It's Week 3 and the Miami Dolphins are winning the Super
Bowl, but we've got some charts to show you how it can be
applicable for your fantasy teams.
This is stat chasing Pat Fryer helmo this.
Is why. This is why I'm hot Anita.
Hint hand job, fix your side. Jamar and also play Chase.
You can't handle the heat. It looks like we're finally this
boy too, right? Good evening, Drico.
I hope that you enjoyed Week 3 as much as I did because I was
shouting from the rooftops about my Miami bags.
Was feeling very excited about that.
Yeah definitely. Yeah.
Definitely a good week to be to be on there at Miami and
definitely and and nice little boosted it to the yeah standing
advance rates even if they are meaningless in a week 3.
Ohh yeah I'm definitely calculating my advance rates
each week. Just.
Watching them slowly, slowly take up.
I mean, if you're not doing it, are you really?
Do you really consider yourself a basketball sicko if you're not
fever, right? Like checking your advance rates
not even at the end of the week, but like at the end of every
window of every game. Like because the FFPC is like so
like archaic and then I have like a little spreadsheet that I
can see like which teams are scoring like.
What? What?
Each team has scored so far
because you actually have to calculate that like so totally
degenerate behavior. Yeah, fortunately for my the
DraftKings ones are the ones that are the most difficult for
like. There's no way I'm going to go
through by hand and count up all the DraftKings ones that are
advancing and not advancing. But thankfully, Spike Week has a
tool for that, so I saved myself some time manually counting
teams there. But before we dive into the
charts today, I just need to take the L as the biggest
professional musher. I think.
I mean, I I haven't been a musher before.
I think it's just being part of the ship chasing universe.
Now you're a content creator. I I inherited the mush dude
because the Dallas Cowboys just got absolutely mushed to death
after after me singing their praises last week.
I think I I said CD Lamb is moving up into the right on the
wide receiver charts. We're gonna see that.
That didn't age super well. I think I said doomsday defense.
That also did not age well. We had Josh.
I remember I was saying like 40 yards.
I remember. I was like, oh, well, we don't
really like what if these players that they played are bad
and you're like, no, dude, this defense is that good.
Yeah. Yeah.
I'm, I'm King Musher. There were a couple other mushes
that I had that I mean, Puka I know Puka was injured going into
this week, but I was, I was, you know ready to call Puka the
second coming of Cooper Cup and mushed mushed him pretty good.
So in the interest of a reverse mush, Kendra Miller teams,
they're just dead. Nothing's happening.
Kendra Kendra's done, guys. So pack it up.
Yeah, absolutely. Cut Kendra in all formats.
Unplayable. All right, let's let's get into
it. So like last week, we're looking
at this. This is mainly an efficiency
chart and we've got a adjusted yard for attempt.
Which it's like a yards per attempt but it rewards touch
sounds and and and punishes interceptions and and roughly in
the same weight as an EPA chart would but just that yards per
attempt is more intuitive and then touchdown rate pretty
intuitive and the size of the bubble is is how much rushing
yards they have and and with the scale on on the left here.
Indicating what 100 yards at a game looks like.
Excellent chart summary here. My immediate takeaways is I
believe that Tua is him. Previously we had Jordan Love
over in that area of the chart where Tua existed, but he came
back down to earth. This week he finally did not
throw 3 touchdowns in a game. So he he started to see his
touchdown rate and adjusted yards per attempt regress back a
little bit. But to A to a looks like him
looking like probably the best quarterback pick in in all of
basketball drafts. And we'll we won't we won't go
too much into where he should go in resurrection because I think
we've got a a special treat at the end of the charts today that
I'll we. Don't want to tip our hats a
teaser? Yeah, yeah, the other the other
guys, I noticed on this chart and now that we have a couple
games of sample, I'm starting to look for guys that I think might
be potentially undervalued by the market or like prime for a
good bounce back spot. I still think that Lamar is a
good candidate for outperforming how he has been doing this past
week. He did score you a lot of
fantasy points. He just did it all through the
ground. He rushed for over 100 yards and
two touchdowns. You know, he certainly got
there, but he didn't bring any weapons along with him.
I think that you're just waiting for that week where the passing
in clicks for Baltimore and Lamar gets a little bit more
done through the air and adds some on the ground and you can
get one of those truly massive weeks the other one that I.
Go ahead. Any concern about that?
Well, maybe actually, you know what?
Let's save the receiver's questions and talks to that part
of the chart. But yeah, I think I know where
you're going with that one. And yeah, we'll definitely touch
on that. I I think CJ Stroud, my, my
early CJ Stroud take is looking like it's going to age pretty
well. He's airing it out and doing
pretty well. And when I'm looking for guys on
these charts that that I like as a potential target or someone
that that could have like a spike week disproportionate to
what their previous weekly scoring has looked like looking
for guys in that top right quadrant but more you know
closely aligned with that that red dotted line for TD rate.
So like Stroud Purdy, Geno Smith Baker, Justin Herbert, guys that
are still getting pretty good adjusted yards per attempt, but
having a relatively low touchdown rate for how high the
yards per attempt is. To me, that's what I want to be
looking at when I'm looking for people with potential for a
really big game and just to keep with the trend of the early look
ahead. I like Justin Herbert for this
next week against Las Vegas. And I mean, my goodness, that's
probably gonna be the most consolidated target tree you
could imagine. It's like the dream for fantasy.
It's it's just gonna be the Keenan Allen show.
So I I really like that spot this week.
And I think just just to back up on that, Caesar Stroud, I think
the way I'm looking at this is that like, hey, he's a pocket
passer. Who's actually been scoring
decent points, but in terms of like efficiency touchdown, he's
been a pocket passer putting up points without touchdown
efficiency, which is sort of nuts.
Like if if if he can keep up this kind of like yardage
production, like he should have some monster passing games.
Like, obviously, caveat, it's true, three weeks of an NFL
season. But.
I think. I think that looks super
interesting. Yeah, 100% agree.
Stroud, Stroud, I really like he.
He would be someone that I would consider targeting in
Resurrection if he's still going cheap for sure.
Any guys that stood out to you on the chart either as
intriguing by low candidates or people that you're a little
worried now that we've got three weeks of data that there may be
a little more sticking power to the trends?
And obviously a little worried to see somehow having produced
kind of like so pearly he's in the I I I don't like to see guys
I was excited about in the Zach Wilson section of the chart and
I do know I I guess one note about it was that they were they
were trailing pretty heavily. And so quarterbacks they can
they do have to they have to throw more aggressively they
have to take more risks and and those interceptions they sort of
like they come with happen to to to throw deep and throw
aggressively when you're when you're losing And so I I'm I'm
starting to get a a smidge concerned with hello and but not
that certainly not throwing in the towel still excited because.
You you are still getting like even you you still are getting
sort of aggressive trolls. You're still getting rushing
production and but I'm I'm starting to I I'm starting to
reassess how I see that offense where you know I it it it would
be I think a win at this stage if the the commanders are sort
of like league average as an offense.
Yeah Howell was definitely concerning this week.
They were they were trailing pretty heavily and against a
good Bills defense but he took a pretty significant number of
sacks and he threw a lot of interceptions He was he was
still throwing deep and and being aggressive when they were
behind. So you like to see that you know
he's not he's not doing the you know I'm just going to hide and
Get Me Out of this game type thing when when he's in a bad
spot. So at least there's that that's
encouraging but yeah I I'm adjusting my priors on howl now
and looking at him as he can still produce spike weeks.
The rushing so far has not been as much as you would have liked.
You know the the thesis was, oh he can add a little with his
legs and so it hasn't been as much as you would have liked.
I think he's still you know, capable of producing a spike
lake here and there just with the quality of the weapons
around him and he he is willing to push the ball downfield.
But I I'm probably taking Sam Howell either with elite
quarterbacks that have very low downside deviation or I'm taking
him in three quarterback builds now.
I'm not doing very much of the the two quarterback how builds
where it's one guy like say a Geno Smith or a DAC Prescott.
Plus how I I'm gonna be more prone to taking three if he's my
my QB three there. That that makes sense.
And yeah sad sad to see and but yeah you have to adjust as well
There is there is one more I had before we move on and that's
Trevor Lawrence is is definitely concerning.
His success rate was still fine but his EPA was really poor.
So I think he's getting a little bit unlucky, but it's not super
encouraging to see this quote UN quote generational prospect, you
know, Andrew Luck level quarterback struggling so much
with, you know, the weapons that he has around him in a game
where you know, frankly people, people had them as you know
pretty strong favorite and they did not look good.
So I'm definitely concerned about Lawrence.
I think that his his ADP over the summer obviously got to just
irrational exuberance levels, which is why I didn't end up
with a ton of him. But I would, I would firmly
expect him to fall a bunch in resurrection and the market
might even overcorrect on him. But yeah, definitely.
I think, I think we've seen enough so far this season with
Lawrence to to know that like 5000 yards passing is probably a
that's wish casting at this point for a Trevor Lawrence
outcome this season. Yeah, yeah, I I I agree.
I'm just looking at some of the numbers here.
But I, I was just sort of doubting somehow.
But if you take out the interceptions and you're just
looking at a yard for attempts and and I I guess.
You can't really do that but let's say we just say
interceptions game the game are a bit volatile and I'm hell he
has 6.8 yards per attempt. Trevor Warren 6.5 They each have
3 passing touchdowns and and the only real difference is the 5
picks to to just two picks and I mean that I I'm obviously I'm
obviously being not quite correct here but it just it
reinforces the point to me that. It just hasn't been very good.
Yeah, that's. I think that's a good comparison
just to kind of show this is where this is the tier at
Echelon he's been in and that's that's why he shows up in the
quadrant of the charts, yeah, that he shows up in.
Yeah, agreed. And so, yeah, we did.
We did have a tease we wanted to do after the charts.
So we're gonna move through a little bit more quickly this
week and moving on to the Orbi Snaps and usage charts.
And so in in the green section, we've got rush attempts, yellow
is roots and blue we've got pass blocking and Gray we've got run
blocking. And so everyone, and this is
also scaled to as a percentage of the team's offensive snaps.
And everybody knows green roots rushes for running back normally
good and roots you want to see. You want to see your your
running back running a ton of roots.
And then pass block is not a. It's not quite useless because
it does show that the team trusts them and but you don't
accrue any fantasy points in the leaks that I play in for
blocking. And run blocking is obviously
pure garbage useless. Good summary here and at the top
of the chart. Just as we all predicted and how
we were drafting over the summer, Kyron Williams and Zach
Moss have the best running back roles in the entire NFL.
Okay. And that's the end of this chart
section. Other ones that Rashad White is
still getting a really good role.
We might Rashad White isn't good.
He's you know he's way under expectation is rushing yards
over expectation. He's still very negative, but
he's at least getting a role. So like as a as a floor play or
like a I don't know where he's going to go in resurrection.
I'm not sure how the market feels about Rashad White, but
maybe it's like a 0RB guy to make sure you're not getting
zeros. He's interesting.
Other roles that I thought were were noteworthy here.
We did see James Connors role shrink a little bit in favor of
Kiante Ingram this week. So that was interesting.
Wondering if that's going to be a trend over the season as we
see more Ingram work as the season goes along, or if it was
just a product of them just sticking it to the Cowboys?
And yeah, I mean James Connor. He is older and it seems like
he's playing decently well or or better than I expected.
And but that is interesting and that Kiante Ingram is is eating
into his into his snaps the and and that's that's one of those
things that it's super hard to call and you don't know like is
Kiante Ingram playing well or have they just sort of decided
that like yeah you know like James Connor we can't play him
on the field like every down. Yeah, I I'm not sure.
I think we need more sample to know for sure if that's gonna be
something that continues going forward or if that was just a
little noisy this week. But it's definitely something I
wanna monitor. It can make Kiante Ingram an
interesting you know, last round dark throw potentially.
Just yeah to you know just to sprinkle in here and there.
Other guys that I thought were interesting we're starting to
see Swift climb up the charts more now that he's got two games
of actually getting work. He's now over Kenny Gain.
Well he's he, you know is still getting a pretty good amount of
work. The charts aren't going to
totally reflect it cuz we've got week one in there where he
didn't get anything yet. But I would anticipate him
continuing to rise on this chart, and I would, I would
think gain, well, probably gets bumped to the backup chart
before too many weeks here. If this usage split continues
from this last week, yeah. And I I just flipped it to and
and if if you did just use week two or or if you exclude week
one then and Yonder Swift would then be he would be 14th on this
chart. So right around that, right
around Ramadre and yeah, Rahim mostard area.
Yeah. And and so yeah.
But that feels like it that feels like a fair expectation
going forward where he's 54% of the useful snaps and and and
yeah and and and and you hope that the talent keeps him there
and and that he actually like outperforms because because of
the the ridiculous efficiency. One that I noticed this week
that I had a question for you on was we saw the role delineation
in the Washington backfield get really really stark when they
were trailing heavily and that's Antonio Gibson ran like almost
all of the routes and Brian Robinson just he he was just
only out there running routes you know in name only it wasn't
it wasn't really like hey we're having him run routes because we
wanna get him active in the passing game is well it's a
passing play and he's on the field so he might as well run a
route. But Antonio Gibson was a lot
more involved in the passing game.
I'm wondering do you think that's gonna be sticky going
forward? Was it just a product of the
game script? What are your thoughts on that
backfield and how it's shake it out?
And it's that is something where it's super, it's like really
tempting to say listen and. The the the Washington
commanders they've seen what they they've seen what brown
Robins can do as a as a receiver and and they don't like it and
and so they're putting in they're putting in Antonio
Gibson and but I'm I'm having a still a hard time with that
because we are that is one thing where we're dealing with such
small samples and and. It's I think it's like you said
like you said previously that it's it's interesting you want
to monitor it and if if you're getting a market that is just
leaving Antonio Gibson for dead like you you've got all the
reason to to like take cheap Antonio Gibson and but I I
certainly wouldn't want to be paying for it like that's gonna
be the case going forward. Yeah, very, very well put.
That was that was my take on it as well.
Like if the market's willing to give them to me for free, that's
an interesting piece. But yeah, I don't don't really
wanna pay up for it. Anyone that you noticed on this
usage chart you know trends that you're interested in going
forward and what is interesting I think it it, it is a little
bit interesting that Joe Mixon has held on to such a a strong
role and it did this. This feels a little bit stronger
than than the market was expecting and and and what they
had for him last year. And it does sort of suggest to
me that the reason that he took a little bit of a backseat on
passing downs towards the end of last year was actually the
Bengals liked P Ryan and it it wasn't such a indictment on that
mixing and I'm definitely embarring an injury.
