All right, it all right. It right right back.
We've made it to the end of the road FFPC playoff week.
This is the finale. 4 Straights nights.
I can't talk. I've had too many margaritas
Tonight, four straight nights of FFPC programming.
We're going to cap it with our friends Dink and Leone from ETR.
Talk through the latest news, Lots of things.
Kind of shaking up the landscape, dare I say, flipping
the slate on its head. Talk through some more of our
favorite current thoughts for strategy pivots, all that good
stuff. And naturally we will build a
line up tonight. It's ship chasing ETR crossover
FFPC challenge. Let's do it.
Pat Fryer helmos This is why. This is why I'm hot Anita hand
job. Fix your sight.
Jamar Alpha. Play Chase.
You can't handle the heat. It looks like we're finally at
this point. You're right.
Aren't you supposed to be updating some MBA projections
right now, Dink? I'm.
Let me check my DMS. Let's see.
Let's. See.
Yeah, I usually get my notifications on.
If projections need updating via DM, these.
Days actually works for each our backup plan run notifications.
Is this this is your annual appearance on ship chasing,
right? You don't have.
Did you hop on in the summer at all or any of the other shows?
Buddy, I have no idea. You'd remember if you did.
I have no idea what shows I've been on, what shows about.
I don't even know why people still invite me to do football
shows, but I keep showing up and I keep taking the checks, so you
know. You're you're our coxswain, or
as Leone typed it out in our private chat today, the
coxswain. Leone, how are you doing
tonight? Good.
I'm feeling, you know, grateful to be doing this show with you
guys is always one of my favorite things each year doing
this contest, making all these lineups and tilting that we're
locked out of, winning by one point in 10 different lineups
after the Wild Card weekend. Yeah, you definitely carry like
the tilt torch for us as like the playoffs move on.
Like we'll all have mentally moved on and you'll still be
like, OK, if Mike Evans scores 69 points, we can actually still
get first. I've learned from Drew how to
just, you know, just hold on to any sweat possible.
Yeah, exactly. Gretch Crane, how we doing
tonight? Doing good.
Alabama just stole my my head coach feels great, great to be a
Husky over here. So.
Wow. Pete's Pete's just learning this
now. I mean, believe it or not, I
don't have alerts turned on for Washington Huskies hot Stone
news. I was a long week.
I was going to complain. My complaint feels less valid
now. I I didn't leave enough time to
eat dinner, so now I have to eat this lobster roll on stream.
Jeez. Lifestyles of the Rich and the
Famous Lobster rolls on stream. The rest of us are priced out of
those. Probably costs $38, so.
I paid the greatest. One day I thought we might win a
national title. I was at the game.
Now we don't even know the head coach and all of our players are
are either going pro or transferring away.
It's been it's been a great week.
It's been a good week for Husky football.
Yeah, I think you made it to the national championship.
Game, I know. You got to go.
I mean, like, yeah, that's pretty.
It's pretty. Nice.
It is cool. It's cool.
Let's do that. I mean, you got to go watch a
game. Leonie has to go shovel his
team's, you know, field just so they can play this weekend.
Leonie, have you volunteered? You're gonna be on the front
lines. Liam's already shirking his
duty. He's a draft Dodger.
I'm. I mean, it's 10:00 PM at night.
You got to show up like. Obviously.
Well, did you hear Liam's reasoning?
He says the snow's an advantage, and so he actually refuses to
participate because that would actually be helping out the
Steelers. Well, that's farcical, Liam,
because they want you to shovel the seats in the stadium so
people can go. They don't actually want you to
shovel the field. Liam would probably have a
retort where it's like, no, the fans cheer louder if there's
fucking icicles in their ass and then you need to leave them
there. He wants.
To throw his dill balls. That's what it is.
He wants the the throwing of the snowballs.
Advantage. Oh God.
Exactly. I got yelled at for that last
time. Yeah, that doll.
It was so annoying, that Dolphins game.
Well, if you guys don't have snowballs, you're just gonna
throw dildos. You guys are gonna throw
something something. Or the other.
So Leotie, let me get your temperature as a, you know, very
unbiased, logical, rational Bills fan.
You know the the narrative around is basically every team
is live for an upset this weekend except the Steelers.
They're the one team that can't win.
Do you want to mush your your team by agreeing with that take?
No, I think, I think they're starting to also be in the live
to lose. People are starting to get on
this. The weather completely
neutralizes, you know, quarterback advantage, blah,
blah, blah. So I don't need to mush them.
You know, I think people think Pittsburgh's live because of the
weather stuff. It is kind of a crazy
combination of spread in total right now.
It's like a 10 point spread on a 33 total.
Have you got like what kind of actual weather docks have you
guys made to your projections? We've docked that game pretty
good. The play count's down and a lot
of this is related to the total, right?
Like, so the total's super low, so generally that's more running
place to begin with in a lower play count.
But we've also docked the pass rate like even even more than we
normally would on a total of this magnitude.
And some of the efficiency in passing like we haven't gone
full crazy. But yeah, it's it's docked
pretty good to reflect, you know, what, 33 1/2 total.
Dink, are you? Are you a weather bro this
weekend? Are there any spots we're
worried about? I'm I'm excited that people are
potentially going to dock the Kansas City, Miami situation
heavily. That's the one that I'm more
excited by because I think ultimately like everything with
Miami is just whether they hit big plays or not.
And if they hit big plays then you know they're going to,
they're going to be useful in fantasy and on the chief side of
things they tend to throw the ball kind of regardless.
So that's the one that's more interesting to me to that people
are afraid of that I'm less concerned about.
The Buffalo one is more just like it.
It seems like it could be an absolute disaster.
And Buffalo is tough to play from ADFS perspective in general
because like we talked about this on established 1,000,000,
but if you play digs, you can get digs right and still get
buried like at the wide receiver position with the options that
are there. So more interested in the KC
Miami game from a weather perspective than Buffalo and
pet. Wait until we show Drew this
Tyreek Kill Ownership projection in in the FFPC contest.
Well, that's why I wanted to get your guys thoughts on where the
field is going to go with that because I was listening to
Stealing Bananas and Ben, you were kind of making the point
that maybe people weren't going to be concerned about this
enough because, you know, it's kind of too easy to play Tyreek
and a chief. But I am feeling like people
are. I mean, I'm hearing lots about
the weather. So I think it's not like people
are overlooking the weather, but are they then going to have the
stones to do like Miami Full fades?
Because I I don't think the running backs are really that
appealing to people in this contest either, given that we're
going to get both and they don't want to pick between the two,
so. That was sort of my point is
that people want to play both sides of games where they think
teams can go on to win another game, right?
Like this is the game where people don't want to pick a
winner and and so there's leverage in picking a winner.
The the the games, it's like the DFS versus FFPC is just so
different. You know where everything Drew
is saying is valid, but then in FFPC there's a couple teams that
are such obvious fades. You make those obvious fades
like you fade Pittsburgh. Maybe you fade Green Bay like
the two big dogs and all of a sudden, you know, are you
playing Miami Defense or kicker? And then there's the Cleveland,
Houston game. So I do think Tyree Kill's going
to get on quite a bit just because, you know, it's a
different type of format and people are just going to feel
comfortable clicking that, you know, no salary cap restrictions
or anything. We had a bunch of kind of injury
news. Things develop today.
I I would say nothing like seismic, but certainly wrinkles
to how we've been thinking about things.
Let's start. At felt a little seismic to me.
I went to keep all the numbers around.
That's because when you make one percentage shift to the
ownership projections, it means you got to spend another 30
minutes reconciling it across everything else.
That's exactly right. For my sailing it was all very
minimal tweaks. Mark Mark Andrews back at
practice today. Like, I do think it's
interesting in that if Mark Andrews never got hurt and he
was playing at the clip that, you know we've seen peak Mark
Andrews, he would have been probably pretty close to a
challenger to Lamar Jackson for ownership in this contest, which
is famously tied in premium on a slate where we're starved for
really good tight end options. Now he is back practicing, I
assume. Are you guys projecting him to
play at all this weekend, or how are you guys projecting him
right now, Leonie? We're projecting him out for the
divisional round and back for the conference championship in
Super Bowl. I know Silva thinks there's a
pretty decent chance he's actually back to the divisional
round. I really don't know, but that's
the way we're projecting it right now.
And so I assume Pat like you're no one, no one's playing Mark
Andrews, but the shifts are likely comes down.
Does it make people more confident in Lamar and that he
has another weapon? Like how?
How do you think it shakes out? That's an interesting angle that
people would actually feel more comfortable with.
Lamar. I hadn't adjusted Lamar's
ownership, but maybe I should a little.
But no, I don't think you can play Andrews because you cannot
take a zero in the divisional round, which is the most likely
thing to happen. Like this is a contest where
we're going to be gutted because like our buck got outscored by
another buck by 2 1/2 points and like then they lose and we can't
get those 2 1/2 points again. So much locks in this contest
that small point differences can be huge swing, so risking a 0 is
not really on the table I think. But at the same point I do think
it matters because it makes likely, I think, a really bad
play. Now you're risking a really low
score in the Super Bowl. Yep.
Any gretch any? Any thoughts for you on what
Andrews back means for a contest here?
I think at FFPC we've talked a lot about how the Titan position
is weak, I and I. So I think there are ways that
he can get there based on the rest of the position failing.
If if, if the Browns lose and then joke who doesn't have a big
game if Kelsey isn't the guy for KC.
I mean, it could be Pacheco, could be Rashi Rice, depends how
many games they play. You might say if they lose to
Miami in the first game, there's not really a clear third.
We've talked about Goddard, we've talked a little bit about
Kincaid, so that's about some of the other guys.
But there's not like a clear third option.
And even if Andrews doesn't play in the second round, I mean like
in tight end premium. And if there's a situation where
the other skill guys kind of spread out with stuff even if
they win, if they basically if they play two games and he only
plays one, I feel like he could still be optimal a tight end.
I don't know if that seems crazy, but it would depend on
the rest of the tight end position.
I think he needs to go to the Super Bowl if he doesn't play
the divisional round. OK.
But he could play the divisional round, you know, right?
Well, you you make the Super Bowl though the one game miss
almost doesn't matter a ton because you're gonna get the
well. I guess.
It still matters relative to your teammates though.
But to. Your teammates?
Yeah, it. Matters to your teammates.
But you could. And one of those teammates is
the chalk quarterback, right? So you're already a dog with
Lamar. Like if if you show up with
Andrews plays the divisional, it's already like, not the most
comfortable thing to show up without Lamar because the NFC
side, you're probably not playing Purdy or Dak.
And even if you did, you know those aren't super great bets to
outscore their teammates. So you're probably showing up
like Andrew CMC versus Lamar, CMC, Does that feel good?
Well, it depends where your scoring's at at that point.
I mean, it's not sure there's gonna be an offset of some sort
and the. Thing is, it's like even with
this, what like what are you gonna have his ownership at PAT
like 1 to 2% Max? Yeah.
So, like, even if Mark Andrew is
just way ahead of schedule and even puts up like a decent score
in the divisional round, it's it's pretty unlikely that you're
competing against Mark Andrews teams for the top score.
