Quarterback prices are cratering.
What does it mean for you and your family?
It's a teepee. Chasing Pat, fryer homos.
I need a hand job. Fix your side with your mom.
Our Alpha play. Chase, are you?
Welcome to ADP, chasing Sam Sherman, not able to make it
this week, but we got Ben Gretch returning to the show guys.
How's it going? Oh, I should probably make you
guys give you a little bit more space.
Here is a great man. Wins two million dollars,
uploading the audio for a podcast and everyone else in the
smaller video just so everyone can really see how important he
really. Yeah.
Also at this point, we will just do this.
Are you guys doing today? Because I was gonna retweet but
I can't even find it. I didn't tweet it out.
I don't know. I thought it might be on the
ship. She look, we don't even have
this to it out, I don't know, it's here.
No, no one, no one knows were alive, and we've done such a
good job, you know, being consistent with the time that
everyone everyone knows it's on right now.
So, in other words, audio listeners, we're going to do a
better job of describing. What's on the chart?
Because most of you are probably going to be experiencing this,
in an audio format, I would imagine that we're really up.
The service, the other listeners on this one or the the replay
Watchers, YouTube, Replay Watchers, we really appreciate.
You got out, shout out, the replay Watchers, the backbone of
the, the Creator gig economy. We do have some exciting
developments in on the, on the ATP.
Chasing front one, we have like a real Trend to talk about here
with the quarterbacks declining in price significantly by like a
full round from where they were at the start of the postseason.
Draft best ball period but we also have been Gretch traveling
to Oregon drafting a ton of teams.
Got some, got some draft reps under his belt, and still
working their way under his belt right now, he's on the clock and
like five weeks. Yeah, I'm before I left, I was
talking, you know, with you and Pete you're telling me like, I
was like, oh yeah, just wish. There was a puppy.
I could get in a bunch of these like cheap ones.
Get some reps and you're like, dude, no.
Got to get like the chow chow. You're like telling me all these
like higher price ones that I was going to want to get in.
I was like nah dude I'm gonna want to start slow.
It is it shocked me how quickly might be generous he kicked it
like having access to doing this on my own it was like really
fast. I was like, dude I can see why
everyone loves other dogs so much how easy that is to use all
of it. Like, shout out to them
obviously, but I haven't had a chance to do this on my own
phone myself and I mean it was bad.
It was like immediately. Like I want to do this
constantly. I'm Having withdrawals like I
last night. I was so mad After I filled out,
I got through an up to date on all my slows, I'm in, like 30
slows, I wanted to do a fast like I was like, I want to do a
fast draft right now I'm just sitting around and I can't do it
right now and it's really annoying but it was a perfect
time. I just kind of chilling to yeah.
The bed. That's so nice.
You have that? That is like it is.
That's what I do. Most of mine is like that hour
before bed. Yeah.
When you're just kind of hanging out.
Killing time. Like that's that's the eye and
you want to do one. You're like I'm actually like I
feel relaxed, I feel chill. Like I just want to just want to
do one draft because there's those moments in the afternoon
sometimes I'm like I'm a bang out three of these.
All right now I believe that's what I've been five tables and
and it's all just on the phone. So what do you do when you're
five tabling? What are you, what are you
looking at? Most of the time are you in a
draft or you back to the No? No.
So the move is the move is very simple.
You enter. Normally what I do is I'll do
BBM for puppies or for poodles or whatever the the niche thing
they have going on at the time as because I like to get that
good mix of like you want to always be pumping and bbm's,
getting whatever the market is giving you at that time and then
still be hammering, the snapshot contest.
The issue is if you're doing one of the snapshot contest of the
time, it's like I don't know - 42 cents of EV like at a time
and a puppy. It's like, it's like, it's just
a negative return on your time. So you darling.
I that's like Detailing that snapshot stuff.
The lower snake step. I'm not going to multi-table to
the Chow Chows like that. But the the move is you just you
just stay on this screen and you just need to monitor.
But the key is the thing that you have to be.
This is like this is like how Peter is the sicko with?
Like always knowing what the app is going to give him.
If he lets the clock go to zero. The key is you've got to have
absolute lightning fingers with the starring right crane you and
I have talked about this where it's like okay I just took
McCaffrey round one so I get it immediately star.
Every 49er, I got to immediately start every commander and you
got to be doing it fast because there's going to be times when
you're doing five tables, where you're on the clock three at a
time, and you don't have time to go through and be like, okay,
what do I have on this team? But I need another tight end.
I need you. Like, you got to have the, you
gotta have every correlating player starred fast, that that,
which I think is probably the biggest reason why most people
probably bad at multi-tabling is they're just going to end up.
Ting, a bunch of value Hound teams, that's real, it's real.
Like if you're doing five tables that's cause you're gonna,
you're gonna be like, oh Alexander Madison 10 spots after
ATP. Come on.
And then you're like, shit, I correlates with exactly zero.
My other players like why I also worry about structure, like I
have issues with with keeping my structure straight because I'm
like on this team like I my brain slow to like I'm like oh I
need I need to be like looking out for a quarterback in this
range on this team and then I go to another team and I'm like, oh
yeah. To be looking out for
quarterback in the strands. Like, now, that's the other
team. Like, I what, I what I default
to on what I'm doing multi-tabling is I default to
either Elite quarterback or Elite tight end, so I just click
real quick. And I'm like, okay, I've Andrews
on this team to tighten so I just ignore I'm not taking other
tight end until the last round, right?
Or I have Josh Allen on this team.
I don't need to be taking Kirk Cousins.
They don't need to be taking Geno Smith or whatever.
Yeah, that makes sense. All right, let's dive into
labeling. What you were saying about the
like sort of acquiring off drafts.
Like that's what that was my experience over the weekend.
Where I write, when we got down there, I did a draft while we
were eating dinner because I was like, I gotta get, I gotta get
one in. Did one later that night, but
then I was pretty tired from the drive.
Got the bed got up early, to make sure like, I love it.
I love the tweets of people screenshotting.
Yeah, for am dress with you and though, he wasn't kidding.
I literally dropped. At it until they woke up.
And then as they were waking up, I was doing my last draft and
then you were like sleeping. You get to get you.
Yeah, that's exactly. That's exactly right.
And then my wife finally got ready and took the girls out and
they're like I will meet you outside will be walking on the
beach and I was like, all right, I got to finish this last draft
and get going, but I was like, pressing myself to do it.
So I did like three first thing in the morning, the one.
I mean, we're only there one night, and then that's what I
was saying. Like, you know, last night, when
I'm back home, I'm like this. I want to do it just a chill
draft. Like what?
I'm not like I want to draft right now, not like I, this is
the window I have. Have to draft and yeah, I have
to make myself dry 100%. Yeah, well, so you're seeing
some of this. So let's pull up the charts here
because We are seeing actually, I think maybe let's start with
the fallers first because this is kind of the big discussion
here where we are seeing. So we got Josh Allen Falling,
Jalen hurd's falling, Kyler merciful Lanka's.
Feels like he's catching a strike here, just no, no, the
Marie thing makes sense because them just outright cutting
Hopkins, just makes it seem much more likely that they're,
they're just punting on the ear and that, even if he is healthy,
he won't play. That's a great Point.
Jimmy Garoppolo following, with
his injury thing, we'll talk about that a little bit, but Joe
Borough the other. And I think, you know, the fact
that like Burrows falling. I've talked about this a few
different times Borough falling. Now, towards the end of the
fourth round makes, if you draft T, if you draft, your more chase
that odds of getting Borough are now much higher than they used
to be. I just got 40 in a slow, 27
spots behind ATP unstacked. But I was, is, I see him.
I see him last into the fifth relatively and got it, like a
decent amount of frequency. This was a Jefferson team.
I got him at the 67 term. Don't literally twenty seven
spots behind ATP. Government 612 701, whatever.
Wow, those are. All right.
I guess I'm taking him so so I have a I have a question about
that honestly. Like it feels good in the moment
but like you get that team to the finals, like, what are you
like? I know.
Do you even feel? Do you even feel good about told
myself? I'm walking.
I'm locking myself into I look at what?
Boyd's ATP. He's in between my next turn and
the Heathen turn. Boyd, Boyd.
A nerve are in such a dead spot of the draft that you can reach
15 spots on that. Yeah, you can.
I do what I do, I told myself, I'm locking myself in to void
15, spots ahead of ATP. In my next, in my next window,
and which saw a parade crane probably wakes up about once a
week and cold sweats, remembering that Tyler Boyd had
11 points after the first draft of the, of the bills.
Bengals game when When Boyd was chasing of data, we have, we
almost lived. We almost lived out the Tyler
Boyd, chasing down the winter. It's true.
I like we still good enough and
we talked about, I mean if something were to happen to
either Chase or Higgins and they missed, I actually think I don't
think that's real. I think we've seen Jason
Higgins, both get banged up. And and this time before tends
to flow to the other one of Jason Higgins because they're so
it's so good because Boyd is Boyd is just who he is.
Yeah, he's what? I still think boy would have the
weekly Spike week potential. The I think he's got, but he
does like, week regard. He does is what I'm saying, it
can just missing. Boyd can have can be the stack
in a given week. But, yeah, really.
Honestly, you're in this scenario.
You just described in which you have Justin Jefferson.
You're basically hoping your first round.
Pick doesn't count. You're honestly, because I would
say if we, you know, if we had access to this data from
Underdog, which we don't, I would guess the most common wide
receiver quarterback pairing in the whole of Vespa Mania, for
will be Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins and their ceiling
weeks are one-to-one correlated. You are never your ever, you are
never in a billion years. Getting a 32 point Kirk Cousins
game in which Justin Jefferson gets like 10, it's, it is, it is
like universe is possible Jefferson.
I have 30 points and cousins can.
Yeah, that's the thing. That's you don't need cousins
like if you have Jefferson and Burr.
Oh yeah, I'm just happy that all burrow can smash cousins in.
Jefferson can still go off, I think in the same week yeah
Baroque pearls or open run for a touchdown throw wonderer.
Throw one to Trent Taylor and throw one to tell her boy or
whatever. Sure.
But I think one reads, the only reason I want to do it because I
did have this whole deliberation.
Like am I just screwing my team even though it's such great ATP
but I think you, I think you do it, but You do it understanding
that, like, we don't have any control over what happens in
week 17. Anyways, but it's certainly not
a moved on to optimize for week 17.
I know this is too late, but I'm sure you two have a unique
combination of players. I think if you had mixing it
would make it more enticing because I agree.
You know, that's one re very realistic path to like you know
Burrell likes to check down mix-ins, 5 touchdown game, I
think Borough had 32 and that game if I remember correctly
they can get there together but the other things are seeing
thing about this team is so is Jefferson and I went Ramon Ray
briefs two, three, turn which I I've gotten an inordinate amount
of like that. So did you take, did you take
briefs over? Derrick Henry Problem, I take
briefs over. Derrick Henry, I've taken
raimondo. I've gone Jefferson or laundry
Brew. Some like three different teams
out of, you know, if only 30 so far, but I feel ya.
We generally like young players who Flash the lead-up said
rookie season. Yeah.
Derrick Henry Henry. Derrick Henry is healthier than
Bruce all this yeah. He's also 29 years old and we're
playing for week 17, I didn't turn em over Henry.
Henry went, you're not first but I still wouldn't you're not
playing for week 17. If you're fading.
Derrick Henry dude, let me tell you the rest.
What about Henry? Sam had a great, same had a
great tweet the other day. He's not here, he's not here to
represent himself, but he was like, yeah, just been really
scooping up a lot of time. Chase beers, do you know, he
plays the Houston Texans 17, the fields was still there.
Patent and Pete over on ship, chasing off season.
If I was drawn from our team's, I probably would be paying these
iron prices for the three quarterbacks.
I didn't take either them. I took Kenneth Walker though so
I ended up with Ramon tree briefs and Kenneth Walker in my
first five picks Godwin at that turn as well.
So I only had Jefferson Godwin and so then to take Borough at
67, also meant that I only have three receivers through seven
rounds. I took John donne's and with him
but that's part of why I think the borough like if but Boyd is
going to be more important to this roster because You need
Boyd anyway, Seaver. You like really need a boy type.
Yeah, it's a, it's a kind of a hyper fragile running back
build, but now I have like, my starting lineup is going to be
really good the structure and the depth of the team's not
going to be particularly good, but if the running backs are
healthy and Buro is the guy like the stud you're going to need to
hammer wide receivers through like the early double-digit
rounds. But that's okay because it's a
hyper. Fragile teams, you're not going
to drive them running backs in that kind of running back, you
know, sweet spot anyway. So and this is why I thought
adding burrow to this roster made even more sense because I
feel like it does like increase the weekly ceiling at a bunch of
spots but like the the lack of correlation.
I mean what are the chased after due to the chase drafter have a
homes. There he took my homes in a
third, some home. Yeah, I didn't take me home to
the turn. He got him at 3:02.
And so that's why I had to go back to the trouble which I
love. I love.
I mean, I don't love it now. Like, your your yeah, you, I
mean, he locked himself out of six round.
Bur 06 from Grover's third on Mahomes, the whole not going to
score so many more. E points than Borough.
Yeah but if you have Chase I mean 611 Borough.
I mean, obvi Pro crushes. The road obviously you can't
That's the that's the rumor on the street right now is the
Jets. So 10-minute here says you can't
Bank on six round, bro. One thing I'll say anything past
503 is getting greedy. Yeah, it's probably true.
If you are gonna take Borough, you probably would have taken
him at 5:03 anyway, that's fair. I was gonna switch on which is
still, which is still, well, I guess it depends on the
construction or team because some of those guys are taking it
503. If your draft breaks the wrong
way, it could be like, You take a jury duty, you know what just
like, I don't know. Give me.
Give me the, give me them. A home side of that to be to.
I think, I actually do think it's 611.
I would have been tempted to take burrow because even as a
Mahomes drafter because you're like this probably doesn't work
but my Advance rate. Well it's the answer steamed
broccoli. It's the it's the thing we
always say which is that, you know, Elite or unique combos,
like you can pretty much justify anything.
If you're like, well, it's a unique combo to get through.
Through and a huge ATP value to get.
Birth are 100% why. So so Alan hurts Kyler Fields
Borough, even hurt sometimes Falls, really?
I mean, crane, we've been saying this since February like this
just was never long-term. This was never going to hold
this to where these guys are going now seems about right?
You know, I think I think I think all still very expensive.
I mean I I still think there's a lot of good running at once in
the third round. Yeah.
But it's like there is a pretty severe tear break on just
because of the way fantasy football works.
Now we're there so few like very elite players like I think
probably the last Elite player in fantasy football is probably
Tony Pollard who goes at 21. No Bruce Hall.
Ramon Ray Stevenson are, and I mean, there is a simple.
