Hello everybody and welcome to ATP.
Chasing it is July 4th weekend and Underdog has blessed us with
the new tournament format that will be breaking down as long in
addition to the normal Rogers and followers on ATP chasing.
Let's go, Pat, fryer homos, Anita handjob exercise Jamar.
Hey Chase. Everybody, happy July 4th
weekend. We're here today with Davis and
Pete. I think I guess Pete Pat's to
too rich to join us on July 4th weekend.
So, we got Pete here, instead. Man of the people, Pete, how are
you doing? Welcome back to ATP chasing.
Yeah, thank, you know. Yeah, I mean, it's kind of all
of us. Normal Americans have to work on
July 3rd, it's not all of us just getting the entire week
off, who knows? Switch, you know, major
Cosmopolitan City, Pat is around the globe, it could be
Stockholm, it could be the lon, who knows?
But the rest of us are ready to roll up our sleeves and help the
people win this new contest. That's the that's the goal.
I mean, Pat's definitely eating a pastry on a beach somewhere,
you know, he doesn't he doesn't have time to get his hands dirty
with the rest of us. He's not even worried about
weekly winners. He's like, well, what I'm going
to win 20,000 dollars per week. That doesn't, that doesn't move
the needle for old mr. Kray know.
What is the battery size is like $15 to Pat?
Doesn't even recognize nominations blow, like a
thousand. So he's not even thinking about
it. The only thing is he did poke
holes in that logic by Max entering the puppy.
With slowly. He's like a weird combination of
millionaire and just truly broken brain syndrome there.
He was just doing it to test the rankings.
Let's be honest, you know, he's just really trying to deliver
value for legendary upside subscribers.
Yeah, some Curious have Davis. I were talking before the show
Pete but we are going to be new to this weekly.
Winners will be a first draft for both of us.
How have you been diving into that at all?
Yes, I have my toes. Dipped in this is you know just
put all my transparent cards on the table.
I did my first fast draft last night and I've entered about 10
slow drafts and I will be honest.
I've been thinking about the contest though all weekend.
It's been it's like snuck its way into my brain as a very fun
puzzle. Kind of like when we first
started getting these best Ball Mania tournament structures.
And really trying to think through this in the weekly
winners one I think is so interesting.
There's already so many ideas and stuff out there and so many.
Viable ways I think to attack it.
So yeah I'm excited to talk about it.
It seems like just the chatter I'm saying that everyone is
really enjoying this new format. I do II saw a couple things.
The first is I didn't draft. The best Ball Mania team at all
for 8 days which is like the longest that I've gone I did to
this morning I'm going to be doing to every day this week to
get caught up. The other thing though is the
weekly winners issue is really sort of that Classic.
This is like a DFS thing that people had to deal.
For a long time, which is you care about grinding, smaller
amounts of expected value, but higher levels of realization, of
that value or do you place all your efforts and all your
thoughts on the very high expected value.
But the very low realization value of the million-dollar
tournaments and where I've landed is.
I prefer the higher expected value lower realization but you
know obviously that's going to differ a lot based on your goals
and what you're trying to do and gambling for.
For sure. Yeah, that makes sense in the
yeah, I think with the weekly winners to, I think I'm going to
come around to it more, but I think I always have this
reaction to new tournaments where I'm just like you got so
comfortable with best Ball Mania and what you're used to and like
what you think? At least I've no idea if what
I'm doing is actually optimal and regular best of all.
But least I'd like think it isn't have confidence in it so I
can fire a draft. I know what my stride is going
to be and then when there are these new tournaments like come
out, there's this like initial reaction of like, I don't I want
to like have to learn something new but it always, like totally
it comes around over time. I think it's really interesting,
like, the playoff basketball. I think, originally kind of felt
that way about it and then I just got completely addicted to
to that format. So, I think I'm going to come
around to this, this weekly Winners thing.
Once I start doing a couple of drafts, but man, the, the amount
of different strategies, that that I've seen out there in the
different ways to play it. I think, why don't we do this?
Let's quickly hit on the risers and follows this week, aren't
That plentiful to be honest. This is the dead dimes.
This is the real dead times like nothing's happening.
No one's getting signs. Like we don't have Hopkins
signed, we don't have cooked signed.
We don't have training camp injuries.
Like yeah, we got nothing. We got we got every 4 days.
Someone from the Broncos organization, iterates, the Tim
Patrick is the the second coming of Jesus Christ, he's Jerry Rice
and Randy Moss and one guy. And that's, that's really about
it. Yeah.
So let's let's yeah. Let's look hit.
A couple of years of these guys quickly and then I want to Pivot
to to the weekly winners strategy talk.
But let's talk the two guys. I want to talk here.
A lot of this movement is like just very small movement in the
early running back ATP. I think this is maybe like a
Tyreke ill effect of some kind or like the caffeine declare
getting a tiny bump. I'm a little boy Tyreke.
I think it's also a little bit people.
I think it's a breeze whole thing to where people are less
well having him as the anchor. Barbie and then you just smash
wide, receiver rounds, 2, 3, 4 and 5.
I think those are the corresponding things.
Yeah, the thing, the thing I've noticed with these.
Like so a lot of times, the way we do these, charts the change
in ATP, we do it based on a percentage basis, that's how
these players are ordered. So that's why McCaffrey is
number one here even though he moved less than a spot in a
teepee. I've noticed these things like a
weird week to week where McCaffrey will jump point seven
spots one week and then drop point seven spots and next
weekend like I think sometimes there's So I was like no Rhyme
or Reason to it, like maybe it's when a puppy is available,
people like wide receivers more and they take McCaffrey later
when a puppy's, not Avail, I don't know.
There's like random shit going on.
Anyways, let's talk like some news based stuff that's
happening. I want to start with the Tim
Patrick thing which you lead you to Davis he is being hyped up by
Denver beat reporters. I think they're you know
somebody reporter. I forget who said you know,
inside the organization they think he's the best wide
receiver, the Broncos have or something like that.
That I think with Patrick. The thing is, he is paid a lot
of money. He had an early season ACL tear
last year. So the health should be good
enough for him to start the year and he has a history of being a
decent, you know. Okay.
Producer sort of 700 yards per year, six touchdowns type guy.
So I do get sort of the rise in a teepee.
What I'm interested in Pete is, do you think this means there's
some some risk in Cortland Sutton order?
Judy's ATP. If, you know, Tim Patrick's
around taking Snaps they drafted, Marvin Mims and the
second round. Sutton and Judy are pretty high
premium, pick still. Are you fearful at all?
For those guys? With these other pieces around
in Denver, I mean I've been pretty spooked on Sutton
recently and I took my foot off the gas because I was kind of
shrugging my shoulder and drafting him in that range, you
know, after kind of that wide receiver, Cliff happens.
That ran was so bad. It really is.
And I think I think there's probably multiple factors
contributing to the Tim Patrick one, he's just a player that the
community tends to like he's been good.
He you know last year he got screamed up draft boards before
he got injured and stuff. So I think they're just in
general positive sentiment and then I think people like the
Broncos as like a bounce back this year and then people say
hey I might get a cheap double stack with Tim Patrick or maybe
I dink the trade Sutton gets traded.
And all of a sudden I'm getting what six rounds of closing, line
value and Tim Patrick moves up to like round. 13, if something
gets traded. Although that trade might not
happen until in season. Most I mean, I think that's a
zero. I think that's a zero-sum game.
I think, Sutton or Patrick produces One winner.
It's I think it's impossible for it to produce to basically.
I don't think there will be enough Patty enough yards and
five touchdowns and up Red Zone. Possessions like either Sutton
is just so dust that Patrick basically unseats him or sudden
just plays and Tim Patrick is the guy he's always been which
is like a rotational all third or fourth wide receiver you know
and also I kind of think dulcich and Patrick is a zero-sum game
too although like you know the barriers are production, it
tight end or lower, I just like in my mind, the Denver break the
the Denver re break out the Denver, you know, the team we
thought we were getting last year shows up this year.
It's not 4,500 passing yards, 33 passing touchdowns, it's just
they turn into a competent NFL offense with, with the way Sean,
Payton is going to call it but I pushed On the adulterous one
thing because don't judge can be on the field with those guys
whereas like one of Tim Patrick or Courtland Sutton like is not
going to be on the field and three wide receiver sets with
Judy and Mims. Most likely, you know, not by
the end of the year. I mean, you need a Judy injury.
I think is like the only way you get that, right?
Yeah, something something for me is like, I think I have the same
thought as you Pete. When I looked at drafts, you
know, a couple months ago or whatever, however, long it's
been. I guess since we started doing
this, I was like, oh, something looks Like the end of the wide
receivers and he's an okay pick and that range.
Now I'm pretty, I'm like full full fading Sutton because one I
don't know like he did have a good start to his career, but
it's been a couple years now. After that, ACL tear where he is
just not returned to the the same guy.
He was and you can blame quarterback play.
If you want, it has it obviously hasn't been great with rust
there with Drew lock their Teddy.
Bridgewater there hasn't been great, but man, I think some of
the early season efficiency and athleticism Add might just be
gone, even though he's still a relatively young.
I just think he never really fully recovered from that, that
ACL tear. And yeah, you add in the playing
time concerns with him. I just think it's like, if we're
saying there's a wide receiver Dead Zone this year.
I think he kind of epitomizes it in a lot of ways, where I'd much
rather take a stab on on Bateman or say flowers.
I feel a lot better about the talent.
They're both those guys, I think I have a much better chance of
being their team's wide receiver, one than Courtland,
Sutton. Does, I'm not sure either take a
couple running backs in that range.
Well, yeah, you get on the clock, you get on the clock and
the ninth round. You have two or three wide
receivers in your choices are Tim.
Patrick Michael Thomas, Juju Smith Schuster and Allen Lazard.
It's just like it is. There's no worse position to be
in. It's so horrific.
I mean, that's why I think that's why I have so much
Anthony Richardson is. I just get to that spot and
drafts and I'm like, you know what?
I like Rishi rice or Sky more or, or You know, I don't whoever
Rhonda Moore, the same as I like these guys, so I might as well
just get a quarterback who can runs a little bit here.
I'm surprised. Anthony Richardson, isn't on
this chart? Just anecdotally for my drafts,
I've been getting my Anthony Richardson exposure.
Now, he's falling automat pick 118.
I wouldn't be surprised to see him on this chart next.
Yeah, it's interesting on the fault because he's been like
very steadily falling but it's never been like a big fall, so
he's never popped in the charts. But yeah, if we did something
like, you know, verse a month ago.
Though he would certainly show up as one of the bigger
followers you. He got up to like pick 84 and
that was like, did the peak of like the Anthony Richardson hype
cycle? I think like spags was saying,
you gotta take him in like, the, the fifth round or something
crazy and then he's just steadily Fallen since then,
which is, which is interesting. I'm with you Davis, like I have
so much Daniel Jones because of that reason I have so much
Anthony Richardson because of that reason I get to pick like
100 and I like the running backs in that range but like, yeah,
I'm with you. I'd rather I'd rather take
Stabbing like Nico: like cost adjusted like Nico Collins
Jacoby. Myers are just so much better
bets than like Courtland Sutton and JuJu that I'm just like I'm
just I'm pausing a wide receiver.
Hear you even if I need one honestly, like I'm just pressing
Paul, I just make them I just make them eight wide receiver
teams instead. I just at that point I'm like
I'll just I'll just try and make up for this via numbers.
Yeah. I feel like those atp's that you
just described like after they flowers and Bateman going when
you get into that Purgatory of see, Sutton and Michael Thomas
and them. I feel like that ATP is almost
driven exclusively by people who feel like they get behind at
widening, their like I did because like that, I took
Michael Thomas last, but he was literally like, we're getting
fucking buried and we literally need a body here.