It's more like, do you want to potentially gain that edge?
But yeah, I agree sometimes if it's really risky.
And we're going to run into the same thing with A.J.
Brown, where it's like, you know, is it, you know, is it, is
it even. The question is really, do you
want to try to be that team that shows up with Mark Andrews and
now you're live to jump all these Lamar teams, but.
Yeah, it's there's a lot. The, the hardest part of this
every year, especially us making a lot of teams, is we can find
like 20 different smart leverage spots.
But it's like ranking them and deciding which ones and how
heavy to play, the top ones versus spreading it out.
And the Andrews one is probably, you know, not in the top ten,
but. No, it's not.
Maybe in the I don't. He's not he's not someone I I
particularly want to play. I was the same as I was thinking
through it so that I can see the math being.
And so I I don't think it's a Super Bowl thing because I do
think the Lamar element becomes pretty difficult.
Think I mean we've talked a lot about it.
Lamar and Josh Allen are looking like they're going to be soaking
up like 90% of the quarterback membership and and almost
rightfully so. So I'm basically thinking
through a Bill's beat the Ravens in the conference championship
scenario where it is Allen. It's definitely not Lamar and
Dawson, Zay and Odell. Spread stuff around enough and
you get Marc Andrews catching six or eight passes, even if he
only plays one game. It's tight end premium and
there's no also then you also need no other tight end scoring
a lot. I mean, it's it's possible to me
in terms of trying to think through the way this works, and
if I was going to build that, I'd build it as a single tight
end. I would certainly not flex a
tight end because you're using the constraints of the tight end
position as part of the argument, but I don't even love
it. To Leonie's point, it's not one
of the, like top ten favorite types of those plays that.
This this reminds me, I was watching Leonie's stream earlier
today and you were talking about like you know how you can build
out these brackets, but sometimes you can build out the
brackets too hyper specific where like you could you
actually if you just tweak things slightly would have a an
opportunity to have a couple different outs with certain
match ups while still playing certain scenarios.
And this is like a very specific scenario which could happen, but
that's I think the problem with the Andrews play is it just
relies on like a lot of things falling in place.
Well, Dink, how about Laporta, who's a little different in that
they're playing this weekend back at practice?
All indications point to him playing.
I know you guys haven't projected in now.
Is he on the menu for you with with Lion stuff like what?
Are you going to play him in DFS this weekend too?
I'm not. I mean the last thing we saw
towards the end of the regular season from Dan Campbell and the
Lions is that they love deception, right?
So I feel like this whole Sam Laporta thing is built on
deception. I I don't.
I I can't imagine that he's going to play his normal role.
My expectation is that he'll be in in the goal line packages
maybe he'll have three or four targets total in the game.
They'll probably be end zone related targets.
If I'm going to play that, you know, maybe I play it on FanDuel
from ADFS perspective for these contests and whatnot.
Like I think he's going to be really heavily limited.
But Mike Leonie knows like I'm really biased towards guys
assuming that guys are hurt in any way that the downside is
really really low. So like I'm always the guy who
any questionable tag game time decision like Christian Kirk
last week I was like I am fading Christian Kirk hard if he plays
in this game from ADFS perspective.
So my bias is towards these situations and kind of assuming
that a hurt player is going to have a very limited role or high
risk of re injury. So I would not be super excited.
I have, I have Laporta and you know some of the the Gauntlet,
some of the DK stuff I took like last round Laporta, like maybe
maybe I get some points there, but I in in these contests where
you need a lot of points in the first week, I'm not as excited
to to play them. The other thing with Aporta is
that I wrote about this today on legendary upside.
I just kind of got a quick post out on some of my thoughts.
But he's a he's an interesting one to think through because
you're like, yeah, OK, but if they win, then he's even more
healthy the following week. But also now you're playing two
games against Amanrath and the bigger that sample gets the more
you want Almond Ross. So it just it's a little I I
don't I don't really think he's a a great option at all.
Yeah, if anything, it's even. I would say it's more of the
thing, you know, does Andrew's back get you more excited about
Lamar? I think in general it makes me
more excited about just like the Lions being able to go a little
bit further. But how you apply that to the
playoff contest is still basically airspeed.
Maybe Gibbs, right? Like that's.
What they Dave Burkett tweeted out like a a video of them
practicing. And he isn't like a full leg
knee brace. Like it is not like he they
practiced in full, but like he is not just out there jogging
around, you know, looking normal like he's he's still working
back. If he was healthy, he would have
been a fun you're playing the the Lions to lose like a one
game play but. Yes, exactly.
Yeah. He's not healthy.
He's. Not healthy.
Yep. So that that one and then I
think the other. The huge domino right now is
what's going on with A.J. Brown and the Eagles.
Whereas if we had full practices from A.J.
Brown would have been in the Boomer.
Opto would have been the chalk. Even with his form not being,
you know, great down the stretch, now we have him not
practicing. I still have not heard like a
single report. Like not anything like, oh, you
know, he's he's looking good. He's, you know, they're going to
try to get like it's just crickets, dudes not practicing.
It feels very ominous, very bearish.
Pat, I know you made some tweaks to the ownership projections in
light of today's DMP. Yeah, I did.
I mean I was probably overly bullish early in the week just
like there have been some stuff of oh, you know it's not, it's
not that bad he's walking around, but the double DNP, I
don't know how much this stuff matters but like there's also
like he he deactivated his Twitter account and scrubbed
some stuff from I mean there's always this stuff.
So I'm like it doesn't feel great but more the DNP and I
want to see the I would love to see him back in practice
tomorrow. But I think the other thing is
like people are going to. Kind of have to make this like
we're going to build all of our line UPS tonight with the
information that we have. How can we put A.J.
Brown in? And so it's just going to
already going to have a big impact on ownership.
I haven't been like 5%. I could I could see even that
bringing that down, I could see bringing it up up a little bit.
He'll never get to where he could have been if he practiced
this week. How?
Like, let's let's assume A.J. Brown doesn't play.
I'm already kind of working under the assumption the field
doesn't even want to deal with it no matter what.
Like, even if he gets in a limited practice tomorrow, I
just assume the field's like I don't even want to take the risk
that comes Monday he's not active or he's limited or
whatever. Like you're putting $200.00 on
this entry that locks Saturday afternoon like no one wants to
take a zero on that. Yes, but I do think there's a
point, and that's why I've had to put him at 5%, 'cause I think
there's a point at which you go, but no one's going to play him
now, so maybe, maybe he becomes this contrarian pivot.
So it depends again on the practice report.
If it's like he's kind of 5050 to play, then I think it'd be
probably more like 1%. Well, five 5% is a good number,
but in that you basically need to be putting in 20 lineups for
him to enter your portfolio. And I not a lot of people are
putting in 20 lineups. So that's why it could even come
in less, less than 5%. For sure.
And so, yeah, now I have Jake Elliott as the chalk on the
Eagles. I mean, I've got him up to 27%.
I've got the Eagles fade up to 45%.
I could see that coming in even a little higher, just as people
don't. I mean you there's already like
a lot of sentiment that the the Buccaneers could win this game
at home, the Eagles obviously looking so bad down the stretch
and then it's just like easier, 'cause I think that kind of
comes into play in this contest of like not everyone's always
going to think through like what will happen and therefore I will
pick a line up that represents what I think will happen.
They will go be a lot easier for me if the Bucks won this game.
So I'm going to say that they will and I think you'll get some
of that. I could see them like depending.
I'm kind of waiting a little bit on the Brown stuff, but I could
end up having the Eagles total fade up closer to 55% than the
45% I have it at now as people. I think maybe just decide that
they don't want to deal with this, but right now I've got
Elliott 27, Devonte Smith 24, Dallas Gottard 19, Philly Fade
16, A.J. Brown 5, Jalen Hurts 4, Swift 2,
defense two, and then nothing for anyone else.
I think that makes a lot of sense.
It does, and I'm I'm getting much more worried about A.J.
Brown as well. It does make me want to make the
bet because Brown has played through DNPS with knee issues in
the past and smashed. That is something that he
specifically has done multiple times, like during his Tennessee
years. I I don't think that's
necessarily what it's what's gonna happen.
But also like when he, when he seems to throw these fits and
like you talk about the, I think his Twitter and stuff, sometimes
he gets 10 targets the next week.
Yeah. Give me wheel kind of stuff,
yeah. I do think the ownership had
like, as it stands right now with him uncertain to play.
I don't know if people will go like, oh, we'll just play
Devonta then, like, they might just fade.
Like, I could see Devonta for sure, three to five points lower
than you have it, and then that's where you get your.
And that goes to the. Portal fade.
That's how. That's where I would take it
from, you know. I do think you're right that
people are gonna just want to pick the Bucks to win 'cause
they don't want to deal with the Eagles.
And the Eagles can still win. Even if A.J.
Brown doesn't play. They can win, right?
Right. And that's that's where my brain
goes right in that it's like do you even have to take on the
A.J. Brown risk if the field just
wants to full fade it, you basically free roll via Goddard
and Devonta Smith. Those guys can have great games
with AJB in and ideally you probably would want like a
limited AJB in for those guys. It's an awesome match up and if
they're not going to catch any steam because of the AJB news,
like that's where I get excited. Also, Hertz is, I think, a good
play. Me too.
It was tough to play him a lot, but the NFFC contest, Hertz is
like an amazing play. It's like a totally different
structure. But like he's an amazing play
there where I still don't think he's gonna be owned, but like he
should be. But here I, you know, I think he
might be the third best QB play. On on the NFFC, when I I was
talking about this with Draco earlier, 'cause we were, we were
talking about this last night show.
And I know you talked about it on your show a little bit.
But is the idea with Hertz that if you're like, if a lot of your
other round one stuff goes bad, then you just stick with Hertz
in round two? If not, then you pivot to Purdy?
Is that the like if you have a lot of you playing right?
The The thing is, the NFC side, you're not starting with the
quarterback because you're starting with CD or CMC and
you're playing two quarterbacks. So you've got you pick Lamar or
Allen as one quarterback. Then you start with Hertz.
He could smash in a loss and then you sub in Purdy or Dak.
Or if he wins, maybe you just go, OK, I'm gonna play this as
an Eagles run that nobody else is gonna play, so you have like
a few outs. That's not even form.
You can even. That's the format that
multiplies. Yeah.
So in that format, I mean, can you also get away with just a
low scoring Super Bowl from the quarterback position, being able
to make up like 'cause the advantage at the at the Super
Bowl quarterback position rate is the multiplier advantage that
they have over you. But if it's not that great of a
scoring game, a quarterback just naturally, couldn't you have
made-up for that by what you're picking up in the early rounds?
Yeah definitely that's part of it is like you might even add
purty or DAC like third or fourth round you know and and
there's just because their skill player teammates are are good.
DAC would do. I mean, a little bit harder, I
think, but yeah, yeah, for sure. So so you got you guys think
Philly's going to be faded heavily in this stuff I do.
