1 00:00:02,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Tonight on a ship chasing FFPC playoff week rolls on. 2 00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:11,240 Tonight is a pivotal night for getting us set for entering line 3 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:15,000 UPS into this contest because Pat Crane has been in the lab 4 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:19,120 working on his ownership projections which are the the 5 00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:22,080 skeleton key to help you figuring out how to build line 6 00:00:22,080 --> 00:00:24,000 UPS that can win first place in this contest. 7 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:27,920 He's done it year after year and always has an incredible hit 8 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:31,000 rate on predicting what the field is going to do. 9 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:34,200 So we're going to go team by team on these tonight, get them 10 00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:36,880 battle tested, stress tested and in really good shape. 11 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:38,840 And if you guys are in the ship chasing Discord, you guys can 12 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:40,560 follow along. There will be a Google sheet, 13 00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:43,960 two said ownership projections and also a special treat. 14 00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:46,080 Our friend Mike Leone is going to be joining us for a bit 15 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:48,240 tonight as well. This is ship chasing playoff 16 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:51,000 week with Pete, Pat, Gretch and guest Leone. 17 00:00:51,000 --> 00:01:00,080 Let's do it. Pat Fryer, Helmo, Anita Hand. 18 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:04,239 Job fix your sight. Jamar Alpha play Chase. 19 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:09,800 You can't handle the heat. It looks like we're finally at 20 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:18,960 this point. You're right man. 21 00:01:18,960 --> 00:01:23,240 Seeing that alpha play Jamar Chase in the intro and realizing 22 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:27,480 we don't get to have him in this playoff slate is such a bummer 23 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:28,920 that the Bengals aren't part of this it. 24 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:34,560 Really is definitely. Leonie, welcome to to the show. 25 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:37,120 A little pleasant surprise to have you joining us tonight. 26 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:38,920 What's up? I'm excited. 27 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:42,360 This is the greatest week. I get to annoy you guys with 28 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:45,640 constant messages for the next three to four weeks and I'm 29 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:48,240 looking forward to it. It is one of those times where 30 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:51,160 like, I step away, I draft some gauntlet teams, you know, I'm 31 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:54,360 like, that's good catching up on my playoff baseball stuff and I 32 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:59,480 come back to like 85 messages. New Leona would go back and 33 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:03,400 forth for a bed today. Yes, this is this is what 34 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:04,960 happens. Like we got off the show last 35 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:07,440 night with this on and Blair that we had a chat going with 36 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:10,080 them for a while. I mean, you just go down, you 37 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:13,960 know, infinite rabbit holes when you start trying to think about 38 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:16,360 this contest. Love seeing comments like this 39 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:17,080 too. Michael says. 40 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:19,800 I don't even play FFPC playoff and these are my favorite shows 41 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:22,760 each year in the playoffs. So even if you aren't playing, 42 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:24,400 hopefully you guys can find some Nuggets. 43 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:26,760 I know there's all kinds of playoff contests going on. 44 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:29,160 We're doing some fun ones over at Fantasy Life with the 45 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:32,200 guillotine leagues. There's a a chop contest where 46 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:34,880 it's kind of like the FFPC where you set it and forget it, but 47 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:39,400 25% of the field is cut down after each week. 48 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:41,640 So then you have to balance the same things, kind of like 49 00:02:41,640 --> 00:02:44,600 ownership survival, but optimizing for the playoffs as 50 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:48,520 well. All right, Pat just dropped in 51 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:53,520 the Discord the sheet to view his ownership projections that 52 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:55,120 I'm going to pull up on screen here. 53 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:58,920 I'm going to make a. Copy That's the I I originally 54 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:01,480 had this be allowed to be edited by no. 55 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:04,320 Pat. No, this is like two years ago 56 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:07,120 and people did some crazy things to that sheet. 57 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:10,880 It was never the same, so it's view only. 58 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:14,080 Make a copy and then you can sort and filter and all that 59 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:16,400 stuff. How about this Pat? 60 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:20,360 I know I kind of said it at the top, but explain maybe for 61 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:24,880 people why ownership projections are are so important for this 62 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:28,920 contest. Well, first of all, it's this is 63 00:03:28,920 --> 00:03:31,560 a very top heavy contest in payout structure. 64 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:33,440 So it's important to finish first. 65 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,080 And as we talked about yesterday, there's going to be 66 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:41,360 duplicated line UPS. So you know from the, you don't 67 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:45,640 want to be duped and you like finding a, a unique path to 1st 68 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:50,440 place is extremely profitable as as opposed to like splitting 69 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:53,080 3rd, right? You wouldn't want to do that in 70 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:56,520 this contest. And so you, you're trying it. 71 00:03:56,520 --> 00:04:01,600 You can there's also spots where because it's a contest where 72 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:06,920 heavy chalk condenses, you can pivot off of some of that with 73 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:10,840 some smart leverage plays and get yourself a big leg leg up on 74 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:13,840 the field. So I think that's that's kind of 75 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:15,120 the pitch for why ownership matters. 76 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:20,760 Yep, Gretch, any any thoughts on how you think about the 77 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:24,200 ownership when you start to, you know, lay out these brackets and 78 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:26,320 kind of sketch out the teams you want to build? 79 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:32,160 There's, there's so many, right? We've talked we've talked about 80 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:34,800 this last night, how like it, it takes whatever, you know, 5 81 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:37,560 minutes to learn and a lifetime to master this contest. 82 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:40,600 I mean, there's Pat just did a really job of explaining it, but 83 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:43,400 there's so many ways obviously to then play off of that. 84 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:46,680 Every team's going to be unique. Every position is going to be 85 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:48,400 unique. I think when we go through this, 86 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:51,600 we typically go each year team by team and talk about it. 87 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:55,080 But there's also the the constraints of each position, 88 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:56,480 right? Like this year, for example, we 89 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:58,600 talked about a lot last night, tight end feels like there's 90 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:00,320 going to be some real constraints on that position 91 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:03,520 because the top five scoring tight ends and points per game 92 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:06,880 are not in the playoffs. And so you have and Kelsey's the 93 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:08,960 next one and then there's a few more and then you get down to 94 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:11,280 these guys that are a few points behind even Kelsey. 95 00:05:11,280 --> 00:05:14,480 And it feels like one of those guys is going to be the pivot, 96 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:15,800 right? Or like, well, Kelsey's going to 97 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:17,360 be played a lot. Maybe it will just be Kelsey. 98 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:19,480 You know, there's all these constraints just within the 99 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:21,680 tight end position. And then what those impacts are 100 00:05:21,680 --> 00:05:24,280 on the on the teams, their individual teams, right? 101 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:26,800 Yeah. And it's a, it's an interesting 102 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:29,160 contest because some of those pivots, I try to like to 103 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:32,000 anticipate what those pivots are and then bring the ownership up 104 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:35,200 on the pivot because it's like the worst thing you can do is be 105 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:38,480 like the best pivot. Is this because no one's going 106 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:40,360 to play it and then everyone plays it, right? 107 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:42,760 Yeah. So I brought up Woolie's one of 108 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:44,640 the guys that I, I brought up quite a bit. 109 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:48,480 Sorry, I just said. So Leone, what because I think 110 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:51,000 the risk and we might have ran into this last night at the end 111 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:53,440 of the show with Blair Hassad where we basically built the 112 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:55,240 light up with every pivot possible. 113 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:57,680 And it is possible to over leverage yourself. 114 00:05:57,680 --> 00:05:59,080 How do you think about that element? 115 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:01,240 Because you think about this in DFS all the time, like in a 116 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:03,680 contest like even the Thunderdome where it's like you 117 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:07,480 want to be unique, but you don't have to necessarily go super off 118 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:09,200 the board. Yeah. 119 00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:12,000 I mean, you're trying to find the middle ground of like the 120 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:15,440 odds of all the plays, like actually giving you enough 121 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:18,800 points to win and being different from the field. 122 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:23,080 And I feel like playing this contest with you guys last few 123 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:25,600 years, the thing that we're generally focused on is a lot of 124 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:28,960 the field either goes way too cocky or then makes like these 125 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:32,440 Galaxy brain plays that are like super thin and you don't need to 126 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:36,400 make them when you play, You know, sometimes you can play 127 00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:39,960 legitimately like the third second best fantasy option on a 128 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:43,560 team at like 2%. You don't need to play, you 129 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:48,600 know, Keon Coleman at at at at 1% for example, when you could 130 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:52,800 play, you know, Romeo Dobbs or Jaden Reed. 131 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:56,480 You know the team's arguably their top 2 wide receivers. 132 00:06:56,480 --> 00:07:00,920 So finding that build ground. And another thing, and I think 133 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:03,640 we hit on this maybe once or twice last night, we'll probably 134 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:07,600 reference it a lot that those may be thinner plays are a lot 135 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:11,480 more viable if you're playing A1 and done scenario, because when 136 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:14,480 a team gets multiple games, it's more and more likely that the 137 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:17,200 alphas on the team are going to pass them. 138 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:19,760 So we talked about like Puka versus Cooper Cup, could Cup 139 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,120 outscore them in A1 game? Sure, maybe. 140 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:24,680 But then if you had a second game in a third game, what are 141 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:27,520 the chances he actually outscores him over that sample? 142 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:29,360 And so that's another. Thing you're reducing variance 143 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:31,240 with more of a sample size at that. 144 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:37,200 Point Yep shout out in the chat. We got a few new members here 145 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:41,840 looking to hop in the discord and check out the sheet and also 146 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:43,720 our guy Keith gifting 5 memberships. 147 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:47,400 Appreciate that If you guys have not been in the Discord, the way 148 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:49,360 it works, if you're a YouTube member, there's a link to the 149 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:51,080 deposit Kingdom Discord down below. 150 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:55,160 You hop in you sync your YouTube and Discord or yeah YouTube and 151 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:56,920 Discord accounts. There's a instructions in the 152 00:07:56,920 --> 00:07:58,880 FAQ. It's really easy and then it 153 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:02,000 will unlock the ship chasing discord where I have now pinned 154 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:06,520 that sheet. Pat, can I just jump in a 155 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:08,280 couple, couple more things just about the contest. 156 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:11,760 So you don't play two teams at all. 157 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:14,600 You you just don't select anything from those two teams. 158 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:18,480 And then you also don't select a skill player including 159 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:21,840 quarterback in that you don't like play a player in your 160 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:23,120 lineup from two additional teams. 161 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:26,760 One's kicker 1 is defense. So if you think about like the 162 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:29,640 way that works, there's four teams that you're basically not 163 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:32,080 picking someone on. You're betting against them in 164 00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:34,240 that particular lineup. You're hoping they lose in round 165 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:36,799 one. That's the best outcome for you. 166 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:39,960 That means that like if you're building a few line UPS, you're 167 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:44,120 not playing, you know, four teams on one lineup and then 168 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:48,400 next lineup you're like, oh, I didn't play the Broncos in this 169 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:50,920 lineup, I'm going to play them in this other one, right? 170 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:55,440 You're probably playing suck like and so that this is kind of 171 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:59,280 a response to the the what is Marvin Mims percentage less than 172 00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:02,800 1% like on all those types of plays, less than 1%. 173 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:06,320 And the the way to think about that is because most people just 174 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:08,040 aren't playing the Broncos at all. 175 00:09:08,680 --> 00:09:11,000 And you, this applies obviously to the Steelers. 176 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:13,280 This is going to apply to the Packers. 177 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:16,400 This is going to condense possible in the Commanders, 178 00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:19,440 Chargers and Texans. Those teams were they're going 179 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:21,880 to go to the Stutz because it's like, well, I didn't play the 180 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:22,960 Texans. So now I'm going to play the 181 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:24,720 Texans and I'm going to play Dalton Schultz. 182 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:28,480 No, you're probably going to play Joe Mixon or Nico Collins. 183 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:32,520 Yeah, that's the big thing Leone hit on when he said like the 184 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:35,680 second guy. That's the biggest mistake I I 185 00:09:35,680 --> 00:09:38,760 see with some of the lineups and and some of the comments and 186 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:42,280 some of the chat stuff. It's been a thing in DFS for 187 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:44,520 years. There's a mistake for me in DFS 188 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:46,680 for years was like, I always wanted to just find that low 189 00:09:46,680 --> 00:09:50,200 owned guy. But in DFS there's I mean, 190 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:53,200 because of the constraint of only one player per team. 191 00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:56,560 It's even it's it's more of a thing here where you don't need 192 00:09:56,560 --> 00:09:59,280 to get to those players. There's twelve players in this 193 00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:01,640 lineup and there's only one player per team. 194 00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:04,280 So the vast majority of people aren't going to get off of 195 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:06,600 Saquon Barkley on the Eagles, you know, And if they do, 196 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:07,800 they're going to go to A.J. Brown. 197 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:10,360 And so Devonta Smith and Dallas Goddard are just sitting there. 198 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:12,960 Yeah, they're not going. To do what I had a 2% in this 199 00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:16,640 like the we're just asking if a couple people like a couple 200 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:20,200 percent gal brain to Mims in the $35 contest. 201 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:23,240 People do like a little bit more gal brain stuff, but we're this 202 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:25,040 content's geared to the $200 one. 203 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:28,400 That's like what I'm going to sync up these projections with 204 00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:33,080 and see how well I did and in their like, no, they won't like 205 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:34,800 you. They'll they'll play Sutton or 206 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:39,000 they'll play the Bron like Broncos fade Broncos kicker 207 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:42,360 Broncos defense like they're just you're not playing Sutton 208 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:45,800 and you're spending $200.00 on the lineup, then you're probably 209 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:46,760 just not playing the Broncos. The. 210 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:51,400 Other thing with Pat mentioning that, you know there's four 211 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:54,040 teams that you're fading like either soft fade or hard fade. 212 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:59,000 I mean six teams are losing round one, first of all, so if 213 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:02,400 you just take a skilled player on one of the lesser picked 214 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:05,720 teams that's going to lose and you saw fade one of the other 215 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:08,720 teams, sometimes you can pick up a lot of points that way. 216 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:12,160 The other thing too is again, instead of getting like full on 217 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:15,520 Galaxy brain, sometimes you can play like the clear best player 218 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:18,360 on a team that people just think is going to lose. 219 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:21,960 I know Pat just mentioned Sudden might be owned because of that, 220 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:26,600 but there was the year that we, we always reference to Cam Akers 221 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:32,400 here that Pat was on Cam Akers and they were like 4540% to win 222 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:36,880 round one and no one took the clear best play because they 223 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:40,280 were the underdog round one and they had like a 4045% chance of 224 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:42,880 winning. So you can definitely find I, I 225 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:45,000 don't know if I see like an obvious one this year, but 226 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:47,680 there's definitely sometimes these these matchups where teams 227 00:11:47,680 --> 00:11:51,280 like 40% to win and people are treating them like, you know, 228 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:53,320 and. They're like 75% faded. 229 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:55,960 Yeah, it's a little different this year because there's two 230 00:11:55,960 --> 00:11:59,560 huge spreads and so those teams are likely going to get faded 231 00:11:59,560 --> 00:12:01,760 the the ones that are underdogs. I was also going to mention real 232 00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:04,240 quick on the 1% own thing and, and the chat asking these 233 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:07,800 questions. There's 75 and 7500 entries in 234 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:09,040 this. We, we learned this with Jake 235 00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:11,640 Ferguson last year. He was like 1.8% or something. 236 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:16,880 But 1% is 75 teams. So even if you play a guy at 1% 237 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:19,560 and get him right, you're not like winning the contest 238 00:12:19,560 --> 00:12:22,560 strictly because of that. You're now in a 75 team. 239 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,600 You've made it incredibly more advantageous, but you got to get 240 00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:29,160 the 11 other players right. I mean, there's 75 other teams 241 00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:30,360 that have that player in their build. 242 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:34,600 And so there's like this trade off of like you, it's it's both. 243 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:37,200 I'm not trying to act like it's not going to be advantageous to 244 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:39,800 get a 1% guy right, But it's both a fin play. 245 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:44,080 And it's also not the like home run that people I think think of 246 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:46,200 because the Ferguson thing last year, it was like, God, he's 247 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:47,880 solo on. Maybe it won't even be a 248 00:12:47,880 --> 00:12:50,000 Ferguson team that wins, but there was enough Ferguson teams. 