Welcome everybody. You ATP chasing, you have NFL,
Combine results, discuss, Anthony Richardson, continues to
Skyrocket off draft boards, and again, Sky more.
For some reason is rising for the third week in a row.
Welcome to ATP. Chasing Pat, fryer homo, I need
a hand job. Fix your side for Jamar.
Elbow play Chase. Hey, what's up?
How are we doing? To bring out the Richardson up
into the to the sixth round. That's right.
That's our that's our job here. Right Davis, literally why they
show exists? They show every year.
We got to pick a rookie. And also, you know, there's this
thing going on in the fantasy space right now, where Anthony
Richardson is so beloved that you can't really have your brand
Associated by him, just being by being like, yeah, you know, I
like him at ADP. Like there's, there's a
hyperbole contest in which everyone has to compete to be
more breathless and in their Praise of Anthony Richardson.
And yeah, I mean look I ranked him.
I did my dynasty rankings this last week.
I've got him pretty clearly as the 102 ahead of CJ, Stroud, and
Bryce young. That's obviously a slightly
different conversation than ATP. Chasing for the by.
I think, I actually can Sam and I were just talking before the
show. I actually feel better about
Anthony Richardson. And that context, I'm still
probably relative to consensus a little bearish on what he's
going to do for Fantasy this season, all jokes aside about
like the sixth round thing. And I don't think he could ever
get up to where we were drafting Trey, Lance last year, just
because people are so bought into the Niners and Shanahan and
all those weapons. But I legit think there are
scenarios where he could become like an eighth round pick by
best Ball Mania three close. Therefore, I mean, what?
If he gets drafted by the Detroit Lions and the Detroit
Lions trade Jared goof to someone for a third round pick,
he is a sixth-round pick it me. That's the that's the trail and
scenario, I think right there. But yeah, I mean, if you Lance,
what are the the non like? I think everyone's talking about
Detroit and Seattle as Landing spots for him because it makes
sense like sitting a year behind golf or Geno Smith, but I'm
trying to think of like the the teams that are just a And look
at quarterback right now where you'd want him to land.
It might be well Peters. High current rate up the
Falcons. Yeah, yeah, that's those are
good too. Well, the Colts could set their
for and probably just take him. The Colts, could probably not
trade at all. And I think he'll probably be
there because I, well, it depends obviously depends on
what the eventual trade between what Chicago does with the first
pick. But i Houston's for sure.
Taking young or Stroud and I don't I think Arizona is just
going to sit and just take Whoever, I don't know.
I mean I'm not that some defensive player, we don't know.
Yeah, well yeah well a will enter something.
Yeah. Well, I understand our I guess
probably not J Allen Carter because of this whatever which
which sets up pretty good sets up pretty good for Indianapolis
although you sort of get the sense that that's the team
that's going to take will leave us though.
That's that that's the, the fly in the ointment is that you get
the sense that the Colts are the team that's going to take, leave
us. Yeah.
It is that you're saying under the scenario where both young
and Stroud are gone by 4:00. Yeah.
Your say does not save like a Richard said guy for really easy
really does. Yeah.
Just he really doesn't, although although this new the guy they
hired Shane, steichen, he seems like an anti-aliasing guy, he
seems like I just spent two years with jail and hurts.
Like let me get a more athletic worse throwing version of Jalen
hurd's and just coach him up. Basically.
Yeah. For What it's worth, um, like
drowning the market and similar sites, and then Richardson has
jumped leave us grunting box has amassed at fifth.
Now, with, leave us at at night so I do see that for the cold
specifically potentially going with leave us but that that flip
is pretty interesting, post combine.
And yeah, I wonder again like, how much of this combine bump
from Richardson, is real verse like double counting.
Well, it's totally double counting.
Yeah, but I get at the same time like I think GM's are human too
and they See Richardson at the combine and they're like,
goddamn like this guy's a freak like they might be gonna get to.
It was the vert jump for me. It was that, I mean, the the
weight, the weight, and the 14, everything like I knew he was
going to be fast because I watched so much of him.
But watching a man that size who's not a wide receiver
generate that much velocity with his body.
I'm like, just not going to be able to stack this guy.
Like this guy is just not going to be stackable.
Well you know what else? I thought was dumb?
Like all the discourse. I was like, why do I care how
tall? How Hi, this guy can jump.
It's like we just watch Jalen hurts in the Eagles.
Like redefine, what QB sneaks meant because of his athleticism
and strength you're telling me like what Cam Newton used to do
at the goal line with overstretching, that a guy who
can jump out of the gym, wouldn't be a good skill to have
when you're near the goal line, or trying to get a first down,
seems like a pretty handy thing to.
I mean, do maybe the biggest play of the Super Bowl until the
the hold had had that stupid Smith Schuster hold not
happened. The biggest play of the Super
Bowl would have been jail It hurts double efforting through
for the two-point conversion where he was wrapped up three
yards away and was just like, I'm not going down and it's
like, yeah, Bryson's never doing that Bryce young.
You have to throw on that play, you know, CJ shroud even you
have to throw on that play. But Anthony Richardson, just
I-it's he's going to be so good but it's like there's going to
be his first start, or whatever. It's going to be a lot of
people. The the Anthony Richardson
faders, like he's going to go like 10 427 with two picks and
there's gonna be a lot of people who like, you, why would you
take this guy? Well, think about what?
I always remember Lamar's first year, right, where he took over,
what it was like the last two to three games of the Season,
which, for us, best ball Bros drafting these tournament teams
we would be stoked on that. They did not let him throw.
He had a really high floor. He was putting up like 18 points
a game. I don't think he ever crested
even like 20 points, he had this like tight band, where his
rushing a lot. He was giving you that floor.
And at that I do think that is the downside risk, right?
Where it's like, he's getting it all on the ground, it's not
clicking for him to throw and he's actually more of a high
floor than a high school. High ceiling guy that first
year. Yeah.
And and P, or even underselling. I looked up Jackson's rookie
year. I was kind of digging into cops
Richardson, he averaged 21 points per game and was okay.
What if you look at points per game over that six games?
I think it was a seven-game stretch actually that, he, he
started then the year he was at 21 points per game.
So yeah, like you said it was all rushing like the past the
past. He was kind of ugly, but that
can get you to, you know, qb5 key be 10 range and fantasy,
even if you don't have the passing figured out yet.
So, Yeah, that we can. I don't know.
We might as well jump into the charts since we already talked
about Richardson here. He is.
Once again one of the biggest risers of the week topped only
by Darnell Washington our guy here on on ship chasing so which
is which is not I need to. I need to get ahead of this.
Darnell Washington is like a dog to score. 50 fantasy points this
year. He this dude this is this man is
going to be one of the most aggressive.
Pressive run blockers in the entire league, I would know what
this Donna, Washington available, put Donna,
Washington, the Q. This guy, you guys are going to
like him. This suit is massive.
Oh, shit. This dude is fucking bad.
I just had to make sure you were putting some respect on our name
here when we first, I mean, he's clever, come on, he's, he's
great, I'm not, I'm not saying I'm not saying, like, don't take
him in Dynasty, he's dropped, like, he's gonna be a
first-round pick but like I think Dalton Kincaid and Michael
Meyer might catch each of them, might catch, 400% more passes
each than him, but is, it isn't that the most likely outcome for
all of these rookies? Right?
That's are not contributors, but in the event that they do, get
on the field and whether there's an Injury or they carve out a
role, they have the athleticism in the talent profile to smash.
I mean, I guess so. The kind of the way I think
about rookie tight ends is I kind of like the guys more like
and this is I mean, I don't know, this could be cold takes
exposed but I kind of like the the Isaiah likely guys we're
likely was like a good athlete but not like I think his wrath
was like seven and a half or something like it was good but
likely played at a smaller school and college and he was
their leading receiver. He just was so used to catching
passes and And his like I think likely had like an think he led,
the Ravens and targets per outrun.
Like it was nut when he was on the field, it was to run routes
what you don't want with your rookie tight end is for him to
become Eric. Tomlinson, you know, that's
that's not a good role. But it's high debts.
So it's tight if in week 17 you know he gets drafted by whoever
he's got a good role or he's on the field.
