Thanksgiving football week is behind us.
Only two more weeks until Fantasy playoffs begin and Kyron
Williams is back with a vengeance.
We'll take you through all the charts and relevant data here on
Stat Chasing, Pat Fryer, Helmo. This is why.
This is why I'm hot Anita. Hand job.
Fix your sight, Jamar, and also play chase you.
Can't handle the heat? It looks like we're finally at
this point. You're right, All right.
Just a couple more weeks to go, Draco, tell We're into the
playoffs, get to see how all of our best ball teams shake out
and and the real sweat begins. Yeah, just two more weeks to go
and I guess main event regular seasons behind us.
So we are, we are definitely in in the late or in the end game
of the season for sure. Yeah absolutely.
It's it's still I I want to say like just this touch too early
to kind of start doing the post mortem type stuff and you know
doing some look back type analysis.
But I think it's also right about the appropriate time where
we can start that way too early. Look forward, you know, maybe to
what next year's best ball drafts are going to look like.
Only prime time to start discussing playoff best ball and
all of those fun contests, which I'm sure will will tease out.
Yeah. I mean, it's interesting, isn't
it? Because we're 12, We're 12,
fourteenths out of the way. True.
True to the normal, the regular season.
But then each individual week in in in the playoffs ends up
having its own, like, outsize. Meaning, like it has this.
It's it new like? Greater importance imprinted on
everyone's brain. Like, for the life of me, I
can't remember which random wide receiver went nuclear in Week
11, but I'll I'll never forget that Mike Evans, out of nowhere,
had the massive week. Yeah, absolutely.
That's that's funny that you bring that up, 'cause that was
something I was going to talk about later today.
I won't spoil the spot that I was going to bring up that
specific phenomenon with respect to, but I really, I was thinking
about that in the context of we pretty much get like, I want to
say it's the first three weeks of the season or so.
And that's just so vividly imprinted on our brains of like
this is what these players are. We have three weeks now that's
enough data, surely, right? That's going to tell us what's
going on. And so everyone gets this idea
of this is what these players are and that really carries A
disproportionate amount of weight for a big chunk of the
season. And then you kind of get like
you're talking about, you get that vividness bias from what
goes on at the end of the season and in the fantasy playoffs,
right. And then of course the the real
life playoffs, you know, you you still get a little bit of that
trickling over. And so the guys that do their
best work in this kind of middle stretch of the season, often
times I feel are are forgotten a little bit.
So it's important to just, you know, kind of remain balanced in
your analysis and make sure that you're not over weighting, you
know, performances that came at a specific time of the season.
Yeah, agreed. Like, it's funny because
obviously we are when you're drafting younger players or or
players that are injured at the start of the year that that
that's sort of what you're playing for.
But in the absence of that, there's literally like if, if,
if it's like a third or fourth year or or older player, like
there's a there's just literally no no difference football wise.
Obviously outsize importance, money wise, but yeah, it's just
how much go ahead, how how much can you really control for
getting that outside production in those weeks where it matters,
right. And and like you mentioned,
really the only thing you can do to control for that is, well,
I'm going to draft a bunch of rookies because their production
historically has increased as seasons go go on.
So. Yeah, and and and obviously you
shouldn't. I mean, this is to me
overwhelming obvious that you shouldn't.
Logically, you shouldn't estimate a player's value to be
better just because they had the week 17 game like that, that
that, shouldn't that, that should only be viewed in inside
the context of like the whole season rather than oh, they had
the the Week 17 spike week, this is a spike week player.
Like, yeah, I know. I the pertinent analysis you can
do with respect to that is more so like what shape a player's
specific distribution curve takes.
Like there are some players that are certainly more prone to
having their production in big bursts right those those spike
weeks that we're after and there's guys that are are more
likely to be the steady Eddy type performers which you know
and and I really I think this is a a part of analysis where you
know certainly people have talked about it but and it it
almost got you know memes to death with oh player X is better
in basketball. But I actually think that's
pretty important analysis and it's something where I won't I
won't tease too much of it but I'll probably be writing a a
little bit about that this offseason.
I think that people haven't turned over the correct rocks
yet to figure out how to exactly classify players as better in
basketball versus better in redraft type players.
But a guy that I, I was discussing with some people in a
Discord chat today as Rashad White and the perception of the
people I was talking to was, oh, Rashad White is going to have a
huge advance rate. This guy's crushing.
Got to have a massive advance rate, right?
And while his advance rate is good, it's not close to the
absolute league winners, you know, like Keenan Allen or Mike
Evans or, you know, guys like that.
Even even Devana Chan, who has missed a large number of weeks,
has a better advance rate than Rashad White going just a couple
rounds after him, even, you know, just a round in some
drafts. And so they're basically going
in the same place of the draft. But A Chan has such a better
advance rate, and it's because of the way that Rashad White
scored his points for you. You know Rashad White gave you
awesome consistency which in a redraft league like if you
drafted Rashad White at cost, you're so happy with him.
You you literally didn't have a decision to make after like Week
5. You're like that dude's in my
lineup. I don't.
I don't think about him, but in best of all he's good but but
not what people would think. So I am one one of the things
that I I, I often wonder about or or question is like are are
we actually good at predicting that point distribution ahead of
time And my my my sort of talk has has has been not not always.
Especially I I mean with running backs I think it's a little bit
easier and like you you can probably expect that this the
guys with with that are going to have really high expected
points. But you're pretty confident
aren't like stars that that's probably a good profile for like
not a or a bad profile for those spike weeks and and and and and
helpful distributions but. I I do often I do often wonder
like just because they had one season where big week little
week big week little week. Is that is that truly like a
predictor for? Yeah, awesome question.
And I'll tell you, this is like true, disturbed, degenerate
behavior for why I've looked into this.
So I had a league. It was a work league that I was
in like, gosh, probably close to a decade ago at this point.
And they had some funky scoring settings, one of which was a big
play bonus. You get, you know, plus three
points if a player has a play that's over 40 yards.
And so I went back and did like some back testing to try and
figure out like is there anything that I can come up with
that's more predictive for you know, what players are going to
give me these big splash plays, But I also need to be able to
attach it to their overall fantasy production.
Like, it doesn't really help me if Rashid Shahid gives me a
bunch of 40 point plays, but he's not startable except for in
like 2 weeks, right? That's like a best ball type of
way. And so I did come up with a
metric purely for this stupid work league that I I think I'm
going to be flushing out a lot more this offseason and do
taking a little bit more of a rigorous approach to it.
But I will tell you that I found a little bit of year over year
stickiness with the kind of crude approach that I took the
first time. So I'm.
I'm excited. In the play by play data, there
is players who could catch long in in your example and players
who catch deep passes that that that that's that's predictive.
And and I mean hopefully helpful for Spike weeks and because I
still, I still wonder and maybe I'm, I'm sidetracking this too
much here but I still wonder if like that is still a better and
best ball overall production because you can have it's like
you said you can have somebody who they they get a bunch of 40
point plays but. If those are spread out sort of
like evenly or or not not all clustered into one or two weeks
like that's still like a that's still a kind of a steady point
distribution. Yeah, I'll tell you what I was
looking for really was kind of a baseline of production with
having that indicator that I came up with on top of that.
And so those guys that met those two criteria became players that
in this first, you know, expedition to to find this
metric, those are guys that I moved up the rankings in in this
specific format, so. That that is interesting.
That is interesting and and with that probably a good idea to
kick into these into these charts and so first chart as
always QB passing and efficiency.
Or see passing efficiency and rushing production and.
On the horizontal axis, we've got adjusted yards per attempt,
which is like normal yards per attempt, but rewards touchdowns
and punishes interceptions. We've got touchdown rate on the
vertical axis. And then we have the size of the
bubble corresponds to rushing yards per game.
And I I feel like I, I, I sort of open this with this every
week and it's that this is at this point a pretty steady
chart. And even small movements are
sort of notable because we've got, I guess we've got 12 weeks
of data in here and sort of this should be what we know about
each player. I guess where can come in most
handy is where, when, when we have or at this point in the
season when we have new players who we who've only played a
couple of games such as Tommy de Vito.
Who? Who looks to be honestly
sticking out here as a sort of like negative regression
candidate. Yeah, I definitely, I think
Tommy Devito's a a pretty prime negative regression candidate.
Hasn't looked very good. Did manage to get those two
touchdown passes to Saquon a week ago, which I certainly
think is boosting his TD rate there above what's going to be
sustainable for him. He did have a couple nice
looking throws to Jalen Hyatt, you know, deeper down the field,
deeper A dot, you know, outside the numbers, so definitely
harder throws to convert on. But I just think more more than
anything, it's not something I'm like super excited about this
season, just 'cause I don't think there will be very many
opportunities for this to be relevant or something you can
take advantage of. Like it's going to be pretty
hard to want to roll out like Jalen Hyatt in DFS or something,
right? Or even in like a, you know, a
battle Royale type draft. I I guess maybe if we have one
more giant Showdown slate this year, which I haven't, haven't
looked to see. But if we do, I guess I'll be
potentially overweight on Jalen Hyatt if he comes in reasonable.
But yeah, I mean nothing. Nothing super useful or
actionable there. They.
Yeah, they played a Packers on Monday night December 11th.
OK, well, bummer. I don't even know if I'm gonna
play that Showdown slate 'cause I'm flying.
I'm flying back from Miami from the dog bowl.
I know someone. I mean, shit I won't have my PCI
can't run my my model. So you know, someone go ahead
and and jam some Jalen Hyatt for me on that slate or maybe I'll,
I'll move the flight to, you know, first thing Monday morning
to get back in time. You know I think they they're
also playing on Christmas and so if if you wanna redeem yourself
and get back your Grinder credentials I might be might be
in an illegal state for Christmas.
So unable to to play that one and you know what there's just
there's only so much showdown degeneracy I can even I can
handle and we're we're just gonna spend time with the family
on Christmas. Pretty reasonable.
Anybody else here who who sticks
that to you? Yeah, a couple couple guys.
Really quick. I had notes on So Dak has been
steadily moving up and to the right kind of in this echelon of
elite quarterbacks and and really like the way that this
chart shakes out. This chart isn't like ordering
guys or clustering them with respect to oh this guy's elite
for fantasy. This is more like an efficiency
type chart and you can kind of put it all together with the
size of the dot for like OK and then and then this is but really
what we're missing for like how this would be the most
applicable for fantasy production is some measure of
volume as well which we we talked about behind the scenes
maybe making some adjustments to this chart eventually.
But at this point in the season we're we're pretty pretty much
you know past this this data being all that helpful.
We kind of know what these guys are.
But I didn't want to point out Dak has just been on fire enough
lately that he's moved into that echelon of those extremely
efficient passers like to Stroud Purdy.
The other note that I had just came from watching that Eagles
game which you know of course crazy shootout went absolutely
nuclear in the second-half. But if you watch the first half,
I mean, I don't know if you know the second-half is going to
taint people's perception of this.
But the first half, both of these offenses to me looked
like, not great. You know, like they they each
showed a lot of a lot of warts in the first half.
And so specifically with respect to, and I wanted to to make this
note for playoff basketball #1. Like, I hope you're not drafting
Josh Allen or any bills for playoff basketball because their
price is egregious and they're only like 8% to make the
playoffs. So if you have been drafting
Josh Allen, I'm really sorry. Unless your name is Liam, then
you can draft as much bills as you want.
Yeah, you can. I mean, he's got money to burn,
man. Liam.
Liam's got like probably a dozen more years of blindly drafting
bills to like get closer to expected value on his absolute
son. Run with them so he can.
Liam is allowed to draft more bills purely ever trying to get
closer to his expected value. But what I what I really wanted
to say was with respect to Hertz, the Eagles have, and
rightfully so, a pretty high price in current playoff
basketball. ADP.
This is only a small part of this analysis has to do with the
Jalen Hurts knee injury, which I did.
I mentioned on a show a couple weeks back that I was, I was
lower on Hertz on a specific slate because I thought his
rushing projection was not appropriately factoring in the
knee injury. And on that week he definitely
rushed less and he's he's had less rushing going forward since
he's suffered the knee injury. And I I don't know how serious
the knee injury is or if that carries over into the play offs.
So this analysis is kind of independent of that.
So you can kind of add that knee injury as a plus or minus there,
depending on how you think that shakes out for his health in the
playoffs. But his passing volume, what
he's able to do through the air if we, if we remove the tush
push fantasy value, he's not that great, especially not for
the price that he's going at in playoff basketball.