249 00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:51,480 I'm pretty sure he ended up in the winter, but. 250 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:54,320 The optimal doesn't win. Is is maybe another way of 251 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:56,440 putting in that? It does work for ways, though, 252 00:12:56,440 --> 00:13:00,800 where like one, what Gretch is saying is true that you know 253 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:02,960 you're not auto winning. If you get this right, you still 254 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:05,320 have other things to get right. So if you're going to do a 1% on 255 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:07,960 play, like, you know, you probably don't want to get too 256 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:10,000 gal brain with your other picks because the odds of you getting 257 00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:12,120 two of those right is probably very low. 258 00:13:12,560 --> 00:13:16,400 But the flip side is we do see weird circumstances where like 259 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:19,920 we just think we're dead after two games because the guy went 260 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:23,240 nuts, or like only those teams can win and then something else 261 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:25,000 win. But sometimes the. 262 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:26,560 Winner was not on the winner for. 263 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:28,240 Ferguson. Was coming here. 264 00:13:28,560 --> 00:13:32,680 Yeah, sometimes the winner is like really far off the optimal, 265 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:34,480 which is important. Like you don't need to be 266 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:37,400 optimal, which sometimes changes the way you think too, where 267 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:39,880 it's like, yeah, I could make this play because it could work 268 00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:42,320 out of my favor. But like, I can still win the 269 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:47,040 contest even if it, you know, you can win it even if 1% 270 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:49,880 Ferguson is is there. Obviously if you played 271 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:52,800 Ferguson, that's amazing. So like, and we we we actually 272 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:54,400 kind of like talk. I think we played like 2% 273 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:56,480 Ferguson and we kind of wish we had played more. 274 00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:58,440 So they're out of one. Pair with Reed a little too 275 00:13:58,440 --> 00:13:58,880 much. Yeah. 276 00:13:58,880 --> 00:13:59,560 Is this one of those? It's. 277 00:13:59,560 --> 00:14:01,080 Because that's The thing is that's the point I'm trying to 278 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:02,600 make. Guys you want to play? 279 00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:05,440 There's just some guys that are like really thin. 280 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:09,160 It's not just about the Ferguson play itself, it's about the 12 281 00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:11,400 leg parlay of getting all of it right. 282 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:13,800 And so like we did play a little Ferguson and but you're like, 283 00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:16,440 well, this is a team where we did these things at QB and 284 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:18,680 everywhere else. And so people think like, oh, I 285 00:14:18,680 --> 00:14:21,600 can just put all the chalk and get this one surprising star 286 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:23,920 player, but you got to build like a whole lineup that tells a 287 00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:26,120 story for your bracket and all that stuff, you know? 288 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:28,920 It would be like the equivalent if you're playing salary cap 289 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:31,440 DFS, say like the Marvin Mims Sutton thing. 290 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:35,600 And both Sutton and Mims were the Stoneman 3000 and they were 291 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:38,600 both gonna be like 1 was gonna be 3% owned and one was gonna be 292 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:41,040 1% owned. You would, you would play 293 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:43,280 Courtland Sutton, you're like, I'm gonna take that target buff. 294 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:45,760 Like could you like shave off a little bit? 295 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:48,720 But like, what are you actually gaining from that? 296 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:50,760 That's a really good way to put it. 297 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:52,520 Let's see. Oh. 298 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:56,360 Yeah, I was going. To say, Pat, let's let's pull 299 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:59,240 this up. Do you want to start a filter on 300 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:01,960 your sheet to a team and then? To a team, yeah. 301 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:05,680 Do you want to go? I have it fairly easy sorted by 302 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:09,240 should we go 7 to one, 7 seeds to 1 seeds or? 303 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:12,920 Probably the matchups, I think, right, Matchups with the games, 304 00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:14,800 yeah, that's. Throw me a team, I'll I'll bring 305 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:16,240 it up. Baltimore. 306 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:19,560 Pittsburgh. OK that's easy cuz Baltimore is 307 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:22,800 the number one. And then I might have you just 308 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:25,080 zoom a little bit, Pat, just so these numbers are bigger. 309 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:27,880 I think you got a zoom is. It me. 310 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:30,040 You're right. I'm sharing. 311 00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:31,880 Duh. You're filtering. 312 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:33,760 I'm sharing, Right? There we go. 313 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:34,880 OK. You can. 314 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:36,680 You can adjust the 100% up there too. 315 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:38,440 That's an easy way to do all. Right. 316 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:39,360 Oh yeah. There we go. 317 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:42,640 OK, that worked. All right, All right. 318 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:46,600 Do we wanna actually stop sharing? 319 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:49,240 Do it well. Should we talk about the fades 320 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:53,600 for the total teams first or? I think it's fine to go team by 321 00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:56,160 team and then we can we can do a little macro at the end. 322 00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:57,240 Sounds good. Sounds good. 323 00:15:57,240 --> 00:15:59,800 OK, so Derrick Henry I think will be pretty chalky. 324 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:01,800 One of the chalkiest players in the field. 325 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:06,800 I've got him. He's not. 326 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:11,160 He's like 3456. He's the 7th chalkiest guy I 327 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:14,680 have right now. What the heck? 328 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:20,280 What just happened? Oh, you know what 'cause I sort. 329 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:23,400 Of yeah, better access on there. No, it's 'cause I it's eating 330 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:27,880 from another sheet, that sheet and now I'm showing everything 331 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:29,520 all right. Sheets on sheets. 332 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:34,000 Production value, OK, sorry. So Derrick Henry 55%, Lamar 333 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:39,000 Jackson's secondary chalk at quarterback, Mark Andrews kind 334 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:42,280 of the pivot play and then basically nothing else. 335 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:48,120 And then Pittsburgh, it's going to be heavily faded. 336 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:52,120 I have them as the heaviest faded team, even more than 337 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,880 Denver. Kicker catching a decent amount 338 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:58,920 here. Defense Pickens and then I think 339 00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:02,520 Fryer moves basically a bucket for for him and anything else. 340 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:08,640 Yeah, I don't like the way you have the top three Ravens. 341 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:12,440 Makes a ton of sense. Obviously, the Titan Premium is 342 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:16,319 doing some heavy lifting with Mark Andrews and just the 343 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:19,040 positional scarcity this year I think is going to keep him a 344 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:23,839 little higher than normal. But because Henry and Jackson 345 00:17:23,839 --> 00:17:26,960 are so strong, like, it's just hard to imagine him pulling any 346 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:30,880 more than that. And Zay, you know, not being 347 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:34,160 fully healthy is that. And that's big, yeah. 348 00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:39,560 And the thing on Zay, like you can't, I don't think you can gal 349 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:45,080 brain into Zay because you would need Baltimore to play multiple 350 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:48,560 games obviously for Zay to catch up. 351 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:53,080 And then if they do play, let's say three games, you're really 352 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:55,960 up against it fighting against Lamar teams. 353 00:17:56,360 --> 00:18:01,040 So that's just, you know, kind of an example of where you 354 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:04,200 probably don't need to get too crazy, even though someone might 355 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:06,440 look at it and see, oh, no one's gonna play Zay Flowers. 356 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:08,760 He comes back and dominates round two. 357 00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:12,360 But I just, you know, I just don't see it on a play like 358 00:18:12,360 --> 00:18:15,720 that. Yeah, and I was looking. 359 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:20,360 For for years we've done the QB has to be in the Super Bowl 360 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:23,600 champion. But we learned last year, I 361 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:27,000 mean, Mahomes played four games and Kelsey was good enough to be 362 00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:30,360 the tight end and Allen was the QB in two games. 363 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:33,880 And so, like, I mean, even in the scenarios where the Ravens, 364 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:38,040 like, play two games and Zay has one big game, like the way that 365 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:42,600 Lamar scores, he's probably in the mix to be the QB as well, 366 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:44,640 right? In two games or in three games, 367 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:47,200 especially. Like, it doesn't have to be a 368 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:50,640 Super Bowl run for Baltimore. And if it's two games, you got 369 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:54,160 to beat Henry and Andrews, you know, which is, you know, a 370 00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,560 tough hill to climb. So you probably need 3. 371 00:18:57,200 --> 00:19:00,240 And then it's probably, you know, Lamar, if not Henry at 372 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,760 that point. But you know, tight end being 373 00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:08,640 weird. I mean Friar mute looks low low. 374 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:13,200 Maybe he is low. The we'll get to the Kelsey 375 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,160 thing because it's it's sort of like boxes you in. 376 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:19,960 I think just how unappealing the other chiefs are, but open it 377 00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:24,280 maybe him being too low. The the Lamar thing is that he 378 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:28,520 would, if he's optimal in two games, one of those games was a 379 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:33,680 loss to the Bills, most likely. And so now you've you're like, 380 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:38,280 you really need James Cook or Dalton Kincaid to be going nuts 381 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:41,160 so that Allen isn't the optimal, which feels a little thin to me. 382 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,800 That's where I think I think out like the winner of that game 383 00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:47,680 will be the optimal quarterback most likely. 384 00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:52,440 Probably, yeah. What total tight end percentage 385 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:53,920 did you do? I know this is early for this, 386 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:57,200 but you just mentioned the Kelsey thing and you, you always 387 00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,640 talk about this a little bit and I know you've looked at it 388 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:01,920 historically at those different positions because we've talked 389 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:04,920 about it in the past years. Did you take the flex for tight 390 00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:09,720 end down this year? So it's actually up from last 391 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:14,600 year, but last year we didn't really have any options other 392 00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:16,520 than Kelsey. It was like you either played 393 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:22,760 Kelsey, we didn't have Andrews, so it was a little tough. 394 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:28,280 It was one 19119% and last year and I have it 126% this year, 395 00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:30,280 which is one of the reasons I don't have anything for 396 00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:33,440 firemouth because it's just like you don't need the title. 397 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:37,360 It's like you have Kelsey but you know, you also have Andrews. 398 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,800 You have Hertz, who I think will catch some ownership. 399 00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:45,880 It's way down from like 2022. Was it 155 percent? 400 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:52,640 20/21 was 185%. 20/20/2020 was 152. 401 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:56,000 That's as far back as I haven't. So the last two years I'm 402 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:59,640 basically treating as different than the years preceding that, 403 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:02,880 but right now it's actually slightly higher than last year. 404 00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:06,360 Makes sense? The Pittsburgh also just in 405 00:21:06,360 --> 00:21:08,520 terms of, you know, we're going to look through all the 406 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,720 ownership and everything, but we're also talking obviously a 407 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,160 little bit of strategy and stuff for the people who are thinking 408 00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:16,600 about making teams. Pittsburgh is an example of one 409 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:21,720 of these teams where because people have an impulse to play 410 00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:25,560 players that they want to play both sides of the close games in 411 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:28,280 the wild card round so that they lock in a winner. 412 00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:31,480 One of the things we always talk about, we talked about it a 413 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:35,640 little bit last night is if you on these teams that are likely 414 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:39,720 to lose if you do get a big game out of one of their skill 415 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:43,320 players, they can still very easily be the optimal player. 416 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:45,520 Because we know a minimum of six teams are going to lose in the 417 00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:47,760 first round. A minimum of two players that 418 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:52,440 are non fades or even soft fades are going to be in every line up 419 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,960 that played one game. And so if you make the decision 420 00:21:56,960 --> 00:22:00,680 to play a stealer, you're already gaining leverage because 421 00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:03,880 so much of the fuel and and it is going to be like this where 422 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,600 the field's going to say, I want to play both sides of other 423 00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:09,320 games where I want to, I want to keep my options open. 424 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:11,640 But there's going to be a lot of fades. 425 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:13,360 There's going to be a lot of people playing the kicker and D 426 00:22:13,360 --> 00:22:15,080 in kind of soft fading Pittsburgh. 427 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:20,680 If George Pickens has 175 and two in a loss, he's a really 428 00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:23,640 good play at 14%. He's literally the best player 429 00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:25,640 on Pittsburgh. And you're getting leverage 430 00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:27,000 there. You know, I mean, that's, that's 431 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:29,880 what the way this contest works, yeah. 432 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:33,920 And then if you think about it too, like if I, I was looking at 433 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:38,400 the, the odds, you know, just looking at like the, the money 434 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:42,120 line for the games and then what that implied the odds were that 435 00:22:42,120 --> 00:22:46,400 each of these teams wins. Pittsburgh has a 20% chance for 436 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:51,320 Vegas to beat the Bills. They were, they were +400. 437 00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:56,920 So then you look at like a team like the commanders and their 438 00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:02,480 41% chance to beat the Bucks or the Texans are 43% chance to 439 00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:07,120 beat the Chargers. So like I have like more than 440 00:23:07,120 --> 00:23:11,400 two X as many people fading the the Steelers compared to those 441 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:15,120 teams that, you know, it's like a ton of people will fade the 442 00:23:15,120 --> 00:23:18,320 Steelers in this, but also like, of course they will. 443 00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:21,120 They they don't have any real chance of winning the game like 444 00:23:21,120 --> 00:23:21,960 it actually. Makes a lot of. 445 00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:25,600 Sense yeah they should be they should be heavily faded but but 446 00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:27,640 I don't think people have any trouble just being like I'm not 447 00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:31,080 playing this like most lives will come pre loaded without a 448 00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:32,520 Bronco or a steeler. You just. 449 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,600 But they're pretty concentrated. I mean, they are it's it's 450 00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:39,440 Pickens or it's potentially Friar move if you want to get to 451 00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:40,800 the tight end. No one's going to play Naji 452 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:42,200 Harris. No one's going to play Russell 453 00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,440 Wilson and think they're going to go on some big run, right? 454 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:49,200 I mean. There's also like a roughly 40% 455 00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:53,600 chance that one of Denver, Pittsburgh wins, you know, 456 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,080 third. That's current 5%. 457 00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:59,800 You're the math guy bringing us back to reality here. 458 00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:03,760 I got to check my, my, my joint probability distribution. 459 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:08,960 Maybe it's more like even if you let's say 30 percent, 35%, like 460 00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:12,040 there's probably greater than one in three chance that one of 461 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:15,360 those teams wins. And I think the the field 462 00:24:15,360 --> 00:24:19,880 perceives it like more like these teams are 10% probably. 463 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:21,480 What it is you can't if you told me 20. 464 00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:22,600 Percent. I would have thought that was 465 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,680 high. Well, there's a 20% chance 466 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:26,800 Pittsburgh wins alone. That's. 467 00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:31,800 Crazy the other thing too. That and again like remembering. 468 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:36,440 I would say that most people putting entries into this 469 00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:38,880 contest aren't necessarily doing big volume. 470 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,840 You know, I'd say like even a lot would be somewhere from 5:00 471 00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:45,560 to 10:00 for for most people, you know, just on average, like 472 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:48,960 it's really hard to sit down with your second or third bullet 473 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,520 and be like, let me fire up Pat Fryer with they're like, let me 474 00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:53,920 play the Steelers as a win. Like the reason these ownership 475 00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:57,880 stay so low is because it's so many people just doing a handful 476 00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:00,360 of entries. If you had every 100 maxing or 477 00:25:00,360 --> 00:25:03,600 whatever it was like, then that calculus would change a bit 478 00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:05,640 more. Who wants to make that bet on 479 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:07,200 Pittsburgh to win? No one wants to make. 480 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:10,240 That no one wants to. Make that bet. 481 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:14,000 Yeah, You can kind of set it up as a free roll a little bit 482 00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:17,840 where, yeah, you hope, you hope they win, but if they don't, 483 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:21,320 you're not screwed because somebody's you got to play two 484 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:23,120 skill players that are losing no matter what. 485 00:25:23,120 --> 00:25:25,400 Everyone's playing players from teams that are losing, you know, 486 00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:27,480 we all are. We just, yeah, we were talking 487 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:30,720 about doing like Pickens, Andrews, and then you get on to 488 00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,160 Josh Allen because they're saying if Pittsburgh does win, 489 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,160 then you get Josh. I mean, it's pretty clearly 490 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,960 going to be Josh Allen. And Andrews makes a lot of sense 491 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:39,840 in A1 and done as your potential tight end option. 492 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,440 Or I mean maybe even Henry scores 2 touchdowns and a high 493 00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:47,360 scoring loss, but you can play free roll that. 494 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,360 The only other comment I saw in the chat, a few people thought 495 00:25:50,360 --> 00:25:54,880 Lamar seemed low. Yeah, go ahead. 496 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:58,120 He might be. We'll go to the next game. 497 00:25:58,120 --> 00:26:02,240 I think it'll help me dial in if he is actually low, we can. 498 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,960 He may be low. The the reason he, do you know 499 00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:08,520 what this ownership percentage may be? 500 00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:12,320 Because if Hertz was fully healthy and there was like 0 501 00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,880 issues around that, I think that they would kind of pull from 502 00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,200 each other. But if we keep progressing 503 00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:19,720 throughout the week and obviously, we're going to get 504 00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:24,000 news, I would think eventually. But if we have that uncertainty 505 00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,800 hanging over, then it's like maybe Lamar just starts ticking 506 00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:30,200 up more and more. It's almost like DFS we're we're 507 00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:32,920 getting, we're getting the guy ruled in, but like if he passes 508 00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,880 concussion protocol protocol like right before as everyone's 509 00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,840 kind of figured out what they're doing, he's not going to be 510 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,720 played. I have him reasonably played 511 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:45,680 like I think 12% we'll get to it, But that's they kind of want 512 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,880 to see people's reaction to that because if if he is too high, 513 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:50,840 then Lamar is too low. I think some of that comes from 514 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:54,080 Andrews, who people don't really need to play a little. 