Tonight on a ship chasing FFPC playoff week rolls on.
Tonight is a pivotal night for getting us set for entering line
UPS into this contest because Pat Crane has been in the lab
working on his ownership projections which are the the
skeleton key to help you figuring out how to build line
UPS that can win first place in this contest.
He's done it year after year and always has an incredible hit
rate on predicting what the field is going to do.
So we're going to go team by team on these tonight, get them
battle tested, stress tested and in really good shape.
And if you guys are in the ship chasing Discord, you guys can
follow along. There will be a Google sheet,
two said ownership projections and also a special treat.
Our friend Mike Leone is going to be joining us for a bit
tonight as well. This is ship chasing playoff
week with Pete, Pat, Gretch and guest Leone.
Let's do it. Pat Fryer, Helmo, Anita Hand.
Job fix your sight. Jamar Alpha play Chase.
You can't handle the heat. It looks like we're finally at
this point. You're right man.
Seeing that alpha play Jamar Chase in the intro and realizing
we don't get to have him in this playoff slate is such a bummer
that the Bengals aren't part of this it.
Really is definitely. Leonie, welcome to to the show.
A little pleasant surprise to have you joining us tonight.
What's up? I'm excited.
This is the greatest week. I get to annoy you guys with
constant messages for the next three to four weeks and I'm
looking forward to it. It is one of those times where
like, I step away, I draft some gauntlet teams, you know, I'm
like, that's good catching up on my playoff baseball stuff and I
come back to like 85 messages. New Leona would go back and
forth for a bed today. Yes, this is this is what
happens. Like we got off the show last
night with this on and Blair that we had a chat going with
them for a while. I mean, you just go down, you
know, infinite rabbit holes when you start trying to think about
this contest. Love seeing comments like this
too. Michael says.
I don't even play FFPC playoff and these are my favorite shows
each year in the playoffs. So even if you aren't playing,
hopefully you guys can find some Nuggets.
I know there's all kinds of playoff contests going on.
We're doing some fun ones over at Fantasy Life with the
guillotine leagues. There's a a chop contest where
it's kind of like the FFPC where you set it and forget it, but
25% of the field is cut down after each week.
So then you have to balance the same things, kind of like
ownership survival, but optimizing for the playoffs as
well. All right, Pat just dropped in
the Discord the sheet to view his ownership projections that
I'm going to pull up on screen here.
I'm going to make a. Copy That's the I I originally
had this be allowed to be edited by no.
Pat. No, this is like two years ago
and people did some crazy things to that sheet.
It was never the same, so it's view only.
Make a copy and then you can sort and filter and all that
stuff. How about this Pat?
I know I kind of said it at the top, but explain maybe for
people why ownership projections are are so important for this
contest. Well, first of all, it's this is
a very top heavy contest in payout structure.
So it's important to finish first.
And as we talked about yesterday, there's going to be
duplicated line UPS. So you know from the, you don't
want to be duped and you like finding a, a unique path to 1st
place is extremely profitable as as opposed to like splitting
3rd, right? You wouldn't want to do that in
this contest. And so you, you're trying it.
You can there's also spots where because it's a contest where
heavy chalk condenses, you can pivot off of some of that with
some smart leverage plays and get yourself a big leg leg up on
the field. So I think that's that's kind of
the pitch for why ownership matters.
Yep, Gretch, any any thoughts on how you think about the
ownership when you start to, you know, lay out these brackets and
kind of sketch out the teams you want to build?
There's, there's so many, right? We've talked we've talked about
this last night, how like it, it takes whatever, you know, 5
minutes to learn and a lifetime to master this contest.
I mean, there's Pat just did a really job of explaining it, but
there's so many ways obviously to then play off of that.
Every team's going to be unique. Every position is going to be
unique. I think when we go through this,
we typically go each year team by team and talk about it.
But there's also the the constraints of each position,
right? Like this year, for example, we
talked about a lot last night, tight end feels like there's
going to be some real constraints on that position
because the top five scoring tight ends and points per game
are not in the playoffs. And so you have and Kelsey's the
next one and then there's a few more and then you get down to
these guys that are a few points behind even Kelsey.
And it feels like one of those guys is going to be the pivot,
right? Or like, well, Kelsey's going to
be played a lot. Maybe it will just be Kelsey.
You know, there's all these constraints just within the
tight end position. And then what those impacts are
on the on the teams, their individual teams, right?
Yeah. And it's a, it's an interesting
contest because some of those pivots, I try to like to
anticipate what those pivots are and then bring the ownership up
on the pivot because it's like the worst thing you can do is be
like the best pivot. Is this because no one's going
to play it and then everyone plays it, right?
Yeah. So I brought up Woolie's one of
the guys that I, I brought up quite a bit.
Sorry, I just said. So Leone, what because I think
the risk and we might have ran into this last night at the end
of the show with Blair Hassad where we basically built the
light up with every pivot possible.
And it is possible to over leverage yourself.
How do you think about that element?
Because you think about this in DFS all the time, like in a
contest like even the Thunderdome where it's like you
want to be unique, but you don't have to necessarily go super off
the board. Yeah.
I mean, you're trying to find the middle ground of like the
odds of all the plays, like actually giving you enough
points to win and being different from the field.
And I feel like playing this contest with you guys last few
years, the thing that we're generally focused on is a lot of
the field either goes way too cocky or then makes like these
Galaxy brain plays that are like super thin and you don't need to
make them when you play, You know, sometimes you can play
legitimately like the third second best fantasy option on a
team at like 2%. You don't need to play, you
know, Keon Coleman at at at at 1% for example, when you could
play, you know, Romeo Dobbs or Jaden Reed.
You know the team's arguably their top 2 wide receivers.
So finding that build ground. And another thing, and I think
we hit on this maybe once or twice last night, we'll probably
reference it a lot that those may be thinner plays are a lot
more viable if you're playing A1 and done scenario, because when
a team gets multiple games, it's more and more likely that the
alphas on the team are going to pass them.
So we talked about like Puka versus Cooper Cup, could Cup
outscore them in A1 game? Sure, maybe.
But then if you had a second game in a third game, what are
the chances he actually outscores him over that sample?
And so that's another. Thing you're reducing variance
with more of a sample size at that.
Point Yep shout out in the chat. We got a few new members here
looking to hop in the discord and check out the sheet and also
our guy Keith gifting 5 memberships.
Appreciate that If you guys have not been in the Discord, the way
it works, if you're a YouTube member, there's a link to the
deposit Kingdom Discord down below.
You hop in you sync your YouTube and Discord or yeah YouTube and
Discord accounts. There's a instructions in the
FAQ. It's really easy and then it
will unlock the ship chasing discord where I have now pinned
that sheet. Pat, can I just jump in a
couple, couple more things just about the contest.
So you don't play two teams at all.
You you just don't select anything from those two teams.
And then you also don't select a skill player including
quarterback in that you don't like play a player in your
lineup from two additional teams.
One's kicker 1 is defense. So if you think about like the
way that works, there's four teams that you're basically not
picking someone on. You're betting against them in
that particular lineup. You're hoping they lose in round
one. That's the best outcome for you.
That means that like if you're building a few line UPS, you're
not playing, you know, four teams on one lineup and then
next lineup you're like, oh, I didn't play the Broncos in this
lineup, I'm going to play them in this other one, right?
You're probably playing suck like and so that this is kind of
a response to the the what is Marvin Mims percentage less than
1% like on all those types of plays, less than 1%.
And the the way to think about that is because most people just
aren't playing the Broncos at all.
And you, this applies obviously to the Steelers.
This is going to apply to the Packers.
This is going to condense possible in the Commanders,
Chargers and Texans. Those teams were they're going
to go to the Stutz because it's like, well, I didn't play the
Texans. So now I'm going to play the
Texans and I'm going to play Dalton Schultz.
No, you're probably going to play Joe Mixon or Nico Collins.
Yeah, that's the big thing Leone hit on when he said like the
second guy. That's the biggest mistake I I
see with some of the lineups and and some of the comments and
some of the chat stuff. It's been a thing in DFS for
years. There's a mistake for me in DFS
for years was like, I always wanted to just find that low
owned guy. But in DFS there's I mean,
because of the constraint of only one player per team.
It's even it's it's more of a thing here where you don't need
to get to those players. There's twelve players in this
lineup and there's only one player per team.
So the vast majority of people aren't going to get off of
Saquon Barkley on the Eagles, you know, And if they do,
they're going to go to A.J. Brown.
And so Devonta Smith and Dallas Goddard are just sitting there.
Yeah, they're not going. To do what I had a 2% in this
like the we're just asking if a couple people like a couple
percent gal brain to Mims in the $35 contest.
People do like a little bit more gal brain stuff, but we're this
content's geared to the $200 one.
That's like what I'm going to sync up these projections with
and see how well I did and in their like, no, they won't like
you. They'll they'll play Sutton or
they'll play the Bron like Broncos fade Broncos kicker
Broncos defense like they're just you're not playing Sutton
and you're spending $200.00 on the lineup, then you're probably
just not playing the Broncos. The.
Other thing with Pat mentioning that, you know there's four
teams that you're fading like either soft fade or hard fade.
I mean six teams are losing round one, first of all, so if
you just take a skilled player on one of the lesser picked
teams that's going to lose and you saw fade one of the other
teams, sometimes you can pick up a lot of points that way.
The other thing too is again, instead of getting like full on
Galaxy brain, sometimes you can play like the clear best player
on a team that people just think is going to lose.
I know Pat just mentioned Sudden might be owned because of that,
but there was the year that we, we always reference to Cam Akers
here that Pat was on Cam Akers and they were like 4540% to win
round one and no one took the clear best play because they
were the underdog round one and they had like a 4045% chance of
winning. So you can definitely find I, I
don't know if I see like an obvious one this year, but
there's definitely sometimes these these matchups where teams
like 40% to win and people are treating them like, you know,
and. They're like 75% faded.
Yeah, it's a little different this year because there's two
huge spreads and so those teams are likely going to get faded
the the ones that are underdogs. I was also going to mention real
quick on the 1% own thing and, and the chat asking these
questions. There's 75 and 7500 entries in
this. We, we learned this with Jake
Ferguson last year. He was like 1.8% or something.
But 1% is 75 teams. So even if you play a guy at 1%
and get him right, you're not like winning the contest
strictly because of that. You're now in a 75 team.
You've made it incredibly more advantageous, but you got to get
the 11 other players right. I mean, there's 75 other teams
that have that player in their build.
And so there's like this trade off of like you, it's it's both.
I'm not trying to act like it's not going to be advantageous to
get a 1% guy right, But it's both a fin play.
And it's also not the like home run that people I think think of
because the Ferguson thing last year, it was like, God, he's
solo on. Maybe it won't even be a
Ferguson team that wins, but there was enough Ferguson teams.
I'm pretty sure he ended up in the winter, but.
The optimal doesn't win. Is is maybe another way of
putting in that? It does work for ways, though,
where like one, what Gretch is saying is true that you know
you're not auto winning. If you get this right, you still
have other things to get right. So if you're going to do a 1% on
play, like, you know, you probably don't want to get too
gal brain with your other picks because the odds of you getting
two of those right is probably very low.
But the flip side is we do see weird circumstances where like
we just think we're dead after two games because the guy went
nuts, or like only those teams can win and then something else
win. But sometimes the.
Winner was not on the winner for.
Ferguson. Was coming here.
Yeah, sometimes the winner is like really far off the optimal,
which is important. Like you don't need to be
optimal, which sometimes changes the way you think too, where
it's like, yeah, I could make this play because it could work
out of my favor. But like, I can still win the
contest even if it, you know, you can win it even if 1%
Ferguson is is there. Obviously if you played
Ferguson, that's amazing. So like, and we we we actually
kind of like talk. I think we played like 2%
Ferguson and we kind of wish we had played more.
So they're out of one. Pair with Reed a little too
much. Yeah.
Is this one of those? It's.
Because that's The thing is that's the point I'm trying to
make. Guys you want to play?
There's just some guys that are like really thin.
It's not just about the Ferguson play itself, it's about the 12
leg parlay of getting all of it right.
And so like we did play a little Ferguson and but you're like,
well, this is a team where we did these things at QB and
everywhere else. And so people think like, oh, I
can just put all the chalk and get this one surprising star
player, but you got to build like a whole lineup that tells a
story for your bracket and all that stuff, you know?
It would be like the equivalent if you're playing salary cap
DFS, say like the Marvin Mims Sutton thing.
And both Sutton and Mims were the Stoneman 3000 and they were
both gonna be like 1 was gonna be 3% owned and one was gonna be
1% owned. You would, you would play
Courtland Sutton, you're like, I'm gonna take that target buff.
Like could you like shave off a little bit?
But like, what are you actually gaining from that?
That's a really good way to put it.
Let's see. Oh.
Yeah, I was going. To say, Pat, let's let's pull
this up. Do you want to start a filter on
your sheet to a team and then? To a team, yeah.
Do you want to go? I have it fairly easy sorted by
should we go 7 to one, 7 seeds to 1 seeds or?
Probably the matchups, I think, right, Matchups with the games,
yeah, that's. Throw me a team, I'll I'll bring
it up. Baltimore.
Pittsburgh. OK that's easy cuz Baltimore is
the number one. And then I might have you just
zoom a little bit, Pat, just so these numbers are bigger.
I think you got a zoom is. It me.
You're right. I'm sharing.
Duh. You're filtering.
I'm sharing, Right? There we go.
OK. You can.
You can adjust the 100% up there too.
That's an easy way to do all. Right.
Oh yeah. There we go.
OK, that worked. All right, All right.
