte is now 52 and he is a tight end 4 by ADP head of 1393 01:30:20,720 --> 01:30:24,410 George Kittle. Head of Darren Waller, which is 1394 01:30:24,810 --> 01:30:27,410 pretty appropriate. Yeah, that's appropriate. 1395 01:30:28,450 --> 01:30:31,170 Yeah, let's, let's talk about Darren Waller for a little bit. 1396 01:30:31,250 --> 01:30:36,810 Is that. Let's let's just say it's you 1397 01:30:36,810 --> 01:30:45,850 know the the 12th round pick pick 140, you even sniffing 1398 01:30:45,850 --> 01:30:52,030 Darren Waller here and the 12th round 140. 1399 01:30:52,750 --> 01:30:53,790 Yeah, I think so. OK. 1400 01:30:55,310 --> 01:31:01,350 Now just because like I guess you are getting it in an awful, 1401 01:31:01,470 --> 01:31:10,030 awful offense and it's targeted for at run last week 7% down 1402 01:31:10,030 --> 01:31:17,430 from 2618 and 22 in the three prior weeks and and. 1403 01:31:18,870 --> 01:31:24,310 It looks looks pretty bad. It it it feels pretty bad and 1404 01:31:25,790 --> 01:31:31,150 that feels pretty, pretty bad. I guess on the flip side is that 1405 01:31:31,150 --> 01:31:34,510 he is. So if you exclude week one, 1406 01:31:35,390 --> 01:31:42,550 you're talking like 85% and route share, you're talking like 1407 01:31:42,830 --> 01:31:45,990 if you I don't want to throw out week 4. 1408 01:31:45,990 --> 01:31:51,030 But if if you think that 20% is closer to the median, like 1409 01:31:51,790 --> 01:31:54,950 that's obviously even in an awful offense that that's really 1410 01:31:54,950 --> 01:31:58,870 good. So it's like there is there's 1411 01:31:58,870 --> 01:32:04,030 definitely some value there and there's and there's some points 1412 01:32:04,030 --> 01:32:11,070 for him to score. But the market way overplayed 1413 01:32:11,270 --> 01:32:15,860 way overpriced while or this year given the given the issues 1414 01:32:16,220 --> 01:32:22,700 with the joints given his age and I pick 77 and I'm very 1415 01:32:22,700 --> 01:32:27,580 confident that that's going to go down and but still being very 1416 01:32:27,580 --> 01:32:31,260 confident commonly say that that's not appropriate pricing 1417 01:32:31,260 --> 01:32:32,700 and the risk. Yeah, I would. 1418 01:32:32,780 --> 01:32:35,900 I would have zero at pick 77 and sleep like a baby. 1419 01:32:37,660 --> 01:32:45,870 Yeah, zero. Very, very confident 0 and so I 1420 01:32:45,870 --> 01:32:51,510 don't I don't think I guess I should point out the Julian Hill 1421 01:32:51,510 --> 01:32:57,510 so he only played in a wheat tree when Durham smite and was 1422 01:32:57,830 --> 01:33:05,270 was missing for some reason and so wouldn't read too much into 1423 01:33:05,270 --> 01:33:09,330 that and but other than that I I don't see anything sort of like 1424 01:33:09,850 --> 01:33:12,170 new that we haven't talked about in for our weeks here. 1425 01:33:12,650 --> 01:33:14,930 The only one that I wanna hit on now that we have a little more 1426 01:33:14,930 --> 01:33:20,530 sample for it is Dallas Goddard is just not not getting as 1427 01:33:20,530 --> 01:33:22,290 involved as you. You know he's on the field all 1428 01:33:22,290 --> 01:33:27,410 the time, but the he's not gonna get the opportunities, you know 1429 01:33:27,410 --> 01:33:31,570 only 14% targets per route run when he is getting targeted. 1430 01:33:31,570 --> 01:33:34,770 I to me that I know that 8 out of 6. 1431 01:33:35,170 --> 01:33:40,490 That just feels from watching how he's getting targeted I feel 1432 01:33:40,490 --> 01:33:42,250 like his eight dot is much lower. 1433 01:33:42,250 --> 01:33:47,330 I would need to look at the individual data points, but my 1434 01:33:47,330 --> 01:33:49,850 guess would be that that's getting boosted up by a couple 1435 01:33:49,850 --> 01:33:53,770 deeper targets cuz a lot of the stuff just looks really short 1436 01:33:54,130 --> 01:33:56,970 for him. I mean, 6 isn't terribly deep as 1437 01:33:56,970 --> 01:34:00,790 it is, but. He's just not super involved 1438 01:34:00,790 --> 01:34:02,790 down the field. I, you know, the couple times 1439 01:34:02,790 --> 01:34:05,790 where he's gotten targets, it's like they manufactured stuff for 1440 01:34:05,790 --> 01:34:06,790 him. It's like little tight end 1441 01:34:06,790 --> 01:34:09,830 screen or you know quick quick hitter type stuff. 1442 01:34:09,830 --> 01:34:17,030 So definitely you know he Dallas Goddard is is closer to Kyle 1443 01:34:17,030 --> 01:34:21,830 Pitts than than he is. You know the the actual elite 1444 01:34:21,830 --> 01:34:27,070 tight ends. But anyway that's that's that's 1445 01:34:27,070 --> 01:34:32,710 the last one I needed to talk about on Yeah yeah I think some 1446 01:34:32,750 --> 01:34:36,350 of the some of that a dot. He's only gotten 19 targets this 1447 01:34:36,350 --> 01:34:40,990 year, so like a deep, a deep shot Will will push that up 1448 01:34:40,990 --> 01:34:44,390 quite a bit. He's he he only has a a total of 1449 01:34:44,390 --> 01:34:47,790 113 air yards. 24 games, yeah. Yeah. 1450 01:34:48,550 --> 01:34:52,350 So you need a substantial, I think you've got elite 1451 01:34:52,350 --> 01:34:58,770 contingent value there and that was Goddard and but that is that 1452 01:34:58,770 --> 01:35:01,170 is it sort of. I think, yeah, it's depressing 1453 01:35:01,170 --> 01:35:02,930 it. It does require an injury. 1454 01:35:02,930 --> 01:35:04,610 You're right. It's it's only the contingent 1455 01:35:04,610 --> 01:35:08,570 value there, which is it's crazy to say, you know, through 1456 01:35:08,570 --> 01:35:11,250 through four weeks. I feel very confident that I 1457 01:35:11,250 --> 01:35:13,410 want Hunter Henry over Dallas Scotter. 1458 01:35:13,490 --> 01:35:16,570 I feel very confident that I want Jake Ferguson over Dallas 1459 01:35:16,570 --> 01:35:20,370 Scotter. You know, like in that. 1460 01:35:20,370 --> 01:35:24,130 Just get in a time machine and tell yourself you know, in July. 1461 01:35:24,600 --> 01:35:28,160 That Sam, like people who drafted Dallas Goddard, would 1462 01:35:28,160 --> 01:35:30,400 trade for Sam Laporta in a heartbeat. 1463 01:35:30,480 --> 01:35:34,320 Like, you know, they would pay double for your BBM entry. 1464 01:35:34,440 --> 01:35:36,960 If you were allowed to swap your Dallas Goddard out for Sam 1465 01:35:36,960 --> 01:35:40,040 Laporta, you'd gladly pay $50.00 to to get that. 1466 01:35:40,520 --> 01:35:48,520 Like, oh man, that is pretty. Yeah, pretty rough and pretty 1467 01:35:48,520 --> 01:35:53,980 rough and and and. No, no, no noise about a squeaky 1468 01:35:53,980 --> 01:35:57,220 wheel game eater. So let's say let's move on to 1469 01:35:57,220 --> 01:36:01,900 the backups. Who you know who showed a little 1470 01:36:01,900 --> 01:36:07,460 life this week that I I mean I need to not this is a warning 1471 01:36:07,460 --> 01:36:11,700 this is my my bias for this player but NOA fan in his you 1472 01:36:11,700 --> 01:36:15,180 know that one explosive play that he had that's why I was 1473 01:36:15,180 --> 01:36:19,140 drafting Noa fan cuz he could do that you know and. 1474 01:36:19,740 --> 01:36:25,820 You just gotta hope that between Will Disley and whoever is it 1475 01:36:25,820 --> 01:36:29,220 is, it is Colby Parkinson. The other Yeah, yeah, yeah. 1476 01:36:29,220 --> 01:36:32,460 Between Will Disley and Colby Parkinson, you've gotta just 1477 01:36:32,460 --> 01:36:34,860 hope that no offense, talent wins out. 1478 01:36:34,940 --> 01:36:37,620 And I know that in Seattle they've done the whole like it's 1479 01:36:37,620 --> 01:36:39,420 a party. It's everybody gets to play 1480 01:36:39,420 --> 01:36:41,740 tight end. We all, we're sharing friends, 1481 01:36:41,740 --> 01:36:43,140 you know, no one gets all the work. 1482 01:36:43,660 --> 01:36:46,980 You just have to hope that no offen makes enough of a case. 1483 01:36:47,470 --> 01:36:49,790 That he can't be kept off the field. 