It's always like not going to be playing the first month of the
season. I think that's that overly
pessimistic. There's no real.
Okay, explain explain, explain this to me, explain explain like
I'm five briefs all is running back 11 and ATP Javonte is
running back 29, Jim wanted a multi-link meant tear the team
is talking. It's talking openly about him
being back like a little bit later than needing to have.
Some igp Ryan is that a big role too stuffy?
It is, it is it just the perine signing the plants like matters
as it's a multi ligament tear. It's much, much, more at risk of
becoming a Dobbin situation than Bruce.
All we saw was an ACL tear. We're both really poor.
Last year, I'll add this that, that Javonte actually has this
the pr thing matters. He actually has a backup, that
was good last year and is it probably a better running back
than anything? The Jets have.
Unless I've been a Candice really good immediately as a
fifth-round pick and know what I recant, the the pier, anything
just matters. Yeah, the other thing is, I
would also being Aaron Rodgers running back has historically
been very good. He throws to the running backs a
lot, they score a lot of touchdowns, I think.
And what are you getting at in terms of a major Dylan last
year, what's good for our Jones face?
Balls are and Jones, not get both had not torn, their ACL.
I would say that Javonte Williams would be like he don't
work together on value. I was going to say he's Kenneth
Walker even okay, if you, if you're more worried about the
pier, I would be less worried about the pier on stuff.
If he was healthy, I think he would just perine of totally
healthy. Z.
But sure you could even say he's balls.
More to the floor. I think people are just
pessimistic about Denver, right? Like that.
It's just like a very weird. You have.
I mean, I'm pretty optimistic in terms of what they cost but I
could totally see it, being it as the Denver, situate one of
the weirdest teams in the NFL right now.
Right? But for me, I mean it's what you
that Loki might be tanking. Like we're opening talking about
how Arizona my tank in this and that Peyton has not said, a lot
of things that have made me believe that he thinks Russ's
the long-term future. We talked about the contract
situation were like 25 million more dollars, get guaranteed if
he's on the roster and like the fifth League day of 2024.
So after this, season is 2024 salaries already guaranteed.
So people who are just looking at over the Capitol and all they
have to keep the 24 they don't and they won't if they don't
want to guarantee 25 million of 20, 25 money.
So this year they have to make their decision or also tied
again. Correct.
What do you? What do you think about my take
on Russ? That Drew Brees at the end?
Had nothing left to give yet. He had a peashooter but Sean
Payton was still getting 11 possums out of him.
That's possible. But I also like a deer.
It's gonna take to me. Yeah, yeah, no, honestly, right.
There's a scenario where he's like, I so don't want to be tied
to rust. Ooh, 2025 because I don't think
chair three years from now wants to still be coaching, Russ from
everything. He said that he's gonna almost
tank, Russ like make him suck so that he can go to Jared's did
of, or whatever, and cut Rusk of heavy crate crate had crane had
the best take, which is that Russia seems like completely
intolerable. Like to just to just be like
very grounded just getting just getting him out of the building,
basically, because I think also, you hire a CEO style coach, like
Peyton. Peyton is like he's been around
the NFL for a super well-respected.
That's a guy Nathaniel Hackett was never gonna win.
Like Nathaniel Hackett was never going to win the battle
personality between, you know, him and Russ where Sean Payton,
Sean Payton could win the Battle of Personality between the two
right where it's like, this is my team.
This is what we're doing Russ, I will send you home.
If you are not with the program I don't even think he could win
and I think he's like the heavy. Favorite to win it right.
Like Russ I think was so disliked by the end of last
season they had a defensive tackle chewing him out on the
side. Yeah that was no one caring you
have ever seen a defensive tackle, two out of nine million
nine figure quarterback contract type type of player.
Like that was insane. Shelby hair is just yelling at
him and no one's coming to the quarterbacks defense.
Everyone's like, I just go ahead.
We don't even like for us like, I mean, I already lost my just
been epic epic derailment of the point that I was trying to make,
which is there. Devante, William and Bruce Hall.
Don't have the same. Like, high-end pay off, based on
what we saw from them. So far in their careers, the
briefs Hall was showing the potential to be like the one who
bring types has that or we never got that from from Williams in
terms of workload, in terms of efficiency, in terms of
Versatility, we just haven't seen that ceiling it from
Williams which also was a tangent of Davis's point that
there wasn't a lot of elite talented.
I was trying to rope reason. Yeah that way.
A double derailment. We are writing.
I think what was the quarterback about quarterback?
Because I think I've to me to me why The Show Goes, three hours
often, it goes so long. It is such a long program.
I think all of Devon te T, Henry Jacobs worm, Andre Metcalf yada
yada so on and so forth. I think that's the tier break.
So I think in that two-year for me, I don't really get wear
makeup goes where it goes. You think he should go earlier.
Later later. Yeah, I mean I think you're I
think you're probably. It's just like I don't know to
me and if I close my eyes I'm like it's a week 17 against the
Steelers DK Metcalfe has 180 yards and four touchdowns
against the steel guys actually Spike for bigger weeks.
Metcalf lock, it lock. It is like the best.
He's like the best value on the board is a great value.
Yeah but like but anyway point being I see the quarterback
settling after that range. But I do get taking the
quarterbacks ahead of Henry Jacobs or Monterey Metcalf
briefs yada yada. The so on their Auto Clicks in
the late 3rd. Like if it's, yes, Dee came at
kafir like Jalen hurd's with AJ Brown.
Like I am not thinking about that.
Yeah, I'm taking I don't think they're just from a structural
perspective and like somebody who hasn't drafted as much and
atp's like my and I might change on this but my initial read and
I've been feeling this is like I want to build running back and
receiver depth and not necessarily running back death.
But if I'm going to take a detour in the first four rounds,
I probably want to. With an anchor running back and
still be building receiver depth.
And I know how that makes my teams and this is from obviously
years of drafting. I know how I feel about my teams
at the end. Does that mean that I'm gonna be
right? Not necessarily, but I do still
feel that way at those prices what it does for a build having
done, hundreds of drafts of are lots of years.
I don't like it. Like I want to be taking now I
doing 30 slows, and I'm only in like the fourth and fifth on the
most advanced of those slows, I wanted five fast.
So I've only finished five builds.
A couple of those fast, my quarterbacks ended up being so
bad that those teams are probably dead.
So like I do get that but I think the way to win is still
you get a maybe it's a three quarterback bill but you get a
floor at quarterback late and you have enough depth of the
other positions because that's where you differentiate like yes
last year, the top quarterbacks differentiated.
Yes, it seems from a profile perspective that they will
continue to. I just don't think they can
differentiate as much at those prices to justify.
This will show elite players and other positions can share.
The same hopin who put together a really good article on for,
for you guys should check out on the quarterback prices.
He simulated out last year's ATP so he took he said like, all
right, let's let's dive a little further than just looking at
like how these actual teams performed.
Let's take the quarterbacks front, like who were drafted in
the third round. And let's move them to the
second round and then like replace them with a player
selected in that range in the third round.
And sort of like see how last year's results would have worked
out with second round ATP prices and the results were like pretty
startling like it's even with last year's results which were
most likely an outlier season in a positive way for the elite.
Quarterbacks it's still hurt. The advanced rates of those
teams quite a bit. It was it was also the first and
second round success rates from non cubies and then third round
was like a little Worse, right? We had a lot of remember last
year we talked a lot during this season about like all the points
are coming from guys picked in the top 25 picks from the non
cubies. Right?
So if you well that's fair to maybe maybe second round
opportunity cost looks higher than usual.
But yeah and my feel right now is that the third round still
feels like pretty strong opportunity cost, you know so it
is Like in some ways like I was willing to take second round
Josh Allen because it's like well if I'm going to get briefs
all in the late 3rd. Anyway, like what's what?
So this goes back to the the pick that I made right before we
went live. And you told me we should talk
about on the show, I have a child Cohen, I started digs
waddle and I was in the middle of the third.
And I've been talking to a little bit about liking Hall and
Ramon Dre and I particularly like when they fall deeper into
the third, I mean those are just really nice pics.
So room Andre was there, three picks after ATP?
And I really like with a digs want to start to be able to get
that anchor running back that I think is probably a mid s value.
I think from Andres being undervalued pretty clearly but
Josh Allen was also there five-and-a-half picks behind a
TB. He was the you know the value
Peck and I have digs on this roster and I was asking you guys
what you would do because I have not taken Allen yet but Tech 31
And I still think that's a really steep price to play for a
quarterback when you have digs. I mean you said I kind of had to
do like it's like you almost I wasn't do I have to do that near
like that. You kind of have to do that.
I think you're right. But yeah, that's where I'm at is
like I have a hard time even pull the trigger with a stacked
pick of Alan knowing that there's a lot of people that are
doing digs Allen in the second. And so I get this
differentiation of how waddle on this roster to, and still
getting this stack. But, I mean, just from a
structural perspective to give up her Mantra Stevenson at 3:07.
I just, that's not And I don't want to be taking a quarterback
over running back in that spot. Where you guys thoughts on that?
I need to take Alan. Yeah, for me.
It's partly that. That was a Chow Chow, right?
Yeah. So you're getting the best price
on Alan. You know that it may be.
That there was some very late 3rd, round Allen or something
but for the most part that's one of the better prices that you'll
see on Alan stacked in the entire tournament.
Like you're going to get your go locking in like a Allen digs,
you know, but you have waddle and they have maybe they have
Ramon Dre, but that's still pretty sweet.
You know, like you're going to get an advantage there with your
Elite scope player. If it was good for me, it's one
of those things harder. My guess is the advance rate is
probably going to favor, the skill position players in the
first few, do 40, picks or whatever, but you get to week 17
and you flip the cards over and you're like, Oh yeah.
Josh Alan just you know Josh out has 33 Mahomes through for 503
yards and four touchdowns against the like I just just and
obviously it played out the exact opposite of this last year
where Tom Brady and Mike Evans went completely nuclear and week
17. So I think it's an obviously
like in a one-game samples are incredibly small but just like
look at look at 90th percentile projections for quarterbacks on
any given week Mahomes. Alan hurts and burrow are going
to be projected for so many more points.
And everyone else at a 90th percentile, and In fairness the
elite quarterbacks like, Alan and Baroque, didn't have a week,
17 game, and the Eagles stuff won tournaments without hurts
even playing. So, like, was that the week?
They played? Yeah, they Saints game.
Right? Yeah, the Saints game.
Yeah. The the winning Tournament
winning line up on the Draft Kings millionaire.
Is a eagle stack without hurts. I mean, hurts would have been
didn't, pretty valuable wasn't the DK.
Winning team Auto. Drafted was it II saw enough
correlation where I that would be surprising.
It had like a like a true Eagle stack to okay II.
Saw someone say that on Twitter the other day and I don't know,
maybe maybe, I'm maybe I'm misunderstanding but I thought I
thought that was something. I thought that was something
that was out there. That's and additionally, Pat,
both of them are and Kylie were hurt by that point there's
enough names that it's hard to imagine scenarios where none of
them have the. I mean, I think that's a good
point. It really was a crazy run out
that Lamar Kyler hurts were all out and then Alan and burrow
both don't play, right? I mean like the amount of
quarterbacks that have a yeah, we do this with the last week 17
like in DFS you might you might play a slate slightly
differently because you know there's a homes and burrow.
Playing each other on Monday night and Josh, Alan's on by and
Lamar's hurt. And then it's like well you
know, now we're only one Elite ceiling needs to fail it.
Yeah, it's like a fading like Kyler and Herbert maybe in a
given week you're like all right I can I can pay down a
quarterback much more easily. Yeah, it does change the math.
That's not going to happen every week 17 for sure a very
unlikely. Yeah.
So, all right, I still wear these crises are still.
I mean you're still high for you.
So here's what I want to ask you been.
Because you've got kind of fresh eyes on this.
What are you doing? If you're passing on these
quarterbacks, even at these prices, and who knows they could
continue to fall, I think, I think they probably like have
trouble getting past the three, four, turn with any consistency.
But one thing I could see happening is that the if Lamar
starts to fall, a little bit in the fourth, then I can sit there
and take Andrews in the third and get a chance, a little more
in the fourth, you know, I'm going to end up passing on, you
know, I mean, anyway, I just think there's a couple things
that can come. I push them down a little
further, but they're going to, I think 3/4 turn is probably the
cap for the true Elites. But like, what are you doing at
quarterback, if you're passing on these new prices?
Yeah, and that's the thing I still need to figure out.
I was trying to say I'm in a lot of slows and I haven't gotten to
make those decisions yet late and then some of the fast I
didn't necessarily work great. But what I do think about taking
these pics, early is, we've talked about this a little bit.
The wide receiver window closes earlier this year like Bateman
was guys are like 80 88 so good. I think your it's like if round
you have like seven or eight pecs to get enough receiver
death, and why don't you don't want to be the dude, clicking
Gigi's to the shoe store, and being like shit, smooth.
That's my wide receiver three. Yeah, that's, that's the.
You do not want to be there. I've, I've gone the other way in
terms of like drafting like unlike I did, I did a best Ball
Mania this morning where I took six wide receivers in my first
10 picks or whatever and Did the team, you know, hated being
like, well, I got at least limit it quarterback and tight end
options. But I mean I guess it does at
the end of the day, I would rather just try and do.
I'll even do three, quarterbacks three tight ends on Underdog and
that scenario, and cut out an extra wide receiver, just to
hope to run because really, I, you know, you could take in a
normal distribution. You could take three tight ends,
who score between. Let's call it 120 and 160 .5 P.
PR point. It's but if they layer perfectly
if they just for whatever reason over the course of 17 weeks
happened to completely layer there Spike weeks perfectly.
I mean obviously you're still losing to Kelsey and Andrews and
Hawkinson but you're not getting completely dusted if you're
getting 12 and a half points per week or whatever.
Right. You know.
And so I do I this is the I try and rescue it that way to your
question, pod about what I'm doing.
Like this is a big thing where I do have some some definitely
some three key. These three tight ends have been
trying to hesitate from doing both.
I did five drafts. I'm trying to pull it up like
one was to a Derek Carr. I hit a couple keep.
He's like in a little bit of a later window.
That was a Tyreke, olave start. So it was nice to get both the
stacks and then up doing a three tight end build on that one,
right? And like so, those sort of
things, like, I'm probably doing three on one or the other.
And part of the reason I'm okay with that is I'm making sure to
get enough receiver depth before where I think, I think probably
a lot of drafters are not getting enough.
Receiver depth before a shrunk wide receiver window this year
because people don't realize it, it has shrunk.
I'll tell you from whom any detours and you have less
availability for detours in the first seven or eight rounds this
year than I think. People realize I still want to
get an elite tight end if I can, and I think they're a really
good running back prices early there, right?
