1 00:00:01,160 --> 00:00:03,040 All right, it all right. It right right back. 2 00:00:03,440 --> 00:00:07,280 We've made it to the end of the road FFPC playoff week. 3 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:09,680 This is the finale. 4 Straights nights. 4 00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:11,600 I can't talk. I've had too many margaritas 5 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:14,480 Tonight, four straight nights of FFPC programming. 6 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:18,000 We're going to cap it with our friends Dink and Leone from ETR. 7 00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:19,880 Talk through the latest news, Lots of things. 8 00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:22,200 Kind of shaking up the landscape, dare I say, flipping 9 00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:24,640 the slate on its head. Talk through some more of our 10 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:27,280 favorite current thoughts for strategy pivots, all that good 11 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:29,600 stuff. And naturally we will build a 12 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:33,000 line up tonight. It's ship chasing ETR crossover 13 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:34,640 FFPC challenge. Let's do it. 14 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:43,440 Pat Fryer helmos This is why. This is why I'm hot Anita hand 15 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:44,680 job. Fix your sight. 16 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,600 Jamar Alpha. Play Chase. 17 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:53,200 You can't handle the heat. It looks like we're finally at 18 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:53,920 this point. You're right. 19 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:04,040 Aren't you supposed to be updating some MBA projections 20 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:06,360 right now, Dink? I'm. 21 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:08,240 Let me check my DMS. Let's see. 22 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:11,280 Let's. See. 23 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:13,120 Yeah, I usually get my notifications on. 24 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:15,360 If projections need updating via DM, these. 25 00:01:17,960 --> 00:01:22,800 Days actually works for each our backup plan run notifications. 26 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:25,800 Is this this is your annual appearance on ship chasing, 27 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:26,680 right? You don't have. 28 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:29,280 Did you hop on in the summer at all or any of the other shows? 29 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:35,960 Buddy, I have no idea. You'd remember if you did. 30 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:39,280 I have no idea what shows I've been on, what shows about. 31 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:41,960 I don't even know why people still invite me to do football 32 00:01:41,960 --> 00:01:45,520 shows, but I keep showing up and I keep taking the checks, so you 33 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:48,320 know. You're you're our coxswain, or 34 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:50,640 as Leone typed it out in our private chat today, the 35 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:56,960 coxswain. Leone, how are you doing 36 00:01:56,960 --> 00:01:58,520 tonight? Good. 37 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:01,440 I'm feeling, you know, grateful to be doing this show with you 38 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:04,720 guys is always one of my favorite things each year doing 39 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:09,400 this contest, making all these lineups and tilting that we're 40 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:13,280 locked out of, winning by one point in 10 different lineups 41 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:17,440 after the Wild Card weekend. Yeah, you definitely carry like 42 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:20,560 the tilt torch for us as like the playoffs move on. 43 00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:23,640 Like we'll all have mentally moved on and you'll still be 44 00:02:23,640 --> 00:02:28,240 like, OK, if Mike Evans scores 69 points, we can actually still 45 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:32,960 get first. I've learned from Drew how to 46 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:36,880 just, you know, just hold on to any sweat possible. 47 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:41,040 Yeah, exactly. Gretch Crane, how we doing 48 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:43,280 tonight? Doing good. 49 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:49,160 Alabama just stole my my head coach feels great, great to be a 50 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:51,000 Husky over here. So. 51 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:53,760 Wow. Pete's Pete's just learning this 52 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:56,200 now. I mean, believe it or not, I 53 00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:59,560 don't have alerts turned on for Washington Huskies hot Stone 54 00:02:59,640 --> 00:03:02,360 news. I was a long week. 55 00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:05,880 I was going to complain. My complaint feels less valid 56 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:07,360 now. I I didn't leave enough time to 57 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:10,040 eat dinner, so now I have to eat this lobster roll on stream. 58 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:12,920 Jeez. Lifestyles of the Rich and the 59 00:03:12,920 --> 00:03:16,400 Famous Lobster rolls on stream. The rest of us are priced out of 60 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:18,520 those. Probably costs $38, so. 61 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:25,520 I paid the greatest. One day I thought we might win a 62 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:27,440 national title. I was at the game. 63 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:31,000 Now we don't even know the head coach and all of our players are 64 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:32,800 are either going pro or transferring away. 65 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:34,400 It's been it's been a great week. 66 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:36,200 It's been a good week for Husky football. 67 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:39,240 Yeah, I think you made it to the national championship. 68 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:40,440 Game, I know. You got to go. 69 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:41,880 I mean, like, yeah, that's pretty. 70 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:43,560 It's pretty. Nice. 71 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:44,720 It is cool. It's cool. 72 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:47,240 Let's do that. I mean, you got to go watch a 73 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:49,440 game. Leonie has to go shovel his 74 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:53,760 team's, you know, field just so they can play this weekend. 75 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:55,800 Leonie, have you volunteered? You're gonna be on the front 76 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:57,280 lines. Liam's already shirking his 77 00:03:57,280 --> 00:03:58,680 duty. He's a draft Dodger. 78 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:01,240 I'm. I mean, it's 10:00 PM at night. 79 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:03,160 You got to show up like. Obviously. 80 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:06,000 Well, did you hear Liam's reasoning? 81 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:09,480 He says the snow's an advantage, and so he actually refuses to 82 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:12,000 participate because that would actually be helping out the 83 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:14,600 Steelers. Well, that's farcical, Liam, 84 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:17,360 because they want you to shovel the seats in the stadium so 85 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:20,279 people can go. They don't actually want you to 86 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:22,680 shovel the field. Liam would probably have a 87 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:25,320 retort where it's like, no, the fans cheer louder if there's 88 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:28,040 fucking icicles in their ass and then you need to leave them 89 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:29,480 there. He wants. 90 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:31,120 To throw his dill balls. That's what it is. 91 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:33,040 He wants the the throwing of the snowballs. 92 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:34,160 Advantage. Oh God. 93 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:37,200 Exactly. I got yelled at for that last 94 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:37,920 time. Yeah, that doll. 95 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:39,680 It was so annoying, that Dolphins game. 96 00:04:40,280 --> 00:04:41,840 Well, if you guys don't have snowballs, you're just gonna 97 00:04:41,840 --> 00:04:43,240 throw dildos. You guys are gonna throw 98 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:45,000 something something. Or the other. 99 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:51,760 So Leotie, let me get your temperature as a, you know, very 100 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:54,520 unbiased, logical, rational Bills fan. 101 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:57,000 You know the the narrative around is basically every team 102 00:04:57,000 --> 00:05:00,200 is live for an upset this weekend except the Steelers. 103 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:02,000 They're the one team that can't win. 104 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:05,000 Do you want to mush your your team by agreeing with that take? 105 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:09,320 No, I think, I think they're starting to also be in the live 106 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:11,480 to lose. People are starting to get on 107 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:13,480 this. The weather completely 108 00:05:13,480 --> 00:05:16,800 neutralizes, you know, quarterback advantage, blah, 109 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:20,320 blah, blah. So I don't need to mush them. 110 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:22,600 You know, I think people think Pittsburgh's live because of the 111 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:24,360 weather stuff. It is kind of a crazy 112 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:26,280 combination of spread in total right now. 113 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:29,400 It's like a 10 point spread on a 33 total. 114 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:34,040 Have you got like what kind of actual weather docks have you 115 00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:39,400 guys made to your projections? We've docked that game pretty 116 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:43,680 good. The play count's down and a lot 117 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:45,280 of this is related to the total, right? 118 00:05:45,280 --> 00:05:50,360 Like, so the total's super low, so generally that's more running 119 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:53,320 place to begin with in a lower play count. 120 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:58,560 But we've also docked the pass rate like even even more than we 121 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:01,360 normally would on a total of this magnitude. 122 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:03,720 And some of the efficiency in passing like we haven't gone 123 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:06,520 full crazy. But yeah, it's it's docked 124 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:09,960 pretty good to reflect, you know, what, 33 1/2 total. 125 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:12,880 Dink, are you? Are you a weather bro this 126 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:14,160 weekend? Are there any spots we're 127 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:18,680 worried about? I'm I'm excited that people are 128 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:21,720 potentially going to dock the Kansas City, Miami situation 129 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:23,240 heavily. That's the one that I'm more 130 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:26,560 excited by because I think ultimately like everything with 131 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:29,000 Miami is just whether they hit big plays or not. 132 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:32,040 And if they hit big plays then you know they're going to, 133 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:34,680 they're going to be useful in fantasy and on the chief side of 134 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:36,520 things they tend to throw the ball kind of regardless. 135 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:41,080 So that's the one that's more interesting to me to that people 136 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:43,600 are afraid of that I'm less concerned about. 137 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:46,880 The Buffalo one is more just like it. 138 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,960 It seems like it could be an absolute disaster. 139 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:54,360 And Buffalo is tough to play from ADFS perspective in general 140 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:57,080 because like we talked about this on established 1,000,000, 141 00:06:57,080 --> 00:07:00,200 but if you play digs, you can get digs right and still get 142 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:03,400 buried like at the wide receiver position with the options that 143 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:05,840 are there. So more interested in the KC 144 00:07:05,840 --> 00:07:08,600 Miami game from a weather perspective than Buffalo and 145 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:10,840 pet. Wait until we show Drew this 146 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:14,560 Tyreek Kill Ownership projection in in the FFPC contest. 147 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:18,120 Well, that's why I wanted to get your guys thoughts on where the 148 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:20,200 field is going to go with that because I was listening to 149 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:22,320 Stealing Bananas and Ben, you were kind of making the point 150 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:27,120 that maybe people weren't going to be concerned about this 151 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:30,320 enough because, you know, it's kind of too easy to play Tyreek 152 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:34,000 and a chief. But I am feeling like people 153 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:35,360 are. I mean, I'm hearing lots about 154 00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:37,760 the weather. So I think it's not like people 155 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:41,480 are overlooking the weather, but are they then going to have the 156 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:43,600 stones to do like Miami Full fades? 157 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:45,640 Because I I don't think the running backs are really that 158 00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:48,240 appealing to people in this contest either, given that we're 159 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:50,200 going to get both and they don't want to pick between the two, 160 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:53,280 so. That was sort of my point is 161 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,720 that people want to play both sides of games where they think 162 00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:59,400 teams can go on to win another game, right? 163 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:01,320 Like this is the game where people don't want to pick a 164 00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:03,800 winner and and so there's leverage in picking a winner. 165 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:08,080 The the the games, it's like the DFS versus FFPC is just so 166 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:10,080 different. You know where everything Drew 167 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:14,320 is saying is valid, but then in FFPC there's a couple teams that 168 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:17,800 are such obvious fades. You make those obvious fades 169 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:21,720 like you fade Pittsburgh. Maybe you fade Green Bay like 170 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:24,760 the two big dogs and all of a sudden, you know, are you 171 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:28,000 playing Miami Defense or kicker? And then there's the Cleveland, 172 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:30,680 Houston game. So I do think Tyree Kill's going 173 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:33,840 to get on quite a bit just because, you know, it's a 174 00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:37,120 different type of format and people are just going to feel 175 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:41,039 comfortable clicking that, you know, no salary cap restrictions 176 00:08:41,039 --> 00:08:45,960 or anything. We had a bunch of kind of injury 177 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:48,360 news. Things develop today. 178 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:52,160 I I would say nothing like seismic, but certainly wrinkles 179 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:54,760 to how we've been thinking about things. 180 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:57,600 Let's start. At felt a little seismic to me. 181 00:08:58,320 --> 00:08:59,720 I went to keep all the numbers around. 182 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:02,800 That's because when you make one percentage shift to the 183 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:05,040 ownership projections, it means you got to spend another 30 184 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:07,080 minutes reconciling it across everything else. 185 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:13,120 That's exactly right. For my sailing it was all very 186 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:19,080 minimal tweaks. Mark Mark Andrews back at 187 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:22,200 practice today. Like, I do think it's 188 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:25,600 interesting in that if Mark Andrews never got hurt and he 189 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:29,280 was playing at the clip that, you know we've seen peak Mark 190 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:32,280 Andrews, he would have been probably pretty close to a 191 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:36,000 challenger to Lamar Jackson for ownership in this contest, which 192 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:39,200 is famously tied in premium on a slate where we're starved for 193 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:43,400 really good tight end options. Now he is back practicing, I 194 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:45,800 assume. Are you guys projecting him to 195 00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:48,480 play at all this weekend, or how are you guys projecting him 196 00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:52,040 right now, Leonie? We're projecting him out for the 197 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:55,160 divisional round and back for the conference championship in 198 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:58,240 Super Bowl. I know Silva thinks there's a 199 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:00,680 pretty decent chance he's actually back to the divisional 200 00:10:00,680 --> 00:10:05,680 round. I really don't know, but that's 201 00:10:05,680 --> 00:10:07,080 the way we're projecting it right now. 202 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:13,160 And so I assume Pat like you're no one, no one's playing Mark 203 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:17,080 Andrews, but the shifts are likely comes down. 204 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:20,680 Does it make people more confident in Lamar and that he 205 00:10:20,680 --> 00:10:22,000 has another weapon? Like how? 206 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:25,760 How do you think it shakes out? That's an interesting angle that 207 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:27,120 people would actually feel more comfortable with. 208 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:30,480 Lamar. I hadn't adjusted Lamar's 209 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:31,880 ownership, but maybe I should a little. 210 00:10:32,560 --> 00:10:36,600 But no, I don't think you can play Andrews because you cannot 211 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:38,840 take a zero in the divisional round, which is the most likely 212 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:41,200 thing to happen. Like this is a contest where 213 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:47,360 we're going to be gutted because like our buck got outscored by 214 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:51,440 another buck by 2 1/2 points and like then they lose and we can't 215 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:55,400 get those 2 1/2 points again. So much locks in this contest 216 00:10:55,400 --> 00:11:01,320 that small point differences can be huge swing, so risking a 0 is 217 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:06,200 not really on the table I think. But at the same point I do think 218 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:08,520 it matters because it makes likely, I think, a really bad 219 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:10,800 play. Now you're risking a really low 220 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:13,960 score in the Super Bowl. Yep. 221 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,280 Any gretch any? Any thoughts for you on what 222 00:11:18,280 --> 00:11:21,120 Andrews back means for a contest here? 223 00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:25,000 I think at FFPC we've talked a lot about how the Titan position 224 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:29,880 is weak, I and I. So I think there are ways that 225 00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:34,720 he can get there based on the rest of the position failing. 