Hello everyone and welcome to a special May 13th edition of ADP
Chasing. We're joined today by special
guest Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy to discuss his early
ranking disagreements with the market.
We're also debuting a new ADP chasing intro clip for the first
time. Let's hit it.
ADP chasing is for when you watch ship chasing, you go.
These guys are just football guys.
And the targets for outrun leagues, that's going to be
really nice. Actually back in if it's
ashenet. Compared to our crystal ball,
close your eyes. You know all your entries are
going to lose anyway, yeah? That's fair.
This is a deuce von show. It's anti cabal.
It's anti the best ball, thought leader.
I'm obviously lying to some degree, 'cause like I have a lot
of both of these guys. It's.
The most disgusting thing you can make, but man, that's
incredible great. Who do we give credit?
Who do we give credit to for that again, Zach?
Lanard Zach Lanard, Who also if you if if people have not
checked out the highlight video that we have from the first
season of ADP Chasing, which is on the YouTube channel, they
should check that out. He made that as well.
Wow, Just just incredible stuff. Hayden, thanks for joining us
today. I think it's now second year in
a row we've had you on as the first ADP chasing guest the
season. How you doing?
Doing well. Excited to join Rashi Rice.
Chasing. I've been tuning in and it's all
you guys talking about nowadays. He's the he's the most
interesting guy to think about in the player pool right now.
There there is. You know, with such little
change in in informational, he's really the only interesting guy
to think about at this time. I would love to talk about Rashi
Writes less. Could you help us out there?
Yeah, yeah. Rashi, please.
Since last week, there's been a new police report.
We we have another police report to talk about Rashi.
Writes There's been a police report.
There's been stuff that's come out about teams having them off
their draft boards last year. There's been all sorts of stuff.
So don't don't worry, we'll we'll get to that later.
We might as well dive in now. I wanted to start Hayden with
your ranking disagreements. You pulled this chart together
and I just want to start from a sort of macro draft landscape.
We don't need to get into specific players, but you know,
my interpretation of this chart is you're much higher than the
market on early running backs, you know say to pick 60 or 70 or
so. I'm just curious how you're, if
you were drafting in these tournaments.
Obviously you can't. You know you're an underdog
employee, but how would you be thinking about your macro draft
strategy with respect to running back in the in the early rounds?
Well, I I feel like the the first thing I wanted to do is
after tinkering with my rankings displayed, I'm on a chart like
this so I could get a feel for like where I'm going to be
higher on guys in general and lower on guys in general.
That way I'm not just like completely overloading into one
position. So like even though my ranking
suggests I have a bunch of running backs early, I'm not
like taking 4 running backs. I'm like the top 8 rounds like
very often. So to me it's still about the
just roster construction kind of buckets and then kind of filling
into that. I think that this year just
because the running back prices are down, like like not even
exaggerating like another two rounds in general, I'm going to
be more willing to take those guys.
I think for for the first round it's like all wide receivers
anyways. So it's not like it's like the
old robust RB days where like you would literally start with
running back, running back, running back.
Like now it's like there are RB teams would be like wide
receiver, wide receiver and then like 3 running backs like the
next four or five rounds. So it's just a it's a totally
different market now, which makes the historical data really
challenging to navigate because the prices are completely
different at the two positions that matter by far the most,
running backs and wide receivers.
But for the most part, like, no matter if I have a bunch of
running backs early, if I don't have 4-5 wide receivers by round
seven, five, or six wide receivers by round ten, I've
done something drastically wrong.
So maybe like the other take away would be that I'm not
drafting the elite tight ends very often because I'm not
willing to sacrifice wide receiver points, and I think the
running back values are at a good price point.
So if there was a position I was going to kind of punt off this
year, it would be the tight ends.
And I think going to yeah, that go out Corinne.
Well, I was just going to ask because it seems like your
rankings pretty clearly show that you see value popping up at
running back in the second round with like Josh Jacobs, Etienne
Henry, Pacheco, like that group you have quite a bit above.
But the thing that makes this year so interesting to me is
that the values don't stop. So, like, I agree with you like
all these guys. Like Najee Harris is not someone
I've ever been excited to draft. I think he's a pretty good pick
this year. Zach Moss, Jonathan Brooks
Raheem Monster. Brian Robinson, Zeke.
I have no issues with any of these guys.
Right. So that's to me that's the tough
thing is that if you it's it's not about finding running back
value. It's about maximizing the
running back value you get while also kind of sticking with the
principles that you that you've laid out.
We're making sure you have enough wide receiver firepower.
It's it's it's kind of a balancing act.
Yeah, I think that's going to determine who makes the money
this year. And I think what I'm going to be
doing is like they're kind of boundaries like typically like I
was listed like 5 to 6 running or four to five wide receivers
by round seven is typically that's been optimal every single
year in basketball. So all four years it's been that
kind of structure. Maybe in previous years I would
have had five, this year I might be at four and kind of do one
more detour in the 1st 10 rounds.
So maybe and I would typically only have 3 running backs
through round ten this year. If if I add a Brian Robinson and
Inaji Harris as my my RB threes and RB4 and rounds 8 and 10, I
think I'd be OK with that. So.
Are you done at that point? Like, are you?
Are you taking? I've well, if I have a fifth
running back it'll be like the last couple rounds, but I have
to say. So are you going back to the the
hyper fragile teams or kind of thinking of it that way?
Yeah, a little bit. I don't want to get like 2 out
of the buckets though. Like we have four different kind
of seasons now. And for the things that have
been optimal every single year, I feel like staying
directionally close to that and then making like slight tinkers
is probably the way to approach. Them And what are the rules of
thumb again for wide receivers? Yeah, let me pull them up
exactly. So this is for every single year
this has been either completely optimal or almost optimal.
Four or five wide receivers through round seven, five or six
wide receivers through round 10, and then seven or eight wide
receivers through round 18, which is like pretty much
consensus anyways. I think there's a lot of ways we
can kind of get there, but like if I drafted 4 wide receivers in
the first four rounds, I others would draft the fifth in the
sixth wide receivers in round five, round six, no problem.
I think I'm at the point where I would want to push that a little
bit and kind of call it a day a little earlier than usual.
Can you guys hear my cat screaming, by the way?
Yeah, I. Heard that?
He's he well, he understands that there's someone else who
actually sees the truth and beauty and Chase Brown and he's
so right now what he's doing is he's calling out and he's being
like look, you can try and make. Davis, boss.
Happen. It it's the opposite of what you
think, Davis. I think that's he's very low on
Chase Brown. No, I know you.
No, Aiden is low on Chase Brown. The cat is saying.
The cat is saying I I understand the truth and the way and the
life of of Chase. Brown.
He's great in my screen merchant leagues where he gets well.
Turns out you get a lot of points.
Turns out you get a lot of points for bringing a screen
merchant. Yeah, that's great.
We're all in screen merchant leagues, Hayden, these.
Are the IT is great. It is great.
I would like to see a single Chase Brown run.
That would be helpful, but we'll see.
Well, I would like to see a single Zach Moss break a tackle,
but then after he breaks the tackle, continue advancing the
run and breaking the tackle and then immediately going down.
It's me personally something I'd like to see.
This is why David Monk. Earlier now I will say we've
made fun of Chase Brown for having one good play last year.
But if you watched that screen, he literally just catches a
screen pass and he has blockers in front of him and he just runs
straight like he's fast. He's not even an impressive
play. It's not an.
Impressive play. It's not an impressive play like
any running back could have done it.
So the I still think that. Any running back, not any
running back. Ezekiel.
Zeke. Zeke cannot do it.
Yeah, Zeke cannot do it. AJ Dillon couldn't do it.
But besides that? Dillon could not do it.
I mean look, Chase Brown did have 330 rushing attempts his
final season in college. I I think this is not, this is
not, you know, Dylan Dylan Lauby right, where he had more
receiving yards than than rushing yards.
Really the the take away would be if you wanted to not just be
a religious zealot about drafting off rankings, but to
use it to make market based decisions.
It would be instead of taking Jayden Reid, Terry Mclaurin,
Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, whomever it would be take Travis
Etienne, Josh Jacobs, Isaiah Pacheco, Kenneth Walker.
Those those rounds 4-5 running backs are, I mean look they are
huge discounts relative to what the running back.
What would the What's the lowest the running back 12 has ever
been in fantasy football, I don't think.
This is this is. Not one.
It would not even be close. It would be like 30 spots in
overall rankings. Yeah, I don't think.
I don't think that the running back 12, has ever been a fifth
round pick in any fantasy football contest.
Ever. Ever.
Yeah, but I think like, so. My it's funny, 'cause I think
we're kind of more like way more on the same page with the
running back stuff than you would think from just looking at
the rankings, cause your point about you have to get the
receiver. So kind of what would happen
with if we were like were to do a draft is that we'd be looking
at a bunch of running. We would take our favorite
running back early probably or maybe a couple.
But then we'd be looking at a lot of running backs as we were
like, ah, we got to give receivers.
You know, it's kind of the way it would go.
But I guess my thing structurally, I'm actually kind
of more curious about the tight end point that you made because
I think Elite tight end is a pretty big edge this year just
because the prices are way down and I don't like the tight ends
late like I last year we had an awesome tight end class coming
in. We catch the Trey McBride
breakout, which you know, it's kind of a a little bit lucky
that we got that. Maybe we get something like that
again, I don't know. But I think that the landscape
feels pretty different generally than last year.
I generally also like elite tight end as a strategy.
So I'm kind of maybe biased towards it from the jump.
But if I go, let's say 4 wide receivers, you know, and then a
tight end in Round 5 and then let's say, you know, maybe I get
another wide receiver in round six.
So now I'm five wide receivers and a tight end through six
rounds I can get like David Montgomery as my running back
one. Yep, that seems like.
Pretty It's pretty nice. It's.
Pretty nice. Like I just did that today.
I grabbed Dave Montgomery in the seventh round.
I think it was a Lamar Andrews build.
So it was a little less strong at wide receiver.
Yeah, but it was 4. Wide receivers.
Lamar Andrews and David Montgomery.
Yeah, that's, I mean I'm having a tough time not doing that.
So I guess what I would be curious to get more of your
thoughts on like don't grab the elite tight end, grab the
running back and then how those builds look end up looking
different. I would I the kind of 1V1 is
like would you rather have Trey McBride or Isaiah Pacheco in
like that 4th, 5th kind of turn. And I I would much rather have
like the Pacheco and then go from there and the the point
about the late late round tight ends being worse, which they are
a little bit worse this year. It's also because the the to me
the running backs, late round running backs, like there's no
the running back class this year was really bad and there's a ton
of wide receivers like day one day two wide receivers in like
the 678 all the way to the 18th round where I'm kind of flipping
it where like yeah I wanted to be drafting the kind of more
veteran running backs because there's less rookie running
backs like later on. So it's kind of the same point
you're making with the tight ends where you want to draft
them early because we have a less influx of rookie tight ends
late. Well, I'm looking for the rookie
running backs like our guys this year are 6 rounders.
Like come on, you Did All and Tyrone.
Tracy But a lot of those guys, a lot of those rookie running
backs who have like shitty draft capital landed in like, deserts
of available still like. But they're running bad, but
still bad in general. It's still really bad in
general. We can kind of spin zone it.
Yeah. Tyron.
Tracy. Has well, but.
Then you saw the running back for the Giants.
I mean what about what about what about the spin zone, spin
zone Hayden that that the the Overton window for running backs
have shifted because teams are just so over it that like what
used like a, you know five years ago a Day 4 running back like
might not even make the team now.
Like a Round 5 running back like Bucky Irving is just like going
to be the second running back on the Buccaneers when the season
starts. Like they just they're like,
yeah, we'll just go fill this with.
We know. I mean they they tried out Chase
Edmonds. They try.
Everyone on their roster has gotten a shot and they were
like, Nope. So yeah, I I just.
Think we have. I mean, yeah, like also last
year we can say, you know, running backs are getting
devalued more and more and I think that's generally true.
Last year, we still had two running backs go on the what,
Top 12 of the NFL Draft and Gibbs and Dijon.
Robinson the Lions would like a word.
Yeah, and then one of them didn't start and then one of
those running backs and one of the top 12 didn't start for his
team. Yeah, I know.
It's just any, any time we say like, oh, the first round, real
life running back is dead. Teams prove us wrong like every
year. So, yeah, I'm just a little
hesitant to say that the Giraffe capital is like completely.
No, it was a bad running back. It was definitely a bad running
back. I think Jonathan Brooks was a
good running back prospect. You know, if he doesn't tear his
ACL, like, I mean he went pretty early in the second round with
the torn ACL, so, but. Then.
Even him. It's like now he's the Panthers
running back, right? Damn it.
Like and then like Trey. Trey Benson could have been
sick. Well, he at least had like some
level of competition with James Conner and then.
In third round, I didn't love him falling to the third.
No, I I think, I think Trey Benson, I think Trey Benson is
is going to be the answer to how did we let this happen in the
end, Like, James Conner is 29 years old.
The whole team just got younger. They're like it's going to be
much less the horizontal Raid. I think we have a very bad
picture of what the Cardinals offense looks like because the
last two years have been Josh Dobbs and then, you know, like
Cliff, like not even bothering to show up for work.
How crazy is it that in 2021 we were taking James Conner behind
Chase Edmonds? Yeah, we couldn't.
He's. Still there.
And he's still there. He was still there.
Yards after context for carry last.
Year he was so good last Year #1, so good.
