All right, so I've been waiting around for Davis and he's out
today. Sam is out today, Davis is also
out, but we got Ben Gretsch, we got Dwayne McFarlane.
This is ADP chasing. Let's go.
ADP chasing is for when you watch ship chase and you go
these guys are just football guys.
And the targets for outrun leagues, that's going to be
really nice. Actually back in if it's Austin
A to. Our crystal ball.
Close your eyes, you know all your.
Entries are going to. Lose anyway.
Yeah, that's fair. This is a Deuce von show.
It's. Anti cabal it's anti the best
ball thought leader. I'm obviously lying to some
degree because like I have a lot of both of.
These guys, it's the most disgusting thing you can make.
But man, Pat, did you get Sam's slides?
Yeah, I do have Sam's slides. Yeah, but I got Sam's slides are
uploaded, so we're all good and. Cold open was like I was not
ready to do. This I wasn't ready to do the
cold open. I didn't have the brand the
let's go said as slow as possible as I find the intro,
found the ship chasing intro, then found the ADP intro seconds
after that. So it's that kind of show.
Honestly, this is already like still above the 50th percentile
for preparedness for an ADP chasing.
So we're, we're still good, but how you guys doing?
I'm good, you guys are making me feel great.
I feel over prepared. You.
You are. I can guarantee you that you
are. You're just like how you guys
doing? Let's welcome Dwayne in.
I mean, I've been around here. People know me on on ship
chasing Dwayne, you do incredible work over at fantasy
life. You had an, there's a lot of
different like write ups about the preseason stuff I mentioned
in, in mine, which is a little bit more like what I felt like I
saw from a talent perspective that if you want the specific
data, the one that I really enjoyed the most was your write
up, which is very straightforward.
And you also obviously had some takes in there too.
But I, I love the way that you, you know, break down the actual,
the, the usage numbers. So definitely recommend that for
anybody who's looking for all the data from preseason week
one. But yeah, thanks for joining us.
Yeah, man, I appreciate it. Like I think about it's like
it's the tip of the iceberg, right?
We know there's all these things that go into like what the
coaches are going to ultimately do on week one and like what
these rosters are going to look like, how they're going to
deploy everyone. And, and really like the
preseason's only a small part of it, but we can see it and we can
actually go look at the data. We can look at the information.
We can watch these players on film.
So we hyper hyper analyze it. I do think it's very value
valuable. I think you have to be careful
not to over analyze it. I think it can take you in the
wrong direction at times as well.
But again, like it's the one thing we have to look at.
So you know, you write a 7000 word column on it and you stay
up all night, you know, grinding film and looking at all the data
so that you can get it out. But where I think it becomes
like the most helpful is whenever you can start to marry
these things with all the other things that have already
happened, right? Like how the team spent their
draft capital, where they invested their money in free
agency, what they've been telling us all offseason, what
are we hearing in camp? And once all those things start
to add up, obviously you get certain players where everything
clicks, right? It's like, oh, we heard that.
We heard that. Now we're seeing that, you know,
in the preseason. That's really good.
Most times it's like 2 out of three of those things you feel
pretty good, like 'cause you're not going to normally get them
all to align or if they do, they're like players that were
already on right there. Oh, great.
You know, the starters all rested.
Well, yeah, we know that. We know who the starters are for
the team. So I I still love it though,
because it's like that one, it's the puzzle piece, right?
And we're just trying to put all those pieces together.
So excited to join you guys. Did anything kind of jump out to
you from the the preseason stuff?
I I know one that was probably the scary, like the big scary
one for a lot of people was the Cole comment, Gerald Everett
stuff. I got, I got to jump in here
because I get this question and and I write certain signals in
season. Dwayne, you write the
utilization report, which is incredible.
I love the Did anything stand out?
Yeah, I watched all 32 teams. There's a lot of shit that stood
out, right. I can't just like name one
thing. That's why I was directing the
Cole comment one. That one I think had a lot of
that one had kind of a lot of impact in sort of the perception
of things. Did that that stand out to you
as far as the Everett and comment stuff?
Yeah, it definitely stood out to me because like with Shane
Waldron, we've got this kind of a long running trend now, which
is so weird because he comes from the Shawn McVeigh tree,
which is like the most 11 heavy personnel offense in the league.
Well, he's in Seattle last year, was in Seattle the last few
years, but last year you have Jackson Smith and Jigma as a
first round pick. You have DK Metcalf, you have
Tyler Lockett. What does he do?
He goes out there and he uses 11 personnel like 63% of the time.
He was slightly above the league average.
No, you got we get Colby Parkinson on the field.
We got to have Will Disney on the field.
You know, we got to have no one fan on the field.
Now part of me thought, well, maybe that's really Pete
Carroll, you know, because these guys, you know, they get told
certain things or certain things that are mandated to you as a
coordinator. So we can't always assume like
it's an apples to apples when a guy moves.
But then we come out in the preseason like it's just not
encouraging. You know, we go out and we see
that Romo, Dunze has a 50% route participation with the starters.
DJ Moore was at 63%. And then you already mentioned
it with Komet and Gerald Everett.
They were the same. So they want to use 12
personnel. They did invest in Gerald
Everett. Like if I'm the coach of the
Bears, like I'm just like, hey, we're just going to put our
three wide receivers out there and let's see where the chips
fall. We got this young quarterback
and Caleb Williams. As much as I like Gerald
Everett, he's not as good as Romo Dunze.
It's not an equal trade off. Let's get Romo Dunze on the
field. So, yeah, I'm definitely
concerned about the Bears. But I think it's not just Comet,
man. I think it's they could rotate
all these guys. Keenan didn't leave the field in
this game. But again, this can be one of
those tricky things where they may be as a coaching staff said
hey, in game one, we're just going to let Keenan get all of
his reps out of the way and we're just not going to risk it
with him the rest of the preseason.
Like we have to see what they do in the rest of these games.
My guess is they're going to rotate all three guys though,
and it could hurt all three of them.
That's interesting. Yeah.
I didn't think about it in terms of Everett coming on the field
instead of like DJ Moore, because that's just so, so
stupid. But it's.
Possible. What about the backfield?
Because that's also rotation. Did that did that worry you at
all? Because one of the things that's
very funny to me is that like, we spent the entire offseason
freaking out about like, we can't draft anyone from
uncertain backfields because Khalil Herbert and so much, if
you run, are both going to sign there and then be the 1-2 and
like, neither of them might get cut.
Exactly. Well, Khalil Herbert, like he
rotated in on like the second play of this game.
He took the second rushing attempt.
It might have been the third play, but he took the second
rushing attempt. DeAndre Swift took the first
one. Then, you know, Herbert rotated
back off and you had the crazy screenplay.
You know, where Caleb, Kayla Williams, a lot of people, it's
like the announcer's like, oh, man, pressure with the middle
about to get like it's a middle screenplay, dude.
Like this was a design play. And Caleb still made this great
play. Like it's a no look pass, you
know, back over to Swift, who takes off for 42 yards.
But yeah, the week before it was Roshan Johnson Hall of Fame
game. You kind of got to like wad it
up and just throw it in the trash.
But Roshan played first and then Khalil Herbert played.
Well, Roshan wasn't even active yesterday, so I think right now
I'm keeping Swift as the lead guy, but I've only got him at
45% of the attempts and I've got him at like a 35% route
participation. And then I have the other two
guys splitting the rest of the work, kind of waiting to see if
like, you know, enough camp news or something through pre season
helps us determine which one we would put, you know, higher over
the other. My concern is like they all kind
of have sub roles. Like I think Swift is the base
package. Then I could see Johnson taking
the passing down reps but cool. Herbert really being the main
guy that takes any of the other carries away from Swift.
But honestly, we don't know for sure.
We just really don't know how they're going to deploy this
backfield. But it's that's how.
Yeah, that's how I kind of think the backfield could go.
But the other thing, and I saw you mention this as well,
Dwayne, that really stood out is Caleb Williams looked as
advertised. He made some really great plays.
And if we think like, OK, this offense is going to be really
good. Like I'm, I'm, I've always been
really high on Keenan and DJ Moore and then I'm AU dub guy
and I really like Rome Dunze and I'm like, I think this is like
my favorite trio of receivers. And like, so yeah, the usage
stuff is really concerning to me.
But I'm I'm really high on this offense.
I'm high on the backfield for the stuff that I have always
called the high value touches, the receptions and and the
potential for touchdowns should go go up and should go up for
Swift, especially when he was in an offense last year where he
wasn't getting a lot of that. I mean, he was getting Green
Zone touches but kept going down at the one yard line for
whatever reason. But I do think the running backs
in this offense should score some touchdowns.
They should catch plenty of passes.
And so then it's it's a thing of like, OK, it's really crowded at
the skill positions. But if Caleb is that good and
this offense is that good, we can also go back to that thing.
What's like, Yeah, sometimes the crowdedness holds down 80 PS.
But there's contingent upside, right?
Like if one of these guys misses time, if Gerald Everett misses
time, then we're all fucking happy.
This guy's 30 years old. He's been banged up.
Before, are they going to sign like, I don't know, Chris
Manhertz, they're going to trade for Chris Manhertz?
What? This seems like philosophical at
this point. Perhaps they do, actually.
Have Mercedes Lewis on the on the Yeah, there you go, Mercedes
Lewis 18th round pick. I'm with Ben.
I think that Caleb is the best way that none of this matters
and and you really are hitting on something like when we have
these really good offenses, we shouldn't get so concerned.
I would rather have the players in the really good offenses even
over certain guys that I know we're just going to get the
volume because that volume can be misleading.
Even though they're talented players and they're earning that
volume, it can really be misleading.
A lot of the fantasy points are going to come from the best
offenses. And to your point, been like
when you watch Caleb, like he's just doing things that you just
don't see everybody else do. I mean, it's third and 12.
He's got a check down sitting right in front of him, like 7
yards in front of him. Most quarterbacks that are
rookies are taking it. They're just going to check it
out. Kirk Cousins is throwing the
pass every time. He waits a beat, Moore, he
drills it into DJ Moore picks up the first down on 3rd and 12.
Everybody obviously saw. The big highlight everybody saw
was him rolling to his right the throat, you know, Cole Comet,
you know, second layer throw, throw, you know, right on the
sideline. That was a great play.
Then they also saw the screenplay.
But I mean, this guy, like, those aren't things you're just,
you're seeing really from everyone else.
And the Bills were actually trying to disguise some
coverages and stuff. I thought Hayden Winks did a
great job of kind of pointing that stuff out.
And some tweets that he sent out yesterday, like, not all
defenses are the same. They are trying to, you know,
practice certain things. Yeah, it's mostly vanilla, but
they were doing some things to Caleb, and he was identifying
them. And he was really, you know,
answering everything like that they threw at him.
So I am with you. He's still a rookie quarterback,
though. So it's like there is this
unknown. It is pre season, so how much of
it can we take? Like last year everybody got
excited about Kenny Pickett. What happened in week one?
Like he just gets bitch slapped, right?
I mean, it's just like he looked terrible.
He looked great in the pre season.
Sam Howell, you know, actually like threw for quite a few
yards. I guess.
You know, he just got sacked all the time.
So quarterbacks were the hardest thing to evaluate in my opinion
in the pre season. But there were these specific
things that if you go back where and that's why I think you do
have to watch the film too on these players.
You can't just look at the data. Whenever you look at Caleb
Williams, he did three or four things that you just don't see
other quarterbacks do, and I think that's very encouraging.
I love when you said everybody was in on Kenny Pickett, and I
absolutely was, but Pat's face was just like I wasn't.
I wasn't. Not only was I not, I had to
hear about it for two years how I should be.
Yeah, I overreacted to that one hand up.
I did too, and in my defense bat I feel like most of the time I
was like we don't know yet was more my.
Yeah, I was like, ready. We do I.
Definitely hedged on Kenny. In all my writing.
I was like, maybe, you know, but if you squirt.
My thing with Kenny is I hit the my Pryor on him was it's like
this guy probably sucks like he's he's a third round pick.
It went in the first round. And so I was like, show me
something, show me something one time, show me something one
time. Kenny, he never did.
So all right, rookies, the rookie stuff.
This is when it starts to be like a little less fun, right?
We get to we get to dream all May and June.
We're dreaming about week 17. But then you get hit in the face
with like, hey, Tess Walker's like the water receiver 8 Does
that bother you? It's like Luke, he's like, oh,
John Dodson's just going to play on Dodson.
Is the slot, is that a problem? It probably is.