226 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:37,800 If if, if the Browns lose and then joke who doesn't have a big 227 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:42,160 game if Kelsey isn't the guy for KC. 228 00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:45,440 I mean, it could be Pacheco, could be Rashi Rice, depends how 229 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:47,880 many games they play. You might say if they lose to 230 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:51,840 Miami in the first game, there's not really a clear third. 231 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:56,880 We've talked about Goddard, we've talked a little bit about 232 00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:58,720 Kincaid, so that's about some of the other guys. 233 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:01,440 But there's not like a clear third option. 234 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:05,600 And even if Andrews doesn't play in the second round, I mean like 235 00:12:05,680 --> 00:12:08,600 in tight end premium. And if there's a situation where 236 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:12,080 the other skill guys kind of spread out with stuff even if 237 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:15,440 they win, if they basically if they play two games and he only 238 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:18,120 plays one, I feel like he could still be optimal a tight end. 239 00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:21,400 I don't know if that seems crazy, but it would depend on 240 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:22,600 the rest of the tight end position. 241 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:26,160 I think he needs to go to the Super Bowl if he doesn't play 242 00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:27,760 the divisional round. OK. 243 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:31,200 But he could play the divisional round, you know, right? 244 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:35,000 Well, you you make the Super Bowl though the one game miss 245 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:36,800 almost doesn't matter a ton because you're gonna get the 246 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:37,240 well. I guess. 247 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:39,240 It still matters relative to your teammates though. 248 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:40,480 But to. Your teammates? 249 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:42,120 Yeah, it. Matters to your teammates. 250 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:44,280 But you could. And one of those teammates is 251 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:48,240 the chalk quarterback, right? So you're already a dog with 252 00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:49,880 Lamar. Like if if you show up with 253 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:54,560 Andrews plays the divisional, it's already like, not the most 254 00:12:54,560 --> 00:12:58,680 comfortable thing to show up without Lamar because the NFC 255 00:12:58,680 --> 00:13:02,880 side, you're probably not playing Purdy or Dak. 256 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:07,760 And even if you did, you know those aren't super great bets to 257 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:10,400 outscore their teammates. So you're probably showing up 258 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:14,480 like Andrew CMC versus Lamar, CMC, Does that feel good? 259 00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:17,760 Well, it depends where your scoring's at at that point. 260 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:20,960 I mean, it's not sure there's gonna be an offset of some sort 261 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:23,320 and the. Thing is, it's like even with 262 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:25,640 this, what like what are you gonna have his ownership at PAT 263 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:28,120 like 1 to 2% Max? Yeah. 264 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:31,640 Yeah. So, like, even if Mark Andrew is 265 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:35,560 just way ahead of schedule and even puts up like a decent score 266 00:13:35,560 --> 00:13:39,080 in the divisional round, it's it's pretty unlikely that you're 267 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:42,280 competing against Mark Andrews teams for the top score. 268 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:45,680 It's more like, do you want to potentially gain that edge? 269 00:13:45,680 --> 00:13:48,120 But yeah, I agree sometimes if it's really risky. 270 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:49,920 And we're going to run into the same thing with A.J. 271 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:54,520 Brown, where it's like, you know, is it, you know, is it, is 272 00:13:54,560 --> 00:13:56,840 it even. The question is really, do you 273 00:13:56,840 --> 00:14:00,800 want to try to be that team that shows up with Mark Andrews and 274 00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:03,520 now you're live to jump all these Lamar teams, but. 275 00:14:03,560 --> 00:14:06,680 Yeah, it's there's a lot. The, the hardest part of this 276 00:14:06,680 --> 00:14:10,000 every year, especially us making a lot of teams, is we can find 277 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:11,960 like 20 different smart leverage spots. 278 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:16,040 But it's like ranking them and deciding which ones and how 279 00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:18,480 heavy to play, the top ones versus spreading it out. 280 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:22,480 And the Andrews one is probably, you know, not in the top ten, 281 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:23,920 but. No, it's not. 282 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:27,560 Maybe in the I don't. He's not he's not someone I I 283 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:29,880 particularly want to play. I was the same as I was thinking 284 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:31,920 through it so that I can see the math being. 285 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:34,440 And so I I don't think it's a Super Bowl thing because I do 286 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:36,840 think the Lamar element becomes pretty difficult. 287 00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:39,960 Think I mean we've talked a lot about it. 288 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:44,680 Lamar and Josh Allen are looking like they're going to be soaking 289 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:47,200 up like 90% of the quarterback membership and and almost 290 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:50,000 rightfully so. So I'm basically thinking 291 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:53,280 through a Bill's beat the Ravens in the conference championship 292 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:58,000 scenario where it is Allen. It's definitely not Lamar and 293 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:01,720 Dawson, Zay and Odell. Spread stuff around enough and 294 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:04,400 you get Marc Andrews catching six or eight passes, even if he 295 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:06,960 only plays one game. It's tight end premium and 296 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:09,760 there's no also then you also need no other tight end scoring 297 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:12,480 a lot. I mean, it's it's possible to me 298 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:14,560 in terms of trying to think through the way this works, and 299 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:16,800 if I was going to build that, I'd build it as a single tight 300 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:18,240 end. I would certainly not flex a 301 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:20,520 tight end because you're using the constraints of the tight end 302 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:23,840 position as part of the argument, but I don't even love 303 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:25,840 it. To Leonie's point, it's not one 304 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:28,120 of the, like top ten favorite types of those plays that. 305 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:30,720 This this reminds me, I was watching Leonie's stream earlier 306 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:34,680 today and you were talking about like you know how you can build 307 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:36,720 out these brackets, but sometimes you can build out the 308 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:40,040 brackets too hyper specific where like you could you 309 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:42,480 actually if you just tweak things slightly would have a an 310 00:15:43,400 --> 00:15:45,400 opportunity to have a couple different outs with certain 311 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:48,920 match ups while still playing certain scenarios. 312 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:53,920 And this is like a very specific scenario which could happen, but 313 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:55,880 that's I think the problem with the Andrews play is it just 314 00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:58,320 relies on like a lot of things falling in place. 315 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:04,000 Well, Dink, how about Laporta, who's a little different in that 316 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:06,760 they're playing this weekend back at practice? 317 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:08,480 All indications point to him playing. 318 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:10,680 I know you guys haven't projected in now. 319 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:15,080 Is he on the menu for you with with Lion stuff like what? 320 00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:17,040 Are you going to play him in DFS this weekend too? 321 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:22,880 I'm not. I mean the last thing we saw 322 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:25,040 towards the end of the regular season from Dan Campbell and the 323 00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:26,920 Lions is that they love deception, right? 324 00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:31,400 So I feel like this whole Sam Laporta thing is built on 325 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:33,440 deception. I I don't. 326 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:36,320 I I can't imagine that he's going to play his normal role. 327 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:40,240 My expectation is that he'll be in in the goal line packages 328 00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:44,160 maybe he'll have three or four targets total in the game. 329 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:46,280 They'll probably be end zone related targets. 330 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,080 If I'm going to play that, you know, maybe I play it on FanDuel 331 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:52,160 from ADFS perspective for these contests and whatnot. 332 00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:55,440 Like I think he's going to be really heavily limited. 333 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:59,280 But Mike Leonie knows like I'm really biased towards guys 334 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:02,800 assuming that guys are hurt in any way that the downside is 335 00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:06,119 really really low. So like I'm always the guy who 336 00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:09,400 any questionable tag game time decision like Christian Kirk 337 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:12,720 last week I was like I am fading Christian Kirk hard if he plays 338 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:14,560 in this game from ADFS perspective. 339 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:18,560 So my bias is towards these situations and kind of assuming 340 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:21,560 that a hurt player is going to have a very limited role or high 341 00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:25,280 risk of re injury. So I would not be super excited. 342 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:28,600 I have, I have Laporta and you know some of the the Gauntlet, 343 00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:32,000 some of the DK stuff I took like last round Laporta, like maybe 344 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:35,160 maybe I get some points there, but I in in these contests where 345 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:39,080 you need a lot of points in the first week, I'm not as excited 346 00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:42,440 to to play them. The other thing with Aporta is 347 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:46,280 that I wrote about this today on legendary upside. 348 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:48,400 I just kind of got a quick post out on some of my thoughts. 349 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:50,640 But he's a he's an interesting one to think through because 350 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,680 you're like, yeah, OK, but if they win, then he's even more 351 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:57,320 healthy the following week. But also now you're playing two 352 00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:00,760 games against Amanrath and the bigger that sample gets the more 353 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:04,000 you want Almond Ross. So it just it's a little I I 354 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,600 don't I don't really think he's a a great option at all. 355 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:11,320 Yeah, if anything, it's even. I would say it's more of the 356 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:14,680 thing, you know, does Andrew's back get you more excited about 357 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,320 Lamar? I think in general it makes me 358 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:21,200 more excited about just like the Lions being able to go a little 359 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:22,920 bit further. But how you apply that to the 360 00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:25,800 playoff contest is still basically airspeed. 361 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:27,280 Maybe Gibbs, right? Like that's. 362 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:33,480 What they Dave Burkett tweeted out like a a video of them 363 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:36,440 practicing. And he isn't like a full leg 364 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:39,040 knee brace. Like it is not like he they 365 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:42,760 practiced in full, but like he is not just out there jogging 366 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:46,040 around, you know, looking normal like he's he's still working 367 00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:48,080 back. If he was healthy, he would have 368 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:52,560 been a fun you're playing the the Lions to lose like a one 369 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:54,560 game play but. Yes, exactly. 370 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:55,760 Yeah. He's not healthy. 371 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:56,800 He's. Not healthy. 372 00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:00,600 Yep. So that that one and then I 373 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:02,720 think the other. The huge domino right now is 374 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:06,000 what's going on with A.J. Brown and the Eagles. 375 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,400 Whereas if we had full practices from A.J. 376 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:10,280 Brown would have been in the Boomer. 377 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:15,000 Opto would have been the chalk. Even with his form not being, 378 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:18,720 you know, great down the stretch, now we have him not 379 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:20,600 practicing. I still have not heard like a 380 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:23,880 single report. Like not anything like, oh, you 381 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,400 know, he's he's looking good. He's, you know, they're going to 382 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:29,560 try to get like it's just crickets, dudes not practicing. 383 00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:31,400 It feels very ominous, very bearish. 384 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,800 Pat, I know you made some tweaks to the ownership projections in 385 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:38,840 light of today's DMP. Yeah, I did. 386 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:42,480 I mean I was probably overly bullish early in the week just 387 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:46,080 like there have been some stuff of oh, you know it's not, it's 388 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:50,480 not that bad he's walking around, but the double DNP, I 389 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:53,280 don't know how much this stuff matters but like there's also 390 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:56,800 like he he deactivated his Twitter account and scrubbed 391 00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:58,840 some stuff from I mean there's always this stuff. 392 00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:03,880 So I'm like it doesn't feel great but more the DNP and I 393 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:07,080 want to see the I would love to see him back in practice 394 00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:08,800 tomorrow. But I think the other thing is 395 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,560 like people are going to. Kind of have to make this like 396 00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:14,920 we're going to build all of our line UPS tonight with the 397 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:16,760 information that we have. How can we put A.J. 398 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:19,000 Brown in? And so it's just going to 399 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:21,320 already going to have a big impact on ownership. 400 00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:25,240 I haven't been like 5%. I could I could see even that 401 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:28,160 bringing that down, I could see bringing it up up a little bit. 402 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:30,760 He'll never get to where he could have been if he practiced 403 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:34,240 this week. How? 404 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:38,920 Like, let's let's assume A.J. Brown doesn't play. 405 00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:40,960 I'm already kind of working under the assumption the field 406 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:43,000 doesn't even want to deal with it no matter what. 407 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:45,280 Like, even if he gets in a limited practice tomorrow, I 408 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:48,040 just assume the field's like I don't even want to take the risk 409 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:51,920 that comes Monday he's not active or he's limited or 410 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:53,800 whatever. Like you're putting $200.00 on 411 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:58,080 this entry that locks Saturday afternoon like no one wants to 412 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:02,280 take a zero on that. Yes, but I do think there's a 413 00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:05,280 point, and that's why I've had to put him at 5%, 'cause I think 414 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:09,080 there's a point at which you go, but no one's going to play him 415 00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:12,040 now, so maybe, maybe he becomes this contrarian pivot. 416 00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:14,560 So it depends again on the practice report. 417 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:18,720 If it's like he's kind of 5050 to play, then I think it'd be 418 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:22,520 probably more like 1%. Well, five 5% is a good number, 419 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:25,680 but in that you basically need to be putting in 20 lineups for 420 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:29,800 him to enter your portfolio. And I not a lot of people are 421 00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:31,800 putting in 20 lineups. So that's why it could even come 422 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,720 in less, less than 5%. For sure. 423 00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:38,720 And so, yeah, now I have Jake Elliott as the chalk on the 424 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:40,800 Eagles. I mean, I've got him up to 27%. 425 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:43,880 I've got the Eagles fade up to 45%. 426 00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:50,000 I could see that coming in even a little higher, just as people 427 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,200 don't. I mean you there's already like 428 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:55,200 a lot of sentiment that the the Buccaneers could win this game 429 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:59,560 at home, the Eagles obviously looking so bad down the stretch 430 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:03,560 and then it's just like easier, 'cause I think that kind of 431 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:07,000 comes into play in this contest of like not everyone's always 432 00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:09,400 going to think through like what will happen and therefore I will 433 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,400 pick a line up that represents what I think will happen. 434 00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:15,440 They will go be a lot easier for me if the Bucks won this game. 435 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:19,880 So I'm going to say that they will and I think you'll get some 436 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,480 of that. I could see them like depending. 437 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,840 I'm kind of waiting a little bit on the Brown stuff, but I could 438 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:30,600 end up having the Eagles total fade up closer to 55% than the 439 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:35,240 45% I have it at now as people. I think maybe just decide that 440 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:37,320 they don't want to deal with this, but right now I've got 441 00:22:38,120 --> 00:22:42,480 Elliott 27, Devonte Smith 24, Dallas Gottard 19, Philly Fade 442 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:46,160 16, A.J. Brown 5, Jalen Hurts 4, Swift 2, 443 00:22:46,360 --> 00:22:48,800 defense two, and then nothing for anyone else. 444 00:22:49,360 --> 00:22:50,960 I think that makes a lot of sense. 