1 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:17,800 Pete is out tonight. Gretch is out tonight but we are 2 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:23,400 still doing ship chasing except it's an ATP ATP. 3 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:26,100 Chasing ship chasing, take over. Let's do it. 4 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:35,700 Higher. Homo Anita hand job. 5 00:00:35,700 --> 00:00:39,400 Fix your side with your mom are helpful play Chase. 6 00:00:53,100 --> 00:00:54,800 I broke my brain that broke my brain. 7 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:56,700 ATP chasing should chasing take over. 8 00:00:57,300 --> 00:00:58,300 Welcome guys. Sam. 9 00:00:58,300 --> 00:01:00,900 I'm gonna that's it. I'm done hosting. 10 00:01:00,900 --> 00:01:03,000 I'm gonna throw it over to. You are a tea time. 11 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:06,000 Chasing host, and that's a, let's do it. 12 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:09,300 It's a beautiful intro. Yeah, we're chasing. 13 00:01:09,300 --> 00:01:11,400 We're chasing so many things. It's kind of hard to keep track 14 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:13,100 at this point, I'm statues things. 15 00:01:13,100 --> 00:01:16,500 ATP chasing chasing crane. I don't even know what's going 16 00:01:16,500 --> 00:01:20,300 on, but yeah, we're here tonight, we're taking over for 17 00:01:20,300 --> 00:01:23,900 Pete, you know, the The main requirements of being a host on 18 00:01:23,900 --> 00:01:28,800 ship chasing are being a white guy with a blond slightly 19 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:31,300 receding hairline. And, you know, I'm taking over 20 00:01:31,300 --> 00:01:34,100 taking over p and that's might be too full. 21 00:01:34,100 --> 00:01:39,600 Did you Sam? Yeah, the mustache. 22 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:41,400 I don't know. I don't know how that fits into 23 00:01:41,700 --> 00:01:43,200 the criteria. I'll check with peed on that. 24 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:46,500 But yeah. Doing my do my best feet 25 00:01:46,500 --> 00:01:48,400 impression. I'll try my best. 26 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:50,000 No one's. No one's as good as Pete. 27 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:52,000 But yeah. Well, have some fun here. 28 00:01:52,100 --> 00:01:56,700 Tonight, I guess a quick intro to people who maybe are regular 29 00:01:56,700 --> 00:01:59,100 ship chasing guys but aren't aware of ATP. 30 00:01:59,100 --> 00:02:01,800 Chasing. The three of us have been doing 31 00:02:02,100 --> 00:02:06,800 a weekly show Mostly on Fridays throughout the offseason and we 32 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:10,699 basically discussed ADP values, track the market movement. 33 00:02:10,699 --> 00:02:15,500 So that's the overall outline of the show tonight. 34 00:02:15,500 --> 00:02:19,500 But yeah, before we get into that Pat Davis, how are you are 35 00:02:19,500 --> 00:02:23,000 you Wednesday nights going Davis, you're able to Get get a 36 00:02:23,100 --> 00:02:25,900 clearance from from the wife for tonight, or what was, what was 37 00:02:25,900 --> 00:02:28,200 that process? Like, I just don't want to stay 38 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:30,300 up this late, bro. Like, we're gonna be on this. 39 00:02:30,700 --> 00:02:33,200 We're going to be a dude, I go to the gym at 5:00 in the 40 00:02:33,208 --> 00:02:35,900 morning. Like I'm we're I'm, this is 41 00:02:36,100 --> 00:02:38,000 you're throwing. You're throwing my whole week 42 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:40,700 off here, dude. Thank you for coming. 43 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:44,100 Had to do it. I think a good tagline 480p 44 00:02:44,100 --> 00:02:49,100 chasing is ship chasing if the hosts were all virgins, right? 45 00:02:49,100 --> 00:02:52,900 Because it's all, it's all, it's all it was It's all, it's all 46 00:02:52,900 --> 00:02:55,100 ATP. It's all it's all database. 47 00:02:55,100 --> 00:02:58,300 We are graphs and we got charts. It's a teepee. 48 00:02:58,300 --> 00:03:01,800 Chasing is the the ship chasing variant for people who comb 49 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:04,300 through their team's yesterday, trying to figure out which teams 50 00:03:04,300 --> 00:03:06,500 they already had Bangles Chiefs correlated. 51 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:10,700 Yeah. ATP chasing is for when you 52 00:03:10,700 --> 00:03:13,600 watch chip chasing you go, these guys are just football guys. 53 00:03:19,500 --> 00:03:22,000 That's hilarious. How many how many puppies have 54 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:23,600 All done. Are we all ready? 55 00:03:23,900 --> 00:03:25,400 Crane? It's May 10th or you already 56 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:27,800 sick a drafting. I'm not sick of drafting Davis. 57 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:32,300 I was not able to draft very much over like the last 10 days 58 00:03:32,300 --> 00:03:35,200 because I, you know, the NFL draft getting the rankings up on 59 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:37,800 the site, get in the rankings, kind of like dialed in. 60 00:03:38,900 --> 00:03:41,300 Watch this Underdog promo, dealing with, you know, with all 61 00:03:41,300 --> 00:03:45,400 the kind of logistical admin stuff there, blah, blah, blah. 62 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:48,400 And then I was like, I don't have any time to get my the 63 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:49,800 writing done that I want to get done. 64 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:52,000 I had this article came out this morning on Elite tight end. 65 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:55,600 That took me like a fair amount of time to write also because I 66 00:03:55,608 --> 00:03:57,700 didn't plan to write it, I was trying to write a quarterback 67 00:03:57,700 --> 00:03:59,200 article and it morphed into something else. 68 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:01,300 It says that's, that's how I do things. 69 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:05,900 So finally got an article out on the site, first one, a little 70 00:04:05,900 --> 00:04:10,500 while and I drafted all afternoon, I went out in the 71 00:04:10,500 --> 00:04:13,500 beautiful sun, I was doing three puppies at once. 72 00:04:13,500 --> 00:04:16,300 I came back in, just dripping a puppy as it did, some house 73 00:04:16,300 --> 00:04:19,700 stuff, I finished up a puppy seconds before the show went 74 00:04:19,700 --> 00:04:21,700 live. I must have done a dozen 75 00:04:21,700 --> 00:04:23,200 puppies. Today, it was a delight. 76 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:26,900 It's already. This is an I'm already. 77 00:04:26,900 --> 00:04:30,000 I'm already mad about people taking the quarterback when I 78 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:33,600 need them. You know, it happened to me, I 79 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:36,800 was in I was in Chicago this weekend and we were leaving. 80 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:39,800 I'm sitting there getting ready to we actually took the train 81 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:42,900 and I'm sitting there getting ready to go just knocking. 82 00:04:43,100 --> 00:04:49,500 Knocking a puppy out and I start Chase Pollard T and the pic 83 00:04:49,700 --> 00:04:53,500 right after I took tea, someone took Borough and I'm just like 84 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:55,000 Like, what are we doing here, man? 85 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:58,000 And what are we doing here? Yeah. 86 00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:01,600 What do you think May 5th? And I'm losing my mind. 87 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:04,400 What's the plan for that drafter? 88 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:07,700 Like herb Smith and Andre? Yeah, it's know, obviously, you 89 00:05:07,707 --> 00:05:09,800 gotta take you got to take you at the. 90 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:13,300 So you have to take mix and and because, you know, be randomly 91 00:05:13,300 --> 00:05:17,100 Binks the 5 touchdown game and week 17 and you got a big Boyd 92 00:05:17,100 --> 00:05:19,000 and you got to take or Smith. Junior. 93 00:05:19,500 --> 00:05:21,700 So Pete Pete stared a story today. 94 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:24,100 I've been seeing this stream but this A stream. 95 00:05:24,100 --> 00:05:28,300 So, the chat may already have seen this, but he was saying 96 00:05:28,300 --> 00:05:32,500 that on stream, someone Snipes him on Tyler Conklin. 97 00:05:33,900 --> 00:05:37,200 When is Paul? Yeah, 20 picks ahead of ATP. 98 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:42,100 He had Rogers, I assume. And the guy who's sniped, him, 99 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:47,700 took him because he had Justin Herbert and they play the NFC 100 00:05:47,700 --> 00:05:51,200 East. So he knew our the AFC East - 101 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:57,500 Sophia He knew there's not even a, there's a chance to play in 102 00:05:57,500 --> 00:06:02,200 week, 3 Christmas. Small cancers might be a week 103 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:05,800 17. Yeah, it was Paul the you guys 104 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:09,300 got to watch the stream because Pete has an all-time meltdown 105 00:06:09,300 --> 00:06:11,900 and lashes out at Paul, who's a great member of the Discord. 106 00:06:11,900 --> 00:06:13,200 Like I think he's shipped a bunch of. 107 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:16,700 Yeah, that's Paul stuff really smart guy, but it was the 108 00:06:16,700 --> 00:06:21,400 biggest like may your brain is broken from thinking about week. 109 00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:25,100 17 way too much moaning. Anything that didn't get 110 00:06:25,100 --> 00:06:29,500 mentioned on stream and I was watching, is this Choice was 111 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:32,700 Michael Mayer. He was the highest I done by ATP 112 00:06:32,700 --> 00:06:35,600 and the Raiders and the charges are in the same division, right? 113 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:38,500 I'm I'm not wrong about that. Literally certainly a decent 114 00:06:38,500 --> 00:06:40,900 chance because we know the Chiefs are playing The Bangles a 115 00:06:40,900 --> 00:06:50,700 certain chance you would say yes with that schedule thing. 116 00:06:50,700 --> 00:06:57,500 So we love you Paul but Your brain is probably older up and I 117 00:06:57,500 --> 00:07:00,600 mean I think all of our brains are irrevocably broken at this 118 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:03,100 point honestly. Like it's just there's no, 119 00:07:03,100 --> 00:07:05,600 there's no going back. Well, should we talk about the 120 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:07,700 Chiefs in the Bangles real quick because we want to talk about 121 00:07:07,700 --> 00:07:09,800 GDP ships? I mean, that was, that was like 122 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:12,900 my first inkling. They like what we have. 123 00:07:12,900 --> 00:07:15,000 So far ahead of ATP. Did tributaries. 124 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:18,000 Tony go today, like 1015 picks. Oh God. 125 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:19,900 I, you know what? I didn't even see his name. 126 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:21,800 He must have been going so early. 127 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:25,800 So I same thing happened to me. I Yeah, I had a two times. 128 00:07:25,900 --> 00:07:28,000 I had him starred. Ready to pick him and he was 129 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:29,900 gone. Wow. 130 00:07:32,100 --> 00:07:34,900 But it is kind of wild because like just that one game being 131 00:07:34,900 --> 00:07:38,600 released It's like already shaken up ATP. 132 00:07:38,900 --> 00:07:42,700 So, you know, when we when we get the others 16 or whatever, 133 00:07:42,700 --> 00:07:47,600 you know, yeah. 15 my biggest reaction from it was like, I've 134 00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:51,800 been playing the cubies as if I'm homes, is got a fall man? 135 00:07:51,900 --> 00:07:54,800 But he's not falling past the chased Raptor at the the two 136 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:57,300 three turn. Like, I don't, if people are 137 00:07:57,300 --> 00:08:01,100 thinking about week 17 as much has, I'm thinking they are, I 138 00:08:01,100 --> 00:08:05,600 don't think Mahomes ATP can really fall much now with with 139 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:07,600 Chase. Is there sort of as the stopgap 140 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:09,100 for teams, doing that correlation. 141 00:08:09,100 --> 00:08:12,500 So, you know, maybe he's still can fall into the mid third, 142 00:08:12,500 --> 00:08:15,300 like, I originally thought, but I think really like it's going 143 00:08:15,300 --> 00:08:17,300 to be interesting. Once all these schedules, come 144 00:08:17,300 --> 00:08:22,300 out to really see how like that type of impact can sort of, Sapa 145 00:08:22,300 --> 00:08:27,600 players ADP slide or arise them up so, well, keep in mind that 146 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:32,000 the, by the time people who are not really drafting on, you 147 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:35,900 know, Twitter memes, week, 17 memes, come into the pool, the 148 00:08:36,100 --> 00:08:38,000 BP is going to be so baked, you know. 149 00:08:38,500 --> 00:08:40,500 Yeah. Like by the time August gets 150 00:08:40,500 --> 00:08:43,100 here, these are these are going to be set in stone. 151 00:08:43,100 --> 00:08:45,900 That is a powerful force of inertia to try and move. 152 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:48,700 Hmm. I guess although it doesn't it 153 00:08:48,700 --> 00:08:51,700 wouldn't it kick out some of the old stuff like, isn't it 154 00:08:51,700 --> 00:08:53,900 rolling? No. 155 00:08:53,900 --> 00:08:56,900 No, I'm not saying I'm not saying the ADP in and of itself 156 00:08:56,900 --> 00:08:59,900 is, oh, you're just saying this - also anchored to it. 157 00:08:59,900 --> 00:09:02,200 People are by yeah. But we're just gonna be like, 158 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:04,200 oh, I take this guy at this pick every single time. 159 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:06,400 I know. Like, by the time, I Five picks 160 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:08,500 into a draft. I can basically fill the rest of 161 00:09:08,500 --> 00:09:11,400 it out, I can color by numbers by that's that's so true. 162 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:15,400 I also have started to wonder if the quarterbacks won't stick 163 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:17,300 kind of where they're at or roughly. 164 00:09:17,300 --> 00:09:20,000 Maybe I maybe they'll follow the two three turn, but stay there. 165 00:09:22,500 --> 00:09:25,300 Yeah, we wonderful. Get we might as well get into it 166 00:09:25,300 --> 00:09:26,200 now. Yeah. 167 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:27,200 Yeah. Let's pull it up. 168 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:29,100 So we did this exercise. We're going to start talking 169 00:09:29,100 --> 00:09:32,100 about it so let's pull it up before. 170 00:09:32,100 --> 00:09:34,800 Before I show the chart, I want to like anchor people. 171 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:37,600 And what we tried to do here, These are not like we did not 172 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:42,000 try to rank players 1 through 36, Pat Davis, and I tried to 173 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:45,700 give our best estimate of where we think the best ball Market is 174 00:09:45,700 --> 00:09:50,200 going to be on rounds 1 through 3 in September when best Molina 175 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:52,700 closes. So, again, not our rankings. 176 00:09:52,700 --> 00:09:55,800 This is like probably obviously biased by what we think and what 177 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:58,900 our rankings are but more. So this is what we think is 178 00:09:58,900 --> 00:10:01,400 going to happen. Once all the Casual drafters 179 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:03,500 enter the pool. Once we get all the, you know, 180 00:10:03,508 --> 00:10:05,600 August Camp storylines, what's all that stuff? 181 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:08,500 Opens your sort of the median ATP. 182 00:10:08,500 --> 00:10:14,000 So I got patent Davis's ranks and I averaged it with mine and 183 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:18,600 we got this draft board here. I'd like to raise T, Higgins, 184 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:22,300 who just went 17 because it's because someone had to pair them 185 00:10:22,300 --> 00:10:24,800 with Kelsey. I would, I would, I would also, 186 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:27,500 I would also like to, I would also like to do that. 187 00:10:27,700 --> 00:10:28,900 Yeah. Alright, that closing line, 188 00:10:28,900 --> 00:10:31,600 Auntie. Higgins is just wrong Weebly. 189 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:34,600 Yeah, this was before. Yeah, the the schedule. 190 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:38,200 Got a nice butt. I don't know, like it's a 191 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:40,100 one-day thing, it's a one-day thing. 192 00:10:40,100 --> 00:10:43,600 I just I just want to start this discussion here, you guys don't 193 00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:47,200 get fantasy football at all. If you think Junior Gibbs is not 194 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:50,600 going to go in the second round, like there's a real chance like 195 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:53,100 it's just the way Fantasy Football goes, dude. 196 00:10:54,100 --> 00:10:56,200 Hmm, I don't know. Bruce Hall was going in like the 197 00:10:56,200 --> 00:10:59,100 fourth and fifth round last year he played for the Jets. 198 00:10:59,100 --> 00:11:01,100 Everyone thought they were a joke, everyone thought they were 199 00:11:01,100 --> 00:11:03,100 going to stink, Everyone likes the Lions. 200 00:11:03,300 --> 00:11:06,200 Everyone like the Lions, but no one thinks Gibbs is like their 201 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:12,000 early down running back. Yeah, let's go to the Gibbs. 202 00:11:12,500 --> 00:11:15,200 I want to like set the scene a little bit before we get to 203 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:18,400 gives I think. Like let's talk about this board 204 00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:23,500 from a macro level are sort of consensus agreement like we have 205 00:11:23,500 --> 00:11:25,600 a lot of individual disagreements but our consensus 206 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:28,400 agreement. Largely was there's a handful of 207 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:32,100 running backs going at the two three turn that are under priced 208 00:11:32,100 --> 00:11:35,200 or maybe the third round and that's Josh Jacobs briefs all 209 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:41,200 Tony Pollard. Ramon Dre we Like on average had 210 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:46,000 those guys jumping up, five, six, seven spots, and that's 211 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:47,900 sort of what I've been arguing this whole time. 212 00:11:47,900 --> 00:11:49,900 My personal rankings. I also think those guys are 213 00:11:49,908 --> 00:11:52,900 undervalued, but even if you, you know, are someone who 214 00:11:52,900 --> 00:11:54,800 doesn't think those guys are undervalued, it difference 215 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:56,200 between thinking, they're undervalued in that. 216 00:11:56,200 --> 00:11:59,900 They're going to rise in price though, exactly the same things. 217 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:04,400 Exactly. I'm I'm, I am but I know those 218 00:12:04,900 --> 00:12:07,500 like, I think so. Yeah, I'm a little bit of both 219 00:12:07,500 --> 00:12:09,800 but I think And there is kind of this. 220 00:12:10,700 --> 00:12:13,800 I'm already pushing back on one of the conclusions, so, keep 221 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:16,700 going. Okay, I'm just saying Pat the 222 00:12:16,700 --> 00:12:20,100 point I'm trying to make is even if you are someone who says, 223 00:12:20,100 --> 00:12:21,900 like, I'm guessing, this is kind of where you're coming from. 224 00:12:21,900 --> 00:12:23,700 You're saying, I think they'll rise in price. 225 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:26,100 I don't really think they're necessarily massively 226 00:12:26,100 --> 00:12:29,300 undervalued. I still think that means, If 227 00:12:29,300 --> 00:12:32,600 you're sort of taking a portfolio based approach to 228 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:35,400 drafting, you should be getting your wide receiver running back 229 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:37,600 running back starts in now, because you're not going to be 230 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:41,000 able to get The Justin Jefferson Nick Chubb. 231 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:44,100 Tony Pollard start in August, you're not gonna be able to get 232 00:12:44,100 --> 00:12:47,900 the Jamar chase. You know Josh Jacobs from Andre 233 00:12:47,900 --> 00:12:51,100 start in August so if you're trying to take a diversified 234 00:12:51,100 --> 00:12:53,700 portfolio and you just want a little bit of those types of 235 00:12:53,700 --> 00:12:57,200 teams like I don't see any argument for not going pretty 236 00:12:57,200 --> 00:12:59,600 heavy on that. Now assuming you're taking you 237 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:03,200 know you're drafting 25 teams or so in in May June. 238 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:06,800 So that's why argument so for this exercise I don't know if 239 00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:09,200 you guys have had this but just just running back. 240 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:14,000 Get so full of guys I absolutely do not want to click on and I am 241 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:15,900 going to assume that other people are going to feel the 242 00:13:15,900 --> 00:13:19,600 same way which is over time going to lead to the running 243 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:21,100 backs. The people do feel comfortable 244 00:13:21,100 --> 00:13:23,100 clicking on rising up the bullet. 245 00:13:23,100 --> 00:13:24,900 What back part of the draft. Are you talking about? 246 00:13:25,100 --> 00:13:28,100 So I'm talking about the Aaron Jones. 247 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:32,000 Dalvin cook. Yeah, Joe Mixon just like you 248 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:35,400 just do not want to be like it's just not for took Mixon today. 249 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:38,700 This is kind of outside the scope but I took mixing And I 250 00:13:38,708 --> 00:13:43,800 have to say, mixing is actually kind of nice to have drafted 251 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:46,500 because then you go. Are you either have like a guy 252 00:13:46,500 --> 00:13:49,900 who's like a third round? They just probably if he's the 253 00:13:49,900 --> 00:13:51,500 guy, there's probably about the same values. 254 00:13:51,500 --> 00:13:53,900 ET are on a different team or different. 255 00:13:53,900 --> 00:13:56,300 But let's say he's not, let's say he's on the Bengals and he's 256 00:13:56,300 --> 00:13:58,400 the guy, you're not a perfect pick is probably the third or 257 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:00,700 fourth round value. Like, I think the fact that they 258 00:14:00,700 --> 00:14:03,100 like, don't like him, and we're playing some eyes appear on 259 00:14:03,100 --> 00:14:07,000 ahead of him at times was, you know, as a concern, but I don't 260 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:10,700 think he's like dust. And he's on the Bangles pesos. 261 00:14:10,700 --> 00:14:14,100 ATP is not representative of what his expected production is. 262 00:14:14,100 --> 00:14:16,800 It's binary. Yeah, it's based on the cloud 263 00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:18,500 hanging over him. So then you go. 264 00:14:18,500 --> 00:14:22,400 Okay, well, if I have him and in this case, I forget which early 265 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:24,400 running back, I had him with might have been Bruce Hall, 266 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:27,400 might have been, you know, reminder a something like that. 267 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:32,200 So I'm like, I've got I've got like two legit. 268 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:34,900 Like, I want running back running back almost so that 269 00:14:34,900 --> 00:14:36,600 clay, then I built the rest of the team like running back 270 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:39,100 running back. So I'll give Vile give mixing a 271 00:14:39,108 --> 00:14:42,600 little love their because it's like either the team's dead or 272 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:46,200 you can build a pretty unique structure that gives him like 273 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:47,800 basically third-round draft capital. 274 00:14:49,100 --> 00:14:50,600 I like that. That makes sense. 275 00:14:52,700 --> 00:14:55,300 Cool. Well let's get into some of our 276 00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:57,300 disagree. I guess like the other macro 277 00:14:57,300 --> 00:15:02,000 thing I'll point out here is we are consensus is we don't have 278 00:15:02,100 --> 00:15:05,000 that second round group of quarterbacks really sliding. 279 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:08,300 I think maybe a couple spots where there's yeah. 280 00:15:08,300 --> 00:15:11,700 Josh Allen is the one that. So this is my take on the 281 00:15:11,708 --> 00:15:14,000 quarterbacks and this is supermicro. 282 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:18,000 Josh Allen has the highest potential to slide because he 283 00:15:18,100 --> 00:15:20,700 Doesn't have the stacking partner stopping and gas 284 00:15:20,700 --> 00:15:23,700 lighting. Jalen hurd's has both AJ Brown 285 00:15:23,700 --> 00:15:25,900 and devaugntah and both sides of the draft board. 286 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,800 It's going to be really fucking hard for Jalen hurd's to slide. 287 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:32,300 Now Mahomes has Kelsey on one side and Jamar chasing T Higgins 288 00:15:32,300 --> 00:15:35,500 and the other for the the bring back sacks, he's not going to 289 00:15:35,508 --> 00:15:38,100 slide. I think if one guy does slide, 290 00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:42,400 it's if the Bills play the Patriots and week 17, and Josh 291 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:45,700 Alan, maybe slides closer to that third rounds to Van Dyck. 292 00:15:45,700 --> 00:15:48,000 You see that group? That's like possible. 293 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:51,200 That's not because I think hurts and homes are better than Alan. 294 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:55,000 Just purely like a correlational like line of these guys up take, 295 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:58,100 so that that's where the quarterback stand. 296 00:15:58,100 --> 00:16:02,000 But let's talk. Quarterbacks first Like Pat, do 297 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:04,700 you think we got it right here with our average takes like do 298 00:16:04,700 --> 00:16:07,500 you feel actually now that these guys aren't going to slide? 299 00:16:07,500 --> 00:16:10,100 I know like previously you said you think these guys might slide 300 00:16:10,100 --> 00:16:13,600 to the third round or something? Yeah, I think one thing I try to 301 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:16,300 keep in mind is like what I want to have happen. 302 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:18,700 Versus what I'm predicting will happen and I want these 303 00:16:18,700 --> 00:16:21,900 quarterbacks to slide and I was like starting to get like really 304 00:16:21,900 --> 00:16:26,900 like take lock that they would slide and I just like They're 305 00:16:26,900 --> 00:16:29,800 probably not going to slide like I want it too much. 306 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:33,900 So my thing and I'm going to be putting some out on legendary 307 00:16:33,900 --> 00:16:38,400 upside about kind of an idea of how to go in and Target these 308 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:42,200 quarterbacks at the high end, you know kind of trying to pair 309 00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:45,200 some structures with these Elite. 310 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:47,600 Quarterbacks that might make it a little bit more unique a 311 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:51,500 little bit more palatable to go get these guys at prices if 312 00:16:51,500 --> 00:16:54,200 they're kind of you're having sticker shock the same way I am 313 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:59,300 but Yeah, I think I think we're going to have to probably 314 00:17:00,100 --> 00:17:03,700 proceed, like they're not going to slide a ton. 315 00:17:04,099 --> 00:17:08,099 I guess I could see, I could see I could see my home's. 316 00:17:08,099 --> 00:17:15,200 Going at the two three turn. And that inertia is so hard to 317 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:16,900 do. Because you know that's so many 318 00:17:16,900 --> 00:17:20,200 drafts wear the clothes to dry after the Kelsey drafters not 319 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:20,900 passing. Yeah. 320 00:17:20,900 --> 00:17:24,900 So it's almost like how far it is a landslide because if Alan 321 00:17:24,900 --> 00:17:30,500 slides down into the Third And then, like, the hurts drafted, 322 00:17:30,500 --> 00:17:32,700 the agent Brown drafters not gonna want to take hurts in the 323 00:17:32,700 --> 00:17:34,500 second. The mid s knowing the Alan's 324 00:17:34,500 --> 00:17:36,400 going, the third. So then he starts to pass and 325 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:40,000 then then maybe, you know, so everyone starts to come down a 326 00:17:40,008 --> 00:17:43,600 little bit but I'm almost seeing the opposite where Lamar Jackson 327 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:46,000 is coming up closer to the two three turn. 328 00:17:46,500 --> 00:17:48,700 So it's almost like someone's coming up to meet these guys as 329 00:17:48,700 --> 00:17:50,800 opposed to, they're going down to me because people are going 330 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,000 to want to take. If the people are people might 331 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:56,100 start taking them are over Josh Allen so they can double tap 332 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:57,500 Lamar. RN Andrews. 333 00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:00,100 I did that today in a pub me because I was like, this isn't 334 00:18:00,100 --> 00:18:01,800 going to change in the next whatever. 335 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:04,600 So I might as well, I took Andrews first because I was like 336 00:18:04,900 --> 00:18:08,300 I'd rather have I'd rather just grabbing Andrews but then Lamar 337 00:18:08,300 --> 00:18:11,900 I got him and I think it was like CMC that's actually pretty 338 00:18:11,900 --> 00:18:13,600 fun. I didn't I had to pound wide 339 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:16,400 receivers for the next few rounds but I could also see 340 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:20,000 Fields falling tube just because I think we're all sort of an 341 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:24,100 agreement that the quarterback ATP just doesn't just doesn't 342 00:18:24,100 --> 00:18:27,800 jive right for whatever reason, just feels Is kind of wrong and 343 00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:30,500 Fields, doesn't have the natural, stacking partner there. 344 00:18:30,900 --> 00:18:32,600 Yeah. And I could see more, I could 345 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:35,900 see more sliding to the start of the fifth. 346 00:18:35,900 --> 00:18:38,800 I think there's a lot of fun from world will fall, when 347 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:41,300 projected a flood from you TR and those type of guys are more. 348 00:18:41,300 --> 00:18:44,400 So he falls to the fifth that I Can See Fields falling to the 349 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:47,400 late 4th, I can see that it's hard. 350 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:49,700 It's just so much harder with. I mean we talk about Alan 351 00:18:49,700 --> 00:18:53,300 falling, but again like I'd say the absolute floor that these 352 00:18:53,300 --> 00:18:55,400 guys fall is the mid third, right? 