Hello everybody and welcome to week 13.
That's a chasing joined tonight by peep 744 Draco.
And yeah, we have a interesting slate of games to discuss from
this past week had my quite step in for the Jets and really make
that offense look explosive. We had Sam Donald maybe breathe
some life into the value of DJ more and we also have the Sean
Watson's return looming in week, 13 and Cleveland.
So a lot of interesting situations discuss Pete.
Thanks for joining me tonight. Yeah, you know, you know, Draco,
big shoes to fill. I thought about trying to do an
Irish accent for the next, you know, six years so minutes.
But you know, I'm I'm getting weak in my old age and I don't
have that kind of bit commitment it me but excited to check out
the charts. Do some Battle Royale drafts and
love. What you and Rick we've been
doing with the show this year and happy to hop on.
Awesome. Yeah.
And as Pete mentioned, we're gonna do what Connor, and I
normally do it will go through all the stats from the past
week. Taco talk about key situations
and then we'll probably go through it.
A little bit quicker than normal and then do some Battle Royale
drafts, then Underdog. So for all of you joining that's
what what you can expect today. So yeah.
Without further Ado, why don't we jump into the data?
So So high. I love the.
Are you? First of all?
Are you, are you watching White Lotus?
Are you a fan? Yeah, I've been pretty addicted
to it. This, this new season.
I think I was listening to you and Davis or somebody discuss
White Lotus and one of your shows and I'm fully hooked.
I like the season even better than season one.
I'm the same way. It's really good.
We won't, we won't derail this too much but I do just want to
acknowledge the the nod to my quite which I appreciate their
also an incredible Survivor contestant as well.
Like white. Yeah.
And isn't the name of the director actually, my quite for
the White Lotus. I think it is.
No, yeah, that I assume. That's why you were doing it.
Yeah. Mike.
White was, he's the director. But he also appeared on Survivor
and was a very Savvy player so he has quite the resume.
Yeah, yeah, really accomplished name there.
But yeah, anyways, let's let's start with talking about my
quite so just for people falling along this chart were looking at
quarterback passing efficiency. See and rushing production, we
have touchdown rate on the y-axis here, you know,
percentage of throws where you get a touchdown and then
adjusted yards per attempt on the x axis, which is yards per
attempt, but adjusted for touchdowns and interceptions.
And yeah, it's obviously a one-week sample size.
But my quite is just an extreme outlier on this chart.
He's way far to the right with a 13 adjusted yards per attempt.
Now, the second Best quarterback in the league by that metric
would be to just under 10. So really an extreme outlier in
his one week sample thus far. But I think we do have a little
bit bigger of a sample of my quite to go off of it.
From last year where I think I think I heard a stat were two
out of his four starts this year.
He's been over like 20 for fantasy points per game and this
early in his career. So he flashed a little bit last
year yappy. Curious, what?
You think about my quite as a streamer and then maybe your
thoughts on how it affects the rest of the Jets?
Yeah, I think initially, you know, you just wonder how much
is it? How much of it is?
Zach Wilson, just being so bad. And then how much of it was my
quite, you know, performing well.
And then you also have to untangle how much of it was the
Bears secondary being really bad, but I think any way you
slice it. What my quite did was really
impressive and I also know last year and heading into this.
Everyone's like, oh, he's gonna check down a ton to Michael
Carter. I know Lord Reeves on Twitter at
pointed out. Well, the whole reason he
checked down to the running backs a ton is because he didn't
have any good wide receivers, it was Jamison Crowder pretty much
last year. Now you give him Garrett Wilson,
who looks like probably the most talented rookie wide receiver in
this class which is saying a lot and he looks really, really
good. So I'm personally having a hard
time untangling, like what we can take away from this from a
forecasting perspective. I mean how are you?
Feeling about him going into this matchup with the Vikings
who secondary just got lit up by Mac Jones as well.
Yeah, II think I'm tentatively pretty excited about my quite
like I'm not someone who does rankings, but I think with the
buys and all of that, I would be putting him sort of high-end
quarterback to range, and I'm in some leagues, more like sort of
on a tangent. I'm in some leagues where even
one quarterback, we're all of the good quarterback.
Sleepers are streamers are scooped up and I'm looking to
add my quite and some places. I think it's a good matchup.
And yeah, like you said good weapons.
Corey Davis is also back for the Jets.
You know, that adds another professional wide receiver, the
room Elijah Moore's, roll grew a little bit last week, so that
three wide receiver set with more Davis, and Wilson is pretty
strong. And with all the running back
injuries, I think they're going to be forced to throw the ball a
lot there in New York. So yeah, I'm not expecting him
to You know, be this extreme outlier as we see in the chart
here, but I do think he's a pretty solid streamer at least
for this this matchup against the Vikings.
Yeah, I think I'm about with you mid-range qb2.
I'm definitely starting guys like Trevor Lawrence and Jared
Goff and that kind of game environment ahead of him.
I guess it starts to get interesting, like Jimmy
Garoppolo verse Miami, Jordan love if we get a star Timber
Chicago, he's probably like right in that range.
Yeah, I think he's right. He's right in that.
And I think I'd be. Yeah, I think that's about,
right? I think You laid it out well
where I'm probably going Golf and Lawrence over him.
But I think I would go white over Jimmy.
But yeah, that that one gets pretty close.
Well, not to mention to, I mean, if we have Michael Carter, who's
they say? He's kind of day-to-day with
this low ankle sprain. I mean, James Robinson scratch
last week. They don't have much of a
running game and even if Ty Johnson's the lead back, I mean
he's way more of a pass-catching back.
Like they could just let him do the Joe Flacco thing where he
slings it like 50 times in A game like this, especially after
he performed so well last week, like I don't know if you're
Robert solow. Why wouldn't you give him the
keys to air it out in this matchup?
Yeah, yeah. But I think there's some upside
there where we know the Vikings. If their offense is clicking,
they can put up a lot of points. So there's some upside for the
game script there, for sure, for my quite so.
Yeah, I think overall like and we can get to this, we talk to
other positions. I think the mic white stuff is
like, I'm more excited for Garrett Wilson and even for, you
know, stashing guys like Davis and Elijah more than And for my
quite himself, I just think he really raised the ceiling for
those wide receivers and even the running backs, I think from
a past histories perspective for the rest of the way for sure.
Um, yeah, so another thing I wanted to hit on, we had another
sort of new quarterback in week 12, with Sam, Donald taking over
for Baker, Mayfield and p.j. Walker in Carolina and yeah.
Again you can see on this chart he had a good week they weren't
forced to throw a ton and Carolina because of that
disgusting, Denver Broncos offense.
They were kind of able to get away with just running the ball
a ton. But even so on a limited sample,
Donald was much better than baker has been this year.
He's better than PJ Walker, has been from an efficiency
perspective and we saw DJ more pop up for a big game.
So I guess I'm curious like it's tough to take you.
Again for a one-game sample. But are you adjusting your
priors on? I think DJ more spry.
The only relevant guy here in Carolina.
Are you more excited about DJ more?
Or are you just seeing this as sort of a blip and, you know,
we're not. We shouldn't be that much more
excited about the Carolina pass, catchers, probably somewhere in
between, I don't think the word excited is what you could use
with the Carolina offense and yet it's still just gives DJ
more like slightly more life. I mean Sam Donald the DJ more
splits with him at court. Back, 15.7 DraftKings points per
game. Adam Levitin had this tweet on
Twitter and then, you know, his production, with Baker, Mayfield
or PJ, Walker and 11 games, 10.6 DraftKings points per game.
So we have a decent sample size, here of Baker, Mayfield or
sorry. Sam Donald looking DJ Moore's
way. So, the way I always think about
these situations is like, it raises DJ Moore's, floor.
I think which is nice. I don't think the ceiling case
is really that different. If anything, I think you could
argue that PJ Walker. Gave him a bit more of a ceiling
just Cuz he would uncork some of those deep throws but yeah it
raises his his throne if you're still alive in week 13 like
you're barely excited about starting DJ more.
I know in some of our teams like we were always debating George
Pickens verse DJ. More of those kind of starts its
maybe you have a Garrett Wilson or a trail and Burkes like I
still want to start those guys / DJ more right now.
Yeah, I think I'm with you there.
I think it's a slight bump for more.
I mean, I think. Yeah.
Like you said, I think Walker and I think I think the big
thing is just having Baker out of the picture.
I think there's a big enough sample showing that Baker was
just devastating to Moore's value and I'm just happy I guess
that Arnold played well enough and they got the wind that.
I don't think there's a way that they're going back to be anchor
in the future. So yeah, that's that's a
positive there. Yeah.
Another thing I wanted to hit on and again, we can talk about the
pass catchers here, a bit, the big news and then I felt this
week is DeShaun Watson coming back and week 13 and you can see
Jacoby per set here, kind of, you know, a middling quarterback
performer thus far this year. I think he's been better than
expected. He sort of kept the Cleveland
offense afloat, you know, and Joe coup and Amari Cooper and
even Donovan people just Jones of maybe slightly exceeded
Asians there in Cleveland relative to their pre-season
ATP. But I think a lot of people are
now going to expect a big boost in the pass catchers values
there in Cleveland. You have any, you know, gut gut
instinct on on that. Do you see a massive upgrade for
the Cleveland pass catchers with with DeShaun Watson coming back.
Yeah, I don't. I mean Amari Cooper has been
really solid with Brissette. I think the thing that I wonder
if it changes is dpj being used a little bit more as a deep
threat, you know, he kind of changed how we thought about him
with Jacoby where he was like a 12 point per game guy just like
locked in and he wasn't getting kind of those big plays and so
you can tell yourself a story as does he get used more as the
will Fuller with the Sean Watson here.
I think we definitely see more of a deep ball game.
I'm I'm having a hard time, you know, forecasting, what we can
expect from him this week, obviously, a ton of rust and
then you have like the juiciest rushing matchup of all time.
And on top of that the Cleveland Browns identity is still the Run
game. And so to me this is like is
this just going to be a game where they just pound it with
Nick Chubb and cream hunt and maybe like this John Watson
uncork a few play-action deep throws like I just I don't know
how much we can expect from him in this match of even though it
does set up really well on paper.
Yeah, yeah, that that's a good point.
And yeah, I think my thought is, and I don't know, like, maybe
this is a dumb take, but I think that Brissette really hasn't
been that bad for the past customers like, or know how much
more we can expect out of David and Joko, you know, he's been a
top five fantasy tight end points per game when he's been
healthy. Amari Cooper has been in the top
ten and I think it's been really concentrated towards to those
two guys. Guys and I just wonder if, you
know, wants and coming back, maybe things get more spread out
like you said, maybe dpj gets gets more involved.
Yeah, we'll see. Obviously Watson's like at a
stealing is much more talented than Brissette, but sometimes
when these guys come back from these extended absences, it's
really hard to predict, you know, how their conditioning has
been where their head is. That obviously Watson's, you
know, had all that off the field craziness.
So, you know, I just think there's there's more For are
there. And certainly the upside is
better for those guys. But, you know, if you have
Cooper or in joking right now, it's not like you necessarily
like want to change for those guys, those guys are already
producing at a high level. So, yeah, I'm with you, too.
I mean, like it. It's also like he just returned
to practice. I mean, this is a super long
layoff here. So, yeah, I would expect some
Rust, I would expect them easy him in.
