Pete is out tonight. Gretch is out tonight but we are
still doing ship chasing except it's an ATP ATP.
Chasing ship chasing, take over. Let's do it.
Higher. Homo Anita hand job.
Fix your side with your mom are helpful play Chase.
I broke my brain that broke my brain.
ATP chasing should chasing take over.
Welcome guys. Sam.
I'm gonna that's it. I'm done hosting.
I'm gonna throw it over to. You are a tea time.
Chasing host, and that's a, let's do it.
It's a beautiful intro. Yeah, we're chasing.
We're chasing so many things. It's kind of hard to keep track
at this point, I'm statues things.
ATP chasing chasing crane. I don't even know what's going
on, but yeah, we're here tonight, we're taking over for
Pete, you know, the The main requirements of being a host on
ship chasing are being a white guy with a blond slightly
receding hairline. And, you know, I'm taking over
taking over p and that's might be too full.
Did you Sam? Yeah, the mustache.
I don't know. I don't know how that fits into
the criteria. I'll check with peed on that.
But yeah. Doing my do my best feet
impression. I'll try my best.
No one's. No one's as good as Pete.
But yeah. Well, have some fun here.
Tonight, I guess a quick intro to people who maybe are regular
ship chasing guys but aren't aware of ATP.
Chasing. The three of us have been doing
a weekly show Mostly on Fridays throughout the offseason and we
basically discussed ADP values, track the market movement.
So that's the overall outline of the show tonight.
But yeah, before we get into that Pat Davis, how are you are
you Wednesday nights going Davis, you're able to Get get a
clearance from from the wife for tonight, or what was, what was
that process? Like, I just don't want to stay
up this late, bro. Like, we're gonna be on this.
We're going to be a dude, I go to the gym at 5:00 in the
morning. Like I'm we're I'm, this is
you're throwing. You're throwing my whole week
off here, dude. Thank you for coming.
Had to do it. I think a good tagline 480p
chasing is ship chasing if the hosts were all virgins, right?
Because it's all, it's all, it's all it was It's all, it's all
ATP. It's all it's all database.
We are graphs and we got charts. It's a teepee.
Chasing is the the ship chasing variant for people who comb
through their team's yesterday, trying to figure out which teams
they already had Bangles Chiefs correlated.
Yeah. ATP chasing is for when you
watch chip chasing you go, these guys are just football guys.
That's hilarious. How many how many puppies have
All done. Are we all ready?
Crane? It's May 10th or you already
sick a drafting. I'm not sick of drafting Davis.
I was not able to draft very much over like the last 10 days
because I, you know, the NFL draft getting the rankings up on
the site, get in the rankings, kind of like dialed in.
Watch this Underdog promo, dealing with, you know, with all
the kind of logistical admin stuff there, blah, blah, blah.
And then I was like, I don't have any time to get my the
writing done that I want to get done.
I had this article came out this morning on Elite tight end.
That took me like a fair amount of time to write also because I
didn't plan to write it, I was trying to write a quarterback
article and it morphed into something else.
It says that's, that's how I do things.
So finally got an article out on the site, first one, a little
while and I drafted all afternoon, I went out in the
beautiful sun, I was doing three puppies at once.
I came back in, just dripping a puppy as it did, some house
stuff, I finished up a puppy seconds before the show went
live. I must have done a dozen
puppies. Today, it was a delight.
It's already. This is an I'm already.
I'm already mad about people taking the quarterback when I
need them. You know, it happened to me, I
was in I was in Chicago this weekend and we were leaving.
I'm sitting there getting ready to we actually took the train
and I'm sitting there getting ready to go just knocking.
Knocking a puppy out and I start Chase Pollard T and the pic
right after I took tea, someone took Borough and I'm just like
Like, what are we doing here, man?
And what are we doing here? Yeah.
What do you think May 5th? And I'm losing my mind.
What's the plan for that drafter?
Like herb Smith and Andre? Yeah, it's know, obviously, you
gotta take you got to take you at the.
So you have to take mix and and because, you know, be randomly
Binks the 5 touchdown game and week 17 and you got a big Boyd
and you got to take or Smith. Junior.
So Pete Pete stared a story today.
I've been seeing this stream but this A stream.
So, the chat may already have seen this, but he was saying
that on stream, someone Snipes him on Tyler Conklin.
When is Paul? Yeah, 20 picks ahead of ATP.
He had Rogers, I assume. And the guy who's sniped, him,
took him because he had Justin Herbert and they play the NFC
East. So he knew our the AFC East -
Sophia He knew there's not even a, there's a chance to play in
week, 3 Christmas. Small cancers might be a week
17. Yeah, it was Paul the you guys
got to watch the stream because Pete has an all-time meltdown
and lashes out at Paul, who's a great member of the Discord.
Like I think he's shipped a bunch of.
Yeah, that's Paul stuff really smart guy, but it was the
biggest like may your brain is broken from thinking about week.
17 way too much moaning. Anything that didn't get
mentioned on stream and I was watching, is this Choice was
Michael Mayer. He was the highest I done by ATP
and the Raiders and the charges are in the same division, right?
I'm I'm not wrong about that. Literally certainly a decent
chance because we know the Chiefs are playing The Bangles a
certain chance you would say yes with that schedule thing.
So we love you Paul but Your brain is probably older up and I
mean I think all of our brains are irrevocably broken at this
point honestly. Like it's just there's no,
there's no going back. Well, should we talk about the
Chiefs in the Bangles real quick because we want to talk about
GDP ships? I mean, that was, that was like
my first inkling. They like what we have.
So far ahead of ATP. Did tributaries.
Tony go today, like 1015 picks. Oh God.
I, you know what? I didn't even see his name.
He must have been going so early.
So I same thing happened to me. I Yeah, I had a two times.
I had him starred. Ready to pick him and he was
gone. Wow.
But it is kind of wild because like just that one game being
released It's like already shaken up ATP.
So, you know, when we when we get the others 16 or whatever,
you know, yeah. 15 my biggest reaction from it was like, I've
been playing the cubies as if I'm homes, is got a fall man?
But he's not falling past the chased Raptor at the the two
three turn. Like, I don't, if people are
thinking about week 17 as much has, I'm thinking they are, I
don't think Mahomes ATP can really fall much now with with
Chase. Is there sort of as the stopgap
for teams, doing that correlation.
So, you know, maybe he's still can fall into the mid third,
like, I originally thought, but I think really like it's going
to be interesting. Once all these schedules, come
out to really see how like that type of impact can sort of, Sapa
players ADP slide or arise them up so, well, keep in mind that
the, by the time people who are not really drafting on, you
know, Twitter memes, week, 17 memes, come into the pool, the
BP is going to be so baked, you know.
Yeah. Like by the time August gets
here, these are these are going to be set in stone.
That is a powerful force of inertia to try and move.
Hmm. I guess although it doesn't it
wouldn't it kick out some of the old stuff like, isn't it
rolling? No.
No, I'm not saying I'm not saying the ADP in and of itself
is, oh, you're just saying this - also anchored to it.
People are by yeah. But we're just gonna be like,
oh, I take this guy at this pick every single time.
I know. Like, by the time, I Five picks
into a draft. I can basically fill the rest of
it out, I can color by numbers by that's that's so true.
I also have started to wonder if the quarterbacks won't stick
kind of where they're at or roughly.
Maybe I maybe they'll follow the two three turn, but stay there.
Yeah, we wonderful. Get we might as well get into it
now. Yeah.
Let's pull it up.
So we did this exercise. We're going to start talking
about it so let's pull it up before.
Before I show the chart, I want to like anchor people.
And what we tried to do here, These are not like we did not
try to rank players 1 through 36, Pat Davis, and I tried to
give our best estimate of where we think the best ball Market is
going to be on rounds 1 through 3 in September when best Molina
closes. So, again, not our rankings.
This is like probably obviously biased by what we think and what
our rankings are but more. So this is what we think is
going to happen. Once all the Casual drafters
enter the pool. Once we get all the, you know,
August Camp storylines, what's all that stuff?
Opens your sort of the median ATP.
So I got patent Davis's ranks and I averaged it with mine and
we got this draft board here. I'd like to raise T, Higgins,
who just went 17 because it's because someone had to pair them
with Kelsey. I would, I would, I would also,
I would also like to, I would also like to do that.
Yeah. Alright, that closing line,
Auntie. Higgins is just wrong Weebly.
Yeah, this was before. Yeah, the the schedule.
Got a nice butt. I don't know, like it's a
one-day thing, it's a one-day thing.
I just I just want to start this discussion here, you guys don't
get fantasy football at all. If you think Junior Gibbs is not
going to go in the second round, like there's a real chance like
it's just the way Fantasy Football goes, dude.
Hmm, I don't know. Bruce Hall was going in like the
fourth and fifth round last year he played for the Jets.
Everyone thought they were a joke, everyone thought they were
going to stink, Everyone likes the Lions.
Everyone like the Lions, but no one thinks Gibbs is like their
early down running back. Yeah, let's go to the Gibbs.
I want to like set the scene a little bit before we get to
gives I think. Like let's talk about this board
from a macro level are sort of consensus agreement like we have
a lot of individual disagreements but our consensus
agreement. Largely was there's a handful of
running backs going at the two three turn that are under priced
or maybe the third round and that's Josh Jacobs briefs all
Tony Pollard. Ramon Dre we Like on average had
those guys jumping up, five, six, seven spots, and that's
sort of what I've been arguing this whole time.
My personal rankings. I also think those guys are
undervalued, but even if you, you know, are someone who
doesn't think those guys are undervalued, it difference
between thinking, they're undervalued in that.
They're going to rise in price though, exactly the same things.
Exactly. I'm I'm, I am but I know those
like, I think so. Yeah, I'm a little bit of both
but I think And there is kind of this.
I'm already pushing back on one of the conclusions, so, keep
going. Okay, I'm just saying Pat the
point I'm trying to make is even if you are someone who says,
like, I'm guessing, this is kind of where you're coming from.
You're saying, I think they'll rise in price.
I don't really think they're necessarily massively
undervalued. I still think that means, If
you're sort of taking a portfolio based approach to
drafting, you should be getting your wide receiver running back
running back starts in now, because you're not going to be
able to get The Justin Jefferson Nick Chubb.
Tony Pollard start in August, you're not gonna be able to get
the Jamar chase. You know Josh Jacobs from Andre
start in August so if you're trying to take a diversified
portfolio and you just want a little bit of those types of
teams like I don't see any argument for not going pretty
heavy on that. Now assuming you're taking you
know you're drafting 25 teams or so in in May June.
So that's why argument so for this exercise I don't know if
you guys have had this but just just running back.
Get so full of guys I absolutely do not want to click on and I am
going to assume that other people are going to feel the
same way which is over time going to lead to the running
backs. The people do feel comfortable
clicking on rising up the bullet.
What back part of the draft. Are you talking about?
So I'm talking about the Aaron Jones.
Dalvin cook. Yeah, Joe Mixon just like you
just do not want to be like it's just not for took Mixon today.
This is kind of outside the scope but I took mixing And I
have to say, mixing is actually kind of nice to have drafted
because then you go. Are you either have like a guy
who's like a third round? They just probably if he's the
guy, there's probably about the same values.
ET are on a different team or different.
But let's say he's not, let's say he's on the Bengals and he's
the guy, you're not a perfect pick is probably the third or
fourth round value. Like, I think the fact that they
like, don't like him, and we're playing some eyes appear on
ahead of him at times was, you know, as a concern, but I don't
think he's like dust. And he's on the Bangles pesos.
ATP is not representative of what his expected production is.
It's binary. Yeah, it's based on the cloud
hanging over him. So then you go.
Okay, well, if I have him and in this case, I forget which early
running back, I had him with might have been Bruce Hall,
might have been, you know, reminder a something like that.
So I'm like, I've got I've got like two legit.
Like, I want running back running back almost so that
clay, then I built the rest of the team like running back
running back. So I'll give Vile give mixing a
little love their because it's like either the team's dead or
you can build a pretty unique structure that gives him like
basically third-round draft capital.
I like that. That makes sense.
Cool. Well let's get into some of our
disagree. I guess like the other macro
thing I'll point out here is we are consensus is we don't have
that second round group of quarterbacks really sliding.
I think maybe a couple spots where there's yeah.
Josh Allen is the one that. So this is my take on the
quarterbacks and this is supermicro.
Josh Allen has the highest potential to slide because he
Doesn't have the stacking partner stopping and gas
lighting. Jalen hurd's has both AJ Brown
and devaugntah and both sides of the draft board.
It's going to be really fucking hard for Jalen hurd's to slide.
Now Mahomes has Kelsey on one side and Jamar chasing T Higgins
and the other for the the bring back sacks, he's not going to
slide. I think if one guy does slide,
it's if the Bills play the Patriots and week 17, and Josh
Alan, maybe slides closer to that third rounds to Van Dyck.
You see that group? That's like possible.
That's not because I think hurts and homes are better than Alan.
Just purely like a correlational like line of these guys up take,
so that that's where the quarterback stand.
But let's talk. Quarterbacks first Like Pat, do
you think we got it right here with our average takes like do
you feel actually now that these guys aren't going to slide?
I know like previously you said you think these guys might slide
to the third round or something? Yeah, I think one thing I try to
keep in mind is like what I want to have happen.
Versus what I'm predicting will happen and I want these
quarterbacks to slide and I was like starting to get like really
like take lock that they would slide and I just like They're
probably not going to slide like I want it too much.
So my thing and I'm going to be putting some out on legendary
upside about kind of an idea of how to go in and Target these
quarterbacks at the high end, you know kind of trying to pair
some structures with these Elite.
Quarterbacks that might make it a little bit more unique a
little bit more palatable to go get these guys at prices if
they're kind of you're having sticker shock the same way I am
but Yeah, I think I think we're going to have to probably
proceed, like they're not going to slide a ton.
I guess I could see, I could see I could see my home's.
Going at the two three turn. And that inertia is so hard to
do. Because you know that's so many
drafts wear the clothes to dry after the Kelsey drafters not
passing. Yeah.
So it's almost like how far it is a landslide because if Alan
slides down into the Third And then, like, the hurts drafted,
the agent Brown drafters not gonna want to take hurts in the
second. The mid s knowing the Alan's
going, the third. So then he starts to pass and
then then maybe, you know, so everyone starts to come down a
little bit but I'm almost seeing the opposite where Lamar Jackson
is coming up closer to the two three turn.
So it's almost like someone's coming up to meet these guys as
opposed to, they're going down to me because people are going
to want to take. If the people are people might
start taking them are over Josh Allen so they can double tap
Lamar. RN Andrews.
I did that today in a pub me because I was like, this isn't
going to change in the next whatever.
So I might as well, I took Andrews first because I was like
I'd rather have I'd rather just grabbing Andrews but then Lamar
I got him and I think it was like CMC that's actually pretty
fun. I didn't I had to pound wide
receivers for the next few rounds but I could also see
Fields falling tube just because I think we're all sort of an
agreement that the quarterback ATP just doesn't just doesn't
jive right for whatever reason, just feels Is kind of wrong and
Fields, doesn't have the natural, stacking partner there.
Yeah. And I could see more, I could
see more sliding to the start of the fifth.
I think there's a lot of fun from world will fall, when
projected a flood from you TR and those type of guys are more.
So he falls to the fifth that I Can See Fields falling to the
late 4th, I can see that it's hard.
It's just so much harder with. I mean we talk about Alan
falling, but again like I'd say the absolute floor that these
guys fall is the mid third, right?
Like I think it's Spalding fall farther than I agree. - I agree
Alan goes at 38 to pair with digs.
I think that's his floor. The homes goes at 37 to pair
with. Kelsey, that's his floor hurts
goes at 3:10 to pair with brown floor.
Like, no chance that AJ Brown drafters Paso.
No one's no. One's at the three, four, turn
going. I'll push and see if I get hurt.
Yeah, the back like now you just grab hurts.
No tarimov. Yeah.
So that's the thing, it's like if we're talking about like, a
maximum full round like fall, like sure, Sure, I'm with you,
Pat, I'm rooting for these guys to fall, like I would love to be
able to take Pollard Ramon. Dre briefs over these guys and
still get them in the mid third, probably probably not going to
happen, even if it does. It's not going to be some kind
of like, massive, massive fall. So like I'm starting to I'm
starting to like, think about, like, it sounds like you're
doing with write an article like I'm starting to think about.
Okay, I can't tell myself this story of fit, they're gonna fall
later in the summer, I'll get them then like I've kind of been
lying to myself with that. So I gotta start thinking about
how I'm actually going to These guys, which I don't, I honestly
don't have fully figured out yet, but certainly something I'm
thinking about. I think they might, they might
fit better with zero running back starts.
Then the, I mean, they certainly would fit with any start.
But like, what I was thinking, is the same way.
