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As we put Week 13 in the books, 
we are now well and truly past 

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Cope season. 
We're into the homestretch of 

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the fantasy season. 
Next week we'll decide which 

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teams move on to the Fantasy 
play offs. 

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We'll take you through all the 
players that we think are the 

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most exciting to have on your 
teams as you head into the play 

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offs and more on stat chasing 
Pat Fryer, Helmo Anita hand job.

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Fix your sight. 
Jamar Alpha, play Chase. 

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You can't handle the heat. 
It looks like we're fine with 

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this, boys. 
You're right. 

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Good evening, Draco. 
Man, the season really flies by.

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I mean, I feel like. 
Just the year flies by. 

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I kind of believe it's already 
December. 

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No, yeah. 
I mean, just like just a week 

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ago, it feels like we were 
coping that maybe all these 

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running backs that were off to 
hot starts, we're going to slow 

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down. 
And you know, age is. 

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Going to happen if anything, 
they they, they speed it up, 

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they speed. 
No, yeah. 

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I mean, in in the first couple 
weeks, we didn't realize that we

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were being lowered into the 
grave and they've just been 

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covering us with dirt for the 
past few weeks. 

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So. 
This week they started actually 

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dancing on top of the the the 
the the completely packed and 

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freshly laid gravesite. 
Yeah, yeah, we're, we're almost 

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to that point. 
But you know, there, there are 

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some glimmers of hope for for 
people that subscribe to the way

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that we draft basketball teams. 
You know, there, there are some 

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things coming on here down the 
stretch where you, you do have a

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reason to think maybe you know 
one of the teams of my 10% 

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advance rate. 
Right. 

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What, what, what? 
What has been particularly 

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brutal is is the low scores 
overall while Saquon and and 

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other running backs put up big 
scores. 

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So it's but I think it's not 
just that they're putting up big

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scores, it's also that lots of 
the other score scoring is down.

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Right. 
Yeah. 

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Like wide wide receiver scoring 
has just been like a little 

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muted. 
I mean, a big part of that is 

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when you look across like the 
top receivers of the league, the

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guys who have led in scoring 
over the last few seasons, like 

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CD Lamb dealing with multiple 
injuries, doesn't have a 

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quarterback right now. 
Justin Jefferson, not in the 

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worst situation of all the elite
wide receivers, but he does have

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Sam Darnold as his quarterback. 
So it's certainly not the best 

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situation he's been in in his 
career. 

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You know, Tyree kill, apparently
the guys wrist is just fully 

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detached from his arm. 
You know, there's no ligament 

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even really holding it on. 
It's just a it's a sock of meat 

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that's on the end of his arm. 
He's just trying to catch the 

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ball at one hand that every 
time. 

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Yeah, basically. 
I mean, like almond raw has been

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pretty good. 
Really With almond raw, though, 

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it's like because I was, I was 
talking to some people about 

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like how I felt like almond raw 
was like a little disappointing 

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with where you drafted him. 
He's got a well above average 

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advance rate, but it's, it's 
really coming more through like 

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the absolute consistency, the 
floor. 

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Like when I, when I do the 
Sortino ratio stuff for this 

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year, like he's gonna be a 
Sortino ratio monster. 

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The guy just, you know, never, 
never has a down game. 

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He never busts. 
He's always having, you know, an

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average to above average game. 
And so he's not, he's had like 2

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legitimate spike weeks and other
than that been a little 

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disappointing. 
And then A.J. 

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Brown, who looks fantastic while
he's out there, or I should say 

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while they're passing, is on the
team that is now throwing less 

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than the Steelers. 
Like so there's just like all 

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these round one receivers and I 
mean like even you get into puka

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like guy missed half the season 
with injury. 

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So you have all of these, you 
know, receivers who should be 

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our top. 
Let me, yeah, let me read you 

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the the top five receivers by 
points per game. 

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So Jamar Chase and PBR 22.7. 
Rashi Rice 21.6. 

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Stop. 
Chris Godwin 19.7. 

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Nico Collins 19.5 T Higgins 18.4
Cooper Cup 18.2. 

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So that's like six or five of 
the top six top scoring per game

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have missed all missed 
significant time, like 

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significant time. 
That's it, that that. 

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That's a pretty rough way for 
the receiver season to go. 

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Hey, do you remember when people
said you shouldn't draft Jamar 

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Chase and T Higgins together on 
basketball teams because there's

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no way they could both get 
there? 

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And you're you're really going 
to hurt your ceiling in the 

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playoff weeks? 
I remember that. 

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I yeah, I remember that too. 
And anyway, we we should 

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probably get to the the the the 
stats. 

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Yeah. 
So we'll dive into the 

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quarterback chart here. 
If you're, if you're new here, 

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welcome. 
Thank you for joining us in Week

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13. 
Our quarterback chart on the X 

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axis is displaying the expected 
fantasy points from passing. 

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This is really just a volume 
metric. 

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It's showing you, you know, how 
much are these teams actually 

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throwing. 
And then the Y axis is our 

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adjusted yards per attempt. 
That's an efficiency metric. 

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It's letting you know how 
efficient these passers are 

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being with their opportunity. 
Obviously, higher is better 

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here. 
And then the size of the data 

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point for each of the 
quarterbacks is indicating how 

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many rushing yards on average 
they are running for in a game. 

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And we've got the handy 
reference bubble in the bottom 

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right corner that shows what 100
rushing yards per game would 

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look like. 
I think that's the first time I 

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introduced the QB chart, Rico. 
I think that is. 

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So I normally refer to them as 
the horizontal and and vertical 

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axis because I always forget 
which axis corresponds to X and 

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which is Y. 
So I'm just going to remember 

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now that the 1X on the bottom, 
that's the, that's the, that's 

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the X axis. 
There you go. 

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That's that's the little hint 
that I left in there for you. 

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I, I kind of wanted to start 
with, I, I want to frame this 

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stuff around the fantasy 
playoffs as we're approaching. 

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And so I wanted to start with a 
question of which three 

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quarterbacks are you most 
excited to see on your 

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basketball rosters right now? 
When you scroll through all of 

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our FFPC teams with hilarious 
names, might I add, many of 

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which are not advancing on the 
few that are advancing when you 

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open them up, what quarterbacks 
do you want to see there? 

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So you want to see Joe Burrow, 
you want to see Lamar and I know

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you had it and a third one and 
that's so good to you. 

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I can't quite recall it. 
Those are the, I mean, I guess 

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the other one that you you're 
pumped about is that Bonex given

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the price like you're pretty 
pumped to bring in Bonex and QB 

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to the playoffs. 
You're pre you'd be pretty happy

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with a Baker Mayfield team. 
I yeah, both of those. 

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Are pretty. 
I think those, I think those are

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the big ones. 
The other one I'm I'm interested

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in is Justin Herbert. 
I just I think that, you know, 

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you've seen now more rushing 
upside with him and they've 

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shown the ability to have the 
spike games. 

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And again, he was pretty cheap, 
not quite as cheap as Baker. 

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But I mean, for all intents and 
purposes, this is something I, 

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I've been talking about with 
the, I think the thing that we 

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and and and I talked about this 
extensively this last season, 

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like the difference in actual 
cost, what you're paying for a 

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player becomes almost nothing in
the later rounds. 

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Like the difference between 
round 13 and round 15 is very, 

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very little. 
Difference between round 14 and 

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round 18 is very, very little. 
And so sure was, you know, 

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Justin Herbert a little bit more
expensive than Baker Mayfield. 

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Yeah. 
But like the opportunity cost 

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was nothing. 
You know, you're like, oh, no, I

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missed out on a Jalen Wright. 
You know, like you're not you're

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not actually giving anything up 
in the moment. 

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It feels like you're giving 
something up to take the earlier

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quarterback compared to the 
later one, but it's really not 

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anything. 
And so I I think we need to do 

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better at I I'll, I'll speak for
myself. 

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I need to do better still at 
kind of decoupling ADP from the 

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cost of a player. 
Once you get past really like 

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once you're past like the 10th, 
12th round, like it's just not a

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thing anymore. 
Like you're, you're better off 

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just removing ADP from your app 
and not even looking at it. 

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It's really only just like a it,
it gives you some hint as to 

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what order your opponents might 
take the player in. 

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It shouldn't do anything as far 
as like your actual assessment 

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of like how good a player is. 
So that all all to say, like any

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of these kind of later pocket 
passers that are hitting and and

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Bonex and Herbert do have the 
rushing upside. 

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Baker even has has shown some 
rushing upside. 

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00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:45,400
But I agree with you all of 
those guys. 

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I'm pretty happy to see him on 
my teams, and I certainly agree 

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with you on Lamar and Burrow. 
Just just I know we have this 

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comment from Don about Bo Nicks 
not rushing at all that that's 

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actually true. 
His his his rushing yardage is 

167
00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:06,040
expecting rushing yardage is 
expecting rushing TDs have all 

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plummeted in the last month. 
I will note that his expected 

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points from passing at 14 1/2, 
that's still that's still pretty

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good. 
So that's in the last four, just

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a four week rolling average 
there and that's still pretty 

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good. 
So like a starting and fairly 

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efficient pocket passer at Bonex
price is still really good. 

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00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:39,880
And I I don't think that upside 
has has has just like left like 

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00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:42,360
you could still see a game where
he has a rushing attempt. 

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00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:45,360
So he just, it doesn't seem like
he needs to to get going 

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00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:47,160
anymore. 
Yeah. 

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00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:50,400
I also think that just with the 
back injury he's been dealing 

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with that that's kind of, you 
know, I, I think that's tamp 

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00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:56,520
down his desire to run. 
He's probably a little bit more 

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00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:59,200
tentative as a runner. 
Injured from carrying the team 

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on his back. 
Yeah, I mean, very much so. 

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00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:06,800
So I don't wanna, I'm not gonna 
say like Bo Nix's rushing upside

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00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:11,040
is now entirely gone. 
I think it's reasonable to say 

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00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,160
that it's we should adjust 
diminished. 

186
00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:16,480
Yeah, it is diminished and we 
should adjust what we're 

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00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:20,000
expecting from that. 
But would I be terribly 

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00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:24,200
surprised if in Week 17, Bonex 
rushes for 50 yards because he's

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00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:26,560
finally healthy and and they 
need that to win the game? 

190
00:11:26,560 --> 00:11:30,040
No, I wouldn't. 
So but but yes reasonable to 

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00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:34,000
adjust our prior for how much we
would expect him to rush 

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00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:36,760
basically the. 
UM, and I I understand, do you 

193
00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:39,960
know what this comment is? 
When 6 QBs go in the top 13 

194
00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:41,800
picks? 
Is this referring referring to? 

195
00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:43,760
This has got to be, yeah, this 
has got to be playoff 

196
00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:48,480
basketball, which I guess leads 
into our next topic here. 

197
00:11:48,640 --> 00:11:53,240
Well, yeah, I mean, I guess 
you're not. 

198
00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:55,680
You're not really left with that
many QBs after that, are you? 

199
00:11:56,440 --> 00:12:01,200
Yeah, I don't someone, someone 
somewhere has Houston ranked 

200
00:12:01,560 --> 00:12:05,600
like highly. 
Just I've noticed people like 

201
00:12:06,280 --> 00:12:11,480
being quite willing to pass on 
these to, to me and, and to the 

202
00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:14,480
playoff odds. 
There are 5 quarterbacks that 

203
00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:17,920
are very important and it's 
Buffalo, Kansas City, Baltimore,

204
00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:21,000
Philadelphia and Detroit. 
Those are the five quarterbacks 

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00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:23,400
that are very, very important 
for playoff basketball. 

206
00:12:23,560 --> 00:12:26,680
And they're kind of meta 
defining right now where you 

207
00:12:26,680 --> 00:12:30,280
need to get one of those five 
because they represent such a 

208
00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:33,200
large portion of the Super 
Bowls. 

209
00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:37,600
Those five quarterbacks have the
vast majority of Super Bowls. 

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00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:41,000
They they represent, you know, 
of all the Super Bowl matchups 

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00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:43,920
that could possibly happen, 
those five are making up a ton 

212
00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:46,600
of them. 
Houston does not make up that 

213
00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:49,360
many Super Bowl matchups. 
I'll, I'll pull up our, our 

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00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:53,760
playoff SIM results here really 
quick just because I think this 

215
00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:55,640
is important. 
I I've seen a lot of people 

216
00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:57,240
doing this and I think it's 
quite bad. 

217
00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:01,120
People will. 
So I'm seeing here that they're 

218
00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:05,120
8% to make the the Super Bowl 
based on ESPN. 

219
00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:09,120
I don't know how good ESPN data 
is. 

220
00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:13,880
The ESPN model when we checked 
it is, is pretty decent. 

221
00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:19,640
We've got Houston as just about 
14 1/2 percent to make the 

222
00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:22,800
conference championship and I 
would assume that they are 

223
00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:25,560
probably a dog against whoever 
they would face. 

224
00:13:25,560 --> 00:13:29,680
Also, we have some more updates 
that they just take a little in 

225
00:13:29,680 --> 00:13:32,520
our in our SIM. 
We're using the actual results 

226
00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:36,080
of the games, and then we're 
also adjusting the strength of 

227
00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:38,080
the teams based on what has 
happened. 

228
00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:40,480
Those adjustments take a little 
longer. 

229
00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:43,560
The schedule results are in. 
So we already have the results 

230
00:13:43,560 --> 00:13:47,960
of the week 13 games in the SIM,
and we're seeing about 14 1/2% 

231
00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:50,240
of the time Houston makes the 
conference championship. 

232
00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:53,720
They're very likely a dog 
against whoever they would face 

233
00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:56,040
in the conference championship. 
So they're probably less than 

234
00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:57,920
50%. 
So yeah, I would say they're 

235
00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:02,040
probably somewhere around 7, you
know, sub 7% to make the Super 

236
00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:04,400
Bowl. 
The thing that I think is quite 

237
00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:07,160
bad in playoff basketball right 
now that I see a lot of people 

238
00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:10,960
doing, people that I typically 
would assume would know better 

239
00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:13,240
just 'cause they're like, 
they're people that are in the 

240
00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:17,560
streets often they're like 
intentionally passing on one of 

241
00:14:17,560 --> 00:14:22,240
these top five quarterbacks to 
load up on strong skill position

242
00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:24,720
players on high playoff 
probability teams. 

243
00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:28,560
And then they're taking Houston 
as their back stack option. 

244
00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:32,920
Don't get it wrong, I I'm not 
saying you can never draft 

245
00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:37,400
Houston, but for me that is a 
backup option that is like, Oh 

246
00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:41,480
no, the room forced me into 
Houston as my primary Super Bowl

247
00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:45,120
team. 
It's OK, I'm not dead, but I 

248
00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:46,720
don't want to do this very 
often. 

249
00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:50,920
And I see people that are 
setting out to do it in damn 

250
00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:53,960
near every draft. 
I think you're punting if you're

251
00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:57,600
doing that. 
And, and I'm just gonna be very 

252
00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:00,280
blunt when I talk about playoff 
basketball, 'cause I feel pretty

253
00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:03,520
strongly that I have a good 
enough understanding of the game

254
00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:05,440
to say what is punting and what 
is not. 

255
00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:09,320
And so if I'm saying something 
or, you know, it's, it's 

256
00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:11,440
offensive to you, 'cause I'm 
saying something you're doing is

257
00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:14,960
punting or it's bad. 
It is not meant as an attack on 

258
00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:17,720
your character. 
It is meant to help you plug a 

259
00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:19,400
leak. 
Because I assume if you were 

260
00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:24,200
watching stat chasing in Week 
13, you're either sick or you 

261
00:15:24,200 --> 00:15:27,120
care about being good at fantasy
football. 

262
00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:30,760
And so if I'm telling you that 
something is bad, I'm doing it 

263
00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:33,560
to try and help you. 
So it's it's not a, it's not an 

264
00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:35,680
attack. 
I'm not saying you're a bad 

265
00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:39,520
person, but I will tell you 
straight up if something is bad.

266
00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:44,800
So I'm, I'm going to play a 
little bit of maybe just a 

267
00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:48,880
little bit of of devil's I've 
got here and I'm looking at 

268
00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:53,520
playoffstatus.com. 
And so they have, they have for 

269
00:15:53,520 --> 00:16:00,880
the AFC side, they have the 
Chiefs and, and 42%, they have 

270
00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:10,000
the Bills 28% and and I, I and 
then the Steelers 11%, the 

271
00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:13,040
Ravens 6% on on the playoff 
probabilities. 

272
00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:18,680
I guess the question is like 
these odds seem to make it seem 

273
00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:23,400
like it's, it's like it's a slam
dunk that the, that the Super 

274
00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:26,360
Bowl, sorry, there, there's a 
Super Bowl probability that the 

275
00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:29,040
Super Bowl is basically either 
going to be the Chiefs or the 

276
00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:32,600
Bills. 
Yeah, I well, number one, I 

277
00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:33,840
don't. 
Think that feels a little 

278
00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:35,640
overconfident? 
I don't think that's a 

279
00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:39,800
particularly good source and 
we'll we'll have AII would not 

280
00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:42,160
trust the quality of the outputs
there. 

281
00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:47,240
Not to not to shit on anyone's 
work, but we're going to put up 

282
00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:52,560
our SIM results on leg up here. 
We're we're working on getting 

283
00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:57,600
an app page up so you can sort 
and filter by the different 

284
00:16:57,600 --> 00:17:00,080
teams and see all the matchups 
and things like that. 

285
00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:03,320
So we'll have that up on 
legendary upside. 

286
00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:08,880
So you can go and see the source
of the playoff SIM results that 

287
00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:12,119
are powering the sidekick. 
You do not need to be a sidekick

288
00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:15,200
to your subscriber to see those 
SIM results. 

289
00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:17,920
We'll have those up. 
I believe it's going to be 

290
00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:19,520
behind the paywall though for 
members. 

291
00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:23,319
So you do need the base level 
leg up subscription to see it, 

292
00:17:23,319 --> 00:17:26,079
but you don't need a sidekick to
your subscription. 

293
00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:32,000
But yeah, I, I feel quite 
confident that our our playoffs 

294
00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,560
end is pretty good. 
Like our numbers are going to be

295
00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:37,560
very reasonable. 
And so anything that's diverging

296
00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:42,520
from that substantial? 
So I guess the question, so the 

297
00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:47,640
question then becomes at least 
on the AFC side, what it, what 

298
00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:51,840
I'm inferring from what you're 
telling me is that it, it goes 

299
00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:56,040
Chiefs, Bills and Ravens and 
Steelers. 

300
00:17:56,040 --> 00:18:01,880
And, and if you're, if you're 
not if like on the AFC side, if 

301
00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:04,200
you don't get one of them, 
you're, you're, you're basically

302
00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:08,360
you're, you're done. 
I would, if you are playing for 

303
00:18:08,360 --> 00:18:13,160
one of the AFC teams to have 
your quarterback, you pretty 

304
00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:17,200
strongly prefer it to be Bills, 
Chiefs or Ravens. 

