We are live with a very special Wednesday edition of Stat
Chasing. We're through 10 weeks of the
NFL season and Best Ball Bros are frantically scouring their
portfolios looking for Christian McCaffrey teams that they can
delude themselves into thinking how a snowball's chance in hell
of advancing. This is Stat Chasing.
Pat Fryer, Helmo Anita Handjob. Fix your sight.
Jamar Alpha play Chase. You can't handle the heat.
It looks like we're finally at this point.
You're right. I I think we owe the people an
explanation, Draco, for why we were not here for our typical
Tuesday show. Unfortunately, PFF did not have
the expected points metrics up for running backs, which is a
key component for our running back charts.
So we we waited. We waited until the last minute
on Tuesday, hadn't heard anything from PFF, and then we
decided to push the show for one day, assuming that surely the
expected points would be up the next day.
They still are not up, so we're just rolling on with the show.
We're going to have two fewer charts for you tonight, but I
think we'll still have the same hard hitting analysis that
you're tuning in for. Yeah.
And to be honest, it felt kind of inappropriate to have two,
two separate. We had like, well.
I don't know if I'm lagging or you're lagging, but I am not
hearing you right now. If you can hear me, go ahead and
type in the private chat, Paul with an excellent comment.
I would, I would absolutely highlight your comment if I
could hear Paul, because that is great.
But Draco is on the ones and twos.
Producer Mark says he believes that Draco is lagging.
And I don't even think I am able to present the charts because
again, Draco, Draco is controlling that.
So we'll just, we'll kill some time here while we wait for
Draco to come back. Let's see.
So Week 10, I'm not going to get into the meat of anything until
we get Draco back here for the charts.
We 10 for me was an OK week. Didn't didn't have anything
super exciting on the main slate.
Had a couple dog bowl teams that had a chance and then had their
had their dreams dashed per usual.
OK. We, we have Draco back now and
he said I don't know if I'm logging or if you're logging I.
Immediately cut off in the stream.
That's all Internet access, so I think we can safely say it was
me who was lagging. Well, I'm, I'm glad you made it
back because my vamping abilities were, we were, we were
getting near the end of my vamping rope there.
So. I'm sure you had plenty left in
the air in the bike. Well, we can as soon as you're
able, we can go ahead and get the charts up here and dive
right into them. I've I've kept the people
waiting long enough here. Yeah, 5 minutes into the show we
said, we said, we said it was going to be the quickest show
ever, but we're actually going to make up for it for with
complete gloss, No stop talking whatsoever. 5 minutes will start
talking. 2 hours and 25 minutes of absolutely nonsense.
So why don't you go ahead and just?
For, yeah. And we've got expected points
from passing, which that's that's kind of our main volume
metric for quarterbacks. And then we've got adjusted
yards per tent, which is our kind of main efficiency metric.
And then the size of the bubble corresponds to rushing yardage,
because obviously that's a big component of quarterback fantasy
scoring. Yeah, and, and if you are tuning
in for the very first time in week 10, welcome and let us know
in the comments. I, I highly doubt that there's
anyone who this is their first ever stat chasing show that
they're watching. But it would be fun to know that
the the first note I had on this quarterback chart, though, was a
guy that we've both since he has gotten the start this season,
we've both been certified haters and that's Russell Wilson.
So he's still in a pretty favorable spot on the chart,
albeit he's he's come down. Trying to keep getting away with
this. He can't keep getting away with
it And I, I did watch every snap of this game.
Nobody watches the film like a hater.
Yeah, exactly. There's no no motivation better
than wanting to make sure that you're well informed to hate on
a player that you think is bad. And he was really bad.
The I heard a couple people whose opinions that I respect
say that he had a a good game. I didn't really see that I to
and to be perfectly objective, I will say he had one excellent
throw. That was the Mike Williams
touchdown. That was just an absolute dot.
Like that was where it needed to be.
So great throw. It was clutch is the textbook
definition of what a big time throw is.
So I don't want to take the good things away from him, but I do
want to point out like what we're getting from Russell
Wilson is like, in a lot of ways measurably worse than what we
are getting from Justin Fields. I, I, I'm like not so thoroughly
convinced that because Russell Wilson is is chucking up these
deep shots and they're connecting that it's
substantially different than what they'd be getting from
Justin Fields. So just from watching this game,
he took three sacks on 33 dot backs.
That's not good through an interception only had a 50%
completion percentage, 14 completions on 28 attempts.
He does keep throwing touchdowns so that you know, that is hard
to argue with. And then he does get a really
good match up against the Ravens this week.
So are you in on Russell Wilson this week?
Would you would you be playing him in any daily or weekly
formats? So.
I I guess just running through the numbers here on, on Russell
Wilson, if we're, if we're being fully honest.
So Week 10 was by far the worst week of of his season so far
where he had an average yards per sorry, adjusted yards per
attempt in in Week 7 and 8 of 10.510 point 6 and then down at
7 1/2 in in week 10. And what's kind of interesting
is that despite the low completion percentage, that's
still like that's still pretty close to the upper part of the
chart. So even on that bad week, But
then if you look, I guess when you factor in those socks, he
comes down to 6.4 per drop back, which I, I, I think that that's
a kind of like a feature of Russell Wilson's game where we
talked about this last year where he's a lot, he's usually a
lot worse on per drop back metrics than per attempt.
And then regarding the the match up with the Ravens, I mean, the
Ravens are king quarterback kingmakers.
Like obviously Joe Burrow is great, but he's he's exploded.
But weeks he played them like Jameez played really well
against them. What's it like?
The Raiders had a functional passing attack against them.
So obviously that is like a kingmaker spot.
I guess my question would be is how how deep is the is?
Is the quarterback pool in in the dailies this week?
Yeah, I actually have not been able to draft a single Dog Bowl
draft yet this week. I've just had a a busy week of,
of real life. So I will be putting in a lot of
my entries in the back half of the week here hopefully.
So I I have not been able to dive into where he's going in
the daily drafts or anything like that yet.
OK, so we've got Lamar, we've got Jaylen Hertz, we've got Josh
Allen, Jayden Daniels. I'm sorry, Jaylen Hertz is he's
he's on Thursday, Jayden Downs on Thursday.
So those guys, those guys come off the slate and you've got
Mahomes, CJ Stroud. I say CJ Stroud is off the
slate, Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff.
So then I guess you've got 1234 Jordan Love 5678.
So in in your quarterback 8 and 9 range, you're looking at Jared
Goff, you're looking at bone Knicks, you're looking at Sam
Darnold. And I mean, like to me that
that's not that's certainly not so deep that that Russell Wilson
is out of play. I I think he actually gets
pretty interesting. I think those Jared Goff against
Jacksonville, Bodnicks against the Falcons, those, those, those
are pretty interesting as well. And Sam Darnold against the
Titans. But I, I, I that, that strikes
me as kind of very playable. Here's a Here's a fun one.
Anthony Richardson against The Jets or Russell Wilson?
And probably, probably Anthony Richardson.
Interesting. I think I'm, I think even as
captain of the Russell Wilson hater fan club, I think I'm Russ
there. And, and the reason for it is
the way that Russ is getting there is through this super high
volatility like deep shot, extreme efficiency, you know,
and so if you're gonna play Russell.
Is that not how Anthony Richardson gets there?
I mean, yeah, but we've seen it from Anthony Richardson so, so
infrequently. And like with Russell Wilson, at
least he can complete double digit passes like Anthony
Richardson is completing like two or three.
And so my, my point with Anthony Richardson is I don't want to
play him with any of his receivers where with Russell
Wilson, the way that he's going to get there, like I, I pretty
much know I can play him with George Pickens and have that be
good. So I'd be mindful and cognizant
of the combinatorial ownership between Russ and Pickens and
want to make sure that that's not super chalky.
Like, for example, last week, if you took a Jets receiver in the
Dog Bowl, Aaron Rodgers was paired so frequently with
Devante Adams and Garrett Wilson that that was just a spot that I
was avoiding almost entirely. Like he was, you know, more than
twice the rate some of the other quarterbacks, the pass catchers
were getting paired at their receivers.
So that was a spot that was pretty easy in my mind to just
be like, yeah, I, I don't want to be competing with double the
amount of teams if Rogers is the guy you need compared to half
the amount of teams if Baker Mayfield is the guy you need,
right, So. I, I, I mean, I, I have to
imagine an extraordinarily high percentage of the Russell Wilson
teams are, are Pickens teams. Yeah.
That that, that seems like an absolute kind of like
consolidation funnel. Typically the, the way and the,
and the reason you see that in the draft streets is because the
quarterback is going for free, like going in the sixth round,
but they're viable. Just like you're saying this
week, Like the pool's thin enough that the quarterback is
going to get drafted most of the time and their receiver is an,
an option high enough up that people are, are wanting to stack
with them. That's like one of their better
stacking options rather than like it being the third option
on a team that they've drafted or something.
So I would agree with you. It's probably going to be
pretty, pretty chalky. So it's just something where if
you have a way to predict the combinatorial ownership, that
would be super helpful. And I I think that's something
that I would be paying attention to this week.
I did have one last fun Russell Wilson stat before we move on.
So the only quarterbacks with a worse pressure to sack ratio in
the NFL this season with more than 80 drop backs.
This is a really fun list. So Jameis Winston, Spencer
Rattler, Will Levis, Caleb Williams, Tyler Huntley, Deshaun
Watson, Joe Flacco, Gardner Minshew Tua and Baker Mayfield.
So there's 22 quarterbacks that are starting level quarterbacks.
I mean, I guess if you want to call Caleb Williams a starting
level quarterback, there's three, but he's down there with
the very worst of them as far as taking sacks when pressure.
So. Oh yeah.
And that's been Russell Wilson's entire career.
Yeah. It's just, it's it.