Like I thought running back running back starts fit, nicely
with three wide receiver. Sorry, three quarterback bills.
Last year, the reason I thought that is because I was noticing
that if you're going to go three quarterback, you don't want to
Push it too far. You still want to get guys?
Got a little bit of upside. They can help you in the
playoffs and everything. So if you're going running back
running back, then you don't need to worry about running back
in that kind of classic 0 running back range.
As much. If you grab one guy, you don't
need to grab a, you know, you can grab one and be done.
So those strategies kind of paired nicely.
And I think the same things happening here in the reverse
where if you grab an elite quarterback.
Then you can punt quarterback too.
Like you can like if you have like hurts, you could like, do a
Nico Collins Schultz, Stroud thing, you know, a Mingo Bryce
young, like you just need a guys gonna, like fill in for a couple
weeks here and there. Yeah, cover your bye week.
You've already made the bet that hurts.
It, the guys who's going to win, you the money in the playoffs.
And so punting that pick out of that, like kind of juicier
running back range. Actually think it sets you up
nice really nicely for 40 running back.
So it's like one of us. I'm going to be going to be
writing up. Then make sense, let's get back
to it. Like some of our our
disagreements here and I'll quickly read off like for the
audio listeners. I promised peed on service you
guys. The biggest closing line values
we're seeing in terms of our predicted a DP versus now is
Josh Jacobs res Hall. Tony Pollard, mm Gibbs from
Andre Mark Andrews so Kwan and bees.
Jean. So all running backs, Mark
Andrews, our biggest closing line losses that were predicting
Metcalf, a law of a Derrick Henry Josh Allen, Jalen waddle,
Jalen hurts, T Higgins. So just wanted to give that
quickly Dottie listeners. Let's get into our
disagreements. We started with Gibbs Davis and
want to cut you off there. What's your case for?
You have Gibbs as the highest of the three of us at ABC 7?
What's this is? This is just classic fantasy
football. This is just I've seen this
story a million times. The rookie.
He's gonna look sick and training camp.
The coaches are going to love him.
It's just and people, love rookies.
People, love past catching running backs, like all this
stuff. Everyone's going to bring up the
the high-value touches that DeAndre Swift got and they're
going to be like what if the coach is like Jameer Gibbs and
he's in a 60/40 instead of a 40 60 and it just I can I close my
eyes and seen it all play out so perfectly and Mom.
Gummer. He's a DP will fall a little
bit, gives his will rise a little bit.
Also think goff's ATP will correspondingly go up.
I just think there's just going to be Lions Pub like if they're
just going to be one of those teams this offseason that gets
the pub, I can see that. Yeah it just it just feels it
feels like we already have like wrote of his articles about like
Junior Gibbs is the highest upside player at every Fantasy
Draft. Like it just it it is what it
is. I do not want to get the devil's
advocate. Like Davis making good points
and maybe suede you a little bit, but you want to give the
fog on Gibbs. Little not not all the
Industries on board and I think they have legitimate push back,
you know. And even I'm like a big Gibbs
guy for dynasty, but I've been saying the whole time, like,
hey, if I take Gibbs I'm almost treating it.
Like, he's my like, sixth-round pick.
Like I like flip picks and I'm like, I'm trying, I'm trying to
go get like a Brian Robinson or someone who's like super boring
that's just going to Help. Get me points at running back
because I've taken like a flyer pick in the third round, because
I don't think gives is going to add much early in the season.
He's 199 pounds. He's going to be playing like
the Swift role. We know they are going to be
running a committee like you're not going to nor should they
really hand? This guy.
The job as a rookie and undersized guy, kind of more of
a passing down guy. I think down the line, he could
be a fantasy Superstar and potentially by the end of this
season, but I do think that people are going to be Pointing
out all along the way in terms of his rise like Hey we're not
projecting him to play more than 50% of the snaps and he's 199
pounds. What's he's going on between the
tackle? Yeah, he's not going to get goal
line, such as Montgomery's there.
Who does everything Montgomery has sighs.
He's shown, he can play in all facets of the game.
They paid him a lot of money that counter narrative is going
to exist. They paid him a lot of money and
then they took Gibbs 12th overall.
Like, I mean, look, I'm not drafting a lot of Dave
Montgomery. I'm just saying, I think I am.
Just it's going to be one of the most phenomenal things when I
whoever the Lions play week, one when David Montgomery gets 21
carries for 83 yards and a one-yard touchdown and you here
Gibbs has three carries for 18 yards in one catch for 15 yards
like pydev. I am their minds, here's what
I'll say, you know, listen David Montgomery people out there,
wrote a pat famously, a David Montgomery Guy, where I
appreciate the pushback that you're going to do in draft
season but don't Victory lap Montgomery.
After week one, you're gonna give it But a little more time.
Yeah, yeah. Well, I think actually the best
King King coldly cochlea robbed in the chat that this is.
This is probably the best answer here.
I don't think drafter, I don't think DraftKings is gonna make
you pay a higher price for getting cheaper.
He'll be probably be cheaper because all the sickos are on
Underdog. Even though it's happy PR if
Gibbs hits in a big way, the leverage he's gonna provide you
is going to be much bigger and a full PPR site than happy PR
sites, so I think honestly like it sounds Good cop out, but I
think this is like close to the optimal way to play it.
Like, go to drafters, go to DK. Get that third round, fourth
round Gibbs, probably fade them a little bit and Underdog.
I think that's going to be my Approach.
I guess we're Davis is going I think I will right now.
I'm still taking them. I got three.
Four, I'm not even trying to make 36.
Yeah, I'm not even saying he should be ranked there.
I just know fantasy football, drafters sure they can't help
themselves. Yeah, I do think he will get
like, you're already seeing a little bit Davis.
You're right then. At some point this summer, he's
going to Surge to like, 28, people are going to be like what
the fuck's going on and then I think will probably fall back
down, but none of that's gonna happen.
Meme Sky more to the eighth round and we're saying, Jameer
Gibbs can't be a late second round pick.
Like, I don't believe it if it's not, the Lions weren't so nuts,
and he went to the chief, so then I would believe it, but
alone, and when he'd be a first-round pick, right?
If they take, if they give you a first round, pick Woody.
Jonathan Taylor. Jonathan Taylor on the Colts are
Jameer Gibbs on the Chiefs, ha ha.
That's it gives yeah, actually not that hard because they did.
Yeah, fuck all your right. But let's talk.
Let's move on to Derek Henry. Davis didn't even rank.
Derrick, Henry in the top three rounds, which I thought it was
some kind of bit. It's not a bit.
I actually thought about this long and hard.
Okay, let's let's here because I Of him at 26.
Pat hasn't 30? I think is atp's like 28.
So Pat and I would have had him. Like not really moving at all
Davis. You're saying he slides a bunch.
Let's, let's hear the. So I think there are there are a
couple different things. Obviously, I think the first one
is, we're all sort of anticipating a Tannehill trade
at some point. Yeah, yeah, of course to some
degree that's going to immediately.
Basically make the Titans the worst offense in the AFC like
whoever's doing projections. They're going to have a very
hard time with the trail and Burks chigga.
We'll leave us offense, getting them to any sort of reasonable
degree of offensive, success. Also, think there's a nonzero
chance he gets traded, right? I mean, there's just no point to
what they're doing and I can't really find a landing spot where
he would go, and he would get this same sort of inhuman
workload. He's gotten there.
And then the other thing is and I don't know who this is going
to be, there's going to be a couple running backs, who really
end up Rising. I think the best candidate is
probably Breeze Hall where Are we get an early report?
No, brace feeling. Good, feeling, great.
He goes up. No, I that's not reflected in my
ranks because I think the more likely thing is the other way.
I think we get bad injury news on Bruce Hall before we get
good. Let's but I just I'm just saying
and or Kenneth Walker, right? Kenneth Walker.
Maybe they maybe charbonnet comes in a camp and Pete
Carroll's. Like, you know, we're starting
to get who is the, who is the running back for the Titans who
they took really early, and then literally never played him.
Darren Evans. No, no, this is a long time ago.
This is I love this guy. This window.
No, this is like 20 2015 Titans. This is p. 0 0.
Bishop Sankey. Bishop Sankey.
Yes. Right so, so charbonnet comes in
and they're like, this guy can't play right then.
Kenneth Walker goes back up to running back ten, I think Ramon
Dre, right? If we get to August 1st, and the
Patriots have been signed anyone else and it's Ramon Ray
Stevenson Pierre, strong. And Harris and James Robinson, I
think we see him rise. What if Joe Mixon?
No cut? No suspension?
No arrests, right. I just think there are a lot of
different like running backs of question marks who could go up.
I don't know who it's gonna be and I don't see any way the
market views, Henry, more favorably.
Right. I don't see any scenario where
the market looks at his price right now and goes, that's too
low. I think I kind of get what
you're saying, but I like that. Let me let me just give Like the
donkey Bray and like box score Checker, take on Derrick Henry,
Henry October last two seasons half PPR points for game
twenty-three and twenty. Like you literally has a ceiling
that other running backs, like can't touch and happy if you are
besides like McCaffrey the song nine years old though, he's 29
August and it's crumbling. I'm not saying that like I hear
that Pat but like are people taking debose 140 points last
year over dere? Henry's like three hunt.
Like I just I can't how many piss boys we can recruit.
Yeah I just don't see that. I don't see him falling that
far. I do think that you know my rank
yet 26 is maybe a little ambitious.
I was pricing in just like you know nothing changes for the
Titans same situation basically. As last two years he's not
really showing signs of slowing down.
Is it 18 points per game last year?
How could they are 20? 22 and then 18 and he's 29 years
old, 20, 22, and 18. Wait, what did I say?
I thought you said he had 20 last year.
Okay. Anyway anyways yeah something
about it. Tarek tarek, Brian jr.
Made a great point and the chat, if they play Houston and week 17
invalidated he'll be he'll be right back up.
Know like everyone's looking at that sweet face Houston and week
17. I'll be drafted in the second
round. Yeah.
Yeah anyway, I'm still seeing the issue anyways.
Not to get hug. Not to get hung up on the 20.3.
I'm surprised you that the Brock.
I'm surprised you didn't put Brock / D at 36 and I thought
about it. Oh no Pat, you're right, you're
right. Pat.
I was wrong on that. I think I was looking at PPR
points per game anyways. Yeah, I still think that like, I
mean, the PPR point though, is I think one thing that's a little
bit tougher With him to is that they just dropped Itachi Spears
who like literally doesn't have an ACL, but they but they are
playing, he's playing through it.
Like he's, he doesn't. He's was like a full participant
and everything. Jay's I didn't have
denominational cartilage. I don't think.
I thought he had his ACL but like Spears of passing down back
and, and pretty talented receiver.
So the whole like this offense is totally fizzling out like the
the plan is no longer working anymore thing.
I mean, One thing that saved Henry last year was that they
actually threw to him a little bit.
He had 41 car gets last year. That was a career-high. 33.
Receptions was a career. I buy like a billion.
Yeah. I like a billion.
Yeah yeah. He it was like it was almost
twice what he had the previous season but I don't I just like
love this. If this is the guy there, if the
lovest is the guy they're starting like this offense is
just going to be it's going to be so bad like it's going to be
really really bad. Yeah.
I still like I think you guys will make you bad points.
Again, my rankings. I probably have him at 30 or
something close to that. I just I still see a lot of.
Yeah, Sam you and I were close right.
You have 26, I had 30. Yeah, yeah.
And again, that's my prediction, like my ranking probably would
be like 30, 29, something like that.
I don't know, man. People people are gonna love.
Derrick Henry. I think like, him sliding past.
I'm probably wrong. I'm probably wrong.
Just the Derrick Henry people, they're just they are who they
are and they have no interest in teaching, David kitchens like
three drafts per year You're gonna problem up a lot too, when
you take some 101, so you gotta find your that in.
He's such a meme. Like players that are memes are
harder to see big vacillations on because people just generate
such a strong feeling about drafting them and I should have
taken that into more consideration.
The sexy. It is tough though because it's
like, you know. Okay.
Am I going to take Henry or Jimmy or gives?
If I'm a Henry drafted? That's a no brainer.
I'm taking Henry Henry and Travis etn, same thing, same
thing. What?
Andre Josh Jacobs, I could see Henry's Raptors.
I could see Henry drafters being more into those guys.
Yeah. Yeah, those are real running
backs like those our Workhorse running backs.
That's like an appealing archetype really for everybody.
But I think for a Henry type drafter as well.
So we're like Nick Chubb. If you know are you gonna I
mean? And the guy he's probably taking
Nick Chubb and then grabbing Derrick Henry and the third like
this is a start, you're going to see Travis Kelce Nick Chubb,
Derrick Henry. Like that's gonna be a star.
McCarty one gets a Hardy won. The the biggest thing that I
actually thought I had different than you guys.
In terms of what it would do to draft structure, was I had
Eckler all the way down at 17 or Pollard's going.
Yeah, that was interesting that highest so reason being the
Chargers are simply signing another running back, right?
Yeah. They just edits I you know, God
help me. I think it's probably going to
be Zeke at this point. You know, it could be anybody,
dude. It could be for net, it could be
Kareem hunt, it could be anybody, but it's going to be
telegraphing that they're not building the entire plane out of
a four point eight eight dot like they're just they're just
going to say Austin hecklers not catching 100 passes in the
middle of a contract dispute, it's not happening.
So yeah, I think they probably are signing someone.
Your kind of our I know your ex Cowboys at this point but like
you and that you would know better than anybody.
What's Kellen Moore and Zeke This relationship like are they
is that going to help her? It sounds it sounds like there
was it was never acrimonious between those two guys.
Okay? But you do have to think Kellen
Moore was probably the one guy in the coaching room being.
Like, we got to play Pollard more because even the running
back coach, even the running back coach, who works with these
guys every day and is acutely aware of what they can.
And can't do was like Pollard can't play more than 30 snaps
and again, or he'll break, you know.
Really Jerry, you know you like Old Yeller and Zeke was the
hardest thing he ever had. You snap he's he'll never
recover don't ever ever get over it.
Yeah. It's he's gonna wish you had
more time with Zeke. That's but so these go.
What would I guess my question do you guys would be is what is
the best case resolution to this Austin Eckler?
Contract thing because he himself in his own words he said
playing for the Chargers to season is the worst case
outcome. It's the worst thing that could
happen. In him as a football player I
think status quo is his best bet at this point, to be honest, I
don't see, like, I guess you can dream and make up some scenario
where the Vikings cut, Dalvin, cook, and trade, Frost neck,
like sure. There's some like fantasies that
I tell you that that aren't may be entirely implausible, but the
most realistic best outcome for him, I think are just status
quo. You know, for net signs with the
The Bangles like cream, haunt signs with the Vikings or
whatever and It's just a cooler and, you know, ya around tree
and you know, whoever else is in there and we have the chat, we
have the chat saying the Chargers really like Joshua
Kelly to which I would respond. No one really likes, Joshua
Kelly Joshua, Kelly's. Oh, that's right.
They drafted two running backs after Joshua Kelly and
desperately tried to replace them.
I love them so much every day. He was the biggest of those dust
ball running backs they tried to Draft.
He was the best of like, for, like there was like, three guys
worse than, when I forgot. Isaiah Spiller existed until
this moment, right? And what was the other guy
Dobbin Davos? Um, Larry Roundtree is there
around tree. That's I was that's where Larry
Michelle Michelle was involved. Both with pats best Ball Mania
winning team and the Los Angeles Chargers.
Last season's also you did nothing for both teams.
I am pointing like Tony Michelle I am as a, you know, free agent
pickup in the meth PC main event I gotta leave some of those
tweets - point point. I also just thought about that
having a competent wide receiver fill in for Kenan.
Allen's yearly four-week absence from the lineup that's going to
make a difference to. I think having Quinton Johnson
and said of Jalen Guyton that, that feels I think a Killers.
Yeah, I think hecklers receiving projection and potentially is
rushing, projection takes a bit of a hit this year again.
Like where I'd have Have Eckler ranks.
I think I'm kind of like, with you Davis, like, maybe 15 16,
I'm just not sure people are going to like bake all those
factors and they will if Echo if they saw him running back.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Look.
If the establish the Run rankings come out when they post
them and Austin Eckler is 17. That's like, it's, I mean, maybe
that 23 because they signed for net, you know what I mean?
People, but people are just straight up a larger portion.
Pull then you realize you're just straight-up importing
establish the Run Underdog best while Mania rankings and using
that as their guide. Yeah that's fair.
Okay. Let's talk maybe one more player
here we touched on briefs haul a little bit.
Maybe this one is a simple as like Davis had about twenty
eight me and Pat had him at Pat I'm 19 I am at 21.
I think this is a simple as like Davis.
You're assuming the median scenario is like slightly bad
news for the ACL tear Pat and I are assuming slightly good news
for the ACL tear and the story is that just kind of what we're
thinking here. I just bet against injury guys.