Like maybe you could compared to something like would Noah gray
this last year where he was blocking only but had Travis
Kelce suffered an injury like Noah gray probably would have
been a really good week 17 guy you'd want to have well in the
the most likely scenario is he's like Darnell Washington ends up.
Being like the Donald parm type where we're forever chasing it
because we could see the Story and tell it, but it just like
never pans out. And I think I've seen this take
floating around, I think I agree with it, like, isn't the flyer
to take Sam laporta, isn't he the guy most likely to carve out
a role by the end of the season where the teams are trusting
him? And he already has kind of the
tools to immediately contribute. Both same deal.
He was, he was a leading receiver at a, I mean, I was not
a small school but it's not like, I didn't you, bro.
Yeah. It's not a college football,
playoff school, you know, I guess I guess the other thing
that's interesting at tight end And is, is I don't you're not
really being asked to pay a huge price on Kincaid right now.
I mean he's two rounds cheaper. But again he would be a guy
where I'm like he he didn't do anything at the comma 0 because
he's banged up, I think. But he was same deal.
Like like actually more competitive school and was he
wasn't their leading receiver. This year.
He was last year. Yeah, I think with this I tends
to like somewhat so much of it. I think for me.
I'll come down to two landing spot, right?
Like there's there's a ton of wide-open tight end depth charts
and then I felt right now, like Dallas of Schultz leaves
Cincinnati. Hearse is a free agent, Gerald
adverts, a free agent for the Chargers.
Like if one of those guys lands in one of those spots they're
going to shoot up or if we also often see, rookie finally
harvest season or they finally are the Chargers just going to
roll with Farm your 74 Donald parm.
It's either that or giving joshjpalmer 10 targets again,
which sounds awful. Hate it.
Um, all right, let's move. Let's move to Richardson last
thing on Richardson. So I think the popular comps for
how his career could go. Our, it's Lamarr, it's Josh a
loud and it's Jalen hurd's. Those are, those are kind of the
the one end and Cam Newton. Actually.
So and I said this to Sam before the show, I actually think that
Alan comp makes a lot of Sense. Because which is kind of
actually bad for fantasy for this year because Alan was not a
good thrower at Wyoming. You've really wasn't you, go
back and look at it. Like this guy was not winning
games they work, there was not good at Wyoming but he had all
the tools and you would think that because he's so big and
he's such a good rusher. And that's what we associate
with him now that he would have been good for fantasies a rookie
but he wasn't. He was awful.
And I think that Richardson can work out long-term, I think, you
know, he can he can end up getting the mega deal by The end
of his rookie contract and still just be kind of kind of like 15,
16 17, 18 fantasy points per game as yeah, I guess.
So, to push back slightly on that.
Like so in the context of ADP this year Richardson at 150 is
still the quarterback. 25 big Josh Allen is yeah.
Joshua and his rookie year, he put up 17 points per game.
That was good enough for quarterback 18.
So so I'm with you there. Like, if is ATP Rises the trail,
Lance Range of like 90 to 100, then I start to like, get that
arguing little bit more, but I think at 150, like, if he gets
17 points per game, that's a like a small win at that price.
Now he definitely has more downside risk to not start
games, but I think it's just like 150 seems high and he's
risen at on, but it's still like not that crazy for those
contact. Lens quarterback makes these
atp's different than they would have been historically because
the top end quarterbacks are going so high, which is even
pushing up. That vanilla tier of, you know,
pocket passers. I think one thing that's really
interesting about Richardson and how is ATP is going to go is
going to be in the difference between the pre and post draft
contest, right? We're having the 20 rounds, it
makes the 3Q be built with Richardson.
It just feels like pure oxide. I'll tack them on as my third QB
and I can still survive Advanced.
I can win when we get to best Ball Mania.
If his ATP moves up, you were basically only going to be able
to pair him with like, Holmes Allen hurts and acute in a 2qb
build or before stew use them in 3qv bills.
You know, like you aren't going to be able to do Jared Goff and
Anthony Richardson Bill like and that's all Mania.
So I think the like the way you're able to draft him is
going to really narrow for best Ball Mania for Yeah, that makes
sense. I want to bring up some other.
I was thinking today I was looking like quarterbacks
drafted in the last 10 years or so in the you know top 20 picks
that came in with pretty unpolished passing profiles but
strong strong to medium is rushing profiles.
Some other guys I thought of that are not really brought up
in the context of Richardson for a variety of reasons.
But Daniel Jones is maybe another one, not the best
passing Prospect, but really athletic, he averaged 17 points
per game. Rookie year.
So that's sort of another median outcome.
You could think of a couple other guys that were more like
faceplant. I'd say, we're Mitch to Biscay
and Ryan Tannehill. Their rookie years were pretty
disastrous, there at 10 points per game, but they did start a
bunch of games, at least the rookie year.
And then I guess the other downside cops are obviously like
Trey, Lance Jordan. Love you could say, but those
guys are different for a variety of reasons but yeah, just want
to bring those those cops up in the context of Richardson for
what? You know, potential range of
outcomes for his rookie year. What's this wedding?
Ring graphic here. Oh yes, it was Boomerang.
Yeah, I didn't have time to update the legend but Boomerang
is a guy who was the biggest Faller the week before and now
Boomerang to the biggest Riser. So people BTF deed.
All right? Yeah, she's brown.
He was falling a bunch. I think there was just no buzz
about him, but he had a really strong combine, so, yeah, he's
probably good guy worth talking about pretty strong. 40 time,
high relative Athletic score. I think there's a you know,
five-year guy. Strong producer has a senior.
I'm actually curious Davis on your take on him as a prospect
because, you know, curious, if you think this bump from the
combine is something you're buying or if he's a guy, you're
not that interested in. No, I mean, this is like the
exact type of guy. I'm pretty interested in like he
got better, every single year would make sense.
Makes sense why he was not An early declare because he only
got the play, he was right there in the middle of that covid
stuff his early declare a year would have been 2020 so we never
really got to start really did well in his age 21 season and
then his final season was just a stone work horse for a, not very
good team. Like, if this guy was a wide
receiver, you know, Cedric Tillman, like I've got real
concerns about Cedric, Tillman over-aged, you know, State at
school, when he Coulda left and add, probably cost himself some
money because High it, So much better than him this final
season but for a running back I don't really care.
I like running back to me is kind of like three-pronged.
It's like one. Are you are you a deuce van
type? Or it's like best-case scenario.
You're getting like 12 touches a game.
Or can you can you just be James?
Conner to what is your athleticism look like?
Obviously, a huge Boon. I think when your athleticism
goes up and then three can, I squint and see something that an
NFL team will love. Of about you because that's
that's really what we're looking for.
Is like which one of these guys is some running backs coach
going to put on the film and be like coat.
You got to, you got to take this guy with a third round count
pick we need Chase Brown and he shows up and 210 pounds and runs
a 44, like good enough for me. That makes sense.
And yeah, if you look at the ATP, verse consensus, consensus
big boards, she's proud according to NFL, mock draft
database, is ranked as the sixth highest running back.
In terms of consensus, big boards and he's going as like
the our be 16 in terms of rookie running backs by ATP.
So to me, that just seems like a pretty easy by, and I expect is
ATP to rise to the, you know, 180 range just based on the
combined results. So Definitely seems like a by
the 220 spot. Yeah.
Are there. Other groups of guys would you
talk about here a couple of saints pass catchers show up
here as risers? That's obviously based on the
Derrick Karr news and I think even Chris a law, they wouldn't
be close to making the cut here. If you know, we extended this to
20 or 30 players instead of just 10 but again, both Rashid
Shaheed who's risen. Now for two weeks in a row and
jajuan Johnson are up here in terms of risers.
P curious. If you've been mixing in Saints
tax since the car news, and what your overall take is on, on the
Saints. Prices here.
Yeah, I haven't been going out of my way, it's funny.
I actually feel like Shaheed and Johnson are available for me and
drafts, but it does seem like car is always off the board.
Now a little bit earlier than I'm comfortable with.
