Our honored guest reject Meyer was trying to do small talk
backstage before the show and I said no we do it all live, we go
live. We've got the crew here tonight
we're running it back from last year.
It's the final night of ship chasings wall-to-wall ffp.
See Playoff Challenge coverage we got And Gretch we got Michael
Leone, Drew dink Meyer joining us Pat crane.
How we doing tonight? Guys Drew good.
You do you remember last year, you know, perfectly reasonably
suggested Rob Gronkowski? And we were also biased that we
like ridiculed. You just all have no, that's the
whole reason. That's kind of weird.
Open run that back. Yeah, irony.
It was a good recommendation. It was good.
Yeah, we should have listened to you.
And I feel like all of us, I can I put out, you know, the promo
tweet for our programme, you know, we're all building up to
this event, like, four hours ago.
We realized no one actually formally asked you to do.
What is going on? A except it's if you guys think
of consuming football content this time of year, right now you
are out of your minds. I just assumed that you were
banned from All Sports books because you're Draymond Green,
props, and now you had to crawl over to the FTC Playoff
Challenge. No, no, I'm simply in the NBA
and prop streets. Trying to find the next Draymond
Green opportunity to bankrupt DraftKings.
The other thing I remember about your appearance last year was
you or sweating your OB 80 this whole time, ya know?
Situation tonight. I thank God and be just finally
stopped trying to break a break. This 30-point barrier got
another prop Victory. So so dank if we were to if you
were to assign a percentage to what level of focus we have from
you on these ffp, see Playoff Challenge rosters relative to
kind of your MBA responsibilities.
What percentage threshold? Yeah I would say it's roughly
the same level of percentage of focus that Mike Lee only gets
for me you know, 30 minutes before established Nonsense.
So, what is that number Leo? Yeah, I feel like that's about
enough information that I, yeah, that's all we were Towing this
week with having a bit. We're like we go live and
pretend we don't realize we're live, and I'm like, Drew Ben
Roethlisberger is in the playoffs.
I'm dead serious. You need to fucking do your
research before the shows, but we didn't, we were my favorite
moment. I think of any podcast, this
whole year was was when dig wasn't sure, if you're messing
with them, when you were Shouting bra, quite right.
That was so good because you played it perfectly Leona.
You just sort of touted him. You're like I know it's gross I
I was not I was not sure until I saw a stat pop up across the
screen the next day for him and then we week 18.
I've told Mike, I was like you could have slid someone in and I
would have fallen for it. Like I feel it.
I'm living on an exotic Ranch that like, then dink was like,
really. Really.
Yeah, the other best part about Brock right?
Has been Dapper lab started minting in a piece of his
catches. So, yeah, you know, everyone is
heard a bunch from us this week. Let's get some fresh takes here.
Where are you at on all these, where you at dig?
Speak on that? What, where am I at on?
What I was excited to find out there, three games on Sunday,
like a three-game slates. Fun know, the things that I've
liked the thing that seems apparent to me is if you can get
the NFC right and it not be Green Bay, you have a huge role
in the field. Like that's that seems to be the
thing to me because it's So congested there and how did
Aaron Jones? Now I'm well I think I think the
best case scenario would be getting away just like Green
Bay, losing early. So if it's Aaron Jones that's
fine or a kicker or whatever like but that's the best case
scenario to get a lot of Leverage and I think if you can
get you know, like if Arizona could make a run or something
like that, like to thank you. Loading up key players on and I
think that's that's runs on every time you take a shot at
what about. So it sounds like you're also
suggesting a coup perk up fate if you're doing a memory
Runners. Let's get nutty, let's get
honey. Wow.
How did this is out there of the 7500 teams out there?
How many do you think? They'd both atoms and cup like,
less than 100? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Intruding Myers. Just come in here guns, Ablaze
fade them, both motherfuckers. Mister mister been here, earlier
in the You were trying to convince this to do 100% advice.
Yeah. That I thought you were all like
yeah you know what is this video?
Dude, you gotta have it. I wouldn't do a hard luck here.
More soft so much on that was we have a lot of teams and we're
talking about like, maybe seven like the fields that probably
gonna Maybe it's 80% of those guys.
And if you match the field there or if you're even like let's say
blow the field a little bit. So your 75% both suddenly you're
not some teams that are that neither of them are in but
suddenly about half your team's don't have one of them and it's
like they do look like, really, really good plays even in short
and, you know, short or long runs kind of a regardless.
And so it's like, do we really want to sacrifice?
You know, half our bill? I think it's sort of a, it's a
12 team roster, right? And you have to Parlay this, you
can't. Or late.
You have to make bets on every game.
There's a lot of other ways to get different.
I do think there's some reasonable justification,
especially for doing like 10 minutes to just lock those guys
in get different in your other 10 spots.
I do think that's viable. And I think we should also
acknowledge most people, I'm just guessing I could be wrong,
most people watching this will probably be building five
lineups or less so we should we should cater to that to that
audience, the hand, Builders the true men and women people would
have softlocked before out of five, literally, the definition
of us. What will I do want to follow up
on on doing scenario here where you like let's say you're going
the extreme scenario where you go Kyler you fade cup, you set
up the bracket. So you know they're fading
they're putting Green Bay in the next round.
What you mean? Tampa Bay wins?
I guess Tampa and Dallas win so then the Cardinals go to Green
Bay, they beat them. You got them at that point.
Kyler might already be in the optimal but the thing that could
ruin it is Josh Allen to the Super Bowl.
Maybe maybe Chiefs to the sublime.
How are you playing the AFC? South are you doing like a New
England upset with that? Or are you just feel like now
you're getting a little too nutty with the bracket?
Yeah, I mean caveat, this is the first time Drew is consider this
scenario and now it's I think I think that's where you get into
the wide receivers from those teams and you hope the one wide
receivers is just the one that soaks up the bulk of the work.
And I mean in that in that scenario, you know, that's
probably, you know, digs are Tyreke, right?
So like I think you could play with the New England upset still
have Tyreke on the other side but I think I think that's the
way to do it. You get away from if you get
away from Devonte and cup, you need wide receivers.
You want the wide receivers from some other, you know, Star team
that could make the big run and kind of replace those and you
get leverage on everything. Pat may be another good place
for us to start tonight. What have been the biggest
movements in your ownership projections from when you
initially launched them on Tuesday?
Why you look that up? I've got a question for you
think how much Leverage is too much?
Leverage is there, is there such a thing?
Well, I mean these contests, these concepts are all like
super top-heavy, right? So and there's and there's going
to be a lot of there's gonna be a lot of duplicates, but the way
that this type of contest is played.
So Really, I think if you're picking, like, you know,
Pittsburgh to the Superbowl, that's probably too much, like,
if you're playing that type of strategy, but I think really in
the, in the NFC specifically, I think there's less of a gap
between the quality of teams then there is in the AFC.
And so, in the AFC, I think, you know, you can play it on a
little bit of the chalky or side, get weird on the NFC side.
And I think you're naturally kind of Creating the leverage
there for you because I really do think like, any of these NFC
teams. Could make, could make a run
with the exception of like Philly.
I don't think Philly can really make it.
Yeah. Deep Run.
But any, any one of the other teams, like, I could see a
scenario where they make a Deep Run and everybody is going to
want to play Tampa Bay. The Rams in Green Bay to be the
teams that are successful and I don't think those teams are
meaningfully better than the other teams where is in the AFC.
The teams of people are gonna want to play.
I do think they're meaningfully better than their opponents.
Especially when you consider from a theme.
Like, if New England plays really well, it's probably kind
of be, you know, a lower scoring type environment that they're
producing all the way through. So, I think that's kind of the
approach that I take What do you guys think about lineups?
Were New England, beats Buffalo, but New England.
Still doesn't get a skilled player in like what are the odds
of that happening? Probably small?
But it seems impossible but it's probably more like that should
be for any other team, right? Like I think it's decently
possible because I was looking at Damien, Harris has snap rates
earlier today and forget what the stat was I think was like
since we gate he hasn't had 50% plus snaps some of that's
because they've been Blowouts and they pulled him and stuff,
but it's like he's not he's not gotten a ton of work in most
games and he's run, really hot on touch, I think it's eight
touchdowns over his last five games.
So, you know, he would get in if he gets in the end zone but it's
just like pretty easy to see him having like, even in a win, you
know, maybe Brandon Bolden scores a touchdown may be
remanded because it's a short touchdown and and Harris has
like or maybe they kick you out your future goals.
Yeah, they think much of me, man.
Play two games. Like this is like a obvious
point but like defense and kicker are playing two games
like YouTube games with the boy. Those think the same thing.
Yeah. So I do think that's a
construction that I'm probably overly like, being like rigid
with. Okay, this team's gonna win.
So I have to have a skill player because I mean we saw that ftn
article like I think the average kicker defense games from like
top teams was like 1.3 1.4. So actually happens like what 30
to 40% of the time. Time then Leone had how tilted
are you going to be if you go to another frigid bills home?
Get a burst of a dreamer they lose like 9:46 like it's fun to
talk about this in theory but the bills aren't going to lose
mine. So would you say we are doing a
soft lock on the bills? That's that makes sense to me,
right? You know let's The market a
little bit. But at the same time we do know
better so we'll soft lock it. Yeah.
Show a little bit of humility. Okay.
Yeah, early, you are you can you bring a sign to the Bills game?
It's a softlock place. We already.
Does that make you want to play more?
I know it's kind of chalky, but more New England, D and kicker
because you can play like the bills to win with digs and like
the New England D and kicker. And then, I mean, let's say the
bills do lose but digs in Ends up catching enough passes.
You might actually still be able to back your way into something
that works with the two games of the kicker for New England or
whatever. And I there are some lineups
that I've seen that. Have you kind of as they like
the bills Fade with New England, soft fade, which seems like
ridiculous but that's, that would be kind of like the full
Galaxy, right on. It's just like what the Bad
Builders do though if you're right and that's why I don't
want to do it, but if you, if you think through like a say,
just a super gross game, that New England wins and then
they're getting two games, either kicker and d.
And there's a lot of projected high scoring games this weekend.
I mean, I'm not saying that's always good idea, I'm just if
we're Galaxy bringing from, but thank saying like and I've seen
it in some of the, you know, stuff that's been spit out, so
Well, the other thing that kind of lends itself to that is even
in a path to Victory. They still are going on the road
to Tennessee, where they could play another 9:46 game, you
know, with the Titans, like their path isn't set up four
points. Like if what if like not a here
could be a chance that none of their skill players, get past
20, ffp, see points in two weeks and then your and then if you've
got two weeks of kicker and defense scoring those defensive
kickers are really popping. Yeah.
Yeah, right. Yeah.
Because you don't actually need to have the kicker or the
defense be the highest scoring New England player.