That's like my it's probably like my number one thing in
fantasy football. Honestly.
I mean, it's fair. I just think briefs.
Okay, again, like not to get away from the exercise too much.
I get the argument that he would fall with that injury news.
Like, I think you're rakia 28. Davis is, like entirely
plausible. This is, this is a very binary
one, right? Like we're gonna get some news,
it's going to be good, it's going to be bad.
He's gonna go One Direction or the other, man.
I just think that, like, he's the guy you make the exception
on for, for the the injury risk and, you know, this will
probably burn you more times than it'll help you.
But, just with what he showed last year, I want to believe he
has the Jamaal Charles, you know, post ACL tear being the
rb1 and fantasy. You know, I don't believe he has
the Adrian Peterson season and I'm post ACL tear just because
he freaked athlete all that, but I definitely see the argument.
It's I mean I I get it. I'm not even saying I won't take
result the the big issue right now is you can just take Pollard
and worm Andre, every time I have no concerns about those
guys at all. And that's what I maybe.
I mean, maybe briefs the thing is though, is you could Really
be missing the boat because I would take Breeze ahead of
Jacobs and Chubb assuming 100% Health like he's got and I take
my had a tailor. Yeah well Jonathan Taylor so I
also ranked Taylor ahead of you guys because I mean, a couple of
reasons, the first one being I just think very similar to
Henry, he's just kind of memetic, like he just, he is
that guy. But also if we just get, if we
get good stuff about Anthony Richardson and good stuff about
the Colts, like it feels like the market.
We were talking about this in our ATP, chasing thread and I
kind of agreed with Sam's take that Anthony Richardson is not
good for Jonathan Taylor, but it also might be good for them to
just be like a better more functional offense instead.
Having Sam ehlinger a quarterback you know like it
just got to be such a mess for the filling improving situation
for Taylor. Yeah, it doesn't accept my point
like if they took if they traded up or Stroud that's the
best-case scenario where they traded for Bryce young, you
know, but if yeah, compared to what they were like, it's a hell
of a lot better than them going. We're not taking quarterback.
We're good, you know, so that I just think no matter how many
dump-off passes You know, you're giving up with Anthony
Richardson, the offense, could be quite a bit better.
Sure. But I guess I guess my counter
that is like like using last year's a baseline saying it's
gonna get better. Yeah, I agree.
It's like the offensive probably better Taylor was fucking like,
a terrible pick last year like you got 12 year olds were once
per game. Like the cult was the worst than
I remember. They would have sent.
Yeah, they were so bad. They were a lot.
That's a lot better for him, right?
Like not just like a little bit better.
Like, Yeah, but these were, these were these, These Are
teams that were scored more points and gained more yards per
play than the Indianapolis Colts last season the Los Angeles,
Rams, right? We're all laughing at the Los
Angeles Rams. They were better.
The Arizona Cardinals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the
Washington commanders, the Denver Broncos.
One of the largest shipwrecks in fantasy football history were
markedly better like I have I had forgot honestly I'd
forgotten like there's things you Get over the context.
I just did not realize they were this bad.
Do they heard of Coach off the ESPN set?
Not exactly. Yes, literally, did.
They like that? They literally being fucking was
watching. TV was like, that's my coach.
Let's get him in here tomorrow? Wow.
Oh man. Look at go wrong.
Yeah. What uh, what is a sir?
Okay, so I want to do a bit because I guess I'm the tailor
bear here, a little bit and I made that case in our in our
Discord. I guess I'll outline it here a
little bit for people. It's essentially that rushing
quarterbacks are Elite Russian, quarterbacks are really terrible
for the ceiling of a fantasy running backs.
Not to say that, you know, you can't have guys that you take in
the sixth, seventh round attached to an elite Russian
quarterback that are good pics, like certainly, Think that's
true but I think when we're talking about a guy going in the
first round with a quarterback that projects to a steal, a
bunch of goal-line, rushing be not really dumped down to
running backs in the passing game because he could scramble
instead and also likes throw deep, you know that are
Richardson and see like we all like Richards and I think but,
you know, you have to admit there's a chance at the Colts
are just a bottom five offense next year and just terrible.
Like there's there's a lot of things that have to go right for
Taylor to pay off his first-round cost.
And Like he's a meme. You can just say that like
Taylor Gober and like I kind of get it decide to some extent,
but I think like, I would probably rather have say Quan
Eckler, Jacobs Pollard, chub over Taylor.
I gotta be on my rankings I'm Takin Taylor over Eckler in .5
P, PR like pretty much sight unseen.
Yeah, me too. Plus I mean we have a signing
risk like you know? Sure.
Well okay then what's the like let's let's do this and you're
right. They think the argument is he's
like really fucking good. That's the argument.
The argument is really good and that's what the Jonathan Taylor
argument is. It's just like he's sick.
Yeah, sick dude, he was an amazing Prospect.
He came in, he was in he was insanely good, two years ago.
The offense is going to get back on its feet at least to some
extent. The best thing that he does.
Does is run the ball. That's what he does best.
He's a fine receiver, but that's not like his bread and butter is
bread and butter is running the ball and explosive runs and
aren't right. The Richardson's going to open
that up aren't running. Quarterback is good for yard
like yards per carry and since they are they boost yards per
carry. Yeah.
But I think pretending that rushing yards are more important
than receptions and I'm not pretending that I'm not no no,
I'm not saying you are. I'm just I'm just saying that
like you can use that argument but like the I agree, you know,
that's true. Good for yards per carry, you
could be wildly efficient but like show me the TD upside.
Show me the receiving upside, like I think you need one of
those things and a pretty big way and it just feels like a
lot. Like I can't tell myself a story
of Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson pay off their their
adp's with Richard, some going in the sixth round.
Like so I was looking, I have in my spreadsheet here for the
legendary upside stuff, green zone opportunities per game.
So, over the career of all these backs, Adjusted it slightly for
some who had like major changes in situation but Eckler are
sorry, Taylor. I have for his career to green
zone opportunities for a game. That's highest of any of these
running backs. David Cook was second 1.9.
Joe Mixon had 1.8 Josh Jacobs at 1.8 compared to like Tony
Pollard 0.4. So yes, I get the Anthony
Richardson is going to be stealing some goal line work
from him as a giant human but Don't know.
I mean, he's a rookie quarterback.
Like, is our that you see Gonna they, and you have Jonathan
Taylor, like, I guess I'm a little bit less concerned about
Anthony Richardson, being the goal line Runner, then you are.
I think he's definitely gonna get some work there, but Taylor
was getting fed at the goal line.
There's no other running back who's even remotely live to
steal any of that work. I mean, Evan Hall, they're not
bringing in heaven whole to go line like ever.
I still got that. Heinz isn't even on the team
anymore. More like this.
Like he could, he could have a Henry volume season like he
could have 380 touches. I guess that's my point, right?
Like you're making it, you have to admit, you're making a
Derrick Henry two years ago it's Derrick Henry.
Yeah it's Derek, okay. So if you're 24 years old and
he's he's an incredible Runner. I mean you talk about job like
chops, 27 years old and you know we had a really bad knee injury
in college like like all the data that I've been looking at
is saying, like you really you If anything, we're like, giving
if you're talking about running back ceiling, we're extending
things too long, but we should actually start to get nervous
about the ceiling earlier than we are.
And so, when I look at a guy like Nick Chubb, obviously the
offense is way better like the offensive environment, way more
interesting. Chub could potentially catch
some passes this year, as well. I kind of like chub actually
for, like the first time in five years, but he's 27 years old,
there's a big difference between that.
And so, when he's 24, Yeah, that's fair.
I mean I really think like the Taylor ceiling case like can hit
its on possible, we've seen like this setup for Derrick Henry
more or less hit like a just a really efficient rusher, not
going to catch passes but now you're making the Derrick Henry
bet but the team has Derrick Henry at quarterback, who's
gonna score, rushing touchdowns, and it's going to be a bad.
Like, if the Colts are as good as those Ryan Tannehill, LED
Titans offenses, like, I'll bet with anybody on that, like,
Titans Tannehill, offices are going to be way better than this
year's Colts offense. Like, I'll, I'll bet even money
with anybody on that. Like, no-questions-asked, like
Santana was really good some of those years and he wasn't like
stealing Gold Line work from Henry.
So I don't know, man. I get what you guys are saying.
Like, I'm, I'm gonna have a pretty hard fade on Taylor at
this price and I'm, I'm willing to accept that.
Do you think he falls or do you think you just don't, you don't
like the price, I think you follow.
So I'll show this now, Jonathan Taylor.
Since, you know, I'm a market. Mover out here since I sent me
that tweet on Taylor. He's down for spots.
He's got more spots. Second biggest fall 13 overall,
you know I'm sitting in Pete screams, he's like, are you guys
really gonna let me take Taylor at pick 17?
I honestly think, like, when the projections come out people are
gonna remember Taylor last year with a sour taste in their
mouths. Like I think he's gonna I think
he's gonna slide but that's just me like I'm willing to, you
know, go with classic taking the mid s.
Yeah. Actually, that's that's when I
would like to take him. So maybe it's a little bit of
wish casting for me, but I had this exercise.
I'm going to skip through it. I wanted you guys to try to find
Taylor chub and Jacobs. On this chart, I took the last
three years of data, and just looked at, keep your points per
game or sorry. Happy drop points per game.
Receptions per game yards per game.
Do you guys want to do this quickly or should I just show
you the answer? So I think it's a little
interesting. These are all samples of like 40
games too. So they're pretty.
Big samples. Well, I mean the eight just
based on the ages yeah Henry Henry ones the top one because
he's the 28 29. Yeah that is that one has to be
Henry. Right.
So where do you think? You know, one of the others I'm
going to I'm going to show you on.
Yes. So I was trying to make the
point that essentially like Jacobs and Taylor.
I think I get the arguments for chub Taylor but ahead of chub,
the ones with Jacobs. First, Taylor, for me, it's just
like, we, like, running back to catch passes.
Jacob, sketches Pat more passes than Taylor.
He's definitely gonna protect you that this year, you know,
yards per game Jacobson Taylor last three years are basically
the same, you know, points per game.
Jacob's Taylor, the last three years, not that different.
I get that Taylor's ceiling which you showed two years ago,
it's better than Jacob ceiling which you show last year, like
certainly you have that argument and, you know, you can make the
speed arguing with Taylor Breakaway Ron's that sort of
thing. But again, look at You know,
we're talking about rushing Talent PFF Rush grades last
three years Jacob's first, 10th 20th, Taylor 51st, third tenth.
Like I don't think they're that as different as people view them
as talents like and it sort of any metric you look at.
They're not, they're not that different.
We have this like idnr had that Jacobs.
Is this gross DeadZone back? Taylor's this like Elite Talent.
I mean they're basically the same age that's my point
basically. Like the the situation for
Jacobs this year looks so much better.
Taylor for me and I don't think they're that different of
talent. So like I think they should at
least be close. But yeah, here's your just not
going to get. So Jacobs is like an okay,
rusher. But this is Rota visitors.
Richard's fantasy points over expected per game.
Rushing and Josh Jacobs as at one point one, which is like,
fine. That's that's what Boston Eckler
has its, what Christian Caffrey has.
So it, but it's more kind of like the Workhorse bet Jonathan.
Taylor is a 2.3 Derrick Henry was a 2.4 Breeze Halls at 2.7,
which is why I'm so excited about him.
If he was healthy. Nick Chubb, one of the reasons.
Nick Chubb was at 2.5. So those guys, I would say those
right now or like your, for potentially and we'll see, you
know, age Health, all the stuff. But like those for, I think, are
in a bit of a difference here because they provide a lot more
explosion. I mean, Jake Jacob's, doesn't
really provide you any explosion as a rusher.
He's a he's a chunk play Runner and he's good, he's good at
that. Yeah, yeah, that's fair.
I mean, I don't know. 53 catches last year 2000 yards from
scrimmage, like I get that was sort of a ceiling but weld are
you worried about that. So that's when one thing that
stuff with me, it with Jacobs little bit like And I do take
them because the price is pretty good.
Like the price on, all these guys does feel pretty good right
now, I'm taking them a lot more than I would, you know, head
expected to. But even last year he had 17.9
Half Point PPR points per game, which is good but like it was
especially good because where you got them, you know?
Yeah. So if we're saying, like, always
be taking them or Taylor goes like, I don't know.
Last year really felt like kind of the ceiling to me, and then
you're moving, Jimmy Garoppolo a quarterback.
I'm not really a Jimmy believer. I think the offense could be not
that. It was great last year, but I
might have been kind of a perfect storm for a running
back. Yeah, that we work on.
We kind of had given up on as a talent and then he comes surgeon
back to life but he did it with good efficiency for sure.
But mostly by just consolidating the entire backfield.
He's a he's a pretty strong favorite to do that again,
right? I don't know, I mean for first
in PFF Rush grade I get that like that's not everything but
like I'm going to push back a little That on Jacobs not being
a good talent at running back, like I think I'm not saying it's
not, I'm saying I'm saying Taylor is potentially Elite
Talent, running back and I think I think that, you know, guys
like chub Taylor. I mean, Taylor had Russia, is
over expected, two years ago, he was off the fucking charts.
I mean, the guy was, let's see well he wasn't because Richard
Penny actually was 2.1, but he was he finished third at one
point. Four eight had a Nick Chubb.
Tony Pollard was fifth So, I mean, he what he showed is a
rusher and on a big workload at 481 yards, over expected two
years ago. Chubb had 269.
He was like handling massive volume and providing Elite
efficiency on top of it. So it's more for me that Taylor
side of this that I'm arguing, I think Jacobs is like good
runner. Sure, Taylor, flash, delete
ability, Jacob's never has. Yeah, so I guess I see some
pushback in the chat, like, my argument is not that these are
bad stats for Taylor. Like, these are really good
stats and again he had one pretty bad year in here.
So, Taylor ceiling is certainly really good.
I just think, like, your first round pick the downside of the
team situation. Again, could be a horrible, team
a running back. That's not going to throw to the
quarterback. That's not going through the
running back and the quarterback that like, if he's good, he's
going to be a fucking monster. Throughout the goal line and
taking a bunch of touch, a bunch of touchdown.
So like you know I'm thinking like how Justin Fields just
sucked up all the running back points from the Bears Back
Field. Last year, how Jalen Hurd said
that two years ago? Like that's like the median
outcome. I think honestly for this type
of offense and I just don't get, I don't see the point of like,
taking that type of risk and you as your first round pick in this
tournament, but you guys are making good points.
Like, you know, I see both sides of it but that's okay.
Yeah. Think he'll fall to the early
second. I think you're probably right
about that or maybe even amidst. I mean, for the mid S, I mean
mean Sam, please get those tweets out there.
I want mid-second, Jonathan Taylor like, yeah, I would, I
would be, I would have no qualms at that price.
Like I feel it's an uneasy click for me, sort of at that, at that
turn, but at like 17 or whatever.
Pretty easy. Yeah, I took I think it was
Adams Taylor at the at the 112 and I was doubling it up and I
Like looked at him. I looked at Taylor, I was like,
we doing this, we're doing it, you know, it's, but it's like
that kind of, it's not like you're smashing the button at
112 so I could see him falling for sure.
Paul says, either the skeevies at Arby's that JT's town, I
agree with that. Someone give me example, of the
elite Russian quarterback who ran for, you know, 700 plus
yards and they're running back, who was, you know, a top three
running back in fantasy. Like, I don't think that exists,
Maybe I'm Wrong, someone gave me these Sample of that.
I just don't think it exists but it's gonna anyways sample.
Yeah, but I have never really happened before, you know that
you would have had a guy that would qualify tillers level.
Yeah, but yeah, I get what, I get a totally get where you're
coming from. I mean, it is thin, it's a to
down rushing profile which makes it thinner.
Yeah. That yeah, the Newton the Newton
CNC one is interesting. But that, that was really when
Newton was no longer rushing for like 800 people, people said
that about see him see though, that was that was all dead.
That was a thing. But but I wasn't getting
comparing. Yeah, me draft and see him soon
because he's not going to get dumped off.
See, now that's fair. But Comparing cmc's receiving
talent to Jonathan Taylor's again, like because the reason
CMC hit is because he was an absolute like what he caught 105
passes. Like that's the reason he hit
that year, I know, but they were like there was a thing of like,
Candace and chick down cams never.
Gonna throw to the running back so like sure.
Yeah, I get that. I get that.
Yeah, I mean, and I don't know, I mean, Richardson super
inaccurate to the salary of the field, which is a major problem,
but I do think that's More of a concern for like a Josh Downs or
whatever, you know, or like maybe even a Hitman to some
extent where it's like, he's not like he's going to miss throws
but like maybe the tape guys gotta tell me they can't, can he
not? He can't do this, he can't get
it to Jonathan. Taylor two yards away like they
might build it. You might see some like, kind
of, you know, deep like deep and then read the Taylor quick dump
off. So there might not be a lot of,
like, underneath, reads for him early on, because he sucks at
that. So, No, I guess like for me it
is kind of just the caveman take of like doubt.
