Good morning from cold but sunny Buffalo on this 2025 tax day.
I'm Mike Shope. Our heroes, Jacob Patton Davis
will join me in a moment. First, a shout out to our
excellent, great colleague Zach. He's tied up with a family
thing, does the open and the different slides.
Best wishes and good health to him and his wife Callie and
their family. Round one of the NFL draft is 9
days out. We'll check some mock drafts
from a few prominent analysts today and see if we like their
predictions, not only for their chances of being right, but how
it would help us from a fantasy perspective.
Also today, Jacobs, last week's prescient Tyree kill take.
And what is a boring player it is Jackie Robinson Day, April
15th 252025 ADP chasing with Pat, Jacob and Davis.
I'm Mike. Let's go in Underdog.
Best ball. ADP is set by two separate yet
equally important groups. Streamers that set the market
and the slappies that chase it. These are their stories.
May I please start with a Jackie Robinson story you may like?
Of course. So I used to host on my.
Guys been to high school together.
Already. Yeah, that's right.
On my radio station in Buffalo, I used to host a card show on
Saturday mornings called The Hobby and Bulldog.
Pat's a big bulldog guy. My, you know, daily Co host.
I was showing him once how like an auction site worked.
And here was this auction for a 1952 the Seminole top set Jackie
Robinson card graded 8 out of 10.
Like, oh, you know, you know, it's a it's a month long
auction, but I'll just put a bid in here to show you how it
works. A minimum bid and no way it
wins. Then a month goes by and it wins
$8000. I'm invested on this card.
I had no intention of buying, had no money for whatever.
So I get home, tell my wife good thing her mother was here.
That softened the blow. I've just bought an $8000
baseball card. Hi.
So the idea, you know, I put the money together.
I rented a bank safety deposit box for this card.
I had thoughts of like, this will be my son's graduation
present someday. I'm gonna, you know, own this
card and be happy about it. So years go by, we bought a new
house, COVID, COVID happens and card prices spike.
It goes nuts. Like everybody sort of wants to
put their money into something else that can't go out.
So I sell my Robinson for 13 grand.
I think it. Had to.
Had to, you know, I was mixed
about it because it was if you can get 50% profit on anything,
you'll take it. But you know, I was sort of
missing it and six months later it sold for 1/4 million.
I was oh that is not where I thought it was going that so
Mike, I thought you were going to go and now cards are worth
fuck all. So I bought it for $3000 last
week. Here's a 54 But but for real
though. Here's a 54 just you know, I, I,
I saved some of my collection anyway, 54 Robinson, it's OK.
It's still don't you have to take you take the 50% every
time. It's fantasy relatable.
It's fantasy adjacent. You know, you just sometimes you
make a dynasty trade and the guy goes wrong A.
A profitable trade you can never be upset about because it all
comes around in the end. Yeah, it all kind of comes
around. I'm pumped I traded Pukukua for
a 25 second after. Yeah, that was a good decision.
Was a good decision. I I was right about that.
That's a win for me. That's.
The one that I made, that's just math.
That's right. I have one friend who every time
I see him is like, oh, that Robinson.
Like really? You have to do that every time.
Come on, God. But you know anyway.
There's a my dad is a newspaper writer, does feature stories,
and he did one on a guy who had a Wayne Gretzky rookie card and
we had a bunch of rookie cards. But he has this tabletop hockey
collection, which is why my dad did the story.
And on the little tabletop hockey games, he would cut out
player faces and then put them on the little guys for each of
his games. And so he did this with the
Wayne Gretzky rookie card. So he has a Wayne Gretzky rookie
card that would be worth like $1000 but the face is cut out of
the middle and put on the one of the guys at his table top hockey
game. That is.
One of the most painful things I've ever heard in my life.
It's way worse than mine. That that is like, that is like
the guy who you know about every six months, there's this guy in
the Bitcoin community who probably had what is now 1.5
billion of Bitcoin, but he had it on a laptop that he threw
away. And he will routinely, it'll pop
up. He'll be like, oh, I, I paid
everyone to go to this like landfill and go and try and find
this old laptop. Like that's like a similar
thing. Wow, plus Jacob is Canadian so
maybe his dad is too. And that's an Opechee card, not
a Tops card, which is way better.
So. My dad is Canadian, that's true.
Was that where? Where did he grow up or where
was he living at the time of all this?
Winnipeg, MB. I mean Winnipeg talking pre show
about if you meet a girl in Saint Louis.
Seems like Winnipeg has a similar effect on people.
He's there for all 63 years of his life.
I'm still stuck on the Gretzky story that the thing about that
one that really gets me is because it's out of love for for
hockey, You know, he he destroyed.
It's like the Bitcoin 1. You feel bad, but he just like
didn't care about it and he threw it away.
But like the Gretzky, it's like, I love this this game so much
that I'm going to create a realistic table hockey to do it.
I'm going to destroy this car. That's going to be the.
Time I did not go to high school with Jackie Robinson, but I'm
old enough that card collecting. We did write on cards like he I
have a 78. Well, I used to a 78 rows.
My first year collect cards was 78.
I was 6 and he it was a Reds card.
It's kind of iconic. He's got his helmet on sitting
in the sitting in the dugout and he got traded to the Phillies
and then the Expos or whatever and I crossed out Reds.
Not a super valuable card, but I I wrote, you know, in pen Expos
for Reds because like that's what you did.
I mean, I have cards that I've bought that are older than that
where one checklist for some reason somebody wrote on it.
Jimmy is a crook. We don't know who Jimmy is.
We don't know what he did to get that sort of, you know, label
stuck to him. But you know, I've I've got a 57
tops checklist with the writing. Jimmy is a crook on it.
I have some really funny graded cards down here, but I for this
show this is easily the funniest one this.
Is a. This is.
A Michael Gallup PSA 10 rookie card.
I thought I thought this was a really sharp and in fact, I
believe I actually paid to get this one graded.
Michael Gallup rated rookie. Just of all the funny ones that
I have, oh man. I mean, I've got equivalent
baseball ones too, and basketball ones.
But for this show, Michael Gallup is is a pretty funny 1I.
Thought that was a really good buy. 10 chasing. 10 chasing. 10
chasing yeah, people are saying more and more.
Yes, Harold. Harold Fannon coming soon.
Harold Fannon. PSA Pens.
Yeah. Hang on my turn.
You guys probably don't do this. You guys, you guys probably I,
you guys are Jacob, you're too young to for for card collecting
to to be a thing at all. And Korain, you might have you.
Might have. You might.
Have missed it. Yeah, I was going to say that
because you're like four or five years older than me, so you
probably just missed it. I mean I have not shifting.
The cards because like my when like my grandpa just gave me
like 2 big boxes when I was like 4 and I remember like it used to
be like one of my favorite only child activities just like
thumbing through the different cards and looking at like hockey
players stats from 1984 but love something now I've.
Known loved that box, Loved I I have I have that box over in the
other room of the ungraded ones. Just all, just just absolutely
everywhere. I have an 8384 O Peachy hockey
box, 48 packs unopened right behind the the screen.
Have you ever been tempted? Who?
Who's the big Every Day 80? 384.
It's not great. You still want Gretzky, and
they're like 10 Gretzky scar, Gretzky cars, all the leaders
and everything like that. Not Harold Fannin, but this is
my grandpa's brother. Hey grandpa, it's just Cliff
Fannin. Grandpa watches from South
Florida. Now, if he's done.
Put it nice. Or is he?
Wait, wait, is that? I never knew him.
I I can't ask. I don't know who to.
Yes. No, no, that guy's related to
this current Harold Fannon. No, he's related to me.
Doubt it. OK.
Oh. He's my grandfather's brother.
No, I knew. Wait, I knew.
Just my. You're related to Harold Fannon.
That's what that's where I thought.
Maybe I am I. I find out.
How do I find out? How do I find no that I can
attest to? I'm not but.
Is duckfed in a recessive gene. Let's get the generation I
don't. Know we're going to to find out
and. Everybody says they have no
heart out and this is how we spend the 1st.
Ten yeah, this is the we. Well, I think we need to have
heart out. That's the wasn't.
Big Chasing has been putting pressure on me since day one.
Make the show longer so I'm doing my best.
That's true. Actually, we have.
So this is how we stretch it. All right, whoever wants to go
first here the draft is in nine days.
How do we feel? What's the most interesting news
item right now? Today we have something about
the Giants having a second round with Chadur Sainters our.
Purpose is it's what do you actually believe about all this
Chadur stuff? Because now we've got, oh, he
might fall out of the first round.
We've got all the Giants are maybe back in.
The Saints are now looking pretty primed to select a
quarterback at 9. Like, is there smoke?
Is there fire? Is Chadur going to be Geno
Smith? Is Chadur going to be Ryan
Nassib or Sugar going to be Michael Pennix?
You know what? Why I and I don't, I don't know
what to believe. I, I, I at this point, frankly,
there's been too much information about.
To me, the most interesting. Stuff.
Oh, sorry, Pat, you go. I was I think the Saints car
news is the most interesting thing because they they seem to
have been aware of it maybe. And so like the butt like when I
talked to Nick Irisko, like before that news broke, but he
was saying he did not think that they were likely to take Shidor
at 9 and like Nick Underhill didn't think they were going to
do that. But if they like if they knew
that was only a few days before. So it's like if they knew about
it and there was still like no buzz about Shidor, Are they
willing to pass on Shidor at 9? Would be that to me would tell
us a lot if they if they might not have a quarterback this
year. If they don't just scrap him at
9:00. If he's there, then I feel like
anything can happen. Well, I think there's a lot of
things going on. First of all, the Saints thing.
I, I listened to that pod. It was great.
And you know what I got from from his name is Nick, right?
I just call him fantasy law guy but his his like real.
Life. Yeah, the government.
Name is Nick, Yeah. Like he's.
Themed he goes by fantasy law guy so.
You're not fantasy law guy. Wait a minute.
Well, that that's why I want to use.
Nick, I know it's kind of messed up.
Right, I feel, I feel like it's just a little bit rude, you
know, territory, but. US fantasy law.
Yeah, that's true. So seemed like a lot of his take
was based on what Underhill was saying.
And I agree with you. Like the fact that they knew
anyways should be indicative. But if you you know I've been
grinding the Underhill videos every single time he records
recently as I'm sure you are as well.
And his tune is totally flipped like he.
No, I hadn't been running Underhill lately, so.
Like, not necessarily about 9 specifically or about Shudur
specifically, but he seems to very much be of the view now
that things have changed, the rebuild is here and the things
are going to take someone at 9 or 40.
So that might not be Shudder at 9.
It might be it. Well, it might be Dart.
It might be it might be Shug. They apparently really like
Tyler Shug suck. Duck for.
Shuck people. And so it could be, it could be
shug at. 40 it could be. Shark at 40 or it could be
standards or maybe dart at 9, although that seems less likely.
So I didn't get sinks are in the mix.
And the other interesting thing is as we heard sort of more and
more news about Shudder falling, we also seem to get this news
about, you know, Milro, we talked about he's, he's going to
be invited to the draft and Dart is now also invited to and
accept to go to the draft. So, you know, I, I listen to
that show with, with Nick slash fantasy law guy and he seemed to
be of the view that different teams have different QB twos and
that seems to be getting supported.
So it's, it's fascinating where I, I don't think we know anymore
who's going to be QB 2. And it seems like all three of
these guys have a pretty wide range of outcomes, plus I guess
it seems like Tyler Shug for some reason.