Do we wanna actually stop sharing?
Do it well. Should we talk about the fades
for the total teams first or? I think it's fine to go team by
team and then we can we can do a little macro at the end.
Sounds good. Sounds good.
OK, so Derrick Henry I think will be pretty chalky.
One of the chalkiest players in the field.
I've got him. He's not.
He's like 3456. He's the 7th chalkiest guy I
have right now. What the heck?
What just happened? Oh, you know what 'cause I sort.
Of yeah, better access on there. No, it's 'cause I it's eating
from another sheet, that sheet and now I'm showing everything
all right. Sheets on sheets.
Production value, OK, sorry. So Derrick Henry 55%, Lamar
Jackson's secondary chalk at quarterback, Mark Andrews kind
of the pivot play and then basically nothing else.
And then Pittsburgh, it's going to be heavily faded.
I have them as the heaviest faded team, even more than
Denver. Kicker catching a decent amount
here. Defense Pickens and then I think
Fryer moves basically a bucket for for him and anything else.
Yeah, I don't like the way you have the top three Ravens.
Makes a ton of sense. Obviously, the Titan Premium is
doing some heavy lifting with Mark Andrews and just the
positional scarcity this year I think is going to keep him a
little higher than normal. But because Henry and Jackson
are so strong, like, it's just hard to imagine him pulling any
more than that. And Zay, you know, not being
fully healthy is that. And that's big, yeah.
And the thing on Zay, like you can't, I don't think you can gal
brain into Zay because you would need Baltimore to play multiple
games obviously for Zay to catch up.
And then if they do play, let's say three games, you're really
up against it fighting against Lamar teams.
So that's just, you know, kind of an example of where you
probably don't need to get too crazy, even though someone might
look at it and see, oh, no one's gonna play Zay Flowers.
He comes back and dominates round two.
But I just, you know, I just don't see it on a play like
that. Yeah, and I was looking.
For for years we've done the QB has to be in the Super Bowl
champion. But we learned last year, I
mean, Mahomes played four games and Kelsey was good enough to be
the tight end and Allen was the QB in two games.
And so, like, I mean, even in the scenarios where the Ravens,
like, play two games and Zay has one big game, like the way that
Lamar scores, he's probably in the mix to be the QB as well,
right? In two games or in three games,
especially. Like, it doesn't have to be a
Super Bowl run for Baltimore. And if it's two games, you got
to beat Henry and Andrews, you know, which is, you know, a
tough hill to climb. So you probably need 3.
And then it's probably, you know, Lamar, if not Henry at
that point. But you know, tight end being
weird. I mean Friar mute looks low low.
Maybe he is low. The we'll get to the Kelsey
thing because it's it's sort of like boxes you in.
I think just how unappealing the other chiefs are, but open it
maybe him being too low. The the Lamar thing is that he
would, if he's optimal in two games, one of those games was a
loss to the Bills, most likely. And so now you've you're like,
you really need James Cook or Dalton Kincaid to be going nuts
so that Allen isn't the optimal, which feels a little thin to me.
That's where I think I think out like the winner of that game
will be the optimal quarterback most likely.
Probably, yeah. What total tight end percentage
did you do? I know this is early for this,
but you just mentioned the Kelsey thing and you, you always
talk about this a little bit and I know you've looked at it
historically at those different positions because we've talked
about it in the past years. Did you take the flex for tight
end down this year? So it's actually up from last
year, but last year we didn't really have any options other
than Kelsey. It was like you either played
Kelsey, we didn't have Andrews, so it was a little tough.
It was one 19119% and last year and I have it 126% this year,
which is one of the reasons I don't have anything for
firemouth because it's just like you don't need the title.
It's like you have Kelsey but you know, you also have Andrews.
You have Hertz, who I think will catch some ownership.
It's way down from like 2022. Was it 155 percent?
20/21 was 185%. 20/20/2020 was 152.
That's as far back as I haven't. So the last two years I'm
basically treating as different than the years preceding that,
but right now it's actually slightly higher than last year.
Makes sense? The Pittsburgh also just in
terms of, you know, we're going to look through all the
ownership and everything, but we're also talking obviously a
little bit of strategy and stuff for the people who are thinking
about making teams. Pittsburgh is an example of one
of these teams where because people have an impulse to play
players that they want to play both sides of the close games in
the wild card round so that they lock in a winner.
One of the things we always talk about, we talked about it a
little bit last night is if you on these teams that are likely
to lose if you do get a big game out of one of their skill
players, they can still very easily be the optimal player.
Because we know a minimum of six teams are going to lose in the
first round. A minimum of two players that
are non fades or even soft fades are going to be in every line up
that played one game. And so if you make the decision
to play a stealer, you're already gaining leverage because
so much of the fuel and and it is going to be like this where
the field's going to say, I want to play both sides of other
games where I want to, I want to keep my options open.
But there's going to be a lot of fades.
There's going to be a lot of people playing the kicker and D
in kind of soft fading Pittsburgh.
If George Pickens has 175 and two in a loss, he's a really
good play at 14%. He's literally the best player
on Pittsburgh. And you're getting leverage
there. You know, I mean, that's, that's
what the way this contest works, yeah.
And then if you think about it too, like if I, I was looking at
the, the odds, you know, just looking at like the, the money
line for the games and then what that implied the odds were that
each of these teams wins. Pittsburgh has a 20% chance for
Vegas to beat the Bills. They were, they were +400.
So then you look at like a team like the commanders and their
41% chance to beat the Bucks or the Texans are 43% chance to
beat the Chargers. So like I have like more than
two X as many people fading the the Steelers compared to those
teams that, you know, it's like a ton of people will fade the
Steelers in this, but also like, of course they will.
They they don't have any real chance of winning the game like
it actually. Makes a lot of.
Sense yeah they should be they should be heavily faded but but
I don't think people have any trouble just being like I'm not
playing this like most lives will come pre loaded without a
Bronco or a steeler. You just.
But they're pretty concentrated. I mean, they are it's it's
Pickens or it's potentially Friar move if you want to get to
the tight end. No one's going to play Naji
Harris. No one's going to play Russell
Wilson and think they're going to go on some big run, right?
I mean. There's also like a roughly 40%
chance that one of Denver, Pittsburgh wins, you know,
third. That's current 5%.
You're the math guy bringing us back to reality here.
I got to check my, my, my joint probability distribution.
Maybe it's more like even if you let's say 30 percent, 35%, like
there's probably greater than one in three chance that one of
those teams wins. And I think the the field
perceives it like more like these teams are 10% probably.
What it is you can't if you told me 20.
Percent. I would have thought that was
high. Well, there's a 20% chance
Pittsburgh wins alone. That's.
Crazy the other thing too. That and again like remembering.
I would say that most people putting entries into this
contest aren't necessarily doing big volume.
You know, I'd say like even a lot would be somewhere from 5:00
to 10:00 for for most people, you know, just on average, like
it's really hard to sit down with your second or third bullet
and be like, let me fire up Pat Fryer with they're like, let me
play the Steelers as a win. Like the reason these ownership
stay so low is because it's so many people just doing a handful
of entries. If you had every 100 maxing or
whatever it was like, then that calculus would change a bit
more. Who wants to make that bet on
Pittsburgh to win? No one wants to make.
That no one wants to. Make that bet.
Yeah, You can kind of set it up as a free roll a little bit
where, yeah, you hope, you hope they win, but if they don't,
you're not screwed because somebody's you got to play two
skill players that are losing no matter what.
Everyone's playing players from teams that are losing, you know,
we all are. We just, yeah, we were talking
about doing like Pickens, Andrews, and then you get on to
Josh Allen because they're saying if Pittsburgh does win,
then you get Josh. I mean, it's pretty clearly
going to be Josh Allen. And Andrews makes a lot of sense
in A1 and done as your potential tight end option.
Or I mean maybe even Henry scores 2 touchdowns and a high
scoring loss, but you can play free roll that.
The only other comment I saw in the chat, a few people thought
Lamar seemed low. Yeah, go ahead.
He might be. We'll go to the next game.
I think it'll help me dial in if he is actually low, we can.
He may be low. The the reason he, do you know
what this ownership percentage may be?
Because if Hertz was fully healthy and there was like 0
issues around that, I think that they would kind of pull from
each other. But if we keep progressing
throughout the week and obviously, we're going to get
news, I would think eventually. But if we have that uncertainty
hanging over, then it's like maybe Lamar just starts ticking
up more and more. It's almost like DFS we're we're
getting, we're getting the guy ruled in, but like if he passes
concussion protocol protocol like right before as everyone's
kind of figured out what they're doing, he's not going to be
played. I have him reasonably played
like I think 12% we'll get to it, But that's they kind of want
to see people's reaction to that because if if he is too high,
then Lamar is too low. I think some of that comes from
Andrews, who people don't really need to play a little.
Comes from Henry. Sounds like people think
Fireman's a little low as well. He might be like 2 and Pickens
comes down. I'd probably bet, you know, I,
I, I'd take three points from Hertz to Lamar and take it off
Andrews. Probably, yeah.
OK. But we'll, we'll plan for that.
And I could see just the way obviously the Titan Premium in
just how many bagels and bad games Pickens is coming off of.
There's like no good recency bias with that.
Makes you feel cozy. Like at least with Cortland
Sutton, you can be like, you know, he's had over 7 targets in
the past couple of games. Like you're not getting that
with Pickens right now. Yeah, One other thing I thought
would be kind of interesting, it would be so people are asking
what the highest faded team was last year, and I have that
handy, not Mason Rudolph. Steelers.
With Mason Rudolph, 95% of the field did not play a Steelers
player. So they I'm, I'm going to
include kicker and defense into the phase here, but 95% of the
field faded. The Steelers, two years ago we
had the Tyler Huntley Ravens, 89% of the fuel faded.
Them three years ago the Eagles were 88% faded and was hurt four
years ago. Yeah, I was like, why that's so
high? I've asked when they were pretty
big dogs to Tampa Bay and Brady, I think.
Oh. That's right.
It was when he was, it was like hurts his first year as a
starter. We played a good bit of Goddard
that year, yeah. The year before, in 2020 was
Washington and they were 82%. That's when they were huge dogs
at Tampa Bay with Taylor Heineke.
Yeah. And they almost won that game.
They had the ball in the fourth quarter down 5.
God. There's usually another team
like LA was faded 74% of the time in 2020 New England.
Miami started someone other than two a couple years ago.
They started like who? Skyler.
Tyler Thompson. Miami was 82% that year, Seattle
was 86. Because I think they weren't.
Did they have? Do you know her?
They were just bad. There's bad.
They were just, yeah. Green Bay last year was 74%
beta, so there's usually like not just one mega Theta team but
two. And this year I think pretty
clearly it'll be the Steelers and the Broncos.
I have an 85 Steelers and 80 for the Broncos.
So that Miami year, I think like their DST was optimal when the
kicker was and like. No one I remember that.
Dude, that's right. No one played like everyone hard
faded, no one saw faded my. I think Sanders was actually
awesome too but the DST ended up being optimal.
But just no one played the even the the kicker DST.
They just straight up hard faded everything.
That's right. But it is this this the bracket
feels weird this year. There's and Ben was talking
about it like I don't know, but there's aren't there usually
more big dogs round one or no, I don't know, I guess we have two
big dogs. It's a weird.
It's a weird year for sure. All right, Pat, let's head to
our next matchup. What do you want to dial up?
Let's go to the Eagles. And here I, I, I switched it.
So I'm sharing the Eagles and the Packers.
OK. Yeah, All right, so Barkley, so
I've I've made the change. I, I lowered Hertz from 12 to 9
based on your guys notes. Lamar went up from 27 to 30 a
little more to Damonte Smith at three people were were real
psyched at him at 2. So he he comes up at 3 AT crown
goes to 11, Saquon up to 70, making him the chalkiest player
have projected. And then Josh Jacobs.
I think we'll catch it. Decent amount of ownership.
He's still like pretty highly drafted in the playoff.
Best ball stuff. He just sets the obvious way to
play the Packers. You don't have to worry.
Like no one wants to try to predict which guy.
I mean Craft maybe kept this. Probably high for Craft to be
honest. He's probably more like 2.
And then people, just people will fade them at a pretty high
clip as well. Yeah, I mean, one of the things
about the bracket this year with the Ravens and and Bills both
being such big favorites is even if one of those teams does get
upset, then you have the other one say, you know, we got Leonie
here. Say the Ravens get upset.
The Bills are now a home team against a weaker opponent in the
in the second round. So it's more likely to be Josh
Allen and Casey's opponent just got weaker instead of having
like the Chargers potentially or maybe Houston coming to them,
they get Pittsburgh or whatever. And and now the the Bills are
playing the winner of Houston and the Chargers, which means
even if you want to play something wonky on the AFC side,
the bracket doesn't. It just gets chalkier.
It just sets up for an AFC title game.
That's KC verse the non upset Buffalo or Baltimore team.
That's the way you would just play it in the second round.
My point being, I do think a lot of people are going to, because
you double up on two of the six matchups in the wild card round
with actual players. You play both sides of it.
I do think a lot of people are going to do both of those on the
NFC side. I think they're going to do
potentially this Philly and Green Bay game or either of the
other two games, but maybe the Rams and Vikings are going to be
the most likely with Puka and and Jefferson.
But this one is, I think you're right about having Jacobs there
because people are just like, I'm going to play the AFC side
as being pretty shocked and play the NFC side as being a little
bit tough to predict. Yeah.