1484 01:36:51,430 --> 01:36:54,710 The other, the other problem there though, before we get too 1485 01:36:54,710 --> 01:36:59,630 bullish on Noafant is, you know, we're still not seeing anything 1486 01:36:59,630 --> 01:37:03,790 from JSN, which we'll get to in a little bit, but it's probably 1487 01:37:04,230 --> 01:37:06,350 probably not worth chasing after Noafant. 1488 01:37:06,350 --> 01:37:09,150 But you know, maybe it's like your third tied in. 1489 01:37:09,150 --> 01:37:14,150 I would assume he's still free in resurrection, but I'd be glad 1490 01:37:14,150 --> 01:37:16,590 to have him as my third tied in to take a shot on that. 1491 01:37:17,480 --> 01:37:20,840 Probably only stacked with Gino or or or at the very least 1492 01:37:20,840 --> 01:37:23,320 correlated with the Pittsburgh bring back for week 17. 1493 01:37:25,840 --> 01:37:28,120 But I I think that was worth pointing out. 1494 01:37:28,120 --> 01:37:31,440 I mean Jake Ferguson continues to to do Jake Ferguson things. 1495 01:37:31,440 --> 01:37:37,480 He's getting a ton of targets. I even even with you know not 1496 01:37:37,480 --> 01:37:40,240 being on the field all the time that's still a tight end that's 1497 01:37:40,240 --> 01:37:44,080 worth having just so many targets and. 1498 01:37:44,920 --> 01:37:47,880 When when Tony Pollard isn't getting those those Green Zone 1499 01:37:47,880 --> 01:37:50,520 touches, there's a decent chance that you're getting a random 1500 01:37:50,520 --> 01:37:58,320 Jake Ferguson Green Zone target. So yeah, makes makes sense. 1501 01:37:59,320 --> 01:38:00,920 Oh, there's there's one more here. 1502 01:38:01,560 --> 01:38:05,080 Gerald Everett actually starts to become interesting because 1503 01:38:05,280 --> 01:38:09,320 Donald Parham, who some affectionately refer to as Big 1504 01:38:09,320 --> 01:38:12,880 Dick Donnie, did it, looked like he came down pretty hard on his 1505 01:38:12,880 --> 01:38:14,210 wrist. I'm not. 1506 01:38:14,210 --> 01:38:17,690 I haven't see, haven't looked into how serious the injury is. 1507 01:38:18,570 --> 01:38:21,250 But I've gotta imagine when you're a man as as big as Donald 1508 01:38:21,250 --> 01:38:23,690 Parham and you put all your weight on your wrist, it's 1509 01:38:24,650 --> 01:38:27,850 probably not great. But I I don't think he'll be out 1510 01:38:27,850 --> 01:38:30,090 for a long time. But maybe it's just like a one, 1511 01:38:30,130 --> 01:38:34,410 one or two week little, you know, little spike in usage. 1512 01:38:34,490 --> 01:38:36,250 Maybe Gerald Everett gets a little bit more. 1513 01:38:37,410 --> 01:38:39,890 That's probably more like a DFS thing than anything. 1514 01:38:39,890 --> 01:38:45,120 But yeah, like I was about to suggest that that I'm I'm 1515 01:38:45,120 --> 01:38:47,440 looking up the cell right now, but that he feels. 1516 01:38:47,640 --> 01:38:52,560 Like he's on by this week, so you need you need Donny to yeah, 1517 01:38:52,560 --> 01:38:54,800 you need Donny to miss another week. 1518 01:38:56,160 --> 01:38:59,960 And then you also need Justin Herbert's broken finger on his 1519 01:38:59,960 --> 01:39:02,800 non throwing hand to not really negatively impact the 1520 01:39:03,000 --> 01:39:05,680 production. So it's probably too soon 1521 01:39:05,720 --> 01:39:08,400 something to look at for. Yeah, keep an eye on it. 1522 01:39:10,200 --> 01:39:13,590 Makes that makes sense. Makes sense for sure. 1523 01:39:15,150 --> 01:39:19,030 Yeah, not not seeing a whole lot else here. 1524 01:39:21,790 --> 01:39:25,230 Jake Ferguson obviously love to see this kind of like high 1525 01:39:25,470 --> 01:39:29,870 targets per hour run and and hope that the the routes come 1526 01:39:29,910 --> 01:39:32,510 up. But does sound like the the 1527 01:39:32,510 --> 01:39:37,590 Cowboys have no intention of splitting up those tight end 1528 01:39:37,590 --> 01:39:41,460 routes differently because they like having a I think you said 1529 01:39:41,460 --> 01:39:45,100 on a previous episode that they like having lots of people 1530 01:39:45,100 --> 01:39:47,100 involved. So I'm going to move on just so 1531 01:39:47,100 --> 01:39:54,540 we have time for these receive receiver charts and and so this 1532 01:39:54,540 --> 01:39:56,900 is a little bit different to the rest of our charts. 1533 01:39:57,140 --> 01:40:03,260 We've got weighted targets per hour run on the horizontal axis 1534 01:40:03,300 --> 01:40:05,260 and and weighted targets per hour run. 1535 01:40:05,260 --> 01:40:09,100 It's like targets per hour run, but. 1536 01:40:09,520 --> 01:40:14,880 Their yards is like it's a component of it where and you're 1537 01:40:14,880 --> 01:40:17,960 basically you're saying that targets down the field matter 1538 01:40:17,960 --> 01:40:22,280 more. And so the guys on the right are 1539 01:40:22,280 --> 01:40:24,800 not just getting targeted at a high rate, they're getting 1540 01:40:24,800 --> 01:40:26,800 targeted down the field at a high rate. 1541 01:40:27,360 --> 01:40:31,800 And then and pretty simply we've got fantasy points per game on 1542 01:40:31,800 --> 01:40:34,800 on the vertical axis. And these are all the first 1543 01:40:34,800 --> 01:40:38,280 chart is all guys with 85 to 100% routes run. 1544 01:40:38,770 --> 01:40:43,010 So these are all the locked in almost every downstarters. 1545 01:40:43,370 --> 01:40:46,930 And then in the top right you've got guys playing locked in 1546 01:40:47,570 --> 01:40:51,410 almost every down, dominating targets, scoring lots of 1547 01:40:51,410 --> 01:40:53,650 financing points. You you want your you want your 1548 01:40:53,650 --> 01:40:56,410 drop picks to be in the top right of our chart here. 1549 01:40:58,690 --> 01:41:02,130 Yeah, absolutely. Saw a little bit. 1550 01:41:03,090 --> 01:41:06,330 I mean, like, I guess training in the right direction for Jamar 1551 01:41:06,330 --> 01:41:09,260 Chase, like he's. He's getting targets, but the 1552 01:41:09,260 --> 01:41:13,820 offense looks really poor, so he's he's still, you know, he he 1553 01:41:13,820 --> 01:41:17,620 hasn't made his way up to that top right corner, but he is in 1554 01:41:17,620 --> 01:41:20,180 the top right quadrant, at least now. 1555 01:41:22,020 --> 01:41:27,300 Christian Kirk began moving a little bit further down the 1556 01:41:27,300 --> 01:41:32,860 weighted targets per route run access there and then Calvin 1557 01:41:32,860 --> 01:41:36,060 Ridley. Is starting to fade into the 1558 01:41:36,060 --> 01:41:38,340 he's not. He's not all the way down into 1559 01:41:38,340 --> 01:41:41,380 the Milk carton part of the chart yet, but he's in the 1560 01:41:41,380 --> 01:41:43,580 quadrant where the Milk Carton Boys live. 1561 01:41:44,660 --> 01:41:49,540 He's just been missing. So I'm if I his friends are 1562 01:41:49,540 --> 01:41:52,940 ringing on his mom's doorbell, can the Calvin Ridley come out 1563 01:41:52,940 --> 01:41:55,900 and play? Yeah, and and if I were a Calvin 1564 01:41:55,900 --> 01:41:58,660 Ridley drafter, I wouldn't be so concerned. 1565 01:41:58,660 --> 01:42:01,300 Like, I don't think that he's, he's certainly not dead. 1566 01:42:01,300 --> 01:42:02,540 You know, he's running tons of routes. 1567 01:42:02,540 --> 01:42:07,050 He's out there. But I just, I view it as 1568 01:42:07,370 --> 01:42:10,570 everyone in this offense will get a turn, you know, Christian 1569 01:42:10,570 --> 01:42:12,450 Kirk's gonna have a week. Calvin Ridley's gonna have a 1570 01:42:12,450 --> 01:42:13,850 week. Say, Jones' gonna have a week. 1571 01:42:14,130 --> 01:42:16,930 Every once in a while he'll get a Evan Ingram week, but they're 1572 01:42:16,930 --> 01:42:21,090 all gonna take a turn. And yeah I I would wouldn't 1573 01:42:22,050 --> 01:42:26,770 wouldn't totally panic on Calvin Ridley but like the the ADP that 1574 01:42:26,770 --> 01:42:30,970 we saw at the end of the summer was not efficient for him. 1575 01:42:32,250 --> 01:42:37,930 Yeah yeah super bad and you are talking about pretty a good 1576 01:42:37,930 --> 01:42:39,810 knock. I think we're looking at a good 1577 01:42:39,810 --> 01:42:46,010 knock great NFL receiver and is is is what the dot is telling us 1578 01:42:46,370 --> 01:42:51,050 and so now you're never gonna believe is is a resurrection. 