1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:05,280 Thanksgiving football week is behind us. 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:10,960 Only two more weeks until Fantasy playoffs begin and Kyron 3 00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:13,720 Williams is back with a vengeance. 4 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,640 We'll take you through all the charts and relevant data here on 5 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:24,960 Stat Chasing, Pat Fryer, Helmo. This is why. 6 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:27,960 This is why I'm hot Anita. Hand job. 7 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:31,760 Fix your sight, Jamar, and also play chase you. 8 00:00:32,439 --> 00:00:37,240 Can't handle the heat? It looks like we're finally at 9 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:47,000 this point. You're right, All right. 10 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:50,840 Just a couple more weeks to go, Draco, tell We're into the 11 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:54,320 playoffs, get to see how all of our best ball teams shake out 12 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:59,600 and and the real sweat begins. Yeah, just two more weeks to go 13 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:04,080 and I guess main event regular seasons behind us. 14 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:08,840 So we are, we are definitely in in the late or in the end game 15 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:12,560 of the season for sure. Yeah absolutely. 16 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:16,880 It's it's still I I want to say like just this touch too early 17 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:20,440 to kind of start doing the post mortem type stuff and you know 18 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:22,960 doing some look back type analysis. 19 00:01:22,960 --> 00:01:27,320 But I think it's also right about the appropriate time where 20 00:01:27,320 --> 00:01:32,160 we can start that way too early. Look forward, you know, maybe to 21 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:34,680 what next year's best ball drafts are going to look like. 22 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:38,520 Only prime time to start discussing playoff best ball and 23 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:42,360 all of those fun contests, which I'm sure will will tease out. 24 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:44,080 Yeah. I mean, it's interesting, isn't 25 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:45,760 it? Because we're 12, We're 12, 26 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,360 fourteenths out of the way. True. 27 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:50,760 True to the normal, the regular season. 28 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:56,320 But then each individual week in in in the playoffs ends up 29 00:01:56,320 --> 00:02:00,160 having its own, like, outsize. Meaning, like it has this. 30 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:05,600 It's it new like? Greater importance imprinted on 31 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:08,560 everyone's brain. Like, for the life of me, I 32 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:12,080 can't remember which random wide receiver went nuclear in Week 33 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:16,520 11, but I'll I'll never forget that Mike Evans, out of nowhere, 34 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:20,640 had the massive week. Yeah, absolutely. 35 00:02:20,640 --> 00:02:22,680 That's that's funny that you bring that up, 'cause that was 36 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:26,280 something I was going to talk about later today. 37 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,120 I won't spoil the spot that I was going to bring up that 38 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:33,480 specific phenomenon with respect to, but I really, I was thinking 39 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:36,800 about that in the context of we pretty much get like, I want to 40 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:39,960 say it's the first three weeks of the season or so. 41 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:43,720 And that's just so vividly imprinted on our brains of like 42 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:46,840 this is what these players are. We have three weeks now that's 43 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:49,160 enough data, surely, right? That's going to tell us what's 44 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:52,040 going on. And so everyone gets this idea 45 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:55,800 of this is what these players are and that really carries A 46 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:58,480 disproportionate amount of weight for a big chunk of the 47 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:00,480 season. And then you kind of get like 48 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:02,680 you're talking about, you get that vividness bias from what 49 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:05,720 goes on at the end of the season and in the fantasy playoffs, 50 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:07,920 right. And then of course the the real 51 00:03:07,920 --> 00:03:10,440 life playoffs, you know, you you still get a little bit of that 52 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:13,960 trickling over. And so the guys that do their 53 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,520 best work in this kind of middle stretch of the season, often 54 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:19,600 times I feel are are forgotten a little bit. 55 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:22,920 So it's important to just, you know, kind of remain balanced in 56 00:03:22,920 --> 00:03:26,840 your analysis and make sure that you're not over weighting, you 57 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:29,960 know, performances that came at a specific time of the season. 58 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:33,680 Yeah, agreed. Like, it's funny because 59 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:37,960 obviously we are when you're drafting younger players or or 60 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:40,240 players that are injured at the start of the year that that 61 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:41,640 that's sort of what you're playing for. 62 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:45,360 But in the absence of that, there's literally like if, if, 63 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:49,840 if it's like a third or fourth year or or older player, like 64 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:53,720 there's a there's just literally no no difference football wise. 65 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:59,120 Obviously outsize importance, money wise, but yeah, it's just 66 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:03,360 how much go ahead, how how much can you really control for 67 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:06,840 getting that outside production in those weeks where it matters, 68 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:08,200 right. And and like you mentioned, 69 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:11,480 really the only thing you can do to control for that is, well, 70 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:14,640 I'm going to draft a bunch of rookies because their production 71 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:17,880 historically has increased as seasons go go on. 72 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:20,880 So. Yeah, and and and obviously you 73 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:24,200 shouldn't. I mean, this is to me 74 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:26,280 overwhelming obvious that you shouldn't. 75 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:32,200 Logically, you shouldn't estimate a player's value to be 76 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:37,680 better just because they had the week 17 game like that, that 77 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:41,480 that, shouldn't that, that should only be viewed in inside 78 00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:45,920 the context of like the whole season rather than oh, they had 79 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,840 the the Week 17 spike week, this is a spike week player. 80 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:54,240 Like, yeah, I know. I the pertinent analysis you can 81 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:58,200 do with respect to that is more so like what shape a player's 82 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:00,120 specific distribution curve takes. 83 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:03,520 Like there are some players that are certainly more prone to 84 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:06,680 having their production in big bursts right those those spike 85 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:10,280 weeks that we're after and there's guys that are are more 86 00:05:10,280 --> 00:05:14,160 likely to be the steady Eddy type performers which you know 87 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:18,040 and and I really I think this is a a part of analysis where you 88 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:21,400 know certainly people have talked about it but and it it 89 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:24,600 almost got you know memes to death with oh player X is better 90 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:26,440 in basketball. But I actually think that's 91 00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:30,280 pretty important analysis and it's something where I won't I 92 00:05:30,280 --> 00:05:32,960 won't tease too much of it but I'll probably be writing a a 93 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:34,920 little bit about that this offseason. 94 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:37,600 I think that people haven't turned over the correct rocks 95 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:42,720 yet to figure out how to exactly classify players as better in 96 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:45,440 basketball versus better in redraft type players. 97 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:48,760 But a guy that I, I was discussing with some people in a 98 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:53,640 Discord chat today as Rashad White and the perception of the 99 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:56,800 people I was talking to was, oh, Rashad White is going to have a 100 00:05:56,800 --> 00:05:58,960 huge advance rate. This guy's crushing. 101 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:00,880 Got to have a massive advance rate, right? 102 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:04,720 And while his advance rate is good, it's not close to the 103 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:08,800 absolute league winners, you know, like Keenan Allen or Mike 104 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,160 Evans or, you know, guys like that. 105 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:15,280 Even even Devana Chan, who has missed a large number of weeks, 106 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:18,560 has a better advance rate than Rashad White going just a couple 107 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:21,520 rounds after him, even, you know, just a round in some 108 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:23,760 drafts. And so they're basically going 109 00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:27,280 in the same place of the draft. But A Chan has such a better 110 00:06:27,280 --> 00:06:30,800 advance rate, and it's because of the way that Rashad White 111 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:33,760 scored his points for you. You know Rashad White gave you 112 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:38,160 awesome consistency which in a redraft league like if you 113 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:41,520 drafted Rashad White at cost, you're so happy with him. 114 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:44,720 You you literally didn't have a decision to make after like Week 115 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:46,240 5. You're like that dude's in my 116 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:47,120 lineup. I don't. 117 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:52,200 I don't think about him, but in best of all he's good but but 118 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:57,760 not what people would think. So I am one one of the things 119 00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:01,560 that I I, I often wonder about or or question is like are are 120 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:06,600 we actually good at predicting that point distribution ahead of 121 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:13,440 time And my my my sort of talk has has has been not not always. 122 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:17,680 Especially I I mean with running backs I think it's a little bit 123 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:21,720 easier and like you you can probably expect that this the 124 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:24,920 guys with with that are going to have really high expected 125 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:28,280 points. But you're pretty confident 126 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:32,880 aren't like stars that that's probably a good profile for like 127 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:38,960 not a or a bad profile for those spike weeks and and and and and 128 00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:44,240 helpful distributions but. I I do often I do often wonder 129 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:48,960 like just because they had one season where big week little 130 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:52,800 week big week little week. Is that is that truly like a 131 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:56,920 predictor for? Yeah, awesome question. 132 00:07:56,920 --> 00:08:01,240 And I'll tell you, this is like true, disturbed, degenerate 133 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:03,240 behavior for why I've looked into this. 134 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:06,320 So I had a league. It was a work league that I was 135 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:09,640 in like, gosh, probably close to a decade ago at this point. 136 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:13,520 And they had some funky scoring settings, one of which was a big 137 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:15,640 play bonus. You get, you know, plus three 138 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:19,080 points if a player has a play that's over 40 yards. 139 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:22,800 And so I went back and did like some back testing to try and 140 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:25,440 figure out like is there anything that I can come up with 141 00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:29,880 that's more predictive for you know, what players are going to 142 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:34,720 give me these big splash plays, But I also need to be able to 143 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:37,039 attach it to their overall fantasy production. 144 00:08:37,039 --> 00:08:40,559 Like, it doesn't really help me if Rashid Shahid gives me a 145 00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:43,799 bunch of 40 point plays, but he's not startable except for in 146 00:08:43,799 --> 00:08:46,560 like 2 weeks, right? That's like a best ball type of 147 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:49,400 way. And so I did come up with a 148 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:54,480 metric purely for this stupid work league that I I think I'm 149 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:57,200 going to be flushing out a lot more this offseason and do 150 00:08:57,200 --> 00:08:59,680 taking a little bit more of a rigorous approach to it. 151 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:03,720 But I will tell you that I found a little bit of year over year 152 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:07,640 stickiness with the kind of crude approach that I took the 153 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:08,720 first time. So I'm. 154 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:11,880 I'm excited. In the play by play data, there 155 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:17,440 is players who could catch long in in your example and players 156 00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:22,120 who catch deep passes that that that that's that's predictive. 157 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:27,960 And and I mean hopefully helpful for Spike weeks and because I 158 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:33,560 still, I still wonder and maybe I'm, I'm sidetracking this too 159 00:09:33,560 --> 00:09:38,800 much here but I still wonder if like that is still a better and 160 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:44,200 best ball overall production because you can have it's like 161 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:48,440 you said you can have somebody who they they get a bunch of 40 162 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:52,040 point plays but. If those are spread out sort of 163 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:58,680 like evenly or or not not all clustered into one or two weeks 164 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:03,520 like that's still like a that's still a kind of a steady point 165 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:05,480 distribution. Yeah, I'll tell you what I was 166 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:09,320 looking for really was kind of a baseline of production with 167 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:13,480 having that indicator that I came up with on top of that. 168 00:10:13,560 --> 00:10:18,200 And so those guys that met those two criteria became players that 169 00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:22,240 in this first, you know, expedition to to find this 170 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:26,920 metric, those are guys that I moved up the rankings in in this 171 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:30,160 specific format, so. That that is interesting. 172 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:35,720 That is interesting and and with that probably a good idea to 173 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:41,440 kick into these into these charts and so first chart as 174 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:43,640 always QB passing and efficiency. 175 00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:49,160 Or see passing efficiency and rushing production and. 176 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:53,200 On the horizontal axis, we've got adjusted yards per attempt, 177 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:56,840 which is like normal yards per attempt, but rewards touchdowns 178 00:10:56,840 --> 00:11:00,760 and punishes interceptions. We've got touchdown rate on the 179 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:04,920 vertical axis. And then we have the size of the 180 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:08,120 bubble corresponds to rushing yards per game. 181 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:13,520 And I I feel like I, I, I sort of open this with this every 182 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:18,120 week and it's that this is at this point a pretty steady 183 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:21,960 chart. And even small movements are 184 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:28,200 sort of notable because we've got, I guess we've got 12 weeks 185 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:33,880 of data in here and sort of this should be what we know about 186 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:36,680 each player. I guess where can come in most 187 00:11:36,680 --> 00:11:41,440 handy is where, when, when we have or at this point in the 188 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:45,280 season when we have new players who we who've only played a 189 00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:47,800 couple of games such as Tommy de Vito. 190 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:51,320 Who? Who looks to be honestly 191 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:54,000 sticking out here as a sort of like negative regression 192 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:57,480 candidate. Yeah, I definitely, I think 193 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:02,160 Tommy Devito's a a pretty prime negative regression candidate. 194 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:06,560 Hasn't looked very good. Did manage to get those two 195 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:10,280 touchdown passes to Saquon a week ago, which I certainly 196 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:14,440 think is boosting his TD rate there above what's going to be 197 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:18,280 sustainable for him. He did have a couple nice 198 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:22,320 looking throws to Jalen Hyatt, you know, deeper down the field, 199 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:26,160 deeper A dot, you know, outside the numbers, so definitely 200 00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:31,680 harder throws to convert on. But I just think more more than 201 00:12:31,680 --> 00:12:34,600 anything, it's not something I'm like super excited about this 202 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:37,400 season, just 'cause I don't think there will be very many 203 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:39,960 opportunities for this to be relevant or something you can 204 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:42,640 take advantage of. Like it's going to be pretty 205 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:47,000 hard to want to roll out like Jalen Hyatt in DFS or something, 206 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:49,720 right? Or even in like a, you know, a 207 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:54,160 battle Royale type draft. I I guess maybe if we have one 208 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:57,040 more giant Showdown slate this year, which I haven't, haven't 209 00:12:57,040 --> 00:13:00,480 looked to see. But if we do, I guess I'll be 210 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:04,320 potentially overweight on Jalen Hyatt if he comes in reasonable. 211 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:07,400 But yeah, I mean nothing. Nothing super useful or 212 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:10,960 actionable there. They. 213 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:15,200 Yeah, they played a Packers on Monday night December 11th. 214 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:19,240 OK, well, bummer. I don't even know if I'm gonna 215 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:21,760 play that Showdown slate 'cause I'm flying. 216 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:24,000 I'm flying back from Miami from the dog bowl. 217 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:28,680 I know someone. I mean, shit I won't have my PCI 218 00:13:28,680 --> 00:13:33,040 can't run my my model. So you know, someone go ahead 219 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:36,840 and and jam some Jalen Hyatt for me on that slate or maybe I'll, 220 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:39,520 I'll move the flight to, you know, first thing Monday morning 221 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:44,920 to get back in time. You know I think they they're 222 00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:50,200 also playing on Christmas and so if if you wanna redeem yourself 223 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:54,360 and get back your Grinder credentials I might be might be 224 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:56,360 in an illegal state for Christmas. 225 00:13:57,080 --> 00:14:02,080 So unable to to play that one and you know what there's just 226 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:07,320 there's only so much showdown degeneracy I can even I can 227 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:10,520 handle and we're we're just gonna spend time with the family 228 00:14:10,520 --> 00:14:14,720 on Christmas. Pretty reasonable. 229 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:18,800 Pretty reasonable. Anybody else here who who sticks 230 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:20,920 that to you? Yeah, a couple couple guys. 231 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:24,840 Really quick. I had notes on So Dak has been 232 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:29,440 steadily moving up and to the right kind of in this echelon of 233 00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:33,680 elite quarterbacks and and really like the way that this 234 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:37,400 chart shakes out. This chart isn't like ordering 235 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:41,360 guys or clustering them with respect to oh this guy's elite 236 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:44,320 for fantasy. This is more like an efficiency 237 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:46,720 type chart and you can kind of put it all together with the 238 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:50,120 size of the dot for like OK and then and then this is but really 239 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:53,040 what we're missing for like how this would be the most 240 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:56,600 applicable for fantasy production is some measure of 241 00:14:56,600 --> 00:15:00,240 volume as well which we we talked about behind the scenes 242 00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:02,400 maybe making some adjustments to this chart eventually. 