Jermaine Burton's like, you know, wide receiver six or
something right now. Like lots of these guys are
further down the depth chart than we would like.
Not all of them. I was pretty encouraged by AD
Mitchell, you know, getting some, some run out of the slot.
I was like, Peyton doesn't know Troy Franklin's on his roster.
Yeah, he, this other dude Veely, who's 26 and he turns 27 in
December. That's not a bit.
This is not Davis. I'm not adding years.
He really turns 27 in seven. I mean, I have an old slow big
receiver. Let's get him in.
Yeah, yeah. So.
I saw Lil Jordan Humphrey on at one point and I was like, that
doesn't look like Mims, but he's #17 it's like, I think Mims
didn't. Mims used to be 17 and now he's
not. Now he's, oh, he's 19.
I don't know. I got confused by the number.
Mims I played one snap and then left and.
Then it came back. If you're going to play 1 snap,
please don't come back. I can talk myself into you being
rested if you play 1 snap and leave.
I just had this moment where I was like, oh, Mims is on.
And then I was like, no, that's a little Jordan Humphrey as far.
As your point of these. Old like big slow guys like oh
great, it's. Getting ready to have that
feeling again during the season. But like, obviously, you know,
the big one last year, Devon A Chan was like 4th or whatever on
the depth chart. I think in active week one
didn't turn out to be a problem. So we don't want to overreact,
but at the same time, like a lot of these dart throw rookies are
going to fail. And so it's like it's a tricky
thing where you're like, this is real information.
It probably should like make us a little bit more cautious in
certain cases, but then you also don't want to just write off
everyone who's not in line for a starting job right away.
Yeah, and I feel like I worry about it less with the running
backs, right? Like I, I kind of anticipate
this and we have seen more of the running backs, you know,
have to work their way up the depth chart.
But then suddenly, you know, you guys talk about it all the time,
An injury, you know, been chaos happens in the season and
suddenly Jalen writes on the field.
And all I care really is that he looked fantastic when he was on
the field. And that's really all I care
about with Jalen Wright. I'm not even worried about the
depth chart at this point. It's like it's a Miami offense.
I don't care if he's 4th. I don't care if he's 3rd on the
depth chart. Like, if something opens up and
that guy ever gets on the field, I'm going to wish he was in my
fantasy lineup. And really, even for less
talented running backs, because we know it just comes down to
volume. Like they've got another players
doing a job and they get handed the ball and then you know
they're going to get points. It's just a matter of how many.
But at receiver, it is definitely more concerning
because we want to see them get first team reps.
We want to see them get work with the starters.
You know, if they're struggling early on, we've seen it more
often with the wide receivers that this can be really
problematic. So McCaffrey not getting any
work, scared to death moved him down.
Devantez Walker, you mentioned not getting out there with a
starter scared to death moved him down.
Not drafting Troy Franklin anymore, Not drafting Quentin
Johnston ever again. Probably in my life, I guess so,
yeah. You took him out of the dynasty
rankings today. Oh my God, That's yeah, that's
where we're. At you can't even be in the
dynasty. Right.
Yeah, Top 250, Sorry. Yeah, so the receivers worry me
more, you know, so not, not to say that some of these guys
can't work their way back up the depth chart.
We've got one data point and we'll obviously we'll follow it
for the next couple of them. We'll be we'll be following all
the training camp stuff or the OR the practice stuff.
But yeah, the receivers, it's really, really concerning in my
opinion. Franklin's the one I'm still in
on, you know, eighteenth round dart throw still, because my my
thinking is I know you have the day three draft capital, which
is a major concern, but it's like Tim Patrick, Josh Reynolds.
The fact that Mims is not established himself is bullish
for Franklin, right? It's like there is a path still.
And just in terms of if he's good there, he can get on the
field over the course of the season or just at the end of the
season. And then the Bonex connection.
I just can't stop. That's worth something to me.
So I'm I'm still going to be drafting some Franklin, but he
obviously took a hit. You don't want to be, you don't
want to be drafting on the 15th or whatever.
Yeah, by the end of the year, like some somebody that's young
on the Broncos has to be playing right?
Because they're not going to be good, please.
I mean, so they're going to have to look at these, please.
Sean. I, I had that as I tweeted this
this morning as being pretty sort of veteran deference
people. I you know, Yankee had his write
up and and he talked about P Ryan clearly having a role
because he was playing on on passing downs.
I had to like basically the opposite opinion when you when
you when you factor in the jerk Stadium also started and and
they started Mims to try to sort of make a point, but then also
did the veteran deference thing at receiver.
And then the thing about Pyron is like, how did he actually
play? Well, he got a swing pass to him
that hit him right here and he juggled it and hit it in the air
like a like a three Stooges skit for an interception.
It's like you're already on the roster bubble, but like you got
to catch the swing pass. That's what you do.
You're literally a receiving back.
Not a great moment for him. I'm really so the veteran
difference at wide receiver though, like that's I get it at
quarterback and running back for sure, but Josh Reynolds is new
to the team and Tim Patrick hasn't.
I mean, maybe I could see it with Tim Patrick because he's
been on the roster, but he's not like really put in reps with
Sean Payton yet. So, like Reynolds, getting
veteran deference over Mims is the veteran of the of the
program. Well, I mean, Reynolds has been
in the league a lot longer. He's played on.
Sure, but I mean like as far as like coaching he's.
His third team he signed a a, a, you know, a veteran contract
this offseason. Mims is a second year.
Yeah, I know he's been in the league longer, but I'm saying
like, as far as like who the loyalty goes to, it should.
It would be Mims, not Reynolds. The free agent edition from the
Lions. I think the fact that he's a 29
year old receiver, they brought it in free agency matters.
Mims is what, a 22 year old right now?
Yeah, he's 22. I get.
I think it the fact that it matters.
Like if that matters then that's so then.
The second element of it is he would came back in for the
Knicks snaps. And so I want to see if they've
already said Knicks is going to start next week.
And I think Knicks played well enough that he's probably the
overwhelming favorite to start. Week one was my take away.
He wasn't great. I saw some other people be like,
I mean, that's being overstated. His downfield passing wasn't
perfect, but he made a really nice throw on 1/3 down rolling
to his left to Cortland Sutton on the sideline on the 1st
drive. And then after they pushed it
downfield a little bit early, he threw a bunch underneath.
He threw to the tight ends a lot.
He threw to the running backs. He threw a nice little wheel
route to Jalil McLaughlin on their last drive and it was
accuracy underneath, which is what Sean Payton wants.
And that's like what, why Bonex is the right fit and, and so
like, like he's dude, he's going to make not make enough mistakes
that like that's what Peyton wants you to do, right?
He scrambled a little bit, showed some mobility.
I think he's starting week one. I'm really interested to see how
the rotation is next week when he starts the week two pre
season game, because I, I kind of with the Mims starting and
then coming back in thing, I kind of thought it was like,
well, let's get him some rest. He already knows this is our
week 1 starter at quarterback. And I want, I want Mims playing
with him a little because Sutton actually stayed on with Nicks as
well. So I mean, I just think Peyton's
rotation was really weird and I don't want to read too much into
like. Who I like that.
I like that take of playing with Nicks that is interesting and
man, like Tim Patrick and wheat, like obviously you know, they're
in the rankings. Like I couldn't feel less
excited about Tim Patrick or Josh Reynolds.
Like that's just, you know, like there's kind of the Zay Jones
path to basketball mania, you know, victory or or relevance
where you get that big spike week.
But like that I think his was in week 16.
So like you, you're telling me these guys last a week 16.
I I really struggle to see it with either guy.
Yeah, I don't want to click. I don't even want to click on
Courtland Sutton. Just play the running backs,
yeah? What what did you guys think
about the running backs? Like because it is a weird
situation. I think you're really on to
something, Ben. Like that's the context.
Like you have to think through and I was mentioning it earlier,
there's different reasons behind like why coaches use certain
players a certain way in the preseason.
You know, I mentioned it with the Keenan thing.
Like for all we know, they're like, hey, let's just get him
his reps this week and then we're not going to bother with
it and he's fine and we'll let Rome play the rest of the
preseason. Who knows what the rest is still
to come. But I do think it was very
interesting to your point like that, you know Mims is out there
1 snap and then gone but plays with Nicks.
Yeah, when you ask about the running backs, I have to reverse
my whole take because. They only.
Played with Stidham but I took that to mean that, you know,
clearly that's. Why he's the 2nd teamer?
Dude, that's basically the second team I'm driving the.
Javonte, so he has to be perfect.
No, I my big take away was so they brought in McLaughlin next.
So P Ron played it with the first team as well.
Then they brought in McLaughlin to play most of the Knicks stuff
and then they brought an estimate.
I liked that Estimate was playing on passing downs.
He was he was playing on on like blitz pickups and he actually
looked half decent to me. He caught all three targets from
at least one from next, maybe two from next.
And then he caught he was stayed on with Zach Wilson and he
caught one from from Zach Wilson and he looked like comfortable
catching the ball for a guy who didn't catch a lot of balls in
in in in college. It's nice to see that.
And so that's the big thing with the P9 thing is like Estimate.
I think Peyton cares about size. I've talked about this take all
offseason, but he's actually mentioned it size.
So I'm sure he does. Right.
He won't stop talking about it, you said.
Yeah, he won't stop talking about size, right?
And wide receiver and running back, but he just talks about it
constantly. Size size.
Size. He always has this mix though,
like he always has a small stat back that we're trying to figure
out. You know what was like Trenton
Cannon? Joker, I think he calls that.
Yeah, yeah, the Joker, he's always going to look.
That's. What's weird because they gave
Blake Watson like the third most guaranteed money of any UDFA,
the most of any running back and I thought Watson looked good at
the very end as well. Although he played after like
Tyler Beatty as well. So he was like really late.
But I think a lot of people are expecting Watson to make the
team because they gave him so much guaranteed money on the
UDFA market. And he kind of fits this profile
of a Peyton back. But if he does and P Ron
doesn't, then you have two of the smaller backs with
McLaughlin and and Watson is pretty small.
And so that it's only Javonte an estimate, which is why that's
those are the two that I've been hammering.
I'm still kind of confused about it to the answer like back to
your question and how to answer it.
But I was the big thing that I took away from this was I was
optimistic about estimate in the in the passing game.
Nice. That is pretty cool.
I mean, I, I suppose the, the most, the the simplest
explanation would be that he's still figuring out who his
backfield is going to be. And I like your point about like
they're basically being two first team opportunities to go
to go show something. So you know, P Ryan getting
those first reps, I was like a little concerned that that meant
he was making the team. Maybe it does, but it it's
probably like less bullish than it might be with with AI.
Know this is going to be my starting quarterback week one
type of type of 1 setup. Yeah, the fun thing is we could
just make up whatever we want to believe, or at least that's what
I'm doing with the Broncos. Oh yeah, I know the first team.
Is good. The BI with the first team is
bad. That's bad actually for BI.
All right, let's let's look at some risers and fallers here.
Debo Samuel. I don't know if you guys are
like, so we took Debo Samuel at the three O 1 and a main event
over the weekend or just before the weekend.
And you know, then like hours later, the IU is going to re
enter a negotiation. Stuff broke.
But what's interesting is that in drafts today, still seeing
Debo go kind of in the early second round on underdog.
So it doesn't seem like people are backing off of the Debo
aggressiveness yet. I don't know, like what?
How are you guys playing Debo right now?
Well, it's tough because we don't know what can when do you
guys tell me what's going on with you?
You think because they had talked negotiations all
offseason, presumably have talked through every type of
possible deal, they could talk through long term, short term,
more guaranteed money, rearranging the deal just for
this year, whatever And got to the point they did with all the
trade stuff because their incentives didn't align right?
They don't want to have to pay IUCA long term contract when
they have to extend party next year and they have already paid
Debo and all this other stuff. Why all of a sudden are they
finding something to talk about that's new?
That's what I don't understand. I think they did the Lamar
Jackson thing where they, you know, it's it's one thing to
tell yourself is Iuke like whatever, man, I'll go play
anywhere. There's 31 other teams and I'll
go play there if they if these guys aren't going to pay me And
then you like have to stare down going to, you know, join an
Arthur Smith offense and you're kind of like, OK, let's, let's
talk a little more and see if there's a deal we can reach
here. So you think they won?
They won the game of check in without you.
I think they may have, I mean, we'll see.
I don't know how far apart they are and and everything, but I
think this tactic worked and it you know, it at least created a
second conversation. What do you think?