You just need to go find someone who covers the difference for
you. Yeah, yeah.
It's just like the side of Damien Harris, is the leading
scorer at 18 and the New England D gets 11 because they played
two games that's nine points. Like you could easily have
Darren Waller score 23 in the Raiders D score for and that's
not. That's a 19 exact Gap, you know
that's 10 points you how far can we push?
This could New England playing three games.
Eames the optimal kicker defense in the Super Bowl.
Let's go, let's time stamp this. So when it happens.
All right, so we know where bills or Leone's bills,
allegiances lie. Pat how about back to that
ownership? Steam conversation, what's move?
The most since you first set this, Well, one thing that moved
like the first one I did was like, very high in tight end
percentage like higher than I thought it would come in and I
bumped it down. And then I've since raised it
above where I had it initially and my running back, percentage
is way below where like I would have told you was appropriate on
Monday, but it just seems like maybe it's because we talked to
Shawn Siegel last night, but it does seem like you know, there's
there's more interest In playing like to just two running backs
but I think a lot of people will play just three and I don't
think people will Jam running back because you are there is
opportunity cost of the tight end position.
I think people play, almost three running backs and almost
two tight ends on average and play wide receiver actually
pretty similar to give you a percentage of each maybe maybe
the FPC handled tweeting out that they're thinking about
getting rid of running backs. All together my influence.
How people are thinking about the running back position?
I mean y'all the boomers are going to get tilted in Jam.
Running backs. Not.
Yeah, that's actually might be the reaction.
You can't take away by running backs without a fight.
I'm loading six of them into my life.
What up boy? What about Henry?
And fernette specifically like those guys trip me up because
You could see instances where they should be like 70% played,
or they should be 30, like, just based on their workloads.
I don't know those guys could be jams or you can be.
I brought for net down just like a hair, but I also brought Brady
down because I think people are worried about this weather
stuff. I don't think he'll be that
popular. He was already way under, he was
a much better play last year, and he was way below where I
projected. So I'm being a little
conservative on Brady, but I brought for a night down, I
haven't 43%. Still Still the chalk on
tampabay of Gronk at 30%. It's a gronk's like pretty fun
play Evans down at 17%. So I don't know, I mean this
game time decision stuff, maybe I'm too high on for now but on
the other hand, I know the projections, love them and I
don't think the projections are scared off them.
So when people are looking at that sending their lineups, he's
going to make a ton of sense mix in his sort of steadily climbed,
because if people are getting scared off of for net or Henry,
they're gonna go to mix these kind of the He asked, I mean,
Sean was talking about playing mix and so, you know that anyone
can get on the mix and play, dear can re I have it. 50% of
actually brought him up, which could be wrong, but I just
haven't heard like a lot of you can't play, Derrick Henry, you
know, type, it takes, I think some people are sort of nervous
about it, but probably still playing a decent amount.
I know AJ Brown is going to be popular, but I have him at 37
percent, but I still feel like Derrick Henry will still get a
lot of love. Yeah, I mean, it just with all
of the uncertainty, you know, with running back once you had
that Leonard, fournette stuff in the mix, I mean, Henry, and
Mixon. Those are the two safest clicks,
right at running back the warm fuzzies mix-ins, the most to
get, to use the safest. I think makes no, I was just
telling you like a half hour before the show Pete that
everyone of every building has been putting Henry.
Mix it in and I don't even like either those players but they're
the warm fuzzies. Yes.
Yeah. Ones.
Mix. It doesn't give me the warm
fuzzies at all, because I keep thinking about who I'm not
playing, but I think it just from a pure, you got to pick a
running back, which one's the safest perspective.
It is mixing. Yeah, and I think a lot of this,
if we do have true game time, decisions on Connor on
fournette, like it's going to be the people who are willing to
clackety-clack roll the dice and potentially take a zero at
running back in a Tampa Bay loss or a zero at running back in an
Arizona loss. You know, I guess it's a little
different with for net because if you're playing for net you're
locking him at least with the Connor situation you could just
play Edmonds as yours. As your choice and then, even if
Connor plays, you're still going to get some points.
Yeah, I brought the matter down to 0%.
I don't think anyone's. Yeah, I could have collected on
that in the 200 and I think Edmonds will get some.
I think I'm at seven but that's below like the combined
ownership when I was. Didn't have any idea how that's
going to play out. I just kind of had like a like a
it was like, 15% sort of starter range for both running backs,
combined. And so that's, that's cut in
half now. We only how bad do you want to
bring up Zeke right now? The Prima.
I wanted us to play 10% Zeke, and then giving me a hard time.
I did. I was working on the
walkthrough, which I will have up later tonight.
I still gotta edit it. Yeah.
But does it that hard games tomorrow, right?
Yeah, it normally does. But it didn't ya.
So I'm gonna have it out and you'll be able to read it, but I
was looking up since the by Zeke's workload.
He's running back. 17 in expected work, well, respected
points, per game, since the bike.
Don't don't love it. I think I'm, I think I'm on the
outside its argument now. You were the one pushing for
more. I was pushing I was pushing for.
I was trying to flush you out and get you to tell us what you
actually want to because I thought it might be Ridin.
I came in with an honest. No, not her.
I like I didn't question. I didn't want to say that our
percentages a bit. I wanted to like, actually can I
cast our esteemed guest a quick question?
There's a great question here from Jarrett in the chat is Tony
Pollard over Zeke to gal. Brain, what type of Leverage
would that provide this over the end Leone lineups.
I think that's I think that's Far.
I'm a, I'm a 24-hour guy in a ball just but I think that's too
far. I need your basically hoping
that Z allow gets hurt his Tony Pollard, in any other scenario,
is going to have a real hard time competing with the wide
receivers or like or or you're hoping that Dallas like losses
first round and and Pollard just like has a has a random great
game, which we haven't even seen that type of ceiling from him
during during the year. So, I think bar and I agree
injury, Pollard, like can't, there's no way that Pollard can
be optimal. I think Pollard has outscored
Zeke like twice this year. Yeah, but when he did Mike it
looks so good. There is an argument for his
explosiveness but yeah. We did our Target exposures
Leone that started some of our Zeke discussions and I had
Pollard at Liberty, I'm not pro Zeke, it's just with the
workload. He's getting.
I think it's silly to full fadem.
If you're playing like a lot of teams, do it in the context of
this group. You're the world's biggest Zeke.
No, I agree. I know.
It's insane. It would be, it would be kind of
silly. And like, close-minded.
Just a full face. Someone who has a good workload
Leone, what are your thoughts on Devin Singletary?
Let's go. Situation is a little bit
different and I built. This is Singletary lineup.
I want that on the record and write it out at you scoundrel.
Okay, here's my Singletary. Take probably a little too hand
in the dirt. Well one like just pure
projections wise. I have Singletary is like way
worse of a played Zeke like relative to his teammates but
and it's just it's if the bills I'll lose this game.
It's hard for me to see Singletary.
Being the optimal piece and if they're playing multiple games
like I could see a lot of scenarios where he's the second
best buffalo piece but he's run like God the last three weeks I
mean you know a handful of weeks ago.
If we were talking about Devin Singletary would have been two
percent in this contest for weeks ago but he can't turn a
corner. Some things he cannot do it.
I just want you guys to know that I checked my slack DMZ.
There's there's a literal asked in a three-man conversation of
somebody asking if Leone was requesting an mft trade to get
Zeke into his wallet. Like this is literally every
platform that I'm on is Leone asking for more Zeke.
Hey this is being set up. Very disingenuously regular
right now. Okay?
Like I'm being thrown under the bus.
Yes, I am entering a group entry and I happen to have the other
pieces. So somebody does, in fact have
to send Ezekiel Elliott, I actually will give Leone some
credit because he's like, you know, the Patriots it's
impossible for them to win this week.
You would think in this bill's route, that maybe Leone would be
more excited about Devin Singletary, in a positive game
script but he's not my fears with Singletary are I've already
hit on bunch of them. There's a long list of let's be
honest you have the bills in the Super Bowl in all of the
scenarios you projected. So you just have 100% Josh Allen
lineups. Well if there's scenarios were
Allen gets into optimal as in like two games because the way
the quarterbacks are on Tennessee, Green Bay, even Tampa
Bay. Yeah.
And like you if you make a San Francisco run the quarterbacks
Even Kansas City with Tyreke and Kelsey like there's not a ton of
ways that Alan doesn't get in the optimal even in the AFC
Championship Game. You know, with his Russian
nobility in the way they spread it out.
And then you've got Singletary versus digs, I do I'm probably
undervaluing how often Singletary beats days but I do
also think like if Singletary. It's been it's been 18 weeks of
over projecting digs. What's another one?
What what? People have probably been saying
we've been over projecting Singletary for 32 weeks until
the last for like I mean like this shit just sometimes happens
you know it's not uniformly distributed like I think there's
an element of Randomness like I don't think Devin Singletary is
all of a sudden like this go to goal line, he's not what not.
But I guess the question is is there a concern that your swing
back too far? Because because it's such
obvious like - leverage his workload over this stretch of in
much better than Zeke's workload.
Yeah, I mean, the last thing I expected points like throughout
the efficiency stuff. Yeah, I think.
Okay, I might be to hand hand in the dirt here, but I think
they've had some games that aren't representative how
they're going to play in the playoffs and I could be wrong,
but they've played some bad weather games against, yo,
Carolina, Atlanta, the Jets to finish, like, I think those are
kind of the bills, the way they I want to plan A Plus and this
is super cold game coming up. So like there's a chance that
the weather does cause them to play somewhat like they did in
those games but I think they want Alan to just drop back like
90% again. Like an absurd amount of the
time kind of like what they did in the New England game.
And I think Singletary, did I have still?
I'm like an okay game and the Tampa Bay game but also like my
take isn't purely narrative. Like maybe my projection on him
is wrong but like, it's coming from that, like I have him as
like a 5% time. Play and the fields going to
play him 20%. So I'll fade, you know what I
mean? We can just play in five percent
and still be way under way and have a look.
Yeah, I put them in a fucking line up, baby.
Well, you can, we did have a whole discussion this week where
you were very clear about my nose.
Not, this was not a softlock. This was a lock, a 0% hard.
I found a good lineup with him in and I put it in.
It's got to be what, like, a two-game scenario for
Singletary. Yeah, a lot of these running
backs are that's your open for, you hope for two games at a lot
of these running backs and that's the big question goes
with the idea. You know a lot of these guys
like their dogs to the field on two games but the two games
specifically is probably more likely than any other relative
to the beach. Wal outcome would Henry be the
only running back where he's likely the optimal play from the
team in a three-game scenario. I think Nixon very easily could
be but I know no. I think missing could be makes
it alive for that for that. Yeah that definitely good for.