I'm definitely not as excited with my my backup Bengals
running backs, and they don't feel nearly as good as they did
before the season started. OK, interesting.
I was gonna ask you how you felt about Trevion Williams because
it does look like he is emerging as the Clear 2.
To mix it, right, like I know he's, he's hung on the roster
for a while and they were willing to let P Ryan go.
So I kind of by process of elimination had decided they
probably like Treyvion Williams, at least enough.
Clearly they don't like him as much as Semaj P Ryan or he would
have been playing more last night, right.
So he's somewhere in between, you know, Semaj P Ryan and all
the other backs on the depth chart.
But they did like Semaj P Ryan more than Joe Mixon in the
passing game. And honestly, they kind of
seemed like they liked him just better in general in the
playoffs. You know, Semaj P Ryan was was
out snapping Mixon when it mattered the most, when the
chips were down. So to me, I thought there was a
path. I'll be in a thin one for
Trevion to work his way in and and get some more opportunity in
this offense. So how, how do you view Trevion
specifically in this backfield going forward?
And I think that's a good point that that he's he is the clear
#2 over those other guys. And I mean if he can if he can
eat into mix and share it doesn't take that much and it
doesn't take that much in that type of offense.
Well I I should I should caveat that it it last year it wouldn't
have taken that much for it to be valuable.
This year it it's not it's not nearly as valuable so far with
with Joe Joe Burrow injured and and the offense not playing as
well and so it's it it it sort of feels like you are you are
doing a sort of tricky parlay where you need the offense to
get better and you do need them to consolidate and a little bit
more in terms of like what you call it in in terms of usage.
Just just for example the the Bengals I forget how many times
they they threw last night but I know they threw quite a bit and
Trevion had just 7 routes. So you you really do need that
share to go grow quite a, yeah, quite a bit I think.
Yeah, so sounds like eighteenth round Darkthrow.
Only on Trey Leon and and not yeah, someone that you're very
acceptable 18th round Darkthrow. But you're you're not coming.
In super overweight Trevion or anything, expecting no much from
him. That's just yeah, you just need
you need a couple of things to break your way and it it it it
doesn't feel that it doesn't feel like I said, it doesn't
feel as strong as it did before. What what what?
What's your take on it. It sounds like you might be the
the opposite. No, no I'm I'm I'm kind of with
you that I'm not terribly optimistic about Treyvion going
forward but I think the way to play that backfield is probably
through Treyvion. Yeah, I don't know where the.
I don't know what the Mixon price is gonna be.
If if people are letting Mixon go for for cheap, I'm interested
just in in the role. In the event that Treyvion just
never is able to get much work or get on the field and Mixon
just has this incredible role, then I'm interested if he's
cheap, but if he's. Still relatively expensive or
going like in that that dead zone range.
I'll probably just opt out of Nixon and take a couple random
dark throws on Trevians. See if it breaks my way, Yeah,
yeah, I agree there. I definitely agree with that
approach and love to see Bijan continue up in the in the sort
of work horsy section of the chart and we we still still have
Deon Jackson here. I that's on me to to take him
out. Yeah, my, my apologies.
We'll we'll next Deon Jackson next week in the charts.
I can I can exclude him and. But no, nobody else here is
like, seriously, like, other than like what we've already
talked about. And I'm not saying I I'm not
saying anybody else here. And I mean Ramadre is right
around where we'd have expected him to be.
It's a bit interesting that Madison has held on to his
stronger snap rate and that the Vikings they for somehow haven't
been able to find anyone better than him.
And he did. He did finally put together a
decent game this week. I mean, he didn't.
He didn't look great again and had.
Honestly, what should have been a fumble, I believe they they
reviewed it for forward progress and ruled him down.
Which my goodness, can we just get like any kind of consistency
in what we can and cannot review?
And that, like, I thought forward progress was virtually
unreviewable. It's just based on the whistle,
right? Like we can't.
But apparently we can review that.
We can't review pass interference.
It's just officiating this league is very silly yeah.
And yeah I I I agree and that that is a bit strange and but
yeah I I I think we've sort of like I I don't I don't think
there's anybody emerging here and that wouldn't have expected
like obviously. I think most of the trends are
holding that we discussed Damian Pierce continuing to migrate
towards the bottom, that's like. Get it.
Get out while you can on your Damien Pierce if you can get
anything for him yeah agreed and so let's let's go to the backup
section of the chart and and super Ram.
I I think it's a it's a it's a bit disheartening and seeing
seeing some of the names of the top javante but to be honest
with with the injury that's sort of to be expected and I know
Jamir Gibbs he's been running at he he he did run quite a lot of
roots in in week two and then he sort of came back a bit and we
tree which is also a bit disappointing.
You know what's the weirdest thing to me about Gibbs?
Is I I thought with no Montgomery, you know, he'd
increase his opportunities on the ground.
But I I I thought just by virtue of having him on the field more
they would end up, you know? Throwing to him a ton, he'd get
even more targets, but that really wasn't the case.
He he was much more involved on the ground than I anticipated
and less involved in the passing game than I thought he would be.
I do think that and this is a relationship that we've seen
historically, but tight end and running back targets being
inversely correlated now part of that is because of the area on
the field where those players operate typically.
And so I don't know if that's necessarily what's happening
here because La Porta is operating in all quadrants.
So I don't know that that's necessarily the reason why Gibbs
saw fewer targets. But it's interesting to monitor.
I wanna pay attention and see if we've got like a decent negative
correlation between Gibbs and La Porta.
And so I think Gibbs is somebody where we do have to mark our
expectations down a little bit cuz like the the pure, the pure
not run out that we thought we were going to get especially
seeing how incredibly he looked in week one.
It it doesn't it doesn't feel as strong and what and what is
notable is his his predecessor and the under Swift.
Like absolutely beating the piss out of like any of the
accusations that it seems like the the the the lines coaching
staff were giving Swift. And so it does.
It does make me think that like OK, if somebody as incredible as
Swift and and able to perform as exceptionally well as he has had
had the kind of bad rap with coaches in with the lines like
does that just like bode ill for for Gibbs and go ahead.
No, Yeah, I think it's a good point.
I I do think there's a little smoke here with how this
coaching staff deploys. They're running backs.
I think it's a little premature to say oh we're not gonna get
that ceiling outcome that we think from get you know he's
still a rookie it's still it's only been week three.
I think we can we can definitely see his production increase as
the season goes on and the situation's very, very good.
It's just not it's not the absolute dream like Oh my gosh
you know David Montgomery goes down and Gibbs is just already
delivering you 20 point fantasy weeks.
But I I'm still, so that's what I mean, yeah.
Yeah. Like I'm not trying to say, hey,
there's no ceiling now for Gibs. I'm just trying to say, well, if
you drop them in the third round and you're hoping that you're
getting first round production by some point, that feels less
likely. Yeah, that's very valid.
One of the other rookie running backs that shows up on this
chart that I wanted to mention. I thought this was was
definitely worth bringing to people's attention if they
didn't notice Zach Charbonnay all the way at the bottom.
But he is. He's going to be slowly creeping
up. He's seen his snap share
increase week over week. Not that I mean Kenneth Walker
has looked Kenneth Walker looks like exactly what you'd want out
of Kenneth Walker. You know he he's a home run
hitter right? Like that is that's.
What he's built for and that's what he's doing.
So you know you feel feel great about Kenneth Walker.
I do think that Charbonnay is starting to become pretty
interesting. You know his contingent value
has got to be one of the better contingent values in the league.
I I would think just cuz I wouldn't anticipate like a DJ
Dallas getting substantial work for long in the event that
Walker missed time, right. I think Charbonnay would be able
to consolidate. Most of that.
So he's interesting to me in that aspect And then just a you
know quick quick touch on the the Ravens backfield.
I mean Gus Edwards is now injured.
Justice Hill is injured. We're just like we're just going
to roll out like Melvin Gordon and Kenyon Drake and whatever
man that's a that team cannot catch a break with injuries.
How has your opinion changed on? Which of these running backs you
want in the Baltimore backfield? Is it just a stay away for you?
How are you playing this? And it it it has become like a
sort of like frustrating backfield and where the overall
offense hasn't been good enough to like really prop up
production and and then you have you have the rushing quarterback
so he can obviously still touchdowns and then what's his
name Zay Flowers. He gets a ton of like what could
have been running back targets and definitely not it doesn't
seem to be a fantasy rich environment for running backs
and and and probably honestly probably some of that is that
they're not trotting out world leaders and I think when Justice
Hill comes back he's still he's still the running back to own
and but would be very cost conscious on on on on justice
and I think you're like probably is the wealth round or 12th
round is like I'm I'm I'm I think I might be actually too
high there or or too early there is like the most I'm paying
doesn't feel like a good backfield to target for sure.
Yeah, I think I, I did 2 Resurrection drafts today just
to kind of like dip my toes in the water and yeah, see the
initial Adps. And he is currently unlisted
with no ADP. So it's really just you're at
the mercy of your room. You know you're trying to play a
guessing game of when. People are going to take him.
He went too early in both rooms in my opinion.
I think someone grabbed him in like the 8th in one of the rooms
and the 10th in the other and I starting running back price.
Yeah I I was good off off that. There is a pretty steep running
back. Gets disgusting rather quick
after like the 12th, 13th round in resurrection.
Just cuz we've a lot of the the 0RB targets like the thesis.
Has already played itself out. You know, a bunch of them
already hit and the ones that didn't hit they got like super
mush. So right, it's pretty binary on
those. The 0 RB targets, it does kind
of make it a little harder, you know, pushing the that RB pin
all the way to the end. The, the, the, the range of
uncertainty on lots of backfields got a lot thinner.
Yeah, which makes it. Harder 100% Yeah, that, that
makes sense. And then yeah, one one thing on
on Zach Charbonnay, it does feel like the coaching staff, they
really like Kenneth Walker, really like Kenneth Walker.
So the fact that they're playing Charbonnay, even this much, it's
it's probably a solid sign for him.
Especially if you're playing for like a contingent value where
Walker may not, where Walker isn't available to like if he's
injured. Yeah, I, yeah, definitely,
definitely interested in Charbonnay because of that
because they they certainly like Walker.
And so let's move on to the expected points part of the
chart. And so we've got a on the on the
vertical axis we've got receiving expected points and on
the horizontal axis we've got rushing expected points.
And then you can see these sort of dotted red lines that sort of
mark the different sections. So it starts off as zero to five
expected points, 5 to 1010 to 1515 to 20.
And then one thing that we should note that it may may have
not been clear last week was that we split this up into two
different charts into an evens and odds.
And that may not seem intuitive, but the reason for it is, is we
wanted to make sure that the charts are not clustered.
We want you to be able to see the players on the charts and
then by splitting them out that way, that was the best way to
achieve that. Excellent chart explanation.
Much of the same on this chart from the past two weeks.
Couple couple big differences. I mean, Rahim Mostard is going
way over fantasy points expected per game now.
I mean he's he's just been absolutely smashing.
He he managed to break himself into that 15 to 20 expected
fantasy points tier. You know, among the likes of
Christian McCaffrey, Kenneth Walker, Alexander Madison.
So most it is someone that's really interesting for his
immediate term production. Although on the next chart we
will see his backfield mate who erupted this week, and we'll
we'll talk a little bit more about the implications that
backfield as a whole, other other things worth pointing out.
I mean there's just that big kind of clump of guys in that 10
to 15 fantasy point range where they to me, I kind of look at
that ranges like these are the last running backs I'm really
wanting to target. You know, if you look at
everyone below that, you're looking at like Latavius Murray,
Khalil Herbert, Dalvin Cook, Eli Mitchell, you know, Devin
Singletary, Deonta Foreman, not. Not guys I'm super excited
about. And so that 10 to 15 band
contains the guys where I'm like, let me let me throw a
bunch of these on my roster, you know, at good costs.
There's a couple though that we're going to see continue to
climb. Like for example, I wouldn't
expect DeAndre Swift to hang out here very long.
You know, I I think that we'll probably see him.
Get a little more work he he's just been so efficient with it
and the Eagles seem to they're they're picking up what he's
putting down. I I think they're pretty happy
with what he's doing. So I wouldn't be surprised to
see him Crest into that 15 to 20 range and be in there with guys
like Most or Kenneth Walker McCaffrey.
Yeah, that that makes sense. And one thing that that this
chart can be can be useful for is that you see yeah Khalil
Herbert he's getting at 37% of the between rush attempts and
routes and on on other teams obviously that's that's that's
not not great and on on other teams that would be more usable
and but you can see here he's he's sort of hanging out in the
in the nine expected points range which absolutely you know
absolutely fine if you're getting a cheap Kaloo Herbert.
But the the kind of potential downside case for the Bears
backfield where the offense isn't very good and it split up
too many different ways and definitely, definitely feels
like it's playing out there. But I do think like that's also
a backfield where if you get an injury.
And it sort of consolidates a bit that could be that that
could get very interesting especially if the bears were
were to to turn it around. I'm I'm the most interested in
Rochon in that backfield. I don't think he's, I don't
think that Herbert does so much more than him as a runner, where
he's gonna, you know, get kept off the field because they just
love Herbert over him and I think he adds a lot more in the
passing game. The problem is this Bears team
is really bad, at least so far. They they look like an offense.
You don't want to touch the 10 foot pole and Justin Fields
doesn't look like he can deliver the ball accurately to anyone so
that they're receiving expected points that Roshan is getting.
I wonder how much we can actually expect him to realize
those, if those are, you know, especially if he's getting
targets that are farther downfield.
You know are they really going to be something he can convert
because are they even catchable? But I am.
I think as far as the way to play this backfield, you want to
play it through Rochon because the ceiling is probably the
highest there and you end up with that archetype of back
where he should be able to be involved regardless of game
script, where Khalil Herbert can definitely get game scripted
out. So I'm definitely, I prefer
Rochon to Herbert and I think. I believe I would be taking
Roshon over Herbert right now in resurrection.
OK, that said, that sounds very fair.
And I'm guessing that that is a large function of you're not
gonna take Herbert very high either, so you're.
Yeah, you're not gonna take either than very high and like I
know the the current ADP is it's not it's gonna update and but
current ADP has Herbert 94 like obviously way too high and then
Rochon's hanging around 1:50. The way.
Oh, sorry, go ahead. And I'm thinking that you should
probably push Rochon up a good amount.
And so that's in the 150, that's like the 13 rounds.
And so probably push them up to like I don't know the 12th, 11th
that that's not actually that good amount and then and then
Herbert A just a little bit behind them and but I I think I
I probably would expect drafters to to take Herbert over Roshan
which which I hope they do. Yeah, yeah, I I was just gonna
say that I I kind of anticipate that that range of the draft
from like the 12th through 14th round has a bunch of.
