Four straight days of FPC, Playoff Challenge content.
I hope you guys are not sick of us yet, but luckily, we are
bringing in a fresh face. One that I know you guys are
always excited when he swings by the show.
It is of course none other than Roto biz's, Sean, Siegel Sean,
great to have you. Back on the show man.
Well, it's awesome to be here. This is this is my favorite.
So the last time I did the show I had more fun than I've ever
had doing a show. And so if it could be half that
good tonight it'll be a blast in rest assured.
I don't actually have any existing prop bets up about
getting you to say this boy or anything like that so that's
that was the most fun you've ever had.
I made a little highlight video just from a bunch of shows from
throughout the year that I put out on New Year's.
Eve, and you better believe that the piss boy clip made the cut
perfect. Perfect Chris in the chat
excited to hear Grandpa karein. Tell another playoff story.
Yes, we will tell some stories tonight.
We will spend some Yarns been Gretsch.
How are you doing, good? I'm good.
Just talked to Sean a few hours ago for stealing billions
episode for. Barroso that hasn't released
yet. Now we get a chat with him.
Here should be a blast. Yeah, feeling good it pat you
just did today. Establish the edge right with
Leone. So we're just like a snake,
eating its own tail and everybody's correction I just
ever since with Leone and like I barely remember doing that.
It seems like just a normal thing.
Of course I would have done a pod like we just talked about
stuff. We've you know, we've just like
been so deep in the lab on all this stuff.
I'm talking Leon and Discord so it seemed natural just to get up
on a on a stream and talk it out too.
Yeah, I saw Daigle did a thread today to linking to all of his
FPC Playoff Challenge contest. It is like a 6 tweet thread.
I mean, we are, we are all like you would have thought we all
wanted a break right now but somehow playoffs have
invigorated, as do you feel like you have a second wind right now
Sean? Yes.
I mean it's been it's been awesome column and I are putting
together. Some teens, we are going to take
another shot at this. And who knows, maybe this will
be the time. I I teased on stealing bananas
which obviously doesn't really work for the timeline because
it's going to come out after the show.
But my bold prediction for you guys is that I think that the
ship chasing teams in the FPC. Playoff contests are going to
go, 1, 2, 3, 1 2 3. So it's nice to hear.
Can we start with Maybe a more realistic goal.
How about you? I think the bigger the bigger
goal is just to keep rolling. What happened in the regular
season which was seeing a ton of wrote ovas in ship Chasers and
stealing signals readers. All at the top of the the
leaderboards for these contests. Oh yeah.
Yeah, I think we keep that momentum going.
Sean. What is your what is your
process for? You know, when you start to
build lineups for this contest, are you just kind of picking
your guys? You have a more, you know,
methodical process. How do you, how do you think
about constructing lineups for this contest?
Yeah, I mean, it's going to be all about trying to figure out
what scenarios you think are going to play out and then Try
to figure out how you can get exposure to basically all of the
stars and yet because of the scenarios you think are going to
happen. You'll still have that
differentiation that doing without taking really lower down
guys. And it seems we're, we discussed
it a couple times on selling bananas on OT.
It feels like we're really moving along through this and I
guess the main sort of take away I have at this point of the
week, having looked at it through the week is that If
you're playing a bunch of teams for sure, but then also, even if
you're only playing a couple teams and you want to not just
cash, but be toward the top at this point.
I don't think that you can play both sides of Arizona, Los
Angeles. Dallas San Francisco New
England, Buffalo. You need to kind of take a stand
with your lineup on which teams are going to make it through
there because you have some individual government.
Some of those teams, the player you pick is just going to have
one game, right? And there may be some one game
players on teams that you actually think are much more
likely to be eliminated but are going to score more points in
that first round anyway. And so there's a tendency and I
played it in the past and cashed well with it where you try and
make sure you keep players alive on some of these close games.
I think that will work depending on how you do it in a certain.
You get a guy who does score, well, then you're fine, but I
think that especially with what we see from this postseason.
This Dynamic, that's maybe something you want at least
consider what those games we talked about that.
A little bit on tomorrow stealing bananas.
And I realize after we recorded Shawn after, we talked through
it, that because we also talked about the like CJ, use AMA
plays, and how we've talked all week here that like that's too
thin in this contest, right? Well, I realize after that what
you're trying to accomplish with the CJ use, I'm a play.
That's how you accomplish. It was Sean just said, you play
a good player from the team that is going to be heavily faded,
you played Dallas, Carter, or you play.
I mean, even if you wanted to go Mi Sanders or something, at
least that player can be the best score on or Devon, says
Smith. Yeah, or Devon says Smith right?
Or then you go over the Steelers, you can play deante
Johnson. You didn't go to Chase Claypool,
if you want to get to a 1% but you play players, good, not CJ,
use AMA from a good team that could Advance you play a team.
That's likely to get I hated that they're going to be faded
at a really high rate that's the exact same play in this contest
that you actually want to make. Yeah.
And like the Bangles instead of playing use um, you know if
that's what you want to do and even to just slightly reframe
that as a thought exercise, like imagine in DFS, right?
Like some of the really thin plays we play because it's you
know, so touchdown dependent and it's a super small sample size
of just one game. There's plenty of times where
who's Oma could outscore? You know, T Higgins, over a
one-game sample. But if you were playing a two
week, long DFS contest, How many times would you want to play?
CJ whose Oma over T Higgins. And that's what you're playing
here if you are playing The Bangles to win the game.
So I think that's just a good way to think about it up to of
like, what are you trying to accomplish and is that the best
way of doing it? Well, Sean you mentioned, San
Francisco, Dallas, Arizona, Allah as places where people
need to pick the winner. These that, because of the game
environments, there you not as interested in the game
environments, there, as like Tampa Bay Philly.
Pittsburgh Casey Las Vegas and Cincinnati.
Is that is that the reason that you're you're looking to pick
those games specifically? I think more that you can easily
do it and get away with it if If you have some guys on the
Raiders or the Steelers, I think that you really have to do what
I think with the Patriots bills especially if the weather is
going to be as rough as we think because not only is a team going
to lose their but maybe really nobody scores.
And so you almost need that second game from the team just
to get a decent point total in the first place.
And if you think that the chief defense has sort of emerged,
even in the second game, you might not get a great score so
that might be one to look away from a little bit there.
But I also think That if you do pick a team or do you think's
going to advance the, you get some big scores from say Dak
Prescott. And then also I think on the
kicker and defense side, there are some interesting places you
could go with that. Maybe if you were wrong, you
would be able to if you pick the rest of it, right?
You could still make your money back that kind of thing.
Because kicker defense scores, from those teams would be
decent. I feel like the 49ers are a
really interesting team in how you That game going.
And, you know, we revealed our Boomer opto last night with
Hassan and Blair. We had Debo Samuel in it,
partly, because Debo Samuel, just feels like the comfortable
play. Regardless of how that game
goes. You can get there in a victory.
Could get there in a loss. He's used in a variety of ways.
How do you think about say the other good Alternatives and Eli
Mitchell in George Kittle? Are there certain game flows
that you would be hoping for if you were utilizing those guys?
Yeah, the thing with kid'll that is interesting is that I think
that sort of kidal is the guy if you're going to play letter
format, right? As I continue to look at it in
the way that the complaint out Gronkowski is somebody that I
really like with the receivers gone with some potentially
decent matchups there, he's actually scored, you know, in a
sense week twelve eighty seven percent of snap percentage
averaging over 16 points per game.
He's got four games over 20. I mean if they win, obviously we
would expect for not to be involved, but I think also, you
have a run from Gronkowski there, that changes who you're
going to play at the other running back positions.
Because if you don't play for net, then this may just be a
little bit of the the Zero running back ish feeling that I
have on some of these Runners. We know when we go into the
season that it's going to be tricky to play some of those
guys from the first rounds. But now in this playoff contest,
we don't really even have stars outside of safe for now.