It was really fucking good dude. Like they'll figure out a way to
get him the ball like and I don't think he'd all the
touchdowns are going the quarterback and I don't think
he's not going to catch any passes this year.
So like, if the offense is going to be better and Jonathan
Taylor, still healthy and young, I'm gonna take Jonathan Taylor
It's a fair argument with that. I will still be fitting with
that price but I totally realize are coming from.
Let's move on to this chart here largest ATP Rogers since last
time we talked so about the last 10 days.
No surprises. Number one of the start talking
about meaning players up draft boards, Anthony Richardson is
hydro-jetting all imperator. I'm sad to report.
This had to report that a person is just simply under affable at
these prices. Come on, guys, get him in the
puppy, you know, get him in the pub.
Yeah. You have to do with the same
price, you might as well just take them.
Yeah, no, I'm with that. But I just like, what, what's
going to happen to his ATP? When we started to hear the
first inklings that Gardner Minshew is going to start in
week one. I don't think he is, man.
I don't think you're getting those reports.
They were, they were pretty, they were pretty emphatic.
That, that I forget, I forget that you're mr.
Press conference, I don't know, man.
It's just a lot. He started 13 games in college.
Hey Josh, Nora swatches, the press conference is to and he
was saying the same thing. Evan Silva saying the same
thing, the press conference gang, we think this guy's
playing, okay, he's playing out of the gate.
I mean, I can't possibly stomach not having Anthony Richardson,
if he runs for 15 touchdowns. So, like, I'm gonna take him a
little bit, but I don't think, I don't think this is a
particularly good ATP. Where would you?
Because to me I like honestly, I am still Will taking him some.
I think, I think an equitable spot for him at quarterback is
like right after Dak, right sodac.
And to, uh, like I would take daken to ahead of him honestly.
Partly? Just because of how good to a
stacking partners are for week, 17 stuff, you know, like, having
Tyreke and waddle. Obviously I'm never, like, I
don't think I've ever taken to a not had those guys.
So, that's when the game we're playing gets a little bit weird,
and it starts to be less about individual.
Valuations, you know, but yeah, I think quarterback 12 or 13 is
right about where he should be. I think he clearly has a higher
one week ceiling than Daniel Jones Kirk Cousins, maybe Aaron
Rodgers. I mean, I don't know.
Are Roger, maybe Aaron Rodgers turns back, the dial and his
throne, 400 yards and four touchdowns, again, I don't think
so, but it could happen. Yeah.
I mean if I have you know the stacking Partners I'm going to
but you do get to a spot in the drafts or this like not a ton of
opportunity cost. That is the other thing too, is,
it's kind of sad. They're the and like I've said,
I've lined up, I got Tyler Lockett and jsn on a team and I
lined up a Gino thing and Gino went at like pick 99 so I'm like
what the fuck? You know like I can't even get
so Gina pick 99. Like, I'm an idiot.
Ur taking Richardson, it like 80.
I feel fine now, that's fine. Yeah, so I actually to me I'm
like, I don't mind taking him over overt act.
Like we know what McCarthy's going to do is going to ruin the
fun. So that's yeah, that's true.
I guess I'm thinking Dak that I know and love not the doctor.
We're about to see. So yeah.
I think I think Richardson actually is going to rise a
little more because I don't think people are done.
I don't think everybody. Some people are starting to be
like I'm good. I'm good.
But like I think he's I can he's keep Rising, I think he's gonna
go. I think he's going to go into
the mid-70s. That's where I think that's when
I think people will start. Okay.
They'll like really freaked out and be like, dude, what is
happening? We, we can't do this, but until
we're in the mid 70s, I don't think it stops.
So a couple things I want to point out.
I did a ATP pole and that's that was the consensus.
The majority of people said in the 60 to 75 range.
So yeah, call that someone the middle around pick 70 but I even
higher than what I thought. Yeah, that was the majority.
D of response is my take is like, I think he will get there
in the next couple weeks, but then I think there's going to be
a bit of a boomerang effect at some point.
I'm not saying that we're going to get the Gardner.
Minshew is starting Camp, narratives or anything like
that. I just think it's honestly like
a combination of, you know, maybe some some reports like
he's looks a little rust or, you know, looks a little rusty out
there doesn't know all the offensive Concepts plus, you
know people who aren't sick like us and our casual college
football. Ends are going to open the ADP
and be like that quarterback from Florida who was terrible
last year is going at, pick 75 like fuck that.
I'm taking Dak Prescott, that's a good point.
There's going to be that influx of people who are going to be
like, who either. Who is this guy?
Never heard of them, or I follow college football.
This guy was not that good. So I think like by September,
it'll go back, I'm guessing like 90 ish.
So I think like close to where he is now.
That's, that's my real. A on it, my take on his value
is. I think he is fine where he is
now but like no longer a huge value.
And like if he goes to 70 60 I'm like probably completely out but
like at 85 I'm still like I'm kind of with you guys.
Like yeah, opportunity cost doesn't seem that high, you
know, if I have, you know, stacking partner for Dallas or
Miami, I'm probably taking d'accord to over him, but other
than that like to be ten, seems okay to me.
Yeah. At this point, I like your read
that feels like what's going to happen.
He's going to go up and then he'll come back down a bit.
We saw that with his. Yeah, we saw that.
Maybe I last year. Sorry, go ahead.
Let's just say, get your kicks in the puppy.
If you feel like you don't have enough Anthony Richardson, go
get your Anthony Richardson the puppy because that's a close
tournament. But if you buy what Sam sann and
I think it's a good point, then this is probably the worst time
to draft him invest on Mania. Yeah, I think that's true.
I'm kind of with you, and it's just like, there's some
unpredictability element of it to where you like, take Pittman
and you're like, do I need to take Richardson out like 66 now
to make sure I get them are like crazy, like, how do I even stack
this? Like you get so insecure about
it because there's these psychos taking them, you know, super
early. So we'll Pippins probably better
off if they start Minshew and in all honesty.
So I wouldn't. Yeah, I wouldn't reach for
Richardson too much but I've done the same thing.
I do the same thing today. I was like, oh God my gonna
Richardson. Yeah it's tough.
Let's move on to another sort of Hot Topic rookie.
Riser Dalton Kincaid is now up 100.
Sorry up to pick 116 up 31 spots from last time.
We talked he is going. I believe at the tight end 11
over also behind fryer Muth an in-joke you but ahead of guys
like Dalton Schultz chigga Chung kuo.
Welcome at Greg. Dosage, Etc.
Davis. I so in my opinion, this is
going to come down to how do you project Buffalo's slot, wide
receiver rotation. I can't get with this man.
Yeah, so tell us tell us why why you think this is bad ATP.
I mean so like it starts with pre-draft stuff where he didn't
work out at all. Now obviously he was like a good
receiving Prospect, you know, he was good at Utah but so is
Michael Mayer and Michael Mayer. Worked out.
That makes me like him more which is not, not that I think
Dalton Kate is, you know, likely Smith out there like unable like
it, not a good athlete or whatever.
But then also it's just like a lot of, like, well, okay, it's
Dawson, knocks dead, I don't know.
So, what Liam Liam, obviously, the bowl Liam's thing is like
Khalil Shakir, Deonte already like don't exist, right?
It's like, these guys are afterthoughts because the bills
really want adult and can go And he really is just going to be
he's they it's what he's Kyle pits, right?
That's that's really what these people are saying is that he is
not really going to be asked to block and he's just going to be
a slot wide receiver on a good offense.
God, I mean, carpets never played on a good offense, but I
don't know. I like Meyer, 90 pics cheaper.
Personally, That's fair Pat and he any hope for Kincaid of this
ATP or you you on Davis aside are you more interested?
This feels too hot. I mean, 116 like he's the tight
end. 11. Yeah, that's really, really
high. I don't know.
I mean like I said originally I was like look this is a
fourteenth round type of pick like this is a guy that you're
like hoping for playoffs bike weeks from, you know, he's not
going to be a regular contributor because he's not
going to be actually playing all that much.
He's just not like Dawson. Knox is going to be out there.
Time as the tight end. I mean, they're there.
I know they're saying like oh our are too tight end sets now
like a three wide receiver set but like teams always going to
say stuff like that, they just drafted in the first round.
They're not actually going to play a tight end.
Is there full time, slot, receiver?
That's that's just, I mean I am ready to be like really wrong
about that because it's just, like, not wrong.
How long are you gonna be how wrong?
Like, what would Dalton Kincaid have to do?
Like like, you know, tied in six is like nothing.
Don't like if Dalton can gauge finishes tied in six with 180
Half Point. PPR points and scores 12 points
in week 17, it affected you none.
They just didn't matter. Yeah, well in sorry, but past
snaps Kyle pits played. 22% of his past snaps in line as a
rookie. You don't want to lose those.
You know, you like we talked about Titans blocking verse
running routes. Like I mean, maybe Arthur Smith
would do this but generally they're not at the bills are not
going to have a tight end blocking on, passing plays all
that often, it's going to be like the blocking component is
about run blocking, so the ability to be in line.
Maybe you're looking like you're going to run and this play
action play. You want your guy out there.
You want him in line as a traditional tight end for the
big chunk of snaps that he's going to have to play.
Because he is technically a tight end.
Even if like Kyle pits, he's basically a receiver Kyle pits.
You know. He played over 40% of his snaps
in the slot. He also played over a third of
his snaps out wide. I don't think Dalton can Kate's
doing that. So I think I don't know the cow
pit stuff like even even that's like even he isn't that guy,
he's not Kyle pits that way partly because he's not even
going to have a chance to play. Like as traditionally as Kyle
pits Dawson Knox is going to get all that in line stuff.
Let me give you like a less bullish case than Kyle pits in
terms of rookie year. Roll what about what the Broncos
of the Craig dulcich last year. I think they essentially.
So I'm looking at I'm pulling up this old statue, sitting side of
us. Kind of a touchy topic Sam.
Yeah. So, I wanna go.
Yeah. Should we remove Davis from the
stream? All we talk about Greg Bell
Stitch, we might need. Anyways, I'm looking at Weeks
ten to thirteen last year. So this is a snapshot in time
not the whole year. Greg dulcich had like an 80%
route rate if I remember correctly and I don't have the
numbers right now, that was heavily like a slot, basically a
slot wide receiver role so 3% in line 33 percent in line but but
still that's like. So that what I'm saying?
I guess. Like I'm agree with you.
As I'm just trying to make devil's advocate case, like what
if Kincaid plays all too tight end sets and is like the tide
out, who's running the pass route?
Knox is in the block and then in three wide receiver sets, he
mixes in on like half of those. Like that's not crazy.
I think he's got to beat out knocks.
Basically Knox has to be the guy coming in for extra stuff, and
he's got to be the guy out there in line playing regular tight
end at this price at this purpose.
I mean, yeah. Yeah.
At the at the end of the draft, if you're if you basically just
have a part-time because what you're talking about otherwise
is he's running, 55 to 60% of the routes that sucks that's
like that's what the cult situation from years past like
that is. And we do see that in the NFL
that's not uncommon that they would have a tight end room
where like, you know, one guy runs 45 percent around 21 guys
run at 55 or whatever. They split it up.
And they'll be, they'll be well over a hundred percent because
they will run this this too tight end set.
That's basically a three wide receiver thing, a fair amount,
but not enough, I don't think enough, he's got a and I'm not
saying you can't beat out knocks but I think it's like maybe a
taller order than the market thinks.
And and I don't even know if that the market agrees that
that's what they're betting on, but I feel pretty strongly that
is what they're betting on at this price.
You're betting on him to beat out knocks to at least some
degree. Yeah, the thing is like, I want
to be in on cakes. I stare at that bills pass
catching core and besides digs, it's like just guys that are not
good at learning targets Gabe. Davis, you know, Dawson knocks
like Deonte Hardy and whoever else like man, if they're like,
there is an opportunity for a number two guy and a tight end
to step up but I'm with you like it seems unlikely that he earns
this big role in year one but hey maybe it's a maybe it's a
week 15 through 17 play. But yeah, I think I'm Rowley
mostly out on this price unless I have unless I have Joshua
Allen and then I'm going to say fuck it and take him.
Yeah, I mean, right, so so much of that, come so much of.
It does literally come down to. Yeah, just take them when you're
stacking, right? I might take knocks dude, if
you're playing for touchdowns like knox's, took me out.
Knox is free knocks. Are you gonna do the the Chesley
em and take both of them? No, I'm saying cases,
overpriced, I believe I've been clear.
Okay, I'll give you guys the floor.
Pat. Any guy on this list?
That we've talked about guys that we actually don't like
right now, I'm going to challenge you.
Give me a guy on this list of a rookie Riser where you're still
excited about their ATP. Addison still, good Gib still.
Good rice, still good to me. Mingo, absolutely.
So unpalatable. So so undoubtable to me at 132
as Adam thielen You know, jockstrap holder.
So you're hammering out of the Olympic one.
No I don't. I literally I maybe have not
taken a Carolina Panther yet. I wonder I wonder if I've taken
a single Panthers player, I maybe haven't so I have a
sickness for and this is probably only need to get out of
my game but I have a sickness for the really fucking cheap
Stacks. The text is the Panthers.
You Patriots told me you're not still doing a feeling thing.
Hey yeah I'm not doing the feeling thing.
I'm doing my thing. Now I've moved on it was never
really doing the feel nothing but there Here's something
that's debatable. No, no no one can fact, check my
exposures will get the data next year, but like, to jump to this
team start chart for a second. Like there's this thing.
Look at look at Carolina, look at Houston.
Look at New England. Look at the Titans.
If you're if you're actually that sick if one of these teams
is just like League average and you take the full game stack,
that's actually like huge leverage.
I kind of Of the Jags last year like Trevor Lawrence.
Evan engram Zeta-Jones rounds 12. 16 18, boom, your team's
going to advance, right? Like and I think you can kind of
make cases with Stroud with Bryce young.
You pick the right pass, catchers, you pick the tight
end. So like that's why I'm not
saying draft Feelin. I'm saying that's why I'm okay
with mango because it comes in such a cheap package of stacks
that like if you get that, right, that's actually huge.
Huge leverage for your team. I think I I completely agree.
I think you don't even have to take the quarterback.
You know, you can have you can get like, and I love chuba
Hubbard where he goes Mi Sanders is cheap enough where I'm still
taking him even though I think he's like the Prototype of a
dead zone running back which is telling you know, I think pretty
strong indication the market has shifted in some big ways.
So yeah. I'll still take him in like the
sixth and then with I will take Mingo.
I actually don't hate where mangoes going and I'm partly
because I think this isn't where he Ops, I think mingoes going to
keep going up. I think he's going to be more of
like a tenth eleventh, like 10th because he's crabby 11th.
I'm kind of with you on on Mingo.
I mean, remember, we did this. The Panthers are going to be the
Panthers are going to be the 27th offense in the NFL, but
there's no target competition and they just took them with
like, was the 39th pick honestly, and I don't know.
You guys are no more about this. The meat is that like ever work
out or in a team, just has like, Eight shitty guys.
And you're like, one of them could be not shitty, like I
don't know. Does it ever work out?
It's, you know, there actually has been.
Who's, who's the best wide receiver on the Texans.
Last year, I see your point in the extreme scenario, where the
offense really does. Suck your right, but there has
been some research. I think JJ Zachary Smith has
done this like, where you get into the later rounds.
Your Best Bets are the wide receiver ones on a team.
Like, once you're in like I think this is like I would buy
that house. Oh yeah.
You get to a certain point like am I going to take Mingo or like
Tyler boy, who I know is just the water 03 on the Bangles or
like, you know, am I gonna take Donovan people's Jones who is
just like fifth in line for Targets on the the Browns are
like? You know, I'm sure you can come
up with better examples and me, but that's kind of hard in this
range. Like a lot of receivers are just
saying, I'm gonna get Davis back, I'm gonna get those back
Davis. Jonathan mango is six foot two.
He's 220 pounds. You're not talking to your ahead
of the A two-year-old me, just just remember what it was like
to be young, dude, just remember what it's like to be young.
Your hair never grows. You know what good it is?
39, average, vert, what I remember about that is Stephen
Hill going for 150 yards and two touchdowns in his first NFL game
and then never be heard from again.
Just disappearing. Like the Loch, Ness monster,
just go Cole of Stephen Hill. That's too good.
Let's do accurate. Yeah.
He he, he evaporated, dude, it was too much.
No, but I am Come on. Like, if Sky more had not just
happened. Rice would be a ninth round.
Pick already. Honestly, I honest to God.
