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We are live with a very special 
Wednesday edition of Stat 

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Chasing. 
We're through 10 weeks of the 

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NFL season and Best Ball Bros 
are frantically scouring their 

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portfolios looking for Christian
McCaffrey teams that they can 

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delude themselves into thinking 
how a snowball's chance in hell 

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of advancing. 
This is Stat Chasing. 

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Pat Fryer, Helmo Anita Handjob. 
Fix your sight. 

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Jamar Alpha play Chase. 
You can't handle the heat. 

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It looks like we're finally at 
this point. 

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You're right. 
I I think we owe the people an 

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explanation, Draco, for why we 
were not here for our typical 

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Tuesday show. 
Unfortunately, PFF did not have 

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the expected points metrics up 
for running backs, which is a 

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key component for our running 
back charts. 

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So we we waited. 
We waited until the last minute 

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on Tuesday, hadn't heard 
anything from PFF, and then we 

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decided to push the show for one
day, assuming that surely the 

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expected points would be up the 
next day. 

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They still are not up, so we're 
just rolling on with the show. 

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We're going to have two fewer 
charts for you tonight, but I 

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think we'll still have the same 
hard hitting analysis that 

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you're tuning in for. 
Yeah. 

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And to be honest, it felt kind 
of inappropriate to have two, 

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two separate. 
We had like, well. 

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I don't know if I'm lagging or 
you're lagging, but I am not 

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hearing you right now. 
If you can hear me, go ahead and

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type in the private chat, Paul 
with an excellent comment. 

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I would, I would absolutely 
highlight your comment if I 

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could hear Paul, because that is
great. 

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But Draco is on the ones and 
twos. 

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Producer Mark says he believes 
that Draco is lagging. 

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And I don't even think I am able
to present the charts because 

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again, Draco, Draco is 
controlling that. 

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So we'll just, we'll kill some 
time here while we wait for 

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Draco to come back. 
Let's see. 

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So Week 10, I'm not going to get
into the meat of anything until 

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we get Draco back here for the 
charts. 

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We 10 for me was an OK week. 
Didn't didn't have anything 

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super exciting on the main 
slate. 

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Had a couple dog bowl teams that
had a chance and then had their 

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had their dreams dashed per 
usual. 

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OK. 
We, we have Draco back now and 

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he said I don't know if I'm 
logging or if you're logging I. 

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Immediately cut off in the 
stream. 

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That's all Internet access, so I
think we can safely say it was 

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me who was lagging. 
Well, I'm, I'm glad you made it 

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back because my vamping 
abilities were, we were, we were

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getting near the end of my 
vamping rope there. 

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So. 
I'm sure you had plenty left in 

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the air in the bike. 
Well, we can as soon as you're 

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able, we can go ahead and get 
the charts up here and dive 

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right into them. 
I've I've kept the people 

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waiting long enough here. 
Yeah, 5 minutes into the show we

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said, we said, we said it was 
going to be the quickest show 

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ever, but we're actually going 
to make up for it for with 

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complete gloss, No stop talking 
whatsoever. 5 minutes will start

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talking. 2 hours and 25 minutes 
of absolutely nonsense. 

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So why don't you go ahead and 
just? 

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For, yeah. 
And we've got expected points 

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from passing, which that's 
that's kind of our main volume 

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metric for quarterbacks. 
And then we've got adjusted 

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yards per tent, which is our 
kind of main efficiency metric. 

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And then the size of the bubble 
corresponds to rushing yardage, 

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because obviously that's a big 
component of quarterback fantasy

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scoring. 
Yeah, and, and if you are tuning

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in for the very first time in 
week 10, welcome and let us know

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in the comments. 
I, I highly doubt that there's 

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anyone who this is their first 
ever stat chasing show that 

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they're watching. 
But it would be fun to know that

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the the first note I had on this
quarterback chart, though, was a

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guy that we've both since he has
gotten the start this season, 

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we've both been certified haters
and that's Russell Wilson. 

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So he's still in a pretty 
favorable spot on the chart, 

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albeit he's he's come down. 
Trying to keep getting away with

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this. 
He can't keep getting away with 

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it And I, I did watch every snap
of this game. 

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Nobody watches the film like a 
hater. 

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Yeah, exactly. 
There's no no motivation better 

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than wanting to make sure that 
you're well informed to hate on 

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a player that you think is bad. 
And he was really bad. 

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The I heard a couple people 
whose opinions that I respect 

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say that he had a a good game. 
I didn't really see that I to 

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and to be perfectly objective, I
will say he had one excellent 

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throw. 
That was the Mike Williams 

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touchdown. 
That was just an absolute dot. 

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Like that was where it needed to
be. 

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So great throw. 
It was clutch is the textbook 

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definition of what a big time 
throw is. 

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So I don't want to take the good
things away from him, but I do 

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want to point out like what 
we're getting from Russell 

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Wilson is like, in a lot of ways
measurably worse than what we 

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are getting from Justin Fields. 
I, I, I'm like not so thoroughly

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convinced that because Russell 
Wilson is is chucking up these 

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deep shots and they're 
connecting that it's 

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substantially different than 
what they'd be getting from 

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Justin Fields. 
So just from watching this game,

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he took three sacks on 33 dot 
backs. 

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That's not good through an 
interception only had a 50% 

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completion percentage, 14 
completions on 28 attempts. 

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He does keep throwing touchdowns
so that you know, that is hard 

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to argue with. 
And then he does get a really 

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good match up against the Ravens
this week. 

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So are you in on Russell Wilson 
this week? 

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Would you would you be playing 
him in any daily or weekly 

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formats? 
So. 

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I I guess just running through 
the numbers here on, on Russell 

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Wilson, if we're, if we're being
fully honest. 

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So Week 10 was by far the worst 
week of of his season so far 

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where he had an average yards 
per sorry, adjusted yards per 

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attempt in in Week 7 and 8 of 
10.510 point 6 and then down at 

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7 1/2 in in week 10. 
And what's kind of interesting 

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is that despite the low 
completion percentage, that's 

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still like that's still pretty 
close to the upper part of the 

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chart. 
So even on that bad week, But 

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then if you look, I guess when 
you factor in those socks, he 

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comes down to 6.4 per drop back,
which I, I, I think that that's 

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a kind of like a feature of 
Russell Wilson's game where we 

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talked about this last year 
where he's a lot, he's usually a

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lot worse on per drop back 
metrics than per attempt. 

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And then regarding the the match
up with the Ravens, I mean, the 

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Ravens are king quarterback 
kingmakers. 

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Like obviously Joe Burrow is 
great, but he's he's exploded. 

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But weeks he played them like 
Jameez played really well 

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against them. 
What's it like? 

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The Raiders had a functional 
passing attack against them. 

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So obviously that is like a 
kingmaker spot. 

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I guess my question would be is 
how how deep is the is? 

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Is the quarterback pool in in 
the dailies this week? 

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Yeah, I actually have not been 
able to draft a single Dog Bowl 

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draft yet this week. 
I've just had a a busy week of, 

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of real life. 
So I will be putting in a lot of

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my entries in the back half of 
the week here hopefully. 

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So I I have not been able to 
dive into where he's going in 

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the daily drafts or anything 
like that yet. 

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OK, so we've got Lamar, we've 
got Jaylen Hertz, we've got Josh

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Allen, Jayden Daniels. 
I'm sorry, Jaylen Hertz is he's 

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he's on Thursday, Jayden Downs 
on Thursday. 

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So those guys, those guys come 
off the slate and you've got 

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Mahomes, CJ Stroud. 
I say CJ Stroud is off the 

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slate, Brock Purdy, Kirk 
Cousins, Jared Goff. 

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So then I guess you've got 1234 
Jordan Love 5678. 

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So in in your quarterback 8 and 
9 range, you're looking at Jared

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Goff, you're looking at bone 
Knicks, you're looking at Sam 

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Darnold. 
And I mean, like to me that 

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that's not that's certainly not 
so deep that that Russell Wilson

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is out of play. 
I I think he actually gets 

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pretty interesting. 
I think those Jared Goff against

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Jacksonville, Bodnicks against 
the Falcons, those, those, those

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are pretty interesting as well. 
And Sam Darnold against the 

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Titans. 
But I, I, I that, that strikes 

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me as kind of very playable. 
Here's a Here's a fun one. 

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Anthony Richardson against The 
Jets or Russell Wilson? 

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And probably, probably Anthony 
Richardson. 

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Interesting. 
I think I'm, I think even as 

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captain of the Russell Wilson 
hater fan club, I think I'm Russ

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there. 
And, and the reason for it is 

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the way that Russ is getting 
there is through this super high

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volatility like deep shot, 
extreme efficiency, you know, 

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and so if you're gonna play 
Russell. 

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Is that not how Anthony 
Richardson gets there? 

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I mean, yeah, but we've seen it 
from Anthony Richardson so, so 

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infrequently. 
And like with Russell Wilson, at

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least he can complete double 
digit passes like Anthony 

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Richardson is completing like 
two or three. 

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And so my, my point with Anthony
Richardson is I don't want to 

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play him with any of his 
receivers where with Russell 

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Wilson, the way that he's going 
to get there, like I, I pretty 

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much know I can play him with 
George Pickens and have that be 

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good. 
So I'd be mindful and cognizant 

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of the combinatorial ownership 
between Russ and Pickens and 

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want to make sure that that's 
not super chalky. 

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Like, for example, last week, if
you took a Jets receiver in the 

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Dog Bowl, Aaron Rodgers was 
paired so frequently with 

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Devante Adams and Garrett Wilson
that that was just a spot that I

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was avoiding almost entirely. 
Like he was, you know, more than

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twice the rate some of the other
quarterbacks, the pass catchers 

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were getting paired at their 
receivers. 

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So that was a spot that was 
pretty easy in my mind to just 

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be like, yeah, I, I don't want 
to be competing with double the 

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amount of teams if Rogers is the
guy you need compared to half 

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the amount of teams if Baker 
Mayfield is the guy you need, 

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right, So. 
I, I, I mean, I, I have to 

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imagine an extraordinarily high 
percentage of the Russell Wilson

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teams are, are Pickens teams. 
Yeah. 

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That that, that seems like an 
absolute kind of like 

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consolidation funnel. 
Typically the, the way and the, 

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and the reason you see that in 
the draft streets is because the

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quarterback is going for free, 
like going in the sixth round, 

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but they're viable. 
Just like you're saying this 

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week, Like the pool's thin 
enough that the quarterback is 

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going to get drafted most of the
time and their receiver is an, 

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an option high enough up that 
people are, are wanting to stack

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with them. 
That's like one of their better 

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stacking options rather than 
like it being the third option 

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on a team that they've drafted 
or something. 

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So I would agree with you. 
It's probably going to be 

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pretty, pretty chalky. 
So it's just something where if 

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you have a way to predict the 
combinatorial ownership, that 

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would be super helpful. 
And I I think that's something 

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that I would be paying attention
to this week. 

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I did have one last fun Russell 
Wilson stat before we move on. 

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So the only quarterbacks with a 
worse pressure to sack ratio in 

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the NFL this season with more 
than 80 drop backs. 

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This is a really fun list. 
So Jameis Winston, Spencer 

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Rattler, Will Levis, Caleb 
Williams, Tyler Huntley, Deshaun

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Watson, Joe Flacco, Gardner 
Minshew Tua and Baker Mayfield. 

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So there's 22 quarterbacks that 
are starting level quarterbacks.

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I mean, I guess if you want to 
call Caleb Williams a starting 

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level quarterback, there's 
three, but he's down there with 

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the very worst of them as far as
taking sacks when pressure. 

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So. 
Oh yeah. 

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And that's been Russell Wilson's
entire career. 

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Yeah. 
It's just, it's it. 

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We are, are, I guess, are we 
supposed going into this year 

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that he wouldn't be able to 
compensate for that as well as 

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he did earlier in his career? 
He has been able to do that thus

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far. 
And but yeah, I, I, I, I don't 

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know. 
The part I'm struggling with is 

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that it's still Russell Wilson. 
And just because we've gotten 

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gotten 2 very good games, one OK
game I like, I don't, I guess 

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when I'm when I'm get when it, 
when it's like Anthony 

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Richardson, who like has that 
rushing upside, who has that 

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same volatility versus Russell 
Wilson that, that, that I, I 

224
00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:25,800
have a little bit more trouble 
with that. 

225
00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,680
But we don't have to belabor and
that disagreement. 

226
00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:32,040
Yeah, I mean, I definitely can 
see the Anthony Richardson side 

227
00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:33,680
of it. 
I think I'm a little worried 

228
00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:38,200
about the match up against The 
Jets there, but again, it 

229
00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:40,880
probably Anthony Richardson's 
probably one of the quarterbacks

230
00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:42,480
for the match up like matters 
the least. 

231
00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:44,680
He's not going to complete 
passes on any defense. 

232
00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:47,720
It doesn't matter if they're 
super easy or super tough match 

233
00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:49,800
up. 
It's really just like, can he 

234
00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:52,320
hit one or two of the major deep
shots? 

235
00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:55,600
Right. 
And, and it's kind of like he, 

236
00:14:55,640 --> 00:15:01,320
he's had a rough year, but he's 
had some like absolute mega 

237
00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:05,920
ceiling fantasy games. 
So like just because we haven't 

238
00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:08,840
seen that lately, I, I don't 
want to discount that as like a 

239
00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:12,000
possibility. 
Yeah, Like that, that's the part

240
00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:15,120
that's that's the part that I'm 
struggling with where it's like,

241
00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:19,560
just because we haven't seen it 
lately, like you, you can't get 

242
00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:23,600
it twisted that like Anthony 
Richardson still has like mega 

243
00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:27,080
fantasy upside. 
Yeah, I mean, just getting 

244
00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:31,080
multiple rushing touchdowns in a
game can can certainly do that 

245
00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:32,440
for you. 
And like, that's always. 

246
00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:38,240
Or like if he hits 2 deep shots 
and then and and and and he has 

247
00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:42,040
two Russian touchdowns like you 
say, like that's a big week. 

248
00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:48,000
Yeah, let's move on to the next.
Really, I I wanted to highlight 

249
00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:52,280
both the quarterbacks on either 
side of this matchup, and that's

250
00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:55,480
the Joe Burrow and Justin 
Herbert matchup this week. 

251
00:15:56,360 --> 00:16:01,000
So with the Chargers, we have 
been getting this new pass happy

252
00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:04,520
version of the Chargers where 
they're actually positive PROE 

253
00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:07,960
for three weeks in a row. 
Then all of a sudden they they 

254
00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:10,160
go back to their run heavy ways 
this week. 

255
00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:16,080
Now they're against the Bengals,
who are also pretty pass happy. 

256
00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:19,600
It looks like a an interesting 
match up. 

257
00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:23,640
I mean, not not like the purest 
of spots that we've, you know, 

258
00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:27,040
seen this season, but what do 
you think of this game 

259
00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:29,600
environment? 
Are you excited about one of the

260
00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:31,240
quarterbacks, both of the 
quarterbacks? 

261
00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:36,720
Neither. 
Well, I mean, Joe Burrows always

262
00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:40,840
going to be a good play or so 
he's always like a a good 

263
00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:45,240
projection, a good projection or
he will be for most of this 

264
00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:50,480
year. 
I see T Higgins is kind of 

265
00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:53,640
limited in practice and there's 
some chance that he could play. 

266
00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:57,560
If T Higgins is playing like 
then Joe Burrow is just like 

267
00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:02,520
lights out phenomenal like that 
that that offense kind of lights

268
00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:06,480
it up. 
Obviously he's been able to be 

269
00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:08,400
pretty functional without T 
Higgins. 

270
00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:12,040
So that's not like a debt now, 
but you have to be interested in

271
00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:18,680
Joe Burrow with with Justin 
Herbert. 

272
00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:24,640
I guess the fact that the fact 
that we saw that like trend 

273
00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:28,960
broken means that you can't you 
you in the pass rate over 

274
00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:32,200
expected, you probably have to 
go back to the like the season 

275
00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:35,360
average of -5% being your 
expectation. 

276
00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:44,240
So then you've got, you've got 
this low volume expectation and 

277
00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:48,640
the requirement for the offense 
to be chasing the game or for 

278
00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:51,880
him to be ultra, ultra efficient
to get there. 

279
00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:54,920
So Justin Herbert a lot thinner,
a lot thinner. 

280
00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:58,440
I, I, it's still Justin Herbert.
I don't want to rule that out. 

281
00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:02,480
And but that is a lot thinner. 
And then we know that the the 

282
00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:05,320
Bengals have been a little bit 
of a run funnel as well. 

283
00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:10,360
Yeah, they did. 
They did actually use Justin 

284
00:18:10,360 --> 00:18:14,040
Herbert in the rushing game a 
little bit this last week. 

285
00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:16,680
Let me, I want to pull out his 
actual. 

286
00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:19,880
So yeah, he had, he had 9 
attempts for 32 yards and a 

287
00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:23,920
touchdown. 
So I think I, I joked with you 

288
00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:28,240
about, you know, they, they just
looked at Justin Herbert and 

289
00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,440
said, do you want to try just 
like being Lamar for a little 

290
00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:32,520
bit? 
How do you, how do you feel 

291
00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:34,720
about that? 
They, they did have him run a 

292
00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:37,320
lot more this game. 
He had some design stuff as 

293
00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,360
well. 
I including that carry on 4th 

294
00:18:40,360 --> 00:18:45,040
down a little little off the 
goal line, but he converted it 

295
00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:49,160
for a touchdown. 
So yeah, I mean Herbert, 

296
00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:51,560
Herbert's interesting to me. 
I think that you really want to 

297
00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:54,080
be, if you're going to be 
playing Herbert in fantasy, you 

298
00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:55,920
want it to be in a matchup where
you can be pushed. 

299
00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:58,440
I definitely think the Bengals 
can do it and they'll play fast 

300
00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:01,520
enough where this game has the 
potential to shoot out. 

301
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:04,640
I want to pull up the total for 
it. 

302
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:07,920
I was looking at it earlier. 
I think it's relatively high on 

303
00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:09,600
the week. 
It's probably like the fourth or

304
00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:10,960
third highest. 
Let's see. 

305
00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:19,600
So it is tied for the fourth 
highest or really tied for the 

306
00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:21,760
second highest. 
You got three games of the 47 

307
00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:28,320
total here, tied with the 
Seahawks and 49ers, tied with 

308
00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:33,480
the Jags and Lions. 
Yeah. 

309
00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:36,280
And so I'm interested in this 
one. 

310
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:41,040
This one seems like it could be 
one that could go over and and 

311
00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:42,840
in that case I'd be really 
interested in Herbert. 

312
00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:46,400
I do agree with you though that 
in general I'd I'd feel better 

313
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:50,080
about Burrough just right after 
the passing volume. 

314
00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:52,720
Right. 
And, and, and that that's not 

315
00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:57,760
going to be contrarian or neon, 
but the, the, the signal that 

316
00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:00,520
we've been getting in prior 
weeks of this being an offense 

317
00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:02,480
that kind of wants to open it up
more. 

318
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:06,760
We, we have to dampen that 
enthusiasm a good bit. 

319
00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:14,720
Now what like a a -, 10% PROE 
game like that that, that that's

320
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:16,720
pretty compelling. 
Yeah, yeah. 

321
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,200
OK. 
The next note that I had, this 

322
00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:26,080
isn't really one that's gonna be
applicable for this week because

323
00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:28,640
the team is on buy, but I do 
think we should talk about it 

324
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:30,200
'cause I think it's an important
development. 