515 00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,560 Comes from Henry. Sounds like people think 516 00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,760 Fireman's a little low as well. He might be like 2 and Pickens 517 00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:06,040 comes down. I'd probably bet, you know, I, 518 00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:09,760 I, I'd take three points from Hertz to Lamar and take it off 519 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:11,680 Andrews. Probably, yeah. 520 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,440 OK. But we'll, we'll plan for that. 521 00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:20,800 And I could see just the way obviously the Titan Premium in 522 00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:24,520 just how many bagels and bad games Pickens is coming off of. 523 00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:26,880 There's like no good recency bias with that. 524 00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:28,640 Makes you feel cozy. Like at least with Cortland 525 00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:31,240 Sutton, you can be like, you know, he's had over 7 targets in 526 00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:33,240 the past couple of games. Like you're not getting that 527 00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:40,520 with Pickens right now. Yeah, One other thing I thought 528 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,480 would be kind of interesting, it would be so people are asking 529 00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:47,960 what the highest faded team was last year, and I have that 530 00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:51,520 handy, not Mason Rudolph. Steelers. 531 00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:58,440 With Mason Rudolph, 95% of the field did not play a Steelers 532 00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:00,320 player. So they I'm, I'm going to 533 00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:03,960 include kicker and defense into the phase here, but 95% of the 534 00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:07,560 field faded. The Steelers, two years ago we 535 00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:12,800 had the Tyler Huntley Ravens, 89% of the fuel faded. 536 00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:23,480 Them three years ago the Eagles were 88% faded and was hurt four 537 00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:26,120 years ago. Yeah, I was like, why that's so 538 00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:28,520 high? I've asked when they were pretty 539 00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:31,120 big dogs to Tampa Bay and Brady, I think. 540 00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:32,200 Oh. That's right. 541 00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:34,640 It was when he was, it was like hurts his first year as a 542 00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:36,240 starter. We played a good bit of Goddard 543 00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:40,480 that year, yeah. The year before, in 2020 was 544 00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:44,640 Washington and they were 82%. That's when they were huge dogs 545 00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:46,120 at Tampa Bay with Taylor Heineke. 546 00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,400 Yeah. And they almost won that game. 547 00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,280 They had the ball in the fourth quarter down 5. 548 00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:54,240 God. There's usually another team 549 00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:59,240 like LA was faded 74% of the time in 2020 New England. 550 00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,960 Miami started someone other than two a couple years ago. 551 00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:03,640 They started like who? Skyler. 552 00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:07,040 Tyler Thompson. Miami was 82% that year, Seattle 553 00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:09,520 was 86. Because I think they weren't. 554 00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:11,520 Did they have? Do you know her? 555 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:13,200 They were just bad. There's bad. 556 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:17,000 They were just, yeah. Green Bay last year was 74% 557 00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:19,760 beta, so there's usually like not just one mega Theta team but 558 00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:21,240 two. And this year I think pretty 559 00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:23,760 clearly it'll be the Steelers and the Broncos. 560 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:27,280 I have an 85 Steelers and 80 for the Broncos. 561 00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:31,800 So that Miami year, I think like their DST was optimal when the 562 00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:34,440 kicker was and like. No one I remember that. 563 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,920 Dude, that's right. No one played like everyone hard 564 00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,720 faded, no one saw faded my. I think Sanders was actually 565 00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:43,280 awesome too but the DST ended up being optimal. 566 00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:47,480 But just no one played the even the the kicker DST. 567 00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:49,840 They just straight up hard faded everything. 568 00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:53,640 That's right. But it is this this the bracket 569 00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,280 feels weird this year. There's and Ben was talking 570 00:29:56,280 --> 00:30:02,320 about it like I don't know, but there's aren't there usually 571 00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:06,080 more big dogs round one or no, I don't know, I guess we have two 572 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:06,840 big dogs. It's a weird. 573 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:10,360 It's a weird year for sure. All right, Pat, let's head to 574 00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:12,440 our next matchup. What do you want to dial up? 575 00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:20,040 Let's go to the Eagles. And here I, I, I switched it. 576 00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:22,720 So I'm sharing the Eagles and the Packers. 577 00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:31,240 OK. Yeah, All right, so Barkley, so 578 00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:34,520 I've I've made the change. I, I lowered Hertz from 12 to 9 579 00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:39,920 based on your guys notes. Lamar went up from 27 to 30 a 580 00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:43,960 little more to Damonte Smith at three people were were real 581 00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:48,120 psyched at him at 2. So he he comes up at 3 AT crown 582 00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:52,600 goes to 11, Saquon up to 70, making him the chalkiest player 583 00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:56,440 have projected. And then Josh Jacobs. 584 00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:58,720 I think we'll catch it. Decent amount of ownership. 585 00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,440 He's still like pretty highly drafted in the playoff. 586 00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:05,120 Best ball stuff. He just sets the obvious way to 587 00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,360 play the Packers. You don't have to worry. 588 00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:10,440 Like no one wants to try to predict which guy. 589 00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:13,040 I mean Craft maybe kept this. Probably high for Craft to be 590 00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:14,880 honest. He's probably more like 2. 591 00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:19,400 And then people, just people will fade them at a pretty high 592 00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:23,480 clip as well. Yeah, I mean, one of the things 593 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:28,000 about the bracket this year with the Ravens and and Bills both 594 00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:31,000 being such big favorites is even if one of those teams does get 595 00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:35,760 upset, then you have the other one say, you know, we got Leonie 596 00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:36,960 here. Say the Ravens get upset. 597 00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:40,480 The Bills are now a home team against a weaker opponent in the 598 00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:42,640 in the second round. So it's more likely to be Josh 599 00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:46,040 Allen and Casey's opponent just got weaker instead of having 600 00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,720 like the Chargers potentially or maybe Houston coming to them, 601 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:53,120 they get Pittsburgh or whatever. And and now the the Bills are 602 00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:56,120 playing the winner of Houston and the Chargers, which means 603 00:31:56,120 --> 00:32:00,080 even if you want to play something wonky on the AFC side, 604 00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:03,400 the bracket doesn't. It just gets chalkier. 605 00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:05,560 It just sets up for an AFC title game. 606 00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:10,120 That's KC verse the non upset Buffalo or Baltimore team. 607 00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:11,720 That's the way you would just play it in the second round. 608 00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:16,360 My point being, I do think a lot of people are going to, because 609 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,520 you double up on two of the six matchups in the wild card round 610 00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:22,200 with actual players. You play both sides of it. 611 00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:26,520 I do think a lot of people are going to do both of those on the 612 00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:28,160 NFC side. I think they're going to do 613 00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:31,280 potentially this Philly and Green Bay game or either of the 614 00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:34,240 other two games, but maybe the Rams and Vikings are going to be 615 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,200 the most likely with Puka and and Jefferson. 616 00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:40,120 But this one is, I think you're right about having Jacobs there 617 00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:42,280 because people are just like, I'm going to play the AFC side 618 00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,080 as being pretty shocked and play the NFC side as being a little 619 00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:48,640 bit tough to predict. Yeah. 620 00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:51,960 And so I think you want to compare Jacobs to you want to 621 00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:58,680 compare Jacobs to like Mixon and Nico on the other side, Mixon, 622 00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:02,800 you know, to the Texans. Like I can take Jacobs or I can 623 00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:05,040 take a Texan, but I got to figure out which Texan I want to 624 00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:07,040 take. Jacobs is like, I think comfier 625 00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:10,560 I or people fade the Packers more than I'm thinking. 626 00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:13,720 That's, that's kind of a, that's one of the things that I need to 627 00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:15,400 like get sentiment on throughout the week. 628 00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:17,920 I feel like you're right on Jacobs. 629 00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:21,560 I mean, they've been playing such boomer ball and like you 630 00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:24,800 said, people have to I the vibes with the Texans are so so. 631 00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:25,280 Bad. Yeah. 632 00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:28,320 No one wants to play the Texans. No one wants to play the Texans 633 00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:31,480 to win, let alone, like you said, have to decide between two 634 00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:34,760 guys. Nixon's on a pretty bad run 635 00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:37,240 after having, you know, a pretty good season before that. 636 00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:42,040 I I think you're right here with Jacobs being pretty high owned 637 00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:45,440 and. Barkley, I wanted to ask what's 638 00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:47,320 the highest in the field? Like last year and the year 639 00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:49,040 before, you were just doing some of the highest fades. 640 00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:50,640 Who were the highest individual players? 641 00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:53,200 Yeah, that's a huge difference this year too. 642 00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:55,160 The highest individual players last. 643 00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:57,360 Year in actual ownership the last couple years. 644 00:33:57,360 --> 00:34:00,480 We had some Devante Adams 90% years. 645 00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:02,680 I'll pull it. Up, yeah. 646 00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:09,800 So last year CD Lamb 87% Christian McCaffrey 79. 647 00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:15,080 Amman Ross 78. Pittsburgh Fade 76, Green Bay 648 00:34:15,159 --> 00:34:19,440 Bay 59, Tyreek 50. So that's everyone 50% or above 649 00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:24,000 and then pull up 2022 quickly. Let's see. 650 00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:27,800 But like 4 skill players. Higher than the highest guy you 651 00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:29,320 have this year. So it's like definitely. 652 00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:33,280 Different dynamic, yeah. And, And two years ago. 653 00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:36,920 McCaffrey 77. Justin Jefferson 77. 654 00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,159 Kelsey 74. Eckler 70. 655 00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:46,840 So can I ask you why in your projections are you not going 656 00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:49,679 higher? Do you think that the field is 657 00:34:49,679 --> 00:34:50,920 going to be a little bit sharper? 658 00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:52,480 Are you noticing a trend like that? 659 00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:57,400 Like on the pivots? It wasn't intentional to to keep 660 00:34:57,400 --> 00:35:03,000 kind of keep things low that like, it's more that like, you 661 00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:05,080 know, maybe I have Hertz way too high, right? 662 00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:06,600 Maybe people just don't play Hertz. 663 00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:10,320 Maybe people don't play A.J. Brown, but when you think about 664 00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:13,120 like Gibbs, Amanrah is an incredible play. 665 00:35:13,240 --> 00:35:15,280 So I think Amanrah kind of keeps him in. 666 00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:20,040 He's one of the candidates to be super chalk, but he he's kept in 667 00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:21,960 check. Kelsey's kept in check by like 668 00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:24,840 not really being Kelsey anymore. The people aren't going to want 669 00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:26,480 to click him. They feel like they have to 670 00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:29,000 click him, probably a decent amount, but they don't want to. 671 00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:32,520 But Saquon's the 1:00 where they're the 2C. 672 00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:34,920 They had a great year. He's the highest scoring running 673 00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,360 back. Like even Philly DST 4%. 674 00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:39,440 I feel like that's just all going to go to Saquon. 675 00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:43,160 You're probably right that people just don't play. 676 00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:48,280 Don't just don't fade, Billy. I do think the dynamic is 677 00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:51,120 different though, this year than any other year, just in the 678 00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:53,360 makeup of the teams. Like Pat's saying he didn't do 679 00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:56,240 it intentionally. You know, it's just when you go 680 00:35:56,240 --> 00:36:00,320 team by team, even like who you want to play like even 681 00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:04,680 projection wise it shouldn't be there shouldn't be players as 682 00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:06,400 highly owned as they were last year. 683 00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:09,480 That's. Right, directionally, that's. 684 00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:11,360 What he was just describing, like when you go through the 685 00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:14,560 team, yeah, it's just. Weird, Saquan maybe comes high 686 00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:19,600 but like God if you play you know Philly's like 35% to lose. 687 00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:22,160 You know, a running back who doesn't catch passes and a loss. 688 00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:25,080 Yeah. And, and part of it, Ben was 689 00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:28,200 like, I think when like, what are we trying to do? 690 00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:30,200 And like we're immediately like, oh, let's play some A.J. 691 00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:32,960 Brown. You know, I could see us now. 692 00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:35,520 Part of it too is I don't know the Hertz status yet. 693 00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:38,120 So I have it like a little bit, the fate is probably a little 694 00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:40,280 too high. I'm kind of middling that a 695 00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:43,480 little bit like I think that'll come down to like percent. 696 00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:47,160 Most high in the end. Eagles moved to four. 75. 697 00:36:48,720 --> 00:36:51,280 The Packers still still have pretty good odds to make it to 698 00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:53,200 the Super Bowl as you were saying people are. 699 00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:57,600 People are still playing the futures on the Packers. 700 00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:00,960 Like in the in the underdog streets. 701 00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:02,600 People are still drafting Packers because they have the 702 00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:05,040 4th best odds in the entire. I know it's. 703 00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:06,960 Weird. NFC as a seven seed? 704 00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:11,440 Yeah, probably. Hot the Philly fade that that 705 00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:15,320 probably comes down. It is interesting. 706 00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:16,800 I mean, this is like the only one. 707 00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:19,040 Those other teams you named, everything you said made perfect 708 00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:20,560 sense. This is the only one where I 709 00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:25,200 feel kind of like maybe he could push AD, but the Packers being 710 00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:27,440 the opponent does make it a little tricky, right? 711 00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:31,480 No one's playing Hertz then like Hertz is Hertz is 5 four if he 712 00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:33,240 pushes 80 like it's got to come from A.J. 713 00:37:33,240 --> 00:37:35,240 Brown and Hertz. And maybe that maybe that's 714 00:37:35,240 --> 00:37:37,880 people how people play it. But I mean Hertz is a high 715 00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,880 scoring quarterback like and he's the two seed. 716 00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:43,520 He's probably overselling it, what he's going to be I. 717 00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:45,800 Think he's probably right being like 7:00-ish but I don't think 718 00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:47,720 he get he gets like some 5 or anything. 719 00:37:47,720 --> 00:37:48,600 Right. I don't think he does. 720 00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:50,680 I haven't. Or I'd be afraid to project it 721 00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:52,360 that way at least. Like, yeah. 722 00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:54,600 Because who else are you picking in the NFC to win? 723 00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:57,680 Like it's, I mean, you're either playing the Lions or like, if 724 00:37:57,680 --> 00:38:00,080 you want to do anything else on the NFC side, you're like, I 725 00:38:00,240 --> 00:38:02,320 want to go to the Eagles, right? Like who's going to make the 726 00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:03,560 run? He'd get four games. 727 00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:06,520 He could, he could score 8 rushing TDs in the playoffs. 728 00:38:06,720 --> 00:38:08,880 Like he could score 2A game for four games. 729 00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:15,520 The, and again, I, I do think a lot like if we get tomorrow, you 730 00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:18,480 know, Jalen Hurts cleared from the concussion protocol, I think 731 00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:22,960 we might start to see sentiment build versus, you know, a lot of 732 00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,520 people will just like build a lineup on a Wednesday or 733 00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:28,120 Thursday, you know, and, and lock it in and whatever. 734 00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:30,920 So like that does play into, I think the ownership on the 735 00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:34,080 fringes here with that kind of stuff. 736 00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:39,080 There's a decent amount of love in the chat for kind of like one 737 00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:42,840 off Packers wide receiver stuff. People referencing kind of Romeo 738 00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:46,840 Dobbs big game last year. Obviously Dontavian Wicks earns 739 00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,560 more targets without Christian Watson, maybe a little more 740 00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:52,360 Tucker Kraft love. Is there a chance people try to 741 00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:55,400 take stabs on Packers in like a shootout loss? 742 00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:59,440 I think, I think this is we are on ship chasing and we are 743 00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:01,880 surrounded by people who watch ship chasing like this. 744 00:39:02,240 --> 00:39:05,480 The the Packers live series, I think are just it's a headache 745 00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:09,760 and like I've drafted a bunch of play at baseball teams today. 746 00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:13,120 Dobbs doesn't get drafted on DraftKings where like you have 747 00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:15,160 to you have to get through round one. 748 00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:18,200 It's one of six advanced there. And like he's an adventory 749 00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:19,480 piece. He's a pretty solid adventory 750 00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:22,280 piece at at the very last round, you know, 12th round. 751 00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:27,120 He mostly goes undrafted, reads read his cratered like I I don't 752 00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:29,680 think there's just much much interest in these Packers 753 00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:31,720 pieces. Sentiment on Packers doesn't 754 00:39:31,720 --> 00:39:35,080 seem super strong. You think craft because of tight 755 00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:39,680 end being so? That's I had it at 3% and chat 756 00:39:39,680 --> 00:39:43,240 was kind of pushing that down. So maybe I'll bring that up 757 00:39:43,240 --> 00:39:45,200 slightly. But I will just caution too, 758 00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:47,640 there's there's a difference in in chat when you're you know, 759 00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:49,960 there's a difference in being like, I want to play that guy as 760 00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:52,960 a leverage piece because I love how low that percentage is in 761 00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:55,720 actually predicting what the field is gonna do, which is the 762 00:39:55,720 --> 00:39:58,080 goal of this. We'll get to galbraiding more 763 00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:00,280 like the goal is to predict what the field is gonna do. 764 00:40:00,720 --> 00:40:02,120 Yeah, but it is an interesting point. 765 00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:05,160 Leonie was talking about how how boomer they've been. 766 00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:07,360 Sorry, go ahead. I was going to say, I don't know 767 00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:10,640 if it's easy to bring up last year's, but I, I know every year 768 00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:14,560 I'm like, sometimes I think Pat's insane when I'm looking at 769 00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:15,280 these. And then? 770 00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:19,600 Then we get the actuals and like DK Metcalf's like 6% or 771 00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:22,040 something and I'm like, yeah, like like like what? 772 00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:26,120 Like it went even further than than we than we thought. 773 00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,720 I know I miss high sometimes on the ones we think are like 774 00:40:28,720 --> 00:40:33,560 really low. It's like I was too high last 775 00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:35,600 year. So last year I thought 9% of the 776 00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:37,520 field would play Jaden Reed and 8% played and. 777 00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:40,480 We were 3% of that. And we were three. 778 00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:45,320 Percent, yeah, to back over, he ran like 50%. 