I really would. I kind of agree.
I think you're right. Or you're right.
I like rice at this price, mostly because I don't really
like Sky more and I think Tony's fine, but you just have fun is
Tony rocketing up, dude. I don't know.
Hey it's here. It seems actually kind of
insane. They didn't have laid him last
year. They did.
Sort of like now he's not ready and I know they're saying, oh
God, he's so good, he's so good at everything but like, you
know, it's not good at getting on the field ever, it doesn't do
that very well. That's a problem for us.
Hey, when he gets on the field though it's electric was it.
He's top five in the NFL last two years and targets per outrun
because he runs like six or only game.
Yeah. All 50 of them.
Yeah. Those little 12 targets and
thirty seven rounds. Really?
L don't want to know is that he's just fancy Dexter
McCluster. Oh god.
Oh man. That's that's tough.
That being said, I'm not going to be caught with my pants down
on canaries. Tony, I'm going to have 18
percent of this dude, come hell or high water.
I mean, I'm look when I have my home's, I do try to get Tony, I
try my try my best, but I mean, if he's going to get a lot more
expensive than this, like, He's got like every French flag there
is outside. Like will he will get more
expensive because as long as he doesn't get hurt in the
preseason, they're going to keep gassing him up.
There's there's equally there's good people on both sides of the
the Tony debate. I think that are gonna keep that
from that. There's enough people who are
saying, Tony got four snaps in the Super Bowl last year, versus
the people are saying he has, you know, a hundred targets per
round on. So here's the here's the thing
about because if someone who's just, you know, Setting up for
snaps super last year. I don't really want to be like
that. I don't want that to be my brand
this offseason. So yelling about careers Tony
because he could certainly hurt me in a big white.
Dude, he could bury you. He could bury me, he is exactly.
That's the thing. Could Darius Tony could dead
ass. Yeah, that's top-scoring, wide
receiver in fantasy, he really could.
Mmm. Okay, well, you've lost me no
but he is going quickly quickly if he I'm scoring wide receiver.
Kelsey Kelsey gets injured. We doesn't help to get injured
180 Target. He stays healthy.
He maintains something like his targets per outrun as a
full-time player and his targets are coming from Patrick mom's.
Well, my here's my, my point is that I'm, I'm not going to be
vocally, you know, tweeting up a storm, banging the table.
And every podcast, saying what are we doing with carriers,
Tony? I get it, I get the upside, we
want to chase the upside. I Probably will be underweight,
Tony, and be nervous. So I actually don't, I don't
know, Sam, that there's going to be a contingent brave enough to
push that out since you're saying, I think, I think he is
gonna go keep going. If the Tony haters are feeling
confident, I do think he's going to keep Rising because, yeah,
he's not. If you don't, you don't hate
him. That much silent, majority of
Tony faders. No crane crane doesn't hate him
that much because he won't trade him to me.
I traded him away, dude. And you see, Oh yeah, you got my
Gavin's, I got Mike Evans, let's talk, let's talk some veterans
less sexy names on this list. I'll look at this value.
I'm getting from our game last week, Jerick McKinnon, I mean,
what a, what a closing line value, it's gummy those those
ass come here. But man, this is like how many
this is like the SpongeBob Meme. How many times you have to teach
you? This old man.
How many times you have to teach you these?
Veteran running backs when they fall to one Ed and then they get
signed automatic 40. Take ATP.
Yeah, we're getting to a point now.
We're like it's riskier. We're like cream hunt babies out
of the league Zeke. I don't know, but like, it's
just such a consistently good bet this whole offseason.
Sure, maybe you're left holding the bag on, like one of these
guys loses out in the end but like penny smash McKinnon.
Smash Damien Harris. Smash, like, just take the, take
the free agent, running backs, like I don't know why this is
this thing of a dynamic. I'll defend the market on
McKinnon quickly because they didn't want to sign him before
the draft. There's basically like one team
that's interested in bringing him back.
He something happened at the end of last season.
We got phased out which was super weird.
He's 31 years old, he could honestly have retired.
So that's after. But I mean I do if your point is
we should be taking Leonard, fournette, and holding her nose
and taking Ezekiel Elliott. You have me.
The fournette part I still not taking Elliot, but I'm not a
complete should be. I probably am, I am?
I'm pretty sure enough. I'm brave enough to do it
because what what what sits with smart if the thing about Zeke is
he just exist to Annoy Us. So he's going to sign and get an
annoying amount of work, but that's what porn addicts is to
do as well. And I'm like, there's one that's
gonna end up. There's that there's plenty of
meat left on this and knowing bone.
Sure is. Yeah, I think the, like
narrative that there's gonna, like, run out of A landing spots
for these guys like once you factor in the one or two
injuries that are going to happen from now, till then once
you factor in like maybe briefs all Javonte these like, ACL
guy's not coming back as well as we expect.
Like spots are going to free up for these guys they're going to
get signed. Like it might not be yeah.
Amazing you might not get, you know, for net on the Bangles
with mix and getting caught. Like that's that's a fantasy.
That's probably not gonna happen but they're gonna have some role
at some point. So here, Here's here's one
thing. I struggle with okay, for net is
going at pick, 190, Z is going at, pick 165 to pay a premium to
get Zeke. And like the issue is I probably
shouldn't get worked up about that and just take them both.
But I have a really hard time like I'm making this same exact.
It feels to me, I'm obviously the it's not there to different
people who wound up into different situations but it's
like they're feel like the exact same bet and one cost 36 more
than the other. So I've had a really hard time
taking Zeke but I think that's a leak.
I think I should just mix in Zeke Moore.
Yeah, I think it's I Am with You Pat.
I don't have my exposures up right now.
I probably have like 30 percent For Dad or something.
Disgusting and likely got you too.
I'm like, literally zero literally zero Zeke, but like if
you're taking Zeke, I can't really make the argument against
it. I think it's just like I'm
making the same mental calculus as you and I probably should
just take a little pig. Little Zeke live a little, let's
talk Lamar Jackson a little bit he's you know, biggest risers,
second second week in a row man this Lamar Jackson situation.
I think it's like a little underrated, how exciting it is
for him, he's dead. With terrible pass.
Catchers last couple years, all of a sudden, you get Z flowers,
you know, Rashad Evans coming back, Mark Andrews will be
there. No matter what you think about
Dell, I think Odell as a number three wide receiver.
That's way better than what he's had in years past with, like,
fucking miles Boykin. And whoever got Isaiah, likely
pretty talented. Pass-catching tight end number
two, there's some ladies. Do you want?
A is like a pretty solid number for this point?
You don't even a Galore as a field stretching?
Yeah. Like the depth is just a lot
better like you're not. Putting out, who's that.
Road of is like, fifth round tile and walnut Town walls.
Yeah, you're not putting out miss him every day.
Yeah I draft. A lot of them at one point my
life, but anyways, this Ravens pass catcher.
Core is a lot better than it's ever been.
I almost wonder like, we saw this this chart of the Lamar
Andrews, projected ATP. It almost feels to me that like
it could move to Andrews Lamar. Three turn.
Like I think that's in the range of outcomes that that could
happen like a little more jump. One of these quarterbacks I
think this on stacking partners, he it's just it's so tough for
him to jump Josh out because people are not gonna look back
on the last couple years and let that happen.
So man it's tough but they're there will be some people that
take him. I think at the two three turn
and that's going to keep Lamar, I think pretty safely in this
like 27 to 30 range. I think I think we'll how yeah,
I think that's right. I think what will happen is he
will be his ATP will hover around the tooth return pick
Seven or something. Andrews will be the same and
some people especially if Alan goes a little earlier than a
teepee. They'll go I wanted an elite
quarterback, all three are gone, I'm gone and resume are the
term. I think you'll see that fair
amount. I did it today.
It's kind of fun. I think you'll see that quite a
bit too. And I also just think that,
like, the Lamar and then pick pick your choice between flowers
and Bateman is like a, pretty cheap stack with upset.
I don't think like season long either flowers, or Bateman are
gonna, like, absolutely smashed or anything.
I think just like sees like weekly upside that that
individual stack pairing with one of those wide receivers,
just like pretty, pretty exciting.
So I thought they have been a pretty live to smash.
Hit a ninth round ATP. He was super efficient last
year, I don't know what the deal.
He wasn't running a Full Slate of routes which was super weird
and maybe he won't this year and that would I was hurt but he
that's a cheap price tag for a guy with talent and and
potentially much better situation.
So yeah, II really like I take him a lot even when I don't have
a more I'm not going to pretend to be a doctor but like I think
the Liz, Frank thing is like the one mental block from you,
getting all the way in on abatement.
I know that injuries been like pretty tough for people to come
back from. Um, but again, I agree largely
I'm taking a lot of Bateman that's like think that that's
what's depressing is ATP. Honestly, is that that injury
risk loopback people's minds, but Davis, what are your what
are your thoughts on on Lamar at this price?
Yeah, I'm an hundred percent. Yeah, no problem.
No problem. Clicking that button.
Like a five, pick discrepancy between him and Justin Fields.
People II. Don't, I don't think I'm with
Karina Bateman though back-to-back.
Here's a, I mean I like in a perfect world.
World where I could guarantee that his body functions properly
also there, you know, you hate to say it, but there are some
murmurings that the team thinks he's soft, right?
That that they're sort of that, you know, Duvernay is playing
banged up. You know, we got we got these
Talent, you know, I mean, how many Anonymous dudes played wide
receiver for them broke his foot.
More than ever for injury the year before to it was lower
body. It was lower body the year
before to remember it was a bit was abdominals like a preseason
abdominal injury. That's what it was.
It was an abdominal thing. I mean, maybe maybe, maybe I'm
wrong. Maybe, I'm misremembering.
Maybe I'm applying this to someone it to me.
The Beckham signing felt like kind of Bateman Insurance.
Like to have another guy. Yeah.
On the outside. No I definitely think that's the
case. Like my concern with Bateman is
that he Doesn't get full playing time.
Yeah. But I think that's somewhat
priced in, he had two point three eight yards per hour on
last year, which is really good. He was a deep threat.
He 13 .28. I think that's like what you
want to see with Lamar Jackson receiver and at a ninth round
ATP. I mean we're talking like
Michael Tighe. You want to talk about guys
worried about their health like he's going next to Michael
Thomas. It's going next Courtland
Sutton? I mean, this is the range where
we take geyser. Like, I don't know if this dude
can do it, but if you can, it's Be cool.
So although as you know that type I like him more Damon does
for whenever I'm in a draft and once like Bateman's gone, I'm
like, okay there's no water severs left, I'm taking some
running backs, like that is for me, he's that guy.
That's like the last of like the exciting wide receivers on my
board for for a while, for a while.
Yeah. So that's yeah.
I like them a lot. But yeah.
They injury risk. I think like we have to
acknowledge does exist to some extent, but I think He's but
it's nice because I we've talked a lot about guys who are going
to be screaming up boards. He's not gonna scream upwards,
you knows a flowers is going to cap his his potential price.
So I think we're going to get him in this range and maybe even
later you know maybe once normies come in and these wide
receivers fall a little bit, could be a 10th 11th guy maybe
if we're lucky. Yeah, other things I'll point
out here mix in, we've already sort of talked through him.
He's up big, you're no longer getting like Huge sort of
suspension risk discount on Mixon, he's up, 17 spots to 64.
Overall. I expect that to keep keep going
up until we get bad news for him.
I think people are sort of baking and Status Quo is he'll
he'll be back. So I'm good with them at that
price. A tear of the water severs at
the one to turn our all up, Amon-Ra Devante, Garrett Wilson.
I think that's simply a product of Jonathan Taylor falling.
In which we talked about. So those guys are all just sort
of taking a spot all up a little bit, I don't think any
necessarily storylines to cover their one of the guys want to
talk about Chris Godwin. I think like these these bucks
wide receivers. It's a little bit like Amari
Cooper last year. We're like you could listen 2:00
of fantasy football podcast. No one wanted to talk about,
Amari Cooper last year, just like slip through the cracks God
wouldn't Evans are getting a little bit of that treatment so
far this year, like, I think Godwin is going behind Smith and
jinpa. Yeah.
So on what did give the sort of Life Smith in Juba?
No duties, Kris gartland, I don't want anything to do with
the books offense. Man, it's to suffice exception.
I'm going in, I want to go on with Mike Evans, give me a guy
can do it in like two Targets. Leave this guy.
Oh, it's got a bar in it. I was going to put the Oklahoma
helmet on, and I was gonna do a whole bit as Baker Mayfield, but
now I can't because it's got its got like a strap on the inside
of it. I think so, I don't know, like,
Like, Ken Baker, be that bad with use.
When another friend is last year, settle down rain this
week. She was playing for the Carolina
Panthers. Terrible wasn't horrendous, Sam.
Donald Sam. Donald was totally fine.
That's why it's going to be some that the great Beast.
He's got the greatest army in the history of the 49ers
organization so kind of its Baker.
I'm gonna pull it up on the EPA. I mean he was he was fucking
her. Horrible last year they guy and
you go into this with you was horrible.
Yeah. And like I do not, who is even
their offensive coordinator because I did, they get rid of
life which is it still left, which I think it's still a
flitch. I'll check that left, which was
kind of he was he got exposed last year, they were doing
really bad stuff. Like they were running on a ton
of first downs. I had a horrendous Run game,
super low EPA per play. You know, white was not
effective as a rusher for net was not effective as a rusher.
Sure, but they kept doing it. The cat is that and then I, I
got interrupt you quickly. Offensive coordinator was Dave,
Canales, who just turned Geno Smith and a comeback player of
the year. So though they've hired.
Okay, so, that's how the Seahawks guy.
It's all left. Which so makes me feel that
makes me feel a little better and makes feel a little better.
Yeah. Because left, which was, I mean,
geez. Yeah.
All right. That makes me feel a little bit
better but I mean Baker was was really rough Baker and EPA per
play was the worst in the Tire leak worse than Davis Mills.
Joe Flacco Zach Wilson. I mean, he was, he was sterile,
and that includes is Ram snaps when she was a little bit
better, there's going to be a hilarious guy, starting
quarterback starting at quarterback for the bucks this
year. You're going to see Carson Wentz
in there, you're going to see like I don't know, CJ beathard.
There's I think they're going to be rotating through guys.
Very much like the Rams worth Anna last year.
Sort of like the Panthers were last year I think Baker's making
notes in my notebook, right? Right now.
Oh yeah, I don't know. And this is we gotta get like,
are, you know, once per episode. Let's get Hayden on to explain
how tradable Chris Godwin's contract is, because that's what
I wanted and like is their legitimate chance that Godwin or
Evans get moved at this point. Because I think if there's a
chance then that actually meaningfully like impacts how I
think about those guys. But I don't understand.
There's a chance that God when is true.
Then he's a pretty big value, but because I think, if you were
to get traded, given the contract.
Would have to probably be too like a contender.
I basically Imagining the chiefs of my head right now, that's why
I'm excited. That's what I'm thinking, like
the Chiefs and bills, it still feels like, you know, trade
deadline the Chiefs and bills like are trying to counter each
other. Gabe Davis goes down the bills.
Put all their chips in and drills are like, I don't know
why we draft the tight end to play slot receiver.
This is really fucking stupid. Stupid.
Why don't we trade for Chris Godwin?
Who is a slot receiver. That seems way smarter.
Yeah, I can see that. That's that's what I'm trying to
price in, but I don't know man. Like I gotta learn this lesson a
little bit last year with the Seahawks where I was convinced
Gino. Andrew awkward dog.
Shit. I didn't take much Metcalf and
lock it sometimes just like traffic and wide receivers when
they're this cheap and like worry about it later, sometimes
works. So I still like I still like
Godwin. Yeah it is.
Up with like at least met cap and obviously Gino is way better
than we could have. You know, predicted or did
predict last year. And so it didn't really matter
the archetype of the receivers but like, It does concern me
that God willing is going to get there primarily on volume and
when you got it a bad offense, it's like they don't convert
first Dent or don't convert third Downs in two first downs,
they don't sustained drives. Like, they're probably going to
be pretty conservative on offense.
And, I mean, they're still Todd Bowles team.
They're probably going to be pretty run-heavy, although, I
don't know who can run the ball with because White's, it's not
really an early down banger, but whatever.
There's I've just like, I'm going to see how his offense
like really put some points and if I'm going to take a buck, I
prefer Mike Evans because it's like He can still get open deep
and still huge and you know Baker will probably check it up
to him occasionally and maybe he catches some so but I don't
know, I guess I'm could be being too precise.
Like God. One is still really good.
So, Yeah, and he's cheap. Yep, that's fair.
It's certainly the Box. Certainly feel like what could?
What could prepossess people to make Allen Lazard, a Riser.
By the way, I think I'm somewhat, I think I may be a.
So I made the case for Allen Lazard on the show at pick 150.