And so I think you want to compare Jacobs to you want to
compare Jacobs to like Mixon and Nico on the other side, Mixon,
you know, to the Texans. Like I can take Jacobs or I can
take a Texan, but I got to figure out which Texan I want to
take. Jacobs is like, I think comfier
I or people fade the Packers more than I'm thinking.
That's, that's kind of a, that's one of the things that I need to
like get sentiment on throughout the week.
I feel like you're right on Jacobs.
I mean, they've been playing such boomer ball and like you
said, people have to I the vibes with the Texans are so so.
Bad. Yeah.
No one wants to play the Texans. No one wants to play the Texans
to win, let alone, like you said, have to decide between two
guys. Nixon's on a pretty bad run
after having, you know, a pretty good season before that.
I I think you're right here with Jacobs being pretty high owned
and. Barkley, I wanted to ask what's
the highest in the field? Like last year and the year
before, you were just doing some of the highest fades.
Who were the highest individual players?
Yeah, that's a huge difference this year too.
The highest individual players last.
Year in actual ownership the last couple years.
We had some Devante Adams 90% years.
I'll pull it. Up, yeah.
So last year CD Lamb 87% Christian McCaffrey 79.
Amman Ross 78. Pittsburgh Fade 76, Green Bay
Bay 59, Tyreek 50. So that's everyone 50% or above
and then pull up 2022 quickly. Let's see.
But like 4 skill players. Higher than the highest guy you
have this year. So it's like definitely.
Different dynamic, yeah. And, And two years ago.
McCaffrey 77. Justin Jefferson 77.
Kelsey 74. Eckler 70.
So can I ask you why in your projections are you not going
higher? Do you think that the field is
going to be a little bit sharper?
Are you noticing a trend like that?
Like on the pivots? It wasn't intentional to to keep
kind of keep things low that like, it's more that like, you
know, maybe I have Hertz way too high, right?
Maybe people just don't play Hertz.
Maybe people don't play A.J. Brown, but when you think about
like Gibbs, Amanrah is an incredible play.
So I think Amanrah kind of keeps him in.
He's one of the candidates to be super chalk, but he he's kept in
check. Kelsey's kept in check by like
not really being Kelsey anymore. The people aren't going to want
to click him. They feel like they have to
click him, probably a decent amount, but they don't want to.
But Saquon's the 1:00 where they're the 2C.
They had a great year. He's the highest scoring running
back. Like even Philly DST 4%.
I feel like that's just all going to go to Saquon.
You're probably right that people just don't play.
Don't just don't fade, Billy. I do think the dynamic is
different though, this year than any other year, just in the
makeup of the teams. Like Pat's saying he didn't do
it intentionally. You know, it's just when you go
team by team, even like who you want to play like even
projection wise it shouldn't be there shouldn't be players as
highly owned as they were last year.
That's. Right, directionally, that's.
What he was just describing, like when you go through the
team, yeah, it's just. Weird, Saquan maybe comes high
but like God if you play you know Philly's like 35% to lose.
You know, a running back who doesn't catch passes and a loss.
Yeah. And, and part of it, Ben was
like, I think when like, what are we trying to do?
And like we're immediately like, oh, let's play some A.J.
Brown. You know, I could see us now.
Part of it too is I don't know the Hertz status yet.
So I have it like a little bit, the fate is probably a little
too high. I'm kind of middling that a
little bit like I think that'll come down to like percent.
Most high in the end. Eagles moved to four. 75.
The Packers still still have pretty good odds to make it to
the Super Bowl as you were saying people are.
People are still playing the futures on the Packers.
Like in the in the underdog streets.
People are still drafting Packers because they have the
4th best odds in the entire. I know it's.
Weird. NFC as a seven seed?
Yeah, probably. Hot the Philly fade that that
probably comes down. It is interesting.
I mean, this is like the only one.
Those other teams you named, everything you said made perfect
sense. This is the only one where I
feel kind of like maybe he could push AD, but the Packers being
the opponent does make it a little tricky, right?
No one's playing Hertz then like Hertz is Hertz is 5 four if he
pushes 80 like it's got to come from A.J.
Brown and Hertz. And maybe that maybe that's
people how people play it. But I mean Hertz is a high
scoring quarterback like and he's the two seed.
He's probably overselling it, what he's going to be I.
Think he's probably right being like 7:00-ish but I don't think
he get he gets like some 5 or anything.
Right. I don't think he does.
I haven't. Or I'd be afraid to project it
that way at least. Like, yeah.
Because who else are you picking in the NFC to win?
Like it's, I mean, you're either playing the Lions or like, if
you want to do anything else on the NFC side, you're like, I
want to go to the Eagles, right? Like who's going to make the
run? He'd get four games.
He could, he could score 8 rushing TDs in the playoffs.
Like he could score 2A game for four games.
The, and again, I, I do think a lot like if we get tomorrow, you
know, Jalen Hurts cleared from the concussion protocol, I think
we might start to see sentiment build versus, you know, a lot of
people will just like build a lineup on a Wednesday or
Thursday, you know, and, and lock it in and whatever.
So like that does play into, I think the ownership on the
fringes here with that kind of stuff.
There's a decent amount of love in the chat for kind of like one
off Packers wide receiver stuff. People referencing kind of Romeo
Dobbs big game last year. Obviously Dontavian Wicks earns
more targets without Christian Watson, maybe a little more
Tucker Kraft love. Is there a chance people try to
take stabs on Packers in like a shootout loss?
I think, I think this is we are on ship chasing and we are
surrounded by people who watch ship chasing like this.
The the Packers live series, I think are just it's a headache
and like I've drafted a bunch of play at baseball teams today.
Dobbs doesn't get drafted on DraftKings where like you have
to you have to get through round one.
It's one of six advanced there. And like he's an adventory
piece. He's a pretty solid adventory
piece at at the very last round, you know, 12th round.
He mostly goes undrafted, reads read his cratered like I I don't
think there's just much much interest in these Packers
pieces. Sentiment on Packers doesn't
seem super strong. You think craft because of tight
end being so? That's I had it at 3% and chat
was kind of pushing that down. So maybe I'll bring that up
slightly. But I will just caution too,
there's there's a difference in in chat when you're you know,
there's a difference in being like, I want to play that guy as
a leverage piece because I love how low that percentage is in
actually predicting what the field is gonna do, which is the
goal of this. We'll get to galbraiding more
like the goal is to predict what the field is gonna do.
Yeah, but it is an interesting point.
Leonie was talking about how how boomer they've been.
Sorry, go ahead. I was going to say, I don't know
if it's easy to bring up last year's, but I, I know every year
I'm like, sometimes I think Pat's insane when I'm looking at
these. And then?
Then we get the actuals and like DK Metcalf's like 6% or
something and I'm like, yeah, like like like what?
Like it went even further than than we than we thought.
I know I miss high sometimes on the ones we think are like
really low. It's like I was too high last
year. So last year I thought 9% of the
field would play Jaden Reed and 8% played and.
We were 3% of that. And we were three.
Percent, yeah, to back over, he ran like 50%.
Round Gibbs Gibbs if you if you remember Gibbs had a really hot
end to the fantasy season was like one of the guys you know
you'd see in in the finals and stuff for the best bowl
tournaments. But Aman Rob was the chalk last
year. Gibbs I projected for 20% came
in at 16. So it's just like shit condenses
man, like. It and the Packers are a good
example of that dynamic we talked about at the top of the
show where if you want to play the Packers in a high scoring
loss, then like the one off stuff definitely makes sense
with some of the receivers who've shown a ceiling.
But if you play them as a win or an upset, then it's like what?
Who on this team is out scoring Josh Jacobs over two games?
Maybe Jordan Love in like 2 shootouts, but it's probably
Josh Jacobs in that scenario. When you just said that
condenses thing, and I think you're saying it right on the
Packers, it makes me think AJ Brown's going to get, he's going
to be the 6% dude. It's not Hurts.
Yeah, maybe. Maybe, but I I think too like
the I don't know which of these guys to take thing is like a
real feeling people have like the mix in Nico, you know, the
the three Packers received it. I think people feel pretty
confident in saying, like, you know, if I'm playing a Green Bay
or a Philly loss, I might play A.J.
Brown, I think. Yeah, I mean, part of it is I
really, I, I kind of like after the the best ball season, I, I
don't want to miss low on Saquon.
So I did get him up to 75. That's maybe too high.
Maybe I'm overdoing it. I don't know.
I. Think 75 is probably OK, 8080
might have. 80 is too high. It's nice sometimes.
Is that part of this exercise to like push it and see like where
it starts to feel shaky? And I think Saquon is one of
those guys where like people are going to find that like that
frontier of like what? How much is too much?
They'll be like right at that level.
So and I just, I think he was too low before.
I don't think there's going to be a ton of people that play
them to lose, but I also don't know that there's going to be a
ton of people that play like this way of Hertz lower to go
all the way to the Super Bowl and you're like, well, if they
make a little bit of a run two games or three games, then it's
Saquon. That's what you're telling
yourself cuz it in what's the? Saquon in the Super Bowl, like I
mean imagine it's one of those blow up games in the Super.
Bowl. Sure.
Oh, I promise you the Boomers are imagining that.
Yes, they are. We're.
Salivating on it, Yeah. Oh.
Man. All right, so we go to the next
one. Yeah, let's let's move on here.
I'll put these if you guys are watching after the fact or
whatnot. I'll put the timestamps for all
of the matchups if you guys want to toggle around to specific
teams here. All right, so we'll go.
We'll finish up the NFC, right when we done.
Oh, no, no, we started Pittsburgh.
Yeah, well, whatever. We'll stay in the NFC we're at.
3 1/2 hours. Yeah, wait, too good to speed.
Up. Yeah, we'll, we'll get it.
We'll get these 15 minute segments down to 10.
All right, so Bucky and Mike Evans are going to be kind of
coach chalk. Not a ton of fades of this game.
I think in general, you know, most people play both sides.
Tara Mclaurin, I think pretty big chalk just as like I need.
I want to play a high total game.
He's sort of an obvious click hurts though.
The secondary tight end chalk behind.
I have him over Mark Andrews behind Kelsey.
Because you're not playing the QB there and there's no Derrick
Henry. I mean, like, Mclaurin's a
strong play, but he's not Derrick Henry.
And you're like, I mean, what other option might I have for
Washington? And you're just like, yeah,
well, this will all fill my tight end.
But everyone in the chat last night was like it Ernst is to
play. It's like their first thought.
Everyone came to the same first. Yeah.
I see this and I think, wow, Jayden Daniels at 2% is a smash.
But then I think what Gretch said about the AFC side where
it's like good chance one of Lamar or Allen's get in three
games, like pretty and then you need Jayden to probably go three
games, not just I don't think he can get there in two if that's
a. Lot of good quarterbacks this
year, man, because Hertz is, you know, a third one.
You could say I could play three games too and he'd have to beat.
One thing Brennan knows, the defenses seem high.
One thing I struggled with is that like my initial fade was
like an extra 50% high. Like I think there's lots of
teams where you're like, I don't need to play them.
There's I think that something the field might struggle with is
like, ah, shit, I got to play commander.
Now who do I play? Oh, Terry, that's kind of what
I'm thinking has happened. There's not like that many.
And so therefore, I think the game, the game environments that
look enticing will catch a lot of ownership because you just
don't want to play like half these teams almost.
Do you think people might play the kicker here?
I'm like, hey, the total's high, but I don't want to play a guy
and and they're probably going to lose.
Yeah, what do I have? For the you have an 8, it's not
like you don't have it. Maybe, yeah.
I think normally the field approaches the highest total
game is like, let me have my cake and eat it too.
Let me let me play both sides of this like in the same way and
we'll get to it. Like we're going to see so much
Puka and Jefferson. Like you're going to see a ton
of 1 of Bucky or Evans with McCoy.
You know, like people are going to want to play that as a mini
correlation shootout game. I don't get burned either way.
I shrug my shoulders at who's actually going to win.
Right. It's all the NFC games that
people are going to want to do that on.
They're not going to want to do on any AFC games.
If you want to get you play both sides of an AFC game and pick a
winner in an NFC game. Yeah, the yeah, I see a comment
in the chat. Maybe like that Bucky and Evans
could even combine for more than that.
I could see them combining for more than 75.
Yeah. And so the way that would happen
is people just don't fade Tampa Bay like at all.
And we have seen that like the Lions last year were 3% faded
and they had like a 10% chance to make the Super Bowl.
It's like, I don't care, I'm playing them.
So at the the Rams last year had a 5% chance to make the Super
Bowl and 5% of the field faded them.
So that that is a good note full.
Full fade at 7%. I would I would probably hammer
the under on that for Tampa. Yeah, I need to, I need to
decrease the fades on these guys, yeah.
There's such a chaotic team, even if they lose, you know that
they're going to put up fantasy points, you know?
I mean, people want that. Do you think people treat
Washington at all like that? Or is it Tampa Bay?
They just. It's harder to pick guys on
Washington. I feel like Tampa Bay is just so
easy to. It's so easy.
Yeah, yeah, that's a good note that that Evans and and Bucky
are too low. I just said to get different
play the AFC, you know, pick a winner in this game, etcetera.
But I do I mean, even on the teams where we we play
Washington to win, I do like Tampa's like the the
quintessential team. We're in a loss.
They're going to be, they're going to have a skill player
that gets. Bucky and Mike got to push
probably like 85% combined. Yeah, Yeah, I do think Bucky has
more of it because part of it is like, well, if I'm going to play
them to win, I might as well, you know, take the running back
who projects higher. Look, what am I getting?
I'm getting more games than I'm getting good game script.
In game, I think Bucky should be like 65%.