Like, I'm just talk about room Andre and briefs and I want to
make those pics. I, I don't think you can take
three or four early running backs in any scenario, but a
couple and then build out running back death later, you
can still Really good. Running back room.
You have to get the receiver depth.
It feels like to me before round 8.
So yeah, I mean makes it really tough to justify those early
cubies for me? Yeah I think there's it's
possible that we because all the wide receivers are priced up
like that teams that only have four through seven are going to
feel a little weak. Like I think it's actually it's
one of those things where the wide receiver pricing.
Can go both ways. We're like that.
You want to maybe figure out ways to counter it but also, So
I do think there is kind of a wide receiver Dead Zone.
Like the to me the Hopkins. Watson keen and Judy Mike
Williams areas a bit dead but then it comes back alive.
I don't think it's yeah I think it's flat.
It comes back alive again to me Godwin through, honestly, all
the way through Datsun a wide receiver finally dots.
And yeah, so I like, I like to I've ended up with a bunch more
than I planned of Jameer Gibbs. Kenneth Walker, Aaron Own chick
a job ins Joe Mixon? Because I'm like, well, I can
just I just need a running back here.
These wide receivers are flat to me, I'll take, whoever I get and
6 so it's not even like, oh, I can't wait to click the button
on Kenneth Walker because I kind of love Kenneth Walker.
But here, let's check my exposure.
I'm not gonna answer that because I feel like it gives me
if I take a wide receiver there. Even if though I kind of don't
care who then I can like take a running back in the eighth round
or ninth round or tenth round and I love those.
Spics and I hate the wide receivers in like the tenth just
hated it. I see this is what I want to do.
This is the biggest thing I haven't done yet but I want to
be doing love star says, I've built some really strong teams
likely going 6 wide receivers to start.
I don't know that I have all wide receiver starts just
because where I'm like at in I got a lot of one-on-one.
It's harder, right? Because there's so there is
running back value like that. It's just true.
There is more running back value in round.
I got I know I got a couple twelves and I know one I think
I'm only at I've only through four picks and I started
Receiver receiver. I don't know which of the two.
I've had a couple latex for it. You know, almond Rock and get
Wilson and Adams, and Liam are all in that range and then I got
DK and Debo at the three, four turn.
I know I started, four straight receive it from the 12 slot, but
I mean, if you get that type of receiver depth, you can go back
to like the old-school like Puris Ross.
This is 0 or B even without any kind of other detours.
Just get so much receiver Firepower before like the
eighth. I mean maybe you want to take a
tight end eat or something, probably do you probably want to
delete one of the two ones? He's one of keep your tie-down
is true, but I think you can still build a really strong 0r B
room starting in like round nine like a really good one for yes,
11:51 really strong like really strong.
Like I have I have a team. That's it was like, Richard
white Cam Akers, Damien Harris and like a gentleman, Warren
maybe and I was thinking Harris if things break right for him,
he could Look around three pick next year honestly.
Yeah, so I was looking at that team and I've been I had a
choice between Devon Singletary and Marvin memes.
And I was like I just want to go Mims here because I feel like
I'm like actually super strong running back but I took I took
Singletary because I was like this is a true zero running back
build. You should continue to add fire
but my wide receivers are very strong so but there is like it's
such a strong range in that, you know, round like late-round 72.
Like it does dry up pretty quickly.
I would say it kind of starts to dry up by the early ground, 11
range, but you can just Hammer that and then I'm like shit.
Like this feels like I took running backs in 2019, starting
in round 4, right. Someone just said you can start
56 receivers and have mix in is like a Suitor ink pseudo anchor
running back. Like what are things we talked
about with mix-ins ATP. And you got a but you can't.
I like I like that better with like a quick little stop at the
Chalet for like a hot chocolate of like Mark Andrews.
It's like I like I like that. A lot better if you skirt away
from the Avalanche to get yourself a little cocoa you
know, a little a little sprinkle on top.
I like I like that. I like it a lot better than just
be just because I mean for the very simple reason of I do
think, I think this matters much less and the FPC and I mean
we're going to get into the 0r B.
Holy Wars, I don't pray about a month from now is when all that
stuff will start but I do think Sports as soon as we go to FPC
because I think it's still like normal over there.
I think it's the Gary years ago. But the issue is I do think it's
probably from I would I wonder if we should ping Leone or
hating them this but my guess is it's bad to be in the Thor,
sixth round taking a player who cannot contribute to your
lineup. If things go.
Well, right. Like my my guess would be that
from an optimization perspective to be spending you know for
thinking of these in terms of like auction dollars or whatever
might, you know, to be spending. You know, 15% of your cap on a
player who if things are going well will nor, or will
invalidate. The guy you just spent thirty
percent. That's not how wide receiver
scoring works. Yeah.
I don't want to see her depth is always what this because they
are volatile and they have higher Peaks and but they can
also have well, you're giving yourself six outs to, you know,
for insanely good what you're? But you're really at running
back, whatever. You know the distribution there
is going to be more random but you're really crushing.
The potential Point you'll have available at quarterback and
tight end. Well, I do think you want to get
at least one Elite. Yeah, it would be yeah, I agree
with that. It's tough to eat.
If you're if you're training yourself intentionally towards
the three qb3 tie-dyed built and the answer for mean, typically
is the elite tight end is the preference, right?
So that's again. Well, there where the prices
are? I mean, if you look at what
happened last year, right, great year for elite quarterback.
By the way, people hate hearing it.
Great year for really tight. End view had kelsier kittel.
It was a smash. So the the leak tight end just
feels worse, because in order like one of the ways, it can be
a great year for Lee tight end, is that every tight end, but to
suck, but it's like, hey, if you have been, if you have those
two, it's an it and one of them who didn't suck suck for most of
the year. And then was good, right?
Kelsey was just a Faraway. Absolute smash.
But that was the whole thesis was that.
They, he could like one of these illegal activity.
Yeah. Just Slap the field, right?
Field includes a lot of bus for the other guys that we all took,
which feels shitty and it wasn't enough depth or upside all the
way in the late rounds or wasn't going to be a late round, smash
it tight end. We all saw this, right?
I mean this was what the market is, reacted saying I'm in on Ali
quarterback. That feels good.
Prices are up, you know. Now they're falling a little bit
from where they started, but they're still up and prices are
down on tight ends. Like, in a big way.
Kyle pits you can get him in the late sixth a lot, right?
Dallas car. You can get him in the early
seventh, sometimes like these times force myself to not let my
first too fast dress. I took pits.
I think I had too many pios and I had to force myself to like I
can't have 50% calpads again. Like I had to stop taking
immediately but I think I don't think that's gonna take this
guy. It's way it's for what his
ceiling is. It stupid?
It doesn't make any sense. There's no reason you should be
going out to drink London in the same offense, the same, like
London's profile is not better than pits. .
Yeah, I don't. Do you think is a wide receiver?
He is a little bit higher of a production ceiling, but I get
what you're saying, but he doesn't get to unintelligible.
Marginal right crane. We gotta go.
We gotta go to the risers, bro. Where I gotta ask you a quick
question before 45 NM podcast. But FYI, it's your pick
notification. I've seen people complain about
this. How about its mistakes?
I think that what are you doing? Why don't you?
I don't, there's no reason to complain about that.
That's a good thing over and over again.
I'm in 30 slows, I get these. FYI, it's your pick
notifications constantly. Hey, I just want you guys to are
fading Derrick. Henry to know that season-long
props are coming out if he's got the highest rushing yardage prop
of any running back, just, I haven't gotten anywhere close to
timing out like that. Even five hours close.
I don't need these five. He was telling me to move on,
followed by been saying, hang on.
I've got something to say about the FYI.
It's your pick. Notification is an all time I
stopped getting it. I thought there was a way to
start getting. All right, let's move to the
risers. The Slide in the slide decks 40
minutes in. We are to the first slide.
I did want to. I did check it as we were
talking. There are no 80.
There are no risers for quarterbacks on this list was
kind of interesting given how many are falling?
No one's kind of coming up to replace them.
Like I thought maybe like are we seeing a Richardson increase?
And if anything else it's just it's just all it's all its
unilateral to all across the board.
All due respect to run down more, who's up to 148 know?
All all due respect. You don't seem very respectful
Davis. Yes, still too low.
No, no, it's not Rondell. Rot like Rondell like a gadget
guy. I literally would rather Greg
Dortch in the last round than Rondell more at his new price.
Now I think I funny I think I think he's one of the few guys
outside that's wide receiver window was talking about
earlier, that could be justifiably inside of it with
this profile TR has him ranked 115th overall. so he's going to
continue to rise, I would say It just feels like there's not that
much meat on the bone. If Earth's is not retiring if
somehow Earth's Gerald still there and Hollywood Brown is now
the Hollywood Brown rise who also that I get.
I'm actually on board. I'm completely toured with.
I think I've always been above Market on him.
I think he's very good. I thought it was Savvy business
by the Cardinals to acquire him but Rondell, it's just like I've
wanted Rondell to happen so many times.
Times in my life like it feels like it feels like I bet it
feels like a decade of Rondell more and it's been two years.
I don't know. I just start by your like
admitting that you don't want to drive them because you're sick
of and that's what it's more just it's more just he's had a
lot of opportunities to play and he just is, is really a pretty
mediocre football player. He didn't really play much as a
rookie, he was a gadget players. A rookie but don't like what I
think. I died like .5 or something but
I think I think that is a - I think I think we ought, isn't he
right? It is - we do this with rookies
we like you know they this is classic ship chasing right here
where it's like with a rookie. We like really?
Yeah. But he didn't really get a
chance to play and that a guy we don't like really.
He couldn't even get all the field.
He stinks, you know, where that's 100% true.
But I would say if you want to You know, to say, he is what he
is, when he hasn't really played as a little tougher.
Like, you can say, he's maybe not very good because I haven't
been able to get on the field a lot.
I think he hasn't played at the NFL level of the college level
either, right? But he was very productive when
he played the players would do this on are the ones.
I always am writing about and talking about a longer timeline.
They're the ones that we saw produce at a really high level
in college. Those games.
Don't Count for our fantasy football but they're real
competitive football games that people love to just like
completely ignore happen because they want to look at only the
NFL track record. There's a difference between not
getting on the NFL level but having shown in college that you
can produce on the field in ways that tends to be right.
But there's there's a real knot and shown that and then also not
producing the NFL, but there's a very real reason why Rhonda
would be capable of producing numbers in college that he would
not be able to duplicate at the NFL, which is that he's the
size. An infant.
He's he is extremely like he is so small.
He is. He is 56, dude.
He is a baby. He is very small.
If you have that that's that's there's no there's no counter to
that point. It's the same thing.
Like any time, any time I start
to get excited about like 22 at. Well, who I like think is going
to play so much this year. I don't really see a way around
him. Not but it's like there's just a
to me. It feels like an extremely
limited range of outcomes when you're literally that small.
The difference with 22 is weight is different, a lot difference
in height Rondell still 180. He's jacked up, he squatted.
He's hungry. Extremely Jami.
Yeah, he is, he's a, he's a good bowling ball player.
When we've seen players like a Darren Sproles kind of, you
know, you're like that's super stocky, mold Maurice Jones-Drew.
Like, he's not a running back, obviously, but we generally have
seen running backs in this mode, more than receivers.
It's not I'm not I think it's bringing me.
Pleasure to be, to be the guy, you know, having to having the
Negron Elmore, I've like Ronelle more for a long time, but I like
the range of outcomes for Rondell more on a the worst team
in football with Clayton tune quarterbacking like kind of the
thesis with Rondell was always like yeah well you know they
Cliff it's the horizontal raid and Kyler's like you know
running around doing stuff like it's it was all sort of tied and
now it's like no one knows. That's part of why I kind of
like the wrong they'll play is it is going to be a shit show
and they're going to need something.
And it's like, also, like that's got some run last year, when it
became, you've been promised. Let's just start chucking the
ball. Downfield, the 22 at, well, and
see what happens. That's why that's why I'm
drafting, that's why I'm drafting door, chime drafting
Dortch for the true shit show, which is that it goes so
sideways that the up, they build the entire offense at a four
yard passes to Greg door, if you want to know Davis.
To open your third eye on the sky.
You know, if you say Michael Wilson to me, I'm like leaving
this dream. I was gonna say Michael Wilson.
I mean, no. Mike third round Receiver right.
Michael Wilson is made up dude. Michael Wilson was like a New
England Patriots psyop. They brought him in for a top 30
visit. He's like, he's like a five-year
specialty more at a school that doesn't throw the forward pass
Davis. If Michael Wilson went in the
seventh round, you would be touting him non-stop.
He is, he's literally Jeff Janis f.
Heck yeah, he is he really is fucking awesome.
Yeah. Jeff Jonas was really productive
though. People forget it Saginaw Valley
State, dude. You just put number.
That's true speaking. Speaking of speaking of like,
sir Pruder film level stuff, we gotta get tray lands on the
largest ADP followers do. Did you guys see that clip of
him missing? That throw in 49ers can oh it
wasn't that bad? Yes, it was Sam.
Do you work on that as you can sail throws?
And he sails the throw and it's like one bad rep.
When your shoulder is completely open is not like I was actually
encouraged by his Mobility is like look great.
His leg. Totally, he's moving around a
bunch and then he throws and the coach does look very dejected
with the ball goes away over his head.
Like I get, I get David's this point for sure.
But I mean, like, you can make anyone look but not anyone here
but a lot of quarterbacks look bad with that drill.
I think here we go. The audio capability looks
great. The audio listeners are really
missing out right here. And then if you see, there's no
way you can sell this to me is not a big deal.
Make that throw. Same Donald, most talented,
thrower, igniters history of you.
Have you seen the Anthony Richardson Pro?
Yeah. Great throw but it's pretty fun.
I mean are you talking? Are you doubting me talking
about the one where he is like literally running around for
like Seventeen seconds and then throws it into a net?
Yes it does. Great great.
I'm extremely interested in this.
I mean, this is look at him. Look at
one of these guys who's extremely long strides You just,
I cannot wait. Another Ryan gets sent, us is
literally the same person and you have a completely.
Oh no. Oh no.
Hang on. I got another one.
I got another one for us. Is it the brightest of the one
where Bryce young looks like. He's about four foot six.
No Ryan, Ryan DMG and Adriana has won the Trail ants 10.
It's like it's like enough, you know, she's Yeah, but you're
going to want to see it anyway is that he's not the coach who's
standing about 10 feet away from social stop?
That was coming back before it lands.
The coastlines, not not 20 anymore.
Are you saying that this is a psyop by the 49ers coaches to
her? Trey Lance's confidence.
No did an inside job. Oh God.
Yes. Oh God, please.
Is that Arnold? Who is it - Jimmy?
Or was it is Jimmy? How long ago was that Jimmy?
That's what I was thinking. Immediate wasn't any change in
temperature. Okay, that's the chances.