353 00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:58,800 Like I think it's Spalding fall farther than I agree. - I agree 354 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:01,200 Alan goes at 38 to pair with digs. 355 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:04,000 I think that's his floor. The homes goes at 37 to pair 356 00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,200 with. Kelsey, that's his floor hurts 357 00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:08,200 goes at 3:10 to pair with brown floor. 358 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:11,200 Like, no chance that AJ Brown drafters Paso. 359 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:13,600 No one's no. One's at the three, four, turn 360 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:15,200 going. I'll push and see if I get hurt. 361 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:17,500 Yeah, the back like now you just grab hurts. 362 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:19,200 No tarimov. Yeah. 363 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:22,400 So that's the thing, it's like if we're talking about like, a 364 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:27,200 maximum full round like fall, like sure, Sure, I'm with you, 365 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:30,000 Pat, I'm rooting for these guys to fall, like I would love to be 366 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:33,600 able to take Pollard Ramon. Dre briefs over these guys and 367 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:37,600 still get them in the mid third, probably probably not going to 368 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:39,600 happen, even if it does. It's not going to be some kind 369 00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:43,300 of like, massive, massive fall. So like I'm starting to I'm 370 00:19:43,300 --> 00:19:45,500 starting to like, think about, like, it sounds like you're 371 00:19:45,500 --> 00:19:47,300 doing with write an article like I'm starting to think about. 372 00:19:47,300 --> 00:19:50,900 Okay, I can't tell myself this story of fit, they're gonna fall 373 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,400 later in the summer, I'll get them then like I've kind of been 374 00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:55,400 lying to myself with that. So I gotta start thinking about 375 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,400 how I'm actually going to These guys, which I don't, I honestly 376 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:00,700 don't have fully figured out yet, but certainly something I'm 377 00:20:00,700 --> 00:20:02,200 thinking about. I think they might, they might 378 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:04,000 fit better with zero running back starts. 379 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:09,100 Then the, I mean, they certainly would fit with any start. 380 00:20:09,100 --> 00:20:12,100 But like, what I was thinking, is the same way. 381 00:20:12,100 --> 00:20:15,600 Like I thought running back running back starts fit, nicely 382 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:18,800 with three wide receiver. Sorry, three quarterback bills. 383 00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:23,900 Last year, the reason I thought that is because I was noticing 384 00:20:23,900 --> 00:20:26,400 that if you're going to go three quarterback, you don't want to 385 00:20:26,500 --> 00:20:28,200 Push it too far. You still want to get guys? 386 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:30,400 Got a little bit of upside. They can help you in the 387 00:20:30,408 --> 00:20:33,700 playoffs and everything. So if you're going running back 388 00:20:33,700 --> 00:20:36,300 running back, then you don't need to worry about running back 389 00:20:36,300 --> 00:20:38,300 in that kind of classic 0 running back range. 390 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:40,500 As much. If you grab one guy, you don't 391 00:20:40,500 --> 00:20:42,900 need to grab a, you know, you can grab one and be done. 392 00:20:43,700 --> 00:20:46,400 So those strategies kind of paired nicely. 393 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,300 And I think the same things happening here in the reverse 394 00:20:49,300 --> 00:20:51,700 where if you grab an elite quarterback. 395 00:20:52,900 --> 00:20:54,600 Then you can punt quarterback too. 396 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:59,100 Like you can like if you have like hurts, you could like, do a 397 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:04,200 Nico Collins Schultz, Stroud thing, you know, a Mingo Bryce 398 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:07,000 young, like you just need a guys gonna, like fill in for a couple 399 00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,500 weeks here and there. Yeah, cover your bye week. 400 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:11,400 You've already made the bet that hurts. 401 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,800 It, the guys who's going to win, you the money in the playoffs. 402 00:21:14,500 --> 00:21:17,400 And so punting that pick out of that, like kind of juicier 403 00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:20,100 running back range. Actually think it sets you up 404 00:21:20,100 --> 00:21:22,500 nice really nicely for 40 running back. 405 00:21:22,900 --> 00:21:26,300 So it's like one of us. I'm going to be going to be 406 00:21:26,300 --> 00:21:28,600 writing up. Then make sense, let's get back 407 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:31,600 to it. Like some of our our 408 00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:35,700 disagreements here and I'll quickly read off like for the 409 00:21:35,708 --> 00:21:38,000 audio listeners. I promised peed on service you 410 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:39,900 guys. The biggest closing line values 411 00:21:39,900 --> 00:21:45,000 we're seeing in terms of our predicted a DP versus now is 412 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:49,200 Josh Jacobs res Hall. Tony Pollard, mm Gibbs from 413 00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:52,500 Andre Mark Andrews so Kwan and bees. 414 00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:54,000 Jean. So all running backs, Mark 415 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:57,500 Andrews, our biggest closing line losses that were predicting 416 00:21:57,900 --> 00:22:02,800 Metcalf, a law of a Derrick Henry Josh Allen, Jalen waddle, 417 00:22:03,100 --> 00:22:05,900 Jalen hurts, T Higgins. So just wanted to give that 418 00:22:05,900 --> 00:22:08,000 quickly Dottie listeners. Let's get into our 419 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,200 disagreements. We started with Gibbs Davis and 420 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:13,300 want to cut you off there. What's your case for? 421 00:22:13,300 --> 00:22:16,200 You have Gibbs as the highest of the three of us at ABC 7? 422 00:22:16,500 --> 00:22:19,200 What's this is? This is just classic fantasy 423 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:21,200 football. This is just I've seen this 424 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:24,000 story a million times. The rookie. 425 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:25,900 He's gonna look sick and training camp. 426 00:22:25,900 --> 00:22:27,400 The coaches are going to love him. 427 00:22:28,300 --> 00:22:30,700 It's just and people, love rookies. 428 00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:34,700 People, love past catching running backs, like all this 429 00:22:34,700 --> 00:22:37,200 stuff. Everyone's going to bring up the 430 00:22:37,300 --> 00:22:40,400 the high-value touches that DeAndre Swift got and they're 431 00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:43,500 going to be like what if the coach is like Jameer Gibbs and 432 00:22:43,500 --> 00:22:49,100 he's in a 60/40 instead of a 40 60 and it just I can I close my 433 00:22:49,100 --> 00:22:52,800 eyes and seen it all play out so perfectly and Mom. 434 00:22:52,900 --> 00:22:54,500 Gummer. He's a DP will fall a little 435 00:22:54,500 --> 00:22:56,500 bit, gives his will rise a little bit. 436 00:22:56,500 --> 00:22:59,400 Also think goff's ATP will correspondingly go up. 437 00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:02,600 I just think there's just going to be Lions Pub like if they're 438 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:05,600 just going to be one of those teams this offseason that gets 439 00:23:05,900 --> 00:23:09,400 the pub, I can see that. Yeah it just it just feels it 440 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:13,000 feels like we already have like wrote of his articles about like 441 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:16,400 Junior Gibbs is the highest upside player at every Fantasy 442 00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:19,600 Draft. Like it just it it is what it 443 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,400 is. I do not want to get the devil's 444 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:24,500 advocate. Like Davis making good points 445 00:23:24,500 --> 00:23:26,300 and maybe suede you a little bit, but you want to give the 446 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:30,500 fog on Gibbs. Little not not all the 447 00:23:30,500 --> 00:23:34,700 Industries on board and I think they have legitimate push back, 448 00:23:34,700 --> 00:23:37,000 you know. And even I'm like a big Gibbs 449 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,800 guy for dynasty, but I've been saying the whole time, like, 450 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:42,900 hey, if I take Gibbs I'm almost treating it. 451 00:23:42,900 --> 00:23:45,500 Like, he's my like, sixth-round pick. 452 00:23:45,500 --> 00:23:48,600 Like I like flip picks and I'm like, I'm trying, I'm trying to 453 00:23:48,608 --> 00:23:52,300 go get like a Brian Robinson or someone who's like super boring 454 00:23:52,300 --> 00:23:54,700 that's just going to Help. Get me points at running back 455 00:23:54,700 --> 00:23:58,900 because I've taken like a flyer pick in the third round, because 456 00:23:58,900 --> 00:24:00,900 I don't think gives is going to add much early in the season. 457 00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:04,200 He's 199 pounds. He's going to be playing like 458 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:06,100 the Swift role. We know they are going to be 459 00:24:06,100 --> 00:24:09,300 running a committee like you're not going to nor should they 460 00:24:09,300 --> 00:24:10,400 really hand? This guy. 461 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,500 The job as a rookie and undersized guy, kind of more of 462 00:24:13,500 --> 00:24:16,400 a passing down guy. I think down the line, he could 463 00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,900 be a fantasy Superstar and potentially by the end of this 464 00:24:18,900 --> 00:24:23,200 season, but I do think that people are going to be Pointing 465 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:27,100 out all along the way in terms of his rise like Hey we're not 466 00:24:27,100 --> 00:24:31,900 projecting him to play more than 50% of the snaps and he's 199 467 00:24:31,900 --> 00:24:34,100 pounds. What's he's going on between the 468 00:24:34,100 --> 00:24:35,700 tackle? Yeah, he's not going to get goal 469 00:24:35,700 --> 00:24:37,200 line, such as Montgomery's there. 470 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:38,900 Who does everything Montgomery has sighs. 471 00:24:38,900 --> 00:24:40,700 He's shown, he can play in all facets of the game. 472 00:24:40,700 --> 00:24:43,500 They paid him a lot of money that counter narrative is going 473 00:24:43,500 --> 00:24:44,900 to exist. They paid him a lot of money and 474 00:24:44,900 --> 00:24:47,200 then they took Gibbs 12th overall. 475 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,300 Like, I mean, look, I'm not drafting a lot of Dave 476 00:24:50,300 --> 00:24:52,700 Montgomery. I'm just saying, I think I am. 477 00:24:52,900 --> 00:24:55,900 Just it's going to be one of the most phenomenal things when I 478 00:24:55,900 --> 00:24:59,300 whoever the Lions play week, one when David Montgomery gets 21 479 00:24:59,300 --> 00:25:03,000 carries for 83 yards and a one-yard touchdown and you here 480 00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:07,200 Gibbs has three carries for 18 yards in one catch for 15 yards 481 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:09,500 like pydev. I am their minds, here's what 482 00:25:09,500 --> 00:25:12,600 I'll say, you know, listen David Montgomery people out there, 483 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:16,800 wrote a pat famously, a David Montgomery Guy, where I 484 00:25:16,808 --> 00:25:18,700 appreciate the pushback that you're going to do in draft 485 00:25:18,700 --> 00:25:20,900 season but don't Victory lap Montgomery. 486 00:25:20,900 --> 00:25:24,100 After week one, you're gonna give it But a little more time. 487 00:25:24,500 --> 00:25:27,800 Yeah, yeah. Well, I think actually the best 488 00:25:27,900 --> 00:25:32,300 King King coldly cochlea robbed in the chat that this is. 489 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,300 This is probably the best answer here. 490 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,000 I don't think drafter, I don't think DraftKings is gonna make 491 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,700 you pay a higher price for getting cheaper. 492 00:25:39,900 --> 00:25:42,200 He'll be probably be cheaper because all the sickos are on 493 00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,100 Underdog. Even though it's happy PR if 494 00:25:44,100 --> 00:25:47,900 Gibbs hits in a big way, the leverage he's gonna provide you 495 00:25:47,900 --> 00:25:50,700 is going to be much bigger and a full PPR site than happy PR 496 00:25:50,700 --> 00:25:53,600 sites, so I think honestly like it sounds Good cop out, but I 497 00:25:53,608 --> 00:25:56,000 think this is like close to the optimal way to play it. 498 00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:59,600 Like, go to drafters, go to DK. Get that third round, fourth 499 00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,700 round Gibbs, probably fade them a little bit and Underdog. 500 00:26:02,700 --> 00:26:04,500 I think that's going to be my Approach. 501 00:26:04,500 --> 00:26:07,200 I guess we're Davis is going I think I will right now. 502 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,600 I'm still taking them. I got three. 503 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:11,900 Four, I'm not even trying to make 36. 504 00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:14,100 Yeah, I'm not even saying he should be ranked there. 505 00:26:14,100 --> 00:26:17,200 I just know fantasy football, drafters sure they can't help 506 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:20,200 themselves. Yeah, I do think he will get 507 00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:22,300 like, you're already seeing a little bit Davis. 508 00:26:22,300 --> 00:26:24,200 You're right then. At some point this summer, he's 509 00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,200 going to Surge to like, 28, people are going to be like what 510 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,300 the fuck's going on and then I think will probably fall back 511 00:26:29,300 --> 00:26:31,400 down, but none of that's gonna happen. 512 00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:34,800 Meme Sky more to the eighth round and we're saying, Jameer 513 00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:37,300 Gibbs can't be a late second round pick. 514 00:26:37,300 --> 00:26:40,600 Like, I don't believe it if it's not, the Lions weren't so nuts, 515 00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:42,900 and he went to the chief, so then I would believe it, but 516 00:26:42,900 --> 00:26:45,500 alone, and when he'd be a first-round pick, right? 517 00:26:45,500 --> 00:26:48,600 If they take, if they give you a first round, pick Woody. 518 00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:52,400 Jonathan Taylor. Jonathan Taylor on the Colts are 519 00:26:52,500 --> 00:26:55,800 Jameer Gibbs on the Chiefs, ha ha. 520 00:26:56,500 --> 00:27:00,100 That's it gives yeah, actually not that hard because they did. 521 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,800 Yeah, fuck all your right. But let's talk. 522 00:27:05,300 --> 00:27:09,400 Let's move on to Derek Henry. Davis didn't even rank. 523 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,900 Derrick, Henry in the top three rounds, which I thought it was 524 00:27:11,900 --> 00:27:15,100 some kind of bit. It's not a bit. 525 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,300 I actually thought about this long and hard. 526 00:27:17,300 --> 00:27:20,100 Okay, let's let's here because I Of him at 26. 527 00:27:20,300 --> 00:27:23,000 Pat hasn't 30? I think is atp's like 28. 528 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:26,000 So Pat and I would have had him. Like not really moving at all 529 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:27,600 Davis. You're saying he slides a bunch. 530 00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:29,600 Let's, let's hear the. So I think there are there are a 531 00:27:29,608 --> 00:27:33,300 couple different things. Obviously, I think the first one 532 00:27:33,300 --> 00:27:35,900 is, we're all sort of anticipating a Tannehill trade 533 00:27:35,900 --> 00:27:37,900 at some point. Yeah, yeah, of course to some 534 00:27:37,900 --> 00:27:40,500 degree that's going to immediately. 535 00:27:40,500 --> 00:27:43,200 Basically make the Titans the worst offense in the AFC like 536 00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:46,000 whoever's doing projections. They're going to have a very 537 00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:48,900 hard time with the trail and Burks chigga. 538 00:27:49,100 --> 00:27:52,600 We'll leave us offense, getting them to any sort of reasonable 539 00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:55,900 degree of offensive, success. Also, think there's a nonzero 540 00:27:55,900 --> 00:27:59,000 chance he gets traded, right? I mean, there's just no point to 541 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,300 what they're doing and I can't really find a landing spot where 542 00:28:02,300 --> 00:28:05,600 he would go, and he would get this same sort of inhuman 543 00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:07,500 workload. He's gotten there. 544 00:28:07,700 --> 00:28:10,100 And then the other thing is and I don't know who this is going 545 00:28:10,100 --> 00:28:14,300 to be, there's going to be a couple running backs, who really 546 00:28:14,300 --> 00:28:16,600 end up Rising. I think the best candidate is 547 00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:21,000 probably Breeze Hall where Are we get an early report? 548 00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,800 No, brace feeling. Good, feeling, great. 549 00:28:23,900 --> 00:28:25,800 He goes up. No, I that's not reflected in my 550 00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:28,900 ranks because I think the more likely thing is the other way. 551 00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,500 I think we get bad injury news on Bruce Hall before we get 552 00:28:31,500 --> 00:28:33,600 good. Let's but I just I'm just saying 553 00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:36,600 and or Kenneth Walker, right? Kenneth Walker. 554 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:39,300 Maybe they maybe charbonnet comes in a camp and Pete 555 00:28:39,300 --> 00:28:41,300 Carroll's. Like, you know, we're starting 556 00:28:41,300 --> 00:28:46,300 to get who is the, who is the running back for the Titans who 557 00:28:46,300 --> 00:28:48,800 they took really early, and then literally never played him. 558 00:28:51,300 --> 00:28:54,300 Darren Evans. No, no, this is a long time ago. 559 00:28:54,300 --> 00:28:56,500 This is I love this guy. This window. 560 00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:01,800 No, this is like 20 2015 Titans. This is p. 0 0. 561 00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:03,700 Bishop Sankey. Bishop Sankey. 562 00:29:03,700 --> 00:29:06,200 Yes. Right so, so charbonnet comes in 563 00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:08,000 and they're like, this guy can't play right then. 564 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,700 Kenneth Walker goes back up to running back ten, I think Ramon 565 00:29:11,700 --> 00:29:14,500 Dre, right? If we get to August 1st, and the 566 00:29:14,508 --> 00:29:18,000 Patriots have been signed anyone else and it's Ramon Ray 567 00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,800 Stevenson Pierre, strong. And Harris and James Robinson, I 568 00:29:21,808 --> 00:29:26,200 think we see him rise. What if Joe Mixon? 569 00:29:27,300 --> 00:29:28,800 No cut? No suspension? 570 00:29:28,900 --> 00:29:31,000 No arrests, right. I just think there are a lot of 571 00:29:31,008 --> 00:29:33,900 different like running backs of question marks who could go up. 572 00:29:33,900 --> 00:29:37,500 I don't know who it's gonna be and I don't see any way the 573 00:29:37,500 --> 00:29:39,800 market views, Henry, more favorably. 574 00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:41,800 Right. I don't see any scenario where 575 00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:44,500 the market looks at his price right now and goes, that's too 576 00:29:44,500 --> 00:29:46,700 low. I think I kind of get what 577 00:29:46,700 --> 00:29:50,400 you're saying, but I like that. Let me let me just give Like the 578 00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:54,800 donkey Bray and like box score Checker, take on Derrick Henry, 579 00:29:54,900 --> 00:29:59,300 Henry October last two seasons half PPR points for game 580 00:29:59,700 --> 00:30:02,800 twenty-three and twenty. Like you literally has a ceiling 581 00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:06,300 that other running backs, like can't touch and happy if you are 582 00:30:06,300 --> 00:30:10,100 besides like McCaffrey the song nine years old though, he's 29 583 00:30:10,100 --> 00:30:14,000 August and it's crumbling. I'm not saying that like I hear 584 00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:18,700 that Pat but like are people taking debose 140 points last 585 00:30:18,700 --> 00:30:20,700 year over dere? Henry's like three hunt. 586 00:30:20,700 --> 00:30:24,400 Like I just I can't how many piss boys we can recruit. 587 00:30:24,500 --> 00:30:27,900 Yeah I just don't see that. I don't see him falling that 588 00:30:27,900 --> 00:30:30,300 far. I do think that you know my rank 589 00:30:30,300 --> 00:30:32,200 yet 26 is maybe a little ambitious. 590 00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:36,200 I was pricing in just like you know nothing changes for the 591 00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:40,300 Titans same situation basically. As last two years he's not 592 00:30:40,300 --> 00:30:42,000 really showing signs of slowing down. 593 00:30:42,300 --> 00:30:44,200 Is it 18 points per game last year? 594 00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:49,900 How could they are 20? 22 and then 18 and he's 29 years 595 00:30:49,900 --> 00:30:53,600 old, 20, 22, and 18. Wait, what did I say? 596 00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:56,200 I thought you said he had 20 last year. 597 00:30:57,000 --> 00:31:00,100 Okay. Anyway anyways yeah something 598 00:31:00,100 --> 00:31:02,500 about it. Tarek tarek, Brian jr. 599 00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:07,000 Made a great point and the chat, if they play Houston and week 17 600 00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,700 invalidated he'll be he'll be right back up. 601 00:31:10,700 --> 00:31:13,200 Know like everyone's looking at that sweet face Houston and week 602 00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:14,700 17. I'll be drafted in the second 603 00:31:14,700 --> 00:31:15,500 round. Yeah. 604 00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:23,600 Yeah anyway, I'm still seeing the issue anyways. 605 00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,300 Not to get hug. Not to get hung up on the 20.3. 606 00:31:26,300 --> 00:31:27,700 I'm surprised you that the Brock. 607 00:31:27,700 --> 00:31:32,100 I'm surprised you didn't put Brock / D at 36 and I thought 608 00:31:32,100 --> 00:31:33,900 about it. Oh no Pat, you're right, you're 609 00:31:33,900 --> 00:31:34,500 right. Pat. 610 00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:36,700 I was wrong on that. I think I was looking at PPR 611 00:31:36,700 --> 00:31:41,000 points per game anyways. Yeah, I still think that like, I 612 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,200 mean, the PPR point though, is I think one thing that's a little 613 00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:47,000 bit tougher With him to is that they just dropped Itachi Spears 614 00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:49,700 who like literally doesn't have an ACL, but they but they are 615 00:31:49,700 --> 00:31:51,100 playing, he's playing through it. 616 00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:54,000 Like he's, he doesn't. He's was like a full participant 617 00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,800 and everything. Jay's I didn't have 618 00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,200 denominational cartilage. I don't think. 619 00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:04,000 I thought he had his ACL but like Spears of passing down back 620 00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,100 and, and pretty talented receiver. 621 00:32:06,900 --> 00:32:11,700 So the whole like this offense is totally fizzling out like the 622 00:32:11,700 --> 00:32:14,500 the plan is no longer working anymore thing. 623 00:32:14,500 --> 00:32:17,500 I mean, One thing that saved Henry last year was that they 624 00:32:17,500 --> 00:32:19,200 actually threw to him a little bit. 625 00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:22,800 He had 41 car gets last year. That was a career-high. 33. 626 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,800 Receptions was a career. I buy like a billion. 627 00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:27,400 Yeah. I like a billion. 628 00:32:27,500 --> 00:32:30,100 Yeah yeah. He it was like it was almost 629 00:32:30,100 --> 00:32:32,900 twice what he had the previous season but I don't I just like 630 00:32:32,900 --> 00:32:35,400 love this. If this is the guy there, if the 631 00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:38,000 lovest is the guy they're starting like this offense is 632 00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:42,700 just going to be it's going to be so bad like it's going to be 633 00:32:42,700 --> 00:32:44,000 really really bad. Yeah. 634 00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:46,600 I still like I think you guys will make you bad points. 635 00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,800 Again, my rankings. I probably have him at 30 or 636 00:32:49,808 --> 00:32:53,400 something close to that. I just I still see a lot of. 637 00:32:53,408 --> 00:32:55,200 Yeah, Sam you and I were close right. 638 00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:57,400 You have 26, I had 30. Yeah, yeah. 639 00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:00,000 And again, that's my prediction, like my ranking probably would 640 00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,100 be like 30, 29, something like that. 641 00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:04,100 I don't know, man. People people are gonna love. 642 00:33:04,100 --> 00:33:06,200 Derrick Henry. I think like, him sliding past. 643 00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:08,500 I'm probably wrong. I'm probably wrong. 644 00:33:08,500 --> 00:33:11,500 Just the Derrick Henry people, they're just they are who they 645 00:33:11,500 --> 00:33:14,100 are and they have no interest in teaching, David kitchens like 646 00:33:14,100 --> 00:33:17,000 three drafts per year You're gonna problem up a lot too, when 647 00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:19,600 you take some 101, so you gotta find your that in. 648 00:33:20,900 --> 00:33:24,300 He's such a meme. Like players that are memes are 649 00:33:24,300 --> 00:33:28,300 harder to see big vacillations on because people just generate 650 00:33:28,300 --> 00:33:31,800 such a strong feeling about drafting them and I should have 651 00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:33,300 taken that into more consideration. 652 00:33:33,300 --> 00:33:34,700 The sexy. It is tough though because it's 653 00:33:34,700 --> 00:33:36,600 like, you know. Okay. 654 00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:38,600 Am I going to take Henry or Jimmy or gives? 655 00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:40,500 If I'm a Henry drafted? That's a no brainer. 656 00:33:40,500 --> 00:33:43,600 I'm taking Henry Henry and Travis etn, same thing, same 657 00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:44,300 thing. What? 658 00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:49,600 Andre Josh Jacobs, I could see Henry's Raptors. 659 00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:52,000 I could see Henry drafters being more into those guys. 660 00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,400 Yeah. Yeah, those are real running 661 00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:56,200 backs like those our Workhorse running backs. 662 00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:59,500 That's like an appealing archetype really for everybody. 663 00:33:59,500 --> 00:34:01,500 But I think for a Henry type drafter as well. 664 00:34:01,500 --> 00:34:05,800 So we're like Nick Chubb. If you know are you gonna I 665 00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:07,400 mean? And the guy he's probably taking 666 00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:09,699 Nick Chubb and then grabbing Derrick Henry and the third like 667 00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:12,600 this is a start, you're going to see Travis Kelce Nick Chubb, 668 00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:14,500 Derrick Henry. Like that's gonna be a star. 669 00:34:14,699 --> 00:34:20,500 McCarty one gets a Hardy won. The the biggest thing that I 670 00:34:20,500 --> 00:34:22,300 actually thought I had different than you guys. 671 00:34:22,300 --> 00:34:24,800 In terms of what it would do to draft structure, was I had 672 00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:27,699 Eckler all the way down at 17 or Pollard's going. 673 00:34:28,500 --> 00:34:35,199 Yeah, that was interesting that highest so reason being the 674 00:34:35,199 --> 00:34:38,100 Chargers are simply signing another running back, right? 675 00:34:38,100 --> 00:34:41,000 Yeah. They just edits I you know, God 676 00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:42,400 help me. I think it's probably going to 677 00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:45,900 be Zeke at this point. You know, it could be anybody, 678 00:34:45,900 --> 00:34:48,100 dude. It could be for net, it could be 679 00:34:48,100 --> 00:34:51,400 Kareem hunt, it could be anybody, but it's going to be 680 00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:55,400 telegraphing that they're not building the entire plane out of 681 00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:57,600 a four point eight eight dot like they're just they're just 682 00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:01,000 going to say Austin hecklers not catching 100 passes in the 683 00:35:01,008 --> 00:35:03,200 middle of a contract dispute, it's not happening. 684 00:35:03,900 --> 00:35:07,500 So yeah, I think they probably are signing someone. 685 00:35:07,500 --> 00:35:10,700 Your kind of our I know your ex Cowboys at this point but like 686 00:35:10,700 --> 00:35:12,300 you and that you would know better than anybody. 687 00:35:13,100 --> 00:35:16,200 What's Kellen Moore and Zeke This relationship like are they 688 00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:20,100 is that going to help her? It sounds it sounds like there 689 00:35:20,100 --> 00:35:24,200 was it was never acrimonious between those two guys. 690 00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:26,700 Okay? But you do have to think Kellen 691 00:35:26,700 --> 00:35:30,800 Moore was probably the one guy in the coaching room being. 692 00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:33,400 Like, we got to play Pollard more because even the running 693 00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:36,300 back coach, even the running back coach, who works with these 694 00:35:36,300 --> 00:35:38,800 guys every day and is acutely aware of what they can. 695 00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:41,900 And can't do was like Pollard can't play more than 30 snaps 696 00:35:41,900 --> 00:35:43,900 and again, or he'll break, you know. 697 00:35:44,700 --> 00:35:48,200 Really Jerry, you know you like Old Yeller and Zeke was the 698 00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:51,300 hardest thing he ever had. You snap he's he'll never 699 00:35:51,300 --> 00:35:54,000 recover don't ever ever get over it. 700 00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:55,900 Yeah. It's he's gonna wish you had 701 00:35:55,900 --> 00:35:58,100 more time with Zeke. That's but so these go. 702 00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:02,000 What would I guess my question do you guys would be is what is 703 00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:06,200 the best case resolution to this Austin Eckler? 