1579 01:42:51,050 --> 01:42:55,410 ADP is still at pick 23. Hilarious. 1580 01:42:55,690 --> 01:42:57,810 Absolutely hilarious. It's because he started so high. 1581 01:42:57,810 --> 01:43:01,890 He started at like the 1-2 turn and the market is just. 1582 01:43:02,580 --> 01:43:05,020 Bad at you know guy guys get anchored. 1583 01:43:05,780 --> 01:43:10,300 It just, yeah. The the lower on the extremes 1584 01:43:10,380 --> 01:43:14,380 guys that are so low, you know move up too slow and guys that 1585 01:43:14,380 --> 01:43:18,220 are really too high move, move down too slow. 1586 01:43:18,540 --> 01:43:21,260 It really feels like to me the guys in the middle are the ones 1587 01:43:21,260 --> 01:43:25,940 that can move closer to efficient than the guys that are 1588 01:43:25,940 --> 01:43:29,660 so extremes. Let me ask you, Calvin Ridley or 1589 01:43:29,660 --> 01:43:38,730 Mary Cooper. I'll take Ridley Okay and Calvin 1590 01:43:38,730 --> 01:43:44,890 Ridley or Brandon Iuk. That one's close. 1591 01:43:44,890 --> 01:43:47,610 It's probably if they're going right next to each other, then 1592 01:43:47,610 --> 01:43:49,450 it's the one where I'm gonna. I'll do some of both. 1593 01:43:50,490 --> 01:43:54,450 Okay and IUK goes about 1/2 around later. 1594 01:43:55,370 --> 01:43:57,250 Yeah, OK. Then I I'd have more IUK than 1595 01:43:57,250 --> 01:43:59,290 Ridley probably, but just slightly. 1596 01:43:59,290 --> 01:44:01,690 Like I'm not. I I wouldn't like be taking IUK 1597 01:44:01,690 --> 01:44:04,650 aggressively over Ridley, but I'd probably end up with more 1598 01:44:04,650 --> 01:44:06,210 IUK than Ridley, if that makes sense. 1599 01:44:07,490 --> 01:44:11,810 Calvin Ridley or Garrett Wilson. Garret Wilson? 1600 01:44:13,210 --> 01:44:15,930 Garrett. Wilson is now going pick 49. 1601 01:44:16,550 --> 01:44:18,550 Cool good good buying opportunity. 1602 01:44:18,790 --> 01:44:22,230 You're just we we talked about it when we did the draft and I 1603 01:44:22,230 --> 01:44:25,190 mean we're we're down bad on our Garrett Wilson cost there. 1604 01:44:25,550 --> 01:44:31,950 But you you we don't want to draft for what's happening right 1605 01:44:31,950 --> 01:44:34,390 now in this exact moment. We're trying to draft for the 1606 01:44:34,390 --> 01:44:39,390 rest of the season from Week 6 onward, and so the the outcomes 1607 01:44:39,390 --> 01:44:42,790 for Garrett Wilson are. Zach Wilson continues to suck. 1608 01:44:42,910 --> 01:44:47,110 OK, if Zach Wilson keeps being really bad, like the the Chiefs 1609 01:44:47,110 --> 01:44:49,670 game was just a total anomalies. Never. 1610 01:44:49,670 --> 01:44:51,710 That's his best game he's going to have this season. 1611 01:44:52,030 --> 01:44:54,390 He is not going to remain the quarterback for the whole 1612 01:44:54,390 --> 01:44:57,350 season. And and then when you're looking 1613 01:44:57,350 --> 01:45:01,270 at when Garrett Wilson gets a better quarterback, it it's 1614 01:45:01,270 --> 01:45:04,750 going to be later in the season and in the most important weeks, 1615 01:45:04,750 --> 01:45:06,270 in the playoff weeks where all the money is. 1616 01:45:06,270 --> 01:45:09,880 So that's like. To me, it feels like a smash for 1617 01:45:09,880 --> 01:45:13,720 Garrett Wilson at pick 49 and then in the outcomes, where Zach 1618 01:45:13,720 --> 01:45:16,520 Wilson remains the quarterback for the whole season, it's 1619 01:45:16,520 --> 01:45:19,560 because he looks more like Zach Wilson against the Chiefs did. 1620 01:45:19,880 --> 01:45:23,360 Where he's not, you know, he's not a world beater, but he is 1621 01:45:23,360 --> 01:45:25,760 throwing the ball to his best player. 1622 01:45:25,760 --> 01:45:28,560 He's giving giving his playmakers a chance to make a 1623 01:45:28,560 --> 01:45:32,080 play and he had a couple really good throws in that game. 1624 01:45:32,080 --> 01:45:35,410 It wasn't just like. You know, I don't want to get 1625 01:45:35,410 --> 01:45:37,490 here and stand Zach Wilson too hard. 1626 01:45:37,490 --> 01:45:42,410 But yeah, the it's a huge overreaction to have Garrett 1627 01:45:42,410 --> 01:45:45,490 Wilson going after Calvin Ridley in my opinion. 1628 01:45:47,330 --> 01:45:48,570 Agree. Agree. 1629 01:45:48,930 --> 01:45:51,770 And so you can you can sort of see Garrett Wilson. 1630 01:45:52,170 --> 01:45:55,730 He isn't he's in this section of the chart where right next to 1631 01:45:55,730 --> 01:45:58,250 chase. He's literally right next to 1632 01:45:58,250 --> 01:46:03,130 chase in the chart where he's getting targeted at a high rate 1633 01:46:03,620 --> 01:46:07,580 he's on the field all the time the the the points aren't there 1634 01:46:07,580 --> 01:46:12,940 because of Zach Wilson inefficiency and but that's it's 1635 01:46:12,940 --> 01:46:17,460 that's this is pretty clearly a situation where and and you gave 1636 01:46:17,460 --> 01:46:21,260 the more particular one but it's a situation that we're talking 1637 01:46:21,260 --> 01:46:25,100 about where you have this extreme extreme talent where 1638 01:46:25,100 --> 01:46:29,420 you're getting a discount because of the situation and I 1639 01:46:29,820 --> 01:46:34,950 like talent doesn't really change that much like a barring 1640 01:46:34,950 --> 01:46:38,510 injury and stuff like that but situation can change in an 1641 01:46:38,630 --> 01:46:43,990 instant like I I I don't wanna like make this sound like more 1642 01:46:43,990 --> 01:46:49,230 lucky than it is but the the The Jets GM could be on the phone 1643 01:46:49,230 --> 01:46:53,190 right now could be at this very moment talking to somebody about 1644 01:46:53,990 --> 01:46:57,750 trading for a quarterback for like a quarterback that could 1645 01:46:57,750 --> 01:47:01,240 serve for them and that's an instantly an upgrade like he's 1646 01:47:01,240 --> 01:47:07,080 probably not but like stuff like this happens like the NFL 1647 01:47:07,080 --> 01:47:11,400 changes on a dime and and so I always wanna be taking players 1648 01:47:11,400 --> 01:47:15,800 where the the extreme talent is there and it it just takes a 1649 01:47:15,800 --> 01:47:19,640 small change in situation for to to unlock a lot of value. 1650 01:47:20,280 --> 01:47:23,920 Yeah, very, very well said. And then we we touched on this 1651 01:47:23,920 --> 01:47:27,080 guy earlier when we weren't on the wide receiver charts, but. 1652 01:47:27,900 --> 01:47:30,100 You know with how he plays with his quarterback and that's Chris 1653 01:47:30,100 --> 01:47:32,140 Olave. You know, former college 1654 01:47:32,140 --> 01:47:35,260 teammate of Garrett Wilson and they're they're right along, you 1655 01:47:35,260 --> 01:47:38,580 know same level of fantasy point per game production. 1656 01:47:38,940 --> 01:47:41,820 Olave is getting even more weighted targets per route run 1657 01:47:42,420 --> 01:47:46,660 and I just think that you're gonna, you know in season long 1658 01:47:46,660 --> 01:47:49,220 you might have a good opportunity to acquire a Lave. 1659 01:47:49,740 --> 01:47:52,260 I'd try and go do that if you can. 1660 01:47:52,260 --> 01:47:54,620 It's the same way that I described, like playing Garrett 1661 01:47:54,620 --> 01:47:59,420 Carr and the whole Saints passing right offense, and we 1662 01:47:59,420 --> 01:48:00,580 want to buy it. Yeah. 1663 01:48:00,580 --> 01:48:03,980 Wait, wait this week and then attack aggressively go after it. 1664 01:48:03,980 --> 01:48:12,980 So makes sense for sure, and we already touched on the Falcons, 1665 01:48:12,980 --> 01:48:17,620 but very alarming to see Drake London in the loser part of the 1666 01:48:17,820 --> 01:48:21,820 the chart. And just very alarming because 1667 01:48:22,900 --> 01:48:26,140 he should, he should be sort of like able to concentrate 1668 01:48:26,810 --> 01:48:31,570 progress on the field and the fact that he's not in like that 1669 01:48:31,570 --> 01:48:34,730 kind of offense is is pretty significant on our bill, I 1670 01:48:34,730 --> 01:48:37,570 think. I've got a got an interesting 1671 01:48:37,690 --> 01:48:40,330 question for you here. I've heard a lot of people talk 1672 01:48:40,330 --> 01:48:43,130 about Tyler Boyd as a good waiver ad. 1673 01:48:43,370 --> 01:48:46,730 You know, with with T Higgins broken ribs, you know, probably 1674 01:48:46,730 --> 01:48:49,850 going to miss a couple weeks or if he does play like, is he 1675 01:48:49,850 --> 01:48:53,170 really going to be able to to be out there for a lot of snaps? 