It's not Sia. What does it say about Trail
ants? That we thought that was Joe it
right? Right.
It does. I mean confidence confidence.
My confidence cooler, consumer confidence and Trail ads is at
is at an all-time low. I mean, it is because the the
big thing is, is no one. I don't think, I don't think
anyone believes Korean. We talked about this last week.
Obviously, we talked about trailer and every week on this
program, I don't think anyone actually believes in the thesis
that you outlined either last week or two weeks ago, which is
that he starts the season and actually plays well enough to
keep the job. I don't think anyone is drafting
him. That way, I don't think anyone
believes that Well, then like, what's the point?
What's the play? There is no, there is no point.
The point is just to take pretty, which I do, you're
saying no one, no one thinks that Lance can start all season?
No, I don't think I truly think that people believe that the
only way land starts is by default.
I don't think anyone, I don't think anyone.
Yes, we've stopped sharing the slides, we are only looking back
on wrong, but why? Yeah.
You could just present this if you would prefer but I'm about
to pull it up. Alright so this is another
video. And we have to, we have to do,
we have, do we have Donald now and God by side throwing
motions? I'm getting confirmation.
That this is not a g. This is definitely not Jimmy G,
we have confirmed So it's both are throwing motions.
My point is, Lance does this drill and throws a good ball
that's going right to the guy. So look, there's a one good rep.
They actually look pretty soon. Why is his throwing motion?
So lateral. You know what I mean?
Not only throwing motion. Looks better for this drill.
He stays wide man's has to like turn his body in a way that he's
not supposed to for the drill. He's like incapable of doing the
drill. Well, Lance confirmed as good as
Sam Donald. So what could go wrong?
That's all right. Let's get back to the charts
here. Any other Riders, why is Hopkins
ATP up. There's only one spot.
He could go. Where his price would be better?
I thought the right weird, I disagree.
Okay, where are the spots you would go?
Where you'd like it more? If he goes to the the Chiefs I
mean it's an absolute smash that you're getting an ATP value.
So like you want to price that in a little bit at 8:30.
How high do you think he gets? I think you would go to the two
three turn. Maybe but that's not.
Yeah. Do you think there would be any
corresponding fall from Kelsey? If he gets pushed up that high a
little bit? Yeah.
Yeah those who would be more like what do I take Kelsey, or
Bijan or Kelsey irregular? I think people would be a little
bit more like to be in that range.
Okay. All the Elijah more Riser is
just because people had the same Instinct that I did, which is
they get to that range of wide receiver and they're like, I'm
not clicking a little Beckham. I'm not clicking.
You just with Schuster, I'm not clicking.
Of these, it has nothing to do with him.
It has nothing to do with his. He's always anything because
anything, if anything, he should be falling.
But it's just because he's he has is Young and not as
disappointing and grows as some of the other.
Yeah, like I've even I've backed off taking him as he's gotten
more expensive because I'm a dad.
He still might be my most Raptor wide receiver, I hope he's not
Jerome Ford. Rising is interesting.
I think it's a reminder that like sometimes the markets just
sort of slow on like, very Snooze like that.
This isn't even really news but like, since the combine Matthew
Berry our berries, article with with the combine rumors, Jerome
Ford being the locked in? Number two, in Cleveland, was in
that piece. Everything they've done since is
that he's been locked in number two and it feels like people are
just like, he's locked in number two.
It's like we've known this for months.
We've sometimes. Yeah.
Sometimes that just isn't like like known enough for just like
enough people don't care. So I don't know if you feel like
you have a strong green about that, I would keep getting
longer. It goes with like cream hunt.
Not site. Like, I think, you know, during
the free agency period look when Barry did write that and it
should have been known. People are like, well, maybe
cream hot will come back or whatever, like, until he signed
somewhere else. I'm not going to believe it.
And now it's been like months and he still a free agents,
okay? With a bronzer, pretty?
Clearly not bringing it back and I think it's sometimes it just
take time but you're right. I mean it should have happened
earlier. Yeah.
I mean like a guy, you know, Hubbard's not on the list this
week but he's definitely risen from where it used to be.
But that's that's one of those ones.
Singletary's and other guy acted like clear number twos and like,
I don't know. I feel like the market
eventually be like, he's the clear tumor to it's like, well,
well and I mean, get him cheat, this isn't a clear number two
thing but it talented players in an offense word.
Be good to be the backup. Tie Chandler and Duane.
McBride were the two guys that I said last time, I was on here
would rise in ATP and They're still last round picks.
I've taken them in some of my drafts already because I still
think that's just ridiculous. If that there was, there was a
report. There was a report that came out
last week that Chandler's probably the to McBride is the
guy is the outside. Looking in the fry machine is
going and integrate seven rounds higher.
If that's the case, right? Like if cook the whole body
Piniella has hi Chandler. We're so handsome.
And so, yeah, so much Yeah. Who's higher?
ETR on Rondell more or Evan Silva and Tai Chan.
Lee the answer is actually, Maybe I'm Wrong.
Maybe I'm Wrong about Rondell. I don't know.
Because of the context of how bad wide receiver is like, I'd
rather have Rondell d'anjou Smith Schuster.
Probably right. That's yeah, beckworth making I
don't think the likelihood of it hitting his high, but it is
about worth making as opposed to Juju.
Like, is that even a bet with making a team throughout the
18th round, Greg torch though. I can't there's I can't tell
you, Thank you. I kind of like it.
All right. Let's watch as we should.
Yeah, why is Josh debt? Why is Josh Downs following so
much this? Because he should have been.
He should have been going here. The whole time.
Yeah, he's a third round. Pick did people just get people
just got really excited about like the first day of rookie
OTAs and they were, like, I gotta take a year.
So Josh Downs together. No, it's it wasn't a high
pre-draft. That's what it was.
Is it his price never corrected? Pull strap?
Like he was thought, like, maybe he's going to be a late first
round her at first, then I was like, well, it made us more
second. Rounder, Third, there was a rub,
the bills are gonna take him in the late first and they end up
taking Kincaid for the slot role but that's exactly exactly.
So I think Hyatt is another guy who is, what is contained on
this list? When is Kincaid going to be on
the fallers? What are we doing?
But don't Kincaid everybody. I don't know but there comes on
the rise was at least, right? Yeah.
But coming out there like we don't even know how to use it.
Pump the brakes. Like we're literally telling you
we don't know anything about it. Like the last quote was like we
got to get to know who he is. Us to get to know us.
We don't even know what we're doing here.
Like props I've gotten Dawson knocks in the 17th.
Yeah, I took him already a couple times in my fast.
That's the starting tight end for the bills.
That's an easy one for three, tight end, builds like that's an
easy one, easy, I think you can take him.
I think I was going to say you could take him as a backstop to
Kelsey or Andrews or holds, no problem.
I think you could take them to a backstop to in-joke.
Ooh like if I haven't Joko and Dawson are you guys I'm okay.
Do you guys find yourself taking David a joke?
Ooh, because you're Sitting there on the clock in the ninth
round and you're like all these other names make me like
actively ill. So I'm just going to take David
and joke. Ooh, I do sometimes, take that.
Yeah, yeah. Well and Joe goes higher than
frying fry moves, the one that I've gotten.
So I like firemen flat to. I saved him a lot of range.
I'm sure I'll take and joking when some of my slows get their
farm with goes ahead of him but that ATP is actually in joke who
hire right now Right? Yeah, that's true.
And and farm with Falls for some reason, like he was sitting
there, I needed a running back really bad and I couldn't take
him, but he was like 8:26 EP in one draft.
Try z2e. Anyone else here?
And now I think we're good. I feel like there's someone I
said we talk about them, we didn't talk about but whatever.
All right stacks, these are your weak 17-game Stacks.
The prices of them, the expensive team here in purple
and the cheaper team in red. You know what's in the cost of
getting a full week, 17 games Tech are you know it's a great
game stack. The Houston Texans in Tennessee
Titans. Yes, I feel like we're talking
about this. Last time, I was on and had
talked about the week prior the ATP ATP is not doing.
You can get, you can get the leading receiver for the Titans.
Let's so exciting to make this about Derrick Henry, you can get
the leading receiver for the Titans in the seventh round.
You can get a little carry, lumber Story Goes, whichever
quarterback you prefer, right? Whether it be Weatherby
Tannehill, whether it be love, is whether it be strategy,
you're only taken Stroud, right? You're not.
Taking a Titans quarterback right now, and I take a lot, I
take a lot of shred right now. On grounds, a good thing right
now. An underdog Stroud is, how much
do I, what are you snacking with Nico Nico?
You can do a little with Schultz.
Honestly, you guys been you. You wouldn't even engage with
this on ship chasing, but I am taking some Robert Woods.
Yeah, no I'm not going to do that.
I'm not going to do that. But other words is 31 years old.
He's now two years removed from an ACL tear and they gave him a
lot of money so he's going to make the team and he's going to
be out there and it wasn't like I said, it's probably fine, but
he was really bad last year, he was really bad last year.
That's true. But he was so boring here, often
ACL, maybe he. Yeah but doesn't see racial
thing is good call on this table.
Now that I've actually done some drafts, a couple things I want
to highlight Last week on ship, chasing a talked a lot about
liking Washington. I haven't really been able to
build a ton of that, but I like where their players go and
different Pockets McLaren, and Dalton and Gibson.
Do you like do you like how? And then I like Halle.
I actually really liked how I think he's like a really easy so
cheap play to answering the QB upside thing late because I do
think they could be good. I think their skill positions
can be really concentrated to, they don't have a wide receiver
for they don't have liked, I tend to they don't have a VAR B
3, so like they could be like Jacksonville in that regard, how
they became really concentrated last year, like everyone.
Same guys are running every route, same five skill players
but what I like about no reason want to highlight it also the
Washington San Francisco thing. I have a hard time, clicking.
Just generally some of the San Francisco guys early, it's
pretty steep price and you're worried about like well what if
trillion since I love Debo I love you this price.
I do like Devon and Iva taken a decent amount of him but like to
take Depot or Kittle or whatever.
One of the reasons, one of the reasons I like to watch this
document more, is it gives me a reason to like take those guys?
I'm like, well, this is great. I can do a back door, wash.
Stack later and I'll have a one-off.
You know. Can only reduce coverley.
I kind of like it. Why would you undertake Purdy?
Yeah. I think it's a decent idea and I
think I will in some spots. I've actually taken one lance I
don't think I'm doing it enough. I think I need to take more
Purdy. Yeah I think party does make
sense. I had one that I had Depot and
kittel and I ended up taking lanceolate on a 3qb build and I
was like I should take a pretty was a fast draft but I should
take a pretty but so the other one I want to highlight was
Seattle, Pittsburgh similar Vibe where I like I don't know if I
love Metcalfe but I like the Walker price.
I like the lock. Price that you guys were talking
about and then Pittsburgh's are really easy.
One to bring back on the cheaper side, my point, I'm trying to
make is, you can make the expensive play on.
Some of these like concentrated more expensive offenses, and
they have a really nice viable, concentrated cheap bring back.
You don't even need to do a full game SEC, just a correlated play
with Pittsburgh, you can do them in different areas of the draft.
I did a lot of Seattle Pittsburgh man.
That's when I hit firing with coming back or Pickens is in
that range where you're running out of receiver value or even
deante. Johnson is a really nice value.
The enthalpy lines up, really nice if you're on the back end
because you can get both Jason and lock it, you could have
gotten Metcalf there Deonte will sometimes fall all the way to
the end of the 7th so it all just kind of works.
Yeah I have several of like those combinations so far.
But I like these ones with, there's like one expensive
concentrated offense and one really cheap offense.
Oh Minnesota Green Bay's. Another one is like I think Pat
I uploaded your ranks and shuffle them around the player
that I might have shuffled. The most was Romeo Dobbs.
You're really low on him, I don't get it.
I like I like him too. They're saying Jade reads, going
to play slot. They've talked a lot about that
and all of the offseason stuff I've read is said Dobbs is like
it's Watson and Ops as their two receivers and then Jaden reads
going to try to compete with that.
They're talking about him like he's a starting receiver and he
was really good with Jordan love in the preseason last year.
He's cheap like Get him outside the wide receiver window and as
a correlated peace with like a Jefferson team or Addison or a
Hawkinson pick, I really like like taking him to add to my
receiver death. When I'd like, don't get enough.
He's a guy that you're like I wanted to get your thoughts on
him because you're kind of low on him.
Onion rings. Yeah, I am, I am somewhat low on
him. My issue with Dobbs is that he
wasn't bad last year, but he wasn't particularly good.
And they just drafted a sec around wide receiver who they
are saying, we'll start in the slot.
But they also mentioned several times and the post draft press
conference that they don't view him as a slot only player that
they think he can play outside. And if he does show that
ability, it's coming. I think directly at the expense
of Dobbs should have given good Watson.
I mean, Not only was very good as a rookie but has the draft
got behind him and adds an element of the offense.
That is very valuable with that deep speed.
So I don't think anyway like I'd how does he come off the field
you know compared to Dobbs. So I think Read.
That was my early concern with Dobbs but all that stuff about
read playing the slot seems like really ingrained even reads like
I'm going to be plan to Thomas Law.
Oh yeah yeah he'll definitely start in week 1 doing
projections I would lock in Dobbs for a Full Slate of routes
playing it too wide receiver sets.
The issue is like is he even that good and does that
Disappear by the end of the season?
Sure. And now it's like I've got now I
have Jordan loves wide receiver. 03.
I'm just like, I'm just not that into it.
So yeah, yeah, that's my concern.
That's a, that's a fair concern but the price of love, maybe
Jordan love is awesome though. He thought about it I can
actually do take some Jordan love, but I like two things
really love to what I get it. I like taking with greed is kind
of the the, you know, Reed comes on down the stretch and you know
kind of supercharges love a little bit and you know the
offense gets a little more fun and reads the cheapest.
So to me, I'm like I get who's the wide. 43 by the end of the
year. I would say, I mean, maybe I'm
over overly confident and reads, ability to get on the field.
But I would put it about 50/50 of who the wide receiver through
the number two outside wide receivers by the end of the
season. So give me the cheapest bet on
that. I can see it.
Yeah, I mean II think I think Dobbs is good and Dobbs.
I mean, Dobbs answered the like, yeah, he had shitty draft
Capital but he also liked got on the field and was playing and
helping them score points right away.
Like, I don't know, I feel like that counts for something,
although maybe it doesn't because then they just spent
like a bunch of second-round picks on tight ends and and wide
receivers Reedus cheaper than Tom's but it's only twenty one
picks. I was just looking.
I mean tops is pretty cheap. A pan for like the fact that
he's gonna almost certainly, like you said play a lot week.
One read could get brought along a little bit slower.
