1 00:00:01,960 --> 00:00:06,440 We are now through seven weeks of the NFL season and I've got 2 00:00:06,440 --> 00:00:10,920 good news and I've got bad news. The bad news is Chris Godwin is 3 00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:14,040 dead. The good news is there are lots 4 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:17,720 of really exciting wide receivers on the waiver wire 5 00:00:17,720 --> 00:00:20,040 this week. This is stat chasing. 6 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:23,920 Jalen McMillan is my official guest from the University of 7 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:41,880 Washington. Con a touchdown for McMillan go 8 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:47,800 dogs. We had to had to roll the 9 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:51,600 McMillan clip. Draco I I'm sure that he's going 10 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:55,160 to go for a pretty penny in in fab leagues. 11 00:00:56,680 --> 00:01:00,720 Yeah, Yeah, it is. It is wide receiver week on, on 12 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:03,160 the FOB waiver wire. So thought that would be a good, 13 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:07,560 a good maybe change up to talk about and and and maybe focus 14 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:11,640 more on this week. Yeah, I mean lots of our, our 15 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:16,600 favorite exciting rookie prospects are are now the key 16 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:18,800 pieces to target on the waiver wire this week. 17 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:22,960 We've got Jalen Mcmillian's, We have Rizzi Pearsall. 18 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:28,360 So very fun nicknames and and potentially good fantasy 19 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:30,760 production there, although I'm not. 20 00:01:30,960 --> 00:01:33,360 Troy Franklin, too. Troy Franklin. 21 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:37,440 Man, I, I know you really want Troy Franklin to happen, but 22 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:41,560 I'm, I'm pretty worried after, man, the worst thing that the 23 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:45,160 NFL could have done for our Bonex hope was to put the 24 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:48,560 Broncos on an island game. Because I got to watch every 25 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:50,560 single one of Bonex's past attempts. 26 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:57,800 And let me tell you that that whole pre season narrative, you 27 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:00,560 know, when we were talking about like, oh, how Bodex actually was 28 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:03,640 a pretty good deep passer. His numbers just got skewed. 29 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:07,000 His, you know, average yards per attempt got skewed because he 30 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:09,280 did all this like rinky dink check down stuff. 31 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:12,480 And if you filter that out, he's actually an insane deep ball 32 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:15,520 passer. Yeah, I think I'm done with the 33 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:19,160 If you filter out the majority of this guy's attempts, then he 34 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:22,560 actually looks like this type of analysis. 35 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:26,160 I don't think I'm buying that anymore. 36 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:30,320 The Well, if I really skew the data to make it look like what I 37 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:34,960 want to show, then he's actually good because I got to watch 38 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:36,560 Bonex and he's not actually good. 39 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:45,000 I mean the the my my counter. And I know we're not into charts 40 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:49,520 here, but Troy Franklin in particular, so they, they, they 41 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:53,960 kept his, his, his scaled up route percentage. 42 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:59,520 So he's at 67% and then he had a 27% targets per hour run, so. 43 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:02,880 No, yeah. Yeah, that's a good, that's a 44 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:06,120 good, that's a good rookie. That's a great rookie wide 45 00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:07,360 receiver story. Right. 46 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:12,480 Yeah, I to to be clear, none of none of what I'm saying is 47 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:16,200 negative about Troy Franklin, although he doesn't look super 48 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:18,880 great to me. I think a lot of the, you know, 49 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:21,720 the bullish metrics that we're seeing, I think is really just 50 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:24,400 coming down to the chemistry he has with Nix already. 51 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:29,240 But really I'm just I'm pretty concerned that Bonex stinks at 52 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:32,440 passing the ball. He seems like perfectly comulent 53 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:36,240 for what the Broncos need to do, which is like, hey, go out there 54 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:40,280 and like, when you miss on your throws, just make sure you're 55 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:43,400 missing into an area of the field where no one is not, not 56 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:46,480 your receivers, no defenders. Like throw it somewhere where 57 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:49,240 people who are watching the game will be like, how did you 58 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:51,240 possibly throw it to that area of the field? 59 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:52,800 You didn't even see anyone there. 60 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:55,720 It's like you're only throwing to the places with green grass. 61 00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:59,120 So that's fine, 'cause his mistakes aren't costly, they're 62 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:03,680 just comical. But yeah, that's that's the 63 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:07,240 thing I'm pretty worried about with Bonex, but it's not going 64 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:10,080 to stop me from playing him this week against the Carolina 65 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:12,120 Panthers. They've got the Panthers and 66 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:14,920 they've got the Ravens. So that's like a, that's I, I 67 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:18,320 mean, if you're looking for a spot start at at receiver, I 68 00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:22,160 think that's pretty interesting. Like, I, I, I at least I think 69 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:25,440 it's at least as interesting as the Yoder as the Yoder kind of 70 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:28,800 guys. Yeah, let's let's get into the 71 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:32,280 QB chart here so we have some context. 72 00:04:32,280 --> 00:04:35,600 We're talking about Bonex. Right. 73 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,840 Yeah, yeah, we'll, we'll go back to the after our segue, we'll go 74 00:04:38,840 --> 00:04:42,400 back to our normal kind of content schedule. 75 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:45,600 So we've got our QB volume and efficiency. 76 00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:49,920 We've got a volume on the horizontal axis from expected 77 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:53,160 points from passing, then adjusted yards per 10th with the 78 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:56,400 vertical axis, and then the size of the bubble corresponds to 79 00:04:56,400 --> 00:05:01,880 rushing yards per game. So I, I guess we can, we can 80 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:05,080 talk a little bit more about Bonex here, 'cause I do think 81 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:10,160 the matchup is interesting. You get the Carolina Panthers, 82 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:13,080 who have just looked absolutely dreadful on defense. 83 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:15,480 I mean, you, you pretty much can do whatever you want against the 84 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:19,280 Panthers. So if I was gonna throw any cold 85 00:05:19,280 --> 00:05:21,760 water on that, hey, this is a good matchup for Bonex. 86 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:25,440 The first piece of cold water would be, well, the Broncos can 87 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:27,560 do whatever they want and be successful. 88 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:30,040 And I think they'll probably just want to run the ball. 89 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:35,960 And then #2 is even if the defense is bad, the defense 90 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:39,720 being bad does not help Bonex put the ball on his target. 91 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:43,000 The defense was bad on Thursday night and he couldn't put the 92 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:46,400 ball on the target. And not even like on the target. 93 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:49,720 Like if we were, if we were talking like Bonex in a shooting 94 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:53,320 range and trying to hit, you know, the, the cut out of the 95 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:56,640 person, the silhouette, right? Like, you know, sometimes you, 96 00:05:56,720 --> 00:05:59,520 you, you know, you're off target, you hit the arm or 97 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:01,560 something, or oh, you weren't center mass. 98 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:03,400 You're like kind of kind of on the fringe. 99 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:07,960 Bonex is like hitting someone else's target halfway across the 100 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:10,960 shooting range like. You know who he didn't miss? 101 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:14,360 Who? Troy Franklin for seven. 102 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:20,760 He got 6 targets and oh shit, how many? 103 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:27,560 I, I actually, I shit, I fucked that up. 6 targets, 5 104 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:29,560 receptions. I knew, I knew it was a number 105 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:31,240 like that. So that's a pretty good 106 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:33,960 completion, right? What was what was the average 107 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:37,560 depth of target on those? Average depth of target was 108 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:39,480 about 8.8. OK. 109 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:42,080 So. Not, not. 110 00:06:42,160 --> 00:06:45,200 Pushing real passes. But they, yeah, they, they're 111 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:48,040 not like these little tiny, you know, at the line of scrimmage 112 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:49,600 or behind the line. Right, right, right. 113 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:51,600 They're wearing all bubble, bubble screens or stuff like 114 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:52,280 that. Yeah. 115 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:57,320 I mean, yeah, like I, I don't want to be too negative on Bonex 116 00:06:57,320 --> 00:07:01,760 'cause like I, I'll definitely, I'm, I'm interested in, it's 117 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:04,720 kind of hard to play Bonex this week, I think unless you're 118 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:08,080 playing like salary cap DFS, like if you're doing DraftKings. 119 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:11,240 I haven't looked at the slate at all on, on DraftKings yet. 120 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:13,000 So I don't know what Nyx's price is. 121 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:16,760 I would assume it's pretty low, but he would really only be 122 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:19,000 someone that I'm going to for salary relief. 123 00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:24,280 I think it's pretty hard to to play that game right bring back 124 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:27,480 too so. You're you're you're bringing me 125 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:32,480 right back on there on on track to the the bow next play, which 126 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:36,320 is perfectly reasonable. Yeah, He he's a he's a tough 127 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:37,480 play. He's a tough play. 128 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:43,080 The offense is is is not great. Overall, it does seem like they 129 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:45,640 trust him with the ball. So he he gets volume. 130 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:48,640 He does have rushing upside, which helps. 131 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:52,560 Like I think he's kind of like he's just your kind of classic 132 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:58,280 cheap rushing upside quarterback who can at A at a cheap price 133 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:02,760 tag can definitely get there. Yeah, I mean, maybe the more you 134 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:05,960 talk about it, if he's super cheap and Franklin is super 135 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:09,160 cheap, maybe he could talk me into like Nick's and Franklin. 136 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:12,760 You know, skinny Stack is just like major salary relief. 137 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:17,520 But I think I think we've probably spent plenty of time 138 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:21,920 discussing Bonex. But yeah, the the upside does 139 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:25,200 help another guy who's rushing upside helps. 140 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:28,480 We don't have to spend really any time on this guy, but I just 141 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:31,800 have to give him his flowers. Lamar Jackson is like so far and 142 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:34,520 away the MVP in the league. And I don't think it's 143 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:37,320 particularly close. Like Jaden Daniels had a really 144 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:41,039 fun stretch and honestly, like we can't take anything away from 145 00:08:41,039 --> 00:08:43,320 Daniels because he gets injured and knocked out early. 146 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:46,480 You know what should have been a game where he could go hang some 147 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:49,720 absolutely video game type numbers against the Panthers. 148 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:55,080 But I mean, Lamar is just so, so insane. 149 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:58,080 He's like far and away the QB one in my mind. 150 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:03,440 Real, real life in fantasy. Yeah, yeah, he's easily QB one 151 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:08,320 at Bonex 5600, by the way. OK, yeah, so cheap, but like, 152 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:12,120 probably not not cheap enough to make me super excited about it. 153 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,120 A guy that I am kind of interested in and I I haven't 154 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:19,000 like really let this one marinate all the way. 155 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:21,680 So I'm really interested in your opinion on this one. 156 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:26,240 But Joe Burrow, you know, kind of kind of like a ho hum day 157 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:29,920 against the Browns. I mean like he has a. 158 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:33,040 This is a tough matchup. This is a really tough matchup. 159 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:36,280 That you think the Eagle, The Eagles are a tough defense. 160 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:41,160 I mean, PFF thinks they'd be great pass the pass coverage 161 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:45,080 thinks they've got a big great pass rush and their pass rate 162 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:50,640 over expected is negative. So they run a lot and they're 163 00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:53,640 they're playing against a defense that is weak to the run. 164 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:59,160 And so you, you do have like, if I'm just looking at the numbers, 165 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:05,960 their past defense is good and they, they and, and they are 166 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:08,360 kind of a run funnel on on defense too. 167 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:11,760 So they're a run funnel and then they're a run heavy team. 168 00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:15,520 Bengals a run funnel. You're, you're talking about 169 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:18,120 Burrow with Chase and T Higgins like that. 170 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:22,680 That's pretty like strongly talented set. 171 00:10:22,680 --> 00:10:26,960 They're like, I, I, I never want to like be batting like against 172 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:32,600 those guys, but I think a lot of the contextual stuff is pretty 173 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:38,160 rough this week for the Bengals. Yeah, the the thing that I, that 174 00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:41,040 the, you know, biggest fly in the ointment for me in this 175 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:44,280 matchup is that the Eagles are run heavy and that the Bengals 176 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:46,360 can be run on. And that's that's the part that 177 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:48,800 concerns me the most is just that you lose the play volume 178 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:51,040 here. I actually think the Eagles past 179 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:56,120 defense might not be as good as PFF thinks because let me let me 180 00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:58,440 tell you who they played so far right. 181 00:10:59,560 --> 00:11:01,640 They play the Packers in their opening game. 182 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:03,640 Packers hanging 29 on them there. 183 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:06,120 Then they play the Falcons in Week 2. 184 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:09,360 This is all Kirk Cousins was still like you know they they 185 00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:11,880 were baby kid gloves on Kirk Cousins. 186 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:15,040 Then they play the Saints in week 3. 187 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:17,440 Not a not a passing juggernaut there. 188 00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:21,640 Then they play the Bucks and the Bucks just smoke them. 189 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:25,480 The Bucks absolutely dog walk them, put up 33 on them. 190 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:29,320 Then they play the Browns worst quarterback in the league and 191 00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:32,560 then they play the Giants, you know, also one of the worst 192 00:11:32,560 --> 00:11:36,040 quarterbacks in the league. So if we look at the people that 193 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:40,160 they've actually played, I see Daniel Jones, who's a bottom 194 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:42,560 left quadrant quarterback. I see Deshaun Watson. 195 00:11:42,560 --> 00:11:46,320 You don't think PFF are, are kind of like adjusting 'cause I 196 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:48,840 think that that's, to me, that's the big differentiator over 197 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:52,600 using PFF over some of the kind of like just overall metric, 198 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:57,320 like actual metrics. Like they're that, that that's 199 00:11:57,320 --> 00:12:00,080 kind of like the, the differentiary, like 49ers were 200 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:03,520 strong on the, on the kind of like actual metrics, but then 201 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:08,160 more mediocre on the PFF grade. And, and the way I was able to 202 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:10,640 explain that to myself was, well, they've actually had a 203 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:12,920 pretty soft schedule. You don't. 204 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:18,400 You're basically saying they're not adjusting to the quality of 205 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:21,360 opponent enough. I mean, the the way that they're 206 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:24,640 grading things or they're, you know, they're reviewing each 207 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:27,480 play, they're watching the film and they're assigning a grade to 208 00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:30,320 every player and then to the team on each play. 209 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:32,560 And so the context definitely matters. 210 00:12:32,560 --> 00:12:35,240 They're like, you know, you certainly can be adjusting for 211 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:39,080 the opponent, but like, if you're looking at like was was 212 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:43,200 this team, were the Eagles successful on this down at 213 00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:46,200 defending the pass? And like, you're just you're 214 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:49,200 going to have a higher success rate at defending the pass 215 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:53,840 against Daniel Jones and Deshaun Watson and Derek Carr when the 216 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:58,360 Saints refused to pass the ball. You know, and then the the thing 217 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,200 for me is like, when you've played the one, there's one 218 00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:05,600 quarterback here that they've played really, I guess 22 219 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:08,040 quarterbacks they've played that have been like competent to good 220 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:12,400 so far this season, and that was Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield. 221 00:13:12,880 --> 00:13:16,960 And in those games, the Eagles are giving up an average of over 222 00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:19,480 30 points. So I just think they might be a 223 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:21,880 little bit more mortal than the PFF numbers say. 224 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:25,520 But I think the game script stuff and them willing to just 225 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:30,440 keep the ball on the ground is enough to kind of, you know, 226 00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:33,840 make me a little hesitant to to really attack this game. 227 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:42,400 That that makes sense. The only a lot of these other 228 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:46,800 teams are also going pretty run heavy against the Eagles. 229 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:53,480 So they are a run funnel too like so to me that's a little 230 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:58,680 bit more evidence apart from the PFF grade that they're passing 231 00:13:58,680 --> 00:14:04,200 defenses is good. Yeah, I mean, some of these 232 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:07,720 teams like the Saints, don't. The Saints kind of seem like 233 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:10,440 they're closing their eyes and saying no, no, no, no, no, no, 234 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:12,920 you can't tell me not to run the ball and they're just running 235 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:17,240 the ball, right. And then Falcons again. 236 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:19,320 That was the Kirk Cousins kid gloves game. 237 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:23,200 The Bucks. I I I'd be interested to see the 238 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:24,840 Bucks. What was that? 239 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:27,800 Week 6? That was week. 240 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:32,920 Let's see, Week 4 was Bucks. Week 40, the week. 241 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:35,880 Oh, OK, well, that that was the one team that actually did pass 242 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:38,440 a lot against. Cause 'cause then the other ones 243 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:42,120 are the Browns. OK, yeah, like, and then the 244 00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:47,560 Giants and then the Giants were getting the shit kicked out of 245 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:50,640 them so bad that the fourth quarter was entirely all garbage 246 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:54,120 time. So but yeah, I, I really think 247 00:14:54,120 --> 00:15:00,000 that the Eagles run game is the thing that that really sours me 248 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:02,840 on this one. Not, not that it's a unplayable 249 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:06,600 game, but just, you know, I, I wanted to be excited about 250 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:09,560 Burrow. But yeah, I I think that's 251 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:11,480 helpful context. Yeah, that's fair. 252 00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:16,040 It's, it's their, their, their opponents have been, have been 253 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:21,600 weak and they they, they did get torn up by yeah, by the Bucks as 254 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:23,640 well. So that that that's pretty fair. 255 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:28,400 So I mean, if, if the Bucks can do it, then and so can the 256 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:30,760 Bengals. Yeah, yeah. 257 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:32,640 So I I think it's it's reasonable. 258 00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:35,800 It's probably not a all systems go spot like I was initially 259 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:38,960 thinking, right, just cause of the running stuff. 