Now of course the Eagles have really high odds to make the
Super Bowl the way that I think I'm most interested in playing
that though just, you know, being cost sensitive and being
aware of the fact that in games where the Eagles don't get tush
pushes for Hertz, his expected fantasy points are going to be
drastically lower. Now of course they get lots of
tush pushes on the goal line, but I mean you saw it in the
first half of this game where the Bills weren't letting them
get into position to to take advantage of that on onto the
goal line and they were, they were stopping drives short of
that. And so I think I'd rather try
and play the Eagles through secondary options and not have a
primary team stack, especially because they're they're likely
to get the buy. And so I don't want to have to
draft a second quarterback along with Jalen Hurd.
So I'm less than enthused about, you know, relative to his cost.
I think I'd rather take Eagles weapons and have them be.
Hey, I still think the Eagles can make the Super Bowl, but I'm
gonna play the quarterback through the other side of that
Super Bowl matchup if that makes sense.
I know that was a pretty long winded.
Take so no no I I I I thought that was easy to follow and but
the summarize not interested in hurts in playoff best ball and
that's because his his is throwing efficiency.
Has not been great. And then last couple of weeks
been actually kind of poor. And if if that because of some
sort of injury, then maybe that's even worse.
But sort of acknowledging that the Eagles are definitely a
favorite to make the Super Bowl and fading the Eagles is is not
a. It's not a palatable strategy,
even at an expensive cost, just because there's such big Super
Bowl favorites. But playing them through
secondary pieces so like Swift or like about the Smith or or
something like that as as something on the other side of
your primary stack and I think that that and I I don't have the
finger on the pulse of the the playoff best balls streets as
much as you but that feels like a pretty contrarian stance where
like. He was obviously he Hertz was
one of the highest drafted QBs. I expect him to still be one of
the highest drafted QBs, but just looking at his, at his
trying efficiency that that that's sort of what you're
leaning on. Yeah and and here's you if you
want we'll we'll go all the way spicy.
I'm gonna I'm gonna leak some playoff, playoff basketball
alpha here. Not not too much 'cause I do
believe that we're going to be having a A piece come out over
at legendary upside with some more in depth strategy.
But here here's here's probably going to be the way that I play
the Eagles in playoff basketball this season and of course.
The prices are going to change as the playoff picture
crystallizes right As we get more more through more games of
the season. We know what teams are going to
be in what seeds. The prices will change but I
only expect the Eagles to get more expensive.
You know as it becomes pretty evident that you know they're
getting the buy that'll that'll drop them just a a hair but not
by much and and I I think that people are going to be excited
about them as a a Super Bowl favorite and so I'll be fading.
Hertz at cost, but on the teams that I do take Hertz.
What I'm likely going to do and this, this is going to depend
heavily on how the prices line up.
But what I'm likely going to do, you won't be able to get very
much Hertz plus A.J. Brown just the way the cost is
going up. So you're going to have a right
next to each other. You're going to have a
disproportionate amount of teams that are Hertz, Devonta, Smith.
And what I actually think is going to be the best way to play
this with respect to the field. When I flip all the cards over
in the finals, if the Eagles are in the Super Bowl, what I
actually want is I want Hertz as my lone Eagle.
I want a solo Hertz. Maybe Hertz.
Plus, you know, Swift and only rocking 2 Eagles to number one
help my advance rate through their bye week and #2 lean into
the tush push. Hey, if the Eagles are getting
to the Super Bowl. If they are scoring fantasy
points, it's at the detriment of all their other weapons because
Jalen Hurts is stealing all those touchdowns.
He accounts for such a high percentage of the team's
touchdowns, and I think between Hertz and Swift, you can damn
near account for 100% of the team's touchdowns.
You know you're going to miss the odd one to freaking Kenny
Gainwell or Boston Scott or whatever, but you got those two
players. You have all the Eagles
touchdowns wrapped up. You miss the extremely chalky
stacks of, you know, with Devonta Smith, with Goddard, and
then you show up to the Super Bowl and you don't have one of
your five active roster spots filled with one of those players
who could have a pretty decent chance to fail relative to the
other skill position players in that game.
I just, I like the leverage that it can give you.
So I'm either hurts with swift or I'm, I'm fading hurts and
going with Eagles secondary weapons.
But yeah and and what's sort of interesting about that is you
sort of noted A.J. Brown will be a hard, would be a
hard combination to to hard combination to get with Hertz.
And so even if like Hertz falls back to six and and A.J.
Brown is still there are are are you just not, is that a double
top that you're you're doing or you're even pushing that into a
fade? No, no, I would.
So I'm going to be pretty market sensitive.
So it really depends on what I've seen in the market over the
course of the contest and and since these contests can fill
and become, you know like a time box type contest.
When I play a playoff festival contest, I I will pretty much
only play if I will Max it because I want the maximum
amount of data that I can have on what the field is doing and
I'm tracking all of that. And so I I want to know.
How many other people could really get Hurts A.J.
Brown? If it's relatively rare, then
I'm certainly happy to double tap that right and and I'm
letting the market then dictate the exposure that I get to Jalen
Hurts if that makes sense. Yeah, makes perfect sense.
And so I I I guess it but give it contingent on it being rare
you're happy to double top it and yeah on on the flip side
with the Levanta Smith being pretty common I'm just looking
at the week to week points and it sort of is because hurt even
though the offense is great because Hertz gets so many of
the touchdowns like a lot of these guys like they have the
big spike weeks but then they have really low sort of like
down weeks as well and it it only takes it only takes one or
two of those in in in playoff basketball with the the small
player pool to to to really wipe you out.
Yeah. So that's that's kind of why I
feel the way that I do about how I think the best way to play the
Eagles is going to be this season again contingent on
prices. And then the last playoff
basketball take I I had here was Lamar is way underpriced right
now. We we need to be.
I mean, I've, I know I've been beating the Lamar drum like all
season, but I I'm still doing the Lamar thing like.
This guy we just saw Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts like go for 35
and 40. Like Lamar has that squarely in
his range. Like I I would even say that
Lamar is more likely to have those games than Josh Allen with
just just with like I I I don't even think Josh Allen's rushing
upside this season is close to what Lamar's is just with how
much they've limited his volume. And like, yes, that's picked up
a little bit lately, but like. Dude, Lamar, rushing for 100
yards is is not even like that far outside.
You know what you could expect. And and really you're just
looking at like the Ravens don't get pushed very often.
And so I think that's another thing that you need to think
about with respect to playoff basketball is a lot of these
teams are going to be in situations that have not.
Been situations we've seen very much of over the course of the
season. You know the Eagles are going to
play good teams. You know the the Ravens are
going to play good teams and all of a sudden they're going to
have situations where they can't just rest on their laurels and
run Gus Edwards down the other team's throat like 20 times and
you know, coast to a victory. They're going to have to keep
putting points up. So definitely worth keeping in
mind that some of these teams are going to be.
In game scripts that are a lot different than the majority of
game scripts we've seen for that.
And there's no way there's no chance Ravens can win the buy
right or or like, very little chance.
Let me let me look at that. I actually think that there is a
a chance still OK, 'cause I'm I'm sort of looking at it and I
I'm, I don't have, I haven't looked at it in a sophisticated
way as you. But just looking at Fox Sports
stuff, the Eagles have an 18% chance of winning the Super
Bowl. Yeah.
And or and then the Ravens have an 11% chance of winning the
Super Bowl which I I guess they they are different, but they're
not that different. It's not like the Eagles are are
dislike way ahead favorite to win, and the Ravens are just
like like gone by the wayside. Yeah the the Ravens have a 18%
chance of getting the one seed still it's Chiefs about 40%,
Jacksonville 20%, Baltimore 18%, Miami 16%.
So it's AII would say you know it's a four horse race still in
in the AFC you're you're really certainly not the favorites no.
No, no. You're looking for Kansas City
to drop a game and then it gets really interesting basically and
and so but I, I, I the way I was gonna put it is that the fact
that the Ravens are more likely than not to not get to buy and
and they still have a high Super Bowl probability.
Well, then they could. They could also be like a
four-game, like, sort of powerhouse.
Yeah, the thing I love about the Ravens too is, and this is in
current ADP in the market, so it'll change, but.
Currently you can get just some absolute juggernaut picks, Like,
you know, get a a really strong NFC side of your build going and
then just boom, tack Lamar onto it.
And all of a sudden you're like, OK, I got not only teams that
have really high probability of making it to the Super Bowl, but
I've also got like all the best players.
And typically in playoff basketball, what you're doing is
I get a couple good players. And I get, you know, some teams
with high probability of the Super Bowl, but then I get a
bunch of kind of more more scrub thin players that I'm building
out so that I have a more robust Super Bowl bet.
In the event that that those teams hit, you know, they're of
course people that aren't as Privy to this strategy are are
going to build teams that are more robust with their raw
projected points in the early weeks.
But those teams? Pretty much are are just dead to
rights. If they do make the finals,
'cause they can't field five players or you know, by the
conference championship, they're all but wiped out 'cause they
took too many teams that are gonna face each other.
So yeah, makes that makes sense. And any anybody else that that
you wanted to touch on before we we move on?
Yeah, last guy and then we can get get moving to next charts.
But CJ Stroud just continues to be.
Incredible. And the Texans are are starting
to become more and more willing to pass, which we also can.
We can tease that into your favorite player that we're gonna
discuss, I believe on the next chart.
But I I think CJ Stroud don't don't tell me what a good time.
CJ Stroud is is primed for like positive touchdown regression
here it looks like. I mean, if you look at him and
Tua, Stroud's looking a little low on his TD rate.
You know, with respect to guys like Tua and Brock Purdy, you
know in in Dak Prescott, guys in the similar adjusted yards per
attempt range. So I would not be surprised at
all if CJ Stroud's best game of the season is yet to come.
Yeah well here's here's hoping and I will take that cue and let
me and obviously I feel like I say this every week so I'm just
going to get out of the way every week is now Devon
Singletary week. He's like somehow inexplicitly A
stood running back. He was like a workhorse.
I don't I don't know how he does this every year.
Every year he does this, and I need to whenever whatever
anybody says about Devon Singletary in next offseason, I
just need to block it out. And just like, remember, it's
been like the last three years in a row.
He's gone from like and and and not highly drafted to like,
somehow like the workhorse for his team by the end of the year.
Yeah, his role. Yeah, his role looks great.
If you drafted Devon Singletary and Bestball, you're extremely
pleased with how it's it's shaking out.
And The thing is, I don't. Like this.
Sure. When Damien Pierce is fully
healthy change a little bit. I don't think it's it's not
going back to you know Devin Singletary is you know just the
passing down specialist or he comes into pass block like I'm
pretty sure it's Devin Singletary alpha with Damien
Pierce change of pace like the bruiser between the tackles
back. So yeah, I mean, I it's nuts.
Yeah, I've gotta gotta capitulate to your Devon
Singletary Love 'cause you you've been beating the Jerome.
You were. You were.
I mean, when we were drafting best ball teams this summer, I I
couldn't even tell you how many times I had to be like, I don't
know about us taking that Singletary here, man.
But, well, hopefully, hopefully. I I I'm looking at my my
currently advancing basketball teams and I'm hoping to get just
one Devon Singletary team for For the Memories.
Other moving moving on to other running backs, Rashad White
continues to have his just absolutely elite role.
You know, we mentioned him a little bit earlier with respect
to like he's kind of the steady Eddy churning out those those
usable weeks, not as much a spike week type of player, but
you know, super, super high on the usable weeks for him.
Josh Jacobs. Was looking like he might get
there on just the raw volume. Had a ton of volume in the first
half, then breaks that big breakaway touchdown run and then
just like ghosted for scoring any fantasy points after that.
It was like he he just got tired of scoring fantasy points.
But yeah, these these guys up in this upper echelon of the rolls.
You know, you kind of know what you've got in them.
You got those guys that are just like, hey, great projectable
volume players like Devin Singletary, Rashad White, Josh
Jacobs, Saquan Barkley. I I think I'm ready.
I mean, we've talked about the decline of Austin Eckler's
efficiency. I'm ready to put Eckler in that
category. He's still, he's still less of a
volume play because he doesn't really get there on rushing
volume. It's more the receiving volume
and then of course like the high.
Probability of Green Zone touches in the event the
Chargers actually have a game where their offense is
functional. As a brief aside to that,
because I think it is relevant with respect to Austin Eckler, I
don't know if you watched that entire Chargers island game, but
man, they they couldn't move the ball whatsoever on offense
unless it was Keenan Allen, It was like.
Was the play designed to Keenan Allen?
If yes, first down. If not, we are well on our way
to a three and out unless we decide that Keenan Allen gets
the ball before we go three and out.
And it was so painful to watch. Like I I was watching.