Net and Henry, and I'm Henry side, there is some additional
reasons why he's a trickier play, but if you go away from
fournette to Gronkowski, then suddenly you have a really hard
time. I think just filling the running
back spots. Well, so are you are you more
interested in? Like the Tampa Bay guys, if San
Francisco wins, is that what you're saying?
Because I, because they would play the winner of LA and
Cardinals. And they have to go What they
have to play Dallas, if Dallas wins.
So I think in some ways, a more interested in Tampa Bay.
If, if we get San Francisco getting through in the first
round. Yeah, I think so too.
Yeah, yeah. So what about okay, so you're
Sean your kind of zeroing in on a couple tight ends.
It sounds like, like, obviously Kelsey's in play Gronk, is the
second-highest projected tight end, right?
I mean, he's the guy that you're just mentioning is a really
strong playoff of kidal. If you weren't gonna play kill
or even alongside Kittle, excuse me, Kelsey.
But then kid'll, is the third. For, in that in that third
discussion, right? There's a couple other guys as
well, Hertz is a big one as well.
But you're kind of saying, like, I mean, are you considering
going all the way to like Goddard or some of those types
of guys know I think that you want to be with the star tight
ends here? The one that's interesting.
If you're going to play both sides of Arizona and San
Francisco would be Earth's there, It's Tricky for me and
some ways you can kind of play these play out, contests to
where you have some of the guys opposite of your actual fandom
or actual rooting interest. I would love to see the
Cardinals get through. I'm worried with just a skill
players. They have now around Cara Maria
that even though they've had some good results, even in that
stretch that they are going to lose and it's fairly easy to see
how you would play it from that perspective.
You want to play both sides and you expect them to lose.
Earth's could have the big game and be the guy who plays it.
There are so many tight ends that could score a lot of points
in this contest. But then, as you think, About
what the best lineup is going to be and having exposure to the
stars. But getting off of them for some
guys who are going to be eliminated in the first round of
score, a lot of points in the first round, then I get back to
maybe only just having the one tight end line up.
I was thinking that it would work out to play a lot, but in
and if you take the, the Dallas side that maybe you want to have
Schultz and I think if you take the Dallas side, then you've got
to play a deck Prescott team. Yeah, I like I like to ask if
you're playing Dallas and is we talked about the Cardinals and
the Rams and then 49ers in in Dallas, I'm getting the sense
that most people are more comfortable playing the same
Francisco side and and then obviously playing the LA side.
So I'm kind of interested in the Cardinals and Dallas just
because it seems like they're going to be kind of underplayed.
But then the tricky part is, how do you do it?
Because like Zeke, Week, we talked about the running back
stuff. If there's not a ton of running
backs kind of gross, I don't love putting him in.
We don't really have an Arizona running back that.
I mean, if anyone you'd have to play Edmonds right now and
people I don't think you're going to like doing that and I
don't feel great about it. So it's like what I guess it's
really just herbs maybe Kirk and then, you know, you got to
figure out a between Zeke and CD and Schultz.
Like, do you have reads on if you're playing those teams to
win outside of the quarterbacks, which I do like but but outside
of the quarterbacks, how you This team's I don't think you
can play Arizona to win, other than playing Marie and it is
interesting. They are because you can play
him, obviously, he's got the rushing ability and one of the
reasons why I probably play them to lose this, it's with how
inconsistent they've been and what the schedule is going to
be. Then I think picking them to
win, twice is trickier. If you put pick them to win
once, you have to almost pick them to win multiple games.
And then that part is perhaps a little more problematic.
You mentioned Chase Edmunds. As I was trying to figure out
how to get a second running back into some of these bills, a
loss, I think it's interesting, especially since it seems like
he's going to play Connor. Probably our favorite player
from this year. It seems very tentative there.
And if like right before you had to actually lock your lineups,
it looked like Connor was not going to play than Edmonds in a
loss. Would be pretty interesting.
If there was no to running back to receivers one tight end for
flex and it was just nine flexes.
How many running backs? Would you call you're alive?
This is a terrible postseason for running back story.
I mean, I'm going to be playing Joe Mixon and that's a team
where you could pick johnhart Chase or t Higgins.
I mean if you would consider Joe Mixon here then if you didn't
have to play running back so you wouldn't play anybody.
Well that's that's why I was I was going to ask you next about
mixing and that opportunity cost because not only do you have
Jamar Chase opportunity cost which is you know significant
you also have t. Hey Ian's opportunity cost, who
I think could get squeezed out right and less people.
Just split it up evenly between Chase and Higgins, which I don't
think they'll do the fact that you kind of need mixing Sean
seagulls talking about playing Joe Mixon.
So people are going to play Joe Mixon, you kind of have to then
I think your but by doing so you're giving up leverage but I
think with t Higgins who should come and lower own as and Chase.
So how are you thinking through that whole, that whole situation
with Bagwell and also Joe Borowski?
Uninteresting. Yeah, bro is the other QB that
you have to look very seriously at playing.
And so I was disappointed with your sort of roster exposure
projections there to have him as high as you did.
Have him. Does the news today at all that
Higgins? May have a tiny little bit of an
issue. Are you projecting a bigger
split now, in terms of how people are roster them?
I was looking into that. And then in that same Bend baby,
quote, from practice, there was video of T Higgins, even after
this injury catching a ball down, the Seemed reaching out
catching it, no problem. So I don't know I guess it all
depends on how much that gets covered from a news angle but to
me it looked like a non-issue for Higgins.
Yeah. And I want to check projections
tomorrow morning and see if you know that's if people are
starting to cool off a little bit on them but I think I docked
him like one or two percent when we when we heard that just
because I think people are looking for reasons to break
ties between Jason Higgins. Yeah certainly the recency bias
goes to go. See Chase but It also just to
follow up on news and notes stuff.
I mean, Cliff did say today that James Conner is like a true game
time decision for Monday, which is I mean talk about how much
you know we don't get a lot of spots you know where it's an
extra game and a day out we're probably not going to have any
more clarity than we do now come lock on Saturday.
I mean, I feel like Chase Edmunds is going to end up just
being like an insanely, good play.
If you're willing to clackety-clack and Roll the dice
on it. I think, I think so.
Yeah. And this is one of the reasons
I'm going to ship chasing one, two, three.
There are going to be some Edmunds lineups in there that
everything a loss is pretty nice.
Like, if you go if you have Edmonds cup you know, could be
good. Yeah, and I mean, the other
thing too is like, even Edmonds in a win without Connor is
pretty good too. Like you can you can have your
cake and I'm assuming Connor comes back the following year So
it's a bit better in a loss but yeah, you could work out.
What are the limits? Oh, go ahead.
I just want to ask is we kind of finished the running back
conversation. There's probably well, there's
two, there's two more groups to really talk through.
There's the well, I'm playing. This game is kind of a shootout
anyway in Jake and Josh Jacobs and nausea Harris, but you're
giving up some pretty interesting pass-catching
options to go there and then you've got the New England,
Hello game that I'm playing is like this cold miserable game?
Why don't I just play One Running Back Fade?
The other team are how interested in those two buckets.
Are you in terms of just getting getting that second running back
in there? Well, the Harris thing is
interesting, because I think that he's only been the leading
rusher for them like twice in the last night games.
Now, obviously set up to be that now, it looks like although he
is perhaps a tiny little bit, dinged up and just I think that
in a loss. Now the thing with with Harris
is that he could be the guy in a win and so if you get two games
from him, then that's great. I mean you would need to not
play. I think the bills guys which
would? I agree because they're so
exciting. You look at Harris.
You look at Those guys can both catch a ton of passes and find
the end zone. So if you're looking for a
running back in a loss, who maybe isn't going to be roster,
Don that many teams then I think I would prefer to go that
direction. Pat, I wanted to ask you because
then I actually talked about it a little bit after we got done
recording today. And how juji it was such a big
part of one of my teams, and I think some of the ship chasing
teams last year. Is there any chance that?
Tyler Boyd could be the juice? Miss Schuster of the Season?