243 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:06,080 But at this point in the season we're we're pretty pretty much 244 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:10,040 you know past this this data being all that helpful. 245 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:11,320 We kind of know what these guys are. 246 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:14,640 But I didn't want to point out Dak has just been on fire enough 247 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:18,200 lately that he's moved into that echelon of those extremely 248 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:21,520 efficient passers like to Stroud Purdy. 249 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:27,320 The other note that I had just came from watching that Eagles 250 00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:31,600 game which you know of course crazy shootout went absolutely 251 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:34,960 nuclear in the second-half. But if you watch the first half, 252 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:39,520 I mean, I don't know if you know the second-half is going to 253 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:41,680 taint people's perception of this. 254 00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:44,920 But the first half, both of these offenses to me looked 255 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:49,440 like, not great. You know, like they they each 256 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:53,760 showed a lot of a lot of warts in the first half. 257 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:58,800 And so specifically with respect to, and I wanted to to make this 258 00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:03,120 note for playoff basketball #1. Like, I hope you're not drafting 259 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:06,160 Josh Allen or any bills for playoff basketball because their 260 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:08,560 price is egregious and they're only like 8% to make the 261 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:10,800 playoffs. So if you have been drafting 262 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:14,680 Josh Allen, I'm really sorry. Unless your name is Liam, then 263 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:16,280 you can draft as much bills as you want. 264 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:18,360 Yeah, you can. I mean, he's got money to burn, 265 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:19,000 man. Liam. 266 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:23,120 Liam's got like probably a dozen more years of blindly drafting 267 00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:27,200 bills to like get closer to expected value on his absolute 268 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:28,960 son. Run with them so he can. 269 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:32,920 Liam is allowed to draft more bills purely ever trying to get 270 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:36,880 closer to his expected value. But what I what I really wanted 271 00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:40,800 to say was with respect to Hertz, the Eagles have, and 272 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:44,320 rightfully so, a pretty high price in current playoff 273 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:45,360 basketball. ADP. 274 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:49,800 This is only a small part of this analysis has to do with the 275 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:52,240 Jalen Hurts knee injury, which I did. 276 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:55,960 I mentioned on a show a couple weeks back that I was, I was 277 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:58,320 lower on Hertz on a specific slate because I thought his 278 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:02,920 rushing projection was not appropriately factoring in the 279 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:05,440 knee injury. And on that week he definitely 280 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:09,560 rushed less and he's he's had less rushing going forward since 281 00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:14,119 he's suffered the knee injury. And I I don't know how serious 282 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:16,440 the knee injury is or if that carries over into the play offs. 283 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:18,720 So this analysis is kind of independent of that. 284 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:22,960 So you can kind of add that knee injury as a plus or minus there, 285 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:25,319 depending on how you think that shakes out for his health in the 286 00:17:25,319 --> 00:17:28,400 playoffs. But his passing volume, what 287 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:32,240 he's able to do through the air if we, if we remove the tush 288 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:37,640 push fantasy value, he's not that great, especially not for 289 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:40,680 the price that he's going at in playoff basketball. 290 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:44,160 Now of course the Eagles have really high odds to make the 291 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:48,240 Super Bowl the way that I think I'm most interested in playing 292 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:51,240 that though just, you know, being cost sensitive and being 293 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:55,040 aware of the fact that in games where the Eagles don't get tush 294 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:58,200 pushes for Hertz, his expected fantasy points are going to be 295 00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:00,920 drastically lower. Now of course they get lots of 296 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:03,400 tush pushes on the goal line, but I mean you saw it in the 297 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:07,320 first half of this game where the Bills weren't letting them 298 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:10,600 get into position to to take advantage of that on onto the 299 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:12,640 goal line and they were, they were stopping drives short of 300 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:14,920 that. And so I think I'd rather try 301 00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:19,240 and play the Eagles through secondary options and not have a 302 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:23,120 primary team stack, especially because they're they're likely 303 00:18:23,120 --> 00:18:25,800 to get the buy. And so I don't want to have to 304 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:29,200 draft a second quarterback along with Jalen Hurd. 305 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:33,960 So I'm less than enthused about, you know, relative to his cost. 306 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:37,520 I think I'd rather take Eagles weapons and have them be. 307 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:40,480 Hey, I still think the Eagles can make the Super Bowl, but I'm 308 00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:43,560 gonna play the quarterback through the other side of that 309 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:45,160 Super Bowl matchup if that makes sense. 310 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:47,080 I know that was a pretty long winded. 311 00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:53,280 Take so no no I I I I thought that was easy to follow and but 312 00:18:53,280 --> 00:19:01,200 the summarize not interested in hurts in playoff best ball and 313 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:05,040 that's because his his is throwing efficiency. 314 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:10,360 Has not been great. And then last couple of weeks 315 00:19:10,360 --> 00:19:15,640 been actually kind of poor. And if if that because of some 316 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:18,960 sort of injury, then maybe that's even worse. 317 00:19:19,360 --> 00:19:22,840 But sort of acknowledging that the Eagles are definitely a 318 00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:27,600 favorite to make the Super Bowl and fading the Eagles is is not 319 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:29,960 a. It's not a palatable strategy, 320 00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:34,320 even at an expensive cost, just because there's such big Super 321 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:38,920 Bowl favorites. But playing them through 322 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:43,320 secondary pieces so like Swift or like about the Smith or or 323 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:46,560 something like that as as something on the other side of 324 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:54,040 your primary stack and I think that that and I I don't have the 325 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:58,160 finger on the pulse of the the playoff best balls streets as 326 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:03,200 much as you but that feels like a pretty contrarian stance where 327 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:06,400 like. He was obviously he Hertz was 328 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,920 one of the highest drafted QBs. I expect him to still be one of 329 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:16,440 the highest drafted QBs, but just looking at his, at his 330 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,600 trying efficiency that that that's sort of what you're 331 00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:23,400 leaning on. Yeah and and here's you if you 332 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:25,320 want we'll we'll go all the way spicy. 333 00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:27,920 I'm gonna I'm gonna leak some playoff, playoff basketball 334 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,880 alpha here. Not not too much 'cause I do 335 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,560 believe that we're going to be having a A piece come out over 336 00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:36,120 at legendary upside with some more in depth strategy. 337 00:20:36,120 --> 00:20:40,960 But here here's here's probably going to be the way that I play 338 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:43,720 the Eagles in playoff basketball this season and of course. 339 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:46,760 The prices are going to change as the playoff picture 340 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,960 crystallizes right As we get more more through more games of 341 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:51,680 the season. We know what teams are going to 342 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,520 be in what seeds. The prices will change but I 343 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,080 only expect the Eagles to get more expensive. 344 00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:01,480 You know as it becomes pretty evident that you know they're 345 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:04,800 getting the buy that'll that'll drop them just a a hair but not 346 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:08,640 by much and and I I think that people are going to be excited 347 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:13,120 about them as a a Super Bowl favorite and so I'll be fading. 348 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:18,280 Hertz at cost, but on the teams that I do take Hertz. 349 00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:23,120 What I'm likely going to do and this, this is going to depend 350 00:21:23,120 --> 00:21:24,520 heavily on how the prices line up. 351 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,440 But what I'm likely going to do, you won't be able to get very 352 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,640 much Hertz plus A.J. Brown just the way the cost is 353 00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:32,840 going up. So you're going to have a right 354 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:34,560 next to each other. You're going to have a 355 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:37,920 disproportionate amount of teams that are Hertz, Devonta, Smith. 356 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,800 And what I actually think is going to be the best way to play 357 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:44,920 this with respect to the field. When I flip all the cards over 358 00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,720 in the finals, if the Eagles are in the Super Bowl, what I 359 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:51,480 actually want is I want Hertz as my lone Eagle. 360 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,080 I want a solo Hertz. Maybe Hertz. 361 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:59,720 Plus, you know, Swift and only rocking 2 Eagles to number one 362 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:03,880 help my advance rate through their bye week and #2 lean into 363 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,520 the tush push. Hey, if the Eagles are getting 364 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:09,320 to the Super Bowl. If they are scoring fantasy 365 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,720 points, it's at the detriment of all their other weapons because 366 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,800 Jalen Hurts is stealing all those touchdowns. 367 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:18,640 He accounts for such a high percentage of the team's 368 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:22,040 touchdowns, and I think between Hertz and Swift, you can damn 369 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:24,560 near account for 100% of the team's touchdowns. 370 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:27,160 You know you're going to miss the odd one to freaking Kenny 371 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:30,120 Gainwell or Boston Scott or whatever, but you got those two 372 00:22:30,120 --> 00:22:31,520 players. You have all the Eagles 373 00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:35,240 touchdowns wrapped up. You miss the extremely chalky 374 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,120 stacks of, you know, with Devonta Smith, with Goddard, and 375 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,280 then you show up to the Super Bowl and you don't have one of 376 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:44,880 your five active roster spots filled with one of those players 377 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:48,920 who could have a pretty decent chance to fail relative to the 378 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:50,840 other skill position players in that game. 379 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,320 I just, I like the leverage that it can give you. 380 00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:57,800 So I'm either hurts with swift or I'm, I'm fading hurts and 381 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:00,560 going with Eagles secondary weapons. 382 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:07,720 But yeah and and what's sort of interesting about that is you 383 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,720 sort of noted A.J. Brown will be a hard, would be a 384 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:16,280 hard combination to to hard combination to get with Hertz. 385 00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:20,160 And so even if like Hertz falls back to six and and A.J. 386 00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:24,360 Brown is still there are are are you just not, is that a double 387 00:23:24,360 --> 00:23:28,880 top that you're you're doing or you're even pushing that into a 388 00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:30,720 fade? No, no, I would. 389 00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:33,800 So I'm going to be pretty market sensitive. 390 00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:36,600 So it really depends on what I've seen in the market over the 391 00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:40,120 course of the contest and and since these contests can fill 392 00:23:40,120 --> 00:23:43,360 and become, you know like a time box type contest. 393 00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:47,600 When I play a playoff festival contest, I I will pretty much 394 00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,520 only play if I will Max it because I want the maximum 395 00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:54,520 amount of data that I can have on what the field is doing and 396 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:58,200 I'm tracking all of that. And so I I want to know. 397 00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:01,040 How many other people could really get Hurts A.J. 398 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,440 Brown? If it's relatively rare, then 399 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:06,160 I'm certainly happy to double tap that right and and I'm 400 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:10,200 letting the market then dictate the exposure that I get to Jalen 401 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:13,880 Hurts if that makes sense. Yeah, makes perfect sense. 402 00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:21,600 And so I I I guess it but give it contingent on it being rare 403 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:25,600 you're happy to double top it and yeah on on the flip side 404 00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:29,280 with the Levanta Smith being pretty common I'm just looking 405 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:34,040 at the week to week points and it sort of is because hurt even 406 00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:37,280 though the offense is great because Hertz gets so many of 407 00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:40,480 the touchdowns like a lot of these guys like they have the 408 00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:45,840 big spike weeks but then they have really low sort of like 409 00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:50,040 down weeks as well and it it only takes it only takes one or 410 00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:54,160 two of those in in in playoff basketball with the the small 411 00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,960 player pool to to to really wipe you out. 412 00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:00,920 Yeah. So that's that's kind of why I 413 00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:03,680 feel the way that I do about how I think the best way to play the 414 00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:06,200 Eagles is going to be this season again contingent on 415 00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:09,880 prices. And then the last playoff 416 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:14,640 basketball take I I had here was Lamar is way underpriced right 417 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,360 now. We we need to be. 418 00:25:16,360 --> 00:25:19,760 I mean, I've, I know I've been beating the Lamar drum like all 419 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:23,560 season, but I I'm still doing the Lamar thing like. 420 00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:28,360 This guy we just saw Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts like go for 35 421 00:25:28,360 --> 00:25:33,400 and 40. Like Lamar has that squarely in 422 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,400 his range. Like I I would even say that 423 00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:40,320 Lamar is more likely to have those games than Josh Allen with 424 00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:45,320 just just with like I I I don't even think Josh Allen's rushing 425 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,600 upside this season is close to what Lamar's is just with how 426 00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,280 much they've limited his volume. And like, yes, that's picked up 427 00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:55,200 a little bit lately, but like. Dude, Lamar, rushing for 100 428 00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:58,080 yards is is not even like that far outside. 429 00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:00,920 You know what you could expect. And and really you're just 430 00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,840 looking at like the Ravens don't get pushed very often. 431 00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:07,480 And so I think that's another thing that you need to think 432 00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:11,040 about with respect to playoff basketball is a lot of these 433 00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:14,360 teams are going to be in situations that have not. 434 00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:18,160 Been situations we've seen very much of over the course of the 435 00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:19,680 season. You know the Eagles are going to 436 00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:22,880 play good teams. You know the the Ravens are 437 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,600 going to play good teams and all of a sudden they're going to 438 00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:29,840 have situations where they can't just rest on their laurels and 439 00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:33,800 run Gus Edwards down the other team's throat like 20 times and 440 00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,240 you know, coast to a victory. They're going to have to keep 441 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,240 putting points up. So definitely worth keeping in 442 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,840 mind that some of these teams are going to be. 443 00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:45,880 In game scripts that are a lot different than the majority of 444 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:47,040 game scripts we've seen for that. 445 00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:49,680 And there's no way there's no chance Ravens can win the buy 446 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,360 right or or like, very little chance. 447 00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:56,760 Let me let me look at that. I actually think that there is a 448 00:26:56,760 --> 00:27:00,960 a chance still OK, 'cause I'm I'm sort of looking at it and I 449 00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:04,680 I'm, I don't have, I haven't looked at it in a sophisticated 450 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,960 way as you. But just looking at Fox Sports 451 00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:11,200 stuff, the Eagles have an 18% chance of winning the Super 452 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:12,840 Bowl. Yeah. 453 00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:19,760 And or and then the Ravens have an 11% chance of winning the 454 00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:24,640 Super Bowl which I I guess they they are different, but they're 455 00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:27,560 not that different. It's not like the Eagles are are 456 00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:32,240 dislike way ahead favorite to win, and the Ravens are just 457 00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:40,360 like like gone by the wayside. Yeah the the Ravens have a 18% 458 00:27:40,360 --> 00:27:44,920 chance of getting the one seed still it's Chiefs about 40%, 459 00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:50,480 Jacksonville 20%, Baltimore 18%, Miami 16%. 460 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:54,320 So it's AII would say you know it's a four horse race still in 461 00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:58,120 in the AFC you're you're really certainly not the favorites no. 462 00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:00,240 No, no. You're looking for Kansas City 463 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,520 to drop a game and then it gets really interesting basically and 464 00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:07,520 and so but I, I, I the way I was gonna put it is that the fact 465 00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:14,040 that the Ravens are more likely than not to not get to buy and 466 00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:18,200 and they still have a high Super Bowl probability. 467 00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:20,400 Well, then they could. They could also be like a 468 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:24,040 four-game, like, sort of powerhouse. 469 00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:28,920 Yeah, the thing I love about the Ravens too is, and this is in 470 00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:32,720 current ADP in the market, so it'll change, but. 471 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:38,280 Currently you can get just some absolute juggernaut picks, Like, 472 00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:43,960 you know, get a a really strong NFC side of your build going and 473 00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,080 then just boom, tack Lamar onto it. 474 00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:50,240 And all of a sudden you're like, OK, I got not only teams that 475 00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:53,560 have really high probability of making it to the Super Bowl, but 476 00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:55,600 I've also got like all the best players. 477 00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:58,000 And typically in playoff basketball, what you're doing is 478 00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:02,680 I get a couple good players. And I get, you know, some teams 479 00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:05,760 with high probability of the Super Bowl, but then I get a 480 00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:10,160 bunch of kind of more more scrub thin players that I'm building 481 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:12,520 out so that I have a more robust Super Bowl bet. 482 00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:17,480 In the event that that those teams hit, you know, they're of 483 00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,120 course people that aren't as Privy to this strategy are are 484 00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:23,680 going to build teams that are more robust with their raw 485 00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:26,160 projected points in the early weeks. 