445 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:54,920 It does, and I'm I'm getting much more worried about A.J. 446 00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,440 Brown as well. It does make me want to make the 447 00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:01,800 bet because Brown has played through DNPS with knee issues in 448 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:05,200 the past and smashed. That is something that he 449 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:09,200 specifically has done multiple times, like during his Tennessee 450 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:14,440 years. I I don't think that's 451 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:16,080 necessarily what it's what's gonna happen. 452 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,360 But also like when he, when he seems to throw these fits and 453 00:23:18,360 --> 00:23:21,360 like you talk about the, I think his Twitter and stuff, sometimes 454 00:23:21,360 --> 00:23:22,760 he gets 10 targets the next week. 455 00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:24,240 Yeah. Give me wheel kind of stuff, 456 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:28,720 yeah. I do think the ownership had 457 00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:33,320 like, as it stands right now with him uncertain to play. 458 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:35,080 I don't know if people will go like, oh, we'll just play 459 00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:36,920 Devonta then, like, they might just fade. 460 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:41,440 Like, I could see Devonta for sure, three to five points lower 461 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,320 than you have it, and then that's where you get your. 462 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:44,960 And that goes to the. Portal fade. 463 00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:46,720 That's how. That's where I would take it 464 00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:48,520 from, you know. I do think you're right that 465 00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:50,560 people are gonna just want to pick the Bucks to win 'cause 466 00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:52,120 they don't want to deal with the Eagles. 467 00:23:52,120 --> 00:23:55,240 And the Eagles can still win. Even if A.J. 468 00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,120 Brown doesn't play. They can win, right? 469 00:23:57,880 --> 00:23:59,680 Right. And that's that's where my brain 470 00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,120 goes right in that it's like do you even have to take on the 471 00:24:02,120 --> 00:24:03,960 A.J. Brown risk if the field just 472 00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:07,680 wants to full fade it, you basically free roll via Goddard 473 00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:09,840 and Devonta Smith. Those guys can have great games 474 00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:12,560 with AJB in and ideally you probably would want like a 475 00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:17,120 limited AJB in for those guys. It's an awesome match up and if 476 00:24:17,120 --> 00:24:20,040 they're not going to catch any steam because of the AJB news, 477 00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:24,640 like that's where I get excited. Also, Hertz is, I think, a good 478 00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:26,400 play. Me too. 479 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:31,000 It was tough to play him a lot, but the NFFC contest, Hertz is 480 00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:34,640 like an amazing play. It's like a totally different 481 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:36,480 structure. But like he's an amazing play 482 00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:38,480 there where I still don't think he's gonna be owned, but like he 483 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:42,000 should be. But here I, you know, I think he 484 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:46,200 might be the third best QB play. On on the NFFC, when I I was 485 00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:48,800 talking about this with Draco earlier, 'cause we were, we were 486 00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:50,440 talking about this last night show. 487 00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:52,240 And I know you talked about it on your show a little bit. 488 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:56,400 But is the idea with Hertz that if you're like, if a lot of your 489 00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:59,000 other round one stuff goes bad, then you just stick with Hertz 490 00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:01,520 in round two? If not, then you pivot to Purdy? 491 00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:03,720 Is that the like if you have a lot of you playing right? 492 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,680 The The thing is, the NFC side, you're not starting with the 493 00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,320 quarterback because you're starting with CD or CMC and 494 00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,840 you're playing two quarterbacks. So you've got you pick Lamar or 495 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:17,120 Allen as one quarterback. Then you start with Hertz. 496 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:20,320 He could smash in a loss and then you sub in Purdy or Dak. 497 00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:23,840 Or if he wins, maybe you just go, OK, I'm gonna play this as 498 00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:27,120 an Eagles run that nobody else is gonna play, so you have like 499 00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:29,600 a few outs. That's not even form. 500 00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:31,160 You can even. That's the format that 501 00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:32,680 multiplies. Yeah. 502 00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:37,520 So in that format, I mean, can you also get away with just a 503 00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,360 low scoring Super Bowl from the quarterback position, being able 504 00:25:40,360 --> 00:25:42,920 to make up like 'cause the advantage at the at the Super 505 00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,120 Bowl quarterback position rate is the multiplier advantage that 506 00:25:45,120 --> 00:25:47,000 they have over you. But if it's not that great of a 507 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:49,920 scoring game, a quarterback just naturally, couldn't you have 508 00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:52,160 made-up for that by what you're picking up in the early rounds? 509 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:56,040 Yeah definitely that's part of it is like you might even add 510 00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:59,880 purty or DAC like third or fourth round you know and and 511 00:25:59,880 --> 00:26:03,280 there's just because their skill player teammates are are good. 512 00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,040 DAC would do. I mean, a little bit harder, I 513 00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:09,200 think, but yeah, yeah, for sure. So so you got you guys think 514 00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:13,280 Philly's going to be faded heavily in this stuff I do. 515 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:19,120 More than their when. Yes, this seems like, I mean I'm 516 00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:22,320 catching up to all this stuff late as you guys can imagine 517 00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:24,440 with with my NBA responsibilities. 518 00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:27,680 But like there's been all this news all week that's been 519 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:31,200 negative on Philadelphia. The line has not moved it. 520 00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,440 It's moved in favor of Philadelphia during the course 521 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,800 of the week opening at 2 1/2 in a lot of places and moving to 522 00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:39,960 three. So like, if this is the fade, 523 00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:45,400 the public play of of the year, it would seem like to me is that 524 00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:48,200 if there's all this negative news coming on Philadelphia, the 525 00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:51,960 books are holding firm on a key number and there's just like, 526 00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:54,200 Nope, 3. It's three, it's three. 527 00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:55,760 AJ Brown's not playing, it's three. 528 00:26:56,440 --> 00:27:00,840 Like to me, that's a that's a strong signal to be aggressive 529 00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:02,680 on Philadelphia stuff in the first round. 530 00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,520 I also feel like there's been like all these teams except 531 00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:09,120 maybe Baltimore, have had up and downs throughout the year, 532 00:27:09,120 --> 00:27:11,360 right? Like Buffalo has, Casey has. 533 00:27:11,360 --> 00:27:14,960 And like I don't know some of these teams that were down on 534 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,440 heading to the playoffs who might be like overly down on 535 00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:19,920 like just like people are overly down on Buffalo. 536 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,960 You know when it was six and six like Philly could definitely 537 00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:25,480 make a run. The challenging part is like I 538 00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:29,360 like Hertz, but you're not going to play like a ton of Hertz you 539 00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,920 I mean and I guess it comes down to the Devante Smith projected 540 00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,160 ownership. But you could kind of pencil in, 541 00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:38,240 like we're going to play Philly pass catcher here and then like, 542 00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,960 we can decide late like exactly what the the split is. 543 00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,560 Evans are Evans and Rashad White. 544 00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:47,400 Gonna catch a lot more ownership based on this. 545 00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:53,600 Yeah, so that's I brought them up and Tampa Bay fade down in 546 00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:57,000 kind of direct response to this Philly move, 'cause that 'cause 547 00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,240 that's obviously connected. People are gonna shift to 548 00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:00,720 Philly. They'll they'll fade the Bucks 549 00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:03,680 less. I have Evans up to 33 and White 550 00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:06,640 up to 24. I think they'll ultimately come 551 00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:09,800 in pretty close. I could see White flipping Evans 552 00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:14,360 because people don't feel great about the running backs and 553 00:28:14,360 --> 00:28:16,800 white is a is a pretty comfy click. 554 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:19,280 Especially if you're picking them to win, yeah, for sure. 555 00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:23,080 But Evans, you know, you get the great match up and then you get 556 00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:26,520 them having to throw a bunch in round two, which could 557 00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:28,600 potentially be against the 49ers. 558 00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:32,840 So you could just play Chris? Godwin, Davonta, Smith and 559 00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,720 guarantee a low owned advancing receiver. 560 00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:37,960 That's like a pretty good play. A pretty good. 561 00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:39,640 Projection play? For sure you could, yeah. 562 00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:44,080 Yeah, I think the only thing that's keeping the Bucks stuff 563 00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:46,840 in check is just there's uncertainty around how healthy 564 00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:49,360 Baker is, too. Like there's some legitimate 565 00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:54,280 worries about him, and I just haven't seen a lot of chatter of 566 00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:59,120 people super enthused about Bucks in this spot. 567 00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:02,440 Dude, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the casual lineups like 568 00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:06,320 double fade this game. Oh yeah, I I think you will see 569 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:10,320 that and I I think you might even see hard fates plus Jake 570 00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:13,080 Elliott like that like stuff where you're like, what are you 571 00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:16,560 thinking here? Like there's like you the only 572 00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:19,560 way you you're guaranteeing just Jake Elliott at best. 573 00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:22,760 But I think you'll get some of that I and I think like part of 574 00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:24,400 it, you know with Devonte Smith, right? 575 00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:26,400 Like, he's not that appealing of a play. 576 00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:32,360 And then you also have the potential for like them to win 577 00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:34,560 the game. And then you're bummed because 578 00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:36,880 like Demonte Smith has kind of a whatever game and then AJ 579 00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:38,320 Brown's coming back the next game. 580 00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:42,960 So now you you're like, I wish, I wish I just played Brown or 581 00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,520 whatever, you know. And so I don't know, it's just 582 00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:47,920 like tough. It's tough to, like, envision 583 00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:52,360 Demonte Smith as a bet on the Eagles, you know what I mean? 584 00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:54,320 Yeah, he did. He did start. 585 00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:55,760 I mean, like the second-half of the year. 586 00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:57,080 I know. Just doing the projections drove 587 00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:59,160 me crazy because like for a while there, every week it was 588 00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:02,160 like we have to manually up AJ Brown's efficiency. 589 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:05,080 And then we finally did it. And then he stunk for five games 590 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,240 and Devante was pretty good down the stretch. 591 00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:10,960 So the second-half of the season they were a lot closer. 592 00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:13,520 But overall the target shares been kind of wide? 593 00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,320 And that's why I think it just be, even with the quarterbacks 594 00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:21,360 banged up, just like full fading this game, or even full soft 595 00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:23,200 fading, feels like such a mistake. 596 00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:26,600 I mean, the Eagles in the box are what two of the top five 597 00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:30,000 defenses we've been targeting all year in DFS think. 598 00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,120 I mean, like these are, these are the spots. 599 00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:34,160 Like what? It's like them, the Commanders, 600 00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:35,640 I mean, they're at the top of the list. 601 00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:40,640 Yeah, I don't. I don't know how you would get 602 00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,880 through this contest with not wanting to have exposure to that 603 00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,200 game in full, honestly. Like, I think fading like fades 604 00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:50,600 from that game feel difficult to me, that it feels like there'd 605 00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:54,680 be better spots to fade because just the like, we're talking 606 00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:56,400 about all these weather situations and whatnot. 607 00:30:56,400 --> 00:31:00,480 I assume it's going to be good weather in Tampa. 2 defenses 608 00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:02,880 have really struggled. It's just, it seems like it's 609 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:06,560 going to be hard to avoid finding a game that's pretty 610 00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:11,480 darn worthwhile in the in, you know, in this, in the scoring 611 00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:14,240 environment. The other thing on the weather 612 00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:18,000 front, like we're all talking about it this weekend, but all 613 00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:22,120 the home teams throughout the playoffs are going to be, even 614 00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:25,000 if it could be bad weather again, you know, in Kansas City, 615 00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:29,120 Buffalo or Baltimore would not be shocking, you know, if there 616 00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:32,440 were more weather issues. NFC side's completely clear, you 617 00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,200 know. Well, let's let's talk about the 618 00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:37,440 hurt. The hurt stuff more, just from 619 00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:43,560 the lens of what non Allen and her or Lamar quarterbacks are 620 00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:45,920 viable because that, you know, we all are in agreement. 621 00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:48,880 The field is going to be playing Lamar and Allen at like a 622 00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:51,600 massive clip. And then the question is, 623 00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:56,000 whatever that 10 to 15% of leftover quarterback ownership, 624 00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:59,760 like, where can you smartly do that? 625 00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:05,800 I mean, I think this is the most condensed quarterback field 626 00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,080 we've seen since we've been covering the contest. 627 00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:13,040 You have Lamar's is I think pretty good quarterback chalk at 628 00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:16,680 this point because of how high Josh Allen will be and Josh 629 00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,840 Allen also a very strong play. Like neither one of them feels 630 00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:22,520 like, you know, kind of out of control because they're sort of 631 00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:23,960 keeping each other in check a bit. 632 00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:28,480 And then Hertz and Mahomes are both like great fantasy 633 00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:31,800 quarterbacks, last year's Super Bowl representatives and will be 634 00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,760 very low owned. So I think they're strong plays. 635 00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,520 And then you have DAC and Purdy, we're the one and two seed in 636 00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:41,720 the NFC and are going to be even less owned I think than Mahomes 637 00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:44,240 and Hertz. So I think they're pretty 638 00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:48,240 viable, although you know the whole teammate conversation 639 00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:49,680 comes into play there in a big way. 640 00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:54,120 But like why get past that? Like if you if we're talking 641 00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:59,720 like a couple percent on DAC or Purdy maybe 5% ish on Mahomes 642 00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:02,840 and and Hertz like that's contrarian enough. 643 00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:05,960 I I don't really see the point really of of trying to play like 644 00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:07,880 a Stafford line up or something like that. 645 00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:12,080 Yeah, especially because some of these quarterbacks, like, not 646 00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:15,880 only would you need them to make the Super Bowl, which is low 647 00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:18,760 odds, you would need them to outscore their teammates, and 648 00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,960 you would need Lamar Allen and Hertz to still fail in like 649 00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:24,400 multiple games. Like there's a lot you would 650 00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:28,520 need to get right. It's not just like, oh, if the 651 00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:32,520 Browns go to the Super Bowl like Flacco, like, you know, and Joku 652 00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:36,520 is probably the favorite, you know, the bronze or Amari or 653 00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:38,320 Amari. Like he's he's still not the 654 00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:41,440 favorite on his own team. So I'm with you. 655 00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:44,520 I think it's like there's like 6 quarterbacks you can pick from. 656 00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:46,360 It seems ridiculous to go outside of that. 657 00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:50,920 And then even of those six, I could see whittling it it down 658 00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:53,520 the deck. I think Daff's a little more 659 00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:57,120 appealing to me than Purdy just because I think if you get some 660 00:33:57,240 --> 00:34:00,440 you could heard of, you're competing with like 3 teammates 661 00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:04,280 pretty hard DAC. Obviously you're competing with 662 00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,960 Pollard and Ferguson in addition to Lamb, but we've just seen 663 00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:13,600 some like, you know, 400 yard, 5 touchdown games from DAC that he 664 00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:16,639 could get there with CD still putting up like, you know, 22 a 665 00:34:16,639 --> 00:34:19,920 game or something. Well, yeah, and the way, like a 666 00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:24,400 guy, Kittle and Debo can sometimes separate in a way from 667 00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:26,400 Debo. Whereas like the big cooks in 668 00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:29,880 Ferguson games are generally like DAC is just slinging it 669 00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:31,880 everywhere. And they're not separating from 670 00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:33,360 him, right? That's a good point. 