I still like Dobbs production, profound College more to even
though he wasn't great year when he did drum fall, you in your
one just wasn't good from an efficiency perspective.
Yeah. They both have kind of
interesting. Not perfect but you know kind of
like you can squint and see it production profiles.
Yeah. But the drive Capital just so
much better for for Reed. I think if he's flashing he's
going to get chances. Yeah, I know.
But they finally, I would like, I would like the Rams Giants
game if it was in Los Angeles, but it being in New York, I just
feel like we're going to get like 27 cam Akers carries.
Like I got a lot of 105 sand in that range, and ended up with a
lot of Cup teams. And a couple of them are fast
drafts. I think already.
And like, I just I didn't want to pull the trigger on any
Giants players late. I think it's time you before.
Well, I like it because you can backdoor it.
You can do. Hi it.
It Stafford to to, you know, whatever.
I mean, they're a billion guys, right?
Hodgins could be your guy wandel because you guys well right now,
I don't, I think this is a, yeah, and I think the most bet
to make an on the Giants, particularly there's so many
names, it could be that I don't like, yeah, I bet one of them
hits but like, what are my odds of being right here?
Like it's just, it's a, it's a low probability bet.
It feels like, so, this is, this is potentially gonna be a very
bad week for me. If Dalvin cook Signs with the
Jets and DeAndre Hopkins signs with the Giants.
Because you know I have heard Giants fans being like we should
sign Hopkins or whatever. No way.
Why would he? I know, I know will they would
do it to just ruin this take, which is that, I think, as a
Hodgins, is A Cut Above the Rest of the Giants receivers, because
he plays the X4 that he's going to be.
He's he's the bigger body reliable guy in the intermediate
area. Well, they don't have anyone
else who does the, I believe. With that that's Darren Waller,
I just did their projection. And I came to the idea that
they're going to play during Waller, TX a lot and they're
going to play Bellinger in line and they're going to to tie-dyed
sets. They did it a decent amount last
year, even didn't even have tight end up like wohlers.
You think they're always playing the axe.
I mean, he's never done that buddy.
That's what do you think his position is all?
It was. Well, I mean maybe 10 years ago
he did I got a pulled up right now.
He's played at least 20% of his stamps, out wide every year of
his career. I don't know if that's all like
accidents are They're coming. They're coming to a race against
press coverage. Yeah, they're I mean big and
fast. He's definitely play against
Peter. I literally a Georgia Tech wide
receiver, dude, he was Calvin Johnson in college that he
played the same position, same coach, all right, Darren Walker
beaten press. I'm sorry, I'm sorry Express,
I'm not like the biggest candidate for dude.
Just got paid got traded out of a shitty situation.
He is just going to chill balls as The 31 year old in New York
like I could really just see Darren Waller playing eight
games. This year suffer technology
Vibes here, for sure. Yes, soft tissue.
It's have been reports of been good on him, that's so far and
Kenny, golly reports. This time, last year were
horrendous, the New York Giants beat reporters.
Don't mess around. They, they called, they called
him. I'll never forget it.
They called him a mannequin, they call.
Yeah, I called him, I would say that, I I trust table and who's
the GM? JoJo, Shane.
Yeah, I trust those guys more in their evaluation of while I'm
bringing them in and the previous regime and I actually
think probably that that's enough of a difference where
like I think they knew what they were doing.
When they went got Waller they're going to use it
intelligently and I do think they were getting him as like a
wide receiver. Not as a tight end necessarily
like more is a wider, that's interesting.
I mean it doesn't sharp if you had 20% wall or primarily at The
X and then you've got Hodgins Hodgins also, It into the slot,
some but I don't think, but those Snaps are blocked by,
like, 80 dudes and they build the whole plane out of 59. 187
pounds. A lot wide receivers, right?
So you don't need Hodgins in the slot anymore.
And then you've got, I think Slaton and high it or probably
your like best flanker type of options, you know, your speed
threat on the outside. They has guys probably
cannibalize each other. They have redundancy at every
spot ultimately as what I was putting like.
So, My little notes, I was like they have Waller and Hodgins are
sort of redundant there. They have hired as high a DOT
guy probably overlaps with slayton's roll.
Some Campbell is obviously one to Robinson some and they also
Crowder. I mean, it's just like they've I
feel like they were trying to get depth for each of their
roles. And if you think about it, that
way Waller and Hodgins being the same role, kind of makes sense.
But they'll be on the field together a lot.
I think, I think they will too. Yeah, I think you're right about
that. I'll while it will play in line
some and Slot some and all Of that.
Yeah, I would say wouldn't you think he'd play slot the most
like that? He would be in the slot
primarily but they I don't feel confident about that, right?
Well the other thing so many slot options and he's the guy
that's actually big and physical.
Like if you're thinking about it from your the Huddle you're like
yeah this tiny 10 obviously guy this guy we're putting him in
the slot this giant there and all guy we're going to put you
on the outside. Well a lot of times with the
slot stuff like this happen with mikasuki, all the time to in two
years ago on the Dolphins like he would play in the slot but it
didn't mean that. He was playing on like the left
side of the formation like they would play a slot wide receiver
on the left side and then just split out kiseki off the line
and essentially it's a 4 wide receiver set but you're using a
tight end. Yeah.
I'm so I would imagine we see some of the guys that we saw how
many four wide receiver sets they used in Buffalo.
So I would imagine you have some of that we essentially have two
slot receivers and one of them staring wallet Sure, that and
that's yeah. And then you have Hodgins in
Slayton on the outside or whether you have Hodgins plating
her or, you know, maybe you have Paris Campbell and high it or
whatever, who knows? But yeah, yeah, yeah, the Giants
are really interesting one. That's it.
That's an interesting game. And I think getting it right,
could be huge. I just, I have Hodgins as a guy,
I want it to be. I have a hard time once I did
the projection, like, figuring out who I actually think it will
be. And whether these bets are like
the right that's to make Waller being the highest price free.
Guy with the higher ATP as well as probably the answer.
Like I think on Sundays Cup team.
I do take some Waller Waller than I see my wall or two is
that you can get him in the seventh if you get cup, you can
get Waller in the seventh easily.
Like he's 80 piece of later in the seventh but he's not coming
back and then that sets up Daniel Jones very easily for you
and now all of a sudden you've got a quarterback with Mobility.
Who've shown a ceiling last year.
He showed second here. It's just you touting.
Another guy that was on your winning team.
I mean, you guys, I mean, I would like to point out Wanda
Robinson, also on my team and I don't tell Wanda Robinson, so
there is. And I also don't tell Sonny
Michelle. So, the only 16 of the 18
players I drafted, but once it, where active and well, if Sony
even on a team, right? You had to be active.
I think so, but now, but Daniel Jones.
Yeah, he's trying to ceiling. Not only as I met weeks, have a
TV score, like, 38 points for you and then you had some other
yet. He had some other points in
another couple Spike, Lee's other than that.
Unless I'm Losing my mind. But you know Mobility second
year in the system upgrades to the skill players, you know, to
get him, he's guy that you can do a quick to quarterback build
with. I think if you, you probably
need to take a guy pretty quickly after get a Gino or
something, but you can do that pretty easily.
But Duke by do that, I mean building a game, Stack Up
Waller, Daniel Jones. If you get locked out of some of
the more exciting stuff, it's just like there for you and then
you can tackle and stuff on the back end so easily to, yeah, I
get it. Yeah, the other thing I think
you could just do naked cop. He's only two players.
I was thinking about this more and I was like yeah that game
could be a dud and cup can still score 35 points like he can have
140 yards. That's a bit.
Yeah, that is that it's a very good point.
Is that, that game can have 19 points scored and cause it to
expand that boy, to expand that point.
As I've been drafting these, I'm more comfortable doing that with
the superstars. And I think the correlation and
the stacks for me is more about the cheaper pieces that I'm
trying to Tell myself a story on, I want to correlate that
stuff and then I'm minimizing the bets.
I have to get, right? But in the early rounds I think
about some of the early stuff like I'm seeing AJ Brown, Golden
Top 5, which I've heard is because they want to get Devonte
Smith in the second Jailer hurts in the third.
But now, like you don't have any other pics until the late 4th of
any other team. That's a lot of really good
players top, 40 players. You have zero exposure to no
ceiling built-in other than that stack, I do think.
Yeah, it's going to be unique and you're gonna have a lot of
ceiling in that stack. The rest of your team is gonna
have to be really really good. And in all likelihood you're
probably going to want to be parlaying.
Some really good players in those first couple of rounds.
At least the way that I'm thinking about it.
I think it's weird to pay for really expensive Stacks only.
I like the stacking, the correlating when it comes to
cheaper pieces and then I'm minimizing the things I have to
get right. The early rounds.
I almost don't want to minimize the things I have to get, right?
Actually, want multiple guys that are like differentiating
me. Like I have this combination of
the three best players from the top 50 picks right?
Like, well also Sunday, three some players.
Some players are going to be more sensitive to correlation
than others, right. Drew also true like like so like
brain and I you, I think is a great pairing with Purdy because
I you ceiling is little too, right?
Yeah, right. I've ceiling is like, okay.
Well, Purdy's got to be good. Lance can't be the quarterback.
Maybe Debo gets nicked up. Maybe McCaffrey gets nicked up
for whatever reason. Like I don't think, I don't
think you. I think see him.
The IU Kettle is like dead. Like that team is like incapable
of winning. Right.
Because it's like if CMC is getting 31 and week 17 George
kittel had a classic George kid'll 3437, right?
Like almost for sure well I wouldn't say it's dead because
kiddo could have gotten you there.
Well Trent, you know, you're such a dick like I had kids like
that's exactly what happened to me.
Is like kid'll scored 10 points in week. 17, If he if I he
scored a zero I had get sticky squirted.
Touchdown who would hit my line up and I didn't wouldn't have
cost me anything but kiddo got me there.
Sure. Fair enough.
So it is its price sensitive. But what you're saying about the
Devante smith thing? I mean that is tough because
like Smith and Aja Brown weren't necessarily getting there
together last year. All that.
Well, like it was more like Smith was kind of the guy who's
got a pretty isolate every week but AG Brown had the nuclear
ceiling. And when he went nuclear, but
wasn't necessarily a great week to have spent all the time.
But that, that is a spot where it's like a got you there, so
it's fine. Yeah, you know, but it's more
expensive than I get what been saying.
Like, you love to have ideally your first three picks all score
30 points in week 17 and it's unlikely that that both those
receivers score 30 points. In the same fact they probably
won't. Right, right?
Right. And I mean, if we're also
talking about a landscape where people are correlating way more,
like I'm I'm I'm coming into this late.
I'm some sort of trying to be like, how can I differentiate,
how can I find an edge? That's not there.
For well, you just we're still early on all this stuff though.
I think, I don't think you need to like be outsmarting the
correlation Bros, like you can put some of the stuff.
Like, I mean, I know you're not supposed to recent correlation
anyway. So if you get good value, then
you do it. But like, especially with some,
anything has talked about this, with the running backs.
Like I was saying it took a lot of room, Andre, I think part of
how Ramon Drake is the guy you want.
In the New England, Buffalo game.
In week 17, there are ways that he's a part of a shootout but
like if New England actually like wins that game, like way
less way less likely though, right?
Like Ramon, Drake worm Andre It's, I mean, it's the same
thing for Henry. I think it's the same thing for
Kenny Walker and week, 17, against all yours is less,
likely, they're part of a shootout, it's more likely, they
are dominating the game. And I'm saying, I'm saying, with
the running backs, where a lot of their were you're thinking
about a lot of their upside being in touchdowns and even for
even for guys who we like we're mandra who we think will catch
passes or whatever, it's still better for them to score
touchdowns in this scoring system.
You would if I offered you Right now I could say week 17 the
running back you just you drafted gets four carries inside
the five or eight targets. You're taking four carries
inside the five ten out of ten times in Underdog scoring.
Now DraftKings I've actually I think you need to I think you
need to consciously be drafting a little bit differently on
DraftKings because Seco on Berkeley say Quan Berkeley
getting 12 Targets in a game that the Rams end up getting
ahead because to to out well scored a 70 yard touchdown.
On a Flea Flicker on the opening play.
Well, is that that works? All right, now we're defense
fiction. You guys are using his profile.
The storm the to to have you not been seen the clips coming out
of rams Camp, dude. There he is into two down the
field buddy. The storm is coming.
Are we gonna get out? He's like, he's a duster, you
know, it's a light dusting, it's a light down here to they did a
good. This is just a single cloud.
They showed a clip of him the other day.
Hi pointing a ball in between, like, in between two Defenders,
I gotta go find my man, high five.
Well, hi pointing imagine. Imagine you're an NFL Defender
and you just got Moss by 22 out. Well, you gotta just you got to
take off, you got to take off your cleats you guys do.
Well it's just retired pointing of football.
Three yards off of this does Seem viable.
No, it's yeah. I mean I'll go dig for it.
I'll go dig for it. I'll find it.
It's beautiful point. Being I don't know, I don't
know. Yeah, the same was, if I think
Andre, I don't feel the need to get, but you're already not
getting digs in the third round on your team or something would
be kind of cool. But like, you're already not
getting the best piece of Buffalo and it's like, I don't
really feel like I have to jam Buffalo into that.
I wouldn't mind taking an ox or whatever and still getting some
type of a little correlation there.
But remonda is it dude that I don't like a paying a lot for
him and for him to hit a ceiling he's like New England's, good
and there. Running The Bold and they're
playing their type of football. And he's like the main guy that
scores points in a lot of their games.
And then in week 17, he can like be part of the reason that
Buffalo teams fail in the week. 17, I want other correlations
out here and my Ramon. Dre, you know, game is greatest
when you display this video. Kareem, I want people to know.
I'm not making this up. Yeah, it's real.
I just I put in our private chat private chat, okay?
Yeah. I just, I want, I but Ben, I
think to your point, I just think the idea is you just need
to be conscious of the correlations, you're making is
just not enough that you guys are playing each other.
Like, for example, can't really think of a worse correlation
that Derrick, Henry, and Damien pierce the chances of those two
guys, write getting there and weeks at.
It's like, it's literally impossible.
Look at this play, Come on, come on.
It's body control dude, here to practice squad,
defensive backs. Not going to give to to credit
for making this play. You are, you cannot be trusted.
You can you cannot? You cannot.
I cannot trust you guys to give level-headed analysis on him.
If you can't count this as a good play, this is taking to do
at. Well, I'm not even answer.
Alright, so that is a hype. That is a high point well for to
do at. Well it is your 22 at while that
is a high point, it got it at the the height of the referee.
Yeah they're you're right. This is a high point for 22 at
well and he's barely above the defender.
That's the that's the thesis. That's right.
What you're watching what you're watching is is the thesis.
Okay. Oh that's beautiful.
I want to just circle back to Ben's point on cheap correlates
because I think it's a good one I think if your Betting on a
bunch of guys from the same team.