It was brutal. Yeah, I was watching with my
wife, who had Keenan on her fantasy team, needed him to do
something. You know, and I told her well, I
have good news for you. And the only way that the
Chargers win this game is Keenan catches 20 balls like he he
needs. He literally needs to catch 20
balls for them to win this game because otherwise they're not
going to move the ball enough and he did not catch 20 balls
and they didn't win the game. But yeah, it's it was so
frustrating because just as a a viewer you could tell like.
Look, it might sound stupid on the sideline to be like every
play needs to be to Keenan. Like, I I get that he's going to
get tired and like maybe we take every other playoff and do
something different. But like any play that wasn't to
Keenan just looked like such a wasted play.
And then you got the random like Justin Herbert long scramble,
you know? But.
Well, like that was basically it.
It's like, did we get a random lucky, explosive play to happen
because something broke down or did we throw to Keenan?
And if neither of those things are true, then we're punting.
So yeah, I'm, I think Eckler is squarely in that category of not
elite guys anymore. More so, just a play on volume,
which is kind of a bummer. Yeah, I think.
I think that's right. And I'm I'm sort of I'm I just
started looking at his advanced stats here and on the season his
like next Gen. stats stuff like he has rushing yarns over
expected. But then when I look at the sort
of stat chasing database and and and the expected point stuff.
So his expected, his fantasy point over expected from
yardage. He had basically 69 yards more
than expected in nice one, which is pretty nice.
But then once he came back in week six through week 12 and
those weeks he's sung to 15 yards under expected.
So I mean maybe that that's that's too much trend reading
from from small sample size. But to me it truly feels like
this. This is an older back who had a
high ankle sprain and has not been able to properly recover.
Yeah. And it like we saw that we saw
this this the pacing where he was he was running like I think
it was like 18 miles an hour or something like that like well
below his like his his what I'd say his his highest pace was
last year and so I I I don't know if I'm leaving in in the
dirt for next year but soft tissue injury older running back
slow unproductive not not great combinations do you really need
the recovery to go well in the offseason for next year to work.
Yeah, I think next year's going to be a pretty price sensitive.
I mean I was already pretty heavily underweight on him this
season just with age concerns. And so if we can get him, if he
goes in like the Aaron Jones range, which I don't think is so
ludicrous given the, you know, the arc of his career, if he
goes in that like 4-5 turn range where Aaron Jones is going.
And that's where I'd have a little bit of interest there
just in like that he still has a little juice left and that the
high ankle sprain sapped way more than you know, we we gave
it credit for and that he actually, you know those first
couple weeks were more indicative of what he's still
got in the tank. But anyway, I did want to ask
you about another guy who, you know, purely a volume play, not
really an explosiveness or talent play at this point,
unfortunately, but from Andre Stevenson with how?
Absolute just dog water trash the Patriots offense looks they
Bill Belichick looks like it physically pains him to call a
pass play for either quarterback now like you know Mack Jones or
Bailey's appy like Bill is is in great pain to see either of
those guys throw the ball. So I I think that we might just
get such a heaping helping of Remandre Stevenson because.
They're like it's, you know, we're at great risk of Bill
stroking out on us if we throw the ball more than 20 times with
either of our quarterbacks, and we can't do that.
So to protect his brain from hemorrhaging, we need Romandre
Stevenson to get more touches and by extension, I think Zeke
Elliott will also get more touches.
Do you think that as we go into this, you know, last third of
the year Romandre might kind of? Get to closer to like that
Rashad White level of he's just super consistent.
Not really gonna deliver much of the way of spike weeks but it's
just such a huge he he's getting the Thanksgiving.
You know first seconds and thirds all heaped on his plate
is what I'm looking at going forward.
So you're telling me a the offense sucks and so he's been
inefficient and now to compensate for the offense being
bad, they're gonna pass even less.
So I mean, to me that's just like like just a perfect recipe
for like the offense to be completely unusable for fantasy.
And because I mean if I if I had some belief that this run game
could be functional enough that if they just hand the ball off,
I don't know like 40 * a game that they that they somehow end
up with. 200 yards or or or like somewhere between 150 and 200
yards and and someone gets a score like I I I guess that
would make sense but right it it it's a struggle for me that like
if if if the offense is going to sort of turtle off like that and
it's a struggle for me to see any real production coming and
then like oh and by the way you have to split it with Ezekiel
Elliott. And I'm I, I, I I'm still not
feeling great about Romandre, I have to say.
I think that's probably the correct call, right.
I I just was a little optimistic after seeing the good box score
this week and. I think that trend is going to
hold. I think it's going to be like
how few times are we allowed to pass in an NFL game going
forward for the Patriots? But I think you're right that, I
mean, this already was an offense that was one of the have
nots as we described him, you know, courtesy of of Ben Gretch
for giving us that little moniker for offenses.
But yeah, they're just even more of a of a have not going
forward. I've got another running back
here that's kind of in that category though of might just
get such a crazy workload going forward that he's he's certainly
interesting and that's Zach Charbonnet who we can see he's
creeping up the chart now and you know with the injury to
Kenneth Walker and I haven't seen anything more about the
Kenneth Walker health status on when we can expect him back.
Do you have? Any insight as to you know how
long we might be getting the Zach Charbonne stand alone
experience And honestly I do not and my only guess would my only
thought on it would be that what's his name and Pete Carroll
is so like unreliable when it comes to injury stuff that it's
like it's it's truly like a it's a true it feels like a true
mystery box. As to when Kenneth Walker comes
back, I I think I I sort of downplayed the injury last week
and I think I was sort of wrong. I was definitely wrong to do
that and given given what I just said about P Carroll, it it it's
it's I guess you're you're just starting Chardonnay until until
you are told otherwise. Now I will have you know that
the Coach Speak Index does have Pete Carroll just barely into
the trustworthy category on his comments regarding injuries.
So if we do get a little bit of an update regarding Kenneth
Walker's injury timeline, I'd be more likely to believe that.
Shout out to. Pete, for getting a Coach Speak
Index creator on the DFS After Dark podcast.
That was an awesome listen and I know he made that free on his
YouTube channel, so I thought that was a great one.
Check that out. But going back to Kenneth
Walker, excuse me, going back to Zach Charbonnet, what I was
looking at is even if he is getting the bell cow workload,
which he looks competent, like he looks like he can do it in
all phases, right? He can run between the tackles.
He's got a little bit of burst. He's effective in the passing
game. So the kind of guy where when he
gets this opportunity for all this work should be really
exciting except he's doing it in these these are the next games
for him. He plays the Cowboys on Thursday
night not not great, although the Cowboys run defense is the
weakest part of their defense. So I actually think.
For all you showdown degenerates out there, I'll probably come in
a little overweight on the Kenneth or on my Zach Charbonnet
come Thursday. But then he goes right back to
the 49ers. They just put an absolute ass
whooping on the Seahawks. Then you get the Eagles after
that. And then finally on Christmas
Eve you get the Titans, which is like, OK, finally a a match up.
Where And And who knows, You know, maybe Kenneth Walker's
back by then. But it's just a lot of bad
matchups. But maybe you sneak a good one
out from the Cowboys here. I don't know.
What what do you think? Let's just say hypothetically
that Kenneth Walker is out indefinitely and all these are
just going to be Zach Charbonnet games.
Are you excited for him going forward?
What's what's the progress? I've never been like sort of
like a big Chardonnay cheerleader.
I remember he was I felt like he was only like so, so in college
like he wasn't awful but he wasn't like really really good
either and and I've definitely, I've definitely seen some like
positive like comments and stuff like that.
I know there's people who do really like them and but I don't
know, it's like he hasn't, has he played well it it doesn't
seem like it. I think it's hard to say, 'cause
he hasn't really gotten, you know, great opportunity with,
you know, getting the full workload.
I mean, what we we can't really hold him getting just stymied by
the 49ers against him, can we? Like, seems like such a tough
match up. But I I guess what I'd seen from
Charbonnet and what it it looks like with what you know, his
play is, he's more of a a Jack of all trades, master of none.
So really that makes sense where he's getting, he's getting the
run and he's getting the he's getting targets.
As well. And where those guys really cook
is when their offense is super efficient, right?
And they're just like this offense runs a shit load of
plays. So Charbonnet's gonna be good.
You know? There, there's just enough.
Happening on the offense that by virtue of raw play volume and
him getting so many snaps and then being you know in scoring
position he will, he literally can't not be good, right?
The problem is the offense is bad.
So can we can we hold him being stymied by the Rams against him?
That's that's a fairpoint. Yeah.
I think it more so just comes back to the Seahawks offense is
bad and so. That might be right.
That's your problem. Mark against Charbone.
So yeah, that makes sense. I think I think we're ready to
move on to the next chart cause the other running backs I wanted
to talk about I think are are best done on the efficiency
charts and let's let's move on through the.
Yeah, we can skip skip the backups here.
And so that this is the running back expected points chart and
you have a rushing if expected points sort of along this
horizontal axis and then receiving expected points along
the vertical axis and the size of the bubble corresponds to
fantasy points over expected. I needed a cough, but I was
getting through my explanation before I did.
You you powered through like a true professional and so of
course Devon Singletary atop the Trone in the 15 to 20 expected
points as you have Kyron Williams now I I guess it's
worth bearing in mind that we're only looking at the last four
weeks, so this is like a four week average.
Kyron Williams only has one week in the last four, so this is
just the last game where he had like a monster monster workload
and obviously he like he smashed it it as a as a football player
on on that workload too. So love that for him and you can
see that in the bubble. Anybody, anybody that you wanted
to talk about here? Yeah, I mean, just to echo the
Kyron Williams stuff, I know it's only one game, but it's not
that like, this is different than what he was doing earlier
in the season, right? He always lived in this above 20
expected fantasy points realm with an extremely high amount of
his expected fantasy points. Coming in the receiving game and
with Cooper cups injury and you know Puka's banged up like I see
this offense running through Kyron Williams and so just like
we discussed with Charbonnet is gonna he's gonna go the way the
offense goes. Kyron Williams is the same way
except the Rams offense can be functional and and you know I I
just, I think Kyron Williams is like.
For the rest of the season, there's only two backs that I
think could finish the season in the legendary category.
You know, meeting, meeting Pat's criteria of a legendary running
back, 23 full PPR fantasy points per game.
One of them is Christian McCaffrey and the other one is
Kyron Williams. Like I if you made me draft for
the rest of the season right now, today.
Probably. Take Kyron Williams in the top
five. Like, is that crazy?
It's like CMC Tyreekill CD Lamb. I think that.
I think that's pretty fair. I think that's.
It sounds it sounds super weird so that's why I'm like second
guessing myself but and so it's after it's it was after week one
that that what's his name and who who's the guy who they got
rid of the running back to get rid of Cam Akers.
Cam Akers. That was after week one they got
rid of him and then week 225 expected points, we tree 21 1/2
Expected points. Week 421.2 expected Points then
not so much. Week 5 and week six was the one
where you got the injury and then we 1224.9 so like like
you're saying firmly in in in the sort of 20 expected points
per game realm and he he he's important in the passing game
and he's getting carries. So in terms of the workload I I
I think that's more than true and then he's actually you know
he's he's played fairly well. So I don't I don't think you're
going to get like crazy. I know we did get we got crazy
efficiency I don't know if we should expect that if we should
expect great efficiency going forward but I think we should
expect like reasonable efficiency and with the in the
context of running backs being a mess this year I I I think
that's fair. I honestly, I think that's fair.
Maybe it is. It's like may I I I wanna say
it's a touch on aggressive side but then it's like oh who who do
you put in there over him? Like is Jamar Chase in there
over him? I don't think so.
So I I I have a hard time arguing against it.
Just the way I frame it. It just.
Feels weird, but you know what? That's I I think that you need
to remain very flexible in fantasy football and be willing
to adjust to new data and like. This it's not like this is the
first week we've seen this from Kyron.
You know he's he's done this like damn near every other week
that he's had the workload. So it's like hey enough's
enough. I like, I I know what this guy
is. I know what they want to do with
him. And so if he continues to be
underpriced in in DFS, which I'm sure he's going to shoot up.
I I haven't looked the slate for this next week.
But I mean, while he remains underpriced, you just play him
every week. It's like, it's kind of like.
You know, back with Legarrette Blunt was on his crazy touchdown
run and was forever mispriced. Like that entire season for DFS,
it was like, I guess I played Legarrette Blunt again.
OK, so Kyron is 7200 this week. That's so, Yeah, so underpriced
for sure, right. So you just play it you you
like. Like CMC is 9000 for.
For context, Yep, actually there is 8300.
Yeah, if I if I played classic DFS, which I am more of just a
Showdown purist. But if I played classic, I'm
very, very big on, you know, diversification for risk
management purposes. But I do think that Kyron would
be a guy that I'd be pretty heavy on this week.