671 00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:37,040 This is, this is the question I've been thinking about easy 672 00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,679 talking about Josh Allen ownership coming down because of 673 00:34:39,679 --> 00:34:42,280 these weather issues, and I think it's a really interesting 674 00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:43,320 thing. We were talking about it with 675 00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:46,360 the Badge Bros earlier as it pertains to the underdog contest 676 00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:49,360 where everyone who takes Josh Allen is, if they're doing it 677 00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:51,000 right, they're just taking one quarterback. 678 00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:55,600 But if this is some like weather apocalypse game and he scores 14 679 00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:58,960 points here and none of these Josh Allen teams advance despite 680 00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:01,400 the Bills winning, you're like in the. 681 00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:03,520 I mean, that's a really shitty spot to be in, but in this 682 00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:08,280 contest you're aren't you just more concerned about one of his 683 00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:12,760 teammates not separating in a really big way in A1 game? 684 00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:17,920 Low scoring, like if James Cook has 150 yards and two TDs in 685 00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:20,200 advance is Then you start to get a little worried about having 686 00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:23,720 Josh Allen as your quarterback. And the his biggest competition 687 00:35:23,720 --> 00:35:25,960 is the guys going to play in the AFC Championship. 688 00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:29,560 So to me it's just like it it the the whole thing in in the 689 00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:33,680 FFPC is do they beat the Ravens, like do they go on and beat the 690 00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:37,360 Ravens or not? Yeah, and I think. 691 00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:41,360 I I was saying. To you guys in in chat earlier 692 00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:42,600 too. Eat a little bit of a Homer 693 00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,520 take, but I actually think like the weather stuff helps him 694 00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:47,840 separate from his teammates a little bit more, at least from 695 00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:51,760 Diggs and Kincaid to an extent. Cook, you can definitely see 696 00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:55,200 like the running game, but like, Josh Halen's gonna run a lot. 697 00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:58,480 And you know, his touchdown equity in these types of games 698 00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:00,040 is pretty high. Obviously if it's a complete 699 00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,840 disaster, which is a problem, then you know it. 700 00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:04,640 It could be. But if it's like a mild 701 00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:08,280 disaster, Allen's scoring expectation comes down a few 702 00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:11,000 points, but like Diggs's comes down even more. 703 00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:15,840 So yeah. Did you make any of those Naji, 704 00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:21,400 Naji plus Bill's hard fade? I don't have it in me. 705 00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:25,040 The guy, the guy wearing a Bill's hoodie doesn't have that 706 00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:31,640 in him. Pat, did you make any ownership 707 00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:34,360 tweaks to the Bill stuff because of the weather? 708 00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:38,120 I just did actually, 'cause I was going to ask you guys, I I 709 00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:41,280 'cause I'm starting to feel like maybe this is all kind of 710 00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:47,400 swinging back towards Lamar Chalk in a bigger way, 'cause 711 00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:50,520 everyone's first thought was Lamar Mega Chalk, and then it 712 00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:53,640 was like, but Allen four games. That's actually really fun. 713 00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:58,240 But I've I've heard stuff, you know, where people are like, you 714 00:36:58,240 --> 00:37:00,560 know, I actually think Lamar's a really great play, given that 715 00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:02,840 he's not going to get out of control, and I feel that way 716 00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:07,080 too. And yeah, if that fourth game 717 00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:11,640 isn't a super appealing reason to play Allen, then you have the 718 00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:15,160 whole thing that we've been talking about all week of Stefan 719 00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:19,680 Diggs, James Cook and Dalton Kincaid versus Zay Flowers. 720 00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:23,280 Gus Edwards and Isaiah Likely and Isaiah likely just got a 721 00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,720 huge hole blown in his appeal. So. 722 00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:28,480 And Gus Edwards was never that appealing. 723 00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:30,680 James Cook always was much more appealing I think. 724 00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:34,560 And then Zay Flowers is not just not that fun of a clique. 725 00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:37,560 So I've been trying, you know, I've got Justin Tucker still up 726 00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:43,080 at 10% and that creates a 13% total fate on the the Ravens 727 00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:45,160 which is super high for a one seed. 728 00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:49,000 But I just think it's because people don't want to like, deal 729 00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,520 with having to click flowers. So they'll just bet against the 730 00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:54,800 Ravens if they're not going to take Lamar. 731 00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:59,400 But maybe they just take Lamar, you know, that would be one way 732 00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:03,640 to kind of avoid that. Well, I mean, Lamar comes in 733 00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:05,880 super high. Yeah, I think it's gonna be 734 00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:08,480 Polar. I think you're gonna see like it 735 00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:13,640 should be like 50% Lamar, 25% DST, 25% Tucker. 736 00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:16,200 Like I I think the skill position players are getting 737 00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:19,960 mega squeezed on the Ravens. I I don't think we could have. 738 00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:23,520 50% fade of the one seed. I just don't think half the 739 00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:26,760 field can do that. You mean a? 740 00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:29,120 You mean a soft fade? Yeah. 741 00:38:29,240 --> 00:38:31,320 Yeah. Basically, play Baltimore to 742 00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:35,720 lose. I just, I I don't see how 743 00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:37,360 people, I mean, they're so. Good. 744 00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:41,720 You know and like you don't want to have to bet on them. 745 00:38:41,720 --> 00:38:45,000 To like Tucker is for as good as Tucker is, you don't want two 746 00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:47,240 games of them. You need the Browns to come in 747 00:38:47,240 --> 00:38:48,760 and beat them. And I don't think half I. 748 00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:50,000 I agree. With you. 749 00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:53,800 But if the market thought the Ravens were so good, Lamar would 750 00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:57,200 be 75% off. I do think the. 751 00:38:57,200 --> 00:38:58,000 That's what I'm saying. Maybe. 752 00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:00,480 Maybe. I think Lamar probably goes up. 753 00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:05,320 I could see the soft fade on Baltimore survive two games, 754 00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:09,320 obviously not into the Super Bowl, and other people kind of 755 00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:11,200 think that. I could definitely see the soft 756 00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:14,200 fade higher than expected, which would make zay flowers like kind 757 00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:16,480 of interesting, but. I think, yeah, I mean, Zay's 758 00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:19,640 going to be like 15% and Andrews is going to catch at least like 759 00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:22,440 5%, just 'cause he's practicing. And I think Gus I. 760 00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:24,400 Don't think, I don't think. How can you play Andrews? 761 00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:25,960 You're not getting the first game out of him. 762 00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:27,440 I don't think anyone's playing Andrews. 763 00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:31,200 You don't think anyone? 'S zaya I think he can even get 764 00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:31,560 to. Zaya. 765 00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:36,560 No, I haven't won. What's your zay ownership at? 766 00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:37,400 Right. Nineteen. 767 00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:40,760 Well, I'm I'm currently as we talk, I'm raising Lamar 768 00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:43,840 significantly but I I still haven't been 19 with Lamar at 60 769 00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:45,120 now. This is all. 770 00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:47,120 Just my backdoor plan gets you to raise Lamar. 771 00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:49,760 So I'm like, well, we got one. More job, you know that is that 772 00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:51,680 is what's happening. So I'm I'm just gonna lower 773 00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:57,680 Lamar down to 58. Let me let me ask you a 774 00:39:57,720 --> 00:40:02,200 question, Dink, on some of these like decisions on say, if you're 775 00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:05,840 playing a player. In a in a loss, like how much do 776 00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:08,680 you want to get in the projections on this single week 777 00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:09,960 stuff? Because I feel like a lot of 778 00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:13,480 that isn't necessarily discussed because everyone kind of views 779 00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:16,320 it from like the macro landscape. 780 00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:18,200 Are they win or losing? Are they getting 2 games? 781 00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:19,800 Are they getting one? But I haven't. 782 00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:23,520 Heard a ton of talk of like, OK, how does Dallas Gotter actually 783 00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:26,120 project versus Devonta Smith if A.J. 784 00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,600 Brown is out? Yeah. 785 00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:33,560 And I think what we've talked about a lot in the past in in 786 00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:37,720 these shows is when you're playing those spots to lose that 787 00:40:37,720 --> 00:40:40,080 you know players gonna are from a team that is going to be 788 00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:42,400 chalky in terms of they're gonna have funnel ownership to a 789 00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:43,600 skilled player in the first round. 790 00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:46,560 Even though we're expecting them to lose that, we're often. 791 00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:48,160 That's kind of the time that we start talking about the 792 00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:50,360 projections in week one and trying to understand kind of the 793 00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:52,600 differences in the ownership versus the differences in the 794 00:40:52,600 --> 00:40:54,200 projections that we're getting in those spots. 795 00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:58,080 And I think that's kind of the the best use case for it. 796 00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:00,800 But I also think there's like as it as we were talking through 797 00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:03,000 the Baltimore stuff, the thing that's so fascinating about this 798 00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:05,160 contest is just constantly having to compare guys to their 799 00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:07,840 teammates. And as you're talking through 800 00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:13,200 the Baltimore stuff like I'm thinking man, ultimately like if 801 00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:16,280 your decision is Allen versus Lamar at a quarterback position. 802 00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:19,520 If you're doing like one line up in this thing because ultimately 803 00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:21,520 like you're playing one of those two teams to get to the Super 804 00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:22,960 Bowl. If you're playing the Allen 805 00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:24,720 side, like where do you go on the Ravens side? 806 00:41:24,720 --> 00:41:30,320 And if most people are going to go to kicker or or full fade, my 807 00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:33,160 first thought is like, man, defense is kind of interesting 808 00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:36,200 in that spot for the Ravens because they could have a really 809 00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:38,760 strong game that they win against Cleveland where they 810 00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:42,080 shut them down, keep Cleveland kind of in check naturally, 811 00:41:42,080 --> 00:41:45,360 their defense scores. Well, maybe it's a Gus game 812 00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:48,520 that, you know, is fine for one week but doesn't really impact 813 00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:52,280 the position as a whole during the course of the the the 814 00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:54,320 contest. And then you get a second game 815 00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:57,720 against Josh Allen, who is probably good for a few points 816 00:41:57,720 --> 00:42:00,960 just with sacks and turnovers, even if even if they're able to 817 00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:03,600 get past the Ravens. And so, like, I think there's 818 00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:07,640 some weird iterations just on that team specifically because 819 00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:10,240 they spread things out so much and because it's so like the 820 00:42:10,240 --> 00:42:12,720 opportunity cost at the skill positions is so much higher than 821 00:42:12,720 --> 00:42:15,520 the opportunity cost of the defense that the Ravens defense 822 00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:19,080 is like, I'm in a little bit of a mind meld here, but maybe 823 00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:21,240 interesting even if you're expecting them to win a game but 824 00:42:21,240 --> 00:42:25,600 not advance to the Super Bowl. Jacob Sanderson had called them 825 00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:27,200 out early in the week as his favorite play. 826 00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:30,200 And I I think I think it's really intriguing because I do 827 00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:34,840 think Tucker is going to be, you know, the the way and most 828 00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:37,040 people play it right? It's it's Tucker. 829 00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:38,840 Like, if you're like, I'm going to fade the Ravens, you're 830 00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:41,600 almost not even thinking that much further about it. 831 00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:43,800 You're like, I don't play Justin Tucker 'cause that's a sweet way 832 00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:46,040 to take care of kicker. Does the weather narrative 833 00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:49,360 become so overwhelming that they start worrying about Justin 834 00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:52,880 Tucker in two? Two weeks from now, I'm. 835 00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:55,640 Telling you don't put anything fast, the weather grows for 836 00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:57,000 getting their. Panties in a bunch, That's. 837 00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:01,760 Fun The FFPCDST scoring's really volatile, too. 838 00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:07,320 Where like if Baltimore played Cleveland in Baltimore, you 839 00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:11,840 know, and they just dominated that game like that that that 840 00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:15,400 score be the highest DST score without, you know, any points 841 00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:19,080 the next week, you know, you get Flacco on the road in Baltimore, 842 00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:22,800 I mean, they're probably gonna have a pretty good match up no 843 00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:25,160 matter what, you know? What do you think? 844 00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:28,640 The What do you think? If, if we were taking out the 845 00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:31,680 teammates part of it and like the optimal lineup part about it 846 00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:35,800 and like you just summed the defensive points at the end of 847 00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:38,640 the week, like what are we, What are at the end of the contest? 848 00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:41,000 What are we projecting like the highest scoring defense for? 849 00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:42,240 And like how? How? 850 00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:46,560 Like how viable is it to score in one game in? 851 00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:51,120 In FFPC it's usually like I remember last year it was like 852 00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:55,400 14 or 13 because you don't get a lot of point dolphins. 853 00:43:56,160 --> 00:43:57,520 It was dolphins. Last year. 854 00:43:57,840 --> 00:44:00,680 And they did score at TD so that so you know you get the, you get 855 00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:03,320 the take away in the TD and you often get the eight point play 856 00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:06,720 there and then a couple other you know takeaways or one other 857 00:44:06,720 --> 00:44:09,240 take away and a few sacks. It's usually the low. 858 00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:12,440 It's just over 10. Between 10 and 15 is the high 859 00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:16,320 the my recollection. Loud segment of it, Dink is like 860 00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:19,720 after 13 points, nothing matters, right? 861 00:44:19,800 --> 00:44:23,000 Like, yeah, Yeah, it's wild, yeah. 862 00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:26,760 Yeah. No, no, Baltimore, Baltimore 863 00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:30,040 defense is kind of interesting to me on the on Josh Allen teams 864 00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:35,040 specifically, for sure, yeah. But that's I think where you get 865 00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:40,400 to a really high. So now I've gotten it up to 15% 866 00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:44,080 since we started talking. But I mean that that's not, 867 00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:46,040 that's not how this contest is usually played. 