Nothing is like Mitchell. I mean where are we honest?
Where we at on Mitchell's pass-catching?
Because at least with mix and we know he's going to catch some
passes. Yeah I do.
I'm so nice. Our on Nick Mitchell I think
Mitchell could catch four passes or you could get zero I just
have like absolutely no idea. The problem.
Yeah I think the two Diamond past catching, it's the same
thing with Mixon, right? Like those two down, guys that
are like good football, players. Like they have those random
Spike weeks receiving but they have no 4 on it.
Yeah, and Hasty is still like playing some passed down snaps.
So so if I told you that you are for the Bengals were making it
to the AFC Championship Game, mix in would be the play for you
guys. No, no.
I would pick one of the receivers, but I don't think it
like mix-ins, a bad play. No, yeah, ya.
I would definitely pick one the receipt.
I think I would lean towards mixing and if I think it would
be mixes but hard to get the running back, obviously love the
receivers love the Bengals passing game and play them in
every format all year. So hard to get the right running
backs in this particular year in this contest.
Mix and feels to me like he would separate in that scenario.
I mean he's gonna be he's gonna be brought along by the passing
game. He's going to score some
touchdowns there. Going to games, have one of the
things is that they're playing. Plus scripts in two of those
games. Most likely, I want the running
back on that spot and then I want to take the good receivers
we have on so many other teams, you know, in other spots.
That's why I keep picking mix in my lambs and it's just it's so
tricky because what been saying, like he could get outscored by
Chase and being the optimal, you know, if it's a true running
back optimal. Right.
That's true.
So explain that because I think
people have a hard time wrapping Their head around that, that a
player who scores less than one of his teammates, could be the
optimal play from that team. So it would have to be a to
running back optimal for this to be possible, but if running back
is just so bad, if mixed in outscores, you know, the next
closest running back by more than Jamar chase out scores, you
know, the wide receiver. That would be left off mix-ins.
Actually going to be a better play.
It's probably better off. Compare them to the like who the
third running back would be. So you have two points from last
year like the final points to kind of show how the optimal
even comes together. That's something we should have
kind of Duty because it does get trip.
Like it's stuff really gets tricky like we're talking to
line up before and things like why would you use you know
Damien Harris against the bills defense and like he brought up
some good game script points but like at the end of the day it's
like especially with the way this defensive scoring works on
ffp. See where it's like so Random
like you gotta do some shit. That doesn't seem like it
totally makes A sense and can argue you're digging through
stuff last year. My brother like the, why did I
was this line of possible? And then you looked at like the
potential points scored, and it's like, oh, like this gap
between these different in this guy.
Yeah, I would do a lot of that digging last year but like the
gap between positions. The one thing I remember is
running back gets really shallow really quick.
Like, in terms of total points scored and you have to cut a
couple out because you're like, oh yeah, this running backs.
You know, 20 points over the playoff run because this team
played three or four games, but he has, you know, whatever
whoever does Travis Kelce your tire kill on his team, who
scored 80, right? And so like that was the optimal
over there. It's not even close.
And so you start looking down, you're like not a lot of running
backs because like most teams only have really one.
Maybe a second, you know, running back that can score
points. Receiver is a lot deeper and
that in some ways means that there's a lot more chance for
guys to hit ceiling. Yeah?
Right. Yeah, although the thing I
struggle with the Bangles, Is that just having watched the
team? And you know, sir seeing how bad
they were when they did go run heavy, like mixing can come
along for the ride when the teams playing well?
And it's certainly very possible that he would be the highest
scoring guy, or the guy you needed in a three-game run, but
I think like, even against the Titans, you know, they're
probably they're going to have the chiefs of the bills.
Most likely as one of the three games, potentially both their
winning those games because Burrows going off.
I think like, I just think that's how they actually make.
A run, you know? And so it's just harder for me
to Pivot and imagine this version of The Bangles that
we've never really seen. They've never been actually very
good when they've leaned on mixing and Borough hasn't been
effective. So, I kind of like mixing in
order to game scenarios you can develop throughout definitely
get brought along like there was a stretch in November where you
know mixing outscored I think Jason Higgins combined over
three games But that was that struggling?
I mean combined. Yeah yeah.
But what do they were like it can Hattery in that stretch
there was like freaking terrible from from a field sentiment
standpoint. It's just such a mindfuck though
because the Bangles passing game finished so strong like everyone
has those massive Chase and Higgins games in their head and
yet running back is so gross that mix.
It looks like such an attractive play where normally if the
running back field was a little stronger, everyone be ripping
Chase right now because he would just he's coming off.
Just an incredible finish and so I don't know.
I feel like the field could go either way on the mix inverse
Chase stuff. And I'd be a lot more in who's
getting left out by the way. And then that stretch that
stretch that, you know he outscored Higgins and Chase
combined. They were two on one and, you
know, they scored 41 and 32 points, you know, one of those
games was against Vegas were mixing around for 123 so like I
think we're shorting mix-ins ability a little bit here, but I
do agree with Pete. Like it is like a fascinating
figma between the positional scarcity and the recency bias
and that what passes Said like, hey, can we just talk about the
other side of that game? The Raiders?
Because I feel like they're both overrated, in under eight.
And I don't know what to do with them.
Like they're, they're underrated by the market in this contest.
I think, I also think they're overrated, I've said it's not a
few different times, but since they're buying week, a every one
of their games has been every one of the wind spent, a one
score went there, five and two prior, they're five and five
cents there. Different team, lost their head,
coach lost Senator rugs different team.
All five wins one score wins for on last second field goals to
and over time, that's time. Even a playoff team, like
they're worse than the spoilers by that regard.
That's like a fishing. It's an actual record, right?
Yeah, we want we want the Chargers in we don't want to
lose so are they underrated? They're underrated by the market
relative to their chances of winning based on the spread
based on their seed. All those things.
I also think they're just like, not a playoff team.
I think the properly rated I think they're going to get play.
I think again, get faded about 60% of the field will be on the
kicker defense or not. Playing them, which is about
right for their odds of advancing.
And I think, you know, people will play it through Waller and
then UPS, fairly close behind. And then sprinkle around 40, no
one's going to play the quarterback as they shouldn't.
I actually think the Raiders are hitting me like pretty well
played. That's what's what you're saying
about the Raiders ban is how I feel about a couple spots, where
I feel like if you're asking people like build out their
brackets and stuff like they're under rating Tennessee, I think
they're, you know, over rating San Francisco.
But then, for this contest, I think they're over playing
Tennessee. I think they're under Plain San
Francisco. I think they're applying the
Raiders even though so it gets trippy like you.
Yeah, like Pat and I were trying to figure out ways to take
advantage of the market overconfidence in San Francisco
because it's not really and fading them because it looks
like you both can be played correctly.
Mitchell's like we played a lot and kiddo looks like an actually
like in plus opportunity there Pat.
Well how are you dealing? Like I feel like if I was doing
the ownership I would be tempted to slide more towards mix it in
Henry. With people getting spooked with
for net and sliding a bunch toward Gronk, right?
Because Gronk now becomes the comfortable Tampa Bay play.
If people are really worried about for net but I don't I mean
I would love to hear you guys opinion on this but I don't feel
like they really are that word about fournette.
Like did projection like you guys stay pretty much in line,
right? Yeah, I do.
These situations are always tough but the quote was like
he's questionable, but if he plays, he's gonna be a full go,
and I just kind of feel like he's playing, and they just
don't want to say he's playing, he's gonna be.
I mean, Aryan said he's a game-time decision and I think
the words game time decision. Spook people.
I think so too. I lured him a little bit but it
is tough to like and one thing with a guy like for net is like
if he's projecting is like literally ET ours, top ranked
school player in the entire playoffs that young height which
is the position adjusted, right? Nonny position adjusted on your
rankings. Yeah.
What was I being made fun of therefore, I was answering to
support question. No, I think it was the question.
How is obvious that you just love?
So much Singletary? You got not sorry.
You guys have the best running back.
Expected points to know what was questioning.
I'm just asking if you guys are hedging because of the injury
news, no, we don't have anything hedged on the Tampa Bay we have
for now. It'll go down pretty.
Okay. So you guys have one of them
will go? I think.
Yes. Other sites probably do too.
So I don't know. Like it's people are building
their lineups. They're gonna, I think a lot of
people are going to look at projections, help guide them
through and follow. And it's up for seven hours ago.
For net is still not on the Active roster.
Can I just point out Leon is wearing a Steve Largent Jersey
and Steve large? It was known for after
interceptions. Absolutely lighting up the
Beasley OT came back at Pat there with the Steve Largent
after the interception is coming back at you.
I was just nobody's safe. Nobody knows where the debris
will go. I don't even know and no one.
Even sure who's going at, who better for now.
Okay, Pete help me out. I've got Leonard, fournette,
43%. Gronk at 30% in Evans at 17
percent. And keep in mind, I have total
ownership for running backs at 2.75 the line.
So it's already pretty low, but what would you do with that?
I think I'm starting to slide more to Henry and pulling the
fournette to Gronk. Now, are you siding with mixing,
43, Grand, cat, 30 you? What you want to pull for nuts?
UB40 guys, I hate to say it. We're jamming Lenny.
If that's true. This is this is like right?
I'm just going like we're jamming Lenny.
Then I kind of feel like there's like a push and a pull at this
time. I think some people will get
spooked. But I also think people when
they see like 39 percent would be like, 103 good running backs,
just that. With respect to this contest
specifically in football stuff right now.
And for me, it's like when I think about these contests, the
hardest part is tearing out who the hell to play a running back
because I don't want to play any of them.
And so like the only guys that I would feel good about clicking
at all, our Henry mix in in for net.
And it's so those guys have to be ridiculously utilized by the
I think that's going to be 50 block.
All have to, we softlock all three.
Or I mean, like like Henry's, like 75, right?
So then you've got at least 125 more to dish out, and if you're
talking about like, you know, maybe 2.75 and total, then you
got another 200 to dish out and like how do you even get?
Like no one's playing Mi Sanders.
No one's playing like James Conner.
Like maybe sometimes a little like SQL be like, smashing you
getting some Jake? Gibbs.
Yeah, I'm like that people can come around.
I'm telling you if we do not get a more bullish quote about
fournette status and they're still the game time decision,
stuff floating, he's not going to be 50%, we do we should be, I
think we should take a chance and if he doesn't play, you
know, so be it, you know, like the money on fire.
But we're trying to win half a mil here.
The problem is that Gronk is such a strong play as well.
That if you yeah, like if you're wrong and the Gronk is the one
that comes Really low. We got the overweight, right?
