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Week 2 is here. 
We have officially overreacted 

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and under reacted from Week 1, 
but tonight we have a public 

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service announcement. 
If you or your loved ones 

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basketball bags have been harmed
by garbage quarterback play, the

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law firm of Levis, Watson, Young
and Williams may be willing to 

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serve you. 
You may be entitled to 

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compensation. 
This is stat chasing Pat fryer 

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Helmo. 
Anita Handjob. 

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Fix your sight, Jamar. 
Alpha. 

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Play Chase. 
You can't handle the heat. 

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It looks like we're finally at 
this point. 

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You're right, I botched a cold 
open. 

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Draco it was. 
You had it. 

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You had it going so good as 
well. 

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You started so good. 
I know and. 

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Then you went into and that they
may be willing to service you. 

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I was trying. 
To think like was like, what is?

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What is the slot? 
You had the man you had, you had

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the right lines. 
You just you switched them up. 

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The the play call was great. 
The execution was poor though, 

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So what can you do? 
What can you do? 

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Speaking of per execution, I I 
don't have the charts pulled up.

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That's OK. 
We can we can vamp while you 

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pull up the charts. 
Definitely some cool stuff. 

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I was, I was going through them 
as I was putting them together 

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today and there were some things
where I feel like we're starting

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to see maybe like a trend 
emerging as like, you know, the 

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the first little green leaf 
poking through the soil. 

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It's it's butting up and there 
are also some things where it's 

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probably too early to tell yet. 
And then most importantly, and I

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really want to make sure we we 
provide this kind of context 

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tonight, there were things where
I think that the data might be 

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lying to us if we're not looking
at it in the context of what 

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actually happened in the games. 
So definitely want to keep that 

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in mind tonight. 
That's why that's why you watch 

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all the games now. 
I honestly, I'm really paranoid 

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about sound quality at this 
evening because yesterday was 

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so, so bad. 
So I'm going to need some 

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affirmation or or or not and 
that I sound better this week 

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while while we try here. 
You sound great to me, but yeah 

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we'll we'll see if the chat can 
confirm or deny. 

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Well, ship chasing, OK, OK, I'm 
glad to hear it. 

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So as we introduced our new 
chart last week, we were 

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combining kind of volume with 
efficiency here. 

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On the horizontal axis, we've 
got expected points from 

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passing. 
And then on the vertical axis, 

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we've got adjusted yards per 
attempt, which is our kind of an

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efficiency metric. 
And then the size of the bubble 

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is and that that corresponds to 
rushing yards per game because 

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obviously quarterback rushing 
very important. 

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And So what, what what, what? 
What kind of interested you suck

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this week. 
Well, I wanted to start with 

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some of the outliers. 
The first one is Goff who is 

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just, you know, a huge outlier 
with his expected fantasy points

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from passing. 
Just a a ton of volume really. 

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I think this is mostly due to 
game script. 

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They were, you know, behind for 
a lot of the game against Tampa 

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Bay and forced to pass and they 
passed a a good amount in their 

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first game too against the Rams.
And they went into overtime too.

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So you had the additional play 
volume there as well. 

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And yes, when you got into 
overtime it was mostly if not 

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all run. 
I can't remember, was it all run

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plays in overtime when they 
closed that off against the 

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Rams? 
I I did not watch that, but I 

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didn't. 
I do remember looking at one of 

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the outputs for for the box 
score at the end or to play by 

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play and it was just run run 
run. 

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Yeah, yeah, I but anyway, I, I 
do think that this is something 

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where we can expect it to 
regress. 

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I don't think Goff is going to 
have this amount of volume every

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week. 
That being said, I still think 

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he'll be above average. 
This is a good offense. 

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Yeah. 
So I had a couple of notes here.

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And so they're at a 61% pass 
rate, 45 dropbacks a game and 

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that's still -5% pass rate over 
expected. 

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So like like you said, it is 
the, it is the game script 

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causing the pass. 
And then I think it is a common 

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trend where when a quarterback 
is not showing efficiently, that

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leads to more volume because 
when you don't throw 

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efficiently, that's how we get 
behind. 

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And then I do note that in terms
of like the per efficiency, 

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they're somehow they're like 
they're -2 touchdowns under 

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expected per game. 
So in each game, if, if you're 

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just looking at a neutral 
efficiency, Purdy should have 

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had two more touchdowns. 
And so to me, that kind of 

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suggests it's like a, you're 
talking, you're kind of looking 

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like at a regression candidate 
in both ways. 