I'm still super excited about him from like a stash
standpoint. I know there's a lot of teams
that were hunting for quarterback.
I mean, like there wasn't a better upside proposition at
quarterback on the waiver wire than DeShaun Watson.
And yet I think you still have to temper expectations over the
next couple of weeks. Yeah, agreed there.
Yeah. A couple quick hits and then we
can move on. Yeah, the Kyle Allen and Bryce
Perkins, early returns of those experiments are pretty dire.
Yeah, I don't know if you can start any any text.
It's our array, especially Rams, Ramsbottom Or that looks like a
disaster so far. And again, Kenny Pickett's.
Still is lying pretty far behind on this chart, I guess more of
like a dynasty take. But I'm starting to get a little
bit worried about his long-term success in that I fell.
I don't think he's played to a point where the Steelers
couldn't replace him in the next year or two, if, if a
quarterback falls in the draft of them.
So just maybe a take therefore, people look ticket and Dynasty.
I'm starting to get a little a little bit.
Concerned there. Yeah, I'm so torn about picking,
I feel like I've been a bit of a Kenny Pickett apologists and
made a decent amount of excuses for him with the schedule and
stuff last night. I mean, he missed just George
Pickens wide open in The End Zone.
On one of those throws that I think that would have helped his
day on the other hand, if I'm going to continue making
excuses, like they had a positive game script the whole
time and we're having so much success on the ground, like it
didn't even matter when Ozzy, left any Snell was running.
Well, so he hasn't Lee he hasn't had like the ideal setup to
crush and yet he just hasn't fully taken advantage of his
opportunities either. Yeah I think if you're going to
go with the positive on picket you see is rushing yards per
game pops a little bit in this chart.
I think people knew that about him as a prospect but that part
of his game has translated to the NFL level.
Let me pick it up right here. He's at 25 rushing yards.
Per game, which isn't Elite. But it's in the same tier of
guys, like Patrick Mahomes Geno Smith, Trevor like better than
Trevor Lawrence better than Joe barroso from a doctor's
perspective, you can be excited about that but yeah the passing
is really what's held him back thus far.
So yeah we'll see. We'll see how thick and I'm not
completely writing him off but you know we'd like to see a few
good performances down the stretch.
I think to feel better about him.
And I see going forward, do you have any takes on, you know, the
other one. I haven't seen an updated injury
report on on Aaron Rodgers, but do you have any thoughts on
Jordan? Love if he is the quarterback
this week, Yeah, I saw I haven't dug a ton into like the the
matchups for this upcoming week yet.
What I will say, just just for watching the game, I think
Jordan love. Now I'm blanking on his last
action was, but I think Jordan love and it like his game last
week and whatever is most recent game action, maybe it was last
year. Anyways, the point I'm trying to
make is I think his play on the field has trended up in the
limited sample that we've seen him.
I Think when we saw him really early in his career, it was like
kind of laughably bad and he was getting completely ripped on out
there. He looks a lot more confident.
We saw him connect with Christian Watson on that, on
that deep ball where he looked pretty good.
And he also adds a bit of rushing upside, so they're
putting the Bears this week is that, is that, yeah, yeah,
they're at the Bears. I mean, he was like, when he
filled in so his line, he was 64 913 yd, TD 146 points, A passer
rating, obviously, small sample size, but considering that the
other times we've seen him Steph to, and he looked really bad.
It's nice to see that. It looks like there's some
improvement. Like you said, he definitely
seems more comfortable and has some pretty nice weapons here
too. He seemed to have a good
connection with Christian Watson.
Yeah and back to the my quite thing.
You know. Mike Woods.
Blow up game was against that Chicago defense.
We've seen Chicago give up a lot of big games, two opposing,
quarterbacks and pass catchers. So certainly the matchup you
want to Target. As a streamer I think I would
put him if we're, you know, probably the decision you have,
you're looking for a quarterback streamers him verse my quite I
think that he has, I think he's a better play just because of
the potential rushing production, he can give you.
I think that sort of heightens is for stealing a combo just a
little bit, but I think it's close.
I think I would be pretty happy with either guy as a streamer
this week. Yeah, both bull Chicago in
Minnesota. Have been really favorable
quarterback matchup. So yeah, I think you can pick
your your favorite of the two there.
Yeah. Cool.
So moving on to the running back position here, we're looking at
workload, in terms of running, back, expected, fantasy points
and efficiency. And, you know, compared to the
Past chart. We're now just filtering two
weeks nine through twelve, obviously, running back is a
position where injuries and coaching decisions change things
dramatically. So we want to look at the most
recent data. So the last sort of 45 games for
some of these players this chart here shows Receiving expected
fantasy points per game on the y-axis, and rushing expected,
fantasy points per game on the x-axis and combine that
together, you get a sense of running backs.
Total workload in terms of expected fantasy points per
game. Also shown on the chart is
fantasy points over expected. So, the larger bubbles, you can
see here like Joe Mixon. That means he's out performing
his expected pensive, went workload.
First, the the smaller bubbles means of Layer.
That's been a little bit. Inefficient from an expected
fantasy points perspective, but yeah, I think I would anchor
more on just the, the workload and less on the efficiency and
such a small sample, but yeah. Anyways, Pete, I think a couple
interesting things to talk through here.
Number one, I just wanted to talk a little bit about Austin
Eckler, his receiving fantasy points.
Workload, is truly in a Here of his own, he's at 17 expected.
Receiving fantasy points per game.
This is BFF. The next closest running back is
Ramon Dre, at around 12, and then it drops off.
Again, they're the next closest would be Christian McCaffrey at
around 10:00. So he's kind of doubling up.
Almost the guys right behind him in receiving fantasy points,
workload, and he is kind of close to two breaking.
Yeah, breaking fantasy from that.
Perspective. So, I don't know, I just want to
highlight that point. I had seen some other things
this week about how sort of the specialist receiving fantasy
back is kind of almost dead like the, you know, JD mckissick
James White. Yeah.
Years passed like those guys don't really exist anymore.
But Austin Eckler is just truly, you know, an outlier from that
perspective. Yeah.
What were you because one of the narratives heading into last
week was that Keenan Allen being back was going to eat.
Eat into his receiving production.
That clearly didn't happen this week.
Do you think if they get Mike Williams and everyone back that
he doesn't catch as many passes, or do you think he's just kind
of locked into this role and he's such an entrenched part of
their passing game, that it doesn't even matter when they're
fully healthy on offense. Yeah, I think I'm somewhere in
the middle. I think it.
If, if all those guys were at full health, I don't think would
see 17 expected fantasy points per game or whatever.
It's been during the, the stretch for those guys have been
injured or playing at less than 100%, but I still think his role
is very locked in, you know, this hasn't just been a small
blip. We've seen much earlier in the
season him putting up 1210 Target games.
And I think that, you know, this from a more realistic
perspective, I don't expect Keenan Allen or Mike Williams to
be playing at 100%, you know, we're in week 12.
Now, those guys have been pretty banged up.
They're not necessarily known for, you know, staying healthy.
So I just kind of bet against those guys being at full at full
strength and I think the other thing to call out is the
secondary or tertiary pass catchers in this offense
joshjpalmer, Deandre Carter even even Gerald Everett haven't
really ever shown an ability to earn targets at a high rate.
So even if both Keenan and Mike Williams are back, I still think
there's there's room for Eckler to have a pretty big Target.
Share in this offense. Yeah, I agree.
What do you, what's your read on?
Kind of what we're seeing from Josh Jacobs, obviously explodes
for a massive game 303 total scrimmage yards, the walk-off
touchdown here. He is back on the injury report
with this calf, strain. It sounds like they're going to
really limit him in practice this week but what did you what
was your big takeaway from the monster Josh Jacobs game?
Yeah. Maddy's is kind of doing it all
year. At least from the workload
perspective and he's had a couple other big blowup games.
I think my Takeaway on on the Jacobs thing overall this year
is that, you know, I think there's a lot of talk about, you
know, the running back Dead Zone and why we should avoid running
backs in in that range. But I think there got to be a
point. We're Jacobs felt like the
seventh. Eighth even ninth round and some
drafts where the dead zone like stink got associated with them
even though he had sort of fallen out of that range.
As it's traditionally defined and at that point, our biases
should have sort of been able to come off him and and I don't
know, maybe. I'm just trying to find a reason
for wide and draft more of him but yeah, I don't know.
His role is really strong. I don't from like the Every
perspective. I don't think the calf injury
seems like something that's going to limit him if he was
able to play through it this week.
But yeah, it's just it's been pretty consistent all season
this this workload for him and I don't expect it to go away
barring some kind of injury. Yeah, I mean, yeah.
I think he obviously definitely smash this week against the
Chargers, if he's active, I would say if, for some reason
zamir, white is available in your league though.
I would Finally pick him up because I do think just based on
how they've used Josh Jacobs, I think, sure, I think Abdullah
would get a little bit more work if Jacobs Miss, but I do think
zamir. White would probably get 75 to
80% of what Jacobs has been getting.
And so that's worth a stash just to see how his, you know,
practice reports materialize. But yeah.
In the macro conversation for Josh Jacobs to, I think, you
know, there was The Dead Zone stuff, but like, I don't even
think that was it because, like you said, he was falling Out Of
The Dead Zone. He was like in that mile Sanders
range there for a while. I think it was all of the stuff
about the team drafting zamir white, the not picking up his
fifth year, option, the Hall of Fame game usage, there was just
like a cascading series of events.
I was like, holy cow, this guy's on the outs.
Josh, McDaniels doesn't want to touch this guy and so I think we
all collectively fell into that. But on the other side to like I
mentioned Mi Sanders, like I had a bet with someone about you
know, Kenneth gate. Well outscoring Mi Sanders luck,
Lee. I was on the Mi Sanders one for
that one, but it collectively we tend to get excited about the
younger guy. The sexier guy.
Yeah, Josh Jacobs just was the epitome of the unsexy player
that became way, way too cheap and drafts.
Yeah, it's almost been kind of two years in a row.
Or this is happened to right? Like you could sort of say the
same thing about Leonard, fournette and Melvin Gordon, for
2021, where they were sort of the unsexy guys, who had a track
record of being first round fantasy picks had Appointed
we're older, you know, not exactly the same situations and
they obviously didn't smash as big as Jacobs has this year.
But yeah, I think it's, I don't know something.
I guess. I'll try to think of through
next year is, you know, once that guy kind of gets the, The
Dead Zone washed like stink on him even when that player Falls
to a part of the draft where he's a pretty good pick you know
relative to his cause she's not even in the dead zone anymore.
Like I'm going to try to To shake off my vices a little bit
more. I think it's just easy to sort
of get those negative biases on players and then not update when
they're when they're cost updates down or, you know, we're
so I'm gonna try to think through that more more next year
but Jacobs. Obviously, I think that's been
the biggest League winner, if anyone fancy this far, I don't
know how you can argue for someone else at this point
unless I'm missing something. Yeah, I mean cost adjusted.
I mean we should talk about Ramon Ray Stevenson.
He was going, you know, ironically around the same said,
plays a drafts as Josh Jacobs was at one point.
I think you can make a case for Kenneth Walker.
Isabelle based on but no I agree.
I mean, Kenneth Walker's, not putting up 50 Burgers right now
with his role. But let's talk about Ramon Dre.
We now have Damien. Harris, who is week-to-week?
