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Week 14 is done, the fantasy 
playoffs are upon us, and Draco 

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and I are above the expected 
advance rate with our FFPC 

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basketball teams. 
Prepare for an hour of gloating 

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and more on stat chasing. 
Pat Fryer, Helmo. 

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This is what? 
This is what I'm hot. 

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Anita, hand job fix your sight. 
Jamar and Alpha play Chase, you 

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can't handle the heat. 
It looks like we're finally at 

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this point, You're right. 
We did it, Draco. 

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We advanced well above the 
expected advance rate on FFPC 

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all season. 
They told us advance rate is 

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actually all that matters, and 
you guys suck because you're not

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advancing more than you're 
expected teams. 

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Well, look who's laughing now. 
We have 3.8% above the expected 

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advance rate. 
Let's go, baby. 

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I mean, it was, it was dire. 
There there were, there were. 

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Some There were some down 
moments, there were some bleak 

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feelings. 
Yes. 

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Many weeks I didn't even check 
my teams. 

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I mean, how could anyone who are
foreseen though that a strategy 

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that's predicated on anti 
fragility in the chaos of the 

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NFL season taking place would 
perform better after we have 

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time for some chaos to take 
place? 

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It's simply unprecedented. 
No one could have seen anything 

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like this kind. 
It it it not the way you say 

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that. 
It is actually kind of poetic 

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how this season kind of turned 
out where like more so than in 

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in recent years, the early 
running backs were just like 

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untouchable in the early weeks 
of the season. 

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And then towards the end, all of
that fragility, all of those 

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kind of 0 RB candidates break 
out, the receiver start putting 

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up points. 
It is. 

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It is kind of, it's poetic in in
just like how scheduled it was. 

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Yeah. 
And I mean, I I still feel like 

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in the range of outcomes for how
good or bad a specific season 

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run out is for 0RB, this was 
still a pretty bad one for 0 RB,

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right? 
Like you have lots of we, we 

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were talking about this 
yesterday when we're looking at 

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the teams that advanced for us, 
but so many, what would be 

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absurdly good teams are like, 
oh, this one had Brandon Iuke 

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and Rashi Rice and Stefan Diggs.
So I guess, I guess it was just,

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you know, DOA. 
And so you get so many of these 

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wide receiver injuries like 
every every week that I do the 

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charts for stat chasing. 
I have a line in the code that 

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is the list of players to 
exclude for season ending 

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injury. 
And I mean, the list of wide 

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receivers has always been like 
five times longer than the list 

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of running backs this season. 
And that's like in when we had 

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the most running backs that I 
was excluding, wide receivers 

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were still far more numerous. 
So it it was just a little bit 

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of a weird season for that. 
But I mean, zero RB isn't even 

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wholly predicated on injury, 
right? 

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It it's also that you have some 
of these running backs who might

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not have a job to start the 
season or might not be in, you 

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know, the primary back to start 
the season. 

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But as NFL teams find out more 
about who this player actually 

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is and how they actually fit 
into their team through the 

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process of discovery over the 
course of an NFL season, the 

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talent shines through. 
And that's, I feel like that's 

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really a better framing of 0 RB 
that we want to bet on the 

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things that we think are, are 
most likely to be true from a 

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talent perspective and let the 
chips fall where they may. 

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And that's kind of, I think 
that's better than saying like, 

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oh, it's just a strategy where 
you, you, you know, prey on the 

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injuries of players and you're 
really, you're just rooting for 

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all these bad things to happen. 
It's like, that's really not it.

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It's more, it's a much there's a
much rosier framing to it where 

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you're rooting for these plucky 
underdogs who have gone 

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undiscovered. 
Hugo Hubbard is like a good 

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example. 
Yeah. 

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Of somebody who was just very, 
very good, I'm like, yes, 

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injuries happen to have like 
benefited the sum, but he was 

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still like the bell cow. 
Yeah, Chase Brown's another 

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really good example where like 
this guy had a workhorse profile

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in college. 
We all really liked him last 

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year. 
Nothing happens, right? 

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This year, even to start the 
season, it doesn't look great 

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for him because they just 
refused to stop using Zac Moss, 

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right? 
Every time Chase Brown touches 

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the ball, it's like, wow, look 
at that guy compared to the guy 

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they're normally trying out 
here. 

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And in Chase Brown's situation, 
it did take an injury for him 

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to, but he was ending up as a 
good pick even without the 

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injury. 
Even prior to the injury, he was

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gonna be one of those like 0 RB 
hits where it's like he can 

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deliver a spike week here and 
there. 

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You know, the floor might not be
fantastic, but he was getting. 

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Touches. 
Yeah, but ultimately things 

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ended a lot better than. 
Bucky Irving, there's another 

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one. 
Yeah, Bucky Irving, another 

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great one. 
I mean, Tyrone, Tyrone Tracy, it

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man, Tyrone Tracy is 1 where I 
would have had a pretty hard 

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time seeing it coming in the way
that it did for him. 

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I I've got to think that Devin 
Singletary hit his injury stuff 

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that he had earlier. 
I have to think that's just 

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lingering because he's he's been
one of your favorites for years 

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00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:01,880
because I believe you've 
described it as creeping Ivy. 

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This guy just like takes over a 
whole backfield and strangles 

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out the other backs because 
coaches love him so much. 

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It's. 
So funny. 

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He's a great. 
Always been so funny. 

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Right, like as a from a, you 
know, raw athlete standpoint or 

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how funny is for fantasy, Like 
those are not the things that 

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Devin Singletary is. 
But you know what Devin 

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Singletary actually is fantastic
football player, great real 

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life, doesn't make mistakes, can
do all the stuff. 

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So in real life, football 
coaches love him and that 

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translates to him just having a 
stranglehold on the roll. 

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So I, I would have thought it 
was really difficult if you told

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me like Devin Singletary will be
healthy and active in week 14 

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and Tyrone Tracy is going to get
the vast majority of the work, 

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I'd say that's pretty far 
fetched to me. 

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But here we are. 
And, and that's again, that kind

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of like IS0RB in a nutshell. 
We don't really know anything. 

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So why don't we just bet on the 
people that we have evidence of 

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them being talented, right? 
Like, right, that's, that's 

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really all that it comes down 
to. 

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00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:12,000
So I feel like that's enough of 
a preamble. 

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Yeah, yeah, yeah. 
That's a pretty good, pretty 

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00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:20,760
good preamble. 
So we've got our quarterback 

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volume efficiency and rushing 
and chart here. 

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And before we get into some of 
these numbers, I, I remember you

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kind of harping on or harping on
is like the wrong way to put it 

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00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:38,560
is emphasizing and the big 5 at 
quarterback. 

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And and I know in in kind of 
private conversation that you've

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suggested that you're thinking 
might change and you've probably

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taught touch on this in previous
podcasts on, on on other shows. 

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And what do you want to talk 
about how you're thinking may 

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have evolved there? 
Yeah, I so the the thing about 

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playoff basketball that you have
to remember I'm actually, I had 

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00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:08,240
this same conversation. 
So we're going to start with a 

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00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:11,440
broad topic conversation about 
playoff basketball and then 

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we're going to drill down into 
the quarterback question. 

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My favorite kind of answer is a 
really lengthy one that requires

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an explanation before I give it.
So I had someone who very early 

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in the playoff basketball cycle,
I said something to the effect 

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of taking Saquon one O 1 is kind
of suicide. 

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Like you really don't want to do
it. 

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00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:32,320
It sets you up to fail. 
You get boxed out. 

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This is back when the big 5 
quarterbacks were really, really

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strong concept. 
I I thought was very important. 

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The Eagles had worse playoff 
odds, lower by odds. 

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You know, this is a few games 
ago. 

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So they they weren't looking 
quite as strong. 

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Their power rankings were lower.
All of these factors making say 

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00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:52,240
Kwan a worse one O 1 pick than 
he is right now. 

146
00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:55,080
And so at the time I said 
something to the effect of, 

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yeah, you don't want to take 
sake on one-on-one. 

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00:08:56,760 --> 00:08:59,080
I think that's a mistake. 
You really want to wait till 

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like at least the third pick 
because then you can get some 

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00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:05,080
stuff coming back to you that 
makes that work. 

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00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:09,880
And that the person that I was 
talking to just mentioned that 

152
00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:14,000
today and said, oh, look at this
now leg up has Saquon back to 

153
00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:16,520
101. 
Like, oh, oh, and I it's like, 

154
00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:19,440
yeah, because the whole 
landscape for playoff basketball

155
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changes with every NFL game that
gets played every week. 

156
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We're basically resetting the 
meta on playoff basketball 

157
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because all of these 
probabilities change and playoff

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basketball is so much a 
probability driven and math 

159
00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:39,880
driven game and so much less 
about the actual NFL players 

160
00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:44,200
like the the individual players 
and what they will score in a 

161
00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:48,400
given week means the least in 
playoff basketball compared to 

162
00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:50,840
any other format. 
And the thing that means the 

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00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:54,680
most is, is this team going to 
be alive in that specific round 

164
00:09:54,680 --> 00:09:56,920
of the playoffs? 
And so because you have this 

165
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dynamic of the shifting 
probabilities with every single 

166
00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:03,040
week, and really as we get 
closer and closer to the end of 

167
00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:06,560
the season, you get the shifting
of the seeding, the actual 

168
00:10:06,560 --> 00:10:09,680
playoff seeds and who is going 
to face each other in round two 

169
00:10:09,680 --> 00:10:13,600
and round 3. 
That's, that's quite important 

170
00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:18,200
because you want to ideally keep
as much of your team alive as 

171
00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:20,560
long as possible. 
So you don't want them to play 

172
00:10:20,560 --> 00:10:22,400
each other in round one or round
two. 

173
00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:25,400
You'd prefer for teams from the 
same conference to only be able 

174
00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:28,320
to meet in the conference 
championship or at least meet 

175
00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:30,640
the majority of the time that 
they find each other in the 

176
00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:34,080
conference championship. 
So there's all of these 

177
00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:38,160
underlying factors that will 
shift the meta and shift the the

178
00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:42,240
value of players mostly based on
the team that they're on and 

179
00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:45,680
what happened to their team and 
their team's playoff standing in

180
00:10:45,680 --> 00:10:48,760
the prior week. 
And so now getting into the 

181
00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:52,600
quarterback conversation, 
previously the top five 

182
00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:56,960
quarterbacks, and that would be 
Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen

183
00:10:56,960 --> 00:11:01,080
Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Jared
Goff made-up such a high 

184
00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:03,840
percentage of the Super Bowl 
outcomes. 

185
00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:06,880
The, you know, the total number 
of Super Bowl matchups that were

186
00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:09,680
possible. 
Those five quarterbacks were in 

187
00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:14,000
such a large majority of them 
that it really, really made 

188
00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:17,840
sense to emphasize those players
because without one of those 

189
00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:21,000
quarterbacks, you were 
effectively forced into playing 

190
00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:23,720
for a much lower probability 
Super Bowl. 

191
00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,360
And that's, that's really the 
long and short of it why the Big

192
00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:31,160
5 was such a thing. 
Now it's actually a lot 

193
00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:34,000
different. 
We're, we're looking at a 

194
00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:38,800
smaller gap between the 4th and 
5th quarterbacks and their 

195
00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:44,120
probability of going to the 
Super Bowl and the, you know, 

196
00:11:44,560 --> 00:11:47,000
6th and 7th and even 8th 
quarterbacks. 

197
00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:51,680
So for example, and I guess this
would be a decent you can, you 

198
00:11:51,680 --> 00:11:54,640
can pull up the playoff odds 
chart here just 'cause I'm going

199
00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:56,240
to reference some stuff in it 
and it'll. 

200
00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:57,680
Probably. 
Visual. 

201
00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:01,600
Yeah, give me one second. 
Yeah, we're. 

202
00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,240
We're pulling an audible here. 
We're we're deviating from the 

203
00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:07,760
quarterback chart first. 
So present, sure, it's green. 

204
00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:14,880
There's a beautiful we're, we're
taking away the, the the 

205
00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:19,320
colorful chart and we're putting
in this beautiful, beautiful 

206
00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:24,280
table. 
Yes, multiple 2 shades of blue 

207
00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:29,080
and a shade of grey, which will 
surely be on the screen shortly 

208
00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:32,440
here. 
I I clicked share but then I 

209
00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:34,640
didn't. 
I never clicked screen. 

210
00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:38,440
So this table is over on 
legendary upside. 

211
00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:41,200
Any tier leg up subscriber can 
see it. 

212
00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:43,400
So you don't have to be a 
sidekick subscriber to see it. 

213
00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:46,880
These probabilities are baked 
into the Sidekick. 

214
00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:48,400
It's helping to power the 
decision. 

215
00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:51,360
Pat is gonna get this video 
demonetized on YouTube. 

216
00:12:52,680 --> 00:12:54,920
Yeah, we're giving away the milk
for free here. 

217
00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:59,240
But the thing that is really 
important is go ahead and sort 

218
00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:01,800
that conference championships, 
OK? 

219
00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:02,920
It looks like you have it 
sorted. 

220
00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:06,360
Yeah, yeah. 
I was looking at it myself while

221
00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:10,880
you're talking so. 
This 4th column here from the 

222
00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:14,560
left, this conf champ 
probability, that shows the 

223
00:13:14,560 --> 00:13:18,680
probability in our simulations 
that any of these teams actually

224
00:13:18,680 --> 00:13:20,680
makes it to the conference 
championship. 

225
00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:25,520
And so previously you had the 
top five occupying so much of 

226
00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:29,400
that probability. 
But now if you look beyond the 

227
00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:33,560
1st 4, where the big four are 
Detroit, Buffalo, KC and 

228
00:13:33,560 --> 00:13:37,200
Philadelphia, after that, 
there's kind of a log jam here 

229
00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:42,320
where you get Pittsburgh. 
Yeah, they're all, they're all 

230
00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:43,560
the same. 
Basically. 

231
00:13:43,560 --> 00:13:45,280
They're they're virtually 
identical. 

232
00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:48,800
Pittsburgh, Green Bay and 
Baltimore, it's anyone's game to

233
00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:51,240
make it the conference 
championship out of those three 

234
00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:53,960
teams. 
So what you're actually seeing 

235
00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:57,480
in the meta of playoff 
basketball right now is a gross 

236
00:13:57,480 --> 00:14:01,000
mispricing of Baltimore. 
It's it is egregious. 

237
00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:04,680
If you click Lamar Jackson and 
Derrick Henry at the 1-2 turn, 

238
00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,920
it's one of the worst things you
can possibly do. 

239
00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:11,640
It's not very different than 
clicking Jordan Love and Josh 

240
00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:14,760
Jacobs at the 1-2 turn or 
Russell Wilson and Najee Harris 

241
00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:16,320
at the 1-2 turn now. 
So. 

242
00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:23,720
Can I just interrupt slightly? 
So one thing when you when you 

243
00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:30,080
look at our charts, we show that
Lamar is, is the fantasy God 

244
00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:33,480
this year. 
He's super efficient in passing.

245
00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:37,480
He's got the rushing, his 
volley, his passing volume. 

246
00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:40,520
So not only is he rushing, he 
also has a high expected point 

247
00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:45,120
from passing. 
And so he will have, I think the

248
00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:49,880
highest projection of any 
quarterback week to week. 

249
00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:56,520
I guess the the the Josh Allen 
just put up the the highest 

250
00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:59,920
amount of any quarterback, but 
he's also had some pretty low 

251
00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:05,240
scoring games as well. 
But the, I, I guess I think I 

252
00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:09,880
know the answer to this, which 
is so I think people are pricing

253
00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:13,680
in that high projection and 
probably they're probably 

254
00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:17,720
overrating the ELO, the team 
strength a little bit and then 

255
00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:21,120
putting a lot of weight on that 
high projection. 

256
00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:26,200
But I, and I think you touched 
on this last week where it 

257
00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:29,720
actually it doesn't matter, it 
almost doesn't matter how high 

258
00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:34,200
the projection is if he doesn't 
advance, maybe he's not in the 

259
00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:37,480
conference championship. 
It's it his projected points to 

260
00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:39,280
0. 
He projects for zero in the 

261
00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:41,640
conference championship. 
And yeah, to the the point about

262
00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:46,600
the ELO, the relative strength 
of the team, the Packers are 

263
00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:48,720
basically neck and neck with the
Ravens. 

264
00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:50,520
They they have the same relative
strength. 

265
00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:54,000
They're the 4th and 5th 
strongest teams in the league. 

266
00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:56,400
And then the Steelers are right 
on their tail. 

267
00:15:56,560 --> 00:15:58,280
The Steelers are right behind 
the Raven. 

268
00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:01,520
So it's it's congruous. 
This logjam of these 

269
00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:05,080
probabilities isn't just because
of their records and kind of how

270
00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:08,720
their lot has fallen based on 
the way the seasons played out 

271
00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:10,440
and where their seating is going
to be. 

272
00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:15,600
It's also because these teams 
are similar in their strength. 

273
00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:19,640
And yes, Lamar Jackson and 
Derrick Henry are both the two 

274
00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:23,360
premium scorers at their 
position compared to the the 

275
00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:26,760
other players in this same tier 
of conference championship 

276
00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:29,480
probability. 
But that's all that it should 

277
00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:31,400
be. 
It should be a tiebreaker within

278
00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:34,520
the tier. 
And so of the Steelers, Packers 

279
00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:37,800
and Ravens, yes, Lamar Jackson 
should be the first quarterback.

280
00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:39,640
Derrick Henry should be the 
first quarterback. 

281
00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:41,800
But you know what teams are 
better than those? 

282
00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:44,040
The Eagles, the Bills and the 
Lions. 

283
00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:48,520
And I don't care that James Cook
scores fewer fantasy points than

284
00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:51,920
Derrick Henry, you know, in a in
a median projection. 

285
00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:53,880
I don't. 
I don't care that, you know, 

286
00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,480
David Montgomery scores fewer 
fantasy points than Derrick 

287
00:16:56,480 --> 00:17:00,200
Henry in a median projection. 
Those guys make the Super Bowl 

288
00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:03,680
and make the conference 
championship so much more often.

289
00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:07,480
And you might look at it and 
say, oh, well, 30% to 46%, 

290
00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:08,760
that's not that big a 
difference. 

291
00:17:09,319 --> 00:17:11,280
I mean it's, it's an enormous 
difference. 

292
00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:14,760
Like when you're thinking of it 
in a relative sense, like the 

293
00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:20,599
jump from 30% to 45% is a 50% 
increase, like it's enormous. 

294
00:17:20,599 --> 00:17:23,280
And so that and. 
In terms of expected value, it's

295
00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:24,119
a. 
It's a big. 

296
00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:25,680
It's a big difference. 
Correct. 

297
00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:28,520
And that's why I'm using the 
relative increase there because 

298
00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:31,400
that's more along the lines of 
like how you would be getting at

299
00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:35,360
an expected value calculation is
like relative change in the 

300
00:17:35,360 --> 00:17:37,160
conference championship 
probabilities. 

301
00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:41,520
And so to put a bow on it and go
all the way back to your initial

302
00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:45,160
question of has my opinion on 
the Big 5 quarterbacks changed? 

303
00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:48,760
The answer is yes. 
And so there's two ways. 

304
00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:54,280
I, I think that you could have 
two very strong debates for how 

305
00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:57,400
to play this now. 
And it's that there's a big four

306
00:17:57,760 --> 00:18:00,520
and it's that it's Detroit, 
Buffalo, KC and Philly. 

307
00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:05,160
And those BIG4 quarterbacks are 
super important or it's that 

308
00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:08,320
there are 7 viable quarterbacks,
right? 

309
00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:11,960
I mean, even I, I think 
Minnesota you even could say. 

310
00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:15,880
I was actually about to bring 
them up, they look insane. 

311
00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:19,960
Yeah, they do. 
Did you see the stat that of the

312
00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:23,240
NFC North teams the the top 
three, not including the Bears, 

313
00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:28,680
they've only lost to each other.
That's or it might it. 

314
00:18:29,120 --> 00:18:30,880
Might be they've only sorry 
they've I think they've only 

315
00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:33,400
lost three games, not to each 
other. 

316
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,600
But, but let's put, let's put it
another way. 

317
00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:41,600
So based on based on ELO, based 
on, on a projection of, of team 

318
00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:45,360
strength, the Ravens are 29% to 
go to the conference 

319
00:18:45,360 --> 00:18:49,200
championship and you have to 
take their quarterback and, and 

320
00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:53,480
running back in the 1-2 turn. 
The Vikings are 23%. 

321
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:58,760
So like what's that 90% of their
of their probability, something 

322
00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:01,920
like that 80%. 
So like much, much, very, very 

323
00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:06,480
close. 
And then and Sam Darnold, 

324
00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:11,600
obviously he has his bad games, 
but he just put up 40 points. 

325
00:19:12,120 --> 00:19:15,120
Yeah. 
And so the projection for Sam 

326
00:19:15,120 --> 00:19:17,120
Darnold is actually very, very 
good. 

327
00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:23,040
And you can you can get, you can
very, very easily get the entire

328
00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:27,920
team stack with probably I 
haven't known many of these 

329
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:31,160
drafts or any of these drafts. 
So I'm just a pundit, I guess, 

330
00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,560
but I imagine that you can take,
you can basically take a full on

331
00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:40,160
Vikings sack uncontested and 
then if the if the Vikings make 

332
00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:44,840
the Super Bowl, you win. 
Yes, and it would be and people.

333
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,800
This is the other thing that I 
think is really, really 

334
00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:54,040
fascinating because I, you know,
being the guy who is like made 

335
00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:55,760
his whole thing playoff 
basketball. 

336
00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:59,120
Lots of people talk to me about 
playoff basketball every day. 

337
00:19:59,120 --> 00:20:01,920
So I'm getting to hear from 
other people and hear their 

338
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:04,880
opinions on this and hear where 
they think that we might be 

339
00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:07,560
wrong and our, you know, our 
projections for these 

340
00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:10,920
probabilities of these certain 
events or which teams they like 

341
00:20:11,120 --> 00:20:13,960
and all of this stuff. 
And one thing that's common 

342
00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:17,640
among almost everyone that I 
talk to and, and a lot of these 

343
00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:20,360
people are people that I think 
are extremely sharp. 

344
00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:22,480
You know, they might be really 
good basketball players. 

345
00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:25,000
They might be really, really 
good DFS players. 

346
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:28,960
Like people absolutely crushing 
DFS, like guys that I would say 

347
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:33,320
are much smarter than myself. 
But everyone that I talk to has 

348
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:37,480
the same glitch in their brain. 
And it's a bug that that I have 

349
00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:41,280
talked about before, but it's 
that the human brain has this 

350
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:45,560
weird way of seeing a low 
probability outcome and saying, 

351
00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:47,920
oh, that actually happened 0% of
the time. 

352
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:50,440
Yeah, Seattle making the 
conference championship. 

353
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,600
Yeah, I see that you guys have 
that happening 17% of the time. 