I think that no one's ever excited too.
But they're just like, structurally.
I got a fucking take a guy, right?
Well and and that I think we've seen that the after like wide
receiver, let's call 45, you know, after Quinton Johnson
flowers and Bateman go, the wide receiver.
ATP is so do for insane. Actions like guys who gets team
are really going to get steamed. We're going to see guys.
We already saw this with the Arizona situation Hollywood,
Brown is up to a fifth round pick, from elmore's, like wide
receiver, 60, you know, George and Michael Wilson were being
undrafted, they're drafted almost every single time now.
And come on George is not getting drafted every single
time. In the 20th round, he is a lock
for multiple 15-point DraftKings games and you can just take
them. Um, but the point I was making
is any sort of, you know, if we get if out, if we get an Allen
Robinson is in the best shape of his life.
They're playing, The slot yada yada.
He's going way up DeVante Parker.
We've already seen. I mean nothing we didn't already
know Parker was not getting cut or traded on the contract that
he was on Parker's up ten spots just based off signing a
contract but we're going to see. Crazy 5060 spot jumps from
Riders. Remember when Marquez Callaway
was in a brown paper and then just was Marquez Galloway and
did nothing. We're going to see my guess is
like five guys like that. This offseason where they went
from being a total laughter thought to being drafted, 100
spots to. I might think that's a really
good point too, because of again, like the wide receiver
Dynamic. The first teams that want to
like, you're going to be quicker to talk yourself into some of
these wide receiver risers. If you're like, hey, I'm
scooping up these three running back values and like 345 and
like, I need to catch up all of a sudden.
It's and we've already seen it a little bit.
Is Romeo Dobbs or Sky more on the chart because anecdotally, I
feel like those guys have no but but that's hat like you Then
another set of, I got a drip advised to open it's coming like
once the Packers declare a winner between Dobbs and read.
Whichever one of that guy is he goes up 30 spots, when Andy Reid
is saying Sky more is, is our guy week one, or whatever?
He's going up, 20 spots or rice could go up. 40 spots, you know,
pretty easily. So the two guy in that range
that you guys, I like the best and I think have potential for
huge jumps up. Our Nico Collins and Jonathan
Mingo and it's a pretty straightforward thesis.
It's just that they're the wide receiver ones on their teams and
I think a lot of research I recommend people to check out
JJ's a crease in late round quarterback.
He has done some studies that show.
Once you get into these like late rounds, like a teepee.
I forget exactly how he defines it but I'm sure ATP. 130, and
later I think is sort of in the range he's talking about
oftentimes these like wide receiver Wands on supposed bad
teams Oftentimes better bets than, you know, taking Justin
Fields wide receiver to we're taking you know Rondell more
who's not going to be a wide receiver one in Arizona Etc.
So I think those are two guys like we're forget Camp reports.
I know mingoes Prospect profile like it's not spotless but he
was what the thirty fifth pick in the draft.
If we get Camp report said like hey like yeah, scream Queen is
on this. He's the new it.
He's the new age, he's the new age, Kelvin Benjamin, Yeah,
exactly. So yeah, those are two guys that
like taking stabs on but, you know, yeah, I think that you can
make an argument for a lot of those guys where I do think this
range like pick. I honestly don't see a big
difference. You know, once you get the
tsaatan pick 9V to pick one Thirty in a teepee, I think
there's going to be some massive reshuffling in that range over
the next. I agree completely in.
Like I think you can apply that to basically anyone that we
vaguely. Like like I take a Decent amount
of Alec Pierce especially now that I've been done some more
Anthony Richardson. Like if Anthony Richardson is
bawling at training camp and people are getting confidence in
him as a passer like you're going to see Alec Pierce's ATP.
Get pushed up to the point where I wouldn't be surprised to see
them like correlated as like a 9/10.
Double tap like you take a Richardson you take it up either
stuff like that is going to happen.
A ton. Yeah 100% let's keep this on
track, let's move to DeVante Parker that was the the piece of
news. That the Patriots, inexplicably
extended. DeVante, Parker look, we don't
need to talk about how dumb they move.
This was for the Patriots. I think like everyone agrees on
that they guaranteed this guy, 14 million dollars, he's 30
years old. He hasn't really been good in a
while, but I will make like the case for him in this ATP range.
Why? I think he's a solid pick, I do
think this is news in the sense that Parker's contract was
actually cuttable. They could have caught him with
zero dead cap. Before this extension, the
details aren't fully out now, but I imagine this extension
locks him on the roster for this year, for a decent chunk of
money to me. That's just a signal that
they're planning to play Parker into wide receiver sets.
He's not a slot wide receiver, he's an outside X wide receiver,
you don't just pay a guy this. If you're not going to play them
it doesn't it doesn't mean he's good.
I don't think he's that good but last year he played in like just
10 or 11 games, I think I'm sorry. 13 games.
Any had to, we had one week six or 79 and two touchdowns and
week 18 against the bills. That was actually a game where
the pages are trying to win. It wasn't garbage time and then
week 25 for 156 against the Ravens.
So he did have two big weeks last year, he's completely free.
I think he's going to play. It's kind of like as a Jones
eesc bet from last year were like that's exactly what it is.
Yeah, it's a great. That's a great point.
Aunt, that's my stance on it and I'm pretty, I'm pretty bearish
on on type 1 Thornton. Now, I think his paths to
getting a big route. Share participation, share are a
bit lower because I kind of, was baking in the chance of Parker
just being outright cut from the Patriots.
Now, I think it's like a little bit thinner and how with Juju
there with kiseki. There, you know, running around
to the wide receiver with Parker there, Kendrick born, still on
the roster. Tuck one, Thornton's really bad.
Rookie year might have just been a signal that They're not really
planning on having a role for him.
He was a guy was bullish on early, so it kind of hurts my
bags to say that but that's kind of how I'm approaching England.
I guess, I guess I never thought that they were going to cut
Parker. I get that they could have like
money-wise but based on like how little basically they replaced
Juju or Jacoby with Juju and then basically made no other
Edition. So I kinda always worked under
this option like Hey we're going to need Parker just like as a
body out here. So to me it's like if you like
Parker before like continue drafting him as an eighteenth,
round pick, he's free. I just don't think anything has
changed since that contract thing.
It was like, I think he's in like the exact same spot.
Like I think it's a little weird if, like the thinking, like he's
gonna have a better season because he got that contract.
I know that's not what people are saying.
It's saying like, hey, he doesn't have the cut risk or
whatever. I just don't think a lot has
changed from you. Either liked him or you didn't
and he still free. Yeah, I think for me it's like
yeah. He's just a high, a taught at
this point in his career. He's just A high, a DOT deep
threat guy, you know, 500 yards last year.
That's obviously not impressive, but once you get to the 18th
round and I'm taking all the way we're, we're these guys action.
Like I'm okay with that. The way he accrues the 500 yards
though, is he might have a bunch of games with 18 yards, but he
also might have three games where he has 111 yards.
And I also, I mean, this is a, this is a pro Mac Jones program
for the most part. Like we just the idea that That
they'll be a more competent offense with an actual offensive
coordinator, seems truer than not and the market I mean it's
what Ramon Drago's in the third round and then no Patriot goes
into like the 15th round until taekwon goes.
It's So change you but yeah giant Keith.
Okay great torque. Should Greg is going to score
more fantasy points than you do this.
You're probably all Juju Juju. Still Juju is still dealing with
a knee injury that he suffered in week 9 of last season.
He still is not back to full speed like that.
Just, it does not strike me as a guy who's ready to pay off a
wide receiver, 50 price tag. Like I would rather Parker at
cost not even close and that's actually Loki.
I mean that would be a way that Thornton's price could be
reasonable and Parker's could be as if Juju just like physically
cannot play this year here. Let me position it this way
because this I think is the more interesting thing about these as
players because I really do think with like correlation you
can justify about any 18th round pick like it.
If someone wants to take Alan Robinson on a Kenneth, like,
whatever. I think Alan Robinson sometimes.
But this was my question with DeVante, Parker, would you ever
take him dot-dot-dot in a vacuum?
So, with no man Jones with no Buffalo.
Bring back like, just purely as like, this is the guy I need for
this team, that's where I don't. I don't see it, but I don't see
that for basically. Any 18th round pick?
Yeah, I actually ice. He liked making uncorrelated
18th, round picks because to me, it feels like the way that
seventeenth and eighteenth round picks payoff is just they end up
playing far more than anticipated, whether it be
breakout, performance, injury, whatever, that's on the advance
rate thing, right? That like in that scenario, but
that's not I think we're they really pay off is in the
correlated fashion in the three weeks.
Sprint. Sure.
Yeah, I would say, I think I would take him like
uncorrelated, I would say like I would be checking a lot.
Of other things. Before I took an uncorrelated
DeVante, Parker in the 18th, like, I'd be checking, you know,
do I need a tie down here? And can I correlate, you know,
trade McBride with Kyler Murray or do I need a, you know, did I
take Josh Allen and can I take Deonte Hardy and said, like,
it's not my first choice but sometimes you do get to the
eighteenth round. You know, you need a wide
receiver and I don't want to take like a speculative like
wide receiver 5, you know on like I don't want to take Devin
du vernay over them. They Parker or something like
that. And I don't know, maybe, maybe
something, maybe I'm wrong for that and some people would go
that direction. But, you know, I feel pretty
good about the locks and playing time frame and it's not a sexy
pic, but like, this is a Jones thing lasted, like, I really
think it is kind of similar to the Z Jones thing last year,
where, you know, and I don't expect him to have as good a
year of say Jones was just like, you know, look at the wide
receivers in Parkers range. And there's no one who projects
for for a role, like he does like it's, you know, I'm a coal
hard. I'm in jail and Hyatt Hunter
Renfro, you know we've talked about Tim Patrick, right?
But he still has an outside chance.
I think to be his team's wide receiver to where's Parker.
I think has been such an. So the only thing I'd say is I
think is a Jones. This A Jones example is an
example for why correlation is so important because hitting on
say Jones was part of hitting on the Jags as an undervalued
offense. Evan engram.
Ended up being undervalued Trevor Lawrence did.
So that's why I'm just saying like let's say an example, I
have a giant or a ram stat going and I'm just Fighting between an
uncorrelated DeVante Parker or two to out.
Well, like I'm taking two to out.
Well, the correlated bet in that thing and if you if you're doing
I had to toss you a short boy, peace offering their.
But so to the Parker point like I would actually want to have
Parker as part of like a Mac Jones is sticky Hunter, Henry
thing being like this offense on, the whole is undervalued, in
Parker is going to be part of the big winner as the market
undervaluing this team. Yeah, that's very that's
definitely the best time to take him.
Let's go. Yeah, let's move on to the
fallers. We hit on it Jay and Jenna had a
second ago. He is Fallen a ton.
I also do want to highlight Tyree kill.
I think there's maybe a tiny bit of suspension, fears with him,
but he's really not Fallen more than I take.
I take cup over him now. Yeah, just because of the dirt
tail risk. I'm in the same boat.
We'll wait for more news on that.
We talked about it last week, but yeah, he's fallen.
I think it's justifiable to take.
Take a cop and Cafe over him. But let's start with these,
like, giant slot receivers. I feel like it's become a
recurring bit on this show, where we have to talk about
Giants, Rod receiver. We need to, we need 17 minutes
of if Isaiah Hodgins will, or will not make a roster of weeks
ago. Yeah, let's talk about James and
crowd over. Sterling Shepherd Cantwell,
receiver sex. So to me, this actually makes In
a sense, this is because they're never, there was never any
reason for five Giants wide receivers to be drafted every
single time, you know. Yeah, and the market is now
deciding the winners are Hodgins and Campbell, which means that
Hyatt and one Dale necessarily have to, you know, be just for
the market to reach an equilibrium.