It sounds like it seems like he could miss at least multiple
weeks. I mean, Nothing is Stopping
Ramon. Ray Stevenson, I was stash.
A strong at a few spots. He had a horrible horrible
penalty, he's fully and Bill Belichick's doghouse.
Now I mean I can't make any cases against her Madre going
forward right now. Yeah I can't either.
I don't think there's any backup running back.
They trust I think Jay Jay Taylor was released maybe back
on the broccoli clip. Yeah roll the clip he had that
game where he had like ten carries 4 - 2 yards or whatever
it was a couple weeks ago. So yeah it's going to be fully
remond re-season another injury to note.
There is Jacoby Myers left that game pretty early.
On Thanksgiving and seems questionable to play this week
as well. So I think that could funnel
even more looks in the passing game to Ramon Dre because
there's not a whole lot other pass catchers in this offense
that draw a lot of targets. So yeah, out of a hard time, you
know, ranking or Madre outside of you know top six or so.
Running backs for the week is his role is as likely to be
massive. But yeah, let's see.
Any other. There's a couple other injuries
situations that we should probably hit on quickly.
I guess, first in New York. So Michael Carter for the Jets.
Michael Carter, went down with an injury and seems day-to-day,
I think the team quoted as a. So I think he's, you know, early
in the week, but I think he is truly questionable to play this
next week. We seize oven white or Donovan
night pop up here for around ten expected points.
He played pretty clearly ahead of Todd Johnson particularly on
on early Downs, in New York and with James Robinson, healthy
scratched, I would expect him to be the feature running back in
New York. So yeah, any thought speed on
the New York Jets running back situation.
Do you think zolomon night is sort of the best waiver wire
Target for this week? Running back.
Yeah, it all admit fully heading into this week.
I beans on oven night was one of those guys are legit had never
even heard of and then he forces, nine missed tackles in
this game here, and looked really good.
And in general to, I think we tend to myself included dismiss
these guys who we don't have any priors on.
Whereas I do think a guy who comes in performs, well, on a
season where the waiver wire is incredibly Baron at running
back. Like, obviously, this guy, I
should be added and taking stabs on him and just hoping hey maybe
there's positive you know momentum here maybe Robinson
continues not to play Michael Carter's out longer than we
think. I mean yeah anyone who has a
pulse in an offense that's turning around I think is
relevant and I was pretty impressed by what zone of and I
did on Sunday. Yeah he's also absolutely
popping in the the cool name model he has not just one cool
name but to cool names on ovens his real name and then his name
is also Bam's. Yeah, that's another data point
that we should be really excited about for the rest of the
season. But yeah, I agree with you.
Also Michael Carter was not, you know, I think he had really
impressive rookie season. He has not been that impressive
this year to the point where if it was on oven plays.
Well this next week with Carter out I'm not sure how locked in
Carter is for the starter role. I do think it would be a
committee once Carter comes back.
But I think this is a situation where the the backup has a
chance to to take the roll. You know, compared to like
appear on versus Nixon situation where we know peer and there's
no way he's taking the full time role for mixing, no matter how.
Well he plays. I think, in this case, we can't
be super confident that that Carter retains that starting
role even when he comes back. Yeah, it is also, I was just
made me think back to just what a wild ride.
This James Robinson season has been where early odd, you know,
people who drafted James Robinson, we're doing Victory
laughs. They're like, we drafted the
Jags rb1 and the 16th. A and you guys were all scared
for the injury then they trade of the think you get another new
lease on life. And now we're at the point where
he's a healthy scratch like this James Robinson.
Run out has been super bizarre. Super weird.
I mean admittedly I didn't have any of them but I was like
panicking after the first couple weeks of people to.
Yeah it's like why didn't I draft any James Robinson?
Why do I have all this Travis etn in the third round laughter?
Yeah, that's funny. Let's quickly.
Take a look at the the NFC here. So again for people following
wrong a following along same chart here, but now looking at
the NFC a couple just like weird things that popped out to me on
this chart. Jamaal Williams has like one of
the weirdest roles that I've ever seen the NFL, like, his
expecting expected. Rushing workload, here is the
biggest and then FC at over 50. 18 points and now a lot of that
is like goal line carries. He gets a shits on the goal line
carries obviously leading the league in rushing touchdowns.
You guys probably know that but he has almost no receiving role
at all like it it almost like doesn't show up on the chart
because yes like a little rolls though, I don't know this.
Jamal Williams stuff is like I don't know.
This is like a drone bet. It like I'm trying to think of a
comparison of like what this role is historically.
Like it's been a while since I've seen anything.
Quite like this Jamaal Williams role in Detroit, it's kind of
bizarre. I know it's like it's one of the
classic things where you just want to scream regression and
then it just keeps happening week after week.
And like the biggest issue for both him and DeAndre Swift, is
the fact that Justin Jackson is involved.
And you know, once you get into that territory, where there's
three running backs, getting touches, you just worry about
the consistency of any of those guys.
And yet, Jamaal Williams fucking falls into the end zone every
single week. So have I.
Yeah, I mean, if you have Jamal Williams, you're not sitting him
at this point. Now they get a juicy matchup in
a game. I'm with a total over 50 points
against the Jags and it's like, well but can fire up Jamaal
Williams again. Yep.
Yeah, what do you mean? What are you gonna do?
You're not gonna, you're not gonna sit the guy who could go
off for two or three touchdowns at any week?
It seems and yeah, I don't know, I would say.
Yeah. It like you said, I keep
thinking some of these one yard Jamaal Williams touchdowns have
to be Jared Goff passing touchdowns at some point, but it
doesn't seem like it's gonna happen this season.
Yeah, I think. I don't know anything else here
on this on this chart that that jumps out to you.
Otherwise we can look at the we have more running back charts on
Snap counts, we can take a look at.
We should talk about we should talk about Christian McCaffrey
because there's definitely been lots of hand-wringing about his
role since Eli Mitchell came back.
Now we have Eli Mitchell out six to eight weeks.
Christian McCaffrey dealing with a little knee issue himself but
assuming Christian McCaffrey is good to go.
Do you think tea DP and or Jordan Mason is his big of a
thorn in his side as Eli Mitchell was or do you think we
get some of that first week second week Christian McCaffrey
in this offense? Or was like holy cow full blast
off mode with his workload. Yeah that's a good question I
think is, you know, if you was fully healthy I would be really
excited. The fact that he is dealing with
this knee soreness. I've heard it reported as maybe
like a patellar tendon soreness issue.
I think that they're going to limit him and not go full like
Carolina version of Christian. McCaffrey that said I still
think his role is is really valuable when he's on the field.
You know he's running all the routes, he's on the field.
He's Learning a ton of targets, I think that he's gonna get a
full grip. On the Red Zone usage Mitchell
was actually stealing a good bit of that.
I don't see them going to Jordan Mason or TDP there in the Red
Zone. I think that really view
Mitchell as like a tier above those other running backs and
that's why are they giving him a lot of high-value touches in
this offense. So yeah, maybe a bit of a
lukewarm take, I think that either TDP or Mason or even
Tevin Coleman Whoever earns that second role is going to mix in
on early downs and McCaffrey's like snaps and Carries share,
maybe won't look as good as we're expecting or verse but it
wasn't Carolina, but I think you'll have a pretty firm grip
on all the targets, all the routes and all the red zone
usage. So I'm doing this.
This Mitchell injury is still like a pretty sizeable bump for
McCaffrey. Yeah, I agree with that.
Take one other one that I feel like is tricky and I'm curious
your thoughts on it. It is what we're seeing in
Washington with Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson, where it
almost seems like they're ping-ponging big games.
But I don't even think you can just Square it away with.
Oh, it's like game script dependent.
I don't, I don't have a good read on.
What's going on with their usage.
Does anything in the charts? Point you to two something with
this backfield? Yeah, that's a good question and
maybe we can. So here we have the expected
points. We have Gibson here in sort of
the 10 to 15 x, by 2 points. Range Robinson also in a very
similar range. The difference in the roles is
that Robinson is sort of primarily just an early down
grinder and Gibson is seeing more of the receiving work.
That said, he's not getting a ton of receiving usages and sort
of the five expected fantasy points per game.
From a receiving perspective, I think that's because like Taylor
heinicke compared to whence or other quarterbacks hasn't
involved. The running backs in the passing
game, as much we've seen like mckissick completely phased out
and maybe there's something there where they don't do the
running backs as a big part of this passing game now.
But yeah, but like you said, I think my overall take is, I'd
rather have Gibson. The snaps still look pretty good
for Gibson. I was out snapped by Robinson
this week, but it was pretty close, 30 snaps Robinson, 26 for
Gibson that said, Gibson doubled, him out in routes, run
with 6:46, and that's been pretty consistent where we've
seen pretty even snap shares with between the two.
But with Gibson, getting more routes and more Target.
So just with that profile. Odd preferred bet on Gibson.
He's also shown the ability to break off a long, long plays.
And in the past, A game. So I like his upside a little
bit there, but yeah, if you have Robinson, I think, you know, I
was pretty concerned about Robinson from a talent
perspective, he had had a pretty long stretch of like very
inefficient games and we see him pop up here for over 100 yards
and broke off some from next semester on.
So, you know, I think there was there was going to be a little
bit up on him as well, but I'd still at still rather have
Gibson. Yeah.
I think I'm in the same boat although Once I saw Brian
Robinson and that big hat, man. It is tough.
Not to like this guy. I'll tell you that much.
Yeah, saw this tweet that they're like.
The only thing this photo tells us, is that Brian Robinson, is a
really good friend. Like, whoever it spent is that
is starting this this hat business, like you have to be a
good friend to wear that thing in public.
Cool. What we spend a lot of time on
on running back. I do want to show these charts
which looks at running back usage from a slightly different
angle here. We're looking at snaps and usage
in terms of Russia temps and routes.
So the way to kind of read this chart is the green is sort of
the valuable usage from a running back perspective, that's
the percentage of snaps. Whether even either in the ball
it to them or they're running a route and have a chance to earn
a Target. So you see on the far left side
here, we have the workhorses like Jonathan Taylor, Josh
Jacobs. And the far right-hand side of
this chart, we have sort of the more time shared running backs
and you know, AJ Dillon, Karen Williams, Jerick McKinnon,
Jerick McKinnon, those type of guys, so it's sort of a way to
look at, you know, talk about Workhorse usage, from a snaps
perspective and maybe the one situation, you don't want to
talk about here. Is is Pittsburgh I think that
injury situation has gone a little bit under the radar this
week na zhi. I think left the game in the
third quarter with an abdominal injury and was kind of in and
out before that looked like you were struggling with injury a
little bit. He leaves behind a pretty big
snap. Share in Pittsburgh where he did
Miss time around about sort of 6570 percent snaps for nausea.
So definitely room for a back up here to take on a big role.
Do you have any leads? I mean, you know, between Jalen
Warren who was also injured Benny Snell, and Anthony
McFarland about who you would kind of want to add, you know,
next week and going forward. Yeah, I mean, and I do think the
nausea thing is legit in that everything I'm saying is that a
lot of times the typical time Miss for an abdomen injury is
multiple weeks. So if he gets shelved, I still
think I would want Jalen worn above all those guys.
If he's obviously, SLI healthy. It seems like the team had fully
committed to him as the backup running back.
He was really efficient with his touches early in the season.