260 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:42,680 But I mean, you're really what it comes down to is like, can 261 00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:46,000 the Bengals get out to an early enough lead to where the Eagles 262 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:48,320 really feel like they've got to keep their foot on the gas and 263 00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:50,680 pass? And if they do, I think my 264 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:52,960 favorite way to play this game then is through A.J. 265 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:57,240 Brown, because A.J. Brown, if he were getting more 266 00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:01,920 volume would be incredible. I mean, when we get to the wide 267 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:04,800 receiver charts, I think you'll you'll see what I'm talking 268 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:07,920 about. But so yeah, I think I guess if 269 00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:10,840 I'm, if I'm taking. AJ yeah, I mean in Eagles lead 270 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:13,200 kills this game. Yeah, Eagles lead kills the 271 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:15,520 game. So yeah, getting getting to play 272 00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:17,880 it through like A.J. Brown with like a Bengals stack 273 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:21,280 kind of seems interesting to me. Yeah, Yeah, that makes sense for 274 00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:24,600 sure. That is, is that doable in the 275 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:27,560 dog bowl just for I? I'm pretty sure it's it's tough 276 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:31,920 to do. Yeah, Yeah, it's very doable. 277 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:33,360 A.J. Brown, you got to take in the 278 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:37,040 first round, but then you can pretty easily get T Higgins in 279 00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:40,080 the, you know, second or third there. 280 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:43,280 And then a lot of the quarterbacks are going really 281 00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:45,360 late, so you can get burned there. 282 00:16:46,520 --> 00:16:50,680 Yeah, can't, can't get Chase in there, but we'll we'll talk 283 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:54,240 about talk about Chase versus Higgins later, too. 284 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:55,720 There's some interesting stuff there. 285 00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:59,280 We talked about the Bucks and how they really took it to the 286 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:02,160 Eagles. We do need to talk about Baker 287 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:05,480 Mayfield, who's looking like one of the better quarterbacks in 288 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:09,800 the league and popping on our chart, man, major downgrade for 289 00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:13,079 him. So Godwin, I would assume 290 00:17:13,079 --> 00:17:14,760 Godwin's probably done for the season. 291 00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:16,880 I haven't seen anything. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 292 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:18,079 He's done. He's done. 293 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:22,240 Yeah, they're, they're saying indefinitely, but like, yeah, 294 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:23,760 I'm assuming that's done for the season. 295 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:27,160 Mike Evans, The most recent news I've seen is that he's gone 296 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,760 through Week 11, which is not good. 297 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:35,600 The but I mean he's an older, he's an older receiver who had 298 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:39,760 an aggravation of an existing hamstring strain that that's bad 299 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:41,400 context. That is bad. 300 00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:45,480 Odd context for recovery there. And who who who knows? 301 00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:49,080 And not to read too much into, you know, his reaction on the 302 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:52,840 field, but the hamstring, the pain from the injury was bad 303 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:55,360 enough that it made him drop a touchdown he had already caught. 304 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:59,000 And then also he writhed on the ground afterwards. 305 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:01,680 So it didn't look like a fun injury, definitely. 306 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:04,360 Not a grade one, it's a grade 2 at least. 307 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:08,120 Yeah, feel bad for Mike Evans. I mean, the fact that he was out 308 00:18:08,120 --> 00:18:10,960 there playing through, I'm sure that if you or I had that 309 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:14,240 hamstring injury, we'd be unable to get out of bed, you know, 310 00:18:15,120 --> 00:18:18,560 can't, can't tie our shoes. And Mike Evans is out there 311 00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:22,480 running routes and cooking DBS, scoring touchdowns right up 312 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:24,600 until the thing just explodes on him. 313 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:30,320 So, all right, that's, that's enough for the Baker downgrade. 314 00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:35,480 Just needed to to mention that, OK, this is an interesting spot 315 00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:38,600 this week that I, I think another quarterback that has 316 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:42,080 already played the Eagles and and coincidentally is right next 317 00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:44,400 to Baker on the chart, that's Jordan Love. 318 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:49,680 I mean, this is this is kind of the area of the chart, like guys 319 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:54,240 with high expected fantasy points from passing, but aren't 320 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:57,440 like super high up there in adjusted yards per attempt, you 321 00:18:57,440 --> 00:18:59,000 know, right around like the average. 322 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:03,720 This is where I really think we can target players for like a 323 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:08,440 big positive regression spot because they they're under the 324 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,040 radar enough. They haven't been like 325 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:13,480 exploding, but they're also have like the usage required to put 326 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:16,640 up good weeks. And Jordan Love is, you know, a 327 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:18,720 downfield passer. He's aggressive. 328 00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:23,760 The problem with the Packers is how do you know who to stack him 329 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:25,080 with? That's the difficult part. 330 00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:28,800 Yeah. The other thing is they are with 331 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:32,920 Jordan Love and they are a kind of like PRE pass rate over 332 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:38,640 expected neutral team. And so if they get a big lead 333 00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:44,000 then if they follow that trend then then the game a game strip 334 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:47,000 work that asks them to run the ball, they will run the ball. 335 00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:53,320 So you need either him to get there before that happens or the 336 00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:59,560 question is can the can the Jaguars push the the Packers? 337 00:20:00,360 --> 00:20:03,440 Yeah. And the the total is pretty 338 00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:05,000 high. I mean it's the highest total on 339 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:06,760 the slate and it's got a a good bit of. 340 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:09,880 Margin So Vegas thinks thinks the Jaguars can push the 341 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:11,800 Packers. Is that that's what that means. 342 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,080 But but having watched the Jaguars, I don't know that I 343 00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:19,400 believe that, right? Yeah. 344 00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:23,760 It's, I mean, really here. Here's the crazy thing, this 345 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,840 game is just going to be extremely volatile because both 346 00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:29,160 of these passers have deep A dots. 347 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,920 I kind of, I kind of like the Trevor Lawrence side of it too, 348 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:36,720 because I feel like you're a little bit more insulated in 349 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:42,000 that the Jaguars are probably going to have to pass because I 350 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,680 I don't really see them getting a, a big lead over the Packers 351 00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,680 and being able to control the ball or control the game through 352 00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:51,880 the run game. So I kind of like Lawrence. 353 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,400 I think he's a little interesting here and he's just 354 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:55,880 going to be super volatile, right? 355 00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:59,320 It's if he's connecting on these deep shots, then it's going to 356 00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:00,040 be. Good. 357 00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:04,240 And if not, then whatever you're going to lose anyway. 358 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:08,360 So what are what are your thoughts on on boards here? 359 00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:15,080 So just that I'm going to look up his, I'm going to look up 360 00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:20,160 his, his draftking salary. So it's dropping salary 5600. 361 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:25,000 We like that. And if you look at the spread of 362 00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:29,800 that game, it's only 4 1/2. So Vegas is saying that, hey, 363 00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:31,560 this isn't going to be some kind of blowout. 364 00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:33,480 So they're going to have to keep pace. 365 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:39,920 And so hang on, Lawrence is 5600 and I think you said Bo Nix is 366 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:40,520 50. Six. 367 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:41,840 Yeah, yeah, they're the same price. 368 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:46,960 Oh my God. I mean wow, seems seems like a a 369 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:51,280 punt QB kind of week then. So I think those are both viable 370 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:55,120 options. Drake May is 5500. 371 00:21:56,000 --> 00:22:00,200 Yeah, the I, I would be really excited for Drake May just 372 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:04,080 'cause I, I want to hammer this before, you know, before 373 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:07,360 everyone catches on. I think maybe you get a little 374 00:22:07,360 --> 00:22:10,560 bit of Drake May flying under the radar just because, number 375 00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:14,720 one, he's on the patriots #2 his second game was the the island 376 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:18,080 game in London. And so it's early, you know, 377 00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:20,000 maybe not everyone's watching that game. 378 00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:25,320 So I, I think you, there's still a little bit of time left before 379 00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:28,840 everyone's on to Drake May. But I mean, he's been very 380 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,520 friendly for fantasy. The problem is it's against The 381 00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:36,520 Jets and The Jets just play so painfully slow. 382 00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,400 I I'm just and also I'm concerned that they might not 383 00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:42,800 even be able to put up points against the Patriots. 384 00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:47,160 So you might might end up with the Patriots and Jess just 385 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:50,920 willing to run the ball back and forth into each other as they 386 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:52,800 settle for a bunch of. Goals or something. 387 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:56,240 I, I, I, I, I Honestly, I think there's going to be risk just to 388 00:22:56,240 --> 00:23:02,080 to playing Drake May every week. Yeah, just because the the team 389 00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:08,680 stinks as as as good as he has played or for fantasy the team 390 00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:10,920 stinks. So that's always going to be 391 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:19,160 tough and it but it is interesting that you have you 392 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:23,760 have all of these kind of punt options that are looking pretty 393 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:27,280 playable. And I I guess that kind of sets 394 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:32,280 it, that probably sets it up for a true and punt week in in the 395 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,400 in the dog bowl as well. If you have a lot of these 396 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:39,680 players that are kind of like Bow, Nix is probably undrafted. 397 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:42,800 Oh, yeah, there's Trevor. Trevor Lawrence is undrafted. 398 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:46,480 Trevor Lawrence is undrafted. Tua is mostly undrafted. 399 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,040 You know, you, you get a lot of a lot of guys. 400 00:23:49,120 --> 00:23:52,680 I mean are are there, there's no buys this week, correct? 401 00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,200 I think last week was the week with the no buy. 402 00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:58,960 No, no no, last week had a bunch of buys last. 403 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:00,160 Oh, you're right, you're right, you're right. 404 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:01,840 You're right. This week is a week with no. 405 00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:07,600 Buys yeah, so it's a so I think this is so so there's a couple 406 00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:12,720 dynamics with the draft style weekly and daily games that are 407 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,160 very different than salary cap games. 408 00:24:16,120 --> 00:24:20,280 When you get the bye weeks, the the heavy bye weeks, especially 409 00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:26,560 a A big part of the edge comes from knowing of all of these 410 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:29,680 gross options that you end up having to fill out the the back 411 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:33,560 of your lineups with, you know who are the best gross options. 412 00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:38,240 The the scrolling down stuff becomes less potent in those by 413 00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:41,760 weeks, not because like, you know, you still want to find 414 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:45,240 guys that are going on, you know, undrafted in every draft 415 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:49,400 like that's still valuable. It's just that you wind up with 416 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:53,960 everyone has bad players as their their last player, you 417 00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:55,120 know, you just end up. Right. 418 00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:56,920 Like think you're thinking about it. 419 00:24:56,920 --> 00:25:01,240 If you have, let's say you have a week with six teams on by, you 420 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:06,000 have the the Thursday night game, the Sunday night game, and 421 00:25:06,120 --> 00:25:08,040 sometimes there's two Monday night games. 422 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:15,000 So that's what that's 1/2 and. The London game too, so like you 423 00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:20,360 get. 11 yeah so that's 17 teams out of 32 out of the pool so 424 00:25:20,360 --> 00:25:24,000 you're down to 15 at potential quarterbacks. 425 00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,760 So only tree go actually undrafted every draft. 426 00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:33,560 And so you're actually having to like prioritize which, which 427 00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:40,280 last QB do you want, whereas this there's no, there's no so 428 00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,840 it's probably closer to 20 actual quarterbacks. 429 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:47,400 And so you, you, you really have kind of options galore there. 430 00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:52,480 The, the, so the tricky thing is basically that it's kind of like 431 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:58,320 a, it's like a barbell type situation where some of the 432 00:25:58,360 --> 00:26:03,040 elite QBs, the ones that'll project extremely well will be 433 00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:07,680 in the optimal lineup at a rate that you, that they cannot be 434 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:09,600 drafted at 'cause it'll be higher than now. 435 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:13,320 This is in the, in the 12 man's, not the six man's where you can 436 00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:17,960 get up to, you know, 16% of a player that the, the six man's 437 00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:19,560 don't have this dynamic quite as much. 438 00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:23,720 But the 12 man's like you can end up with a quarterback who's 439 00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:27,120 going to be optimal so frequently that you should just 440 00:26:27,120 --> 00:26:30,880 slam them even if they're expensive because they are 441 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:35,040 optimal 12% of the time and they can't be drafted more than 8 442 00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:39,080 1/3% of the time, right? And then when you get to the 443 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,680 other end of the spectrum, you're going to end up with a 444 00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:45,840 bunch of quarterbacks that are optimal, like 4%, five percent, 445 00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:49,240 3% of the time, right? But then you end up with some of 446 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:53,160 those only being drafted 1% of the time or 2% of the time 447 00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:57,200 compared to the people that are drafted, you know, five, six, 8% 448 00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:01,400 of the time. And so these, these slates with 449 00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:07,400 a lot of teams on them, the scrolling down I think is, I 450 00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,120 mean, there are lots of really good flex options and tight end 451 00:27:10,120 --> 00:27:13,440 punt options as well. But I just I do like getting the 452 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,400 quarterback. Scroll down options there, 453 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,680 especially if you're, if you're pairing a low drafted 454 00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:21,840 quarterback, like here's a here's a disgusting one. 455 00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:24,760 Say that you take Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk. 456 00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:32,440 That combination might exist 50 times in the dog bowl, maybe 50 457 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:36,480 times, you know, less than 1% it like for for certain Christian 458 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,240 Kirk and Trevor Lawrence will exist less than 1% in the dog 459 00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:42,080 bowl this week, even after I'm talking about it right here 460 00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:45,040 because you have to scroll so far for Christian Kirk and 461 00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:46,480 Trevor Lawrence is going undrafted. 462 00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:51,400 So like, I don't, I don't love that one 'cause I I would rather 463 00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:54,480 play it through Brian Thomas. But like if you can find one 464 00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:58,040 like that where you're getting a quarterback that goes undrafted 465 00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:01,680 with a flex option that goes relatively undrafted and you're 466 00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:05,960 not giving up too much, that's probably one of the better ways 467 00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:12,840 to get a big edge this week. Yeah, that, that, that's great, 468 00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:21,480 great helpful information. Here's another guy that I'm I'm 469 00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:25,160 interested in just because we finally saw a change for him. 470 00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:27,640 And so this was a quarterback that everyone is super excited 471 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:31,000 about heading into the season because he's been elite for his 472 00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:32,880 his entire career. He's been one of the best 473 00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:35,360 fantasy quarterbacks. That's Josh Allen. 474 00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:41,160 But this season, I mean, prior, prior to last week, he had never 475 00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,760 had over 30 attempts. This season, like the, the 476 00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:47,920 attempts are just so, so low that it was really, really 477 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:50,400 hurting his overall fantasy production. 478 00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:54,720 You're just getting floor outcomes much lower than what 479 00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:57,760 we've seen even be possible historically for Josh Allen. 480 00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:00,200 And that really changes the profile. 481 00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:04,520 You know, so much of Josh Allen's appeal was his floor was 482 00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:08,960 so high and so safe. Like you really you you had such 483 00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:13,520 a consistently high floor, but. This week was different, right? 484 00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:16,400 This week was different and they passed a lot they had. 485 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:19,440 I believe it was obviously their season high attempts. 486 00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,080 I believe they got up to 33 this week. 487 00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:25,920 And it was and it was plus 10% over expected. 488 00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:29,480 So it wasn't I, I initially wondered if it was because 489 00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:33,960 they're down against the Titans, but that is not the case. 490 00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:36,680 It they actually passed above their expectation. 491 00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,800 And to me, such a drastic change. 492 00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:43,600 And and it's not like that that's such a drastic change. 493 00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:45,440 And it's not like the Titans are pass funnel. 494 00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,760 Like it's not like that's a game fund that you go in for this 495 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:52,720 specific opponent. That that does make me wonder 496 00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:56,800 that after a couple of rough outings, if they've actually 497 00:29:57,240 --> 00:29:59,880 gone back and said, no, we're we're not, we're not doing the 498 00:29:59,880 --> 00:30:02,160 run thing anymore. We're trading for a Murray 499 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,360 Cooper and we're opening things up. 500 00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:09,880 I actually, I obviously we need more than a week, but in, in the 501 00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:15,120 kind of short sample stuff, I think that's a pretty and like 502 00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:17,840 in, in, in the idea where you need to play it before you see 503 00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:19,560 it. I I think that's kind of 504 00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:24,000 compelling, actually. Yeah, the as I think through it, 505 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:27,800 you know, the Titans have a pretty strong run defense. 506 00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:31,240 And you know, James Cook was active in this game, you know, 507 00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:33,040 allegedly fully healthy off the toe. 508 00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:34,360 He didn't miss the previous week. 509 00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,760 So he's probably not 100%, but, you know, he was good to go. 510 00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:41,440 So maybe that was enough for them to to go away from the run 511 00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,120 a little bit. And then you factor in the Amari 512 00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:44,880 Cooper stuff that they wanna you. 513 00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,440 Know Drake Davis was great though in his absence. 514 00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,600 Yeah, Ray, Ray Davis was good, but then Ray Davis was also 515 00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:54,280 banged up this week too. So you have Ray Davis question 516 00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,440 true, questionable. He was he was like potentially 517 00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,520 going to miss. And then you have cook off of 518 00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:01,960 the injury. I'm wondering if their running 519 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,680 backs weren't full strength. And that's part of the reason. 