354
00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:55,560
It actually happened 0% of the 
time. 

355
00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,320
And you're not even. 
It's not like you're sitting 

356
00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:01,840
there and thinking through this 
and maniacally plotting about 

357
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:05,640
how like it's wrong. 
It's just a natural thing that 

358
00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:06,920
your. 
Brand is assuming. 

359
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:10,600
This to to skip over it's I. 
I trust, I trust the projections

360
00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:14,080
here. 
I have the same reaction of like

361
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:20,920
that looks like a bug, but I 
mean the map is the map. 

362
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:24,880
Yeah, and I've, I promise I've 
stepped through each of these 

363
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:28,280
Sims to make sure that hey, 
we've got, let me make sure that

364
00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:30,480
all the seedings correct, let me
make sure all the tiebreaker 

365
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:32,920
logic is correct, all all of 
this stuff. 

366
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:34,080
So who? 
Who are the? 

367
00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:36,040
Who are Seattle likely? 
Are they? 

368
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:40,520
Are they? 
What seed are they projected 

369
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:41,920
for? 
They would they would be the 

370
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:45,080
four seed because they get there
from winning their division. 

371
00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:48,040
OK, so they're the four seed and
who's who do you think? 

372
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:52,400
Who's the likely five seed? 
The likely five seed would 

373
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:56,880
probably be Minnesota then. 
I guess that's the other way. 

374
00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:03,320
We can we can look at these we, 
we. 

375
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:07,080
So who has who's the most likely
to play Seattle in the oh, oh, 

376
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:09,920
that's in the conference 
championship, so never mind. 

377
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:14,080
Yeah, never mind. 
We we don't have that just 

378
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:17,160
because the way that all of 
these odds work is everything 

379
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:19,600
flows through to the conference 
championship. 

380
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:24,560
So rather than giving if we 
included more, I mean this table

381
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:28,520
is already a lot, you know. 
So if we included more info on 

382
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:31,600
it like and here's the one seed 
probability, here's the two seed

383
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:33,720
probability. 
And all this the the only thing 

384
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:36,880
I'm who so but we take their 
their likely opponent is the 

385
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,920
Vikings because yeah. 
That's that's one of the. 

386
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:43,160
Packers will win their. 
It could also be the Packers. 

387
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:46,320
It's the Packers or the Vikings,
So those are the two likely 

388
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:48,160
opponents. 
Yeah. 

389
00:22:48,360 --> 00:22:51,920
And like, why can't they beat? 
Why can't they beat either of 

390
00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:54,560
those teams? 
Yeah, no, they they certainly 

391
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,160
can 11. 
That's a really interesting one 

392
00:22:57,160 --> 00:23:00,360
that made Pat be like, I need 
you to double check The Sims. 

393
00:23:00,360 --> 00:23:05,280
Like this seems really wrong. 
Is the Commanders. 

394
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:10,880
Their probability of facing the 
Lions when the Commanders make 

395
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,080
the conference championship is 
quite high. 

396
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:16,720
I wanna say that they're the 13 
percent or 17%. 

397
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,040
Scroll up to the top. 
So I can, so that's Green Bay. 

398
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:21,840
Is 29 the first one? 
Okay, so they're 20 percent, 

399
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:25,520
20%. 
So that means when Washington 

400
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,840
makes the conference 
championship, 20% of the time 

401
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:32,080
they face Detroit, which you 
might be thinking in your head, 

402
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,840
how does that work out? 
Detroit's the one seed, 

403
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,600
Washington's very likely the 
seven seed. 

404
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,640
How do they, how do they see 
them 20% of the time in the 

405
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,120
conference championship? 
They meet way before that. 

406
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:48,080
And the way that it happens is 
Detroit is the one seed 73% of 

407
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:52,200
the time, not 100% of the time, 
right and Washington is the 

408
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:56,360
seventh seed less than 100% of 
the time, right? 

409
00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:00,040
And also you have upsets that 
happen, right? 

410
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:03,840
Like upsets can happen. 
And so when Washington makes it 

411
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:07,920
as the six seed, say, or I don't
even know if they can make it as

412
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:10,040
the five seed, there's probably 
some very low probability 

413
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:11,520
outcome. 
They can make it as the five 

414
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:15,240
seed, but you get Washington as 
the six seed or something. 

415
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:18,520
Now all of a sudden you get a 
seven seed upset. 

416
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:21,280
Detroit faces the seven seed. 
Washington goes on to the next 

417
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:22,480
round. 
They win in round two. 

418
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:24,440
And all of a sudden, Detroit and
Washington, you're playing each 

419
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:26,600
other there, right? 
Or Detroit doesn't get the one 

420
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:28,920
seed Washington. 
Washington does get the seven. 

421
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,800
Washington upsets twice and 
meets Detroit in the conference 

422
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:34,600
championship. 
So you get these low probability

423
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:38,440
events that there are multiple 
different paths for this thing 

424
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:41,560
to happen and they all sum up to
this number. 

425
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:44,920
That seems way too large for our
puny human brains. 

426
00:24:45,360 --> 00:24:48,560
But that is why we use 
simulations, because we can 

427
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:52,440
account for lots and lots and 
lots of different futures and we

428
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:56,160
can sum up all of those outcomes
and then get the actual 

429
00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:59,920
probability as long as we have 
good inputs here, so. 

430
00:25:02,120 --> 00:25:07,400
And I guess the, the other thing
about this is so these are Sims 

431
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,600
of, of, of using the current 
data. 

432
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:16,800
And I have to imagine if and 
when and the commanders get 

433
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:20,880
locked in as a seventh seed, the
lions get locked in as a one 

434
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:26,160
seed, this goes to 0. 
So like this is true right now 

435
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:32,520
in this window in time. 
And, and I, I mean, who knows if

436
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:34,920
they become the sixth seed, then
then that probability goes up. 

437
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:40,160
And whatever how, how it goes. 
But it is important to know that

438
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:44,040
it's to note that it's very 
dynamic that like just because 

439
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:47,280
we're saying that that this week
on this particular podcast 

440
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:51,120
doesn't mean that somebody's 
listening on on on Wednesday 

441
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:53,760
should still be doing this, this
time next week. 

442
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,880
Yeah, absolutely. 
By this time next week, 

443
00:25:56,880 --> 00:26:00,280
everything's gonna have changed.
And that's one of the things I 

444
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,040
like the best about playoff 
basketball. 

445
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:07,320
The meta changes on an instant 
and it's another reason why I 

446
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:10,480
think philosophically you really
should spread out your entries 

447
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:14,840
for playoff basketball because 
you just, you really have no way

448
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:18,520
of being able to identify what 
you think is a unique combo and 

449
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:22,320
won't be attainable later or 
what you think is the huge edge 

450
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:26,280
that you have to draft all 150 
of your teams right now before 

451
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:30,200
that edge goes away. 
So much can change and it's so 

452
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:33,840
chaotic that I really, really 
think that you want to spread 

453
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,120
out your entries. 
And really I would say the best 

454
00:26:36,120 --> 00:26:39,480
argument for spreading out your 
entries is that there are 

455
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:43,400
outcomes where the guys that are
the, you know, round one advance

456
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:46,680
rate monsters are coming from 
the Bucks or they're coming from

457
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:50,160
the Seahawks, or they come from 
the Rams or, Oh my gosh, the 

458
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:54,680
Bengals with their 1.3% playoff 
probability somehow made it and 

459
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:56,040
it comes from the Bengals, 
right? 

460
00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:59,920
So you get these very these 
things that are very hard to 

461
00:26:59,920 --> 00:27:03,680
predict on teams that are very 
unlikely to go far in the 

462
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:06,800
playoffs. 
But later in the draft cycle, 

463
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:10,160
when you know what the seating 
is and you know which teams are 

464
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:14,120
locked into the playoffs, you 
can tell yourself I can see a 

465
00:27:14,120 --> 00:27:17,680
chance where the Rams upset 
whoever it is they play in round

466
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:19,360
one. 
So I'll throw. 

467
00:27:19,360 --> 00:27:22,640
Puka and Kyron in, as you know, 
round one advance rate pieces 

468
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,040
and if they can steal a game 
then great. 

469
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:27,400
I've got a really strong team 
heading into Round 2. 

470
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:33,160
And so just delaying some of 
your entries for as we get more 

471
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,960
information about the brackets 
and the seating I think is 

472
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,680
really sharp. 
Otherwise, you're just not going

473
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:43,920
to draft any of these really 
fringe teams that could be the 

474
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:47,520
skeleton key to help you 
advancing some of these really 

475
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:51,120
powerful bye week teams. 
And, and that's something that I

476
00:27:51,120 --> 00:27:54,120
think is a pretty important 
concept that a lot of people 

477
00:27:54,120 --> 00:27:58,040
overlook. 
Yeah, makes sense for sure. 

478
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:00,120
And, and and bringing it back 
to. 

479
00:28:00,120 --> 00:28:02,240
I'm going to bring it back to. 
Yeah, let's go back to 

480
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:06,280
quarterbacks. 
Here and our charts and that 

481
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:11,640
takes a couple of of clicks here
while I do that. 

482
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:15,800
But I mean the two, the two 
things that send out to me at 

483
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:23,400
the most are so #2 entry in our 
in our what you call it adjusted

484
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:27,920
yards per attempt. 
And if you're only looking at 

485
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:32,760
the high probability playoff at 
quarterbacks is Russell Wilson 

486
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:36,280
and Sam Darnold and those guys 
are pretty much free for 

487
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:39,200
quarterbacks. 
They have reasonable conference 

488
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:41,320
championship odds. 
They have really high 

489
00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:44,720
efficiency. 
I I feel better best and Arnold 

490
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:51,760
for sure. 
And because just because he, he,

491
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:55,960
he, he's an over larger sample, 
my, my lizard brain makes it 

492
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,880
easier for me, easier for me to 
believe that he can do that with

493
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:03,200
Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison
and Hawkinson and and and Aaron 

494
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:09,160
Jones. 
And but that's kind of what when

495
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:12,640
I look at my tables here of our 
chart, that's what stands at me 

496
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:16,880
strongly. 
Yeah, I mean, Darnold is in a 

497
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:19,560
really favorable place on the 
chart too, right? 

498
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:22,600
He's got high expected fancy 
points from passing, doing it 

499
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:26,240
efficiently. 
He's got a little bit of rushing

500
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:29,480
in him. 
He's he's very like statuesque 

501
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:31,160
in the pocket. 
Like he stands in there for a 

502
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:33,960
long time, has a long time to 
throw, but that's what's helping

503
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:35,600
him drive the ball down field 
too. 

504
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:38,560
And so you get these big spike 
weeks from him and these big 

505
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:42,800
explosion plays. 
And so, yeah, Darnold is one 

506
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:44,680
that I think is really, really 
interesting. 

507
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:48,520
I I think that if you're wanting
to play particularly 

508
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:52,720
aggressively in playoff 
basketball, you certainly could 

509
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:57,760
be willing to fade the quote UN 
quote Big 5 quarterbacks and not

510
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:01,040
like intentionally fade them, 
but just say, Hey, I'm willing 

511
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:04,400
to try and push these 
quarterbacks and take some 

512
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:07,920
really high value skill position
players in the hopes that one of

513
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:09,440
the big quarterbacks falls to 
me. 

514
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:13,320
And if they don't, I feel pretty
good about then just slamming 

515
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:15,840
Vikings for the rest of the, you
know, first two rounds. 

516
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,160
I just grabbed two of the best 
skill position players with 

517
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:19,960
really high Super Bowl 
probability. 

518
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:23,880
And if I don't get a quarterback
that pairs nicely with them, 

519
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:27,760
then I pivot. 
And in the third round, I take 

520
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:29,600
Justin Jefferson. 
Fourth round, I take Aaron 

521
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:31,280
Jones. 
And like, that's early. 

522
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:34,160
Like you don't have to take 
Justin Jefferson and the 3rd and

523
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:36,360
Aaron Jones and the fourth. 
You can usually get those guys 

524
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,080
in the 4th and 5th, sometimes 
even the 5th and 6th. 

525
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,320
And so you can just kind of 
stake your claim on the Vikings 

526
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:45,080
early and just be like, all 
right, I'm going to take 6 

527
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:48,680
Vikings and I got 2 incredible 
picks in the 1st 2 rounds. 

528
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:51,960
I take 6 Vikings. 
I close it out with two, you 

529
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:54,640
know, random dart throws, maybe 
a couple bills dart throws or 

530
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:56,800
something or chiefs dart throws 
because those are high Super 

531
00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,800
Bowl probability teams and, and 
call it a day. 

532
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:03,680
So I I do like I. 
Mean they have a 6% and 

533
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:06,520
probability of winning the Super
Bowl. 

534
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:10,600
So I'm I'm going to extrapolate 
that of 12% and, and it works. 

535
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:14,520
It might works out with 24% of 
conference championship, but 

536
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:19,040
like that feels really, really 
high to be able to easily get 

537
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:23,600
the entire team and they just 
play every round and it's a 

538
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:25,560
really fun offense. 
IT projects really high. 

539
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:27,960
They'll be one of the highest 
total games in the playoffs 

540
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:31,720
every week. 
That that, that's screams 

541
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:34,720
inefficiency. 
Yeah, it definitely is. 

542
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:38,000
The Vikings are definitely one 
of the teams I really like to 

543
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:41,800
attack. 
I want to talk about we we 

544
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,480
talked about some well, you 
know, teams that were priced 

545
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:49,600
very favorably last time. 
I want to talk about how as we 

546
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:53,080
get closer and closer to the end
of the season, we begin to get 

547
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:57,120
clarity on some of these really,
really gross teams where the 

548
00:31:57,120 --> 00:32:00,120
Vikings were talking about they 
could actually win the Super or 

549
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,320
not win the Super Bowl. 
Get to the Super Bowl, right? 

550
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:04,560
Right. 
No, they could 6%. 

551
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:07,720
They could win the Super. 
Bowl 6% is like one in 20. 

552
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:11,200
I mean, think back to the year 
where it was when it was Rams. 

553
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,840
I would. 
Kill for those BBT odds. 

554
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:16,880
Yeah, I win the BBT. 
It's insane. 

555
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:19,600
Yeah, I'll take it. 
Yeah, but I mean, think back to 

556
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:21,960
the year that was Rams and 
Bengals, right? 

557
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:24,040
No one would have seen that 
coming. 

558
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,840
Those teams make the Super Bowl,
Rams end up winning it. 

559
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:29,520
So yes, I'm I'm with you on the 
Vikings. 

560
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:33,120
The ones I want to kind of pivot
to here are I want to talk about

561
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:37,320
the grocer guys that we think 
are like, oh boy, sure, maybe 

562
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:40,560
technically they could make the 
Super Bowl, but like more 

563
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:43,960
theoretical sense, you know, so 
like the ones that I think are 

564
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:48,080
pretty interesting now are Baker
Mayfield and Bo Nicks. 

565
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:52,880
And so Baker similar area of the
chart as Sam Darnold. 

566
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:54,960
You can see him here. 
They're you know, they're both 

567
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:57,480
right about 16 expected fantasy 
points from passing. 

568
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:02,760
Baker is a little bit more dink 
and dunk than Sam Darnold in 

569
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:07,800
that a a big reason for that is 
his time to throw is very, very 

570
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:09,440
quick. 
Baker's getting the ball out 

571
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:13,680
fast and Darnold is not he's 
he's kind of the polar opposite 

572
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:16,880
where he's standing in and just 
trying to Chuck it down field. 

573
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:21,600
So that's to explain part of the
suggested yards per attempt, 

574
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:25,240
right? 
But Baker has been nothing short

575
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:29,040
of great this season. 
Like I, I, I don't think it's a 

576
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,920
stretch to say Baker Mayfield is
one of the 10 best quarterbacks 

577
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:35,400
in the NFL right now. 
Like, if you don't like it, you 

578
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,560
probably just weren't watching 
enough Baker Mayfield this year.

579
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:41,800
Like, 'cause the guy looks great
when you watch him and all of 

580
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:44,160
his advanced metrics are pretty 
great this season. 

581
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:47,400
So I, he's, he's one that I 
really like. 

582
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:51,240
And the Bucks are now high 
enough probability of getting 

583
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:54,600
into the, the playoffs that I 
think that they're on the menu 

584
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:56,040
for me. 
I'd begun drafting them. 

585
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:58,800
They're they're about 78% to 
make the playoffs. 

586
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:03,240
To me, that's kind of the line. 
70% is like anything lower than 

587
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:05,040
that, I'm not really willing to 
mess with it. 

588
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:08,120
So Seattle is still just barely 
out for me. 

589
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:11,199
They're at 68%. 
And I'm fine to wait a little 

590
00:34:11,199 --> 00:34:15,199
bit on that because the Rams 
game Thursday night will 

591
00:34:15,199 --> 00:34:18,600
actually enlighten us a lot 
about Seattle's probability 

592
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:21,560
since it's a interdivisional 
game with Rams 49ers. 

593
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:24,639
But yeah, Baker is a really 
interesting one. 

594
00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:27,280
The other one that is pretty 
interesting. 

595
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:34,960
Let me ask, I guess the the 
thing with Baker is that his his

596
00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:37,960
efficiency is fine. 
It's lower than these other 

597
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:39,400
guys. 
It's but it's fine. 

598
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:41,840
His projection is actually 
pretty good. 

599
00:34:42,199 --> 00:34:46,280
It's similar to the Sam Darnold 
in terms of like, sorry, his 

600
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:49,040
volume is expected points from 
volume. 

601
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:52,239
His rushing is similar. 
So like you're talking about 

602
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:57,160
very similar projection, yeah, 
projected volume with just 

603
00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:00,240
slightly less efficiency, just 
slightly. 

604
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:06,280
And but then the the question 
that comes to me is, so I know 

605
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:11,280
what we kind of mentioned like I
think and Baker Mayfield is 

606
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:15,720
probably projects to somebody 
that even, and even when it 

607
00:35:15,720 --> 00:35:18,640
they're 100%, they become 100% 
to make the playoffs. 

608
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,360
And we know, we know who they're
playing and all that kind of 

609
00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:25,560
stuff at the end, they're not 
getting any more expensive. 

610
00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:29,280
Correct, correct. 
And so I, I guess the, the, 

611
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:33,720
that, that, that does lead me to
believe that maybe like you said

612
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:37,920
on the menu, but a low frequency
option. 

613
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:39,080
This. 
Yeah, this. 

614
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:43,920
One is sort of sickos. 
So what's happening now is you 

615
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:47,760
you end up in circumstances 
where this is especially true if

616
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:49,880
you're drafting a lot of by 
heavy teams. 

617
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:53,240
If you're drafting a lot of 
chiefs, drafting a lot of Lions,

618
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:58,600
you'll run into a situation near
the end of drafts where you just

619
00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:01,920
simply do not have enough 
firepower to advance the team 

620
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:05,760
out around one for with by using
teams that have high 

621
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:07,920
probabilities of making the 
conference championship. 

622
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:13,360
And so you're forced into these 
grosser teams where you're 

623
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:16,840
playing for, hey, I need the 
Bucks to make the playoffs. 

624
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:21,520
And when they do, it advances 
this team that has, you know, 

625
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:25,920
five players live for Lions 
chief Super Bowl, which is a 

626
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:28,360
pretty good Super Bowl to have a
piece of right? 

627
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:33,000
And so that's when you typically
are going to use teams like the 

628
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:34,280
Bucks. 
The other one I was going to 

629
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:38,320
mention is the Broncos. 
They're both similar probability

630
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:42,520
Broncos 73%, Bucks 78% to make 
the playoffs. 

631
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:47,520
Now, the nice thing about the 
Bucks is there's actually a good

632
00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:50,560
number of viable fantasy pieces 
there. 

633
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:54,000
You certainly are happy to take 
Baker as AQB to bridge the gap 

634
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:55,840
from Week 1. 
If you got to buy quarterback, 

635
00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:58,640
you're happy to take both 
running backs, to be perfectly 

636
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:02,520
honest, like Bucky. 
If Bucky were fully healthy, it 

637
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:04,960
would be so, so clearly Bucky to
me. 

638
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:07,640
But we'll get into Bucky and 
Rashad White later when we talk 

639
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:09,720
about running backs. 
But I think they're both viable.

640
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:13,720
Obviously Mike Evans is viable. 
I don't think you're doing 

641
00:37:13,720 --> 00:37:17,040
anyone outside of those three 
skill position players though on

642
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:19,600
the box like I'm, I'm just not 
going to do AK dot and I'm not 

643
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:22,560
going to do a Jalen McMillan. 
It just gets to be too thin and 

644
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:24,680
this there's not really a reason
to do that. 

645
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:29,960
The the one knock on Denver is 
they really only have one skill 

646
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:32,280
position player and that's 
Cortland Sutton. 

647
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:36,280
Like, you know, we'll we'll get 
into their skill position 

648
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:38,520
players a little later when we 
talk about wide receiver. 

649
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:43,200
But that's the one the one 
caveat with Denver. 

650
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:48,040
So anyway, and then you kind of 
run into that with the Chargers 

651
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:50,240
as well. 
The Chargers, it's just Lad 

652
00:37:50,240 --> 00:37:52,880
Mcconkey and Justin Herbert. 
Like, do you really want to 

653
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:55,760
draft JK Dobbins, who's maybe a 
week off the IR? 

654
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:57,400
And I think we talked about this
last week. 

655
00:37:57,400 --> 00:38:00,240
So we don't need to rehash it. 
But anyway, those are kind of 

656
00:38:00,240 --> 00:38:05,000
the vomit quarterbacks that I'm 
into near the end of drafts. 

657
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:08,440
I did have one more quarterback 
question for you, Draco, before 

658
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:10,040
we move on. 
OK. 

659
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:14,320
And that's if you look at where 
Patrick Mahomes is on the chart.

660
00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:18,200
Oh God. 
He's he's passing more that 

661
00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:20,960
expected fantasy points from 
passing is kind of ticked up 

662
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:24,960
throughout the season and he's 
he's kind of in the spot on the 

663
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:28,080
chart where we talk about guys 
potentially being positive 

664
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:33,120
regression candidates. 
So I mean, the story feels a 

665
00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:36,400
little bit So what we're. 
Saying is he's got volume, he's 

666
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,240
got volume there, but it's not 
efficient. 

667
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:44,240
And would it surprise you if the
Chiefs on their way to their 

668
00:38:44,240 --> 00:38:46,880
third consecutive Super Bowl run
somehow? 

669
00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:49,480
Started playing good. 
Have Patrick Mahomes start to 

670
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,760
click and this guy suddenly I'm 
not even. 

671
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:55,160
He doesn't have to do a lot. 
What if he's as efficient as 

672
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:57,400
Baker Mayfield? 
What if he's as efficient as 

673
00:38:57,400 --> 00:38:59,680
Tuba? 
You know, like that's all I'm 

674
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:01,520
saying. 
Yeah. 