Yeah, I kind of, I think he kind of is Is in terms of the way it
lines up. But you know you're very very
nice to say that we had some some Juju Leone forced us to
play Juju. We were kicking and screaming
and I we did not have much so just like that someone will be
talking me in the Tyler Floyd. I don't think the one thing.
Yeah so just like last year I'll be underweight the smash pivot
play in Tyler boy. Yeah I mean that game does feel
like it could happen. That kind of Cleveland, you
know, Pittsburgh shootout, potential, where it could just
get, you know, pretty Wonky, where everyone's getting their
in some regard. And then you just hoping that
you have the, the highest-scoring pieces from it.
Why it went through? I mean, Tyler boys had a very
solid stretch here. Solid, it's just hard because
it's like if it was tee and Chase, we're both gonna be like
30% and you could get Boyd at 5%.
Then it like starts to get a little interesting, but if
Boyd's gonna come at her, T's going to come in sub 10 percent
or do I do, I think it'll be I think be around 20, you think.
Yeah, I think people will. Still be, he'll be between 15
and 20. I think.
Yeah, I probably would take the under on that.
I just really think if people are playing a Bangles wide
receiver, they're just going to feel so good about Chase but
we'll see. We'll see, I just haven't
District guys, love to Higgins, little ones.
This Knife Tucson a member, so they know been helping, but just
like you said, the fact that even 0r B enthusiasts are
talking themselves into Joe mix and because it's so gross.
And then even Yeah, a lot of the boomers are in love with Jamar,
Chase it. I could just see those two
soaking up the majority of it and people not necessarily
messing with T. I could.
Yeah, one thing I try, I've been trying this year's like if I
identify like, Oh Katie Higgins, smash nine percent owned.
I'm a little bit. Like I'll kind of, you know, I
want to put him up closer to where I think like, you know,
it's not an obvious like just Hammer the shit out of it type
of play. Because you know, given the
field. Some respect on that.
Yeah, I think he's sort of an obvious pivot but man I would
love its up 10%, let's go Shawn when when you say that you kind
of have some interest in Joe burrow in this contest is that
you think the you're playing The Bangles to the Super Bowl in
that case or do you think you could get away with Joe burrow
and three? Three matchups.
Yeah, I think that one of the things that's kind of fun about
the tournament this year is that I think that there are multiple
scenarios in which you don't have to have your, your
quarterback in the Super Bowl and Roberto would be one of
those, you know, Kelsey. And then on the opposite side,
you get a Cooper cup or an atom's or even I mean someone
might be bow if the 49ers made, it could cover the quarterback
pretty easily, right? And so you have the situation if
he can get through against the Chiefs.
But he's also just interesting because the potential there for
How many points is obvious in that it's really easy, kind of
the opposite thing. Almost with the Cowboys where
they have a lot of weapons, but individually the weapons, don't
project that. Well, we're on the bangle side
that got a lot of weapons, but the weapons do project well.
And yet, if they play to that, I don't know.
It's tricky because we saw what, Joe burrow All Season, the sort
of Jekyll and Hyde type of performance.
And you see these games come out, where they can't protect
any takes a lot of sex. X and it's just sort of
mystifying how they're not throwing the ball effectively,
when they have those three receivers and then you see what
happened sort of down the stretch, it just seems
inevitable. How could you not do that with
those three receivers? But if it gets spread out a
little bit, which is definitely possible, it's not going to be
every time that we have a 40-point game by Higgins, offset
by a 15-point game from Chase. And you could get all of those
points. If it's spread and the Bangles
make it, I mean, you're talking about just massive, massive
performance. Is from burrow.
And then in that context, like you said, if they do lose to the
Chiefs and the Kelsey is who you have with that and Kelsey scores
big in the Super Bowl, you can still win and been reminded me
today that the one of the gross Borough games was.
In fact, the last time they played the Raiders, when Joe
Mixon went for 123 yards and two touchdowns in a season high 30
carries but should be no fun to watch Joe burrow.
Throw for 148 yards and one touchdown around one.
Let's not have that please. So are there any quarterbacks?
That you think? I guess I'm trying to think
through the quarterbacks any quarterbacks where you think you
need four games from them to to be the optimal quarterback.
If you if you play them or do you think you can get away with
three with most of these? Yeah.
Really for all of those guys that's going to depend on what
the Super Bowl then is but I think that if you obviously are
playing Marie or Prescott, you need them to get pretty deep and
that makes it I think a much more contrarian type of play in
a play that has a lower chance of giving you a good score.
It's got a higher chance of giving you this crazy score and
we talked about like how differentiated you would need to
be and how many points you would need to score but that's also
what the context of what actually does happen, because
The different ways, the playoffs could play out would really
change. I mean, Beyond just this idea of
what teams make it how the game is play is going to have a huge
impact. Right.
Because one of the things that and I were talking about earlier
today is with Rogers, I mean, there is a path there for him to
have huge performances. I mean, if you're a big mvs or
Allen Lazard fan or you love them both, you know, get your
Aaron Rodgers and expect that to be a game where they actually
shut down multiple games where teams go out and do everything
possible. Will the shutdown Davante Adams
and yet, the Packers still kind of roll through those guys.
Get their points are on drop Aaron Jones gets receiving
touchdowns and, you know, you go from that perspective.
So we could have a lot of different things that play out
and that would really dictate what you had to have there.
But certainly you can be You can try and differentiate by getting
some of these Raiders and Steelers or you could do it by
trying to get those NFC quarterbacks.
Question in the chat here. A lot of people now, kind of
wondering, you know, about how chalky certain things are going
to be Samantha asking here about total cumulative, team
ownership, and if there's a percentage that's optimal again,
to kind of make analogies to DFS.
I would be careful with cumulative ownership because if
you have a really high cumulative ownership, but you
have like a 1% play in there, I think you're, I think you're
probably okay if worrying about a dupe is Of your main concern.
That is much more preferred to if you have you know a bunch of
guys that are all equally owned. So that kind of difference
between a product ownership, you know, multiplying all of the
percentages versus summing them. I think would be more
instructive for wondering where your lineups at.
Do you guys have takes on that? But that's exactly right.
Especially like Cup in Adams and stuff.
If you're just doing cumulative, you're going to get faked out a
little bit by how high those guys are.
I mean, you could play those. Guys and it doesn't mean that
you have to go completely off the radar with everything else.
You put those guys together, right?
Exactly what I'm saying. And then in a in the some
situation you would be able to see if your then playing some
smart 20%. You know sort of Leverage plays
or 15 percent leverage Place, excuse me, in a whatever the
product, the product ownership you'd be able to see it in a
some it wouldn't show up as much because you have the two most
you know, the two highest projected guys they're going to
they're going to confuse the the some ownership Should the queen
and and if you are playing cup and Adams, it's probably a good
idea to have a spot that is differentiating you, whether
it's, you know, a lower owned, pivot guy, like a Boyd or
something or if it's just an unexpected upset that, you know,
most people that you're just going out there and kind of put
in this line up on the line and saying, you know, this result is
happening in week 1 and if not it's dead and yeah you could go.
I mean we have Pat's owner Projections in the ship chasing
Discord. But, you know, I would, if I was
kind of thinking through that, I mean, right at the top, I see
Philadelphia fade in Pittsburgh fade as two of the most popular
plays. I might start to entertain.
All right? What about a Dallas ghadir in an
upset or a deante Johnson, you know, not even necessarily in an
upset for deante Johnson, but just racking up, you know, 13
catches or something like that. I mean, all of a sudden, you
have a play. That is so differentiated, you
know, for most of the field and the other thing, I mean, You
don't have to do this on every line up obviously, but
quarterbacks an easy place to bike.
If you're playing a Kyler lineup, you're already pretty
unique. You already cutting the field
from 7200 to what's our, what's your Kyler projected?
Let's like 6% a so yeah. No.
You're right about 6%. Yeah.
So it's like 500 lineups viewer. Yeah.
And so, yeah, I mean, even if you have atoms in cup in there I
mean You still should do some of these other things, but there's
a lot of spots to do it. You can combine some of these
things, you can be playing a different codec.