We are, are, I guess, are we supposed going into this year
that he wouldn't be able to compensate for that as well as
he did earlier in his career? He has been able to do that thus
far. And but yeah, I, I, I, I don't
know. The part I'm struggling with is
that it's still Russell Wilson. And just because we've gotten
gotten 2 very good games, one OK game I like, I don't, I guess
when I'm when I'm get when it, when it's like Anthony
Richardson, who like has that rushing upside, who has that
same volatility versus Russell Wilson that, that, that I, I
have a little bit more trouble with that.
But we don't have to belabor and that disagreement.
Yeah, I mean, I definitely can see the Anthony Richardson side
of it. I think I'm a little worried
about the match up against The Jets there, but again, it
probably Anthony Richardson's probably one of the quarterbacks
for the match up like matters the least.
He's not going to complete passes on any defense.
It doesn't matter if they're super easy or super tough match
up. It's really just like, can he
hit one or two of the major deep shots?
Right. And, and it's kind of like he,
he's had a rough year, but he's had some like absolute mega
ceiling fantasy games. So like just because we haven't
seen that lately, I, I don't want to discount that as like a
possibility. Yeah, Like that, that's the part
that's that's the part that I'm struggling with where it's like,
just because we haven't seen it lately, like you, you can't get
it twisted that like Anthony Richardson still has like mega
fantasy upside. Yeah, I mean, just getting
multiple rushing touchdowns in a game can can certainly do that
for you. And like, that's always.
Or like if he hits 2 deep shots and then and and and and he has
two Russian touchdowns like you say, like that's a big week.
Yeah, let's move on to the next. Really, I I wanted to highlight
both the quarterbacks on either side of this matchup, and that's
the Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert matchup this week.
So with the Chargers, we have been getting this new pass happy
version of the Chargers where they're actually positive PROE
for three weeks in a row. Then all of a sudden they they
go back to their run heavy ways this week.
Now they're against the Bengals, who are also pretty pass happy.
It looks like a an interesting match up.
I mean, not not like the purest of spots that we've, you know,
seen this season, but what do you think of this game
environment? Are you excited about one of the
quarterbacks, both of the quarterbacks?
Neither. Well, I mean, Joe Burrows always
going to be a good play or so he's always like a a good
projection, a good projection or he will be for most of this
year. I see T Higgins is kind of
limited in practice and there's some chance that he could play.
If T Higgins is playing like then Joe Burrow is just like
lights out phenomenal like that that that offense kind of lights
it up. Obviously he's been able to be
pretty functional without T Higgins.
So that's not like a debt now, but you have to be interested in
Joe Burrow with with Justin Herbert.
I guess the fact that the fact that we saw that like trend
broken means that you can't you you in the pass rate over
expected, you probably have to go back to the like the season
average of -5% being your expectation.
So then you've got, you've got this low volume expectation and
the requirement for the offense to be chasing the game or for
him to be ultra, ultra efficient to get there.
So Justin Herbert a lot thinner, a lot thinner.
I, I, it's still Justin Herbert. I don't want to rule that out.
And but that is a lot thinner. And then we know that the the
Bengals have been a little bit of a run funnel as well.
Yeah, they did. They did actually use Justin
Herbert in the rushing game a little bit this last week.
Let me, I want to pull out his actual.
So yeah, he had, he had 9 attempts for 32 yards and a
touchdown. So I think I, I joked with you
about, you know, they, they just looked at Justin Herbert and
said, do you want to try just like being Lamar for a little
bit? How do you, how do you feel
about that? They, they did have him run a
lot more this game. He had some design stuff as
well. I including that carry on 4th
down a little little off the goal line, but he converted it
for a touchdown. So yeah, I mean Herbert,
Herbert's interesting to me. I think that you really want to
be, if you're going to be playing Herbert in fantasy, you
want it to be in a matchup where you can be pushed.
I definitely think the Bengals can do it and they'll play fast
enough where this game has the potential to shoot out.
I want to pull up the total for it.
I was looking at it earlier. I think it's relatively high on
the week. It's probably like the fourth or
third highest. Let's see.
So it is tied for the fourth highest or really tied for the
second highest. You got three games of the 47
total here, tied with the Seahawks and 49ers, tied with
the Jags and Lions. Yeah.
And so I'm interested in this one.
This one seems like it could be one that could go over and and
in that case I'd be really interested in Herbert.
I do agree with you though that in general I'd I'd feel better
about Burrough just right after the passing volume.
Right. And, and, and that that's not
going to be contrarian or neon, but the, the, the signal that
we've been getting in prior weeks of this being an offense
that kind of wants to open it up more.
We, we have to dampen that enthusiasm a good bit.
Now what like a a -, 10% PROE game like that that, that that's
pretty compelling. Yeah, yeah.
OK. The next note that I had, this
isn't really one that's gonna be applicable for this week because
the team is on buy, but I do think we should talk about it
'cause I think it's an important development.
So looks all the tea leaves are pointing to Daniel Jones being
benched coming out of the bye. Another atrocious game from him
over in Germany looked really, really bad.
I mean it. Yeah, it just, it's been over
for a while for Daniel Jones, but I think it's it's officially
over now. What do?
You think about Drew. Locke like it Is this gonna is
it going to change anything for the Giants offense or is it just
going to be a different flavor of bad?
Well, Daniel Jones has been truly, truly awful and that that
that's obviously a problem for everybody.
I think that certainly the first couple of games with Drew Lock
can be that that can open things up a lot more just because you
have a new guy in there. So like teams, they won't they
won't know how the Giants are planning to attack them with
Drew Lock. So I think you could probably
could see a couple of positive games there and like Drew Lock
isn't isn't fantastic or anything like that, but they've
got the makings of a good offense.
So I think the other piece is that you take, you take out the
Daniel Jones carries from the offense and so that adds a
little bit more volume on them on the passing side.
So I, I'm, I'm kind of like, I don't want to be overly
enthusiastic, but I'm, I'm like cautiously enthusiastic about
it. OK, that that makes sense.
I I definitely could see the additional pass attempts helping
the offense. I mean, really the thing that
would help the offense the most is like, can they sustain a
drive that would add a lot of pass attempts to the offense?
So we'll we'll have to see coming out of the by how that
looks. We talked about this guy last
week and I think we're just going to have to talk about him
like almost every week because he's going to project to be, if
not the best, one of the best pure pocket passers every week.
That's Brock Purdy. Currently, he's the third
highest projected quarterback on the slate.
He's got a pretty good match up against Seattle.
So when you said turn highest projected you meant he his team.
He leads the team with the third highest game total or or team
total. No sorry, I meant looking at ETR
projections for fantasy points. Purdy is OK, third highest on
the slate, only behind Jalen Hurts and Lamar.
He is. He is ahead of Josh Allen.
Wow. Yeah.
That is kind of fascinating. And I, I mean, that was how I
was, I was playing it that way last week as well.
I clicked Josh Allen a couple times in my dog bowl stuff.
Just he was going way too high. I think I clicked in maybe two
or three times out of like over 90 entries.
So a very small amount of Josh Allen.
And I was basically taking Purdy any time that he made it to me
in like, you know, the the late third round, even if I didn't
have a 49er already, I would just backstack him with Jennings
or Pearsall, which ended up being a pretty good way to play
it. Unfortunately did not have any
of those teams paired with Dijon, which was what you
needed. Either that or Jalen Hurts and
Bijon. So but yeah, pretty in another
great spot this week. I don't I don't see any any you
know reason of poo poo the spot here.
Is there anything you any reason you could give to be off pretty
this week or is this just another smashed 5?
So I'm just trying to figure out like I'm, I'm, I'm reading
through this, why, yeah, why his projection would be high.
The first, the, the base level reason is that he, he does have
one of the highest, the one piece of PFF that was up is
expected points for quarterbacks and he does have a really high
expected points from passing. And, and part of I think a big
part of that is it is not so much as expected yardage, it's
just expected touchdowns. So he has a, he's, he's
averaging an expected touchdown of 1.9 per game and he's running
at about 1.3 per game. So I, I guess he, he, he, he
has, he has some pretty good looks at the, at the, at the end
zone and he's running below that expectation.
And so I, I guess that, that, that makes me think that he's
kind of like a buy low, which sort of lines up with the high
projection versus maybe not high outcomes that we've been
getting. So yeah, I, I, I that that
strikes me as a, as a good GPP play where he's getting lots of
goal line locks. He hasn't been converting them
and them. And there's a going to, there's
likely going to be a game where he does convert and that scores
a lot of points. Yeah, the, the, the 49ers have
kind of they've just gotten a little unlucky in the red zone.
And, and I guess luck is not the, the perfect word for it
because like the plays that I'm thinking of from this last game
were more like unforced errors and not, not on Purdy's part.
But for example, I want to say it was, it was Gorendo.
I, I can't remember which running back was in.
Maybe it wasn't Gorendo, but it was not.
CMC is in on pass protection, but he's lined up like just a
little off the line of scrimmage and he just flubs the pass
protection and barely chips a guy and sends a free rusher to
Purdy on a play that otherwise could have been a touchdown if
there wasn't a free rusher screaming down on him.
Like they got the look that they want, that they wanted and and
just play ends up being blown up and you can see the left tackle
just losing his shit at the running back for the guy just
barely chips him and then releases out into the flat and
lets the free rusher go. It's like, yeah, someone messed
up the protection there. I don't know who it was, but if
I had to guess, it would be the running back.
And so there's stuff like that that I've seen a couple times
from them where it's like, wow, if you know, this one guy hadn't
messed up this play, then all of a sudden this is a touchdown.
There is a route where Debo probably could have throttled
down and then sat down in a soft spot in the zone and had another
at the very least a chance to do Debo things that, you know, it's
at the five yard line, there's probably 2 tackles he has to
break or force to to miss. But it's like we've seen Debo do
that, you know, So there are a couple spots like that.
He he unfortunately did not throttle down.
He just kept running on his route.
And so there's these opportunities and like you said,
they're getting these opportunities.
They're in the position to score touchdowns and they're just not
scoring at the rate that they're expected, even though they're
like, he still put up a very respectable fantasy game this
last week. So I think I'm just I'm going to
be very, very heavy on Purdy again this week.