Let's calm down. Don't don't blame me for this.
I made the case that literally like pick 150.
I liked it, then I don't like it.
Now, I want that. I want that on the record.
I liked it there. 150. There isn't a ton. 140 picks
what we but it's also like. Okay, so the Jets thing this is
actually kind of interesting. The Jets of like come out and
said they're not cutting Corey Davis, which like okay if you
have to come out and say that, like that that probably means
there's a chance. He's getting caught.
Like why are you being so defensive about it?
But like the fact they said that and there's a chance you still
on the team, like what what the hell is this wide receiver
rotation? Like I think Corey Davis is like
a better outside receiver then Lazard.
So if he's on the team, isn't it?
Corey Davis and Garrett Wilson on the outside Lazard playing in
the slot. Like, I don't know this.
This wide receiver room. Like, I don't know how to
project it anymore. Randall, Cobb is gonna probably
play some amount me Cole, Harmon in there for, Gadget stuff like
this, could be a messy rotation. So, with all these moves, I've
been like, less in all Mozart, because my thesis was like,
Davis is caught, I didn't know called was going to be there.
He's going to be like 100% Rao treat guy now.
I'm like, man, I don't know. This could get messy quick.
I don't know if I really if it's worth it, this point.
So curious, if you guys have any thoughts on, like, how does this
Jets wide receiver rotation play out?
It seems Seems really messy right now.
I mean, whoever brought the best donuts and that week to the
meeting. I think it's probably going to
play. I think Garrett Wilson is sort
of immune, they think Darren Wilson will just end up being
fine. But yeah, I think playing time
is basically doled out by like whoever Aaron Rodgers, is least
pissed off about. At any given time?
Yeah. Matt's not even not, even really
being silly. Honestly, I do actually think
that is what dictates it whoever's like willing to listen
to Joe Rogan with their inaudible.
Yeah room whoever was everybody's moon landing,
whoever said he was Packers backup quarterback.
He said the first time he met Aaron Rodgers, he was like
there's some 911 stuff. You should really look into that
was there. Meeting that was their
conversation. That was how he met his back up.
Yeah. How else you guys?
So we're so weird now of his family talks though, I did
mention that Madison Park Hill had a good article on tight ends
and he mentioned how the Conklin in that article and I was kind
of like, I like Conklin. Yeah.
Why am I not drafting conquer Conklin's.
He's starting their right and Rogers tends to throw his tight
end and so maybe that's the answer.
Maybe we get. Get Conklin in the in the
eighteenth round and we get Garrett Wilson in the second
round and that's our Rogers deck.
I like I've been taking a lot of a lot of complan 18th round.
Even without Rogers honestly just like a guy with two to
touch down upside and 18th. Round seems Seems like a pretty
good bet. Van Jefferson is up.
That's Alaska. All throughout here.
I think you should be up, man. It makes sense gonna play a lot.
Yeah, it's a John uses a jumps. This year's a Joan.
Right? I that's what I think.
Honestly, I think that's that's the bet I think he's does have
to dodge like some guys there to do koukin akua.
But like people are hyping, those guys up a little too much
in my opinion. Like I think it's going to be
van and in the scenario I don't I don't hate you like some stew.
Yeah. I like to to but tutus not, I
mean he's a tiny man, he's a rotational player, like he's not
gonna make, there's there's open routes they're like they got rid
of Robinson's. So they have Have to have like
22 can play. He can be there, full time, slot
receiver, you know, of Cups, you know, kicking to the outside or
whatever, which it is. This makes tutus life tough
because because, you know, the cups of good in the slot.
So yeah, it's like he's not there, they're starting outside
wide receiver into wide. Receiver sets been Jefferson is
and you know three wide receiver sets of in Jefferson's gonna be
one of those guys. Like almost certainly he would
really have to fall on his face but he was he was a second-round
pick and he's been like Not good at any point but like not
horrendous. So I think he's I think he's out
there. Yeah.
That just person in 2021 year the Rams won the Super Bowl 800
yards, six touchdowns mean that's that's a smash of a
ticket yet 180 and I think that was with him being a clear wide
receiver three, they had Robert Woods there so there's even
upside for a bigger role than back then, so I like the pic
quite a bit. It's certainly not sexy, but I
do think The Rams are one of these offenses.
I think I forgot to coined this term but like Carnival offense a
team that's not that good of an offense but as just a dog shit
defense and has to throw a ton I think McVeigh could just like if
a soup this is a big. If like if Stafford's health is
okay I think like you could see the Rams like lead the league in
pass attempts. All up Brady last year on the
box like not be that efficient but just passed a shit ton.
Some of these tertiary guys are going to have some value.
So I kind of like these like Gross Rams, Stacks late.
It's right in article that I'm that I just got out this morning
was supposed to be an article about Stafford.
That's how I that's how I started down the rabbit hole and
kind of one eye. And I'm going to end up kind of
writing the articles that led me to the tight end article
eventually. But yeah it started as like I'm
stacking backdoor stacking with Matthew Stafford, a lot and he
does strike me as the type of bet in those late rounds.
That makes sense because like, You can take him as your second
quarterback and be done, which is, I think what you want to do
generally in the late round, if you're going to be diving into
the late rounds of quarterback, like you want a guy who actually
can start all year for you, and give you a little bit of upside
as a pocket passer. You know, that he generates a
well time Spike week, like Stafford, just like really
shouldn't be there. I kind of love getting him in
the 14th. Like, and then, and then it's
beautiful because you can get, And 22 and hickey.
They all go behind him so you can backdoor, stack it so
easily. Yeah, I love them all in.
On that on that ramp stack, I honestly should be doing it more
man. Like the ramp, I don't know,
this is a stupid point, but the Rams won the Super Bowl two
years ago Stafford through for nearly 5,000 yards and 14
touchdowns. Like sometimes, it's as simple
as that you showed us that ceiling two years ago again,
obviously in my projecting do that this year.
No. Like I get why it's cheaper but
it's gone. Too far.
I think well. So like the late-round
quarterback strategy which you know this is best ball so we're
not we're not doing that anyway. But also you know the emergence
of this like Hyper Elite tier of quarterbacks is kind of shaken
up, the quarterback field. But you know, a lot of the
reason that the late Ron quarterback strategy was
working. So well, in previous years is
that we can't predict passing efficiency.
That's like what JJ is a Creations talked about, you
know, it's like if you're betting on like if you're taking
the pocket passer, who just is coming off a really efficient
passing season and letting the pocket passer who had a down
season Fall that traditionally is not like been a great way to
go. And I think like with a guy like
to, you know, he's got that he's got the weapons like I'm kind of
in on that but like, I mean, Davis, I don't wanna upset you
here. But like would you be shocked if
Stafford threw for more yards and deck press guy?
I would be a little surprised because the weapons are the
cupboard is fairly bare, maybe just for a cookout.
Yeah. I mean he does so now Mike
McCarthy running 30 times a game too.
So yeah, I know. I mean, it could happen.
It's possible, it's unlikely, but I'm kind of with you pal.
Like, it's not create again, Stafford, two years ago.
We were drafting them. What in the 90s last year?
I don't know if his ceiling is being like a to a type, just an
elite pocket pass. Yeah, you're right, right.
You're getting an eighth round, ninth round value in the 13th
14th round, which is 0. a pretty big win, especially because The
way I like to build a staffers at, he's my second quarterback
and I'm done like I, you know, I can not always do this.
Like, maybe I would tack on another guy or add.
Stafford is a third but that's part of the appeal for me is
that I feel like I can build with him almost like last year,
right? You might have taken Stafford in
the eighth or ninth. I mean, stat, that's the funny
thing right. Stafford wasn't really going
that far behind back. That's one of the reasons I
mentioned it because it's like really like last year we
wouldn't have thought that was crazy at all.
And, you know, now it seems This impossibility because Stafford
Had a Bad season. But if you last year were to
take like Stafford in the ninth and you know, Aaron Rodgers in
the tenth or whatever. Maybe eighth ninth depending I
think that might have actually been more like the ATP but you
would have been very comfortable stopping it to and now you know
you can basically do it the same but just a few rounds later.
So yeah, makes sense. Yeah, time to get kretsch to
tout van Jefferson. Yeah.
The talking for 20 minutes on Van.
Jefferson was very intentional with Gretsch out tonight.
This is only way would be able to do this, but let's move on to
the fallers. Hear some obvious ones that I
don't. Think need to talk through,
because they're just frankly, so obvious Ken, Walker falling.
Tyler our Jailer Falling Again, Jameson Williams Falling Again,
joshjpalmer Falling. Again, Dawson Ox falling.
Again, it's really sort of obvious to me why all these guys
are falling. They all sort of had guys,
drafted ahead of them that are pushing them down, besides,
besides Taylor, but we've already talked through that.
I think the one I do want to talk about is Montgomery.
We talked about Gibbs. I do think that like Detroit is
just in a position. They did this last year where so
many of the points on this offense are going to funnel to
the running backs, both through the passing game, you know,
rushing at the goal line. Where do we think Davis
Montgomery, ultimately Falls? And are you interested in if
like, say Falls like pick 100, is more sort of like a 0, RB
Target. Like are you interested just
because the upside of that offense you know you got the
contingent belly teachers becomes he becomes like a
handcuff guy with a little bit of Standalone value.
They're like yeah I become interested there what at this
price, not so much. I am starting to get interested
in Kenny Walker though. Now at 46 running back.
Teen, that feels the palatable to me.
Yeah, I've started. I've taken him once he fell all
the way into the fifth and that's kind of what what I think
he is now. I think he's more like a fifth
round value like but in early but in early fifth round value
and so yeah if he's like at the 45 turn I feel pretty confident
taking him. Yeah he definitely profile like
at that point you just need a couple big spike weeks really
for him to pay off and that's exactly profiles as like bad
success rate but huge break away.
Are so yeah, I think he's I think is fall.
Should stop soon. We'll see.
He might, I thought I was definitely under wait on him,
but his fall has been a lot more rapid than I expected.
So we'll see where that ends up any other followers here.
I honestly think this is in the most exciting to talk to because
it's so obvious. But anyone want to talk through
any of these players I mean, they're just all sort of
reactions. A Leisure obvious Palmer,
obvious gained a lot. Like, it's just exactly what
you'd expect. Yeah, I'm taking out your at
this point though. I think he's a handcuff.
He's a clear handcuffed and you know they're going to run enough
to where he'll actually get a little bit of run.
You know, it's not a great like he's probably Gus Edwards from
two years ago. Like it's not, you know, a great
pick at that level but I've mixed him in into rooms where
I'm like, I think you'll I think, you'll like score
touchdown in the first three weeks.
You know, something. Get me, get me a little
production out. Me long, and you have contingent
value. So, maybe I just like my former
line backers too much, but I'm starting to make some in now
that he's down the 150s. This is a deep cut, but because
I've been doing some of these 20 rounds stuff like I've
Cordarrelle Patterson staring at me in the 20th round on PR sites
like because it lasts he's got cap casualty and go somewhere
where he just gets ya sick design.
Is upside. That's kind of what I like.
Could you do like a McKinnon type B?
Roll. I got he's like a Ian McKinnon
isn't completely Fair. He's actually kind of more of a
pure rusher than McKinnon but I don't know man.
I just feels like he has outs. It also is like Atlantis.
Pass-catching core is like name Atlanta's water Seaver, three.
You can't like could Patterson gets slot, snaps in that
offense, I don't know. Like I've been thinking about
him is like an 18th round pick just because like I think he's
still good at football and like, Can you use some spikes?
But maybe that's overthinking it with us 32 years old.
So that's obviously a huge issue, but he is an amazing kick
returner and so that could save him.
You know, if he's on the one, it's probably reason that they
would keep him, he only cost like five mil five and a half
mil. Yeah.
So it might, they might keep him just for the fact, he's such a
good kick returner Which means it would be active on game day
though. That's something an active game
day. Like, has contingent value as a
running back, plus could either slot wide receiver, I don't
know. I've been 20, this is like no
one cares about talking about Cordarrelle Patterson right now,
but I think 20th round he's like, somewhat interesting.
I really pity as those 28 rounders.
You can get them in there. Yeah.
After I take my third kicker, I'll take Cordarrelle Patterson
answer together. Here's the kicker Indy.
Surrender. Yeah.
Okay let's let's move on. I do want to talk through some
of these other things quickly. The team stack stuff that I
think is more interesting is actually.
So this is the double stack, I'll skip past this but I do
want to talk about like the mega stack stuff where we've talked
about this all offseason the bills and the Chiefs when you
look at it from Team level ATP so this is average of the top
five guys on a team by ATP. The Chiefs and the bills stand
out as discounts relative to how like we know Mahomes and Josh
Allen their locks for top Three top for quarterback play in the
NFL like if they're healthy like pretty much lock them in.
But the teams are still pretty cheap like they're cheaper than
the Lions, the Vikings, the Jags.
And I think part of me like that, that feels wrong and
that's why you see the rise of guys like Sky, you know, Kincaid
at cetera. So I'm like, I don't know.
Again, I think I'm kind of like beating a dead horse with this
point a little bit, but like I just this kind of breaks my
brain a little bit. We're like, we don't want her to
go. Yeah.
But they got to go somewhere, right?
I'll tell you. One thing is I think both Bills
running backs are really interesting.
Yeah. You know I think the take him
together to you probably can but but it strikes me like you know,
and it's funny because one of the situations that has turned
out to be like a real Zero running back win has been the
bills backfield in the past and now we have like you know the
exact Moss them and Singletary Year from like two years ago
where they We're going like, basically both right here.
And I think you want to be overweight.
Both these guys with the understanding that one of them
is probably going to bust, but that's all right, you know?
Because I think one of them could be a total smash.
I like cook a little bit better. So, does the market Damien,
Harris has moved up enough to where I don't like love taking.
I think I took a man attempted a, I don't love that.
I wish she was more like a 11th or 12th but, you know, I'm still
taking him so, That's one way to get more exposure to this
offense. Where, yeah, there's uncertainty
but the uncertainty could like really break in your favor.
We're like, I don't know. Cleo secures things are going to
Rick really break in his favor, or is he going to be kind of a
rotational player? Well that definitely that helps
answer the Dalton Kincaid question.
Yeah, and I think my favorite, you know, my favorite bill, but
I bill, whose value, I like, like Hardy was signed to decent
money and I think like has a decent chance of being their
water Seaver, three and he's completely free now.
I like you shut up a little after they sign them but people
I think are just got got bored of that idea.
He was an exciting deep threat for the Saints a couple years
ago. I kind of like I like that 18th
round pick in Bill Stacks just Completely for free, you might
be in their number three, wide receiver, who knows?
It is a little tough because we don't know if he's even going to
like play. But I, I took them today, I
think it was today. I took him recently, I was
because I was taking them a lot before and then I think the
markets cooled because of the Kincaid pick a little bit.
Maybe? Yeah.
Yeah, but he's a, I believe. He's another returner.
Yeah, he's averaged 25. Point four yards per kick return
over his career which is really good 75 kick returns.
No. Sorry.
That's his longest. What does he?
Yeah, so no 75 kick returns, never scored.
A touchdown for summary upon return as well as he's.
Okay. So that again, like we're
looking for guys who are going to be active on game day, we're
down this late and I think he probably will be Yeah, that
that's fair since all these things, we've said before, San
Francisco, too low. So I kind of get that in some
ways. Josh says it's inverse is just
too low, but man like the quarterback uncertainty is the
reason that's so low. I think frankly, Lance is like
falling Purdy's. Not that expensive.
And to me you made this point Pat like guessing at
quarterback. And being wrong.
Hurts. You a ton, what?
Whereas, I'm not. So sure that it helps you at on
if you get that one, right? So unless search freelance and
he finishes quarterback 5, that would help help.
You know. It's funny though.
He probably doesn't help at all. Yeah, yeah, probably.
Well, if you start, I think one of the things that was
interesting to me, I was looking at the, I dug into this last
year with the rookie class being so.
So Ich and was like, I kind of was like, trying to talk myself
into Malik Willis and I couldn't do it because I was like, even
like Josh Allen had kind of whatever win rates in his rookie
season. So it's like about and Allen
started. Like who is it?
Basically any of these guys weren't starting are costing you
a lot because You really. I mean you definitely don't want
to did roster spot when you're entering the playoffs, but if
you're burning that roster spot on a quarterback which doesn't
give your team a ton of upside and then they're not even on the
field just really hurts you. So I think even if Lance like
did emerge wouldn't it be down the stretch?
Or is you think he would have to take the job for the whole
season? Any of these guys probably take
the job for pretty much all season to really pay off is my
think if you're going to do the Lansing, you do like a weird
kind of three quarterback Bill, where you completely upon
quarterback and the. You take like staff Alfred,
Lance and howl or insert late quarterback that you like there,
something like that combo. So he's in a 3qb build and maybe
you have Stafford shielding him for most of the Season,
something like that. Seems Seems okay.