Those guys have to essentially be undrafted.
Yeah, I think of this development because like Hyatt
at this price and Rondell Wanda, these are the ones I want my two
favorite. Now you're getting them this
Eep. I agree.
I'm pretty excited about it because I wasn't drafting a lot
of high it, but I'm going to be start scooping him up at these
prices. Yeah I'd really like something
him naked or just with Giants and Rams.
It would all probably almost exclusively Be Giants and Rams.
But again, like I said, I'm almost like a hundred percent
only correlating my last three to four round picks.
Hmm, sure. I would take Hyatt naked.
Sometimes he's certainly not even in like Top 10 favorite,
you know, wide receivers to take with my last pick or whatever
but I could see it Downs. I would never take naked, but I
think he, I think Downs is a great probably my favorite, you
know, last round pick to correlate started.
Think you have a player type that you like Davis
five-foot-six 140 pounds soaking wet.
Just get our downtown's has grounds is skinny but he's not
he's not that short. Gowns is super skinny but he's
not. He's not he's not a short 59
that that is not a short King. Trusts you Schuyler divided or
five night isn't it? Come on Davis.
Finally, just might as well be like, but Dallas is not Downs is
not like a wand ale Dortch to, to near the line of scrimmage
guy, he's all bombs, he's just bombs Productions.
Same for Hyatt to actually, Yeah, the thing is that these
two guys that I think is interesting and try to make this
one a couple years ago, but I think sometimes we double count,
the fact that a player goes later than their alleged like
consensus, you know, mock draft ranking, like everyone was
expecting Hyatt and downs to be a first-round picks.
That was like, if you looked at mock draft database, they were,
you know, in the 30s whatever they felt the third round and
like we sometimes like, Punish those guys for that, like
third-round draft Capital as a rookie is still like pretty
solid for a wide receiver. We haven't had a huge hits
recently, but like Chris, God honors a third-round pick.
Michael Gallup, deante, Johnson, like there's been plenty of good
mon round round worth round Amon-Ra.
Fourth round exactly, right? And like, obviously, like these
Camp story lines of like Jalen highlights playing with the wide
receiver, her with the third team offense, like all
obviously, he is like, it's June, it was June.
When those reports came out, they have a shit ton of I'd
receivers like I'm not expecting him to be playing with the
starters in Camp. So I like these guys like these
third round wide receivers. I think, at some point during
the season, they're going to get a chance.
It's a pretty pretty high pick to spend on these guys so
especially when they're completely free.
I kind of like this archetype of bed.
It's like, you know, it's like when it's not completely
comparable cuz they were second round picks.
But people always talk about, you know, Claypool and Higgins
were completely free. A second-round picks in 2020,
obviously rookies have been priced up across the board, but
you can still get Pretty good draft, Capital rookies,
completely free just because we decided we don't, we don't like
these guys anymore because they went a little bit later than we
expected. So I like this authentic that
and I don't I always push back when I forget, who is saying
I've just like you don't have to take any Giants wide receivers
just take Darren Waller and like log off.
I mean, the whole reason people are applying that I view it,
very similar to the three ambiguous, running back fields.
We see the Saints the Dolphins and And the Bears where it's
like, I don't even think you have to guess, which one of
those three is going to be a hit.
I think you might be able to just guess two of three and you
might be able to win on two of them, same with these Giants.
I don't even think you have to guess, which one you might be
able to get to out of this cohort of Five Guys who ends up
massively outperforming their ATP because they're just free in
unless you're just fully out on the Giants.
Which I don't really know why you wouldn't.
They showed so much last year under Dave, all they're going to
get more in the groove. This year.
Darren Waller. Add him in.
Like this is an offense I want to be in on you're going to give
me ambiguity in this wide receiver room all at cost and
they're just a perfect backdoor stack like I'm in on these
Giants. Yeah.
I don't draft Hodgins because
Hodgins is just Travis fulgham to me like teams shoes, just he
just doesn't matter. I think the winner is likely to
be one of one Dale or Hyatt. I think those are the guys who
are like most likely to be someone that you might.
Actually have wanted to have drafted.
Like what Hodgins is just Allen Robinson, you know, it's just
like 500 yards and five touchdowns.
Maybe like that's a good season for him and I just as not
exciting. Yeah, it's funny cuz I think
everyone has different opinions about the Giants wide receivers
personally. I'm not taking one Dale, and I'm
not really taking much Campbell, and I'm taking the other guys,
but I understand why people disagree with that.
I just think I agree with Pete's larger point that, you know, I
really like this the potential of this It's all fans like
everyone's treating Daniel Jones, Pass, catchers like,
completely for dead besides Waller and, you know, they
passed more towards end of the season.
We saw Daniel Jones have that massive game obviously in week
17, you know, he would have been in Pat's lineup.
If Brady didn't also blow up that week and then in the
playoffs against the Vikings you threw for 300 yards.
And two, touchdowns also ran for 80 yards like Hodgins that over
100 yards Layton had 80 plus yards.
Like I think the team they wanted to Be kind of came
through a bit of end of the year last year and that's obviously
down there to street. But Dave old always kind of
wanted to run past first offenses.
I don't think they're really gonna do as much of the Daniel
Jones designed run, you know, run the entire offense or Sake,
One bar. So I think they kind of showed
that in the pieces. They added this offseason that
they want to throw more. So yeah, I'm really excited
about the Giants. One other point about this and
who said it mookie, said it in the chat.
I have a hard time seeing these guys being free all summer.
I mean, look no further than the Paris Campbell rise.
I mean that was what like One training camp report that he was
like looking good. It he already eat frog, two
players who are in my opinion, more talented than him.
So like if that one piece of news, think about how like an
actual training camp report or a preseason game is going to rock
it, one of these guys up, you can see an 8-round jump for one
of these guys, it wouldn't surprise me.
Yeah, yeah, I think that's accurate.
Okay, cool. Well like we said kind of a dead
news time, I don't think there's honestly some of these other
wide receiver, ATP fall or movement.
I think I'll keep an eye on it. It's kind of interesting that
the first round wide receivers are slightly down across the
board, but I've seen too much of this noise week to week to
really think we need to talk too much about, you know, Digs at
your ground lamb. All going slightly down.
I think, I think that is mostly just noise.
So, let's move to talking about the weekly winner strategy.
So, I wanted to show this quickly And I, you know, as is
kind of tradition on the show just kind of copying stuff.
That's smarter. People have done and repackaging
it as our own sort of an important piece of ATP chasing.
So I read even weeks. Links article, I read Chris
cheese article, I read Justin her Zing's article and I kind of
pulled out nine strategies that those guys called out in their
articles. So I think a lot of these are
interesting, but Pete, I know you spent the most time thinking
about it. You don't have to go off this
list. But are any of these strategies
are, you know, any strategies that you want to talk about
that? You think you're really
prioritize, so you hop into a weekly winners draft what sort
of like the first couple things you're thinking about?
Once you once you enter the lobby yeah and I would say.
So for me I do think like the structure of how you build your
team is by far the most important and I do think like
all this stuff with the stacking divisions in the bye weeks.
I think that's very funny. And I think there's a time and
place for it. I hate to use the word
tiebreaker because that gets overused as a strategic cop out,
most of the time, but I really do think people need to
reorient. How they're thinking about
drafting a team, and really viewing it through a DFS lens
in. Like, I think one of the things
that helped me frame, it is I literally thought let's even
just like, take the bench spots out of it.
Let's say if you had to make a Draft Kings line up, which I
believe is nine spots and it was fixed for the Our year, so no
extra things and you were just trying and that got tossed into
the Millie maker each week. Week 1, week 2 week 3 and you
still have the normal salary constraint constraint.
So let's just assume Travis Kelce.
It's going to cost a lot. Mahomes is how would you go
about building that roster? Knowing you can't touch it and
none of the opponents can't touch it.
And the thing I keep coming back to is that I would build through
the elite ones. He's in that I want a top six or
seven quarterback, who has access to a 40-point ceiling.
I would want access to one of the top five or six tight ends
who has access to a 20 plus Point ceiling.
And then I would look around for other value, value at wide
receiver value at running back, building that out.
But the main thing I keep coming back to is the elite ones.
Who can separate? That's kind of the first like,
tentpole thing. And then the second thing I've
been thinking about is, I think, always, when we draft best ball
teams, we want our early selections to inform what we do.
I think invest Balmain, it's a little more fluid like, all
right, after three rounds, start to see how that's Inform the
rest of it. I think even more important.
Like the second you draft Cooper cup.
You're saying how do I win a million acre with Cooper cup as
the Bedrock for this team or whether that's your taking
Travis Kelce? And so that's that part.
I need to flush out a little bit more but I do really think
building around what you've already done.
And this means pushing the structures to the Max and I'm
not the first one to say it, but I do really like the one
quarterback build the one tight end and then just load up on
running back and wide receiver elsewhere.
So those are kind of the two things.
He's knocking around in my head with it.
I'd like I like that idea of just giving up the EV of just
being like one week. You're just not going to be
eligible to win to get larger EV in the other weeks the my
immediate response though with strategy 5 here on Sam's list
which is just Giga stack one team, right?
So basically every week you're heading in with, you've got
five, eagles, five, Chiefs, five, bills, five, whoever and
just be like, you know, the three weeks that those teams get
pushed. Or if they get an overtime game
or whatever, you're just going to have like an unbelievable
level of points there. So I would guess I would think
people are probably not doing that again anecdotally.
I've not been in this room so maybe they are and maybe that's
a strategy that is too popular in your and it's just going to
end up being one v1's of like your rb2 for twenty thousand
dollars and you just destroyed all your EV but that was my
first thought the hook. Yeah, so I was just I want you
to go Oh Sam, I was just okay. It flies in the face of how I
was thinking about my DFS fixed roster spot and to me the cost
of Giga stacking, it would be like if you want to do it with
the Panthers or Texans or whatever.
But think about you would never in your DFS lineup for one week.
Do Kelsey Mahomes kid Darius, Tony and Pacheco in the Millie
maker like you would never do that.
You're capping too much of your weekly ceiling.
I think you're thinking about it more of like I want to be live
more weeks but yeah that that's what I'm saying.
Pleasant City 99.9%, I'll outcome to make any money these
weeks and I think those guys are too, negatively correlated on a
what you can get. You can get your 99th percentile
weeks from the other, the other parts of your Oscar.
I actually think it's kind of a high floor strategy where the in
a way with these Elite teams because you know so often
they're going to have qb1 running back.
One wide receiver. One type of why do we want floor
in this contest? Nothing about the payout
structure. Indicates.
It's floor, should be a consideration.
What sport, more bites, more bites at the Apple, right?
You're going to have more live weeks or you think that's wrong.
So I just think I'll go ahead Sam.
I've been. Yeah, maybe it's a Bridget.
I do think it really depends on price.
Like, for instance, I would be totally fine, going, Daniel,
Jones, and all five of those giants pass catchers.
We talked about because taking them thirteen, fourteen,
fifteen, six, whatever. And then when I get a Daniel
Jones blow up week, I know I'm live in any of those weeks, I
guess. Darren Waller, you could fuck
that up right, but that's idea, right?
But I get what Pete's saying or like with the Eagles it gets a
little tricky. Like I think I'd be willing to
take, like, two out of three of ghadir Smith AJ brown with Jalen
hurts, if that's even possible. It's like hard to do in a normal
drafts. I'm guessing it's even harder to
do now, but I wouldn't want to go fully overboard.