So I think the thing with Debo is interesting because like you
could end up ranking him like as a mid range, you know, round two
pick anyway. Like I mean, he's in a range
where you could take him anywhere from the middle of
round two to the middle of round three.
So I never thought there was a ton of risk with like taking him
at the 1-2 turn. But it is interesting that
people are not backing off. I do feel like the most likely
outcome now is that he is a 49er and people are continuing to
take him there. So, like, I could feel like
middle of second round, fine. You know, there's still maybe
there's a chance like some other deal happens and he does get
traded, you know, if things breakdown.
But I mean, the 49ers have all the leverage.
So I just don't understand like how IU gets out of town unless
he ends up saying yeah and changes his mind that he's going
to play for one of these teams that presumably like right now
he doesn't really want to play for.
So the interesting part like is Iuke, where is he going now,
Pat? Cuz like I didn't draft
yesterday but the day before like he was still going in the.
3rd, he's the biggest faller. Yeah, so are you guys.
I feel like it's time to scoop up Iuke here.
I have been. Yeah.
It's confusing that part of it's confusing to me as well.
Like what? What has changed for Iuke?
Like why if you, if you don't want to take him higher than
this, then why were you taking him in the second round all
offseason? That's the part that I don't
because. Like, well, I think so.
The thing that is I think through.
Steelers offense, I think. Steelers offense, yeah, he's
he's got to fall. He probably goes to kind of
where Pickens was maybe a little bit higher, but like in that
range. If the trade happens.
If the trade happens, maybe and maybe he does fall more to the
4th. Pickens would obviously fall
considerably. But yeah, you're getting, but I
think that at this price more upside is available by picking
him then then you, you know, taking on downside.
I think there's there's an opportunity.
Don't you guys think he's most likely a niner?
I mean, so if that's the case, then this is a value.
Right. I think it's a value and.
But there's probably at least a little something to be said
where if he doesn't get back in camp soon that, you know, we
talked about this a little on ship chasing, I think last week,
Pat, where it's like this time last year, we were hearing just
constant positive buzz about IUC and it foretold a great season.
And, you know, no one could guard him and camp.
He was tearing it up. And the years prior he was in
the doghouse. And those were not good years
for IUC. Like I'd, I'd love him to
actually be practicing and like hearing good reports and showing
up week one and being just as good as he was last year and
having as big of a role as he had last year is maybe a little
bit of a risk. You think the doghouse stuff
sort of poisoned the well here? And he was like, you put me in
the dog. Who was he behind?
He had him running behind. Somewhat absurd.
Oh, God, yeah. Just absolutely.
It was Trent Sherfield or I think it might have been worse
than that. And it was just like, seriously,
like now it's not. You got to pay for that.
You got to pay all that for putting me in the doghouse.
Was it? When was that like was?
That 22 No, it wasn't Pettis. Pettis was one of the worst dogs
this. Was one before, yeah.
Yeah, he ice Pettis there it. Might have been Trent Sherfield.
It was 2021. They, let's see, they had Richie
James, Muhammad Sunu, Trent Sherfield, Mighty Craft.
It might have been River Craft. He was on the team that year.
Jalen Hurd was on that team. There's a name.
Yeah. Yeah, running back.
Why was he a hybrid? Yeah, Let me go back to the
risers here, Cooper. Oh, here's another one.
We got Cooper Cup rising up three spots, 11% and then we got
Kuka falling, he's down one spot.
But I mean, you know, it's a decent change when you're now it
probably doesn't change much with puka because he's just like
you took Garrett Wilson at 10 now or at 11.
Now you take him at 10, you take Puka at 11.
I'm not seeing him fall like well actually sometimes I'm
seeing him fall past the the 1-2 turn and you can get him at like
the 2O22O3 which I I think. It was Chess Liam that posted a
screenshot of Bijan and Puka. That's beautiful, this.
Is one where it feels like they are as as cup gets more pricey
and Nakua can't really fall that far.
It feels like they are probably collectively overpriced.
And yet I don't think it's wrong because I we care about outlier
upside. We care about ceiling.
And we know that in this offense and and for both of these
players independently, they've already shown it that if they're
the focal point of the passing game for any stretch of time,
they're going to be like a top three wide receiver, right?
Like, I mean, top five, they're going to be very, very
important. The cup stuff is like, OK, well,
there's some risk that Niku is going to be able to back up last
year cups actually the healthier one right now.
I mean, probably kind of feels like a value still.
Like I'm struggling with like how high should I be rising him
in my ranks? Because I mean, I could see a
case for having him like middle of the second round, right?
Like if if you actually think that the offense is going to
flow through him again like some of these B reports are saying.
Yeah, I got a. I've been kind of fading cup,
like as he's been rising. I mean, he's age 31.
He's struggled more and more against man coverage the last
two years. Now he's been injured.
So like that's obviously part of it.
You're going out and trying to beat press man coverage and
you're hurt. Like that's going to be an
impact. We've also had Stafford,
Stafford battling like health issues, like even though he's
been playing a lot of the game. So like, those things are
obviously baked in. But yeah, like as Cooper Cup
like has made it like towards the 2-3 turn, like I've just
found myself not really clicking on and clicking on.
And maybe I'll change my mind at some point and be like, well, if
I want my exposure, like I'm going to have to do it.
I do agree. And like when you know, like the
person Cooper Cup is and like how he got to where he is, you
know, he showed up weighing like, you know, 45 lbs, you
know, to college and he turns. Into the.
Starting wide receiver, like I don't want to bet against a
person like that. Like I know he's going to do his
part. He's going to do everything he
needs to do to be ready to go. He's going to take care of his
body. He's going to be in lock step
with Stafford. So like if he if he has another
season in him, like he's going to get it out of himself.
So like, I, I like that mentality.
So just making me rethink. I mean, maybe maybe I need to
reconsider my stance because I've really just been like, no,
because I've just been assuming the puka Nakua stuff is pushing
him up. And once we hear Puka's back,
like cup falls back down the board and then I start taking it
again. It reminds me, it does remind me
of the Devo stuff where, you know, people in the chat were
saying like, we just needed a reason to get Devo, you know, up
there. Like Drake London vaulted up
like massively. You know, he was going on like
the third, fourth round of the big board.
And then Cousins signed and he went in the early 3rd, late
second of the end of the big board and kind of just made it
kept making his way up. But it just to me, his rise kind
of shows how flat that tier is. So Debo, like, yeah, maybe he
just kind of stays up near the top and in the same way, like
Cup can kind of make his way up a lot of places.
That flat tier man, like Malik, like is the other name that like
if I, I stare at each name and I'm like, now the, the ankle
injury and like the, the news we heard this morning is a little
different than what we heard yesterday.
So obviously, like we got to wait and like, see what's up
with that. But like every name I would look
at, I would be like, OK, I could take Malik neighbors over him.
I would get to the next name. I could take Malik neighbors
over him. And so I mean, I moved him up
multiple spots, you know, in my ranks at least ahead of the
older guys, right, where I know like 22% of the time, like, you
know, these age 31 plus wide receivers, like when they fall
off, we get no warning, nothing like it.
Just they were elite. And then this all of a sudden,
boom, they're a wide receiver for the next season.
So one in five times. So I'm like, like, I'll just
move Malik neighbors ahead of those names at least.
So I'm wondering what y'all's thoughts are on that.
I think obviously the injury is going to slow things down for
him, but I know I saw some people be like, Oh my God, once
he gets the 2-3 turn, like I'm out.
I just kept taking it. I'm fully in on Neighbor.
I've taken him a ton. I'm at 19%.
He's one of my highest drafted players, fifth highest drafted
overall. Again, it gets back to this
thing of like you were just talking about with the the flat
tier of like who you actually want to prioritize in some of
our main so far that Pat was alluding to like we took Debo at
the three O1. Like when we were discussing
that, I was throwing out some names.
If you look at ADP, like neighbors was clearly behind
them, but I was very clearly including neighbors.
I if you guys were like let's go neighbors, like, yeah, let's go
neighbors like, but like we're looking at Debo and Cop and
neighbors and I think Waddle was there like you have a strong
group there and it is like that's a guy that I have not
moved cup ahead of neighbors and frankly think neighbors should
probably be going ahead of Harrison.
When when I when we talked to this a little Papa, when I went
through the projections like just felt like the upside case
was so, so bold. You you're on that too as well,
Dwayne, right? You like?
To on my projections, I mean, I still so like I'm baking ADP
just like, you know, you guys do into the way you're handling
your ranks. So I mean, I'm assuming people
are drafting a lot of teams. So to get your exposure, you're
going to want to draft Marvin Harrison junior.
But I do have neighbors projected slightly ahead of
where I had Marvin Harrison junior.
And that's despite having, you know, a quarterback, you know,
and Daniel Jones, it's only averaged 218 passing yards per
game. And the games where he's played
at least 90%, you know, of the snaps.
So clearly Kyler's the better quarterback.
But once you subtract, you know Trey McBride, who I think is
also really good, like they get close, they get super close and
and even just like about. Michael Wilson, like I, I like
Greg Dorch. I feel like there's more.
Like when I went through the the Giants passing e-mail, I was
like this, this only works if it's all through neighbors and,
and with the Cardinals, I was like, it has to be through
Harrison too, but not as much. You know, I don't know.
It's just something. Yeah, I can.
I can definitely see that case. And you know, I think it's
probably like accurate to have them very close or have
neighbors slightly ahead. I do think the floor outcomes
are so much better for Harrison and also just like as a
prospect, like one of the highest floor prospects we've
ever seen. But like, you know, you get you
get good coaching. I think neighbors has that too.
But you got good coaching, you got better quarterback play.
The offense should put up points.
And then the ceiling outcomes I think are pretty high too, where
Harrison like if Harrison ends up being the the type of player
we're considering it like 1O11O2 next year.
Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch weren't a problem.
You know, that's like. I don't think they will be.
I think it's mostly McBride like.
I think the range of outcomes like so like.
But he's a tight end, you know, like, if he's that good, like,
even McBride isn't, Yeah. I, I think like the range of
outcomes is like for both of them, but more specifically,
like I, I agree with you on Harrison.
I do think that like the upside is like we've at least seen
Kyler, you know, have a year where you know, he could be
A-4000 plus yard passer. We've never seen that from
Daniel Jones, right? I mean, Kyler, if everything
clicked right now, it hasn't been every year, it's only been
one year. But like he could throw for 40,
three 4400 yards. Like it's a possibility.
At least, you know, Daniel Jones is never doing that.
So I do feel like the ceiling for Marvin Harrison junior is
you could get a Jamar Chase rookie type season, right?
Yeah, I feel like the middle ground as you get it for both
guys. I think you get a Jalen Waddle
season. Jalen Waddle.
Tua was not good at that point. He didn't have Tyreek Hill.
Everybody wasn't for sure what he was.
He was like a 220 yards per game guy.
But everything like what Ben was talking about went through
Waddle all this low A dot stuff. That's actually a really
interesting comp 'cause I think they would give him that design
stuff at the very least. Neighbors, right?
Yeah. I.
Think that's what I. Meant when I brought up like.
The rookie season, yeah. I completely agree with you guys
that like Wilson and Dorch don't matter, but essentially when you
have McBride and then have those guys, I felt like they're like,
I feel like you were talking about the design stuff in the
Waddle scenario. The Waddle scenario was is so
comparable because it was like there was no one else, like
everything went through Waddle and that's what it feels like
with neighbors and. Neighbors is a great pick.
Like he's just a great pick. He's a really good.
Pick, but I love I do love that discount like so don't.
But I like that point you made on Kyler because I think Kyler's
are really fun play as well. And this is the first time, I
mean, if you are not super high on Cliff Kingsbury, which I'm
not, this is the first time I thought petsing did a really
nice job last year with what they had offensively.
This is the first time he's going to play in like a
functional offense. Is a guy who was an absolute
elite player in in high school, was an elite player in college,
broke passing efficiency records and people are just like oh
Kyler He's that short dude that plays cog like no, that's not
you don't understand who he actually is probably multi sport
athlete got drafted in the. First round Call of Duty's a
sport now, Ben. Nationally ranked in Call of
Duty. Yeah.
Speaking of athletic quarterbacks, Justin Fields, is
this the high watermark for him at this point?
Because it seems like maybe he didn't seize the opportunity.
What? What are you guys thinking?
It looked like Justin Fields to me.
I mean, I, I love Justin Fields is like a fantasy play,
obviously, but it's like we're, once you get to real life stuff,
it's like it just doesn't ever seem to work out for him.