520 00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:08,560 The other the other reason why I'm like hesitant to say, Oh 521 00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:10,840 yeah, the Bills like figured it out. 522 00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:13,560 The Bills are paying attention and self scouting and realizing 523 00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:16,080 like we cannot keep doing this if we want to be a competitive 524 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:18,560 NFL team. The reason I'm hesitant to do 525 00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,880 that is you have to be so fucking stupid to get to this 526 00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:25,160 point and run the way that they're running that I think 527 00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:28,920 they might be too stupid to do that and realize like we 528 00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:30,280 probably should pass a little more. 529 00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:33,640 Now the Amari Cooper trade is decent evidence that like they 530 00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:35,600 maybe they did want to pass a little more. 531 00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,520 I'm just like, how did you get here? 532 00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:41,160 But how did how did it take this long? 533 00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:46,080 You know, so I'm I'm worried that I might be, you know, wish 534 00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:48,960 casting here and being like, oh, finally I can play the bills 535 00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:50,160 again. The Bills are gonna pass. 536 00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,360 Josh Allen is is back for fantasy. 537 00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:53,840 Right. It's it's not, it's not the 538 00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:58,160 biggest you need to see. With just the one week you can 539 00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,440 explain in the way with it just being one week, you can explain 540 00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,320 it away, but I think it's something to pay attention to. 541 00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:06,400 It's, it's definitely something to pay attention to. 542 00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:10,640 The the thing that's hard for me is like if I was getting a big 543 00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:13,360 discount on Josh Allen, I'd be willing to do the play it before 544 00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:14,840 you see it thing. OK, OK. 545 00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:16,800 Yeah, Yeah, yeah. That, that makes sense where 546 00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:20,720 you're still, you're actually in the context of still paying old 547 00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:26,880 Josh Allen price then the chance of getting old Josh Allen. 548 00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:30,320 It doesn't make sense to pay full price for just a chance. 549 00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:33,840 Yeah, let me let me look at where he's been going. 550 00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:39,880 Let's see here. And you're still paying old Josh 551 00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,720 Allen price on on DraftKings as well. 552 00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,160 Yeah. So let's see that's. 553 00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:50,840 And so maybe honestly, maybe this isn't just isn't actionable 554 00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:53,040 information. So yeah, he goes. 555 00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:57,200 He went at pick 17 and this dog bowl. 556 00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:59,360 What about this one when it pick 4? 557 00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:00,960 And where? Where does? 558 00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:10,000 Where's that relative to lemur? Let's see Mar Lamar went pick 15 559 00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:11,040 and. OK. 560 00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:17,320 So, so yeah, maybe we don't need to focus too much on on, on this 561 00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:19,760 for, for, for the quarterback part, because I don't think this 562 00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:22,000 is actionable. Like if you have them on your 563 00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:24,000 team and redraw if you're starting them, right. 564 00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:28,040 But and the but the I and I guess the, the, the more 565 00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:31,080 important context of what I was saying of like playing it before 566 00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:34,120 you see it, you still have to pay the old price. 567 00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:37,880 You should not pay the old price to get the chance of it. 568 00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:43,000 But we're we're willing to adjust our priors here if we, if 569 00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,680 I see it again, if I see the bills come out and they're 570 00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:49,000 passing, you know, they've got a positive PROE again. 571 00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:52,760 I'm like, I'm ready to adjust quickly right 'cause? 572 00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:55,920 Right, two right it's it's interesting signal. 573 00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:59,800 Yeah, 2 events that are like drastically different than what 574 00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:04,320 we've seen so far in the season to me is like a big enough 575 00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:07,200 deviation to where it's like, OK, this is probably serious. 576 00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:09,560 Now. The reason I was so interested 577 00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:13,560 in it too is they get the Seahawks who are just like, oh, 578 00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,000 they're a dream fantasy matchup because they're they're going to 579 00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:17,719 play fast, they're going to pass the ball. 580 00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,239 Their defense hasn't been spectacular. 581 00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:25,159 So I mean, I know they they got a lot of turnover. 582 00:34:25,159 --> 00:34:29,000 They generated some turnovers this week, but yeah, I, I 583 00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:31,360 wanted, I really wanted to be able to play Josh Allen this 584 00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:33,120 week. I'm just, I'm worried that I 585 00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:36,360 don't think the market's going to let me in draft style formats 586 00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:41,120 and I I assume it's expensive in salary cap as well, but we 587 00:34:41,159 --> 00:34:43,080 think. Unless you get like if you got 588 00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:47,920 like 2% ownership Josh Allen. Yeah, yeah. 589 00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:51,800 Then then that's the situation. But it it's Tuesday, we we don't 590 00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:52,960 have that. Yeah. 591 00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:57,920 OK. Moving on, all right, I, I, we 592 00:34:57,920 --> 00:34:59,520 need to talk about Russell Wilson. 593 00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:03,520 He's he's on the chart. He's here in the upper right 594 00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:07,960 hand quadrant of the chart. And I've seen a lot of discourse 595 00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:10,680 about how Russ was so much better for the offense than 596 00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:13,240 Justin Fields. And he's like clearly the better 597 00:35:13,240 --> 00:35:14,880 quarterback and the better passer. 598 00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:18,760 And I mean, I, I've intentionally not engaged with 599 00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:23,600 it because I feel like if you actually watch that game and 600 00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:27,240 that's how you feel, you're probably not like a very logical 601 00:35:27,240 --> 00:35:32,240 or, or reasonable observer. But it's been a really, I, I'm 602 00:35:32,240 --> 00:35:36,520 viewing it as a huge positive because it's allowing me to make 603 00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:40,400 mental notes on people as unserious analysts. 604 00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:43,160 So like, if someone is out here telling me like Russell Wilson 605 00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:45,560 was a good quarterback, he looked so good. 606 00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:48,600 Like I immediately know that I never have to listen to anything 607 00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:52,320 you say again because you're not being you're just not being 608 00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:55,000 genuine with your analysis or like you're not watching a game. 609 00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,520 There's something, there's something wrong in your process 610 00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:00,920 to where you're telling me something that's just so clearly 611 00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:04,240 inaccurate that I can immediately be marked safe from 612 00:36:04,240 --> 00:36:06,200 all of your future shitty and Elsa's. 613 00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:09,160 That was my my Russell Wilson rant. 614 00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:11,320 Curious on your thoughts on his performance. 615 00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:17,240 So I mean, the way he got there this week was kind of choking at 616 00:36:17,240 --> 00:36:23,040 the two Pickens and Pickens made those plays. 617 00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:27,720 I think that's kind of been the Pickens role for most of the 618 00:36:27,720 --> 00:36:31,160 year that it it they've kind of phased them in and out like 619 00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:33,360 that, that they had that weird game where they only played them 620 00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:37,360 on 65% of routes. And but it's kind of been his 621 00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:40,520 role where he's he's like the person that they that they throw 622 00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:44,360 deep to his targets for a run has actually been pretty strong 623 00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:48,120 and and and his A dot has been good. 624 00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:54,720 So that like, I guess that's Pickens role and to me it's that 625 00:36:54,720 --> 00:36:58,680 that's more about the spikiness of of that kind of role where 626 00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:01,640 when you connect on the deep shots, you look fantastic. 627 00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:08,000 And then the the Steelers, they had, they had the lead and so 628 00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:10,880 it's not like they have to pass it on. 629 00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:15,120 They did have 31 drop backs and but nothing crazy. 630 00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:21,440 And then but the, the, yeah, the QB is going to be in, in control 631 00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:27,880 there when you have that lead. And, but I know that I, I, I do 632 00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:33,560 remember when, when we talked about it, that there was 2 633 00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:37,480 passes that were pretty close to interceptions or, or 5050 be 634 00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,480 interceptions. And so you, when you're looking 635 00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:44,800 at this kind of sample size of like a 3030 thirty drop backs, I 636 00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:48,360 think it's like 28 attempts or something like that. 637 00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:53,040 You, you can like, it's stuff like that that makes you have to 638 00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:57,680 think, OK, there, this is a very small sample size. 639 00:38:00,240 --> 00:38:05,000 So you can't get too carried away with the, with the insane 640 00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:07,680 efficiency. It is pretty insane efficiency 641 00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:11,880 and I I didn't watch the game as closely as you did. 642 00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:16,880 And so maybe mark me as as somebody who not a non ball nor 643 00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:23,200 a non ball watcher. And but I, I, I think that a lot 644 00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:29,160 of it is the spikiness of of Pickens and that connected and 645 00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:34,040 you, you also, you had a you had the team in control for a lot of 646 00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:36,840 the game. And then were games were were 647 00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:40,640 those miss and then the Steelers are behind. 648 00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:43,880 I think that's a much tougher context and much tougher 649 00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:48,840 environment for that to work. Is that that's kind of what I 650 00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:51,080 think. And I guess it's more helpful 651 00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:54,840 for it's a little bit more helpful for for the the weapons 652 00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:59,680 that slightly more attempts will will turn into drop backs. 653 00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,360 Actually don't think that the difference is going to be that 654 00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:06,320 meaningful. Like now Fields is attempts to 655 00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:09,440 drop back rate was has actually been high enough this year. 656 00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:13,680 And then Russell Wilson is also somebody who who struggled with 657 00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:20,480 Sax's entire career. So and yeah, that that that's, 658 00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:23,680 that's kind of my overall take away on this stuff. 659 00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:26,840 Yeah, I I think that's pretty well put. 660 00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:30,200 I mean, George Pickens looked like one of the very best 661 00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:33,000 receivers in the NFL during that game. 662 00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:36,000 I mean, he was. Go ahead, Sorry. 663 00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:40,440 He he was absolutely mossing defenders like and so the two 664 00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:43,240 plays that I'm thinking of where they're absolute prayer balls, 665 00:39:43,240 --> 00:39:46,640 like they're poorly thrown, they're under thrown by a good 666 00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:48,560 bit. George Pickens is coming back 667 00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:52,480 and leaping over a defender making acrobatic catches to get 668 00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:55,080 these. Let's just, let's just call them 669 00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:58,200 5050 balls 'cause that's, I mean, that's what they were. 670 00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:00,720 I would not be surprised if the defender had a higher 671 00:40:00,720 --> 00:40:03,840 probability of catching the ball then Pickens on at least one of 672 00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:06,800 those. But let's just take those two, 673 00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:10,880 which I believe were like roughly 40 yard completions for 674 00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:13,760 each of those. So you get those if those go the 675 00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:16,400 other way. You're looking at an 80 yard 676 00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:18,640 swing just on losing the completions. 677 00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:21,240 And then if we're adjusting this adjusted yards per attempt 678 00:40:21,240 --> 00:40:24,840 formula and saying like, oh, actually in another just as 679 00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:28,080 plausible outcome, he throws 2 interceptions instead of those 680 00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:30,440 two completions. Well, interceptions are worth 681 00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:33,600 -45 yards in the adjusted yards per attempt formula. 682 00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:38,440 So we're talking about Russell Wilson losing 170 yards, and 683 00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:41,400 when you've got what, how, how many attempts did he have? 684 00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:44,480 Just under 30, right? 2029 attempts. 685 00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:46,880 So, so you're talking about Russell Wilson losing 686 00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:50,120 approximately 6 yards in adjusted yards per attempt. 687 00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:54,480 So he'd be down at right about four, AKA the very worst 688 00:40:54,480 --> 00:40:57,520 quarterback in the league if George Picket, if George Pickens 689 00:40:57,520 --> 00:41:00,560 is not George Pickens, if that was Van Jefferson down there 690 00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:02,680 instead. Russell Wilson is below Will 691 00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:04,680 Levis by like a country mile right now. 692 00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:08,000 So. But I guess the other way to 693 00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:11,840 look at it is those wouldn't be picks 100% of the time, right? 694 00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:14,800 Eater. But that that's just more kind 695 00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:18,400 of the, the, the spikiness of this range showing this low 696 00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:23,320 stuff. And my, my, my actual first 697 00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:26,760 reaction, like I was trying to play devil's reaction, devil's 698 00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:30,680 advocate with myself was, well, these are just Russell Wilson 699 00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:33,280 moon balls. Maybe they're not as accurate as 700 00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:37,280 as we'd like, but what if Pickens just catches? 701 00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:40,000 What if Pickens makes the acrobatic catches on the moon 702 00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:41,840 balls? And like, that's kind of what 703 00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:43,240 happens for the next couple of games. 704 00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:48,120 Like, we hate it. It's it looks bad for us, but he 705 00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:50,240 just gets that bailout from Pickens. 706 00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:53,480 Yeah, I don't think that's outside the realm of 707 00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:57,120 possibilities. I just, I, I also don't think 708 00:41:57,120 --> 00:42:00,360 that it's very different than having fields in there throwing 709 00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:02,760 moon balls to, you know, like. Right, right, right. 710 00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:05,440 No, I don't, I don't, I don't think this game is a sign that 711 00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:10,480 Russ is good. And it's just more, you know, he 712 00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:14,840 he could put up, he could put up another big day. 713 00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:20,760 But I think the point is this is the higher end if if you're 714 00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:23,200 looking at volatile outcomes, this is the higher end of it. 715 00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:28,080 And you you're looking at the high end right now, there's 716 00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:30,520 probable heavy regression coming. 717 00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:35,800 Yeah, yeah, absolutely, man. Speaking of a guy with some 718 00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:40,560 heavy regression coming, Brock Purdy, just his weapons are 719 00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:43,680 dropping like flies. Brandon Iuke, terrible ACL 720 00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:46,840 injury. Devo Samuel, bad case of 721 00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:51,280 pneumonia, hospitalized George Kittle has a foot injury he's 722 00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:53,680 dealing with and he's been peppered on the injury report 723 00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:57,720 pretty much every week that so far through the season he's he's 724 00:42:57,720 --> 00:43:00,240 gutting it out because that guy's a Viking warrior. 725 00:43:00,240 --> 00:43:06,120 But man, now here's The funny thing, Purdy, while he was bad 726 00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:08,960 for real life football to actually put up a reasonable 727 00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:11,320 fantasy day without all his guys. 728 00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:15,480 So I, I don't know what are your, what are your thoughts on 729 00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:20,920 Purdy here going forward in the depleted 49ers? 730 00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:25,640 Yeah, obviously losing, losing the good receivers hurts a lot. 731 00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:30,640 And I do think that, and I remember saying this last week 732 00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:35,360 that the the Chiefs was a bad match up for him because their 733 00:43:35,360 --> 00:43:40,680 pass rush is so good. The the 49ers still do have a 734 00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:44,640 they have a strong like a good to strong offensive line 735 00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:48,680 overmatched by the Chiefs, but won't be in most, most games. 736 00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:55,240 And so I can see, I can see the time that they buy him meaning 737 00:43:55,240 --> 00:44:00,920 and combined with the Shannon Shannon scam and scheme meaning 738 00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:02,760 that you still get pretty good production. 739 00:44:02,760 --> 00:44:05,920 It won't be the top ends that that we've been kind of used to 740 00:44:06,240 --> 00:44:09,640 with all those weapons and but I can still see it being pretty 741 00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:12,600 good. Yeah, I would. 742 00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:16,000 And I would still expect. I don't think his expected 743 00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:18,720 fantasy points are going to change all that much. 744 00:44:18,720 --> 00:44:21,200 I don't see the, you know, when, when Christian McCaffrey comes 745 00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:24,480 back, maybe they're willing to run the ball a little more 746 00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:27,680 heavily and you see his expected fantasy points go down a tiny 747 00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:29,800 bit. But the 49ers always want to run 748 00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:32,400 the ball. So I I just expect his adjusted 749 00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:34,200 yards per attempt to go down a little bit. 750 00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:38,120 But I, I still think he's he's fine for fantasy. 751 00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:40,800 He's just, yeah. You're you're not going to get 752 00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:44,040 the Debo well until Debo comes back, you're not going to get 753 00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:48,840 the Debo catches a slant like Paris, true, true guys and then 754 00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:53,840 houses it right. But he gets they give him so 755 00:44:53,840 --> 00:44:57,880 much time that he probably will find a way to to make it work 756 00:44:57,880 --> 00:44:59,960 with these other guys. Yeah. 757 00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:03,200 All right. I've got one last question on 758 00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:05,400 the quarterback chart here before we move on. 759 00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:11,840 Pat Mahomes has had a really, really poor start to this 760 00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:17,320 fantasy season, crushing in the QB wins statistic, but we 761 00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:19,640 unfortunately do not get fantasy points for that. 762 00:45:20,200 --> 00:45:24,280 So I want to just rapid fire ask you some quarterback. 763 00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:29,160 Yeah, I, I have a more kind of general, I, I, I'm sorry to my 764 00:45:29,440 --> 00:45:35,000 more general point about Mahomes is I think the way you have to 765 00:45:35,000 --> 00:45:37,960 look at them is a low efficiency pocket passer. 766 00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:42,600 And you do get some rushing, you do get a little bit of rushing. 767 00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:46,840 So maybe that's a bit unfair, but it's not a huge amount. 768 00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:51,920 And I know you had the rushing touchdown and this week, but 769 00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:55,640 that that's not kind of the typical, Yeah. 770 00:45:56,480 --> 00:45:58,440 And so. Alpha plays. 771 00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:01,920 Mahomes is is also crushing because that rushing touchdown 772 00:46:01,920 --> 00:46:05,240 this week was so sick where he just absolutely trucks a 49ers 773 00:46:05,240 --> 00:46:09,920 defender and stands over him. Man, that was a big, big, big 774 00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:13,600 alpha energy. Yeah, yeah, for sure. 775 00:46:15,080 --> 00:46:17,440 But I think that's the way you kind of have to look at him 776 00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:21,560 where he's not. I, I, I haven't looked at 777 00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:23,600 projections actually at all this year. 778 00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:31,040 But I, I don't think, I don't think, I don't see how he can 779 00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:33,440 project Mahomes for a good amount of points. 