I don't think that's my preferred way to play it, but I
think. Yeah, I think you kind of have
to take Lansing three quarterback builds, which, like
immediately limits sort of how I think if you're doing it.
Just just like go balls to the wall and go like Josh Allen
Lance. Just feel like I barely going to
need you please. There, when I do I guess that's
fair to. I was thinking you want the two
other guys to balance them out, like not playing covering the
bye week, right? That's fair to, I think that's
that's reasonable. These are the cheap teams we've
kind of made this point. I think there's some cheap teams
with upside if they're just okay and not horrible.
Yeah the Patriots. I'll make a quick case for the
Patriots. They were able to have Matt
picture, she had doing architecture office.
Okay. Let's move on.
Okay, that's that's entire case. But they were they were a top 10
scoring offense in 2020. Yeah 2020.
Believe in Mac Jones for dead man.
I attacked him on as a third quarterback.
I guess. The only thing with him is like
do you buy that? He's at risk of, losing his job
to Billy's a p. In which case he's a terrible
pick, if he's if he has job security, Then I think he's a
pretty decent pic. It's not a great pic.
Yeah, That's the thing. I've been stacking the Patriots
without Mac because that's probably the way to go.
Yeah that's because upper yeah if we get if we get to September
and it's a good it's a good backdoor stack though.
If you got an expensive team, if you have them a homes or Hertz
or an allen you can do Georgie get locked out you can do
kiseki. Yeah.
Thornton sitting right there. You can get Thornton very
easily. Hunter Hunter, Hunter Henry and
and get sticky is a little bit like the knocks Kincaid thing.
Hunter Henry is there starting tent-like?
People are yes. Wrong Hunter Henry's.
I agreed and like I don't get too sticky like 40 picks out of
Hunter. Henry.
Just, we just did this. You're drafting jaanu again.
Congratulations to draft a big dummy.
You're Drafting jaanu and the only like, if you're talking
self the story where he's the big slot again, you're telling
yourself the Kincaid story, it's not a story that happens very
often. He's going to be he's going to
be a 50% route guy in this offense or something like that.
Yeah. Hey mi Madness, not guys.
Entire career, he's never done anything.
How mad are people going to be when Jeremy Smith scores more
have PPR points than Kyle pits this season?
This is grow, I'm mad at you. Like what that means?
Would that be the worst thing? Arthur Smith has ever done.
I don't know, whatever it upset my night, who's the guy that
week after child, sleep my co-workers, Michael prugh.
It had more touchdowns last season.
The carpets has in his career. Come on.
Davis, Davis is tired and wants to go to bed.
He's trying to sabotage, mr. Harvey, I don't know, I don't
know if I have the energy for a. He did running back for
Slaughter Seaver debate now. Let's do it.
I want it. Let's let's do you want to do
it? Yeah, I thought this is the
whole night. I've been sitting here, waiting.
All you about running backs and you tell me about like fucking
Kenneth game. I'm walls falling.
Like we're talking about move, an Jefferson versus poo kokua
for 20 minutes. Yeah, I want this running back
debate. I'm all geared up for it.
Okay, let me lay you lay the guards.
Actually, think we might agree too much.
So you give me some things to disagree with because I think we
generally might agree. Some okay.
Okay. So what this chart is is
basically you look at the blue lines that is what the ADP was.
Last year for these different positional tears.
So look at quarterback one. We see that.
Blue line is around 65 70, 80 P. That means the average
quarterbacks 1 through 12 last year, we're going out around
pick 70 this year. We see that black line
quarterbacks are going at around pick 50 quarterbacks 1 through
12. So that's how you read this
chart. It's look at the different
positional Tears by ATP and the shifts from last year to this
year. So you see quarterbacks that
that black line is below the blue line.
That means quarterbacks are more expensive than they were last
year. Running backs.
You see the blue line below the black line.
That means that wide receivers are sorry running backs are
cheaper than they were last year, so that's going to read
this chart. I want to zoom in actually, take
out some of the the deeper stuff I'm taking out the tight end to
is whatever. This is just sort of the the
tears, We Care a little bit more about it.
Yes, this is quarterback ones. Running back ones.
Running back to the threes wide receiver ones water, super two
and three is and tight ends. So same chart, I'm just sort of
zooming in a little bit. The biggest thing you'll notice
in the draft landscape, this year, compared to last year is
the quarterbacks are going much more expensive.
The running backs are going much cheaper, and the wide receiver
ones are going more expensive. Not, not the wide receiver twos,
and threes, just sort of the wide receiver ones are actually
going more expensive compared to last year.
And I think I think honestly and I wish I had the chart to pull
up but I think drafters are kind of learning the wrong lessons
from last year in terms of how scoring went running back ones,
who are now going at, pick 20 by 80 tea, instead of water Seaver
one. So we're going to pick 10
running back. One's actually out performed
wide receiver wants in terms of delivering Spike weeks at the
running back position. We're running backs.
Really got hammered is the running back twos and threes
called. Absolutely.
By the wide receiver twos, and threes.
So I think, like an appropriate reaction to that should have
been to basically keep the running back.
One's priced where they are, maybe slightly cheaper, I'd be
okay with that. But what people are doing now is
essentially saying wide, receiver ones are much better
bets for Spike weeks than running back ones by ATP.
Like it's a huge gap. Like average of 1080p for water,
super one's average of 20 ATP for running back ones like
that's a big gap. That's why we see you know,
Ramon Dre, going near K Medcalf and my opinion.
That's like insane. You know, Josh shakeups going
next to you Higgins and my opinion like that that's just
wrong. So I think that's my argument is
that like I'm totally with you, like wide receiver, heavy
builds, but to me, we're punishing the running back ones
when we shouldn't be, and they're sort of this Elite tier
of running backs where if you don't get them, I don't think
you can match their ceiling and I think people just don't want
to admit that. You know, you're running back
works. It's not because these running
back ones, don't have massive ceiling and aren't sort of
efficient by ATP. Like, we've seen that for
several years, that if you want upside at running back, like,
get one or two of these, these high up, Cedric, hi upside
running back. So, that's how I kind of relate
if you landscape. That was a lot Pat, rewrite,
that we sort of agree more than we disagree or well, I think we
agree in that. Like if you're sitting at the
105 and I had peed on legendary upside podcast earlier this
week, and he was making a point the like, His the comfiest spot
in the draft right now is like you know 104 105 you grab like
Tyree kill and then you can get like Tony Pollard and reminder
Stevenson or Tony Pollard and Josh Jacobs or Bruce Hall Bruce
Hall comes back in the mid third.
I mean like I don't have I think I feel like there's like so much
agreement on that but I'm surprised it's still happening
because that is really comfy. You just grab grab that wide
receiver one and then yeah, you can get the running back.
In round two and three. I think the thing maybe that we
disagree on some what is like that?
Like I probably doing more of the one version.
One running back version of that like I'll often take like I'll
do a lava if I'm further up like if I'm out of the like let's say
102 or 103 and a lot of these there aspetta mean it's
obviously if I have McCaffrey but let's say I had like Jamar
Chase grab a Lobby and then I'm like I know there's me a running
back here. I like that part.
I'm not worried about what I'm worried about is, I don't really
want to go running back running back right now and the reason is
that I don't want to ever get locked out a wide receiver.
And in these rooms you can get like really locked out, you can
piece it together. Like I had one where I had like
three wide receivers. I think through like eight
rounds and tacked on like kind of a guy who didn't really
belong like it maybe in the ninth or tenth and then I got
like Nico Collins and Alec Pearson, you know, I probably
took Mingo or whatever like you could, I'm like I have to dig
out of this hole but like that's a spot that I like, rarely want
to be in. And I think that that is
partially. What's driving?
The atp's? In the early rounds is that I
think drafters. Generally like feel really
comfortable taking running backs in rounds like 8 9, 10, 11 12,
and you'll see like in these drafts the whole board will be
green. And anytime I get to that pocket
of the draft, I want to be ready to go at running back.
I want to be like hell, yeah. I sigh my whole draft is set up
to just take three of these dudes and this draft felt me
beautifully, a lot of the drafts of all that way and so I guess
like I would sort of, I kind of pushed back on the idea that At
like, this is somehow like that or inefficient, I don't know
that it is necessarily an efficient.
Once you consider how the rest of the draft is going to play
out as a result of the wide receivers continually kind of
being they're priced up early and then they're not there's not
a discount later. And so it just creates this
massive Cliff at wide receiver and I think you're really a
disadvantage. If you aren't, you know,
sufficiently loaded up before. That Cliff hit.
So while I do think that the two three turn and the I mean, it's
beyond the turn, it's a middle of the third round, you're going
to be running backs, like really good running backs, that's
definitely something you want to be taking advantage of for sure.
But I don't think it's something to be like I'm throwing out
everything else in this is I'm just focusing on this because I
think if you if you build your all your drafts around that
you're you're going to get really really burned in some of
them but you're probably doing that more than me.
So I don't know. Are you, are you finding that?
So I'll say a couple things number one.
The reason why I think it's okay to like just completely zero in
on that and ignore everything else is because I'd like we
showed at the top of the show. I do think this ATP is going to
correct. Pollard is going to be a mid s
pick. Jacobs is going to be a mid
second pick if you want these wide receiver running back
running back combos, I don't think you're maybe in these piss
blood drafts repeats Drafting and all summer.
Maybe you can get those whenever he wants.
I kind of by that he will. But but in a normal in a normal
draft, you're not going to get those also, that's what I'm
saying. Like I'm doing, probably 25, I
actually have inserted drafting table for the schedule, but when
I do start drafting, I'm probably doing like twenty five
drafts in June or something. I'm probably like at at you know
picks one through five. I'm doing that wide receiver,
running back running back thing as much as I can then like
hundred percent of the time if the room allows me to because I
have a strong belief that that ADP is not going to hold Jacobs.
In the third round is not going to hold or Mantra it pick DEC 30
2013 11. So that's the first thing I'll
say I do agree with you though that like part of the element,
right? Is like if you don't take wide
receivers early like I'm certainly not advocating for
like if I go running back running back early I'm not
tacking on like another running back in the 4th or like I'm not
really searching out another running back in the fifth or
sixth like I am playing it, how you're describing it.
Where, you know, I take those two running backs and rounds two
and three. I'm waiting until that round 9
through 12 range. And I'm probably taking like two
guys in that range, right? So I'm still feel like I'm
getting The Sweet Spot. You know nice to 12th round
running back range. Like I'm still getting a couple
of those guys and those drafts and them like either I'm
stopping or maybe I'm tacking on for net, as a fifth running back
in the 18th or something like that, right?
So, you know, I just think that people are, oh, I think people
are galaxies branding, like, oh, you know, and not to pick on
people, but I watch his streams lot, obviously super sharp.
But like, what I see him, do a lot of the Return is like oh
like the 2 by 2. If I take a lava here that I can
still get like Ramon Dre in the third and like I kind of get
that line of thinking about like some people are almost
pretending like you can't just go running back in the two three
turn and I'm not saying that's what Pete's doing.
I'm not trying to like set up some straw man for now, but I
think a lot of people are over thinking that when like
comparing and I pulled up this chart here, like comparing
running back ones. Like you know, Jacobs is like
the running back eight or something versus like T Higgins.
Just Historically, that running back.
One bet is just such a higher bet for a spike week than that
wide receiver to bet particularly like the wide
receiver to who's the water secret to on his own team.
That's a whole other topic but like, man, I think you're
overthinking it a little bit. If you're like doing that like
odd like on might be locked down in the seventh or eighth like
I'm just doing like hey water it I'm taking you know Cooper cop
I'm taking two running backs. I think I can take three wide
receivers in the next four or five rounds and like Bok Bok,
I'm not That worried about it when like, I think that just
like Pollard verse T Higgins, like met kafirs from entree.
Like, it's just such an obvious like ceiling projection of one
guy is like so much better than the ceiling projection of
another guy, like, in my opinion and how I look at things that
like, I'm just not overthinking it that much, especially when I
think the ADP landscape is going to be changing.
So, does that. Does that make sense?
Yeah, no, I think it makes sense.
I think one thing for me is like, you know, it makes it a
little more difficult is I think, McAndrews is a really
strong value right now. I think I don't want to be
completely locked out of the elite quarterbacks and so that's
like one reason that I'm not just absolutely hammering kind
of wide receiver running back running back starts.
But I think that's, you know, the fact that the 80 I do feel
pretty strongly that the atp's are going to shift.
I don't. Maybe I wouldn't be like shocked
if these guys like stuck a little later than we had
projected to begin the show. Show.
But Bruce Hall is either going to be like a seventh-round pick
or a late second round pick. Right?
Like we're going to feel good or bad about his knee.
I don't think he's going to be in the mid third form.
Andre, it does seem really surprising that he's in the mid
third so I think I would like it if you have the chance to go
wide receiver Pollard running back, something like that.
I mean that's probably not going to be around later.
So I think I'm like maybe a little bit less excited about
the prospect of of loading up on that like on a like a really
high percentage of my team's but It's a weird constructions, not
construction. I've ever really done much of,
and I'm doing it a fair amount. So, you know, I think largely,
we're on the same page, that it's definitely like an offering
that the market is providing right now.
That is not common and yep. It gives a lot of upsides of the
bill. Yeah, I want to, I know, we're
keeping Davis up and I'll continue this conversation if
you want. But let's, let's let Davis get
out of here. Davis give us give us.
You don't have to be long. Give us your Sat p-value before
you go, if you got one top of mind, I'm going to let you go to
bed. Chris, God, one God, one Baker,
Mayfield, stocks, baby, beautiful.
I'll see you guys soon. See you Davis.
Pat's your point, okay? I get what you're saying.
And like if I had to commit to again, if I had to commit to
100% of my team's being wide receiver running back running
back. Now I would not do that but
again, like I think I'm no, no. I'm just saying that's what I'm
doing. Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, that's what I'm saying is like I really think these
combos. Like there's going to be a
window once we know week 17 and like before this ATP changes, I
think it's going to be kind of a tight window where you can get
these type of It's in. And I just think that like there
to how I look at things and like, how the mass shakes out of
store Oakley. Like, I know, we don't always
agree in all those things but, like, all right, I think you'd
agree with me right that like, ceiling, projection like Ramon
drabers like decayed Metcalf. Like is that even close for who
has the higher ceiling? No, I think from Madras, got a
higher ceiling, for sure. Yeah.
And like I yeah, I think one of the things though is that like
This a teepee environment. Is creating at a pocket of value
at running back later in the draft.
And when things shift, it will also shift the other pockets of
the draft so that, you know, you're going to be potentially
in a situation where there isn't that massive massive Cliff at
wide receiver and later in the summer taking an early round
running back actually in some ways feels more comfortable, you
know, at least it's somewhat Unlike me, who's thinking about
what my wide receiver 5 is going to look like in the in the
second round. So like that part of it, you
know? And to be honest, I think that
is an advantage of drafting right now.
Like, I think, you know, getting like I want to be overweight on
the James Cook's and the Zach charbonnet is like, I think
Zach's harmonies are really. He's a second-round running back
with sighs. You know, when a team likes to
run the ball, I know kind of Walker's there but like it's,
yes. Changes bad is a guy who you
know kind of Walker. Misses two games, I think
charbonnet is really nice, you know I think there's a lot of
guys in that range that I do like taking so and and guys who
I like taking and then I feel like my overall team strength.
Is pretty nice like where if you're going to do a two V two.
And I know you wouldn't like necessarily do this because you
could be taking a quarterback in the ninth round.
You know, if you went wide receiver running back running
back but the wide receivers available in the ninth round
generally suck. You know where the tenth round
it really sucks and so yes I'm giving up some projection in the
1 V 1 in that early round if I'm not taking you know, reminder
Stephenson for DK. Mecca, which would probably be
the most extreme example. I'm like wait, I didn't include
DK Metcalf in my top 36. I think she's like, yeah, but
it's extreme but like let's say Debo Samuel like Debo same overs
from Andre like but I'm not, you know, I could talk myself into
Debo, you know, I could I could talk myself in there because I'm
going to be able to get a running back later and I'm going
to be able to get, you know, a few running.
But it's not just like one dude who I'm like hoping he falls is
like it's a its fertile ground in that pocket of the draft.
And That also does strike me as something that may be part of
the drafting landscape in. May, it might not be, we might
not feel as good about that pocket partially because we'll
get more information about which one's of those were not as good
bets as we thought and which were really good bets.
But yeah, that's kind of, like, one of the overall reasons that
I'm kind of like, you know, sometimes I'll skip, but I
here's our say I'm ahem. I am going 0 running back a lot
less than I'm used to. I did.
Add 10 running back. Drafted a that was pretty fun.