305
00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:21,000
All of those are above a 40% 
chance of making the conference 

306
00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:24,160
championship. 
And when we when we talk about 

307
00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:27,560
playoff best ball, we typically 
refer to conference championship

308
00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:30,520
appearance odds rather than 
Super Bowl odds because that's 

309
00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:34,320
actually what we're. 
It is easier to play the game 

310
00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:38,960
just from like a mental 
framework optimizing for you, 

311
00:18:39,120 --> 00:18:41,920
maximizing the points you score 
in the conference championship. 

312
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:47,040
And that is very heavily 
correlated to maximizing the 

313
00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:49,960
number of points that you would 
score in a Super Bowl in the 

314
00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:52,160
given Super Bowl scenarios that 
can play out. 

315
00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:57,160
And that's, that's just I. 
I've written extensively about 

316
00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:00,000
this and why that is the correct
way to play the game. 

317
00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:02,520
That article is up on legendary 
upside. 

318
00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:06,800
I'm not going to rehash all of 
the game theory behind that, but

319
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:11,600
framing things in conference 
championship odds is, in my 

320
00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:14,960
opinion, a a better way to do it
when talking about playoff 

321
00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:16,760
basketball. 
So that's that's kind of how 

322
00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:19,720
I'll I'll discuss it. 
But these teams? 

323
00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:26,000
And so, so I, I guess just to 
just to bring us back to Q BS, 

324
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:29,960
I, I know we got a question on 
the Steelers and QB Russell 

325
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:35,720
Wilson and, and to lead that. 
So the I think the reason this 

326
00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:40,280
site has the Ravens so low on on
the conference championship on 

327
00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:43,640
the playoffs is that they're 
currently in a wild card seed 

328
00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:46,440
because the Steelers have like 
the better record right right 

329
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:50,480
now. 
And so with the Steelers being a

330
00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:58,320
non wild card team and what 
likely four or five seed and 

331
00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:05,280
four, three or four seed. 
And then I guess does that make,

332
00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:07,680
does that make Russell Wilson a 
compelling? 

333
00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,400
Pick. 
Yeah, I, I wrote in the show 

334
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:17,080
notes and I knew, I knew that 
Sam Sherman would love this, but

335
00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:20,360
I am drafting Russell Wilson in 
playoff basketball. 

336
00:20:20,360 --> 00:20:23,520
The Steelers right now are one 
of the most mispriced teams. 

337
00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:26,960
You can get George Pickens. 
You can get Najee Harris, Jalen 

338
00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,160
Warren, Russell Wilson, all 
very, very cheaply. 

339
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:35,240
The only one that is at all 
contested typically is George 

340
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:37,720
Pickens. 
He will sometimes get taken by 

341
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:41,960
people as a one off. 
But the Steelers are actually 

342
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:45,800
higher probability of making the
conference championship than the

343
00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:49,040
Texans. 
And yet people are just piling 

344
00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:53,320
into the Texans like it's, you 
know, God's gift to playoff best

345
00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:54,640
ball. 
Like they think they've found 

346
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,440
the skeleton key. 
And meanwhile, they're sitting 

347
00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:00,320
over here just letting the 
Steelers go, you know, 

348
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:05,040
completely free. 
I, I typically prefer to not try

349
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,480
and play the Steelers as my 
primary Super Bowl team. 

350
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:10,880
Obviously there are 
circumstances where the room 

351
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:14,680
just forces you into that and, 
and that's the way you've got to

352
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:18,240
go to build a live team. 
But they're, I think they're a 

353
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:23,320
pretty fantastic team to play to
help you advance bye week teams.

354
00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:26,440
Like if you're playing the 
Lions, I've got a lot of Lions 

355
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,840
Chargers teams, I've got a lot 
of Lions Texans teams, right 

356
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:35,120
where I'm trying to use these. 
Texans teams, you said you have 

357
00:21:35,120 --> 00:21:39,600
a lot of lions I but you just 
shit shit on people for right. 

358
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,760
For for taking it because people
are doing it without a another 

359
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:45,920
quarterback. 
They're doing it where CJ Stroud

360
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:49,120
is their quarterback. 
They're they're playing Texans. 

361
00:21:49,120 --> 00:21:50,640
It's Go. 
To the Super Bowl, It's a single

362
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:52,840
CJ Stroud team. 
Correct. 

363
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:57,720
Yeah, using using the Texans to 
advance a bye we team is 

364
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:01,080
entirely different than playing 
it like the Texans are going to 

365
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:05,040
the Super Bowl, right? 
Because number one, you're more 

366
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,240
than cutting the probability of 
them going to the Super Bowl in 

367
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:09,440
half because they're going to be
a dog in the conference 

368
00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,120
championship game and they're 
only making the conference 

369
00:22:12,120 --> 00:22:14,640
championship about 14 1/2% of 
the time. 

370
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:18,680
I would expect that number goes 
down after we do the strength of

371
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:23,840
the team strength adjustments 
simply because they did not beat

372
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:28,280
Jacksonville with Mac Jones by 
any kind of convincing margin. 

373
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:31,320
Right? 
Like, so I, I don't think the 

374
00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:36,280
Texans are going to look 
particularly strong as far as 

375
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:40,000
like the the overall strength of
teams relative to each other in 

376
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:43,240
the NFL. 
But what I'm, what I'm saying is

377
00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:47,000
the Texans and Chargers are both
very popular ways to try and 

378
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:51,400
advance these bye week teams, 
but the Steelers are much less 

379
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,280
popular. 
They're becoming in vogue 

380
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,360
recently. 
Like I, I talked about it this 

381
00:22:56,360 --> 00:22:59,720
morning on a podcast I did or a 
stream I did with Davis Matic on

382
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:03,040
his YouTube channel. 
And I noticed a lot more people 

383
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:06,760
taking Pittsburgh this morning 
than they're they had been 

384
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,720
previously. 
So it I think it's starting. 

385
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,200
People are starting to come 
around on it, but Pittsburgh is 

386
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:16,440
still certainly too cheap. 
Russ is in fact a a decent pick 

387
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:19,360
in playoff basketball. 
It doesn't change my opinion 

388
00:23:19,360 --> 00:23:22,080
that he is just absolutely sun 
running on efficiency. 

389
00:23:22,360 --> 00:23:25,760
Although I will, as someone who 
tries to be an unbiased analyst,

390
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:29,480
say that he had a particularly 
good game against the Bengals. 

391
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,600
It was different than the normal
Russell Wilson games. 

392
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:34,880
Weirdly. 
Like the normal Russell Wilson 

393
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,960
good games are like he's 
chucking deep balls and they're 

394
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,040
just all getting there and 
you're like how? 

395
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:43,720
How is this guy running so pure?
There was a lot more underneath 

396
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:48,600
stuff against the Bengals, which
was surprising to me that that 

397
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:50,720
was how they chose to attack the
Bengals. 

398
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:54,640
Lot of lot of underneath passing
got Friar Youth going more 

399
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,320
Pickens touchdown actually came 
on a screen pass. 

400
00:23:57,320 --> 00:24:00,880
So like they were they were 
doing more stuff that was 

401
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:02,640
underneath. 
It was it was definitely 

402
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:05,280
different than how Russell 
Wilson has typically. 

403
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:09,280
They also had an A + 11% pass 
rate over expected. 

404
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:11,680
Yeah. 
I mean, I think that. 

405
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:15,360
That that makes me think that 
maybe the Bengals are like a 

406
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:19,160
yeah, a a defensive target. 
Oh, absolutely. 

407
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,600
The Bengals are are probably one
of the best fantasy matchups you

408
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:26,200
can get, not only because of how
poor to their defense is, but 

409
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:28,040
because of how pass heavy they 
are. 

410
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:31,320
And, and I actually was talking 
about this with Korain. 

411
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:35,720
We were talking about how the 
Steelers, the worst thing that 

412
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,000
can happen for the Steelers in 
the playoffs, we were talking 

413
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,760
about it in the context of 
playoff bestball, is they run 

414
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:45,280
into a team like the Ravens or 
they run into a team like the 

415
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:49,200
Texans, where these teams are 
happy to run the ball right? 

416
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,280
Both, both sides are happy to 
run. 

417
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:56,000
And then I feel like that is the
Steelers, you know, secret 

418
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,680
kryptonite. 
You don't actually want as a, 

419
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:02,000
you know, someone who's a 
Steeler's backer, you don't want

420
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:05,360
them to run into a match up 
where both sides are gonna be 

421
00:25:05,360 --> 00:25:08,320
content running the ball. 
It's actually a lot worse for 

422
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,720
the Steelers. 
You really want them to get in a

423
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:13,400
situation where they're forced 
to throw because they're 

424
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:15,640
breaking tendency to go pass 
heavy. 

425
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:19,240
They're still gonna run. 
But so much of what the Steelers

426
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:23,240
do is they're having success 
through this play action where 

427
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,680
they're they're play actioning. 
Teams are expecting them to run.

428
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,240
Russ is taking these deep shots 
and they're super efficient at 

429
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:32,560
it. 
And So what you want is you want

430
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:35,560
a game where they're forced to 
throw a little more because I 

431
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:38,360
don't even think NFL teams 
believe the Steelers want to 

432
00:25:38,360 --> 00:25:41,000
throw even when they're in 
circumstances where they should 

433
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,720
be throwing it. 
It's catching them by surprise. 

434
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:48,480
And so that I think your, your 
ideal scenario is you want the 

435
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:52,120
Steelers to face a pass happy 
team in the playoffs. 

436
00:25:52,120 --> 00:25:54,640
If you're using them to get 
through week 1, they're like, 

437
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:58,120
oh, please don't put me against 
the Ravens where both teams are 

438
00:25:58,120 --> 00:26:00,360
just happy to pound the ball 
into each other's faces or 

439
00:26:00,360 --> 00:26:03,000
something like give me, give me 
someone that's going to be pass 

440
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:03,960
happy here. 
So. 

441
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:10,720
So just the other, I think the 
other angle we can talk about 

442
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:17,120
with with quarterbacks is so 
this is the last week for, for 

443
00:26:17,120 --> 00:26:22,720
waivers in FFPC and it's only 
teams that made the regular 

444
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:26,360
season playoffs that can make 
waiver pickups. 

445
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:30,840
But it's, it's the last week. 
So there's some pretty big, I 

446
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:35,280
think considerations for a 
select few teams and that made 

447
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:39,040
it and and don't have like a 
Josh Allen or Lamar or something

448
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:45,840
like that as to what to do with 
your QB 2 and QB 3 and 11 

449
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:47,480
player. 
That I think is pretty 

450
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:53,800
interesting is that is Jim is 
just because you do, I guess 

451
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,960
when you're when you're doing 
these projections, you do have 

452
00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:58,120
that kind of nice. 
Where? 

453
00:26:58,120 --> 00:27:01,400
Where is he on the art chart 
here for expected points? 

454
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,440
He. 
Is I guess he's only at 12 

455
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:09,800
expected points from passing and
which that's the I I, I'm I'm a 

456
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:14,040
little surprised by that. 
And but he does he does drop 

457
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:19,600
Cincinnati week 17. 
Oh man, they they get the 

458
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:22,520
Steelers next week or this week,
which isn't great. 

459
00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:26,400
The Chiefs. 
And but those are I, I think 

460
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:28,760
those are like fine matchups 
where like the Browns are going 

461
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:32,080
to the Browns want to push it. 
Those are teams that that will 

462
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:36,280
probably push the Browns and 
then finishing up with against 

463
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,680
the Bengals Week 17. 
I I think that's a pretty 

464
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:40,400
strong, yeah, pretty strong pick
up. 

465
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,560
Oh, that's, I mean, that's a 
great call, Draco, I think. 

466
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:48,320
I mean, Jameis Winston for all 
the money in week 17 sounds like

467
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:53,320
one of the most fun fantasy 
football experiences, I imagine.

468
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:59,600
I mean, 'cause you, you just 
have like Jameis is gonna Jamis,

469
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:03,640
you know, like could he go out 
there and throw 3 interceptions 

470
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,160
at only 120 yards? 
Absolutely. 

471
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,000
But he also could go out there 
and throw 500 yards, 4 

472
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,600
touchdowns and three picks like 
he did that game against the. 

473
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:20,440
Bronx, it's probably an issue 
with with my data charting and 

474
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:24,480
how I did it. 
I'm getting Jim is at about 15.3

475
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,840
expected points from passing. 
It might, it might be that he 

476
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:30,920
came in in relief in a couple 
games and we're. 

477
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,720
OK, right, right. 
It it also because. 

478
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:38,720
I see in the chat Nick said 
Broncos get the Bengals Week 17.

479
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:43,400
So unfortunately we were, we 
were wrong about yeah, who who 

480
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:46,040
are who did the Browns play? 
I I barely remember. 

481
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:50,880
Oh, oh, oh, It's Week 16 that 
they play in, which is still 

482
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:52,320
important. 
Yeah, yeah. 

483
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:56,200
In the shootout, the Browns. 
The Browns get the Dolphins. 

484
00:28:56,840 --> 00:29:01,320
Could it could still be fun? 
That's so Chiefs, Bengals, 

485
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,640
Dolphins is a pretty good 
fantasy schedule. 

486
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:05,160
Yeah, definitely could still be 
fun. 

487
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:11,560
Like for for shootout purposes, 
week 16 is just as important as 

488
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:15,800
week 17. 
Yeah. 

489
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:20,080
That's pretty FFC. 
So good at good. 

490
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:25,880
Good call, Nick. 
I think those are those are all 

491
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:29,200
the quarterback notes I think we
had. 

492
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:31,280
Do you want to move on to RV or 
is there anyone? 

493
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:34,360
I, I guess the only question I'd
have then is there is there 

494
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:39,880
anybody else on the on the NFC 
side that that is worth 

495
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:45,520
mentioning? 
And I know Tink, so maybe Jordan

496
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:47,960
Love. 
Oh, I mean, the cat's all the 

497
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:49,400
way out of the bag on Jordan 
Love. 

498
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:52,920
He's he's Packers. 
Packers are too cheap. 

499
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:59,160
I mean, the really too, the NFC 
is so juicy right now because 

500
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:03,680
you have Detroit and Philly that
are both so strong, but you get 

501
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:07,200
Green Bay in Minnesota. 
They're they're both also mortal

502
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:10,160
locks for the playoffs, right? 
They're it's basically a certain

503
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:13,160
thing that they're getting in 
and their conference 

504
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:16,400
championship odds are both 
pretty strong as well. 

505
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,320
They're both, you know, right 
around 30%. 

506
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:24,640
Minnesota's closer to 25%. 
Green Bay's about 29%. 

507
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:28,560
But like, for their cost, it's 
quite good. 

508
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:32,240
Like they are very cheap in 
playoff basketball. 

509
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:35,800
So I mean, dude, there there are
drafts where Justin Jefferson 

510
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:38,840
will go in like the seventh 
round or something, which is 

511
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:42,400
absolutely wild because just 
last year Justin Jefferson would

512
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:45,520
go in the first or second round 
and the Vikings were an 

513
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,120
absolutely terrible playoff best
ball team. 

514
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:52,360
Like picking Vikings was 
atrocious last year and people 

515
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:55,760
were slamming Justin Jefferson. 
This year, Justin Jefferson goes

516
00:30:55,760 --> 00:31:00,280
so much later, I don't know who 
to blame about the whole field 

517
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:01,960
getting better at playoff best 
ball. 

518
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:05,440
Right. 
What? 

519
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:08,800
What content site is that? 
Yeah, is doing this. 

520
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:10,560
We're all trying to find the guy
who did this. 

521
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:15,800
And but yeah, let's let's move 
on from, from quarterback here 

522
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:23,080
and I will zoom out. 
I I I blame Zach for the for the

523
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:26,840
the non uniformity of the of the
page sizes. 

524
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:32,480
My apologies, I'll never change.
So this is our running back 

525
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:37,120
snaps and usage chart, which is 
we've got our starters here, 

526
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:42,200
which is like basically above 
40% of this of their team's 

527
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:45,400
offensive plays in the last four
games. 

528
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:52,120
Have them have them with above 
actually both 40% routes and 

529
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:54,800
rush attempts on their on their 
their team snaps. 

530
00:31:55,760 --> 00:32:00,440
And so I guess the, the one that
that is most interesting to me 

531
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:03,600
to talk about that most kind of 
subject to change here is that 

532
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:06,920
Chuba Hubbard. 
So I get, I guess he's up the 

533
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:10,440
top here. 
But then when I looked at and 

534
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:12,480
apologies, I don't have this 
right now. 

535
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:17,200
And but when I looked at the 
when I looked at the game log 

536
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:22,480
and for the Panthers, I think 
Jon and Brooks actually like had

537
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:26,680
almost as many touches as as as 
Tuba Hubbard did. 

538
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:29,480
Yeah, I believe he also had 
three targets. 

539
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,280
Wanna say he he out? 
Yeah, tuba as well. 

540
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:37,680
And yeah, Tuba had no targets 
and, and, and Brooks had had all

541
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,040
of them. 
Very, very limited work. 

542
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,400
You know, we're we're not 
dealing with a large sample for 

543
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:45,480
Jonathan Brooks yet, but the 
little bit that I got to see, he

544
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,680
looked good. 
Like sure looked as advertised. 

545
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:55,640
You know, now the problem is 
what you're, I mean like I'm 

546
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,920
holding onto a little hope as a 
guy who drafted a decent amount 

547
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:04,480
of Jonathan Brooks and I believe
I'm advancing a couple Jonathan 

548
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:07,280
Brooks teams. 
Now remember that I drafted over

549
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:10,920
2000 basketball teams. 
So like just by, you know, sheer

550
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:14,280
attrition, there's gonna be a 
Brooks team in there somewhere. 

551
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:19,400
I'm holding out a little hope 
that like in weeks 17 and 18 and

552
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:21,800
like to be crystal clear, I 
don't even think I'm getting 

553
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:25,440
anything usable in weeks 1415 or
16. 

554
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:30,440
I'm saying weeks 17 and 18, the 
Panthers are truly like hanging 

555
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:33,400
it up for the season. 
We're resting all the vets. 

556
00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,280
We're not trying to get anyone 
injured. 

557
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:37,680
We know what we've got here. 
Let's see what we've got in the 

558
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:42,120
young guys. 
Maybe then you get like a 60% 

559
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:45,920
Brooks snapshare or something, 
65% Brooks snapshare, and he 

560
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:49,040
gets a decent amount of work and
we just get there on some 

561
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:52,520
extreme efficiency because, you 
know, there's a pretty wide 

562
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,480
range of outcomes with the guy 
we barely seen play in the NFL 

563
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:57,120
snaps. 
So when I when I look at the 

564
00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:04,360
snaps here, so even even last 
week when when Brooks out 

565
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:08,960
touched them, Chubu was still 
ahead, but he's now down to just

566
00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:16,520
a 59% and snapshare. 
And so that's to me that's 

567
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:18,679
pretty telling. 
He he did run routes. 

568
00:34:18,679 --> 00:34:23,159
He had like 42% of of the team 
players he was running around. 