More than their when. Yes, this seems like, I mean I'm
catching up to all this stuff late as you guys can imagine
with with my NBA responsibilities.
But like there's been all this news all week that's been
negative on Philadelphia. The line has not moved it.
It's moved in favor of Philadelphia during the course
of the week opening at 2 1/2 in a lot of places and moving to
three. So like, if this is the fade,
the public play of of the year, it would seem like to me is that
if there's all this negative news coming on Philadelphia, the
books are holding firm on a key number and there's just like,
Nope, 3. It's three, it's three.
AJ Brown's not playing, it's three.
Like to me, that's a that's a strong signal to be aggressive
on Philadelphia stuff in the first round.
I also feel like there's been like all these teams except
maybe Baltimore, have had up and downs throughout the year,
right? Like Buffalo has, Casey has.
And like I don't know some of these teams that were down on
heading to the playoffs who might be like overly down on
like just like people are overly down on Buffalo.
You know when it was six and six like Philly could definitely
make a run. The challenging part is like I
like Hertz, but you're not going to play like a ton of Hertz you
I mean and I guess it comes down to the Devante Smith projected
ownership. But you could kind of pencil in,
like we're going to play Philly pass catcher here and then like,
we can decide late like exactly what the the split is.
Evans are Evans and Rashad White.
Gonna catch a lot more ownership based on this.
Yeah, so that's I brought them up and Tampa Bay fade down in
kind of direct response to this Philly move, 'cause that 'cause
that's obviously connected. People are gonna shift to
Philly. They'll they'll fade the Bucks
less. I have Evans up to 33 and White
up to 24. I think they'll ultimately come
in pretty close. I could see White flipping Evans
because people don't feel great about the running backs and
white is a is a pretty comfy click.
Especially if you're picking them to win, yeah, for sure.
But Evans, you know, you get the great match up and then you get
them having to throw a bunch in round two, which could
potentially be against the 49ers.
So you could just play Chris? Godwin, Davonta, Smith and
guarantee a low owned advancing receiver.
That's like a pretty good play. A pretty good.
Projection play? For sure you could, yeah.
Yeah, I think the only thing that's keeping the Bucks stuff
in check is just there's uncertainty around how healthy
Baker is, too. Like there's some legitimate
worries about him, and I just haven't seen a lot of chatter of
people super enthused about Bucks in this spot.
Dude, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the casual lineups like
double fade this game. Oh yeah, I I think you will see
that and I I think you might even see hard fates plus Jake
Elliott like that like stuff where you're like, what are you
thinking here? Like there's like you the only
way you you're guaranteeing just Jake Elliott at best.
But I think you'll get some of that I and I think like part of
it, you know with Devonte Smith, right?
Like, he's not that appealing of a play.
And then you also have the potential for like them to win
the game. And then you're bummed because
like Demonte Smith has kind of a whatever game and then AJ
Brown's coming back the next game.
So now you you're like, I wish, I wish I just played Brown or
whatever, you know. And so I don't know, it's just
like tough. It's tough to, like, envision
Demonte Smith as a bet on the Eagles, you know what I mean?
Yeah, he did. He did start.
I mean, like the second-half of the year.
I know. Just doing the projections drove
me crazy because like for a while there, every week it was
like we have to manually up AJ Brown's efficiency.
And then we finally did it. And then he stunk for five games
and Devante was pretty good down the stretch.
So the second-half of the season they were a lot closer.
But overall the target shares been kind of wide?
And that's why I think it just be, even with the quarterbacks
banged up, just like full fading this game, or even full soft
fading, feels like such a mistake.
I mean, the Eagles in the box are what two of the top five
defenses we've been targeting all year in DFS think.
I mean, like these are, these are the spots.
Like what? It's like them, the Commanders,
I mean, they're at the top of the list.
Yeah, I don't. I don't know how you would get
through this contest with not wanting to have exposure to that
game in full, honestly. Like, I think fading like fades
from that game feel difficult to me, that it feels like there'd
be better spots to fade because just the like, we're talking
about all these weather situations and whatnot.
I assume it's going to be good weather in Tampa. 2 defenses
have really struggled. It's just, it seems like it's
going to be hard to avoid finding a game that's pretty
darn worthwhile in the in, you know, in this, in the scoring
environment. The other thing on the weather
front, like we're all talking about it this weekend, but all
the home teams throughout the playoffs are going to be, even
if it could be bad weather again, you know, in Kansas City,
Buffalo or Baltimore would not be shocking, you know, if there
were more weather issues. NFC side's completely clear, you
know. Well, let's let's talk about the
hurt. The hurt stuff more, just from
the lens of what non Allen and her or Lamar quarterbacks are
viable because that, you know, we all are in agreement.
The field is going to be playing Lamar and Allen at like a
massive clip. And then the question is,
whatever that 10 to 15% of leftover quarterback ownership,
like, where can you smartly do that?
I mean, I think this is the most condensed quarterback field
we've seen since we've been covering the contest.
You have Lamar's is I think pretty good quarterback chalk at
this point because of how high Josh Allen will be and Josh
Allen also a very strong play. Like neither one of them feels
like, you know, kind of out of control because they're sort of
keeping each other in check a bit.
And then Hertz and Mahomes are both like great fantasy
quarterbacks, last year's Super Bowl representatives and will be
very low owned. So I think they're strong plays.
And then you have DAC and Purdy, we're the one and two seed in
the NFC and are going to be even less owned I think than Mahomes
and Hertz. So I think they're pretty
viable, although you know the whole teammate conversation
comes into play there in a big way.
But like why get past that? Like if you if we're talking
like a couple percent on DAC or Purdy maybe 5% ish on Mahomes
and and Hertz like that's contrarian enough.
I I don't really see the point really of of trying to play like
a Stafford line up or something like that.
Yeah, especially because some of these quarterbacks, like, not
only would you need them to make the Super Bowl, which is low
odds, you would need them to outscore their teammates, and
you would need Lamar Allen and Hertz to still fail in like
multiple games. Like there's a lot you would
need to get right. It's not just like, oh, if the
Browns go to the Super Bowl like Flacco, like, you know, and Joku
is probably the favorite, you know, the bronze or Amari or
Amari. Like he's he's still not the
favorite on his own team. So I'm with you.
I think it's like there's like 6 quarterbacks you can pick from.
It seems ridiculous to go outside of that.
And then even of those six, I could see whittling it it down
the deck. I think Daff's a little more
appealing to me than Purdy just because I think if you get some
you could heard of, you're competing with like 3 teammates
pretty hard DAC. Obviously you're competing with
Pollard and Ferguson in addition to Lamb, but we've just seen
some like, you know, 400 yard, 5 touchdown games from DAC that he
could get there with CD still putting up like, you know, 22 a
game or something. Well, yeah, and the way, like a
guy, Kittle and Debo can sometimes separate in a way from
Debo. Whereas like the big cooks in
Ferguson games are generally like DAC is just slinging it
everywhere. And they're not separating from
him, right? That's a good point.
This is, this is the question I've been thinking about easy
talking about Josh Allen ownership coming down because of
these weather issues, and I think it's a really interesting
thing. We were talking about it with
the Badge Bros earlier as it pertains to the underdog contest
where everyone who takes Josh Allen is, if they're doing it
right, they're just taking one quarterback.
But if this is some like weather apocalypse game and he scores 14
points here and none of these Josh Allen teams advance despite
the Bills winning, you're like in the.
I mean, that's a really shitty spot to be in, but in this
contest you're aren't you just more concerned about one of his
teammates not separating in a really big way in A1 game?
Low scoring, like if James Cook has 150 yards and two TDs in
advance is Then you start to get a little worried about having
Josh Allen as your quarterback. And the his biggest competition
is the guys going to play in the AFC Championship.
So to me it's just like it it the the whole thing in in the
FFPC is do they beat the Ravens, like do they go on and beat the
Ravens or not? Yeah, and I think.
I I was saying. To you guys in in chat earlier
too. Eat a little bit of a Homer
take, but I actually think like the weather stuff helps him
separate from his teammates a little bit more, at least from
Diggs and Kincaid to an extent. Cook, you can definitely see
like the running game, but like, Josh Halen's gonna run a lot.
And you know, his touchdown equity in these types of games
is pretty high. Obviously if it's a complete
disaster, which is a problem, then you know it.
It could be. But if it's like a mild
disaster, Allen's scoring expectation comes down a few
points, but like Diggs's comes down even more.
So yeah. Did you make any of those Naji,
Naji plus Bill's hard fade? I don't have it in me.
The guy, the guy wearing a Bill's hoodie doesn't have that
in him. Pat, did you make any ownership
tweaks to the Bill stuff because of the weather?
I just did actually, 'cause I was going to ask you guys, I I
'cause I'm starting to feel like maybe this is all kind of
swinging back towards Lamar Chalk in a bigger way, 'cause
everyone's first thought was Lamar Mega Chalk, and then it
was like, but Allen four games. That's actually really fun.
But I've I've heard stuff, you know, where people are like, you
know, I actually think Lamar's a really great play, given that
he's not going to get out of control, and I feel that way
too. And yeah, if that fourth game
isn't a super appealing reason to play Allen, then you have the
whole thing that we've been talking about all week of Stefan
Diggs, James Cook and Dalton Kincaid versus Zay Flowers.
Gus Edwards and Isaiah Likely and Isaiah likely just got a
huge hole blown in his appeal. So.
And Gus Edwards was never that appealing.
James Cook always was much more appealing I think.
And then Zay Flowers is not just not that fun of a clique.
So I've been trying, you know, I've got Justin Tucker still up
at 10% and that creates a 13% total fate on the the Ravens
which is super high for a one seed.
But I just think it's because people don't want to like, deal
with having to click flowers. So they'll just bet against the
Ravens if they're not going to take Lamar.
But maybe they just take Lamar, you know, that would be one way
to kind of avoid that. Well, I mean, Lamar comes in
super high. Yeah, I think it's gonna be
Polar. I think you're gonna see like it
should be like 50% Lamar, 25% DST, 25% Tucker.
Like I I think the skill position players are getting
mega squeezed on the Ravens. I I don't think we could have.
50% fade of the one seed. I just don't think half the
field can do that. You mean a?
You mean a soft fade? Yeah.
Basically, play Baltimore to
lose. I just, I I don't see how
people, I mean, they're so. Good.
You know and like you don't want to have to bet on them.
To like Tucker is for as good as Tucker is, you don't want two
games of them. You need the Browns to come in
and beat them. And I don't think half I.
I agree. With you.
But if the market thought the Ravens were so good, Lamar would
be 75% off. I do think the.
That's what I'm saying. Maybe.
I think Lamar probably goes up.
I could see the soft fade on Baltimore survive two games,
obviously not into the Super Bowl, and other people kind of
think that. I could definitely see the soft
fade higher than expected, which would make zay flowers like kind
of interesting, but. I think, yeah, I mean, Zay's
going to be like 15% and Andrews is going to catch at least like
5%, just 'cause he's practicing. And I think Gus I.
Don't think, I don't think. How can you play Andrews?
You're not getting the first game out of him.