So I mean the fact, whatever the, the, I mean the fact that
the team the we talked about. It last night, but I think
there's like a spell. I don't.
I don't know if Bucky gets away from Big Mike too much.
No, no, sorry. I think he should be.
I don't. We're talking.
I'm doing the thing that Pete just told the chat not to do,
not in the ownership projections, but like the way
the optimal. I think he should be much higher
than this. Yeah.
So I'm just curious the way the market will play it because when
we talked about it last night, we thought it would be kind of
split. It'll be interesting.
Yeah, I'll tell you what, I don't.
I don't want to go to a party with anyone who put, you know,
builds one line up and has Chase McLaughlin in it.
You know that that's kind of just how.
I I just lowered them off of that, that's enough.
They go to the party heuristic. All right, Yeah, I lowered their
total fade down to 5, which is almost half of KC, but I feel
like that that feels actually corrected as far as what the.
Feels the chat saying Otten 0. Is Otten not going to play?
I haven't been paying attention to his health.
He is low. He's like 5050 I think.
We haven't projected out right now, but I I think it's kind of
a toss up. He practiced some last week so
it's not it would not be crazy if he played.
If he plays, I feel like 1%'s actually low.
Is that weird? He can catch a bunch of balls he
did in the playoffs last year. He was the optimal play for
Tampa last year. Yeah, but I, I mean, it's
probably not getting higher than three though.
You just don't need the tight end though, because like, you're
just Kelsey. You're just like I play Kelsey
whenever. Yeah, and those like Target hog
games for him feel so long ago, you know, for how people
perceive K dot and like they might even in people's head be
like, is he going to come back and split snaps with Payne
Durham kind of thing? You know, I can't see people
being excited about him. All right, so that unlocks some
fade. So I'll probably end up raising
like the the Packers will fade a little bit, but we can I'll do
that after the show. But but yeah, so, OK, so
condense this more so that it's it's really Bucky and Evans and.
You've got it all within 92% on those two.
Yeah. I think that's I think that's
probably right. They might be right by I'd
probably have them a little closer.
Closer You wouldn't have Buck. I was just gonna say that Bucky
55 is. Like 52 Leon, if you want them
closer you gotta adjust the ETR projection.
I did, I already did. We have we have Evans ahead in
points per game. OK, OK, good.
There you go, Basic. We have them basically the same.
We have them like both right around like 19 points per game.
Yeah, looks like you got a but Evans higher cuz he's the
boomer. No, we got to make people think
Bucky's going to be. There, there's a reason we put
these guys as as Co boomer chalk picks last night.
It's it's really hard. You can make really strong
cases. That's where people going either
way in their lineups. Any other thoughts on
Washington? We didn't talk a ton about.
There was a little shock at the Zach Ertz number.
I think that's way more a product of the tight end
position than it is like people loving ertz right?
Yeah, it's zero opportunity. Cost people have to play someone
on Washington like you said, like people want to play both
sides of the high total game and it's just.
And they, they don't want to any higher.
If you're doing like 3 lineups, are you playing Kelsey on all of
them or are you playing them on like two of them and you're the
third one you're like, let's play Hertz and then gets this
off like, you know what? I just have, I struggle with
Kelsey being like 75 percent, 80% like he has been in the past
because he's just not who he was in the past.
He was 74% two years ago, but this year and I don't see that.
I was just going to say, I think the recency bias of what Zach
Ertz did in Week 17 is probably carrying like seven of these
percentage points. You know, like if he had just
come into that without that game, it would be way lower.
And, and again, we're talking about what the field's going to
do. Like Zach Ertz to me strikes me
as the, the, the, the type of play where it's like people
playing, Pat was saying this last night, people playing, but
they're not excited about playing him, but they're playing
because he fits. He fits the parameters.
They want to get a Washington in.
They need to get a tight end in because they decide they don't
want to play Kelsey. They're not excited about
Kelsey. They don't want to fade any of
the other players. You have to fade to play a tight
end anywhere else. You want to go tight end, you
got to fade somebody meaningful. And so they're like, I'll just
play Zach Ertz and we're happy to be under this number.
But then also Zach Ertz scores 3 touchdowns.
So it's going to be fun. Like it's he's not a good play,
but he's going to he's going to catch more ownership than he
should is what I would say at least.
I feel that way. The yeah.
And then the stuff like no, no one's getting, no one's getting
into the running backs on the commanders.
I just don't know how you get there.
No, no, Rob, that's like a little I, I, I throw in 1%, you
know, just to kind of keep keep things in check a little bit.
But yeah, that's where's the key is and we.
Did KC next cuz I kind of do think Kelsey could get out of
control again. OK, yeah, so Casey, the one
seed, let's talk the two one seeds.
Yeah. All right, so Casey, I have 60
to Kelsey, 20 to Worthy, 4% Pacheco. 20 We That's a ship
chasing number. That's that's yeah, I think you
gotta go 10 shift 10 from Worthy to Kelsey.
Yeah, I was gonna say 12 for Worthy.
OK, all right, but but then you guys are gonna be telling me
what a good plate worthy is at 12?
Yeah, we. Are that's all right, I'll give
you 15 then we're. Gonna give you 12.
I'm like, I don't know, Kelsey might just be people aren't
going to fade Casey. I think fading Casey and I get
they're going to have such an easy run.
Not easy, but. He's the.
Obvious, kind of interesting, but it's.
It's what you said about Alan last night, Pat, where they're
going to put a different tight end in their lineup.
They're going to get through their lineup and they're going
to go. I'm just going to put Kelsey in
this lineup and put, you know, whatever I'm going to two V2
and. They're not going to fade them
and they're not, I mean. It it's it's the perfect storm,
right? There is not an opportunity cost
at his own on his own team. It's a really weak position.
Clean path to the playoffs. History of smashing late in the
playoff runs like it is the perfect storm for mega chalk.
You don't need the like if you want to go to worthy, it's so
easy just to go play ertz on Washington or something.
So and that we don't expect Washington to get faded much.
So it's like, I think in order for him to be mega chalk, there
has to be positive sentiment on Kelsey.
Like you have to feel good about putting Kelsey in your lap.
And that's the part like, do people feel good about putting
Kelsey in the laps right now? I think there might be an
element of like Hollywood Browns back, they've got Nuke for the
playoffs. Like I don't know which receiver
to take. So I'm just going to click
Kelsey. I also think the thing we said
last night the the Kelsey did this last year.
We went into this last year thinking he had such a bad
second after the regular season and he wasn't the same guy and
he turned it on. The post season.
He's going to turn on when the lights are brightest.
Taylor Swift's going to be at all the games.
There's all the narratives are there, like he's he's going to
be playing all the snaps. They've been taking him out and
rotating in Noah Gray. It's going to be all Kelsey.
That may actually be what happens.
Like we may need to play some Kelsey.
I I'm like. Oh, we'll definitely have some,
Kelsey. Like we were joking about like
how we're going to push for worthy, but like, I imagine
we're going to end up with like 50% Travis Kelsey.
Yeah, like and that'll be underweight, I think you're.
Right, like that might be a floor on what we play.
I don't know, we'll see. But like, what are you going to?
Do you got to play a chief and who like the worthy play is not
an easy one. It's not Rasheed Rice last year.
Rasheed Rice last year was an easier click than Worthy is this
year for sure. And Pacheco, I think caught some
last year. Yeah, and he was helping.
It might have been the chalk. Let me see.
I don't think Pacheco. Who you guys think?
They they basically were coach Chalk.
It was 41, Kelsey 38. Pacheco last year, Rasheed.
10:00 You got Kareem Hunt catching 2% and Pacheco catching
2, and I don't think you're getting Casey's running backs
catching 4. That's the I still have Hunt.
Oh, I I yeah, Hunt should be 0. I know this is ownership, but
like the one thing that'll be interesting to talk through is
if it's worth soft fading KC at all.
Yeah, we were talking that last night.
Pete Pete's mentioned that their Rd. though is that's one thing I
struggle with because the Baltimore people did that last
year. 23% of fields faded Baltimore last year.
So it's not crazy to think that they would do that, but.
And I remember we looked at some stuff and we're like Justin
Tucker can get there in two games and I, and that's what
happened is Tucker did get there in.
Two and the the Chiefs are that team, right?
Like they play a lot of low scoring games.
They slow the game down, they spread it out.
Like you can see Gabes where Buttker, you know, hits a bunch
of field goals. But part of the thing with the
Ravens is Lamar runs the. Yeah, there's more completion
for the Chiefs. That's part of the issue.
You don't. Baltimore was like, hey, if
Lamar does his thing but only plays two games, then it might
just be nobody. No PPRS out there, Yeah.
Does anyone play Holmes? That's the other question.
Probably people just don't play him right.
I think 4%'s probably. Right, 4% looks right.
That's right, yeah. Some people doesn't feel it's
not a there's. A lot of people saying they're
going to win the Super Bowl again and I want Patrick Malmes
in three games. Not a lot, but there's there's
4%, there's there's not zero I think, but.
Yeah, probably catches some more than fades, more than the
defense and the fade. Yeah.
Yeah, so I got. Maybe.
Maybe Mahomes, I don't know. He can only play three games and
one of Alan, and Lamar's kind of locked into three.
And yeah, he gets the double Super Bowl, but last year he
played four and Alan was the optimal in two.
Maybe people who in the know are like maybe Mahump comes in at 2,
I don't know. Yeah, I think, I think.
No, Mahomes 4 is. I want to put Mahomes at 2:00.
What about worthy? Is worthy too high?
No, that looks right. I mean, he finished the season
real strong. He did.
That's probably Where do you, Yeah.
Where do you guys start to freak out that we have to play worthy?
Is it right around here? Because that's that's where I
think it'll. I don't think I'm freaking out.
We got to play them. I think I agree with Leonie that
you still have to play Kelsey 50% even at this number.
Like I think you have to be comfortable playing some Travis
Kelsey at any. There might be an element of
like, I'm just going to win this contest elsewhere, yeah.
Right. I'm going to bring the fade up a
little. Bit how big of a gap is there in
your guys's projections, Leonie at tight end?
So we have we have Kelsey in points per game, about 3 points
ahead of Worthy, which isn't huge, but none of the other
teams have a tight end that's the highest projected skill
player. How much is the?
Gap. We also have Kelsey, so we have
Kelsey's the top point per game guy on his team and the top
tight end in points per game so much.
Over tight end two there. We haven't basically tied with
Laporta and then a couple point gap over Andrews.
And then, oh, no, no, let me look at the point.
And then we've got Andrews and Hawkinson like 2 points back.
And then you start getting into like.
But all of that is so much harder.
The Porter requires you to fade Gibbs and Almond raw, right?
Andrews requires you to fade Lamar and Henry Hawkinson
requires requires you to fade Justin Jefferson.
And then Kim Cage, you're probably not playing because
it's Alan. And then you get to like Zach
Ertz and Dalton Schultz and Pat Fryermuth.
And that's why I think like the ertz and like firearm youth
could maybe get. And if you look at, yeah, if you
look at teammates, like so Laporta projected same points
per game as Kelsey, but he's projected, you know, two points
behind Gibbs, three points behind Almanra, whereas Kelsey's
winning his team by three points.
Like that's like a net six point.
It's huge. Swing.
Laporta like the Shorty and then Chad saying Laporta, Laporta
higher. I mean, you realize they got to,
you got to make a decision to not play Gibbs or Aminra St.
Brown on a team that you think's playing multiple games probably.
I think you're right on that Earth's ownership, though,
looking at it like he's kind of tied to Mclaurin and there's
just nobody. I mean, you, I don't know, I
don't think the running backs are that much of A disaster to
play. But yeah, you're, I think you're
right on the Earth's ownership. You're going to make us play
some Brian Robinson and I'm going to be OK with that.
No, I don't know. I don't know.
That's the conversation we always have those like these
things look good and then you look look closer and you're
like, it's just not worth it. No one's going to do it, so who
cares? No, that doesn't sound.
Funny, if LaPorte is low it's because like Monty 0 not one and
Jameson 0 not one. I, I think like, I don't think
that people are skipping Amanron Gibbs for Laporta.
I think you're right. Yeah, you just don't need to do
it. You think Jameson's only 1
though? That was the one I was just
going to bring up. I mean, I could see people
talking themselves into a JMO spike even in a loss kind of
thing. Gibbs might be a little high.
It depends like. How do you have several other
good? Offers We're not going to have
clean Montgomery news. Yeah.
So people could really talk themselves into Gibbs, be like,
oh, Montgomery, you know. Montgomery quotes today were
like, pretty bullish. The way he was talking about it.
They're like you trying to pin him down.
He's like, let's just say I'm excited, you know, and.
I think, Pat, everything we talked about yesterday,
everything we talked about yesterday with Gibbs is true.
Like he's going to get played a ton.
But yeah, there's strong alternatives that are going to a
lot like the thing that really consolidated is projected known
as when there's not really an alternative, right?
But that's what I think, Jameson.
Though. Jameson's it's like, I don't
know, it's like a fancy play. It's a pretty fancy.
I'll. I'll say that if these
ownerships are right, we will likely end up with a lot of Aman
Raw. Yeah, Yeah.
That's a great. Play he was on my.
List whether that means you should change the ownerships and
other people will see it. That's that's that's a fat crane
skill set, but. I would say if if like Jameson
is at two or three, then it probably comes from La Porta and
not from like Gibbs or a Monroe kind.
Of thing, right? I might.
Those guys are going to consolidate huge.
I mean, they're going to be 90 like he has it.
Yeah, I think, I mean, I could. I don't know, man.
Like Gibbs just absolutely went nuclear.