Like always taking the sacks, like we want quarterbacks that
are willing to buy time and hold the ball a beat longer, right?
You know, and, and find, you know, the, the player on the
scramble drill or whether it's from the pocket.
And so it's like you kind of hoped that like his average time
to throw would eventually turn into that, that he would just
get a better feel for things. This sums up his whole career.
He looked great. And yeah, just yeah.
And fumbling snaps. It's like, come on, like we can
at least get the snap right, You know?
So look, I think Russ is cooked. So if I'm a defensive
coordinator, I will tell you this.
I would be more worried about playing Justin Fields than I
would be Russell Wilson. Yes.
So I think the Steelers know that.
So I still feel like at some point Justin Fields is on on the
on the field, you know, this year as a starter.
But I just knowing Mike Tomlin and his ability to patch things
together and always keep seasons close.
He's a defensive minded mentality.
Like Mike Tomlin doesn't mind just close, you know, coaching
in a close game and hoping the ball bounces his way right.
He's like, hey, you know, it's not the ball.
The ball is not a circle. It could just bounce our way
like he's. Just he hired Arthur Smith, he
hired. Exactly so.
He's watched football in the last couple years I would
assume. I do feel like Russ is starting
early, but I feel like Fields eventually has to play, yeah,
just because I think Russ, Russ can't play in this league the
way that defenses play now. Like it took everything good he
does away. Yeah, that's a great point.
The field stuff is so crazy because I think, you know that
point about he looked great and terrible and like, I think we
all kind of agreed, like when he does have the throw, he's an
accurate passer. He's obviously athletic.
He has like all these traits that should make him a really
good quarterback. And then it's like, is it a
fatal flaw how long he holds the ball or how long he needs to
process or however you have to say.
And that's the question is like, is it a fatal flaw?
And, and typically it is, it keeps him from being able to do
everything else that he does well.
And yet there are these like, moments in time where you're
like, well, when it's not a fatal flaw, everything else
shows up. And that's exciting, like.
I think like a lot of the best passers do what he's doing.
Aaron Rodgers holds the ball, Yeah, Josh Allen, he holds the
ball. Patrick Mahomes holds the ball.
But they just have this innate ability to stay away from the
sacks and the strip fumbles and all those issues that that
Fields runs into. And then like, it's the
consistency for Fields. He can show you he can make
every throw, but then he has the easy one and he just doesn't hit
it. And then they're off the field
because they can't convert 1/3 down and.
I don't know at this point, like I don't have much hope for him
as an NFL quarterback. I just know that if he gets on
the field as a fantasy player, like it's 20 fantasy points per
game, so I'm fine. The thing I find frustrating
about it is that like he he has some serious flaws and his flaws
are like going to lead to back breaking plays that lose you
games, which is awful and coaches hate that so much.
But he also will he'll win you games too.
He's got that kind of upside with his legs and the ability to
attack deep. And so it's like, yeah, like
you're kind of stuck in purgatory if Justin Fields is
your quarterback, but you're stuck in purgatory with a bunch
of other guys, too. Like their car, right?
Like you're, you're winning the Super Bowl with their car.
Like, no, you're not. And you know that.
But like, he's not going to burn you in such like a horrible way.
You know, it reminds me a little bit of like Jameis Winston or
something. I'm like Jameis Winston was fun
and should have gotten a longer run, but you throw interceptions
like that, it's going to get to bench.
He throws the ball into some places where like all the
defenders are, yeah. Yeah, no, exactly like it, it
loses he'll lose you games, but there's like the the guys who.
Win the hype games. And lose you games I like so
much more than coaches. But coaches don't like them.
Coaches don't like them. If you knew you had the best
line in football and could be sure that you could protect a
quarterback longer than any other offensive line in the NFL,
is would Fields then be a like how many quarterbacks would you
take over Fields in that system? Do you think?
It's not even. Sure that I don't know that
Fields would even be that good in that situation because like
I'm not sure if he's that's what I guess I don't know about
Fields. Like he doesn't need more time
or is he just would he just take that time?
And then still take that time. That's why I'm asking, yeah.
Sounds like it's been like doing this thing where we're going to
build the wall. I mean, I don't know what's
happening here, but like he the problem is like as the
quarterbacks own their pressure rate too, It's not just how long
they hold it, it's the way that they handle the pocket, right?
And you know, feels if you're drifting into pressure versus
away from it. And I think that's the
difference with the other guys we named, you know, they have
that innate ability to understand that and feel that or
know that based on their pre snap reads where they think the
pressure's coming from. And for whatever reason, like
feels doesn't have that when he holds onto the ball, like the
bad things happen. But I mean, offensive line
matters. But we've also seen, you know,
over the years, like good quarterbacks overcome bad
offensive line play. I mean, it's it's it's never
good. Like we don't want like pressure
right in your lap, right up the middle, especially like no
quarterback can handle that. But overall, the really good
ones, like they can play around a bad offensive line and still
make things happen. And so that's a challenge for
Fields. Even with a good line, I think
he would still have problems. When you watch Fields and he's
standing there and there's like a guy breaking loose, you know,
in his, in his blind spot and, and you're just like, it's, he's
still three steps away, but you're like he's, it's, it's,
it's the love interest in Happy Gilmore.
When the slug bug is driving down the fairway and she's like
Happy Lookout and then the slug bug hits Happy Gilmore.
Do you guys remember this? I do.
It's like, it's like happy, let's look out.
He got destroyed like 2 seconds later.
Like there's nothing you can do, but you're watching it and you
just know that he's not getting the ball out.
He's going to get, absolutely. Crushed.
Yeah, yeah, but this stuff has me still in on in on fields even
as he rises. I'm, I'm mixing him into three
quarterback fields because like he's not like the, the market
turns so much against him where like it's like, oh, he's just
Lance. Like, no, he is not just Lance.
Like that is that's absurd. And it creates upside.
But now the upside's getting sucked out a little bit because
he's, he's moving up in price. So I don't know, I guess.
He's all over the place. I know that he's moving up.
It's like I'll see him go like round 13 and then it'll be round
16, the next draft. Yeah, though it's yeah.
That's why you should never pay round 13, right?
Don't pay round thirteen. Yeah, I know you like Jalen
Tolbert, Ben. Any thoughts on his rise?
They sat him. They sat him with Cooks and all
those guys. Jalen Brooks made a really nice
play on a deep shot, but everyone else was was out and
they sat him. Dak keeps talking about how he
spent a ton of time with him in the offseason.
They're going to play him. I don't think he's like the
perfect profile, but I also think this is an offense.
We talked about it in the offseason, like behind Lamb is
so bereft of actual target earning profiles.
Like maybe Ferguson takes that year three leap, but was mostly
routes based last year. Brandon Cook's really fell off
in the, you know, the target earning stuff last season.
So there's a lot of opportunity for somebody to step in and
actually have a strong secondary role behind Lamb.
The fact that he did a lot of work with DAC over the
offseason, all those things. It's one of those things where
like a receiver, I'm typically not making situational bets, but
he's really cheap and he is rising as he said, but he's he's
still very cheap for a guy who. Only people took him in the 12th
today. That's the. 12th for me.
Out. He's in the 12th.
I've just fully out. I want to see that.
I want to know why that? 12th round and what?
I assume BBM. Yeah, my gosh.
Yeah. I mean, there's legit, there's
legit like obviously anything after like round 11 is just a
crapshoot at wide receiver. So like you could, you can make
the case that he can. I, I wouldn't take him in the
12th, but you can make the case that if he hits, he hits in a
way that that could pay off. I, I don't want to see why they
wound up taking. So that's, that's wild.
Liam, where are you at on him, Dwayne?
Yeah. I mean, I think he's got the
starting job. I mean, I live here in Dallas.
So I mean, we hear about it all the time.
I think he's probably got a shot to be seven.
I think I've got him projected for like 70% route
participation, which is how I do mine.
I do route participation and then targets per route run.
Those two things together is how I get to my target shares.
So when I look at, you know, Tolbert, I'm like you, I'm not
crazy about his profile. Like it's not been a high target
earner over the first two years, but he did come from a small
school. So if you're going to give
somebody, you know, a little bit of an excuse like that, that
sometimes can be one. And you pointed it out like
Brandon Cook's, like, you know, no pun intended, I think is
cooked like the last two years has been on a downward
trajectory. You know, I did some research on
the man based coverage stuff this offseason and that was a
pretty big, I don't want to say a big indicator.
Like for the things we use, you know, when we say, oh, there was
this high correlation or high R-squared value between, you
know, future fantasy production or just production period.
A lot of these things are pretty low.
But like, it came way up for the guys that as they age.
I wrote an article about it over Fantasy Life.
If people want to check it out, it's free.
I like being, I like stuff like that where you can ask a
question, you know, like you're, I have a specific question like
is this guy cooked? And maybe it it helps us answer
that question. Yeah, you said no pun intended,
but that, I mean, that was kind of intended, right?
No, I feel like you have to say no, pun intended.
So yes, it was intended. But you have to just be the
blame. So like I think it's to your
point, I don't, I'm not huge on wide receivers as situational
bets because we know it's such a talent driven position.
But like once you get to the range where he's going, not in
the 12th round, but once you get to the range where he's
typically going and what's he up to now?
Let's see what's he showing. 184.
Yeah. So where he's going right now?
It's fine. Like, yeah, I mean, if you get
like two weeks out of him, like he's probably like paying his
price. Yeah.
I think he can really easily do that.
He, you know, he comes up with, you know, two games where he
goes 3 for 80 and a touchdown. Like he's probably paying that
off and and. And we know they're going to
throw a ton. I mean, look at their running
back room. Look at.
Their Let's look. At their running back room,
because I'm, I'm taking a lot of Rico Dowdle and he's a riser.
Me too. I've just been kind of taking
him over Zeke. Cause like, I mean, in some
cases I'll take Zeke, but it's like if I have Jonathan Brooks
or if I'm like really hurting at running back of like, you know,
maybe I don't even have a running back two and I've got
like a like a Breece Hall or something.
I decided to really push it then like a Zeke becomes interesting,
obviously for touches, but Dowdle in most of the builds
that I have, I'm like, I got James Conner.
I got yeah, I need upside. I need I have touched.
Like the touch is so cheap this year.
I'm I'm entering that that 130 range with touches already on
the roster. I mean, the upside is pretty
enticing to me. His talent profile is kind of
like like I'm like hoping he's Jerome Ford.
Basically if he's Chuba Hubbard. I'm I feel like I'm winning
everything, but I don't know, thoughts on him.
I mean, he did play in the preseason, but it wasn't wasn't
like that long. Just six snaps.
Yeah, got the start. Yeah.
So I mean, I, I'm, I'm with you. Like Dowdle's been my preference
and also because of ADP and like there's just been this gap
between them. I think like if you had to
choose today, you know, Zeke probably is like the starter,
even though the reports last week were that battles the face.
You know, I don't know, like, those are kind of opinions,
right? They're not necessarily like
camp reports of, oh, he's getting much more work than
Zeke. I feel like they're going to be
pretty evenly split. We know that the Cowboys trust
Zeke. And like one of the other things
that I've studied a lot, like as much as we love efficiency and
we know that it we still want it in our running backs.
Like it's a great tiebreakers. That's how you get guys like
CMC, Bijan, Breece Hall, like these guys that can totally blow
up fantasy. But coaches like, I don't know
that they care about it as much as we do.
They just want guys out there on the field they feel like they
can depend on unless they've got a superstar that they know they
can go to. And Zeke's probably going to
check those boxes. So as much as I love Dowdle and
I've been drafting him a ton, I'm really interested to see
like how high he goes, like how much higher does he go?
But I am with you. Like if if I were to look up
week two and be like, Oh my God, one of these two guys is going
to win you your league. I think we all know it's Dowdle.
Dowdle suddenly surprises us. I don't think that's going to be
Zeke. I think Zeke will be the guy
that to your point, Pat, you're like, OK, it's fine.
I'm getting 12 fantasy points per week.
Which I really mean. Until what?
Yeah. And I didn't take him, you know,
until round 12 of a draft or round eleven of a draft, like.
Right. So I feel like that's going to
be there. Both.
Fantasy points per week. Probably not, but.
You'll get downs if he scores touchdowns like if Zeke right?
You'll get weeks of. 12 fantasy points is maybe the better.
Maybe not every week, but you'll get weeks of 12 fantasy points
and if you structure a build where like ten of those are
really helpful, then you know, I think it's what?