325
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:35,080
So looks all the tea leaves are 
pointing to Daniel Jones being 

326
00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:39,400
benched coming out of the bye. 
Another atrocious game from him 

327
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:43,160
over in Germany looked really, 
really bad. 

328
00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:48,480
I mean it. 
Yeah, it just, it's been over 

329
00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:52,480
for a while for Daniel Jones, 
but I think it's it's officially

330
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:54,680
over now. 
What do? 

331
00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:58,640
You think about Drew. 
Locke like it Is this gonna is 

332
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:01,160
it going to change anything for 
the Giants offense or is it just

333
00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:03,000
going to be a different flavor 
of bad? 

334
00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:12,880
Well, Daniel Jones has been 
truly, truly awful and that that

335
00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:15,080
that's obviously a problem for 
everybody. 

336
00:21:16,360 --> 00:21:20,520
I think that certainly the first
couple of games with Drew Lock 

337
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:25,200
can be that that can open things
up a lot more just because you 

338
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,960
have a new guy in there. 
So like teams, they won't they 

339
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:31,320
won't know how the Giants are 
planning to attack them with 

340
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,360
Drew Lock. 
So I think you could probably 

341
00:21:34,360 --> 00:21:42,000
could see a couple of positive 
games there and like Drew Lock 

342
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:44,920
isn't isn't fantastic or 
anything like that, but they've 

343
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:46,840
got the makings of a good 
offense. 

344
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:53,520
So I think the other piece is 
that you take, you take out the 

345
00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:57,440
Daniel Jones carries from the 
offense and so that adds a 

346
00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:01,120
little bit more volume on them 
on the passing side. 

347
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:04,720
So I, I'm, I'm kind of like, I 
don't want to be overly 

348
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,760
enthusiastic, but I'm, I'm like 
cautiously enthusiastic about 

349
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:10,400
it. 
OK, that that makes sense. 

350
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:14,200
I I definitely could see the 
additional pass attempts helping

351
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,360
the offense. 
I mean, really the thing that 

352
00:22:16,360 --> 00:22:18,960
would help the offense the most 
is like, can they sustain a 

353
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:22,280
drive that would add a lot of 
pass attempts to the offense? 

354
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:26,760
So we'll we'll have to see 
coming out of the by how that 

355
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,800
looks. 
We talked about this guy last 

356
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:33,920
week and I think we're just 
going to have to talk about him 

357
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:38,560
like almost every week because 
he's going to project to be, if 

358
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:44,520
not the best, one of the best 
pure pocket passers every week. 

359
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:48,520
That's Brock Purdy. 
Currently, he's the third 

360
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:51,640
highest projected quarterback on
the slate. 

361
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:56,160
He's got a pretty good match up 
against Seattle. 

362
00:22:56,760 --> 00:23:00,080
So when you said turn highest 
projected you meant he his team.

363
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,200
He leads the team with the third
highest game total or or team 

364
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,840
total. 
No sorry, I meant looking at ETR

365
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:09,680
projections for fantasy points. 
Purdy is OK, third highest on 

366
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,480
the slate, only behind Jalen 
Hurts and Lamar. 

367
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:14,120
He is. 
He is ahead of Josh Allen. 

368
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:16,280
Wow. 
Yeah. 

369
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,920
That is kind of fascinating. 
And I, I mean, that was how I 

370
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:23,800
was, I was playing it that way 
last week as well. 

371
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:26,840
I clicked Josh Allen a couple 
times in my dog bowl stuff. 

372
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:31,560
Just he was going way too high. 
I think I clicked in maybe two 

373
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,880
or three times out of like over 
90 entries. 

374
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:36,560
So a very small amount of Josh 
Allen. 

375
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:40,920
And I was basically taking Purdy
any time that he made it to me 

376
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:45,240
in like, you know, the the late 
third round, even if I didn't 

377
00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:49,200
have a 49er already, I would 
just backstack him with Jennings

378
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:53,160
or Pearsall, which ended up 
being a pretty good way to play 

379
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,120
it. 
Unfortunately did not have any 

380
00:23:55,120 --> 00:23:58,280
of those teams paired with 
Dijon, which was what you 

381
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,680
needed. 
Either that or Jalen Hurts and 

382
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:03,600
Bijon. 
So but yeah, pretty in another 

383
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:09,240
great spot this week. 
I don't I don't see any any you 

384
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,800
know reason of poo poo the spot 
here. 

385
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:15,280
Is there anything you any reason
you could give to be off pretty 

386
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:17,120
this week or is this just 
another smashed 5? 

387
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:22,680
So I'm just trying to figure out
like I'm, I'm, I'm reading 

388
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,880
through this, why, yeah, why his
projection would be high. 

389
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,520
The first, the, the base level 
reason is that he, he does have 

390
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:35,520
one of the highest, the one 
piece of PFF that was up is 

391
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:40,800
expected points for quarterbacks
and he does have a really high 

392
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:49,680
expected points from passing. 
And, and part of I think a big 

393
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:55,440
part of that is it is not so 
much as expected yardage, it's 

394
00:24:55,440 --> 00:25:01,080
just expected touchdowns. 
So he has a, he's, he's 

395
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:07,320
averaging an expected touchdown 
of 1.9 per game and he's running

396
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:14,440
at about 1.3 per game. 
So I, I guess he, he, he, he 

397
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:18,240
has, he has some pretty good 
looks at the, at the, at the end

398
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:22,640
zone and he's running below that
expectation. 

399
00:25:23,120 --> 00:25:25,880
And so I, I guess that, that, 
that makes me think that he's 

400
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:31,840
kind of like a buy low, which 
sort of lines up with the high 

401
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:35,960
projection versus maybe not high
outcomes that we've been 

402
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:41,480
getting. 
So yeah, I, I, I that that 

403
00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:46,200
strikes me as a, as a good GPP 
play where he's getting lots of 

404
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:48,840
goal line locks. 
He hasn't been converting them 

405
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:53,320
and them. 
And there's a going to, there's 

406
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:56,640
likely going to be a game where 
he does convert and that scores 

407
00:25:56,640 --> 00:26:00,640
a lot of points. 
Yeah, the, the, the 49ers have 

408
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:04,000
kind of they've just gotten a 
little unlucky in the red zone. 

409
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:09,000
And, and I guess luck is not 
the, the perfect word for it 

410
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:12,400
because like the plays that I'm 
thinking of from this last game 

411
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:17,160
were more like unforced errors 
and not, not on Purdy's part. 

412
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:22,320
But for example, I want to say 
it was, it was Gorendo. 

413
00:26:22,360 --> 00:26:25,360
I, I can't remember which 
running back was in. 

414
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:26,880
Maybe it wasn't Gorendo, but it 
was not. 

415
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:31,600
CMC is in on pass protection, 
but he's lined up like just a 

416
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:35,400
little off the line of scrimmage
and he just flubs the pass 

417
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:40,360
protection and barely chips a 
guy and sends a free rusher to 

418
00:26:40,360 --> 00:26:43,720
Purdy on a play that otherwise 
could have been a touchdown if 

419
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:45,800
there wasn't a free rusher 
screaming down on him. 

420
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:49,280
Like they got the look that they
want, that they wanted and and 

421
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:55,600
just play ends up being blown up
and you can see the left tackle 

422
00:26:56,120 --> 00:26:59,320
just losing his shit at the 
running back for the guy just 

423
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,000
barely chips him and then 
releases out into the flat and 

424
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:05,440
lets the free rusher go. 
It's like, yeah, someone messed 

425
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:08,440
up the protection there. 
I don't know who it was, but if 

426
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:09,960
I had to guess, it would be the 
running back. 

427
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:14,640
And so there's stuff like that 
that I've seen a couple times 

428
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:18,080
from them where it's like, wow, 
if you know, this one guy hadn't

429
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:21,280
messed up this play, then all of
a sudden this is a touchdown. 

430
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,200
There is a route where Debo 
probably could have throttled 

431
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:29,200
down and then sat down in a soft
spot in the zone and had another

432
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,800
at the very least a chance to do
Debo things that, you know, it's

433
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:35,720
at the five yard line, there's 
probably 2 tackles he has to 

434
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:40,360
break or force to to miss. 
But it's like we've seen Debo do

435
00:27:40,360 --> 00:27:43,200
that, you know, So there are a 
couple spots like that. 

436
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:45,360
He he unfortunately did not 
throttle down. 

437
00:27:45,360 --> 00:27:46,840
He just kept running on his 
route. 

438
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:50,560
And so there's these 
opportunities and like you said,

439
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:51,960
they're getting these 
opportunities. 

440
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:55,280
They're in the position to score
touchdowns and they're just not 

441
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:58,560
scoring at the rate that they're
expected, even though they're 

442
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:01,480
like, he still put up a very 
respectable fantasy game this 

443
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:05,000
last week. 
So I think I'm just I'm going to

444
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:08,360
be very, very heavy on Purdy 
again this week. 

445
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:12,080
I just, I don't think the price 
is likely to be high enough 

446
00:28:13,120 --> 00:28:17,560
given his projection. 
The other thing that I really am

447
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:23,000
interested in is I would assume 
and I again, not having looked 

448
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,440
at prices, I'll, I'll actually 
pull up to ADP just so I can 

449
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:29,240
talk a little bit more educated 
here and not just, you know, off

450
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,720
the seat in my pants. 
But I'd assume Jawaan Jennings 

451
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,120
is probably going too late this 
week as well. 

452
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:38,440
He just, we'll, we'll talk about
him more later, but he really 

453
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:42,600
looks like he is just fully in 
the Brandon Iuke role and he is 

454
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,160
performing with it. 
So let's see here. 

455
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:50,120
Where is Jawan Jennings going? 
Yeah, far too late. 

456
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:52,680
Oh my gosh. 
Yeah. 

457
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:55,680
Jawan Jennings is going after 
like Calvin Ridley, Josh Downs, 

458
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:59,080
DeAndre Hopkins, going right 
before Khalil Shakur, Jamis and 

459
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:01,400
Williams, Jacoby Meyer. 
So yeah, that's that's a huge 

460
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:04,280
mistake. 
I'm actually a little sad that I

461
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,160
just mentioned this live on 
stream without having drafted 

462
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:09,000
any entries yet into the Dog 
Bowl. 

463
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:14,800
So I guess I know what I'm doing
later tonight is I'm drafting as

464
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:18,600
many Brock Purdy, Jawan Jennings
teams as I possibly can. 

465
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:22,000
Yeah, Purdy. 
Purdy's price is correcting a 

466
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,600
little bit. 
It's coming up relative to where

467
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:26,720
it was last week when I thought 
he should be a lot higher. 

468
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:31,360
So I don't think the value is so
explicit on Purdy. 

469
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:33,320
It's probably still good, but 
not great. 

470
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:37,760
I haven't run my stuff yet to 
see where I'll have him, but the

471
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:42,240
Jennings price looks very wrong,
like super duper wrong. 

472
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:48,720
So all right, the last 
quarterback I had notes on here,

473
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:52,560
OK, this is a disgusting one. 
And you can just you can just 

474
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:54,880
tell me no and we can move on if
you don't want to talk about 

475
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:59,120
this one. 
So Caleb Williams, it's been 

476
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:02,120
really bad. 
I played a decent amount of 

477
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:05,840
Caleb Williams last week 
thinking surely it's a get right

478
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:08,280
spot for them against the 
Patriots. 

479
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,320
It was not a get right spot. 
They looked atrocious. 

480
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:15,520
Patriots defense, one of the 
best plays in salary cap DFS 

481
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,840
that you could have made. 
But yeah. 

482
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:23,280
Do you think that with Waldron 
fired, do you do you wanna just 

483
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:26,400
bet on like the input volatility
spot of something changes in the

484
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:28,920
offense and the you know, you 
get yeah, I. 

485
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:33,560
I think I think it's a pretty 
solid input volatility spot and 

486
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:39,520
not just because the OC is 
fired, but also because Kel 

487
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:43,920
Williams is a rookie. 
And so him coming off some bad 

488
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:47,320
games doesn't mean that like his
career is over. 

489
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:52,080
Like, I guess it is a really, 
really bad. 

490
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:53,840
It is a really, really bad 
stretch. 

491
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:57,560
He hasn't played well. 
Some of the vibes have been bad.

492
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:01,480
Like I know that some apparent 
there was that rumor or those 

493
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:05,840
noises that some of the vets 
also asked for him to be benched

494
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:10,160
as part of the, the changes, 
which that, that, that's pretty 

495
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:14,360
bad vibes. 
However, I mean, he's, he's the 

496
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:18,120
number one overall pick. 
We've seen him play like decent 

497
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:22,080
games. 
So I, I think he's like, I think

498
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:26,880
he's fine to play and with, with
that input volatility. 

499
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:32,840
Like it is a vomit sack, but I 
mean, it's a vomit sack where 

500
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:37,080
you're playing like a number one
overall pick and then either DJ 

501
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:42,320
Moore or Romo Dunze, like Keenan
Allen like that. 

502
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:46,760
That seems pretty interesting. 
Yeah, I did. 

503
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:50,680
I did a bunch of Caleb and Cole 
combat even last week, which you

504
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:54,680
know, very ill advised, but it 
was just, it was entirely 

505
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:56,480
undrafted. 
I might have been the only 

506
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:58,480
person to do Caleb and Cole 
combat. 

507
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:01,800
I had a couple of those last 
week where I was just the only 

508
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:05,960
person with certain combos in 
the dog bowl and unfortunately 

509
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:11,480
they did not get home. 
Yeah, but maybe, maybe we can 

510
00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:12,840
run it back this week. 
Who knows? 

511
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:16,120
Those are all the quarterback 
notes that I had. 

512
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:18,160
Did you have anyone else you 
wanted to touch on or should we 

513
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:23,480
move on to running backs? 
No, no, happy to happy to move 

514
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:28,400
on here. 
Let me zoom out a little bit. 

515
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:34,400
So this is our running back 
snaps in usage and we're just 

516
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:39,840
kind of looking at who who's on 
the field for their team and 

517
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:45,520
what percentage of the total 
team plays are carries for that 

518
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:50,480
player, for routes for for that 
player. 

519
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,320
And then just so we can get the 
full picture on their snack 

520
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:55,200
count. 
We also look at pass blocking 

521
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:57,760
and run blocking, like pass 
blocking obviously a little bit 

522
00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:01,000
more important just because that
helps you paint the full picture

523
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:04,520
of like who's trusted to do the 
pass blocking. 

524
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:09,800
Like if you see, if you see one 
player on a team where he's got 

525
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,880
a bunch of pass blocking and 
then a lot of the routes and 

526
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:16,400
then another player isn't 
running as many routes, you kind

527
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,520
of know that's because the team 
with the player with the pass 

528
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:21,240
blocks, they're, they're 
trusted. 

529
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:27,480
Yeah, the I mean first. 
From Andre is probably the best 

530
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:31,080
example of that where you see 
like a lot of path blocks there.

531
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:34,520
So that's kind of why he's 
trusted on that on on those 

532
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:37,960
passing situations. 
Yeah, the the first guy that we 

533
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,760
have to mention is that 
Christian McCaffrey is already 

534
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,800
all the way back. 
You know, first, first game 

535
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,400
back. 
They did not ease him in in the 

536
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:49,040
slightest. 
He was he was in his full 

537
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:52,840
complement of snaps, doing 
everything, running all the 

538
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:56,320
routes. 
So if you have Christian 

539
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:59,120
McCaffrey and you managed, you 
know, you're still alive. 

540
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:03,840
Hopefully you can make the 
playoffs with them because looks

541
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:07,320
like he could be one of those, 
you know, low owned advance rate

542
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:12,080
type guys in the playoffs. 
You're you're just you're 

543
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:15,560
praying for health here. 
But he, he looked good to me. 

544
00:34:17,159 --> 00:34:18,800
Right. 
Yeah. 

545
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:22,080
And that that, that is the most 
notable kind of development. 

546
00:34:22,679 --> 00:34:27,159
And I mean, it's still 
interesting seeing Tuba still up

547
00:34:27,159 --> 00:34:32,400
this high and on, I mean, on 
until further notice. 

548
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:36,520
Like, I know they have, I know 
they have that rookie who, who's

549
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:39,719
coming out the ACL injury, they 
want to ease them back in, but 

550
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:44,760
they just paid Tuba and I don't 
see any sign of them taking him 

551
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:51,360
off the field. 
Like I, I, I really think that 

552
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:56,880
the the rookies going to have to
earn it and it doesn't feel like

553
00:34:57,200 --> 00:35:00,920
Chua is giving it up. 
So, so they're on the by this 

554
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:04,000
week coming back from Germany. 
But would you say that next week

555
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:07,800
if we're hearing lots of noise, 
say people are saying, oh, it's 

556
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:10,280
the Jonathan Brooks getting his 
first start. 

557
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:13,160
You know, you can't play Chuba 
this week because Jonathan 

558
00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:14,480
Brooks is going to take a bunch 
of work. 

559
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:17,400
If that's how it materializes, 
where the market kind of thinks 

560
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:21,560
that Chuba is a stay away 
because I'm assuming on, you 

561
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:24,560
know, salary cap DFS sites, 
he'll still be priced up Like 

562
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:27,200
he's getting the work. 
They typically that's how you 

563
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,320
know, algorithms work there. 
They won't just all of a sudden 

564
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:33,320
drop the guy's price because 
potentially a rookie could take 

565
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:35,440
some away. 
They're they're more in the 

566
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:38,040
business of, you know, making 
you. 

567
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:40,000
Yeah, I, I, you know, I'm 
thinking about it. 

568
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:44,880
I kind of like it a little bit 
better in in draft stuff where 

569
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:49,000
you're just getting it like you 
don't even have to pay the the 

570
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:51,280
the salary, the high salary cap 
count. 

571
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:54,920
You just get the cheap ADP. 
Yeah. 

572
00:35:55,520 --> 00:36:00,120
And and and perhaps at 
discounted ownership too, like 

573
00:36:00,240 --> 00:36:02,760
that, that that seems a little 
bit more compelling to me. 

574
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:07,400
And and the reason I say that is
just because wit Shuba and 

575
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:09,880
Winneth being the Panthers, I 
know they've been having a turn 

576
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:14,480
around story, but it it's it 
being the punters is makes it 

577
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:17,680
harder to still believe in the 
stealing kind of like story. 

578
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:24,640
Yeah, man, and in the in that 
Germany game, there is a play 

579
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:30,280
where Chuba goes down really 
awkwardly and his knee bends in 

580
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,920
a a way that was pretty scary. 
He's he's down on the ground 

581
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:36,600
like they'd stop the game. 
The trainers come out and 

582
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:39,640
everything. 
I based on the way it looked, I 

583
00:36:39,720 --> 00:36:44,080
I thought he probably tore like 
at LCL or MCL or something. 

584
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:48,160
Turns out that I I believe that 
you you were the one that told 

585
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:50,480
me he just dislocated his 
kneecap. 

586
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:53,560
Is that right? 
He's like he said, Oh yeah, I 

587
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:57,000
dislocated my kneecap. 
And, and, but I, I remember 

588
00:36:57,000 --> 00:37:00,800
somebody saying like you can't 
actually dislocate your kneecap.

589
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:06,400
Like it's more likely that he's,
he dislocated as like I think 

590
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:08,680
it's called battelle tendon or 
something like that. 