Yeah, we can't play Brady then because we got to be even on
Evans. I don't want to touch Brady with
a 10-foot pole. I don't either, I don't really
want to make this make some Brady full face the same fucking
thing happened. Last year.
Not even saw fade full fade, just know, we're soft fading.
Brady Lord, azlok ever, fall off a whole thing.
We're saw fading, Brady, you got clear, every brick, every Brady.
Lineup is a Singletary lineup, Leone deal with that but I would
rather have five percent of those guys together than knowing
Brady. All right, I've already felt
greatest. I'm so joke's on you guys.
Ha, ha, ha, you guys like what if, what if last year and for
not like doesn't play in warm-ups and they just so here's
my thing. Last year's team was very
spread, right? This year's team is like
essentially the Chiefs. Like you have Tyree kill Mike
Evans. You have Travis Kelce, Rob,
Gronkowski, and you have a really good running back and
that's like there's no one else. It's not dude fucking siren
pricing work like 102 one week. You Brady's gonna go to Scotty
Miller and whoever the hell he wants like, yeah, he does if
they go to the Super Bowl like Bray.
I'm not saying he's an amazing play, but it's stupid to full
fade him. You're making the lineup you
guys make it 5:00 yet? Fine for Theta.
Hey I want to tell you guys a story.
Uncle Andy 912 p.m. logs in before the show's even gone
live, he says do a Jalen hurts team.
He chills out for about 45 minutes.
He's unsatisfied with the content he comes back.
At 9:59, says do a. Jalen hurts team.
I don't even know what this needs.
What do we do? He wants us to build a jail
under someone. Tell him a positive.
Jalen Hurd story. Pat.
You want you have a little story time for him?
Yeah, sure. I get some story time.
Everyone's worried about this weather, in Tampa Bay, talking
about gusts up to 35, there's rain.
Well, the rain supposed to be done, basically by, you know,
12:30, it's not even going to be raining, and then we don't know
when these gusts are happening, maybe they're only one, Tom
Brady's, throwing the ball. Maybe the winds not that big a
deal, maybe it's Were rated still that the day away here.
So we get Jalen hurts going against the big old past funnel.
He connects with the Von Teese Smith, deep downfield, for a
touchdown. He hits Goddard over the middle
for another test. Any runs one in now is advancing
twice and you're already looking at hurts.
Maybe in the optimal. Let's go.
Wow, there you go. Uncle.
Andy, that's looking good there too.
To gamer that will you kind of have to you have to write like
you've got a Green Bay Tennessee.
Probably right. And then the Green Bay Game was
a massive shootout, but Adams, blew up.
And then you get Henry and Adams as the, the optimal for those
teams could be wrong. What are the odds of the
conference Championship?
Yeah, it just sucks. I mean, I wish that they could
match up, you know, with Dallas. Or Los Angeles or Arizona after.
I think it's actually the road based on the odds you put in the
begin the week, the under the, a three percent chance of making
the Super Bowl. Yeah, I think that might be what
the market sometimes. The market over rates.
Like the berry back-end teams a little bit because they just
want people to bet on and and he's a full 3.9 right now on
that 347, but like there I mean I don't know like I think Jalen
hurd's is ok just cuz I do think there are some scenarios he can
sneak in. In a to gamer and then you kind
of free. Roll the equity stake.
Jalen hurd's is an immediate Buffalo Fame, like a buffalo,
losing first round. I think you want buffalo losing
to Kansas City, at least I don't think you have time.
It was in the first round. Well, I'm just thinking like so,
How likely do you think it is that hurts?
Outscores. Josh, Alan if they both have two
games, well How likely is it that hurts outscores Goddard by
more than Joshua outscores dicks?
Okay and I think you're playing the hurts team is like they're
just, you know just running horses just, you know, running
rampant and so there's not a lot of passing going on.
That's The thing you about that it's at it's almost like you
have to get two things right with the Eagles because even if
they get positive game scripts they want to run the ball.
No matter what. And then it's like well then you
need the running to also be Jalen hurts running and getting
those touchdowns near the goal line.
But that's kind of the only thing I just ran an absurd
amount of times like hurts had a pretty decent Fantasy game.
Also like I know like the temptation to like look at the
game script on the stuff is sometimes like teams end up
winning after their Trail. Into scores for most of the game
or it's just a closed back and forth game.
Like, there's so many today to doesn't matter anymore, I gotta
go. Yes, I was.
I was only one who's drinking. Okay, about how much I'm
drinking. So, I think you'd like this
beer. It's, it's a Pilsner with
Jasmine. Buster has Drew Drew is going
for the booze, quite good. The old Leone just admit it.
Are you saving yourself for tomorrow?
Well, we'll all be okay. I gotta sit, I actually have my
pre-physical blood test tomorrow morning.
So I feel like loading up on a bunch of alcohol tonight and
then that would probably screw up my numbers a little bit.
So also as I recall last clickbait, this is Clinton, but
also as our goal last year we were all drunk and we already
carried our lineups. Ooh, the fittest.
Yeah, I also know what's happening in an hour, you got a
choose-your-own-adventure, he got it.
All right, let's tell her. What is that would want to make
up all those dos? I mean, we're on the beer isn't
highlight, your favorite beer. Sounds good to me.
Leone what it tell us, walk us through.
What's, what's the tailgate plan tomorrow?
Who are you going with? Is this with the landscaper?
I don't even know the details here.
It is with the lie. I'm going to the landscaper.
I'm going with Jay. I love how good of friends.
You become feeling. It's Caper.
Well, it was more like the opposite.
Yeah, friends and then I became a landscaper.
I was trying to follow his wife first.
I was like going back to high school, We don't we don't really
like have set plans. Only thing we've done is, we had
like extra tickets where we were sitting.
So instead we fought better tickets, like five rows behind
the bills bench, so I'm pretty pumped about that.
I am taking some heat for turning down.
A sweet ticket. People like you are climbing
idiot, but I feel like I got to be out there with the people and
like experiences, once-in-a-lifetime Adventure,
dude. Yeah, I'm on you.
I'm on your side with this one. Silva called out Leone's virtue
signaling. With the people and I think it's
true. I mean no that's because here's
you can't, you can't win with silver, right?
Because if you say you're going to the sweet, he starts calling.
You saw a man of the people in your Ivory Tower.
The hundred percent. Yes, here's what still you
couldn't Leone's never really at the game.
You just watching, this is watchin from a sweet, someone's
giving him a foot massage while you watch Devin Singletary.
Run in four touchdowns. I've definitely noticed at
Michael Leone, making a goddamn. Damn public statement every time
he enters the Great Outdoors. Incredible virtue signaling
would expect nothing less from the El Jefe of the spreadsheet.
Socialist, enjoy the game. Comrade So that's that's what
it's like to work at each. Wow that's awesome.
In three months. I've degree temperatures around
the Neanderthal Bill fans, then he then he comes after you.
You can't win. Yeah, I can't.
I can't. It's a, is it gonna be a real
socialist crowd down there of the bill Stadium?
Oh my God. Unbelievable.
I do have the idea that you'll be five five rows behind the
bills bench. I mean that's I'm stoked.
That's my awesome. You're gonna get the whole feel
of it that's going to be that's going to be blasted.
What's up what is the boots on the ground about Devon
Singletary? Let us know if we should play in
the next week in DFS. I you guys hit like scared by
literally just up there doesn't Singletary.
Projection, you guys. This is what's so crazy about
these arguments is like I don't want to fucking touch, Devon
Singletary. But that Leone says zero percent
and I'm like this guy's off his rocker.
Yeah. No, I know.
we don't have some better reason for us to have zero the same way
like I'm like, like everybody thinks that way, but it's You
know, yeah sometimes you got to take your Ellis late number one,
give us this and I've learned yeah be able to take your ass
sometimes but that's why we should fade Zeke.
Well to the beta Mommy, I want to take some more stands.
I think we're too spread out. Probably.
I really do this. 12 line of spots.
I think we should be making like harder stands in something.
You know, I think about think what's good for doing just fine
but then then I want you to go back in your time machine.
After that, Pittsburgh Cleveland game.
Game last year and tell me how long again, tell me how you
felt. So ask you, how do you feel
about the the Stan? We try like, you know what, that
was the best week whatever. Because like we did this we sat
here at this spot last year and the pat you were with me.
I recall us both being, oh, sorry, to drag you down with me.
But telling Leone over and over again, that Juju was does.
I know. Also, we didn't have enough chub
either, like, on the class team didn't have enough chub.
Chub was kind of like a more conscious like underweight
though, but yeah, we Have enough.
But like as much as we really could include Juju was very
conscious On Bended Knees Park. Very sudden about not playing
Gigi I guess. I meant like chop was like a
game theory play Juju was just like you guys just went just
adamant that we did not play him.
No matter what Hassan was like in the comments, like my only
like Lifeline. I was just getting.
I was getting it from all sides. I think I've told you guys this.
How much that game mess? To me up because we had all of
our ffp. See lineups that went to hell
with that game. I was in like fifth one place in
the in the gpp Jesus Leon. I was in fifth place at a gpp,
then didn't even cash. And I used to take my, I
remember that. Yeah, I used to take my phone
like to bet like that was just my routine.
You know, you go upstairs with your phone and I said, you know,
fuck it. I don't even need to look at
anything on the internet. Leave my goddamn phone at my
desk. I kept that routine up for four
months. That game broke me so much that
I said, I don't need my phone at night.
I'm still shook that game but it helped me build really strong
life habits. So yeah, I remember that was the
same week where I put my ETR job on the line and belt.
Michael Thomas over Tyreke Hill with Adam Levitan and Michael
Thomas played the entire game and scored zero, I've never been
more embarrassed. About and I have a lot of
embarrassing old. Like as far as like fantasy
calls go, I don't think there's been one more embarrassing than
that. We already.
What tells me? Tell me what happened.
You go to this game tomorrow. The bills are just absolutely
crushing but Devon Singletary. Has 200 yards and two touchdowns
200. I might 1.45 carries coat off.
Your streaking, your fandom more than our lineups.
Oh yeah. I care about my Phantom
responding to another support ticket.
What are you wearing? Yes, please stop.
I want to know. What are you wearing to this
Bills game? Like that's it's so cold.
Okay so I'm glad you asked because I think every
opportunity I can to tell people about this winter coat.
I bought I've told you about about six times already.
No, I'm definitely heard about it.
I know you've heard about it and I'm going to tell you again
because you know, Pat asked, I wish I could find, he's got some
sort of like affiliate deal with this.
It was like the line was like, if you're not going on an
expedition, in the Arctic, you don't need this code.
And I was like, that's exactly the coat I want because I refuse
to be cold. So I'm more worried about what's
like my, did you in my like, a warm coat?
It did seem like, you got paid to put out that tweet.