I just, I don't think the price is likely to be high enough
given his projection. The other thing that I really am
interested in is I would assume and I again, not having looked
at prices, I'll, I'll actually pull up to ADP just so I can
talk a little bit more educated here and not just, you know, off
the seat in my pants. But I'd assume Jawaan Jennings
is probably going too late this week as well.
He just, we'll, we'll talk about him more later, but he really
looks like he is just fully in the Brandon Iuke role and he is
performing with it. So let's see here.
Where is Jawan Jennings going? Yeah, far too late.
Oh my gosh. Yeah.
Jawan Jennings is going after like Calvin Ridley, Josh Downs,
DeAndre Hopkins, going right before Khalil Shakur, Jamis and
Williams, Jacoby Meyer. So yeah, that's that's a huge
mistake. I'm actually a little sad that I
just mentioned this live on stream without having drafted
any entries yet into the Dog Bowl.
So I guess I know what I'm doing later tonight is I'm drafting as
many Brock Purdy, Jawan Jennings teams as I possibly can.
Yeah, Purdy. Purdy's price is correcting a
little bit. It's coming up relative to where
it was last week when I thought he should be a lot higher.
So I don't think the value is so explicit on Purdy.
It's probably still good, but not great.
I haven't run my stuff yet to see where I'll have him, but the
Jennings price looks very wrong, like super duper wrong.
So all right, the last quarterback I had notes on here,
OK, this is a disgusting one. And you can just you can just
tell me no and we can move on if you don't want to talk about
this one. So Caleb Williams, it's been
really bad. I played a decent amount of
Caleb Williams last week thinking surely it's a get right
spot for them against the Patriots.
It was not a get right spot. They looked atrocious.
Patriots defense, one of the best plays in salary cap DFS
that you could have made. But yeah.
Do you think that with Waldron fired, do you do you wanna just
bet on like the input volatility spot of something changes in the
offense and the you know, you get yeah, I.
I think I think it's a pretty solid input volatility spot and
not just because the OC is fired, but also because Kel
Williams is a rookie. And so him coming off some bad
games doesn't mean that like his career is over.
Like, I guess it is a really, really bad.
It is a really, really bad stretch.
He hasn't played well. Some of the vibes have been bad.
Like I know that some apparent there was that rumor or those
noises that some of the vets also asked for him to be benched
as part of the, the changes, which that, that, that's pretty
bad vibes. However, I mean, he's, he's the
number one overall pick. We've seen him play like decent
games. So I, I think he's like, I think
he's fine to play and with, with that input volatility.
Like it is a vomit sack, but I mean, it's a vomit sack where
you're playing like a number one overall pick and then either DJ
Moore or Romo Dunze, like Keenan Allen like that.
That seems pretty interesting. Yeah, I did.
I did a bunch of Caleb and Cole combat even last week, which you
know, very ill advised, but it was just, it was entirely
undrafted. I might have been the only
person to do Caleb and Cole combat.
I had a couple of those last week where I was just the only
person with certain combos in the dog bowl and unfortunately
they did not get home. Yeah, but maybe, maybe we can
run it back this week. Who knows?
Those are all the quarterback notes that I had.
Did you have anyone else you wanted to touch on or should we
move on to running backs? No, no, happy to happy to move
on here. Let me zoom out a little bit.
So this is our running back snaps in usage and we're just
kind of looking at who who's on the field for their team and
what percentage of the total team plays are carries for that
player, for routes for for that player.
And then just so we can get the full picture on their snack
count. We also look at pass blocking
and run blocking, like pass blocking obviously a little bit
more important just because that helps you paint the full picture
of like who's trusted to do the pass blocking.
Like if you see, if you see one player on a team where he's got
a bunch of pass blocking and then a lot of the routes and
then another player isn't running as many routes, you kind
of know that's because the team with the player with the pass
blocks, they're, they're trusted.
Yeah, the I mean first. From Andre is probably the best
example of that where you see like a lot of path blocks there.
So that's kind of why he's trusted on that on on those
passing situations. Yeah, the the first guy that we
have to mention is that Christian McCaffrey is already
all the way back. You know, first, first game
back. They did not ease him in in the
slightest. He was he was in his full
complement of snaps, doing everything, running all the
routes. So if you have Christian
McCaffrey and you managed, you know, you're still alive.
Hopefully you can make the playoffs with them because looks
like he could be one of those, you know, low owned advance rate
type guys in the playoffs. You're you're just you're
praying for health here. But he, he looked good to me.
Right. Yeah.
And that that, that is the most notable kind of development.
And I mean, it's still interesting seeing Tuba still up
this high and on, I mean, on until further notice.
Like, I know they have, I know they have that rookie who, who's
coming out the ACL injury, they want to ease them back in, but
they just paid Tuba and I don't see any sign of them taking him
off the field. Like I, I, I really think that
the the rookies going to have to earn it and it doesn't feel like
Chua is giving it up. So, so they're on the by this
week coming back from Germany. But would you say that next week
if we're hearing lots of noise, say people are saying, oh, it's
the Jonathan Brooks getting his first start.
You know, you can't play Chuba this week because Jonathan
Brooks is going to take a bunch of work.
If that's how it materializes, where the market kind of thinks
that Chuba is a stay away because I'm assuming on, you
know, salary cap DFS sites, he'll still be priced up Like
he's getting the work. They typically that's how you
know, algorithms work there. They won't just all of a sudden
drop the guy's price because potentially a rookie could take
some away. They're they're more in the
business of, you know, making you.
Yeah, I, I, you know, I'm thinking about it.
I kind of like it a little bit better in in draft stuff where
you're just getting it like you don't even have to pay the the
the salary, the high salary cap count.
You just get the cheap ADP. Yeah.
And and and perhaps at discounted ownership too, like
that, that that seems a little bit more compelling to me.
And and the reason I say that is just because wit Shuba and
Winneth being the Panthers, I know they've been having a turn
around story, but it it's it being the punters is makes it
harder to still believe in the stealing kind of like story.
Yeah, man, and in the in that Germany game, there is a play
where Chuba goes down really awkwardly and his knee bends in
a a way that was pretty scary. He's he's down on the ground
like they'd stop the game. The trainers come out and
everything. I based on the way it looked, I
I thought he probably tore like at LCL or MCL or something.
Turns out that I I believe that you you were the one that told
me he just dislocated his kneecap.
Is that right? He's like he said, Oh yeah, I
dislocated my kneecap. And, and, but I, I remember
somebody saying like you can't actually dislocate your kneecap.
Like it's more likely that he's, he dislocated as like I think
it's called battelle tendon or something like that.
But like, yeah, he dislocated something and that's why that
weird movement happened. And it's like it, that can be
fine for it to kind of like come back and play on.
Yeah, he So he goes down. I'm thinking like, Oh my gosh,
Tuba's dead. Like Jonathan Brooks is gonna
come in and be the, you know, playoff hammer here.
And then the next series happens and Tuba is on the field.
What is going on? That was it was the wildest
ride. But yeah, I think that's good
analysis on Chuba that if the market's going to overreact to
Brooks being active, you might be able to exploit that man.
The other guy with, I mean, not just like an elite workload, but
like absolute bell cow in a way that we just don't see anymore
is Chase Brown. I mean, he got 100% of the
running back carries in the last game.
Now, granted, that's because the attempt that they tried to give
to Khalil Herbert did not technically count as a carry
because he never got possession of the ball.
It's just a fumble. But still, Chase Brown with just
an absurd workload, he's, I believe, got 10 high value
touches again this last week. So like, not only is he getting
a ton of carries, he's getting targets, he's getting the goal
line work. The offense is good.
Like this is the nut nut run out for Chase Brown and he he seems
to be converting on the opportunity.
So, so last two weeks, 84% of the of the snaps of those 75%
finds it useful. So not only does he have a great
snap rate in in this particular outcome, them not wanting him to
block it all is also is also helpful.
You, that's the secret, Draco. You need to stink at pass
blocking enough, but also be good with the ball in your hands
so the team's like you know? What?
And then you need your your your pass blocking teammate to have a
season ending Necker injury. Yes, yes, yes.
But yeah, Chase Brown clearly had that all figured out.
I mean, tell me a story here, Draco.
Is Chase Brown going to save my best ball season?
Is my best ball portfolio potentially saved because of
Chase Brown? He is going to do his very best.
I don't know how. It's very hard to get a team
from 12th place up to 2nd place, but he's going to do his
direness and get it there. We'll, we'll see how many of
these 12th place atrocities Chase Brown can rescue from the
wreckage of my best ball portfolio.
OK, another guy that I think we have to talk about is Aaron
Jones. So Aaron Jones, one of my
highest own running backs in week 10, getting a monster
workload, then gets injured. When he went down, it looked
like a hip to me, but they reported it as a chest injury.
So I'm wondering if maybe he just like got some rib bruising
or something. I'm not, I'm not sure what it
was because he did ultimately come back into the game.
So that's that's the spot to monitor.
I haven't seen anything on it this week.
When he went out, it was pretty heavily acres.
Ty Chandler. I mean, we, we talked about Ty
Chandler being dead. He's definitely dead.
But what do you think about acres as like a potential stash
right now? Like is he even going to be he's
he doesn't look great. Is he worth anything if Aaron
Jones goes down or is this just a not a valuable backfield if
Jones is out? So I guess he had 13 rush
attempts, 9 routes and two pass blocks.
And then we don't we actually we can't tell why his what is
expected points where which fuck absolutely stinks.
And let me let me see if, if Rodov is, if they're it all
comes back full circle. If their stuff is up for week
10, like that'll that, that'll give us a good kind of like
guide as to there we go total EP.
So he had 13 1/2 expected points and, and week 10 on, on a
roughly 50% snack rate, not on field, no, he, he had a, on a,
on a 24% snap rate in week 10. And then what did he, I, I, I
doubt he actually scored that. So he, he was -1.4 on, on expect
on FPOE. So he scored 12 points.