I don't think anyone's playing Andrews.
You don't think anyone? 'S zaya I think he can even get
to. Zaya.
No, I haven't won. What's your zay ownership at?
Right. Nineteen.
Well, I'm I'm currently as we talk, I'm raising Lamar
significantly but I I still haven't been 19 with Lamar at 60
now. This is all.
Just my backdoor plan gets you to raise Lamar.
So I'm like, well, we got one. More job, you know that is that
is what's happening. So I'm I'm just gonna lower
Lamar down to 58. Let me let me ask you a
question, Dink, on some of these like decisions on say, if you're
playing a player. In a in a loss, like how much do
you want to get in the projections on this single week
stuff? Because I feel like a lot of
that isn't necessarily discussed because everyone kind of views
it from like the macro landscape.
Are they win or losing? Are they getting 2 games?
Are they getting one? But I haven't.
Heard a ton of talk of like, OK, how does Dallas Gotter actually
project versus Devonta Smith if A.J.
Brown is out? Yeah.
And I think what we've talked about a lot in the past in in
these shows is when you're playing those spots to lose that
you know players gonna are from a team that is going to be
chalky in terms of they're gonna have funnel ownership to a
skilled player in the first round.
Even though we're expecting them to lose that, we're often.
That's kind of the time that we start talking about the
projections in week one and trying to understand kind of the
differences in the ownership versus the differences in the
projections that we're getting in those spots.
And I think that's kind of the the best use case for it.
But I also think there's like as it as we were talking through
the Baltimore stuff, the thing that's so fascinating about this
contest is just constantly having to compare guys to their
teammates. And as you're talking through
the Baltimore stuff like I'm thinking man, ultimately like if
your decision is Allen versus Lamar at a quarterback position.
If you're doing like one line up in this thing because ultimately
like you're playing one of those two teams to get to the Super
Bowl. If you're playing the Allen
side, like where do you go on the Ravens side?
And if most people are going to go to kicker or or full fade, my
first thought is like, man, defense is kind of interesting
in that spot for the Ravens because they could have a really
strong game that they win against Cleveland where they
shut them down, keep Cleveland kind of in check naturally,
their defense scores. Well, maybe it's a Gus game
that, you know, is fine for one week but doesn't really impact
the position as a whole during the course of the the the
contest. And then you get a second game
against Josh Allen, who is probably good for a few points
just with sacks and turnovers, even if even if they're able to
get past the Ravens. And so, like, I think there's
some weird iterations just on that team specifically because
they spread things out so much and because it's so like the
opportunity cost at the skill positions is so much higher than
the opportunity cost of the defense that the Ravens defense
is like, I'm in a little bit of a mind meld here, but maybe
interesting even if you're expecting them to win a game but
not advance to the Super Bowl. Jacob Sanderson had called them
out early in the week as his favorite play.
And I I think I think it's really intriguing because I do
think Tucker is going to be, you know, the the way and most
people play it right? It's it's Tucker.
Like, if you're like, I'm going to fade the Ravens, you're
almost not even thinking that much further about it.
You're like, I don't play Justin Tucker 'cause that's a sweet way
to take care of kicker. Does the weather narrative
become so overwhelming that they start worrying about Justin
Tucker in two? Two weeks from now, I'm.
Telling you don't put anything fast, the weather grows for
getting their. Panties in a bunch, That's.
Fun The FFPCDST scoring's really volatile, too.
Where like if Baltimore played Cleveland in Baltimore, you
know, and they just dominated that game like that that that
score be the highest DST score without, you know, any points
the next week, you know, you get Flacco on the road in Baltimore,
I mean, they're probably gonna have a pretty good match up no
matter what, you know? What do you think?
The What do you think? If, if we were taking out the
teammates part of it and like the optimal lineup part about it
and like you just summed the defensive points at the end of
the week, like what are we, What are at the end of the contest?
What are we projecting like the highest scoring defense for?
And like how? How?
Like how viable is it to score in one game in?
In FFPC it's usually like I remember last year it was like
14 or 13 because you don't get a lot of point dolphins.
It was dolphins. Last year.
And they did score at TD so that so you know you get the, you get
the take away in the TD and you often get the eight point play
there and then a couple other you know takeaways or one other
take away and a few sacks. It's usually the low.
It's just over 10. Between 10 and 15 is the high
the my recollection. Loud segment of it, Dink is like
after 13 points, nothing matters, right?
Like, yeah, Yeah, it's wild, yeah.
Yeah. No, no, Baltimore, Baltimore
defense is kind of interesting to me on the on Josh Allen teams
specifically, for sure, yeah. But that's I think where you get
to a really high. So now I've gotten it up to 15%
since we started talking. But I mean that that's not,
that's not how this contest is usually played.
Usually people go with the one seeds and the the teams that
have a really high chance of making the Super Bowl.
Like last year, the Chiefs were at 1% total fade, Eagles at 3%,
Bills at 1%, 49ers at 2%. So you're just like you normally
don't see that at all. I think it'll be a little
different this year just because of how you have to, you know,
just because of the way the Ravens set up, as we've
discussed. But like, how different is the
question I'm I'm wrestling with Because I don't.
I don't think, like if it starts to feel like, man, I really just
don't want to play any other Ravens other than Lamar rather
than all the field kind of flocking to defense and kicker.
I think we'll just see Lamar come in higher than we're
thinking. Yeah, I mean the DST play is
definitely interesting as Ding talks it through to like if you
think again in an Allen lineup, you're playing Bill C with the
Super Bowl. If you think they can get there
in two games, then you sort of maybe play both sides too of
like Houston, Cleveland and you free roll the upset of one game
of Baltimore, you know in addition to that.
I do like that. You do.
You play both sides of Houston, Cleveland, fade Baltimore.
And it's like I don't know who's beating them, but someone is.
You probably play Tyreek too, you know, just so that.
Everybody's. Yeah, you got it covered.
Yeah, three ways. Yeah, you might as well.
It's like a little bit too sort of safe in at first glance, but
you know you don't. If you're predicting something
as big as the one seed loses in round one, you might as well
keep all of your your bullets live.
Yeah, you could play Miami fade, I guess with AKC player and just
hope Miami loses and then Baltimore has to play it.
Would suck if Baltimore lost to Miami, though.
And now you're like, yeah, for sure.
You know, you might. I think you just played Tyreek.
Or a Chan maybe. Yeah, let Dink.
Did you get a chance to look at all at the ownership projections
for this for, like, the most popular place?
Liani sent them to me somewhere in here I just have.
I have not looked at them deeply.
I was. I was gonna try to get a little
established 1,000,000 good shock, bad shock and see if you
had any bad shock that stands out to you at the the top of the
ownership. Yeah.
Let me take a peek now as as we're going through.
So it's this this contest is just like constantly putting my
brain in a pretzel with like the thing I would say like, so if
we're just going by team in terms of like just scrolling
through each team. Yeah, right off the bat, like
the if, if this Laporta stuff holds, obviously I'm not like
it's not it's not chalk. But like I I I guess I at the
tight end spot. That one's confusing me a little
bit. Is it just Kelsey is like
everybody just gonna play Kelsey?
In Joku. I think in.
Joku, this is what we're. Wrestling with Yeah.
Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
OK. My take last night was there's
so much anti Kelsey sentiment and so much positive Pacheco
sentiment that Pacheco could flip Kelsey and the Joku could
become the chalk tight end. There's also a lot of positive
brown sentiment right there, like or maybe I'm just consuming
too much legendary upside content.
I don't know. But but I mean, there's a lot of
positive brown sentiment on being able to upset Houston or
not upset Houston, but move on past Houston and then give
Baltimore a really good game. So that makes sense to me, that
Njoku would be well above Kelsey.
I I don't. I don't have it like.
That be above but I. I have Njoku 29, Cooper 34.
Pete got me to flip that last night, and I flipped it back
today, but partly because who's? In your ear.
That has more weight than my thoughts, Pat.
Honestly, honestly, the brown stuff is what triggered it
because that creates more Goddard and that allows you to
come off 'cause I think if you're just deciding between
even a tight end premium Cooper lit up this Texans defense in
Week 16, like I don't, I don't think that's that's lost on
people. They want to try to recapture
that that spike week, you know so if you're if you don't need
to cover the position then I think you just pick Cooper more
often than not as a flex and gotter helps fill some of those
tight end percentage points. And then yeah, I have Kelsey 30
or 45% because I mean it's Travis, Kelsey in tight end
premium. I think I'm counting on the
boomers to come through for me here.
That's why I think. They're wrong.
I think a boomer looks at the two V2 and they fucking love the
Najoku Pacheco side. I mean, the joke is better I.
Think they're going to be closer than you have it.
I think Kelsey. I think Kelsey had, but I
probably have it closer. My immediate in looking at this
is I want to put in Joku, even if it's a flex over Cooper and
every lineup that I do and I had, I like.
That taking like if people are gonna click Cooper more like
playing Kelsey and Njoku in some lineups is interesting.
That's what I'm saying. I think on Wednesday and I have
our I've been making lineups and I just made what Leonie that
literally does that I made two lineups and one of them has that
I want to put a Joku in. Like every I put him in both of
these lineups, like he was so consistent for the last five or
six weeks that he played. Omari had one explosion game,
one other solid game, and then go look at his game, lock.
The rest of it is not that impressive, and Djoko's been.
Very. Not the franchise record.
And it's nothing. The I do think the just the
total frequency of two tight end lineups is going to be at all
time lows. Just even having 2-2 tight ends
in your lineup will probably already send you on a pretty
unique path. I agree.
Yeah, and I have it projected like that.
It's much lower than usual. But there's a real there's an
interesting discussion there because I think you can do it
with Kelsey and Joku, 'cause I think those are the 2 premium
tight end plays. I think any other tight end play
loses some luster if you play them in a more than one tight
end, 'cause part of what you're doing is you're saying if Kelsey
and Joku both fail, they're just the best tight end that fills
that one tight end spot. Like, I don't think it makes a
lot of sense to be flexing Dalton, Kincaid, or potentially
even Goddard. I think you you want those guys
the math and the constraint of needing a tight end to help.
Goddard, I think Goddard you you got to start directly comparing
to teammates then at that point like, and I could see got like
if AJ Brown's out and Devonta Smith has a bad game.
Yeah, you know. Well, that's why I like Schultz
so much, 'cause I don't think it's that crazy for him to
separate from his teammates. Yeah, I like the Houston guys.
Yeah, I mean, we talked about playing both sides of the only
Tampa Bay, but both sides of Cleveland, Houston.
It's not just teammates, it's it.
It's if he loses, he has to be one of the top two scoring skill
position players of all the six teams that lose.
Or if they win, then he has to separate over multiple games.
Those are the only two options. You can't separate one game
without also beating skill guys. I don't know.
It has to be like Tyree Kill, right?
It's not. It's not.
Separating from six teams. It's separating from the other
teams that are like hard and soft faded, yeah.
Yeah, there's six losers on an opening weekend. 2 skill guys
from those are required. He has to be one of the top two.