569
00:34:23,159 --> 00:34:27,960
Let me see what that is. 
Let me see how many actual 

570
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,520
routes. 
So he had 12 routes or 30 

571
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:34,320
routes. 
And then, and I'm wrong on the 

572
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:38,719
touches, he had 12 pass attempts
and then Brooks had 6 or so. 

573
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:43,159
He had 12 rush attempts. 
Brooks had 6 rush attempts and 

574
00:34:43,159 --> 00:34:46,280
then and the tree targets. 
So it was 9:00 to 12:00. 

575
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:53,360
And I guess what I'm kind of 
getting here is that the tuba 

576
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:55,239
workhorse season is kind of 
over. 

577
00:34:56,800 --> 00:35:01,720
Yeah, I agree with you there. 
And and man, what a run it was 

578
00:35:01,720 --> 00:35:03,040
though. 
Like if you drafted Chuba in 

579
00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:07,160
basketball, hats off to you. 
Like round of applause. 

580
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:12,040
I think there are we've, we've 
talked about like what we think 

581
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:14,840
was a process mistake or what 
was good process. 

582
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:18,160
On I think he's still, and I 
think he's still a helpful pick.

583
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:21,880
Oh my God, in the playoffs. 
Pick 00 in the playoffs. 

584
00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:27,800
So it I mean, if he's going to 
maintain a 60% snap share and 

585
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:31,200
like, I don't want to read too 
much into him not getting any 

586
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:35,280
targets only had 30 routes. 
Will Brooks only had six. 

587
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:40,960
Like obviously we should expect 
Brooks to continue to eat into 

588
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:44,840
that. 
But if he's still going to be 

589
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:49,200
like the lead back, that's still
like helpful you just like 

590
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:51,080
you're saying you need you need 
efficiency. 

591
00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:53,800
It's just it's different. 
It's it's so much different what

592
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:56,720
it was right. 
But I, I do, I want to touch on 

593
00:35:56,720 --> 00:36:01,480
this really briefly because like
I'll, I people do not want to 

594
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:04,720
hear that fading. 
I, I think Saquon Barkley, like 

595
00:36:04,720 --> 00:36:08,720
fading Saquon Barkley at his 
cost was not terrible process in

596
00:36:08,720 --> 00:36:12,960
in hindsight, I think the thing 
that I got wrong was I thought 

597
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,280
that the tail outcome happened 
at a lower frequency than it 

598
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:17,880
actually did. 
And we're, we're also living in 

599
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:20,840
one of the like, we're 
definitely living in like a 95th

600
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:23,200
percentile outcome. 
And, and if anyone tries to tell

601
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:26,000
me different, like if you 
thought that this guy was 

602
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,360
potentially setting the single 
season rushing record like 

603
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:33,400
greater than 5% of the time, you
should be rich beyond your 

604
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:36,720
wildest dreams with how much 
money you slammed in on props 

605
00:36:36,720 --> 00:36:39,600
this offseason, like on futures 
markets. 

606
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:43,200
But I I digress. 
The the Saquon 1, I, I think 

607
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:47,080
that one I, I'm going to sleep 
OK about the tuba one I think is

608
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:51,880
the one where it wasn't even a 
tail outcome for him to be this 

609
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:55,080
like advanced rate monster that 
trails off at the end of the 

610
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:58,480
season. 
But I, I think we were just so 

611
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:03,200
squarely focused on, oh, but you
lose the, the back end 

612
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,080
production and that's all that 
matters. 

613
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:07,440
And it is. 
It's the most important thing. 

614
00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:12,320
But we're just talking about how
like it's not going to go to 0 

615
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:17,320
like, for example, Chuba Hubbard
or Taje Spears down the stretch.

616
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:19,200
Oh yeah, Chuba. 
Great. 

617
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:22,400
Yeah. 
So it's like Chuba's not he 

618
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,240
didn't evaporate from your water
like. 

619
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:31,440
Still like it's like given the 
cost that you paid them, if you 

620
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:36,280
get like 12 points or 15 points 
in your flex from Chuba, like 

621
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:37,920
that's super helpful. 
Yep. 

622
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:44,760
So, so yeah, I think the flaw 
with Chuba was understanding how

623
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:47,640
the range was going to shift 
over the course of the season, 

624
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:53,000
but then being way too confident
in that specific outcome and and

625
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:59,240
not assigning enough value to, 
you know, just the floor saying,

626
00:37:59,240 --> 00:38:02,960
saying the floor was not zero 
with Chuba, even with Brooks, 

627
00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:04,680
you know, coming on and taking 
the work. 

628
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:09,840
So I think that's honestly, I 
think that's one of my biggest 

629
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:12,920
process flaws. 
I think the Chuba Hubbard range 

630
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:18,800
of outcomes was something that I
grossly messed up. 

631
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:23,000
So that's one where I want to 
want to remember that for next 

632
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:26,200
season, adjust the process a 
little bit there, have some fun 

633
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:30,080
offseason project ideas that I'm
going to work on to try and help

634
00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:34,160
myself out with getting getting 
a more realistic range of 

635
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:37,640
outcomes. 
It's kind of like a a way to 

636
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:40,680
frame my player evaluation in 
the offseason. 

637
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:46,920
But OK, I I do need to talk 
about another running back And, 

638
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:49,360
and actually, both these running
backs don't exist on this chart 

639
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:51,480
anymore. 
And they're the reason that 

640
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:54,120
Chuba is all the way up at the 
top by his lonesome. 

641
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:59,800
But CMC was up there with Chuba 
before he suffered a seasoning 

642
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:05,720
PCL injury and Jordan Mason also
suffered a season ending high 

643
00:39:05,720 --> 00:39:10,320
ankle sprain. 
It's putting him on IR Draco. 

644
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:15,400
I had a 555 best ball team with 
Christian McCaffrey that I was 

645
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:19,000
advancing. 
How was I advancing a Christian 

646
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:22,280
McCaffrey 555 team, you ask? 
It's 'cause the rest of the team

647
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:26,320
was really fucking good. 
I had Brock Bowers on it, I had 

648
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:29,360
Taysom Hill think I had Joe 
Burrow on it. 

649
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:33,160
I like Mike Evans. 
It was, it was absolutely 

650
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:36,120
cooking with gas. 
The team was incredible. 

651
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:40,600
And I was getting CMC back just 
in time for the playoffs. 

652
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:45,440
Might have been one of, you 
know, a a dozen CMC teams, maybe

653
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:48,520
even less than that in the 555 
'cause that's a pretty small 

654
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:51,440
tournament. 
And so I'm just sitting here so 

655
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:54,560
excited to get this team through
like one of the the teams I'm 

656
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:59,200
most excited for. 
And I also slammed the ever 

657
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:02,760
loving shit out of CMC. 
On that snow game, I think he 

658
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:05,320
was in 90% of my line UPS on 
Showdown that night. 

659
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:08,920
He's looking incredible. 
He's gashing them. 

660
00:40:09,200 --> 00:40:11,680
He looks unstoppable. 
He's vintage CMC. 

661
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:16,200
Not only does he look good, but 
my line UPS, I, I'm, I'm 

662
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:18,680
crushing Showdown, I'm like, I'm
all over it. 

663
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:21,600
I'm, I'm in the top 1% with a 
bunch of line UPS. 

664
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:26,000
I'm looking live to ship it. 
He breaks that long run and he 

665
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:29,680
is literally an ankle tackle 
away from a touchdown. 

666
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:32,960
And on that ankle tackle, he 
tears his PCL. 

667
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:40,160
And so all of a sudden, my 555 
basketball team up in smoke, my 

668
00:40:40,240 --> 00:40:44,280
incredible showdown sweat where 
I'm like poised to bink seems up

669
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:47,720
in smoke. 
But I take solace in the fact 

670
00:40:47,720 --> 00:40:52,120
that it's OK because I actually 
have a couple 555 teams with 

671
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:54,920
Jordan Mason that are are going 
to advance. 

672
00:40:55,240 --> 00:40:57,280
And now those look fantastic 
too. 

673
00:40:57,360 --> 00:41:01,600
It's like, you know what, you 
know, when God shuts a a door, 

674
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:04,400
he he opens a window. 
And, and I thought that was how 

675
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:05,920
it was going to be for Jordan 
Mason. 

676
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:09,320
And that window was just to 
smash your Dick in. 

677
00:41:09,720 --> 00:41:14,080
It slammed shut, absolutely 
slammed closed on my pecker. 

678
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:17,040
And, and you know what makes 
matters worse? 

679
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:20,480
Jordan Mason, who did leave the 
game with the high ankle sprain,

680
00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:28,280
scored 1.1 fantasy points 1 yard
to pit me out of first place on 

681
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:31,280
the showdown slate. 
I literally had the bink if 

682
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:35,840
Jordan Mason gets 1 less yard. 
So it was you you want to talk 

683
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:41,280
about like the opposite of sun 
running, like losing multiple 

684
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:43,760
high stakes basketball teams 
that looked like they were in 

685
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:48,960
incredible positions in rapid 
succession to losing a flagship 

686
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:54,200
showdown bank to the Jordan 
Mason and CMC scenario. 

687
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:56,840
I mean, I had to share that with
everyone. 

688
00:41:56,840 --> 00:41:58,360
I was bitching in the discord 
too. 

689
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:01,560
So if you're in there, sorry you
had to hear this twice, but but 

690
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:05,880
quite possibly like some of the 
worst run bat I've experienced 

691
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:10,480
in fantasy football, not just 
like the individual events, 

692
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:14,200
sure, they happen, but just for 
all of that to go back-to-back 

693
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:18,360
to back, like, Oh my God. 
All right, rant rant. 

694
00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:20,760
Over frustrated. 
You're you're that's frustrating

695
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:24,360
and you're, you're frustrated. 
I mean, I'm all, all you can do 

696
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:27,160
now is laugh at it. 
It honestly is just funny so. 

697
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:32,040
I I guess then is there anybody,
is there anybody on this chart 

698
00:42:32,720 --> 00:42:35,760
who you think is like 
particularly like underpriced or

699
00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:38,760
mispriced in, in playoff 
basketball? 

700
00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:41,560
Like I I get that they're, 
they're known commodities, but 

701
00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:44,320
yeah, take it away. 
Yeah, it's, it's Najee Harris, 

702
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:46,880
man. 
The the other. 

703
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:50,600
Here's the other medicine we got
to take Now, I'm going to be 

704
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:53,560
crystal clear on this one. 
The Jalen Warren process was 

705
00:42:53,560 --> 00:42:56,360
solid process. 
We did run pretty bad on the 

706
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:59,440
fact that he was injured to 
start the season and that really

707
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:02,600
let Naji maintain a firm 
stranglehold on the job because 

708
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:05,520
Warren was depleted through much
of the early season. 

709
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:08,640
He looks fine now, but they 
just, they love them. 

710
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:13,240
So Naji Harris and guys, I'm 
telling you it, it's, it's time 

711
00:43:13,240 --> 00:43:16,080
to just lean into their Naji 
love for playoff bestball. 

712
00:43:16,240 --> 00:43:18,560
I'm not saying you can't draft 
Jalen Warren in playoff 

713
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:19,960
bestball. 
I think they're both totally 

714
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:22,880
fine picks. 
I definitely prefer Naji to 

715
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:26,480
Warren cuz really what what 
you're actually looking for in 

716
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:30,680
playoff bestball sealing matters
so much less in the format. 

717
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:34,240
You're just looking for points. 
You're looking for points that 

718
00:43:34,240 --> 00:43:38,280
are happening in later rounds. 
And so if the Steelers can win 

719
00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:43,160
one playoff game and Naji can 
get 18 carries for 60 yards in a

720
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:46,520
touchdown like in the second 
round of the playoffs, that's 

721
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:49,160
fantastic for you. 
So Naji is way too cheap right 

722
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:51,440
now. 
Warren is is cheap. 

723
00:43:51,440 --> 00:43:53,320
He should definitely be cheaper 
than Naji. 

724
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:58,480
His contingent upside is pretty 
good, but you also have to 

725
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:00,440
remember that like they're 
probably going to use Cordero 

726
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:02,480
Patterson if something actually 
happens to Naji. 

727
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:04,680
But. 
I mean, they're they're pretty. 

728
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:08,080
And if you just take the last 
four games, they're they're not 

729
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:11,000
close, but they're not really 
close, but they're kind of 

730
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:14,480
close. 
Like Naji with 16 1/2 expected 

731
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:17,680
points a game and Jaylen Warren 
11 1/2. 

732
00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:27,640
Like, yeah, like Naji is better.
And but that's closer with with 

733
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:30,840
how dynamic NFL teams can be, 
That's closer to a conflict, 

734
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:32,160
right? 
And. 

735
00:44:34,520 --> 00:44:37,560
But Nazi's a great, great 
playoff basketball pick right 

736
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:38,000
now. 
Yeah. 

737
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:42,040
Just running back that's 
guaranteed to play in the first 

738
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:44,520
round and has an extremely safe 
floor. 

739
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:47,880
Like, that's a dream. 
That's an absolute dream. 

740
00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:52,160
Like he, he's just going to get 
so much work like, and, and it 

741
00:44:52,160 --> 00:44:55,400
can be ugly and it can be bad 
and, and it probably doesn't 

742
00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:56,920
matter, you know, a lot of the 
time. 

743
00:44:56,920 --> 00:45:01,160
Like the what? 
About like Josh Jacobs cat's. 

744
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:03,920
Out of the bag, Yeah, Cat's out 
of the bag on Jacobs. 

745
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:06,040
He. 
I mean, get it, get him while 

746
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:10,200
the getting's good. 
One of the I'll just blow my own

747
00:45:10,240 --> 00:45:13,120
shit up right now. 
One of the things that is my 

748
00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:19,000
favorite ways to play this right
now is when Josh Allen So I'm 

749
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:22,920
I'm playing the Bills and Chiefs
buy situation is particularly 

750
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:25,360
fluid. 
Some drafts I'm treating it is 

751
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:27,560
so the chiefs get the buy. 
Some drafts I'm treating it is 

752
00:45:27,560 --> 00:45:31,600
so the Bills get the buy because
of the the five quarterback 

753
00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:34,080
dynamic that we talked about at 
the top of the show where 

754
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:37,720
there's there are those big 5 
that represent the vast majority

755
00:45:37,720 --> 00:45:41,280
of Super Bowl outcomes. 
I want one of those five 

756
00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:45,320
quarterbacks since there are six
teams in the draft drafting from

757
00:45:45,320 --> 00:45:48,640
the 101 and not taking a 
quarterback with your first pick

758
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:52,640
is particularly dangerous 
because you're you're praying 

759
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:56,120
someone in the room must make a 
mistake for a quarterback to get

760
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:57,840
back to you, right? 
Like. 

761
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:00,640
From. 
If if people in the room were 

762
00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:03,240
playing optimally, you would 
never get a quarterback back if 

763
00:46:03,240 --> 00:46:04,680
you didn't take one at the one O
1. 

764
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:07,320
But occasionally that does 
happen. 

765
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:09,880
So you have two choices from the
One O 1. 

766
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:14,720
You can swing from the fences or
swing for the fences and take a 

767
00:46:14,720 --> 00:46:19,720
Lions player, take Almond Raw, 
take Jamir Gibbs and just say I 

768
00:46:19,720 --> 00:46:21,320
hope a quarterback gets back to 
me. 

769
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:24,040
That's viable because now I'm 
building a super team. 

770
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:26,280
I'm building something that's 
really hard to get right and it 

771
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:28,920
it shouldn't be available for 
long because people should 

772
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:32,920
figure out this five quarterback
meta, partly because I'm going 

773
00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:35,760
to talk about it on like every 
show that I do for the next few 

774
00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:40,360
weeks. 
But the alternative to swing for

775
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:44,240
the fences and risking that you 
end up having to do a Texans 

776
00:46:44,240 --> 00:46:49,000
team or you have to do a Vikings
or a Packers right with with 

777
00:46:49,000 --> 00:46:51,920
this Lions play that you've 
taken, which is not my favorite 

778
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:53,920
way to to build around a Lions 
player. 

779
00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:58,200
It's not you can't you know it 
it's OK you can do it sometimes.

780
00:46:58,200 --> 00:46:59,800
I just don't want to do it very 
often. 

781
00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:05,240
But the safer way is you take 
Josh Allen one O 1 because none 

782
00:47:05,240 --> 00:47:06,720
of the Bills pieces are 
expensive. 

783
00:47:06,720 --> 00:47:09,240
You typically get James Cook 
back. 

784
00:47:09,560 --> 00:47:11,720
James Cook will sometimes go a 
little earlier. 

785
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:15,240
The the quarterback and running 
back metas are a little dynamic.

786
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:19,080
They'll they'll shift where in 
some rooms the running backs 

787
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:21,160
will all go earlier and the 
quarterbacks will slide. 

788
00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:24,040
And that typically is a 
phenomenon of when someone takes

789
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:26,600
Josh Allen in the one O 1, the 
running backs will go hotter 

790
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:30,400
than not. 
And when someone takes non 

791
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:32,960
quarterback one O 1, the 
quarterbacks typically go hot. 

792
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:36,680
I think the field will figure 
out how they're supposed to play

793
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:37,960
it. 
Right now they're fucking that 

794
00:47:37,960 --> 00:47:42,400
up occasionally. 
But taking Josh Allen one O 1 is

795
00:47:42,400 --> 00:47:43,920
quite safe. 
You have one of those 

796
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:46,320
quarterbacks and then you can 
play it through. 

797
00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:47,880
Hopefully you get James Cook 
back. 

798
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:50,640
But if you don't get James Cook,
you know who's going to be 

799
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:53,520
available there. 
You can get Josh Jacobs, you can

800
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:57,600
get Aaron Jones, and you can get
all of the best weapons on both 

801
00:47:57,600 --> 00:48:00,880
the Packers and the Vikings. 
And between the two of those 

802
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:05,600
teams, that makes up damn near 
50% of the NFC conference 

803
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:08,200
championship games. 
Like you cover about half the 

804
00:48:08,200 --> 00:48:12,160
outcomes when you get those two 
teams in conjunction together. 

805
00:48:12,760 --> 00:48:16,520
And so being able to say, hey, 
I'm Bill's Super Bowl and then 

806
00:48:16,520 --> 00:48:22,240
it's one of these underdog NFC 
North teams makes it to the the 

807
00:48:22,240 --> 00:48:25,360
Super Bowl as well. 
That's a pretty fun way to 

808
00:48:25,360 --> 00:48:28,240
draft. 
It's also pretty easy to advance

809
00:48:28,240 --> 00:48:30,400
those teams. 
If you play it as Buffalo 

810
00:48:30,720 --> 00:48:33,800
doesn't get the buy, great. 
Now you can take Jordan Love or 

811
00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:37,360
Sam Darnold late, Super easy. 
Really, really good stacking 

812
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:41,280
options If you play it as 
Buffalo or that's that's if 

813
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:43,080
Buffalo does get the buy. 
If you play it as Buffalo 

814
00:48:43,080 --> 00:48:46,040
doesn't get the buy, then you're
just solo Josh Allen. 