The so the thing that that is kind of crazy to me, like, you
know, when you're in a fantasy draft, you're in a basketball
draft and you're like, oh, I have to take this guy on this
team. You can never take this guy.
But you have the, you know, like Josh Palmer's a dude who I don't
take a ton of, but I'm sometimes I'm like, I really need a
veteran receiver. I have Allen, I'm going to take
Josh Palmer. And then you get sniped on Josh
Palmer and it's like the most horrible feeling because you're
like, I don't even want this guy, OK?
I'd never take him, but I needed him here.
And now I'm mad that I didn't get him.
That's got it. The feeling of when the Saints
sit there at 40 and assume they're going to get Tyler Shuck
and that's their whole plan for next year, and then someone else
gets him instead. I mean, like, it's definitely
going to happen. Don't do that, Saints.
It's only going to lead to pain. The Yeah take.
Him at 9:00. The most recent thing I saw on
Tyler Schuck was, I want to say this was Trevor Sikkima, but it
might have been a different draft Nick.
Maybe it was Norris. They tweeted out a highlight of
how good he was at throwaways. They were like, oh, no one, no
one does a no one does a throwaway like Tyler Schuck.
He's he's Aaron Rodgersy with his ability to generate a clean
throwaway. And I was just like, dude,
enough. I I will be so glad to be done
with the Tyler Shock era of of draft analysis.
I just don't buy it. I just, I really don't.
This dude had no draft hype ever and then all of a sudden we get
bored for two months. I I would rather be doing Will
Howard or Kyle McCord stuff. What happened to Quinn?
Yours. Sure, I'd rather be.
Doing it with yours. No, I'm thankful.
I'm honestly thankful we're not doing this with yours.
Yours absolutely stinks. And Chuck at least like didn't
play much 'cause he was hurt all the time.
And it's like he he throws a good ball.
I to me, it's just like the thing about tape is that it
takes a long time to get to it all.
I think, I swear this is what happening with Kyle Williams.
Is it like people were like, oh, yeah, I need to watch him when
they saw Chris Sims and I'm like wide receiver 2, like, right, I
got to now I got to watch. I got to bump Kyle Williams up
on my tape watching list. And then all of a sudden I was
like, yeah, I like Kyle Williams.
I don't think everyone had watched him yet, you know, And I
think Kyle most, most people hadn't seen, like a lot of
people had not looked into Tyler shock because he's like 2526
years old and had been hurt his entire career.
But like, Bruegler was a big fan the whole time.
Yeah, unimpressive stat. Yeah, But like, the the some of
that, no mobility. No mobility.
Otherwise. Why people hadn't watched them
yet? Otherwise, on point.
So, yeah, I, I think there's that story's been consistent
this this offseason as far as like the tape guys go.
Like it seems like most tape guys when they when they got
around to watching them were like, oh, this guy's kind of
good. So as far as like.
A Charizard to Tim Boyle's Charmander.
He's Mike Glennon I think, or something like.
That 17 minutes for the Charizard, and it wasn't even
Davis was. Pretty good.
Is that the right way to do it? I'm really trying to just like,
find my place on this show. I don't know.
I don't really. Know anymore?
Let me so I can find correct. We'll go find a Charizard.
The issue is is that to give Charizard like this category,
the story of player is not does not have a Charizard right like
the the Tyler Shuck, Brandon Weed and Ryan Nassib group of
guys just doesn't there is no Charizard right?
It it kind of is. It Russ Wilson, who's pretty
good for. Them no different it's we're
thinking tall white it's it's tall white guy is it tall white
guy who's at best a date like. Ryan Mallett.
Brock Osweiler got paid. Does he count?
Yes, Brock. Brock.
I mean, Brock played in a Super Bowl, right?
Or a a day of a conference championship game.
He started a wild card game he got.
Reinstalled. He started a wild card game in
the. Was it the Raiders Texans game
where car got corrected against? Do they want to?
Do they want to play? Remember that guy who?
Did Matt Mcgloin that game? No Matt Mcgloin, they started.
Connor Cook. Connor Cook Yes, I knew it.
I knew it. Didn't Mack McGowan get one of
those games though? Yes.
You're not tired. That season, yeah.
Yeah, wow. Raiders.
What about? What about?
Vinny Testaverde. No, totally.
Overall he was like 5-9. He was a little guy.
No, he was a. No, no.
No quarterback went one O 1. No quarterback went one O 1.
Oh, you know what? You know what?
I'm confusing him with another old guy with a funny name.
Doug Flutie. They're these are.
These are not. Yeah, they were very different
quarterbacks. Benita Zverdi was a statue,
especially about the time I was watching him.
He was, he was old. He's like 40.
And he was the ultimate statue. But he.
Wasn't even 59. Doug wasn't even 5.
Wow, we're already here. I mean, who went to high school
with whom? Testaverde was like he was the
one. O 1 Tampa Bay, 1988.
You know what? You know who's you know who's
the Charizard of this, It's Chad Pennington.
It's not. It's a different Jets
quarterback. It's Chad Pennington.
No, but he had, he had a noodle arm.
He he, he wasn't the big one guy.
Harry Collins. Harry Collins is the OH.
Kerry Collins is a good one. Yeah, but he never, he was not a
Charizard. He didn't fully.
Hey, what about Jeff George? And he started in the Super
Bowl. Collins, Kim.
George Kim in the chat is correct.
It's Stafford. Is the Charizard of this
archetype 100%? Yeah, Stafford.
OK, that's a good one all. Right, there we go.
We got there, I mean. Plus I think I think Jeff George
was like 5-1. Jeff George.
Jeff George was tall. In in my mind.
You did not get drafted one O 1 in my day if you were not big
until you had to be big. Until this moment, right now,
Doug Flutie and Vincent Testoverdi were basically the
same guy in my head until until this moment.
Both late, late, late stage Patriots.
Maybe that's you're, you're out here.
I think both. It is that and my only knowledge
of either of them would have come third hand from Bill
Simmons. Page 2 or what?
Section 2. What was it called?
On ESPN any I mean, have you not seen the Doug Flutie Boston
College Hail Mary on like? Of course, of course I have but
like. 86 times. You know that guy's Vincent
Testaverde also, you know. That was by the way, that was
against Kozar and Testaverde. What if it's Kozar it it's in
1984? Oh.
Bad. Also, Vinnie Testaverdi's kid
played in the UFL. Drew Bledsoe's another good one.
CFL. Another giant one O one overall
quarterback. What, what, what are we trying
to figure out? Charizard What does it mean?
Who is who is just charge? Have there any, have there been
any good big armed statue quarterbacks that are like 6-5
And the answer's like that used to be the entire position.
That used to be the whole league, that used to be, that
just used to be the position. Like if you go back to 2000,
you're like. Johnny Unitus.
Yeah. Well, was, was Bledsoe not good?
I mean, how many thousands of yards did he throw for, for, you
know, 1012 years? Was he not?
He got he he's not. He got.
He's not a legend, but he wasn't bad.
He got beaten up by a 6 LB pick. Stinks.
No, he got beaten up by MO Lewis.
MO Lewis, I've heard through Bledsoe, he wins all of those
Super Bowls. The Sam Sherman's DNA, that's
you got to Brady's got to be. What happened here?
Just talking about where he was drafted.
I would like to, yes. This was supposed to be Trevor
Lawrence. Trevor Lawrence was actually
supposed to be the heir to this throne.
Trevor Lawrence was supposed to be Mega Drew Bledsoe.
He was supposed to be Stafford with like better decision
making. Got it.
Yeah, Yeah. I'm still in on Lawrence.
So is Jacob. We're in the Jags.
It's here. Yeah, Lawrence, Lawrence,
Lawrence and Chuck actually maybe are kind of let me pull up
my. Oh God.
Yeah, passing, passing game coordinator Shane Waldron really
inspiring confidence in the in the Jaguars.
Rebuilt a reality in Colin Duvall.
Travis, I'm gonna be in on the Jags, the Duvall and the Shane
Waldgen passing game. We've never really cared about
passing game coordinators. I mean, no, the only time we
care about passing game coordinators is when they become
OCS and we're like, who were they under?
Shane Walton gets hired as someone's OCI will react to that
news. That's.
Bad. I don't know.
Famously, we cared when we realized that Freddie Kitchens
got hired by the Giants. Correct.
Well, that's only because we saw the future, David is that we saw
that he would become the OC in one, one of the only moments
where I was like, Oh my God, I know for a fact what's going to
happen in the NFL. Anyway, did we solve what what
is going on with Chadur? Because I don't think we did.
No, I would just say about the Saints, I would like for them to
be normal one time every year. They're still trading up and
buying and pushing off their debt and whatever else they're
doing. And really, when one thing Jacob
quoted from Underhill. I'm not grinding, so to speak,
Underhill either, but he he did actually, I think literally
right. The rebuild is here.
You said that and I I read that and that meant everything to me
like that meant finally the Saints.
If it's true, if it happens, the Saints are finally.
It's only, it's only here. It's only, it's only here if, if
they like, what if in the second round they're like, oh shit, but
we could do this instead, you know, like like they could, they
could totally change their tune in in the middle of it.
Well, what do they do in round one then?
Like what do they do in round one?
If they were us, what they would be doing already is trading down
and betting on what the markets going to do and then be ready to
trade back up, which A-Team never does.
If I were in their shoes, I would be going to all the scouts
and go on. What quarterback do you like
best? Because we're taking him at
9:00. There's no other option like
you, the salary cap. I think the the rookie contract
stuff is like actually maybe slightly overrated, you know, in
terms of like how much it's it's doing for your franchise, but
not for the Saints. For the Saints, like that would
be almost a get out of jail free card because they're going to
have to eat a bunch of dead cap with car after after this
season. Like you're still going to have
car on the roster and then next year you're going to have to eat
a bunch of dead cap, but you can actually get out of it at least
and spread it out over a couple years.
And then obviously, like that's their comment, the the Saints
are still paying Mike Thomas, which is true.
Like this is not a joke. He's still on the books.
Like the, they're not. For a little bit, not for a
little. Bit he's a mess so.
They're almost out of the Deuce McAllister contract, yeah.
Exactly. He was one of my favorite.
He was one of my. Favorites.
I love Deuce McAllister. He was awesome.
They are unfortunately paying Jonathan Vilma until 2029.
When Saints guys start getting hired by the NFL Network, does
that change the the cap calculation?
Like is it like when you fire a coach and they get hired, you
have to pay him anymore? Like Saints?
And get some salary relief from Darren Sharper, I think.
They they get a compensatory pick.
If you go to work for NFL Network, they get a they.
Get the hardest hit from safety in the league. 6th round.
That's a new thing, though. Just I think there's an
interesting point raise. Are the Saints even rebuildable
within the Pick 9, within Pick 9's Ricky contract leg?
I wonder if the sharp thing to do is don't take the quarterback
and just say, you know what, we are literally going to be the
aints again. We are going to go O and 17 two
or three times. We are going to be so bad and
just like no team. So the Browns kind of did this.
Remember they. That always works.
When teams totally take and bottom out, they just like they
bounce right back. Well, no, no, but I wonder if
one of the things you could do, no, no NFL team has tried this.
What if you traded your, your, your ones now for once, four or
five years from now? So instead of the 9th pick, now
you say we'll take your 2029 first round pick.
So I totally agree. With your plan to like to dose
like Mickey Loomis with like a. Well, that's what I'm saying.
With LSD and and shrooms, like you're asking this man to flip
his worldview, like truly change the way he thinks.
He's gonna hit him. He's.