675
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:06,680
I mean, if we, if we, I'm not 
going to pull it back up, but if

676
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:10,800
we look at your at your E 
loading, they're 46% to make the

677
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:16,680
conference championship and just
if you make it like there's only

678
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:19,680
three other quarterbacks that 
are even in playing. 

679
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:23,000
So like, you're a top four 
quarterback, yeah. 

680
00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:27,760
Seems very good. 
And then, yeah, so you've got 

681
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:31,200
the volume there and you just, 
you just need something to 

682
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:33,000
click. 
You need them to fucking figure 

683
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:38,760
out and bring like bring back 
robotic a robotic knee for Rashi

684
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:46,840
Rice or like something you need 
you need somebody to emerge but 

685
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:49,480
before so certainly, yeah, 
certainly possible. 

686
00:39:50,720 --> 00:39:52,240
Yeah. 
All right, let's move on to 

687
00:39:52,240 --> 00:39:54,120
running backs. 
We spent a lot of time here 

688
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:57,400
between these first few charts, 
but we'll we'll get to cruising 

689
00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:59,600
here, start talking about some 
running backs. 

690
00:40:01,280 --> 00:40:03,720
Right, Yeah. 
We, we kind of we kind of talk 

691
00:40:03,720 --> 00:40:07,640
to team stuff and the 
quarterbacks in, in one Yeah. 

692
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:14,560
And now we now we kind of have 
the the table set on the team 

693
00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:16,840
stuff. 
So we've got running back snaps 

694
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:20,600
and usage. 
I almost, I hope you're OK with,

695
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:24,760
I almost don't want to talk 
about the, the, the, the 

696
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:27,240
expected and the finest points 
over expected stuff. 

697
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:30,880
I almost think that we just 
wanna talk about who's playing 

698
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:34,200
for the good teams and we can 
mention efficiency and stuff 

699
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:36,200
like that. 
Yeah, yeah. 

700
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:40,640
I had just a couple notes here. 
I mean, this one is pretty 

701
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:42,520
quick. 
We probably should talk about it

702
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:47,720
though, is Chuba Hubbard this 
you want to you want like 99th 

703
00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:50,720
percentile season outcomes for a
player. 

704
00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:52,960
This is what it looks like for 
Chuba Hubbard. 

705
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:56,640
Like not only does the guy play 
fantastic, which full credit to 

706
00:40:56,640 --> 00:41:00,560
him for playing so well for the 
whole season right, but he also 

707
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:04,640
gets the second round rookie 
running back who you know by all

708
00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:07,440
accounts was a fantastic 
prospect Guy looked great in 

709
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:10,600
college. 
You know, the only only you 

710
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:13,720
know, staying on his resume is 
the fact that he tore his ACL 

711
00:41:13,720 --> 00:41:15,680
late last year. 
So he's going to be, you know, 

712
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:20,000
slowly worked back. 
And Chuba not only plays 

713
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:25,440
incredible, but then has his his
biggest competition get such a 

714
00:41:25,520 --> 00:41:29,040
slow start to the season to 
where he's not even taking snaps

715
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:33,280
really until like week 13. 
And then the guy goes down with 

716
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:37,320
non contact ACL injury to the 
same knee in week 14. 

717
00:41:38,240 --> 00:41:41,800
I mean, and Miles Sanders is an 
IOR, yeah. 

718
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:46,000
And Bryce Young is playing well.
Like that's the big thing of 

719
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:48,720
like, people were really, really
worried about that offense in 

720
00:41:48,720 --> 00:41:52,080
general, and now it's very 
functional. 

721
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:56,440
Yeah. 
I've got 2 tuba teams in the 

722
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:59,560
fantasy playoffs and super super
pumped about those. 

723
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:06,600
Yeah, yeah, the tuba is one that
you have to be really happy to 

724
00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:10,280
see on your teams right now. 
Don't think we need to do any 

725
00:42:10,280 --> 00:42:13,320
more detailed analysis on it. 
He's going to be the workhorse 

726
00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:15,560
he's been the whole season. 
Like, congratulations, you're 

727
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:20,400
super happy if you see him. 
The other ones that I wanted to 

728
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:22,840
talk about with respect to this 
chart, just because it's helpful

729
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:24,280
to be able to see their 
workload. 

730
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:27,760
It's the revenge of the slappy 
Draco. 

731
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:31,960
We talked about how we had this 
late season surge to make our 

732
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:37,840
best fall advance rates actually
be above expectation on FFPC. 

733
00:42:39,040 --> 00:42:42,920
But the all the slappy 0RB 
running backs got there and 

734
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:45,560
they've gotten there. 
Bigley, Chase Brown. 

735
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:50,480
I mean, you want to talk bell 
cow like is there a bigger bell 

736
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:52,920
cow in the NFL than Chase Brown 
right now? 

737
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:55,240
Like I I actually don't think 
there is. 

738
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:01,120
Well, our chart shows that there
is. 

739
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:06,880
I mean, a lot of those guys are 
not getting useful touches 

740
00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:10,600
though, right, compared to like 
a lot of it is run block or pass

741
00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:14,360
block over Chase Brown. 
But but yes, like well, so. 

742
00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:19,200
They if you he's probably his 
targets prior to run is probably

743
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:21,360
a lot higher than those guys. 
Right. 

744
00:43:21,360 --> 00:43:23,560
Yeah. 
Is is what you're saying. 

745
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:29,400
And so let me let me look up 
expected points per game. 

746
00:43:29,560 --> 00:43:33,600
I'm just going to do no, that's 
not that one. 

747
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:36,480
Yeah, I mean it. 
Also, if you just want to jump 

748
00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:39,520
ahead to the expected points per
game chart, we should be able to

749
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:41,720
see it over the last four weeks 
for Chase Brown. 

750
00:43:42,040 --> 00:43:45,080
Well, that doesn't happen. 
So Chase Brown over the last 

751
00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:49,800
five weeks, he he actually does 
top the league in in expected 

752
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:51,840
points. 
Yeah. 

753
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:58,520
So he's got a 22.2 expected 
points a game, 11 from rushing, 

754
00:43:58,720 --> 00:44:04,080
11 from receiving. 
Oh my God. 

755
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:07,400
That that's that's the double, 
double legendary season. 

756
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:11,000
That's a legendary Yeah. 
Chase Brown is literally he 

757
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:14,760
might finish the season as with 
a legendary running back 

758
00:44:14,760 --> 00:44:16,440
profile. 
Obviously didn't do it for the 

759
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:21,080
entire season. 
But like his end of year stretch

760
00:44:21,720 --> 00:44:28,320
might fit that. 
Man, I mean that's there like if

761
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:32,880
you if you asked me if I would 
rather have Chase Brown or 

762
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:36,840
Saquon Barkley on my fantasy 
teams in the fantasy playoffs 

763
00:44:37,600 --> 00:44:42,160
because Saquon Barkley is like 
50% owned, I think the answer is

764
00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:44,320
Chase Brown. 
If they were equal ownership, I 

765
00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:46,320
do think the answer is Saquon 
Barkley. 

766
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:53,000
I'm not that big of a Saquon 
denier but I mean like 11. 

767
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:55,680
Expect the double. 
Double on expected fantasy 

768
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:59,320
points is elite, just for 
reference. 

769
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:01,120
What's? 
For a mid round running back. 

770
00:45:01,360 --> 00:45:04,120
Yeah, what's Saquon Barkley's 
expected fantasy points per Game

771
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:05,440
Over? 
We can see. 

772
00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:07,640
The last five, so we've got a. 
Similar. 

773
00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:11,760
Give me, yeah, give me one 
second while I pull it back up. 

774
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:18,960
So, so I'm doing expected points
per game. 

775
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:21,520
I'm sorting it by expected 
points per game. 

776
00:45:21,880 --> 00:45:23,960
I gotta take out for some 
reason. 

777
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:27,520
It, it, it, it brings the error 
terms to the front when I sort 

778
00:45:27,520 --> 00:45:33,320
it. 
And so Saquon is at 16 1/2. 

779
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:40,120
So, yeah, I, I mean, I don't 
think it's crazy to say that you

780
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:42,800
would prefer to see a Chase 
Brown team in your portfolio 

781
00:45:42,800 --> 00:45:48,440
than a Saquon Barclay team. 
The difference is that Saquon 

782
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:53,440
has 7.7 expected points at over 
expected per game. 

783
00:45:54,080 --> 00:46:00,040
Yeah, wow. 
Chase Brown is like -.4. 

784
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:04,160
Yeah. 
All that means is that Trace 

785
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:07,000
Brown is actually like a 
positive regression candidate 

786
00:46:07,160 --> 00:46:09,360
and Saquan is a negative 
regression candidate. 

787
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:12,640
True, true. 
I mean, yeah, normally. 

788
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:15,600
That's obviously joking. 
Like a little bit of a joke. 

789
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:19,320
But I do think, like when you 
watch them both play up, you 

790
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:23,520
understand why Saquon is so high
over expectation. 

791
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:25,640
It's because the guy is absurdly
efficient. 

792
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:27,920
He's breaking long plays. 
He's scoring touchdowns from 

793
00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:29,720
far. 
Out when he gets a gap, he's 

794
00:46:29,720 --> 00:46:34,680
make, he's like straight to it. 
He's just he's very decisive and

795
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:36,160
he's been very good in the open 
field. 

796
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:40,200
He's getting the most of it. 
But Chase Brown also is pretty 

797
00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:43,760
explosive, like making a lot of 
his opportunities. 

798
00:46:44,440 --> 00:46:47,800
I mean, if you saw, like if you 
watched the game last night, 

799
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:52,200
that little screen pass down the
sideline, like he was just gone,

800
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:55,720
you know, like he chased Brown. 
And very fast. 

801
00:46:56,040 --> 00:46:58,840
Yeah, he is. 
He's electric, so it wouldn't 

802
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:02,080
shock me at all if he's able to 
put up some fantasy points over 

803
00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:06,360
expectation here in the playoffs
when we need them the most. 

804
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:14,440
The other guys I had here in the
revenge of the Slappy column, 

805
00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:19,000
Rico Dowdle, finally, the 
Cowboys have for the most part 

806
00:47:19,320 --> 00:47:22,560
stopped messing around with 
wasting snaps on Ezekiel 

807
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:23,720
Elliott. 
They did. 

808
00:47:23,720 --> 00:47:25,960
Do you know the stupidest thing 
of all time? 

809
00:47:26,720 --> 00:47:30,320
Throw Zeke in to give him a, a 
carry like inside the the 10 

810
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:33,360
yard line, which went absolutely
nowhere. 

811
00:47:33,680 --> 00:47:37,120
And then they pulled him. 
But it was like, it just, it 

812
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:40,160
felt like a pity touch, like 
you're still, you're still in 

813
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:42,760
the NFL. 
But it was, it was such a make a

814
00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:44,680
wish touch. 
You know what it actually was? 

815
00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:46,760
It was a Salvation Army bucket 
touch. 

816
00:47:46,760 --> 00:47:50,280
They were like, what if Zeke 
could get in the Salvation Army 

817
00:47:50,280 --> 00:47:53,280
bucket one last time? 
Like that's truly what it was. 

818
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:55,880
And it was. 
It was a it was a, what's his 

819
00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:58,960
name, Rudy Touch. 
Yeah, it was some Rudy touch for

820
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:01,680
sure. 
Oh man, And it's. 

821
00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:04,640
And so Rico Dowdle. 
He has about 15 expected points 

822
00:48:04,640 --> 00:48:06,880
per game over the last three 
games. 

823
00:48:07,640 --> 00:48:10,480
I'm I'm I'm using that because 
that's when they started using 

824
00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:14,960
him more. 
Yeah, yeah, he, he has not been 

825
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:18,160
as efficient. 
He, I mean, against the Bengals 

826
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:22,000
he looked decent, but he. 
I mean, the Bengals made this 

827
00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:22,800
guy look great. 
Yeah. 

828
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:28,760
So over the last tree, he's 
actually 1.4 expected points 

829
00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:34,040
over over expected. 
So like, I, I mean, I, I kind of

830
00:48:34,040 --> 00:48:40,200
think Rico Duddle is like at 
expectation efficiency wise all 

831
00:48:40,200 --> 00:48:45,440
season for a terrible team. 
So he might actually be good, I 

832
00:48:45,440 --> 00:48:48,440
don't know. 
Yeah, I I think he's probably a 

833
00:48:48,560 --> 00:48:51,680
replacement level back, but. 
I think he might be just a 

834
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:54,720
little, just one notch above 
replacement level. 

835
00:48:55,040 --> 00:48:57,960
You said he's giving he's 
playing like replacement. 

836
00:48:57,960 --> 00:49:02,840
He's giving replacement level 
quality play for a garbage team.

837
00:49:03,600 --> 00:49:07,600
Yeah. 
Which that may it does make me 

838
00:49:07,600 --> 00:49:11,160
wonder what we what you'd get if
you actually this is academic, 

839
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:13,840
but what you'd get if he played 
for a good team. 

840
00:49:14,600 --> 00:49:16,840
Matt Yeah, imagine if the 
Cowboys are actually good this 

841
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:19,040
year. 
Rico Dowdle would have been such

842
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:20,960
a smash. 
I just, I wish I had a time 

843
00:49:20,960 --> 00:49:24,120
machine to go back and make this
version of Draco talk to the 

844
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:28,000
version of Draco that was just 
absolutely stopping me from 

845
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:28,800
taking Rico. 
Down. 

846
00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:31,080
I didn't stop you. 
We took like, we took like 

847
00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:34,520
fucking 30% Rico dowel. 
We did. 

848
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:36,920
We did take a lot of Rico Dowdle
in your defense. 

849
00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:40,760
We just would have had like 60% 
pump the brakes on me. 

850
00:49:40,960 --> 00:49:42,920
But you know what? 
Pumping the brakes on that Rico 

851
00:49:42,920 --> 00:49:45,960
Dowdle probably got us a lot 
more Chase Brown got us a lot 

852
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:50,080
more Zach Charboning and Zach 
right, is the last of the 

853
00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:53,360
triumvirate of the revenge of 
the slappy running backs. 

854
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:58,680
I mean, the the Kenneth Walker 
injury I we don't have very much

855
00:49:58,680 --> 00:50:00,840
news right now it it's a 
Tuesday. 

856
00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:04,080
So we don't have anything really
further than what we knew last 

857
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:07,720
week. 
But what if this is a multi week

858
00:50:07,720 --> 00:50:11,400
Kenneth Walker injury here? 
That's what it actually sounded 

859
00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:13,400
like. 
That's what it, I mean, that's 

860
00:50:13,400 --> 00:50:15,520
kind of how I'm reading the tea 
leaves as well. 

861
00:50:16,120 --> 00:50:18,360
They're it it to me. 
What I've seen is they're, 

862
00:50:18,440 --> 00:50:21,360
they're really just trying to 
like, find out what's wrong 

863
00:50:21,400 --> 00:50:28,080
still, you know. 
So, so he said it was originally

864
00:50:28,080 --> 00:50:33,000
an ankle injury and now it's a 
yeah, now it's a calf strain as 

865
00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:38,000
well, which is like. 
I've seen they said the ankle is

866
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:41,640
now no longer the concern and 
that it's transitioned to the 

867
00:50:41,640 --> 00:50:43,000
calf. 
That's the concern. 

868
00:50:43,920 --> 00:50:45,840
But right, that's always a 
little scary. 

869
00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:49,680
The calf stuff is pretty scary. 
It's not as bad. 

870
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:53,000
That's the slow. 
That's the slow recovering 

871
00:50:53,200 --> 00:50:54,360
muscle. 
Yeah. 

872
00:50:54,360 --> 00:51:01,360
Like I I'm not a medical person 
so I shouldn't say this, but 

873
00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:04,640
I've always had been more 
frustrated with my calf 

874
00:51:04,640 --> 00:51:09,240
injuries. 
Yeah, and and I mean, I do know 

875
00:51:09,240 --> 00:51:13,280
that the calf injuries can cause
additional concern for Achilles 

876
00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:15,440
stuff. 
So they they sometimes are like 

877
00:51:15,440 --> 00:51:17,960
extra careful on stuff like 
that. 

878
00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:25,000
Anyway, Yeah, if if Charbonnay 
is the bell cow back, which is 

879
00:51:25,000 --> 00:51:28,640
what makes his contingent upside
so strong. 

880
00:51:28,640 --> 00:51:31,400
It is his profile is that he's a
do everything. 

881
00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:34,640
He is a three down, very capable
workhorse. 

882
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:39,040
He lacks some of the, you know, 
Jenna Saqua that Kenneth Walker 

883
00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:43,440
brings, but he can do some stuff
better than Kenneth Walker. 

884
00:51:43,560 --> 00:51:48,000
And you know, he's he's 
certainly a very competent 3 

885
00:51:48,000 --> 00:51:52,200
down back and he just, he had. 
29 expected points in Week 14. 

886
00:51:52,720 --> 00:51:56,040
Yeah, I mean, it was. 
Like he had he had efficiency, 

887
00:51:56,440 --> 00:52:00,840
but 29 expected points? 
Like that's insane. 

888
00:52:01,600 --> 00:52:04,040
Yeah. 
Before I did my diversification 

889
00:52:04,040 --> 00:52:08,960
stuff for my DFS portfolio this 
weekend, I think I had something

890
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:13,480
like 87 percent or Zach. 
Sharpening. 

891
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:16,360
I know she kept it. 
I diversified it down to like a 

892
00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:21,960
little below 60%, but that's 
like I put a pretty high premium

893
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:25,960
on mitigating risk in my DFS 
portfolio and it still was like,

894
00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:28,880
yeah, dude slam the fuck out of 
Zach Sharpening. 

895
00:52:31,240 --> 00:52:33,960
Yeah, he's a great player. 
So yeah, those slappy running 

896
00:52:33,960 --> 00:52:39,920
backs I think are definitely 
live to potentially be defining 

897
00:52:39,920 --> 00:52:42,600
pieces in the playoffs. 
Pretty exciting. 

898
00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:49,120
I, I think we can, we can move 
on or, or you said you'd really 

899
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:51,440
don't want to spend a ton of 
time on RB efficiency. 

900
00:52:51,440 --> 00:52:52,920
I I just have a couple notes on 
that just. 

901
00:52:52,920 --> 00:52:55,960
Just to mention it when when it 
comes up, I want to talk about, 

902
00:52:56,160 --> 00:53:00,320
because the reason I, I want to 
focus on this chart and is 

903
00:53:00,320 --> 00:53:05,120
because I kind of want to talk 
about guys who, who are useful 

904
00:53:05,120 --> 00:53:12,160
for the playoff stuff like who, 
who are the volume guys that 

905
00:53:13,040 --> 00:53:16,400
that are cheap in in the playoff
basketball. 

906
00:53:16,480 --> 00:53:19,920
And I think you brought up Naji 
as an example. 

907
00:53:20,800 --> 00:53:24,640
Like, yeah, I mean, look, I know
it's Derek Henry. 

908
00:53:24,640 --> 00:53:27,240
I know Derek Henry is like 
generational and that like 

909
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:31,240
comparing their snap rate with 
Naji is like stupid. 

910
00:53:31,240 --> 00:53:35,080
It's very, very stupid. 
But at the same time there is 

911
00:53:35,080 --> 00:53:40,160
like there's like an entire 
draft between Derek Henry and 

912
00:53:40,160 --> 00:53:45,520
Naji Harris in ADP And these 
guys are very similar snap rate,

913
00:53:46,000 --> 00:53:48,080
very similar playoff 
probability. 

914
00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:52,520
And it does. 
It does kind of, I think 

915
00:53:53,080 --> 00:53:56,280
accentuate that point about 
don't take Derek Henry at the 

916
00:53:56,280 --> 00:54:00,600
win two turn. 
Yeah, the the one thing just to 

917
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:04,400
like, help people properly frame
it in their heads is that when 

918
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:09,880
you're ranking players for 
playoff basketball, the tier is 

919
00:54:09,880 --> 00:54:12,040
based on their playoff 
probability. 

920
00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:15,800
It has nothing to do with the 
players skill or ability to 

921
00:54:15,800 --> 00:54:17,920
score fantasy. 
So they're the same tier. 

922
00:54:18,320 --> 00:54:20,720
Yeah. 
And then inside the tier, you're

923
00:54:20,720 --> 00:54:24,800
going to break ties towards the 
the players who score more 

924
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:27,760
fantasy points. 
So Naji Harris and Derrick Henry

925
00:54:27,760 --> 00:54:31,880
for playoff basketball purposes 
are the same tier, but like you 

926
00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:34,160
said, Derrick Henry goes much, 
much earlier. 

927
00:54:34,520 --> 00:54:39,760
The the one thing that's a 
little like I'm I'm I've gotten 

928
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:42,880
a lot of Naji been hammering 
Steelers lately just because the

929
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:45,160
market refuses to correct their 
price. 

930
00:54:45,960 --> 00:54:50,280
The one thing that I am wanting 
to keep my eye on here is if 

931
00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:55,320
Jalen Warren starts to creep in 
a little bit more like he he 

932
00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:58,040
hasn't been like edging Naji 
out, but he has been on the 

933
00:54:58,040 --> 00:55:01,200
field and like this last week, I
don't know if you got to watch 

934
00:55:01,200 --> 00:55:04,320
the the Steelers game, but they 
took Naji off the field in a 

935
00:55:04,320 --> 00:55:07,920
couple situations where it 
wasn't like, oh, now it's long 

936
00:55:07,920 --> 00:55:09,840
down and distance. 
So let's get Warren out here. 

937
00:55:09,840 --> 00:55:12,360
It was like third and short 
inside the 10. 

938
00:55:12,680 --> 00:55:14,800
That's like, this is Jalen 
Warren time. 

939
00:55:15,240 --> 00:55:19,880
And so it's not what you would 
if you just ask someone who's 

940
00:55:19,880 --> 00:55:23,120
not like in the weeds on it. 
They're like, hey, the Steelers 

941
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:25,200
are on the field. 
It's third and short inside the 

942
00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:27,000
10. 
Who's the running back? 

943
00:55:27,440 --> 00:55:30,560
The your average person is just 
gonna say, oh, Naji, the 

944
00:55:30,560 --> 00:55:33,400
Steelers don't think that. 
The Steelers think that it's 

945
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:34,760
Warren, right? 
Right. 

946
00:55:35,600 --> 00:55:43,280
I I think you're looking at a 
6040 and split between Naji and 

947
00:55:43,880 --> 00:55:47,760
and Joan Warren, which means 
that Joan Warren is kind of in 

948
00:55:47,760 --> 00:55:49,640
the same tier as Derrick Henry 
as well. 

949
00:55:50,800 --> 00:55:54,160
Yeah, if if you're being, if 
you're being fully, yeah, maybe 

950
00:55:54,160 --> 00:55:57,200
just a tier below, but. 
Yeah, I'd say maybe slightly 

951
00:55:57,200 --> 00:56:00,560
below, but yeah, they're, 
they're much closer than people 

952
00:56:00,560 --> 00:56:04,520
would, would believe. 
And then it also kind of speaks 

953
00:56:04,520 --> 00:56:07,960
to Justice Hill. 
Being just as a great pick. 