Do you think Dwayne? That sounds real out though to a
ceiling for sure, and dump gave him all the work inside the
file. He was APR scam last year like
they were they were feeding him. And and hey, to your point,
though, like been like, I do think, and I've talked about
this, I've written about this, I think the Dallas running backs
could be sneaky in the passing game this year.
Because if if Cooks can't earn targets right, if he can't go
out and do his part, if Jalen Tolbert really is just kind of
who he's already been. And then even if Ferguson takes
a little step forward with him and CD, like they're still going
to have to get the ball to someone.
And we see this all the time. These swing pass backs, they're
not really guys you can integrate into like a first or a
second read kind of passing game, but you know, everybody's
covered. That doesn't run as much as you
used to. Like a lot of those things turn
into check downs. And what do you think is the
probability being in Dallas that they actually bring somebody in
after these cuts happen because I, I mean.
I think it's pretty high. I think it's kind of high, man.
I think Dowel's going to be the RB three-week 1 is what we're
going to find out. It's going to.
Play very well could be, yeah. That's why I'm interested to see
how high Dowdle goes, because at some point I would be out like I
wrote it, I wrote. It so you're you're thinking who
comes in though P Ryan. Yeah, maybe P Ryan.
Yeah. It's not great, but I don't I
don't know who the answer to that question is.
It's a tough. To me, the the Royce Freeman
stuff, which people kind of freaked out about.
I'm not freaking out about Royce Freeman.
I'm not either, but I actually like it.
I want Stephen Jones to think he's got the best RB3IN football
for. Real.
OK, I see what you're saying. Yeah.
Like that's great for me if I'm drafting Rico.
That is a good. Point.
Don't sign anyone you dude. You guys already got Royce
Freeman. Like people are idiots for
letting you have him, didn't he? What's the point?
To your point on efficiency, Dwayne, one thing I think
coaches do care about is consistency and success rate.
I I like NFL next gen's RROE percentage for this.
Zeke was at a 42% success rate last year, which is good.
Like he he was like among. Yeah, like he can't run anymore,
but he's he's got like the the 34 year old Frank Gore thing
where like he's got no athleticism anymore, but still
has what he always had, which is an ability to read holes and get
that small. Through the he has great vision.
Yeah, I mean, that's he's got running back skills and it's
like that's I, I don't want to draft Zeke, but I do have to
admit that like he's. RB close in that behind Khalil
Herbert. He's right in front of Zach Moss
like he was. Funny, he's like ROI and all
these things are not sticky year over year, but coaches do care
about. They care about, yeah, I mean,
that stuff, most of a lot of the Roe stuff really comes down to
your freaking offensive line. Like, you know, I mean, and
like, how many defenders were in the box?
Like, that's such a huge driver, which is Zeke's pretty good.
Like with a lot of defenders in the box, he's not gonna break a
long run, but he's not gonna lose you yards.
And like you said, then he still knows how to just kind of get
skinny in the hole and still have power, like right at the
point of contact if you need 2 yards, like he can get it.
And so, yeah, coaches like that. Yeah, like Latavius Murray
looked fine doing that last year and now isn't going to play
football this year, right? Like, there's these aging backs
that are good at that exact thing, being a downhill runner,
and Zeke's obviously that Pat. Some other names.
I saw somebody mention Elijah Mitchell.
Like if the 49ers wanted to move on from him now that they got
all this Jordan Mason stuff, who's on this place?
Kendra Miller? Everyone was going to get cut.
Give me Rico. I'll take Rico over Kendra all
day. This guy, here's the thing,
because Rico's established himself over the course of a
training camp, is splitting reps with the ones and Kendra got
himself booted out of New Orleans.
I'm just like, I don't, you know, So much of it comes down
to the coaches trusting these guys, and Kendry is like an
ultimate untrustworthy dude. Apparently on the coach that
doesn't want with the coach that doesn't want to trust.
Him. Third round pick.
Has Dennis Allen ever given a a
positive compliment to one? To Taysom Hill.
He loves Taysom Hill as much. As anyone loves anyone that you
skipped past Rasheed Rice, I wanted to get your guys thoughts
on that. He played 100% of the snaps with
Mahomes. I'm probably stealing this
straight, straight from your article, Dwayne, but I, I saw
that he played 100% and then Xavier was in there a lot.
But I the I think the specific number was 75% from your
article. I didn't track the exact numbers
on those two, but to me that was like really bullish that they
have a lot of receivers and they didn't mess around with like the
me cola, this guy more stuff. Those guys played with Carson
Wentz after and they went with the guys that we've been
drafting. Rice has been kind of just
trickling back up after he fell way down.
But I also saw ETR mentioned the other day that they've moved him
down to A1 game suspension, even though I I think it was Levitan
mentioned like this isn't even technically possible, but we're
we're like adjusting down the possibility that he may not even
get suspended this year. I think Rice because the price
fell so much and then it rose and then everyone's anchored to
the old price. He just continues.
He's probably been on this list every week for you guys, right?
He's just continually rising 4 spots but like is probably still
multiple rounds undervalued at this point if he's actually
going to play 100% of the snaps with Patrick Mahomes.
If he wasn't getting suspended, we we get the news, the case,
they set a they set a date for the case.
It's February 2025. Zero percent chance he's going
to be suspended. Where are you guys taking Rashid
Rice I. Feel like he's I'm a little
downer. Yeah, I think, I think he'd be
back to the 2-3 turn like he was early in the offseason.
I I do think there's some risk with him at that spot because so
much of his stuff is scheme based.
Yeah. And that was pre worthy.
That was pre worthy. That's pre worthy.
The worthy stuff is brown, even though he sounds like he's going
to be back. That sounds like it's going to
open up what they're like. They want to put put the
vertical element back on film, but the defenses want to stop
that. And then Rashe Rice just catches
9. Million passes underneath, just
standing right here. I'm right here whenever you need
me. 10 * a game. Running curls.
I guess the. Question though is do they love
this? Do they continue to give him all
of that? Because Xavier Worthy is really
good with the ball in his hands at the line of scrimmage too.
Like at Texas, 25% of his targets came, you know, within 5
yards at the line of scrimmage. You know, he can do other
things. He can obviously get deep.
We've seen all that stuff in training camp.
But I mean, there are other playmakers that you can also get
the ball around the line of scrimmage.
So like that, that would be my biggest concern is so many
things were schemed for Rasheed Rice.
I, I don't want to overthink it though.
I mean, I just want to look at a player that was really good in
year one. And like you said, Ben, he plays
with freaking Patrick Mahomes. So I would be back in on him as
an early round three pick. Like, OK, you, you have to pick
Ben, you're on the clock. We know that Rashe Rice is not
suspended, which Drew Drew Davenport's a great follow.
If you guys don't follow him on for legal stuff on Twitter.
He basically thinks this thing's getting kicked down the road,
like they're going to kick the can down the road on it.
Rice probably playing every game this year if you knew that Elite
neighbors or was she Rice? Oh my God, I'm probably taking
neighbors, but I'm. Taking neighbors too.
Cuz I think you're right. It's.
Close though, right? It's close.
That's the spot. Your spot?
Yeah, Yep, that's the D. Right there with neighbors right
there. What about DK Metcalf?
You guys take him over DK Metcalf?
I would take Rice. I thought he was going to do
someone like Metcalf and I think I would have been comfortable
saying Rice. Neighbors is where he really
twisted my arm. Devonta Smith's right there too,
yeah. You know.
Yeah, that's a close one. Like I'm too pretty hit like.
An Eagles off 2.4 yards per route run with Patrick Mahomes
is a rookie. He played 100% of the snaps in
this in this pre season. Game and I've been on the don't
overthink this train with Rice too or because people love to
talk about the A dot and the you know the schemed usage.
He got used on a bunch of screens, but he also earned
targets. And I'm actually like, I go the
other way with that. Like people, I did a whole rant
like 580P chase things ago. I was like, check who else got a
lot of screens. Like seriously, Like if you're
going to tell me about screens, check who else got them because
it's a lot of #1 wide. Receivers the good.
Players, the good players. That's a good thing, yeah.
That's kind of the other point is now you Add all these other
weapons that they may want to get into some of.
Those worthy could get some of those, Yeah, like.
Absolutely, like that's the beauty of Debo.
You know, he's getting all those.
They just let Ayuk be the man beater, right.
And so when you play the man, you know, you get the man heavy
looks. It's backside play.
They're going to Ayuk. I mean Brock Purdy's essentially
playing Madden out there. He's driving back.
Oh, it's zone Debo. Oh, it's man Ayuk.
Like I mean, you know, or Kittle, you know, Kittle can
destroy any linebacker or safety pretty much in coverage.
So I think that's the one, you know, small concern and like I
wasn't huge on Rashe Rice coming out now.
Like when I look at players like over two years, his rookie pro,
his coming in rookie profile, then after year one, you put
those two things together, it's still really positive.
But like I can kind of squint and be like, OK, like I could
see a path to where he's not. Maybe maybe he turns out to be
more like a juju. You know, I don't want to put
not to put bad juju on him because that was a pun intended.
But also like when you look at guys that have the the
questionable profiles, it's kind of like why?
And for him it was mostly all of it.
Well, a small school and and the biggest production year was his
final year, but that year was a 96 catch year, right?
Like at a college level in 12 games, like a really high volume
type thing, which he did immediately.
So as far as like the questionable profile thing, I'm
with you on that too, But I've thought it through.
Like the parts of his questionable profile are, I
don't know, I don't know how to how to frame that, but are at
least a little bit enticing that the the what he did do as a
senior was the 96 like a really high volume.
Like I feel like he could just have so many receptions.
What's funny, I thought he'd like, if he was to make it in,
the NFLI would have told you it was going to be like a
possession receiver. Like he was really good at like
get, you know, even though he would kind of get open late, you
know what I mean? And even though he was covered,
like he wasn't really covered in college, like there was a lot of
real tight coverage stuff where he would catch the ball.
But really the way he comes out and wins in year one is like as
this yak monster, which I really honestly, you know, didn't
expect at all. But, like, that's the beauty of
Andy Reid. Yeah, that adds a huge element.
But I mean, this is an offense that has been first in the NFL
and pass rate over expected. That's the other thing we don't
want to overthink. It's not just the Mahomes
factor, but the pass volume, right?
Like I think he could catch like 8 balls a game and you're like,
OK, this is really good. I like this.
I like a lot of perceptions. Even if Dorothy's getting stuff,
even if other guys are getting. Stuff.
That's why I asked the neighbors thing.
Like 7 targets even if like if his targets went down.
Like how many targets do you have to get from Daniel Jones to
be worth the same number of targets from Patrick Mahomes?
Right. Right.
Like 6 targets from Mahomes is probably worth 8 or 9 from
Daniel Jones, like something like that.
You know that that I probably overstate it probably probably 7
1/2 like 7 1/2 versus 6 is probably like about where it's.
At I think I'd take the six Mahomes targets there versus 7
1/2 Jones. Yeah, give me the six Mahomes
targets. God, you're making a a rice over
neighbors case all right. I mean, this is what my brain
does to me. These are the things I wake up
thinking about. You know, like on Seinfeld, you
know, he jots down a a a joke that he can't read.
I jot down some stupid thing. I have no clue.
To wake up to rice over neighbors question mark.
Yeah, like what was I thinking? I don't even know what happened.
Yeah, I I would say the take away of this is draft Rice while
it's still in the 5th. Oh, man, yeah, yes, dude, you
guys come back and like it's a fun thing to do.
I've got, I went back like a week ago and just looked at all
those teams. Like I had one team where I got
Mahomes, Kelsey, I got Rice in like the 80s.
Man, I have a team with, with Mahomes, Kelsey and Worthy and
I, I took, yeah, I took Worthy over Rice at the time, like cuz
that's where I got Worthy in the 6th and I took him over Rice
where now, you know, you would, you wish you could sub in Rice.
But yeah, I mean, he at one point, like I think I probably
thought Rice might come back to me in the 7th because of the
time. That was not unusual.
I need to go back and look at my Rice scenes.
I had one point like 27%. I was like I was over 30%
because I do all the slows in batches and I was doing all the
slows when he was going in the 7th and I took him in the 7th a
fuck like. Every time those teams are.
Amazing. Yeah.
But now I'm down to like 24% because the next batch I was
like, well, he's going in the 5th now and I already had 30
plus percent. So but I I don't.
Want, I don't, I don't want to chase him up and then yeah.
Yeah, that's kind of how I need to just take him again.
I just want to keep taking him, yeah.