Been stuck in like I could I just, I'll just add I'll just
sacrifice the future again like oh.
Convince him convince him to go and convince him to go all in on
the Pelicans for four years. He also owns the Pelicans.
So convince him Zion's gonna be healthy.
We're we're gonna get him on you know, he's gonna get on Ozempic.
We're we're gonna have mega Zion.
You you could you could say next four years we're all in.
We'll we'll trade all our future first round picks for the
Pelicans. Kind of have a fun core that got
a good wing defender in Herb Jones.
Just like we're going to be the four seed in the West, we're
going to be all in on the Saints.
My, my, my issue with this is, and I, I agree with Davis, if I
was, if I was the owner of the New Orleans Saints, I would, I
would view it this way. And then like, to me, it's a
waste of the rookie quarterback contract to do it when you're
spending a bunch of money on players who don't play for you
like I would. I would rather just eat it now,
clear the books and then do the rookie quarterback thing when I
can actually take advantage of it instead of just like like
basically drafting shoulder now is like you owe a ton of debt to
1 creditor. So then you go to a lending
company and you're like, I need to take out a loan, but just put
the check in my creditors name, not in my own name.
Like I don't actually get access to the money.
I just have to send it somewhere else.
I don't think that helps anything.
But I agree with Pat in the sense of for Mickey Loomis and
Kellen Moore, like you know, they don't they don't survive
two years of O and. 70 Yeah, they're not going to survive,
that's not. Their that's not their goal.
So if they're the ones still making the decisions and they
have agency and probably their best path to saving their hide
is to take a rookie quarterback, try to build a representative
offense and. I I also think that that the
pushback I would have on on your analogy is like, I don't.
So I don't really have that much faith in chador where that's
where I would agree with your analogy, But the Saints are not
a Patriots 2024 level incubator for a quarterback like this is.
It's not a great setup, but it's it's not a disaster.
They were able to look really frisky at the beginning of last
season. And then, you know, it kind of
with it didn't stick. But this isn't it's not like
there's no pieces here or, you know, they can't protect the
guy. You can put a rookie out there.
He's going to get killed. Like, that's not where the
Saints are somehow. You know, it feels like they
kind of should be. But like, quarterbacks are hard
to get. You have to have like we're
seeing from the Giants, right? Like, you don't know what the
class is going to hold. You don't know if you're
actually going to get the number one pick.
There's a ton of bad teams every year.
And so like tanking, effectively tanking to get the number one
pick is kind of easier said than done.
And you're fighting against these coaches who are going to
try to save their job. They're going to try to win
games even when they're not going to be there the next year.
They'll stick it to you and win and win their final game.
So you don't get the number one pick, which is always
delightful. But I don't know.
I mean, if you have a chance to just take the quarterback at 9,
I think you do it. And then if it's if it's Josh
Rosen's situation, then move on. Again, you know, like draft
another quarterback. But they they need to, for once,
the Saints need to have an undervalued player and a
quarterback on a rookie contract.
Is is kind of the ultimate of that.
Perhaps an interesting comp would be the 17 Bills.
So Sean McDermott gets hired. They they're on a long playoff
drought. Doesn't even feel like the
Saints are on a long playoff drought.
Whatever. Like they're sort of been,
they're kind of trapped in their own division because every year
that division is supposed to be won by somebody winning 10 games
where the Bills had the Brady Patriots.
Anyway, they hire McDermott, they have the 10th overall pick
and he decides or they they don't have their GM yet.
He decides or they that they're going to push it off.
This is what we're saying the Saints should do.
Now it turns out they trade the pick that Kansas City uses on
Patrick Mahomes, but they ride with Tyrod Taylor, you know?
It's all working. They got Keon and tall Kincaid I
mean. They're great.
Hang on, hang on, let me finish. They ride with, they ride with
Taylor. They wanted Mike Glennon, who's
been mentioned here already, and some other guy that Brian Hoyer.
They tried to get those guys. They don't come.
Taylor thinks he's going to free agency.
He doesn't get the deal. He ends up back here.
They're like a -, 50 something point differential.
They make the playoffs and McDermott is made.
Then the next year they push up, they get Alan, they get that
right. And then you know you're you're
going you're a legend at that point.
That's the Saints. Should I think like you're
saying, look at this this way. They don't need shooter Sanders
at 9:00. They just they should be trading
down every time right now. They're going to get one of
these mid quarterbacks. We'll see what happens.
If it doesn't work out fine the next year, they're terrible.
They do it again. They ride with whether it's car
or I don't know. It doesn't have to be him.
But Mike, your story ends with them getting Josh Allen and I, I
think that the the lesson is that you got to find a Josh
Allen. Now maybe.
I mean, I think the strongest piece of this is that like,
Shador is not Josh Allen and I don't think anyone thinks he can
be Josh Allen. Hope for the best.
You what? So then elites draft Jill and
Milro and hope for the best. I just don't get the point of,
yeah, the whole idea of Shador Sanders is like, we're going to
get a $25 million quarterback, but we're going to pay him less
than half of that because he's on a rookie contract.
And then if we surround him with a great scheme and all the great
weapons, he's not going to make mistakes.
He's going to deliver the ball accurately.
He's going to hit the targets, he's going to play on time.
That's like the theoretical idea of Chadur, which to me makes him
the perfect rookie contract quarterback in a great
environment. But I just, I just don't know
how that works when you're saying like, well, we're not
going to get it the advantage of the rookie quarterback contract
because we're paying $50 million a year to retired players.
Who was that? Was that Pickett somebody that
had a good environment, if not great and first round pick And
just like let's just sort of give him time and see what
happens when he was gone. I just, I feel like the bet is
against Sanders no matter what happens if he goes, if he goes
top half of round one. We're wrong about these
quarterbacks all the time. That's right.
I know that Shadour is not a guy that I'm that excited about, but
we are wrong about which ones CJ Stroud with.
Like if CJ Stroud, I mean, if this kind of happened, if this,
if the Texans weren't that weren't didn't sit there and
take him a 2. Like are we like, well, what's
the point of CJ Stroud? Like he's a pocket passer.
He's yeah, he's accurate. You know, it's like kind of
looks true. We didn't have that because they
they didn't, you know, the NFL kept their cool with him.
But I don't know, like if Shadour is really accurate and
is great at reading defenses and the sax issue was a lot more to
do with his offensive line than him like accurate pocket passer
who gets the ball out, you know, is it where it's supposed to go?
Like that's, that's actually pretty powerful.
And his arm talents. His arm talents.
It's it's from an offense that runs like 8 plays.
No, they, they, I mean, they didn't have a run game.
So you get, you got to give them that.
Somebody said trash markings was deadliest, Yeah.
No, I mean the the. Office you mean?
I excuse you mean play variety. Yeah, I, I, I just mean like
they, they don't like, like, I, I, I don't know how pro, like
you talk about reading the defense and stuff.
And it's like, yeah, like there's parts of that that I get
like, I think he's a smart player at times.
But like, they, it's not like it's an NFL offense that they
ran like literally 6 plays like over and over and over again.
So I, I don't know, I, I just feel like it's a lot of like,
what if, what if, what if for a quarterback who has a very
middling arm and doesn't run. It is.
It is a lot of what if, I don't know?
I just like if you find yourself in 30 straights and a
quarterbacks there, I feel like, hey, you know what's bad, You
know what's really valuable. Of course this is a.
This is a good question. Who is the last successful late
faller quarterback? I mean, I think the obvious
example would be Lamar. I think Gino pretty compelling.
I think the answer was Gino was actually good the entire time
and had Gino been in the right incubator, he probably would
have been pretty strong. Those are the two that I can
really think of in terms of fallers.
Wilson. Was he a faller or was he
Russell? He wasn't.
He wasn't, ever. Like him and Dak were never
going to go around 1:00. Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, both great. Jordan Love.
Jordan. Love, Yeah.
Jordan Love. Jordan Love was talked about
like him or him versus Herbert was a big discussion that.
Draft Hertz. Hertz was not a faller.
NFL teams just were not woke. He was never going to go around.
Dude. Yeah, he was.
Never. Aaron Rodgers was famously a
faller. Aaron Rodgers, Big faller.
Big, big faller. From one O 1 to whatever he
went. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
And Jackson Brady. Quinn So I I mean, honestly,
falling quarterbacks are not. Followers are fine.
We're obviously we're pointing
out though, the structural thing here is like Lamar and Hertz and
these dudes and Gino fell 'cause they're black, you know, like,
let's be, let's just be real. Like Lamar fell.
Because only maybe 10 NFL teams could even see the vision with
Lamar, like a lot of like a lot of teams now, you'd get one of
these coaches on truth serum right now and they'd be like,
oh, we have no interest in having Lamar be our quarterback
because he can't do, not because of racism, but just because
they're like, oh, he can't execute my offense right.
He can't. He can't do XY or Z.
And also. Yeah, that that was, you know,
that that same Bills here, Davis, like they moved on from
Taylor and they were just never going to pick Lamar Jackson.
We talked about Alan and Rosen. That's what we talked about
every day around here. Alan and Rosa was never going to
be Jackson. And you know, the Josh's maybe
they made the right choice. Yes.
Pick the right Josh. Passing on Lamar and being right
is that's that's an amazing. It's living well.
Something that's living well. Are you well?
One team dead, Yeah. I I I've got some.
Even the Ravens. Took Hayden Hurst over Lamar,
isn't that? That's right.
That's right, they liked him. That much they took.
They took Hayden Hurst over Marc Andrews.
Yeah, he they, he went two rounds later.
But like you're like, we're imagine being in on Lamar
clearly and then be like, yeah, well, we can get back in.
We got to take a nurse. By the way, Pat, the Saints, the
Saints debate is a little bit like the Browns one we had,
which is how much pain are you up for?
And then you look at sort of the status of the coach and the GM.
That's the thing about the Bills comp that I like for Kellen
Moore, who's got a name in the league.
He can afford a year. Not everybody can, but he he can
spend a year on, you know, bottoming out, whatever it is,
because he'll be back. He's not going to be.
He'll be back next year. Yeah, but I think that you look
at the Titans, I think one of the reasons they're probably
zeroing in on on Cam Ward is that they can't do another.
You know, if they pass on Ward, if they were to take Carter
Hunter and and they just let's say they just run back Will
Levis, they're all getting fired and maybe they don't even make
it through the season. Like it's so you get one.
I, I don't think you're going to Kellen Moore's not going to get
like 3 years of, of horrible play from the Saints.
Like they have to be respectable.
So yeah, I mean he's. His different next job owner.
His next job at worst is offensive coordinator somewhere
else like at at worst. Like one shot as the head coach,
you get like one shot. You know, I, I would be, if I
were in his shoes, I'd be like, I literally just went from
thinking we wouldn't have a quarterback this year, that this
whole thing was going to be an absolute disaster.
And I'm an offensive guy. So if the offense looks like
crap, that's not, we're going to reflect well on me.
Two, I can just sit here and take a quarterback at 9 and I
can get decent play out of him and we'll we'll be building.
For the future, it won't be his fault if whoever the quarterback
is is not supposed to be good, whether that's a rookie or
whether that's someone that's not Derek Carr.
Like it won't. It won't really all be.
It won't be his fault. That's the Dabel debate is like,
well. I mean people went made the
playoffs year 1 though. But that was full luck too, I
mean. My, my push, my slight push back
on that is that if they pass on quarterback this year and we all
agree more comes back next year, then can't you just take the
quarterback year 2 and then the pressure's lower?