So another player I wanted to talk about on this chart.
So like you mentioned this earlier, running back has just
kind of been such a mess this season.
That really it's anyone that falls into that 15 to 20 fantasy
expected fantasy point range is just like, all right, this guy's
king. We just play these guys because
no one else is doing anything really and this guy is going to
just screw with the fantasy football world's head this
season. This is going to be the player
that messes with fantasy football players perception the
most and it's Tony Pollard. So Tony Pollard has
disappointed. Pretty spectacularly through the
first half of the season, like people were ready to leave Tony
Pollard for dead. He's washed, he's dusty,
etcetera, etcetera. Well, the Cowboys had played in
such strange game scripts where it wasn't really necessary to,
you know, have Tony Pollard pound the rock or we can use
Rico Dowdell. Or we don't even really need to
run. We're going to pass way above
expectation. But offense is extremely
efficient, though. They only ran 50 plays.
Hang in there, you know 40 whatever points on Washington
this week just because they couldn't stop scoring.
They just scored too fast. And you know, Pollard had a
decent game and he had a decent game against Carolina.
What I'm what I'm seeing in Pollard, and this is me kind of
reading the tea leaves and trying to pick out the trend is.
The games or the Cowboys just smash where it's just hey,
they're walking away with it and the game's over before it
starts. Those aren't the Pollard games
you want. Sure you could get there on like
a random because we saw early in the season he had crazy high
expected fantasy points because they were just giving him a
bunch of goal line carries and they weren't getting converted.
But like you can run into that same game script where the
Cowboys are stomping. Pollard gets like 6 Green Zone
touches, but then he converts. And if he does that, you can
still get a smash game from Tony Pollard.
But I don't. Those aren't the ones I really
want to bet on. What I want to bet on for Tony
Pollard are games where the Cowboys are in the game.
Because in this game against Washington it was actually close
for a decent chunk of the game. It wasn't over for for a while,
you know, And Pollard still got a good amount of work because of
that. And so.
As you get later in the season, especially heading into playoff
basketball, what I really want in my heart of hearts is I want
Tony Pollard to have a couple more disappointing games.
Ideally the most disappointing games, like, right as the
Gauntlet gets released, like, and then the first couple weeks
of the Gauntlet, I need Tony to just dud out.
I need some real eggs, some absolute stinker goosers, you
know. And I will.
Load. Just back up the truck and give
me all of the Pollard that I can possibly take because I like I
have a newsflash they're going to play real teams in the
playoffs. And I I don't think the Cowboys
are as good as their record indicates.
They've played a lot of soft teams and they've gotten dog
walked by. You know the one good team they
played in the 49ers? They're going to play good teams
in the playoffs. They're going to be close and
Pollard's going to remain more involved.
They won't just be able to pass at will and let CD Lamb go crazy
for, you know, $1.50 and two touchdowns every game.
So that's my Pollard take. He's going to frustrate people
more here as the Cowboys blow out a couple bad teams to wrap
up their really soft schedule for the regular season.
Then you get into playoff basketball and you get some
truly phenomenal performances from Tony Pollard.
So and just a just a question I I guess play devil's advocate a
bit as sort of like a keystone part of that argument it our our
foundational piece of our argument is that Tony Pollard
remains good and I guess I'm I'm I'm not quite convinced that he
is so good and I guess what what's the I I guess the
argument that he's not that good is that he hasn't been that good
in terms of rushing yards over expected like his next Gen.
rushing yards over expected has been for two.
Like it's not just it's not just the touchdown stuff like the
yardage hasn't really been there either and on an offense that
like where the argument's like oh the offense been it's been
too good for him to get the ball enough.
Well, why hasn't it been too good when it's going through
him? Yeah, and my counterpoint to
that is it doesn't matter if he's good or not.
Like, it doesn't matter if your running back is good or not.
Because Kyron Williams is like one of the most sub athlete,
like literal Jag players in the NFL and he's the second best
running back for fantasy football.
Devin Singletary. Like, I can beat in a foot race
on my best day, you know, And he's also doing really well for
fantasy football, like. So I don't think that the talent
of the running back matters at all.
And I, you know, except on the very fringe, cases like does the
talent matter for Christian McCaffrey?
Sure 'cause he's insanely good, right?
But yeah, I don't think it matters.
I think the offense matters most, more than anything.
And then I also, I think it's probably 50-50 that Tony
Pollard's absolutely washed, just unplayable or or that he's
actually still pretty good. And I I tend to learn more in
the camp, that he's still pretty good.
In fact, his passing game involvement had been down
through the bulk of the season. But these last couple weeks he
started seeing a little bit more work in the passing game.
And again it's the game is like kind of close while he's getting
this passing down work or these you know, targets of the passing
game. And so that to me those high
value touches, you know, you're you're basically saying like the
Cowboys don't score explosive touchdowns and end up in the
Green Zone and Paula does get. You know, one or two of those a
game, and then he gets his three to six targets and all of a
sudden you're looking at a running back with very squarely
in that 15 to the high end of 20 expected fantasy points per
game. And I just, I my, my big thing
is a price here because I think that you're going to get a
market that's so frustrated at this player.
The sentiment is so public and so strongly negative like.
I mean if you just put out a a poll on Twitter right now you
know with how how many people are excited to draft Tony
Pollard and playoff best ball like you're you're not gonna get
hardly anyone that's excited. Let's let me, I'll, I'll pull up
his ADP here. Yeah, that that's just what I
was doing. And so Tony Pollard.
His AV is 16. OK I I I mean and and so it
sounded like the the the the the the way you you were sort of
framing Tony Pollard was that like OK sort of admitting that
some of the some of the big plays and stuff like that for
him has hasn't been there this year.
And and but ultimately agnostic on whether he's still any good
or not. Because when in in close games
hit hit his even though even though his EP hasn't been that
good in lots of games but in close games it will be good and
and that at a cheap enough price you're willing to bet on that.
Yeah, absolutely. And and yeah, his price looks
pretty appropriate in the current playoff baseball ADP.
Good Lord, though. Gus Edwards is way too cheap.
People don't get how to play this game at all.
This is hilarious. Yeah, like what are we doing?
That's a that's a good question. I saw that I think Keaton
Mitchell got the first carry for the Ravens and then I think he
he led Reinbach's in touches for against the Chargers.
So I I guess there maybe I'm giving the market way too much
credit here, but there does seem like a little bit of a risk
cured up. He's sort of getting flipped.
Yeah, I mean, the market has Keaton Mitchell, 13 picks past
Gus Edwards, though. So it's not the market's not
doing anything sharp. They're just the.
I mean, the Ravens in general are grossly mispriced.
Like, yeah, atrociously mispriced.
So. Yeah, I mean, I'm on Ross St.
Brown is like probably one of the worst price players.
Travis Kelsey is also really poorly priced.
So, yeah, there there's just a couple people where it shouldn't
be, shouldn't be going, where they're going and yeah, and
makes that makes sense, makes sense for sure.
And so I I guess we we've covered, we've covered Kyron
Williams, we've covered Eckler, we covered Singletary.
And the last guy I had that because again we we say this a
lot but like most of this stuff is relatively stable.
We kind of know like if we don't talk about a guy it's it's just
kind of because status quo. But one guy that I did have a
note on was Roshan Johnson is back to that.
Really good, high value touch role that he had in the very
beginning of the season. Super active in the passing
game. Looks good too.
Like, looks like he definitely could be the best back on the
team, you know? I know that Herbert's been
really efficient, but man, Rochon #1, he's got that dog in
him. There was a great play where
Cole Comet caught a pass really needed.
Some some oomph to get him a first down and Roshan just gets
behind him plants his hands squarely on his Turkus and
starts pushing the man for the first down.
It was it was like God, you you know that when they're watching
that one in the film room this week, they're high five.
Oh yeah, they're clapping him on the back.
He's he's getting all the love it was it was a dog play for
sure and he he had a bunch of stuff like that man.
He's just, he looks like a really good football player and
that's. And that's super consistent with
what the best analysts and college prospect, you know, guys
had had been saying. And what I'd heard with him
coming out was that he, he's just a really good football
player. Like you're going to, you're
going to want this guy. And I think that's true.
One one thing I'm looking at and this is more of a.
I don't know how fantasy relevant Roshawn Johnson's going
to be for the end of this season.
Like, probably fringe running back starter.
Like, definitely relevant on showdown slates.
But like, you know, that's that's probably about it.
I'm looking for the Bears to make a head coaching change and
then I'm interested in Roshawn Johnson next season.
I know that might sound counterintuitive because, like
when you get a regime change, sometimes they're not as into
the guy. Number one, I think he's good
enough at football that any regime's gonna be like, oh, we
like that guy and #2, I think the Bears are so grossly
incompetent on offense. Like it.
It's just like the dude. It it just looks like, you know
people don't care. Like the the quality control is
despicable with the Bears team. Like I'm.
I'm pretty sure that if you went there and you got the head
coaching job, like there would be less mistakes than are
currently happening with the Bears offense because it's it is
some it's bullshit, dude. Like watching.
It is so frustrating to be like, what?
What's happening here? Like how how is this allowed in
in a real NFL game? Like what the fuck is going on
during the week that this is the product that you're putting on
the field. But anyway, that's my my Bears
ranting. I got a little tilted watching
that island game. It it was a frustrating game for
sure. I I I know we we had a comment
here about Jalen Warren. Frustrating to see that he's
still not he he he was called the starter but he's not the
starter and we talked a little bit about a little bit about
this I think last week where it's sort of like the same as
it's been like they they're they're mixing around with
titles where it's sort of like a a 5050 split and yeah that that
that's they they haven't given up on it Naji enough to just
like completely bench him. I don't.
I don't think it's gonna happen right like you're just you're
gonna you're gonna perpetually it's it's like the Zeke Pollard
stuff. You're gonna perpetually want
more touches for the guy that we're all excited about the more
explosive player and you're just not gonna get him.
That's just the way the cookie crumbles here, you know, Right.
And that's that's why with somebody who's like a sort of
like a in a backup row, you wanna be very careful about the
price you paid. Like Warren is somebody I
remember sort of surging of draft boards and he went from
like a really attractive price to I wanna say was it the seven
or eight round that he he. He he finished.
I wanna say in like the low, like the the 10th right around
the 10th. You were.
You could get him in like the one 60s.
For a while I I had, I think there was one point in this
offseason where I had something like 60% Jalen Warren or
something absurd. I finished around, I want to say
like 30%. But yeah, when he was going
late, it was like, the only reason I didn't draft him was I
was like, God, it's gonna be really weird if I find my way to
like 100% Jalen Warren. So I should just I shouldn't
click in some of these drafts but yeah yeah makes sense.
I I I don't know what I was thinking there with I I just I
just remember him going up to a price where he he was he was no
longer attractive for for his sort of backup role and and I
guess you're still getting some payoff the fact that you got him
in a tent and and you're still getting sort of like a what is
it above 10 expected points per game that's that's like a good
outcome it's just that I guess not a the smashed up folks were
hoping for. No.
Yeah, I I certainly think you're happy with with what you're
getting from Jalen Warren. Yeah.
It's you know it's it's the same price that we drafted Alexander
Madison at forever and this guy definitely gave you more than
Madison. He hasn't had the you know, the
Naji Harris is injured. You know all Dalvin Cook is
injured. Madison smashes couple games of
the season, but. He's he's had a couple spike
weeks and like, you know, I I wouldn't be surprised if Jalen
Warren's best game is yet to come.
Still you know still still a decent amount of season left so
for sure and so moving on to the second running back chart and
and it's the same chart but we essentially players who's and
tell me if I'm explaining this wrong.
If somebody has a 22 expected points or let's say 12 expected
points per game and then another player has 13 if we put them
both on the same chart they're going to overlap each other it's
going to be difficult to read them.
So what we do is we put the 12, the evens, so 1214 blah blah
blah on one chart and the odds 13/15/17 on another chart.
That way you get 2 charts that are readable rather than one
chart that is just a a sublash bash of unreadable dots.
Did I get that right? That's that's basically it.
It's it's instead of it being by their fantasy points even odd,
it's by their ranking by expected points, even or odd.
But that's very semantical. But yes, it's it's seemingly
arbitrary, but it's designed to try and optimally display the
data points so that you guys can actually read them rather than
give you an unreadable mess. Right.
OK, OK. And we 12 in and I finally
understand that our our our charts great.
So this is I guess it's a little interesting that Charbonnet, I
know we talked about them a little bit, Charbonnet is still
and and I think this point to to your point you were making is
because the offense is not being great.