What about chase Brown? You guys chasing him up?
He's he's at one O 2, but I think he's this probably doesn't
even reflect man, like he's kind of moving to the 8-9 turn
really. I so I was getting number one.
I like to Chase Brown to start. And then like some smart people
in the industry were kind of like, I'm not so sure about
Chase Brown. I was like, OK, yeah, I'll let
him fall down. So I stopped drafting him.
I wish that I had kept on drafting him because now he's
getting pushed up to the point where I just wrote about him
like last week and like he's risen another round like since
then. And I was recommending him.
And now I watch this game and there's just man, there's a lot
of concerns. Like, I mean, he's missing wide
open holes. I I just I know Zach Moss was
sick technically, so that's why he didn't, you know, play in the
game. I think Chase Brown is the more
explosive of the two players, but I worry, you know, he's
like, could he be like the Justin Fields of running back?
Could he be the DeAndre Swift? Like did this all the time.
Remember when Deuce Staley just like be so pissed at DeAndre
Swift because he wouldn't just go to the hole like they wanted.
He wanted to bounce everything outside and we're seeing that
with Chase. Like he did that last year and I
kind of dismissed. I'm like, OK, I'm just not going
to overreact. Like the sample's too small to
like freak out. He had, you know, high volume in
college, all those things at the end of his career.
So I was fine. But then like the things that we
were worried about earlier in the pre, earlier in the
offseason like that, though, he did those things this weekend.
Like he did the same things again.
And so now I'm like, I still love the upside.
I love the offense, I love the explosive play making ability.
But like, is he, is he going to be one of these guys that does
the things that frustrates the coaches and keeps him off the
field? I do worry about that.
I love that they're like, this is like the first thought I've
heard about him. I love that there's like a
little bit of concern in what you're saying because I've been
trying to like actually, you know, steel man this and test it
a little bit. And I, I think those are very
fair points. I, I hadn't really heard that
take on him, not necessarily in the holes he needs to hit and
stuff. The thing I keep going back to
is how Illinois actually like did use him as a workhorse at
times. People think he's like the scat
back. But if Moss is injured or out,
and I think, I mean, obviously Moss was just sick, but that's
sort of what I took away from the usage this weekend.
It was like it looked like brown was the only dude right.
Then they, they went to Trayvion Williams or whoever later.
But it's like, man, he could consolidate.
He could be a workhorse in the way that we want our, you know,
handcuffs or zero RB targets in this range.
But he's getting pricey for sure, man.
He's another one, right? I'm glad I did take some of them
because I I. Yeah, I moved him up last week
up to buy Jonathan Brooks like because I've I've kind of been
stubborn on Jonathan Brooks about not moving him down with
ADP, but I've got him I had I moved him up right into that
range with Brooks and Jalen Warren.
And so now watching this film, this.
I don't know why Jalen Warren's in that range, but.
I know, I'm sorry. Jalen Board was.
In the 50s. So you moved him into the 50s
then? Yeah, no, it's like around Pat.
So they gave him the second round.
He's my Jalen Tolbert to pee. Yeah, yeah.
I mean, I that's kind of where I have him.
He comes out at like 94 in our ranks, I think.
Yeah, I'm right around there. Yeah.
So he's. I don't know if I can go further
is my point. Like how much further can I go?
I maybe I can. I do really love the offense so.
Yeah. And I mean, I, I definitely, I,
I had some of those concerns. I played it similarly to you
where I was like, I just wasn't taking him enough.
I was like 10% on him when he was in that one, one 20s range
for Yeah, he was. Really falling.
I'm so pissed at myself. For that, I know I'm pissed at
myself too, but I've been trying to like to me, there's not that
much of A opportunity cost to to grab him.
It's like he's in a group of guys that we also have kind of
lukewarm feelings about. So while he's still in that like
lukewarm zone, I've just been prioritizing him to try to get.
It's a flat spot, like the neighbors thing.
So I just got like, well, OK, over him.
Yes, over him. Yes, over him.
Exactly, So that's where I'm
like, all right, let me let me load up now, because if he does
start to challenge, Zamir White has been kind of like a, you
know, I'm like this guy is definitely the starter and I
know it's a worse offense, but like I the you know, I get the
certainty there. Once he moves up into that kind
of range, certainly like Jonathan Brooks, I'm taking
Jonathan Brooks over Chase Brown.
So if he starts to like hit that kind of level of back, then I'll
I'll be out at that point. But I've been trying to be
aggressive while he's still a little bit behind those guys.
The chat just asked Tennessee backs versus Cincinnati backs,
and they've been going higher and I've been basically all
offseason being like, I think Cincinnati's offense is going to
be way better. I was concerned about Tennessee,
but I actually left that Tennessee game a little bit more
into their backs. They got 10 touches combined
across 14 plays on the two first team drives.
Lots of targets, lot of targets that I think they caught like 3
balls on those 10 touches and then seven carries.
Spears didn't play quite as much as Pollard.
I thought Pollard actually looked a little bit like that.
You were like, is the burst back after last year and like a
little bit like the old player that he used to be like I've
been pretty out on Pollard. I moved him up quite a bit back
to where like he goes because I've been below.
But that was one where I left that game with a pretty big take
away from this weekend where I was like, man, I don't think,
well, Levis is good. I didn't think he was looked
very comfortable reading out stuff downfield.
But the stuff about Brian Callahan's gonna like have him
throw to the running backs looked very clear to me.
I was like OK well maybe I do need to be on the on the running
backs more so. Spears, like, you know, didn't
have as many yards as Pollard. Like if you watch it like he was
getting blown up in the backfield, there were defenders
back there every play. And man, the touchdown he scored
inside the five was a weak cutback, man, like just a
beautiful cutback. So yeah, I'm with you.
I like both players. I could see this stuff flip
flopping every week. I mean, this is one of those
that we talked about at the beginning, like, hey, we see the
tip of the iceberg, but how much of the tip of the iceberg like
matches to all the other things that are sub level to, you know,
under the under the water that we've heard?
Like the coaches have already told us all offseason, like they
spent the money on Pollard. They said they wanted guys that
were interchangeable, that they wanted to be able to do both
things. And then we saw, thought we've
heard those things in camp that that's how they're getting used.
And then now we see it in the first preseason game, they do
that exact same thing. Like you mentioned, Pollard a
little bit ahead, 5757% of the snaps versus 43% for Spears.
Pollard had 50% of the design rushing attempts, 38% for
Spears. But Spears was slightly ahead in
the passing game, 50% route participation with the starters
versus 33% for Pollard. But I could see all of those
same facets just flipping the next week, right?
And it being actually Pollard, they got a little more time on
passing. Now, I think a lot of this one
could come down to which drives were you on the field, you know,
And then now they did interchange them during the
drives too. So it wasn't just, oh, Pollard
got to drive and then Spears got to drive.
But I like both of these players at cost.
And I've been drafting both of them like because I just, even
though I liked Spears because he was cheaper, like they were
close enough. Like in profiles I was like,
well, I want to be drafting both of them.
So when I can get Pollard, I want to take him when I get
spear because I have trouble. Like sometimes people like, oh,
why take Pollard when I could just get Spears?
That's. What I was doing?
Because they're often, I think the same pick is why like you're
like. Now.
Now they are. Yeah.
They, they weren't like, you know, two weeks ago now.
And now like back then I was like, well, I think Spears the
better talent profile too. Paula just shown some efficient
to see the client. But I do think that was a
mistake. I think I like what?
You're it can be a trap, like I've done it before too, with
different not the not these two players, but I've done it, you
know, in the it's the same thing that people do right now with
Jaden Reed, right versus oh, I can wait and get Christian
Watson or Dantevian Wicks, you know, or Dobbs.
Right. Yeah, actually.
What can be right sometimes the the the more expensive player
can be right sometimes I mean. Well, especially when they're
all good. Yeah, yeah.
You know, yeah. The consumer, Ballard was like,
maybe he's not good anymore, but that was a big one for me
watching him. I was like, OK, he doesn't look
bad. I mean like, 'cause he is 20,
what, 28 now 2728 and and had the efficiency decline last year
and you're like, this can be a little.
Yeah, I feel like it was probably some of the tightrope
stuff, you know, but it's hard to say, right?
Yeah, he did. He did have burst on that one
plane that was a wide open hole. You know, his long run.
He eventually got chased down and tackled from behind.
He kind of went down weird. I was like, Oh no, like, don't
don't like have that injury again, because that's how he got
the tightrope injury was that tackle from behind.
But I I still honestly between the two thought even though
Spears was getting bottled up because of the other team, looks
like still probably has the most juice.
Yeah, I, I should, I should clarify, I was way behind on
Pollard, but still drafting Spears.
Like I had Spears ranked way ahead of him.
And and I just left that game. Like I, I want to be in on both
these guys a little bit. And if if like Chase Brown gets
so expensive you can't get him. I, I now think those guys are,
are a good fall back. And I was somebody who was out
on that prior to this pre season week 1.
Have you been have you guys been sorry back to the Bengals?
Have you guys been drafting Zach Moss as he's falling any or
you're just like I think? I've drafted him like once or
twice since the fall, but I think he needs to fall a little
bit further. Like if he's, you know, I mean,
we had it as Brown was available in like the one 20s and and Moss
was kind of going where Brown is now, I guess a little higher.
But I'm like, not that he needs to fall to the one 20s, but he's
at like one O 2. I'd like him to fall at least
closer to 110 I think. The challenge is if, if brown
like craps the bed by some chance, there's upside.
I do think like, yeah, I do think that Moss could basically
be mixing. Right.
You know. Do you like?
Do you like like Naji over Moss? Would you take Pollard over
Moss? Where, where, where would he fit
with those two guys? Man Naji's.
Way over Moss, I mean Naji. I ADP but like in your actual
like. Yeah, no, I have Naji rated ADP.
As much as I like Warren, I think Naji's totally fine.
I think they're gonna just run the ball a ton.
Sure. Yeah, I think they're gonna run
the ball plenty, but I just feel so much more bullish about the
Bengals offense, you know what I mean?
Yeah. I kind of like would rather
draft Moss than Naji. That that's kind of where I've
been. But yeah, I haven't taken a lot
of Naji because I just never can click on him over Jalen Warren.
Well, that's what I do. I just click one.
Yeah. I have not.
Especially it's like every time I have an excuse to, it's like,
well, I don't have this build yet with Jalen Warren.
I can't take Naji here. But even though I've got like
Jalen's my second most. Last thing I'd want is this
build to be right and I have Naji instead of Warren.
Exactly. But when?
Warren, That's the sick shit, I think.
When I have Warren lined up and he gets sniped and Naji's still
there, I do make a point to take him.
Just do it. Yeah.
I'm at the 4% Naji. I haven't ranked at ADP but I
don't really draft. Them that much you got the
comfort. I got the blanket, I got the
blanket. Perfect guy to have an exposure
blanket on. I think the I want to ask, so
Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell looks like we're getting maybe a
flip of of the RV 2. But Mason is a guy who hasn't
really been drafted. And kind of curious to get your
thoughts, Dwayne, on any of the guys, whether it's Mason or
anyone else that you're drafting now that aren't that haven't
really been drafted at 100% clip so far, so potential leverage
guys that you know, we have access to in August that people
in in May didn't know to draft. Well, man, RIP Trey Sermon.
Yeah, that that was one. I guess, you know, we'll see.
This was still early in the preseason.
It's funny. We act like these guys are
completely dead, but. That was rough, man.
I've been. Taking.
Too. That was rough.
And the problem with sermon is like, I just don't believe in
him at all. So like if you gave if like he
like. Passed his.
Peaky toe. I'd be like, sorry man, I had to
like work. To talk Segal into him in our
pros versus Joe's draft and he was our 20th round pick and I
was like, no, this is the right running back pick here, Sean.
We took him in the 20th round and now he's just going to be a
complete zero because of injury. I'm like, damn it.
Like you think Elijah Elijah Mitchell like is an interesting
one. You know, I don't know why Kyle
Shanahan continues to like just burn, you know, mid round picks
on running backs when he can find these guys as well as he
does. His dad did the same thing
though, So it's like apple doesn't far, doesn't fall far
from the tree. I'm like, don't you guys
remember Olandis, Gary and Mike Anderson?
No one listening to this show knows who those people.
Are but there's so many who's that really skinny or Broncos
running back that we got excited about it was he's like he's like
180 lbs. I'll look it up.
There's there's some hilarious. Back in the day we had we had
Tatum Bells. So they have two profile they.