780 00:46:34,240 --> 00:46:38,120 No, yeah, he's I would I'd consider him basically 781 00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:42,040 unplayable like on a on a dog bowl slate here. 782 00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:44,400 Here's some quarterbacks. I want to know if you would 783 00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:48,280 start these guys over Mahomes in Week 8 and just we'll just quit. 784 00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:53,040 Yes, no em Geno Smith. I think so. 785 00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:55,360 Joe Burrow. Yeah. 786 00:46:56,320 --> 00:47:01,280 Dak Prescott. That one's closer to 5050. 787 00:47:02,120 --> 00:47:06,760 Bonex. And another one where it pretty 788 00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:09,120 close to 5050. Drake May. 789 00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:17,640 I I think, I think I'd probably start May Russell Wilson. 790 00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:20,600 Yeah. I, I you, you, you have to start 791 00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:22,400 Mahomes over shoot. Me. 792 00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:25,520 I would start Russell Wilson over Mahomes. 793 00:47:26,280 --> 00:47:28,960 Man, but oh how the mighty have fallen. 794 00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:33,400 I I personally will be starting Drake May over Pat Mahomes on a 795 00:47:33,800 --> 00:47:38,240 an FFPC Fantasy Pros league for the second week in a row. 796 00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:41,320 I I did it this last week as well and felt felt great about 797 00:47:41,320 --> 00:47:43,040 it. All right. 798 00:47:43,040 --> 00:47:45,760 We can move on to the running back charts now, unless you have 799 00:47:45,760 --> 00:47:48,280 anyone else on the quarterback chart you wanted to talk about? 800 00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:53,360 No, no. So we've got the running back 801 00:47:53,360 --> 00:47:58,440 snaps and usage chart here. We've got we've got everything 802 00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:01,560 here is at a percentage of the team's total plays. 803 00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:06,120 So of those plays which were rush attempts, which were routes 804 00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:09,960 for that receivers, which were pass blocking, because we do 805 00:48:09,960 --> 00:48:12,120 want to see who's trusted with the pass blocking. 806 00:48:12,400 --> 00:48:15,040 And then just to round it out. So you see their full snapshare 807 00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:21,680 is that is run blocking. And I see you're, you're just to 808 00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:24,360 keep us rolling here. Your first note on the usage 809 00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:26,800 chart was Breeze all the way back. 810 00:48:27,720 --> 00:48:31,760 And what one one thing I kind of knows noticed about Breece is 811 00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:35,800 that his his snap share was pretty high this week. 812 00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:39,960 And I mean, I mean, look up the I I should have been ready with 813 00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:43,000 the exact number, but it was much higher than previous weeks. 814 00:48:43,320 --> 00:48:45,880 And I do wonder if that's because The Jets were chasing 815 00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:49,760 the game and he's their kind of like primary passing down back. 816 00:48:51,200 --> 00:48:54,520 But he also played great, right? Yeah, I mean, it was high the 817 00:48:54,520 --> 00:48:58,680 last two weeks. It's really just been since the 818 00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:02,200 the head coaching change, the offensive coordinator change. 819 00:49:02,200 --> 00:49:07,400 But yeah, I mean, really, the here's the problem with Bruce is 820 00:49:07,400 --> 00:49:10,560 their offensive line stinks. And so you're. 821 00:49:10,760 --> 00:49:11,760 Right. You're right. 822 00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:14,960 It's high the last two weeks since the the offensive coach 823 00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:16,960 change, which that's a big difference. 824 00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:20,200 You're, you're losing a ton of the value that he could be 825 00:49:20,200 --> 00:49:23,000 giving you in the running game just because of how how poor 826 00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:25,920 their offensive line is. So that's troubling. 827 00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:31,240 The good news is he's such an incredible pass catcher number 828 00:49:31,240 --> 00:49:36,840 #1 he is, he is very legitimately great at actually 829 00:49:36,840 --> 00:49:39,720 catching the ball, running routes like operating as a 830 00:49:39,720 --> 00:49:44,200 receiver. I think probably McCaffrey is, 831 00:49:44,280 --> 00:49:46,880 is like a better route run. Like if, if these guys had to 832 00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:50,920 line up at receiver the entire game, McCaffrey probably edges 833 00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:52,800 all out. But like the fact that that's a 834 00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:57,640 conversation I think is pretty telling as to how incredibly 835 00:49:57,640 --> 00:49:59,600 talented Breece is as a pass catcher. 836 00:49:59,840 --> 00:50:02,560 The the real thing though, is just Breece in space. 837 00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:06,160 Like if you have Breece in space, it's a big problem for 838 00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:08,880 the defense. Like every time that he got the 839 00:50:08,880 --> 00:50:12,240 ball in space this last game, it was pretty much like 10 yards 840 00:50:12,240 --> 00:50:14,360 guaranteed. Like he gets the ball on a 841 00:50:14,360 --> 00:50:17,800 little check down and there's no one within 5 yards of him. 842 00:50:18,080 --> 00:50:20,560 Well, it doesn't matter if the first guy is going to close on 843 00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:23,560 him and meet him, you know, 5 yards after the catch because 844 00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:25,760 he's going to Juke that guy who's going to break his tackle. 845 00:50:26,200 --> 00:50:28,160 I mean, he looks, he looks so good. 846 00:50:28,240 --> 00:50:31,000 He, he's, he is incredible there. 847 00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:35,280 There have been a couple plays now it's these last two weeks 848 00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:38,040 too, where it's like, Oh my God, he's going to break a big 849 00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:41,040 touchdown run and like twice he hasn't converted on them. 850 00:50:41,440 --> 00:50:44,760 And I'm like, I'm hesitant to to say like, oh, he lost a little 851 00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:47,240 of his top end speed. Like, I don't really think 852 00:50:47,240 --> 00:50:48,240 that's it. The one. 853 00:50:48,240 --> 00:50:50,080 He's too young for that to be the case. 854 00:50:50,440 --> 00:50:54,520 Yeah, there there was the one play two weeks ago now where it 855 00:50:54,520 --> 00:50:58,240 did just look a little weird. I, I, I mean, I don't want to 856 00:50:58,240 --> 00:51:02,000 overly zoom in on the result of one specific play, what it 857 00:51:02,240 --> 00:51:05,880 looked like like was he, he like gives up at the end, like he 858 00:51:05,880 --> 00:51:09,760 can't beat the safety. What I what I want to tell 859 00:51:09,760 --> 00:51:13,600 myself, the copium is I think he thought he was setting the guy 860 00:51:13,600 --> 00:51:16,680 up to for like a a Juke where he's like, I'm gonna. 861 00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:19,240 I think he probably didn't see the guy until it was too late. 862 00:51:20,200 --> 00:51:23,280 Yeah, that that could be it as well, but I don't want to reach 863 00:51:23,320 --> 00:51:24,440 much. Into that, yeah. 864 00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:26,200 Yeah. One thing just to keep us 865 00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:29,760 rolling that so Breece Hall. Incredible. 866 00:51:29,960 --> 00:51:33,880 The other thing though, with his increased role last week, 867 00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:38,520 Braylon Allen saw only 5 snaps. Yeah, Braylon Allen is just. 868 00:51:38,520 --> 00:51:42,560 He went from a very startable player to just pure contingent 869 00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:45,760 upside like you said. Huge, huge contingent upside. 870 00:51:45,760 --> 00:51:47,680 He's still worth a stat. Like if you're in a RE draft 871 00:51:47,760 --> 00:51:51,120 league, you know FFPC, you know main event. 872 00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:54,320 Like Braylon Allen's an awesome guy to have on the back end of 873 00:51:54,320 --> 00:51:57,840 your roster because if anything happens to Breece, he's probably 874 00:51:57,840 --> 00:52:01,600 a league winner. But that's we're we're done 875 00:52:01,600 --> 00:52:06,080 waxing poetic on Bruce Hall. I've got a guy who he actually 876 00:52:06,080 --> 00:52:09,520 he didn't play this week. So you know, nothing really 877 00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:11,520 changing with his snaps and usage. 878 00:52:11,520 --> 00:52:14,400 Although we are using the four week rolling data on these 879 00:52:14,400 --> 00:52:16,880 charts just to try and pick up on trends as they're happening. 880 00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:18,640 So we're not using the entire season. 881 00:52:19,200 --> 00:52:22,160 So we are dropping off a less favorable game for this player 882 00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:26,480 in exchange for, you know, his his last three games because he 883 00:52:26,480 --> 00:52:29,920 can play in week 7. We're all pretty favorable. 884 00:52:29,920 --> 00:52:32,040 That's DeAndre Swift. He's up here near the top of the 885 00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:37,600 chart as far as usage. I'm curious, do you think that 886 00:52:37,960 --> 00:52:43,920 Swift is going to maintain this level of a role here going 887 00:52:43,920 --> 00:52:44,520 forward? And I. 888 00:52:44,640 --> 00:52:47,480 Think, I think what he's at risk of losing is the goal line 889 00:52:47,480 --> 00:52:51,080 stuff. If you're if you're considering 890 00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:53,720 the kind of narrative that going into the bye week, they self 891 00:52:53,720 --> 00:52:57,320 scout and then they look at the tape and they're like, OK, this 892 00:52:57,320 --> 00:53:01,360 is where we're going to change where you would do that for the 893 00:53:01,360 --> 00:53:07,400 bears on Swift is OK, this guy is great between the 20s kind of 894 00:53:07,400 --> 00:53:12,520 has been his is or has been like very at least serviceable 895 00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:16,400 between the 20s entire career, but pretty rough on the goal 896 00:53:16,400 --> 00:53:19,640 line. And I think that's where you 897 00:53:19,640 --> 00:53:22,800 could see Rojo become the goal line back. 898 00:53:22,880 --> 00:53:28,960 I think that's your big concerned there and for the 899 00:53:28,960 --> 00:53:32,920 Andre Swift, but I I think other than that kind of that's and 900 00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:34,880 that's more of a risk than like a base case. 901 00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:39,360 I think he's looking. I I don't see a reason why they 902 00:53:39,360 --> 00:53:43,880 would they would go away from him like he went into the body 903 00:53:43,880 --> 00:53:48,880 playing strong like well. Yeah, no, I I think that's a 904 00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:50,680 good thing to look out for, though. 905 00:53:50,680 --> 00:53:54,360 If he does start losing the goal line role, it's definitely 906 00:53:54,360 --> 00:53:57,760 something to be wary of. They do get the commanders this 907 00:53:57,760 --> 00:54:00,280 week. I'm kind of wondering how 908 00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:04,360 exciting the commanders will be if Jane Daniels misses against a 909 00:54:04,360 --> 00:54:10,160 good Bears defense. This this game is 1 where I am 910 00:54:10,160 --> 00:54:12,280 kind of excited about it. But at the same time, I can 911 00:54:12,280 --> 00:54:16,640 really see how it fails where the bears decide to go run heavy 912 00:54:16,640 --> 00:54:18,440 and keep keep the ball in swift hands. 913 00:54:18,440 --> 00:54:21,440 And the commanders are, you know, really don't want to open 914 00:54:21,440 --> 00:54:24,960 it up with Mariota and they just run the ball a ton with Brian 915 00:54:24,960 --> 00:54:27,600 Robinson against a pretty. Oh, it's going to be the Cliff 916 00:54:27,600 --> 00:54:30,440 Kingsbury show where it's running the ball in short 917 00:54:30,440 --> 00:54:33,080 passes. Yeah, I, I. 918 00:54:33,560 --> 00:54:35,680 That's what it's going to be. I tend to agree. 919 00:54:37,120 --> 00:54:41,440 Another guy. They had, they had a -, 7% PROE 920 00:54:41,440 --> 00:54:44,080 last week, which kind of bears that out. 921 00:54:44,640 --> 00:54:49,560 Yeah, another guy whose role I think is, is this guy's role I 922 00:54:49,560 --> 00:54:53,880 think might be in even more jeopardy than Swift, but it's 923 00:54:53,880 --> 00:54:56,240 definitely one that's ambiguous still as well. 924 00:54:56,240 --> 00:54:59,640 Is James Cook. I mean, really, the the Ray 925 00:54:59,640 --> 00:55:03,200 Davis questionable was the best thing to happen to James Cook. 926 00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:06,160 Because I think if James Cook strong, or excuse me, if Ray 927 00:55:06,160 --> 00:55:10,520 Davis strung together another game as strong as the first one 928 00:55:10,520 --> 00:55:13,960 where he really got the workload, I think you were going 929 00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:18,160 to see James Cook's role begin to dwindle. 930 00:55:18,160 --> 00:55:21,440 Not not that he would lose the primary job, but just that 931 00:55:21,480 --> 00:55:24,760 they'd be more willing to work. He had he only had 50% of the 932 00:55:24,760 --> 00:55:29,320 snaps in in week 7. So I think could you think part 933 00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:31,840 of? That that's your only cope? 934 00:55:32,120 --> 00:55:36,600 Like, that's a potential reason. It's a potential reason that 935 00:55:36,840 --> 00:55:40,400 James Cook was banged up with a toe injury, that he only played 936 00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:43,880 50% of snaps and that next week he's going to be perfectly fine. 937 00:55:44,800 --> 00:55:49,440 It's also potential that he actually was close to go. 938 00:55:49,520 --> 00:55:53,960 He was close to going on Monday and then by the time Sunday came 939 00:55:53,960 --> 00:56:01,600 around, he was kind of fine. And like we, that's one of those 940 00:56:01,600 --> 00:56:04,040 things, we actually don't know what the explanation is. 941 00:56:04,640 --> 00:56:07,280 We just know that a snap count went down dramatically. 942 00:56:07,280 --> 00:56:13,240 We it might have been the injury, but it's not count was 943 00:56:13,240 --> 00:56:15,320 down a lot. And, and I think the other thing 944 00:56:15,320 --> 00:56:19,600 to remember with the Bills is the running backs only have true 945 00:56:19,600 --> 00:56:24,560 value if they're running a lot. Like if they go through a lot of 946 00:56:24,560 --> 00:56:29,680 a high drop back count again like and and and you get this 947 00:56:29,680 --> 00:56:32,920 kind of committee backfield, which seems very much in play. 948 00:56:33,880 --> 00:56:37,680 Like I don't think any of these guys are startable unless you 949 00:56:37,680 --> 00:56:39,800 get a spot start from contingent upside. 950 00:56:40,400 --> 00:56:44,560 So are you saying that Josh Allen and James Cook are real 951 00:56:44,560 --> 00:56:48,640 Harry Potter and Lord Voldemort scenario where one must die for 952 00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:51,200 the other to live? Yeah, pretty much. 953 00:56:52,480 --> 00:56:58,880 OK, next running back I had a note on man Kareem Hunt. 954 00:56:59,120 --> 00:57:03,160 I mean, people, people thought, you know, oh, maybe they're 955 00:57:03,160 --> 00:57:05,600 going to really split up this Isaiah Pacheco work. 956 00:57:05,600 --> 00:57:07,800 Nope. Kareem Hunt's getting it all. 957 00:57:07,800 --> 00:57:12,240 It is the Kareem Hunt show. I mean, stop me if this is is 958 00:57:12,240 --> 00:57:15,760 too hyperbolic, Tricko, But does Kareem Hunt have the safest 959 00:57:15,760 --> 00:57:19,520 floor in fantasy? Because the Chiefs are are a run 960 00:57:19,520 --> 00:57:21,960 for his team at this point. Week to week, I think that's 961 00:57:22,000 --> 00:57:23,400 right. Week to week. 962 00:57:24,080 --> 00:57:27,280 Like, yeah. He's older, we've seen him like 963 00:57:27,280 --> 00:57:34,240 kind of fade. And so I, I, I have personally, 964 00:57:34,240 --> 00:57:38,520 I have questions as to how long he can maintain a workload at 965 00:57:38,520 --> 00:57:44,400 like a high like quality. And but week to week, I think 966 00:57:44,400 --> 00:57:47,080 that's right. I think he has great projectable 967 00:57:47,080 --> 00:57:49,720 volume. He's playing just fine. 968 00:57:50,040 --> 00:57:52,240 He's not like he's not shooting the bed or anything like that. 969 00:57:52,240 --> 00:57:57,240 So no risk of getting benched and seems unlikely that he's 970 00:57:57,240 --> 00:58:02,360 just going to shit the bed on unless you get some kind of like 971 00:58:02,360 --> 00:58:05,160 because like he's older, so he could pick up some kind of knock 972 00:58:05,400 --> 00:58:08,120 more easily than other players that could linger more. 973 00:58:09,960 --> 00:58:17,680 And but I think that's I have that concern just because he's 974 00:58:17,680 --> 00:58:21,240 somebody who went from it. But I think you're right, that 975 00:58:21,240 --> 00:58:23,760 is a very safe projectable volume rule. 976 00:58:24,840 --> 00:58:28,720 Yeah, I mean, Gretch, Gretch wrote about it in signals and 977 00:58:28,840 --> 00:58:32,000 and just said, you know, Cream Hunt just keeps falling forward 978 00:58:32,480 --> 00:58:35,080 that he does. Like that's the the runs aren't 979 00:58:35,080 --> 00:58:36,960 like particularly impressive or anything. 980 00:58:37,160 --> 00:58:42,000 You know what it reminds me of is it's like almost washed but 981 00:58:42,000 --> 00:58:45,360 not quite washed yet. Ezekiel Elliott like when he was 982 00:58:45,360 --> 00:58:48,600 just like had the really good success rate, but like no more 983 00:58:48,600 --> 00:58:51,840 explosive plays and he was like still getting double digit 984 00:58:51,840 --> 00:58:55,680 touchdowns, you know, getting right Cowboys. 985 00:58:56,000 --> 00:58:58,800 That's this. This is Kareem Hunt is in his 986 00:58:58,800 --> 00:59:01,560 almost washed Ezekiel Elliott era right now. 987 00:59:02,600 --> 00:59:06,640 And but the thing about that era for Zeke is that by the end of 988 00:59:06,640 --> 00:59:09,840 the season, he wasn't playable for fantasy. 989 00:59:09,920 --> 00:59:12,880 Right, right. He he opened the gate playable, 990 00:59:12,960 --> 00:59:15,480 very playable and put up decent weeks. 991 00:59:15,480 --> 00:59:19,520 But by the end it was like, oh, this guy is so hurt that like 992 00:59:19,600 --> 00:59:21,000 we're going to see keep playing him. 993 00:59:21,120 --> 00:59:25,280 He's a team player, but he he wasn't getting there for 994 00:59:25,280 --> 00:59:28,400 fantasy. The, the thing I that I think 995 00:59:28,400 --> 00:59:31,000 that's really good analysis, 'cause I, I think you're right 996 00:59:31,000 --> 00:59:34,680 that he, it's more likely than not that Kareem Hunt wanes as 997 00:59:34,680 --> 00:59:37,640 the season goes on, right? The thing that makes that 998 00:59:37,640 --> 00:59:41,520 interesting is that the Chiefs are a good enough team and a a, 999 00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:47,000 you know, a team that is well run to where they'll figure if, 1000 00:59:47,080 --> 00:59:50,160 if that's happening, they will. Figure out alternative. 1001 00:59:50,880 --> 00:59:55,480 And so I'm really excited as to like, maybe the Chiefs actually 1002 00:59:55,480 --> 00:59:58,480 have to start scheming some stuff to Xavier Worthy by the 1003 00:59:58,480 --> 01:00:01,480 end of the season to, you know, maybe the offense has to get a 1004 01:00:01,480 --> 01:00:05,480 little bit more gadgety or maybe they're having to open it up. 1005 01:00:07,200 --> 01:00:09,600 I know, I know, we're not on the receiver chart, but they did 1006 01:00:09,600 --> 01:00:11,960 actually scheme stuff to to wordy. 1007 01:00:12,680 --> 01:00:14,120 Yeah. And then they did have the the 1008 01:00:14,120 --> 01:00:15,600 Mikkel. They had some Mikkel Hardman 1009 01:00:15,600 --> 01:00:20,480 stuff as well. So yeah, I do I think we could 1010 01:00:20,480 --> 01:00:25,440 see that part of the offense expand as the season goes on. 1011 01:00:25,440 --> 01:00:31,440 But OK, here's another running back that I I definitely think 1012 01:00:31,440 --> 01:00:34,440 we need to talk about. Javonte Williams finally has his 1013 01:00:34,440 --> 01:00:38,960 first big game, right? I mean, the role is 1014 01:00:39,720 --> 01:00:43,360 extraordinarily consistent. It it's just another week of, 1015 01:00:44,200 --> 01:00:46,080 hey, Javonte is going to be the lead back. 1016 01:00:46,640 --> 01:00:52,120 We're going to use him up to a certain like a count of raw 1017 01:00:52,120 --> 01:00:54,720 snaps. That's really how they divide 1018 01:00:54,720 --> 01:00:56,560 the work. It's not a percentage thing. 1019 01:00:56,560 --> 01:00:59,560 So if you're looking week over week, that's going to fluctuate 1020 01:00:59,560 --> 01:01:01,320 just due to the overall play volume. 1021 01:01:02,240 --> 01:01:05,200 But in weeks where they have really low play volume, 1022 01:01:05,440 --> 01:01:07,720 Javonte's going to have a huge percentage of the workload. 1023 01:01:07,720 --> 01:01:09,960 In weeks where they have really high play volume, we'll have a 1024 01:01:09,960 --> 01:01:11,760 slightly lower percentage of the workload. 1025 01:01:12,800 --> 01:01:16,360 But he looks like, I mean, he's the running back one on the team 1026 01:01:16,520 --> 01:01:19,840 right now. Yeah, so he they played 68 1027 01:01:20,000 --> 01:01:25,640 offensive snaps last week and he was on the field for 59 percent 1028 01:01:26,440 --> 01:01:33,200 or and 40 of those snaps. So he's looking pretty solid. 1029 01:01:33,360 --> 01:01:36,120 And I think he hasn't played the best. 1030 01:01:36,600 --> 01:01:39,520 But then every time they try to like, give somebody else a look, 1031 01:01:39,760 --> 01:01:42,720 that other player just like shits the bad. 1032 01:01:43,680 --> 01:01:45,160 Yeah. So like that, that's probably 1033 01:01:45,160 --> 01:01:49,040 still an ongoing risk of like they give somebody else a look 1034 01:01:49,080 --> 01:01:54,280 and they actually look good. And they're like, oh, but that's 1035 01:01:54,280 --> 01:01:56,280 not happening. And, and, and, and, well, that's 1036 01:01:56,280 --> 01:01:59,240 not happening. I think you're you're, you're 1037 01:01:59,240 --> 01:02:03,400 getting a good role for Javonte. Yeah, the, the talent mode is 1038 01:02:03,400 --> 01:02:07,160 not particularly deep or wide. However, the people trying to 1039 01:02:07,160 --> 01:02:09,800 swim across the talent mode cannot swim. 1040 01:02:09,840 --> 01:02:13,520 They're drowning in talent mode. I mean, estimate puts the ball 1041 01:02:13,520 --> 01:02:17,360 on the ground again. You gotta think that they're 1042 01:02:17,400 --> 01:02:20,960 they're the object estimate experiment might end before it 1043 01:02:20,960 --> 01:02:23,320 even starts if he if he fumbles again. 1044 01:02:23,680 --> 01:02:27,440 Just right, right, right. And then Julio McLaughlin is 1045 01:02:27,440 --> 01:02:32,040 like, he's fun, but I just he's not he's never gonna get enough 1046 01:02:32,040 --> 01:02:34,680 snaps. The The thing is, the Broncos 1047 01:02:34,680 --> 01:02:38,320 would have to run so many plays for Julio McLaughlin to have the 1048 01:02:38,320 --> 01:02:39,760 snaps. But like they. 1049 01:02:39,840 --> 01:02:42,920 Run nearly 70 plays and he only got 11 snaps. 1050 01:02:43,320 --> 01:02:46,760 Right, right. But here's let me let me read 1051 01:02:46,760 --> 01:02:49,640 you the Jovante snap count week over week, just so you can see 1052 01:02:49,640 --> 01:02:51,800 what I'm talking about. And and this is a shout out to 1053 01:02:51,800 --> 01:02:53,800 Gretsch for initially pointing this out, but it's something 1054 01:02:53,800 --> 01:02:55,760 that I paid attention to after he called it out. 1055 01:02:56,120 --> 01:02:59,320 But here's the Jovante snaps, just raw snaps, not percentage 1056 01:02:59,320 --> 01:03:10,800 week over week, 36403535383841. It like Sean Payton has a number 1057 01:03:10,800 --> 01:03:14,360 of snaps that he thinks is like the the limit where he wants to 1058 01:03:14,360 --> 01:03:16,840 begin tapering off the workload on a guy. 1059 01:03:17,160 --> 01:03:21,480 And that's what he's going by. And so knowing, knowing that we 1060 01:03:21,480 --> 01:03:26,200 kind of know a couple things #1 Javonte's role is going like 1061 01:03:26,200 --> 01:03:30,160 he's got a floor even in these low play volume games because 1062 01:03:30,160 --> 01:03:31,680 he'll just be the guy that gets it all then. 1063 01:03:32,200 --> 01:03:36,120 And then #2 ceiling's a little capped in these highest play 1064 01:03:36,120 --> 01:03:39,760 volume games because he'll start losing some of those snaps. 1065 01:03:40,600 --> 01:03:43,480 So he's, he's kind of like a a ho hum. 1066 01:03:43,560 --> 01:03:46,440 You know, like if he's, if you're getting him at a good 1067 01:03:46,440 --> 01:03:49,960 value, he's great to play, but he's never someone that I really 1068 01:03:49,960 --> 01:03:53,160 want to pay up a ton for. So this week is super 1069 01:03:53,160 --> 01:03:55,040 interesting against the Panthers. 1070 01:03:56,240 --> 01:04:00,520 What I think's going to happen to him in like dog bowl ADP is 1071 01:04:00,520 --> 01:04:03,000 he'll climb a bunch because projections are going to project 1072 01:04:03,000 --> 01:04:06,120 pretty well with good projectable volume and a really 1073 01:04:06,400 --> 01:04:09,400 strong match up. And after he climbs, I think 1074 01:04:09,400 --> 01:04:12,680 he'll be an absolute dog shit pick because I I think the 1075 01:04:12,680 --> 01:04:15,480 ceiling is, is capped. You're you're going to take a 1076 01:04:15,480 --> 01:04:19,440 player that is screaming up and then going next to players with 1077 01:04:19,440 --> 01:04:23,240 ceilings that are less capped. And also the talent has not been 1078 01:04:23,240 --> 01:04:26,240 great this season. But I'm, I'm loving him right 1079 01:04:26,240 --> 01:04:29,480 now. But I bet you by Thursday I 1080 01:04:29,480 --> 01:04:32,040 probably will have drafted my last Jovante Williams share for 1081 01:04:32,040 --> 01:04:35,600 the week. So let me tell you why Jovante 1082 01:04:35,600 --> 01:04:37,760 Williams is isn't going anywhere. 1083 01:04:38,920 --> 01:04:46,520 Of the of the 49 pass blocking snaps for Broncos running backs, 1084 01:04:47,200 --> 01:04:54,840 he has 44 of those. Yeah, so he's the only guy they 1085 01:04:54,840 --> 01:04:58,560 trust there. So that is a pretty secure game 1086 01:04:58,560 --> 01:05:03,240 script proof role. Yeah, I'm pulling up Jaleel 1087 01:05:03,240 --> 01:05:06,720 McLaughlin here now. There were some some of these 1088 01:05:06,720 --> 01:05:10,280 games where they had more snaps. He did more play volume. 1089 01:05:10,320 --> 01:05:14,240 He did play a little bit more. But yeah, like the highest, 1090 01:05:14,360 --> 01:05:17,800 highest number of snaps he's had all season was back in Week 1 1091 01:05:17,800 --> 01:05:20,160 where he got 24. He's never had more snaps than 1092 01:05:20,160 --> 01:05:23,640 that. So yeah, it's just it's tough to 1093 01:05:23,640 --> 01:05:28,880 see Jaleel get there. Like the the spot for Jaleel is 1094 01:05:29,080 --> 01:05:33,240 full PPR best ball formats only because you're never going to 1095 01:05:33,520 --> 01:05:36,960 play this guy and you really need the additional little PPR 1096 01:05:36,960 --> 01:05:40,680 scam that you get from him. And he'll he'll you know, he'll 1097 01:05:40,680 --> 01:05:43,560 sneak a touchdown in there with a cool play here and there, but 1098 01:05:43,560 --> 01:05:45,160 it's not it's never going to be anything. 