954
00:56:09,680 --> 00:56:12,880
We give given he has a pretty 
like I'm I'm gonna go to the 

955
00:56:12,880 --> 00:56:15,600
next chart. 
Where is he? 

956
00:56:16,160 --> 00:56:18,600
Yeah, right. 
He's a pretty carrendo. 

957
00:56:19,440 --> 00:56:21,760
He's a pretty good and snap rate
as well. 

958
00:56:22,840 --> 00:56:24,760
Yeah, right, right. 
With Jalen Warren too. 

959
00:56:25,040 --> 00:56:28,960
So yeah, the Justice Hill's been
a fantastic pick. 

960
00:56:29,080 --> 00:56:31,960
He'll he'll probably just stay 
up pretty fantastic pick for 

961
00:56:31,960 --> 00:56:35,840
most of the tournament unless 
enough slappies get on to him. 

962
00:56:36,360 --> 00:56:39,320
But the other thing that's kind 
of beautiful about Justice Hill 

963
00:56:39,320 --> 00:56:43,040
is in your run outs when the 
Ravens don't make it. 

964
00:56:43,040 --> 00:56:45,760
So like, if you're using the 
Ravens as your secondary stack, 

965
00:56:45,760 --> 00:56:49,680
like you don't have Lamar, 
Justice Hill is an even better 

966
00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:52,440
pick in my opinion because you 
can be playing it as a Raven's 

967
00:56:52,440 --> 00:56:54,560
loss. 
And when the Ravens are playing 

968
00:56:54,560 --> 00:56:58,360
from behind like it is Justice 
Hill's backfield, it ain't 

969
00:56:58,360 --> 00:56:59,800
Derrick Henry's backfield. 
Right, right. 

970
00:56:59,920 --> 00:57:03,200
Derrick Henry is not playing. 
Derrick Henry rides the pine and

971
00:57:03,200 --> 00:57:08,080
he breathes heavily with the 
anticipation of the Ravens 

972
00:57:08,080 --> 00:57:10,480
getting a lead that he can salt 
away in the fourth quarter. 

973
00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:12,160
Right? 
Like, that's, that's what the 

974
00:57:12,160 --> 00:57:14,560
first couple quarters of the 
game look like when the Ravens 

975
00:57:14,560 --> 00:57:17,560
get behind. 
So Justice Hill is is a pretty 

976
00:57:17,600 --> 00:57:21,680
strong pick there. 
I know I already talked about 

977
00:57:21,680 --> 00:57:24,320
the Vikings, but Aaron Jones 
looks like phenomenal. 

978
00:57:24,760 --> 00:57:28,840
Yeah, no, he he's great. 
The other one that I think is 

979
00:57:28,840 --> 00:57:32,720
worth talking about is Josh 
Jacobs, who has higher 

980
00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:36,320
conference championship 
probability than Aaron Jones 

981
00:57:36,320 --> 00:57:38,040
does. 
The Packers are a little bit 

982
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:40,120
stronger there. 
I don't. 

983
00:57:40,240 --> 00:57:43,560
I think that in my opinion, my 
IKB. 

984
00:57:43,600 --> 00:57:46,440
You're talking about 29% versus 
23%. 

985
00:57:46,720 --> 00:57:48,360
So to me that's like the same 
tier. 

986
00:57:49,360 --> 00:57:51,760
Yeah, my, my IKB is that they're
the same. 

987
00:57:51,840 --> 00:57:54,720
That's what I was was going to 
say that the yeah, Packers are 

988
00:57:54,720 --> 00:57:58,480
kind of the same bet, even 
though our math says that the 

989
00:57:58,520 --> 00:58:01,600
Packers are better. 
The way I kind of want to IK be 

990
00:58:01,600 --> 00:58:03,600
it is that they're they're the 
same thing. 

991
00:58:04,120 --> 00:58:07,800
And so the one thing I'm kind of
interested in, and I want your 

992
00:58:07,800 --> 00:58:12,240
opinion on this for Josh Jacobs 
is he's been really efficient 

993
00:58:12,240 --> 00:58:16,720
lately and very touchdown heavy.
The other thing that he's doing 

994
00:58:16,720 --> 00:58:20,920
is he's breaking tackles and 
forcing missed tackles like 

995
00:58:21,000 --> 00:58:24,280
there's no tomorrow. 
Like if Josh, I mean, he's 

996
00:58:24,280 --> 00:58:25,680
playing. 
Really, really well. 

997
00:58:26,480 --> 00:58:28,920
Well, he he is, he's definitely 
playing well. 

998
00:58:29,120 --> 00:58:31,360
The thing that's a little 
frustrating as someone who's 

999
00:58:31,360 --> 00:58:35,080
like who's had some Josh Jacobs 
recently and been like, Oh yeah,

1000
00:58:35,480 --> 00:58:39,080
slamming Josh Jacobs in this 
spot is when he breaks the 

1001
00:58:39,080 --> 00:58:41,000
tackles or forces to miss 
tackles. 

1002
00:58:41,600 --> 00:58:45,120
It's very David Montgomery ask 
in that not a ton happens 

1003
00:58:45,120 --> 00:58:47,520
afterwards. 
It's like, dude, this guy just 

1004
00:58:47,520 --> 00:58:50,640
broke 3 tackles on this play and
it's like, and he got him one 

1005
00:58:50,640 --> 00:58:54,560
more yard. 
It's like shit, so he's not been

1006
00:58:54,760 --> 00:58:57,480
and don't take this is like I'm 
saying that Josh Jacobs has been

1007
00:58:57,480 --> 00:58:59,320
bad. 
He's been very good. 

1008
00:58:59,800 --> 00:59:03,280
I'm just a little concerned that
it's really coming heavily on 

1009
00:59:03,280 --> 00:59:05,920
the back of touchdowns. 
Like if you look at his 

1010
00:59:05,920 --> 00:59:09,760
touchdowns over the last few 
weeks, he's been he's been sun 

1011
00:59:09,760 --> 00:59:11,880
running the touchdowns. 
And so I'm just a little 

1012
00:59:11,880 --> 00:59:14,920
concerned there. 
But what are your thoughts on 

1013
00:59:14,920 --> 00:59:17,520
him, you know, specifically in 
playoff best while I'm thinking 

1014
00:59:17,520 --> 00:59:22,080
through like in a Packers loss, 
how, how bad could Josh Jacobs 

1015
00:59:22,080 --> 00:59:23,520
be? 
Like what does the floor look 

1016
00:59:23,520 --> 00:59:26,920
like there? 
Yeah, the floor works bad where 

1017
00:59:27,120 --> 00:59:30,000
they got dominated the front. 
They don't establish the run. 

1018
00:59:30,000 --> 00:59:33,640
They have to pass a lot. 
And he gets some targets, but he

1019
00:59:33,640 --> 00:59:37,760
doesn't get going. 
And I mean, I, I to me, the 

1020
00:59:37,760 --> 00:59:40,160
framing is that he's the same 
tier. 

1021
00:59:40,160 --> 00:59:44,800
He's very similar playoff 
probability to Aaron Jones in in

1022
00:59:44,800 --> 00:59:50,320
the Vikings. 
Aaron Jones where we where we 

1023
00:59:50,760 --> 00:59:57,920
his, his snap rate is like a 
little bit less. 

1024
00:59:58,560 --> 01:00:06,080
But then let me let me pull up 
the and let me let me pull up 

1025
01:00:06,080 --> 01:00:13,680
the expected points as well. 
So Aaron Jones his his is his 

1026
01:00:13,680 --> 01:00:21,400
useful snap rate is only 4.4. 
His expected points per game 

1027
01:00:21,400 --> 01:00:25,880
over the last I just just last 
week, I should say. 

1028
01:00:26,800 --> 01:00:34,800
So let me change that to let me 
change that to the last four so 

1029
01:00:34,800 --> 01:00:39,280
that I can. 
So his his expected points per 

1030
01:00:39,280 --> 01:00:45,880
game is 14.8 versus Josh Jacobs 
is at 20.8. 

1031
01:00:51,400 --> 01:00:56,560
So that kind of, so we're 
saying, we're saying that 

1032
01:00:56,560 --> 01:00:59,600
they're in the same tier, but 
Josh Jacobs clearly ahead of 

1033
01:00:59,600 --> 01:01:04,680
them in the tier and then he 
he's priced like around and a 

1034
01:01:04,680 --> 01:01:10,840
bit ahead of them. 
And I, I, I guess putting all 

1035
01:01:10,840 --> 01:01:13,040
that together when you, when you
compare the projections, when 

1036
01:01:13,040 --> 01:01:18,240
you compare the Super Bowl odds 
and Josh Jacobs should be going,

1037
01:01:18,480 --> 01:01:20,040
but that seems about right 
actually. 

1038
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:24,480
Yeah, I know. 
He he's, he's not terribly 

1039
01:01:24,480 --> 01:01:26,440
mispriced. 
I, I think he's going in a 

1040
01:01:26,440 --> 01:01:28,880
pretty I think. 
He's like, yeah, I think that 

1041
01:01:28,880 --> 01:01:34,040
that seems right when I look at 
like, who he's next to and that 

1042
01:01:34,040 --> 01:01:36,680
that seems like right. 
Yeah. 

1043
01:01:37,280 --> 01:01:39,880
And Echo going ahead of Jack 
Jacobs doesn't make a lot of 

1044
01:01:39,880 --> 01:01:41,760
sense to me. 
Oh really? 

1045
01:01:41,760 --> 01:01:43,560
I mean, the Chiefs have much 
better. 

1046
01:01:43,800 --> 01:01:45,000
Oh, you're right. 
You're right. 

1047
01:01:45,000 --> 01:01:45,800
You're right. 
You're right. 

1048
01:01:46,200 --> 01:01:49,120
Yeah, Derrick Henry going that 
far ahead of Josh Jacobs, so it 

1049
01:01:49,120 --> 01:01:51,840
doesn't make sense. 
Should probably go Pacheco, 

1050
01:01:51,840 --> 01:01:54,800
Henry Jacobs but. 
My my brain went back to the 

1051
01:01:55,160 --> 01:01:58,920
projected points thing but. 
Here here's I got a fun trivia 

1052
01:01:58,920 --> 01:02:01,760
question for you. 
How many touchdowns is Josh 

1053
01:02:01,760 --> 01:02:04,600
Jacobs averaging per game over 
the last four weeks? 

1054
01:02:06,480 --> 01:02:12,560
And last four weeks averaging 
per game and I'm just gonna 

1055
01:02:12,880 --> 01:02:16,200
throw out two. 
Yeah, he's averaging 2 

1056
01:02:16,200 --> 01:02:21,360
touchdowns a game over he's had 
three or he's had 2-3 touchdown 

1057
01:02:21,360 --> 01:02:26,400
games in the last four weeks. 
So he's running pretty hot on 

1058
01:02:26,400 --> 01:02:30,440
touchdowns again. 
He's getting getting a lot of 

1059
01:02:30,440 --> 01:02:32,720
work. 
You know, he's got 18 carries, 

1060
01:02:32,720 --> 01:02:36,560
26 carries, 19 carries. 
So he he's averaging, he's, he's

1061
01:02:36,560 --> 01:02:39,960
averaging 1 1/2 expected 
touchdowns a game. 

1062
01:02:41,440 --> 01:02:47,000
So his his role is incredible. 
Yes, and the role is good. 

1063
01:02:47,440 --> 01:02:51,280
He is running a little bit good 
and so I'm just I'm a little 

1064
01:02:51,280 --> 01:02:55,360
concerned that when it comes to 
the playoffs, the. 

1065
01:02:55,360 --> 01:02:57,360
Floor game is bad. 
And they're yeah. 

1066
01:02:57,360 --> 01:03:00,640
And they play better teams. 
Like I'm a little worried about 

1067
01:03:00,640 --> 01:03:04,720
that. 
So I almost, I'm like, I'm into 

1068
01:03:04,720 --> 01:03:08,080
Jacobs as a way to get me 
through some stuff in the first 

1069
01:03:08,080 --> 01:03:08,520
round. 
Bye. 

1070
01:03:08,520 --> 01:03:12,080
But the thing that I'm actually 
really into using Jacobs for is 

1071
01:03:12,080 --> 01:03:15,360
I want to play Jacobs more when 
I'm playing the Packers to go 

1072
01:03:15,360 --> 01:03:17,840
all the way. 
Like when I'm playing it with 

1073
01:03:17,840 --> 01:03:20,920
Love, then I like it a lot 
better because I'm like, yeah, 

1074
01:03:20,920 --> 01:03:23,640
Jacobs is going to smash because
the Packers are winning. 

1075
01:03:23,640 --> 01:03:25,360
He's going to score 2 touchdowns
a week. 

1076
01:03:25,480 --> 01:03:28,720
Like, but if I'm just doing a 
little Jacobs, like one off for 

1077
01:03:28,720 --> 01:03:32,400
a Jacobs plus a receiver skinny 
stack, they don't have love. 

1078
01:03:32,480 --> 01:03:36,200
You don't like that usage? 
Yeah, I I like it less. 

1079
01:03:37,240 --> 01:03:39,640
The other way that I like 
playing it is if I'm doing like 

1080
01:03:39,640 --> 01:03:43,920
a Chiefs or a Bills thing and 
then I just kind of go down the 

1081
01:03:43,920 --> 01:03:49,080
board and I'm hammering Packers 
and Vikings or something like 

1082
01:03:49,080 --> 01:03:53,040
two of the cheaper NFC teams 
that are still good and covering

1083
01:03:53,040 --> 01:03:55,800
a lot of conference championship
outcomes. 

1084
01:03:55,800 --> 01:03:58,640
So let me ask you a kind of a 
practical question here. 

1085
01:03:59,160 --> 01:04:02,560
Josh Jacobs goes a good bit 
ahead of Jordan Love. 

1086
01:04:03,840 --> 01:04:08,640
If you take Josh Jacobs, then 
you you, you have to have Jordan

1087
01:04:08,640 --> 01:04:11,920
Love almost. 
It depends if you're. 

1088
01:04:12,080 --> 01:04:14,760
I mean it, it depends on the 
quarterback you've already 

1089
01:04:14,760 --> 01:04:17,640
gotten. 
Yeah, I I'm usually pretty 

1090
01:04:17,640 --> 01:04:20,440
aggressive in pushing my 
quarterbacks in playoff 

1091
01:04:20,440 --> 01:04:22,800
basketball like my my second. 
One, you just said you can't 

1092
01:04:22,800 --> 01:04:27,120
really do that. 
Well, people don't really no 

1093
01:04:27,120 --> 01:04:30,200
one's really going to take your 
Jordan love, you know, like you 

1094
01:04:30,200 --> 01:04:34,080
take Josh Jacobs like people, it
depends on your room. 

1095
01:04:34,200 --> 01:04:37,000
You got to you got to see if 
people in there know what's 

1096
01:04:37,000 --> 01:04:38,760
happening or if they're 
clueless. 

1097
01:04:39,520 --> 01:04:44,320
And, and the other thing is like
if I'm playing a, if I'm playing

1098
01:04:44,320 --> 01:04:47,080
a team where I don't need a 
second quarterback, like the 

1099
01:04:47,080 --> 01:04:50,280
Bills, for example, if I'm 
playing the Bills and I take 

1100
01:04:50,280 --> 01:04:55,880
Josh Jacobs, my, my proxy for, 
oh, I'm, I'm saying like this is

1101
01:04:55,880 --> 01:04:58,400
a, a scenario where the Packers 
make a deep run. 

1102
01:04:58,400 --> 01:05:00,760
And that's why Jacobs is good 
because the Packers are winning 

1103
01:05:00,760 --> 01:05:03,640
games. 
My proxy for instead of taking 

1104
01:05:03,640 --> 01:05:07,040
Jordan Love here because I don't
need him because I have Josh 

1105
01:05:07,040 --> 01:05:10,320
Allen, I'm just going to take 
more Packers receivers. 

1106
01:05:10,440 --> 01:05:13,800
And so that way I'm compounding 
my bet with Jacobs so that when 

1107
01:05:13,800 --> 01:05:17,160
the Packers win and when Josh 
Jacobs scores lots of points, 

1108
01:05:17,480 --> 01:05:20,200
hopefully one of these receivers
is also having a good game as 

1109
01:05:20,200 --> 01:05:22,440
well. 
And that means in the next 

1110
01:05:22,440 --> 01:05:26,160
round, I've advanced more total 
players on my team. 

1111
01:05:26,440 --> 01:05:29,840
My team has more live roster 
spots and it's going to be doing

1112
01:05:29,840 --> 01:05:32,920
better. 
And so basically I what I'm 

1113
01:05:32,920 --> 01:05:37,760
saying is a one off Josh Jacobs 
with no receivers is probably 

1114
01:05:37,760 --> 01:05:40,880
pretty bad, right? 
Right, that makes sense. 

1115
01:05:40,920 --> 01:05:42,440
Yeah, that's kind of the way to 
frame it. 

1116
01:05:43,080 --> 01:05:46,800
Right. 
You wanna play it as a Packers 

1117
01:05:46,800 --> 01:05:50,360
deep run, But Jordan Love isn't 
the only way to play that. 

1118
01:05:50,880 --> 01:05:55,480
Yeah, very, very well put. 
OK, yeah, I, I, I think it's 

1119
01:05:55,480 --> 01:05:57,760
time to move on to at receivers 
here. 

1120
01:05:58,120 --> 01:06:01,520
Yeah, let's we, we can do a 
quick tight end pit stop here 

1121
01:06:01,520 --> 01:06:01,920
'cause. 
There are. 

1122
01:06:01,920 --> 01:06:03,120
Oh, oh, sorry. 
Yeah, I forgot. 

1123
01:06:03,120 --> 01:06:04,920
We, I forgot. 
We do tight ends first. 

1124
01:06:05,120 --> 01:06:06,800
These are, these are gonna be 
fast though. 

1125
01:06:06,800 --> 01:06:09,280
I can, I can literally like 
rapid fire through them and get 

1126
01:06:09,280 --> 01:06:12,440
your, get your insights here. 
We talked about Grant Calcotera 

1127
01:06:12,440 --> 01:06:15,000
last week. 
Dallas Goddard's officially on 

1128
01:06:15,000 --> 01:06:17,560
IR now. 
Calcotera is out there for all 

1129
01:06:17,560 --> 01:06:21,040
the snaps. 
He's a fantastic last round 

1130
01:06:21,040 --> 01:06:23,640
playoff basketball pick for 
anything where the Eagles are 

1131
01:06:23,640 --> 01:06:26,560
going to the Super Bowl. 
Don't like him as much if you 

1132
01:06:26,560 --> 01:06:29,360
don't have Eagles Super Bowl on 
that team. 

1133
01:06:30,320 --> 01:06:33,840
But even if it's like a an AFC 
team quarterback, like you have 

1134
01:06:33,840 --> 01:06:37,040
Josh Allen, you have Pat Mahomes
and you got Eagles stuff as a 

1135
01:06:37,040 --> 01:06:41,000
secondary, I still don't mind 
that Grant Calcaterra scoring a 

1136
01:06:41,000 --> 01:06:42,880
touchdown to the Super Bowl. 
That's basically what you're 

1137
01:06:42,880 --> 01:06:46,040
betting on. 
So he's a he's an awesome last 

1138
01:06:46,040 --> 01:06:50,960
round pick. 
So is is Dallas Goddard just 

1139
01:06:50,960 --> 01:06:52,680
done then? 
I don't know. 

1140
01:06:52,680 --> 01:06:55,480
He's on IR so he's he's gone for
four weeks minimum. 

1141
01:06:56,120 --> 01:06:59,200
Haven't seen for sure what's 
going to happen there. 

1142
01:06:59,680 --> 01:07:02,680
There are some teams or I'm 
still we're still we have Dallas

1143
01:07:02,680 --> 01:07:04,920
Goddard ranked still. 
We just we just don't know. 

1144
01:07:04,960 --> 01:07:08,200
And so you could kind of even 
treat Dallas Goddard just like a

1145
01:07:08,200 --> 01:07:10,440
bye week player, right? 
Like he's not gonna help you in 

1146
01:07:10,440 --> 01:07:13,600
round one, but he could be. 
I mean, you know, you get Dallas

1147
01:07:13,600 --> 01:07:16,240
Goddard back in the Super Bowl 
and he scores a touchdown like 

1148
01:07:17,000 --> 01:07:22,120
that's pretty awesome. 
So he he's one where we've moved

1149
01:07:22,120 --> 01:07:26,680
him down in our rankings due to 
the uncertainty, But we're, 

1150
01:07:26,680 --> 01:07:29,360
we're just gonna need to watch 
that injury situation and get an

1151
01:07:29,360 --> 01:07:31,280
updated timeline before we know.
Right. 

1152
01:07:31,760 --> 01:07:33,880
Really how to handle that right?
But for now. 

1153
01:07:33,880 --> 01:07:37,360
Because that's that what strikes
me is, OK, you're playing Kafka,

1154
01:07:37,360 --> 01:07:40,400
Terra to the because the Eagles 
are under the Super Bowl. 

1155
01:07:41,040 --> 01:07:44,440
That's like, what, end of 
January, early February? 

1156
01:07:46,280 --> 01:07:48,840
Should we? 
There has to be a decent 

1157
01:07:48,840 --> 01:07:51,000
probability that Dallas Goddard 
is backed by Dan. 

1158
01:07:51,440 --> 01:07:56,040
There there definitely is. 
So it's it's not to say that 

1159
01:07:56,040 --> 01:07:59,000
like you draft only Calcatera, 
no Goddard anymore. 

1160
01:07:59,000 --> 01:08:01,840
Like we still have Goddard ahead
of Calcatera in our in our 

1161
01:08:01,840 --> 01:08:05,600
rankings. 
So, but it's just that there's 

1162
01:08:05,600 --> 01:08:09,800
now a, you know, if prior to 
Dallas Goddard going on IR, the 

1163
01:08:09,800 --> 01:08:12,440
probability that Calcatera was a
good pick that was going to hit 

1164
01:08:12,440 --> 01:08:17,120
your line up in the Super Bowl 
was maybe like 5%, you know, and

1165
01:08:17,120 --> 01:08:19,800
now it is much higher, right? 
Like you've got all and. 

1166
01:08:19,800 --> 01:08:22,479
He's rarely drafted right. 
He's. 

1167
01:08:23,080 --> 01:08:26,760
The slappies drafted now like 
people are aware he was one of 

1168
01:08:26,760 --> 01:08:30,279
Davis has Calcatera is one of 
his favorite players. 

1169
01:08:30,640 --> 01:08:34,720
Davis is big into Calcatera now.
That's a bad sign. 

1170
01:08:35,000 --> 01:08:39,680
Rightfully so, it's a good pick,
but but yes, there's there's a 

1171
01:08:39,680 --> 01:08:42,600
horde of slappies that are 
descending on Grant Calcatera. 