I mean it's. Good.
He was the best in the staff that we don't care about.
Yeah, it's crazy. I guess we we we were out
because of injury proneness, right?
Another injury prone loss for us.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I wanted to talk here, so we'll
we'll get into a bunch of specific players that we've
we've talked about. I wanted to start the risers and
followers conversation just highlighting.
So this is the top 11 followers I think I have or sorry, top 11
risers I think I have on here. Eight of the top 11 are rookies.
So my question, I'll start with you on this Crane, is this
justified? Like were the initial ranks?
No, just so bad? Are we just getting, are we just
getting bored? Like, are we just?
Bored people are so bored. People are so fucking bored,
lad. Mcconkey.
Ladd Mcconkey is a fifth round pick now on 1/2 point PPR site.
Yes, we're bored, dude. We are bored.
I think it's maybe a little more justified than Davis does.
Like we we had to get some of these guys up substantially, you
know, and it doesn't happen overnight.
So there's still like some some cost, you know, adjustments
happening. Let me see where we have Ladd.
Yeah, we're, I think he's fine for Ladd.
You know, he's in the sixth round.
That seems fine to me. It's.
It's fine. Yeah, it's fine.
We're now behind a little bit on Keon Coleman, but just barely,
Benson Knot seems like. A little out of control, that's
that's the boredom. One.
Let's get real. That's ridiculous.
That one definitely seems a little wild. 20 months ago this
guy was listed as a This guy was listed as a full back on the K
State football. He won, He won the the low Man
award. He was the best full back in the
country. I can't.
Now that being said, if you take Dave Daniels, if you take Jane
Daniels, you know you're tapping that button on.
Oh yeah, yeah, yeah. The R-squared on taking Daniels,
then taking making Sannett and Luke McCaffrey Has to be like 7,
I mean. You you have to consider the
correlation like Sannat, I mean the best fullback in the
country. He's going to be blocking for
these Jaden Daniels runs that you need him out there.
It's the B Rob Stacks. Yeah, yeah.
I mean, I'm into that too, to be honest.
Yeah, so I did think this was interesting.
This is from John Boyd Beats. He did sort of a study about how
rookie AD PS, particularly at wide receiver seem to really
spike in, in June, like early June, which is I think basically
that's kind of where we are now because people are so excited to
draft right now. And these red XS, I did this
kind of quickly, but if you look at the wide receivers which are
on the right of this chart, I put red XS on guys where you
basically got the worst value on them in early June and they're
buying opportunities later. So this is.
This is. Also when frequency of sex per
baseball drafter is at A at. A.
All time low. Oh yeah.
Yeah. So I don't know.
Aiden you have any thoughts on this?
Yeah, I mean, we're kind of joking, but it's like right when
we the first puppy, it's just the same people throwing like
253050 drafts in and so like this.
Call is coming from inside the room, right?
But like this consensus, where like typically a consensus is
like each person's opinion equals one.
Now after a puppy draft, it's by draft, not by users.
Now all of a sudden that the person that's drafting all these
zero running back teams, now you just watch the 0 running or the
wide receiver prices go dramatically up right when we
launch the Puppies, same thing. That's going to be the same
cohort that's going to be drafting the rookies in general.
So yeah, it makes sense. Like right after the Puppy
launches, this will probably be the peak of both wide receiver
prices and rookie prices, and it'll slightly tail off.
But I mean, we're talking about like 5-6 points or draft spots I
think in general here. So I don't think it's going to
matter all that much. Yeah, I don't think it's going
to matter too much. I just think, yeah, I think the
psychology of it is right when the contest opens, there are
these crazy values and Pete overset, obviously he, he put
out some videos highlighting awesome values right away.
But then people have that mindset and I think it lasts
like a couple weeks too long where it's like, oh, I got to
get in the draft and like, get this rookie because he's never
going to be, you know, going this late.
And then that mindset just keeps going, keeps going to a point
where it's no longer. True people are literally
logging on to do drafts to draft Benson at right now.
They're like, they're like I'm entering a draft to make sure
that I come away with Jane Daniels and Benson at and Luke
McCaffrey here, and it's me. He did a whole video where he's
like, I'm going to do that. I'm going to get that stack.
And that was like 2 weeks ago. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
I mean, let's take the the Sanat one is that one feels like the
most fragile to me of these, like when?
Tracy and Vidal are pretty fragile too, but I agree with
you. I mean, fragile in the sense
that, like, when August drafters come in, they're going to be
like, Ben, what now? And Ben Ben Senate is There's a
chance that he ends up going, like, undrafted in August.
Drafts for sure. Like straight up.
He is not gonna be running with the first team, I can guarantee.
Early 21 personality will be hidden.
I mean how we might as well at this point call?
Zacker, Eckler and E Rob, it's going to be all free from the
back. I formation.
He's definitely on the fields. How mad, how mad are the 11th
round Ben Center drafters going to be when Zach Ertz has IS
leading the Washington Commanders and Targets through
three weeks in the season? Stop bag defending.
It's not. It's not a bag effect.
No. No.
For once in my life, I you get to be the side of common sense
in a rookie versus old. I've never in my life been on
the common sense side, no. You're back defending Ertz, not
for. The first time ever.
For the first time ever, I needed it.
The chat is asking, No, I'm I'm not drafting Ertz right now.
I've moved on to Dawson Knox as my.
Oh yeah, I take Knox. That's.
That's as as my cope in round 18.
What? Are you saying what we can't
take Josh Allen's guy who might catch a touchdown on the right
week? Dude.
Yeah, seems fine. That guy.
Sold the Parkinson on That's right.
Yeah, Level little. 18th round, Colby Parkinson.
Yeah, that's Will this Lee dog. Will.
Will this Lee. Oh man.
I saw you wrote him up so you think Parkinson cause
Parkinson's got late like hate B will be back at the end of the
season right. So you think he he's got to take
that job? I don't know.
Yeah, I think he's, yeah, I think he's like in.
January, yeah, that's not great. Also, he's never been good.
Like, he's got, he's been good for three weeks at a time.
I don't know Colby Parkinson's. Like, he's massive.
And like the the underlying numbers aren't terrible, yeah.
What was Oliver? You know, like they they he they
had Everett and Higbee and they they, like told Everett to hit
the road and they gave Higbee an extension.
So I I don't know. It makes me 'cause.
I got a lot of money though. I think there's like what, $15
million or something like that? I forgot the exact number. 15
1/2 guaranteed. Yeah, like.
That's a lot. I like at that point.
It's not even Josh Oliver. Money, dude.
Ross Oliver's a good Ben Sonata. Not even like that's just a.
That's just a good point. That was a tremor through the
universe right there, though. Because Joshua was kind of an
interesting prospect. For he was.
He was, yeah. It's the whole the whole game.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I kind of like Sonata, but it is
getting a little wild. We gotta stop talking about H
backs. We're gonna lose all we're not
let's. Move.
No, one is not one. Let's move on to Mike Evans.
I thought this was an interesting ADP rise because it
really bucks the rookie trend he's he's in here moving up two
spots. I think this is driven by ETR as
you. Know what's drawing this?
Yeah. Don't act like you don't know
you guys have them at like 17. This is.
Come on. Look, I, I I'm not putting
inputs in there at ETR. I'm, you know, I'm not involved,
so don't blame me. But yeah, this is also.
It's also structural, too, because it's a natural push back
to why I don't want to fucking draft Devon a chain.
I don't want to draft Kyron. Maybe I don't like Devonte.
Maybe I don't like IU, maybe I don't like Debo.
Like, it's just a it's a it's a ranking that made that people
feel comfortable sliding into that.
It just feels nice and cozy, like putting on a Snuggie, like,
all right, I'll just take Mike Evans ahead of Devon, HP.
Yeah. 1000 yards. I'll just grab 1000 yards.
I know I'm. Just like 1000 yards, yeah.
Yeah, that sounds good. I think too, like I have a bit
of a Mike Evans rant. Like I think touchdowns just
matter way more than half PPR than people give the credit for.
And I get they're unpredictable, but with Mike Evans, they're.
Really not on Mike Evans. Yeah, 13 plus touchdowns and
three of his four last NFL seasons. 12 plus touchdowns in
five of his ten NFL seasons. If you compare that to guys
going near him in ADP Chris Olave in his two NFL seasons.
Four and five touchdowns. Jalen Waddle in his three NFL
seasons, 6-8 and four. Hey, hold on, hold on about.
Jalen Waddle, Mike Evans is, I'm just saying he he's 6 foot 5.
Chris Olave, Jalen Waddle. These other guys going near him,
they're like 5 foot, 10/5 foot 11.
Like you can say touchdowns are unpredictable and I'm gonna
chase like the younger guys with theoretical upside.
But you can draft Mike Evans and just, I don't know, you can bank
12 plus touchdowns like 90% of the time.
That's. Crazy.
You can't. No, you can't.
You can't bank 12 plus touchdowns.
Come on, he's. No, I'm just saying literally,
it's historical. Hit rates 13, plus touchdowns
75% of the time the last Four Seasons.
Yeah, yeah, OK. But that's because you started
it after he went 5-8 and eight. So if you just.
Zoom out and it's got the Baker quarterback upgrade over Tom.
Yeah, Baker. QB upgrade.
Come on. I mean, so, so you're buying.
That you just can't tell me. That you can't tell me that a
guy who's he had can't tell me a guy who's 6 foot 5 doesn't just,
like, inherently score more touchdowns than a guy who's 511.
He had. 6. Touchdowns 2 years ago.
How tall is Tyreek Hill? Yeah.
OK, well. This is turning into the dumbest
group debate ever. He had six touchdowns 2 years
ago and he went in the seventh round.
Then he had 13 touchdowns and now he's going in the second
round. Like, which are you?
Which is the thing that's affecting the ADP because I
think we're chasing the touchdown.
The touchdowns aren't like something no one's thought of.
He just scored 13 touchdowns and it boosted his ADP by 5 rounds.
That's why he's. Doing here.
You said that no one's deserving of the second round pick, and I
think that's true. Every single person we put up
there, we're going to say he shouldn't be there.
Like they either haven't done it before or they're a regression
candidate should come back down. Unless we want to treat Derrick
Henry in those types as legit second rounders, but we don't
want to do that. So I think it's just like, OK,
Brandon Nyuk, Marvin Harrison's a a first round pick.
OK, but Brandon Nyuk is actually the worst second round pick
though. Can we be honest about this?
So you love Debo and you don't like Ayuk?
Why? No, he's actually fine.
It's just all it's all it's all a brand thing now.
I just I like. The thing is is that I.
Prefer because you love Debo. I prefer Adams and Debo like
pretty significantly in this format to IUK, so it just means
I'll never take him because because no other drafter drafts
that way at people are actually more likely to take IUK ahead of
Marvin Harrison Junior than take Adams ahead of IUK.
So it just it just means I won't get him, which is fine.
I think the the issue you have with IU because he will never
have the highest single game ceiling on his team.
McCaffrey and Debo have much higher single game ceilings.
So to me that just feels like if the 49ers kind of goes according
to plan, you know, none of these guys get traded.
No one misses any significant time with injury.
Probably all of them will be pretty good advance rate guys
because Purdy is pretty cheap and they're all pretty good and
the offense is so concentrated. So you just show up to week 17
with like the third highest ceiling projection of the guys.
And I you know not to say in any given game he can't be the
highest scoring player, but I still prefer Debo.
By quite a bit. Because he's got the contingent,
because you're saying basically if CMC, even if CMC were to go
down now, we're probably more excited about Debo.
Oh, if CMC goes down like let's say CMC tears his need tomorrow,
where does deep I mean Debo immediately leap Prague's iuke,
I would assume in in ADP I. Think you're right?
Yeah. I think Iuke is like absolutely
ready to completely take off one of these years.
And well, maybe I maybe I'll need to.
Maybe I'll need to readjust. I just like based on the
evidence that I have when these guys are on the field together,
Debo gets the ball more and he scores more points.
But you know what Debo's about to IS he turned.
He turns 29 this year. So.
That's like a long 29 years. Old It's a long 29.
So that's the other thing is Debo could, this could like,
Debo could, his black marble season could be this year it
could be, it could be Week 4. Debo kind of like rolls over on
his ankle and it, you know, it's over, right?
And there's also the there's like I'll I'll put like a ten,
1520% chance somewhere in there that Debo gets traded before the
season. And at that point I would want
IU and like the combat. Demo Debo on a non Shanahan
team. I don't.
I don't have any interest with Debo on the Carolina Panthers.
I'll say he. Would go take the Malachi Corley
job with The Jets and he'll be in the seventh round.
Oh God, that's disgusting. As so, I'm just looking at Brand
IU's Game log. Has he ever had a 30 point game
in PPR? No.
Maybe in maybe in his rookie season.
It is kind of crazy. He has on DraftKings with the
bonus, but he's never had it in. He's never had it in PPR.
Yeah, 'cause last year. 'S ceiling is just so much
better historically, if you believe that's predictive.
Right. And I mean it makes.
Sense you are the. Originator of that point that
sometimes you could just look at a guy's game logs and be like,
well, he has like literally done this before.
Yeah, I mean that's. Originator but.
I'm the originator. I'm the first guy to look at box
scores of. That.
Yeah. I'm ready for the flip inning.
This is the year. The IU flip inning has been like
this close to happen every single year and I feel like this
just this would make sense and I think he's falling off too like
he's been in the mix and like there's there's odd that either
one of those guys are at the age Cliff.