So that kind of consolidation is kind of on the wait, wait, wait,
no, that's, that's goddammit, that's Aaron Jones.
And I'm sorry, I'm sorry. And so Palm Acres was 8.2 and
then -2.5. So he, he scored 5.7.
So that's probably wordy of like kind of like a spot start where
you're, you're going to project for 15 points and then score 12
or 11:50. So I, I, I, I think that's,
that's like a wordy spot start where you have injuries and you
can just plug a guy in there. I think.
I think that's what he is in the case of an Iron Jones injury.
Yeah, I agree. He doesn't have like the league
winning upside the ceiling for him there just because we we
know enough about what Cam Akers is as a player like that outcome
doesn't exist. So he's not not as exciting for,
you know, if you've got a A-Team that's already pretty strong and
you're just hoping for something to supercharge it if something
breaks your way. He's not that kind of handcuff,
but a guy that that does have that potential.
I would say, you know #1 because he's rookie and #2 because the
offense could get something going here down the back half.
Is Audrey Estimate. He's not on our chart yet, but I
think we have to talk about him. And the reason he's not on the
chart is we're using a rolling four week sample here.
And so he just doesn't have enough snaps over that four week
sample to show up on either of our charts yet if he continues
to get the opportunity that he got this last week though.
He'll be on the backup chart. Yeah, he'll, he'll certainly
show up. I mean, eventually he'll he'll
make his way to the starter chart after four weeks of of
what he got this last week. So he got, I'm, I'm, I'm
calculating that in week 10, he had 38% useful snap rate, which
is just below, that's just below the, the threshold for a starter
chart. So he, he did dominate the
carry. So he had let me, let me, he had
14 carries and that that's of 17 total for running backs.
He, he got, he got 7 routes of 18 for running backs.
I guess the one the one thing that keeps Javante, maybe keeps
Javante as a blocker literally is that he still had all the
pass blocking snaps so he's still there clear and obvious
passing down situation back. Where's Andre Guestimate.
I think he he's the starter and on the 1st 2 downs and and non
obvious passing situations. Yeah, I I agree with you there.
I mean, as a quick summary for this backfield, it's completely
over for Jovante. It looks like Julie McLaughlin
is never going to really have the the best.
Thing He's completely squeezed. Yeah, what you're the the best
thing you're hoping for from Julie McLaughlin is like that
Justice Hill week 17 from last season type outcome for him
where he randomly gets a touchdown and he breaks a long
play, you know, like that's that's really on very limited
usage. So the Julie McLaughlin stuff is
just is not ever gonna happen. But Audric Estimate could keep
consolidating this work. And if he's good, then he has
some pretty, pretty strong upside.
I mean, Jovante's role now a big part of Jovante's role that was
contributing a lot of the value to it was the passing game part
of the role, which does not seem to be likely to be a part of
Estimate. Yeah, that's that's a tough part
for him. You're there's a chance he's
he's a younger player, younger rookie.
So there's a chance that he's able to develop that part of his
game. And you know, what he did in
college is not wholly indicative of like his final capabilities
as a player. But based on what we saw last
game, it does seem like, you know, he's got an uphill battle
to be able to win that portion of the work.
If he can, that's a pretty huge win for him, but even as like A2
down grinder he's interesting and you have those thin paths to
league. Winner and so he has three pass
blocking snaps, and he has a grade of 75.4 on those 3 pass
blocking snaps. He's not allowed a single
pressure on those 3 pass blocking snaps.
However none of those have been on water and TFF deems a true
pass pro set and where's I guess I I got amount of Jovante's.
So Jovante's grade is 59.3. So I I actually don't think it's
that he's such an amazing pass blocker.
He just kind of trusted where's they they they haven't actually
they haven't been willing to trust SMA there.
So that am that that that part is tricky.
Like I, I don't, I, I actually, I, I have a little bit of
discomfort kind of projecting that am, he's going to develop
by the end of the season. But I think he, he's a
worthwhile waiver pick up. But you, you look at things and,
and, and again, I'm referring to Relevis here.
It's 7.1 expected points last week on, on his kind of like
best of the season so far. Roll a 14 of 17 carries.
I, I, I think what you're looking at, you're needing,
you're looking at somebody who needs to get into the end zone
to score points here. Yeah, I I agree with that
assessment. So yeah, thin, thin path to like
get to the league winner outcome.
I mean, basically we're gonna hit a parlay of the Broncos, get
better and have more opportunities to score
touchdowns. And also he's able to take away
a little bit of that or earn some of the passing back role,
which I think is pretty thin. I don't, I just don't think it's
impossible because again, with with a rookie, you just know so
little. So I think that's where get into
trouble saying like, oh, that can't happen.
So it's thin. But that's the reason why we
like rookies because hey, there's a there's an unlikely
outcome. But if it does happen, like
that's pretty good for a guy who'd get off waivers in Week
10, so. I'm putting in waiver bids.
I'm putting in decent waiver bids.
Yeah, All right. The last guy, last running back
I had a note on is on the backups chart.
And this is not a guy that I have been particularly high on
this season due to him coming off a pretty brutal injury.
But the stars are starting to align for Nick Chubb in that he
is no longer shackled to the worst quarterback that we've
seen play in the NFL in the past two decades.
The the Browns still look like they want to give him the work
like he is Jerome Ford. Look at look at the Jerome Ford
rush attempts on this chart. Jerome Ford's bar is almost
entirely routes and blocking. And then then you have Nick
Chubb, who is actually getting some rush attempts.
He is he is getting the majority of the rush attempts for the
team now when when the game got out of hand in their last game,
he he was just like not on the field very much because he's not
not doing passing down stuff. But you do have a spot against
the Saints, who I mean, we just saw Bijon run roughshod all over
them. Like what do you think about
Nick Chubb this week in a pretty favorable match up?
Yeah, I, I that has to be interesting.
Has to be interesting because he, he's already and he's so in,
in, in week 9. So they, they didn't play last
week because of the BI. And in week 9 he was at 34% of
honestly, yeah, yeah, only only 34% of snaps.
But when he's when he was on the field, it was to give him the
ball. So very high amount of rush
attempts, very high amount of them or say so he had 11% rats.
So I, I guess he he's dominating the carries and, and, and in an
in a matchup where you you might think that the Browns will lean
on that run game, that could be pretty interesting.
And I mean, I have to, I have to think that they, they try and as
they ramp them back up, like we're pretty early in the ramp
up stage that they do start to give them more routes because
they're trusting in the pass block.
Like it's not like they don't trust Nick Chubb, the pass
block. They're just trying to manage
his workload. But as as they two weeks on now,
as they as they ease him back in, I could see him getting a
lot more routes. And so I guess you're probably
looking at a sealing case here of like 50% snap rate.
But then that being dominated by Carries and and and him having
those vintage Nick Trop moments which it it doesn't seem like
the most likely outcome, but certainly seems possible.
Yeah, I'm going to. I'm going to pull up his ADP on
Underdog. I just looked at his drafting
salary is 6000. So it's just like it's still
it's probably too much on a platform where you really need
to have some some passing component to your game.
You know, just he he's not not gonna get mini if any reception.
So but yeah, he goes he goes in a reasonable spot.
Actually, it looks like going right before Romandre and
DeAndre Swift and Naji. Yeah, I think I Pollard.
It's hard to take him over Ramandre, isn't it?
Yeah, I think that's close. You probably just take Ramandre
there against the Rams. That's that's probably the
that's the one I would flip maybe maybe Swift or what do you
think about Swift, Swift? For Chubb, that feels a lot
closer. That feels a lot closer where it
it's probably like similar bets where you you need them to break
off a long run like a long touchdown probably helps.
It helps Swift that he's not coming off a major knee injury.
It helps job that he's not the under Swift that.
Was so good I was just about to say that if he didn't.
So I was, I actually, I said the first thing to set up the second
thing. It was.
It was beautiful textbook chef's kiss no notes.
All right on that note, let's get to the tight end charts.
That was the last running back I had notes on.
So for the tight end chart, I mean, I feel like there's so
many guys with really good targets per route run right now,
which is kind of crazy for for tight end.
I mean, some of these are really just like we can kind of breeze
through these notes pretty quick because like Kate on like what?
What new thing am I going to tell you about Kate on?
Like he still it continues to be a smash.
Like he's getting I. I guess the the thing we look at
for there is is Mike Evans return and and, and how this
looks as Mike Evans returns. Like I, I think he still has to
be important because obviously every play can't just be in Mike
Evans target. But I do wonder if he he
continues to like dominate targets here as as Mike Evans
comes back. Yeah, I, I would, I would think
it's probably, I mean, not I'm pretty confident it's a huge
upgrade for the offense to get Mike Evans back.
And we saw the Bucks. The Bucks were a great offense
with Evans and Godwin like they were they were hanging some
points at Baker Mayfield, you know, was the quarterback to on
the season. So I think when you get Mike
Evans back, it might be one of those things where, yes, Otten
sees a a small reduction in his target rate, but the offense is
getting more scoring opportunities and they're able
to stay more drives. And so it's it's still probably
I don't even really want to call it like a a negative for Otten.
It's probably just like a net net neutral if anything really
the like losing Godwin who is more that possession receiver
operating out of the slot. Like I think Auden has assumed a
lot of that work and right now they're just like they don't
have any Mike Evans. There is no Mike Evans work or
role in the offense. That's just all going through
the running backs right now like, well, we need to do
something to move the ball. So I guess the running backs are
going to be a really, really large part of the offense.
I would. Assume you don't think the
running backs will retain ball control type, ass chain control
type of targets. I think they will still have a
good amount of work, but I think if you had to ask me where the
targets for Mike Evans come from, like they certainly come
from Sterling Shepherd, you know, like those those are gone.
Sterling Shepherd does not maintain his targets there.
You probably get to take a little bit away from Kate Auten
and I think you take a little bit away from the running backs
as well. So the the big picture point
that I want to make is I don't think it hurts Kate Auten too
bad. I think he's still a really,
really strong tight end rest of the season like.