So he has to beat Tyree Kill. He has to beat, you know, some
of those guys as well. Unless Miami defense, of course.
A touchdown, you know, or yeah. Yeah.
But it's all tricky, though. It's defensive kicker coming.
To play. So I adjusted the ownership
projections on these tight ends. I wanna see what you guys think.
Glad I got back in your ear. Can you share my screen key?
Yeah, as you're pulling this up, I did just check like so in the
in the underdog pick em. Both Najoku and Kelsey set at 5
1/2 receptions for their line. Kelsey's at 57 1/2 receiving
yards, and Najoku's at 54 1/2. Like basically identical.
The I I I don't like Fading CD too much, but I do like the
Ferguson play a little bit, making sure you have a Ram skill
player. I'm kind of hoping you get a
loss in Ferguson. You mean Packers?
Or Packers. Yeah, sorry, Packers skill
player, which isn't gonna be owned much.
You. Know well would that be a single
tight end or you do you like that in?
That be single tight end I would want that I I'm I'm with you in
general gretcheck. I don't want a lot of two tight
ends. I I do think there's some routes
where it's interesting just cause the field's not gonna do
it at all. But yeah, Ferguson for me would
be like if you want him to compete with CD like that's
that's. That's why, yeah.
That's why I wanted to ask that question, 'cause I feel like
he's a great example of one where I would want him to be a
single, too. That's that's a great example of
that. So Greg, Greg, your thought
process on the single tight end is basically you're hoping that
the tight end position is just not not, it's a fate of the
tight end position generally. So Goddard, Schultz, Ferguson,
these guys are like single tight end only type builds.
Or the ones that perform over multiple games have other
teammates really crushing at other positions, right?
So Kelsey could still be good over multiple games, but Pacheco
really runs hot and you need him as a running back.
And so the math works essentially that they're the
only legit like one and done tight end.
Like if they put up a 1520 point game as a one and done the math
might work out where like they they make sense as the single
tight end and there's no other tight end that that fits in.
That makes for 60 is getting you to 15, which is kind of crazy,
but like you're you're live with a six for 60 on a loser.
So so here's this new run here of the tight end stuff or the
Cleveland KC stuff. Kelsey's still ahead, but just
by 2%. What do you guys think of this?
Njoku 35, Cooper 28? Pacheco now becomes the chalk
play on the two teams of 44. Yeah, I think.
This seems good to me, yeah? Yeah.
Early in the week, we kind of thought Klyron would be really
chalky running back. But I do think it makes sense to
kind of have that a little more even between him and Pacheco,
which you already kind of had a little bit before you tweaked
this, but. Do you think there's any chance
for Cooper? Being higher, I could see Cooper
being higher and just maybe. Just the deepest thing to do.
If it was Cooper higher, it would be Cleveland D coming
down, probably. Yeah, maybe not.
Maybe not. Maybe that's right.
Then Cleveland D's probably gonna be pretty chalky, and you
basically have nothing else. So.
People might wanna pick the weather DS.
Right. Yeah, Pittsburgh DST is probably
gonna be really high, I think. Really, 'cause I came off that
with the TJ Watt stuff. The news.
Everybody keeps saying, but you don't have TJ Watt.
You can't, you know. TJ Watt you can't play Steelers
D maybe? You maybe you guys are right, I
was just. I think, I think toilet phone
shitter Bros are just like I want literally nothing to do
with the Steelers and not thinking through like how that
defensive element works. Yeah, that makes sense.
Yeah, I think this look this looks like spot on to me as far
as Najoku pacing, Pacheco pacing and yet Kelsey still coming in
higher than the Najoku. Like, I think that's threading
the needle in about the right way there.
OK. All right.
I'm trying to think what are there any other kind of spots
that have been in flux that are or or are there any other spots
Pat, you've been kind of really agonizing over?
Well the the Rams one I think is interesting to talk through
because as Leonie said early in the week we thought that and I
stopped sharing but I shouldn't have.
I'll, I'll bring that one up. The early week sentiment was
Kyron chalk and Kyron kind of like bad chalk easy to avoid
chalk anytime. It's super obvious we we don't
even need to play this chalk it. It might mean that it's not
actually that big a chalk, and I think Puka is probably where
people go to as they move off of Kyron a little bit.
And I think if this Kelsey number's right, then this Kyron
number might be a little too high still.
Because Kyron, I think to a large degree, is just hoping
fill a weak running back position rather than a play
people are super excited about, especially at ownership.
Through the. Yeah, because what you're saying
is that people aren't going to like the Chalk build won't have
Kyron, Pacheco and CMC, that they'll just say, I already
filled it with Pacheco, I'll play Puka.
Yeah, or or why not play Kelsey in this lineup?
Because I don't need Pacheco here.
I like that logic a lot. This is tricky and it does seem
like it's going to be really high on those three.
Like you have very little for everything else combined, fades
and everything. I will say the puka and cup
combined here you have at 54 and I think 54 puka and cup combined
compared to 41%. Kyron puts it into perspective
for me a little better. Where I don't think he gets much
lower than that, 'cause I do think there's still an element
where a lot of people are going to say I don't want to pick
between the receiver, I'm going to just take Kyron.
And he did just score 3 touchdowns in the fantasy
championship. Too.
That's true. That's true.
Yeah, there's kind of a point at which it's like, well, I don't
have to think too hard. And I also think there's it is
the FFPC. Like people aren't gonna be real
bummed if they have, you know, Kyron Williams, Isaiah Pacheco
and CMC, like, you know, or maybe even throw, Like you might
see some line UPS with those guys.
Plus Rashad White. Like, it's like, dude, I can
play this. Four.
I would. I would.
Still probably have Kyron north of 45, closer to 50.
I think people, even though the market is definitely on board
with Puka 1A Cooper One BI, still think the psychological
thought process is like, man, what if I go Puka and fucking
Cooper Cup, winds back the clock and has the nuke game and I
picked it wrong? You know, like I think they will
both kind of cannibalize each other a little bit in a way.
It's also like, it's also the way that I'm feeling while
looking through these teams and these line UPS and stuff is I
have a lot of guys at wide receiver that I'm like, oh that
that's fun to plug in. I don't have a lot of guys at
running back that's fun to plug in.
So like it it feels like if you have a team that has both
options that people are going to be like, well, I've got wide
receivers on other teams that I feel good about.
Like I can get wide receivers in into these line UPS.
Whereas running back it feels like a pretty small pool of guys
that feel exciting to to click on so.
And and and especially when like if you compare within this own,
within this game, right, like Gibbs versus Aman Raw in terms
of what you're giving up at projection there compared to
what you're giving up with Kyron versus Puka or Cooper Cup.
Like it feels very clear to me that people would choose Kyron
and Aman RA as opposed to like Gibbs and Cup or Gibson Puka or
whatever. Just seems like that's the way
they'd. Go.
What do you. I agree.
I'm what I'm wondering is maybe if they go Amen RA and puka and
play CMC Pacheco. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
But people aren't playing more than what.
What's the line of construction you have?
How many? Two. 2 running backs.
Yeah, 22 wide receivers, 2 or 4 flexes tight end quarterback.
Yeah. How many flexes do you think?
Like, what's the Flex ownership you have at running back right
now? It's up to .7.
Feels probably close to right. Yeah.
I don't, Yeah. I don't think people, I don't
think many people are gonna play like 4 running backs line UPS.
No, yeah. Yeah.
No, honestly, I feel like it feels a little high to me, like
I I would like to have this closer to 2.5, which is where
I'm like no there. Will be enough people that, like
Peter said, do 4 to offset it. Yeah, you probably.
There There's one guy in an Adrian Peterson jersey who's
playing CMC Kyron Rashad White and Pacheco.
Like dude. Does you see some?
Only thing I disagree with you there, Pete, is that there's
only one guy in that jersey. I want to ask you guys, like,
I'm looking at this and I know that the RAM skill players are
super concentrated. They're awesome scorers.
Still seems like a pretty low total fade percentage for a team
that's, you know, an underdog in round one.
It does. If we play double, you know, if,
if you're thinking to play double up on Houston, Cleveland,
double up on Philly, Tampa Bay, you know that fade's got a It's
got to come from Miami, yeah. It's not saying.
It's not saying the Rams players are all going to suck.
It's saying they lose and one of them isn't one of the top 2
scores of the losers, right? This.
We've talked about this in the past years, but like we ended up
going to DK. Metcalf was our big example last
year where nobody wanted to play Seahawk because they were very
likely to lose. I think they have the Niners
right in in the first game, but Metcalf had the potential to
outscore all of the other losers basically and he had like a 30
point game. He was one of the two highest
scoring skill guys in of the six teams that lose in Wild Card
weekend. So that's the way to think
through it. If you're fading this, it's
like, yeah, it's a great match up with the Lions.
Yeah, it's hyper concentrated. Yeah, all three of these guys
are really good, but if it's a little bit spread around between
the three of them, they it's possible they're not one of the
top two scoring players of all six teams that lose in opening
weekend. If like Puka's puka could score
23, if Mar gets to 10, you know you're talking about a 13 point
gap. Like that's that's not huge, you
know, assuming they lose. Right.
That's the other side of it, yeah.
You know somebody else? 'S.
Might not even have to match puka.
They might not even have to match if they if.
If they're. If his kicker does really well,
that's true, yeah. It's it is tough though because
you get the opportunity with the Rams to play Puka or Cup, which
is how you would prefer to play the Rams in a loss.
So you're getting both guys as the not primary chalk on that
team. So it's you know, be a little
different if like Kyron was our pivot in the loss scenario or
it's like well why not just fade him completely because is Kyron
going to have a huge game and a loss anyway?
But is could Cooper Cup have an absolute huge game and a loss?
Of course he could. Same for Puka.
Yeah. I don't think you do it a lot.
It's just, I mean 5% total on a team that's.
I agree with that. Yeah, I mean it is, it's kind of
wild, like it makes no sense. But we saw this last year with
the with the Chargers, they were 6% total faded.
And I think it's some ways like the Rams are kind of more
appealing, 'cause last year's basically it was like Echolor is
kind of where it all went to and and we've got a couple really
interesting pivots here. The Nuts was like a 1% owned
Cameron Dicker. Last year, yeah.
Yeah. Like a 1% owned camera Dicker
and a 1% owned Miami DST was like.
This is also the result of the weather situations though,
right? It's just like there's gonna be
at least, you know, two weather games that two teams are losing
from that we're expecting kind of lower scoring environments
already. So if we're always comparing the
losing score versus the other six losing scores, now we're
comparing a losing score from the Rams to three other losing
scores. If we think that the losing
score from the Rams is very likely to be higher than the
best score from a losing team in those two weather games, and
that's where it starts to get a little bit this.
I think that's why you're getting the concentrated play
side of the Rams in in addition to the Lions defense just being
an absolute train wreck. It just it starts to become
difficult. I think.
I think the kicker play is more interesting to me than like a
full fade of of. Yeah, I think so, 'cause you get
more outs that way. Like.