I got Rashad, why does my rb1 I think I could delete leak
quarterback and delete tight end which is kind of, you know how I
got there. But but maybe that's like
another caveat to all this stuff is that normally you might just
do a traditional 0 running back build in this ATP environment
you probably want to be going like at least one Elite onesie
if you're doing Zero running back because the running back
value that you're passing on a really strong, you want to be
hammering people. At a different position or than
just wide receiver. Yeah, that that makes sense.
And yeah, I think we agree on like the different groupings of
like, when to Target guys, like I have no pushback on that
running back range. There's a lot of guys.
I certainly like in there and and like I said, I'm mixing.
I'm, you know, when I do these Waters to be running back
running back builds. I'm targeting to you guys and
that range, I still think that's like a fair allocation of
running back draft Capital, but I see what you're I see what
you're saying. Some extent, I guess, for me,
it's just that like I am like so and watch me wrong, you're wrong
about this but like I am so confident that these running
back atp's in the third round are not going to hold whereas
like I am not that confident about some of these running
backs in that range like you know, sharpen a I could see the
story for charbonnet going up. I can see the story for
charbonnet going down, I can see the story for Madison going up.
I can see the story of Imagine going down, like for me, it's a
little bit like, yes, I know, some of these guys will go down,
some will go up, but it's just so clear and obvious to me that
likes Some of these running back atp's are wrong and just on the
focus of getting like closing line value, getting a
diversified portfolio at good prices to me.
It just seems like I don't know. Like it's not like this hasn't
happened before last year. Sake, One Berkeley.
Thanks Mom was on the two. Three turn to start.
Yeah, people were so down on him because got injured the year
before he was the to, or who are you targeting?
Like if you're because there's so many of these guys and I
think it's honestly if there was just like one dude, if it was
Jacob's, he would We have moved up, but it's the fact that you
like, it's like, I don't need to decide and so I don't see the
side. Then, why am I deciding now?
Because I might as well take the wide receiver or the
quarterback. I'm not gonna be a little
getting third round. You who are you, who are you
targeting of this group's? So my favorite targets are so
I'd say there's a total of six running backs that go in this
range. Chub Pollard Henry Jacobs briefs
and Ramon Dre. The four guys I've been taking
the most are chub Pollard Jacobson dream.
Andre skipping on Breeze is purely, just like the injury
thing where I think there's a chance it could get worse before
it gets better, but I'm actually revisiting that.
I think I'm going to like mix them in.
I think Greece might be the guy if you can get if you want to
talk about upside. Yeah.
Healthy. I mean, he is Between the
legendary upside screener, that I that I have.
He's the top guy in it. He's ahead of me every in it.
He's 20. I guess he's going to turn might
have already turned 22. Oh no.
He's too, he's about to turn 22. He he's got the size.
He was used on the goal line. He was super efficient on the
ground last year at 2.00 yards per hour on which is the highest
of any running back here. These are all career numbers and
he was a rookie so that I'll come down a bit but that's like
higher than Macau. A 1.92, awesome.
Number rush, yards, over expected was really high 16.
That's super good office is about to improve.
I mean, it's like all therefore briefs he is like the archetype
of the legendary running back, except he's coming off a torn
ACL. So, yeah, that's literally the
only thing right now. I'm totally with you.
And it's also like you mentioned all those stats, like not not
landing spot, like Aaron Rodgers running backs.
Have always put up a shit. A fancy white.
Sometimes it's been split up between a couple guys and like
we haven't had, you know, the truly elite elite Seasons but
you know, if you combined are in Jones and Jamaal Williams
numbers you can buy and Dylan and Aaron Jones numbers.
Like, you'd be looking at some real elite running back season.
So I love the situation he's in, I love the Talon for me, for me,
it's simply been the mental block of like, I like all these
guys a lot. Sure if briefs was healthy, he
had be my favorite of the group but like that, that injury
concern is in the back of my head.
You saw I'll do that. Like I think I should be, I
should be mixing him in at the same rate as these other guys.
Like this took a turn, I didn't expect that.
I would be talking you into a running back but let me let me
just let me sell this a little more because I talked about the
pocket of the drafts later and you're saying you like to go
wide receiver running back running back and then do running
backs in that. Like late single-digit.
Early double-digit pocket. I mean, in that, in that pocket,
you've got James Connors at, pick 82.
Dave Montgomery pick 86. Brian Robinson.
Is it pick 107, Brian Robinson is a starting NFL running back.
Who I like Rollins his team doesn't hate.
They hate the guy. They hate Antonio Gibson.
We know that they like Brian Robinson, like if you need it,
you know, Alexander Madison is pretty interesting in that
Richard Penny. Although he's a bit more risky
in terms of what his actual role would be, but I think Decent bet
for early season production. Damien Harris, pretty good pep,
early-season production. So there's like lots of dudes
like Connor going, that late, and Brian Robinson going that
late in particular jump out to me is like, I mean, let's say,
let's say you don't get it in good with Bruce Hall and then
third round ends up being like two rounds to expensive, like,
okay, well, you know what, there's not that many guys in
third round, I really like Anyway, hero.
And so I think you could act like maybe you could be okay if
he misses like week one and two. And then he comes back and he's
healthy, and he's amazing and you didn't get any good with the
clothesline value, but he does give you some upside with the
closing line value to. Because if we're always here,
positive, Words. Yeah, and so now you're looking
at a guy who's maybe maybe you got a full round and it's so
easy to fill in the early season production at running back right
now, it's so easy. So to me like, man, that upside,
it's just really hard to not hurt.
I've heard some good push back on just like, hey, man, you're
being too optimistic on a guy, come back from an ACL tear.
So the other thing in this is getting into the weeds of
injury, it was reported that it was a meniscus injury in.
Into the ACL tear. Now, I haven't been able to see
anything on the degree to that meniscus injury, but that's if
you Google Reese, all ACL meniscus, that's how it was
originally reported and those are a little more complicated.
They're not as bad as the Javonte, variety of the Dobbins
variety, but it's been like a little murky reporting on that.
So that's something that's just like, give me like, I don't like
we haven't heard anything yet, but like, could it be worse
than, we know? And, and that's what's up.
Down. But like, yeah, if there's an
archetype of a guy that's going to beat the ACL recovery in one
year, it's certainly Breeze. Any has like he has all the
upside in the world and, you know, I posted a thread on it,
like I believe the argument that like, you know, got you're
taking guys with huge injuries risk or suspension rescue or
whatever. Like, I think, because of the,
how much having dead players hurts?
You, you got to be like a little bit careful about those bets
when the upside isn't there? I use like Rondell Robinson.
Azusa like this, this thread was really good.
You're ready to return thread. Yeah.
Like that's what, like, that's a thing, right?
Like if you're making a guy who's has a high chance of like
I put it in investing terms like a high chance of default.
Giving you zeros, you better be getting like a high upside to
justify how bad that risk of getting zeros is so for with
briefs he's a guy who passes the sniff test for me like he's
certainly he could be the running back one overall like
obviously that's yeah. Yeah, the most likely outcome,
but I don't think it's a crazy thing to say, certainly we, you
know, if he didn't get injured, would be saying that.
I would say, I wanna see if he was healthy.
I think he'd be my running back to.
I think I'd have them had a Bijan.
It was a rookie running back on the Falcons.
Okay? Yeah.
Just the situation for me home down, I said, priests always
healthy, okay? I know, I know we can't say
anything bad about Bijan by like Bruce Hall in his second year
and then Aaron Rodgers offense, totally healthy.
Give you my running back to I mean so I don't know that's just
how I have a have a hard time like knowing how much of the
discount to put on that Edwin. Poorest was saying some good
things about Bruce Hall, believe after maybe one of our ATP
chasing shows but I pulled up his Twitter.
He was saying you know the injury between him and Devonte
is very different from each. Other briefs wasn't complicated,
Javon T's is he said, Week one looks realistic for briefs so
you know, I don't know, you know, more about stuff than I
do, I do, but I know nothing. Yeah.
And again, I think part of the reason, like I just think that,
like, the way I'm thinking about briefs with ACL, that's going to
be in the back of people's heads for a while.
So this is again, I could be wrong about this.
Like my thought is that like, the chub Pollard, Jacobs rise to
the mid-late second. Like that's going to be like,
Liquor whereas like the briefs briefs rise to the second if it
does happen is going to be more like later in the season when we
get good training, camp reports. That's that's right.
Yeah. So that's why I've been like
more. I think like inclined to snap up
those other ones just because I think it's like combos I won't
get later. But yeah I'm gonna start mixing
briefs in and then I guess I should talk about Henry he's the
one guy I'm fading in that range or I guess I'm even saying, like
fading, like, I think I'll click him a little bit in these type
of builds, but it's just the age and the offense concerns.
But again, Derrick Derrick Henry, you know, as made faders
pay for three years in a row. So, if you tell me, he has 18
points per game again this year. Like I'm not going to call you
crazy, but he's been the guy that I'm just less excited about
because of age and offensive situation compared to other
guys. Yeah, me too.
And you'll see. Him there.
He's a guy wish. I could take him like the fourth
or something where it was all upside.
But you know, it is. It's just, I don't know.
I struggle with it. He's 29 years old.
Like it's crazy, it's crazy. Yeah, it's so old for running
back. But it is really old.
He's a he's a unit. He's just such a unicorn though.
He is ideas and I think that like there is something to the
fact that he wasn't, so he wasn't a work.
Horse is first couple years in the league.
I know they had doing weird things with like Dion Lewis
splitting touches with them, was the Workhorse at Alabama.
I don't think he was there. No, he wasn't.
Yeah, there's a bunch of dudes. There's like Ike.
And again, I think this type of stuff has been like, Like
statistically on the average like disproven that like age is
more important than like number of touches.
But like mad I kind of by that just the fact that he's so
fucking big and it has like never gotten hurt in his career
besides the foot injury like any doesn't have that many Travelers
tires like yeah I don't know, I guess I'm just like at the like
it's kind of the same bed as last year if like if we know
Tannehill is back. It's kind of the same bed as
last year and we're getting like the to around discount.
I think it's a, I mean two different better than last year
because he's gonna Tails getting.
Benched we all know. Tina was getting Dana's.
Getting traded retaining those getting benched and now you got
will love this guy in the playoffs.
You don't want will of us is running back in the playoffs,
I'd guess. But like, so.
Guess what you saying? No, no.
I the last part of your ear when I agree with the first part, is
the crazy that the Titans are in the playoff race with the Texans
in the Colts in their division. I guess that's true.
Ryan Tannehill is playing well. Like I don't know if variables
the guy that's like looking towards the future and saying,
we gotta play Love is so I don't know.
There's certainly like downside risk variables there with Henry
which is again, I'm not taking as much as other guys but like
if he holds and like late third and I can do like wide receiver
wide receiver running back starts with him.
I'll probably I'll probably do that a little bit.
All right I mean yeah. I could see it.
I could see it for sure. I think I must have taken some.
I mean, the third round is not where you're used to seeing
Henry go. Yeah, well, you had to me like
Pollard briefs from Andre Jacobs are kind of the guys chub.
I like, I like, I like job. Yeah.
I mean he's getting up there in age a little bit, and he's
always been a to down guy, but it's pretty easy to imagine how
Kareem hunt goes, and they just like, they're like using him a
little bit more. And do they have to be good this
year? They have to be good.
Yeah otherwise she fancies getting fired.
So, you know, previous like Jacob Sanderson has made an
interesting point that like, they probably view chub is like
having this massive advantage on in rushing situations and not
really adding anything in passing out situations.
Even if he's not bad, it's just like why waste this guy?
Well, one reason is just like because, you know, they might
get fired. If they don't, if they don't win
games this year, You're so like maybe they just leave.
So yeah. Another thing is like, the
receiving projection for chub, like that's an upside case you
can make. But like if you just does what
he's done in the past two years and it's just like an insanely
efficient rusher and is on offense.
That's going to score a lot of touchdowns like just how we talk
about it with Taylor, like just a really good running back.
Can can pay off in a PPR and you're not paying like a 12
price tag on chub. So, I think again like you know,
there are some of those Seasons where we made the Ken Road, Eric
Cantor is going to pass, get, like, catch passes this year and
that was wrong, but he still smashes ATP.
Right? Because like, he rushes so
efficiently, like you don't need, like, people are pushing
back into the shop. Receiving like, you don't need
that from to pay off as ATP. It certainly like a nice upside
case that I think is plausible now, but I'm not saying I'm not
baking that into his like median projection that, he catches 50
passes, no, I'm just saying that.
Like, you know, you take his splits there was that year I
think was when they had Carlos Hyde and he Got cut and haunt
wasn't there. It was his rookie year.
It was yeah, well, I thought there was some like, nigga
second year, maybe he had cunt know what it was is that in his
second year, he was getting receiving work and then hunt got
cut by the Chiefs and then landed on the Browns, right?
Isn't that what happened? And then he immediately ruined
chub for from then until now. And maybe he returns to that
other guy we should we should land a plane though.
She yeah, we should yeah, which is super late.
All Let's do, let's do our best ADP takes and get out of here.
All right. Well I forgot to do on so I can
I can come yours my rankings. That'd be probably a good.
Yeah, that's probably good. A good way to do it.
I am going to take as I scroll through.
They DP on Underdog. I has anyone done for net yet?
I don't think anyone's done for not yet.
Now, that's a good one. Mama didn't warn that.
It's just obvious. He's gonna sign somewhere.
We've Talked about it. We don't need to explain the
thesis the play, he's not done. You look at his stats last year.
In Tampa Bay, call them washed up.
Lenny, you know say that he's trash.
He was better than shot. Always receiving back.
He's really just kept going for another minute.
She's calm garbage. Say the Jaguars are right to cut
him. Yeah it's yeah.
Anyways he's he's better than Richard white as a receiver last
year. That's a fact.
He's a big dude. Some NFL team is gonna view him
as a guy who has a role in the league.
So I'm taking Lenny guaranteed, put it in pan, 4040, clv once he
signs a new Team. All right, well, I'll just ride
your coattails here. I'll go seek, I'll go Elliot
Gonna Be Rising upwards. A little not quite as cheap to
begin with, but he'll be moving up.
Once he signs in a better landing spot, the cornet.
And I'm going to get some exposure before.
That happens because I've been too much tilted 249 as we talked
about earlier. That's that's fair.
I'll mix in some Zeke to. Anyways guys, this was this is a
lot of fun longer show then then normal, but I think we talked
about a lot of good things. Again, if you're watching this,
this show on Wednesday nights and you're not tuning into ADP,
chasing, I think you're really missing out this show.
We're doing some other things, probably every Friday, maybe
every Monday. We definitely got an Edison
failed on our To let you guys know exactly what we're going to
be doing things but we'll be around this offseason and yeah
come come check us out. We'll have a lot of ATP.
ATP takes this entire summer Pat, what's going on at leg up
over the next couple weeks. All right, an article on Elite
tight end, which I think is a massive Edge in baseball
tournaments and just explaining why I think that kind of
pointing out that like, you know, Hayden wakes, done some
research on That it doesn't separate from the pack as well
as running back and wide receiver which is true but the
kind of just the interesting thing about tight end is that
like there's really only so many Spike weeks that even occur in a
given season. And the elites tend to capture a
huge share of those Spike weeks given that we're making three
consecutive single week bets to win this tournament.
So actually pretty high chance, that someone puts together a
stretch, you want to have that guy on your team and so yeah,
kind of gotten the guy. The weeds of like the fan ball
data that we have on Ali tight end which goes back at 2015,
that's PPR site but that's been really strong for really tight
end for years. Really tight end is absolutely
crushing the playoffs over the last two years and Underdog so
it's definitely like a strategy where we're trying to figure
out. We're always, you know, we don't
have the right answers because we have small sample sizes but
there's like a lot of really strong hints in the store pull
data that Elite tight end could be like a potentially massive
Edge and prices have fallen on Elite tight ends right now.
So it's like you don't even have to be right, you know, you can
use this strategy that is done really well for people and
you're getting it at a discount after not just Kelsey, but
kid'll was on numerous first-place teams last year
across the industry. Kelsey was on a bunch as well.
So kind of laid it out, it's like a 6,000 werder but if
you're a lead leg up subscriber, I narrate it for you so you can
do you can do the podcast version.
While you scroll, there's lots of charts, you can scroll on
your phone, look at the charts. And listen to me read it.
So I sign up for legendary upside, you can still get $30
off your first year, at legendary upside.com early and
there's still some Underdog credits right now and get a $50
under all credit. After you sign up, make sure to
fill out a form, which is on the the website.
You go to perk / Discord, there's a form in there, fill it
out and you'll get fifty dollars in your Underdog account as
well. Awesome stuff.
Yeah, that's great. Article, should definitely check
that out. Guys, will be back ship.
Chasing next Wednesday night and ATP.
Chasing sometime next week. Have a good night, everyone.
We will see you next week.