And yeah, that finish to this season is going to have people
feeling real comfy. Yeah, yeah.
The question is, how many people care that with Montgomery back,
his projection for, you know, right or wrong is going to be a
little more tame. Some of Shorty Shorty's comments
here in the chat kind of point to why I think this is a fun
contest. He's saying like, takedown ertz
Laporta. Laporta should be higher
takedown ertz like, yeah, no one wants to play Hertz, but they
have to play a commander. And it's like, and I'm going to
play Terry on every team then. And LaPorte is a great play, but
you have to not play Aman Rao, who's also a great play, and
Gibbs, who's like good chalk. So it's just it's, you know,
that's the beauty of this contest.
Hertz is closer to 1 teammate on a team that's favored to lose
round one, then Laporta is to two teammates on a team that's
favored to win. I think you're right on Laporta.
This is this is the thing people really struggle with in the chat
and stuff. But we talked about at the very
beginning of the show, the third best option on some of these
teams winds up being coming in really low, right?
Like the 6% DK Metcalf example. Actually that wasn't a good one
because he was like the first option on that year.
But the same with Jameson, like we you moved up to two, but I
think you're right to push back on that Pat like I don't think
he can actually get that high like.
He has like even be even be charitable with a guy like
LaPorte to say that his ownership is 5%.
And let's say, you know, Leone ran some Sims and it said
efficient was 10% like that. You would have to be playing 10
lineups to just get to 1 laporta lineup in a smart way like that.
That's the kind of thing that's happening.
Like you know what I mean? Like if you want to Yolo it on
your one or two lineup laporta because you like that, Like
sure. But I'm just saying those
situations play out writ large, which is what keeps this down.
And you have to go farther on Jameson, like the, the chat,
like Steph was saying, maybe people play Jim over the port.
I, I think Pat's got it right because I think the reason you
do get to LaPorte on your 10th team, like Pete was saying, is
the tight end question, right? Jameson, you got to be like,
I'm, I'm fading those guys and it's not even really helping.
It's just like I'm putting him in a flex.
You know, it's not helping my lineup constraints, my
positional constraints. That's going to be a hard click.
Jameson Williams is going to be a really.
Hard click. He's a really hard click.
He's the 4th best player on his team in Titan Premium.
You're running the 4th best play on the one seed.
It's like. What if I?
Just to like get into the psychology of it a little more.
Like it's really easy on every single team to be like, oh man,
that really stands out. But when you're going to build a
line up, you're only going to end up pulling hopefully, you
know, a couple of these levers. And the smartest levers are
going to be against like bracket or game level stuff that people
are uncomfortable with to the point where you could get a
really high usage guy like Joe Mixon, you know, that no one
wants to touch because of like the game flow.
Whereas like the opportunity cost of pulling that lever on
one of the Super Bowl favorites with like three other loaded
options, like that's a really scary Click to make on one of
your line UPS. But also to to Leone's point, I
want to circle back to it because people are so concerned
about Laporta and Jameson Alman Raw's sitting there at 26 and
Leone's right. I think if if Pat, if you're
right about this like he's the flat, right.
I mean, that's he's a smash. Alman Raw's a smash at that.
I mean, yeah, that's the guy who jumps out to me as too low as
Alman Raw, which I mean like maybe means I'm projecting him
too, too low. But then you got to take it from
the border. At worst, I'm on on Gibbs like
should be like a coin flip. Arguably I'm on raw should be
favored over Gibbs, but you know, that's subjective for
sure. I do think that'll be closer.
I don't know. It is.
I do wonder, man, like how much are people going to put their
that's in the sand about the Montgomery stuff?
Because I mean, I mean, to your point, Leonie, like the
projection differences in games with Montgomery are pretty
meaningful, especially to the ceiling, right?
Yeah, it's, it's super meaningful.
I mean, Gibbs is like the RV 1, you know, without Montgomery and
then with Montgomery, you know, we talked about in DFS as a GPP
play every week, you know, like because no one was he, he was
never that highly owned. It was just hard to ever get him
highly owned. And he wasn't priced insanely
high. You know, he was priced somewhat
expensive, but not crazy. But I think people in people's
minds, I think they've just like there's you know, they've gone
to Gibbs, there's no turning back.
I think we're projecting like Montgomery at 85% what his
normal role. Oh geez.
Has been. That's higher than I was even
doing in my mind because I was thinking.
Maybe we could be off, but like if you say 75% of his normal
role, then you're at a point where you're talking probably
like Gibbs and Aman raw are projected the same if you say
75% Montgomery. And that also is like.
That's 359 yes like like almond raw you also.
Don't need the running back. You have Henry, you have Saquon,
you have Cook. If you don't play, if you play
Lamar, you have Cook. So.
Yeah, I and I could just I can't disagree with this enough.
Montgomery will be a non factor Gibbs cheerleader that.
Even if he plays at percent of his normal role, it could come
in limiting his touchdowns. Gibbs had four TDs in Week 18.
It could be a situation where Montgomery's stealing TD equity.
Which would be, we've seen Montgomery play through Q tags,
come off injuries, and Dan Campbell puts the goddamn ball
in that guy's belly. He does it at the goal line.
Like if David Montgomery is active, he is fucking playing.
Like you are so wrong if you think he's sitting on the
sideline because Gibbs blew up with him out.
Gibbs blew up with him last year.
I love this binking guy. The chat just seem to just show
up. Yo, Barkley and Henry are Musk
for me, yeah. I love it.
Both of them let's.
Keep moving, it's been a while on the on the bye week.
Team I think so I'm I'm I'm starting to break here.
I'm I'm moving gives down slight, I think.
Let's see. Like that, That looks fairly.
I mean, they could. That looks fairly good to me.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think you're covered too on
being like like you could be wrong 10 points either way, but
the other way I think there was like only one way you could be.
There's only one way I'm wrong. Yeah.
All right, let's go to Should. We finish off the NFC.
Yeah. What did we do?
We did the the we need to do Minnesota.
In the ring, yeah. This one was.
Voice of the Boomer opto. All right, so it's like sort of
kind of weird, but Puka's down here at 60%, Chiron at 18, and I
don't know why it's doing that. And yeah, Jefferson, big chalk
on. I mean, this one's easy.
Yes there at least with the Rams like I don't.
This seems like very solid to me.
I can't really imagine people getting to any non kyron or puka
unless I'm I'm just missing something about the boomers
having nostalgia for Cooper cup. I feel like Kyron's high puka at
60. I mean he had like 1000 yards in
like 11 games. He went insane.
Was that crazy? I do think, you know, I mean,
Korum got hurt, right? Like it's going to be like 100%
Kyron, so I get it. But yeah, I feel like if I'm
hand building, I'm like, I'm just going to play 100% book and
a cool and just you know, who's here.
He gets so many targets, he's their whole team.
And they're like, he's the higher projected guy, so like,
he's better in multiple games, but then you also would want the
receiver in a loss. So yeah.
They're minus one O 5 money line and the Vikings are -115 it's, I
mean, it's a 1 1/2 point spread, but the money line is basically
telling you this is. AI don't know if this is and
again, I don't know if this is just me, what I would do versus
what the field. 'S gonna do No, I think I mean
just in the drafts today the puka is really high like he's
he's coveted in these best bowl draft.
I mean, he's almost going, he's going like near Jefferson at
this point, so. And there's no battery.
Later Jefferson. Right, frankly.
Yeah. Yeah, agreed.
And not only is he like a better play has been producing better,
but the options pulling away from him are not near as strong.
I think, as you know, I, I find like Addison to be a more
compelling dart throw than Cooper cop, you know?
I agree with that. Addison's outscored Jefferson in
many games. He also has hot who can who can
wrap up catches. What's that?
You also have Hawkinson, who can rack up catches in tight end
premium. Puka's the ultimate comfy click.
He's the guy that I think we talked about it with Debo in
previous years. You feel good about his role in
a loss. You feel good about him being a
huge part of a Smash game. There's nothing uncomfy about
Puka. You don't feel any opportunity
cost? So one question, Pat, in terms
of like teammate differential, we have Aaron Jones, Jefferson
Gap, the same as Kyron Puka do. You yeah, you think the Aaron
Jones stuff with like his his availability last week and then
like like Ham Akers getting that run.
I think there's like a fairly significant like, you know, like
the like a, a mental tear that people have these guys in.
They might be legitimate too. We might be like over projecting
him. Like Kyron is like a locked in
running back one all season. Jones, you can take that 1% for
Cam Akers and and get Aaron Johnson. 3% pretty.
Easily. That's true.
But you're right, Kyron's like, we know he's getting 100% of the
touches, but there is absolutely no doubt.
Whatsoever and if I'm coming off Jefferson like or puka, it
better be to someone who's like getting work, you know?
Yeah. It might be that Addison's a
little high for what the market does and that aren't.
Maybe that like Addison, Hawkinson and Jones should all
be 5. I don't know.
I had a lean toward Jones last night too in my my first read
and then you guys are telling me the hell stuff was scary.
I had a similar reaction to Leone last night.
Yeah, I think we might be over projecting him, right.
I do think he like he catches more passes than Kyron.
So that's part of the reason we have it closer even with like a
worse role, I think like hocket. What don't you?
I mean I kind of would think Hawkinson would be played more
than Addison just for the Titan premium stuff, but.
Like just hasn't like Hawk has been felt like more like
Friarmouth then he has a guy that can spike and and carry the
day for you I feel like. Yeah, that's going to be an
interesting one. I mean, my read on Addison is I
was just about to say it, but like first, first round pick
year two, guy scored 9 touchdowns, scored 10 touchdowns
as a freshman. It's like a superstar like
Jordan Addison's like one of the top 20 best receivers in the NFL
and we're just like not talking about it.
He could score. It's like Devonta Smith and A.J.
Brown, but no one, no one treats him that way.
So. Yeah, I, I, I love like Addison
in the loss scenarios for, for Vikings is, you know, just for
our own stuff. Yeah, I kind of like it too,
because I think he can, he can. He's got the the air yards he
can hit for big plays. The one thing when when we went
to this, my first thought was the fades and Pat, maybe you can
correct me on it. And maybe this is like pretty
logical for them. But somebody in the chat pretty
quickly said that they felt more comfortable playing both sides
of this than Washington. Tampa, because it has superstars
and because of the close spread relative to the high over under.
I kind of feel like people are going to try to jam both sides
of this even more than that because the commanders are tough
to play. Maybe people just play the
commander's kicker and it's like a mistake the field makes, even
though there is a really high total in that game.
Yeah. I.
Mean so that's, that is like a big question because OK, so
actually I'm looking here the let's see now the the live line
for Tampa Bay still -3 and it's, it's Vikings -2 1/2.
No, then it went down to -1 1/2. OK.
But they're still favored. So the Vikings are favored.
The commanders are getting three.
Yeah, people probably just pick the bucks more than I have it,
and then they just don't fade either side of this game.
The AFC do do the Steelers Broncos fades are going to be,
but that that's kind of what I meant with like the the bracket
being different, I guess like we have three games in the NFC that
everybody wants to play. Yeah, yeah.
I need to bring down these two. Huge spreads in the AFC.
I think the total fades on Broncos.
I agree with you. And Broncos and Steelers are
going to be up there with the years when we had the backup
QBs. I mean, they're going to be
absurd. I, I have.
So I brought him up as we've been going, I've opened up some
fades and I've, I've sent some of them to those guys that the
the Steelers are 89, Denver's at 85 and now Pittsburgh was 95
last year, which maybe they're 95 faded again very close to
that, but. It's so hard to project that.
What do you have for the Washington and Tampa?
I had 94 last year as a projection.
It was nice. Wow, made this guy.
Look at this guy, Washington and Tampa, what do you have right
now for them, for fades? So Washington, I only have 29
faded and that's too low. That's I need to get that up
into the 30s or even low 40s maybe.
So, yeah. So that was down.
That was 21st. I'm telling you, Washington
kicker man. Double digits. 22 for the
Vikings. You're not.
I have 20 for the Rams and 22 for the Vikings.
But Vikings is probably, Vikings is probably in the teens and
yeah, Rams is probably in the teens.
So that's going to unlock like 6 from each.
So 12 more to the command. Fiona, you just said Washington
kicker double digits. Yeah.
Yeah, that's, I think that's right.
He's going to be the chalk kicker, dude.
People are going to just play the kicker in that.
Game. They're the they're what the are
they the no, they're not the biggest underdog.
I guess Green Bay's the biggest underdog on the NFC side, but
they're the second biggest underdog.
And if they win, they would have to play Detroit most likely.
And it's a high total, but it's the skill players aren't as
juicy as LA, Minnesota or Tampa Bay.
Wait, so who's the chalk kicker you think?
I don't know if he was like chalk kicker, but I was saying
double digits on Siebert, Siebert, Siebert.
Somebody in the chat said he's not even the kicker anymore.
Or or. Maybe that's the problem?
A different team, I think it was.
I think it was Washington. Neil Farley in the chat earlier
was. Like we don't have to like a
kicker ownership. That's Google Watch.
That's a real problem. He's not interested in reserve.
Yeah. Cyber's way too high.
So now, not even kidding though I feel like that probably keeps
the ownership down people. People don't like these these
quick kicker swaps. So it's, I think Dan, I think
it's always been kicking for him for like several weeks, several.
Weeks dude, I you know what the sad part is Takes.
Games for them. I wanted to avoid this exact
situation so before I put the kickers in, I googled like
commander's kicker and like just like double checked all the
kickers and or first checked them in some cases to be honest.
And yeah, somehow that slipped. Didn't.
I didn't. Notice.
It's week 12. I I Google, I googled news.