You don't have to make the playoffs in year 2.
You just need to show signs and then you get a year 3.
Yes, that's Buffalo. Callahan takes quarterbacks, OK.
Callahan takes Ward this year and they are like not good but
just not a disaster. Then he probably gets here 3.
That's I think that's different because it's 101 pick.
What about the Giants? And the Giants are screwed right
now. Dave Ball Like this is probably
what they, you know, Dave Ball was telling himself like, but
they're not going to get a quarterback unless they take
Shidor at 3:00 or they take Tyler Shuck in the second round.
And that's not going to be enough.
They the the losing is raise the bar on those guys.
So like Tyler Shuck, like a six one season from Tyler Shuck
isn't going to cut it. So yeah, I mean you technically
like the best path, the the highest upside path is to pass
on Shadour and then eventually land a real star quarterback.
But for who, who gets that? Who gets like just Kellen Moore
get that? I, I don't think so in a lot of
cases because he's going to get one shot next year and it's
like, I don't know, he's probably looking like Carson
Beck at pick 5 or something. And I I just think I'd rather.
Well, I think I think we've. Called Jared Nustner.
Yeah, we we've been marked safe, I think from Carson Beck at.
I don't know, man. Here we are talking about Tyler.
He's. Good.
I don't know, dude. He'll, he'll, he's going to be
able to do it. Aaron, Aaron Rodgers.
Aaron Rodgers will need a new job.
Because Jacob is still in. I'm in on Carson Beck.
I think his receivers let him down last.
I'm. Imploring you bro, I need you to
watch the film. What man?
He played great against Tennessee, no?
The Georgia, the Georgia, the the, the game, the game that had
me, the game that had me out on him on Carson Beck was the
Georgia Tech game where Haines King was just beating his ass
down. Not no, no coming back from
that. As you know, Ward was not in
this conversation really at all last year.
He was viewed as like a developmental prospect.
Oh, guy. So we are going to get, we are
going to get someone. QB always bubbles up, he says
while imploring the host to pass on the quarterback to at pick 9.
Like what are you? I'm not to pass on the
quarterback to a pick nine. I'm I'm imploring them to draft
a different quarterback at pick 9.
I would draft Jackson Darter Jalen Millrose pick.
Nine. OK, OK, that's fine.
Why? Why not just pick one of them at
40 then? Well, I don't well dart, I
don't. I don't have the Intel, I'm not
in the league. If they think they'll be there
at 40, then I would, then I would wait, but I wouldn't.
But if if they're not sure, then I think you would be totally
justifiable to take a quarterback with actual physical
tools at pick 9. And again, they'd be moving down
already. I mean, nobody wants to make a
trade. Every team literally has its
number one pick right now, which is rare.
The Saints, if they're us, they should.
This is 20 minutes ago. They should have been moving
down already and be positioned to get one of those guys.
It's not a bad plan. I mean, just do that.
You shouldn't have to do that at 9.
And the Saints are years overdue for making any move that even
resembles that. They're always moving up.
They're always pushing it off. Enough about the Saints.
Right. So I assume, I assume we're
thinking all this discussion that we just had about your
door, it very much applies to the Giants, right.
So you guys aren't saying take, take chador at three.
No, you're not in on Chador at 9:00.
Especially not because the opportunity cost is so high,
like you're getting a potential perennial Pro Bowler at 3:00.
Yeah, that's a decision that like Day Ball and Shane maybe
shouldn't even have. Like they they shouldn't even be
allowed to to to pass. On that's what I think I saw
Brett Coleman tweet this this morning, but like someone quote
tweeted the Oshadur's working out with the Giants thing as
ownership got involved, which is maybe but it.
Should be the opposite it. Should be the opposite, right?
Like they're actually trying to do right by the franchise.
Dabel and Shone are the guys that are incentivized to take
the quarterback even if they shouldn't, and the owner should
be stepping in being like we are not going to give up the chance
to draft a very likely perennial Pro Bowler in Hunter Carter to
take a a quarterback prospect. That's iffy, but it it's.
Maybe it's the other way somehow.
It would be very funny if the Saints still have no interest in
Shidor at 9:00, but now everyone will assume that they do and it
causes the Giants to just take him.
They just mirror panics and was like, we got to get Shidor, we
can't. We can't get him otherwise.
I think this one is the is the Schefter.
It's a Schefter operation. I bet.
I bet every year 9 days before the draft he tweets something
that ends with oh, some new intrigue.
I, I don't know what, what is this meeting going to be?
Is it, is it they're going to subway?
Are they going to work them out again?
What, what even is I bet? I think this is sort of the
machine at work is like giving us something else to talk about,
which, you know, I don't resent that, but I want to be.
By the way, I think Sam Sherman has a new name.
I think he's Eric who just posted in the chat.
Why are people so obsessed with Carter 3 when Parsons was better
and went ten? That is.
That is the most Sam Sherman content.
That that is well, Michael. Parsons went at 10, so he's
he's. We're not bidding like dollars
for, you know, it's like it's depends on who's in the class of
Parsons was in this class. He might be #1.
Also, Parsons should have been number one in most classes that
was. Incorrect, there is also like
Parsons and and Carter are very similar and in certain like the
red flags on Carter. Have wasn't proven over Parsons.
Wasn't the deal with Parsons though that he didn't play like
strict edge in college. Correct.
Wasn't, wasn't. Yeah, so so.
That is, it's. Like it's not 1 to 1 then?
Well, you're seeing that, well, Carter wasn't, wasn't he not a
full time edge until last year. Am I wrong about that?
He's, he's got that same build asked.
Me to evaluate defensive line play.
He's got he's got the same build as Parsons.
And so you kind of need to have the vision for Parsons.
And now the NFL doesn't need a vision.
Anytime the NFL no longer needs a vision and can just copy
someone else's work, they're way more excited about that right
Copycat league. They just go, I'll just put it,
I'll do Parsons, Parsons works, I'll do Parsons.
So now everyone's in, where with Parsons, you have to like, see
it a little. Yeah.
Mock drafts.
So I found a few here, and we'll start with Todd Mcshay, which is
either last night or this morning.
Want to talk about, you know, some of his predictions?
Are they likely to be right? And what would it mean for us in
fantasy Zoom? In on this one.
Todd's with me, he's got the QB two at #9 look at that.
Can I do it? Yeah, I think you have to do it
because it's your screen. Oh boy.
Just like Control Plus or some other browser.
Enlarge it This is. At least you got for one thing,
before I even try this, it's just not faces.
At least it's not faces. Which was hilarious on ship
chasing last week. You guys trying to figure out
who was who? I love that.
I don't know Pat, this might be the best I can do.
All right. I can read it.
All right, Carter even played some inside linebacker.
Look at that. You guys never, you guys never
had me on the soul cast. Were you worried I would know
too much about the the the trenches this year?
You want to come on today all. Right.
Listen here. Here's what you need here from
This is McShane. Focus Podcast.
I resent. I resent that. 25%, that's
called the least. The Saints picking Dart at 9,
which we've kind of hypothesized about.
You've got receivers McMillan at 12 and Golden at 16.
That's it. Not counting Hunter.
That's it from Mcshay in this mock draft.
Gente at six at the Raiders, which is pretty common.
Denver on oh, Marion Hampton. That's it for running backs.
And as far as quarterback goes, you have Cleveland moving up to
get Sanders at 15, the Giants moving up to get Milro, who ends
up quarterback 4 at 24. The numbers aren't that
important. A lot of people have been
talking about the Browns and or the Giants moving back into the
first round to get their quarterback as their second
pick. Dart is the most, you know, wow,
prediction here. Not to go back to the Saints,
but Jake, do you like it? I, I like it.
I mean, I really like Dart, but who, who knows, man?
I mean, it's I think that all all three of the quarterbacks
other than Ward and maybe even to some extent excluding Ward
have like massive glaring what if red flags, right?
You have to be like, what if Shudder's pocket management and
sack tendencies are all his online fault?
And you know, what, if he can play in a real offense And with
Dart, it's like what if he can actually read the field beyond
Lane Kiff and just spoon feeding him wide open reads all the
time. And obviously with mill row, you
know, there's a lot of accuracy concerns.
But I just think ultimately, like, if you I don't know that
any of these guys are like actually round one quarterbacks
in a vacuum. But if you find yourself
organizationally reaching the conclusion that like, we just
have to do it and these are the guys that we have to do it with,
I guess I'm just more willing to make that wager on the guys
where if you, if the what if goes in your favor, you get a
guy that you're hopefully legitimately pumped to pay a
second quarterback contract to. And I, I know it's not that easy
to delineate floor and ceiling, but that's how I would try to
look at it. Like, do I think Jackson Dart is
like a good bat at the 9th overall pick that will work out
a high percentage of the time? I, I don't, but if you come to
the conclusion, like Pat's laid out that you got to do
quarterback, you know, those are the guys you pick.
That would that would be the bet that I would make if I had to
make one. It also is at a point in the
draft where I think the Giants, they really are like Carter.
Carter's a blue chip prospects. You know, it's honestly he's a
blue chip prospect. It's the first time I've like
seen pushback on him in a long time.
Like cuz he's just, you know, he's one of the guys that people
really feel confident about in this class along with Hunter.
And you're passing on one of those guys if you take Shidora
3. But if you get down to 9, you
know, there's like less. And I think I think some of
these guys are also sort starting to shake out too.
Like I've heard a lot of buzz on Jalen Walker recently.
You know, he'll probably be gone.
So there's like there's probably even like a secondary tier
that's like that's already gone as well by the time you get to
to dart or chador or whoever else.
So it's it. I think in this draft class too
the opportunity cost is an insane.
Like the 9th overall pick in this class is worth less than
some other classes is another way to to think about it.
Everybody wants to move down from somewhere around that pick
to what? Pick 70?
Like, is everybody kind of the same?
Everyone wants to move down. Yeah, yeah.
I mean, it's just one of those kind of years, so.
Yeah, 9th overall ain't when it usually is.
Teams would love. To move down, I do just want to
say the Bears are not taking Tyler Warren.
Tight ends, OK, we've got Chicago taking Warren at 10 and
then Jacob's Colts with Loveland at 14.
I've heard some stuff about Cole Comet's season and you look at
his season and the numbers, it was not good.
I, I don't think they'll take Warren at 10, but some people
have asked like, why don't you guys hire and commit?
And that's that, that someone would mock Warren at 10 Is, is
kind of part of the reason. Like I'm not sure he's, he's
locked in. It'll be more probably like I, I
could seem like, yeah, I could see them taking Mason Taylor or,
you know, Elijah Arroyo or something in the second round,
but I, I, I also doubt they take more in a 10.
But there's not. Yeah, kind of a.
Red flag for that fine. And they have bigger, they have
bigger needs like it. What?
I mean, one thing is what if, what if Keenan is just like they
think Keenan is done or they do. He's not willing to resign.
They do. They Why not?
Why not just take Ted? Why not just take Ted if the
whole thing is like we want to run the Ben Johnson, you know,
give Caleb all these good wide receivers Like Ted is like a way
better fit than Warren. Yeah, I agree.
That's fair. I get another reason why the
Saints these teams should be trading down like a month ago
because nobody's going to want they're going to get we're going
to get to that range of the draft and nobody's going to want
to move up. Who are they moving up for?
Like what I? Do think it's interesting that
Speaking of Ted, that the Cowboys have Ted here.
I've followed Mcshay's stuff all offseason.
He does not like Ted. He isn't in the 20s and his big
board and stuff. He he really likes Matthew
Golden. So this would be.