779 00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:49,400 Round Gibbs Gibbs if you if you remember Gibbs had a really hot 780 00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:52,240 end to the fantasy season was like one of the guys you know 781 00:40:52,240 --> 00:40:54,320 you'd see in in the finals and stuff for the best bowl 782 00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:56,600 tournaments. But Aman Rob was the chalk last 783 00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,280 year. Gibbs I projected for 20% came 784 00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:02,760 in at 16. So it's just like shit condenses 785 00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:05,440 man, like. It and the Packers are a good 786 00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:08,160 example of that dynamic we talked about at the top of the 787 00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:10,600 show where if you want to play the Packers in a high scoring 788 00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:13,640 loss, then like the one off stuff definitely makes sense 789 00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:15,440 with some of the receivers who've shown a ceiling. 790 00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:18,800 But if you play them as a win or an upset, then it's like what? 791 00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:22,000 Who on this team is out scoring Josh Jacobs over two games? 792 00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:26,120 Maybe Jordan Love in like 2 shootouts, but it's probably 793 00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:29,160 Josh Jacobs in that scenario. When you just said that 794 00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:31,720 condenses thing, and I think you're saying it right on the 795 00:41:31,720 --> 00:41:34,560 Packers, it makes me think AJ Brown's going to get, he's going 796 00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:36,840 to be the 6% dude. It's not Hurts. 797 00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:42,360 Yeah, maybe. Maybe, but I I think too like 798 00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:47,000 the I don't know which of these guys to take thing is like a 799 00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:51,480 real feeling people have like the mix in Nico, you know, the 800 00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:54,240 the three Packers received it. I think people feel pretty 801 00:41:54,240 --> 00:41:57,320 confident in saying, like, you know, if I'm playing a Green Bay 802 00:41:57,560 --> 00:41:59,560 or a Philly loss, I might play A.J. 803 00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:03,640 Brown, I think. Yeah, I mean, part of it is I 804 00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:06,800 really, I, I kind of like after the the best ball season, I, I 805 00:42:06,800 --> 00:42:08,440 don't want to miss low on Saquon. 806 00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:14,160 So I did get him up to 75. That's maybe too high. 807 00:42:14,160 --> 00:42:15,440 Maybe I'm overdoing it. I don't know. 808 00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:17,800 I. Think 75 is probably OK, 8080 809 00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:21,200 might have. 80 is too high. It's nice sometimes. 810 00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:24,000 Is that part of this exercise to like push it and see like where 811 00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:26,240 it starts to feel shaky? And I think Saquon is one of 812 00:42:26,240 --> 00:42:30,120 those guys where like people are going to find that like that 813 00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:32,640 frontier of like what? How much is too much? 814 00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:34,160 They'll be like right at that level. 815 00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:37,600 So and I just, I think he was too low before. 816 00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:40,160 I don't think there's going to be a ton of people that play 817 00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:42,200 them to lose, but I also don't know that there's going to be a 818 00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:45,200 ton of people that play like this way of Hertz lower to go 819 00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:47,720 all the way to the Super Bowl and you're like, well, if they 820 00:42:47,720 --> 00:42:50,840 make a little bit of a run two games or three games, then it's 821 00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:52,280 Saquon. That's what you're telling 822 00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:54,560 yourself cuz it in what's the? Saquon in the Super Bowl, like I 823 00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:57,400 mean imagine it's one of those blow up games in the Super. 824 00:42:57,400 --> 00:42:57,720 Bowl. Sure. 825 00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:01,840 Oh, I promise you the Boomers are imagining that. 826 00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:04,120 Yes, they are. We're. 827 00:43:04,160 --> 00:43:05,680 Salivating on it, Yeah. Oh. 828 00:43:07,120 --> 00:43:09,480 Man. All right, so we go to the next 829 00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:11,360 one. Yeah, let's let's move on here. 830 00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:15,040 I'll put these if you guys are watching after the fact or 831 00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:17,240 whatnot. I'll put the timestamps for all 832 00:43:17,240 --> 00:43:20,720 of the matchups if you guys want to toggle around to specific 833 00:43:20,720 --> 00:43:23,720 teams here. All right, so we'll go. 834 00:43:23,720 --> 00:43:27,720 We'll finish up the NFC, right when we done. 835 00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:29,160 Oh, no, no, we started Pittsburgh. 836 00:43:29,240 --> 00:43:32,760 Yeah, well, whatever. We'll stay in the NFC we're at. 837 00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:35,560 3 1/2 hours. Yeah, wait, too good to speed. 838 00:43:36,640 --> 00:43:37,520 Up. Yeah, we'll, we'll get it. 839 00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:39,480 We'll get these 15 minute segments down to 10. 840 00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:44,720 All right, so Bucky and Mike Evans are going to be kind of 841 00:43:44,720 --> 00:43:48,000 coach chalk. Not a ton of fades of this game. 842 00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:52,280 I think in general, you know, most people play both sides. 843 00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:56,160 Tara Mclaurin, I think pretty big chalk just as like I need. 844 00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:58,200 I want to play a high total game. 845 00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:00,440 He's sort of an obvious click hurts though. 846 00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:03,080 The secondary tight end chalk behind. 847 00:44:03,080 --> 00:44:06,200 I have him over Mark Andrews behind Kelsey. 848 00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:10,560 Because you're not playing the QB there and there's no Derrick 849 00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:12,480 Henry. I mean, like, Mclaurin's a 850 00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:14,760 strong play, but he's not Derrick Henry. 851 00:44:14,760 --> 00:44:17,520 And you're like, I mean, what other option might I have for 852 00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:18,640 Washington? And you're just like, yeah, 853 00:44:18,640 --> 00:44:19,800 well, this will all fill my tight end. 854 00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:22,000 But everyone in the chat last night was like it Ernst is to 855 00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:23,600 play. It's like their first thought. 856 00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:25,160 Everyone came to the same first. Yeah. 857 00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:30,640 I see this and I think, wow, Jayden Daniels at 2% is a smash. 858 00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:34,960 But then I think what Gretch said about the AFC side where 859 00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:39,000 it's like good chance one of Lamar or Allen's get in three 860 00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:43,360 games, like pretty and then you need Jayden to probably go three 861 00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:46,760 games, not just I don't think he can get there in two if that's 862 00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:48,280 a. Lot of good quarterbacks this 863 00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:52,000 year, man, because Hertz is, you know, a third one. 864 00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:54,320 You could say I could play three games too and he'd have to beat. 865 00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:58,680 One thing Brennan knows, the defenses seem high. 866 00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:02,360 One thing I struggled with is that like my initial fade was 867 00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:06,360 like an extra 50% high. Like I think there's lots of 868 00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:08,360 teams where you're like, I don't need to play them. 869 00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:11,080 There's I think that something the field might struggle with is 870 00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:12,680 like, ah, shit, I got to play commander. 871 00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:15,480 Now who do I play? Oh, Terry, that's kind of what 872 00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:17,280 I'm thinking has happened. There's not like that many. 873 00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:21,040 And so therefore, I think the game, the game environments that 874 00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:26,200 look enticing will catch a lot of ownership because you just 875 00:45:26,200 --> 00:45:28,360 don't want to play like half these teams almost. 876 00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:31,160 Do you think people might play the kicker here? 877 00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:35,080 I'm like, hey, the total's high, but I don't want to play a guy 878 00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:36,600 and and they're probably going to lose. 879 00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:40,480 Yeah, what do I have? For the you have an 8, it's not 880 00:45:40,520 --> 00:45:42,480 like you don't have it. Maybe, yeah. 881 00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:46,160 I think normally the field approaches the highest total 882 00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:49,000 game is like, let me have my cake and eat it too. 883 00:45:49,000 --> 00:45:52,760 Let me let me play both sides of this like in the same way and 884 00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:54,520 we'll get to it. Like we're going to see so much 885 00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:57,080 Puka and Jefferson. Like you're going to see a ton 886 00:45:57,080 --> 00:45:59,480 of 1 of Bucky or Evans with McCoy. 887 00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:01,800 You know, like people are going to want to play that as a mini 888 00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:04,920 correlation shootout game. I don't get burned either way. 889 00:46:04,920 --> 00:46:07,040 I shrug my shoulders at who's actually going to win. 890 00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:09,200 Right. It's all the NFC games that 891 00:46:09,200 --> 00:46:10,360 people are going to want to do that on. 892 00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:12,320 They're not going to want to do on any AFC games. 893 00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:15,800 If you want to get you play both sides of an AFC game and pick a 894 00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:25,200 winner in an NFC game. Yeah, the yeah, I see a comment 895 00:46:25,200 --> 00:46:28,200 in the chat. Maybe like that Bucky and Evans 896 00:46:28,200 --> 00:46:30,520 could even combine for more than that. 897 00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:33,280 I could see them combining for more than 75. 898 00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:36,560 Yeah. And so the way that would happen 899 00:46:36,560 --> 00:46:40,480 is people just don't fade Tampa Bay like at all. 900 00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:45,920 And we have seen that like the Lions last year were 3% faded 901 00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:49,040 and they had like a 10% chance to make the Super Bowl. 902 00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:51,040 It's like, I don't care, I'm playing them. 903 00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:56,080 So at the the Rams last year had a 5% chance to make the Super 904 00:46:56,080 --> 00:46:58,280 Bowl and 5% of the field faded them. 905 00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:00,920 So that that is a good note full. 906 00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:03,720 Full fade at 7%. I would I would probably hammer 907 00:47:03,720 --> 00:47:07,000 the under on that for Tampa. Yeah, I need to, I need to 908 00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:09,000 decrease the fades on these guys, yeah. 909 00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:12,360 There's such a chaotic team, even if they lose, you know that 910 00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:14,480 they're going to put up fantasy points, you know? 911 00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:18,400 I mean, people want that. Do you think people treat 912 00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:20,400 Washington at all like that? Or is it Tampa Bay? 913 00:47:20,440 --> 00:47:22,000 They just. It's harder to pick guys on 914 00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:24,440 Washington. I feel like Tampa Bay is just so 915 00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:26,200 easy to. It's so easy. 916 00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:30,800 Yeah, yeah, that's a good note that that Evans and and Bucky 917 00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:33,200 are too low. I just said to get different 918 00:47:33,440 --> 00:47:35,800 play the AFC, you know, pick a winner in this game, etcetera. 919 00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:38,840 But I do I mean, even on the teams where we we play 920 00:47:38,840 --> 00:47:42,320 Washington to win, I do like Tampa's like the the 921 00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:44,080 quintessential team. We're in a loss. 922 00:47:44,160 --> 00:47:45,800 They're going to be, they're going to have a skill player 923 00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:47,880 that gets. Bucky and Mike got to push 924 00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:54,240 probably like 85% combined. Yeah, Yeah, I do think Bucky has 925 00:47:54,240 --> 00:47:57,080 more of it because part of it is like, well, if I'm going to play 926 00:47:57,080 --> 00:48:01,400 them to win, I might as well, you know, take the running back 927 00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:05,880 who projects higher. Look, what am I getting? 928 00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:08,000 I'm getting more games than I'm getting good game script. 929 00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:10,560 In game, I think Bucky should be like 65%. 930 00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:14,120 So I mean the fact, whatever the, the, I mean the fact that 931 00:48:14,120 --> 00:48:17,560 the team the we talked about. It last night, but I think 932 00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:19,000 there's like a spell. I don't. 933 00:48:19,000 --> 00:48:22,400 I don't know if Bucky gets away from Big Mike too much. 934 00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:25,040 No, no, sorry. I think he should be. 935 00:48:25,040 --> 00:48:26,240 I don't. We're talking. 936 00:48:26,240 --> 00:48:29,040 I'm doing the thing that Pete just told the chat not to do, 937 00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:32,320 not in the ownership projections, but like the way 938 00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:34,360 the optimal. I think he should be much higher 939 00:48:34,360 --> 00:48:35,800 than this. Yeah. 940 00:48:35,800 --> 00:48:37,720 So I'm just curious the way the market will play it because when 941 00:48:37,720 --> 00:48:39,360 we talked about it last night, we thought it would be kind of 942 00:48:39,360 --> 00:48:40,680 split. It'll be interesting. 943 00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:43,240 Yeah, I'll tell you what, I don't. 944 00:48:43,400 --> 00:48:45,880 I don't want to go to a party with anyone who put, you know, 945 00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:48,080 builds one line up and has Chase McLaughlin in it. 946 00:48:48,200 --> 00:48:49,520 You know that that's kind of just how. 947 00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:55,440 I I just lowered them off of that, that's enough. 948 00:48:56,040 --> 00:49:00,680 They go to the party heuristic. All right, Yeah, I lowered their 949 00:49:00,680 --> 00:49:05,200 total fade down to 5, which is almost half of KC, but I feel 950 00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:07,320 like that that feels actually corrected as far as what the. 951 00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:10,040 Feels the chat saying Otten 0. Is Otten not going to play? 952 00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:11,560 I haven't been paying attention to his health. 953 00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:17,360 He is low. He's like 5050 I think. 954 00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:19,880 We haven't projected out right now, but I I think it's kind of 955 00:49:19,880 --> 00:49:21,960 a toss up. He practiced some last week so 956 00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:24,560 it's not it would not be crazy if he played. 957 00:49:25,280 --> 00:49:28,840 If he plays, I feel like 1%'s actually low. 958 00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:31,400 Is that weird? He can catch a bunch of balls he 959 00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:33,360 did in the playoffs last year. He was the optimal play for 960 00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:38,120 Tampa last year. Yeah, but I, I mean, it's 961 00:49:38,120 --> 00:49:39,880 probably not getting higher than three though. 962 00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:42,080 You just don't need the tight end though, because like, you're 963 00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:43,600 just Kelsey. You're just like I play Kelsey 964 00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:46,680 whenever. Yeah, and those like Target hog 965 00:49:46,680 --> 00:49:50,240 games for him feel so long ago, you know, for how people 966 00:49:50,320 --> 00:49:53,080 perceive K dot and like they might even in people's head be 967 00:49:53,080 --> 00:49:55,600 like, is he going to come back and split snaps with Payne 968 00:49:55,600 --> 00:49:58,320 Durham kind of thing? You know, I can't see people 969 00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:02,440 being excited about him. All right, so that unlocks some 970 00:50:02,440 --> 00:50:04,320 fade. So I'll probably end up raising 971 00:50:04,320 --> 00:50:08,760 like the the Packers will fade a little bit, but we can I'll do 972 00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:10,840 that after the show. But but yeah, so, OK, so 973 00:50:10,840 --> 00:50:17,480 condense this more so that it's it's really Bucky and Evans and. 974 00:50:17,600 --> 00:50:20,120 You've got it all within 92% on those two. 975 00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:23,920 Yeah. I think that's I think that's 976 00:50:23,920 --> 00:50:27,480 probably right. They might be right by I'd 977 00:50:27,480 --> 00:50:29,040 probably have them a little closer. 978 00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:31,760 Closer You wouldn't have Buck. I was just gonna say that Bucky 979 00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:34,040 55 is. Like 52 Leon, if you want them 980 00:50:34,040 --> 00:50:35,840 closer you gotta adjust the ETR projection. 981 00:50:36,920 --> 00:50:39,760 I did, I already did. We have we have Evans ahead in 982 00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:42,160 points per game. OK, OK, good. 983 00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:45,080 There you go, Basic. We have them basically the same. 984 00:50:45,480 --> 00:50:48,120 We have them like both right around like 19 points per game. 985 00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:53,000 Yeah, looks like you got a but Evans higher cuz he's the 986 00:50:53,000 --> 00:50:56,040 boomer. No, we got to make people think 987 00:50:56,080 --> 00:50:58,960 Bucky's going to be. There, there's a reason we put 988 00:50:58,960 --> 00:51:02,360 these guys as as Co boomer chalk picks last night. 989 00:51:02,360 --> 00:51:04,640 It's it's really hard. You can make really strong 990 00:51:04,640 --> 00:51:06,920 cases. That's where people going either 991 00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:11,720 way in their lineups. Any other thoughts on 992 00:51:11,720 --> 00:51:14,560 Washington? We didn't talk a ton about. 993 00:51:14,560 --> 00:51:17,520 There was a little shock at the Zach Ertz number. 994 00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:19,640 I think that's way more a product of the tight end 995 00:51:19,640 --> 00:51:22,760 position than it is like people loving ertz right? 996 00:51:24,040 --> 00:51:27,960 Yeah, it's zero opportunity. Cost people have to play someone 997 00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:30,200 on Washington like you said, like people want to play both 998 00:51:30,200 --> 00:51:33,640 sides of the high total game and it's just. 999 00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:35,640 And they, they don't want to any higher. 1000 00:51:36,160 --> 00:51:40,360 If you're doing like 3 lineups, are you playing Kelsey on all of 1001 00:51:40,360 --> 00:51:42,120 them or are you playing them on like two of them and you're the 1002 00:51:42,120 --> 00:51:44,800 third one you're like, let's play Hertz and then gets this 1003 00:51:44,800 --> 00:51:47,040 off like, you know what? I just have, I struggle with 1004 00:51:47,040 --> 00:51:52,240 Kelsey being like 75 percent, 80% like he has been in the past 1005 00:51:53,160 --> 00:51:54,680 because he's just not who he was in the past. 1006 00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:58,800 He was 74% two years ago, but this year and I don't see that. 1007 00:52:00,960 --> 00:52:03,600 I was just going to say, I think the recency bias of what Zach 1008 00:52:03,600 --> 00:52:06,840 Ertz did in Week 17 is probably carrying like seven of these 1009 00:52:06,840 --> 00:52:08,880 percentage points. You know, like if he had just 1010 00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:11,600 come into that without that game, it would be way lower. 1011 00:52:12,240 --> 00:52:14,200 And, and again, we're talking about what the field's going to 1012 00:52:14,200 --> 00:52:16,120 do. Like Zach Ertz to me strikes me 1013 00:52:16,120 --> 00:52:19,840 as the, the, the, the type of play where it's like people 1014 00:52:19,840 --> 00:52:22,120 playing, Pat was saying this last night, people playing, but 1015 00:52:22,120 --> 00:52:24,080 they're not excited about playing him, but they're playing 1016 00:52:24,080 --> 00:52:25,800 because he fits. He fits the parameters. 1017 00:52:25,800 --> 00:52:27,040 They want to get a Washington in. 1018 00:52:27,040 --> 00:52:28,920 They need to get a tight end in because they decide they don't 1019 00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:30,720 want to play Kelsey. They're not excited about 1020 00:52:30,720 --> 00:52:32,480 Kelsey. They don't want to fade any of 1021 00:52:32,480 --> 00:52:34,160 the other players. You have to fade to play a tight 1022 00:52:34,160 --> 00:52:35,560 end anywhere else. You want to go tight end, you 1023 00:52:35,560 --> 00:52:38,160 got to fade somebody meaningful. And so they're like, I'll just 1024 00:52:38,160 --> 00:52:42,720 play Zach Ertz and we're happy to be under this number. 1025 00:52:42,720 --> 00:52:44,240 But then also Zach Ertz scores 3 touchdowns. 1026 00:52:44,240 --> 00:52:50,680 So it's going to be fun. Like it's he's not a good play, 1027 00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:52,840 but he's going to he's going to catch more ownership than he 1028 00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:54,840 should is what I would say at least. 1029 00:52:54,840 --> 00:52:59,400 I feel that way. The yeah. 1030 00:52:59,400 --> 00:53:04,080 And then the stuff like no, no one's getting, no one's getting 1031 00:53:04,080 --> 00:53:07,000 into the running backs on the commanders. 1032 00:53:07,520 --> 00:53:09,040 I just don't know how you get there. 1033 00:53:09,320 --> 00:53:15,520 No, no, Rob, that's like a little I, I, I throw in 1%, you 1034 00:53:15,520 --> 00:53:18,080 know, just to kind of keep keep things in check a little bit. 1035 00:53:18,080 --> 00:53:21,680 But yeah, that's where's the key is and we. 1036 00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:25,320 Did KC next cuz I kind of do think Kelsey could get out of 1037 00:53:25,320 --> 00:53:31,080 control again. OK, yeah, so Casey, the one 1038 00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:33,440 seed, let's talk the two one seeds. 1039 00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:37,240 Yeah. All right, so Casey, I have 60 1040 00:53:37,240 --> 00:53:44,520 to Kelsey, 20 to Worthy, 4% Pacheco. 20 We That's a ship 1041 00:53:44,520 --> 00:53:47,240 chasing number. That's that's yeah, I think you 1042 00:53:47,240 --> 00:53:50,240 gotta go 10 shift 10 from Worthy to Kelsey. 1043 00:53:51,080 --> 00:53:52,560 Yeah, I was gonna say 12 for Worthy. 1044 00:53:52,720 --> 00:53:56,520 OK, all right, but but then you guys are gonna be telling me 1045 00:53:56,520 --> 00:53:58,000 what a good plate worthy is at 12? 1046 00:53:58,760 --> 00:54:02,560 Yeah, we. Are that's all right, I'll give 1047 00:54:02,560 --> 00:54:06,360 you 15 then we're. Gonna give you 12. 1048 00:54:08,000 --> 00:54:12,760 I'm like, I don't know, Kelsey might just be people aren't 1049 00:54:12,760 --> 00:54:15,680 going to fade Casey. I think fading Casey and I get 1050 00:54:15,720 --> 00:54:17,080 they're going to have such an easy run. 1051 00:54:17,080 --> 00:54:18,600 Not easy, but. He's the. 1052 00:54:18,640 --> 00:54:22,240 Obvious, kind of interesting, but it's. 1053 00:54:22,400 --> 00:54:24,800 It's what you said about Alan last night, Pat, where they're 1054 00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:26,440 going to put a different tight end in their lineup. 1055 00:54:26,440 --> 00:54:28,080 They're going to get through their lineup and they're going 1056 00:54:28,080 --> 00:54:29,440 to go. I'm just going to put Kelsey in 1057 00:54:29,440 --> 00:54:33,320 this lineup and put, you know, whatever I'm going to two V2 1058 00:54:33,320 --> 00:54:34,480 and. They're not going to fade them 1059 00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:38,160 and they're not, I mean. It it's it's the perfect storm, 1060 00:54:38,160 --> 00:54:40,720 right? There is not an opportunity cost 1061 00:54:40,760 --> 00:54:44,680 at his own on his own team. It's a really weak position. 1062 00:54:44,880 --> 00:54:49,160 Clean path to the playoffs. History of smashing late in the 1063 00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:52,160 playoff runs like it is the perfect storm for mega chalk. 1064 00:54:53,400 --> 00:54:57,200 You don't need the like if you want to go to worthy, it's so 1065 00:54:57,200 --> 00:54:59,920 easy just to go play ertz on Washington or something. 1066 00:54:59,920 --> 00:55:02,360 So and that we don't expect Washington to get faded much. 1067 00:55:02,360 --> 00:55:05,400 So it's like, I think in order for him to be mega chalk, there 1068 00:55:05,400 --> 00:55:07,720 has to be positive sentiment on Kelsey. 