But yeah. She's for instance, like, if you
want to go Mahomes and then like Sky more mvs, Rishi rice, just
Austin Watson, whatever. I think that's fine, right?
Because it cost adjusted it. Like today was this point?
I do think there is some element of like You want to like Mahomes
is going to have four or five massive weeks all year.
Your other pieces are are only going to go off at the same time
that Mahomes goes off in like one or two of those weeks,
right? Like so I do kind of get the
idea of like, giving yourself multiple bites at the Apple of
like when the Chiefs go off, like your other pieces could
fail some of the time. So I do kind of want to give
myself like a couple chances on the Chiefs, blow up game to get
the right pieces to like match match that so Do you think I see
both of what you're saying? I think it's like, very, very
like price sensitive and call suggested to me.
Well, and again, and I realize it's not a perfect one for one,
but I do think thinking through that DFS lens and Davis, think
about it this way to write, like, if you were to stack
Mahomes up in a big tournament and like, say all the Chiefs
receivers were sub 4 K, which we like saw happen and you just
were like, I'm going to do my, I'm gonna fade.
Kelsey in the running game. I'm gonna do my homes in three
of the chief wide receivers because it's going to chew up
only 12 km my salary, but you wouldn't do.
Three cheap wide receivers and Kelsey with the thing and I kind
of think about it this way. Well, well actually I think you
would, if it was you can up for the Mille maker.
So think about it, think about it.
You would never do that in DFS because your floor would be too
low with the correlations there, right?
Yeah. So, because there's no way that
for Chiefs pass, catchers are all going to land at an optimal
lineup, but because if actively, it's like the FanDuel drop
score, they used to have four NBA where I just get to take the
best of Richie James MBS and skies score for that week and it
doesn't matter if the other two guys get zero, you know, George
Pickens puts up 18 and great, you know, Greg torch gets a lot.
Or whatever, you know, and we call and we call that good.
I actually think you would do that if you had the ability to
just select the best score of the contributing wide receiver,
and also in a lot of these universes, I mean, this is more
micro than macro strategy stuff. But like the fact that canaries
Tony could so easily just not be a starting player for the Kansas
City. Chiefs actually actually makes
these guys a little bit more interesting in this format, but
the same thing would be true of like the bills guys, right?
Where You know, Shakir and Hardy, I think are extremely
good pics, Shakira Hardy and nox are all extremely good pics,
with Josh Allen and this format maybe even better actually.
In fact almost assuredly better than they are in Vespa Maniac
because I don't think one of them is really going to win the
job over the other. In the other thing I think about
of why I don't like the like expensive Giga stack stuff is
again, if you're thinking about how and I do think dupes are
going to be a concern in here and say like you're making that
correlate. At Chiefs Gober.
But then there's going to be teams that hit the individual
parlay of like this was the Tony week with Pacheco with Richie
James, and they're going to have those three pieces by themselves
without all the other extra Chief stuff because they hit
that par Les better than you just the way we see it in the
Milling maker, right? Like, there's so many times you
might be on the Block, but they just took the one piece instead
of all of them. And that's the thing I think you
have to realize, it's like you're going to the top three
Chief scores. There's how many hundreds and
hundreds of teams are going to have those at the top of the
leaderboard. And I think using too much to
correlate on a team is going to really limit the both the
uniqueness and the Firepower of the rest of your lineup.
Yeah, so I agree with that. I think what I'm thinking
through Pete is like the reason it's different from DFS, right?
Is even that scenario, you just described where another team has
a better version of your team because they just took the right
three pieces and they didn't take the Noah gray.
And Estimates and all this extra garbage at the end, like, even
for that team. Like just inherently in the
structure of basketball, you can only start eat at of your 18
pieces. So like, even the teams that
smash like wait, quote unquote, wasted 10 picks on something
else, right? So, like, I'm okay with like,
wasting one of my 10 picks like on a correlated piece, like
truck, given that it's like cost adjusted.
Like I'm okay knowing when I take Richie James and 17th much
you've stacked like knowing that could be a waste Of Peace.
Because the opportunity cost was like, we talked about DeVante
Parker Isaiah halogens, where I agree with you is like these
really uncorrelated weekly outcomes that are really
expensive. I want to be very careful to
avoid like the quarterback running backs tax.
I love in Basketball Mania because of how it can work.
In the playoff weeks were like Daniel Jones and go off one week
Berkeley and go off one week. Like they're not correlated week
to week, but that could carry you, the playoffs.
I'm probably like those QB running backs tax or like Right,
running back wide receiver on the same team Stax.
I'm like very more cautious to avoid if they're really
expensive, but given their cheap enough, I'm actually, like, feel
like I'm okay, like quote, unquote like wasting or like
over stacking a certain game knowing that like every team has
to waste 10 picks, right? But what I got, I'm yeah, God,
the one exception I would make for it is because I do think the
uniqueness element is going to actually end up being Being big
is, I would want to use say, in that Mahomes example, I would
really like to use Justin Ross, Richie, James fucking Justin
Watson or whatever. You're basically trying to hit
remember the Mac Collins week last year.
We're just like out of nowhere. He dropped like oh yeah, right,
I don't remember because he was thirty percent in cash and have
them use the correlation tiebreaker to get you on these
unique pieces. And then, you know, hey, the
majority of these Chiefs are going to be 100% raw stirred in
this contest. But if you get that one, That's
going to be the unique Chiefs piece that levels you up.
Whereas someone was mentioning like, oh, in DFS Mahomes would
be 20%, but here he's 8%. 8% of 261,000 is over 20,000 Mahomes
teams. So like the 80% does it be?
But we're talking about 20,000 teams in a given week that
you're competing with, and that's well, but but okay, but
start to start to break it down a little bit.
Let's say I'm going to I'm going to conservatively, call it ten
percent of teams are going to be constructed.
So poorly The there it's impossible to win right?
So knock out two thousand homes teams there then start to
segment it down more how many more homes teams have Kelsey?
Right 4%, probably roughly or a 4% of the total teams ish
because we have we have some ownership data and calcium homes
are the most common brown one around to pairing.
So if you're doing non Kelsey Mahomes teams, then break it
down even further and go into what you're saying, right?
Right. Justin Watson, Richie James, MBS
you're starting to get into. It sounds like a lot of teams
but the total number of teams that have something like know,
Kelsey Mahomes mvs rice and Richie James is it's going to be
much lower than it sounds. When you say it that way.
Yeah and I would just argue that it's still a bigger team and I
feel it's still about 100 teams or something.
My biggest push back is just like Giga stacking at expensive
prices where you're paying a premium and you're not
Feathering in the unique guys at the end.
That's where I think you can get into trouble.
Yeah, my soul on board with that.
So I just disagree on the degree to, which yeah, he goes.
Would you be taking like Boston, Scott and Quest Watkins and
stuff like that? Because I think you probably
should Right? But I wouldn't do that.
I would just never do start my draft hurts or let's just see,
who would you need to take first a jaybird room around hurts and
say Devante miraculously Falls and then you go ghadir that like
I'm just never going to start with those with those four in
there because I just think I'm capping too much of my weekly
ceiling by Giga stacking. Those guys, I would rather go
hurts or AJ Brown hurts and then gained well, kwesi and whoever
else. Want to toss in at the end like
the super cheap. Like that's how I would prefer
to play it through an elite offense because it goes back to
that thing and we're going to hop in a draft here too.
I do really think thinking about the distinction of over
stacking. Let's go back to best Ball Mania
like over stacking a team weeks, 1 through 14.
I honestly think that's like Game Theory optimal.
You're betting on undervalued offenses, if the offense rolls,
you're going to be getting those points every week different
directions. The reason you get in trouble
with it is in the Three uncorrelated Tournament, where
you're needing them to essentially, go for 40 points.
Points, three weeks in a row and if you're to massively exposed
to one offense, you're likely to flame out one of those weeks and
so this format lens itself, way more at there, literally 17,
uncorrelated tournaments, you're trying to hit the 99th
percentile outcome in those weeks.
I mean it becomes your pee. You're exactly correct like the
cheaper the offenses the more the correlated bet benefits you
because it's just stating it's showing that the prices were
wrong. Yeah, we can see talking about
this. I just wanted to get us going in
a draft as well. Yeah, yeah, I think it's super
interesting here I hopped into Davis.
Couldn't resist, couldn't just join a so it's me and Sam versus
Davis, your cut out of this one. Well, what am I going to do?
Dude, the Evo my time bro. Come on, here he limits.
Are you in the same way in the save one is US?
Yeah, I don't see you. Oh yeah.
Here you is. So how about this from an ATP
perspective. Sam in this goes back to my kind
of the onesie, things we are seeing in these do have
different a DPS than best while many we have Travis Kelce at 13
so it does appear that the market is starting to Value the
elite ones. He's more in this format.
Yeah and I know this is tough for me.
I don't know entirely how I feel but If this is really true that
like tight ends should be valued this high in like a one-week
format or quarterback should be valued this high in a 1 week
format. That I think it suggests to me
that like, they're undervalued now and I understand the
tournaments are different. I'm not saying they're the same
but like a I still think that like Travis Kelce, it going
three like Jamar Chase. There's a difference between a
Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson and CNC Spike week versus Travis
Kelce Spike week like ya know, I don't That's, I don't know.
Don't like that. That is true.
So I just think that like it's
like I get the elite onesies should.
But comparatively comparatively though because the burden of
scoring is lower at tight end, you're going to get you're going
to get more, right? Because 27 for Kelsey might beat
every other tight end by 10 and it gives.
Well, the thing is the hand, let's make this pic Sam.
We're on the clock. Eckler goes digs, Lambie Jean
Adams, chub, who do you want to do?
I kind of like lamb just because if you can get the quarterback
for cheaper, what are you? That's yeah.
That's what I that's who I would take if I was you guys.
I also think like, I mean, I still liked eggs but I think
Lambs has higher single week upside with how much the bills
passed the ball around like Diggs is just never going to
have a game anymore where he's getting like a thirty percent
Target share the way they run that offense.
Yeah. I still think you guys do you
guys agree that this format is absolutely perfect for 0 or B?
Yes, yeah. Yeah, I think it's a pet like I
think it depends what you do, but I definitely can see that.
Let's see. So should we be targeting?
This is where it like, is this too early to start thinking
about like divisions? No, I don't think Joey, this is
the part of the game tree. I haven't explored yet.
So if we want to start Galaxy branding, some of that stuff.
I also to this the point where I was saying where I feel pretty
strongly about the ones. He's like I have no problem
taking Mahomes or or hurts here in building out, Elite onesies
backwards. That as well.
I would take my homes over hurts because we're going to miss out
on her, to stop a Skechers, right?
Whereas yeah, so we can still, we can get some stress test, our
idea here, hang on, I gotta push back on this in the chat. 0r B
teams are dead early. Why make your team's dead early?
You are not trying to win every week, like I'm sorry.
You cannot win every week. You were trying to build a team
that fucking runs hotter than the sun on the most beautiful
day. I just wanted one.
You want to Mentor? You on am in cash three times
for a little to X. If you want a big cash, this
contest, like I won't shame them in Cashiers but you're playing
the wrong tournament, if you're trying to turn your $15 into 30
like there's what's that, what's the right tournament?
What's the right thing to do? With my fifth individual
12-person, the MFL tender, those still going to go do an impact
their business for us, we just made a genius pick because the
NFC East plays they have. The us this year which we
totally knew when you made this big.
Yes. So keep you updated on the
divisional, correlations. Yeah, so case.
Yeah, I guess that means any Fuck.