The Texans are one that I like for this.
You know, you just kind of can scoop up a bunch of cheap dudes
or whatever and you're getting you're getting not only the week
17 stuff. But just like what if the Texans
are like the 18th best offense in the NFL?
Yes. What if the Texans are decent?
And then this is this is something with the week. 17
stuff. Like you do not need to be
perfect and week 17, I think you can basically be, you can be
directionally accurate. Like, you know, if you correctly
predict it, there are It's in that game and that there are
going to be like touchdowns from cheap players in that game.
So hard, not to use the example from your team last year.
I don't remember you talking about, I don't remember it.
I don't remember the Brady. You didn't have Evan.
No, it wasn't pretty. No, I wasn't ready, he didn't
have happens, right? It was Godwin know you had God
would not Evans and Evans was the smash but you had.
That's not what I mean. I'm talking about taking guys.
Like in the super late rounds, where you can like a couple of
them don't do anything, but some of them do.
And it's and you happen to be in the right game environment or
betting on the right offense, like that offense.
We saw this with the Jaguars last year who I didn't draft on
my team and, you know, the Jaguars, they all kind of got
there with cheaper atp's and, you know, then it wasn't week 17
because Lawrence had a dud, but, you know, say Jones had a
absolute smash week in week 15, you know, that if that had been
week 16, right, like or week, And then you would have
absolutely had to have say Jones so yeah, some of this stuff.
Obviously it's just like highly variant.
But if you bet on a bunch of guys from the same offense, it
really cheap cost. Then you benefit if they all get
there together with the course of the season.
And then if there's points then week 17 games, you have a bunch
of different outs to being on the right guy.
The reason I'm giving you crap about that is, I actually was
thinking about this when I was mocking up, the steak is like,
that's how Pat's team is built, like, your stocks were the
cheaper stacks and we talked about stacks and we talked about
it like, DFS we talked about Out, limiting the number of
things you get, right? But we also talked in DFS
sometimes about how it's very difficult to pay for the really
like to pay for my home's. Tyreke and Kelsey a couple years
ago was really tough because you would like you so much of your
of your salary cap on that really expensive stack.
Yeah, could differentiate you but you still probably didn't
win because you can't get enough ceiling out of the rest of your
salary cap, but it's not that easy to do in India Fest about
the lineup and similar from Alec like, like Davis was saying
earlier, if we think about like an auction dollars, you're using
50% of your option dollars. When you go, One, two, three in
the same offense, the rest of your draft is like there's just
not enough. Upside in the rest of that.
Anyway you're missing out on a lot of other opportunity costs
on high price players. In the early rounds that same as
DFS, you're not able to pay for a lot of other high price
Players, when you're one, stack takes up half your cap.
So I think the getting getting fewer things right, applies on
the thinner, bets more than it does on all the good vets like
atp's pretty sharp on the top 50, like all of those are good,
pets. Independent of correlating,
like, those are going to years, you Here's one spot where I
would it's sort of. I don't think I'm even
disagreeing but it's just a different thing.
If you are taking the elite quarterbacks that you're going
to want them to have particularly I mean if you're
betting on like Mahomes or Borough, like they're not
getting their solo, like they're getting their head.
I have those guys unstack, the difference in the difference.
In best ball versus DFS is that in DFS you have to choose
between bought a scantling, Richie James, Justin Watson
could area Stony, right. Guy more Rishi rice.
Whereas in, I mean, theoretically, you could
literally take for Chiefs wide receivers.
Like after pick a hundred and ten percent, I'm cool with that.
Yeah, that actually makes a lot of sense.
I think if you're going to take them home and then just go load
up. I don't actually think it's good
because like not all those guys can make the team.
Right. Although I guess cream on 21.
Justin Ross is active. Yeah.
The Justin Ross Opie. Let's do it.
I mean, if Justin Ross makes the team, Justin Watson can't be on
the team, right? It's right, right.
And then they give him, like, almost as much money as you made
last year, guaranteed. I don't know.
I feel like they guaranteed his contract.
I think, really, the other thing is, I actually just isn't Richie
James, a punt. Returner are my new sobering
that so that as someone as someone who was forced to watch
Sky, that's got more as someone who was forced to watch.
Sky more returned. Punts last year, I feel like,
Richie, James, just being a competent punt.
Returner might make it much more likely than the market is saying
right now that he makes the team because the Chiefs straight up
lost. A game against the Colts in the
regular season because of their special teams.
I don't I don't I think I think they're going to take, I think
he's well which is that James makes the team Sky.
More is going to have a rough year too.
I think that was so this will cast two getting called ship
chasing ship. It sucks.
I'm sorry. I'm gonna steal it because it's
so funny. I mean although I was talking to
Eric eager from Sumer Sports the other day he actually cuz he's
not as in the weeds with the the fantasy nerd stuff.
So he he wasn't as angry at Sky more on producing in year one.
He actually gave a kind of bullish take on sky-high.
I know I listen that was a good show SkyWars.
Definitely a good pick right now.
He is I don't I 0 I was all the way out like three weeks ago and
The more I've thought about it. This is where I've landed which
is that there's were actually really no difference between Sky
more and canaries Tony, it's just whichever one it like if
either of them happens to be good it's your you're going to
get rewarded. Like if Sky more can earn 120
Targets this year. It's a bigger thing is awesome,
is possible. My bigger thing on the Moor is
again this wide receiver window that slams, shut there are
precious few profiles after the ninth or tenth round, right?
And you get a, if you didn't get enough receiver depth II,
absolutely thinks kind warm is a viable like wide receiver, for
it's a reason to get that wide receiver depth.
Oh yes, it's not it's not something you want to have to
depend a lot of he's great. But it does have the requisite
upside that can can fix a bill. Basically and there's not a lot
of guys at that point, that have that type of site like it.
Possible you go. The thing that sold me early in
the offseason was somebody and I can't remember who to credit.
But somebody saying basically all throughout injuries, entire
coaching career, he's never had a rookie receiver, do anything
like he's never pushed rookie receivers into big roles.
For like, dating back to the Eagles, it's taken time to learn
the offense and those things. And the yeah, more hardened,
Hardman actually played more as a rookie than in any other year
of his career. That was due to a Tyree kill
injury and a very specific skill set and it was a, you know, we
need to speed in our offense. Yeah.
And then and then when Tyree kill came back hardman's.
Roll like completely dissipated even though he had been
producing well, son, I would say one could argue the Chiefs
having zero good wide receivers last Here would have been a good
reason. A place guy more.
Like, they're they're out there. Like there was a there was a
stretch where Marcus Kemp was getting snaps and Sky more was
on the bench. Yeah, it's so it's definitely
Juju Juju stunk last year like he had it.
Well, that's where you're like, okay, I'll just a little bit of
a revisionist history, he got hurt and then he stunk, he got
he got injured and like I want to say week 7 and kept playing,
but it was like he was irredeemable after that point.
Yeah. Right.
Maybe unfair to Juju the professional wide receiver.
But I don't think unfair to the idea that like, no, no, I had a
window to get on the field and didn't take it.
Yes, I don't know what you guys are talking about.
He scored a touchdown this game, a love game.
Winning Super Bowl touchdown well so did so did it was so did
Tony and the only play was called her Tony.
I wanted one thing that keeps coming.
This is not fantasy football related but if Scott if Tony
would have just scored that touchdown the punt return
instead of getting tackled on the floor.
For all of us, when our hundred to one killer is Tony Super
Bowl, MVP vets and we'd all have a lot more money and I hold
still would have want it and you would have been no one.
You know you think that you think that Gretch but what would
could areas Tony's touchdown of them first punt return touchdown
ever in the history of the Super Bowl?
The voters, the voters are giving it to him for they had
one other Touch One Target one, Got to get in the mind of a
Super Bowl MVP in their mind. That's a Percy Harvin take and
they gave it to Malcolm Brown in that Seahawks Super Bowl and
again, welcome Brown because he made like one of the most
memorable plays in NFL history. What was it?
I mean, that's, that's true. I don't remember an interception
the intercept. Oh, that wasn't at the Super
Bowl. That was in the NFC championship
game against the Niners. When Richard Sherman tipped, it
to him. No, he's still on the scene at
the play. Where are you grunts?
Are you drunk? They weren't even, they didn't
run the ball. Have you bought this out when
they didn't run the ball with Marshawn Lynch and they pass it
and he intercepted it Malcolm Brown.
Oh, now what about Malcolm Butler?
You guys are talking about Malcolm Butler.
I'm talking about Bobby Wagner know who won Super Bowl MVP for
the Seahawks. It was a linebacker.
Well I don't know I literally do not I literally do not remember
this. 2013 Super Bowl the MVP. They not listen on pro football
reference. What what the hell was his name?
I'm looking at them. Nice guys, the Super Bowl 80
Malcolm Smith, Malcolm Thomas Smith, Michael Brown Malcolm
Smith, they gave it to her uncle Malcolm around.
We're so far off throws Malcolm Brown was the rabbits running
back, who scored two touchdowns in week, one in 2018, because
Look there to Malcolm Brown. So that's why I let it go
because there was, yeah, it was like, oh, there's two Malcolm
Brown. So one at.
So, not the running back must have.
Oh my god. Dude, he had an interception
return for a TD. That's their hair.
Is there is a chance that this show is jump the shark,
including just to Circle that back to this including to punt.
Returns could Darius Tony played Seven snaps in the Super Bowl.
I'm just telling you guys, I feel what they 100% degree of
certainty. If he scored the first punt
return touchdown NFL history to tilt that game, which it did the
return. Did anyway, he's winning Super
Bowl MVP. I don't care.
You can't tell me any differently, it's 100%.
You gotta get that guy, which is remember that NFL play.
Yeah, that almost won me money. Let's move to slide 4.
We are now halfway through the slides.
We are going to the double stuffed cabbage, a deep east,
Anything jump out here, who's you should not about to be on
after the weekend where I like went on a vacation and got a
draft under. No, I mean it's actually been
amazing, but what you do is I'm gonna show you guys you guys
like taking Aaron Rodgers with Garrett Wilson or do you just
like to let the Vibes dictate? I because I don't like taking
here in Rogers, right? I'm not drafted him yet, I'll
take him some. I mean, because I don't, I don't
love clicking Lazard because I think, oh, yeah, I hear what
he's like, one of the most useless players in the NFL.
Well, but I also don't like clicking McColl Hardman who I
think Ashley has. He used in this offense?
But I think going to be, he's gonna be part time for sure.
He's gonna be he's gonna be like art with third and 7.
We need a guy to like, do this gadget.
When Robin get us five yards in the second half.
I want to take a deep shop you go have, you know?
Like he does that sometimes really far down field like the
Christian Watson from last year, early, early Christian Watson?
Yeah, first play of the Season. He dropped that long touchdown,
right, that'll be me. Harmon running that cat chat has
this right? Which is that Conklin is the
right guy to battle inoculants the right guy.
Kang considerate guy. Yeah but I hate the brown side
of that to I don't particularly like being in on the Browns.
I didn't either prices. You know.
You know what? Yeah well sighs another one that
I think as an early round guy you can be like he's just gonna
smash. Even if he doesn't have like a
shootout week 17, he's gonna have a 15 Target game.
You can tell yourself that story, I think.
Here's a stack. I'm like purposely going into
drafts, trying to get the New Orleans Saints.
They have this easy ass schedule.
They play 11 Dome games and they play a team that is going to be
unequivocally, have given up by week, 17, in the Tampa Bay
Buccaneers like olave, Derek Carr and it's like car sucks
obviously. But he has he's always he's
patted his Numbers always to, right?
I mean, but you can't take taste them in this.
Yes, you can why Justin? Yeah, yes, you can.
Yes. So left brain injury Miller, and
Derek are together curve. Yeah, he's a ride back with
another, take jajuan, Johnson at the same ATP.
Like they're right next to each other Basin.
No, give me the one Johnson literally in a million years.
You could run a million simulations, he will never have
one game that would match the highest projected taysom game.
Well thank you human, we get the highest the highest protection.
I'm excited for this take but a kind of iconic.
You can use all of Humanity's computing power that we're
currently using to fund, Chad gbt to run as many simulations
as you want. And you could never get a
distribution curve where Juwan Johnson's highest projected
ceiling game. As I ought to say seems hot, it
is true. It is a hundred tasers, just
pulled up, chat, taysom Hill, and it's actually true taysom
had a 40 Burger last year in a year where everyone said, oh,
he's dead, you know, he's only Sean, Toy once we being held
back by Paige, I'm not arguing, Johnson had a multiple touch
down into multiple touchdown games last year.
Like why couldn't in a million simulations?
He couldn't have a for TV game. No, don't buy that.
No we could use. We could mine every last power
giving resource on Earth to try and get jajuan Johnson to that
ceiling. And we could not do it with.
There's none of the power that we could give a Computing
software. Ew of Mainframe to get jajuan
Johnson before touchdown. Yeah.
Sorry that I ran the Sims garage.
I couldn't get him there. I tried.
But I do want to say this. I've never really been a lot of
a guy I think I drafted more lava than anyone.
I got a lot of like, oh no for is 105.
So he's arranged where it's so easy to click him.
He's the last like really comfy Versi.
I loved taking him there. I love chicken.
I haven't did. He was going in the third round
of the big board. I was just hammering him and
even in the late S, I love it. So I like Davis's call.
So about this game where I've got I got as mentioned earlier,
I've gotten a lot of cup. A lot of Tyree teams and I have
a lot of couple off and then I know in my fast, I had two cars
out of my five fast. I took some drawn, I did, take
some taste them late, I took kendre Miller, and who they play
against Roo Tampa. I love, I love God.
Wants price right now, to Salt Lake city, how sick are people
going to be when K Totten get 16?
Check towns in that game. Get some drugs.
And Caden Keaton is gonna run like 75 to 80% route, right?
There's no one else there. He's the There's no one else.
There is the there like talking him off.
Like dude, he's bringing like this veteran.
Leadership to the room. He's a second-year Titans.
He's the veteran leader. Okay.
But you're speaking so hard, speaking of bad as quarterback
Clips run. Last year Point. 84 yd / outrun
like he was bad last year. Yeah, but give me the routes at
18th round. I'm gonna get the routes.
I'm just getting the routes. Like this is my, this is my
Washington Husky and like, you wasn't that great of a prospect
either know, I think you're talking about Godwin and Evans
and then even like, I think Russell gauge is like, when is
the win, is the yearly Russell gauge when is the yearly Russell
gauge pump going to happen, there's always a time where the
market gets irrationally. Exuberant about Russell gauge,
like you can just, you can just set your watch by that.
That's what I tell did. Robert Woods Russell Gage was
mentioned and the comments. So they're the same ilk.