People in it right now that should move there.
The Adp's are really inefficient in that kind of range of the
draft. So I bet you're going to get a
bunch of these like Herbert, Mitchell, Singletary, Dalvin,
Cook, all these guys. You know, I I bet that's where a
bunch of them land, cuz that to me that feels like kind of a
vacuum or an empty space in the draft where there's guys in that
range that'll move up a lot and there's guys in that range
that'll move down a lot. And I think that's going to be
just like the empty void where all these guys settle.
That's just my read on it one. One that I wanted to bring up.
If you are drafting resurrection, one that's really
interesting sequon is you know allegedly had a high ankle
sprain. But you know the it's the rumor
mill is like Oh no, he's he's fine.
He's week to week. Let's just let's just sprinkle
little Matt Breeda in there. He's going undrafted.
That's, you know. Pre pre NFL season, I wasn't
very excited about a handcuff in that backfield.
But now that we are, we have a much higher probability of
realizing the contingent value in that backfield.
And I don't think Breed is going to be a world beater or
anything. I don't think.
I think sake one actually. He said that he has a high
anchor screen. OK, but yeah, I'm I'm looking at
like now I have a way higher probability of realizing this,
and so let me just take some dark throws.
On on Breda Gosh, I can't remember the name is escaping me
for the other back there that got more of the past a little
more past catching work in their most recent game.
I'm drawing a blank as well, and they're probably.
Both fine dart throws. I I think you prefer Breda
because he does look to be working ahead of whoever is back
bright. Well, thank you.
Thank you. Yeah.
So I'm Breeda over Brightwell. But like if you wanted to, if
you think that the Giants are going to get a lot better and
that offense is the one that you want to target, I would mix in
both Breeda and Brightwell. Then for someone where you're
just like I would like an 18th round running back that has the
ability to potentially get work, I would just be sprinkling
Breeda. I think Brightwell is just more
if you're like bullish on that offense and trying to diversify
your bets there that that makes sense for sure.
And I think reminder is that a really interesting point of that
of this chart where he's at 15 expected points per game and and
obviously that's like a starting that's a starting running back
role and but the efficiency has has just not been there and I
think that's somewhat interesting in that running back
efficiency it can be super volatile and we have a we do
have a decent track record that Ramondre is good and then you
you have this thing as well where the offense hasn't played
that well either. So maybe that's part of the
function of the the underperformance.
But not to. Oh, good, Go ahead.
No, no, you go ahead. Not to, you know, zoom in to too
small of a sample, but just from watching the game this week,
Ramondre didn't look great. To me you know I'm I'm not a
ball knower so take that with a grain of salt.
But he there there was a a play where he was wide open and the
had nothing but green grass ahead of him wide open in the
flat and he gets hit in the numbers with the pass and just
just drops it just flat drops it.
I know the weather wasn't great but it was like dude come on
that that's like must must catch.
There was another route that he ran where.
Just it didn't look like he was. I I don't know.
He didn't look like he was ready for the ball or like, aware that
he was gonna be targeted. You think he's like, he's not.
His head isn't in the game. I I don't wanna say that.
That feels like I know you don't wanna say that, but I yeah, it's
it's just something. I think it's something that's
like super hard to call. I'm just obviously we want to be
on the on the on the watch out for him to just play really
badly all year. But like unless we unless we've
heard something where like he's gained weight or like the
coaches like they don't like him, it it does feel like a
let's say reminder he falls into like the fifth round or
something like that or like something like that.
It does seem like a really interesting bet to make.
Yeah, in the 5th it starts to be interesting.
I would need to be on the clock, faced with the other decisions
there in the 5th because like you know, the Swift's ADP right
now is silly. It won't stay, but it's like 80.
You're never taking, right, Andre?
Over Swift, right? No.
Yeah. What about mixing?
So I, I I probably will take room, Andre over mixing.
Yeah, interesting. I I think I probably go mixing
over Ramondre just because they're they're giving Zeke a
lot of opportunity, like a lot, like more than he probably
should get. But they're giving him a lot.
So and mixing is like not receiving that that kind of
competition for touches. So for me, I'm just gonna take
the guy who seems like he's gonna carve out a larger piece
of the pie. Yeah, I mean that that that that
sounds totally fair. And I am.
I just have have a block in my brain of like but I I just find
it so hard to believe that they will continue to do that with
Zeke and but that is like when when when one running back is
getting considerably more competition for touches and then
maybe it is easier to believe the Bengals offense turn around
I I I I'm a bit more I'm a bit skeptical of that and but I I
totally see that. If you have anyone else on this
chart, go ahead and and yeah let's let's let's move on so
same chart and I assume this is this is the odds.
Yep, and just as we anticipated the running backs with the
highest amount of expected fantasy points per week.
Austin Eckler, Kyrie Williams and And Zack Moss Hot on the
heels. Yeah.
And that super surprising. And one thing that that does
strike me here is that when when is enough enough?
With Josh Jacobs, I. I was gonna bring up the same
thing he is. He's withering in, you know,
he's getting the opportunity and he is withering it's and I I
don't know. This this week could be a get
right spot gets the Chargers right.
Chargers have not been good against the run by you know,
probably by design as well. But I mean, if Josh Jacobs and
I, I hate when people do that. If this guy doesn't produce this
week, he's done like that's that's almost really.
But if Josh Jacobs doesn't produce this week against the
Chargers and gets a similar workload?
You've got to start to be concerned about the ceiling
outcomes for him, and I don't know exactly what what it is
that's causing him to be less efficient this season.
But yeah so so far through this small sample it hasn't looked
great. Yeah, yeah I, I.
And then the fact that he he did have just the one year of of
excellent or good efficiency and is definitely yeah, definitely
concerning. And then sometimes when when I
see a player who's been particularly inefficient I I
like the look of the yardage and the touchdown stuff So he's on
the touchdown for for all for all three weeks he's he's -14
expected points are points over expected just from touchdowns
and and so that obviously you you have to take that with a
grain of salt because and that that's super volatile and but on
the yardage point he's at he's -8 over expected so you're
talking about let's say 30 or so 202527 and yardage under
expected and and so like it's just like a broad scale
inefficiency and and and and when I'm already a little
skeptical I I I I I anyway tend to be a little bit quicker to
like yeah you know like this feels like very dead zoning.
Yeah, I I agree. He feels very dead zoning to me.
The the man of the week that we have to we can't leave this
chart without talking about is Devani chain largest circle on
the chart just running hotter than the sun on fantasy points
over expectation, you know. Breaking off long runs for
touchdowns, his that short touchdown, his first touchdown
that he got where he was working through traffic inside.
They were like around right around the 10 when he got it,
but he's working through traffic.
I I did not think he was scoring a touchdown on that play.
To me. I was like, OK, he might, he's
gonna get hit around the five and he'll he'll go down right at
the goal line. But he just managed to get right
in there, that was. That was awesome.
Oh, maybe that was the 2nd touchdown he scored.
I think the first one was that. No look, shovel pass.
Is that right? Or was that a there were so many
touchdowns in that game. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. 4
touchdowns. Hard to keep track of them all
and I but the point you're making is that he he he looks
fantastic. Yeah.
And and and when a rookie comes out in his first kind of like
big game where there's a big role and he looks that good and
very, very encouraging. And so I I've been sort of like
humming and hawing on a chain. So with our with a Chan and with
him looking so good but then on the other hand other running
backs being healthy next week Ahmed and Jeff Wilson comes back
soon. How, how are you balancing that?
Do you think like and the coaching staff are just gonna be
like, Oh well, this guy is clearly fantastic or do you
think they'll be, they'll still really like the guys that they
liked and that might push him a bit.
I'm I'm trying to remember where I heard this so I properly
attribute credit, but I believe it was on stealing bananas.
I wanna say that, Gretsch said. You know this a Chan is, he's
out of the bag. The cat's out of the bag on it,
right? He takes out of the few.
Yeah you cannot you can't go back and just pretend that you
didn't see this crazy efficiency.
He he looked looked like everything you want as a coach.
So I I'd be very surprised for him to not have maybe his his
workload isn't as large as it was you know this last week
going forward. I'd be pretty surprised, though.
They're going to have trouble keeping off the field.
And then we got a a good question.
In the chat from Aaron here. If you had to choose between 1
running back between a Chan or gain well season long, who would
it be? I'll let you answer this one
first Rico. Yeah, it's a Chan all all day
long all day long. And obviously they they started
they started off in at different places in in week one.
But if you give me, if you give me two running backs who
honestly have at least for the next couple weeks have similar
expectations for snap percentage, but one of them
looks incredible and then the other one is clearly being
outperformed, I I want the one who looks incredible.
Yeah, yeah, Well, well said. It's a it's a windmill slam
dunk, A chant over game. Well, for me, yeah.
Yeah no no question about it. And and then obviously he gets
he he's he's sort of like his ADP.
Like, I'm I'm just trying to think through his ADP now.
Like he's what you want the Gibbs to be, right?
Jamir Gibbs. It I think it's a little early
to say just because we only have the one week of the workload
being what you'd want. Because like putting putting him
up to like, Ohh, he's what we wanted Gibbs to be.
I mean what we want. I know I'm that that's
suggesting that he should be in the fourth round.
I don't know if I if I if I wanna suggest that and, but I'm
just trying to like frame my thinking in terms of like
upside. Yeah, I mean the the upside is
that he consolidates the majority of I I always think
they're gonna be a multi back backfield, but the upside is he
consolidates the majority of. The best offense in the league
for the eventual Super Bowl winning Miami Dolphins and he's
live for 15 touchdowns. You know like, yeah.
So the upside is, is sky freaking high.
You know the he is it. Is it too hot of a take to say
that the upside is like top five RB?
No, I don't think so. And like if if if if you're
saying that if he has like this possibility to be like let's say
a 5055% Snapshare guy and he's this player who Mike McDaniels.
He he just can't wait to scheme of all these different crazy
ways to get him in space. He runs a four tree and and and
he's getting all these long touch sounds and crazy plays
like that that that totally feels like a possibility.
Yeah, I mean he he just seems like a perfect fit for the
offense very, very bullish on him going forward.
The other guy who I I feel a little more bullish on going
forward after this week is James Cook.
I mean he he's still, you still have the goal line carry
concerns where. He's losing goal line work to
Latavius Murray. I I cannot, I refuse to believe
that by week, by the most important weeks, you know, week
15/16/17, Latavius Murray is still getting goal line carries.
There's no way. I I refuse to believe 34 year
old Latavius Murray is stealing goal line work in week 17 of the
year of our Lord 2023. Does that Am I being do I have
take lock Am I like Latavius Murray?
Anti take locked or what's going on here and I mean he he's
clearly giving us the evidence that like hey they like this guy
on the on the goal line and they're giving him the work and
but I think as as like if you're trying to test the fragility or
like how did how how can the seat how can our new
expectations be fragile like that definitely feels like one
where yes that him Latavius Murray being the goal line back
for as long as they for the rest of the year probably it feels
like probably a decent a decent percentage likelihood but it's
it's also so fragile where there's so many things that can
happen where you can get injured or he he messes up he he has a
big fumble and he messes some stuff up and then like they
don't have any attachment to him and yeah that that's sort of
like I I'm I'm trying to talk to you myself and like I I think it
it it probably is like a it's I think it's probably a a 5050
thing and. Where?
Yeah, sorry. But I I do think what what is
interesting is even with a Latavius Murray taking goal line
stuff and James Cook, he still had like half, half an expected
touchdown in week two and three. So, like it's not like he's
drawn, he's not like he's not getting any goal line stuff.
You just you wish it was a bit more.
Yeah, I and that's I just think that he's looked good enough and
if he continues to play well then there's a chance of him
being able to win a little bit more of that work.
I don't think they really want him for the Super.
You know the hey, it's we're, you know first and goal on the
one like are we really putting James Cook in there?
Are we just going to ram it up the middle of Latavius?
But like from the stuff that's just a couple yards out, like 3
yards out, four yards out, five yards out, I feel like he's he's
very live to get those opportunities, which he he's
definitely good enough to to score.
If I agree, situations and the fact that he's already getting
something, it makes it much easier to believe that like he
he can just build that up just a little bit more.
That's that's one where I'm just like kind of praying that the
market overreacts to him not getting goal line stuff and he
he slides back to what his early ADP looked like.
But we'll we'll see how the market plays that makes sense
for sure and I think Bruce Hall still being back here and
obviously as they ramp him up and as Zach Zach Wilson sort of
like impairs the offense. And I I I'm a little I'm a
little sad to see him still down here especially when when you
know when we saw that what's his name Jovante is is seems to be
running a little bit ahead of him in terms of expected points.
Oh well, he's right here. And so that that is a bit
disappointing for Breece Hall. Are, are, are we?
Are are we adjusting there or or?
I I think it's still, he's still not getting the amount of snaps
that you think that he can get to.
He did see more snaps this week, believe he's up around 50%.
I don't have it right in front of me, but I would, I would
anticipate his role to continue to grow because Cook has looked
terrible. They don't have anyone else of
consequence there that is going to push him for work.
So I really just think it's, you know, Breese and Cook and right
now Michael Carter's doing the Michael Carter is out there when
they're like just a warm body, anybody.
Michael Carter takes the snaps, pal.
So I think Breese can take all of, he can win all those snaps
and he can, he can steal some of the snaps that Dalvin's getting.
Right now the big, the big question for me that defines
where you take Breese Hall, what your expectation is for him is
how many more weeks. Does Zach Wilson play
quarterback for The Jets? Yeah, and and and let's say,
let's say they come out tomorrow and it looks like they just
signed that Trevor Simeon. If they switch to Trevor Simeon,
how how much does that? Like does that impact your your
outlook for Brees Hall? It's probably like situation
neutralish, You know, I don't, I don't think it's a huge
improvement over Zach Wilson, but.
Yeah, I mean the the types of moves that would make me
reassess and say now I'm like, I think the probability of the
true bowl case for Breese is much more likely to be realized
would be they trade for Jacoby Burset or you know, Ryan
Fitzpatrick comes out of retirement or you know, I mean
shit even like Joe Flacco. What would be enough?
Where I'm like, all right, Breece is back on the menu.
I I think that he is talented enough that it just won't matter
to an extent. Like he will always have the
explosive play in his bag. It's just the frequency that he
can break explosive plays at is. Lower if the offense is a whole
like if the only thing you have to worry about is Brees, then
it's much harder to to get those explosive plays at a higher
frequency. And also he he doesn't get to
realize as much touchdown equity if the offense is just bad and
not moving the ball and and sustaining drives and getting
into the red zone. So it's it's pretty important I
yeah, I'm operating under the assumption that.