868 00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:50,480 Usually people go with the one seeds and the the teams that 869 00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:52,040 have a really high chance of making the Super Bowl. 870 00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:57,480 Like last year, the Chiefs were at 1% total fade, Eagles at 3%, 871 00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:04,240 Bills at 1%, 49ers at 2%. So you're just like you normally 872 00:45:04,240 --> 00:45:09,000 don't see that at all. I think it'll be a little 873 00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:11,080 different this year just because of how you have to, you know, 874 00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:14,320 just because of the way the Ravens set up, as we've 875 00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:16,840 discussed. But like, how different is the 876 00:45:16,840 --> 00:45:19,680 question I'm I'm wrestling with Because I don't. 877 00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:24,600 I don't think, like if it starts to feel like, man, I really just 878 00:45:24,600 --> 00:45:30,080 don't want to play any other Ravens other than Lamar rather 879 00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:33,240 than all the field kind of flocking to defense and kicker. 880 00:45:33,240 --> 00:45:35,200 I think we'll just see Lamar come in higher than we're 881 00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:39,280 thinking. Yeah, I mean the DST play is 882 00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:42,080 definitely interesting as Ding talks it through to like if you 883 00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:44,800 think again in an Allen lineup, you're playing Bill C with the 884 00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:47,800 Super Bowl. If you think they can get there 885 00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:52,360 in two games, then you sort of maybe play both sides too of 886 00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:57,720 like Houston, Cleveland and you free roll the upset of one game 887 00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:00,160 of Baltimore, you know in addition to that. 888 00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:02,280 I do like that. You do. 889 00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:05,840 You play both sides of Houston, Cleveland, fade Baltimore. 890 00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:07,560 And it's like I don't know who's beating them, but someone is. 891 00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:10,760 You probably play Tyreek too, you know, just so that. 892 00:46:10,760 --> 00:46:12,280 Everybody's. Yeah, you got it covered. 893 00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:15,080 Yeah, three ways. Yeah, you might as well. 894 00:46:15,560 --> 00:46:19,920 It's like a little bit too sort of safe in at first glance, but 895 00:46:20,720 --> 00:46:23,200 you know you don't. If you're predicting something 896 00:46:23,200 --> 00:46:26,280 as big as the one seed loses in round one, you might as well 897 00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:28,800 keep all of your your bullets live. 898 00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:35,320 Yeah, you could play Miami fade, I guess with AKC player and just 899 00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:38,440 hope Miami loses and then Baltimore has to play it. 900 00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:40,480 Would suck if Baltimore lost to Miami, though. 901 00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:42,240 And now you're like, yeah, for sure. 902 00:46:42,240 --> 00:46:44,120 You know, you might. I think you just played Tyreek. 903 00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:51,000 Or a Chan maybe. Yeah, let Dink. 904 00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:54,640 Did you get a chance to look at all at the ownership projections 905 00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:56,440 for this for, like, the most popular place? 906 00:46:57,360 --> 00:46:59,560 Liani sent them to me somewhere in here I just have. 907 00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:01,160 I have not looked at them deeply. 908 00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:02,920 I was. I was gonna try to get a little 909 00:47:03,680 --> 00:47:06,280 established 1,000,000 good shock, bad shock and see if you 910 00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:10,600 had any bad shock that stands out to you at the the top of the 911 00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:12,320 ownership. Yeah. 912 00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:15,640 Let me take a peek now as as we're going through. 913 00:47:22,320 --> 00:47:26,240 So it's this this contest is just like constantly putting my 914 00:47:26,240 --> 00:47:31,240 brain in a pretzel with like the thing I would say like, so if 915 00:47:31,240 --> 00:47:34,360 we're just going by team in terms of like just scrolling 916 00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:39,800 through each team. Yeah, right off the bat, like 917 00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:45,920 the if, if this Laporta stuff holds, obviously I'm not like 918 00:47:46,280 --> 00:47:49,080 it's not it's not chalk. But like I I I guess I at the 919 00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:51,120 tight end spot. That one's confusing me a little 920 00:47:51,120 --> 00:47:52,360 bit. Is it just Kelsey is like 921 00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:53,600 everybody just gonna play Kelsey? 922 00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:55,440 In Joku. I think in. 923 00:47:55,840 --> 00:47:57,920 Joku, this is what we're. Wrestling with Yeah. 924 00:47:58,400 --> 00:47:58,960 Yeah, yeah. Yeah. 925 00:47:59,280 --> 00:48:01,520 OK. My take last night was there's 926 00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:06,240 so much anti Kelsey sentiment and so much positive Pacheco 927 00:48:06,240 --> 00:48:09,760 sentiment that Pacheco could flip Kelsey and the Joku could 928 00:48:10,040 --> 00:48:12,400 become the chalk tight end. There's also a lot of positive 929 00:48:12,400 --> 00:48:16,840 brown sentiment right there, like or maybe I'm just consuming 930 00:48:16,840 --> 00:48:18,400 too much legendary upside content. 931 00:48:18,400 --> 00:48:22,280 I don't know. But but I mean, there's a lot of 932 00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:26,520 positive brown sentiment on being able to upset Houston or 933 00:48:26,520 --> 00:48:29,600 not upset Houston, but move on past Houston and then give 934 00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:31,960 Baltimore a really good game. So that makes sense to me, that 935 00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:34,680 Njoku would be well above Kelsey. 936 00:48:35,360 --> 00:48:37,000 I I don't. I don't have it like. 937 00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:41,640 That be above but I. I have Njoku 29, Cooper 34. 938 00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:44,600 Pete got me to flip that last night, and I flipped it back 939 00:48:44,600 --> 00:48:47,360 today, but partly because who's? In your ear. 940 00:48:47,360 --> 00:48:49,440 That has more weight than my thoughts, Pat. 941 00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:53,160 Honestly, honestly, the brown stuff is what triggered it 942 00:48:53,160 --> 00:48:56,840 because that creates more Goddard and that allows you to 943 00:48:56,840 --> 00:48:59,280 come off 'cause I think if you're just deciding between 944 00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:04,000 even a tight end premium Cooper lit up this Texans defense in 945 00:49:04,000 --> 00:49:07,360 Week 16, like I don't, I don't think that's that's lost on 946 00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:09,880 people. They want to try to recapture 947 00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:14,680 that that spike week, you know so if you're if you don't need 948 00:49:14,680 --> 00:49:18,440 to cover the position then I think you just pick Cooper more 949 00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:23,080 often than not as a flex and gotter helps fill some of those 950 00:49:23,080 --> 00:49:28,160 tight end percentage points. And then yeah, I have Kelsey 30 951 00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:32,400 or 45% because I mean it's Travis, Kelsey in tight end 952 00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:34,120 premium. I think I'm counting on the 953 00:49:34,120 --> 00:49:35,600 boomers to come through for me here. 954 00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:37,680 That's why I think. They're wrong. 955 00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:41,040 I think a boomer looks at the two V2 and they fucking love the 956 00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:44,200 Najoku Pacheco side. I mean, the joke is better I. 957 00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:45,800 Think they're going to be closer than you have it. 958 00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:48,160 I think Kelsey. I think Kelsey had, but I 959 00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:51,320 probably have it closer. My immediate in looking at this 960 00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:55,480 is I want to put in Joku, even if it's a flex over Cooper and 961 00:49:55,480 --> 00:50:00,200 every lineup that I do and I had, I like. 962 00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:03,480 That taking like if people are gonna click Cooper more like 963 00:50:03,600 --> 00:50:07,360 playing Kelsey and Njoku in some lineups is interesting. 964 00:50:07,760 --> 00:50:10,240 That's what I'm saying. I think on Wednesday and I have 965 00:50:10,320 --> 00:50:13,280 our I've been making lineups and I just made what Leonie that 966 00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:16,480 literally does that I made two lineups and one of them has that 967 00:50:17,720 --> 00:50:20,640 I want to put a Joku in. Like every I put him in both of 968 00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:23,960 these lineups, like he was so consistent for the last five or 969 00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:27,120 six weeks that he played. Omari had one explosion game, 970 00:50:27,120 --> 00:50:30,080 one other solid game, and then go look at his game, lock. 971 00:50:30,160 --> 00:50:32,480 The rest of it is not that impressive, and Djoko's been. 972 00:50:32,720 --> 00:50:34,320 Very. Not the franchise record. 973 00:50:34,320 --> 00:50:44,320 And it's nothing. The I do think the just the 974 00:50:44,320 --> 00:50:48,280 total frequency of two tight end lineups is going to be at all 975 00:50:48,280 --> 00:50:51,520 time lows. Just even having 2-2 tight ends 976 00:50:51,520 --> 00:50:55,600 in your lineup will probably already send you on a pretty 977 00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:57,240 unique path. I agree. 978 00:50:57,640 --> 00:50:59,120 Yeah, and I have it projected like that. 979 00:50:59,120 --> 00:51:02,560 It's much lower than usual. But there's a real there's an 980 00:51:02,560 --> 00:51:04,440 interesting discussion there because I think you can do it 981 00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:07,360 with Kelsey and Joku, 'cause I think those are the 2 premium 982 00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:10,120 tight end plays. I think any other tight end play 983 00:51:10,120 --> 00:51:13,560 loses some luster if you play them in a more than one tight 984 00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:16,080 end, 'cause part of what you're doing is you're saying if Kelsey 985 00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:19,640 and Joku both fail, they're just the best tight end that fills 986 00:51:19,640 --> 00:51:22,240 that one tight end spot. Like, I don't think it makes a 987 00:51:22,240 --> 00:51:25,360 lot of sense to be flexing Dalton, Kincaid, or potentially 988 00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:27,920 even Goddard. I think you you want those guys 989 00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:31,200 the math and the constraint of needing a tight end to help. 990 00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:34,760 Goddard, I think Goddard you you got to start directly comparing 991 00:51:34,760 --> 00:51:38,760 to teammates then at that point like, and I could see got like 992 00:51:38,760 --> 00:51:41,240 if AJ Brown's out and Devonta Smith has a bad game. 993 00:51:41,240 --> 00:51:43,160 Yeah, you know. Well, that's why I like Schultz 994 00:51:43,160 --> 00:51:46,080 so much, 'cause I don't think it's that crazy for him to 995 00:51:46,080 --> 00:51:49,440 separate from his teammates. Yeah, I like the Houston guys. 996 00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:53,080 Yeah, I mean, we talked about playing both sides of the only 997 00:51:53,080 --> 00:51:55,160 Tampa Bay, but both sides of Cleveland, Houston. 998 00:51:55,400 --> 00:51:57,640 It's not just teammates, it's it. 999 00:51:57,640 --> 00:52:00,800 It's if he loses, he has to be one of the top two scoring skill 1000 00:52:00,800 --> 00:52:03,280 position players of all the six teams that lose. 1001 00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:06,920 Or if they win, then he has to separate over multiple games. 1002 00:52:07,200 --> 00:52:09,400 Those are the only two options. You can't separate one game 1003 00:52:09,720 --> 00:52:11,560 without also beating skill guys. I don't know. 1004 00:52:11,560 --> 00:52:13,320 It has to be like Tyree Kill, right? 1005 00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:14,000 It's not. It's not. 1006 00:52:14,040 --> 00:52:16,840 Separating from six teams. It's separating from the other 1007 00:52:16,840 --> 00:52:20,880 teams that are like hard and soft faded, yeah. 1008 00:52:21,360 --> 00:52:24,400 Yeah, there's six losers on an opening weekend. 2 skill guys 1009 00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:27,680 from those are required. He has to be one of the top two. 1010 00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:30,160 So he has to beat Tyree Kill. He has to beat, you know, some 1011 00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:33,800 of those guys as well. Unless Miami defense, of course. 1012 00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:35,520 A touchdown, you know, or yeah. Yeah. 1013 00:52:36,000 --> 00:52:39,080 But it's all tricky, though. It's defensive kicker coming. 1014 00:52:39,080 --> 00:52:41,600 To play. So I adjusted the ownership 1015 00:52:41,640 --> 00:52:45,680 projections on these tight ends. I wanna see what you guys think. 1016 00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:52,240 Glad I got back in your ear. Can you share my screen key? 1017 00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:56,760 Yeah, as you're pulling this up, I did just check like so in the 1018 00:52:57,400 --> 00:53:00,800 in the underdog pick em. Both Najoku and Kelsey set at 5 1019 00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:05,120 1/2 receptions for their line. Kelsey's at 57 1/2 receiving 1020 00:53:05,120 --> 00:53:08,920 yards, and Najoku's at 54 1/2. Like basically identical. 1021 00:53:10,000 --> 00:53:16,560 The I I I don't like Fading CD too much, but I do like the 1022 00:53:17,720 --> 00:53:21,560 Ferguson play a little bit, making sure you have a Ram skill 1023 00:53:21,560 --> 00:53:23,120 player. I'm kind of hoping you get a 1024 00:53:23,120 --> 00:53:26,120 loss in Ferguson. You mean Packers? 1025 00:53:27,200 --> 00:53:29,440 Or Packers. Yeah, sorry, Packers skill 1026 00:53:29,440 --> 00:53:32,240 player, which isn't gonna be owned much. 1027 00:53:32,480 --> 00:53:33,920 You. Know well would that be a single 1028 00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:35,240 tight end or you do you like that in? 1029 00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:39,280 That be single tight end I would want that I I'm I'm with you in 1030 00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:41,160 general gretcheck. I don't want a lot of two tight 1031 00:53:41,200 --> 00:53:44,600 ends. I I do think there's some routes 1032 00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:46,360 where it's interesting just cause the field's not gonna do 1033 00:53:46,360 --> 00:53:49,320 it at all. But yeah, Ferguson for me would 1034 00:53:49,320 --> 00:53:53,360 be like if you want him to compete with CD like that's 1035 00:53:53,360 --> 00:53:54,960 that's. That's why, yeah. 1036 00:53:54,960 --> 00:53:57,000 That's why I wanted to ask that question, 'cause I feel like 1037 00:53:57,000 --> 00:53:59,400 he's a great example of one where I would want him to be a 1038 00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:01,360 single, too. That's that's a great example of 1039 00:54:01,360 --> 00:54:03,160 that. So Greg, Greg, your thought 1040 00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:06,760 process on the single tight end is basically you're hoping that 1041 00:54:06,760 --> 00:54:10,720 the tight end position is just not not, it's a fate of the 1042 00:54:10,720 --> 00:54:14,120 tight end position generally. So Goddard, Schultz, Ferguson, 1043 00:54:14,120 --> 00:54:16,680 these guys are like single tight end only type builds. 1044 00:54:16,960 --> 00:54:20,920 Or the ones that perform over multiple games have other 1045 00:54:20,920 --> 00:54:23,240 teammates really crushing at other positions, right? 1046 00:54:23,240 --> 00:54:25,840 So Kelsey could still be good over multiple games, but Pacheco 1047 00:54:25,840 --> 00:54:28,680 really runs hot and you need him as a running back. 1048 00:54:28,680 --> 00:54:31,360 And so the math works essentially that they're the 1049 00:54:31,360 --> 00:54:34,680 only legit like one and done tight end. 1050 00:54:34,680 --> 00:54:39,200 Like if they put up a 1520 point game as a one and done the math 1051 00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:41,400 might work out where like they they make sense as the single 1052 00:54:41,400 --> 00:54:43,880 tight end and there's no other tight end that that fits in. 1053 00:54:45,720 --> 00:54:49,320 That makes for 60 is getting you to 15, which is kind of crazy, 1054 00:54:49,320 --> 00:54:52,640 but like you're you're live with a six for 60 on a loser. 1055 00:54:54,880 --> 00:54:59,960 So so here's this new run here of the tight end stuff or the 1056 00:54:59,960 --> 00:55:03,680 Cleveland KC stuff. Kelsey's still ahead, but just 1057 00:55:03,680 --> 00:55:06,360 by 2%. What do you guys think of this? 1058 00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:11,640 Njoku 35, Cooper 28? Pacheco now becomes the chalk 1059 00:55:11,640 --> 00:55:16,080 play on the two teams of 44. Yeah, I think. 1060 00:55:16,680 --> 00:55:20,720 This seems good to me, yeah? Yeah. 1061 00:55:20,720 --> 00:55:23,800 Early in the week, we kind of thought Klyron would be really 1062 00:55:23,800 --> 00:55:26,080 chalky running back. But I do think it makes sense to 1063 00:55:26,080 --> 00:55:29,160 kind of have that a little more even between him and Pacheco, 1064 00:55:29,240 --> 00:55:31,320 which you already kind of had a little bit before you tweaked 1065 00:55:31,320 --> 00:55:34,680 this, but. Do you think there's any chance 1066 00:55:34,680 --> 00:55:36,760 for Cooper? Being higher, I could see Cooper 1067 00:55:36,760 --> 00:55:40,280 being higher and just maybe. Just the deepest thing to do. 1068 00:55:42,560 --> 00:55:44,920 If it was Cooper higher, it would be Cleveland D coming 1069 00:55:44,920 --> 00:55:46,520 down, probably. Yeah, maybe not. 1070 00:55:46,560 --> 00:55:47,880 Maybe not. Maybe that's right. 1071 00:55:47,880 --> 00:55:49,880 Then Cleveland D's probably gonna be pretty chalky, and you 1072 00:55:49,880 --> 00:55:51,240 basically have nothing else. So. 1073 00:55:51,640 --> 00:55:53,720 People might wanna pick the weather DS. 1074 00:55:55,520 --> 00:55:58,960 Right. Yeah, Pittsburgh DST is probably 1075 00:55:58,960 --> 00:56:02,080 gonna be really high, I think. Really, 'cause I came off that 1076 00:56:02,080 --> 00:56:03,600 with the TJ Watt stuff. The news. 1077 00:56:03,640 --> 00:56:05,480 Everybody keeps saying, but you don't have TJ Watt. 1078 00:56:05,480 --> 00:56:07,360 You can't, you know. TJ Watt you can't play Steelers 1079 00:56:07,360 --> 00:56:09,400 D maybe? You maybe you guys are right, I 1080 00:56:09,440 --> 00:56:12,480 was just. I think, I think toilet phone 1081 00:56:12,480 --> 00:56:15,960 shitter Bros are just like I want literally nothing to do 1082 00:56:15,960 --> 00:56:19,040 with the Steelers and not thinking through like how that 1083 00:56:19,040 --> 00:56:22,520 defensive element works. Yeah, that makes sense. 1084 00:56:25,080 --> 00:56:30,760 Yeah, I think this look this looks like spot on to me as far 1085 00:56:30,760 --> 00:56:37,280 as Najoku pacing, Pacheco pacing and yet Kelsey still coming in 1086 00:56:37,280 --> 00:56:39,760 higher than the Najoku. Like, I think that's threading 1087 00:56:39,760 --> 00:56:41,320 the needle in about the right way there. 1088 00:56:42,160 --> 00:56:44,360 OK. All right. 1089 00:56:48,160 --> 00:56:51,600 I'm trying to think what are there any other kind of spots 1090 00:56:51,600 --> 00:56:55,400 that have been in flux that are or or are there any other spots 1091 00:56:55,400 --> 00:56:58,120 Pat, you've been kind of really agonizing over? 1092 00:56:58,960 --> 00:57:01,840 Well the the Rams one I think is interesting to talk through 1093 00:57:01,840 --> 00:57:05,720 because as Leonie said early in the week we thought that and I 1094 00:57:05,720 --> 00:57:06,920 stopped sharing but I shouldn't have. 1095 00:57:07,000 --> 00:57:11,920 I'll, I'll bring that one up. The early week sentiment was 1096 00:57:11,920 --> 00:57:15,600 Kyron chalk and Kyron kind of like bad chalk easy to avoid 1097 00:57:15,600 --> 00:57:20,680 chalk anytime. It's super obvious we we don't 1098 00:57:20,680 --> 00:57:23,800 even need to play this chalk it. It might mean that it's not 1099 00:57:23,840 --> 00:57:29,120 actually that big a chalk, and I think Puka is probably where 1100 00:57:29,120 --> 00:57:32,920 people go to as they move off of Kyron a little bit. 1101 00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:37,440 And I think if this Kelsey number's right, then this Kyron 1102 00:57:37,440 --> 00:57:39,840 number might be a little too high still. 1103 00:57:40,880 --> 00:57:45,040 Because Kyron, I think to a large degree, is just hoping 1104 00:57:45,040 --> 00:57:48,400 fill a weak running back position rather than a play 1105 00:57:48,400 --> 00:57:50,840 people are super excited about, especially at ownership. 1106 00:57:52,440 --> 00:57:55,400 Through the. Yeah, because what you're saying 1107 00:57:55,400 --> 00:57:59,160 is that people aren't going to like the Chalk build won't have 1108 00:57:59,160 --> 00:58:03,080 Kyron, Pacheco and CMC, that they'll just say, I already 1109 00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:04,600 filled it with Pacheco, I'll play Puka. 1110 00:58:05,280 --> 00:58:07,600 Yeah, or or why not play Kelsey in this lineup? 1111 00:58:07,680 --> 00:58:09,240 Because I don't need Pacheco here. 1112 00:58:10,080 --> 00:58:12,880 I like that logic a lot. This is tricky and it does seem 1113 00:58:12,880 --> 00:58:14,880 like it's going to be really high on those three. 1114 00:58:14,880 --> 00:58:18,400 Like you have very little for everything else combined, fades 1115 00:58:18,400 --> 00:58:21,120 and everything. I will say the puka and cup 1116 00:58:21,120 --> 00:58:26,480 combined here you have at 54 and I think 54 puka and cup combined 1117 00:58:26,480 --> 00:58:29,840 compared to 41%. Kyron puts it into perspective 1118 00:58:29,840 --> 00:58:32,400 for me a little better. Where I don't think he gets much 1119 00:58:32,400 --> 00:58:35,000 lower than that, 'cause I do think there's still an element 1120 00:58:35,000 --> 00:58:36,880 where a lot of people are going to say I don't want to pick 1121 00:58:36,880 --> 00:58:39,480 between the receiver, I'm going to just take Kyron. 1122 00:58:39,720 --> 00:58:42,560 And he did just score 3 touchdowns in the fantasy 1123 00:58:42,560 --> 00:58:43,360 championship. Too. 1124 00:58:43,360 --> 00:58:44,680 That's true. That's true. 1125 00:58:44,720 --> 00:58:47,400 Yeah, there's kind of a point at which it's like, well, I don't 1126 00:58:47,400 --> 00:58:50,720 have to think too hard. And I also think there's it is 1127 00:58:50,720 --> 00:58:53,240 the FFPC. Like people aren't gonna be real 1128 00:58:53,240 --> 00:58:57,880 bummed if they have, you know, Kyron Williams, Isaiah Pacheco 1129 00:58:57,920 --> 00:59:00,800 and CMC, like, you know, or maybe even throw, Like you might 1130 00:59:00,800 --> 00:59:02,120 see some line UPS with those guys. 1131 00:59:02,120 --> 00:59:04,400 Plus Rashad White. Like, it's like, dude, I can 1132 00:59:04,400 --> 00:59:05,080 play this. Four. 1133 00:59:05,080 --> 00:59:05,920 I would. I would. 