486 00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:29,560 But those teams? Pretty much are are just dead to 487 00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:31,120 rights. If they do make the finals, 488 00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:33,800 'cause they can't field five players or you know, by the 489 00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,120 conference championship, they're all but wiped out 'cause they 490 00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:38,040 took too many teams that are gonna face each other. 491 00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:45,880 So yeah, makes that makes sense. And any anybody else that that 492 00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:48,440 you wanted to touch on before we we move on? 493 00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:52,200 Yeah, last guy and then we can get get moving to next charts. 494 00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:54,840 But CJ Stroud just continues to be. 495 00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:57,880 Incredible. And the Texans are are starting 496 00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:02,440 to become more and more willing to pass, which we also can. 497 00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:05,680 We can tease that into your favorite player that we're gonna 498 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:07,960 discuss, I believe on the next chart. 499 00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:12,480 But I I think CJ Stroud don't don't tell me what a good time. 500 00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:16,840 CJ Stroud is is primed for like positive touchdown regression 501 00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:18,560 here it looks like. I mean, if you look at him and 502 00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:22,920 Tua, Stroud's looking a little low on his TD rate. 503 00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:27,160 You know, with respect to guys like Tua and Brock Purdy, you 504 00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:32,080 know in in Dak Prescott, guys in the similar adjusted yards per 505 00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:35,920 attempt range. So I would not be surprised at 506 00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:40,600 all if CJ Stroud's best game of the season is yet to come. 507 00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:51,640 Yeah well here's here's hoping and I will take that cue and let 508 00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:57,480 me and obviously I feel like I say this every week so I'm just 509 00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:59,720 going to get out of the way every week is now Devon 510 00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:05,520 Singletary week. He's like somehow inexplicitly A 511 00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:08,240 stood running back. He was like a workhorse. 512 00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:11,400 I don't I don't know how he does this every year. 513 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:15,280 Every year he does this, and I need to whenever whatever 514 00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:18,600 anybody says about Devon Singletary in next offseason, I 515 00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:21,920 just need to block it out. And just like, remember, it's 516 00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:24,720 been like the last three years in a row. 517 00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:33,760 He's gone from like and and and not highly drafted to like, 518 00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:36,640 somehow like the workhorse for his team by the end of the year. 519 00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:41,880 Yeah, his role. Yeah, his role looks great. 520 00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:46,240 If you drafted Devon Singletary and Bestball, you're extremely 521 00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,600 pleased with how it's it's shaking out. 522 00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:51,880 And The thing is, I don't. Like this. 523 00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:53,640 Sure. When Damien Pierce is fully 524 00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:57,400 healthy change a little bit. I don't think it's it's not 525 00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:01,720 going back to you know Devin Singletary is you know just the 526 00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:05,480 passing down specialist or he comes into pass block like I'm 527 00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,720 pretty sure it's Devin Singletary alpha with Damien 528 00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:11,680 Pierce change of pace like the bruiser between the tackles 529 00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:16,160 back. So yeah, I mean, I it's nuts. 530 00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:18,920 Yeah, I've gotta gotta capitulate to your Devon 531 00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:22,680 Singletary Love 'cause you you've been beating the Jerome. 532 00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:23,720 You were. You were. 533 00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:27,480 I mean, when we were drafting best ball teams this summer, I I 534 00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,120 couldn't even tell you how many times I had to be like, I don't 535 00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:32,760 know about us taking that Singletary here, man. 536 00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:38,320 But, well, hopefully, hopefully. I I I'm looking at my my 537 00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:41,320 currently advancing basketball teams and I'm hoping to get just 538 00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:44,600 one Devon Singletary team for For the Memories. 539 00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:52,320 Other moving moving on to other running backs, Rashad White 540 00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:55,400 continues to have his just absolutely elite role. 541 00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:58,520 You know, we mentioned him a little bit earlier with respect 542 00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:02,000 to like he's kind of the steady Eddy churning out those those 543 00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:06,200 usable weeks, not as much a spike week type of player, but 544 00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:10,240 you know, super, super high on the usable weeks for him. 545 00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:14,520 Josh Jacobs. Was looking like he might get 546 00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:17,800 there on just the raw volume. Had a ton of volume in the first 547 00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:22,360 half, then breaks that big breakaway touchdown run and then 548 00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:26,680 just like ghosted for scoring any fantasy points after that. 549 00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,920 It was like he he just got tired of scoring fantasy points. 550 00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:34,920 But yeah, these these guys up in this upper echelon of the rolls. 551 00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:38,960 You know, you kind of know what you've got in them. 552 00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:41,720 You got those guys that are just like, hey, great projectable 553 00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:45,560 volume players like Devin Singletary, Rashad White, Josh 554 00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:49,200 Jacobs, Saquan Barkley. I I think I'm ready. 555 00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:51,840 I mean, we've talked about the decline of Austin Eckler's 556 00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:55,200 efficiency. I'm ready to put Eckler in that 557 00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:57,880 category. He's still, he's still less of a 558 00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:00,000 volume play because he doesn't really get there on rushing 559 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:02,000 volume. It's more the receiving volume 560 00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:04,480 and then of course like the high. 561 00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:07,720 Probability of Green Zone touches in the event the 562 00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,480 Chargers actually have a game where their offense is 563 00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:13,760 functional. As a brief aside to that, 564 00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:17,040 because I think it is relevant with respect to Austin Eckler, I 565 00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:23,639 don't know if you watched that entire Chargers island game, but 566 00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:30,719 man, they they couldn't move the ball whatsoever on offense 567 00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:32,880 unless it was Keenan Allen, It was like. 568 00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:35,199 Was the play designed to Keenan Allen? 569 00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:40,040 If yes, first down. If not, we are well on our way 570 00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:43,000 to a three and out unless we decide that Keenan Allen gets 571 00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:44,719 the ball before we go three and out. 572 00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:48,400 And it was so painful to watch. Like I I was watching. 573 00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:50,880 It was brutal. Yeah, I was watching with my 574 00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:53,440 wife, who had Keenan on her fantasy team, needed him to do 575 00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:56,560 something. You know, and I told her well, I 576 00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:59,160 have good news for you. And the only way that the 577 00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:02,880 Chargers win this game is Keenan catches 20 balls like he he 578 00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,040 needs. He literally needs to catch 20 579 00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:07,320 balls for them to win this game because otherwise they're not 580 00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:10,440 going to move the ball enough and he did not catch 20 balls 581 00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:14,000 and they didn't win the game. But yeah, it's it was so 582 00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:17,960 frustrating because just as a a viewer you could tell like. 583 00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:22,120 Look, it might sound stupid on the sideline to be like every 584 00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:25,000 play needs to be to Keenan. Like, I I get that he's going to 585 00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:28,960 get tired and like maybe we take every other playoff and do 586 00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:32,360 something different. But like any play that wasn't to 587 00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:34,880 Keenan just looked like such a wasted play. 588 00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:38,680 And then you got the random like Justin Herbert long scramble, 589 00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:39,600 you know? But. 590 00:35:40,240 --> 00:35:41,400 Well, like that was basically it. 591 00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,840 It's like, did we get a random lucky, explosive play to happen 592 00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,560 because something broke down or did we throw to Keenan? 593 00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:50,360 And if neither of those things are true, then we're punting. 594 00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:56,800 So yeah, I'm, I think Eckler is squarely in that category of not 595 00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:59,880 elite guys anymore. More so, just a play on volume, 596 00:35:59,880 --> 00:36:04,480 which is kind of a bummer. Yeah, I think. 597 00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:08,440 I think that's right. And I'm I'm sort of I'm I just 598 00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:13,640 started looking at his advanced stats here and on the season his 599 00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:17,440 like next Gen. stats stuff like he has rushing yarns over 600 00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,880 expected. But then when I look at the sort 601 00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:24,520 of stat chasing database and and and the expected point stuff. 602 00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:28,120 So his expected, his fantasy point over expected from 603 00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:32,440 yardage. He had basically 69 yards more 604 00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:36,040 than expected in nice one, which is pretty nice. 605 00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:41,880 But then once he came back in week six through week 12 and 606 00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:47,920 those weeks he's sung to 15 yards under expected. 607 00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:52,760 So I mean maybe that that's that's too much trend reading 608 00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:57,240 from from small sample size. But to me it truly feels like 609 00:36:57,240 --> 00:36:59,240 this. This is an older back who had a 610 00:36:59,240 --> 00:37:03,760 high ankle sprain and has not been able to properly recover. 611 00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:07,160 Yeah. And it like we saw that we saw 612 00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:10,960 this this the pacing where he was he was running like I think 613 00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:13,640 it was like 18 miles an hour or something like that like well 614 00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:18,520 below his like his his what I'd say his his highest pace was 615 00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:23,280 last year and so I I I don't know if I'm leaving in in the 616 00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:29,480 dirt for next year but soft tissue injury older running back 617 00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:34,960 slow unproductive not not great combinations do you really need 618 00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:39,000 the recovery to go well in the offseason for next year to work. 619 00:37:39,240 --> 00:37:42,160 Yeah, I think next year's going to be a pretty price sensitive. 620 00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:45,040 I mean I was already pretty heavily underweight on him this 621 00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:50,320 season just with age concerns. And so if we can get him, if he 622 00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:54,680 goes in like the Aaron Jones range, which I don't think is so 623 00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:58,360 ludicrous given the, you know, the arc of his career, if he 624 00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:01,480 goes in that like 4-5 turn range where Aaron Jones is going. 625 00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:03,680 And that's where I'd have a little bit of interest there 626 00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:06,760 just in like that he still has a little juice left and that the 627 00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:10,840 high ankle sprain sapped way more than you know, we we gave 628 00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:13,800 it credit for and that he actually, you know those first 629 00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:15,920 couple weeks were more indicative of what he's still 630 00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:20,240 got in the tank. But anyway, I did want to ask 631 00:38:20,240 --> 00:38:24,520 you about another guy who, you know, purely a volume play, not 632 00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:27,320 really an explosiveness or talent play at this point, 633 00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:30,840 unfortunately, but from Andre Stevenson with how? 634 00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:36,920 Absolute just dog water trash the Patriots offense looks they 635 00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:40,240 Bill Belichick looks like it physically pains him to call a 636 00:38:40,240 --> 00:38:44,800 pass play for either quarterback now like you know Mack Jones or 637 00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:50,440 Bailey's appy like Bill is is in great pain to see either of 638 00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:55,280 those guys throw the ball. So I I think that we might just 639 00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:59,320 get such a heaping helping of Remandre Stevenson because. 640 00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:04,200 They're like it's, you know, we're at great risk of Bill 641 00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:07,960 stroking out on us if we throw the ball more than 20 times with 642 00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:09,960 either of our quarterbacks, and we can't do that. 643 00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:14,320 So to protect his brain from hemorrhaging, we need Romandre 644 00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:17,680 Stevenson to get more touches and by extension, I think Zeke 645 00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:19,280 Elliott will also get more touches. 646 00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:23,600 Do you think that as we go into this, you know, last third of 647 00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:29,240 the year Romandre might kind of? Get to closer to like that 648 00:39:29,240 --> 00:39:33,080 Rashad White level of he's just super consistent. 649 00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:35,400 Not really gonna deliver much of the way of spike weeks but it's 650 00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:39,440 just such a huge he he's getting the Thanksgiving. 651 00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:42,240 You know first seconds and thirds all heaped on his plate 652 00:39:42,240 --> 00:39:43,880 is what I'm looking at going forward. 653 00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:49,320 So you're telling me a the offense sucks and so he's been 654 00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:53,240 inefficient and now to compensate for the offense being 655 00:39:53,240 --> 00:39:56,160 bad, they're gonna pass even less. 656 00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:03,280 So I mean, to me that's just like like just a perfect recipe 657 00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:09,880 for like the offense to be completely unusable for fantasy. 658 00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:17,920 And because I mean if I if I had some belief that this run game 659 00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:21,840 could be functional enough that if they just hand the ball off, 660 00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:25,240 I don't know like 40 * a game that they that they somehow end 661 00:40:25,240 --> 00:40:30,880 up with. 200 yards or or or like somewhere between 150 and 200 662 00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:35,040 yards and and someone gets a score like I I I guess that 663 00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:41,520 would make sense but right it it it's a struggle for me that like 664 00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:47,960 if if if the offense is going to sort of turtle off like that and 665 00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:53,200 it's a struggle for me to see any real production coming and 666 00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:56,640 then like oh and by the way you have to split it with Ezekiel 667 00:40:56,640 --> 00:41:03,720 Elliott. And I'm I, I, I I'm still not 668 00:41:03,720 --> 00:41:06,160 feeling great about Romandre, I have to say. 669 00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:10,560 I think that's probably the correct call, right. 670 00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:15,760 I I just was a little optimistic after seeing the good box score 671 00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:18,960 this week and. I think that trend is going to 672 00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:21,000 hold. I think it's going to be like 673 00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:25,080 how few times are we allowed to pass in an NFL game going 674 00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:28,280 forward for the Patriots? But I think you're right that, I 675 00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:31,240 mean, this already was an offense that was one of the have 676 00:41:31,240 --> 00:41:36,320 nots as we described him, you know, courtesy of of Ben Gretch 677 00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:38,960 for giving us that little moniker for offenses. 678 00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:43,000 But yeah, they're just even more of a of a have not going 679 00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:45,920 forward. I've got another running back 680 00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:49,840 here that's kind of in that category though of might just 681 00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:54,400 get such a crazy workload going forward that he's he's certainly 682 00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:58,360 interesting and that's Zach Charbonnet who we can see he's 683 00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:00,520 creeping up the chart now and you know with the injury to 684 00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:05,800 Kenneth Walker and I haven't seen anything more about the 685 00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:09,520 Kenneth Walker health status on when we can expect him back. 686 00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:13,160 Do you have? Any insight as to you know how 687 00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:15,880 long we might be getting the Zach Charbonne stand alone 688 00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:24,120 experience And honestly I do not and my only guess would my only 689 00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:28,280 thought on it would be that what's his name and Pete Carroll 690 00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:33,560 is so like unreliable when it comes to injury stuff that it's 691 00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:37,560 like it's it's truly like a it's a true it feels like a true 692 00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:40,800 mystery box. As to when Kenneth Walker comes 693 00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:46,280 back, I I think I I sort of downplayed the injury last week 694 00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:49,520 and I think I was sort of wrong. I was definitely wrong to do 695 00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:57,560 that and given given what I just said about P Carroll, it it it's 696 00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:02,960 it's I guess you're you're just starting Chardonnay until until 697 00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:08,120 you are told otherwise. Now I will have you know that 698 00:43:08,120 --> 00:43:12,720 the Coach Speak Index does have Pete Carroll just barely into 699 00:43:12,720 --> 00:43:18,000 the trustworthy category on his comments regarding injuries. 700 00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:21,840 So if we do get a little bit of an update regarding Kenneth 701 00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:26,800 Walker's injury timeline, I'd be more likely to believe that. 702 00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:30,640 Shout out to. Pete, for getting a Coach Speak 703 00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:34,400 Index creator on the DFS After Dark podcast. 704 00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:38,400 That was an awesome listen and I know he made that free on his 705 00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:40,880 YouTube channel, so I thought that was a great one. 706 00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:43,600 Check that out. But going back to Kenneth 707 00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:48,960 Walker, excuse me, going back to Zach Charbonnet, what I was 708 00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:53,160 looking at is even if he is getting the bell cow workload, 709 00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:56,440 which he looks competent, like he looks like he can do it in 710 00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:58,680 all phases, right? He can run between the tackles. 711 00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:01,760 He's got a little bit of burst. He's effective in the passing 712 00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:04,480 game. So the kind of guy where when he 713 00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:08,440 gets this opportunity for all this work should be really 714 00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:12,800 exciting except he's doing it in these these are the next games 715 00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:15,560 for him. He plays the Cowboys on Thursday 716 00:44:15,560 --> 00:44:19,480 night not not great, although the Cowboys run defense is the 717 00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:21,800 weakest part of their defense. So I actually think. 