He probably is a strong tight end rest of the season, but is
he able to maintain like a 26% targets per out run?
Like that's a really, really strong targets per out run.
Like that's higher than for example, I'm pretty sure over
the last two weeks, whereas Brock Barris that that's higher
than Brock Barris on the full season, who's at 25%.
Yeah, I I would, I wouldn't expect him to maintain that, but
like he could probably maintain a 20.
Yeah, 2022%. Right.
I, I, I, I think that's right. I think that's right.
And I, I think it's probably closer to a small negative than
them than anything else. I, I still think that is a
negative, but maybe, maybe, maybe it's true that Otten is
just so good that even with like a, a player with the caliber of
Mike Evans there, that, that, that he doesn't suffer from
that. Yeah, it it'll be interesting to
watch certainly. But yeah, I, I agree with you
that it's, it's probably somewhere between small net
negative to neutral for Kate Onton.
And I mean, even even if you do apply a small net negative to
him, he's still very, very safely a tided 1, you know, like
that's I don't think. That a did you say a tight end
one or? D tight end 1A Tight end one
not. Oh yeah, for sure.
I was like, I was like, he's safely the tight end one.
I'm like, wow, no. No, we're not.
We're not that bullish on K dot here.
I'm interested to see where he's going to go in basketball drafts
next season, though, because I do think that.
I mean, yes, prior to the Godwin injury, like you obviously
weren't getting this, but I you know that the toothpaste can't
go back in the tube on this now, like you've seen that he is, you
know, this guy's competent. If you're going to if you're
going to feature him in the offense, like he can be a valid
pass catching option in your offense.
He doesn't just have to be like a snap eater like he previously
was. And he's a young enough player
that I I don't think it's ridiculous to think that this
could be a bit of a breakout for him and and lead to more
opportunity in his career. But the next tight end I had a
note on was Mark Andrews, who's had quite the interesting season
so far. I mean, if, if we go back to
like week two, week 3, Mark Andrews was 6 feet under.
We're we're throwing dirt on the coffin, you know, and over these
last few weeks, he's definitely been back.
His snaps are trending up now. 2 two weeks ago he had the highest
snapshare that he'd had all season last week.
He gets the Isaiah likely injury to kind of keep buoying his snap
rate. So I'm, I'm a little cautious to
just say like, Oh yeah, the trend's going to continue.
It's going to keep ascending and get, you know, approach this old
Mark Andrews type, role and and workload that we're used to.
So I'm like, I'm a little cautious of that, but what do
you how do you parse this? Do you think he's still
ascending? Do you think he'll he'll come
back to Earth a little bit with likely healthy?
I'm still, I'm still stuck on on K dot and I'm sorry.
I, I, I do want to make the point that his, his highest
yards per out run on the season is 2.3, which is, is, is
certainly not bad that, that is not terrible.
But his average, if I just take the average across every game,
it's like 1.3. If I take the average over the
last four games, it's 1.9. And in the last game, week 10,
he was at 1.1. So I, I, I, I still may not I, I
don't think I'm in the camp that like K Don is just good.
I think, I, I think you can persuade me that he's a young
player and he's shown us more than we thought he was capable
of. So we need to keep an eye on
that. And but I, I I I needed to say
that because. I think I think that's good
analysis. Could I could I sell you on
that? He is of the Jake Ferguson ilk,
you know, like, yeah, the competent like if if getting
targets in the offense. I mean, Ferguson this season has
been pretty disappointing, more so as a function of the Cowboys
just staking out loud. But yeah, I I think, you know,
seeing Autumn kind of in the same mold as as Ferguson kind of
makes sense to me there. But But yeah.
But on to Mark Andrews, which you wanted to keep the a good
pace in the show and I I rudely, rudely interrupted.
So I think that I mean, it's a good thing that he had a 94%
route rate in week in week 10. Like that's the highest he's had
all year. It does seem likely that it's
because of the likely injury. It is also helpful that on that
high route rate, he also had a 21% targets per run.
He also had two yards per route per route to run.
And like that all seems like competent acceptable.
I do think, though, that like the idea of like this being the
America Andrews, like it used this often used to be the Mark
Andrews show and like that was in in this beautiful fact.
And it's just it's not it's not the case anymore.
But I think that it's such a high octane passing attack that
him being just fine can lead to good results.
Like I think he's pretty startable, especially in in in
FFPC, which as people know is tight end premium.
But there's nothing here that's getting me like, overly excited.
Yeah, I'm, I'm in the same camp as you.
I'm like, I'm approaching cautiously optimistic with Mark
Andrews where before I was, I was like, you know, abandoned
all of you. You have Mark Andrews on your
roster, right? But, and I guess the other thing
about his high route rate last week was just it was a shootout,
right? And and and that's Mark Andrews
kind of music. Like you're not, you're not
going to put in the blockers there, the run blockers.
You're you're going to have Mark Andrews running routes.
Yeah, good point. But yeah, I, I, I think it
sounds like we're on the same page there.
Yeah, the other guy who is certainly interesting in tight
end premium got a pretty impressive A dot and I mean
targets for Outrun for for being a rookie.
He's also getting a quarterback change potentially.
Is Theo Johnson one of one of the highest A dots that we've
got on the chart here for tight ends?
He had a a pretty athletic play. I mean, the the problem so well,
there's a lot of warts on this frog 1 is he plays for the
Giants. 2 is the Giants also happen to have Malik neighbors
there who's just an absolute target spun.
She's just soaking up everything.
So with Theo Johnson, like the problems are it's probably low
volume. It's probably pretty poor
quality passes and so I'm like but he's.
He's seen six targets 2 weeks in a row.
Like, yeah, put him in the in the in the category of tight
ends, firmly with a pulse. Yes, yeah, for sure, for sure
with a pulse, you know, all those 20th round Theo Johnson
shares that I took. You know, I'm, I'm thinking how
smart I am that he's on the back of all my rosters now.
I'm just, there's a lot of fragility with it.
It's like, does Drew Lock target Theo Johnson as much as Daniel
Jones did? Like, and, and that's not only a
negative thing like that can also be a positive.
Like if you if you end up getting out there and Drew Lock
just happens to have a crush on Theo Johnson and he's just
peppering him with targets like that could be a really good
thing. So it's, it's a wide range of
outcomes here, but the opportunity looks like it could
be there for Theo Johnson. He he's just, he's on the field
a lot, which is great. Like that's really bullish for
him. You know, to be a rookie tight
end that's on the field, like, you know, damn near 100% of the
time, it's pretty damn good. So I just wanted to, you know,
he's he's definitely worth a, an ad on FFPC.
I I would say yeah, he's harder to use in non tight end premium
formats. But I mean, just for example,
Tray McBride is on a bye week this week.
What's that? So is Theo Johnson.
Oh, Oh yeah, good point. Good point.
But if he weren't, imagine. Yeah, imagine.
Imagine. Well, you know, call.
Pitts is on a buy next week. They.
But I, I, I I think, I think that's apart, apart from him
being like a pretty interesting stash and and not the worst and
flex play in in, in high end premium.
I I think that's the way to think about him for and non
tight end premium. I don't, I, I guess I, I, he's
probably borderline for playable on dog Bowl where you have to
like it's, it's what, a draft of a draft of 12?
Yeah. And so you like he's he could be
Titan 12 in ADP and that that could be OK.
Yeah, let me I'm. Going to pull up.
Not this week, obviously. I'm.
Pulling up, I'm pulling up the slate next week.
I want to look, I want to see if I can do some Theo Johnson.
Oh baby, Theo Johnson against the Bucks on a let's see.
Looks like A10 game slate Theo Oh boy.
OK, 20 total tight ends. Some of them are just not
fantasy players. Yeah, playable.
That's very playable. Yeah, he's playable next week.
All right, let's let's mum's the word on Theo Johnson, everybody.
We all, we all get there, man. That's.
Everybody, everybody watching this, please forget until after
next week. It's the last week to qualify to
next week. I mean, Draco, I think I think
it's writing itself. It's quite Yeah.
It's, you know, zero dog bowl tickets yet despite, you know,
my efforts. Maybe I get there on the back of
Theo Johnson, one of my favorite rookie Titans to draft this
whole offseason. Oh, I I see it now.
All right, the. Just like with impeccable
timing, Sam pops in. OK, give me the give me the
backup tight end chart. Unfortunately, Sam, I still have
guys that I want to talk about. Oh, actually I'm going to jump
one spot in my notes to talk about a player that I know Sam
is going to be happy to hear about the Dalton Kincaid injury.
I mean, it was already over for Dalton Kincaid, but do you think
that the Dawson knocks like number one, how big a difference
is there between Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid?
Do you view them as as at all different this week?
If you were, you know, if you were going to start Dalton
Kincaid, would you just start Dawson Knox instead?
Well, to be fair, even with the kind of limited route tree,
Dalton Kincaid was seeing targets like if you look at the
average from week 4 to week nine, you're looking at an
average of about 7 targets a game.
And then if I if like, just because you've set the bar so
low, like I, I, I want to, I want to shit on Dalton Kincaid
as much as the next guy, but when the buyer is Dawson Knox
and that is a lot harder to do. And, and to to be fair to Dalton
Kincaid, the reason he didn't have a really good game this
last week was that Josh Allen stunk out loud when he threw the
ball to him. In fact, one of the passes was
so, so abhorrent that it injured Dalton Kincaid.
He laid out to try and get it and he came down really
awkwardly on his knee. So, and, and honestly, there
have been this, this sounds like this is what you might hear from
a Dalton Kincaid copium enjoyer. And I, I need to, you know,
firmly state that I am not that I'm president of the Dalton
Kincaid hater fan club, but I should be way more wrong this
season than it's turned out. And, and I did, I drafted, I
think I had like 10% Dalton Kincaid.
So I came in ever so slightly overweight because I didn't want
to be so confident that I was wrong or or that Dalton Kincaid
was bad in a situation like the Bill's offense where it really
looked like he could potentially consolidate a lot of targets,
which would be incredible for the tight end position, right?