Benny Snell has always been kind of a last resort option for the
Steelers over his tenure and that's what he was.
Last night is well and then Anthony McFarland kind of mixing
in and getting some of those passing opportunities to.
So I think I still prefer Warren but Benny still should probably
be added if Warren isn't ready. Just because I mean You could
probably if you have both nausea and Jalen worn out.
I mean, Benny cells probably getting 15 touches this week, so
I think both should be picked up, but Warren's really the guy
that has some exciting upside if he gets a start.
Yeah, I agree with that, I'd say like, if you're desperate for a
spot start this week, I would rather have Snell because I
think it's likely warm miss another week.
But if you're looking for a guy to stash for the playoffs,
Warren is obviously the guy you want.
Yes, is a good point here. When from historical anomalies
Tomlin said, warrants hamstring was not serious for really about
last week. So yeah, maybe it's less less
bad of injury than than we think but I don't know.
Hamstrings are always a tricky one and I'm probably betting
Warren mrs. This week.
But yeah, we're want to check the practice reports on that
one. That one's kind of tricky.
Yeah, I mean you are the reason why this is very relevant is
because they're playing the Falcons who suggested giving up
points. Both To the ground and through
the air. So I think we definitely want to
keep tabs on this, you know, Snell's more gonna be like, plug
your nose, try to get your eight points and get out of there.
Whereas like Warren could actually do something exciting
with his touches. Yeah, yeah, could be, yeah.
Like if it's Benny Snell chalk week in DFS, I'm probably about
a way of that one. Yeah, yeah.
But for my RV to in a managed League, I could be really
excited about it. Benny Snell, sponsoring some.
So I'm like so, Yep. I think the other another thing
that jumps out to me here Pete, I want to touch on quickly is
kind of Walker's role is really strong and maybe this is more of
like a dynasty take, you know, there's not much action, a
little actionable things you can do with Kenneth Walker at this
point. Like no one really probably
wants to trade him. If you have them, you're not
going to trade him away. But I think there's this
perspective still maybe a bit from his Prospect profile that
you know he can't do much in the past catching game, you know,
he's losing a ton of work to deejay Dallas.
Travis Homer. I always see that talked about
but when you put it in perspective compared to all
other running backs in the league, he is running a lot of
routes and like his role here is top five in terms of Rush
attempts and routes. We have you know we haven't seen
him explode in the passing game or anything like that.
But I think the fact the team trust him in that part of the
game, you know, he might not ever be like a Christian
McCaffrey, you know, even sequani Berkeley level receiver.
But I think he has proven, he can at least be maybe like a Joe
Mixon, Dalvin, cook level receiver in the league and that
I think adds a ton to his dynasty value.
So I'd be really excited about this usage for him.
If I have have Ken Walker in Donna, Sue leagues.
I think that's the perfect comp to of like thinking about, you
know, what his role is. And he's never going to get to
Austin Eckler CMC levels. But that down because you can
even Josh Jacobs, I think is probably a pretty good.
A comp for him as well. And I do think it's notable to
mention that shift because I know initially when he had his
breakout post Rashad Penny, they were still using deejay Dallas
and Travis Homer, a decent amount and I even know some
people were putting him on sell High lists because they were
worried about him and say - game scripts, if he wasn't catching
passes and I think we are past that now and you just, you have
so many outs with Kenneth Walker, right?
Like that offense has a lot of Red Zone trips.
He Explosive now he's catching some passes to.
It's like, there's really no reason to ever sit or be worried
about Kenneth Walker with this role.
Yeah. And just a little routes thing
for this week, he had 27 routes run to just 9 for Homer, just
64, deejay Dallas. Now, if you just look at the box
score, you'd see that Homer and Dallas each got two Targets and
Walker just had one. So I think that's a little bit,
what people are doing, they're doing some box score watching
seeing, ah, he's not getting targets Homer and Dallas still
are and I and I get why people think Like that but he's kind of
laughing them and routes like doubling.
Both of them up collectively. So I'm not so worried about
that. That small sample like Target
discrepancy. I'm more excited about the fact
that he's just out there. Running a ton of routes for
running back for sure. I think this is a good macro
question from Lulu. Mentioning should we be getting
all of our handcuffs at least qbr be in leagues that stop
waivers, of course, you know ffp C waivers walking here.
Soon, Lou using the example like if Jacobs is a mere white better
than Hasty Warren. I'm cured.
I'll let you go first Sam. How do you think about this idea
of who you would prefer assuming?
All of these guys were available?
Are you handcuffing your guy or you trying to Bink to starting
running backs? Potentially, if an injury
occurs? Yeah, that's a good question.
I think I'm going to cop out a little bit and say like if
you're in tournament formats I would go for the higher upside
Atta G of trying to bank. The second handcuffed like not
your own handcuffed, but some other running backs handcuffed
because you're really trying to maximize your total points.
And if you're sort of betting that you're starting running
back gets injured. You might not be able to do that
anyways, but if you're in sort of a traditional managed League
I think it's totally. Okay.
At this point just you know say you have really stacked team and
you have Dalvin, cook go, grab Alexander Madison, you have Josh
Jacobs, go grab some more white because in those leagues.
Don't need the absolute nut ceiling.
You probably just need like some decent scores throughout the
playoffs to win. So I think I think that's how I
would think about it. And then I'd also just consider
like, not all handcuffs are are treated equal.
I think there's some guys where we can have a lot more
confidence in them having a big role or maybe their team
situation is just really strong. So you know, for Alexander
Madison for instance we can feel really confident.
He's going to be huge role of cook.
Goes out that offense is Is firing at this point this
season, so I'd much rather have him then, you know, Benny Snell
because we're not even sure if he's going to be the guy.
The Pittsburgh offense is terrible.
So I consider those Team level factors as well as how confident
we are in the Handcuff. Is he actually going to get that
role if the starter goes out? Yeah, I think that's a really
good point. Like you said, you know, Lou
mentioning, you know jamychal Hasty.
I'm pretty excited about jamychal Hasty as a handcuffed
because he's shown one, they use them in the passing game into
It's very explosive with his touches.
He's had multiple I want to say touchdowns over 40 plus yards
whereas like Benny Snell. He's going to be more the
grinder. They're mixing and Anthony
McFarland. So like knowing what you're
getting, you know, just the names that Lou mentioned I think
I put Samir white first just because I think they would give
him pretty close to the full Josh Jacobs role then jamychal
Hasty after that and then Benny Snell.
So I think in general I just want to power rank like who is
the guy who could have a path to a true Bell cow roller at East
80, 90 percent of that. And then go from there.
I'm like you, I always want to prioritize trying to get a
second, you know, starting running back on my roster as far
as as opposed to kind of protecting my existing
investment. I will say again, as now I'm not
talking in circles here, like with the Josh Jacobs
uncertainty, with his health like zamir, white is just upset
objectively, a good pick up regardless of, whether you have
him or not. So ideally, I'd be trying to get
both of those. Those guys on but I don't think
I don't think it's bad to go hard after zamir white just
because you have Josh Jacobs. No, I don't think it's bad
either and you know, oftentimes in these really deeply because
like There's not a ton of options out there and I am not
like so anti handcuffing. To the point that I wouldn't
make a bid for some, your wife, just because I've Jacobs.
Like I think there's definitely some universes where Jacob Smith
is a week. You have both and like you can
still Place really well in the main event or whatever.
It's certainly not impossible. Yeah.
Met Matt socks referencing, Darrell Henderson.
I guess I should say. I'm not that worried about
Darrell had her sit as someone who started drill Henderson.
Across the board in a lot of leagues, this year.
I don't really think he has much left in the tank to me.
Darrell Henderson is more saying, hey, we don't feel
comfortable with what we're getting from.
Snoop Connor right now is kind of what I read that as but I
guess you could say that that muddies the water a little bit
with the Handcuff situation. Yeah.
I'm also not worried. I mean, we've seen guys signed
off, I don't know. Sometimes we've seen guys saw in
off the street and they're immediately on the active
roster, like the fact that they're real Henderson was a
healthy scratch. I think is somewhat bearish for
I'm but yeah, I agree I'm he was really bad this year, the Rams
just straight-up caught in, you know, I think Casey played well
enough where I'm not worried. I think he could definitely take
the stoop. Connor like third in the pecking
order position but I don't have a lot of confidence in him
moving his way up the the depth chart.
Yeah, cool. We'll skip the the gross backup
running back chart here and jump into The wide receivers for this
week. I think a couple interesting
situation to discuss, certainly not as many as at running back.
There's just clearly not as much in flux.
Not as much contingent value. A couple things I do want to hit
on though. Chicago Darnell Mooney is now
out for the season with an ankle injury.
I believe, you know, the Chicago passing offense had not been
producing a ton from a It's a perspective but things had been
trending up with fields in the past couple weeks.
You know, we saw Cole combat go off for some big games.
Even some uni. Make some deep plays down the
field. So here's my question for you,
Pete. Are you I think Claypool is
like, the one potentially. Interesting guy here.
Are you like, how are you thinking about, Claypool the
rest of the way in Chicago, with Mooney?
Now, out for the year? Do you think there's a chance?
He becomes Sort of a Target hog albeit in, you know, a low, a
low volume passing offense. Yeah, this one's tough.
I mean, first of all, all of this conversation is moot.
If Justin Fields is in playing, right?
You know, like, if this injury, lingers, or if he's not back to
full health and it's just like, we want no piece of this
offense. But yeah, I guess I would just,
I think I'm being more cautious with it and that I would think
of him as like a slightly plus version of Mooney.
Maybe Mooney with more targets where it's still.
Be few and far between. I mean, maybe with this, be
another good comp, like you think of them like Drake London
in the Falcons offense where it's like, yeah, we like his
profile. We like his talent, but this
team still isn't going to throw enough for him to be consistent
on a week-to-week basis, but then you watch him, you know,
pull this insane catch down on sauce Gardner, and it's hard not
to get excited about him, but man, it's just with this
offense, I just there's no consistency.
There's no Baseline level of targets that you can expect for
him. Him.
Yeah, I agree with that. I think the floor is going to be
super low. I do think like compared to
London. Like I'd rather have Claypool
and London at this point. I think he's maybe and sort of
the DJ more range for me just because I think there there is
some ceiling there. We saw some massive 20 plus
games from colca met. I think it feels his back.
The past catching could condense on this offense around either
Claypool or commit in a given week.
I guess, another thing to note with Claypool, he had been
really behind in routes. I think he was like 5th and
routes the week before on Chicago and he jumped all the
way up to First and routes run on that team and ran 21 of 28
routes saw five targets. That was the most of any wide
receiver on the team, this past week.
So at least we can feel confident.
I think that he's going to lead the team in routes.
It may not be like 95% routes run, but it should be pretty
high. So yeah I think there's upside
there but yeah the floor is like scary low.
I think we can't even read that. Sure like what Claypool is a
talent as a talented this point? You know, it's been kind of up
and down there so I'm optimistic for some upside but I'm not like
going to rely on him as a reliable.
We can we get starter the other. The other thing, I'll just
mention for the Bears to not only do they have a by coming up
They play the Packers this week then they have a by then they
play the Eagles and the bills so it's like it's a pretty rough
stretch as far as like what kind of production you can expect.
Obviously at least the time should allow fields to get
healthy. But it's a rocky road there for
the Bears. Yeah.
That that's for sure. Okay.