The Jets are in to win this season.
I I think they firmly, Whether this is based in reality or not,
I think they're gonna delude themselves into thinking Aaron
Rodgers will be able to make it back for a playoff run.
All we have to do is limp into the playoffs like we basically
the the strategy for every Breece Hall drafter in best ball
season. Like Breece is gonna be at full
strength in the most important weeks.
All I have to do is limp into the playoffs with Breece Hall,
right? I think The Jets are the same
way. So I I feel like the odds have
to be pretty strong that they bring in a quarterback to
replace Zach Wilson before too long here.
Yeah. And I see that where like they
the the the coaching staff gets frustrated enough that they're
like, OK, we got it. We got it.
We got to give some. We got to make a trade here or
we got to like make a move. And I think the other thing
that's interesting about Breeze, because I was just thinking
about it while you were talking, is that he did actually do
everything that he did last year was in a or not everything, but
almost everything he did last year was in a Zach Wilson
operated offense. And so if he did get if he got
back when when he gets back to 100% like we can probably use
last year's kind of like games somewhat of a framework to think
about it where The Jets they want to hide their quarterback
maybe maybe less so if it's not Zach Wilson but they want to
hide their quarterback and how do you do that You find creative
ways to get Reese haldeval and and I think that that that's
like an important sort of like we're not we're not seeing that
yet because he is ramping up. But I think that's an important
part of the the story of like when he when he does get close
to 100% and they are giving him much more work that maybe he can
just be efficient enough that you you get you get something
there even with with per quarterback play.
So I think honestly I'm haven't told myself that story.
I don't think I'm, I'm moving them down all that much just
because the first tree like let's say the 1st through the
1st 3 weeks of the season and Chris Hall has been on the field
at 39% of the time and then in Week 3 that was 4049% of the
time. So he is being he is being
ramped back up and it probably is is actually pretty close to
the trajectory that would have been reasonable to believe and
before the year. And so I think I'm I'm I'm
starting to feel like you know, I I, I when I first saw him on
the chart here I was kind of discouraged but thinking true
it. I think you I I'm actually not
moving. I'm not moving that much.
No, yeah, it's to me, it's Bree, solid business as usual.
We still, you know, we're still hoping for it to play out in in
the way that we think that it can.
The the biggest concern for me, if it is a Zach Wilson offense
the whole season is it's going to be much harder to realize his
upside in the receiving game because he is he's an elite
receiver. You know, like he's up there
with Christian McCaffrey as far as how good he is in the passing
game. And so if you have like, Oh my
God, I'm just, I'm so sad to not.
See Aaron Rodgers. Get to use him in the passing
game? Cuz that to me felt like such a
good match. Like the the type of quarterback
that would be able to truly take advantage of his running back
having that type of skill set. Oh, it's such a bummer.
All right, we need to move to the next chart before I get too
sad here. And one thing, one thing just
cuz I do wanna make sure we're taking questions.
And Penny, Where would you take Penny?
And so where do you take the Ford string running back?
Yeah, same. Place I take Boston Scott, yeah,
and feels really bad. Much regret.
But yeah, he's an 18th round dark Tro if you so wish.
Yeah. So, yeah, let's move on.
And so we're on to the tight end chart.
And so this is the chart part is what we're really focusing on is
the root percentage and that's that green color.
And then just because we want to see how often they're still on
the field for passing place, we have pass blocking there in that
kind of salmon pink color. And and then obviously you want
that, you want, you don't want them just running roots, you
want them going to have blue target as well.
So we've got targets per run here, and then you want targets
down the field, so we've got a, we've got a dot here as well.
Yeah the we can we can have a funeral for our our boy Smythe
this week because this was the the week where if you're going
to. Again, not to not to do that
thing where it's like, oh, he didn't produce this week.
He's totally buried. But like he's not he's not
anyone that I want to like play in season long or like he the
only time I'm throwing Smythe out there is in like DFS when
he's Stoneman and I'm correlating him with to you
know, I'm not yeah. Not super excited to take him in
resurrection drafts, but man. You know who I am super excited
to take? Who I Unfortunate I was greedy
today in my 2 drafts that I did and I tried to push him just one
of the sorry on smite and before sorry to interrupt.
Yeah. He had just a 25% route share in
in, in we treat. Yeah, sorry, I didn't clarify
there why we were burying him. And so we were super happy when
he was at the top of this chart. And his talent is not something
that we're particularly excited about, but like a tight end
who's running every route and very excited.
But if he's being dropped, unless there's some injury that
we don't know about like that, just completely unplayable.
And I'm a bit hesitant to cut just because maybe there's an
injury announcement and he's fine or something like that, but
very, very close to to cotable as well, I think.
Yeah, I would. I would agree with you there.
Yeah, not not super excited about him.
Who I was getting to, that I am super excited about though is
Samuel Porta who looks to be. I mean, I don't even think it's
a hot take to say Samuel Porta is live for tight end One this
season. I know that probably sounds like
a hot take, but like Literal, the highest scoring tight end
overall in the season is in his range of outcomes.
He's not the favorite for it, you know I'd I'd still take
Kelsey over him for that, but squarely, squarely in his range.
He looks awesome. He's a rookie.
He's extremely highly involved. His 27% targets for route run,
his a dot has been increasing week over week.
So. That's like all systems are go
get on the LA Porter rocket ship.
His ADP is gonna get crazy. He should in resurrection
drafts. He probably should be like, this
is gonna sound nuts. He should be like in the fifth
round or the fourth round, Yeah, I agree.
And he is like he's he's an elite tight end for Fantasy.
He's got an elite tight end role and clearly has good talent too,
so wheels up. And I, I I mean you, you almost
wanna like. Just close your eyes, squint and
call him man. TJ Hawkinson.
I I was gonna say my when I was drafting today, I got to the
point of the draft where I would.
I thought TJ Hawkinson was a good player to consider.
There were a couple running backs on the board.
I liked there as well and LaPorte is Adps way later.
But I was like. I think I should technically, if
I was just drafting purely off rank and not not caring about
when the market was going to take a guy, I should take la
Porta here over everyone else that I'm considering and I I
waited and try to push it and got greedy and didn't end up
getting him. But I I think he goes, I think
he goes before Hawkinson in my like right before Hawkinson,
that is that is super interesting And so like that's
basically, yeah, yeah, it's sort of like what are, what is
efficient, what would would efficient ADP be.
Yeah, So what should we project? Project ADP?
The finish app by the time the contest closes and.
Yeah, I would say in the range he could finish as early as the
end of round three, the 3-4 turn.
That's yeah, that happens when he continues to have crazy games
and he's just cooking and he looks great.
I so clear priority, target and yeah.
In the early going in a in resurrection. 100% Get it.
Get absolutely as much Laporta as you can.
Like I I think that if you have 100% Laporta for a while that's
you're playing optimally. Very very fair and and then I
see. I see every year around this
time I see a post about how gross tight end is they show us
hey this guy cut tree touchdowns Donald Purham and he's tight end
6. And so it is that that is sort
of like important context I think to think true and some of
these guys where you're just looking for roots and you're
hoping that they can get a decent target share, but I'm
not, I'm not this is sort of settling other than the early
surprises that we got this is sort of settling sort of what we
expected. The only one that I'm still then
still a bit surprised that I'm still a bit surprised to see
Darren Waller down down so low here where he does have 21%
target per run, but at that like 65 Ish, Dawson, Knox, Juwan,
Johnson route share, I think that that that's obviously a
clear disappointment. Yeah, I think it's just you've
got he's old, you know and so they're they're trying to limit
his reps that might. To me, I'm like starting to be a
little bit more excited about getting some Darren Waller on my
teams and it's not because I like you're correct in your
assessment that like man, this is not exciting.
We wanted more from this, but I think that the market probably
over corrects on this. And this seems like the kind of
player where, like he's pretty clearly the preferred target for
Daniel Jones. If that offense has good games,
I can really see him earning a lot of targets.
And I'm really, I'm just wanting him for cheap is I I want him
for cheap. If he's going expensive, still
like I'm fully, fully out, but right?
I could see him falling and then I'm gonna end up with some
Darren Waller that that makes sense.
And so I guess that the natural question then is where are you
at? Where where's the point where
you're like, OK, I I think I have to take down while here.
The there's right now the ADP is so murky with with the market.
The way it feels to me is there should be a big old chunk of
wide receivers that are going to move up from that like eighth
round range into like the seventh round.
And I think that eighth round is gonna end up like, like right
around 8th, 9th. And I've only done 2 drafts, so
like, don't don't hold me to this.
These might be some bad takes. I think like the eighth and
ninth round is gonna end up being kind of like another one
of those vacuums that I mentioned where like, it's
devoid of players that people actually think belong there and
it's gonna clear out and leave room for guys.
And so you'll you'll end up with guys that fall there, whether or
not their ADP belongs there efficiently.
It's just like there's there's a void here and we have to draft
someone here. And so I think that Waller will
go there. Most likely if I if I were going
to pull out my crystal ball and tell you exactly what his ADP
does over this tournament, it will fall a little bit at the
beginning. Especially if he has another
poor production game, it will fall, you know, even further
into like the you know. Early mid like hundred 10120, I
could see him even going in like the one 30s if he has a really
bad game and then I bet you he climbs back up and settles
around like the low 90s or so that's that's kind of what I see
sounds like. Would you take would you take
Waller over pits called pits? Damn, that that hurts.
Yeah, probably. Yeah, that's such a sad.
Yeah. What about Evan Ingram?
I probably I probably take Waller over Evan Ingram.
That's another I think. I think it's it's pick your
poison on Pitts Waller. Evan Ingram.
I think it's that one's honestly just like a probably just let
let the correlations be true. So you think those tree are in
the same tier basically? Yeah, I think they're right
around each other. Does that does that sound too
crazy to you? And no I think that that found
that sounds pretty fair and where they all have like pretty
significant downside risk and like we already noted their
concern with Evan 8 with the Trevor Lawrence and the
Jacksonville offense called pits everybody's like keenly aware of
the of the downside risks there and then and then Darren Waller
he has the he has the the kind of like soft tissue injuries
giants aren't very good and but is Darren Waller I think I think
I'd still prefer call pits out of that bunch and but totally I
think that that's totally reasonable and and sort of
rational and. Way to to look at it.
With a player like Kyle Pitts, who's burned so much of the
market so vividly and and he's starting to do it again, you
know, it's not like you haven't gotten a good game from him yet.
To me, that's the kind of player where you try to play really
exploitative on it. And I think that's a player
where you often push it. You just you you need to, if
you're going to draft a lot of resurrection or draft a lot of
these, you know, DraftKings tournaments where they they were
a lot of new one every week. I think you need to get a sense
over a couple drafts of how late you can push Kyle Pitts.
And then this would be more if you're taking like a volume
approach. And then once you kind of know,
like, he doesn't usually make it past 130.
Like I've seen him go to 1:30, but he doesn't usually make it
past 1:30, then you start nailing it right around that
rail. Like OK, if he's ever passed 125
I go crazy here and I just click him every time.
Yeah. I I was saying for myself where
just let sliders slide let him slide.
Don't don't be don't be the hero.
Let him slide and and and and let the let the room hand you
the value don't don't get in the way which just sounds sounds
like pretty much what you're advocating.
So yeah just just to wrap up this chart here I I I don't see
anything super surprising here and we we have some sort of
Colin and grandson John Smith and Julian Hill Hayden Hurst
like there there there's there's some players here where they're
they're playing snaps they're getting some roots but not a I I
guess not super excited to play like it's a it's tight end
remains pretty gross. Yeah.
Ohh, just as a this. This won't reflect super clearly
on this chart since it's all three weeks combined.
But Zacherts finally had like a normal week where you have like
2 targets instead of his usual like double digit targets.
So that that is looking like don't worry, Zacherts isn't
going to bury you with double digit targets every single week.
I can finally breathe a sigh of relief.
And you only had a you only had 64% route share in in that wheat
tree as well, which is a bit interesting too.
Didn't. Didn't need him.
They're kicking the shit out of the Cowboys didn't need Zach
Arts and neither do I. And so just gonna, I don't think
that there's that there's anything particularly new on the
on the tight end chart. Is there, is there any that you
wanted to touch on here? Ferguson got more targets this
week. Even I think he.
I want to say that his route share went up just a tiny bit
this week. He's the only one on this whole
chart that like, looks interesting, right?
He's got 27% targets per route run hit.
Most of these guys you're not going to consider because
there's not on the field enough. But that's the only one where
I'm like, that's a little interesting.
Oh, you know what? I lied.
There's one more. It's Cole Turner.
He's down near the bottom because Logan Thomas was healthy
for the first couple weeks. But.
I was drafting quite a bit of Cole Turner near the end of
draft season because I already had a ton of Logan Thomas and I
I just wasn't so certain that Logan Thomas would stay healthy
for the whole season. And this is, this is one of
those things where it's just like how how is it going to play
out to be this simple? Like how was it this obvious?
But there were, there was the rumblings in the offseason that
Washington is going to run, you know.
The tight ends going to get the Travis Kelsey role.
The Travis Kelsey role, It's Eric Bienni.
He only knows how to use the tight end as an elite role.
And I was like, I dismissed it a little bit, but I still liked
the tight ends there because they were free and I liked Sam
Howell. But I kind of think the tight
end role is pretty valuable on the offense.
So that's that's your 18th round dark throw, Cole Turner.
And then you know. On the previous chart, Hunter
Henry's still going too cheap in resurrection.
I'm sure he'll climb but on this what's interesting about Cole
Turner is so he did get he got 11 targets in 91 area yards but
he's still only run at 56% root share so he was 29% them and
this is weak tree and and weak tree even with Logan Thomas out
and so he's 29% targets per run and so that does tell me that
not only like obviously he he did even in that case he didn't
consolidate to a true degree the the the Reds that tight end but
it is a it's a it's clearly a heavily targeted role in that
offense so very like very very interested in tight end in in
Washington. Yeah.
So now we move to the wide receiver part of the chart, and
we have to acknowledge that Devonte Adams is him.
Yeah, Devonte Adams. I mean, undraftable, right?
Like the Raiders are going to be so bad and he can't, you know,
he'll never be able to produce. Just kidding.
Devonte Adams is among the best receivers in the league.
You know, the guys who are better than him, you can count
on one hand like he's, he's elite, elite.
I mean, this feels like a silly, like there's.
I don't even know why we're wasting time comparing the two,
but like, the only guy that does stuff that Devante Adams does,
Like Devante Adams does some Justin Jefferson looking stuff
and Justin Jefferson does some Devante Adams looking stuff like
that. That play where Devante just
like elevated and went up over the defender and like came down
on his back. It's like I've seen a guy do
that and his name is Justin Jefferson.