I'm not sure if the data back side up, or if that's just
anecdotally in my drafts. But I think it makes sense,
right? The market I think, is correct
to push she heat up, who could be the The Mac Holland's for
Derek Carr jajuan Johnson, who can do a poor man's Darren
Waller and maybe stay healthier and a lava being the Davante
Adams. So I certainly get the
enthusiasm or slightly more enthusiasm.
Now that it's not, you know, some taysom Hill and Andy Dalton
hybrid at quarterback Yeah, we're still we're still taking
taste them though. We got give we talked about
another the taste of Jewish if he'd Stacks are the key to
winning BBM for any Pete, the the taste them thesis as done
nothing but improve right because Jamie no no it hasn't
improved because you had legit like Andy Dalton, bench risk and
taysom Hill getting the job that way where it's like what are but
are not going to get benched. It seems like Jamis, it seems
like Sheamus is there renegotiating it?
Like it just seems like that relationship is a little bit
fractured. Seems like Jamis might not be on
the team which gives more room for taysom in case of injury.
But he was the he was the fucking tight ends, he was the
tight end 6 like throwing like 20 passes like the thesis
remains intact Yeah, I will note here with jajuan Johnson to put
a little fun on his name. He's a free agent right now so
I'm not entirely sure why. He like I think people are
assuming comes back. The Saints is probably likely he
comes back to the Saints. But guys, like her Skies like
Gerald Everett. They're falling because they
have uncertainty of whether they're going to be back.
I think the market is just like assuming Johnson's on the Saints
and that's pushing him up, but I'd be a little nervous about
that. On the few continues her eyes
higher because you could, but you could argue, You could
argue, it's bullish. If he gets like a two year, 12
million dollar deal, right? Like like the Hayden Hurst
contract, you know, like hating hers was useless for the Ravens
but then found a team that actually wanted to use him and
ended up being way better for him.
I mean I think the markets doing the same thing with Dalton
Schultz like Donald Shultz is not going to be a cowboy but
it's probably good for him to not be a cowboy because
whoever's going to sign it Miss going to want him.
Yeah that's fair, I think. Yeah, it definitely introduces
volatility. I was just interpreting in the
context of like the Saints atp's are rising and I think Johnson
is getting caught up in that basket, but in that not actually
on the Saints right now. So I just be a little, a little
careful, but I agree with your point.
There's definitely benefits Sports Mustangs.
This Jerome Ford. One is interesting because I
think the market is again, making another assumption that
during his Johnson is not going to be on the Cleveland.
Browns. But I would assume that if hunt
leaves, which is what, everyone sort of anticipating that
Terrence Johnson would be ahead of Ford for whatever, you know,
it because I think they can. I think they still have a
restricted ability on him, maybe that's wrong but I would imagine
that you're in a chanson would end up being ahead of Jerome for
maybe, maybe it's not true. I think they like your own Ford
more in the passing game though. It would be like dear Ernest
Johnson would be like the chub replacement and Ford would be
more like the Hunt. But because wasn't was it for.
It's like passing down, roll more entrenched last season,
when when he was getting in the game compared to the Ernest.
Well, I think he, I literally think he'd barely played.
I don't think it was. He even at?
I remember at the reason, I remember this is because I had
been drafting a shit ton of deer.
Just Johnson because we were all hoping for like, the 241 were,
Kareem hunt would get like traded or something and then,
right, you get that and then it never panned out and then
dearness, like, never carved out, much of a role.
Well, I guess what would actually probably be bullish is
that drove boards almost, for sure.
Going to be on the roster because he was their primary
kick returner last year, so that that, which is sort of the
Isaiah Pacheco thesis from last year, which is that he's going
to make the game day roster? So, yeah, I mean, it's like
they're both, they're both pretty interesting just because
that's a really good backfield to be investing in and we don't
have any Clarity there, so probably they're both good
stabs. Yeah, I like the Ford pick.
I'd I'm glad this popped and in the chart because I had never
even thought to take him but it seems it seems pretty smart.
Give their special. I kidding.
There's some fun ones like this of like it would.
Because right now, you have the rookies and none of them.
They're all just like black boxes and we tell those
ourselves, the most Rosie story, same with all these free agent,
guys. Like there are so many good
options right now that I think even more than ever like
scrolling down past the guys that are Did in everyone is such
a good strategy, like one that I drafted the other day because I
was like, on a Minnesota build and I took Ty Chandler.
Late, just being like, some of these guys who aren't getting
drafted that correlate with your team that have some kind of like
Prospect profile that hints that they could seize a good role.
And then plus you get, you know, Madison potentially leaving who
knows the deal with Dalvin cook, but just like a thought that it
is easy to click like are pierced wrongs, who are like
being drafted. Now, in every single draft at
the end and just as the badge, Pro Se scroll, just a little A
bit further down. Well, that's the that's the
semaj perine thesis from last year.
Like perine was was not drafted in every league.
In fact, I think he was drafted quite a bit less than Chris
Evans was yeah. And Chris Adams, like literally
did not see the field and perine was super valuable throughout
the course of the Season. Yeah, I have like 30 percent
Chris Evans. I don't know where that your
worm got into my brain, but I was just classic lat.
Yeah, you know, I know where it was.
Versus was a big Chris Evans Maxi.
We got bam Jefferson here, planting a flag on March 10th to
to out well, scores more fantasy points that I would just be
isn't to to better than van Jeff.
Yes, yes he is. I think, I think again, I'm not
drafting a ton right now mental health.
Like it's good. It's good to be doing this and
keeping track of stuff and knowing what atp's are.
But I just know I get so burnt out by August and if I was just
Doing five drafts a day right now.
I would have nothing left to try and get to, you know, .5 of a
crane in 2023 but 22 at well, right now I'm flag planning.
Like I will have a ton if assuming he remains outside of
the top 150 picks. I'm going to be like, he's going
to be my taekwon Thornton, he's going to be my equivalent of
Pete's taekwon Thornton. But the what I really want is
Pat's equivalent of taekwon Thornton, so you win the two.
Sighs without not just a vehicle Lansky bucks.
Well, I mean, you know, it's kuklinski's glance keys still
spend at some institutions, I think.
Lee this is another interesting one here.
Just based on the draft Capital like if he's gonna go in the top
10 maybe there's a little more uncertainty about that.
Now with Richardson flipping em but pick 200, I mean especially
in these 20 round draft for you're normally going 3qb I was
taking a decent amount of levels just like it's so cheap were
always wrong about which Each quarterbacks are actually good
and bad. And like, I don't know if he
goes in the top 10, he's gonna start a bunch of games this
year. I'm pretty confident in that
outside of a couple of weird Landing spots.
So he's a guy that I'm okay with it, that price.
I mean, this is the dynasty rookie draft argument that that
leads to you. And then up with Justin Herbert
sometimes, you know, where or Daniel Jones some times, where
the market basically looks at the market tracks draft Capital,
so closely until it's a guy, they don't.
Until it's like a guy who's not sexy like will leave us and his
distribution of fantasy points. Should just be like the
quarterback who gets picked fifth sometimes you know but no
one no one likes him. I'm calling it right now.
Next week, leave us has the boomerang after reads just like
body bagged him on shift. Chase a god Wednesday.
I think, I think we start to see a stock drop a little bit.
It gets the boomerang treatment. Yeah.
It's not a very good Prospect but neither is Daniel Jones.
What do we think was contributing to his rise here?
Because, again, it's like all the talk out, of the combine was
obviously Richardson, Stroud in the passing drills.
Like, where is this steam coming from on him?
That's a good question. Was it like, how is this
testing? It was good, but not like above
expectation, right? I found was just like average
for what P I would say. It's probably just quarterback,
quarterbacks just pushing up, right?
I would say I would say that's pretty much all it is is just
the natural. So for Richardson's going early,
that means a team that would have taken Richardson is their
third quarterback and the 20 round draft, missed out on
Richardson. So they have to get another
third quarterback because they structured their team and such a
way to need three. Yeah, and and ended hooker and
Becky were like useless, and are not going to be not going to
play it. Also, if there was any backdoor
of them starting. That's like totally gone.
I kind of by that and like how I think a lot of people are
approaching these drafts is just like there's 20 rounds you might
as well get three quarterbacks unless you took like Josh Allen
and you know Dak Prescott or something like that and then
like there's a huge tear break at quarterback like after Levis.