And then another thing, I don't think I don't know a lot like
Connor and I talked to these charts every week.
I think stuff. Has kind of stabilized a lot of
names. You'd expect in the top right
corner there but one I think one interesting, one and discuss is
the Arizona, receiver core with Marquis Brown coming back.
Last week, we had really seen Hopkins, be sort of an elite
Target hog with brown, add the lineup and likewise we had sort
of seed Marquis Brown be close to an elite Target.
Hog with with Hopkins out of the lineup.
How do you, you know, have sort of one week of data with them
both playing, I guess. Like, who would you?
Who would you prefer the rest of the way between Hopkins and
Marquis Brown? And do you think, you know, are
they both back in water, Seaver ones, and then more back and
wide receiver to is like how are you sort of thinking about these
guys going forward? Yeah, this, this one's tough.
I mean, first of all we have classic Kliff Kingsbury saying
that Marquis Brown is going to be on a pitch count in his first
game back and then in basically playing every single snap you
know, DeAndre Hopkins part of why we've been Excited about him
for fantasy is because he just has this insane Target share and
with Marquis Brown coming back and this was a game that didn't
have Greg dorit or Rondell more playing and Rondo more have
been, you know, hoovering up, you know, eight to nine targets
himself. And so, I will say, I think I'm
most worried about DeAndre Hopkins.
Honestly. Just knowing, can he maintain
this? What did he have?
Like a 30 plus percent Target? Share for that stretch, when
these guys come back and I think the hope is for Marquis Brown.
At least, this was always the thesis all along of like, yeah,
he's not going to get as many targets, but you should
hopefully offset that with increased inefficiency, maybe a
higher, a DOT, some shots down the field with these other guys
soaking up attention. So I think I'm less worried
about Marquis Brown and just worried does DeAndre Hopkins,
you know, have such a big chunk taken out of his Target share.
Yeah, I think that is the player I'm most worried about as well.
And yeah, that, that Look at his targets.
You know, his targets about six weeks since he's been back
14:13, then he had sort of anomaly down to five and it
started way back then 1412 and then five.
So, you know, these games Riyadh, well, you had four out
of the six games this year. He's had 12 plus targets.
I don't think we're going to see that going forward.
Now with Marquis Brown back and like you said if Dortch or
Rondell more is in there especially more I think they're
gonna draw some targets. More than sort of the AJ Green,
Robbie Anderson guys are able to.
So yeah, I'm slightly concerned for Hopkins.
I was sort of touting him as like a top 5.
Top 6 wide receiver. Give him what he did before
Brown got back but I'm certainly backing off of that considerably
now. But in this this offense just
all year has not shown a ceiling where you're like oh this This
could support, you know, two to three guys in in big game
scenarios. The only thing that you can hang
your hat on with the Cardinals is that do have one of the best
playoff schedules, as far as they get the Broncos, then
they're at home versus the box and then they play the Falcons.
So, three pretty nice games there as far as the Cardinal
schedule. But yeah, I just have so little
faith and Cliff and in this offense to really give us a
ceiling performances, if it's not just volume, Driven.
Yeah. So you may be some actual bus.
If you have Hopkins on maybe see like can you trade them for CD
lamb? Can you trade them for DK?
Metcalf plus can you trade them for AJ Brown?
Like I would maybe be targeting some of those guys because
people will see Hopkins, 20 fantasy points per game and be
like, wow, like that's a steal. I think, maybe that's, that's
some moves. You could try to make with
Hopkins and your leagues where you can still trade.
Cool. Let's let's move on here.
To the next wide. Receiver chart, I didn't have a
ton a ton here, again, sort of stable from what we've seen from
past weeks. I will call out that, that
Garrett Wilson, look, he's earning a pretty sizable role at
sort of, 55 way to Target spear out Ron that's in the same range
of guys like Chris Godwin. Mike Williams T Higgins and I
just expect like the overall volume bump With with my quite
coming in to be really strong for Wilson but we've already
talked through that a bit. I think another sort of quick
note on these guys, Michael Gallop seem to clearly regain
the wide receiver to roll in Dallas last week that was
notable. You had been running behind Noah
Brown. He still hasn't really put up,
you know, a big signature Fantasy Point performance, but I
do think it's coming for Gallop, so I think he's sort of a strong
GFS play in the right matchups. Going.
Forward just given the routes. He's running now but yappy.
Any thoughts here on some of these these are all receivers in
the 70 to 85 percent routes run territory.
Any thoughts on some of these? These guys here?
Yeah, I'm curious. Your thoughts on the Chiefs wide
receivers. We have Juju who didn't
necessarily Play the full complement of snaps.
It sounds like that was partially driven by the fact
that he was returning from concussion.
We saw obviously, Justin Watson Sky more mixing in there could
area Stony out. Obviously, this is a riddle.
We want to crack because there's so much opportunity in the
Chiefs offense. But how are you thinking about
Juju? And some of these ancillary
pieces. Yeah, that that's a good
question. Sort of how I thought about Juju
all year, and let's, let's assume now, I think he will go
back to to his full roll next week.
I kind of assumed this was just a one-week wrapping up here and
coming off the concussion. I expect him to go back to the
sort of 80% ish routes, you know, 75% ish routes territory
that had been at so far this year, but yeah, good kind of how
I've been you and JuJu this year's.
He has like the this very middling role, but it's in the
Chiefs offense and that makes him a lot more valuable than he
would be otherwise. Like if you look at all the rate
stats he's not going to pop and waited targets for Route run.
He's not going to pop in that sort of metric, but the Chiefs
are just running a ton of plays. He's attached to Patrick
Mahomes, it's kind of like similar to how I view gave Davis
almost where like, I don't. I think at this point in their
career, either them or super talented players, but just
because of the offenses they're tied to, they still have pretty
big ceilings obviously in different ways you know.
Gabe Davis is more of a ceiling from a deep play perspective and
JuJu probably the ceiling is catching a bunch of passes
underneath and maybe taking one along, you know, yards after the
catch player. Something but anyways, that's
kind of how thinking about Juju, I do like expect him to have the
most Value in the Chiefs wide receiver room going forward.
But yeah, at the end of the day, it's still like sort of a
middling meddling roll. Yeah.
One other situation that's kind of interesting is we were
starting to see a little bit of a little bit of a battle between
Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks for the wide receiver.
One role in Houston you know Kyle Allen taking over kind of
throws a wrench in whatever continuity we had there but is
it safe to say Nico? Has usurped.
Brandin Cooks are you not willing to go that far yet?
I think ya can the right answer be like I just don't care
because they're on the Texan very I think with DFS Bros need
to run these Texans in our bring back Sam.
Yeah I think if I was if I was going to play a Texans wide
receiver it would be Nico at this point.
Just from a snaps perspective he has I think Been consistently
out out, snapping, Brandin Cooks and running more routes on him,
the past couple weeks, they're using a bit of a weird rotation.
Now, with Chris Moore and Dorset getting getting more and more
involved. And that seems to be at the
expense more. So of cooks, then then Nico
Collins. But yeah, I mean, my real answer
would probably be like whatever one is going to be owned last,
if you can predict that I would just go with it.
Go with that one. I know.
And DFS is he Hasn't been as easy as just looking at the
ownership projections and and going off that.
But yeah, that's one where I sort of flip a coin and fade the
field. One more for you here on this
one. You know, Chris Godwin has a
massive game. Last week.
Mike Evans continues to be so close to some big deep ball
catches. They just don't quite get there.
How are you thinking about Chris Godwin going forward?
Do you think we can expect this level of volume where you at
kind? Of with the Buccaneers passing
offense. Yeah, I'm pretty excited about
God. When I think if you drafted
Godwin this was always sort of the thesis of the play in that
he would start the season a little bit slow you know most
guys coming off ACL tears, do that.
And then down the stretch with start to feel more confident
that knee get more playing time and and really have some big
games for to return to his form for the past couple years.
And I think we're On track for that with Godwin, I don't have a
strong take between, you know, him verse Evans for the rest of
the season, but I would now put them like right back to back and
whatever rankings you have. I think they profile.
Pretty similar from sort of a Target earning perspective.
And yeah, I'm I'm still excited about the box.
I mean, this is more of like a film grinder take, but when I
watch them, it doesn't look like anything's like wrong.
With Brady. He seems to be like overthrowing
some guys deep more than he dish traditionally would, but it
doesn't look like his arm strength is gone or anything
like that. Like, I think we could still see
a bucks offensive explosion at some point this year.
So I'd be pretty excited about Godwin going down the stretch.
Yeah, I agree. Another team that also just has
a really beautiful playoff schedule home versus The Bangles
then they on the road again, Sarah.
Ozone. And then home versus the
Panthers in week. 17. Yeah.
Going to shout-out to Chris. I appreciate that.
It rain. Yeah, even then my you venmo you
Sam. Yeah, yeah.
That's that's big money for saturation.
We appreciate that. Chris even though you're
slandering my God Mariota in the chat.
Also flash up that comment. Yeah, last wide receiver thing.
I wanted to get your thoughts on this.
These Are now we're not showing the guys with 40 to 70% of
routes. Ron, you're more rotational
guys. The one interesting guy here
obviously well there's a couple but the one I want to talk about
Christian Watson. If you look at is weighted
targets for Route, Ron again that's targets for about run but
adjusted for depth of Target Christian.
Watson has a pretty Elite weighted targets for Route Ron.
He's close to the 70 percent range, that's close to guys like
DeAndre Hopkins. Ins higher than Justin
Jefferson. It's really a pretty impressive,
Mark, if you you put them in the context of other top wide
receivers in the league. And now we are seeing here.
He's shown at 40 to 50 percent routes run because is average
across the whole year, but he is running almost a full slate of
routes. Now, in, in Green Bay, I think
he led the team in routes run this past week.
Or do you s Allen Lazard but 25:28 routes, run, I believe
you'd love the team and routes run the week before.
So yeah, curious Pete is Christian Watson, you know, is
he like an every week wide receiver to now going forward.
Are you still sort of hesitant to fire him up?
Well, I was going to turn this back on you and I think it will
allow you to know where I'm kind of valuing him at, but let me
these three wide receivers. How would you rank them?
A who you would want rest of season.
Christian, Watson, Gabe Davis Divan to Smith.
Oh, that's tough. I would, you know, with some
sort of off the cuff, I think I would go.
Devaugntah Smith, Christian Watson then gave Davis.
I think, just like, obviously, the volume in Buffalo is going
to be strong, but Gabe Davis just can't learn targets like if
you go to that last chart or the first start, we have gay Davis
like at 40% targets for about Ron, he's like way over in the
left side of the chart. Christian Watson just when he's
on the field is earning a lot more targets than Gabe.
Davis is he's now earning a full route Tree in in Green Bay.
I think it's slow. Go Smith over both those guys, I
feel more confident in the overall offense in Philadelphia
than I do in Green Bay. You know, we have to Rogers
injury, and I feel just like a little bit better about the
talent and devaugntah just because we Bigger sample size
with him but yeah I think it's pretty close.
Would how so I would go de Volta Watson Gabe, how do you shake
out there Pete? I think I'm the exact same in.
It it more is just how impressed I've been by Christian Watson
and Watson has way less Target competition.
Then Gabe Davison like I still think and I think everyone would
agree that get Davis. Having a 40-point game down.
The stretch is still well within his range of outcomes.