1099 01:05:45,160 --> 01:05:51,680 You'll know when to start. So all right, the there's two 1100 01:05:51,680 --> 01:05:54,800 more guys or situations really that I want to talk about on 1101 01:05:54,800 --> 01:05:56,400 this chart before you go to the backups. 1102 01:05:56,800 --> 01:06:00,240 But we can see these Zac Moss and Chase Brown flipping 1103 01:06:00,240 --> 01:06:05,440 happening in real time here. Man, Zac Moss was really bad on 1104 01:06:05,440 --> 01:06:09,320 the ground this week. I, I need you to confirm this 1105 01:06:09,320 --> 01:06:13,160 'cause I'm just going off memory right here, but did he not have 1106 01:06:13,240 --> 01:06:15,680 6 carries for seven yards this week? 1107 01:06:15,680 --> 01:06:17,640 I believe that is the Zac on the line. 1108 01:06:18,440 --> 01:06:21,640 I know he had 6 attempts and I don't have this. 1109 01:06:22,960 --> 01:06:26,600 I don't have let me pull. I can pull up his his rushing. 1110 01:06:27,040 --> 01:06:29,720 Yeah, he looks, I mean, he looks bad as a rusher. 1111 01:06:29,760 --> 01:06:32,080 There were a couple. There was one play where he gets 1112 01:06:32,080 --> 01:06:36,520 a little dump off from Burrow and I didn't see his number and 1113 01:06:36,520 --> 01:06:40,160 he he like looked halfway decent at the like he had a, his first 1114 01:06:40,160 --> 01:06:43,080 step was like, the guy has a little bit of burst, OK. 1115 01:06:43,600 --> 01:06:47,040 And then like, he went nowhere. Like the first step looked fast. 1116 01:06:47,040 --> 01:06:51,040 I was like, Oh yes, Chase Brown. And then after that first step, 1117 01:06:51,080 --> 01:06:53,920 I realized it was Zach Moss, 'cause he started moving like he 1118 01:06:53,920 --> 01:06:56,160 was in mud. Yeah, 7 yards. 1119 01:06:56,960 --> 01:07:00,920 Yeah. So the the problem I think 1120 01:07:00,920 --> 01:07:04,200 though, is as much as I want to be the full-fledged chase. 1121 01:07:04,280 --> 01:07:11,440 Anecdotes after the contact. Oh man, I, I, I want to be the 1122 01:07:11,440 --> 01:07:13,680 full-fledged Chase Brown slappy because he's clearly the better 1123 01:07:13,680 --> 01:07:16,760 player and I, the team is acknowledging that as well. 1124 01:07:17,200 --> 01:07:20,800 The problem is they're still using Zac Moss and I think Chase 1125 01:07:20,800 --> 01:07:26,120 Brown is like the poor man's Devana Chan where he's like, 1126 01:07:26,480 --> 01:07:28,640 you're relying on the explosive play. 1127 01:07:28,640 --> 01:07:33,400 He's not getting enough of the volume to really be like super 1128 01:07:33,400 --> 01:07:38,880 consistent week to week. I mean really the spots where I 1129 01:07:38,880 --> 01:07:42,040 want to play Chase Brown are probably more spots where I just 1130 01:07:42,040 --> 01:07:43,680 want to like onslaught the Bengals. 1131 01:07:43,760 --> 01:07:46,560 And I'm saying the Bengals are scoring 4 touchdowns today and 1132 01:07:46,560 --> 01:07:50,640 so Chase Brown can get one of them, but he's not super 1133 01:07:50,640 --> 01:07:55,280 appealing to me as like a. No, no, he's not just yet. 1134 01:07:55,560 --> 01:07:58,600 So anyway, that's the cold water on Chase Brown. 1135 01:07:58,920 --> 01:08:02,000 But. He's got 45% of like fantasy 1136 01:08:02,000 --> 01:08:05,240 useful snaps, so combining Russia attempts and routes 1137 01:08:05,600 --> 01:08:12,920 versus 32% for for Moss. So I think you've had the flip 1138 01:08:12,920 --> 01:08:15,840 innings happened. It's occurred. 1139 01:08:16,399 --> 01:08:20,960 But what keeps Zach Moss on the field as bad as he looks is the 1140 01:08:20,960 --> 01:08:24,000 past blocking. Like they think Chase Brown is a 1141 01:08:24,000 --> 01:08:30,080 better rusher and 28% versus 11% for Zach Moss last week. 1142 01:08:30,680 --> 01:08:33,840 But they trust Zach Moss in the past, blocking more. 1143 01:08:34,479 --> 01:08:37,240 So I think that's what keeps him like kind of hanging around, 1144 01:08:37,240 --> 01:08:39,359 hanging around. Yeah. 1145 01:08:39,359 --> 01:08:42,520 And I unfortunately do not think that's going to go away. 1146 01:08:43,040 --> 01:08:45,720 No, it's not. That's the problem really what 1147 01:08:45,720 --> 01:08:49,120 you need for Chase Brown and this is this is so weird that 1148 01:08:49,120 --> 01:08:52,880 you're like, oh, you need a you need a Zac Moss injury so he can 1149 01:08:52,880 --> 01:08:56,359 stop pass blocking. But really the reason you need 1150 01:08:56,359 --> 01:08:59,000 that is just so chase Brown can be on the field more. 1151 01:08:59,359 --> 01:09:03,279 And like I, I bet you that if they did not have Zac Moss, they 1152 01:09:03,279 --> 01:09:06,359 simply would would choose to have a different player block. 1153 01:09:06,359 --> 01:09:08,920 They'd be like, well, we did want to have the back stay in 1154 01:09:08,920 --> 01:09:11,399 and block. Instead, we're just going to 1155 01:09:11,399 --> 01:09:13,200 have an extra tight end out here now. 1156 01:09:13,479 --> 01:09:18,520 Right, Erika, you're blocking instead of that 2 yard, instead 1157 01:09:18,520 --> 01:09:21,520 of that 2 yard screenplay, you're blocking now. 1158 01:09:21,800 --> 01:09:25,960 Yep, I 100% think that is the way that it would go if Zack 1159 01:09:25,960 --> 01:09:28,279 Moss were unavailable. All right. 1160 01:09:28,279 --> 01:09:33,399 Last guy or situation on the starters chart, but man, Tyrone 1161 01:09:33,399 --> 01:09:37,680 Tracy retains a really strong role with Singletary back. 1162 01:09:37,920 --> 01:09:41,120 I wanted to ask you, do you think that's simply because 1163 01:09:41,120 --> 01:09:45,680 Singletary wasn't at 100% or has Tracy earned this large of a 1164 01:09:45,680 --> 01:09:50,279 role going forward? You know, it's, it's hard for me 1165 01:09:50,279 --> 01:09:54,600 to to consider like Singletary just being iced out. 1166 01:09:55,080 --> 01:10:03,240 Like Singletary is the ICER. He's not the iced E and like we 1167 01:10:03,320 --> 01:10:06,000 we have to pay attention if we if we get another week like 1168 01:10:06,000 --> 01:10:10,440 that, then like it almost doesn't matter if he if it's 1169 01:10:10,440 --> 01:10:13,400 just because he's still injured, like they're still playing a 1170 01:10:13,400 --> 01:10:14,480 more. Right. 1171 01:10:15,080 --> 01:10:19,080 And it's a, it's a legitimate, it's a hard call. 1172 01:10:19,080 --> 01:10:22,640 I, I, I don't have a way to, to like tell. 1173 01:10:23,240 --> 01:10:26,560 And I'm a little suspicious of that being the case. 1174 01:10:27,360 --> 01:10:31,840 Like they're like, Oh yeah, great stuff. 1175 01:10:31,840 --> 01:10:34,760 Devon Singletary, we gave you the the free agent contract. 1176 01:10:34,920 --> 01:10:38,040 You're a favorite player, but we don't want to play you anymore. 1177 01:10:38,480 --> 01:10:42,240 Like, that seems a little far fetched to me. 1178 01:10:42,920 --> 01:10:47,280 But that that other than that kind of gut feeling and I don't 1179 01:10:47,280 --> 01:10:52,200 have a lot to to to base it on. Yeah, for, for reference, 12 1180 01:10:52,240 --> 01:10:56,440 snaps for Devon Singletary to 39 for Tyrone Tracy. 1181 01:10:56,680 --> 01:11:00,280 This here's a fun stat here. Here's a interesting, you know, 1182 01:11:00,320 --> 01:11:03,560 you can you can show how in the weeds you are looking at Giants 1183 01:11:03,560 --> 01:11:08,880 running back snaps by position. Tyrone Tracy lined up as a 1184 01:11:08,880 --> 01:11:12,880 receiver on the same number of snaps that Devon Singletary was 1185 01:11:12,880 --> 01:11:16,920 on the field at all. 12 snaps either in the slot or out wide 1186 01:11:16,920 --> 01:11:19,720 for Tyrone Tracy. 12 total snaps for Devon Singletary. 1187 01:11:20,680 --> 01:11:22,840 Wow, that is pretty interesting. Yeah. 1188 01:11:23,240 --> 01:11:27,200 So I wonder how much overlap that was where like we're 1189 01:11:27,200 --> 01:11:31,080 bringing Devon Singletary on, but we're not taking Tyrone 1190 01:11:31,080 --> 01:11:34,080 Tracy off. No, you stay on, but you still 1191 01:11:34,080 --> 01:11:36,440 want you to play receiver, right? 1192 01:11:36,440 --> 01:11:42,040 That is pretty interesting. Yeah, I, I think, I mean, I 1193 01:11:42,040 --> 01:11:44,880 don't have a ton of Tracy. I definitely was drafting Tracy, 1194 01:11:44,880 --> 01:11:47,640 but like I don't have like 20% or anything. 1195 01:11:48,560 --> 01:11:51,960 And so I the reason I'm telling you this context is I don't want 1196 01:11:51,960 --> 01:11:54,960 you to think that I'm some like Tyrone Tracy bag defending 1197 01:11:54,960 --> 01:11:57,080 Slappy. I think Tyrone Tracy is just 1198 01:11:57,080 --> 01:12:01,400 good like. He is like, even when Singletary 1199 01:12:01,400 --> 01:12:04,800 is back, back, they still have to find a way to get Tracy 1200 01:12:04,800 --> 01:12:09,840 involved. But yeah, I, I don't know if if 1201 01:12:10,000 --> 01:12:12,800 like it's, it's just, it's so hard for me to think of like 1202 01:12:12,800 --> 01:12:14,360 that's such a like an alien thing. 1203 01:12:16,480 --> 01:12:18,800 All right, let's go to the backups chart. 1204 01:12:19,440 --> 01:12:21,960 One of the running backs we're about to talk about is actually 1205 01:12:21,960 --> 01:12:23,800 at the very bottom of the starters chart, and that's for 1206 01:12:23,800 --> 01:12:26,520 Shaun White. But we need to talk about him in 1207 01:12:26,520 --> 01:12:30,440 the context of Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker. 1208 01:12:31,920 --> 01:12:36,600 Now I'm I'm trying to remember because I watched this entire 1209 01:12:36,600 --> 01:12:39,240 game last night. I'm trying to remember. 1210 01:12:39,320 --> 01:12:44,560 I'm pretty confident both of the white touchdowns came after the 1211 01:12:44,560 --> 01:12:46,680 game was pretty out of hand. Am I? 1212 01:12:46,760 --> 01:12:49,720 Am I right about that? I know the the there was a the 1213 01:12:49,720 --> 01:12:52,520 really late 1. The really late 1 was just like 1214 01:12:52,520 --> 01:12:55,440 pure garbage time. Like no one was playing defense. 1215 01:12:55,440 --> 01:12:57,480 It was a blown coverage. He gets to walk. 1216 01:12:57,480 --> 01:13:02,200 In I think, I think the I think the first one, the game was like 1217 01:13:02,360 --> 01:13:05,960 even not I think it was still like a competitive. 1218 01:13:06,400 --> 01:13:08,480 Like I'm, I'm being generous by competitive. 1219 01:13:08,480 --> 01:13:12,040 Like there was still some chance that the Bucks could win. 1220 01:13:12,320 --> 01:13:16,760 I think that's right. So the way I'm kind of looking 1221 01:13:16,760 --> 01:13:20,600 at it is if you look, if you just look at the rush attempts, 1222 01:13:21,000 --> 01:13:24,680 so White did lead in rush attempts. 1223 01:13:25,440 --> 01:13:30,360 He had 12% versus 11% for Bucky Irving, 6% for Sean Tucker. 1224 01:13:31,080 --> 01:13:35,560 And then actually I like 10 rush attempts, 9 rush attempts, 5 1225 01:13:35,560 --> 01:13:42,360 rush attempts for Tucker. And and then he had 22 routes 1226 01:13:42,680 --> 01:13:45,560 versus 18 for Bucky, 8 for Sean Tucker. 1227 01:13:46,160 --> 01:13:48,800 So like that is that that's a true like committee. 1228 01:13:49,360 --> 01:13:53,920 And then even even being the lead, White is only on the field 1229 01:13:53,920 --> 01:13:57,000 for 46%. His snap rate is 46%. 1230 01:13:58,160 --> 01:14:07,280 So I think, I think at least in that game, he still had a pretty 1231 01:14:07,280 --> 01:14:13,840 important role. But I do I do wonder if if in 1232 01:14:13,840 --> 01:14:18,800 games that where where they're where the game script is not so 1233 01:14:18,800 --> 01:14:22,800 against them where they are actually running the ball, if 1234 01:14:22,800 --> 01:14:26,200 they involve Bookie and Sean Tucker more because he does have 1235 01:14:26,200 --> 01:14:31,680 that 6% pass blocking kind of Moat where he's able to that 1236 01:14:31,680 --> 01:14:33,960 that's his calling card to stay on the field. 1237 01:14:37,280 --> 01:14:41,240 But I guess if if this is, I think this is the upside. 1238 01:14:41,240 --> 01:14:46,040 This is the the best case scenario for Shad White snaps is 1239 01:14:46,040 --> 01:14:51,320 is close to 50%. And then it's like what 3515 for 1240 01:14:51,320 --> 01:14:54,160 the other guys. Like as early as he drafted 1241 01:14:54,160 --> 01:14:56,160 white. Like that's pretty rough. 1242 01:14:57,040 --> 01:15:00,560 I don't know if any of these guys are startable now. 1243 01:15:01,200 --> 01:15:03,920 Yeah, it's going to be. So there's two things. 1244 01:15:04,000 --> 01:15:08,160 Number one, it's it was pretty encouraging to me to see the 1245 01:15:08,160 --> 01:15:14,200 Bucks be willing to adjust how they viewed their backfield 1246 01:15:14,280 --> 01:15:16,680 after getting that information that. 1247 01:15:16,960 --> 01:15:18,200 Right, right. So quickly. 1248 01:15:18,200 --> 01:15:22,160 And they didn't just like, yeah. And great stuff, Tucker, but 1249 01:15:22,880 --> 01:15:26,120 you're back on the bench now. Yeah, yeah. 1250 01:15:26,280 --> 01:15:28,960 And they do the same with Bookie, where after he played, 1251 01:15:28,960 --> 01:15:31,160 well, they're like, OK, we have to play this guy more. 1252 01:15:31,520 --> 01:15:33,360 It, it just seems so criminal to me. 1253 01:15:33,440 --> 01:15:36,760 Remember last year when they're trotting out like Chase Edmonds 1254 01:15:36,760 --> 01:15:40,880 and shit and just like not giving Sean Tucker a chance? 1255 01:15:40,880 --> 01:15:45,560 Like how incompetent was that coaching staff last year to to 1256 01:15:45,560 --> 01:15:49,360 not I mean, like, I know it's largely the same people, you 1257 01:15:49,360 --> 01:15:52,320 know, different offensive coordinator with Canales going 1258 01:15:52,320 --> 01:15:56,320 over to Carolina, but what the fuck are you guys doing? 1259 01:15:56,720 --> 01:16:00,080 Like you just you had this guy here and you're like trying to 1260 01:16:00,080 --> 01:16:04,280 figure out what to do and he's like probably your best pure 1261 01:16:04,280 --> 01:16:08,480 runner, you know, right. Also, Bucky looked like he could 1262 01:16:08,480 --> 01:16:11,800 give looks like he'd give White a run for his money in the 1263 01:16:11,800 --> 01:16:14,240 passing game. Bucky looks really elusive man 1264 01:16:14,240 --> 01:16:16,200 like. He's yeah, yeah, He's a great 1265 01:16:16,200 --> 01:16:18,800 pass catcher and he got a lot of routes, too. 1266 01:16:18,800 --> 01:16:23,160 He got 22% of rents versus 27 for for White. 1267 01:16:24,120 --> 01:16:27,480 So he, I mean White is getting squeezed all over. 1268 01:16:28,840 --> 01:16:37,000 But I, I, so in a game where they had 82 plays, you had, you 1269 01:16:37,000 --> 01:16:44,400 had 38 total snaps. So about half for White and then 1270 01:16:44,920 --> 01:16:53,040 28 for Bucky, 16 for Tucker. So I, I, I'm, I'm maybe I'm just 1271 01:16:53,040 --> 01:16:59,640 repeating myself here. I do I like, I think that I 1272 01:16:59,640 --> 01:17:04,400 think that they like all of these guys now, but in a game 1273 01:17:04,400 --> 01:17:11,720 where that's closer to 50 plays, I think it's very hard to get 1274 01:17:11,760 --> 01:17:15,960 like good points from any any of these guys reliably. 1275 01:17:16,560 --> 01:17:21,040 Yeah, I think that sums it up. Pretty If you're in a pinch you 1276 01:17:21,040 --> 01:17:24,640 can start white, but that certainly isn't what you 1277 01:17:24,640 --> 01:17:27,120 drafted. I mean, I'd be willing to bet 1278 01:17:27,120 --> 01:17:32,280 that White never scores more fantasy points than his last 1279 01:17:32,280 --> 01:17:33,760 game for the rest of this season. 1280 01:17:34,160 --> 01:17:37,800 Yeah, for sure, for sure. Now, I, I, I'd be willing to, 1281 01:17:37,920 --> 01:17:40,120 you know, put that bet out to the chat if anyone wants to 1282 01:17:40,120 --> 01:17:42,520 actually give me action on it, but anyone that would actually 1283 01:17:42,520 --> 01:17:45,360 place that bet already had their feelings hurt too bad by my 1284 01:17:45,360 --> 01:17:47,640 Russell Wilson rant and they've stopped listening. 1285 01:17:48,720 --> 01:17:52,560 Or if you're listening into the podcast, feel free to DM and 1286 01:17:52,560 --> 01:17:57,080 suck in in discord afterwards. Yeah. 1287 01:17:57,080 --> 01:17:58,480 All right. I had just a couple quick notes. 1288 01:17:58,480 --> 01:18:00,360 We can kind of fly through these ones. 1289 01:18:00,880 --> 01:18:03,400 Yeah. Jerome Ford is dead with Nick 1290 01:18:03,400 --> 01:18:05,400 Chubb back. Nick Chubb getting like a lot of 1291 01:18:05,400 --> 01:18:10,720 work in his first game. Yeah, Ford, Ford not not fantasy 1292 01:18:10,720 --> 01:18:13,920 relevant anymore. Just pure, pure handcuff. 1293 01:18:16,240 --> 01:18:21,120 OK, Dolphins running backs. I think this is you got to do 1294 01:18:21,200 --> 01:18:23,000 that. Wrong Was it Or be one? 1295 01:18:24,680 --> 01:18:27,600 Yeah. So I think, I'm sorry, I'm sorry 1296 01:18:27,600 --> 01:18:32,200 to cut you off, but I think if they are going to be passing a 1297 01:18:32,200 --> 01:18:35,680 lot, I think Pierre strong is still kind of interesting there 1298 01:18:35,680 --> 01:18:42,760 because on unless, unless they decide to to ramp up and Chubb 1299 01:18:43,160 --> 01:18:47,440 as a as a pass catcher as well. And maybe they could maybe like 1300 01:18:47,520 --> 01:18:50,880 he dominated the rush attempts. They gave him a couple targets. 1301 01:18:50,880 --> 01:18:56,240 Let me find him here. He had 11 routes and so it's not 1302 01:18:56,240 --> 01:18:57,840 like they they just didn't use them. 1303 01:18:58,600 --> 01:19:05,040 And but yeah, it it it'll be interesting to see how that 1304 01:19:05,040 --> 01:19:07,240 evolves. But I I did think that was 1305 01:19:07,280 --> 01:19:12,120 interesting that and Pierre strong actually played a decent 1306 01:19:12,120 --> 01:19:17,720 amount like it. Obviously the Jerome Ford just 1307 01:19:17,720 --> 01:19:24,280 iced just surplus to requirements, but he he he he 1308 01:19:24,280 --> 01:19:28,880 still played a bit. So Ford had two targets versus 1309 01:19:28,880 --> 01:19:33,320 tree for Chubb. So maybe actually maybe maybe 1310 01:19:33,320 --> 01:19:36,760 that that that probably those routes probably are in danger 1311 01:19:36,760 --> 01:19:39,680 and that's probably where an increase not camp will come for 1312 01:19:39,680 --> 01:19:43,160 Chubb. Yeah, All right, Dolphins 1313 01:19:43,160 --> 01:19:46,000 running backs, I think you gotta like this is the spot where you 1314 01:19:46,000 --> 01:19:50,240 buy the dip. Is there is there anything left 1315 01:19:50,360 --> 01:19:52,480 with Mostert? I kind of I liked him as a 1316 01:19:52,480 --> 01:19:55,800 really sneaky dart throw last week against the Colts. 1317 01:19:56,680 --> 01:19:59,480 The offense just just putrid. They they tried to run, they 1318 01:19:59,480 --> 01:20:01,400 just couldn't really get anything going. 1319 01:20:02,240 --> 01:20:04,920 And then Monster has the really costly fumble for them. 1320 01:20:05,520 --> 01:20:08,560 So is there any point to playing Monster any more? 1321 01:20:08,560 --> 01:20:11,120 Like can he still have the big weeks? 1322 01:20:11,280 --> 01:20:15,600 I guess for me it's if he does, it's just simply on the back of 1323 01:20:15,880 --> 01:20:18,600 scoring a million touchdowns like he did last year. 1324 01:20:18,600 --> 01:20:21,440 Like Dolphins are a productive offense again and he gets some 1325 01:20:21,440 --> 01:20:24,360 goal line carries. But we already saw them willing 1326 01:20:24,360 --> 01:20:26,160 to give goal line touches to a Chan. 1327 01:20:26,160 --> 01:20:30,960 So can you play monster or or not And and are you? 1328 01:20:30,960 --> 01:20:37,360 No, I don't think you can. Like they played they they 1329 01:20:37,360 --> 01:20:44,480 played tree running backs here at Chan was the lead and but so 1330 01:20:44,480 --> 01:20:49,520 they had 72 plays overall, which certainly a decent amount. 1331 01:20:50,000 --> 01:20:54,280 And of those Moser was on the field for 22 of them. 1332 01:20:55,720 --> 01:20:58,000 So that's not honestly, that's not bad. 1333 01:20:58,600 --> 01:21:01,160 I think. I think that's like in a pinch 1334 01:21:01,160 --> 01:21:06,480 you can start that for sure in in redraft, but in terms of like 1335 01:21:06,480 --> 01:21:10,280 DFSI think that's completely unplayable. 1336 01:21:11,520 --> 01:21:15,880 I've got a got a couple questions for you on a Chan 1337 01:21:15,880 --> 01:21:19,520 here. So here's some guys going after 1338 01:21:19,520 --> 01:21:22,840 a Chan this week. He gets they get the Cardinals. 1339 01:21:23,280 --> 01:21:28,520 I want to know, are you taking a Chan over these guys or or is 1340 01:21:28,520 --> 01:21:31,200 this a signal that his price might be a little too frothy? 1341 01:21:32,080 --> 01:21:39,320 DeAndre Swift A Chan or Swift? And I think, I think you do want 1342 01:21:39,440 --> 01:21:43,040 a Chan over Swift, like especially if you're telling me 1343 01:21:43,360 --> 01:21:46,840 she was back. I, I, I think you do want that 1344 01:21:47,760 --> 01:21:56,560 Josh Jacobs and that, that that seems close to 5050 to me, 1345 01:21:57,640 --> 01:22:02,640 Javante Williams and you, you want you want a Chan over 1346 01:22:02,840 --> 01:22:05,320 Javante, I think agree. JK. 1347 01:22:05,320 --> 01:22:07,640 Dobbins. JK Dobbins. 1348 01:22:08,040 --> 01:22:11,360 Yeah, I think you. I think you also want a Chan 1349 01:22:11,360 --> 01:22:14,560 over Dobbins. That one's close for me just 1350 01:22:14,560 --> 01:22:17,880 because you get the New Orleans match up and they're they're 1351 01:22:17,880 --> 01:22:23,600 just feeding Dobbins 17 opportunities last game, 27 1352 01:22:23,600 --> 01:22:27,400 opportunities the game before 17 opportunities the game prior to 1353 01:22:27,400 --> 01:22:33,960 that that that one's close for me, but OK. 1354 01:22:33,960 --> 01:22:37,600 It sounds like you think that a Chan is is reasonably priced 1355 01:22:37,640 --> 01:22:39,360 though. Yeah. 1356 01:22:39,400 --> 01:22:41,720 Yeah. Well, I mean, obviously we 1357 01:22:41,720 --> 01:22:46,800 haven't seen it this year, but he does have like that that 6th 1358 01:22:46,800 --> 01:22:51,720 gear upside of like he gets in space and he breaks some huge 1359 01:22:51,760 --> 01:22:54,400 plays. And I think, I think that 1360 01:22:54,400 --> 01:22:57,960 element is is worth paying a little more for than the guys 1361 01:22:57,960 --> 01:23:01,160 mentioned. Yeah, that that makes a ton of 1362 01:23:01,160 --> 01:23:06,240 sense. All right, the let's see here. 1363 01:23:08,960 --> 01:23:10,800 I think we can. We can just go to the efficiency 1364 01:23:10,800 --> 01:23:21,880 charts now here. So I'll, I'll let you explain 1365 01:23:22,000 --> 01:23:23,920 what we're looking at. Here, Oh yeah, sorry. 1366 01:23:24,360 --> 01:23:28,000 And we've got receiving expected points on the vertical axis, 1367 01:23:28,000 --> 01:23:31,280 we've got rushing expected points on the horizontal and 1368 01:23:31,280 --> 01:23:35,240 size of the bubble corresponds to fantasy points over expected. 1369 01:23:35,400 --> 01:23:39,520 So bigger bubble means more positive efficiency. 1370 01:23:41,520 --> 01:23:45,600 And then I know your, your first kind of note was that was a 1371 01:23:45,600 --> 01:23:52,120 couple of 2V twos, Josh Jacobs versus Giovante and. 1372 01:23:52,280 --> 01:23:55,600 They're right next to each other in the middle of the chart in 1373 01:23:55,600 --> 01:23:58,240 that 10 to 15 expected fantasy point band. 1374 01:23:58,920 --> 01:24:01,280 Similar. Similar efficiency too. 1375 01:24:02,360 --> 01:24:07,880 That is interesting. And I think I think you want 1376 01:24:07,880 --> 01:24:12,760 Jacobs because of the better offense I but it's it's it's 1377 01:24:12,760 --> 01:24:14,520 it's that's not a conviction play. 1378 01:24:14,520 --> 01:24:17,400 I I, I think I think you can make the case for Javonte. 1379 01:24:18,320 --> 01:24:22,080 Yeah, I, I do think it's helpful to frame some of these running 1380 01:24:22,080 --> 01:24:25,160 backs like that because everyone thinks Javonte is so gross. 1381 01:24:25,200 --> 01:24:29,560 And I know a lot of people in our, you know, that kind of 1382 01:24:29,560 --> 01:24:33,520 think of the game similarly to us would also think Jacobs is 1383 01:24:33,520 --> 01:24:36,920 gross. But I, I just see so much stuff 1384 01:24:36,920 --> 01:24:40,400 about how good Josh Jacobs is and how he's on such a good 1385 01:24:40,400 --> 01:24:42,840 offense. And it's like, I mean, really, 1386 01:24:42,840 --> 01:24:46,080 when you like, yeah, all that is being factored in here. 1387 01:24:46,080 --> 01:24:48,800 When you look at his expected fantasy points, his efficiency, 1388 01:24:49,120 --> 01:24:52,640 it comes out right around Javonte Williams, who's also 1389 01:24:52,640 --> 01:24:57,520 right next to our our next guy, Dijon Robinson, who's also 1390 01:24:57,520 --> 01:25:00,640 similar to them in expected fantasy points and efficiency. 1391 01:25:01,040 --> 01:25:03,400 But I, I compared him to the other Bea Robinson. 1392 01:25:03,480 --> 01:25:09,960 In this little 1V1 of Brian Robinson, who do you prefer this 1393 01:25:09,960 --> 01:25:12,320 week? And of course, I think we got to 1394 01:25:12,320 --> 01:25:14,880 take cost into consideration here 'cause Bijon's, you know, 1395 01:25:14,880 --> 01:25:18,640 going to be like a first round pick and Brian Robinson goes 1396 01:25:18,640 --> 01:25:22,400 much later than that. Who do you prefer this week, 1397 01:25:22,400 --> 01:25:25,320 Bijon or Brian Robinson? And who? 1398 01:25:25,800 --> 01:25:28,480 I think you told me who did The Who did the commanders play? 1399 01:25:29,880 --> 01:25:36,400 The commanders get, oh, I just had that, sorry, my brain is, 1400 01:25:36,560 --> 01:25:42,280 oh, the bears, the bears. The Bears, so tough offense and 1401 01:25:42,760 --> 01:25:49,600 you're maybe without your starting quarterback and I mean, 1402 01:25:49,600 --> 01:25:55,440 obviously you strongly prefer Bijan and without Price. 1403 01:25:56,360 --> 01:25:58,880 And then what round does Brian Robinson go in? 1404 01:26:00,000 --> 01:26:03,760 I've seen him go as late as like the late 5th, early sixth round. 1405 01:26:04,000 --> 01:26:07,320 OK, So he's basically free is what you're telling me. 1406 01:26:07,960 --> 01:26:15,200 And so Austin Eckler is back. He he runs the passing routes 1407 01:26:16,440 --> 01:26:23,320 whereas Brian Robinson so Brian Robinson is there something I 1408 01:26:23,320 --> 01:26:26,040 don't know here that Brian Robinson 18% Russia. 1409 01:26:26,800 --> 01:26:29,520 Sorry, I'll use just use numbers. 1410 01:26:30,040 --> 01:26:35,560 Brian Robinson 12 rush attempts. You think the Jeremy Nichols 1411 01:26:36,360 --> 01:26:39,920 Mcnichols is just a game script? I think it's coming off the 1412 01:26:39,920 --> 01:26:42,960 knee, coming off the knee injury and it was a game where they 1413 01:26:42,960 --> 01:26:46,600 didn't need to use him because you know, he's he's been, he 1414 01:26:46,600 --> 01:26:48,120 missed a game with a knee injury. 1415 01:26:48,120 --> 01:26:51,360 He was limited the game before and they barely, barely the game 1416 01:26:51,360 --> 01:26:55,200 that he played with the knee injury was like, I feel like 1417 01:26:55,200 --> 01:26:57,040 halfway through the game. They just must have been like, 1418 01:26:57,520 --> 01:27:00,200 we shouldn't have made you active, but you're you're going 1419 01:27:00,200 --> 01:27:04,240 to hurt yourself more because he got, I can't remember how many 1420 01:27:04,240 --> 01:27:07,960 touches he got, but it was a very small number that came that 1421 01:27:07,960 --> 01:27:11,360 he's active with a knee injury, that he misses, that he's active 1422 01:27:11,360 --> 01:27:14,440 here against the just. Absolutely. 1423 01:27:15,360 --> 01:27:18,680 OK. But the, the, the kind of 1424 01:27:18,680 --> 01:27:22,080 context to his cheap price is that he's kind of injured. 1425 01:27:22,840 --> 01:27:27,440 Yeah, he, he was injured. We don't now he's, you know, 3-4 1426 01:27:27,440 --> 01:27:30,680 weeks removed from the injury. It really there's, there's a lot 1427 01:27:30,680 --> 01:27:33,200 of question on how healthy he is right now. 1428 01:27:34,040 --> 01:27:37,960 And then I think for me, the bigger driver is they're going 1429 01:27:37,960 --> 01:27:40,320 to play a real game. They're not going to play the 1430 01:27:40,320 --> 01:27:43,680 Panthers this week. And I do think the Commanders 1431 01:27:43,680 --> 01:27:46,040 are pretty interested in in winning here. 1432 01:27:46,920 --> 01:27:50,320 And if they don't have Jaden Daniels like I, I could really 1433 01:27:50,320 --> 01:27:53,800 see them having to lean heavily on Brian Robinson if he's 1434 01:27:53,800 --> 01:27:55,680 healthy enough for them to do that. 1435 01:27:55,680 --> 01:27:59,400 So I think there's quite a bit of volatility on Brian Robinson 1436 01:27:59,400 --> 01:28:02,400 this week. You could end up with he's still 1437 01:28:02,400 --> 01:28:05,320 not 100%. They play a strong defense. 