You can be, I mean, I think you can play Josh Allen as the Chuck
quarterback with both of those receivers and still do something
like what you can play Young definitely and yeah, things
happen. Yeah.
But the quarterback points, a good one because well, you've
got, you've got Kyler, you've got back, you've got hurts,
you've got Borough, you've got Brady, you've got Rogers, all of
those quarterbacks I think, will be like Ribbit place in because
I because I think it's basically to come down to my homes.
It's like the beat secondary chalk and then Alan true chalk.
Yeah. And the other thing to again in
sorry for all the DFS analogies. But I think there's so many
parallels here to where, you know, what, where is there going
to be the most Randomness in scoring it's going to be with
defense and kickers. You know.
Those are generally fairly hard to project so if you're looking
for a spot to get unique I mean that's the place I'm going to
Look at right away. You were, we were joking about
Daniel Carlson last night. He's going to be fairly popular
mean just don't play. The chalk kicker.
I mean, that's immediately a way that the field is probably over
confident in their ability to project how much defense and
kicker scoring is going to happen.
Yeah, I wanted to ask you here. Where are we on the current
number? On Hunter Renfro and then Pete.
What kicker do we need to have a plan?
Was to go on Renfro. Yeah.
I Pull up the exact number, but something like 4%.
Something that range, I might have bumped it up to its six or
something as we talk through it. But yeah, I was actually just
from a, like, do you actually play on a Renfro?
I was writing up the walk through today and just noticing
how much of his production at come in those two games.
When he ran around on, like 95% of Dropbox, in both games and
the Raiders are running out, I love and Personnel at the
highest rate, they had all season and then they just
flipped and have been gone two and three.
We're going a bunch of three tight ends sets against the
Chargers. They got Waller back there,
carrier back, blocking tight in. I'm like, I'm not feeling
Renfro, to be honest, but I have them.
I've heard a lot about them. People seem interested.
So think I'm around 5 or 6%, I'll pull it up.
It's fascinating to didn't in that in that overtime game.
He had what like was it less than 20 yards receiving but he
just found the end zone. Twice twice.
Yeah. It's four touchdowns the last
five games. I think it is something like
that. Sean.
Do you have some some Renfro interest is.
Was that a leading question? Well you know, as I mentioned we
have from week 9 to week 14 wide receiver.
One finishes, which are hard to do in five of six games and then
not another one sense, but I think Hunter Renfro and blowout
loss to The Bangles is potentially pretty interesting,
are we back to the beginning of the Season here with The
Cardinals and the Cardinals kicker.
I know that when we did our are chasing stolen bananas, that was
the way that we wanted to go and maybe I think we are 6%.
Yeah, yeah. I mean the kicker stuff is
interesting to just because I wonder if these weather
situations are going to end up, even condensing things further
because people aren't going to want to play kickers and, you
know, whether concern game. So that's kind of interesting to
me like, you know, part of me wanted to be like, I think this
Bucks team is kind of fraudulent as they're currently
constructed. What if, what if you saw fade,
the box would like, a Ryan, suck up type of play, but then it's
like if there's going to be some gross, So, you know, low-scoring
whether game then that's not necessarily the angle, you'd
want to take their. So I do think as far as looking
for contrarian kickers, the first place to look, is what
teams aren't going to be faded? Because people want to plant
like we were talking about finding ways to fade like Dallas
and San Fran because people want to play both sides of that.
You know, the kicker's there are probably it looks like gold is
projecting for a little bit ownership but they're reasonable
place. And so I think you have already
rejected WhatsApp Dallas defense as well.
Yeah. And you have Prater projected
for pretty high ownership. If you're picking the Cardinals
to win. I think you can take, Matt gay,
who we have projected really low, because a cup.
I mean, that's, that's an easy with like, I mean, like, I guess
we're talking about how to differentiate chalk team that
probably has cup raining bullets on the one for Tennessee.
I think you can saw fade off of Derrick.
Henry, I mean like some of these that are like, people want to
play the guy on the team, you know, Leone's are the chit old
guys, make the best pivots so good.
We need Leone to roll out like a true Boomer line up with AJ
Green. Oh yeah, it is he's quite
capable of it. That wouldn't be the Boomer.
We call that the geriatric optimal brought to you by
Michael Leone would definitely have Zeke?
Holy go Julio I forgot. I honestly forgot that was even
in play it's so great. Yeah um I know that he wants him
as this year's Juju. Ooh, so I mean, just there, he's
waiting, he's waiting for Saturday morning for that.
Take luckily, I haven't heard on heard the global.
Yeah, slow and steady. Um, what other, what other teams
are kind of decision points? Are you wrestling with right
now? Sean. well, the Titans right are
an interesting one because So much that we talked about last
year, and it was interesting talking with Ben earlier today
because obviously, I didn't do these teams with you guys last
year but we ended up landing on perhaps not.
Surprisingly was very similar moving to AJ Brown off of Henry.
And I wonder if people are going to and this was something that
he was saying, you're kind of moving in the direction of
thinking will happen. A lot of people kind of going
off of him and so Based on how you build the rest of your team.
I'm almost wondering AJ Brown is not the way to play it.
That there will be a lot of really smart participants on AJ
Brown and you might want to actually get away from them by
either having. Projecting the Titans to lose
their first game in a low-scoring game.
So a little bit like the bills Patriots scenario, where even
though those were exciting teams, especially the bills,
maybe that game doesn't go particularly, well, you know,
could the Titans go out and not just go out, go out without
their guys really scoring or do you actually want to get back to
Henry despite the questions of how many people will have him?
Despite the questions of How do you respond after having not
played for a long time? And it's great to have the by
but I mean you're going to go into this not having played and
you have those big concerns at the same time.
Again, I'm trying to look at ways to figure out how putting
running backs in the lineup and it almost seems kind of silly if
your thing. How do I play a running?
Back to na KOA Derek him? Well, one thing to kind of add
to that is the scenario based stuff.
If the Bills win, then the Titans are getting the winner of
a guy, you just assuming the Chiefs win, but I guess that
could be a terrible upset that we'd all hate, but let's assume
the Chiefs win and the Bills win, then the Titans are getting
the winner of The Bangles and the Raiders, and it is tougher
to see them being like really low scoring in those games.
But if the Patriots It's win Titans Patriots, much easier to
see being low scoring, so I guess.
Are you more interested in pairing that Titans Fade with
with the Patriots and the Patriots are also so tough as we
talked about earlier. Like it's no fun to play a
patriot. But I'd that would be, I think
how you get that super low scoring game, most likely?
Yeah, and so again, if you go with Damien Harris, it's a
situation where then it would be really easy to simply not take
Titans. And then I think you again, you
would get Line up at that even though there are a lot of people
picking the Bangles to go through the Titans.
As, you know, we kind of expect the bills to feed into the
Chiefs there and so the Bengals going through and you can see
the Bangles holding the Titans down as well.
I think either way you do that, but if you have Damien Harris in
your lineup, then don't put Titans with him.
Yeah, and that's also an interesting.
Do you think people are thinking through, if that scenario, which
I believe is the chalk scenario, having Joe Mixon, and Derrick
Henry against each other. In the divisional round?
You think that gives people pause worrying about one of
those running backs in in a negative game script.
Yeah, except that could be a very I mean, we do need to
consider that as a possibility, it is also a game that can be
very competitive and both teams get concerned about the
quarterback play, and go heavily to those guys.
And so both those guys score a lot of points and then one of
them does advance for you into the next round.
And so you have either Henry or Mixon in the championship game,
you know, with the Chiefs a potential situation, I think the
score more points off those those guys and so that would be
an element of it. But, uh, With Nixon and Henry,
I'm just very drawn to them because otherwise, how do you
get a running back without going to Leonard fournette?
And, you know, there is a situation here where maybe you
say I'm going to build this really awesome team, around the
Leonard fournette and the forget about the fact I didn't have any
of this year. Yeah, I'm either for that stuff.