Personal wide receiver one, right?
Yeah, it's his personal wide receiver 1.
So that that's interesting because to me, I'm like, if he
was making a decision I know wouldn't be Ted here.
So you wonder if this is what he you.
Think he knows you, you're saying?
Yeah, you think? He knows but but I doubt.
But I like what drove this pick. It wasn't his own evaluation, so
it's probably probably what he's hearing.
Good point. It's an admission against
interest, as we as we call it in the fantasy law guy world.
Jacob, what is tight end for? Like the Colts, odds for what
position they take first? Is tight end first?
Yeah, yeah, it is. I think that.
So the odd thing is, and I was just doing a lot of nodding
listening to Pat's episode with FLG, it is a little weird to try
to predict the Colts taking players that didn't work out
just based on their history of targeting extremely high Ras
players in the first two rounds. Although WOTSU is a little bit
off brand for them last year. But with Warren and Loveland,
like I I one thing I don't think is going to be a big issue.
I heard FLG talk about level and shoulder.
The Colts don't shy away from medical issues.
They took a lot to last year who had to like medically retire at
one point in his college career. They took Daio Dengbo in the
second round with I think it was like a torn Achilles or torn
ACL. He didn't even play his first
year in the league with the Colts.
So they're they're not going to shy away from medicals, but the
lack of athletic testing I think could be a potential issue.
But I don't know. They're just so they seem very
sat on enough already with it's a tight end committee.
Ballard's talked about it a lot. And you look at the other
positions they would need like they they could use an edge
rusher, but they just drafted one last year in the first
round. And I don't think there's really
a cult player here. Like maybe Shamar Stewart would
be the potential guy they would look at.
But Mike Green has character concerns.
They don't draft players with character concerns.
Same with with James Pierce. There's other guys with some arm
length threshold issues and then the other position I think they
would really like to take if, if they could choose, would be
offensive tackle. So I think maybe Kelvin Banks or
it's tight end. And then the other guy would be
John Campbell, the linebacker, But I know he has some medical
concerns, too. Could they take Loveland over
Warren? What chance would you give that
Loveland is +500 to be the first tight end?
I still love it. I would take Loveland over
Warren. I, I don't think that they will.
I think I don't know. I just based on the people that
are closest to the team's reporting, it seems to be that
they think that they prefer Warren as their Titan 1.
So I think both run. I think if I think if Warren was
gone like he is in this scenario, I think they would
strongly consider Loveland. But I think if both are
available, they would take Warren.
I also think like I think that they should just take a
quarterback if one is there, but I don't think that they actually
will do that. I don't.
Yeah. Omarion Hampton to Denver at 20.
Last thing on the Mcshay mock draft we're looking at here.
That's pretty close to consensus, isn't it?
Yeah, everyone, everyone kind of thinks this is going to happen
if the bears don't take him. Yeah, neck, I think Put put said
he thought 20 was Hampton Ceiling, but the 21 was his
four. The Broncos and the Steelers
should grab them. Not like his his real floor, but
yeah. Our next mod draft will show
different, by the way. That would be like for for sure.
Of all the fantasy eligible players outside of Cam Ward to
the Titans, the the one I'm would be most confident about is
Hampton on the Broncos. That would that would be like
the next most likely. If I had to bet on one player to
team match for my life, I think that'd be my second pick.
And that makes his rookie draft ceiling and floor also very
narrow, like for between the one O 2 and the one O 4 at the
lowest right. And we we'd love that for.
Considerably. By the way.
Basketball. Yeah, I think so.
By the way, again referring to your ship chasing episode from
last week really quick. I've made Davis.
I've made two trades recently, sending away the one O 2 in
rookie drafts. I.
Tried to do it in our league yesterday.
No one. No, no takers.
I did one for the 1:03 and 1:00 for the 101.
May I real quick? Please.
I was offered 103 mid 2nd, 4th for 1/02 and 1/7.
Fine, great. Easily great.
Yeah, great. I traded the 1:02 and a Monroe
St. Brown for the 101, the 1:09 and
pure Sol. Wait, I'll also.
Repeat that one O 2 and almond raw.
Right. For for one O 1, one O 9 and
pure Sol. Would you do that?
I mean, I just wanted to. I've got 10 I think.
That I would. No, yeah, I don't think I would.
Because I I would. Look.
At one O 2 like I as kind of a Washington and then it's one O 2
for one O 9 and pure Sol and I would prefer the one O 2.
OK. I mean, that's definitely fair.
It's way more fair than saying I went to high school with Jackie
Robinson. Way more fair.
That was totally unfair. That was ridiculously unfair.
My father was born after his debut.
I mean, come on here. I don't know what what player
would you guys be trying to get the one O 2 for?
Because like in this league that I'm in with shop, I'm like ready
to win. I'm going to have Bijan Genti,
neighbors, worthy LaPorte, like it's a stud team.
What what what should I be trying to get?
Any that just a a point score? A lot of points I mean.
Hunter is interesting. Well, you're talking about not
rookies, but. Yeah, I I'm trying to.
I'm just like. Like is like Nico.
Collins possible. I offered it.
I offered it for Nico and got denied but that was that.
Was the. That was the line.
I think I would do your trade, Mike that second.
Yeah, because I, I think there's a big, I was looking at the, I
think there's a big enough jump for mom and Rata Genti really,
that I would actually do it. All right, you know, it's always
portfolio based too. I mean, I didn't have any one on
ones. I wanted some Genti and you
know, a lot of my teams, you can relate, are down at running back
and good at receiver. Also in those FFPC rookie
drafts, Warren and Loveland will be, you know, high picks.
It should be you know, it's always fun, but those will be
mid first round picks in if they go in the first round in the
real draft, I would think tight end premium I.
Hope so. I I think that they've been a
bit underrated in some of the mocks that I've seen, but we'll
we'll get into that in in the dynasty St. soon.
All right. One other thing on this mock, we
have Matthew Golden going 16 to the Cardinals, then we have the
Chargers going edge. We have no other wide receivers
in this mock draft, and he goes all the way out to 34.
So you know, Noah, Mecca, Buka, no Luther burden.
Not even Jalen Royals, not even Jalen Royals going in this first
round here, Higgins so. That's pretty.
Yeah. That's pretty interesting.
Yeah. Yeah, Higgins.
Higgins would be a long shot, but those two guys both falling
out. I'm on board. 34 picks is is
kind of interesting. I'm on board.
I could see it. He doesn't have the Titans with
their pick at 33, so that's. You know, maybe, maybe they
would take one of those, but it's still through 34 picks,
only two wide receivers. They're 35 S again.
Those top three teams rotate this muck.
Titans are 35. Those top three teams rotate
round to round 'cause they tied. So Cleveland has the first pick
and then the Giants in Round 2. All right, that's a good note.
All right, let's move to Warren Sharp.
Ryan McChrystal for Warren Sharp's website.
What's interesting here, The same Genti at six to the
Raiders. The same Tyler Warren to the
Bears. Davis also McMillan to Dallas at
12. Then we get to pick 20.
It's not Hampton. It's Trayvion.
Henderson to Denver, Sanders to Pittsburgh, Loveland to the
Chargers. This little hot region here,
Golden to Green Bay at 23, Abuka to the Rams at 26, and there's
Hampton as running back three at pick 29 to Washington.
I mean, I've been on the record that I think the Cowboys are
more likely to take Golden than Tet.
Igbuka does not feel like a Ram's pick to me and I I promise
Matthew Golden will not be a Packer there.
I I ran 10,000 simulate 80,000 simulations and in in zero of
them did Golden doesn't even fit one of the Packer like the
Packers are probably of all 32 NFL teams the most you have to
meet our check Marks and if you don't meet our check marks,
you're off our board are. You saying he doesn't meet their
their 40 threshold because it was fake?
Are you a conspiracy theorist there?
I guess, I guess he would meet that, but he doesn't meet
height, weight, age, college production.
They they don't even the Packers are are sort of aged, let's see,
20. 2 The dress of Jane. Reed He's 21 years old, then
turned 22 to August. Also the Packers.
He doesn't meet their weight threshold.
The the Packers also don't take Big 12 players.
I guess technically he's SEC or whatever, but so maybe not.
Maybe. Maybe because he got the the SEC
season in, I don't know. Yeah, I think he he doesn't
check all the boxes. He checks a lot of them.
Do you guys still do that in your head that that Texas and
Oklahoma are still Big 12 teams even though they're not?
At all. Yeah, to me, they're to me.
They're in the slack bro. Yeah, Oklahoma's in the Big
Eight. Yeah, over here.
Now Loveland. Loveland to Chargers is Loveland
to the Chargers are our generations.
Blake Quorum to the Chargers. Yeah, but Loveland's like better
and it will happen. They need a tight end.
I I think this one's like pretty likely to happen and I I would
love it. Yeah.
Pat's going down before they take Campbell.
With who? And that question is not for me.
It's from from Mike Brabel. MM on the line asked who do we
trade with please? You know what it what it sort of
feels like, maybe this is kind of to be expected, but it sort
of feels like right now, a week away is that somebody could
trade up for Genti. Oh, sure.
Really, somebody could trade up for a running back.
Somebody who would it be like, I don't know who it would be.
It's a big trade. Pretty good it they they're good
at like I feel like with running back now there's kind of like we
understand, we all understand kind of why they're not as
valuable as first round picks and all of it until you actually
like get the chance to do it and you're like about this guy.
I mean, come on, he's worth a first round pick.
So I I think that gentie, I mean he's I understand why everyone's
excited. I'm very excited myself.
I could actually see teams throwing out the rule book on on
him. Dallas.
I just, I don't think Dallas is taking a running back the first
round. I just don't think they value
the position. I just think it's like a lot of
people are like applying logic that existed like several years
ago in a way that we don't to other teams cuz people like to
mock the Cowboys. You know, I think they're
obviously going to take a running back in this draft.
They're they're not going to enter the season just with
Javonte and Miles Sanders after, after what happened last year.
But I don't think it'll be round one.
I I I that's just my lean. I I don't I also I'm not sure
the Raiders take Jetty. I think in my mock I'll probably
do Genti to the Bears. Yeah, maybe it's a little too
easy, but for me the Dallas thing is just like, let's get a
star in here. They're so stale, the Cowboys
and they're so old. Like just wouldn't that be like
whatever, here's a here's a first, whatever, Let's just
let's get somebody in here. We can.
We're the most valuable franchise in sports anyway,
despite we never win. Let's just get somebody you know
great. And all the things you said are
are fair, like what what they think of the position.
But Gente is so superlative that I could see a team being tempted
and Dallas would be a team for me that's easily tempted.
But they shouldn't. I I think they should take Tet
personally, but agreed we'll see.
Trayvion running back 2 Denver Davis You're always like, who
are the classic Broncos prospects?
Is he one? I don't know.
He feels a little less patony to me.
I wonder, though, I, I think I've ultimately landed on this
side of the divide of if this class has 20 running backs, then
why would you take one in the first?
I, I think that that's actually what we're going to see.
We'll see Hampton and Gente go round one and then maybe one or
two of them, like maybe oh, Caleb Johnson or or Judkins ends
up being Round 2. But I think what is going to
happen is because there are 20 dudes and so many of them are of
the similar skill set, the 215 to 225 LB early down guy.
Some of these guys that are, you know, oh shit, we're taking pick
your running back in the top 100 of the big board and he was a
round four pick. And it's not going to be a death
knell. It's just going to be the teams
kind of all have this tacit agreement that, you know, these
guys are all Damien Martinez and Quinshawn Judkins are going to
roughly approximate the same thing on our NFL team.