No, I'm just so proud of the coat that I just put it out on
my own. When I was, I'm probably gonna
send another one. You prepared.
Hashtag add, it's coming. All right.
Obviously, the same exact tweet here with my landscaper.
In my Feathered, Friends go, I've he this is just absurd.
Everyone called me fat Tio. Yeah, he was there for a year.
I literally there for one year, he was at that game though.
They like had a thing with him. And I used to have like
everyone's Jersey, hey Rick, Rick would be proud of me.
Here's another photo of Rachel Getting ding Leone.
Ready for the game tomorrow? She's already sending me all
these tips, I guess, the cardboard Ben Kramer.
No slouch at said it, but I've heard it like the cardboard in
your boots or under your feet is like a really plus EV move.
What do you mean? Like, you put, like you stand on
cardboard over the concrete instead of just standing
directly on the concrete. Pipe are like excellent
insulator. There you go.
So you that's, this is the dut. You get you kill two birds with
one stone. You, you roll in with the, the
soft walk on the cardboard time. You slip it under as a foot
warmer, dude, if I could soft lock on TV.
What's the challenge? Like, what do I get from you
guys? I'm pretty sure you get a ship
chasing promo, clip that goes over Twitter.
Oh my goodness between the soft lock and bird Scouts suggestions
to Joshua Allen. There's just there's too much
too much going on in this Bills game is well I guess is Levitan
making you wear ETR gear. You know in case you get on
because I did I hear Levi was going to a sum game with
Jennings to their to go to that where they sat Courtside.
I want to get to a basketball game already.
I think, did he get on TV? Did he get the E TR Pub in
there? No, no.
The game got canceled. What?
Yeah, yeah. So that was the game.
It was nuggets Warriors. Loved him was going to sit
Courtside. With CSU CSU got covid called in
a favor and the NBA postpone the game.
Oh my God. They were worried that Pete
would give the players covid and they had to cancel cancel it.
So, so, so it's been rescheduled and CSU.
I'm sure they're fitting in and they're just they're checking
back with Pete on his golf schedule for the rest of the
winter before, before scheduling that one.
But the game is not taken place yet where Adam was going to go
fully TR billboard for the seats.
Like this is how you make up for the the Michael Thomas bet.
You goes fully TR billboard. Yeah.
And I start jamming Devon Singletary lineups.
Well to go not back to them how much Devin Singletary.
Do you want to play it that like 0%?
I just wanted to give you a hard time about Zeke.
We haven't mentioned yet. My going to talk about this on
established Millions today. For just this DFS late this this
week as well but like I think it's my Gavin's.
I thought you were going to say Darren waller for a sec.
Why you're innocent? Our Boyd?
No, no. It's harder boy.
It's too cute for this type of contest for DFS stuff.
I think there's there's yeah, there's reason there.
But what do you like like with evidence?
Like he's only going to get held down because of his teammates.
There's nothing to do with him. Like, if you could play multiple
bucks, players everybody would be playing Mike Evans in this
contest as well. Literally just said this earlier
that, if for net, and Grand Cordon this, we would love
Evans. Yeah, you know, in 2002.
That's why would you say that? If you remove the two best
options on every team, you'd like their third.
Well, For the playoffs, you would
choose my Gavin's and that's why it's a known God wins out.
You say like Evans is the best fancy producer but it's the
positional stuff that is pushing up for Nat and Gronk.
And so like Evans is just getting left behind for no
reason. No fault of his own just his
teammates thing is like like he's straight-up projects worse
than yes to even aside from the positional stuff and I don't
think you know, she would ride him.
So it's more about the Titan premium score.
Yeah, then needing a tight end. But I do, I go back and forth on
a, we were talking about Evans a lot.
And the problem I had was like, okay, it looks like we should
play avens like X percent or whatever and I'm like I think it
should be higher than that but then I look at like the
ownership and the ownerships already higher than that.
And I get into this wraparound Enigma, where I'm like do I want
to? I know better for segai into the
ownership that's already higher than you know, like and I always
have a tough time with those plays, whether it's to what's,
what's what do you have Evans, projected?
now, Pat in terms of ownership, Yeah, yeah.
I might I might have brought them yet but I'm down to 15 that
sounds about, right? I think you want 25.
See, that's where I was at initially and then you get
through it and you're like, you want to be overweight.
Oh, that's why you don't fucking play Tom Brady?
Yeah, I think that's right. I think that's why you go low
on. Brady still, what's wrong?
What's wrong? What do you think, Roxy?
What would you pick Gronk? I have drunk at 32, and I have
for net, 45 rocket. 32 is a really nice place for and that's
coming down. I'm telling you that right now.
How low? Hello for not and great.
I mean five to six percent drunk at 32 is a tough tough spot for
me to take a stand on. So that means I probably have it
about, right? Yeah.
You're the grok. If I brought for net down to
240, dinkin Leone, you guys just jamming?
Yeah, yeah. I think he wants that, he won 50
55 to 60 at that point. I think I'm gonna leave my 45
then. So he's gonna be for, I think
he's going to be 50 when you say you'd want 55 to 60 at that
point, would that come off of Evans?
Or would you be really under when I'm grown?
No, I literally would not play Brady.
Yeah, but still 55 to 60, you said 25 on Evan.
So you'd be what 8285 so you'd be at 15 to 20 of growth, which
would be well underway? Yeah, it's okay.
That's what you'd be. Okay.
Yeah, we're playing for 25 percent.
Brady, It's Just Happening. We almost done this with like 15
guys. Yeah.
Cuz it's just happening. It's just the way it's gonna be.
Yeah, you guys, you guys get a little crazy like I get with
seven singletary's but do that would like I will probably don't
like you guys don't like a lot of players.
That's true. Actually it's actually it's a
fair criticism. We don't need this team.
Thank you, thank you. Thank you.
I think that's where I'd be. So you wouldn't play like a
Single Tampa Bay fate. Its single Tampa Bay wouldn't
play time to lose one and we went place.
So I can tell you what I've got in
the scenarios that they lose. The game.
Yeah, tell me it's a mask. Pete, that would be helpful to
honey. What are you looking at right
now? Like where did your gaze went
from like this direction, clearly to get up here?
Why don't you have it on the ceiling like grabbing us monitor
Envy now? Okay, games, where games where
the Box play scenarios for the Box play?
One game I have for Nat and grok is the highest exposure.
But massive - leverage and Tampa Bay defense and Ryan suck up is
clearly the highest leverage place and a higher exposure, you
know, than Evans and Breanna Brady's obviously like it clear
not play. Yeah.
Brady is a clear not play and all that.
That was kind of my take notes. Imagine let's just accept we
just clip that probably only five Super Bowl twice.
I was ready for that one. You son of a bitch.
So Brady is like the second highest exposure, Tampa Bay
player and internally to Lenny or not.
Yeah, hmm. Oh and he's he's he's thrown so
by far the highest leverage in Tampa Bay and five games me.
Ask you this you have to take one big stand either overweight
or underweight on a single player on tampabay what would
your big stand on Tampa? Baby.
I would reluctantly be underweight, Mike Evans?
That would be a big Stan. Wow.
If you're forcing me to do to, I'm playing like hey, let's play
a little bit of everybody. Okay?
Like but if you're if you're saying you're looking like,
you're like, yeah. Like if I had if I had I think I
put 10% as my desired exposure, when we were going through our
thing thought I knew. By the way, I don't know that
Brady's going to count as a big stand.
If you paid him was I've got him at four percent right now.
Like I just don't think people are going there with the wind
gain. No one wants him in round one.
Yeah I mean pretty. You could play.
Yeah, well, I mean, he wouldn't even in your optimal, he was the
second play. I mean, I'm not saying, but
like, yeah. So if I fire, the highest lab
reference for reference, most teams in five game in a run to
the Super Bowl five game, run out of the wild-card, the
quarterback is helpful for most guests and Brady doesn't show
that way. It's not for Green Bay, not for
Tennessee. They are not kind city.
Barely, I said five games. Who's the other one?
Kansas? No.
But this would be, this would be the same.
It would be the same. For their team, right?
Because it's the same concept. I mean, sure there's teams,
yeah. Okay.
Like Jimmy Garoppolo or whatever.
Yeah, I mean, I mean it's so it's probably about half the
team's not most probably about 50, 50, it does feel like, you
disappointed actually pure in the AFC though because if the
bills make the Super Bowl and you have Brady your, I feel like
you're kind of dead. I think you guys are under
rating. Brady, throwing bullshit,
touchdown passes. I'm hammering.
Brady was his body builder rejection.
Guys, all playoffs. He was 10 percent last year and
I just want your blessing. People aren't excited about the
Buccaneers to make a run again, they're definitely not excited
to play them. In round one, they could be
going up against Dallas and round two.
That might not be that. But you know, so and then you've
also got more interesting, quarterbacks in general.
I think you've got ya, Kyler do I like your bullshit TDR?
A like, the more than I'm thinking about this.
Now, I think, my Big Stan would probably be anti drunk then.
II agree with that dick because I'm more on Gronk is going to
catch more ownership than we think.
So, the thing, the thing that I, the thing that I would think
through is like, I think I gained more by being right on a
drawing fade that I gained from being right on an Evans fade.
And I think you're basically saying like we want to be over
for not and Mike's making really good cases for being over, Brady
on a small rate. And so like, where do you get
under? And there's more room to get
under on Gronk than there is to get under on Heavens.
You get more when you're right on that so that's where I'm at.
I think I'm on the inside because gronk's led, the team in
routes for the last two weeks as a tight end.
He's getting targeted. A high rate.
Yeah. The tight end premium stuff.
I mean, like he's just such a good play.
Like he committed a it's a it's a tight end.
Let's say what's a reasonable model balls for them to catch
over, I mean it's five games Super Bowl counts twice.
So like those things doing noise incentives.
Happens on us. Like let's say it's 30 catches
in a Super Bowl run, like that's 15 points that gronk's being
spotted if they each can. I mean it's a lot and tighten
and he's positioning this but we have one thing we have here that
I think is being a little bit under waited.
But I mean, I don't know how heavy we're going to play it,
but Mahomes is never been as a quarterback, not in a by
scenario. So in this contest for several
years, we've never had the potential for five games. the
home my homes and like it can still be kelsier Hill for the
Chiefs but Kelsey's, typically the best play, right?
He's gonna highest own tight end.
He's a great play. But you could have a scenario
where Casey being favored in the AFC makes a run.
And Mahomes is actually the quarterback, which hasn't really
been the case. When they've had a by like last
year, it was Brady, Kelsey. That's what you want, but this
year can be Mahomes Gronk. Pretty easily like Gronk.
I think Janek best tight end play.
I think, I think he's a, I think he's better tight end play than
Kelsey. Like, just straight up.