1676 01:48:53,590 --> 01:48:55,670 So I've heard a lot of people talk of Tyler Boyd. 1677 01:48:55,670 --> 01:48:57,750 As you know his opportunity could increase. 1678 01:48:57,990 --> 01:48:59,590 You know, maybe that's a good waiver AD. 1679 01:49:00,030 --> 01:49:03,190 What do you think of that? Are you are you buying the the 1680 01:49:03,190 --> 01:49:11,110 Tyler Boyd opportunity increase here and so Tyler Boyd it it 1681 01:49:11,150 --> 01:49:15,230 it's sort of like it's funny because if if I thought Joe 1682 01:49:15,230 --> 01:49:22,540 Burrow was healthy I would I totally would be buying the that 1683 01:49:22,540 --> 01:49:25,740 the increased opportunity. I think that toddler Boyd is 1684 01:49:25,740 --> 01:49:32,260 like a pretty good player and and that the fact that he's now 1685 01:49:32,260 --> 01:49:38,620 the second best receiver there like I I I sort of do expect 1686 01:49:39,620 --> 01:49:49,430 better things for toilet Boyd and but it it's like well it's 1687 01:49:49,430 --> 01:49:52,750 better things but in an offense that's really really struggling 1688 01:49:53,550 --> 01:49:59,790 like I'm maybe putting more weight on them on the Joe Burrow 1689 01:49:59,790 --> 01:50:06,910 injury and then maybe I should be and but I I do think there 1690 01:50:06,990 --> 01:50:10,590 I'm putting a lot of stock in the in the like really low depth 1691 01:50:10,590 --> 01:50:18,810 of target for Burrow and the anemic performance and it's like 1692 01:50:18,890 --> 01:50:23,490 yes I think he's going to get higher opportunity but unless 1693 01:50:23,490 --> 01:50:29,410 it's PPR like and and and even in PPR like what's that like six 1694 01:50:29,410 --> 01:50:33,930 targets where he gets 40 yards and and and low chance of a 1695 01:50:33,930 --> 01:50:41,810 touchdown So he's probably your 10 points guy and it's like 1696 01:50:42,370 --> 01:50:45,370 maybe that's a plug and play and and and you hope that you get 1697 01:50:45,370 --> 01:50:53,340 that you you rack up those catches but I I I I I need I 1698 01:50:53,340 --> 01:50:58,020 need Burrow to plan much better for for for Boyd to interest me. 1699 01:50:58,580 --> 01:51:01,260 So here's a, you know, quick, quick waiver decision. 1700 01:51:01,420 --> 01:51:04,460 Probably both these players available in a lot of leagues, 1701 01:51:05,420 --> 01:51:13,180 Tyler Boyd or Jamison Williams off waivers and I I'm more 1702 01:51:13,180 --> 01:51:15,180 interested in Jensen. Yeah, me too. 1703 01:51:16,660 --> 01:51:21,820 And I mean, it's like, it's hard to be overly confident in 1704 01:51:21,820 --> 01:51:26,780 Jameson and given his his preseason struggles and like 1705 01:51:27,060 --> 01:51:31,060 lack of production last year and well, you're you're just, you're 1706 01:51:31,060 --> 01:51:34,180 still talking about somebody who was like the best but the best 1707 01:51:34,180 --> 01:51:40,140 receiver for Alabama. And I'm like a team stacked with 1708 01:51:40,140 --> 01:51:45,060 five star recruits who immediately, like, was a huge 1709 01:51:45,060 --> 01:51:49,450 part of their offense. Very important and elite speed. 1710 01:51:52,210 --> 01:51:55,490 He does feel like a much stronger bet than Tolar Boyd, 1711 01:51:55,490 --> 01:51:58,330 that's for sure. Yeah, cuz it's not about the 1712 01:51:58,330 --> 01:52:01,890 confidence you have in Jamison Williams versus the confidence 1713 01:52:01,890 --> 01:52:05,810 you have in Tyler Boyd. Like Tyler Boyd produces for you 1714 01:52:05,810 --> 01:52:09,450 at a higher frequency. But the range of outcomes for 1715 01:52:09,450 --> 01:52:12,490 Jamison, like Tyler Boyd's range of outcomes, we know exactly 1716 01:52:12,490 --> 01:52:14,410 what it is, right? We know what Tyler Boyd is. 1717 01:52:14,410 --> 01:52:16,090 We know what his best games look like. 1718 01:52:16,570 --> 01:52:20,010 We know what his you know, mean outcomes look like for Jamison 1719 01:52:20,010 --> 01:52:29,890 Williams no matter how uhoh. Well we lost Rico here so we'll 1720 01:52:30,210 --> 01:52:34,090 we'll continue. But we we know what Boyd is for 1721 01:52:34,090 --> 01:52:36,530 Jamison Williams. The range of outcomes is still 1722 01:52:36,730 --> 01:52:41,490 unknown. We don't know what he is so we 1723 01:52:41,490 --> 01:52:44,220 can sorry. You're you're OK. 1724 01:52:44,700 --> 01:52:47,980 I I I think it's clearly a an opportunity to take the bet on 1725 01:52:47,980 --> 01:52:51,060 the guy with the wider range of outcomes and when you win it's a 1726 01:52:51,060 --> 01:52:53,940 big win and when you miss whatever you missed out on Tyler 1727 01:52:53,940 --> 01:52:56,020 Boyd or or you know waiver equivalent. 1728 01:52:56,180 --> 01:53:00,340 But I I didn't have anyone else on this chart that I felt like 1729 01:53:00,340 --> 01:53:02,020 we needed to spend time on. Did you? 1730 01:53:02,860 --> 01:53:09,330 No, no. We can move on and I I guess 1731 01:53:09,330 --> 01:53:12,610 Dotson continued to be concerning and but we've talked 1732 01:53:12,610 --> 01:53:16,930 about that before more saying like continuation of the trend 1733 01:53:17,370 --> 01:53:20,370 that we were talking about. So maybe slightly more 1734 01:53:20,370 --> 01:53:24,050 concerning that he's just not able to get at this kind of 1735 01:53:24,050 --> 01:53:29,090 concentrated targets on the fields and so doesn't feel great 1736 01:53:29,090 --> 01:53:29,850 there. I'm I'm. 1737 01:53:30,130 --> 01:53:33,690 I'm getting increasingly more concerned with Johanne Dotson. 1738 01:53:34,970 --> 01:53:40,850 Yeah, so moving on. So these are still starters and 1739 01:53:40,850 --> 01:53:49,850 so 70 to 85% routes run and but maybe guys where the the they're 1740 01:53:49,850 --> 01:53:52,730 not pure, they're not like 100% route runners. 1741 01:53:54,730 --> 01:54:01,490 And Tyriq as ever he liked the finds this chart where he he 1742 01:54:02,250 --> 01:54:06,050 he's a little bit older so he does take some some plays off 1743 01:54:06,630 --> 01:54:12,830 but like completely like 90% way to target spread run is insane 1744 01:54:13,190 --> 01:54:15,830 25 points per game. Very good. 1745 01:54:16,990 --> 01:54:21,830 Love seeing Brandon IU here where he's like clearly the 1746 01:54:21,830 --> 01:54:28,270 team's like preferred deep threat and he's been able to 1747 01:54:28,270 --> 01:54:33,590 convert that into into points and so that is that is great to 1748 01:54:33,590 --> 01:54:35,550 see for Brandon IU drafters I think. 1749 01:54:38,970 --> 01:54:41,890 Yeah, absolutely. And I mean Nico, Nico Collins 1750 01:54:41,930 --> 01:54:46,770 continuing to be a huge value where he was drafted, delivering 1751 01:54:46,770 --> 01:54:49,570 legitimate Spike weeks, really exciting. 1752 01:54:50,450 --> 01:54:55,330 Mike Evans exited with a hamstring injury, But I mean, 1753 01:54:55,570 --> 01:54:58,730 for anyone drafting Mike Evans, it's been a huge win so far this 1754 01:54:58,730 --> 01:55:00,570 season. You know, Baker has been more 1755 01:55:00,570 --> 01:55:04,660 than competent, able to produce. For him, from what I've heard, 1756 01:55:04,660 --> 01:55:06,620 the hamstring isn't super serious. 1757 01:55:06,620 --> 01:55:12,220 So if you know in a season long where you can trade, if if you 1758 01:55:12,220 --> 01:55:14,380 can get Mike Evans for cheap because someone's worried about 1759 01:55:14,380 --> 01:55:17,180 the hamstring and maybe they just don't think it's 1760 01:55:17,180 --> 01:55:19,900 sustainable, maybe maybe go and grab him there. 