This is this is where I've never done one of these.
So like we should in theory, we should be targeting players and
either Kansas City's division. So Raiders Chargers doubters or
like giants. Commanders Dallas, Eagles.
I guess, maybe we just treat us. Say, fuck the eels because we're
not going to get their best players of this point and like I
love saying, fuck the eagle. Let's do it.
Yeah, let's do that. Let's do that.
This is, yeah, it's a it's I understand why people are so
frothy for this, right? Like it's honestly this is more
fun to think about, than best Ball Mania right now, you know.
But I do think it's also one of those things where like if some
bro started spinning up SIMs and like doing all the math right
now, I think they'd have a huge Edge on.
Even even Brad's Bros who have done no math.
And are just you know, thinking about thinking that's why I
think the structure is the biggest Edge to hammer out first
and basically, just really like the whole reason, like pushing
structures and best Ball Mania works, right?
Is because you're wanting to like supercharged the other
parts of your roster. If you do a hyper fragile build
you only take three running backs.
You're like betting that you're right.
I think you want to take that ethos and push it even further
in this thing. You're trying to just bet you're
right for a single week and based on these bets like we
shouldn't take another quarterback.
Like we have made such a big bet that Mahomes is going to be what
the top score 6 out of these 17 weeks.
And we're now going to build a team that can hopefully take it
down. One of those six weeks Mahomes
is the top scorer. Yeah, I think if you go with the
quarterback early you should I can see taking two quarterbacks
if you like pass on the Elites for sure.
But without we built 30, Keenan, Allen Chargers, by the Chiefs
twice, I'm down. Oh yes.
I think they also do, I would see this would be, I would much
rather take Depot because Debo feels like a guy who can put up
multiple 40 Burgers over the course of a season.
I would. Yeah, this is, yeah, this is
where you get into like the individual player versus the
correlation. Like, I don't feel strongly
either way. Correlation, feels low on
Keenan. The Keenan on Chiefs blow up
game is where the Chiefs fucking steamroll.
The Chargers isn't Keenan going 12 for one eighty and two
touchdowns. I don't know.
Wow, this room is about to let me cook the Wilkin.
Ater better, not take Depot right here.
He's going to oh I forgot my wife Davis.
This is a good point too. About some of the the divisional
stuff is some of those games Fallen week. 18 in the weekly
winners contest does only go through 17 weeks.
Justin Fields feels like the perfect guy for this format
because you don't even need to take any of his teammates with
him. Just get just get the 37-point
week where he scores, three rushing touchdowns.
I was thinking about this, too, but I think I'm almost always
going to do commit with my Fields teams just because
because you got Downs because so correlated and if he has that
massive, I think Camille there's there's you know, there's no
scenario in which commits finishes as the Top tight end in
a week without multiple touchdowns.
There's no 11 reception 180 yard James in there.
What do you like it thicker either Judy or Mike Williams?
Yeah, probably just probably Judy.
Just gotta think and like we said and individual week I think
Ian and Mike Williams both have they both could explode I guess
but yeah I'll be there. I do too.
And also yeah I think I personally just like Like
Quinton Johnson cost adjusted more than Mike Williams.
So that always helps me like break the tie.
Whereas we just talked about, like, man, the Sutton stuff is
his tough. If we're looking for, like, a
Denver guy that really has, that ceiling early.
Yeah, so Davis, you did talk about Ramon Dre, the chat is
divided, some people like Bully running back over 0 R be in this
format. What about the what do you think
in there with the raimondo? Correct.
Other than just being a nice value relative to his regular
ATP. I mean it just seems it.
Well I think one it frees me up from panicking and making a bad
pick like a mile Sanders or a Pacheco like naked or whatever.
Like just mentally it soothes me a little bit to see.
See the one running back in there and I mean, Ramon Dre,
we've already seen insane workload weekly feelings for him
like over the course of the Year could peer strong.
Could Ty Montgomery could Kevin Harris work in more?
Sure. But there were multiple games
last year were moderate was playing 90% of the running back
snaps. So feels like it sets.
It like, he will have one game with 30 or more have PPR points
and probably a handful of 20-plus.
Even if his fantasy points per game is only like, Like 18 and a
half or whatever. And also I mean, I don't think
he correlates horribly with Matt Jones if I wanted to go that
direction and around 18 as my second quarterback, you know,
feels like he could catch a touchdown, two touchdowns or
whatever like that doesn't like he, the theory behind worm
Andres that he will be working in the passing game.
LG asking our thoughts on this start from Team for CMC parlor,
Jacob? So, I mean, I don't love this
for this format. However, if I did do this, and I
think it's viable, I would not take another running back,
probably the entire draft. Yeah, in this format, I think
it's interesting to do those, because, like the data does show
the the top 12 running backs by ATP, just have a huge percentage
of their Spike week. So if you just go three running
backs and then stack up like this guy took Watson if it's
plan is to stack up like pass catchers on offenses with
quarterbacks later, I kind of like that.
We're like the running backs are less correlated.
You just take the good ones and then let me try to hit the notes
on some like less popular passing a tax.
I think that's definitely my body.
I do like that idea. Yeah I'll be watching out to see
if he stops at three or I think I think maybe four running backs
is okay but definitely no more than four.
I built all thinking about this more.
I love the idea of stacking the lions in the Saints because Dumb
games. Just get fucking weird, right?
Like we don't know what you remember, the Detroit Seattle
game. It was like the 11th highest
scoring game in NFL history last year.
Like, I do love that idea of just consistently getting
exposure to those nuts games. Mmm.
All right, Sam. We're on the clock here.
The divisional Bros are going to have to help me out.
I'm not seeing the board and that divisional thing.
Fuck do we do Tony. This is Tony to pick on this
team. He I'm not, I'm not, I'm not
trying to be Tony or I would take one of these running backs,
I can take Karen Jones or tell we have any correlations of,
let's let's just get Tony and then if we do want to go the
running back route. Okay, Davis is probably not
going to be taking a running back here.
I'm gonna, I'm gonna double tap, I'm going to double tap two wide
receivers here. This around Tony is painful If
your point I like this is this is where I start thinking
through like to the thing of like take three running backs
and stop like shouldn't we stop with like five or six wide
receivers in this team to potentially like the only the
only? All right, I got a guy got to be
with you. The only guys here I was just
going to say Sam I would on this team be very interested in the
Richie James, Justin Ross or even one more of like the mvs,
like we're just spraying praying, the wide receivers late
on the Chiefs. Waller here.
What do you guys think about taking Waller ahead of ATP to
lock in the last Elite tight end?
Really. That that also, that I could
even possibly correlate. Do you think that's giving up
too much ATP value? No, I don't think so because I
was going to take I was gonna take lock it, but he just went I
mean, Walters got my fucking my fucking what.
Anyway, dude, you know, I thought I had so I guess it's a
non-starter Sam. I would say to this is the spot
where like I'm pushed now starting to like really think
through like my thesis and how I'm playing it.
And even though it's a head ATP technically or whatever, but I
would give both All our and ghadir a long hard.
Look at this spot. Maybe not ghadir, because we're
out on the Eagles Waller go. So maybe that's.
Yeah. So actually I'm okay with
Goddard. I actually look the Eagles and
Chiefs of the Same by week. So I like that element of it.
We they play each other. Goddard could be the piece that
goes off. He's the last Elite tight end, I
kind of like it. Let's be honest II.
Think my just hunch is that it is it is interesting that you
said like so Kelsey is going ahead of his BBM, atpg George
kittel Goes ahead of his BB matp pits goes way ahead here,
Hawkinson actually goes slightly after, and then Waller got.
So it's like, some of these guys are arbitrarily getting pushed
up and others not, but I do think on the whole, they all
should be getting pushed up this cohort.
I agree. Also, don't take David
Montgomery. 40, spots ahead of ATP.
If you were drafted with me and Sam, dude, we just saw three
brains building this beautiful team.
Instead you had to go Rogue because here, the EV of your
Time. How much are we paying you over
here on? ATP?
Chasing, not enough, apparently free free 99 services.
So yeah, the last couple paychecks haven't cashed, it's
kind of weird. Yeah I to keep telling quraían
at something with his like offshore.
Yeah. So this is interesting fact,
because I guess fucking we can just give away our strategy but
like we definitely are going to be interested in probably two of
the Chiefs other like random guys later.
It feels like you're almost dead to have a Mahomes Team without
three of us pass catchers. Yeah.
And like I just want like I don't I'm not a believer in
Tony. I want us to be like I want us
to be live from home Spike week, so I want to be tacking on these
guys. Yes, I meet like I think that
Almost means like we should be just going like heavy running
back for the next couple rounds unless something really pops out
because we don't want like we bet big on Judy Keenan CD
already like don't do, we probably just want like six wide
receivers on this team and like just play the lotto game with a
bunch of running backs to try to get Spike weeks.
Yeah, the only thing I would say is I'm still fine being
conscious of like where the value pockets of the draft are
In like, in baseball Mania right now, generally, like the running
backs are the best picks on the board because all these wide
receivers have been wiped out. Like if we were to get a big
running back follower here, if Sanders and peers but otherwise
like all the best pics on the board are going to be wide
receiver and then you start to hit that that running back range
where all of those pics really tilt her running back.
So that's the only thing of like yeah I don't think we have to
blindly lock in on a position. If we don't like how the values
lining up. Why is Michael, why is Michael
Pittman, why is there a 30 spot Gap and where he's being picked
in this? I have no idea.
That seems like, that seems bizarre because you'd still want
him with Richardson. Yeah, I think so.
I think Pittman had like a seems like a very high weekly upside
guy so that's, I don't know, maybe that's just my personal
evaluation but I see him as like a bad projections, long bet, but
like a pretty sick like weekly upside with Richardson.
Yeah, I agree. Interesting.
So like on here, I was gonna be excited about Quinton Johnson
kind of with our chairs that if you want to go Pierce.
I'm fine with it. I also like Addison.
I wouldn't probably be. Yeah, I would probably be
pierced just knowing we're going to be taking wide receivers
later and yeah. I'm like, I would never, it's
funny because I would never take Addison over her Pierce over a
dozen any draft. But I think just like, yeah, I'm
trying to think through. Like we do want a bit, like, get
some running back ceiling. And I think we want a lot of
stabs at running backs in this in this next couple around
range. I think so it's almost more of
like a volume thing than like individually liking Pierce over
Addison as a bet. Yeah, I don't I don't mind
Pierce there and yeah, I if I think of like, I don't know,
I've also been on the camp to or I think Quinton Johnson Seems
like 95th percentile. Like upside cases are better
than Addison to. I would have pounded the table
for Johnson, but I didn't mind Pierce over Addison there.
Yeah, Johnson would have been fun.
Davis. I don't really know what to do
II was like, my brain felt so flustered right there.
After we make this pic, I do want to go back.
Hayden had a comment that I think we should talk about
because I think it's interesting relative to this team and the
tournament, but Sam looking here.
Now we're back into that that spot with like do U Tas on
Pacheco with a Mahomes team. Like do you guys want, you guys
want to look in and You guys want me to?
Yeah, okay. We don't have the choice.
I'm kind of glad we don't have the choice.
Yeah, doubt. So we already took CD.
Like I was saying pound running back, but I, I don't know.
Like, I don't really like Dalvin or shot white.
You could talk me into James Conner here.
Let me see how it's another tie Breakers.
I like I like I like going with basically playing this Dallas
premium double stack Without Ya Back.
Yeah I like it. Let's do it.
Um, okay, I wanted to pull up the thing from Hayden said
drafting, someone like ghadir without an elite QB.