Like, I think his Target profiles, just better.
Yes. In like, you know, you can go
to, you can go to the homes, you can you can go to Hill.
There's a pretty big opportunity cost in playing Kelsey.
I think it's one of the fields going to be on Kelsey and so I
think like Gronk fate. Kelsey lineups are actually
pretty cool but like also like most of these lineups are
probably playing too tight. I mean yeah sure this is like
the tight end. Scarcity is like almost a
complete non factor. Will do you think I'm off with
the fact that I have Kelsey 58% Mahomes at 22%?
And tyriq of 15%, I just know that I reeks the jam of all
jams, that's what it's like to take.
I feel most confident in like in terms of like I'll be wrong too
low on my too low on the percentages.
That seems to me, I, my first instinct is that a little hot on
Kelsey and a little light Enric, not not like egregiously, so but
like five to seven years and stuff though.
People are really worried about how healthy is he left, week,
18, come back. Everyone was playing them in
DFS. I mean, like, but I don't know.
Has Kelsey like, just like he's scored.
So we're all good. Now, about that.
Like whole stretch were like the pre-drilling cousin, does these
old like? Yeah, we're good.
Everyone's good about that. Okay.
People who play this contest to like really have like stuff
that's happened. In previous playoffs is in their
heads more than it should be. And one of that is Kelsey just
absolutely, you know, crushing souls and like the recency bias
just in general. I mean, the, the season finished
with Kelsey scoring touchdowns in back-to-back games, Tyree
kill didn't play and then had 40 empty calorie yards in week 17.
Like just the, the kind of Sincere by esteem is not going
to be there on Hill. Can I just point out gobblers
come and he said you're going to be, you guys are going to be
punting tight end by the end of the night.
And right back, we've already figured out that we're going to
play two running backs. We were started the week saying
we're going to gym, five tight ends.
The way this ends is, we were dis y'all over our lineups,
right? Dude, we already got some five
tight on lineups in. Give me the tie downs.
We're also cranking purple. We're cranking purple or
pissing, you know? Well I want to get things take
on the strategy that Shawn followed the last night with
this running back stuff. You know, he was he was saying
one thing you could do is like play Josh Jacobs or chase
Edmunds or nausea Harris. I don't think we had admins at
the time but the but the idea being you play a guy who you're
actually kind of hoping gets eliminated but has a good gain
and then you have your wide receivers advancing and everyone
else has a bunch of running backs advancing and you're just
going to beat him the rest of the way.
Yeah, no, shocking. Then Sean.
Would come up with a strategy like that.
I know. But yeah, I know it.
I think it makes sense given the quality of the running backs.
I mean, this has been this has been like the ultimate year 40
running back and just understanding like, you know,
the variance at the position, the volatility in the attrition
issues at the position and then I think the league is just moved
in this direction as well, where you know, the league understands
replacement value of the position as well.
So I do think I do think It's a very, very reasonable approach.
Yeah. Do you have any thoughts on
those particular running backs that the most likely the most
likely one, and done running backs?
I guess would be nausea Jacobs. Damien, Harris Chase Edmunds.
Yeah. Elijah Mitchell mile Sanders.
Yeah. Mitchell is the most interesting
to me just because I think It's like I'm like, it sounds like
you guys think Debo is going to be the guy that's going to be
mostly played from San Francisco by like kind of a wide margin
and we've just seen like San Fran.
Just really, really loves Eli. Like, a lot of the Debo in this
is feel so correct me if I'm wrong, but a lot of the Debo
like goal-line Russian carries and stuff.
I feel like those happen more in the games that Eli was not
there. Then the games that Eli was
there. It was Was before Eli went out.
But then when he came back Depot, kinda stayed.
There were still doing that. Okay, I think he has a crush.
I still think, like last week, he's the guy that I think that
games going to play fast. I like I'm I think San Fran
that's the way that they're going to try to attack things.
I mean, the Dallas pass rush and secondary has been the thing
that's been disruptive for Dallas is defense this year and
led to like games getting out of control.
And I think they just kind of executed their game plan to
Perfection against the Rams, a similar type of secondary and
pass rush where it was just like ball control, keep the other
team off and just pound and pound and pound.
And so I think I think Mitchell's At the top of my
list, relative to the way you guys are talking about from like
how the field is going to utilize them.
And then I think nausea, you would be next because I think as
much as like Pittsburgh's talking about like we have no
chance and different things like that.
I think they have to know that their best chance is that they
can, they can just run the ball right down Kansas City's, throw
it all day and like that's their best chance of being successful
and So I think those are the two guys that would stand out from
that perspective to me and I think naturally you are getting
if they do get eliminate earlier whatever and you do run into the
big wide receiver performances whether it's like Devonte, Cobb
Chase, like you know, get off mix and get into some Chase or
Higgins or whatever like those guys can put up really, really
big numbers. If their teams make a run really
big numbers. Yep.
Yeah. I like the nausea call.
I don't think he'll be all that popular.
I keep like kind of fiddling down back and forth.
I have it. 22% Nagi and 19% the. Aw, yeah.
Was he back at practice today? He's a, I think they're calling
the game time, but I mean, I know he didn't practice.
Yes, you did practice. He did know he did practice
today. Yeah.
So I don't think people are like all that word he misses.
But that's one thing I'm trying to factor in like the people
just say, I'm not messing with it.
Yeah, I feel like dontay and Naja are both pretty good
overweights my my feeling. Yeah, I guess now, that nagi's
back it, it seemed like people would just be, it's tough,
right? Because I think people would
feel far more comfortable playing deante Johnson, but
because again, running back is so gross.
I think people would land on naxi and Nagi was good to people
throughout the year. People put nausea into their
lineups and they felt good about what they got back.
Yeah, so there's a comment here about Earth's being the Galaxy
brain play in Arizona. I having this as the chalk play.
He's like, but like, I love it, I don't know, maybe I'm too high
honor, its if people like Albert, I would assume that that
comment is coming from because my, my first perception would be
like, oh, you know, we're looking at like, Arizona Fades
or we're looking at, is the, that is the highest have, right?
And or we're looking at a situation where it's like, okay,
Not fading Arizona, like we're locked or not playing a, you
know, an overwhelming amount of tie downs and Hertz is like, you
know what, the fourth favorite tight end of the Slate, that you
would even look at. But I think when you like look
at, hey, if we're going to play Arizona guys, and we're playing
Arizona to lose, which I think most people are at take Skylar
off the table. The running back situations like
totally off the table. You don't have Hopkins, so like
gotta be Earth's, right? I think Earth should, if you're
not fading Arizona, the Field is playing hurts like no one feels
comfortable now. There's uncertainty with the
running backs and no one wants to play.
Cristian Kirk like people are jamming hurts.
We need to make sure we play some Cristian Kirk.
Yeah because I agree are you could con he could come in at
like like we have them single-digit.
Projected ownership. I like he could come in like sup
53. Yeah.
And at that point like that's yeah, you're right.
That's like like I mean his odds about scoring hurts.
I mean it's kind of like the Evans Gronk thing except you're
getting Kirk at three percent. Instead of, you know, Evans at
17, here's what happens. The Eagles upset, the Box, the
Cardinals win and you get Cristian Kirk verse LA and then
Cristian Kirk in the dome against Dallas.
I mean now you're cooking, Mike whatever.
What's your take on Cuyler? Like what's the percentage or
arguing for Kyler in these things quarterback stuff like
like around 10%. Aunt, I think and once the
projected own Pat on caller caller, I have at 8%.
Yeah, I kind of like a break even.
So the guy I like more is DAC. It's kind of like a similar
play, except I think doc has even more routes to separate
from his teammates and an even better chance of even just
making out around for one. So I like both of them for
similar reasons, but I like I might get less.
Tyler just runs like crazy, obviously, he could separate.
That that's the so that that's the like hidden variable to me
on Cuyler that it's just like what what if they just like them
really? Really let loose like and he
really lets loose on the Russian side of things.
I try to think about that with a few.
I like, I like I learned quite a bit.
I just, I think it's like him and DAC or similar plays.
I preferred back especially. Yeah, and we were talking again,
going back to that thing. Pat, I were discussing where the
people are over ratings. San Fran but they're under
playing their skill players. So like one way around to
actually take advantage of that since you can't fade.
San Fran is to played a can assume you know the victory at
least one Victory there. Yeah.
I think you're going to need more than one but I think are
the kind of rushing thing. Makes a lot of sense in terms of
like how are they going to win? Like they're going to win by
opening up the offense and Kyler actually being their whole
offense because their receivers are not good and I'm gonna face
like that. So like the Rams have a great
pass rush So like, you're going to get a lot like Kyler having
to improvise a lot. And I could just see a scenario
where like, he really has to carry an egregious load in this
first game. And then, you know, in the
second game there's there's the most likely opponent the second
game would be Green Bay right under that scenario.
But again in Green Bay has been a team that historically like
has really struggled with Rome quarterbacks that Has been one
of the things that they've struggled with historically, so,
like I could just see a scenario where a Kyler, really, really in
like to get even into games, just puts up really big rushing
numbers and we thought we've had some positive conversations
about color, but I like, I like something you said about just
like the idea that what if they really turn it loose like a
couple spots are thought about that?
Like I was joking about the Bard thing earlier.
I don't actually think you should play Pollard in this but
it would not really surprised. That much of Dallas went to a
little bit more Pollard. Now, the other one is Elijah
Mitchell, okay? I just want to throw that in
there as when I was thinking about the other one is alive
Mitchell. Yo, you gotta give it.
That was a pretty reasonable take 0 as your Mitchell is, is
is an interesting play, soft lock it.
What, what about if San Fran is like, we are going to turn Debo
loose in the depot is there like such an important part of their
offense? What if he gets 10 to 12 carries
instead of five or six? Now, Now, Elijah Mitchell's not
not even a possibly, the only, the only thing that I know that
they're and again this will be thrown right back at me with
Kingsbury not being the sharpest felon in the world.
But like, how many times have we expected Shanahan with with like
kidal to like just like turn things loose in terms of just
like pepper and Kettle with volume?
Like the clearly like one of the most efficient players in the
league and it just like it's never a priority.
It's something that just kind of happens.
It happens and so I just don't know that San Francisco.
I don't know that they think of anything in that context.
Now again I don't I'm making the case to Cliff will think about
this with Kyler and I don't know I don't see any reason to really
believe that I put to your point.
Like I mean maybe Cliff isn't involved like you know if caller
has to scramble around improvise.
So that's kind of my thought process on and like and I've not
been impressed with the way the Rams have closed the season me
neither. And so I you know, I think Think
I think there's like a lot of, a lot of Primacy bias when people
get to the playoffs, right? Like especially like casual
people like you all year long. You thought like the Rams are,
great Green Bay's, really good, and you've been skeptical of
Arizona, and then Arizona kind of faded a little bit the end.