I want to believe in Otten again like, as a husky fan to like the
dude. You look a good song, More year
and then there was a lot of hype around him and College of his
junior or a senior, he didn't do anything.
Like he was just never that good in college.
Yeah, but most tight ends suck and so if I'm getting, I'm
getting a guy who's like, base, basically does not have
competition on a team. That's going to have to pass a
lot and probably check down a lot like I don't know, it seems
pretty there are. There are two tight ends that
feel good to draft to Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews after
that, you can basically say all the rest of them have real
problems. I'm sorry.
Very good addresses around Kyle pits cow.
Bitch is still giving me that doesn't doesn't just left.
Does that feel good? It's actually does feel good to
it. Yes, it feels like it's getting
everything that last year. Like suck, I'm getting it all
back. When I get to take him in the
sixth round, don't come get me wrong.
I'm clicking him. I'm feeling good about it.
But is it really gonna surprise me if racemic math, you know,
out school like, who's the, who's the second item on the
Falcons now? Well racemic.
Jonathan wide receivers and Johnny Smith.
Yeah. Oh my God, I mean Johnny Smith
week 13 targets three receptions 14 yards two touchdowns put
right at me that's happening. Like just I completely forgotten
that just it's happening, right? So his entire stat line for the
Patriots in one game. Is that what you're saying?
I got another take for you guys. I got another good tip for you
guys. Kyle puts his playing receiver
is part of this. Cordarrelle Patterson is the
best last round pick in all of yes.
Yes he is going to play wide receiver.
They did this a lot with him two years ago.
They signed Bijan. Yes, they have Tyler.
I was here. No one wants Patterson because
he's a running back now they like he was always a weapon.
He was never a volume guy. A weapon that they were using
creatively down there. Arthur Smith has liked using him
creatively. There's never two receivers map
Hollis, they have Scott Miller as they're like, third receiver,
they're splitting Cordarrelle, Patterson out into running
backs. That's would be John, the And
he's running posts and he's gonna have it right here next to
No One, the yard and TD get one TV game and be very viable in
yours, you are be built. Colonel Patterson is 32 years
old, I do think that factors in here bit, you can still run
greatest, greatest kick returner in NFL history.
He's fine dudes, because I lied receiver this year as a run.
He's like, he's like I think of him the way you think of like,
we got some of the chat with 26% cordial.
That guy knows what's up or gal? Yeah, he's good pick.
He's it. And the other thing is even if
you think that they're just going to cut him to save cap or
whatever guarantee that dude signs with a team like
immediately. Yeah, although he could
literally just be a kick return or another team like the we're
gonna chat with depth charts helpful here.
What have they done in the last two years to make us?
Think they would cut this player that they like routinely treated
as one of their like two or three.
Most like focal points of their offense when he's healthy, they
coming in with save about three million dollars.
Yeah, he would be he would say He would save them money and
they have to spend on. What?
What are they needed. Yeah.
Why do they need the space? Well, what if, what, if they get
a nail and they need, they need to create some capture him to
take his contract in I mean, that's okay, that's possible.
Although everyone keeps saying that like it just like, we're
like, oh yeah, Tannehill is going to be the quarterback of
the Falcons and like June 5th, dude, 90 98 days away from
kickoff. Yeah, I don't think, yeah, it's
getting very unlikely at this point.
So like what is what's happening with that?
I think there until his actually been a decent fantasy entity
when he's been a starting quarterback before it's Mario De
Ridder, isn't it? I mean, they're going to do the
same thing they would but can ales way better than late-stage
mark. Has Mariota for sure.
But also, I know Semi mobile Jonah weekly ceiling
over the course of his career. He's old enough to be a legit
breakout number why they could actually have some Paris who's
the second wide receiver for Westbrook and Kennedy probably
face design. Somebody Kyle Phillips out of
the slot and then I think they signed someone And who helped
raise more. That's who it is.
Yeah, it's Chris Moore. It's was thinking okay.
Alright I'm I I'm not doing the tail thing, I just come to get
you back in. Burke's Okonkwo, is a pretty
good one too. What about Trevon Wesco and he
is there. It's worse.
It's worse than I could have possibly imagined.
I'm going to say to I'm going to say two players.
One of them is a defensive player for the Titans and one of
them is one of the wide receivers listed on their depth
chart and you have to tell me which is which okay okay.
Okay Zack MacLeod. Or quieres Jackson.
Here's Jackson is a defensive as name then RayRay McCloud was a
receiver will point out the exact McLeod's, the wide
receiver, Zach MacLeod plays linebacker.
All right, I'm gonna do it. One more, one more, okay, Trace
Sean Harrison or Otis Reese. Oh Reese.
Is the receiver. This is a wide receiver named
Otis. Reese is also a linebacker.
We can't win. We can't win games.
The game is rigged. That was amazing.
All right, let's move on to slide 5 expensive Team level
atp's. This is what's of the Jets are
really cheap, I guess because if your how can that be?
Because they're starting their wide receiver to wide receiver
three and tight. End are like free, right?
And pretty decent odds when the Super Bowl.
So and like, this is also a little bit misleading because
mom's and Kelsey are like first and second round picks Roughly.
But, you know, we're here Isis. A 13 round pick, right?
The team, the team that I feel most confident, a stack is not
going to win, best Ball Mania for is the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Absolutely, absolutely. No chance that Calvin Ridley
incursion curve, both payoff like sub 5 percent probability
that feels right to me because both our Target earners, right?
Like both are getting their own volume.
Also, I think Evan engram, really, really pricey for an Me
high volume play. Like, that's how a man like the
dude, the dude had 37 Burger, but other outside of that week
he was just editing room. Like he was, Evan engram every
other week of the Season. Yeah.
And guys, were banged up that week like he's soaked up volume,
he can soak up volume occasionally, but like the
volume just got harder to soak up.
Yeah, he's not a, he's not an earner right.
He's a, he's a compiler. He's a compiler.
Yeah, he's a high-end compiler, I don't get his ATP at All
except people are just won a bet on the Jaguars.
No, I get it. I get it because that range of a
draft where he goes just so dust.
And you want, you know, you want to be taking Jack like you like
what it like also it's like a turn thing.
Like you can take Lawrence and then immediately take Ingram to.
That's also part of it that, right?
That more than anything. I think is really buoys.
A VPS is the ability to complete the stack with in like six or
seven pics of each other, But so yeah, I was thinking about this
as I was, you know, kind of familiarizing myself with the
atp's. And I've heard Pat you say this
as well but you are also saying the core little bit early on
these like super stacks and stuff.
Like are that many people thinking of these Stacks as much
as we think they are teammates tax. 100 percent, I think so
when a teammate stuff yeah. But what I'm what I meant more
is that like I think most people aren't really thoughtfully
correlating week 17. Well and maybe they are right
now, but this is a big tournament.
And so if you thoughtfully correlate week 17 on your team
that you're drafting in June, hopefully that teams competing
against a bunch of teams in week 15 and 16 that were drafted
later on, you know, so I still think your each day.
I still think it provides a pretty big Edge.
For, and obviously, you put this ago, portal helps in week, 17?
Yeah, you get through, you get through Not even a quarter
filled. How big is?
How filled I think? That's right.
It's like 15% right now. Yeah, yeah, I never looked at
it. I was like I thought it was a
little bit more feel probably and mostly filling.
Yeah, I think it's filling faster, just neither here nor
there but I think it's filling faster than they kind of wanted
it to be and I think that's why they keep launching the
secondary things. I think that's why you're
getting like the puppy to on May 30th is because I think they
were like we don't really want it to be 15% full on June 1st or
That is too full. Yeah.
But how many people like have is it?
Because people are just firing at it right now and they're
going to use up all their bullets or is right?
There's something to be said about 150 bullets and a lot of
people are using a lot of, ya know.
I think I think it's that I've honestly it's like people like
me where it's like if I if I roast all my bullets out, you
know, my bullets are done by August 1st.
I'm probably going to be less incentivized to get on the app
every day and do. Puppies or pick them or whatever
like they want that. I think they would prefer people
to just be on the app and single day.
That's fair. I already feel that I did a lot.
I did a lot more puppies and I did more Chow Chows and I intend
to thinking I'm gonna have the rest of the summer to make more
trips to Oregon and do more ppm's like I want to get this
earlier Davis. You said, when you do five, you
do for puppies in one, BDM of the five fast.
I did it for puppies. One BBM and of the slows I did.
I think I still have more puppies.
Obviously they're cheaper to so it's easy to just fire.
A bunch of them. I think I have like I've more
than ten bbm's going. I think I have like 12 or
something and then closer to 20. Papi.
That's how, that's how God intended it question here.
William Jones asking if we talked about which atp's are the
most distorted by stacking, which is we kind of have an I
guess and this would be kind of a interesting part of the show
to do that because we got the cheap atp's but the expensive 80
pieces where you would probably see the distortion.
I mean last year I what was it last year?
It was who did the 49ers play in week 17 last year 49ers played
the Raiders. Yeah.
D, Bo Adams. That's that's, that's not it.
It's one year. One year it was DJ more was tied
to whoever was going first overall and he would just would
not budge from this spot. I remember that.
Christian McCaffrey was what was 101 and it was the two three.
Turn, wasn't it? Yeah.
DJ what was that? Was that.
Was that two years ago though? Probably two years ago because
they? So the Saints play the Panthers
in 2021. Well, I think it was Panthers
Panthers, it was McCaffrey and DJ more Wait.
No, that's anywhere. That's why my that's why my
brain is breaking. That's what it is.
Yes, Gretchen's, right? It's because there was famine
Panthers Panthers. See what what?
Oh, I mean, I think Lamar and Mark Andrews are are pretty
tight in there together. Like there's adult those are
good atp's. I don't think that's at a store.
Well, we're right. But we're saying we're saying,
oh well fair enough but I like Alomar fall I think is
impossible because the Andrews team is taking them or when he's
there. 100% of the time, I think Kirk is pretty, I think Kirk is
pretty distorted. I would, I would take Pittman
Godwin and But are you in Lockett?
I think all ahead of him. Maybe, maybe that's just me
though. No, I think you're right.
I don't have to cook for you. I've, I don't like Kirk all that
much but I will take him there because it's like I don't think
I've taken them yet but Kirk goes 49 and then Lawrence is the
backstop in the next round or if he falls right.
Well, so one thing that I'll do is I'll take DJ more at the end
of the fourth and hope to get Fields coming back.
And if he doesn't get Fields, if like, it feels doesn't come
back, right? Yeah, that means okay, if I've
done that it's it's usually because I have burrow for cover
and the chase guy is behind me like I'm other 103 of the 124.
So I've got chased their Mahomes is already gone, maybe one of
the early quarterbacks gone. So I'm like there's only one
other non Borough guy who needs a quarterback.
So it's comes down to whether or not, he takes naked Fields.
If he takes naked Fields, you can then if Lawrence Falls all
the way back to you. At the end of the sixth, you
can. Push him around the corner again
and get right. Really late.
Seventh round. Lawrence it allows you to take
your pick of the wide receiver in the sixth and so that's one
reason I've taken Kirk. I've I've gone more sniped on
fields. Take Kirk to set myself up to
push for late 7th, round Lawrence not leak, seventh
round, sorry early, seventh round Lawrence and basically
make those quarterback drafters on the turn, pay for having a
quarterback and not being able to scoop Lawrence.
It's worked. It worked once and it was pretty
good rui. That's it.
I mean we haven't talked about that yet at all this year, but
like I do think buying for talks about this is just like when you
when there's a 10% chance of the guy, you need to make it back to
you at your next pick. Deferring on that more often
than not just to try and get the Giga team to try and get the
super team where you've got, you know, for outrageous, ATV values
all together on the same team or whatever.
I didn't do it. That's plus EV to try to try to
smash the draft. I think it is, I think plus EV,
and I think it's, especially, plus EV when you have a recent,
when you can see, say we're so late here.
That Sam's actually George things are just on schedule
here. Two hours.
Yeah, we got that. We got the /.
Please help us. Let us we're talking about
trying to push your quarterback. Picks the one.
We Like one reason to push a quarterback picks is if you can
see on the turn all these guys have quarterbacks and taking the
quarterback here would be a bad pick for them because then you
get the least if they snipe you. You're like at least like well
this team is probably less competitive.
Now, Right. Yeah.
All right. Let's move on to the next chart
and Sam talk us through it. Yeah, cheap Teams Arizona
obviously gets tanked with Hopkins being released so
they're way cheaper. Now I'm not I haven't called me
in the show. So apologies about rehashing old
debates, but curious your thoughts on Rondell like now.
Here talked about Rondell, we did you talk to okay?
Patriots Patriot stack still, the absolute dirt.
Cheapest. I think we've talked that one
and we're starting to get know. We're starting to get news on
this though. That people are starting to
realize that the sticky Hunter Henry atp's need to be flipped
blobs anywhere like like get sticky sticky.
There was thormann tweeted this yesterday or maybe two days ago,
that is a lot of silver. Yeah, he's practicing.
He's in the wide receiver room so like Hunter Henry exactly.
He said, this is a tweet and he's right, that's a Good
argument for taking on Trinity price.
I think it's also an argument from Dissidia price.
I think they're both really good.
You still getting tight end up side really late.
And either case I think you can take either of them I think.
Yeah, wide receiver. That's just like an awesome
knocks thing to a degree. I did not not really just like
it off knock snake but I think about 400 needs.
Yeah. Hunter Henry needs to come up
but yeah, I agree with you guys. I think a sick.
He's like fine worried, like if he's playing wide receiver and
you know, even if he's like a 50% snap player and play Mostly
slot wide receiver. You could get what 550 yards and
six touchdowns or something like that's fine.
And the 17th round him Henry Thornton and Mac are all super
cheesy. I don't want to take Juju.
I want to Stack that came through, those four in the last
three rounds is the biggest Edge invest ball right now that the
Patriots were a top five offense and DV away two years ago,
didn't have an offensive coordinator last year and then
have an offensive coordinator. Honestly might be one of.
Yeah, I think it, it might actually might be the biggest
And I just, all right now, man, talking through this.
Like if you're sick, he's really going to play wide receiver.
If you're gonna be like a three tight end, build late-round you
could do, I bet the kiseki Henry, Mac stack double stack is
super differentiated. You get two different tight
ends, if they really do play different positions.
Like, you know, you're double Stacks with the wide receiver
and a tight end, but you get tight in eligibility from both.
It's kind of a fun. I'm gonna do that at some point.
I've been taking a lot of New England, like Last three picks
doing like Thornton Henry, Mac, whatever.
But yeah, I guess the question for you guys is like And it'll
build where you need a third quarterback.
I guess I get taking Mac Jones but I guess I questions.
Sometimes in the round 18 pick, like if I have five Scoops,
three Patriots for cheap already, like, do I really need
the Mac Jones piece of it, or should I just stack the past
without I doubt him that? Yeah.