Like, of course, Devante's been doing this a long time.
But man those those are some elite receivers.
I mean Keenan Allen also like Keenan Allen just showing that
he can answer the call man when when there is no one else that
they want to throw the ball to. Keenan says give me all of it
and I I think that I think we this this may be the year of
Keenan Allen just with the way that things seem to be playing
out for this charges offense with the Mike Williams injury
and. I wouldn't be surprised to see
Eckler just be in and out this season.
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him not play a ton of
games. Yeah, yeah, that that makes
sense for sure. Where he he's just the the only
true star on the the offense And the one one thing I'm curious to
get your take on is that I see CD Lam here and with only 50,
four, 4% and of the way the targets for at run and so is is
is he is he not getting targeted?
It is. This just so I I subjected
myself to the pain of watching every snap of that Cowboys game
and it was really gross, honestly.
Like you want to throw out the tape game that looked like a
throw out the tape game. They just they it was a trap
game. They looked like they didn't
show up to play what what ended up happening on offense a lot
was. Gallup got more involved.
Gallup finally saw some targets. And also Ferguson.
As I previously mentioned, Ferguson saw more targets.
I honestly, I can't really give you much reason as to why I I'm
gonna call it more noise than signal.
But yeah it wasn't wasn't a good sign to see the Cowboys get dog
walked by the Cardinals and so yeah I I I think I agree on the
on the CD stuff and I saw Dez Bryant on Twitter saying I'm
dead serious about this. I want the Cowboys to hire me as
as a as an assistant, and I want to create ways to get him open
near near the end zone because he's their best player or like
among their best players. And I'd be surprised that we
didn't get like some squeaky wheel weeks pretty soon there
from from a little after they lose, after they lose and they
didn't use them properly. And that seems pretty likely to
me. The other to me, the the thing
that I'm noticing in this Mike McCarthy calling the plays
offense is. Mike McCarthy is not
tremendously bad at play calling, as everyone would have
would have us believe. But he's also not very good, and
he often does. If he if he's getting to the
right answer or like he's doing what what would be correct, he's
going to go too far in the direction of what's correct,
right. So like, oh CD Lamb needs more
targets. 25 sounds reasonable. Like let's throw the ball 25
times or like. Oh, Tony Pollard's our most
efficient back. Let's give him all the work.
It's like, no, no, no, you need to mix in Rico Dowdle just a
little bit or like, oh, you know, we're we're in, you know,
really favorable down and distance situations like we
should run the ball more. It's like no, dude, take take
advantage and pass a little bit. So there there's just stuff
where it seems like I I don't, I'm not gonna say you're you're
expecting an overcoreaction. Yeah, he he he seems like the
prime example of a coach overcorrecting.
And so I would that's just I'm going to make like a note to
myself like pay attention to Cowboys games, see what happens
week to week and see if that overcorrection trend holds on
different aspects. And and try to take advantage of
that for DFS. If that's something where
there's a little little bit of signal to that.
Because I think that he might be a little bit more predictable
and his tendencies as a play caller just from what I'm seeing
that that makes sense for sure. And also interesting here is
Adam Thielen and very high yeah route share for an older player
which is interesting but very clearly in the in the kind of
like we don't if there was a sell high section of the chart
it would be the guys getting lots of points but low weighted
targets per at run and and give given that those those feel like
it's definitely I'm not breaking any news here but definitely
feels like you're pretty comfortable and quote UN quote
sell high. Yeah, the only other guys that I
I think are worth mentioning on this chart because there weren't
a ton of crazy movers here. I mean, other than the guys that
put up some monster weeks like Devonta and Keenan.
But Chris, Chris Godwin here. It does.
It's starting to look like Baker only has eyes for Mike Evans and
I don't know. Again, it's only three weeks.
Could be small sample size. But the way Baker seems to like
to play is he really likes chucking it up and letting
someone make a play. And Mike Evans is, is pretty
good at that. So I kind of feel like Mike
Evans is going to be the receiver you want to own in this
offense. But yeah, that was the only
other. Noteworthy receiver I had on
this chart. Yeah that that makes sense for
sure makes sense for sure and and then I I do notice them DJ
Murr is is in a very kind of like disappointing part where
Ram he's um he's not even getting it even with them how
bad the the offense has been he's not even like really
consolidating down the field that crows and very yeah very
disappointing and I guess he did get he did get six he has been
getting 6 targets week two and week 3 which isn't awful and 130
area yards week three that that's pretty good and but yeah
really really weird usage there and then I mean hopefully if the
the the bears do manage to turn around and better DJ more usage
is part of the story and what definitely feels that feels bad
to have done that you remember that that four or five turn
thing where people were clicking fields and DJ more seems like a
seems like a bad yeah I'd say that's aging.
DJ Moore feels like one of those prime candidates for which you
talked about of Let Fallers Fall.
That's one where we want to. Yeah.
See how low can you go, baby? Yeah, I I agree.
Very last. Sorry.
Last one before we go to the next chart.
Cortland Sutton. I mean, wasn't he he, he didn't
perform great, you know. But he they sure wanted to get
him involved. All the the rumblings before the
season of Sean Payton's making Cortland Sutton watch old
Michael Thomas film. Oh, he's gonna, he's gonna have
the Michael Thomas role. He kind of looks like he might
have the Michael Thomas role. He is super involved.
Man. I I'm a little uncertain of how
I want to play this Denver offense.
I think that the market is also just from what I saw on the two
drafts that I did And so I kind of think that all of the
receivers might be a buy at at where they'll end up going.
I mean Mims was going like crazy early in the the drafts that I
did but I don't know where he settles.
But to me it seems like they might all be mispriced like an
efficient price. It it say Cortland Sutton role
stays about where it is, like he probably is 1/7 rounder or a 6th
rounder and he's he's more going in like the 8th right now.
So, yeah and yeah, very. And so I guess only thing I'm
seeing here is that, so he had a 26%.
And so just adjusting obviously we're looking at weighted
targets per at run in this chart which weights high a dot throws
more heavily than at low a dot, but just looking at normal
unadjusted targets per at run. So he did have 26% in that week
tree but then it was 17% in week, 214% in week one.
And I I do wonder if if maybe we saw just like a one game high
from or like obviously him having these types of games in
his range and and you're suggesting that like he's he
should go in the seventh round like very very fair and but just
to temper expectations a little bit and this this may have been
kind of like a high end game for him and his normal range is
maybe closer to somewhere between 15 and 20%.
That's that's very reasonable. And so yeah let's move on to our
our sort of like they're starters but they're not at
they're not on the field in every snap chart.
And so we touched on Mike Evans and Tyreke Hill as always is the
is the chart breaker and Mike Williams, I know we're we're
leaving, we're leaving Mike Williams in this chart just to
kind of send them off. He was.
He was doing great, man. It was going to be a great
season for Mike Williams. That looked like just the way
that he was being deployed in that offense was was better than
previous years. Very unfortunate to see him tear
his ACL you that guy has had really unfortunate injury luck
but maybe maybe we can consider Nico Collins the the new Mike
Williams kind of a a bigger bodied guy you know similar
similar area of the chart here. Nico been doing a lot with the
with Stroud. You know, being being willing to
throw it up there Tank Dell did, kind of.
Steal Nikko's Thunder a little bit this week, But man, the more
the more I think about that Houston offense.
I'm kind of like I should just have a lot of pieces of it other
than all all the pieces not named Dalton Schultz, right?
Like I should have. Yeah.
Yeah, yeah, definitely. Yeah.
If the market is gonna be slow to react.
And and and and you've already said they're they're they're
print. They're gonna print million
makers. Yeah.
And and definitely feels like if the market is slow to react very
very stockable offense and definitely want pieces of it and
just that one thing that that I think is this it's hard to see
in this chart but very notable is Calvin Ridley is is really
kind of sitting down here. I'm I'm I'm surprised to see him
at only 80 to 85% roots and then sitting behind a 60% weighted
targets per run what we're looking at 12 fantasy points per
game and then after week one week one it felt like OK I I I
faded readily I am going to get crushed and then he's at 14 in
in unadjusted targets per run 14 and 15% the last two weeks and
that is that it's it's that that does make me think that the kind
of two tree turn early turn around prices was extremely
rich. Oh yeah, I mean that.
That was always like you were you were a slappy if you were.
Even even with week one in the books where I'm like, oh God, am
I? Am I going to get roasted here?
But I still was pretty confident that regardless of the results,
taking Ridley a 2-3 turn was very slappy behavior.
I mean like. If you're not paying attention
to the change in draft capital that you're spending on a guy,
not just like the raw number of picks that he moved up, cuz like
of course Madison moved up more picks than Ridley.
But the draft capital that Ridley increased by was the
largest of any player. And what you're saying there it
like cuz I have a lot of Ridley teams where I got him in the
fourth like late 4th. I even think I have one where I
got him in the 5th. That's super early, which is
wild, but. What you're saying when you take
Ridley at the 2 three turn and you run up against me in the
playoffs and I've got late 4th Ridley or I've got early 5th
Ridley, You're telling me that like you've got an extra
player's worth, you've got like an extra, say Kenneth Walker?
On your like, I'm I'm rolling up with a whole extra Kenneth
Walker against you when you're doing your two, three Ridley
against my 4-5 Ridley. Like it's an enormous draft
capital difference. So you're just like you're
you're betting a really thin parlay.
When it gets to be that you're basically what you're saying is
like Ridley gets me to the playoffs but like when the
playoffs happen I need Ridley to suck.
Otherwise, I'm, I'm toast. Or I'm I'm banking on fading
like. 12 Player Parlay Then you know so.
That's why I'm really, I'm extremely price sensitive on
really, really aggressive risers specifically from a draft
capital perspective. But to build on your Ridley
point, you do notice all of the Jags receivers are kind of right
in there. You know Ze Jones missed some
time so but you still have that Jags triangle there.
You got right Calvin Ridley's a Jones.
They're all hanging around that same spot.
And I I wrote about this in My Portfolio post mortem review
article over on Spike week where I said my prediction for how the
Jags offense was going to go was all three players, all three
wide receivers are going to produce usable weeks.
They're going to have be good spike week players.
But that I didn't think any one of them was going to be like a
consistent gotta have it alpha on your team.
And so if that's the way, if you truly believe that that is the
outcome that's going to happen, you should be playing it through
the cheapest one at the highest weight and then you know,
tapering your weights down as they get more expensive.
And I unfortunately didn't execute that perfectly.
I ended up with more Christian Kirk than anyone and then Zay
Jones and then Calvin Ridley. But I'm I'm feeling OK about the
way that I played it it it feels better than how it did after
Week 1. Yeah.
And yeah makes it I, I, I, I would I feel I would feel better
about what's his name Christian Kirk then then after week one as
well and one one that kind of mover on this chart that I
noticed that Trail and Burks is definitely starting to move in
the right direction. Fantasy points not there yet and
but given that we we kind of cited that him returning from
injury. Was part of why he had a slow
start and then him starting to pick up on the targets.
He had 6 targets in week 3 and and did not did not really
perform with them. But definitely feeling better.
Feeling better about trailing Burks now and go ahead I I was
gonna say this this week. He didn't end up with a ton of
targets, right? But I do believe that he
converted a touchdown. Is that.
Am I misremembering? And Carolyn Burks, So he he had
six targets, OK, and but converted that into just five
yards and no, five yards, 30 yards.
And sorry, I was right the first time.
Just five yards, 5 yards in a touchdown, though.
Or just. No touchdown and no touchdown.
Just five yards. I'm I'm attributing a phantom
touchdown to Trail and Burke's apparently welcome.
To stop stacing folks. Yeah, sorry there.
There's only so many stats I can hold in my head.
But yeah, I I mean, it's encouraging to see him move in
this right direction. I am concerned about Tennessee
as a whole, though. Yeah so it's it's a mixed bag
there. It's like yay, the player is, is
moving in the direction that we want but ohh boy the offense is
moving in the opposite direction.
So we'll we'll see how that shakes out.
Yeah, yeah, for sure, yeah, for sure.
And interesting to see Elijah Murr in the kind of like even
though he's his, his a dot has been low and but.
His, his targets have his targets have come up.
I think he got something like 9 targets this week.
And yeah, he's and he's like he's like Zay Flowers on the
Browns, right? They're they're manufacturing a
lot of shorter. Yeah, stuff for him.
Yeah, that. That's that's how.
That's a good way to ruin your appetite.
And say Flowers rolled on the Browns.
I mean they they even involved him in that double reverse pass
back to him. That was that was a fun play
design. It's like a double reverse and
they set him up with like a a screen.
They were like you had three blockers ahead of them, went for
like 10 yards. There's a whole lot of work for
10 yards, man, but I'm sure they had fun installing it.
Yeah, yeah, fun play, fun play. But yeah, I think, I think we've
talked about this chart and is there anybody else screaming at
you? Not really no one that we
haven't talked about in the past weeks.
I think everyone else is like kind of holding.
Okay and. So yeah this this is this is
kind of a more fun chart where yeah it's the guys not playing
that much but you try and pick out the out performers such as
Tankdale who still 65 to 70% root share that that seems
pretty good for a rookie that that's trying to break onto the
team and and and now clearly has broken onto the team.
Yeah I would I would anticipate this trend to continue for him
he you know but before the season there was a lot of news
about the rapport between him and Stroud and Stroud had
specifically asked for him to get drafted and and now that
he's on the field, you know he's making plays and you know
earning targets. I he he seems like a a strong
rising candidate. Yeah.
And yeah, I, I I'm just looking at it here.
So 46% at route rate in week one, then 82% and 84% in in week
two. So in it he he he'll belong in
the starter section pretty soon, right.
He is in the starter section basically in Yeah, in, so he'll
graduate next week. Yeah, and.
Then we have a we have a bunch of players here that aren't that
interesting like Braxton, Barrios and obviously part time
player but getting targeted when he's out there and Sky Murr and
better than it was before Bateman.
I'm I'm officially worried about Bateman.
Me too. I'm pretty worried about
Bateman. I I just don't know if Bateman's
happening, man. It's it's kind of a bummer but
it's like it's been in a while and he's not able to get on the
field over. I I don't Nelson Aguilar like.
I think he, he did a, yeah, he did have a he had an injury in
this game and yeah. And then he was still he he
still he actually he got up to a 74% route chair and but only
still only three targets. So and then he had the hamstring
injury and so definitely, definitely somebody where if I'm
getting them super late I'm still going to take them but
very happy to let a slider slide there.