1134 00:59:05,920 --> 00:59:11,320 Still probably have Kyron north of 45, closer to 50. 1135 00:59:11,320 --> 00:59:15,920 I think people, even though the market is definitely on board 1136 00:59:15,920 --> 00:59:20,320 with Puka 1A Cooper One BI, still think the psychological 1137 00:59:20,320 --> 00:59:24,240 thought process is like, man, what if I go Puka and fucking 1138 00:59:24,240 --> 00:59:28,120 Cooper Cup, winds back the clock and has the nuke game and I 1139 00:59:28,120 --> 00:59:30,320 picked it wrong? You know, like I think they will 1140 00:59:30,320 --> 00:59:33,880 both kind of cannibalize each other a little bit in a way. 1141 00:59:36,240 --> 00:59:40,560 It's also like, it's also the way that I'm feeling while 1142 00:59:40,560 --> 00:59:42,800 looking through these teams and these line UPS and stuff is I 1143 00:59:42,800 --> 00:59:45,280 have a lot of guys at wide receiver that I'm like, oh that 1144 00:59:45,280 --> 00:59:47,680 that's fun to plug in. I don't have a lot of guys at 1145 00:59:47,680 --> 00:59:49,160 running back that's fun to plug in. 1146 00:59:49,160 --> 00:59:52,960 So like it it feels like if you have a team that has both 1147 00:59:52,960 --> 00:59:56,560 options that people are going to be like, well, I've got wide 1148 00:59:56,560 --> 00:59:58,360 receivers on other teams that I feel good about. 1149 00:59:58,360 --> 01:00:01,120 Like I can get wide receivers in into these line UPS. 1150 01:00:01,120 --> 01:00:04,560 Whereas running back it feels like a pretty small pool of guys 1151 01:00:04,560 --> 01:00:07,280 that feel exciting to to click on so. 1152 01:00:08,440 --> 01:00:12,720 And and and especially when like if you compare within this own, 1153 01:00:12,720 --> 01:00:17,120 within this game, right, like Gibbs versus Aman Raw in terms 1154 01:00:17,120 --> 01:00:19,520 of what you're giving up at projection there compared to 1155 01:00:19,520 --> 01:00:23,120 what you're giving up with Kyron versus Puka or Cooper Cup. 1156 01:00:23,400 --> 01:00:27,360 Like it feels very clear to me that people would choose Kyron 1157 01:00:27,360 --> 01:00:32,480 and Aman RA as opposed to like Gibbs and Cup or Gibson Puka or 1158 01:00:32,480 --> 01:00:34,440 whatever. Just seems like that's the way 1159 01:00:34,440 --> 01:00:35,680 they'd. Go. 1160 01:00:36,040 --> 01:00:37,160 What do you. I agree. 1161 01:00:37,160 --> 01:00:42,160 I'm what I'm wondering is maybe if they go Amen RA and puka and 1162 01:00:42,160 --> 01:00:46,080 play CMC Pacheco. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. 1163 01:00:46,080 --> 01:00:48,320 But people aren't playing more than what. 1164 01:00:48,360 --> 01:00:49,600 What's the line of construction you have? 1165 01:00:49,600 --> 01:00:51,800 How many? Two. 2 running backs. 1166 01:00:52,320 --> 01:00:57,040 Yeah, 22 wide receivers, 2 or 4 flexes tight end quarterback. 1167 01:00:57,960 --> 01:00:59,480 Yeah. How many flexes do you think? 1168 01:00:59,480 --> 01:01:02,320 Like, what's the Flex ownership you have at running back right 1169 01:01:02,320 --> 01:01:07,040 now? It's up to .7. 1170 01:01:09,320 --> 01:01:11,680 Feels probably close to right. Yeah. 1171 01:01:12,720 --> 01:01:14,320 I don't, Yeah. I don't think people, I don't 1172 01:01:14,320 --> 01:01:17,080 think many people are gonna play like 4 running backs line UPS. 1173 01:01:17,640 --> 01:01:19,120 No, yeah. Yeah. 1174 01:01:19,160 --> 01:01:21,600 No, honestly, I feel like it feels a little high to me, like 1175 01:01:21,800 --> 01:01:24,600 I I would like to have this closer to 2.5, which is where 1176 01:01:24,600 --> 01:01:27,000 I'm like no there. Will be enough people that, like 1177 01:01:27,000 --> 01:01:30,520 Peter said, do 4 to offset it. Yeah, you probably. 1178 01:01:30,520 --> 01:01:33,440 There There's one guy in an Adrian Peterson jersey who's 1179 01:01:33,440 --> 01:01:36,280 playing CMC Kyron Rashad White and Pacheco. 1180 01:01:36,360 --> 01:01:38,680 Like dude. Does you see some? 1181 01:01:38,960 --> 01:01:41,360 Only thing I disagree with you there, Pete, is that there's 1182 01:01:41,360 --> 01:01:46,440 only one guy in that jersey. I want to ask you guys, like, 1183 01:01:46,480 --> 01:01:50,600 I'm looking at this and I know that the RAM skill players are 1184 01:01:50,600 --> 01:01:53,200 super concentrated. They're awesome scorers. 1185 01:01:54,240 --> 01:01:57,920 Still seems like a pretty low total fade percentage for a team 1186 01:01:57,920 --> 01:02:00,280 that's, you know, an underdog in round one. 1187 01:02:01,720 --> 01:02:05,360 It does. If we play double, you know, if, 1188 01:02:05,360 --> 01:02:08,000 if you're thinking to play double up on Houston, Cleveland, 1189 01:02:08,000 --> 01:02:11,080 double up on Philly, Tampa Bay, you know that fade's got a It's 1190 01:02:11,080 --> 01:02:15,560 got to come from Miami, yeah. It's not saying. 1191 01:02:15,720 --> 01:02:17,840 It's not saying the Rams players are all going to suck. 1192 01:02:17,840 --> 01:02:21,320 It's saying they lose and one of them isn't one of the top 2 1193 01:02:21,320 --> 01:02:23,040 scores of the losers, right? This. 1194 01:02:23,040 --> 01:02:25,760 We've talked about this in the past years, but like we ended up 1195 01:02:25,760 --> 01:02:28,120 going to DK. Metcalf was our big example last 1196 01:02:28,120 --> 01:02:29,960 year where nobody wanted to play Seahawk because they were very 1197 01:02:29,960 --> 01:02:32,040 likely to lose. I think they have the Niners 1198 01:02:32,160 --> 01:02:36,960 right in in the first game, but Metcalf had the potential to 1199 01:02:37,000 --> 01:02:40,920 outscore all of the other losers basically and he had like a 30 1200 01:02:40,920 --> 01:02:42,760 point game. He was one of the two highest 1201 01:02:42,760 --> 01:02:47,600 scoring skill guys in of the six teams that lose in Wild Card 1202 01:02:47,600 --> 01:02:49,200 weekend. So that's the way to think 1203 01:02:49,200 --> 01:02:50,240 through it. If you're fading this, it's 1204 01:02:50,240 --> 01:02:51,720 like, yeah, it's a great match up with the Lions. 1205 01:02:51,720 --> 01:02:53,640 Yeah, it's hyper concentrated. Yeah, all three of these guys 1206 01:02:53,640 --> 01:02:56,360 are really good, but if it's a little bit spread around between 1207 01:02:56,360 --> 01:03:00,320 the three of them, they it's possible they're not one of the 1208 01:03:00,320 --> 01:03:04,360 top two scoring players of all six teams that lose in opening 1209 01:03:04,360 --> 01:03:06,880 weekend. If like Puka's puka could score 1210 01:03:06,880 --> 01:03:12,000 23, if Mar gets to 10, you know you're talking about a 13 point 1211 01:03:12,000 --> 01:03:14,880 gap. Like that's that's not huge, you 1212 01:03:14,880 --> 01:03:16,280 know, assuming they lose. Right. 1213 01:03:16,280 --> 01:03:17,280 That's the other side of it, yeah. 1214 01:03:17,760 --> 01:03:18,840 You know somebody else? 'S. 1215 01:03:19,960 --> 01:03:21,760 Might not even have to match puka. 1216 01:03:21,760 --> 01:03:22,960 They might not even have to match if they if. 1217 01:03:22,960 --> 01:03:24,720 If they're. If his kicker does really well, 1218 01:03:24,720 --> 01:03:27,480 that's true, yeah. It's it is tough though because 1219 01:03:27,480 --> 01:03:31,720 you get the opportunity with the Rams to play Puka or Cup, which 1220 01:03:31,720 --> 01:03:35,440 is how you would prefer to play the Rams in a loss. 1221 01:03:35,880 --> 01:03:40,840 So you're getting both guys as the not primary chalk on that 1222 01:03:40,840 --> 01:03:43,520 team. So it's you know, be a little 1223 01:03:43,520 --> 01:03:47,240 different if like Kyron was our pivot in the loss scenario or 1224 01:03:47,240 --> 01:03:50,280 it's like well why not just fade him completely because is Kyron 1225 01:03:50,280 --> 01:03:52,160 going to have a huge game and a loss anyway? 1226 01:03:53,120 --> 01:03:56,200 But is could Cooper Cup have an absolute huge game and a loss? 1227 01:03:56,200 --> 01:03:58,000 Of course he could. Same for Puka. 1228 01:03:58,600 --> 01:03:59,920 Yeah. I don't think you do it a lot. 1229 01:03:59,920 --> 01:04:02,720 It's just, I mean 5% total on a team that's. 1230 01:04:03,360 --> 01:04:06,960 I agree with that. Yeah, I mean it is, it's kind of 1231 01:04:06,960 --> 01:04:09,800 wild, like it makes no sense. But we saw this last year with 1232 01:04:09,800 --> 01:04:13,320 the with the Chargers, they were 6% total faded. 1233 01:04:15,280 --> 01:04:17,760 And I think it's some ways like the Rams are kind of more 1234 01:04:17,760 --> 01:04:20,560 appealing, 'cause last year's basically it was like Echolor is 1235 01:04:20,560 --> 01:04:23,680 kind of where it all went to and and we've got a couple really 1236 01:04:23,680 --> 01:04:27,840 interesting pivots here. The Nuts was like a 1% owned 1237 01:04:27,840 --> 01:04:30,160 Cameron Dicker. Last year, yeah. 1238 01:04:30,560 --> 01:04:33,840 Yeah. Like a 1% owned camera Dicker 1239 01:04:33,840 --> 01:04:36,680 and a 1% owned Miami DST was like. 1240 01:04:37,720 --> 01:04:41,200 This is also the result of the weather situations though, 1241 01:04:41,200 --> 01:04:43,880 right? It's just like there's gonna be 1242 01:04:44,280 --> 01:04:48,280 at least, you know, two weather games that two teams are losing 1243 01:04:48,280 --> 01:04:51,600 from that we're expecting kind of lower scoring environments 1244 01:04:51,600 --> 01:04:54,640 already. So if we're always comparing the 1245 01:04:54,640 --> 01:04:58,720 losing score versus the other six losing scores, now we're 1246 01:04:58,720 --> 01:05:02,800 comparing a losing score from the Rams to three other losing 1247 01:05:02,800 --> 01:05:04,280 scores. If we think that the losing 1248 01:05:04,280 --> 01:05:06,920 score from the Rams is very likely to be higher than the 1249 01:05:06,920 --> 01:05:09,280 best score from a losing team in those two weather games, and 1250 01:05:09,400 --> 01:05:12,400 that's where it starts to get a little bit this. 1251 01:05:12,400 --> 01:05:15,360 I think that's why you're getting the concentrated play 1252 01:05:15,800 --> 01:05:19,680 side of the Rams in in addition to the Lions defense just being 1253 01:05:19,680 --> 01:05:23,520 an absolute train wreck. It just it starts to become 1254 01:05:23,520 --> 01:05:24,600 difficult. I think. 1255 01:05:24,920 --> 01:05:28,040 I think the kicker play is more interesting to me than like a 1256 01:05:28,040 --> 01:05:31,440 full fade of of. Yeah, I think so, 'cause you get 1257 01:05:31,440 --> 01:05:33,680 more outs that way. Like. 1258 01:05:33,680 --> 01:05:36,560 You do you think out the defense randomly scores or the kicker 1259 01:05:36,560 --> 01:05:40,120 kicks 4 field goals? Do you think most people when 1260 01:05:40,120 --> 01:05:44,200 they click Kyren, you know, I, we know a lot of people aren't 1261 01:05:44,200 --> 01:05:46,320 thinking through like the soft fade and all that element, but 1262 01:05:46,320 --> 01:05:48,760 do you think they're playing Kyron to win? 1263 01:05:48,760 --> 01:05:52,520 Or they're just saying I don't care 'cause I'm. 1264 01:05:52,520 --> 01:05:55,160 Playing, I don't care 'cause they got a monitor on the other 1265 01:05:55,360 --> 01:05:57,720 side. 'Cause I'm just wondering if are 1266 01:05:57,720 --> 01:06:01,480 you thinking like like, I'm curious, Leonie, from a 1267 01:06:01,480 --> 01:06:03,960 projection standpoint, if you could do a projection for the 1268 01:06:03,960 --> 01:06:09,600 Rams verse the 49ers in the divisional round, like how do 1269 01:06:09,600 --> 01:06:12,760 you think you would have that? Like would Kyron still out 1270 01:06:12,760 --> 01:06:17,760 project the receivers? I mean, we our full postseason 1271 01:06:17,760 --> 01:06:20,480 projections, we have Kyron behind the wide receivers. 1272 01:06:21,960 --> 01:06:25,160 Is that baking in anything specific to the 49ers? 1273 01:06:25,320 --> 01:06:29,640 It's baking. In their likely spread on, you 1274 01:06:29,640 --> 01:06:32,760 know, future games. It's not like hyper specific to 1275 01:06:32,760 --> 01:06:36,480 the the defense that they're facing, but it's kind of a guess 1276 01:06:36,480 --> 01:06:39,400 at what their team total and their spread, you know, would be 1277 01:06:39,520 --> 01:06:42,640 in these games. I'm just like put like in my 1278 01:06:42,640 --> 01:06:44,400 brain. I'm like, if I'm playing the 1279 01:06:44,400 --> 01:06:48,880 Rams to upset and then go to the 49ers, like I I want a wide 1280 01:06:48,880 --> 01:06:51,920 receiver there because the wide receivers can get there in a win 1281 01:06:51,920 --> 01:06:53,080 and will be. Well, that's why. 1282 01:06:53,280 --> 01:06:55,840 Game trip versus the Niners. Kyron's almost the perfect 1283 01:06:55,840 --> 01:06:58,800 running back to play in a loss. And I think that's that's almost 1284 01:06:58,800 --> 01:07:01,840 what people are saying because it gets so much Green Zone work 1285 01:07:01,840 --> 01:07:03,800 and he could score 2 touchdowns in a lot like he could. 1286 01:07:03,840 --> 01:07:05,240 He could score their only two TV's. 1287 01:07:05,240 --> 01:07:08,200 He could, he could be the the only guy who scores for them and 1288 01:07:08,200 --> 01:07:12,840 they lose, you know, 30 to 17. They can all score in any 1289 01:07:12,840 --> 01:07:14,760 environment. I mean, they're so concentrated 1290 01:07:14,760 --> 01:07:18,120 and they use those three guys I, you know, I think win loss. 1291 01:07:18,760 --> 01:07:21,040 For sure, I think. Loss is a little bit better for 1292 01:07:21,040 --> 01:07:24,360 the receivers, but they they can all kind of score in any. 1293 01:07:24,440 --> 01:07:26,200 That's not true for every running back, though. 1294 01:07:26,240 --> 01:07:28,920 Like, not every running back can score in a loss like Kyron. 1295 01:07:28,920 --> 01:07:30,760 I mean, I think you can talk yourself into Kyron in a way you 1296 01:07:30,760 --> 01:07:32,640 can't for other receivers or running backs. 1297 01:07:33,320 --> 01:07:36,640 The flip from Kyron. I'm on Rod A Cup. 1298 01:07:36,640 --> 01:07:39,200 Gibbs, though, is like pretty sick ownership. 1299 01:07:39,360 --> 01:07:41,880 You know, leverage wise, you're definitely gonna see some 1300 01:07:41,880 --> 01:07:45,120 projected points on the Detroit side because, you know, I'm on 1301 01:07:45,120 --> 01:07:46,640 Rod's. You know, I'll project Gibbs by 1302 01:07:46,640 --> 01:07:50,040 a few points, but it's not like an insane amount of points that 1303 01:07:50,040 --> 01:07:51,600 you're giving up. Yeah. 1304 01:07:52,040 --> 01:07:55,120 And again, like the, the reason this is so tough, like it's 1305 01:07:55,120 --> 01:07:58,600 reflected even in the underdog weekly markets. 1306 01:07:58,600 --> 01:08:04,400 You know, Amanra goes 2, Kyron goes 3, Cooper Cup goes 5 and 1307 01:08:04,400 --> 01:08:07,120 Cup goes 7. Like, like they're they're all 1308 01:08:07,120 --> 01:08:10,000 right there. Like everyone is bullish on all 1309 01:08:10,000 --> 01:08:14,040 of these guys and that order is reflected even in in Pat's. 1310 01:08:14,040 --> 01:08:16,760 Ownership Sorry, what's the So this is the like Battle Royale? 1311 01:08:16,840 --> 01:08:20,240 The weekly Yeah, for just the wild card weekends, Monra, 2, 1312 01:08:20,240 --> 01:08:26,040 Kyron 3, Puka, 5, Cooper, 7, Amari and Tyriq are sandwiched 1313 01:08:26,040 --> 01:08:28,160 in between the Rams. Got it. 1314 01:08:31,279 --> 01:08:33,359 One other spot that I think is interesting. 1315 01:08:33,960 --> 01:08:37,920 So I actually lowered you you your last argument of you know, 1316 01:08:37,920 --> 01:08:42,840 the fact that you want the the Rams in that round two. 1317 01:08:43,399 --> 01:08:45,880 I think people will will think through that of you attack the 1318 01:08:46,200 --> 01:08:49,560 you attack the Lions through the air and then I'm going to San 1319 01:08:49,560 --> 01:08:51,479 Francisco. I'd rather have a wide receiver. 1320 01:08:51,760 --> 01:08:55,920 So I kind of, I don't think I've raised Kyron up 1% from where I 1321 01:08:55,920 --> 01:08:57,640 had him at the start of the night, but basically. 1322 01:08:57,640 --> 01:08:59,880 Where I love that, when I can get you to redo all your 1323 01:08:59,880 --> 01:09:10,120 projections for 1% of my takes. So this is this is one of the 1324 01:09:10,120 --> 01:09:12,680 other spots 'cause if Kyron's staying, basically where I have 1325 01:09:12,680 --> 01:09:16,399 him, Pacheco's moving up. Does white come down at all? 1326 01:09:17,520 --> 01:09:21,399 He's one of those other fairly comfy clicks other than, you 1327 01:09:21,399 --> 01:09:23,080 know, CMC being the ultimate comfy click. 1328 01:09:23,080 --> 01:09:26,960 But for run running back 2, White's very much in the mix, 1329 01:09:26,960 --> 01:09:31,000 but Evans just gives you that spike week potential in a good. 1330 01:09:32,000 --> 01:09:34,040 He's the one I was thinking of as the counter to the point I 1331 01:09:34,040 --> 01:09:36,479 was trying to make about Kyron, where people feel comfortable 1332 01:09:36,479 --> 01:09:39,920 with the Rams still scoring and Kyron's still getting goal line 1333 01:09:39,920 --> 01:09:42,439 work and potentially still scoring one to two touchdowns 1334 01:09:42,439 --> 01:09:45,399 even in a loss. I feel like White is the the 1335 01:09:45,399 --> 01:09:47,200 opposite of that. Where I think people think the 1336 01:09:47,200 --> 01:09:51,479 Eagles there's there's risk or fear that the Eagles can just 1337 01:09:51,479 --> 01:09:54,520 win and potentially win big and win with ball control, and 1338 01:09:54,520 --> 01:09:56,320 Tampa's offense just doesn't do anything. 1339 01:09:56,320 --> 01:09:59,200 Like, you're like, they were horrible, even though Philly's 1340 01:09:59,200 --> 01:10:01,280 defense is bad. I don't know. 1341 01:10:01,280 --> 01:10:04,360 I mean, that's just sort of like the sentiment that I get. 1342 01:10:04,360 --> 01:10:05,800 I don't know that that's actually valid. 1343 01:10:06,920 --> 01:10:08,720 Yeah. I was pitching running back, At 1344 01:10:08,720 --> 01:10:10,040 least you know. Yeah. 1345 01:10:10,680 --> 01:10:14,000 I will obviously this is full point PPR, but just to give you 1346 01:10:14,000 --> 01:10:21,680 like Evans is going seven spots ahead of Rashad this week and 1347 01:10:21,760 --> 01:10:26,560 Kyren, Pacheco and Gibbs are all going ahead of him too like and 1348 01:10:26,560 --> 01:10:28,680 obviously full point half point that's big for. 1349 01:10:28,680 --> 01:10:30,880 Gibbs is definitely interesting, yeah. 1350 01:10:30,960 --> 01:10:34,400 But I just like I've been saying it like the the market sentiment 1351 01:10:34,400 --> 01:10:37,680 on Rashad White is never high. Like no one is ever super 1352 01:10:37,680 --> 01:10:42,440 excited to to click him. Yeah, he's AI mean. 1353 01:10:42,480 --> 01:10:45,600 I think him and Evan's honesty like aren't that crazy. 1354 01:10:45,600 --> 01:10:49,760 Different of place. I think Rashad White's a great 1355 01:10:49,760 --> 01:10:52,480 play, but I I just don't think the field is even as excited. 1356 01:10:53,640 --> 01:10:56,360 Yeah, he might be a good running back pivot, you know, to get off 1357 01:10:56,360 --> 01:10:59,680 those other guys. Someone here mentioned Godwin 1358 01:10:59,680 --> 01:11:01,160 too. Godwin, 2% just. 1359 01:11:01,240 --> 01:11:02,920 Godwin. That's yeah, that's actually 1360 01:11:02,920 --> 01:11:03,960 wrong. I need to get that up. 1361 01:11:04,240 --> 01:11:06,160 I brought that. I brought that up earlier, and I 1362 01:11:06,200 --> 01:11:08,880 I was just gonna ask that again. Leonie, You like that too? 1363 01:11:09,960 --> 01:11:13,840 I mean, if he's I, he came on really strong at the end of the 1364 01:11:13,840 --> 01:11:15,280 season. Yeah. 1365 01:11:15,720 --> 01:11:18,840 Levitan tweeted about how since his wife complained on social 1366 01:11:18,840 --> 01:11:20,920 media, you know he's been getting hit with all the 1367 01:11:20,920 --> 01:11:23,720 targets. There you go. 1368 01:11:23,720 --> 01:11:25,440 I didn't know that that analysis. 1369 01:11:25,640 --> 01:11:28,360 By the By the way, I feel like while we're here and we're just 1370 01:11:28,360 --> 01:11:31,200 watching Karain change the projected ownership. 1371 01:11:31,440 --> 01:11:33,680 There's like a. There's like a Steve Kornacki 1372 01:11:33,680 --> 01:11:37,520 bit here where we could be like let's go to Karain live in 1373 01:11:37,520 --> 01:11:40,120 Philadelphia. What are the latest polls saying 1374 01:11:40,120 --> 01:11:43,800 we? Got to get him one of those 1375 01:11:43,800 --> 01:11:50,080 boards. In this speech, we're taking two 1376 01:11:50,080 --> 01:11:52,560 percentage points on Kaimi Fairbairn in Houston. 1377 01:11:52,560 --> 01:11:56,720 What do you seek, dude? We got, we got to fight it in 1378 01:11:56,720 --> 01:11:59,120 the ship chasing budget to get you one of these. 1379 01:11:59,120 --> 01:12:00,320 Boards. You too, man. 1380 01:12:01,360 --> 01:12:03,560 Speak. Speaking of which, shout out to 1381 01:12:03,560 --> 01:12:06,640 the the new YouTube members tonight on screen Right now we 1382 01:12:06,640 --> 01:12:08,960 do have Pat's ownership projections. 1383 01:12:08,960 --> 01:12:12,200 If you guys are legendary upside subscribers, you get access to 1384 01:12:12,200 --> 01:12:13,240 those. If you guys are in the ship 1385 01:12:13,240 --> 01:12:15,680 chasing Discord, it is pinned in that Channel. 1386 01:12:15,800 --> 01:12:18,760 You get access to that Discord by becoming a YouTube member, 1387 01:12:18,760 --> 01:12:21,680 and then you can just sync your Discord account and YouTube 1388 01:12:21,680 --> 01:12:23,040 member. There's instructions on how to 1389 01:12:23,040 --> 01:12:26,400 do that in the FAQ of the Deposit Kingdom Discord, which 1390 01:12:26,400 --> 01:12:28,800 there's a link in the show notes. 1391 01:12:29,920 --> 01:12:31,680 Yeah. So did you just bring Godwin up, 1392 01:12:31,680 --> 01:12:35,560 Pat, or are you doing that now? I brought Godwin up to 6%. 1393 01:12:37,200 --> 01:12:41,120 I took Mike Evans. He was up here at 36%, brought 1394 01:12:41,120 --> 01:12:47,360 him down Now. Now, Mark, he's down at 32%. 1395 01:12:47,920 --> 01:12:51,120 Now what I was thinking about is maybe actually taking him up 1396 01:12:51,120 --> 01:12:56,440 slightly higher to 33%. Now what that would do is it 1397 01:12:56,440 --> 01:13:01,000 would allow us to take Rashad White down to 20% becomes a very 1398 01:13:01,000 --> 01:13:03,200 interesting pivot play at that price. 1399 01:13:03,200 --> 01:13:05,440 Back to you, Pete. Yeah. 1400 01:13:05,480 --> 01:13:07,800 Thank you, Pat. Appreciate that. 1401 01:13:08,040 --> 01:13:11,840 Nice to have our finger on the pulse here with our FFPC 1402 01:13:11,840 --> 01:13:14,760 ownership correspondent Pat Korncki. 1403 01:13:15,520 --> 01:13:18,240 Dude got a lobster roll in him is, and it's just vibing 1404 01:13:18,240 --> 01:13:21,720 tonight. That a kombucha? 1405 01:13:21,720 --> 01:13:23,520 You were drinking too fast. It was, yeah. 1406 01:13:23,520 --> 01:13:26,080 And then they're gonna so. Fucking cliche, san. 1407 01:13:26,880 --> 01:13:29,000 Diego. On full San Diego, man. 1408 01:13:29,480 --> 01:13:33,360 One, one NFL season of the guys like, just full San Diego. 1409 01:13:33,360 --> 01:13:37,240 On air at the end of the season. Just a caricature. 1410 01:13:40,320 --> 01:13:42,600 Next thing you know, we're going to learn this guy as a Tesla or 1411 01:13:42,600 --> 01:13:53,040 something. Oh, let's see here. 1412 01:13:53,760 --> 01:13:57,120 What other games have we not discussed? 1413 01:13:57,440 --> 01:14:00,120 A ton here. I'm trying to think what have 1414 01:14:00,120 --> 01:14:00,400 we? Missed. 1415 01:14:00,400 --> 01:14:02,920 We haven't talked about Miami Green Bay. 1416 01:14:03,280 --> 01:14:05,240 Yes. One of the chats was talking a 1417 01:14:05,240 --> 01:14:10,960 little bit about Green Bay. Yeah, let's, yeah, let's talk 1418 01:14:10,960 --> 01:14:13,800 Green Bay. Pat, what did you have? 1419 01:14:13,800 --> 01:14:15,760 Yeah, pull up. Pull up the Green Bay ownership 1420 01:14:16,000 --> 01:14:18,880 from from what you had it there. Yeah. 1421 01:14:18,880 --> 01:14:21,960 So Green Bay fade came down a little bit for me. 1422 01:14:23,240 --> 01:14:25,320 I mean, they're still pretty high, but I think at one point I 1423 01:14:25,320 --> 01:14:30,440 had them up at 84%. They're down to 77 now, just as 1424 01:14:30,440 --> 01:14:34,000 like that game. There's lots of like you want to 1425 01:14:34,000 --> 01:14:37,120 fade Philly a little bit more. You know, there's like the 1426 01:14:37,120 --> 01:14:38,760 weather concerns. I think people people have 1427 01:14:38,760 --> 01:14:42,240 talked about fading Miami. We talked about how fading 1428 01:14:42,240 --> 01:14:45,360 Baltimore a little more unconventional fades. 