That's meant that the expected points have still been pretty
limited for them. Yeah and and this is a thing
that this is like the most God, this is, this is just like a bad
habit from back when I was you know, a a wee lad playing
fantasy football. But I would comb through box
scores right and look at what the guys had done in previous
weeks. And I would, I would just like
assign touchdown variants as I was coming through the box
scores. Just the like most basic level
of like pseudo analysis like. Well, what if I added a
touchdown to this box score? Now how does it look?
Or what if I take away a touchdown for this box score?
Now how does it look? And and so I do that for
everyone and kind of have like a a weak, you know, range of
outcomes for that. Could it have been even better
for. And so for Charbonnet where the
Seahawks suck on offense, they're not being productive.
You know they're not sustaining drives and so.
In in a world where they get that shit figured out and they
sustain some drives and like let's just say you get one goal
line carry for Charbonnet, a goal line carries about, you
know, more or less 3 expected fantasy points, you know, give
and take a little bit. So I mean, shoot, you give them
even three more expected fantasy points in a game and all of a
sudden my guy's like getting close to that 15 expected
fantasy point threshold. So I do think that Charbonnet is
someone where. He he could be surprising.
Not that the Cowboys defense is like the place you really want
to test it but like couldn't Couldn't you see it being a trap
A bit of a trap game for the cowboy.
We're getting reeled down in a narrative St. here.
This is what the here's I think here's maybe a simpler way.
If I just filter it down to the last two weeks, it pumps
Charbonnet and and those have been the weeks where Kenny
Walker is missed. It's 15 expected points per
game. And then let me just look at at
last week and sorry Mike, well, I I guess last week was 30
unexpected points and so last two weeks it's been at 15 with
the the Kenneth Walker injury more pronounced.
So like you're saying if if the offense can just play a little
bit better then then Chardonnay can benefit disproportionately.
So that that's sort of your upside case but still sort of I
I think it makes it punctuates your point that the offense is
the problem for him that he's got got this tremendous role and
and and without the expected points to go along with it.
Yeah, then I'm just looking real quick at what Charbonnet's
salary is here. And he.
He comes in at 6800 for the Showdown slate, so he's below
Tyler Walkett, well below DK Metcalf.
A little bit more expensive than Smith and Jigba, but yeah, that
looks like I I think I'll probably be.
I mean, I think some 51 Dallas onslaughts was from Chardonnay
into Flex to mop up a bunch of like garbage time PPR stuff.
Sounds interesting to me and and so I, I, I I don't think we can
go by this chart without mentioning Jonathan Taylor who
unfortunately announced that he's going to have surgery on
his tongue and they're hoping to get him back in two or three
weeks. And then I saw some man
skepticism in the sort of like fantasy doctor intersection of
social media where they're like what tongue surgery has somebody
backed in two or three weeks. I I don't think it works like
that and so I I'm I I'm sort of devastated.
Three of my three of my teams I was looking to get into the play
offs had had Jonathan Taylor so that would be a pretty pretty
devastating blow for me. But on the flip side, if
Jonathan Taylor is out, if he is done, done, then it goes without
saying Zach Moss sort of like steps fully back into the role
he had before and when he was getting 15 to 20 expected points
per game and in terms of waivers and he's probably the the chalk
and smash player of the week in DFS and so just just worth
mentioning I suppose. Yeah, yeah, I mean, Zach Moss
will be all the way back and. I mean, God, I feel like at this
point with the timeline for Taylor, like even hoping for
like, oh, we might come back in time for the fantasy play.
Like maybe he's in time for Week 16.
Like, at this point you're you're literally just dreaming
for the week 17 pipe dream where Jonathan Taylor's been
activated. It's week 17 and it's it's you
and only you with JT in the finals.
And you're hoping that he can just ride with you for all the
money, which I mean. What a what a story that'll be
if JT comes back for week 17 that that we we might just have
to to send the games and boost J TS projection just because of
how great the story would be if JT wins someone all the money.
I I hope that somebody is me, but it's not.
It's not feeling too lucky right now.
God, I I don't know how. At this point, I'm like, just
done with the regular season. Sweat.
Like, can we just Fast forward this to week 17?
Like I'm ready. Ready for the real.
I need more serotonin. Yeah, I didn't have anyone else
I really needed to touch on on this chart.
I mean we kind of no I, I I I think we've sort of covered it.
I think we've sort of covered it and so on to the tight end chart
and this is tight end routes as a percentage of team dropbacks.
And obviously what we want in tight ends is we want them to be
running lots of routes and not only do we want them running
lots of routes, we also want them to get targeted on a high
percentage of their reps. So on the left hand side, we've
got targets per route run. So you can see that K Dotson he
he leads all tight ends over the last four weeks in routes as a
percentage of team dropbacks dropbacks.
But he's only targeted on 13% of his of his drop backs and so
that's why he he's sort of leading the the league in in
this important metric. But then he's he's he's pretty
average the per in the other important metric and that's sort
of where you get the the K dot and sort of like outcome where
he's still not scoring that many points.
Yeah, I. You know again, not a ton that's
gonna be brand new fresh takeaways for us on this chart.
It's mostly wise here. I did have one thing I wanted to
to note here. I mean Travis Kelsey has had a
dip in his production. I mean it was is fine this last
week he put together a couple poor weeks and I'm I'm wondering
here is this. Finally, the the beginning of
the end. Or if you want to go Taylor
Swift themed, is This the End of an Era?
With Travis Kelsey and I, I mean, the problem is that he is
older and this has been this. He's gone from a a career a few
soft tissue injuries to one of many soft tissue injuries.
So definitely the the engine light is on for sure and it's
still like I I guess it's still encouraging that his he's up
there on the route percentage because I know at the start of
the year with with him coming back from injury he'd be super
low on routes and then would have to make up for it on a
target for a run. But it I think it is encouraging
that he's still out there a lot. But then the A dot of just 7.2
dot. It doesn't feel like a Travis
Kelsey A dot. No, no, I I think that we're
starting to get the signal that I mean and and you can kind of
see it with like normally it it wouldn't matter that you know
Travis Kelsey was the only option on the Chiefs.
The ball would just go to him anyway.
But we've had a couple weeks where it's like the Chiefs are
trying to figure out how does our offense work.
Now and it it felt like they didn't feel as confident that
the answer was Travis Kelsey. Whether that's you know him
dealing with some underlying injuries that we don't know as
much about or you know they they know they're just getting so
much attention on him from the defense, they have to go
elsewhere. My my big thing is I want to
know how are you treating him for playoff best ball 'cause
right now he's got the second highest ADP.
Does that seem right to you? You know, are are you
interested? Are you buying?
So he's got the the second highest and say say that again
he's got the second highest, he's.
The second highest ADP, it goes CMC then Travis Kelsey.
Oh, that is. That doesn't make any sense.
Right. That's what I thought too and on
like 1/2 PPR site where there's no like benefit to being getting
a tight end designation like I'm I probably I I'm leaning a
little bit less on the side of Travis Kelsey is done like I I
still think the underlying metrics are are are Travis
Kelsey like and I I I had a look at the A dot stuff and that's
still sort of in line with where he's been in in other years but.
There, there is no. There's no good reason for him
to go in the first round or or the second round probably.
I think, I think for just the playoff probability for the
Chiefs, you know he probably should still go in the first
round. I think actually him and Mahomes
should likely flip and and it should likely be that that the
chief player that goes in the first round is Mahomes and then
he goes near the back end with Kelsey going in the second.
But right now if if the price is hold, I'll have almost no
Kelsey, you know I'll get the times where he slides and then
I'll play the Chiefs through other other avenues.
But the the other tight end that I wanted to talk about is tight
end, who is kind of the new hotness he he's certainly been,
you know, heavily discussed and and fond over, especially by 1.
You know, specific Bill's loving aficionado.
That's Dalton Kincaid. So Kincaid has crept up, you
know with the knocks injury. He's certainly on the field way
more often. He's running a lot of routes,
taking a lot more snaps. He's got a 19% targets per route
run. A dot's pretty low though it's
below 6. You know one of the lowest a
dots of anyone up there? So I I wanted to kind of do a
Dalton Kincaid versus other tight ends for you and have you
tell me rest of season who you'd rather have as you're starting
tight end you just gotta lock them in.
So let's let's kick it off here. Dalton Kincaid or Jake Ferguson.
Rest of the season. So Dalton Kincaid or Jake
Ferguson. And so you're you're you're
telling me. You're telling me I should just
assume that the other Bills guide doesn't come back?
Ambiguous. It's Oh, OK, OK.
So if it like as I guess my question would be and and and
this is something for for me to sort of chew over as I say it.
Has Dalton Kincaid played so well that he's a genie out of
the bottle player that was like OK and what's his name the the
the Dawson Knox. The Dawson Knox coming back just
has no impact on on Dalton Kincaid coming back I'm I'm a as
somebody I actually have quite I I have quite a bit of Dalton
Kincaid in in FFPC just because of the tight end premium.
I'm a little bit nervous about that prospect and and I don't
think you have that risk with with Jake Ferguson and you sort
of like you put them you you put them side by side here and
they've got very similar a dots similar targets per run similar
routes and the big thing in Kincaid's favor I suppose would
just be that the bills that they tend to throw an absurd number
of times and so his counting stats assuming they all hold
will will be better and but I guess I'm a little bit nervous
about Dawson Knox coming back and maybe maybe maybe I I give
that I give some benefit of the doubt there just because it's
it's the bills and and and they do have that much more passing
volume So I I think that that's sort of how I lean there.
Do they have that much more passing volume than the Cowboys
am? Am I just miss miss cause 'cause
maybe they you're right you're right not not this year right
because they have all the the first down runs they they
they've been establishing so I think I think you're right to
check me there and and so yeah that I I guess then me being let
me let me actually you know that that's that's where I I don't
want to just I don't want to just shoot from the hip so who
has run more pass plays this year just as a sort of.
I know have run have 38 passes at a game this year whereas
Dallas. The bye Dallas was certainly
below them, but I believe after the bye their their number of
pass plays per game. It's 39 for the for Dallas
versus 38 for the Bills. It just for for 60 minutes.
So if I so if anything, Dallas are higher and and and and I
guess that that was just me. I'm I'm glad you asked me there,
'cause that was just me being lazy, 'cause that that's what I
was what I'd sort of like taught And And then I guess the
question would be, do you just think that Dallas stays there?
And I suppose you have to because you're looking at 11
games of data there. And so with all that being said,
then, then I think, yeah, it's, it's, it's Jake Ferguson, right?
So the the 18th round tight end better choice than the 11th
round tight end. OK, so that's one.
That's one we want over Dalton Kincaid.
Let's go to another eighteenth round slash undrafted tight end
Trey McBride. Trey McBride or Dalton Kincaid?
Trey McBride or over Dalton Kincaid.
And that is tricky too. And it's sort of like Trey
McBride. He has like the the the good
targets part run and but you have the concerns that the
Arizona offense is it's just like it's splittering right
where it it's an offense where Trey McBride and and and
Hollywood Brown are the the key receivers and and you have Kyler
coming back from the the ACL. And so I I'm pretty, I'm pretty
tied there. I I I'm not sure I'm not even
sure like I I think it's so hard to analyze whereas like if I
think like Arizona, like play reasonably well then it's
McBride just 'cause he's so important for them and but it's
so hard for me to like to call that definitively what I'm how
are you looking at that that. For for that one, I think I'm,
I'm gonna be heavier towards the McBride side.
I do think that one's close. But I got a couple reasons.
Number one is I I do think that McBride is the better player and
receiver than Dalton Kincaid. Yeah, I agree with that for
sure. Yeah, #2.
I think that the recent down games that we've seen from
McBride kind of feel like his his floor outcomes and we've
seen what his ceiling is and Dalton Kincaid just hasn't shown
us anywhere close to the type of ceiling.
That Trey McBride has had as it and it's not for like lack of
the Bills trying to get him that ceiling right.
Like there have been some games where they are just forcing
everything to Kincaid. So I just give me McBride
because I think the range of outcomes is is better, right?
But I I've got an our next guy, our next tight end, another one
that you could have gotten after Dalton Kincaid, Sam Laporta or
Dalton Kincaid. I yeah, I think that's that's
supporter, right. Yeah, Allen's Allen's a no
brainer. Slam dunk.
We just we're in here to twist the knife.
We're twisting the knife to the Dalton, right?
Yeah, this was like the Auntie Liam show.
We're just like, kidding on the bills all the time.
All right, got another one. This one you actually would have
had to take this tight end before Dalton Kincaid.
So, you know, there's there's an argument there, but Evan Ingram
or Dalton Kincaid rest the season, and Evan Ingram, well,
they feel like very similar players.
That's the same player, right? That's the same like Evan Ingram
is more established you don't have the the the potential for
Dawson Knox to come back and and and just sort of like new cue.