591
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:12,320
But like, yeah, he dislocated 
something and that's why that 

592
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,400
weird movement happened. 
And it's like it, that can be 

593
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:17,920
fine for it to kind of like come
back and play on. 

594
00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:21,920
Yeah, he So he goes down. 
I'm thinking like, Oh my gosh, 

595
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:24,400
Tuba's dead. 
Like Jonathan Brooks is gonna 

596
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:27,640
come in and be the, you know, 
playoff hammer here. 

597
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:31,840
And then the next series happens
and Tuba is on the field. 

598
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:35,800
What is going on? 
That was it was the wildest 

599
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:38,960
ride. 
But yeah, I think that's good 

600
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:42,600
analysis on Chuba that if the 
market's going to overreact to 

601
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:46,800
Brooks being active, you might 
be able to exploit that man. 

602
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:52,040
The other guy with, I mean, not 
just like an elite workload, but

603
00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:57,200
like absolute bell cow in a way 
that we just don't see anymore 

604
00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:03,040
is Chase Brown. 
I mean, he got 100% of the 

605
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:05,360
running back carries in the last
game. 

606
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:10,040
Now, granted, that's because the
attempt that they tried to give 

607
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:13,440
to Khalil Herbert did not 
technically count as a carry 

608
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:15,760
because he never got possession 
of the ball. 

609
00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:20,520
It's just a fumble. 
But still, Chase Brown with just

610
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:25,960
an absurd workload, he's, I 
believe, got 10 high value 

611
00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:31,360
touches again this last week. 
So like, not only is he getting 

612
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:34,240
a ton of carries, he's getting 
targets, he's getting the goal 

613
00:38:34,240 --> 00:38:36,760
line work. 
The offense is good. 

614
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:43,440
Like this is the nut nut run out
for Chase Brown and he he seems 

615
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:46,440
to be converting on the 
opportunity. 

616
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:53,360
So, so last two weeks, 84% of 
the of the snaps of those 75% 

617
00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:56,760
finds it useful. 
So not only does he have a great

618
00:38:56,760 --> 00:39:01,480
snap rate in in this particular 
outcome, them not wanting him to

619
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:05,360
block it all is also is also 
helpful. 

620
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:10,160
You, that's the secret, Draco. 
You need to stink at pass 

621
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:14,640
blocking enough, but also be 
good with the ball in your hands

622
00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:16,040
so the team's like you know? 
What? 

623
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:19,640
And then you need your your your
pass blocking teammate to have a

624
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:22,520
season ending Necker injury. 
Yes, yes, yes. 

625
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:25,640
But yeah, Chase Brown clearly 
had that all figured out. 

626
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:29,720
I mean, tell me a story here, 
Draco. 

627
00:39:29,720 --> 00:39:32,440
Is Chase Brown going to save my 
best ball season? 

628
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:36,000
Is my best ball portfolio 
potentially saved because of 

629
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:39,480
Chase Brown? 
He is going to do his very best.

630
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:42,400
I don't know how. 
It's very hard to get a team 

631
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:47,280
from 12th place up to 2nd place,
but he's going to do his 

632
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:50,120
direness and get it there. 
We'll, we'll see how many of 

633
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:53,680
these 12th place atrocities 
Chase Brown can rescue from the 

634
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:55,480
wreckage of my best ball 
portfolio. 

635
00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:59,760
OK, another guy that I think we 
have to talk about is Aaron 

636
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:03,280
Jones. 
So Aaron Jones, one of my 

637
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:06,400
highest own running backs in 
week 10, getting a monster 

638
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:09,800
workload, then gets injured. 
When he went down, it looked 

639
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:12,960
like a hip to me, but they 
reported it as a chest injury. 

640
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:16,640
So I'm wondering if maybe he 
just like got some rib bruising 

641
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:17,880
or something. 
I'm not, I'm not sure what it 

642
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:20,760
was because he did ultimately 
come back into the game. 

643
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:23,840
So that's that's the spot to 
monitor. 

644
00:40:23,840 --> 00:40:25,880
I haven't seen anything on it 
this week. 

645
00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:31,640
When he went out, it was pretty 
heavily acres. 

646
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:34,400
Ty Chandler. 
I mean, we, we talked about Ty 

647
00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:37,160
Chandler being dead. 
He's definitely dead. 

648
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:42,880
But what do you think about 
acres as like a potential stash 

649
00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:45,280
right now? 
Like is he even going to be he's

650
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:48,360
he doesn't look great. 
Is he worth anything if Aaron 

651
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:52,400
Jones goes down or is this just 
a not a valuable backfield if 

652
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:59,200
Jones is out? 
So I guess he had 13 rush 

653
00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:03,680
attempts, 9 routes and two pass 
blocks. 

654
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:12,240
And then we don't we actually we
can't tell why his what is 

655
00:41:12,240 --> 00:41:16,280
expected points where which fuck
absolutely stinks. 

656
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:25,080
And let me let me see if, if 
Rodov is, if they're it all 

657
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:29,760
comes back full circle. 
If their stuff is up for week 

658
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:34,880
10, like that'll that, that'll 
give us a good kind of like 

659
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:38,960
guide as to there we go total 
EP. 

660
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:45,400
So he had 13 1/2 expected points
and, and week 10 on, on a 

661
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:52,560
roughly 50% snack rate, not on 
field, no, he, he had a, on a, 

662
00:41:52,560 --> 00:42:00,560
on a 24% snap rate in week 10. 
And then what did he, I, I, I 

663
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:06,600
doubt he actually scored that. 
So he, he was -1.4 on, on expect

664
00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:09,040
on FPOE. 
So he scored 12 points. 

665
00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:16,480
So that kind of consolidation is
kind of on the wait, wait, wait,

666
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:19,400
no, that's, that's goddammit, 
that's Aaron Jones. 

667
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:31,080
And I'm sorry, I'm sorry. 
And so Palm Acres was 8.2 and 

668
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:36,920
then -2.5. 
So he, he scored 5.7. 

669
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:44,920
So that's probably wordy of like
kind of like a spot start where 

670
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:48,480
you're, you're going to project 
for 15 points and then score 12 

671
00:42:50,120 --> 00:42:54,920
or 11:50. 
So I, I, I, I think that's, 

672
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:58,840
that's like a wordy spot start 
where you have injuries and you 

673
00:42:58,840 --> 00:43:00,560
can just plug a guy in there. 
I think. 

674
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:03,720
I think that's what he is in the
case of an Iron Jones injury. 

675
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:07,320
Yeah, I agree. 
He doesn't have like the league 

676
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:10,760
winning upside the ceiling for 
him there just because we we 

677
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:15,440
know enough about what Cam Akers
is as a player like that outcome

678
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:19,520
doesn't exist. 
So he's not not as exciting for,

679
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:22,040
you know, if you've got a A-Team
that's already pretty strong and

680
00:43:22,040 --> 00:43:24,240
you're just hoping for something
to supercharge it if something 

681
00:43:24,240 --> 00:43:26,920
breaks your way. 
He's not that kind of handcuff, 

682
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:31,640
but a guy that that does have 
that potential. 

683
00:43:31,640 --> 00:43:38,760
I would say, you know #1 because
he's rookie and #2 because the 

684
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:42,360
offense could get something 
going here down the back half. 

685
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:45,760
Is Audrey Estimate. 
He's not on our chart yet, but I

686
00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:48,640
think we have to talk about him.
And the reason he's not on the 

687
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:52,000
chart is we're using a rolling 
four week sample here. 

688
00:43:52,800 --> 00:43:55,480
And so he just doesn't have 
enough snaps over that four week

689
00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:59,920
sample to show up on either of 
our charts yet if he continues 

690
00:43:59,920 --> 00:44:02,920
to get the opportunity that he 
got this last week though. 

691
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:06,920
He'll be on the backup chart. 
Yeah, he'll, he'll certainly 

692
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:09,000
show up. 
I mean, eventually he'll he'll 

693
00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:11,560
make his way to the starter 
chart after four weeks of of 

694
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:15,280
what he got this last week. 
So he got, I'm, I'm, I'm 

695
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:19,960
calculating that in week 10, he 
had 38% useful snap rate, which 

696
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:23,720
is just below, that's just below
the, the threshold for a starter

697
00:44:23,720 --> 00:44:28,240
chart. 
So he, he did dominate the 

698
00:44:28,240 --> 00:44:31,640
carry. 
So he had let me, let me, he had

699
00:44:32,040 --> 00:44:37,000
14 carries and that that's of 17
total for running backs. 

700
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:44,040
He, he got, he got 7 routes of 
18 for running backs. 

701
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:49,320
I guess the one the one thing 
that keeps Javante, maybe keeps 

702
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:54,000
Javante as a blocker literally 
is that he still had all the 

703
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:58,160
pass blocking snaps so he's 
still there clear and obvious 

704
00:44:58,160 --> 00:45:02,480
passing down situation back. 
Where's Andre Guestimate. 

705
00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:07,640
I think he he's the starter and 
on the 1st 2 downs and and non 

706
00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:11,720
obvious passing situations. 
Yeah, I I agree with you there. 

707
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:15,520
I mean, as a quick summary for 
this backfield, it's completely 

708
00:45:15,520 --> 00:45:19,880
over for Jovante. 
It looks like Julie McLaughlin 

709
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:23,000
is never going to really have 
the the best. 

710
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:26,160
Thing He's completely squeezed. 
Yeah, what you're the the best 

711
00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:29,760
thing you're hoping for from 
Julie McLaughlin is like that 

712
00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:33,760
Justice Hill week 17 from last 
season type outcome for him 

713
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:38,400
where he randomly gets a 
touchdown and he breaks a long 

714
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:41,600
play, you know, like that's 
that's really on very limited 

715
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:44,560
usage. 
So the Julie McLaughlin stuff is

716
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:50,400
just is not ever gonna happen. 
But Audric Estimate could keep 

717
00:45:50,400 --> 00:45:56,800
consolidating this work. 
And if he's good, then he has 

718
00:45:56,800 --> 00:45:58,720
some pretty, pretty strong 
upside. 

719
00:45:58,720 --> 00:46:03,480
I mean, Jovante's role now a big
part of Jovante's role that was 

720
00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:07,600
contributing a lot of the value 
to it was the passing game part 

721
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:11,840
of the role, which does not seem
to be likely to be a part of 

722
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:15,040
Estimate. 
Yeah, that's that's a tough part

723
00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:18,560
for him. 
You're there's a chance he's 

724
00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:20,880
he's a younger player, younger 
rookie. 

725
00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:24,960
So there's a chance that he's 
able to develop that part of his

726
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:26,800
game. 
And you know, what he did in 

727
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:31,000
college is not wholly indicative
of like his final capabilities 

728
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:34,880
as a player. 
But based on what we saw last 

729
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:38,920
game, it does seem like, you 
know, he's got an uphill battle 

730
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:41,280
to be able to win that portion 
of the work. 

731
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:46,280
If he can, that's a pretty huge 
win for him, but even as like A2

732
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:52,800
down grinder he's interesting 
and you have those thin paths to

733
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:59,680
league. 
Winner and so he has three pass 

734
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:07,160
blocking snaps, and he has a 
grade of 75.4 on those 3 pass 

735
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:10,240
blocking snaps. 
He's not allowed a single 

736
00:47:10,240 --> 00:47:12,840
pressure on those 3 pass 
blocking snaps. 

737
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:20,520
However none of those have been 
on water and TFF deems a true 

738
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:29,520
pass pro set and where's I guess
I I got amount of Jovante's. 

739
00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:34,880
So Jovante's grade is 59.3. 
So I I actually don't think it's

740
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:36,960
that he's such an amazing pass 
blocker. 

741
00:47:37,560 --> 00:47:42,160
He just kind of trusted where's 
they they they haven't actually 

742
00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:44,680
they haven't been willing to 
trust SMA there. 

743
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:50,680
So that am that that that part 
is tricky. 

744
00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:55,640
Like I, I don't, I, I actually, 
I, I have a little bit of 

745
00:47:55,640 --> 00:47:59,880
discomfort kind of projecting 
that am, he's going to develop 

746
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:08,760
by the end of the season. 
But I think he, he's a 

747
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:12,880
worthwhile waiver pick up. 
But you, you look at things and,

748
00:48:12,880 --> 00:48:15,320
and, and again, I'm referring to
Relevis here. 

749
00:48:15,560 --> 00:48:20,440
It's 7.1 expected points last 
week on, on his kind of like 

750
00:48:20,840 --> 00:48:25,080
best of the season so far. 
Roll a 14 of 17 carries. 

751
00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:28,320
I, I, I think what you're 
looking at, you're needing, 

752
00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:30,200
you're looking at somebody who 
needs to get into the end zone 

753
00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:34,080
to score points here. 
Yeah, I I agree with that 

754
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:37,600
assessment. 
So yeah, thin, thin path to like

755
00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:39,920
get to the league winner 
outcome. 

756
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:43,280
I mean, basically we're gonna 
hit a parlay of the Broncos, get

757
00:48:43,280 --> 00:48:45,920
better and have more 
opportunities to score 

758
00:48:45,920 --> 00:48:50,040
touchdowns. 
And also he's able to take away 

759
00:48:50,040 --> 00:48:54,200
a little bit of that or earn 
some of the passing back role, 

760
00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:57,360
which I think is pretty thin. 
I don't, I just don't think it's

761
00:48:57,360 --> 00:49:00,520
impossible because again, with 
with a rookie, you just know so 

762
00:49:00,520 --> 00:49:03,280
little. 
So I think that's where get into

763
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:06,200
trouble saying like, oh, that 
can't happen. 

764
00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:09,880
So it's thin. 
But that's the reason why we 

765
00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:13,520
like rookies because hey, 
there's a there's an unlikely 

766
00:49:13,520 --> 00:49:15,400
outcome. 
But if it does happen, like 

767
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:18,360
that's pretty good for a guy 
who'd get off waivers in Week 

768
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:21,880
10, so. 
I'm putting in waiver bids. 

769
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:24,320
I'm putting in decent waiver 
bids. 

770
00:49:24,760 --> 00:49:29,200
Yeah, All right. 
The last guy, last running back 

771
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:31,720
I had a note on is on the 
backups chart. 

772
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:36,080
And this is not a guy that I 
have been particularly high on 

773
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:40,960
this season due to him coming 
off a pretty brutal injury. 

774
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:46,480
But the stars are starting to 
align for Nick Chubb in that he 

775
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:50,480
is no longer shackled to the 
worst quarterback that we've 

776
00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:53,680
seen play in the NFL in the past
two decades. 

777
00:49:56,160 --> 00:50:00,520
The the Browns still look like 
they want to give him the work 

778
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:03,760
like he is Jerome Ford. 
Look at look at the Jerome Ford 

779
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:07,200
rush attempts on this chart. 
Jerome Ford's bar is almost 

780
00:50:07,200 --> 00:50:12,800
entirely routes and blocking. 
And then then you have Nick 

781
00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:16,360
Chubb, who is actually getting 
some rush attempts. 

782
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:19,760
He is he is getting the majority
of the rush attempts for the 

783
00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:25,480
team now when when the game got 
out of hand in their last game, 

784
00:50:25,520 --> 00:50:29,400
he he was just like not on the 
field very much because he's not

785
00:50:29,600 --> 00:50:35,600
not doing passing down stuff. 
But you do have a spot against 

786
00:50:35,600 --> 00:50:41,240
the Saints, who I mean, we just 
saw Bijon run roughshod all over

787
00:50:41,240 --> 00:50:45,000
them. 
Like what do you think about 

788
00:50:45,880 --> 00:50:48,920
Nick Chubb this week in a pretty
favorable match up? 

789
00:50:49,800 --> 00:50:51,680
Yeah, I, I that has to be 
interesting. 

790
00:50:52,240 --> 00:50:59,640
Has to be interesting because 
he, he's already and he's so in,

791
00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:03,160
in, in week 9. 
So they, they didn't play last 

792
00:51:03,160 --> 00:51:07,800
week because of the BI. 
And in week 9 he was at 34% of 

793
00:51:08,680 --> 00:51:11,760
honestly, yeah, yeah, only only 
34% of snaps. 

794
00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:15,680
But when he's when he was on the
field, it was to give him the 

795
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:19,480
ball. 
So very high amount of rush 

796
00:51:19,480 --> 00:51:26,000
attempts, very high amount of 
them or say so he had 11% rats. 

797
00:51:26,320 --> 00:51:33,720
So I, I guess he he's dominating
the carries and, and, and in an 

798
00:51:33,760 --> 00:51:38,640
in a matchup where you you might
think that the Browns will lean 

799
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:41,440
on that run game, that could be 
pretty interesting. 

800
00:51:42,800 --> 00:51:48,760
And I mean, I have to, I have to
think that they, they try and as

801
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:52,040
they ramp them back up, like 
we're pretty early in the ramp 

802
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:54,720
up stage that they do start to 
give them more routes because 

803
00:51:54,720 --> 00:51:56,200
they're trusting in the pass 
block. 

804
00:51:56,560 --> 00:51:58,520
Like it's not like they don't 
trust Nick Chubb, the pass 

805
00:51:58,520 --> 00:51:59,640
block. 
They're just trying to manage 

806
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:03,560
his workload. 
But as as they two weeks on now,

807
00:52:04,240 --> 00:52:09,240
as they as they ease him back 
in, I could see him getting a 

808
00:52:09,240 --> 00:52:13,840
lot more routes. 
And so I guess you're probably 

809
00:52:13,840 --> 00:52:17,680
looking at a sealing case here 
of like 50% snap rate. 

810
00:52:18,200 --> 00:52:22,920
But then that being dominated by
Carries and and and him having 

811
00:52:22,920 --> 00:52:28,560
those vintage Nick Trop moments 
which it it doesn't seem like 

812
00:52:28,560 --> 00:52:30,880
the most likely outcome, but 
certainly seems possible. 

813
00:52:32,360 --> 00:52:35,600
Yeah, I'm going to. 
I'm going to pull up his ADP on 

814
00:52:35,640 --> 00:52:37,280
Underdog. 
I just looked at his drafting 

815
00:52:37,280 --> 00:52:41,040
salary is 6000. 
So it's just like it's still 

816
00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:43,800
it's probably too much on a 
platform where you really need 

817
00:52:43,800 --> 00:52:47,520
to have some some passing 
component to your game. 

818
00:52:49,000 --> 00:52:54,240
You know, just he he's not not 
gonna get mini if any reception.

819
00:52:54,240 --> 00:52:59,360
So but yeah, he goes he goes in 
a reasonable spot. 

820
00:52:59,360 --> 00:53:03,560
Actually, it looks like going 
right before Romandre and 

821
00:53:03,560 --> 00:53:07,880
DeAndre Swift and Naji. 
Yeah, I think I Pollard. 

822
00:53:09,160 --> 00:53:11,240
It's hard to take him over 
Ramandre, isn't it? 

823
00:53:11,840 --> 00:53:16,640
Yeah, I think that's close. 
You probably just take Ramandre 

824
00:53:16,640 --> 00:53:21,000
there against the Rams. 
That's that's probably the 

825
00:53:21,200 --> 00:53:25,520
that's the one I would flip 
maybe maybe Swift or what do you

826
00:53:25,520 --> 00:53:31,080
think about Swift, Swift? 
For Chubb, that feels a lot 

827
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:37,280
closer. 
That feels a lot closer where it

828
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:40,640
it's probably like similar bets 
where you you need them to break

829
00:53:40,640 --> 00:53:45,640
off a long run like a long 
touchdown probably helps. 