Look way back. Types that they like, like one
of my first articles ever in fantasy.
And then I just didn't ride in for a while 'cause like I was in
a different career and professionally I just got super
busy. But it was called S2K, so
Shanahan or SK2, so Shanahan, Kubiak, right?
It was all about their scheme and the running backs, the type
of running backs they they pick. And it's like these guys that a
lot of people consider plotters, but they have great vision,
right? Like Arian Foster.
But the funny part is they don't even know when they have a good
one or not. Like they just draft a bunch of
them and they eventually find one.
So like Arian Foster was like the example, you know, of where
where like Charchander West is the example of like, you know,
when it didn't work out. Lorenzo Taliafaro was an example
of like when it didn't work out like.
Ruben Drones was a full back and then they made him a yes back.
But then they also had this other archetype that they
wanted, like the true explosive player, the Elijah Mitchell, the
Tatum Bell, the Clinton Portis. Clinton Portis was the best
example of like that, like really working out a Chan is the
example of what that looks like, you know, with Mike McDaniel.
So they have these two archetypes that they want to
have. And whenever you look, you know,
at Elijah Mitchell, like he's obviously the explosive one.
But whenever we look at Jordan Mason, like he's the guy that
like he's not super fast, but man, like patient runner sees
the field really well. He's not like super powerful,
but has enough powerful to like run through arm wraps and
tackles. He can bounce off.
He's got good contact. So he's one of these guys that
like, if he did ever find himself like getting 60% of the
workload somehow in the 49ers offense, like he would be a
running back one like I, I don't have any doubt about that at
this point about Jordan Mason. The challenge is like, you know,
would it ever, you know, come to that?
Because eventually Elijah Mitchell will be healthy, like
if the assuming the 49ers don't cut him and then it's probably a
split, you know, between those guys.
But I have mixed in Jordan Mason a little bit because Elijah
Mitchell is always hurt and I've kind of chilled out on Mitchell.
I was taking him quite a bit like in the last two rounds,
especially like when I had Detroit guys and things like
that, where it just kind of led me to doing it some.
But I have been mixing in Jordan Mason in the very last round.
Pat was it Selvin Young? No, it wasn't Sylvan Young.
It was like Sylvan. Young wasn't.
Yeah. It was this dude.
He was like, so skinny like it was absurd.
Yeah, Young was a little bigger back for sure.
Yeah, Tatum Bell's was was pretty small, right.
I know. How big was?
No, Slayton was bigger than that.
He was under Kubiak in Houston. I'm 180.
How big wasn't? Yeah.
How big was Tatum Bell? I don't know who the 100 is.
Oh, was it? Was it the?
Was it the running back from Oklahoma, Quentin Griffin?
No. He was Deuce Vaughn basically
before Deuce Vaughn. You guys go look.
I wonder if he's like 5-7 I. Don't see Cecil?
Cecil Sapp. I'm like, no, that was a wasn't
no. It wasn't OSHA Moreno.
He's a bigger dude. Yeah, people are.
Saying Tatum Bell. You guys do Tatum Bell feels
like. We just all look up weights.
Right. What?
Mike Anderson? No M213.
Tatum Bell, Jesus. Yeah, it wasn't Tatum.
Bell. He was bigger than I thought he
was. It was.
Like this? Little was that big.
Yeah, it was. You know what The funny thing
is? It's probably not even a
Shanahan back. It's probably post the Shanahan
years, but maybe it was under Kubiak or something.
After they I'm going to find this dude.
All right, set you guys up with a topic and then I'll figure out
who this Broncos back was. Doesn't even play for these
teams. No kitchen.
Griffin was 57194. That's the closest thing I've
found. That's a good one, Leget.
Leget's an interesting one. Is like this has been a bad run
out for Leget, but like he's not getting cut, like he's not a
practice squad. Candidate Pat Is it Ronnie
Hillman? Ronnie Hillman?
Yes, it was Ronnie Hillman. Ronnie Hillman.
That's it was 90. Yeah.
Chad did it. Thank you, Chad.
Ronnie Hillman. Yeah, Let's, let's pull him up.
So he was from San Diego State. Yeah.
Yeah, yeah. That's who it was.
And I don't think really ever did anything, but I was like,
Ronnie Hillman, dude, this guy's no.
But back in the day, I remember drafting some Ronnie Hillman way
too damn early, I'll tell you. That third round pick in 2012?
He's 200, so not. Quite.
I remember when Tatum Bell was on the cover of Fantasy Football
Index and it was like the next great bro.
I was like, that's bold for a magazine like way back in the
day I used to. Read that magazine way back in
the day too, man. Me too, man, me too, they had.
Steve Slayton, you mentioned him.
They had him like RB41 year and I was.
Yeah, he had that. Amazing.
Because I was like, these guys are crazy, man.
They love Steve Slayton. This is way too much.
I drafted too much Steve Slayton that year because I had drafted
him the year before as just a late round dart and he like won
fantasy championships. Yeah.
I thought he was awful the next
year so. Brutal.
Yeah, he was terrible. West Virginia.
Steve Slayton. Yeah, what were you going to say
about Legette, Pat? Well, I just feel like this is
kind of the time to buy Legette. Like everybody's out.
He's actually getting back to practice now.
It's been a bad offseason for sure, and he'll probably bust,
but he's getting so cheap and we're actually losing rookies
that we are hopeful about that didn't have draft capital and
now he's like falling into that range.
Mingo. Also didn't look good this
weekend like. Yeah, that's yeah.
So Mingo. Mingo was doing normal Mingo
things. So not surprising, but it is
nice to see. So I don't know, I think Leget
is suddenly becoming pretty interesting and and maybe we
grab the low point of his value potentially.
I've been taking him as he's fallen.
Nice, nice. Yeah.
Just I, I, I totally hear your narrative, but like once I get
into that range and I look at the other names, like I just
still like, OK, well, they still invested a first round pick, you
know, in the guy. I, I don't love his profile.
He doesn't grate out great. But it's kind of like what you
talked about, you know, the last year for Rasheed Rice, even
though he's an older prospect, it was a great last year and it
was in the SEC. So like, I mean, there is
something like that I can get on board with with with Liget and
Adam Thielen's aging. Jonathan Mingo did not look good
again, you know. Got a throw to him open in the
middle of the field and hit him right in the chest and dropped
it. It's like, all right, well,
there's your Jonathan Mingo camp.
But I didn't, I didn't have a chance to see that when he
jumped up to catch it. Did he just start spinning
around in circles like helicopter then flying flying
flying around the field? Did he get some weird Madden
animation where he just gets stuck?
No. Yeah.
He's a glitch man, but he's a human glitch.
This. Is weird stuff.
Remember that catch last year, Dwayne?
We had a lot of fun on ship chasing where it he was near the
sideline and he jumped like, Oh my God, he needs to get out of
bounds. Like he was trying so hard to
get his feet out of bounds. Like you had to try.
I do remember, I remember thinking how was that even
possible? Yeah, it's impressive.
It's so impressive that like, I mean, it is hard to be that
backwards from what you want to do.
This is the this is playing best ball Dwellian.
He will probably bust, but you should draft him.
That's called the pick outside the top 150 in best ball.
We need we we need to get these guys, you know, who have some
upside, but it's probably not going to work.
And I think at this price, at this price, like, you know, I
for a while I was like inverse Jalen Polk.
I was like, I'm taking Jalen Polk.
This guy's got a clear runway to, you know, getting out there
and like gets had the clear runway, but now the runway, you
know, it's it's a little iced over.
What about Leget versus Jaylen McMillan?
Who's the big riser? That's where I have him.
I have those guys ranked next to each other.
That's a really interesting comp because I I don't have a ton of
pushback for why you wouldn't take McMillan.
He's had such a strong camp. I guess the reason to take Leget
is to bet that he can emerge just like the clear #2 target
down the stretch And, and really, it's a bet on draft
capital and and athleticism. Yeah, McMillan.
Before I ask that back ahead of McMillan, I had McMillan ahead
of him for a moment, but I haven't.
Like I just had McMillan ranked aggressive.
I haven't both had a brand of coats.
That's how aggressively I'm ranking these guys compared to
yeah. Yeah.
This weekend, McMillan, the other nice thing, he was playing
outside. So we we didn't have Evans and
Godwin obviously in the game. It was McMillan and Trey Palmer.
They were the two guys that started for the Bucks.
But McMillan, you know, he played mostly slot.
Well, you know this like then you can wax poetic hair on on
McMillan. You're you're the dude for that.
But he did he has been playing outside.
We've heard that, you know, son in camp that they've been, you
know, moving them all over the formation.
So he did that in this game. Like his first target he earned
right out of the gate was from outside, you know, was a dig
route on, you know, where he's cutting in across, you know, the
defender. So if something did happen, you
know, with Godwin, we already expect him to probably be the
lead slot receiver, but even now maybe, you know, that's probably
a good thing for him and 11 personnel.
Maybe he really is the guy that's going to start on the
outside. I, I think it's kind of tricky
because Palmer like is the guy that gives you that vertical
threat, but really you're using Evans in that way too.
So I, I do like McMillan. He can take a look at over him,
but I I really like it. The one thing that I've said
through the offseason and that was really on display here with
this couple catches is you'll never see a wide receiver go
down quicker at first contact. So don't expect him to start
breaking tackles down, down down the field.
If you see his two catches, go watch his, you know, pre season
highlights. It's like he doesn't even really
try to to gain more. Hey man, we need week 17 that's
months away, so stay helpful Jalen, he's he'll.
Get open and catch passes. But yeah, I mean, he's not going
to be, he's not going to be a big yak guy.
I do something selfish. I got to bounce in a minute, but
I wanted to get your thoughts on Polk.
You know, he didn't start this weekend.
I'm not that worried about that. He was still on the field right
away after, especially when you consider who started the game,
right? I mean, we've got guys that we
know shouldn't be on a football field like Taekwon Thornton,
like they just shouldn't be out there.
KJ Osborne, not worried about it.
Like I think Polk's a starter week one.
But let me let me hear your your thoughts on Polk because I've
drafted a ton of him. So I really love him.
Because of the UW stuff. Is that are you asking, Pat?
Yeah, yeah, you, you you know more about him than anybody.
So the way that the way that I've described it is I liked
Polk way more than McMillan as a fan.
And then, you know, you're really digging the numbers.
You're digging some of the target earning.
And to me, he's that type of receiver that the film guys are
going to really like because he does everything you want.
I think he's better for an NFL team.
I understand why the Patriots took him higher than McMillan,
but McMillan I think has the higher ceiling because McMillan
just like had the higher targets per hour run, had the 1000 yard
season alongside the doones day because he gets open and he
makes you know, the the plays without necessarily like he
makes things like makes easy plays, whereas Polk is like
fairly inconsistent at times. So Louis described it as like I,
when I for fantasy, I care more about the, the worst 20% of your
routes than the best 20% of your routes, which is kind of weird,
right? But like, you know, we obviously
we want the like really strong target shares And I that's the
part of Polk's game that's a little bit of a concern.
He wasn't hyper reliable in some spots.
He's in like dude made so many big plays.
He's such a good contested catch guy.
I understand why people like him and he's going to go win the
ball in spots. That is like, again, good for an
NFL team. I worry about his ability to,
like, consistently win targets over the whole sample of all of
his routes, which I think is just such an important thing at
receiver. So I'm a little bit behind,
certainly behind pad and a little bit behind.
I think most people on him and on his profile, especially in an
offense that projects for the fewest points of any, you know,
with a look at headlines of any offense in the NFL, you're like,
it's kind of a tricky, tricky pass game.
But if May hits, Pat, you've made this point a bunch of
times. If May hits and it's a, you
know, systemic thing for the whole Patriots.
Offense. Yeah, Pat, I hate Ben's answer
because so can I hear you. Yeah.
So one of the one of the leaks for me, I think in dynasty,
because I, you know, came, I got really obsessed with fantasy
through dynasty. And I think like as I look at
how then to apply, you know, dynasty to best ball, I feel
like one of the things I've had to get better at.
It's like there, there are those guys in Dynasty who you're like,
I just don't think this dude's ever going to be like a huge
number one. And you need that.
You need that ceiling in Dynasty like you, you want a guy who can
be like a team's true #1 huge, massive hit.
And I'm really searching for those profiles.
And I'm like, not, I don't really care if you're going to
be like a solid #2 for a while. And that's really where Jalen
that's. What polka is?
Yeah, that's what he is. But like, I think he very much
profiles as a guy who can hit the ground running.