704 00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:09,800 Contract thing because he himself in his own words he said 705 00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:13,100 playing for the Chargers to season is the worst case 706 00:36:13,100 --> 00:36:14,300 outcome. It's the worst thing that could 707 00:36:14,300 --> 00:36:16,600 happen. In him as a football player I 708 00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:20,700 think status quo is his best bet at this point, to be honest, I 709 00:36:20,700 --> 00:36:24,000 don't see, like, I guess you can dream and make up some scenario 710 00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:27,600 where the Vikings cut, Dalvin, cook, and trade, Frost neck, 711 00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:30,000 like sure. There's some like fantasies that 712 00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,700 I tell you that that aren't may be entirely implausible, but the 713 00:36:33,700 --> 00:36:37,300 most realistic best outcome for him, I think are just status 714 00:36:37,300 --> 00:36:40,100 quo. You know, for net signs with the 715 00:36:40,100 --> 00:36:43,500 The Bangles like cream, haunt signs with the Vikings or 716 00:36:43,500 --> 00:36:48,000 whatever and It's just a cooler and, you know, ya around tree 717 00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:51,900 and you know, whoever else is in there and we have the chat, we 718 00:36:51,900 --> 00:36:54,200 have the chat saying the Chargers really like Joshua 719 00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:57,400 Kelly to which I would respond. No one really likes, Joshua 720 00:36:57,400 --> 00:36:59,300 Kelly Joshua, Kelly's. Oh, that's right. 721 00:36:59,900 --> 00:37:03,900 They drafted two running backs after Joshua Kelly and 722 00:37:03,900 --> 00:37:05,500 desperately tried to replace them. 723 00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:12,700 I love them so much every day. He was the biggest of those dust 724 00:37:12,700 --> 00:37:15,200 ball running backs they tried to Draft. 725 00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:18,600 He was the best of like, for, like there was like, three guys 726 00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:21,600 worse than, when I forgot. Isaiah Spiller existed until 727 00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:23,400 this moment, right? And what was the other guy 728 00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:27,000 Dobbin Davos? Um, Larry Roundtree is there 729 00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,200 around tree. That's I was that's where Larry 730 00:37:32,300 --> 00:37:36,500 Michelle Michelle was involved. Both with pats best Ball Mania 731 00:37:36,500 --> 00:37:38,300 winning team and the Los Angeles Chargers. 732 00:37:38,300 --> 00:37:41,500 Last season's also you did nothing for both teams. 733 00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:46,100 I am pointing like Tony Michelle I am as a, you know, free agent 734 00:37:46,100 --> 00:37:48,500 pickup in the meth PC main event I gotta leave some of those 735 00:37:48,500 --> 00:37:52,600 tweets - point point. I also just thought about that 736 00:37:54,300 --> 00:37:57,600 having a competent wide receiver fill in for Kenan. 737 00:37:57,600 --> 00:38:01,400 Allen's yearly four-week absence from the lineup that's going to 738 00:38:01,408 --> 00:38:03,900 make a difference to. I think having Quinton Johnson 739 00:38:03,900 --> 00:38:06,900 and said of Jalen Guyton that, that feels I think a Killers. 740 00:38:06,900 --> 00:38:10,400 Yeah, I think hecklers receiving projection and potentially is 741 00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:13,500 rushing, projection takes a bit of a hit this year again. 742 00:38:13,500 --> 00:38:16,200 Like where I'd have Have Eckler ranks. 743 00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:20,800 I think I'm kind of like, with you Davis, like, maybe 15 16, 744 00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:23,400 I'm just not sure people are going to like bake all those 745 00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:27,200 factors and they will if Echo if they saw him running back. 746 00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:29,000 Yeah, yeah, yeah. Look. 747 00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:31,700 If the establish the Run rankings come out when they post 748 00:38:31,700 --> 00:38:36,200 them and Austin Eckler is 17. That's like, it's, I mean, maybe 749 00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:39,700 that 23 because they signed for net, you know what I mean? 750 00:38:39,700 --> 00:38:44,500 People, but people are just straight up a larger portion. 751 00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:46,900 Pull then you realize you're just straight-up importing 752 00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:50,600 establish the Run Underdog best while Mania rankings and using 753 00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:54,000 that as their guide. Yeah that's fair. 754 00:38:55,500 --> 00:38:59,800 Okay. Let's talk maybe one more player 755 00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:02,100 here we touched on briefs haul a little bit. 756 00:39:02,100 --> 00:39:05,100 Maybe this one is a simple as like Davis had about twenty 757 00:39:05,100 --> 00:39:08,400 eight me and Pat had him at Pat I'm 19 I am at 21. 758 00:39:08,500 --> 00:39:10,200 I think this is a simple as like Davis. 759 00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:13,400 You're assuming the median scenario is like slightly bad 760 00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:17,400 news for the ACL tear Pat and I are assuming slightly good news 761 00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:20,400 for the ACL tear and the story is that just kind of what we're 762 00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:23,400 thinking here. I just bet against injury guys. 763 00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:26,100 That's like my it's probably like my number one thing in 764 00:39:26,100 --> 00:39:27,800 fantasy football. Honestly. 765 00:39:30,100 --> 00:39:31,900 I mean, it's fair. I just think briefs. 766 00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:35,700 Okay, again, like not to get away from the exercise too much. 767 00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:38,500 I get the argument that he would fall with that injury news. 768 00:39:38,500 --> 00:39:41,300 Like, I think you're rakia 28. Davis is, like entirely 769 00:39:41,300 --> 00:39:43,300 plausible. This is, this is a very binary 770 00:39:43,300 --> 00:39:44,800 one, right? Like we're gonna get some news, 771 00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:46,500 it's going to be good, it's going to be bad. 772 00:39:46,500 --> 00:39:49,200 He's gonna go One Direction or the other, man. 773 00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:51,900 I just think that, like, he's the guy you make the exception 774 00:39:51,900 --> 00:39:55,600 on for, for the the injury risk and, you know, this will 775 00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:57,700 probably burn you more times than it'll help you. 776 00:39:57,700 --> 00:40:01,200 But, just with what he showed last year, I want to believe he 777 00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:04,200 has the Jamaal Charles, you know, post ACL tear being the 778 00:40:04,207 --> 00:40:07,000 rb1 and fantasy. You know, I don't believe he has 779 00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:10,400 the Adrian Peterson season and I'm post ACL tear just because 780 00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:13,900 he freaked athlete all that, but I definitely see the argument. 781 00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:17,600 It's I mean I I get it. I'm not even saying I won't take 782 00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:20,500 result the the big issue right now is you can just take Pollard 783 00:40:20,500 --> 00:40:23,500 and worm Andre, every time I have no concerns about those 784 00:40:23,500 --> 00:40:26,200 guys at all. And that's what I maybe. 785 00:40:26,700 --> 00:40:30,100 I mean, maybe briefs the thing is though, is you could Really 786 00:40:30,100 --> 00:40:33,100 be missing the boat because I would take Breeze ahead of 787 00:40:33,100 --> 00:40:37,500 Jacobs and Chubb assuming 100% Health like he's got and I take 788 00:40:37,500 --> 00:40:41,000 my had a tailor. Yeah well Jonathan Taylor so I 789 00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:46,200 also ranked Taylor ahead of you guys because I mean, a couple of 790 00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:49,900 reasons, the first one being I just think very similar to 791 00:40:49,900 --> 00:40:52,300 Henry, he's just kind of memetic, like he just, he is 792 00:40:52,300 --> 00:40:55,900 that guy. But also if we just get, if we 793 00:40:55,900 --> 00:40:58,400 get good stuff about Anthony Richardson and good stuff about 794 00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:01,000 the Colts, like it feels like the market. 795 00:41:01,300 --> 00:41:04,800 We were talking about this in our ATP, chasing thread and I 796 00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:08,100 kind of agreed with Sam's take that Anthony Richardson is not 797 00:41:08,100 --> 00:41:12,500 good for Jonathan Taylor, but it also might be good for them to 798 00:41:12,500 --> 00:41:15,000 just be like a better more functional offense instead. 799 00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:18,000 Having Sam ehlinger a quarterback you know like it 800 00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:21,800 just got to be such a mess for the filling improving situation 801 00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:24,700 for Taylor. Yeah, it doesn't accept my point 802 00:41:24,700 --> 00:41:28,600 like if they took if they traded up or Stroud that's the 803 00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:31,500 best-case scenario where they traded for Bryce young, you 804 00:41:31,500 --> 00:41:34,900 know, but if yeah, compared to what they were like, it's a hell 805 00:41:34,900 --> 00:41:37,700 of a lot better than them going. We're not taking quarterback. 806 00:41:37,700 --> 00:41:41,600 We're good, you know, so that I just think no matter how many 807 00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:45,200 dump-off passes You know, you're giving up with Anthony 808 00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:48,000 Richardson, the offense, could be quite a bit better. 809 00:41:48,500 --> 00:41:50,200 Sure. But I guess I guess my counter 810 00:41:50,200 --> 00:41:53,400 that is like like using last year's a baseline saying it's 811 00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:54,600 gonna get better. Yeah, I agree. 812 00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:58,600 It's like the offensive probably better Taylor was fucking like, 813 00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:02,200 a terrible pick last year like you got 12 year olds were once 814 00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:04,200 per game. Like the cult was the worst than 815 00:42:04,200 --> 00:42:05,800 I remember. They would have sent. 816 00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:08,900 Yeah, they were so bad. They were a lot. 817 00:42:08,900 --> 00:42:10,600 That's a lot better for him, right? 818 00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:12,400 Like not just like a little bit better. 819 00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:16,600 Like, Yeah, but these were, these were these, These Are 820 00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:19,300 teams that were scored more points and gained more yards per 821 00:42:19,300 --> 00:42:23,100 play than the Indianapolis Colts last season the Los Angeles, 822 00:42:23,100 --> 00:42:25,800 Rams, right? We're all laughing at the Los 823 00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:27,100 Angeles Rams. They were better. 824 00:42:27,100 --> 00:42:31,000 The Arizona Cardinals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the 825 00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:32,500 Washington commanders, the Denver Broncos. 826 00:42:32,500 --> 00:42:38,100 One of the largest shipwrecks in fantasy football history were 827 00:42:38,100 --> 00:42:41,700 markedly better like I have I had forgot honestly I'd 828 00:42:41,700 --> 00:42:44,600 forgotten like there's things you Get over the context. 829 00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:46,800 I just did not realize they were this bad. 830 00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:49,800 Do they heard of Coach off the ESPN set? 831 00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:55,500 Not exactly. Yes, literally, did. 832 00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,800 They like that? They literally being fucking was 833 00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:00,600 watching. TV was like, that's my coach. 834 00:43:00,700 --> 00:43:03,500 Let's get him in here tomorrow? Wow. 835 00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:06,000 Oh man. Look at go wrong. 836 00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:08,900 Yeah. What uh, what is a sir? 837 00:43:10,500 --> 00:43:14,700 Okay, so I want to do a bit because I guess I'm the tailor 838 00:43:15,400 --> 00:43:19,800 bear here, a little bit and I made that case in our in our 839 00:43:19,808 --> 00:43:21,300 Discord. I guess I'll outline it here a 840 00:43:21,308 --> 00:43:25,500 little bit for people. It's essentially that rushing 841 00:43:25,500 --> 00:43:29,700 quarterbacks are Elite Russian, quarterbacks are really terrible 842 00:43:29,700 --> 00:43:32,200 for the ceiling of a fantasy running backs. 843 00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:35,400 Not to say that, you know, you can't have guys that you take in 844 00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:37,800 the sixth, seventh round attached to an elite Russian 845 00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:40,600 quarterback that are good pics, like certainly, Think that's 846 00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:43,300 true but I think when we're talking about a guy going in the 847 00:43:43,300 --> 00:43:47,400 first round with a quarterback that projects to a steal, a 848 00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:51,600 bunch of goal-line, rushing be not really dumped down to 849 00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:54,300 running backs in the passing game because he could scramble 850 00:43:54,300 --> 00:43:56,400 instead and also likes throw deep, you know that are 851 00:43:56,400 --> 00:43:59,700 Richardson and see like we all like Richards and I think but, 852 00:43:59,700 --> 00:44:01,600 you know, you have to admit there's a chance at the Colts 853 00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:04,500 are just a bottom five offense next year and just terrible. 854 00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:07,400 Like there's there's a lot of things that have to go right for 855 00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:10,000 Taylor to pay off his first-round cost. 856 00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:13,200 And Like he's a meme. You can just say that like 857 00:44:13,500 --> 00:44:17,100 Taylor Gober and like I kind of get it decide to some extent, 858 00:44:17,100 --> 00:44:22,300 but I think like, I would probably rather have say Quan 859 00:44:22,300 --> 00:44:26,600 Eckler, Jacobs Pollard, chub over Taylor. 860 00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:31,200 I gotta be on my rankings I'm Takin Taylor over Eckler in .5 861 00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:34,400 P, PR like pretty much sight unseen. 862 00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:37,400 Yeah, me too. Plus I mean we have a signing 863 00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:40,500 risk like you know? Sure. 864 00:44:40,500 --> 00:44:44,300 Well okay then what's the like let's let's do this and you're 865 00:44:44,300 --> 00:44:45,600 right. They think the argument is he's 866 00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:48,200 like really fucking good. That's the argument. 867 00:44:48,200 --> 00:44:52,000 The argument is really good and that's what the Jonathan Taylor 868 00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:54,000 argument is. It's just like he's sick. 869 00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:57,000 Yeah, sick dude, he was an amazing Prospect. 870 00:44:57,000 --> 00:45:01,100 He came in, he was in he was insanely good, two years ago. 871 00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:03,400 The offense is going to get back on its feet at least to some 872 00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:06,000 extent. The best thing that he does. 873 00:45:06,100 --> 00:45:09,500 Does is run the ball. That's what he does best. 874 00:45:09,800 --> 00:45:13,400 He's a fine receiver, but that's not like his bread and butter is 875 00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:17,100 bread and butter is running the ball and explosive runs and 876 00:45:17,100 --> 00:45:18,600 aren't right. The Richardson's going to open 877 00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:21,100 that up aren't running. Quarterback is good for yard 878 00:45:21,100 --> 00:45:23,500 like yards per carry and since they are they boost yards per 879 00:45:23,500 --> 00:45:24,400 carry. Yeah. 880 00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:26,600 But I think pretending that rushing yards are more important 881 00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:30,100 than receptions and I'm not pretending that I'm not no no, 882 00:45:30,100 --> 00:45:31,800 I'm not saying you are. I'm just I'm just saying that 883 00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:35,100 like you can use that argument but like the I agree, you know, 884 00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:37,100 that's true. Good for yards per carry, you 885 00:45:37,100 --> 00:45:40,900 could be wildly efficient but like show me the TD upside. 886 00:45:40,900 --> 00:45:44,100 Show me the receiving upside, like I think you need one of 887 00:45:44,100 --> 00:45:47,500 those things and a pretty big way and it just feels like a 888 00:45:47,500 --> 00:45:49,900 lot. Like I can't tell myself a story 889 00:45:49,900 --> 00:45:53,000 of Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson pay off their their 890 00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:54,800 adp's with Richard, some going in the sixth round. 891 00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:58,400 Like so I was looking, I have in my spreadsheet here for the 892 00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:01,700 legendary upside stuff, green zone opportunities per game. 893 00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:07,200 So, over the career of all these backs, Adjusted it slightly for 894 00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:11,100 some who had like major changes in situation but Eckler are 895 00:46:11,100 --> 00:46:14,300 sorry, Taylor. I have for his career to green 896 00:46:14,300 --> 00:46:16,200 zone opportunities for a game. That's highest of any of these 897 00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:18,500 running backs. David Cook was second 1.9. 898 00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:25,300 Joe Mixon had 1.8 Josh Jacobs at 1.8 compared to like Tony 899 00:46:25,300 --> 00:46:28,400 Pollard 0.4. So yes, I get the Anthony 900 00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:31,900 Richardson is going to be stealing some goal line work 901 00:46:31,900 --> 00:46:36,600 from him as a giant human but Don't know. 902 00:46:36,600 --> 00:46:38,100 I mean, he's a rookie quarterback. 903 00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:40,800 Like, is our that you see Gonna they, and you have Jonathan 904 00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:44,400 Taylor, like, I guess I'm a little bit less concerned about 905 00:46:44,500 --> 00:46:47,400 Anthony Richardson, being the goal line Runner, then you are. 906 00:46:47,400 --> 00:46:51,900 I think he's definitely gonna get some work there, but Taylor 907 00:46:51,900 --> 00:46:53,500 was getting fed at the goal line. 908 00:46:53,700 --> 00:46:58,400 There's no other running back who's even remotely live to 909 00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:00,900 steal any of that work. I mean, Evan Hall, they're not 910 00:47:00,900 --> 00:47:03,100 bringing in heaven whole to go line like ever. 911 00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:05,700 I still got that. Heinz isn't even on the team 912 00:47:05,700 --> 00:47:06,700 anymore. More like this. 913 00:47:06,700 --> 00:47:09,900 Like he could, he could have a Henry volume season like he 914 00:47:09,900 --> 00:47:12,400 could have 380 touches. I guess that's my point, right? 915 00:47:12,400 --> 00:47:14,700 Like you're making it, you have to admit, you're making a 916 00:47:14,707 --> 00:47:16,700 Derrick Henry two years ago it's Derrick Henry. 917 00:47:16,700 --> 00:47:21,100 Yeah it's Derek, okay. So if you're 24 years old and 918 00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:24,900 he's he's an incredible Runner. I mean you talk about job like 919 00:47:24,900 --> 00:47:30,300 chops, 27 years old and you know we had a really bad knee injury 920 00:47:30,300 --> 00:47:34,400 in college like like all the data that I've been looking at 921 00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:37,800 is saying, like you really you If anything, we're like, giving 922 00:47:38,500 --> 00:47:41,300 if you're talking about running back ceiling, we're extending 923 00:47:41,300 --> 00:47:44,300 things too long, but we should actually start to get nervous 924 00:47:44,300 --> 00:47:46,700 about the ceiling earlier than we are. 925 00:47:47,100 --> 00:47:50,400 And so, when I look at a guy like Nick Chubb, obviously the 926 00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:53,800 offense is way better like the offensive environment, way more 927 00:47:53,800 --> 00:47:55,400 interesting. Chub could potentially catch 928 00:47:55,400 --> 00:47:58,300 some passes this year, as well. I kind of like chub actually 929 00:47:58,300 --> 00:48:02,800 for, like the first time in five years, but he's 27 years old, 930 00:48:03,100 --> 00:48:04,300 there's a big difference between that. 931 00:48:04,300 --> 00:48:07,900 And so, when he's 24, Yeah, that's fair. 932 00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:12,800 I mean I really think like the Taylor ceiling case like can hit 933 00:48:12,800 --> 00:48:15,600 its on possible, we've seen like this setup for Derrick Henry 934 00:48:15,900 --> 00:48:19,100 more or less hit like a just a really efficient rusher, not 935 00:48:19,100 --> 00:48:22,800 going to catch passes but now you're making the Derrick Henry 936 00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:26,900 bet but the team has Derrick Henry at quarterback, who's 937 00:48:26,900 --> 00:48:29,600 gonna score, rushing touchdowns, and it's going to be a bad. 938 00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:32,300 Like, if the Colts are as good as those Ryan Tannehill, LED 939 00:48:32,300 --> 00:48:36,200 Titans offenses, like, I'll bet with anybody on that, like, 940 00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:38,800 Titans Tannehill, offices are going to be way better than this 941 00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:41,100 year's Colts offense. Like, I'll, I'll bet even money 942 00:48:41,100 --> 00:48:43,400 with anybody on that. Like, no-questions-asked, like 943 00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:47,200 Santana was really good some of those years and he wasn't like 944 00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:48,600 stealing Gold Line work from Henry. 945 00:48:48,600 --> 00:48:51,100 So I don't know, man. I get what you guys are saying. 946 00:48:51,100 --> 00:48:54,200 Like, I'm, I'm gonna have a pretty hard fade on Taylor at 947 00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:56,800 this price and I'm, I'm willing to accept that. 948 00:48:56,800 --> 00:48:59,900 Do you think he falls or do you think you just don't, you don't 949 00:48:59,900 --> 00:49:01,800 like the price, I think you follow. 950 00:49:01,800 --> 00:49:05,800 So I'll show this now, Jonathan Taylor. 951 00:49:06,400 --> 00:49:09,700 Since, you know, I'm a market. Mover out here since I sent me 952 00:49:09,700 --> 00:49:12,200 that tweet on Taylor. He's down for spots. 953 00:49:12,700 --> 00:49:16,300 He's got more spots. Second biggest fall 13 overall, 954 00:49:16,300 --> 00:49:18,200 you know I'm sitting in Pete screams, he's like, are you guys 955 00:49:18,200 --> 00:49:20,500 really gonna let me take Taylor at pick 17? 956 00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:24,800 I honestly think, like, when the projections come out people are 957 00:49:24,800 --> 00:49:27,100 gonna remember Taylor last year with a sour taste in their 958 00:49:27,100 --> 00:49:29,900 mouths. Like I think he's gonna I think 959 00:49:29,900 --> 00:49:32,900 he's gonna slide but that's just me like I'm willing to, you 960 00:49:32,900 --> 00:49:35,600 know, go with classic taking the mid s. 961 00:49:36,000 --> 00:49:37,300 Yeah. Actually, that's that's when I 962 00:49:37,308 --> 00:49:39,200 would like to take him. So maybe it's a little bit of 963 00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:43,600 wish casting for me, but I had this exercise. 964 00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:47,000 I'm going to skip through it. I wanted you guys to try to find 965 00:49:47,000 --> 00:49:50,100 Taylor chub and Jacobs. On this chart, I took the last 966 00:49:50,100 --> 00:49:54,200 three years of data, and just looked at, keep your points per 967 00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:56,000 game or sorry. Happy drop points per game. 968 00:49:56,300 --> 00:49:58,500 Receptions per game yards per game. 969 00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:01,400 Do you guys want to do this quickly or should I just show 970 00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:02,900 you the answer? So I think it's a little 971 00:50:02,900 --> 00:50:05,200 interesting. These are all samples of like 40 972 00:50:05,200 --> 00:50:06,200 games too. So they're pretty. 973 00:50:06,300 --> 00:50:09,600 Big samples. Well, I mean the eight just 974 00:50:09,600 --> 00:50:13,600 based on the ages yeah Henry Henry ones the top one because 975 00:50:13,600 --> 00:50:17,400 he's the 28 29. Yeah that is that one has to be 976 00:50:17,400 --> 00:50:18,000 Henry. Right. 977 00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:22,800 So where do you think? You know, one of the others I'm 978 00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:23,800 going to I'm going to show you on. 979 00:50:23,800 --> 00:50:27,100 Yes. So I was trying to make the 980 00:50:27,100 --> 00:50:31,800 point that essentially like Jacobs and Taylor. 981 00:50:32,500 --> 00:50:36,400 I think I get the arguments for chub Taylor but ahead of chub, 982 00:50:36,600 --> 00:50:40,200 the ones with Jacobs. First, Taylor, for me, it's just 983 00:50:40,200 --> 00:50:42,700 like, we, like, running back to catch passes. 984 00:50:42,700 --> 00:50:44,700 Jacob, sketches Pat more passes than Taylor. 985 00:50:44,700 --> 00:50:46,900 He's definitely gonna protect you that this year, you know, 986 00:50:46,900 --> 00:50:50,600 yards per game Jacobson Taylor last three years are basically 987 00:50:50,600 --> 00:50:52,600 the same, you know, points per game. 988 00:50:52,700 --> 00:50:55,700 Jacob's Taylor, the last three years, not that different. 989 00:50:55,700 --> 00:50:58,800 I get that Taylor's ceiling which you showed two years ago, 990 00:50:58,800 --> 00:51:01,900 it's better than Jacob ceiling which you show last year, like 991 00:51:02,000 --> 00:51:04,900 certainly you have that argument and, you know, you can make the 992 00:51:04,900 --> 00:51:07,100 speed arguing with Taylor Breakaway Ron's that sort of 993 00:51:07,107 --> 00:51:09,000 thing. But again, look at You know, 994 00:51:09,000 --> 00:51:11,800 we're talking about rushing Talent PFF Rush grades last 995 00:51:11,800 --> 00:51:17,100 three years Jacob's first, 10th 20th, Taylor 51st, third tenth. 996 00:51:17,300 --> 00:51:20,900 Like I don't think they're that as different as people view them 997 00:51:20,900 --> 00:51:23,600 as talents like and it sort of any metric you look at. 998 00:51:23,700 --> 00:51:24,900 They're not, they're not that different. 999 00:51:24,900 --> 00:51:27,400 We have this like idnr had that Jacobs. 1000 00:51:27,400 --> 00:51:30,600 Is this gross DeadZone back? Taylor's this like Elite Talent. 1001 00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:34,200 I mean they're basically the same age that's my point 1002 00:51:34,200 --> 00:51:35,600 basically. Like the the situation for 1003 00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:38,100 Jacobs this year looks so much better. 1004 00:51:38,600 --> 00:51:40,900 Taylor for me and I don't think they're that different of 1005 00:51:40,900 --> 00:51:42,700 talent. So like I think they should at 1006 00:51:42,700 --> 00:51:46,500 least be close. But yeah, here's your just not 1007 00:51:46,500 --> 00:51:49,000 going to get. So Jacobs is like an okay, 1008 00:51:49,200 --> 00:51:52,000 rusher. But this is Rota visitors. 1009 00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:54,900 Richard's fantasy points over expected per game. 1010 00:51:54,900 --> 00:51:59,400 Rushing and Josh Jacobs as at one point one, which is like, 1011 00:51:59,400 --> 00:52:01,200 fine. That's that's what Boston Eckler 1012 00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:03,200 has its, what Christian Caffrey has. 1013 00:52:03,800 --> 00:52:08,400 So it, but it's more kind of like the Workhorse bet Jonathan. 1014 00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:13,200 Taylor is a 2.3 Derrick Henry was a 2.4 Breeze Halls at 2.7, 1015 00:52:13,500 --> 00:52:14,800 which is why I'm so excited about him. 1016 00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:16,900 If he was healthy. Nick Chubb, one of the reasons. 1017 00:52:16,900 --> 00:52:20,800 Nick Chubb was at 2.5. So those guys, I would say those 1018 00:52:20,800 --> 00:52:24,500 right now or like your, for potentially and we'll see, you 1019 00:52:24,500 --> 00:52:28,700 know, age Health, all the stuff. But like those for, I think, are 1020 00:52:29,200 --> 00:52:30,900 in a bit of a difference here because they provide a lot more 1021 00:52:30,900 --> 00:52:32,400 explosion. I mean, Jake Jacob's, doesn't 1022 00:52:32,400 --> 00:52:34,200 really provide you any explosion as a rusher. 1023 00:52:34,400 --> 00:52:37,600 He's a he's a chunk play Runner and he's good, he's good at 1024 00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:42,700 that. Yeah, yeah, that's fair. 1025 00:52:42,700 --> 00:52:46,200 I mean, I don't know. 53 catches last year 2000 yards from 1026 00:52:46,200 --> 00:52:51,600 scrimmage, like I get that was sort of a ceiling but weld are 1027 00:52:51,600 --> 00:52:53,600 you worried about that. So that's when one thing that 1028 00:52:53,600 --> 00:52:57,700 stuff with me, it with Jacobs little bit like And I do take 1029 00:52:57,700 --> 00:53:01,400 them because the price is pretty good. 1030 00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:04,100 Like the price on, all these guys does feel pretty good right 1031 00:53:04,100 --> 00:53:06,800 now, I'm taking them a lot more than I would, you know, head 1032 00:53:06,800 --> 00:53:10,800 expected to. But even last year he had 17.9 1033 00:53:11,500 --> 00:53:17,400 Half Point PPR points per game, which is good but like it was 1034 00:53:17,400 --> 00:53:19,800 especially good because where you got them, you know? 1035 00:53:19,900 --> 00:53:21,600 Yeah. So if we're saying, like, always 1036 00:53:21,600 --> 00:53:23,400 be taking them or Taylor goes like, I don't know. 1037 00:53:23,408 --> 00:53:25,900 Last year really felt like kind of the ceiling to me, and then 1038 00:53:26,000 --> 00:53:27,800 you're moving, Jimmy Garoppolo a quarterback. 1039 00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:31,300 I'm not really a Jimmy believer. I think the offense could be not 1040 00:53:31,300 --> 00:53:33,400 that. It was great last year, but I 1041 00:53:33,600 --> 00:53:35,300 might have been kind of a perfect storm for a running 1042 00:53:35,300 --> 00:53:36,500 back. Yeah, that we work on. 1043 00:53:36,500 --> 00:53:39,900 We kind of had given up on as a talent and then he comes surgeon 1044 00:53:39,900 --> 00:53:43,300 back to life but he did it with good efficiency for sure. 1045 00:53:43,900 --> 00:53:46,400 But mostly by just consolidating the entire backfield. 