So why pay through the nose for one of them?
Yeah, I think then I don't know. I just buy the reporting on how
much Denver wants running back. They haven't done anything else
in free agency, like they haven't set up contingencies.
I think they're I think that they're probably taking Hampton
and if Hampton's off the board, I wouldn't be surprised if they
take Henderson. Personally, if I had both on the
board, I would take Henderson like I'm doing my real life
running back rankings. I think he's a second best
running back in this class, but that doesn't seem to be the
commonly shared opinion. So it it would surprise me if
they didn't take if they took Henderson while Hampton was on
the board, but you never know what.
Do you think of Washington as a running back pick in round one?
I think it's pretty plausible, I think probably, I think I would.
I think you've switched these two names.
Is is is I think. What?
We'll actually, yeah. Then then it becomes a lot more.
I think the Broncos take Hampton and I think Washington takes
Henderson. I.
Don't think. Henderson's a nice compliment
though for Robinson too, right? Isn't he Henderson?
I mean, that's not great for him fantasy wise, but that's a
compliment. Brian Robinson's not going away.
They had a quote yesterday about how much they want to fund
running backs to catch passes and how much they value that.
And they didn't name check either of their two running
backs that are currently on the roster.
Henderson is a good pass catcher, not just a good pass
catcher, but he's I think the best pass protecting running
back of the top guys in this class.
And so, yeah, I think it would be a great fit where he can
handle, you know, Robinson could then be like a a complimentary
guy who handles. I don't know, goal lines, really
high volume running back anyway, but you give Henderson all the
pass down work, you give him a majority of the early down
carries and a lot of explosive fun stuff, and Robinson just
kind of takes the boring low calorie work.
Yep. I also think Robinson could just
go away. You know, they they don't really
value him that much. There seems capped a kind of a
rotational roll. He's the kind of drafting him
goes away all the time. No, I don't.
No, I don't even. I don't even know where he goes.
And I drafted a party. I.
Rarely take it. I'm not interested in the guys
who if the draft if the draft with one of the most loaded deep
draft classes at running back in years.
If if they dodge those bullets, we'll go roughly where they're
going now. I, I just didn't like, I mean,
you know, you can exempt the early rounds from that, but like
Robinson's not even going to move up that much.
Maybe moves up a round or something if Fibby dodges a
bullet. But there was no excitement
about him last year or the year before.
And, and he, I think he's in real risk of, of them doing
something like this or second round or third round.
That would all hurt. I cannot tell you that as much
as Lutz didn't like the first mock draft, he also doesn't like
this one either. Mock mock draft.
Review. No fence to Ryan McChrystal but
this mock is pure dog shit. Mock drafting.
It's very easy to say how they're bad.
It it is, it is hard. It it like doing because like I
actually totally get why these teams keep putting Tyler Warren
there. Like, oh, Tyler Warren, everyone
loves him. He's going to be a top ten pick.
Oh well, the bears pick a 10. Like they kind of need a third
pass catcher. They kind they have a creative
play caller. Like I get, I don't think it
happens, but I get why those things happen.
I think mock drafts are tough because when I look at a mock
draft, I basically just go like, correct, correct.
As long as it like literally, I just feel myself like confirming
my priors. And the second I get someone
that doesn't, I'm like, this guy doesn't even follow the draft.
What an idiot. And then obviously like
everything I think is going to get blown up.
I'm totally wrong about half this stuff, but yeah, we're all
probably you got us more confident and it was like you.
Got to set yourself apart. I had.
AI had the right first six picks and I was like, I am a genius,
like I'm going to go 32 for 32. And then it was like
immediately, like mock gets completely derailed.
And it was like, what the fuck is this?
Then Michael Panic. Chapman, I did just say mock
jobs are hard work, but. Yeah, Yeah.
By the way, we on the last one, Sanders, Sanders to Pittsburgh
on that last one. Yeah.
Oh, Sanders to Pittsburgh. Yeah, you didn't like that
though. FLG was was opposed.
Well, is dark is dark gone or is no quarterback too quarterback?
So this one, this one's not a quarterback heavy draft.
We had no mil row. This was 4 quarterbacks going in
the first round. This is 2.
Correct, Correct. Yeah, this is more likely.
Maybe you know what I mean. Likely.
I don't know what's more likely with this, with the scar injury,
it's it's shaking everything up. I don't know what you're
thinking anymore. Here we have PFF, this is Trevor
Sikkima and Dalton Wasserman, I believe.
And so the highlights. Genti.
Sorry, yes, is that right? Genti 6 to the Raiders.
Tyler Warren 7 to The Jets. Sanders 9 to the Saints again.
Then McMillan falls to 17. Ellis picks linebacker.
Safety. We just signed Cam Bynum.
What the fuck is this? Malachi Starks to the Colts.
Sorry to blow past that. I'm doing really doing my.
I'm doing what the commenters are doing.
Just type it in. Yeah, just type it in.
What? Does this guy know?
Yeah. McMillan and Golden back-to-back
1718 Charger Seahawks, Hampton 20 to Denver back to that.
Abuka to the Packers. I don't know how many of Davis's
10,000 simulations might have landed there.
Loveland to the Rams, He probably.
Does fit all their thresholds He.
He fits. He's way more.
Packers even gold.
A Packer player. Yeah, that's.
Interesting. I just I don't want them on the
Rams because Puka and Ibuka would be a lot to sort of have
to say. And the Chiefs trading out of a
first round pick to let to to trade up to take the Oregon
tackle. That is not Chiefs football
Chiefs. Chiefs don't really trade up.
They would be much more likely to trade.
Down Bill's Mafia would like a word.
After last year, the worthy trade was you.
Know a few, but Conner Lee would be would be a Packer or a would
be a chief style tackle to take so good mock.
I did a good mock. Yeah, that guy.
Matthew Matthew Golden, 18 to the Seahawks, so we get 17.
Oh, that's interesting. So the.
Chargers, right? They guess they traded up.
With the Bengals. Logo They traded with the
Bengals. Yeah.
OK. And then the Seahawks come or
stay at 18 and take Golden. It works.
Hampton to the Broncos. Yeah.
The book of the Packers. I yeah, it works.
I've been working on my wide receiver article, hoping to get
the first one out tonight and I think I'm gonna have a book of
wide receiver 3. Yeah, that's, that's, that's
where I'm at too. That's including Hunter at one,
right? Hunters one.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Hunter 1.
I have the. I've been.
I'll also have mine shortly and I have the same top three in the
same order as you. It is including Hunter or not
it's it is. Including Hunter.
Yeah, yeah. Abuka Golden and Burden.
I've been like wrestling with and I've.
I think I'm gonna go Abuka. Golden Burden.
You know, can may I on Golden again?
Like we talked a couple of weeks ago, does he have to be in the
first round? And everybody was like, yes, I
talked to Matt Harman, I mentioned this last week, I
think, and he's like he's a lock right in the Discord.
He's a lock to be a first round pick.
I don't know. We'll get eventually to one more
slide where he's ranked pretty low among wide receivers, isn't
he? You guys, you know, you're the
ball knowers. Isn't Golden the prototype of
the guy you want to avoid? There's a lot of red barracks
for fans. Scott Barrett has been had
picked up this sword and shield. He's just been like arguing
against against everyone. Well the fun thing with with
Scott's is like he doesn't even actually have golden that low.
Like he hasn't ranked wide receiver. 5 wide receiver.
Five, Yeah. Well 4 but he he doesn't count
Hunter in his rankings. So he he has like Hunter is like
in a separate category and then he he ranked him 4, but so it'd
be 5 if he included Hunter because he.
That's defensible, you know, if you had burden over him.
But it's like, so it's like not even that high.
Like it's the same ranking I'm going to have on on golden.
I I have burden at four and golden at 5:00 and it's like,
and I haven't been the same tier.
So it's not like Scott's like trying to like be ridiculous and
he's doesn't haven't like wide receiver 10 or something.
Wait till the next slide. Wait till the next slide.
You'll see that. And it's like, well, The thing
is like he's the guy you want to avoid in the sense of let's
assume he goes somewhere in the teens.
You don't want to draft him as highly as you would draft
average wide receiver going in the teens like you.
You wouldn't want to draft him where Ted's going to go.
And they're probably going to go similarly in the real draft, but
you're not going to have to. You're going to have to draft
him like the 112-2012 O2. That's 100% defensible.
In rookie drafts. The thing?
The one thing with guys like what Steve and Sam are doing in
these rankings and when I'm not doing in my rankings and I'm
pretty sure Pat is the same. It's like when I'm ranking pre
draft, I'm ranking. If you have a rookie draft a
minute after you read my article, this is how I would
draft them today. Yeah, that's.
Right, I'm counting the fact that Golden is probably gonna go
round one and at worst very early Round 2.
I think Sam and Steve are just saying here are my favorite
players. You know, if I was NFL general
manager, here's how I would take them that that's freeing.
So like I included that at the bottom my running back column,
for instance, and I have like Quincheon Junkins, for instance,
like RB8IN in those rankings, but that's not how I would ever
do it in a fantasy draft. I, I would have Golden probably
ranked closer to where these guys have it if I didn't have to
tie myself to where he's going to.
Get drafted, OK? Yeah, but so I, I mostly agree
with that in the way you describe the way I'm ranking it
is exactly right. You know, I'm ranking it for
like actionable, you know, fantasy dynasty, best ball stuff
right now. But also kind of like where I
think they'll be close to ending up.
Like I'm trying to bake in some of the, you know, the the range
of outcomes on where they get drafted because I want these to
live longer than a week. But I also like not including
big parts of the analysis. Like I don't do like tape
predictive tape breakdowns on these guys.
Like I've seen them play, but I don't that's not a part of my
process. So to me, the draft capital,
it's more than just like opportunity.
It's actually a bit of a talent signal.
Like what what does the NFL think of these guys is a huge
part of of stuff that I'm not trying to capture.
Like my bet is basically like some of the tape is already
baked into the draft position and I'm not an expert in it.
So I'm going to be focusing on things that maybe the NF LS not
considering enough and add to the draft capital.
It'll be additive to draft capital.
So in all honesty, I just wouldn't have Golden ranked 8th
like ever because he's just going to get drafted way higher
than Jalen Royals who's got a ton of red flags in his profile
too. Like, I don't know.
Understood it. Matters for talent.
It's the key point is like, there's fantasy analysis,
there's the mock draft trying to predict slots, and there's this.
This is Sam Monson, Steve Palazzolo ranking their favorite
receivers. You guys are right about that.
I just think this is maybe two guys, some reflection on the
NFL, you know, thought process on this and Scott Barrett stuff.
Golden, 7th on Sam's rankings, 8th on Steve's.
Does the league have to like him?
No, right. Does the league have to love him
enough to, you know, tell us what we're all sort of assuming,
which is he's like a top 20 pick and I still have my doubts.
Luther Burden is 3 on each of these guys.
Burden is, you know, such a talent.
Could some team prefer him? Yes, I.
Think people should watch more ball if they think Jalen Royals
is better than Matthew Golden. I'm going to be.
I'm going to be real. Let me, let me be.
That one's a tough one. Let me be the old man.
Crank here.
Golden. Golden was a productive but
injured player at Houston. Then he transferred to the top
five team that played multiple College Football Playoff games
and was like their most effective playmaker,
particularly after Bond. What did he did?