1761 01:55:21,620 --> 01:55:25,500 You know who I may need to capitulate on already? 1762 01:55:26,620 --> 01:55:29,300 Michael Wilson. I think in in week one might 1763 01:55:29,300 --> 01:55:32,750 have been week 1 or Week 2. I said something to the effect 1764 01:55:32,910 --> 01:55:35,630 of Michael Wilson was a figment of our imagination. 1765 01:55:35,630 --> 01:55:38,990 You know, Big Best ball just made him up to trick you into 1766 01:55:38,990 --> 01:55:42,350 spending your last round pick on a guy with a made-up name. 1767 01:55:43,430 --> 01:55:47,430 No, he was out there. He was out there in force, you 1768 01:55:47,430 --> 01:55:51,070 know, running lots of rounds. My accountant is out in the NFL 1769 01:55:51,070 --> 01:55:55,190 scoring touchdowns. Yes, he is 2 of them and. 1770 01:55:55,560 --> 01:55:59,160 Yeah, he, I mean, he was as advertised and he's a big body 1771 01:55:59,160 --> 01:56:01,240 guy. They, they seem to like him. 1772 01:56:03,240 --> 01:56:04,960 Yeah. I mean, if you're drafting 1773 01:56:04,960 --> 01:56:07,000 Michael Wilson, you gotta be happy with that already. 1774 01:56:07,000 --> 01:56:11,680 I mean that's basically already paid off his ADP, so definitely 1775 01:56:11,880 --> 01:56:13,800 gotta gotta capitulate on that one. 1776 01:56:15,960 --> 01:56:20,760 The other here is super interesting I think where now 1777 01:56:20,760 --> 01:56:26,130 he's he's above he's been above 85% routes run week tree in four 1778 01:56:26,730 --> 01:56:34,610 and 26% targets per out per route and we treat 35% in week 4 1779 01:56:35,090 --> 01:56:38,570 like very firmly in the top right maybe not up with hanging 1780 01:56:38,570 --> 01:56:46,610 out with Ayuk and but seems like he's emerging as like maybe not 1781 01:56:46,610 --> 01:56:49,690 a star but like top quality NFL player. 1782 01:56:51,610 --> 01:56:52,930 I'm. I'm still. 1783 01:56:53,830 --> 01:56:58,030 I'm hesitant to buy it from dubs I I think it's it would be not 1784 01:56:58,030 --> 01:57:02,510 too difficult for because I don't think as as far as a 1785 01:57:02,510 --> 01:57:08,790 talent level he's I I don't know if he belongs in this area of 1786 01:57:08,790 --> 01:57:11,790 the chart I don't think he's a Nico Collins or a Brandon IU or 1787 01:57:11,790 --> 01:57:15,790 certainly not a Mike Evans or Tyree kill level talent. 1788 01:57:16,910 --> 01:57:19,230 You know, I mean shoot there's lots of guys on this chart that 1789 01:57:19,230 --> 01:57:22,550 I I would take any day over him or he's he's looking better with 1790 01:57:22,550 --> 01:57:25,620 where he's at. But I didn't think and on the 1791 01:57:25,620 --> 01:57:27,700 next chart we'll see his teammate Jayden Reid. 1792 01:57:28,540 --> 01:57:32,860 I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the season Reid has 1793 01:57:33,180 --> 01:57:35,460 has stolen more work away from dubs. 1794 01:57:35,460 --> 01:57:38,820 I I think that it's it's going to follow that traditional 1795 01:57:38,820 --> 01:57:42,460 rookie receiver trajectory where it takes, you know, Reid's going 1796 01:57:42,460 --> 01:57:44,060 to have to earn more and more targets. 1797 01:57:44,060 --> 01:57:48,220 He's going to earn more routes, earn time on the field and 1798 01:57:48,220 --> 01:57:52,860 eventually be able to take over that role from Dubs. 1799 01:57:53,870 --> 01:57:56,510 And we still have the variable of Christian Watson in there, 1800 01:57:56,510 --> 01:57:59,590 who wasn't, didn't seem like he was fully healthy. 1801 01:57:59,590 --> 01:58:02,470 Didn't play a full compliment of snaps, didn't get a ton of 1802 01:58:02,470 --> 01:58:06,630 targets. So this, the Packers situation 1803 01:58:06,630 --> 01:58:09,790 is really interesting to me. It's definitely one to watch. 1804 01:58:11,950 --> 01:58:15,670 I'm, I'm not entirely decided how it would play it. 1805 01:58:15,670 --> 01:58:18,110 I think I might be biased because I really like Jayden 1806 01:58:18,110 --> 01:58:21,390 Reed as a prospect and I was not sold on Christian Watson. 1807 01:58:22,720 --> 01:58:28,840 But I I I'm just curious what your what your what was 1808 01:58:28,840 --> 01:58:33,640 concerning for you in Romeo dubs is that talent sort of like 1809 01:58:33,640 --> 01:58:37,480 profile because these are pretty these are pretty good numbers 1810 01:58:37,640 --> 01:58:42,680 like double digits targets and like high targets for a run and 1811 01:58:42,680 --> 01:58:46,160 seems to be converting it decently well and. 1812 01:58:47,840 --> 01:58:52,400 Yeah, I I think it's more that he's just he's a beneficiary of 1813 01:58:52,520 --> 01:58:56,040 circumstance here. There someone, you know if the 1814 01:58:56,040 --> 01:59:00,120 offense is going to go out and not put up 0 yards, someone's 1815 01:59:00,120 --> 01:59:02,800 gotta catch some passes, right? Like, and Christian Watson's 1816 01:59:02,800 --> 01:59:06,880 gone and it's rookie Jayden Reed and Romeo dubs and gosh, I I 1817 01:59:06,880 --> 01:59:08,920 can't even what? What are some of the other 1818 01:59:09,440 --> 01:59:13,200 Samarra Toure like? Yeah, the Arsenal Center half. 1819 01:59:13,960 --> 01:59:17,710 Yeah, so like. I I think for me my concern with 1820 01:59:17,710 --> 01:59:21,750 dubs is less about what he's been doing so far this season. 1821 01:59:22,070 --> 01:59:25,150 That's more about like his his prospect profile coming out of 1822 01:59:25,150 --> 01:59:28,550 college. He's a sub athlete you know his 1823 01:59:28,550 --> 01:59:33,870 his production in college was just OK you know he's 64th 1824 01:59:33,870 --> 01:59:38,830 percentile college dominator. You know not didn't didn't play 1825 01:59:38,830 --> 01:59:40,310 against world beating competition. 1826 01:59:40,310 --> 01:59:43,070 What's in Nevada? You know, later Draft pick, 1827 01:59:43,150 --> 01:59:46,850 late, late fourth round? Did have a decent breakout age, 1828 01:59:46,850 --> 01:59:51,010 but for me, I don't know, I I didn't think that Dubs was 1829 01:59:51,090 --> 01:59:53,290 anything particularly special as a prospect. 1830 01:59:53,290 --> 01:59:55,730 And so maybe I'm anchored too much to that and I'm I'm 1831 01:59:56,170 --> 01:59:58,890 counting that more than I should and I should be paying more 1832 01:59:58,890 --> 02:00:03,130 attention to his production in the NFL against NFL caliber 1833 02:00:03,130 --> 02:00:08,410 talent. But I just think it's, I think 1834 02:00:08,490 --> 02:00:12,370 there's opportunity to be won in this offense. 1835 02:00:12,370 --> 02:00:14,330 There's there's target share to be had. 1836 02:00:15,080 --> 02:00:17,440 And I don't know that he's going to be able to hold off. 1837 02:00:18,320 --> 02:00:21,360 You know, if you gave me dubs against the field, where the 1838 02:00:21,360 --> 02:00:24,240 field is, all the other Packers receiving options, I'm going to 1839 02:00:24,240 --> 02:00:25,640 take the field. I'll take, you know, Luke, 1840 02:00:25,640 --> 02:00:27,320 Buster, Christian Watson, Jaden Reed. 1841 02:00:27,760 --> 02:00:30,080 I don't think that Dubs has such a stranglehold on that. 1842 02:00:30,080 --> 02:00:33,080 He's going to be the guy to own in this offense. 1843 02:00:33,080 --> 02:00:35,800 So that's that's all. But I where where is he going in 1844 02:00:35,800 --> 02:00:38,720 resurrection? That's that. 1845 02:00:38,920 --> 02:00:42,680 Let's find out. So we're looking for dubs. 1846 02:00:43,990 --> 02:00:51,990 He is going to take 8585 and what about Reed and and 1847 02:00:51,990 --> 02:00:58,710 Musgrave? Reed is going 121 Okay, Musgrave 1848 02:00:58,950 --> 02:01:04,190 is going and sorry, one second. I had to filter down to the 1849 02:01:04,190 --> 02:01:09,950 receivers. Most grave is going at pick 101, 1850 02:01:10,190 --> 02:01:12,550 actually 132 I should say. Oh, OK. 1851 02:01:14,110 --> 02:01:18,790 Yeah. Gosh, I mean, I I guess you're 1852 02:01:18,790 --> 02:01:23,030 not getting such a large discount on the on read then 1853 02:01:23,550 --> 02:01:29,150 that I probably just spread the bets around the offense and 1854 02:01:29,270 --> 02:01:32,590 probably just I I would assume is Christian Watson still going 1855 02:01:32,590 --> 02:01:40,910 way too expensive? Christian Watson is going and 1856 02:01:43,070 --> 02:01:45,710 he's going 45. So, yeah, Disgusting. 