1046 00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:49,100 He's a he's a pretty strong favorite to do that again, 1047 00:53:49,500 --> 00:53:51,300 right? I don't know, I mean for first 1048 00:53:51,300 --> 00:53:54,200 in PFF Rush grade I get that like that's not everything but 1049 00:53:54,200 --> 00:53:58,600 like I'm going to push back a little That on Jacobs not being 1050 00:53:58,600 --> 00:54:00,900 a good talent at running back, like I think I'm not saying it's 1051 00:54:00,900 --> 00:54:04,000 not, I'm saying I'm saying Taylor is potentially Elite 1052 00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:07,100 Talent, running back and I think I think that, you know, guys 1053 00:54:07,100 --> 00:54:09,600 like chub Taylor. I mean, Taylor had Russia, is 1054 00:54:09,600 --> 00:54:13,400 over expected, two years ago, he was off the fucking charts. 1055 00:54:13,400 --> 00:54:18,400 I mean, the guy was, let's see well he wasn't because Richard 1056 00:54:18,400 --> 00:54:21,600 Penny actually was 2.1, but he was he finished third at one 1057 00:54:21,600 --> 00:54:23,300 point. Four eight had a Nick Chubb. 1058 00:54:23,300 --> 00:54:29,400 Tony Pollard was fifth So, I mean, he what he showed is a 1059 00:54:29,400 --> 00:54:34,400 rusher and on a big workload at 481 yards, over expected two 1060 00:54:34,400 --> 00:54:37,100 years ago. Chubb had 269. 1061 00:54:38,100 --> 00:54:41,800 He was like handling massive volume and providing Elite 1062 00:54:41,800 --> 00:54:44,800 efficiency on top of it. So it's more for me that Taylor 1063 00:54:44,800 --> 00:54:47,900 side of this that I'm arguing, I think Jacobs is like good 1064 00:54:47,900 --> 00:54:50,000 runner. Sure, Taylor, flash, delete 1065 00:54:50,000 --> 00:54:56,600 ability, Jacob's never has. Yeah, so I guess I see some 1066 00:54:56,600 --> 00:54:59,900 pushback in the chat, like, my argument is not that these are 1067 00:54:59,900 --> 00:55:02,700 bad stats for Taylor. Like, these are really good 1068 00:55:02,700 --> 00:55:05,700 stats and again he had one pretty bad year in here. 1069 00:55:05,700 --> 00:55:08,200 So, Taylor ceiling is certainly really good. 1070 00:55:08,700 --> 00:55:12,600 I just think, like, your first round pick the downside of the 1071 00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:15,500 team situation. Again, could be a horrible, team 1072 00:55:16,000 --> 00:55:17,700 a running back. That's not going to throw to the 1073 00:55:18,100 --> 00:55:19,000 quarterback. That's not going through the 1074 00:55:19,008 --> 00:55:21,800 running back and the quarterback that like, if he's good, he's 1075 00:55:21,800 --> 00:55:23,600 going to be a fucking monster. Throughout the goal line and 1076 00:55:23,600 --> 00:55:25,800 taking a bunch of touch, a bunch of touchdown. 1077 00:55:25,800 --> 00:55:30,400 So like you know I'm thinking like how Justin Fields just 1078 00:55:30,400 --> 00:55:33,100 sucked up all the running back points from the Bears Back 1079 00:55:33,100 --> 00:55:34,700 Field. Last year, how Jalen Hurd said 1080 00:55:34,700 --> 00:55:37,100 that two years ago? Like that's like the median 1081 00:55:37,100 --> 00:55:39,600 outcome. I think honestly for this type 1082 00:55:39,600 --> 00:55:42,400 of offense and I just don't get, I don't see the point of like, 1083 00:55:42,400 --> 00:55:47,000 taking that type of risk and you as your first round pick in this 1084 00:55:47,000 --> 00:55:48,800 tournament, but you guys are making good points. 1085 00:55:48,800 --> 00:55:52,200 Like, you know, I see both sides of it but that's okay. 1086 00:55:52,200 --> 00:55:53,700 Yeah. Think he'll fall to the early 1087 00:55:53,700 --> 00:55:55,700 second. I think you're probably right 1088 00:55:55,700 --> 00:55:59,200 about that or maybe even amidst. I mean, for the mid S, I mean 1089 00:55:59,800 --> 00:56:03,000 mean Sam, please get those tweets out there. 1090 00:56:03,000 --> 00:56:06,000 I want mid-second, Jonathan Taylor like, yeah, I would, I 1091 00:56:06,000 --> 00:56:08,400 would be, I would have no qualms at that price. 1092 00:56:08,400 --> 00:56:12,100 Like I feel it's an uneasy click for me, sort of at that, at that 1093 00:56:12,100 --> 00:56:14,500 turn, but at like 17 or whatever. 1094 00:56:14,500 --> 00:56:16,900 Pretty easy. Yeah, I took I think it was 1095 00:56:16,900 --> 00:56:22,500 Adams Taylor at the at the 112 and I was doubling it up and I 1096 00:56:22,700 --> 00:56:24,800 Like looked at him. I looked at Taylor, I was like, 1097 00:56:24,800 --> 00:56:27,400 we doing this, we're doing it, you know, it's, but it's like 1098 00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:29,500 that kind of, it's not like you're smashing the button at 1099 00:56:29,500 --> 00:56:32,200 112 so I could see him falling for sure. 1100 00:56:32,800 --> 00:56:36,400 Paul says, either the skeevies at Arby's that JT's town, I 1101 00:56:36,408 --> 00:56:39,700 agree with that. Someone give me example, of the 1102 00:56:39,800 --> 00:56:43,200 elite Russian quarterback who ran for, you know, 700 plus 1103 00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:47,000 yards and they're running back, who was, you know, a top three 1104 00:56:47,000 --> 00:56:50,500 running back in fantasy. Like, I don't think that exists, 1105 00:56:50,700 --> 00:56:53,400 Maybe I'm Wrong, someone gave me these Sample of that. 1106 00:56:53,500 --> 00:56:56,300 I just don't think it exists but it's gonna anyways sample. 1107 00:56:58,100 --> 00:57:01,400 Yeah, but I have never really happened before, you know that 1108 00:57:01,400 --> 00:57:04,600 you would have had a guy that would qualify tillers level. 1109 00:57:05,700 --> 00:57:08,400 Yeah, but yeah, I get what, I get a totally get where you're 1110 00:57:08,400 --> 00:57:10,200 coming from. I mean, it is thin, it's a to 1111 00:57:10,200 --> 00:57:13,400 down rushing profile which makes it thinner. 1112 00:57:14,100 --> 00:57:17,100 Yeah. That yeah, the Newton the Newton 1113 00:57:17,100 --> 00:57:19,900 CNC one is interesting. But that, that was really when 1114 00:57:19,900 --> 00:57:25,700 Newton was no longer rushing for like 800 people, people said 1115 00:57:25,700 --> 00:57:28,800 that about see him see though, that was that was all dead. 1116 00:57:28,800 --> 00:57:30,500 That was a thing. But but I wasn't getting 1117 00:57:30,500 --> 00:57:32,600 comparing. Yeah, me draft and see him soon 1118 00:57:32,600 --> 00:57:34,000 because he's not going to get dumped off. 1119 00:57:34,000 --> 00:57:37,300 See, now that's fair. But Comparing cmc's receiving 1120 00:57:37,300 --> 00:57:40,900 talent to Jonathan Taylor's again, like because the reason 1121 00:57:40,900 --> 00:57:45,800 CMC hit is because he was an absolute like what he caught 105 1122 00:57:45,800 --> 00:57:48,400 passes. Like that's the reason he hit 1123 00:57:48,500 --> 00:57:51,000 that year, I know, but they were like there was a thing of like, 1124 00:57:51,000 --> 00:57:52,500 Candace and chick down cams never. 1125 00:57:52,500 --> 00:57:55,300 Gonna throw to the running back so like sure. 1126 00:57:55,300 --> 00:57:56,700 Yeah, I get that. I get that. 1127 00:57:56,800 --> 00:58:01,000 Yeah, I mean, and I don't know, I mean, Richardson super 1128 00:58:01,000 --> 00:58:04,300 inaccurate to the salary of the field, which is a major problem, 1129 00:58:04,500 --> 00:58:07,500 but I do think that's More of a concern for like a Josh Downs or 1130 00:58:07,500 --> 00:58:10,100 whatever, you know, or like maybe even a Hitman to some 1131 00:58:10,100 --> 00:58:14,000 extent where it's like, he's not like he's going to miss throws 1132 00:58:14,000 --> 00:58:17,500 but like maybe the tape guys gotta tell me they can't, can he 1133 00:58:17,500 --> 00:58:19,700 not? He can't do this, he can't get 1134 00:58:19,700 --> 00:58:22,000 it to Jonathan. Taylor two yards away like they 1135 00:58:22,000 --> 00:58:24,200 might build it. You might see some like, kind 1136 00:58:24,200 --> 00:58:28,400 of, you know, deep like deep and then read the Taylor quick dump 1137 00:58:28,400 --> 00:58:29,700 off. So there might not be a lot of, 1138 00:58:29,700 --> 00:58:33,200 like, underneath, reads for him early on, because he sucks at 1139 00:58:33,200 --> 00:58:36,700 that. So, No, I guess like for me it 1140 00:58:36,700 --> 00:58:40,300 is kind of just the caveman take of like doubt. 1141 00:58:40,300 --> 00:58:43,300 It was really fucking good dude. Like they'll figure out a way to 1142 00:58:43,300 --> 00:58:45,200 get him the ball like and I don't think he'd all the 1143 00:58:45,200 --> 00:58:46,900 touchdowns are going the quarterback and I don't think 1144 00:58:46,900 --> 00:58:48,500 he's not going to catch any passes this year. 1145 00:58:48,500 --> 00:58:51,300 So like, if the offense is going to be better and Jonathan 1146 00:58:51,300 --> 00:58:54,300 Taylor, still healthy and young, I'm gonna take Jonathan Taylor 1147 00:58:55,900 --> 00:59:00,100 It's a fair argument with that. I will still be fitting with 1148 00:59:00,100 --> 00:59:02,000 that price but I totally realize are coming from. 1149 00:59:02,000 --> 00:59:06,800 Let's move on to this chart here largest ATP Rogers since last 1150 00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:09,600 time we talked so about the last 10 days. 1151 00:59:10,300 --> 00:59:12,700 No surprises. Number one of the start talking 1152 00:59:12,700 --> 00:59:16,200 about meaning players up draft boards, Anthony Richardson is 1153 00:59:16,500 --> 00:59:19,800 hydro-jetting all imperator. I'm sad to report. 1154 00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:24,700 This had to report that a person is just simply under affable at 1155 00:59:24,700 --> 00:59:28,200 these prices. Come on, guys, get him in the 1156 00:59:28,200 --> 00:59:29,300 puppy, you know, get him in the pub. 1157 00:59:29,300 --> 00:59:30,700 Yeah. You have to do with the same 1158 00:59:30,700 --> 00:59:32,100 price, you might as well just take them. 1159 00:59:32,300 --> 00:59:36,900 Yeah, no, I'm with that. But I just like, what, what's 1160 00:59:36,900 --> 00:59:41,200 going to happen to his ATP? When we started to hear the 1161 00:59:41,200 --> 00:59:43,200 first inklings that Gardner Minshew is going to start in 1162 00:59:43,200 --> 00:59:44,900 week one. I don't think he is, man. 1163 00:59:45,300 --> 00:59:46,600 I don't think you're getting those reports. 1164 00:59:47,500 --> 00:59:49,600 They were, they were pretty, they were pretty emphatic. 1165 00:59:49,600 --> 00:59:52,800 That, that I forget, I forget that you're mr. 1166 00:59:52,800 --> 00:59:55,500 Press conference, I don't know, man. 1167 00:59:55,700 --> 00:59:58,400 It's just a lot. He started 13 games in college. 1168 00:59:59,000 --> 01:00:01,200 Hey Josh, Nora swatches, the press conference is to and he 1169 01:00:01,200 --> 01:00:03,100 was saying the same thing. Evan Silva saying the same 1170 01:00:03,100 --> 01:00:05,900 thing, the press conference gang, we think this guy's 1171 01:00:05,900 --> 01:00:08,200 playing, okay, he's playing out of the gate. 1172 01:00:08,400 --> 01:00:13,400 I mean, I can't possibly stomach not having Anthony Richardson, 1173 01:00:13,400 --> 01:00:15,900 if he runs for 15 touchdowns. So, like, I'm gonna take him a 1174 01:00:15,908 --> 01:00:19,200 little bit, but I don't think, I don't think this is a 1175 01:00:19,200 --> 01:00:22,900 particularly good ATP. Where would you? 1176 01:00:23,300 --> 01:00:27,000 Because to me I like honestly, I am still Will taking him some. 1177 01:00:27,100 --> 01:00:32,100 I think, I think an equitable spot for him at quarterback is 1178 01:00:32,100 --> 01:00:36,500 like right after Dak, right sodac. 1179 01:00:36,500 --> 01:00:40,000 And to, uh, like I would take daken to ahead of him honestly. 1180 01:00:40,000 --> 01:00:42,200 Partly? Just because of how good to a 1181 01:00:42,200 --> 01:00:45,500 stacking partners are for week, 17 stuff, you know, like, having 1182 01:00:45,500 --> 01:00:48,700 Tyreke and waddle. Obviously I'm never, like, I 1183 01:00:48,707 --> 01:00:51,000 don't think I've ever taken to a not had those guys. 1184 01:00:51,000 --> 01:00:53,400 So, that's when the game we're playing gets a little bit weird, 1185 01:00:53,500 --> 01:00:55,500 and it starts to be less about individual. 1186 01:00:55,600 --> 01:01:00,800 Valuations, you know, but yeah, I think quarterback 12 or 13 is 1187 01:01:00,800 --> 01:01:03,700 right about where he should be. I think he clearly has a higher 1188 01:01:03,700 --> 01:01:08,400 one week ceiling than Daniel Jones Kirk Cousins, maybe Aaron 1189 01:01:08,400 --> 01:01:09,500 Rodgers. I mean, I don't know. 1190 01:01:09,500 --> 01:01:11,900 Are Roger, maybe Aaron Rodgers turns back, the dial and his 1191 01:01:11,900 --> 01:01:15,300 throne, 400 yards and four touchdowns, again, I don't think 1192 01:01:15,300 --> 01:01:18,700 so, but it could happen. Yeah. 1193 01:01:18,700 --> 01:01:21,900 I mean if I have you know the stacking Partners I'm going to 1194 01:01:22,500 --> 01:01:26,300 but you do get to a spot in the drafts or this like not a ton of 1195 01:01:26,300 --> 01:01:29,200 opportunity cost. That is the other thing too, is, 1196 01:01:29,200 --> 01:01:32,200 it's kind of sad. They're the and like I've said, 1197 01:01:32,200 --> 01:01:37,300 I've lined up, I got Tyler Lockett and jsn on a team and I 1198 01:01:37,300 --> 01:01:42,600 lined up a Gino thing and Gino went at like pick 99 so I'm like 1199 01:01:42,600 --> 01:01:45,100 what the fuck? You know like I can't even get 1200 01:01:45,500 --> 01:01:48,400 so Gina pick 99. Like, I'm an idiot. 1201 01:01:48,400 --> 01:01:50,300 Ur taking Richardson, it like 80. 1202 01:01:51,200 --> 01:01:56,200 I feel fine now, that's fine. Yeah, so I actually to me I'm 1203 01:01:56,200 --> 01:01:58,600 like, I don't mind taking him over overt act. 1204 01:01:58,600 --> 01:02:01,300 Like we know what McCarthy's going to do is going to ruin the 1205 01:02:01,300 --> 01:02:02,900 fun. So that's yeah, that's true. 1206 01:02:02,900 --> 01:02:06,200 I guess I'm thinking Dak that I know and love not the doctor. 1207 01:02:06,200 --> 01:02:08,500 We're about to see. So yeah. 1208 01:02:08,500 --> 01:02:11,800 I think I think Richardson actually is going to rise a 1209 01:02:11,800 --> 01:02:14,100 little more because I don't think people are done. 1210 01:02:14,100 --> 01:02:16,100 I don't think everybody. Some people are starting to be 1211 01:02:16,100 --> 01:02:17,100 like I'm good. I'm good. 1212 01:02:17,200 --> 01:02:21,900 But like I think he's I can he's keep Rising, I think he's gonna 1213 01:02:21,900 --> 01:02:25,400 go. I think he's going to go into 1214 01:02:25,400 --> 01:02:27,500 the mid-70s. That's where I think that's when 1215 01:02:27,500 --> 01:02:28,900 I think people will start. Okay. 1216 01:02:28,900 --> 01:02:31,100 They'll like really freaked out and be like, dude, what is 1217 01:02:31,100 --> 01:02:33,700 happening? We, we can't do this, but until 1218 01:02:33,700 --> 01:02:35,500 we're in the mid 70s, I don't think it stops. 1219 01:02:36,000 --> 01:02:37,700 So a couple things I want to point out. 1220 01:02:37,700 --> 01:02:42,500 I did a ATP pole and that's that was the consensus. 1221 01:02:43,300 --> 01:02:46,900 The majority of people said in the 60 to 75 range. 1222 01:02:46,900 --> 01:02:50,100 So yeah, call that someone the middle around pick 70 but I even 1223 01:02:50,100 --> 01:02:52,800 higher than what I thought. Yeah, that was the majority. 1224 01:02:52,900 --> 01:02:57,100 D of response is my take is like, I think he will get there 1225 01:02:57,100 --> 01:03:00,200 in the next couple weeks, but then I think there's going to be 1226 01:03:00,200 --> 01:03:02,400 a bit of a boomerang effect at some point. 1227 01:03:02,500 --> 01:03:04,600 I'm not saying that we're going to get the Gardner. 1228 01:03:04,600 --> 01:03:06,900 Minshew is starting Camp, narratives or anything like 1229 01:03:06,900 --> 01:03:08,600 that. I just think it's honestly like 1230 01:03:08,600 --> 01:03:11,900 a combination of, you know, maybe some some reports like 1231 01:03:12,100 --> 01:03:14,900 he's looks a little rust or, you know, looks a little rusty out 1232 01:03:14,900 --> 01:03:18,500 there doesn't know all the offensive Concepts plus, you 1233 01:03:18,508 --> 01:03:22,500 know people who aren't sick like us and our casual college 1234 01:03:22,500 --> 01:03:24,500 football. Ends are going to open the ADP 1235 01:03:24,500 --> 01:03:27,800 and be like that quarterback from Florida who was terrible 1236 01:03:27,800 --> 01:03:31,200 last year is going at, pick 75 like fuck that. 1237 01:03:31,200 --> 01:03:33,400 I'm taking Dak Prescott, that's a good point. 1238 01:03:33,900 --> 01:03:36,600 There's going to be that influx of people who are going to be 1239 01:03:36,600 --> 01:03:38,600 like, who either. Who is this guy? 1240 01:03:38,600 --> 01:03:41,100 Never heard of them, or I follow college football. 1241 01:03:41,100 --> 01:03:44,700 This guy was not that good. So I think like by September, 1242 01:03:44,700 --> 01:03:48,400 it'll go back, I'm guessing like 90 ish. 1243 01:03:48,400 --> 01:03:50,700 So I think like close to where he is now. 1244 01:03:51,700 --> 01:03:54,700 That's, that's my real. A on it, my take on his value 1245 01:03:54,700 --> 01:03:59,200 is. I think he is fine where he is 1246 01:03:59,200 --> 01:04:01,500 now but like no longer a huge value. 1247 01:04:01,900 --> 01:04:06,300 And like if he goes to 70 60 I'm like probably completely out but 1248 01:04:06,300 --> 01:04:09,000 like at 85 I'm still like I'm kind of with you guys. 1249 01:04:09,000 --> 01:04:12,400 Like yeah, opportunity cost doesn't seem that high, you 1250 01:04:12,400 --> 01:04:14,900 know, if I have, you know, stacking partner for Dallas or 1251 01:04:14,900 --> 01:04:17,600 Miami, I'm probably taking d'accord to over him, but other 1252 01:04:17,600 --> 01:04:21,600 than that like to be ten, seems okay to me. 1253 01:04:21,607 --> 01:04:23,900 Yeah. At this point, I like your read 1254 01:04:23,900 --> 01:04:25,400 that feels like what's going to happen. 1255 01:04:25,800 --> 01:04:28,300 He's going to go up and then he'll come back down a bit. 1256 01:04:29,100 --> 01:04:31,300 We saw that with his. Yeah, we saw that. 1257 01:04:31,300 --> 01:04:33,100 Maybe I last year. Sorry, go ahead. 1258 01:04:33,800 --> 01:04:35,500 Let's just say, get your kicks in the puppy. 1259 01:04:35,500 --> 01:04:37,600 If you feel like you don't have enough Anthony Richardson, go 1260 01:04:37,600 --> 01:04:42,200 get your Anthony Richardson the puppy because that's a close 1261 01:04:42,200 --> 01:04:46,200 tournament. But if you buy what Sam sann and 1262 01:04:46,200 --> 01:04:50,300 I think it's a good point, then this is probably the worst time 1263 01:04:50,300 --> 01:04:56,100 to draft him invest on Mania. Yeah, I think that's true. 1264 01:04:57,100 --> 01:04:58,600 I'm kind of with you, and it's just like, there's some 1265 01:04:58,600 --> 01:05:01,700 unpredictability element of it to where you like, take Pittman 1266 01:05:01,700 --> 01:05:05,100 and you're like, do I need to take Richardson out like 66 now 1267 01:05:05,100 --> 01:05:08,400 to make sure I get them are like crazy, like, how do I even stack 1268 01:05:08,400 --> 01:05:09,800 this? Like you get so insecure about 1269 01:05:09,800 --> 01:05:12,700 it because there's these psychos taking them, you know, super 1270 01:05:12,700 --> 01:05:14,500 early. So we'll Pippins probably better 1271 01:05:14,500 --> 01:05:16,700 off if they start Minshew and in all honesty. 1272 01:05:16,700 --> 01:05:20,000 So I wouldn't. Yeah, I wouldn't reach for 1273 01:05:20,300 --> 01:05:23,600 Richardson too much but I've done the same thing. 1274 01:05:23,600 --> 01:05:25,900 I do the same thing today. I was like, oh God my gonna 1275 01:05:25,900 --> 01:05:28,000 Richardson. Yeah it's tough. 1276 01:05:28,100 --> 01:05:33,300 Let's move on to another sort of Hot Topic rookie. 1277 01:05:33,300 --> 01:05:36,600 Riser Dalton Kincaid is now up 100. 1278 01:05:36,700 --> 01:05:40,600 Sorry up to pick 116 up 31 spots from last time. 1279 01:05:40,600 --> 01:05:45,600 We talked he is going. I believe at the tight end 11 1280 01:05:45,600 --> 01:05:49,500 over also behind fryer Muth an in-joke you but ahead of guys 1281 01:05:49,500 --> 01:05:51,800 like Dalton Schultz chigga Chung kuo. 1282 01:05:52,000 --> 01:05:54,400 Welcome at Greg. Dosage, Etc. 1283 01:05:54,900 --> 01:05:56,700 Davis. I so in my opinion, this is 1284 01:05:56,700 --> 01:06:00,600 going to come down to how do you project Buffalo's slot, wide 1285 01:06:00,600 --> 01:06:03,300 receiver rotation. I can't get with this man. 1286 01:06:03,700 --> 01:06:07,400 Yeah, so tell us tell us why why you think this is bad ATP. 1287 01:06:08,000 --> 01:06:11,900 I mean so like it starts with pre-draft stuff where he didn't 1288 01:06:11,900 --> 01:06:15,200 work out at all. Now obviously he was like a good 1289 01:06:15,400 --> 01:06:19,100 receiving Prospect, you know, he was good at Utah but so is 1290 01:06:19,100 --> 01:06:21,800 Michael Mayer and Michael Mayer. Worked out. 1291 01:06:22,400 --> 01:06:26,200 That makes me like him more which is not, not that I think 1292 01:06:26,200 --> 01:06:30,000 Dalton Kate is, you know, likely Smith out there like unable like 1293 01:06:30,000 --> 01:06:31,700 it, not a good athlete or whatever. 1294 01:06:32,100 --> 01:06:35,200 But then also it's just like a lot of, like, well, okay, it's 1295 01:06:35,200 --> 01:06:38,200 Dawson, knocks dead, I don't know. 1296 01:06:40,000 --> 01:06:44,400 So, what Liam Liam, obviously, the bowl Liam's thing is like 1297 01:06:44,400 --> 01:06:47,600 Khalil Shakir, Deonte already like don't exist, right? 1298 01:06:47,600 --> 01:06:50,600 It's like, these guys are afterthoughts because the bills 1299 01:06:50,600 --> 01:06:53,700 really want adult and can go And he really is just going to be 1300 01:06:53,900 --> 01:06:57,000 he's they it's what he's Kyle pits, right? 1301 01:06:57,700 --> 01:07:00,900 That's that's really what these people are saying is that he is 1302 01:07:01,200 --> 01:07:03,800 not really going to be asked to block and he's just going to be 1303 01:07:03,800 --> 01:07:06,100 a slot wide receiver on a good offense. 1304 01:07:06,700 --> 01:07:09,700 God, I mean, carpets never played on a good offense, but I 1305 01:07:09,700 --> 01:07:13,600 don't know. I like Meyer, 90 pics cheaper. 1306 01:07:13,600 --> 01:07:20,600 Personally, That's fair Pat and he any hope for Kincaid of this 1307 01:07:20,600 --> 01:07:23,800 ATP or you you on Davis aside are you more interested? 1308 01:07:25,100 --> 01:07:29,300 This feels too hot. I mean, 116 like he's the tight 1309 01:07:29,300 --> 01:07:32,700 end. 11. Yeah, that's really, really 1310 01:07:32,700 --> 01:07:35,500 high. I don't know. 1311 01:07:35,500 --> 01:07:40,800 I mean like I said originally I was like look this is a 1312 01:07:40,800 --> 01:07:43,900 fourteenth round type of pick like this is a guy that you're 1313 01:07:43,900 --> 01:07:46,800 like hoping for playoffs bike weeks from, you know, he's not 1314 01:07:46,800 --> 01:07:49,900 going to be a regular contributor because he's not 1315 01:07:49,900 --> 01:07:51,900 going to be actually playing all that much. 1316 01:07:52,400 --> 01:07:54,700 He's just not like Dawson. Knox is going to be out there. 1317 01:07:54,900 --> 01:07:57,600 Time as the tight end. I mean, they're there. 1318 01:07:57,600 --> 01:08:01,100 I know they're saying like oh our are too tight end sets now 1319 01:08:01,100 --> 01:08:05,300 like a three wide receiver set but like teams always going to 1320 01:08:05,300 --> 01:08:07,700 say stuff like that, they just drafted in the first round. 1321 01:08:08,000 --> 01:08:09,800 They're not actually going to play a tight end. 1322 01:08:09,800 --> 01:08:11,500 Is there full time, slot, receiver? 1323 01:08:11,900 --> 01:08:16,899 That's that's just, I mean I am ready to be like really wrong 1324 01:08:16,899 --> 01:08:18,899 about that because it's just, like, not wrong. 1325 01:08:18,899 --> 01:08:20,800 How long are you gonna be how wrong? 1326 01:08:20,800 --> 01:08:23,000 Like, what would Dalton Kincaid have to do? 1327 01:08:23,800 --> 01:08:27,700 Like like, you know, tied in six is like nothing. 1328 01:08:27,800 --> 01:08:31,500 Don't like if Dalton can gauge finishes tied in six with 180 1329 01:08:33,100 --> 01:08:35,500 Half Point. PPR points and scores 12 points 1330 01:08:35,500 --> 01:08:38,200 in week 17, it affected you none. 1331 01:08:38,399 --> 01:08:44,800 They just didn't matter. Yeah, well in sorry, but past 1332 01:08:44,800 --> 01:08:52,399 snaps Kyle pits played. 22% of his past snaps in line as a 1333 01:08:52,407 --> 01:08:55,500 rookie. You don't want to lose those. 1334 01:08:56,300 --> 01:08:59,300 You know, you like we talked about Titans blocking verse 1335 01:08:59,300 --> 01:09:01,899 running routes. Like I mean, maybe Arthur Smith 1336 01:09:01,899 --> 01:09:04,899 would do this but generally they're not at the bills are not 1337 01:09:04,899 --> 01:09:09,600 going to have a tight end blocking on, passing plays all 1338 01:09:09,600 --> 01:09:12,399 that often, it's going to be like the blocking component is 1339 01:09:12,399 --> 01:09:17,399 about run blocking, so the ability to be in line. 1340 01:09:17,899 --> 01:09:20,700 Maybe you're looking like you're going to run and this play 1341 01:09:20,700 --> 01:09:23,700 action play. You want your guy out there. 1342 01:09:23,899 --> 01:09:26,399 You want him in line as a traditional tight end for the 1343 01:09:26,399 --> 01:09:28,500 big chunk of snaps that he's going to have to play. 1344 01:09:28,700 --> 01:09:30,600 Because he is technically a tight end. 1345 01:09:30,600 --> 01:09:34,700 Even if like Kyle pits, he's basically a receiver Kyle pits. 1346 01:09:34,700 --> 01:09:37,000 You know. He played over 40% of his snaps 1347 01:09:37,300 --> 01:09:39,899 in the slot. He also played over a third of 1348 01:09:39,899 --> 01:09:43,200 his snaps out wide. I don't think Dalton can Kate's 1349 01:09:43,200 --> 01:09:45,899 doing that. So I think I don't know the cow 1350 01:09:45,899 --> 01:09:50,399 pit stuff like even even that's like even he isn't that guy, 1351 01:09:50,399 --> 01:09:54,200 he's not Kyle pits that way partly because he's not even 1352 01:09:54,400 --> 01:09:57,300 going to have a chance to play. Like as traditionally as Kyle 1353 01:09:57,300 --> 01:10:00,000 pits Dawson Knox is going to get all that in line stuff. 1354 01:10:00,200 --> 01:10:04,800 Let me give you like a less bullish case than Kyle pits in 1355 01:10:04,800 --> 01:10:07,500 terms of rookie year. Roll what about what the Broncos 1356 01:10:07,500 --> 01:10:10,400 of the Craig dulcich last year. I think they essentially. 1357 01:10:10,500 --> 01:10:14,500 So I'm looking at I'm pulling up this old statue, sitting side of 1358 01:10:14,500 --> 01:10:16,700 us. Kind of a touchy topic Sam. 1359 01:10:16,700 --> 01:10:18,500 Yeah. So, I wanna go. 1360 01:10:18,500 --> 01:10:19,900 Yeah. Should we remove Davis from the 1361 01:10:19,907 --> 01:10:21,000 stream? All we talk about Greg Bell 1362 01:10:21,000 --> 01:10:24,800 Stitch, we might need. Anyways, I'm looking at Weeks 1363 01:10:24,800 --> 01:10:27,300 ten to thirteen last year. So this is a snapshot in time 1364 01:10:27,300 --> 01:10:30,100 not the whole year. Greg dulcich had like an 80% 1365 01:10:30,100 --> 01:10:32,000 route rate if I remember correctly and I don't have the 1366 01:10:32,000 --> 01:10:36,700 numbers right now, that was heavily like a slot, basically a 1367 01:10:36,700 --> 01:10:42,400 slot wide receiver role so 3% in line 33 percent in line but but 1368 01:10:42,400 --> 01:10:45,500 still that's like. So that what I'm saying? 1369 01:10:45,500 --> 01:10:47,400 I guess. Like I'm agree with you. 1370 01:10:47,500 --> 01:10:49,800 As I'm just trying to make devil's advocate case, like what 1371 01:10:49,800 --> 01:10:56,100 if Kincaid plays all too tight end sets and is like the tide 1372 01:10:56,100 --> 01:10:57,400 out, who's running the pass route? 1373 01:10:57,500 --> 01:11:00,700 Knox is in the block and then in three wide receiver sets, he 1374 01:11:00,700 --> 01:11:05,000 mixes in on like half of those. Like that's not crazy. 1375 01:11:05,100 --> 01:11:06,500 I think he's got to beat out knocks. 1376 01:11:06,500 --> 01:11:10,900 Basically Knox has to be the guy coming in for extra stuff, and 1377 01:11:10,900 --> 01:11:13,900 he's got to be the guy out there in line playing regular tight 1378 01:11:13,900 --> 01:11:16,700 end at this price at this purpose. 1379 01:11:16,700 --> 01:11:18,000 I mean, yeah. Yeah. 1380 01:11:18,000 --> 01:11:21,000 At the at the end of the draft, if you're if you basically just 1381 01:11:21,000 --> 01:11:23,800 have a part-time because what you're talking about otherwise 1382 01:11:23,800 --> 01:11:28,700 is he's running, 55 to 60% of the routes that sucks that's 1383 01:11:28,700 --> 01:11:31,400 like that's what the cult situation from years past like 1384 01:11:31,700 --> 01:11:33,800 that is. And we do see that in the NFL 1385 01:11:33,800 --> 01:11:36,100 that's not uncommon that they would have a tight end room 1386 01:11:36,100 --> 01:11:40,000 where like, you know, one guy runs 45 percent around 21 guys 1387 01:11:40,000 --> 01:11:41,900 run at 55 or whatever. They split it up. 1388 01:11:42,900 --> 01:11:45,700 And they'll be, they'll be well over a hundred percent because 1389 01:11:45,700 --> 01:11:48,000 they will run this this too tight end set. 1390 01:11:48,000 --> 01:11:50,600 That's basically a three wide receiver thing, a fair amount, 1391 01:11:50,900 --> 01:11:54,900 but not enough, I don't think enough, he's got a and I'm not 1392 01:11:54,900 --> 01:11:58,700 saying you can't beat out knocks but I think it's like maybe a 1393 01:11:58,700 --> 01:12:00,300 taller order than the market thinks. 1394 01:12:00,300 --> 01:12:03,300 And and I don't even know if that the market agrees that 1395 01:12:03,300 --> 01:12:05,400 that's what they're betting on, but I feel pretty strongly that 1396 01:12:05,400 --> 01:12:07,000 is what they're betting on at this price. 1397 01:12:07,000 --> 01:12:08,900 You're betting on him to beat out knocks to at least some 1398 01:12:08,900 --> 01:12:11,500 degree. Yeah, the thing is like, I want 1399 01:12:11,500 --> 01:12:13,900 to be in on cakes. I stare at that bills pass 1400 01:12:13,900 --> 01:12:18,200 catching core and besides digs, it's like just guys that are not 1401 01:12:18,200 --> 01:12:21,500 good at learning targets Gabe. Davis, you know, Dawson knocks 1402 01:12:21,500 --> 01:12:25,600 like Deonte Hardy and whoever else like man, if they're like, 1403 01:12:25,600 --> 01:12:28,800 there is an opportunity for a number two guy and a tight end 1404 01:12:28,800 --> 01:12:33,700 to step up but I'm with you like it seems unlikely that he earns 1405 01:12:33,700 --> 01:12:38,100 this big role in year one but hey maybe it's a maybe it's a 1406 01:12:38,100 --> 01:12:43,000 week 15 through 17 play. But yeah, I think I'm Rowley 1407 01:12:43,000 --> 01:12:45,600 mostly out on this price unless I have unless I have Joshua 1408 01:12:45,600 --> 01:12:48,300 Allen and then I'm going to say fuck it and take him. 1409 01:12:48,300 --> 01:12:51,400 Yeah, I mean, right, so so much of that, come so much of. 1410 01:12:51,407 --> 01:12:55,700 It does literally come down to. Yeah, just take them when you're 1411 01:12:55,700 --> 01:12:58,000 stacking, right? I might take knocks dude, if 1412 01:12:58,000 --> 01:13:00,100 you're playing for touchdowns like knox's, took me out. 1413 01:13:00,200 --> 01:13:03,400 Knox is free knocks. Are you gonna do the the Chesley 1414 01:13:03,400 --> 01:13:06,300 em and take both of them? No, I'm saying cases, 1415 01:13:06,300 --> 01:13:10,200 overpriced, I believe I've been clear. 1416 01:13:12,700 --> 01:13:15,100 Okay, I'll give you guys the floor. 1417 01:13:15,700 --> 01:13:18,500 Pat. Any guy on this list? 1418 01:13:18,500 --> 01:13:21,100 That we've talked about guys that we actually don't like 1419 01:13:21,100 --> 01:13:23,000 right now, I'm going to challenge you. 1420 01:13:23,000 --> 01:13:26,200 Give me a guy on this list of a rookie Riser where you're still 1421 01:13:26,200 --> 01:13:30,900 excited about their ATP. Addison still, good Gib still. 1422 01:13:30,900 --> 01:13:35,100 Good rice, still good to me. Mingo, absolutely. 1423 01:13:35,100 --> 01:13:40,500 So unpalatable. So so undoubtable to me at 132 1424 01:13:40,800 --> 01:13:44,300 as Adam thielen You know, jockstrap holder. 1425 01:13:44,900 --> 01:13:46,900 So you're hammering out of the Olympic one. 1426 01:13:46,900 --> 01:13:49,300 No I don't. I literally I maybe have not 1427 01:13:49,300 --> 01:13:52,200 taken a Carolina Panther yet. I wonder I wonder if I've taken 1428 01:13:52,200 --> 01:13:56,300 a single Panthers player, I maybe haven't so I have a 1429 01:13:56,308 --> 01:13:58,700 sickness for and this is probably only need to get out of 1430 01:13:58,700 --> 01:14:02,200 my game but I have a sickness for the really fucking cheap 1431 01:14:02,200 --> 01:14:04,000 Stacks. The text is the Panthers. 1432 01:14:04,000 --> 01:14:06,600 You Patriots told me you're not still doing a feeling thing. 1433 01:14:06,600 --> 01:14:08,300 Hey yeah I'm not doing the feeling thing. 1434 01:14:08,300 --> 01:14:10,800 I'm doing my thing. Now I've moved on it was never 1435 01:14:10,800 --> 01:14:13,300 really doing the feel nothing but there Here's something 1436 01:14:16,700 --> 01:14:19,900 that's debatable. No, no no one can fact, check my 1437 01:14:19,900 --> 01:14:25,600 exposures will get the data next year, but like, to jump to this 1438 01:14:25,600 --> 01:14:28,300 team start chart for a second. Like there's this thing. 1439 01:14:28,300 --> 01:14:30,000 Look at look at Carolina, look at Houston. 1440 01:14:30,000 --> 01:14:31,900 Look at New England. Look at the Titans. 1441 01:14:31,900 --> 01:14:35,000 If you're if you're actually that sick if one of these teams 1442 01:14:35,000 --> 01:14:39,600 is just like League average and you take the full game stack, 1443 01:14:39,600 --> 01:14:41,500 that's actually like huge leverage. 1444 01:14:42,100 --> 01:14:45,500 I kind of Of the Jags last year like Trevor Lawrence. 