Yeah, I I agree on that one. The other one that the the the
people may need to know what what are you doing with jsn?
JSN and I think you're definitely if you're take if you
were taking it in in the six rounds and that that doesn't
feel super likely to pay off now and.
And and and your problem here is really that the guys playing
ahead of him have just played so well that it's been hard for him
to crack the field as much as you want.
And then what's also disappointing is that he hasn't
really made the plays that you'd wanna like normally when you
have it, this guy, this rookie coming in that you think is
incredible and and you and you're just hoping or you're
you're playing for this idea. That he'll be the starter by
week four or five what you're looking for is for for him to on
his limited snapshare to play incredible and and I think
unless it truly is this thing where like the the wrist injury
and is holding him back too much they said this is definitely
disappointing and but I think. It's it's definitely a dip I
will I will buy and just because that that's one where I'm
definitely more willing to to take on the risk that I'm just.
I'm just wrong that he's just not as good as I think just
because his his college profile is so good and you can sort of
blame the injury. Yeah, yeah, I I think the thesis
is still like you're you're hoping it's this you know you're
you're you're praying for like the rookie Amanra St.
Brown outcome where he doesn't do anything for a while and then
when all the chips are down he's he's doing what you need.
But I definitely would want to get a discount now relative to
where I was taking him before the season started, just based
on what we've seen and not getting, not getting any of the
flashes yet. Yeah.
Yeah, I agree for sure. And so do you and anybody else
you wanted the, the, the, the to touch on here?
I mean, no, no, not really. I I think the best thing we can
do is hop at a draft right now and and put our takes to the
test. Show the people.
You know, show the people. And yeah, sounds go to the
meeting. All right.
Let me so go ahead and share screen here.
So sorry, we're not as you can see we're not as a experienced
them getting getting our stuff up.
But essentially what we're going to do here is we we like to talk
about our our takes through the lens of a best ball
resurrection, just because it is a.
Are you OK with me sharing or do you want me to kick you off.
No no go ahead. Yeah you you can share here
I've. I'm gonna go ahead and jump in a
draft here for us let me I I should probably zoom in a little
bit I'm assuming here let's or do you do you have the ability
to zoom on on your end or should there we go that looks a little
better and let's let's get that make it a little more readable
So we drew the 102 here. Sorry we didn't give a ton of
warning to to let you guys jump in the draft with us here but
this way you can you can kind of see you'll notice we didn't give
a ton of ADP takes during the chart portion of the show
because we we had planned on hopping in a draft here to kind
of show you when the rubber meets the road what we're doing.
And so here my my priority let's do we have anyone in here.
If you're if you are in the draft with us, it is illegal for
you to not alert us in the chat. But I don't.
I don't know that we have anyone that's.
Okay so. Ohh, we're not on the clock, OK?
And I I've got. I know what I'm taking here.
But I I'm willing to to hear your I'm taking this dude.
Taking. This point Tyriq over CMC yeah.
OK. There's there's running backs
that I really like at the 2 three turn the way that it's
been shaking out. We'll we'll see if it gets to us
in that way but yeah I I tyreke is the 102 feels pretty pretty
comfy to me personally. CM, the argument for CMC is
really strong in that the phenomenon we talked about
earlier with 0RB ambiguity is is less now and so you're just not
as able to get the values on some of those players with
really strong zero RB profiles anymore.
So right, getting that kind of hero RB to hold it down with
Christian McCaffrey in the first is more appealing to me.
Certainly now like I I am probably taking.
I think the way that this first round played out through the 1st
3 is how I do it. Are you still chased for the
105? I'm chased for the 104.
OK, I don't. Dude, there's no way the Bengals
stay that bad, right? Like I.
I refuse to talk. I'm a bit worried about the
about the Burrow injury. The way I see it, the 8000 down,
like they just haven't been as aggressive.
How long is that gonna linger though?
You you got like 3 weeks like because you gotta remember this,
this tournament doesn't start until week 6, right?
That is true. So I I think that's a way to
play the market over reactions Like if they're like for example
if Cooper Cup makes it back to us here like my goodness, you
better believe like I'm willing to risk that.
You know like yeah, he he should be all the way back.
That's one where earlier today when I did I jumped in my 2 just
to kind of get the lay of the land.
His ADP, I think was 27. And I I got the 11 and the 12
hole in my drafts and I was like, I'm not going to take him
here at the 1-2 turn even though I would take Cooper Cup over
Calvin Ridley like, whoever. Quick KKK like I God, I hope
that name is not a illusion. Yeah, but this dude's A crayon
eater for sure. Like Calvin Ridley at 13.
You're bad, bro. Like, sorry, sorry not sorry.
But Cooper Cup there at 16. That makes sense.
Oh, by the way, like this elite quarterback in the second round
nonsense too. Like, shouldn't people have?
Like, how many times do we have to teach you this lesson?
Old man like this shit was is not going to age well.
Like, we already We're starting to see that the gap between the
elite quarterbacks and the rest of the field that we saw last
year was more of an anomaly than the norm.
And here we go, we're just taking two quarterbacks in the
second round again with incredible players on the board.
Like, this is Looney Tunes Banana Town to me.
Like taking Jalen Hertz and Pat Mahomes in the second round is
not the business, not not a business that I'm gonna be
investing in. And can you you see that you see
that that that thing be ohh no you're already on it.
Never mind what's the? Isn't there one?
Where isn't the button next to the X?
Doesn't that make it bigger? Ohh, it does.
It does pop the draft board out well.
OK. What if you shared that one?
That one might. Maybe after we make this pick
here that does that does sound like the move.
Who who do you like here, here at the 2 three turn?
I'm gonna, I'm gonna go by position here, let you look at
the running backs. Are there any running backs here
that you're really interested in clicking at the 2/3?
No, I'm not this, this feels, this feels very uncomfortable
and yeah. I wow.
I wanna take Wilson, but that doesn't seem right.
No, no. For me I I'm like maybe DK.
I'm also maybe just Mark Andrews and and fuck.
It, Yeah. Let's do Andrews, Andrews,
Andrews, Then I I think that's the play, honestly.
Yeah, because the receivers are the it's they're all same.
Same but different, right? Yeah, agreed for sure.
And the the other stuff that. Booms we missed out on ETN.
That's that's what I had been alluding to when I said there's
running backs that I really liked the 2-3 turned.
But we'll we'll see who who falls to us here.
So big Poppy takes Josh Jacobs with his first pick.
Really. What I'm what I'm thinking here
is I I want receiver. Yeah.
Let me Riddle me this is because, like, I'm kind of
tempted to play into The Jets doing something different at
quarterback. Like, like by we.
Want you want to fight a dip on a Garrett Wilson?
I kind of think so. Like how?
How far can he dip, though? Because.
Because we could let A fall or fall, but I don't think he makes
it back to us. Not other guys I don't consider
would be like Debo or Metcalf here.
I'm really not taking any of these running backs.
I don't think it's. Yeah necessary here I think.
Yeah I think Garrett Wilson I think you you you did a Sean
Siegel on me there. I've I've we just kept on
talking until the pic was done. I I think that's my MO though is
just keep talking for way too long.
Let's let's pop this out and we'll do the full draft for it
here. Is that a little little better?
Yeah, I think that that is much better and we can, let's see if
I can zoom on this a little more, yeah.
So the much better. Much better.
So I don't, I don't think we have anyone in here that's
watching this stream. I don't No one no one's
identified themselves. So I'm just I'm gonna like for
the most part put cards on the table just, yeah, so we can talk
through. Yeah.
Everything. What I'm looking at here is I'm
praying to God because we already have the bet on The Jets
doing something that's an alternative, Zach Wilson.
And so if we get briefs at 47, we're Windmill jamming it in.
The other one that I'm just taking all the way to the bank
here is Kenneth Walker. I'm super, super excited about.
The other one that I'm taking here is DeAndre Swift.
I'm not he's not going to make it back at 70, so I'm taking him
here at this turn. Yeah, stay hydrated, says how is
Garrett Wilson still this valuable to go this high.
And So what I would say is you need to think through the range
of outcomes. It's not that Garrett Wilson,
right now, with Zach Wilson throwing him the ball, is a 2-3
turn, but Garrett Wilson with literally.
Like Garrett Wilson with Joe Flacco.
I'm like, super pumped about this price, right?
Garrett Garrett Wilson with Joe Flacco.
I'm ecstatic. I'm probably taking Garrett
Wilson over like Devonta Smith with Joe Flacco.
Taking him over Chris Olave with Joe Flacco.
He goes back to Bing and at the early second, second round,
yeah. So I'm I'm just looking at like
give me some competent quarterback and that's how the
Garrett Wilson bet pays off here.
The other thing is like we did, we did see Garrett Wilson have a
couple games with Zach Wilson last season.
It wasn't, you know, it wasn't always Mike White and and Joe
Flacco and the other cast of characters that they rolled out
there. He's just such an elite talent
that I'm willing to just bet on the upside there.
You know, like DK Metcalf. Think, think about the way the
way I frame it is. Think about it in this way.
What's the How much could DK Metcalf outperform this ADP?
Not not very much like What about Devo Samuel?
How much could Devo Samuel outperform this ADP?
And Debo, actually quite a bit if I I agree more more so in the
single week range of outcomes, right?
Like Debo's single game ceiling is absurd to where like, even if
he doesn't compile crazy stats for you over the course of the
season, you're you're looking at you know he he does enough in
single games where it when the money really matters.
Right and and you also you have to like the the the contingent
value for Debo is is is just correct correct and.
And I mean he he he's probably the other strong candidate for
who he could have taken. But like you said, DK Macup,
Seyquan Berkeley and Lamar Jackson, Ram, Andre T Higgins.
And that's funny. And those players are not a
those players are not compelling Pixie either.
So it's super, super flat. And and and we've sort of just
gone for the for the upside. Yeah that's I mean that's I'm
I'm always gonna build my teams around like trying to capture
the crazy ceiling where I'm I'm just winning the tournament now.
Ohh. DeAndre Swift goes one pick
before us. That is very brutal.
That's been happening to me all day.
I'm pretty sad. So, I mean, it's right, Najay,
right? So at running back it's starting
to be a little scary. I'm definitely interested in
Kyron Williams. The other picks I'd be
considering here would be like a George Pickens.
But that offense isn't great. We oughta drafted Kyron
Williams. Do you do you think Kyron was
reasonable there? He has a yeah, it is somewhat
reasonable and. I think if we were just me
drafting that that's probably just as a smidge rich for me and
but you know when you when you draft with somebody else also
good to get players that they're interested in and none of the
players were screaming here either and I think who is
interesting would be Jovante just because it is the Week 6
tournament OK and but. I also I don't see everybody
who's yeah, I think, I think you're right.
We'll get some receivers that that could come back to us that
I'm happy with and running back it does dry up a little bit
where a lot of the the guys that we're more interested in, they
they definitely are, you know coming off the board a little.
Earlier here where this must run out here.
We missed the put off on the running backs were super
excited. The draft that yeah this this
run out of Kenneth Walker, Joe Mixon, James Cook, Brisal
DeAndre Swift was less than ideal for us cuz those those are
all guys I would have clicked and I I do think that we we
probably got the beginning of another tier rather than getting
the end of this last tier which is a little unfortunate.
Yeah, but Kyron definitely like easily strongest role there And
of the players with the really high yeah, unexpectedly really
high work share, he's definitely the strongest case to hold on to
it and. Even I think even just his his
passing then work almost like is almost worth this pick.
And then Jovante. He just hopes that as he ramps
up, back up from the ACL tear and that given that it's Week 6
and on, just just becomes one one of those players where we,
we don't see it now but in the later weeks in the season is a
very strong pick. Yeah, I am.
I'm a little less bullish about Jovante than you because I I
kind of see that this, this split in the backfield, I don't
see it changing very much regardless of his health.
And so really, I think what you're playing for then is
you're playing for increased efficiency.
You know, both, both increased efficiency from Jovante himself
and from the offense. And so I don't know that that's
the bet that I'm super excited to make.
But when I, when I consider the alternatives that are going
around here, like Ohh, who is this rat bastard from the 12
taking Tua here? I mean, this is a good price for
Tua. I was just really hoping he'd
make it back to us. This guy's taking him entirely
unstacked. Ugh.
I'm not a fan of, not a fan of the drafter and the 12 here.
Tree strikes and you're out. Yeah, but that's that's a big
bummer for me. Was really my my plan here was
we get to it here and then after the turn, they're they're a
bunch of wide receivers. I like who's going to be happy
with whoever the field gave us. But it's fine.
We'll we'll navigate around that the the one thing that I'm
really considering here is I need to open up some stacking
options here. Like we've got a back stack with
Stafford and back stack with Russ available here getting
getting some major receivers with them.
So I'm keeping you know that's that's available.
But I'm definitely prioritizing pass catchers that increase my
optionality now. Yeah, George Pickens making it
all the way to 67 seems interesting to me.
I mean, the offense looks bad, but he looks like a pretty
interesting player. I do know that going back and
forth does turn my my overlay off, so I wanted to get back
here and refresh in time to get my overlay up.
And I've got a couple different guys here that I like.
Not really interested in any of the quarterbacks at this point,
really just looking at wide receiver and running back.
Is there anyone here that you have a strong preference for?
And it doesn't feel strong. And so Mike Williams out at
Drake London definitely feels like you're getting the bad
season here. Yeah, let's Scroll down a
little, Jerry. Judy feels very good here
actually. OK I'm.
I'm definitely Kirk over Judy but I would I'd be willing to
and and Kirk does have the higher eighty piece but I I'd be
down to double tap that. Yeah, that sounds good.
Just because I'm like we talked about earlier, I'm, I'm
comfortable playing it through Sutton as well.
Not, not that I think that you know, he's a better player than
Judy. But if if the market's gonna
give me Sutton so much cheaper, I'm down to tend to oblige.
I mean they're sort of cheap enough that you can you can
double stock here. But who who would you be taking
instead instead of Judy here? Probably not.
I'm not terribly interested in anyone.
Dotson I think is is going to be a good follower to just let let
him fall. So yeah, Judy is definitely the
most appealing receiver here. JSN is like tempting but I I'm
going to let him fall. I'm actually.
I'm pretty interested in Montgomery actually.
I'm I think no I'll I'll do Judy here.
I'll see if we can get Montgomery to fall because of
the injury. But just the way that that
offense they've kind of they tip their hand and they're I think
that when Montgomery comes back healthy he's going to he's going
to take enough of the role that he's valuable and and that he's
frustrating for Gibbs managers yet I'll I'll give us a quick
recap here So we're through 7 rounds started with Tyree kill
Mark Andrews at the two or Tyree kill from the two spot Mark
Andrews Garrett Wilson at the 2. Three turn get sniped by one
pick on DeAndre swift big bummer there.