Seems like a death sentence. If he goes off, then hurts goes
nuts. Not an issue with Mahomes here
though, the reason I disagree is because the weeks where the
weeks were going to be live to win.
Are the weeks Mahomes, is the best quarterback in the pool?
And there are certainly weeks where R Goddard could have two
touchdowns in hertz, doesn't outscore Patrick Mahomes?
I think it's more of an issue. If you don't have that Elite QB,
and you have hurts because then you're going to get lap there.
But we have one of the few quarterbacks who can hang with
hurts and points per game. And we've also seen the Eagles
offense be very concentrated about one player.
Like you get the AJ Brown game, you get the Devon to Smith game,
you get the Dallas Carter game. So I don't mind just getting the
structural Elite upside there, knowing Holmes is going to keep
Pace with hurts in those scenarios where we're winning.
Yeah, I think. And I think, yeah, Hayden's
comment. I feel like yeah, he said not an
issue with my arms. I would I would agree with him,
I think, right? Like if we didn't take an elite
quarterback. Yeah.
Trying to go head-to-head with fucking Matt Stafford versus
Jalen hurd's. I would definitely not want
Goddard on those teams. I don't think.
Yeah. So it is.
Yeah it got her is a very interesting pick like I think
you have to be careful about when you're taking him.
Yeah, okay, that's got a strike off.
Some players attached to a leaky B's, if you don't have one
yourself. And this is why just like, I
want that Elite quarterback in that Elite tight end because
they kind of work in conjunction with each other, right?
Where you're making sure that you're not getting bodied by any
of the of the field from just like a ceiling perspective about
those positions. Yeah because that that feels
that feels like it's going to be a real problem in.
This is just, you know, weeks that that Kelsey Mahomes hurts,
whatever that these guys go off, it's going to be so hard to not
have a lie to those positions like I don't know.
Feels like if you don't have at least one Elite quarterback or
tight end, it feels like you almost.
Can't win a week. I don't know.
I'm sure I'll obviously that's not true, but that's just kind
of the way intuitively that it feels.
I think it's yet. I almost think that like, if
we're pricing up Mahomes Allen Etc, then like Daniel Jones like
Anthony Richardson to, they should be way priced up to
because I think there are like a set of those quarterbacks.
Like, we've seen it with Daniel Jones, he can have that massive
Spike, we crushing, we've seen it with to he can out that
massive Spike week, like I think Those guys, if we are pressing
up the quarterbacks, those guys should be elevated to like you.
I don't know. I'm like, kind of okay, invest
while Mania maybe doing like like Stafford.
Like Kyler Murray and CJ Stroud. I don't ya bit but like I think
it's viable in this tournament. I think that strategy is maybe
like closer to dead. I do see that the the piece meal
together, three, quarterbacks type stuff.
Yeah, like I'm over little ceiling little starting like,
yeah, I love Love so much. Anthony Richardson, Derek Carr
Brock Purdy. To me that is like the perfect
three quarterback, Festival Mania room and I would like
never do that in this, I think. Um, the other thing.
So, real quick on this roasting us for our canaries Tony.
I don't even think Sam and I collectively like Tony where I
bet were both way under weight on him but when you don't have
Kelsey and we're betting on Mahomes to be a top quarterback,
why do people to know he's coming along for the ride for
that? Why not let man?
Yeah I mean you got one guy. Hi Dave Gibson or Sky, more
would be the two that I would be into?
I don't know, I would probably go Gibson.
I don't mind waiting on receiver.
This other guy options in Kansas City.
Sorry, what were you saying? What was the other guy?
Maybe I Won't Say I'm in case he comes back to us, okay.
What were you saying Davis? It's just this guy like weed,
these Justin Ross. Slappy's we had another we had
another Justin Ross sloppy like he's never going to play a snap
in the NFL. White people got to stop enough.
I just realized Washington is in the NFC East so that was another
genius pick from us. Stack in the debate.
Thank you. I love raccoon growling our git
act. Yeah.
Hi T. Running back room where montre
David Montgomery AJ Dylan. A lot of, a lot of tea.
A lot of big big quads that quads.
Well, is he or not? Or is your Madre a hero are be
40. R&B Burrows.
He's kind of in the middle, he's not at the years ideas like
Jacobs or Derrick Henry, not at all.
Derrick Henry, Derrick Henry way worse for this contest because
you only get him against the Texans twice.
So I was going to suggest Rashad Penny as a guy that I just think
has just massive single game. I mean we've seen it and we have
a slight bet on the Eagles here. Yeah, I would smash that, I
would go Penny because the point I was going to start to bring up
in, like we talked about all the different Different strategy,
considerations for this tournament.
I do think like, for me the second one.
Honestly, after just pure, like structure would be, who are the
players that legitimately have like 30 point upside in a single
week scenario? And I know you're not gonna be
able to find those guys that every single portion of the
draft. But I do think some of the
running backs in this range Penny specifically have that
upside like way more like thinking of like, I don't know,
even Penny versus like a j. Dylan.
And I like both of these That's but it is a penny getting to 30
points at a higher frequency than AJ.
Dillon is over like a simulation of 1,000 games.
Probably yeah. Probably.
Yeah. But I think they both the point.
Is they both on Pat? Like I think we've seen it.
If Aaron Jones goes down, I think Green Bay's comfortable
with AJ Dylan Workhorse back and like he could fall into enough
volume or it could happen. I'm just like the eagles
offense. That's where I break the tie
between those two guys is just like they both need some things
to fall into place for it to work, but I just feel so much
better with the Eagles offense then than Jordan.
But I do like, I guess that is like, and I mean, we were kind
of having that conversation with Keenan verse Tebow, right?
Where, and I think I have to be I have in my head, obviously,
right? Like, my biases of like, this
guy has upside. This guy doesn't, but like, I do
think being able to like quantify, like kind of like the
bell curve like range of outcomes for these guys hitting
their 95th percentile ceiling and how frequently that occurs
like going back to our whole better and best ball joke from
two years ago of like which of these guys because the 15 Weeks
like, that is very valuable and best Ball Mania for just get, it
doesn't, it doesn't fucking matter in this.
Exactly. And so I'm saying, I think we
should be even tilting the ADP board even heavier in favor of
that. I just want to make sure you're
not making big mistakes because you're doing bro.
Science like this guy has more upside but it's like does he
actually? But with a guy like Penny I feel
like we have enough of a track record to know that being the
case. Yeah, I feel like honestly,
sometimes people Overlook just like it's like stupid analysis.
No one wants to do it but it's like looking at a player's
history and seeing if they have done it like yes, I say it with
DeVante Parker, it's stupid to like read Devante Barker's box
scores like you feel like an idiot for doing it, but like
he's done. He's had huge weeks in the past.
Like, a lot of the guys. I pick 190 haven't like that.
Sounds like dumb analysis, but I think it's like, sometimes
that's the best we can do, right?
Like, if a guy's done it before, it's a kind of means something.
To me, I love that Davis is doing his small cast met where
he has like a long side conversation in the chat, during
the host. You're still.
You about Justin Ross. The Justin Ross is really God's
you really, okay. The Chiefs have 19 wide
receivers and and people just like, Richie, James, never mind.
We don't need to, we don't need to do this this.
Now Sam, we also find ourselves in another spot here where like
there's no reason. I don't think we take DAC.
We've already made our bet but that he started to really fall
because no one else. No, you guys, you guys should
absolutely take that back. What are you?
I think at this point I would, I'm not sure about it does like,
Hang on, but hang on real quick Sam.
Should we do McKinnon first and then, yeah.
But Dave is this goes back to the thing.
We don't want other outs, we are building this team around
Mahomes being the top scorer and we're going to benefit my guess,
my guess is, is that that's probably pretty wrong to do with
only two, only one out when you have a team roster spot.
So I guess my guess is is that Leone or someone is going to run
the math and be like just building it.
With one out is bad. I'd like, I see both sides of
it. But like Pete, don't you think
this is like a very specific circumstances.
We've been betting on all NFC east teams like that, like DAC
is Fallin, like for I feel like in general, you're right.
But like I think it reaches the point where I'm like look we
only spent like what an 11th round pick on McKinnon and a
fifth-round pick on Tony like those guys.
Here's what I would say, this is where it's going to get
interesting. I would rather further Without
our bet on Dallas with Michael Gallup here then taking DAC.
No no that's that's it has to be wrong.
I would I would eat a CEO take her.
She tries actually Oprah got one.
Yes, absolutely fine with that. I really I really don't, I think
Petey. I think people are getting way
too caught up on wanting to be live multiple weeks.
In this tournament as opposed to trying to win it one week now.
Go look at their tails, mr. Davis heater.
This is terrible, dude. I actually, I feel confident in
this, that only. Building it only building it to
have good EV for one team for one group of players to spike
is, I mean, I just know for a fact, if you started to game out
the EV that having the two chances at twenty thousand
dollars first place. Theoretically, instead of one on
a given week, you're going to be much better because you're
watering down both of those two Avenues chances for getting
there. I don't II disagree that, it's
watering it down because the DAC.
Part is so key, and the McKinnon part will be a very small key.
I mean what that part isn't key because Dak doesn't separate
from the quarterback field when he hits.
Well, I mean that's not true. If you look at the entirety of
his career now you could argue it's true in this context with
McCarthy and Schottenheimer sure I could.
Maybe I can maybe be swayed by that, but I'm saying let's take
micro stuff out of it man. A crow.
Apply it. Would I rather have two
quarterbacks three pass catchers each or one quarterback.
Five pass catchers with that. One quarterback or five
teammates. I would I would rather have the
two with three of their teammates as opposed to one with
fibers teammates. Yeah, I think I think people see
I'm extremely confident this, we and I'm the ACT.
We need Leone to run the numbers.
Yeah, I think people are going to play this format way way too
scared. Davis.
It's the same way of how many, how many 150 Max are in DFS
lock. A QB wide receiver stack, or a
double stack and then, who would out of their minds around?
M, tell them Peter. They're, they're cowards.
They just do, they have telling you, the compressor little
button on their computer? I think there's a point where,
like people like let's say you're the extreme like you're
not taking DAC and like round 18.
Like, in this build, like I would you take it that far like,
or is there a price at which on this build you would have taken
back? No, I think there is.
I do think in the same way, like I've taken Kyler Murray 40 picks
past ATP on a Jalen hurts team as my third quarterback, like I
will tilt it here, but when we're building up, we have such
an I'm glad you brought up Rashi rice but we have such a big bet
on Mahomes here into the Passover, like one of his
potential upside picks. Just make no sense.
I agree there, we needed. If she I think we should put
this, this argument is also suggesting another running back
is going to be the quarterback one every week, which is will
not happen. I would go probably algier for
the contingent upside or one of the Chicago backs.
I was thinking of I really like the contingent value of algae or
here, right? Because we do not care about any
Standalone value, this isn't a scenario where Bijan Robinson
gets her, the the the nine points that Devin Singletary,
grinds out, you know, especially only a matter ABS.
Yeah, matters, absolutely, not at all.
I think, Davis were we fundamentally disagree?
I really think how massive this contest is and how hard it's
gonna be to finish. In the top ten, I really do not
think you should be worrying about, like, can I have a good
team this week and then yeah, I think I think that's very, I
think that's very reductivist. I think that's very just live a
little type Vibes, like I think I think you want to have more, I
think whatever the correct decision to add expected value
is is right. I'm pretty confident my side is
Right, obviously, I'm not a fucking mathematician, so I
could I could definitely be wrong, but I'm pretty confident
that the Backward, I think having a grapple teammates.
I think we're trapped by our other best ball Drafting and
it's very fun. And we're so used to getting
multiple, quarterbacks, multiple double Stacks, all that.