1445 01:14:45,700 --> 01:14:51,000 Evan engram Zeta-Jones rounds 12. 16 18, boom, your team's 1446 01:14:51,000 --> 01:14:53,300 going to advance, right? Like and I think you can kind of 1447 01:14:53,308 --> 01:14:55,800 make cases with Stroud with Bryce young. 1448 01:14:55,900 --> 01:14:58,100 You pick the right pass, catchers, you pick the tight 1449 01:14:58,100 --> 01:14:59,800 end. So like that's why I'm not 1450 01:14:59,800 --> 01:15:02,000 saying draft Feelin. I'm saying that's why I'm okay 1451 01:15:02,000 --> 01:15:05,900 with mango because it comes in such a cheap package of stacks 1452 01:15:06,200 --> 01:15:09,400 that like if you get that, right, that's actually huge. 1453 01:15:09,400 --> 01:15:13,600 Huge leverage for your team. I think I I completely agree. 1454 01:15:13,600 --> 01:15:16,900 I think you don't even have to take the quarterback. 1455 01:15:17,100 --> 01:15:22,300 You know, you can have you can get like, and I love chuba 1456 01:15:22,300 --> 01:15:25,400 Hubbard where he goes Mi Sanders is cheap enough where I'm still 1457 01:15:25,400 --> 01:15:27,900 taking him even though I think he's like the Prototype of a 1458 01:15:27,900 --> 01:15:30,700 dead zone running back which is telling you know, I think pretty 1459 01:15:30,700 --> 01:15:32,700 strong indication the market has shifted in some big ways. 1460 01:15:33,200 --> 01:15:34,400 So yeah. I'll still take him in like the 1461 01:15:34,407 --> 01:15:37,300 sixth and then with I will take Mingo. 1462 01:15:37,400 --> 01:15:40,300 I actually don't hate where mangoes going and I'm partly 1463 01:15:40,300 --> 01:15:44,500 because I think this isn't where he Ops, I think mingoes going to 1464 01:15:44,500 --> 01:15:46,500 keep going up. I think he's going to be more of 1465 01:15:46,500 --> 01:15:50,900 like a tenth eleventh, like 10th because he's crabby 11th. 1466 01:15:51,100 --> 01:15:53,200 I'm kind of with you on on Mingo. 1467 01:15:53,200 --> 01:15:55,900 I mean, remember, we did this. The Panthers are going to be the 1468 01:15:55,900 --> 01:16:01,200 Panthers are going to be the 27th offense in the NFL, but 1469 01:16:01,300 --> 01:16:04,700 there's no target competition and they just took them with 1470 01:16:04,700 --> 01:16:07,700 like, was the 39th pick honestly, and I don't know. 1471 01:16:07,700 --> 01:16:10,400 You guys are no more about this. The meat is that like ever work 1472 01:16:10,400 --> 01:16:14,000 out or in a team, just has like, Eight shitty guys. 1473 01:16:14,000 --> 01:16:17,100 And you're like, one of them could be not shitty, like I 1474 01:16:17,108 --> 01:16:19,700 don't know. Does it ever work out? 1475 01:16:19,700 --> 01:16:21,100 It's, you know, there actually has been. 1476 01:16:21,100 --> 01:16:23,400 Who's, who's the best wide receiver on the Texans. 1477 01:16:23,400 --> 01:16:28,100 Last year, I see your point in the extreme scenario, where the 1478 01:16:28,100 --> 01:16:30,900 offense really does. Suck your right, but there has 1479 01:16:30,900 --> 01:16:33,300 been some research. I think JJ Zachary Smith has 1480 01:16:33,300 --> 01:16:35,400 done this like, where you get into the later rounds. 1481 01:16:35,400 --> 01:16:38,800 Your Best Bets are the wide receiver ones on a team. 1482 01:16:38,800 --> 01:16:41,100 Like, once you're in like I think this is like I would buy 1483 01:16:41,100 --> 01:16:42,400 that house. Oh yeah. 1484 01:16:42,800 --> 01:16:46,000 You get to a certain point like am I going to take Mingo or like 1485 01:16:46,200 --> 01:16:49,700 Tyler boy, who I know is just the water 03 on the Bangles or 1486 01:16:49,700 --> 01:16:52,700 like, you know, am I gonna take Donovan people's Jones who is 1487 01:16:52,700 --> 01:16:56,500 just like fifth in line for Targets on the the Browns are 1488 01:16:56,500 --> 01:16:57,900 like? You know, I'm sure you can come 1489 01:16:57,900 --> 01:17:00,600 up with better examples and me, but that's kind of hard in this 1490 01:17:00,600 --> 01:17:03,200 range. Like a lot of receivers are just 1491 01:17:03,200 --> 01:17:05,500 saying, I'm gonna get Davis back, I'm gonna get those back 1492 01:17:05,700 --> 01:17:08,500 Davis. Jonathan mango is six foot two. 1493 01:17:08,900 --> 01:17:12,000 He's 220 pounds. You're not talking to your ahead 1494 01:17:12,000 --> 01:17:15,500 of the A two-year-old me, just just remember what it was like 1495 01:17:15,500 --> 01:17:18,000 to be young, dude, just remember what it's like to be young. 1496 01:17:18,000 --> 01:17:20,500 Your hair never grows. You know what good it is? 1497 01:17:20,500 --> 01:17:24,400 39, average, vert, what I remember about that is Stephen 1498 01:17:24,400 --> 01:17:28,800 Hill going for 150 yards and two touchdowns in his first NFL game 1499 01:17:28,800 --> 01:17:30,500 and then never be heard from again. 1500 01:17:30,500 --> 01:17:32,500 Just disappearing. Like the Loch, Ness monster, 1501 01:17:32,500 --> 01:17:34,900 just go Cole of Stephen Hill. That's too good. 1502 01:17:34,900 --> 01:17:36,600 Let's do accurate. Yeah. 1503 01:17:36,700 --> 01:17:40,400 He he, he evaporated, dude, it was too much. 1504 01:17:40,600 --> 01:17:46,400 No, but I am Come on. Like, if Sky more had not just 1505 01:17:46,400 --> 01:17:49,300 happened. Rice would be a ninth round. 1506 01:17:49,300 --> 01:17:51,400 Pick already. Honestly, I honest to God. 1507 01:17:51,400 --> 01:17:53,100 I really would. I kind of agree. 1508 01:17:53,100 --> 01:17:54,700 I think you're right. Or you're right. 1509 01:17:55,300 --> 01:17:58,900 I like rice at this price, mostly because I don't really 1510 01:17:58,900 --> 01:18:05,000 like Sky more and I think Tony's fine, but you just have fun is 1511 01:18:05,000 --> 01:18:06,900 Tony rocketing up, dude. I don't know. 1512 01:18:07,100 --> 01:18:09,500 Hey it's here. It seems actually kind of 1513 01:18:09,500 --> 01:18:11,500 insane. They didn't have laid him last 1514 01:18:11,500 --> 01:18:12,400 year. They did. 1515 01:18:12,600 --> 01:18:14,700 Sort of like now he's not ready and I know they're saying, oh 1516 01:18:14,700 --> 01:18:18,000 God, he's so good, he's so good at everything but like, you 1517 01:18:18,000 --> 01:18:21,300 know, it's not good at getting on the field ever, it doesn't do 1518 01:18:21,300 --> 01:18:23,600 that very well. That's a problem for us. 1519 01:18:23,800 --> 01:18:26,700 Hey, when he gets on the field though it's electric was it. 1520 01:18:27,300 --> 01:18:31,700 He's top five in the NFL last two years and targets per outrun 1521 01:18:31,700 --> 01:18:33,700 because he runs like six or only game. 1522 01:18:34,100 --> 01:18:35,900 Yeah. All 50 of them. 1523 01:18:38,100 --> 01:18:40,000 Yeah. Those little 12 targets and 1524 01:18:40,000 --> 01:18:41,800 thirty seven rounds. Really? 1525 01:18:43,500 --> 01:18:46,200 L don't want to know is that he's just fancy Dexter 1526 01:18:46,200 --> 01:18:50,000 McCluster. Oh god. 1527 01:18:50,900 --> 01:18:52,700 Oh man. That's that's tough. 1528 01:18:52,700 --> 01:18:56,500 That being said, I'm not going to be caught with my pants down 1529 01:18:56,500 --> 01:18:58,300 on canaries. Tony, I'm going to have 18 1530 01:18:58,300 --> 01:19:00,200 percent of this dude, come hell or high water. 1531 01:19:01,600 --> 01:19:06,400 I mean, I'm look when I have my home's, I do try to get Tony, I 1532 01:19:06,400 --> 01:19:10,000 try my try my best, but I mean, if he's going to get a lot more 1533 01:19:10,000 --> 01:19:13,600 expensive than this, like, He's got like every French flag there 1534 01:19:13,600 --> 01:19:15,700 is outside. Like will he will get more 1535 01:19:15,700 --> 01:19:18,000 expensive because as long as he doesn't get hurt in the 1536 01:19:18,008 --> 01:19:20,200 preseason, they're going to keep gassing him up. 1537 01:19:20,500 --> 01:19:24,200 There's there's equally there's good people on both sides of the 1538 01:19:24,300 --> 01:19:26,700 the Tony debate. I think that are gonna keep that 1539 01:19:26,700 --> 01:19:28,500 from that. There's enough people who are 1540 01:19:28,500 --> 01:19:31,200 saying, Tony got four snaps in the Super Bowl last year, versus 1541 01:19:31,200 --> 01:19:35,800 the people are saying he has, you know, a hundred targets per 1542 01:19:35,800 --> 01:19:37,700 round on. So here's the here's the thing 1543 01:19:37,700 --> 01:19:41,500 about because if someone who's just, you know, Setting up for 1544 01:19:41,500 --> 01:19:46,100 snaps super last year. I don't really want to be like 1545 01:19:46,900 --> 01:19:48,500 that. I don't want that to be my brand 1546 01:19:48,500 --> 01:19:51,100 this offseason. So yelling about careers Tony 1547 01:19:51,100 --> 01:19:53,500 because he could certainly hurt me in a big white. 1548 01:19:53,500 --> 01:19:57,400 Dude, he could bury you. He could bury me, he is exactly. 1549 01:19:57,400 --> 01:19:59,800 That's the thing. Could Darius Tony could dead 1550 01:19:59,800 --> 01:20:02,700 ass. Yeah, that's top-scoring, wide 1551 01:20:02,700 --> 01:20:04,600 receiver in fantasy, he really could. 1552 01:20:04,600 --> 01:20:06,400 Mmm. Okay, well, you've lost me no 1553 01:20:06,500 --> 01:20:12,100 but he is going quickly quickly if he I'm scoring wide receiver. 1554 01:20:12,400 --> 01:20:16,700 Kelsey Kelsey gets injured. We doesn't help to get injured 1555 01:20:17,000 --> 01:20:19,100 180 Target. He stays healthy. 1556 01:20:19,200 --> 01:20:22,000 He maintains something like his targets per outrun as a 1557 01:20:22,000 --> 01:20:25,000 full-time player and his targets are coming from Patrick mom's. 1558 01:20:25,700 --> 01:20:30,100 Well, my here's my, my point is that I'm, I'm not going to be 1559 01:20:30,100 --> 01:20:33,900 vocally, you know, tweeting up a storm, banging the table. 1560 01:20:33,900 --> 01:20:35,600 And every podcast, saying what are we doing with carriers, 1561 01:20:35,600 --> 01:20:38,400 Tony? I get it, I get the upside, we 1562 01:20:38,400 --> 01:20:42,000 want to chase the upside. I Probably will be underweight, 1563 01:20:42,000 --> 01:20:45,900 Tony, and be nervous. So I actually don't, I don't 1564 01:20:45,900 --> 01:20:50,100 know, Sam, that there's going to be a contingent brave enough to 1565 01:20:50,100 --> 01:20:52,500 push that out since you're saying, I think, I think he is 1566 01:20:52,500 --> 01:20:55,400 gonna go keep going. If the Tony haters are feeling 1567 01:20:55,400 --> 01:20:58,900 confident, I do think he's going to keep Rising because, yeah, 1568 01:20:58,900 --> 01:21:02,200 he's not. If you don't, you don't hate 1569 01:21:02,200 --> 01:21:04,300 him. That much silent, majority of 1570 01:21:04,300 --> 01:21:06,700 Tony faders. No crane crane doesn't hate him 1571 01:21:06,700 --> 01:21:08,300 that much because he won't trade him to me. 1572 01:21:08,900 --> 01:21:12,100 I traded him away, dude. And you see, Oh yeah, you got my 1573 01:21:12,100 --> 01:21:16,900 Gavin's, I got Mike Evans, let's talk, let's talk some veterans 1574 01:21:17,900 --> 01:21:21,300 less sexy names on this list. I'll look at this value. 1575 01:21:21,300 --> 01:21:24,100 I'm getting from our game last week, Jerick McKinnon, I mean, 1576 01:21:24,100 --> 01:21:28,000 what a, what a closing line value, it's gummy those those 1577 01:21:28,000 --> 01:21:34,500 ass come here. But man, this is like how many 1578 01:21:34,500 --> 01:21:38,000 this is like the SpongeBob Meme. How many times you have to teach 1579 01:21:38,000 --> 01:21:38,800 you? This old man. 1580 01:21:39,200 --> 01:21:40,500 How many times you have to teach you these? 1581 01:21:40,700 --> 01:21:43,400 Veteran running backs when they fall to one Ed and then they get 1582 01:21:43,400 --> 01:21:46,400 signed automatic 40. Take ATP. 1583 01:21:46,400 --> 01:21:48,500 Yeah, we're getting to a point now. 1584 01:21:48,500 --> 01:21:51,300 We're like it's riskier. We're like cream hunt babies out 1585 01:21:51,300 --> 01:21:54,900 of the league Zeke. I don't know, but like, it's 1586 01:21:54,900 --> 01:21:58,000 just such a consistently good bet this whole offseason. 1587 01:21:58,000 --> 01:22:01,000 Sure, maybe you're left holding the bag on, like one of these 1588 01:22:01,000 --> 01:22:04,600 guys loses out in the end but like penny smash McKinnon. 1589 01:22:04,600 --> 01:22:08,400 Smash Damien Harris. Smash, like, just take the, take 1590 01:22:08,400 --> 01:22:11,400 the free agent, running backs, like I don't know why this is 1591 01:22:11,400 --> 01:22:13,800 this thing of a dynamic. I'll defend the market on 1592 01:22:13,800 --> 01:22:18,000 McKinnon quickly because they didn't want to sign him before 1593 01:22:18,000 --> 01:22:19,800 the draft. There's basically like one team 1594 01:22:19,800 --> 01:22:21,300 that's interested in bringing him back. 1595 01:22:22,000 --> 01:22:24,200 He something happened at the end of last season. 1596 01:22:24,200 --> 01:22:25,800 We got phased out which was super weird. 1597 01:22:25,800 --> 01:22:29,400 He's 31 years old, he could honestly have retired. 1598 01:22:29,800 --> 01:22:34,700 So that's after. But I mean I do if your point is 1599 01:22:34,700 --> 01:22:38,000 we should be taking Leonard, fournette, and holding her nose 1600 01:22:38,000 --> 01:22:40,500 and taking Ezekiel Elliott. You have me. 1601 01:22:40,600 --> 01:22:43,600 The fournette part I still not taking Elliot, but I'm not a 1602 01:22:43,608 --> 01:22:46,500 complete should be. I probably am, I am? 1603 01:22:46,500 --> 01:22:48,400 I'm pretty sure enough. I'm brave enough to do it 1604 01:22:48,400 --> 01:22:53,400 because what what what sits with smart if the thing about Zeke is 1605 01:22:53,500 --> 01:22:57,100 he just exist to Annoy Us. So he's going to sign and get an 1606 01:22:57,100 --> 01:23:00,000 annoying amount of work, but that's what porn addicts is to 1607 01:23:00,000 --> 01:23:02,300 do as well. And I'm like, there's one that's 1608 01:23:02,300 --> 01:23:04,000 gonna end up. There's that there's plenty of 1609 01:23:04,000 --> 01:23:05,700 meat left on this and knowing bone. 1610 01:23:06,300 --> 01:23:08,800 Sure is. Yeah, I think the, like 1611 01:23:08,800 --> 01:23:11,200 narrative that there's gonna, like, run out of A landing spots 1612 01:23:11,200 --> 01:23:14,200 for these guys like once you factor in the one or two 1613 01:23:14,200 --> 01:23:16,400 injuries that are going to happen from now, till then once 1614 01:23:16,400 --> 01:23:20,100 you factor in like maybe briefs all Javonte these like, ACL 1615 01:23:20,100 --> 01:23:22,100 guy's not coming back as well as we expect. 1616 01:23:22,100 --> 01:23:25,900 Like spots are going to free up for these guys they're going to 1617 01:23:25,907 --> 01:23:29,000 get signed. Like it might not be yeah. 1618 01:23:29,300 --> 01:23:33,100 Amazing you might not get, you know, for net on the Bangles 1619 01:23:33,100 --> 01:23:35,600 with mix and getting caught. Like that's that's a fantasy. 1620 01:23:35,600 --> 01:23:39,200 That's probably not gonna happen but they're gonna have some role 1621 01:23:39,900 --> 01:23:41,200 at some point. So here, Here's here's one 1622 01:23:41,200 --> 01:23:43,400 thing. I struggle with okay, for net is 1623 01:23:43,400 --> 01:23:52,100 going at pick, 190, Z is going at, pick 165 to pay a premium to 1624 01:23:52,100 --> 01:23:56,900 get Zeke. And like the issue is I probably 1625 01:23:56,900 --> 01:23:59,700 shouldn't get worked up about that and just take them both. 1626 01:24:00,100 --> 01:24:02,900 But I have a really hard time like I'm making this same exact. 1627 01:24:02,900 --> 01:24:05,200 It feels to me, I'm obviously the it's not there to different 1628 01:24:05,200 --> 01:24:07,000 people who wound up into different situations but it's 1629 01:24:07,000 --> 01:24:11,600 like they're feel like the exact same bet and one cost 36 more 1630 01:24:11,600 --> 01:24:13,300 than the other. So I've had a really hard time 1631 01:24:13,300 --> 01:24:17,400 taking Zeke but I think that's a leak. 1632 01:24:17,400 --> 01:24:19,100 I think I should just mix in Zeke Moore. 1633 01:24:19,600 --> 01:24:22,700 Yeah, I think it's I Am with You Pat. 1634 01:24:22,700 --> 01:24:24,300 I don't have my exposures up right now. 1635 01:24:24,300 --> 01:24:26,800 I probably have like 30 percent For Dad or something. 1636 01:24:26,800 --> 01:24:28,600 Disgusting and likely got you too. 1637 01:24:28,700 --> 01:24:31,700 I'm like, literally zero literally zero Zeke, but like if 1638 01:24:31,700 --> 01:24:33,700 you're taking Zeke, I can't really make the argument against 1639 01:24:33,700 --> 01:24:35,500 it. I think it's just like I'm 1640 01:24:35,500 --> 01:24:37,800 making the same mental calculus as you and I probably should 1641 01:24:37,800 --> 01:24:43,000 just take a little pig. Little Zeke live a little, let's 1642 01:24:43,000 --> 01:24:47,500 talk Lamar Jackson a little bit he's you know, biggest risers, 1643 01:24:47,500 --> 01:24:51,300 second second week in a row man this Lamar Jackson situation. 1644 01:24:51,300 --> 01:24:54,000 I think it's like a little underrated, how exciting it is 1645 01:24:54,000 --> 01:24:57,100 for him, he's dead. With terrible pass. 1646 01:24:57,100 --> 01:25:01,100 Catchers last couple years, all of a sudden, you get Z flowers, 1647 01:25:01,400 --> 01:25:04,200 you know, Rashad Evans coming back, Mark Andrews will be 1648 01:25:04,200 --> 01:25:05,800 there. No matter what you think about 1649 01:25:05,800 --> 01:25:08,200 Dell, I think Odell as a number three wide receiver. 1650 01:25:08,200 --> 01:25:10,700 That's way better than what he's had in years past with, like, 1651 01:25:10,700 --> 01:25:14,300 fucking miles Boykin. And whoever got Isaiah, likely 1652 01:25:14,300 --> 01:25:16,700 pretty talented. Pass-catching tight end number 1653 01:25:16,700 --> 01:25:18,800 two, there's some ladies. Do you want? 1654 01:25:18,800 --> 01:25:20,900 A is like a pretty solid number for this point? 1655 01:25:20,900 --> 01:25:23,100 You don't even a Galore as a field stretching? 1656 01:25:23,100 --> 01:25:25,100 Yeah. Like the depth is just a lot 1657 01:25:25,100 --> 01:25:28,200 better like you're not. Putting out, who's that. 1658 01:25:28,200 --> 01:25:32,500 Road of is like, fifth round tile and walnut Town walls. 1659 01:25:32,900 --> 01:25:34,800 Yeah, you're not putting out miss him every day. 1660 01:25:35,100 --> 01:25:38,200 Yeah I draft. A lot of them at one point my 1661 01:25:38,200 --> 01:25:41,300 life, but anyways, this Ravens pass catcher. 1662 01:25:41,300 --> 01:25:43,600 Core is a lot better than it's ever been. 1663 01:25:44,200 --> 01:25:49,200 I almost wonder like, we saw this this chart of the Lamar 1664 01:25:49,600 --> 01:25:53,100 Andrews, projected ATP. It almost feels to me that like 1665 01:25:53,200 --> 01:25:56,700 it could move to Andrews Lamar. Three turn. 1666 01:25:56,700 --> 01:26:00,000 Like I think that's in the range of outcomes that that could 1667 01:26:00,000 --> 01:26:05,800 happen like a little more jump. One of these quarterbacks I 1668 01:26:05,800 --> 01:26:09,700 think this on stacking partners, he it's just it's so tough for 1669 01:26:09,700 --> 01:26:12,800 him to jump Josh out because people are not gonna look back 1670 01:26:12,800 --> 01:26:14,500 on the last couple years and let that happen. 1671 01:26:14,500 --> 01:26:18,400 So man it's tough but they're there will be some people that 1672 01:26:18,400 --> 01:26:20,300 take him. I think at the two three turn 1673 01:26:20,300 --> 01:26:22,700 and that's going to keep Lamar, I think pretty safely in this 1674 01:26:22,700 --> 01:26:27,300 like 27 to 30 range. I think I think we'll how yeah, 1675 01:26:27,300 --> 01:26:30,100 I think that's right. I think what will happen is he 1676 01:26:30,100 --> 01:26:35,000 will be his ATP will hover around the tooth return pick 1677 01:26:35,100 --> 01:26:37,100 Seven or something. Andrews will be the same and 1678 01:26:37,100 --> 01:26:40,400 some people especially if Alan goes a little earlier than a 1679 01:26:40,407 --> 01:26:43,200 teepee. They'll go I wanted an elite 1680 01:26:43,200 --> 01:26:45,800 quarterback, all three are gone, I'm gone and resume are the 1681 01:26:45,800 --> 01:26:47,400 term. I think you'll see that fair 1682 01:26:47,400 --> 01:26:49,700 amount. I did it today. 1683 01:26:50,000 --> 01:26:51,900 It's kind of fun. I think you'll see that quite a 1684 01:26:51,907 --> 01:26:54,000 bit too. And I also just think that, 1685 01:26:54,000 --> 01:26:58,000 like, the Lamar and then pick pick your choice between flowers 1686 01:26:58,000 --> 01:27:01,600 and Bateman is like a, pretty cheap stack with upset. 1687 01:27:01,600 --> 01:27:05,200 I don't think like season long either flowers, or Bateman are 1688 01:27:05,200 --> 01:27:07,100 gonna, like, absolutely smashed or anything. 1689 01:27:07,300 --> 01:27:10,500 I think just like sees like weekly upside that that 1690 01:27:10,500 --> 01:27:12,500 individual stack pairing with one of those wide receivers, 1691 01:27:12,500 --> 01:27:14,200 just like pretty, pretty exciting. 1692 01:27:14,200 --> 01:27:16,900 So I thought they have been a pretty live to smash. 1693 01:27:17,000 --> 01:27:20,000 Hit a ninth round ATP. He was super efficient last 1694 01:27:20,000 --> 01:27:21,400 year, I don't know what the deal. 1695 01:27:21,400 --> 01:27:23,900 He wasn't running a Full Slate of routes which was super weird 1696 01:27:25,500 --> 01:27:28,000 and maybe he won't this year and that would I was hurt but he 1697 01:27:28,100 --> 01:27:31,500 that's a cheap price tag for a guy with talent and and 1698 01:27:31,900 --> 01:27:33,500 potentially much better situation. 1699 01:27:33,500 --> 01:27:38,500 So yeah, II really like I take him a lot even when I don't have 1700 01:27:38,500 --> 01:27:42,300 a more I'm not going to pretend to be a doctor but like I think 1701 01:27:42,300 --> 01:27:44,700 the Liz, Frank thing is like the one mental block from you, 1702 01:27:44,700 --> 01:27:45,900 getting all the way in on abatement. 1703 01:27:45,900 --> 01:27:48,300 I know that injuries been like pretty tough for people to come 1704 01:27:48,300 --> 01:27:50,400 back from. Um, but again, I agree largely 1705 01:27:50,400 --> 01:27:52,800 I'm taking a lot of Bateman that's like think that that's 1706 01:27:52,800 --> 01:27:55,200 what's depressing is ATP. Honestly, is that that injury 1707 01:27:55,400 --> 01:27:59,100 risk loopback people's minds, but Davis, what are your what 1708 01:27:59,100 --> 01:28:02,300 are your thoughts on on Lamar at this price? 1709 01:28:03,400 --> 01:28:06,800 Yeah, I'm an hundred percent. Yeah, no problem. 1710 01:28:06,800 --> 01:28:08,100 No problem. Clicking that button. 1711 01:28:08,100 --> 01:28:10,900 Like a five, pick discrepancy between him and Justin Fields. 1712 01:28:10,900 --> 01:28:13,500 People II. Don't, I don't think I'm with 1713 01:28:13,500 --> 01:28:15,700 Karina Bateman though back-to-back. 1714 01:28:15,700 --> 01:28:18,600 Here's a, I mean I like in a perfect world. 1715 01:28:18,700 --> 01:28:22,200 World where I could guarantee that his body functions properly 1716 01:28:22,800 --> 01:28:26,500 also there, you know, you hate to say it, but there are some 1717 01:28:26,500 --> 01:28:30,200 murmurings that the team thinks he's soft, right? 1718 01:28:30,300 --> 01:28:34,600 That that they're sort of that, you know, Duvernay is playing 1719 01:28:34,600 --> 01:28:36,700 banged up. You know, we got we got these 1720 01:28:36,900 --> 01:28:39,600 Talent, you know, I mean, how many Anonymous dudes played wide 1721 01:28:39,600 --> 01:28:42,100 receiver for them broke his foot. 1722 01:28:43,100 --> 01:28:46,400 More than ever for injury the year before to it was lower 1723 01:28:46,400 --> 01:28:47,600 body. It was lower body the year 1724 01:28:47,600 --> 01:28:52,000 before to remember it was a bit was abdominals like a preseason 1725 01:28:52,000 --> 01:28:53,700 abdominal injury. That's what it was. 1726 01:28:53,700 --> 01:28:56,400 It was an abdominal thing. I mean, maybe maybe, maybe I'm 1727 01:28:56,400 --> 01:28:57,600 wrong. Maybe, I'm misremembering. 1728 01:28:57,600 --> 01:28:59,500 Maybe I'm applying this to someone it to me. 1729 01:28:59,700 --> 01:29:05,300 The Beckham signing felt like kind of Bateman Insurance. 1730 01:29:05,300 --> 01:29:06,600 Like to have another guy. Yeah. 1731 01:29:06,800 --> 01:29:10,000 On the outside. No I definitely think that's the 1732 01:29:10,000 --> 01:29:11,800 case. Like my concern with Bateman is 1733 01:29:11,800 --> 01:29:15,000 that he Doesn't get full playing time. 1734 01:29:15,200 --> 01:29:16,500 Yeah. But I think that's somewhat 1735 01:29:16,500 --> 01:29:19,100 priced in, he had two point three eight yards per hour on 1736 01:29:19,100 --> 01:29:23,200 last year, which is really good. He was a deep threat. 1737 01:29:23,200 --> 01:29:26,600 He 13 .28. I think that's like what you 1738 01:29:26,600 --> 01:29:31,100 want to see with Lamar Jackson receiver and at a ninth round 1739 01:29:31,100 --> 01:29:32,600 ATP. I mean we're talking like 1740 01:29:32,600 --> 01:29:33,900 Michael Tighe. You want to talk about guys 1741 01:29:33,900 --> 01:29:35,500 worried about their health like he's going next to Michael 1742 01:29:35,500 --> 01:29:37,100 Thomas. It's going next Courtland 1743 01:29:37,100 --> 01:29:39,000 Sutton? I mean, this is the range where 1744 01:29:39,000 --> 01:29:41,100 we take geyser. Like, I don't know if this dude 1745 01:29:41,100 --> 01:29:43,400 can do it, but if you can, it's Be cool. 1746 01:29:43,800 --> 01:29:48,500 So although as you know that type I like him more Damon does 1747 01:29:48,500 --> 01:29:51,600 for whenever I'm in a draft and once like Bateman's gone, I'm 1748 01:29:51,608 --> 01:29:55,100 like, okay there's no water severs left, I'm taking some 1749 01:29:55,100 --> 01:29:57,900 running backs, like that is for me, he's that guy. 1750 01:29:57,900 --> 01:30:01,500 That's like the last of like the exciting wide receivers on my 1751 01:30:01,500 --> 01:30:04,000 board for for a while, for a while. 1752 01:30:04,400 --> 01:30:06,600 Yeah. So that's yeah. 1753 01:30:06,600 --> 01:30:07,800 I like them a lot. But yeah. 1754 01:30:07,800 --> 01:30:10,400 They injury risk. I think like we have to 1755 01:30:10,400 --> 01:30:13,000 acknowledge does exist to some extent, but I think He's but 1756 01:30:13,000 --> 01:30:15,500 it's nice because I we've talked a lot about guys who are going 1757 01:30:15,500 --> 01:30:19,100 to be screaming up boards. He's not gonna scream upwards, 1758 01:30:19,500 --> 01:30:23,300 you knows a flowers is going to cap his his potential price. 1759 01:30:23,300 --> 01:30:25,900 So I think we're going to get him in this range and maybe even 1760 01:30:25,900 --> 01:30:28,900 later you know maybe once normies come in and these wide 1761 01:30:28,900 --> 01:30:33,100 receivers fall a little bit, could be a 10th 11th guy maybe 1762 01:30:33,400 --> 01:30:37,100 if we're lucky. Yeah, other things I'll point 1763 01:30:37,100 --> 01:30:39,600 out here mix in, we've already sort of talked through him. 1764 01:30:39,600 --> 01:30:43,800 He's up big, you're no longer getting like Huge sort of 1765 01:30:43,800 --> 01:30:48,200 suspension risk discount on Mixon, he's up, 17 spots to 64. 1766 01:30:48,200 --> 01:30:51,600 Overall. I expect that to keep keep going 1767 01:30:51,600 --> 01:30:53,500 up until we get bad news for him. 1768 01:30:53,500 --> 01:30:56,600 I think people are sort of baking and Status Quo is he'll 1769 01:30:56,600 --> 01:30:59,300 he'll be back. So I'm good with them at that 1770 01:30:59,300 --> 01:31:04,400 price. A tear of the water severs at 1771 01:31:04,400 --> 01:31:08,100 the one to turn our all up, Amon-Ra Devante, Garrett Wilson. 1772 01:31:08,100 --> 01:31:12,600 I think that's simply a product of Jonathan Taylor falling. 1773 01:31:12,800 --> 01:31:15,000 In which we talked about. So those guys are all just sort 1774 01:31:15,000 --> 01:31:18,200 of taking a spot all up a little bit, I don't think any 1775 01:31:18,200 --> 01:31:22,500 necessarily storylines to cover their one of the guys want to 1776 01:31:22,500 --> 01:31:25,300 talk about Chris Godwin. I think like these these bucks 1777 01:31:25,300 --> 01:31:27,600 wide receivers. It's a little bit like Amari 1778 01:31:27,600 --> 01:31:30,600 Cooper last year. We're like you could listen 2:00 1779 01:31:31,400 --> 01:31:33,500 of fantasy football podcast. No one wanted to talk about, 1780 01:31:33,500 --> 01:31:36,100 Amari Cooper last year, just like slip through the cracks God 1781 01:31:36,100 --> 01:31:38,000 wouldn't Evans are getting a little bit of that treatment so 1782 01:31:38,000 --> 01:31:40,900 far this year, like, I think Godwin is going behind Smith and 1783 01:31:40,900 --> 01:31:42,600 jinpa. Yeah. 1784 01:31:42,800 --> 01:31:46,300 So on what did give the sort of Life Smith in Juba? 1785 01:31:46,500 --> 01:31:49,900 No duties, Kris gartland, I don't want anything to do with 1786 01:31:49,900 --> 01:31:52,400 the books offense. Man, it's to suffice exception. 1787 01:31:52,500 --> 01:31:55,300 I'm going in, I want to go on with Mike Evans, give me a guy 1788 01:31:55,300 --> 01:31:58,500 can do it in like two Targets. Leave this guy. 1789 01:31:58,500 --> 01:32:00,700 Oh, it's got a bar in it. I was going to put the Oklahoma 1790 01:32:00,700 --> 01:32:03,900 helmet on, and I was gonna do a whole bit as Baker Mayfield, but 1791 01:32:03,900 --> 01:32:06,800 now I can't because it's got its got like a strap on the inside 1792 01:32:06,800 --> 01:32:12,600 of it. I think so, I don't know, like, 1793 01:32:12,700 --> 01:32:16,200 Like, Ken Baker, be that bad with use. 1794 01:32:16,200 --> 01:32:20,000 When another friend is last year, settle down rain this 1795 01:32:20,100 --> 01:32:22,600 week. She was playing for the Carolina 1796 01:32:22,600 --> 01:32:25,800 Panthers. Terrible wasn't horrendous, Sam. 1797 01:32:25,800 --> 01:32:27,700 Donald Sam. Donald was totally fine. 1798 01:32:27,700 --> 01:32:29,400 That's why it's going to be some that the great Beast. 1799 01:32:29,900 --> 01:32:32,500 He's got the greatest army in the history of the 49ers 1800 01:32:32,500 --> 01:32:38,200 organization so kind of its Baker. 1801 01:32:38,200 --> 01:32:42,500 I'm gonna pull it up on the EPA. I mean he was he was fucking 1802 01:32:42,500 --> 01:32:45,300 her. Horrible last year they guy and 1803 01:32:45,300 --> 01:32:46,900 you go into this with you was horrible. 1804 01:32:47,500 --> 01:32:50,900 Yeah. And like I do not, who is even 1805 01:32:50,900 --> 01:32:53,300 their offensive coordinator because I did, they get rid of 1806 01:32:53,300 --> 01:32:55,900 life which is it still left, which I think it's still a 1807 01:32:55,900 --> 01:32:57,900 flitch. I'll check that left, which was 1808 01:32:57,900 --> 01:33:01,800 kind of he was he got exposed last year, they were doing 1809 01:33:01,800 --> 01:33:04,000 really bad stuff. Like they were running on a ton 1810 01:33:04,000 --> 01:33:06,000 of first downs. I had a horrendous Run game, 1811 01:33:06,400 --> 01:33:10,100 super low EPA per play. You know, white was not 1812 01:33:10,100 --> 01:33:12,600 effective as a rusher for net was not effective as a rusher. 1813 01:33:12,700 --> 01:33:16,900 Sure, but they kept doing it. The cat is that and then I, I 1814 01:33:16,900 --> 01:33:19,700 got interrupt you quickly. Offensive coordinator was Dave, 1815 01:33:19,700 --> 01:33:22,400 Canales, who just turned Geno Smith and a comeback player of 1816 01:33:22,400 --> 01:33:24,700 the year. So though they've hired. 1817 01:33:25,200 --> 01:33:27,100 Okay, so, that's how the Seahawks guy. 1818 01:33:27,500 --> 01:33:29,200 It's all left. Which so makes me feel that 1819 01:33:29,200 --> 01:33:31,200 makes me feel a little better and makes feel a little better. 1820 01:33:31,700 --> 01:33:33,200 Yeah. Because left, which was, I mean, 1821 01:33:33,400 --> 01:33:35,300 geez. Yeah. 1822 01:33:35,400 --> 01:33:36,400 All right. That makes me feel a little bit 1823 01:33:36,400 --> 01:33:40,000 better but I mean Baker was was really rough Baker and EPA per 1824 01:33:40,000 --> 01:33:44,400 play was the worst in the Tire leak worse than Davis Mills. 1825 01:33:44,400 --> 01:33:48,500 Joe Flacco Zach Wilson. I mean, he was, he was sterile, 1826 01:33:48,500 --> 01:33:50,500 and that includes is Ram snaps when she was a little bit 1827 01:33:50,500 --> 01:33:53,400 better, there's going to be a hilarious guy, starting 1828 01:33:53,400 --> 01:33:55,300 quarterback starting at quarterback for the bucks this 1829 01:33:55,300 --> 01:33:56,700 year. You're going to see Carson Wentz 1830 01:33:56,700 --> 01:34:02,800 in there, you're going to see like I don't know, CJ beathard. 1831 01:34:02,800 --> 01:34:05,000 There's I think they're going to be rotating through guys. 1832 01:34:05,000 --> 01:34:08,200 Very much like the Rams worth Anna last year. 1833 01:34:08,200 --> 01:34:11,400 Sort of like the Panthers were last year I think Baker's making 1834 01:34:11,400 --> 01:34:13,100 notes in my notebook, right? Right now. 1835 01:34:15,800 --> 01:34:19,000 Oh yeah, I don't know. And this is we gotta get like, 1836 01:34:19,000 --> 01:34:23,600 are, you know, once per episode. Let's get Hayden on to explain 1837 01:34:23,600 --> 01:34:27,300 how tradable Chris Godwin's contract is, because that's what 1838 01:34:27,300 --> 01:34:30,100 I wanted and like is their legitimate chance that Godwin or 1839 01:34:30,100 --> 01:34:34,700 Evans get moved at this point. Because I think if there's a 1840 01:34:34,700 --> 01:34:38,500 chance then that actually meaningfully like impacts how I 1841 01:34:38,500 --> 01:34:40,900 think about those guys. But I don't understand. 1842 01:34:40,900 --> 01:34:42,600 There's a chance that God when is true. 1843 01:34:42,800 --> 01:34:47,900 Then he's a pretty big value, but because I think, if you were 1844 01:34:47,900 --> 01:34:50,000 to get traded, given the contract. 1845 01:34:50,000 --> 01:34:53,400 Would have to probably be too like a contender. 1846 01:34:53,700 --> 01:34:56,800 I basically Imagining the chiefs of my head right now, that's why 1847 01:34:56,808 --> 01:34:58,300 I'm excited. That's what I'm thinking, like 1848 01:34:58,300 --> 01:35:01,000 the Chiefs and bills, it still feels like, you know, trade 1849 01:35:01,000 --> 01:35:04,700 deadline the Chiefs and bills like are trying to counter each 1850 01:35:04,700 --> 01:35:07,600 other. Gabe Davis goes down the bills. 