Same thing with CMC. And then I like at that point
all of a sudden IU can take another lead and like it's go
time. Isn't isn't the someone who
understands? You though go.
Ahead, OK. I was going to say as someone
who understands contracts better than we do, is there any like
contract related reason that Debo isn't going to be traded
until like after June 1st or something like that?
Because I heard that floated, but I did not really understand
why that would be a they're. Shopping him on draft night.
Yeah. So on draft night is going to be
hard because you have to pass a physical.
And he wasn't like it's too hard to do that during the draft
night. The reason why they would want
to do is because they would save $23 million next year and that's
how much over the cap they are, like exactly $23 million.
So when they have to pay for Ayuk and all these guys Purdy,
they're going to have to get rid of some some contract and the
most obvious one would be Debo Samuel.
Now the 49ers most likely are going to say, well we want to
try to win the Super Bowl this year and we'll try to trade Debo
next year. But if they get the right, so
there's. There's been some good reporting
on that from guys around the team which is that Debo is the
the the chess piece. Debo is the one that makes the
defensive coordinators be like well shit we don't really know
what to do. And I the chats going to start
doing the man versus zone thing to which I will say I have
literally no interest in like literally less than 0 interest
in but it totally makes sense. Like I you you can just like
he'll win it as the flanker he'll win is like he's a great
NFL wide receiver but you are he is a less versatile less like
dynamic after the catch player than Debo.
You you can structure an entire game plan around like 8 Debo
Samuel plays you know to to break out at any given time.
So it would make sense why Shanahan would not want to trade
him. I saw it the other way though,
because IU is the only one that wins down field and it's beyond
coverage and you can replace the Debo stuff with more George
Kittle, more CMC, more. Michael Hartman.
Could do some of the the. Ricky Pierce saw it.
Some interesting rushing stuff in college too, so maybe that's
their view on the long term. Debo replacement potentially.
Yeah, if they can't throw the ball down field, I think all the
Mickey Mouse stuff becomes a lot less appealing.
So I would guess that they feel really confident that they have
to pay Iuke moving forward. He's definitely, I know.
Like, Iuke did really well in reception perception in 2022.
And then I assume he did well this past year.
We don't have it yet, but he was wide receiver, 8IN open score
last year. So like, I think the point about
him being able to come, like if I'm Shanahan, I'm like, this guy
wins without me. That's cool, you do that and
then I'll figure out everybody else.
But it is interesting that he hasn't like Ayuk feels like he
could handle so much more, like they could just run the offense
through it. But they don't.
They don't tend to do. That they don't really do that.
Yeah, I don't understand why not.
But like the Tampa Bay game, he went nuts. 156 yards and a
touchdown, but he only had six targets.
I mean this like this is like George George Kittle.
George Kittle couldn't handle the Kelsey Esque role for years
and they just had really no interest in doing that.
Right. I think my point is like he's
already established he's a fourth round pick with a bunch
of target competition without these huge spike weeks.
And that if I if I have to draft him in the second round this
year and he turns out to be 1/4 rounder, I think that's kind of
how most of the second rounders are going to be.
But if all of a sudden there's less target competition, whether
it's a trade or the other older guys get injured, now I have a
chance where I can actually see him go up into like the first
round because like all the other numbers to me are right there.
He he seems very, very capable of handling like a 30% target
share. I kind of doubt it ever happens
because of the offense he's in. But like this is you're buying
low from a talent perspective. I agree with that.
Let's. Move on to a guy we were
discussing pre show. This is the Venn diagram of
Hayden Winks and Davis Maddock takes as I have.
Pacheco is right in the middle there.
He's up four spots, 7% in ADP. Start with Ukraine 'cause I
think I might be wrong. I think maybe you're a little
bit lower on Pacheco than the market, or at least not super
excited about him. What are your thoughts on this
movement upwards for Pacheco? Yeah, I'm, I'm not super excited
about Pacheco, but I generally get it.
I mean, he was good last year. He showed a ceiling in a single
week. They, the Chiefs were more
willing to lean on him than they, you know, really they
usually are with the running back.
There's no competition, competition CEH, like that's
just ideal. So I do understand that.
Daniel Razz this morning actually was like, I think he's
going to end up being in the Top 40 pretty soon.
So we're we moved him up a little bit.
The other thing I would say about Pacheco is like I never
get him falling. Like I can get mixing sometimes
at crazy prices. It never happens with Pacheco.
So as I don't love Pacheco, he's not a priority for me.
But I do think if you want to make sure you have some and
you're just going to have him a little bit more top of mind,
that feels prudent because I think he probably does continue
to move up a little bit. So you're you're going to want
to take him at or a little ahead of ADP if you're if you're
trying to get some exposure right now?
Hayden, I know you're prioritizing.
I think he was on your list of running backs to draft now.
Could you give a little more of like the ceiling bulk case for
Pacheco? So from week 12 on through the
playoffs, he averaged 17.6 half PBR points on 18 Expected
Points, which both would have been the RB3 if you would
extrapolate that the entire season.
Obviously a little bit of a smaller sample, but that was
like 10 games with Pacheco and that would make.
Sense that's when Mccannon was was out.
Yeah, Mccannon was out and then Pacheco day three guy and he's
like had to earn the trust of the coaching staff.
He had some fumble issues, he had some vision issues and now
he's getting better and that would make more.
Sense his legs were a little sore from stomping.
Yeah, exactly. Stomping.
That big Stompers. So yeah, I think I've seen that,
like the role and the points last year were really good and I
think that we look at like the regular season points.
We don't factor in like the NFL playoffs, like he was balling in
the playoffs. And I think like that is when
the team really cares about all that.
So I think there's a little bit of a discount on like not
looking at the playoff box scores.
And then the other note with him is I was looking like who
finishes like top three overall took a version of the legendary
upside and not even about the players.
It's like what teams they're on and over like the last decade,
the teams have finished or the run backs have finished either
first, second or third on the season.
They played on a team that had a above 500 winning percentage 80%
of the time and 50% of those top three running backs played on a
team that won 67% of their games, which is like top five.
So like there really is like a more or less short list of guys
that can do that. I think Breece Hall could be a
little bit of an exception this year.
Maybe Bijan, who might not be that on that good of teams, but
there's only so many teams that project for 11-12 wins and
Pacheco is one of them and he goes fairly late.
Zach Moss would be another player.
That's their running back that's really low.
But. That was a good one.
Snuck that in there. I did also want to.
So I don't know, I I think Pacheco too like and I've
hidden, I've even heard you and Josh talk about this like in
years past. You're not that excited about
Isaiah. Pacheco like the talent at
running back necessarily. You go into his advanced stuff
last year and I just put Taylor there as as an example that of
you know, a running back that everyone considers to be some
elite talent. I'm not saying Pacheco is better
than Jonathan Taylor, but if you look at the stats from last
year, he basically was. But I am saying that, but I'm
actually. I'm saying.
That so I picked Taylor's worst year and Pacheco's the last year
and he's better than him but no. But he's top ten, top 15 and
seriously like and the competition is literally a rugby
player. CEH and like well, Michael P
Rein like let's get real there. There's not really like the risk
of him. Yeah the risk of him losing his
workload isn't like in the true dead zone risk where like he
could lose his job or be forced into like a 5050 committee.
It could be the same thing as last year where they find
someone to take the McKinnon role and you just get Pacheco in
that like 60% role again fine. That's that's not great.
That's not a huge win there, but I do think there is some like
workhorse, esque potential for Pacheco.
Just cause like seriously who who else are they going to play?
Who else are they going to trust on pass downs for Patrick
Mahomes? Like there's just there's nobody
there. One one reason I'm having
trouble getting Pacheco and I think the market's just going to
force my hand on this and it'll actually, I'll end up when he
moves up, I'll actually getting more, I'll end up getting more
of him. But I've been taking James Cook
ahead of Pacheco, and that's one where you make the arguments
about the offense powering these guys.
I mean, I get the Bills offense that seems pretty great.
They threw to the running back way more at the end of the
season, so I get that kind of that kind of boost to it.
I also had, I mean, James Cook went nuts in a couple games late
in the season against Dallas, he had 25 carries, 179 yards, a
touchdown, 42 more receiving yards and another touchdown or
two receptions. The week before, he had 83
receiving yards and a touchdown, 58 yards on 10 carries.
Didn't get the the workhorse uses.
But in Week 16, he had another 20 carries, 70 yards.
He he closes with 16 carries, 13 carries, 18 carries, 18 carries.
He now has Ray Davis, who's actually older than CEH.
I just made that up. But you really you.
Didn't even say that. I believe that you might be.
Right, I might. Actually be right.
Flip the coins. You're you're not looking at
like a ton of competition. Now you do have it the the
obvious push back is goal line stuff.
Does Cook get used to the goal line?
I don't know does Pacheco get used to the goal line 100%
definitely. So that's pretty great.
But like, you have to me, I'm like this dude, I think Cook is
better. Like I think Cook is a better
running back and what if he gets the goal line usage?
I have to take a little bit of leap of faith with that.
But I feel like if he does, like, good luck without him,
like he's gonna smash. Yeah, Crane, I've.
I've got some new advanced stat for you.
I don't know if you've heard of it.
It's called touchdowns. James Cook has two rushing
touchdowns each of the last two years.
So you might you might want to. Yeah, I mean, it's a, it's an
Ecoler thing, right? It's like, do they give him it?
It is. Do they give him the work?
Because like, if they give him the work and you didn't think
James Cook in the fifth round, like you're you're gonna be
hurting. You're gonna be, yeah.
That's dog levels. Crane, I I dog, dog, dog per
pound and dog per year. Ray Ray Davis is is a dog.
I I I think I think I think he's gonna be the goal.
I back. For yeah.
And he and he ages in dog years, yeah.
Well done. I yeah, James Cook, three months
older than Ray Davis. That to me, I I mean, you guys
can correct me or or or say if you think I'm wrong.
To me, I sort of felt like the team that takes Ray Davis
totally understands what they're buying, which is about 20-6
months of a serviceable running back and they plan to put him.
I I don't think there's any seasoning for Ray Davis.
I think it was whichever team takes him, he's like got to be
ready to go right away. There's just no point in taking
him and being like he's fine. He's ready made.
You take the plastic off and you put Ray Davis on the lineup.
So the the James Cook fall to me I I preferred Pacheco over him
anyway. So I I just because they're
you're on the clock and they're both there a good bit of the
time. So I wasn't taking him to begin
with and now with Ray Davis being, I think, legit
competition for the most important touches.
I mean, touchdowns on underdog are that's what's going to swing
all the money and how does James Cook get those touchdowns?
To make Sam's point. But to make Sam's point, Josh
Allen is literally bigger than Mike Evans.
So when they get down to the goal, you know who's the actual
goal line back here? Well, true, yeah.
Also, he's got lots of pressure. Also like the The Eckler thing,
I do think is a little bit different 'cause he had a
legitimate blocker in Melvin Gordon for most of his career
who was a a good running back. I think with James Cook they're
trotting out 35. Jonas.
Murray they're trotting out Todd like they're they're just not
showing any faith in it. So I do agree with Ukraine, like
we did see it with Eckler and maybe, there's, I don't know,
1020% chance Cook gets this goal line role.
If he does, that's awesome. He's a smash.
But I just think it's like a big, big, big if that they're
going. To give him here I've got to I I
I meant to say this earlier when we were talking about Pacheco
but I'll I'll do let's do a blind resume here for for
Pacheco and another formerly fantasy great Chiefs running
back. This was the the Chiefs running
back in 2018. Eleven games, 181 rushing
attempts, 800 yards, 7 touchdowns with 26 receptions.
Weirdly 7 receiving touchdowns. Isaiah Pacheco in 13 in 14 games
last season. 205 rushes, 935 yards, 7 touchdowns, 44
receptions, only two touchdowns. So basically the same stat line
with the touchdowns swapped. That 2018 Chiefs running back
was Cream Hunt who was a first round pick and now the market is
saying no thank you Isaiah Pacheco.
I was waiting. Pretty interesting.
Darrell Williams or yeah, the other chief Kareem, I was.
Waiting for like Kyle Kyle Davis or something.
Well, Kareem it, it would have been, it would have been more
games. But then Kareem Hunt got cut
from the team for and then and then by the way Daryl Williams
just continue to do the exact same thing with that.
No disruption. Like, literally no disruption to
what the Chiefs were doing in anyway, so.
So one thing I'll just note on James Cook in terms of the kind
of his ability at the goal line stuff, his, his I wrote about
this last year with success rate actually having a little bit of
correlation to goal line opportunity.
The following year, you could potentially look at James Cook
and be like, oh, he's basically like a DeAndre Swift, kind of
like better than that, he's better than that.
He had a 43% success rate last year, which was just behind
James Connor and Deontay Foreman, ahead of Kyron
Williams. Yeah, he was like top ten in the
NFL and success rate, right? Yeah, it was HM White,
McCaffrey, Hubbard, Montgomery, Connor Foreman, James Cook, then
Kyron, then Naji, then Khalil Herbert, then Zach Moss.
So and then Zeke, actually. So it's like these dudes are
like guys who hit the right hole pretty well.
If Cook's doing that, I think he's got a shot to get some of
that work over a rookie day three guy.
Like, I think, I don't think it's as big an if as you're
painting it as. And the, you know, I I think
Hayden's point about Josh Allen being there is, is more
concerning. And you probably need to.