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His, his points should go up or 
say his efficiency should go up.

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The volume should, could come 
down. 

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And I, I think that should lead 
actually to net higher scoring. 

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And then I, I, I, I also wonder,
I know this is not the tight end

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section, but I also wonder if if
maybe they get LaPorte and more 

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involved because he was a a key 
touchdown scorer for them last 

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year. 
Yeah, I I certainly think that 

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makes sense. 
Some interesting stuff to go 

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over when we get to La Porta, 
but won't won't spill the beans 

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on that just yet. 
The other outlier that I wanted 

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to look at was Derek Carr, the 
most efficient quarterback in 

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the league by far. 
A big part of this is being 

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driven by the the two Rashid 
Shahid deep bomb plays, right? 

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He's got an extremely high 
touchdown rate because what's 

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happened in both of the games is
the Saints got out to a lead and

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then they just didn't have to 
throw any more. 

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And this last week against the 
Cowboys, they were able to score

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at will and Kamara put 4 
touchdowns in. 

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And so, you know, Carr didn't 
have to throw a ton. 

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And so you end up with this 
really low volume, which is why 

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he's, you know, on the left side
of the chart, he's below average

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for his expected fantasy points 
for passing. 

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But then you end up with this 
hyper efficiency because he 

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scored touchdowns, They got up, 
they stopped throwing. 

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Yeah. 
And one thing that they're 

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they're -10 so they're 10% under
their expected pass rate. 

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So even though Gamescript has 
LED them against passing, 

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they've actually been passing 
less than kind of expected. 

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And then I also sort of wonder 
with that kind of low volume 

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and, and drop back, I, I saw 
some note from one of the kind 

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of ball watchers that one of the
things that Kubiak is doing is 

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he's avoiding those kind of true
drop backs where he's, he's 

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essentially, he's not making a 
car have to work very hard. 

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And so I, I, I know in in your 
note you'd sort of said maybe 

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the Eagles will will be able to 
make a car work after the work 

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car have to work a little 
harder. 

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Yeah, I think this is gonna be a
really interesting game this 

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week where we just are coming 
off a Monday night game where we

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saw the Eagles really fail to 
get any kind of pressure on the 

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Falcons. 
Now that might have something to

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do with the fact that the Eagles
were respecting the run so much 

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from Dijon because the Falcons 
were just absolutely feeding him

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and a lot of the offense was 
going through him. 

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But the Eagles were failing to 
get pressure on on Kurt Cousins.

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And so I know that the Saints 
have or supposed to have a worse

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offensive line. 
I haven't I haven't checked 

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their pass blocking rating, but 
I wonder if it's, you know, it's

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such small sample they haven't 
been throwing very much that it 

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might there might not be a ton 
of signal there. 

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But I think it's going to be a 
good test against the Eagles. 

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And if you ask me to divine 
what's going to happen for, for 

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Derek Carr and where he'll kind 
of move on this chart, I, I 

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think it's almost a given that 
his efficiency has to come down.

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The adjusted yards per attempt 
can't stay this high really. 

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I mean, unless they're just 
gonna keep blowing teams out 

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over and over. 
And I I don't think that's the 

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case. 
Right, 40% pass rate and keep 

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completing bombs as Shahid that 
that that that'll boost the Aya 

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pretty good. 
So just I, I actually, I've, 

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I've the, the Saints, their, 
their pass block win rate is 

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66%, which is 8 highest in the 
league. 

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And I do think that's probably a
lot to do. 

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A lot of that has to do with 
them avoiding those true drop 

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backs. 
We're going to have to do 5 and 

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seven step drops and it's a lot 
quicker stuff. 

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And but we will, we will 
definitely have to see against 

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Seagulls. 
Yeah, I I mean, don't don't get 

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me wrong, I'm not not here poo 
pooing Derek Carr. 

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I think he's he is in. 
We talk about these offenses 

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that are, you know, the haves 
versus the have nots. 

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The Saints all of a sudden have 
become a have from a standpoint,

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you know, despite Dennis Allen's
best efforts, Dennis Allen is 

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getting absolutely bailed out 
here and keeping a job that he 

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probably has no business keeping
but is. 