1851 01:35:07,600 --> 01:35:09,400 Put all their chips in and drills are like, I don't know 1852 01:35:09,407 --> 01:35:11,200 why we draft the tight end to play slot receiver. 1853 01:35:11,200 --> 01:35:13,300 This is really fucking stupid. Stupid. 1854 01:35:13,300 --> 01:35:14,700 Why don't we trade for Chris Godwin? 1855 01:35:14,700 --> 01:35:17,100 Who is a slot receiver. That seems way smarter. 1856 01:35:17,800 --> 01:35:21,000 Yeah, I can see that. That's that's what I'm trying to 1857 01:35:21,000 --> 01:35:24,400 price in, but I don't know man. Like I gotta learn this lesson a 1858 01:35:24,407 --> 01:35:27,000 little bit last year with the Seahawks where I was convinced 1859 01:35:27,000 --> 01:35:28,900 Gino. Andrew awkward dog. 1860 01:35:28,900 --> 01:35:31,000 Shit. I didn't take much Metcalf and 1861 01:35:31,000 --> 01:35:34,500 lock it sometimes just like traffic and wide receivers when 1862 01:35:34,500 --> 01:35:38,000 they're this cheap and like worry about it later, sometimes 1863 01:35:38,000 --> 01:35:40,800 works. So I still like I still like 1864 01:35:40,800 --> 01:35:42,600 Godwin. Yeah it is. 1865 01:35:42,700 --> 01:35:47,200 Up with like at least met cap and obviously Gino is way better 1866 01:35:47,200 --> 01:35:49,600 than we could have. You know, predicted or did 1867 01:35:49,600 --> 01:35:52,700 predict last year. And so it didn't really matter 1868 01:35:52,700 --> 01:35:56,600 the archetype of the receivers but like, It does concern me 1869 01:35:56,600 --> 01:36:01,600 that God willing is going to get there primarily on volume and 1870 01:36:01,600 --> 01:36:04,600 when you got it a bad offense, it's like they don't convert 1871 01:36:04,600 --> 01:36:07,000 first Dent or don't convert third Downs in two first downs, 1872 01:36:07,000 --> 01:36:10,600 they don't sustained drives. Like, they're probably going to 1873 01:36:10,600 --> 01:36:12,300 be pretty conservative on offense. 1874 01:36:12,300 --> 01:36:15,000 And, I mean, they're still Todd Bowles team. 1875 01:36:15,000 --> 01:36:17,800 They're probably going to be pretty run-heavy, although, I 1876 01:36:17,800 --> 01:36:20,800 don't know who can run the ball with because White's, it's not 1877 01:36:20,800 --> 01:36:22,500 really an early down banger, but whatever. 1878 01:36:23,200 --> 01:36:26,300 There's I've just like, I'm going to see how his offense 1879 01:36:26,300 --> 01:36:30,200 like really put some points and if I'm going to take a buck, I 1880 01:36:30,200 --> 01:36:34,000 prefer Mike Evans because it's like He can still get open deep 1881 01:36:34,000 --> 01:36:38,000 and still huge and you know Baker will probably check it up 1882 01:36:38,000 --> 01:36:41,600 to him occasionally and maybe he catches some so but I don't 1883 01:36:41,600 --> 01:36:43,800 know, I guess I'm could be being too precise. 1884 01:36:43,800 --> 01:36:46,400 Like God. One is still really good. 1885 01:36:46,400 --> 01:36:53,500 So, Yeah, and he's cheap. Yep, that's fair. 1886 01:36:54,700 --> 01:36:57,600 It's certainly the Box. Certainly feel like what could? 1887 01:36:57,600 --> 01:37:00,700 What could prepossess people to make Allen Lazard, a Riser. 1888 01:37:00,700 --> 01:37:05,300 By the way, I think I'm somewhat, I think I may be a. 1889 01:37:05,308 --> 01:37:08,500 So I made the case for Allen Lazard on the show at pick 150. 1890 01:37:08,500 --> 01:37:10,300 Let's calm down. Don't don't blame me for this. 1891 01:37:10,500 --> 01:37:13,300 I made the case that literally like pick 150. 1892 01:37:13,600 --> 01:37:15,700 I liked it, then I don't like it. 1893 01:37:15,708 --> 01:37:17,600 Now, I want that. I want that on the record. 1894 01:37:17,600 --> 01:37:21,300 I liked it there. 150. There isn't a ton. 140 picks 1895 01:37:21,300 --> 01:37:25,600 what we but it's also like. Okay, so the Jets thing this is 1896 01:37:25,600 --> 01:37:28,900 actually kind of interesting. The Jets of like come out and 1897 01:37:28,900 --> 01:37:32,100 said they're not cutting Corey Davis, which like okay if you 1898 01:37:32,108 --> 01:37:34,500 have to come out and say that, like that that probably means 1899 01:37:34,500 --> 01:37:35,600 there's a chance. He's getting caught. 1900 01:37:35,600 --> 01:37:37,100 Like why are you being so defensive about it? 1901 01:37:37,100 --> 01:37:40,500 But like the fact they said that and there's a chance you still 1902 01:37:40,500 --> 01:37:44,000 on the team, like what what the hell is this wide receiver 1903 01:37:44,000 --> 01:37:46,200 rotation? Like I think Corey Davis is like 1904 01:37:46,200 --> 01:37:49,500 a better outside receiver then Lazard. 1905 01:37:49,700 --> 01:37:52,400 So if he's on the team, isn't it? 1906 01:37:52,500 --> 01:37:56,500 Corey Davis and Garrett Wilson on the outside Lazard playing in 1907 01:37:56,500 --> 01:37:58,400 the slot. Like, I don't know this. 1908 01:37:58,400 --> 01:38:00,500 This wide receiver room. Like, I don't know how to 1909 01:38:00,500 --> 01:38:03,200 project it anymore. Randall, Cobb is gonna probably 1910 01:38:03,200 --> 01:38:06,100 play some amount me Cole, Harmon in there for, Gadget stuff like 1911 01:38:06,200 --> 01:38:10,000 this, could be a messy rotation. So, with all these moves, I've 1912 01:38:10,000 --> 01:38:13,400 been like, less in all Mozart, because my thesis was like, 1913 01:38:13,600 --> 01:38:16,500 Davis is caught, I didn't know called was going to be there. 1914 01:38:16,500 --> 01:38:19,400 He's going to be like 100% Rao treat guy now. 1915 01:38:19,600 --> 01:38:22,300 I'm like, man, I don't know. This could get messy quick. 1916 01:38:23,400 --> 01:38:25,800 I don't know if I really if it's worth it, this point. 1917 01:38:25,800 --> 01:38:27,800 So curious, if you guys have any thoughts on, like, how does this 1918 01:38:27,800 --> 01:38:29,200 Jets wide receiver rotation play out? 1919 01:38:29,200 --> 01:38:31,200 It seems Seems really messy right now. 1920 01:38:32,100 --> 01:38:35,200 I mean, whoever brought the best donuts and that week to the 1921 01:38:35,200 --> 01:38:37,200 meeting. I think it's probably going to 1922 01:38:37,200 --> 01:38:39,600 play. I think Garrett Wilson is sort 1923 01:38:39,600 --> 01:38:43,800 of immune, they think Darren Wilson will just end up being 1924 01:38:43,800 --> 01:38:45,400 fine. But yeah, I think playing time 1925 01:38:45,400 --> 01:38:48,800 is basically doled out by like whoever Aaron Rodgers, is least 1926 01:38:48,800 --> 01:38:50,800 pissed off about. At any given time? 1927 01:38:51,800 --> 01:38:54,400 Yeah. Matt's not even not, even really 1928 01:38:54,400 --> 01:38:56,500 being silly. Honestly, I do actually think 1929 01:38:56,500 --> 01:38:59,100 that is what dictates it whoever's like willing to listen 1930 01:38:59,100 --> 01:39:01,500 to Joe Rogan with their inaudible. 1931 01:39:01,500 --> 01:39:04,300 Yeah room whoever was everybody's moon landing, 1932 01:39:06,200 --> 01:39:12,700 whoever said he was Packers backup quarterback. 1933 01:39:12,700 --> 01:39:16,200 He said the first time he met Aaron Rodgers, he was like 1934 01:39:16,500 --> 01:39:19,100 there's some 911 stuff. You should really look into that 1935 01:39:19,100 --> 01:39:20,300 was there. Meeting that was their 1936 01:39:20,300 --> 01:39:23,300 conversation. That was how he met his back up. 1937 01:39:23,800 --> 01:39:25,200 Yeah. How else you guys? 1938 01:39:25,200 --> 01:39:28,300 So we're so weird now of his family talks though, I did 1939 01:39:30,500 --> 01:39:35,200 mention that Madison Park Hill had a good article on tight ends 1940 01:39:35,200 --> 01:39:38,900 and he mentioned how the Conklin in that article and I was kind 1941 01:39:38,900 --> 01:39:40,900 of like, I like Conklin. Yeah. 1942 01:39:40,900 --> 01:39:43,600 Why am I not drafting conquer Conklin's. 1943 01:39:44,300 --> 01:39:47,500 He's starting their right and Rogers tends to throw his tight 1944 01:39:47,500 --> 01:39:49,100 end and so maybe that's the answer. 1945 01:39:49,100 --> 01:39:50,700 Maybe we get. Get Conklin in the in the 1946 01:39:50,700 --> 01:39:54,000 eighteenth round and we get Garrett Wilson in the second 1947 01:39:54,000 --> 01:39:55,600 round and that's our Rogers deck. 1948 01:39:56,500 --> 01:39:59,600 I like I've been taking a lot of a lot of complan 18th round. 1949 01:39:59,600 --> 01:40:03,400 Even without Rogers honestly just like a guy with two to 1950 01:40:03,400 --> 01:40:07,200 touch down upside and 18th. Round seems Seems like a pretty 1951 01:40:07,200 --> 01:40:11,200 good bet. Van Jefferson is up. 1952 01:40:11,200 --> 01:40:12,500 That's Alaska. All throughout here. 1953 01:40:13,400 --> 01:40:16,100 I think you should be up, man. It makes sense gonna play a lot. 1954 01:40:16,300 --> 01:40:19,800 Yeah, it's a John uses a jumps. This year's a Joan. 1955 01:40:19,800 --> 01:40:23,200 Right? I that's what I think. 1956 01:40:23,200 --> 01:40:27,500 Honestly, I think that's that's the bet I think he's does have 1957 01:40:27,500 --> 01:40:31,900 to dodge like some guys there to do koukin akua. 1958 01:40:31,900 --> 01:40:34,400 But like people are hyping, those guys up a little too much 1959 01:40:34,400 --> 01:40:36,600 in my opinion. Like I think it's going to be 1960 01:40:36,600 --> 01:40:40,400 van and in the scenario I don't I don't hate you like some stew. 1961 01:40:40,800 --> 01:40:42,500 Yeah. I like to to but tutus not, I 1962 01:40:42,500 --> 01:40:45,500 mean he's a tiny man, he's a rotational player, like he's not 1963 01:40:45,500 --> 01:40:49,800 gonna make, there's there's open routes they're like they got rid 1964 01:40:49,800 --> 01:40:52,000 of Robinson's. So they have Have to have like 1965 01:40:52,000 --> 01:40:54,900 22 can play. He can be there, full time, slot 1966 01:40:54,900 --> 01:40:58,100 receiver, you know, of Cups, you know, kicking to the outside or 1967 01:40:58,100 --> 01:41:00,400 whatever, which it is. This makes tutus life tough 1968 01:41:00,400 --> 01:41:03,300 because because, you know, the cups of good in the slot. 1969 01:41:03,300 --> 01:41:07,600 So yeah, it's like he's not there, they're starting outside 1970 01:41:07,600 --> 01:41:11,000 wide receiver into wide. Receiver sets been Jefferson is 1971 01:41:11,000 --> 01:41:13,500 and you know three wide receiver sets of in Jefferson's gonna be 1972 01:41:13,500 --> 01:41:15,900 one of those guys. Like almost certainly he would 1973 01:41:15,900 --> 01:41:18,900 really have to fall on his face but he was he was a second-round 1974 01:41:18,900 --> 01:41:23,100 pick and he's been like Not good at any point but like not 1975 01:41:23,100 --> 01:41:25,200 horrendous. So I think he's I think he's out 1976 01:41:25,200 --> 01:41:26,300 there. Yeah. 1977 01:41:26,300 --> 01:41:31,200 That just person in 2021 year the Rams won the Super Bowl 800 1978 01:41:31,200 --> 01:41:34,400 yards, six touchdowns mean that's that's a smash of a 1979 01:41:34,400 --> 01:41:39,300 ticket yet 180 and I think that was with him being a clear wide 1980 01:41:39,300 --> 01:41:43,400 receiver three, they had Robert Woods there so there's even 1981 01:41:43,400 --> 01:41:47,800 upside for a bigger role than back then, so I like the pic 1982 01:41:47,800 --> 01:41:50,300 quite a bit. It's certainly not sexy, but I 1983 01:41:50,308 --> 01:41:53,700 do think The Rams are one of these offenses. 1984 01:41:53,700 --> 01:41:57,300 I think I forgot to coined this term but like Carnival offense a 1985 01:41:57,308 --> 01:42:00,100 team that's not that good of an offense but as just a dog shit 1986 01:42:00,100 --> 01:42:04,800 defense and has to throw a ton I think McVeigh could just like if 1987 01:42:04,800 --> 01:42:07,800 a soup this is a big. If like if Stafford's health is 1988 01:42:07,800 --> 01:42:11,100 okay I think like you could see the Rams like lead the league in 1989 01:42:11,100 --> 01:42:13,100 pass attempts. All up Brady last year on the 1990 01:42:13,100 --> 01:42:16,800 box like not be that efficient but just passed a shit ton. 1991 01:42:17,100 --> 01:42:19,200 Some of these tertiary guys are going to have some value. 1992 01:42:19,200 --> 01:42:23,800 So I kind of like these like Gross Rams, Stacks late. 1993 01:42:24,800 --> 01:42:28,400 It's right in article that I'm that I just got out this morning 1994 01:42:28,400 --> 01:42:30,200 was supposed to be an article about Stafford. 1995 01:42:30,200 --> 01:42:33,900 That's how I that's how I started down the rabbit hole and 1996 01:42:33,900 --> 01:42:36,400 kind of one eye. And I'm going to end up kind of 1997 01:42:37,200 --> 01:42:40,500 writing the articles that led me to the tight end article 1998 01:42:40,500 --> 01:42:43,400 eventually. But yeah it started as like I'm 1999 01:42:43,400 --> 01:42:47,300 stacking backdoor stacking with Matthew Stafford, a lot and he 2000 01:42:47,300 --> 01:42:49,800 does strike me as the type of bet in those late rounds. 2001 01:42:49,800 --> 01:42:53,800 That makes sense because like, You can take him as your second 2002 01:42:53,800 --> 01:42:57,200 quarterback and be done, which is, I think what you want to do 2003 01:42:57,200 --> 01:43:01,700 generally in the late round, if you're going to be diving into 2004 01:43:01,700 --> 01:43:04,600 the late rounds of quarterback, like you want a guy who actually 2005 01:43:04,600 --> 01:43:07,700 can start all year for you, and give you a little bit of upside 2006 01:43:07,700 --> 01:43:11,000 as a pocket passer. You know, that he generates a 2007 01:43:11,000 --> 01:43:14,600 well time Spike week, like Stafford, just like really 2008 01:43:14,600 --> 01:43:18,300 shouldn't be there. I kind of love getting him in 2009 01:43:18,300 --> 01:43:20,700 the 14th. Like, and then, and then it's 2010 01:43:20,700 --> 01:43:23,600 beautiful because you can get, And 22 and hickey. 2011 01:43:24,200 --> 01:43:26,900 They all go behind him so you can backdoor, stack it so 2012 01:43:26,900 --> 01:43:30,000 easily. Yeah, I love them all in. 2013 01:43:30,000 --> 01:43:33,100 On that on that ramp stack, I honestly should be doing it more 2014 01:43:33,500 --> 01:43:36,500 man. Like the ramp, I don't know, 2015 01:43:36,508 --> 01:43:38,800 this is a stupid point, but the Rams won the Super Bowl two 2016 01:43:38,800 --> 01:43:41,700 years ago Stafford through for nearly 5,000 yards and 14 2017 01:43:41,700 --> 01:43:43,400 touchdowns. Like sometimes, it's as simple 2018 01:43:43,400 --> 01:43:47,100 as that you showed us that ceiling two years ago again, 2019 01:43:47,100 --> 01:43:48,900 obviously in my projecting do that this year. 2020 01:43:49,300 --> 01:43:51,300 No. Like I get why it's cheaper but 2021 01:43:51,400 --> 01:43:52,600 it's gone. Too far. 2022 01:43:52,600 --> 01:43:54,600 I think well. So like the late-round 2023 01:43:54,600 --> 01:43:57,600 quarterback strategy which you know this is best ball so we're 2024 01:43:57,600 --> 01:44:03,000 not we're not doing that anyway. But also you know the emergence 2025 01:44:03,000 --> 01:44:06,100 of this like Hyper Elite tier of quarterbacks is kind of shaken 2026 01:44:06,100 --> 01:44:08,800 up, the quarterback field. But you know, a lot of the 2027 01:44:09,400 --> 01:44:11,500 reason that the late Ron quarterback strategy was 2028 01:44:11,500 --> 01:44:14,000 working. So well, in previous years is 2029 01:44:14,000 --> 01:44:18,300 that we can't predict passing efficiency. 2030 01:44:19,200 --> 01:44:21,300 That's like what JJ is a Creations talked about, you 2031 01:44:21,308 --> 01:44:23,900 know, it's like if you're betting on like if you're taking 2032 01:44:23,900 --> 01:44:27,100 the pocket passer, who just is coming off a really efficient 2033 01:44:27,100 --> 01:44:31,500 passing season and letting the pocket passer who had a down 2034 01:44:31,500 --> 01:44:34,900 season Fall that traditionally is not like been a great way to 2035 01:44:34,900 --> 01:44:36,600 go. And I think like with a guy like 2036 01:44:36,600 --> 01:44:39,800 to, you know, he's got that he's got the weapons like I'm kind of 2037 01:44:39,800 --> 01:44:44,700 in on that but like, I mean, Davis, I don't wanna upset you 2038 01:44:44,700 --> 01:44:46,000 here. But like would you be shocked if 2039 01:44:46,000 --> 01:44:48,100 Stafford threw for more yards and deck press guy? 2040 01:44:51,300 --> 01:44:55,400 I would be a little surprised because the weapons are the 2041 01:44:55,400 --> 01:44:59,000 cupboard is fairly bare, maybe just for a cookout. 2042 01:45:01,000 --> 01:45:04,000 Yeah. I mean he does so now Mike 2043 01:45:04,000 --> 01:45:06,400 McCarthy running 30 times a game too. 2044 01:45:06,400 --> 01:45:09,000 So yeah, I know. I mean, it could happen. 2045 01:45:09,000 --> 01:45:11,800 It's possible, it's unlikely, but I'm kind of with you pal. 2046 01:45:11,800 --> 01:45:16,400 Like, it's not create again, Stafford, two years ago. 2047 01:45:16,400 --> 01:45:18,700 We were drafting them. What in the 90s last year? 2048 01:45:19,500 --> 01:45:22,400 I don't know if his ceiling is being like a to a type, just an 2049 01:45:22,400 --> 01:45:25,000 elite pocket pass. Yeah, you're right, right. 2050 01:45:25,000 --> 01:45:28,400 You're getting an eighth round, ninth round value in the 13th 2051 01:45:28,400 --> 01:45:34,200 14th round, which is 0. a pretty big win, especially because The 2052 01:45:34,200 --> 01:45:36,900 way I like to build a staffers at, he's my second quarterback 2053 01:45:36,900 --> 01:45:41,100 and I'm done like I, you know, I can not always do this. 2054 01:45:41,100 --> 01:45:43,300 Like, maybe I would tack on another guy or add. 2055 01:45:43,300 --> 01:45:46,200 Stafford is a third but that's part of the appeal for me is 2056 01:45:46,200 --> 01:45:50,400 that I feel like I can build with him almost like last year, 2057 01:45:50,600 --> 01:45:52,100 right? You might have taken Stafford in 2058 01:45:52,100 --> 01:45:54,200 the eighth or ninth. I mean, stat, that's the funny 2059 01:45:54,200 --> 01:45:55,800 thing right. Stafford wasn't really going 2060 01:45:55,800 --> 01:45:58,200 that far behind back. That's one of the reasons I 2061 01:45:58,200 --> 01:45:59,900 mentioned it because it's like really like last year we 2062 01:45:59,900 --> 01:46:01,500 wouldn't have thought that was crazy at all. 2063 01:46:02,200 --> 01:46:05,200 And, you know, now it seems This impossibility because Stafford 2064 01:46:05,200 --> 01:46:08,900 Had a Bad season. But if you last year were to 2065 01:46:08,900 --> 01:46:13,100 take like Stafford in the ninth and you know, Aaron Rodgers in 2066 01:46:13,108 --> 01:46:15,800 the tenth or whatever. Maybe eighth ninth depending I 2067 01:46:15,800 --> 01:46:19,700 think that might have actually been more like the ATP but you 2068 01:46:19,700 --> 01:46:23,500 would have been very comfortable stopping it to and now you know 2069 01:46:23,500 --> 01:46:26,500 you can basically do it the same but just a few rounds later. 2070 01:46:26,500 --> 01:46:33,200 So yeah, makes sense. Yeah, time to get kretsch to 2071 01:46:33,200 --> 01:46:34,500 tout van Jefferson. Yeah. 2072 01:46:34,500 --> 01:46:36,100 The talking for 20 minutes on Van. 2073 01:46:36,100 --> 01:46:39,300 Jefferson was very intentional with Gretsch out tonight. 2074 01:46:39,300 --> 01:46:45,100 This is only way would be able to do this, but let's move on to 2075 01:46:45,200 --> 01:46:48,800 the fallers. Hear some obvious ones that I 2076 01:46:48,800 --> 01:46:49,800 don't. Think need to talk through, 2077 01:46:49,800 --> 01:46:54,200 because they're just frankly, so obvious Ken, Walker falling. 2078 01:46:54,800 --> 01:46:58,700 Tyler our Jailer Falling Again, Jameson Williams Falling Again, 2079 01:46:58,700 --> 01:47:01,200 joshjpalmer Falling. Again, Dawson Ox falling. 2080 01:47:01,200 --> 01:47:05,500 Again, it's really sort of obvious to me why all these guys 2081 01:47:05,500 --> 01:47:07,800 are falling. They all sort of had guys, 2082 01:47:08,300 --> 01:47:12,700 drafted ahead of them that are pushing them down, besides, 2083 01:47:12,700 --> 01:47:14,500 besides Taylor, but we've already talked through that. 2084 01:47:14,800 --> 01:47:18,300 I think the one I do want to talk about is Montgomery. 2085 01:47:19,400 --> 01:47:23,100 We talked about Gibbs. I do think that like Detroit is 2086 01:47:23,100 --> 01:47:26,500 just in a position. They did this last year where so 2087 01:47:26,500 --> 01:47:29,300 many of the points on this offense are going to funnel to 2088 01:47:29,300 --> 01:47:31,900 the running backs, both through the passing game, you know, 2089 01:47:31,900 --> 01:47:36,400 rushing at the goal line. Where do we think Davis 2090 01:47:36,400 --> 01:47:40,300 Montgomery, ultimately Falls? And are you interested in if 2091 01:47:40,300 --> 01:47:43,200 like, say Falls like pick 100, is more sort of like a 0, RB 2092 01:47:43,200 --> 01:47:44,700 Target. Like are you interested just 2093 01:47:44,700 --> 01:47:47,100 because the upside of that offense you know you got the 2094 01:47:47,300 --> 01:47:50,000 contingent belly teachers becomes he becomes like a 2095 01:47:50,008 --> 01:47:52,400 handcuff guy with a little bit of Standalone value. 2096 01:47:52,400 --> 01:47:57,200 They're like yeah I become interested there what at this 2097 01:47:57,200 --> 01:48:00,800 price, not so much. I am starting to get interested 2098 01:48:00,800 --> 01:48:03,900 in Kenny Walker though. Now at 46 running back. 2099 01:48:04,000 --> 01:48:06,200 Teen, that feels the palatable to me. 2100 01:48:08,300 --> 01:48:11,600 Yeah, I've started. I've taken him once he fell all 2101 01:48:11,600 --> 01:48:15,100 the way into the fifth and that's kind of what what I think 2102 01:48:15,100 --> 01:48:16,800 he is now. I think he's more like a fifth 2103 01:48:16,800 --> 01:48:19,700 round value like but in early but in early fifth round value 2104 01:48:20,100 --> 01:48:25,700 and so yeah if he's like at the 45 turn I feel pretty confident 2105 01:48:25,700 --> 01:48:29,400 taking him. Yeah he definitely profile like 2106 01:48:29,400 --> 01:48:32,500 at that point you just need a couple big spike weeks really 2107 01:48:32,500 --> 01:48:36,200 for him to pay off and that's exactly profiles as like bad 2108 01:48:36,200 --> 01:48:38,000 success rate but huge break away. 2109 01:48:38,100 --> 01:48:42,600 Are so yeah, I think he's I think is fall. 2110 01:48:42,600 --> 01:48:44,300 Should stop soon. We'll see. 2111 01:48:45,000 --> 01:48:47,000 He might, I thought I was definitely under wait on him, 2112 01:48:47,000 --> 01:48:51,000 but his fall has been a lot more rapid than I expected. 2113 01:48:51,000 --> 01:48:56,100 So we'll see where that ends up any other followers here. 2114 01:48:56,500 --> 01:48:58,700 I honestly think this is in the most exciting to talk to because 2115 01:48:58,700 --> 01:49:01,200 it's so obvious. But anyone want to talk through 2116 01:49:01,200 --> 01:49:05,600 any of these players I mean, they're just all sort of 2117 01:49:05,600 --> 01:49:08,800 reactions. A Leisure obvious Palmer, 2118 01:49:08,800 --> 01:49:11,200 obvious gained a lot. Like, it's just exactly what 2119 01:49:11,200 --> 01:49:13,500 you'd expect. Yeah, I'm taking out your at 2120 01:49:13,500 --> 01:49:15,900 this point though. I think he's a handcuff. 2121 01:49:15,900 --> 01:49:18,900 He's a clear handcuffed and you know they're going to run enough 2122 01:49:18,900 --> 01:49:21,300 to where he'll actually get a little bit of run. 2123 01:49:21,600 --> 01:49:25,700 You know, it's not a great like he's probably Gus Edwards from 2124 01:49:25,700 --> 01:49:28,900 two years ago. Like it's not, you know, a great 2125 01:49:29,000 --> 01:49:32,200 pick at that level but I've mixed him in into rooms where 2126 01:49:32,208 --> 01:49:35,600 I'm like, I think you'll I think, you'll like score 2127 01:49:35,600 --> 01:49:38,000 touchdown in the first three weeks. 2128 01:49:38,100 --> 01:49:40,600 You know, something. Get me, get me a little 2129 01:49:40,600 --> 01:49:42,700 production out. Me long, and you have contingent 2130 01:49:42,700 --> 01:49:45,300 value. So, maybe I just like my former 2131 01:49:45,300 --> 01:49:47,900 line backers too much, but I'm starting to make some in now 2132 01:49:47,900 --> 01:49:51,500 that he's down the 150s. This is a deep cut, but because 2133 01:49:51,500 --> 01:49:53,600 I've been doing some of these 20 rounds stuff like I've 2134 01:49:53,600 --> 01:49:57,100 Cordarrelle Patterson staring at me in the 20th round on PR sites 2135 01:49:57,800 --> 01:50:01,600 like because it lasts he's got cap casualty and go somewhere 2136 01:50:01,600 --> 01:50:03,800 where he just gets ya sick design. 2137 01:50:04,000 --> 01:50:06,200 Is upside. That's kind of what I like. 2138 01:50:06,200 --> 01:50:08,600 Could you do like a McKinnon type B? 2139 01:50:08,600 --> 01:50:10,700 Roll. I got he's like a Ian McKinnon 2140 01:50:10,700 --> 01:50:12,800 isn't completely Fair. He's actually kind of more of a 2141 01:50:13,200 --> 01:50:16,000 pure rusher than McKinnon but I don't know man. 2142 01:50:16,000 --> 01:50:18,200 I just feels like he has outs. It also is like Atlantis. 2143 01:50:18,200 --> 01:50:22,500 Pass-catching core is like name Atlanta's water Seaver, three. 2144 01:50:23,300 --> 01:50:26,700 You can't like could Patterson gets slot, snaps in that 2145 01:50:26,700 --> 01:50:29,000 offense, I don't know. Like I've been thinking about 2146 01:50:29,000 --> 01:50:31,300 him is like an 18th round pick just because like I think he's 2147 01:50:31,300 --> 01:50:34,900 still good at football and like, Can you use some spikes? 2148 01:50:34,900 --> 01:50:37,700 But maybe that's overthinking it with us 32 years old. 2149 01:50:37,700 --> 01:50:42,200 So that's obviously a huge issue, but he is an amazing kick 2150 01:50:42,200 --> 01:50:44,700 returner and so that could save him. 2151 01:50:45,700 --> 01:50:49,400 You know, if he's on the one, it's probably reason that they 2152 01:50:49,400 --> 01:50:54,100 would keep him, he only cost like five mil five and a half 2153 01:50:54,100 --> 01:50:55,400 mil. Yeah. 2154 01:50:55,600 --> 01:50:59,100 So it might, they might keep him just for the fact, he's such a 2155 01:50:59,100 --> 01:51:02,800 good kick returner Which means it would be active on game day 2156 01:51:02,800 --> 01:51:06,100 though. That's something an active game 2157 01:51:06,100 --> 01:51:08,100 day. Like, has contingent value as a 2158 01:51:08,108 --> 01:51:12,800 running back, plus could either slot wide receiver, I don't 2159 01:51:12,800 --> 01:51:16,900 know. I've been 20, this is like no 2160 01:51:16,900 --> 01:51:18,900 one cares about talking about Cordarrelle Patterson right now, 2161 01:51:18,900 --> 01:51:21,900 but I think 20th round he's like, somewhat interesting. 2162 01:51:22,400 --> 01:51:24,500 I really pity as those 28 rounders. 2163 01:51:24,500 --> 01:51:26,200 You can get them in there. Yeah. 2164 01:51:26,200 --> 01:51:29,200 After I take my third kicker, I'll take Cordarrelle Patterson 2165 01:51:29,600 --> 01:51:32,500 answer together. Here's the kicker Indy. 2166 01:51:33,400 --> 01:51:35,100 Surrender. Yeah. 2167 01:51:35,900 --> 01:51:38,000 Okay let's let's move on. I do want to talk through some 2168 01:51:38,000 --> 01:51:43,200 of these other things quickly. The team stack stuff that I 2169 01:51:43,208 --> 01:51:45,100 think is more interesting is actually. 2170 01:51:45,100 --> 01:51:48,500 So this is the double stack, I'll skip past this but I do 2171 01:51:48,500 --> 01:51:52,400 want to talk about like the mega stack stuff where we've talked 2172 01:51:52,400 --> 01:51:56,200 about this all offseason the bills and the Chiefs when you 2173 01:51:56,200 --> 01:52:00,300 look at it from Team level ATP so this is average of the top 2174 01:52:00,300 --> 01:52:04,900 five guys on a team by ATP. The Chiefs and the bills stand 2175 01:52:04,900 --> 01:52:09,000 out as discounts relative to how like we know Mahomes and Josh 2176 01:52:09,000 --> 01:52:12,600 Allen their locks for top Three top for quarterback play in the 2177 01:52:12,600 --> 01:52:15,500 NFL like if they're healthy like pretty much lock them in. 2178 01:52:16,900 --> 01:52:19,900 But the teams are still pretty cheap like they're cheaper than 2179 01:52:19,900 --> 01:52:22,900 the Lions, the Vikings, the Jags. 2180 01:52:23,900 --> 01:52:26,700 And I think part of me like that, that feels wrong and 2181 01:52:26,700 --> 01:52:30,400 that's why you see the rise of guys like Sky, you know, Kincaid 2182 01:52:30,400 --> 01:52:33,300 at cetera. So I'm like, I don't know. 2183 01:52:33,600 --> 01:52:36,600 Again, I think I'm kind of like beating a dead horse with this 2184 01:52:36,600 --> 01:52:39,300 point a little bit, but like I just this kind of breaks my 2185 01:52:39,300 --> 01:52:42,000 brain a little bit. We're like, we don't want her to 2186 01:52:42,000 --> 01:52:43,500 go. Yeah. 2187 01:52:44,500 --> 01:52:45,700 But they got to go somewhere, right? 2188 01:52:46,500 --> 01:52:50,100 I'll tell you. One thing is I think both Bills 2189 01:52:50,100 --> 01:52:52,000 running backs are really interesting. 2190 01:52:52,300 --> 01:52:53,800 Yeah. You know I think the take him 2191 01:52:53,800 --> 01:52:58,100 together to you probably can but but it strikes me like you know, 2192 01:52:58,100 --> 01:53:02,600 and it's funny because one of the situations that has turned 2193 01:53:02,600 --> 01:53:06,700 out to be like a real Zero running back win has been the 2194 01:53:06,700 --> 01:53:10,400 bills backfield in the past and now we have like you know the 2195 01:53:10,400 --> 01:53:13,900 exact Moss them and Singletary Year from like two years ago 2196 01:53:13,900 --> 01:53:16,300 where they We're going like, basically both right here. 2197 01:53:17,400 --> 01:53:20,300 And I think you want to be overweight. 2198 01:53:20,300 --> 01:53:22,700 Both these guys with the understanding that one of them 2199 01:53:22,700 --> 01:53:25,100 is probably going to bust, but that's all right, you know? 2200 01:53:25,100 --> 01:53:27,600 Because I think one of them could be a total smash. 2201 01:53:27,700 --> 01:53:31,300 I like cook a little bit better. So, does the market Damien, 2202 01:53:31,300 --> 01:53:35,800 Harris has moved up enough to where I don't like love taking. 2203 01:53:35,800 --> 01:53:38,600 I think I took a man attempted a, I don't love that. 2204 01:53:38,600 --> 01:53:42,500 I wish she was more like a 11th or 12th but, you know, I'm still 2205 01:53:42,500 --> 01:53:47,000 taking him so, That's one way to get more exposure to this 2206 01:53:47,000 --> 01:53:49,100 offense. Where, yeah, there's uncertainty 2207 01:53:49,100 --> 01:53:51,600 but the uncertainty could like really break in your favor. 2208 01:53:51,600 --> 01:53:54,800 We're like, I don't know. Cleo secures things are going to 2209 01:53:54,808 --> 01:53:57,600 Rick really break in his favor, or is he going to be kind of a 2210 01:53:57,600 --> 01:54:02,700 rotational player? Well that definitely that helps 2211 01:54:02,700 --> 01:54:05,800 answer the Dalton Kincaid question. 2212 01:54:07,500 --> 01:54:11,300 Yeah, and I think my favorite, you know, my favorite bill, but 2213 01:54:11,300 --> 01:54:15,500 I bill, whose value, I like, like Hardy was signed to decent 2214 01:54:15,500 --> 01:54:19,000 money and I think like has a decent chance of being their 2215 01:54:19,000 --> 01:54:21,700 water Seaver, three and he's completely free now. 2216 01:54:21,700 --> 01:54:24,400 I like you shut up a little after they sign them but people 2217 01:54:24,400 --> 01:54:27,200 I think are just got got bored of that idea. 2218 01:54:28,500 --> 01:54:31,000 He was an exciting deep threat for the Saints a couple years 2219 01:54:31,000 --> 01:54:34,200 ago. I kind of like I like that 18th 2220 01:54:34,200 --> 01:54:37,900 round pick in Bill Stacks just Completely for free, you might 2221 01:54:37,900 --> 01:54:40,000 be in their number three, wide receiver, who knows? 2222 01:54:41,200 --> 01:54:44,200 It is a little tough because we don't know if he's even going to 2223 01:54:44,200 --> 01:54:48,000 like play. But I, I took them today, I 2224 01:54:48,000 --> 01:54:50,300 think it was today. I took him recently, I was 2225 01:54:50,300 --> 01:54:53,300 because I was taking them a lot before and then I think the 2226 01:54:53,300 --> 01:54:56,100 markets cooled because of the Kincaid pick a little bit. 2227 01:54:56,100 --> 01:54:56,800 Maybe? Yeah. 2228 01:54:57,000 --> 01:55:02,500 Yeah, but he's a, I believe. He's another returner. 2229 01:55:04,800 --> 01:55:09,300 Yeah, he's averaged 25. Point four yards per kick return 2230 01:55:09,400 --> 01:55:13,400 over his career which is really good 75 kick returns. 2231 01:55:13,600 --> 01:55:14,000 No. Sorry. 2232 01:55:14,000 --> 01:55:15,400 That's his longest. What does he? 2233 01:55:16,400 --> 01:55:20,000 Yeah, so no 75 kick returns, never scored. 2234 01:55:20,000 --> 01:55:23,200 A touchdown for summary upon return as well as he's. 2235 01:55:23,200 --> 01:55:27,700 Okay. So that again, like we're 2236 01:55:27,700 --> 01:55:30,300 looking for guys who are going to be active on game day, we're 2237 01:55:30,300 --> 01:55:36,200 down this late and I think he probably will be Yeah, that 2238 01:55:36,300 --> 01:55:42,100 that's fair since all these things, we've said before, San 2239 01:55:42,100 --> 01:55:46,500 Francisco, too low. So I kind of get that in some 2240 01:55:46,500 --> 01:55:48,800 ways. Josh says it's inverse is just 2241 01:55:48,800 --> 01:55:53,200 too low, but man like the quarterback uncertainty is the 2242 01:55:53,200 --> 01:55:56,600 reason that's so low. I think frankly, Lance is like 2243 01:55:56,600 --> 01:55:58,600 falling Purdy's. Not that expensive. 2244 01:55:59,100 --> 01:56:02,900 And to me you made this point Pat like guessing at 2245 01:56:02,900 --> 01:56:05,200 quarterback. And being wrong. 2246 01:56:05,200 --> 01:56:06,600 Hurts. You a ton, what? 2247 01:56:06,600 --> 01:56:08,700 Whereas, I'm not. So sure that it helps you at on 2248 01:56:08,700 --> 01:56:13,500 if you get that one, right? So unless search freelance and 2249 01:56:13,500 --> 01:56:18,200 he finishes quarterback 5, that would help help. 2250 01:56:19,000 --> 01:56:19,700 You know. It's funny though. 