830
00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:48,400
It helps Swift that he's not 
coming off a major knee injury. 

831
00:53:48,400 --> 00:53:51,800
It helps job that he's not the 
under Swift that. 

832
00:53:53,080 --> 00:53:55,480
Was so good I was just about to 
say that if he didn't. 

833
00:53:56,440 --> 00:53:59,720
So I was, I actually, I said the
first thing to set up the second

834
00:53:59,720 --> 00:54:00,480
thing. 
It was. 

835
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:04,600
It was beautiful textbook chef's
kiss no notes. 

836
00:54:05,560 --> 00:54:07,960
All right on that note, let's 
get to the tight end charts. 

837
00:54:07,960 --> 00:54:09,760
That was the last running back I
had notes on. 

838
00:54:13,280 --> 00:54:17,480
So for the tight end chart, I 
mean, I feel like there's so 

839
00:54:17,480 --> 00:54:22,160
many guys with really good 
targets per route run right now,

840
00:54:22,160 --> 00:54:24,560
which is kind of crazy for for 
tight end. 

841
00:54:26,320 --> 00:54:31,280
I mean, some of these are really
just like we can kind of breeze 

842
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:34,640
through these notes pretty quick
because like Kate on like what? 

843
00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:36,480
What new thing am I going to 
tell you about Kate on? 

844
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:39,080
Like he still it continues to be
a smash. 

845
00:54:39,080 --> 00:54:41,840
Like he's getting I. 
I guess the the thing we look at

846
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:45,640
for there is is Mike Evans 
return and and, and how this 

847
00:54:45,640 --> 00:54:50,360
looks as Mike Evans returns. 
Like I, I think he still has to 

848
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:54,640
be important because obviously 
every play can't just be in Mike

849
00:54:54,640 --> 00:54:58,320
Evans target. 
But I do wonder if he he 

850
00:54:58,320 --> 00:55:03,120
continues to like dominate 
targets here as as Mike Evans 

851
00:55:03,120 --> 00:55:06,720
comes back. 
Yeah, I, I would, I would think 

852
00:55:06,960 --> 00:55:11,800
it's probably, I mean, not I'm 
pretty confident it's a huge 

853
00:55:11,800 --> 00:55:14,200
upgrade for the offense to get 
Mike Evans back. 

854
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:17,880
And we saw the Bucks. 
The Bucks were a great offense 

855
00:55:17,880 --> 00:55:20,840
with Evans and Godwin like they 
were they were hanging some 

856
00:55:20,840 --> 00:55:23,360
points at Baker Mayfield, you 
know, was the quarterback to on 

857
00:55:23,360 --> 00:55:27,560
the season. 
So I think when you get Mike 

858
00:55:27,560 --> 00:55:31,400
Evans back, it might be one of 
those things where, yes, Otten 

859
00:55:31,640 --> 00:55:35,920
sees a a small reduction in his 
target rate, but the offense is 

860
00:55:35,920 --> 00:55:38,520
getting more scoring 
opportunities and they're able 

861
00:55:38,520 --> 00:55:42,040
to stay more drives. 
And so it's it's still probably 

862
00:55:43,240 --> 00:55:46,160
I don't even really want to call
it like a a negative for Otten. 

863
00:55:46,160 --> 00:55:49,560
It's probably just like a net 
net neutral if anything really 

864
00:55:49,560 --> 00:55:54,160
the like losing Godwin who is 
more that possession receiver 

865
00:55:54,160 --> 00:55:57,360
operating out of the slot. 
Like I think Auden has assumed a

866
00:55:57,360 --> 00:56:00,640
lot of that work and right now 
they're just like they don't 

867
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:03,560
have any Mike Evans. 
There is no Mike Evans work or 

868
00:56:03,560 --> 00:56:07,080
role in the offense. 
That's just all going through 

869
00:56:07,080 --> 00:56:09,480
the running backs right now 
like, well, we need to do 

870
00:56:09,480 --> 00:56:12,760
something to move the ball. 
So I guess the running backs are

871
00:56:12,760 --> 00:56:14,800
going to be a really, really 
large part of the offense. 

872
00:56:15,120 --> 00:56:16,280
I would. 
Assume you don't think the 

873
00:56:16,280 --> 00:56:20,920
running backs will retain ball 
control type, ass chain control 

874
00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:24,080
type of targets. 
I think they will still have a 

875
00:56:24,080 --> 00:56:28,560
good amount of work, but I think
if you had to ask me where the 

876
00:56:28,560 --> 00:56:32,040
targets for Mike Evans come 
from, like they certainly come 

877
00:56:32,040 --> 00:56:34,840
from Sterling Shepherd, you 
know, like those those are gone.

878
00:56:34,840 --> 00:56:37,200
Sterling Shepherd does not 
maintain his targets there. 

879
00:56:38,040 --> 00:56:40,680
You probably get to take a 
little bit away from Kate Auten 

880
00:56:40,960 --> 00:56:43,160
and I think you take a little 
bit away from the running backs 

881
00:56:43,160 --> 00:56:46,000
as well. 
So the the big picture point 

882
00:56:46,000 --> 00:56:48,600
that I want to make is I don't 
think it hurts Kate Auten too 

883
00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:50,680
bad. 
I think he's still a really, 

884
00:56:50,680 --> 00:56:52,880
really strong tight end rest of 
the season like. 

885
00:56:53,160 --> 00:56:58,080
He probably is a strong tight 
end rest of the season, but is 

886
00:56:58,080 --> 00:57:01,400
he able to maintain like a 26% 
targets per out run? 

887
00:57:01,400 --> 00:57:04,960
Like that's a really, really 
strong targets per out run. 

888
00:57:05,320 --> 00:57:10,680
Like that's higher than for 
example, I'm pretty sure over 

889
00:57:10,680 --> 00:57:15,000
the last two weeks, whereas 
Brock Barris that that's higher 

890
00:57:15,000 --> 00:57:18,440
than Brock Barris on the full 
season, who's at 25%. 

891
00:57:19,600 --> 00:57:22,560
Yeah, I I would, I wouldn't 
expect him to maintain that, but

892
00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:25,200
like he could probably maintain 
a 20. 

893
00:57:26,000 --> 00:57:29,400
Yeah, 2022%. 
Right. 

894
00:57:29,400 --> 00:57:33,000
I, I, I, I think that's right. 
I think that's right. 

895
00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:37,680
And I, I think it's probably 
closer to a small negative than 

896
00:57:37,680 --> 00:57:40,560
them than anything else. 
I, I still think that is a 

897
00:57:40,560 --> 00:57:47,640
negative, but maybe, maybe, 
maybe it's true that Otten is 

898
00:57:47,640 --> 00:57:53,040
just so good that even with like
a, a player with the caliber of 

899
00:57:53,040 --> 00:57:55,920
Mike Evans there, that, that, 
that he doesn't suffer from 

900
00:57:55,920 --> 00:57:59,960
that. 
Yeah, it it'll be interesting to

901
00:57:59,960 --> 00:58:02,200
watch certainly. 
But yeah, I, I agree with you 

902
00:58:02,200 --> 00:58:05,280
that it's, it's probably 
somewhere between small net 

903
00:58:05,280 --> 00:58:07,920
negative to neutral for Kate 
Onton. 

904
00:58:08,280 --> 00:58:11,720
And I mean, even even if you do 
apply a small net negative to 

905
00:58:11,720 --> 00:58:16,000
him, he's still very, very 
safely a tided 1, you know, like

906
00:58:16,520 --> 00:58:19,720
that's I don't think. 
That a did you say a tight end 

907
00:58:19,720 --> 00:58:22,160
one or? 
D tight end 1A Tight end one 

908
00:58:22,160 --> 00:58:23,480
not. 
Oh yeah, for sure. 

909
00:58:23,680 --> 00:58:26,520
I was like, I was like, he's 
safely the tight end one. 

910
00:58:26,520 --> 00:58:29,320
I'm like, wow, no. 
No, we're not. 

911
00:58:29,320 --> 00:58:31,160
We're not that bullish on K dot 
here. 

912
00:58:33,280 --> 00:58:36,160
I'm interested to see where he's
going to go in basketball drafts

913
00:58:36,160 --> 00:58:38,000
next season, though, because I 
do think that. 

914
00:58:39,400 --> 00:58:42,600
I mean, yes, prior to the Godwin
injury, like you obviously 

915
00:58:42,600 --> 00:58:47,960
weren't getting this, but I you 
know that the toothpaste can't 

916
00:58:47,960 --> 00:58:51,760
go back in the tube on this now,
like you've seen that he is, you

917
00:58:51,760 --> 00:58:54,400
know, this guy's competent. 
If you're going to if you're 

918
00:58:54,400 --> 00:58:58,320
going to feature him in the 
offense, like he can be a valid 

919
00:58:58,400 --> 00:59:00,080
pass catching option in your 
offense. 

920
00:59:00,080 --> 00:59:03,400
He doesn't just have to be like 
a snap eater like he previously 

921
00:59:03,400 --> 00:59:04,920
was. 
And he's a young enough player 

922
00:59:04,920 --> 00:59:08,400
that I I don't think it's 
ridiculous to think that this 

923
00:59:08,400 --> 00:59:11,680
could be a bit of a breakout for
him and and lead to more 

924
00:59:11,680 --> 00:59:16,840
opportunity in his career. 
But the next tight end I had a 

925
00:59:16,840 --> 00:59:22,920
note on was Mark Andrews, who's 
had quite the interesting season

926
00:59:22,920 --> 00:59:26,240
so far. 
I mean, if, if we go back to 

927
00:59:26,240 --> 00:59:29,880
like week two, week 3, Mark 
Andrews was 6 feet under. 

928
00:59:29,880 --> 00:59:34,240
We're we're throwing dirt on the
coffin, you know, and over these

929
00:59:34,240 --> 00:59:36,960
last few weeks, he's definitely 
been back. 

930
00:59:36,960 --> 00:59:41,640
His snaps are trending up now. 2
two weeks ago he had the highest

931
00:59:41,640 --> 00:59:44,920
snapshare that he'd had all 
season last week. 

932
00:59:44,920 --> 00:59:51,120
He gets the Isaiah likely injury
to kind of keep buoying his snap

933
00:59:51,120 --> 00:59:56,840
rate. 
So I'm, I'm a little cautious to

934
00:59:56,840 --> 00:59:59,040
just say like, Oh yeah, the 
trend's going to continue. 

935
00:59:59,040 --> 01:00:03,040
It's going to keep ascending and
get, you know, approach this old

936
01:00:03,080 --> 01:00:07,720
Mark Andrews type, role and and 
workload that we're used to. 

937
01:00:08,280 --> 01:00:11,040
So I'm like, I'm a little 
cautious of that, but what do 

938
01:00:11,040 --> 01:00:13,040
you how do you parse this? 
Do you think he's still 

939
01:00:13,040 --> 01:00:15,000
ascending? 
Do you think he'll he'll come 

940
01:00:15,000 --> 01:00:16,920
back to Earth a little bit with 
likely healthy? 

941
01:00:17,720 --> 01:00:21,000
I'm still, I'm still stuck on on
K dot and I'm sorry. 

942
01:00:21,440 --> 01:00:26,720
I, I, I do want to make the 
point that his, his highest 

943
01:00:26,880 --> 01:00:32,280
yards per out run on the season 
is 2.3, which is, is, is 

944
01:00:32,280 --> 01:00:34,640
certainly not bad that, that is 
not terrible. 

945
01:00:35,960 --> 01:00:39,720
But his average, if I just take 
the average across every game, 

946
01:00:39,720 --> 01:00:41,960
it's like 1.3. 
If I take the average over the 

947
01:00:41,960 --> 01:00:48,680
last four games, it's 1.9. 
And in the last game, week 10, 

948
01:00:48,840 --> 01:00:54,960
he was at 1.1. 
So I, I, I, I still may not I, I

949
01:00:54,960 --> 01:00:57,800
don't think I'm in the camp that
like K Don is just good. 

950
01:00:58,240 --> 01:01:02,520
I think, I, I think you can 
persuade me that he's a young 

951
01:01:02,520 --> 01:01:05,480
player and he's shown us more 
than we thought he was capable 

952
01:01:05,480 --> 01:01:06,840
of. 
So we need to keep an eye on 

953
01:01:06,840 --> 01:01:09,760
that. 
And but I, I I I needed to say 

954
01:01:09,760 --> 01:01:12,240
that because. 
I think I think that's good 

955
01:01:12,320 --> 01:01:14,960
analysis. 
Could I could I sell you on 

956
01:01:14,960 --> 01:01:19,160
that? 
He is of the Jake Ferguson ilk, 

957
01:01:19,320 --> 01:01:23,560
you know, like, yeah, the 
competent like if if getting 

958
01:01:23,560 --> 01:01:27,360
targets in the offense. 
I mean, Ferguson this season has

959
01:01:27,360 --> 01:01:30,560
been pretty disappointing, more 
so as a function of the Cowboys 

960
01:01:30,560 --> 01:01:35,760
just staking out loud. 
But yeah, I I think, you know, 

961
01:01:35,760 --> 01:01:41,200
seeing Autumn kind of in the 
same mold as as Ferguson kind of

962
01:01:41,480 --> 01:01:44,360
makes sense to me there. 
But But yeah. 

963
01:01:44,840 --> 01:01:48,920
But on to Mark Andrews, which 
you wanted to keep the a good 

964
01:01:48,920 --> 01:01:51,880
pace in the show and I I rudely,
rudely interrupted. 

965
01:01:53,040 --> 01:01:59,080
So I think that I mean, it's a 
good thing that he had a 94% 

966
01:01:59,080 --> 01:02:03,160
route rate in week in week 10. 
Like that's the highest he's had

967
01:02:03,160 --> 01:02:07,960
all year. 
It does seem likely that it's 

968
01:02:07,960 --> 01:02:13,800
because of the likely injury. 
It is also helpful that on that 

969
01:02:13,960 --> 01:02:18,520
high route rate, he also had a 
21% targets per run. 

970
01:02:18,880 --> 01:02:22,480
He also had two yards per route 
per route to run. 

971
01:02:23,320 --> 01:02:27,480
And like that all seems like 
competent acceptable. 

972
01:02:29,360 --> 01:02:35,880
I do think, though, that like 
the idea of like this being the 

973
01:02:35,880 --> 01:02:39,280
America Andrews, like it used 
this often used to be the Mark 

974
01:02:39,280 --> 01:02:44,160
Andrews show and like that was 
in in this beautiful fact. 

975
01:02:44,560 --> 01:02:47,280
And it's just it's not it's not 
the case anymore. 

976
01:02:48,520 --> 01:02:55,040
But I think that it's such a 
high octane passing attack that 

977
01:02:55,040 --> 01:02:59,680
him being just fine can lead to 
good results. 

978
01:02:59,800 --> 01:03:02,960
Like I think he's pretty 
startable, especially in in in 

979
01:03:02,960 --> 01:03:06,800
FFPC, which as people know is 
tight end premium. 

980
01:03:07,800 --> 01:03:13,120
But there's nothing here that's 
getting me like, overly excited.

981
01:03:14,160 --> 01:03:16,200
Yeah, I'm, I'm in the same camp 
as you. 

982
01:03:16,240 --> 01:03:19,480
I'm like, I'm approaching 
cautiously optimistic with Mark 

983
01:03:19,480 --> 01:03:23,160
Andrews where before I was, I 
was like, you know, abandoned 

984
01:03:23,160 --> 01:03:25,360
all of you. 
You have Mark Andrews on your 

985
01:03:25,360 --> 01:03:29,560
roster, right? 
But, and I guess the other thing

986
01:03:29,560 --> 01:03:34,000
about his high route rate last 
week was just it was a shootout,

987
01:03:34,560 --> 01:03:36,160
right? 
And and and that's Mark Andrews 

988
01:03:36,160 --> 01:03:37,920
kind of music. 
Like you're not, you're not 

989
01:03:37,920 --> 01:03:40,480
going to put in the blockers 
there, the run blockers. 

990
01:03:40,480 --> 01:03:42,640
You're you're going to have Mark
Andrews running routes. 

991
01:03:43,200 --> 01:03:47,160
Yeah, good point. 
But yeah, I, I, I think it 

992
01:03:47,160 --> 01:03:48,640
sounds like we're on the same 
page there. 

993
01:03:49,080 --> 01:03:53,440
Yeah, the other guy who is 
certainly interesting in tight 

994
01:03:53,440 --> 01:03:58,360
end premium got a pretty 
impressive A dot and I mean 

995
01:03:58,360 --> 01:04:00,640
targets for Outrun for for being
a rookie. 

996
01:04:01,000 --> 01:04:03,760
He's also getting a quarterback 
change potentially. 

997
01:04:03,760 --> 01:04:08,400
Is Theo Johnson one of one of 
the highest A dots that we've 

998
01:04:08,400 --> 01:04:10,520
got on the chart here for tight 
ends? 

999
01:04:11,920 --> 01:04:20,440
He had a a pretty athletic play.
I mean, the the problem so well,

1000
01:04:20,440 --> 01:04:23,240
there's a lot of warts on this 
frog 1 is he plays for the 

1001
01:04:23,240 --> 01:04:27,360
Giants. 2 is the Giants also 
happen to have Malik neighbors 

1002
01:04:27,360 --> 01:04:30,480
there who's just an absolute 
target spun. 

1003
01:04:30,480 --> 01:04:32,160
She's just soaking up 
everything. 

1004
01:04:32,720 --> 01:04:37,880
So with Theo Johnson, like the 
problems are it's probably low 

1005
01:04:37,880 --> 01:04:39,760
volume. 
It's probably pretty poor 

1006
01:04:39,760 --> 01:04:44,680
quality passes and so I'm like 
but he's. 

1007
01:04:44,800 --> 01:04:47,720
He's seen six targets 2 weeks in
a row. 

1008
01:04:48,480 --> 01:04:52,360
Like, yeah, put him in the in 
the in the category of tight 

1009
01:04:52,360 --> 01:04:56,920
ends, firmly with a pulse. 
Yes, yeah, for sure, for sure 

1010
01:04:56,920 --> 01:05:00,840
with a pulse, you know, all 
those 20th round Theo Johnson 

1011
01:05:00,840 --> 01:05:04,360
shares that I took. 
You know, I'm, I'm thinking how 

1012
01:05:04,360 --> 01:05:07,000
smart I am that he's on the back
of all my rosters now. 

1013
01:05:07,480 --> 01:05:09,800
I'm just, there's a lot of 
fragility with it. 

1014
01:05:09,800 --> 01:05:13,240
It's like, does Drew Lock target
Theo Johnson as much as Daniel 

1015
01:05:13,240 --> 01:05:16,400
Jones did? 
Like, and, and that's not only a

1016
01:05:16,400 --> 01:05:18,560
negative thing like that can 
also be a positive. 