Um's, but he's probably gonna have, you know, a bunch of five
point games litter there, and I think also seeing them really
utilize Isaiah Mackenzie on Thanksgiving, was another kind
of wrench in the Gabe Davis thesis, as far as kind of what
his Target floor is in just how they were using Mackenzie, and
it wasn't just even like, you know, really close to the line
of scrimmage stuff like they were getting Isaiah McKenzie,
the ball deeper down the field to.
So I'm a little worried about Davis, he still has the upside.
But yeah. If I'm starting a guy week in
and week out, I think you have to prefer Watson to him now.
Yeah, like how it almost thing about Gabe Davis is like it's
kind of like a juiced-up version of the old mvs role in Green
Bay. Like obviously there's more
ceiling and gave Davis and he's like a little bit of a better
title than mvs but like he's just running, he's running all
the routes but it's a lot of like clear out routes and he
just like gets targeted at such a low rate because he's such a
hiatus. Player.
So yeah, it obviously can be a big ceiling like we've seen
that. I'm not going to doubt this
dealing with Gabe Davis, but I think we've, you know, Christian
Watson and his three games where he's played a full set of
routes, has been over 20, PR points and all three games.
Like I feel pretty and one of the games was like 35 points, so
I feel pretty good about the ceiling and with Watson as well,
and I think he just has a much higher floor than Davis does, so
yeah. But that's, that's an
interesting one to talk through. Let's jump now unless you have
thoughts on trench, your field or Richie James.
Let's let's jump the tight ends quickly to close out before we
rip it draft. I think a couple like quick hits
I have here looking at this chart we're now looking at Route
percentage for tight ends so percent of their team drawbacks
were there. Running a route.
A couple just quick. It's I had number one like I
think there's been some concern. About the Mark Andrews stuff.
But his role has still been really strong upon his return.
And even though, like we haven't seen those stealing games we saw
early in the year. I think he still has upside.
He drops a touchdown pass, you know, this past week, you know,
that could have been a bigger game.
He had just caught that. So I'm not like concerned about
him. Other other quick note straight
McBride and Foster Moreau or kind of similar in that.
They're both kind of running all the routes for their team but
they they can turn Target. So that's the type of guy that I
think about as like maybe maybe more stomach proxies a little
more under the radar like I think he's a good DFS Dart.
I think. You know he said two games
reason all the routes and done absolutely nothing.
So he's going to leave a gross taste and a lot of people's
mouths based on what he's done, but just the fact that he's out
there all the time, he has some upside even if he hasn't really
shown that thus far. But yeah, other than that, kind
of a lot of what we'd expect at tight end.
Did you have any any other thoughts here?
Here, Pete at tight end. Yeah, it's interesting.
The McBride and morose stuff because I mean, I definitely
been burned by McBride over these past couple of weeks and
I'm starting to wonder at what point is it a massive red flag
that he isn't earning any Targets.
Because even though Moreau hasn't been setting the world on
fire, he has been earning a couple Red Zone Target.
So, you know, he had some near misses a couple weeks ago.
Finally gets in the end zone there, where I'm just so down on
cliff and this Cardinals offense.
And now train McBride's, not earning targets.
When both? Greg torch and Rondell more are
out here. Like if this guy's not going to
get, you know, four to five targets over the middle.
When these guys are out and Zach ertz is on, I are like, when the
fuck is it going to happen? Yeah, and I I feel similar and
like I think from like a dynasty perspective like I'm pretty
concerned about how bad and Ride has been but just from a weekly
perspective like we saw this a bit with like, commit for the
first six weeks of the year before he had those Blob games
with Fields where he was just running all the routes earning
no targets like just doing. Absolutely nothing for you and
then all of a sudden when the offense turns around he has you
know to touch down 80 yard game whatever it was and you know
probably wins you some money in DFS.
Oh my thought at titanes just like sometimes just plug your
nose and Play the guy that's earning all the routes.
Even if his Target rate is really disgusting because the
field is probably like overreacting to to how bad he's
been. So yeah that's that's my thought
there with McBride but yeah, I see your point.
It's certainly concerning when you know, it seems like all the
factors with more and doors being out would lead him to
getting targets. He doesn't even perform then so
it's it's definitely been disappointing with them.
Of all of these guys kind of on the right side of the chart who
are kind of your tight end to streamers.
You know, anyone this year has either cycled through these guys
on season-long leagues have punted it off with them in DFS,
you know, basically the Logan Thomas, the K, dot --and, the
jajuan Johnson, Austin Hooper like is anyone have a pulse here
or are these all just going to be super low for Dart throws
week to week. Yeah, that's so I think if I'm
looking at that list now, Hunter Henry jumps out a little bit to
me, just in that Jacoby Myers. I think we'll miss the game, so
I think that that raises Henry's floor and ceiling, you know,
last year, he was a guy who had a bunch of multi-touch down
games. I think like that could still
happen this year. So I think he'd be the guide
Patek, I do want to point out jajuan Johnson, I think has been
canceled actually, Troutman out, snapped, him and ran more
routes. And I'm this past week.
So, you know, whatever like the usability with jajuan Johnson.
I think is gone, even though he shows up at this chart here.
Okay. So he didn't get, he was out
snapped by Troutman Troutman and taysom Hill, ran 14 and 15
routes and Juwan ran 19. So he was running like Just over
50% of his team's routes, which is not, not very good there for
him. So, yeah, I do back, tears will
question, Tyler. Higbee is like an offensive
lineman. Now, I think like a hunter
Henry, out of that list of names is the guy I'm most excited
about. They're the only thing I do.
Want to point out quickly. David and joke.
Ooh, there was some concern as first week back that he had kind
of a limited role Roll. He was pretty like last week he
was back to you know close to his full-time role.
So I think you can fire up in Joker with with confidence and a
specially with the Sean coming back.
But yeah, that's in anything else.
Yeah we should talk about this Jelani Woods having a massive
game last night. I know all of our tight end
premium Bros are interested in him and basically Anyone who has
a pulse at tight end is relevant.
Yeah. What's your take on?
Jelani is big game. Yeah, I would, I would like
closely modeled with Jelani. I would closely monitor the Kyle
and grants and injury news. I think like that really allowed
him to could run more routes than he normally would have.
But yeah, he had 27 routes on 39.
Matt Ryan drawbacks Mo, Ali cocks only had 11 so almost sort
of tripling them up. In in routes, I think that's a
really good sign for Jelani and his Prospect profile.
If I remember correctly was, you know, he's basically a freak
athlete. I want to say, he has a
basketball background but kind of more of like a wide receiver.
Pass-catching tight end, then then a blocker.
So I think someone you can be a little bit excited about and
Dynasty. And with the Colt season, you
know, kind of going down the drain.
I don't see why they wouldn't see what they have.
In this guy going down the stretch.
So yeah, certainly someone like if he's on waivers and you're
desperate for 10 points, I think you can spend a decent bit of
Fab on him, but I just be careful, starting him, you know,
when Colin dries in his back. Yeah, that's the thing.
I mean, we, you just don't see it in the same way we sometimes
see, with wide receivers and running backs, where it's like,
these guys pop up for a big game, and then there's positive,
you know, inertia in their role grows.
It's like, you could have jajuan Johnson, you know, No score a
touchdown in four or five games and then get caught by Adam
Troutman, like that just happens at tight end.
In a way, it doesn't seem to happen at other positions, Yeah,
and like with the Colts, I the mo Ali, cockscomb stuff comes to
mind where he's always been a guy that his peripherals of
looked really good. He's got a high Target rate.
I've wanted to chase that for a while and it just hasn't hasn't
seemed to work out for him. So, Yeah.
Yeah, cautiously optimistic under Lonnie but not someone.
I'm overly excited about cool. Well, I think that's all I had
at tight end. Not any other injuries or
anything I can think of, for this week.
So, does it make sense to get an underdog Underdog laughter?
Let's get a draft. Do you want me to pull it up or
do you want to pull it up? Yeah, you can pull it up if you
want your Little more Nimble and getting the pics and you wanted
how about we do a goal-line stand.
So we get a 12 12 person draft instead of the quick six
hitters. Yeah that sounds good.
All right, who wants to hop in a goal-line stand with us here for
week 12? No, current playoff drafts live.
That first one filled. I imagine within the next week
will probably be get another playoff draft up but but not
now, Yeah, I'm excited for when those come back.
I've been sort of digging into the the data but they're so
definitely going to do some statue hastening Focus shows on
the playoff tournament once they come out so we'll see.
Okay, draw the four spot here, let's see.
Yeah, so this is this is a fun week.
This is one of the first weeks in DFS when I've looked across
the slate and seen multiple games with a total over 50 like
that just has not Not happened a lot this year.
So you have the Jacksonville Detroit, game, 51 and a half
total you have the Casey Cincinnati game, 52 and a half
and then you have Chargers, Raiders 50.5.
So we actually have some some decent games this week.
Yeah. Yeah.
Now that's the the Detroit Jacksonville.
One jumped out to me that so I don't know, but I just think of
those two teams. I don't immediately think of
like a shootout but it makes That's what their defense is.
And both those offenses have been playing better recently so
that can be sort of a sneakier and sneakier one that goes under
the radar a bit so basic strategy here.
P diamond on a ton of these. But like how I sort of thought
about them is you want to Stack up a game and then with your
last couple pics go like a bit off of the ADP, radar to get
more unique. Is that how you've been thinking
about them like any other strategy things?
Yeah, so I mean the one thing verse the Battle Royale Alice is
it is a little harder like in battle royales because there's
only six teams. It's a little easier to kind of
dial up your Stacks, whereas with the 12 team are like you
can just legit get sniped. Like you might think your set
something up so you have to be a little careful with that, you
know, one thing in general with or let's let's have this
conversation here. I mean for me it's probably
Jefferson or Tyreke. You have a lien on those two
guys. I would go.
I think I would go Jefferson here.
I think it'll be easier to get the game stack with the Jets
that was sort of the tiebreaker singing through.
Yeah. Yeah.
I mean the one thing to and like this has been playing out in DFS
and battle royales. Like I'm still Pro stacking.
I'm just like not forcing bring backs if I if I don't need to
and this is definitely colored by looking at awesomo winning.
These tournaments with Raiders on slots and not a single
Chargers bring back. But I do think myself in general
in the field is probably many correlating and bring backing
more where I actually think the it we always talk about getting
less things, right? And it's like yeah when you when
you do a mini correlation or a Bring Back, Your actually trying
to get two things, right? Whereas, when you're just
betting on one offense, you're actually just just getting one
thing, right? And yet I still will be like,
all right. Garrett, Wilson's available,
man. We should take care of will sit
here. So, So life is I've never
reaching for those guys. But that is one thing.
I'm trying to check myself on more than I did previously.
Yeah, that's interesting. And I think with like DFS first
drafting is different to you. Where like if you want to bring
back and you're playing DFS, you always can write because you
pick your line up whereas with your afternoon, like there can
be players in the field that wanted to bring back some latest
can't because of how the draft shakes out.
So I wonder if it's like still slightly better and drafting
formats for Yeah, that's formats.
That's just me postulating. They'll like it.
I don't know if that's true at all.
Well, I mean you can kind of do some comparables where it's
like, all right. Like if you're reaching for, you
know, say Garrett Wilson, you're probably sacrificing some
projected points, same thing in DFS like if you're jamming a
bring back in, in your passing over a guy.