1429 01:14:45,840 --> 01:14:48,840 Normally these seven seeds get faded very high. 1430 01:14:48,960 --> 01:14:52,080 The Steelers I have hit 94% total fade so they're definitely 1431 01:14:53,640 --> 01:14:59,960 they're fading that mold but but the the Packers down to 77% gets 1432 01:14:59,960 --> 01:15:03,040 a little more Aaron Jones. I took Jaden Reed down. 1433 01:15:03,040 --> 01:15:06,360 I think with Christian Watson looking like he'll play, then 1434 01:15:06,760 --> 01:15:08,520 that makes him a little bit shakier. 1435 01:15:08,520 --> 01:15:11,160 And Jones is just the guy I've heard everyone talk about. 1436 01:15:11,720 --> 01:15:14,000 You know, he's kind of the the guy that we're you're actually a 1437 01:15:14,000 --> 01:15:17,720 little bit excited about in part because he gives you that 1438 01:15:17,720 --> 01:15:22,640 running back to pivot that truly will be contrarian and then lets 1439 01:15:22,640 --> 01:15:26,280 you do other things with your line up you you don't feel as 1440 01:15:26,280 --> 01:15:28,400 constrained like you. You can definitely go to Puka 1441 01:15:28,400 --> 01:15:30,920 and cup in those line UPS. You don't need Kyron at all. 1442 01:15:31,400 --> 01:15:35,840 And just I just freaking love the Jones play because of what 1443 01:15:35,840 --> 01:15:39,040 James Cook did to Dallas a couple weeks ago, because of 1444 01:15:39,040 --> 01:15:41,720 what Jones has done in Texas when he's gone back. 1445 01:15:41,720 --> 01:15:43,920 He played at U Tip. There's all these little 1446 01:15:43,920 --> 01:15:45,560 narratives that are tied in there. 1447 01:15:45,560 --> 01:15:46,880 And then you don't have to pick the receiver. 1448 01:15:46,880 --> 01:15:48,040 You just you just playing in gents. 1449 01:15:49,080 --> 01:15:52,920 Love it. I mean, 12% is low for the 1450 01:15:52,920 --> 01:15:54,880 running back situation on this slate. 1451 01:15:54,880 --> 01:15:59,240 And most likely, no AJ Dillon. That's the other thing. 1452 01:15:59,240 --> 01:16:02,040 No AJ Dillon. So I I wonder if maybe it's more 1453 01:16:02,040 --> 01:16:05,920 like 15, seven or something between Jones and Reid. 1454 01:16:05,920 --> 01:16:07,040 What do you guys think about that? 1455 01:16:07,400 --> 01:16:09,480 I could see that. I still think Jones would be a 1456 01:16:09,480 --> 01:16:14,000 good play, but I I could definitely see how many people 1457 01:16:14,000 --> 01:16:15,920 play running back in flex though, like, I don't think your 1458 01:16:15,920 --> 01:16:17,520 white stuff's off. I don't really think your 1459 01:16:17,520 --> 01:16:21,600 Pacheco Carmen's off. Like we we could still average 3 1460 01:16:21,600 --> 01:16:23,280 running backs per team. I don't think would be 1461 01:16:23,280 --> 01:16:26,360 absolutely shocking. It wouldn't be. 1462 01:16:26,360 --> 01:16:29,440 I I think the general way people think it through though, is 1463 01:16:29,720 --> 01:16:33,800 Dallas Smash. And even if I want to play it as 1464 01:16:33,800 --> 01:16:37,080 like a shootout, then I'd rather play Jayden Reid, you know, 1465 01:16:37,080 --> 01:16:40,000 because then Jayden Reid can get there in victories, he can get 1466 01:16:40,000 --> 01:16:42,960 there in losses. And when you look at, you know, 1467 01:16:42,960 --> 01:16:46,760 the the Aaron Jones box score, he did have the five receptions. 1468 01:16:46,760 --> 01:16:51,160 Was it last week? But previous to that, like he 1469 01:16:51,160 --> 01:16:54,040 hadn't been getting a ton of work in the passing game and 1470 01:16:54,040 --> 01:16:57,000 it's he's just been like getting so many carries right now. 1471 01:16:57,160 --> 01:16:59,440 I just wonder if people get spooked like Dallas is up two 1472 01:16:59,440 --> 01:17:00,640 touchdowns. How? 1473 01:17:00,800 --> 01:17:07,160 How fed is Aaron Jones getting? 20 carries in 30 straight games. 1474 01:17:07,160 --> 01:17:08,680 It's kind of sick, but yeah, those are all. 1475 01:17:08,920 --> 01:17:11,240 I I like Aaron Jones. I'm just saying like how I'm I'm 1476 01:17:11,240 --> 01:17:14,320 putting myself in perspective of how people think about it. 1477 01:17:14,840 --> 01:17:18,360 I brought Jones down 2% from since Pete started talking. 1478 01:17:18,640 --> 01:17:22,840 I love that it really is. Like a lot of the coal mining 1479 01:17:23,000 --> 01:17:24,920 squares I. Love it's a rounds of horn at 1480 01:17:24,920 --> 01:17:26,840 this point. And Pete talked to me to see 1481 01:17:26,960 --> 01:17:31,080 John straight. It reads a great play, too. 1482 01:17:31,080 --> 01:17:33,560 I think Pete, you're the one who said on the on the first show 1483 01:17:33,560 --> 01:17:36,120 that I was on this week. So I guess Wednesday that this 1484 01:17:36,120 --> 01:17:39,120 is a game that Green Bay's gonna be faded way too high. 1485 01:17:39,120 --> 01:17:41,360 I mean, the 64 percent is the thing to highlight. 1486 01:17:41,360 --> 01:17:45,360 Like that's too high for a Dome game with a high total. 1487 01:17:45,360 --> 01:17:47,640 We're expecting points like Green Bay's offense can be 1488 01:17:47,640 --> 01:17:49,600 efficient. This feels like a one of those 1489 01:17:49,600 --> 01:17:51,080 really great, like the Metcalf from last year. 1490 01:17:51,080 --> 01:17:53,120 We were talking about one of those really great opportunities 1491 01:17:53,560 --> 01:17:56,640 to potentially get one of the high skill position scores in a 1492 01:17:56,640 --> 01:17:59,720 loss. It's scary, right? 1493 01:17:59,720 --> 01:18:03,400 Because you're we've talked endlessly about how you want 1494 01:18:03,440 --> 01:18:06,960 your two hard fades, like need to be from teams that lose and 1495 01:18:06,960 --> 01:18:09,160 then your two soft fades, you really want those to be from 1496 01:18:09,160 --> 01:18:11,600 teams that lose. And then you take the Packers 1497 01:18:12,080 --> 01:18:15,120 off the board because you're probably in most of these line 1498 01:18:15,120 --> 01:18:17,000 UPS that you play Aaron Jones or Jaden Reed. 1499 01:18:17,280 --> 01:18:18,880 You're probably also playing CD Lamb. 1500 01:18:18,880 --> 01:18:21,800 You're not just betting on the on the Packers to win the game, 1501 01:18:21,800 --> 01:18:23,080 you're just betting on to be a shootout. 1502 01:18:23,480 --> 01:18:27,080 So now that means I need to go predict another game correctly 1503 01:18:27,320 --> 01:18:30,920 which is tough, you know? And that's how I think people 1504 01:18:30,920 --> 01:18:33,880 will ultimately probably just pick the Packers to lose because 1505 01:18:33,880 --> 01:18:35,520 it's it makes their lives so much easier. 1506 01:18:35,520 --> 01:18:39,560 But I do agree that playing this game is a shootout, and then 1507 01:18:40,160 --> 01:18:43,000 doing the difficult work of predicting the bracket is gonna 1508 01:18:43,000 --> 01:18:45,040 give you an edge. It'll give you a big edge if you 1509 01:18:45,040 --> 01:18:47,320 get it right. Yeah, I could see that a lot of 1510 01:18:47,320 --> 01:18:49,640 people put Aaron Jones in and then as they fill out the rest 1511 01:18:49,640 --> 01:18:51,240 of their line up, they circle back and. 1512 01:18:53,320 --> 01:18:56,040 They take out Aaron Jones. This is gonna be an Aaron Jones 1513 01:18:56,040 --> 01:18:58,440 lineup, is the first thing you say and by the end you go, yeah, 1514 01:18:58,440 --> 01:19:00,520 it's the worst love you got Aaron Jones. 1515 01:19:01,640 --> 01:19:03,320 Miami for Jones? I don't know. 1516 01:19:03,440 --> 01:19:06,040 I don't know one fact. Aaron Jones has played the 1517 01:19:06,040 --> 01:19:07,520 Cowboys three times in his career. 1518 01:19:07,520 --> 01:19:10,240 He's rushed for 100 yards and at least one TD in all three. 1519 01:19:10,240 --> 01:19:13,400 Six total touchdowns. At least 130 total yards in 1520 01:19:13,400 --> 01:19:15,680 every one of those games. Just saying. 1521 01:19:15,960 --> 01:19:19,280 Guy like CSU rattling off college football by IS. 1522 01:19:19,560 --> 01:19:20,840 It. Too even the lead. 1523 01:19:20,920 --> 01:19:23,840 For like 8 years like he didn't have these different humans 1524 01:19:23,840 --> 01:19:24,920 that. He was one of them, was his 1525 01:19:25,120 --> 01:19:27,560 first 100 yard game of his career in his rookie season, 1526 01:19:28,320 --> 01:19:32,520 which is when it's a monster. I was just standing. 1527 01:19:32,520 --> 01:19:35,280 I was like, I don't know what's happening. 1528 01:19:37,520 --> 01:19:39,600 Like 8 college games, right? A lot. 1529 01:19:39,920 --> 01:19:42,960 Jennings been grinding the Silva tape where you just listed off 1530 01:19:42,960 --> 01:19:46,640 college stats and awards and it passes this analysis. 1531 01:19:47,160 --> 01:19:49,760 I mean, we can go to Aaron Jones, Utah Stats. 1532 01:19:49,760 --> 01:19:52,520 I can keep this Dallas U Texas theme going. 1533 01:19:53,160 --> 01:19:55,360 Dude, in high school you ran for 360. 1534 01:19:55,560 --> 01:19:56,920 In high. School. 1535 01:19:57,600 --> 01:20:01,040 It's high school Texas Stats. I love it. 1536 01:20:02,200 --> 01:20:04,800 Yeah, I. Because if you think about right 1537 01:20:04,920 --> 01:20:08,960 the Pat, you have the biggest full fades right as Green Bay 1538 01:20:08,960 --> 01:20:11,080 and Steelers who are the biggest dogs. 1539 01:20:11,080 --> 01:20:14,880 Yeah of the weekend. And so like even just not full 1540 01:20:14,880 --> 01:20:16,720 fading those. Like if you do the soft fade, 1541 01:20:16,960 --> 01:20:21,160 Steelers D you do, you could do a soft fade with Andres who you 1542 01:20:21,160 --> 01:20:25,440 have here or on, or Aaron Jones or Reed. 1543 01:20:25,440 --> 01:20:28,280 Like you're already getting very unique because the field is 1544 01:20:28,280 --> 01:20:30,400 going to want to full fade those guys at a pretty big clip. 1545 01:20:31,640 --> 01:20:35,240 Yeah, yeah, I've got both these as hugely faded Pittsburgh, even 1546 01:20:35,240 --> 01:20:38,760 more so. I mean, 82% fade, 10% defense, 1547 01:20:38,880 --> 01:20:44,480 3% Pickens, 2% Boswell, 1% Harris, 1% Warren, 1% Johnson. 1548 01:20:44,480 --> 01:20:49,920 I'd probably take the over on my fade projection, you know, 1549 01:20:49,920 --> 01:20:51,160 'cause it's like, are people really? 1550 01:20:51,160 --> 01:20:54,440 We're really gonna get a full percent on Jalen. 1551 01:20:54,440 --> 01:20:58,680 Warren Yeah. The weather's gonna bring More 1552 01:20:58,680 --> 01:21:02,720 People to Pittsburgh D. Pittsburgh's D Maybe Yeah. 1553 01:21:02,840 --> 01:21:05,800 Yeah, maybe. Or position players, I mean the 1554 01:21:05,920 --> 01:21:09,320 the total, the total fade in soft fade is gonna be really 1555 01:21:09,320 --> 01:21:11,600 high. I love playing contrarian in 1556 01:21:11,600 --> 01:21:15,040 this contest and I'm like, I don't know if we're gonna play. 1557 01:21:15,040 --> 01:21:19,400 I don't know about Pittsburgh. Yeah, honestly, the one I would 1558 01:21:19,400 --> 01:21:23,720 play you, you guys probably know like it would be Naji and just a 1559 01:21:23,720 --> 01:21:28,080 game where the weather's bad and they run 35 times. 1560 01:21:28,400 --> 01:21:29,280 We we have to. Have it? 1561 01:21:29,280 --> 01:21:32,200 Couldn't you just say Pickens? Like, why can't you say? 1562 01:21:32,600 --> 01:21:34,800 No. Gun also brought up Naji, and 1563 01:21:34,800 --> 01:21:37,440 whenever Sean and Leone both bring up, something usually 1564 01:21:37,440 --> 01:21:38,680 hits. Pissed me off. 1565 01:21:40,400 --> 01:21:42,920 I mean, if you were to play them, I think do Naji. 1566 01:21:43,080 --> 01:21:45,320 Snow Games. We got to do 1 Naji. 1567 01:21:45,480 --> 01:21:47,880 Line give him 25 carries. Tomlin is. 1568 01:21:48,560 --> 01:21:51,600 We got to do 1 Naji. Line 25 Naji carries right now. 1569 01:21:52,160 --> 01:21:53,480 I'm fine full fade in Pittsburgh. 1570 01:21:53,480 --> 01:21:56,520 I'm just saying like if I were. And he's obviously the way you 1571 01:21:56,640 --> 01:21:59,640 did the excitement with which you just said Naji Snow game. 1572 01:22:01,640 --> 01:22:03,400 I don't even think I said those 3 words in that. 1573 01:22:03,400 --> 01:22:04,360 Order. No, no, Pete. 1574 01:22:08,240 --> 01:22:09,640 Yeah, he just went. I mean. 1575 01:22:10,560 --> 01:22:13,160 Do you guys, do we just do an all running back team for the 1576 01:22:13,160 --> 01:22:16,960 bit with Naji and like Chechno and all these fucking guys? 1577 01:22:18,040 --> 01:22:21,640 Aaron Jones, What? Let's I want to pull up this 1578 01:22:21,640 --> 01:22:24,240 question because I know some people are new to the contest. 1579 01:22:24,240 --> 01:22:27,320 Will one of you guys explain? So gamble Stein asking here is 1580 01:22:27,320 --> 01:22:29,720 there merit to fading the entire Steelers game? 1581 01:22:29,760 --> 01:22:32,680 Do one of you guys want to explain why you shouldn't be 1582 01:22:32,880 --> 01:22:36,080 double full fading 2 teams in the same game? 1583 01:22:36,360 --> 01:22:38,200 I'm going to grab. Beer. 1584 01:22:38,200 --> 01:22:39,880 All right. Because one of them is going to 1585 01:22:39,880 --> 01:22:45,200 win and you're going to get two games out of one team in that 1586 01:22:45,200 --> 01:22:49,440 situation. And very likely, even if I see 1587 01:22:49,440 --> 01:22:51,680 your point about Allen's upside side to the four potential 1588 01:22:51,680 --> 01:22:53,600 rounds, you think that the skilled players are not going to 1589 01:22:53,600 --> 01:22:56,400 do a lot other than Allen. So you're basically only getting 1590 01:22:56,400 --> 01:23:00,840 the other Buffalo game. It is logical, like it, I mean, 1591 01:23:01,160 --> 01:23:05,120 or like it's possible that like it could be that bad of a first 1592 01:23:05,120 --> 01:23:08,200 round game and like Allen runs for a couple touchdowns. 1593 01:23:08,600 --> 01:23:11,160 I just, I mean, I think it's so thin. 1594 01:23:11,160 --> 01:23:13,080 You need a really specific thing to hit. 1595 01:23:13,720 --> 01:23:17,560 Diggs and Cook are still gonna score like 5 to 10 points even 1596 01:23:17,560 --> 01:23:20,480 if it's bad and then one of them. 1597 01:23:21,040 --> 01:23:23,480 Play another game, yeah. One of them plays another. 1598 01:23:23,480 --> 01:23:26,720 So it's less about Ailon and more about like Diggs and Cooks, 1599 01:23:27,440 --> 01:23:29,560 possibly even Kincaid. It's possible. 1600 01:23:29,560 --> 01:23:31,440 I mean, we're talking about playing Baltimore DSD, being 1601 01:23:31,440 --> 01:23:35,120 live in two like, so it's possible you. 1602 01:23:35,240 --> 01:23:39,320 You basically need something like for that to work right. 1603 01:23:39,320 --> 01:23:41,840 The other teams that are full faded, let's say the Packers, 1604 01:23:41,840 --> 01:23:46,440 you would basically need like Jayden Reid to score like 30 1605 01:23:46,440 --> 01:23:50,240 points you know in a loss right? Like something like that, where 1606 01:23:50,240 --> 01:23:53,800 one of the full faded guys goes so nuke that even one of the 1607 01:23:53,800 --> 01:23:57,160 advancing teams. His players don't match him in 1608 01:23:57,160 --> 01:23:58,800 two games. Like that's the new you're. 1609 01:23:58,800 --> 01:24:01,440 Trying to spread and it's and even if you don't think it's two 1610 01:24:01,440 --> 01:24:04,120 full games, to Leone's point they're going to score at least 1611 01:24:04,120 --> 01:24:07,640 5 to 10 points and that's a pretty big boost to then also 1612 01:24:07,680 --> 01:24:10,800 another full game, right? Like if they have 15 now they're 1613 01:24:10,800 --> 01:24:12,960 at 20 to 25, right? Like it it'd be. 1614 01:24:13,080 --> 01:24:14,640 And that's a strong tour in the end. 1615 01:24:14,760 --> 01:24:18,680 Like even if it's one of the games is bad, two games is is a 1616 01:24:18,680 --> 01:24:21,960 lot more than one game is the way that it kind of adds up, I 1617 01:24:21,960 --> 01:24:24,720 mean. Definitely need one of the DSTS 1618 01:24:24,720 --> 01:24:27,080 and just hope that that DST. Just goes nuts. 1619 01:24:27,080 --> 01:24:28,760 I think that's your that's your angle. 1620 01:24:28,760 --> 01:24:30,760 If you want to. If you want a full fade one team 1621 01:24:30,760 --> 01:24:34,800 and play the DST from the other, I think that's a great or 1622 01:24:34,800 --> 01:24:37,680 completely logical play. But the full fade you don't you 1623 01:24:37,680 --> 01:24:42,800 don't want to do from that game. Any other spots you guys want to 1624 01:24:42,800 --> 01:24:44,520 talk before we build a line up here? 1625 01:24:46,400 --> 01:24:49,720 There's one guy I feel like I have to mention, just 'cause I I 1626 01:24:49,720 --> 01:24:51,000 like him a lot and we didn't talk about. 1627 01:24:51,000 --> 01:24:54,200 But like Devin Singletary for Houston looks like a good 1628 01:24:54,200 --> 01:24:57,400 running back pivot, you know? I don't know if something to go 1629 01:24:57,400 --> 01:25:00,160 ham on, but his ownership looks pretty low. 1630 01:25:00,360 --> 01:25:01,920 Damien Pierce barely touched the ball. 1631 01:25:01,920 --> 01:25:04,840 I don't even know if he did touch the ball in in Week 18. 1632 01:25:05,880 --> 01:25:08,000 Are we gonna play just all running backs? 1633 01:25:08,440 --> 01:25:11,000 Now. We're gonna want to speak. 1634 01:25:11,160 --> 01:25:13,960 Through Fades of the Chalk Running backs Ben. 1635 01:25:14,400 --> 01:25:18,080 OK. You will will you talk about the 1636 01:25:18,080 --> 01:25:21,440 Singletary projection a little bit 'cause you guys are way 1637 01:25:21,440 --> 01:25:24,280 ahead of market, Like even in the BR streets like Singletary's 1638 01:25:24,280 --> 01:25:26,600 barely getting drafted. Montgomery goes ahead of him. 1639 01:25:26,880 --> 01:25:29,400 Naji goes ahead of him. Cook, Pollard, all these guys go 1640 01:25:29,400 --> 01:25:31,320 ahead of him. What? 1641 01:25:31,320 --> 01:25:33,760 What's fueling the the Singletary love? 1642 01:25:34,560 --> 01:25:37,520 Yeah, it's a couple of things. First of all, he's been really 1643 01:25:37,520 --> 01:25:39,560 good. Like, he's been super solid. 1644 01:25:40,840 --> 01:25:43,040 And just the way Cleveland plays defense, I mean, the defense is 1645 01:25:43,040 --> 01:25:44,960 great overall. Sometimes they're sort of 1646 01:25:45,600 --> 01:25:47,280 convincing you to run when you shouldn't. 1647 01:25:47,280 --> 01:25:49,560 And like, it ends up being like a decent yards per carry thing 1648 01:25:49,560 --> 01:25:52,440 where they're not like totally shutting down the run game of 1649 01:25:52,440 --> 01:25:54,120 the opposing team. Who's he? 1650 01:25:54,200 --> 01:25:59,200 Trapped to buy again. Remember when we had we faded 1651 01:25:59,200 --> 01:26:01,360 him that year that he went on the run and then he had like a 1652 01:26:01,360 --> 01:26:05,240 really good one, huh? And. 1653 01:26:05,920 --> 01:26:07,360 Didn't you really want us to play him as well? 1654 01:26:07,600 --> 01:26:09,360 I wanted us to not play him at all. 1655 01:26:09,800 --> 01:26:11,040 Oh, oh. Yeah. 1656 01:26:11,840 --> 01:26:16,200 Isn't it crazy how every year his like the arc of his season 1657 01:26:16,200 --> 01:26:19,240 is the same trajectory where the team's like, we like Singletary 1658 01:26:19,240 --> 01:26:21,440 and then it's like, we don't and then it's like, fuck, we got to 1659 01:26:21,440 --> 01:26:26,440 go back to Singletary? He played 88% of the snaps in 1660 01:26:26,440 --> 01:26:30,000 the Week 18 Must Win game. Damien Pierce did not log an 1661 01:26:30,000 --> 01:26:34,000 offensive snap, so you just give a running back all the snaps. 1662 01:26:34,360 --> 01:26:38,600 And the other thing about this game, it's two point, It's a two 1663 01:26:38,600 --> 01:26:43,280 point spread, right? Like people are really high in 1664 01:26:43,280 --> 01:26:45,200 Cleveland, but it's it's a two point spread. 1665 01:26:45,400 --> 01:26:47,800 So it's hard to just be like, oh, they're going to get 1666 01:26:47,800 --> 01:26:50,080 crushed, like game script. Yeah, it could go bad and a 1667 01:26:50,080 --> 01:26:54,120 loss, but you know, if they win, you get him to two games and 1668 01:26:54,120 --> 01:26:55,840 he's pure workhorse running back. 1669 01:26:56,280 --> 01:26:59,920 That's pretty, pretty good. I actually love this play 1670 01:27:00,320 --> 01:27:02,800 because they'll probably try to attack through Singletary. 1671 01:27:02,920 --> 01:27:05,480 Like the They've been a pretty conservative offense, actually, 1672 01:27:05,960 --> 01:27:07,400 in a lot of their games this season. 1673 01:27:08,320 --> 01:27:12,680 Cleveland's a run funnel. I mean, it's a little tough 1674 01:27:12,680 --> 01:27:16,280 because the Browns have been so aggressive and Texans are pretty 1675 01:27:16,280 --> 01:27:19,280 bad against the past. But you know. 1676 01:27:20,080 --> 01:27:22,880 I like the Singletary stuff. I think when you think it 1677 01:27:22,880 --> 01:27:24,720 through, it's a little tough, right? 1678 01:27:24,720 --> 01:27:28,160 Because we know the Texans, they do want to run like they 1679 01:27:28,160 --> 01:27:30,000 absolutely want to run when they can. 1680 01:27:30,280 --> 01:27:32,600 But that's also a little game script dependent. 1681 01:27:33,640 --> 01:27:35,840 They'll they'll let Stroud throw a negative game script. 1682 01:27:35,840 --> 01:27:40,120 So this the Devon Singletary and a loss is actually like a little 1683 01:27:40,120 --> 01:27:41,520 harder. I mean, you got to run really 1684 01:27:41,520 --> 01:27:43,560 hot on touchdowns. It's like the Cam Acres play 1685 01:27:43,560 --> 01:27:48,440 probably from a couple years ago, whereas if they win and 1686 01:27:48,440 --> 01:27:51,240 then you're Singletary on the road in Baltimore, it starts not 1687 01:27:51,240 --> 01:27:56,960 to feel that great that that's the kind of the the tough needle 1688 01:27:56,960 --> 01:28:00,080 you're threading there, I think. But you could see Nico like, 1689 01:28:00,360 --> 01:28:04,200 just tanking in that game. So, you know, you get a You get 1690 01:28:04,200 --> 01:28:07,880 a touchdown from Singletary against Baltimore in round two, 1691 01:28:07,880 --> 01:28:08,920 You might be feeling pretty good. 1692 01:28:09,440 --> 01:28:14,880 You've also got 35% chance Miami wins and you're not playing 1693 01:28:14,880 --> 01:28:19,840 Baltimore round two. True, which you'd. 1694 01:28:19,840 --> 01:28:22,320 Prefer. But you know, you know it's it's 1695 01:28:22,320 --> 01:28:23,720 less likely but it's on the table. 1696 01:28:23,840 --> 01:28:25,920 I just think like sometimes these workhorse backs, like they 1697 01:28:25,920 --> 01:28:28,960 just get there and he's like projected for like at least for 1698 01:28:28,960 --> 01:28:31,760 right now passing for nothing probably would want him in A2 1699 01:28:31,760 --> 01:28:34,240 running back line up and then you take the Nico thing a little 1700 01:28:34,240 --> 01:28:41,280 bit off the table. Yeah, but yeah. 1701 01:28:41,960 --> 01:28:44,040 All right. Let's build a line up. 1702 01:28:44,720 --> 01:28:48,280 I just started building one. I don't it's going to work. 1703 01:28:48,280 --> 01:28:50,840 I have James Cook at tight end and Kyron Williams at wide 1704 01:28:50,840 --> 01:28:54,280 receiver. It's got 8 running backs on it. 1705 01:28:54,320 --> 01:28:57,640 It looks pretty solid, all the plays we've been talking about 1706 01:28:57,640 --> 01:29:01,400 all night. You see you built an 8 running 1707 01:29:01,400 --> 01:29:03,880 back line up. Yeah, it's not actually going to 1708 01:29:03,880 --> 01:29:06,760 work. There's I was trying to figure 1709 01:29:06,760 --> 01:29:09,640 out how many running backs we've talked about McCaffrey, Pacheco, 1710 01:29:09,920 --> 01:29:13,720 Kyron, James Cook, Singletary Gibbs, Aaron Jones, Rashad 1711 01:29:13,720 --> 01:29:15,440 White. And then I left CD Lamb. 1712 01:29:15,440 --> 01:29:16,640 And then we're not playing Tony, Paula. 1713 01:29:17,320 --> 01:29:19,320 Yeah, I mean you. You can't. 1714 01:29:19,480 --> 01:29:21,600 You can't play. You can play you. 1715 01:29:21,600 --> 01:29:24,080 Can play a lot, right guys? Yeah, you go stick. 