So it it is, it is Evan Ingram. But the fact that we just like
took a bunch of like late round Flyers over Kincaid that that
this isn't a great comparison for Ingram either.
No, no, those are those are the exact same player in my mind.
Like if you made me pay more for one or the other, I'm just gonna
take the one that's cheaper. I don't really care.
And then I've only got two more and then we'll we'll be done
with tight end, I promise. Dalton Schultz or Dalton
Kincaid? Which Dalton do you prefer?
Which Dalton? 'Cause cause Dalton Schultz has
a better quarterback than Dalton Kincaid does.
Oh, that's funny. Do do you?
Are are you traveling there? Or do you mean that?
Dalton Schultz has a better passing quarterback than Dalton
Kincaid does, and that's facts. I'll take that to the bank.
Yeah, that's fair. That's fair.
He he's he's better for his receivers which I I I think is
fair so I I probably am Schultz and.
I'm actually Kincaid on this one, and it's just really, it's
for the target competition. You know, Schultz in.
In games where Nico and Tank are both healthy, it really looks
like Schultz kind of takes a little bit more of a back seat.
When you're missing one or the other of them, it definitely
seems like Schultz steps up a little more, but for me it's
like. Kincaid is just how.
How bad do the Bills feel about the fact that they either need
to throw to Gabe Davis or they need to throw to Khalil Shakur
on the particular day of the game that they're playing,
'cause you know what, you can tell when they're like, Jesus,
why? Why is Gabe Davis running
routes? Then they just pepper Kincaid
with, like, an absurd number of targets.
So I'm probably Kincaid over Schultz, but I do think they're
close. Yeah, that is that that that's
tough for sure. But I I think you're right where
when, when, when you have those two back that that that's when
you've seen short sort of like fall off.
OK. I got the last one.
Last one, OK. Cole Comet or Dalton Kincaid?
Cole Comet or Dalton Kincaid And I think, I think that's Cole
commit where you you have the same sort of thing where like
they want them getting the ball a lot.
But he he he just seems to. Maybe this is just too caveman,
but he seems to be better at delivering the the bigger weeks.
Just 'cause he's better at scoring touchdowns.
Yes, it's 'cause Cole Comet is better at football than Dalton.
Kicking Cole Comet on an offense with like a good quarterback
would be absurd. You know the the Justin Fields
plague and I say this is a man who drafted quite a bit of
Justin Fields. Like it's so painful.
And I I don't know that it's fair to put it all on Justin
Fields. But I'll tell you, I've watched
a paid, extraordinarily close attention to the Bears this
season. And man.
Yeah, either that coaching staff is just the worst coaching staff
in the NFL by a country mile, or Justin Fields is like not a
competent NFL passer. But I think the most likely
answer is that it's a mix of both.
But I do think Kolkomat is a really, really good NFL tight
end. And that, yeah, I agree.
I I watching the game last night, the thing that struck me
was that was more that the game plan that Bears had was just
absolutely absurdly bad. Like this idea where like
they're just trying screen pass over screen pass over screen
pass like oh God, if if you teamed your quarterback is is is
not the best and needs help that's what you shouldn't do.
Yes, like you. Thank you.
Yeah. I I mean not to go on a bear's
tirade, but like. I'm serious, man.
Like, if we gave you the head coaching job, it wouldn't be as
bad. Because look, all you do like
with the problems that it looks like Justin Fields is having,
which is that he's not. Even when a guy's wide ass open,
he's just not confident that that's the thing he's supposed
to do. Like the system is clearly too
complex for him. It needs to be 1 like.
There there should be receivers that are running routes with 0
expectation of ever getting the ball.
The defense doesn't need to know that, but Justin Fields needs to
know that it's a one. Read and go like, is Kolkamet
open? This play that was designed for
Kolkamet? No, don't worry about processing
shit, 'cause he's he's staring at stuff where it's like, this
dude's open, but then he's like, oh, but I'm supposed to progress
through my reads and he's just, he's freaking himself out, man.
I I think last night from what I saw when they went to like a
more traditional drop back passing game I thought Fields
was like OK I I thought he was like he was finding open guys
like the fumbles are bad. The fumbles are definitely bad
but I I I am and and and what do I know.
I I'm definitely sort of leaning towards the the coaching staff
just being like awful. I yeah, I'm not ready to write
off fields yet. You know, I I'm leaning more on
that. It's the coaching staff.
But he unfortunately, it feels like if the coaching staff
doesn't get canned this offseason, you might end up with
the kind of player whose career just gets sunk right.
You know, like it might. He didn't get the guidance that
he needed, that he got coached out of being good.
Yeah, so. Anyway, that was a a little bit
of a tangent from our game of why Dalton Kincaid was a bad
pick and why you should feel bad for dropping Dalton Kincaid.
We'll we'll leave the tight end chart here and just gonna cross
check here and pot fryer mood I know he was he was heavily well
19% targets per run not the not the highest route percentage but
I know he he had he had the solid box score and but I guess
it's encouraging for him that he played well on on the limited
snap share and the as he can sort of work himself back into
or or rehab his way and and and get more healthy and and more
fit encouraging that he was like an important part of the offense
like right away. Yeah, as a guy who has Kenny
Pickett of one of his most drafted quarterbacks and Pat
Fryermuth is one of his most drafted tight ends.
If you told me that, I could get a spike week from Pickett and
Fryermuth in the playoffs. I would be so happy.
So here's to hoping. Also, I need the Nix Mark
Andrews. From this chart we Yeah, yeah,
and what what I I didn't want to point it out, but I I I had the
same thought. That's OK.
My my bad. And no, I it was it.
It you asked me. I I should have called it out.
And before we yeah. When?
When I I should have looked at it and and and and and.
But and and what I'm saying is we we both take responsibility.
So weighted targets per out run and it's like normal targets per
out run, but it rewards targets down the field more than
targets, short or short targets that are close to the line of
scrimmage. And then we sort of chart that
against fantasy points per game and then the color of the dot
corresponds to what route percentage they have.
Anybody that sticks out to you on the receiver chart?
Yeah, I'm not entirely sure. I mean, I know that Cooper Cup
re aggravated the ankle injury and this season.
I mean you, you start with a hamstring injury, he misses
time, he gets the ankle injury and now he's not 100%.
To me, this really smells like the beginning of the end.
And I I've got a little quote that I prepared from ATS Eliot
poem The Hollow Man and it's this is the way a career ends,
not with a bang but with a whimper.
And I may have taken a little bit of liberty with that quote,
but I'm just, I'm really worried that we're we're seeing him.
You know, he's an older player. He's dealing with all these
injuries. I I'm worried that next season,
you know, you still might have to pay pretty, pretty high
Cooper Cup prices. Like, I don't.
I don't really see him being able to slide out of the second
round, right? Like, even even if the fantasy
community at large gets on board that the best of Cooper Cup is
behind us. Just because of his absurd
ceiling in the past, like I don't, I don't think he can ever
really go that late to where I'm gonna feel good about the risk
I'm taking on him. So do you do you think?
I I think you're right. What's that?
Am I overblowing it? And I I I think that and if
you're right that he doesn't go out of the second I agree with
your analysis. So like it's like it's one of
those things where we always come in here and try to make new
ones analysis and I don't like the poem was was was sort of
like I think for like a joke. But your point isn't that you
think Cooper Cup is done and and that you bet your life savings
that Cooper Cup never flows it down in the NFL.
Like that's not what you're saying.
I think what you're saying is that with an ADP on the market,
sort of like anchored to his prior production, that it will
not appropriately price the risk that he has has passed his well
past his bestest player, right? That that's the argument.
Yeah, you you nailed it. And and it's not even to say
that he can't hit and outperform like.
There's still so much, you know, like there's there's a good
probability that he out, say he goes in the middle of the 2nd
next year. There's still a good probability
he outperforms that. You get a he's fully healthy.
The Rams offense takes a step forward.
They get a couple pieces, they finally have a draft pick or two
or whatever, and like they're a little better.
And Cup's healthy and he does. Not quite vintage Cooper's Cup
stuff, but good enough to pay off a second round tag, right,
That's for sure. Sure possible.
But what I think is also really possible is you get another like
kind of lost season like this where he deals with soft tissue
injuries for a good chunk of the year or even when he's back.
It's more of like not the entirely dominant.
Like Cooper Cup gets everything and everyone else is gonna like
it type of role. But where hey there's games
where Cooper Cup gets his 10 targets and does his thing but
now they've got Puka Tekua and you know they've got a running
back that they're happy to give a lot of work to.
And maybe you know I I just I think that those absolute
ceiling outcomes are pretty thin and I think that the downside
where he ends up producing like a you know 4th, 5th, 6th round
receiver it is pretty likely as well.
And so I I think like a more reasonable price for him next
year would be like in the fourth round or like where where you
know Keenan Allen was going before he got steamed up.
You know like older, older player were less certain about
his health and ability to still produce at a high level.
Right now I. I think that's a good comp next
year. You should treat Cooper Cook
like Keenan Allen. Cooper Cup is Keenan Allen next
year and and and I think that Keenan's season this season is
like a great yeah region of like and it can still hit.
It's not that you're never allowed to draft Cooper Cup
again. It's just like pretend at the
start of this year Keenan Allen was going in the early to mid
second like you would have been you would have been all the way
out. I'm gonna wait for him to fall.
Or if he doesn't fall underweight, right?
Yeah. You just never would have taken
him and you would have been right, like the specific outcome
be damned. Like you would have been right
based on the probability you know.
So it sort of begs the question though like I'm when I looked up
at when I looked up Cooper Cooks age to see that next year is
sort of his 31 year old season and the players that the players
at Google also true out of me as sort of like similar age.
Devante Adams is older. Stephon Diggs is older.
Like are we are we, should we be pricing in age risk, heightened
age risk with those guys as well.
I I think that's AI think that's a very important point and I I
actually was doing a little exercise of who were the top
five drafted wide receivers going to be next season.
And so let me let me give you the five that I kind of got to
who I think the market is gonna take as the first five receivers
off the board next year. And then you you let me know if
there's any that you think the market's gonna do and we can go
from there. So I think next season we're
still gonna see Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase squarely in the
top five, right. Their young, elite talents just
had some run bad with injury and quarterback injury this season.
I don't. I think even though Tyreek Hill
is going to be older next season, it's going to be
unavoidable. Like after what he.
Just has to be true. He just has to be.
Yep. And then I think that you get,
you know, the the young ascending alpha.
You know, CD Lamb is the new Cooper Cup.
This, the power slot, that Cooper Cup, that role that
dominated the NFL and you know, was able to accrue so many
receptions and yards. Like that's what CD Lamb is
playing in the Cowboys offense right now.
And so I certainly think he goes in the top five, especially with
the end of this season he's having.
And I think that A.J. Brown has done it for enough
seasons now. We're just like, OK, we AJ
Brown's in the top five forever, you know until he gets old
enough that he has his first like fall off season.
But I think he's gonna be a staple.
Do you think those top five are are pretty reasonable though,
for what the market does at the start of next basketball season?
So I actually did a similar exercise with what's his name
with on the fantasy football report that rotaviz do I think
you were on that show a couple weeks ago.
I was. I was this Sunday evening and I
had it. I I had four or the five the
same. Where I was different was I had
an Aman Raw as 5 instead of A.J. Brown.
I think that's really reasonable my.
Yeah, I was about to say. I think yours is reasonable too.
My reason, and I had I had thought about having Aman Rai in
there. My reason for not having him in
there is because I'm pretty certain that we're gonna get a
Jamison Williams explosion here to finish the season and go into
the playoffs. And I think that what we're
going to have next season is that the market realizes that
there's ambiguity as to who the best wide receiver is on the
Lions. Not, I think Aman RA will still
very likely be the best fantasy wide receiver for that team, but
I think the best NFL wide receiver on that team is
probably Jameson Williams. And so I think that that level
of ambiguity is going to make Amman raw a little bit cheaper
according to the market, which might might mean that that's
it's finally a year where I can have more Amman Raw cause I've
been kind of perpetually A fader at his.
Point and I I guess my my my argument for having him there
is, 'cause he is, he is still young.
He is still like ascending and like insanely good like.
I I think that that's like. Hey, yeah, to me it's
unavoidable that Amirah is is like an elite receiver and so I
guess my my counter would be that if if like Jameson Williams
also is an elite receiver, then to me that's just like sort of
wheels up for that offense and and and and.
Might be more good for the both of them rather than like a
negative for Eater, you'd you'd view it more as like a kind of
Miami situation where we had Tyreek Waddle going 1-2 in in
the first and second round, you know?