Who's multiple guys who are better points per dollar plays?
That might be bad, but like as the tiebreaker, if you're not
sacrificing points like that, Ation is worth something and
should be the tiebreaker. Yeah, I would say it's more.
I think the other thing that then really start to warp your
brain and maybe the badge, Bros guys, could could weigh in on
this is that it's probably less bad in this format where
there's, you know, 12 teams, whereas in the 60 Murs, it's so
easy. Like, if you draft just in
Jefferson, you can get Garrett Wilson.
And basically, every draft, if you want and knowing that, that
the Tutorial ownership, take a drink of Jefferson and Garrett
Wilson is going to be pretty high in that format.
Almost makes you want to avoid it for uniqueness purposes.
Whereas in this maybe it's a little less unique maybe people
are staying out of their way a little bit more.
I don't know. Yeah.
Yeah that's the fascinating thing with these tournaments is
like, like me it's so hard. We don't have the data on what
the field is actually doing. Like we know that if the field
was randomly picking players, nothing about bring back some
bring backs would be beneficial but it can obviously get to a
point where that's over baked into the price and the
combinations where you actually, you know, the uniqueness
perspective of not having the bring back is actually more.
Beneficial. Like I I would lean that we're
not there yet and that's still a benefit of going for the bring
back especially when you're not reaching for it.
But yeah, they're like you said the 60 MERS like where it's so
easy to stack them up. There could be some Game Theory
there where you might not want to force it.
So we still have looking at like cozzens ATP.
We still have a lot, we can still wait on that quite a bit.
Don't need to flush that. So we've had two quarterbacks
go. Go which means we have 10 more.
Still to go so you will be in the 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 like
someone's going to be in the Kirk Cousins Kenny but like if
we want to wait on Kirk Cousins like we're going to be able to
get Kirk Cousins. Yeah.
So we're looking here. I mean we were both talking
about Kenneth Walker earlier to me.
He looks like the best play here.
Is there is there anyone else you would you throw out?
I think Walker is the play. Yeah with etn and mix in both
like potentially injured. I think that there's going to be
a pretty big tear break at running back after him.
Yeah, so yeah, the role for Walkers really good.
The Rams are abysmal. This could be a game where
Seattle can run the ball a million times.
Like you always hope it's like not too big of a blow out that
they pull Walker. Like that's almost my, my bigger
concern for a Chambers, the ramseys days.
Yeah, I know there was I just know from DFS last week that
some people were talking about the Rams being a bit of a past
funnel, that their run defense is, is better.
But But I just don't know if that shit matters.
Yeah, yeah I don't know. Yeah I don't like well this is
interesting. Yeah go ahead.
Yanez says top three lineups in the 16 Battle Royale.
Last week at Stax ultimately was Jacob's.
That was all that mattered but the skinny Stacks still seem to
be the meta which definitely which definitely makes sense.
When you only have six spots you know the over stacking on draft.
And when you have nine spots versus six, it definitely
changes the calculus. Yeah, another question for this
format. Losing is there and Donald out
I'm so yeah, defensive yes, guy, yeah, yeah, the wow.
So yeah. Imagine that affects things in a
pretty meaningful way in this format.
Like I thought I saw something where say like same you draft
Nixon and then he's ruled out. Can you like sub someone in?
Is that like a okay? Got it.
You set, you set your personal rankings and so like, say we
drafted this and we drafted mix in and we wanted to put perine
at the top of our rankings or whatever.
Other back it just obviously has to be a back.
That wasn't drafted, but if we set our rankings, then you are
able to sub them. And so there is definitely some
Merit to taking swings like Josh Jacobs this week would be a good
one right where it's like he plays he's a Smash If not what's
the opportunity cost you could plug in zamir white you can plug
in another running back who's To be available.
We're now we're back to our correlation talk.
TJ Hawkins said with a Kirk double Garrett Wilson with a
bring back anything else you like?
I think I would go will send here.
I think like I'm hesitant to over stack with like Hawkinson
and Jefferson. I think like We can get away
with just one of them but yeah. I think it's a bit of a toss-up.
Would you have gone with that? Yeah, I think so.
You know, maybe you we could have told herself a story of if
cmc's limited and out that debose actually a pretty sick
value in the third, but I don't mind it.
The other thing, I guess this would have been the same for
Debo but like if we do happen to get sniped on Kirk for some
reason, we now have a Mike White out is As well as another
stacking partner, which I think is, is interesting.
Yeah, yeah. I think that's imply.
I mean, he's shown a ceiling into out of his four games in
the NFL, I think, you know, it's not horrible if you end up with
with my quite. Yeah, but we also like, I think
here, We don't necessarily need to force one of those
quarterbacks, right? Like, if not, we're back like I
don't know who can make it back to us but like maybe Lamar
Watson, someone like that who has a bit more like rushing
upside makes the back to us. I would almost be inclined to to
go there. I do see both Cleveland pass
catchers are gone so maybe the Watson stuff a little less
interesting. Yeah we did we definitely still
have options. I think that's kind of the
luxury of having two. The Fringe quarterbacks as our
stack Partners who aren't going to, get, drafted, otherwise.
But if we get an extreme value but then you do kind of want to
think through would you kind of backdoor stack them, or would
you would you run a guy like Lamar naked or would you be,
would you feel obligated to toss in a Duvernay or Demarcus
Robinson there? Yeah.
Yeah that makes sense. Yeah another thing like not
having a ton of these I'm still getting the feel for it.
Like how much do you think about positional scarcity is like
particularly in regards to tight end?
Like I wonder if like we may be fucked up a little bit and not
going Elite tight end because it seems like wide.
Receiver gets really flat for a while whereas like once Mark
Andrews is off the board. Like you know, even some of
these next guys like tight end kind of falls off a cliff pretty
quickly so I don't know. Are you more inclined to like
lock up an elite tight end and these formats knowing that you
can find like a late-round wide receiver with, with upside and
maybe a way that you can't find like a super later.
I'd cut out with a late round tie down with upside.
Yeah, I agree with that. I just think that the lens or I
don't know what the word I'm looking for.
What we Define, as a lie. Tight end has just narrowed so
much that it's Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.
And so I think taking Mark Andrews over.
Justin Jefferson is probably a little too rich, but in general,
I agree. Like, I think Mark Andrews at
pick 15 here is a screaming steel.
I think like efficiently, he probably should be like seven or
eight. Like, give me Mark, Andrews over
Patrick Mahomes like for sure, just thinking about the way he
could separate and this is all just colored by recency bias.
And Him, you know, like you said it, Mark Andrews.
Catches that touchdown last week he's literally going 1516.
Like we're talking about one drop in his ATP is much higher,
so I'm with you positionally. I think Mark Andrews is is way
to discounted this week. Yeah, yeah.
That definitely stood out to me. Okay, cool.
Let's see. What are we Another guy that we
talked about at the top of the queue here.
Yeah. The another one did ya?
Cristian Kirk already. When I did see Trevor Lawrence
here? Verse Detroit is obviously
interesting, but I don't think we necessarily have to force
that Yeah. Yeah, let's see here.
So this guy might go, okay, I was yeah I don't think this guy
will take a quarterback. So what do you think about
Fields here? Like I mean, just with the the
logic of we could probably sell them out for my quite if he
doesn't play. Yeah II.
I will also say, yeah, Watson who we talked about it.
Is interesting. Yep.
I wonder just because we have so many quarterback outs.
What do you think about taking Watson and see if Fields Falls
to us? I like that.
And that gives us even the Rogers.
I mean, Dad. Yeah, we could stop Rogers out
for Jordan love if he doesn't play or whatever to write.
So yep. Yeah, we basically have every
single quarter back out if we want.
So, I do think. It doesn't make sense to to grab
Fields there and that'll bills guy.
Yeah. I think that was a good call
there. I think there's a pretty big
tear break and skilled position guys.
I mean Watson, I just feel really confident with Watson
running a Full Slate of routes that he's a pretty pretty high
up side, play the rest of the way.
So. Yeah.
And we, I mean, Trevor Lawrence goes this guy is Borough will
see what G does here. He doesn't have anything lined
up, stack wise, but could set something up, but I think it was
the, I think it was the right move.
Yeah, And so he doesn't go Court.
Like there's only two teams dark and whatever that one says at
the end that will be looking for quarterbacks.
So we can even if there's like, a skill position guy.
We like, we can even I don't know because like, I don't have
a huge between like whitefield's Watson or sorry, whitefield's
Rogers cousins like I guess Fields is the, is the best from
a ceiling perspective, pretty clearly.
But his injury, I don't know. The only other thing to Think
Through is who are tight ends going to be right because our
last two pics of quarterback tight end fields and so with the
opens gone, so Fields goes to G because he loves just twisting
the knife you there was no way he was going to take feels if we
didn't talk about him. So I think we definitely wait on
q b now. Just knowing we're going to be
able to get white or cousins and then the question is like, who
do we want to do at tight end? Oof.
I mean, Conklin gives you the double if you do want to like
bet like if my quiet is balling and winning us this tournament
like Conklin's probably coming along for the ride or do you
like it? Yeah.
Yeah I think I was going to agree with you on on Coughlin
because just because like there's not a lot of other
Talent two guys here and Calkins role has been, there was a
period where Zuma was taking a bunch of Apps.
That's kind of died out but I'm sorry.
What was the other option? Your throw up?
So that's Conklin. I was, I mean, I didn't feel
good about it. I was going to say like commit
gives us a mini with Watson, but I agree with you.
Like, this tier is so fucking flat that it's like what might
as well break it in favor of correlation here.
Yeah, I agree. And if, if someone Sick Enough
To draft my quite without Garrett Wilson or Tyler Conklin,
like I'll salute Maybe yeah set up the the my quite Braixen bury
a stack to get unique. Thank you kids, loose
consiglieri. I'm not sure.
Yeah any day now here it could be I might sneak in another
stream or two but we're getting down to the nitty-gritty.
Well it's going to be I could go down in streaming history is
doing the last draft with you before was the father that have
going my Twitter bio for sure. I think yeah yeah.
SFP 12 Pete's final childless stream.
Let's see, do we have any other interesting teams here?
Mookie, doing the back door with Herbert so he grabs her birth
and goes Everett in. Mike Williams is certainly
interesting. Indy here out of the ten slot
does get the Lamar Andrews. We have a hurt AJ Brown from
Nez. Wow.
Jamaal Williams in the third Nez says, fuck your regression.
I'm Takin Jamaal Williams in the third.
That is bold. But I mean a little So many with
Evan engram. Fading Jamaal Williams is just.
It's not working might as well drive.
Yeah. Lean into the skid.
Yeah so everyone I mean just looking at these teams like
everyone everyone's drafting like maybe there's I don't know
some teams that aren't stacking up or maybe building teams like
differently from how I would I guess the first like team to and
team 3 I don't quite see the angles.
They're going for from a stacking perspective but like
almost everyone else is just like seemingly stacking up games
or at least individual teams, which makes sense.
Yeah, I'm with you. I don't, I Don't really
understand. Like I don't necessarily mind
uncorrelated teams, but if I'm not worrying about correlation,
I'm quote-unquote, you know, scooping up value.
I'm definitely not taking a quarterback in the second round.
Yeah, that's my thought as well. Or even like, With Trevor Lon.
Like, if I had that team, I'm probably going for the stealing
quarterback and Fields over Lawrence.