1017
01:05:18,600 --> 01:05:21,240
Like if you if you end up 
getting out there and Drew Lock 

1018
01:05:21,240 --> 01:05:25,080
just happens to have a crush on 
Theo Johnson and he's just 

1019
01:05:25,080 --> 01:05:28,160
peppering him with targets like 
that could be a really good 

1020
01:05:28,320 --> 01:05:30,960
thing. 
So it's, it's a wide range of 

1021
01:05:30,960 --> 01:05:33,920
outcomes here, but the 
opportunity looks like it could 

1022
01:05:33,920 --> 01:05:37,040
be there for Theo Johnson. 
He he's just, he's on the field 

1023
01:05:37,040 --> 01:05:40,120
a lot, which is great. 
Like that's really bullish for 

1024
01:05:40,120 --> 01:05:41,360
him. 
You know, to be a rookie tight 

1025
01:05:41,360 --> 01:05:44,800
end that's on the field, like, 
you know, damn near 100% of the 

1026
01:05:44,800 --> 01:05:49,360
time, it's pretty damn good. 
So I just wanted to, you know, 

1027
01:05:49,360 --> 01:05:52,920
he's he's definitely worth a, an
ad on FFPC. 

1028
01:05:52,920 --> 01:05:58,920
I I would say yeah, he's harder 
to use in non tight end premium 

1029
01:05:58,920 --> 01:06:02,320
formats. 
But I mean, just for example, 

1030
01:06:03,200 --> 01:06:05,080
Tray McBride is on a bye week 
this week. 

1031
01:06:09,880 --> 01:06:11,720
What's that? 
So is Theo Johnson. 

1032
01:06:12,360 --> 01:06:14,200
Oh, Oh yeah, good point. 
Good point. 

1033
01:06:14,920 --> 01:06:18,320
But if he weren't, imagine. 
Yeah, imagine. 

1034
01:06:18,360 --> 01:06:20,040
Imagine. 
Well, you know, call. 

1035
01:06:20,040 --> 01:06:22,440
Pitts is on a buy next week. 
They. 

1036
01:06:24,600 --> 01:06:30,440
But I, I, I I think, I think 
that's apart, apart from him 

1037
01:06:30,440 --> 01:06:35,200
being like a pretty interesting 
stash and and not the worst and 

1038
01:06:35,200 --> 01:06:37,840
flex play in in, in high end 
premium. 

1039
01:06:38,480 --> 01:06:42,240
I I think that's the way to 
think about him for and non 

1040
01:06:42,240 --> 01:06:48,280
tight end premium. 
I don't, I, I guess I, I, he's 

1041
01:06:48,280 --> 01:06:52,360
probably borderline for playable
on dog Bowl where you have to 

1042
01:06:52,520 --> 01:06:57,400
like it's, it's what, a draft of
a draft of 12? 

1043
01:06:57,880 --> 01:07:01,840
Yeah. 
And so you like he's he could be

1044
01:07:01,840 --> 01:07:05,040
Titan 12 in ADP and that that 
could be OK. 

1045
01:07:06,800 --> 01:07:07,880
Yeah, let me I'm. 
Going to pull up. 

1046
01:07:07,880 --> 01:07:09,240
Not this week, obviously. 
I'm. 

1047
01:07:09,400 --> 01:07:11,360
Pulling up, I'm pulling up the 
slate next week. 

1048
01:07:11,400 --> 01:07:13,920
I want to look, I want to see if
I can do some Theo Johnson. 

1049
01:07:14,120 --> 01:07:18,440
Oh baby, Theo Johnson against 
the Bucks on a let's see. 

1050
01:07:22,440 --> 01:07:27,560
Looks like A10 game slate Theo 
Oh boy. 

1051
01:07:27,720 --> 01:07:31,880
OK, 20 total tight ends. 
Some of them are just not 

1052
01:07:32,520 --> 01:07:38,360
fantasy players. 
Yeah, playable. 

1053
01:07:38,360 --> 01:07:40,840
That's very playable. 
Yeah, he's playable next week. 

1054
01:07:41,720 --> 01:07:44,600
All right, let's let's mum's the
word on Theo Johnson, everybody.

1055
01:07:44,600 --> 01:07:47,360
We all, we all get there, man. 
That's. 

1056
01:07:47,360 --> 01:07:51,800
Everybody, everybody watching 
this, please forget until after 

1057
01:07:51,800 --> 01:07:54,680
next week. 
It's the last week to qualify to

1058
01:07:54,760 --> 01:07:58,200
next week. 
I mean, Draco, I think I think 

1059
01:07:58,200 --> 01:08:00,080
it's writing itself. 
It's quite Yeah. 

1060
01:08:00,400 --> 01:08:04,600
It's, you know, zero dog bowl 
tickets yet despite, you know, 

1061
01:08:04,600 --> 01:08:07,160
my efforts. 
Maybe I get there on the back of

1062
01:08:07,160 --> 01:08:10,640
Theo Johnson, one of my favorite
rookie Titans to draft this 

1063
01:08:10,640 --> 01:08:13,560
whole offseason. 
Oh, I I see it now. 

1064
01:08:15,160 --> 01:08:21,640
All right, the. 
Just like with impeccable 

1065
01:08:21,640 --> 01:08:24,840
timing, Sam pops in. 
OK, give me the give me the 

1066
01:08:24,840 --> 01:08:28,960
backup tight end chart. 
Unfortunately, Sam, I still have

1067
01:08:28,960 --> 01:08:32,479
guys that I want to talk about. 
Oh, actually I'm going to jump 

1068
01:08:32,479 --> 01:08:35,640
one spot in my notes to talk 
about a player that I know Sam 

1069
01:08:35,640 --> 01:08:39,439
is going to be happy to hear 
about the Dalton Kincaid injury.

1070
01:08:40,479 --> 01:08:45,160
I mean, it was already over for 
Dalton Kincaid, but do you think

1071
01:08:45,160 --> 01:08:49,479
that the Dawson knocks like 
number one, how big a difference

1072
01:08:49,479 --> 01:08:51,720
is there between Dawson Knox and
Dalton Kincaid? 

1073
01:08:51,720 --> 01:08:55,200
Do you view them as as at all 
different this week? 

1074
01:08:55,200 --> 01:08:57,720
If you were, you know, if you 
were going to start Dalton 

1075
01:08:57,720 --> 01:09:00,800
Kincaid, would you just start 
Dawson Knox instead? 

1076
01:09:02,800 --> 01:09:06,640
Well, to be fair, even with the 
kind of limited route tree, 

1077
01:09:08,439 --> 01:09:11,960
Dalton Kincaid was seeing 
targets like if you look at the 

1078
01:09:11,960 --> 01:09:16,160
average from week 4 to week 
nine, you're looking at an 

1079
01:09:16,240 --> 01:09:18,600
average of about 7 targets a 
game. 

1080
01:09:19,960 --> 01:09:24,040
And then if I if like, just 
because you've set the bar so 

1081
01:09:24,040 --> 01:09:27,439
low, like I, I, I want to, I 
want to shit on Dalton Kincaid 

1082
01:09:27,439 --> 01:09:31,279
as much as the next guy, but 
when the buyer is Dawson Knox 

1083
01:09:32,040 --> 01:09:38,560
and that is a lot harder to do. 
And, and to to be fair to Dalton

1084
01:09:38,560 --> 01:09:42,640
Kincaid, the reason he didn't 
have a really good game this 

1085
01:09:42,640 --> 01:09:45,960
last week was that Josh Allen 
stunk out loud when he threw the

1086
01:09:45,960 --> 01:09:48,520
ball to him. 
In fact, one of the passes was 

1087
01:09:48,520 --> 01:09:52,279
so, so abhorrent that it injured
Dalton Kincaid. 

1088
01:09:53,800 --> 01:09:56,920
He laid out to try and get it 
and he came down really 

1089
01:09:56,920 --> 01:10:01,280
awkwardly on his knee. 
So, and, and honestly, there 

1090
01:10:01,280 --> 01:10:05,880
have been this, this sounds like
this is what you might hear from

1091
01:10:05,880 --> 01:10:11,800
a Dalton Kincaid copium enjoyer.
And I, I need to, you know, 

1092
01:10:11,840 --> 01:10:16,400
firmly state that I am not that 
I'm president of the Dalton 

1093
01:10:16,400 --> 01:10:21,120
Kincaid hater fan club, but I 
should be way more wrong this 

1094
01:10:21,120 --> 01:10:26,480
season than it's turned out. 
And, and I did, I drafted, I 

1095
01:10:26,480 --> 01:10:28,120
think I had like 10% Dalton 
Kincaid. 

1096
01:10:28,120 --> 01:10:31,480
So I came in ever so slightly 
overweight because I didn't want

1097
01:10:31,480 --> 01:10:35,160
to be so confident that I was 
wrong or or that Dalton Kincaid 

1098
01:10:35,160 --> 01:10:40,000
was bad in a situation like the 
Bill's offense where it really 

1099
01:10:40,000 --> 01:10:42,400
looked like he could potentially
consolidate a lot of targets, 

1100
01:10:42,400 --> 01:10:46,000
which would be incredible for 
the tight end position, right? 

1101
01:10:46,360 --> 01:10:50,000
So I would be a lot more wrong 
on my opinion that Dalton 

1102
01:10:50,000 --> 01:10:53,920
Kincaid stinks this year if 
things broke ever so slightly 

1103
01:10:53,920 --> 01:10:56,520
different for him. 
And I don't think a lot of that 

1104
01:10:56,520 --> 01:10:58,960
is talent related. 
A a big chunk of it is is 

1105
01:10:58,960 --> 01:11:02,520
literally just been like unlucky
on the quality of some of the 

1106
01:11:02,520 --> 01:11:06,200
targets, especially like the 
deeper ones, which yes, those 

1107
01:11:06,200 --> 01:11:09,680
are going to be harder to 
complete, but still like the he 

1108
01:11:09,680 --> 01:11:12,920
he's been running bad on some 
plays that would have otherwise 

1109
01:11:12,920 --> 01:11:21,960
been splash plays for him. 
Yeah, yeah, you know, it it it's

1110
01:11:21,960 --> 01:11:28,880
hard to sell me on the idea that
hit the offense uttered. 

1111
01:11:28,880 --> 01:11:32,120
I know the volume has been bad. 
The volume hasn't been great. 

1112
01:11:32,560 --> 01:11:36,000
But in terms of like the the 
efficiency environment, he does 

1113
01:11:36,000 --> 01:11:39,640
play with Josh Allen like, and 
it's like if you can't play 

1114
01:11:39,640 --> 01:11:43,520
efficiently with Josh Allen, it 
does sound like a skill issue. 

1115
01:11:44,680 --> 01:11:47,120
I, I think that's the most 
likely outcome. 

1116
01:11:48,200 --> 01:11:52,000
I just, I also want it to be 
known that in the, in the range 

1117
01:11:52,000 --> 01:11:56,040
of outcomes, it, it definitely 
seems like Kincaid could have 

1118
01:11:56,040 --> 01:12:00,800
gotten there this season, 
probably not like the, the top 

1119
01:12:00,800 --> 01:12:03,480
end of his range that people 
were thinking was possible in 

1120
01:12:03,480 --> 01:12:06,720
the summer that didn't actually 
exist because he's not, he's not

1121
01:12:06,720 --> 01:12:10,120
that talented. 
That's the, that's the part that

1122
01:12:10,120 --> 01:12:15,160
we are missing. 
But he like an 80th percentile 

1123
01:12:15,160 --> 01:12:20,920
outcome for Kincaid would be 
probably like Titan 4 or 

1124
01:12:20,920 --> 01:12:24,040
something, you know, like he, he
definitely could have had a 

1125
01:12:24,040 --> 01:12:25,880
really good season is all I'm 
saying. 

1126
01:12:26,360 --> 01:12:28,960
Right, right, right. 
It, it, I mean, what people said

1127
01:12:28,960 --> 01:12:34,040
about Kincaid was that if the 
Bills are going to be good then 

1128
01:12:34,040 --> 01:12:36,280
or if they're going to have a 
good passing attack, then 

1129
01:12:36,520 --> 01:12:38,560
Kincaid has to be a big part of 
that. 

1130
01:12:39,480 --> 01:12:45,200
And the Bills tried to make that
happen, but it didn't work out. 

1131
01:12:45,960 --> 01:12:51,040
So like some of the thesis was 
was correct but it didn't work 

1132
01:12:51,040 --> 01:12:54,080
out. 
Yeah, All right, we can. 

1133
01:12:54,080 --> 01:12:59,120
We can move on from Kincaid. 
I had two pretty quick guys I 

1134
01:12:59,120 --> 01:13:01,280
wanted to get your opinion on 
real quick. 

1135
01:13:01,640 --> 01:13:03,320
We talked a little bit about 
this guy. 

1136
01:13:03,720 --> 01:13:08,320
So Cole Comet, the guy I chose 
to lose a lot of money on last 

1137
01:13:08,320 --> 01:13:12,440
week playing in dog bowl drafts 
with Caleb, is he worth a dart 

1138
01:13:12,440 --> 01:13:14,360
throw this week now that Walter 
is gone? 

1139
01:13:17,760 --> 01:13:20,800
I mean, I think, I think command
is good. 

1140
01:13:21,720 --> 01:13:25,520
The problem, I guess some of the
problem is that he's actually, 

1141
01:13:25,520 --> 01:13:27,800
he actually has been playing a 
lot of routes. 

1142
01:13:27,800 --> 01:13:30,520
It's not like they've taken him 
off the field for these 

1143
01:13:30,520 --> 01:13:33,840
inexplicable reasons. 
And I, I, I like command a lot. 

1144
01:13:33,840 --> 01:13:38,600
I have a decent amount of them, 
but he ran 80% of routes last 

1145
01:13:38,600 --> 01:13:47,040
week on 41 drop backs and and I 
guess he had four targets for 13

1146
01:13:47,040 --> 01:13:52,800
yards and the offense did just 
stink and five targets, 70 

1147
01:13:52,800 --> 01:13:56,920
yards, 4 targets, 57 yards. 
And then he had a weird, a 

1148
01:13:56,920 --> 01:14:00,880
really weird game where he 
didn't run that many Reds in in 

1149
01:14:00,880 --> 01:14:06,880
week. 
I think it's week 9, a week 

1150
01:14:06,880 --> 01:14:09,840
eight week 8, I should say. 
Yeah. 

1151
01:14:09,840 --> 01:14:12,800
But I, I, I guess that the tight
end position can be spiky. 

1152
01:14:13,440 --> 01:14:19,400
And in weeks where Caleb 
Williams played well, like I I 

1153
01:14:19,400 --> 01:14:23,080
guess you've got that weak tree 
game where where command 

1154
01:14:23,080 --> 01:14:31,840
smashed, you've got yeah, I, I 
don't I, I, I think it's tough, 

1155
01:14:32,640 --> 01:14:38,000
but it's possible. 
But it's tough is is how I'd say

1156
01:14:38,000 --> 01:14:38,520
it. 
Like it. 

1157
01:14:38,520 --> 01:14:44,480
It's like Coca met my baseline 
expectation for his talent isn't

1158
01:14:44,480 --> 01:14:48,760
so high that I think you should 
just throw out per recent 

1159
01:14:48,760 --> 01:14:52,760
results. 
Yeah, that that makes sense. 

1160
01:14:53,400 --> 01:14:54,840
OK. 
The other guy I wanted your 

1161
01:14:54,840 --> 01:14:59,800
opinion on TJ Hawkinson. 
Is he all the way back now? 

1162
01:14:59,920 --> 01:15:02,920
And is he startable this week 
against the Titans? 

1163
01:15:04,800 --> 01:15:10,680
So all the way back, so he was 
71% route share in, in, in week 

1164
01:15:10,680 --> 01:15:14,520
10, up from 60%. 
So if you're, if you're 

1165
01:15:14,520 --> 01:15:17,360
extrapolating there, you say 
that's going to that could be 

1166
01:15:17,360 --> 01:15:20,400
80% this week, which is pretty 
good, right run for tight end, 

1167
01:15:21,200 --> 01:15:26,160
30% targets per run. 
So at 9 targets, 72 yards. 

1168
01:15:27,440 --> 01:15:36,240
And I mean, I, I do think that 
like even weak tree in, in, in 

1169
01:15:36,240 --> 01:15:39,400
your first couple of games back 
from ACL injuries is still very 

1170
01:15:39,400 --> 01:15:41,040
much part of the recovery 
process. 

1171
01:15:41,600 --> 01:15:50,680
But that like getting 9 targets 
and 71% rent rate is pretty 

1172
01:15:50,680 --> 01:15:55,120
good. 
So I, I think, I think you can 

1173
01:15:55,120 --> 01:15:59,480
play this guy with the hope that
he's getting with the idea that 

1174
01:15:59,480 --> 01:16:02,680
he's getting ramped back up. 
I don't think it's there yet, 

1175
01:16:02,680 --> 01:16:06,040
but I think I, I think that I 
think you can play based on what

1176
01:16:06,040 --> 01:16:10,320
we've seen so far pretty easily.
Yeah, I I agree with you. 

1177
01:16:10,320 --> 01:16:13,080
He's definitely in play for me 
this week. 

1178
01:16:13,600 --> 01:16:16,360
He's a little, he's a little 
rich for me on underdog. 

1179
01:16:16,360 --> 01:16:22,000
He's going off as the tight end 
5 going ahead of Mark Andrews, 

1180
01:16:22,200 --> 01:16:27,160
Evan Ingram, Taysom Hill, Sam 
Laporta, Tucker Kraft, Kyle 

1181
01:16:27,160 --> 01:16:29,680
Pitts. 
So he's he's going a little 

1182
01:16:29,680 --> 01:16:32,760
rich. 
I don't even know that that's 

1183
01:16:32,760 --> 01:16:38,760
necessarily wrong. 
But I, I mean, I think another 

1184
01:16:38,760 --> 01:16:43,600
part of it too, is like the 
pumpkinification of Sam Darnold 

1185
01:16:44,080 --> 01:16:49,960
might be contributing to the 
fact that like that might be 

1186
01:16:49,960 --> 01:16:53,600
leading to this inordinate 
target share for TJ Hawkinson, 

1187
01:16:54,000 --> 01:16:57,040
where Darnold is just like 
regressing back into the Darnold

1188
01:16:57,040 --> 01:17:01,760
that we were pretty familiar 
with over his career so far. 

1189
01:17:02,280 --> 01:17:05,360
And so Hawkinson is just just 
really nice safety blanket for 

1190
01:17:05,360 --> 01:17:07,720
him. 
And I wonder if he just 

1191
01:17:07,720 --> 01:17:11,520
continues to lean on him heavily
like we saw in this last game. 

1192
01:17:11,520 --> 01:17:15,640
So that's that's another wrinkle
there that I just want to keep 

1193
01:17:15,640 --> 01:17:19,040
an eye on. 
OK, We spent a lot of time on 

1194
01:17:19,040 --> 01:17:23,760
the tight end chart here. 
I did have one last thing where 

1195
01:17:23,760 --> 01:17:28,720
I just want to rapid fire and 
ask you how dead these fringe 

1196
01:17:28,720 --> 01:17:31,240
tight ends are that we are 
drafting in best ball. 

1197
01:17:31,240 --> 01:17:34,600
So if you're looking at a best 
ball roster and you see this 

1198
01:17:34,600 --> 01:17:39,040
tight end on your line up, is 
this a guy that's totally dead 

1199
01:17:39,040 --> 01:17:41,200
or he could randomly do 
something for you in the 

1200
01:17:41,200 --> 01:17:44,080
playoffs? 
So just quick, quick answers. 

1201
01:17:44,080 --> 01:17:45,560
I'm going to hit you at some 
names here. 

1202
01:17:46,200 --> 01:17:50,200
First one, no a fan. 
No a fan that. 