Bond did something to his ankle and he was also, let me let me
Fact Check myself on this, but I'm pretty certain that he was
also a pretty strong returner, which we know that.
Yeah, he was. He was a really good punt
returner and scored two kick return touchdowns his sophomore
season, which is something that we know lens credence to.
That was one of the Percy Harvin big things was Percy Harvin was
like a crazy good returner. That is an old John Moore wrote
of his thing that pun kick returns for wide receivers are
predictive. But basically, look, man, I I
get Higgins and Noel are like fun and they produced and stuff,
but you know, this is this is to me kind of borders on like rage
bait. That's what someone with Jack
called it. Yeah, it's just, it's.
Just it's, it's unserious because it's unserious both in
terms of how NFL teams will view them and it's unserious based on
what they did in high leverage spots.
Matthew Golden got open on 4th and 14 to win his team a College
Football Playoff game, while Jaden Higgins was, you know,
getting down to 218 so he could run a good 40 for the combine.
I just, I just think it's unserious.
Yeah, I mean, golden is not a golden has some real kind of red
flags in his profile. But for sure if you if you zoom
out, it's like. Anybody in this class?
He's a, he's a three-year guy. He's going to get drafted in the
first round. By the way, if we're trying to
predict that at this point, if you just want to try to predict
if you're going to use one source, I would at this point
recommend grinding the mocks, which has, but really only kind
of threw like the first like 50 picks.
But Golden is got an expected draft position of 18.6.
That's five spots behind Ted, but it's ahead of burden.
Burden's at 26.9 at Buca 24.3. He's not like a mortal lock for
the first rounds, but something like this that's this is not
telling us what the league thinks of this.
We have other sources for for right, You know, even if you're
trying to say I want to, I want to try to take the mock draft
universe to help have me tell me what the league is going to do.
There's other ways to do that. And I would I would recommend
grinding the mocks for that exercise.
But yeah, I think go like I'm not even a big golden guy and I
assumed I would have him wide receiver three following the
draft capital. I'm not I'm going to I'm going
to have him behind a Buka, but I am going to have him ahead of
burden because of the draft capital and because I do think
he does a thing. Well, let me let me share this
I'll share this chart, which is going to be in my wide receiver
article because I think let's see, I got to remove this.
My bad. All right, I just realize the.
Dude, the dude on the right didn't rank Igbuka at all.
OK, what I was putting. I'm on the top 10 which that I I
like. Blew my mind, but that's wild.
Which which as a hater I appreciate, But continue Pat.
No, I I need to see this now. So he.
I'm a big I'm I'm a big Sam fan. Jimmy Horn, Junior.
Sure. Totally, dude.
Jimmy Horn Junior. Totally.
Who is Jimmy Horn Junior? He plays for Colorado.
He said Colorado's wide receiver 4.
Can we let how I get their own? Opinions.
Damn. Honestly.
I mean a buka not in your top 10 is an opinion.
I'm not going. To no, I I like, I mean, I think
it was. I'm gonna.
I'm gonna talk. About that I think it's
something that we should flag because it's interesting, but I
appreciate people are trying to do different things with all
this right And I actually really like that we have people in the
space that don't try to herd and they don't incorporate draft
capital and they aren't worried about occasionally looking silly
because like obviously, you know, Aristotle is just clearly
correct like the the wisdom of the of the crowds will always be
on aggregate better than the wisdom of of one individual man,
but not in every single case right That's that has to be
aggregated. So I, I think it's, it does a
service to everybody to have people willing to stand on an
island and and be like, Hey, this is my take.
And that doesn't mean necessarily then you just like
ignore everything else and you're like, I'm willing to bet
at all on this guy who has Mecca Buko wide receiver 11.
But I, I think it's like generally useful if we don't
just get funneled into one specific.
That's right. Thanks.
Amen. You just have to understand the
point of what you're reading, right?
So it's like, if you are, this is just like 2 guys being like,
I watched the tape and I looked at the numbers and these are my
thoughts. And like that is cool, but it's
not necessarily. And I don't think they would say
this is how I would rank everybody to go take him in your
fantasy draft today. Like so it's, it's a different,
it's a totally different objective.
And you have to say about Sam and Steve, like they put in a
lot of work. This is not just somebody
posting a list that they are on, you know, on their podcast hour
and a half a day, so. This I just want to share this
with Golden cuz I do. He's an interesting prospect
where his Yak stuff, he's got 40% of his career Yak came
behind the line of scrimmage and like it accounts for decent
chunk of what he did. And so that's that's actually
like a red flag in my mind as a kind of gadget player, red
flags. And then you look at him
producing Yak actually on downfield targets.
It's not that impressive, but he draws targets downfield.
Like where did he actually produce yards at the top here?
31% on intermediate, 35% on deep targets, 17 to 20 yards a game
on those targets. So he does a thing at the NFL
level that translates. He he can draw targets 10 plus
yards downfield. He doesn't add a ton of yak, at
least he didn't in college. On those targets.
If you want yak, you kind of got to feed him underneath a little
bit more. So it is kind of like a little
bit Jalen royalty in that sense. But I think he can actually add
more in the intermediate in the intermediate area of the field.
The funny thing about gold, like someone called him high floor or
low floor, high ceiling. I think he might be low floor,
kind of middling ceiling. That's that's the my issue with
Golden is that I'm not if. He's not if he's actually not if
he's actually 42940. No, that I I don't think that
the 40. Is no one thinks he.
Plays indicative of ceiling and no one thinks that he plays like
that either, but like to me, the ceiling on him is more.
I mean, this is I think Carmen mentioned Jordan Addison and I
think I've said Emmanuel Sanders before, like it's he's like a
not necessarily like a a you know, Mike Wallace, like I just
run go routes guy, but he's definitely like more of a
secondary wide receiver who wins on like posts and deep crossers
and stuff like that, which is like Jordan Addison valuable to
the NFL. Yeah, exactly like Jordan
Addison like and it's like that's valuable to the NFL.
Like Brandon Cooks is kind of a guy like this, like, and it's
like that's valuable, but I don't think it's that high of a
fantasy ceiling because like, you know, I like really bought
into like Ladd Mcconkey last year.
And part of that was the targets for outrun stuff that you could
translate. But also part of that was like
he won in a way that I think despite people saying he was low
sealing, I think is wrong. Like he consistently just wins
in like the intermediate areas of the field, like in like the
seven to 15 yards, which is like that to me is a really high.
That's how you get 10 catches for 120 yards on loop.
And that's how you become Amanor Cooper Cop Golden's like a
little bit deeper. So he's more of like a four for
80 and one type of guy, which is valuable.
But I, I wonder how valuable. Like I, I feel like the ceiling
on him, if it works out is more like, I don't know, like maybe
it's Crystal Lavey, maybe it's Jordan Addison.
Like it's in. That range, yeah, he's.
Going to be wide receiver 17. So here's Abuka and this is
where I was kind of like, is he low ceiling?
Because like you look at the deep stuff, he's he's not going
to produce deep. His his deep targets were
contested and he didn't produce there.
So like if you're counting on Abuka to win deep, I'm sorry,
but 39% of his career yards, intermediate, 24 yards a game,
he's adding yak on those plays. He's adding yak on short,
intermediate and somewhat behind the line of scrimmage as well.
But you're actually like he's generating yak and he's
generating a ton of targets. Intermediate area of the field
also produces short. I'm like, OK, this guy, like
he's limited in terms of the types of routes.
Also, you look at Matt Harmon's charting, he's he's the third
worst that he's charted so far on 9 routes.
So like it all tells the same story like this dude is not
going to beat you deep, even though he's actually, you know,
had a good 40. Everything lines up here that
that Abuka is not going to, you know, be a a true downfield
playmaker, but he can draw targets consistently,
intermediate area, short area and add after the catch.
There's a lot. There's actually a pretty high
ceiling with a player like that, like if, if you can just
consistently draw targets and you don't just fall down after
and if you're in a good offense, if you have a good quarterback
like that ceiling, like I, I don't need a guy to, I'm not,
who cares what the safeties are doing when I, you know, when I'm
playing fantasy, I don't need to like stretch the field.
I, I just need a guy to catch a bunch of balls and then produce
a bunch of yards on those catches.
And I, I think Ibuka has a ceiling.
That's, that's, that's where I landed after kind of digging
into it. I think he has a higher ceiling.
Than golden. I'll put, I'll, I'll put it on
that. I think it's a higher ceiling
than Matthew Golden. I think at the I know I dropped
out and yeah. Goes for.
Jacob sorry, I was going to say I know I I dropped out for a
second, but did the was the point made about golden 72
percent 10 yards or less? Like are we sure?
First of all, Davis, he's a perfect bill because they don't
throw the ball, you know, past the line of scrimmage.
But also like, who's throwing the ball deep in the NFL?
Like are we going to see? I hope we get back.
I mean, that's, that's, that's so funny because that's kind of
the, the understated element of all of this is like, so much of
this is like, well, are we going back to the dark ages of like,
can we get some fun deep throws? Like, because Golden is a little
bit less valuable if he is just going to be asked to be this
like ground bound like Fancy 1 Dale Robinson or whatever you
know well. I mean, that's just The thing is
like what a what an NFL ceiling is and what a fantasy ceiling is
is very different. Like I think when in NFL circles
they talk about Ibuka as a lower ceiling player because what he
does is not quite as valuable to an NFL team.
Like it's easier to find those completions from inferior
players. But you know, for our purposes,
whatever team he's on, he's going to be the one that's doing
it because he's doing things that maybe don't have a super
high degree of difficulty in an NFL offense.
But the points count all the same.
Golden is is running routes down the field that I think probably
do have a higher degree of difficulty that's more scarce,
that costs more to acquire in free agency.
That makes him maybe a higher stealing debt in the NFL, but
it's not fantasy. So I think when you translate
these two things, things get things get lost.
So I have a I'll have a tier break between them.
I have a Buka tier head and then I have Golden in A in a tier
with burden and I've been very back and forth.
I think I'm going to have burden at four and Golden at 5:00, but
I'm like 7030 on that to be honest.
Golden, I haven't finished Burden's write up, but he scared
me the whole time and and I think he's the least likely to
go first round of all the certainly less likely than
Golden. But I think Ibuka has has a
better chance to go first round too.
And the the NFL cooling on burden definitely worries me.
Like, I mean, he was supposed to like we were supposed to be
talking about like who are the Cowboys taking a 12 Tet or
burden? You know, that's what you were
in Debbie drafted and you had the one O 1.
It was like, do you take you know, do you take burden?
Well, the big three was Jeremiah Smith and then burden and Tet
like those were the guys you're taking at the very top.
So it's it's a big fall. No one has burden in their first
round of those mock drafts. Hopefully.
I'm hoping some team. But a lot of that's off field
stuff, right? Which matters to us too, 'cause.
Like, which actually doesn't make that much sense to me,
'cause like burden was like the hometown kid from Saint Louis
and he stayed at Missouri, even though he could have gotten big
NIL money to go to Alabama or Texas or Notre Dame or wherever.
And he was like, no, like, I want to stay with the guy who
recruited me and stuff. I, I don't know, I, I obviously
am the the burden apologist of, of the ship chasing cinematic
universe and I'm, I'm happy to wear that badge.
I, well, I'd be happy. I'd be happy if the Chiefs took
burden if the Chiefs if the if the Chiefs took burden, smash.
Look out. This is burying the lead.
An hour and 32 minutes in Tyree. Kill Jacob.
I mean, what did you, what did you know?