So, okay, so we're going to be our choice of white versus
cousins, I guess or, yeah. I think just because we
double-stacked, that's where I would lie and I would go with
the, why? Just because like you said,
getting less things right, would make me to lean white over
causes and I'm not even like I don't think cousins has a higher
ceiling, really? You know, I don't know.
I think yeah I think it's it was a coin flip.
If it was just like Wilson and Jefferson who you wanted, maybe
I would slightly lean Jeff urged cousins, just because
Minnesota's at home, but once we took Conklin, I think I
definitely prefer it. There's just so few scenarios
where Conklin and Wilson are kidding there and Garrett
Wilson's, not optimal for that roster.
Yeah, yeah I agree with that and the end Michael, it's gonna get
there through through passing. So I think like I think that's a
situation where double-stack makes more sense verse.
Like if you're going to go with the Lamar hurts, like they're
probably getting there with 100 yards rushing or something and
you probably just want to sing single stack them?
Yeah, cool. Nice want to do one quick Battle
Royale six-person one here. Yeah, let's do it.
Let's do it. Let's keep the badge Brigade out
of this one. Yeah, that was a heavy didn't
even comment on that but that was a heavy bad for grade draft,
I guess. All these like weekly we could
really really for the for the sick.
As I was doing some of these battle royales this afternoon
and it was only badge Brigade in those.
Yeah. Yeah, help with the playoff
contest. Will I feel like that maybe
because that attracts like less of the like pure DFS crowd which
I think is drawn to the ease and maybe more of just like the
Casual players for the playoff contest.
I don't know. I'm hoping it draws out a little
more casuals. Yeah, I think to people because
the twelve persons take a just a little bit longer to fill that
people get antsy and they're like I can just hop in a battle
royale and I know it's going to fill in 30.
Seconds. Yeah.
Which that's we do have a tag in the deposit Kingdom Discord.
You can go into the badge, Bros Channel, and tag people.
When you're trying to fill you first, you get the role in the
lobby, there's a channel that's roles and you can opt in to the
badge, Bros roll, and then people can tag you and they're
trying to fill these drafts, so that's cool.
Yeah, this comment here I thought was interesting.
Is it wider? Two Jet's just not let other
quarterbacks exceed feel like Jets kind of played the game
sharper and play calling i-i'm not like a film expert.
But one thing I did see related to that is that my quite just
and Joe Flacco, both got the ball out just considerably
faster than Zach Wilson did and also take sex at a much lower
rate so I think that's like the biggest thing.
I think Zak Willis has a ton of arm talent in a way that Flacco
and white. We don't, but they just play the
game a lot smarter and just like, make make the quick reads
in a way that Wilson can't. So, yeah, I don't know.
That's my don't think whites is like unbelievable talent, but I
think he's just like, confident in a way that sack Wilson is
not. And if the thesis is Garrett,
Wilson is just really fucking good and it's been held down by
atrocious quarterback, play, like that.
Also boosts my how you view my quite as well, because it's
saying he's has you know what? Legit be like a top 12 Talent.
So what do we want to? Where the fuck is Mark Andrews?
Holy cow. Mark Andrews.
ATP is low. We could probably wait on him.
Do you want to get a he'll share hear anything else?
Yeah, that's how I react is the one that jumps out to me.
Yeah that game could be that game could be fun.
I think people are going to shy away from it a little bit.
They're going to worry about the Dolphins on the road at San
Francisco, but that game could pop off.
Yeah. Yeah, I agree and we didn't
really touch on in in the charts this week, but Ty, reeks roll.
It's just like absolutely and saying like he's he's even like
kind of in a tier above guys. Like you know, from a Target
earning enroll perspective, guys like digs and and Jefferson like
it's just been absolutely smashing this year.
So I think I would draft him as the first wide receiver overall.
We were doing like a rest of season fantasy rankings.
I'm with you. I think it's really close
between him and Jefferson but just the way that offense is
constructed like gimme Tyree kill.
Um do you want to do Andrews here?
I do think he's like the best pick that's available but I'm
open to other avenues to. Yeah, I've go Andrews.
I think, I think you can go a lot of different ways but I
think just that I think like it's a tear of to and maybe
you'd even say Kelsey is in his own tier and then Andrews in
this tier after that, it's like yeah like a bunch of guys after
that but like there's a big drop off especially in these you know
we're going to have six like good football players and these
drafts. But if you don't take Andrews or
Kelsey, you're going to have like a question mark at tight
end. So yeah.
Yeah, I still think that the tight ends in this format and
obviously they can, they can burn you too, but there's just
no one else that can match Travis Kelce ceiling other than
Andrews. Yeah.
I mean there. Yeah.
If you they basically want receivers both Kelsey and
Andrews and their Elite wide receivers in terms of their
their target earning their. Yeah, they're true.
Outliers the position. It's been funny to watch Nick
Chubb, scream up ATP. Like with these opened he was a
little bit below and then the DVP Bros come out and Nick Chubb
screams up. Yep.
Well verse here, I think that matchup versus Houston people, a
lot of people are just looking at that and just I don't know if
the offense if Watson can can get the offense going back and
be like a Nick Chubb for Touchdown game against that
awful, Houston to him. Yeah, but yeah, his role is just
not that not that big obviously. We should have some nice options
here at wide receiver. AJ Brown versus Tennessee, seems
nice. I'm on robbers, Jacksonville
waddle, San Francisco or we could double up on running back.
Oh, here go. The wide receivers flying off
the board. What do you like?
I was gonna throw out. McCaffrey because of that the
mini correlation there, I'm going to have to force it.
But yeah, I think I like McCaffrey and Berkeley.
Yeah, I don't know about the dub.
I feel like like, obviously waddle and Tyree can both have
huge games, we've seen that this year, but I think I would
slightly shy away from the double stack.
Well, it's So one that you you don't have to force.
Like we can take McCaffrey here and then we can see if Waddles
there. And then, if you end up with
both Hill and waddle like no one's taking to, I would, I
would doubt. Yeah.
I think if. Yeah, there's a kind of a drop
off if we don't get one of the calf or your broccoli, there at
running back. So, I like that.
Yeah. Yeah, they waddle waddle does
go. Who do you like here?
We're not sweetest girls are, or I was just gonna say, might as
well you could Stack Up Lamar to.
I think we should just, I think we should do that.
Like, if, if Baltimore goes off, it's so going to be so heavily
concentrated with with those two guys, I think so.
Yeah, that makes sense. And I don't think I don't want
to touch any Denver, bring back soon.
Let's count this. This this is the poster.
The poster boy for not forcing a bring back.
The fucking Denver Broncos. Averaging 14 points 6 points
again God. Yeah it's just mad.
I still can't believe how bad how bad Ross is and like How
good also how good the Seahawks are without Ross like is just
completely breaking breaking my brain.
Like everyone was so sure that Pete Carroll was this dumbass
coach. He was limiting Ross, and they
were so dumb for not taking a quarterback in the draft.
I was one of these people. I'm not saying other people are
not like I totally thought that too and then just Gino smashes.
Russ is terrible. Like Ken Walker running back.
They didn't really need is like the number-one Dynasty running
back now like they just This. Y'all just got a lot of things,
right? It's pretty funny.
Yeah, it's absolutely insane. It does seem like Nathaniel
hackett's going to make it through this season though,
which is, which is kind of crazy to me.
Like if he wasn't fired now, like what's getting him fired?
They should have fired him once, I couldn't get Rogers, like that
was just brought in right? And then, yeah, you couldn't do
that. And oh, man, I don't know.
Yeah. What's up Wonder?
Like what is it with Ross? Like I haven't heard any good
like did he just have like crazy athleticism early in his career?
And is that wore off? He hasn't been able to like, do
the gun-slinging like run around and make make plays thing.
Or like, I'm just trying to figure out, like, what caused
this massive drop-off. It's, it's kind of tough to
tough to even think about. Yeah.
So, thinking about our Endgame here.
A little bit basically like, correlation wise.
I don't think there's anything with what we've already done.
That we need to think about necessarily know.
I would just think we should just take.
Like I think here we should just take whatever we think is like
the highest. Yeah healing player and then
with her last pic like get a little off the wall like scroll
down a bit but I think here I'm sure I don't know.
I mean we have mix and I think is decent if he plays we can
always submit Mout I think etn. Same logic.
I like etn for this one. Yeah.
Detroit's been so bad and etn sounds like he's completely
fine. Yeah, I like, I like that.
That's a really high total game. Yeah, this is where it can get.
Like, if you're wanting to get, Get weird.
I mean Pickens against Atlanta is interesting if you want to
play Mike Williams back first. The Raiders has some interesting
stuff. You could go all the way down to
like a trail and Burks. Kind of crazy to me that like
DK. Metcalf isn't getting drafted in
some of these. Yeah throw your Dart in
anyone's. Good with me.
Do you think that calf isn't like off-the-wall enough?
The only, the only other thing I would say I feel like you don't
have to get quite as off the wall on a Tuesday because this
atp's going to get settled way, way more later in the week.
I like my, I like that. My Cafe.
Yeah. Like he I think he's
undervalued, he's been a little unlucky.
From a touchdown perspective this year.
Like hasn't had any like massive blowout game so I think that's
maybe what suppressing as ATP but yeah it, yeah.
And my thought too is just like if we can you know someone like
etn. I think once he's practicing,
you know and and completely good.
Like I think his ADP moves up a smidge.
And so then I start to say, okay if you're drafting early in the
week and you're getting some combos that the rest of the
Field isn't getting, I'm less worried.
Whereas like when I'm drafting Sunday morning I'm like we
better get fucking weird because all of this shit has been
established and there's so many of these combos that have
already been drafted. Yeah.
That that makes sense.
Yeah, this is a fun team here. So this one we just drafted
Lamar to Andrews. Oh where did it go?
Llamar de Andrews. We have the CMC Tyree kill mini
and then someone off CTN and Metcalf definitely just A
massive ceiling. So all of these guys.
Yeah this team. This team is really fun.
Yeah I'd like the I like the Lamar to Andrews.
Stack lot to. I think that's just been
undervalued by recency bias, a little bit.
So that's a fun one to have for cool.
Land the plane Sam. So Pete, thanks, thanks for
joining. We will be back next week.
I think, Connors hopefully healthy by then for another
recast, a chasing other than that, I'll be posting the
charts. We talk through this week on
Twitter. If you want to look at those in
more detail, I think they're helpful for your sit starts for
your waivers for your DFS, so I'll get those out.
On Twitter at Sherman underscore ffb.
But yeah, other than that good luck to everybody in week 13.
Well yep. And we'll also will be will be
back tomorrow night. I believe Leone is going to join
us on ship chasing. We are chasing the playoffs in
our 10 knfc leaks. We're going to break down some
of the decisions. There we lost Kyle pins.
So we have trained There's gonna be lots of, you know, Jelani
Woods Hunter, Henry type talk tomorrow show as we piece
together our waiver wire situation.
Maybe is there going to be a rehash of the the backup kicker
discussions between probably exactly.
Thank you guys for hanging out in the chat and thank you again
to Sam and Draco for doing such great work on stat chasing this
year. Like Sam said, check out those
charts will retweet Sam's charts on the ship.
Singing handle, definitely hop in the Discord and chill with us
if you guys have not yet. So for Sam I'm heat will see you
guys tomorrow night. Peace.