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The the same the same should 
hire Kubiak at The way things 

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are going, they should hire him 
as the head coach next year 

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rather than have Kubiak leave to
be head coach somewhere else and

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then keep Dennis Allen. 
I I did that. 

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I mean, I, I actually expect 
that to be like on the current 

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trend, I expect that that to be 
what happens. 

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And one, one thing though, about
the car, like it really is on 

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Kubiak, it really, I think we 
really do have to see them in a 

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game where their back gets 
against the wall. 

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And like we, we, it's, it's 
clearly bullish that they've 

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like absolutely body bagged 2 
teams like that does that 

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doesn't just happen by 
accidents. 

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And but I do think it'll be 
interesting to see how they 

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react in games where actually 
you do have to pass now to get 

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back into this. 
Yeah, if they are you willing 

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to, are you willing to like 
crown the Ants as one of these, 

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you know, put them in the 
category of the 49ers, the Rams,

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the Vikings, the Dolphins. 
If they take it to the Eagles 

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this next week, if they're able 
to go out and continue to look 

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really efficient on offense and 
beat the Eagles, do you think 

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00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:09,720
it's fair to put them in that 
category? 

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It's hard it it if they do it to
the Eagles too, it will be 

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really hard not to. 
I don't I don't think the eagles

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impressed. 
I guess we just saw them last 

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night and we we were pretty wary
on the Falcons and then they the

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Falcons are able to look pretty 
good. 

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That that would be my one note, 
like maybe the Eagles defense 

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isn't that good this year 
either. 

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And but if they if they just 
body back three teams in a row, 

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it that would be a very like 
strong, strong sign at least. 

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00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:43,240
Yeah, another one that I thought
was interesting. 

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Another, you know, he he's still
looking a little bit like an 

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00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:49,080
outlier, but he's more in line 
with the rest of the 

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00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:53,760
quarterbacks is Kyler Murray, 
who had an incredible week to 

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fighting Marvin Harrison for 
some spectacular plays. 

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00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:02,120
If you if you didn't watch that 
game, those highlights are worth

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00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:05,600
looking up. 
They were pretty fun and also. 

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00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:08,520
If you're watching this podcast 
and you somehow didn't see the 

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00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:10,800
Mervyn Harrison touchdowns, you 
should. 

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00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:14,280
Yeah, yeah. 
I don't know who I'm talking to 

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00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:16,960
here. 
Watch the Martin Harrison 

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00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:18,800
touchdowns in our audience right
now. 

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The other thing, the thing you 
may have missed though, if you 

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00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:24,560
weren't watching the whole game,
Kyler looked really good running

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00:12:24,560 --> 00:12:26,520
the ball. 
He he had a couple scrambles. 

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00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:29,000
He had one that was a really 
long scramble. 

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00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:33,320
I'm not sure exactly how many 
yards it was, but it was he 

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00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:36,480
looked kind of like vintage 
Kyler Murray and not just the 

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00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:39,560
extending the play behind the 
line of scrimmage, but really 

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making the defense pay and and 
punishing them with a big 

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00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:46,520
explosive run downfield. 
Yeah, that, that ad that's 

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00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:49,560
pretty fun. 
I, yeah, I, I think it's, it's 

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pretty straightforward from the 
data here. 

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00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:55,560
And you're looking at 58 rush 
yards a game, you're looking at 

216
00:12:55,560 --> 00:13:01,240
9.8 adjusted yards per 10th. 
And that, that that's higher 

217
00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:04,800
than the than the per Oh yeah, 
that's what we, what we're 

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00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:08,040
showing here. 
And 9.8 adjusted yards per 10th.

219
00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:12,400
So you're getting efficiency 
from the, from him trolling. 

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00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:16,680
You're getting efficiency from 
him running and he's playing 

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00:13:16,680 --> 00:13:21,760
well and I, I, I, I, I think 
that's it. 

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00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:25,400
That's pretty straightforward. 
Here's a Here's a fun question. 

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00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:29,200
If you had to pick right now, 
rest of season, do you want 

224
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Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson? 
Oh my God that feels like a real

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00:13:34,680 --> 00:13:36,440
Week 2 gotcha question, wasn't 
it? 

226
00:13:37,560 --> 00:13:39,200
Where? 
I think it's I think it's 

227
00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:42,400
legitimate though, Kyler like. 
They weren't going that far 

228
00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:44,320
apart. 
And think about how we framed 

229
00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:46,640
Kyler, you know, just three 
seasons ago. 