2251 01:56:20,200 --> 01:56:25,000 He probably doesn't help at all. Yeah, yeah, probably. 2252 01:56:26,200 --> 01:56:28,500 Well, if you start, I think one of the things that was 2253 01:56:28,500 --> 01:56:31,500 interesting to me, I was looking at the, I dug into this last 2254 01:56:31,500 --> 01:56:33,200 year with the rookie class being so. 2255 01:56:33,200 --> 01:56:36,600 So Ich and was like, I kind of was like, trying to talk myself 2256 01:56:36,600 --> 01:56:39,600 into Malik Willis and I couldn't do it because I was like, even 2257 01:56:39,600 --> 01:56:42,800 like Josh Allen had kind of whatever win rates in his rookie 2258 01:56:42,800 --> 01:56:48,200 season. So it's like about and Allen 2259 01:56:48,200 --> 01:56:49,800 started. Like who is it? 2260 01:56:50,400 --> 01:56:53,400 Basically any of these guys weren't starting are costing you 2261 01:56:53,400 --> 01:56:59,000 a lot because You really. I mean you definitely don't want 2262 01:56:59,000 --> 01:57:01,300 to did roster spot when you're entering the playoffs, but if 2263 01:57:01,300 --> 01:57:03,200 you're burning that roster spot on a quarterback which doesn't 2264 01:57:03,200 --> 01:57:05,000 give your team a ton of upside and then they're not even on the 2265 01:57:05,008 --> 01:57:08,500 field just really hurts you. So I think even if Lance like 2266 01:57:09,200 --> 01:57:12,300 did emerge wouldn't it be down the stretch? 2267 01:57:12,300 --> 01:57:14,400 Or is you think he would have to take the job for the whole 2268 01:57:14,400 --> 01:57:15,900 season? Any of these guys probably take 2269 01:57:15,900 --> 01:57:18,900 the job for pretty much all season to really pay off is my 2270 01:57:18,900 --> 01:57:22,100 think if you're going to do the Lansing, you do like a weird 2271 01:57:22,100 --> 01:57:24,400 kind of three quarterback Bill, where you completely upon 2272 01:57:24,400 --> 01:57:26,500 quarterback and the. You take like staff Alfred, 2273 01:57:26,500 --> 01:57:31,000 Lance and howl or insert late quarterback that you like there, 2274 01:57:31,300 --> 01:57:34,900 something like that combo. So he's in a 3qb build and maybe 2275 01:57:34,900 --> 01:57:38,000 you have Stafford shielding him for most of the Season, 2276 01:57:38,400 --> 01:57:40,200 something like that. Seems Seems okay. 2277 01:57:40,200 --> 01:57:42,700 I don't think that's my preferred way to play it, but I 2278 01:57:42,700 --> 01:57:44,100 think. Yeah, I think you kind of have 2279 01:57:44,100 --> 01:57:46,200 to take Lansing three quarterback builds, which, like 2280 01:57:46,500 --> 01:57:50,200 immediately limits sort of how I think if you're doing it. 2281 01:57:50,200 --> 01:57:53,000 Just just like go balls to the wall and go like Josh Allen 2282 01:57:53,000 --> 01:57:55,300 Lance. Just feel like I barely going to 2283 01:57:55,300 --> 01:57:58,300 need you please. There, when I do I guess that's 2284 01:57:58,300 --> 01:58:01,300 fair to. I was thinking you want the two 2285 01:58:01,300 --> 01:58:04,600 other guys to balance them out, like not playing covering the 2286 01:58:04,600 --> 01:58:07,500 bye week, right? That's fair to, I think that's 2287 01:58:07,500 --> 01:58:13,000 that's reasonable. These are the cheap teams we've 2288 01:58:13,000 --> 01:58:15,600 kind of made this point. I think there's some cheap teams 2289 01:58:15,600 --> 01:58:19,500 with upside if they're just okay and not horrible. 2290 01:58:21,800 --> 01:58:24,900 Yeah the Patriots. I'll make a quick case for the 2291 01:58:24,900 --> 01:58:28,200 Patriots. They were able to have Matt 2292 01:58:28,200 --> 01:58:30,600 picture, she had doing architecture office. 2293 01:58:31,400 --> 01:58:32,600 Okay. Let's move on. 2294 01:58:32,700 --> 01:58:38,300 Okay, that's that's entire case. But they were they were a top 10 2295 01:58:38,300 --> 01:58:43,000 scoring offense in 2020. Yeah 2020. 2296 01:58:43,000 --> 01:58:44,700 Believe in Mac Jones for dead man. 2297 01:58:44,700 --> 01:58:46,200 I attacked him on as a third quarterback. 2298 01:58:46,300 --> 01:58:48,300 I guess. The only thing with him is like 2299 01:58:48,500 --> 01:58:50,500 do you buy that? He's at risk of, losing his job 2300 01:58:50,500 --> 01:58:52,200 to Billy's a p. In which case he's a terrible 2301 01:58:52,200 --> 01:58:56,800 pick, if he's if he has job security, Then I think he's a 2302 01:58:56,800 --> 01:58:59,300 pretty decent pic. It's not a great pic. 2303 01:58:59,300 --> 01:59:02,800 Yeah, That's the thing. I've been stacking the Patriots 2304 01:59:02,800 --> 01:59:05,500 without Mac because that's probably the way to go. 2305 01:59:05,500 --> 01:59:10,200 Yeah that's because upper yeah if we get if we get to September 2306 01:59:10,200 --> 01:59:12,500 and it's a good it's a good backdoor stack though. 2307 01:59:12,500 --> 01:59:15,900 If you got an expensive team, if you have them a homes or Hertz 2308 01:59:15,900 --> 01:59:19,200 or an allen you can do Georgie get locked out you can do 2309 01:59:19,200 --> 01:59:20,300 kiseki. Yeah. 2310 01:59:21,900 --> 01:59:24,000 Thornton sitting right there. You can get Thornton very 2311 01:59:24,000 --> 01:59:28,300 easily. Hunter Hunter, Hunter Henry and 2312 01:59:28,300 --> 01:59:32,300 and get sticky is a little bit like the knocks Kincaid thing. 2313 01:59:32,400 --> 01:59:34,300 Hunter Henry is there starting tent-like? 2314 01:59:34,300 --> 01:59:36,000 People are yes. Wrong Hunter Henry's. 2315 01:59:36,000 --> 01:59:40,000 I agreed and like I don't get too sticky like 40 picks out of 2316 01:59:40,000 --> 01:59:40,800 Hunter. Henry. 2317 01:59:41,300 --> 01:59:44,100 Just, we just did this. You're drafting jaanu again. 2318 01:59:44,200 --> 01:59:46,000 Congratulations to draft a big dummy. 2319 01:59:46,400 --> 01:59:49,100 You're Drafting jaanu and the only like, if you're talking 2320 01:59:49,100 --> 01:59:51,700 self the story where he's the big slot again, you're telling 2321 01:59:51,700 --> 01:59:54,700 yourself the Kincaid story, it's not a story that happens very 2322 01:59:54,700 --> 01:59:57,300 often. He's going to be he's going to 2323 01:59:57,308 --> 02:00:00,200 be a 50% route guy in this offense or something like that. 2324 02:00:00,200 --> 02:00:02,400 Yeah. Hey mi Madness, not guys. 2325 02:00:02,400 --> 02:00:04,100 Entire career, he's never done anything. 2326 02:00:04,500 --> 02:00:06,900 How mad are people going to be when Jeremy Smith scores more 2327 02:00:06,900 --> 02:00:09,200 have PPR points than Kyle pits this season? 2328 02:00:13,200 --> 02:00:16,700 This is grow, I'm mad at you. Like what that means? 2329 02:00:16,800 --> 02:00:19,200 Would that be the worst thing? Arthur Smith has ever done. 2330 02:00:21,000 --> 02:00:27,900 I don't know, whatever it upset my night, who's the guy that 2331 02:00:27,900 --> 02:00:33,400 week after child, sleep my co-workers, Michael prugh. 2332 02:00:33,400 --> 02:00:34,900 It had more touchdowns last season. 2333 02:00:34,900 --> 02:00:37,800 The carpets has in his career. Come on. 2334 02:00:44,000 --> 02:00:46,000 Davis, Davis is tired and wants to go to bed. 2335 02:00:46,000 --> 02:00:58,100 He's trying to sabotage, mr. Harvey, I don't know, I don't 2336 02:00:58,100 --> 02:01:00,600 know if I have the energy for a. He did running back for 2337 02:01:00,600 --> 02:01:02,400 Slaughter Seaver debate now. Let's do it. 2338 02:01:02,400 --> 02:01:03,800 I want it. Let's let's do you want to do 2339 02:01:03,800 --> 02:01:05,800 it? Yeah, I thought this is the 2340 02:01:05,800 --> 02:01:07,500 whole night. I've been sitting here, waiting. 2341 02:01:07,500 --> 02:01:10,200 All you about running backs and you tell me about like fucking 2342 02:01:10,700 --> 02:01:12,100 Kenneth game. I'm walls falling. 2343 02:01:12,100 --> 02:01:16,000 Like we're talking about move, an Jefferson versus poo kokua 2344 02:01:16,000 --> 02:01:18,700 for 20 minutes. Yeah, I want this running back 2345 02:01:18,700 --> 02:01:20,200 debate. I'm all geared up for it. 2346 02:01:20,300 --> 02:01:24,800 Okay, let me lay you lay the guards. 2347 02:01:24,800 --> 02:01:26,100 Actually, think we might agree too much. 2348 02:01:26,100 --> 02:01:28,700 So you give me some things to disagree with because I think we 2349 02:01:28,700 --> 02:01:31,000 generally might agree. Some okay. 2350 02:01:31,200 --> 02:01:36,400 Okay. So what this chart is is 2351 02:01:36,400 --> 02:01:41,200 basically you look at the blue lines that is what the ADP was. 2352 02:01:41,300 --> 02:01:43,400 Last year for these different positional tears. 2353 02:01:43,400 --> 02:01:47,600 So look at quarterback one. We see that. 2354 02:01:47,600 --> 02:01:52,100 Blue line is around 65 70, 80 P. That means the average 2355 02:01:52,100 --> 02:01:54,500 quarterbacks 1 through 12 last year, we're going out around 2356 02:01:54,600 --> 02:01:58,500 pick 70 this year. We see that black line 2357 02:01:58,500 --> 02:02:01,900 quarterbacks are going at around pick 50 quarterbacks 1 through 2358 02:02:01,900 --> 02:02:03,300 12. So that's how you read this 2359 02:02:03,300 --> 02:02:04,500 chart. It's look at the different 2360 02:02:04,500 --> 02:02:09,800 positional Tears by ATP and the shifts from last year to this 2361 02:02:09,800 --> 02:02:11,200 year. So you see quarterbacks that 2362 02:02:11,300 --> 02:02:13,200 that black line is below the blue line. 2363 02:02:13,200 --> 02:02:16,000 That means quarterbacks are more expensive than they were last 2364 02:02:16,000 --> 02:02:17,500 year. Running backs. 2365 02:02:17,500 --> 02:02:19,900 You see the blue line below the black line. 2366 02:02:20,700 --> 02:02:23,900 That means that wide receivers are sorry running backs are 2367 02:02:23,900 --> 02:02:26,600 cheaper than they were last year, so that's going to read 2368 02:02:26,600 --> 02:02:29,600 this chart. I want to zoom in actually, take 2369 02:02:29,600 --> 02:02:34,000 out some of the the deeper stuff I'm taking out the tight end to 2370 02:02:34,000 --> 02:02:36,400 is whatever. This is just sort of the the 2371 02:02:36,400 --> 02:02:37,900 tears, We Care a little bit more about it. 2372 02:02:37,907 --> 02:02:41,000 Yes, this is quarterback ones. Running back ones. 2373 02:02:41,500 --> 02:02:44,000 Running back to the threes wide receiver ones water, super two 2374 02:02:44,000 --> 02:02:47,400 and three is and tight ends. So same chart, I'm just sort of 2375 02:02:47,400 --> 02:02:50,500 zooming in a little bit. The biggest thing you'll notice 2376 02:02:50,500 --> 02:02:53,400 in the draft landscape, this year, compared to last year is 2377 02:02:53,400 --> 02:02:56,300 the quarterbacks are going much more expensive. 2378 02:02:57,100 --> 02:03:00,700 The running backs are going much cheaper, and the wide receiver 2379 02:03:00,700 --> 02:03:04,500 ones are going more expensive. Not, not the wide receiver twos, 2380 02:03:04,500 --> 02:03:08,000 and threes, just sort of the wide receiver ones are actually 2381 02:03:08,000 --> 02:03:09,700 going more expensive compared to last year. 2382 02:03:10,700 --> 02:03:13,600 And I think I think honestly and I wish I had the chart to pull 2383 02:03:13,600 --> 02:03:18,700 up but I think drafters are kind of learning the wrong lessons 2384 02:03:18,700 --> 02:03:23,300 from last year in terms of how scoring went running back ones, 2385 02:03:23,700 --> 02:03:27,600 who are now going at, pick 20 by 80 tea, instead of water Seaver 2386 02:03:27,600 --> 02:03:29,100 one. So we're going to pick 10 2387 02:03:30,000 --> 02:03:31,800 running back. One's actually out performed 2388 02:03:31,800 --> 02:03:35,100 wide receiver wants in terms of delivering Spike weeks at the 2389 02:03:35,100 --> 02:03:36,800 running back position. We're running backs. 2390 02:03:36,800 --> 02:03:39,900 Really got hammered is the running back twos and threes 2391 02:03:40,100 --> 02:03:41,200 called. Absolutely. 2392 02:03:41,400 --> 02:03:43,200 By the wide receiver twos, and threes. 2393 02:03:43,500 --> 02:03:46,600 So I think, like an appropriate reaction to that should have 2394 02:03:46,600 --> 02:03:48,300 been to basically keep the running back. 2395 02:03:48,300 --> 02:03:52,000 One's priced where they are, maybe slightly cheaper, I'd be 2396 02:03:52,000 --> 02:03:54,700 okay with that. But what people are doing now is 2397 02:03:54,700 --> 02:03:57,800 essentially saying wide, receiver ones are much better 2398 02:03:57,800 --> 02:04:01,100 bets for Spike weeks than running back ones by ATP. 2399 02:04:01,200 --> 02:04:04,300 Like it's a huge gap. Like average of 1080p for water, 2400 02:04:04,300 --> 02:04:07,500 super one's average of 20 ATP for running back ones like 2401 02:04:07,800 --> 02:04:09,600 that's a big gap. That's why we see you know, 2402 02:04:09,700 --> 02:04:12,500 Ramon Dre, going near K Medcalf and my opinion. 2403 02:04:12,500 --> 02:04:14,500 That's like insane. You know, Josh shakeups going 2404 02:04:14,500 --> 02:04:17,000 next to you Higgins and my opinion like that that's just 2405 02:04:17,000 --> 02:04:20,300 wrong. So I think that's my argument is 2406 02:04:20,300 --> 02:04:22,800 that like I'm totally with you, like wide receiver, heavy 2407 02:04:22,800 --> 02:04:27,600 builds, but to me, we're punishing the running back ones 2408 02:04:27,700 --> 02:04:30,800 when we shouldn't be, and they're sort of this Elite tier 2409 02:04:30,800 --> 02:04:33,600 of running backs where if you don't get them, I don't think 2410 02:04:33,600 --> 02:04:38,200 you can match their ceiling and I think people just don't want 2411 02:04:38,200 --> 02:04:40,000 to admit that. You know, you're running back 2412 02:04:40,000 --> 02:04:42,600 works. It's not because these running 2413 02:04:42,600 --> 02:04:45,000 back ones, don't have massive ceiling and aren't sort of 2414 02:04:45,000 --> 02:04:46,800 efficient by ATP. Like, we've seen that for 2415 02:04:46,800 --> 02:04:50,100 several years, that if you want upside at running back, like, 2416 02:04:50,100 --> 02:04:52,600 get one or two of these, these high up, Cedric, hi upside 2417 02:04:52,600 --> 02:04:54,700 running back. So, that's how I kind of relate 2418 02:04:54,700 --> 02:04:57,800 if you landscape. That was a lot Pat, rewrite, 2419 02:04:57,800 --> 02:05:00,700 that we sort of agree more than we disagree or well, I think we 2420 02:05:00,700 --> 02:05:03,900 agree in that. Like if you're sitting at the 2421 02:05:03,900 --> 02:05:09,200 105 and I had peed on legendary upside podcast earlier this 2422 02:05:09,200 --> 02:05:12,400 week, and he was making a point the like, His the comfiest spot 2423 02:05:12,400 --> 02:05:16,000 in the draft right now is like you know 104 105 you grab like 2424 02:05:16,000 --> 02:05:20,000 Tyree kill and then you can get like Tony Pollard and reminder 2425 02:05:20,000 --> 02:05:23,600 Stevenson or Tony Pollard and Josh Jacobs or Bruce Hall Bruce 2426 02:05:23,600 --> 02:05:25,100 Hall comes back in the mid third. 2427 02:05:25,400 --> 02:05:30,100 I mean like I don't have I think I feel like there's like so much 2428 02:05:30,100 --> 02:05:32,600 agreement on that but I'm surprised it's still happening 2429 02:05:32,900 --> 02:05:36,500 because that is really comfy. You just grab grab that wide 2430 02:05:36,500 --> 02:05:41,100 receiver one and then yeah, you can get the running back. 2431 02:05:41,300 --> 02:05:44,200 In round two and three. I think the thing maybe that we 2432 02:05:44,200 --> 02:05:48,400 disagree on some what is like that? 2433 02:05:48,400 --> 02:05:51,300 Like I probably doing more of the one version. 2434 02:05:51,300 --> 02:05:54,500 One running back version of that like I'll often take like I'll 2435 02:05:54,500 --> 02:05:58,300 do a lava if I'm further up like if I'm out of the like let's say 2436 02:05:58,300 --> 02:06:03,700 102 or 103 and a lot of these there aspetta mean it's 2437 02:06:03,700 --> 02:06:06,500 obviously if I have McCaffrey but let's say I had like Jamar 2438 02:06:06,500 --> 02:06:10,600 Chase grab a Lobby and then I'm like I know there's me a running 2439 02:06:10,600 --> 02:06:12,200 back here. I like that part. 2440 02:06:12,200 --> 02:06:14,700 I'm not worried about what I'm worried about is, I don't really 2441 02:06:14,700 --> 02:06:18,700 want to go running back running back right now and the reason is 2442 02:06:18,700 --> 02:06:22,100 that I don't want to ever get locked out a wide receiver. 2443 02:06:22,300 --> 02:06:26,400 And in these rooms you can get like really locked out, you can 2444 02:06:26,400 --> 02:06:28,800 piece it together. Like I had one where I had like 2445 02:06:28,800 --> 02:06:31,700 three wide receivers. I think through like eight 2446 02:06:31,700 --> 02:06:35,800 rounds and tacked on like kind of a guy who didn't really 2447 02:06:35,800 --> 02:06:39,300 belong like it maybe in the ninth or tenth and then I got 2448 02:06:39,300 --> 02:06:42,800 like Nico Collins and Alec Pearson, you know, I probably 2449 02:06:42,800 --> 02:06:45,600 took Mingo or whatever like you could, I'm like I have to dig 2450 02:06:45,600 --> 02:06:49,200 out of this hole but like that's a spot that I like, rarely want 2451 02:06:49,200 --> 02:06:52,300 to be in. And I think that that is 2452 02:06:52,700 --> 02:06:54,300 partially. What's driving? 2453 02:06:55,100 --> 02:06:56,800 The atp's? In the early rounds is that I 2454 02:06:56,800 --> 02:07:00,000 think drafters. Generally like feel really 2455 02:07:00,000 --> 02:07:04,700 comfortable taking running backs in rounds like 8 9, 10, 11 12, 2456 02:07:05,000 --> 02:07:07,700 and you'll see like in these drafts the whole board will be 2457 02:07:07,700 --> 02:07:10,100 green. And anytime I get to that pocket 2458 02:07:10,100 --> 02:07:12,800 of the draft, I want to be ready to go at running back. 2459 02:07:12,800 --> 02:07:17,200 I want to be like hell, yeah. I sigh my whole draft is set up 2460 02:07:17,200 --> 02:07:20,500 to just take three of these dudes and this draft felt me 2461 02:07:20,500 --> 02:07:25,000 beautifully, a lot of the drafts of all that way and so I guess 2462 02:07:25,000 --> 02:07:28,700 like I would sort of, I kind of pushed back on the idea that At 2463 02:07:28,700 --> 02:07:33,400 like, this is somehow like that or inefficient, I don't know 2464 02:07:33,400 --> 02:07:36,000 that it is necessarily an efficient. 2465 02:07:36,000 --> 02:07:39,700 Once you consider how the rest of the draft is going to play 2466 02:07:39,700 --> 02:07:43,000 out as a result of the wide receivers continually kind of 2467 02:07:43,000 --> 02:07:46,200 being they're priced up early and then they're not there's not 2468 02:07:46,200 --> 02:07:50,000 a discount later. And so it just creates this 2469 02:07:50,000 --> 02:07:54,700 massive Cliff at wide receiver and I think you're really a 2470 02:07:54,700 --> 02:07:57,300 disadvantage. If you aren't, you know, 2471 02:07:57,300 --> 02:07:59,500 sufficiently loaded up before. That Cliff hit. 2472 02:07:59,500 --> 02:08:04,600 So while I do think that the two three turn and the I mean, it's 2473 02:08:04,600 --> 02:08:06,700 beyond the turn, it's a middle of the third round, you're going 2474 02:08:06,700 --> 02:08:09,600 to be running backs, like really good running backs, that's 2475 02:08:09,600 --> 02:08:13,300 definitely something you want to be taking advantage of for sure. 2476 02:08:13,400 --> 02:08:16,600 But I don't think it's something to be like I'm throwing out 2477 02:08:16,600 --> 02:08:19,100 everything else in this is I'm just focusing on this because I 2478 02:08:19,100 --> 02:08:22,300 think if you if you build your all your drafts around that 2479 02:08:22,300 --> 02:08:24,600 you're you're going to get really really burned in some of 2480 02:08:24,608 --> 02:08:26,500 them but you're probably doing that more than me. 2481 02:08:26,500 --> 02:08:28,200 So I don't know. Are you, are you finding that? 2482 02:08:28,700 --> 02:08:33,200 So I'll say a couple things number one. 2483 02:08:33,200 --> 02:08:37,500 The reason why I think it's okay to like just completely zero in 2484 02:08:37,500 --> 02:08:40,200 on that and ignore everything else is because I'd like we 2485 02:08:40,200 --> 02:08:43,300 showed at the top of the show. I do think this ATP is going to 2486 02:08:43,300 --> 02:08:45,300 correct. Pollard is going to be a mid s 2487 02:08:45,300 --> 02:08:46,500 pick. Jacobs is going to be a mid 2488 02:08:46,500 --> 02:08:49,100 second pick if you want these wide receiver running back 2489 02:08:49,100 --> 02:08:52,800 running back combos, I don't think you're maybe in these piss 2490 02:08:52,800 --> 02:08:54,600 blood drafts repeats Drafting and all summer. 2491 02:08:54,600 --> 02:08:56,400 Maybe you can get those whenever he wants. 2492 02:08:56,800 --> 02:09:00,500 I kind of by that he will. But but in a normal in a normal 2493 02:09:00,500 --> 02:09:03,400 draft, you're not going to get those also, that's what I'm 2494 02:09:03,400 --> 02:09:05,900 saying. Like I'm doing, probably 25, I 2495 02:09:05,900 --> 02:09:08,100 actually have inserted drafting table for the schedule, but when 2496 02:09:08,100 --> 02:09:10,200 I do start drafting, I'm probably doing like twenty five 2497 02:09:10,200 --> 02:09:13,600 drafts in June or something. I'm probably like at at you know 2498 02:09:13,600 --> 02:09:15,800 picks one through five. I'm doing that wide receiver, 2499 02:09:15,800 --> 02:09:19,800 running back running back thing as much as I can then like 2500 02:09:19,800 --> 02:09:22,800 hundred percent of the time if the room allows me to because I 2501 02:09:22,808 --> 02:09:26,100 have a strong belief that that ADP is not going to hold Jacobs. 2502 02:09:26,100 --> 02:09:29,200 In the third round is not going to hold or Mantra it pick DEC 30 2503 02:09:29,200 --> 02:09:31,700 2013 11. So that's the first thing I'll 2504 02:09:31,700 --> 02:09:34,900 say I do agree with you though that like part of the element, 2505 02:09:34,900 --> 02:09:37,500 right? Is like if you don't take wide 2506 02:09:37,500 --> 02:09:40,000 receivers early like I'm certainly not advocating for 2507 02:09:40,000 --> 02:09:43,100 like if I go running back running back early I'm not 2508 02:09:43,100 --> 02:09:46,700 tacking on like another running back in the 4th or like I'm not 2509 02:09:46,700 --> 02:09:48,800 really searching out another running back in the fifth or 2510 02:09:48,800 --> 02:09:52,000 sixth like I am playing it, how you're describing it. 2511 02:09:52,000 --> 02:09:54,400 Where, you know, I take those two running backs and rounds two 2512 02:09:54,400 --> 02:09:57,400 and three. I'm waiting until that round 9 2513 02:09:57,400 --> 02:10:01,000 through 12 range. And I'm probably taking like two 2514 02:10:01,200 --> 02:10:04,400 guys in that range, right? So I'm still feel like I'm 2515 02:10:04,400 --> 02:10:08,000 getting The Sweet Spot. You know nice to 12th round 2516 02:10:08,300 --> 02:10:10,100 running back range. Like I'm still getting a couple 2517 02:10:10,100 --> 02:10:12,200 of those guys and those drafts and them like either I'm 2518 02:10:12,200 --> 02:10:15,400 stopping or maybe I'm tacking on for net, as a fifth running back 2519 02:10:15,400 --> 02:10:17,100 in the 18th or something like that, right? 2520 02:10:17,100 --> 02:10:20,300 So, you know, I just think that people are, oh, I think people 2521 02:10:20,300 --> 02:10:23,400 are galaxies branding, like, oh, you know, and not to pick on 2522 02:10:23,400 --> 02:10:26,300 people, but I watch his streams lot, obviously super sharp. 2523 02:10:26,300 --> 02:10:29,800 But like, what I see him, do a lot of the Return is like oh 2524 02:10:29,800 --> 02:10:32,700 like the 2 by 2. If I take a lava here that I can 2525 02:10:32,700 --> 02:10:35,500 still get like Ramon Dre in the third and like I kind of get 2526 02:10:35,500 --> 02:10:38,000 that line of thinking about like some people are almost 2527 02:10:38,000 --> 02:10:41,100 pretending like you can't just go running back in the two three 2528 02:10:41,100 --> 02:10:43,000 turn and I'm not saying that's what Pete's doing. 2529 02:10:43,008 --> 02:10:45,600 I'm not trying to like set up some straw man for now, but I 2530 02:10:45,600 --> 02:10:48,100 think a lot of people are over thinking that when like 2531 02:10:48,100 --> 02:10:51,800 comparing and I pulled up this chart here, like comparing 2532 02:10:51,800 --> 02:10:55,100 running back ones. Like you know, Jacobs is like 2533 02:10:55,100 --> 02:10:58,000 the running back eight or something versus like T Higgins. 2534 02:10:58,000 --> 02:11:00,600 Just Historically, that running back. 2535 02:11:00,600 --> 02:11:04,600 One bet is just such a higher bet for a spike week than that 2536 02:11:04,600 --> 02:11:07,200 wide receiver to bet particularly like the wide 2537 02:11:07,200 --> 02:11:09,400 receiver to who's the water secret to on his own team. 2538 02:11:09,400 --> 02:11:12,100 That's a whole other topic but like, man, I think you're 2539 02:11:12,100 --> 02:11:15,300 overthinking it a little bit. If you're like doing that like 2540 02:11:15,500 --> 02:11:17,700 odd like on might be locked down in the seventh or eighth like 2541 02:11:17,700 --> 02:11:21,200 I'm just doing like hey water it I'm taking you know Cooper cop 2542 02:11:21,200 --> 02:11:23,900 I'm taking two running backs. I think I can take three wide 2543 02:11:23,900 --> 02:11:28,100 receivers in the next four or five rounds and like Bok Bok, 2544 02:11:28,100 --> 02:11:30,600 I'm not That worried about it when like, I think that just 2545 02:11:30,600 --> 02:11:35,000 like Pollard verse T Higgins, like met kafirs from entree. 2546 02:11:35,000 --> 02:11:38,000 Like, it's just such an obvious like ceiling projection of one 2547 02:11:38,000 --> 02:11:40,200 guy is like so much better than the ceiling projection of 2548 02:11:40,200 --> 02:11:44,000 another guy, like, in my opinion and how I look at things that 2549 02:11:44,000 --> 02:11:46,800 like, I'm just not overthinking it that much, especially when I 2550 02:11:46,800 --> 02:11:48,900 think the ADP landscape is going to be changing. 2551 02:11:48,900 --> 02:11:51,600 So, does that. Does that make sense? 2552 02:11:52,400 --> 02:11:53,700 Yeah, no, I think it makes sense. 2553 02:11:53,700 --> 02:11:57,100 I think one thing for me is like, you know, it makes it a 2554 02:11:57,108 --> 02:11:59,800 little more difficult is I think, McAndrews is a really 2555 02:11:59,800 --> 02:12:02,500 strong value right now. I think I don't want to be 2556 02:12:02,500 --> 02:12:07,200 completely locked out of the elite quarterbacks and so that's 2557 02:12:07,200 --> 02:12:10,000 like one reason that I'm not just absolutely hammering kind 2558 02:12:10,000 --> 02:12:11,900 of wide receiver running back running back starts. 2559 02:12:13,500 --> 02:12:16,800 But I think that's, you know, the fact that the 80 I do feel 2560 02:12:16,800 --> 02:12:20,400 pretty strongly that the atp's are going to shift. 2561 02:12:20,500 --> 02:12:23,300 I don't. Maybe I wouldn't be like shocked 2562 02:12:23,300 --> 02:12:26,900 if these guys like stuck a little later than we had 2563 02:12:26,900 --> 02:12:28,700 projected to begin the show. Show. 2564 02:12:28,700 --> 02:12:34,100 But Bruce Hall is either going to be like a seventh-round pick 2565 02:12:34,100 --> 02:12:37,000 or a late second round pick. Right? 2566 02:12:37,000 --> 02:12:39,400 Like we're going to feel good or bad about his knee. 2567 02:12:39,700 --> 02:12:41,900 I don't think he's going to be in the mid third form. 2568 02:12:41,900 --> 02:12:45,100 Andre, it does seem really surprising that he's in the mid 2569 02:12:45,100 --> 02:12:49,300 third so I think I would like it if you have the chance to go 2570 02:12:49,900 --> 02:12:53,600 wide receiver Pollard running back, something like that. 2571 02:12:53,600 --> 02:12:58,100 I mean that's probably not going to be around later. 2572 02:12:58,100 --> 02:13:03,700 So I think I'm like maybe a little bit less excited about 2573 02:13:03,700 --> 02:13:07,700 the prospect of of loading up on that like on a like a really 2574 02:13:07,700 --> 02:13:11,700 high percentage of my team's but It's a weird constructions, not 2575 02:13:11,700 --> 02:13:13,500 construction. I've ever really done much of, 2576 02:13:13,500 --> 02:13:16,800 and I'm doing it a fair amount. So, you know, I think largely, 2577 02:13:16,800 --> 02:13:20,100 we're on the same page, that it's definitely like an offering 2578 02:13:20,100 --> 02:13:22,200 that the market is providing right now. 2579 02:13:22,200 --> 02:13:27,400 That is not common and yep. It gives a lot of upsides of the 2580 02:13:27,400 --> 02:13:30,400 bill. Yeah, I want to, I know, we're 2581 02:13:30,400 --> 02:13:33,200 keeping Davis up and I'll continue this conversation if 2582 02:13:33,200 --> 02:13:36,600 you want. But let's, let's let Davis get 2583 02:13:36,600 --> 02:13:38,200 out of here. Davis give us give us. 2584 02:13:38,200 --> 02:13:40,400 You don't have to be long. Give us your Sat p-value before 2585 02:13:40,400 --> 02:13:43,100 you go, if you got one top of mind, I'm going to let you go to 2586 02:13:43,100 --> 02:13:46,800 bed. Chris, God, one God, one Baker, 2587 02:13:46,800 --> 02:13:48,700 Mayfield, stocks, baby, beautiful. 2588 02:13:49,000 --> 02:13:51,100 I'll see you guys soon. See you Davis. 2589 02:13:54,000 --> 02:13:55,900 Pat's your point, okay? I get what you're saying. 2590 02:13:55,900 --> 02:13:59,900 And like if I had to commit to again, if I had to commit to 2591 02:13:59,900 --> 02:14:03,300 100% of my team's being wide receiver running back running 2592 02:14:03,300 --> 02:14:05,600 back. Now I would not do that but 2593 02:14:05,600 --> 02:14:08,900 again, like I think I'm no, no. I'm just saying that's what I'm 2594 02:14:08,907 --> 02:14:10,200 doing. Yeah, exactly. 2595 02:14:10,200 --> 02:14:12,300 Yeah, that's what I'm saying is like I really think these 2596 02:14:12,300 --> 02:14:14,400 combos. Like there's going to be a 2597 02:14:14,400 --> 02:14:19,600 window once we know week 17 and like before this ATP changes, I 2598 02:14:19,600 --> 02:14:21,600 think it's going to be kind of a tight window where you can get 2599 02:14:21,600 --> 02:14:25,100 these type of It's in. And I just think that like there 2600 02:14:25,600 --> 02:14:28,100 to how I look at things and like, how the mass shakes out of 2601 02:14:28,100 --> 02:14:29,700 store Oakley. Like, I know, we don't always 2602 02:14:29,700 --> 02:14:31,900 agree in all those things but, like, all right, I think you'd 2603 02:14:31,900 --> 02:14:34,500 agree with me right that like, ceiling, projection like Ramon 2604 02:14:34,500 --> 02:14:38,000 drabers like decayed Metcalf. Like is that even close for who 2605 02:14:38,000 --> 02:14:40,900 has the higher ceiling? No, I think from Madras, got a 2606 02:14:40,900 --> 02:14:42,800 higher ceiling, for sure. Yeah. 2607 02:14:43,000 --> 02:14:47,100 And like I yeah, I think one of the things though is that like 2608 02:14:48,500 --> 02:14:53,600 This a teepee environment. Is creating at a pocket of value 2609 02:14:53,600 --> 02:14:56,400 at running back later in the draft. 2610 02:14:56,400 --> 02:15:02,300 And when things shift, it will also shift the other pockets of 2611 02:15:02,300 --> 02:15:06,100 the draft so that, you know, you're going to be potentially 2612 02:15:06,100 --> 02:15:11,700 in a situation where there isn't that massive massive Cliff at 2613 02:15:11,700 --> 02:15:16,700 wide receiver and later in the summer taking an early round 2614 02:15:16,700 --> 02:15:19,600 running back actually in some ways feels more comfortable, you 2615 02:15:19,600 --> 02:15:22,200 know, at least it's somewhat Unlike me, who's thinking about 2616 02:15:22,200 --> 02:15:24,900 what my wide receiver 5 is going to look like in the in the 2617 02:15:24,900 --> 02:15:29,800 second round. So like that part of it, you 2618 02:15:29,800 --> 02:15:32,300 know? And to be honest, I think that 2619 02:15:32,300 --> 02:15:34,000 is an advantage of drafting right now. 2620 02:15:34,000 --> 02:15:38,400 Like, I think, you know, getting like I want to be overweight on 2621 02:15:38,800 --> 02:15:41,700 the James Cook's and the Zach charbonnet is like, I think 2622 02:15:41,700 --> 02:15:44,100 Zach's harmonies are really. He's a second-round running back 2623 02:15:44,100 --> 02:15:47,100 with sighs. You know, when a team likes to 2624 02:15:47,100 --> 02:15:50,100 run the ball, I know kind of Walker's there but like it's, 2625 02:15:50,200 --> 02:15:52,100 yes. Changes bad is a guy who you 2626 02:15:52,100 --> 02:15:55,000 know kind of Walker. Misses two games, I think 2627 02:15:55,000 --> 02:15:57,700 charbonnet is really nice, you know I think there's a lot of 2628 02:15:57,708 --> 02:16:05,000 guys in that range that I do like taking so and and guys who 2629 02:16:05,000 --> 02:16:09,300 I like taking and then I feel like my overall team strength. 2630 02:16:10,400 --> 02:16:14,400 Is pretty nice like where if you're going to do a two V two. 2631 02:16:14,600 --> 02:16:17,200 And I know you wouldn't like necessarily do this because you 2632 02:16:17,200 --> 02:16:20,400 could be taking a quarterback in the ninth round. 2633 02:16:20,400 --> 02:16:22,300 You know, if you went wide receiver running back running 2634 02:16:22,300 --> 02:16:24,900 back but the wide receivers available in the ninth round 2635 02:16:24,900 --> 02:16:27,200 generally suck. You know where the tenth round 2636 02:16:27,200 --> 02:16:33,400 it really sucks and so yes I'm giving up some projection in the 2637 02:16:33,400 --> 02:16:39,200 1 V 1 in that early round if I'm not taking you know, reminder 2638 02:16:39,200 --> 02:16:41,200 Stephenson for DK. Mecca, which would probably be 2639 02:16:41,200 --> 02:16:43,700 the most extreme example. I'm like wait, I didn't include 2640 02:16:43,700 --> 02:16:47,500 DK Metcalf in my top 36. I think she's like, yeah, but 2641 02:16:47,500 --> 02:16:50,299 it's extreme but like let's say Debo Samuel like Debo same overs 2642 02:16:50,299 --> 02:16:54,000 from Andre like but I'm not, you know, I could talk myself into 2643 02:16:54,000 --> 02:16:58,100 Debo, you know, I could I could talk myself in there because I'm 2644 02:16:58,100 --> 02:17:01,100 going to be able to get a running back later and I'm going 2645 02:17:01,100 --> 02:17:03,200 to be able to get, you know, a few running. 