I think like there's basically no one after him.
That you can really project a scarf to start games next year.
So I think it is that Davis works just like I want to get
three quarterbacks, like there's zero opportunity cost of pick
198 at the other positions like just get me a quarterback, who's
going to start games and you'd like that.
That's going to make these guys grew up a little bit.
I think yes. Yeah, I think that's correct.
All right, at the risk of doing the, we're all trying to find
the guy who did this. Why is Sky more continuing to
go? And we don't we barely even talk
about him. Where is this coming from?
It's basically that Hardman is gone and it's just it's like
almost confirmed at this point that hardman's gone, there's
been no Hardman might take a discount to stay in Kansas City
tight, you know, it's just none of that like he's gone so you
and and they even play. Like I just I'm not even
convinced Sky Moore's. Role is like directly correlated
doesn't exclude you. Yes, it does.
Juju matter more than Hardman. That's what I'm.
That would be my thought. Yeah.
I mean it's like I said, Both matter.
Yeah. It's like it's like Hardman was
Hardman. Also had the best targets per
out run of his career. I believe, like they were
finding ways to use him more because he was having such a
good season. And so I would say probably
there. Well, shit, yeah.
I don't know, I don't know what this is because mvs is on the
team and the S is not coming off the field.
I, what if you're, if you're wanting to be a sky more Bowl,
what you would be saying is the Justin Watson stuff is done just
in And just just disappears and Sky Eats all of those snaps
somehow, the probably, the problem with that.
This is like, Justin. Watson was like a veteran
minimum contract. So if someone like him can come
in and immediately overtakes guy, like, that's what scares me
is. It's like, I don't think it
takes much in terms of a slot wide receiver to have me.
Worried about Skies playing time.
Like, I don't know, Isaiah McKenzie.
Get gets got from the bills and he goes to the Chiefs, like, he
could overtake sky, like, I don't know, like I'm pretty
bearish on the Talon for sky right now, where I don't think
it takes a ton for him to get pushed back in the pecking
order. So, I mean, hey, no.
Fair to be fair. He's got a really fucking cool
name, right? Cut it, cut the bullshit.
I do think that like the bull case is JuJu's not back.
Then then we're going to see sky for be at a top, 100 pick.
Again, I can't do that. It feels if to me.
To me. Honestly, after watching the
homes, have the best season of his career and win MVP and win a
Super Bowl while getting absolutely nothing out of Smith
Schuster in the second half of the Season.
Absolutely nothing out of MBS, absolutely nothing out of Sky.
It's like I think the thesis was always like yeah.
You know if you're in a Mahomes offense if you're just going to
be valuable for Fantasy but I literally it's like it's Tony
and it's Kelsey and whoever they decide to be the passing down
back. Like those are the guys who I
think are going to provide. Hide the excess value.
I like that. I just don't think there are
any, like, even if some Schuster does get retained, I don't think
he seems like he's going to do. He'll just be pretty useless
again. Probably I like that.
And, you know, speaking of chiefs passing down backs, I
think this is an interesting one to talk about.
Now, we're not looking at the largest ADP fallers, a lot of
similar names on the other seen before the the dusty Thai
dancer. It's hidden Hearst property
injury news, although he did finally gets her Today, but it
continues to kind of look. Bearish McKinnon is the one I
want to talk about, he's fallen, I think for three weeks in a row
and I take on this, my saw is just it's I think people are
forgetting what he did in the regular season.
Obviously faded a bit in the playoffs, but he was a really
good fantasy asset, particularly invest ball down, the the
regular season stretch last year.
Obviously, you know, rescue doesn't come back to the Chiefs,
but my ticket at pick 185 continuing to fall.
I want some Jerick McKinnon, just on.
On the chances, he's back in that same role as last year,
Pete. What are you?
What do you think about McKinnon at that price?
Yeah I'm with you. I had.
Yeah, I had been one of the guys who have been passing on him,
but as he continues to drop, I do think I haven't been taking a
lot of Mahomes just because I haven't been taking a lot of
early QB, but I do, I don't know if I said this on another show
but I think I would be feel much more comfortable tacking the
cannon on to my home Stacks just knowing it's so directly
correlated with him having that role and the Chiefs offense
rolling. Thing that I don't necessarily
love him quite as much as, like, a one-off.
But yeah, as his price drops, I mean, there's not that much risk
with it. And we're not going to let Pat
push this fucking CH take. Well, isn't it, isn't it?
I mean, to me, it's a little bit concerning that he was not
really used in their playoff games.
That that is that, that feels, that feels not great.
That that actually sort of similar to what happened with
Damien Williams. If We want to put our brains
there, that, that Damien Williams took on this outsized
role in his first playoffs and McKinnon 11 carries against the
Jaguars. For carries Against The Bangles
for carries against the Eagles and and did get seven Targets in
the playoffs but was out targeted in the playoffs by
Pacheco. But also Jerick McKinnon is
about to turn 30 one and I just I mean you know that team let
Darrell Williams look go. You Darryl Williams was so
useful for them. Good pass blocker, all that
stuff, but when I just I don't know, it just doesn't feel like
I think it's like He doesn't have to be the started going
into the year. You don't even have to be like
the second guy going into the year for this pic to be worth
it, right? That's what I agree again.
It is like he's a guy, they trust.
I doubt, they're going to make a big splashy like free agent
running back signing. Like they don't need to do that.
Their cap situation, it's probably better spent on wide
receiver or defense or a line. Like if McKinnon McKinnon's, not
going to cost them much, I think he's more likely to be back than
not but it'll you look you look where he's going, he's going
around. Around like super Fringe.
Rookie pics like tank, Bigsby and Zach Evans and Kendra
Miller. He's going like handcuff,
running backs or free agent running backs, like Jalen Warren
were shot Penny. Like there just isn't a huge
opportunity cost where he's going.
What if Deuce Vaughn is the seventh round draft pick for the
Kansas City Chiefs? What if we can?
We can we willed? We willed Sky more to the Kansas
City Chiefs. Can we use our powers for good?
And will do spawned to be the passing down back for Kansas
City? That would you guys like test it
in smaller than you right there? Mister, he's literally, the
smallest player in the history of the NFL combine.
Yeah. Pretty pretty nuts.
But I just, I just, I don't know.
He's, he's, he's, um, he's like that what was Doug?
Doug Martin the Muscle Hamster, did he just says he's small, but
he's absolutely rocked up. What if Robert wood signs with
the Kansas City Chiefs, though? That is that is something I
don't even want to. I don't want to put At that out
there. But it does feel like he could
be, like, the Demarcus Robinson or whatever Woods is the one I
did want to bring that up because it's obviously
disgusting. But I picked 226 like, okay.
He looked dust last year but he was coming off an ACL tear.
Like we have seen guys take two years to come back from that
now. Like is he coming back to being
the old Robert Woods? Like definitely not, but he
feels a little bit like the the Julio closing line value pick
for last year. Wearing Gonna guess CL p on this
pick. It might not pay off but those
those April Victory Laps on Robert Woods are gonna get a lot
of Engagement. Well you probably have multiple
outs with Robert Woods because he's definitely signing for a
good team but he's not. Robert Woods is not continuing
his career to go catch passes from Jared Stidham in Las Vegas.
You know. It's like his Market is probably
bills Chiefs eagles-cowboys. Maybe, you know, some some team
that has reasonable posts. Season aspirations, it does
return a return to the Buffalo Bills for Robert Woods and then
like doing what they've done with Jameson Crowder and Cole
Beasley that almost seems too perfect.
Yeah, that yeah, Adam thielen a Kansas City.
We don't want him. That's so so this this comment
is your hearts in the right place, but I actually think
anyone Kansas City brings in. I think they kind of learn their
lesson. Would you would you actually, I
think anyone they bring in their going to be like, can you still
run a 44? If not, it's just you don't fit
and what we're doing. We got we got two really good
slow guys. In Noah gray and Travis Kelce
who basically cannot move up the field with a quickness and
everyone else has got to be able to book it.