1069 00:55:08,000 --> 00:55:10,320 Like you have to feel good about putting Kelsey in your lap. 1070 00:55:10,320 --> 00:55:12,480 And that's the part like, do people feel good about putting 1071 00:55:12,480 --> 00:55:14,800 Kelsey in the laps right now? I think there might be an 1072 00:55:14,800 --> 00:55:19,000 element of like Hollywood Browns back, they've got Nuke for the 1073 00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:21,640 playoffs. Like I don't know which receiver 1074 00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:23,480 to take. So I'm just going to click 1075 00:55:23,480 --> 00:55:26,360 Kelsey. I also think the thing we said 1076 00:55:26,360 --> 00:55:32,320 last night the the Kelsey did this last year. 1077 00:55:32,400 --> 00:55:35,000 We went into this last year thinking he had such a bad 1078 00:55:35,000 --> 00:55:37,200 second after the regular season and he wasn't the same guy and 1079 00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:38,640 he turned it on. The post season. 1080 00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:40,880 He's going to turn on when the lights are brightest. 1081 00:55:40,880 --> 00:55:42,400 Taylor Swift's going to be at all the games. 1082 00:55:42,400 --> 00:55:46,280 There's all the narratives are there, like he's he's going to 1083 00:55:46,280 --> 00:55:48,280 be playing all the snaps. They've been taking him out and 1084 00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:50,520 rotating in Noah Gray. It's going to be all Kelsey. 1085 00:55:51,520 --> 00:55:53,040 That may actually be what happens. 1086 00:55:53,040 --> 00:55:54,640 Like we may need to play some Kelsey. 1087 00:55:55,400 --> 00:55:57,320 I I'm like. Oh, we'll definitely have some, 1088 00:55:57,320 --> 00:55:59,160 Kelsey. Like we were joking about like 1089 00:55:59,160 --> 00:56:02,520 how we're going to push for worthy, but like, I imagine 1090 00:56:02,520 --> 00:56:05,240 we're going to end up with like 50% Travis Kelsey. 1091 00:56:05,600 --> 00:56:09,920 Yeah, like and that'll be underweight, I think you're. 1092 00:56:09,920 --> 00:56:12,160 Right, like that might be a floor on what we play. 1093 00:56:12,160 --> 00:56:15,960 I don't know, we'll see. But like, what are you going to? 1094 00:56:15,960 --> 00:56:19,280 Do you got to play a chief and who like the worthy play is not 1095 00:56:19,280 --> 00:56:21,320 an easy one. It's not Rasheed Rice last year. 1096 00:56:21,320 --> 00:56:24,200 Rasheed Rice last year was an easier click than Worthy is this 1097 00:56:24,200 --> 00:56:26,480 year for sure. And Pacheco, I think caught some 1098 00:56:26,480 --> 00:56:28,160 last year. Yeah, and he was helping. 1099 00:56:28,160 --> 00:56:30,480 It might have been the chalk. Let me see. 1100 00:56:31,520 --> 00:56:33,920 I don't think Pacheco. Who you guys think? 1101 00:56:34,840 --> 00:56:36,200 They they basically were coach Chalk. 1102 00:56:36,200 --> 00:56:39,640 It was 41, Kelsey 38. Pacheco last year, Rasheed. 1103 00:56:39,640 --> 00:56:42,400 10:00 You got Kareem Hunt catching 2% and Pacheco catching 1104 00:56:42,400 --> 00:56:44,240 2, and I don't think you're getting Casey's running backs 1105 00:56:44,240 --> 00:56:47,880 catching 4. That's the I still have Hunt. 1106 00:56:47,920 --> 00:56:51,240 Oh, I I yeah, Hunt should be 0. I know this is ownership, but 1107 00:56:51,240 --> 00:56:53,240 like the one thing that'll be interesting to talk through is 1108 00:56:53,240 --> 00:56:55,720 if it's worth soft fading KC at all. 1109 00:56:56,520 --> 00:56:57,960 Yeah, we were talking that last night. 1110 00:56:58,040 --> 00:57:02,040 Pete Pete's mentioned that their Rd. though is that's one thing I 1111 00:57:02,040 --> 00:57:07,560 struggle with because the Baltimore people did that last 1112 00:57:07,560 --> 00:57:10,280 year. 23% of fields faded Baltimore last year. 1113 00:57:10,280 --> 00:57:12,560 So it's not crazy to think that they would do that, but. 1114 00:57:14,320 --> 00:57:17,000 And I remember we looked at some stuff and we're like Justin 1115 00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:20,440 Tucker can get there in two games and I, and that's what 1116 00:57:20,440 --> 00:57:22,240 happened is Tucker did get there in. 1117 00:57:22,240 --> 00:57:24,760 Two and the the Chiefs are that team, right? 1118 00:57:24,760 --> 00:57:26,880 Like they play a lot of low scoring games. 1119 00:57:26,880 --> 00:57:29,640 They slow the game down, they spread it out. 1120 00:57:29,640 --> 00:57:33,080 Like you can see Gabes where Buttker, you know, hits a bunch 1121 00:57:33,080 --> 00:57:35,400 of field goals. But part of the thing with the 1122 00:57:35,400 --> 00:57:38,840 Ravens is Lamar runs the. Yeah, there's more completion 1123 00:57:38,920 --> 00:57:41,600 for the Chiefs. That's part of the issue. 1124 00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:45,920 You don't. Baltimore was like, hey, if 1125 00:57:45,920 --> 00:57:49,680 Lamar does his thing but only plays two games, then it might 1126 00:57:49,680 --> 00:57:52,680 just be nobody. No PPRS out there, Yeah. 1127 00:57:52,680 --> 00:57:54,840 Does anyone play Holmes? That's the other question. 1128 00:57:55,880 --> 00:57:57,520 Probably people just don't play him right. 1129 00:57:58,080 --> 00:58:00,320 I think 4%'s probably. Right, 4% looks right. 1130 00:58:00,680 --> 00:58:05,520 That's right, yeah. Some people doesn't feel it's 1131 00:58:05,520 --> 00:58:06,960 not a there's. A lot of people saying they're 1132 00:58:06,960 --> 00:58:09,160 going to win the Super Bowl again and I want Patrick Malmes 1133 00:58:09,160 --> 00:58:12,240 in three games. Not a lot, but there's there's 1134 00:58:12,240 --> 00:58:17,600 4%, there's there's not zero I think, but. 1135 00:58:17,680 --> 00:58:23,160 Yeah, probably catches some more than fades, more than the 1136 00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:25,080 defense and the fade. Yeah. 1137 00:58:26,680 --> 00:58:27,680 Yeah, so I got. Maybe. 1138 00:58:28,240 --> 00:58:30,720 Maybe Mahomes, I don't know. He can only play three games and 1139 00:58:30,720 --> 00:58:32,960 one of Alan, and Lamar's kind of locked into three. 1140 00:58:32,960 --> 00:58:35,520 And yeah, he gets the double Super Bowl, but last year he 1141 00:58:35,520 --> 00:58:38,640 played four and Alan was the optimal in two. 1142 00:58:40,600 --> 00:58:43,760 Maybe people who in the know are like maybe Mahump comes in at 2, 1143 00:58:43,760 --> 00:58:47,640 I don't know. Yeah, I think, I think. 1144 00:58:47,640 --> 00:58:50,280 No, Mahomes 4 is. I want to put Mahomes at 2:00. 1145 00:58:50,960 --> 00:58:52,680 What about worthy? Is worthy too high? 1146 00:58:54,760 --> 00:58:58,080 No, that looks right. I mean, he finished the season 1147 00:58:58,080 --> 00:58:58,920 real strong. He did. 1148 00:58:59,200 --> 00:59:00,280 That's probably Where do you, Yeah. 1149 00:59:00,280 --> 00:59:03,000 Where do you guys start to freak out that we have to play worthy? 1150 00:59:03,000 --> 00:59:05,640 Is it right around here? Because that's that's where I 1151 00:59:05,640 --> 00:59:07,360 think it'll. I don't think I'm freaking out. 1152 00:59:07,360 --> 00:59:09,320 We got to play them. I think I agree with Leonie that 1153 00:59:09,320 --> 00:59:11,880 you still have to play Kelsey 50% even at this number. 1154 00:59:11,880 --> 00:59:15,400 Like I think you have to be comfortable playing some Travis 1155 00:59:15,400 --> 00:59:17,680 Kelsey at any. There might be an element of 1156 00:59:17,680 --> 00:59:21,880 like, I'm just going to win this contest elsewhere, yeah. 1157 00:59:22,720 --> 00:59:25,080 Right. I'm going to bring the fade up a 1158 00:59:25,080 --> 00:59:26,520 little. Bit how big of a gap is there in 1159 00:59:26,520 --> 00:59:28,640 your guys's projections, Leonie at tight end? 1160 00:59:29,520 --> 00:59:35,200 So we have we have Kelsey in points per game, about 3 points 1161 00:59:35,200 --> 00:59:39,920 ahead of Worthy, which isn't huge, but none of the other 1162 00:59:39,920 --> 00:59:42,640 teams have a tight end that's the highest projected skill 1163 00:59:42,640 --> 00:59:44,640 player. How much is the? 1164 00:59:44,640 --> 00:59:46,520 Gap. We also have Kelsey, so we have 1165 00:59:46,520 --> 00:59:50,840 Kelsey's the top point per game guy on his team and the top 1166 00:59:50,840 --> 00:59:52,960 tight end in points per game so much. 1167 00:59:53,200 --> 00:59:56,680 Over tight end two there. We haven't basically tied with 1168 00:59:56,680 --> 01:00:00,400 Laporta and then a couple point gap over Andrews. 1169 01:00:01,120 --> 01:00:03,400 And then, oh, no, no, let me look at the point. 1170 01:00:04,200 --> 01:00:07,400 And then we've got Andrews and Hawkinson like 2 points back. 1171 01:00:07,520 --> 01:00:09,400 And then you start getting into like. 1172 01:00:10,400 --> 01:00:11,920 But all of that is so much harder. 1173 01:00:11,920 --> 01:00:15,400 The Porter requires you to fade Gibbs and Almond raw, right? 1174 01:00:15,600 --> 01:00:19,000 Andrews requires you to fade Lamar and Henry Hawkinson 1175 01:00:19,000 --> 01:00:21,360 requires requires you to fade Justin Jefferson. 1176 01:00:22,000 --> 01:00:24,320 And then Kim Cage, you're probably not playing because 1177 01:00:24,320 --> 01:00:26,800 it's Alan. And then you get to like Zach 1178 01:00:26,800 --> 01:00:29,160 Ertz and Dalton Schultz and Pat Fryermuth. 1179 01:00:29,160 --> 01:00:32,040 And that's why I think like the ertz and like firearm youth 1180 01:00:32,040 --> 01:00:36,200 could maybe get. And if you look at, yeah, if you 1181 01:00:36,200 --> 01:00:41,400 look at teammates, like so Laporta projected same points 1182 01:00:41,400 --> 01:00:45,760 per game as Kelsey, but he's projected, you know, two points 1183 01:00:45,760 --> 01:00:51,360 behind Gibbs, three points behind Almanra, whereas Kelsey's 1184 01:00:51,360 --> 01:00:53,320 winning his team by three points. 1185 01:00:53,320 --> 01:00:54,840 Like that's like a net six point. 1186 01:00:55,080 --> 01:00:56,720 It's huge. Swing. 1187 01:00:57,920 --> 01:01:01,640 Laporta like the Shorty and then Chad saying Laporta, Laporta 1188 01:01:01,640 --> 01:01:03,640 higher. I mean, you realize they got to, 1189 01:01:04,160 --> 01:01:06,920 you got to make a decision to not play Gibbs or Aminra St. 1190 01:01:06,920 --> 01:01:09,840 Brown on a team that you think's playing multiple games probably. 1191 01:01:10,120 --> 01:01:12,160 I think you're right on that Earth's ownership, though, 1192 01:01:12,160 --> 01:01:16,000 looking at it like he's kind of tied to Mclaurin and there's 1193 01:01:16,000 --> 01:01:19,080 just nobody. I mean, you, I don't know, I 1194 01:01:19,080 --> 01:01:21,200 don't think the running backs are that much of A disaster to 1195 01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:25,160 play. But yeah, you're, I think you're 1196 01:01:25,160 --> 01:01:27,760 right on the Earth's ownership. You're going to make us play 1197 01:01:27,760 --> 01:01:30,120 some Brian Robinson and I'm going to be OK with that. 1198 01:01:30,680 --> 01:01:31,800 No, I don't know. I don't know. 1199 01:01:32,880 --> 01:01:34,680 That's the conversation we always have those like these 1200 01:01:34,680 --> 01:01:37,120 things look good and then you look look closer and you're 1201 01:01:37,120 --> 01:01:41,000 like, it's just not worth it. No one's going to do it, so who 1202 01:01:41,000 --> 01:01:42,280 cares? No, that doesn't sound. 1203 01:01:42,280 --> 01:01:47,280 Funny, if LaPorte is low it's because like Monty 0 not one and 1204 01:01:47,280 --> 01:01:51,880 Jameson 0 not one. I, I think like, I don't think 1205 01:01:51,880 --> 01:01:54,640 that people are skipping Amanron Gibbs for Laporta. 1206 01:01:55,520 --> 01:01:58,600 I think you're right. Yeah, you just don't need to do 1207 01:01:58,600 --> 01:02:01,360 it. You think Jameson's only 1 1208 01:02:01,360 --> 01:02:02,880 though? That was the one I was just 1209 01:02:02,880 --> 01:02:04,600 going to bring up. I mean, I could see people 1210 01:02:04,600 --> 01:02:08,280 talking themselves into a JMO spike even in a loss kind of 1211 01:02:08,280 --> 01:02:11,640 thing. Gibbs might be a little high. 1212 01:02:13,520 --> 01:02:16,160 It depends like. How do you have several other 1213 01:02:16,160 --> 01:02:17,320 good? Offers We're not going to have 1214 01:02:17,320 --> 01:02:19,920 clean Montgomery news. Yeah. 1215 01:02:19,920 --> 01:02:22,720 So people could really talk themselves into Gibbs, be like, 1216 01:02:22,760 --> 01:02:25,720 oh, Montgomery, you know. Montgomery quotes today were 1217 01:02:25,720 --> 01:02:28,840 like, pretty bullish. The way he was talking about it. 1218 01:02:28,960 --> 01:02:30,600 They're like you trying to pin him down. 1219 01:02:30,600 --> 01:02:32,600 He's like, let's just say I'm excited, you know, and. 1220 01:02:32,720 --> 01:02:34,640 I think, Pat, everything we talked about yesterday, 1221 01:02:35,080 --> 01:02:37,000 everything we talked about yesterday with Gibbs is true. 1222 01:02:37,000 --> 01:02:38,520 Like he's going to get played a ton. 1223 01:02:38,600 --> 01:02:43,120 But yeah, there's strong alternatives that are going to a 1224 01:02:43,120 --> 01:02:46,400 lot like the thing that really consolidated is projected known 1225 01:02:46,400 --> 01:02:48,440 as when there's not really an alternative, right? 1226 01:02:49,920 --> 01:02:51,280 But that's what I think, Jameson. 1227 01:02:51,320 --> 01:02:55,280 Though. Jameson's it's like, I don't 1228 01:02:55,280 --> 01:02:57,240 know, it's like a fancy play. It's a pretty fancy. 1229 01:02:57,920 --> 01:03:01,520 I'll. I'll say that if these 1230 01:03:01,520 --> 01:03:05,320 ownerships are right, we will likely end up with a lot of Aman 1231 01:03:05,320 --> 01:03:07,600 Raw. Yeah, Yeah. 1232 01:03:07,760 --> 01:03:09,000 That's a great. Play he was on my. 1233 01:03:09,080 --> 01:03:11,880 List whether that means you should change the ownerships and 1234 01:03:11,880 --> 01:03:14,720 other people will see it. That's that's that's a fat crane 1235 01:03:14,720 --> 01:03:19,360 skill set, but. I would say if if like Jameson 1236 01:03:19,360 --> 01:03:23,440 is at two or three, then it probably comes from La Porta and 1237 01:03:23,440 --> 01:03:25,640 not from like Gibbs or a Monroe kind. 1238 01:03:25,640 --> 01:03:27,480 Of thing, right? I might. 1239 01:03:27,480 --> 01:03:29,960 Those guys are going to consolidate huge. 1240 01:03:30,240 --> 01:03:32,040 I mean, they're going to be 90 like he has it. 1241 01:03:33,400 --> 01:03:38,400 Yeah, I think, I mean, I could. I don't know, man. 1242 01:03:38,400 --> 01:03:40,600 Like Gibbs just absolutely went nuclear. 1243 01:03:41,320 --> 01:03:44,680 And yeah, that finish to this season is going to have people 1244 01:03:44,680 --> 01:03:48,640 feeling real comfy. Yeah, yeah. 1245 01:03:49,320 --> 01:03:54,280 The question is, how many people care that with Montgomery back, 1246 01:03:54,280 --> 01:03:59,640 his projection for, you know, right or wrong is going to be a 1247 01:03:59,640 --> 01:04:02,880 little more tame. Some of Shorty Shorty's comments 1248 01:04:02,880 --> 01:04:06,200 here in the chat kind of point to why I think this is a fun 1249 01:04:06,200 --> 01:04:08,440 contest. He's saying like, takedown ertz 1250 01:04:08,440 --> 01:04:09,720 Laporta. Laporta should be higher 1251 01:04:09,720 --> 01:04:13,520 takedown ertz like, yeah, no one wants to play Hertz, but they 1252 01:04:13,520 --> 01:04:17,320 have to play a commander. And it's like, and I'm going to 1253 01:04:17,360 --> 01:04:21,680 play Terry on every team then. And LaPorte is a great play, but 1254 01:04:21,680 --> 01:04:25,040 you have to not play Aman Rao, who's also a great play, and 1255 01:04:25,040 --> 01:04:29,800 Gibbs, who's like good chalk. So it's just it's, you know, 1256 01:04:30,240 --> 01:04:31,800 that's the beauty of this contest. 1257 01:04:32,160 --> 01:04:38,520 Hertz is closer to 1 teammate on a team that's favored to lose 1258 01:04:38,520 --> 01:04:43,480 round one, then Laporta is to two teammates on a team that's 1259 01:04:43,520 --> 01:04:46,120 favored to win. I think you're right on Laporta. 1260 01:04:46,440 --> 01:04:49,520 This is this is the thing people really struggle with in the chat 1261 01:04:49,520 --> 01:04:51,040 and stuff. But we talked about at the very 1262 01:04:51,040 --> 01:04:53,320 beginning of the show, the third best option on some of these 1263 01:04:53,320 --> 01:04:56,400 teams winds up being coming in really low, right? 1264 01:04:56,400 --> 01:04:59,280 Like the 6% DK Metcalf example. Actually that wasn't a good one 1265 01:04:59,280 --> 01:05:00,880 because he was like the first option on that year. 1266 01:05:00,880 --> 01:05:04,120 But the same with Jameson, like we you moved up to two, but I 1267 01:05:04,120 --> 01:05:06,280 think you're right to push back on that Pat like I don't think 1268 01:05:06,280 --> 01:05:07,840 he can actually get that high like. 1269 01:05:08,080 --> 01:05:11,720 He has like even be even be charitable with a guy like 1270 01:05:11,720 --> 01:05:15,120 LaPorte to say that his ownership is 5%. 1271 01:05:15,120 --> 01:05:19,040 And let's say, you know, Leone ran some Sims and it said 1272 01:05:19,040 --> 01:05:22,760 efficient was 10% like that. You would have to be playing 10 1273 01:05:22,760 --> 01:05:27,240 lineups to just get to 1 laporta lineup in a smart way like that. 1274 01:05:27,240 --> 01:05:29,080 That's the kind of thing that's happening. 1275 01:05:29,120 --> 01:05:31,840 Like you know what I mean? Like if you want to Yolo it on 1276 01:05:31,840 --> 01:05:34,080 your one or two lineup laporta because you like that, Like 1277 01:05:34,120 --> 01:05:35,920 sure. But I'm just saying those 1278 01:05:35,920 --> 01:05:39,080 situations play out writ large, which is what keeps this down. 1279 01:05:40,120 --> 01:05:42,840 And you have to go farther on Jameson, like the, the chat, 1280 01:05:42,840 --> 01:05:45,640 like Steph was saying, maybe people play Jim over the port. 1281 01:05:46,000 --> 01:05:48,280 I, I think Pat's got it right because I think the reason you 1282 01:05:48,280 --> 01:05:50,920 do get to LaPorte on your 10th team, like Pete was saying, is 1283 01:05:51,000 --> 01:05:54,320 the tight end question, right? Jameson, you got to be like, 1284 01:05:54,640 --> 01:05:57,880 I'm, I'm fading those guys and it's not even really helping. 1285 01:05:58,080 --> 01:05:59,800 It's just like I'm putting him in a flex. 1286 01:06:00,040 --> 01:06:03,480 You know, it's not helping my lineup constraints, my 1287 01:06:03,480 --> 01:06:07,480 positional constraints. That's going to be a hard click. 1288 01:06:07,560 --> 01:06:08,920 Jameson Williams is going to be a really. 1289 01:06:08,920 --> 01:06:10,160 Hard click. He's a really hard click. 1290 01:06:10,560 --> 01:06:13,440 He's the 4th best player on his team in Titan Premium. 1291 01:06:14,000 --> 01:06:16,560 You're running the 4th best play on the one seed. 1292 01:06:16,560 --> 01:06:18,200 It's like. What if I? 1293 01:06:18,280 --> 01:06:20,320 Just to like get into the psychology of it a little more. 1294 01:06:20,320 --> 01:06:24,040 Like it's really easy on every single team to be like, oh man, 1295 01:06:24,040 --> 01:06:28,240 that really stands out. But when you're going to build a 1296 01:06:28,240 --> 01:06:30,600 line up, you're only going to end up pulling hopefully, you 1297 01:06:30,600 --> 01:06:33,920 know, a couple of these levers. And the smartest levers are 1298 01:06:33,920 --> 01:06:38,120 going to be against like bracket or game level stuff that people 1299 01:06:38,120 --> 01:06:40,200 are uncomfortable with to the point where you could get a 1300 01:06:40,320 --> 01:06:43,920 really high usage guy like Joe Mixon, you know, that no one 1301 01:06:43,920 --> 01:06:45,960 wants to touch because of like the game flow. 1302 01:06:46,200 --> 01:06:49,840 Whereas like the opportunity cost of pulling that lever on 1303 01:06:49,840 --> 01:06:53,960 one of the Super Bowl favorites with like three other loaded 1304 01:06:54,040 --> 01:06:57,640 options, like that's a really scary Click to make on one of 1305 01:06:57,640 --> 01:07:00,320 your line UPS. But also to to Leone's point, I 1306 01:07:00,320 --> 01:07:02,960 want to circle back to it because people are so concerned 1307 01:07:02,960 --> 01:07:06,760 about Laporta and Jameson Alman Raw's sitting there at 26 and 1308 01:07:06,760 --> 01:07:08,800 Leone's right. I think if if Pat, if you're 1309 01:07:08,800 --> 01:07:11,960 right about this like he's the flat, right. 1310 01:07:12,080 --> 01:07:15,640 I mean, that's he's a smash. Alman Raw's a smash at that. 1311 01:07:15,680 --> 01:07:18,160 I mean, yeah, that's the guy who jumps out to me as too low as 1312 01:07:18,160 --> 01:07:21,160 Alman Raw, which I mean like maybe means I'm projecting him 1313 01:07:21,160 --> 01:07:24,080 too, too low. But then you got to take it from 1314 01:07:24,080 --> 01:07:27,120 the border. At worst, I'm on on Gibbs like 1315 01:07:27,120 --> 01:07:31,440 should be like a coin flip. Arguably I'm on raw should be 1316 01:07:31,440 --> 01:07:35,720 favored over Gibbs, but you know, that's subjective for 1317 01:07:35,720 --> 01:07:39,000 sure. I do think that'll be closer. 1318 01:07:39,000 --> 01:07:40,920 I don't know. It is. 1319 01:07:41,000 --> 01:07:43,760 I do wonder, man, like how much are people going to put their 1320 01:07:44,600 --> 01:07:46,120 that's in the sand about the Montgomery stuff? 1321 01:07:46,120 --> 01:07:48,480 Because I mean, I mean, to your point, Leonie, like the 1322 01:07:48,480 --> 01:07:51,480 projection differences in games with Montgomery are pretty 1323 01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:54,200 meaningful, especially to the ceiling, right? 1324 01:07:55,920 --> 01:07:57,360 Yeah, it's, it's super meaningful. 1325 01:07:57,360 --> 01:08:01,640 I mean, Gibbs is like the RV 1, you know, without Montgomery and 1326 01:08:01,640 --> 01:08:06,280 then with Montgomery, you know, we talked about in DFS as a GPP 1327 01:08:06,280 --> 01:08:09,840 play every week, you know, like because no one was he, he was 1328 01:08:09,840 --> 01:08:12,480 never that highly owned. It was just hard to ever get him 1329 01:08:12,480 --> 01:08:14,280 highly owned. And he wasn't priced insanely 1330 01:08:14,280 --> 01:08:16,640 high. You know, he was priced somewhat 1331 01:08:16,640 --> 01:08:20,240 expensive, but not crazy. But I think people in people's 1332 01:08:20,240 --> 01:08:23,680 minds, I think they've just like there's you know, they've gone 1333 01:08:23,680 --> 01:08:25,000 to Gibbs, there's no turning back. 1334 01:08:25,319 --> 01:08:29,080 I think we're projecting like Montgomery at 85% what his 1335 01:08:29,840 --> 01:08:32,399 normal role. Oh geez. 1336 01:08:32,600 --> 01:08:35,080 Has been. That's higher than I was even 1337 01:08:35,080 --> 01:08:36,560 doing in my mind because I was thinking. 1338 01:08:39,200 --> 01:08:45,399 Maybe we could be off, but like if you say 75% of his normal 1339 01:08:45,399 --> 01:08:48,920 role, then you're at a point where you're talking probably 1340 01:08:48,920 --> 01:08:52,920 like Gibbs and Aman raw are projected the same if you say 1341 01:08:52,920 --> 01:08:58,000 75% Montgomery. And that also is like. 1342 01:08:58,000 --> 01:09:01,800 That's 359 yes like like almond raw you also. 1343 01:09:01,800 --> 01:09:06,040 Don't need the running back. You have Henry, you have Saquon, 1344 01:09:06,760 --> 01:09:08,600 you have Cook. If you don't play, if you play 1345 01:09:08,600 --> 01:09:11,080 Lamar, you have Cook. So. 1346 01:09:12,960 --> 01:09:16,439 Yeah, I and I could just I can't disagree with this enough. 1347 01:09:16,439 --> 01:09:19,000 Montgomery will be a non factor Gibbs cheerleader that. 1348 01:09:19,960 --> 01:09:23,880 Even if he plays at percent of his normal role, it could come 1349 01:09:23,920 --> 01:09:27,399 in limiting his touchdowns. Gibbs had four TDs in Week 18. 1350 01:09:27,520 --> 01:09:30,200 It could be a situation where Montgomery's stealing TD equity. 1351 01:09:30,200 --> 01:09:33,640 Which would be, we've seen Montgomery play through Q tags, 1352 01:09:33,640 --> 01:09:36,640 come off injuries, and Dan Campbell puts the goddamn ball 1353 01:09:36,640 --> 01:09:38,840 in that guy's belly. He does it at the goal line. 1354 01:09:38,880 --> 01:09:42,080 Like if David Montgomery is active, he is fucking playing. 1355 01:09:42,080 --> 01:09:44,240 Like you are so wrong if you think he's sitting on the 1356 01:09:44,240 --> 01:09:46,240 sideline because Gibbs blew up with him out. 1357 01:09:46,240 --> 01:09:48,040 Gibbs blew up with him last year. 1358 01:09:48,720 --> 01:09:51,640 I love this binking guy. The chat just seem to just show 1359 01:09:51,640 --> 01:09:54,160 up. Yo, Barkley and Henry are Musk 1360 01:09:54,160 --> 01:09:57,160 for me, yeah. I love it. 1361 01:09:57,160 --> 01:09:59,120 I love it. Both of them let's. 1362 01:09:59,240 --> 01:10:01,920 Keep moving, it's been a while on the on the bye week. 1363 01:10:01,920 --> 01:10:04,880 Team I think so I'm I'm I'm starting to break here. 1364 01:10:04,880 --> 01:10:08,680 I'm I'm moving gives down slight, I think. 1365 01:10:08,720 --> 01:10:12,520 Let's see. Like that, That looks fairly. 1366 01:10:12,600 --> 01:10:14,880 I mean, they could. That looks fairly good to me. 1367 01:10:15,160 --> 01:10:18,880 Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think you're covered too on 1368 01:10:18,880 --> 01:10:21,920 being like like you could be wrong 10 points either way, but 1369 01:10:21,920 --> 01:10:24,440 the other way I think there was like only one way you could be. 1370 01:10:24,440 --> 01:10:26,200 There's only one way I'm wrong. Yeah. 1371 01:10:28,360 --> 01:10:31,920 All right, let's go to Should. We finish off the NFC. 1372 01:10:32,640 --> 01:10:33,360 Yeah. What did we do? 1373 01:10:33,360 --> 01:10:35,720 We did the the we need to do Minnesota. 1374 01:10:35,800 --> 01:10:37,520 In the ring, yeah. This one was. 1375 01:10:38,040 --> 01:10:45,640 Voice of the Boomer opto. All right, so it's like sort of 1376 01:10:45,720 --> 01:10:54,880 kind of weird, but Puka's down here at 60%, Chiron at 18, and I 1377 01:10:54,880 --> 01:10:59,560 don't know why it's doing that. And yeah, Jefferson, big chalk 1378 01:10:59,560 --> 01:11:00,880 on. I mean, this one's easy. 1379 01:11:02,920 --> 01:11:09,120 Yes there at least with the Rams like I don't. 1380 01:11:10,800 --> 01:11:12,960 This seems like very solid to me. 1381 01:11:12,960 --> 01:11:18,320 I can't really imagine people getting to any non kyron or puka 1382 01:11:18,320 --> 01:11:20,920 unless I'm I'm just missing something about the boomers 1383 01:11:20,960 --> 01:11:26,480 having nostalgia for Cooper cup. I feel like Kyron's high puka at 1384 01:11:26,480 --> 01:11:28,440 60. I mean he had like 1000 yards in 1385 01:11:28,440 --> 01:11:31,160 like 11 games. He went insane. 1386 01:11:31,880 --> 01:11:34,800 Was that crazy? I do think, you know, I mean, 1387 01:11:34,800 --> 01:11:38,320 Korum got hurt, right? Like it's going to be like 100% 1388 01:11:38,480 --> 01:11:43,440 Kyron, so I get it. But yeah, I feel like if I'm 1389 01:11:43,440 --> 01:11:46,240 hand building, I'm like, I'm just going to play 100% book and 1390 01:11:46,240 --> 01:11:49,080 a cool and just you know, who's here. 1391 01:11:49,760 --> 01:11:52,120 He gets so many targets, he's their whole team. 1392 01:11:52,520 --> 01:11:55,760 And they're like, he's the higher projected guy, so like, 1393 01:11:55,760 --> 01:11:58,440 he's better in multiple games, but then you also would want the 1394 01:11:58,440 --> 01:12:00,440 receiver in a loss. So yeah. 1395 01:12:01,560 --> 01:12:05,880 They're minus one O 5 money line and the Vikings are -115 it's, I 1396 01:12:05,880 --> 01:12:08,720 mean, it's a 1 1/2 point spread, but the money line is basically 1397 01:12:08,720 --> 01:12:11,000 telling you this is. AI don't know if this is and 1398 01:12:11,000 --> 01:12:13,120 again, I don't know if this is just me, what I would do versus 1399 01:12:13,120 --> 01:12:14,840 what the field. 'S gonna do No, I think I mean 1400 01:12:15,200 --> 01:12:18,080 just in the drafts today the puka is really high like he's 1401 01:12:18,160 --> 01:12:20,120 he's coveted in these best bowl draft. 1402 01:12:20,120 --> 01:12:22,800 I mean, he's almost going, he's going like near Jefferson at 1403 01:12:23,520 --> 01:12:27,520 this point, so. And there's no battery. 1404 01:12:27,760 --> 01:12:29,880 Later Jefferson. Right, frankly. 1405 01:12:30,080 --> 01:12:31,280 Yeah. Yeah, agreed. 1406 01:12:33,120 --> 01:12:38,240 And not only is he like a better play has been producing better, 1407 01:12:38,240 --> 01:12:42,120 but the options pulling away from him are not near as strong. 1408 01:12:42,120 --> 01:12:45,160 I think, as you know, I, I find like Addison to be a more 1409 01:12:45,160 --> 01:12:47,640 compelling dart throw than Cooper cop, you know? 1410 01:12:48,840 --> 01:12:52,040 I agree with that. Addison's outscored Jefferson in 1411 01:12:52,040 --> 01:12:55,720 many games. He also has hot who can who can 1412 01:12:55,720 --> 01:12:58,680 wrap up catches. What's that? 1413 01:12:59,080 --> 01:13:01,600 You also have Hawkinson, who can rack up catches in tight end 1414 01:13:01,600 --> 01:13:04,600 premium. Puka's the ultimate comfy click. 