815
00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:50,280
You jam, you jam way more Bills 
when you're playing Buffalo 

816
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:53,000
doesn't get the buy, you jam 
more Bills 'cause it's easier to

817
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:55,280
advance Buffalo. 
Therefore, when they make it to 

818
00:48:55,280 --> 00:48:58,600
the Super Bowl, you're much more
likely to run into rosters with 

819
00:48:58,600 --> 00:49:01,600
a lot of Bills players and you 
want to have those blockers in 

820
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:04,600
the Super Bowl. 
It it becomes a game where you 

821
00:49:04,600 --> 00:49:07,280
care about covering combinations
that your opponents can field. 

822
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:13,960
So Bills with buy is pretty 
skinny on bills like Josh Allen.

823
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:17,000
You could literally stop at Josh
Allen, James Cook and just the 

824
00:49:17,000 --> 00:49:18,920
all Packers Vikings for the rest
of your team. 

825
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:22,840
If it's Bills by. 
If it's not Bills by, you want 

826
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:26,280
to be closer to vertical bills 
where you're just drafting a lot

827
00:49:26,280 --> 00:49:34,440
of Bills players. 34567 Bills. 
And and and just a clarifying 

828
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:36,600
question. 
I'm going to guess that you're 

829
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:40,280
not just spinning a wheel and to
decide which one you do, it has 

830
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:42,200
more to do which which players 
make it back. 

831
00:49:42,840 --> 00:49:45,040
Yeah, it's it's which players 
make it back to me. 

832
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:48,480
The sidekick does have 
diversification built into it. 

833
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:53,800
So for decisions that are close,
we will break ties for you so 

834
00:49:53,800 --> 00:49:55,960
that you're not breaking the tie
the same way every time. 

835
00:49:56,280 --> 00:50:00,160
For decisions that aren't close,
we'll pick the one that is it 

836
00:50:00,200 --> 00:50:05,160
that we feel is the best pick. 
And so that's typically how I'll

837
00:50:05,160 --> 00:50:09,120
handle the building the Bills 
from the one hole we're gonna. 

838
00:50:09,680 --> 00:50:12,600
This is probably like too much 
playoff bestball talk here, so 

839
00:50:12,600 --> 00:50:14,040
we'll we'll wrap. 
Oh, is it? 

840
00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:18,200
I mean, I, I feel like I'm just 
rambling, but we'll, we're gonna

841
00:50:18,200 --> 00:50:21,240
have a show on the leg up 
YouTube channel later this week 

842
00:50:21,240 --> 00:50:23,960
where if you're into playoff 
bestball, 'cause I know some 

843
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:26,080
people are watching this show 
who probably are not. 

844
00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:28,720
But if you're into playoff 
bestball, we're gonna go through

845
00:50:28,720 --> 00:50:31,200
a lot more strategy stuff like 
that and some of the game theory

846
00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:34,200
and the current landscape and, 
and walk you through what you 

847
00:50:34,200 --> 00:50:38,320
need to be successful at the 
format, which I will say is the 

848
00:50:38,320 --> 00:50:42,840
format that I believe that an an
average fantasy player should 

849
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:46,040
have the largest engine. 
All, all you need to do is learn

850
00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:49,960
a little bit about the game and 
this should be theoretically 

851
00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:54,000
your most profitable format. 
Realizing that expected value, 

852
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:58,200
just like all fantasy, is quite 
difficult, but theoretically 

853
00:50:58,240 --> 00:51:00,440
this should be the format where 
you have the largest edge on the

854
00:51:00,440 --> 00:51:06,960
field. 
Makes makes sense and I'm 

855
00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:10,560
looking through this. 
I don't, I don't think, I guess,

856
00:51:11,880 --> 00:51:14,280
yeah, I don't think there's 
anything that we need to go in 

857
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:17,560
on detail and. 
Yeah. 

858
00:51:17,560 --> 00:51:20,360
What's the question? 
Would be Kareem Hunt seems kind 

859
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:23,960
of dead for playoff. 
He's I think he's still good for

860
00:51:23,960 --> 00:51:26,760
playoff best ball because you 
don't need, you don't need any 

861
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:30,400
points at playoff best ball. 
Like 4 points might be good If 

862
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:34,800
the if the Chiefs get the buy, 
Kareem Hunt becomes much better 

863
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:37,960
because it's harder to get 
Chiefs into the Super Bowl. 

864
00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:40,640
So in it's it's like any port in
the storm. 

865
00:51:40,720 --> 00:51:43,320
Any Chief will do. 
If if the Chiefs get the buy, 

866
00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:44,800
the Kareem Hunt's a great. 
Game. 

867
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:48,520
So are are you basically saying 
he's so cheap that like 4 points

868
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:51,040
is is fine? 
Yep, he's he's totally free. 

869
00:51:51,040 --> 00:51:53,400
And the other thing is 
sometimes, like with the way the

870
00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:57,320
running back meta goes, you just
might end up totally boxed out a

871
00:51:57,320 --> 00:52:00,280
running back early. 
And then you have really strong 

872
00:52:00,280 --> 00:52:04,320
pass catchers and you get some 
kind of middling running backs. 

873
00:52:04,320 --> 00:52:06,960
Like you do the Aaron Jones or 
you do the Joe Mixon or you do 

874
00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:08,840
whatever you need to advance the
team. 

875
00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:12,400
And then you're like, when I get
to the Super Bowl, it's Kareem 

876
00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:14,840
Hunt and he falls in the end 
zone and he gets me 8 total 

877
00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:17,480
points. 
And that's all I need because 

878
00:52:17,840 --> 00:52:21,000
it's just hard to have five 
active players in the Super 

879
00:52:21,000 --> 00:52:24,520
Bowl. 
The next chart does have a very 

880
00:52:24,520 --> 00:52:26,440
important playoff basketball 
player on it, though. 

881
00:52:26,680 --> 00:52:29,880
It actually has a couple. 
Obviously David Montgomery, one 

882
00:52:29,880 --> 00:52:33,400
of the best playoff basketball 
picks that there is his team. 

883
00:52:33,400 --> 00:52:36,840
Justice Hill. 
And Justice Hill is is the next 

884
00:52:36,840 --> 00:52:38,720
one. 
Yeah, unironically, Justice Hill

885
00:52:38,720 --> 00:52:40,560
is an incredible playoff 
basketball pick. 

886
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:45,840
Raven's not going to have a buy.
The nice thing about Justice 

887
00:52:45,840 --> 00:52:51,280
Hill is that in games where the 
Ravens are behind, you still can

888
00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:54,920
get some production out of him. 
I actually like taking him in 

889
00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:58,920
tandem with Derrick Henry. 
I think a lot of people are just

890
00:52:58,920 --> 00:53:01,840
not used to this format and so 
they would think, oh, if I take 

891
00:53:01,840 --> 00:53:03,320
Derrick Henry, I can't take 
Justice Hill. 

892
00:53:03,320 --> 00:53:05,720
I'm betting on Derrick Henry. 
It's like, no, no, no, dude, 

893
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:09,080
What you're actually wanting to 
happen here is if these guys 

894
00:53:09,080 --> 00:53:13,760
could ping pong weeks through 
playoff baseball where round one

895
00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:16,920
the Ravens stomp. 
They just absolutely stomp a mud

896
00:53:16,920 --> 00:53:19,000
hole through whoever they face 
in round one, right? 

897
00:53:19,240 --> 00:53:22,040
Round 2, it's a close game. 
It's back and forth. 

898
00:53:22,040 --> 00:53:23,520
They're trailing for a lot of 
the game. 

899
00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:26,680
Just as Hill is in there getting
a lot of passing work. 

900
00:53:26,960 --> 00:53:29,880
Henry is, you know, nowhere to 
be seen for the majority of the 

901
00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:31,960
game because they're just in 
trailing game script. 

902
00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:35,040
And look at Justice Hill's 
juicy, juicy yellow bar here. 

903
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:36,600
It's all routes all the time. 
Time baby. 

904
00:53:37,000 --> 00:53:40,200
And so Justice Hill, fantastic 
playoff basketball pick. 

905
00:53:40,600 --> 00:53:45,240
He is 1 where if I have any 
Ravens on my team and they are a

906
00:53:45,240 --> 00:53:49,000
team that I am drafting for the 
Super Bowl, like I'm not 

907
00:53:49,000 --> 00:53:53,400
drafting them as like a A1 off 
for advancing an AFC team. 

908
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:56,600
But if it's a team that I'm 
saying the Ravens could be 

909
00:53:56,600 --> 00:53:59,800
either my primary Super Bowl 
stack or they're a secondary 

910
00:53:59,800 --> 00:54:02,280
Super Bowl stack. 
They're they're complementing an

911
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:07,000
NFC quarterback. 
Justice Hill is queued up every 

912
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:09,960
single draft like that's AII 
don't care. 

913
00:54:09,960 --> 00:54:12,680
I'll take Justice Hill, like 
almost every draft if you give 

914
00:54:12,680 --> 00:54:17,120
it to me and I'm playing Ravens.
Makes sense, makes sense. 

915
00:54:17,640 --> 00:54:21,440
And I I I think we should move 
on from running back, hit the 

916
00:54:21,720 --> 00:54:24,920
the tight ends. 
Yeah, yeah, we can. 

917
00:54:24,920 --> 00:54:27,080
Just we can skip over these 
efficiency charts. 

918
00:54:27,760 --> 00:54:30,760
Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, 'cause I, I
feel like we've talked about a 

919
00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:34,400
lot of these guys already. 
Yeah, the only the only stuff I 

920
00:54:34,400 --> 00:54:38,240
had on there was just waxing 
poetic about how Chase Brown is 

921
00:54:38,240 --> 00:54:41,880
writing in like Gandalf to save 
my teams, and how if Chase Brown

922
00:54:41,880 --> 00:54:43,800
is Gandalf, then his. 
Oh yeah, yeah. 

923
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:46,280
I guess we, we just who, who are
you excited to have in the 

924
00:54:46,280 --> 00:54:47,880
playoffs? 
We're, we're, we're, we're 

925
00:54:47,880 --> 00:54:51,720
pumped to have Chase Brown and 
we're, we're pumped to have 

926
00:54:51,720 --> 00:54:54,680
Bucky Irving. 
And I'm kind of pumped up. 

927
00:54:54,720 --> 00:54:57,640
Rico Dowdell. 
Now I'm like, I'm I'm the hope 

928
00:54:57,640 --> 00:55:00,360
is rekindled. 
At least I'm not like I'm 

929
00:55:00,360 --> 00:55:04,520
reserving my my expectations are
low, but I'm like, oh baby, what

930
00:55:04,520 --> 00:55:06,960
if I got like a few more of 
those Rico Dowdle games? 

931
00:55:06,960 --> 00:55:10,160
That would sure hit the spot. 
Yeah, I am. 

932
00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:15,720
I I, I, I've got 1 remaining 
live fantasy pros and team with 

933
00:55:16,240 --> 00:55:22,960
with Kyle and and Daniel and 
we've got we've got Bijan. 

934
00:55:22,960 --> 00:55:26,000
We've got Rico Dowdle, Drake 
London, George Kittle, Brock 

935
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:31,160
Barris, Oh Collins, Zay Flowers 
and Jerry Judy. 

936
00:55:31,680 --> 00:55:33,880
Oh, that's a beast. 
That's a great team. 

937
00:55:34,360 --> 00:55:38,000
It's a really, really nice team.
I'm hoping we we we're in the 

938
00:55:38,000 --> 00:55:42,360
four seed so we were second in 
points that I scored and so we 

939
00:55:42,360 --> 00:55:45,560
didn't get that, we didn't get 
the two seed and so we need, we 

940
00:55:45,560 --> 00:55:50,520
need to win this week to get in.
But it's a pretty exciting team.

941
00:55:50,640 --> 00:55:54,080
Yeah, yeah, that's a fun one. 
I mean, any team with Brock 

942
00:55:54,080 --> 00:55:55,920
Bowers maybe. 
Speaking of Brock Bowers, let's 

943
00:55:55,920 --> 00:56:00,960
get to the tight end charts. 
Yeah, Brock Bowers and George 

944
00:56:00,960 --> 00:56:06,480
Kittle and Soaker craft as well.
My first note on this tight end 

945
00:56:06,480 --> 00:56:11,440
chart is there is but one tight 
end and his name is Brock Bowers

946
00:56:11,600 --> 00:56:15,400
because there's no what? 
Like if we're setting the bar as

947
00:56:15,400 --> 00:56:18,480
Brock, like Brock Bowers is what
defines a fantasy tight end. 

948
00:56:18,720 --> 00:56:20,800
None of the rest of these guys 
are fantasy tight ends. 

949
00:56:20,800 --> 00:56:22,840
They're just, I don't even know 
what they are like. 

950
00:56:22,840 --> 00:56:25,560
But they're not Brock fucking 
Bowers, OK? 

951
00:56:26,160 --> 00:56:29,360
Like this guy, put him in the 
Hall of Fame right now. 

952
00:56:29,680 --> 00:56:33,160
He's so good. 
He's I mean, he's not even the 

953
00:56:33,160 --> 00:56:35,320
best tight end. 
He's the best football player on

954
00:56:35,320 --> 00:56:38,920
the Raiders and, and I think 
pretty highly of Max Crosby, 

955
00:56:38,920 --> 00:56:41,600
like Brock Bauer's the best 
football player on the Raiders. 

956
00:56:41,880 --> 00:56:43,800
I think Max Crosby would tell 
you that too. 

957
00:56:43,840 --> 00:56:49,200
Like this guy is so good. 
And it's not just like that. 

958
00:56:49,200 --> 00:56:52,360
He's very physically talented. 
Raiders are giving him into 

959
00:56:52,360 --> 00:56:54,920
rounds, which I was very excited
to see. 

960
00:56:54,920 --> 00:56:57,760
I I really thought they would 
involve him even more in that 

961
00:56:57,760 --> 00:57:00,720
aspect of the game. 
But I'm glad to see that they're

962
00:57:00,720 --> 00:57:02,400
getting involved in that regard 
now. 

963
00:57:03,840 --> 00:57:08,160
But he's just so smart. 
He's like, I, I feel like this 

964
00:57:08,160 --> 00:57:13,760
guy could just teach APHD class 
on like how you were supposed to

965
00:57:13,760 --> 00:57:17,080
play the tight end position. 
He looks like a receiver on shit

966
00:57:17,080 --> 00:57:20,280
that he's doing too. 
Like he's, he's like 

967
00:57:20,280 --> 00:57:21,920
legitimately. 
Oh, he's a freak out. 

968
00:57:22,440 --> 00:57:25,920
He's he's turning defenders 
around in a way that you see 

969
00:57:25,920 --> 00:57:29,400
like the best wide receiver 
route runners turn guys around. 

970
00:57:29,400 --> 00:57:34,600
Like I I could talk about Brock 
Bowers for a long time, but I I 

971
00:57:34,600 --> 00:57:38,640
think you all get the gist that 
this guy is like, listen, if 

972
00:57:38,640 --> 00:57:42,960
Brock Bowers is not going as the
one O 1 in FFPC next year, 

973
00:57:44,960 --> 00:57:47,600
permission to have 100% Brock 
Bowers with you Draco. 

974
00:57:48,600 --> 00:57:54,600
Yeah, for sure. 
And so I, I, I just just for a 

975
00:57:54,600 --> 00:57:59,320
point of reference. 
And I, I've heard some, some 

976
00:57:59,320 --> 00:58:02,480
talk of like Jonnu Smith being 
the tight end one. 

977
00:58:03,640 --> 00:58:07,720
And if I, let's say I filter 
down to the last that I'm going 

978
00:58:07,720 --> 00:58:13,280
to say the last 10 games, the, 
the, the last. 

979
00:58:13,880 --> 00:58:18,280
And let's, let's let's sort by 
actually not the last 10 games 

980
00:58:18,280 --> 00:58:22,000
since week, since week 10. 
So we're getting a running week 

981
00:58:22,000 --> 00:58:25,920
10/11/12. 
OK, so I guess this hasn't 

982
00:58:25,920 --> 00:58:34,000
pulled in week 13 yet. 
And if you're looking at Brock 

983
00:58:34,000 --> 00:58:39,080
Barry's, his points per game is 
27.6 in those in that stretch 

984
00:58:39,760 --> 00:58:44,320
and John is at 23.4. 
If you want to do that from like

985
00:58:44,320 --> 00:58:51,880
the start of the season, he's at
2019.96 points a game and versus

986
00:58:51,880 --> 00:59:00,240
John who's at like 14.6, like 
maybe, maybe, maybe this doesn't

987
00:59:00,440 --> 00:59:02,800
like the, the reason I'm, I'm 
kind of calling this out is 

988
00:59:02,800 --> 00:59:06,800
like, if I compare that to Trey 
McBride, that's 17.6 points a 

989
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:10,080
game. 
Like talk about winning at the 

990
00:59:10,080 --> 00:59:13,320
tight end position. 
Like you were just like clubbing

991
00:59:13,680 --> 00:59:15,560
opponents over the head with 
this guy. 

992
00:59:16,280 --> 00:59:19,960
Like people are excited about 
Zack Eert's his 12 points a 

993
00:59:19,960 --> 00:59:24,360
game, 12 points from a a decent 
hit to 20. 

994
00:59:24,680 --> 00:59:29,320
Like that's eight points per 
game you're winning and that 

995
00:59:29,320 --> 00:59:30,680
that's that. 
I guess that's enough about 

996
00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:34,080
Brock Bauer's. 
Yeah, I feel like you wrote a 

997
00:59:34,080 --> 00:59:38,040
very good article about how 
drafting double elite tight end 

998
00:59:38,040 --> 00:59:41,320
on FFPC was not. 
That was just insane. 

999
00:59:42,160 --> 00:59:45,360
And man, this year, if you 
drafted Trey McBride and Brock 

1000
00:59:45,360 --> 00:59:48,440
Bauer, what, what do you think 
the advance rate is for Trey 

1001
00:59:48,440 --> 00:59:50,960
McBride, Brock Bauer's teams on 
FFPC? 

1002
00:59:51,360 --> 00:59:55,800
It's got to be like, you have to
be like almost 50% or something.

1003
00:59:56,160 --> 01:00:00,200
So it it'll be good. 
The problem the problem is just 

1004
01:00:00,200 --> 01:00:02,640
like how like else the season 
is. 

1005
01:00:03,240 --> 01:00:06,400
Yeah, if if you were the kind of
person who would draft Trey 

1006
01:00:06,400 --> 01:00:09,800
McBride and Brock Bowers, I bet 
you didn't click Saquon. 

1007
01:00:09,920 --> 01:00:12,400
I bet you didn't click Derrick 
Henry very much. 

1008
01:00:12,400 --> 01:00:14,120
No, that's the, that's that's 
the. 