So I would be a lot more wrong on my opinion that Dalton
Kincaid stinks this year if things broke ever so slightly
different for him. And I don't think a lot of that
is talent related. A a big chunk of it is is
literally just been like unlucky on the quality of some of the
targets, especially like the deeper ones, which yes, those
are going to be harder to complete, but still like the he
he's been running bad on some plays that would have otherwise
been splash plays for him. Yeah, yeah, you know, it it it's
hard to sell me on the idea that hit the offense uttered.
I know the volume has been bad. The volume hasn't been great.
But in terms of like the the efficiency environment, he does
play with Josh Allen like, and it's like if you can't play
efficiently with Josh Allen, it does sound like a skill issue.
I, I think that's the most likely outcome.
I just, I also want it to be known that in the, in the range
of outcomes, it, it definitely seems like Kincaid could have
gotten there this season, probably not like the, the top
end of his range that people were thinking was possible in
the summer that didn't actually exist because he's not, he's not
that talented. That's the, that's the part that
we are missing. But he like an 80th percentile
outcome for Kincaid would be probably like Titan 4 or
something, you know, like he, he definitely could have had a
really good season is all I'm saying.
Right, right, right. It, it, I mean, what people said
about Kincaid was that if the Bills are going to be good then
or if they're going to have a good passing attack, then
Kincaid has to be a big part of that.
And the Bills tried to make that happen, but it didn't work out.
So like some of the thesis was was correct but it didn't work
out. Yeah, All right, we can.
We can move on from Kincaid. I had two pretty quick guys I
wanted to get your opinion on real quick.
We talked a little bit about this guy.
So Cole Comet, the guy I chose to lose a lot of money on last
week playing in dog bowl drafts with Caleb, is he worth a dart
throw this week now that Walter is gone?
I mean, I think, I think command is good.
The problem, I guess some of the problem is that he's actually,
he actually has been playing a lot of routes.
It's not like they've taken him off the field for these
inexplicable reasons. And I, I, I like command a lot.
I have a decent amount of them, but he ran 80% of routes last
week on 41 drop backs and and I guess he had four targets for 13
yards and the offense did just stink and five targets, 70
yards, 4 targets, 57 yards. And then he had a weird, a
really weird game where he didn't run that many Reds in in
week. I think it's week 9, a week
eight week 8, I should say. Yeah.
But I, I, I guess that the tight end position can be spiky.
And in weeks where Caleb Williams played well, like I I
guess you've got that weak tree game where where command
smashed, you've got yeah, I, I don't I, I, I think it's tough,
but it's possible. But it's tough is is how I'd say
it. Like it.
It's like Coca met my baseline expectation for his talent isn't
so high that I think you should just throw out per recent
results. Yeah, that that makes sense.
OK. The other guy I wanted your
opinion on TJ Hawkinson. Is he all the way back now?
And is he startable this week against the Titans?
So all the way back, so he was 71% route share in, in, in week
10, up from 60%. So if you're, if you're
extrapolating there, you say that's going to that could be
80% this week, which is pretty good, right run for tight end,
30% targets per run. So at 9 targets, 72 yards.
And I mean, I, I do think that like even weak tree in, in, in
your first couple of games back from ACL injuries is still very
much part of the recovery process.
But that like getting 9 targets and 71% rent rate is pretty
good. So I, I think, I think you can
play this guy with the hope that he's getting with the idea that
he's getting ramped back up. I don't think it's there yet,
but I think I, I think that I think you can play based on what
we've seen so far pretty easily. Yeah, I I agree with you.
He's definitely in play for me this week.
He's a little, he's a little rich for me on underdog.
He's going off as the tight end 5 going ahead of Mark Andrews,
Evan Ingram, Taysom Hill, Sam Laporta, Tucker Kraft, Kyle
Pitts. So he's he's going a little
rich. I don't even know that that's
necessarily wrong. But I, I mean, I think another
part of it too, is like the pumpkinification of Sam Darnold
might be contributing to the fact that like that might be
leading to this inordinate target share for TJ Hawkinson,
where Darnold is just like regressing back into the Darnold
that we were pretty familiar with over his career so far.
And so Hawkinson is just just really nice safety blanket for
him. And I wonder if he just
continues to lean on him heavily like we saw in this last game.
So that's that's another wrinkle there that I just want to keep
an eye on. OK, We spent a lot of time on
the tight end chart here. I did have one last thing where
I just want to rapid fire and ask you how dead these fringe
tight ends are that we are drafting in best ball.
So if you're looking at a best ball roster and you see this
tight end on your line up, is this a guy that's totally dead
or he could randomly do something for you in the
playoffs? So just quick, quick answers.
I'm going to hit you at some names here.
First one, no a fan. No a fan that.
That seems pretty bad seems pretty bad and I guess some of
that's because he's injured, but so I guess if I'm being so I'm
being fully respectful here. He's put up some decent games.
So like you, you can, I guess I'm going to change my mind
there, looking at this data that you you you can get some solid
games from no fans like that. That seems pretty realistic.
Let's let's sit on the backups chart while we go through the
rest of these games because that's where a decent number of
them live. There's no offense right at the
top, Juan Johnson. Oh that, that's, that's like so
fucking bad. That's not good, Colby
Parkinson. And did he get hurt?
He was hurt two, he was hurt two weeks ago, last week I believe
he was not on the injury report. He just got significantly out
snapped by Davis Allen. All the all the sharks, all the
Showdown sharks were slamming Davis Allen.
Yay. I don't think he got a target.
He's not showing up on that. No, no, Parkinson did not.
It was. It was Davis Allen all day.
Yeah, that's that's not great for him.
And so, yeah, if he's gotten cooked, then then then he's
cooked. OK.
Dalton Schultz, Dalton Schultz. So like Dalton Schultz was
drafted higher, much higher than all of these guys.
So the fact that he's like in this discussion is really bad.
Yes, and you got Nico coming back and he hasn't been able to
earn anything. With Nico gone.
I I think it's curtains for Dalton Schultz, Tyler Conklin.
Tyler Conklin I'm, I'm actually, I'm, I'm forced to start him in
my home link this week, so I I hope he's there.
Like at. Least this week he he can do
something so you're looking at pretty like in the last four
games he's played 77% in rat rat run, you're looking at 10%
targets, but run you're just hoping for a touchdown here that
that's. You're this is this is like you
should have dropped them in like round 18 in, in BBM and you're
hoping you can get a touchdown. Yeah.
All right, last one Pat Fryer youth.
Pat Fryerman Oh my God, did you, by the way, did you see in in
Davis's discord that somebody tied all and said, oh, hey, Pat
Fryerman or Noah fan or or something like that?
That was very funny. Yeah, Pat, fire me with dead or
alive. Based on where you drafted him,
pretty dead. Pretty dead here.
Yeah. All right.
Let's move to the wide receiver charts.
We'll we'll bring it home. I think we're going to get out
of here under 2 hours, pretty safe with Draco.
That's a milestone for us. So the first guy, I mean, we got
to talk about this guy. He's coming off a BI.
So nothing, nothing new happened this last week.
But I do think we've got to talk about him this week.
How are you treating JSN this week?
Are you just assuming the breakout is going to be the new
normal and you want to play him aggressively into San Francisco
or how are you handling him here?
So. You can't ignore a breakout like
that where he he just completely dominates and they they
completely, they completely changed his routes that they
they had him from like running only predominantly short stuff
to just covering every blade of grass.
And he dominated coming out of the bye week.
I can't see them like ignoring that.
So I'd be like cautiously optimistic that he continues
that kind of run. But I guess you have a good
chance of DK Metcalf coming back and not equalizing out.
But I'm, I'm, I'm like cautiously optimistic that
that's like that's going to stick.
Let me hit you with a couple guys that are going ahead of him
right now in underdog drafts, Courtland Sutton or JSN.
Oh JSN, that's not a question. Senator Tillman or JSN?
JSN Are these the guys that are going ahead of them?
Oh yeah? Oh, baby Calvin Ridley or JSN?
JSN. Yeah, what?
What I I like have one week where I'm not able to draft
early in the week prior to projections being out and we've
got shit like Drake London being drafted after Courtland Sutton.
What's going on, people? What are you doing?
Yeah, that's that's, that's a little wild.
Hello hello, anyone out there? Are there any signs of
intelligent life anywhere? JSN or DeAndre Hopkins.
I think it's JSN, like just because you, you saw, you saw a
life of that like incredible ceiling, whereas I, I think Nuke
has a better ceiling than those other guys.
But I I'm I'm still favoring JSN right now.
Yeah, OK. The we the I feel like the theme
of this episode has been can we actually play Chicago players?
So Keenan and DJ Moore both are on this chart.
They both live O Doonese too. All all three of them live in
this bottom left quadrant. Like I wonder how many teams
even can have all three receivers in the bottom left
quadrant of of the first wide receiver chart.
Like that seems incredible to me.
I don't think we've ever seen that before.
So I mean, what that suggests to me is that these guys, they all
they have a lock on rideshare, but they're they're kind of
cannibalizing each other. None of them is kind of like
setting ahead of the odor, like separating ahead of the odor in,
in targets. And none of them is actually
separating in terms of production either.
So that that, that that does make it tricky like who do you
pick? And I think, I think you
probably like pick the rookie or, or I, I think Keenan Allen
is probably the odd man out there if you're trying to figure
out what has to change given he's the older guy.
Is, is, is how I would look at that.
Yeah, I'm gosh, I I want to be brave and play the bears again
after they just stuck out loud with.
I just, I don't know how I'm gonna I'm gonna have to do some
soul searching and and think about how volatile I I think
this spot really is or if it's just gonna be the same bears but
with a slightly different odor, you know, like am I, am I, am I
switching from just like jar full of farts to terrible body
odor? Like, is that what I'm huffing
when I play the bears? So I don't know.