I mean, everyone else has already been doing this, but you
probably, Pat needs to start taking Pacheco ahead of Cook,
'cause I think I think that makes sense.
You're getting you want to have access to some of these, some of
these guys. But I if Cook's going to fall to
the fifth, like, I really think that's a pretty big opportunity
to get an explosive, versatile running back on a on an elite
offense. Just looking.
Josh Allen was 7th and inside the five yard line carries last
year. So that I think that's like the
probably the one thing that Austin Eckler didn't have to
worry about is his quarterback getting involved down there.
But I James Cody I think is still a fantastic pick.
Like he didn't have to score the touchdowns to be worth that
price tag. Like, yeah.
And I agree with Ukraine. He's he's just like a great
player. I think he's shown that in two
years. So if you just want to bet on
the talent and sometimes the situation, the role can kind of
fall into place. So I think that's a good point.
Let's move on to talking about Sam Laporta.
We kind of tease the elite tight.
End I might as well be fucking invisible when I'm drafting on.
Yeah, what's the point? Literally, what is the point?
I don't get it at all. He didn't separate at all.
He was like, on a technicality, the tight end one last year.
Literally a technicality. But I don't know, man, you're
paying. Something to the judges.
Yeah. I think it literally was like
him at 11.1 half PPR points per game and then like 10 guys from
like 10 to 11.1. Or, you know, I'm exaggerating,
but it's something like that. I don't know, Crane.
I think you're probably most interested in taking him.
So I'll. I'll give to you what's like.
What could we all be missing? What's the reason why?
LaPorte is a good pick here if you were to paint that case.
He's not that great of a pick. He's the number 2.
Option one. Yeah, he's, he's.
He's not. I don't think he's a horrendous
pick because you're getting like.
Whatever. Yeah, you're getting a guy who
was. All right, here's the bull case.
You're getting a dude who was just but a tight end one on a
technicality, but the tight end one.
As a rookie when we just heard, you know, rookie tight ends
can't produce. He comes in and immediately is
the tight end one in fantasy and now you're getting him in the
third round. That seems pretty good.
The problem is that all the other tight ends are going
behind him and I think probably have stronger cases to to be the
tight end one this year. So it's I don't, I don't want to
break the SEAL. Like I like the elite, elite
tight ends a lot this year. But in part it's because like
I'm getting. I'm getting him.
After Sam LaPorte, the number 2 on the Lions, I can get the the
number one on the Chiefs still in Travis Kelsey.
I can get potentially the number one on the Ravens.
I can get the, you know, if I won a #2, why don't I take Trey
McBride in the in the 4th or 5th.
Dalton Kincaid might be the number one on the bills.
You know probably, probably not. But like at the worst case I'm
getting the number 2 on the Bills and you have the number 2
on the Lions. So I, you know, I like LaPorte.
I think he's very talented. But it does feel a little
expensive compared to the rest of the position.
OK. Do you guys know how many just
raw half PPR points Sam LaPorte scored to be the tight end one
last year? Just like don't look, just
guess, just say a number. Like 100 game or?
Total cumulative. 160, I'm going to 192.
I'll go 180. 196 point. Wow, I hate it.
That. Is like sort of you put that in
context. That was like as many points as
Jerome Ford scored. Last year, the projections don't
make sense. It's it's just doesn't.
It's just immaterial what what it is, is.
He could finish tight end one. He could duplicate last year's
performance and just be completely immaterial, you know,
Just it just won't matter, you know?
The other thing is he scored 10 touchdowns.
His like, expected points. Obviously he's good.
The Lions are good. All that.
He scored four more points and like his usage would indicate #1
and over expected touchdowns at tight end and he did that.
He barely squeaked by as the tight end one.
So yeah, I don't know, I think it was, Gretch said.
Like we got a draft like Boomers a little bit more this year and
like sit there, look at the projections and then kind of
figure out how we should be drafting.
And I think that Sam Laporta is going to be one of the guys when
once everyone's posted their projections, it's like wait a
minute, why is why is he 1/3 rounder?
Dude, that's a great call. Actually, it's probably the
worst time to draft Sam Laporta where like, these aren't as
projection driven as they're going to be.
And like, Kelsey's going to flip Laporta once.
Projections are driving this stuff more right?
And he she should. I mean, unless you're completely
ignoring the playoff run last year and saying it didn't
happen. Kelsey's ceiling versus Laporta.
The team, the team thought Kelsey might be done.
They thought they might have. They thought he, he literally
ended his season in practice before the Lions gave.
They were they like, you get like, do people remember that?
Like, he played with this crazy ankle injury all year there.
There's like a very real reason why why he had a a bad year.
I don't think people will remember that, actually, and
that. I don't think.
They do. He didn't play Week 1.
And people, again, people don't count the playoff stats, which
is always so dumb. I don't get that.
But look at Kelsey in the playoffs like he wasn't.
Just look at. Kelsey in the playoffs like but
do look at Kelsey in the playoffs but like he they the
team that just won the Super Bowl was like how do how do we
get here And it was the answer was Travis Kelsey.
Like, this dude is not dumb. Yeah.
Yeah, I I we have a season long projections in pick em on our
dog and I was looking at Kelsey's.
There's wide receivers who are going ahead of him like Zay
Flowers who have a lower straight up season long
projections than Kelsey does as the tight end.
Like I don't know it just seems bad like he's still projected
for over 1000 yards and there's wide receivers projected from
the eight hundreds. Are you?
Recommending an elite tight end. I'll take.
I don't mind Kelsey in the fourth, fifth round standing
with. Marc Andrews 5th, come on right.
Now he's in the what 4th? Round in the fifth round, we're
taking Jaden Reed ahead of him. Like what?
Exactly. I don't want Jaden Reed either.
You mean Marc? Andrews.
That's the point of like Andrews, too, of of the point of
drafting like a boomer this year.
Like with tight ends, Like I'm drafting the guys where I've
seen them be elite for years. Like give me Marc Andrews, give
me Kelsey. Give me George Kittle.
I'm I'm OK with trade McBride too.
But like, man, Dalton Kincaid. Kyle Pitts.
Sam Laporta. First, the guys we've just seen
do it over and over and over again.
Like, for me, that's how I'm approaching it.
Maybe it's maybe it's drafting like a boomer, I don't know.
But I just see so many paths of Andrews and Kelsey being the
elite top passing option on their own teams compared to
those other guys, so. Yeah, no, I I completely agree
and I think tight end is is the position where drafting like a
Boomer's generally been like the correct way to go.
Like the the tight end breakouts often burn us in a pretty big
way. I just said I kind of like
Kincaid, but I mean, Kincaid might suck.
He had kind of normal tight end efficiency.
He might suck as far as the number one wide receiver on a
team with tight end eligibility. I mean, by that standards he had
kind of normal ish tight end efficiency last year.
He's going to be asked to step up with no bigger role.
I think it gives him a really high ceiling, but he might not
be that good, you know, and we we've obviously chased Kyle
Pitts for years and years, no ones ever interested in George
Kittle. And then he he puts up a few big
Spike weeks every year. Can't wait to see how Pitts
doesn't get there this year. I mean, it's just like,
incredible. Like, definitely like is.
Is Pitts going to get hurt? Is it going to be 1100 yards
with no touchdowns? Is it going to be Rondale Moore
finally becoming everything we've been?
Will it be like they trade for a wide receiver 140 Darnell Mooney
target like it's just you know he's it's final destination
style like whatever needs to happen for him to not get there.
But it is also clearly lining up for him that I I just, I can't
wait. This is why we play the game.
It's why we play the game. How will we get rugged on Kyle
Pitts this year? It's it's amazing.
The guy I hope we don't get rugged on is Jonathan Brooks
because I've been drafting a ton of him.
He's up five spots to pick 92. Hayden, where are you at on
Brooks at this price? Yeah, I think this is another
good pick here. I draft him as like my running
back four. Sometimes we're running back
three. I think that he's going to be a
little bit capped because the Panthers are so awful.
But I think like, he has like pretty good odds of beating this
ADP by like a couple rounds. I think like by the end of the
season they'll probably be like running back 18 in rankings or
something like that, which is rock solid.
And if he's really, really good, you have the chance of him
completely breaking out. At least the Panthers addressed
their offensive line this offseason.
But without the ACL, I thought Brooks was very clearly the
best. Running back in the class, Me
too. Very clearly and and like in
ways that like translate very obviously to fantasy points like
size and catching passes. So I think the ACL stuff
happened early in the year is like a clean tear, if you will
that I think he'll be out there in the mix starting from week
one. But it's just the Panthers,
like, don't have a lot of faith over there.
I think they have a lot of faith in running the ball, though.
The Canalis won't stop talking about he wants to run the ball.
Drafts of running back in the second rounds.
I think if you're trying, if you're coming into that
situation, you're like, how am I going to show progress?
It's run the ball a lot. You got to run the ball, use
Bryce Young on play action stuff, but you can't.
I don't think you want to feature Bryce Young right now.
Right. But I think that goes to the
point where it's like he's got good odds of beating this ADP
because he's going to get a bunch of carries and stuff.
But if the offense is so run first, then you're like, OK,
there goes the ceiling, like they're just trying to win six
games and trying to put up 20 points each week With a run
heavy offense, we're like, OK, now there's less of a ceiling
because they they're trying to run the ball so often.
So yeah, I think he's fine. Like, I think he's like he makes
sense in some builds like depending on who the running
backs you have around him and at least for like this archetype on
a bad team, he's at least is a rookie.
So there is like the anything could happen with him.
Yeah, and I do think like the Canalis factor too.
It obviously goes into how much you weigh coaching in projecting
performance. But it's been two straight years
where Dave Canalis has been on a coaching staff.
But going into the season, you're like, this is the worst
quarterback in the NFL. They're going to be a disaster.
And he's made them like league average, maybe even top twelve
options. You know it was Geno Smith in
2022 when he was the quarterbacks coach, I believe in
Seattle. It was Baker last year.
No one was touching Baker. Everyone thought that was going
to be a disaster. You know, he led the Bucks to
having tons of players that had really high fantasy relevance
last year. So I don't know, like I guess
with Bryce Young, I'm, I'm seeing the upside maybe a little
bit more than you guys are. Like we we've seen this with top
quarterbacks where they've looked so bad their rookie year.
Trevor Lawrence is maybe one example.
You know, Justin Fields obviously never became good but
got much better than he was as a rookie.
So I can see Carolina being, you know, the 20th best offense in
the league, something like that. And maybe that's enough for
Brooks to to have some upside even.
Most Most Improved Player of the Year for Bryce Young, if they
get to 20th on offense, for sure.
But I mean, to your point, Sam, like Baker Mayfield was worse in
this Panthers offense, you know, two years ago.
And then he gets Canalis and he, he takes a big step forward.
So yeah, I mean, maybe I'm underselling kind of what
Canalis can do a little bit just in, in terms of making this
Panthers offense not terrible. And then also maybe they throw
to Brooks. You know, they just threw to
Rashad White a lot. Brooks isn't the receiving
prospect that White was, but he's pretty versatile.
I think he can get used a fair amount in the receiving game.
Brooks is kind of like, maybe it's like sort of like what we
like wanted DeAndre Swift to be is his upside is, is the kind of
the way I see it. But I do wonder, all that said,
is this the wrong time to be drafting a bunch of Brooks?
Because I thought after the draft, yes, he he was drafted in
the second round, but the Panthers stink.
Like I thought that might drop him a little bit.
He's been a riser, but so many of these rookies have been a
riser. When, when August drafters come
in, are they going to go, This is cheap for a running back or
are they going to go Panthers? Panthers.
Gross. No thanks.
You think he goes up? Brooks Brooks goes up.
You know who comes down? Jalen Warren.
Jalen Warren Will Warren will
come down for. Sure, Jalen Warren will come
down. Chase Brown will.
Get The problem with waiting to draft Jalen Warren is that he's
going to break the season. So you you want you still want
some now? Sure, yeah.
I'm not the AFC North running back that's going to break the
season. But the issue is, is Chase Brown
is going to catch a screen pass in the preseason.
You know Gallup 47 yards untouched.
You might be Amir Abdullah. Yeah, exactly.
No, literally. We watched the Amir Abdullah
clip on the show. We did, yeah.
It was good. It was so.
Well, here's the thing about Brooks in where he wanted to do
truly the ADP chasing. He's gonna start training camp
on the PUP. We know he's going to start on
the pup and his price is going to fall that day.
At the very least, it means nothing.
I'm not saying we need to draft it, but he's going to start
training him with the pup and be with the pup, Oh no.
And then you're going to get, you're going to get him in the
hundreds for at least a day. I'm almost wondering though that
that's the assumption and that if we get a little bit of good
news on him, like what if he doesn't start on the PUP list I?
Mean it won't matter what's depending that won't.
Matter the seventh round. That won't matter.
But but the publicist will move him down.
You think so? I think everyone's assuming
assuming that he's. Like, gonna every time I think
this. Like trying to predict ADP,
though like every time I think something's baked in, it never
is. It's never baked in.
Kirk Cousins might go to the Falcons.
That seems like at least a 50% chance.
Dustin Fields might get traded for a conditional 4th round pick
goes from quarterback 8th to quarterback 45.
It's never even. Yeah, Drake London jumped from
the 4th to the to the early 2nd on the cousin.
None of it was baked in, just not like a 0%.
It was crazy to me. So anyway, I don't.