1438 01:28:05,600 --> 01:28:08,000 They don't have their quarterback that is making 1439 01:28:08,000 --> 01:28:11,920 everything hum. He's just a terrible bust or you 1440 01:28:11,920 --> 01:28:14,240 could end up with they have to run. 1441 01:28:14,560 --> 01:28:18,240 The whole plane is built out of Brian Robinson and he's healthy 1442 01:28:19,160 --> 01:28:21,440 and he's able to get there at a pretty cheap cost. 1443 01:28:21,440 --> 01:28:24,040 So here's one that was interesting to me. 1444 01:28:24,040 --> 01:28:27,480 I did. I, I wanted to kind of get your 1445 01:28:27,480 --> 01:28:30,560 feeling on it though, because I'm not 100% confident on him. 1446 01:28:31,400 --> 01:28:33,600 Yeah. I mean, you obviously have risk 1447 01:28:33,600 --> 01:28:38,160 there and I'm going to, I'm, I'm using the the road of his 1448 01:28:38,160 --> 01:28:46,160 Screener here to try and I'm going to filter down to to just 1449 01:28:46,160 --> 01:28:48,480 the first 3/4. I don't think that's like 1450 01:28:48,480 --> 01:28:56,320 perfect, but it'll get it gives a better sense of what happened 1451 01:28:56,680 --> 01:28:58,840 if you just exclude the fourth quarter. 1452 01:28:59,040 --> 01:29:01,200 Exclude. Exclude the 3rd as well. 1453 01:29:01,200 --> 01:29:03,760 The game was over, is super over. 1454 01:29:03,760 --> 01:29:10,240 OK, OK, I can do that. So I'm excluding the 3rd and 1455 01:29:12,640 --> 01:29:17,120 search the database. I'm, I'll also just look at our 1456 01:29:17,120 --> 01:29:20,280 running backs. Sorry, looking up data here in 1457 01:29:20,280 --> 01:29:25,400 real time. So, so you had eight rush 1458 01:29:25,400 --> 01:29:29,280 attempts for Brian Robinson, 2 for Eckler, one for Jeremy 1459 01:29:29,280 --> 01:29:34,040 Mcnichols. OK, so that, that kind of 1460 01:29:34,040 --> 01:29:37,920 indicates that he was, he was the primary, he's the primary 1461 01:29:37,920 --> 01:29:39,480 player in the, in the first half. 1462 01:29:40,240 --> 01:29:47,160 And then when the game was over and they, yeah, that that's when 1463 01:29:47,320 --> 01:29:54,440 Mcnichols started playing. So, so that's when Mcnichols got 1464 01:29:54,440 --> 01:29:58,920 6 attempts, Eckler got 2 and Brian Robinson still got 4. 1465 01:30:01,000 --> 01:30:07,160 So yeah, I, I, I think it's fair to say that he's, he's very much 1466 01:30:07,160 --> 01:30:11,240 the lead and, and, and, and will be in a competitive game. 1467 01:30:11,400 --> 01:30:15,000 So I, I, I, I, I think you've got the, I think you've got a 1468 01:30:15,000 --> 01:30:19,160 pretty good case for the, the upside there, the upside 1469 01:30:19,160 --> 01:30:22,120 scenario that you've played out. All enjoyed drafting him for the 1470 01:30:22,120 --> 01:30:24,600 next one day before he gets steamed up. 1471 01:30:26,760 --> 01:30:33,120 OK, the oh, I think we talked about Dobbins very briefly. 1472 01:30:35,200 --> 01:30:37,400 He I believe he lives on the next chart. 1473 01:30:37,400 --> 01:30:39,960 So let's let's flip to the next chart real quick. 1474 01:30:43,120 --> 01:30:44,760 Or no, sorry, he's on the previous one. 1475 01:30:44,760 --> 01:30:46,800 I lied. I just couldn't find him. 1476 01:30:48,200 --> 01:30:54,160 Where is he at? He's right here, right here, 1477 01:30:54,840 --> 01:30:55,960 right on the 15th. Hiding. 1478 01:30:56,080 --> 01:30:57,760 Hiding right by Chuba Hubbard. Yeah. 1479 01:30:58,880 --> 01:31:01,880 I mean he's got a really good spot against this Saints run 1480 01:31:01,880 --> 01:31:07,960 defense and Saints Saints rendy has looked absolutely atrocious. 1481 01:31:10,320 --> 01:31:13,240 And that's The thing is that's all the chargers want to do. 1482 01:31:14,000 --> 01:31:18,080 I this could be just one of those disgusting games where 1483 01:31:18,360 --> 01:31:20,960 there's literally no offense outside of JK Dobbins. 1484 01:31:20,960 --> 01:31:23,840 You know, like I I wouldn't be surprised if you get sub 100 1485 01:31:23,840 --> 01:31:26,600 passing yards from the chargers this game because I don't think 1486 01:31:26,600 --> 01:31:28,160 the Saints can stop them on the ground. 1487 01:31:29,640 --> 01:31:33,960 Honestly, if you want to, if you want a really interesting. 1488 01:31:36,440 --> 01:31:39,360 Is there any I want to I want to see? 1489 01:31:39,360 --> 01:31:43,120 Are there any reduced slates where like small slates where 1490 01:31:43,120 --> 01:31:49,000 let's see I want the small. Are you saying the primary way 1491 01:31:49,000 --> 01:31:52,120 to play Dobbins would be in a small slate? 1492 01:31:53,120 --> 01:31:56,760 What I actually want is I want to play both Dobbins and Vidal 1493 01:31:56,760 --> 01:32:00,200 in the same line up and they are an afternoon game. 1494 01:32:00,560 --> 01:32:05,360 So if you're a sicko that plays like afternoon only slates, I 1495 01:32:05,360 --> 01:32:09,680 don't hate doing a Dobbins Vidal, just this is how the 1496 01:32:09,680 --> 01:32:14,440 Chargers move the ball. The Saints cannot stop it and 1497 01:32:14,520 --> 01:32:17,480 the game gets so out of hand, which I also think is very 1498 01:32:17,520 --> 01:32:21,800 reasonable that Vidal is is getting to eat as well in 1499 01:32:21,800 --> 01:32:24,320 garbage time. I wish this was a showdown. 1500 01:32:24,320 --> 01:32:27,360 I mean, they'll have a small showdown slate for it, but like, 1501 01:32:27,440 --> 01:32:31,360 man, if this was a a prime time showdown slate, I'd be jamming 1502 01:32:31,360 --> 01:32:33,680 so much Dobbins and Vidal together. 1503 01:32:34,280 --> 01:32:36,200 But yeah, I think it's an interesting spot. 1504 01:32:37,840 --> 01:32:40,800 Yeah, and makes makes sense for sure. 1505 01:32:42,920 --> 01:32:46,400 OK, now we can actually move to the next chart. 1506 01:32:47,480 --> 01:32:50,440 There's two individual running backs I want to talk about 1507 01:32:50,440 --> 01:32:55,320 before we do our legendary running back midway through the 1508 01:32:55,320 --> 01:32:58,920 season. Abouts check in the first one. 1509 01:32:59,200 --> 01:33:02,880 His bubble is kind of obscuring some other bubbles here, but 1510 01:33:02,880 --> 01:33:06,280 it's smack dab in the middle. The big green bubble of Jameer 1511 01:33:06,280 --> 01:33:08,400 Gibbs. Guy's pretty efficient. 1512 01:33:08,640 --> 01:33:10,880 Maybe the Lions should give this guy more touches. 1513 01:33:10,880 --> 01:33:12,680 What do you think? Yeah. 1514 01:33:12,680 --> 01:33:16,000 And obviously they, they, they established Jameer Gibbs. 1515 01:33:16,480 --> 01:33:19,040 Yeah, this week worked out pretty well for them. 1516 01:33:19,920 --> 01:33:23,160 And. He he looks. 1517 01:33:23,280 --> 01:33:24,640 Like a good pick? Yeah. 1518 01:33:24,680 --> 01:33:28,240 He's just, he's the, he delivers the explosive plays. 1519 01:33:28,240 --> 01:33:31,680 And I know that Montgomery, it has delivered explosive plays 1520 01:33:31,680 --> 01:33:33,360 into his own right. I don't want to take anything 1521 01:33:33,360 --> 01:33:37,240 away from Montgomery, but man, just like the no. 1522 01:33:37,360 --> 01:33:39,240 Please take something away from Montgomery. 1523 01:33:39,640 --> 01:33:44,160 The the danger, the threat that Gibbs poses to a defense, like 1524 01:33:44,440 --> 01:33:47,960 if you fuck up against this guy, like it could be a house call at 1525 01:33:47,960 --> 01:33:51,560 any, you know, that is really tantalizing. 1526 01:33:52,880 --> 01:33:55,360 So, yeah, that's that's really all I had to say. 1527 01:33:55,360 --> 01:34:00,880 Jamir Gibbs is really good. We had a good question from Nick 1528 01:34:00,880 --> 01:34:03,480 in the chat. So yeah, 5.7 yards per 10th 1529 01:34:03,480 --> 01:34:05,800 seems good. Yeah, we had a good. 1530 01:34:05,920 --> 01:34:08,960 Connections price in the dog bowls, Nick. 1531 01:34:08,960 --> 01:34:13,440 It is reflective of where he's living on this chart right now. 1532 01:34:14,040 --> 01:34:19,360 He is a a mid first rounder. So yeah, he he's going early. 1533 01:34:19,360 --> 01:34:21,560 I've seen him go pick six, pick eight. 1534 01:34:22,480 --> 01:34:24,520 Yeah, you're going to have to pay up if you want Joe Mixon 1535 01:34:25,160 --> 01:34:28,400 this week. The other guy I wanted to 1536 01:34:28,400 --> 01:34:31,960 comment on here is a guy that's getting really good usage. 1537 01:34:31,960 --> 01:34:35,040 He's living in this 15 to 20 expected fantasy points band. 1538 01:34:35,040 --> 01:34:38,800 That's Tony Pollard. The problem And and he looks 1539 01:34:38,800 --> 01:34:41,920 efficient here 'cause he had a couple efficient games. 1540 01:34:42,560 --> 01:34:44,840 Really want a lot of this efficiency. 1541 01:34:45,080 --> 01:34:49,360 Like if you fixed one play here. And by fixed, I mean like have 1542 01:34:49,720 --> 01:34:52,000 any kind of effort to to tackle him. 1543 01:34:52,720 --> 01:34:57,640 But it was that play against the Colts two weeks ago where it's 1544 01:34:57,640 --> 01:35:00,560 like third in Infinity and they're like, I don't know, a 1545 01:35:00,560 --> 01:35:03,560 little under 30 yards out from the from the end zone. 1546 01:35:04,160 --> 01:35:06,960 And they just run a draw play 'cause there's like no hope of 1547 01:35:06,960 --> 01:35:10,120 actually getting a first down. They're just trying to get in 1548 01:35:10,120 --> 01:35:12,640 closer for a field goal. So they run a draw play. 1549 01:35:13,080 --> 01:35:18,720 And the only guy who like really gets a real chance at tackling 1550 01:35:18,720 --> 01:35:23,400 Tony Pollard, like closes his eyes, bends over 90° and just 1551 01:35:23,400 --> 01:35:27,560 like Rams him with his shoulder. No attempt to wrap up at all. 1552 01:35:28,080 --> 01:35:31,600 And Pollard just like bounces off like, what are we doing? 1553 01:35:31,600 --> 01:35:36,000 And just run straight into the IT was like the least not to 1554 01:35:36,000 --> 01:35:37,360 take anything away from Tony Pollard. 1555 01:35:37,360 --> 01:35:40,320 He did everything correct on the play, but it was like the play 1556 01:35:40,320 --> 01:35:42,720 that least should have been a touchdown in the history of 1557 01:35:42,720 --> 01:35:44,760 touchdowns. And it just happened to be a 1558 01:35:44,760 --> 01:35:47,440 touchdown. I I have to imagine that his 1559 01:35:47,440 --> 01:35:52,640 expected fantasy points on that play were like under one and he 1560 01:35:52,680 --> 01:35:56,960 ended up getting like 9. So that's doing a lot of heavy 1561 01:35:56,960 --> 01:35:59,200 lifting there on the efficiency for him. 1562 01:35:59,200 --> 01:36:03,880 But this offense is so bad. I just I wonder like can I even 1563 01:36:03,880 --> 01:36:06,960 play Pollard with a really good role or is this offense too 1564 01:36:06,960 --> 01:36:10,120 shitty to realize his expected fantasy points? 1565 01:36:11,280 --> 01:36:13,320 Yeah. So he he he's been under 1566 01:36:13,320 --> 01:36:20,400 expectation on the yardage and so he's got 54 yards under 1567 01:36:20,400 --> 01:36:28,040 expected per FF, not FFPC at PFF and then that translate to 4.3 1568 01:36:28,040 --> 01:36:31,760 yards per attempt. So I guess his, his, his 1569 01:36:31,760 --> 01:36:35,520 efficiency overall, I guess has been fine. 1570 01:36:35,560 --> 01:36:40,800 It's been OK and had a really bad day week seven really bad 1571 01:36:40,800 --> 01:36:46,880 day and just completely they they the the defense just was 1572 01:36:46,880 --> 01:36:53,440 all over him because he had 43 yards under expected this week. 1573 01:36:53,920 --> 01:36:57,680 And then you can you can kind of see his overall efficiency on 1574 01:36:57,680 --> 01:37:00,680 the season is is is pretty is actually kind of neutral. 1575 01:37:02,560 --> 01:37:06,480 So you you do have a good role there, but you're not at you're 1576 01:37:06,480 --> 01:37:08,440 not seeing a lot of efficiency there. 1577 01:37:09,040 --> 01:37:15,080 So I think that's pretty worthwhile for where he went in 1578 01:37:15,080 --> 01:37:18,440 in basketball season. But I don't know if this is like 1579 01:37:18,480 --> 01:37:22,320 a this. You need this guy cheap to make 1580 01:37:22,320 --> 01:37:28,400 him work in AGPP type scoring format or or tournament. 1581 01:37:29,400 --> 01:37:31,920 Yeah. OK. 1582 01:37:31,920 --> 01:37:35,560 Couple, couple questions from the chat that I do want to 1583 01:37:35,560 --> 01:37:37,120 answer. We've got, we've had two 1584 01:37:37,120 --> 01:37:43,240 questions about Steelers running backs, Warren, Warren with 14.3 1585 01:37:43,240 --> 01:37:45,440 expected fantasy points last week with Russ. 1586 01:37:46,320 --> 01:37:48,680 Do either the Steelers RV's benefit from Russ starting over 1587 01:37:48,680 --> 01:37:52,840 the over fields? I mean I think you get a very, 1588 01:37:52,840 --> 01:37:57,200 very small benefit to Warren where you're going to have less 1589 01:37:57,280 --> 01:38:02,000 of the drop back attempts turn into quarterback rushes and more 1590 01:38:02,000 --> 01:38:04,400 of those will turn into check downs to Warren. 1591 01:38:04,880 --> 01:38:08,160 So that's like a very small positive for him. 1592 01:38:09,680 --> 01:38:13,000 I really, I don't think the offense is better with Russ than 1593 01:38:13,000 --> 01:38:16,440 with Fields. One, one thing I did see that 1594 01:38:16,440 --> 01:38:20,600 was pretty interesting was the stacked box rate was 1595 01:38:20,600 --> 01:38:25,360 substantially lower with Russ. It's kind of interesting where 1596 01:38:25,400 --> 01:38:29,880 they really, really the defenses were really, really giving 1597 01:38:29,880 --> 01:38:33,080 Fields a lot of attention in the rushing game and stacking the 1598 01:38:33,080 --> 01:38:38,200 box heavily when he was playing. So I I guess it also is probably 1599 01:38:38,200 --> 01:38:41,480 a slight positive for both running backs if defenses 1600 01:38:41,480 --> 01:38:45,000 continue to play the Steelers in that way where they don't stack 1601 01:38:45,000 --> 01:38:46,760 the box against them and give them really light. 1602 01:38:46,760 --> 01:38:48,200 Fronts, right? And it's hard. 1603 01:38:48,440 --> 01:38:51,640 It's hard to know how much that is like Jeff's kind of 1604 01:38:51,640 --> 01:38:54,160 defensive. Loss, that's what I was going to 1605 01:38:54,160 --> 01:38:55,840 say as well. It might just be a one game 1606 01:38:55,840 --> 01:38:57,840 thing and so I I want to watch it. 1607 01:38:57,840 --> 01:39:00,320 I'm not saying like this is the truth going forward, but it's 1608 01:39:00,320 --> 01:39:01,760 something where I want to pay attention to it. 1609 01:39:02,200 --> 01:39:04,200 Right, right. If we see it again, it's a 1610 01:39:04,200 --> 01:39:08,920 trend. And then Bobby Boom coming with 1611 01:39:08,920 --> 01:39:13,640 the all caps energy in the chat. So I will answer with some all 1612 01:39:13,640 --> 01:39:17,880 caps energy. He wants to know two legendary 1613 01:39:17,880 --> 01:39:22,280 locks this weekend please. The man needs his legendary 1614 01:39:22,280 --> 01:39:24,640 locks. I'll give you the first one. 1615 01:39:24,800 --> 01:39:28,200 He's right here on the chart and he's going to segue into the 1616 01:39:28,200 --> 01:39:32,240 conversation about running backs with legitimate legendary upside 1617 01:39:32,240 --> 01:39:35,880 this season, and that's Kenneth Locker. 1618 01:39:36,240 --> 01:39:38,720 Go ahead and lock Kenneth Walker in. 1619 01:39:39,160 --> 01:39:42,440 He is an absolute smash this week and every week. 1620 01:39:42,440 --> 01:39:46,680 His role's incredible. Insane expected fantasy points 1621 01:39:46,920 --> 01:39:48,680 in the receiving game, which I love. 1622 01:39:48,680 --> 01:39:52,640 The guy is game script proof, making incredible catches as 1623 01:39:52,640 --> 01:39:54,720 well. His receiving touchdown this 1624 01:39:54,720 --> 01:39:58,960 week while he was absolutely burping up bourbon in the end 1625 01:39:58,960 --> 01:40:03,760 zone from his birthday hangover. Yeah, Kenneth Walker is awesome. 1626 01:40:03,760 --> 01:40:06,520 Super fun back. Happy to see him finally getting 1627 01:40:06,840 --> 01:40:10,120 his day in the sun this season because I know he was a guy that 1628 01:40:10,120 --> 01:40:12,280 a lot of people are excited about as a prospect. 1629 01:40:13,080 --> 01:40:16,480 He's my first legendary lock of this week. 1630 01:40:17,040 --> 01:40:19,640 And Bobby, boom, I'm going to make you stay tuned if you want 1631 01:40:19,640 --> 01:40:21,760 the second one because it's not a running back. 1632 01:40:22,240 --> 01:40:26,640 But let's let's transition to the last thing I want to talk 1633 01:40:26,640 --> 01:40:30,320 about on this chart. I want to just do our check in. 1634 01:40:30,320 --> 01:40:33,160 We've done this a couple times before, but I want to check in 1635 01:40:33,160 --> 01:40:36,400 and see which of these running backs you think a legendary 1636 01:40:36,400 --> 01:40:38,200 season is still on the table for. 1637 01:40:38,320 --> 01:40:40,840 I think we've talked about all these guys enough that we don't 1638 01:40:40,840 --> 01:40:43,080 need to spend a ton of time on them. 1639 01:40:43,080 --> 01:40:45,280 I just just hit me with the yes or no on it. 1640 01:40:45,440 --> 01:40:48,920 So #1 Ken Walker. Yeah. 1641 01:40:50,080 --> 01:40:53,600 Breece Hall. The rest of way, yes. 1642 01:40:54,760 --> 01:40:58,680 DeAndre Swift. No. 1643 01:40:59,680 --> 01:41:04,720 Joe Mixon. I mean, by the numbers it's a 1644 01:41:04,720 --> 01:41:08,840 yes, but I don't. Damn, I don't believe it. 1645 01:41:09,320 --> 01:41:13,520 I don't believe that that this he he looks, he doesn't look bad 1646 01:41:13,600 --> 01:41:17,400 either. But I, I, I have a hard time 1647 01:41:17,400 --> 01:41:19,280 seeing this, that this be a thing. 1648 01:41:19,520 --> 01:41:21,400 It could be a bias but I have a hard time with it. 1649 01:41:21,680 --> 01:41:25,120 No, I think it's I think so much of it is on the back of volume. 1650 01:41:25,160 --> 01:41:28,080 And then he had a couple really efficient plays against the 1651 01:41:28,080 --> 01:41:30,640 Patriots that I don't I just think are not something that's 1652 01:41:30,640 --> 01:41:33,960 going to be terribly replicable, at least not at the rate that 1653 01:41:33,960 --> 01:41:35,480 they're currently showing up in the stats. 1654 01:41:35,480 --> 01:41:38,160 So makes sense. All right, last one, Derrick 1655 01:41:38,160 --> 01:41:45,120 Henry. I I think that you get enough 1656 01:41:45,160 --> 01:41:50,000 games for the Ravens this year where it's not just establishing 1657 01:41:50,000 --> 01:41:56,160 it where where he he's probably not a legendary season like we 1658 01:41:56,320 --> 01:41:59,480 almost it could happen, but how do they just dominate every 1659 01:41:59,480 --> 01:42:00,160 game? I. 1660 01:42:01,160 --> 01:42:04,560 We almost had it. We almost had it this last game, 1661 01:42:04,560 --> 01:42:06,600 right? He had 4 touches at the half. 1662 01:42:06,880 --> 01:42:09,200 They're using Justice Hill a ton. 1663 01:42:09,360 --> 01:42:13,520 What I really liked to see from the Ravens in this game was we 1664 01:42:13,520 --> 01:42:16,080 had talked about this extensively before the season 1665 01:42:16,080 --> 01:42:19,280 drafting basketball teams, about how we really thought the Ravens 1666 01:42:19,280 --> 01:42:21,960 pass rate was going to go up this year because their defense 1667 01:42:21,960 --> 01:42:26,120 was going to get worse, which it has and Todd Munkin is willing 1668 01:42:26,120 --> 01:42:29,240 to pass the ball, but they just didn't need to last year. 1669 01:42:29,240 --> 01:42:31,640 So they just, they were beating the brakes off team. 1670 01:42:31,640 --> 01:42:35,280 So they ran it a bunch. And then it it really felt like 1671 01:42:35,280 --> 01:42:37,800 we were wrong. And the Ravens wanted to run it. 1672 01:42:37,800 --> 01:42:40,240 And I mean, it kind of meshed with their behavior this 1673 01:42:40,240 --> 01:42:41,720 offseason. You go get Derrick Henry. 1674 01:42:42,440 --> 01:42:46,640 But this first half of this game, to me really showed like, 1675 01:42:46,640 --> 01:42:50,040 OK, yeah, all you need is the Ravens to be in a very 1676 01:42:50,040 --> 01:42:52,920 competitive game where the other team looks capable of scoring 1677 01:42:52,920 --> 01:42:57,720 points and they feel threatened. And they are not like they they 1678 01:42:57,720 --> 01:43:01,280 were putting Henry on ice in the first half because they're like, 1679 01:43:01,320 --> 01:43:02,720 yeah. Oh yeah, the commentators were 1680 01:43:02,720 --> 01:43:05,120 complaining about it. Why don't they play Derrick 1681 01:43:05,120 --> 01:43:06,960 Henry more? It's the two-minute drill. 1682 01:43:07,080 --> 01:43:08,560 He doesn't play in two. Minutes. 1683 01:43:08,680 --> 01:43:11,480 Yeah. And it so to me, it was like 1684 01:43:12,160 --> 01:43:16,920 signs of hope that you can get these huge, huge games from the 1685 01:43:16,920 --> 01:43:20,720 Ravens passing like the side of the the Ravens passing game can 1686 01:43:20,720 --> 01:43:25,000 actually produce extremely well, which makes me feel like I 1687 01:43:25,000 --> 01:43:27,240 wasn't crazy about my thesis this offseason. 1688 01:43:27,240 --> 01:43:31,760 It's just they just also happen to be so freaking good that it's 1689 01:43:31,800 --> 01:43:35,600 it's gonna be hard for them to not be in circumstances for 1690 01:43:35,600 --> 01:43:37,760 Derrick Henry to put the game away. 1691 01:43:38,320 --> 01:43:41,440 So that is that's the tough part. 1692 01:43:41,840 --> 01:43:46,080 But I, I agree with you. It's it's hard for him to have a 1693 01:43:46,080 --> 01:43:49,320 a legendary season just because it really it's predicated on 1694 01:43:49,320 --> 01:43:52,000 them beating the shit out of a bunch of teams which. 1695 01:43:52,000 --> 01:43:53,280 Every team. Every team. 1696 01:43:54,080 --> 01:43:57,760 Now, now, hang on though. Let me give you their upcoming 1697 01:43:57,760 --> 01:44:00,920 schedule here. And you, you just let me. 1698 01:44:00,920 --> 01:44:03,760 Know I looked at it. When I get to a team, they're 1699 01:44:03,760 --> 01:44:07,080 not going to kick the shit out of them because it's the Browns, 1700 01:44:07,280 --> 01:44:10,440 it's the Broncos, it's the Bengals. 1701 01:44:10,440 --> 01:44:14,160 The Bengals should be the Bengals should be an electric 1702 01:44:14,160 --> 01:44:15,560 game. I mean, we already saw a 1703 01:44:15,760 --> 01:44:20,640 fireworks game earlier. The Steelers, the Chargers, the 1704 01:44:20,640 --> 01:44:25,640 Eagles could be interesting, but then the giant Steelers, Texans 1705 01:44:25,640 --> 01:44:28,360 could be interesting and then the Browns to close the season. 1706 01:44:29,200 --> 01:44:33,440 I I kinda, I mean. You know, it doesn't take a lot 1707 01:44:34,080 --> 01:44:38,280 to go wrong for a game to be pretty competitive, even against 1708 01:44:38,280 --> 01:44:39,840 the worst team. That's it. 1709 01:44:39,840 --> 01:44:42,200 Couldn't take that much to go wrong for the game to be 1710 01:44:42,200 --> 01:44:44,360 competitive. Yeah, or at least competitive 1711 01:44:44,360 --> 01:44:47,400 for for 1/2, but even right this game. 1712 01:44:47,440 --> 01:44:52,960 Or 3/4 of the game. Or like, yeah, and enough where 1713 01:44:52,960 --> 01:44:56,320 they're not just like salting the game the whole game with 1714 01:44:56,320 --> 01:44:57,560 Henry. Yeah. 1715 01:44:58,160 --> 01:45:01,320 All right, let's move on to the tight end charts. 1716 01:45:01,960 --> 01:45:06,000 Yeah, I'll let you go ahead and explain what we're looking at 1717 01:45:06,000 --> 01:45:10,240 here. And so tight end utilization and 1718 01:45:10,240 --> 01:45:15,120 efficiency here we are looking at their, their route percentage 1719 01:45:15,200 --> 01:45:19,400 as a percentage of team drop backs, what percentage of those 1720 01:45:19,400 --> 01:45:23,480 routes are earning a target and then how far down the field they 1721 01:45:23,480 --> 01:45:26,560 are earning a target. And I, I don't, I don't think 1722 01:45:26,560 --> 01:45:31,800 there's too many surprises on here, at least for me anyway. 1723 01:45:32,280 --> 01:45:35,760 So I, I feel like we can be pretty quick here. 1724 01:45:36,360 --> 01:45:42,360 I mean, for me, the biggest kind of note is that the Porter has 1725 01:45:42,360 --> 01:45:47,360 been pretty damn disappointing. It's hard to know how to parse 1726 01:45:47,360 --> 01:45:49,960 that, but it's hard. It's even harder. 1727 01:45:51,080 --> 01:45:55,800 It's to like not react like at this point it I think we're 1728 01:45:55,800 --> 01:45:57,640 we're at panic buttons for Laporta. 1729 01:45:58,040 --> 01:46:02,240 Yeah, the for for Laporta, the one thing that I'll say is you 1730 01:46:02,240 --> 01:46:06,560 do get the Jamo suspension and maybe that two games is enough 1731 01:46:06,560 --> 01:46:10,720 for him to re establish a foothold in the offense and do a 1732 01:46:10,720 --> 01:46:13,320 little something. But I I think you gotta if you 1733 01:46:13,320 --> 01:46:17,000 don't get anything in these next two games from Laporta, it's I 1734 01:46:17,000 --> 01:46:18,960 mean, it's already super concerning. 1735 01:46:18,960 --> 01:46:23,080 Like I'm, I've got him in on some FFPC, like I have him on my 1736 01:46:23,080 --> 01:46:27,120 FFPC fantasy pros team. Like I don't know why I'm 1737 01:46:27,120 --> 01:46:29,080 starting. Him anymore, right? 1738 01:46:29,080 --> 01:46:31,800 You need a touchdown. He's just like a mid range tight 1739 01:46:31,800 --> 01:46:33,560 end where you hope he catches a touchdown now. 1740 01:46:34,160 --> 01:46:37,440 Yeah, like when it's low even. Doesn't seem great, right? 1741 01:46:37,840 --> 01:46:42,440 No, no, that, that it's, it's, it's almost like confirmed bad, 1742 01:46:43,000 --> 01:46:47,080 bad basketball pick now. Yeah, not great. 1743 01:46:48,640 --> 01:46:51,560 The one that I thought was really interesting, and I mean 1744 01:46:51,560 --> 01:46:54,760 we're going to talk about this when we get to the receivers as 1745 01:46:54,760 --> 01:46:59,680 well, but Kate Auten really stepped up in, you know, when 1746 01:46:59,680 --> 01:47:04,520 the the bucks had the big target void there with Evans and Godwin 1747 01:47:04,520 --> 01:47:06,400 going out. I mean, Godwin was actually in 1748 01:47:06,760 --> 01:47:10,360 pretty much the whole game and autumn was still drawing lots of 1749 01:47:10,960 --> 01:47:13,960 volume. And and this is the thing we 1750 01:47:13,960 --> 01:47:15,800 talked about this. We mentioned it during the 1751 01:47:15,800 --> 01:47:19,640 offseason 2. I I know that I I brought this 1752 01:47:19,640 --> 01:47:22,320 up a number of times with the leg up guys when we were doing 1753 01:47:22,320 --> 01:47:26,080 our rankings for best ball. I said, you know, K Dotton 1754 01:47:26,240 --> 01:47:30,240 didn't look terribly special, You know, to start his career 1755 01:47:30,240 --> 01:47:33,000 here, he just looks like a guy that is on the field 100% of the 1756 01:47:33,000 --> 01:47:35,840 time and runs all the routes. But we also need to remember 1757 01:47:35,840 --> 01:47:38,480 he's a young player. I believe this is his third year 1758 01:47:38,480 --> 01:47:43,200 now, young player that has managed to get on the field 100% 1759 01:47:43,200 --> 01:47:45,440 of the time. Like, that's pretty good for a 1760 01:47:45,440 --> 01:47:47,240 tight end. Tight end is like a notoriously 1761 01:47:47,240 --> 01:47:50,520 slow developing position. He's on the field 100% of the 1762 01:47:50,520 --> 01:47:52,800 time. And now you get this target 1763 01:47:52,800 --> 01:47:57,000 vacuum here where I think Kate on is going to be one of the 1764 01:47:57,000 --> 01:48:01,640 major beneficiaries. I mean, if you're hurting for a 1765 01:48:01,640 --> 01:48:05,360 tight end, Kate on is is one of my favorite ads this week on 1766 01:48:05,360 --> 01:48:09,400 waivers. I just and he looked good too. 1767 01:48:09,400 --> 01:48:12,760 It's not like like, I don't know if you were watching all of the 1768 01:48:12,800 --> 01:48:15,160 the Ravens bucks game last night, but he looked good. 1769 01:48:15,160 --> 01:48:18,720 He was making athletic catches. The guy survived a couple. 1770 01:48:18,720 --> 01:48:21,360 Just absolute widowmaker hits too. 1771 01:48:21,360 --> 01:48:24,640 Like I thought he was out of the game on multiple occasions, 1772 01:48:25,600 --> 01:48:26,880 right? He's kind of a stud. 1773 01:48:26,920 --> 01:48:29,920 He got kind of indicate office. Baker, Mayfield, Truman to some 1774 01:48:29,920 --> 01:48:34,640 Headaches. Some major hospital balls, but 1775 01:48:35,080 --> 01:48:38,680 yeah, so indicate. Yeah, the other yeah, I mean 1776 01:48:38,680 --> 01:48:41,640 20%. So like, here's the thing. 1777 01:48:42,080 --> 01:48:47,880 And his he had 22% targets per run in the last game, which like 1778 01:48:48,440 --> 01:48:51,000 actually isn't like that amazing. 1779 01:48:51,360 --> 01:48:54,760 And the reason it worked out so well is because they had 52 1780 01:48:54,760 --> 01:48:58,160 dropbacks. And so that that actually ended 1781 01:48:58,160 --> 01:49:03,120 up being 10 targets. But it's not the first time that 1782 01:49:03,120 --> 01:49:06,280 he's done that. If you look at week 4 where they 1783 01:49:06,280 --> 01:49:11,360 had 51 dropbacks, he had a 19% targets per Rep per out run, 8 1784 01:49:11,360 --> 01:49:17,720 targets, 7 targets in week three and six targets in week 6. 