1009
01:00:14,200 --> 01:00:18,720
That's kind of the problem. 
But man, I yeah, it it does feel

1010
01:00:18,720 --> 01:00:22,320
a little unfair that I just wax 
poetic about Brock Bowers for, 

1011
01:00:22,320 --> 01:00:25,440
you know, 10 minutes and we 
didn't give Trey McBride a shout

1012
01:00:25,440 --> 01:00:28,880
out who's also fucking crushing.
Same aid on as Brock Bowers, 

1013
01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:31,560
basically same targets for route
run over the last four weeks. 

1014
01:00:32,040 --> 01:00:36,280
This guy is also a freak. 
The the problem for poor Trey 

1015
01:00:36,280 --> 01:00:39,640
McBride is he just can't score 
touchdowns because quarterback 

1016
01:00:39,640 --> 01:00:42,080
can't see him. 
Like Kyler is too short. 

1017
01:00:42,720 --> 01:00:45,240
It's so frustrating. 
He needs to get taller. 

1018
01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:49,720
The the other kind of scary 
thing for me, I mean, you wanna 

1019
01:00:49,720 --> 01:00:52,640
you wanna talk about like I'm 
thinking like next year for 

1020
01:00:52,640 --> 01:00:56,920
tight ends, like Trey McBride's 
situation isn't changing. 

1021
01:00:57,000 --> 01:00:58,920
You know, like he's he's there 
with Kyler. 

1022
01:00:58,920 --> 01:01:01,240
Like Kyler's the quarterback. 
Trey McBride's not going 

1023
01:01:01,240 --> 01:01:04,520
anywhere. 
So like don't expect, I mean, 

1024
01:01:04,640 --> 01:01:07,000
obviously he's running cold on 
touchdowns. 

1025
01:01:07,000 --> 01:01:10,800
So like, you can expect some 
positive regression there, but I

1026
01:01:10,800 --> 01:01:13,880
don't think, like, I do think 
part of it is systemic that 

1027
01:01:13,880 --> 01:01:16,880
like, hey, it's just going to be
harder for Trey McBride to score

1028
01:01:16,880 --> 01:01:20,000
touchdowns just because of who 
his quarterback is and how they 

1029
01:01:20,000 --> 01:01:24,200
come like not 0 touchdowns over 
the course of a season hard, but

1030
01:01:24,200 --> 01:01:27,000
like, you know, just a little 
harder. 

1031
01:01:27,280 --> 01:01:31,680
And then he is, he is in terms 
of points, he is 21 points 

1032
01:01:31,760 --> 01:01:35,200
underexpected on on receiving 
touchdowns. 

1033
01:01:35,720 --> 01:01:41,160
Yeah, so a little over three 
like 3 1/2 ish touchdowns under 

1034
01:01:41,160 --> 01:01:45,560
expected, so. 
Given his reception count, 

1035
01:01:45,560 --> 01:01:49,920
that's a low expectation, right?
So that's just to put a number 

1036
01:01:49,920 --> 01:01:52,520
on kind of what you're 
explaining, which is that like, 

1037
01:01:52,520 --> 01:01:56,520
hey, he's running cold, but the 
expected amount is also low. 

1038
01:01:56,800 --> 01:01:59,080
Right, Yeah, thank you. 
That's I think that's really 

1039
01:01:59,160 --> 01:02:03,680
helpful context there. 
And then to you know, for all 

1040
01:02:03,680 --> 01:02:06,360
the concern about Trey McBride, 
given his situation, which like 

1041
01:02:06,600 --> 01:02:09,600
how concerned can we really be 
this these guys are crushing at 

1042
01:02:09,600 --> 01:02:13,600
the tight end position. 
But it's like to the thing that 

1043
01:02:13,600 --> 01:02:16,320
I'm thinking through is like 
what makes Trey McBride or Brock

1044
01:02:16,320 --> 01:02:19,760
Bowers not just like the one O 1
in FFPC? 

1045
01:02:19,760 --> 01:02:23,760
But like, listen, there were 
times when Travis Kelsey could 

1046
01:02:23,760 --> 01:02:27,360
have been the legitimate one O 
one overall and half PPR just 

1047
01:02:27,360 --> 01:02:31,040
because of the gap from him to 
the next player of the position.

1048
01:02:32,000 --> 01:02:36,200
Brock Bowers and Trey McBride 
are the the archetype of player 

1049
01:02:36,440 --> 01:02:39,440
that could be the literal one O 
1. 

1050
01:02:39,440 --> 01:02:42,960
I know it sounds wild to say. 
I don't think either of them 

1051
01:02:42,960 --> 01:02:47,040
will get to be the one O 1 in in
half. 

1052
01:02:47,040 --> 01:02:51,480
PPR is my framing here. 
Because the other exists. 

1053
01:02:51,480 --> 01:02:55,600
So the gap from the Titan one to
the Titan 2 will just not be as 

1054
01:02:55,600 --> 01:02:59,080
large as it was when Kelsey was 
in his heyday and there was just

1055
01:02:59,320 --> 01:03:01,640
a bunch of other bums that 
weren't doing anything. 

1056
01:03:03,400 --> 01:03:07,920
But like if if Brock Bowers had 
a good quarterback and he was 

1057
01:03:07,920 --> 01:03:10,680
scoring. 
Imagine we got Brock Bowers with

1058
01:03:10,680 --> 01:03:13,320
Sam Laporte's 10 touchdowns from
last season. 

1059
01:03:13,600 --> 01:03:16,760
Like Ruck Bowers isn't just like
the tight end one. 

1060
01:03:16,760 --> 01:03:21,000
He's he's the overall best 
fantasy player. 

1061
01:03:21,040 --> 01:03:23,760
You know, like he's like the 
wide receiver too or something. 

1062
01:03:23,800 --> 01:03:27,760
You know, like guy's insane. 
Yeah, if if, if if he was 

1063
01:03:27,760 --> 01:03:31,160
playing with Joe Burrow or 
something like that, Like it 

1064
01:03:31,160 --> 01:03:34,080
would just be the young question
one O 1 like dude. 

1065
01:03:35,280 --> 01:03:38,280
My God, yeah. 
So I just made-up a scenario 

1066
01:03:38,280 --> 01:03:42,000
that will never happen but. 
Yeah, I'm gonna go to sleep 

1067
01:03:42,000 --> 01:03:44,520
thinking about that. 
Just what if? 

1068
01:03:44,600 --> 01:03:48,880
What if the Raiders didn't draft
Brock Bowers and he got to go to

1069
01:03:48,880 --> 01:03:51,000
the Bengals? 
I mean, because they clearly 

1070
01:03:51,000 --> 01:03:53,240
wanted to use a tight end in the
passing game too. 

1071
01:03:53,240 --> 01:03:55,200
Like they're, they're trying so 
hard to make it work. 

1072
01:03:55,800 --> 01:03:59,280
Oh, man, OK, we spend enough 
time talking about all these 

1073
01:03:59,280 --> 01:04:02,160
tight ends and I think we kind 
of answered the question of the 

1074
01:04:02,160 --> 01:04:04,120
three tight ends you're most 
excited to see on your 

1075
01:04:04,120 --> 01:04:07,360
basketball teams, I mean, it's 
Trey McBride, Brock Bowers and 

1076
01:04:07,360 --> 01:04:09,360
Jonnu Smith. 
I I mean, at least for me. 

1077
01:04:09,360 --> 01:04:12,200
Is there anyone else you want to
throw in as a an honorable? 

1078
01:04:12,200 --> 01:04:14,720
Yeah, George Kittle, you're 
happy about True. 

1079
01:04:14,840 --> 01:04:19,440
Yeah, a little concerning with 
the Brock Purdy shoulder injury 

1080
01:04:19,440 --> 01:04:22,840
and like how much the Niners, 
the Niners are like closing up 

1081
01:04:22,840 --> 01:04:26,480
shop, right? 
Like CMC insta IR, high ankle 

1082
01:04:26,480 --> 01:04:29,160
sprained for Jordan Mason insta 
IR, right? 

1083
01:04:29,640 --> 01:04:32,000
They put a defensive. 
I don't think it's in their DNA 

1084
01:04:32,040 --> 01:04:35,000
to like, stop playing hard. 
I mean, they they put a 

1085
01:04:35,000 --> 01:04:37,560
defensive tackle on IR right 
away after the game too. 

1086
01:04:37,600 --> 01:04:40,640
I'm just saying like you get a 
George Kittle like rib. 

1087
01:04:40,760 --> 01:04:44,040
The stuff that George Kittle 
would normally play through is 

1088
01:04:44,040 --> 01:04:47,040
the kind of stuff now that the 
George Kittle still might want 

1089
01:04:47,040 --> 01:04:49,600
to play. 
The 49ers will absolutely start 

1090
01:04:49,600 --> 01:04:52,800
shutting guys down is my read 
based on what they did after 

1091
01:04:53,080 --> 01:04:56,200
after the Buffalo loss. 
Like three guys immediately 

1092
01:04:56,200 --> 01:04:59,960
going to IR and like yes, the 
CMC 1 is probably like IR 

1093
01:04:59,960 --> 01:05:03,280
worthy, but. 
High ankle sprain for Jordan 

1094
01:05:03,280 --> 01:05:07,840
Mason. 
Those are those are here. 

1095
01:05:08,200 --> 01:05:10,080
What's that? 
I said I'm just reading the tea 

1096
01:05:10,080 --> 01:05:12,360
leaves here. 
It see, they seem like they're 

1097
01:05:12,720 --> 01:05:14,520
they're picking up the pieces to
the board game. 

1098
01:05:14,520 --> 01:05:16,120
They're putting things back in 
the box. 

1099
01:05:16,440 --> 01:05:18,520
They're just they're getting 
ready to play next season. 

1100
01:05:22,120 --> 01:05:25,720
I I, I, I I agree with what 
you're saying, but I, I, I do 

1101
01:05:25,760 --> 01:05:31,800
think like, it's not like, hey, 
he like he, he has a Grade 1 

1102
01:05:31,800 --> 01:05:35,120
hamstring strain straight to AIR
buddy. 

1103
01:05:35,880 --> 01:05:39,840
And it'd be more like if he had 
a great two hamstring string, 

1104
01:05:39,840 --> 01:05:42,440
like he could maybe get back for
week 17. 

1105
01:05:43,640 --> 01:05:47,360
Like those are probably the 
things where is like the type of

1106
01:05:47,360 --> 01:05:50,520
injuries where he might already 
be out for the fantasy playoffs 

1107
01:05:50,680 --> 01:05:51,880
anyway. 
Right. 

1108
01:05:51,880 --> 01:05:53,760
Yeah. 
And I to be clear, I am with 

1109
01:05:53,760 --> 01:05:55,640
you. 
If I open up a team and it's got

1110
01:05:55,640 --> 01:05:58,760
George Kittle on it, I'm excited
to have him going into the 

1111
01:05:58,760 --> 01:06:01,120
fantasy playoffs. 
But I'm just, I'm a little 

1112
01:06:01,120 --> 01:06:04,680
concerned that it's gonna get to
Week 16 and I'm gonna watch the 

1113
01:06:04,680 --> 01:06:06,960
bottom drop out of my George 
Kittle teams. 

1114
01:06:07,000 --> 01:06:09,080
But right. 
I just think that risk is 

1115
01:06:09,280 --> 01:06:11,520
slightly higher for him than 
some other guys, you know? 

1116
01:06:12,160 --> 01:06:16,680
So then I guess that then the 
other thing to talk about or to 

1117
01:06:16,680 --> 01:06:24,600
think about is of these tight 
ends here, who am who is it who,

1118
01:06:24,720 --> 01:06:28,520
who, who should be like highly 
drafted for playoff basketball 

1119
01:06:28,920 --> 01:06:34,480
like is is LaPorte is like he's 
somebody who should probably go 

1120
01:06:34,480 --> 01:06:39,560
towards the end, right? 
No, no, the Lions are so #1 when

1121
01:06:39,560 --> 01:06:43,080
you think through the players on
the Lions that could project, 

1122
01:06:43,480 --> 01:06:44,400
think about your. 
Right. 

1123
01:06:44,400 --> 01:06:47,720
He's like, he's like the fifth 
line, right, Which is prob, 

1124
01:06:47,720 --> 01:06:49,680
maybe, maybe that's round 3 or 
4. 

1125
01:06:50,200 --> 01:06:53,120
Yeah, Yep, which is right. 
It's right about where he goes 

1126
01:06:53,120 --> 01:06:57,240
like the 3-4 turn and and yes, 
like just think through it as 

1127
01:06:57,240 --> 01:07:00,880
I'm doing projections for the 
Super Bowl, which players am I 

1128
01:07:00,880 --> 01:07:03,480
projecting? 
And it's like LaPorte is kind of

1129
01:07:03,480 --> 01:07:05,680
the last stop before you get 
into the really gross guys. 

1130
01:07:05,680 --> 01:07:08,240
You're getting down to like Tim 
Patrick, you know, or like 

1131
01:07:08,560 --> 01:07:12,400
you're, you're hoping that 
Khalif Raymond is back from IR, 

1132
01:07:12,400 --> 01:07:14,520
right. 
Like you're, you're like Brock 

1133
01:07:14,520 --> 01:07:16,640
Wright. 
I I could project Brock Wright 

1134
01:07:16,640 --> 01:07:21,480
for like 10 routes and .5 
reception, you know, like you're

1135
01:07:21,480 --> 01:07:23,120
getting down into the true 
showdown. 

1136
01:07:23,440 --> 01:07:28,080
So Laporta is like the last non 
showdown to your play for the 

1137
01:07:28,080 --> 01:07:30,560
Lions. 
So he's immensely valuable just 

1138
01:07:30,560 --> 01:07:33,320
because of how high their play 
out their Super Bowl probability

1139
01:07:33,320 --> 01:07:36,240
is. 
Other other guys like Hawkinson 

1140
01:07:36,240 --> 01:07:38,080
way too cheap. 
Just kind of in the theme with 

1141
01:07:38,080 --> 01:07:41,240
the Vikings. 
You have to remember that tight 

1142
01:07:41,240 --> 01:07:44,320
end does not get its own special
designation though and play 

1143
01:07:44,400 --> 01:07:46,680
baseball. 
It's it's WT, it's wide receiver

1144
01:07:46,680 --> 01:07:50,120
slash tight end. 
So you really need these guys to

1145
01:07:50,520 --> 01:07:53,320
be scoring kind of in line with 
some of the wide receivers you'd

1146
01:07:53,320 --> 01:07:57,760
be taking them around. 
So a lot of the value for tight 

1147
01:07:57,760 --> 01:08:00,200
end is driven by their team 
specifically. 

1148
01:08:01,000 --> 01:08:06,560
Man, you want, you want the Babe
Ruth call my shot, though, if 

1149
01:08:06,560 --> 01:08:09,680
the Ravens make a run, Mark 
Andrews is the guy you need. 

1150
01:08:10,360 --> 01:08:13,440
I mean, we've been seeing it 
over these past few weeks that 

1151
01:08:14,240 --> 01:08:17,520
more and more it kind of feels 
like when the rubber is hitting 

1152
01:08:17,520 --> 01:08:21,040
the road, they're like, all 
right, dude, we got to, we just 

1153
01:08:21,040 --> 01:08:24,120
got to lean on you a little bit 
and like you can see it. 

1154
01:08:24,120 --> 01:08:26,880
His targets for route run is 23%
now. 

1155
01:08:26,880 --> 01:08:30,520
His his percent of team drop 
backs is still lower than it has

1156
01:08:30,520 --> 01:08:32,680
been historically. 
Like they're still using Isaiah 

1157
01:08:32,680 --> 01:08:34,479
Likely. 
I'm just. 

1158
01:08:34,560 --> 01:08:38,560
Right, ever since he had that 
94% game, he's averaged 61%. 

1159
01:08:38,960 --> 01:08:43,000
Yeah, but but I'm just telling 
you, like, I would not be the 

1160
01:08:43,000 --> 01:08:46,760
least bit surprised if we see 
Mark Andrews do a similar thing 

1161
01:08:46,760 --> 01:08:49,560
to what we saw Travis Kelsey do 
last year in the playoffs where 

1162
01:08:49,560 --> 01:08:51,680
it's like leading into the 
playoffs. 

1163
01:08:51,880 --> 01:08:54,359
Do you remember how down people 
were on Travis Kelsey? 

1164
01:08:54,359 --> 01:08:58,680
Like people were taking, I mean,
that was, this was before Roshi 

1165
01:08:58,680 --> 01:09:01,560
Rice is like fully breaking out,
but people were taking Roshi 

1166
01:09:01,560 --> 01:09:04,800
Rice over Travis Kelsey. 
People were taking, you know. 

1167
01:09:04,880 --> 01:09:07,640
Oh, you remember R.E.M.? 
You remember we caught the guy. 

1168
01:09:08,279 --> 01:09:11,760
It's because we got to play 
Travis Kelsey as like a 

1169
01:09:11,760 --> 01:09:13,080
contrarian play. 
Yeah. 

1170
01:09:13,359 --> 01:09:17,120
Yeah. 
Instead of Rashi Rice and then 

1171
01:09:17,200 --> 01:09:19,439
and then and Travis Kelsey went 
on his terror and. 

1172
01:09:19,439 --> 01:09:22,240
And the guy cheated. 
But yeah, like it. 

1173
01:09:22,240 --> 01:09:25,200
It was legitimately scary for us
to play Travis Kelsey. 

1174
01:09:25,200 --> 01:09:27,359
We were like, this guy might be 
done. 

1175
01:09:27,680 --> 01:09:31,399
Yeah, Rashi Rice is. 
A major contrarian play, but 

1176
01:09:31,399 --> 01:09:34,800
like in your in your mind's eye,
do you not see Mark Andrews just

1177
01:09:34,960 --> 01:09:38,279
I mean, when I saw him 
absolutely Moss a defender for a

1178
01:09:38,279 --> 01:09:41,200
touchdown this last week and it 
was in the middle of three dudes

1179
01:09:41,200 --> 01:09:44,240
and Lamar was like, yeah, I'm 
throwing it up to my boy. 

1180
01:09:44,359 --> 01:09:49,040
Like that is vibe little vibes 
based analysis here. 

1181
01:09:49,040 --> 01:09:51,520
That was all I needed to see to 
be like, Oh yeah, like they're, 

1182
01:09:51,800 --> 01:09:54,880
they're getting the band back 
together for the play when when 

1183
01:09:54,880 --> 01:09:58,640
the chips are down, like I'm not
going to be surprised. 

1184
01:09:58,680 --> 01:10:01,240
So. 
I I mean you still have to be 

1185
01:10:01,240 --> 01:10:04,640
somewhat concerned about the the
the route percentage. 

1186
01:10:05,000 --> 01:10:06,560
That so here's the beautiful 
thing. 