718 00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:25,400 For all you showdown degenerates out there, I'll probably come in 719 00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:28,880 a little overweight on the Kenneth or on my Zach Charbonnet 720 00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:33,000 come Thursday. But then he goes right back to 721 00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:35,680 the 49ers. They just put an absolute ass 722 00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:39,320 whooping on the Seahawks. Then you get the Eagles after 723 00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:42,280 that. And then finally on Christmas 724 00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:46,360 Eve you get the Titans, which is like, OK, finally a a match up. 725 00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:48,520 Where And And who knows, You know, maybe Kenneth Walker's 726 00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:51,880 back by then. But it's just a lot of bad 727 00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:54,040 matchups. But maybe you sneak a good one 728 00:44:54,040 --> 00:44:57,400 out from the Cowboys here. I don't know. 729 00:44:57,400 --> 00:44:59,800 What what do you think? Let's just say hypothetically 730 00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:02,680 that Kenneth Walker is out indefinitely and all these are 731 00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:04,640 just going to be Zach Charbonnet games. 732 00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:06,760 Are you excited for him going forward? 733 00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:09,120 What's what's the progress? I've never been like sort of 734 00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:12,880 like a big Chardonnay cheerleader. 735 00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:19,000 I remember he was I felt like he was only like so, so in college 736 00:45:19,080 --> 00:45:23,640 like he wasn't awful but he wasn't like really really good 737 00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:30,480 either and and I've definitely, I've definitely seen some like 738 00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:32,440 positive like comments and stuff like that. 739 00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:38,120 I know there's people who do really like them and but I don't 740 00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:42,280 know, it's like he hasn't, has he played well it it doesn't 741 00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:45,400 seem like it. I think it's hard to say, 'cause 742 00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:50,320 he hasn't really gotten, you know, great opportunity with, 743 00:45:50,520 --> 00:45:52,280 you know, getting the full workload. 744 00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:56,960 I mean, what we we can't really hold him getting just stymied by 745 00:45:56,960 --> 00:46:01,080 the 49ers against him, can we? Like, seems like such a tough 746 00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:03,720 match up. But I I guess what I'd seen from 747 00:46:03,720 --> 00:46:06,720 Charbonnet and what it it looks like with what you know, his 748 00:46:06,720 --> 00:46:10,560 play is, he's more of a a Jack of all trades, master of none. 749 00:46:12,040 --> 00:46:15,720 So really that makes sense where he's getting, he's getting the 750 00:46:15,720 --> 00:46:18,920 run and he's getting the he's getting targets. 751 00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:21,680 As well. And where those guys really cook 752 00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:24,120 is when their offense is super efficient, right? 753 00:46:24,120 --> 00:46:27,160 And they're just like this offense runs a shit load of 754 00:46:27,160 --> 00:46:29,160 plays. So Charbonnet's gonna be good. 755 00:46:29,240 --> 00:46:31,200 You know? There, there's just enough. 756 00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:36,280 Happening on the offense that by virtue of raw play volume and 757 00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:39,920 him getting so many snaps and then being you know in scoring 758 00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:43,240 position he will, he literally can't not be good, right? 759 00:46:43,520 --> 00:46:45,240 The problem is the offense is bad. 760 00:46:45,400 --> 00:46:49,400 So can we can we hold him being stymied by the Rams against him? 761 00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:52,720 That's that's a fairpoint. Yeah. 762 00:46:52,720 --> 00:46:56,440 I think it more so just comes back to the Seahawks offense is 763 00:46:56,440 --> 00:47:01,000 bad and so. That might be right. 764 00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:03,560 That's your problem. Mark against Charbone. 765 00:47:03,640 --> 00:47:10,480 So yeah, that makes sense. I think I think we're ready to 766 00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:13,760 move on to the next chart cause the other running backs I wanted 767 00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:18,080 to talk about I think are are best done on the efficiency 768 00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:20,920 charts and let's let's move on through the. 769 00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:23,280 Yeah, we can skip skip the backups here. 770 00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:29,600 And so that this is the running back expected points chart and 771 00:47:29,600 --> 00:47:34,000 you have a rushing if expected points sort of along this 772 00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:37,560 horizontal axis and then receiving expected points along 773 00:47:37,560 --> 00:47:40,800 the vertical axis and the size of the bubble corresponds to 774 00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:46,680 fantasy points over expected. I needed a cough, but I was 775 00:47:46,720 --> 00:47:48,720 getting through my explanation before I did. 776 00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:53,400 You you powered through like a true professional and so of 777 00:47:53,400 --> 00:47:58,640 course Devon Singletary atop the Trone in the 15 to 20 expected 778 00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:03,840 points as you have Kyron Williams now I I guess it's 779 00:48:03,840 --> 00:48:07,200 worth bearing in mind that we're only looking at the last four 780 00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:09,440 weeks, so this is like a four week average. 781 00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:13,800 Kyron Williams only has one week in the last four, so this is 782 00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:17,880 just the last game where he had like a monster monster workload 783 00:48:17,880 --> 00:48:22,240 and obviously he like he smashed it it as a as a football player 784 00:48:22,240 --> 00:48:26,240 on on that workload too. So love that for him and you can 785 00:48:26,240 --> 00:48:31,440 see that in the bubble. Anybody, anybody that you wanted 786 00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:34,800 to talk about here? Yeah, I mean, just to echo the 787 00:48:34,800 --> 00:48:38,240 Kyron Williams stuff, I know it's only one game, but it's not 788 00:48:38,240 --> 00:48:41,160 that like, this is different than what he was doing earlier 789 00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:44,760 in the season, right? He always lived in this above 20 790 00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:48,440 expected fantasy points realm with an extremely high amount of 791 00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:52,680 his expected fantasy points. Coming in the receiving game and 792 00:48:52,680 --> 00:48:59,200 with Cooper cups injury and you know Puka's banged up like I see 793 00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:03,080 this offense running through Kyron Williams and so just like 794 00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:07,000 we discussed with Charbonnet is gonna he's gonna go the way the 795 00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:09,840 offense goes. Kyron Williams is the same way 796 00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:16,040 except the Rams offense can be functional and and you know I I 797 00:49:16,040 --> 00:49:18,400 just, I think Kyron Williams is like. 798 00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:23,400 For the rest of the season, there's only two backs that I 799 00:49:23,400 --> 00:49:28,080 think could finish the season in the legendary category. 800 00:49:28,080 --> 00:49:31,320 You know, meeting, meeting Pat's criteria of a legendary running 801 00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:34,160 back, 23 full PPR fantasy points per game. 802 00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:37,400 One of them is Christian McCaffrey and the other one is 803 00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:42,480 Kyron Williams. Like I if you made me draft for 804 00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:45,720 the rest of the season right now, today. 805 00:49:47,720 --> 00:49:49,920 Probably. Take Kyron Williams in the top 806 00:49:50,320 --> 00:49:52,160 five. Like, is that crazy? 807 00:49:52,480 --> 00:50:02,120 It's like CMC Tyreekill CD Lamb. I think that. 808 00:50:02,120 --> 00:50:04,560 I think that's pretty fair. I think that's. 809 00:50:04,800 --> 00:50:08,080 It sounds it sounds super weird so that's why I'm like second 810 00:50:08,160 --> 00:50:15,960 guessing myself but and so it's after it's it was after week one 811 00:50:15,960 --> 00:50:19,840 that that what's his name and who who's the guy who they got 812 00:50:19,840 --> 00:50:21,880 rid of the running back to get rid of Cam Akers. 813 00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:24,360 Cam Akers. That was after week one they got 814 00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:29,920 rid of him and then week 225 expected points, we tree 21 1/2 815 00:50:29,920 --> 00:50:35,000 Expected points. Week 421.2 expected Points then 816 00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:41,720 not so much. Week 5 and week six was the one 817 00:50:41,720 --> 00:50:48,400 where you got the injury and then we 1224.9 so like like 818 00:50:48,400 --> 00:50:53,360 you're saying firmly in in in the sort of 20 expected points 819 00:50:53,360 --> 00:50:59,200 per game realm and he he he's important in the passing game 820 00:50:59,200 --> 00:51:03,800 and he's getting carries. So in terms of the workload I I 821 00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:09,240 I think that's more than true and then he's actually you know 822 00:51:09,240 --> 00:51:13,200 he's he's played fairly well. So I don't I don't think you're 823 00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:16,680 going to get like crazy. I know we did get we got crazy 824 00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:20,800 efficiency I don't know if we should expect that if we should 825 00:51:20,800 --> 00:51:23,720 expect great efficiency going forward but I think we should 826 00:51:23,720 --> 00:51:28,200 expect like reasonable efficiency and with the in the 827 00:51:28,200 --> 00:51:33,560 context of running backs being a mess this year I I I think 828 00:51:33,560 --> 00:51:35,960 that's fair. I honestly, I think that's fair. 829 00:51:36,800 --> 00:51:42,840 Maybe it is. It's like may I I I wanna say 830 00:51:42,840 --> 00:51:45,880 it's a touch on aggressive side but then it's like oh who who do 831 00:51:45,880 --> 00:51:49,120 you put in there over him? Like is Jamar Chase in there 832 00:51:49,120 --> 00:51:50,680 over him? I don't think so. 833 00:51:51,160 --> 00:51:54,760 So I I I have a hard time arguing against it. 834 00:51:55,520 --> 00:51:57,040 Just the way I frame it. It just. 835 00:51:57,040 --> 00:52:00,360 Feels weird, but you know what? That's I I think that you need 836 00:52:00,360 --> 00:52:05,120 to remain very flexible in fantasy football and be willing 837 00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:09,360 to adjust to new data and like. This it's not like this is the 838 00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:11,000 first week we've seen this from Kyron. 839 00:52:11,000 --> 00:52:13,880 You know he's he's done this like damn near every other week 840 00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:18,160 that he's had the workload. So it's like hey enough's 841 00:52:18,160 --> 00:52:19,960 enough. I like, I I know what this guy 842 00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:21,280 is. I know what they want to do with 843 00:52:21,280 --> 00:52:24,040 him. And so if he continues to be 844 00:52:24,040 --> 00:52:27,360 underpriced in in DFS, which I'm sure he's going to shoot up. 845 00:52:27,360 --> 00:52:29,560 I I haven't looked the slate for this next week. 846 00:52:29,560 --> 00:52:33,880 But I mean, while he remains underpriced, you just play him 847 00:52:33,880 --> 00:52:36,320 every week. It's like, it's kind of like. 848 00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:40,720 You know, back with Legarrette Blunt was on his crazy touchdown 849 00:52:40,720 --> 00:52:44,640 run and was forever mispriced. Like that entire season for DFS, 850 00:52:44,640 --> 00:52:47,080 it was like, I guess I played Legarrette Blunt again. 851 00:52:47,160 --> 00:52:51,920 OK, so Kyron is 7200 this week. That's so, Yeah, so underpriced 852 00:52:51,920 --> 00:52:54,080 for sure, right. So you just play it you you 853 00:52:54,080 --> 00:52:56,760 like. Like CMC is 9000 for. 854 00:52:56,760 --> 00:52:59,880 For context, Yep, actually there is 8300. 855 00:53:01,120 --> 00:53:06,720 Yeah, if I if I played classic DFS, which I am more of just a 856 00:53:06,720 --> 00:53:10,640 Showdown purist. But if I played classic, I'm 857 00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:13,480 very, very big on, you know, diversification for risk 858 00:53:13,480 --> 00:53:16,400 management purposes. But I do think that Kyron would 859 00:53:16,400 --> 00:53:19,640 be a guy that I'd be pretty heavy on this week. 860 00:53:19,640 --> 00:53:24,360 So another player I wanted to talk about on this chart. 861 00:53:25,080 --> 00:53:27,760 So like you mentioned this earlier, running back has just 862 00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:29,840 kind of been such a mess this season. 863 00:53:30,400 --> 00:53:34,880 That really it's anyone that falls into that 15 to 20 fantasy 864 00:53:35,000 --> 00:53:38,760 expected fantasy point range is just like, all right, this guy's 865 00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:40,720 king. We just play these guys because 866 00:53:41,080 --> 00:53:45,960 no one else is doing anything really and this guy is going to 867 00:53:46,280 --> 00:53:49,320 just screw with the fantasy football world's head this 868 00:53:49,320 --> 00:53:51,640 season. This is going to be the player 869 00:53:51,640 --> 00:53:54,840 that messes with fantasy football players perception the 870 00:53:54,840 --> 00:53:58,640 most and it's Tony Pollard. So Tony Pollard has 871 00:53:58,640 --> 00:54:02,360 disappointed. Pretty spectacularly through the 872 00:54:02,360 --> 00:54:05,400 first half of the season, like people were ready to leave Tony 873 00:54:05,400 --> 00:54:08,200 Pollard for dead. He's washed, he's dusty, 874 00:54:08,560 --> 00:54:12,480 etcetera, etcetera. Well, the Cowboys had played in 875 00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:17,720 such strange game scripts where it wasn't really necessary to, 876 00:54:18,440 --> 00:54:21,400 you know, have Tony Pollard pound the rock or we can use 877 00:54:21,400 --> 00:54:23,360 Rico Dowdell. Or we don't even really need to 878 00:54:23,360 --> 00:54:24,960 run. We're going to pass way above 879 00:54:24,960 --> 00:54:27,960 expectation. But offense is extremely 880 00:54:27,960 --> 00:54:30,320 efficient, though. They only ran 50 plays. 881 00:54:30,320 --> 00:54:34,160 Hang in there, you know 40 whatever points on Washington 882 00:54:34,160 --> 00:54:37,720 this week just because they couldn't stop scoring. 883 00:54:37,720 --> 00:54:41,200 They just scored too fast. And you know, Pollard had a 884 00:54:41,200 --> 00:54:44,000 decent game and he had a decent game against Carolina. 885 00:54:44,560 --> 00:54:48,000 What I'm what I'm seeing in Pollard, and this is me kind of 886 00:54:48,000 --> 00:54:51,440 reading the tea leaves and trying to pick out the trend is. 887 00:54:51,880 --> 00:54:55,000 The games or the Cowboys just smash where it's just hey, 888 00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:57,680 they're walking away with it and the game's over before it 889 00:54:57,680 --> 00:54:59,760 starts. Those aren't the Pollard games 890 00:54:59,760 --> 00:55:02,320 you want. Sure you could get there on like 891 00:55:02,320 --> 00:55:06,800 a random because we saw early in the season he had crazy high 892 00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:09,160 expected fantasy points because they were just giving him a 893 00:55:09,160 --> 00:55:11,480 bunch of goal line carries and they weren't getting converted. 894 00:55:11,680 --> 00:55:15,440 But like you can run into that same game script where the 895 00:55:15,440 --> 00:55:18,960 Cowboys are stomping. Pollard gets like 6 Green Zone 896 00:55:18,960 --> 00:55:22,760 touches, but then he converts. And if he does that, you can 897 00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:24,600 still get a smash game from Tony Pollard. 898 00:55:24,600 --> 00:55:26,240 But I don't. Those aren't the ones I really 899 00:55:26,240 --> 00:55:29,000 want to bet on. What I want to bet on for Tony 900 00:55:29,000 --> 00:55:32,160 Pollard are games where the Cowboys are in the game. 901 00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:35,520 Because in this game against Washington it was actually close 902 00:55:35,520 --> 00:55:39,440 for a decent chunk of the game. It wasn't over for for a while, 903 00:55:39,520 --> 00:55:43,680 you know, And Pollard still got a good amount of work because of 904 00:55:43,680 --> 00:55:44,560 that. And so. 905 00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:48,200 As you get later in the season, especially heading into playoff 906 00:55:48,200 --> 00:55:52,320 basketball, what I really want in my heart of hearts is I want 907 00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:55,440 Tony Pollard to have a couple more disappointing games. 908 00:55:55,760 --> 00:55:59,440 Ideally the most disappointing games, like, right as the 909 00:55:59,440 --> 00:56:02,520 Gauntlet gets released, like, and then the first couple weeks 910 00:56:02,520 --> 00:56:05,440 of the Gauntlet, I need Tony to just dud out. 911 00:56:05,440 --> 00:56:08,800 I need some real eggs, some absolute stinker goosers, you 912 00:56:08,800 --> 00:56:10,600 know. And I will. 913 00:56:11,240 --> 00:56:14,240 Load. Just back up the truck and give 914 00:56:14,240 --> 00:56:19,240 me all of the Pollard that I can possibly take because I like I 915 00:56:19,240 --> 00:56:21,560 have a newsflash they're going to play real teams in the 916 00:56:21,560 --> 00:56:23,840 playoffs. And I I don't think the Cowboys 917 00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:25,640 are as good as their record indicates. 918 00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:28,360 They've played a lot of soft teams and they've gotten dog 919 00:56:28,360 --> 00:56:30,200 walked by. You know the one good team they 920 00:56:30,200 --> 00:56:32,840 played in the 49ers? They're going to play good teams 921 00:56:32,840 --> 00:56:34,800 in the playoffs. They're going to be close and 922 00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:36,520 Pollard's going to remain more involved. 923 00:56:36,520 --> 00:56:40,680 They won't just be able to pass at will and let CD Lamb go crazy 924 00:56:40,680 --> 00:56:43,200 for, you know, $1.50 and two touchdowns every game. 925 00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:46,400 So that's my Pollard take. He's going to frustrate people 926 00:56:46,400 --> 00:56:49,960 more here as the Cowboys blow out a couple bad teams to wrap 927 00:56:49,960 --> 00:56:52,520 up their really soft schedule for the regular season. 928 00:56:52,880 --> 00:56:55,240 Then you get into playoff basketball and you get some 929 00:56:55,240 --> 00:56:57,640 truly phenomenal performances from Tony Pollard. 930 00:56:58,120 --> 00:57:06,880 So and just a just a question I I guess play devil's advocate a 931 00:57:06,880 --> 00:57:13,520 bit as sort of like a keystone part of that argument it our our 932 00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:16,040 foundational piece of our argument is that Tony Pollard 933 00:57:16,040 --> 00:57:25,760 remains good and I guess I'm I'm I'm not quite convinced that he 934 00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:31,440 is so good and I guess what what's the I I guess the 935 00:57:31,440 --> 00:57:36,120 argument that he's not that good is that he hasn't been that good 936 00:57:36,120 --> 00:57:39,840 in terms of rushing yards over expected like his next Gen. 937 00:57:40,640 --> 00:57:43,000 rushing yards over expected has been for two. 938 00:57:43,280 --> 00:57:47,280 Like it's not just it's not just the touchdown stuff like the 939 00:57:47,280 --> 00:57:50,680 yardage hasn't really been there either and on an offense that 940 00:57:50,680 --> 00:57:52,840 like where the argument's like oh the offense been it's been 941 00:57:52,840 --> 00:57:54,360 too good for him to get the ball enough. 942 00:57:54,920 --> 00:57:57,640 Well, why hasn't it been too good when it's going through 943 00:57:57,640 --> 00:57:59,840 him? Yeah, and my counterpoint to 944 00:57:59,840 --> 00:58:01,880 that is it doesn't matter if he's good or not. 945 00:58:01,880 --> 00:58:03,960 Like, it doesn't matter if your running back is good or not. 946 00:58:03,960 --> 00:58:06,960 Because Kyron Williams is like one of the most sub athlete, 947 00:58:06,960 --> 00:58:11,840 like literal Jag players in the NFL and he's the second best 948 00:58:11,840 --> 00:58:13,320 running back for fantasy football. 949 00:58:13,640 --> 00:58:17,680 Devin Singletary. Like, I can beat in a foot race 950 00:58:17,680 --> 00:58:21,320 on my best day, you know, And he's also doing really well for 951 00:58:21,320 --> 00:58:25,960 fantasy football, like. So I don't think that the talent 952 00:58:25,960 --> 00:58:28,040 of the running back matters at all. 953 00:58:29,200 --> 00:58:32,440 And I, you know, except on the very fringe, cases like does the 954 00:58:32,440 --> 00:58:34,120 talent matter for Christian McCaffrey? 955 00:58:34,160 --> 00:58:36,760 Sure 'cause he's insanely good, right? 956 00:58:38,040 --> 00:58:39,400 But yeah, I don't think it matters. 957 00:58:39,400 --> 00:58:43,000 I think the offense matters most, more than anything. 958 00:58:43,280 --> 00:58:47,080 And then I also, I think it's probably 50-50 that Tony 959 00:58:47,080 --> 00:58:50,960 Pollard's absolutely washed, just unplayable or or that he's 960 00:58:50,960 --> 00:58:55,160 actually still pretty good. And I I tend to learn more in 961 00:58:55,160 --> 00:58:56,560 the camp, that he's still pretty good. 962 00:58:56,960 --> 00:58:59,440 In fact, his passing game involvement had been down 963 00:58:59,560 --> 00:59:02,760 through the bulk of the season. But these last couple weeks he 964 00:59:02,760 --> 00:59:06,200 started seeing a little bit more work in the passing game. 965 00:59:06,520 --> 00:59:10,680 And again it's the game is like kind of close while he's getting 966 00:59:10,680 --> 00:59:14,160 this passing down work or these you know, targets of the passing 967 00:59:14,160 --> 00:59:17,000 game. And so that to me those high 968 00:59:17,000 --> 00:59:21,040 value touches, you know, you're you're basically saying like the 969 00:59:21,040 --> 00:59:24,320 Cowboys don't score explosive touchdowns and end up in the 970 00:59:24,320 --> 00:59:28,560 Green Zone and Paula does get. You know, one or two of those a 971 00:59:28,560 --> 00:59:32,680 game, and then he gets his three to six targets and all of a 972 00:59:32,680 --> 00:59:36,800 sudden you're looking at a running back with very squarely 973 00:59:36,800 --> 00:59:40,960 in that 15 to the high end of 20 expected fantasy points per 974 00:59:40,960 --> 00:59:43,800 game. And I just, I my, my big thing 975 00:59:43,800 --> 00:59:47,120 is a price here because I think that you're going to get a 976 00:59:47,120 --> 00:59:49,400 market that's so frustrated at this player. 977 00:59:49,600 --> 00:59:53,320 The sentiment is so public and so strongly negative like. 978 00:59:54,200 --> 00:59:57,600 I mean if you just put out a a poll on Twitter right now you 979 00:59:57,640 --> 01:00:00,800 know with how how many people are excited to draft Tony 980 01:00:00,800 --> 01:00:04,480 Pollard and playoff best ball like you're you're not gonna get 981 01:00:04,600 --> 01:00:07,520 hardly anyone that's excited. Let's let me, I'll, I'll pull up 982 01:00:07,520 --> 01:00:10,480 his ADP here. Yeah, that that's just what I 983 01:00:10,480 --> 01:00:14,280 was doing. And so Tony Pollard. 984 01:00:14,560 --> 01:00:20,880 His AV is 16. OK I I I mean and and so it 985 01:00:20,880 --> 01:00:24,120 sounded like the the the the the the way you you were sort of 986 01:00:24,120 --> 01:00:28,680 framing Tony Pollard was that like OK sort of admitting that 987 01:00:29,200 --> 01:00:32,480 some of the some of the big plays and stuff like that for 988 01:00:32,480 --> 01:00:34,840 him has hasn't been there this year. 989 01:00:35,400 --> 01:00:42,040 And and but ultimately agnostic on whether he's still any good 990 01:00:42,040 --> 01:00:46,440 or not. Because when in in close games 991 01:00:47,040 --> 01:00:50,640 hit hit his even though even though his EP hasn't been that 992 01:00:50,640 --> 01:00:54,760 good in lots of games but in close games it will be good and 993 01:00:55,360 --> 01:00:58,760 and that at a cheap enough price you're willing to bet on that. 994 01:00:59,680 --> 01:01:03,320 Yeah, absolutely. And and yeah, his price looks 995 01:01:03,560 --> 01:01:07,720 pretty appropriate in the current playoff baseball ADP. 996 01:01:08,960 --> 01:01:11,480 Good Lord, though. Gus Edwards is way too cheap. 997 01:01:11,480 --> 01:01:13,640 People don't get how to play this game at all. 998 01:01:13,640 --> 01:01:17,960 This is hilarious. Yeah, like what are we doing? 999 01:01:18,720 --> 01:01:22,840 That's a that's a good question. I saw that I think Keaton 1000 01:01:22,840 --> 01:01:27,600 Mitchell got the first carry for the Ravens and then I think he 1001 01:01:27,600 --> 01:01:32,560 he led Reinbach's in touches for against the Chargers. 1002 01:01:32,800 --> 01:01:37,400 So I I guess there maybe I'm giving the market way too much 1003 01:01:37,400 --> 01:01:41,240 credit here, but there does seem like a little bit of a risk 1004 01:01:41,240 --> 01:01:43,360 cured up. He's sort of getting flipped. 1005 01:01:43,840 --> 01:01:48,120 Yeah, I mean, the market has Keaton Mitchell, 13 picks past 1006 01:01:48,120 --> 01:01:51,160 Gus Edwards, though. So it's not the market's not 1007 01:01:51,160 --> 01:01:53,000 doing anything sharp. They're just the. 1008 01:01:53,240 --> 01:01:57,400 I mean, the Ravens in general are grossly mispriced. 