If you look at etrs projections, he's the top ranked School guy
for the playoffs. It does.
I mean the the weather there? Someone was mentioning earlier,
how gross the weather could be and Certainly could see a lot of
dump-off passes for that's like pretty interesting in, you know,
the Buccaneers only played two games type of scenarios because
I think if at all kind of crumbles, it might, it might
crumble into a bunch of dumb place to Lenny, but obviously
it's touched on equity and wins my struggle with for net is,
does he come in as Mega chalk? Because if so, then I'm, I'm
quite comfortable having some, but not a ton and getting some
drunken getting some Heavens. But if he's He tame in the
ownership then he does unlock a lot of stuff and creates a lot
of flexibility for your lineups. And if you're just thinking
about how those teams win or you know, been what is the identity
of the bucks right now. Like losing all these past
weapons, can't you see their identity shift to Lenny and
check down Lenny as like the their primary engine of the
offense. Yeah, I mean, it was a sad
realization talking with Sean today that I'm going to wind up.
Very excited about all the running backs, that I don't
like. But yeah, I think for net makes
a lot of sense from that regard. I mean, I think, you know, one
of the things Sean I talked about on our first look, this
week, who's shown your first thoughts were like, in the way
to build the 0r B team in. This was to kind of flip the
conventional logic, where you, you want, obviously your
quarterback to be going as far as possible.
You also, kind of want your running back to be from teams
that are going kind of far because those teams are racking
up wins and they're playing in. Of script and then you're sort
of pivots to pass. Catchers can be in the one game
situations or they can go long if it's Cooper, copper, whoever.
But those guys often are going to be in one game and it's a
loss specifically and that can typically push offenses toward
more passes, right? So a lot of times I'm running
backs aren't going to get there but Shawn's idea is sort of was
for the 0r B build, was it? Maybe we should be targeting the
running backs that we are actually playing to lose in the
first round because this is a playoffs.
That there aren't a lot of good running backs, and it could be a
pass heavy. And we can see scenarios
Converse championships are four paths first teams.
And so that's a really interesting build the.
So our first discuss, you're saying good just to because but
Sean saying is basically he's hoping that everyone else gets
their running backs through so that he can play wide receivers
directly against. Yeah yeah that's exactly what
animal is that you want to think Jacobs and and Nagi Harris and
have like yeah. Oh team so he's playing bro to
win and and I thought that was really unique interesting and
unique the way that I think we got to hit this.
Morning was talking a little bit more about the the teams that
are maybe more likely to play two games.
So it's like, it's a, it's a middleware not necessarily
playing the running back to the conference Championship.
But if you play for net to lose in the second round, like Pete
said, I mean, you can see for not having a big first game,
probably a decent second game. It's a similar reason for why
you might want to play Henry, they're probably being
underrated to win their first game.
I mean I like Shawn's idea full fading them as well, but it's
not bad to play Tennessee to win a game and losing the converse
title, maybe and mix-ins. And other one that we've talked
about mix-ins, I think becoming one Replace just because I
really do like them to beat the Raiders.
I like them to go far, but I mean, if they played two games,
it's a scenario. Where mixing could wind up being
just one of the only running backs who has a couple of good
scores because he is a big part of their offense just sort of by
nature of being there because it's not only him as driving it.
But anyway, I like I like this idea of like playing a two game
running back and then find a three-game receiver because it's
kind of play off. What about zika in that because
Like I'm struggling with Dallas Zeke is a pretty good candidate
for to game running back for net is as well.
There's a couple guys, Eli Mitchell but but with Zeke, you
know, Cooper, I think it's going to be very low on Schultz is
going to be a pivot play. I still think CD, will be fairly
chalky where you at on, on, on Zeke, first disco player.
Sean, well, the problem that I run into with him, I mean,
obviously, you've got the power to shoot but then you say that
they do well in the first game and they get Roo and then I mean
that's going to just be all lamb, Cooper Schultz.
I mean, it's going to be improbably colouring, that's
going to be this massive shootout or both teams are just
scorching each other through the air and when they do handoff and
Ellie gets tackled for a two-yard loss, then they quickly
remember that. Oh, yeah, we want to pass on
these guys, so the fact that he's not even more interesting.
If you want to really go out there and I don't even think
it's necessary that proper for the reasons that Pete mentioned
where, I mean this the reason to not be be picking an eagle's
upset. It's just even an upset, the,
you know, I play two games. You're like, I mean, how do you
play that, right? I mean, Jalen hurts with the
quarterback, unless you think he's going to go to the
championship game. It's a little bit trickier and
the rest of those guys just seeing the upside with, it is
just so difficult and Udall scholar.
It's awesome. And that if I played him on a
team, that didn't even have the tight end premium and it went
okay, but there just isn't the passing volume there to make
that work. So that's the reason why you're
heavily on him at Bay and so if you're on Tampa Bay and then you
see Dallas going into them in the second round.
It's just hard to see how Elliot really scores the points that
you need. If you did want to go out and
say though, we think the Eagles are going to get upset, then,
maybe Elliott becomes more interesting.
Also, it's tough to be the highest score on your team
leader. Not going to be a high-scoring
running back. You kind of blew through that,
but that's true. You do want to be the highest
positional play for you. It makes it difficult.
Well, that's what I was looking at.
So we've been talking about these four running backs that
Pat has projected over 30% in the contest Henry for net mix in
Elliott. Like just looking at these 1B
ones. Like, tell you guys, tell me
what is the biggest opportunity cost to your Derrick Henry over
AJ Brown, Leonard fournette over Rob Gronkowski Joe Mixon, over
Jamar, Chase Zeke Elliott Over CD lamb.
Joe Mixon. My name is also Higgins.
Zika man feels like one of the lower opportunity cost.
I mean all those other options are I mean mudsy deal and
obviously, but the reality is like the target share is not.
I mean, that often has been spread out.
The Dallas pass game has been spread out.
Tortures not been there. He's not been as explosive as
Chase. I mean you don't have the Titan
premium like with Gronk and grunts going to get condensed
targets as well. So But like that's not the only
part of the equation like that, you're still like, Zeke, you
have to, you have to play Z? Yeah, I would write faster
because mixing just better than this.
Can run interested in sorry in Lamb a little bit.
From the perspective of the Cowboys have seemed to spend a
lot of the Season trying to make the, we had the Amari Cooper
game where they're like, yeah, he said something the media were
not arguing 20 times and hopefully that does it for the
rest of the way. They've been trying to make it
seem like Elliot is a viable running back but now you're into
this part of the Season matters and so you know we had this long
stretch of down games from Chase.
And then we saw him blow out of it in such spectacular fashion.
That now we're projecting this big ownership, but then I look
at your numbers, Pat, it doesn't feel to me.
Like you're actually getting that kind of discount on lamb in
terms of how you think the other rosters are going to be
constructed which then makes it less interesting again.
Yeah, I guess I just because Zeke is just So gross, no one
wants to play them. So we're I mean if I have I have
zika 30% limit 25%, Schultz at 13% and cooperate and the spot
where I think I could be pretty off.
He's Shults. We're like maybe people bump him
up and lamb comes down just for the tight end premium play.
But you have so many tight ends that are viable and we built a
lineup on here where Schultz was the only tight end and kind of
felt silly after, you know, it's like well, man, we gave up.
A lot of opportunity in tight end to play Schultz.
So I don't know. I mean maybe it's closer than I
have it. Maybe it's more like 23:15 or
something, but I don't know. It's like Cooper is not giving
anyone the warm and fuzzies. So what are you supposed to do?
Yeah, even if you say it was maybe not perfect, I do like
that Schultz lineup but also if you're listening to been there a
second ago, I mean I'm back on Josh Jacobson Nagi Harris and
get rid of those running backs after Route 1 and have xever are
here. I do want to ask you like
because one of the things that's going to happen naturally is
because running back is so gross here.
We're going to talk talk ourselves into the various
running backs Josh Jacobs. It's actually pretty easy to
see, you know. A couple touchdowns in the law
sees the high scoring writer. That's not even that hard Nagi.