This and the second article is called Jealousy may have cost
Commanders loss to Cowboys. Did kicker Austin Seibert rush
back from his injury too soon for the Washington Commanders
out of fear he was losing his job?
So I mean, oh, man. All right.
Anything else here? Can we move on to the next?
Lancey, we've we've done it. We've done enough.
Yeah, let's move on with that. Give me.
One second, I'm, I'm lowering the, I'm doing a little
adjustment. Yeah, let's go to the AFC.
Where do you want to go? We give you Broncos, bills.
Yep. We'll get Leonie's boots on the
ground. Take here.
Get inside a Buffalo Bills boomer mindset.
So I have Allen as the clear shock over Lamar because you
like, would you rather play Cook or Henry?
Most people are going to want to play Henry.
Mark Andrews will be played more than Kincaid.
So it's just like natural that you'd then go to Allen, who's
also going to be home against Lamar when they likely play each
other in Round 2. So I feel pretty good about
this, but obviously curious for what you guys think there.
And then Sutton and and a bunch of nothing over on Denver.
I think that looks pretty good on the bill.
My initial instinct was that's high on James Cook, but there's
just literally nobody else to play and I it's hard for Alan to
get any higher than you have on. So that's probably right.
I could see maybe people taking more shots on the wide
receivers, but I don't know if it would get too.
Thank you. Just a little bit Shakur, I
think maybe Shakur should be like 4%.
I know we'd need to get through this, but I got a shout out
Chris Diaz for the kicker chasing reference ride suck up
in the exes. Was that ride suck?
Up, I think it was, yeah. Shakur up we.
Just did that. We just did that.
In the new down Kincaid and cook or cook.
Probably, maybe, maybe a touch of both.
Yeah, OK. Yeah, I'm, I'm with Leonie.
I think Shakur is going to get played some.
How did you really? I mean I know the that Jefferson
and Addison are sick but I I I feel it feels weird to me to
have Kincaid higher than Hock. But maybe maybe it's just my
personal vibes thing. I agree with that too.
I don't think anyone wants to play Kincaid at all.
I was on Kincaid. I don't want to play them.
The people who didn't play that. Is that you're not You're not
tight end stuff. Liam told us last night he's not
even playing him because he has to play Allen in all his teams.
Like the Bills homers aren't even playing him.
Who the fuck? The Bills homers aren't playing
him, all right? You're right.
You're right.
Yeah. Yeah, no one.
No one. Even the people who like it,
Gabe can't talk themselves into kin, Gabe.
I mean, we're, we're screwed. I mean honestly it just means
it's going to cook though I think.
Yeah, I mean, Cook is so clearly the second play in a big way
when like we were talking about Aman raw then compared to
Laporta and Jamo, like James Cook compared to Kincaid and
Shakur is is an even bigger gap than those kind of 2nd to
thirds. Yeah, yeah.
So I mean and then and then fades and Sutton I think is
basically on the other side. Yeah, yeah, there's.
I mean. You don't even have Mims on the
chart. I think that's correct.
Yeah, I mean, right. I didn't even include them.
It's disrespectful. But what are you going?
To play Javonte Williams and. I'm going to Leonie.
Is there going to be any? I mean, it's it's so cold on the
East Coast, you think there's going to be people who are not
going to want to play kickers with a low team total as massive
dogs out in the Buffalo weather. Yeah, I, I, I think we've seen
in the past, right, that sometimes the field does not
spread out, the soft fades that much.
That's right. Like we've seen some really
heavy stances. We mentioned I.
Have not been getting. A year like Miami, DST and their
kicker were like a combined like 3% maybe.
I would bet the house on what Leonie's saying.
The under 20% kicker and D for Denver, their hard fate is going
to be higher than 65. OK people.
Because people still want to believe that their kicker and D
can be optimal in two games. They're they're just going to
say the Broncos can't win. I'm not putting a single Bronco
in my team. It's not.
Even too high as well, potentially.
But especially the Broncos. Dude, no one believes in Bonex.
No one's believed in this team all year.
I've made a killing and stealing lines betting on them all year
because like, no one wants to fucking play this team.
They think the Broncos suck. Yeah, yeah.
And honestly, the fade might also just be higher period on
this team. Yep.
That's one thing. That's that's where people
probably just play more Vikings, Vikings.
I, I think Denver DST is going to be a pretty good play.
Like even in a loss, we know that they could put up a score
that's the highest of the, you know, the soft fades, Yeah.
And the fades all. Right, where to next, LA?
Yeah, Chargers and Texans here. This one's more fun because I
think there's lots of different ways this can go all.
Right. So this is one of those things I
feel like you'll probably want to fade this a little bit more,
but it's like you you kind of run out of teams to fade.
So it creates a situation where Mcconkey, I think will be pretty
big chalk and he is going like in the playoff basketball stuff.
He's he's moving up. Yeah.
So that that made me feel like. And then I I may have Nico too.
I may have this gap too close. I think Nico's probably higher
than Mixon by more than this margin.
The Chargers are kind of like Rams.
Light and Lad is puka and and Dobbins is Kyron.
I feel like people are going to view Mixon similar to Jacobs,
and you had Jacobs pretty high. It's just that Nico, but.
There's no Nico on the on the Packers.
Yeah, I again, the Houston vibes too are just so bad.
Maybe that's just Levitan in my ear each week.
No, you're right, I think. No, they are bad.
The vibes are bad on Houston. That's another one where like I
was in on this and I don't want to play them.
I think that's a meaningful thing.
Like it's So what happened to Kyle Pitts?
The people who were out were like, I don't want any action on
him and the people that were in were like, I don't want any
action on him. And then no one fucking wants to
draft him the next year, right? Or, or play him.
Do you think Schultz gets off 0 at all or no?
I mean maybe the one but like. I don't think he's like the
craziest play, but. I don't know.
We've seen him do it before in a loss, although his role has been
way less than it has been in years past too.
Right. Yeah, it's not as good.
It's I want to go higher than one.
I just think I might put it at 1:00.
Yeah, it's a good point because there's no other receivers.
They've all gotten hurt but I just feel like Nico or mixing
our fade. I like Pat how you kind of have
this spread out because I do really think it's going to be a
kind of choose your own adventure across the way this
like almost what you know, 20% split across five guys,
including the, the fade and the the soft fades.
Yeah, and the soft fades probably getting played higher
here than in Pittsburgh and in Denver, well.
You identified this as the soft fade bowl where people fade both
sides of this game. Yep, with soft fades and I think
that there we will see some of that.
Yeah, especially, especially I just think people aren't going
to play Houston. I'm probably going to.
That's one of the things I'm going to try and do is get the
the Rams fade down, the Vikings fade down and the Commanders and
and Texans fades up a bit. Honestly I feel like the
commanders will get faded significantly less than the
Texans where it's like it's way more fun to play both sides of
that game. It's just harder to pick a
player on the commanders. I think people want to play the
Chargers to win. They do.
People want to put there, there's going to be edge in, you
know, just closing your eyes and playing some, some Nico and some
mix in for sure because they play two games.
Chiefs. That's why I I told told you
guys before the show that I had to spend 2 to 3 minutes tilting
that last year we were overweight Houston skill players
and their DST and kicker were the best plays in two games.
I'm going to say it this year they're going to win and Nico or
Mixon will be it. Won't be their DST or kicker
this time, yeah. Not going to fade in two games
this time. This this game two years ago
when the Chargers were in the playoffs, and this was probably
instructive, the Chargers were, you know, I think slight
favorites in that game. I projected 18% of the field to
fade the Chargers in 19% of the field to fade the Jaguars who
they're playing. 6% of the field faded the Chargers and 39% of
the field played the Jaguars. And this feels kind of similar
where I think people are just gonna be like, Chargers win,
Chargers win, Texans lose. And that and probably
overconfidently, right? Yes, Steph's asking about
Dobbins feeling high. He's the one that I've had a
really hard time with when I didn't I I try to do a little
run to the boomer opto I mentioned yesterday.
I actually threw Dobbins in at first, I was thinking people
might think the charters might have a little run.
He's clearly their lead back. And yet I kind of feel like I
understand what she's saying. You guys have made a totally
great case that it's going to be, I don't think he's going to
be their chalk piece anymore or anything.
It's going to be Mcconkey. But I mean, are people going to
tell themselves that the running back is good in multiple games
or and Harbaugh, you know, this is the way they'll win in the
playoffs kind of a way? Or is it just too high?
I could. I could see Dobbins coming up a
little bit. I I like the Dobbins percentage.
Well, I brought him down like so.
I had it at 10 and 55. I liked it at 10 but OK.
I didn't seem. Right.
I, I this is the I wouldn't have, I wouldn't have brought
Dobbins years ago. Cam Acres was 10% that year.
I want to say like this is the Acres play.
He's the Dobbins. Might be the acres.
Play Wow. Yeah, I think Jacobs might be
the Acres play. But Jacobs is 50% owned, yeah.
Well, yeah, he's not the play. Is he because I think the acres
my initial. You're the one making the
ownership projections. You.
Tell us. You said this back, Ray got his
own. But but when I with the Acres
thing, I remember lowering him and lowering him in the
ownership. I'm like, people can play Acres,
people can play acres and then lowering him and lowering him
and be like, we got to change this guy.
That's true because I think we even projected acres at like
25%. Yeah, yeah.
And we were like this is a smash.
And had we projected him at 10%, we would have and he.
Wasn't cup that's. Right.
Shoved if we. But there was cup on that team,
right? That was.
Popular people were injured. I don't think cup was on the.
Team was there anyone I'm. Pulling it up.
I think there were some shitty wide receivers.
OK. I think he was on the pre the
IT. Was like all the spades.
OK. There were some crappy receivers
I remember playing. Maybe Robert Woods was on the
team, I don't know. I think it was pre the cup
breakout. Yeah.
So, yeah, OK, here it is. So I had acres projected for
39%, came in at 11 percent. What?
You did a terrible job, Pat, what are you doing?
Yeah, I'm sorry. We liked one at 39% was like the
crazy thing. So maybe you're right.
Maybe the maybe the Acres play is Jacobs.
Yeah, I mean, it's like chalk that doesn't materialize on like
a on a live dog that runs their offense through running back.
Like to me, it's the Jacobs. And people just end up fading
them. This is when Jacobs was like,
really good too. I mean this is.
Real weird. Maybe Bucky Irving looked good.
But the. Irving to Jacob's play.
Here's the acres. No, Buck, no, not even close.
It's. Not it's, it's not.
No, not on. 11 The acres guys. Bucky might come in at 3.
We better play them in every single level.
The This is called insider trading.
I, I sent you guys this stuff ahead of time, but it's kind of
the Bucks had the highest NFC team total in round one and the
matchups that they could potentially play the rest of the
way, like all are probably going to have decent totals.
The AFC is where you could get some potentially gross total
games. There's like very likely to very
unlikely to be any Dome games after Houston Lac in round one.
It's outdoor cold stuff in the NFC.
You've got Minnesota Dome, you've got Rams Dome, you've got
Detroit Dome. Obviously it's the one seed
you've got Tampa Bay and not, you know, the Northeast.
So yeah, the scoring environments are just good in
the better in the NFC. For sure.
Yeah, the chats not liking 55% Mcconkey.
There's several in a row. Tell me where to put a chat.
No, no, no, no. They're, they're saying they
don't want to play it again. I I think.
It's a really good. Reaction.
Yeah, you can, you can say that that's too high and I think I
agree. I think Dobbins should be come
up and some other ways to play it.
But I I think the field's going to feel very comfortable with
LAD. I would say maybe more soft
fade, but you already have it at 25% soft fade, so.
That's good. I think I'm going to take it
down because I think that people play the Chargers to win this
game. I don't think you I I think
Pete's points right there. That's what they're saying.
But I I was saying the sentiment is that's too high.
Makes me think it's maybe a nudge too high.
I don't think you can push that much more on Mcconk.
I mean, I don't know. I.
Guess it's push more to Dobbins I think, but maybe I don't want.
To Dobbins, he could be at 14 or something and. 55 is a lot, man.
You would like Jefferson at 60, you know, like that's.
Yeah, I wouldn't go higher on Mcconkey.
I I don't plan to go higher, but I do think probably people play
the Chargers to win this game more than I currently have it.
Well the other thing is 2 I think.
His mixing the Acres play. Yeah, the Acres play.
Dude, Mixon kind of is the Acres play.
He's totally the Acres play. No, no.
For he's way more than that. But I was going to say the other
reason on Mcconkey is because people again, kind of feel like
they can middle it where it's like, oh, if the Chargers go on
the road to the Chiefs and they're behind and they're
having to trail a lot, maybe Dobbins gets scripted out.
But like lads going to be a focal point of basically any
game script for the Chargers. And I think that gives it a a
coziness that keeps him pretty high.
Yeah, I think I the thing about LAD is that like, I think a lot
of people are just going to be like, well, LAD fits and they're
not. The ownership doesn't show up
next to the guy. You know you you can lie to
yourself when you build this. They won't be that joggy.
What percent of the field is even considering ownership,
right? Maybe not considering, but like
considering past like a very surface level.
Or doing it correctly because like, a lot of, like, Pat was
just saying they're like, yeah, no one's going to play Vlad
Mcconkey. And then everyone plays Vlad
Mcconkey, right? Yeah.
I mean, we're gonna play some Lad Mcconkey, guys.
Obviously, yeah. Yeah.
So yeah, and I don't think if anything, I know there's a
little bit of enthusiasm for QJ coming off of another big game.
Obviously Gus is a zero. They just and they just signed
Zeke. QJ 13 catches, 186 yards.