Had to settle for Kyron Williams at the 4-5 turn followed it up
with Javante Williams. Then at the 6-7 turn we double
tap receiver with Christian Kirk Jerry Judy.
So I think that we're we're not behind the 8 ball on receiver.
We're definitely looking for you know Garrett Wilson to get a
quarterback upgrade to feel good about that pick and the price
that we took him at. But I think that's pretty
squarely within the range of outcomes As far as our
quarterback options here. My goodness the guy from the
four hole is unhinged. Taking Justin Fields at 52
unstacked and then taking Gino Smith to stack with Tyler
Lockett but taking Gino in the 7th where I've seen Gino falling
you know well into the hundreds today in the couple drafts that
I did and it's a DP is is also around there.
So we've got we've got some live ones in in the room for sure.
I don't think that's particularly good to take Gino
here in the seventh round. I'm not sure what the fuck is
going on with quarterback in this draft.
We've got Gino going at 76. You know two are going unstacked
at 61 This this price is reasonable for two of us taking
him unstacked. The Kirk Cousins price seems
reasonable to me here. Like he definitely should should
be moving on up. But this guy's gonna be hurt and
bad for receiver in the three hole starting DK Metcalf,
Marquis Brown, and those are his only two receivers through
seven. I think he's gonna be in for a
pretty bad time. Here, yeah, that makes sense.
And what we have that we did get a question in about a while ago
and. How are we looking at late
season, late season matchups in the tournament?
Now we have more information on which defenses are good.
I don't. I'm still mostly ignoring
defensive matchup stuff just because it you're still talking
about like 4, like that's 3 1/2 months away like.
And we only have three weeks of data.
Like, it's so hard to to say hey, we know which defenses to
avoid now and that that is just not it's not a factor for me.
Yeah, I agree. It's you.
You don't actually fuck. La Porta goes here at 98.
That was who I was going to suggest at 95, just being too
greedy on La Porta. Just I just need to start
aggressively taking him. He's going to rise so much,
very, very bummed to have zero Laporta through three drafts.
But to go back to the defense thing, you don't actually know
what defenses are good. You know, we think we know what
defenses are good. But number one, it's only been
three weeks. We, you know, the Cowboys were
the best defense to ever play in the National Football League
through week two, you know, So we just don't know what defenses
are good. The only thing you know is what
two teams play each other in Week 17, and that is the way
that you should play this game. You don't know anything.
None of us know anything. But we do know what the NFL
schedule is, right? I mean, within reason, like,
right? Maybe Maybe another game gets
canceled, maybe an earthquake happens and swallows the the
ground hole, but yeah. You wanna?
Yeah. So and now actually we're still
not interested and. So JSN would be the eight round.
None of none of these running backs are ones that I'm right
very interested in here. I think that by taking our two
early ones we kind of put ourselves in a position to where
we can can wait on running back and just attack the position
through volume. I think this is you know this is
pretty reasonable for JSN. The other thing, yeah this is a
pretty micro thing week five players should increase in value
because yeah you're they don't have a buy technically in this
tournament. So yeah I'm I'm willing to to do
bets on JSN here. We do have now now that we miss
Laporta, who I was really hoping to get Andrews, Laporta as my
tight ends and just be done at the position.
I'm not really super interested in Kyle Pitts as far as
quarterback is concerned. We've got Lawrence in the 90s.
Yeah, let's take them. I think it's reasonable.
Yeah. We also have that first week of
the playoffs correlation. And then there's a couple other
good matchups here that I actually like as far as like
getting players and not not specifically talking about like,
oh, I'm happy to target Tampa Bay or Carolina.
Like the defenses, I'm happy to target these teams because of
the optionality they give me in the draft, what players it opens
up for me for stacking purposes, just to to talk it through while
we're on the clock. Are there any of these receivers
here where you would be considering taking them over,
Lawrence? No, I don't think so.
I think it's 10 now enough that receiver here that Lawrence is
the right pick. And I think it's also
interesting because given we sort of like we showed some some
concern about Lawrence at the start of the draft.
Would you mind scrolling back to quarterback and just see who we
we took, which quarterbacks we took them over and?
So we took him over to Sean Watson, over Anthony Richardson,
Daniel Jones, Zach Prescott, Jared Guff.
But that feels right. He still, it still feels like
Trevor Lawrence should go ahead of that.
That's here because like we did know some concerns and that he
hasn't played very efficiently and but we are only true two
weeks. Yeah, I think this was for me,
this was always where he should have gone, just like in this
range with these kinds of pocket passers.
And I I always thought that Tua should be going where he was
going. And so the market is finally
gonna get that right. It seems like Tua and Trevor
Lawrence are gonna complete their Freaky Friday ADP swap
that they they did over the summer and they'll now they'll
be more appropriately priced. I mean I guess I'll just I'll
fucking mush myself all the way here.
But two it should be like probably a fourth round pick if
you're not taking you know like let's let's go back and look at
the board. So like I think this group of
quarterbacks, Hertz, Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, I'm willing to
move Herbert up with Lamar in that range.
That should probably go like right here like right where this
Jonathan Taylor, Derek Henry, TJ Hawkinson, like where your pick.
I probably still take Kenneth Walker over them.
So I think they're like back of the third beginning of the
fourth type picks. And I think that Tua should be
right here with Justin Herbert. I think Justin Herbert and Tua
shouldn't really go all that different from each other.
And in fact, like you probably could say that Tua should go
right with Mahomes hurts Allen Lamar.
I don't think it's that crazy. Like, I know it sounds weird, I
know we have to unanchor ourselves from past prices, but
I think it's right. Pretty sure that's correct.
Yeah, the 12 hole exists. The 12 hole exists on this earth
to tilt me. This guy's out here drafting.
I'm just gonna be blunt, 12 hole.
If you ever end up watching this stream, it's nothing against you
as a person, but you are drafting like an idiot.
You're taking all my players that I want, but you're taking
them like multiple, multiple rounds earlier than they should
go. And so it's just tilting me.
Like Luke, Musgrave probably shouldn't go at 108, but he's
someone I'm super excited to get.
Like at 143. Hunter Henry shouldn't go at
109. Someone.
I'm super excited to get it. You know 146, I hate you. 12
hole. You're my my mortal enemy now.
So we chase stats, then we, then we we make blood.
Blood enemies for yeah. Then we then we tilt our faces
off. Blood vendettas, yeah.
So and so and we're sort of balanced here true, true non
rounds which does give us like a little bit of sort of option
optionality and as as we don't we don't necessarily have to
pick a certain position. Yeah, I'm gonna, I'm gonna give
us a little more time to decide on this here because I think we
have a couple tough decisions based on who's left on the
board. We'll just look at QB just to
like see what's still available. And so for me, I'm in this, I'm
in a spot where I basically wanna push QB and just like take
the followers. Yeah.
And so I'm really more so interested in in running back in
wide receiver here. Out of these running backs and
wide receivers, is there anyone that's very interesting to you?
I think Dubs is pretty interesting.
Yeah, that's the one that stuck out to me as well and and then
I'm gonna throw out a name that's probably too early and
but I think we'll be too we'll be not early enough is Rashi
rice. I think you're right, man.
You've been trying to sell me on Rashi Rice all offseason when we
were drafting together and. I'll go ahead and, I mean, it's
not even, like, to the point where I need to capitulate yet.
He hasn't done a ton yet, but he's the best receiver on the
team, right? Like yeah, easily, easily and
and then he's in in week one, 2.4 yards for that run.
Week 23.3 yards for that run. We treat a 2.8 yards for that
run and then then his his route share and and weak tree.
Now maybe it was because of the blowout and what it did get up
to 51%. So definitely feels like an
emerging break out there. So we're we're good with dubs
here, yes. OK, here's here's the question.
Do we try to play the ADP game on rice and push him all the way
around or do we just? Just say that he is the best
option here. I mean, the ceiling case for
Rice above all these other receivers is pretty tantalizing.
And do so Rashi Rice. So would be pick 154.
Roshan, Roshan goes. I was.
That was what I was gonna, OK, discuss and so and he's like the
end of the 12th normally but we're getting in the beginning
of the 11th that Yeah, but I wouldn't overtake that even a
tiny bit. OK.
Like. Yeah he's he's the he's the best
ceiling for sure here and and you know what I think we we got
done a favor this last week by him where he didn't convert that
touchdown he ended up down on like the one inch line because
he's probably going higher if he converts that but.
To me, just through the first couple weeks, that looks like
the guy that you want to have in that offense.
I don't see any of the other receivers emerging enough to to
have a role that you're excited about.
But he is. I think the range is widest
because he's a rookie. We've seen the least we have.
We have the least amount of data to you know to know what he is.
And in the limited stuff that we've seen he's he's flashed a
little. So, yeah and yeah, where when he
plays he's been heavily targeted and when he's targeted he makes
plays and then he's a he's a second round drop pick as well.
So and and and and it this doesn't start the week 6 as
well. So like to me I I I'm obviously
maybe a little bit too bullish, but to me it feels like we got
the, the the chief starting wide receiver, best wide receiver in
the 11 rounds. Yeah, I know you're you're
right. This is this is where the the
ADP value goblin comes out of me.
And he's like, oh, but if if you liked Rashi in the 11th,
wouldn't you love him in the 12th?
It's like, yeah, you would, but like, what are you really?
There was if my if Roshon had been on the board still there
that was gonna be pushing for what I was gonna push for Yeah.
Yeah. And and and that would've been
that would've been a hard argument to to resist and but
definitely glad we got glad glad we got Rushy there for sure and
some of these picks like it is interesting where you see like
Odell back home. Josh Josh Palmer 126 is that's
just funny man. Pat Ryerman in the 11th that
does I I I'm definitely happy that we took Rice.
But Pat Ryerman in the 11th that that does seem like
inefficiently like low I. Don't think it's that
inefficient. I think like 10th I guess like
where he went in the 11th. He he's like middle of the 11th.
I don't know, 10th, 10th seems kind of reasonable to him.
The offense is bad, yeah. He he he hasn't been.
I think we're just anchored a little bit too much to his
previous price. I I think like so this pits
price I think is about correct. Yeah this La Porta price is not
correct. It should be a lot earlier.
This Ingram price is not correct.
It should be later. This Goddard price is not
correct. It should be later the kill you
think Goddard should be later than 87?
Yeah, yeah, I don't. I at tight end, what's happening
is the people are trying to draft guys because they're like
their wish casting that Dallas Goddard's going to be this elite
tight end and he's not. Dallas Goddard is Hunter Henry.
You know, like show me the difference.
You know, like there isn't a difference.
He's just on a better offense, but he's less involved, like.
I don't care. Like get out of here with your
expensive fancy Hunter Henry. Like I'll take later Hunter
Henry. He's not good either.
Like I know that early in his career we were excited about
like him potentially being like a really good player.
If you've this is this is a watching ball take.
So like huge grain of salt. Probably not worth listening to.
He's looked bad with the ball in his hands.
He looks like a slow, lumbering dude.
Where? It's.
Not a guy that they should be forcing the ball to.
He seems like, I I don't know. To me he seems like he should be
like a Jason Witten type of tight end.
Like, uh oh, my primary options are covered.
Better check it down to Goddard. Yeah, that is fair.
He's not his. His yards were targeted.
I've never really been that high and that somebody pointed out he
is 28. So you wanna?
I think we need running back here.
I am really not into clicking AJ Dillon, though.
Let's see who or Deodor running back soon.
I've got one that I want, and OK, who do you want?
I I would do Spears here, yeah, Yeah, agreed.
I man the the Derrick Henry Snapshare is super, super
concerning to me. I don't.
I don't think we're getting Derrick Henry this season.
I hate to break it to to people. I'm pretty sure that what we're
going to get is like the player formerly known as Derrick Henry,
he'll still have the big runs and break off a couple things.
You're not going to get the volume you need for Derrick
Henry to get there. Plain and simple.
The the days of him getting like high 20s touches is true.
You know well and truly over. So great point, Jameson.
The week starts in Week 6. Clear.
Probably a clear Miss Price
here. Where is where does Jameson go?
Is he available? He off the board?
Yeah, he is off the board. But I I do agree.
I took him in an earlier draft today.
So there there was a running back that I was considering
here. It's, it's much there, a
quarterback on tight end. We can.
Let's do Russ here, actually. And let's do Russ.
That, yeah, good, good call. Thank you.
Completes our double stack with Javante Judy.
So now we we can stand pat at quarterback here.
Just I'll I'll review our team for the the audio listeners.
Here at quarterback we have Trevor Lawrence and Russell
Wilson. Running back we have Kyron
Williams, Javante Williams and Tajay Spears.
At wide receiver, we have Tyree Kill, Garrett Wilson, Christian
Kirk, Jerry Judy, JSN Romeo Dubs.
Rashi Rice and then at tight end holding it down for us is Mark
Andrews. So and we need so I do.
I did notice that we did. We did stock our Our quarterback
buys. We did.
We did in fact do that. So I guess we are taking a 1/3
quarterback here especially. So this is a this is a nitty
micro thing, but because we have fewer regular season weeks.
Eating a zero at you know like, yeah, eating a zero at either
onesie tied Ender Quarterback becomes worse.
It was never ideal before to eat a zero at a onesie because you
you did two guys on the same buy.
But we'll we'll end up needing to take a third quarterback here
and so we have we have a couple good options that I like late.
I I have some some sneaky stuff we'll we'll just talk about it
openly if someone wants to snipe me on this.
So Stroud just went Yeah, that feels like a great pick.
It it does. The 12 hole is just continuing
to to hurt me. I I think.
I think it's a bad practice to take 3 quarterbacks here when
you've taken to. I think that's not great.
Yeah, it's it's it's some great picks, but a bad team.
Yeah. Yeah he he has his wide receiver
5IS Jaden Reed which I like Jaden Reed but wide receiver
four is Adam Thielen. Wide receiver three is Cortland
Sutton like and and this guy has you know Christian Kirk diet
Christian Kirk that he took 13th overall and we we got Christian
Kirk in the 6th so right I I'm just salty I'm gonna lay it on
the 12 spot thick tonight. This guy's not pulling any
punches. The way I I think we have to
play this is we we know that we need one more quarterback so one
of these is a quarterback spot and then we are running back,
running back, running back tight end.
So our our draft is we got boxed in a little bit and like
positional need what we have to take here.
I I don't know if you disagree at all and well, I I I agree
with your point about needing the third quarterback and and
then and how many running backs do you think total 6.
I think 6 total. OK.
And so we have SO2682, is that what?