1785 01:49:18,760 --> 01:49:25,280 So I think I think we've got enough here to say he is very 1786 01:49:25,600 --> 01:49:28,920 like you. You should be actually happy to 1787 01:49:28,960 --> 01:49:33,760 start K dot like and and and that comes from somebody who who 1788 01:49:33,760 --> 01:49:36,120 didn't want to drop them much at all. 1789 01:49:37,240 --> 01:49:43,320 And like I think this is, this is a very viable starting tight 1790 01:49:43,320 --> 01:49:46,760 end. Yeah, definitely agree. 1791 01:49:47,760 --> 01:49:51,840 This has been I think we're seeing a couple viable starting 1792 01:49:51,840 --> 01:49:55,480 tight ends emerge here. Hunter Henry, another one that I 1793 01:49:55,480 --> 01:49:59,240 had a note on, looked pretty good as Drake May's primary 1794 01:49:59,240 --> 01:50:03,040 weapon with Demario Douglas leaving due to illness early in 1795 01:50:03,040 --> 01:50:06,000 the game, he he looked pretty solid. 1796 01:50:06,000 --> 01:50:09,560 I would not be surprised if he it gives us some strong weeks 1797 01:50:09,560 --> 01:50:12,600 here now that you have Drake May running the offense. 1798 01:50:13,400 --> 01:50:16,440 The other one that this is a huge upgrade is David and Joku 1799 01:50:16,720 --> 01:50:19,760 because David and Joku finally has someone throwing him the 1800 01:50:19,760 --> 01:50:22,080 ball who's a competent NFL quarterback. 1801 01:50:23,560 --> 01:50:27,440 You know, now that Deshaun Watson is is done for hopefully 1802 01:50:27,440 --> 01:50:32,240 the rest of his life. But yeah, David and Joku, huge 1803 01:50:32,240 --> 01:50:35,920 upgrade, earning lots of targets because there's no, there's no. 1804 01:50:35,920 --> 01:50:38,960 Target I, I, I do think, sorry, just to go back, I think do 1805 01:50:38,960 --> 01:50:41,760 think Henry profiles is kind of spiky. 1806 01:50:42,680 --> 01:50:47,640 Like you had the 26% targets per run last week, then you did have 1807 01:50:47,640 --> 01:50:54,880 the 36% in Week 2, but week one it was 13%, week 317, six 1808 01:50:54,880 --> 01:50:59,560 percent, 13 percent, 13%. So I, I, I don't, I don't want 1809 01:50:59,560 --> 01:51:03,160 to like get too carried away like you want spike weeks from 1810 01:51:03,160 --> 01:51:05,440 your tight end, especially when you get them as cheap as, as 1811 01:51:05,440 --> 01:51:08,600 Hunter Henry was. But I don't I, I, I don't want 1812 01:51:08,600 --> 01:51:11,600 to get too carried away with the Hunter Henry stuff. 1813 01:51:11,880 --> 01:51:15,560 Yeah, I don't want to rely on Patriots with Jacoby percent 1814 01:51:15,560 --> 01:51:18,360 data like hardly at all. I don't think it's going to be 1815 01:51:18,360 --> 01:51:21,240 terribly pretty. Well, so he started two games 1816 01:51:21,240 --> 01:51:23,880 now and the first one he was at 13% target Sprite run. 1817 01:51:24,120 --> 01:51:27,640 Right, right. So even if you're trying out the 1818 01:51:27,640 --> 01:51:31,720 Jacoby percent data, the trend is continued, it's the same 1819 01:51:31,720 --> 01:51:34,280 trend. Yeah, that's, that's reasonable. 1820 01:51:34,280 --> 01:51:35,640 Yeah. It's something, it's something I 1821 01:51:35,640 --> 01:51:37,920 want to watch. But yeah, he definitely could 1822 01:51:37,920 --> 01:51:43,320 just be spiky. So yeah, in Joku, Henry Otten 1823 01:51:43,440 --> 01:51:48,200 all really strong, you know, emerging tight ends here, 1824 01:51:49,920 --> 01:51:53,800 another another one that I mean, he had a really big spike week. 1825 01:51:53,880 --> 01:51:56,680 You you might say he's emerging and his quarterback is coming 1826 01:51:56,680 --> 01:51:58,960 back now. But I want to know, do you think 1827 01:51:58,960 --> 01:52:02,520 this Jonny Smith stuff is just an aberration or or is he 1828 01:52:02,520 --> 01:52:06,400 actually going to emerge as a valuable fantasy tight end? 1829 01:52:07,120 --> 01:52:11,960 I think the Jonny Smith stuff is like a function of incompetent 1830 01:52:11,960 --> 01:52:17,520 quarterback play. Where you have to, you have to 1831 01:52:17,520 --> 01:52:21,280 decide to throw the ball down the field to Tyreke or Waddle to 1832 01:52:21,280 --> 01:52:25,040 actually make the offense go and instead you throw the ball to 1833 01:52:25,040 --> 01:52:29,560 Janu. I I don't, I don't think that's 1834 01:52:30,680 --> 01:52:33,560 I don't, I don't think that's how this offense should work. 1835 01:52:34,360 --> 01:52:39,040 Like, I guess it's it's good that he was actually so 1836 01:52:39,040 --> 01:52:45,000 productive with those targets. It is good and maybe that he can 1837 01:52:45,000 --> 01:52:50,800 be the third option for the team with Chua back, but in my 1838 01:52:50,800 --> 01:52:56,160 opinion, if the Dolphins are gonna successfully operate they 1839 01:52:56,200 --> 01:52:58,200 it, it shouldn't be true. Johnny Smith. 1840 01:52:59,400 --> 01:53:01,320 Yeah, I I agree with that. I think it's. 1841 01:53:01,320 --> 01:53:04,680 More how did how did the game went the last two games, which 1842 01:53:04,680 --> 01:53:12,480 is that's why they were so bad. Yeah, let's see here the other 1843 01:53:12,920 --> 01:53:16,880 note that I had Oh, I think we we want to go on to the backups 1844 01:53:16,880 --> 01:53:21,800 chart here for these next. Oh, sure, yeah, Jatavion Sanders 1845 01:53:21,800 --> 01:53:24,400 looks pretty good, kind of a good. 1846 01:53:25,040 --> 01:53:27,840 I don't I don't I want to like pump the brakes a little bit on 1847 01:53:27,840 --> 01:53:31,880 him on the Jatavion Sanders exuberance because the you can 1848 01:53:32,000 --> 01:53:34,720 basically throw out this entire game against the commanders. 1849 01:53:34,720 --> 01:53:36,680 It was it was over before it started. 1850 01:53:37,720 --> 01:53:40,880 Deante Johnston not fully healthy and it seemed like the 1851 01:53:40,880 --> 01:53:44,080 Panthers waved the white flag quite early in this one. 1852 01:53:45,280 --> 01:53:50,240 I'm also not sure about the health of Tommy Tremble coming 1853 01:53:50,240 --> 01:53:53,840 off the really large concussion. I do believe he was active this 1854 01:53:53,840 --> 01:53:57,040 last week. I didn't see. 1855 01:53:57,640 --> 01:54:03,240 I mean if he was active after a concussion then he has to be 1856 01:54:03,240 --> 01:54:05,040 fine. Like they can't, they can't play 1857 01:54:05,040 --> 01:54:11,040 the guy unless he's active. Looks looks like he didn't end 1858 01:54:11,040 --> 01:54:13,600 up getting any snaps so he he might have been inactive. 1859 01:54:13,680 --> 01:54:14,480 I know he was. He was. 1860 01:54:14,560 --> 01:54:16,360 Inactive. He was inactive. 1861 01:54:16,360 --> 01:54:17,800 They didn't play him. Yeah. 1862 01:54:18,000 --> 01:54:21,200 So that's that's something to watch, but Jetavion Sanders 1863 01:54:21,200 --> 01:54:27,640 looks like he might be earning more of the of the work there. 1864 01:54:27,640 --> 01:54:32,720 So definitely want to keep an eye on Mark Andrews back from 1865 01:54:32,720 --> 01:54:35,640 the dead. Getting pretty good targets per 1866 01:54:35,640 --> 01:54:39,160 route run now and a strong A dot. 1867 01:54:39,600 --> 01:54:43,720 The problem is the snaps are still not great. 1868 01:54:45,480 --> 01:54:47,880 I mean, I think he's. And so he was just on, on, on. 1869 01:54:47,880 --> 01:54:52,200 I got some more on Tramble. He was out of the concussion 1870 01:54:52,200 --> 01:54:53,960 protocol, but he had a back injury. 1871 01:54:54,840 --> 01:54:56,760 Got it. OK, yeah. 1872 01:54:56,760 --> 01:55:01,080 So this this last week likely ended up with 37 snaps, Andrews 1873 01:55:01,080 --> 01:55:03,880 with 34. So they're right about 5050. 1874 01:55:04,720 --> 01:55:08,600 It's just it's hard. I think a lot of the Andrew's 1875 01:55:08,600 --> 01:55:11,840 stuff really was because of the flowers injury too. 1876 01:55:12,040 --> 01:55:15,600 And it just necessitated, you know, someone else needed to 1877 01:55:15,600 --> 01:55:19,240 step up in the passing game. Matt, you know, Bateman did a a 1878 01:55:19,240 --> 01:55:21,880 big job there and and Andrew stepped up and got his two 1879 01:55:21,880 --> 01:55:25,680 touchdowns. So as much as I want to be on 1880 01:55:25,680 --> 01:55:27,760 the mark, Andrews is all the way back train. 1881 01:55:27,840 --> 01:55:29,760 I don't really think he's all the way back. 1882 01:55:30,640 --> 01:55:34,160 His his role is just drastically different than what we've seen 1883 01:55:34,160 --> 01:55:37,480 in the past and it. But the more he plays well, the 1884 01:55:37,480 --> 01:55:41,520 more that like cuz he started to see his week 1 role was actually 1885 01:55:41,520 --> 01:55:44,960 like pretty good in terms of snaps. 1886 01:55:44,960 --> 01:55:48,400 He just wasn't earning targets because there was something 1887 01:55:48,400 --> 01:55:51,360 wrong. But I do think the more he plays 1888 01:55:51,360 --> 01:55:56,120 well, the I think that's like a positive for increasing a snap 1889 01:55:56,120 --> 01:55:59,280 bat rate. It just he's actually played 1890 01:55:59,280 --> 01:56:02,040 fairly decent the last two or three games. 1891 01:56:02,040 --> 01:56:05,520 It hasn't led to the snap increase, so it might take more 1892 01:56:05,520 --> 01:56:10,120 time. Yeah, that's, I mean, that's 1893 01:56:10,120 --> 01:56:14,760 reasonable. I just, I think that the Ravens 1894 01:56:14,760 --> 01:56:18,640 feel like the cat is all the way out of the bag for Isaiah Likely 1895 01:56:18,680 --> 01:56:20,600 and that they can't keep him on the sideline. 1896 01:56:22,360 --> 01:56:25,760 And so I think that between that and like maybe a little bit of 1897 01:56:25,760 --> 01:56:30,120 load management for Mark Andrews, like, it kind of kind 1898 01:56:30,120 --> 01:56:34,200 of seems like they are happy with how they're splitting it. 1899 01:56:34,240 --> 01:56:37,960 I mean, I wouldn't be sad if we saw Mark Andrews get a snap 1900 01:56:37,960 --> 01:56:42,080 increase. But yeah, I, I don't know, be 1901 01:56:42,080 --> 01:56:45,120 interesting to see how the Zay Flowers injury shapes up. 1902 01:56:45,120 --> 01:56:46,360 Seems like it'll probably be fine. 1903 01:56:46,360 --> 01:56:48,640 He's able to come back into the game and everything after the 1904 01:56:48,640 --> 01:56:53,480 ankle injury, but I think that's the the largest driving force 1905 01:56:53,480 --> 01:56:56,160 behind Andrew's Sailor targets so. 1906 01:56:57,800 --> 01:57:01,520 Well, so he had a 25% Tiger threat run in week seven. 1907 01:57:01,840 --> 01:57:06,680 He had 22 in week 6 and 23% in week 5. 1908 01:57:07,640 --> 01:57:12,920 So I think actually the underlying usage has picked up 1909 01:57:12,920 --> 01:57:18,320 quite a bit there, like even on a on a longer sort of time 1910 01:57:18,320 --> 01:57:21,960 horizon. Yeah, it's just the the targets 1911 01:57:21,960 --> 01:57:25,480 for route runner are increasing, but like the snaps are just not 1912 01:57:25,640 --> 01:57:28,040 and so the. The snaps have not corresponded, 1913 01:57:28,560 --> 01:57:31,000 you're right. Yeah, you need you need the 1914 01:57:31,000 --> 01:57:35,080 snaps for him to return anywhere close to his former glory. 1915 01:57:35,160 --> 01:57:40,400 But all right, I just had a funny note for the last one, the 1916 01:57:40,680 --> 01:57:46,360 great Eric All debates about who was the real Eric All Bowl. 1917 01:57:47,440 --> 01:57:51,400 It seemed to be all for nothing because this average step of 1918 01:57:51,400 --> 01:57:55,800 target is .7. You had Mike Gesicki dealing 1919 01:57:55,800 --> 01:57:58,840 with a hamstring injury this past week as well. 1920 01:57:59,400 --> 01:58:04,200 And yeah, it just, it really, really did not amount to much of 1921 01:58:04,200 --> 01:58:05,080 anything. Eric. 1922 01:58:05,080 --> 01:58:11,040 All 34 snaps this past week didn't really do anything with 1923 01:58:11,040 --> 01:58:12,880 it. Gesicki only 18. 1924 01:58:14,880 --> 01:58:19,040 Yeah. You had week three and four with 1925 01:58:19,280 --> 01:58:26,400 a, a quote UN quote, 40% targets for that run on, on 24 and 30% 1926 01:58:26,400 --> 01:58:29,040 stock rate. But then often what you see, 1927 01:58:29,320 --> 01:58:33,040 you'll often see those kind of like players that as their 1928 01:58:33,040 --> 01:58:37,280 roots, as their roots ramp up, they don't actually earn any 1929 01:58:37,280 --> 01:58:40,640 more targets, which I think is kind of what you're seeing 1930 01:58:40,640 --> 01:58:42,600 there. Yeah. 1931 01:58:43,200 --> 01:58:46,360 Actually as his roots went up, his targets went down. 1932 01:58:47,920 --> 01:58:51,840 So he he he like uttered on those kind of like tight end 1933 01:58:51,840 --> 01:58:55,320 screens. He's he's not a target. 1934 01:58:55,320 --> 01:58:58,120 Enter. And and and this game against 1935 01:58:58,120 --> 01:59:01,520 the Browns, who have a very competent pass rush, right, like 1936 01:59:01,520 --> 01:59:03,840 this, this would be the situation where you might expect 1937 01:59:04,200 --> 01:59:09,040 this ultra low A dot, you know, chip and release type tight end 1938 01:59:09,520 --> 01:59:11,640 to be able to get a lot of volume, right? 1939 01:59:11,640 --> 01:59:13,480 Just that, hey, let's beat the pass rush. 1940 01:59:13,480 --> 01:59:17,160 Let's punish him here. The guy gets one target. 1941 01:59:17,520 --> 01:59:20,360 And you know, Gesicki is is mostly out of the game, only 1942 01:59:20,360 --> 01:59:24,240 plays 18 snaps. So yeah, the Eric all stuff. 1943 01:59:24,400 --> 01:59:28,560 I mean, maybe maybe he becomes something by the end of the 1944 01:59:28,560 --> 01:59:31,680 season. I think your most likely outcome 1945 01:59:31,680 --> 01:59:36,680 is that Eric all never hits the lineup of a winning team. 1946 01:59:37,080 --> 01:59:41,200 If you your line up in best fall, that team is already dead, 1947 01:59:42,000 --> 01:59:45,440 right. All right, let's move on to wide 1948 01:59:45,440 --> 01:59:47,440 receivers and close it out here, Draco. 1949 01:59:48,400 --> 01:59:51,520 Yeah. And I kind of want to focus on 1950 01:59:51,560 --> 01:59:54,360 effort for wide receivers unless you object, I kind of want to 1951 01:59:54,360 --> 01:59:58,800 focus on these kind of waiver pick up guys like, yeah. 1952 02:00:00,840 --> 02:00:03,200 I mean, maybe we can touch. Is there anybody you want to 1953 02:00:03,200 --> 02:00:07,880 touch on briefly here for like smash GPP type plays that might 1954 02:00:07,880 --> 02:00:10,920 be under the radar? Or I. 1955 02:00:10,960 --> 02:00:15,280 Think even not. Yeah, I think Amon Raw gets a 1956 02:00:15,280 --> 02:00:19,040 legitimate bump with Jameson Williams being out and his yeah 1957 02:00:20,080 --> 02:00:23,600 adjusted. So I'm kind of kind of into Amon 1958 02:00:23,600 --> 02:00:27,400 Raw this week. They get the Titans, so it's not 1959 02:00:27,400 --> 02:00:30,600 like the world's most exciting game, but it definitely just 1960 02:00:30,600 --> 02:00:34,680 feels like one where, you know, he he could definitely benefit 1961 02:00:34,680 --> 02:00:37,840 from the reduced target competition. 1962 02:00:37,840 --> 02:00:39,840 They're kind of going back to the old way. 1963 02:00:41,240 --> 02:00:43,840 OK, here, here you go. You're trying to talk me into 1964 02:00:43,840 --> 02:00:46,800 plain Bonex earlier. Here's how you do it the 1965 02:00:46,800 --> 02:00:48,840 ultimate Cortland Sutton regression spot. 1966 02:00:48,840 --> 02:00:52,320 I mean he's he's up here above 60% weighted targets per route 1967 02:00:52,320 --> 02:00:55,840 run in the same neighborhood as Garrett Wilson, DK Metcalf, 1968 02:00:55,840 --> 02:01:00,040 Drake London Aman raw like he's a little shy of T Higgins, but 1969 02:01:00,040 --> 02:01:03,480 like these are all guys that you know we we. 1970 02:01:03,480 --> 02:01:06,240 Just to be clear, I was trying to get you to play Troy 1971 02:01:06,240 --> 02:01:09,640 Franklin. Well, I, I do think Cortland 1972 02:01:09,640 --> 02:01:13,160 Sutton is probably a pretty interesting play this week 1973 02:01:13,160 --> 02:01:16,000 against the really bad Panthers defense. 1974 02:01:17,840 --> 02:01:20,800 Yeah, I, I, I might sprinkle in a, a little Courtland Sutton 1975 02:01:20,800 --> 02:01:24,240 here and then I'll, I'm just, I'm fast forwarding through 1976 02:01:24,240 --> 02:01:25,760 these so we can get to the waiver guys. 1977 02:01:27,200 --> 02:01:31,600 OK T Higgins to me does not look like the wide receiver 2 on the 1978 02:01:31,600 --> 02:01:33,560 Bengals. It to me it looks more like 1979 02:01:33,560 --> 02:01:37,040 A1A1B situation. I really expected this weighted 1980 02:01:37,040 --> 02:01:41,080 targets per route run to kind of normalize between T Higgins and 1981 02:01:41,080 --> 02:01:42,600 Jamar. Where is he on this chart? 1982 02:01:43,680 --> 02:01:44,560 Oh, oh, he's right here. He's. 1983 02:01:44,720 --> 02:01:47,440 Right ahead of a Mon raw As far as weighted targets per route 1984 02:01:47,440 --> 02:01:51,440 run, here's the only receivers in the league running the same 1985 02:01:51,440 --> 02:01:54,640 number or more routes than T Higgins that have a better 1986 02:01:54,640 --> 02:01:57,000 weighted targets per route run. A.J. 1987 02:01:57,000 --> 02:02:00,400 Brown, Malik Neighbors. Justin Jefferson. 1988 02:02:00,800 --> 02:02:05,560 That's the list. Right, Yeah, he like he the the 1989 02:02:05,560 --> 02:02:10,160 contracts year Naruto for T Higgins is hitting in a big, big 1990 02:02:10,160 --> 02:02:13,280 way. Yeah, I mean here, here's the 1991 02:02:13,320 --> 02:02:15,640 other thing. Like all the the T Higgins 1992 02:02:15,640 --> 02:02:19,480 haters and doubters out there. Like so? 1993 02:02:19,480 --> 02:02:23,120 Much of it which there is one. So much of it just comes from 1994 02:02:23,120 --> 02:02:27,920 the fact that like T missed some games with injury or T suited up 1995 02:02:27,920 --> 02:02:31,760 for games while injured and didn't play or played and was 1996 02:02:31,760 --> 02:02:34,240 not 100%. So he was more of a decoy. 1997 02:02:34,240 --> 02:02:39,040 And it's like, sure, yeah, you can I guess you can be mad that 1998 02:02:39,040 --> 02:02:41,120 he he was out there. He's available. 1999 02:02:41,480 --> 02:02:45,160 But like as far as being a good wide receiver in the NFL and 2000 02:02:45,160 --> 02:02:49,080 being a a strong fantasy producer, like T Higgins is both 2001 02:02:49,080 --> 02:02:53,280 of those things. And so whatever whatever way you 2002 02:02:53,280 --> 02:02:57,040 want to feel about T Higgins, like he's a he's a very strong 2003 02:02:57,280 --> 02:02:59,720 NFL wide receiver playing with one of the most efficient 2004 02:02:59,720 --> 02:03:01,920 passing quarterbacks this season. 2005 02:03:02,200 --> 02:03:07,560 So do with that what you will. But all right, we can. 2006 02:03:09,120 --> 02:03:14,840 Are there any of these waiver pickups on this chart, Trico or 2007 02:03:14,840 --> 02:03:16,680 or were you wanting to go to later? 2008 02:03:16,680 --> 02:03:19,440 Charts I'm just looking true and it doesn't look like it. 2009 02:03:19,680 --> 02:03:23,840 It does not appear. I mean, Bateman obviously is a 2010 02:03:23,840 --> 02:03:27,320 strong if he's on the waivers there, you pick him up and 2011 02:03:28,280 --> 02:03:30,080 probably not on a lot of waivers, but. 2012 02:03:30,320 --> 02:03:31,280 Hard. It's hard to know when it 2013 02:03:31,360 --> 02:03:33,160 started though in a in a redraft. 2014 02:03:33,160 --> 02:03:38,760 But yeah, worth a worth a stash. And a lot of these guys, it's 2015 02:03:38,760 --> 02:03:40,240 going to be hard to know when to start them. 2016 02:03:41,040 --> 02:03:45,720 Yeah, that's, that's fair. I, I just had a couple notes on 2017 02:03:45,720 --> 02:03:48,080 this one. First, George Pickens, we talked 2018 02:03:48,080 --> 02:03:51,800 about how good he was. I mean, I don't think it can be 2019 02:03:51,800 --> 02:03:55,000 overstated how good George Pickens was like. 2020 02:03:55,120 --> 02:03:58,240 And he's this dot here, the one that's all the way out here on 2021 02:03:58,240 --> 02:04:01,280 the right. Yeah, yeah, the one with, you 2022 02:04:01,280 --> 02:04:04,480 know, greater than 70% weighted targets per route run. 2023 02:04:04,520 --> 02:04:07,080 You know the guy who looks like Nico Collins on the chart, He 2024 02:04:07,080 --> 02:04:09,880 just hasn't realized the fantasy points yet because he has 2025 02:04:10,240 --> 02:04:13,240 Russell Wilson and Justin Fields throwing him the ball. 2026 02:04:13,760 --> 02:04:18,400 Man, if George Pickens, do you want to know my like my dirty 2027 02:04:18,400 --> 02:04:21,440 fantasy secret fantasy? It's that. 2028 02:04:21,440 --> 02:04:22,720 Oh. Sure, tell me your dirty. 2029 02:04:22,720 --> 02:04:25,520 Tell me your dirtiest fantasy. It's next year. 2030 02:04:26,000 --> 02:04:29,280 George Pickens just throws such a large fit that the Steelers 2031 02:04:29,280 --> 02:04:32,480 have to move on for him. They trade him to the New 2032 02:04:32,480 --> 02:04:36,480 England Patriots, where I get to watch Drake May throw beautiful 2033 02:04:36,480 --> 02:04:40,600 deep ball after beautiful deep ball to George Pickens, where he 2034 02:04:40,600 --> 02:04:45,400 finishes as the overall wide receiver in fantasy next season. 2035 02:04:48,040 --> 02:04:49,640 I mean, stranger things have happened. 2036 02:04:50,560 --> 02:04:54,480 I think it's yeah, stranger things have happened. 2037 02:04:55,360 --> 02:05:00,480 So moving on from that, yeah, I guess the other guy we want to 2038 02:05:00,480 --> 02:05:06,680 talk about here is Xavier Wordy, who after he's actually had a 2039 02:05:06,680 --> 02:05:13,080 pretty disappointing kind of like he was on Xavier Wordy has 2040 02:05:13,080 --> 02:05:19,560 been and maybe it is kind of on bus watch here where his target 2041 02:05:19,560 --> 02:05:21,720 Sprout run has been really disappointing. 2042 02:05:22,280 --> 02:05:30,120 But then it gets, it gets up to 31% in this last game and on the 2043 02:05:30,120 --> 02:05:38,000 same route share and he gets 8 targets with a, an A dot of 16, 2044 02:05:38,680 --> 02:05:42,360 124 air yards. But it just, it doesn't hit, it 2045 02:05:42,360 --> 02:05:47,720 doesn't convert. And I you have to be encouraged 2046 02:05:47,720 --> 02:05:52,720 by the increase in targets, but it's it's hard not to be a 2047 02:05:52,720 --> 02:05:56,280 little bit worried about a rookie that's playing so much 2048 02:05:56,280 --> 02:06:03,720 and then producing so little. Yeah, the, the one thing about 2049 02:06:03,720 --> 02:06:07,960 Worthy that I want to keep in context is Mahomes did miss him 2050 02:06:07,960 --> 02:06:12,120 badly on a deep ball where he was, you know, all, all you have 2051 02:06:12,120 --> 02:06:15,880 to do is put the ball on him. It's a touchdown, you know, And 2052 02:06:15,880 --> 02:06:18,440 so I wonder. I miss a lot of those. 2053 02:06:18,640 --> 02:06:20,800 He's actually missed a lot of those targets. 2054 02:06:21,040 --> 02:06:24,280 Yeah, how, how would we be feeling if Worthy, you know, 2055 02:06:24,280 --> 02:06:27,160 converts on that? Like if Worthy catches that, you 2056 02:06:27,200 --> 02:06:30,720 know, whatever it was 60 yard touchdown this last week, like 2057 02:06:31,080 --> 02:06:34,040 are we worried at all? That's that's the thing, 'cause 2058 02:06:34,400 --> 02:06:37,640 'cause he could it's I don't think it's unreasonable to say 2059 02:06:37,640 --> 02:06:41,360 Patrick Mahomes, who prior to this season was in, you know, 2060 02:06:41,720 --> 02:06:44,720 contention for the greatest quarterback of all time, you 2061 02:06:44,720 --> 02:06:49,560 know, only, only in, you know, argument with Tom Brady. 2062 02:06:49,560 --> 02:06:52,600 Like, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that Patrick 2063 02:06:52,600 --> 02:06:56,120 Mahomes is able to hit that deep ball, right. 2064 02:06:56,840 --> 02:07:03,040 So like, I think that there still could be some hope left 2065 02:07:03,040 --> 02:07:04,880 for worthy. I'm not willing to write it off 2066 02:07:05,040 --> 02:07:07,480 just yet. And that's not I don't think 2067 02:07:07,480 --> 02:07:09,680 that's scope. I think it's just like, hey, I 2068 02:07:09,680 --> 02:07:13,240 watched the game and like this could have gone a very, very 2069 02:07:13,240 --> 02:07:17,160 different way. And like, I think there's 2070 02:07:17,160 --> 02:07:22,080 shortcomings in the profile for sure, but I also, I don't know, 2071 02:07:22,080 --> 02:07:25,160 I'm willing to believe that Andy Reid is a good enough coach that 2072 02:07:25,240 --> 02:07:27,160 if savior were. Right, they they get it figured 2073 02:07:27,160 --> 02:07:29,200 out. Yeah, if he's, if he is actually 2074 02:07:29,200 --> 02:07:31,120 a very good player, like they'll, they'll get him 2075 02:07:31,120 --> 02:07:33,000 involved and his usage will increase. 2076 02:07:33,600 --> 02:07:39,440 So then is is there ways that you can play this increased 2077 02:07:39,440 --> 02:07:41,760 usage? Do do you start them in fantasy? 2078 02:07:42,320 --> 02:07:47,680 Do you take them in a dog bowl? It's pretty hard to start them 2079 02:07:47,680 --> 02:07:52,600 in fantasy. I mean in GPP, yeah, in GPP. 2080 02:07:52,600 --> 02:07:55,640 Like this guy just got a 31% target for a run. 2081 02:07:56,680 --> 02:07:59,600 He got 8 targets with 124 area yards. 2082 02:08:00,360 --> 02:08:02,280 And we're like, I don't know, he's gonna start him. 2083 02:08:03,440 --> 02:08:05,480 Yeah. I mean, I think, I think in 2084 02:08:05,480 --> 02:08:11,880 GPPS, it's probably OK to sprinkle it in just because, you 2085 02:08:11,880 --> 02:08:14,600 know, the upside is very clear. It's pretty clear what the 2086 02:08:14,600 --> 02:08:18,200 upside is. He's extremely cheap like the 2087 02:08:18,200 --> 02:08:21,000 the upside on Xavier worthy is like, hello, you now have a 20 2088 02:08:21,000 --> 02:08:24,800 point fantasy game in one play basically right and so. 2089 02:08:25,480 --> 02:08:29,480 So he he cost 6200 in in DraftKings. 2090 02:08:29,880 --> 02:08:32,320 So I think. Probably not a DraftKings fight. 2091 02:08:32,560 --> 02:08:35,040 You have to take them. You have to take them in the dog 2092 02:08:35,040 --> 02:08:37,280 bowl. Yeah, if you want Xavier worthy 2093 02:08:37,280 --> 02:08:39,680 exposure, it's got to be an underdog. 2094 02:08:39,800 --> 02:08:46,040 So all right, the the guy I had on this chart I had actually 2095 02:08:46,200 --> 02:08:50,400 it's a matchup on this chart. It's the Jags versus the 2096 02:08:50,400 --> 02:08:52,880 Packers. You get Brian Thomas junior and 2097 02:08:52,880 --> 02:08:57,880 Jaden Reed, who are going next to each other in underdog drafts 2098 02:08:57,880 --> 02:09:01,320 right now. Who do you prefer in this 2099 02:09:01,320 --> 02:09:02,920 matchup? You like Jaden Reed or you like 2100 02:09:02,920 --> 02:09:06,000 Brian Thomas Junior? Those are both just like, 2101 02:09:06,000 --> 02:09:08,400 fantastic plays. Like, I feel like it'd be 2102 02:09:08,400 --> 02:09:11,520 reductive to say I like this one more. 2103 02:09:12,600 --> 02:09:14,200 They both just look pretty fantastic. 2104 02:09:14,680 --> 02:09:20,680 And I think I prefer actually, I'm gonna contradict myself. 2105 02:09:20,680 --> 02:09:22,480 I think I, I think I prefer Jayden Reid. 2106 02:09:23,200 --> 02:09:27,280 And just because that offense and that defense stinks and 2107 02:09:27,280 --> 02:09:29,720 Jayden Reid is so good and so established. 2108 02:09:30,480 --> 02:09:35,480 I I, I think go ahead. Oh, I, I was just saying I 2109 02:09:35,480 --> 02:09:37,760 agree. They're they're both good plays 2110 02:09:37,760 --> 02:09:38,800 though. The the one. 2111 02:09:39,320 --> 02:09:43,240 So last week I, I mentioned, I don't know if it was on stat 2112 02:09:43,240 --> 02:09:47,480 chasing or if it was just on the weekly preview show that I do 2113 02:09:47,480 --> 02:09:50,200 over on the legendary upside channel with Pat and Sam 2114 02:09:50,200 --> 02:09:52,840 Sherman. But we talked about the Packers 2115 02:09:52,840 --> 02:09:54,840 wide receivers. And last week I said, I, I 2116 02:09:54,840 --> 02:09:58,200 really was not super interested in Jane Reed because he has a 2117 02:09:58,200 --> 02:10:01,280 history of playing through injuries and really being 2118 02:10:01,400 --> 02:10:03,800 substantially less involved when he's doing that. 2119 02:10:04,120 --> 02:10:08,000 And I, I was trying hard not to like overly pattern match, but 2120 02:10:08,000 --> 02:10:11,840 I, I really, you know, I feel like we've got a, a decent 2121 02:10:11,840 --> 02:10:14,320 enough sample of, of that happening. 2122 02:10:14,680 --> 02:10:16,720 And it did come to fruition this last week. 2123 02:10:18,000 --> 02:10:21,120 But he, he played, he didn't have a, A tag, an injury tag 2124 02:10:21,120 --> 02:10:23,760 going into the game. So I've got to think that it was 2125 02:10:23,760 --> 02:10:26,840 a relatively minor injury ankle that was hampering him, But he 2126 02:10:26,840 --> 02:10:29,280 looked, he didn't look like himself out there too. 2127 02:10:29,280 --> 02:10:32,920 If you watch this game, he had a, he had a drop that was 2128 02:10:32,920 --> 02:10:35,960 uncharacteristic of him on a really challenging catch, to be 2129 02:10:35,960 --> 02:10:39,200 fair. But so I'm, I'm willing to, you 2130 02:10:39,200 --> 02:10:42,240 know, hope that the market is discounting him, certainly 2131 02:10:42,240 --> 02:10:45,800 discounting his ceiling outcome. And I want to play into the fact 2132 02:10:45,800 --> 02:10:50,680 that he's he's healthy this week, but to to kind of throw 2133 02:10:50,680 --> 02:10:54,160 some cold water on my Packers crystal ball on the wide 2134 02:10:54,160 --> 02:10:56,400 receiver room. While I was right on Jaden Reed 2135 02:10:56,400 --> 02:10:59,160 last week, I was certainly wrong about playing it through 2136 02:10:59,160 --> 02:11:01,000 Christian Watson. Probably. 