Like when you hear about like all of his traits and
everything, it's like he he does stuff, you know, he the
contested catch, he can play over the middle, he can line up
all over the place. He's got great hands.
The route running is pretty good.
So I'm like this dude can get out there and earn targets right
away. And then he's in the probably
the best situation in the NFL for being able to do that.
And then he's priced as a second round pick well below a lot of.
Others, yeah. So yeah, to me, like the him and
honestly, AD Mitchell is becoming a bigger priority too.
So I'm like, I'm getting that. I'm getting the discount
relative to some of the other draft capital.
And it's a profile that I really like.
And it's a spot where we're seeing evidence that this guy's
going to be involved early, where we're getting evidence
that a lot of other guys aren't going to be involved early.
The price hasn't really shot up on Polk.
I've been, I've been hammering him the entire way, in part
because I'm drafting a ton of Drink Me.
What's funny is like I actually you're both kind of saying the
same thing too, and that's what showed up like when I put the
prospects through the rookie supermodel.
Supermodel's a joke, guys like So for people that wonder why do
you call it Ian Hardness and I were joking one day and we were
like, oh, let's call it a supermodel, you know, any
whatever. So when we put it like through
the process, like of going through the model, like he
graded out as being competent in a lot of areas, but not great.
To your point, you know, Ben, and to what you were just saying
Pat and any of them. So it's like that wide receiver
one, upside's probably not there for him, but like he could be a
wide receiver two. And he's in an offense where I
look around, I'm like, Jesus, like they have no one, right,
NO1I. Do think he's a good football
player. So like, I mean, I think it's
the way Pat put it. I completely agree with.
Before we let you go, Dwayne, because I know you got to get
going, I really wanted to ask you if you had any insight on
Kamani Videl not playing this weekend.
I know like Harbaugh's been really tight lipped, but that
was the one I really want to get your thoughts on.
Do you? Do you?
What do you think about? That man, I can you know, I
haven't been able to search anything new this morning
because I've been so busy but last.
There's been some depth chart projections that he was left
off. Of well, I saw that.
I didn't see that. I saw that thing from The
Athletic. Saying does not seem bullish.
Oh, no, that's fine. And he might not make the
roster. Yeah, Yeah.
I couldn't find anything because I searched everywhere for like,
10 minutes. Like it took too much of my time
when I had so much to do right yesterday.
And I'm searching everywhere. Why did Kamani Videl?
Because the word was like, he suited up for warmups, but then
like, he didn't play. And they did the same thing, you
know, you know, with Mcconkey. But we knew that was probably
because, you know, he was kind of coming back from an injury.
So I couldn't find anything on it.
I don't like either of the other two running backs in front of
him. But I did see that depth chart
blurb this morning. I can't remember which reporter
that was from. If it's someone like we really.
Daniel Popper had him not making the team in his athletic run.
He's pretty good so. Yeah, both Patterson and Isaiah
Spill are over him. That's interesting.
I just don't understand man. Did you guys give me a reason
why a six round rookie, even if you're sure this early that you
don't want to keep the six round rookie, why you wouldn't have
played the second-half of of Yeah, over Spiller Like I, I
just, I can't imagine even if they were.
There even if the usage. Suggests that Jared Patterson
Spiller played in the first half.
Why don't they give him some run in the second-half at all just
to see what he looks like? He did miss some some days of
practice. And so it's possible it's it's
not fully healthy and maybe he's on the roster bubble.
They want to see what he actually looks like healthy.
I don't know. Yeah.
That's I don't see how Isaiah Spiller makes a roster.
Maybe that's just personal like for me.
Someone in the Spike Week discord tagged me like 2 months
ago to note that Harbaugh tried to recruit Isaiah Spiller and
that has that has made me. We're not hearing any buzz
around him like out. Of the rap just laps in Pat's
break. That's just yeah, rent free,
rent free. Whoever tagged me.
I don't remember who tagged me, but your information was.
Profile OK, like coming out like I thought it was decent.
Yeah, Spiller was all right. Spiller was was seen.
I remember like when when I was like catching up on the class
before diving into like the stats and everything that
Spiller, this is all pretty combined.
I'm talking like January of that incoming year.
He was seen as like potentially in line with Breece.
They were both these really young.
High second round picks. High second round picks, yeah,
and then Spiller had a horrendous offseason process.
Everything ever. One of the worst I've ever seen.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. But like, there was a time where
we thought Spiller was like a legit prospect, so.
Like, he was good as a freshman. He was using the passing game.
Like played in the SEC, played for a good program.
Yeah, he checked a ton of good boxes.
Just didn't work out. Sorry to disappoint you with
that one Ben. If you've got one more that you
think you got that I might have done it before, I'd be able to
try he. I took a lot of him and I mean a
lot of people really like that profile.
I'm sure did. Did your model like him?
I know like J JS model liked him, I'm sure yeah.
I mean, he had a he's a good. I wasn't as high on him as JJ,
but I did like him. And then Thor Nystrom at Fantasy
Life loves him, you know, and Thor's a film grinder.
Matt Walden, who I talk with a lot, he's a film grinder.
He, all the film guys love the doll.
Like they all like him. He didn't read that well my
stuff, but I was just like this situation.
I mean, you're telling me other people like are into this guy
Great, that's good enough for me.
So I was I was actually taking a decent amount of them.
Edwards peripherals fell off a little bit and I'm really
concerned about him losing Lamar.
Like I think that's probably Boo.
That's a big. Deal.
For two down efficiency guy, losing Lamar seems like a big
deal. 5 yards per carry is not going to be 3.8 like you can.
Right, exactly. Immediately.
And that's your whole game. Now they have a good offensive
line. They are pretty loaded on the
offensive line. They've got a lot of draft
capital loaded into the big boys up front.
So, but the teams are also going to load the box on them.
They're going to dare them. They're going to say Justin
Herbert, let's see if your coach will let you throw the ball or
not. Yeah, we know you.
Suck too. Well, that's exactly that's the
problem. They don't even cover Johnston
we. Know he.
Can't let him run open. They quit.
They treat Quinton Johnson like, you know, the, the, the read
option. You know, there's one person.
They're just like, yeah, we're basically inviting you to do
this. Like, we're going to make you
throw the ball. Honestly, he needs to convert to
running back. That's how he gets on the field.
I'm serious, I'm not kidding. Convert to running back.
Quinton Johnson play. It's quarter all, baby.
It's our generation. It's the pad level on a six foot
5. Amazing.
He was good after the catch in college.
Like, I don't know, I saw the. Ball in his hands with the ball
in his. Hands slant and like those thick
quads bands. Big.
Quads. What's that like?
Big ass is that? Do any positions have thick
quads and big asses? Is that is that a?
Tracy running. Max running.
Max, his legs are way too long back, very long legs.
Well, everything else isn't working for a receiver, so I'm
not saying maybe, maybe give it a try.
You get him on a wheel route, you know, and he can drop that
instead of just lining up at receiver and dropping it.
He. Can drop.
It Jesus. Oh man, Dwayne, thanks for
coming on man Tell. Yeah, man, I appreciate you
guys. Love what you guys do, love what
you guys do for the community and you guys are always awesome
at what you do. So pleasure to come on.
Yeah, yeah. Tell everybody where they can
see all your stuff. I mean obviously fantasy life,
but like specific notes on on the stuff now when it in season
and all that. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
So yeah, fantasy life. You know, guys, you just have
heard of fantasy life.com. You'll see I've got all the the
recap stuff up from this weekend's utilization for
preseason, all that stuff. My film notes are kind of mixed
in there along with all the data so you guys can see that.
We've also got utilization tools, Pat, I know that you've
used those, but you can go in. You can actually see all this
kind of stuff we're talking about carries inside the five,
you know, catchable target rates, all that stuff.
We're also gonna have a utilization score this year
that's being worked on in the back end.
That's really just helping you understand like which players
have the best role on the team. So let's say you're like Dwayne,
I'm not a dork. Like you don't have time to come
and look all these numbers. I just need one number for a
running back and I need to know what's good, what's bad.
So we're gonna have that. We're gonna have a couple of
other things, but we've also got obviously all the ranks,
everything up over there. Once the season gets here, like
I'll have the utilization report every week, my rankings,
projections. That stuff's all up for the
preseason too. You guys can go check it out.
Fantasy life.com. Awesome, awesome.
Thanks so much for coming on. We should.
Yeah, man. Appreciate you guys down, all
right. All right.
I didn't know if there was more. Slides or anything?
No, there's not. OK.
All right, See you guys. Appreciate it, Dwayne.
Yeah, Ben, anything to tell the people about before we get out
here? No stealing signals.
I wrote a piece. Called.
I think you do because it's mid August.
I guess so you you're always helping me trying to pretty
terrible at it. I wrote a no, you're right.
I watched at least the 1st Dr. of every game and in a lot of
cases multiple drives and wrote a pre season stealing signals
piece for the subscribers. People seem to really like that.
Sean sent me a note said he really liked it already this
morning, which was cool. I, I published that late last
night. It's it's going to be less data
heavy than Dwayne's. It's going to be more like this
is what I thought guys looked like and I'm kind of in the case
that we're looking for talent that can, you know, rise to the
top throughout the season. We're not just trying to, you
know, predict week one depth charts.
That's not the whole game, right?
Like we're also trying to think about the the chaos that will
come in season and so a. Little bit more look to you
because that that I keep hearing he looked like ass and I didn't
I didn't really. So he's one that I didn't have
a, a real opinion on that. So I thought Dwayne's notes were
actually really interesting. I just thought that his usage
was good. And I, I saw him, yeah, I, I
didn't think he looked great, but he, I wrote that he caught a
quick swing pass in the second snap.
Also got a carry from the 9 yard line, played the whole drive.
So I was like, yeah, the usage was good.
And we didn't really get to see a lot.
But I, when, when Dwayne was saying that, I was like, yeah, I
didn't really formulate an opinion on how he looked, which
probably means that he didn't do anything that was like, oh,
there's some bursts, you know what I mean?
Like, and I was just inclined to be like, write it off as not his
fault because I'm like, so into Chase Brown.
So that's why I actually, like, legitimately appreciated
Dwayne's fought on that, where it's like, yeah, I need to chill
a little bit on Brown. Probably.
I take him in like every draft that I can right now.
But there's a possibility he's just not good enough, right?
So yeah. There is that possibility for
sure I thought. His notes were were really,
really useful on, on him. But yeah, a lot of a lot of
other backs that I, I did talk about from a from a skill
perspective and all that stuff. So check that out.
The ranks are always updated. I did an AMA at Reddit this
morning, did about two hours of Q&A that that's all free and
long, long answers and in depth stuff.
I got asked about overhyped players and I listed like
basically all the fades that I have this year.
I got asked about sleepers and I was just listening a bunch of
the targets I have this year. I mean, basically just gave away
all the yeah, it sounds amazing. So go ahead and go read that.
A lot of strategy stuff. It was, it was a fun one.
But yeah, that's, you know, all the other same stuff.
Sean and I are doing round one and round 22025 ADP this week.
We're going to record those tomorrow.
So those are, I've been asked about that a lot.
Those are coming this week. Awesome.
I on Legendary Upside had a four part article series that came
out last week. Checked that out.
We've got a article from Daniel Razz that came out Saturday
looking at the same part of the draft.
So my article series was breaking down the profiles, the
running backs going through round 7 and 10.
A lot of those are free, like the first two in each part.
So like 8 running back profiles are above the paywall.
So check out, check out that even if you're not a subscriber.
It's only 10 bucks a month. I was going to raise the price
and then I just didn't. So it's just 10 bucks.
It's 10 bucks a month. So sign up, read, read all that.
Daniel Razz had an article looking at kind of three
different paths of how to utilize the running back pricing
to build teams, which is just it's a really excellent piece.
Stephanie Miller has an article coming out tomorrow on Dynasty
auction draft, which is pretty interesting for for all the
dynasty sickos out there. And then I have a bunch more
content coming out of Legendary Upside as well.
We have a question here. No Kylan Granson or MO Ali Cox
talk. I pulled up the wrong comment.
Where is it? Where to go?
No, I don't know. I can't.
Rusty Shackelford, it's at the top of the yeah.
No, Kylie Granson. More like Hawks talk.
Not this week, but Sam will be back.
Don't worry. Sam will be back with his cults
charts. Davis will be back next week.
Yeah, but until then, thanks for watching.
We'll see you guys next time. And I'm supposed to play the
outro, I think. Here it is.