You guys think people actually dot themselves into that a
little bit? I think 18 surprised the fuck
out of me. I mean there was multiple DJ.
Comments in here. Yeah, three percent, 4%.
That's higher than we have like you know, Jameson Williams and
some other secondary receivers. So that that seems well, seems
about right. I don't think we could get too
much higher than that. No, Gibbs, I mean, Gibbs versus
Dobbins, Amanora versus Mcconkey, Yeah, just that.
True. The Porter versus Dizzly, like
QJ might just be a product of like, I want to play somebody on
the Chargers and he could score touchdowns.
Yeah, I think people probably go to Dobbins more.
It's like easier to imagine him just like scoring touchdowns and
stuff. That was my initial boomer
chalky take. Yeah.
Yep. All right.
What else do we got? I think that's it.
We did did it. Oh wow.
You could show the tops of like a couple possessions maybe.
Yeah, maybe you could just include everything by and and.
Sort yeah, so let's here's here's where the fades are.
Now this is short a couple percentage points as I re dole
out some stuff. But you see, I got Tampa Bay way
low, Kansas City higher, you know the one seed.
But it's like, well, maybe they lose around too and I don't want
to pick it. I don't want to pick Kelsey on
this team. I'm going to bring Minnesota
down. I'm going to bring the Rams
down. Some that'll go to Washington,
some will go to Green Bay. But yeah, this is where things
currently stand. And then let me sort.
You. What do you guys think?
Sutton's higher own than Pickens.
I think it's more about like what team people fade and then I
think like Fry with maybe catches one or two and there's
no one else on Denver. So I think, yeah.
Shouldn't Denver be higher total fate than Pitt?
That's what you're saying, right, Mike?
I was just curious, I guess we do have, we have sudden
projected higher than picking. So like, if people are thinking
on line the same lines what we have, maybe it's right then,
yeah. I think with the Denver.
Higher, yeah, you might be. I mean, I did it based on the
line, which, you know, it's like a point.
It's different. Ravens are 9 1/2, Bills are 8
1/2. But.
And the finishing form for Sutton and Pickens just couldn't
be any further apart to how people.
Feel about. Those.
Yeah, good point. What do you have as the top like
other like show the top of the tight?
End. Yeah, I need to scroll over
tight end, OK. That's the main one.
I'm I'm really curious about Kelsey.
And then we have Yeah, it's Kelsey.
What's the total here? The total is 122%, which is like
3% higher than last year, so basically the same as last.
Year, but meaningfully lower than the previous years.
We're all. Yeah, previously was 155 in
twenty, 22185 in 2021 and then 152 in 2020.
Makes sense. I think that's good, yeah.
How do you have QB? Man, look how weak this tight
end. This is the weakest tight end
we've I think I've. Ever had, Never had.
Yeah, it's honestly probably still a little too high.
I'm going to go steal percentages.
From people, I think I was thinking maybe more like 115 on
the. Yeah, I think you're right.
I just like need to figure out who it comes from.
Yeah, because individually they all look pretty good.
Right. 122 way too high one O 5% like you just read that three of
the four last year's have been over 150 like there's 4 flexes
in this contest yeah, we're talking 115 as really low like
that's like the people push it people.
You know, when I when we went through people are like, oh,
little fryer move fryer with two, you know, like you asked
about Chelsea, like. It's what it comes down to, the
Kelsey stuff, I think kind of like if Kelsey 72, it's probably
what you have is probably right. But I'll take the Disley one
away and stuff. Yeah.
No one's playing Kincaid.
Yeah, well, Kincaid's at 2, I mean.
Yeah, you got him. Right.
No Kincaid. You got to keep Kincaid at.
Two yeah, Brett, you've got, I missed this in the chat.
How is Kincaid not higher, Brett?
I tried to help Brett earlier. He came in like halfway and
doesn't understand the contest. I honestly watch the show
yesterday, watch from the top of the show.
We talked about a lot of these dynamics and we did some
examples too, of like why it's really hard to get to higher
ownership projections on some of these Fringe guys.
It'll make sense, I promise. Yeah, you look at them in a
vacuum and they all seem way too low.
And then you start doing the exercise that Pat's doing, and
it's like, oh. That's why this is the whole
show we do once, you know, during the week.
It's such an important way of thinking through it.
Yeah. And your work here is so awesome
my. God, I mean, this is. 82% Lamar
and Allen and you know, it could be light as to what it should
be. It could be light.
Should not not as an ownership projection wise?
I mean, people do tend to gal brain stuff a little bit at
quarterback. Like, you know, I, I had no Goff
and Herbert look like I'm like I'm not playing any of that.
But like there usually is some people who play like the the off
the beaten paths quarterback. So last year Stafford was was 1%
owned. Flacco was 2% owned, Stroud 1%,
Purdy 5 DAC 8I projected DAC two, he came in eight.
I protected Purdy two, he came in five, projected Placo Zero
came in two, Stafford Zero came in one, Stroud Zero came in one.
So that's like one thing I've like, I want to take these guys
to 0, but I don't think they come in at 00.
I think what you have is probably about right.
I mean, we talked about the hurts thing hurts.
If depending on the news, maybe be more like 6:00-ish but.
Based on what you just read, Baker's going to have one like
some of uses 0 that'll. Baker's probably going to have
one. Darnold's probably going to have
one. He might have one.
Yep. The rest are probably good at 0.
Yeah, those are good calls we have.
People who play golf, I definitely.
I'm sort of interested to see some SIM stuff with like Detroit
Coast Super Bowl. Like if it has golf.
He's had those spread out, big TD games.
Let's see, yeah, it's just going to be really hard for people to
get to other quarterbacks. And then the third quarterback
hasn't even cleared the concussion protocol yet.
The 4th hasn't shown a ceiling all year.
I mean it just it gets thin so quickly.
I do wonder, I mean, I, I Daniel's looks fun.
Obviously Hertz looks fun because they're mobile even more
than Mahomes. I'm like, is Herbert a play?
We were just talking about how like the Chargers are hard to
play. Like what if they go on a run?
I think you won, Mcconkey. I mean, you know.
I could see Herbert in three games right where it's like you,
you get the Dobbins game, you get the QJ game, you get the lad
game kind of thing. The the really hard part that I
keep coming back to is what Gretch said.
It's just highly probable one of Lamar or Allen gets three games
and it's like there's definitely ways like I I could see it more
with like if Lamar's the one that gets three games and
Derrick Henry's smashing, Herbert can definitely beat
Lamar for sure. With Alan it's a little tougher
to see if you get 3 Alan games. Yeah, Herbert, I think you got
to play him all the way to the Super Bowl and say that he threw
3 touchdowns in the Super Bowl and he gets the double points.
I mean, that's the only way it really works.
And even still, it might be Alan or Lamar because it'll be one of
his teammates catching those TDs.
Like that was like, Ben is Mcconkey.
Like it might be. I think you're right, Leoni.
It's it's, I mean, the way that Buffalo and Baltimore match up
in the second round, you got to feel like it's.
I, I, I'm definitely, I definitely want to see how that
sends out because like Jayden, we have Jayden.
I mean, Jayden at 2% to me is the one that's like, but God,
yeah, I just then you got to play him into.
You need, you need the Ravens to beat the Bills and then lose to
the to the Chiefs and then have it be Henry.
Your Henry Daniels beats. You know, they're flex.
Plus Lamar. Yeah.
And Allen only plays two games. Certainly plausible, yeah.
Yeah, but Washington's the. Baltimore.
Yeah. If you're going concurring at
quarterback, you want Baltimore over Buffalo.
There's way more. Options, Yes, yeah, you want to
fade Buffalo and yeah, play through Henry and then then you
can. Then you can go, I mean,
frankly, you probably want to do your Hertz teams like that too,
but definitely like your Daniels.
Daniels I think you also might want to be thinking about
Packers beating the Eagles because then they get to go to
the winner of the Rams, Vikings and the Packers go to Lions.
It helps the commander's path quite a bit.
I like that a lot. I mean, Daniels is Daniels might
be a touch light because he is pretty fun.
Yeah, and his teammates are like super, like he's not super
condensed, so he's got that separation aspect from his
teammates. Right, yeah, I'm going to raise,
I'm going to raise him to like 4, right?
I mean, he's he's a fun play. Yeah, he's going to be a top
five quarterback in ADP next year.
Like people know he's good at fantasy.
Yeah, I stole it from Alan. Yeah, I think the the two that
stand out to me are like the the Jayden Baker and just like
whoever wins that those quarterbacks, if they if they
snap off a second and get three games, I could see either of
those quarterbacks being in play.
Cause Baker can spread it around like nobody's for sure.
Someone who's tilted, Devin Culp catches.
I can attach to that. Go to, go to running back and
receive real quick. One thing just to know, because
the, the there's some Lamar love in the chat, which I I totally
get, but I do feel pretty good about this.
Last year I projected Lamar 55, Allen 33.
It was Lamar 41, Allen 34. And that's that's Ravens one
seed with Lamar winning MVP. So yeah, I think and the natural
break is going to go towards Allen.
Let me get a running back. That's without Henry, too, by
the way. And and Andrews was hurt.
Kind of wild. All right, Barkley, I've been
slowly raising as we've just going to make adjustments.
Except the 77 now. Gibbs, Henry.
Yeah, Jacobs probably comes down a little.
I think I'm going to fade the Packers a bit more.
Bucky looks way too high to me. But keep them there for the
sheets, you know, it's like. Yeah, this looks, this looks
good to me. Yeah, Jacob seems just, you
know, juxtaposed here across the other ones like a smidge high,
but. Yeah, he he is for sure.
Kyron's the other potential Lakers play.
I mean, Kyron and Nixon in the teens are.
Yeah, but Kyron's got, I mean, Nixon's got Nico, but we've
talked about the puka thing like that's.
Kyron and a loss is like almost what you need it to be and
Chiron games are are hard and a loss.
Yeah, it's true. You basically need like a puka
injury it feels like gets banged up somehow.
What do you got at receiver? You guys called this last night
I think I Jefferson over puka and you're like, no, no, no, no,
it's puka. And so, yeah, Puka's the chalk
now. It's wild to see Lad and
Mclaurin next, but I mean it makes sense.
Yep. This gets to be in the running
back season, man. There's no Jamar Chase.
Sutton Sutton does feel a little high here.
Pickens now down below 10%. A.J.
Brown below 10. We moved him down, yeah.
Yeah, Mclaurin goes down a little.
I'm going to fade Washington more than I have it now.
So Mclaurin will come down not a ton, but but definitely a little
bit. If if Lions were playing this
week and we got the David Montgomery active news or, you
know, full practice stuff, I would start like boosting up a
Mon raw, bringing down Gibbs a little bit.
I just, I think there's going to be a lag to the reaction to that
with it just out of sight, out of mind on the BI.
Yeah, dude. Are they?
Is it just he? Does stand out there though,
right? Are these receivers a little
shakier than we've had in past years?
Once you get past puka? For sure.
And. We used to have like loaded, you
know, Devante Adams was always a fixture in here.
Yeah, I guess if you pre filled like Adam, Super Cop, CD Lamb, I
mean. Yeah.
Last year we had CD 87. We've had Jamar chases.
Tyreke 50 7's 43. Yeah, Tyree kill.
I mean with the Dolphins even, but especially back with KC.
Well, I guess I had Kelsey back then, but.
Yep, Yeah, it it falls off. Yeah, A.J.
Brown definitely looks looks nice when you stare at all this.
How do your soft fades land here real quick before we the OK?
Let's see kicker and knee kicker.
Yeah, kicker tried to stay flatter this year because if if
there's one if there's one like leak in my game here, I'd say
it's I haven't nailed the soft fades like I've I've been very
good with the overall fades, but identifying how it breaks out
between hard fade kicker and defense has been kind of shaky.
So I. It's probably pretty random.
I mean, it feels like the thing that the the market is actually
deciding at the very end by just clicking buttons.
Random, but like, oddly concentrated randomness.
Like yeah, everyone seems to somehow end up the same way.
Right, I need to like listen to more stuff on that like, you
know, this is like I, I need to get the sentiment of the of the
crowd a little bit more because. I think this is where.
The oh, go ahead. I was is it maybe the one year
stuck in my head though, Like do you have the actuals last year
on kicker and and yeah, was it? No, I was, I was pretty wrong
last year on it. Let's see.
Let me see. No, I wasn't that wrong.
But Jake Elliott was the chalk kicker 28% I had 25.
Kaemi Fairbear was 24, I had 19. Houston 18 was the chalk.
DI had 20. Here's where I was wrong.
And so I had, I thought Cleveland would be really chalky
at on defense and they were only 13%.
I had them at 32, but it was part of because I thought, I
thought people would actually fade Cleveland who lost and they
didn't, they did not fade them at all.
So that was just kind of a bigger miss.
I had them 36% faded and they were 18%.
So people just didn't fade them as part of it.
So yeah, so I think sometimes maybe that's been it of like,
I'm like, I thought that was a good beta team.
They don't and then they soft fade them.
That meant that was a unique. That was a storyline where
Flacco had gone to Houston and had that monster game and both
Amari and in joke who went off in week 716 or 17 or whatever,
and then he was going back to Houston this and everyone was
like, this was a shootout 3 weeks ago.
Like there's always this weird little independent narratives,
but that's why no one faded Cleveland.
They wanted to play both sides of that game bad.
That's a good .2 years ago I got I, I under projected Justin
Tucker. He came in 43%.
I had him at 22. I had him as the chalk kicker,
but I just underestimated how strong the chalk would be.
Yeah, two year I had Jacksonville at 5.