What are your other court? Like, if you have Herbert and
Geno Smith, I would say don't what, what does Matt Jones do
for this team? Yeah, that's honestly if Jones
is bad. There's some Loki.
Bailey zap. Be risk, right?
Like that's probably not being discussed know.
It's heike if Maxie Jones is bad, but the thesis were saying,
is that Mac Jones was actually always fine and it was the
Patriots organizations fault for not paying sure for an offensive
coordinator. And so having that contract to
do the, Oh, you mean, yeah, having a contractor come in and,
like, restructure, the office has some aperture.
Should could do that, you know, I don't know.
Yeah, I mean, because the main reason that like, there's this
Mac, but if he's like a genius, what if he's like, a really
Interior design where he is. So that's the thing about math.
Patricia is actually like a real life like 160 IQ genius.
That is a writ. That's a real interior design at
everything at everything. He's like a not often actually
happens. Of course, not offense, though.
My football coach, I mean, okay, to be fair, I heard this from
Redmond and grubman, he might not be, he might not be 100% on
bias when it comes out and go maitreya.
No, no, I am 100%. Leaving every word won't run
missing. Well, the Contracting thing is
true. The Contracting.
That is on the record, right? That's real that you can find.
That's real. You can find.
Yeah, that's real. What about, what about the
Carolina Panthers and the Houston Texans in the famous
words of David kitchen? We just don't know, like, if
Bryce young if Bryce young and because it's it's like you
cannot tell yourself a story about the Buccaneers offense
improving with these quarterbacks.
You can't really tell yourself a story about will love us or at
least, I can't can't really tell yourself as long story.
What's wrong with the box? They're not going to improve but
they could still be a very viable offense.
It should be bottom. Five, I don't think anyone is
there. They two more passes.
Faster than like, any team ever? Yeah, I don't think of it.
That's it, that's it obviously is, but why are they bottom-5
the team that did that last year as bottom?
Like, what if they're just middle of the pack and past
volume and they have good receivers like what's wrong with
that? So I like Godwin and Evans but
after that I don't know. Kate.
Okay, Tottenham 18th that seems fine to me too but Sam Soon.
Yeah, I was touting. They were mostly be some
Washington Huskies. Dad's get out of here.
But I'm going to Davis on Carolina and Houston mostly
because like, okay, we've seen, we've seen Baker, I think week.
Okay maybe baker's fine. Like I guess you can tell a
story where Baker's like a League average quarterback this
year. Sure, maybe Tampa Bay's
undervalued but like couldn't Stroud and Bryce young be like
really good. Passers like it's all likely
it's not the base case scenario but like number one and number
two overall picks like I get their offensive weapons or
pretty bad. But like these guys could just
be really good, right? And I've been buying a lot.
We just don't know, Sam. We just we just don't know,
right? Put it on a throw pillow.
We just don't know. I-i've with, with Houston
specifically, I'm buying it because I think Stroud might run
a little bit Bryce young. I don't think he's going to run
at all. I think the first time an NFL
linebacker hits him, I'm worried that I'm hoping that Carolina
has really gonna run around, he's gonna yes round, he's gonna
run around, I don't think he's gonna run forward four yards
right? But I think Stroud might I think
shroud could run, I think Stroud could do a jobber 04:00, rushing
yards, three rushing touchdowns. Can we can we Just quick
tangent, two hours, and seven minutes into the show.
There's, you know, it's very exclusive tree that David
kitchen has in terms of, you know, I've tried to get in the
trades and you can't you can't. He won't let anyone in the tree.
It's very exclusive in terms of the tree of which analysts have
come from David kitchen. Sure.
What, in terms of that the Lexicon that we now use in the
fantasy landscape, underrated tree, David kitchen here with
live a little, and we just don't know, we just don't know.
We just don't know being the the phrases of each Summer of the
last two years. I mean we just don't know is so
good because it's actually it's even less.
It has less effort behind it than live a little.
Like, at least there's a message in live a little, you know, like
live a little is like, well, if you want to think about it, from
a game theory since you can be like, well, if all these other
nerds are drafting off of ADP, maybe there is some marginal
Edge and just like, taking huge stances but we just don't know
is no effort. It's Nihilism.
It's just it's just it's like I'm going to click this button
because we just don't know but it's if I'm just saying I
don't know, then there's so much easier and any indication he's
gonna nail it. Okay.
All right let's let's let's move on.
Let's get another slide. Yeah.
Take as yeah, we need to be by the.
Yes. All right, let's skip that let's
just talk through this quickly. There's nothing that's changed
but like to say I think that the one interesting here thing here
to point out actually is the quarterback atp's or like slowly
and obviously I assume you guys talked about this but they're
slowly creeping back. Birds twenty twenty two atp's.
Now, there's still this chart here showing average of
quarterback ones, that are going around, pick 60.
Now, if you just take the top 12 quarterbacks on average last
year, that was closer to 65. So there still is a gap compared
to last year. The elite quarterback still are
more expensive but it's slowly kind of approaching what we saw
last year, which I think is interesting.
I don't think it'll get all the way there, but I think if you
took the approach of like, Hey, I'm gonna like fade Elite
quarterback early in the season and wait for them to get
cheaper. I think there's some truth to
that actually happening. Yeah, figure I think you're
gonna get there on that. Yeah.
But unless you guys have something else to talk through
here, I think let's just do the best values and wrapped.
All right now let's do it. Oh my God.
How can we even how can we even get?
We talked so much good information they show.
How can we even get to the best value?
Yeah, there's so many values. Anybody want to kick things off,
I'll go with the gross one. I'll go to Brooklyn because I
think I'm not even sure that I can.
I'm gonna have to like negotiate with you about starting a teepee
because I would like to start a starting ATP of around 500 for
this one since he was never like never selected but I did a pod
with yes. What if you will?
That's my negotiating Point. All I'm willing to come down but
the I did a pod with Davis and he pointed out.
Little little thing, we'd memory told, is that Chiron.
Williams was talked up as a co-starter with Cam Akers to
begin last year. Then he got hurt.
Yeah, he had a high ankle sprain, was not good.
And we were like we then he drives a Kevin's.
There's like it's safe to forget about this guy forever.
There are reports that they are splitting.
He is splitting reps with the ones with Cam Akers right now,
and OTAs. And this is not a, he's a
co-starter with Cam Akers. It's a we may be getting ahead
of ourselves with who the number two is on the Rams.
They seem to really like Karen Williams.
Yeah. And it's like he might be,
they're not, he's not good. Well, he might not be good, but
it's kiss cam Akers. Good.
Is is some igp Ryan good? Is, if you get a clear number
two, okay and the fellow athlete.
He's at can't make her some monster appear on.
Are better athletes, right? Okay.
Yeah. Currents at Aaron's a terrible
athlete although absolutely gentle with it.
Yeah. But he was - I just got an
aspirin. I just got an FYI.
It's your pick notification crach.
Just letting you know. I said it's gross but it's a
play that we get closing on value based on new.
It's we just hear the drumbeat of he's the number two, he's the
number two and if he's the number two, he's very much more
like the 15th or 16th grow, but are you actually taking him out
Pat because of the risk of dead roster spot like are you
advocating for taking him now or you just saying, you think I'm
saying, put them on your radar. I've taken him.
I think I've taken them once just to get a little fun.
We're a team that I was like, I need a sixth or seventh running
back and I just wanted a little more and I've taken, I think I'm
drafting you're saying no one had ever taken him and you've
taken of one. So he's now by taking them once
on Underdog in once on DraftKings and I think I think
he's I think he's think it's a really good take on DraftKings.
Yeah. Good because you get to that
point and the 20th round and you're like I just need to be
taking guys don't get drafted every single time.
I feel like there's a lot of running backs.
I would rather do that with than have.
I used Greg Dortch in this exercise already say I'm
holding. So I don't think you used to to
but I don't think you still did. I did use to to and I'm going to
be right about that. People are going to people are
going to recognize once that High Point clip really starts
going viral. It's definitely.
I'm aware world since this is High Point at like 15 feet 8
inches tall his yes he's clearly.
Of this High Point Donna. Doesn't like it is actually high
five. I'm going to do, I'm going to do
Dortch. I mean, I just think I just
think it's one. It's a pretty good summary of
the show, but to it's like you just you just see it, right?
You just the, the Cardinals are just an absolute train wreck.
Dortch is like the only active guy every single week, it just,
it's all, it's all laid out right there.
Maybe I'll become a Michael Wilson, bro, maybe.
But right now, I'm a torch, bro. She's really similar to the pic.
I tried to make earlier with Last time I was on with Ty
Chandler and because of the idea that like Cooks, give a Cook's
going to be cut Madison's already Rising but the cheaper
version like the one who's going to be the backup at that point
isn't Rising. But we just saw Arundel Moors at
one of the highest. Yeah, we've got, we've got one
down. So we've got Rondell up by a
billion. Those guys are rising, but those
like flop leg on the lake, the Flyers that those guys haven't
come up a few rounds. Yeah, I like I'm gonna demand
that that Davis, put a little respect on Rondell Morris named
after he touted 22. Well, and Greg door Chu is also
57. Mm, I think my favorite is on
every service T. This offseason is just every
short, dude. Right?
Deuce deuce, except Rod. No more.
Except I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna recant, I'm
gonna recant. We're in, we're in on Rondo.
All right, a horse. He's the one short dude.
Who's actually a beast, like it's super good athlete for
three speed squats after I've come around on Ron Vale, if you
actually look at and I think either Marquis Azure Hopkins was
out for like all of these games. But if you look at a snap rates
last year you was playing like a lot of like I haven't played
out. It's not like he was playing a
lot of outdoor snaps so I I've come around on the upside of
Rondell Cal. He played a billion snaps.
But are we concerned that Greg torch has been more effective
per Target in his career as like an undrafted free agent?
Who's Tyler. Can't see.
Rondo more. They're both too short.
But he's You don't think deal torches smaller, who is their
quarterback? Isn't called McCoy coming back
from an old dude. They're gonna, they're gonna
start Clayton. Dude.
I'm telling you like, Carson. It's going to Carson Wentz.
Oh, well, I mean, but that's probably too obvious.
So I'm going to take quarter all Patterson because I'm going to
be talking about how Coral Patterson Is gonna be the wide
receiver to this year for the next like you we do that dude.
Easy picking the 18th round, he should be going at least two
rounds, higher least. I like that.
Yeah. Who else are they gonna?
I mean, seriously, though, he's at least going to play a lot of
slot Wide Receiver, right? Yeah.
They've always viewed him as a weapon.
He's, I've been back to the year, he broke out.
I was writing about and signals into some most proud about that
year because a lot of people were just looking at his like
Snap rates and stuff when he started to have his first good
games for, like he's role isn't justifying the scoring.
I was like dude they're seeing him as one of their basically
two weapons. Cow pits was rookie year.
Was the other one like Mike Davis isn't that guy like they
just seem as a weapon. They're going to Use him in
certain packages are going to use.
They're going to use me as much as they can use him, but they
see him as somebody who's versatile.
They were splitting out why they were using month, post patterns.
He got like are yards, he got screen passes, he got Rush
attempts. He's not going to be him like a
heavily used running back when Bijan and Algeria both there,
but they will give him some carries.
I think, I think he's gonna get more carries and people realize
it's a little bit annoying. Honestly, for the ceiling for
Bijan and Algeria. In my opinion, I'm a little
concerned because he's gonna get like six carries a game probably
Patterson. And then probably run routes
outside like more than people realize.
Okay, I honestly think there's a spike week, 40 R&B teens,
especially like, I think he's such an easy 18th round pick we
Pat. We've talked about this, some of
the dress, we've done. Like, who were the one who makes
you want to take back there? I've talked up to Minnesota,
Vikings, running back to Patterson's.
The one that when I was doing some fast drafts, I just loved
adding him at the very end, I just think like with for my
sixth running back, makes a lot of sense.
He will be. Yeah, I mean he's such a good
kick returner. He's I think I'm probably
unlikely to be cut even though he's old.
Yeah, beautiful. I'll give mine quickly.
I don't think anyone's taking this on the show yet, I could be
wrong but I do not understand why.
Matt Stafford's atp's still 160 overall crane crane took
Stafford once I think, I'm not sure if I did or not.
We're all in agreement though. We all like stopping it.
If you've already taken him, this won't count towards the
game. But let me let me just give the
pitch anyways. He's Going at 160 overall behind
Kyler Murray. Who's gonna want, missed half
the season behind Jordan. Love for God, knows what reason
behind Eric Carr. Like, I mean, what's the
difference between Matt Stafford and like, Jared Goff Aaron
Rodgers. That's honestly, the veteran
quarterbacks pocket. Passers those guys are going,
40, picks higher, and probably the bigger companies dealing in
Rogers. Yeah, I think so.
I mean, look two years ago, Stafford, through for nearly
5,000 yards, 40 touchdowns, I think people are just completely
ignoring that and I think, you know, some of the reason he was
so depressed, early on was this retirement risk, he's practicing
fully at OTAs now like guys, he's the retirement risk is like
dead for him at this point. So I think it's a great point
though, because that's what happens with like a boring
player, his ATP gets set in stone for something stupid like
that, like he might retire or not necessarily stupid in
February, but it never adjusts when you never recovers.
Yeah. Because he's not exciting.
So he's never going to Rock It Up boards, right?
Yeah, but he's just Ennis price. Now, he's It's a good pic.
Yeah, he's Miss price and I think the fact that like cop is
really the only guy that's exciting to stack.
Em with means is ATP is probably going to stay depressed for a
while but like man, when I'm like box out at quarterback, the
Stafford van Jefferson Tyler higbee, you know, throat 22 at
then there, if you're Davis, that's like a really fun
backdoor stack that I think in payoff so yep.
Wait, who did you say? Just that come with that?
A nice feature in Jefferson. I said, no, I said then I said
van, I thought you, I thought you were on my team.
It didn't even mention van because that would have been
great but I missed it my bad. Yeah, no reason to mention van.
Thanks. Anyways, I gotta just like any
golf today. His wide receiver to When I was
on the airplane last week's show and you were touting Koenig all
day, and there was nothing I could do to stop it.
Those, those low point for me, Kenny Galilee Revenge game the
Giants true week. 17, let's close this down.
Anyone, anyone have anything they want to share for what's
coming up this week? I think I, you know, if you're
listening to this, show your two hours, 20 minutes in.
Look, if you made it 2 hours and 20 minutes in and you don't know
where to find us on. Better than honestly got help
you. I will.
Yeah, I had an announcement today on legendary upside that I
just had a draft King special ranking.
So if you want to use the the rankings over on DraftKings, you
can now do that. Legendary of said.com.
Go, download and upload them all that.
Good stuff, can't wait. Love it.
We will see you guys next week.