1172
01:08:43,520 --> 01:08:47,240
Imagine taking grind called 
Katera over Brock Bowers. 

1173
01:08:49,920 --> 01:08:54,200
I'm joking, obviously. 
Oh man, OK, this is. 

1174
01:08:54,279 --> 01:08:58,960
Price JSN is 59.1. 
Yeah, I use this Seahawks. 

1175
01:08:59,160 --> 01:09:00,560
You shouldn't draft Seahawks 
yet. 

1176
01:09:00,920 --> 01:09:03,920
It's like by Thursday you'll 
probably know if you can draft 

1177
01:09:03,920 --> 01:09:06,040
Seahawks. 
You get a Rams loss, you get a 

1178
01:09:06,040 --> 01:09:09,880
Rams loss, and you better 
believe you're buppy, that I'm 

1179
01:09:09,880 --> 01:09:13,120
going to have a lot of JSN, you 
know, Thursday night after the 

1180
01:09:13,120 --> 01:09:19,000
game's over. 
So the other one I had a 

1181
01:09:19,000 --> 01:09:24,200
question on was Zach Ertz what 
do you think? 

1182
01:09:24,240 --> 01:09:27,720
If I'm doing the Jayden Daniels 
thing right, lots of times 

1183
01:09:28,359 --> 01:09:31,200
people will do this. 
This little commanders 3 piece, 

1184
01:09:31,200 --> 01:09:35,240
you go Jaden Daniels, Terry 
Mclaurin, Brian Robinson to help

1185
01:09:35,240 --> 01:09:37,600
advance a bye week team through 
right. 

1186
01:09:37,600 --> 01:09:40,120
They're they're pretty 
commanders are low probability 

1187
01:09:40,120 --> 01:09:43,800
to make conference championship,
but you get 3 pretty high value 

1188
01:09:43,800 --> 01:09:47,800
fantasy pieces for where they're
priced at and you can get them 

1189
01:09:47,800 --> 01:09:49,680
all together. 
It's a nice correlated bet. 

1190
01:09:50,399 --> 01:09:52,800
What do you think about Zach 
Ertz? 

1191
01:09:52,800 --> 01:09:55,400
Because after you run out of 
Brian Robinson and and Terry 

1192
01:09:55,400 --> 01:09:58,000
Mclaurin, you're kind of like 
out of Commanders pieces. 

1193
01:09:58,000 --> 01:10:01,000
Do you think Zach Ertz is at all
viable to tack on there? 

1194
01:10:04,040 --> 01:10:09,600
So here's my talk. 
And what we're saying here is 

1195
01:10:09,600 --> 01:10:13,960
that you take the. 
The consideration is do you take

1196
01:10:13,960 --> 01:10:22,040
Zach Ertz and for his round one 
points and it strikes me that 

1197
01:10:23,640 --> 01:10:29,920
Zach Ertz is still going to have
a low projection in half PPO and

1198
01:10:29,920 --> 01:10:34,800
if round one points are like the
most plentiful available, then 

1199
01:10:35,720 --> 01:10:39,360
that he doesn't seem to quite 
fit the profile for me to be 

1200
01:10:39,360 --> 01:10:44,440
attractive as a round one. 
Get your points guy. 

1201
01:10:45,480 --> 01:10:48,000
Yeah, I, the more I think 
through it, because what you, 

1202
01:10:48,000 --> 01:10:52,360
what you run into is you're, 
you're stuck where there's no 

1203
01:10:52,360 --> 01:10:56,040
more good players that you can 
take and remain in structure and

1204
01:10:56,040 --> 01:11:00,840
not draft more than 4 total NFL 
teams and then inherently 

1205
01:11:00,840 --> 01:11:05,040
guarantee a dead roster spot by 
the conference championship, 

1206
01:11:05,120 --> 01:11:07,040
right. 
And, and very likely earlier. 

1207
01:11:07,600 --> 01:11:13,080
But if we're talking about like 
a team like the Commanders who 

1208
01:11:13,080 --> 01:11:16,600
are very likely dead by the 
conference championship anyway, 

1209
01:11:17,960 --> 01:11:21,240
if instead of taking Zach Ertz, 
who might project a lot worse, 

1210
01:11:21,240 --> 01:11:26,200
like what if I do just pivot and
do like A and JSN is my random 

1211
01:11:26,200 --> 01:11:29,320
one off player? 
He's my team. 

1212
01:11:29,600 --> 01:11:32,480
And yes, I guarantee that I 
can't have 10 players in the 

1213
01:11:32,480 --> 01:11:35,240
conference championship, but 
he'll project a lot better than 

1214
01:11:35,240 --> 01:11:38,280
Zach Ertz and like, there's also
no guarantee ertz is going to 

1215
01:11:38,280 --> 01:11:40,600
the conference championship 
anyway. 

1216
01:11:40,960 --> 01:11:44,480
I think on those teams with 
really heavy bye weeks, this is 

1217
01:11:44,480 --> 01:11:47,160
the only time I'm doing it. 
And, and I did write about this 

1218
01:11:47,160 --> 01:11:50,320
in my article that's published 
on legendary upside, the playoff

1219
01:11:50,320 --> 01:11:53,680
basketball sacrilegious approach
to playoff basketball. 

1220
01:11:55,680 --> 01:12:00,400
I do, I do think that those are 
the circumstances where you've 

1221
01:12:00,400 --> 01:12:03,560
got 5 bye week players. 
So Round 1 is really thin for 

1222
01:12:03,560 --> 01:12:07,080
you where you can kind of break 
structure and and it's it's 

1223
01:12:07,080 --> 01:12:10,720
really like you can kind of use 
Zach Ertz as like your Canary in

1224
01:12:10,720 --> 01:12:13,800
the coal mine where you're like,
all right, I took Jane Daniels, 

1225
01:12:13,800 --> 01:12:16,480
I took Terry Mclaurin, I took 
Brian Robinson. 

1226
01:12:16,800 --> 01:12:20,960
I got, you know, maybe I, I took
like a one off Aaron Jones or 

1227
01:12:21,240 --> 01:12:24,400
not one off Aaron Jones because 
that'd be your other NFC team. 

1228
01:12:24,480 --> 01:12:27,640
Or sure, let's just say I have a
one off Aaron Jones from earlier

1229
01:12:27,920 --> 01:12:30,280
and I'm playing an AFC team to 
the Super Bowl. 

1230
01:12:30,280 --> 01:12:32,360
I've got like a bunch of chiefs 
or whatever. 

1231
01:12:32,360 --> 01:12:35,680
I got a chiefs mega stack. 
If you're sitting there and 

1232
01:12:35,680 --> 01:12:40,360
you're like, oh gosh, do I 
really take Zach Ertz here to 

1233
01:12:40,360 --> 01:12:44,560
stay in structure or do I take 
this juicy JSN or this juicy 

1234
01:12:44,560 --> 01:12:48,320
Mike Evans here instead? 
That's the Canary in the coal 

1235
01:12:48,320 --> 01:12:49,720
mine. 
Like when you're like, should I 

1236
01:12:49,720 --> 01:12:52,480
take Zach Ertz or should I take 
Mike Evans? 

1237
01:12:52,520 --> 01:12:54,960
Like that's how you know it's 
OK. 

1238
01:12:54,960 --> 01:12:56,440
It's OK. 
This is when you break 

1239
01:12:56,440 --> 01:12:59,560
structure. 
So I try really hard not to 

1240
01:12:59,560 --> 01:13:02,920
break structure as much as 
possible, even on those five BI 

1241
01:13:02,920 --> 01:13:06,800
week player teams, because when 
when the stuff does break right 

1242
01:13:06,800 --> 01:13:10,920
for you, when you do get 
Washington upsetting whoever 

1243
01:13:10,920 --> 01:13:13,440
they play in round one, say they
upset the Eagles and they go to 

1244
01:13:13,440 --> 01:13:17,080
round two and all of a sudden 
you just got a four stack A4 

1245
01:13:17,080 --> 01:13:20,680
player stack through to round 
two and you're getting all those

1246
01:13:20,680 --> 01:13:24,480
potential points again. 
Like it's such an enormous 

1247
01:13:24,520 --> 01:13:28,000
advantage on the field. 
And the historical data bears 

1248
01:13:28,000 --> 01:13:32,440
that out too, that I just I want
to lean into it because crazy 

1249
01:13:32,440 --> 01:13:36,600
shit happens, you know, like, 
it's so who who would have said 

1250
01:13:36,600 --> 01:13:39,840
that last season? 
The outcome that you needed was 

1251
01:13:39,840 --> 01:13:43,320
you really needed to play Jake 
Ferguson. 

1252
01:13:43,480 --> 01:13:47,200
You needed the one off Jake 
Ferguson really bad in round 

1253
01:13:47,200 --> 01:13:49,120
one. 
But you shouldn't really draft 

1254
01:13:49,120 --> 01:13:51,000
any other Cowboys. 
You know, you just wanted Jake 

1255
01:13:51,000 --> 01:13:54,800
Ferguson to get you through. 
And like, yeah, Jack Zackers and

1256
01:13:54,800 --> 01:13:58,480
Jake Ferguson are different 
players, but it's like, dude, 

1257
01:13:58,680 --> 01:14:01,440
you can definitely, there's, 
there's an outcome where the 

1258
01:14:01,440 --> 01:14:04,640
Commanders get the upset ertz 
catches a touchdown and gets 

1259
01:14:04,640 --> 01:14:09,160
like 40-50 yards in round one. 
And that, you know, 1011 points 

1260
01:14:09,160 --> 01:14:13,120
is really all that you need to 
sneak A-Team through. 

1261
01:14:13,120 --> 01:14:16,800
He's Ertz isn't the one that's 
carrying you ertz is just the 

1262
01:14:16,800 --> 01:14:21,080
one that's like plugging the 
hole to make sure that, hey, all

1263
01:14:21,080 --> 01:14:23,360
the rest of these guys, they 
went off enough to get me 

1264
01:14:23,360 --> 01:14:25,800
through. 
And Ertz is just here to advance

1265
01:14:25,800 --> 01:14:28,240
a team that otherwise wouldn't 
have advanced without just this 

1266
01:14:28,240 --> 01:14:31,680
little floor performance. 
So that was that was me kind of 

1267
01:14:31,680 --> 01:14:34,480
making both sides of the 
argument, but I do. 

1268
01:14:34,480 --> 01:14:40,480
Think I'm just looking so at the
fantasy pros like projections 

1269
01:14:40,880 --> 01:14:48,000
and I think this is this is that
no, this is yeah, this is 

1270
01:14:48,000 --> 01:14:51,240
standard. 
And so if I'm if I if I change 

1271
01:14:51,240 --> 01:14:55,800
it to half PP or that that might
might make more sense to to 

1272
01:14:55,800 --> 01:14:59,400
reference. 
And so is is projection is 7.9 

1273
01:14:59,400 --> 01:15:04,080
for this week. 
I don't know. 

1274
01:15:04,080 --> 01:15:05,960
I guess that that's not like, 
terrible. 

1275
01:15:06,960 --> 01:15:08,520
Right. 
And that's that's really what 

1276
01:15:08,520 --> 01:15:12,000
I'm saying, like the the 
argument for Zach Ertz is like, 

1277
01:15:12,000 --> 01:15:15,760
you don't need a lot and it it 
can be OK. 

1278
01:15:15,760 --> 01:15:18,840
And if you're already making the
correlated team bet like, you 

1279
01:15:18,840 --> 01:15:21,800
might as well lean. 
Into it, but also but if it's 

1280
01:15:21,800 --> 01:15:25,080
also bad if if the the 
commanders don't get true. 

1281
01:15:25,720 --> 01:15:27,880
Having the Zach Ertz thing seems
bad it. 

1282
01:15:28,080 --> 01:15:31,800
Seems pretty bad, right? 
So yeah, that's there. 

1283
01:15:31,840 --> 01:15:33,520
There are. 
You could certainly make the 

1284
01:15:33,520 --> 01:15:36,400
argument to me, and I wouldn't 
say that it was bad to do a one 

1285
01:15:36,400 --> 01:15:40,840
off in in the instance. 
But it's only because players in

1286
01:15:40,840 --> 01:15:44,240
in in your given structure that 
you're playing for some 

1287
01:15:44,240 --> 01:15:46,840
probability that the that the 
commanders do make the 

1288
01:15:47,080 --> 01:15:51,280
conference championship, which 
yeah, is apparently 14% right 

1289
01:15:51,280 --> 01:15:53,360
now. 
And you can kind of think of 

1290
01:15:53,360 --> 01:15:58,080
this as like by taking a one off
player in round one, like a 

1291
01:15:58,080 --> 01:16:01,840
fifth team, which inherently 
guarantees that you cannot have 

1292
01:16:01,840 --> 01:16:04,920
10 live players in round in the 
conference championship round, 

1293
01:16:04,920 --> 01:16:07,360
which would be the the nut 
outcome. 

1294
01:16:07,840 --> 01:16:11,560
By doing that and taking that 
one off player, you're lowering 

1295
01:16:11,560 --> 01:16:14,520
your ceiling outcome of 10 live 
players in the conference 

1296
01:16:14,520 --> 01:16:17,000
championship, but you're raising
your floor outcome. 

1297
01:16:17,000 --> 01:16:19,840
And it's really what you're 
trading is you're trading the, 

1298
01:16:20,800 --> 01:16:24,320
you know, your additional player
in round 3 and you're saying, 

1299
01:16:24,320 --> 01:16:28,480
hey, it's OK that I'm doing this
because as soon as Round 2 

1300
01:16:28,480 --> 01:16:32,840
happens, I get 5 guaranteed. 
I have 5 players that are 100% 

1301
01:16:32,840 --> 01:16:35,440
to advance to round two because 
I have 5 bye week players, 

1302
01:16:35,560 --> 01:16:37,560
right? 
I find who will be scoring 

1303
01:16:37,560 --> 01:16:39,800
points in Round 2. 
And so that's kind of the way to

1304
01:16:39,800 --> 01:16:41,680
frame it. 
But I I thought it was an 

1305
01:16:41,680 --> 01:16:44,720
interesting spot just because 
I've I've been in situations 

1306
01:16:44,720 --> 01:16:50,400
where Zach Ertz kind of looks 
like an OK pick, but I I'm and 

1307
01:16:50,400 --> 01:16:54,600
debating. 
All right, OK, I got I got one 

1308
01:16:54,600 --> 01:16:57,920
for you. 
OK, Pretend you're drafting a 

1309
01:16:57,920 --> 01:17:01,920
Detroit and Kansas City Super 
Bowl team right now. 

1310
01:17:01,920 --> 01:17:05,800
I won't offer any more clarity 
than that, but you have pieces 

1311
01:17:06,000 --> 01:17:09,240
from Detroit, you have pieces 
from Kansas City, you have. 

1312
01:17:09,240 --> 01:17:12,000
And you're trying to figure out 
how you filled out your your 

1313
01:17:12,000 --> 01:17:14,640
Week 1 lineup? 
Well, no, no, no. 

1314
01:17:14,640 --> 01:17:17,720
I I want to know which tight end
do you prefer because they go 

1315
01:17:17,720 --> 01:17:20,800
basically back-to-back. 
Let's say you're on the clock, 

1316
01:17:20,800 --> 01:17:23,800
you can only take one Sam 
Laporta or Travis Kelsey. 

1317
01:17:24,240 --> 01:17:27,160
It's Kelsey. 
Yeah, I, I agree. 

1318
01:17:27,160 --> 01:17:31,520
If you're playing for the KC 
outcome, then like KC isn't 

1319
01:17:31,520 --> 01:17:32,960
right, right. 
Then it's just. 

1320
01:17:32,960 --> 01:17:36,640
Kelsey KC don't. 
They don't get to the Super Bowl

1321
01:17:36,640 --> 01:17:38,600
unless they get Travis Kelsey 
going. 

1322
01:17:39,160 --> 01:17:42,800
Like Detroit get to the Super 
Bowl so easily without getting 

1323
01:17:42,800 --> 01:17:45,400
Laporta going. 
Yeah, what what do you think 

1324
01:17:45,400 --> 01:17:47,360
about? 
Like if I have Goff as my 

1325
01:17:47,360 --> 01:17:50,240
quarterback, so I'm not 
guaranteeing I, I agree with 

1326
01:17:50,240 --> 01:17:52,480
you. 
Like if I have Mahomes, it's 

1327
01:17:52,520 --> 01:17:57,160
Travis Kelce, you know, But if I
have Goff, I think there's an 

1328
01:17:57,160 --> 01:18:00,840
argument to be made for Laporta 
because you still could play the

1329
01:18:00,840 --> 01:18:05,480
Super Bowl as Lions, Bills and 
have it be a very similar 

1330
01:18:05,480 --> 01:18:09,800
probability as Chiefs, right. 
And and then say like it's OK 

1331
01:18:09,800 --> 01:18:11,280
that I didn't. 
Take, but you're already you're,

1332
01:18:11,280 --> 01:18:13,680
you're already heavy invested 
into the Chiefs. 

1333
01:18:14,400 --> 01:18:18,000
By by the point at which you're 
deciding this, you're not so 

1334
01:18:18,000 --> 01:18:21,480
heavy invested. 
You're you're Jared Goff is your

1335
01:18:21,480 --> 01:18:24,320
second round pick. 
Most likely your first round 

1336
01:18:24,320 --> 01:18:27,000
pick is probably Alin Rah, one 
of the running. 

1337
01:18:27,000 --> 01:18:28,720
Backs. 
So you haven't even decided to 

1338
01:18:28,720 --> 01:18:30,080
do KC yet? 
Yeah. 

1339
01:18:30,080 --> 01:18:34,160
And then your third pick is 
going to be like KC is Kelsey or

1340
01:18:34,160 --> 01:18:35,560
Laporta. 
Maybe you did. 

1341
01:18:35,960 --> 01:18:37,720
Yeah, maybe it's the fourth 
round pick. 

1342
01:18:37,720 --> 01:18:41,040
You just made it through the 
turn and that's that's really 

1343
01:18:41,040 --> 01:18:44,680
where this decision would 
probably come into play is you 

1344
01:18:44,680 --> 01:18:50,840
get something like, you know, 
David Montgomery, Jared Goff, 

1345
01:18:51,480 --> 01:18:57,080
and then your third round pick 
is, you know, maybe you get a 

1346
01:18:57,080 --> 01:19:01,280
Jameson Williams and now you're 
staring down Kelsey or Laporta. 

1347
01:19:01,800 --> 01:19:04,120
So that's. 
You've already you've got, 

1348
01:19:04,120 --> 01:19:06,280
you've got your your Detroit 
stack. 

1349
01:19:07,080 --> 01:19:09,760
I think you just build on it 
with with Laporta. 

1350
01:19:10,320 --> 01:19:15,640
Yeah, so it sounds. 
Like it and this and and give 

1351
01:19:15,680 --> 01:19:19,040
given that context, which is the
most likely context for people 

1352
01:19:19,040 --> 01:19:21,560
drafting. 
I think that we both are in 

1353
01:19:21,560 --> 01:19:25,040
agreement though, that we like 
the Kelsey fantasy points more 

1354
01:19:25,040 --> 01:19:26,960
than we like the Laporta fantasy
points. 

1355
01:19:27,000 --> 01:19:31,920
And if you're in a situation 
where both are are equal, 

1356
01:19:31,920 --> 01:19:34,760
pretend your only Super Bowl 
outcome you're playing for is 

1357
01:19:34,760 --> 01:19:38,920
Detroit KC, then we would both 
say that it's Kelsey, right? 

1358
01:19:39,640 --> 01:19:43,640
Right, right. 
But but that that's going to be 

1359
01:19:43,640 --> 01:19:45,640
a rare scenario, it sounds so 
like. 

1360
01:19:46,400 --> 01:19:48,600
No, there's definitely, I mean, 
'cause there's spots where you 

1361
01:19:48,600 --> 01:19:52,960
might be your your secondary AFC
team, say you've got Lions and 

1362
01:19:52,960 --> 01:19:56,160
you do Chiefs as your primary 
AFC team with the Lions, with 

1363
01:19:56,160 --> 01:19:58,800
Jared Goff. 
Your secondary AFC team could 

1364
01:19:58,800 --> 01:20:01,360
easily be something like the 
Steelers where you're like. 

1365
01:20:02,000 --> 01:20:05,560
Sure, they've got Super Bowl 
odds, but I, I don't believe 

1366
01:20:05,560 --> 01:20:07,440
that they're making the Super 
Bowl and I don't really want to 

1367
01:20:07,440 --> 01:20:09,440
play for like a Steelers Lion 
Super Bowl. 

1368
01:20:09,680 --> 01:20:11,520
So I'm just using it as advance 
rate pieces. 

1369
01:20:11,520 --> 01:20:16,360
So anyway, I, I, I, OK, I keep 
coming into that spot and I 

1370
01:20:16,360 --> 01:20:18,800
thought it was interesting and 
wanted to get your opinion on 

1371
01:20:18,800 --> 01:20:20,040
it, but I think we're, we're 
lock. 

1372
01:20:20,040 --> 01:20:22,920
Step on how we view it, though. 
Yeah, yeah, yeah. 

1373
01:20:23,760 --> 01:20:27,720
And so I don't think there's any
point talking about the backups 

1374
01:20:27,720 --> 01:20:29,120
here. 
Yeah, let's let's hit wide 

1375
01:20:29,120 --> 01:20:34,560
receiver. 
So wide receiver and I I 

1376
01:20:34,560 --> 01:20:38,080
remember you had some notes and 
about. 

1377
01:20:38,080 --> 01:20:41,640
Yeah, to to pivot away from 
playoff basketball for a second.

1378
01:20:41,960 --> 01:20:45,160
I think we just need to talk 
about Jamar Chase because this 

1379
01:20:45,160 --> 01:20:47,400
season is not the Saquon Barkley
season. 

1380
01:20:47,400 --> 01:20:49,320
This is the Jamar Chase season, 
everybody. 

1381
01:20:49,400 --> 01:20:56,320
I mean, if you look at how, like
this guy absolutely smoked every

1382
01:20:56,320 --> 01:21:01,600
other receiver in fantasy points
per game, just absolutely 

1383
01:21:01,600 --> 01:21:04,840
crushed him. 
And he had a higher advance rate

1384
01:21:04,840 --> 01:21:08,480
than Saquon Barkley too. 
And that might some people might

1385
01:21:08,480 --> 01:21:10,520
say, oh, well, it was only a 
little bit like they're 

1386
01:21:10,520 --> 01:21:13,360
basically the same. 
Jamar Chase did it from the 

1387
01:21:13,360 --> 01:21:16,640
first round where Saquon Barkley
did it from the 2-3 turn. 

1388
01:21:16,640 --> 01:21:18,720
Like those are not the same 
thing. 