They came in at 20 on defense. So I, I think the team that
people, it's probably, it's probably Houston the where where
a decent amount of the stuff goes because they're just like,
I'm going to Houston, I'm going to soft bait this team, right.
Like or Tampa, Washington if people don't actually.
Or Tampa, Washington. Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, those are the two soft baits, I think.
Yeah, I just think Chargers, Chargers, Texans is gonna
separate from the for the fade. I mean, it does not.
No one wants to fade the highest total game on the slate with two
explosive offenses. Like there's no one wants to do
that. Whereas people can still think
of the Chargers, the the Harbaugh run the ball stigma and
the Texans are like the most fraudulent team in the playoffs.
Like it's the soft fade ball. It is the soft fade ball for
sure. What do you got for D?
For D 011 SEC Chris, Chris got me here.
Everyone going to condense on Cyprus, Pittsburgh, Houston,
Green Bay, Washington, Denver. So I kept this fairly flat, but
I think Houston probably comes up and Washington probably comes
up. Yeah, Baker throws picks, and I
think people probably saw fade that game a little bit more than
I have. I think people would rather play
Washington, D than Denver D. Yep, Denver.
D it seems. Like the teams you you should
check this pack because I could be wrong but I feel like the
teams that are the biggest underdogs sometimes get like
fully faded even on the DST on the kicker.
Yeah, that's that's what we talked about earlier.
So last year Pittsburgh 76% hard faded and they were 95% total
faded and then Packers 59% hard faded and 74% total.
But that was for what it's worth.
I over projected both of the hard fades there though.
Actually heavy. Even less.
Maybe not, yeah. What do you have for hard fades
here? Hard fades.
The last one, we haven't done 65 and 50.
I mean, I still feel like Denver's I Denver I think is
unique. I'm telling you guys, people
just hate this team. They're spread out.
They don't trust Bonex. I think it's going to be 75 to
80% hard fate. It's going to be absurd.
Well, not hard fate, but you, you mean hard fate.
They're not going to play anything.
What was the highest last? Year like hard fate would be
well the highest was 76% for Pittsburgh, but they were 95%
total faded. Do you think that are we in that
kind of range? Probably not Denver's D is good.
There will be some people that talk to results in a Denver.
'S probably right here. Yeah, I have them.
I have them 85% total faded, which maybe is a little low and
then a bunch of that going through the hard faded.
I can't believe we're at 28% Green Bay fade and it's probably
like about right, I know. Wait, you want that to be more
or less? I'm just tilted that this
universe exists where that's reasonable.
But they're not more of a fun playoff team.
Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I feel like it's
surprising that they didn't try harder to win.
It didn't end up mattering, but they're in a spot where they got
to beat the the two clear best NFC teams on the road.
They got to beat the the Eagles. And then even if they win that
they they have to go to the Lions, they still have really
good odds to win the NFC. They're like the fourth highest
odds. I was talking to Brat who works
with us at ETR and he, he, he thinks those odds are just just
bad. Like, you know, there's public
money and they they shift the odds and you know, there's, it's
not a two way market. What he He likes the Green Bay
side. You know, he doesn't like their
their odds to go to the Super Bowl are pretty high relative to
how hard their path is. Like, if you looked at it just
as, oh, we think Green Bay's good, the odds make sense.
But when you look at what Gretch is saying at Philly, at Detroit,
at Minnesota, like. You're not doing it.
I mean, that's 9% seems kind of high when you look at it that
way. Yeah, even if you say they're
better than all those teams, it's really unlikely that they
win all three of those on the road.
They're only like 34% to win round one or something.
Yeah, right. Thank you guys all for helping
us workshop these tonight. Very valuable conversation.
Got some new members still trickling in.
Make sure you guys sync those accounts in the Deposit Kingdom
discord. Unlock the ship chasing channel
and go to the pinned messages. You can find those ownership
projections if you want to review these, and as Pat tweaks
them throughout the week, you should be able to see those
updated as well. We're going to take tomorrow
night off. We will be back on Thursday with
Draco and Chris G going to maybe have a little bit of a
hodgepodge. We'll do a couple underdog
drafts, Chris G, former Gauntlet winner, and Draco a playoff
savant as well. So we'll have fun talking about
a few different angles and then on Friday.
So it's going to be a teeny bit later, 9:00 PM Eastern.
We'll get Leone back here, see if we can pry Dink away from his
NBA spreadsheets, and we'll have, you know, a drink or two
and have one last pow wow before the contest locks on Saturday.
Anything else for you guys here as we wrap up the second night?
Shout out Carane. I I think for for the hard work
on this. This is an awesome exercise it
takes. I think we need to say that I
think we need to clear we need to double down on that.
We've already said it, but the chat asked all these questions
throughout and I think you really get to how hard it is to
go through this whole process and come to all the answers that
Carane always comes to. And then when they've asked
these questions, you guys have seen that he's had answers for a
lot of them. There's reasons for a lot of the
stuff like Jameson Williams being as low as he was or
whatever when we went through all that.
These are a really useful tool if you want to play this
contest. You can pick out the spots where
you think it's too low or there's opportunities, there's
leverage, what have you. But I trust Karain implicitly to
get these right. He's gotten them right every
year. I mean, he's done really, really
well on this. And if he doesn't get them
right, we just get to blame him. So it's.
Really. Yeah.
It's a it's a bad job by me to not bring you guys in, close the
ship, Jake saying we all put our heads together.
It's low floor for me. I will say I we do normally
quickly build a $35 team with some ideas knocking around in
our heads. Someone mentioned that in the
chat. You guys want to want to build a
quick one here. Yeah, let's do it.
All right, let's do it. I will register us right now and
get this screen shared. Leona, you're a guest of honor.
Who do you want to kick off this lineup with?
Josh Allen, He. Just started smiling as soon as
he. Is wow, no hesitation.
Super Bowl MVP Josh Allen. You're not sure?
It's just to be clear. Yeah, no, I'm.
I'm getting it up. I had to register.
All right, here we go. Alpha plays.
Only Josh Allen is in. Big Josh Allen before you even
had time to register. That's right.
All right. Well, we can just keep going
around the horn like we normally do.
I got I started to get pretty excited about the Aman Raw stuff
as we were talking about it. Let's toss him in as our wide
receiver. Pat, the pic is yours.
Joe Mixon. OK, OK.
A really good thing. Here we go.
I also want to, I remember last year, I want to say it was the
team we built the $35.00 with Hassan and Blair after the
Monday or whatever. The early week episode was a
really good lineup that was cooking in the 35.
So there's something to be said about your early week in early
week instincts here, Gretsch. Chat most of your plan.
We only took a little bit of a chalk pick at first, but yeah, I
want to, I think I want to get you to get a more of a unique
one, Leone. So I'm going to take a chalk one
here. So I'm going to take puka for
us. That's not where I thought you
were going. I love puka.
Are we snaking or we're just? We're just.
Back. No, no, we're just going around.
Oh man, back to me. OK, OK, so we got man.
What do you do with Baltimore in a loss?
I'm going to punt that decision to someone else.
I kind of want to. I know I'm, I'm, I'm being.
No. Boring and slow.
I'm gonna go on. We want you to influence the
lineup. A.J.
Brown. OK, A.J.
Brown, here we go. We got Josh Allen, Joe Mixon,
Amanra St. Brown Pukanakua.
A.J. Brown here, let's go ahead.
And I feel like this will be unique to not use if we don't
have Barkley and we don't have Bucky, let's keep this flipped
and and let's go. Let's go, Mike Evans.
OK, he wanted to. Play Bucky after.
Easter, I know you. I can't.
Believe you didn't pick Bucky. I know Greg wants a radio.
He wants a molligan now for. Sure.
As soon as he took Agent Brown, I was like, well, then I want to
take Josh Jacobs and then we got both sides of that game, so I
want to play Washington's kicker.
I was like, I'm doing all this shit in my head do.
We still play Washington's kicker.
It is, yeah. We.
Pat. I think I am going to play Josh
Jacobs. OK, see, this is This is why I
think this is like the classic flip the build, right?
Like you don't have Barkley, I guess TBD on Henry, but if we're
playing them as a loss and having just Mixon and Jacobs as
you're ready backs and then going to all these wide receiver
pivots. That are really trying.
Pivots. We have arguably every team's
best player and this is super contrarian already.
Exactly, This is why you don't have to play Marvin Mims and
Quinton Johnston. Yes.
And Evans can beat Buck in multiple games.
But I guess I'm thinking if if you play Packers to be pretty
live to beat the Eagles, you're probably saying Bucks are
hosting in the second round because of the three seed.
I'll I'll take Zane Gonzalez here.
We can still do that with Evans. But yeah, there's a possibility
the Bucks would then make would play Austin.
I know. I think I think Evans and Bucky
are pretty tight though. Like.
In like 3 games of two wins, do you think it's still pretty
tight? I think so.
I think I mean. Evans has a ceiling.
Wins, too. It's yeah.
If they if they were to play like a tough run defense or
something, you know, is there, I can't think of the is it would
they ever match up with the Eagles?
Like if they're I still think we could see a negative game script
all Mike Evans, Rashad White on the field a ton.
Like Bucky has a lower floor than over a multiple game sample
I feel like. It's not crazy, I just have
Bucky goggles. I'm actually tilted.
Wait, I wanted to go dicker the kicker for.
Oh cuz you're mixing thing. Cuz I'm mixing.
Thing we put it on Washington DC I'll I'll take that off.
I took Niku on my last one. I'll do something more fun.
Sorry. Zane isn't fun.
Zane is pretty fun considering we didn't even know he was
playing about. 20 minutes Did you hear about the jealousy
battle? I'll do Mark Andrews.
I think we've already done the Andrews on on.
Last nights but so we oh OK, we don't have tight end yet.
Do we not want to do Andrews? I think Andrews is good on this.
I mean, we're playing Baltimore to lose.
I think Andrews is is fine. Yeah, or it's Jim Henry.
On here these these builds get weird though, where you're like
Henry in a loss like Andrew, like like the Baltimore side
gets weird for sure. Right.
Henry in a loss would be fine. I mean, he's going to well.
He winning one game and then lose, yeah.
All right, it is. It's you, Leone.
Well, that's where I'm like, like, like I kind of want to
just still play Kelsey even though we have Andrews, but.
We can. I'm a little.
So what team? Make that, Henry, make that.
I'll do. I'll do a head ring setting.
Andrews, We're playing two games.
You can, you can do, you can do Andrews.
No, I Andrews. Is good.
I'm going to go. I'm going to be some chalk here.
I'm going to go. Given what we have, I think, I
think, I think Justin Jefferson. Do we want to play both sides of
that though, or? We can afford to do that.
OK, Justin Jefferson. I'll go with Justin Jefferson.
I think we can eat some chalk with the way this is.
This is setting up. Just go high as a projected
player on Minnesota. Well, then there there's cyber.
That's what's so funny that he pops in here from the the points
per game. He's the top.
He's the top kicker. That's why you saw it, right?
Pat yeah, that's, yeah, that's. We got to hack into FPC and
remove that IR tag. So if we if we call the if
everyone is going to soft fade the Texans chargers.
I like playing two skill positions.
So let's let's put lad in this one.
We now already have three head to heads just.
That means we're fading the Chiefs, though, Pete.
Don't hate it. We could do Kelsey.
And then, well, if you do, if
you do play both sides of the Houston Chargers game, you are
kind of just saying like soft. Fading.
They're gonna beat Kansas City. Yeah.
That's true. I'm just pointing out that we
already have like. We have a ton of contrarian
pieces already. So yeah, let's, let's, let's
play Kelsey. We can go 2 tight ends here.
And two, tight end feels like it's going to be pretty
contrarian. The reason when you said you
wanted to play Kelsey, I was thinking coming off Andrew's.
I do think part of Andrew's case is that he wouldn't have to beat
Henry straight up. Yeah.
If he was just feeling the. Chinese get get Peta's original
pick back then. Wow, let's fade, let's fade, KC
said. It's a $35 entry.
Let's have. Some.
I I kind of like though, I mean, you're, you're starting to play
a specific bracket, but it's not, you know, KC is going to be
what, like 25% to lose if they play the Chargers maybe.
Maybe more like, maybe a little more.
If they play Houston, it's not crazy.
All right, we got kicker and defense to wrap up here.
Who's that? I'll go Bucker just to get us
the the maybe they win one game and he's OK and two, what do you
put there? I was thinking that because
you're playing. I kind of like.
Bucker there, OK. Then I'll do Washington DSTI
think you're playing Evans, you're playing pass attempts
against, you're playing a little bit of a shootout.
But we didn't necessarily play a Washington player, but some
potential for Baker Saxon. A note on the defensive scoring
for people kind of coming over from underdogs stuff.
You want pass attempts against it.
It's not like a scoring system where like getting like a low
scoring don't don't score many points on them that doesn't do
shit for you. You need like sacks and
interceptions and pick 6 like it's you actually really want
pass attempts against. I think after 10 points allowed
it literally doesn't matter. Yeah, it's something insane.
Yeah, you'd. Have to.
I'm glad we built the team though because you just it's you
forget every year like how quickly it becomes pretty
contrarian without even doing anything that crazy.
Yeah. Yeah, and the other thing you
realize from our stuff too is like how easy it is to get
funneled to the same fates, you know?
Over and over again. Yeah, so that'll be, that's a
note for us. All right, Fun show that did
most of the the promo stuff there a few minutes ago.
We will see you guys on on Thursday night for our next show
with FFCFFPC Playoff Week. Hop in the discord, grab those
ownership projections, and we'll see you guys then.
Peace.