No, no, it's 3672. Yeah, it'll be at 3672.
And yeah, not a, not a, not, not our, our, our finest them.
Yeah, we, we we didn't want it to go in needing to pick who we
need to pick. But sometimes, sometimes.
That is how it goes. For me, I'm.
I'm pretty happily putting in Shuba here.
Yeah, sounds good. I was.
I was strongly considering him last time, yeah.
Our our other quarterback options, I think it's probably
just fine to go ahead and do. To Stafford here and stack him
with Kyron. I don't don't hate that at all.
Go back to running back for a second.
Any interest in in Jeff Wilson? I think it's thin.
If we are gonna take him, I'd rather do Stafford here and then
just OK, OK, just get to Stafford.
Next. All right, so our our
quarterback problem has been solved.
We've got Matt Stafford. Our our playoff stacking is
looking a little light. We do have some good stacking
with Cuba and the Jags here. We've got We've got a little bit
for Lawrence. Ideally we'd like to find
something for, you know, our other quarterbacks here to get
some bringbacks, although I don't really anticipate getting.
A New York Giants player, cuz I don't think we're taking another
wide receiver to go with to have a bring back for Stafford.
So that I was just gonna be it is what it is and I don't really
see us getting a charger to go with Russ and then our our
preferred tight end of Hunter Henry is gone.
So I don't think we're getting that.
Where did that, has Rico Dado gone in this?
I assume so. I don't believe he has.
He's he's gone later. Yeah.
So that's what I would be, yeah is obviously like a, even at
this point, super strong pick. Yes, because he's got a roller
and then the the the backfield is super valuable.
This is hill gone, so we're we're 4 running backs here.
The other ones I'd be considering.
I mean, this is maybe where like we start to get into the Kiante
Ingram territory. The, the there, there's there's
a couple options. This is what I'm starting to to
think is going to be the right play.
So we've got round 16, seven and 18 left, yeah, and.
We do. We do still need a tight end.
So yeah, let's let's kind of pick through here.
This is fine. This is whatever.
It's not super exciting. I don't think we can even
justify Dolsich at any point. I think he's, well, he's on IR
right now, right? Yeah, but it he'll he'll be
back, you know before too long in the once this tournament
kicks off. Who's interesting?
K Dotton is is interesting now that we sort of like have a bit
more information that's helpful like ohh we we have this 78%
root share like we're living in a reality where Baker Mayfield
is making the offense look solid.
We do have the Washington tight ends too.
So I I think the way that we play this is tight end is our
last overall pick. And so we just do running back,
running back on this turn, get the guys that we want.
Yep. And just take whatever's left it
tight in, because we're, you know, if this team isn't using
Mark Andrews score for the majority of weeks, it's probably
not going terribly well for us. Yeah, I am, I guess sad when I
don't feel on that FFPC because I do love my Yeah yeah, tight
end in the Flex. I'm, I'm gonna.
Sleep poorly tonight, knowing I have 0 Laporta through three
resurrection drafts. That feels it feels so bad.
It feels like such a misplay to me.
Like, yeah, I'm just all right. I I'm making a decree for myself
if Laporta is there in the 7th, I take Laporta like, pretty much
regardless of who's available. I mean it it would have to be
like 2 for me to not take Laporta in the 7th that that
that is good. I think that's a that's a
helpful like sort of rule of like because like obviously what
you're coming against here is a scenario that you think because
of the the information we have we have a pretty good idea that
Laporta is like is an extreme value at in all of the early
resurrection drafts and hopefully will only go higher.
And so like how, how high do you push that and and where you're
sort of like coming where you're sort of drawing the line now is
like any I want to pick the 80, I want to pick them at a point
where I'm going to get an 80% of the time.
Yeah, yeah. And the the other way that I
think about it is I'm going to go back and show this little
thing because this is super useful for me.
This effective draft capital tool tip.
I use this. A lot in my drafts, especially
the longer a tournament has gone on and the more ADP has moved
this this is as close to cheating as you can get because
it's basically telling you what the entire field has paid as the
price for the player. And so then you can know if you
are getting an advantage or a disadvantage on that player at
the cost you're paying relative to the field.
And So what I'm going to start doing is getting a lot of my La
Porta in and and what I know I'm going to see is I'm going to see
this effective draft capital number scream up for La Porta
where you're you're just going to see him rise so much that
you're getting. You're going to have a large
advantage over the field when he's going in the fourth round.
Would you mind Don't just scroll into the running back.
So Deon Jackson? No.
Todd Chandler? No.
Down to Foreman? No, you're strong.
No quarter of Patterson. And so, yeah, those feel like
the strongest picture is Kiante. Yeah, Ingram.
You like Ingram over Brita and they're they're sort of the the
same, I think. OK.
Like and sake one, he does have that high ankle sprain, but I
think by Week 6 we'll be back pretty close to 100%, OK?
I'm I'm always willing to bet on a high ankle sprain.
There's mushing. Mushing a player.
Yeah. OK, so so you wanna meet?
Ruda, then Yeah, they they're both bringbacks for us.
But this is a bringback with our quarterback.
So I think I so 100, so way more valuable.
Then I I wouldn't say way more valuable, but it is more
valuable, right? The the correlation will be a
little a little bit stronger to have it be quarterback to
opposing team running back than it would running back to
opposing team wide receiver. It's like we're talking about
like microscopic differences. It probably doesn't matter too
terribly much. For me the thing that that made
the decision Brita is the high ankle.
Having the information on the high ankle sprain on sake one.
And I think gosh, like if you look historically at high ankle
sprains and like what probability the player missing
more time than expected or or not playing a full complement of
snaps for the rest of the season.
Like, I think, I think you're going to find that.
I think it's a pretty good bet to have Brita at this price.
I want to say that I'm 100% Brita right now through three
drafts. And so just that, just to play
devil's advocate a bit, there's a an ESPN article now with the
Giants say that Berkeley is day-to-day and he could play in
week four. Yeah, I mean he was always
reported as day-to-day. They all like they said he could
have gone last week, but I'm I'm more of the opinion that like if
this truly was a it's either a misreported injury it wasn't an
actual high ankle or if it is a high ankle, that's like the not.
That Mal you think that the Giants are basically doing
malpractice and like, makes even more interested in in burrito?
I just think your risk of reinjury is probably pretty high
for a guy coming back that quick from a high ankle and like this
is, this is like starting to talk about stuff that we should
just leave to the doctors. But just he or me for a little
bit. The mechanism of injury for a
high ankle sprain is like way closer to a fracture than us.
You know, like it's pretty bad. Like a high ankle sprain's
really bad. You have the ligament damage and
then you also have like micro fractures around where the
ligaments are attaching to bone. So it's pretty, pretty pretty
serious, you know, like it's not high ankle sprain, like calling
it a high ankle sprain is underselling the severity of.
The It's a misnomer. Yeah, it it should just be like,
yeah, the guy's leg got caught in a lathe, but we turned it off
just in time, is what a high ankle sprain really should
should be. His leg got caught in a what a
lathe. I'm sorry, I'm LLATHEA lathe.
I don't know. Am I not pronouncing that well?
I'm from Ireland, so I I don't know what that it's like a piece
of of heavy machinery, like like you just mushed his fucking leg.
OK, yeah, that doesn't seem helpful for an NFL player.
It's it's a bit of a gross exaggeration on my part, but I
was trying to paint a vivid picture here.
And. So who are the Obviously quite a
few tight ends of having gone there since we set up that
queue. Yeah, I think our guys are still
there though. Okay got all our favorites.
Let's take a look at our playoff view here.
So week 17, we ended up with some actually not bad week 17
correlation here. We've got three games with good
pieces here to like Stafford, Kyron, Williams.
I really like because there's the positive correlation of
being very involved in the passing game and also the
negative correlation of the quarterback running back where
like we've already seen this play out with Kyron where he's
getting all the touchdowns, Staffords underperforming.
So I like this for the potential ping pong effect and then we've
got the the Jags in Carolina here with Chuba as profiling
more like the past catching back.
So in a scenario where the Jags are eating, maybe Chuba is
getting a little more work. Week 16 we've got Taj and JSNI
do really like getting rookies in my playoff correlations just
because that's probably when they should be producing at
their highest. And then let's see our week 15
and we got a little week 15 here too.
So we're as far as our correlation, we ended up doing
okay this draft capital is going to be all wonky right now with
Adp's being not solidified. So I don't.
Really care much about makes sense.
Now I just want to I am. Shit fit sock he He kidnapped my
family and he told me that he would only release them if we
did a resurrection draft. My my drafts of Drico were so
good this offseason. All of our best ball teams that
we did together over on FFPC are just crushing.
We've got some really good looking ones here.
And now you have to live with the reality of my underdog
drafting. Now now here's I'm gonna throw
some guys in the queue and you. OK, we have 15 seconds.
I'll let you be my random.org here.
OK, so Kate and went Logan Thomas, Cole Turner and Mike
Kazaki. I think it is Logan Thomas.
OK, you like him over Cole Turner?
Yeah, OK. Assuming he doesn't retire.
Yeah, I mean that was a brutal concussion.
Ohh man. Not this is this is what the
people TuneIn for they TuneIn to hear me complain about NFL
rules. And I suck.
What? A what by week did Logan Thomas
have Week 14? We're we're chilling.
OK, OK, I got a little nervous there for a second.
But man, those those head to head hits like that hit that
Logan Thomas took. That's an instant ejection in my
book. You you hit a guy like that.
Sorry. You done?
Go, go. Take a time out.
Think about what she did. Yeah, but that's that's enough
of of my grandstanding. Let's review the team for the
audio listeners. At quarterback we have Trevor
Lawrence who we got just before pick 100, Russell Wilson in the
one 40s. They do have the same buy
though, so we did have to take a third quarterback in Matthew
Stafford. I don't think that's terrible
given the capital we spent on quarterback here.
Yeah, running back we have Kyron Williams, Javante Williams.
We have Taje Spears, Chuba Hubbard, Kiante Ingram, Matt
Breeda. A little thin, but I'm very glad
that we got 6 running backs here with the way that the rooms
check out. Yeah, I think that's a strong
six, yeah. For taking I definitely had
weaker sixes. If Giovante comes back, we're
in. We're in serious business if he
starts getting more opportunity or being more efficient.
At wide receiver, we have Tyree Kill, Garrett Wilson, Christian
Kirk, Jerry Judy, JSN, Romeo Dubs, and Rashi Rice.
And then at tight end we have Mark Andrews and Logan Thomas.
Got a good amount of playoff correlation 3IN week 17 that we
already covered, we went ahead and added another one to week 16
with Logan Thomas and we added one more to week 15 with Logan
Thomas. So we have at least three-game
stacks in every week of the playoffs.
I do like to see that we've got two quarterback running back
stacks, which is something that I think the field is not doing
at a high enough rate. I did a lot of research on this
in the offseason and played with some models and it definitely
seemed to suggest that quarterback running back stacks,
when done correctly, are a very powerful way to attack large
field tournaments. And so I do think that that's
going to be a trend that we'll see going into next year.
I would certainly anticipate people catching on to that, but
that was that was our resurrection draft.
Drico, you got any, anything you want to add on this one before
we let the people go? No, no, obviously.
Well I said no and now I'm gonna.
Now I'm gonna try and think of something to say and it it I
guess it is, it's always tricky. I think this is my first draft
since since what is that early Well my first draft in three
weeks. So I know I I definitely feel a
little rusty after some drafting and time off and but.
It it in these resurrection tournaments it it it always
makes sense to be thinking about like week week 6 not at not
exactly what happened this week and so like that that that's why
I I I sort of pushed for Javante where as as that ACL tier gets
even better and sort of Rashi Rai is hoping that he's the
starter and I know him. And sack, I I know you're super
excited about La Porta because like it's like okay.
If he's doing this in in true three weeks as a rookie like
what? What could he be in in in in
several weeks time? Yeah, I I honestly think that
you getting me to click Rashi Rice there is probably one of
the best decisions we made in the whole draft.
If we look at what we sacrificed for him, it wasn't much.
You know, Jaden Reed's a player where I would have liked to have
him, but I think I prefer Rashi rice over him.
And we already got dubs on this team.
I I think the Rashi rice, if I had to pick a selection that's
gonna age the best on this team, it's probably the Rashi Rice
one. The other one that that could
age extremely well is JSN. If he does get involved at 95,
yeah, could be really exciting. And if the Jags turn it around,
I was honestly my my biggest disappointments.
Aside from the 12 hole just being just an absolute knob for
us. Here I was, I was kind of
disappointed to not get Zay Jones to come back here.
I thought that would be a really nice little double stack here in
the tenth round with Trevor Lawrence.
Especially because I I laid out my thesis for that offense
earlier. I would have been doing
cartwheels to get. Yeah, I do.
Think if you are going to take a bet on an offense that struggled
on a player on an offense that struggled so far, and especially
if if you're going to do that, you should probably sack that
offense. Yeah.
Where like if you're taking someone like Jerry Judy then.
Mixing Stack or or Jovante, stacking them with Judy,
Jovante. Russell Wilson that way.
And if if that offense actually is better than than we taught,
then then you're you're all sort of bubbling up together.
The same with the Jaguars, where if if you're going to take a
Jag, you're probably better off actually making a bet on the
team rather than the individual player.
Yeah, extremely well put. And that's kind of the whole.
It's really poignant to say that for the resurrection drafts,
because that's kind of the way that I like to attack the before
the season started. Drafts is I want to attack a lot
of the teams that people were underrating.
Like my big targets there were like I really thought New
England was under priced. I really, I wanted to take shots
on Ritter, I wanted to take shots on howl all those guys
going really late because you don't need a lot for them to
outperform their price. And so it it's the same thing
here when we get guys like Lawrence where the market was so
certain he was a, you know, sixth round pick for a long time
over the summer and then all of a sudden we get him at the 910
turn, it's like well the pendulum might have swung a
little too far. I think this is probably close
to efficient. You know, I I would have been
ecstatic, Excuse me, we got him at the 8-9 turn.
I would have been ecstatic if he came all the way back in the
10th. But I I think given the way the
board was at that point and our needs on our our team from a
roster construction standpoint, he was the best pick and and so
I think it was reasonable to take him there at the beginning
of the 9th. Makes sense for sure.
And yeah, I think I think we should probably call it there,
lest we go into into tree hours. I I think this is a great
stopping point. So for those of you that made it
with us all the way through a resurrection draft and many
charts, we appreciate your viewership and hope that we gave
you some valuable takeaways and and things that you can use in
your own drafting, your own, your own fantasy teams.
Thanks for that guys and have a great night.
Yeah, thanks for tuning in.