I'm gonna have to figure out if I'm willing to want to do that
to myself again. Those are honestly the only wide
receivers I wanted to talk about on on this chart.
I didn't every everyone else, I feel like, you know, not a ton
has changed. We kind of know what these guys
are. I guess we, we, we could do like
a check in of, of Devante and Garrett Wilson where I guess I,
I, I, I was, I was kind of wrong on them, on the amount of
targets that Devante could earn. And but then you you look at the
the A dot and it's it's like all short stuff.
So Devante has this like good volume of short A dot targets.
Whereas if you look at at Garrett Wilson and his, his A
dot is in the last two games has been short over the year of this
season, it's 9.7 and his, his, his target count has been lower.
So maybe I, I was probably a little bit premature in saying
that he's kind of the alpha there.
Like I, I think if you watch the games, he's clearly a better
receiver. But it I, I guess the, the trust
factor with Devante is, is important for Rodgers, even if
it's not working better than than Garrett Wilson targets that
that trust factor does seem important.
Yeah, I mean, he got an absurd. Did he get 13 targets this last
week? Yeah, so.
Sticks for Wilson. When you're getting that much
volume like you could, you just can end up with a monster game.
You know, like if you get 13 targets, like good stuff could
happen, especially when you know, if you get Rogers with
like that locked in on one guy mode where he he will do that,
especially like when you get down and you get some in zone
opportunities, like you could easily get a three touchdown
Devante Adams game. So the here here's the problem.
The Jets are so slow with their pace of play that it makes me
really hesitant to ever play Rogers.
Like I, I honestly am like getting to the point where I
don't know that Rogers is even a viable play.
Like on underdog, I don't think Rogers is really a viable play.
Like almost ever. He he has to be going last round
and even then, like the slate has to be super short.
So there's just not a lot of competition at quarterback.
Like he he can't get passed by that many people.
So I guess in, you know, weeks like these where there's a
decent number of buys that feel like a time when you could
consider Rogers. But I, I think for the most
part, I just want to play if I am going to be playing Jets
receivers, I don't want to stack them.
And, and I talked about this earlier in the show, like you
saw such a high rate of Devonta and Garrett Wilson being stacked
with Rogers last week that if if you don't stack with Rogers and
one of those guys hits and Rogers doesn't get there, you're
at such an advantage. Because so many of the teams
that have Adams and Wilson are taking this free stack with
Aaron Rodgers and then just hamstringing themself when like
you can just say, hey, it's the week where Devante Adams gets 2
touchdowns and Aaron Rodgers throws for 220 yards and those
two touchdowns. And I don't give a shit about
those Rodgers points. Like that doesn't do anything
for me. You know, give me Brock Purdy,
who's going to throw for three touchdowns, but they're going to
be spread out. And so I don't, you know, I'm
happy to have Devante with Brock Purdy instead of taking Aaron
Rodgers, so. I the only thing it is kind of
wild that Devante had 13 targets and only 94 air yards.
It's hard. It is hard for me to see that
being like a like a big like touchdown game, but it can
certainly happen. But I, I, I do want to like kind
of make that note. And I'm sorry for interrupting
your your excellent point. No, no, no, I I agree with you.
It's not, it's not like in the past when Devante was getting,
you know, 13 targets and they were coming further down the
field and you know, he'd he'd be putting up, you know, 150 a 180
yards on on those targets. Like what I'm thinking is it's
much more likely that if he is going to get there on this high
target volume, low A dot stuff, it's because The Jets are
actually functional on offense, get a couple of opportunities
and he's able to convert that way.
But you would think you would think normally if that was like,
oh, this is my thesis on how this player gets here.
This is the most likely outcome for him to be a guy you need in
a week be like, great. That's a great spot to stack
with the quarterback. And even if Rodgers has like A2
touchdown game, like even a three touchdown game from Aaron
Rodgers is probably like you're not gonna get 300 passing yards
from Aaron Rodgers. Like they just, they don't run
enough plays. It's so hard to get 300 passing
yards for him like. Especially true Devante like 94
area yards and then 31 actual like real boy yards on 13
targets. Like, yeah, like Rogers, the the
highest yardage total, let's see him just going back over his
last five games. So he did hit 294 yards once.
That was against the Bills. But other than that, it's been
like 151, two hundred, 11233, two, 76.
And the games where he actually, like put up a decent number of
yards, one of them was the Pittsburgh game where they're
just like getting clobbered and they're just in full come from
behind mode, right? So they're actually throwing and
playing with some semblance of pace, not not like what you
actually should be doing. Still too slow.
And then the Bills game where they were trailing a bunch and
and working you. Want to know the last time
Rogers eclipsed 300 passing yards?
Oh man. It was Week 14 of 2021.
Yeah, so. Three years ago.
I'm just, I'm gonna not play Aaron Rodgers in weekly formats
and I'm gonna sleep like a baby. But that that doesn't mean that
I'm out on his receivers. God, it feels it feels gross.
I might, I might have a sprinkle of of either of them this week
against the Colts. Yeah, just 'cause they, they've
been such a per defense. Yeah.
All right, let's move on to. The next one moving on.
And so this is our 70 to 85% reps run guys.
These are guys who are still starters, very fairly starters.
They're just not at the close to 100% Rep rate.
Not the first chart is. The first guy that I wanted to
talk about here was Jawan Jennings.
So on on the preview show that Pat and I do over on the Leg Up
channel every Friday, We talked about the 49ers spot last week
because I was really in on Brock Purdy and and we discussed, you
know, Ricky Pearsall versus Juwan Jennings.
And I was I was pretty excited about Pearsall potentially like,
you know, getting, getting the breakout out of the by, you
know, getting getting more opportunities.
He's the first round pick. Maybe they want to like see what
he can do. And Pat really like kind of
grounded me on Jawan Jennings. It's like, I mean, Jennings has
been really good this year. Like I think I think it's
Jennings over Pierce all straight up and early in the
game. I almost messed after the Ricky
Pierce all, you know, long touchdown.
I almost messaged Pat like, oh, I should've should've just
slammed Pierce. All I knew it.
And then Jennings goes on to just earn an incredible amount
of targets. Like looks pretty good the whole
game. I mean, I, I just think there's
too large a projection gap right now and there probably will be
for a little while 'cause it's just like you can't, it's going
to be hard to project Joan Jennings to be like 90% of
Brandon Iuke, you know, But I, I don't think it's that.
That's what he's playing like. Yeah, yeah.
And so Debo Samuel is getting projected like this incredible
play every slate. And Joan Jennings is like, not
that different in my opinion. And so you got, you got the
target volume again last week. Like he's getting deeper down
the field stuff like I'm pretty in on Joan Jennings.
I mean, playoff basketball hero from last year.
Maybe there's a chance he runs it back this year.
I, I just, I like Joan Jennings a lot.
I'll probably have a ton of him this week.
That's probably where I'm just going to.
I looked at the ETR projections. They've they've got him.
They agree more with the underdog market.
They've got him lower. That's a spot where I'm just
going to disagree. I'm just going to smash Jawan
Jennings this week. And and the problem with that,
like this is the most likely outcome is this ages poorly.
But it's because the 49ers distribution of points can be
volatile because there's a lot of weapons there.
Even with Jawan Jennings. Like you've got George Kittle,
you've got Christian McCaffrey, you've got Debo, and then you've
got Jennings and Pearsall. And I think all five of those
guys are alive to have a good game in any given week.
That is part of what makes the 49ers so good is their offense
can can work through by getting lots of different viable weapons
the ball. So I'm not saying it's a sure
thing that Jawan Jennings gets through this week.
I'm just saying that he is not being priced at what his
ceiling. His ceiling outcome is not being
respected in this price. That's all.
Yeah, and and so you obviously you don't want to get too
carried away about one good game.
However, and you look at week 1, he had sorry.
Bless. You he had a 26% tiger spread
run. Week three it was 35%, week 4
was 30%, week 6 was 29% and then last week it was 28%.
So to his credit, he has been like a consistent volume earner
in the offense. He's also, he is a guy they like
to target in the end zone too. Even go back to last year when
they had all of their guys healthy, Jawan Jennings would
still get in zone targets because he's a big bodied guy
and they like him down there. And so yeah, Jawan Jennings like
grab the edge with both hands and hold on to it while you can.
We're not guaranteed to make it, but I it's a good spot, man.
I think it's a really good spot. Yeah, yeah, I, I agree.
Your your next note was about Tyreek Hill.
And when do we, when we start to get worried, when we start
getting concerned? I mean, it's hard not to be
worried right? Where like this is a dramatic,
dramatic fall off from last year and the year before so and the
the wrist injury could certainly be a part of it, but this is a
big fall off. Yeah, I mean, I, I, I looked
back at his game log with Tua. So the game log with Tua this
year so far. Let me let me go back and pull
this up. So he has four full games with
Tua this season. He's averaging 74 1/2 yards and
half a touchdown per game. So definitely worse than last
season, right? Like he's he's averaging
astronomical numbers last year, but it's not such a huge
deviation from last year. Like he's had three games that
for most receivers you would say are pretty good.
Like like 70 something yards, 80 something yards, 130 yards.
So he has he has the the one, the 12 target 130 yard game in
week 1. But then other than that, like
you have some like OK games like you're mentioning like 7 yard
games. And then last week he had the 16
yard game. Yeah, last week was a stinker.
Like given given just a consistent domination from from
Tyreke in in 23 and 22. Like this is a stark contrast.
Like Stark? The the one thing I'll say to
add a little bit of context to last week's game, if you watch
that game, it was one of the strangest games.
I believe there were like 5 They're they're.
Yeah, there was back-to-back to back in turnovers.
There was. There's no many turnovers, yeah.
I mean, if you were playing that Showdown slate, you needed the
kickers and you needed defenses because that's all that game
really was. So I mean.
It was, but he's not like a victim of that circumstance,
like he's an active participant. Yeah, I mean, he's he's not out
there throwing the interceptions or he was not fumbling the ball,
you know? Right, but if he's getting open
for easy easy scores like he normally does, then why don't
they just easy button show deep to Tyreek like?