1857 02:01:45,710 --> 02:01:47,790 Yeah. OK, so I'd have 0% Christian 1858 02:01:47,790 --> 02:01:51,270 Watson and I'd be overweight. Read. 1859 02:01:51,390 --> 02:01:54,510 Probably neutral dubs, and probably neutral on Musgrave. 1860 02:01:56,230 --> 02:02:00,230 So yeah, I I I do think it's interesting when. 1861 02:02:03,960 --> 02:02:07,400 Prospects are like like just for to go back to dubs. 1862 02:02:07,400 --> 02:02:13,560 I know that lots of analysts did rate at dubs like decently high 1863 02:02:14,320 --> 02:02:19,080 and and then he's a like it's not like he's a vet and like 1864 02:02:19,080 --> 02:02:23,080 this is like some like 4 year breakout and it's two games or 1865 02:02:23,080 --> 02:02:25,360 whatever. He's a second year player, which 1866 02:02:25,360 --> 02:02:29,160 is traditionally when most receiver breakouts happen like 1867 02:02:29,160 --> 02:02:31,080 that. That is the biggest jump for 1868 02:02:31,080 --> 02:02:34,640 receivers. And so that's sort of why I'm 1869 02:02:34,640 --> 02:02:40,280 buying it a little bit more than you, but definitely get that the 1870 02:02:40,280 --> 02:02:45,440 dominator rating was not special and he was a four year starter 1871 02:02:45,600 --> 02:02:49,400 in Michigan. So definitely get the pushback 1872 02:02:49,400 --> 02:02:53,400 there and but that's Reed was Michigan. 1873 02:02:53,400 --> 02:02:59,410 Dubs was Nevada, but. Did I say Michigan Yeah but but 1874 02:02:59,530 --> 02:03:01,370 you're you're actually you're getting me to come around a 1875 02:03:01,370 --> 02:03:05,210 little more on dubs. I I think I might I I'm just 1876 02:03:06,650 --> 02:03:10,130 yeah I I'm probably anchored too much to my priors I should I 1877 02:03:10,130 --> 02:03:12,330 should come around on dubs a little bit if I'm if I'm that 1878 02:03:12,330 --> 02:03:15,290 low on Christian Watson should probably just come around on 1879 02:03:15,290 --> 02:03:16,730 them. Unless I'm really just saying 1880 02:03:16,730 --> 02:03:19,530 that this is one of those offenses like we talked about 1881 02:03:19,530 --> 02:03:21,610 where it's not gonna be an offense that produces. 1882 02:03:22,250 --> 02:03:25,130 But I think that they're, I think they're play calling, I 1883 02:03:25,130 --> 02:03:28,780 think they're, you know, they're they're gonna do enough to right 1884 02:03:29,180 --> 02:03:31,940 at their prices. I agree there there's enough 1885 02:03:31,940 --> 02:03:35,300 going on in Green Bay that you will want a piece or two. 1886 02:03:39,820 --> 02:03:45,780 So this chart is it's it's a little bit hard to make out and 1887 02:03:45,780 --> 02:03:48,580 just because some of these players bunched so close 1888 02:03:48,580 --> 02:03:53,380 together and we've got Jerry, Judy here, he's just over. 1889 02:03:53,380 --> 02:03:57,100 She's just north of 50% and way the targets per run. 1890 02:03:58,010 --> 02:04:06,370 And and just under 10 points a game and which doesn't it 1891 02:04:06,370 --> 02:04:08,170 doesn't feel great going out as cost. 1892 02:04:08,170 --> 02:04:11,970 It's not awful coming off the injury but it definitely it 1893 02:04:11,970 --> 02:04:17,650 doesn't feel great and based on its cost I'm I'm starting to get 1894 02:04:18,170 --> 02:04:20,330 a smidge concern with that. Would you be there? 1895 02:04:20,810 --> 02:04:22,930 Yeah. The the thing with that this 1896 02:04:22,930 --> 02:04:26,490 chart doesn't incorporate in the weighted targets per route run 1897 02:04:26,650 --> 02:04:29,360 is the amount of dog in the player. 1898 02:04:29,640 --> 02:04:34,240 And Jerry Judy has exactly 0 dog for anyone that didn't watch 1899 02:04:34,360 --> 02:04:37,120 that Broncos Bears game. And I don't blame you for not 1900 02:04:37,120 --> 02:04:43,200 watching it. There was a play that got me to 1901 02:04:43,200 --> 02:04:47,280 swear off ever drafting a single share of Jerry Judy again for as 1902 02:04:47,280 --> 02:04:50,560 long as he's an NFL player. And hand it I'm just gonna this 1903 02:04:50,560 --> 02:04:52,280 is a hill I'm gonna die on hand to. 1904 02:04:52,280 --> 02:04:54,880 God, I I've drafted my last Jerry, Judy share. 1905 02:04:55,440 --> 02:04:58,400 But it's a it's a play where Russ has bought some time in the 1906 02:04:58,400 --> 02:05:00,280 pocket. It's gotten extended a little 1907 02:05:00,280 --> 02:05:03,480 bit and Judy has beat his man downfield. 1908 02:05:03,480 --> 02:05:07,920 He's he's got separation. He's about to blow by the safety 1909 02:05:08,480 --> 02:05:12,760 and the safety doesn't really take the correct angle to be 1910 02:05:12,760 --> 02:05:19,720 able to to cover him. Russ lets it rip and this just 1911 02:05:19,720 --> 02:05:22,000 looks like either a easy completion. 1912 02:05:22,000 --> 02:05:23,480 This is you know Russ does this all day. 1913 02:05:23,480 --> 02:05:27,110 You know, moon shot default right into the arms of his 1914 02:05:27,110 --> 02:05:28,590 receiver. Easy peasy. 1915 02:05:28,910 --> 02:05:32,790 You know. And the safety, the angle that 1916 02:05:32,790 --> 02:05:36,430 he took, he was going to collide with Judy on the route. 1917 02:05:36,790 --> 02:05:41,230 As long as Judy kept running and he's got a right to the ball he 1918 02:05:41,230 --> 02:05:44,470 can he can just keep running and let the safety collide with him. 1919 02:05:44,510 --> 02:05:47,790 Get the Pi call easy 50 yard chunk. 1920 02:05:47,790 --> 02:05:49,430 You know. And the offense needed it. 1921 02:05:49,430 --> 02:05:51,750 They were they were down to the Bears at that point. 1922 02:05:52,070 --> 02:05:55,260 They hadn't got much going and instead of finishing his route 1923 02:05:55,700 --> 02:06:01,020 he just pulled up and just like capitulated and said I don't 1924 02:06:01,020 --> 02:06:03,460 really wanna run in to this defender. 1925 02:06:03,500 --> 02:06:08,100 That sounds not fun and I'm good off that I don't need my 1926 02:06:08,100 --> 02:06:09,900 receipt. Your weighted targets per route 1927 02:06:09,900 --> 02:06:11,500 run don't actually mean anything. 1928 02:06:11,500 --> 02:06:13,860 If on half of those targets you're just giving up cuz you're 1929 02:06:13,860 --> 02:06:16,960 scared of getting hit. Like I'm good off of that. 1930 02:06:16,960 --> 02:06:19,280 I don't need any Jerry Judy. Probably an emotional 1931 02:06:19,280 --> 02:06:20,680 overreaction. Don't act. 1932 02:06:20,680 --> 02:06:22,080 This is not actionable. Don't. 1933 02:06:22,240 --> 02:06:24,800 Don't pay attention to me. But I'm never drafting. 1934 02:06:24,800 --> 02:06:27,800 Jerry Yeah, not at not financial advice. 