1415 01:13:04,600 --> 01:13:07,080 He's the guy that I think we talked about it with Debo in 1416 01:13:07,080 --> 01:13:09,000 previous years. You feel good about his role in 1417 01:13:09,000 --> 01:13:10,800 a loss. You feel good about him being a 1418 01:13:10,800 --> 01:13:15,680 huge part of a Smash game. There's nothing uncomfy about 1419 01:13:15,680 --> 01:13:17,640 Puka. You don't feel any opportunity 1420 01:13:17,640 --> 01:13:23,800 cost? So one question, Pat, in terms 1421 01:13:23,800 --> 01:13:29,520 of like teammate differential, we have Aaron Jones, Jefferson 1422 01:13:29,520 --> 01:13:35,760 Gap, the same as Kyron Puka do. You yeah, you think the Aaron 1423 01:13:35,760 --> 01:13:41,200 Jones stuff with like his his availability last week and then 1424 01:13:41,200 --> 01:13:44,280 like like Ham Akers getting that run. 1425 01:13:45,240 --> 01:13:51,200 I think there's like a fairly significant like, you know, like 1426 01:13:51,200 --> 01:13:54,480 the like a, a mental tear that people have these guys in. 1427 01:13:54,960 --> 01:13:57,440 They might be legitimate too. We might be like over projecting 1428 01:13:57,440 --> 01:14:01,280 him. Like Kyron is like a locked in 1429 01:14:01,280 --> 01:14:04,680 running back one all season. Jones, you can take that 1% for 1430 01:14:04,680 --> 01:14:07,560 Cam Akers and and get Aaron Johnson. 3% pretty. 1431 01:14:07,680 --> 01:14:09,240 Easily. That's true. 1432 01:14:09,800 --> 01:14:12,640 But you're right, Kyron's like, we know he's getting 100% of the 1433 01:14:12,640 --> 01:14:14,760 touches, but there is absolutely no doubt. 1434 01:14:14,760 --> 01:14:18,840 Whatsoever and if I'm coming off Jefferson like or puka, it 1435 01:14:18,840 --> 01:14:22,480 better be to someone who's like getting work, you know? 1436 01:14:23,480 --> 01:14:26,520 Yeah. It might be that Addison's a 1437 01:14:26,520 --> 01:14:28,600 little high for what the market does and that aren't. 1438 01:14:28,960 --> 01:14:31,480 Maybe that like Addison, Hawkinson and Jones should all 1439 01:14:31,480 --> 01:14:32,320 be 5. I don't know. 1440 01:14:32,320 --> 01:14:35,560 I had a lean toward Jones last night too in my my first read 1441 01:14:35,560 --> 01:14:37,240 and then you guys are telling me the hell stuff was scary. 1442 01:14:37,360 --> 01:14:39,600 I had a similar reaction to Leone last night. 1443 01:14:40,000 --> 01:14:41,920 Yeah, I think we might be over projecting him, right. 1444 01:14:41,920 --> 01:14:44,720 I do think he like he catches more passes than Kyron. 1445 01:14:44,720 --> 01:14:48,120 So that's part of the reason we have it closer even with like a 1446 01:14:48,120 --> 01:14:51,840 worse role, I think like hocket. What don't you? 1447 01:14:51,920 --> 01:14:53,960 I mean I kind of would think Hawkinson would be played more 1448 01:14:53,960 --> 01:14:56,480 than Addison just for the Titan premium stuff, but. 1449 01:14:58,160 --> 01:15:03,280 Like just hasn't like Hawk has been felt like more like 1450 01:15:03,280 --> 01:15:07,920 Friarmouth then he has a guy that can spike and and carry the 1451 01:15:07,920 --> 01:15:11,120 day for you I feel like. Yeah, that's going to be an 1452 01:15:11,120 --> 01:15:13,880 interesting one. I mean, my read on Addison is I 1453 01:15:13,920 --> 01:15:16,200 was just about to say it, but like first, first round pick 1454 01:15:16,200 --> 01:15:19,680 year two, guy scored 9 touchdowns, scored 10 touchdowns 1455 01:15:19,680 --> 01:15:22,480 as a freshman. It's like a superstar like 1456 01:15:22,600 --> 01:15:25,720 Jordan Addison's like one of the top 20 best receivers in the NFL 1457 01:15:25,720 --> 01:15:28,040 and we're just like not talking about it. 1458 01:15:29,480 --> 01:15:31,840 He could score. It's like Devonta Smith and A.J. 1459 01:15:31,840 --> 01:15:34,000 Brown, but no one, no one treats him that way. 1460 01:15:34,000 --> 01:15:40,160 So. Yeah, I, I, I love like Addison 1461 01:15:40,160 --> 01:15:45,440 in the loss scenarios for, for Vikings is, you know, just for 1462 01:15:45,440 --> 01:15:48,160 our own stuff. Yeah, I kind of like it too, 1463 01:15:48,160 --> 01:15:50,960 because I think he can, he can. He's got the the air yards he 1464 01:15:50,960 --> 01:15:55,000 can hit for big plays. The one thing when when we went 1465 01:15:55,000 --> 01:15:58,360 to this, my first thought was the fades and Pat, maybe you can 1466 01:15:58,360 --> 01:16:00,400 correct me on it. And maybe this is like pretty 1467 01:16:00,400 --> 01:16:03,240 logical for them. But somebody in the chat pretty 1468 01:16:03,240 --> 01:16:06,320 quickly said that they felt more comfortable playing both sides 1469 01:16:06,320 --> 01:16:10,160 of this than Washington. Tampa, because it has superstars 1470 01:16:10,400 --> 01:16:14,480 and because of the close spread relative to the high over under. 1471 01:16:15,440 --> 01:16:18,440 I kind of feel like people are going to try to jam both sides 1472 01:16:18,440 --> 01:16:21,720 of this even more than that because the commanders are tough 1473 01:16:21,720 --> 01:16:24,000 to play. Maybe people just play the 1474 01:16:24,000 --> 01:16:27,000 commander's kicker and it's like a mistake the field makes, even 1475 01:16:27,000 --> 01:16:28,640 though there is a really high total in that game. 1476 01:16:32,280 --> 01:16:32,720 Yeah. I. 1477 01:16:32,920 --> 01:16:38,960 Mean so that's, that is like a big question because OK, so 1478 01:16:38,960 --> 01:16:43,840 actually I'm looking here the let's see now the the live line 1479 01:16:43,840 --> 01:16:53,160 for Tampa Bay still -3 and it's, it's Vikings -2 1/2. 1480 01:16:54,920 --> 01:16:57,040 No, then it went down to -1 1/2. OK. 1481 01:16:57,040 --> 01:16:59,560 But they're still favored. So the Vikings are favored. 1482 01:16:59,560 --> 01:17:01,480 The commanders are getting three. 1483 01:17:03,440 --> 01:17:08,920 Yeah, people probably just pick the bucks more than I have it, 1484 01:17:12,400 --> 01:17:16,160 and then they just don't fade either side of this game. 1485 01:17:18,400 --> 01:17:22,320 The AFC do do the Steelers Broncos fades are going to be, 1486 01:17:23,200 --> 01:17:26,200 but that that's kind of what I meant with like the the bracket 1487 01:17:26,200 --> 01:17:29,080 being different, I guess like we have three games in the NFC that 1488 01:17:29,080 --> 01:17:34,280 everybody wants to play. Yeah, yeah. 1489 01:17:34,280 --> 01:17:37,200 I need to bring down these two. Huge spreads in the AFC. 1490 01:17:39,080 --> 01:17:40,720 I think the total fades on Broncos. 1491 01:17:40,720 --> 01:17:42,480 I agree with you. And Broncos and Steelers are 1492 01:17:42,480 --> 01:17:44,600 going to be up there with the years when we had the backup 1493 01:17:44,600 --> 01:17:45,880 QBs. I mean, they're going to be 1494 01:17:45,880 --> 01:17:47,240 absurd. I, I have. 1495 01:17:47,440 --> 01:17:50,080 So I brought him up as we've been going, I've opened up some 1496 01:17:50,080 --> 01:17:53,800 fades and I've, I've sent some of them to those guys that the 1497 01:17:54,640 --> 01:17:59,960 the Steelers are 89, Denver's at 85 and now Pittsburgh was 95 1498 01:17:59,960 --> 01:18:03,280 last year, which maybe they're 95 faded again very close to 1499 01:18:03,280 --> 01:18:05,240 that, but. It's so hard to project that. 1500 01:18:05,440 --> 01:18:08,080 What do you have for the Washington and Tampa? 1501 01:18:08,240 --> 01:18:10,400 I had 94 last year as a projection. 1502 01:18:10,640 --> 01:18:13,720 It was nice. Wow, made this guy. 1503 01:18:14,960 --> 01:18:18,800 Look at this guy, Washington and Tampa, what do you have right 1504 01:18:18,800 --> 01:18:22,120 now for them, for fades? So Washington, I only have 29 1505 01:18:22,120 --> 01:18:26,320 faded and that's too low. That's I need to get that up 1506 01:18:26,320 --> 01:18:28,880 into the 30s or even low 40s maybe. 1507 01:18:30,280 --> 01:18:31,400 So, yeah. So that was down. 1508 01:18:31,400 --> 01:18:35,160 That was 21st. I'm telling you, Washington 1509 01:18:35,200 --> 01:18:38,680 kicker man. Double digits. 22 for the 1510 01:18:38,680 --> 01:18:39,960 Vikings. You're not. 1511 01:18:39,960 --> 01:18:42,400 I have 20 for the Rams and 22 for the Vikings. 1512 01:18:42,400 --> 01:18:45,480 But Vikings is probably, Vikings is probably in the teens and 1513 01:18:45,480 --> 01:18:46,680 yeah, Rams is probably in the teens. 1514 01:18:46,680 --> 01:18:49,800 So that's going to unlock like 6 from each. 1515 01:18:49,800 --> 01:18:53,240 So 12 more to the command. Fiona, you just said Washington 1516 01:18:53,240 --> 01:18:55,440 kicker double digits. Yeah. 1517 01:18:56,120 --> 01:18:58,800 Yeah, that's, I think that's right. 1518 01:18:59,840 --> 01:19:01,200 He's going to be the chalk kicker, dude. 1519 01:19:01,200 --> 01:19:02,720 People are going to just play the kicker in that. 1520 01:19:02,720 --> 01:19:05,360 Game. They're the they're what the are 1521 01:19:05,360 --> 01:19:07,400 they the no, they're not the biggest underdog. 1522 01:19:07,400 --> 01:19:10,360 I guess Green Bay's the biggest underdog on the NFC side, but 1523 01:19:10,360 --> 01:19:11,880 they're the second biggest underdog. 1524 01:19:11,880 --> 01:19:16,280 And if they win, they would have to play Detroit most likely. 1525 01:19:16,280 --> 01:19:19,320 And it's a high total, but it's the skill players aren't as 1526 01:19:19,320 --> 01:19:22,760 juicy as LA, Minnesota or Tampa Bay. 1527 01:19:24,840 --> 01:19:26,200 Wait, so who's the chalk kicker you think? 1528 01:19:27,160 --> 01:19:28,600 I don't know if he was like chalk kicker, but I was saying 1529 01:19:28,600 --> 01:19:31,200 double digits on Siebert, Siebert, Siebert. 1530 01:19:32,000 --> 01:19:34,440 Somebody in the chat said he's not even the kicker anymore. 1531 01:19:34,440 --> 01:19:36,000 Or or. Maybe that's the problem? 1532 01:19:36,520 --> 01:19:38,200 A different team, I think it was. 1533 01:19:38,360 --> 01:19:42,400 I think it was Washington. Neil Farley in the chat earlier 1534 01:19:42,400 --> 01:19:43,480 was. Like we don't have to like a 1535 01:19:43,480 --> 01:19:46,920 kicker ownership. That's Google Watch. 1536 01:19:46,960 --> 01:19:50,600 That's a real problem. He's not interested in reserve. 1537 01:19:51,600 --> 01:19:53,360 Yeah. Cyber's way too high. 1538 01:19:54,680 --> 01:19:57,720 So now, not even kidding though I feel like that probably keeps 1539 01:19:57,720 --> 01:20:00,040 the ownership down people. People don't like these these 1540 01:20:00,040 --> 01:20:05,200 quick kicker swaps. So it's, I think Dan, I think 1541 01:20:05,200 --> 01:20:07,800 it's always been kicking for him for like several weeks, several. 1542 01:20:09,080 --> 01:20:11,320 Weeks dude, I you know what the sad part is Takes. 1543 01:20:11,360 --> 01:20:14,840 Games for them. I wanted to avoid this exact 1544 01:20:14,840 --> 01:20:17,640 situation so before I put the kickers in, I googled like 1545 01:20:17,640 --> 01:20:19,880 commander's kicker and like just like double checked all the 1546 01:20:19,880 --> 01:20:23,000 kickers and or first checked them in some cases to be honest. 1547 01:20:23,520 --> 01:20:27,880 And yeah, somehow that slipped. Didn't. 1548 01:20:28,880 --> 01:20:30,080 I didn't. Notice. 1549 01:20:30,120 --> 01:20:34,400 It's week 12. I I Google, I googled news. 1550 01:20:34,400 --> 01:20:38,760 This and the second article is called Jealousy may have cost 1551 01:20:38,760 --> 01:20:42,440 Commanders loss to Cowboys. Did kicker Austin Seibert rush 1552 01:20:42,440 --> 01:20:45,320 back from his injury too soon for the Washington Commanders 1553 01:20:45,320 --> 01:20:47,360 out of fear he was losing his job? 1554 01:20:47,880 --> 01:20:54,200 So I mean, oh, man. All right. 1555 01:20:55,440 --> 01:20:57,120 Anything else here? Can we move on to the next? 1556 01:20:57,600 --> 01:20:59,440 Lancey, we've we've done it. We've done enough. 1557 01:20:59,440 --> 01:21:01,840 Yeah, let's move on with that. Give me. 1558 01:21:01,840 --> 01:21:04,200 One second, I'm, I'm lowering the, I'm doing a little 1559 01:21:04,200 --> 01:21:06,400 adjustment. Yeah, let's go to the AFC. 1560 01:21:06,400 --> 01:21:09,400 Where do you want to go? We give you Broncos, bills. 1561 01:21:09,760 --> 01:21:15,000 Yep. We'll get Leonie's boots on the 1562 01:21:15,000 --> 01:21:15,920 ground. Take here. 1563 01:21:15,920 --> 01:21:19,320 Get inside a Buffalo Bills boomer mindset. 1564 01:21:21,480 --> 01:21:26,080 So I have Allen as the clear shock over Lamar because you 1565 01:21:26,480 --> 01:21:29,440 like, would you rather play Cook or Henry? 1566 01:21:29,440 --> 01:21:31,040 Most people are going to want to play Henry. 1567 01:21:31,320 --> 01:21:33,280 Mark Andrews will be played more than Kincaid. 1568 01:21:33,640 --> 01:21:37,200 So it's just like natural that you'd then go to Allen, who's 1569 01:21:37,200 --> 01:21:40,160 also going to be home against Lamar when they likely play each 1570 01:21:40,160 --> 01:21:44,440 other in Round 2. So I feel pretty good about 1571 01:21:44,440 --> 01:21:46,800 this, but obviously curious for what you guys think there. 1572 01:21:46,800 --> 01:21:51,800 And then Sutton and and a bunch of nothing over on Denver. 1573 01:21:55,480 --> 01:21:57,160 I think that looks pretty good on the bill. 1574 01:21:57,160 --> 01:22:00,400 My initial instinct was that's high on James Cook, but there's 1575 01:22:00,400 --> 01:22:03,200 just literally nobody else to play and I it's hard for Alan to 1576 01:22:03,200 --> 01:22:07,680 get any higher than you have on. So that's probably right. 1577 01:22:07,680 --> 01:22:10,520 I could see maybe people taking more shots on the wide 1578 01:22:10,520 --> 01:22:12,480 receivers, but I don't know if it would get too. 1579 01:22:13,760 --> 01:22:16,640 Thank you. Just a little bit Shakur, I 1580 01:22:16,640 --> 01:22:20,040 think maybe Shakur should be like 4%. 1581 01:22:21,520 --> 01:22:23,720 I know we'd need to get through this, but I got a shout out 1582 01:22:23,720 --> 01:22:26,840 Chris Diaz for the kicker chasing reference ride suck up 1583 01:22:26,840 --> 01:22:31,800 in the exes. Was that ride suck? 1584 01:22:32,960 --> 01:22:38,960 Up, I think it was, yeah. Shakur up we. 1585 01:22:38,960 --> 01:22:40,480 Just did that. We just did that. 1586 01:22:40,840 --> 01:22:42,880 In the new down Kincaid and cook or cook. 1587 01:22:43,480 --> 01:22:45,680 Probably, maybe, maybe a touch of both. 1588 01:22:46,800 --> 01:22:48,840 Yeah, OK. Yeah, I'm, I'm with Leonie. 1589 01:22:48,840 --> 01:22:50,320 I think Shakur is going to get played some. 1590 01:22:51,080 --> 01:22:55,120 How did you really? I mean I know the that Jefferson 1591 01:22:55,120 --> 01:22:57,840 and Addison are sick but I I I feel it feels weird to me to 1592 01:22:57,840 --> 01:23:00,840 have Kincaid higher than Hock. But maybe maybe it's just my 1593 01:23:01,120 --> 01:23:02,960 personal vibes thing. I agree with that too. 1594 01:23:02,960 --> 01:23:05,000 I don't think anyone wants to play Kincaid at all. 1595 01:23:05,360 --> 01:23:06,960 I was on Kincaid. I don't want to play them. 1596 01:23:06,960 --> 01:23:09,960 The people who didn't play that. Is that you're not You're not 1597 01:23:10,080 --> 01:23:13,240 tight end stuff. Liam told us last night he's not 1598 01:23:13,240 --> 01:23:15,680 even playing him because he has to play Allen in all his teams. 1599 01:23:15,680 --> 01:23:17,200 Like the Bills homers aren't even playing him. 1600 01:23:17,200 --> 01:23:18,600 Who the fuck? The Bills homers aren't playing 1601 01:23:18,600 --> 01:23:19,760 him, all right? You're right. 1602 01:23:19,760 --> 01:23:22,200 You're right. You're right. 1603 01:23:22,200 --> 01:23:23,640 Yeah. Yeah, no one. 1604 01:23:23,680 --> 01:23:25,080 No one. Even the people who like it, 1605 01:23:25,080 --> 01:23:26,760 Gabe can't talk themselves into kin, Gabe. 1606 01:23:26,840 --> 01:23:29,280 I mean, we're, we're screwed. I mean honestly it just means 1607 01:23:29,280 --> 01:23:30,760 it's going to cook though I think. 1608 01:23:32,880 --> 01:23:39,520 Yeah, I mean, Cook is so clearly the second play in a big way 1609 01:23:39,520 --> 01:23:42,360 when like we were talking about Aman raw then compared to 1610 01:23:42,440 --> 01:23:46,280 Laporta and Jamo, like James Cook compared to Kincaid and 1611 01:23:46,280 --> 01:23:50,800 Shakur is is an even bigger gap than those kind of 2nd to 1612 01:23:50,800 --> 01:23:56,160 thirds. Yeah, yeah. 1613 01:23:56,160 --> 01:23:59,040 So I mean and then and then fades and Sutton I think is 1614 01:23:59,040 --> 01:24:04,520 basically on the other side. Yeah, yeah, there's. 1615 01:24:04,760 --> 01:24:07,000 I mean. You don't even have Mims on the 1616 01:24:07,000 --> 01:24:08,840 chart. I think that's correct. 1617 01:24:09,440 --> 01:24:12,520 Yeah, I mean, right. I didn't even include them. 1618 01:24:13,600 --> 01:24:15,680 It's disrespectful. But what are you going? 1619 01:24:15,680 --> 01:24:17,560 To play Javonte Williams and. I'm going to Leonie. 1620 01:24:17,560 --> 01:24:19,680 Is there going to be any? I mean, it's it's so cold on the 1621 01:24:19,680 --> 01:24:21,160 East Coast, you think there's going to be people who are not 1622 01:24:21,160 --> 01:24:25,920 going to want to play kickers with a low team total as massive 1623 01:24:25,920 --> 01:24:33,760 dogs out in the Buffalo weather. Yeah, I, I, I think we've seen 1624 01:24:33,760 --> 01:24:37,480 in the past, right, that sometimes the field does not 1625 01:24:37,480 --> 01:24:39,640 spread out, the soft fades that much. 1626 01:24:39,640 --> 01:24:41,960 That's right. Like we've seen some really 1627 01:24:42,480 --> 01:24:45,560 heavy stances. We mentioned I. 1628 01:24:45,600 --> 01:24:48,880 Have not been getting. A year like Miami, DST and their 1629 01:24:48,880 --> 01:24:53,120 kicker were like a combined like 3% maybe. 1630 01:24:53,520 --> 01:24:56,600 I would bet the house on what Leonie's saying. 1631 01:24:56,600 --> 01:25:00,760 The under 20% kicker and D for Denver, their hard fate is going 1632 01:25:00,760 --> 01:25:04,480 to be higher than 65. OK people. 1633 01:25:04,480 --> 01:25:07,400 Because people still want to believe that their kicker and D 1634 01:25:07,720 --> 01:25:10,480 can be optimal in two games. They're they're just going to 1635 01:25:10,480 --> 01:25:13,640 say the Broncos can't win. I'm not putting a single Bronco 1636 01:25:13,640 --> 01:25:14,880 in my team. It's not. 1637 01:25:15,520 --> 01:25:18,600 Even too high as well, potentially. 1638 01:25:20,480 --> 01:25:22,720 But especially the Broncos. Dude, no one believes in Bonex. 1639 01:25:22,720 --> 01:25:24,080 No one's believed in this team all year. 1640 01:25:24,080 --> 01:25:26,280 I've made a killing and stealing lines betting on them all year 1641 01:25:26,280 --> 01:25:28,520 because like, no one wants to fucking play this team. 1642 01:25:28,520 --> 01:25:35,520 They think the Broncos suck. Yeah, yeah. 1643 01:25:35,720 --> 01:25:39,080 And honestly, the fade might also just be higher period on 1644 01:25:39,080 --> 01:25:41,400 this team. Yep. 1645 01:25:42,720 --> 01:25:44,320 That's one thing. That's that's where people 1646 01:25:44,320 --> 01:25:46,720 probably just play more Vikings, Vikings. 1647 01:25:49,320 --> 01:25:51,680 I, I think Denver DST is going to be a pretty good play. 1648 01:25:51,720 --> 01:25:56,000 Like even in a loss, we know that they could put up a score 1649 01:25:57,640 --> 01:26:01,560 that's the highest of the, you know, the soft fades, Yeah. 1650 01:26:01,680 --> 01:26:08,880 And the fades all. Right, where to next, LA? 1651 01:26:10,400 --> 01:26:18,200 Yeah, Chargers and Texans here. This one's more fun because I 1652 01:26:18,240 --> 01:26:21,080 think there's lots of different ways this can go all. 1653 01:26:23,880 --> 01:26:28,720 Right. So this is one of those things I 1654 01:26:28,720 --> 01:26:32,080 feel like you'll probably want to fade this a little bit more, 1655 01:26:32,080 --> 01:26:35,480 but it's like you you kind of run out of teams to fade. 1656 01:26:37,600 --> 01:26:41,280 So it creates a situation where Mcconkey, I think will be pretty 1657 01:26:41,280 --> 01:26:45,360 big chalk and he is going like in the playoff basketball stuff. 1658 01:26:45,360 --> 01:26:48,040 He's he's moving up. Yeah. 1659 01:26:49,480 --> 01:26:53,840 So that that made me feel like. And then I I may have Nico too. 1660 01:26:53,880 --> 01:26:57,400 I may have this gap too close. I think Nico's probably higher 1661 01:26:57,400 --> 01:26:59,200 than Mixon by more than this margin. 1662 01:27:01,000 --> 01:27:02,560 The Chargers are kind of like Rams. 1663 01:27:02,560 --> 01:27:06,160 Light and Lad is puka and and Dobbins is Kyron. 1664 01:27:06,720 --> 01:27:09,760 I feel like people are going to view Mixon similar to Jacobs, 1665 01:27:10,160 --> 01:27:13,320 and you had Jacobs pretty high. It's just that Nico, but. 1666 01:27:13,400 --> 01:27:15,720 There's no Nico on the on the Packers. 1667 01:27:15,960 --> 01:27:19,680 Yeah, I again, the Houston vibes too are just so bad. 1668 01:27:22,040 --> 01:27:24,440 Maybe that's just Levitan in my ear each week. 1669 01:27:24,800 --> 01:27:26,920 No, you're right, I think. No, they are bad. 1670 01:27:26,960 --> 01:27:29,640 The vibes are bad on Houston. That's another one where like I 1671 01:27:29,640 --> 01:27:31,280 was in on this and I don't want to play them. 1672 01:27:33,080 --> 01:27:34,720 I think that's a meaningful thing. 1673 01:27:34,720 --> 01:27:35,880 Like it's So what happened to Kyle Pitts? 1674 01:27:35,880 --> 01:27:38,400 The people who were out were like, I don't want any action on 1675 01:27:38,400 --> 01:27:40,240 him and the people that were in were like, I don't want any 1676 01:27:40,240 --> 01:27:42,360 action on him. And then no one fucking wants to 1677 01:27:42,360 --> 01:27:44,320 draft him the next year, right? Or, or play him. 1678 01:27:45,320 --> 01:27:49,560 Do you think Schultz gets off 0 at all or no? 1679 01:27:51,840 --> 01:27:56,280 I mean maybe the one but like. I don't think he's like the 1680 01:27:56,560 --> 01:28:00,080 craziest play, but. I don't know. 1681 01:28:00,080 --> 01:28:03,880 We've seen him do it before in a loss, although his role has been 1682 01:28:03,880 --> 01:28:06,120 way less than it has been in years past too. 1683 01:28:06,440 --> 01:28:07,800 Right. Yeah, it's not as good. 1684 01:28:07,960 --> 01:28:10,280 It's I want to go higher than one. 1685 01:28:10,280 --> 01:28:12,000 I just think I might put it at 1:00. 1686 01:28:12,800 --> 01:28:15,560 Yeah, it's a good point because there's no other receivers. 1687 01:28:15,560 --> 01:28:18,240 They've all gotten hurt but I just feel like Nico or mixing 1688 01:28:18,240 --> 01:28:22,720 our fade. I like Pat how you kind of have 1689 01:28:22,720 --> 01:28:25,960 this spread out because I do really think it's going to be a 1690 01:28:25,960 --> 01:28:31,360 kind of choose your own adventure across the way this 1691 01:28:31,360 --> 01:28:35,200 like almost what you know, 20% split across five guys, 1692 01:28:35,640 --> 01:28:38,200 including the, the fade and the the soft fades. 1693 01:28:38,400 --> 01:28:40,800 Yeah, and the soft fades probably getting played higher 1694 01:28:40,800 --> 01:28:43,760 here than in Pittsburgh and in Denver, well. 1695 01:28:44,200 --> 01:28:47,840 You identified this as the soft fade bowl where people fade both 1696 01:28:47,840 --> 01:28:51,080 sides of this game. Yep, with soft fades and I think 1697 01:28:51,080 --> 01:28:53,120 that there we will see some of that. 1698 01:28:55,600 --> 01:28:58,080 Yeah, especially, especially I just think people aren't going 1699 01:28:58,080 --> 01:28:59,440 to play Houston. I'm probably going to. 1700 01:28:59,520 --> 01:29:02,480 That's one of the things I'm going to try and do is get the 1701 01:29:02,520 --> 01:29:07,840 the Rams fade down, the Vikings fade down and the Commanders and 1702 01:29:07,920 --> 01:29:11,120 and Texans fades up a bit. Honestly I feel like the 1703 01:29:11,120 --> 01:29:13,520 commanders will get faded significantly less than the 1704 01:29:13,520 --> 01:29:16,240 Texans where it's like it's way more fun to play both sides of 1705 01:29:16,240 --> 01:29:18,760 that game. It's just harder to pick a 1706 01:29:18,760 --> 01:29:22,040 player on the commanders. I think people want to play the 1707 01:29:22,080 --> 01:29:24,720 Chargers to win. They do. 1708 01:29:25,080 --> 01:29:28,160 People want to put there, there's going to be edge in, you 1709 01:29:28,160 --> 01:29:31,280 know, just closing your eyes and playing some, some Nico and some 1710 01:29:31,280 --> 01:29:34,960 mix in for sure because they play two games. 1711 01:29:35,400 --> 01:29:37,480 Chiefs. That's why I I told told you 1712 01:29:37,480 --> 01:29:40,280 guys before the show that I had to spend 2 to 3 minutes tilting 1713 01:29:40,280 --> 01:29:43,840 that last year we were overweight Houston skill players 1714 01:29:43,920 --> 01:29:47,400 and their DST and kicker were the best plays in two games. 1715 01:29:48,520 --> 01:29:53,040 I'm going to say it this year they're going to win and Nico or 1716 01:29:53,040 --> 01:29:55,840 Mixon will be it. Won't be their DST or kicker 1717 01:29:55,840 --> 01:29:58,720 this time, yeah. Not going to fade in two games 1718 01:29:58,720 --> 01:30:02,600 this time. This this game two years ago 1719 01:30:02,600 --> 01:30:05,160 when the Chargers were in the playoffs, and this was probably 1720 01:30:05,160 --> 01:30:10,560 instructive, the Chargers were, you know, I think slight 1721 01:30:10,560 --> 01:30:13,320 favorites in that game. I projected 18% of the field to 1722 01:30:13,320 --> 01:30:17,480 fade the Chargers in 19% of the field to fade the Jaguars who 1723 01:30:17,480 --> 01:30:22,600 they're playing. 6% of the field faded the Chargers and 39% of 1724 01:30:22,600 --> 01:30:25,920 the field played the Jaguars. And this feels kind of similar 1725 01:30:25,920 --> 01:30:28,360 where I think people are just gonna be like, Chargers win, 1726 01:30:28,520 --> 01:30:33,320 Chargers win, Texans lose. And that and probably 1727 01:30:33,320 --> 01:30:36,680 overconfidently, right? Yes, Steph's asking about 1728 01:30:36,680 --> 01:30:38,880 Dobbins feeling high. He's the one that I've had a 1729 01:30:38,880 --> 01:30:41,560 really hard time with when I didn't I I try to do a little 1730 01:30:41,560 --> 01:30:43,240 run to the boomer opto I mentioned yesterday. 1731 01:30:43,240 --> 01:30:46,280 I actually threw Dobbins in at first, I was thinking people 1732 01:30:46,280 --> 01:30:47,800 might think the charters might have a little run. 1733 01:30:47,800 --> 01:30:53,280 He's clearly their lead back. And yet I kind of feel like I 1734 01:30:53,440 --> 01:30:56,520 understand what she's saying. You guys have made a totally 1735 01:30:56,520 --> 01:30:59,040 great case that it's going to be, I don't think he's going to 1736 01:30:59,040 --> 01:31:01,120 be their chalk piece anymore or anything. 1737 01:31:01,760 --> 01:31:04,360 It's going to be Mcconkey. But I mean, are people going to 1738 01:31:04,360 --> 01:31:08,600 tell themselves that the running back is good in multiple games 1739 01:31:08,600 --> 01:31:11,800 or and Harbaugh, you know, this is the way they'll win in the 1740 01:31:11,800 --> 01:31:14,880 playoffs kind of a way? Or is it just too high? 1741 01:31:15,120 --> 01:31:16,840 I could. I could see Dobbins coming up a 1742 01:31:16,840 --> 01:31:20,000 little bit. I I like the Dobbins percentage. 1743 01:31:21,480 --> 01:31:22,960 Well, I brought him down like so. 1744 01:31:22,960 --> 01:31:25,920 I had it at 10 and 55. I liked it at 10 but OK. 1745 01:31:28,560 --> 01:31:29,600 I didn't seem. Right. 1746 01:31:29,720 --> 01:31:31,680 I, I this is the I wouldn't have, I wouldn't have brought 1747 01:31:31,680 --> 01:31:35,400 Dobbins years ago. Cam Acres was 10% that year. 1748 01:31:35,400 --> 01:31:37,520 I want to say like this is the Acres play. 1749 01:31:37,520 --> 01:31:38,920 He's the Dobbins. Might be the acres. 1750 01:31:40,280 --> 01:31:44,680 Play Wow. Yeah, I think Jacobs might be 1751 01:31:44,680 --> 01:31:48,080 the Acres play. But Jacobs is 50% owned, yeah. 1752 01:31:48,400 --> 01:31:52,880 Well, yeah, he's not the play. Is he because I think the acres 1753 01:31:52,880 --> 01:31:54,280 my initial. You're the one making the 1754 01:31:54,280 --> 01:31:55,400 ownership projections. You. 1755 01:31:57,120 --> 01:31:59,120 Tell us. You said this back, Ray got his 1756 01:31:59,240 --> 01:32:03,640 own. But but when I with the Acres 1757 01:32:03,640 --> 01:32:06,160 thing, I remember lowering him and lowering him in the 1758 01:32:06,200 --> 01:32:08,040 ownership. I'm like, people can play Acres, 1759 01:32:08,520 --> 01:32:10,280 people can play acres and then lowering him and lowering him 1760 01:32:10,280 --> 01:32:12,320 and be like, we got to change this guy. 1761 01:32:12,720 --> 01:32:15,360 That's true because I think we even projected acres at like 1762 01:32:15,360 --> 01:32:17,680 25%. Yeah, yeah. 1763 01:32:17,680 --> 01:32:19,240 And we were like this is a smash. 1764 01:32:19,480 --> 01:32:22,760 And had we projected him at 10%, we would have and he. 1765 01:32:22,840 --> 01:32:23,920 Wasn't cup that's. Right. 