I think, yeah. I think it'll move either, it'll
move either way. And just on the injury timeline
stuff, I think Brooks had a surgery December 5th, so a nine
month timeline exactly 9 months that would mean return to action
September 5th, that's like week one.
I think it could go, it could go either way.
Whether he's like on the training camp pop or not, I
think I don't know the the news is is been generally positive
around that. So we'll see.
Let's let's move on. I don't think he starts the
season on pop. So any, like, pup stuff, we Oh
yeah, yeah, yeah, we attack that, we attack it, but yeah.
Especially hidden. close your close your ears for a second.
Especially on DraftKings where he's gonna get that Q tag.
Oh boy, he's gonna drop. He's gonna drop a bunch on
DraftKings, yeah. I think Davis is gone for his
his TV. No, he's gonna, he's gonna come
back and then no, he's. Gonna come back?
Not yet. Yeah, he's.
Gonna put on now, can we get the Q tag on underdog?
Why? Why can we not just or or even
better? Can we get can we get
misinformation on your site please?
Can we get Rashi rice just can we display it with a red O?
Or maybe just put Rashi Rice's name in red?
No. Like a What about like a jail?
A jail cell around it. Can we do this emoji?
Emoji tags would be glorious. Could we?
Please, I just whatever. How can I use that platform to
get Ashy right to be like a round 12 pick so that it doesn't
even matter to my bottom line if he doesn't play this year?
All you just need is it's a rain to drop him to 180 in his
rankings and then see what happens.
No, sadly, I I mean, I think Cray has sway, but he doesn't
have Leone sway. What we need is.
I need. Him on the pod?
Yeah, I don't. We need we need Leone to nuke
him from orbit. We need him to rank him behind
Jonathan Mingo. I I think that's.
I think that's. Wow, Davis, if if after the
season I sat you down and was like, hey, listen, Rashi Rice is
going to have an ADP after Jonathan Mingo, I I would have
loved it. What's?
What's he going to do? Well, I I did not.
I guess maybe I wiped it. We can do rushy corner before I
leave. I I did not remember that this
scouting the the character stuff.
I I don't remember that at all because people would have loved
to have made the Chiefs jokes. Right.
Because the Chiefs just they only had draft assholes
apparently. I I really don't remember any of
this. Yeah.
The the I. Don't think these were Yeah.
So I'll get to what Davis was talking about.
I don't, Davis. I don't.
I don't think you're wrong for not remembering it because I
don't think these are public. But this is from an athletic
article. There was an alleged shooting
incident over a girl that this basketball player at SMU and
Rashid Rice for both allegedly seeing.
I don't know, it's all alleged. I always feel a little bit dirty
about sharing these things because like there was no
criminal report, there was nothing.
I do think though like back to the overall Rashid Rice
situation again, stress is enough.
I'm not a lawyer, I don't understand how these things
work. Drew Davenport though, who does
a lot of good work in sort of analyzing the legal stuff from a
fantasy perspective. He said that prior criminal
history is really important in these cases.
Now I'm not too worried about this pre draft incident but the
fact that now he has this like new assault incident like while
he's being charged with felony aggravated assault for the
driving thing like with the the prosecutors be able to weigh
this like new charge like I don't know it just seems like
really bad if sort of your prior history is a factor in these
type of legal things and then you go out and allegedly punch
some photographer at a nightclub like that seems like that could
be factored in to how they view this original incident.
So again. But the nightclub owner said, of
course he wasn't drunk. It wasn't really.
It wasn't like a brawling situation.
Like, maybe this was just like a business deal gone.
No, you. Love to trust nightclub owners?
Of the lit. Of the lit kitchen.
I mean here's. The account was that he showed
him Instagram messages on on his own phone.
This is all hearsay. I don't know.
But the what what people are saying is that that he showed
and then he hit him with the with the accusation that he was
messaging his girlfriend. That's what that's what the
accusation was, that he basically was like come back
here and then he's like I'm showing him the messages
allegedly. And then that's where that's
where the incident occurred. So it wasn't.
And the fact that he wasn't drinking is potentially a red
flag, no. No, I think you're dead sober.
You do that. That's got to be mitigating.
That has to be mitigating. I don't know.
It's not that's that's you sober.
It doesn't seem great to me. Can we just just six games, NFL
Six games. Let let six games.
Here, here's the other thing I want to point out that came out
today that this was also from The Athletic.
I didn't see many people talking about this.
This was another big thing that Drew was talking about, like how
bad the injuries are really matter for this felony
aggravated assault charge. It has to be serious bodily
injury. Here's the description of the
injuries from The Athletic. The injuries include, quote,
trauma to the brain lacerations to the face requiring requiring
stitches, multiple conclusions about the body disfigurement,
internal bleeding and other internal and external injuries.
dot dot dot, like that sounds potentially a lot like serious
bodily injury to me. So there there was some stuff
initially that's like, oh it's just like these guys got
scratches. It's not a big deal.
I don't know. According to The Athletic, there
were some really serious injuries in this car crash.
So again that seems really bad and I have generally been on
like the rice is OK at a discount thing, but I do think
we are doing some coping in like just any piece of bad news.
We're like, Oh yeah, another great Rashid Rice buying
opportunity. Like at some point we got to
look at these things like. The call the call does not look
inside my house. The call I can't.
It's like what do I do when the the the round is 8 and it's
Christian Watson or Rashi Rice? I mean, what am I supposed to do
really? Poem the round is 8.
The haiku. Like, what am I really supposed
to just be like? I don't know.
I guess I'll just be scared. I don't know.
Here's what I wanted to say about Rishi Rice.
What if a lot of his production was because there was not
another wide receiver on the field that was able to do
anything? We all agree this is the case.
That his numbers are not nearly as good.
Yeah, like the. Yeah, they're fake.
They're fake numbers and now he has like legit target
competition. So even if he's not.
What if it's not legit target competition?
I think it is though. I do too, but what if it's not?
Yeah, I'm with that argument here a couple times.
Yeah, he he had really, he had a pretty low first read target
rate. So the to the extent that it was
fake, it was fake after someone else didn't get open for them,
you know, so and maybe, maybe. And that's that's an issue.
Yeah, I think it's potentially an issue, but normally under
normal circumstances we would expect the Chiefs to call a lot
more plays with Rishi. Rice's the first read in his
second season after the rookie season that he just had the
issue. Does that not happen now because
he's not really part of the plan.
So that so I agree with. I think it creates a much lower
floor than you would typically see for a player with his rookie
season. But I mean I also think the fact
that he was able to earn on that volume without a lot of first
read looks is extremely bullish in terms of like his ability to
show chemistry with with Mahomes.
I just. Think it was like Mahomes is
going to get his regardless and there was literally nobody to
throw the ball to. So like somebody was going to
look good. Now, I think Rashi Rice is a
decent player, but I mean the way that he was used really
close to the line of scrimmage, like anything beyond that is a
mystery and I I think. That that's still Andy Reid
still wants to have all of that. It like that's not going out of
the Andy Reid offense. Even if Xavier Worthy and
Hollywood Brown are amazing, they're the the this close to
the line of scrimmage up is not going anywhere.
But, but like, I think to like be like a very legit wide
receiver, you're going to need to do more than what Rasheed
Rice was doing now that we have Hollywood Brown and Xavier
Worthy and and I view Xavier Worthy just as a straight up,
way better player. Oh Xavier Worthy.
Xavier Worthy is my new replacement for favorite.
Click on the board now that I'm pretty sure Rashi Rice is
getting suspended 6 games. Yeah, maybe he's a better
player. But like, the fact that Rashi
Rice went out there and was like open a bunch of times when no
one else was is like, is huge. It's hard to overstate how
important that is compared to a guy who's got, like some serious
flags in his profile in in Xavier Worthy.
Like, this dude was really inefficient on deep targets.
I know a bunch of those were inaccurate.
I know he had a broken hand his second year.
But like, you know, he was really productive as a freshman.
Most of his best stuff is really kind of more more gadgety
things. He's like 108 lbs.
You know, like, there's there's ways that this doesn't work out.
And we look back and we're like, Oh yeah, you ran the fastest 40
ever because you are like, too small to actually play outside
receiver in the NFL. So I don't know.
I mean, like, as a prospect, it's not close.
It's if you're worthy, like by a bunch.
But Rice is right. I'm just more impressed by
Rice's rookie season, I think. Yeah, I I think my fear is I
think you can pretty much lock in a six game suspension at the
minimum now. And that's what I don't know,
that that's kind of what people are saying.
And I think it makes sense given what's happened this offseason.
You say can. You ask you a few guys whether
or not you're who you're taking here, yeah.
Do this for the next 13 1/2 minutes.
'Cause we're getting to the point where now we're talking
about JSN or Rashid Rice. Come on, I'm I'd probably take
JSN. I'm taking JSN.
You're taking JSN? Yeah.
OK, we're looking at Christian Watson or Rashid Rice.
I want Watson. Jimmy Watson.
Deante Johnson or Rashid Rice? Oh, geez.
Probably Rashid there. Yeah, yeah, Deonte scares me.
OK, yeah, that feels fair to me. I'm I was.
I'm kind of shocked that you were willing to say JSN soon.
I've I've been a little, I've been a little JSN pilled
recently. What?
Dude, please elaborate. That often's gonna finish.
I'm gonna say top 3IN air yards in top five in past attempts
this year. That's gonna be my my
prediction. Seahawks are gonna do complete
180 here. So I I want to go back to to JSN
last year like it it turned into a bit of me hitting JSN so much.
But all I was saying last year is that Tyler Lockett and DK
Metcalf are good and this guy broke his wrist like a week ago.
Like maybe we shouldn't be taking him in in the fifth
round. Like I wasn't prognosticating
like JSN is some massive boss as a player.
I'm just like price doesn't make sense to me.
I'm out now, year two. We do finally get the discount
that pick 85 or whatever. I'm willing.
I'm willing to give JSN a second chance at that price.
He's definitely not something I'm going to be like targeting.
But I think yeah, with pose the question him versus Rishi Rice,
I think I'd take JSN. What about, like, the running
backs in that range, like Samir White, Romandre Stephenson?
You're taking those dudes ahead. I I feel like at that point it's
just so structured dependent. It's hard to say.
In a vacuum, yeah, yeah. In a vacuum, probably, yes.
Like Romandre. Yes.
Yeah. I kind of like that to your
receivers. You get all those rookies in
there JSN second year breakout, then like Cortland, Sutton's
still the number one on his team.
OK, so you're in on Sutton. No one's in on Sutton.
I can't get, I can't get any bites on Sutton as a good pick.
I think he's a good pick. Son's a guy that you can take,
but you you shouldn't be openly touting him.
I mean that's. I mean, yeah, those are the best
these. 2 gross we're seeing, we know it's gross.
Those are the best picks. Yeah, Speaking of guys.
You openly touted Austin Hooper. We can't tell.
Speaking of guys you get openly shamed for touting, Josh Jacobs
has fallen 6 picks. Pick 37 We've done a little bit
of Josh Jacobs on the show already, so we'll keep it quick,
but Hayden I. Know your promises that we keep
this quick, actually. Hayden Why?
Why is Josh Jacobs a good pick here?
So I think the Packers are just going to be really good this
year, just the way that they closed last year.
And I get Marshawn Lloyd's like a fun pick to you.
I I dropped some Marshawn Lloyd, but I think there's like some
schematic reasons why they want Josh Jacobs.
Like if you look at what the Shanahan tree is doing, McVeigh
included. Like they're changing from like
zone based offenses to like power gap based offenses and
that's what Josh Jacobs is good at.
And we just saw this with Kyron Williams.
We've seen this with Christian McCaffrey and there's like some
reasons why they chose Josh Jacobs over Aaron Jones.
And Aaron Jones, like historically, has been in a
committee. But the floor wants to get the
running backs really involved. And Josh Jacobs just way bigger
than Aaron Jones. I think there's a chance that he
absorbs more of the kind of share of that backfield.
And yeah, now he's in the fourth round, so even though I rank him
higher, I still only draft him right next to ADP.
So yeah, I'm totally fine with him dropping.
I think that the Packers, they drafted a first round lineman.
The team is projected for a bunch of wins this year.
They were one of the best offenses from like week 12 on
last year. I think Lafleur is a fantastic
coach and I think that the way that they're trying to move the
offense like in general makes sense why they signed Josh
Jacobs to a big contract. And the other thing I've seen
Josh Jacobs be a top five ish overall fantasy asset like just
two years ago. So it's not like this is
completely absurd here. Like last year was really bad,
which we should factor indefinitely, but he was just as
good the year before. Fantasy points above replacement
was like at plus 20%. Last year was like a -15%.
So we've seen him kind of get to that baseline level and then the
Aaron Jones workloads like plenty enough for Josh Jacobs to
be a top 10 running back this year.
That makes sense. And I wanted to show this
quickly and then I'll let you chime in Korean.
In terms of like getting to his career baseline, Ryan Heath of
Fantasy Points pulled this together.
He basically compared PPR scoring versus sort of a
player's opportunities and looked at last year's
differential, that's that diff column versus the career
differential. Josh Jacobs was was obviously
terrible last year but his career different differential is
much closer to a guy who just kind of gets what the
opportunities are that's laid out for him.
And I'm. I'm willing to say that like man
he's been on pretty bad teams his whole career.
A lot of running back efficiency stats I think do come down to
teams not the player. So I definitely see the case
there. I I am also a bit worried about
the Marshawn law and stuff. But yeah, curious.