In the way these uncorrelated tournaments work in best Ball
Mania where you can like ping-pong back and forth and you
don't need the 99th percentile outcome.
You just need like 80th percentile on those Stacks to
get you through. In this you need the
tippity-top. You need the fucking nuts in the
milly maker to hit it here and I think your capping, your nut
upside there, with, with the group, And 61,000, though it's
again I'm saying to yourselves members or I was gonna say mr.
Jerome Ford, what do you like Gomez?
Yeah. Yeah.
Let's do it. All right, and you can actually
stop on there. We can stop on Casey stuff that
we got. We got Mom's triple stack now,
right? It would only be if we wanted to
to add a uniqueness pick in and round 18, but I think
structurally, we can stop. So, I did, yeah.
I guess we're going one, quarterback, one side.
Then we could do like eight running backs and eight.
Wide receivers, I do that. So I want to say one thing on
you guys debate, because I think it's interesting and I think
like, it is something that needs to be simulated out because
like, I think it's really complicated but like I think
there is some element p 2 where you do want like two two outs
from quarterbacks and I'm not sure in our specific instance it
was Autumn. I'm not saying that but like in
general you you're going to have your two teams so you have two
teams tax right. You're then going to have coal a
cohort of like 12 other players. And when that like uncorrelated
cohort, that's not attached to your, your quarterback sacks
goes off. You also need your quarterback
sack to go off, right? And like, giving your son
yourself to chances at that quarterback sack going off, when
your other cohort goes off? Like I think there is something
to that. Now, when you spend a second
round pick on my home's, maybe you say there's no point in
trying to gain that out, but it still is like, But we always
talk about a better version or the teams, like this is a huge
tournament 200,000 teams but like the combinatorics of like,
18 individual players, like is still, like, No One's Gonna have
an identical team to you. No one.
Nope, probably not even 10:00 overlapping players, right?
Even, even even the combinatorics of ten overlapping
players, how often is that going to happen?
Like, they're like, I'm sure it will happen.
I'm sure someone could pull up an instance where you know,
they're sitting there and 10 players are duped, but even That
is crazy and even getting into, how many teams have Dak?
CD Cooks, Gallup, Jake Ferguson or something.
Even that number is way lower than your napkin math would
think. Because the combinatoric SAR
just so intense. The thing to I would maybe be a
little bit more open to with the second quarterback is on the
profile of the quarterback and what kind of upside they have?
I Do not think with DAC with how little he runs that he has a lot
of opportunities of separating from the rest of the quarterback
field. So that's the point.
I think I can capture all the benefits of a Dak good season
through his pass catchers. Now if we wanted to have the
argument of like okay Anthony Richardson falling and it's like
he rips off a couple 50-yard touchdown runs like we saw from
feel the running that a running quarterback from open because
the running quarterbacks are different in your team to
specifically because Richardson could be the highest scoring
quarter. At any given week and not bring
any of his teammates with him. Andy optimal lineup.
So that makes it different. Yeah, I don't know.
Yeah, we can still keep talking about.
I think it's interesting, like, people are saying in the chat.
This is literally the Crux of the contest like what were
debating in like how you push it is like, what the whole?
Why the contest is fun. Let's see here.
So like these Miami or the Carol I like mostly?
Yeah, yeah. I like most heard a lot in this
format do. You do you prefer him to Jeff
Wilson? I like both but most are
probably more the home run, hitter.
Yeah, let's yeah. No starts fine.
I don't know the strong preference.
So we're at 1671 build. This is like how my builds in
these least, my fast rap build last night and some of my slow
draft ones are shaping up. I think we're probably gonna
more running backs in a wide receiver.
Yeah, I was thinking like a second tight end I think could
make some sense with Goddard because like we do talk about
like delete deletes you price up because when they separated so
big but like there's weeks where the tight end once.
Scores like 16 points and like I don't know, I guess I don't want
to like ghadir. It's going to have so many Duds
this year like that, to be wanna do.
I think I mean honestly like that's how I'm not opposed to
itself. Yeah, I'm not opposed to a
second tight in this build and this would be where I would
really want to be specific with like kind of the profiles, you
know. We're targeting.
Like I do like a sickie. I think he's like a
two-touchdown type guy if you wanted to play a contingent bet
with like an Isaiah likely, and you're like, that's kind
Interesting to me as a second tight end you can.
Maybe wait and grab it. Should we grab another running
back first? Like?
Yeah. I'd probably go like Hubbard.
See, Pat? Jeff Wilson.
I like Hubbard, just because I do think he could.
What if Sanders gets hurt? Yeah, he's a good kid.
He's pure condition. Um, Davis, what did you do here?
Claypool. And I just, I'm just make a
stacking the two quarterbacks that I have.
I have a running back with each of my quarterbacks.
I have a white two wide receivers with goth one wide
receiver with fields and then I have Commit and laporta with
with them as well. Yeah.
It. So I'm doing, I'm doing two
bites at the Apple. Yeah, it's really what other
what other ATP shifts? Do you guys think we might see
in in this contest relative to best ball mainly like we got our
guy Millionaire karein right in Threads about Robert Woods out
here like Rob would that was should be going undrafted and
this cop can we can we can we just the guy wins two million
dollars and the next thing you fucking know he's writing
multi-pronged Dreads about a guy who was like so unlikely to
matter because he dropped the boys.
I mean it's really it's just I couldn't believe it, he he he I
don't know man money money really changes you but I do
think like but it comes to my point with this contest, right?
Like that kind of production Angeles in in this format to in
a lot of the stuff even when we're talking about the dead
roster spots, I do not give a fuck about dead roster spots in
this completely. Like I, yeah, like care about A
best Ball Mania and you're not doing dumb stuff, right?
You're not taking Jameson Williams in the second round,
but Jameson Williams is way better for this contest and best
homemade of percent 100%. Yeah.
I guess the dead roster spots saying the way.
I think about it as like when I get to the playoffs.
Like I just like having the wide receiver who sucks and all of
his emission efficiency metrics are garbage but he's running 90%
of the routes and out there. I'm actually kind of excited
about getting that guy. Unlike the 17th or 18th round
because you could do the DeVante Parker thing, could do the matte
Collins thing, right? So, like, I guess I still care.
I think, I still care about dead roster spots.
Like, I don't, you want as many live I guess.
It is a little different because like you only care about one
week and not consecutive zeros, zeros don't matter and like
eight points and 12 points, don't matter.
At all. So it's just about it's just
amount the amount of weeks each roster spot can produce, you
know, 90th percentile, outcomes for whatever they are.
Yeah, that's fair. I would probably Pete.
I'm probably thinking roster constructionwise like a running
back in a tight end here. Unless there's a wide receiver,
you really? I'm still in the Richie James on
this team but he would be the only wide receiver I'd really
come. Yeah for me it would have to be
achieved wide receiver. Yes.
In this goes back to our conversation of like without
Kelsey without Pacheco. I'm fine playing this through.
You know, a triple stack with the chief.
I kind of like James, I think. All right, look out, I'm open,
Tony and Rise. Yeah, yeah, how would you guys
take my homes and not take James, dude, it's a must.
We just did and then I'm with you.
I if we have a tight end who we think has like legit upside, I'm
down to do that. Otherwise I'm Fully on board
with a running back. Yeah, for me it would be like
mayor cuz the Chiefs will play the Raiders twice.
So that's kind of interesting, I guess.
No. Agretti is kind of Galaxy brain.
Interesting in a way. Where the running backs who
solve Jeff Wilson, Jeff Wilson still there.
This would be a spot. I mean, I like Jeff Wilson
Pierre, strong or kind of like I would have, I think I would have
taken strong. I think all these contingent
value, guys are just so much better in this like because 10
weeks of zeros from these guys matters, not at all if you get
two weeks where Samir white is the straight up starter or
whoever. Yeah.
I would like to know. What do you really have three?
Real man takes Jody Fortson here.
We're not doing that. Who do you want to talk about?
Give me give me mayor, okay. I just think there's something
to like 11 mayor, I think has some some upside down the
stretch and to like that I already said this point but like
if Mom in my home Spike weeks, if Dallas ghadir just like has
his dogs which you will throughout the year like that
really hurts us. Like, I think we could still win
this with like a 12 at tie down from Michael Mayer, right?
And like giving ourselves that out I think is, is valuable
like, and that's the thing. Basically, every team can tell
themselves this, right? Because Titan is such a low
scoring position is going. Like I was gonna say, There are
I think Sam you said it earlier, right?
Like there's going to be a week where the highest-scoring Titan
is 16 points and you can be like free for all week whoever is
separating at the other positions to take it.
Yeah. Where's we will have like if
Kyle pits drops like a 30 burger like it's going to be Kyle pits
week. It's going to be who built the
best team around, file pits. You know how when you finish a
best Ball Mania, three, draft and sometimes you're like this
team is just cannot win. Like it just it can't this team
is not winning a million dollars.
I think, every single person who drafts a weekly winners is like,
well, you know, No, you no, you no.
You just, you just don't know. Like, maybe maybe the kind of
the exact combination of players you need in weekend, like, it's
after doing this. Once it's an extremely I got
this is an addicting draft format for sure.
Yeah. Yeah.
And that's what the other Zack says, having different opinions
makes these shows so much more informative because the reality
is none of us really won't know what's viable until 23 years of
this 31st. I mean, it Dave, and I like
completely think about this tournament differently which is
the goal of this tournament, right?
Like the whole thing that's fun and I always said, like with
best of all Mania with how the prizes are tilted in week 17,
like your kind of, if you're not building for that in mind,
everyone should basically building similarly or relatively
similar in this you can someone can go be like I'm going to try
to win week 5 like if that's your goal.
Yes, you can build really good, be five teams and then if we had
10 people in the draft all doing different things, Why all of a
sudden, you see like a Michael Pittman fall are right?
Because like everyone's doing their own thing.
Ignoring this guy, I think maybe seeing big ATP fallers.
That feel weird is maybe a testament to people all trying
to accomplish different things in these drafts.
Yeah, my first reaction from that too.
Is I feel like Invest while many others like a couple tiebreakers
I have in mind but there's like not that many of them, right?
It sounds like but none of them apply here.
Yeah. But none of them fire.
But here also, I feel like there's like a million on every
pic. You could be like our the bye
week stacked up. Is it a divisional guy?
Are they playing each other? There's like, yeah, infinite
Spike. We are it's not swiping the
infinite tiebreakers for these pics.
Like it's it's a little overwhelming, but it's a really
interesting format. Yeah, I mean Pi 100%.
See what you're saying in this specific circumstance.
Like with the Mahomes Alan hurts whatever round two and and I
would have to I would have to think more deeply about that
like does so you have Mahomes and your opponent has t Higgins
or to Bob to Smith or whatever. So like how much of a projection
disadvantage are you wet? But I do think building a team
with multiple outside. I don't think it's waving the
White Flag. I don't think it's playing for
men caches. I do think it is just giving
yourself. I think it's providing a wider
surface area to 90th percentile outcomes, taking two
quarterbacks with multiples of their teammates in.
I'm not even a disagree on the 90th but we need 99.9%.
I'll outcome in this contest, that's what I'm pushing.
It's the same thing. Like when we talk about like
running back and quarterback pairings right where it's like,
I think that's like pretty good for the regular season and
probably even pretty good of ping-ponging you to the big 17
finals, but then as we saw like with pats lineup, like Berkeley
didn't hit his lineup because Daniel Jones went If like in
that really top and thing, those guys are going to be negatively
correlated and I just want every fucking bullet I can at a non
Mahomes position to try to build my home.