They're going to throw two. They threw to him 17 times one
time this season, they could easily do that again, right?
So you talked ourselves in but then as you're going through and
making lineups, what if you have three or four running backs in
that lineup or you just not your just preventing?
I mean you probably have no trouble doing this but how many
running backs would you play Max in your lung?
22, never playing three, whatever the legally required
amount. I just wanted, I just wanted the
teeth awesome, right? And if the Titans were actually
the team that was going to roll through a beat everybody.
Yeah, maybe you could get the three because you'd be directly
plus a couple guys for sure. But, yeah, I mean, just, just
get those guys out of there as fast as possible.
It kind of comes down to like, how comfortable are you playing?
I'm Joe Mixon and Leonard. Fournette, people who are Mike,
only starting running backs in the NFL because of all the
amazing players around well. So what happened?
Love this. I was going to say that running
back is so thin we know that and we already know just broadly,
that, you know, any given week in the NFL, whatever there's so
many more receivers that can produce and so if you are really
trying to thread the needle and optimized for the highest
scoring and all those things, I mean, every not every team but
most teams have three receivers I can play.
What I am talking about the second or third see which in
some cases. And I know we've spent part of
this week saying, don't play Cedric Wilson, don't play, you
know, some of these really long shot guys.
But if you want to play alone, shot guy.
Make sure you check out stealing bananas.
Where been mixed. His first mate P run.
What was that? I think that was for those who
was put a draft tournament. Yeah that was for the draft plan
after two minutes. I don't want to play him in the
FPC but I mean you know it could happen.
No. I was saying just there's so
many more receivers that can hit.
You kind of think through like what are the top scores going to
be? How the optimal going to play
out. Like look at the positional
leader boards at the end of the playoffs.
Soooo and and like mix from running back and receivers how
many running backs are in the top, you know, 30, right, or top
20 or whatever, how 10 even you're probably gonna be a lot
more receivers in those areas because there's just more
receivers generally and we're going to see these particular
offenses, in general, throw it a good amount, right?
Yeah, and also Jess, I've been giving, you know, kind of
Underdog draft, ATP data to these guys to just see kind of
see, you know, Market sentiment. And I will say, Henry fournette
in mix in all. Definitely go in a tepee tear
before Zeke, those guys are all kind of from, you know,
beginning of round two to like into round three and then Zeke
will sometimes go like round, four round five, so there is
like a little Gap there. And one thing I've noticed is
people really like drafting Joe Mixon like people will be really
aggressive with their Joe Mixon drafting on there and just the
entire Bangles themselves. Have just gotten so much steam
lately. Like people are really in on the
Bangles right now. Yeah.
But I think that's one of the interesting things is that means
they're less in on the Titans to some extent because the, you
know, they're often playing the Titans.
So in the end there, Obviously very few people are in on the
Patriots. So yeah, that's the only way
they're not playing the Titan. So you're getting kind of that
chalk upset path, which is, which is tough.
And then if you're, if you're in the Bangles, are you playing AJ
Brown? I guess if I could know any
ownership, I think right now, it would be.
Derrick. Henry told me, Derrick Henry.
Yeah, yeah. That's that's your one.
I think that's my yeah. Actually, my one might be for
net actually because it for because if gronk's like 18%, I
just want to hammer him, but if for that's like, you know, 25
that's also an incredible play. What would be Sean if you could
no one exposure ahead of time? Which would you pick?
Probably Samuel versus kittel because you know, we had that
stretch from kittel. We know the talent level from
Kittle, there are interesting scenarios obviously, where the
49ers make it pretty deep. And then, you know, that would
allow you to do some things that it can give you a lineup that is
super powerful, but also is not heavily duplicated across other
other potential injuries. Yeah, our friend, Michael Leone
says the issue with that is a lot of these are bees, have
median projections that are better than wide receivers,
which matters a bit more in this type of contest when you're
pinned, two teams, playing one or two games.
That's a fair point. I would just say when they're
playing one game, a lot of times you're talking about - scripts
so the running back better catching passes to write and
that, that's why this Chase Edmunds play is pretty
intriguing. There's not a lot of these
running backs down here to that. You just feel super good about
catching passes. I mean, even Nagi Like Pat you
have them at 25%. I mean he didn't practice again
today like it's there's any kind of doubt.
Yeah, I'm Saying I mean I think that holds if we get good news
on him but that even removes another guy that people at least
are comfortable that he's going to catch passes if they're
getting boat race by the Chiefs. Yeah, yeah, and I think if he
gets in a full practice tomorrow, it'll probably be.
Probably be fine but he needs that.
It's probably limited. It's probably limited and then
you get like the, yeah, he'll be.
All right, quote. Yeah, Sean.
This is where you you tell Penny Snell.
That's why you're here. You can ever do go wrong with
bunny smell. I mean, he's got, he's got a
stronger brand, still the nausea Harris, right?
What did I just don't get it. That's right, you look, they
look kind of good in in relief Leslie.
Yeah, it is because there's the uncertainty with the Chiefs is
just no one in the opportunity cost is so high.
No one's playing CH order. Alright, well, CH is a guy that
now, there's a realistic chance. He's out for week one.
So I think you'll see a little bit of Darryl Williams.
Yeah. Yeah, see you're not.
You're going to have to bump him up.
I can see him coming in. That's also higher percent in
the right before the show, but that's probably a little too
high because people think about round two, but maybe what do you
think like to just just something just a little little
sprinkling a little sprinkle. Shawn.
What's the most amount of tight ends you could see in your your
playoff lineup? Well, I was thinking that you
could end up with even two or three with how strong it is.
But then when you build out the team's your kind of pushed back
into really wanted to get some of the other guys on those teams
and I think use them in different lineups as opposed to
all the same lineup. But again, if you're only going
to play one or two lineups, then I think a multi tight end team
mmmmm does get to be kind of interesting because probably
you're not going to have a lot of other person's do that.
And you know what the tide a premium you can easily see them
go off for these huge scores. I mean Mark Andrews was the guy
who really dictated the fantasy playoffs.
We could see that from somebody in a slightly different world,
and we could have seen that from George kiddo.
And then, obviously, you'd be looking at him in a different
light as it relates to see emblem as I mentioned, a moment
ago, I think that those guys when you're talking Kelsey and
Gronkowski and Kittle. And then you guys have mentioned
the Schultz. The upside there is big.
And so, then especially if you're looking at some of those
guys to be in games where they lose, and if you're talking
about multiple games where you need it, and these guys have
probably lower reception totals as you go along, but if it's one
game in a loss than it's pretty interesting to have multiple
guys there. Yeah.
That makes sense to me Gretch. What's your max tight end?
Is there a Max tight end for you?
Give me a number in one line up. Yeah, have freaky.
Can you get me? I mean, I have not even really
actually entertained building 510 and lineups, but, I mean, I
don't know. I think we started the week
thinking that was going to be a really, you know, unique thing.
But I've had people that that I, you know, that I would say or
not as plugged in and I listen to a lot of content so many
limes be like, oh, you know, here's this unique line up and
they're big. Unique thing is playing, you
know, three or four times. Since like, I just think it's
something that I've own kind of sees right away.
Yeah, Sean, we have Beastie here in the chat.
He wants the Chiefs takes you know are Quasi boots on the
ground here is Travis or sorry it's Tyreke healthy.
Can this team string together for big performances here?
How we feeling? Yea, the Chiefs are going to go
through, right? And so I never like to play the
most straightforward line up, but you need to play the winning
line of, which is Chiefs, winning the Super Bowl.
So then you build off of capturing, the homeless, get all
those Tyree kill and Travis Kelce points in there.
And so, yeah, I like it. Yeah, I think we're what do you
have the Kelsey? And he'll at right now path,
you're muted. I keep adjusting it because of
this hill stuff, but I have Kelsey at 60% and pihl is down
to. I have, he'll pull down to 12%.
Yeah. Is that crazy.