1935 02:06:31,080 --> 02:06:35,520 I mean, just just to to to provide some pushback on that. 1936 02:06:35,960 --> 02:06:39,480 And you do have this thing where he was the most talented player 1937 02:06:39,720 --> 02:06:43,840 on like a loaded, loaded Alabama team. 1938 02:06:44,560 --> 02:06:50,080 Like he has been solid as an NFL receiver and hasn't quite worked 1939 02:06:50,120 --> 02:07:02,520 out so far but 77 and in resurrection so probably just 1940 02:07:04,240 --> 02:07:10,840 efficient to a smidge and over well you know I I I think that's 1941 02:07:10,920 --> 02:07:13,320 that's probably about right and and and. 1942 02:07:14,180 --> 02:07:17,980 That's probably about right and given that the the the Broncos 1943 02:07:17,980 --> 02:07:22,820 offense has been able to to put up points their defense sucks so 1944 02:07:22,820 --> 02:07:25,740 they're going to be in in in shootouts or in in catch up mode 1945 02:07:25,740 --> 02:07:31,380 every week and but that definitely definitely a little 1946 02:07:31,380 --> 02:07:39,180 bit concerning that he's he's I guess he hasn't been able to put 1947 02:07:39,180 --> 02:07:42,580 up points and and he hasn't been able to earn targets over 1948 02:07:42,580 --> 02:07:45,160 Sutton. In a way that I was sort of like 1949 02:07:45,160 --> 02:07:50,720 expecting but totally yeah, totally understand the the lack 1950 02:07:50,720 --> 02:07:57,760 of dog point. So who else have we got here? 1951 02:07:58,600 --> 02:08:02,320 I I don't think anybody like really stands out here and you 1952 02:08:02,320 --> 02:08:07,200 do see the Andre Hopkins and right out here, but it's it's 1953 02:08:07,200 --> 02:08:09,640 like it's not even that useful because he's only sworn 10 1954 02:08:09,640 --> 02:08:11,990 points. It's more of a sign of it. 1955 02:08:12,030 --> 02:08:19,230 It feels like more of a sign that the the text Titans passing 1956 02:08:19,230 --> 02:08:23,750 game is just anemic and and and sort of nonfunctional that 1957 02:08:23,750 --> 02:08:28,110 somebody can be at 80% where the target Spirit run and ten points 1958 02:08:28,110 --> 02:08:31,230 a game. Yeah, you're you're only you're 1959 02:08:31,230 --> 02:08:35,070 out there to DeAndre Hopkins being really useful is that 1960 02:08:35,510 --> 02:08:39,350 somehow the Titans get together and and get a good passing 1961 02:08:39,350 --> 02:08:45,280 offense which seems then. Yeah and and like we talked 1962 02:08:45,280 --> 02:08:48,680 about last week actually in like seeing Trail and Burks come out 1963 02:08:48,680 --> 02:08:50,400 here on the way to target spread run. 1964 02:08:50,400 --> 02:08:56,600 But again and you need a you need functional passing game for 1965 02:08:56,600 --> 02:09:02,000 this to for this to be useful. Any anybody else you you want to 1966 02:09:02,000 --> 02:09:03,760 talk about here before you move on to the last chart? 1967 02:09:04,920 --> 02:09:07,320 No, I think we can can go to the last part here. 1968 02:09:08,450 --> 02:09:14,010 So super spread out here which makes it much easier to read and 1969 02:09:15,450 --> 02:09:20,610 a little bit interesting that Christian Watson and even on 1970 02:09:20,610 --> 02:09:29,970 limited routes and what we got 40 to 50% routes run he's he's 1971 02:09:29,970 --> 02:09:33,330 still sold 50% weighted targets for our run. 1972 02:09:34,250 --> 02:09:37,450 So I think I think that's somewhat interesting in that. 1973 02:09:38,870 --> 02:09:44,310 Part of like what made him hit so well last year was that he 1974 02:09:45,390 --> 02:09:47,270 had a really high weighted target spirit run. 1975 02:09:47,270 --> 02:09:52,550 He was he was getting lots of down the field shots. 1976 02:09:52,550 --> 02:09:57,470 Last year where it doesn't feel like because normally on these 1977 02:09:57,470 --> 02:10:01,030 starters and and maybe it is, maybe it is just a hamstring 1978 02:10:01,030 --> 02:10:04,710 injury and he's been worked back but when when you have, when you 1979 02:10:04,710 --> 02:10:10,250 have guys with low root chairs. You see the one of them that 1980 02:10:10,250 --> 02:10:13,210 really get involved in those limited roots. 1981 02:10:13,770 --> 02:10:17,090 So I think that is like that's something to watch. 1982 02:10:18,130 --> 02:10:24,210 But that low number for Christian Watson, Yeah, the the 1983 02:10:24,210 --> 02:10:27,730 guy I was really interested in this week, I mean everyone else 1984 02:10:27,730 --> 02:10:31,130 on this chart kind of was, you know, business as usual. 1985 02:10:31,530 --> 02:10:34,730 But the guy that I was really excited about was Lawndale. 1986 02:10:35,890 --> 02:10:38,980 The Giants have a terrible offense. 1987 02:10:38,980 --> 02:10:41,380 It looks real. They've had two good quarters of 1988 02:10:41,380 --> 02:10:43,420 offense and it was against the Cardinals. 1989 02:10:45,100 --> 02:10:48,060 So they need something, right. They like, they have to figure 1990 02:10:48,060 --> 02:10:54,020 something out and Wandale looks like hands down, the best player 1991 02:10:54,100 --> 02:10:57,460 on their offense. Like, I don't think it's very 1992 02:10:57,460 --> 02:10:59,500 close. I think he's, you know, far and 1993 02:10:59,500 --> 02:11:02,540 away the best player on the offense with sake one off the 1994 02:11:02,540 --> 02:11:04,320 field. Yeah. 1995 02:11:04,320 --> 02:11:08,720 And so I I I. Think that 64% route share last 1996 02:11:08,720 --> 02:11:12,640 night or yeah, I think, I think that only goes up from here. 1997 02:11:12,640 --> 02:11:17,000 Yeah, as he's working back from the ACL, he's the kind of guy 1998 02:11:17,000 --> 02:11:19,640 where I'm much more excited about him in PPR. 1999 02:11:20,040 --> 02:11:23,600 I just think he's he's the type of guy that racks up a lot of 2000 02:11:23,600 --> 02:11:26,040 targets. I don't think he's going to 2001 02:11:26,040 --> 02:11:28,800 operate, you know, terribly deep down the field. 2002 02:11:29,520 --> 02:11:34,280 But I mean in in the Giant's quest this offseason to collect 2003 02:11:34,280 --> 02:11:38,840 all of the slot receivers, maybe they were collecting them all to 2004 02:11:38,840 --> 02:11:41,560 just be able to siphon their life force into Wandale 2005 02:11:41,560 --> 02:11:44,960 Robinson's knee to heal him. Because he is the only 2006 02:11:44,960 --> 02:11:48,760 worthwhile receiver on this team that I want for fantasy. 2007 02:11:50,760 --> 02:11:55,440 Yeah, agree. And for him to be on on on on 2008 02:11:55,440 --> 02:11:59,840 this like 50% way to targets per outrun and. 2009 02:12:00,700 --> 02:12:06,020 With his average death of Target was 4 in week three and two in 2010 02:12:06,020 --> 02:12:09,100 week 4. So he's definitely like sort of 2011 02:12:09,100 --> 02:12:15,780 like a Target and and yak machine and and and like doing 2012 02:12:15,780 --> 02:12:18,500 that very well. So I would say definitely 2013 02:12:18,500 --> 02:12:21,860 priority like sort of like waiver pick up probably not 2014 02:12:21,860 --> 02:12:26,340 getting him in the main anymore and but in in maybe less 2015 02:12:26,340 --> 02:12:30,220 competitive leagues. And PVR leaks would be very, 2016 02:12:30,220 --> 02:12:32,140 very interested in in one though. 2017 02:12:32,860 --> 02:12:35,700 Yep, 100%. Really, really excited. 2018 02:12:35,700 --> 02:12:38,500 When I when I look at a basketball roster when I'm just, 2019 02:12:38,820 --> 02:12:42,220 you know, checking out the bags and I see Wandale on there at 2020 02:12:42,220 --> 02:12:46,020 the end of the roster. Oh yeah, that's that's gonna be 2021 02:12:46,020 --> 02:12:48,260 a fun one to watch. We'll put a pin in that one. 2022 02:12:50,140 --> 02:12:53,580 But yeah, other I'm just gonna do some quick hitters here 2023 02:12:53,820 --> 02:12:58,080 before we wrap up. Obviously you know Bateman 2024 02:12:58,080 --> 02:13:03,040 missing pretty concerning. I am very worried about the 2025 02:13:03,040 --> 02:13:06,320 Ravens offense and and I know we talked about Bateman and and 2026 02:13:06,320 --> 02:13:09,760 being optimistic for him starting to get concerned. 2027 02:13:10,280 --> 02:13:12,840 If you're gonna get anything from Bateman, it kind of looks 2028 02:13:12,840 --> 02:13:15,720 to me like it's gonna be one of those later in the season things 2029 02:13:15,720 --> 02:13:19,080 where maybe he does come back and and gives us, you know, 2030 02:13:19,080 --> 02:13:22,400 those flashes that we saw from those first couple games from 2031 02:13:22,400 --> 02:13:26,050 him of his career where he, you know, ripped off those huge 2032 02:13:26,050 --> 02:13:28,210 breakaway touchdown plays in the deep shots? 2033 02:13:28,210 --> 02:13:32,370 But that's one where I'm definitely legitimately 2034 02:13:32,370 --> 02:13:38,010 concerned. For Bateman now, JSN is just 2035 02:13:38,130 --> 02:13:40,930 they've refused to throw on the ball downfield at all. 2036 02:13:40,930 --> 02:13:44,330 When Drew Lock got in the game, they finally, like, threw him 2037 02:13:44,330 --> 02:13:47,410 the ball farther than two yards past the line of scrimmage. 