Curious where your thoughts are are Crane on whether Jacobs can
you know beat this price at pick 37 or pick 30.
Yeah, pick 37. Sorry.
Yeah, I mean I think he definitely can beat the price at
pick 37. I don't think he's a bad pick.
You know at the end of the third round, I think he's he's like
totally fine there. I don't think he's a priority
because he's coming off a very inefficient season.
It's like chronic crazy how inefficient he actually was.
He was like worse than AJ Dillon.
You know you look at the the rush yards over expected.
This the stats that I was referencing earlier in success
rate with James Cook, he had a success rate of 35%.
That was behind Tony Pollard, behind Jerome Ford, behind
Kareem Hunt, Austin Eckler. He was pretty poor and rush
hour's over expected as well. Left 86 yards on the field there
only better than Kamara Hunt, Jamal Williams and Rashad White
behind guys like AJ Dillon, Zeke Elliott, Miles Sanders, Austin
Eckler. Alexander Madison, Tony Pollard.
I mean it was it was bad. It was really, really bad.
And I think like if you're looking at a guy who I think is
probably going to have like middling to OK efficiency.
There's just a ton of those guys.
You know you can get like David Montgomery, you can get Najee
Harris. You know you're.
I think he does represent a pretty big premium on the
Packers bet which could certainly pay off.
But I just have a hard time thinking about him as like, you
know, one of the keys to the season, in part because Lafleur
has not talked about him as like a workhorse, Like Coach Peak
Index has a quote. You guys know how I feel
philosophically. I think you have to have
multiple backs in this league. I don't see it really changing
much in terms of how we want to use our backs.
And then the Coach Peak Index takeaways that he thinks he's
basically going to be in the Aaron Jones role.
Aaron Jones is an explosive runner and an awesome receiver.
Josh Jacobs, even at his best, I don't think was as good as Aaron
Jones was at his best. So just like I'm getting like a
less exciting player in the same role as Aaron Jones again in the
third, fourth round. I don't, I don't hate it at all.
I mean, you can kind of like, lock up the touches.
It's like pretty well priced. But that's why I pushed back on
the idea that, like somehow this is a missed price.
The other thing though, is we're everyone's assuming now that he
is either average or below average inefficiency. 2 years
ago he was pretty. Pretty.
Yeah, it was awesome too. Yeah, it was.
Awesome too and and like looking at like I posted on Twitter,
David Montgomery before and after when you're on the Bears
versus the Lions, like the efficiency just goes immediately
way up. So like there is a chance that
the efficiency just gets way better with Josh Jacobs.
And I saw somebody was asking about percentage of carries in a
stack box and I just looked at him real quick.
Josh Jacobs had 83 carries into eight or nine defenders in the
box, which is that's an absurd amount.
And on them he only averaged 1.9 yards per attempt.
So the Raiders were just like not giving this up, like we're
going to run it right into eight or nine or ten defenders in the
box and we're just going to keep doing it even though it's not
working. So I think there could be some
reasons we're like, all right, Matt Lafleur is not going to do
that. Maybe the other Raiders OCS that
keep getting fired, they would do that.
But Luke. Getsy's down, Luke.
Getsy's gonna try it. Yeah.
So yeah, I think, I think Zamir White, this thing could flip
where? Yeah, this could be Josh.
This could be Josh Mcdaniel's stat from last year.
This could have been like once Mcdaniel's got fired, maybe the
new OC did a little bit of a better job with Samir White than
Josh Jacobs. I I do think it is like at least
worrying you compare this Samir White to Josh Jacobs stuff head
to I got different coaches over the period of times they were
playing Jacob's. Got some of Antonio Pierce?
Yeah he got some I mean but yeah I I am kind of more in the
ballpark that like these efficiency stats running backs
like fluctuates so wildly year to year that I don't look into
them too too much. And yeah my other point was
Korean I I get the the Aaron Jones role point.
I think the big difference from the Josh Jacobs versus the Aaron
Jones role is it it could be like similar in terms of a snap
share split from Jacobs to Lloyd then Jones to Dillon.
But it could be Jacobs with like 100% of the goal line work.
Whereas what was always frustrating with Aaron Jones
right is AJ Dillon was taking 50 ish percent of that right.
So again on a team and Marshawn. Lloyd's more the Aaron Jones
type of. That's the big thing, yeah.
Marshawn Lloyd is like low success rate, really high
explosives. Like, I think it would be a lot
for Marshawn Lloyd to like, like be the number one by the end of
the season. Just be like the style runner.
Like there's a a trust factor that most coaches haven't given.
So he's a little Ronald Jonesy isn't.
He, I mean, he's so Ronald Jonesy and the best way is in
the worst ways. But I think like that type of
profile is like maybe we do the thing with like Jalen Warren.
We're like, wow, on his 100 touches, he looks pretty damn
good now. We should get him more involved
going forward, not like. And then he continues to look
really good. Yeah, and then he looks really
good. And then we're we're ready to
party. But I'm not sure if Marshawn
Lloyd has, like, immediately earned trust.
Yeah. Yeah, this is a point that
everyone will hate but like. Probably not.
Like I, I worry about his ability to earn trust.
Right. And then in a Roto type of way,
the opposite, like even when Jacobs is not good, I mean
Antonio Pierce loves Josh Jacobs.
Like he, Josh Jacobs is like the trust guy I've.
Called him Fancy Devin Singletary, which is obviously a
little derogatory, but it's also like Devin, you know, who earns
trust? Devin Singletary.
Yeah. Yeah, let's move on here to
Drake, May. Even though he completed 38 of
39 passes in practice today, he's still down 17 spots.
I I don't know how this is. Clearly underdog drafters are
not grinding the news like we are.
Crane, are you still? Are you still taking the Drake?
May oh, I'm back in. I'm back in, baby.
This, this new price. I mean this dude is like he's
like Justin Herbert with a more aggressive mindset like that's
now I'm you know is he gonna turn out to be as good as
Herbert. No.
He's gonna be Blake Bortles but it's gonna be fun it's gonna be
fun this year. Yeah.
I'm I'm excited about Drake may like at A at a big discount I I
took him a ton in the big board you're getting you're getting a
little bit of that you know what if the Vikings trade up what if
the the commanders take him Obviously that doesn't happen
those those shares are a little less fun but I think he's he's
the number three overall pick they refused the Vikings were
begging them to come up and get him they refused to trade down
then they're going to bench him behind Jacoby Brissett for you
know half a season I doubt it you know I think he's he's
getting out on the field fairly quickly and I still just
maintain the biggest part of this people just don't get how
fantasy friendly this guy's skill set is.
He's big. He's very willing as a
scrambler. He runs around the goal line and
he throws deep. He throws deep willingly and
pretty well his big time throws on on deep balls were very
impressive. So I'm into the Drake May
fantasy friendly skill set more than anything else.
And then it also helps if you're running out of if you need a
backdoor stack, nothing is easier.
You get Jalen Bulk, you get Antonio Gibson, you take Baker,
Henry Bourne. You can't even get boxed out.
You can take KJ Osborne at the end.
If you get boxed out, it's like it's impossible.
It's impossible. I'm just drafting all the
Patriots. What's a What's a better What's
a better backdoor stack? If you're trying to win $1.5
million on underdog.com, Justin Fields and Roman Wilson or Drake
May and Hunter Henry, which which side are you taking?
Drake. May and.
Hunter Henry, come on. I was doing this with Mac Jones
last year. Hand up I was Devante Parker.
Well, no, I was I I I was trying.
To see that AMC, yeah. I was trying to craft a a tweet
this morning. I couldn't quite figure out the
right words, but I was like it was like year four of drafting a
Patriots quarterback in round 17 and one of their loser pass
catchers in round 18. But surely this will be the year
at work it? Has to work this year.
It has to work this year. Here's the thing that's I think
not not very known about my fantasy game is I'm a Patriots
man. I'm not that vocal about it and
my Patriots bias like seeps into my fantasy drafting even though,
like, I pretend it doesn't. Like every year.
I just like, wow, I I just love this Mack Jones, Hunter Henry
late round stack. It's so good this year.
I'm like Romandra in the seventh round.
Like might as well draft him every time.
I mean, I don't really know how it is 30% Devante Parker, other
than being a Patriots fan. No, it's just it's so deep
inside me that I like denied that the bias is there, but it
just went every year. So how much may you get?
Yeah, yeah, I'm doing. I'm not going to KJ Osborne, but
I'll draft May and all. Right, maybe all this went too
far there. I think you went too far there,
But yeah, give me Douglas Baker. Oh, Douglas.
Yeah. Oh God, there's so.
Many Oh, well, OK, well, while we have noted Chargers fan
Hayden winks on the program, can I just what What's your personal
opinion on what Harbaugh's plan for Quinton Johnson is?
Oh, Quinton. Punk Gunner.
Well guys, they changed the kick return rule.
You guys, you know that, right? Well, if I'll tell you this, if
DJ Shark is starting at a single snap over Quinn Johnson, it is
so over. For oh, it's DJ Shark is like
the Dementor for failed first round wide receiver prospects.
Sorry, 1 snap where Shark is playing over QJ.
It's a complete sell. So that's the only thing I know
about that. That's.
So fucking funny, because he just did it to Minko.
And he just said it's over, Yeah.
And he did it to did he do it? To Jameson Williams, too.
He did it to Jameson Williams. Yeah, he's the.
The one meme. Oh.
Yeah, if you're Yeah, if you're not better than DJ Shark, you
might be. Terrible.
Well, I guess. I guess this is where I should
go hand up I I'm I'm like drafting like Uncorrelated
Unstacked Quinton Johnson. Because what if you know what?
He was. He was good against Michigan in
college. Right.
Really hoping you had something stronger.
Than. What if?
I guess the the what if the what if the the real life what if
would be we used to have much different aging curve
expectations for wide receivers. Rookie wide receivers would play
and suck a lot, and I'm kind of ready for a wave of us being
wrong about guys in year one and then going way too far and
leaving them for dead. And then in year two, they
rebound to some degree, I mean. It works for Jalen Rigger,
right? It's not going to.
That's the thing. The thing that's so different
now is, is rookie wide receivers play all the time.
So it's going to happen. It's going to happen way less
often, but you know. Yeah, I mean in.
I think it's not a bad point, Davis.
I mean. It's it's a pretty bad point
because I don't really believe it but but so The thing is is he
might be better than the dust balls on his team like Josh
Palmer stinks you know. Glad Mcconkey.
I just like I saw the clip of him wearing the mushroom helmet.
The other. Day and that was so bad.
It was so bad. They are not doing him any
favors, letting him get photographed and videoed in the
mushroom helmet. And to me, Quinton Johnston was
like very developmental in my opinion, like a lot of his
production, including that Michigan, Michigan game, it was
like play action, deep post coverage bus and he picks up a
bunch of yards and then there was some screens and then he
would, he had the athletic skills to make the first guy
miss and then run out of bounds. Like to me, there was a work in
progress to kind of filter in between the two of those things
and he had the athletic tools to do that and he was a young
player where like eventually maybe.
He can, and you can tell when he's not thinking.
He's actually pretty good. Remember the like 85 yard catch
from Easton Stick? Like when he's just in the
decision, when he's not having to make any decisions and it's
just bullets flying, he's all right.
But that's not really the way the game is played anymore.
I don't. Think he's going to be a volume
guy. I think the best case scenario
is. 10 touchdowns. Play action, play action, deep
shots. Herbert's just throwing absolute
missiles. He has two catches for 80 yards
and we get Jameson Williams type of stuff.
I feel like that would be. A wide receiver 67, yeah, that's
like, I think I can. I think because I I don't want
to have any Palmer really at all.
It's Sharks second season is is the the upside case really
right. Like he bombed his rookie season
second round pick and then he was kind of awesome.
He was like, you know we were like psyched to play this dude
in DFS. He looked like he was an
emerging maybe not like superstar but like one of the
like a good young wide receiver in the league.
And then that was ended up being kind of the flash in the plan
pan only season that really mattered.
But I think it's definitely possible.
Yeah, I mean the the Charger stuff too.
I guess Mcconkey is is getting up there, but it's so, so cheap.
If you want to start in round 10 and grab like 4 Chargers
players, it's not a terrible strategy.
Honestly. Like we could just be.
I mean, honestly, I think we are a little bit wrong on the
Charger stuff and saying they're going to be so bad.
And you know, going back to the 1990s, like Harbaugh's going to
be a boomer and he's going to be run base.
But I think it's ultimately going to be a pretty efficient
offense, even if it's not high volume, like, well, the you
could run. Into the Roman offenses are
always efficient. It's after that where you run
into the problem. Yeah, I mean Greg Roman.
His first year with Lamar, Lamar Jackson was the the third best
offense in NFL history of the last.
Decade. But but he does.
That happens. That effect is because the the
guy's run. Is he going to turn Herbert into
a dual threat? Because if so, then we are.
He made Alex. I mean, he made Alex Smith like
he he turned Alex Smith into like a top twelve offense in San
Francisco a couple years. Yeah, but I think that's sort of
era specific. We pulled this, I was on the
Rotorworld pod and we pulled up Alex Smith's stats, and they
were. Like 24 rounds.
Yeah, no, for real. Like he had, yeah, 23
touchdowns. Peak Peak.
My name is Herbert is. The guys around him are just, I
mean, awful. And like, I don't mind Justin
Herbert as my second quarterback.