1009 01:01:58,320 --> 01:02:01,440 Like, yeah, atrociously mispriced. 1010 01:02:02,760 --> 01:02:05,440 So. Yeah, I mean, I'm on Ross St. 1011 01:02:05,440 --> 01:02:08,360 Brown is like probably one of the worst price players. 1012 01:02:08,600 --> 01:02:10,920 Travis Kelsey is also really poorly priced. 1013 01:02:11,520 --> 01:02:14,560 So, yeah, there there's just a couple people where it shouldn't 1014 01:02:14,560 --> 01:02:22,440 be, shouldn't be going, where they're going and yeah, and 1015 01:02:22,840 --> 01:02:25,640 makes that makes sense, makes sense for sure. 1016 01:02:26,080 --> 01:02:30,360 And so I I guess we we've covered, we've covered Kyron 1017 01:02:30,360 --> 01:02:32,880 Williams, we've covered Eckler, we covered Singletary. 1018 01:02:33,840 --> 01:02:39,480 And the last guy I had that because again we we say this a 1019 01:02:39,480 --> 01:02:42,080 lot but like most of this stuff is relatively stable. 1020 01:02:42,080 --> 01:02:45,480 We kind of know like if we don't talk about a guy it's it's just 1021 01:02:45,480 --> 01:02:48,680 kind of because status quo. But one guy that I did have a 1022 01:02:48,680 --> 01:02:52,160 note on was Roshan Johnson is back to that. 1023 01:02:52,840 --> 01:02:56,160 Really good, high value touch role that he had in the very 1024 01:02:56,160 --> 01:02:59,760 beginning of the season. Super active in the passing 1025 01:02:59,760 --> 01:03:01,360 game. Looks good too. 1026 01:03:01,480 --> 01:03:06,160 Like, looks like he definitely could be the best back on the 1027 01:03:06,160 --> 01:03:09,200 team, you know? I know that Herbert's been 1028 01:03:09,200 --> 01:03:15,040 really efficient, but man, Rochon #1, he's got that dog in 1029 01:03:15,040 --> 01:03:16,560 him. There was a great play where 1030 01:03:16,560 --> 01:03:19,280 Cole Comet caught a pass really needed. 1031 01:03:19,840 --> 01:03:23,480 Some some oomph to get him a first down and Roshan just gets 1032 01:03:23,480 --> 01:03:26,760 behind him plants his hands squarely on his Turkus and 1033 01:03:26,760 --> 01:03:28,600 starts pushing the man for the first down. 1034 01:03:28,600 --> 01:03:32,080 It was it was like God, you you know that when they're watching 1035 01:03:32,080 --> 01:03:34,520 that one in the film room this week, they're high five. 1036 01:03:34,920 --> 01:03:36,760 Oh yeah, they're clapping him on the back. 1037 01:03:36,760 --> 01:03:39,640 He's he's getting all the love it was it was a dog play for 1038 01:03:39,640 --> 01:03:42,120 sure and he he had a bunch of stuff like that man. 1039 01:03:42,120 --> 01:03:45,120 He's just, he looks like a really good football player and 1040 01:03:45,120 --> 01:03:47,080 that's. And that's super consistent with 1041 01:03:47,080 --> 01:03:52,040 what the best analysts and college prospect, you know, guys 1042 01:03:52,440 --> 01:03:55,160 had had been saying. And what I'd heard with him 1043 01:03:55,160 --> 01:03:58,720 coming out was that he, he's just a really good football 1044 01:03:58,720 --> 01:04:00,200 player. Like you're going to, you're 1045 01:04:00,200 --> 01:04:02,960 going to want this guy. And I think that's true. 1046 01:04:03,920 --> 01:04:07,200 One one thing I'm looking at and this is more of a. 1047 01:04:07,680 --> 01:04:10,120 I don't know how fantasy relevant Roshawn Johnson's going 1048 01:04:10,120 --> 01:04:11,760 to be for the end of this season. 1049 01:04:11,760 --> 01:04:13,680 Like, probably fringe running back starter. 1050 01:04:13,680 --> 01:04:15,600 Like, definitely relevant on showdown slates. 1051 01:04:15,600 --> 01:04:17,920 But like, you know, that's that's probably about it. 1052 01:04:19,760 --> 01:04:23,520 I'm looking for the Bears to make a head coaching change and 1053 01:04:23,520 --> 01:04:25,880 then I'm interested in Roshawn Johnson next season. 1054 01:04:26,120 --> 01:04:28,880 I know that might sound counterintuitive because, like 1055 01:04:28,880 --> 01:04:30,920 when you get a regime change, sometimes they're not as into 1056 01:04:30,920 --> 01:04:33,160 the guy. Number one, I think he's good 1057 01:04:33,160 --> 01:04:35,640 enough at football that any regime's gonna be like, oh, we 1058 01:04:35,640 --> 01:04:39,560 like that guy and #2, I think the Bears are so grossly 1059 01:04:39,560 --> 01:04:42,040 incompetent on offense. Like it. 1060 01:04:42,040 --> 01:04:46,840 It's just like the dude. It it just looks like, you know 1061 01:04:47,400 --> 01:04:50,320 people don't care. Like the the quality control is 1062 01:04:50,680 --> 01:04:53,200 despicable with the Bears team. Like I'm. 1063 01:04:53,800 --> 01:04:57,360 I'm pretty sure that if you went there and you got the head 1064 01:04:57,360 --> 01:05:00,320 coaching job, like there would be less mistakes than are 1065 01:05:00,320 --> 01:05:03,080 currently happening with the Bears offense because it's it is 1066 01:05:03,080 --> 01:05:05,160 some it's bullshit, dude. Like watching. 1067 01:05:05,160 --> 01:05:06,920 It is so frustrating to be like, what? 1068 01:05:07,280 --> 01:05:11,520 What's happening here? Like how how is this allowed in 1069 01:05:11,520 --> 01:05:14,560 in a real NFL game? Like what the fuck is going on 1070 01:05:15,000 --> 01:05:17,600 during the week that this is the product that you're putting on 1071 01:05:17,600 --> 01:05:19,760 the field. But anyway, that's my my Bears 1072 01:05:19,760 --> 01:05:21,320 ranting. I got a little tilted watching 1073 01:05:21,320 --> 01:05:24,320 that island game. It it was a frustrating game for 1074 01:05:24,320 --> 01:05:28,160 sure. I I I know we we had a comment 1075 01:05:28,160 --> 01:05:31,480 here about Jalen Warren. Frustrating to see that he's 1076 01:05:31,480 --> 01:05:35,920 still not he he he was called the starter but he's not the 1077 01:05:35,920 --> 01:05:38,560 starter and we talked a little bit about a little bit about 1078 01:05:38,560 --> 01:05:43,360 this I think last week where it's sort of like the same as 1079 01:05:43,360 --> 01:05:45,920 it's been like they they're they're mixing around with 1080 01:05:45,920 --> 01:05:52,640 titles where it's sort of like a a 5050 split and yeah that that 1081 01:05:52,640 --> 01:05:56,760 that's they they haven't given up on it Naji enough to just 1082 01:05:56,760 --> 01:05:59,000 like completely bench him. I don't. 1083 01:05:59,000 --> 01:06:01,320 I don't think it's gonna happen right like you're just you're 1084 01:06:01,320 --> 01:06:05,000 gonna you're gonna perpetually it's it's like the Zeke Pollard 1085 01:06:05,000 --> 01:06:07,120 stuff. You're gonna perpetually want 1086 01:06:07,480 --> 01:06:10,360 more touches for the guy that we're all excited about the more 1087 01:06:10,360 --> 01:06:13,000 explosive player and you're just not gonna get him. 1088 01:06:14,240 --> 01:06:17,800 That's just the way the cookie crumbles here, you know, Right. 1089 01:06:19,040 --> 01:06:22,280 And that's that's why with somebody who's like a sort of 1090 01:06:22,280 --> 01:06:26,960 like a in a backup row, you wanna be very careful about the 1091 01:06:26,960 --> 01:06:29,240 price you paid. Like Warren is somebody I 1092 01:06:29,240 --> 01:06:32,760 remember sort of surging of draft boards and he went from 1093 01:06:32,760 --> 01:06:36,440 like a really attractive price to I wanna say was it the seven 1094 01:06:36,440 --> 01:06:40,120 or eight round that he he. He he finished. 1095 01:06:40,120 --> 01:06:44,680 I wanna say in like the low, like the the 10th right around 1096 01:06:44,680 --> 01:06:46,080 the 10th. You were. 1097 01:06:46,080 --> 01:06:48,400 You could get him in like the one 60s. 1098 01:06:48,400 --> 01:06:51,360 For a while I I had, I think there was one point in this 1099 01:06:51,360 --> 01:06:54,680 offseason where I had something like 60% Jalen Warren or 1100 01:06:54,680 --> 01:06:56,960 something absurd. I finished around, I want to say 1101 01:06:56,960 --> 01:06:59,600 like 30%. But yeah, when he was going 1102 01:06:59,600 --> 01:07:04,080 late, it was like, the only reason I didn't draft him was I 1103 01:07:04,080 --> 01:07:07,400 was like, God, it's gonna be really weird if I find my way to 1104 01:07:07,400 --> 01:07:10,160 like 100% Jalen Warren. So I should just I shouldn't 1105 01:07:10,160 --> 01:07:18,520 click in some of these drafts but yeah yeah makes sense. 1106 01:07:18,520 --> 01:07:21,840 I I I don't know what I was thinking there with I I just I 1107 01:07:21,840 --> 01:07:26,640 just remember him going up to a price where he he was he was no 1108 01:07:26,640 --> 01:07:31,960 longer attractive for for his sort of backup role and and I 1109 01:07:31,960 --> 01:07:36,120 guess you're still getting some payoff the fact that you got him 1110 01:07:36,120 --> 01:07:39,440 in a tent and and you're still getting sort of like a what is 1111 01:07:39,440 --> 01:07:42,320 it above 10 expected points per game that's that's like a good 1112 01:07:42,320 --> 01:07:46,840 outcome it's just that I guess not a the smashed up folks were 1113 01:07:46,840 --> 01:07:48,360 hoping for. No. 1114 01:07:48,360 --> 01:07:52,080 Yeah, I I certainly think you're happy with with what you're 1115 01:07:52,080 --> 01:07:55,480 getting from Jalen Warren. Yeah. 1116 01:07:55,480 --> 01:07:58,520 It's you know it's it's the same price that we drafted Alexander 1117 01:07:58,520 --> 01:08:03,080 Madison at forever and this guy definitely gave you more than 1118 01:08:03,080 --> 01:08:05,240 Madison. He hasn't had the you know, the 1119 01:08:05,240 --> 01:08:08,560 Naji Harris is injured. You know all Dalvin Cook is 1120 01:08:08,560 --> 01:08:10,760 injured. Madison smashes couple games of 1121 01:08:10,760 --> 01:08:13,320 the season, but. He's he's had a couple spike 1122 01:08:13,320 --> 01:08:17,560 weeks and like, you know, I I wouldn't be surprised if Jalen 1123 01:08:17,560 --> 01:08:19,000 Warren's best game is yet to come. 1124 01:08:19,000 --> 01:08:21,800 Still you know still still a decent amount of season left so 1125 01:08:22,960 --> 01:08:27,640 for sure and so moving on to the second running back chart and 1126 01:08:27,640 --> 01:08:32,479 and it's the same chart but we essentially players who's and 1127 01:08:32,479 --> 01:08:33,880 tell me if I'm explaining this wrong. 1128 01:08:34,080 --> 01:08:39,080 If somebody has a 22 expected points or let's say 12 expected 1129 01:08:39,080 --> 01:08:44,080 points per game and then another player has 13 if we put them 1130 01:08:44,080 --> 01:08:46,439 both on the same chart they're going to overlap each other it's 1131 01:08:46,439 --> 01:08:47,760 going to be difficult to read them. 1132 01:08:48,000 --> 01:08:52,600 So what we do is we put the 12, the evens, so 1214 blah blah 1133 01:08:52,600 --> 01:08:57,240 blah on one chart and the odds 13/15/17 on another chart. 1134 01:08:57,240 --> 01:09:00,800 That way you get 2 charts that are readable rather than one 1135 01:09:01,040 --> 01:09:06,640 chart that is just a a sublash bash of unreadable dots. 1136 01:09:07,319 --> 01:09:09,800 Did I get that right? That's that's basically it. 1137 01:09:09,800 --> 01:09:13,439 It's it's instead of it being by their fantasy points even odd, 1138 01:09:13,439 --> 01:09:16,120 it's by their ranking by expected points, even or odd. 1139 01:09:16,120 --> 01:09:21,160 But that's very semantical. But yes, it's it's seemingly 1140 01:09:21,160 --> 01:09:26,040 arbitrary, but it's designed to try and optimally display the 1141 01:09:26,040 --> 01:09:29,240 data points so that you guys can actually read them rather than 1142 01:09:29,279 --> 01:09:32,200 give you an unreadable mess. Right. 1143 01:09:32,200 --> 01:09:36,600 OK, OK. And we 12 in and I finally 1144 01:09:36,600 --> 01:09:39,840 understand that our our our charts great. 1145 01:09:41,240 --> 01:09:46,720 So this is I guess it's a little interesting that Charbonnet, I 1146 01:09:46,720 --> 01:09:50,000 know we talked about them a little bit, Charbonnet is still 1147 01:09:50,040 --> 01:09:53,399 and and I think this point to to your point you were making is 1148 01:09:53,600 --> 01:09:56,000 because the offense is not being great. 1149 01:09:56,320 --> 01:09:59,640 That's meant that the expected points have still been pretty 1150 01:09:59,640 --> 01:10:03,000 limited for them. Yeah and and this is a thing 1151 01:10:03,000 --> 01:10:07,600 that this is like the most God, this is, this is just like a bad 1152 01:10:07,600 --> 01:10:12,360 habit from back when I was you know, a a wee lad playing 1153 01:10:12,360 --> 01:10:15,280 fantasy football. But I would comb through box 1154 01:10:15,280 --> 01:10:19,120 scores right and look at what the guys had done in previous 1155 01:10:19,120 --> 01:10:22,120 weeks. And I would, I would just like 1156 01:10:22,120 --> 01:10:25,440 assign touchdown variants as I was coming through the box 1157 01:10:25,440 --> 01:10:27,880 scores. Just the like most basic level 1158 01:10:27,880 --> 01:10:32,760 of like pseudo analysis like. Well, what if I added a 1159 01:10:32,760 --> 01:10:35,360 touchdown to this box score? Now how does it look? 1160 01:10:35,360 --> 01:10:37,800 Or what if I take away a touchdown for this box score? 1161 01:10:37,800 --> 01:10:41,080 Now how does it look? And and so I do that for 1162 01:10:41,080 --> 01:10:45,160 everyone and kind of have like a a weak, you know, range of 1163 01:10:45,160 --> 01:10:47,280 outcomes for that. Could it have been even better 1164 01:10:47,280 --> 01:10:49,920 for. And so for Charbonnet where the 1165 01:10:49,920 --> 01:10:53,400 Seahawks suck on offense, they're not being productive. 1166 01:10:53,600 --> 01:10:57,520 You know they're not sustaining drives and so. 1167 01:10:58,560 --> 01:11:02,400 In in a world where they get that shit figured out and they 1168 01:11:02,400 --> 01:11:05,840 sustain some drives and like let's just say you get one goal 1169 01:11:05,840 --> 01:11:09,400 line carry for Charbonnet, a goal line carries about, you 1170 01:11:09,400 --> 01:11:12,280 know, more or less 3 expected fantasy points, you know, give 1171 01:11:12,280 --> 01:11:15,560 and take a little bit. So I mean, shoot, you give them 1172 01:11:15,680 --> 01:11:18,840 even three more expected fantasy points in a game and all of a 1173 01:11:18,840 --> 01:11:21,520 sudden my guy's like getting close to that 15 expected 1174 01:11:21,520 --> 01:11:25,520 fantasy point threshold. So I do think that Charbonnet is 1175 01:11:25,520 --> 01:11:30,000 someone where. He he could be surprising. 1176 01:11:31,320 --> 01:11:34,360 Not that the Cowboys defense is like the place you really want 1177 01:11:34,360 --> 01:11:38,360 to test it but like couldn't Couldn't you see it being a trap 1178 01:11:38,360 --> 01:11:39,840 A bit of a trap game for the cowboy. 1179 01:11:39,840 --> 01:11:41,880 We're getting reeled down in a narrative St. here. 1180 01:11:41,880 --> 01:11:46,240 This is what the here's I think here's maybe a simpler way. 1181 01:11:46,240 --> 01:11:49,640 If I just filter it down to the last two weeks, it pumps 1182 01:11:49,640 --> 01:11:53,240 Charbonnet and and those have been the weeks where Kenny 1183 01:11:53,240 --> 01:11:56,720 Walker is missed. It's 15 expected points per 1184 01:11:56,720 --> 01:11:59,960 game. And then let me just look at at 1185 01:11:59,960 --> 01:12:04,440 last week and sorry Mike, well, I I guess last week was 30 1186 01:12:04,440 --> 01:12:10,320 unexpected points and so last two weeks it's been at 15 with 1187 01:12:10,320 --> 01:12:12,880 the the Kenneth Walker injury more pronounced. 1188 01:12:13,360 --> 01:12:18,640 So like you're saying if if the offense can just play a little 1189 01:12:18,640 --> 01:12:22,800 bit better then then Chardonnay can benefit disproportionately. 1190 01:12:22,800 --> 01:12:27,240 So that that's sort of your upside case but still sort of I 1191 01:12:27,240 --> 01:12:30,480 I think it makes it punctuates your point that the offense is 1192 01:12:30,480 --> 01:12:35,320 the problem for him that he's got got this tremendous role and 1193 01:12:35,320 --> 01:12:39,040 and and without the expected points to go along with it. 1194 01:12:41,000 --> 01:12:46,920 Yeah, then I'm just looking real quick at what Charbonnet's 1195 01:12:46,920 --> 01:12:50,160 salary is here. And he. 1196 01:12:51,640 --> 01:12:55,400 He comes in at 6800 for the Showdown slate, so he's below 1197 01:12:55,400 --> 01:12:58,720 Tyler Walkett, well below DK Metcalf. 1198 01:12:59,960 --> 01:13:05,400 A little bit more expensive than Smith and Jigba, but yeah, that 1199 01:13:05,400 --> 01:13:10,160 looks like I I think I'll probably be. 1200 01:13:10,480 --> 01:13:14,960 I mean, I think some 51 Dallas onslaughts was from Chardonnay 1201 01:13:14,960 --> 01:13:19,120 into Flex to mop up a bunch of like garbage time PPR stuff. 1202 01:13:19,600 --> 01:13:24,760 Sounds interesting to me and and so I, I, I I don't think we can 1203 01:13:24,760 --> 01:13:29,240 go by this chart without mentioning Jonathan Taylor who 1204 01:13:29,240 --> 01:13:31,480 unfortunately announced that he's going to have surgery on 1205 01:13:31,480 --> 01:13:34,480 his tongue and they're hoping to get him back in two or three 1206 01:13:34,480 --> 01:13:36,800 weeks. And then I saw some man 1207 01:13:37,400 --> 01:13:43,600 skepticism in the sort of like fantasy doctor intersection of 1208 01:13:43,600 --> 01:13:46,960 social media where they're like what tongue surgery has somebody 1209 01:13:46,960 --> 01:13:49,760 backed in two or three weeks. I I don't think it works like 1210 01:13:49,760 --> 01:13:57,160 that and so I I'm I I'm sort of devastated. 1211 01:13:57,640 --> 01:14:01,740 Three of my three of my teams I was looking to get into the play 1212 01:14:01,740 --> 01:14:04,560 offs had had Jonathan Taylor so that would be a pretty pretty 1213 01:14:04,560 --> 01:14:10,920 devastating blow for me. But on the flip side, if 1214 01:14:11,160 --> 01:14:16,240 Jonathan Taylor is out, if he is done, done, then it goes without 1215 01:14:16,240 --> 01:14:19,960 saying Zach Moss sort of like steps fully back into the role 1216 01:14:19,960 --> 01:14:25,120 he had before and when he was getting 15 to 20 expected points 1217 01:14:25,120 --> 01:14:31,240 per game and in terms of waivers and he's probably the the chalk 1218 01:14:31,600 --> 01:14:40,200 and smash player of the week in DFS and so just just worth 1219 01:14:40,400 --> 01:14:44,000 mentioning I suppose. Yeah, yeah, I mean, Zach Moss 1220 01:14:44,000 --> 01:14:48,920 will be all the way back and. I mean, God, I feel like at this 1221 01:14:48,920 --> 01:14:52,800 point with the timeline for Taylor, like even hoping for 1222 01:14:52,800 --> 01:14:56,160 like, oh, we might come back in time for the fantasy play. 1223 01:14:56,160 --> 01:14:58,200 Like maybe he's in time for Week 16. 1224 01:14:58,200 --> 01:15:01,800 Like, at this point you're you're literally just dreaming 1225 01:15:01,800 --> 01:15:05,160 for the week 17 pipe dream where Jonathan Taylor's been 1226 01:15:05,160 --> 01:15:08,520 activated. It's week 17 and it's it's you 1227 01:15:08,520 --> 01:15:11,120 and only you with JT in the finals. 1228 01:15:11,120 --> 01:15:14,400 And you're hoping that he can just ride with you for all the 1229 01:15:14,400 --> 01:15:18,320 money, which I mean. What a what a story that'll be 1230 01:15:18,320 --> 01:15:22,760 if JT comes back for week 17 that that we we might just have 1231 01:15:22,760 --> 01:15:26,920 to to send the games and boost J TS projection just because of 1232 01:15:26,960 --> 01:15:30,400 how great the story would be if JT wins someone all the money. 1233 01:15:30,880 --> 01:15:34,840 I I hope that somebody is me, but it's not. 1234 01:15:34,960 --> 01:15:36,680 It's not feeling too lucky right now. 1235 01:15:38,080 --> 01:15:41,920 God, I I don't know how. At this point, I'm like, just 1236 01:15:41,920 --> 01:15:43,680 done with the regular season. Sweat. 1237 01:15:43,680 --> 01:15:46,160 Like, can we just Fast forward this to week 17? 1238 01:15:46,160 --> 01:15:48,760 Like I'm ready. Ready for the real. 1239 01:15:48,760 --> 01:15:54,360 I need more serotonin. Yeah, I didn't have anyone else 1240 01:15:54,360 --> 01:15:56,720 I really needed to touch on on this chart. 1241 01:15:56,720 --> 01:16:00,120 I mean we kind of no I, I I I think we've sort of covered it. 1242 01:16:00,600 --> 01:16:05,480 I think we've sort of covered it and so on to the tight end chart 1243 01:16:05,480 --> 01:16:10,480 and this is tight end routes as a percentage of team dropbacks. 1244 01:16:10,720 --> 01:16:15,480 And obviously what we want in tight ends is we want them to be 1245 01:16:15,480 --> 01:16:18,360 running lots of routes and not only do we want them running 1246 01:16:18,360 --> 01:16:21,200 lots of routes, we also want them to get targeted on a high 1247 01:16:21,200 --> 01:16:24,200 percentage of their reps. So on the left hand side, we've 1248 01:16:24,200 --> 01:16:28,640 got targets per route run. So you can see that K Dotson he 1249 01:16:28,640 --> 01:16:33,240 he leads all tight ends over the last four weeks in routes as a 1250 01:16:33,240 --> 01:16:35,800 percentage of team dropbacks dropbacks. 1251 01:16:36,120 --> 01:16:41,600 But he's only targeted on 13% of his of his drop backs and so 1252 01:16:41,600 --> 01:16:45,200 that's why he he's sort of leading the the league in in 1253 01:16:45,200 --> 01:16:48,640 this important metric. But then he's he's he's pretty 1254 01:16:48,640 --> 01:16:53,400 average the per in the other important metric and that's sort 1255 01:16:53,400 --> 01:16:57,640 of where you get the the K dot and sort of like outcome where 1256 01:16:57,960 --> 01:16:59,520 he's still not scoring that many points. 1257 01:17:00,720 --> 01:17:06,480 Yeah, I. You know again, not a ton that's 1258 01:17:06,480 --> 01:17:09,480 gonna be brand new fresh takeaways for us on this chart. 1259 01:17:09,480 --> 01:17:14,840 It's mostly wise here. I did have one thing I wanted to 1260 01:17:14,960 --> 01:17:19,840 to note here. I mean Travis Kelsey has had a 1261 01:17:19,840 --> 01:17:22,960 dip in his production. I mean it was is fine this last 1262 01:17:22,960 --> 01:17:26,840 week he put together a couple poor weeks and I'm I'm wondering 1263 01:17:26,840 --> 01:17:30,040 here is this. Finally, the the beginning of 1264 01:17:30,040 --> 01:17:32,800 the end. Or if you want to go Taylor 1265 01:17:32,800 --> 01:17:35,320 Swift themed, is This the End of an Era? 1266 01:17:36,720 --> 01:17:48,040 With Travis Kelsey and I, I mean, the problem is that he is 1267 01:17:48,040 --> 01:17:52,880 older and this has been this. He's gone from a a career a few 1268 01:17:53,240 --> 01:17:56,480 soft tissue injuries to one of many soft tissue injuries. 1269 01:17:56,760 --> 01:18:04,160 So definitely the the engine light is on for sure and it's 1270 01:18:04,160 --> 01:18:08,240 still like I I guess it's still encouraging that his he's up 1271 01:18:08,240 --> 01:18:10,960 there on the route percentage because I know at the start of 1272 01:18:10,960 --> 01:18:15,000 the year with with him coming back from injury he'd be super 1273 01:18:15,000 --> 01:18:18,520 low on routes and then would have to make up for it on a 1274 01:18:18,600 --> 01:18:22,720 target for a run. But it I think it is encouraging 1275 01:18:22,720 --> 01:18:28,440 that he's still out there a lot. But then the A dot of just 7.2 1276 01:18:28,880 --> 01:18:30,560 dot. It doesn't feel like a Travis 1277 01:18:30,560 --> 01:18:34,800 Kelsey A dot. No, no, I I think that we're 1278 01:18:34,800 --> 01:18:38,160 starting to get the signal that I mean and and you can kind of 1279 01:18:38,160 --> 01:18:43,760 see it with like normally it it wouldn't matter that you know 1280 01:18:44,320 --> 01:18:46,720 Travis Kelsey was the only option on the Chiefs. 1281 01:18:46,720 --> 01:18:48,560 The ball would just go to him anyway. 1282 01:18:48,920 --> 01:18:51,440 But we've had a couple weeks where it's like the Chiefs are 1283 01:18:51,440 --> 01:18:54,960 trying to figure out how does our offense work. 1284 01:18:55,680 --> 01:18:59,800 Now and it it felt like they didn't feel as confident that 1285 01:18:59,800 --> 01:19:02,960 the answer was Travis Kelsey. Whether that's you know him 1286 01:19:02,960 --> 01:19:05,840 dealing with some underlying injuries that we don't know as 1287 01:19:05,840 --> 01:19:09,960 much about or you know they they know they're just getting so 1288 01:19:09,960 --> 01:19:12,320 much attention on him from the defense, they have to go 1289 01:19:12,320 --> 01:19:16,080 elsewhere. My my big thing is I want to 1290 01:19:16,080 --> 01:19:20,160 know how are you treating him for playoff best ball 'cause 1291 01:19:20,160 --> 01:19:22,800 right now he's got the second highest ADP. 1292 01:19:24,120 --> 01:19:29,000 Does that seem right to you? You know, are are you 1293 01:19:29,000 --> 01:19:30,240 interested? Are you buying? 1294 01:19:30,920 --> 01:19:36,440 So he's got the the second highest and say say that again 1295 01:19:36,440 --> 01:19:37,560 he's got the second highest, he's. 1296 01:19:37,560 --> 01:19:40,600 The second highest ADP, it goes CMC then Travis Kelsey. 1297 01:19:41,360 --> 01:19:43,800 Oh, that is. That doesn't make any sense. 1298 01:19:44,360 --> 01:19:48,280 Right. That's what I thought too and on 1299 01:19:48,280 --> 01:19:53,480 like 1/2 PPR site where there's no like benefit to being getting 1300 01:19:53,480 --> 01:19:59,920 a tight end designation like I'm I probably I I'm leaning a 1301 01:19:59,920 --> 01:20:05,040 little bit less on the side of Travis Kelsey is done like I I 1302 01:20:05,040 --> 01:20:08,000 still think the underlying metrics are are are Travis 1303 01:20:08,000 --> 01:20:12,800 Kelsey like and I I I had a look at the A dot stuff and that's 1304 01:20:12,800 --> 01:20:18,400 still sort of in line with where he's been in in other years but. 1305 01:20:20,040 --> 01:20:22,000 There, there is no. There's no good reason for him 1306 01:20:22,000 --> 01:20:24,720 to go in the first round or or the second round probably. 1307 01:20:25,520 --> 01:20:29,920 I think, I think for just the playoff probability for the 1308 01:20:29,920 --> 01:20:33,160 Chiefs, you know he probably should still go in the first 1309 01:20:33,160 --> 01:20:35,360 round. I think actually him and Mahomes 1310 01:20:35,360 --> 01:20:40,320 should likely flip and and it should likely be that that the 1311 01:20:40,320 --> 01:20:43,360 chief player that goes in the first round is Mahomes and then 1312 01:20:43,360 --> 01:20:47,200 he goes near the back end with Kelsey going in the second. 1313 01:20:47,800 --> 01:20:52,080 But right now if if the price is hold, I'll have almost no 1314 01:20:52,080 --> 01:20:56,880 Kelsey, you know I'll get the times where he slides and then 1315 01:20:56,880 --> 01:21:00,400 I'll play the Chiefs through other other avenues. 1316 01:21:00,400 --> 01:21:06,560 But the the other tight end that I wanted to talk about is tight 1317 01:21:06,560 --> 01:21:11,000 end, who is kind of the new hotness he he's certainly been, 1318 01:21:11,400 --> 01:21:17,120 you know, heavily discussed and and fond over, especially by 1. 1319 01:21:18,720 --> 01:21:23,520 You know, specific Bill's loving aficionado. 