1389
01:21:18,760 --> 01:21:21,080
You know, having that high of an
advance rate from the first 

1390
01:21:21,080 --> 01:21:25,320
round is absolutely absurd. 
And one of the things that I'm 

1391
01:21:25,320 --> 01:21:28,520
realizing when you look through 
a lot of these high advance rate

1392
01:21:28,520 --> 01:21:32,680
guys, number one, there is a lot
of the correlation of players 

1393
01:21:32,680 --> 01:21:36,240
that are drafted together. 
Players that got more drafted 

1394
01:21:36,360 --> 01:21:38,880
commonly with these high advance
rate players get their advance 

1395
01:21:38,880 --> 01:21:41,160
rates pulled up. 
Which is actually the topic of 

1396
01:21:41,160 --> 01:21:45,680
my dateable project that I did 
last year where I came up with a

1397
01:21:45,680 --> 01:21:48,760
metric called roster agnostic 
advance rate that use the 

1398
01:21:48,760 --> 01:21:52,520
nearest neighbor algorithm to 
extricate the advance rates from

1399
01:21:52,520 --> 01:21:54,680
each other. 
And basically, look at, hey, if 

1400
01:21:54,680 --> 01:21:58,960
these players were just on, you 
know, any old roster, you know, 

1401
01:21:58,960 --> 01:22:01,600
not just the rosters they were 
drafted on, but if you replaced 

1402
01:22:01,600 --> 01:22:04,880
players on every roster and said
they were equally likely to be 

1403
01:22:04,880 --> 01:22:07,920
drafted on any given roster, 
what would their advance rate 

1404
01:22:07,920 --> 01:22:11,640
look like? 
I'm fairly confident that a lot 

1405
01:22:11,640 --> 01:22:14,840
of these highest advance rate 
players this year are being 

1406
01:22:14,840 --> 01:22:18,080
pulled up because of the people 
that they were paired with. 

1407
01:22:18,680 --> 01:22:22,160
But also there is one thing in 
common with them too, and it's 

1408
01:22:22,160 --> 01:22:25,120
that they were some of the 
largest spike week having 

1409
01:22:25,280 --> 01:22:28,800
players like Jamar Chase had 
some of the largest spike weeks 

1410
01:22:28,840 --> 01:22:31,880
all season and he he also 
performed very well. 

1411
01:22:31,880 --> 01:22:34,680
So it makes sense. 
But some of the ones I'm 

1412
01:22:34,680 --> 01:22:38,400
thinking of that later like 
Jerry Judy is one of the highest

1413
01:22:38,400 --> 01:22:42,680
advance rate players this season
and he did nothing for you for 

1414
01:22:42,680 --> 01:22:46,040
the majority of the season. 
And then he had a couple couple 

1415
01:22:46,040 --> 01:22:48,840
good weeks and then he had an 
incredible week. 

1416
01:22:49,120 --> 01:22:52,560
But that incredible week means 
every single team that had Jerry

1417
01:22:52,560 --> 01:22:56,840
Judy that week used him and they
got a big boost from him, right?

1418
01:22:56,840 --> 01:23:01,040
And so it's really that. 
Also, I do think that if you 

1419
01:23:01,040 --> 01:23:04,720
were AI would be pretty 
confident that teams that 

1420
01:23:04,720 --> 01:23:07,920
drafted Jerry Judy were much 
more likely to have heavy 

1421
01:23:07,920 --> 01:23:10,520
running backs early because 
you're forced into these later 

1422
01:23:10,520 --> 01:23:13,040
wide receivers that are kind of 
outside of the typical wide 

1423
01:23:13,040 --> 01:23:15,840
receiver window. 
So I do think you have a lot of 

1424
01:23:15,840 --> 01:23:19,840
that going on where Jerry Judy's
roster agnostic advance rate 

1425
01:23:20,240 --> 01:23:24,560
probably I would say falls a 
decent bit just because of the 

1426
01:23:24,560 --> 01:23:27,200
correlation of being drafted 
with Saquon Barkley. 

1427
01:23:27,880 --> 01:23:31,800
And also the place on the board 
where Jerry Judy went for much 

1428
01:23:31,800 --> 01:23:35,520
of the summer was the same side 
of the board as Saquon Barkley 

1429
01:23:35,640 --> 01:23:37,960
as Jamar Chase. 
So you get a lot of that 

1430
01:23:37,960 --> 01:23:42,480
anchoring effect there. 
Anyway, long and short way to 

1431
01:23:42,480 --> 01:23:47,560
say that Jamar Chase I think is 
probably the one who would have 

1432
01:23:47,560 --> 01:23:50,600
the roster agnostic advance rate
closest to his actual advance 

1433
01:23:50,600 --> 01:23:53,520
rate because he was just an 
absolute freak. 

1434
01:23:53,800 --> 01:23:57,400
The Saquon Barkley will likely 
have a higher roster agnostic 

1435
01:23:57,400 --> 01:24:01,920
advance rate than his actual 
advance rate because there are a

1436
01:24:01,920 --> 01:24:06,520
lot of really poorly constructed
Saquon teams that somehow 

1437
01:24:06,600 --> 01:24:09,920
miraculously did not advance 
even after you know what's 

1438
01:24:09,920 --> 01:24:12,960
likely going to be the single 
season rushing record being 

1439
01:24:13,000 --> 01:24:17,320
posted, right? 
All right, I think we can move 

1440
01:24:17,320 --> 01:24:18,880
on from Chase. 
I just needed to give him his 

1441
01:24:18,880 --> 01:24:20,600
flowers here. 
Yeah, yeah. 

1442
01:24:20,600 --> 01:24:22,560
No, makes sense. 
Makes sense for sure. 

1443
01:24:22,560 --> 01:24:25,680
We we put him on the the Kerber 
page I think. 

1444
01:24:26,160 --> 01:24:29,160
And I've got a question for you 
here. 

1445
01:24:29,200 --> 01:24:31,720
George Pickens has a grade 2 
hamstring strain. 

1446
01:24:32,400 --> 01:24:35,040
I think his status is in doubt 
for this next week. 

1447
01:24:36,120 --> 01:24:39,200
Are we gonna see George Pickens 
in the fantasy playoffs? 

1448
01:24:39,240 --> 01:24:41,680
Not not playoff basketball, but 
fantasy playoffs. 

1449
01:24:41,960 --> 01:24:43,800
No. 
Wow. 

1450
01:24:44,240 --> 01:24:47,480
I don't think so. 
I mean, anything's possible. 

1451
01:24:47,800 --> 01:24:51,000
Anything's possible, but you 
remember how many games that 

1452
01:24:51,000 --> 01:24:52,920
Nico Collins missed? 
Yeah. 

1453
01:24:53,360 --> 01:24:58,680
And it's true, a, a, a grade 2 
hamstring strain is like is no 

1454
01:24:58,680 --> 01:25:03,080
joke. 
And and they just found it out. 

1455
01:25:03,080 --> 01:25:04,600
Like, why wouldn't they put up 
that? 

1456
01:25:04,600 --> 01:25:07,040
Maybe they won't put them on IR 
because it's too close to the 

1457
01:25:07,040 --> 01:25:11,600
end of the year. 
And but like, that's a, that's a

1458
01:25:11,840 --> 01:25:13,880
pretty, pretty lengthy recovery 
time. 

1459
01:25:14,240 --> 01:25:16,520
By lengthy I mean a month. 
Yeah. 

1460
01:25:16,920 --> 01:25:19,680
But follow up question then. 
Are you concerned about him for 

1461
01:25:19,680 --> 01:25:23,240
playoff basketball then? 
You have to be a little bit 

1462
01:25:23,240 --> 01:25:30,280
concerned and I mean, I think so
it's we just had week 14. 

1463
01:25:30,280 --> 01:25:33,040
He missed. 
They just realized that it's 

1464
01:25:33,040 --> 01:25:36,920
it's a grade 2 because it just 
happened on Thursday. 

1465
01:25:36,920 --> 01:25:42,640
So this this Thursday will be a 
week, week will be one week from

1466
01:25:42,640 --> 01:25:52,160
the injury. 
And so, and week 15161718 I, I 

1467
01:25:52,160 --> 01:25:58,520
mean, so 4 weeks takes us 
through week 18 and or, or to, 

1468
01:25:58,560 --> 01:26:01,440
to the end of week 18. 
So he could play technical play 

1469
01:26:01,440 --> 01:26:08,480
that Sunday and week five week 5
and on would be, would be the 

1470
01:26:08,480 --> 01:26:11,680
wild card round. 
I mean, it's not 100%. 

1471
01:26:11,680 --> 01:26:16,760
Probably it is his playing 
probability in in the wild card 

1472
01:26:16,760 --> 01:26:18,920
is probably like 80%, probably a
little bit higher. 

1473
01:26:19,560 --> 01:26:24,120
Yeah, I would assume it's higher
just because if they do hold him

1474
01:26:24,120 --> 01:26:26,960
out that long. 
Right, you can't hold him out 

1475
01:26:26,960 --> 01:26:28,360
from the playoffs. 
Right. 

1476
01:26:28,840 --> 01:26:33,000
The steel hits. 
He's not gonna let him. 

1477
01:26:33,440 --> 01:26:34,800
He's just gonna get on the 
field. 

1478
01:26:35,200 --> 01:26:38,120
But it's the playoffs, you gotta
play. 

1479
01:26:39,000 --> 01:26:41,560
You gotta play cuz what? 
What are you leaving something 

1480
01:26:41,560 --> 01:26:42,880
in the tank for? 
Right. 

1481
01:26:43,000 --> 01:26:48,080
AM, But like it may be at lower 
effectiveness, it may be at 

1482
01:26:48,120 --> 01:26:50,200
greater re injury risk, all that
kind of stuff. 

1483
01:26:50,240 --> 01:26:52,080
Yeah, no, that's a, that's a 
good point. 

1484
01:26:53,560 --> 01:26:56,040
I do think he's still pretty 
good playoff basketball picks 

1485
01:26:56,040 --> 01:27:00,640
because he's pretty cheap. 
But I I am, I'm trying to find a

1486
01:27:00,640 --> 01:27:03,800
way. 
I mean, really what the answer 

1487
01:27:03,800 --> 01:27:06,560
to my question is, because what 
I'm thinking through is like I'm

1488
01:27:06,600 --> 01:27:10,400
just going to have a lot of 
Steelers if I keep, you know, if

1489
01:27:10,400 --> 01:27:13,320
I'm drafting right now, the 
Steelers are really well priced.

1490
01:27:13,320 --> 01:27:16,200
They really helped me get by. 
We teams through like they have 

1491
01:27:16,200 --> 01:27:18,400
high conference championship 
probability. 

1492
01:27:18,720 --> 01:27:20,920
They're pretty easy team to know
who to draft. 

1493
01:27:20,920 --> 01:27:23,400
Like it's George Pickens and 
Naji are really the ones that 

1494
01:27:23,400 --> 01:27:25,560
I'm drafting. 
You know, I'm not doing much 

1495
01:27:25,560 --> 01:27:29,480
else. 
Sometimes I'll do Warren, but I,

1496
01:27:29,480 --> 01:27:33,280
I think the, the thing that I 
want to insulate myself from is 

1497
01:27:33,280 --> 01:27:36,160
I really don't want my whole 
portfolio to live and die by the

1498
01:27:36,160 --> 01:27:38,560
Steelers, even if they are great
values. 

1499
01:27:38,920 --> 01:27:43,160
And the way that you do that is 
simply by waiting, wait to draft

1500
01:27:43,160 --> 01:27:46,440
a little bit because instead of 
having to pay for the Steelers 

1501
01:27:46,440 --> 01:27:50,120
in round five, maybe you make 
some stronger Super Bowl type 

1502
01:27:50,120 --> 01:27:53,320
bets, stronger bets, building 
out your primary teams. 

1503
01:27:53,800 --> 01:27:57,120
And then in the late rounds, you
then get to do like a Seahawks 

1504
01:27:57,120 --> 01:27:59,920
thing or you get to do, you 
know, whoever, or you get to do 

1505
01:27:59,920 --> 01:28:00,720
I. 
Mean the Viking. 

1506
01:28:00,720 --> 01:28:03,000
The Vikings are the same price, 
almost. 

1507
01:28:03,720 --> 01:28:04,720
Right. 
Yeah. 

1508
01:28:05,520 --> 01:28:06,880
People, they're a little bit 
lower. 

1509
01:28:07,960 --> 01:28:10,640
It's yeah, sometimes it just 
doesn't mesh. 

1510
01:28:10,720 --> 01:28:13,440
They they do go a little bit 
before them typically like just.

1511
01:28:13,440 --> 01:28:15,200
Right. 
Yeah, it's a little bit and and 

1512
01:28:15,200 --> 01:28:19,320
then maybe you've already built 
out two AFC teams by that or no 

1513
01:28:19,320 --> 01:28:21,240
NFC teams by that point. 
It exactly. 

1514
01:28:21,240 --> 01:28:24,760
They're not a, they're not a 
true compliment, not compliment 

1515
01:28:26,040 --> 01:28:29,080
and opposite. 
Yeah, the other the other 

1516
01:28:29,080 --> 01:28:32,200
annoying thing about the Vikings
is Jordan Addison gets drafted 

1517
01:28:32,200 --> 01:28:35,320
aggressively now and he was 
free, you know, prior to this 

1518
01:28:35,320 --> 01:28:36,800
last week. 
I could. 

1519
01:28:37,080 --> 01:28:40,800
I would leave Jordan Addison 
until my 10th round pick and 

1520
01:28:40,800 --> 01:28:44,880
have you know Aaron Jones, 
Justin Jefferson, Sam Darnold 

1521
01:28:45,000 --> 01:28:48,120
and my 10th pick Jordan Madison.
No worries, he's gonna he's 

1522
01:28:48,120 --> 01:28:50,200
gonna flatline this week and 
then he'll be free again. 

1523
01:28:50,280 --> 01:28:51,560
And then he'll be free again. 
Yeah. 

1524
01:28:51,680 --> 01:28:53,800
But this is not the week for 
Chief Jordan Addison. 

1525
01:28:53,800 --> 01:28:56,160
Let me tell you. 
He's there's people just one off

1526
01:28:56,160 --> 01:28:58,360
Jordan Addison in the sixth 
round and stuff now. 

1527
01:28:58,360 --> 01:29:00,920
So anyway. 
That isn't fun. 

1528
01:29:02,160 --> 01:29:07,360
OK, I got one for you. 
Another is kind of keeping the 

1529
01:29:07,360 --> 01:29:12,880
theme with George Pickens, but 
Lad Mcconkey, he's very clear he

1530
01:29:12,880 --> 01:29:18,200
is the Chargers wide receiver. 
Like he's not even the Chargers 

1531
01:29:18,200 --> 01:29:20,960
wide receiver. 
He's the Chargers offense at 

1532
01:29:20,960 --> 01:29:23,360
this point. 
Like they're down bad in the 

1533
01:29:23,360 --> 01:29:28,560
running game with no JK Dobbins,
Quinton Johnston, like his hands

1534
01:29:28,560 --> 01:29:31,360
have turned back into stone. 
He had a very brief period where

1535
01:29:31,360 --> 01:29:37,040
he was actually catching things.
It looks so bad for the Chargers

1536
01:29:37,040 --> 01:29:40,920
without Ladd Mcconkey. 
The whole plane is Lad Mcconkey 

1537
01:29:41,440 --> 01:29:45,960
and I'm here to tell you to buy 
the fucking dip on Lad Mcconkey 

1538
01:29:45,960 --> 01:29:49,680
in playoff basketball. 
His injury has kept people off 

1539
01:29:49,680 --> 01:29:51,840
of him. 
I think I got a tenth round Lad 

1540
01:29:51,840 --> 01:29:55,760
Mcconkey share today and 
previously he was going like 7th

1541
01:29:55,840 --> 01:30:00,880
sometimes even sixth round. 
And it's just like such a clean 

1542
01:30:00,880 --> 01:30:03,360
little one off such a clean 
skinny stack. 

1543
01:30:03,360 --> 01:30:06,560
If you need quarterback help for
round one, just do Lad Mcconkey.

1544
01:30:06,560 --> 01:30:09,920
Justin Herbert. 
I mean, do you think I'm crazy, 

1545
01:30:09,920 --> 01:30:12,800
Draco, or is Lad Mcconkey a 
generational wealth opportunity 

1546
01:30:12,800 --> 01:30:17,920
for playoff basketball? 
And I think he's good. 

1547
01:30:19,040 --> 01:30:23,600
So I'm looking at the week to 
week numbers here. 

1548
01:30:23,640 --> 01:30:28,680
I do notice some like it's one 
of those charts. 

1549
01:30:29,480 --> 01:30:34,400
And so you have the weeks where 
he is the offense and then you 

1550
01:30:34,400 --> 01:30:37,720
have the weeks where they'll 
hardly throw in the ball, he's 

1551
01:30:37,720 --> 01:30:42,480
the offense again. 
And his his last game, which was

1552
01:30:42,480 --> 01:30:46,680
in week 13. 
So last last week he had a 48% 

1553
01:30:46,680 --> 01:30:50,720
target sprout run. 
And the week before that it was 

1554
01:30:50,720 --> 01:30:54,120
14%. 
The week that before that it was

1555
01:30:54,120 --> 01:31:00,440
27%, then it was 9%. 
And so I think you, you average 

1556
01:31:00,440 --> 01:31:05,760
it it all out and I'm, I'm gonna
be good and include the 48% in, 

1557
01:31:05,760 --> 01:31:09,240
in the four week average, you 
get 25%, which is, is really 

1558
01:31:09,240 --> 01:31:13,520
good. 
And even if you do six weeks, 

1559
01:31:13,520 --> 01:31:19,200
you're still get to 23%. 
So he's like, he's like a 

1560
01:31:19,200 --> 01:31:22,120
heavily targeted key cog in 
their offense. 

1561
01:31:22,880 --> 01:31:29,440
I, I think that's indisputable. 
And what I I did look at his 

1562
01:31:29,440 --> 01:31:32,040
price, but I don't quite 
remember. 

1563
01:31:32,520 --> 01:31:37,880
And what's his where does he go 
last 22? 

1564
01:31:38,000 --> 01:31:38,440
He. 
He. 

1565
01:31:39,040 --> 01:31:44,280
He slides a bunch. 
So he goes around Keon Coleman, 

1566
01:31:45,040 --> 01:31:53,760
Terry Mclaurin, Rashad Bateman, 
Tim Patrick, and so very, very 

1567
01:31:53,760 --> 01:31:55,720
cheap. 
Very, very cheap he. 

1568
01:31:56,960 --> 01:31:59,840
Yeah, some sometimes undrafted 
right now, you know. 

1569
01:32:00,680 --> 01:32:04,360
So he'll slide that's his ADP. 
But but somebody some some 

1570
01:32:04,360 --> 01:32:07,920
aggressive you, you're the one 
single handles the keeping it up

1571
01:32:08,080 --> 01:32:10,960
at 42 1/2. 
I'm I'm joking. 

1572
01:32:12,400 --> 01:32:16,000
And then you have a 15% 
conference championship 

1573
01:32:16,000 --> 01:32:22,560
probability. 
So, I mean, let me put let let, 

1574
01:32:22,640 --> 01:32:26,520
let me let me I, I know you're 
talking about AFC, I'm talking 

1575
01:32:26,520 --> 01:32:33,440
about AFC versus NFC AM. 
But Seahawks even even with only

1576
01:32:33,440 --> 01:32:36,560
a 68% chance to make the 
playoffs, they have a 17% 

1577
01:32:36,560 --> 01:32:40,840
conference championship. 
They are a higher, they are a 

1578
01:32:40,840 --> 01:32:43,400
higher conference championship 
probability than the Chargers 

1579
01:32:43,400 --> 01:32:48,240
according to this. 
And then JSN is like multiple 

1580
01:32:48,240 --> 01:32:53,400
rounds cheaper than Dan and Ladd
Mcconkey. 

1581
01:32:54,520 --> 01:32:58,800
Yeah, I, I mean, I'm with you 
here that the, the Seahawks are 

1582
01:32:58,800 --> 01:33:01,680
going to be a really, really 
good pick. 

1583
01:33:02,000 --> 01:33:05,800
It's for me, it's basically just
wait until Thursday night. 

1584
01:33:05,840 --> 01:33:08,280
Like they right, right. 
They won't get that much more 

1585
01:33:08,280 --> 01:33:10,080
expensive. 
Like just just wait till 

1586
01:33:10,080 --> 01:33:14,520
Thursday because if the Rams 
lose the Seahawks playoff odds 

1587
01:33:14,520 --> 01:33:17,080
shoot up, right? 
Like that's that's the biggest 

1588
01:33:17,080 --> 01:33:19,080
threat to them right now is the 
Rams. 

1589
01:33:19,320 --> 01:33:21,800
And so you get that information 
and you can hammer it. 

1590
01:33:22,720 --> 01:33:29,040
One thing I will say is the 
Seahawks power ranking is pretty

1591
01:33:29,040 --> 01:33:31,600
strong right now. 
Like they're they're coming in 

1592
01:33:31,600 --> 01:33:34,440
hot. 
If if you were gonna ask. 

1593
01:33:34,440 --> 01:33:37,560
I figured that's why they had 
the the Strong Conference 

1594
01:33:37,640 --> 01:33:39,960
championship. 
If you were gonna ask me which 

1595
01:33:39,960 --> 01:33:45,360
input into The Sims I'm the 
least confident in, it's the 

1596
01:33:45,360 --> 01:33:49,200
Seahawks relative power ranking 
to other teams. 

1597
01:33:49,200 --> 01:33:53,360
So let me let me just give you 
kind of like I'm gonna ask you a

1598
01:33:53,360 --> 01:33:56,600
couple teams and this is purely 
like a real life football. 

1599
01:33:56,600 --> 01:33:59,880
Which team is more likely to win
the game on a neutral field, 

1600
01:34:00,600 --> 01:34:06,880
Steelers or Seahawks? 
And I mean, my gut, says 

1601
01:34:06,880 --> 01:34:09,040
Steelers. 
And and how close? 

1602
01:34:09,440 --> 01:34:17,320
How close would you say it is? 
Based on results, I'd say 

1603
01:34:17,320 --> 01:34:19,840
pretty, pretty close. 
I mean, when you look at the 

1604
01:34:19,840 --> 01:34:22,200
numbers, when you look at like, 
who they played, who they've 

1605
01:34:22,200 --> 01:34:28,800
beaten, and like, didn't they 
just fucking wipe the floor with

1606
01:34:28,800 --> 01:34:32,360
the Cardinals? 
Yeah, like they obliterated 

1607
01:34:32,360 --> 01:34:35,560
them. 
And that Cardinals, yeah, that's

1608
01:34:35,560 --> 01:34:38,920
what's really doing it is their 
strength of victory was 

1609
01:34:38,960 --> 01:34:42,280
tremendous. 
Like, I mean, it was a shit 

1610
01:34:42,280 --> 01:34:45,600
kicking, right? 
It's not pretty, you know, And 

1611
01:34:45,600 --> 01:34:49,640
so that's that's what did a lot 
of the heavy lifting here to 

1612
01:34:49,640 --> 01:34:51,520
really rock at the. 
Seahawks. 