So, it's just, like, just what you needed to be like, I'm out
on Arizona and so in everybody wants to play Cooper cup because
he's been the fantasy God this season.
So, Just like, I really think playing Arizona took to advance
is just like there's a lot of Leverage points on that.
And I think I literally just such a such a potential game
breaker on this contest to that point.
I just want to say, I feel like if there's one team that I'm
kind of fighting like the field on to keep the, you know, the
projections too high here. It's Arizona, like I have them
as 57% faded and San Francisco was like pretty similar odds of
playing too. Games making Super Bowl, I have
them at 33 percent, total faded, kicker defense and yeah.
So like almost twice as high for Arizona and I think I might be
too low on Arizona. I think that Fades might come in
more like, okay, there's no, yeah, yeah, the one thing I'm
thinking about Arizona. So like even when you look at,
you know, 538 gives them seven percent chance to make the
conference Championship game, football Outsiders gives them a
five point, two percent chance, the second lowest other than
Iceberg to me where Arizona gets interesting.
And if I want to play a Kyler, I want to play an eagle's upset
because then Eagles go to Green Bay and are simple, just go
upstairs, Dallas. San Francisco or hang on a San
Francisco upset and Cardinals. Yeah, exactly Cardinals in the
Cardinals. Go to Tampa Bay now.
You're right. Yeah I still don't love it.
You probably want them at Dallas if you think you could pick last
likely to happen. Yeah.
Really I want them at the Tampa Bay.
They're throwing a ton. No I want the Dome the Dome
matchup. Not on the road at Tampa.
Yeah. Well you're on the road at
Dallas to yeah but doubt I guess both those defenses are Solid
but I guess my point is like you are thinking about those subsets
like in your Arizona situation, you don't want to go on a green
Arizona at Green Bay. That's that's a death sentence,
I think for them. So that's a really I think
informative Point like if you are wanting to play that just
think of getting them in the best possible scenario to get to
the NFC championship game. I love, I love that because then
also like there's there's dominoes that fall in that then
you fade Dallas, right? You played dialysis defense or
doll Kick out. As you're playing saying friend,
when it's Dallas is not going to be faded heavily by the by the
field. And so you can or soften them or
hard fate of whatever yet. Don't throw in a Dallas, clear?
Because they are a team that if they're losing especially to a
team like San Fran who to Cuts plays in a game.
Yeah, they're slow. And then Dallas spread the ball
around and then there's no one there.
So go play, pit player. Go play deante.
Johnson, go play ghadir and fade.
Dallas from this. Go get one.
You're running backs, figure it out and she was like, it's like
no one that's that technique and try to correlate if you like
I'll like it, there's so many levers that you're pulling on.
Like you don't have to get, you don't have to get super weird on
like Devonte and like like cause you're pulling levers on the
field in different ways with, with the car stuff.
So, that's right there. This is really interesting.
We've joked about Pat story. Time all week.
This, these are the stats, the stories that Pat has been
telling the most I think are the kind of stories.
He said some really good Kyler stores.
I like Carlos stories and burrow store.
It's gross. Yes, the borough stores.
You do the same thing, you send him to the KC, they have a
shootout, you know, then it gets the bills or whatever.
He can have fun well in dink, you think about it, right?
For Showdown when you're trying to be unique we don't have
leaving on the salary available for this conference, right?
So what are the two ways we get unique either with gal, brain
off the radar plays or by flipping the build construction
stuff. I don't think this contest lends
itself to the gal brain, super-thin, back up tight in
place. So how do you do it?
You play a different construction than everyone's
playing and I think that's where you can really get it without
having to be too outrageous. Yeah, I think so and I think I
think it's just it's like you look at all the teams on the
landscape of the playoffs right now.
In terms of teams that could surprise and make a run and like
where would the points come that?
You be confident that if they made the run you would identify
the right player and I don't think there's a better.
Don't think there's a better example than Kyler and Arizona.
Like, yeah, I feel the exact same way about Daft.
I think feels about Kyler, yeah. And I get it, I get it.
And I think Jack and Alice are more likely to make a run.
But I think there are scenarios where if that can douse make a
run, there's scenarios where the wide receiver is, is the top
play like there. There's a cherries on Mars on
Arizona. I have like, Earth's is more
likely to be the top play than like Lamb with the Titan premium
scoring like Earth has a higher Target, share them lamb and he
gets one and a half per catch. Yeah.
That's another one of my thoughts, Pat.
If I feel like I'm more on the field, getting spooked by
Foreign at the maybe you guys are.
But if that happens, I do think Zeke starts to soak up a little
bit more of it, just because no one else is separating for the
field as like a confidence play on down.
Are you breaking the picket line right now?
Are you? What's adorning?
The only side. What is Leone side?
He know Liam like exactly opposite.
People are buzzing about CD lamb like that's just not happening,
like people are indifferent on, see deal and he didn't torch
people. He didn't win any leaks for
people, people are indifferent on him and I think if push comes
to shove and there's uncertainty, Some uncertainty on
running back like Zeke is going to be that guy that gets pushed
up a little bit to do some point.
I think you're right I definitely I have cd a journey
one and Zeke at 30 and I probably need to give like Drew
you one of my swing you were my favorite.
This is like a late point in the show to be bringing this up at
your my favorite people in the industry in terms of analyzing
the contest, right? I think you're like so freaking
good at this stuff DFS, we have the ability to Limit the things
we need to get right by stacking nipplegate.
Yeah, here we can't. We have 12 games that we have 12
lineup spots and we have to play basically every game and we're
talking about this I think right now with the Cuyler thing where
we can start to see The Dominoes fall and coralie right across
multiple games and you can start to build a bracket.
Yeah. Are there other like I have had
a hard time with this all week. I'm trying to think of other
ways that we can start to correlate things across games
are the things that you, but so do you, so yeah, what you're
getting at there been was. The thing that I was saying with
Arizona and that Mike and sing on Dallas which is just that
like the idea is when you stack and DFS, the idea is that you're
trying to get multiple things right when you're getting
actually one thing, right? Right.
Like you're trying to get a pass game to explode and you get the
wide receiver and the in the quarterback correlated together
and sew. The way that I'm thinking
through this, when you guys are talking about is, how do I try
to get multiple things right with getting one thing, right?
And in all of these situations, if you pick a team to make a
run, you have to consider who is the most likely player to lead
that team in scoring and different things like that as
well as getting the run, right? And so with these teams where I
feel like one player can be dominant and is not going to be
utilized heavily by the field for whatever reason they're the
field is out on that team or whatever.
Ever those are interesting spots.
Like I obviously the bills are going to be heavily played in
like Josh Alan is gonna be heavily played, so it's not
really the same example, but if if you want if Josh Allen was
played at the level that Arizona and Colin Murray were played at,
I would feel the same way about that situation because it's like
I know where the points are coming from.
If this team does make the run and that's my way of saying like
Okay I can get two things right by getting one thing right.
Which is if this team makes a run, I at least know where the
points are. Coming from and that's that's
why Kyler stands out to me in that way.
And I'm trying to think through what other scenarios are like
since Dad. And I don't know, I think the
Patriots are kind of that scenario with Damien Harris,
doing. Yeah?
Dan. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
It doesn't feel good like, but I think you're right.
They are, but the other thing with the Cuyler Dak Dak thing is
just because of atoms with Green Bay and you know, the stuff we
talked about We like no one wanted to play Brady.
Anyways, they can easily get there and you know, a conference
Championship loss. So you've got out.
So again like getting less things, right?
Like you don't even need to get who wins that the conference
Championship game, right? Yeah.
One thing I saw brought up was this idea of fading teams on the
same side of the bracket as basically as you play a
quarterback. Like if you're playing Kyler
through and we can talk about this, you end up fading Dallas.
You can play a lot of skill players on the other side, sort
of playing those as shootouts and you have multiple outs in
the way that side of the bracket can play out.
But the side that you're playing the quarterback, you need to
play it a certain way. You need Arizona to make a run,
if you're playing Kyler and so you can fade some of the other
potential, you know, Dallas Dallas, can't make a run Affairs
on is making a run or, I mean, they both could, but it's
obviously more narrow, you want Arizona in the Super Bowl and
then you can play the maybe fadem and play the tight ends
from that side and then, and then on the other side, You can
play the running backs and receivers that.
Can that could get there in one game to game 3 games, something
like that. It gives you multiple outs on
half the bracket I do. That's what I think.
Some of this other stuff that we've talked about.
I mean, is who are the players that can get there.
In situations where their teams don't make around.
Like that was getting back to the question that Pat was asking
me that Sean had brought up last night with you guys on, like,
the running back position, but I think Mike's brought that up
with Josh, Alan, I brought up with Cara Marie, likes brought
up at that a little bit too. Like, who are the guys that if
it's not perfect, they can still get there in the fields.
May be under rating, How likely they can still be in the winning
line up even if their team doesn't make a run and think
like, all, almost all the first round, Her dogs.
Yes, there's dr. Jacobs nausea collectively, like
people are just special, get to the seven seats.
Get to Pittsburgh and Philly. I mean, for sure I wanted to I
came in the chat earlier was like guys where are we at again
on Devante Smith? Because yeah, he strikes me as a
guy who got the highwomen Dot. You don't even need the
high-volume game but it's certainly possible to given the
the matchup in the past final situation with Tampa Bay, his
Target profiles stronger than goddard's.
God is just run really hot on his targets so it's obviously
going to be highly volatile because he's a deep threat.
And there could be wind and he hasn't been efficient this year
so it could just totally burn you but that's one words, like
he's going to be probably two or three percent roster.
I think he also runs underneath route.
So he is a deep threat but he he operates it all day.
Yeah. It's like that's it.
They can catch 88 passes in a game where God or catches three,
and you get the time that premium that's going to push
Goddard ahead and projections. Most most of the time.
But yeah, Devante can win in a one-game easy.
The I am curious, like those guys like Devon te and Kirk I
think are pretty easy to play like a little bit over the
field. I don't know how much I'd want
of them. It's always hard to figure out
where to draw the line on like the third options.
A team like, you know, Tyler Boyd in a one-game set, you
know, Odell and it won games. That's a really easy way to get
leverage if you are picking them to lose though, right?
I mean yeah. It's for those that like we I
mean what were people on ship Chase?
Talk about Gabe Davis. Like like that it's like it's
definitely but I'd rather just do.
I'd rather do bills D and then go play Deonte, right?
Yeah. The thing, the thing that's hard
for me in this contest about that like third option is so
you're hoping the team loses and that third option Option out
scores the primary to game in the first of June.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. It's just, I don't know.