Where is stealin going? I know it's on this chart, but
occasionally have pick 173. I don't know.
I don't, I guess. I don't know.
I'm not going to force you. Take him now and that's seems,
I'll force it all sorts of tape of all forces saying, I'm feelin
gonna be a really good Advance rate player probably turns in 60
catches 800 yards, five touchdowns right?
He does the Jamison Crowder. You're just you're absolutely
drawing dead to be needing. Adam thielen in week 17.
That's my that's my take. Adam thielen is like reverse
what you want you have to hit like a for leg parlay.
It's like he goes to the perfect landing spot.
There's an injury in front of him, he like Taps into the
Fountain of Youth and he has like a two touchdown game in
week 16, like that's like what we have to do with deal it.
God, that's good. Like when he's like fucking lie,
he probably needs to switch the slot now to write, like I don't
think you can win on the outside anymore so he's gotta evolved to
the Earth's Gerald role somewhere.
Mmm. Yeah I mean if Adam thielen was
tied, an eligible, sign me, I would be all over this.
Do diffuse time. Ineligible?
Yeah, I mean if say some side ineligible I don't see why not
this this Brock. Tatp.
I don't have any takes on. Hearst McIntosh is a mere, white
or McBride, really, but pretty now, that I guarantee when we do
this next week, we're going to have, we're gonna have the
boomerang probably on Purdy because of the news that he had
successful surgery literally today.
And he is expected to be basically cleared by week one,
which was kind of not. We talked about pretty last
week, that was not the conversation, it was kind of the
opposite. Yeah, I agree.
I think it'll swing back around. I mean it feels like a Pete.
I think I heard you talk about this in a podcast like to me I'm
kind of not that interested in Lance or Purdy unless I'm
stacking. And then I think if you're
stacking like it's totally fine to take either, I know you
talked about how like, if you miss out on Lance, you'll Tak
Purdy onto your a, you Kirk, it'll teams and I think that's
totally fine. Like, I think it's a very
unpredictable situation like the injury, there's a ton of
Uncertainty about that Lance, we have no idea how good he is, if
he's going to hold on to that job.
Like, it feels to me like I think, you know, San Francisco,
Super Bowl, odds are still like the fourth highest in that.
I fell still like the market believes that San Francisco is
going to be good. Somehow it's just like, I don't
know if it's with pretty or with Lance, so like I'm fine with
stacking. I'm stuff out of stacking either
of those guys but I'm probably not taking that much on Stacks.
Yeah, especially like if you think about, Like Brock Purdy's
ceiling, you know, like how often is Brock pretty getting to
30 points in a game? And he's going to be your qb3 in
these big board builds. So how many times has he
displacing your top two quarterback scores in a really
important week? It just, it definitely seems
like a tougher needle to thread, but he's also extremely cheap.
So, yeah, he did have that, you know against Seattle in the
playoffs. He did put me in first place,
very briefly in the FF, FF PC play on challenge with I think
he had like 35, 40 point games, despite yeah, I got Equity was
high, he did because because P told me, he told me I shouldn't
be taking Mahomes pretty teams and the The Mitten returns or
whatever. And then how'd that work out for
you? I could.
I got him. I got him a Holmes, pretty team
to the final. I don't want to bring up the the
pretty playoff stuff for PETA. Now, that's a really answer your
a sore subject here. What about?
So we we mentioned Robert Woods. We got some other Dusty vets on
here, Zach, ertz, Hayden Hurst. And then some rookies, what
else? Jumps out to you guys on the
fallers. Zamir white, I guess, because I
guess the market is maybe saying like he's maybe not even for
sure. The Handcuff Jacobs is on the
franchise tag or whatever. Like there was some chance that
Samir white was the starting running back for like a tanking
Raiders team next year or whatever.
I don't know. We'll see.
They'll probably. Yeah, the Shocker one jumps out
to me. I actually, I'll use this to
jump into the the rookies. We're not looking at rookie.
ADP verse, the NFL mock draft database, consensus, Big Board.
Sean Tucker was one that was popping for a while.
It's just like his ATP on Underdog made.
No sense when you compared it to like how consensus big boards
ranking. These guys like he's at pick 140
but he's only viewed as like the RV 12 to 15 in this class like
behind guys like Chase Brown, Kenny Macintosh, that Kevin's
that are going much later and Underdog draft.
So I never was taking him up there.
I guess I'm not like huge Into the dynasty Community to know
exactly why he had so much buzz on Underdog initially.
But I think it was just a bad ATP.
That's, that's going to correct over the next couple weeks.
Like, I think it will continue to fall, but I don't claim to
know much about an individually, just sort of room macro lens.
They DP didn't make sense to me. Yeah, I mean, he's probably
going to be a day three pick so that I think you're probably
right. It feels good to see a chain
where he's going because he's a guy just continue to select over
and over. I've been surprised after his
combine that people aren't chasing him up more.
I thought for sure I would have been priced out of him and he
just like Falls in most of my drafts.
Well people thought he was going to run like a four to five, so
his combine was actually viewed as like slightly disappointing.
Don't you see? I need it.
Which is crazy too. Because when you're thinking
about like the functional use of, like speed at those levels,
like, I mean, what's her, what was it?
He 43 like, yeah, 44-34, I think it's like, do we really think
that's impacting what he's able to do on the football field
versus if he was 429? You never know Peter.
Yeah, I mean plus like the I saw I'm not remember to show this,
but someone like extrapolated, his, his track times to like, is
40 times, I think he's had recorded times that like, real
events that are faster than his 40 time was, if that makes
sense. Like, it's kind of known that
like he could be, you know, maybe 49, maybe for whatever
reason, that day, he was just slightly slower.
So I don't think the speed is concerned with them, but again,
to your point Davis of like and I felt an NFL Team just needing
to see like one trait and the running back to fall in love
with them. On day two like a chant.
Has that right? Like I feel yes.
Pretty good. Exactly Capital compared to like
you see a huge tear break here from a chain to like the next
cluster of guys like there's so much uncertainty you know after
him and charbonnet I think those were the last to all the people
taking care of and they are so going to have turned on him by
like week 7. They're going to be like this.
This Brian Robinson asked Plata guy They're gonna be just
everyone's like oh the draft Capital, his highlights look
cool because the UCLA uniforms are so I pleasing and you know,
it's going to be it's going to be weak for he's in a backfield
split with Rashad white and just generating nothing and people
are going to turn on him so hard.
Yeah, he's kind of the guy who does, you know, everything,
okay, but but nothing great, right?
Exactly. Yeah.
Got the guy, I keep the guy I keep coming back to is Rashon
Johnson where some team is just for sure.
Drafting him to be The Bodyguard of whoever their Young
quarterback is. And I just that, it's like a
really, it's a really valuable role in my opinion.
And people are just stoked on this kendre Miller, a guy who is
good in college, but I've seen our buddy.
Dalton Cates was was launching. Some takes about him being like,
a really like a huge value in Dynasty drafts, which is
interesting, interesting. He did not test at the combine.
Is that right? I believe that is accurate.
Yeah. Okay.
Because I haven't seen any Buzz about him.
Yeah, I know. Roshan, Roshan.
I saw that like, his 40 time. I think some people thought he
maybe was going to be like a freak athlete, he wasn't quite
that, but for his size, his 40 time was still good.
And also, I think his 10-yard split, it was like 153 or 154,
something like that, which is quite good compared to the
class, especially at his size. And I think some people even say
that the tenure of split it is like more predictive than the 40
yard dash for running back. So I thought that was
interesting that his split centered.
Split was still really high, is your guys's, would your take be
like this cluster up here, you know, after a chain and
basically to just be sprinkling these guys in with a slight lean
toward the guys above the trend line just knowing and to your
point Davis like a guy like charbonnet like is probably much
closer to these Guys, an opportunity and talent and roll
than he is to Gibbs. Yes.
Yeah, I think it's talked about that with Korean on Monday.
It's like be Johnson, is here of his own Gibbs, isn't a tear of
his own, pretty big gap. And then honestly, I think sharp
and he's probably gonna tear of his own.
And honestly, I think you could argue even our good friend Devin
option, A is also in a tear of his own then with a big grouping
after that, and obviously a little, this will even out a
little bit after the NFL draft and we know where these guys are
going and how the NFL Fell views them.