1613
01:34:51,560 --> 01:34:53,880
The 49ers. 
So. 

1614
01:34:53,920 --> 01:34:57,280
So here's Here's another one. 
Seahawks. 

1615
01:34:57,400 --> 01:35:03,280
Vikings. 
And that feels, I mean, that 

1616
01:35:03,280 --> 01:35:07,200
feels close. 
So we have the Seahawks ahead of

1617
01:35:07,200 --> 01:35:13,160
the Vikings by about as much as 
we have the Seahawks behind the 

1618
01:35:13,200 --> 01:35:16,560
Eagles. 
Does that kind of jive or? 

1619
01:35:17,120 --> 01:35:21,920
So so say that again. 
We have the Seahawks as stronger

1620
01:35:21,920 --> 01:35:26,360
than the Vikings by about the 
same amount that we have the 

1621
01:35:26,360 --> 01:35:28,600
Eagles stronger than the 
Seahawks. 

1622
01:35:30,040 --> 01:35:32,960
Yeah, that it doesn't. 
It doesn't feel right. 

1623
01:35:33,480 --> 01:35:36,520
If the Seahawks should feel like
a touch hot to me right now. 

1624
01:35:36,520 --> 01:35:41,960
So that's, that's my, you know, 
and and again, like, I think 

1625
01:35:41,960 --> 01:35:46,680
our, our outputs for this are 
pretty much bang on in line with

1626
01:35:46,680 --> 01:35:50,120
a lot of the market. 
So like if you looked at ESP NS 

1627
01:35:50,120 --> 01:35:53,360
playoff probabilities, if you 
looked at anywhere that's doing 

1628
01:35:53,360 --> 01:35:58,120
playoff probabilities, we're 
not, we're not off on on most of

1629
01:35:58,120 --> 01:36:00,560
these things and we're, we're 
using different inputs than 

1630
01:36:00,560 --> 01:36:02,840
them. 
So that always feels good when 

1631
01:36:02,840 --> 01:36:05,000
you can have a slightly 
different process and get to 

1632
01:36:05,000 --> 01:36:08,800
similar results as as places 
that you think are are probably 

1633
01:36:08,800 --> 01:36:12,880
doing a pretty good job. 
So I I feel mostly good about 

1634
01:36:12,880 --> 01:36:16,240
it, But the one that I think is 
the most fragile is the 

1635
01:36:16,240 --> 01:36:18,480
Seahawks, how strong we have 
them as a. 

1636
01:36:18,480 --> 01:36:21,760
Team Yeah, yeah, I'm looking, 
I'm just looking at alternative 

1637
01:36:21,760 --> 01:36:30,920
elos and and they have the 
Seahawks as good and but just 

1638
01:36:30,920 --> 01:36:33,640
below the Packers, just below 
the Texans. 

1639
01:36:34,400 --> 01:36:38,600
Oh yeah, the Texans are not in 
the same universe in in our 

1640
01:36:38,600 --> 01:36:40,680
stuff. 
The Texans are like worse than 

1641
01:36:40,680 --> 01:36:43,160
the Bengals in our stuff. 
Oh, really? 

1642
01:36:43,360 --> 01:36:46,800
Yeah, worse than the Broncos. 
Well, they have the Texans as 

1643
01:36:47,760 --> 01:36:49,560
they have the actually. 
No, they have them. 

1644
01:36:50,040 --> 01:36:52,080
This isn't sorted properly, God 
damn it. 

1645
01:36:52,800 --> 01:36:55,600
And I was like, wow, that's a, 
that's a big deviation. 

1646
01:36:55,600 --> 01:36:58,160
Or they have them right next to 
the Chargers, Chargers and 

1647
01:36:58,160 --> 01:37:00,640
Broncos. 
Yeah, Chargers and Broncos and 

1648
01:37:00,640 --> 01:37:03,000
Texans are all all basically the
same. 

1649
01:37:03,080 --> 01:37:05,160
Chargers, Bengals, Broncos, 
Texans all. 

1650
01:37:05,160 --> 01:37:07,520
Yeah, Yeah, they have. 
They have them in that in that 

1651
01:37:07,520 --> 01:37:11,400
tier with the Tex just just 
ahead of the Texans, just ahead 

1652
01:37:11,400 --> 01:37:14,560
of the Bucks, just behind the 
Chargers, just behind the the 

1653
01:37:14,640 --> 01:37:17,600
the Broncos. 
Yeah, Steelers and Seahawks 

1654
01:37:17,600 --> 01:37:19,080
feels. 
That feels more right. 

1655
01:37:19,760 --> 01:37:23,080
Steelers and Seahawks are like a
little mini tier for us and you 

1656
01:37:23,080 --> 01:37:26,080
could say that the Chiefs are 
kind of like the bottom of that 

1657
01:37:26,080 --> 01:37:28,000
tier too. 
The Chiefs are lower than the 

1658
01:37:28,000 --> 01:37:30,800
Seahawks though, which like 
based on what we've seen from 

1659
01:37:30,800 --> 01:37:34,120
the Chiefs, kind of feels not 
that unreasonable. 

1660
01:37:34,320 --> 01:37:37,680
And the Vikings and Chiefs are 
are pretty close as well, so. 

1661
01:37:38,160 --> 01:37:40,880
I, I think, I think you're right
that the Seahawks are coming out

1662
01:37:40,880 --> 01:37:42,920
too hot. 
There's a little like a like a 

1663
01:37:42,920 --> 01:37:44,880
touch. 
I don't think it's by a lot. 

1664
01:37:44,880 --> 01:37:48,800
So it's not like in my opinion 
it's not screwing up the the 

1665
01:37:48,800 --> 01:37:53,080
output by a ton, but if you. 
They probably go from they 

1666
01:37:53,080 --> 01:37:56,640
probably what what do you, what 
do we have them or you have them

1667
01:37:56,680 --> 01:38:00,840
17. 
They should probably be at a 14%

1668
01:38:00,840 --> 01:38:04,520
conference championship. 
Yeah, I'd say 1415 probably. 

1669
01:38:05,320 --> 01:38:10,920
And then that jumps to like 20 
ish with a Rams law. 

1670
01:38:12,720 --> 01:38:15,920
Yeah, they're, yeah, I think 15 
is probably about right. 

1671
01:38:16,600 --> 01:38:19,800
So we're we're just a touch like
a shade hot on the Seahawks. 

1672
01:38:19,800 --> 01:38:24,000
But that is something that I I 
try to keep an eye on to see. 

1673
01:38:24,120 --> 01:38:30,080
If we have, but I still like 
that that still makes me believe

1674
01:38:30,080 --> 01:38:33,400
that they're the same. 
They're they're basically the 

1675
01:38:33,400 --> 01:38:37,480
same tiers, the Chargers, unless
you're under you're you're 

1676
01:38:37,480 --> 01:38:42,360
you're low on the chargers. 
The, the only reason that I am 

1677
01:38:42,360 --> 01:38:45,000
saying that I'm holding off on 
Seahawks as opposed to Chargers 

1678
01:38:45,000 --> 01:38:48,160
right now is Chargers are 89% to
make the playoffs. 

1679
01:38:48,480 --> 01:38:52,280
And Seahawks, there's a very 
binary thing about to happen on 

1680
01:38:52,280 --> 01:38:53,680
Thursday night. 
The Rams win. 

1681
01:38:53,680 --> 01:38:56,480
The Rams lose Rams. 
Win and the price won't 

1682
01:38:56,560 --> 01:38:58,800
efficiently and. 
Price won't Price won't move 

1683
01:38:58,800 --> 01:39:02,240
right. 
So the Rams win and all of a 

1684
01:39:02,240 --> 01:39:06,800
sudden the Seahawks playoff odds
go down, Rams lose and all of a 

1685
01:39:06,800 --> 01:39:09,240
sudden the Seahawks playoff odds
skyrocket. 

1686
01:39:09,360 --> 01:39:12,960
And so that's the thing that I'm
really waiting on. 

1687
01:39:13,480 --> 01:39:17,600
And and when they, if the Rams 
do lose, then all of a sudden 

1688
01:39:18,080 --> 01:39:19,960
Seattle's probably my favorite 
click. 

1689
01:39:20,000 --> 01:39:22,360
I, I just like hammer it until 
right. 

1690
01:39:22,760 --> 01:39:25,800
The the scary thing though, is 
like, do you take Kenneth 

1691
01:39:25,800 --> 01:39:27,600
Walker? 
Do you take Zach Charbonnet? 

1692
01:39:27,920 --> 01:39:30,680
Like the thing that I really 
dislike is when there's a team 

1693
01:39:30,680 --> 01:39:35,640
where I can't get both, both 
skill positions that I can't get

1694
01:39:35,640 --> 01:39:37,720
running back and wide receiver 
for them. 

1695
01:39:38,000 --> 01:39:41,160
Because you do really want to 
consolidate your bets onto just 

1696
01:39:41,160 --> 01:39:42,880
a couple teams and playoff 
basketball. 

1697
01:39:42,880 --> 01:39:46,040
So having a team where it's 
like, oh, this team is only for 

1698
01:39:46,040 --> 01:39:48,560
if you need wide receiver help 
or only if if you need running 

1699
01:39:48,560 --> 01:39:50,800
back help does feel a little 
bad. 

1700
01:39:51,960 --> 01:39:55,280
But that is. 
Right, Worth thinking through, 

1701
01:39:56,400 --> 01:39:57,800
right? 
Yeah. 

1702
01:39:57,800 --> 01:40:02,280
I mean, yeah, you're, so you're 
already, you're already right 

1703
01:40:02,280 --> 01:40:05,360
now you're already taking 
additional risks that they don't

1704
01:40:05,360 --> 01:40:11,560
make the playoffs, right, which 
may Vanquish on Thursday, but 

1705
01:40:11,800 --> 01:40:14,920
you can't compound it with with 
running back playing risk. 

1706
01:40:15,640 --> 01:40:18,040
Yeah, that's pretty, pretty 
spooky to me. 

1707
01:40:20,280 --> 01:40:23,800
All right, let's. 
Let's move on to the next chart.

1708
01:40:23,880 --> 01:40:26,720
Yeah, I was just looking if 
there were any more notes that I

1709
01:40:26,720 --> 01:40:28,360
had. 
Yeah, let's next chart here. 

1710
01:40:31,240 --> 01:40:35,400
So man, I mean, we talked a 
little bit about the Bucks, but 

1711
01:40:35,400 --> 01:40:39,040
Mike Evans seems like a super 
strong playoff basketball pick 

1712
01:40:39,160 --> 01:40:41,600
to me right now. 
The Bucks are kind of through 

1713
01:40:41,600 --> 01:40:44,920
that threshold where they feel 
safe enough that I'm willing to 

1714
01:40:44,920 --> 01:40:47,400
draft them here, I don't really 
think. 

1715
01:40:47,400 --> 01:40:50,480
They're the only the note that 
that screams to me. 

1716
01:40:50,480 --> 01:40:53,200
So Nico obviously insane, insane
pick. 

1717
01:40:54,360 --> 01:40:58,240
Really excited to get them. 
True in the in the basketball 

1718
01:40:58,240 --> 01:41:04,800
playoffs, but awful, awful pick 
in in in playoff basketball. 

1719
01:41:05,600 --> 01:41:07,320
He's just too expensive. 
He. 

1720
01:41:08,000 --> 01:41:13,520
He's 22.3 When you're talking 
you're talking and you're 

1721
01:41:13,520 --> 01:41:17,400
comparing them like you you you 
just said they're ELO is 

1722
01:41:17,400 --> 01:41:19,800
similar. 
Like actually you said it's it's

1723
01:41:19,800 --> 01:41:23,360
less than the Bengals. 
Yeah, they're, they are, I 

1724
01:41:23,400 --> 01:41:27,040
believe. 
Yeah, one or five, five ELO 

1725
01:41:27,040 --> 01:41:28,600
points lower than the Bengals 
here. 

1726
01:41:31,760 --> 01:41:34,320
And. 
So yeah, when you believe the. 

1727
01:41:34,320 --> 01:41:39,160
16% conference championship 
versus 14 for the Commanders. 

1728
01:41:43,240 --> 01:41:47,120
Yeah, I mean the MM Evans, like 
if you're telling me that I can 

1729
01:41:47,120 --> 01:41:50,360
get Mike Evans for free in the 
last round or I have to pay a 

1730
01:41:50,360 --> 01:41:54,000
premium, my my opportunity cost 
for taking Nico Collins is I 

1731
01:41:54,000 --> 01:41:57,600
miss out on like a premium piece
from a Super Bowl team that I'm 

1732
01:41:57,600 --> 01:41:59,560
building. 
I'm missing out on Travis Kelsey

1733
01:41:59,640 --> 01:42:00,680
to take. 
You're missing out. 

1734
01:42:00,760 --> 01:42:02,000
Yeah. 
Or Justin Jefferson. 

1735
01:42:02,000 --> 01:42:06,960
Justin Jefferson, Who like 
Justin Jefferson, his team, you 

1736
01:42:06,960 --> 01:42:09,840
know, has a 23% conference 
championship probability, 

1737
01:42:10,120 --> 01:42:14,000
Houston's down at 16%. 
But we just said like we hey, we

1738
01:42:14,000 --> 01:42:18,000
think Minnesota or IKB would be 
that Minnesota might even be 

1739
01:42:18,000 --> 01:42:21,920
closer to that log jam of that 
30% cluster, right? 

1740
01:42:21,960 --> 01:42:25,520
And and you know the the one 
thing I will say about Houston. 

1741
01:42:25,520 --> 01:42:28,880
And the Vikings have a 4%, it's 
low, but a 4% one seat 

1742
01:42:28,880 --> 01:42:32,480
probability, right? 
That would be insane. 

1743
01:42:33,600 --> 01:42:38,840
Yeah, the the one thing I'll say
about Houston is I am interested

1744
01:42:38,840 --> 01:42:40,520
to see how they look coming out 
of the buy. 

1745
01:42:40,800 --> 01:42:43,560
I do think that teams like 
Houston and Baltimore with this 

1746
01:42:43,560 --> 01:42:49,040
buy might come out in a a really
good situation for the playoffs 

1747
01:42:49,040 --> 01:42:51,120
where they got rest at the right
time. 

1748
01:42:51,320 --> 01:42:54,720
They were able to self scout and
evaluate what they're doing and 

1749
01:42:54,720 --> 01:42:57,680
get right for the playoffs, you 
know, at at the right time. 

1750
01:42:58,280 --> 01:43:04,040
And I could certainly see 
Houston leaning more into like a

1751
01:43:04,040 --> 01:43:06,360
pass first approach. 
We've seen them be doing that 

1752
01:43:06,480 --> 01:43:09,680
now that Nico's back, they've 
been less run heavy, they've 

1753
01:43:09,680 --> 01:43:14,800
been running less on 1st down, 
which is a big relief for anyone

1754
01:43:14,800 --> 01:43:17,000
who's rooting for Houston to do 
well. 

1755
01:43:17,600 --> 01:43:25,200
And so anyway, I'm, I just, I 
want to keep all these things 

1756
01:43:25,200 --> 01:43:29,560
at, because when you're doing 
modeling stuff like this, like 

1757
01:43:29,960 --> 01:43:33,280
you've got all of your inputs, 
but there's, there's just some 

1758
01:43:33,280 --> 01:43:35,640
things that are really hard to 
capture in the inputs. 

1759
01:43:35,640 --> 01:43:39,240
And so by remaining plugged in 
and like having understanding 

1760
01:43:39,240 --> 01:43:41,560
the context of these teams, 
like, hey, Baltimore and Houston

1761
01:43:41,560 --> 01:43:43,800
just had the buy. 
Like Baltimore's got some guys 

1762
01:43:43,800 --> 01:43:45,480
that are coming back from injury
and they could be getting 

1763
01:43:45,480 --> 01:43:47,840
healthy. 
Houston has kind of like shifted

1764
01:43:47,840 --> 01:43:50,600
their identity a little bit 
since Nico has come back and 

1765
01:43:50,600 --> 01:43:52,960
been healthy. 
And like, so you get all these 

1766
01:43:53,040 --> 01:43:56,520
factors that are really hard to 
capture in a model where I do 

1767
01:43:56,520 --> 01:43:59,120
just want to kind of hold them 
to my head and understand like 

1768
01:43:59,400 --> 01:44:02,240
where the fragility is on each 
of these things. 

1769
01:44:02,360 --> 01:44:05,800
And, and so I think Houston 
could surprise us to the 

1770
01:44:05,800 --> 01:44:07,720
positive. 
I think Baltimore could surprise

1771
01:44:07,720 --> 01:44:09,800
us to the positive. 
I think the Vikings could 

1772
01:44:09,800 --> 01:44:12,080
surprise us to the positive. 
We're probably a little hot on 

1773
01:44:12,080 --> 01:44:15,080
Seattle, you know, So those are 
those are the things that I'm 

1774
01:44:15,080 --> 01:44:17,400
just trying to like keep in my 
head and keep in mind. 

1775
01:44:19,160 --> 01:44:21,440
And so I think that having 
context like that is pretty 

1776
01:44:21,440 --> 01:44:23,640
important as you're thinking 
through this stuff and like 

1777
01:44:23,640 --> 01:44:26,720
trying to understand the range 
of outcomes and how things can 

1778
01:44:26,720 --> 01:44:30,960
break for you. 
So it's a it is an interesting 

1779
01:44:30,960 --> 01:44:35,520
spot, but I mean, certainly, 
certainly the Ravens and the 

1780
01:44:35,520 --> 01:44:39,560
Texans are overpriced in playoff
best all right now, which does 

1781
01:44:39,560 --> 01:44:44,840
make it very hard to want to IKB
that type of stuff, right And 

1782
01:44:44,840 --> 01:44:48,520
and say like, well, I I. 
Think the market is IK being in?

1783
01:44:48,880 --> 01:44:50,840
It's IK being it too hard, 
right? 

1784
01:44:50,840 --> 01:44:52,800
It's like there's there's meat 
on the bone. 

1785
01:44:52,800 --> 01:44:54,760
There's some upside to to have 
here. 

1786
01:44:54,760 --> 01:44:58,800
That's hard to, but I think it's
it's one thing to IKB and it's 

1787
01:44:58,800 --> 01:45:07,080
contrarian and but then IKB and 
it's consensus, it's like a 

1788
01:45:07,080 --> 01:45:09,960
double whammy. 
Yeah, I KB. 

1789
01:45:10,560 --> 01:45:16,920
I KB contrarian you get paid off
if you're right, whereas IKB 

1790
01:45:16,920 --> 01:45:21,160
consensus just means you, you've
just met the baseline for your, 

1791
01:45:22,400 --> 01:45:25,320
for your, for your, your your 
extra price. 

1792
01:45:25,560 --> 01:45:28,680
It it would be like this last 
week if instead of Zach 

1793
01:45:28,680 --> 01:45:32,000
Charbonnet being the largest 
chalk running back, it was 

1794
01:45:32,000 --> 01:45:34,600
Braylon Allen is the biggest 
chalk running back. 

1795
01:45:34,840 --> 01:45:38,120
And everyone knew that the 
projection was favoring 

1796
01:45:38,120 --> 01:45:40,280
Charbonnet. 
It's like, yeah, Charbonnet 

1797
01:45:40,280 --> 01:45:43,240
projects for two more points 
than Braylon Allen or three more

1798
01:45:43,240 --> 01:45:45,680
points than Braylon Allen. 
And Braylon Allen's coming in 

1799
01:45:45,680 --> 01:45:48,440
with 50% own and Charbonnet's 
coming in 10% own. 

1800
01:45:48,640 --> 01:45:52,000
And you're like, I'm slamming 
Braylon Allen, baby, like. 

1801
01:45:52,280 --> 01:45:54,720
Right, I think these projections
are wrong. 

1802
01:45:55,040 --> 01:45:57,600
Yeah. 
And it's like, yeah, you can and

1803
01:45:57,600 --> 01:46:00,800
you should like where you have, 
where you can identify fragility

1804
01:46:01,000 --> 01:46:05,280
and and have like a either 
you've got alternate inputs that

1805
01:46:05,280 --> 01:46:10,080
you're using or you have, you 
know, a, a, a reasonable logical

1806
01:46:10,080 --> 01:46:13,160
argument for why something might
be different than what a model 

1807
01:46:13,160 --> 01:46:16,680
output is telling you. 
Like it's OK to lean into that 

1808
01:46:16,680 --> 01:46:19,280
as long as you're confident in 
either your inputs to what 

1809
01:46:19,280 --> 01:46:22,240
you're doing or, or you have, 
you know, a logical reason 

1810
01:46:22,240 --> 01:46:24,320
behind that. 
It's OK to lean into that. 

1811
01:46:24,560 --> 01:46:28,160
When it really becomes less OK 
is like you said, the market's 

1812
01:46:28,160 --> 01:46:30,760
already doing that for you and 
they're they're doing it too 

1813
01:46:30,760 --> 01:46:34,760
aggressively so. 
Right you, you, you can, you can

1814
01:46:34,760 --> 01:46:39,080
not. 
IKB and be a contrarian is even 

1815
01:46:39,080 --> 01:46:41,640
better. 
Yeah, yeah. 

1816
01:46:43,240 --> 01:46:44,840
OK. 
Let's move on to a couple other 

1817
01:46:44,840 --> 01:46:48,520
quick notes here. 
Yeah, touch on the 49ers guys. 

1818
01:46:48,520 --> 01:46:52,280
So you get the Debo squeaky 
wheel stuff happening on 

1819
01:46:52,280 --> 01:46:54,920
Twitter. 
Debo says he's not struggling, 

1820
01:46:54,920 --> 01:46:59,720
he's just not getting the ball. 
Met with a community note on 

1821
01:46:59,720 --> 01:47:02,960
Twitter that said he's leading 
the team in drops. 

1822
01:47:02,960 --> 01:47:06,640
He is actually struggling. 
George Kittle came out. 

1823
01:47:06,640 --> 01:47:09,600
NFL player getting community 
note is all timer. 

1824
01:47:09,760 --> 01:47:12,640
It was it was rough. 
George Kittle did come out in 

1825
01:47:12,640 --> 01:47:16,280
defense of his boy and said he 
expected a big game from Debo 

1826
01:47:16,520 --> 01:47:19,400
this Thursday. 
I mean, it does seem like an all

1827
01:47:19,400 --> 01:47:21,920
time squeaky wheel spot. 
The other one I'm interested in 

1828
01:47:21,920 --> 01:47:25,640
is Joan Jennings, who looks more
and more like the best wide 

1829
01:47:25,640 --> 01:47:29,520
receiver on the 49ers right now.
So I'm interested in your 

1830
01:47:29,520 --> 01:47:31,320
thoughts on these 49ers 
receivers. 