So yeah, no, I, I'm, I'm with you here.
It's definitely a little concerning the the wrist injury
stuff like only now getting brought to our attention.
I feel like probably adds like it just adds a lot of panic to
like the market sentiment on Tyreke.
And I don't know like the the wrist injury, like it's not
going to affect his ability to get open or run routes like
unless the guys out there like running on his hands and I'm not
seeing it like really the only thing that he should be
concerned about is. Is it actually impacting his
ability to catch the ball or is it shifting the way that the
dolphins are using him because they don't want him to have to
make like deeper down the field target or deeper down the field
catches because that's harder on his wrist or something.
And and I don't know that's, you know, just speculating there.
But if I, if you made me pick a side here on, you know, Tyreke's
going to be fine versus Tyreke's not going to be fine.
I think I just want to be on the Tyreke's going to be fine side
and and benefit from that when the market's wrong.
So what? Where is he?
Yeah, where? What's his ADP in in dog bowls
right now? Yeah, Tyreke goes.
So he's 4. Because you didn't say to you,
you said the market, but you meant me, no?
No, no, no. Architects.
No, no, the I mean the market is like if you're if you're out
there in the streets, like people are panicking about
Tyreke. They're like asking like, oh,
should I trade Tyreke in my season long league?
Like people are are legit worried about Tyreke, but he's
his ADP is 14.5. He's going after puka.
Him and George Pickens go back-to-back, Yeah, I mean.
That seems appropriate that that seems more like, you know this
guy hasn't done shit all year rather than like a true panic
Bryce. Yeah, I think I'll probably have
a lot of Tyreke this week. Think if Tyreke and Jawan
Jennings are the wide receivers that you need this week.
I'm going. I'm getting a dog Bowl ticket.
So what I I, I hope they are. All right, the other notes, oh,
I just this one, we don't have to spend any time on this note
just says George Pickens is so effing good 'cause he is, I
mean, might might be a top five NFL receiver right now in my
opinion. OK, couple quick ones.
Josh Downs with Anthony Richardson back.
I mean, we saw really good stuff from Josh Downs outside of the
very frustrating drop for a walk in touchdown last week.
But he he has looked great. But do you think it's a
significant downgrade with AR back?
You know, Flacco's been so bad. I, I, I I kind of don't think
so. I hope you're right.
I would really like for Josh Downs to keep being good because
he's a fun player. Like it's hard to get like 10
targets and put up a bad game like 10 targets for 72 yards.
That doesn't seem like irreplaceable efficiency to me.
Yeah, I, I think I am a little more pessimistic than you, but
I, I'm, I would be so happy to be wrong.
The other guy I had a note on was Terry Mclaurin going against
the Eagles, who have not been great in past coverage.
Really. The Eagles have like one good DB
in Couper de Jean and and outside of that they leave a lot
to be desired. What do you what do you think
about Terry Mclaurin this week here against the Eagles tomorrow
night? So I guess just to like think
about Terry Mclaurin, he's so he's averaging a 23% and targets
per outrun this year with that that's been about 100 area yards
per game. So he's at 23% target Sprite run
with like a pretty high A dot. And with that normally comes
kind of like volatile games. And and that's kind of what
we've seen here where he opened the year 17 yards, 22 yards and
he hit 100 yards, 52 yards, 112 yards.
In Week 9, he had 19 yards and 113 yards.
So I think what you're getting here is kind of like a pretty
volatile, pretty volatile play. And then we hit, he really hits.
So I mean, obviously you're playing him in season long and
all that kind of stuff. And then for, for showdown
stuff, I, I guess that the way to play that kind of volatility
is just a bat against the market.
If the market is just a loading up on Terry Mclaurin, I think
he's fine to fade. If, if, if you're getting a
decent price, then then you play him.
And I guess the only way that he would be low owned would be like
a high salary, but he's probably still playable at a high salary
if the ownership is low enough. Yeah, I'll, I'll tell you
tomorrow how much Cherry Mclaurin I end up playing.
All right, the OK, last one on this chart and then we'll we'll
bring it on home with the final wide receiver chart.
So we talked about Jawan Jennings, but his teammate Ricky
Pearsall is also on this chart. Granted, he is in the opposite
quadrant of Joan Jennings, he's in the bottom left quadrant
here. But who would you rather have
rest of season, Ricky Pearsall or Joan Jennings?
Oh, Joan Jennings like no, no question. 00 question.
I I. I think I'm a noted like I round
of noted hater for Ricky Pearsall where I think he's like
kind of jaggy and he has the first round draft capital, but
he's his production is kind of Jackie, his usage kind of
Jackie. So I have AI have a follow up
question because I I felt the same way as you that it's Jawan
Jennings pretty easily over Pierce all the rest of the
season. But what if we were drafting
best ball teams today for next? Season of the next season.
Would you take Jawan Jennings or would you take Ricky Pierce?
All they're back-to-back in this hypothetical way, way, way, way,
way too early. Basketball, yeah.
I mean that that for next season that feels really close because
all the production is so heavily in favor of Juan Jennings.
But then next season is so far away that like all these things,
different things would happen. And you probably like you, you
can project pure sell high higher for next year than you
can this year. But in terms of like this year,
there's a big gap. The the college production stuff
is not that great. And you're just hanging on to
that first round draft capital, which is is very important.
But like, the more his NFL production matches his his kind
of mediocre college production, the the less inclined them to
give weight to that first round Drop capital.
Yeah, I think that is very well said.
And with that, let's move on to the final chart.
We're going to, we're going to safely make it in under 2 hours
here, Draco, as long as you don't lollygag too much here.
So the first guy I had a note on on this chart is the one the
only only bit of cream rising to the top of this chart of Cedric
Tillman. He so he had he had the one very
impressive game where he catches, you know, the the big
touchdown play. Then he has what should have
been a pretty poor game, but then gets there in garbage time
with Jameis before the bye. Now coming off the bye.
Are you at all interested in Tillman against the Saints here?
Like how do you? Yeah.
I mean, he's interesting, but you're telling me I have to drop
him ahead of, like, Drake London, JSM.
Yeah. Yes.
I don't. I don't think that makes any
sense. What?
OK, Cedric Tillman or Jayden Reid.
That's probably Jayden Reid. Yeah, Cedric Tillman or Devante
Adams. Tillman, Tillman.
Really. OK.
Yeah, well, well, if you look at their raw target counts, so like
Devante, he had 13 targets last week and Tillman in the last
three games is averaging 10 targets a game.
But then his A dot is like 11/18/12 and like so, so to me
that that's a lot friendlier of a of a a target profile than
what the van. Like to me the Devante targets
are true old man like 7-8 yard A dot throws.
Like I I, I value this the the Tillman sophomore.
OK, last one, Tillman or Jawan Jennings?
And that's, that feels pretty close.
That feels pretty close. Markets way too low on Jennings.
I mean, if you drafted off ADP, you'd literally never.
And you had those guys right next to each other, you'd never,
right, go on Jennings. So, all right, this guy's an
interesting one. What do you think of Xavier
Leggett with Adam Thielen coming back?
Is it, is it curtains for Leggett?
How? How are you approaching him?
So I guess if you're looking at the last five games, he's been
at an 84% route share. Last game is at 96.
Given that he's the first round rookie, I, I, I don't think he
can put that back. If you look at his average
target spread run, it's been at 18% and with a couple of spikes
in there and it's hard. I, I mean, I, I truly don't want
to give Adam Thielen too much respect and but it's a small pie
and, and if he takes a, a decent amount of it inefficiently, then
that does hurt. Like I, I that I don't deal him
back does make me a little bit wary.
Like it's, it's always like, look at was to actually play him
was always kind of gross anyway. And so that additional fly makes
it just that much more gross. Yeah, no, I I pretty much agree
with everything that you're saying.
All right, we can move on to the last guy, John Mechi.
So did not do much for the majority of the time that Nico
has missed, but finally flashes a little bit in this last game
that he'll have before Nico comes back.
Do you think he did enough to kind of secure his role as the
number 3 receiver in this offense with Nico back?
Or is Mechi just going to fade back into obscurity now?
So who? Who was the guy that they were
playing ahead of him before? They had gosh, what is his name?
Xavier Hutchinson. OK.
And so he had, I guess he had a good game where he had 6
targets, 74 yards, and then I think he had a touchdown as
well. And and then Hutchinson has done
basically nothing. Yeah, Hutchinson, basically
nothing. And I, I, I, I I don't know.
I I To be honest, I'm not sure I care.
OK, Yeah. These are pretty periphery guys
and we pushed even further out now.
Yeah, that's fair. All right.
Well, that was the last guy I had a note on.
Is there anyone else you wanted to talk about here before you?
Wrap up. I'm looking through this chart.
No, not really. There's nobody here that we we
haven't spent them or sorry, I don't want to say nobody, but
most of the guys that we would speak about here, we've spent a
decent amount of air time discussing already.
All right, well, Draco, congratulations Sir, we did it.
This might be one of the very few stat chasing episodes under
2 hours. Before we go, I do want to plug
playoff best ball content over at Legendary Upside.
It's going to be coming soon. We should be seeing some playoff
best ball contests in the lobby at Underdog, but really any day
now we're going to have the sidekick up and running for
those. So if you're already subscribed
to the sidekick, you'll have that ready to rock'n'roll when
we've got those contests out in the lobby.
And then we'll also have some written content.
We'll be doing some video content over on the Leg Up
YouTube channel. We'll certainly have podcasts
and things like that. So just make sure you're
checking us out for all of your playoff baseball content.
It is probably my favorite format of of fantasy, so
definitely would encourage you to check that out if you haven't
played that. Before, yeah, agreed and always
great content and and A and a truly fantastic format.
All right, with that, we will sign off here and we will see
you next week on our typical date of Tuesday.
Good luck the rest of this week. See an as See it next week.
Everyone on on Tuesday. Goodbye.