In in in that scenario I I I mean I think we have to see the
Jameson Williams like nuclear and stretch to the I I still
have to see it to believe it and I I agree with you that he's
really good. And but that that's how I think,
well that's what I think would be like efficient and it it's
it's easier for me to predict what I think is efficient than
like exactly how other people react.
That's always what I struggle with.
Yeah, absolutely. And so I I think then we can
pretty squarely agree then on our top six, you know we just
got A.J., Brown and Monroe flip flop slight differences and then
I. Think I'd have CD Lamb number
six just 'cause you're a Cowboys fan.
But guys that I liked as as dark horses to upset the order of the
market, guys that that would be drafted outside that top five or
six now but that would would actually crack into it with
their performance next year. And so I I've my my favorite one
I've I've mentioned on this show before but is Garrett Wilson.
I just need any kind of quarterback play and I think
that guy's like like I I think top six is like very, very
reasonable. I think like top three is
squarely in the range of outcomes for him.
Do you have anyone else that you think might be able to crack
into that elite five or six wide receivers?
No, I don't like I I I think that Tank Dale is like sort of
like a is. I don't think he's a first run
receiver next year, but I think he's like sort of a a dark horse
where if he keeps playing the way he's playing that he's gonna
go really high next year. Really high.
Yeah. I think, I think the market's
gonna be real excited about Tank Dell and right, rightfully so,
guys, right. So yeah, I think that's a good
call out. The other one I have is is Chris
Olave. Yeah, I I was just about to
mention him too. Go ahead.
I just I think he's run a little bad this season is all like the
the peripherals are still there like look at his weighted
targets per route. You know like the guy like he
he's had balls bounce off his helmets he got a unlucky
concussion this last game. Like I don't know man I you you
probably get Derek Carr there one more year maybe.
I I mean like it's not like we haven't seen Derek Carr support
you know elite receivers before. Like look at what he did with
Devonta Adams last year. You know look at look at what
you know he did with Amari Cooper early in his career and
Michael Crabtree. Like I don't think it's
unreasonable to say that the talent level of Chris Olave is
good enough that Derek Carr could get it together with him.
So that's another one and I I think that's one that I'm
actually him and Garrett Wilson. I mean, I think Garrett Wilson,
the market probably gets Privy to, you know, like, oh, he got a
new quarterback. It's fine.
But Chris Alabi's the one where it's gonna the situation's gonna
look mostly unchanged. And so I think people are gonna
be more anchored to the specific result we got this season where
the actual fantasy production has just been all right.
It hasn't been, you know, the huge breakout that people were
hoping for. And I wasn't hurt if he didn't
get the concussion last week. He would have like went
absolutely nuclear, like 200. He was easy, right?
He he only had a 55% root share because of the concussion, but
he still had 7 catches for 114 yards.
Yeah, dude, dude was going for 200.
He was absolutely cooking him. Yeah.
And so I think we were getting that positive regression there
and just quit short unfortunately.
I mean it could could be fortunate for for future
basketball shares so I'm I'm keeping my fingers and toes
crossed that the market let's Chris Olave slide a little bit
to start next season so. And then the other question I I
know we we sort of touched on Keenan Allen already well where
where do you think he goes next year like after a stellar season
but he's another year older. I I think so much of this season
and the specific outcome for Keenan Allen it is like the
story of his whole career right when when you get the Keenan
Allen huge games historically has been like oh, Mike Williams
was hurt or oh, Austin Eckler was hurt and it's it's just that
they don't have another option and and like the the most recent
Chargers game we saw like illustrated why it's happening
the way that it's happening because they literally can't.
Like the offense won't move if they don't throw to Keenan.
So they either lose the game in extremely embarrassing fashion
where they just put up like under 100 total yards of offense
and they just didn't throw to Keenan enough, or they lose the
game in like more respectable fashion and Keenan gets like 20
targets or something absurd. So I think because you're
basically looking for the Chargers either to remain so
wholly incompetent as an organization where they don't do
something to rectify their lack of weapons that are functional
on the offense next season. Like if they continue and you
know Keenan's the only man in town, then yeah, Keenan probably
deserves like a 2-3 turn price tag where you've got the Aegis
baked in there a little bit. So he's not going with the elite
guys, but and if they add, you know, Mike Williams is healthy
and they shoot Quinton Johnston to the moon and like get a
different receiver in there and leave him in in orbit, then
maybe Keenan's in like the solid be in the fourth round, like
beginning, beginning of the 4th. Does that seem reasonable to
you? I'm just off and on.
Like if the Chargers don't get a receiver who can catch, they
send it back. And so you you have met the the
2-3 turn is that 2-3 turn with no changes to the offense, but
like beginning of the 4th, if they get Mike Williams back or
some other some other target there that's competent.
So he's Kenan Allen. He's second in the league in
receiving points both total and per game in in in PPR points and
for among receivers. So like it's like that feels
fair. Like it's obviously he is a year
older but when he's played so well and and and and scores so
many points. It's like how how much, how, how
late can you get that sort of production?
Yeah, that's that's why I like it.
It feels a little weird to be like, oh, he's just gonna be
beginning of the 4th, even if they get Mike Williams back and
things look like a more normally distributed offense.
But it's like just knowing that ceiling is there in that player.
And sure, you increase the risk level a little bit.
But like, need I remind you we drafted Jerry fucking Judy at at
the beginning of the fourth round.
Like if you're telling me that Keenan doesn't belong in the
beginning of the fourth round, but we're taking guys like Jerry
Judy in the beginning of the 4th and Christian Watson like, no
thanks, like I'll. I mean, beginning of the fourth
I think is the latest. You're gonna get Keenan that
one, yeah. I think that's that's the floor
on this price and and and I I I'm agreeing with you that it's
somewhere between. Beginning in the 4th and end of
the second, I I think I think that's right.
I think mid turd is like it's pretty appropriate.
Yeah. I I just hope that some chuckle
fuck again spreads the rumor that Keenan is a cut candidate.
Whoever. By the way, if whoever was the,
you know, patient zero for that rumor, like, holy shit, I mean,
like if you actually believe you, Sir.
Yeah, if you believed what you were selling.
Oh my God, Like, I I don't even know.
I don't have polite words to say to you if you actually believe
what you're selling, but if you were just doing it to tank the
Keenan price, like, God bless you, 'cause I got a bunch of
like 5th and 6th round Keenan off of that.
But man what a hilarious like just absolute non ball knowing
level take like I think the Chargers are gonna cut their
very best player. Should get the fuck out of here.
What are you talking about? Sorry that one.
Just when I saw that one tilting, that one tilted me.
OK. So I feel, I feel like we've
sort of covered everything to cover in this chart and on you.
You're happy with me to move on? Yeah, yeah, let's hit the next
one. There's a couple guys here that
I had. OK, so it's the same chart
except we've got the guys who are in between 70 to 85
color-coded tree and different ways.
Same chart though. And as you as we sort of note
every week and Tyree Kill sort of messes with the the scaling
both on the vertical and the horizontal axis.
Yeah, Tyreek is is something else, man.
I don't know if you've started watching the in season Hard
Knocks for the Dolphins, but I. I haven't.
It's a shame. He's yeah.
Tyree Kill is I mean they're they're doing a lot to try and
fix fix his image do a little little PR.
But he I I still think he's probably an awful person.
I don't know. I don't actually know the man.
But I, I, you know, do know what I've heard about how he treats
women and children in his life. But man, he's totally
differently built than other people.
He's so, so ridiculous. Yeah, I mean, you can't can't
say anything else about him. There's there's nothing else
worth saying. Like the dude is is, like
clearly the best receiver in the league at this point.
Right. It it is pretty insane how fast
he is and and and and strong for his size.
Yeah, Yeah. So I I thought that this was a
really interesting you know I came upon a a fork in the road
here with Nico Collins Tank Dell I I just botched that attempt at
poetry by the way but but we've got the Nico Collins Tank Dell
like both very similar in weighted targets per route run
both very similar in fantasy points per game and I'm I'm
truly not sure where I fall on this.
I know that the sentiment and that lots of the advanced
metrics would point to Tank Dell as being the if you had to pick
just one Tank Dell. Do you think that's, is that
correct? Are they are they closer than
the market thinks are are they truly like as identical as they
look on this chart? How do you parse Tank Dell
versus Nico Collins? And.
I get I guess again to go back to sort of like the sort of
Longview stuff and I think Tank Dell was was even even though
the size and and and the testing stuff doesn't go in his favor.
I think he was a pretty he was a pretty good productive college
player. I need to refresh my memory a
little bit and. Whereas I know that Nico Collins
was a bit more of a like, he had a little bit more struggle in in
college when it came to production.
And so to me with them both being young that's sort of like
something along the lines of where I I lean on and but it's
still it's still like ambiguous enough where we don't you can't
have true confidence in it and. I'm sort of like I I want to
vote I guess at this point and I I think I, I, I sort of lean
tank over Nico. But it's like does that mean
that I I think tank should be in the 2nd and then Nico is like in
the seventh or something like or or or like in the 5th or or
something like that. I I don't know if we've seen
enough to like say that definitively and.
I guess might to to be a bit wishy washy.
I I want to boat and slight lean towards tank regardless of cost.
But then with the knowledge that Nico will likely be a good bit
cheaper he should obviously be like a a pretty important part.
I think he he he should be a pretty good target, too.
Yeah. You ready for me to fuck up the
market next year for Texans? OK, go ahead.
All right. I don't think there's any
difference as far as quarterback play for the Cincinnati Bengals
and the Houston Texans. I think that the number one wide
receiver on the Bengals is the best of the four wide receivers.
But I don't think T Higgins is very different than Nico Collins
and we we obviously both agree that Tank Dell is very good.
So I don't see any reason that CJ Stroud should really like
leave the fifth round. You know Burrow Burrow was
pretty strongly a staple of like the 4-5 turn when ADP settled
and you know Justin Fields of course you get like the elite
rushing upside was you know in the that 4th, 5th area and then
you got Trevor Lawrence in the 6th, which I I never agreed with
that price that was just silliness.
But I I kind of feel like CJ Stroud like the buck should stop
at the end of the fifth round. And then I I think that likely
with some you know correlation driving the market there a
little bit, you're going to get like a tank Dell probably 223
turn and then you'll likely have like a Nico Collins.
Basically I bet you end up with Stroud settling at like the
five, six turn. And I bet you end up with Nico
Collins, just like Anchored just like attached at the hip to
Stroud. His people try and get that
stack and so that's there you go all all three of them.
I. I think we're pretty close there
like I, I, I, I, I sort of settled a fifth round for Nico
and and and so but you said that you you think that people should
be seeing T Higgins and Nico. Exact same pretty pretty pretty
close yeah. And I get I have AI have hard
time with that but I don't I don't know if that's just me
anchoring to like a prior view as of of T Higgins.
Like I, I, I sort of see like T Higgins as like just the small
steps down from like an NFL superstar.
And like, not a superstar, but like.
An exceptionally good player and I'm having a hard time getting
there with Nico. And can you and and maybe if
maybe I'm the only one who's having a hard time, but maybe
maybe there are others. It sounds like the market is
having a hard time there too. Can you sort of like, help me
understand then why Nico sort of belongs up there?
Yeah, I mean, I don't. So #1 Nico has we.
We've kind of perpetually been on the oh gosh, if Nico just
gets a quarterback. Oh, you know, like, the market's
been excited about Nico as a prospect since he came into the
league, and now he finally has a quarterback and he's immediately
elevated. And just as a comparison, like
if if you didn't know who Nico Collins and T Higgins were and
you just ran into them both on the street, they're pretty
identical. Humans.
Nico is 6 foot four, 215 lbs with a 34 inch arm length.
T Higgins is 6 foot four 216 lbs with a 34 foot arm length.
They're the same age. T Higgins is a lot slower.
He he runs A46, Nico Collins runs a 4-5.
Nico has much better burst. T Higgins is 16th percentile
burst. Nico Collins is 76th percentile
burst and so I mean really the you want to know what the big
difference is is that T Higgins went to Clemson and so that was
like and Nico calls went to Michigan.
Not that Michigan's like a a small school by any means, but
like you know the the big Clemson brand of T Higgins is is
strong. And you know, he had, he was
attached to Joe Burrow and he was there before Jamar Chase got
there. And so we have all of this
anchoring from, you know, previous production from T in
the NFL and this is really the first opportunity we've got from
Nico to produce with a real quarterback of the NFLI think
they're the same player. I think it's basically the same
player and so and I. Guess my my pushback would be so
Nico Collins, he did go to, he did go to Michigan and and that
did sort of dampen down some of his receive his his overall
production. But then he only I get he only
had like is is in 2018 it was 23% and market share of
receiving yards in his last year was 24% and then it was it was a
little higher with the touchdown stuff.