Like it's guys like Chase Brown, Rashid, Shaheed, Jared Goff,
Jacoby Myers, Taiji Spears, Josh Palmer, Dalton Schultz.
Like those. Those are the guys right around
Justin Herbert. Like, I don't mind just taking
Herbert as my quarterback, too, and then back stacking it with
Quinn, Johnson, or freaking Will Disley or Vidal or whatever.
Like that tear around Herbert's so bad that.
I read the the wrong stat. It's he peaked its 18
touchdowns. You mentioned Disley there.
Disley's AI drafted Disley on not not on underdog.
Yet on DraftKings I've. Drafted him on underdog.
I've drafted from Underdog. So Disley's the you think
Disley's the answer 'cause they also have Hayden Hurst?
So this we got got way more money than Hearst, I think.
Hayden Hearst, I I mean I just did this on the show last week
so I don't want to belabor the point, but he he had such a bad
concussion last year he forgot his name.
He he he he medically retired for like like temporary amnesia.
So like shout out to him for rehabbing and getting back or
whatever. But that feels like just like
the most precarious situation I can imagine.
So yeah, the Disley. Disley is the is my inconvenient
truth talking about backdoor stacks.
I mean, Justin Herbert is now so cheap that you can get him as a
back. Like you can go Herbert Round
11. QJ, Round 13.
Kamani Vidal, Round 14. Disley, Round 18.
Not that you don't even have to do, Disley.
I'm in a bunch of slow drafts and I'm doing stuff where I take
Palmer as like my wide receiver, six or five, and then I set up
the Herbert on the on the raft. On the other side, and.
If I get Herbert, awesome. And if I don't, you know I'll
figure out. I'm gonna draft Drake.
Well then you have then you have uncorrelated Josh Palmer.
So what I do is I take Dantavy and Wicks there, 'cause I think
Wicks is a way better player and way better bet, and then I just
figure the Herbert stuff out next 'cause I'm in a bunch of
slows too. I will say I mean Herbert.
I don't think Herbert's gonna. I don't believe in this offense
at all. But like I I am willing to be
humble if I'm paid for it. And and the market's paying me
to be humble on Justin Herbert, right?
You're getting a big discount. He'll be a spike week guy.
He'll have a bunch of weeks where he has 186 passing yards.
But there, I mean, Hayden, what do you think they'll be Chiefs
games, they'll be a shootout, One of those maybe.
They just absolutely smoke the Raiders one of these games.
Like they'll be like four or five real spike weeks.
When we get Chiefs versus Chargers Week 17 on Wednesday,
you guys will be drafting Justin Herbert in the eighth round.
So. I've already got a I've already
got a bunch of Mahomes Mcconkey teams for this eventuality.
What? What if we get Chargers Raiders.
Man, yeah, 17th round. We are.
We are officially rooting for Raiders Buccaneers in Week 17,
so Peter and I can go be boots on the ground for the Laird
Lauby jersey swap in Week 17. Wow.
Yeah, we need that. We need that.
All right. Let's let's talk about Chupa
Hubbard for some reason, I guess I.
Don't think we need to. No.
We I I really don't think he needs it.
I wanted to. I wanted to hit the one last
thing for news Odell. Odell Beckham going to Miami.
This is drop. Jonnu.
This is drop. Malik Washington.
What are our thoughts? Hayden, What do you think Odell
has left in the tank after Washington last year in
Baltimore? It's a good landing spot for him
because like you guys mentioned, like they do so much of the
motion stuff, these these guys are just tired out there so they
can't play all the snaps. So when Jalen Waddle's
exhausted, now it's Odell time to run the motion routes and
he's not going to be fantasy relevant.
Jonas Smith's a fine punt tight end.
But yeah, I don't. I don't see it really mattering
to anybody's individual projection.
Are you? Are you drafting?
The tight end Why is she affecting Jonas Smith's ADP at
all? I think it's just the idea that
Jonny kind of looked like the clear third option in the
passing game, just like if you're scheming up touches to a
player from a coaching perspective.
And now that probably should be Odell, right?
That. That was my thought.
Should it? This dude was useless to close
last season. Yeah, I I I will have a good
0.0% of Odell and if anything it makes it more likely that I do
round 18 Malik Washington. Because it's going to take Malik
Washington from being like a 80% drafted player to like a what?
Probably like AI mean literally. Maybe maybe 25% of best ball
mania drafts have him. Why are we drafting Malik
Washington again? I like the profile, but he's a
six round pick. No, we're we shouldn't.
Be bored, man. It's fucking.
We're bored. Yeah, this is, Yeah, this.
Is our our topic? Number one, we're we're bored in
May. What's going on with these
rookie? He gets on base, dude.
He gets on base. Tell us who the RV twos are on
like 10 more depth charts and we won't.
We just. We just.
Don't. That's why I'm drafting these
awful tight ends in the last round.
No, I. Tucker crafts Dawson.
Knox. Easy, yeah, Parkin.
Colby Parkinson. I'll throw on.
No, the Colby Parkinson thing is you're it's like Congrats, you
won the guy on the bench behind Tyler Higbee in Week 17.
I'd like to see it. I think Higbee's a total.
Ass. I think Higbee's done.
Yeah, I think it might get caught a.
Lot of guys have tried. A lot of guys have tried to kill
Tyler Higbee, Bryson Hopkins, Kendall Blanton.
What was the? Guy, you guys the Super athlete?
Jacob Harris. Jacob Harris.
Yes, that guy was a stud A. Lot of guys, a lot of guys have
come. Guys have come for Tyler Higbee.
He was. He was Theo Johnson before Theo
Johnson. The strategy for this year is
what if the Seahawks, all three of the tight ends that they had
last year were all so good and now that they're all separated
from each other, there's correlation where it's like all
three of them were studs. That's why they were in even
rotation. You go to Fant, Disley,
Parkinson, and we're like, wow, that's why they were in a
committee. They're all, they're all so
good. Actually, if that's.
True late. Round tight end.
For sure, no fan is by far the best late round tight end.
Well, no, he's not. He's he's not.
He definitely is. He's exactly who he is, and he's
always been. But he's he's round rate's going
to go up from like 55% to 70. So that's that would be that
would be the difference. It's it's the David.
It's the David and Joku thing. Like when when they paid David
and Joku that big contract after he was like a timeshare tight
end. Everyone was like the Browns are
so stupid like David and Joku sucks immediately that next year
he was awesome before he got hurt.
Obviously it's pattern matching to some degree, but these tight
ends, like they just this late breakout thing for tight ends
happens all the time. And like, who's playing snaps at
tight end instead of no offense, Seattle.
I don't know who it is. It's a Ricky.
I'm. I'm worried we're going to learn
names, because sometimes we learn names when the answer's
like it's his name's. I was.
I was learning, yeah. I was learning names in the
Titans Titan. Room the Second The second name
is as funny as it gets. It literally could not be
funnier. The second guy on the Rs?
It's Pharaoh Brown oh. No, we're in.
We're in Good. Shape.
No, that's. What you guys?
No, we're in great shape. So what you That's So what you
guys think. And then all of a sudden, Tyler
Mabry is playing 33. Percent, I would have been
worried if you were, said Mercedes Lewis.
I'd be like, shit. Yeah, yeah.
I think. I think I just have been.
I mean, minorly fan pilled. It's just like I I'm looking for
any reason to stop taking Tucker Craft and and Dawson Knox so so
this is a good reason. I do think there's like the late
round tight ends. It's tough because so many of
the guys get kind of fanted or or either in the Hayden Hurst
zone where they just like run. You know, like who or who was
the dude that we drafted on the Panthers like four years ago was
real athletic and he was good for like 1, exactly 1 minute.
Ian Thomas. Ian Thomas?
Yeah, Ian Thomas. And then it's like, oh Nope,
it's just a rotation. Like there's basically there's
like 5 teams potentially this year that just like essentially
aren't playing a fantasy relevant tight end because no
one's going to accumulate enough.
Snacks. But that's what so like, that's
what you think though, about the rotation stuff.
And then all of a sudden the guy you've never heard of starts
rotating in. What do you?
This is this is the Noah fan issue, yes.
Yeah, no, that's what I'm saying.
It's the Noah fan issue. You you give him 75 and then
it's like Pharaoh Brown gets he only gets 20, but then this
other dude gets 20. Two, but Tyler Mabry gets 8 and
they play a full back, Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
But I think also Pete Carroll's gone in Seattle.
Like, I think the Will Disley thing was a Pete Carroll thing.
I think the Parkinson thing was AI don't think they're like
philosophy. It's not like Seattle's
philosophy, like philosophically committed to.
They didn't even they. You need to see the coaching
this. Part is when they had to, I got
it. I got yeah, they.
Smell so good? I got to correct you on this,
Pete. Carroll's not the head coach.
He's still employed by the team. What?
Yes. Does he get to set the tie down
rotation? No, he's in.
He's in like an he's in like an advisory role now on the team.
It's not they. They basically just realized we
can't have an 85 year old. Oh my God.
He's on it for Jess, first because they won't pay him
Social Security. He needs, he needs the the money
right now. Why is he still employment?
Team So, like, I think people treating this like brand new
Seahawks, like need to zoom out on the chart a little bit.
Like, I would not agree with that assessment.
They kept the same quarterback. It's a new offense, though.
Like that Huskies offense last year was so sick.
Like I'm not new. Coordinator.
I'm not trying to be, I'm not trying to to be a downer on any
of that. I just, I'm saying it's not,
this is not like, you know, they didn't just become, I don't
know, the the 49ers overnight or whatever.
I think the just generally with the last time I had on the tight
ends is I think now is the time to do the late round tight end
because we don't know who the RV twos are right now and
eventually we'll know that. And then at the same time most
likely the mid round running backs in August, their ADP is
going to go up and I think that the tight ends in that range are
going to slide down a little bit.
So then you're basically you can draft the kind of Kyle Pitts
cohort, the Marc Andrews cohort guys maybe they're 5670 spots
down in August and then we don't have to draft as many know.
But if Marc Andrew's going to pick 60 in August, I'm gonna
have the biggest bag of anyone I've I've maybe ever had.
That's, yeah. I would love I think.
I think I need to start taking more fan though.
Like this. This depth chart is brutal.
Yeah. Like it's.
Like. Former first round.
It's a good former first round pick.
Like, really good athlete. And drafted to be a receiver, I
mean, that's that's like. I think his career yards per out
run, if you look at it, it's like 1.5 or something.
I I totally made that up. But I think it's like pretty
good. It it's been bad the last couple
years, but. I got to ask Winx a question,
though. Who?
Who is the offensive coordinator for Seattle now?
Ryan Grubb from Washington Huskies.
OK, so if if you're looking for a reason of how fans routes get
cut, do you know who they? Did they take the guy that they
from that offense? They took, they took Westover.
They took the tight end from from the Huskies.
Was he a draft pick or a UDUDFA? I assume a UDFA Jack Westover
I'll take. My I'll take my chances.
Yeah, I mean, like, probably it's gonna be fine, but.
Stan Noah Fan has a career yards broadband of 1.47.
How does it make you feel to just know that off the top of
your head? Like, I'm on that spectrum of
sex having versus when you're drafting you.
Know what is Hunter? What is Hunter having his career
Yards per round. We know, we know where to find
you on the Sharp. Yeah, you know where?
To find me on the sharp. Hunter had any 1.3 that.
Sounds right. No, I think that.
Might be that sounds right. Maybe a little low.
Let's sort by the touchdowns. Who cares about yards at tight
end? That's so.
It's literally so true. Sort by fucking touchdowns.
Yeah, 1.41.48 for Hunter Henry. The honest truth is that you can
guess 1.5 for most tight ends for.
Most tight ends, yeah. Pat Firemuth was the other guy
that has a little bit of post hype sleeper and there's no one
else in that offense to throw the ball to.
We know that Arthur Smith fantasizes about.
About about Darnell Washington He.
Yeah, I was thinking. About that's a problem.
He He's going. To he's going to be a blocker.
All the all the the play action actually.
Think they're legit? Blocking.
They're legit going to, I think could just convert him to tackle
eventually. The whole point is not to tip
your hand. So you put Darnell Washington,
well, we're going to run the ball.
We're definitely going to run the ball.
And then Nope. Darnell Russo is one of the.
World's slowest round Who is Darnell Washington?
If not, fancy Michael Pruitt, Honestly.
Yeah, yeah. What is the Steelers plan at in
three wide receiver sets? Are they just not going to do
them this year? They're not doing them.
Fryerman is going to be the slot receiver basically, and it's
going to be Roman Wilson and Pat Fryerman is out in the routes
with Pickens and Darnell Washington in there to block and
all the play action stuff. Like Pratt, Fryerman is going to
have like the targets per route. Oh no, you guys are so wrong.
You guys are so wrong about this.
Van Jefferson is playing ahead of Roman Wilson.
Come on, Van Jefferson is also a good DJ Shark.
Van Jefferson Van Jefferson is like a a.
Super Elite. Yeah, see ya.
Yeah. Yeah, every route that he runs
ahead of Roman Wilson, we have to lower Wilson one spot in the
ranks. Yeah, I mean Van Van Jefferson
is like a a really good run blocker.
That was like his thing, that that was like his selling point.
This depth chart is insane. So bad Calvin Austin.
Denzel Mims. I love Quez Watkins.
Dez Fitzpatrick. Scott Miller.
Marcus Callaway. This is a year.
Memories of a round eighteen guys.