1766 01:32:24,360 --> 01:32:27,440 Shoved if we. But there was cup on that team, 1767 01:32:27,440 --> 01:32:28,640 right? That was. 1768 01:32:28,640 --> 01:32:31,200 Popular people were injured. I don't think cup was on the. 1769 01:32:31,360 --> 01:32:34,400 Team was there anyone I'm. Pulling it up. 1770 01:32:35,640 --> 01:32:37,880 I think there were some shitty wide receivers. 1771 01:32:38,480 --> 01:32:41,240 OK. I think he was on the pre the 1772 01:32:41,320 --> 01:32:43,480 IT. Was like all the spades. 1773 01:32:44,240 --> 01:32:46,800 OK. There were some crappy receivers 1774 01:32:46,800 --> 01:32:50,520 I remember playing. Maybe Robert Woods was on the 1775 01:32:50,520 --> 01:32:52,960 team, I don't know. I think it was pre the cup 1776 01:32:52,960 --> 01:32:54,920 breakout. Yeah. 1777 01:32:55,720 --> 01:32:58,840 So, yeah, OK, here it is. So I had acres projected for 1778 01:32:58,840 --> 01:33:04,120 39%, came in at 11 percent. What? 1779 01:33:04,200 --> 01:33:05,960 You did a terrible job, Pat, what are you doing? 1780 01:33:06,560 --> 01:33:10,360 Yeah, I'm sorry. We liked one at 39% was like the 1781 01:33:10,360 --> 01:33:12,240 crazy thing. So maybe you're right. 1782 01:33:12,240 --> 01:33:14,520 Maybe the maybe the Acres play is Jacobs. 1783 01:33:15,080 --> 01:33:18,560 Yeah, I mean, it's like chalk that doesn't materialize on like 1784 01:33:18,560 --> 01:33:22,040 a on a live dog that runs their offense through running back. 1785 01:33:22,040 --> 01:33:24,920 Like to me, it's the Jacobs. And people just end up fading 1786 01:33:24,920 --> 01:33:26,560 them. This is when Jacobs was like, 1787 01:33:26,560 --> 01:33:29,400 really good too. I mean this is. 1788 01:33:29,400 --> 01:33:31,800 Real weird. Maybe Bucky Irving looked good. 1789 01:33:32,600 --> 01:33:33,960 But the. Irving to Jacob's play. 1790 01:33:34,360 --> 01:33:36,560 Here's the acres. No, Buck, no, not even close. 1791 01:33:36,560 --> 01:33:37,800 It's. Not it's, it's not. 1792 01:33:38,240 --> 01:33:43,520 No, not on. 11 The acres guys. Bucky might come in at 3. 1793 01:33:43,520 --> 01:33:45,200 We better play them in every single level. 1794 01:33:46,880 --> 01:33:49,200 The This is called insider trading. 1795 01:33:49,600 --> 01:33:52,320 I, I sent you guys this stuff ahead of time, but it's kind of 1796 01:33:52,320 --> 01:33:58,880 the Bucks had the highest NFC team total in round one and the 1797 01:33:58,880 --> 01:34:01,440 matchups that they could potentially play the rest of the 1798 01:34:01,440 --> 01:34:04,840 way, like all are probably going to have decent totals. 1799 01:34:04,840 --> 01:34:09,720 The AFC is where you could get some potentially gross total 1800 01:34:09,720 --> 01:34:13,200 games. There's like very likely to very 1801 01:34:13,200 --> 01:34:17,920 unlikely to be any Dome games after Houston Lac in round one. 1802 01:34:18,360 --> 01:34:21,040 It's outdoor cold stuff in the NFC. 1803 01:34:21,040 --> 01:34:24,520 You've got Minnesota Dome, you've got Rams Dome, you've got 1804 01:34:24,520 --> 01:34:26,520 Detroit Dome. Obviously it's the one seed 1805 01:34:26,520 --> 01:34:29,920 you've got Tampa Bay and not, you know, the Northeast. 1806 01:34:30,000 --> 01:34:34,560 So yeah, the scoring environments are just good in 1807 01:34:34,560 --> 01:34:37,840 the better in the NFC. For sure. 1808 01:34:38,120 --> 01:34:41,000 Yeah, the chats not liking 55% Mcconkey. 1809 01:34:41,000 --> 01:34:43,320 There's several in a row. Tell me where to put a chat. 1810 01:34:43,880 --> 01:34:45,680 No, no, no, no. They're, they're saying they 1811 01:34:45,680 --> 01:34:47,200 don't want to play it again. I I think. 1812 01:34:47,280 --> 01:34:48,720 It's a really good. Reaction. 1813 01:34:48,720 --> 01:34:51,480 Yeah, you can, you can say that that's too high and I think I 1814 01:34:51,480 --> 01:34:53,960 agree. I think Dobbins should be come 1815 01:34:53,960 --> 01:34:55,440 up and some other ways to play it. 1816 01:34:55,440 --> 01:34:57,880 But I I think the field's going to feel very comfortable with 1817 01:34:57,880 --> 01:35:00,960 LAD. I would say maybe more soft 1818 01:35:00,960 --> 01:35:04,080 fade, but you already have it at 25% soft fade, so. 1819 01:35:04,080 --> 01:35:05,440 That's good. I think I'm going to take it 1820 01:35:05,440 --> 01:35:08,560 down because I think that people play the Chargers to win this 1821 01:35:08,560 --> 01:35:11,480 game. I don't think you I I think 1822 01:35:11,480 --> 01:35:13,360 Pete's points right there. That's what they're saying. 1823 01:35:13,360 --> 01:35:16,600 But I I was saying the sentiment is that's too high. 1824 01:35:16,600 --> 01:35:18,200 Makes me think it's maybe a nudge too high. 1825 01:35:18,200 --> 01:35:20,240 I don't think you can push that much more on Mcconk. 1826 01:35:20,280 --> 01:35:21,040 I mean, I don't know. I. 1827 01:35:21,120 --> 01:35:23,760 Guess it's push more to Dobbins I think, but maybe I don't want. 1828 01:35:23,760 --> 01:35:28,000 To Dobbins, he could be at 14 or something and. 55 is a lot, man. 1829 01:35:28,080 --> 01:35:31,360 You would like Jefferson at 60, you know, like that's. 1830 01:35:32,000 --> 01:35:34,160 Yeah, I wouldn't go higher on Mcconkey. 1831 01:35:34,680 --> 01:35:38,000 I I don't plan to go higher, but I do think probably people play 1832 01:35:39,480 --> 01:35:42,040 the Chargers to win this game more than I currently have it. 1833 01:35:42,960 --> 01:35:45,880 Well the other thing is 2 I think. 1834 01:35:46,200 --> 01:35:50,560 His mixing the Acres play. Yeah, the Acres play. 1835 01:35:50,840 --> 01:35:52,720 Dude, Mixon kind of is the Acres play. 1836 01:35:52,920 --> 01:35:55,760 He's totally the Acres play. No, no. 1837 01:35:57,560 --> 01:36:00,600 For he's way more than that. But I was going to say the other 1838 01:36:00,600 --> 01:36:05,200 reason on Mcconkey is because people again, kind of feel like 1839 01:36:05,200 --> 01:36:07,560 they can middle it where it's like, oh, if the Chargers go on 1840 01:36:07,560 --> 01:36:09,200 the road to the Chiefs and they're behind and they're 1841 01:36:09,200 --> 01:36:11,760 having to trail a lot, maybe Dobbins gets scripted out. 1842 01:36:11,760 --> 01:36:15,160 But like lads going to be a focal point of basically any 1843 01:36:15,160 --> 01:36:18,600 game script for the Chargers. And I think that gives it a a 1844 01:36:18,600 --> 01:36:20,920 coziness that keeps him pretty high. 1845 01:36:23,920 --> 01:36:27,440 Yeah, I think I the thing about LAD is that like, I think a lot 1846 01:36:27,440 --> 01:36:31,320 of people are just going to be like, well, LAD fits and they're 1847 01:36:31,320 --> 01:36:33,200 not. The ownership doesn't show up 1848 01:36:33,200 --> 01:36:36,280 next to the guy. You know you you can lie to 1849 01:36:36,280 --> 01:36:38,680 yourself when you build this. They won't be that joggy. 1850 01:36:39,240 --> 01:36:43,680 What percent of the field is even considering ownership, 1851 01:36:44,000 --> 01:36:45,760 right? Maybe not considering, but like 1852 01:36:45,760 --> 01:36:49,320 considering past like a very surface level. 1853 01:36:49,800 --> 01:36:52,640 Or doing it correctly because like, a lot of, like, Pat was 1854 01:36:52,640 --> 01:36:54,920 just saying they're like, yeah, no one's going to play Vlad 1855 01:36:54,920 --> 01:36:56,200 Mcconkey. And then everyone plays Vlad 1856 01:36:56,200 --> 01:36:58,360 Mcconkey, right? Yeah. 1857 01:37:00,320 --> 01:37:02,040 I mean, we're gonna play some Lad Mcconkey, guys. 1858 01:37:03,360 --> 01:37:05,000 Obviously, yeah. Yeah. 1859 01:37:05,520 --> 01:37:09,880 So yeah, and I don't think if anything, I know there's a 1860 01:37:09,880 --> 01:37:15,200 little bit of enthusiasm for QJ coming off of another big game. 1861 01:37:15,280 --> 01:37:17,840 Obviously Gus is a zero. They just and they just signed 1862 01:37:17,840 --> 01:37:22,720 Zeke. QJ 13 catches, 186 yards. 1863 01:37:22,720 --> 01:37:25,240 You guys think people actually dot themselves into that a 1864 01:37:25,240 --> 01:37:28,720 little bit? I think 18 surprised the fuck 1865 01:37:28,720 --> 01:37:30,800 out of me. I mean there was multiple DJ. 1866 01:37:31,200 --> 01:37:34,320 Comments in here. Yeah, three percent, 4%. 1867 01:37:34,320 --> 01:37:37,720 That's higher than we have like you know, Jameson Williams and 1868 01:37:37,720 --> 01:37:42,040 some other secondary receivers. So that that seems well, seems 1869 01:37:42,040 --> 01:37:44,520 about right. I don't think we could get too 1870 01:37:44,520 --> 01:37:47,400 much higher than that. No, Gibbs, I mean, Gibbs versus 1871 01:37:47,400 --> 01:37:50,880 Dobbins, Amanora versus Mcconkey, Yeah, just that. 1872 01:37:51,360 --> 01:37:54,120 True. The Porter versus Dizzly, like 1873 01:37:54,800 --> 01:37:57,200 QJ might just be a product of like, I want to play somebody on 1874 01:37:57,200 --> 01:37:58,480 the Chargers and he could score touchdowns. 1875 01:38:00,520 --> 01:38:02,760 Yeah, I think people probably go to Dobbins more. 1876 01:38:04,120 --> 01:38:06,960 It's like easier to imagine him just like scoring touchdowns and 1877 01:38:06,960 --> 01:38:09,160 stuff. That was my initial boomer 1878 01:38:09,160 --> 01:38:11,680 chalky take. Yeah. 1879 01:38:12,520 --> 01:38:13,880 Yep. All right. 1880 01:38:14,080 --> 01:38:16,840 What else do we got? I think that's it. 1881 01:38:17,040 --> 01:38:18,520 We did did it. Oh wow. 1882 01:38:19,200 --> 01:38:21,760 You could show the tops of like a couple possessions maybe. 1883 01:38:21,800 --> 01:38:24,280 Yeah, maybe you could just include everything by and and. 1884 01:38:24,280 --> 01:38:27,200 Sort yeah, so let's here's here's where the fades are. 1885 01:38:27,200 --> 01:38:31,000 Now this is short a couple percentage points as I re dole 1886 01:38:31,000 --> 01:38:32,960 out some stuff. But you see, I got Tampa Bay way 1887 01:38:32,960 --> 01:38:36,320 low, Kansas City higher, you know the one seed. 1888 01:38:36,320 --> 01:38:39,480 But it's like, well, maybe they lose around too and I don't want 1889 01:38:39,480 --> 01:38:40,960 to pick it. I don't want to pick Kelsey on 1890 01:38:40,960 --> 01:38:44,960 this team. I'm going to bring Minnesota 1891 01:38:44,960 --> 01:38:46,480 down. I'm going to bring the Rams 1892 01:38:46,480 --> 01:38:48,440 down. Some that'll go to Washington, 1893 01:38:48,440 --> 01:38:53,160 some will go to Green Bay. But yeah, this is where things 1894 01:38:53,160 --> 01:38:58,120 currently stand. And then let me sort. 1895 01:38:59,720 --> 01:39:02,280 You. What do you guys think? 1896 01:39:02,280 --> 01:39:03,840 Sutton's higher own than Pickens. 1897 01:39:05,920 --> 01:39:11,360 I think it's more about like what team people fade and then I 1898 01:39:11,360 --> 01:39:15,040 think like Fry with maybe catches one or two and there's 1899 01:39:15,040 --> 01:39:17,560 no one else on Denver. So I think, yeah. 1900 01:39:17,600 --> 01:39:19,520 Shouldn't Denver be higher total fate than Pitt? 1901 01:39:19,560 --> 01:39:20,960 That's what you're saying, right, Mike? 1902 01:39:22,640 --> 01:39:25,480 I was just curious, I guess we do have, we have sudden 1903 01:39:25,480 --> 01:39:28,120 projected higher than picking. So like, if people are thinking 1904 01:39:28,120 --> 01:39:30,960 on line the same lines what we have, maybe it's right then, 1905 01:39:30,960 --> 01:39:33,400 yeah. I think with the Denver. 1906 01:39:33,440 --> 01:39:37,520 Higher, yeah, you might be. I mean, I did it based on the 1907 01:39:37,520 --> 01:39:39,240 line, which, you know, it's like a point. 1908 01:39:39,240 --> 01:39:43,600 It's different. Ravens are 9 1/2, Bills are 8 1909 01:39:43,600 --> 01:39:44,200 1/2. But. 1910 01:39:45,440 --> 01:39:48,040 And the finishing form for Sutton and Pickens just couldn't 1911 01:39:48,360 --> 01:39:50,240 be any further apart to how people. 1912 01:39:50,440 --> 01:39:51,160 Feel about. Those. 1913 01:39:51,920 --> 01:39:55,720 Yeah, good point. What do you have as the top like 1914 01:39:55,760 --> 01:39:57,760 other like show the top of the tight? 1915 01:39:57,760 --> 01:39:59,160 End. Yeah, I need to scroll over 1916 01:40:00,160 --> 01:40:03,080 tight end, OK. That's the main one. 1917 01:40:03,080 --> 01:40:07,080 I'm I'm really curious about Kelsey. 1918 01:40:07,080 --> 01:40:09,480 And then we have Yeah, it's Kelsey. 1919 01:40:09,840 --> 01:40:15,680 What's the total here? The total is 122%, which is like 1920 01:40:15,680 --> 01:40:19,880 3% higher than last year, so basically the same as last. 1921 01:40:19,880 --> 01:40:22,280 Year, but meaningfully lower than the previous years. 1922 01:40:22,320 --> 01:40:24,760 We're all. Yeah, previously was 155 in 1923 01:40:24,760 --> 01:40:29,760 twenty, 22185 in 2021 and then 152 in 2020. 1924 01:40:31,320 --> 01:40:33,960 Makes sense. I think that's good, yeah. 1925 01:40:34,000 --> 01:40:37,120 How do you have QB? Man, look how weak this tight 1926 01:40:37,160 --> 01:40:39,400 end. This is the weakest tight end 1927 01:40:39,400 --> 01:40:41,840 we've I think I've. Ever had, Never had. 1928 01:40:41,840 --> 01:40:43,840 Yeah, it's honestly probably still a little too high. 1929 01:40:43,840 --> 01:40:45,240 I'm going to go steal percentages. 1930 01:40:45,240 --> 01:40:48,080 From people, I think I was thinking maybe more like 115 on 1931 01:40:48,080 --> 01:40:50,520 the. Yeah, I think you're right. 1932 01:40:51,040 --> 01:40:52,920 I just like need to figure out who it comes from. 1933 01:40:53,200 --> 01:40:55,920 Yeah, because individually they all look pretty good. 1934 01:40:56,520 --> 01:41:02,720 Right. 122 way too high one O 5% like you just read that three of 1935 01:41:02,720 --> 01:41:06,320 the four last year's have been over 150 like there's 4 flexes 1936 01:41:06,320 --> 01:41:11,440 in this contest yeah, we're talking 115 as really low like 1937 01:41:11,880 --> 01:41:14,000 that's like the people push it people. 1938 01:41:14,040 --> 01:41:16,280 You know, when I when we went through people are like, oh, 1939 01:41:16,280 --> 01:41:20,720 little fryer move fryer with two, you know, like you asked 1940 01:41:20,720 --> 01:41:23,760 about Chelsea, like. It's what it comes down to, the 1941 01:41:23,760 --> 01:41:29,440 Kelsey stuff, I think kind of like if Kelsey 72, it's probably 1942 01:41:29,440 --> 01:41:32,680 what you have is probably right. But I'll take the Disley one 1943 01:41:32,680 --> 01:41:34,200 away and stuff. Yeah. 1944 01:41:34,200 --> 01:41:36,200 Yeah. No one's playing Kincaid. 1945 01:41:36,200 --> 01:41:37,920 Yeah, well, Kincaid's at 2, I mean. 1946 01:41:38,360 --> 01:41:39,360 Yeah, you got him. Right. 1947 01:41:39,360 --> 01:41:41,800 No Kincaid. You got to keep Kincaid at. 1948 01:41:41,800 --> 01:41:45,760 Two yeah, Brett, you've got, I missed this in the chat. 1949 01:41:45,760 --> 01:41:49,800 How is Kincaid not higher, Brett? 1950 01:41:50,960 --> 01:41:53,800 I tried to help Brett earlier. He came in like halfway and 1951 01:41:53,800 --> 01:41:58,320 doesn't understand the contest. I honestly watch the show 1952 01:41:58,320 --> 01:41:59,800 yesterday, watch from the top of the show. 1953 01:41:59,800 --> 01:42:02,000 We talked about a lot of these dynamics and we did some 1954 01:42:02,000 --> 01:42:06,120 examples too, of like why it's really hard to get to higher 1955 01:42:06,120 --> 01:42:08,320 ownership projections on some of these Fringe guys. 1956 01:42:08,360 --> 01:42:11,640 It'll make sense, I promise. Yeah, you look at them in a 1957 01:42:11,640 --> 01:42:13,960 vacuum and they all seem way too low. 1958 01:42:13,960 --> 01:42:16,200 And then you start doing the exercise that Pat's doing, and 1959 01:42:16,200 --> 01:42:18,800 it's like, oh. That's why this is the whole 1960 01:42:18,800 --> 01:42:21,080 show we do once, you know, during the week. 1961 01:42:21,080 --> 01:42:22,880 It's such an important way of thinking through it. 1962 01:42:23,480 --> 01:42:26,560 Yeah. And your work here is so awesome 1963 01:42:26,560 --> 01:42:31,600 my. God, I mean, this is. 82% Lamar 1964 01:42:32,160 --> 01:42:35,960 and Allen and you know, it could be light as to what it should 1965 01:42:35,960 --> 01:42:37,360 be. It could be light. 1966 01:42:37,560 --> 01:42:42,200 Should not not as an ownership projection wise? 1967 01:42:42,200 --> 01:42:44,720 I mean, people do tend to gal brain stuff a little bit at 1968 01:42:44,720 --> 01:42:47,200 quarterback. Like, you know, I, I had no Goff 1969 01:42:47,200 --> 01:42:50,560 and Herbert look like I'm like I'm not playing any of that. 1970 01:42:50,560 --> 01:42:56,600 But like there usually is some people who play like the the off 1971 01:42:56,600 --> 01:43:02,280 the beaten paths quarterback. So last year Stafford was was 1% 1972 01:43:02,280 --> 01:43:05,200 owned. Flacco was 2% owned, Stroud 1%, 1973 01:43:06,760 --> 01:43:12,120 Purdy 5 DAC 8I projected DAC two, he came in eight. 1974 01:43:12,120 --> 01:43:16,800 I protected Purdy two, he came in five, projected Placo Zero 1975 01:43:16,800 --> 01:43:20,080 came in two, Stafford Zero came in one, Stroud Zero came in one. 1976 01:43:20,080 --> 01:43:26,120 So that's like one thing I've like, I want to take these guys 1977 01:43:26,120 --> 01:43:28,440 to 0, but I don't think they come in at 00. 1978 01:43:30,480 --> 01:43:32,480 I think what you have is probably about right. 1979 01:43:32,480 --> 01:43:34,320 I mean, we talked about the hurts thing hurts. 1980 01:43:34,720 --> 01:43:38,200 If depending on the news, maybe be more like 6:00-ish but. 1981 01:43:38,800 --> 01:43:41,520 Based on what you just read, Baker's going to have one like 1982 01:43:41,600 --> 01:43:44,760 some of uses 0 that'll. Baker's probably going to have 1983 01:43:44,760 --> 01:43:47,960 one. Darnold's probably going to have 1984 01:43:47,960 --> 01:43:50,400 one. He might have one. 1985 01:43:50,400 --> 01:43:54,360 Yep. The rest are probably good at 0. 1986 01:43:56,320 --> 01:43:57,600 Yeah, those are good calls we have. 1987 01:43:57,680 --> 01:44:00,080 People who play golf, I definitely. 1988 01:44:00,480 --> 01:44:04,080 I'm sort of interested to see some SIM stuff with like Detroit 1989 01:44:04,080 --> 01:44:06,520 Coast Super Bowl. Like if it has golf. 1990 01:44:07,920 --> 01:44:10,400 He's had those spread out, big TD games. 1991 01:44:12,640 --> 01:44:16,440 Let's see, yeah, it's just going to be really hard for people to 1992 01:44:16,440 --> 01:44:18,880 get to other quarterbacks. And then the third quarterback 1993 01:44:18,880 --> 01:44:21,000 hasn't even cleared the concussion protocol yet. 1994 01:44:21,000 --> 01:44:23,160 The 4th hasn't shown a ceiling all year. 1995 01:44:23,360 --> 01:44:26,040 I mean it just it gets thin so quickly. 1996 01:44:27,160 --> 01:44:32,600 I do wonder, I mean, I, I Daniel's looks fun. 1997 01:44:32,600 --> 01:44:35,280 Obviously Hertz looks fun because they're mobile even more 1998 01:44:35,280 --> 01:44:37,080 than Mahomes. I'm like, is Herbert a play? 1999 01:44:37,080 --> 01:44:38,960 We were just talking about how like the Chargers are hard to 2000 01:44:38,960 --> 01:44:40,680 play. Like what if they go on a run? 2001 01:44:42,480 --> 01:44:44,800 I think you won, Mcconkey. I mean, you know. 2002 01:44:45,640 --> 01:44:48,880 I could see Herbert in three games right where it's like you, 2003 01:44:48,920 --> 01:44:51,560 you get the Dobbins game, you get the QJ game, you get the lad 2004 01:44:51,560 --> 01:44:55,320 game kind of thing. The the really hard part that I 2005 01:44:55,320 --> 01:44:57,400 keep coming back to is what Gretch said. 2006 01:44:57,400 --> 01:45:02,480 It's just highly probable one of Lamar or Allen gets three games 2007 01:45:03,560 --> 01:45:07,520 and it's like there's definitely ways like I I could see it more 2008 01:45:07,520 --> 01:45:09,640 with like if Lamar's the one that gets three games and 2009 01:45:09,640 --> 01:45:13,360 Derrick Henry's smashing, Herbert can definitely beat 2010 01:45:13,360 --> 01:45:17,040 Lamar for sure. With Alan it's a little tougher 2011 01:45:17,040 --> 01:45:21,240 to see if you get 3 Alan games. Yeah, Herbert, I think you got 2012 01:45:21,240 --> 01:45:23,480 to play him all the way to the Super Bowl and say that he threw 2013 01:45:23,640 --> 01:45:26,120 3 touchdowns in the Super Bowl and he gets the double points. 2014 01:45:26,120 --> 01:45:27,720 I mean, that's the only way it really works. 2015 01:45:29,200 --> 01:45:32,200 And even still, it might be Alan or Lamar because it'll be one of 2016 01:45:32,200 --> 01:45:33,760 his teammates catching those TDs. 2017 01:45:33,880 --> 01:45:35,480 Like that was like, Ben is Mcconkey. 2018 01:45:35,760 --> 01:45:39,360 Like it might be. I think you're right, Leoni. 2019 01:45:39,360 --> 01:45:42,160 It's it's, I mean, the way that Buffalo and Baltimore match up 2020 01:45:42,160 --> 01:45:44,320 in the second round, you got to feel like it's. 2021 01:45:44,960 --> 01:45:47,320 I, I, I'm definitely, I definitely want to see how that 2022 01:45:47,320 --> 01:45:50,040 sends out because like Jayden, we have Jayden. 2023 01:45:50,680 --> 01:45:55,320 I mean, Jayden at 2% to me is the one that's like, but God, 2024 01:45:55,320 --> 01:45:57,640 yeah, I just then you got to play him into. 2025 01:45:57,920 --> 01:46:04,480 You need, you need the Ravens to beat the Bills and then lose to 2026 01:46:04,480 --> 01:46:08,120 the to the Chiefs and then have it be Henry. 2027 01:46:09,520 --> 01:46:13,240 Your Henry Daniels beats. You know, they're flex. 2028 01:46:13,240 --> 01:46:15,000 Plus Lamar. Yeah. 2029 01:46:15,080 --> 01:46:18,040 And Allen only plays two games. Certainly plausible, yeah. 2030 01:46:18,640 --> 01:46:20,680 Yeah, but Washington's the. Baltimore. 2031 01:46:20,880 --> 01:46:22,040 Yeah. If you're going concurring at 2032 01:46:22,040 --> 01:46:24,520 quarterback, you want Baltimore over Buffalo. 2033 01:46:24,680 --> 01:46:27,320 There's way more. Options, Yes, yeah, you want to 2034 01:46:27,320 --> 01:46:32,560 fade Buffalo and yeah, play through Henry and then then you 2035 01:46:32,560 --> 01:46:34,600 can. Then you can go, I mean, 2036 01:46:34,600 --> 01:46:37,000 frankly, you probably want to do your Hertz teams like that too, 2037 01:46:37,440 --> 01:46:39,200 but definitely like your Daniels. 2038 01:46:39,920 --> 01:46:42,280 Daniels I think you also might want to be thinking about 2039 01:46:42,280 --> 01:46:45,240 Packers beating the Eagles because then they get to go to 2040 01:46:45,280 --> 01:46:49,640 the winner of the Rams, Vikings and the Packers go to Lions. 2041 01:46:49,640 --> 01:46:51,600 It helps the commander's path quite a bit. 2042 01:46:51,920 --> 01:46:54,920 I like that a lot. I mean, Daniels is Daniels might 2043 01:46:54,920 --> 01:46:57,320 be a touch light because he is pretty fun. 2044 01:46:59,360 --> 01:47:03,920 Yeah, and his teammates are like super, like he's not super 2045 01:47:03,920 --> 01:47:07,360 condensed, so he's got that separation aspect from his 2046 01:47:07,360 --> 01:47:10,800 teammates. Right, yeah, I'm going to raise, 2047 01:47:10,800 --> 01:47:12,320 I'm going to raise him to like 4, right? 2048 01:47:12,360 --> 01:47:16,640 I mean, he's he's a fun play. Yeah, he's going to be a top 2049 01:47:16,640 --> 01:47:18,440 five quarterback in ADP next year. 2050 01:47:18,440 --> 01:47:20,400 Like people know he's good at fantasy. 2051 01:47:22,400 --> 01:47:28,840 Yeah, I stole it from Alan. Yeah, I think the the two that 2052 01:47:28,840 --> 01:47:32,200 stand out to me are like the the Jayden Baker and just like 2053 01:47:32,200 --> 01:47:35,680 whoever wins that those quarterbacks, if they if they 2054 01:47:35,680 --> 01:47:39,360 snap off a second and get three games, I could see either of 2055 01:47:39,360 --> 01:47:41,280 those quarterbacks being in play. 2056 01:47:42,160 --> 01:47:44,760 Cause Baker can spread it around like nobody's for sure. 2057 01:47:45,480 --> 01:47:48,280 Someone who's tilted, Devin Culp catches. 2058 01:47:48,280 --> 01:47:52,840 I can attach to that. Go to, go to running back and 2059 01:47:52,840 --> 01:47:56,440 receive real quick. One thing just to know, because 2060 01:47:56,520 --> 01:48:00,960 the, the there's some Lamar love in the chat, which I I totally 2061 01:48:00,960 --> 01:48:03,400 get, but I do feel pretty good about this. 2062 01:48:03,400 --> 01:48:06,520 Last year I projected Lamar 55, Allen 33. 2063 01:48:06,880 --> 01:48:12,080 It was Lamar 41, Allen 34. And that's that's Ravens one 2064 01:48:12,080 --> 01:48:18,240 seed with Lamar winning MVP. So yeah, I think and the natural 2065 01:48:18,480 --> 01:48:20,200 break is going to go towards Allen. 2066 01:48:22,680 --> 01:48:28,600 Let me get a running back. That's without Henry, too, by 2067 01:48:28,600 --> 01:48:30,560 the way. And and Andrews was hurt. 2068 01:48:31,000 --> 01:48:34,120 Kind of wild. All right, Barkley, I've been 2069 01:48:34,120 --> 01:48:36,840 slowly raising as we've just going to make adjustments. 2070 01:48:37,360 --> 01:48:42,200 Except the 77 now. Gibbs, Henry. 2071 01:48:42,200 --> 01:48:45,800 Yeah, Jacobs probably comes down a little. 2072 01:48:45,800 --> 01:48:48,120 I think I'm going to fade the Packers a bit more. 2073 01:48:49,160 --> 01:48:56,760 Bucky looks way too high to me. But keep them there for the 2074 01:48:56,800 --> 01:49:00,160 sheets, you know, it's like. Yeah, this looks, this looks 2075 01:49:00,160 --> 01:49:03,760 good to me. Yeah, Jacob seems just, you 2076 01:49:03,760 --> 01:49:06,280 know, juxtaposed here across the other ones like a smidge high, 2077 01:49:06,280 --> 01:49:08,320 but. Yeah, he he is for sure. 2078 01:49:09,320 --> 01:49:11,240 Kyron's the other potential Lakers play. 2079 01:49:11,240 --> 01:49:13,720 I mean, Kyron and Nixon in the teens are. 2080 01:49:15,160 --> 01:49:19,680 Yeah, but Kyron's got, I mean, Nixon's got Nico, but we've 2081 01:49:19,680 --> 01:49:21,360 talked about the puka thing like that's. 2082 01:49:21,840 --> 01:49:24,840 Kyron and a loss is like almost what you need it to be and 2083 01:49:24,920 --> 01:49:27,720 Chiron games are are hard and a loss. 2084 01:49:28,080 --> 01:49:31,160 Yeah, it's true. You basically need like a puka 2085 01:49:31,160 --> 01:49:34,760 injury it feels like gets banged up somehow. 2086 01:49:34,760 --> 01:49:44,000 What do you got at receiver? You guys called this last night 2087 01:49:44,000 --> 01:49:46,760 I think I Jefferson over puka and you're like, no, no, no, no, 2088 01:49:46,760 --> 01:49:49,480 it's puka. And so, yeah, Puka's the chalk 2089 01:49:49,480 --> 01:49:52,480 now. It's wild to see Lad and 2090 01:49:52,480 --> 01:49:54,600 Mclaurin next, but I mean it makes sense. 2091 01:49:55,520 --> 01:49:58,280 Yep. This gets to be in the running 2092 01:49:58,280 --> 01:50:01,320 back season, man. There's no Jamar Chase. 2093 01:50:01,960 --> 01:50:04,000 Sutton Sutton does feel a little high here. 2094 01:50:05,440 --> 01:50:08,520 Pickens now down below 10%. A.J. 2095 01:50:08,520 --> 01:50:11,160 Brown below 10. We moved him down, yeah. 2096 01:50:12,280 --> 01:50:14,160 Yeah, Mclaurin goes down a little. 2097 01:50:14,160 --> 01:50:16,400 I'm going to fade Washington more than I have it now. 2098 01:50:16,400 --> 01:50:20,000 So Mclaurin will come down not a ton, but but definitely a little 2099 01:50:20,000 --> 01:50:22,760 bit. If if Lions were playing this 2100 01:50:22,760 --> 01:50:26,160 week and we got the David Montgomery active news or, you 2101 01:50:26,160 --> 01:50:29,440 know, full practice stuff, I would start like boosting up a 2102 01:50:29,440 --> 01:50:31,840 Mon raw, bringing down Gibbs a little bit. 2103 01:50:31,840 --> 01:50:35,120 I just, I think there's going to be a lag to the reaction to that 2104 01:50:35,120 --> 01:50:37,560 with it just out of sight, out of mind on the BI. 2105 01:50:38,160 --> 01:50:39,120 Yeah, dude. Are they? 2106 01:50:39,840 --> 01:50:41,360 Is it just he? Does stand out there though, 2107 01:50:41,360 --> 01:50:46,200 right? Are these receivers a little 2108 01:50:46,200 --> 01:50:48,520 shakier than we've had in past years? 2109 01:50:48,520 --> 01:50:51,600 Once you get past puka? For sure. 2110 01:50:51,600 --> 01:50:54,720 And. We used to have like loaded, you 2111 01:50:55,400 --> 01:50:58,760 know, Devante Adams was always a fixture in here. 2112 01:50:59,760 --> 01:51:03,640 Yeah, I guess if you pre filled like Adam, Super Cop, CD Lamb, I 2113 01:51:03,640 --> 01:51:04,840 mean. Yeah. 2114 01:51:05,000 --> 01:51:08,720 Last year we had CD 87. We've had Jamar chases. 2115 01:51:09,880 --> 01:51:13,400 Tyreke 50 7's 43. Yeah, Tyree kill. 2116 01:51:13,520 --> 01:51:16,800 I mean with the Dolphins even, but especially back with KC. 2117 01:51:19,000 --> 01:51:20,760 Well, I guess I had Kelsey back then, but. 2118 01:51:21,320 --> 01:51:25,520 Yep, Yeah, it it falls off. Yeah, A.J. 2119 01:51:25,520 --> 01:51:28,440 Brown definitely looks looks nice when you stare at all this. 2120 01:51:28,520 --> 01:51:34,160 How do your soft fades land here real quick before we the OK? 2121 01:51:34,680 --> 01:51:37,160 Let's see kicker and knee kicker. 2122 01:51:37,680 --> 01:51:43,240 Yeah, kicker tried to stay flatter this year because if if 2123 01:51:43,240 --> 01:51:46,560 there's one if there's one like leak in my game here, I'd say 2124 01:51:46,560 --> 01:51:51,600 it's I haven't nailed the soft fades like I've I've been very 2125 01:51:51,600 --> 01:51:56,520 good with the overall fades, but identifying how it breaks out 2126 01:51:56,520 --> 01:52:01,120 between hard fade kicker and defense has been kind of shaky. 