2137 02:11:01,000 --> 02:11:03,280 I mean, I sprinkled in some Romeo Dobbs as well. 2138 02:11:03,280 --> 02:11:05,920 So I wasn't totally a goose there. 2139 02:11:05,920 --> 02:11:10,000 But man, Dobbs ended up being the one. 2140 02:11:10,000 --> 02:11:12,160 And we'll, we'll talk more about the Packers wide receiver 2141 02:11:12,160 --> 02:11:16,480 rotation on the next charts. 2 most important guys in that 2142 02:11:16,480 --> 02:11:20,040 rotation as far as their impact on each other or on the next 2143 02:11:20,040 --> 02:11:23,080 chart. All right, last one before we go 2144 02:11:23,080 --> 02:11:27,320 to the final chart. Are you worried about Marvin 2145 02:11:27,320 --> 02:11:32,680 Harrison Junior? And are we worried about Marvin 2146 02:11:32,680 --> 02:11:36,720 Harrison Junior? I think you're what you're seem 2147 02:11:36,720 --> 02:11:40,040 to be getting. Is this more profile of a boom 2148 02:11:40,040 --> 02:11:46,240 busts and Prairie yards guy? You you you have to love the 2149 02:11:46,240 --> 02:11:48,480 rapper. So he's a first round pick. 2150 02:11:48,480 --> 02:11:51,560 So you can't you don't have to love the the right percentage. 2151 02:11:51,840 --> 02:11:58,080 The right percentage is there. The targets are solid. 2152 02:11:58,760 --> 02:12:06,480 Looks like last week, last week there was only 30 drop backs and 2153 02:12:06,480 --> 02:12:10,160 so the A dot what actually, to be honest, the the average that 2154 02:12:10,160 --> 02:12:14,640 the target the last couple weeks has been 9.59 point 8. 2155 02:12:15,360 --> 02:12:19,120 So maybe, yeah, maybe maybe I I was just kind of thrown off by 2156 02:12:19,200 --> 02:12:25,720 like some of the Twitter stuff. So the the stats are suggesting 2157 02:12:25,800 --> 02:12:32,400 a player that is important to the offense because his his 2158 02:12:32,400 --> 02:12:35,280 targets for a run. If you, if you throw out week 1, 2159 02:12:35,280 --> 02:12:39,600 his targets for a run and look to be around 27%. 2160 02:12:40,200 --> 02:12:44,800 So like that's, that's pretty good on on a pretty high route 2161 02:12:44,800 --> 02:12:48,080 percentage. So like that's good underlying 2162 02:12:48,080 --> 02:12:50,320 usage. They're just, they're not 2163 02:12:50,320 --> 02:13:00,360 connecting on the on the passes. So, and how do you, how, how do 2164 02:13:00,360 --> 02:13:04,520 you deal with our first round pick where he's getting good 2165 02:13:04,520 --> 02:13:07,480 usage, but he's not, he's not converting. 2166 02:13:08,360 --> 02:13:12,200 I think that I think that's a buy low, right? 2167 02:13:13,160 --> 02:13:17,120 I think that's a buy low where where the usage is strong or at 2168 02:13:17,120 --> 02:13:22,040 least a lot stronger than the production, then then you're 2169 02:13:22,040 --> 02:13:26,800 probably looking at at least a good chunk of variance and then 2170 02:13:27,760 --> 02:13:31,760 that will that that that should regress quite a bit. 2171 02:13:32,720 --> 02:13:35,880 Yeah, I'm. I just fucked myself all the way 2172 02:13:35,880 --> 02:13:38,160 around them. Sorry about the journey we went 2173 02:13:38,160 --> 02:13:40,520 on there. No, that's that's OK. 2174 02:13:40,520 --> 02:13:44,000 I think that was good context. I just think you're going to end 2175 02:13:44,000 --> 02:13:47,040 up with a guy that's going to be a lot more volatile than 2176 02:13:47,200 --> 02:13:50,200 everyone wanted based on where they were drafting him in 2177 02:13:50,200 --> 02:13:53,720 fantasy this year. Just, and it's, it's more by 2178 02:13:54,000 --> 02:13:57,640 design and the Cardinals offense than anything to do with him. 2179 02:13:58,280 --> 02:14:00,320 The Cardinals just don't throw the ball to the middle of the 2180 02:14:00,320 --> 02:14:02,880 field simply because Kyler cannot see the middle of the 2181 02:14:02,880 --> 02:14:05,000 field. Like that's look, look at where 2182 02:14:05,000 --> 02:14:08,040 the Cardinals are passing the ball and it's almost all to the 2183 02:14:08,040 --> 02:14:09,600 boundary. Like they're not attacking the 2184 02:14:09,600 --> 02:14:13,480 splash zone, which is how you deliver these big explosive 2185 02:14:13,480 --> 02:14:17,040 plays consistently is hitting the splash zone. 2186 02:14:17,560 --> 02:14:20,520 And the Cardinals are not capable of doing that, which is 2187 02:14:20,600 --> 02:14:24,520 really unfortunate. So you're just getting these 2188 02:14:24,560 --> 02:14:29,080 higher variants outcomes where, hey, that the passes, they're 2189 02:14:29,080 --> 02:14:31,120 going to come outside the numbers and those are harder to 2190 02:14:31,120 --> 02:14:33,400 complete. And so you're just going to end 2191 02:14:33,400 --> 02:14:38,080 up with larger variants there. So I did have another little 2192 02:14:38,080 --> 02:14:41,080 tangent on Marvin Harrison that I wanted to touch on real quick, 2193 02:14:41,880 --> 02:14:45,360 but I I need I need you to play along with me real quick so I 2194 02:14:45,360 --> 02:14:49,360 can make this point. If we were redrafting right now 2195 02:14:49,760 --> 02:14:52,560 and you knew Malik Neighbors was fully healthy and let's just say 2196 02:14:52,560 --> 02:14:56,920 that the Giants didn't lose, you know, their their offensive 2197 02:14:56,920 --> 02:14:58,880 tackle. So they they still had a 2198 02:14:58,880 --> 02:15:02,880 somewhat intact offensive line. Where would you draft Malik 2199 02:15:02,880 --> 02:15:05,440 Neighbors in basketball if you're redrafting right now? 2200 02:15:06,960 --> 02:15:11,360 And it it it just assuming health and all that kind of 2201 02:15:11,360 --> 02:15:15,240 stuff. Yeah, yeah, You draft Malik 2202 02:15:15,240 --> 02:15:18,760 Neighbors and in the first round. 2203 02:15:19,280 --> 02:15:22,760 Yeah, like clearly, right. Like easily ahead of Wilson, 2204 02:15:22,760 --> 02:15:24,400 like probably ahead of Almond raw. 2205 02:15:24,400 --> 02:15:28,120 Like, yeah, pretty, pretty strongly in the first round, 2206 02:15:28,280 --> 02:15:31,040 right. And would you say that it's a 2207 02:15:31,040 --> 02:15:34,800 reasonable assumption to say that the Cardinals offense 2208 02:15:35,880 --> 02:15:39,600 definitely could be better than the Giants offense, both now 2209 02:15:39,600 --> 02:15:42,520 given what we already know and also before the season, given 2210 02:15:42,520 --> 02:15:44,840 what we knew about? Right, the Cardinals offense is 2211 02:15:44,840 --> 02:15:46,240 better. OK. 2212 02:15:47,120 --> 02:15:51,200 And so seeing this outcome for Malik Neighbors where he is very 2213 02:15:51,200 --> 02:15:54,560 clear, not just like maybe a fringe first rounder, but like 2214 02:15:54,880 --> 02:15:57,640 clearly, clearly, clearly a first round pick. 2215 02:15:58,040 --> 02:16:01,400 He's the situation. Yeah, knowing that Malik 2216 02:16:01,400 --> 02:16:04,720 Neighbors and Marvin Harrison Junior were similar talent 2217 02:16:04,720 --> 02:16:08,200 profiles, like by all metrics that you can measure them by 2218 02:16:08,800 --> 02:16:11,880 coming out of college, like they both were elite wide receiver 2219 02:16:11,880 --> 02:16:16,240 prospects And even people that were Malik Neighbors over Marvin 2220 02:16:16,240 --> 02:16:20,160 Harrison Junior, of which there were some, I still think would 2221 02:16:20,160 --> 02:16:23,680 say that the range of outcomes for both players was similar. 2222 02:16:23,800 --> 02:16:27,760 Like, it's not like only Malik Neighbors had this absolute 2223 02:16:27,760 --> 02:16:32,280 ceiling outcome. So this is all to say that for 2224 02:16:32,280 --> 02:16:35,240 anyone who's saying like, I can't believe these idiots who 2225 02:16:35,240 --> 02:16:41,120 were drafting Marvin Harrison Junior at the 1-2 turn, that's 2226 02:16:41,360 --> 02:16:43,719 that's like some of the stupidest shit I've ever heard. 2227 02:16:43,799 --> 02:16:46,639 Like you, you just don't know what the fuck you're talking 2228 02:16:46,639 --> 02:16:48,840 about or you don't really understand what game you're 2229 02:16:48,840 --> 02:16:51,760 playing, which like, it's fine to be stupid. 2230 02:16:51,760 --> 02:16:53,760 It's also fine to not understand a game. 2231 02:16:54,120 --> 02:16:56,639 But like, now that I'm telling you this, I'm asking you to be 2232 02:16:56,639 --> 02:16:58,120 better. So like, if you're one of these 2233 02:16:58,120 --> 02:17:01,040 people that's out here saying, Oh my God, Marvin Harrison 2234 02:17:01,040 --> 02:17:04,920 Junior, such a dumb pick at the 1-2 turn, like if you're doing 2235 02:17:04,920 --> 02:17:07,240 it for engagement, I get it. Like I know that's that's a 2236 02:17:07,240 --> 02:17:10,520 thing that people like to do, but like, I need you to be 2237 02:17:10,600 --> 02:17:14,320 honest and do some legitimate analysis and and realize like 2238 02:17:14,320 --> 02:17:16,639 the range of outcomes for these players is very similar. 2239 02:17:16,920 --> 02:17:19,600 One of them is hitting the outcome where he's very clearly 2240 02:17:19,600 --> 02:17:22,120 a win. Even if you take him at the 1-2 2241 02:17:22,120 --> 02:17:23,760 turn. He just happened to be the guy 2242 02:17:23,760 --> 02:17:26,160 that was going later. And their their range of 2243 02:17:26,160 --> 02:17:29,240 outcomes was very, very reasonable to be similar. 2244 02:17:29,240 --> 02:17:32,200 In fact, you could say Marvin Harrison Junior's was probably a 2245 02:17:32,200 --> 02:17:34,799 better range of outcomes given the overall offensive 2246 02:17:34,799 --> 02:17:38,639 environment. So it just, I'm just, I'm tired. 2247 02:17:38,639 --> 02:17:43,320 And the, the Marvin Harrison, the outcome or sorry, the usage 2248 02:17:43,320 --> 02:17:49,000 here is not that bad. Like if you, if you, if you, if 2249 02:17:49,000 --> 02:17:53,200 you try out week one just because, and then week 6, 2250 02:17:53,200 --> 02:17:55,440 because that's the one where you laugh with the concussion, 2251 02:17:56,240 --> 02:18:00,480 you're looking at about 14 expected points in PPR a game, 2252 02:18:01,400 --> 02:18:05,760 which, so that's about it within that filter. 2253 02:18:06,520 --> 02:18:13,000 That is about wide receiver 18, which I, I, I get being this 2254 02:18:13,040 --> 02:18:16,240 that you have to be disappointed with that in, in the first round 2255 02:18:16,879 --> 02:18:24,160 and even at the end of the first round, but it's still like it's 2256 02:18:24,160 --> 02:18:26,760 pretty workable. It's pretty workable. 2257 02:18:27,160 --> 02:18:30,719 And just because the, the, the, the points haven't been there 2258 02:18:32,600 --> 02:18:35,280 actually, no, the points of the points have kind of been there, 2259 02:18:35,280 --> 02:18:37,320 but they, they just all happened in Week 2. 2260 02:18:37,559 --> 02:18:41,840 So outside of Week 2 and they've been weak. 2261 02:18:42,600 --> 02:18:46,240 And you're I think you're still going to get you're still going 2262 02:18:46,240 --> 02:18:49,840 to get the week two outcomes where he scores, he scores some 2263 02:18:50,280 --> 02:18:53,040 deep touchdowns or he gets a lot of big plays. 2264 02:18:54,120 --> 02:18:57,440 It's not going to happen at the rate that you need at the pick. 2265 02:18:57,440 --> 02:19:02,160 He went and but it's still it's still fine. 2266 02:19:02,360 --> 02:19:04,879 It's it's it's, it's not great, but it's still fine. 2267 02:19:05,480 --> 02:19:09,360 Yeah, I just, I I really wanted to make a point to for anyone 2268 02:19:09,360 --> 02:19:12,959 that was struggling with like understanding why he was going 2269 02:19:12,959 --> 02:19:16,840 there, like simply look at Malik neighbors and like I'm just 2270 02:19:16,840 --> 02:19:20,480 asking people who are who are saying like, oh, what a silly 2271 02:19:20,480 --> 02:19:23,639 pic. Like, I just I need you to do 2272 02:19:23,639 --> 02:19:27,639 some earnest analysis and like, if it's just for clicks, like 2273 02:19:27,639 --> 02:19:29,959 that's OK. But like I'm telling you, like 2274 02:19:29,959 --> 02:19:32,760 do better put put some legitimate analysis out there. 2275 02:19:32,760 --> 02:19:37,200 Like it's it is foolishness to say that it was bad process to 2276 02:19:37,200 --> 02:19:38,959 draft Marvin Harrison at the 1-2 turn. 2277 02:19:39,000 --> 02:19:42,719 Like, and if you disagree with that, like I'll see you in the 2278 02:19:42,719 --> 02:19:44,799 streets next year and I hope you up your volume. 2279 02:19:44,959 --> 02:19:47,320 You know, that's that's all I have to say about that. 2280 02:19:47,440 --> 02:19:48,720 All right, we can go to the last chart. 2281 02:19:48,720 --> 02:19:53,960 Hell. OK, so now we can talk about the 2282 02:19:54,040 --> 02:19:59,320 the show headliners. So I'm going to let you. 2283 02:19:59,560 --> 02:20:03,720 Why don't you guys here Draco? OK, so I think I've talked about 2284 02:20:03,720 --> 02:20:07,360 Troy Franklin enough. I think the I think, I actually 2285 02:20:07,360 --> 02:20:10,640 think he's probably got the strongest usage of any of the 2286 02:20:10,640 --> 02:20:14,360 rookies and you have the problem that his quarterback sucks. 2287 02:20:14,840 --> 02:20:19,680 We we kind of discussed that, but really like that usage. 2288 02:20:20,120 --> 02:20:25,120 The next guy is the the 49ers guy, Ricky Purcell. 2289 02:20:26,280 --> 02:20:31,160 And I think you have if you're taking pure cell or you're 2290 02:20:31,160 --> 02:20:33,640 you're you're unloading the clip on pure cell. 2291 02:20:34,280 --> 02:20:40,200 You need to squint a lot because a lot of his underlying metrics 2292 02:20:40,200 --> 02:20:44,320 were actually not am. Now you only have you only have 2293 02:20:44,320 --> 02:20:47,840 last week. And he was probably maybe trust 2294 02:20:47,840 --> 02:20:51,480 into the game quicker than they intended given his recovery and 2295 02:20:51,480 --> 02:20:56,320 all that kind of stuff. But on an 84% Reds run, he had 2296 02:20:56,320 --> 02:21:02,560 just 16% targets per out run and, and seven yards per 2297 02:21:02,560 --> 02:21:08,960 reception and an 8 out of 8. So I think you have to squint 2298 02:21:09,160 --> 02:21:13,320 when you when you, when you take them and say, oh, and they're 2299 02:21:13,320 --> 02:21:15,560 still ramping them back up. He was kind of trusting the 2300 02:21:15,560 --> 02:21:19,240 limelight. And but to me that, that's 2301 02:21:19,240 --> 02:21:26,120 actually kind of a concern, the one that I would actually kind 2302 02:21:26,120 --> 02:21:31,080 of like the other 40 Niner that I could consider on, on, on 2303 02:21:31,600 --> 02:21:37,800 waivers would be maybe Joanne Jennings, even though his, his 2304 02:21:37,800 --> 02:21:42,320 routes actually his routes still stayed at 55% last week. 2305 02:21:43,080 --> 02:21:45,480 His his targets for our run has been good. 2306 02:21:46,080 --> 02:21:49,440 And so I could see that him being like a $1.00 or cheap 2307 02:21:49,440 --> 02:21:52,320 pickup that goes more under the radar. 2308 02:21:52,960 --> 02:21:56,880 And what, what, what are you, I know I just talked a lot there. 2309 02:21:56,880 --> 02:21:58,960 What are your thoughts? Yeah. 2310 02:21:59,120 --> 02:22:01,640 So you're not interested at all in Jacob Cowing? 2311 02:22:02,720 --> 02:22:03,880 Oh, yeah, sorry. You're right. 2312 02:22:03,880 --> 02:22:04,760 You're right. Here's the other guy. 2313 02:22:04,760 --> 02:22:08,280 He slipped my mind and let me let me dig him into him for a 2314 02:22:08,280 --> 02:22:11,000 second. And so Jacob Cowing. 2315 02:22:13,680 --> 02:22:18,880 And so he played for the first time last week and he had a 22% 2316 02:22:18,880 --> 02:22:22,600 route rate. So yeah, he's pretty clear the, 2317 02:22:22,920 --> 02:22:26,920 the pretty clear tree. He did have a 25% target spread 2318 02:22:26,920 --> 02:22:31,920 run, so on a little more. And then his average depth of 2319 02:22:31,920 --> 02:22:35,680 target was 17. So he he didn't have that many 2320 02:22:35,680 --> 02:22:37,920 routes, but he got some deep shots. 2321 02:22:38,600 --> 02:22:45,320 He actually got 50 yards. So, and he played, he arguably 2322 02:22:45,320 --> 02:22:48,160 played a lot better than than. What's his name? 2323 02:22:49,120 --> 02:22:50,800 Yeah, Ricky Purcell. Yeah. 2324 02:22:51,160 --> 02:22:54,200 Rizzy P And so he could be a more under the radar guy. 2325 02:22:54,200 --> 02:22:57,600 I think he's like maybe a stash another guy where it's like 2326 02:22:57,640 --> 02:23:00,680 maybe a $1.00 and if you have room on your bench, you can like 2327 02:23:00,680 --> 02:23:05,880 watch it play out and but not not at not playable right now. 2328 02:23:06,320 --> 02:23:10,160 And yeah, but that could change. That could change very rapidly. 2329 02:23:10,720 --> 02:23:16,520 Yeah, yeah, I'm definitely, I'm interested in in all the 49ers 2330 02:23:16,520 --> 02:23:17,600 receivers. I think they're all good 2331 02:23:17,600 --> 02:23:20,600 stashes. Ricky Pearsall obviously coming 2332 02:23:20,600 --> 02:23:24,760 off, you know, being shot. So I I'm not not wanting to bury 2333 02:23:24,760 --> 02:23:29,520 him after just one game. And and I think that, you know, 2334 02:23:29,760 --> 02:23:33,640 the the rolls are up for grabs here with the 49ers injuries. 2335 02:23:35,480 --> 02:23:39,480 I I think that cowing is probably more of just like a 2336 02:23:39,480 --> 02:23:41,400 deep shot burner. He's a pretty small guy. 2337 02:23:41,400 --> 02:23:44,040 He's really fast. I was wondering how the Niners 2338 02:23:44,040 --> 02:23:47,320 would deploy him, if they'd use him as more of like a, you know, 2339 02:23:47,320 --> 02:23:50,200 quick hitter, quick slant type of guy or if he was going to 2340 02:23:50,200 --> 02:23:52,280 just be like the take the top off the defense. 2341 02:23:52,280 --> 02:23:55,280 Kind of like they've done in the past with, you know, some of 2342 02:23:55,280 --> 02:24:00,120 their guys like like Ray, Ray McLeod and you know, whatever. 2343 02:24:01,280 --> 02:24:04,840 Gray, I can't remember the first name of that other player. 2344 02:24:04,840 --> 02:24:07,440 But anyway, like they've done in the past with some of those 2345 02:24:07,440 --> 02:24:09,800 guys. But I think Cowling's probably 2346 02:24:09,800 --> 02:24:13,760 like the deep guy there. I've got another. 2347 02:24:14,080 --> 02:24:18,600 So I, I guess let's, let's talk about the other really clear 2348 02:24:18,920 --> 02:24:24,000 waiver guys, the Sterling Shepherd, Jalen McMillan bunch. 2349 02:24:24,440 --> 02:24:27,480 How are you playing those? Do you have a preference between 2350 02:24:27,480 --> 02:24:32,120 one or the other on waivers? So I think you, I think you do 2351 02:24:32,120 --> 02:24:35,920 have to do go with Jalen McMillan and I think you have to 2352 02:24:35,920 --> 02:24:38,760 prefer him. So if you're looking at the 2353 02:24:38,760 --> 02:24:47,240 routes and just in, in week 7 and McMillan had a 60% and a 26% 2354 02:24:47,240 --> 02:24:50,760 targets per hour run and his average depth of target was 2355 02:24:50,760 --> 02:24:55,680 14.4. So, and so a lot of those did 2356 02:24:55,680 --> 02:25:00,760 end up being prayer yards. So I guess you, you do have to, 2357 02:25:00,880 --> 02:25:03,120 you have to take that with a grain of salt. 2358 02:25:03,560 --> 02:25:06,760 But and, and, and, and maybe maybe he doesn't, they, they 2359 02:25:06,760 --> 02:25:09,480 don't add the underneath stuff to him. 2360 02:25:09,800 --> 02:25:13,200 They just continue with being the Rashad White and then K 2361 02:25:13,200 --> 02:25:16,440 Dots. But I I have to think that given 2362 02:25:16,440 --> 02:25:20,560 they already liked him, they're already targeting heavily that 2363 02:25:20,640 --> 02:25:23,320 maybe they figure out a way to get him more involved in 2364 02:25:23,320 --> 02:25:27,360 intermediate and short stuff. Then after that you've got 2365 02:25:27,360 --> 02:25:30,360 shirling stepper at Sterling Shepherd. 2366 02:25:31,040 --> 02:25:35,120 So his target threat run was just 4% in week 7. 2367 02:25:35,360 --> 02:25:40,680 And hold on while I got AI want to look up his full season and 2368 02:25:41,800 --> 02:25:45,240 so Sterling Shepherd. So he he played at a similar 2369 02:25:45,240 --> 02:25:52,880 rate to to McMillan last night, but they they did, they didn't 2370 02:25:52,960 --> 02:25:58,760 they hardly targeted them. And so his his target for a run 2371 02:25:58,760 --> 02:26:06,360 on the full season is just 9%. So I, I, I don't, I don't think, 2372 02:26:06,360 --> 02:26:08,240 I don't think that's like a viable. 2373 02:26:09,360 --> 02:26:12,400 And then the other guy is somebody who plays a lot, but 2374 02:26:12,400 --> 02:26:19,000 it's, it's, it's, it's wins Prince, and that's Trey Palmer. 2375 02:26:19,400 --> 02:26:22,360 Yeah. So I think, yeah, I think Jill 2376 02:26:22,360 --> 02:26:24,760 and McMillan is your only real clear shot here. 2377 02:26:25,560 --> 02:26:28,160 Yeah, I agree. You just you have to you got to 2378 02:26:28,160 --> 02:26:30,760 take the swing for the upside with McMillan. 2379 02:26:31,760 --> 02:26:36,800 I wouldn't be terribly surprised if we see Shepard end up getting 2380 02:26:36,800 --> 02:26:39,600 a bunch of like, you know, little dink and dunk type 2381 02:26:39,600 --> 02:26:41,760 targets. But I mean, if you really want 2382 02:26:41,760 --> 02:26:44,800 my prediction for what happens on this offense, it's that the 2383 02:26:44,800 --> 02:26:47,880 running backs all see more usage. 2384 02:26:47,880 --> 02:26:50,360 They're running, you know, they just lean into the running game 2385 02:26:50,360 --> 02:26:53,040 more. Kate Auten gets a lot of the 2386 02:26:53,040 --> 02:26:55,880 work. And then if someone else can 2387 02:26:55,880 --> 02:26:58,080 emerge in the receiving game, the Bucks will take it. 2388 02:26:58,400 --> 02:27:00,920 And I think your best bet for that is is McMillan. 2389 02:27:01,160 --> 02:27:08,320 But all right, the other guy on this chart that I wanted to note 2390 02:27:09,640 --> 02:27:14,280 Demario Douglas, OK, if, if Demario Douglas is on your 2391 02:27:14,280 --> 02:27:16,840 waivers right now, this is probably like a home link thing 2392 02:27:16,840 --> 02:27:21,080 at Dowdy's on waivers and you know any FFPC high stakes type 2393 02:27:21,080 --> 02:27:23,440 stuff. But if Demario Douglas is on 2394 02:27:23,440 --> 02:27:27,800 waivers right now, you've been given an enormous gift because 2395 02:27:28,320 --> 02:27:32,280 he was absolutely cooking to start the game and then left 2396 02:27:32,280 --> 02:27:36,040 really early with illness. He's just too sick to keep 2397 02:27:36,040 --> 02:27:37,840 playing. Guy has that dog in him. 2398 02:27:37,840 --> 02:27:40,800 He went out there, probably was pooping his pants on the field. 2399 02:27:40,800 --> 02:27:43,720 Didn't matter to him. He was just racking up catches. 2400 02:27:43,720 --> 02:27:46,520 He's very clearly Drake Mays favorite target. 2401 02:27:47,080 --> 02:27:51,960 I spent way more time than I'd like to admit watching Drake May 2402 02:27:51,960 --> 02:27:56,800 clips and highlights this offseason trying to understand 2403 02:27:56,800 --> 02:28:01,760 why Pat was so enthused with him and I I definitely I drank all 2404 02:28:01,760 --> 02:28:03,920 the kool-aid after watching because he seems like a 2405 02:28:04,120 --> 02:28:08,440 fantastic fantasy quarterback. If you watched a bunch of Drake 2406 02:28:08,440 --> 02:28:13,720 May highlights, you'll notice that man did that guy like Josh 2407 02:28:13,720 --> 02:28:19,160 Downs and Demario Douglas is getting used just how he used 2408 02:28:19,160 --> 02:28:21,560 Josh Downs when they played together in college. 2409 02:28:22,280 --> 02:28:25,960 And it just like I've just seen it before from watching this guy 2410 02:28:25,960 --> 02:28:31,200 and it, it seems like Demario Douglas is gonna be his first 2411 02:28:31,200 --> 02:28:35,520 read and 2nd read. Like he I, I think Demaro is 2412 02:28:35,520 --> 02:28:38,040 going to eat. And and also we've seen him be 2413 02:28:38,040 --> 02:28:40,720 good in a dysfunctional offense before. 2414 02:28:40,720 --> 02:28:43,960 Like last season, the Patriots were putrid and Demaro Douglas 2415 02:28:43,960 --> 02:28:47,360 still found a way to be like somewhat useful. 2416 02:28:47,600 --> 02:28:50,280 He wasn't a world beater by any means, but he was the only 2417 02:28:50,280 --> 02:28:53,320 productive guy they had. So I think that speaks a little 2418 02:28:53,320 --> 02:28:56,960 bit to the players skill. So Demario Douglas, I think is a 2419 02:28:56,960 --> 02:29:00,880 really, really strong add and he's also someone I want to 2420 02:29:01,240 --> 02:29:06,000 aggressively target in DFS formats prior to, you know, the 2421 02:29:06,080 --> 02:29:09,200 the cat getting out of the bag. Don't love it this week against 2422 02:29:09,200 --> 02:29:14,800 The Jets, but man I I hope that the Patriots get a match up 2423 02:29:16,000 --> 02:29:19,520 against a really good offense and hopefully a questionable 2424 02:29:19,520 --> 02:29:25,720 defense soon so I can jam. Some Demario Douglas, Yeah, 2425 02:29:25,720 --> 02:29:27,560 Makes sense. Makes sense for sure. 2426 02:29:27,640 --> 02:29:30,120 Makes sense for sure. I think, I think that about 2427 02:29:30,120 --> 02:29:32,760 covers this right pretty substantial show. 2428 02:29:33,200 --> 02:29:35,920 I I had one last one, but I'll be quick because I know we've 2429 02:29:35,920 --> 02:29:40,040 gone long Christian Watson and Dantavi on Wix. 2430 02:29:40,400 --> 02:29:44,520 I know there there's lots of, you know, conversation about how 2431 02:29:44,520 --> 02:29:48,920 is this, you know, how is the wide receiver room in Green Bay 2432 02:29:48,920 --> 02:29:51,400 going to work out who's who's taking from who? 2433 02:29:51,680 --> 02:29:55,920 How does the rotation work? The rotation looks relatively 2434 02:29:55,920 --> 02:29:59,160 clear to me right now because there have been injuries and the 2435 02:29:59,160 --> 02:30:03,440 weird suspension. I still want to watch stuff, but 2436 02:30:03,920 --> 02:30:07,640 what it looks like to me is Dontavion, Wix and Christian 2437 02:30:07,640 --> 02:30:11,320 Watson are the two that rotate. If you look at the snap share 2438 02:30:11,320 --> 02:30:15,120 stuff, looks like Dobbs and Reed are on the field pretty much all 2439 02:30:15,120 --> 02:30:16,720 that. Like they're not losing snaps 2440 02:30:16,800 --> 02:30:20,880 because of other players. It's Wix and Watson who see 2441 02:30:20,880 --> 02:30:25,000 their snaps decrease because of the other. 2442 02:30:25,200 --> 02:30:27,320 So those are the two that cannibalize each other. 2443 02:30:28,120 --> 02:30:31,120 It's not to say they both can't get there in a game either. 2444 02:30:31,120 --> 02:30:33,760 That's the tricky part. It's just they're the ones that 2445 02:30:33,760 --> 02:30:38,280 are harmed and that benefit the most from changes in this wide 2446 02:30:38,280 --> 02:30:40,320 receiver. So you get an injury to anybody. 2447 02:30:40,320 --> 02:30:42,880 It doesn't just have to be Wicks or Watson getting injured. 2448 02:30:42,880 --> 02:30:44,920 You get readout, you get Dobbs out. 2449 02:30:45,160 --> 02:30:47,720 Wicks and Watson are the two that benefit the most because 2450 02:30:47,720 --> 02:30:49,680 they'll see the largest increase in routes. 2451 02:30:50,720 --> 02:30:53,120 So that's I, I just wanted to point that out. 2452 02:30:54,560 --> 02:30:57,640 I think this week figuring out how to play the Packers wide 2453 02:30:57,640 --> 02:31:00,000 receivers is really important because it's a really good match 2454 02:31:00,000 --> 02:31:01,640 up at the highest total on the slate. 2455 02:31:03,360 --> 02:31:05,960 For me personally, I I want to play it through Jaden Reed. 2456 02:31:06,960 --> 02:31:12,040 And then I think that with Wix and Watson, I really only want 2457 02:31:12,040 --> 02:31:15,640 to play those guys stacked with Jordan Love because I think that 2458 02:31:15,720 --> 02:31:19,320 if they're going off, it's, it's likely that they're getting 2459 02:31:19,320 --> 02:31:21,640 there through like a big touchdown or or a lot of 2460 02:31:21,640 --> 02:31:23,680 efficiency, which is going to benefit love more. 2461 02:31:24,000 --> 02:31:26,920 And then I think with Reed and Dobbs, you potentially can have 2462 02:31:26,920 --> 02:31:28,640 those guys get there as one offs. 2463 02:31:29,040 --> 02:31:31,280 So I'm OK to play them in one offs in a really good game 2464 02:31:31,280 --> 02:31:33,600 environment. But Wicks and Watson, I really 2465 02:31:33,600 --> 02:31:35,440 want to pair with their quarterback. 2466 02:31:36,720 --> 02:31:38,960 All right, I think I think that's everything Draco. 2467 02:31:38,960 --> 02:31:42,920 We we did it. OK, Thanks everyone for joining 2468 02:31:42,920 --> 02:31:49,160 us for for Week 7 going on to Week 8 of a star chasing and 2469 02:31:49,160 --> 02:31:50,120 we'll see you again next week.