1831
01:47:31,320 --> 01:47:34,400
How is it going to play out for 
the rest of the season and also 

1832
01:47:34,400 --> 01:47:36,640
what do you? 
Expect can I just, can I just 

1833
01:47:36,640 --> 01:47:39,200
talk my bags and and say it's 
just George Gitto? 

1834
01:47:39,720 --> 01:47:41,240
Am I allowed to do that? 
Yeah. 

1835
01:47:41,800 --> 01:47:44,680
And no, that that is purely 
purely bag talking. 

1836
01:47:44,680 --> 01:47:51,320
That's that's what I want. 
And so if we're looking at Debo 

1837
01:47:52,360 --> 01:47:59,560
and he had he, he had a rough 
game of only two targets and 

1838
01:48:00,360 --> 01:48:05,920
he's had a couple of rough games
and but he's had some solid 

1839
01:48:05,920 --> 01:48:14,080
games too. 
And so he had let me see where 

1840
01:48:14,080 --> 01:48:17,880
where do I get yards? 
You had a hundred 100 yard game 

1841
01:48:18,280 --> 01:48:25,880
in week 671 yard game in week 
862 yard game week 10110 yard 

1842
01:48:25,920 --> 01:48:32,680
game Week 2. 
It clear you down here, but 

1843
01:48:33,240 --> 01:48:35,800
still there is still some upside
there. 

1844
01:48:36,760 --> 01:48:42,480
It kind of, it kind of is 
frustrating that that they 

1845
01:48:42,480 --> 01:48:45,760
can't, that he hasn't been able 
to get going just because the 

1846
01:48:45,760 --> 01:48:51,800
talent has been so, so strong. 
I guess my question is how much 

1847
01:48:51,800 --> 01:48:56,400
credence do we put on like the 
the overweighting feels like an 

1848
01:48:56,400 --> 01:49:03,400
explanation of a downtrend. 
Like are there actual signs 

1849
01:49:03,400 --> 01:49:07,600
other than like first stats is, 
is there signs that he's 

1850
01:49:07,600 --> 01:49:10,880
overweight? 
Like has that been an NFL Media 

1851
01:49:10,880 --> 01:49:15,400
speculation thing or is that 
just us saying, oh, he's playing

1852
01:49:15,400 --> 01:49:19,320
bad, he must be fat? 
I don't think there's anything 

1853
01:49:19,640 --> 01:49:22,160
to that. 
I, I don't know man. 

1854
01:49:22,240 --> 01:49:28,240
I, I tend to just kind of block 
that out, you know, sweaty, 

1855
01:49:28,240 --> 01:49:33,680
sweaty basement dwelling virgins
calling elite .001% athlete fat.

1856
01:49:34,160 --> 01:49:37,920
Just I tend to block that out as
a noise. 

1857
01:49:39,040 --> 01:49:42,840
I mean, Debo is like like you 
just said, like obviously elite 

1858
01:49:43,240 --> 01:49:45,360
because he plays in the NFL, 
He's one of the best NFL 

1859
01:49:45,360 --> 01:49:49,320
players, but he's also like has 
been an elite NFL player, right?

1860
01:49:51,120 --> 01:49:57,840
And it he he like if you're 
talking about single week stuff,

1861
01:49:58,280 --> 01:50:02,080
does feel pretty strong. 
Yeah, I'm, I'm interested in 

1862
01:50:02,080 --> 01:50:04,600
him. 
I, I don't know for like 

1863
01:50:04,600 --> 01:50:09,680
showdown this week how much 
ownership he'll be garnering, if

1864
01:50:09,680 --> 01:50:13,040
people will really buy into the 
squeaky wheel stuff or if 

1865
01:50:13,040 --> 01:50:16,280
they'll just be slaves to the 
game log and not really want to 

1866
01:50:16,280 --> 01:50:19,040
play him. 
I mean, I think a lot of it can 

1867
01:50:19,040 --> 01:50:24,640
probably be explained by the guy
was hurt early and he also had a

1868
01:50:24,640 --> 01:50:27,400
really bad case of pneumonia 
that landed him in the hospital.

1869
01:50:27,400 --> 01:50:31,960
Like, I mean, that that seems 
like enough to, you know, have 

1870
01:50:32,040 --> 01:50:34,520
you ever, have you ever had 
pneumonia so bad that you were 

1871
01:50:34,520 --> 01:50:36,280
in the hospital? 
Like never. 

1872
01:50:36,720 --> 01:50:39,520
Your lung function's not great 
for a little bit afterwards. 

1873
01:50:39,560 --> 01:50:41,240
Yeah. 
A lot of a lot of damage to your

1874
01:50:41,240 --> 01:50:42,680
lungs, like. 
Right. 

1875
01:50:43,200 --> 01:50:45,960
And you do actually use the you 
know, I know that might be a 

1876
01:50:45,960 --> 01:50:49,200
foreign concept to many of the, 
the people that are out there 

1877
01:50:49,200 --> 01:50:52,200
calling Debo Samuel fat. 
But to those of you that haven't

1878
01:50:52,200 --> 01:50:55,080
experienced cardio in the last, 
you know, couple decades, like 

1879
01:50:55,080 --> 01:50:57,520
you do use your lungs when 
you're running around on a 

1880
01:50:57,520 --> 01:51:00,840
football field like those are. 
Those are, yeah, those are 

1881
01:51:00,840 --> 01:51:03,000
important. 
Able to oxygenate your blood 

1882
01:51:03,000 --> 01:51:04,680
matters. 
When you're in the cold. 

1883
01:51:05,000 --> 01:51:08,560
Yeah, yeah, you know, just in 
athletics, you you do actually 

1884
01:51:08,560 --> 01:51:13,160
need to oxygenate your blood. 
So shocking news, I know to a 

1885
01:51:13,160 --> 01:51:16,520
lot of couch locked people out 
there calling Dito Samuel fat. 

1886
01:51:17,080 --> 01:51:21,440
I yeah, I have no, no patience 
for anyone calling an NFL player

1887
01:51:21,440 --> 01:51:27,320
fat unless it is Eddie Lacy. 
And he's literally posting 

1888
01:51:27,320 --> 01:51:30,040
pictures of him like 
shithousing, you know, 5 LB bags

1889
01:51:30,040 --> 01:51:33,440
of gummy bears and, you know, 
showing pictures of him crushing

1890
01:51:33,720 --> 01:51:36,560
like a Chinese take out for a 
family of four. 

1891
01:51:36,560 --> 01:51:40,280
Like when, when there is 
verifiable proof and the player 

1892
01:51:40,280 --> 01:51:43,960
themself is telling you like, Oh
yeah, like I gained a lot of 

1893
01:51:43,960 --> 01:51:45,960
weight this year. 
In fact, the coach told me I 

1894
01:51:45,960 --> 01:51:48,080
needed to lose like 30 lbs 
coming in. 

1895
01:51:48,520 --> 01:51:51,560
Then you're allowed to call the 
guy when the guy himself has 

1896
01:51:51,560 --> 01:51:54,880
told you he's fat. 
Then it's OK when you're just 

1897
01:51:54,880 --> 01:51:58,160
like, Debo Samuel didn't score 
enough fantasy points for my 

1898
01:51:58,160 --> 01:52:01,000
team. 
Like I don't think that you can 

1899
01:52:01,000 --> 01:52:03,720
call the guy fat. 
Right. 

1900
01:52:03,720 --> 01:52:07,160
I'm saying he I don't think 
anybody who said he's fat, 

1901
01:52:07,160 --> 01:52:13,040
people have said he's like too 
overweight for an NFL athlete. 

1902
01:52:14,560 --> 01:52:21,440
And but it does, it does strike 
me as like a post fact after the

1903
01:52:21,440 --> 01:52:26,240
event explanation rather than we
have some evidence of this. 

1904
01:52:26,600 --> 01:52:30,200
And therefore like it's not an 
evidence based thing and like 

1905
01:52:30,200 --> 01:52:33,040
we've seen people are just 
explaining something after the 

1906
01:52:33,040 --> 01:52:36,600
fact. 
Yeah, yeah, I I agree. 

1907
01:52:37,720 --> 01:52:40,880
All right, let me let's see if 
there were any other notes I had

1908
01:52:40,880 --> 01:52:44,720
on this wide receiver chart. 
Oh, we got a Tyree Hill game. 

1909
01:52:44,920 --> 01:52:46,680
He did Tyree Hill stuff. 
What do you know? 

1910
01:52:46,680 --> 01:52:51,880
He wasn't dead. 
I mean, I I certainly think that

1911
01:52:52,360 --> 01:52:56,560
the wrist injury probably was 
hampering him and probably is 

1912
01:52:56,560 --> 01:52:59,880
still hampering him. 
But I mean he's still Tyree 

1913
01:52:59,880 --> 01:53:02,600
kill. 
He still went out there and 

1914
01:53:02,600 --> 01:53:06,600
crushed. 
So nice to see. 

1915
01:53:06,680 --> 01:53:10,880
Probably not a you know, I guess
there there could be a little 

1916
01:53:10,880 --> 01:53:13,280
little actionable info take away
from this. 

1917
01:53:13,280 --> 01:53:17,280
Like if you're in, you know, 
FFPC Sprint and you've got Tyree

1918
01:53:17,280 --> 01:53:22,160
kill, like he's definitely he's 
definitely on the menu to play 

1919
01:53:22,160 --> 01:53:24,480
if you were in a circumstance 
where you could have him on your

1920
01:53:24,480 --> 01:53:28,960
bench, but I would assume that 
most people just were in a spot 

1921
01:53:28,960 --> 01:53:30,520
where they had to be starting 
him anyway. 

1922
01:53:31,720 --> 01:53:34,880
Right. 
And I think, yeah, I think you 

1923
01:53:34,880 --> 01:53:36,400
have Tyree kill, you're playing 
him. 

1924
01:53:36,720 --> 01:53:42,400
So you're right. 
I guess the only other 

1925
01:53:42,400 --> 01:53:44,040
consideration would be single 
week. 

1926
01:53:44,640 --> 01:53:51,040
I still I still have the sense 
that and he might have aged just

1927
01:53:51,040 --> 01:53:54,160
a little bit where he's gone 
from fastest player in the NFL. 

1928
01:53:54,760 --> 01:54:03,720
Nobody can cover this guy. 
So just really good and but you 

1929
01:54:03,720 --> 01:54:06,520
probably don't want to play into
really good the week after you 

1930
01:54:06,520 --> 01:54:08,240
had the really good game. 
Yeah. 

1931
01:54:09,400 --> 01:54:13,440
And but good to see the sign of 
life. 

1932
01:54:14,000 --> 01:54:16,040
Yeah, definitely. 
All right. 

1933
01:54:16,040 --> 01:54:18,840
Last one on this chart, Khalil 
Shakur. 

1934
01:54:19,200 --> 01:54:25,480
I mean, I, I've dude, all last 
season, I mean all it's been 

1935
01:54:25,480 --> 01:54:28,200
multiple seasons that I've been 
pounding the table for Khalil 

1936
01:54:28,200 --> 01:54:31,720
Shakur as one of the better 
receivers for the Bills. 

1937
01:54:31,760 --> 01:54:35,560
I mean, way back when, when they
had, you know, Steph Diggs and 

1938
01:54:35,560 --> 01:54:39,280
Gabe Davis still, I, I was 
pretty firmly of the opinion 

1939
01:54:39,280 --> 01:54:41,440
that Khalil Shakur was their 
second best receiver behind 

1940
01:54:41,440 --> 01:54:43,760
Diggs. 
He's all he's looked very good. 

1941
01:54:43,760 --> 01:54:48,800
He's flashed in the past, but 
now that, you know, they've had 

1942
01:54:48,800 --> 01:54:51,120
Kincaid injured, Keon Coleman's 
out. 

1943
01:54:51,200 --> 01:54:54,560
Amari Cooper still is just like 
very slowly being worked in. 

1944
01:54:54,560 --> 01:54:56,680
He's not running a full 
complement of routes yet. 

1945
01:54:56,680 --> 01:55:00,040
He's, you know. 
So the last four weeks his 

1946
01:55:00,080 --> 01:55:02,920
underlying metrics have been 
like fantastic. 

1947
01:55:03,600 --> 01:55:08,200
So and I'm including, I'm 
including the most recent week 

1948
01:55:08,200 --> 01:55:12,160
14, he's had an average ret run 
of 84%. 

1949
01:55:12,880 --> 01:55:17,680
I'm now excluding the week 14, 
so just week 10 through 13, he 

1950
01:55:17,680 --> 01:55:20,520
had an average target for a run 
of 33%. 

1951
01:55:20,520 --> 01:55:25,560
He had 41% in week 13. 
So I'm feeling actually a little

1952
01:55:25,920 --> 01:55:29,720
and I guess we didn't, we didn't
really cover and single week 

1953
01:55:29,720 --> 01:55:31,320
stuff. 
We were just talking about 

1954
01:55:31,640 --> 01:55:34,520
playoff basketball. 
And so I guess even more we 

1955
01:55:34,520 --> 01:55:38,920
should have covered them. 
And what I'm saying is that the 

1956
01:55:38,920 --> 01:55:46,480
underlying metrics before this 
breakout were there and this the

1957
01:55:46,600 --> 01:55:49,080
the blow up game has has has 
legs. 

1958
01:55:49,080 --> 01:55:54,160
There's sustainability here. 
Yeah, I mean, I'm, I'm, I'm 

1959
01:55:54,160 --> 01:55:56,600
buying into it. 
I put in the notes like, is 

1960
01:55:56,600 --> 01:56:01,480
Khalil Shakur the very clear #1 
pass catcher on Buffalo? 

1961
01:56:02,160 --> 01:56:04,080
I think the answer is yes. 
The Bills think so. 

1962
01:56:04,320 --> 01:56:07,240
Yeah, the Bills think so too. 
Are shallows women playing like 

1963
01:56:07,240 --> 01:56:09,040
it? 
Yeah. 

1964
01:56:09,480 --> 01:56:12,240
So I'm, I'm pretty into Khalil 
Shakur. 

1965
01:56:12,240 --> 01:56:16,040
I think he's a pretty important 
piece for Buffalo playoff 

1966
01:56:16,040 --> 01:56:20,800
basketball teams. 
You know he he would be my money

1967
01:56:20,880 --> 01:56:24,640
for the pass catcher to lead the
team in points at the Super 

1968
01:56:24,640 --> 01:56:30,360
Bowl. 
So yeah, yeah, agree there. 

1969
01:56:30,400 --> 01:56:33,360
And and and where is he going, 
Yam? 

1970
01:56:35,760 --> 01:56:39,200
Shakur, he goes like the the 
Bills pass catchers can 

1971
01:56:39,200 --> 01:56:42,280
sometimes just go undrafted. 
Like literally all of them can 

1972
01:56:42,280 --> 01:56:47,080
just make it to the last round. 
It's really for whatever reason,

1973
01:56:47,080 --> 01:56:50,200
people don't take them without 
Josh Allen in some rooms there. 

1974
01:56:50,200 --> 01:56:52,400
There are other rooms that are 
much more sane where they'll 

1975
01:56:52,520 --> 01:56:55,200
they'll take them. 
But Khalil Shakur is like a 

1976
01:56:55,200 --> 01:56:59,160
fourth rounder, sometimes 5th, 
sometimes 6th. 

1977
01:56:59,160 --> 01:57:02,320
And and you can even get him in 
the 7th if you're in a room 

1978
01:57:02,320 --> 01:57:04,520
where people just are allergic 
to the Bills. 

1979
01:57:04,520 --> 01:57:08,880
So he it's a yeah, he's got a, 
he's got a pretty wide standard 

1980
01:57:08,880 --> 01:57:10,120
deviation. 
Most players do. 

1981
01:57:10,200 --> 01:57:13,880
Right, right, right. 
So if the guy with Josh Allen 

1982
01:57:13,880 --> 01:57:18,080
wants them, he takes them early,
he goes, but if they don't want 

1983
01:57:18,080 --> 01:57:20,600
them then he can be pretty 
cheap. 

1984
01:57:21,080 --> 01:57:24,880
Yeah, yeah. 
If you have Josh Allen then you 

1985
01:57:24,880 --> 01:57:28,080
should push Shakur and then lock
in his. 

1986
01:57:30,840 --> 01:57:33,480
Yeah, I typically, I'll push the
key if there's ever like a a 

1987
01:57:33,800 --> 01:57:36,600
good option on a different team 
that I really like is like 

1988
01:57:36,600 --> 01:57:39,920
either they're a strong player 
without a buy and decent 

1989
01:57:39,920 --> 01:57:42,440
conference championship odds or 
one of the buy teams that's a, 

1990
01:57:42,520 --> 01:57:44,200
you know, a strong player for 
them. 

1991
01:57:44,600 --> 01:57:46,600
I'll probably prioritize that 
over Shakur. 

1992
01:57:47,600 --> 01:57:50,680
But if there's nothing better, 
then Shakur's a pretty solid 

1993
01:57:50,680 --> 01:57:53,000
player to take when you have a 
Josh Allen team. 

1994
01:57:54,360 --> 01:57:57,440
Yeah, agree. 
Should we move on to this next 

1995
01:57:57,440 --> 01:57:57,960
Let's. 
Do it. 

1996
01:57:58,240 --> 01:58:00,320
Let's bring it home. 
I think we can do it in under 2 

1997
01:58:00,320 --> 01:58:01,960
hours. 
Draco, we got 2 minutes left. 

1998
01:58:01,960 --> 01:58:03,360
You want to try and rapid fire 
it. 

1999
01:58:04,080 --> 01:58:07,880
OK, yeah, sounds good. 
I mean, these are last round 

2000
01:58:07,880 --> 01:58:10,680
playoff basketball guys so. 
Yeah, I got, I got now. 22 

2001
01:58:10,680 --> 01:58:12,840
questions for you. 
OK, We got less than a minute on

2002
01:58:12,840 --> 01:58:15,240
each. 
How big a difference is there 

2003
01:58:15,280 --> 01:58:19,520
between Jayden Reed, Christian 
Watson, Romeo Dobbs and 

2004
01:58:19,520 --> 01:58:22,440
Dantavion Wicks for purposes of 
playoff basketball? 

2005
01:58:23,440 --> 01:58:25,520
You almost have to treat them 
interchangeably. 

2006
01:58:27,920 --> 01:58:30,680
The only one I would say is 
different is Dante Beyond Wicks.

2007
01:58:30,800 --> 01:58:31,880
Yeah, Yeah, you're right. 
You're right. 

2008
01:58:31,880 --> 01:58:35,200
He's about. 
Those first 3 and I, I for me, I

2009
01:58:35,200 --> 01:58:38,800
think it's Jaden Reed is like 
one tick above Christian Watts 

2010
01:58:38,800 --> 01:58:41,680
and Romeo Dobbs. 
I know that he's had this last 

2011
01:58:41,680 --> 01:58:46,520
game a lot of I know a goose egg
hurts and people like what the 

2012
01:58:46,520 --> 01:58:48,320
hell? 
He's not even on the field. 

2013
01:58:48,800 --> 01:58:53,040
They ran so much to tight end 
stuff and they like they really,

2014
01:58:53,040 --> 01:58:55,720
really were valuing the 
additional pass protection, 

2015
01:58:55,720 --> 01:58:57,400
additional blockers for the run 
game. 

2016
01:58:58,200 --> 01:59:00,480
So Jaden Reed was just not on 
there a ton. 

2017
01:59:00,680 --> 01:59:03,000
They also didn't have a ton of 
offensive plays. 

2018
01:59:03,000 --> 01:59:07,280
So it was this, you had this, 
you know, these two factors that

2019
01:59:07,280 --> 01:59:10,880
contributed to making it really 
difficult and stifling Jayden 

2020
01:59:10,880 --> 01:59:13,720
Reid's production. 
And it was, hey, they didn't 

2021
01:59:13,720 --> 01:59:15,800
have him on the field a bunch 
because that just wasn't the 

2022
01:59:15,800 --> 01:59:16,960
game plan here. 
They were. 

2023
01:59:16,960 --> 01:59:19,400
They were going a different way.
They wanted the heavyset in. 

2024
01:59:19,800 --> 01:59:23,040
And then also they didn't run a 
ton of plays. 

2025
01:59:23,040 --> 01:59:26,240
So as you, you had those two 
things kind of marrying and it 

2026
01:59:26,240 --> 01:59:28,080
created this perfect storm for 
him to goose egg. 

2027
01:59:28,080 --> 01:59:31,760
All right, 30 seconds. 
Can you draft any other Broncos 

2028
01:59:31,760 --> 01:59:33,640
receivers other than Cortland 
Sutton? 

2029
01:59:33,760 --> 01:59:37,920
Are you taking Devon Bailey? 
Oh, I need let me let me look at

2030
01:59:37,920 --> 01:59:40,280
the Tata please. 
Yeah. 

2031
01:59:42,080 --> 01:59:51,040
So ballet I'm showing as 8 1/2 
points a game and Troy Franklin 

2032
01:59:51,040 --> 02:00:01,720
5.6. 
So we're talking, we're talking 

2033
02:00:01,720 --> 02:00:03,440
about playoff basketball here. 
Yeah. 

2034
02:00:04,200 --> 02:00:09,440
And yeah, I, I don't, I don't 
think you can. 

2035
02:00:09,560 --> 02:00:12,120
Like, that's just seems like 
such a specific bet to make 

2036
02:00:12,800 --> 02:00:15,600
where you're, you're betting 
Broncos beat playoff Rod. 

2037
02:00:16,680 --> 02:00:21,760
And so when the field tins out 
like Devon Valet, his 8 1/2 

2038
02:00:21,760 --> 02:00:23,960
points is bringing home the 
bacon. 

2039
02:00:26,000 --> 02:00:27,520
I, I, I, I don't think that's 
right. 

2040
02:00:27,520 --> 02:00:30,760
I think it is just certain. 
I I agree it's just sudden. 

2041
02:00:30,760 --> 02:00:35,800
I've taken Marvin Mims once, but
after I did it, I was like, I 

2042
02:00:35,800 --> 02:00:37,480
think that's the only time I 
need to do that. 

2043
02:00:37,800 --> 02:00:43,200
So, right, all right, I think 
that'll do it for tonight. 

2044
02:00:44,520 --> 02:00:46,600
Thank you, everyone for tuning 
in. 

2045
02:00:46,800 --> 02:00:50,880
I hope that you advanced more 
teams than you expected earlier 

2046
02:00:50,880 --> 02:00:54,480
in the season. 
You know, it certainly, 

2047
02:00:54,480 --> 02:00:57,840
certainly got a little better as
things went on, but now the real

2048
02:00:57,840 --> 02:01:00,320
fun begins as we sweat through 
the playoffs. 

2049
02:01:00,320 --> 02:01:03,880
So we will look forward to 
seeing you back here next week 

2050
02:01:04,880 --> 02:01:11,040
as we either celebrate or bemoan
our fortunes from the first week

2051
02:01:11,080 --> 02:01:14,640
of the fantasy playoffs. 
See you next week, everyone.