1187
01:10:06,840 --> 01:10:09,040
It's playoff baseball. 
So I don't even need that many 

1188
01:10:09,040 --> 01:10:12,040
points, right? 
Like a, a touchdown is pretty 

1189
01:10:12,040 --> 01:10:14,040
good in playoff baseball. 
And again, the farther that 

1190
01:10:14,040 --> 01:10:17,760
you're going, the lower the 
point requirement threshold is 

1191
01:10:17,760 --> 01:10:21,840
to have a play be good. 
And so I that's that's the 

1192
01:10:21,840 --> 01:10:23,680
beautiful thing. 
Like I don't need Mark Andrews 

1193
01:10:23,680 --> 01:10:27,800
to go out there and drop 30 
burgers on people like a simple 

1194
01:10:27,800 --> 01:10:32,840
15 spot will do just fine. 
But but to be crystal clear on 

1195
01:10:32,840 --> 01:10:37,040
my, my opinion on what I think 
is is possible to happen. 

1196
01:10:37,600 --> 01:10:40,720
I wouldn't be surprised if if we
get a Mark Andrews 30 burger 

1197
01:10:40,720 --> 01:10:43,280
during the playoffs. 
I don't think that's the most 

1198
01:10:43,280 --> 01:10:47,840
likely outcome, but I think it's
way more in the I, I would say 

1199
01:10:47,840 --> 01:10:51,880
if I'm doing projections in the 
playoffs, I've got Mark Andrews 

1200
01:10:51,880 --> 01:10:54,920
range. 
I got his right tail a little 

1201
01:10:54,920 --> 01:10:58,640
longer and a little fatter than 
I do, You know, next week. 

1202
01:10:58,960 --> 01:11:02,960
Well, certainly they're on by. 
But you know, week 14, I got 

1203
01:11:02,960 --> 01:11:06,320
Mark Andrews, you know, a lot 
closer to what he's done so far 

1204
01:11:06,320 --> 01:11:09,200
this season in the playoffs. 
I think they're taking the 

1205
01:11:09,200 --> 01:11:10,440
governor off. 
They might. 

1206
01:11:10,520 --> 01:11:13,040
They might take the old Andrews 
Mobile out for a spin. 

1207
01:11:14,480 --> 01:11:17,520
Yeah, yeah, makes makes sense 
for sure. 

1208
01:11:19,200 --> 01:11:23,160
Like I know that Gretch is kind 
of like honed in on stuff where 

1209
01:11:25,120 --> 01:11:29,080
the new offense maybe that's 
like emphasizing somebody like 

1210
01:11:29,080 --> 01:11:37,040
Merck Andrews less and but you 
watch him play, it doesn't it 

1211
01:11:37,040 --> 01:11:41,120
doesn't feel like we're watching
Dusty Marc Andrews. 

1212
01:11:41,120 --> 01:11:45,120
I feel it feels like watching 
normal and Marc Andrews. 

1213
01:11:45,120 --> 01:11:49,440
So, so you do see that like 
possibility that they're just 

1214
01:11:49,440 --> 01:11:53,320
like, Oh yeah, we're just gonna 
play you like, you have to come 

1215
01:11:53,320 --> 01:11:55,640
up with some kind of reason that
they're not doing it right now. 

1216
01:11:57,000 --> 01:12:02,240
Like he's not that old and but. 
He's he's older and he is a type

1217
01:12:02,240 --> 01:12:04,000
1 diabetic. 
Load maybe? 

1218
01:12:04,000 --> 01:12:05,480
They are just saving him for the
playoffs. 

1219
01:12:05,520 --> 01:12:07,400
Yeah, load. 
Load management makes sense to 

1220
01:12:07,400 --> 01:12:09,400
me. 
We should get to the back of 

1221
01:12:09,400 --> 01:12:11,520
tight ends because there is one 
we have to talk about before we.

1222
01:12:11,520 --> 01:12:13,400
Move. 
Oh, there is, there is. 

1223
01:12:13,960 --> 01:12:16,360
And he is a fantastic playoff 
basketball pick. 

1224
01:12:16,360 --> 01:12:18,720
Actually, there's two here that 
are great playoff basketball 

1225
01:12:18,720 --> 01:12:21,600
picks. 
One is Isaiah Likely. 

1226
01:12:22,240 --> 01:12:26,080
Just because we like Mark 
Andrews doesn't mean that we 

1227
01:12:26,080 --> 01:12:29,680
have to dislike Isaiah Likely. 
OK, like both, both guys can be 

1228
01:12:29,680 --> 01:12:31,760
good picks. 
They don't even have to both get

1229
01:12:31,760 --> 01:12:34,000
there to be good picks. 
You know, we're we're process 

1230
01:12:34,000 --> 01:12:36,520
over results here. 
Isaiah Likely's a great pick. 

1231
01:12:36,520 --> 01:12:40,760
He goes very late off sometimes.
He goes undrafted every once in 

1232
01:12:40,760 --> 01:12:43,480
a while. 
You get just an absolute stone 

1233
01:12:44,360 --> 01:12:47,400
dead mouth breather in the room 
who like takes the first 3 

1234
01:12:47,400 --> 01:12:50,480
Ravens and somehow doesn't think
through the fact that like, 

1235
01:12:50,480 --> 01:12:53,880
buddy, if the Ravens make the 
Super Bowl, everyone with your 

1236
01:12:53,880 --> 01:12:57,680
team is advancing. 
Like you have your Zay Flowers, 

1237
01:12:57,680 --> 01:13:01,200
Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson and
you want to show up to the Super

1238
01:13:01,200 --> 01:13:04,240
Bowl with those as your only 
Ravens players and you're going 

1239
01:13:04,240 --> 01:13:06,160
to battle with that. 
And then you got a bunch of one 

1240
01:13:06,160 --> 01:13:08,600
offs that aren't doing shit in 
the playoffs or in the Super 

1241
01:13:08,600 --> 01:13:11,680
Bowl. 
Like I am jamming vertical. 

1242
01:13:11,680 --> 01:13:14,560
If you're saying the Ravens are 
your Super Bowl team, you better

1243
01:13:14,560 --> 01:13:17,680
show up with six. 
Like don't don't let me catch 

1244
01:13:17,680 --> 01:13:20,280
you in the Super Bowl with under
6 Ravens like or I'm going to 

1245
01:13:20,960 --> 01:13:24,440
I'm going to dust you like you. 
You will get to sit in the cuck 

1246
01:13:24,440 --> 01:13:28,440
chair and watch me win first 
place If you show up with less 

1247
01:13:28,440 --> 01:13:31,000
than 6 Ravens in the Super Bowl 
and they are in the Super Bowl. 

1248
01:13:31,000 --> 01:13:33,960
That's all I'm saying. 
So Isaiah likely great pick just

1249
01:13:33,960 --> 01:13:37,960
because he is, he counts as one 
Raven and he is one on your way 

1250
01:13:37,960 --> 01:13:40,440
to six or more Ravens if you're 
playing Ravens to the Super 

1251
01:13:40,440 --> 01:13:42,080
Bowl. 
The other one that's really 

1252
01:13:42,080 --> 01:13:46,160
important is Noah Gray. 
We we can't ignore that Noah 

1253
01:13:46,160 --> 01:13:49,600
Gray has seen a production spike
lately. 

1254
01:13:49,960 --> 01:13:54,680
And again, the deeper you go 
into playoff basketball, the 

1255
01:13:54,680 --> 01:13:56,520
less and less it becomes like 
best. 

1256
01:13:56,520 --> 01:13:59,320
Well, the more and more it 
becomes like NFL Showdown. 

1257
01:13:59,640 --> 01:14:02,640
And so would you play Noah Gray 
on NFL showdown? 

1258
01:14:03,080 --> 01:14:05,160
Guess what? 
The field played Noah Gray at 

1259
01:14:05,160 --> 01:14:08,520
like 40% on the NFL showdown. 
The last Chiefs slate. 

1260
01:14:08,720 --> 01:14:12,360
They jammed the fuck out of this
guy because at the cost that he 

1261
01:14:12,360 --> 01:14:15,960
was, he was a decent play. 
Probably not like 40% decent, 

1262
01:14:15,960 --> 01:14:18,320
but people got a little over 
their skis there. 

1263
01:14:19,040 --> 01:14:22,400
But in playoff baseball, you'd 
get Noah Gray for free last 

1264
01:14:22,400 --> 01:14:23,800
round. 
And again if. 

1265
01:14:23,800 --> 01:14:27,760
You're right, you're looking at 
5 targets a game, 50 or yards. 

1266
01:14:28,080 --> 01:14:31,400
Yeah, if you're playing the 
Chiefs in the Super Bowl, this 

1267
01:14:31,400 --> 01:14:34,760
is kind of like the Buffalo 
dynamic where I said, hey, if 

1268
01:14:34,760 --> 01:14:37,600
you're playing Buffalo gets the 
buy, you can go skinnier on 

1269
01:14:37,600 --> 01:14:40,360
Buffalo or as if you're playing 
Buffalo doesn't get the buy, you

1270
01:14:40,360 --> 01:14:42,680
want to go vertical. 
It's the same thing for the 

1271
01:14:42,680 --> 01:14:44,800
Chiefs. 
If you're going Chiefs, don't 

1272
01:14:44,800 --> 01:14:47,600
get the buy. 
Load them up, baby. 

1273
01:14:47,600 --> 01:14:50,720
You better be jamming Chiefs in 
there or again, you're gonna be 

1274
01:14:50,720 --> 01:14:53,120
in a world of hurt when the 
cards turn over in the Super 

1275
01:14:53,120 --> 01:14:55,360
Bowl. 
And I'm sitting there with 10 

1276
01:14:55,360 --> 01:14:58,800
live players because I have 7 
Chiefs and three of whoever the 

1277
01:14:58,800 --> 01:15:01,360
opponent is in the Super Bowl. 
And you're sitting there with 

1278
01:15:01,360 --> 01:15:05,040
five because you drafted 3 
Chiefs and two guys from the 

1279
01:15:05,040 --> 01:15:06,280
other team and a bunch of one 
offs. 

1280
01:15:06,280 --> 01:15:09,240
Like you're literally guaranteed
to lose to me because I have you

1281
01:15:09,240 --> 01:15:11,280
blocked. 
You can't make a lineup that I 

1282
01:15:11,280 --> 01:15:13,840
can't make right? 
Like that's that's the whole 

1283
01:15:13,840 --> 01:15:16,720
concept in playoff basketball 
that a lot of people miss is 

1284
01:15:17,280 --> 01:15:20,360
it's about having all of the 
combos covered. 

1285
01:15:21,600 --> 01:15:23,160
But all right, we can go to wide
receiver now. 

1286
01:15:23,600 --> 01:15:29,760
Yeah, let's go to wide receiver.
And so I guess we just read out 

1287
01:15:29,760 --> 01:15:31,880
who were excited. 
I read out kind of at the top of

1288
01:15:31,880 --> 01:15:34,280
the show who were excited about 
getting into the playoffs. 

1289
01:15:34,280 --> 01:15:37,160
So we're excited about Nico, 
excited about Jamar, we're 

1290
01:15:37,160 --> 01:15:42,600
excited about T Higgins. 
And who else would you say? 

1291
01:15:42,600 --> 01:15:48,920
Maybe George Pickens, maybe they
flowers JSN a lot of a lot of 

1292
01:15:48,920 --> 01:15:51,760
guys who have who have kind of 
flashed big games. 

1293
01:15:52,320 --> 01:15:55,160
Right. 
That you, you, you have hope for

1294
01:15:55,240 --> 01:15:59,840
that. 
I mean, this guy, Cortland 

1295
01:15:59,840 --> 01:16:02,720
Sutton, not only a guy I'm 
excited to see on my, on my 

1296
01:16:02,720 --> 01:16:05,840
basketball teams. 
Imagine telling yourself that 

1297
01:16:05,840 --> 01:16:08,400
this summer you're so stoked to 
have Cortland Sutton. 

1298
01:16:08,400 --> 01:16:11,280
Like Cortland Sutton was like 
the consolation prize for like, 

1299
01:16:11,600 --> 01:16:14,160
damn it, I didn't draft enough 
wide receivers early. 

1300
01:16:14,640 --> 01:16:17,240
Right now you're stoked to have 
him on your team. 

1301
01:16:17,480 --> 01:16:20,240
But not only is he a player I 
want on my regular season 

1302
01:16:20,240 --> 01:16:23,440
basketball teams as they advance
to the playoffs, he's a player 

1303
01:16:23,640 --> 01:16:27,480
that is an awesome free square 
in playoff basketball because 

1304
01:16:27,760 --> 01:16:31,200
the Broncos are making the 
playoffs and Cortland Sutton is 

1305
01:16:31,200 --> 01:16:35,240
the clear alpha on the team. 
So it's very easy to to say 

1306
01:16:35,240 --> 01:16:38,000
like, hey, if I'm taking this 
little one off in the Broncos 

1307
01:16:38,000 --> 01:16:40,840
land, Cortland Sutton is a great
way to play it. 

1308
01:16:41,080 --> 01:16:44,400
He's the one I'm most confident 
in that could get me some points

1309
01:16:44,400 --> 01:16:48,160
to help me through Week 1. 
I'm not going very many Broncos.

1310
01:16:48,240 --> 01:16:51,840
Like to be clear, I don't think 
I'd ever even take like 3 

1311
01:16:51,840 --> 01:16:55,200
Broncos. 
I might take Bo Nicks, Cortland 

1312
01:16:55,200 --> 01:16:57,280
Sutton and use it to advance 
A-Team. 

1313
01:16:57,320 --> 01:16:59,280
Like that's my bye week 
coverage, right? 

1314
01:16:59,680 --> 01:17:03,280
But the fact that those are both
free at the end of drafts and 

1315
01:17:03,280 --> 01:17:06,360
they're going to make the 
playoffs, that's a really good 

1316
01:17:06,360 --> 01:17:08,960
spot in my opinion. 
So had to had to throw Cortland 

1317
01:17:08,960 --> 01:17:11,800
Sutton out there. 
You mentioned no great shot. 

1318
01:17:12,640 --> 01:17:16,120
George Pickens also a great one 
for playoff basketball. 

1319
01:17:16,120 --> 01:17:19,160
He's a little contested though. 
The the cat's out of the bag on 

1320
01:17:19,160 --> 01:17:22,200
him. 
He's a good pick, this guy. 

1321
01:17:22,520 --> 01:17:25,760
Not a pick that you can make in 
playoff basketball because his 

1322
01:17:25,760 --> 01:17:27,720
team will not be in the 
playoffs. 

1323
01:17:28,600 --> 01:17:33,800
However, we have to talk about 
the fact that I got absolutely 

1324
01:17:33,800 --> 01:17:38,720
fucking buried by Jerry Judy, my
arch nemesis, I mean. 

1325
01:17:39,520 --> 01:17:41,280
I think he might like football 
again. 

1326
01:17:41,880 --> 01:17:44,240
I think he does. 
I think you needed Jameis to 

1327
01:17:44,280 --> 01:17:46,320
unlock Jerry, Judy says a 
little. 

1328
01:17:46,320 --> 01:17:50,280
Bit it's like actually like the 
perfect QB for him who like 

1329
01:17:51,160 --> 01:17:56,280
inspires his best play. 
Yes, like most players, that 

1330
01:17:56,280 --> 01:17:59,880
actually probably has very 
little impact with the Jimenez 

1331
01:17:59,880 --> 01:18:03,200
charisma and personality. 
No, yeah, actually is bringing 

1332
01:18:03,200 --> 01:18:04,880
the best out of Jerry. 
Judy, is that what you're kind 

1333
01:18:04,880 --> 01:18:07,320
of saying? 
Yes, yeah, unironically, it is 

1334
01:18:07,320 --> 01:18:11,120
very good for him to have Jameis
Winston, not just because of the

1335
01:18:11,280 --> 01:18:14,800
Yolo ball Chuck it up mentality,
but because I think he has 

1336
01:18:14,800 --> 01:18:16,920
brought fun back to football for
Jerry Judy. 

1337
01:18:16,920 --> 01:18:20,200
He likes his job again. 
He does like his job again. 

1338
01:18:20,520 --> 01:18:25,520
I will say just as an aside, if 
you're getting paid $40 million 

1339
01:18:25,520 --> 01:18:29,480
a year and you can't find it 
within yourself to be motivated.

1340
01:18:30,640 --> 01:18:32,440
Oh, I knew. 
I knew there was. 

1341
01:18:32,480 --> 01:18:36,280
You have to find some way there.
There might be there might be 

1342
01:18:36,280 --> 01:18:41,240
some issues like I, I I still 
think you know, and I I am not. 

1343
01:18:41,240 --> 01:18:44,320
I don't want to shit on Jerry 
Judy here in the wake of his 

1344
01:18:44,320 --> 01:18:47,000
incredible, you know, best, best
game of his career. 

1345
01:18:47,000 --> 01:18:49,480
Probably will be the best game 
he ever has, you know. 

1346
01:18:49,800 --> 01:18:58,040
But you know. 
And I actually I don't. 

1347
01:18:59,040 --> 01:19:03,000
I don't think so. 
I'm pretty, I feel quite 

1348
01:19:03,000 --> 01:19:05,360
confident that's the best game 
Jerry Judy will ever have in his

1349
01:19:05,360 --> 01:19:10,240
NFL career. 
The and the reason The reason 

1350
01:19:10,240 --> 01:19:13,640
200 yards. 
It is hard to put up to 100 

1351
01:19:13,640 --> 01:19:19,200
yards, but he did have 142 
yarder this season as well. 

1352
01:19:21,640 --> 01:19:24,840
So like, maybe I mean, maybe 
there is the high watermark mark

1353
01:19:25,120 --> 01:19:33,360
on his yardage counts, but this 
is like Jerry Judy is like 

1354
01:19:33,360 --> 01:19:36,680
supremely talented, supremely 
talented. 

1355
01:19:37,360 --> 01:19:42,480
He was like the best player on a
stacked, absolutely stacked Bama

1356
01:19:42,480 --> 01:19:46,520
team. 
Like shoe in like nailed on 

1357
01:19:46,520 --> 01:19:51,320
first round pick like. 
Supremely. 

1358
01:19:51,360 --> 01:19:52,000
Talented. 
I'm not. 

1359
01:19:52,240 --> 01:19:54,520
I'm not ready to say he's 
supremely talented. 

1360
01:19:54,520 --> 01:19:55,800
He. 
Clearly is. 

1361
01:19:55,960 --> 01:19:58,640
Off of a couple good games with 
James like. 

1362
01:19:58,760 --> 01:20:00,640
But he clearly is supremely 
talented. 

1363
01:20:00,640 --> 01:20:03,080
I mean, it was a head wrecker. 
Why doesn't why? 

1364
01:20:03,240 --> 01:20:05,680
Why it wasn't coming? 
Together career. 

1365
01:20:05,840 --> 01:20:10,040
His entire career, he's been 
nothing even remotely close to 

1366
01:20:10,040 --> 01:20:13,480
supremely talented. 
He's been supremely shit for his

1367
01:20:13,480 --> 01:20:14,360
entire. 
Well, he's been an 

1368
01:20:14,360 --> 01:20:17,600
underachiever, but that doesn't 
mean he didn't have the talent 

1369
01:20:17,600 --> 01:20:19,600
already. 
That's the kindest way to put 

1370
01:20:19,600 --> 01:20:20,080
it. 
Yeah. 