We shouldn't have drafted, yeah. Memories of around 18 past.
Well, Marcus Callaway was memories of Round 8 past.
Yeah, not, not for me. OK, don't.
Forget why I. I do.
I do want to talk about Justin Fields here real quick because
that this is officially where I've reached.
I'm completely jumping the shark as someone who just wants to win
$1.5 million playing fantasy football.
If I'm thinking to myself, I don't know, I really need 13
points in week 13 when Mahomes is on by or whatever, and taking
Bonex when it's like we know beyond a shadow of a doubt.
If Russell Wilson retired from football tomorrow, we know
exactly what the market would do.
Fields would come all the way back up.
He would go ahead of Dax, he would go ahead of Kyler, he
would go right next to Joe Burrow and like the seventh
round. And he he is also completely
protected from sucking at fantasy because he'll just run
like he'll he just, we will just run like you.
You call pass play for him, Arthur Smith, whatever.
It doesn't matter. I'm just going to run like I
think you got to start working him in, especially on I think
elite quarterback teams, if this makes sense, where you have
Kurtz or Allen or whatever, where you really are just
wanting a unique 31 ball out of nowhere and you don't have to
stack him either. You can take him totally naked.
So that's where I'm at. I've been sitting here in the
one 90s just waiting for Justin Fields to come down and here he
is. He's here.
So I think. I think it's time.
I think it's a it's a great point he's got.
He fell to the range. There's very little opportunity
cost. Hayden just noted that the late
rounds were we. We don't know what to do.
Why not? Why not draft Justin Fields and
tack him on to sure elite, elite quarterback.
But why not tack him on to Brock Purdy and Trevor Lawrence?
That's that's also a good way to do it, yeah.
And he's we're getting to the point where he's not going to be
drafted every single time especially.
If he's correct. And we're going to get the
unique builds. Like, let's say Russell Wilson
is like, oh, he's totally cooked.
He's starting in August, like now you're going to have the
unique build. So it's like it's now or never.
And for those type of guys, I feel like it's.
I mean isn't that isn't that what is going to happen?
Like Russell Wilson is going to be cooked and like is like kind
of a dog, maybe even a start week or.
Russell Wilson is cooked like this, too.
Sean Payton came. Remember Sean Payton?
Offensive guru Sean Payton? He took a look at.
Russell was like, no, get the. He said.
He said get Bone Nicks in the
building for me right now, I can't live with Russell Wilson.
You go to the University of Auburn and get me Bone Nicks
now. He saw a dude throwing screen
passes on Saturday and was like, that guy.
I need that guy right now. Bone Nicks also fantastic eighth
round, 18th round pick. He.
He I mean. The, the, the, the rushing.
I think the rushing stuff with Knicks is is a little under 36
rushing touchdowns in college. Yeah, there's no way.
There's no way from leadership with Mike Tomlin.
You got, you know who's going to come in and be like, you know,
the Steelers minds that they want Russell Wilson or the guy
that like the Bears locker room was in love with.
It's Justin Peels is starting by the end of the season for sure.
And even if he doesn't, neither were your other shitty 18 round
picks anyways. You don't.
You don't need you don't need Beau Nix's points in Week 6 on
your on your Justin Herbert Aaron Rodgers team anyways.
What you do need is you need to find someone who can go nuclear
in in a given week. So Sam and I have a bet on
Justin Fields of whether or not he starts week one.
He got it in good there. Do you want to go heads up?
Heads up points, Justin Fields or not, they Parker.
Eagles wide receiver three. I don't know, man.
Could be hey. Johnny.
Wilson. Eraser.
Come on. Yeah.
And I'll say that Justin Fields is like he's a he's a backup
quarterback and they're starting quarterback in the draft that
that's all I got to say. I mean the the I I do, I mean
Knicks. I I guess I should go back to
that like Knicks is kind of like a mystery box in the sense of
like what? What is the Broncos offense
even? Look, they have no wide receiver
talent. What do you think Bo Nick's his
average rushing yards in rushing touchdowns per game was in
college, Bo Nick. His rushing touchdowns are
shockingly. It's it's a 12 rushing
touchdowns per game or something.
Yeah, and he runs for like 30 yards a game.
But keep in mind, keep in mind like this, like he used, like
the Gus Malzahn Auburn stuff and then like the base.
On Oregon. Yeah, well, playing in Oregon is
cheating. Playing you you you basically
play 9 exhibition games and then two real games a year at at
Oregon. I'm not, I'm not trying to take
anything away from Knicks like I I I like the idea.
But Fields has a demonstrably better single game.
Oh yeah, for sure. But Knicks is a good pick.
Knicks is a good pick. You're getting job security, you
know, and and when I say job security, I'm, I'm thinking
about the fantasy playoffs. Who's getting?
Who's getting started in the fantasy playoffs?
You don't get that with Daniel Jones, who's goes in that range.
You don't get that with Gardner. Minshew, who goes in that range?
You have, I think, much stronger job security for the fantasy
playoffs with the rookie quarterback who they just
drafted early in the first round.
And then, yeah, there's a little bit of a mystery box element
with the rushing. Like, if he runs a little bit
about around the goal line, in some ways, like the Oregon stuff
should have made him run less, right?
It's all like gimmicky short stuff.
What? What's this dude taking off?
He's a. Five star recruit, like this
guy's like a legit decent athlete and yeah, I know like he
had 97th percentile EPA play. Like you don't just walk into
that like that's he took a lot of strays and I get it.
But even when you remove their screens and the Rpos like the
dude was still lighting it up. So I'm interested.
He's a better, he's a better quarterback prospect than than
Pennex. And Bryce, I agree.
Well. I mean rice is rice is too
small, man, can we get real for one?
Second, yeah, Danny Carter had this last year.
He's just like, he's too small. It's not gonna work.
And then boom, that's. Exactly what I mean the The
thing is is Knicks kind of looks like what a quarterback looks
like. That's the interesting thing.
You know, like you just you just kind of look at him in the
huddle, look at him in the past. He kind of looks like a
quarterback, which I don't know. That adds like 2 fantasy points
per game. That's two starts per year I
would. Say Yeah, definitely.
That starts. So it's like, why Sam Darnold
still has a job is he's got the square, he's he's got the square
jaw on the wide shoulder. So it's just like sure,
whatever, $10 million a year what?
How do you guys think Brock Osweiler got paid back in the
day? And I'm like, come on.
Brock was almost He almost looked too much like a
quarterback. Yeah.
He's too big. Red flag.
It was too big. Same with Levis.
Levis, like, looks almost AI quarterback and he's like, all
right, that's we've gone too far.
It's too far. Yeah, that's like it.
Too far? All right, we got to get out of
here. We've gone off the deep end
here. One today's show.
We always do best closing line values does anyone.
So again, for people who haven't followed us before, we're not
predicting like the best picks. We're just saying, who do we
think is going to rise the most in ADP by the close of drafts
compared to today can? We can.
We have guests do this. Yeah, we had guests do this.
Yeah, we had guests do this last year.
Hayden, go ahead. Blake Coram He's 130th overall.
That's. Very interesting.
I think the running backs will go up, just generally, but I
also think there's like huge upside of Blake Coram's like in
the mix for any of those snaps. If something happens to Kyron
Williams, Blake Coram, I think goes into the third, fourth
round somewhere in there, this offense is ready to go.
I don't see him falling more like who's even the RB3 on the
Rams? It's like very clearly him.
Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
I think it's not going to take a lot for Blake Corm to get a
bunch of snaps in training camp, especially the way that McVeigh
treats training camp in preseason stuff.
So there's going to be a lot of opportunity for Blake Corm to be
like very much in in the news and like he touched the ball 400
times every season. So it's it's not easy to paint
the the picture of how Blake Horms like the guy you need in
Best Ball this year. OK, I I'm going to, I'm going to
save the Rashi Rice bullet for another week.
So if Crane wants to take it, he can.
I'm going to take someone very similar actually right next to
him in AVP. I'm going to take Zach
Chardonnay. Like literally almost the exact
same thing. The the third running back is
like a non existent person named Kenny McIntosh.
I think we'll start to get some good vibes about you know
obviously this brand new look Seattle Seahawks team but really
it's just he he actually worked into the timeshare we wanted him
to be in last year but got cheaper which doesn't doesn't
make a ton of sense. I I think he should go ahead of
Spears Elliott and Gus Edwards probably.
All honestly, I'm. Going to go a little more
boring, I'm going to say Josh Palmer.
We talked about God. I I took him the first time for,
well, we're doing duplicates or whatever, yeah, but we can do
duplicates. We can.
Do we? We can.
No. So we can dupe.
We can dupe each other, but we can't dupe ourselves.
OK, I I'm gonna go and let me go.
Drake May. Then we talked about him.
I'll go. Drake May.
He's finally. This is a This is a bad use of
this pick. He's not gonna go higher.
You're right. All right, I'm thinking.
Justin Fields? No.
I'm going Justin Fields. We talked about Justin Fields.
He's finally in the range he's going to.
Go Well, that's fine. He's going to take the job.
I got to get even on Justin Fields.
Yeah, that was a smart pick taking a backup quarterback.
All right, I'm going to go give me Jaleel McLaughlin.
Damn Jaleel. Jaleel was the other guy I was
going to take. That's a good Jaleel McLaughlin.
I I treated out some propaganda today already.
As we know I'm a huge market mover in the space so that
should adjust accordingly. But now I think, I don't know.
I think the Denver stuff is pretty ambiguous.
I think if you really look into Javonte Williams NFL career, it
it's pretty mediocre. He has this really bad knee
injury. Sometimes guys just don't come
back from really bad knee injuries.
I think Sean Payton has a guy in McLaughlin he likes.
I wouldn't be surprised if it's, you know has sees a bigger role
next year and I think we'll we'll probably get some training
camp buzz on that, yeah. Jaleel.
Jaleel is like, get him on all your teams and all like trade
for him in dynasty. Like, do like, do it all right
now. Because we're going to start
like, I don't know, fantasy. Like JJ Zacharison will put
something out in his draft guide or whatever that, like, shows
all the cumulative running back receptions and Sean Payton's
offenses. And then everyone will will pick
up on it and they'll realize that Julie Mclaughlin's gonna
catch 77 passes and there's nothing anyone can do about it.
Well, where's some AJP? Ryan?
In this example 'cause cut? That's.
Cut. He's a yeah, he's a he's like a
Buccaneer or something. He's cut.
I mean, I'm, I've been kind of waiting, 'cause I took a ton of
McLaughlin in the big board and I've been cooling off a little
bit as I'm like, are they, when is this cut happening?
No. But here's the thing.
This is like the reverse of the McKinnon situation, where like
last offseason we knew it's like McKinnon was going to be on the
team even when he was underdog, didn't even change his team
designation even when he was a free agent because it was so
obvious he was coming back. You don't take estimate in the
fourth round, then sign Watson and then be like when we really
like these guys, pass catching. If you're planning on having
Pieran on the team, I mean, maybe it's Javonte who's not
going to be on the team. Does he, like, hate this dude
like you? You should be cutting this guy
as soon as possible. If you're going to cut him,
don't have him sit around on your roster or he doesn't have a
chance to make another team like it.
It's kind of. He probably wants, he wants to
see if the guy the rookies can play.
He wants. To yeah, I think.
I think that's what it is. He wants to see SMA and Watson
in person and be like, OK, are they good enough?
We're gonna dump your eye. I mean it's 3 million in three.
Blake. Watson.
Some UDFA, they, they. Signed.
No. He was good in college though he
he. I don't know if I I don't know
anything about his combine, but I know that he was like he was
hey, if. If you go undrafted in this
class, I don't know that you were that good in college.
The Memphis running back bid's been pretty good, yeah.
That's. 50 I mean, 53 receptions.
It's not nothing, but yeah, it's.
Just small JP run. They can say it's not negligible
money. They can save $3,000,000 cutting
in. It's like what's what's the
point? But anyways, Hayden, tell the
people what's going on at at Underdog.
What content are you working on? Any other contest?
Anything you want to tease? Just in general, underdog we're
going to be releasing more different types of contests this
year, more price points than ever.
We could have made BBM bigger if we wanted to.
We decided to keep it the same so we can unlock some more
contests. So there will be something for
everybody out there. And then we'll be doing YouTube
shows about it on Underdog Fantasy.
So that's it. Awesome, Davis, what you got
going on in Take cast? Any more backup running backs
coming on the show or anything along those lines?
Maybe getting cokeefed on to do a whole podcast series on on
Sitting Bull. You know we'll see that's kind
of that's kind of in the works right now.
Yeah check out, check out all the stuff on.
If you guys want to see the programming that I'm wearing
this suit coat for, check out Sports Grade on your on your
Smart TV. Pat Legendary.
Upside. Any more tree articles coming
out? I'm done writing about trees in
the rainforest, but check that out if you that one was
completely free on legendaryupside.com.
Well, best ball strategy article called The Tree of Jacquard.
We've got underdog rankings, updated daily DraftKings
rankings, updated daily FFPC rankings are launching soon.
We're going to launch drafters rankings in a few weeks.
So a lot of great stuff over there.
And Speaking of underdog, we got a promo going where you can get
$50 and underdog credit if you sign up for a yearly
subscription. You go to
legendaryupside.com/perks to learn about that.
Awesome. Sounds good.
Hayden, thanks again for joining us.
We will be back. Yeah, be back next week, 3:30
PM. We'll see all of you guys then.
Peace.