1320 01:21:23,720 --> 01:21:27,760 That's Dalton Kincaid. So Kincaid has crept up, you 1321 01:21:27,760 --> 01:21:30,920 know with the knocks injury. He's certainly on the field way 1322 01:21:30,920 --> 01:21:32,880 more often. He's running a lot of routes, 1323 01:21:32,880 --> 01:21:37,120 taking a lot more snaps. He's got a 19% targets per route 1324 01:21:37,120 --> 01:21:39,320 run. A dot's pretty low though it's 1325 01:21:39,320 --> 01:21:41,960 below 6. You know one of the lowest a 1326 01:21:41,960 --> 01:21:46,680 dots of anyone up there? So I I wanted to kind of do a 1327 01:21:46,680 --> 01:21:52,400 Dalton Kincaid versus other tight ends for you and have you 1328 01:21:52,400 --> 01:21:56,800 tell me rest of season who you'd rather have as you're starting 1329 01:21:56,800 --> 01:21:59,000 tight end you just gotta lock them in. 1330 01:22:00,360 --> 01:22:03,920 So let's let's kick it off here. Dalton Kincaid or Jake Ferguson. 1331 01:22:03,920 --> 01:22:08,520 Rest of the season. So Dalton Kincaid or Jake 1332 01:22:08,520 --> 01:22:10,840 Ferguson. And so you're you're you're 1333 01:22:10,840 --> 01:22:13,480 telling me. You're telling me I should just 1334 01:22:13,480 --> 01:22:17,320 assume that the other Bills guide doesn't come back? 1335 01:22:19,320 --> 01:22:22,680 Ambiguous. It's Oh, OK, OK. 1336 01:22:22,880 --> 01:22:30,200 So if it like as I guess my question would be and and and 1337 01:22:30,200 --> 01:22:33,080 this is something for for me to sort of chew over as I say it. 1338 01:22:33,600 --> 01:22:37,640 Has Dalton Kincaid played so well that he's a genie out of 1339 01:22:37,640 --> 01:22:43,160 the bottle player that was like OK and what's his name the the 1340 01:22:43,840 --> 01:22:47,080 the Dawson Knox. The Dawson Knox coming back just 1341 01:22:47,080 --> 01:22:55,320 has no impact on on Dalton Kincaid coming back I'm I'm a as 1342 01:22:55,320 --> 01:22:57,960 somebody I actually have quite I I have quite a bit of Dalton 1343 01:22:57,960 --> 01:23:00,800 Kincaid in in FFPC just because of the tight end premium. 1344 01:23:00,800 --> 01:23:06,360 I'm a little bit nervous about that prospect and and I don't 1345 01:23:06,360 --> 01:23:11,120 think you have that risk with with Jake Ferguson and you sort 1346 01:23:11,120 --> 01:23:15,320 of like you put them you you put them side by side here and 1347 01:23:15,320 --> 01:23:18,560 they've got very similar a dots similar targets per run similar 1348 01:23:18,560 --> 01:23:24,680 routes and the big thing in Kincaid's favor I suppose would 1349 01:23:24,680 --> 01:23:28,120 just be that the bills that they tend to throw an absurd number 1350 01:23:28,120 --> 01:23:33,760 of times and so his counting stats assuming they all hold 1351 01:23:33,840 --> 01:23:39,480 will will be better and but I guess I'm a little bit nervous 1352 01:23:39,560 --> 01:23:46,600 about Dawson Knox coming back and maybe maybe maybe I I give 1353 01:23:46,600 --> 01:23:50,720 that I give some benefit of the doubt there just because it's 1354 01:23:50,720 --> 01:23:55,360 it's the bills and and and they do have that much more passing 1355 01:23:55,360 --> 01:23:58,520 volume So I I think that that's sort of how I lean there. 1356 01:23:59,480 --> 01:24:02,360 Do they have that much more passing volume than the Cowboys 1357 01:24:02,960 --> 01:24:06,840 am? Am I just miss miss cause 'cause 1358 01:24:08,160 --> 01:24:11,120 maybe they you're right you're right not not this year right 1359 01:24:11,120 --> 01:24:15,120 because they have all the the first down runs they they 1360 01:24:15,160 --> 01:24:17,680 they've been establishing so I think I think you're right to 1361 01:24:17,680 --> 01:24:29,640 check me there and and so yeah that I I guess then me being let 1362 01:24:30,400 --> 01:24:33,840 me let me actually you know that that's that's where I I don't 1363 01:24:33,840 --> 01:24:41,600 want to just I don't want to just shoot from the hip so who 1364 01:24:41,600 --> 01:24:47,640 has run more pass plays this year just as a sort of. 1365 01:24:49,280 --> 01:24:55,800 I know have run have 38 passes at a game this year whereas 1366 01:24:56,000 --> 01:24:58,560 Dallas. The bye Dallas was certainly 1367 01:24:58,560 --> 01:25:03,320 below them, but I believe after the bye their their number of 1368 01:25:03,320 --> 01:25:07,040 pass plays per game. It's 39 for the for Dallas 1369 01:25:07,040 --> 01:25:11,600 versus 38 for the Bills. It just for for 60 minutes. 1370 01:25:12,320 --> 01:25:18,160 So if I so if anything, Dallas are higher and and and and I 1371 01:25:18,160 --> 01:25:20,520 guess that that was just me. I'm I'm glad you asked me there, 1372 01:25:20,520 --> 01:25:22,520 'cause that was just me being lazy, 'cause that that's what I 1373 01:25:22,520 --> 01:25:28,840 was what I'd sort of like taught And And then I guess the 1374 01:25:28,840 --> 01:25:31,960 question would be, do you just think that Dallas stays there? 1375 01:25:32,160 --> 01:25:34,880 And I suppose you have to because you're looking at 11 1376 01:25:34,880 --> 01:25:38,520 games of data there. And so with all that being said, 1377 01:25:38,520 --> 01:25:42,160 then, then I think, yeah, it's, it's, it's Jake Ferguson, right? 1378 01:25:42,720 --> 01:25:47,800 So the the 18th round tight end better choice than the 11th 1379 01:25:47,800 --> 01:25:51,440 round tight end. OK, so that's one. 1380 01:25:51,440 --> 01:25:53,160 That's one we want over Dalton Kincaid. 1381 01:25:53,160 --> 01:25:56,600 Let's go to another eighteenth round slash undrafted tight end 1382 01:25:56,600 --> 01:25:59,400 Trey McBride. Trey McBride or Dalton Kincaid? 1383 01:26:00,400 --> 01:26:04,160 Trey McBride or over Dalton Kincaid. 1384 01:26:05,440 --> 01:26:13,880 And that is tricky too. And it's sort of like Trey 1385 01:26:13,880 --> 01:26:15,880 McBride. He has like the the the good 1386 01:26:16,120 --> 01:26:21,400 targets part run and but you have the concerns that the 1387 01:26:21,400 --> 01:26:24,960 Arizona offense is it's just like it's splittering right 1388 01:26:25,440 --> 01:26:29,720 where it it's an offense where Trey McBride and and and 1389 01:26:29,720 --> 01:26:34,040 Hollywood Brown are the the key receivers and and you have Kyler 1390 01:26:34,040 --> 01:26:45,120 coming back from the the ACL. And so I I'm pretty, I'm pretty 1391 01:26:45,120 --> 01:26:47,640 tied there. I I I'm not sure I'm not even 1392 01:26:47,640 --> 01:26:51,840 sure like I I think it's so hard to analyze whereas like if I 1393 01:26:51,880 --> 01:26:55,600 think like Arizona, like play reasonably well then it's 1394 01:26:55,600 --> 01:26:59,480 McBride just 'cause he's so important for them and but it's 1395 01:26:59,480 --> 01:27:03,880 so hard for me to like to call that definitively what I'm how 1396 01:27:03,880 --> 01:27:08,280 are you looking at that that. For for that one, I think I'm, 1397 01:27:09,000 --> 01:27:12,360 I'm gonna be heavier towards the McBride side. 1398 01:27:12,360 --> 01:27:17,320 I do think that one's close. But I got a couple reasons. 1399 01:27:17,320 --> 01:27:21,760 Number one is I I do think that McBride is the better player and 1400 01:27:21,760 --> 01:27:26,160 receiver than Dalton Kincaid. Yeah, I agree with that for 1401 01:27:26,240 --> 01:27:27,680 sure. Yeah, #2. 1402 01:27:27,680 --> 01:27:31,000 I think that the recent down games that we've seen from 1403 01:27:31,000 --> 01:27:34,880 McBride kind of feel like his his floor outcomes and we've 1404 01:27:34,880 --> 01:27:38,200 seen what his ceiling is and Dalton Kincaid just hasn't shown 1405 01:27:38,200 --> 01:27:40,520 us anywhere close to the type of ceiling. 1406 01:27:41,120 --> 01:27:44,440 That Trey McBride has had as it and it's not for like lack of 1407 01:27:44,440 --> 01:27:46,960 the Bills trying to get him that ceiling right. 1408 01:27:46,960 --> 01:27:50,200 Like there have been some games where they are just forcing 1409 01:27:50,200 --> 01:27:54,080 everything to Kincaid. So I just give me McBride 1410 01:27:54,080 --> 01:27:57,920 because I think the range of outcomes is is better, right? 1411 01:27:58,640 --> 01:28:02,480 But I I've got an our next guy, our next tight end, another one 1412 01:28:02,480 --> 01:28:06,160 that you could have gotten after Dalton Kincaid, Sam Laporta or 1413 01:28:06,160 --> 01:28:10,800 Dalton Kincaid. I yeah, I think that's that's 1414 01:28:10,800 --> 01:28:12,960 supporter, right. Yeah, Allen's Allen's a no 1415 01:28:12,960 --> 01:28:13,840 brainer. Slam dunk. 1416 01:28:13,840 --> 01:28:15,720 We just we're in here to twist the knife. 1417 01:28:15,760 --> 01:28:17,640 We're twisting the knife to the Dalton, right? 1418 01:28:17,640 --> 01:28:19,720 Yeah, this was like the Auntie Liam show. 1419 01:28:19,720 --> 01:28:22,000 We're just like, kidding on the bills all the time. 1420 01:28:23,240 --> 01:28:26,120 All right, got another one. This one you actually would have 1421 01:28:26,120 --> 01:28:28,600 had to take this tight end before Dalton Kincaid. 1422 01:28:29,440 --> 01:28:33,960 So, you know, there's there's an argument there, but Evan Ingram 1423 01:28:34,120 --> 01:28:40,120 or Dalton Kincaid rest the season, and Evan Ingram, well, 1424 01:28:40,160 --> 01:28:41,840 they feel like very similar players. 1425 01:28:41,840 --> 01:28:46,760 That's the same player, right? That's the same like Evan Ingram 1426 01:28:46,760 --> 01:28:51,080 is more established you don't have the the the potential for 1427 01:28:51,080 --> 01:28:54,920 Dawson Knox to come back and and and just sort of like new cue. 1428 01:28:55,040 --> 01:29:03,720 So it it is, it is Evan Ingram. But the fact that we just like 1429 01:29:03,720 --> 01:29:08,080 took a bunch of like late round Flyers over Kincaid that that 1430 01:29:08,640 --> 01:29:10,960 this isn't a great comparison for Ingram either. 1431 01:29:11,440 --> 01:29:14,800 No, no, those are those are the exact same player in my mind. 1432 01:29:14,840 --> 01:29:17,960 Like if you made me pay more for one or the other, I'm just gonna 1433 01:29:17,960 --> 01:29:19,920 take the one that's cheaper. I don't really care. 1434 01:29:21,400 --> 01:29:24,880 And then I've only got two more and then we'll we'll be done 1435 01:29:24,880 --> 01:29:30,200 with tight end, I promise. Dalton Schultz or Dalton 1436 01:29:30,200 --> 01:29:32,600 Kincaid? Which Dalton do you prefer? 1437 01:29:33,040 --> 01:29:36,320 Which Dalton? 'Cause cause Dalton Schultz has 1438 01:29:36,320 --> 01:29:38,840 a better quarterback than Dalton Kincaid does. 1439 01:29:44,440 --> 01:29:46,440 Oh, that's funny. Do do you? 1440 01:29:46,440 --> 01:29:49,520 Are are you traveling there? Or do you mean that? 1441 01:29:49,520 --> 01:29:51,680 Dalton Schultz has a better passing quarterback than Dalton 1442 01:29:51,680 --> 01:29:54,160 Kincaid does, and that's facts. I'll take that to the bank. 1443 01:29:54,160 --> 01:29:56,000 Yeah, that's fair. That's fair. 1444 01:29:56,000 --> 01:30:01,520 He he's he's better for his receivers which I I I think is 1445 01:30:01,520 --> 01:30:09,400 fair so I I probably am Schultz and. 1446 01:30:09,960 --> 01:30:13,000 I'm actually Kincaid on this one, and it's just really, it's 1447 01:30:13,000 --> 01:30:17,000 for the target competition. You know, Schultz in. 1448 01:30:17,000 --> 01:30:21,040 In games where Nico and Tank are both healthy, it really looks 1449 01:30:21,040 --> 01:30:23,720 like Schultz kind of takes a little bit more of a back seat. 1450 01:30:24,560 --> 01:30:27,000 When you're missing one or the other of them, it definitely 1451 01:30:27,000 --> 01:30:30,880 seems like Schultz steps up a little more, but for me it's 1452 01:30:30,880 --> 01:30:33,920 like. Kincaid is just how. 1453 01:30:34,160 --> 01:30:37,800 How bad do the Bills feel about the fact that they either need 1454 01:30:37,800 --> 01:30:40,760 to throw to Gabe Davis or they need to throw to Khalil Shakur 1455 01:30:40,920 --> 01:30:43,880 on the particular day of the game that they're playing, 1456 01:30:45,320 --> 01:30:49,400 'cause you know what, you can tell when they're like, Jesus, 1457 01:30:49,400 --> 01:30:51,040 why? Why is Gabe Davis running 1458 01:30:51,040 --> 01:30:53,880 routes? Then they just pepper Kincaid 1459 01:30:53,880 --> 01:30:55,480 with, like, an absurd number of targets. 1460 01:30:55,480 --> 01:31:00,280 So I'm probably Kincaid over Schultz, but I do think they're 1461 01:31:00,280 --> 01:31:06,120 close. Yeah, that is that that that's 1462 01:31:06,120 --> 01:31:08,480 tough for sure. But I I think you're right where 1463 01:31:09,160 --> 01:31:11,720 when, when, when you have those two back that that that's when 1464 01:31:11,720 --> 01:31:13,760 you've seen short sort of like fall off. 1465 01:31:15,040 --> 01:31:16,320 OK. I got the last one. 1466 01:31:16,320 --> 01:31:20,400 Last one, OK. Cole Comet or Dalton Kincaid? 1467 01:31:21,440 --> 01:31:30,240 Cole Comet or Dalton Kincaid And I think, I think that's Cole 1468 01:31:30,240 --> 01:31:36,120 commit where you you have the same sort of thing where like 1469 01:31:36,120 --> 01:31:37,560 they want them getting the ball a lot. 1470 01:31:37,960 --> 01:31:43,240 But he he he just seems to. Maybe this is just too caveman, 1471 01:31:43,240 --> 01:31:46,880 but he seems to be better at delivering the the bigger weeks. 1472 01:31:46,880 --> 01:31:49,160 Just 'cause he's better at scoring touchdowns. 1473 01:31:49,160 --> 01:31:51,840 Yes, it's 'cause Cole Comet is better at football than Dalton. 1474 01:31:51,840 --> 01:31:55,440 Kicking Cole Comet on an offense with like a good quarterback 1475 01:31:55,440 --> 01:31:59,680 would be absurd. You know the the Justin Fields 1476 01:31:59,680 --> 01:32:03,480 plague and I say this is a man who drafted quite a bit of 1477 01:32:03,480 --> 01:32:05,200 Justin Fields. Like it's so painful. 1478 01:32:05,200 --> 01:32:07,920 And I I don't know that it's fair to put it all on Justin 1479 01:32:07,920 --> 01:32:09,280 Fields. But I'll tell you, I've watched 1480 01:32:09,280 --> 01:32:15,040 a paid, extraordinarily close attention to the Bears this 1481 01:32:15,040 --> 01:32:17,720 season. And man. 1482 01:32:18,880 --> 01:32:22,360 Yeah, either that coaching staff is just the worst coaching staff 1483 01:32:22,360 --> 01:32:26,960 in the NFL by a country mile, or Justin Fields is like not a 1484 01:32:26,960 --> 01:32:30,200 competent NFL passer. But I think the most likely 1485 01:32:30,200 --> 01:32:31,840 answer is that it's a mix of both. 1486 01:32:32,680 --> 01:32:36,360 But I do think Kolkomat is a really, really good NFL tight 1487 01:32:36,360 --> 01:32:38,360 end. And that, yeah, I agree. 1488 01:32:38,800 --> 01:32:41,480 I I watching the game last night, the thing that struck me 1489 01:32:41,480 --> 01:32:45,400 was that was more that the game plan that Bears had was just 1490 01:32:46,160 --> 01:32:51,640 absolutely absurdly bad. Like this idea where like 1491 01:32:52,240 --> 01:32:55,000 they're just trying screen pass over screen pass over screen 1492 01:32:55,000 --> 01:33:00,400 pass like oh God, if if you teamed your quarterback is is is 1493 01:33:00,400 --> 01:33:03,680 not the best and needs help that's what you shouldn't do. 1494 01:33:03,920 --> 01:33:05,320 Yes, like you. Thank you. 1495 01:33:06,480 --> 01:33:08,560 Yeah. I I mean not to go on a bear's 1496 01:33:08,560 --> 01:33:11,560 tirade, but like. I'm serious, man. 1497 01:33:11,560 --> 01:33:14,360 Like, if we gave you the head coaching job, it wouldn't be as 1498 01:33:14,400 --> 01:33:17,640 bad. Because look, all you do like 1499 01:33:17,640 --> 01:33:20,520 with the problems that it looks like Justin Fields is having, 1500 01:33:20,520 --> 01:33:24,080 which is that he's not. Even when a guy's wide ass open, 1501 01:33:24,080 --> 01:33:26,280 he's just not confident that that's the thing he's supposed 1502 01:33:26,280 --> 01:33:29,400 to do. Like the system is clearly too 1503 01:33:29,400 --> 01:33:32,640 complex for him. It needs to be 1 like. 1504 01:33:33,440 --> 01:33:36,040 There there should be receivers that are running routes with 0 1505 01:33:36,040 --> 01:33:37,640 expectation of ever getting the ball. 1506 01:33:37,640 --> 01:33:40,680 The defense doesn't need to know that, but Justin Fields needs to 1507 01:33:40,680 --> 01:33:44,080 know that it's a one. Read and go like, is Kolkamet 1508 01:33:44,080 --> 01:33:45,600 open? This play that was designed for 1509 01:33:45,600 --> 01:33:48,720 Kolkamet? No, don't worry about processing 1510 01:33:48,720 --> 01:33:51,560 shit, 'cause he's he's staring at stuff where it's like, this 1511 01:33:51,560 --> 01:33:54,440 dude's open, but then he's like, oh, but I'm supposed to progress 1512 01:33:54,440 --> 01:33:57,600 through my reads and he's just, he's freaking himself out, man. 1513 01:33:58,040 --> 01:34:03,280 I I think last night from what I saw when they went to like a 1514 01:34:03,280 --> 01:34:07,080 more traditional drop back passing game I thought Fields 1515 01:34:07,080 --> 01:34:10,880 was like OK I I thought he was like he was finding open guys 1516 01:34:10,880 --> 01:34:13,920 like the fumbles are bad. The fumbles are definitely bad 1517 01:34:14,360 --> 01:34:21,480 but I I I am and and and what do I know. 1518 01:34:21,480 --> 01:34:24,960 I I'm definitely sort of leaning towards the the coaching staff 1519 01:34:24,960 --> 01:34:27,800 just being like awful. I yeah, I'm not ready to write 1520 01:34:27,800 --> 01:34:33,080 off fields yet. You know, I I'm leaning more on 1521 01:34:33,080 --> 01:34:34,240 that. It's the coaching staff. 1522 01:34:34,240 --> 01:34:39,440 But he unfortunately, it feels like if the coaching staff 1523 01:34:39,440 --> 01:34:43,800 doesn't get canned this offseason, you might end up with 1524 01:34:43,800 --> 01:34:47,960 the kind of player whose career just gets sunk right. 1525 01:34:48,440 --> 01:34:50,600 You know, like it might. He didn't get the guidance that 1526 01:34:50,600 --> 01:34:52,680 he needed, that he got coached out of being good. 1527 01:34:53,400 --> 01:34:56,440 Yeah, so. Anyway, that was a a little bit 1528 01:34:56,440 --> 01:35:00,840 of a tangent from our game of why Dalton Kincaid was a bad 1529 01:35:00,840 --> 01:35:03,680 pick and why you should feel bad for dropping Dalton Kincaid. 1530 01:35:05,240 --> 01:35:11,320 We'll we'll leave the tight end chart here and just gonna cross 1531 01:35:11,320 --> 01:35:18,160 check here and pot fryer mood I know he was he was heavily well 1532 01:35:18,520 --> 01:35:25,640 19% targets per run not the not the highest route percentage but 1533 01:35:25,640 --> 01:35:31,840 I know he he had he had the solid box score and but I guess 1534 01:35:32,120 --> 01:35:35,240 it's encouraging for him that he played well on on the limited 1535 01:35:35,240 --> 01:35:39,280 snap share and the as he can sort of work himself back into 1536 01:35:39,320 --> 01:35:45,040 or or rehab his way and and and get more healthy and and more 1537 01:35:45,040 --> 01:35:48,600 fit encouraging that he was like an important part of the offense 1538 01:35:48,600 --> 01:35:53,240 like right away. Yeah, as a guy who has Kenny 1539 01:35:53,240 --> 01:35:56,560 Pickett of one of his most drafted quarterbacks and Pat 1540 01:35:56,560 --> 01:35:59,040 Fryermuth is one of his most drafted tight ends. 1541 01:35:59,320 --> 01:36:03,000 If you told me that, I could get a spike week from Pickett and 1542 01:36:03,000 --> 01:36:06,600 Fryermuth in the playoffs. I would be so happy. 1543 01:36:07,640 --> 01:36:11,320 So here's to hoping. Also, I need the Nix Mark 1544 01:36:11,320 --> 01:36:14,360 Andrews. From this chart we Yeah, yeah, 1545 01:36:14,680 --> 01:36:18,520 and what what I I didn't want to point it out, but I I I had the 1546 01:36:18,520 --> 01:36:19,720 same thought. That's OK. 1547 01:36:20,040 --> 01:36:22,680 My my bad. And no, I it was it. 1548 01:36:23,000 --> 01:36:25,680 It you asked me. I I should have called it out. 1549 01:36:26,040 --> 01:36:28,000 And before we yeah. When? 1550 01:36:28,000 --> 01:36:31,520 When I I should have looked at it and and and and and. 1551 01:36:31,760 --> 01:36:34,680 But and and what I'm saying is we we both take responsibility. 1552 01:36:35,400 --> 01:36:39,280 So weighted targets per out run and it's like normal targets per 1553 01:36:39,280 --> 01:36:44,800 out run, but it rewards targets down the field more than 1554 01:36:44,800 --> 01:36:47,840 targets, short or short targets that are close to the line of 1555 01:36:47,840 --> 01:36:50,080 scrimmage. And then we sort of chart that 1556 01:36:50,080 --> 01:36:53,760 against fantasy points per game and then the color of the dot 1557 01:36:53,800 --> 01:36:56,760 corresponds to what route percentage they have. 1558 01:36:59,160 --> 01:37:02,320 Anybody that sticks out to you on the receiver chart? 1559 01:37:03,320 --> 01:37:06,880 Yeah, I'm not entirely sure. I mean, I know that Cooper Cup 1560 01:37:07,120 --> 01:37:10,560 re aggravated the ankle injury and this season. 1561 01:37:10,560 --> 01:37:14,800 I mean you, you start with a hamstring injury, he misses 1562 01:37:14,800 --> 01:37:19,160 time, he gets the ankle injury and now he's not 100%. 1563 01:37:19,880 --> 01:37:23,840 To me, this really smells like the beginning of the end. 1564 01:37:23,920 --> 01:37:27,640 And I I've got a little quote that I prepared from ATS Eliot 1565 01:37:27,640 --> 01:37:32,000 poem The Hollow Man and it's this is the way a career ends, 1566 01:37:32,080 --> 01:37:34,360 not with a bang but with a whimper. 1567 01:37:34,760 --> 01:37:37,520 And I may have taken a little bit of liberty with that quote, 1568 01:37:37,920 --> 01:37:46,080 but I'm just, I'm really worried that we're we're seeing him. 1569 01:37:46,520 --> 01:37:49,560 You know, he's an older player. He's dealing with all these 1570 01:37:49,560 --> 01:37:53,320 injuries. I I'm worried that next season, 1571 01:37:54,280 --> 01:37:59,000 you know, you still might have to pay pretty, pretty high 1572 01:37:59,000 --> 01:38:00,920 Cooper Cup prices. Like, I don't. 1573 01:38:01,080 --> 01:38:03,800 I don't really see him being able to slide out of the second 1574 01:38:03,840 --> 01:38:08,360 round, right? Like, even even if the fantasy 1575 01:38:08,360 --> 01:38:12,040 community at large gets on board that the best of Cooper Cup is 1576 01:38:12,040 --> 01:38:14,800 behind us. Just because of his absurd 1577 01:38:14,800 --> 01:38:19,640 ceiling in the past, like I don't, I don't think he can ever 1578 01:38:19,640 --> 01:38:25,520 really go that late to where I'm gonna feel good about the risk 1579 01:38:25,520 --> 01:38:27,960 I'm taking on him. So do you do you think? 1580 01:38:28,400 --> 01:38:30,640 I I think you're right. What's that? 1581 01:38:30,960 --> 01:38:41,920 Am I overblowing it? And I I I think that and if 1582 01:38:42,080 --> 01:38:46,600 you're right that he doesn't go out of the second I agree with 1583 01:38:46,600 --> 01:38:49,760 your analysis. So like it's like it's one of 1584 01:38:49,760 --> 01:38:52,400 those things where we always come in here and try to make new 1585 01:38:52,400 --> 01:38:59,720 ones analysis and I don't like the poem was was was sort of 1586 01:38:59,720 --> 01:39:04,200 like I think for like a joke. But your point isn't that you 1587 01:39:04,200 --> 01:39:07,680 think Cooper Cup is done and and that you bet your life savings 1588 01:39:07,680 --> 01:39:10,880 that Cooper Cup never flows it down in the NFL. 1589 01:39:10,920 --> 01:39:12,040 Like that's not what you're saying. 1590 01:39:12,040 --> 01:39:17,760 I think what you're saying is that with an ADP on the market, 1591 01:39:17,760 --> 01:39:22,880 sort of like anchored to his prior production, that it will 1592 01:39:22,880 --> 01:39:28,760 not appropriately price the risk that he has has passed his well 1593 01:39:28,760 --> 01:39:31,960 past his bestest player, right? That that's the argument. 1594 01:39:32,000 --> 01:39:34,560 Yeah, you you nailed it. And and it's not even to say 1595 01:39:34,560 --> 01:39:37,080 that he can't hit and outperform like. 1596 01:39:37,840 --> 01:39:42,040 There's still so much, you know, like there's there's a good 1597 01:39:42,200 --> 01:39:45,480 probability that he out, say he goes in the middle of the 2nd 1598 01:39:45,520 --> 01:39:47,880 next year. There's still a good probability 1599 01:39:47,880 --> 01:39:51,160 he outperforms that. You get a he's fully healthy. 1600 01:39:51,400 --> 01:39:53,960 The Rams offense takes a step forward. 1601 01:39:53,960 --> 01:39:57,040 They get a couple pieces, they finally have a draft pick or two 1602 01:39:57,040 --> 01:39:59,920 or whatever, and like they're a little better. 1603 01:39:59,920 --> 01:40:03,440 And Cup's healthy and he does. Not quite vintage Cooper's Cup 1604 01:40:03,440 --> 01:40:06,400 stuff, but good enough to pay off a second round tag, right, 1605 01:40:06,680 --> 01:40:08,560 That's for sure. Sure possible. 1606 01:40:09,160 --> 01:40:14,600 But what I think is also really possible is you get another like 1607 01:40:14,600 --> 01:40:17,640 kind of lost season like this where he deals with soft tissue 1608 01:40:17,640 --> 01:40:21,040 injuries for a good chunk of the year or even when he's back. 1609 01:40:21,920 --> 01:40:25,120 It's more of like not the entirely dominant. 1610 01:40:25,120 --> 01:40:28,520 Like Cooper Cup gets everything and everyone else is gonna like 1611 01:40:28,520 --> 01:40:31,320 it type of role. But where hey there's games 1612 01:40:31,320 --> 01:40:34,080 where Cooper Cup gets his 10 targets and does his thing but 1613 01:40:34,400 --> 01:40:37,240 now they've got Puka Tekua and you know they've got a running 1614 01:40:37,240 --> 01:40:39,680 back that they're happy to give a lot of work to. 1615 01:40:39,680 --> 01:40:43,600 And maybe you know I I just I think that those absolute 1616 01:40:43,600 --> 01:40:47,520 ceiling outcomes are pretty thin and I think that the downside 1617 01:40:47,520 --> 01:40:51,440 where he ends up producing like a you know 4th, 5th, 6th round 1618 01:40:51,440 --> 01:40:55,560 receiver it is pretty likely as well. 1619 01:40:55,560 --> 01:40:59,800 And so I I think like a more reasonable price for him next 1620 01:40:59,800 --> 01:41:03,480 year would be like in the fourth round or like where where you 1621 01:41:03,480 --> 01:41:06,440 know Keenan Allen was going before he got steamed up. 1622 01:41:06,640 --> 01:41:10,400 You know like older, older player were less certain about 1623 01:41:10,400 --> 01:41:13,880 his health and ability to still produce at a high level. 1624 01:41:14,400 --> 01:41:17,360 Right now I. I think that's a good comp next 1625 01:41:17,360 --> 01:41:19,640 year. You should treat Cooper Cook 1626 01:41:19,960 --> 01:41:23,160 like Keenan Allen. Cooper Cup is Keenan Allen next 1627 01:41:23,160 --> 01:41:26,480 year and and and I think that Keenan's season this season is 1628 01:41:26,480 --> 01:41:30,280 like a great yeah region of like and it can still hit. 1629 01:41:30,440 --> 01:41:32,880 It's not that you're never allowed to draft Cooper Cup 1630 01:41:32,880 --> 01:41:34,720 again. It's just like pretend at the 1631 01:41:34,720 --> 01:41:37,560 start of this year Keenan Allen was going in the early to mid 1632 01:41:37,560 --> 01:41:41,000 second like you would have been you would have been all the way 1633 01:41:41,000 --> 01:41:42,560 out. I'm gonna wait for him to fall. 1634 01:41:42,560 --> 01:41:44,760 Or if he doesn't fall underweight, right? 1635 01:41:45,160 --> 01:41:46,560 Yeah. You just never would have taken 1636 01:41:46,560 --> 01:41:49,600 him and you would have been right, like the specific outcome 1637 01:41:49,600 --> 01:41:51,440 be damned. Like you would have been right 1638 01:41:51,440 --> 01:41:53,200 based on the probability you know. 1639 01:41:54,200 --> 01:41:58,240 So it sort of begs the question though like I'm when I looked up 1640 01:41:58,240 --> 01:42:01,600 at when I looked up Cooper Cooks age to see that next year is 1641 01:42:01,600 --> 01:42:06,120 sort of his 31 year old season and the players that the players 1642 01:42:06,120 --> 01:42:09,840 at Google also true out of me as sort of like similar age. 1643 01:42:09,840 --> 01:42:13,240 Devante Adams is older. Stephon Diggs is older. 