1203
01:17:50,520 --> 01:17:54,800
That seems pretty bad seems 
pretty bad and I guess some of 

1204
01:17:54,800 --> 01:18:05,800
that's because he's injured, but
so I guess if I'm being so I'm 

1205
01:18:05,800 --> 01:18:09,680
being fully respectful here. 
He's put up some decent games. 

1206
01:18:09,680 --> 01:18:16,600
So like you, you can, I guess 
I'm going to change my mind 

1207
01:18:16,600 --> 01:18:21,440
there, looking at this data that
you you you can get some solid 

1208
01:18:21,440 --> 01:18:25,040
games from no fans like that. 
That seems pretty realistic. 

1209
01:18:25,400 --> 01:18:28,120
Let's let's sit on the backups 
chart while we go through the 

1210
01:18:28,120 --> 01:18:30,360
rest of these games because 
that's where a decent number of 

1211
01:18:30,360 --> 01:18:32,520
them live. 
There's no offense right at the 

1212
01:18:32,520 --> 01:18:36,960
top, Juan Johnson. 
Oh that, that's, that's like so 

1213
01:18:36,960 --> 01:18:40,560
fucking bad. 
That's not good, Colby 

1214
01:18:40,560 --> 01:18:43,760
Parkinson. 
And did he get hurt? 

1215
01:18:44,640 --> 01:18:48,680
He was hurt two, he was hurt two
weeks ago, last week I believe 

1216
01:18:48,680 --> 01:18:52,920
he was not on the injury report.
He just got significantly out 

1217
01:18:52,920 --> 01:18:56,000
snapped by Davis Allen. 
All the all the sharks, all the 

1218
01:18:56,000 --> 01:18:58,160
Showdown sharks were slamming 
Davis Allen. 

1219
01:18:59,000 --> 01:19:01,040
Yay. 
I don't think he got a target. 

1220
01:19:01,760 --> 01:19:04,960
He's not showing up on that. 
No, no, Parkinson did not. 

1221
01:19:04,960 --> 01:19:06,920
It was. 
It was Davis Allen all day. 

1222
01:19:08,040 --> 01:19:10,640
Yeah, that's that's not great 
for him. 

1223
01:19:11,240 --> 01:19:15,320
And so, yeah, if he's gotten 
cooked, then then then he's 

1224
01:19:15,320 --> 01:19:17,280
cooked. 
OK. 

1225
01:19:17,440 --> 01:19:24,640
Dalton Schultz, Dalton Schultz. 
So like Dalton Schultz was 

1226
01:19:24,800 --> 01:19:27,600
drafted higher, much higher than
all of these guys. 

1227
01:19:27,600 --> 01:19:31,040
So the fact that he's like in 
this discussion is really bad. 

1228
01:19:31,600 --> 01:19:35,160
Yes, and you got Nico coming 
back and he hasn't been able to 

1229
01:19:35,160 --> 01:19:36,520
earn anything. 
With Nico gone. 

1230
01:19:36,520 --> 01:19:40,160
I I think it's curtains for 
Dalton Schultz, Tyler Conklin. 

1231
01:19:41,200 --> 01:19:45,240
Tyler Conklin I'm, I'm actually,
I'm, I'm forced to start him in 

1232
01:19:45,240 --> 01:19:47,640
my home link this week, so I I 
hope he's there. 

1233
01:19:49,160 --> 01:19:51,280
Like at. 
Least this week he he can do 

1234
01:19:51,280 --> 01:19:59,760
something so you're looking at 
pretty like in the last four 

1235
01:19:59,760 --> 01:20:05,520
games he's played 77% in rat rat
run, you're looking at 10% 

1236
01:20:05,520 --> 01:20:08,680
targets, but run you're just 
hoping for a touchdown here that

1237
01:20:08,680 --> 01:20:12,560
that's. 
You're this is this is like you 

1238
01:20:12,560 --> 01:20:16,360
should have dropped them in like
round 18 in, in BBM and you're 

1239
01:20:16,360 --> 01:20:17,520
hoping you can get a touchdown. 
Yeah. 

1240
01:20:18,960 --> 01:20:20,600
All right, last one Pat Fryer 
youth. 

1241
01:20:21,240 --> 01:20:25,920
Pat Fryerman Oh my God, did you,
by the way, did you see in in 

1242
01:20:25,920 --> 01:20:31,680
Davis's discord that somebody 
tied all and said, oh, hey, Pat 

1243
01:20:31,680 --> 01:20:34,200
Fryerman or Noah fan or or 
something like that? 

1244
01:20:35,280 --> 01:20:40,240
That was very funny. 
Yeah, Pat, fire me with dead or 

1245
01:20:40,240 --> 01:20:43,360
alive. 
Based on where you drafted him, 

1246
01:20:43,360 --> 01:20:45,560
pretty dead. 
Pretty dead here. 

1247
01:20:46,160 --> 01:20:47,720
Yeah. 
All right. 

1248
01:20:47,720 --> 01:20:49,440
Let's move to the wide receiver 
charts. 

1249
01:20:49,520 --> 01:20:51,400
We'll we'll bring it home. 
I think we're going to get out 

1250
01:20:51,400 --> 01:20:54,320
of here under 2 hours, pretty 
safe with Draco. 

1251
01:20:54,400 --> 01:20:59,880
That's a milestone for us. 
So the first guy, I mean, we got

1252
01:20:59,880 --> 01:21:01,520
to talk about this guy. 
He's coming off a BI. 

1253
01:21:01,520 --> 01:21:04,080
So nothing, nothing new happened
this last week. 

1254
01:21:04,160 --> 01:21:07,200
But I do think we've got to talk
about him this week. 

1255
01:21:07,880 --> 01:21:11,120
How are you treating JSN this 
week? 

1256
01:21:11,280 --> 01:21:14,400
Are you just assuming the 
breakout is going to be the new 

1257
01:21:14,400 --> 01:21:17,640
normal and you want to play him 
aggressively into San Francisco 

1258
01:21:17,640 --> 01:21:21,040
or how are you handling him 
here? 

1259
01:21:23,240 --> 01:21:27,880
So. 
You can't ignore a breakout like

1260
01:21:27,880 --> 01:21:33,000
that where he he just completely
dominates and they they 

1261
01:21:33,120 --> 01:21:37,120
completely, they completely 
changed his routes that they 

1262
01:21:37,200 --> 01:21:41,000
they had him from like running 
only predominantly short stuff 

1263
01:21:41,280 --> 01:21:44,000
to just covering every blade of 
grass. 

1264
01:21:44,480 --> 01:21:47,240
And he dominated coming out of 
the bye week. 

1265
01:21:47,680 --> 01:21:49,680
I can't see them like ignoring 
that. 

1266
01:21:51,000 --> 01:21:56,360
So I'd be like cautiously 
optimistic that he continues 

1267
01:21:56,360 --> 01:22:00,200
that kind of run. 
But I guess you have a good 

1268
01:22:00,200 --> 01:22:03,560
chance of DK Metcalf coming back
and not equalizing out. 

1269
01:22:04,760 --> 01:22:07,920
But I'm, I'm, I'm like 
cautiously optimistic that 

1270
01:22:07,920 --> 01:22:09,400
that's like that's going to 
stick. 

1271
01:22:09,920 --> 01:22:12,400
Let me hit you with a couple 
guys that are going ahead of him

1272
01:22:12,920 --> 01:22:17,520
right now in underdog drafts, 
Courtland Sutton or JSN. 

1273
01:22:18,040 --> 01:22:22,920
Oh JSN, that's not a question. 
Senator Tillman or JSN? 

1274
01:22:23,760 --> 01:22:26,680
JSN Are these the guys that are 
going ahead of them? 

1275
01:22:27,000 --> 01:22:30,480
Oh yeah? 
Oh, baby Calvin Ridley or JSN? 

1276
01:22:31,360 --> 01:22:35,320
JSN. 
Yeah, what? 

1277
01:22:35,320 --> 01:22:39,120
What I I like have one week 
where I'm not able to draft 

1278
01:22:39,120 --> 01:22:41,720
early in the week prior to 
projections being out and we've 

1279
01:22:41,720 --> 01:22:45,080
got shit like Drake London being
drafted after Courtland Sutton. 

1280
01:22:45,440 --> 01:22:47,880
What's going on, people? 
What are you doing? 

1281
01:22:48,720 --> 01:22:51,640
Yeah, that's that's, that's a 
little wild. 

1282
01:22:52,040 --> 01:22:55,720
Hello hello, anyone out there? 
Are there any signs of 

1283
01:22:55,720 --> 01:23:01,040
intelligent life anywhere? 
JSN or DeAndre Hopkins. 

1284
01:23:04,680 --> 01:23:08,000
I think it's JSN, like just 
because you, you saw, you saw a 

1285
01:23:08,000 --> 01:23:14,000
life of that like incredible 
ceiling, whereas I, I think Nuke

1286
01:23:14,360 --> 01:23:17,400
has a better ceiling than those 
other guys. 

1287
01:23:17,520 --> 01:23:21,320
But I I'm I'm still favoring JSN
right now. 

1288
01:23:22,080 --> 01:23:27,320
Yeah, OK. 
The we the I feel like the theme

1289
01:23:27,320 --> 01:23:32,080
of this episode has been can we 
actually play Chicago players? 

1290
01:23:32,480 --> 01:23:35,800
So Keenan and DJ Moore both are 
on this chart. 

1291
01:23:36,280 --> 01:23:40,560
They both live O Doonese too. 
All all three of them live in 

1292
01:23:40,560 --> 01:23:45,280
this bottom left quadrant. 
Like I wonder how many teams 

1293
01:23:45,440 --> 01:23:48,680
even can have all three 
receivers in the bottom left 

1294
01:23:48,680 --> 01:23:52,320
quadrant of of the first wide 
receiver chart. 

1295
01:23:52,360 --> 01:23:55,280
Like that seems incredible to 
me. 

1296
01:23:55,280 --> 01:23:57,160
I don't think we've ever seen 
that before. 

1297
01:23:58,240 --> 01:24:03,760
So I mean, what that suggests to
me is that these guys, they all 

1298
01:24:03,760 --> 01:24:08,920
they have a lock on rideshare, 
but they're they're kind of 

1299
01:24:08,920 --> 01:24:12,400
cannibalizing each other. 
None of them is kind of like 

1300
01:24:12,920 --> 01:24:17,240
setting ahead of the odor, like 
separating ahead of the odor in,

1301
01:24:17,440 --> 01:24:20,480
in targets. 
And none of them is actually 

1302
01:24:20,480 --> 01:24:23,040
separating in terms of 
production either. 

1303
01:24:25,160 --> 01:24:28,960
So that that, that that does 
make it tricky like who do you 

1304
01:24:28,960 --> 01:24:33,000
pick? 
And I think, I think you 

1305
01:24:33,000 --> 01:24:37,880
probably like pick the rookie 
or, or I, I think Keenan Allen 

1306
01:24:37,880 --> 01:24:40,600
is probably the odd man out 
there if you're trying to figure

1307
01:24:40,600 --> 01:24:44,280
out what has to change given 
he's the older guy. 

1308
01:24:47,040 --> 01:24:48,840
Is, is, is how I would look at 
that. 

1309
01:24:50,360 --> 01:24:56,240
Yeah, I'm gosh, I I want to be 
brave and play the bears again 

1310
01:24:56,360 --> 01:24:59,040
after they just stuck out loud 
with. 

1311
01:25:00,000 --> 01:25:03,680
I just, I don't know how I'm 
gonna I'm gonna have to do some 

1312
01:25:03,680 --> 01:25:07,800
soul searching and and think 
about how volatile I I think 

1313
01:25:08,600 --> 01:25:13,080
this spot really is or if it's 
just gonna be the same bears but

1314
01:25:13,080 --> 01:25:18,760
with a slightly different odor, 
you know, like am I, am I, am I 

1315
01:25:18,760 --> 01:25:23,160
switching from just like jar 
full of farts to terrible body 

1316
01:25:23,160 --> 01:25:25,000
odor? 
Like, is that what I'm huffing 

1317
01:25:25,000 --> 01:25:28,400
when I play the bears? 
So I don't know. 

1318
01:25:28,400 --> 01:25:31,760
I'm gonna have to figure out if 
I'm willing to want to do that 

1319
01:25:31,760 --> 01:25:35,280
to myself again. 
Those are honestly the only wide

1320
01:25:35,280 --> 01:25:37,640
receivers I wanted to talk about
on on this chart. 

1321
01:25:37,640 --> 01:25:41,720
I didn't every everyone else, I 
feel like, you know, not a ton 

1322
01:25:41,720 --> 01:25:44,760
has changed. 
We kind of know what these guys 

1323
01:25:44,760 --> 01:25:47,520
are. 
I guess we, we, we could do like

1324
01:25:47,520 --> 01:25:59,120
a check in of, of Devante and 
Garrett Wilson where I guess I, 

1325
01:25:59,120 --> 01:26:03,560
I, I, I was, I was kind of wrong
on them, on the amount of 

1326
01:26:03,560 --> 01:26:08,560
targets that Devante could earn.
And but then you you look at the

1327
01:26:08,760 --> 01:26:12,640
the A dot and it's it's like all
short stuff. 

1328
01:26:13,440 --> 01:26:18,160
So Devante has this like good 
volume of short A dot targets. 

1329
01:26:18,920 --> 01:26:27,760
Whereas if you look at at 
Garrett Wilson and his, his A 

1330
01:26:27,840 --> 01:26:35,120
dot is in the last two games has
been short over the year of this

1331
01:26:35,120 --> 01:26:45,400
season, it's 9.7 and his, his, 
his target count has been lower.

1332
01:26:46,960 --> 01:26:50,880
So maybe I, I was probably a 
little bit premature in saying 

1333
01:26:50,880 --> 01:26:52,480
that he's kind of the alpha 
there. 

1334
01:26:52,880 --> 01:26:55,760
Like I, I think if you watch the
games, he's clearly a better 

1335
01:26:55,760 --> 01:27:01,240
receiver. 
But it I, I guess the, the trust

1336
01:27:01,240 --> 01:27:05,120
factor with Devante is, is 
important for Rodgers, even if 

1337
01:27:05,120 --> 01:27:10,600
it's not working better than 
than Garrett Wilson targets that

1338
01:27:10,600 --> 01:27:12,280
that trust factor does seem 
important. 

1339
01:27:13,080 --> 01:27:16,800
Yeah, I mean, he got an absurd. 
Did he get 13 targets this last 

1340
01:27:17,280 --> 01:27:18,680
week? 
Yeah, so. 

1341
01:27:18,960 --> 01:27:21,360
Sticks for Wilson. 
When you're getting that much 

1342
01:27:21,360 --> 01:27:26,640
volume like you could, you just 
can end up with a monster game. 

1343
01:27:26,760 --> 01:27:29,600
You know, like if you get 13 
targets, like good stuff could 

1344
01:27:29,600 --> 01:27:33,160
happen, especially when you 
know, if you get Rogers with 

1345
01:27:33,160 --> 01:27:38,360
like that locked in on one guy 
mode where he he will do that, 

1346
01:27:38,720 --> 01:27:41,800
especially like when you get 
down and you get some in zone 

1347
01:27:41,800 --> 01:27:45,520
opportunities, like you could 
easily get a three touchdown 

1348
01:27:45,520 --> 01:27:49,920
Devante Adams game. 
So the here here's the problem. 

1349
01:27:50,520 --> 01:27:56,000
The Jets are so slow with their 
pace of play that it makes me 

1350
01:27:56,000 --> 01:27:59,960
really hesitant to ever play 
Rogers. 

1351
01:28:00,520 --> 01:28:03,560
Like I, I honestly am like 
getting to the point where I 

1352
01:28:03,560 --> 01:28:07,480
don't know that Rogers is even a
viable play. 

1353
01:28:08,760 --> 01:28:11,760
Like on underdog, I don't think 
Rogers is really a viable play. 

1354
01:28:12,080 --> 01:28:16,600
Like almost ever. 
He he has to be going last round

1355
01:28:16,680 --> 01:28:21,760
and even then, like the slate 
has to be super short. 

1356
01:28:21,760 --> 01:28:24,440
So there's just not a lot of 
competition at quarterback. 

1357
01:28:24,440 --> 01:28:26,800
Like he he can't get passed by 
that many people. 

1358
01:28:27,200 --> 01:28:30,000
So I guess in, you know, weeks 
like these where there's a 

1359
01:28:30,000 --> 01:28:33,200
decent number of buys that feel 
like a time when you could 

1360
01:28:33,200 --> 01:28:36,600
consider Rogers. 
But I, I think for the most 

1361
01:28:36,600 --> 01:28:39,240
part, I just want to play if I 
am going to be playing Jets 

1362
01:28:39,240 --> 01:28:41,160
receivers, I don't want to stack
them. 

1363
01:28:42,120 --> 01:28:45,000
And, and I talked about this 
earlier in the show, like you 

1364
01:28:45,000 --> 01:28:48,960
saw such a high rate of Devonta 
and Garrett Wilson being stacked

1365
01:28:48,960 --> 01:28:55,240
with Rogers last week that if if
you don't stack with Rogers and 

1366
01:28:55,240 --> 01:28:59,280
one of those guys hits and 
Rogers doesn't get there, you're

1367
01:28:59,400 --> 01:29:02,920
at such an advantage. 
Because so many of the teams 

1368
01:29:02,920 --> 01:29:07,000
that have Adams and Wilson are 
taking this free stack with 

1369
01:29:07,000 --> 01:29:10,160
Aaron Rodgers and then just 
hamstringing themself when like 

1370
01:29:10,560 --> 01:29:14,000
you can just say, hey, it's the 
week where Devante Adams gets 2 

1371
01:29:14,000 --> 01:29:17,880
touchdowns and Aaron Rodgers 
throws for 220 yards and those 

1372
01:29:17,880 --> 01:29:20,280
two touchdowns. 
And I don't give a shit about 

1373
01:29:20,280 --> 01:29:22,320
those Rodgers points. 
Like that doesn't do anything 

1374
01:29:22,320 --> 01:29:24,640
for me. 
You know, give me Brock Purdy, 

1375
01:29:24,640 --> 01:29:26,800
who's going to throw for three 
touchdowns, but they're going to

1376
01:29:26,800 --> 01:29:29,400
be spread out. 
And so I don't, you know, I'm 

1377
01:29:29,400 --> 01:29:33,280
happy to have Devante with Brock
Purdy instead of taking Aaron 

1378
01:29:33,280 --> 01:29:37,600
Rodgers, so. 
I the only thing it is kind of 

1379
01:29:37,600 --> 01:29:41,920
wild that Devante had 13 targets
and only 94 air yards. 

1380
01:29:44,960 --> 01:29:47,320
It's hard. 
It is hard for me to see that 

1381
01:29:47,320 --> 01:29:53,200
being like a like a big like 
touchdown game, but it can 

1382
01:29:53,200 --> 01:29:55,640
certainly happen. 
But I, I, I do want to like kind

1383
01:29:55,640 --> 01:29:58,800
of make that note. 
And I'm sorry for interrupting 

1384
01:29:58,800 --> 01:30:02,160
your your excellent point. 
No, no, no, I I agree with you. 