So I guess he ended up with his last year 28% dominator rating
and where's you look at? T Higgins 16% I'm just
abbreviating and I know it's just combination.
Once that 27% dominator in his an 1830% dominator.
So even though he went to like a better school or a more like a
more name brand school, he did have like the better market
share numbers. Like his his his production
profile was much better. Yeah, it it it was better.
It's certain like I you certainly couldn't win an
argument saying that Nico Collins college production was
better than T Higgins College production, right.
But I I just think the the way I'd like to play it is I bet you
that T Higgins is more expensive than Nico Collins this next
season. I don't think there's very much
of a difference at all in the player profiles.
Maybe let's just say that T Higgins is better than Nico
Collins, right? Like, he he he had a much better
college career and right, what? But what?
But wouldn't you say what they're gonna do or what they've
done in the NFL is certainly more important?
Than right. Yeah yeah at this stage and and
so at this point we get one season here with Nico where it's
like OK, like this could be a thing and so I'd prefer to buy
Nico next season. I mean it it's probably it's
either the Nico price I don't see being a stable price next
season for the rest of his career it's gonna be 1 where it
was either way too high. And you're right Nico Collins is
just like he's whatever. He's a you know functional NFL
receiver but not a star and Tank Del just runs away with it.
Tank Del just crushes right or you're gonna get like, Oh my
gosh, CJ Stroud is him like he's him at the Himmerson and Nico
Collins and Tankdale should have been first and second round
picks. And so the way that you're
rewarded in best ball with like when you're right in a in a way
like that where all of a sudden you get a player that's way out
producing their costs. Like I lose so little when Nico
Collins just is 1/8 round value and I took him in the 4th and I
gained so much when he's a second round value and I took
him in the fourth. I'd prefer to do it that way.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I I I agree with you there.
I mean I I was probably getting too like anchored to like a no
no he's not too good split in terms of like him, him being
attached to an offense, a passing offense, we expect to be
really good still. It'll still only be AI guess a
fourth year player. So.
And still not not I guess not young not old and then potential
we're we're we're potentially seeing like a third year
breakout that there there's enough upside there that that it
could that it could hit. I I I think that makes sense.
I is this there's no way this is correct.
Hang on. I'm verifying A stat.
OK, what if I told you that Nico Collins and Tank Dell are
basically the same age. They're only six months apart.
Tank Dell is like the oldest. Tank Dell is Vayliss Jones, but
he's actually good. You know where Vayliss Jones is?
Like the oldest rookie ever? Tank Dell is super old, but he's
he's good. And and yeah, Phil in the chat
says Tank will go higher 'cause his name is cool, 100 percent,
100%. But yeah, then basically being
the the same age. But Tank Dowser, rookie, And
that Nico is in a turd NFL season?
That That's pretty nuts. Yeah.
All right.
That was all I really had on. Yeah.
Chart. I mean like little little Devo
Samuel Spike week game Devo lives.
But you know, everyone, everyone knew that we, we knew that Devo
still had that in his bag of tricks.
Yeah, yeah, nothing. Nothing too deep to get into
here and then. I guess worth pointing out that
Rashi Rice, they had that there was that positive report that
wasn't explicitly about Rashi Rice where the chief said, Oh
yeah, we want to look at all of our stuff and we we we need to
get our young playmakers involved more.
We need to to like make sure that they're in the best spot
and then immediately Rashi Rice leads the team or leads
receivers in snaps and routes and rewards the Chiefs with a
big. With a big touchdown that helps
them win the game. I I think that that that's
pretty encouraging but that's only a little bit of new news.
We we've sort of been banging the drum on Rashi Rice all all
season. I I think.
I think the rice is finished cooking and for you to eat baby
I I. It's ready to cook to to be
added to the main dish is OK. OK, hang on.
Let me let me spin you a playoff best ball narrative here Or or
not. I I should say the playoffs for
the regular best ball season is Rashi Rice the Prince who has
promised instead of Sky More. You know this with all the Sky
more hype last season. Like we're we're tripping over
ourselves. But are we actually gonna get.
I mean, Raashi Rice is almost as cool a name as Sky.
I mean, I know that Sky More is the sickest name for an NFL wide
receiver ever, but Raashi Rice, pretty good name.
I mean, I don't know. I could see him smashing in in
the playoffs. It feels like a pretty sort of
like typical Prototype rookie. At receiver, where he's played
real well at the start of the year but doesn't get the snap
share. And then the last six games he
gets the snap shares and just like like rips, rips off insane
games. It definitely feels like the the
prototype of that, like it does. I can't think of a better set up
for like a a true like scorched air playoff run.
OK and and now with respect to playoff best ball, can I can I
hit you with a a verbal meme here.
OK, stacking this is this is the Drake Hotline Bling meme.
Just for reference. Stacking Pat Mahomes with Travis
Kelsey. Stacking Pat Mahomes with Rashi
Rice. So yeah, that's That's the move
for playoff basketball. Feels, feels pretty appropriate.
But yeah, definitely. I mean super, super promising
what we're seeing from him. And I kept saying this this
offseason about Raashi Rice in my, you know, super basic film
bro analysis and just trying to, like, get up to speed on all the
rookies. But watching Raashi Rice and
like looking at how he got his production in college, I kept
telling anyone who would listen to my stupid ass takes that he
to me looked like slow motion CD Lamb underwater.
And I didn't mean it, as bad as that sounds like, it sounds
like. I'm just saying, like this guy's
so painfully slow that he can't play.
But I I meant it as like it would be weird to be like this
guy's CD lamb, you know, but like.
He does in the context of this comes from the biggest Dallas
found by in the world. Yeah, this is the only.
Way I can comp him to a Cowboys player.
You need the incredible, You need the context, man.
So yeah, I was saying he's underwater slow motion CD Lamb.
But like they operate in a similar way.
Like I I saw him be successful on similar type of routes that
CD was had like good after the catch from the splash zone type
of plays. So that's what I always saw is
like and I so I I thought he could fit into the juju role.
When he got drafted I was like this makes all sense in the
world. This is like someone in the juju
role that's actually good at the shit they wanted juju to do.
And then they they haven't used them so far.
But now I I think we're this, this feels like probably the
strongest candidate for like rookie receiver that you've got
to have down the stretch. Is there a different, I mean,
Tank Dell, obviously. Is there someone else you could
think of that sets up to be the better playoff best ball hammer
than Rashi Rice? I don't think there's anyone
that sets up better than him. No, I I I I I don't obviously
tank Dell. And he he sets up pretty well
too. And we've talked about him quite
a lot, but I I don't think there's anybody even nearly
close. No, like not not Zay Flowers,
not JSN. Although you know, we, we like
what we've seen from both those guys, but JSN is just on a non
functional offense, you know, more or less.
I I have seen now that you mentioned JSN, I did see some
pretty encouraging quotes where Aunt Pete Carl also said about
him. And JSN and he was like, listen,
he, I think he's our best player.
We just got to get him the ball that that's like that's why our
offense has been bad because we haven't gotten JSN the ball
enough. What it seemed like he was
saying, which is like pretty encouraging and I I saw that
too. And I I do believe that Pete
believes that. I'm just not convinced that they
have the. I don't.
I don't know that they'll actually execute on it.
They might believe it, you know. That might be their plan.
Yeah. We wanna get JSN the ball.
One extra target 6, right? Yes.
Let's go. Historical anomalies in the chat
had a good call out. Addison as well.
Could be that good, you know? Yeah.
Yeah, sorry, I'm not. I'm not trying to ignore those
guys. No, no, the the Josh Dobbs
turning back into a pumpkin game was depressing.
I I was having so much fun rooting for Josh Dobbs.
I like it's not. Sorry, before we go too much
away from Rishi Rice, I had one little note that I had on him
based on your sort of slot stuff.
So he actually didn't put his Most of his extra snaps in Week
12 came from wideout. It was actually one of his
lowest slot snap rate of the season.
But. And it was as high as that wide
out snap rate of the year? So I mean, even he was super
productive with that, so hopefully the Chiefs are so.
To me that's like encouraging in that like they've they've like
their biggest like issue with him was that he that they didn't
see a way to use them in anything else in the slot and
now he's like a they can put them all over the field, Yeah
move, so move around. Yeah that that seems really
bullish. I'm you.
You had me on the Rashi Rice train this offseason.
I hadn't had a lot until you and I did our first couple drafts
together. And then after I had started
drafting with you, you did get me on to Rashi Rice.
So I came in underweight on him. But I do have you to thank for
helping me rectify that, because I I got a certain feeling that
we're going to want some Rashi Rice.
You know come week 17, I've fingers crossed, Fingers
crossed. Last guy on this chart, I mean,
I guess honorable mention Jalen Hyatt.
I talked about him a little bit earlier, but I don't think it's
very fantasy relevant for this year.
But future years, definitely keep an eye on on Jalen Hyatt.
But the guy that I really wanted to highlight here is Jayden Reed
who has got to be close to graduating.
I got, I got to think like a couple more weeks.
He graduates this chart and moves up to the big boys running
running over 70% routes because he's their best receiver.
Like, I know that Christian Watson had a breakout game.
I know that Romeo Dobbs is all right.
Jayden Reed's the most dynamic player on that team.
Like they're they're getting in the ball on and around.
Like he's able to get open. He can make plays in space.
Like he's he's able to do it all.
I'm a huge, huge Jayden Reed. Stan think he's.
I think he's hashtag good at the game.
So I'm looking at sort of like the last five weeks of his
rootshare and a A sort of all over the map like week 9 or week
888%, week 945%, rootshare, week 1056%, week 1177, then week
1279. So it's like up here, then down
here, then back up. And it's not just like one week
off stuff like it. It's sort of weird.
And I'm I'm I'm having a hard time interpreting the
interpreting that and but I agree with you that as he plays
better like the IT definitely puts the impetus to to push him
up into the higher higher root share.
I I think he's following you know he he's not the offense
isn't quite as good and you know I I don't think that he'll be
able to get to the level of production that we might be able
to see from Rashi Rice as like his ceiling to close out the
ceiling or close out the season rather.
But I do think he's really exciting.
I think that we're almost in the you can't put the genie back in
the bottle territory with Jaden Reed With respect to the Packers
and and their usage of him. I like I would say that let's
let's look next week and his usage and I think that if he's
above that you know 70% threshold again I think that.
We're done. Definite A trend established.
Yeah, I think we're done seeing him be in that low, you know
like 40 to 50% range that he has.
He has had that this season where he just wasn't on the
field a ton, But I think the team there, there was a quote
from Lafleur as well where he said something to the effect of
like that he he's got that dog. He I I swear he said.
He's a dog. The floor said.
And I quote He's got that dog in him.
So I'm I'm excited for Jayden Reid going forward.
I honestly wouldn't. It wouldn't shock me if in Week
17 it turns out to be Jayden Reid as the guy you need instead
of Rashi Rice. If if I had to bet money on it
right now, one over the other, I guess I'll take Rashi rice.
But I don't even know. Like, if you gave me odds on
Jayden Reid, like if you gave me, you know, three to two or
something, I might I might take Jayden Reid.
Just just 'cause I think they're both probably around around the
same. I like Rashi rice a little
better, but I'm. I'm pretty high on Jayden Reid.
OK. I mean I think the the point of
the taking the Chiefs player over the Packers player has sort
of been like beaten to death. It's been overdone and like
people will will just like blindly take your grandmother if
she plays for the Chiefs. But I I do think in this point
in this context it it it sort of matters quite a bit where they
they they truly are like they're crying out for another receiver
and and mahomes it he he is like he is somebody who makes players
better whereas I'm not sure Jordan love is is that but I get
in the context of like randomness and is it if one guy
gets the spike week or not I get that but I it does seem like to
me that Rice has a has a decently higher chance but
that's just our argument. No, no, I I agree.
I I definitely would prefer Rice to read.
But I I think they're both interesting.
Definitely got. If I see either of them on my
rosters as we get into the playoffs, I'm I'm pretty happy
and I'd love to see them both. And yeah, I I agree there.
And with that, I think we we've ran way, way over our definitely
great conversations, but we ran way over our like sort of like a
lot of time. We we went super off the beaten
path. We went for like at 150, never
mind at 90. Yeah, you you tuned in for the
stats. Little did you know you were
just gonna get Sack and Draco chopping it up with a little bit
of stats. The the chat can have a little
bit of stats as it OK I I I think we should call it there
and thanks every thanks to everyone for tuning in and we
will see actually I I'm in Ireland next week and this is my
way reminding you so you'll probably get like a a special
special Co host. All right.
Yeah. So I will see everyone next
Tuesday and we'll have a a special guest to help me out,
all right?