You do you think out the defense randomly scores or the kicker
kicks 4 field goals? Do you think most people when
they click Kyren, you know, I, we know a lot of people aren't
thinking through like the soft fade and all that element, but
do you think they're playing Kyron to win?
Or they're just saying I don't care 'cause I'm.
Playing, I don't care 'cause they got a monitor on the other
side. 'Cause I'm just wondering if are
you thinking like like, I'm curious, Leonie, from a
projection standpoint, if you could do a projection for the
Rams verse the 49ers in the divisional round, like how do
you think you would have that? Like would Kyron still out
project the receivers? I mean, we our full postseason
projections, we have Kyron behind the wide receivers.
Is that baking in anything specific to the 49ers?
It's baking. In their likely spread on, you
know, future games. It's not like hyper specific to
the the defense that they're facing, but it's kind of a guess
at what their team total and their spread, you know, would be
in these games. I'm just like put like in my
brain. I'm like, if I'm playing the
Rams to upset and then go to the 49ers, like I I want a wide
receiver there because the wide receivers can get there in a win
and will be. Well, that's why.
Game trip versus the Niners. Kyron's almost the perfect
running back to play in a loss. And I think that's that's almost
what people are saying because it gets so much Green Zone work
and he could score 2 touchdowns in a lot like he could.
He could score their only two TV's.
He could, he could be the the only guy who scores for them and
they lose, you know, 30 to 17. They can all score in any
environment. I mean, they're so concentrated
and they use those three guys I, you know, I think win loss.
For sure, I think. Loss is a little bit better for
the receivers, but they they can all kind of score in any.
That's not true for every running back, though.
Like, not every running back can score in a loss like Kyron.
I mean, I think you can talk yourself into Kyron in a way you
can't for other receivers or running backs.
The flip from Kyron. I'm on Rod A Cup.
Gibbs, though, is like pretty sick ownership.
You know, leverage wise, you're definitely gonna see some
projected points on the Detroit side because, you know, I'm on
Rod's. You know, I'll project Gibbs by
a few points, but it's not like an insane amount of points that
you're giving up. Yeah.
And again, like the, the reason this is so tough, like it's
reflected even in the underdog weekly markets.
You know, Amanra goes 2, Kyron goes 3, Cooper Cup goes 5 and
Cup goes 7. Like, like they're they're all
right there. Like everyone is bullish on all
of these guys and that order is reflected even in in Pat's.
Ownership Sorry, what's the So this is the like Battle Royale?
The weekly Yeah, for just the wild card weekends, Monra, 2,
Kyron 3, Puka, 5, Cooper, 7, Amari and Tyriq are sandwiched
in between the Rams. Got it.
One other spot that I think is interesting.
So I actually lowered you you your last argument of you know,
the fact that you want the the Rams in that round two.
I think people will will think through that of you attack the
you attack the Lions through the air and then I'm going to San
Francisco. I'd rather have a wide receiver.
So I kind of, I don't think I've raised Kyron up 1% from where I
had him at the start of the night, but basically.
Where I love that, when I can get you to redo all your
projections for 1% of my takes. So this is this is one of the
other spots 'cause if Kyron's staying, basically where I have
him, Pacheco's moving up. Does white come down at all?
He's one of those other fairly comfy clicks other than, you
know, CMC being the ultimate comfy click.
But for run running back 2, White's very much in the mix,
but Evans just gives you that spike week potential in a good.
He's the one I was thinking of as the counter to the point I
was trying to make about Kyron, where people feel comfortable
with the Rams still scoring and Kyron's still getting goal line
work and potentially still scoring one to two touchdowns
even in a loss. I feel like White is the the
opposite of that. Where I think people think the
Eagles there's there's risk or fear that the Eagles can just
win and potentially win big and win with ball control, and
Tampa's offense just doesn't do anything.
Like, you're like, they were horrible, even though Philly's
defense is bad. I don't know.
I mean, that's just sort of like the sentiment that I get.
I don't know that that's actually valid.
Yeah. I was pitching running back, At
least you know. Yeah.
I will obviously this is full point PPR, but just to give you
like Evans is going seven spots ahead of Rashad this week and
Kyren, Pacheco and Gibbs are all going ahead of him too like and
obviously full point half point that's big for.
Gibbs is definitely interesting, yeah.
But I just like I've been saying it like the the market sentiment
on Rashad White is never high. Like no one is ever super
excited to to click him. Yeah, he's AI mean.
I think him and Evan's honesty like aren't that crazy.
Different of place. I think Rashad White's a great
play, but I I just don't think the field is even as excited.
Yeah, he might be a good running back pivot, you know, to get off
those other guys. Someone here mentioned Godwin
too. Godwin, 2% just.
Godwin. That's yeah, that's actually
wrong. I need to get that up.
I brought that. I brought that up earlier, and I
I was just gonna ask that again. Leonie, You like that too?
I mean, if he's I, he came on really strong at the end of the
season. Yeah.
Levitan tweeted about how since his wife complained on social
media, you know he's been getting hit with all the
targets. There you go.
I didn't know that that analysis.
By the By the way, I feel like while we're here and we're just
watching Karain change the projected ownership.
There's like a. There's like a Steve Kornacki
bit here where we could be like let's go to Karain live in
Philadelphia. What are the latest polls saying
we? Got to get him one of those
boards. In this speech, we're taking two
percentage points on Kaimi Fairbairn in Houston.
What do you seek, dude? We got, we got to fight it in
the ship chasing budget to get you one of these.
Boards. You too, man.
Speak. Speaking of which, shout out to
the the new YouTube members tonight on screen Right now we
do have Pat's ownership projections.
If you guys are legendary upside subscribers, you get access to
those. If you guys are in the ship
chasing Discord, it is pinned in that Channel.
You get access to that Discord by becoming a YouTube member,
and then you can just sync your Discord account and YouTube
member. There's instructions on how to
do that in the FAQ of the Deposit Kingdom Discord, which
there's a link in the show notes.
Yeah. So did you just bring Godwin up,
Pat, or are you doing that now? I brought Godwin up to 6%.
I took Mike Evans. He was up here at 36%, brought
him down Now. Now, Mark, he's down at 32%.
Now what I was thinking about is maybe actually taking him up
slightly higher to 33%. Now what that would do is it
would allow us to take Rashad White down to 20% becomes a very
interesting pivot play at that price.
Back to you, Pete. Yeah.
Thank you, Pat. Appreciate that.
Nice to have our finger on the pulse here with our FFPC
ownership correspondent Pat Korncki.
Dude got a lobster roll in him is, and it's just vibing
tonight. That a kombucha?
You were drinking too fast. It was, yeah.
And then they're gonna so. Fucking cliche, san.
Diego. On full San Diego, man.
One, one NFL season of the guys like, just full San Diego.
On air at the end of the season. Just a caricature.
Next thing you know, we're going to learn this guy as a Tesla or
something. Oh, let's see here.
What other games have we not discussed?
A ton here. I'm trying to think what have
we? Missed.
We haven't talked about Miami Green Bay.
Yes. One of the chats was talking a
little bit about Green Bay. Yeah, let's, yeah, let's talk
Green Bay. Pat, what did you have?
Yeah, pull up. Pull up the Green Bay ownership
from from what you had it there. Yeah.
So Green Bay fade came down a little bit for me.
I mean, they're still pretty high, but I think at one point I
had them up at 84%. They're down to 77 now, just as
like that game. There's lots of like you want to
fade Philly a little bit more. You know, there's like the
weather concerns. I think people people have
talked about fading Miami. We talked about how fading
Baltimore a little more unconventional fades.
Normally these seven seeds get faded very high.
The Steelers I have hit 94% total fade so they're definitely
they're fading that mold but but the the Packers down to 77% gets
a little more Aaron Jones. I took Jaden Reed down.
I think with Christian Watson looking like he'll play, then
that makes him a little bit shakier.
And Jones is just the guy I've heard everyone talk about.
You know, he's kind of the the guy that we're you're actually a
little bit excited about in part because he gives you that
running back to pivot that truly will be contrarian and then lets
you do other things with your line up you you don't feel as
constrained like you. You can definitely go to Puka
and cup in those line UPS. You don't need Kyron at all.
And just I just freaking love the Jones play because of what
James Cook did to Dallas a couple weeks ago, because of
what Jones has done in Texas when he's gone back.
He played at U Tip. There's all these little
narratives that are tied in there.
And then you don't have to pick the receiver.
You just you just playing in gents.
Love it. I mean, 12% is low for the
running back situation on this slate.
And most likely, no AJ Dillon. That's the other thing.
No AJ Dillon. So I I wonder if maybe it's more
like 15, seven or something between Jones and Reid.
What do you guys think about that?
I could see that. I still think Jones would be a
good play, but I I could definitely see how many people
play running back in flex though, like, I don't think your
white stuff's off. I don't really think your
Pacheco Carmen's off. Like we we could still average 3
running backs per team. I don't think would be
absolutely shocking. It wouldn't be.
I I think the general way people think it through though, is
Dallas Smash. And even if I want to play it as
like a shootout, then I'd rather play Jayden Reid, you know,
because then Jayden Reid can get there in victories, he can get
there in losses. And when you look at, you know,
the the Aaron Jones box score, he did have the five receptions.
Was it last week? But previous to that, like he
hadn't been getting a ton of work in the passing game and
it's he's just been like getting so many carries right now.
I just wonder if people get spooked like Dallas is up two
touchdowns. How?
How fed is Aaron Jones getting? 20 carries in 30 straight games.
It's kind of sick, but yeah, those are all.
I I like Aaron Jones. I'm just saying like how I'm I'm
putting myself in perspective of how people think about it.
I brought Jones down 2% from since Pete started talking.
I love that it really is. Like a lot of the coal mining
squares I. Love it's a rounds of horn at
this point. And Pete talked to me to see
John straight. It reads a great play, too.
I think Pete, you're the one who said on the on the first show
that I was on this week. So I guess Wednesday that this
is a game that Green Bay's gonna be faded way too high.
I mean, the 64 percent is the thing to highlight.
Like that's too high for a Dome game with a high total.
We're expecting points like Green Bay's offense can be
efficient. This feels like a one of those
really great, like the Metcalf from last year.
We were talking about one of those really great opportunities
to potentially get one of the high skill position scores in a
loss. It's scary, right?
Because you're we've talked endlessly about how you want
your two hard fades, like need to be from teams that lose and
then your two soft fades, you really want those to be from
teams that lose. And then you take the Packers
off the board because you're probably in most of these line
UPS that you play Aaron Jones or Jaden Reed.
You're probably also playing CD Lamb.
You're not just betting on the on the Packers to win the game,
you're just betting on to be a shootout.
So now that means I need to go predict another game correctly
which is tough, you know? And that's how I think people
will ultimately probably just pick the Packers to lose because
it's it makes their lives so much easier.
But I do agree that playing this game is a shootout, and then
doing the difficult work of predicting the bracket is gonna
give you an edge. It'll give you a big edge if you
get it right. Yeah, I could see that a lot of
people put Aaron Jones in and then as they fill out the rest
of their line up, they circle back and.