Super teams. I think it's really understand
what that Berkeley point is. Like, we have proof that you can
win, best Ball Mania with your round to pick counting for
nothing and week. 17. Can you have a good day?
Have a good week 16 either? Yeah.
Can't. But yeah.
The question is, like, can you win one of these weekly
tournaments with like your first round?
Like your second round pick not counting like that's gonna, I
think it would be really interesting to see is like the
teams that win this. And I think the answer is.
Yes, you can, but like more like less like so when more likely to
win this than best Ball Mania, I think.
Right. Or do you disagree?
I was going to say, less likely just because like best Almighty
of once you get to the finals, which only 450 people or
whatever and like the ownership is so skewed.
Like once you get there like Mike Evans would have been on
the optimal roster but he was only on like, two teams like he
didn't actually matter. Whereas In this tournament every
player is 8% or every meaningful players eight percent owned,
right? So like you can't get away with
like having a Super Sub optimal lineup because of that, but
like, let's say, let's say a second round pick gets injured,
right? Let's say let's say, say Quan
gets injured. How many like what would that
decree? So if you have 17 other active
players and sake, one's injured, how much does that?
Decrease, your weekly Equity? Like not that way.
Name that one? Yes.
If you're losing your second round, pick in this weekly
winners format you are. I don't want to say drawing dead
because anything is impossible, but you are so much more dead in
this than you are in best. Ball Mania.
Losing a second-round pick. Yeah, I don't know.
It's weird though, right? Because, like, I have to think
about that more before we want. Okay.
So what is the average, the average Max of every pick in the
second round on a weekly basis. Like on average, it says
somebody in the second round is going to put up like a T-50 30
burger, right? Sure.
Seemed like that's, you need to find out if your second on pick
is dead. You gotta find a way to make
that up. I don't think it's a pot.
Like, Pete. If you need to modify Parker at
the 17th round, not to say him again.
And he has this huge. We can't.
You like make up for that kind of I guess.
Like other teams. I don't know.
Maybe we'll be back over. Is the uniqueness element,
right? That's, that's what that's what
it is. Yeah.
But maybe in maybe this is another thing to, um, you know,
we talk about like, when it gets closer to the end up best Ball
Mania season. Like, starting to really try to
draft some late round picks that aren't drafted.
In like, you know, more than 10% of drafts.
I think we probably need to start pushing that.
Even in this contest here of like, you got your rotating
every time. Yeah.
And starting to look at, and we can use maybe some of those like
badge, bro, sheets to for looking at percentages, guys are
drafted, but it's like having a unique guy that man.
Collins are Davis way, you took Josh Reynolds, like the guy who
goes off that's on 5%, like that is going to be and that's how
people take down the battle royales, right?
It's that one-off piece, that isn't drafted in those six
rounds, that is the differential that was my thought with
Reynolds was like, Marvin Jones will get drafted 80% of the time
on golf teams, but Reynolds probably 20% of the time.
And I think that has way more value in this format.
Then it doesn't best Ball Mania. Because best Ball Mania, you
just need guys who are get your Who are not zeros right this, it
doesn't really matter. I think you have much more
freedom with your laid around picks in this because your
median expectation of return from those pics is so much
smaller. Right?
Because if they don't need to contribute that often.
Yeah, it's like I was just gonna say one other point about all
this too it also has to do with if you are going to get true
sweat entertainment Equity out of this to Davis's Point like
having your Act double stack in your Mahomes double stack.
You're going to get more Sweat, Equity out of it.
It's almost similar to like in DFS.
If you lock button a stack it's like my entire sweat is wrapped
up in the single stack and if it's done, right?
You have more outs to sweating. I just think you're probably
hurting your just, Uber percentile outcomes by doing it.
But again, the whole point of this too, is going to be fun to
sweat. It is going to be really fun to
pull up on a Monday or a Sunday evening be like, do I have a
team with a prayer to finish in the top ten here if you have 50
bullets that you have, you know, two stacks on each.
One of those, you have 300 different Stacks, you get to
build around each week to sweat. Like that's legitimately fun.
I think to going back to the DFS thing.
And again, these aren't always perfect comparisons but like one
thing, I think we should push back on that because it is not
it's not the same thing as playing, the spy on DraftKings
or even The Millionaire Maker undertakings because of the
replace ability there is but there is more.
I think it's more analogous to that to playing DFS than it is
to try to win best Ball Mania. Yes, I agree.
I agree, but I was big. Yeah, Fest point.
I was going to make and then I I was the one that said I was
going to keep this a tight 90 and then the ATP gravitation,
it's just, it's this, it's just the show.
You can't get out of here. I want to get their points.
And I was just gonna say like again with the exposure thing
and how you build a portfolio, like a lot of times, like Brian
says in his exposure shets. If he's running a 150 set and he
has like 15 percent Mahomes and like 2% deck and 2% off.
He'll just acts the golf ball to Merced them all because being
like, For this slate to go, I'd rather have more combinations
around the bigger stand. I'm making than to be Feathering
in like the second option. Well, what if that goes off
well, it's like well then the people who have way more DAC or
a built more intentionally around Dak.
I think are going to have better teams than you.
That would be my point. I think that's the illusion of
control, though. I think, I think that's the
human brain wanting to believe that it has some control over
the events like to actually take a lesson from David kitchen
here. Like you don't, you don't know
if Did you just read few bricks, 75s point with a, David kitchen
aphorism, a word that we replies?
I did I did no, but because it is, it is the way, the order of
operations, that our brain has, for these things.
Is that, is that moms is always going to outscore DAC, right?
That, that's where that's the priority of this conversation.
Is that every single week mom's is going to be projected for
more points than Dak. So taking DAC, feels useless
because we can't foresee an outcome or DAC has multiple
weeks of scoring more points. Points them homes, but we know
if we just look at the probability distribution, like
that will happen and has happened in real NFL games that
we've seen. I don't know, maybe, maybe I'm
questioning it now, but that, that's how I'm seeing it in,
that's how I'm saying. And also, the other thing is at
quarterback is you don't you don't need the nuts, right?
Even in even in 261,000, or whatever you don't need the nuts
at quarterback, the nuts at wide receiver.
It's more important which I guess is a point in your favor.
Yeah, I think the other thing to remember too is like, I don't
know. We I think Over focus on like
wasting pick one up wasting tax of quarterback and wasting tax a
tight end. When in reality, like there's
eight starting spots. So, once you're getting two
round nine, that means you're like quote-unquote betting
against one of your round 13, picks to not be in your starting
lineup, right? Like you're going to waste.
Once you've taken your fifth wide receiver, you're betting
that one of the wide receivers you took in the first four
rounds is knocking at your starting with.
So like, you always have like more pics than are actually
going to hit. Your starting lineup, I kind of
get why at quarterback. We should be extra careful about
that, but like let's not pretend that like we're not doing that
at every position once we're in the double digits, that's a
great saying. That's a great point.
I would not have thought of it that way.
Yeah, I I think my big like put it on a throw pillow like live a
little for this is just like the drafting like you're right.
Ethos is so even more pronounced in this one.
But and it again this is why I'm so excited because to Really
even dive into this more because we barely even scratched the
surface of what we got. We got like two minutes and we
got like two percent into this. This this tournament is sick
like part of me like wishes. We had a full summer of just
like talking and thinking about this contest because I do think,
I don't know, I could even see it.
Somehow surpassing best ball manias like, well, what anything
to discuss my idea. Was you make it, you you add an
even gnarlier wrinkle to it which is that you kind of do the
reverse of what they did with this whole Mania where most of
the prize money, Is in the weekly winners but you add a
million dollars or 500,000 to disperse and have it be a best
Ball Mania? You know, habit?
Yeah. Season long tournament as well.
We're layer that on top as well. Yeah, that because that is
almost The Perfect Blend of, you know, needing to pick the right
players. Get the commutator.
Like it just that that scene basically, amazing you took.
I agree it. So, instead of having the
regular season prizes as is where it's like 500,000 or
whatever you distribute that over the, what for 14 weeks,
even or whatever. Yeah, and that Weekly payouts
for that, but then all of that. So you would have people
optimizing for that. Yeah, I'll still gunning for the
better. Evie top, prize week, 17, that
would be, that would be the true melding of the game formats.
Yeah I love that idea or does the guy hires higher Stakes
lower entry version of this would also be sweet.
Like if you could do like a thousand that they will, they
will, they will do that. Yeah.
Mark, mark my words that's going to be Coming.
I don't know. But 100%.
That'll. I would think that has to be
coming. Yeah.
Anyways, Pizzeria wrap wrap this up.
Yeah, land that land the plane, you're the host, but I'm just
the one gently nudging you to Landon.
Okay, I forgot. It was those this one.
Yeah, let's see. I got nothing else going on this
week. I'll be back next week for free
to PJs and I think we have oh yeah I do want to note this next
week, Matt Harmon of reception perception and Yahoo is going to
be joining us on ATP. Chasing that Really cool never
talked to him. He's obviously does really
interesting wide receiver charting stuff that I think adds
an extra element to some of the wide receiver analysis.
So it'll be really cool to have him on the show and break down
some of the mid-range and late rain late, round wide receiver
targets. So wanted to note that big show
next week, Davis, what do you what do you have got going on
this week? I'm just getting back from
vacation so I don't know. I know I got a lot of work to do
this week but I haven't really started structuring What's
happening in my work week so you want to address it cam Akers.
Can't be this year's Josh Jacobs gate.
Yeah pitching go viral. I'll just always say the
opposite of whatever Dave just said they literally Dave could
be like Patrick Mahomes is the greatest quarterback of all time
and I'll be like, dude, he doesn't even have as many Super
Bowls just thought well yeah I just screamed my 75th Basketball
Mania draft over on my channel and easy from the deposit
Kingdom hopped on and Co piloted with his very cool.
Correlations spreadsheets, so check that out.
No shows tomorrow, no ship chasing on Wednesday, everybody
is out. So this is your Flagship chasing
show this week and then Wednesday because Millionaire
Maker crane is out. I'm having high low from one
week season, fill his spot and then Sean will be drafting with
me in the second slot on Okay, so those are those are my main
things. Beautiful, awesome!
Great! Oh, and we are, we are doing, we
are doing, we are doing a soil cast this week.
So be there for p therefore that on Wednesday, drafting, right
drafting. All Summer Long, baby all summer
long. All right I will do I'll do it
too because for to help Lex and make sure you guys are
following. Sam on Twitter is link is down
below. Sam's been doing an awesome job
on ATP. Chasing, appreciate all your
work. You know, we do a lot of shows
around here with like zero prep work and so just having one
person make some charts for a show.
Just feels like it's you know production through the roof.
So thank you, Sam. Appreciate that babe.
Yeah, it's been a lot of fun. And yeah, we'll be here for the
rest of the summer. It's only, it's only July 3rd,
we got another eight or nine. Atpg got Yo you've got roughly
six. I think it's 68 days left to get
all your team's drafted. I am.
I've started doing slow drafts because I am not going to get.
I'm not going to get all the way there.
So I've started doing slows. Its let us know and kids.
Let us know in the comments do because opinions are all over
the board on this week. Maybe something like, give us
like the top two things, you guys are prioritizing in this
contest in the comments as far as like the structure, the
divisional, stuff player, archetypes all that different
stuff. I'm curious where everyone Falls
because it does really seem like everyone's all over the map on
this. All right.
Yeah, I'm gonna power this down. Thank you for hanging out with
us on the third. Thank you to Sam to Davis to the
chat. Thank you to Underdog for giving
us a fun New contest to chew on. Hope you guys all have a
wonderful forth Of July, we will see you guys back next week on
this channel. Next show will be a teepee
chasing with Matt Harmon a week from today will see you guys
then.