But, but like the way, the way Sam has this graph plotted out,
looks about right to me, where it's kind of its kind of throw
your hands up and say, you know, I'm and one thing we do know,
that's I guess important to point out is that like a minimum
of four of these guys are going to be fantasy relevant.
You know, we're going to have a Tyler allergy or who like no
one's really in love with who just shows up and it's like,
super useful in half PPR scoring.
Yeah, I think it'll be really important to map out the landing
spots and I don't fully have my mind wrapped around that yet but
like, you know, if the Dolphins, take a guy in round five and,
you know, don't re-sign most certainly up, Jeff Wilson back
or something like that. Like, that's going to be a guy
people Target. Like you, I think like thinking
through all of those depth chart outcomes is going to be really
important for that sort of, cluster of, you know, Ken, a
Macintosh to keep Kendra Miller that whole cluster there, it'll
be interesting. To see how it shakes out.
I do want to get one guy that popped in the risers as we moved
wide receiver. Here was Marvin Mims.
I think he was the third biggest Riser after Anthony Richardson.
He had a really strong combine, but Davis your deeper on the
prospect stuff. Then when both of us are what is
your take on on him as a prospect and and he is, he the
guy sort of like after Downs flowers are high at argon?
Is he like this? I think he's be targeting, I
think he's better than Josh Downs.
I think, I think his chances of Being.
So he was, he was like a big speed guy at Oklahoma.
I mean, bounces really small towns like 173 pounds.
Mims has to, but memes is even faster mems was a higher tier of
recruit right? Oklahoma versus University of
North Carolina. Nims is younger.
Mims is an early declare Mims was a freshman break out like
like he like he's And, you know, he, you know, I mean, obviously
it's lazy to do this but like it's not.
So, it would not be surprising if his sort of NFL usage, kind
of mimics, his former college teammate Marquis Brown.
That would, that would sort of be the Hope, basically, and I
kind of see it. She should like looking at this
chart like he should be going ahead of not ahead of Keyshawn
booty at this point, right? Like draft definitely, no, no
booty. He's done.
He's done stuck. He he he so he hid the, the
parley of character, concerns injury, senior year, under
performance and shitty combine its II like.
I think, I think he could have showed up to the combine and
made himself a first-round pick. I wouldn't be surprised if he
goes day 3 now. Yeah, and he doesn't even have
like the injury excuse that we saw for guys.
Like, you know why my black in the Steelers wide receiver
George Pickens picking obviously had the excuse last year with
injury. Like he doesn't have any of
that, maybe some off-the-field stuff, but it really seems
pretty pretty bad for him at this point.
That was, that was the hope. The Hope was that booty would be
like, because he was like a five-star recruit went to LSU
yada. Yada The Hope was that?
What happened for Pickens? What happened for him?
Which has Combine, you know did a good job in the interviews and
every it just does not sound like that's happening for for
him. I think the guys that I would
push up the most would be Tillman Hutchinson and and Mims.
Probably And would you guys agree like looking at this
cluster similar to the running back cluster?
I mean, it's just it's so much easier for me to select these
random running back Flyers than it is.
These rookie wide receiver Flyers because at least we're
talking about memes, he has the traits in the speed to get on
the field and be a spike week guy like when it matters the
most but some of these guys like the path just seems so much
harder especially with where their draft capital is going to
be and even like if some of these guys get the sort of
taekwon Thornton unexpected, Bound to pick.
Like they're not going to rise that much like, you know, tae
kwon Thornton I think was picked 200 last year, right?
Obviously, terrible situation to England.
So that contributed to it but like, but my point being is
like, even if one of these guys gets unexpected draft Capital,
the markets not going to be that excited about them.
So I'm not like worried about taking them now.
Like I'll take them when they arise 20 or 30 pics, but I don't
want to take a bunch of Xavier Hutchinson or something and
haven't turned out that he's, you know, Like the Seth Williams
of a couple of years ago or some of these guys that just yeah
fall off the face of the Earth. Yeah.
That that is sort of like the
the general risk to be run. Yeah.
Yeah, let's move on to the stacks here.
So now we're looking at average double stack ATP.
So this is taking the quarterbacks ATP averaged with
their top to pass catchers, which can be either running back
or sorry either type and or wide receiver for pass catchers.
I also added in here, the odds to win the Super Bowl in this
chart is just like a rough proxy of how good to be think the
offense is going to be, you know, obviously that's not a
one-to-one correlation. But generally you see teams with
high odds of winning, the Super Bowl on the left of the shark
teams with low, odds, on the far right-hand side of the chart,
the team that I think is most interesting and we've touched on
before is the Jets. If you look at the Double Stack
ATP, they're like one of the six or seven.
Cheapest teams now that doesn't factor in Rogers.
If Rogers were to be factored into that, that be a little bit
more expensive but still pretty. With this news that the Rogers
deal is sort of coming together a little bit in New York.
Do you think they should be a lot higher and I saw through
that dup have you been doing some Rogers jet stuff and these
drafts? I did a little bit I'm not like
going out of my way to do it. Necessarily also we should
mention that are the pre evident owner Source around these places
crack rock has even kind of walked back.
You know, he said it's happening.
It's it does deal Roger to the Jets of the.
He goes there's a fly in the ointment and that is Davante,
Adams relationship with Aaron Rodgers and now the Raiders
making a push here. So which is what we all thought
all along, right. The conventional wisdom was
Adams was gonna be a pretty, pretty big draw for Rodger.
So, I don't know. I think it's one of those things
that I know, it's like a cop-out to say, as a tiebreaker, like,
if you're deciding between two quarterbacks, you have Garrett
Wilson, like Aaron Rodgers in that range.
Obviously makes sense, but I think it's a little silly to be
like going out of your way to try to guess these free agents.
Yeah. I mean that that that seems
about right especially because like, you know, there's there's
sort of this weird element of like there's going to be.
I feel like if somehow best Ball Mania for was open now and we
were drafting these teams Now versus what would be Drafting
and six months, then I'd be like, yeah.
So much more likely that I have like this really unique Aaron
Rodgers, Garrett Wilson, you know, CJ use Ama.
Whatever, you know, Tyler Johnson stack but because fit
because it's going to be in such a compressed time form and
because the total number of teams are lower, I think the
uniqueness matters a little bit less to.
So again, I'm not saying I'm not saying not to do it but it
wouldn't be something. I'd be.
Like, every time I take Garrett Wilson, I'm putting the star on
are Rogers. The thing that's tough to you is
like it feels to me that Garrett Wilson's price is already like
baking in Rogers being there like he is right up there and
then in the second round and I know there's people who are
Super Bowl champs him, he had an amazing rookie year.
But to me like it's tough to see him going that much higher.
Even when Rogers, even if Rogers does go there say what are we
going to be take Garrett Wilson in the first round, you know,
like, probably Around here, maybe.
But in most dangerous know. Yeah, exactly.
And again, and also, like, go ahead, Pete.
I was just gonna say, if Rogers doesn't go to the Jets, who do
you guys think? Is the most likely quarterback
to be there week one starter Zach Wilson.
That's the thing with the Wilson ATP.
Like I don't want to be the anti Wilson guy, but it's not, it's
not accurately. Capturing the downside risk of
Wilson being back and starting or just like, you know, your
Jacoby Brissette like you know, Jared Stidham, whatever like
the, you know, run-of-the-mill free agent quarterback.
Signing is if Rogers doesn't go there, I don't think it's
factoring the downside enough at the end of the second round.
So I'm a little hesitant on taking him.
Just because of that like I think I'll still get him at the
same price even if Rogers goes there but I think he does fall.
Like maybe a full round, at least a half around if it's a
bad situation there. If we know Zach Wilson is still
on the roster and they don't have a veteran solution which I
like, I don't know, feel it would feel crazy for them to do
that. Given how good they were like at
every other position the quarterback last year, but
there's got to be some chance that that's what they do.
And and removing that chance entirely makes Also, the
different pic. Yeah.
Yeah, I agree. Other teams that that stand out
here, I think the Giants are super cheap.