You know, I've as a, as an officer of the court, I have
great relationships with law enforcement all across Turtle
Island. And, you know, sometimes I just
get certain pieces of Intel that I can't share exactly how I got
them, but it'll allow me to make prescient predictions on on ship
chasing broadcasts. Are we seeing if you guys know,
is he falling? You would think so.
He, he is. No, no, that last year.
What? No, he's not falling price.
I don't get. It at least look the drafts that
I've done since he's gone much higher, he's gone like it's I
don't know why Maybe I'm just in a weird draft with that.
Like I've seen, I've seen him go like 2O2, like I'm telling you,
like 2O2 multiple. Drafts.
I have a theory about this. My theory is that he has so many
different allegations over his career that people didn't
realize that the second piece of news, which was like that this
isn't a problem, was relating to a new allegation.
So they think that like previous allegations were weighting down
his cost and those have now been resolved.
So people are like, oh, this is wheels up for time to kill.
That's my theory. It's.
A theory. I have not seen him fall.
I think we took him Davis on Friday.
We took him in like two O 6 or something, or sorry, three O 6,
three O 6. Yeah, we got him in this in the
third round. Third round.
Come on, come on, you still got to take him.
Thanks. I don't.
Even even like 15% AB risk he he's a pick there.
Are the odds are the odds that he can he's on the on the
Dolphins. Part of Jacob's thing was he
might not even be on the team. Jacob almost always has like a
super well reasoned, thoughtful argument, quotes Greek
philosophers. And then we get to Tyreek at
round 3 and I'm good. No, I don't have to take them.
I just like, I don't, I don't like drafting wide receivers who
are 30 plus who look like they might be getting worse at a
rapid pace. And then you add on legal
problems and, and I, it is, I'm good.
Like I, this was like the Cooper Cup thing last year.
I was like, I wasn't taking him at all in the third round.
And then everybody was like, you're a total lunatic if you
don't take him in the second round.
I was like, well, I wasn't taking him in the third.
So I guess I won't take him in the 2nd.
And we'll, we'll see what happens, you know, and he got an
injury that was totally his fault.
I think that was settled on ship chasing last year so.
Seems reasonable enough. Yeah, I need you to proceed that
settled law. Yeah, great.
Sam Sherman once. Are the odds any different that
he's on Miami today? Jalen Ramsey wants out.
Yeah, the yeah, what's going on in Miami?
Things are. Going well down there.
Apparently the reporting is is that the the Raiders are are in
on on Ramsey. That sounds right.
OK. Yeah, it's a good, good bit for
them. Well, if you missed the big news
earlier, Pat will be appearing on Swellcast today with Davis.
That was that was announced earlier today.
Yeah, that's it. That's in 90 minutes, Pat.
I'll send you the stream. Yard sounds good.
Get your get your offensive lineman.
I don't even have to do any prep, I've been doing so many.
Wow, what a compliment. Back drafts and stuff.
What a compliment. I mean, it won't be best he.
Doesn't even have to prepare for it.
Doesn't even need to. I'm just going to take a quick
nap and then I'll I'll jump on at 90.
Minutes. I don't think they'll be
offended. Jacob, look for me tonight at
Leafs, Sabres. Oh, nice.
Well, the Leafs are playing to to clinch the Atlantic Division
for I think the first time. Well, the first time ever the
Atlantic Division, but the first time that they'll win whatever
division they reside in, I believe since I was like 2 years
old. So big, big night for the for
the Toronto Maple Leafs. Wish them the best, huge and
hope. Hope you hope you enjoy, hope
you enjoy the game. I sent Jacob pictures from my
Friday in Toronto at the old Maple Leaf Gardens where they
had the Grand Slam of Curling on the top floor of that old wing.
What a place. Love going there.
All right. Anything else you guys want to
mention that you have coming up? Do we do you have to do the the
game do? We do.
Oh, last call. We got to do last call.
I forgot about last call. I'm so oh, no excuses.
But since I can't get on underdog, I've just sort of
disconnected from it. Yeah, right.
And. Although although you are, you
are. You are now keeping up the time
honored tradition of whoever is hosting ADP chasing gets rug
pulled on being able to because Sam Sam got drafted on being
able to draft in in Connecticut. So you are.
Oh, you? Yeah, Well, he was in Maine.
I I think he rug pulled himself, didn't he?
All of New Englanders can't. I can't remember the direction.
I can't remember if it was Connecticut to Maine or Maine to
Connecticut, but one way or the other, he.
Was in Maine for the summer. He pulled his own rug.
He pulled. He pulled.
I mean, no, no offense Maine quote Maine.
No, I know. This is new.
York. This is New York.
I agree. Yeah, I know.
But I think we're going to be stuck all year.
It sounds like there's a there's a lawsuit.
I think I'm going to be stuck all year.
I don't know. Get on the Amtrak, buddy.
Yeah, but I'm looking at properties in, well, not Maine.
That's crossing that off the list.
OK. Anybody ready to start last call
ADP 200 or higher go. Yeah, if I already you go first
Jacob. All right, well, I posted my my
my big running back article. So all my running, all my rookie
running back thoughts are now I'm thinking about thinking and
one of the dudes sleeper, that's probably gonna amount to nothing
but that I'm a lot higher on Jarquez Hunter lights up
spreadsheets really high miss tackles, force ratings, really
incredible breakaway runner. And then I think most important
is that he plays without gloves, which is just so cool.
That's that's like a big a big baller sign for me personally.
And so Jerkwitz Hunter probably going to be like a healthy
scratch with the entire best ball playoffs.
But like him. So I'm going to point my flag
early just in case he gets drafted a little earlier than
projected. All right.
And that means we can't take him.
That's he's yours. Have I already taken Jalen
Millroe? Do we have the list up?
No. Oh, that's such a good one,
yeah. That's a good one.
I don't think you have. Jalen Millroe if the if the the
the goal of the game is points added to a roster weeks 1516 and
17 I. Think we're like doing like a
best ball roster is is yeah, we are talking about yeah.
Correct. Yeah.
So give me give me Jalen Millroe.
Also, as as Tim notes, I don't think we discussed the single
boring player so. No, that's right.
That's right. We haven't defined boring yet
today. We will have to edit.
Oh yeah, that was the title. In that particular sense.
Good value. These players are so boring,
we're not even going to talk about them.
They're not even I mean. This is actually wrong.
We talked about shooters, Sanders, for like an hour.
Yeah. That's true.
We talked about the Saints shut out.
Imagine a podcast doing that. All right, Pat.
Vinnie Testaverde. I I didn't realize this player
was was even outside the 200. He's been kind of floating
around there, I guess. But I I will go ahead and take
Damian Martinez, rookie running back out of Miami.
Is he? Is he after?
He's outside the top 2. 100 I've got I've got him at 205.7 right
here on my sheet. Wrong 178.9.
That's what I have too. Oh, I'm on DraftKings.
I'm on DraftKings. The classic mistake.
Classic mistake. You'll have to circle back.
I'll go. I'll go because we're building
teams and I'm going to get frozen out at quarterback and I
kind of a couple weeks ago said I've made a case for why I'm
drafting this player. So it's it's definitely kind of
raunchy, but I'll just take Russell Wilson.
I I do think like a pretty I don't.
Know if I'd describe it as raunchy?
All right, I'll let something. Go you called Sierra.
I, I know, I know what you're, I know what you're going for.
I'd go like, I'd go scrappy. I think probably versus but I I
get the general sense of what. You were gross, is what I was
going for. It's gross.
I see but. Rancid.
Perhaps rancid that. That's all right, Rancid.
You guys can you know figure that out, but for like
quarterbacks are going. Maybe kind of split the
difference between? Rancid.
Spicy. I think the likeliest season for
the Giants is they win like 7 games and he stays on the field
and so I'm not going to have a quarterback.
You guys are taking them all. Dart went in this thing, Rogers
went, Milro went today. So I need somebody.
Is Frederick C Kitchens the 4th still on staff there?
I don't think so. Are we back to passing game
coordinator? He was, he was old regime.
Gold regime, all right. Wow, he actually has the
funniest possible job. No, just looked at, no person
going to say the same thing. Karain Karain What would be the
funniest? The single funniest job pretty
kitchens could possibly have. There's nothing funnier than
this. It's so good.
He is a I'll, I'll, I'll give you a hint.
It's, it's a college football job.
It's not a professional football job.
He's not a head coach. The single funniest college
football job he could have. Can I ask one question?
Yes, about this. Is it a better gig than Max
Crosby's? Yes.
He's a head coach.
Freddie Kitchen is a head. No, no, he's not a headnater.
He's a coordinator. No, looking at the comments.
I don't know. He he is the offensive
coordinator for the University of North Carolina under Bill
Bella. I mean that you you literally
cannot find something funnier. Joe Judge wasn't available for
that one. He.
Was not available. Apparently.
That is good. Apparently he was on Mac Brown's
staff already at North Carolina. And then Belichick took the job
and was like, we got a diamond in the rough.
I'm promoting him, the offensive coordinator.
Yeah, young talent, young talent, young talent.
He was the interim head coach for the Tar Heels in the Fenway
Bowl last year. The Fenway.
Wow. The Fenway Bowl is what?
That was a game. That was a bowl game, yeah.
It, well, it used to be a bowl. Game that takes place at Fenway
Park. Because they do the Pinstripe
Bowl. So the Red Sox are like, come
on, man. We.
Oh, sure. We need our own.
Sure. Yeah, North.
Carolina lost by 13 to the University of Connecticut.
Tough, tough. So 3.
Basketball schools playing football in a baseball park.
Tough scenes, yes, yes, that's. Right, I've got, I've got my
spreadsheets here. One's for DraftKings, 1's for
Underdog. I was on the wrong 1 and that's
why. We know, we know.
Yeah. So now being on the right one is
just bumming me out because Underdog has done a much better
job of pricing these guys up. Plus, Russell's gone.
Yeah, plus Russell Wilson's gone, so what's the point?
Plus, I've already grabbed Harold Fan and I think I already
took Will Shipley, so I'm going to.
I'm going to take another rookie running back, but one that's
much less likely to have an impact than Martinez.
But I'll take Jordan James, Yeah, who I do think is still
live for pretty solid. I wanna say I already took him,
which is fine I think in the rules of this game.
Did you? Think it's.
Over. No, we can't.
We can't. Double dip.
Not OK. I think I took him.
Obviously we we need Zach to have the list up so.
I'll take Trevor Etn if if. James, do, I was going to say do
a contingent pick if he does, OK.
I know, but he's both both guys are bets on draft capital.
So ETN is the probably the better bet on draft capital.
I actually like James's profile a little bit.
He he's like that Abuka thing where it's like, hey, he's
totally sucks at this thing. Breakaway runs in this case, but
he's really good at this other thing.
So in that case, he's like a really consistent back in that
all the tape evaluators tend to agree with that.
So I'll take James if available. If not, I'll take ETN who I
think probably goes third or fourth round.
If James is available you get first crack at ETN next week if
you want him to since you mentioned his name otherwise.
I don't. I'm just.
I'll be. Praying on that information.
On my me. Yeah.
I don't really like him that much, but before the draft I
feel like it makes sense to bet on draft that Capitality still
have that out. Thank you everybody for watching
and listening ship chasing on Thursday.
The draft is next Thursday. We'll be back Tuesday next week
to, you know, last, last call for our takes on what will
happen in the real draft next week for Jacob Davis and Pat I'm
Mike. Thanks for being a part of ADP
chasing today. See you next time.