1385
01:30:02,160 --> 01:30:05,680
It's not, it's not like in the 
past when Devante was getting, 

1386
01:30:05,680 --> 01:30:08,080
you know, 13 targets and they 
were coming further down the 

1387
01:30:08,080 --> 01:30:13,320
field and you know, he'd he'd be
putting up, you know, 150 a 180 

1388
01:30:13,320 --> 01:30:18,280
yards on on those targets. 
Like what I'm thinking is it's 

1389
01:30:18,520 --> 01:30:21,520
much more likely that if he is 
going to get there on this high 

1390
01:30:21,840 --> 01:30:25,080
target volume, low A dot stuff, 
it's because The Jets are 

1391
01:30:25,080 --> 01:30:28,640
actually functional on offense, 
get a couple of opportunities 

1392
01:30:29,040 --> 01:30:30,760
and he's able to convert that 
way. 

1393
01:30:32,240 --> 01:30:35,040
But you would think you would 
think normally if that was like,

1394
01:30:35,080 --> 01:30:37,320
oh, this is my thesis on how 
this player gets here. 

1395
01:30:37,320 --> 01:30:40,560
This is the most likely outcome 
for him to be a guy you need in 

1396
01:30:40,560 --> 01:30:43,240
a week be like, great. 
That's a great spot to stack 

1397
01:30:43,240 --> 01:30:46,520
with the quarterback. 
And even if Rodgers has like A2 

1398
01:30:46,520 --> 01:30:49,240
touchdown game, like even a 
three touchdown game from Aaron 

1399
01:30:49,240 --> 01:30:54,560
Rodgers is probably like you're 
not gonna get 300 passing yards 

1400
01:30:54,560 --> 01:30:57,080
from Aaron Rodgers. 
Like they just, they don't run 

1401
01:30:57,080 --> 01:30:59,880
enough plays. 
It's so hard to get 300 passing 

1402
01:30:59,880 --> 01:31:05,400
yards for him like. 
Especially true Devante like 94 

1403
01:31:05,400 --> 01:31:11,640
area yards and then 31 actual 
like real boy yards on 13 

1404
01:31:11,640 --> 01:31:15,200
targets. 
Like, yeah, like Rogers, the the

1405
01:31:15,200 --> 01:31:18,480
highest yardage total, let's see
him just going back over his 

1406
01:31:18,480 --> 01:31:22,560
last five games. 
So he did hit 294 yards once. 

1407
01:31:22,560 --> 01:31:26,040
That was against the Bills. 
But other than that, it's been 

1408
01:31:26,040 --> 01:31:31,560
like 151, two hundred, 11233, 
two, 76. 

1409
01:31:31,560 --> 01:31:35,280
And the games where he actually,
like put up a decent number of 

1410
01:31:35,280 --> 01:31:38,320
yards, one of them was the 
Pittsburgh game where they're 

1411
01:31:38,320 --> 01:31:40,680
just like getting clobbered and 
they're just in full come from 

1412
01:31:40,680 --> 01:31:42,880
behind mode, right? 
So they're actually throwing and

1413
01:31:42,880 --> 01:31:47,240
playing with some semblance of 
pace, not not like what you 

1414
01:31:47,240 --> 01:31:49,160
actually should be doing. 
Still too slow. 

1415
01:31:49,960 --> 01:31:52,920
And then the Bills game where 
they were trailing a bunch and 

1416
01:31:52,920 --> 01:31:54,800
and working you. 
Want to know the last time 

1417
01:31:54,960 --> 01:31:58,160
Rogers eclipsed 300 passing 
yards? 

1418
01:31:58,560 --> 01:32:02,000
Oh man. 
It was Week 14 of 2021. 

1419
01:32:02,560 --> 01:32:05,800
Yeah, so. 
Three years ago. 

1420
01:32:06,360 --> 01:32:10,200
I'm just, I'm gonna not play 
Aaron Rodgers in weekly formats 

1421
01:32:10,200 --> 01:32:13,280
and I'm gonna sleep like a baby.
But that that doesn't mean that 

1422
01:32:13,280 --> 01:32:19,160
I'm out on his receivers. 
God, it feels it feels gross. 

1423
01:32:19,160 --> 01:32:22,320
I might, I might have a sprinkle
of of either of them this week 

1424
01:32:22,480 --> 01:32:25,680
against the Colts. 
Yeah, just 'cause they, they've 

1425
01:32:25,680 --> 01:32:29,000
been such a per defense. 
Yeah. 

1426
01:32:31,240 --> 01:32:33,440
All right, let's move on to. 
The next one moving on. 

1427
01:32:36,720 --> 01:32:39,920
And so this is our 70 to 85% 
reps run guys. 

1428
01:32:40,280 --> 01:32:43,520
These are guys who are still 
starters, very fairly starters. 

1429
01:32:43,560 --> 01:32:47,200
They're just not at the close to
100% Rep rate. 

1430
01:32:47,240 --> 01:32:51,160
Not the first chart is. 
The first guy that I wanted to 

1431
01:32:51,160 --> 01:32:54,080
talk about here was Jawan 
Jennings. 

1432
01:32:55,240 --> 01:32:59,560
So on on the preview show that 
Pat and I do over on the Leg Up 

1433
01:32:59,560 --> 01:33:04,200
channel every Friday, We talked 
about the 49ers spot last week 

1434
01:33:04,200 --> 01:33:08,400
because I was really in on Brock
Purdy and and we discussed, you 

1435
01:33:08,400 --> 01:33:11,040
know, Ricky Pearsall versus 
Juwan Jennings. 

1436
01:33:11,560 --> 01:33:15,080
And I was I was pretty excited 
about Pearsall potentially like,

1437
01:33:15,200 --> 01:33:18,520
you know, getting, getting the 
breakout out of the by, you 

1438
01:33:18,520 --> 01:33:20,680
know, getting getting more 
opportunities. 

1439
01:33:20,680 --> 01:33:23,440
He's the first round pick. 
Maybe they want to like see what

1440
01:33:23,440 --> 01:33:26,400
he can do. 
And Pat really like kind of 

1441
01:33:26,400 --> 01:33:29,320
grounded me on Jawan Jennings. 
It's like, I mean, Jennings has 

1442
01:33:29,320 --> 01:33:32,280
been really good this year. 
Like I think I think it's 

1443
01:33:32,280 --> 01:33:35,040
Jennings over Pierce all 
straight up and early in the 

1444
01:33:35,040 --> 01:33:37,120
game. 
I almost messed after the Ricky 

1445
01:33:37,120 --> 01:33:38,640
Pierce all, you know, long 
touchdown. 

1446
01:33:38,640 --> 01:33:41,840
I almost messaged Pat like, oh, 
I should've should've just 

1447
01:33:41,840 --> 01:33:43,360
slammed Pierce. 
All I knew it. 

1448
01:33:43,680 --> 01:33:47,120
And then Jennings goes on to 
just earn an incredible amount 

1449
01:33:47,120 --> 01:33:50,120
of targets. 
Like looks pretty good the whole

1450
01:33:50,120 --> 01:33:54,040
game. 
I mean, I, I just think there's 

1451
01:33:54,040 --> 01:33:57,640
too large a projection gap right
now and there probably will be 

1452
01:33:57,640 --> 01:34:01,640
for a little while 'cause it's 
just like you can't, it's going 

1453
01:34:01,640 --> 01:34:05,760
to be hard to project Joan 
Jennings to be like 90% of 

1454
01:34:05,760 --> 01:34:08,760
Brandon Iuke, you know, But I, I
don't think it's that. 

1455
01:34:09,320 --> 01:34:11,400
That's what he's playing like. 
Yeah, yeah. 

1456
01:34:11,640 --> 01:34:14,920
And so Debo Samuel is getting 
projected like this incredible 

1457
01:34:14,920 --> 01:34:19,760
play every slate. 
And Joan Jennings is like, not 

1458
01:34:19,760 --> 01:34:23,760
that different in my opinion. 
And so you got, you got the 

1459
01:34:23,760 --> 01:34:27,360
target volume again last week. 
Like he's getting deeper down 

1460
01:34:27,360 --> 01:34:30,680
the field stuff like I'm pretty 
in on Joan Jennings. 

1461
01:34:31,600 --> 01:34:33,800
I mean, playoff basketball hero 
from last year. 

1462
01:34:33,800 --> 01:34:35,800
Maybe there's a chance he runs 
it back this year. 

1463
01:34:35,800 --> 01:34:38,520
I, I just, I like Joan Jennings 
a lot. 

1464
01:34:38,520 --> 01:34:40,080
I'll probably have a ton of him 
this week. 

1465
01:34:40,320 --> 01:34:41,560
That's probably where I'm just 
going to. 

1466
01:34:41,960 --> 01:34:44,680
I looked at the ETR projections.
They've they've got him. 

1467
01:34:44,800 --> 01:34:47,200
They agree more with the 
underdog market. 

1468
01:34:47,200 --> 01:34:50,280
They've got him lower. 
That's a spot where I'm just 

1469
01:34:50,280 --> 01:34:53,200
going to disagree. 
I'm just going to smash Jawan 

1470
01:34:53,200 --> 01:34:56,120
Jennings this week. 
And and the problem with that, 

1471
01:34:56,120 --> 01:35:00,320
like this is the most likely 
outcome is this ages poorly. 

1472
01:35:00,720 --> 01:35:04,360
But it's because the 49ers 
distribution of points can be 

1473
01:35:04,360 --> 01:35:06,400
volatile because there's a lot 
of weapons there. 

1474
01:35:06,440 --> 01:35:09,880
Even with Jawan Jennings. 
Like you've got George Kittle, 

1475
01:35:09,880 --> 01:35:13,040
you've got Christian McCaffrey, 
you've got Debo, and then you've

1476
01:35:13,040 --> 01:35:15,600
got Jennings and Pearsall. 
And I think all five of those 

1477
01:35:15,600 --> 01:35:19,000
guys are alive to have a good 
game in any given week. 

1478
01:35:19,320 --> 01:35:22,480
That is part of what makes the 
49ers so good is their offense 

1479
01:35:22,760 --> 01:35:27,320
can can work through by getting 
lots of different viable weapons

1480
01:35:27,320 --> 01:35:30,680
the ball. 
So I'm not saying it's a sure 

1481
01:35:30,680 --> 01:35:32,680
thing that Jawan Jennings gets 
through this week. 

1482
01:35:32,960 --> 01:35:36,000
I'm just saying that he is not 
being priced at what his 

1483
01:35:36,000 --> 01:35:39,360
ceiling. 
His ceiling outcome is not being

1484
01:35:39,360 --> 01:35:40,920
respected in this price. 
That's all. 

1485
01:35:43,840 --> 01:35:49,720
Yeah, and and so you obviously 
you don't want to get too 

1486
01:35:49,720 --> 01:35:51,920
carried away about one good 
game. 

1487
01:35:52,920 --> 01:35:58,920
However, and you look at week 1,
he had sorry. 

1488
01:35:59,360 --> 01:36:04,120
Bless. 
You he had a 26% tiger spread 

1489
01:36:04,120 --> 01:36:07,600
run. 
Week three it was 35%, week 4 

1490
01:36:07,600 --> 01:36:12,560
was 30%, week 6 was 29% and then
last week it was 28%. 

1491
01:36:13,440 --> 01:36:17,280
So to his credit, he has been 
like a consistent volume earner 

1492
01:36:17,520 --> 01:36:21,520
in the offense. 
He's also, he is a guy they like

1493
01:36:21,520 --> 01:36:26,720
to target in the end zone too. 
Even go back to last year when 

1494
01:36:26,720 --> 01:36:29,600
they had all of their guys 
healthy, Jawan Jennings would 

1495
01:36:29,600 --> 01:36:33,320
still get in zone targets 
because he's a big bodied guy 

1496
01:36:33,320 --> 01:36:38,440
and they like him down there. 
And so yeah, Jawan Jennings like

1497
01:36:38,640 --> 01:36:41,640
grab the edge with both hands 
and hold on to it while you can.

1498
01:36:41,800 --> 01:36:46,080
We're not guaranteed to make it,
but I it's a good spot, man. 

1499
01:36:46,120 --> 01:36:53,040
I think it's a really good spot.
Yeah, yeah, I, I agree. 

1500
01:36:53,640 --> 01:36:56,160
Your your next note was about 
Tyreek Hill. 

1501
01:36:56,920 --> 01:37:00,680
And when do we, when we start to
get worried, when we start 

1502
01:37:00,680 --> 01:37:06,200
getting concerned? 
I mean, it's hard not to be 

1503
01:37:06,200 --> 01:37:09,560
worried right? 
Where like this is a dramatic, 

1504
01:37:09,560 --> 01:37:14,840
dramatic fall off from last year
and the year before so and the 

1505
01:37:14,920 --> 01:37:19,080
the wrist injury could certainly
be a part of it, but this is a 

1506
01:37:19,080 --> 01:37:22,960
big fall off. 
Yeah, I mean, I, I, I looked 

1507
01:37:22,960 --> 01:37:29,640
back at his game log with Tua. 
So the game log with Tua this 

1508
01:37:29,640 --> 01:37:32,560
year so far. 
Let me let me go back and pull 

1509
01:37:32,560 --> 01:37:36,040
this up. 
So he has four full games with 

1510
01:37:36,040 --> 01:37:40,080
Tua this season. 
He's averaging 74 1/2 yards and 

1511
01:37:40,080 --> 01:37:44,000
half a touchdown per game. 
So definitely worse than last 

1512
01:37:44,000 --> 01:37:46,800
season, right? 
Like he's he's averaging 

1513
01:37:46,800 --> 01:37:50,920
astronomical numbers last year, 
but it's not such a huge 

1514
01:37:50,920 --> 01:37:54,520
deviation from last year. 
Like he's had three games that 

1515
01:37:54,840 --> 01:37:57,320
for most receivers you would say
are pretty good. 

1516
01:37:57,320 --> 01:38:01,360
Like like 70 something yards, 80
something yards, 130 yards. 

1517
01:38:01,880 --> 01:38:07,920
So he has he has the the one, 
the 12 target 130 yard game in 

1518
01:38:07,920 --> 01:38:11,920
week 1. 
But then other than that, like 

1519
01:38:11,920 --> 01:38:16,320
you have some like OK games like
you're mentioning like 7 yard 

1520
01:38:16,320 --> 01:38:19,640
games. 
And then last week he had the 16

1521
01:38:19,640 --> 01:38:22,160
yard game. 
Yeah, last week was a stinker. 

1522
01:38:23,040 --> 01:38:29,280
Like given given just a 
consistent domination from from 

1523
01:38:29,280 --> 01:38:35,160
Tyreke in in 23 and 22. 
Like this is a stark contrast. 

1524
01:38:35,480 --> 01:38:38,760
Like Stark? 
The the one thing I'll say to 

1525
01:38:38,760 --> 01:38:43,480
add a little bit of context to 
last week's game, if you watch 

1526
01:38:43,480 --> 01:38:47,040
that game, it was one of the 
strangest games. 

1527
01:38:47,240 --> 01:38:50,840
I believe there were like 5 
They're they're. 

1528
01:38:51,200 --> 01:38:54,320
Yeah, there was back-to-back to 
back in turnovers. 

1529
01:38:54,320 --> 01:38:56,440
There was. 
There's no many turnovers, yeah.

1530
01:38:56,520 --> 01:38:59,920
I mean, if you were playing that
Showdown slate, you needed the 

1531
01:38:59,920 --> 01:39:03,120
kickers and you needed defenses 
because that's all that game 

1532
01:39:03,600 --> 01:39:07,680
really was. 
So I mean. 

1533
01:39:07,720 --> 01:39:11,680
It was, but he's not like a 
victim of that circumstance, 

1534
01:39:11,680 --> 01:39:15,880
like he's an active participant.
Yeah, I mean, he's he's not out 

1535
01:39:15,880 --> 01:39:19,560
there throwing the interceptions
or he was not fumbling the ball,

1536
01:39:19,600 --> 01:39:22,520
you know? 
Right, but if he's getting open 

1537
01:39:22,520 --> 01:39:27,000
for easy easy scores like he 
normally does, then why don't 

1538
01:39:27,000 --> 01:39:30,880
they just easy button show deep 
to Tyreek like? 

1539
01:39:32,400 --> 01:39:34,520
So yeah, no, I, I'm, I'm with 
you here. 

1540
01:39:34,520 --> 01:39:38,520
It's definitely a little 
concerning the the wrist injury 

1541
01:39:38,520 --> 01:39:41,720
stuff like only now getting 
brought to our attention. 

1542
01:39:42,480 --> 01:39:49,000
I feel like probably adds like 
it just adds a lot of panic to 

1543
01:39:49,000 --> 01:39:51,520
like the market sentiment on 
Tyreke. 

1544
01:39:52,280 --> 01:39:59,040
And I don't know like the the 
wrist injury, like it's not 

1545
01:39:59,040 --> 01:40:01,400
going to affect his ability to 
get open or run routes like 

1546
01:40:01,400 --> 01:40:04,120
unless the guys out there like 
running on his hands and I'm not

1547
01:40:04,120 --> 01:40:07,240
seeing it like really the only 
thing that he should be 

1548
01:40:07,240 --> 01:40:09,720
concerned about is. 
Is it actually impacting his 

1549
01:40:09,720 --> 01:40:14,320
ability to catch the ball or is 
it shifting the way that the 

1550
01:40:14,320 --> 01:40:17,800
dolphins are using him because 
they don't want him to have to 

1551
01:40:17,800 --> 01:40:22,160
make like deeper down the field 
target or deeper down the field 

1552
01:40:22,160 --> 01:40:25,080
catches because that's harder on
his wrist or something. 

1553
01:40:25,520 --> 01:40:28,640
And and I don't know that's, you
know, just speculating there. 

1554
01:40:28,640 --> 01:40:36,640
But if I, if you made me pick a 
side here on, you know, Tyreke's

1555
01:40:36,640 --> 01:40:39,520
going to be fine versus Tyreke's
not going to be fine. 

1556
01:40:40,480 --> 01:40:43,680
I think I just want to be on the
Tyreke's going to be fine side 

1557
01:40:43,960 --> 01:40:46,760
and and benefit from that when 
the market's wrong. 

1558
01:40:48,400 --> 01:40:49,600
So what? 
Where is he? 

1559
01:40:49,600 --> 01:40:52,400
Yeah, where? 
What's his ADP in in dog bowls 

1560
01:40:52,400 --> 01:40:55,520
right now? 
Yeah, Tyreke goes. 

1561
01:40:56,280 --> 01:40:58,280
So he's 4. 
Because you didn't say to you, 

1562
01:40:58,280 --> 01:41:00,040
you said the market, but you 
meant me, no? 

1563
01:41:00,800 --> 01:41:02,280
No, no, no. 
Architects. 

1564
01:41:02,640 --> 01:41:08,120
No, no, the I mean the market is
like if you're if you're out 

1565
01:41:08,120 --> 01:41:10,000
there in the streets, like 
people are panicking about 

1566
01:41:10,000 --> 01:41:11,720
Tyreke. 
They're like asking like, oh, 

1567
01:41:11,720 --> 01:41:14,000
should I trade Tyreke in my 
season long league? 

1568
01:41:14,000 --> 01:41:18,560
Like people are are legit 
worried about Tyreke, but he's 

1569
01:41:18,560 --> 01:41:22,320
his ADP is 14.5. 
He's going after puka. 

1570
01:41:22,760 --> 01:41:30,280
Him and George Pickens go 
back-to-back, Yeah, I mean. 