1644 01:42:14,360 --> 01:42:19,960 Like are we are we, should we be pricing in age risk, heightened 1645 01:42:19,960 --> 01:42:21,520 age risk with those guys as well. 1646 01:42:22,040 --> 01:42:28,160 I I think that's AI think that's a very important point and I I 1647 01:42:28,160 --> 01:42:31,800 actually was doing a little exercise of who were the top 1648 01:42:31,800 --> 01:42:36,320 five drafted wide receivers going to be next season. 1649 01:42:36,720 --> 01:42:40,560 And so let me let me give you the five that I kind of got to 1650 01:42:40,560 --> 01:42:43,720 who I think the market is gonna take as the first five receivers 1651 01:42:43,720 --> 01:42:46,840 off the board next year. And then you you let me know if 1652 01:42:46,840 --> 01:42:50,440 there's any that you think the market's gonna do and we can go 1653 01:42:50,440 --> 01:42:53,080 from there. So I think next season we're 1654 01:42:53,080 --> 01:42:57,240 still gonna see Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase squarely in the 1655 01:42:57,240 --> 01:43:00,440 top five, right. Their young, elite talents just 1656 01:43:00,440 --> 01:43:03,360 had some run bad with injury and quarterback injury this season. 1657 01:43:04,760 --> 01:43:06,760 I don't. I think even though Tyreek Hill 1658 01:43:06,760 --> 01:43:09,880 is going to be older next season, it's going to be 1659 01:43:09,880 --> 01:43:11,640 unavoidable. Like after what he. 1660 01:43:11,880 --> 01:43:14,040 Just has to be true. He just has to be. 1661 01:43:14,040 --> 01:43:16,400 Yep. And then I think that you get, 1662 01:43:16,640 --> 01:43:19,320 you know, the the young ascending alpha. 1663 01:43:19,600 --> 01:43:22,200 You know, CD Lamb is the new Cooper Cup. 1664 01:43:22,240 --> 01:43:25,920 This, the power slot, that Cooper Cup, that role that 1665 01:43:25,920 --> 01:43:29,680 dominated the NFL and you know, was able to accrue so many 1666 01:43:29,680 --> 01:43:32,520 receptions and yards. Like that's what CD Lamb is 1667 01:43:32,520 --> 01:43:34,520 playing in the Cowboys offense right now. 1668 01:43:35,240 --> 01:43:37,880 And so I certainly think he goes in the top five, especially with 1669 01:43:38,200 --> 01:43:39,960 the end of this season he's having. 1670 01:43:40,320 --> 01:43:42,800 And I think that A.J. Brown has done it for enough 1671 01:43:42,800 --> 01:43:45,440 seasons now. We're just like, OK, we AJ 1672 01:43:45,440 --> 01:43:50,600 Brown's in the top five forever, you know until he gets old 1673 01:43:50,600 --> 01:43:53,040 enough that he has his first like fall off season. 1674 01:43:53,040 --> 01:43:54,720 But I think he's gonna be a staple. 1675 01:43:55,000 --> 01:43:57,480 Do you think those top five are are pretty reasonable though, 1676 01:43:57,480 --> 01:44:00,560 for what the market does at the start of next basketball season? 1677 01:44:01,120 --> 01:44:05,240 So I actually did a similar exercise with what's his name 1678 01:44:05,280 --> 01:44:09,280 with on the fantasy football report that rotaviz do I think 1679 01:44:09,280 --> 01:44:10,920 you were on that show a couple weeks ago. 1680 01:44:10,920 --> 01:44:15,400 I was. I was this Sunday evening and I 1681 01:44:15,400 --> 01:44:17,760 had it. I I had four or the five the 1682 01:44:17,760 --> 01:44:21,000 same. Where I was different was I had 1683 01:44:21,040 --> 01:44:24,600 an Aman Raw as 5 instead of A.J. Brown. 1684 01:44:25,920 --> 01:44:28,480 I think that's really reasonable my. 1685 01:44:28,560 --> 01:44:30,760 Yeah, I was about to say. I think yours is reasonable too. 1686 01:44:31,360 --> 01:44:34,720 My reason, and I had I had thought about having Aman Rai in 1687 01:44:34,720 --> 01:44:36,560 there. My reason for not having him in 1688 01:44:36,560 --> 01:44:41,760 there is because I'm pretty certain that we're gonna get a 1689 01:44:41,760 --> 01:44:46,040 Jamison Williams explosion here to finish the season and go into 1690 01:44:46,040 --> 01:44:48,720 the playoffs. And I think that what we're 1691 01:44:48,720 --> 01:44:52,080 going to have next season is that the market realizes that 1692 01:44:52,680 --> 01:44:57,200 there's ambiguity as to who the best wide receiver is on the 1693 01:44:57,200 --> 01:44:59,920 Lions. Not, I think Aman RA will still 1694 01:45:00,000 --> 01:45:05,200 very likely be the best fantasy wide receiver for that team, but 1695 01:45:05,200 --> 01:45:08,960 I think the best NFL wide receiver on that team is 1696 01:45:08,960 --> 01:45:13,800 probably Jameson Williams. And so I think that that level 1697 01:45:13,800 --> 01:45:17,640 of ambiguity is going to make Amman raw a little bit cheaper 1698 01:45:18,360 --> 01:45:21,200 according to the market, which might might mean that that's 1699 01:45:21,240 --> 01:45:24,360 it's finally a year where I can have more Amman Raw cause I've 1700 01:45:24,360 --> 01:45:26,360 been kind of perpetually A fader at his. 1701 01:45:26,600 --> 01:45:33,600 Point and I I guess my my my argument for having him there 1702 01:45:33,600 --> 01:45:35,440 is, 'cause he is, he is still young. 1703 01:45:35,440 --> 01:45:39,720 He is still like ascending and like insanely good like. 1704 01:45:40,000 --> 01:45:43,360 I I think that that's like. Hey, yeah, to me it's 1705 01:45:43,360 --> 01:45:50,800 unavoidable that Amirah is is like an elite receiver and so I 1706 01:45:51,120 --> 01:45:55,480 guess my my counter would be that if if like Jameson Williams 1707 01:45:55,480 --> 01:45:59,320 also is an elite receiver, then to me that's just like sort of 1708 01:45:59,320 --> 01:46:04,920 wheels up for that offense and and and and. 1709 01:46:05,880 --> 01:46:08,440 Might be more good for the both of them rather than like a 1710 01:46:08,440 --> 01:46:11,760 negative for Eater, you'd you'd view it more as like a kind of 1711 01:46:11,760 --> 01:46:15,760 Miami situation where we had Tyreek Waddle going 1-2 in in 1712 01:46:15,760 --> 01:46:18,160 the first and second round, you know? 1713 01:46:18,320 --> 01:46:21,920 In in in that scenario I I I mean I think we have to see the 1714 01:46:21,920 --> 01:46:27,720 Jameson Williams like nuclear and stretch to the I I still 1715 01:46:27,720 --> 01:46:30,720 have to see it to believe it and I I agree with you that he's 1716 01:46:30,720 --> 01:46:34,400 really good. And but that that's how I think, 1717 01:46:34,400 --> 01:46:39,560 well that's what I think would be like efficient and it it's 1718 01:46:39,800 --> 01:46:42,840 it's easier for me to predict what I think is efficient than 1719 01:46:42,840 --> 01:46:45,480 like exactly how other people react. 1720 01:46:45,480 --> 01:46:46,960 That's always what I struggle with. 1721 01:46:47,640 --> 01:46:50,160 Yeah, absolutely. And so I I think then we can 1722 01:46:50,160 --> 01:46:53,320 pretty squarely agree then on our top six, you know we just 1723 01:46:53,320 --> 01:46:57,040 got A.J., Brown and Monroe flip flop slight differences and then 1724 01:46:57,080 --> 01:46:59,120 I. Think I'd have CD Lamb number 1725 01:46:59,120 --> 01:47:00,840 six just 'cause you're a Cowboys fan. 1726 01:47:00,840 --> 01:47:10,280 But guys that I liked as as dark horses to upset the order of the 1727 01:47:10,280 --> 01:47:13,800 market, guys that that would be drafted outside that top five or 1728 01:47:13,800 --> 01:47:18,160 six now but that would would actually crack into it with 1729 01:47:18,160 --> 01:47:23,560 their performance next year. And so I I've my my favorite one 1730 01:47:23,560 --> 01:47:26,440 I've I've mentioned on this show before but is Garrett Wilson. 1731 01:47:27,080 --> 01:47:30,240 I just need any kind of quarterback play and I think 1732 01:47:30,240 --> 01:47:35,040 that guy's like like I I think top six is like very, very 1733 01:47:35,040 --> 01:47:37,200 reasonable. I think like top three is 1734 01:47:37,200 --> 01:47:39,280 squarely in the range of outcomes for him. 1735 01:47:39,280 --> 01:47:43,280 Do you have anyone else that you think might be able to crack 1736 01:47:43,280 --> 01:47:46,840 into that elite five or six wide receivers? 1737 01:47:49,520 --> 01:47:56,560 No, I don't like I I I think that Tank Dale is like sort of 1738 01:47:56,560 --> 01:48:00,080 like a is. I don't think he's a first run 1739 01:48:00,080 --> 01:48:03,240 receiver next year, but I think he's like sort of a a dark horse 1740 01:48:03,240 --> 01:48:06,760 where if he keeps playing the way he's playing that he's gonna 1741 01:48:06,760 --> 01:48:09,000 go really high next year. Really high. 1742 01:48:10,600 --> 01:48:12,320 Yeah. I think, I think the market's 1743 01:48:12,320 --> 01:48:15,680 gonna be real excited about Tank Dell and right, rightfully so, 1744 01:48:16,080 --> 01:48:19,880 guys, right. So yeah, I think that's a good 1745 01:48:19,880 --> 01:48:22,720 call out. The other one I have is is Chris 1746 01:48:22,720 --> 01:48:25,160 Olave. Yeah, I I was just about to 1747 01:48:25,160 --> 01:48:26,440 mention him too. Go ahead. 1748 01:48:27,320 --> 01:48:30,640 I just I think he's run a little bad this season is all like the 1749 01:48:30,680 --> 01:48:32,800 the peripherals are still there like look at his weighted 1750 01:48:32,800 --> 01:48:36,400 targets per route. You know like the guy like he 1751 01:48:36,400 --> 01:48:39,400 he's had balls bounce off his helmets he got a unlucky 1752 01:48:39,400 --> 01:48:45,280 concussion this last game. Like I don't know man I you you 1753 01:48:45,280 --> 01:48:48,440 probably get Derek Carr there one more year maybe. 1754 01:48:48,440 --> 01:48:51,880 I I mean like it's not like we haven't seen Derek Carr support 1755 01:48:52,560 --> 01:48:55,720 you know elite receivers before. Like look at what he did with 1756 01:48:55,760 --> 01:48:59,000 Devonta Adams last year. You know look at look at what 1757 01:48:59,280 --> 01:49:02,880 you know he did with Amari Cooper early in his career and 1758 01:49:02,880 --> 01:49:05,840 Michael Crabtree. Like I don't think it's 1759 01:49:05,840 --> 01:49:09,520 unreasonable to say that the talent level of Chris Olave is 1760 01:49:09,520 --> 01:49:13,480 good enough that Derek Carr could get it together with him. 1761 01:49:13,480 --> 01:49:16,440 So that's another one and I I think that's one that I'm 1762 01:49:16,440 --> 01:49:19,200 actually him and Garrett Wilson. I mean, I think Garrett Wilson, 1763 01:49:19,200 --> 01:49:22,920 the market probably gets Privy to, you know, like, oh, he got a 1764 01:49:22,920 --> 01:49:23,920 new quarterback. It's fine. 1765 01:49:24,280 --> 01:49:28,760 But Chris Alabi's the one where it's gonna the situation's gonna 1766 01:49:28,760 --> 01:49:32,240 look mostly unchanged. And so I think people are gonna 1767 01:49:32,240 --> 01:49:36,840 be more anchored to the specific result we got this season where 1768 01:49:36,840 --> 01:49:41,040 the actual fantasy production has just been all right. 1769 01:49:41,040 --> 01:49:43,600 It hasn't been, you know, the huge breakout that people were 1770 01:49:43,600 --> 01:49:47,600 hoping for. And I wasn't hurt if he didn't 1771 01:49:47,600 --> 01:49:50,640 get the concussion last week. He would have like went 1772 01:49:50,680 --> 01:49:54,880 absolutely nuclear, like 200. He was easy, right? 1773 01:49:55,200 --> 01:49:59,080 He he only had a 55% root share because of the concussion, but 1774 01:49:59,080 --> 01:50:01,840 he still had 7 catches for 114 yards. 1775 01:50:02,000 --> 01:50:03,880 Yeah, dude, dude was going for 200. 1776 01:50:03,880 --> 01:50:06,600 He was absolutely cooking him. Yeah. 1777 01:50:06,840 --> 01:50:11,760 And so I think we were getting that positive regression there 1778 01:50:11,960 --> 01:50:14,080 and just quit short unfortunately. 1779 01:50:14,520 --> 01:50:17,760 I mean it could could be fortunate for for future 1780 01:50:18,200 --> 01:50:21,840 basketball shares so I'm I'm keeping my fingers and toes 1781 01:50:21,840 --> 01:50:25,480 crossed that the market let's Chris Olave slide a little bit 1782 01:50:26,080 --> 01:50:29,600 to start next season so. And then the other question I I 1783 01:50:29,600 --> 01:50:34,160 know we we sort of touched on Keenan Allen already well where 1784 01:50:34,200 --> 01:50:38,000 where do you think he goes next year like after a stellar season 1785 01:50:38,000 --> 01:50:43,800 but he's another year older. I I think so much of this season 1786 01:50:43,840 --> 01:50:47,640 and the specific outcome for Keenan Allen it is like the 1787 01:50:47,640 --> 01:50:51,280 story of his whole career right when when you get the Keenan 1788 01:50:51,280 --> 01:50:54,960 Allen huge games historically has been like oh, Mike Williams 1789 01:50:54,960 --> 01:50:58,520 was hurt or oh, Austin Eckler was hurt and it's it's just that 1790 01:50:58,520 --> 01:51:02,320 they don't have another option and and like the the most recent 1791 01:51:02,320 --> 01:51:06,120 Chargers game we saw like illustrated why it's happening 1792 01:51:06,120 --> 01:51:08,520 the way that it's happening because they literally can't. 1793 01:51:08,600 --> 01:51:13,000 Like the offense won't move if they don't throw to Keenan. 1794 01:51:13,000 --> 01:51:17,000 So they either lose the game in extremely embarrassing fashion 1795 01:51:17,040 --> 01:51:20,000 where they just put up like under 100 total yards of offense 1796 01:51:20,000 --> 01:51:23,320 and they just didn't throw to Keenan enough, or they lose the 1797 01:51:23,320 --> 01:51:27,640 game in like more respectable fashion and Keenan gets like 20 1798 01:51:27,640 --> 01:51:31,240 targets or something absurd. So I think because you're 1799 01:51:31,240 --> 01:51:34,560 basically looking for the Chargers either to remain so 1800 01:51:34,560 --> 01:51:38,320 wholly incompetent as an organization where they don't do 1801 01:51:38,320 --> 01:51:42,760 something to rectify their lack of weapons that are functional 1802 01:51:42,760 --> 01:51:46,720 on the offense next season. Like if they continue and you 1803 01:51:46,760 --> 01:51:52,560 know Keenan's the only man in town, then yeah, Keenan probably 1804 01:51:52,560 --> 01:51:56,480 deserves like a 2-3 turn price tag where you've got the Aegis 1805 01:51:56,480 --> 01:51:59,640 baked in there a little bit. So he's not going with the elite 1806 01:51:59,640 --> 01:52:05,960 guys, but and if they add, you know, Mike Williams is healthy 1807 01:52:05,960 --> 01:52:09,960 and they shoot Quinton Johnston to the moon and like get a 1808 01:52:09,960 --> 01:52:15,440 different receiver in there and leave him in in orbit, then 1809 01:52:15,440 --> 01:52:19,520 maybe Keenan's in like the solid be in the fourth round, like 1810 01:52:19,520 --> 01:52:22,120 beginning, beginning of the 4th. Does that seem reasonable to 1811 01:52:22,120 --> 01:52:23,920 you? I'm just off and on. 1812 01:52:23,920 --> 01:52:27,080 Like if the Chargers don't get a receiver who can catch, they 1813 01:52:27,080 --> 01:52:33,240 send it back. And so you you have met the the 1814 01:52:33,240 --> 01:52:38,320 2-3 turn is that 2-3 turn with no changes to the offense, but 1815 01:52:38,440 --> 01:52:42,840 like beginning of the 4th, if they get Mike Williams back or 1816 01:52:42,840 --> 01:52:45,480 some other some other target there that's competent. 1817 01:52:46,040 --> 01:52:51,400 So he's Kenan Allen. He's second in the league in 1818 01:52:51,400 --> 01:52:59,400 receiving points both total and per game in in in PPR points and 1819 01:52:59,640 --> 01:53:03,680 for among receivers. So like it's like that feels 1820 01:53:03,680 --> 01:53:08,280 fair. Like it's obviously he is a year 1821 01:53:08,280 --> 01:53:12,200 older but when he's played so well and and and and scores so 1822 01:53:12,200 --> 01:53:16,520 many points. It's like how how much, how, how 1823 01:53:16,560 --> 01:53:18,400 late can you get that sort of production? 1824 01:53:19,120 --> 01:53:21,080 Yeah, that's that's why I like it. 1825 01:53:21,080 --> 01:53:23,440 It feels a little weird to be like, oh, he's just gonna be 1826 01:53:23,440 --> 01:53:26,240 beginning of the 4th, even if they get Mike Williams back and 1827 01:53:26,240 --> 01:53:29,040 things look like a more normally distributed offense. 1828 01:53:29,040 --> 01:53:33,680 But it's like just knowing that ceiling is there in that player. 1829 01:53:33,680 --> 01:53:35,760 And sure, you increase the risk level a little bit. 1830 01:53:35,760 --> 01:53:40,520 But like, need I remind you we drafted Jerry fucking Judy at at 1831 01:53:40,520 --> 01:53:41,720 the beginning of the fourth round. 1832 01:53:41,720 --> 01:53:45,800 Like if you're telling me that Keenan doesn't belong in the 1833 01:53:45,800 --> 01:53:49,000 beginning of the fourth round, but we're taking guys like Jerry 1834 01:53:49,000 --> 01:53:54,000 Judy in the beginning of the 4th and Christian Watson like, no 1835 01:53:54,000 --> 01:53:57,320 thanks, like I'll. I mean, beginning of the fourth 1836 01:53:57,320 --> 01:54:00,720 I think is the latest. You're gonna get Keenan that 1837 01:54:00,720 --> 01:54:04,320 one, yeah. I think that's that's the floor 1838 01:54:04,320 --> 01:54:09,440 on this price and and and I I I'm agreeing with you that it's 1839 01:54:09,440 --> 01:54:14,120 somewhere between. Beginning in the 4th and end of 1840 01:54:14,120 --> 01:54:16,760 the second, I I think I think that's right. 1841 01:54:16,760 --> 01:54:19,960 I think mid turd is like it's pretty appropriate. 1842 01:54:20,800 --> 01:54:24,120 Yeah. I I just hope that some chuckle 1843 01:54:24,120 --> 01:54:28,560 fuck again spreads the rumor that Keenan is a cut candidate. 1844 01:54:28,760 --> 01:54:32,000 Whoever. By the way, if whoever was the, 1845 01:54:32,200 --> 01:54:38,400 you know, patient zero for that rumor, like, holy shit, I mean, 1846 01:54:38,400 --> 01:54:40,120 like if you actually believe you, Sir. 1847 01:54:40,360 --> 01:54:42,320 Yeah, if you believed what you were selling. 1848 01:54:43,480 --> 01:54:45,840 Oh my God, Like, I I don't even know. 1849 01:54:45,840 --> 01:54:48,600 I don't have polite words to say to you if you actually believe 1850 01:54:48,600 --> 01:54:51,280 what you're selling, but if you were just doing it to tank the 1851 01:54:51,280 --> 01:54:53,720 Keenan price, like, God bless you, 'cause I got a bunch of 1852 01:54:53,720 --> 01:54:56,040 like 5th and 6th round Keenan off of that. 1853 01:54:56,040 --> 01:55:01,880 But man what a hilarious like just absolute non ball knowing 1854 01:55:01,880 --> 01:55:04,880 level take like I think the Chargers are gonna cut their 1855 01:55:04,880 --> 01:55:08,000 very best player. Should get the fuck out of here. 1856 01:55:08,000 --> 01:55:10,240 What are you talking about? Sorry that one. 1857 01:55:10,240 --> 01:55:13,480 Just when I saw that one tilting, that one tilted me. 1858 01:55:14,640 --> 01:55:16,960 OK. So I feel, I feel like we've 1859 01:55:17,040 --> 01:55:23,480 sort of covered everything to cover in this chart and on you. 1860 01:55:23,600 --> 01:55:25,840 You're happy with me to move on? Yeah, yeah, let's hit the next 1861 01:55:25,840 --> 01:55:27,160 one. There's a couple guys here that 1862 01:55:27,160 --> 01:55:31,360 I had. OK, so it's the same chart 1863 01:55:31,360 --> 01:55:36,200 except we've got the guys who are in between 70 to 85 1864 01:55:36,480 --> 01:55:39,040 color-coded tree and different ways. 1865 01:55:39,080 --> 01:55:42,800 Same chart though. And as you as we sort of note 1866 01:55:42,800 --> 01:55:46,920 every week and Tyree Kill sort of messes with the the scaling 1867 01:55:47,440 --> 01:55:49,840 both on the vertical and the horizontal axis. 1868 01:55:51,920 --> 01:55:54,560 Yeah, Tyreek is is something else, man. 1869 01:55:55,600 --> 01:55:58,400 I don't know if you've started watching the in season Hard 1870 01:55:58,400 --> 01:56:01,880 Knocks for the Dolphins, but I. I haven't. 1871 01:56:02,760 --> 01:56:04,840 It's a shame. He's yeah. 1872 01:56:04,840 --> 01:56:08,920 Tyree Kill is I mean they're they're doing a lot to try and 1873 01:56:09,520 --> 01:56:12,240 fix fix his image do a little little PR. 1874 01:56:12,920 --> 01:56:16,680 But he I I still think he's probably an awful person. 1875 01:56:16,680 --> 01:56:18,200 I don't know. I don't actually know the man. 1876 01:56:18,200 --> 01:56:22,360 But I, I, you know, do know what I've heard about how he treats 1877 01:56:22,360 --> 01:56:26,600 women and children in his life. But man, he's totally 1878 01:56:26,600 --> 01:56:28,720 differently built than other people. 1879 01:56:28,720 --> 01:56:33,080 He's so, so ridiculous. Yeah, I mean, you can't can't 1880 01:56:33,080 --> 01:56:36,000 say anything else about him. There's there's nothing else 1881 01:56:36,000 --> 01:56:37,640 worth saying. Like the dude is is, like 1882 01:56:37,640 --> 01:56:40,600 clearly the best receiver in the league at this point. 1883 01:56:40,960 --> 01:56:43,600 Right. It it is pretty insane how fast 1884 01:56:43,600 --> 01:56:46,480 he is and and and and strong for his size. 1885 01:56:46,720 --> 01:56:51,360 Yeah, Yeah. So I I thought that this was a 1886 01:56:51,360 --> 01:56:56,960 really interesting you know I came upon a a fork in the road 1887 01:56:57,640 --> 01:57:01,600 here with Nico Collins Tank Dell I I just botched that attempt at 1888 01:57:01,600 --> 01:57:06,000 poetry by the way but but we've got the Nico Collins Tank Dell 1889 01:57:06,000 --> 01:57:09,840 like both very similar in weighted targets per route run 1890 01:57:09,840 --> 01:57:16,240 both very similar in fantasy points per game and I'm I'm 1891 01:57:16,240 --> 01:57:19,200 truly not sure where I fall on this. 1892 01:57:19,200 --> 01:57:22,920 I know that the sentiment and that lots of the advanced 1893 01:57:22,920 --> 01:57:28,360 metrics would point to Tank Dell as being the if you had to pick 1894 01:57:28,360 --> 01:57:33,560 just one Tank Dell. Do you think that's, is that 1895 01:57:33,560 --> 01:57:35,960 correct? Are they are they closer than 1896 01:57:35,960 --> 01:57:39,200 the market thinks are are they truly like as identical as they 1897 01:57:39,200 --> 01:57:41,400 look on this chart? How do you parse Tank Dell 1898 01:57:41,400 --> 01:57:43,880 versus Nico Collins? And. 1899 01:57:45,440 --> 01:57:51,960 I get I guess again to go back to sort of like the sort of 1900 01:57:52,720 --> 01:57:58,840 Longview stuff and I think Tank Dell was was even even though 1901 01:57:58,840 --> 01:58:02,440 the size and and and the testing stuff doesn't go in his favor. 1902 01:58:02,800 --> 01:58:06,880 I think he was a pretty he was a pretty good productive college 1903 01:58:06,880 --> 01:58:09,880 player. I need to refresh my memory a 1904 01:58:09,880 --> 01:58:14,400 little bit and. Whereas I know that Nico Collins 1905 01:58:14,400 --> 01:58:17,360 was a bit more of a like, he had a little bit more struggle in in 1906 01:58:17,360 --> 01:58:19,520 college when it came to production. 1907 01:58:20,120 --> 01:58:24,440 And so to me with them both being young that's sort of like 1908 01:58:24,440 --> 01:58:31,560 something along the lines of where I I lean on and but it's 1909 01:58:31,560 --> 01:58:39,120 still it's still like ambiguous enough where we don't you can't 1910 01:58:39,120 --> 01:58:45,200 have true confidence in it and. I'm sort of like I I want to 1911 01:58:45,200 --> 01:58:50,800 vote I guess at this point and I I think I, I, I sort of lean 1912 01:58:50,800 --> 01:58:56,000 tank over Nico. But it's like does that mean 1913 01:58:56,000 --> 01:59:00,680 that I I think tank should be in the 2nd and then Nico is like in 1914 01:59:00,680 --> 01:59:05,200 the seventh or something like or or or like in the 5th or or 1915 01:59:05,200 --> 01:59:08,240 something like that. I I don't know if we've seen 1916 01:59:08,240 --> 01:59:11,720 enough to like say that definitively and. 1917 01:59:12,880 --> 01:59:15,600 I guess might to to be a bit wishy washy. 1918 01:59:15,600 --> 01:59:24,000 I I want to boat and slight lean towards tank regardless of cost. 1919 01:59:24,480 --> 01:59:29,560 But then with the knowledge that Nico will likely be a good bit 1920 01:59:29,560 --> 01:59:34,000 cheaper he should obviously be like a a pretty important part. 1921 01:59:34,000 --> 01:59:37,280 I think he he he should be a pretty good target, too. 1922 01:59:38,400 --> 01:59:41,000 Yeah. You ready for me to fuck up the 1923 01:59:41,080 --> 01:59:44,760 market next year for Texans? OK, go ahead. 1924 01:59:45,280 --> 01:59:48,760 All right. I don't think there's any 1925 01:59:48,760 --> 01:59:54,120 difference as far as quarterback play for the Cincinnati Bengals 1926 01:59:54,120 --> 01:59:58,920 and the Houston Texans. I think that the number one wide 1927 01:59:58,920 --> 02:00:02,840 receiver on the Bengals is the best of the four wide receivers. 1928 02:00:03,400 --> 02:00:06,520 But I don't think T Higgins is very different than Nico Collins 1929 02:00:06,560 --> 02:00:10,080 and we we obviously both agree that Tank Dell is very good. 1930 02:00:10,680 --> 02:00:13,960 So I don't see any reason that CJ Stroud should really like 1931 02:00:13,960 --> 02:00:17,440 leave the fifth round. You know Burrow Burrow was 1932 02:00:17,440 --> 02:00:22,360 pretty strongly a staple of like the 4-5 turn when ADP settled 1933 02:00:23,000 --> 02:00:26,480 and you know Justin Fields of course you get like the elite 1934 02:00:26,480 --> 02:00:31,200 rushing upside was you know in the that 4th, 5th area and then 1935 02:00:31,200 --> 02:00:34,200 you got Trevor Lawrence in the 6th, which I I never agreed with 1936 02:00:34,200 --> 02:00:35,720 that price that was just silliness. 1937 02:00:35,720 --> 02:00:39,840 But I I kind of feel like CJ Stroud like the buck should stop 1938 02:00:39,840 --> 02:00:44,320 at the end of the fifth round. And then I I think that likely 1939 02:00:44,320 --> 02:00:48,640 with some you know correlation driving the market there a 1940 02:00:48,640 --> 02:00:53,000 little bit, you're going to get like a tank Dell probably 223 1941 02:00:53,000 --> 02:00:56,400 turn and then you'll likely have like a Nico Collins. 1942 02:00:57,160 --> 02:01:00,280 Basically I bet you end up with Stroud settling at like the 1943 02:01:00,280 --> 02:01:03,400 five, six turn. And I bet you end up with Nico 1944 02:01:03,400 --> 02:01:07,160 Collins, just like Anchored just like attached at the hip to 1945 02:01:07,160 --> 02:01:09,320 Stroud. His people try and get that 1946 02:01:09,320 --> 02:01:12,760 stack and so that's there you go all all three of them. 1947 02:01:12,760 --> 02:01:14,200 I. I think we're pretty close there 1948 02:01:14,200 --> 02:01:17,680 like I, I, I, I, I sort of settled a fifth round for Nico 1949 02:01:18,400 --> 02:01:24,640 and and and so but you said that you you think that people should 1950 02:01:24,640 --> 02:01:30,000 be seeing T Higgins and Nico. Exact same pretty pretty pretty 1951 02:01:30,000 --> 02:01:36,440 close yeah. And I get I have AI have hard 1952 02:01:36,440 --> 02:01:41,920 time with that but I don't I don't know if that's just me 1953 02:01:41,920 --> 02:01:45,880 anchoring to like a prior view as of of T Higgins. 1954 02:01:45,880 --> 02:01:48,960 Like I, I, I sort of see like T Higgins as like just the small 1955 02:01:48,960 --> 02:01:51,880 steps down from like an NFL superstar. 1956 02:01:52,520 --> 02:01:55,840 And like, not a superstar, but like. 1957 02:01:57,240 --> 02:02:01,520 An exceptionally good player and I'm having a hard time getting 1958 02:02:01,520 --> 02:02:07,200 there with Nico. And can you and and maybe if 1959 02:02:07,320 --> 02:02:10,600 maybe I'm the only one who's having a hard time, but maybe 1960 02:02:10,600 --> 02:02:13,240 maybe there are others. It sounds like the market is 1961 02:02:13,240 --> 02:02:16,480 having a hard time there too. Can you sort of like, help me 1962 02:02:16,480 --> 02:02:21,760 understand then why Nico sort of belongs up there? 