2038 02:13:47,450 --> 02:13:50,910 I think once, but that's one I think. 2039 02:13:51,470 --> 02:13:55,950 I, I, I, I actually think Jackson JSN is a little bit 2040 02:13:55,950 --> 02:14:02,350 interesting in that last night he had a 75% route share which 2041 02:14:02,350 --> 02:14:06,310 is up from the 60 to 65 he had before. 2042 02:14:06,310 --> 02:14:11,910 So you you do have a a slight bump there and 24% targets per 2043 02:14:11,910 --> 02:14:16,990 at run only 29 air yards so like you wanna like. 2044 02:14:17,880 --> 02:14:20,160 You don't want to get over your skis or anything like that, but 2045 02:14:20,760 --> 02:14:25,480 I almost wonder if like there's a breakout getting. 2046 02:14:25,480 --> 02:14:29,280 Maybe this is called a breakout game coming for JSN that we 2047 02:14:29,280 --> 02:14:33,320 didn't see last night because it was such a blowout and and and 2048 02:14:33,320 --> 02:14:35,080 we just didn't see that many yet. 2049 02:14:35,440 --> 02:14:40,520 We only saw 28 dropbacks for the Seahawks last night, and I I 2050 02:14:40,520 --> 02:14:46,280 almost wonder if. He is actually emerging, but we 2051 02:14:46,280 --> 02:14:49,160 didn't see it last night because it was such a blowout win for 2052 02:14:49,160 --> 02:14:50,760 them. But on the other hand, maybe 2053 02:14:50,760 --> 02:14:53,000 that was because they were so we're so far ahead. 2054 02:14:53,160 --> 02:14:58,240 They were giving the rookies some run out and but I almost 2055 02:14:58,240 --> 02:15:01,680 think there is some sign of life there that's good context. 2056 02:15:01,720 --> 02:15:04,640 And yeah, I mean he had even prior to last week he'd been 2057 02:15:04,640 --> 02:15:08,600 trending in the right direction. It's just it feels, yeah, and 2058 02:15:08,600 --> 02:15:11,440 this is the kind of thing where you just gotta try and remain 2059 02:15:11,440 --> 02:15:14,360 even keel on it and not overreact and get too emotional 2060 02:15:14,360 --> 02:15:17,000 about it. But it just feels like it's 2061 02:15:17,000 --> 02:15:20,120 happening so slowly for him. When you see guys, yeah, like 2062 02:15:20,120 --> 02:15:24,520 Tank, like Tank Dell is coming out here and it's like, I think 2063 02:15:24,520 --> 02:15:28,320 JSN is like twice the player that Tank Dell will ever be. 2064 02:15:28,320 --> 02:15:31,560 And it's like why can't we get JSN involved like that. 2065 02:15:31,720 --> 02:15:35,000 You know, like you you see these other rookie wide receiver, you 2066 02:15:35,080 --> 02:15:36,680 Pooka. Dakua is out here breaking 2067 02:15:36,680 --> 02:15:40,050 records. And it's like, yeah, I mean JSN 2068 02:15:40,050 --> 02:15:43,810 has like, not to take anything away from how spectacular Puka 2069 02:15:43,810 --> 02:15:46,730 has been, but JSN has more talent in his broken wrist than 2070 02:15:46,730 --> 02:15:50,850 Puka has in his entire body. And it's like, can we please get 2071 02:15:50,850 --> 02:15:55,290 this guy to ball? Yeah, so it's just it's easy to 2072 02:15:55,290 --> 02:15:58,410 get frustrated with how long it's taking. 2073 02:15:58,410 --> 02:16:02,660 But I think he made good points that it it's it has always been 2074 02:16:02,660 --> 02:16:05,340 moving in the right direction. It's not like we're seeing him 2075 02:16:05,340 --> 02:16:08,500 like start to lose work or or get benched right or anything 2076 02:16:08,500 --> 02:16:13,220 like that, but it's to me the most for. 2077 02:16:13,380 --> 02:16:16,100 Have one big week and never look back. 2078 02:16:16,780 --> 02:16:18,420 We just I'm not seeing it right now. 2079 02:16:18,780 --> 02:16:21,780 Absolutely. You're you're 100% right it to 2080 02:16:21,780 --> 02:16:23,780 me. It just, it feels so far away 2081 02:16:23,780 --> 02:16:27,180 because it's not only does he need to start getting more 2082 02:16:27,180 --> 02:16:30,770 targets, more snaps, more routes, he also probably needs 2083 02:16:30,770 --> 02:16:33,170 them to start coming farther down the field. 2084 02:16:33,170 --> 02:16:37,090 Like there's only so much, I mean, shit, look at Jamar Chase, 2085 02:16:37,090 --> 02:16:40,889 like all of hit, you know, I would say, you know, we're 2086 02:16:40,889 --> 02:16:44,250 excited about Jsn's talent. I don't think he's Jamar Chase. 2087 02:16:44,290 --> 02:16:47,490 And Chase is getting all these like nothing. 2088 02:16:47,570 --> 02:16:51,010 You know, burger targets just short at the line of scrimmage 2089 02:16:51,010 --> 02:16:52,690 because they can't push the ball down the field. 2090 02:16:53,230 --> 02:16:56,629 I'm like, it's OK, but he's getting a lot of volume to make 2091 02:16:56,629 --> 02:16:58,309 anything fantasy relevant happen. 2092 02:16:58,309 --> 02:17:01,670 And so that's my biggest concern is like maybe we do eventually 2093 02:17:01,670 --> 02:17:04,510 start to get him getting more volume, but it's like, OK, And 2094 02:17:04,510 --> 02:17:06,830 then now we've got to wait for them to start deploying him 2095 02:17:07,270 --> 02:17:10,309 further down the field. So it feels really far away. 2096 02:17:10,430 --> 02:17:13,629 But I bet you the truth is probably somewhere in the middle 2097 02:17:13,709 --> 02:17:15,709 between how how we feel about it. 2098 02:17:15,709 --> 02:17:18,790 Where I'm I'm starting to be the doom and gloom about all my JSN 2099 02:17:18,790 --> 02:17:22,100 bags, and you're over here a little more on the Copium side 2100 02:17:22,100 --> 02:17:25,020 of things, but reality's probably right in the middle of 2101 02:17:25,020 --> 02:17:26,500 that, so. Right. 2102 02:17:27,139 --> 02:17:32,180 And I mean, I'm not like I I'm not ignorant of like listen he 2103 02:17:32,180 --> 02:17:34,900 needs to score points. He needs to make plays, needs to 2104 02:17:34,900 --> 02:17:40,700 score touchdowns and just just wanna be that. 2105 02:17:40,700 --> 02:17:42,660 There is some positive sign we're just not. 2106 02:17:43,100 --> 02:17:46,660 We're just we're not seeing the the good production yet. 2107 02:17:47,129 --> 02:17:49,730 Yeah, and and so in Resurrection, he's gone to one 2108 02:17:49,730 --> 02:17:55,930 pick a 109 and it's like, Oh my God, like that's get it all get 2109 02:17:55,969 --> 02:17:58,049 it. All I wanna drop so much JSN at 2110 02:17:58,049 --> 02:18:00,250 109. Yeah, because that's isn't that 2111 02:18:00,250 --> 02:18:02,530 right around where Garrett Wilson was going last year 2112 02:18:02,530 --> 02:18:04,250 During like not. Yeah, during resurrection. 2113 02:18:04,250 --> 02:18:04,930 But during. Yeah. 2114 02:18:04,930 --> 02:18:07,610 And so that's. Yeah, yeah. 2115 02:18:07,850 --> 02:18:09,090 You get it all. OK. 2116 02:18:09,090 --> 02:18:12,129 So I just. I either need to resign myself 2117 02:18:12,129 --> 02:18:15,600 to losing, just double the amount of money on Kendra Miller 2118 02:18:15,600 --> 02:18:18,600 and JSN, or I need to not draft any resurrection. 2119 02:18:18,600 --> 02:18:22,000 So I'm gonna gonna have to do some thinking about that. 2120 02:18:23,360 --> 02:18:31,400 Bankroll management yeah well I I feel like we covered everyone 2121 02:18:31,400 --> 02:18:35,719 we needed to on the on this chart and we we kept it a little 2122 02:18:35,719 --> 02:18:38,840 tighter this week you know under 2 1/2 hours. 2123 02:18:38,840 --> 02:18:43,340 So we're we're trying to get you guys the content in a digestible 2124 02:18:43,340 --> 02:18:47,820 amount of time, but. For those everybody listening on 2125 02:18:47,820 --> 02:18:52,780 2 1/2 X speed. Yeah, For those of you that hung 2126 02:18:52,780 --> 02:18:54,700 with us the whole time and you're here live. 2127 02:18:54,700 --> 02:18:56,700 Thank you. We, we appreciate you. 2128 02:18:57,219 --> 02:19:00,299 Hope that you got some value from what we shared tonight in 2129 02:19:00,299 --> 02:19:03,980 the charts. And with that, we'll we'll see 2130 02:19:03,980 --> 02:19:06,219 you next week. See you next week. 2131 02:19:06,260 --> 02:19:07,740 Thanks for thanks for tuning info.