2646 02:17:03,200 --> 02:17:05,600 But it's not just like one dude who I'm like hoping he falls is 2647 02:17:05,600 --> 02:17:09,700 like it's a its fertile ground in that pocket of the draft. 2648 02:17:09,900 --> 02:17:13,900 And That also does strike me as something that may be part of 2649 02:17:13,900 --> 02:17:17,600 the drafting landscape in. May, it might not be, we might 2650 02:17:17,600 --> 02:17:20,700 not feel as good about that pocket partially because we'll 2651 02:17:20,700 --> 02:17:24,200 get more information about which one's of those were not as good 2652 02:17:24,200 --> 02:17:26,799 bets as we thought and which were really good bets. 2653 02:17:27,500 --> 02:17:31,400 But yeah, that's kind of, like, one of the overall reasons that 2654 02:17:31,400 --> 02:17:34,900 I'm kind of like, you know, sometimes I'll skip, but I 2655 02:17:34,900 --> 02:17:38,299 here's our say I'm ahem. I am going 0 running back a lot 2656 02:17:38,299 --> 02:17:40,000 less than I'm used to. I did. 2657 02:17:40,100 --> 02:17:42,200 Add 10 running back. Drafted a that was pretty fun. 2658 02:17:42,200 --> 02:17:47,200 I got Rashad, why does my rb1 I think I could delete leak 2659 02:17:47,200 --> 02:17:51,400 quarterback and delete tight end which is kind of, you know how I 2660 02:17:51,407 --> 02:17:53,700 got there. But but maybe that's like 2661 02:17:53,700 --> 02:17:56,799 another caveat to all this stuff is that normally you might just 2662 02:17:56,799 --> 02:17:59,900 do a traditional 0 running back build in this ATP environment 2663 02:17:59,900 --> 02:18:03,299 you probably want to be going like at least one Elite onesie 2664 02:18:03,400 --> 02:18:07,100 if you're doing Zero running back because the running back 2665 02:18:07,100 --> 02:18:09,200 value that you're passing on a really strong, you want to be 2666 02:18:09,200 --> 02:18:11,400 hammering people. At a different position or than 2667 02:18:11,400 --> 02:18:14,600 just wide receiver. Yeah, that that makes sense. 2668 02:18:14,600 --> 02:18:17,799 And yeah, I think we agree on like the different groupings of 2669 02:18:17,799 --> 02:18:21,600 like, when to Target guys, like I have no pushback on that 2670 02:18:21,600 --> 02:18:23,200 running back range. There's a lot of guys. 2671 02:18:23,200 --> 02:18:25,700 I certainly like in there and and like I said, I'm mixing. 2672 02:18:25,799 --> 02:18:28,299 I'm, you know, when I do these Waters to be running back 2673 02:18:28,299 --> 02:18:30,600 running back builds. I'm targeting to you guys and 2674 02:18:30,600 --> 02:18:33,500 that range, I still think that's like a fair allocation of 2675 02:18:33,500 --> 02:18:37,799 running back draft Capital, but I see what you're I see what 2676 02:18:37,799 --> 02:18:39,299 you're saying. Some extent, I guess, for me, 2677 02:18:39,299 --> 02:18:44,600 it's just that like I am like so and watch me wrong, you're wrong 2678 02:18:44,600 --> 02:18:47,400 about this but like I am so confident that these running 2679 02:18:47,400 --> 02:18:50,900 back atp's in the third round are not going to hold whereas 2680 02:18:50,900 --> 02:18:53,799 like I am not that confident about some of these running 2681 02:18:53,799 --> 02:18:56,799 backs in that range like you know, sharpen a I could see the 2682 02:18:56,799 --> 02:18:58,900 story for charbonnet going up. I can see the story for 2683 02:18:58,900 --> 02:19:01,400 charbonnet going down, I can see the story for Madison going up. 2684 02:19:01,400 --> 02:19:03,700 I can see the story of Imagine going down, like for me, it's a 2685 02:19:03,708 --> 02:19:06,000 little bit like, yes, I know, some of these guys will go down, 2686 02:19:06,000 --> 02:19:10,700 some will go up, but it's just so clear and obvious to me that 2687 02:19:10,700 --> 02:19:13,900 likes Some of these running back atp's are wrong and just on the 2688 02:19:13,907 --> 02:19:16,500 focus of getting like closing line value, getting a 2689 02:19:16,508 --> 02:19:19,900 diversified portfolio at good prices to me. 2690 02:19:19,900 --> 02:19:23,000 It just seems like I don't know. Like it's not like this hasn't 2691 02:19:23,000 --> 02:19:25,400 happened before last year. Sake, One Berkeley. 2692 02:19:25,400 --> 02:19:27,200 Thanks Mom was on the two. Three turn to start. 2693 02:19:27,200 --> 02:19:30,700 Yeah, people were so down on him because got injured the year 2694 02:19:30,700 --> 02:19:33,000 before he was the to, or who are you targeting? 2695 02:19:33,000 --> 02:19:35,799 Like if you're because there's so many of these guys and I 2696 02:19:35,807 --> 02:19:39,600 think it's honestly if there was just like one dude, if it was 2697 02:19:39,600 --> 02:19:43,700 Jacob's, he would We have moved up, but it's the fact that you 2698 02:19:44,700 --> 02:19:47,600 like, it's like, I don't need to decide and so I don't see the 2699 02:19:47,600 --> 02:19:49,900 side. Then, why am I deciding now? 2700 02:19:49,900 --> 02:19:53,200 Because I might as well take the wide receiver or the 2701 02:19:53,200 --> 02:19:54,500 quarterback. I'm not gonna be a little 2702 02:19:54,500 --> 02:19:58,200 getting third round. You who are you, who are you 2703 02:19:58,200 --> 02:20:05,500 targeting of this group's? So my favorite targets are so 2704 02:20:05,500 --> 02:20:09,900 I'd say there's a total of six running backs that go in this 2705 02:20:09,900 --> 02:20:13,900 range. Chub Pollard Henry Jacobs briefs 2706 02:20:14,100 --> 02:20:17,600 and Ramon Dre. The four guys I've been taking 2707 02:20:17,600 --> 02:20:20,500 the most are chub Pollard Jacobson dream. 2708 02:20:20,500 --> 02:20:24,600 Andre skipping on Breeze is purely, just like the injury 2709 02:20:24,600 --> 02:20:28,400 thing where I think there's a chance it could get worse before 2710 02:20:28,400 --> 02:20:31,100 it gets better, but I'm actually revisiting that. 2711 02:20:31,100 --> 02:20:32,900 I think I'm going to like mix them in. 2712 02:20:33,600 --> 02:20:36,700 I think Greece might be the guy if you can get if you want to 2713 02:20:36,700 --> 02:20:38,300 talk about upside. Yeah. 2714 02:20:38,300 --> 02:20:41,300 Healthy. I mean, he is Between the 2715 02:20:41,300 --> 02:20:44,300 legendary upside screener, that I that I have. 2716 02:20:44,700 --> 02:20:48,400 He's the top guy in it. He's ahead of me every in it. 2717 02:20:48,500 --> 02:20:52,300 He's 20. I guess he's going to turn might 2718 02:20:52,300 --> 02:20:54,500 have already turned 22. Oh no. 2719 02:20:54,500 --> 02:20:58,500 He's too, he's about to turn 22. He he's got the size. 2720 02:20:58,500 --> 02:21:01,300 He was used on the goal line. He was super efficient on the 2721 02:21:01,308 --> 02:21:04,700 ground last year at 2.00 yards per hour on which is the highest 2722 02:21:04,700 --> 02:21:08,000 of any running back here. These are all career numbers and 2723 02:21:08,000 --> 02:21:10,300 he was a rookie so that I'll come down a bit but that's like 2724 02:21:10,300 --> 02:21:13,700 higher than Macau. A 1.92, awesome. 2725 02:21:13,700 --> 02:21:17,300 Number rush, yards, over expected was really high 16. 2726 02:21:17,600 --> 02:21:19,700 That's super good office is about to improve. 2727 02:21:19,800 --> 02:21:24,700 I mean, it's like all therefore briefs he is like the archetype 2728 02:21:25,200 --> 02:21:28,600 of the legendary running back, except he's coming off a torn 2729 02:21:28,600 --> 02:21:31,300 ACL. So, yeah, that's literally the 2730 02:21:31,300 --> 02:21:33,100 only thing right now. I'm totally with you. 2731 02:21:33,100 --> 02:21:37,000 And it's also like you mentioned all those stats, like not not 2732 02:21:37,000 --> 02:21:39,400 landing spot, like Aaron Rodgers running backs. 2733 02:21:39,500 --> 02:21:41,600 Have always put up a shit. A fancy white. 2734 02:21:41,600 --> 02:21:44,100 Sometimes it's been split up between a couple guys and like 2735 02:21:44,100 --> 02:21:47,500 we haven't had, you know, the truly elite elite Seasons but 2736 02:21:47,600 --> 02:21:50,000 you know, if you combined are in Jones and Jamaal Williams 2737 02:21:50,000 --> 02:21:52,500 numbers you can buy and Dylan and Aaron Jones numbers. 2738 02:21:52,500 --> 02:21:56,700 Like, you'd be looking at some real elite running back season. 2739 02:21:56,700 --> 02:22:00,700 So I love the situation he's in, I love the Talon for me, for me, 2740 02:22:00,700 --> 02:22:03,500 it's simply been the mental block of like, I like all these 2741 02:22:03,500 --> 02:22:05,600 guys a lot. Sure if briefs was healthy, he 2742 02:22:05,600 --> 02:22:08,400 had be my favorite of the group but like that, that injury 2743 02:22:08,400 --> 02:22:10,500 concern is in the back of my head. 2744 02:22:10,600 --> 02:22:13,400 You saw I'll do that. Like I think I should be, I 2745 02:22:13,400 --> 02:22:16,500 should be mixing him in at the same rate as these other guys. 2746 02:22:17,500 --> 02:22:19,000 Like this took a turn, I didn't expect that. 2747 02:22:19,000 --> 02:22:21,500 I would be talking you into a running back but let me let me 2748 02:22:21,500 --> 02:22:25,800 just let me sell this a little more because I talked about the 2749 02:22:25,800 --> 02:22:30,100 pocket of the drafts later and you're saying you like to go 2750 02:22:30,100 --> 02:22:32,600 wide receiver running back running back and then do running 2751 02:22:32,600 --> 02:22:34,600 backs in that. Like late single-digit. 2752 02:22:34,600 --> 02:22:38,500 Early double-digit pocket. I mean, in that, in that pocket, 2753 02:22:38,500 --> 02:22:40,800 you've got James Connors at, pick 82. 2754 02:22:41,600 --> 02:22:46,400 Dave Montgomery pick 86. Brian Robinson. 2755 02:22:46,400 --> 02:22:50,400 Is it pick 107, Brian Robinson is a starting NFL running back. 2756 02:22:50,400 --> 02:22:53,900 Who I like Rollins his team doesn't hate. 2757 02:22:54,100 --> 02:22:56,300 They hate the guy. They hate Antonio Gibson. 2758 02:22:56,300 --> 02:23:00,400 We know that they like Brian Robinson, like if you need it, 2759 02:23:01,600 --> 02:23:04,800 you know, Alexander Madison is pretty interesting in that 2760 02:23:04,800 --> 02:23:07,400 Richard Penny. Although he's a bit more risky 2761 02:23:07,400 --> 02:23:11,600 in terms of what his actual role would be, but I think Decent bet 2762 02:23:11,600 --> 02:23:14,500 for early season production. Damien Harris, pretty good pep, 2763 02:23:14,500 --> 02:23:18,100 early-season production. So there's like lots of dudes 2764 02:23:18,900 --> 02:23:22,800 like Connor going, that late, and Brian Robinson going that 2765 02:23:22,800 --> 02:23:27,900 late in particular jump out to me is like, I mean, let's say, 2766 02:23:28,000 --> 02:23:30,600 let's say you don't get it in good with Bruce Hall and then 2767 02:23:30,600 --> 02:23:34,400 third round ends up being like two rounds to expensive, like, 2768 02:23:35,300 --> 02:23:37,700 okay, well, you know what, there's not that many guys in 2769 02:23:37,700 --> 02:23:40,100 third round, I really like Anyway, hero. 2770 02:23:40,300 --> 02:23:43,700 And so I think you could act like maybe you could be okay if 2771 02:23:43,700 --> 02:23:47,000 he misses like week one and two. And then he comes back and he's 2772 02:23:47,000 --> 02:23:50,100 healthy, and he's amazing and you didn't get any good with the 2773 02:23:50,100 --> 02:23:53,500 clothesline value, but he does give you some upside with the 2774 02:23:53,508 --> 02:23:55,500 closing line value to. Because if we're always here, 2775 02:23:55,500 --> 02:23:58,100 positive, Words. Yeah, and so now you're looking 2776 02:23:58,100 --> 02:24:03,200 at a guy who's maybe maybe you got a full round and it's so 2777 02:24:03,200 --> 02:24:06,400 easy to fill in the early season production at running back right 2778 02:24:06,400 --> 02:24:10,500 now, it's so easy. So to me like, man, that upside, 2779 02:24:10,500 --> 02:24:12,100 it's just really hard to not hurt. 2780 02:24:12,100 --> 02:24:15,300 I've heard some good push back on just like, hey, man, you're 2781 02:24:15,300 --> 02:24:18,100 being too optimistic on a guy, come back from an ACL tear. 2782 02:24:18,100 --> 02:24:21,700 So the other thing in this is getting into the weeds of 2783 02:24:21,700 --> 02:24:25,700 injury, it was reported that it was a meniscus injury in. 2784 02:24:26,100 --> 02:24:28,600 Into the ACL tear. Now, I haven't been able to see 2785 02:24:28,900 --> 02:24:32,900 anything on the degree to that meniscus injury, but that's if 2786 02:24:32,900 --> 02:24:35,400 you Google Reese, all ACL meniscus, that's how it was 2787 02:24:35,400 --> 02:24:38,900 originally reported and those are a little more complicated. 2788 02:24:38,900 --> 02:24:42,800 They're not as bad as the Javonte, variety of the Dobbins 2789 02:24:42,800 --> 02:24:47,800 variety, but it's been like a little murky reporting on that. 2790 02:24:47,800 --> 02:24:51,700 So that's something that's just like, give me like, I don't like 2791 02:24:51,800 --> 02:24:54,400 we haven't heard anything yet, but like, could it be worse 2792 02:24:54,400 --> 02:24:56,000 than, we know? And, and that's what's up. 2793 02:24:56,100 --> 02:24:58,800 Down. But like, yeah, if there's an 2794 02:24:58,800 --> 02:25:02,500 archetype of a guy that's going to beat the ACL recovery in one 2795 02:25:02,500 --> 02:25:05,600 year, it's certainly Breeze. Any has like he has all the 2796 02:25:05,600 --> 02:25:08,400 upside in the world and, you know, I posted a thread on it, 2797 02:25:08,400 --> 02:25:13,400 like I believe the argument that like, you know, got you're 2798 02:25:13,400 --> 02:25:15,900 taking guys with huge injuries risk or suspension rescue or 2799 02:25:15,900 --> 02:25:18,600 whatever. Like, I think, because of the, 2800 02:25:19,100 --> 02:25:20,800 how much having dead players hurts? 2801 02:25:20,800 --> 02:25:23,300 You, you got to be like a little bit careful about those bets 2802 02:25:23,500 --> 02:25:26,800 when the upside isn't there? I use like Rondell Robinson. 2803 02:25:26,800 --> 02:25:28,900 Azusa like this, this thread was really good. 2804 02:25:28,900 --> 02:25:30,800 You're ready to return thread. Yeah. 2805 02:25:31,000 --> 02:25:32,900 Like that's what, like, that's a thing, right? 2806 02:25:32,900 --> 02:25:35,400 Like if you're making a guy who's has a high chance of like 2807 02:25:35,400 --> 02:25:38,400 I put it in investing terms like a high chance of default. 2808 02:25:38,500 --> 02:25:42,500 Giving you zeros, you better be getting like a high upside to 2809 02:25:42,500 --> 02:25:47,800 justify how bad that risk of getting zeros is so for with 2810 02:25:47,800 --> 02:25:51,300 briefs he's a guy who passes the sniff test for me like he's 2811 02:25:51,300 --> 02:25:54,900 certainly he could be the running back one overall like 2812 02:25:54,900 --> 02:25:57,400 obviously that's yeah. Yeah, the most likely outcome, 2813 02:25:57,400 --> 02:26:02,600 but I don't think it's a crazy thing to say, certainly we, you 2814 02:26:02,600 --> 02:26:04,600 know, if he didn't get injured, would be saying that. 2815 02:26:04,600 --> 02:26:06,800 I would say, I wanna see if he was healthy. 2816 02:26:07,500 --> 02:26:09,200 I think he'd be my running back to. 2817 02:26:09,600 --> 02:26:11,200 I think I'd have them had a Bijan. 2818 02:26:11,200 --> 02:26:13,000 It was a rookie running back on the Falcons. 2819 02:26:13,100 --> 02:26:13,600 Okay? Yeah. 2820 02:26:13,600 --> 02:26:16,200 Just the situation for me home down, I said, priests always 2821 02:26:16,200 --> 02:26:18,100 healthy, okay? I know, I know we can't say 2822 02:26:18,100 --> 02:26:21,300 anything bad about Bijan by like Bruce Hall in his second year 2823 02:26:21,500 --> 02:26:23,600 and then Aaron Rodgers offense, totally healthy. 2824 02:26:25,700 --> 02:26:29,000 Give you my running back to I mean so I don't know that's just 2825 02:26:29,000 --> 02:26:32,200 how I have a have a hard time like knowing how much of the 2826 02:26:32,400 --> 02:26:38,100 discount to put on that Edwin. Poorest was saying some good 2827 02:26:38,100 --> 02:26:41,100 things about Bruce Hall, believe after maybe one of our ATP 2828 02:26:41,100 --> 02:26:43,900 chasing shows but I pulled up his Twitter. 2829 02:26:44,800 --> 02:26:47,300 He was saying you know the injury between him and Devonte 2830 02:26:47,300 --> 02:26:50,200 is very different from each. Other briefs wasn't complicated, 2831 02:26:50,700 --> 02:26:58,200 Javon T's is he said, Week one looks realistic for briefs so 2832 02:26:58,900 --> 02:27:01,700 you know, I don't know, you know, more about stuff than I 2833 02:27:01,700 --> 02:27:04,300 do, I do, but I know nothing. Yeah. 2834 02:27:04,300 --> 02:27:07,300 And again, I think part of the reason, like I just think that, 2835 02:27:07,300 --> 02:27:09,400 like, the way I'm thinking about briefs with ACL, that's going to 2836 02:27:09,400 --> 02:27:11,300 be in the back of people's heads for a while. 2837 02:27:11,300 --> 02:27:13,100 So this is again, I could be wrong about this. 2838 02:27:13,300 --> 02:27:19,000 Like my thought is that like, the chub Pollard, Jacobs rise to 2839 02:27:19,000 --> 02:27:23,800 the mid-late second. Like that's going to be like, 2840 02:27:24,000 --> 02:27:28,400 Liquor whereas like the briefs briefs rise to the second if it 2841 02:27:28,400 --> 02:27:32,100 does happen is going to be more like later in the season when we 2842 02:27:32,108 --> 02:27:34,500 get good training, camp reports. That's that's right. 2843 02:27:34,700 --> 02:27:36,200 Yeah. So that's why I've been like 2844 02:27:36,200 --> 02:27:38,400 more. I think like inclined to snap up 2845 02:27:38,400 --> 02:27:40,800 those other ones just because I think it's like combos I won't 2846 02:27:40,800 --> 02:27:46,400 get later. But yeah I'm gonna start mixing 2847 02:27:46,400 --> 02:27:49,900 briefs in and then I guess I should talk about Henry he's the 2848 02:27:49,908 --> 02:27:55,000 one guy I'm fading in that range or I guess I'm even saying, like 2849 02:27:55,000 --> 02:27:58,100 fading, like, I think I'll click him a little bit in these type 2850 02:27:58,100 --> 02:28:02,700 of builds, but it's just the age and the offense concerns. 2851 02:28:03,200 --> 02:28:08,100 But again, Derrick Derrick Henry, you know, as made faders 2852 02:28:08,100 --> 02:28:11,200 pay for three years in a row. So, if you tell me, he has 18 2853 02:28:11,200 --> 02:28:13,900 points per game again this year. Like I'm not going to call you 2854 02:28:13,900 --> 02:28:17,700 crazy, but he's been the guy that I'm just less excited about 2855 02:28:17,700 --> 02:28:21,600 because of age and offensive situation compared to other 2856 02:28:21,600 --> 02:28:23,100 guys. Yeah, me too. 2857 02:28:23,400 --> 02:28:24,400 And you'll see. Him there. 2858 02:28:24,700 --> 02:28:26,600 He's a guy wish. I could take him like the fourth 2859 02:28:26,600 --> 02:28:28,300 or something where it was all upside. 2860 02:28:28,300 --> 02:28:32,400 But you know, it is. It's just, I don't know. 2861 02:28:32,600 --> 02:28:35,100 I struggle with it. He's 29 years old. 2862 02:28:35,500 --> 02:28:39,700 Like it's crazy, it's crazy. Yeah, it's so old for running 2863 02:28:39,700 --> 02:28:42,700 back. But it is really old. 2864 02:28:43,500 --> 02:28:46,200 He's a he's a unit. He's just such a unicorn though. 2865 02:28:46,200 --> 02:28:50,000 He is ideas and I think that like there is something to the 2866 02:28:50,000 --> 02:28:54,200 fact that he wasn't, so he wasn't a work. 2867 02:28:54,200 --> 02:28:55,800 Horse is first couple years in the league. 2868 02:28:55,800 --> 02:28:58,600 I know they had doing weird things with like Dion Lewis 2869 02:28:58,900 --> 02:29:02,200 splitting touches with them, was the Workhorse at Alabama. 2870 02:29:02,200 --> 02:29:05,600 I don't think he was there. No, he wasn't. 2871 02:29:05,800 --> 02:29:08,200 Yeah, there's a bunch of dudes. There's like Ike. 2872 02:29:08,500 --> 02:29:10,900 And again, I think this type of stuff has been like, Like 2873 02:29:11,100 --> 02:29:14,100 statistically on the average like disproven that like age is 2874 02:29:14,100 --> 02:29:16,000 more important than like number of touches. 2875 02:29:16,000 --> 02:29:19,900 But like mad I kind of by that just the fact that he's so 2876 02:29:19,900 --> 02:29:23,700 fucking big and it has like never gotten hurt in his career 2877 02:29:23,700 --> 02:29:27,700 besides the foot injury like any doesn't have that many Travelers 2878 02:29:27,700 --> 02:29:33,500 tires like yeah I don't know, I guess I'm just like at the like 2879 02:29:34,000 --> 02:29:36,700 it's kind of the same bed as last year if like if we know 2880 02:29:36,700 --> 02:29:38,500 Tannehill is back. It's kind of the same bed as 2881 02:29:38,508 --> 02:29:40,600 last year and we're getting like the to around discount. 2882 02:29:40,900 --> 02:29:43,000 I think it's a, I mean two different better than last year 2883 02:29:43,000 --> 02:29:44,500 because he's gonna Tails getting. 2884 02:29:44,500 --> 02:29:46,600 Benched we all know. Tina was getting Dana's. 2885 02:29:46,600 --> 02:29:48,600 Getting traded retaining those getting benched and now you got 2886 02:29:48,600 --> 02:29:50,200 will love this guy in the playoffs. 2887 02:29:50,200 --> 02:29:52,300 You don't want will of us is running back in the playoffs, 2888 02:29:53,800 --> 02:29:56,000 I'd guess. But like, so. 2889 02:29:56,100 --> 02:29:58,600 Guess what you saying? No, no. 2890 02:29:58,600 --> 02:30:02,800 I the last part of your ear when I agree with the first part, is 2891 02:30:02,800 --> 02:30:05,600 the crazy that the Titans are in the playoff race with the Texans 2892 02:30:05,600 --> 02:30:07,800 in the Colts in their division. I guess that's true. 2893 02:30:08,000 --> 02:30:11,600 Ryan Tannehill is playing well. Like I don't know if variables 2894 02:30:11,600 --> 02:30:14,400 the guy that's like looking towards the future and saying, 2895 02:30:14,400 --> 02:30:17,400 we gotta play Love is so I don't know. 2896 02:30:17,400 --> 02:30:21,900 There's certainly like downside risk variables there with Henry 2897 02:30:21,900 --> 02:30:24,800 which is again, I'm not taking as much as other guys but like 2898 02:30:24,800 --> 02:30:29,200 if he holds and like late third and I can do like wide receiver 2899 02:30:29,200 --> 02:30:31,500 wide receiver running back starts with him. 2900 02:30:31,600 --> 02:30:33,500 I'll probably I'll probably do that a little bit. 2901 02:30:35,400 --> 02:30:39,700 All right I mean yeah. I could see it. 2902 02:30:39,700 --> 02:30:42,600 I could see it for sure. I think I must have taken some. 2903 02:30:42,800 --> 02:30:44,600 I mean, the third round is not where you're used to seeing 2904 02:30:44,600 --> 02:30:48,300 Henry go. Yeah, well, you had to me like 2905 02:30:48,300 --> 02:30:54,800 Pollard briefs from Andre Jacobs are kind of the guys chub. 2906 02:30:54,800 --> 02:30:58,100 I like, I like, I like job. Yeah. 2907 02:30:58,600 --> 02:31:01,300 I mean he's getting up there in age a little bit, and he's 2908 02:31:01,300 --> 02:31:04,200 always been a to down guy, but it's pretty easy to imagine how 2909 02:31:04,900 --> 02:31:07,600 Kareem hunt goes, and they just like, they're like using him a 2910 02:31:07,600 --> 02:31:11,400 little bit more. And do they have to be good this 2911 02:31:11,400 --> 02:31:13,100 year? They have to be good. 2912 02:31:13,200 --> 02:31:15,000 Yeah otherwise she fancies getting fired. 2913 02:31:15,000 --> 02:31:18,400 So, you know, previous like Jacob Sanderson has made an 2914 02:31:18,400 --> 02:31:22,000 interesting point that like, they probably view chub is like 2915 02:31:22,700 --> 02:31:26,200 having this massive advantage on in rushing situations and not 2916 02:31:26,200 --> 02:31:29,400 really adding anything in passing out situations. 2917 02:31:29,400 --> 02:31:31,900 Even if he's not bad, it's just like why waste this guy? 2918 02:31:32,200 --> 02:31:36,000 Well, one reason is just like because, you know, they might 2919 02:31:36,000 --> 02:31:37,800 get fired. If they don't, if they don't win 2920 02:31:37,800 --> 02:31:39,800 games this year, You're so like maybe they just leave. 2921 02:31:40,700 --> 02:31:43,200 So yeah. Another thing is like, the 2922 02:31:43,200 --> 02:31:46,600 receiving projection for chub, like that's an upside case you 2923 02:31:46,600 --> 02:31:48,300 can make. But like if you just does what 2924 02:31:48,300 --> 02:31:51,200 he's done in the past two years and it's just like an insanely 2925 02:31:51,200 --> 02:31:52,800 efficient rusher and is on offense. 2926 02:31:52,800 --> 02:31:55,000 That's going to score a lot of touchdowns like just how we talk 2927 02:31:55,000 --> 02:31:57,300 about it with Taylor, like just a really good running back. 2928 02:31:57,600 --> 02:32:02,100 Can can pay off in a PPR and you're not paying like a 12 2929 02:32:02,100 --> 02:32:06,400 price tag on chub. So, I think again like you know, 2930 02:32:06,400 --> 02:32:09,000 there are some of those Seasons where we made the Ken Road, Eric 2931 02:32:09,000 --> 02:32:11,600 Cantor is going to pass, get, like, catch passes this year and 2932 02:32:11,600 --> 02:32:13,800 that was wrong, but he still smashes ATP. 2933 02:32:13,800 --> 02:32:15,700 Right? Because like, he rushes so 2934 02:32:15,700 --> 02:32:19,300 efficiently, like you don't need, like, people are pushing 2935 02:32:19,300 --> 02:32:21,500 back into the shop. Receiving like, you don't need 2936 02:32:21,500 --> 02:32:24,400 that from to pay off as ATP. It certainly like a nice upside 2937 02:32:24,400 --> 02:32:27,700 case that I think is plausible now, but I'm not saying I'm not 2938 02:32:27,700 --> 02:32:30,300 baking that into his like median projection that, he catches 50 2939 02:32:30,300 --> 02:32:31,500 passes, no, I'm just saying that. 2940 02:32:31,500 --> 02:32:35,300 Like, you know, you take his splits there was that year I 2941 02:32:35,308 --> 02:32:39,800 think was when they had Carlos Hyde and he Got cut and haunt 2942 02:32:39,800 --> 02:32:41,300 wasn't there. It was his rookie year. 2943 02:32:41,400 --> 02:32:43,800 It was yeah, well, I thought there was some like, nigga 2944 02:32:43,800 --> 02:32:47,300 second year, maybe he had cunt know what it was is that in his 2945 02:32:47,300 --> 02:32:50,600 second year, he was getting receiving work and then hunt got 2946 02:32:50,600 --> 02:32:54,100 cut by the Chiefs and then landed on the Browns, right? 2947 02:32:54,100 --> 02:32:58,400 Isn't that what happened? And then he immediately ruined 2948 02:32:58,400 --> 02:33:01,900 chub for from then until now. And maybe he returns to that 2949 02:33:01,900 --> 02:33:04,200 other guy we should we should land a plane though. 2950 02:33:04,500 --> 02:33:06,900 She yeah, we should yeah, which is super late. 2951 02:33:08,000 --> 02:33:11,300 All Let's do, let's do our best ADP takes and get out of here. 2952 02:33:12,300 --> 02:33:15,700 All right. Well I forgot to do on so I can 2953 02:33:15,700 --> 02:33:18,800 I can come yours my rankings. That'd be probably a good. 2954 02:33:19,300 --> 02:33:22,000 Yeah, that's probably good. A good way to do it. 2955 02:33:24,700 --> 02:33:28,900 I am going to take as I scroll through. 2956 02:33:29,000 --> 02:33:36,100 They DP on Underdog. I has anyone done for net yet? 2957 02:33:36,100 --> 02:33:37,500 I don't think anyone's done for not yet. 2958 02:33:37,500 --> 02:33:39,600 Now, that's a good one. Mama didn't warn that. 2959 02:33:39,600 --> 02:33:41,600 It's just obvious. He's gonna sign somewhere. 2960 02:33:41,600 --> 02:33:43,500 We've Talked about it. We don't need to explain the 2961 02:33:43,500 --> 02:33:47,900 thesis the play, he's not done. You look at his stats last year. 2962 02:33:47,900 --> 02:33:49,900 In Tampa Bay, call them washed up. 2963 02:33:49,900 --> 02:33:52,000 Lenny, you know say that he's trash. 2964 02:33:52,000 --> 02:33:53,800 He was better than shot. Always receiving back. 2965 02:33:53,800 --> 02:33:56,100 He's really just kept going for another minute. 2966 02:33:56,500 --> 02:34:01,600 She's calm garbage. Say the Jaguars are right to cut 2967 02:34:01,600 --> 02:34:04,800 him. Yeah it's yeah. 2968 02:34:06,400 --> 02:34:10,800 Anyways he's he's better than Richard white as a receiver last 2969 02:34:10,800 --> 02:34:11,900 year. That's a fact. 2970 02:34:12,100 --> 02:34:16,000 He's a big dude. Some NFL team is gonna view him 2971 02:34:16,000 --> 02:34:18,400 as a guy who has a role in the league. 2972 02:34:18,400 --> 02:34:25,700 So I'm taking Lenny guaranteed, put it in pan, 4040, clv once he 2973 02:34:25,700 --> 02:34:28,800 signs a new Team. All right, well, I'll just ride 2974 02:34:28,800 --> 02:34:32,100 your coattails here. I'll go seek, I'll go Elliot 2975 02:34:32,200 --> 02:34:35,200 Gonna Be Rising upwards. A little not quite as cheap to 2976 02:34:35,208 --> 02:34:37,500 begin with, but he'll be moving up. 2977 02:34:37,500 --> 02:34:40,600 Once he signs in a better landing spot, the cornet. 2978 02:34:40,600 --> 02:34:41,900 And I'm going to get some exposure before. 2979 02:34:42,000 --> 02:34:45,700 That happens because I've been too much tilted 249 as we talked 2980 02:34:45,700 --> 02:34:48,800 about earlier. That's that's fair. 2981 02:34:49,200 --> 02:34:54,300 I'll mix in some Zeke to. Anyways guys, this was this is a 2982 02:34:54,308 --> 02:34:59,000 lot of fun longer show then then normal, but I think we talked 2983 02:34:59,000 --> 02:35:02,100 about a lot of good things. Again, if you're watching this, 2984 02:35:02,300 --> 02:35:06,100 this show on Wednesday nights and you're not tuning into ADP, 2985 02:35:06,100 --> 02:35:11,300 chasing, I think you're really missing out this show. 2986 02:35:11,700 --> 02:35:14,700 We're doing some other things, probably every Friday, maybe 2987 02:35:14,700 --> 02:35:16,300 every Monday. We definitely got an Edison 2988 02:35:16,300 --> 02:35:19,000 failed on our To let you guys know exactly what we're going to 2989 02:35:19,008 --> 02:35:24,500 be doing things but we'll be around this offseason and yeah 2990 02:35:24,600 --> 02:35:27,900 come come check us out. We'll have a lot of ATP. 2991 02:35:27,900 --> 02:35:32,700 ATP takes this entire summer Pat, what's going on at leg up 2992 02:35:33,600 --> 02:35:36,400 over the next couple weeks. All right, an article on Elite 2993 02:35:36,400 --> 02:35:38,700 tight end, which I think is a massive Edge in baseball 2994 02:35:38,700 --> 02:35:44,400 tournaments and just explaining why I think that kind of 2995 02:35:44,400 --> 02:35:46,300 pointing out that like, you know, Hayden wakes, done some 2996 02:35:46,300 --> 02:35:49,800 research on That it doesn't separate from the pack as well 2997 02:35:49,800 --> 02:35:53,600 as running back and wide receiver which is true but the 2998 02:35:53,600 --> 02:35:55,700 kind of just the interesting thing about tight end is that 2999 02:35:55,700 --> 02:35:59,000 like there's really only so many Spike weeks that even occur in a 3000 02:35:59,008 --> 02:36:01,400 given season. And the elites tend to capture a 3001 02:36:01,400 --> 02:36:05,100 huge share of those Spike weeks given that we're making three 3002 02:36:05,100 --> 02:36:08,400 consecutive single week bets to win this tournament. 3003 02:36:08,500 --> 02:36:12,100 So actually pretty high chance, that someone puts together a 3004 02:36:12,100 --> 02:36:16,100 stretch, you want to have that guy on your team and so yeah, 3005 02:36:16,100 --> 02:36:20,400 kind of gotten the guy. The weeds of like the fan ball 3006 02:36:20,400 --> 02:36:23,700 data that we have on Ali tight end which goes back at 2015, 3007 02:36:23,700 --> 02:36:26,600 that's PPR site but that's been really strong for really tight 3008 02:36:26,600 --> 02:36:28,400 end for years. Really tight end is absolutely 3009 02:36:28,400 --> 02:36:32,300 crushing the playoffs over the last two years and Underdog so 3010 02:36:33,300 --> 02:36:36,300 it's definitely like a strategy where we're trying to figure 3011 02:36:36,300 --> 02:36:37,500 out. We're always, you know, we don't 3012 02:36:37,500 --> 02:36:40,300 have the right answers because we have small sample sizes but 3013 02:36:40,300 --> 02:36:43,100 there's like a lot of really strong hints in the store pull 3014 02:36:43,100 --> 02:36:45,700 data that Elite tight end could be like a potentially massive 3015 02:36:45,700 --> 02:36:49,600 Edge and prices have fallen on Elite tight ends right now. 3016 02:36:49,900 --> 02:36:53,900 So it's like you don't even have to be right, you know, you can 3017 02:36:53,900 --> 02:36:57,400 use this strategy that is done really well for people and 3018 02:36:57,400 --> 02:37:00,900 you're getting it at a discount after not just Kelsey, but 3019 02:37:00,900 --> 02:37:05,200 kid'll was on numerous first-place teams last year 3020 02:37:05,200 --> 02:37:08,100 across the industry. Kelsey was on a bunch as well. 3021 02:37:08,500 --> 02:37:12,400 So kind of laid it out, it's like a 6,000 werder but if 3022 02:37:12,400 --> 02:37:15,800 you're a lead leg up subscriber, I narrate it for you so you can 3023 02:37:15,800 --> 02:37:17,300 do you can do the podcast version. 3024 02:37:17,300 --> 02:37:19,200 While you scroll, there's lots of charts, you can scroll on 3025 02:37:19,200 --> 02:37:22,200 your phone, look at the charts. And listen to me read it. 3026 02:37:22,200 --> 02:37:25,400 So I sign up for legendary upside, you can still get $30 3027 02:37:25,400 --> 02:37:28,300 off your first year, at legendary upside.com early and 3028 02:37:28,300 --> 02:37:31,100 there's still some Underdog credits right now and get a $50 3029 02:37:31,100 --> 02:37:33,400 under all credit. After you sign up, make sure to 3030 02:37:33,400 --> 02:37:37,600 fill out a form, which is on the the website. 3031 02:37:37,600 --> 02:37:40,400 You go to perk / Discord, there's a form in there, fill it 3032 02:37:40,400 --> 02:37:42,900 out and you'll get fifty dollars in your Underdog account as 3033 02:37:42,900 --> 02:37:45,200 well. Awesome stuff. 3034 02:37:45,200 --> 02:37:47,200 Yeah, that's great. Article, should definitely check 3035 02:37:47,200 --> 02:37:50,300 that out. Guys, will be back ship. 3036 02:37:50,300 --> 02:37:52,500 Chasing next Wednesday night and ATP. 3037 02:37:52,500 --> 02:37:56,700 Chasing sometime next week. Have a good night, everyone. 3038 02:37:57,100 --> 02:37:58,300 We will see you next week.