It seems super super unlikely and like with Boyd with Boyd
specifically, like talking about him specifically, like do you
guys know how many, how many games that he actually, like,
led the team in scoring this year?
He did. Once we looked it up earlier
this week, I'm ship chasing. It's like my guess is one that
would have been. One is had been the only one to
me the analogy of if you are playing like the Tyler Boyd, the
Gabe Davis, the Cedric Wilson, the analogy is playing a non
chalky, 3K wide receiver in a gpp, right?
Like is there a chance it hits? Of course, of course.
Is it likely know like you really need to thread an
incredible needle for in the other thing that I'd say they're
which like you know it gets back to what has become my fucking
catch phrase in this industry I guess but like what do you
actually win when you win? Like How much does Boyd
outscore? These other guys buy that like
you get like is Boyd outscoring them by 10 like probably not
God. This is a great Point here
because Juju last year was night this in the realignment here.
Play put was and JuJu outscored Claypool because he was so label
was like the same. I mean, Juju was a bad play.
They outscored Deonte both by like a huge margin, right?
But well, my my my Million dollars.
That's what you want. What do you mean?
It is a point that I've been making on this one as well.
Drew this week where somebody was some about CJ use almond
which is funnier on the same team but Boyd kind of makes the
same point even if you hit that you're gaining on the field
there but because you can't correlate like DFS.
Yeah you still have to get the other ten spots, right.
And it's yeah you start to get the Super Bowl ring and like and
like I mean someone's had a game where he's like probably outside
because he had that one like crazy game with you Josh.
Sounds very probably scored his team by like his teammates by
10. Does Boyd have that in a?
Maybe? Maybe?
I don't know. It's probably more likely to
outscores, teammates by 10. Then rhizoma probably.
I agree on that but I still think it's like a small
percentage of times. If that happens I think most of
the times avoid wins that matchup against the other three
skill players it's by like 23 and like you don't you don't
actually separate in any way shape or form.
Yeah, I'm more open to it than you guys.
I think there's more of, you know, if a chalky bracket plays
out like those three points could actually be like super
pivotable. Pivotal I want to ask.
Why you have edible boy? I better than Boyd and I think
yes by like a wide margin. I thought we were going to get
drunk Leone. Just said pivotable.
I think the boys better than boys.
I think I use better than Boyd. I was really going on.
Is like a guy I think is like, On the line.
Not that, I'm not saying we should play boy, but I think
like, Boyden Odell are like, where the line is.
Yeah. And claypool's on that line.
Yeah. It's been kind of comes out of
how you feel about the against, right?
Like maybe the first that's the, that's the appeal of devotees,
like, he might be the first. Yeah, he has been the plates
based on the targets, dad like claypool's.
Probably on that line to like I think those that's the tough
part in our builds right now is how many of those types of guys
that we play? I think collectively.
We all agree that those types of plays are overrated in general,
but I don't think they're like useless.
Yeah, and it's funny. We had back-to-back comments
here. Austin asking in the end.
Is it more important to get the contrarian individual players,
correct? Or just get the teams that are
going to win in advance, correct.
And I'm a I'm with Alan here saying it's better.
Predicting the couple of upsets and fading the job popular teams
than finding the thin place. That's not 100% hundred degrees.
So like a perfect example are talking about Tyler Boyd, like
play play, Las Vegas to the AFC Championship game in Play Josh
Jacobs like that. That's your play.
You know that? Yes, she is totally and play
like, if they make a run, it's probably through like, they've
gone past week, two, and three tight ends sets, its kind of has
to Jacobs. We've said this before.
For this week. But if you want to go to a thin,
like Cedric Wilson or CG use, AMA play, the better way to do
that. Like in DFS, it makes sense
because their salary constraints and like it doesn't always make
sense. But yeah, pain.
Yeah, the better way to do that in this contest is play a team
that is being heavily faded and play a good player, play Devante
Smith from Philly, he's actually good at football.
Played deante, Johnson plate. You know, somebody they're going
to be so heavily faded you're making the sort of the same
percentage bad, but you're actually getting to play good
football player and it's better fit.
This contest for sure it is a little different.
But we have had people, when like, million-dollar to game
slides because they played, you know, Byron Pringle over.
Tyree kill, you know? Yeah, so II think like, 90% of
the time you guys are right? I think like, 10% of your
lineups, like should be carved out for like, some of these guys
as well. So, it's like, the really big
difference between this contest and like, talking about in
comparison, with DFS and You can you can do the 1 V 1 comparisons
when you're talking about players that you're expecting to
lose and be out in one game, but it's the compounding interest of
multiple games that allows the good players, a better chance at
separating from the fluke game, right?
So like that's why that lion is about, liar them off the board
on some of these options. You need it.
I think you need it to be one and done because if not they're
more likely to get covered by one of their Maids the more
games that they play. Like it's just it's the the
natural rule of of, you know, the law of large numbers.
The more. Yeah.
We need to take them out. I mean, we definitely seen it
and that's why I think if you make the pivot and you go it's
not just that like if you pivot to Smith or Jacobs that that guy
has like a better chance, then Tyler board, let's say up being
high-scoring guy but then if you get that team advancing, you're
not like oh no, I'm dead. Like I'll see I've got I got the
Best guy on this team, right? Yeah, exactly.
All right, it is time to build a lineup as I've been doing on the
show. For each of our five shows this
week, I have registered a team into the football guys.
Thirty five dollar entry. We are going to build a team.
We are going to start with our honored guest and a true sweetie
pie, true dink Meyer. Who do you what this light up?
What sweetie? My God.
All right, I mean, I could, there have been a worse time.
I Gotta Serve worst, DM for him to release to Twitter.
Let's start with. Let's do it.
It's all how the dominoes are going to fall in place here.
I love it. We going down.
Um yes, we will go. Let's go to Leone our second
featured guest. Okay, I'll go met gay.
That's how you use your pick. Okay.
I mean you can still blink up in this lineup.
That's already. Like that's.
So disturbing is how quickly he said it.
It was unbelievable. It was like the computer to his
left. If our overriding this frames
team and and they got a loose and socialist.
Yeah. Picks that gay.
I didn't even know he's in this contest.
You're just lucky. I didn't take Zeke.
Is that why you had to type his name in?
Yeah, everyone is I mean Gretchen it on the show this
week is Gretsch puts Cooper cover the lightest of.
All right let's go to let's go to Gretch.
Oh he's gonna take 10 times longer than me.
Not everybody ready? And I'm going to do exactly what
the only did. And I'm going to take Dallas
defense because Putting Tyler. Yo, lock in the San Fran win.
You lock it up. Defense.
Let's do it. I was gonna put in Dallas to see
if it came to me. We're United be set up.
All right, Pat, who are you picking?
All right. Well we've got I mean we
probably need Tyree kill in the sauna, okay?
Love it. Love it.
Yeah, I'm Gonna Let You Bros figure out the NFC mess that you
have created and I'll put like we do every goddamn week.
We need to snake. It Pete.
Pete a second pick. Wow you what's the snake?
It ruins the leverage big at the End the Opium, I do.
All right. Um, I'll just burn our.
I mean if we have Kyle we can't we can eat some Derrick Henry
Chuck here. So then who's it back to Pat?
Yeah, I know who I want, ready. Brock, and right.
Let me go. I'm gonna go kid'll, okay?
I was gonna clean up that Dallas mess with Debo, but that was the
right call 10. That was something that's who I
was gonna take. Who are we to scratch now?
Yeah, that was going. D Wilson.
I have to think you have to know Cooper.
No, No Deal Chi. Higgins T Higgins.
All right. Now to Leone you can see it.
Who did you want? Only you know, I want, I was
going to kid'll and then I'm just trying to decide on this
Tampa, Bay situation what we want.
Let's do, let's do jessjacobs, okay.
I like that. I like that a lot.
All right, dink double tap power move.
Oh man, you got to make the Tampa Bay decision for us but
they Philly and Tampa Bay. Philly.
Pittsburgh Casey's in the do we have any idea?
The Patriots. Oh Patriots, we have the big on
Smart. New England here.
Yeah, we're good. This is a New England fade,
right? Yeah, yeah.
The rare light up build where the tight end and please don't
have placekicker have a green bag that's that's a wild card
Green Bay. So if faded cup so you know I
mean yeah I think I think leading the witness
Yes Tina cup and add and look how.
But here been just was in Ben's events in France event for the
comment of the night. Greg has listened to the audio
version. Frank says that gay period?
Oh my God, that is me. We only do it.
You gotta do it, right? How is any of our stuff stinks
out of fan? We talked about how we kind of
want Tampa Bay to lose in this scenario, right?
So I think if we want them playing from behind, I think we
went my boy, Mike, Kevin. Oh no, we already set up the San
Fran's losing. We already set up the Dallas
loss. Okay.
So that would be Arizona playing.
Well, I can't make sense of it. An Arizona gets a home game in
the second round. I mean you can really point, I
mean, you complete a to lose but all right.
I don't think I guess but both sides of that game you could
just put like Evan just want an excuse to play Mike Evans.
You were yeah. You just wanted to like he had
the player and he was trying to back in the line.
I think the idea of playing people here because then you get
that extra out because we already have San Francisco.
Winning. That's great.
Pat, it's not your fucking pig, was it?
It's weird. Who's pick is it?
I'm trying. With Dallas Goddard.
Anymore. Yeah, we're gonna have a good
time. Entering our Lighthouse, making
them is going to be the hard part.
All right to reconfigure underestimated.
How long it's going to take us to actually put them in after we
make? All right, so tomorrow, tomorrow
tomorrow. I want to be very clear on the
play that I recommended that. You guys all know wave, I feel
like it's Mike Evans. I feel like based on Leone's
conversation based on Pat leaning towards my Kevin State,
I feel like Mike Evans is this year's Grand this, you know
think you know, we're definitely up at PC.
It's tight and premium people forget.
Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
So to recap the lineup we built quarterback, Kyler Marie, Josh
Jacobs Derrick Henry at running back wide receivers, Tyree kill
Stefon Diggs Mike Evans Davante Adams T.
Higgins tight ends Dallas ghadir.
George Kittle Alpha play mat gay at placekicker.
We only had, what was that game? What do you mean, was he?
What do you think? Matt gay was is terms of a, put
a bull, put them in the chat and it's like really throwing me off
at their name. Are you trying to grasp all
scream? He's drunk.
They started with Kyler Murray which Alpha Play Just Gonna Be
scrambling all over the field running left and right running
through the NFC wild, we gotta get them set up and we gotta
beat the Rams to do it. So you know what?
Cooper cup biggest beta play out there.
All you losers afraid to fade on 90 percenter with half a mil up
top. So we come in with Mac gate,
Alpha play