1963 02:02:22,600 --> 02:02:27,080 Yeah, I mean, I don't. So #1 Nico has we. 1964 02:02:27,080 --> 02:02:30,880 We've kind of perpetually been on the oh gosh, if Nico just 1965 02:02:30,880 --> 02:02:33,800 gets a quarterback. Oh, you know, like, the market's 1966 02:02:33,800 --> 02:02:38,360 been excited about Nico as a prospect since he came into the 1967 02:02:38,360 --> 02:02:42,960 league, and now he finally has a quarterback and he's immediately 1968 02:02:42,960 --> 02:02:45,800 elevated. And just as a comparison, like 1969 02:02:46,560 --> 02:02:51,200 if if you didn't know who Nico Collins and T Higgins were and 1970 02:02:51,200 --> 02:02:54,680 you just ran into them both on the street, they're pretty 1971 02:02:54,680 --> 02:02:55,840 identical. Humans. 1972 02:02:55,960 --> 02:03:00,760 Nico is 6 foot four, 215 lbs with a 34 inch arm length. 1973 02:03:01,040 --> 02:03:05,040 T Higgins is 6 foot four 216 lbs with a 34 foot arm length. 1974 02:03:05,680 --> 02:03:09,200 They're the same age. T Higgins is a lot slower. 1975 02:03:11,120 --> 02:03:14,120 He he runs A46, Nico Collins runs a 4-5. 1976 02:03:15,160 --> 02:03:19,520 Nico has much better burst. T Higgins is 16th percentile 1977 02:03:19,520 --> 02:03:21,720 burst. Nico Collins is 76th percentile 1978 02:03:21,720 --> 02:03:26,360 burst and so I mean really the you want to know what the big 1979 02:03:26,360 --> 02:03:29,680 difference is is that T Higgins went to Clemson and so that was 1980 02:03:29,680 --> 02:03:31,800 like and Nico calls went to Michigan. 1981 02:03:31,800 --> 02:03:34,920 Not that Michigan's like a a small school by any means, but 1982 02:03:34,920 --> 02:03:39,400 like you know the the big Clemson brand of T Higgins is is 1983 02:03:39,400 --> 02:03:42,240 strong. And you know, he had, he was 1984 02:03:42,240 --> 02:03:45,160 attached to Joe Burrow and he was there before Jamar Chase got 1985 02:03:45,160 --> 02:03:47,520 there. And so we have all of this 1986 02:03:47,920 --> 02:03:51,960 anchoring from, you know, previous production from T in 1987 02:03:51,960 --> 02:03:55,760 the NFL and this is really the first opportunity we've got from 1988 02:03:55,760 --> 02:04:00,400 Nico to produce with a real quarterback of the NFLI think 1989 02:04:00,400 --> 02:04:03,560 they're the same player. I think it's basically the same 1990 02:04:03,560 --> 02:04:08,920 player and so and I. Guess my my pushback would be so 1991 02:04:08,920 --> 02:04:13,400 Nico Collins, he did go to, he did go to Michigan and and that 1992 02:04:13,400 --> 02:04:18,600 did sort of dampen down some of his receive his his overall 1993 02:04:18,600 --> 02:04:21,960 production. But then he only I get he only 1994 02:04:21,960 --> 02:04:26,800 had like is is in 2018 it was 23% and market share of 1995 02:04:26,800 --> 02:04:32,880 receiving yards in his last year was 24% and then it was it was a 1996 02:04:32,880 --> 02:04:34,480 little higher with the touchdown stuff. 1997 02:04:34,480 --> 02:04:38,920 So I guess he ended up with his last year 28% dominator rating 1998 02:04:39,560 --> 02:04:46,720 and where's you look at? T Higgins 16% I'm just 1999 02:04:46,720 --> 02:04:49,480 abbreviating and I know it's just combination. 2000 02:04:49,560 --> 02:04:55,400 Once that 27% dominator in his an 1830% dominator. 2001 02:04:55,400 --> 02:05:01,200 So even though he went to like a better school or a more like a 2002 02:05:01,200 --> 02:05:05,280 more name brand school, he did have like the better market 2003 02:05:05,280 --> 02:05:08,320 share numbers. Like his his his production 2004 02:05:08,320 --> 02:05:12,600 profile was much better. Yeah, it it it was better. 2005 02:05:12,760 --> 02:05:15,120 It's certain like I you certainly couldn't win an 2006 02:05:15,120 --> 02:05:17,800 argument saying that Nico Collins college production was 2007 02:05:17,800 --> 02:05:19,720 better than T Higgins College production, right. 2008 02:05:20,040 --> 02:05:26,480 But I I just think the the way I'd like to play it is I bet you 2009 02:05:26,480 --> 02:05:30,080 that T Higgins is more expensive than Nico Collins this next 2010 02:05:30,080 --> 02:05:33,800 season. I don't think there's very much 2011 02:05:33,800 --> 02:05:37,160 of a difference at all in the player profiles. 2012 02:05:37,160 --> 02:05:40,640 Maybe let's just say that T Higgins is better than Nico 2013 02:05:40,640 --> 02:05:43,800 Collins, right? Like, he he he had a much better 2014 02:05:43,800 --> 02:05:46,960 college career and right, what? But what? 2015 02:05:47,040 --> 02:05:50,280 But wouldn't you say what they're gonna do or what they've 2016 02:05:50,280 --> 02:05:53,040 done in the NFL is certainly more important? 2017 02:05:53,120 --> 02:05:56,080 Than right. Yeah yeah at this stage and and 2018 02:05:56,080 --> 02:05:59,280 so at this point we get one season here with Nico where it's 2019 02:05:59,280 --> 02:06:04,280 like OK, like this could be a thing and so I'd prefer to buy 2020 02:06:04,280 --> 02:06:08,280 Nico next season. I mean it it's probably it's 2021 02:06:08,280 --> 02:06:14,360 either the Nico price I don't see being a stable price next 2022 02:06:14,360 --> 02:06:17,960 season for the rest of his career it's gonna be 1 where it 2023 02:06:17,960 --> 02:06:21,720 was either way too high. And you're right Nico Collins is 2024 02:06:21,720 --> 02:06:25,160 just like he's whatever. He's a you know functional NFL 2025 02:06:25,160 --> 02:06:28,240 receiver but not a star and Tank Del just runs away with it. 2026 02:06:28,240 --> 02:06:32,840 Tank Del just crushes right or you're gonna get like, Oh my 2027 02:06:32,840 --> 02:06:38,160 gosh, CJ Stroud is him like he's him at the Himmerson and Nico 2028 02:06:38,160 --> 02:06:40,800 Collins and Tankdale should have been first and second round 2029 02:06:40,800 --> 02:06:43,720 picks. And so the way that you're 2030 02:06:43,720 --> 02:06:48,200 rewarded in best ball with like when you're right in a in a way 2031 02:06:48,200 --> 02:06:51,760 like that where all of a sudden you get a player that's way out 2032 02:06:51,760 --> 02:06:56,960 producing their costs. Like I lose so little when Nico 2033 02:06:56,960 --> 02:07:01,480 Collins just is 1/8 round value and I took him in the 4th and I 2034 02:07:01,480 --> 02:07:05,160 gained so much when he's a second round value and I took 2035 02:07:05,160 --> 02:07:08,040 him in the fourth. I'd prefer to do it that way. 2036 02:07:08,600 --> 02:07:11,080 Yeah, yeah, yeah. I I I agree with you there. 2037 02:07:11,160 --> 02:07:15,040 I mean I I was probably getting too like anchored to like a no 2038 02:07:15,040 --> 02:07:19,040 no he's not too good split in terms of like him, him being 2039 02:07:19,040 --> 02:07:21,960 attached to an offense, a passing offense, we expect to be 2040 02:07:21,960 --> 02:07:26,320 really good still. It'll still only be AI guess a 2041 02:07:26,320 --> 02:07:27,680 fourth year player. So. 2042 02:07:28,200 --> 02:07:35,200 And still not not I guess not young not old and then potential 2043 02:07:35,200 --> 02:07:37,560 we're we're we're potentially seeing like a third year 2044 02:07:37,680 --> 02:07:42,720 breakout that there there's enough upside there that that it 2045 02:07:42,720 --> 02:07:46,120 could that it could hit. I I I think that makes sense. 2046 02:07:46,840 --> 02:07:50,440 I is this there's no way this is correct. 2047 02:07:50,440 --> 02:07:52,000 Hang on. I'm verifying A stat. 2048 02:07:52,520 --> 02:07:59,000 OK, what if I told you that Nico Collins and Tank Dell are 2049 02:07:59,320 --> 02:08:01,960 basically the same age. They're only six months apart. 2050 02:08:02,920 --> 02:08:06,360 Tank Dell is like the oldest. Tank Dell is Vayliss Jones, but 2051 02:08:06,360 --> 02:08:08,560 he's actually good. You know where Vayliss Jones is? 2052 02:08:08,560 --> 02:08:13,840 Like the oldest rookie ever? Tank Dell is super old, but he's 2053 02:08:14,000 --> 02:08:17,520 he's good. And and yeah, Phil in the chat 2054 02:08:17,520 --> 02:08:20,520 says Tank will go higher 'cause his name is cool, 100 percent, 2055 02:08:21,520 --> 02:08:25,440 100%. But yeah, then basically being 2056 02:08:25,480 --> 02:08:28,840 the the same age. But Tank Dowser, rookie, And 2057 02:08:28,840 --> 02:08:31,800 that Nico is in a turd NFL season? 2058 02:08:31,800 --> 02:08:33,880 That That's pretty nuts. Yeah. 2059 02:08:34,400 --> 02:08:36,720 Yeah. All right. 2060 02:08:36,720 --> 02:08:38,800 That was all I really had on. Yeah. 2061 02:08:39,240 --> 02:08:41,840 Chart. I mean like little little Devo 2062 02:08:41,840 --> 02:08:45,280 Samuel Spike week game Devo lives. 2063 02:08:45,280 --> 02:08:48,600 But you know, everyone, everyone knew that we, we knew that Devo 2064 02:08:48,600 --> 02:08:50,040 still had that in his bag of tricks. 2065 02:08:50,400 --> 02:08:54,120 Yeah, yeah, nothing. Nothing too deep to get into 2066 02:08:54,120 --> 02:08:59,680 here and then. I guess worth pointing out that 2067 02:09:00,520 --> 02:09:03,720 Rashi Rice, they had that there was that positive report that 2068 02:09:03,720 --> 02:09:06,480 wasn't explicitly about Rashi Rice where the chief said, Oh 2069 02:09:06,480 --> 02:09:10,520 yeah, we want to look at all of our stuff and we we we need to 2070 02:09:10,520 --> 02:09:12,440 get our young playmakers involved more. 2071 02:09:12,440 --> 02:09:16,240 We need to to like make sure that they're in the best spot 2072 02:09:16,320 --> 02:09:19,760 and then immediately Rashi Rice leads the team or leads 2073 02:09:19,760 --> 02:09:24,600 receivers in snaps and routes and rewards the Chiefs with a 2074 02:09:24,600 --> 02:09:30,280 big. With a big touchdown that helps 2075 02:09:30,280 --> 02:09:32,760 them win the game. I I think that that that's 2076 02:09:32,760 --> 02:09:37,880 pretty encouraging but that's only a little bit of new news. 2077 02:09:37,880 --> 02:09:41,920 We we've sort of been banging the drum on Rashi Rice all all 2078 02:09:41,920 --> 02:09:44,320 season. I I think. 2079 02:09:44,400 --> 02:09:48,760 I think the rice is finished cooking and for you to eat baby 2080 02:09:48,760 --> 02:09:51,400 I I. It's ready to cook to to be 2081 02:09:51,400 --> 02:09:54,720 added to the main dish is OK. OK, hang on. 2082 02:09:54,720 --> 02:10:01,040 Let me let me spin you a playoff best ball narrative here Or or 2083 02:10:01,040 --> 02:10:03,720 not. I I should say the playoffs for 2084 02:10:03,720 --> 02:10:08,320 the regular best ball season is Rashi Rice the Prince who has 2085 02:10:08,320 --> 02:10:11,840 promised instead of Sky More. You know this with all the Sky 2086 02:10:11,840 --> 02:10:14,560 more hype last season. Like we're we're tripping over 2087 02:10:14,560 --> 02:10:17,160 ourselves. But are we actually gonna get. 2088 02:10:17,360 --> 02:10:21,200 I mean, Raashi Rice is almost as cool a name as Sky. 2089 02:10:21,240 --> 02:10:24,680 I mean, I know that Sky More is the sickest name for an NFL wide 2090 02:10:24,680 --> 02:10:27,520 receiver ever, but Raashi Rice, pretty good name. 2091 02:10:27,880 --> 02:10:32,720 I mean, I don't know. I could see him smashing in in 2092 02:10:32,720 --> 02:10:35,520 the playoffs. It feels like a pretty sort of 2093 02:10:35,520 --> 02:10:41,600 like typical Prototype rookie. At receiver, where he's played 2094 02:10:41,600 --> 02:10:44,520 real well at the start of the year but doesn't get the snap 2095 02:10:44,520 --> 02:10:46,680 share. And then the last six games he 2096 02:10:46,680 --> 02:10:52,160 gets the snap shares and just like like rips, rips off insane 2097 02:10:52,160 --> 02:10:54,920 games. It definitely feels like the the 2098 02:10:54,920 --> 02:10:59,280 prototype of that, like it does. I can't think of a better set up 2099 02:10:59,280 --> 02:11:03,680 for like a a true like scorched air playoff run. 2100 02:11:04,320 --> 02:11:07,560 OK and and now with respect to playoff best ball, can I can I 2101 02:11:07,560 --> 02:11:09,480 hit you with a a verbal meme here. 2102 02:11:10,200 --> 02:11:14,840 OK, stacking this is this is the Drake Hotline Bling meme. 2103 02:11:14,840 --> 02:11:18,160 Just for reference. Stacking Pat Mahomes with Travis 2104 02:11:18,160 --> 02:11:22,600 Kelsey. Stacking Pat Mahomes with Rashi 2105 02:11:22,600 --> 02:11:27,520 Rice. So yeah, that's That's the move 2106 02:11:27,520 --> 02:11:31,320 for playoff basketball. Feels, feels pretty appropriate. 2107 02:11:32,160 --> 02:11:34,960 But yeah, definitely. I mean super, super promising 2108 02:11:34,960 --> 02:11:37,720 what we're seeing from him. And I kept saying this this 2109 02:11:37,720 --> 02:11:43,240 offseason about Raashi Rice in my, you know, super basic film 2110 02:11:43,240 --> 02:11:46,000 bro analysis and just trying to, like, get up to speed on all the 2111 02:11:46,000 --> 02:11:48,880 rookies. But watching Raashi Rice and 2112 02:11:48,880 --> 02:11:52,080 like looking at how he got his production in college, I kept 2113 02:11:52,080 --> 02:11:56,480 telling anyone who would listen to my stupid ass takes that he 2114 02:11:56,480 --> 02:12:00,280 to me looked like slow motion CD Lamb underwater. 2115 02:12:00,560 --> 02:12:03,840 And I didn't mean it, as bad as that sounds like, it sounds 2116 02:12:03,840 --> 02:12:05,240 like. I'm just saying, like this guy's 2117 02:12:05,640 --> 02:12:07,920 so painfully slow that he can't play. 2118 02:12:08,360 --> 02:12:12,840 But I I meant it as like it would be weird to be like this 2119 02:12:12,840 --> 02:12:15,240 guy's CD lamb, you know, but like. 2120 02:12:15,800 --> 02:12:20,360 He does in the context of this comes from the biggest Dallas 2121 02:12:20,520 --> 02:12:24,600 found by in the world. Yeah, this is the only. 2122 02:12:24,600 --> 02:12:27,080 Way I can comp him to a Cowboys player. 2123 02:12:27,800 --> 02:12:30,760 You need the incredible, You need the context, man. 2124 02:12:30,800 --> 02:12:34,200 So yeah, I was saying he's underwater slow motion CD Lamb. 2125 02:12:34,200 --> 02:12:36,960 But like they operate in a similar way. 2126 02:12:36,960 --> 02:12:41,440 Like I I saw him be successful on similar type of routes that 2127 02:12:41,440 --> 02:12:45,520 CD was had like good after the catch from the splash zone type 2128 02:12:45,520 --> 02:12:48,080 of plays. So that's what I always saw is 2129 02:12:48,080 --> 02:12:52,520 like and I so I I thought he could fit into the juju role. 2130 02:12:52,520 --> 02:12:55,360 When he got drafted I was like this makes all sense in the 2131 02:12:55,360 --> 02:12:57,240 world. This is like someone in the juju 2132 02:12:57,240 --> 02:13:00,440 role that's actually good at the shit they wanted juju to do. 2133 02:13:01,680 --> 02:13:03,320 And then they they haven't used them so far. 2134 02:13:03,320 --> 02:13:08,560 But now I I think we're this, this feels like probably the 2135 02:13:08,560 --> 02:13:12,600 strongest candidate for like rookie receiver that you've got 2136 02:13:12,600 --> 02:13:14,800 to have down the stretch. Is there a different, I mean, 2137 02:13:15,080 --> 02:13:17,520 Tank Dell, obviously. Is there someone else you could 2138 02:13:17,520 --> 02:13:21,600 think of that sets up to be the better playoff best ball hammer 2139 02:13:21,600 --> 02:13:24,920 than Rashi Rice? I don't think there's anyone 2140 02:13:24,920 --> 02:13:32,160 that sets up better than him. No, I I I I I don't obviously 2141 02:13:32,480 --> 02:13:35,760 tank Dell. And he he sets up pretty well 2142 02:13:35,760 --> 02:13:38,960 too. And we've talked about him quite 2143 02:13:38,960 --> 02:13:42,280 a lot, but I I don't think there's anybody even nearly 2144 02:13:42,280 --> 02:13:44,480 close. No, like not not Zay Flowers, 2145 02:13:44,480 --> 02:13:46,680 not JSN. Although you know, we, we like 2146 02:13:46,680 --> 02:13:49,640 what we've seen from both those guys, but JSN is just on a non 2147 02:13:49,640 --> 02:13:51,560 functional offense, you know, more or less. 2148 02:13:51,560 --> 02:13:55,080 I I have seen now that you mentioned JSN, I did see some 2149 02:13:55,080 --> 02:13:59,640 pretty encouraging quotes where Aunt Pete Carl also said about 2150 02:13:59,720 --> 02:14:02,520 him. And JSN and he was like, listen, 2151 02:14:02,680 --> 02:14:04,120 he, I think he's our best player. 2152 02:14:04,360 --> 02:14:07,280 We just got to get him the ball that that's like that's why our 2153 02:14:07,280 --> 02:14:09,600 offense has been bad because we haven't gotten JSN the ball 2154 02:14:09,600 --> 02:14:11,200 enough. What it seemed like he was 2155 02:14:11,200 --> 02:14:17,920 saying, which is like pretty encouraging and I I saw that 2156 02:14:17,920 --> 02:14:21,160 too. And I I do believe that Pete 2157 02:14:21,160 --> 02:14:25,440 believes that. I'm just not convinced that they 2158 02:14:25,520 --> 02:14:27,840 have the. I don't. 2159 02:14:27,840 --> 02:14:29,800 I don't know that they'll actually execute on it. 2160 02:14:29,800 --> 02:14:33,040 They might believe it, you know. That might be their plan. 2161 02:14:33,400 --> 02:14:36,040 Yeah. We wanna get JSN the ball. 2162 02:14:36,080 --> 02:14:38,960 One extra target 6, right? Yes. 2163 02:14:39,240 --> 02:14:42,880 Let's go. Historical anomalies in the chat 2164 02:14:42,880 --> 02:14:45,080 had a good call out. Addison as well. 2165 02:14:45,080 --> 02:14:47,040 Could be that good, you know? Yeah. 2166 02:14:48,200 --> 02:14:50,200 Yeah, sorry, I'm not. I'm not trying to ignore those 2167 02:14:50,200 --> 02:14:52,960 guys. No, no, the the Josh Dobbs 2168 02:14:53,080 --> 02:14:56,360 turning back into a pumpkin game was depressing. 2169 02:14:56,360 --> 02:14:58,920 I I was having so much fun rooting for Josh Dobbs. 2170 02:14:58,920 --> 02:15:02,840 I like it's not. Sorry, before we go too much 2171 02:15:02,840 --> 02:15:07,040 away from Rishi Rice, I had one little note that I had on him 2172 02:15:07,840 --> 02:15:10,360 based on your sort of slot stuff. 2173 02:15:10,960 --> 02:15:16,600 So he actually didn't put his Most of his extra snaps in Week 2174 02:15:16,600 --> 02:15:20,320 12 came from wideout. It was actually one of his 2175 02:15:20,400 --> 02:15:23,320 lowest slot snap rate of the season. 2176 02:15:24,000 --> 02:15:26,160 But. And it was as high as that wide 2177 02:15:26,160 --> 02:15:31,560 out snap rate of the year? So I mean, even he was super 2178 02:15:31,560 --> 02:15:34,760 productive with that, so hopefully the Chiefs are so. 2179 02:15:34,800 --> 02:15:37,600 To me that's like encouraging in that like they've they've like 2180 02:15:38,520 --> 02:15:41,720 their biggest like issue with him was that he that they didn't 2181 02:15:41,720 --> 02:15:45,800 see a way to use them in anything else in the slot and 2182 02:15:45,800 --> 02:15:48,920 now he's like a they can put them all over the field, Yeah 2183 02:15:49,160 --> 02:15:52,120 move, so move around. Yeah that that seems really 2184 02:15:52,120 --> 02:15:53,840 bullish. I'm you. 2185 02:15:53,840 --> 02:15:56,520 You had me on the Rashi Rice train this offseason. 2186 02:15:56,520 --> 02:16:00,760 I hadn't had a lot until you and I did our first couple drafts 2187 02:16:00,760 --> 02:16:03,240 together. And then after I had started 2188 02:16:03,240 --> 02:16:05,560 drafting with you, you did get me on to Rashi Rice. 2189 02:16:05,560 --> 02:16:08,800 So I came in underweight on him. But I do have you to thank for 2190 02:16:09,080 --> 02:16:13,640 helping me rectify that, because I I got a certain feeling that 2191 02:16:14,120 --> 02:16:15,800 we're going to want some Rashi Rice. 2192 02:16:16,320 --> 02:16:21,240 You know come week 17, I've fingers crossed, Fingers 2193 02:16:21,240 --> 02:16:26,160 crossed. Last guy on this chart, I mean, 2194 02:16:26,160 --> 02:16:28,480 I guess honorable mention Jalen Hyatt. 2195 02:16:28,480 --> 02:16:31,120 I talked about him a little bit earlier, but I don't think it's 2196 02:16:31,480 --> 02:16:33,240 very fantasy relevant for this year. 2197 02:16:33,240 --> 02:16:37,719 But future years, definitely keep an eye on on Jalen Hyatt. 2198 02:16:37,920 --> 02:16:40,760 But the guy that I really wanted to highlight here is Jayden Reed 2199 02:16:40,760 --> 02:16:43,400 who has got to be close to graduating. 2200 02:16:43,400 --> 02:16:46,360 I got, I got to think like a couple more weeks. 2201 02:16:46,360 --> 02:16:50,400 He graduates this chart and moves up to the big boys running 2202 02:16:50,400 --> 02:16:54,440 running over 70% routes because he's their best receiver. 2203 02:16:54,520 --> 02:16:57,920 Like, I know that Christian Watson had a breakout game. 2204 02:16:58,160 --> 02:17:00,559 I know that Romeo Dobbs is all right. 2205 02:17:00,799 --> 02:17:04,400 Jayden Reed's the most dynamic player on that team. 2206 02:17:04,400 --> 02:17:07,480 Like they're they're getting in the ball on and around. 2207 02:17:07,559 --> 02:17:11,240 Like he's able to get open. He can make plays in space. 2208 02:17:11,240 --> 02:17:13,920 Like he's he's able to do it all. 2209 02:17:14,240 --> 02:17:18,000 I'm a huge, huge Jayden Reed. Stan think he's. 2210 02:17:18,000 --> 02:17:20,320 I think he's hashtag good at the game. 2211 02:17:22,520 --> 02:17:27,240 So I'm looking at sort of like the last five weeks of his 2212 02:17:27,240 --> 02:17:32,879 rootshare and a A sort of all over the map like week 9 or week 2213 02:17:32,920 --> 02:17:42,200 888%, week 945%, rootshare, week 1056%, week 1177, then week 2214 02:17:42,200 --> 02:17:45,680 1279. So it's like up here, then down 2215 02:17:45,680 --> 02:17:50,000 here, then back up. And it's not just like one week 2216 02:17:50,040 --> 02:17:52,200 off stuff like it. It's sort of weird. 2217 02:17:52,879 --> 02:17:56,959 And I'm I'm I'm having a hard time interpreting the 2218 02:17:56,959 --> 02:18:01,799 interpreting that and but I agree with you that as he plays 2219 02:18:01,799 --> 02:18:06,160 better like the IT definitely puts the impetus to to push him 2220 02:18:06,160 --> 02:18:08,879 up into the higher higher root share. 2221 02:18:09,360 --> 02:18:13,160 I I think he's following you know he he's not the offense 2222 02:18:13,160 --> 02:18:17,959 isn't quite as good and you know I I don't think that he'll be 2223 02:18:17,959 --> 02:18:21,200 able to get to the level of production that we might be able 2224 02:18:21,200 --> 02:18:24,360 to see from Rashi Rice as like his ceiling to close out the 2225 02:18:24,360 --> 02:18:26,600 ceiling or close out the season rather. 2226 02:18:26,959 --> 02:18:29,400 But I do think he's really exciting. 2227 02:18:29,400 --> 02:18:34,600 I think that we're almost in the you can't put the genie back in 2228 02:18:34,600 --> 02:18:38,000 the bottle territory with Jaden Reed With respect to the Packers 2229 02:18:38,000 --> 02:18:42,920 and and their usage of him. I like I would say that let's 2230 02:18:42,920 --> 02:18:46,639 let's look next week and his usage and I think that if he's 2231 02:18:46,639 --> 02:18:51,160 above that you know 70% threshold again I think that. 2232 02:18:51,240 --> 02:18:53,600 We're done. Definite A trend established. 2233 02:18:53,799 --> 02:18:57,000 Yeah, I think we're done seeing him be in that low, you know 2234 02:18:57,000 --> 02:18:59,200 like 40 to 50% range that he has. 2235 02:18:59,360 --> 02:19:02,280 He has had that this season where he just wasn't on the 2236 02:19:02,280 --> 02:19:07,200 field a ton, But I think the team there, there was a quote 2237 02:19:07,879 --> 02:19:10,719 from Lafleur as well where he said something to the effect of 2238 02:19:10,719 --> 02:19:15,760 like that he he's got that dog. He I I swear he said. 2239 02:19:15,760 --> 02:19:18,680 He's a dog. The floor said. 2240 02:19:18,719 --> 02:19:21,480 And I quote He's got that dog in him. 2241 02:19:23,840 --> 02:19:26,639 So I'm I'm excited for Jayden Reid going forward. 2242 02:19:27,000 --> 02:19:30,959 I honestly wouldn't. It wouldn't shock me if in Week 2243 02:19:30,959 --> 02:19:34,559 17 it turns out to be Jayden Reid as the guy you need instead 2244 02:19:34,559 --> 02:19:37,160 of Rashi Rice. If if I had to bet money on it 2245 02:19:37,160 --> 02:19:40,840 right now, one over the other, I guess I'll take Rashi rice. 2246 02:19:41,480 --> 02:19:44,799 But I don't even know. Like, if you gave me odds on 2247 02:19:44,799 --> 02:19:48,800 Jayden Reid, like if you gave me, you know, three to two or 2248 02:19:48,800 --> 02:19:51,920 something, I might I might take Jayden Reid. 2249 02:19:53,440 --> 02:19:57,880 Just just 'cause I think they're both probably around around the 2250 02:19:57,880 --> 02:19:59,280 same. I like Rashi rice a little 2251 02:19:59,280 --> 02:20:01,400 better, but I'm. I'm pretty high on Jayden Reid. 2252 02:20:02,640 --> 02:20:07,160 OK. I mean I think the the point of 2253 02:20:07,760 --> 02:20:10,440 the taking the Chiefs player over the Packers player has sort 2254 02:20:10,440 --> 02:20:15,720 of been like beaten to death. It's been overdone and like 2255 02:20:15,720 --> 02:20:19,200 people will will just like blindly take your grandmother if 2256 02:20:19,200 --> 02:20:27,360 she plays for the Chiefs. But I I do think in this point 2257 02:20:27,360 --> 02:20:32,000 in this context it it it sort of matters quite a bit where they 2258 02:20:32,040 --> 02:20:37,120 they they truly are like they're crying out for another receiver 2259 02:20:37,120 --> 02:20:42,920 and and mahomes it he he is like he is somebody who makes players 2260 02:20:42,920 --> 02:20:46,520 better whereas I'm not sure Jordan love is is that but I get 2261 02:20:46,520 --> 02:20:50,680 in the context of like randomness and is it if one guy 2262 02:20:50,680 --> 02:20:56,200 gets the spike week or not I get that but I it does seem like to 2263 02:20:56,200 --> 02:21:00,640 me that Rice has a has a decently higher chance but 2264 02:21:00,960 --> 02:21:03,640 that's just our argument. No, no, I I agree. 2265 02:21:03,640 --> 02:21:05,760 I I definitely would prefer Rice to read. 2266 02:21:05,760 --> 02:21:07,560 But I I think they're both interesting. 2267 02:21:08,200 --> 02:21:10,680 Definitely got. If I see either of them on my 2268 02:21:10,680 --> 02:21:14,160 rosters as we get into the playoffs, I'm I'm pretty happy 2269 02:21:14,160 --> 02:21:19,320 and I'd love to see them both. And yeah, I I agree there. 2270 02:21:19,720 --> 02:21:25,800 And with that, I think we we've ran way, way over our definitely 2271 02:21:25,800 --> 02:21:28,720 great conversations, but we ran way over our like sort of like a 2272 02:21:28,720 --> 02:21:32,800 lot of time. We we went super off the beaten 2273 02:21:32,800 --> 02:21:36,160 path. We went for like at 150, never 2274 02:21:36,160 --> 02:21:38,840 mind at 90. Yeah, you you tuned in for the 2275 02:21:38,840 --> 02:21:40,720 stats. Little did you know you were 2276 02:21:40,720 --> 02:21:44,160 just gonna get Sack and Draco chopping it up with a little bit 2277 02:21:44,160 --> 02:21:46,760 of stats. The the chat can have a little 2278 02:21:46,760 --> 02:21:52,640 bit of stats as it OK I I I think we should call it there 2279 02:21:52,920 --> 02:21:56,720 and thanks every thanks to everyone for tuning in and we 2280 02:21:56,720 --> 02:22:01,800 will see actually I I'm in Ireland next week and this is my 2281 02:22:01,800 --> 02:22:05,320 way reminding you so you'll probably get like a a special 2282 02:22:05,680 --> 02:22:07,800 special Co host. All right. 2283 02:22:07,800 --> 02:22:11,080 Yeah. So I will see everyone next 2284 02:22:11,080 --> 02:22:15,560 Tuesday and we'll have a a special guest to help me out, 2285 02:22:16,680 --> 02:22:16,920 all right?