I think, you know, they're likely to add a free agent,
water Seaver, or maybe someone in the giraffe.
So I think it's a little bit tough to like project Hodgins
and Slayton and Bellinger as like the top, pass catchers now
because I think a lot will change in their passing room but
if Those are the top guys. I think that like, you know, you
can always back door, a Daniel Jones, giant stack that I think
I was pretty solid weekly upside given Jones's rushing.
And, you know, you can always connect on a deep ball to
Slayton or random touchdown to Ballinger.
So I like that one. If you're sort of feeling boxed
out of stacks later and drafts, anything else standing out to
you guys here, as a teams that are either too cheaper, too
expensive for these double stacks.
I mean the Giants one does stand out to me, I've been surprised
with now that we have so much Clarity, they're getting the
band back together with Daniel Jones and Berkeley, like the
fact that Slayton and Hodgins and Richie James are also cheap
and we're all really good at different points in the playoffs
and down the stretch last year. I really am a little confused
about that ATP. I mean Dallas, I guess so like
theoretically Dallas looks a little bit low, but then you
realize that it's, like, McCarthy and Brian
Schottenheimer in charge. So, it's like sure.
Yeah, Dak and CD, and, and gallop, and these guys had
crazy, you know, like like Thermo nuclear ceilings in given
weeks, but it's just like, I don't know.
How much are they going to be able to access that and are they
gonna draft another? The running back and cut.
See, what are they gonna do for? Third wide, receiver.
They going to play Jim Tolbert or is they can assign Odell
Beckham like what are they gonna do?
So at first blush, it looked a little bit low but after
actually saying all that out loud, I'm like yeah no I think I
get it. I think it makes me think it's
not right? Yeah, it's tough to to project
you that that second guy is going to be anyways, Pete, I
know you have a hard out at you. I think, Davis and I will stay
on for a bit longer to talk a few, a few more points here on
the market movement, but You leave?
Do you have your favorite value right now, by ATP that you want
to want to tap out? Well, we have mentioned him on
the show, but I feel like I'm selecting Marvin memes.
And basically, every draft I'm doing right now and he does just
feel like a guy who's going to continue to jump off like I
wouldn't be surprised to see him.
You know you think back to like last year were Alec Pierce ended
up as just like a 13th 14th round pick and almost every
draft I feel like Mims is like almost certainly headed there if
not maybe a smidge higher. And I like that one.
I got I got no issue with that. I think he's gonna be I think
leaving before the draft rise 30 spots or so, so we'll see.
Well thank you guys for having me.
Great work with the show. Thank you guys, everyone for
hanging out. I'm going to dip but these two
will hold down the fort. See a bigger Peter.
Anything else here you wanted to to touch on from a team
perspective? I guess the only other one for
me, besides, sometimes we already talked about.
I think the Rams we talked about before, that's a good one, but
maybe maybe a new one that I'll throw out here is is Denver.
I'm not super confident in it, but I think, you know,
quarterbacks do have just bad seasons and Russell Wilson's
version of a Bad season was much worse.
And what we've seen from, you know, Aaron Rodgers down years
in Green Bay or Tom Brady's down ears on the Patriots.
But I think the market does tend to overreact these outlier down
years for guys. Sometimes and it certainly, you
know, I'm not going to be building my teams with 25%,
Russell, Wilson's tax. But I think Denver is, is pretty
fairly priced. And you can do like a mega stack
of them in a pretty affordable way and just bet on Russell
Wilson sort of returning to form with a coach.
That's not my thing. You'll Hackett.
I don't hate that one because it could just be sort of similar to
the Jaguar stuff. This last year, just betting
that Nathaniel hack. It was just like an all-time
loser. Who's got no ability to control
or understand? An NFL locker room.
I like that another one. Honestly, the New England
Patriots, just like having an offensive Feels like it could be
an edge because they were not, they were, you know, they were
not they were dated blow the doors off anyone on offense in
2021, but they were a lot lot better on offense than they were
in 2022. Sounds like they're pretty much
running everything back except we're moving Jacoby Myers who,
you know, Jacoby and Meyers, would sort of like, you'll get
Jamison Crowder, like he can volume Spike.
He was nice, especially weeks where he scored a touchdown.
Down. But you got to figure removing
him from the offense, just opens up a bunch of targets for other
guys who have been really hard to keep on fantasy rosters, the
last couple of years and and they'll probably draft someone
maybe they make a trade, you know, maybe Hunter Henry evolves
into a larger role. Maybe they finally figure out
how to use jaanu like you, I think you can definitely stack
Matt Jones with the running backs with pierced wrong with
Kevin Harris. Whoever like it, just feels like
The Patriots will, at least you copy, they'll be a competent
team and every team ahead of them looks non competent.
The Buccaneers will be non competent, the Titans will be
non competent, the notes will probably be non competent.
I like that one a lot actually. And the interesting thing on
this chart is I think it actually under cells, how cheap
they are because Jacoby Myers is that red dashed in the chart and
he's likely gone. So, if you take him out of the
equation, I think doing Even jumps like Carolina and Houston
as being like the absolute. Just most Dirt Cheap team and
fantasy right now. So yeah, I like that quite a
bit. I don't know this at exactly.
But I think in 20 21, 22 years ago, the Patriots were a top 10
scoring offense, an offense in the league like that Jones.
Had a good rookie year, you know?
Now they were something. They're like, I think they were
like top 5 Indie, be away on offense, in 2012.
And then you hire, you know, two of the biggest cloud show failed
coaches in the league as your Co offensive coordinators, even
though they've never coached offense before and surprisingly
that didn't work, but it's really nice that yeah, that was
around this but yeah, I like that one quite a bit actually
don't think of taking any Maxi on Stacks, but you've definitely
you definitely sold me on that one.
Some gross, you know, backdoor Mac, Jones taekwon Thornton
Hunter, Henry stacks, Which you can get like 16th 18th to 20th
round or something right now. So we're going to get, we're
going to get Bailey's a peed on this.
Yeah, that's that. Actually I mean I don't want to
I'm a Patriots fan so I can talk more about that.
But I think that is at least worth monitoring in the
offseason what the buzz is there, because yeah, I don't
know how much Bella check the belcheck, Matt Jones
relationship. I don't know how strong that is
right now, so I'm monitoring that but I'm not I'm not going
to draft and he's happy right now.
I think, let's move on there. Yeah let's talk about the
positional ADP stuff. I didn't want to hit on this on
the show. Actually I would recommend
everyone. Check out this article that
Haydn wrote a couple weeks ago where he looked at the
positional ADP this year verse verse last year, basically,
highlighted that running backs are going much cheaper, both
quarterbacks, and wide receivers.
Is are more expensive. So I sort of took my own stab at
visualizing this here sort of Leon look want to look at, is
the black bar represents the current average ATP of the
positional group. So, for quarterbacks for
examples, they're going on, average at like, pick 50
quarterbacks 1 through 12 in 2022.
So, last year, when you're drafting Basketball Mania teams
in August and September, the average quarter quarterback, one
was going at pick like 70 by 80. So they've risen on average
almost by like 20 spots by ATP quarterback wants.
And that's sort of been offset by running backs, Falling by a
similar amount, running running backs, one and running back to
so running backs ranked one through 24 have dropped by about
20 spots from last year. So yeah I just thought like I'm
still thinking through how actionable this is.
And like the quarterback stuff is toxic as been.
Talked a lot about so far but like Like I don't know.
Part of me is wondering if there's like our running backs
just universally like mispriced right now and I should be like
like okay with taking guys in The Dead Zone because guys that
are going in the dead zone now actually like in past years
would be going in the second round and those types of players
up get hit rates. Like, I don't know.
I think there's a lot of things like to think about here and
what the implications are for Fantasy.
But yeah, curious what your thoughts are of just running
backs, being much cheaper and both quarterbacks and receivers
being being more expensive honored a group under it.
Right now. I mean, yeah, you just hit it,
which is that for every, for every, for every action, there
needs to be an equal and opposite reaction.
Not only our quarterbacks being pushed up, but wide receivers
are being pushed up as well. Jalen waddle, second round pick
T. Higgins.
Second round pick. Do you want the Smith Chris, a
lava. Do you like these?