1571
01:41:30,800 --> 01:41:34,080
That seems appropriate that that
seems more like, you know this 

1572
01:41:34,080 --> 01:41:37,920
guy hasn't done shit all year 
rather than like a true panic 

1573
01:41:37,920 --> 01:41:41,400
Bryce. 
Yeah, I think I'll probably have

1574
01:41:41,400 --> 01:41:44,600
a lot of Tyreke this week. 
Think if Tyreke and Jawan 

1575
01:41:44,600 --> 01:41:47,000
Jennings are the wide receivers 
that you need this week. 

1576
01:41:47,000 --> 01:41:49,560
I'm going. 
I'm getting a dog Bowl ticket. 

1577
01:41:49,920 --> 01:42:00,520
So what I I, I hope they are. 
All right, the other notes, oh, 

1578
01:42:00,720 --> 01:42:03,240
I just this one, we don't have 
to spend any time on this note 

1579
01:42:03,240 --> 01:42:08,520
just says George Pickens is so 
effing good 'cause he is, I 

1580
01:42:08,520 --> 01:42:13,800
mean, might might be a top five 
NFL receiver right now in my 

1581
01:42:13,800 --> 01:42:19,840
opinion. 
OK, couple quick ones. 

1582
01:42:20,120 --> 01:42:22,920
Josh Downs with Anthony 
Richardson back. 

1583
01:42:22,920 --> 01:42:26,920
I mean, we saw really good stuff
from Josh Downs outside of the 

1584
01:42:26,960 --> 01:42:29,680
very frustrating drop for a walk
in touchdown last week. 

1585
01:42:31,120 --> 01:42:33,920
But he he has looked great. 
But do you think it's a 

1586
01:42:33,920 --> 01:42:36,480
significant downgrade with AR 
back? 

1587
01:42:38,520 --> 01:42:42,840
You know, Flacco's been so bad. 
I, I, I I kind of don't think 

1588
01:42:42,840 --> 01:42:47,120
so. 
I hope you're right. 

1589
01:42:47,280 --> 01:42:50,000
I would really like for Josh 
Downs to keep being good because

1590
01:42:50,000 --> 01:42:54,520
he's a fun player. 
Like it's hard to get like 10 

1591
01:42:54,520 --> 01:42:58,800
targets and put up a bad game 
like 10 targets for 72 yards. 

1592
01:42:59,360 --> 01:43:02,080
That doesn't seem like 
irreplaceable efficiency to me. 

1593
01:43:03,880 --> 01:43:08,240
Yeah, I, I think I am a little 
more pessimistic than you, but 

1594
01:43:08,240 --> 01:43:11,480
I, I'm, I would be so happy to 
be wrong. 

1595
01:43:13,640 --> 01:43:18,760
The other guy I had a note on 
was Terry Mclaurin going against

1596
01:43:18,760 --> 01:43:21,360
the Eagles, who have not been 
great in past coverage. 

1597
01:43:21,360 --> 01:43:24,000
Really. 
The Eagles have like one good DB

1598
01:43:24,240 --> 01:43:31,200
in Couper de Jean and and 
outside of that they leave a lot

1599
01:43:31,200 --> 01:43:34,520
to be desired. 
What do you what do you think 

1600
01:43:34,520 --> 01:43:37,440
about Terry Mclaurin this week 
here against the Eagles tomorrow

1601
01:43:37,440 --> 01:43:45,720
night? 
So I guess just to like think 

1602
01:43:45,720 --> 01:43:51,560
about Terry Mclaurin, he's so 
he's averaging a 23% and targets

1603
01:43:51,560 --> 01:43:57,120
per outrun this year with that 
that's been about 100 area yards

1604
01:43:57,120 --> 01:44:01,920
per game. 
So he's at 23% target Sprite run

1605
01:44:02,520 --> 01:44:09,360
with like a pretty high A dot. 
And with that normally comes 

1606
01:44:09,360 --> 01:44:12,240
kind of like volatile games. 
And and that's kind of what 

1607
01:44:12,240 --> 01:44:18,400
we've seen here where he opened 
the year 17 yards, 22 yards and 

1608
01:44:18,400 --> 01:44:22,120
he hit 100 yards, 52 yards, 112 
yards. 

1609
01:44:23,800 --> 01:44:27,200
In Week 9, he had 19 yards and 
113 yards. 

1610
01:44:27,920 --> 01:44:30,600
So I think what you're getting 
here is kind of like a pretty 

1611
01:44:30,600 --> 01:44:37,600
volatile, pretty volatile play. 
And then we hit, he really hits.

1612
01:44:41,600 --> 01:44:45,160
So I mean, obviously you're 
playing him in season long and 

1613
01:44:45,160 --> 01:44:51,320
all that kind of stuff. 
And then for, for showdown 

1614
01:44:51,320 --> 01:44:56,080
stuff, I, I guess that the way 
to play that kind of volatility 

1615
01:44:56,080 --> 01:44:58,080
is just a bat against the 
market. 

1616
01:44:58,600 --> 01:45:02,480
If the market is just a loading 
up on Terry Mclaurin, I think 

1617
01:45:02,480 --> 01:45:08,280
he's fine to fade. 
If, if, if you're getting a 

1618
01:45:08,280 --> 01:45:10,280
decent price, then then you play
him. 

1619
01:45:11,240 --> 01:45:16,520
And I guess the only way that he
would be low owned would be like

1620
01:45:16,520 --> 01:45:21,360
a high salary, but he's probably
still playable at a high salary 

1621
01:45:21,360 --> 01:45:27,320
if the ownership is low enough. 
Yeah, I'll, I'll tell you 

1622
01:45:27,320 --> 01:45:29,480
tomorrow how much Cherry 
Mclaurin I end up playing. 

1623
01:45:33,040 --> 01:45:36,920
All right, the OK, last one on 
this chart and then we'll we'll 

1624
01:45:36,920 --> 01:45:39,000
bring it on home with the final 
wide receiver chart. 

1625
01:45:39,320 --> 01:45:42,360
So we talked about Jawan 
Jennings, but his teammate Ricky

1626
01:45:42,360 --> 01:45:46,400
Pearsall is also on this chart. 
Granted, he is in the opposite 

1627
01:45:46,400 --> 01:45:49,280
quadrant of Joan Jennings, he's 
in the bottom left quadrant 

1628
01:45:49,280 --> 01:45:52,320
here. 
But who would you rather have 

1629
01:45:52,480 --> 01:45:55,840
rest of season, Ricky Pearsall 
or Joan Jennings? 

1630
01:45:56,680 --> 01:46:00,080
Oh, Joan Jennings like no, no 
question. 00 question. 

1631
01:46:00,480 --> 01:46:04,600
I I. 
I think I'm a noted like I round

1632
01:46:04,600 --> 01:46:08,120
of noted hater for Ricky 
Pearsall where I think he's like

1633
01:46:08,720 --> 01:46:12,600
kind of jaggy and he has the 
first round draft capital, but 

1634
01:46:13,040 --> 01:46:16,760
he's his production is kind of 
Jackie, his usage kind of 

1635
01:46:16,760 --> 01:46:20,720
Jackie. 
So I have AI have a follow up 

1636
01:46:20,720 --> 01:46:23,800
question because I I felt the 
same way as you that it's Jawan 

1637
01:46:23,800 --> 01:46:26,080
Jennings pretty easily over 
Pierce all the rest of the 

1638
01:46:26,080 --> 01:46:28,800
season. 
But what if we were drafting 

1639
01:46:29,160 --> 01:46:34,400
best ball teams today for next? 
Season of the next season. 

1640
01:46:34,560 --> 01:46:36,880
Would you take Jawan Jennings or
would you take Ricky Pierce? 

1641
01:46:36,880 --> 01:46:43,480
All they're back-to-back in this
hypothetical way, way, way, way,

1642
01:46:43,480 --> 01:46:45,040
way too early. 
Basketball, yeah. 

1643
01:46:45,080 --> 01:46:50,400
I mean that that for next season
that feels really close because 

1644
01:46:50,880 --> 01:46:54,080
all the production is so heavily
in favor of Juan Jennings. 

1645
01:46:54,600 --> 01:46:59,640
But then next season is so far 
away that like all these things,

1646
01:46:59,640 --> 01:47:07,560
different things would happen. 
And you probably like you, you 

1647
01:47:07,560 --> 01:47:11,040
can project pure sell high 
higher for next year than you 

1648
01:47:11,040 --> 01:47:13,880
can this year. 
But in terms of like this year, 

1649
01:47:13,880 --> 01:47:17,640
there's a big gap. 
The the college production stuff

1650
01:47:17,720 --> 01:47:20,800
is not that great. 
And you're just hanging on to 

1651
01:47:20,800 --> 01:47:24,080
that first round draft capital, 
which is is very important. 

1652
01:47:24,560 --> 01:47:30,280
But like, the more his NFL 
production matches his his kind 

1653
01:47:30,280 --> 01:47:34,640
of mediocre college production, 
the the less inclined them to 

1654
01:47:34,640 --> 01:47:36,920
give weight to that first round 
Drop capital. 

1655
01:47:38,680 --> 01:47:41,280
Yeah, I think that is very well 
said. 

1656
01:47:41,280 --> 01:47:44,040
And with that, let's move on to 
the final chart. 

1657
01:47:44,440 --> 01:47:47,120
We're going to, we're going to 
safely make it in under 2 hours 

1658
01:47:47,120 --> 01:47:49,760
here, Draco, as long as you 
don't lollygag too much here. 

1659
01:47:51,000 --> 01:47:55,760
So the first guy I had a note on
on this chart is the one the 

1660
01:47:55,800 --> 01:48:01,480
only only bit of cream rising to
the top of this chart of Cedric 

1661
01:48:01,480 --> 01:48:05,920
Tillman. 
He so he had he had the one very

1662
01:48:05,920 --> 01:48:09,560
impressive game where he 
catches, you know, the the big 

1663
01:48:09,560 --> 01:48:13,120
touchdown play. 
Then he has what should have 

1664
01:48:13,120 --> 01:48:16,360
been a pretty poor game, but 
then gets there in garbage time 

1665
01:48:16,360 --> 01:48:20,440
with Jameis before the bye. 
Now coming off the bye. 

1666
01:48:21,200 --> 01:48:24,760
Are you at all interested in 
Tillman against the Saints here?

1667
01:48:24,880 --> 01:48:25,840
Like how do you? 
Yeah. 

1668
01:48:25,920 --> 01:48:28,440
I mean, he's interesting, but 
you're telling me I have to drop

1669
01:48:28,440 --> 01:48:31,360
him ahead of, like, Drake 
London, JSM. 

1670
01:48:31,360 --> 01:48:32,680
Yeah. 
Yes. 

1671
01:48:33,360 --> 01:48:34,760
I don't. 
I don't think that makes any 

1672
01:48:34,760 --> 01:48:35,680
sense. 
What? 

1673
01:48:35,800 --> 01:48:37,600
OK, Cedric Tillman or Jayden 
Reid. 

1674
01:48:41,560 --> 01:48:44,520
That's probably Jayden Reid. 
Yeah, Cedric Tillman or Devante 

1675
01:48:44,520 --> 01:48:48,240
Adams. 
Tillman, Tillman. 

1676
01:48:48,240 --> 01:48:49,040
Really. 
OK. 

1677
01:48:49,880 --> 01:48:53,840
Yeah, well, well, if you look at
their raw target counts, so like

1678
01:48:53,840 --> 01:48:58,120
Devante, he had 13 targets last 
week and Tillman in the last 

1679
01:48:58,120 --> 01:49:00,360
three games is averaging 10 
targets a game. 

1680
01:49:01,240 --> 01:49:10,200
But then his A dot is like 
11/18/12 and like so, so to me 

1681
01:49:10,200 --> 01:49:15,280
that that's a lot friendlier of 
a of a a target profile than 

1682
01:49:15,280 --> 01:49:18,840
what the van. 
Like to me the Devante targets 

1683
01:49:18,920 --> 01:49:24,960
are true old man like 7-8 yard A
dot throws. 

1684
01:49:25,320 --> 01:49:30,640
Like I I, I value this the the 
Tillman sophomore. 

1685
01:49:31,240 --> 01:49:33,720
OK, last one, Tillman or Jawan 
Jennings? 

1686
01:49:36,080 --> 01:49:40,480
And that's, that feels pretty 
close. 

1687
01:49:41,440 --> 01:49:44,160
That feels pretty close. 
Markets way too low on Jennings.

1688
01:49:44,160 --> 01:49:46,680
I mean, if you drafted off ADP, 
you'd literally never. 

1689
01:49:47,080 --> 01:49:50,240
And you had those guys right 
next to each other, you'd never,

1690
01:49:50,240 --> 01:49:55,280
right, go on Jennings. 
So, all right, this guy's an 

1691
01:49:55,280 --> 01:49:57,960
interesting one. 
What do you think of Xavier 

1692
01:49:57,960 --> 01:50:00,760
Leggett with Adam Thielen coming
back? 

1693
01:50:00,760 --> 01:50:02,640
Is it, is it curtains for 
Leggett? 

1694
01:50:03,520 --> 01:50:04,920
How? 
How are you approaching him? 

1695
01:50:07,000 --> 01:50:15,280
So I guess if you're looking at 
the last five games, he's been 

1696
01:50:15,280 --> 01:50:19,400
at an 84% route share. 
Last game is at 96. 

1697
01:50:19,680 --> 01:50:22,720
Given that he's the first round 
rookie, I, I, I don't think he 

1698
01:50:22,720 --> 01:50:27,240
can put that back. 
If you look at his average 

1699
01:50:27,240 --> 01:50:33,680
target spread run, it's been at 
18% and with a couple of spikes 

1700
01:50:33,760 --> 01:50:43,080
in there and it's hard. 
I, I mean, I, I truly don't want

1701
01:50:43,080 --> 01:50:50,280
to give Adam Thielen too much 
respect and but it's a small pie

1702
01:50:50,640 --> 01:50:55,000
and, and if he takes a, a decent
amount of it inefficiently, then

1703
01:50:55,000 --> 01:51:00,520
that does hurt. 
Like I, I that I don't deal him 

1704
01:51:00,520 --> 01:51:02,440
back does make me a little bit 
wary. 

1705
01:51:03,200 --> 01:51:07,560
Like it's, it's always like, 
look at was to actually play him

1706
01:51:07,560 --> 01:51:12,560
was always kind of gross anyway.
And so that additional fly makes

1707
01:51:12,560 --> 01:51:17,880
it just that much more gross. 
Yeah, no, I I pretty much agree 

1708
01:51:17,880 --> 01:51:19,560
with everything that you're 
saying. 

1709
01:51:21,840 --> 01:51:25,800
All right, we can move on to the
last guy, John Mechi. 

1710
01:51:25,920 --> 01:51:32,400
So did not do much for the 
majority of the time that Nico 

1711
01:51:32,400 --> 01:51:37,000
has missed, but finally flashes 
a little bit in this last game 

1712
01:51:37,800 --> 01:51:40,480
that he'll have before Nico 
comes back. 

1713
01:51:41,160 --> 01:51:44,840
Do you think he did enough to 
kind of secure his role as the 

1714
01:51:44,840 --> 01:51:47,600
number 3 receiver in this 
offense with Nico back? 

1715
01:51:47,600 --> 01:51:50,600
Or is Mechi just going to fade 
back into obscurity now? 

1716
01:51:51,560 --> 01:51:53,480
So who? 
Who was the guy that they were 

1717
01:51:53,480 --> 01:51:58,400
playing ahead of him before? 
They had gosh, what is his name?

1718
01:51:58,880 --> 01:52:01,720
Xavier Hutchinson. 
OK. 

1719
01:52:02,520 --> 01:52:09,920
And so he had, I guess he had a 
good game where he had 6 

1720
01:52:09,960 --> 01:52:13,680
targets, 74 yards, and then I 
think he had a touchdown as 

1721
01:52:13,680 --> 01:52:18,480
well. 
And and then Hutchinson has done

1722
01:52:18,480 --> 01:52:23,920
basically nothing. 
Yeah, Hutchinson, basically 

1723
01:52:23,920 --> 01:52:30,640
nothing. 
And I, I, I, I I don't know. 

1724
01:52:31,120 --> 01:52:33,840
I I To be honest, I'm not sure I
care. 

1725
01:52:36,280 --> 01:52:38,960
OK, Yeah. 
These are pretty periphery guys 

1726
01:52:39,720 --> 01:52:42,080
and we pushed even further out 
now. 

1727
01:52:42,760 --> 01:52:44,880
Yeah, that's fair. 
All right. 

1728
01:52:44,880 --> 01:52:47,040
Well, that was the last guy I 
had a note on. 

1729
01:52:47,040 --> 01:52:50,840
Is there anyone else you wanted 
to talk about here before you? 

1730
01:52:53,360 --> 01:52:55,800
Wrap up. 
I'm looking through this chart. 

1731
01:52:56,240 --> 01:52:58,760
No, not really. 
There's nobody here that we we 

1732
01:52:58,760 --> 01:53:01,400
haven't spent them or sorry, I 
don't want to say nobody, but 

1733
01:53:01,400 --> 01:53:04,920
most of the guys that we would 
speak about here, we've spent a 

1734
01:53:05,000 --> 01:53:07,160
decent amount of air time 
discussing already. 

1735
01:53:09,040 --> 01:53:12,760
All right, well, Draco, 
congratulations Sir, we did it. 

1736
01:53:13,480 --> 01:53:17,960
This might be one of the very 
few stat chasing episodes under 

1737
01:53:17,960 --> 01:53:22,440
2 hours. 
Before we go, I do want to plug 

1738
01:53:23,320 --> 01:53:26,600
playoff best ball content over 
at Legendary Upside. 

1739
01:53:26,600 --> 01:53:30,600
It's going to be coming soon. 
We should be seeing some playoff

1740
01:53:30,600 --> 01:53:35,200
best ball contests in the lobby 
at Underdog, but really any day 

1741
01:53:35,200 --> 01:53:39,040
now we're going to have the 
sidekick up and running for 

1742
01:53:39,040 --> 01:53:40,640
those. 
So if you're already subscribed 

1743
01:53:40,640 --> 01:53:44,280
to the sidekick, you'll have 
that ready to rock'n'roll when 

1744
01:53:44,280 --> 01:53:46,520
we've got those contests out in 
the lobby. 

1745
01:53:47,880 --> 01:53:50,520
And then we'll also have some 
written content. 

1746
01:53:50,520 --> 01:53:53,040
We'll be doing some video 
content over on the Leg Up 

1747
01:53:53,040 --> 01:53:55,360
YouTube channel. 
We'll certainly have podcasts 

1748
01:53:55,360 --> 01:53:58,240
and things like that. 
So just make sure you're 

1749
01:53:58,240 --> 01:54:01,240
checking us out for all of your 
playoff baseball content. 

1750
01:54:01,240 --> 01:54:07,120
It is probably my favorite 
format of of fantasy, so 

1751
01:54:07,200 --> 01:54:09,840
definitely would encourage you 
to check that out if you haven't

1752
01:54:09,840 --> 01:54:14,480
played that. 
Before, yeah, agreed and always 

1753
01:54:14,480 --> 01:54:17,720
great content and and A and a 
truly fantastic format. 

1754
01:54:20,360 --> 01:54:24,440
All right, with that, we will 
sign off here and we will see 

1755
01:54:24,440 --> 01:54:28,280
you next week on our typical 
date of Tuesday. 

1756
01:54:29,160 --> 01:54:33,720
Good luck the rest of this week.
See an as See it next week. 

1757
01:54:33,720 --> 01:54:38,720
Everyone on on Tuesday. 
Goodbye.