1371
01:20:20,400 --> 01:20:25,600
An underachiever. 
I mean, like I I now, to be 

1372
01:20:25,600 --> 01:20:27,960
clear, I drafted Jerry Judy in 
basketball, OK? 

1373
01:20:27,960 --> 01:20:31,480
I thought the price for what you
were like, I've got like 5% 

1374
01:20:31,480 --> 01:20:33,040
Jerry Judy. 
I'm not sitting here with a 

1375
01:20:33,040 --> 01:20:36,760
stone 0 Jerry Judy bag, You 
know, In fact, he's helping a 

1376
01:20:36,760 --> 01:20:39,160
couple 55 fives advance after 
that monster game. 

1377
01:20:39,160 --> 01:20:42,160
So like, I harbor no ill will 
towards Jerry Judy. 

1378
01:20:43,120 --> 01:20:46,080
That is not true. 
It's it's true, it's true. 

1379
01:20:46,160 --> 01:20:47,640
I harbor no ill will towards 
him. 

1380
01:20:47,640 --> 01:20:52,160
I wish him the best. 
I'm just I'm wondering if he's 

1381
01:20:52,160 --> 01:20:57,080
so good, why did it take this 
many years to do absolutely 

1382
01:20:57,080 --> 01:21:00,360
anything? 
Because he didn't like his. 

1383
01:21:00,360 --> 01:21:04,240
Job he didn't like his job all 
right we could we could move on 

1384
01:21:04,240 --> 01:21:08,480
from Jerry Judy, let's let's go 
to the next chart here there's a

1385
01:21:08,480 --> 01:21:14,800
guy here that man I just I I 
need to play this guy as much as

1386
01:21:14,800 --> 01:21:19,920
I possibly can to close the 
season out because I feel quite 

1387
01:21:19,920 --> 01:21:25,680
confident that the nuclear game 
is coming and I just don't like 

1388
01:21:26,000 --> 01:21:28,920
I know people like this guy I 
know I'm not alone in this 

1389
01:21:28,920 --> 01:21:33,480
opinion it's it's just kind of 
like you know when they when 

1390
01:21:33,480 --> 01:21:36,640
they were like first testing the
atomic bomb and they're like 

1391
01:21:36,640 --> 01:21:39,080
this is going to be a really big
explosion like this shit's going

1392
01:21:39,080 --> 01:21:42,400
to be big everyone stand back 
like like we got to be far away 

1393
01:21:43,120 --> 01:21:46,000
and then they actually detonate 
the thing and they see the 

1394
01:21:46,000 --> 01:21:50,360
mushroom cloud rise up and it's 
just like holy shit like the 

1395
01:21:50,800 --> 01:21:54,800
you're feeling the shockwave. 
That's what I'm expecting from 

1396
01:21:54,800 --> 01:22:00,000
Nico Collins at some point here 
soon, because in these past few 

1397
01:22:00,000 --> 01:22:03,720
games, Nico Collins just keeps 
getting touchdown after 

1398
01:22:03,720 --> 01:22:07,800
touchdown, big play after big 
play, called back, and they're 

1399
01:22:07,800 --> 01:22:11,680
typically called back on these 
stupid penalties that the Texans

1400
01:22:11,920 --> 01:22:13,280
are. 
Nothing to do with the play. 

1401
01:22:14,200 --> 01:22:18,600
I mean alignment on the other 
side of the field went a yard 

1402
01:22:18,880 --> 01:22:22,520
down the field too much. 
Yeah, the Texans and Patriots 

1403
01:22:22,520 --> 01:22:25,800
have to be two of the least 
disciplined teams in the league 

1404
01:22:25,800 --> 01:22:28,480
as far as, like, getting their 
shit together with penalties. 

1405
01:22:28,800 --> 01:22:31,880
It's infuriating. 
Like on the off chance that 

1406
01:22:32,120 --> 01:22:35,360
anyone who hears this could ever
say anything to those teams, 

1407
01:22:36,040 --> 01:22:40,400
like, obviously congratulations 
if you made it to be, you know, 

1408
01:22:40,600 --> 01:22:43,240
on the coaching staff of an NFL 
team, you're you're clearly like

1409
01:22:43,600 --> 01:22:47,000
in the top of your peer group to
ascend to that level of coaching

1410
01:22:47,000 --> 01:22:49,960
football. 
Absolutely embarrassing to have 

1411
01:22:49,960 --> 01:22:52,880
a team that commits penalties in
the way that the Patriots and 

1412
01:22:52,880 --> 01:22:56,240
the Texans commit penalties. 
If you've managed to make it 

1413
01:22:56,240 --> 01:22:59,520
this far in the NFL, you 
absolutely have the capability 

1414
01:22:59,560 --> 01:23:01,160
to sort that shit out. 
Do better. 

1415
01:23:01,200 --> 01:23:05,560
Like holy crap, it is just I I'd
be so embarrassed if I was in 

1416
01:23:05,560 --> 01:23:10,520
charge of a team that is because
it's not the the thing that is 

1417
01:23:10,520 --> 01:23:12,320
so frustrating. 
They're not talent mistakes, 

1418
01:23:12,320 --> 01:23:15,720
it's just like misorganization. 
And it's and it's the same 

1419
01:23:15,720 --> 01:23:20,600
mistakes over and over. 
Like, how many times can one 

1420
01:23:20,600 --> 01:23:25,160
player line up off sites like 
getting an offensive offsides 

1421
01:23:25,160 --> 01:23:26,880
penalty? 
You're getting a legal motion 

1422
01:23:26,880 --> 01:23:30,000
multiple times. 
Like, this is something you can 

1423
01:23:30,000 --> 01:23:32,240
practice. 
This is just it's inexorable. 

1424
01:23:32,760 --> 01:23:35,400
Yeah. 
So I I had to get on my soapbox 

1425
01:23:35,400 --> 01:23:37,080
there. 
But the the long and short of 

1426
01:23:37,080 --> 01:23:40,080
that is Nigo Collins is 
absolutely primed. 

1427
01:23:40,160 --> 01:23:44,560
And the other thing is too like 
he keeps I mean, Pat talks about

1428
01:23:44,560 --> 01:23:47,920
the splash zone in his weekly 
write up a lot and talks about 

1429
01:23:47,920 --> 01:23:50,880
how like the Texans really 
target the splash zone. 

1430
01:23:51,640 --> 01:23:54,600
I feel like every freaking catch
I see from Nico Collins is in 

1431
01:23:54,600 --> 01:23:57,920
the splash zone. 
And every time, like if I'm 

1432
01:23:57,920 --> 01:24:01,200
fading Nico Collins, every time 
I see him get a ball there, I'm 

1433
01:24:01,200 --> 01:24:04,920
like, Oh no, like this could be 
a how it feels like every catch 

1434
01:24:05,240 --> 01:24:08,440
could be a house full. 
He feels like very AJ Brownish 

1435
01:24:08,440 --> 01:24:09,840
to me. 
You know what I mean? 

1436
01:24:09,840 --> 01:24:13,120
Like he has the ball in space 
and it's just scary like this. 

1437
01:24:13,120 --> 01:24:15,280
Guy, can anybody, can anybody 
tackle this guy? 

1438
01:24:15,600 --> 01:24:19,240
Yeah, exactly. 
So had to had to say that about 

1439
01:24:19,240 --> 01:24:25,960
Nico Collins here. 
OK, I had one question for you, 

1440
01:24:25,960 --> 01:24:28,440
Draco. 
This is not playoff basketball 

1441
01:24:28,440 --> 01:24:30,600
relevant. 
It's really just more for people

1442
01:24:30,600 --> 01:24:33,840
that are like in managed league 
setting, setting lineups, I 

1443
01:24:33,840 --> 01:24:38,240
guess for like DFS purposes too.
But if you've got Debo or Jawan 

1444
01:24:38,240 --> 01:24:42,000
Jennings on your team, Oh my 
God, are these guys just dead? 

1445
01:24:42,000 --> 01:24:43,480
Like, what are we? 
What are we doing? 

1446
01:24:43,520 --> 01:24:49,200
Here, so I'll look up Debo first
and kind of like dive into his. 

1447
01:24:52,080 --> 01:25:01,520
So Debo he had five targets with
with five air yards And and I I 

1448
01:25:02,040 --> 01:25:06,320
in in, in the most recent game, 
and I guess you, you, you can 

1449
01:25:06,320 --> 01:25:09,240
blame the shoulder, you can 
blame the snow, all that kind of

1450
01:25:09,240 --> 01:25:17,200
stuff. 
And in in that last game and 

1451
01:25:17,200 --> 01:25:19,920
then yeah, it it's just been a 
weak season for him. 

1452
01:25:20,040 --> 01:25:23,840
It's been a very weak season 
where he's definitely running 

1453
01:25:23,840 --> 01:25:28,520
into routes. 
But like in, in, in the in the 

1454
01:25:28,520 --> 01:25:32,040
Devo good season. 
Obviously he he he he kept 

1455
01:25:32,040 --> 01:25:36,480
housing and rushes and and quasi
rushes for touchdowns. 

1456
01:25:36,880 --> 01:25:39,800
But in that first half of the 
season, he'd also played really,

1457
01:25:39,800 --> 01:25:44,000
really well as a receiver and 
was like getting open down the 

1458
01:25:44,000 --> 01:25:48,280
field and catching all that. 
It doesn't I, I, I don't know, 

1459
01:25:48,280 --> 01:25:50,440
it just he's not doing that this
year. 

1460
01:25:50,720 --> 01:25:52,400
He's not getting heavily 
targeted. 

1461
01:25:53,880 --> 01:25:59,080
And, and then Juan let me pull 
up Juan as well. 

1462
01:26:00,720 --> 01:26:03,000
So Juan's actually running more 
routes. 

1463
01:26:04,160 --> 01:26:08,920
He's getting more targets. 
I, I don't know, I hate to say 

1464
01:26:08,920 --> 01:26:13,880
it like it feels silly like 
this. 

1465
01:26:14,040 --> 01:26:18,080
This stats the the the most 
recent stats say that Juan 

1466
01:26:18,080 --> 01:26:21,080
Jennings should be projected 
higher than Tebow. 

1467
01:26:21,480 --> 01:26:24,600
Oh, I agree wholeheartedly. 
I've been, I mean, I've been 

1468
01:26:24,600 --> 01:26:28,280
saying it for like the last 
couple weeks when when we were 

1469
01:26:28,280 --> 01:26:30,600
doing, you know, closing up dog 
bowl drafts. 

1470
01:26:30,600 --> 01:26:34,440
Like the last few weeks, I had 
Debo and Juan Jennings basically

1471
01:26:34,440 --> 01:26:38,360
back-to-back in my ranks. 
And you know, granted, it didn't

1472
01:26:38,360 --> 01:26:41,040
work out taking either of them 
over the last few weeks, right? 

1473
01:26:41,240 --> 01:26:46,240
It stunk, but yeah, I mean. 
I I want to pay a a pretty close

1474
01:26:46,240 --> 01:26:50,080
attention to the Brock Purdy and
practice reports. 

1475
01:26:50,560 --> 01:26:54,400
I heard that he's he's expected 
to practice in full this week. 

1476
01:26:54,680 --> 01:26:56,640
OK. 
I think that's like a pretty 

1477
01:26:56,640 --> 01:27:00,960
material difference from like 
not practicing at all or getting

1478
01:27:00,960 --> 01:27:05,520
in one practice where he's 
showing these like softballs 

1479
01:27:05,960 --> 01:27:09,680
and, and then they have to shoot
them down after 5 minutes to 

1480
01:27:09,680 --> 01:27:13,280
like a full practice all week. 
So I, I, I think that's, that's 

1481
01:27:13,280 --> 01:27:14,880
something to pay close attention
to. 

1482
01:27:14,880 --> 01:27:18,720
If we get another bad week then 
then we're it's trouble. 

1483
01:27:19,680 --> 01:27:23,080
So tell me if this is too crazy 
for you then. 

1484
01:27:23,960 --> 01:27:28,280
I mean, what if we get the good 
practice reports from Purdy? 

1485
01:27:28,280 --> 01:27:30,960
No limitations, Fogo the whole 
week, right? 

1486
01:27:31,760 --> 01:27:34,760
And then as a set back. 
No, I'm saying do you think it's

1487
01:27:34,760 --> 01:27:39,760
crazy if I just absolutely ate 
in to 49ers stacks this week 

1488
01:27:39,760 --> 01:27:42,680
just knowing no one wants to 
touch him with a 10 foot pole? 

1489
01:27:45,440 --> 01:27:47,480
I think that's pretty. 
I think that's pretty 

1490
01:27:47,480 --> 01:27:51,520
reasonable. 
I cannot wait for next week on 

1491
01:27:51,520 --> 01:27:54,640
stat chasing when I get to talk 
about how much money I lost 

1492
01:27:54,640 --> 01:27:59,640
slamming the 49ers. 
All right, last guy on this 

1493
01:27:59,640 --> 01:28:03,560
chart is really, it's just a 
very quick playoff basketball 

1494
01:28:03,560 --> 01:28:07,000
thing. 
Also a commentary on his last 

1495
01:28:07,000 --> 01:28:08,520
nuclear game. 
Terry Mclaurin. 

1496
01:28:08,840 --> 01:28:11,800
Terry Mclaurin's pretty boom 
bust profile. 

1497
01:28:11,800 --> 01:28:16,480
It feels right he's having. 
Yeah, I, I, I think we, it, it 

1498
01:28:16,480 --> 01:28:18,840
was, it wasn't last week we 
talked about it was the week 

1499
01:28:18,840 --> 01:28:24,800
before where his like targets 
per out run is like in the 20s. 

1500
01:28:25,520 --> 01:28:31,360
I guess it it the average over 
the years 21%, but his A dot is 

1501
01:28:32,120 --> 01:28:37,440
is 14 and and, and he's also 
been catching touchdowns. 

1502
01:28:38,040 --> 01:28:40,640
I will say the IT was 
encouraging. 

1503
01:28:40,640 --> 01:28:43,160
The last game is actually a 
little bit more encouraging in 

1504
01:28:43,160 --> 01:28:47,600
in terms of the stability. 
He got 8 total targets and then 

1505
01:28:47,600 --> 01:28:51,680
his A dot was about 7. 
Yeah, it was shorter stuff. 

1506
01:28:52,600 --> 01:28:57,840
And so so that that is an 
interesting that they're that 

1507
01:28:57,840 --> 01:29:00,520
they're given more variety to 
his play. 

1508
01:29:02,280 --> 01:29:06,040
Yeah, no, I, I don't know if 
it's something where like that's

1509
01:29:06,040 --> 01:29:09,000
going to be a trend or if it was
just like the noise from that 

1510
01:29:09,000 --> 01:29:11,200
one game where he got some 
shorter stuff because one of 

1511
01:29:11,200 --> 01:29:13,040
them was a, a goal line target, 
right? 

1512
01:29:13,040 --> 01:29:15,600
Where there's no there's he 
can't run 14. 

1513
01:29:15,600 --> 01:29:17,880
Yards, Right, right, right. 
There's no ADOC that exists, 

1514
01:29:17,880 --> 01:29:21,320
yeah. 
But it was encouraging for 

1515
01:29:21,320 --> 01:29:23,760
Terry. 
I do think that the Commanders 3

1516
01:29:23,760 --> 01:29:26,920
piece at the end of drafts, just
do Mclaurin Daniels, Bryan 

1517
01:29:26,920 --> 01:29:33,440
Robinson is a really nice way to
pick a different NFC team to 

1518
01:29:33,440 --> 01:29:37,640
help you advance a A-Team when 
you have an AFC bye week 

1519
01:29:37,640 --> 01:29:39,800
quarterback. 
Because a lot of the times I'm 

1520
01:29:39,800 --> 01:29:44,440
doing like the Packers or the 
Vikings, you know, as a way to 

1521
01:29:44,440 --> 01:29:47,160
help advance those teams. 
I think the Commanders are 

1522
01:29:47,160 --> 01:29:51,200
decent as well, and they've got 
strong enough playoff odds that 

1523
01:29:51,240 --> 01:29:54,240
that I think they're fine. 
I'm gonna guess that Quinton 

1524
01:29:54,240 --> 01:29:56,800
Johnson is free and and playoff 
westball. 

1525
01:29:57,280 --> 01:29:59,360
He's pretty free. 
The Chargers got a little 

1526
01:29:59,360 --> 01:30:01,520
expensive. 
The Chargers got steamed. 

1527
01:30:01,920 --> 01:30:04,520
I don't, I don't wanna like say 
it's because we talked about the

1528
01:30:04,520 --> 01:30:05,960
Chargers. 
I think it's also cuz we had 

1529
01:30:06,280 --> 01:30:09,480
some good games, but we talked 
about the Chargers on a pod that

1530
01:30:09,480 --> 01:30:11,920
we did when the way too early 
tournaments were up and they 

1531
01:30:11,920 --> 01:30:13,760
were one of the best clicks on 
the board then. 

1532
01:30:14,280 --> 01:30:16,000
And then they got really 
steamed. 

1533
01:30:16,080 --> 01:30:19,320
And as soon as the tournament 
opened, it was like everyone had

1534
01:30:19,320 --> 01:30:23,920
all this pent up Chargers energy
where they just needed to jam 

1535
01:30:23,920 --> 01:30:26,120
Chargers. 
And so Chargers got like a 

1536
01:30:26,120 --> 01:30:29,880
little steamed up where, you 
know, Dobbins and Herbert and 

1537
01:30:30,160 --> 01:30:33,400
Mcconkey were all going like a 
little earlier than I I thought 

1538
01:30:33,400 --> 01:30:36,600
they should be going. 
They're they're fine. 

1539
01:30:36,600 --> 01:30:38,120
They're like appropriately 
priced. 

1540
01:30:38,120 --> 01:30:39,880
Now. 
There was a just a brief minute 

1541
01:30:39,880 --> 01:30:42,680
where they're really steamy. 
It was kind of a race to the 

1542
01:30:42,680 --> 01:30:45,320
Chargers. 
Now that Dobbins has the injury 

1543
01:30:45,640 --> 01:30:49,360
and it really looks like none of
the backs, like Kamani Vidal 

1544
01:30:49,360 --> 01:30:51,880
does not look like someone I'm 
gonna draft for playoff bestball

1545
01:30:51,880 --> 01:30:53,640
at all. 
You know, it just it just seems 

1546
01:30:53,840 --> 01:30:57,520
so, so extraordinarily thin. 
So now that you don't have the 

1547
01:30:57,520 --> 01:31:01,120
running back to pair with the 
team, it makes them a lot less 

1548
01:31:01,120 --> 01:31:03,720
desirable as like this advance 
rate piece. 

1549
01:31:06,080 --> 01:31:09,320
And something like Quinton 
Johnson, you, you have to tell 

1550
01:31:09,320 --> 01:31:11,760
your that's, that's like a 
Chargers to the Super Bowl team 

1551
01:31:11,840 --> 01:31:13,640
almost if you're taking Quinton 
Johnson. 