They take out Aaron Jones. This is gonna be an Aaron Jones
lineup, is the first thing you say and by the end you go, yeah,
it's the worst love you got Aaron Jones.
Miami for Jones? I don't know.
I don't know one fact. Aaron Jones has played the
Cowboys three times in his career.
He's rushed for 100 yards and at least one TD in all three.
Six total touchdowns. At least 130 total yards in
every one of those games. Just saying.
Guy like CSU rattling off college football by IS.
It. Too even the lead.
For like 8 years like he didn't have these different humans
that. He was one of them, was his
first 100 yard game of his career in his rookie season,
which is when it's a monster. I was just standing.
I was like, I don't know what's happening.
Like 8 college games, right? A lot.
Jennings been grinding the Silva tape where you just listed off
college stats and awards and it passes this analysis.
I mean, we can go to Aaron Jones, Utah Stats.
I can keep this Dallas U Texas theme going.
Dude, in high school you ran for 360.
In high. School.
It's high school Texas Stats. I love it.
Yeah, I. Because if you think about right
the Pat, you have the biggest full fades right as Green Bay
and Steelers who are the biggest dogs.
Yeah of the weekend. And so like even just not full
fading those. Like if you do the soft fade,
Steelers D you do, you could do a soft fade with Andres who you
have here or on, or Aaron Jones or Reed.
Like you're already getting very unique because the field is
going to want to full fade those guys at a pretty big clip.
Yeah, yeah, I've got both these as hugely faded Pittsburgh, even
more so. I mean, 82% fade, 10% defense,
3% Pickens, 2% Boswell, 1% Harris, 1% Warren, 1% Johnson.
I'd probably take the over on my fade projection, you know,
'cause it's like, are people really?
We're really gonna get a full percent on Jalen.
Warren Yeah. The weather's gonna bring More
People to Pittsburgh D. Pittsburgh's D Maybe Yeah.
Yeah, maybe. Or position players, I mean the
the total, the total fade in soft fade is gonna be really
high. I love playing contrarian in
this contest and I'm like, I don't know if we're gonna play.
I don't know about Pittsburgh. Yeah, honestly, the one I would
play you, you guys probably know like it would be Naji and just a
game where the weather's bad and they run 35 times.
We we have to. Have it?
Couldn't you just say Pickens? Like, why can't you say?
No. Gun also brought up Naji, and
whenever Sean and Leone both bring up, something usually
hits. Pissed me off.
I mean, if you were to play them, I think do Naji.
Snow Games. We got to do 1 Naji.
Line give him 25 carries. Tomlin is.
We got to do 1 Naji. Line 25 Naji carries right now.
I'm fine full fade in Pittsburgh.
I'm just saying like if I were. And he's obviously the way you
did the excitement with which you just said Naji Snow game.
I don't even think I said those 3 words in that.
Order. No, no, Pete.
Yeah, he just went. I mean.
Do you guys, do we just do an all running back team for the
bit with Naji and like Chechno and all these fucking guys?
Aaron Jones, What? Let's I want to pull up this
question because I know some people are new to the contest.
Will one of you guys explain? So gamble Stein asking here is
there merit to fading the entire Steelers game?
Do one of you guys want to explain why you shouldn't be
double full fading 2 teams in the same game?
I'm going to grab. Beer.
All right. Because one of them is going to
win and you're going to get two games out of one team in that
situation. And very likely, even if I see
your point about Allen's upside side to the four potential
rounds, you think that the skilled players are not going to
do a lot other than Allen. So you're basically only getting
the other Buffalo game. It is logical, like it, I mean,
or like it's possible that like it could be that bad of a first
round game and like Allen runs for a couple touchdowns.
I just, I mean, I think it's so thin.
You need a really specific thing to hit.
Diggs and Cook are still gonna score like 5 to 10 points even
if it's bad and then one of them.
Play another game, yeah. One of them plays another.
So it's less about Ailon and more about like Diggs and Cooks,
possibly even Kincaid. It's possible.
I mean, we're talking about playing Baltimore DSD, being
live in two like, so it's possible you.
You basically need something like for that to work right.
The other teams that are full faded, let's say the Packers,
you would basically need like Jayden Reid to score like 30
points you know in a loss right? Like something like that, where
one of the full faded guys goes so nuke that even one of the
advancing teams. His players don't match him in
two games. Like that's the new you're.
Trying to spread and it's and even if you don't think it's two
full games, to Leone's point they're going to score at least
5 to 10 points and that's a pretty big boost to then also
another full game, right? Like if they have 15 now they're
at 20 to 25, right? Like it it'd be.
And that's a strong tour in the end.
Like even if it's one of the games is bad, two games is is a
lot more than one game is the way that it kind of adds up, I
mean. Definitely need one of the DSTS
and just hope that that DST. Just goes nuts.
I think that's your that's your angle.
If you want to. If you want a full fade one team
and play the DST from the other, I think that's a great or
completely logical play. But the full fade you don't you
don't want to do from that game. Any other spots you guys want to
talk before we build a line up here?
There's one guy I feel like I have to mention, just 'cause I I
like him a lot and we didn't talk about.
But like Devin Singletary for Houston looks like a good
running back pivot, you know? I don't know if something to go
ham on, but his ownership looks pretty low.
Damien Pierce barely touched the ball.
I don't even know if he did touch the ball in in Week 18.
Are we gonna play just all running backs?
Now. We're gonna want to speak.
Through Fades of the Chalk Running backs Ben.
OK. You will will you talk about the
Singletary projection a little bit 'cause you guys are way
ahead of market, Like even in the BR streets like Singletary's
barely getting drafted. Montgomery goes ahead of him.
Naji goes ahead of him. Cook, Pollard, all these guys go
ahead of him. What?
What's fueling the the Singletary love?
Yeah, it's a couple of things. First of all, he's been really
good. Like, he's been super solid.
And just the way Cleveland plays defense, I mean, the defense is
great overall. Sometimes they're sort of
convincing you to run when you shouldn't.
And like, it ends up being like a decent yards per carry thing
where they're not like totally shutting down the run game of
the opposing team. Who's he?
Trapped to buy again. Remember when we had we faded
him that year that he went on the run and then he had like a
really good one, huh? And.
Didn't you really want us to play him as well?
I wanted us to not play him at all.
Oh, oh. Yeah.
Isn't it crazy how every year his like the arc of his season
is the same trajectory where the team's like, we like Singletary
and then it's like, we don't and then it's like, fuck, we got to
go back to Singletary? He played 88% of the snaps in
the Week 18 Must Win game. Damien Pierce did not log an
offensive snap, so you just give a running back all the snaps.
And the other thing about this game, it's two point, It's a two
point spread, right? Like people are really high in
Cleveland, but it's it's a two point spread.
So it's hard to just be like, oh, they're going to get
crushed, like game script. Yeah, it could go bad and a
loss, but you know, if they win, you get him to two games and
he's pure workhorse running back.
That's pretty, pretty good. I actually love this play
because they'll probably try to attack through Singletary.
Like the They've been a pretty conservative offense, actually,
in a lot of their games this season.
Cleveland's a run funnel. I mean, it's a little tough
because the Browns have been so aggressive and Texans are pretty
bad against the past. But you know.
I like the Singletary stuff. I think when you think it
through, it's a little tough, right?
Because we know the Texans, they do want to run like they
absolutely want to run when they can.
But that's also a little game script dependent.
They'll they'll let Stroud throw a negative game script.
So this the Devon Singletary and a loss is actually like a little
harder. I mean, you got to run really
hot on touchdowns. It's like the Cam Acres play
probably from a couple years ago, whereas if they win and
then you're Singletary on the road in Baltimore, it starts not
to feel that great that that's the kind of the the tough needle
you're threading there, I think. But you could see Nico like,
just tanking in that game. So, you know, you get a You get
a touchdown from Singletary against Baltimore in round two,
You might be feeling pretty good.
You've also got 35% chance Miami wins and you're not playing
Baltimore round two. True, which you'd.
Prefer. But you know, you know it's it's
less likely but it's on the table.
I just think like sometimes these workhorse backs, like they
just get there and he's like projected for like at least for
right now passing for nothing probably would want him in A2
running back line up and then you take the Nico thing a little
bit off the table. Yeah, but yeah.
All right. Let's build a line up.
I just started building one. I don't it's going to work.
I have James Cook at tight end and Kyron Williams at wide
receiver. It's got 8 running backs on it.
It looks pretty solid, all the plays we've been talking about
all night. You see you built an 8 running
back line up. Yeah, it's not actually going to
work. There's I was trying to figure
out how many running backs we've talked about McCaffrey, Pacheco,
Kyron, James Cook, Singletary Gibbs, Aaron Jones, Rashad
White. And then I left CD Lamb.
And then we're not playing Tony, Paula.
Yeah, I mean you. You can't.
You can't play. You can play you.
Can play a lot, right guys? Yeah, you go stick.
You know what it It sucks that this is the state of fantasy
football, because eight years ago this would have been the
boomer off, though, And we are so far from this.
I didn't even have a Miami in there.
You got 8 chain, 8 chain in there.
See, to me, like the 8 chant in a loss thing, yeah is a really
nice sell, right? Because the Chiefs pass defense
is much better than the run defense teams elect to run on
him. And if you got most or any bit
banged up, 8 Chan is so explosive.
On a per touch basis like the 8 Chan and a loss stuff is is
pretty nice. And then Pacheco and a win, so
you can actually play running backs on both sides of that
game. It's perfect.
I don't think anyone's going to play Pacheco and HN in the in
the. I don't either.
That's a good point. Nobody will do that.
But it it, it actually makes sense.
Yeah. But but you're watching this
show it's called the running. Back lineup unless you're
baiting CNC. Yeah, probably.
It's probably a three running back, which is a weird way to do
a three running back lineup. Yeah, Dink, do you want to kick
us off? What what was your claim to
fame? Was it was it three or four
years ago? It was either winning the Millie
or putting Gronk in one of our. No, it was definitely Gronk.
God, the Millie was like decades ago.
Nobody remembers that. It was definitely Gronk.
It was on a Monday night too. They don't even do it like that.
Yeah, I mean, good luck. Good God, yeah, with an Eli
Manning stack of all things. Yeah.
So I don't have an, I guess my spiciest steak that we've put on
the show is is Baltimore D So it's Baltimore D.
Let's do it. We got one of those boomers who
thinks Lamar's a running back and can't.
Play on here. Well that was going to be the
other joke, right is that if if we want to do Beds 8 running
back roster, we just put in Lamar.
You got to pick which joke you're going to commit to, all
right, Leone? We're going to.
Go slightly out of order. For you.
So I can we we can go in order of the boxes.
No. Well, what if I told you that I
can change the boxes to make whatever order I want?
Oh no. Wow.
I really lost it all there. All right.
Anyone else want to complain about the position on fucking
Hollywood? Squares.
You had it ready too, you said ready.
Just in case I complain. All right.
I'm oh man, I I I mean go CMC. I want to see what you guys do.
I'll just go super boring CMC off the start.
Is that your flag plant? Dude, I just think he's a great
player in this. Contest No.