2127 01:52:01,120 --> 01:52:02,920 So I. It's probably pretty random. 2128 01:52:03,560 --> 01:52:06,840 I mean, it feels like the thing that the the market is actually 2129 01:52:06,840 --> 01:52:09,200 deciding at the very end by just clicking buttons. 2130 01:52:09,320 --> 01:52:13,920 Random, but like, oddly concentrated randomness. 2131 01:52:14,360 --> 01:52:17,720 Like yeah, everyone seems to somehow end up the same way. 2132 01:52:18,640 --> 01:52:22,360 Right, I need to like listen to more stuff on that like, you 2133 01:52:22,400 --> 01:52:25,720 know, this is like I, I need to get the sentiment of the of the 2134 01:52:25,720 --> 01:52:27,880 crowd a little bit more because. I think this is where. 2135 01:52:28,240 --> 01:52:30,760 The oh, go ahead. I was is it maybe the one year 2136 01:52:30,760 --> 01:52:33,200 stuck in my head though, Like do you have the actuals last year 2137 01:52:33,200 --> 01:52:38,160 on kicker and and yeah, was it? No, I was, I was pretty wrong 2138 01:52:38,160 --> 01:52:39,040 last year on it. Let's see. 2139 01:52:39,040 --> 01:52:45,160 Let me see. No, I wasn't that wrong. 2140 01:52:45,160 --> 01:52:50,360 But Jake Elliott was the chalk kicker 28% I had 25. 2141 01:52:50,360 --> 01:52:57,600 Kaemi Fairbear was 24, I had 19. Houston 18 was the chalk. 2142 01:52:57,600 --> 01:53:01,040 DI had 20. Here's where I was wrong. 2143 01:53:01,080 --> 01:53:04,040 And so I had, I thought Cleveland would be really chalky 2144 01:53:04,520 --> 01:53:07,960 at on defense and they were only 13%. 2145 01:53:07,960 --> 01:53:11,240 I had them at 32, but it was part of because I thought, I 2146 01:53:11,400 --> 01:53:16,520 thought people would actually fade Cleveland who lost and they 2147 01:53:16,520 --> 01:53:19,240 didn't, they did not fade them at all. 2148 01:53:19,760 --> 01:53:21,000 So that was just kind of a bigger miss. 2149 01:53:21,000 --> 01:53:23,800 I had them 36% faded and they were 18%. 2150 01:53:23,800 --> 01:53:25,840 So people just didn't fade them as part of it. 2151 01:53:28,240 --> 01:53:30,640 So yeah, so I think sometimes maybe that's been it of like, 2152 01:53:30,640 --> 01:53:33,080 I'm like, I thought that was a good beta team. 2153 01:53:33,080 --> 01:53:34,640 They don't and then they soft fade them. 2154 01:53:35,080 --> 01:53:37,800 That meant that was a unique. That was a storyline where 2155 01:53:37,800 --> 01:53:41,600 Flacco had gone to Houston and had that monster game and both 2156 01:53:41,640 --> 01:53:45,640 Amari and in joke who went off in week 716 or 17 or whatever, 2157 01:53:45,880 --> 01:53:48,480 and then he was going back to Houston this and everyone was 2158 01:53:48,480 --> 01:53:50,040 like, this was a shootout 3 weeks ago. 2159 01:53:50,720 --> 01:53:53,000 Like there's always this weird little independent narratives, 2160 01:53:53,000 --> 01:53:54,280 but that's why no one faded Cleveland. 2161 01:53:54,280 --> 01:53:55,920 They wanted to play both sides of that game bad. 2162 01:53:57,880 --> 01:54:02,280 That's a good .2 years ago I got I, I under projected Justin 2163 01:54:02,280 --> 01:54:04,320 Tucker. He came in 43%. 2164 01:54:04,320 --> 01:54:06,320 I had him at 22. I had him as the chalk kicker, 2165 01:54:06,320 --> 01:54:09,160 but I just underestimated how strong the chalk would be. 2166 01:54:11,640 --> 01:54:13,920 Yeah, two year I had Jacksonville at 5. 2167 01:54:13,920 --> 01:54:21,560 They came in at 20 on defense. So I, I think the team that 2168 01:54:21,560 --> 01:54:26,200 people, it's probably, it's probably Houston the where where 2169 01:54:26,200 --> 01:54:28,120 a decent amount of the stuff goes because they're just like, 2170 01:54:28,120 --> 01:54:32,720 I'm going to Houston, I'm going to soft bait this team, right. 2171 01:54:32,800 --> 01:54:35,440 Like or Tampa, Washington if people don't actually. 2172 01:54:35,760 --> 01:54:37,640 Or Tampa, Washington. Yeah, yeah. 2173 01:54:38,200 --> 01:54:40,840 Yeah, those are the two soft baits, I think. 2174 01:54:41,760 --> 01:54:46,120 Yeah, I just think Chargers, Chargers, Texans is gonna 2175 01:54:46,120 --> 01:54:49,560 separate from the for the fade. I mean, it does not. 2176 01:54:49,560 --> 01:54:52,440 No one wants to fade the highest total game on the slate with two 2177 01:54:52,440 --> 01:54:54,520 explosive offenses. Like there's no one wants to do 2178 01:54:54,520 --> 01:54:56,480 that. Whereas people can still think 2179 01:54:56,480 --> 01:54:59,800 of the Chargers, the the Harbaugh run the ball stigma and 2180 01:54:59,800 --> 01:55:02,840 the Texans are like the most fraudulent team in the playoffs. 2181 01:55:02,840 --> 01:55:05,920 Like it's the soft fade ball. It is the soft fade ball for 2182 01:55:06,000 --> 01:55:08,200 sure. What do you got for D? 2183 01:55:10,440 --> 01:55:17,800 For D 011 SEC Chris, Chris got me here. 2184 01:55:17,800 --> 01:55:30,240 Everyone going to condense on Cyprus, Pittsburgh, Houston, 2185 01:55:30,600 --> 01:55:34,200 Green Bay, Washington, Denver. So I kept this fairly flat, but 2186 01:55:34,200 --> 01:55:40,000 I think Houston probably comes up and Washington probably comes 2187 01:55:40,000 --> 01:55:49,880 up. Yeah, Baker throws picks, and I 2188 01:55:49,880 --> 01:55:52,080 think people probably saw fade that game a little bit more than 2189 01:55:52,080 --> 01:55:54,800 I have. I think people would rather play 2190 01:55:54,800 --> 01:55:59,920 Washington, D than Denver D. Yep, Denver. 2191 01:55:59,920 --> 01:56:03,160 D it seems. Like the teams you you should 2192 01:56:03,160 --> 01:56:05,640 check this pack because I could be wrong but I feel like the 2193 01:56:05,640 --> 01:56:10,400 teams that are the biggest underdogs sometimes get like 2194 01:56:10,400 --> 01:56:13,520 fully faded even on the DST on the kicker. 2195 01:56:14,280 --> 01:56:15,960 Yeah, that's that's what we talked about earlier. 2196 01:56:16,960 --> 01:56:24,680 So last year Pittsburgh 76% hard faded and they were 95% total 2197 01:56:24,680 --> 01:56:30,720 faded and then Packers 59% hard faded and 74% total. 2198 01:56:30,800 --> 01:56:31,720 But that was for what it's worth. 2199 01:56:31,720 --> 01:56:34,360 I over projected both of the hard fades there though. 2200 01:56:34,880 --> 01:56:36,080 Actually heavy. Even less. 2201 01:56:36,080 --> 01:56:39,720 Maybe not, yeah. What do you have for hard fades 2202 01:56:39,760 --> 01:56:42,560 here? Hard fades. 2203 01:56:44,720 --> 01:56:47,720 The last one, we haven't done 65 and 50. 2204 01:56:48,160 --> 01:56:51,040 I mean, I still feel like Denver's I Denver I think is 2205 01:56:51,040 --> 01:56:52,360 unique. I'm telling you guys, people 2206 01:56:52,360 --> 01:56:54,240 just hate this team. They're spread out. 2207 01:56:54,680 --> 01:56:58,720 They don't trust Bonex. I think it's going to be 75 to 2208 01:56:58,720 --> 01:57:00,520 80% hard fate. It's going to be absurd. 2209 01:57:00,960 --> 01:57:04,360 Well, not hard fate, but you, you mean hard fate. 2210 01:57:04,360 --> 01:57:05,760 They're not going to play anything. 2211 01:57:06,920 --> 01:57:09,520 What was the highest last? Year like hard fate would be 2212 01:57:13,200 --> 01:57:16,960 well the highest was 76% for Pittsburgh, but they were 95% 2213 01:57:16,960 --> 01:57:19,680 total faded. Do you think that are we in that 2214 01:57:19,680 --> 01:57:21,920 kind of range? Probably not Denver's D is good. 2215 01:57:21,920 --> 01:57:24,320 There will be some people that talk to results in a Denver. 2216 01:57:24,320 --> 01:57:28,600 'S probably right here. Yeah, I have them. 2217 01:57:28,640 --> 01:57:35,040 I have them 85% total faded, which maybe is a little low and 2218 01:57:35,040 --> 01:57:36,960 then a bunch of that going through the hard faded. 2219 01:57:36,960 --> 01:57:40,640 I can't believe we're at 28% Green Bay fade and it's probably 2220 01:57:40,640 --> 01:57:46,200 like about right, I know. Wait, you want that to be more 2221 01:57:46,200 --> 01:57:49,840 or less? I'm just tilted that this 2222 01:57:49,840 --> 01:57:53,280 universe exists where that's reasonable. 2223 01:57:53,280 --> 01:57:55,320 But they're not more of a fun playoff team. 2224 01:57:55,400 --> 01:57:57,920 Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I feel like it's 2225 01:57:57,920 --> 01:58:00,120 surprising that they didn't try harder to win. 2226 01:58:00,400 --> 01:58:03,680 It didn't end up mattering, but they're in a spot where they got 2227 01:58:03,680 --> 01:58:07,200 to beat the the two clear best NFC teams on the road. 2228 01:58:07,360 --> 01:58:09,840 They got to beat the the Eagles. And then even if they win that 2229 01:58:09,840 --> 01:58:15,600 they they have to go to the Lions, they still have really 2230 01:58:15,600 --> 01:58:18,240 good odds to win the NFC. They're like the fourth highest 2231 01:58:18,440 --> 01:58:21,960 odds. I was talking to Brat who works 2232 01:58:21,960 --> 01:58:25,800 with us at ETR and he, he, he thinks those odds are just just 2233 01:58:25,800 --> 01:58:27,600 bad. Like, you know, there's public 2234 01:58:27,600 --> 01:58:31,120 money and they they shift the odds and you know, there's, it's 2235 01:58:31,120 --> 01:58:36,160 not a two way market. What he He likes the Green Bay 2236 01:58:36,160 --> 01:58:39,040 side. You know, he doesn't like their 2237 01:58:39,120 --> 01:58:42,640 their odds to go to the Super Bowl are pretty high relative to 2238 01:58:42,680 --> 01:58:45,720 how hard their path is. Like, if you looked at it just 2239 01:58:45,720 --> 01:58:49,920 as, oh, we think Green Bay's good, the odds make sense. 2240 01:58:49,920 --> 01:58:54,680 But when you look at what Gretch is saying at Philly, at Detroit, 2241 01:58:55,360 --> 01:58:59,080 at Minnesota, like. You're not doing it. 2242 01:58:59,600 --> 01:59:03,480 I mean, that's 9% seems kind of high when you look at it that 2243 01:59:03,480 --> 01:59:08,200 way. Yeah, even if you say they're 2244 01:59:08,200 --> 01:59:10,840 better than all those teams, it's really unlikely that they 2245 01:59:10,840 --> 01:59:12,080 win all three of those on the road. 2246 01:59:12,520 --> 01:59:15,600 They're only like 34% to win round one or something. 2247 01:59:15,960 --> 01:59:21,840 Yeah, right. Thank you guys all for helping 2248 01:59:21,840 --> 01:59:26,720 us workshop these tonight. Very valuable conversation. 2249 01:59:26,720 --> 01:59:28,560 Got some new members still trickling in. 2250 01:59:28,560 --> 01:59:31,000 Make sure you guys sync those accounts in the Deposit Kingdom 2251 01:59:31,000 --> 01:59:33,160 discord. Unlock the ship chasing channel 2252 01:59:33,160 --> 01:59:36,080 and go to the pinned messages. You can find those ownership 2253 01:59:36,080 --> 01:59:39,360 projections if you want to review these, and as Pat tweaks 2254 01:59:39,360 --> 01:59:41,640 them throughout the week, you should be able to see those 2255 01:59:41,640 --> 01:59:45,760 updated as well. We're going to take tomorrow 2256 01:59:45,760 --> 01:59:49,680 night off. We will be back on Thursday with 2257 01:59:49,680 --> 01:59:53,400 Draco and Chris G going to maybe have a little bit of a 2258 01:59:53,400 --> 01:59:55,120 hodgepodge. We'll do a couple underdog 2259 01:59:55,120 --> 02:00:00,200 drafts, Chris G, former Gauntlet winner, and Draco a playoff 2260 02:00:00,200 --> 02:00:02,840 savant as well. So we'll have fun talking about 2261 02:00:02,840 --> 02:00:05,080 a few different angles and then on Friday. 2262 02:00:05,680 --> 02:00:07,800 So it's going to be a teeny bit later, 9:00 PM Eastern. 2263 02:00:07,800 --> 02:00:11,400 We'll get Leone back here, see if we can pry Dink away from his 2264 02:00:11,400 --> 02:00:15,440 NBA spreadsheets, and we'll have, you know, a drink or two 2265 02:00:15,440 --> 02:00:22,720 and have one last pow wow before the contest locks on Saturday. 2266 02:00:23,320 --> 02:00:27,280 Anything else for you guys here as we wrap up the second night? 2267 02:00:28,120 --> 02:00:31,000 Shout out Carane. I I think for for the hard work 2268 02:00:31,000 --> 02:00:34,120 on this. This is an awesome exercise it 2269 02:00:34,120 --> 02:00:36,760 takes. I think we need to say that I 2270 02:00:36,760 --> 02:00:39,520 think we need to clear we need to double down on that. 2271 02:00:39,520 --> 02:00:42,280 We've already said it, but the chat asked all these questions 2272 02:00:42,280 --> 02:00:45,960 throughout and I think you really get to how hard it is to 2273 02:00:45,960 --> 02:00:48,640 go through this whole process and come to all the answers that 2274 02:00:48,640 --> 02:00:51,680 Carane always comes to. And then when they've asked 2275 02:00:51,680 --> 02:00:54,080 these questions, you guys have seen that he's had answers for a 2276 02:00:54,080 --> 02:00:55,760 lot of them. There's reasons for a lot of the 2277 02:00:55,760 --> 02:00:57,840 stuff like Jameson Williams being as low as he was or 2278 02:00:57,840 --> 02:00:59,200 whatever when we went through all that. 2279 02:00:59,600 --> 02:01:02,200 These are a really useful tool if you want to play this 2280 02:01:02,200 --> 02:01:05,400 contest. You can pick out the spots where 2281 02:01:05,800 --> 02:01:08,240 you think it's too low or there's opportunities, there's 2282 02:01:08,240 --> 02:01:12,400 leverage, what have you. But I trust Karain implicitly to 2283 02:01:12,400 --> 02:01:14,600 get these right. He's gotten them right every 2284 02:01:14,600 --> 02:01:15,920 year. I mean, he's done really, really 2285 02:01:15,920 --> 02:01:17,600 well on this. And if he doesn't get them 2286 02:01:17,600 --> 02:01:18,920 right, we just get to blame him. So it's. 2287 02:01:18,960 --> 02:01:19,400 Really. Yeah. 2288 02:01:19,600 --> 02:01:23,440 It's a it's a bad job by me to not bring you guys in, close the 2289 02:01:23,440 --> 02:01:25,200 ship, Jake saying we all put our heads together. 2290 02:01:27,080 --> 02:01:31,960 It's low floor for me. I will say I we do normally 2291 02:01:32,360 --> 02:01:36,760 quickly build a $35 team with some ideas knocking around in 2292 02:01:36,760 --> 02:01:38,040 our heads. Someone mentioned that in the 2293 02:01:38,040 --> 02:01:39,280 chat. You guys want to want to build a 2294 02:01:39,280 --> 02:01:40,760 quick one here. Yeah, let's do it. 2295 02:01:41,360 --> 02:01:46,080 All right, let's do it. I will register us right now and 2296 02:01:46,080 --> 02:01:49,560 get this screen shared. Leona, you're a guest of honor. 2297 02:01:49,800 --> 02:01:52,720 Who do you want to kick off this lineup with? 2298 02:01:53,160 --> 02:01:56,200 Josh Allen, He. Just started smiling as soon as 2299 02:01:56,280 --> 02:01:59,360 he. Is wow, no hesitation. 2300 02:01:59,360 --> 02:02:01,680 Super Bowl MVP Josh Allen. You're not sure? 2301 02:02:01,800 --> 02:02:04,160 It's just to be clear. Yeah, no, I'm. 2302 02:02:04,160 --> 02:02:05,640 I'm getting it up. I had to register. 2303 02:02:07,000 --> 02:02:08,560 All right, here we go. Alpha plays. 2304 02:02:08,600 --> 02:02:13,280 Only Josh Allen is in. Big Josh Allen before you even 2305 02:02:13,280 --> 02:02:16,280 had time to register. That's right. 2306 02:02:17,720 --> 02:02:19,160 All right. Well, we can just keep going 2307 02:02:19,160 --> 02:02:22,280 around the horn like we normally do. 2308 02:02:23,000 --> 02:02:25,680 I got I started to get pretty excited about the Aman Raw stuff 2309 02:02:25,680 --> 02:02:29,480 as we were talking about it. Let's toss him in as our wide 2310 02:02:29,480 --> 02:02:32,120 receiver. Pat, the pic is yours. 2311 02:02:35,040 --> 02:02:39,120 Joe Mixon. OK, OK. 2312 02:02:39,200 --> 02:02:41,320 A really good thing. Here we go. 2313 02:02:41,960 --> 02:02:44,760 I also want to, I remember last year, I want to say it was the 2314 02:02:44,760 --> 02:02:48,040 team we built the $35.00 with Hassan and Blair after the 2315 02:02:48,040 --> 02:02:50,120 Monday or whatever. The early week episode was a 2316 02:02:50,120 --> 02:02:53,320 really good lineup that was cooking in the 35. 2317 02:02:53,320 --> 02:02:56,200 So there's something to be said about your early week in early 2318 02:02:56,200 --> 02:03:02,120 week instincts here, Gretsch. Chat most of your plan. 2319 02:03:04,520 --> 02:03:10,920 We only took a little bit of a chalk pick at first, but yeah, I 2320 02:03:10,920 --> 02:03:14,480 want to, I think I want to get you to get a more of a unique 2321 02:03:14,480 --> 02:03:16,120 one, Leone. So I'm going to take a chalk one 2322 02:03:16,120 --> 02:03:17,960 here. So I'm going to take puka for 2323 02:03:17,960 --> 02:03:21,160 us. That's not where I thought you 2324 02:03:21,160 --> 02:03:24,480 were going. I love puka. 2325 02:03:24,840 --> 02:03:26,600 Are we snaking or we're just? We're just. 2326 02:03:26,840 --> 02:03:28,160 Back. No, no, we're just going around. 2327 02:03:28,160 --> 02:03:33,720 Oh man, back to me. OK, OK, so we got man. 2328 02:03:33,720 --> 02:03:36,280 What do you do with Baltimore in a loss? 2329 02:03:36,280 --> 02:03:38,440 I'm going to punt that decision to someone else. 2330 02:03:40,200 --> 02:03:47,720 I kind of want to. I know I'm, I'm, I'm being. 2331 02:03:48,600 --> 02:03:49,960 No. Boring and slow. 2332 02:03:50,000 --> 02:03:51,920 I'm gonna go on. We want you to influence the 2333 02:03:51,920 --> 02:03:53,040 lineup. A.J. 2334 02:03:53,040 --> 02:03:55,720 Brown. OK, A.J. 2335 02:03:55,720 --> 02:04:00,640 Brown, here we go. We got Josh Allen, Joe Mixon, 2336 02:04:00,640 --> 02:04:03,400 Amanra St. Brown Pukanakua. 2337 02:04:04,200 --> 02:04:09,520 A.J. Brown here, let's go ahead. 2338 02:04:09,560 --> 02:04:14,000 And I feel like this will be unique to not use if we don't 2339 02:04:14,000 --> 02:04:17,400 have Barkley and we don't have Bucky, let's keep this flipped 2340 02:04:17,400 --> 02:04:19,320 and and let's go. Let's go, Mike Evans. 2341 02:04:21,440 --> 02:04:25,560 OK, he wanted to. Play Bucky after. 2342 02:04:25,560 --> 02:04:26,400 Easter, I know you. I can't. 2343 02:04:26,400 --> 02:04:29,080 Believe you didn't pick Bucky. I know Greg wants a radio. 2344 02:04:29,200 --> 02:04:31,160 He wants a molligan now for. Sure. 2345 02:04:31,400 --> 02:04:33,720 As soon as he took Agent Brown, I was like, well, then I want to 2346 02:04:33,720 --> 02:04:36,320 take Josh Jacobs and then we got both sides of that game, so I 2347 02:04:36,320 --> 02:04:37,560 want to play Washington's kicker. 2348 02:04:37,560 --> 02:04:39,160 I was like, I'm doing all this shit in my head do. 2349 02:04:41,280 --> 02:04:42,440 We still play Washington's kicker. 2350 02:04:42,440 --> 02:04:44,480 It is, yeah. We. 2351 02:04:45,440 --> 02:04:48,480 Pat. I think I am going to play Josh 2352 02:04:48,480 --> 02:04:53,720 Jacobs. OK, see, this is This is why I 2353 02:04:53,720 --> 02:04:56,880 think this is like the classic flip the build, right? 2354 02:04:56,920 --> 02:05:01,000 Like you don't have Barkley, I guess TBD on Henry, but if we're 2355 02:05:01,000 --> 02:05:04,600 playing them as a loss and having just Mixon and Jacobs as 2356 02:05:04,600 --> 02:05:06,760 you're ready backs and then going to all these wide receiver 2357 02:05:06,760 --> 02:05:08,200 pivots. That are really trying. 2358 02:05:08,280 --> 02:05:10,840 Pivots. We have arguably every team's 2359 02:05:10,840 --> 02:05:13,280 best player and this is super contrarian already. 2360 02:05:13,280 --> 02:05:16,320 Exactly, This is why you don't have to play Marvin Mims and 2361 02:05:16,320 --> 02:05:17,840 Quinton Johnston. Yes. 2362 02:05:18,320 --> 02:05:20,280 And Evans can beat Buck in multiple games. 2363 02:05:20,280 --> 02:05:24,360 But I guess I'm thinking if if you play Packers to be pretty 2364 02:05:24,360 --> 02:05:27,920 live to beat the Eagles, you're probably saying Bucks are 2365 02:05:27,920 --> 02:05:30,880 hosting in the second round because of the three seed. 2366 02:05:32,520 --> 02:05:34,280 I'll I'll take Zane Gonzalez here. 2367 02:05:35,240 --> 02:05:37,320 We can still do that with Evans. But yeah, there's a possibility 2368 02:05:37,320 --> 02:05:40,120 the Bucks would then make would play Austin. 2369 02:05:40,200 --> 02:05:42,680 I know. I think I think Evans and Bucky 2370 02:05:42,680 --> 02:05:44,520 are pretty tight though. Like. 2371 02:05:44,520 --> 02:05:48,120 In like 3 games of two wins, do you think it's still pretty 2372 02:05:48,120 --> 02:05:49,400 tight? I think so. 2373 02:05:49,400 --> 02:05:51,440 I think I mean. Evans has a ceiling. 2374 02:05:51,760 --> 02:05:52,800 Wins, too. It's yeah. 2375 02:05:53,160 --> 02:05:57,480 If they if they were to play like a tough run defense or 2376 02:05:57,480 --> 02:05:59,880 something, you know, is there, I can't think of the is it would 2377 02:05:59,880 --> 02:06:01,320 they ever match up with the Eagles? 2378 02:06:01,320 --> 02:06:05,040 Like if they're I still think we could see a negative game script 2379 02:06:05,080 --> 02:06:07,360 all Mike Evans, Rashad White on the field a ton. 2380 02:06:07,360 --> 02:06:11,600 Like Bucky has a lower floor than over a multiple game sample 2381 02:06:11,600 --> 02:06:15,080 I feel like. It's not crazy, I just have 2382 02:06:15,080 --> 02:06:18,360 Bucky goggles. I'm actually tilted. 2383 02:06:18,360 --> 02:06:20,200 Wait, I wanted to go dicker the kicker for. 2384 02:06:21,400 --> 02:06:23,400 Oh cuz you're mixing thing. Cuz I'm mixing. 2385 02:06:23,600 --> 02:06:25,840 Thing we put it on Washington DC I'll I'll take that off. 2386 02:06:25,840 --> 02:06:28,160 I took Niku on my last one. I'll do something more fun. 2387 02:06:28,720 --> 02:06:30,960 Sorry. Zane isn't fun. 2388 02:06:31,760 --> 02:06:34,760 Zane is pretty fun considering we didn't even know he was 2389 02:06:34,760 --> 02:06:36,920 playing about. 20 minutes Did you hear about the jealousy 2390 02:06:36,920 --> 02:06:40,080 battle? I'll do Mark Andrews. 2391 02:06:40,280 --> 02:06:42,000 I think we've already done the Andrews on on. 2392 02:06:42,000 --> 02:06:45,040 Last nights but so we oh OK, we don't have tight end yet. 2393 02:06:45,640 --> 02:06:48,800 Do we not want to do Andrews? I think Andrews is good on this. 2394 02:06:49,160 --> 02:06:50,680 I mean, we're playing Baltimore to lose. 2395 02:06:50,680 --> 02:06:54,720 I think Andrews is is fine. Yeah, or it's Jim Henry. 2396 02:06:54,720 --> 02:06:57,360 On here these these builds get weird though, where you're like 2397 02:06:57,960 --> 02:07:01,840 Henry in a loss like Andrew, like like the Baltimore side 2398 02:07:01,840 --> 02:07:03,880 gets weird for sure. Right. 2399 02:07:06,520 --> 02:07:08,560 Henry in a loss would be fine. I mean, he's going to well. 2400 02:07:09,000 --> 02:07:10,600 He winning one game and then lose, yeah. 2401 02:07:11,920 --> 02:07:13,960 All right, it is. It's you, Leone. 2402 02:07:15,520 --> 02:07:19,320 Well, that's where I'm like, like, like I kind of want to 2403 02:07:19,320 --> 02:07:21,880 just still play Kelsey even though we have Andrews, but. 2404 02:07:22,280 --> 02:07:24,000 We can. I'm a little. 2405 02:07:24,320 --> 02:07:26,240 So what team? Make that, Henry, make that. 2406 02:07:26,240 --> 02:07:27,640 I'll do. I'll do a head ring setting. 2407 02:07:27,640 --> 02:07:28,560 Andrews, We're playing two games. 2408 02:07:28,560 --> 02:07:30,880 You can, you can do, you can do Andrews. 2409 02:07:31,880 --> 02:07:33,480 No, I Andrews. Is good. 2410 02:07:33,880 --> 02:07:37,320 I'm going to go. I'm going to be some chalk here. 2411 02:07:37,320 --> 02:07:41,000 I'm going to go. Given what we have, I think, I 2412 02:07:41,040 --> 02:07:46,560 think, I think Justin Jefferson. Do we want to play both sides of 2413 02:07:46,560 --> 02:07:48,960 that though, or? We can afford to do that. 2414 02:07:50,560 --> 02:07:53,320 OK, Justin Jefferson. I'll go with Justin Jefferson. 2415 02:07:53,320 --> 02:07:55,360 I think we can eat some chalk with the way this is. 2416 02:07:55,440 --> 02:07:58,160 This is setting up. Just go high as a projected 2417 02:07:58,160 --> 02:08:05,440 player on Minnesota. Well, then there there's cyber. 2418 02:08:06,160 --> 02:08:09,240 That's what's so funny that he pops in here from the the points 2419 02:08:09,240 --> 02:08:10,360 per game. He's the top. 2420 02:08:10,360 --> 02:08:12,560 He's the top kicker. That's why you saw it, right? 2421 02:08:12,560 --> 02:08:17,000 Pat yeah, that's, yeah, that's. We got to hack into FPC and 2422 02:08:17,000 --> 02:08:22,560 remove that IR tag. So if we if we call the if 2423 02:08:22,560 --> 02:08:26,040 everyone is going to soft fade the Texans chargers. 2424 02:08:26,040 --> 02:08:27,520 I like playing two skill positions. 2425 02:08:27,520 --> 02:08:29,800 So let's let's put lad in this one. 2426 02:08:30,280 --> 02:08:34,640 We now already have three head to heads just. 2427 02:08:34,640 --> 02:08:36,200 That means we're fading the Chiefs, though, Pete. 2428 02:08:38,040 --> 02:08:42,080 Don't hate it. We could do Kelsey. 2429 02:08:42,120 --> 02:08:44,520 We could do Kelsey. And then, well, if you do, if 2430 02:08:44,520 --> 02:08:47,800 you do play both sides of the Houston Chargers game, you are 2431 02:08:47,800 --> 02:08:50,000 kind of just saying like soft. Fading. 2432 02:08:50,120 --> 02:08:53,720 They're gonna beat Kansas City. Yeah. 2433 02:08:54,360 --> 02:08:57,040 That's true. I'm just pointing out that we 2434 02:08:57,040 --> 02:08:59,600 already have like. We have a ton of contrarian 2435 02:08:59,600 --> 02:09:01,920 pieces already. So yeah, let's, let's, let's 2436 02:09:01,920 --> 02:09:03,880 play Kelsey. We can go 2 tight ends here. 2437 02:09:04,160 --> 02:09:05,800 And two, tight end feels like it's going to be pretty 2438 02:09:05,800 --> 02:09:07,360 contrarian. The reason when you said you 2439 02:09:07,360 --> 02:09:09,200 wanted to play Kelsey, I was thinking coming off Andrew's. 2440 02:09:09,200 --> 02:09:11,880 I do think part of Andrew's case is that he wouldn't have to beat 2441 02:09:11,880 --> 02:09:14,880 Henry straight up. Yeah. 2442 02:09:15,760 --> 02:09:19,640 If he was just feeling the. Chinese get get Peta's original 2443 02:09:19,640 --> 02:09:26,760 pick back then. Wow, let's fade, let's fade, KC 2444 02:09:27,080 --> 02:09:28,480 said. It's a $35 entry. 2445 02:09:28,480 --> 02:09:28,920 Let's have. Some. 2446 02:09:30,280 --> 02:09:33,760 I I kind of like though, I mean, you're, you're starting to play 2447 02:09:33,760 --> 02:09:39,680 a specific bracket, but it's not, you know, KC is going to be 2448 02:09:39,680 --> 02:09:50,720 what, like 25% to lose if they play the Chargers maybe. 2449 02:09:50,720 --> 02:09:52,360 Maybe more like, maybe a little more. 2450 02:09:52,360 --> 02:09:55,120 If they play Houston, it's not crazy. 2451 02:09:57,320 --> 02:09:59,920 All right, we got kicker and defense to wrap up here. 2452 02:10:01,480 --> 02:10:03,400 Who's that? I'll go Bucker just to get us 2453 02:10:03,400 --> 02:10:09,960 the the maybe they win one game and he's OK and two, what do you 2454 02:10:09,960 --> 02:10:13,160 put there? I was thinking that because 2455 02:10:13,520 --> 02:10:14,360 you're playing. I kind of like. 2456 02:10:14,360 --> 02:10:19,200 Bucker there, OK. Then I'll do Washington DSTI 2457 02:10:19,200 --> 02:10:21,440 think you're playing Evans, you're playing pass attempts 2458 02:10:21,440 --> 02:10:23,120 against, you're playing a little bit of a shootout. 2459 02:10:23,120 --> 02:10:26,360 But we didn't necessarily play a Washington player, but some 2460 02:10:26,360 --> 02:10:30,840 potential for Baker Saxon. A note on the defensive scoring 2461 02:10:30,840 --> 02:10:32,960 for people kind of coming over from underdogs stuff. 2462 02:10:33,400 --> 02:10:35,160 You want pass attempts against it. 2463 02:10:35,440 --> 02:10:39,320 It's not like a scoring system where like getting like a low 2464 02:10:39,320 --> 02:10:43,360 scoring don't don't score many points on them that doesn't do 2465 02:10:43,360 --> 02:10:45,120 shit for you. You need like sacks and 2466 02:10:45,120 --> 02:10:49,480 interceptions and pick 6 like it's you actually really want 2467 02:10:50,120 --> 02:10:53,720 pass attempts against. I think after 10 points allowed 2468 02:10:53,720 --> 02:10:57,680 it literally doesn't matter. Yeah, it's something insane. 2469 02:10:58,160 --> 02:10:59,320 Yeah, you'd. Have to. 2470 02:10:59,920 --> 02:11:03,520 I'm glad we built the team though because you just it's you 2471 02:11:03,520 --> 02:11:07,320 forget every year like how quickly it becomes pretty 2472 02:11:07,320 --> 02:11:09,600 contrarian without even doing anything that crazy. 2473 02:11:10,080 --> 02:11:11,680 Yeah. Yeah, and the other thing you 2474 02:11:11,680 --> 02:11:14,560 realize from our stuff too is like how easy it is to get 2475 02:11:14,560 --> 02:11:16,920 funneled to the same fates, you know? 2476 02:11:17,280 --> 02:11:21,560 Over and over again. Yeah, so that'll be, that's a 2477 02:11:21,560 --> 02:11:25,160 note for us. All right, Fun show that did 2478 02:11:25,160 --> 02:11:29,240 most of the the promo stuff there a few minutes ago. 2479 02:11:29,240 --> 02:11:33,520 We will see you guys on on Thursday night for our next show 2480 02:11:33,520 --> 02:11:37,120 with FFCFFPC Playoff Week. Hop in the discord, grab those 2481 02:11:37,120 --> 02:11:39,920 ownership projections, and we'll see you guys then. 2482 02:11:39,920 --> 02:11:40,480 Peace.