What do you think? I mean, he was back at practice
and it seems like the injury concerns are starting to fade.
I guess it all has to goes back to how confident people are
feeling about other tight ends compared to.
If the field thinks Travis Kelce can really separate from the
rest of them. And one of the things we've
finally seen a little bit recently is that the peripheral
piece? Is as they needed to.
As we've had these guys on the covid list, as we've had them
deal with some nagging injuries as Travis.
Kelce is actually committed. Some big third down drops, all
those kinds of things. Now it hasn't been Josh Gordon
who continues to look absolutely terrible.
But some of these other guys are making some plays some of the
other receivers are making some plays in the passing game and
overall. Now, the offense looks more
stable and more ready to beat teams in a variety of ways.
Then they looked at midseason, where if you were say, Tyree
kill. Is iffy or is not going to be
100%? Then you might back way off of
the Chiefs. Yeah, that makes sense.
I've got some 215 and took Kelsey down to 57.
This felt a little too low. This is these are the kind of
things that make Pat feel alive. Bumping until see down to 57
percent. Yeah, feels great.
Anyway. Have you been waking up in cold
sweats saying like, oh my God, I should have Cam Akers, projected
42 percent instead of one percent.
No, no, I'm 40. I feel I feel great about it.
That's don't have to come. You're about about fire.
Muth, I kind of think for our moods, like slightly above the
Mendoza, Line of who you can play in this contest.
Like I've claypool's, you know, already going to be one percent,
so you don't really need to go there, but it is tight in
premium. So I think he's like above the
use AMA line. The problem is is fryer, Muth is
going to get there with a two touchdown game, not the death by
1000, you know, 1.5 cuts, and I am 100% sold on the Ben
Roethlisberger past tense. You cannot convince me of any
other outcome in this game. First thing I thought of to Pete
was like, yeah, Frye boots can do it but he's not going to do
that. Probably going to have a 12
Target game and that's how this is playing out.
There's no other way. This playing out Roethlisberger
story 57 times Yeah and then so that's why.
Yeah it seems a lot of Roads point back to Deonte because
been already loves him if nagi's a little banged up.
I mean fryer moved in Claypool could definitely get their fryer
Marathon. Touchdowns Claypool and big
plays but I guess it's a little tougher.
And because I guess that's why Deonte is going to be more
popular because there is that certainty where it's like you
need a more like back and forth. Good game for a probably
Claypool and fryer Muth whereas you could have the Chiefs win
4210 and deante Johnson. Nagi Harris get you know, 10
plus targets easily. Do you think that the on say,
Johnson will ultimately be more popular in here than Harris?
I guess a lots going to come down to the injury stuff but you
know, I think everyone's telling themselves the story of this
game shooting out if you're going to play the Steeler but
the same time. Now as you hear this is probably
going to be like the 105 and deante Johnson is not going to
be anywhere near the 105 and ffp Celiac.
So, it is like a Yeah, and we're taught we were talking about
opportunity costs on a team. I mean, now you start to talk
about opportunity costs at a position you know, like right
once once you're doing that you're having to leave out a
Debo or a CD lamb or am I. Kevin so exactly.
Deonte is a pretty big decision point.
I think if there were no concerns about nagi's health
that people would be happy to burn the running backs lot on
him. Yeah, I think there's a I mean,
I said this a couple times maybe on the show already this week
but I think there's It's certainly a subset of the fancy
Community. That's kind of seeing Nagi
similar to, to Jonathan Taylor this time last year, which to
all of us doesn't seem really logical but he was efficient.
Running the ball late this year. He was a high draft pick coming
in this year in redraft and and produced, and especially
recently has had some big rushing games that he hadn't
had. And so people are talking about
him is, you know, first round Dynasty, pick a first round,
pick in. Draft for next year.
I mean, I think people want to play them on that on that level.
Yeah. Yeah.
I mean the other thing too. I mean Pat you still have
Pittsburgh fade as one of the biggest fades in the contest
too. Yeah, there just has to be like,
I mean, I don't know unless people just go really all out
against New England, which I already kind of have them doing,
I have 69 percent of the field, feeding New England, whether
it's just all out, or through the soft Fades, which is well,
above their chances of playing, two games.
Some of some of that makes sense because it's hard to pick the
right guy, even if they do play two games, but there's like,
everyone wants to play San Francisco, right?
Pilar people going to play Pittsburgh at a higher rate than
than Cardinals. Guys.
I have that. I have them is pretty dead even
but I guess I could see that. But that seems like kind of bad
to some degree. Like you could potentially get
two games out of your Cardinals guy.
You're already eating the chalk with cup.
You know, you're already. You're already like hand-in-hand
with the rest of the field when you lose cup, that's not even a
big deal and you get the Cardinals Guy, moving forward,
you get the advantage. So there you know, I think
there's some Merit to In the Cardinals.
Got anyway, I'm struggling to see Pittsburgh not being like
played to have the fade go any lower because I feel like I'm
already have it, pretty low relative to their odds of
playing two games. Shawn if you had to play a New
England player. And say you wanted to fade
Damien Harris as well. What New England pass catcher?
Might you be interested in? What are we allowed to play?
Kendrick Morgan, he's the he's the star from their loud, play
over. You want arms wanted, 3% moves,
can I introduce you in a point zero five percent, move around
down and write, not the play for this but is going to be a 20%
winrate player. Next Year so it's easy to see.
Why fire Muth would be mentioned.
The thing that you were saying their patent that is interesting
and then it comes back. I think too you know, are you
going to play you know, one or two teams are going to play 10
teams? How does that change it?
It's just that. I think you have to be in on the
Cardinals, on some out, on some but then kind of weirdly in, on
different members of the Steelers, for kind of either
way, right, where you have some Harris and you have Johnson.
Because even though you're going to play one game, I think you
want to have some exposure to the one game at out guys who are
going to score a ton of points. We love Sean.
Now we we, we got, but that is, I mean, that is what happened
last year with the exact same team, which on saying you want.
The one guy, one gaming out guys to support center points.
I was literally Pittsburgh, and no one thought the game would
shoot out so, right Shaunie back.
I think he was murdered in the earlier, having some internet
issues, and I think it's probably just switching his
internet should be good to go when he gets that fixed now.
I think Sean just acting. This is just an incredible.
Pause ready. I'm already getting out my best
ball, notebook to write down, draft more Pat, fryer mu, then
you were planning to draft after Shawn's comment there.
Yeah, well, I own the Pittsburgh thing, I think we got Shawn back
because Pittsburgh is such so likely to only One game.
I mean according to the like if you just look at the line they
still have a 17% chance of beating the chief so it's not
like you know it's a one percent chance but they're you know the
least likely team to advance. Does that make you more
interested in going a little bit like off the beaten path.
Maybe not to Farmers but what about the Claypool who's
probably going to be one percent owns and if you're just trying
to pick a guy who scores the most points in one game, there's
like a little bit less risk you know, like compared to With the
with the, with the Boyd pick, you're probably getting two
games out of the Bangles and you're going to have to have boy
we beat everybody and two games, that feels feels like a thin
bent but in just one game, anything can happen. yeah, so
then that I like this, this two touchdowns from fryer moved with
the With the 50 passing attempts.
That makes Friar moves normal past, volume up into the range
where we could be interested. No, I just think you have to
have such a high projection for deante, Johnson, for naxi Harris
that even after playing a bunch of teams, you split between
those two guys and you actually end up with a lot of it exposure
to those guys, even though you expect the team to lose.
Yeah. What do you say?
We build a team fellas. Let's do it.
So shot. We've been, we've been doing a
show each day this week and I've been registering us.
Each team, we build at the end of the stream in the football
guys, Playoff Challenge. So this there is skin in the
game here. So before you start, you know,
trying to toss Kendrick born and I just want you to know I
shelled out. 35 dollars of my hard earned money for this.
He's trying to turn that into a lot more money, that's right.
And The other thing to catch you up on Sean is Ben, has been
taking the very brave stance of putting Cooper cup into our
line. Us these days.