I've I've been the one picking chalk in all of our on
streamline up builds this week. So we we talked two things on
the stream. We talked if you're playing
Baltimore D, then you play all paths so that you have guys
live. And we also talked contrarian
Texans pivot. Last night it was Dalton
Schultz. This week's Devon Singletary.
All right. Gretch.
I'm going to take Josh Allen. Because there's no other options
for quarter, yeah. I was.
I was trying to keep it open like I was like Allen or Hertz
could have gotten spicy, but I think Allen makes more sense to
just directly correlate it. Yeah, yeah.
That's interesting. I I'm gonna try to send this
down a pretty wild path. I am going to work under the
assumption A.J. Brown isn't playing and I'm
gonna put Dallas Goddard in our tight end slot.
I love it. Are we?
Are we Are we sneaking or are we?
No. OK, no snake.
It's a third round reversal though, so.
Just, I'll go, I'll go CD, then I'll I'll go Leonie style and
punt to the more spicy options. Cooper Cop.
Did we say Goddard is more of one you playing a loss or was
that not necessary? I think I screwed that up.
Why? Well, Pat was kind of teeing us
up to play like all pads to the the Baltimore upset.
We just, we just took them off the.
We just took that off the table with our last two picks.
I think. Did we?
Why? Why?
He was talking about it on the AFC side, I guess.
I guess if you're fading, Tampa Bay, I guess you have.
You have to fade Tampa Bay. I guess you could still get
there. And fade and fade Detroit too,
yeah. We I don't know if we can fully
get there unless we fade Kansas City, but we could.
'Cause we need to play a brown and a dolphin.
Probably right. Why do Why do we have to fade
Kansas City? Well, if, if you did Path's
strategy of covering every single basis for the team that
could play Baltimore in round too.
You'd need Maya. 'Cause someone's beating
Baltimore in round too, so we want we want everyone alive.
All right, I'll take. Oh, you're up.
Sorry, I'm up. Singletary is already up.
Oh yeah. We, we're fading KC.
Got it. Got it.
No, we don't have to.
But I think I don't know. Sorry, whose pick is it?
Pat took Tyriq. OK.
And I tried to take in an eligible player at the same
time. All go with Goddard's tricky for
Njoku. Wait we don't want to play a
Steeler though? No, we are.
We Is that all paths? Steelers.
Steelers are all right. It's clue those Steelers are not
Steelers are losing when we have Allen, so we can't.
Oh, right, we have Allen. Exactly.
We. It's like, yeah, we got the
Ravens lost, right? So the Browns are the last one
we need to get in is is there another game we haven't done
anything from yet? The No, just the Browns.
And we don't have the other two. Spots We don't have Detroit yet.
We. Don't have the Bucks.
We don't have Detroit. We don't have Packers.
The Lions, Detroit Bucks, Lions, Packers.
Three flex and a place kicker. Chiefs.
And if, yeah. I think you did.
You definitely wanna play the The Brown, the Texan.
We have a Texan. First, sorry.
Sorry. I mean the.
I mean the Browns. Yeah.
I think it's Amari because I think when you play Goder he to
me strikes me as a one tight end guy.
So I'll, I'll say, Amari. Even though, like 10 seconds
before you said Amari, it's the longest Amari Cooper pick ever.
Quit Amari. Fuck off.
I was doing everything I could to not like Amari Cooper.
It's. Been a tough week for Bed.
It's been a tough week everybody, everybody calm down.
Everybody calm down. It's been a tough week for Bed.
If he needs a little extra time to get to Amari Cooper, let him
take his goddamn time. I almost, said Austin Safarian
Jenkins in. A huge dink there, dude.
I was about to take Jerome Ford just to avoid this.
Oh God. Cedric Toman.
Viable. I mean, we're.
Already Mega. You know he's not playing Monra
here. All right, it's back to Dink.
I played Romanra. All right.
OK, So Tampa Bay, KC, Pittsburgh.
You see, we're fading. Pittsburgh.
We're fading. So it's Tampa Bay and.
Green Bay We could fade Tampa Bay, too.
Tampa Bay and Green Bay, you could fade.
Tampa Bay, you could fade. Green Bay too.
You don't have to fade KC necessarily.
Got. You could play KC.
I think we could play KC, OK. You could play.
You could play rice. Or Pacheco.
Or Kelsey. You mean Kelly's still in
playing double? Yeah.
No man. Once we put Goddard in, it's the
most obvious and Hari pick ever. I mean, Goddard is probably
better than a loss. I don't know.
It's it's close between fading KC or fading Tampa Bay.
Do you think I? Think.
I think so. I don't think we want as.
As. I mean as incredible as Bucker's
been. I don't think we want Bucker in
-30°. It's.
One of these two probably. Yeah.
So let's go. Let's go McLaughlin.
I'll go McLaughlin. Cool.
There you go. So you're leaving me?
The fun. We're gonna be Fading Green Bay
for sure. Yeah.
Yeah, so I'll go Rishi Rice. All right, nice.
Let me just scroll and scroll and scroll.
All right, the final line up that we built here, Josh Allen,
Devin Singletary, Christian McCaffrey, Cooper Cup, CD Lamb,
Amari, Cooper, Tyree Kill, Aman, Raw, Rashi, Rice Gottard, Chase
McLaughlin, and Baltimore Defense.
This lineup is eerily similar like structurally and
thematically to the one we made last night where it's still,
it's like it's still 2 running backs, it's still one tight end,
and yet it's full fading. The two teams that most people
are going to full fade and it's also still mega unique.
Yeah, yeah it's it's not it's not that hard to get like really
different in this tournament. I mean Rashi Rice already is
like a very Rashi Rice. Devon Singletary yeah, those.
I mean Rice and Singletary will definitely be sub ten.
Well Singletary definitely will be.
Rice probably will be and then got her and Cup will probably be
around 20. So you're you're already pretty
off the beaten path. Yep, Yeah.
Is there anything with this one that doesn't check out
logically? I think it's fine, right?
No, it works with DMR to protect.
I don't know whose idea that was.
Yeah, because you're yeah, you're you're OK with either
Houston or Cleveland winning in this scenario?
We're probably we're also OK with Kansas City or Miami
winning in that scenario, but we prefer Miami.
Prefer. Miami.
We definitely prefer Miami. That makes it easier for Allen
and yeah. Yeah, although if you're if like
if you if Devin Singletary is your lowest on player and they
win and then he goes on the road and beats Baltimore, he probably
has a positive game script and he's probably just like the
smash of all smashes. Yeah, although like Amari, if
they, I mean, the Cleveland defense could take out Baltimore
and then it's like then you're getting three games up from
Amari. Even if he doesn't have a great
game against the Ravens, it's pretty sick.
Yeah, all right, dudes. We got we got to get in the lab,
start building some teams. We got to roll up our sleeves,
get some calluses on these. On these hands, Dink and Leonie,
you guys already got your established million out for Wild
Card weekend. Leonie also did a podcast
earlier today covering both this contest and NFFC strategy.
Anything else you guys are working on right now?
Thanks, grinding the NBA streets.
Yeah, just making sure there's no changes for this 10:00 game
so we can keep the Twitter streets clean tonight, you know?
Yeah, it's been tough out there. It always is, man.
It always is. Are you?
Are you on team You you would like the the sites to fully
eliminate late swap? Fully eliminate late swap.
I've probably dug in my heels too much on that over the last
10 years to say to flip sides and say yes, I'd like it
eliminated. I've I've been the I I think
Aguiar blocked me on all social media platforms because of my
arguing for late swap in back in the day.
So are you? Are you still?
Blocked. I'm pretty confident I'm still
blocked by Aguiar so. Who got my deposit limits raised
last week? So, yeah, so I I I think what
they're doing now with the like eliminating the late games and
testing smaller slate sizes, I think is like a good middle
ground for the casual consumer. And I think just NBADFS needs
more people who want to play it, who want to be able to play it
casually, which is a challenge with the way that the NBA is
structured. I never got it.
I I forget maybe, I don't know, four or five years ago I was
like, I'll try this out. And then that was one of the
reasons I was like, I have not to do this.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, we appreciate all of you
guys joining us here for Playoff week.
Always a blast. And yeah, we'll we'll keep the
conversation going in the Discord here.
And yeah, hope you guys all get all your lineups in.
There's still some contests open on Underdog.
I saw Sacrilegious is up to like 130 gauntlets he mentioned in
the chat earlier. Gauntlet twos.
By the way, he is going to hit 1000 playoff basketball drafts,
it sounds like. He was late to this stream.
He showed up 20 minutes late. He's like, man, sorry I got
wrapped up in a bunch of giraffes.
Yeah, yes, appreciate all of you guys hanging out.
And again, our programming note, so we're going to have no show
next Thursday. I'm traveling, but we're going
to do a special edition ship cast on Monday night for Eagles
and Bucks. So same deal as usual.
We'll get a guest, We'll have some pick Em's.
We'll have some drinks, We'll sweat it out.
We'll get to check in on all of the updated ownership stuff,
check out some of our underdog high stakes teams we drafted all
of that good stuff, so tune in for that.
I believe kickoff is 15 minutes earlier than usual. 8:00 PM
Eastern. I want to say that'll be Monday
night. Gretch.
Pat. Anything else I'm forgetting
here? No, I I threw some thoughts
together on leg up as I mentioned just kind of some of
the some of the stuff we covered today of kind of how the
landscape shifting if you want to check that out kind of a
quick quick read. Yeah, yeah, I hit all of the the
ownership related news stuff. Gretch, anything for you?
Yeah, no, I just got my heart pulled out of my chest this
morning. But other than that, no solid
since last night. There you go.
Where I'm I just wanted to note I'm very interested in seeing
what a quick read from Pat Crane looks like.
It's I. Believe under 1000 words.
I mean, it's probably. Like 1200?
Yeah, it might have been 1200. I think it was, I think it was
like 900 LB that I added to her section.
Gretch, what's the over under on Dunzay's NFL draft pick number?
I don't know. I I saw someone say he's a lock
for the top ten. I think people really like him.
I think my prediction on him is Pat's not going to like him,
'cause I was looking to snap a little bit and he he was good in
his in his fourth season. He and he's he's going to be a
guy who needed that fourth season and Pat's numbers.
And then I'm going to tell Pat, Put the fucking film on, bro.
Hey, actually fucking go to the national championship.
Go fucking to watch the game. Bro, All right.
I appreciate you all. Join us in the Discord.
Good luck. I will not be bullied off my
doomsday take. That I don't know yet.
Not capitulating this. Is I?
I don't have a take yet, but I will have whatever take I
fucking have, I'm telling you that.
Hey, can we get one final last update from Pat Kornacki here to
take us out? So we are looking at some
ownership changes overnight, probably not too, nothing too
major. You know things are pretty
settled in, but we could see some shifts.
I would say more in the Tampa Bay area.
We could see some minor shifts in the Rashad White direction.
We could also see some Kyron Williams.
There's some incoming bearish downward pressure as the puka
steam rises. Look for that.
We'll see you tomorrow. Good luck in your championships.