1716 01:29:24,800 --> 01:29:27,360 You know what it It sucks that this is the state of fantasy 1717 01:29:27,360 --> 01:29:29,400 football, because eight years ago this would have been the 1718 01:29:29,400 --> 01:29:32,320 boomer off, though, And we are so far from this. 1719 01:29:34,920 --> 01:29:37,040 I didn't even have a Miami in there. 1720 01:29:37,040 --> 01:29:39,440 You got 8 chain, 8 chain in there. 1721 01:29:40,000 --> 01:29:44,760 See, to me, like the 8 chant in a loss thing, yeah is a really 1722 01:29:44,760 --> 01:29:46,880 nice sell, right? Because the Chiefs pass defense 1723 01:29:46,880 --> 01:29:49,640 is much better than the run defense teams elect to run on 1724 01:29:49,640 --> 01:29:52,680 him. And if you got most or any bit 1725 01:29:52,680 --> 01:29:55,280 banged up, 8 Chan is so explosive. 1726 01:29:55,280 --> 01:29:58,760 On a per touch basis like the 8 Chan and a loss stuff is is 1727 01:29:58,760 --> 01:30:01,320 pretty nice. And then Pacheco and a win, so 1728 01:30:01,320 --> 01:30:03,680 you can actually play running backs on both sides of that 1729 01:30:03,680 --> 01:30:04,960 game. It's perfect. 1730 01:30:05,680 --> 01:30:08,760 I don't think anyone's going to play Pacheco and HN in the in 1731 01:30:08,760 --> 01:30:09,640 the. I don't either. 1732 01:30:09,640 --> 01:30:11,440 That's a good point. Nobody will do that. 1733 01:30:12,280 --> 01:30:14,040 But it it, it actually makes sense. 1734 01:30:14,840 --> 01:30:16,680 Yeah. But but you're watching this 1735 01:30:16,960 --> 01:30:19,720 show it's called the running. Back lineup unless you're 1736 01:30:19,800 --> 01:30:22,240 baiting CNC. Yeah, probably. 1737 01:30:22,240 --> 01:30:24,960 It's probably a three running back, which is a weird way to do 1738 01:30:25,000 --> 01:30:29,480 a three running back lineup. Yeah, Dink, do you want to kick 1739 01:30:29,480 --> 01:30:30,880 us off? What what was your claim to 1740 01:30:30,880 --> 01:30:32,280 fame? Was it was it three or four 1741 01:30:32,280 --> 01:30:34,160 years ago? It was either winning the Millie 1742 01:30:34,160 --> 01:30:37,000 or putting Gronk in one of our. No, it was definitely Gronk. 1743 01:30:37,000 --> 01:30:39,320 God, the Millie was like decades ago. 1744 01:30:39,440 --> 01:30:41,960 Nobody remembers that. It was definitely Gronk. 1745 01:30:41,960 --> 01:30:44,320 It was on a Monday night too. They don't even do it like that. 1746 01:30:44,440 --> 01:30:47,320 Yeah, I mean, good luck. Good God, yeah, with an Eli 1747 01:30:47,320 --> 01:30:51,560 Manning stack of all things. Yeah. 1748 01:30:51,560 --> 01:30:55,280 So I don't have an, I guess my spiciest steak that we've put on 1749 01:30:55,280 --> 01:30:58,880 the show is is Baltimore D So it's Baltimore D. 1750 01:30:59,480 --> 01:31:01,920 Let's do it. We got one of those boomers who 1751 01:31:01,920 --> 01:31:03,520 thinks Lamar's a running back and can't. 1752 01:31:03,520 --> 01:31:07,880 Play on here. Well that was going to be the 1753 01:31:07,880 --> 01:31:10,680 other joke, right is that if if we want to do Beds 8 running 1754 01:31:10,680 --> 01:31:12,400 back roster, we just put in Lamar. 1755 01:31:13,720 --> 01:31:17,960 You got to pick which joke you're going to commit to, all 1756 01:31:17,960 --> 01:31:19,800 right, Leone? We're going to. 1757 01:31:19,800 --> 01:31:21,160 Go slightly out of order. For you. 1758 01:31:21,240 --> 01:31:23,720 So I can we we can go in order of the boxes. 1759 01:31:23,920 --> 01:31:25,840 No. Well, what if I told you that I 1760 01:31:25,840 --> 01:31:28,720 can change the boxes to make whatever order I want? 1761 01:31:28,960 --> 01:31:30,200 Oh no. Wow. 1762 01:31:32,200 --> 01:31:35,320 I really lost it all there. All right. 1763 01:31:36,400 --> 01:31:39,160 Anyone else want to complain about the position on fucking 1764 01:31:39,160 --> 01:31:40,240 Hollywood? Squares. 1765 01:31:40,240 --> 01:31:42,480 You had it ready too, you said ready. 1766 01:31:42,480 --> 01:31:44,840 Just in case I complain. All right. 1767 01:31:44,920 --> 01:31:48,680 I'm oh man, I I I mean go CMC. I want to see what you guys do. 1768 01:31:48,680 --> 01:31:51,000 I'll just go super boring CMC off the start. 1769 01:31:51,920 --> 01:31:58,320 Is that your flag plant? Dude, I just think he's a great 1770 01:31:58,320 --> 01:31:59,320 player in this. Contest No. 1771 01:31:59,320 --> 01:32:01,880 I've I've been the one picking chalk in all of our on 1772 01:32:01,880 --> 01:32:06,400 streamline up builds this week. So we we talked two things on 1773 01:32:06,400 --> 01:32:08,960 the stream. We talked if you're playing 1774 01:32:09,160 --> 01:32:13,600 Baltimore D, then you play all paths so that you have guys 1775 01:32:13,600 --> 01:32:16,200 live. And we also talked contrarian 1776 01:32:16,200 --> 01:32:17,960 Texans pivot. Last night it was Dalton 1777 01:32:17,960 --> 01:32:20,160 Schultz. This week's Devon Singletary. 1778 01:32:21,320 --> 01:32:26,040 All right. Gretch. 1779 01:32:30,320 --> 01:32:34,920 I'm going to take Josh Allen. Because there's no other options 1780 01:32:34,960 --> 01:32:36,000 for quarter, yeah. I was. 1781 01:32:36,320 --> 01:32:38,840 I was trying to keep it open like I was like Allen or Hertz 1782 01:32:38,840 --> 01:32:41,600 could have gotten spicy, but I think Allen makes more sense to 1783 01:32:41,600 --> 01:32:44,240 just directly correlate it. Yeah, yeah. 1784 01:32:44,480 --> 01:32:50,560 That's interesting. I I'm gonna try to send this 1785 01:32:50,560 --> 01:32:55,840 down a pretty wild path. I am going to work under the 1786 01:32:55,840 --> 01:32:57,840 assumption A.J. Brown isn't playing and I'm 1787 01:32:57,840 --> 01:33:00,640 gonna put Dallas Goddard in our tight end slot. 1788 01:33:01,560 --> 01:33:05,200 I love it. Are we? 1789 01:33:07,560 --> 01:33:09,400 Are we Are we sneaking or are we? 1790 01:33:10,640 --> 01:33:12,440 No. OK, no snake. 1791 01:33:13,560 --> 01:33:15,200 It's a third round reversal though, so. 1792 01:33:15,200 --> 01:33:21,720 Just, I'll go, I'll go CD, then I'll I'll go Leonie style and 1793 01:33:21,720 --> 01:33:32,560 punt to the more spicy options. Cooper Cop. 1794 01:33:37,720 --> 01:33:40,560 Did we say Goddard is more of one you playing a loss or was 1795 01:33:40,560 --> 01:33:42,960 that not necessary? I think I screwed that up. 1796 01:33:43,640 --> 01:33:45,800 Why? Well, Pat was kind of teeing us 1797 01:33:45,800 --> 01:33:50,200 up to play like all pads to the the Baltimore upset. 1798 01:33:50,200 --> 01:33:51,600 We just, we just took them off the. 1799 01:33:51,720 --> 01:33:53,720 We just took that off the table with our last two picks. 1800 01:33:55,160 --> 01:33:55,600 I think. Did we? 1801 01:33:55,600 --> 01:33:56,520 Why? Why? 1802 01:33:56,520 --> 01:33:58,800 He was talking about it on the AFC side, I guess. 1803 01:33:58,920 --> 01:34:00,960 I guess if you're fading, Tampa Bay, I guess you have. 1804 01:34:01,280 --> 01:34:04,400 You have to fade Tampa Bay. I guess you could still get 1805 01:34:04,400 --> 01:34:07,480 there. And fade and fade Detroit too, 1806 01:34:08,760 --> 01:34:10,520 yeah. We I don't know if we can fully 1807 01:34:10,520 --> 01:34:13,000 get there unless we fade Kansas City, but we could. 1808 01:34:14,320 --> 01:34:18,360 'Cause we need to play a brown and a dolphin. 1809 01:34:18,400 --> 01:34:20,960 Probably right. Why do Why do we have to fade 1810 01:34:20,960 --> 01:34:25,040 Kansas City? Well, if, if you did Path's 1811 01:34:25,040 --> 01:34:27,800 strategy of covering every single basis for the team that 1812 01:34:27,800 --> 01:34:29,120 could play Baltimore in round too. 1813 01:34:29,120 --> 01:34:31,280 You'd need Maya. 'Cause someone's beating 1814 01:34:31,280 --> 01:34:33,800 Baltimore in round too, so we want we want everyone alive. 1815 01:34:36,320 --> 01:34:39,680 All right, I'll take. Oh, you're up. 1816 01:34:39,920 --> 01:34:41,960 Sorry, I'm up. Singletary is already up. 1817 01:34:42,600 --> 01:34:44,320 Oh yeah. We, we're fading KC. 1818 01:34:44,320 --> 01:34:45,120 Got it. Got it. 1819 01:34:45,120 --> 01:34:45,680 Got it. Got it. 1820 01:34:45,680 --> 01:34:48,120 Got it. No, we don't have to. 1821 01:34:48,160 --> 01:34:53,720 But I think I don't know. Sorry, whose pick is it? 1822 01:34:54,160 --> 01:34:56,000 Pat took Tyriq. OK. 1823 01:34:56,760 --> 01:34:58,840 And I tried to take in an eligible player at the same 1824 01:34:58,840 --> 01:35:11,200 time. All go with Goddard's tricky for 1825 01:35:11,240 --> 01:35:18,680 Njoku. Wait we don't want to play a 1826 01:35:18,680 --> 01:35:21,480 Steeler though? No, we are. 1827 01:35:21,480 --> 01:35:24,080 We Is that all paths? Steelers. 1828 01:35:24,400 --> 01:35:26,440 Steelers are all right. It's clue those Steelers are not 1829 01:35:26,440 --> 01:35:29,120 Steelers are losing when we have Allen, so we can't. 1830 01:35:29,720 --> 01:35:31,400 Oh, right, we have Allen. Exactly. 1831 01:35:31,960 --> 01:35:33,920 We. It's like, yeah, we got the 1832 01:35:33,920 --> 01:35:37,440 Ravens lost, right? So the Browns are the last one 1833 01:35:37,440 --> 01:35:40,000 we need to get in is is there another game we haven't done 1834 01:35:40,000 --> 01:35:42,240 anything from yet? The No, just the Browns. 1835 01:35:44,960 --> 01:35:48,720 And we don't have the other two. Spots We don't have Detroit yet. 1836 01:35:48,720 --> 01:35:49,760 We. Don't have the Bucks. 1837 01:35:49,760 --> 01:35:52,480 We don't have Detroit. We don't have Packers. 1838 01:35:52,480 --> 01:35:54,920 The Lions, Detroit Bucks, Lions, Packers. 1839 01:35:55,280 --> 01:35:58,200 Three flex and a place kicker. Chiefs. 1840 01:35:58,520 --> 01:36:00,440 And if, yeah. I think you did. 1841 01:36:00,440 --> 01:36:03,720 You definitely wanna play the The Brown, the Texan. 1842 01:36:04,560 --> 01:36:05,720 We have a Texan. First, sorry. 1843 01:36:05,840 --> 01:36:06,480 Sorry. I mean the. 1844 01:36:06,600 --> 01:36:07,400 I mean the Browns. Yeah. 1845 01:36:07,760 --> 01:36:10,800 I think it's Amari because I think when you play Goder he to 1846 01:36:10,800 --> 01:36:12,720 me strikes me as a one tight end guy. 1847 01:36:12,720 --> 01:36:16,480 So I'll, I'll say, Amari. Even though, like 10 seconds 1848 01:36:16,560 --> 01:36:19,040 before you said Amari, it's the longest Amari Cooper pick ever. 1849 01:36:22,080 --> 01:36:24,440 Quit Amari. Fuck off. 1850 01:36:26,960 --> 01:36:30,080 I was doing everything I could to not like Amari Cooper. 1851 01:36:30,080 --> 01:36:31,680 It's. Been a tough week for Bed. 1852 01:36:31,840 --> 01:36:34,920 It's been a tough week everybody, everybody calm down. 1853 01:36:35,120 --> 01:36:37,640 Everybody calm down. It's been a tough week for Bed. 1854 01:36:38,440 --> 01:36:41,760 If he needs a little extra time to get to Amari Cooper, let him 1855 01:36:41,760 --> 01:36:45,480 take his goddamn time. I almost, said Austin Safarian 1856 01:36:45,480 --> 01:36:49,560 Jenkins in. A huge dink there, dude. 1857 01:36:49,600 --> 01:36:52,520 I was about to take Jerome Ford just to avoid this. 1858 01:36:52,520 --> 01:36:56,920 Oh God. Cedric Toman. 1859 01:36:56,920 --> 01:37:00,000 Viable. I mean, we're. 1860 01:37:00,000 --> 01:37:01,960 Already Mega. You know he's not playing Monra 1861 01:37:02,080 --> 01:37:08,720 here. All right, it's back to Dink. 1862 01:37:09,080 --> 01:37:12,000 I played Romanra. All right. 1863 01:37:12,040 --> 01:37:16,520 OK, So Tampa Bay, KC, Pittsburgh. 1864 01:37:16,720 --> 01:37:17,720 You see, we're fading. Pittsburgh. 1865 01:37:17,720 --> 01:37:19,240 We're fading. So it's Tampa Bay and. 1866 01:37:19,600 --> 01:37:21,120 Green Bay We could fade Tampa Bay, too. 1867 01:37:21,120 --> 01:37:22,360 Tampa Bay and Green Bay, you could fade. 1868 01:37:22,360 --> 01:37:24,160 Tampa Bay, you could fade. Green Bay too. 1869 01:37:24,160 --> 01:37:26,240 You don't have to fade KC necessarily. 1870 01:37:26,240 --> 01:37:26,840 Got. You could play KC. 1871 01:37:26,840 --> 01:37:29,440 I think we could play KC, OK. You could play. 1872 01:37:29,440 --> 01:37:31,640 You could play rice. Or Pacheco. 1873 01:37:35,880 --> 01:37:37,400 Or Kelsey. You mean Kelly's still in 1874 01:37:37,400 --> 01:37:39,600 playing double? Yeah. 1875 01:37:40,040 --> 01:37:42,280 No man. Once we put Goddard in, it's the 1876 01:37:42,320 --> 01:37:46,080 most obvious and Hari pick ever. I mean, Goddard is probably 1877 01:37:46,080 --> 01:37:48,120 better than a loss. I don't know. 1878 01:37:48,120 --> 01:37:51,000 It's it's close between fading KC or fading Tampa Bay. 1879 01:37:52,880 --> 01:37:54,560 Do you think I? Think. 1880 01:37:54,800 --> 01:37:59,760 I think so. I don't think we want as. 1881 01:38:00,000 --> 01:38:01,640 As. I mean as incredible as Bucker's 1882 01:38:01,640 --> 01:38:02,880 been. I don't think we want Bucker in 1883 01:38:02,880 --> 01:38:04,160 -30°. It's. 1884 01:38:04,160 --> 01:38:06,160 One of these two probably. Yeah. 1885 01:38:06,520 --> 01:38:13,320 So let's go. Let's go McLaughlin. 1886 01:38:13,720 --> 01:38:15,120 I'll go McLaughlin. Cool. 1887 01:38:16,240 --> 01:38:18,320 There you go. So you're leaving me? 1888 01:38:19,120 --> 01:38:21,080 The fun. We're gonna be Fading Green Bay 1889 01:38:21,160 --> 01:38:22,360 for sure. Yeah. 1890 01:38:23,400 --> 01:38:27,880 Yeah, so I'll go Rishi Rice. All right, nice. 1891 01:38:27,880 --> 01:38:33,000 Let me just scroll and scroll and scroll. 1892 01:38:35,520 --> 01:38:38,760 All right, the final line up that we built here, Josh Allen, 1893 01:38:38,760 --> 01:38:42,240 Devin Singletary, Christian McCaffrey, Cooper Cup, CD Lamb, 1894 01:38:42,240 --> 01:38:45,640 Amari, Cooper, Tyree Kill, Aman, Raw, Rashi, Rice Gottard, Chase 1895 01:38:45,640 --> 01:38:47,960 McLaughlin, and Baltimore Defense. 1896 01:38:48,160 --> 01:38:51,600 This lineup is eerily similar like structurally and 1897 01:38:51,600 --> 01:38:53,920 thematically to the one we made last night where it's still, 1898 01:38:53,920 --> 01:38:57,120 it's like it's still 2 running backs, it's still one tight end, 1899 01:38:57,360 --> 01:39:00,320 and yet it's full fading. The two teams that most people 1900 01:39:00,320 --> 01:39:03,480 are going to full fade and it's also still mega unique. 1901 01:39:05,520 --> 01:39:11,160 Yeah, yeah it's it's not it's not that hard to get like really 1902 01:39:11,160 --> 01:39:13,440 different in this tournament. I mean Rashi Rice already is 1903 01:39:13,440 --> 01:39:18,280 like a very Rashi Rice. Devon Singletary yeah, those. 1904 01:39:18,520 --> 01:39:21,640 I mean Rice and Singletary will definitely be sub ten. 1905 01:39:23,520 --> 01:39:24,680 Well Singletary definitely will be. 1906 01:39:24,680 --> 01:39:29,240 Rice probably will be and then got her and Cup will probably be 1907 01:39:29,240 --> 01:39:32,840 around 20. So you're you're already pretty 1908 01:39:33,400 --> 01:39:39,200 off the beaten path. Yep, Yeah. 1909 01:39:39,200 --> 01:39:42,240 Is there anything with this one that doesn't check out 1910 01:39:42,240 --> 01:39:46,640 logically? I think it's fine, right? 1911 01:39:46,880 --> 01:39:48,640 No, it works with DMR to protect. 1912 01:39:48,640 --> 01:39:50,120 I don't know whose idea that was. 1913 01:39:54,400 --> 01:39:58,560 Yeah, because you're yeah, you're you're OK with either 1914 01:39:58,560 --> 01:40:01,280 Houston or Cleveland winning in this scenario? 1915 01:40:04,240 --> 01:40:08,400 We're probably we're also OK with Kansas City or Miami 1916 01:40:08,600 --> 01:40:10,560 winning in that scenario, but we prefer Miami. 1917 01:40:11,160 --> 01:40:12,480 Prefer. Miami. 1918 01:40:12,760 --> 01:40:15,640 We definitely prefer Miami. That makes it easier for Allen 1919 01:40:15,840 --> 01:40:20,000 and yeah. Yeah, although if you're if like 1920 01:40:20,040 --> 01:40:24,080 if you if Devin Singletary is your lowest on player and they 1921 01:40:24,080 --> 01:40:27,440 win and then he goes on the road and beats Baltimore, he probably 1922 01:40:27,520 --> 01:40:30,120 has a positive game script and he's probably just like the 1923 01:40:30,120 --> 01:40:35,080 smash of all smashes. Yeah, although like Amari, if 1924 01:40:35,080 --> 01:40:38,840 they, I mean, the Cleveland defense could take out Baltimore 1925 01:40:38,840 --> 01:40:41,000 and then it's like then you're getting three games up from 1926 01:40:41,000 --> 01:40:42,760 Amari. Even if he doesn't have a great 1927 01:40:42,760 --> 01:40:44,600 game against the Ravens, it's pretty sick. 1928 01:40:45,560 --> 01:40:50,400 Yeah, all right, dudes. We got we got to get in the lab, 1929 01:40:50,560 --> 01:40:52,600 start building some teams. We got to roll up our sleeves, 1930 01:40:52,600 --> 01:40:57,920 get some calluses on these. On these hands, Dink and Leonie, 1931 01:40:57,920 --> 01:41:00,680 you guys already got your established million out for Wild 1932 01:41:00,720 --> 01:41:05,160 Card weekend. Leonie also did a podcast 1933 01:41:05,200 --> 01:41:10,720 earlier today covering both this contest and NFFC strategy. 1934 01:41:11,200 --> 01:41:13,840 Anything else you guys are working on right now? 1935 01:41:15,080 --> 01:41:16,800 Thanks, grinding the NBA streets. 1936 01:41:18,440 --> 01:41:21,920 Yeah, just making sure there's no changes for this 10:00 game 1937 01:41:23,200 --> 01:41:25,960 so we can keep the Twitter streets clean tonight, you know? 1938 01:41:26,600 --> 01:41:30,280 Yeah, it's been tough out there. It always is, man. 1939 01:41:30,400 --> 01:41:33,880 It always is. Are you? 1940 01:41:34,080 --> 01:41:37,520 Are you on team You you would like the the sites to fully 1941 01:41:37,520 --> 01:41:42,120 eliminate late swap? Fully eliminate late swap. 1942 01:41:42,120 --> 01:41:45,040 I've probably dug in my heels too much on that over the last 1943 01:41:45,040 --> 01:41:48,400 10 years to say to flip sides and say yes, I'd like it 1944 01:41:48,400 --> 01:41:51,040 eliminated. I've I've been the I I think 1945 01:41:51,200 --> 01:41:54,040 Aguiar blocked me on all social media platforms because of my 1946 01:41:54,040 --> 01:41:56,120 arguing for late swap in back in the day. 1947 01:41:56,120 --> 01:41:57,480 So are you? Are you still? 1948 01:41:57,480 --> 01:42:00,080 Blocked. I'm pretty confident I'm still 1949 01:42:00,080 --> 01:42:04,960 blocked by Aguiar so. Who got my deposit limits raised 1950 01:42:04,960 --> 01:42:11,600 last week? So, yeah, so I I I think what 1951 01:42:11,600 --> 01:42:14,240 they're doing now with the like eliminating the late games and 1952 01:42:14,240 --> 01:42:17,720 testing smaller slate sizes, I think is like a good middle 1953 01:42:17,720 --> 01:42:21,880 ground for the casual consumer. And I think just NBADFS needs 1954 01:42:21,880 --> 01:42:24,800 more people who want to play it, who want to be able to play it 1955 01:42:24,800 --> 01:42:28,640 casually, which is a challenge with the way that the NBA is 1956 01:42:28,640 --> 01:42:30,760 structured. I never got it. 1957 01:42:30,800 --> 01:42:34,720 I I forget maybe, I don't know, four or five years ago I was 1958 01:42:34,720 --> 01:42:36,560 like, I'll try this out. And then that was one of the 1959 01:42:36,560 --> 01:42:38,040 reasons I was like, I have not to do this. 1960 01:42:38,680 --> 01:42:43,160 Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, we appreciate all of you 1961 01:42:43,160 --> 01:42:46,600 guys joining us here for Playoff week. 1962 01:42:46,600 --> 01:42:49,280 Always a blast. And yeah, we'll we'll keep the 1963 01:42:49,280 --> 01:42:52,920 conversation going in the Discord here. 1964 01:42:52,920 --> 01:42:55,520 And yeah, hope you guys all get all your lineups in. 1965 01:42:55,520 --> 01:42:58,720 There's still some contests open on Underdog. 1966 01:42:58,720 --> 01:43:02,000 I saw Sacrilegious is up to like 130 gauntlets he mentioned in 1967 01:43:02,000 --> 01:43:04,160 the chat earlier. Gauntlet twos. 1968 01:43:04,400 --> 01:43:08,360 By the way, he is going to hit 1000 playoff basketball drafts, 1969 01:43:08,360 --> 01:43:10,360 it sounds like. He was late to this stream. 1970 01:43:10,560 --> 01:43:12,840 He showed up 20 minutes late. He's like, man, sorry I got 1971 01:43:12,880 --> 01:43:14,400 wrapped up in a bunch of giraffes. 1972 01:43:15,440 --> 01:43:19,400 Yeah, yes, appreciate all of you guys hanging out. 1973 01:43:19,480 --> 01:43:22,800 And again, our programming note, so we're going to have no show 1974 01:43:22,800 --> 01:43:25,360 next Thursday. I'm traveling, but we're going 1975 01:43:25,360 --> 01:43:29,720 to do a special edition ship cast on Monday night for Eagles 1976 01:43:29,760 --> 01:43:32,440 and Bucks. So same deal as usual. 1977 01:43:32,440 --> 01:43:34,520 We'll get a guest, We'll have some pick Em's. 1978 01:43:34,520 --> 01:43:35,920 We'll have some drinks, We'll sweat it out. 1979 01:43:35,920 --> 01:43:39,440 We'll get to check in on all of the updated ownership stuff, 1980 01:43:39,720 --> 01:43:42,720 check out some of our underdog high stakes teams we drafted all 1981 01:43:42,720 --> 01:43:44,280 of that good stuff, so tune in for that. 1982 01:43:44,520 --> 01:43:47,440 I believe kickoff is 15 minutes earlier than usual. 8:00 PM 1983 01:43:47,440 --> 01:43:49,960 Eastern. I want to say that'll be Monday 1984 01:43:50,000 --> 01:43:51,720 night. Gretch. 1985 01:43:51,720 --> 01:43:53,440 Pat. Anything else I'm forgetting 1986 01:43:53,440 --> 01:43:56,680 here? No, I I threw some thoughts 1987 01:43:56,680 --> 01:44:00,200 together on leg up as I mentioned just kind of some of 1988 01:44:00,200 --> 01:44:01,880 the some of the stuff we covered today of kind of how the 1989 01:44:01,880 --> 01:44:04,440 landscape shifting if you want to check that out kind of a 1990 01:44:04,440 --> 01:44:08,880 quick quick read. Yeah, yeah, I hit all of the the 1991 01:44:08,880 --> 01:44:12,360 ownership related news stuff. Gretch, anything for you? 1992 01:44:12,880 --> 01:44:16,080 Yeah, no, I just got my heart pulled out of my chest this 1993 01:44:16,080 --> 01:44:18,080 morning. But other than that, no solid 1994 01:44:18,080 --> 01:44:19,960 since last night. There you go. 1995 01:44:20,480 --> 01:44:24,120 Where I'm I just wanted to note I'm very interested in seeing 1996 01:44:24,120 --> 01:44:26,400 what a quick read from Pat Crane looks like. 1997 01:44:26,520 --> 01:44:28,640 It's I. Believe under 1000 words. 1998 01:44:28,640 --> 01:44:31,000 I mean, it's probably. Like 1200? 1999 01:44:31,960 --> 01:44:36,320 Yeah, it might have been 1200. I think it was, I think it was 2000 01:44:36,320 --> 01:44:38,160 like 900 LB that I added to her section. 2001 01:44:40,200 --> 01:44:46,200 Gretch, what's the over under on Dunzay's NFL draft pick number? 2002 01:44:46,600 --> 01:44:49,200 I don't know. I I saw someone say he's a lock 2003 01:44:49,200 --> 01:44:52,040 for the top ten. I think people really like him. 2004 01:44:52,040 --> 01:44:55,760 I think my prediction on him is Pat's not going to like him, 2005 01:44:55,760 --> 01:44:59,480 'cause I was looking to snap a little bit and he he was good in 2006 01:44:59,480 --> 01:45:02,800 his in his fourth season. He and he's he's going to be a 2007 01:45:02,800 --> 01:45:05,520 guy who needed that fourth season and Pat's numbers. 2008 01:45:05,520 --> 01:45:08,760 And then I'm going to tell Pat, Put the fucking film on, bro. 2009 01:45:10,080 --> 01:45:12,760 Hey, actually fucking go to the national championship. 2010 01:45:12,760 --> 01:45:18,320 Go fucking to watch the game. Bro, All right. 2011 01:45:19,520 --> 01:45:22,080 I appreciate you all. Join us in the Discord. 2012 01:45:22,080 --> 01:45:24,320 Good luck. I will not be bullied off my 2013 01:45:24,360 --> 01:45:27,040 doomsday take. That I don't know yet. 2014 01:45:27,600 --> 01:45:29,200 Not capitulating this. Is I? 2015 01:45:29,320 --> 01:45:32,440 I don't have a take yet, but I will have whatever take I 2016 01:45:32,520 --> 01:45:33,680 fucking have, I'm telling you that. 2017 01:45:36,600 --> 01:45:41,960 Hey, can we get one final last update from Pat Kornacki here to 2018 01:45:41,960 --> 01:45:44,320 take us out? So we are looking at some 2019 01:45:44,320 --> 01:45:47,880 ownership changes overnight, probably not too, nothing too 2020 01:45:47,880 --> 01:45:49,480 major. You know things are pretty 2021 01:45:49,480 --> 01:45:51,960 settled in, but we could see some shifts. 2022 01:45:51,960 --> 01:45:53,880 I would say more in the Tampa Bay area. 2023 01:45:53,880 --> 01:45:56,720 We could see some minor shifts in the Rashad White direction. 2024 01:45:57,120 --> 01:45:59,680 We could also see some Kyron Williams. 2025 01:45:59,960 --> 01:46:03,920 There's some incoming bearish downward pressure as the puka 2026 01:46:03,920 --> 01:46:05,640 steam rises. Look for that. 2027 01:46:05,760 --> 01:46:08,320 We'll see you tomorrow. Good luck in your championships.