1552
01:31:13,960 --> 01:31:18,440
The other thing you can do with 
it is you jammed 5 bills or five

1553
01:31:18,440 --> 01:31:22,320
chiefs and you're saying or not 
5 you jammed 5 lions say like 

1554
01:31:22,480 --> 01:31:24,720
which is hard. 
It's really hard to get 5 lines,

1555
01:31:24,720 --> 01:31:27,600
but maybe you got 5 bye week 
players like 4 lions in a chief 

1556
01:31:28,200 --> 01:31:31,840
that a bill right? 
And then you just slam Chargers 

1557
01:31:31,880 --> 01:31:36,680
and you're super heavy Chargers 
as the advance rate team and 

1558
01:31:36,680 --> 01:31:39,320
you're playing them making it a 
conference championship run. 

1559
01:31:39,600 --> 01:31:43,840
That's another way to do it. 
But yeah, I don't feel good 

1560
01:31:43,840 --> 01:31:46,960
about clicking Quinton Johnson 
or Will Disley, you know? 

1561
01:31:47,120 --> 01:31:49,960
But like, those are the 
Chargers. 

1562
01:31:50,040 --> 01:31:53,240
The Chiefs and Chargers are kind
of similar in that like, well, 

1563
01:31:53,240 --> 01:31:55,160
now with Dobbins injury, it's 
like hard. 

1564
01:31:55,160 --> 01:31:59,400
It's not really the same three 
piece, but with the commanders, 

1565
01:31:59,520 --> 01:32:01,640
sorry, the commanders and 
charters commanders have this 

1566
01:32:01,640 --> 01:32:03,880
three piece where it's like 
Maclaurin, Daniels, Brian 

1567
01:32:03,880 --> 01:32:06,040
Robinson. 
Chargers used to have it with 

1568
01:32:06,320 --> 01:32:10,240
Dobbins, Mcconkey, Herbert. 
Now it's more just like I'm, I'm

1569
01:32:10,240 --> 01:32:12,760
much more into like the Herbert 
Mcconkey skinnies. 

1570
01:32:15,000 --> 01:32:19,600
Right, all right, we can, we can
go to the last chart. 

1571
01:32:19,600 --> 01:32:29,000
Here, yeah and yeah and I guess 
and so wordy is like he he's a 

1572
01:32:29,000 --> 01:32:33,400
kind of like cut and dried. 
If you're taking them, you're 

1573
01:32:33,400 --> 01:32:37,040
taking them because it's it's 
chief Super Bowl. 

1574
01:32:37,480 --> 01:32:40,320
He's kind of tertiary, but he 
has a big play explosiveness. 

1575
01:32:41,120 --> 01:32:44,840
He seems like the player that 
the the market would have no 

1576
01:32:44,840 --> 01:32:48,440
difficulty pricing. 
Yeah, he's he's in the kind of 

1577
01:32:48,440 --> 01:32:52,760
like middle rounds. 
He's he's a player where I'll 

1578
01:32:52,760 --> 01:32:56,040
often push him and like, if I 
don't get him, it's fine because

1579
01:32:56,040 --> 01:33:00,880
I'll take Hollywood Brown later.
But if I, if he comes back to me

1580
01:33:00,880 --> 01:33:02,920
cheap, great. 
I just want to try and jam in 

1581
01:33:02,920 --> 01:33:06,960
some like better non chiefs 
players instead of just like 

1582
01:33:06,960 --> 01:33:10,600
being really greedy to get 
worthy and and you'll get some 

1583
01:33:10,600 --> 01:33:13,240
still. 
So he he's not somebody where 

1584
01:33:13,720 --> 01:33:15,920
where you're like, OK, I'm 
playing Chiefs of the Super 

1585
01:33:15,920 --> 01:33:19,600
Bowl. 
Or it's because there's some 

1586
01:33:19,600 --> 01:33:22,200
chance that you earn to buy that
you're you're going to be fine 

1587
01:33:22,200 --> 01:33:24,160
with a skinnier chief stock. 
Right. 

1588
01:33:24,240 --> 01:33:27,600
I had, I had been playing quite 
a bit of Chiefs get the buy 

1589
01:33:28,400 --> 01:33:31,760
prior to this week. 
And then now where it looks like

1590
01:33:31,760 --> 01:33:34,560
it's, it's kind of a true coin 
flip for Bills Chiefs to get the

1591
01:33:34,560 --> 01:33:36,880
buy. 
And I, I think there's a lot of 

1592
01:33:36,880 --> 01:33:39,800
smart money on Bills to get the 
buy just based on how both teams

1593
01:33:39,800 --> 01:33:45,560
have looked recently. 
So I will, I'll tell you what, 

1594
01:33:45,760 --> 01:33:50,120
over this next week I will have 
more vertical Chiefs where I 

1595
01:33:50,120 --> 01:33:52,520
just literally just slam them 
all. 

1596
01:33:52,520 --> 01:33:55,320
My first round pick is like the 
best pick that I can make. 

1597
01:33:55,320 --> 01:33:57,600
It's probably like Alliance, 
like Jameer Gibbs. 

1598
01:33:57,920 --> 01:34:01,360
And then I'm just taking like 6 
Chiefs after that, you know, 

1599
01:34:01,480 --> 01:34:05,040
like trying to get as many as I 
can throw a couple 1 offs in 

1600
01:34:05,040 --> 01:34:08,280
there. 
And I remember that they were 

1601
01:34:08,360 --> 01:34:12,160
last year they were even though 
they had the, they did they 

1602
01:34:12,160 --> 01:34:14,480
have, I think they did have the 
buy even. 

1603
01:34:14,880 --> 01:34:16,600
Yeah. 
They had the buy. 

1604
01:34:17,160 --> 01:34:20,520
They still got really unpopular.
People were very queasy about 

1605
01:34:20,520 --> 01:34:21,640
Chiefs. 
Yeah. 

1606
01:34:21,640 --> 01:34:23,920
And it's interesting that we're 
seeing that again when there's 

1607
01:34:23,920 --> 01:34:26,560
like actually like a decent 
possibility that they don't get 

1608
01:34:26,560 --> 01:34:27,720
the buy. 
Yeah. 

1609
01:34:29,920 --> 01:34:35,640
And wow, this is this is a 
gross. 

1610
01:34:35,800 --> 01:34:41,280
It feels like it feels like a 
bunch of flies, just like lying 

1611
01:34:41,280 --> 01:34:48,040
around the X axis. 
Oh yeah, Evan in the chat says 

1612
01:34:48,040 --> 01:34:49,880
Chiefs were the three seed last 
year. 

1613
01:34:49,920 --> 01:34:51,640
Yeah, Ravens. 
OK, yeah, thank you. 

1614
01:34:51,680 --> 01:34:53,160
I. 
I yeah, yeah, yeah. 

1615
01:34:53,360 --> 01:34:55,640
I jammed all the Raven stuff and
was very. 

1616
01:34:55,680 --> 01:34:57,360
Yeah, I don't know why I 
blended. 

1617
01:34:57,360 --> 01:35:00,280
Thank you. 
Yeah, Chiefs 5 two years ago or 

1618
01:35:00,280 --> 01:35:02,960
something, I don't know. 
It all blends together, Greco. 

1619
01:35:03,480 --> 01:35:05,760
Yeah. 
All right, I've got a public 

1620
01:35:05,760 --> 01:35:07,440
service announcement for a new 
drafting playoff. 

1621
01:35:07,440 --> 01:35:10,360
Best of all, I know Deonte 
Johnson is sitting like on the 

1622
01:35:10,360 --> 01:35:12,720
edge of this chart, and you 
might be tempted to click him. 

1623
01:35:13,160 --> 01:35:18,160
Do not click Deonte Johnson. 
I don't think he plays a snap 

1624
01:35:18,200 --> 01:35:23,440
for the rest of the season. 
Like I, I think you're in danger

1625
01:35:23,440 --> 01:35:26,400
of this guy just not playing and
so. 

1626
01:35:26,400 --> 01:35:30,840
And he hasn't. 
Yeah, his his highest rate for 

1627
01:35:30,840 --> 01:35:34,960
the Ravens this year is 17%, and
it's like it's dipping. 

1628
01:35:35,560 --> 01:35:38,160
He refused. 
To go on the field in the game 

1629
01:35:38,160 --> 01:35:40,600
for the Ravens this last week 
they tried to get him out there 

1630
01:35:40,800 --> 01:35:45,200
and he said Nah, he he literally
gnaw waved the coach and said 

1631
01:35:45,200 --> 01:35:48,600
I'm not going out there because 
he's frustrated that he's not 

1632
01:35:48,600 --> 01:35:51,160
more involved. 
He's upset that the Ravens 

1633
01:35:51,160 --> 01:35:54,680
claimed him just to not use him,
to deny him from like a team 

1634
01:35:54,680 --> 01:35:56,280
that could have used him like 
the chief. 

1635
01:35:57,640 --> 01:35:58,840
And so he's. 
Some bad blood. 

1636
01:35:59,360 --> 01:36:01,400
Yeah, there's some bad blood, 
but guess what? 

1637
01:36:01,920 --> 01:36:03,800
The Ravens don't give a shit, 
buddy. 

1638
01:36:03,840 --> 01:36:06,760
Like, the Ravens are in it to 
win the Super Bowl. 

1639
01:36:06,920 --> 01:36:08,680
They don't care about your 
feelings, Deonte. 

1640
01:36:09,080 --> 01:36:12,800
Like, I'm sorry, I get dude, I'd
be frustrated too if I were him.

1641
01:36:12,800 --> 01:36:17,360
But to me, this is just one of 
those spots where, like, you put

1642
01:36:17,360 --> 01:36:20,160
your head down, you'd be a good 
soldier, you know? 

1643
01:36:20,200 --> 01:36:23,080
You, you do everything you can 
do to try and help the team 

1644
01:36:23,080 --> 01:36:25,720
succeed. 
And you, you try and contribute.

1645
01:36:27,200 --> 01:36:30,360
I know it's tough to comparison 
professional athletes, but we 

1646
01:36:30,360 --> 01:36:33,680
all have jobs, we all have 
disappointments in jobs. 

1647
01:36:33,680 --> 01:36:36,200
But at the end of the day, like 
you have to be a team player. 

1648
01:36:36,400 --> 01:36:39,600
Like if the team wins, everybody
wins. 

1649
01:36:40,120 --> 01:36:42,080
Right. 
That's the way you have to think

1650
01:36:42,080 --> 01:36:44,320
about it. 
Yeah, if you Fast forward from 

1651
01:36:44,320 --> 01:36:48,000
now to March and the Ravens have
won the Super Bowl, you think 

1652
01:36:48,000 --> 01:36:51,840
Deonte Johnson's like, Nah, fam,
keep that Super Bowl ring. 

1653
01:36:51,880 --> 01:36:55,040
I don't want it. 
Like, there's no fucking chance.

1654
01:36:55,040 --> 01:36:58,520
He's like, he's stoked to get a 
ring. 

1655
01:36:58,680 --> 01:37:01,520
So like, dude, just suck it up, 
buttercup. 

1656
01:37:01,520 --> 01:37:03,680
Like I you're right to be 
frustrated. 

1657
01:37:03,840 --> 01:37:07,320
You're right, it's kind of 
shitty what they did, but it's a

1658
01:37:07,320 --> 01:37:09,360
game. 
And like, I get that it sucks to

1659
01:37:09,360 --> 01:37:13,320
be a piece in a game, but you're
being compensated handsomely for

1660
01:37:13,320 --> 01:37:14,920
it. 
And like, you knew what you were

1661
01:37:14,920 --> 01:37:18,160
signing up for. 
So anyway, don't draft Deonte 

1662
01:37:18,160 --> 01:37:20,000
Johnson. 
He's probably not playing at all

1663
01:37:20,000 --> 01:37:23,560
and the Ravens have absolutely 
no reason to release the guy. 

1664
01:37:23,720 --> 01:37:26,680
They don't want him to go sign 
with another team, right? 

1665
01:37:26,680 --> 01:37:28,320
And. 
Some like revenge narrative, 

1666
01:37:28,320 --> 01:37:30,360
yeah. 
Deante Johnson is a prisoner of 

1667
01:37:30,360 --> 01:37:33,880
war right now, basically, right 
He's. 

1668
01:37:33,880 --> 01:37:36,080
A political prisoner. 
Yes. 

1669
01:37:36,640 --> 01:37:41,200
And I've got one question for 
you before we wrap up here. 

1670
01:37:41,280 --> 01:37:43,400
Sure. 
DeAndre Hopkins or Hollywood 

1671
01:37:43,400 --> 01:37:45,920
Brown for playoff basketball if 
you're building. 

1672
01:37:45,960 --> 01:37:47,320
Hopkins. 
Hopkins, OK. 

1673
01:37:49,000 --> 01:37:51,280
Holly Brown's basically free. 
I mean, not for long. 

1674
01:37:51,280 --> 01:37:53,600
Where the sidekick is, is 
rapidly. 

1675
01:37:53,600 --> 01:37:55,640
Right. 
I I mean, Hollywood is 

1676
01:37:55,640 --> 01:37:59,840
interesting and but Hopkins is 
playing right now. 

1677
01:38:00,320 --> 01:38:03,920
Yeah, he's not 8 targets in the 
last game like he was. 

1678
01:38:03,960 --> 01:38:09,240
He had one of his highest route 
participations and at 65% this 

1679
01:38:09,240 --> 01:38:12,280
week. 
And let me see where Dada 

1680
01:38:12,920 --> 01:38:17,360
actually came in and routes 
because I wonder if if they just

1681
01:38:17,360 --> 01:38:23,240
had like a lower drop back. 
It's not coming up. 

1682
01:38:23,240 --> 01:38:26,600
It's not coming up and God damn 
it. 

1683
01:38:29,680 --> 01:38:32,480
Well, I I do. 
Route, so we had 34 routes. 

1684
01:38:32,960 --> 01:38:35,720
So that was one office season at
total high. 

1685
01:38:36,280 --> 01:38:42,240
And so I coming off the injury 
seeing like an uptick in usage 

1686
01:38:42,240 --> 01:38:46,880
like that is pretty encouraging.
Yeah, and I, I do appreciate the

1687
01:38:46,880 --> 01:38:51,040
sanity check because I keep 
getting into a situation where I

1688
01:38:51,040 --> 01:38:54,800
have chiefs and I'm staring down
like DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier 

1689
01:38:54,800 --> 01:38:56,520
Worthy. 
And then I'm like, you know 

1690
01:38:56,520 --> 01:38:59,920
what, I'm just going to pass on 
these guys in perpetuity. 

1691
01:39:00,000 --> 01:39:02,440
And if they just come back to me
really late, it's fine. 

1692
01:39:03,040 --> 01:39:07,120
And if not, excuse me. 
If not, then I've got Hollywood 

1693
01:39:07,120 --> 01:39:08,680
Brown late and I'll just take 
him. 

1694
01:39:08,920 --> 01:39:11,840
And I was just looking at them 
as like two equivalent, I think.

1695
01:39:12,080 --> 01:39:13,800
I do think I need to kind of 
reply. 

1696
01:39:13,800 --> 01:39:15,920
Yeah, yeah, he's, he's a tear 
above. 

1697
01:39:16,200 --> 01:39:20,800
No, I I agree it just like I 
needed it helped me to hear you 

1698
01:39:20,800 --> 01:39:27,800
say it so, so thank you to 
before, before we close up here,

1699
01:39:27,800 --> 01:39:30,240
did you have any other receivers
that you wanted to talk about 

1700
01:39:30,240 --> 01:39:34,360
here? 
I'm looking through it. 

1701
01:39:36,680 --> 01:39:40,920
So I guess the only the only 
thing that strikes me is we're 

1702
01:39:40,920 --> 01:39:44,000
talking about here is like the 
Packers guys. 

1703
01:39:45,440 --> 01:39:51,560
And I guess that the question 
that that presents to me is, so 

1704
01:39:51,560 --> 01:39:57,960
there's somebody who and it's 
tough to like envision them 

1705
01:39:57,960 --> 01:40:02,840
making a run, but then if they 
do make a run. 

1706
01:40:03,720 --> 01:40:05,480
Like you want a lot of these 
guys. 

1707
01:40:05,800 --> 01:40:08,160
Yeah, vertical Packers are very 
good right now in my. 

1708
01:40:08,160 --> 01:40:11,840
Opinion because like if the 
Packers make the Super Bowl, 

1709
01:40:12,560 --> 01:40:15,720
you're going to need the Pack. 
The cheap Packers receivers like

1710
01:40:15,720 --> 01:40:20,040
you just will. 
Yeah, that's a good shout. 

1711
01:40:20,200 --> 01:40:23,800
And, and I think getting like 5 
Packers like you want, you want 

1712
01:40:23,800 --> 01:40:26,640
to hear something fun is 5 
Ravens, 5 Packers. 

1713
01:40:28,200 --> 01:40:32,800
That is pretty fun, yeah. 55 
Chiefs 5 Packers You know 5. 

1714
01:40:32,800 --> 01:40:36,560
Builders right like it it it 
seems like a great one to pair 

1715
01:40:36,560 --> 01:40:38,920
with a one seed. 
Yeah, yeah. 

1716
01:40:39,800 --> 01:40:44,720
Well, tonight as we close out, 
we do have a special treat for 

1717
01:40:44,880 --> 01:40:47,960
all of the faithful stat chasing
listeners. 

1718
01:40:49,040 --> 01:40:53,960
You know, we, we really wanted 
to reflect how this best fall 

1719
01:40:53,960 --> 01:40:59,480
season has felt for all of us as
we watch Derrick Henry just 

1720
01:40:59,480 --> 01:41:04,080
absolutely jam it down our 
throats and cough and dance with

1721
01:41:04,080 --> 01:41:06,920
my lifeless corpse of my 
basketball portfolio. 

1722
01:41:07,400 --> 01:41:14,520
And so the very multi talented 
editor of Pete's videos, Buck, 

1723
01:41:14,520 --> 01:41:19,040
who is in the ship chasing 
Discord, put together a little 

1724
01:41:19,040 --> 01:41:24,760
song for us here called Wake Me 
Up When the Hambur Ends. 

1725
01:41:25,200 --> 01:41:26,720
We're holding space for it right
now. 

1726
01:41:35,080 --> 01:41:37,160
You're going to have to tell me 
when to end the stream because 

1727
01:41:37,280 --> 01:41:38,880
I'm the one sharing it. 
I don't hear it. 

1728
01:41:51,920 --> 01:41:59,360
Why the fuck Walmart pass? 
He's run on every plate of 

1729
01:42:01,040 --> 01:42:07,160
grass. 
Wake me up when the amber runs. 

1730
01:42:12,160 --> 01:42:23,240
Here comes the king again. 
Bracking of the yards, burying 

1731
01:42:23,240 --> 01:42:33,720
my team again. 
A fucking superstar as I lay my 

1732
01:42:33,720 --> 01:42:40,040
teams to rest, Henry makes sure 
I have lost. 

1733
01:42:40,920 --> 01:42:44,160
Wake me up when the hammer ends.