Look, somebody's got to take the low on plays, I'm sorry that you
guys won't get confirmed enough, but somebody's got to, you know,
give our, give it, give some differentiation in here.
But Sean, you, you have the honors.
You can kind of steer. This lineup in whatever
Direction you want. What do you?
What do you feel in here? Well, I made the case for the
the Chiefs avenging, their Super Bowl loss.
And so if we believe that is going to be the path, I've got
my Chiefs going here. Let's go with Patrick mom's.
This is fun, boom. Yeah, this already became fun.
All right, let's go. We'll go down the, we'll head
south here to Pat. What do you think?
Deante Johnson, we just talked about then it's going to throw a
million times. Let's do it.
All right, there it is. Now we have our little mini
stack for that game. Been you want me to go cup or
you got somebody else in mind? I will go.
I swept in the league. The NFL in yards breakout room,
I'll go mixing. I like mixing.
All right, makes I'm gonna I'm gonna add the first running
back. They know Sean's not going to be
taking any will get us going with mixing?
So, how many days would you normally add to the slip?
Well, two and a half more. Wow.
Well that's really is. No because Tebow who is one wide
receiver and I am I'm gonna chew up through our last running
backs. Lat, I'm going to do it for the
team. We talked about it.
I'm ready to go full cojones here.
Chase Edmunds, boo. Oh, I like it.
We have a Connor on one of these.
Can you, can you flip yesterday's to chase Edmunds?
I will probably review these. Yeah, please do probably, I'm
not making promises, but I probably will review them that's
in the spirit of that one. Well, it's kind of like our
swole castlight UPS to wear. Except those, I toss in
freerolls and then I do not change them.
I will just take a zero at it. All right.
Sean your back around here? Well, let's let's make sure that
we can't get Get Leonard fournette and take Rob
Gronkowski. I don't think there's anyone
Sean that you write about with more disdain that letter.
I feel bad putting Mixon and for not in the same category earlier
so I'm like Nixon is fine. He's a decent player.
I shouldn't have mentioned those guys together.
Alright. Alright.
So I guess. So we're going to have the
bills. And the Chiefs play, if they
win. Or we're going to have the
Patriots go to the Titans. If they win, I'm going to let
someone else make the decision. Let's go.
Darren Waller, okay? All right, this is getting fun
Gretch. Hmm.
See the board be the board Playoff scenarios flying across
A Beautiful Mind makes his selection.
Are you playing Edmonson a loss here in a win?
Either. That's the beauty of the plastic
commands. You don't realize what I'm
thinking. I'm thinking that gay right now.
Ha ha ha. This is where.
This is where bed says Vegas. I don't do it just to cup.
I think, I think we do want Edmonds in a loss because we
don't want Connor coming back around to Okay, that's not even
a bit. Yeah, that's why I asked that's
why I asked I was kind of thinking So we want we don't
want to rims kicker here. We're probably at the Rams to
win. All right, I'll take another
sweetie. I'll go see.
Wow. Someone needs to put come from
this lineup because we're running out of spots and freaked
out a little bit. Well I put Davante Adams in this
lineup and now it's to Sean. Well, I was gonna go with the
Dallas defense but we can no longer make them move so you
don't want to play both sides of that game.
I know, but I think we can play both sides of that.
We're running out of we'd like, literally can we know, we can we
literally can't play both sides of that unless we don't play
cup. Why?
Hey you're saying that because you don't have a patriot or a
bill. Yeah but what exactly about you
can make lamb Debo. If John wants to do let's do.
I was I was between Lambda d by let's do Depot and suddenly and
Shawn can do the Dallas. The idea?
Is that your picture on? Sure?
Yeah. Okay.
Pat Cooper cup Cooper cup and then are we just feels good,
doesn't it? I mean, I wish you'd done it, I
would have been more fun. Diggs are AJ Brown, really tough
call for you here. I just like fade the Titans
more. Yeah.
We we can't take agent Brooks and we wouldn't have a patriot
or a bill. Yeah, you need to take.
I mean, you could take. I mean I could take Kendrick
born shut up Sean. I'll take Diggs.
Okay, and then that leaves us placekicker come on Bullock.
No one's. Yeah, I would go bullet because
you're getting the Bangles. The bangers are going into
Tennessee. All right, the final lineup for
those listening at home, is Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.
Joe, Mixon. Chase Edmunds at running back
Deebo, Samuel, deante Johnson, Cooper cup, Davante, Adams,
Stefon, Diggs in at our wide receivers Darren Waller and Rob
Gronkowski as are tight ends. Randy bollock on the by at
placekicker Dallas defense. I think it's pretty fun lineup.
It really is what our full face here.
The Eagles and New England. Yeah, popular.
But I think the lineup is is this to chalky.
Well Edmonds is pretty differentiated Edmonds Bullock.
I think wall is now Steve Dallas T won't be super popular.
This is probably a good example of the cumulative verse product
ownership. You know, this would have a very
high cumulative but I think the product would be held in check
by a few of these. Yes.
Yeah, I think this is good. Allen says unique.
We're good. All right Sean we did it.
We just built the winning line up.
Let's check the prizes here. See how much we're splitting
when this hits believe? It's 100,000 100K up top 25k.
Sean? I mean, I know you don't get out
of bed for anything more than 50k.
But would you be happy with 25k here?
You have to write. I mean you got that you've got
to get comfortable with second place.
Yeah, well Sean, you did make the prediction that we're going
to go, you know, one, two, three, and in these contests.
So I mean, hopefully it. Hopefully it's one of these
lineups tell us. I know you guys have been
teasing a stealing, bananas episode that's dropping
tomorrow. Correct, it is.
Awesome. Anything else coming up this
week at Road of is that people should keep an eye out for Just
have lots of fun content on this particular contest.
We've got our rookie guide that were selling got new episodes.
As you mentioned stealing bananas we got some more OT
coming out. Looking at some of the best ball
listener leagues that we did, which is kind of fun, the
listeners really hammered us which obviously, they enjoyed.
And so some some fun content on a variety of different topics.
They're awesome Gretch. Anything else for you between
now and twenty three hours from now, Now, and we fire this up
again, I'm ready for 23 hours from now, getting hammered and
arguably only about Zeke ownership percentages.
That's I mean, that's what I'm looking forward to.
That's right. This is at this is actually a
good plug from historical anomalies to subscribe to the
road of his YouTube channel. We know Hassan and Blair are
over there doing their show on there.
And I know you guys actually need to respond to a message
from calm, but I know you guys are beefing up your YouTube
presence. So I'll post that link.
In the show notes when we get done, but be sure to check out
road of, has all the great work over there and the new YouTube
channel here, not new. But relatively new Pat, anything
else on your radar? You said, you need to go work on
the walkthrough. I'm working on the walkthrough
you will be out probably probably tomorrow late
afternoon. Okay, we'll see.
Awesome. And then yeah, like I said,
we're capping off, RF F, PC Playoff Challenge week.
Tomorrow night, we're going to have Leone.
We're going to have dink, there are going to be drinks and
beverages flowing. There's going to be, you know,
very semantic, arguments nitpicking, percentages,
bickering, everything you guys could hope for.
We'll be doing that tomorrow at 9:15 p.m. excited for dick to be
The Peacemaker, at all this. Yeah, I'll also say the
ownership projections are in their pin to the disk or
channel. So join the becoming YouTube
premium member and you can get in the ship chasing Discord, see
them. I'm Continue to update them,
I'll probably update them tonight and then again tomorrow
morning, we'll see. I might I'll probably do a
probably do one in the afternoon just to flip guys around by a
couple points. Yeah Ed just confirm that
process, you become a YouTube member, you hop in the deposit
Kingdom Discord that link is down there.
And then in the general Channel, I have directions on how to sync
your YouTube membership with the Discord, then that channel will
pop up. But if you have any questions,
you can tag me in Discord on Twitter will get you guys
squared away. We I appreciate you.
Make sure you have your drinks ready for tomorrow night.
We will see you then keep building.