Guys are DeAndre Hopkins being picked very high for a guy
who's, like, 32 very uncertain. What team, he's going to be
playing for Amari Cooper. I think a great example of a guy
being Drafted like, very high given the context of the offense
that he plays in Christian Watson, Crick and Watson.
I mean, yeah, sure ran ran like, God would touch Downs.
I think he's obviously very good, right?
I'm not meaning. And I'm not even saying, I don't
get it. But the idea that, for example,
Christian Watson would be, you know, on average, going ahead of
D'Andre Swift or Dalvin cook or his teammate, Aaron Jones, or
Damien Pierce. This is an ATP that does not
make any sense, day me. A Was a stone Workhorse young
crazy athletic. The offense is going to be so
much better this year, right? I mean, like the Davis Mills,
Jeff driskel nonsense, like, at the very least, you were gonna
have a competent High upside quarterback in that room.
Like, yeah, I mean that that is basically just the lesson is
that these running backs, are these running backs are
especially in half. PPR, there's full PP arches,
grafting scoring. I think I think there's actually
We an argument that they're actually probably just being
priced appropriately and even inside of ATP, it looks like
some of the adp's to me are bad and there are exploitable like
David Montgomery, and Jamaal Williams are both free agents
right now. Why would Jim always be going
ahead of David Montgomery? Whatever, team signs David
Montgomery is going to sign him to be David Montgomery.
You know where's Jamaal Williams?
Has not earned. That cachet.
There's a pretty big age Gap with those guys, too.
I think so. yeah, that would make sense to me but that I
thought your Watson point was really interesting because like
I think that this like it's sort of emblematic of how we like
these simple heuristics and fantasy football, which is, you
know, draft second year wide receivers that flashed in a year
one because traditionally those guys have always outperform hit
rates but guys like Christian Watson who like played, you
know, only six or seven games as a full-time player would not
have been going like in the The early fourth round, you know,
three, four, five years ago, there's an argument, he wasn't
even the best, rookie wide receiver on his team.
There's an argument that Romeo Dobbs is actually like a more
functional player who is like used in a more varied style than
Watson was. But it's like, yeah, even like
I'm thinking maybe the best cop in recent years is like I, you
can sort of a similar like had this crazy stretch, then, to the
year, we had a ton of huge like we're or Debo where it's all
touchdowns. Yeah, or Deebo.
Those guys were going like I think second year at York was
going in the seventh or eighth before at the very end of the
year, like surging up to the fifth sixth.
Like, now, these guys are starting the year like in March,
as a fourth-round pick like and I'm not saying I'm totally out
on Watson. I'm not sure about I'm not, I'm
not either but that is a huge sea change for the last 30 years
of fantasy football. Yeah, you have to really yeah.
Like I think that's something I'm going to try to hammer this
offseason is like these. These are risks that were Worked
in years past like once they're fully baked into the market
prices, you can no longer. Like I think another one is like
draft rookie wide receivers early, like they're gonna rise
as the season goes on, like I think that's no longer true.
Like jsn is going at pick 50. Like I'm not, I don't think he's
going to rise unless he gets picked by like the bills or
chiefs, right? Like I don't know, these are
risks. I think we have to be very
careful about in this new landscape where everyone loves a
lot receivers and hates running backs, like it's no longer.
Of the same game that we're playing, especially when a lot
of these like studies that we rely on rppr and this game on I
was happy PR. So it's really interesting like
you have to adjust the market at some point.
Like I'm not just only hammering running backs and rounds three
through six is there's all this data like you still need to take
wide receivers obviously. But you got to be careful with
with some of this stuff on the landscape changes, this
dramatically. I think, I mean, I would say
probably the biggest point that we just hit on There is that
have PR and full? PPR a different game.
The same way that the MBA when they added the three-point line
became a different game like it just actually a huge difference.
Those points are so those reception points are so big and
account for so much of the scoring in full, PPR and and
diminish so much and their value in half PBR.
And and also because the total number of points decreases the
Value of a Russian yard increases, you know so like a
tea, set 87, rushing yards in in ffp.
See it's like who gives a shit you know but in 21, carries 21,
carries 87 yards and a touchdown is a pretty good stat line in
Underdog. That's the that's a mile Sanders
right there. Right is now Sanders lamothe
Sanders the the algae are the? Yeah.
That's your thesis.
Yeah. So anyways, I I just, I thought
I thought this positional stuff is interesting.
I'll I definitely want to, I think like part of it, you could
argue to is that the type of drafter that's drafting right
now is sort of like the yes, a dynasty sicko that loves wide
receivers and hates running backs.
Like we're we also, you know, in the grand scheme of those
things, we kind of, you know, fit in that bucket, you know,
when you consider the whole pool of fantasy players.
So it'll be interesting to see if these kind of normalize, as
more casuals enter, or if this is truly like the You the new
landscape we live in an underdog but we'll keep monitoring it.
Let's wrap up your Davis as we try to do in every show I want
to hear what your best. What you think the best value is
right now on under tog in terms of closing line value by August
and September 22 at well eat 22 at well 22 out well as
undrafted. I mean he finally put.
Yeah he finally played last year and didn't die.
Tie that would like that. It's gotta be a huge upset.
That 22 was finally, like pretty much.
Let's see, how many what was his most snaps in a game.
I'm going to guess he played at least one game of 70% snaps, I
think. Oh yeah I think by the end T he
yeah he was he was getting was 92 93 percent eighty four
percent sixty nine eighty four. He got through a month of NFL
football as a full-time player and was not depleted into
another Universe. I think that's super bullish.
So I got I got to to at well as as a big value right now I like
that and you know Alan Robinson's, I think completely
gone. You know, Vin Jefferson.
I think Jefferson's also a fine pick if you want to take him.
Sure, he's really cheap as well but someone on the Rams is going
to step up and we know the Rams don't have a ton of cap space or
anything to acquire, guys. So I'm trying to pull up that.
Well now to see I think like if I remember correctly was kind of
spiking on some of like my usage stuff by the end of the year
because they were they were giving him they were giving him
rushes to. Yeah, he had 20% targets
throughout Iran which is pretty solid.
One point seven yards per down again, like all I'd like you
didn't you didn't face planting his opportunity it wasn't like
special but it certainly was was solid enough that I think at a
completely free cost he is With a vet there for me, I think I'm
gonna go with something. We talked about earlier will
Levis and it's, you know, I'm not going to remake the Justin
Herbert. Zach Wilson, you know, Daniel
Jones argument that that I've heard you and Pat talked about a
bunch but it's just when the quarterback with the hydraulic
draft Capital that everyone you know agrees that they suck.
Well maybe they don't and especially if they're completely
free. I'm On taking stabs, I think
Levis gets drafted to a spot where he's going to project a
start. They want.
I think, is most likely Landing spots will be like the Colts
Raiders teams like that. Maybe feels feels.
Feels like the Colts is kind of his Destiny.
Yeah. Yeah, if Garretson II mean I was
very certain car was going to go to the cold so now of cars not
going to do it feels like feels like leave us, is at the next of
the You know Carson Wentz Evolution he's like he's like
the base form, you know? Yeah, I think we'll find out
soon who they're taking that or say is definitely gonna let it
slip in a press conference or something.
Who they, who they like you almost.
You almost did last time you talked.
So yeah he's definitely he's definitely just gonna tweet it
out. Like this is roof is open
tweets. It'll just be will love us.
Is the picot 4? Yeah.
Okay let's let's close things down.
Quick housekeeping stuff, I will be out next week.
The show will continue on David's and Pat.
I believe we'll both be holding it down eventually with people.
Actually, with someone else, we will see, but we'll still have
all the same charge of everything for you next week
that part of the show will not go away.
But yeah, excited to see what news breaks in the next week.
I think we'll have some more free agency news and you know,
cuts and trades and stuff to to discuss.
But yeah, anything else you do? This, for shut things down.
Nope, that's all everyone. Thank you.
Thank you for listening, Pat. And I'll be back next week and
we will, we will continue to grind.
Sounds good. All right, thanks everyone for
joining us today. We will see you next week.