230
00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:49,840
When what was that? 
The season when he and Jalen 

231
00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,120
Hurts were going, you know, 
back-to-back like in the 5th, 

232
00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:54,400
6th round, right? 
Right. 

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00:13:55,320 --> 00:14:01,840
And I don't know. 
So what's tough about that is 

234
00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:08,520
so, and Lamar did play Kansas 
City and then I guess it the the

235
00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:11,240
Raiders always have one of those
defenses where they always like 

236
00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:12,880
play teams tough. 
They they have that. 

237
00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:15,840
They have Max Crosby who always 
causes teams havoc. 

238
00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:19,760
So I want to, I want to give the
Ravens a little bit of credit 

239
00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:21,400
for having played tough 
defenses. 

240
00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:26,960
And then remember, Kyler has 
paid played, he played the Bills

241
00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:29,640
as well. 
And and so you have to give him 

242
00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:35,440
some credit there. 
And I don't know, I, I think 

243
00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:40,920
that's a lot closer. 
I think probably you probably 

244
00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:45,800
just give it you probably slight
tilt Kyler now and just because 

245
00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:48,320
they have been efficient 
throwing the ball and you kind 

246
00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:52,040
of believe in their past 
catching targets a little bit 

247
00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:54,720
more now. 
But that that one does feel like

248
00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:59,520
something where like the like 
these guys could be very, very 

249
00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:02,800
close by the end of the year. 
Yeah, I, I think it's pretty 

250
00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:06,200
close. 
The other point very slightly in

251
00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:10,080
Kyler's favor is I think it's 
reasonable to say, you know, 

252
00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:13,400
just still, we've got a, a 
little bit of the mystery box 

253
00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:16,120
remaining with Marvin Harrison 
where we have the signal from 

254
00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:20,720
one game where, OK, this guy 
looks very good, but it's still,

255
00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:23,320
it's such a small sample. 
We really don't know exactly 

256
00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:26,240
what he is in the league yet. 
We have more of an idea of what 

257
00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:29,560
Zay Flowers in it is and Zay 
Flowers is very good. 

258
00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:33,600
But I think it's reasonable to 
say that Marvin Harrison's like 

259
00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:36,440
true ceiling, like above 90th 
percentile outcome. 

260
00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:40,960
He's lapping Zay flowers, you 
know, like Zay is good, but he's

261
00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:43,880
not he's not going to get to the
Marvin Harrison like true 

262
00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:46,160
ceiling outcome. 
So I think you get a point in 

263
00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:49,720
the Kyler column there and then 
also from tight end and we'll 

264
00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:51,600
we'll look at this when we get 
to the tight end charts. 

265
00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:55,520
But I think it's reasonable to 
to pass the torch to Trey 

266
00:15:55,520 --> 00:16:01,280
McBride as you know, maybe the 
tight end one in fantasy, if not

267
00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:03,880
the tight end 2. 
And and we'll talk about who 

268
00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:07,200
could be tight end one later. 
Spoiler alert, who was the guy 

269
00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:16,880
on the thumbnail for this show? 
Yeah, yeah, I, yeah, I, I, I 

270
00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:23,400
agree with that moving. 
In a more disappointing 

271
00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:26,640
direction on the chart guys that
we're we're kind of a little 

272
00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:29,160
worried about now, Trevor 
Lawrence. 

273
00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:33,800
I mean, you can use the excuse 
that it was rainy and the Browns

274
00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:38,520
have a good defense, but man. 
And I mean, I know they they 

275
00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:40,280
were missing Evan Ingram too. 
He had that. 

276
00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:44,320
It's the same thing every year 
with this guy where it's like, 

277
00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:47,120
like some of his advanced stuff 
looks really good. 

278
00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:51,520
And then you say, Oh, well, his 
receivers had a 23% drop rate 

279
00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:54,360
and like, that's it. 
That's an outlier that that's 

280
00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:56,120
going to make anyone's stats 
look bad. 

281
00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:59,840
But I feel like we're hearing 
that every year with Trevor 

282
00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:02,160
Lawrence, like, oh, his 
receivers just dropped the ball.

283
00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:07,440
And, and, and maybe like that 
makes me think that maybe how do

284
00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:10,000
I say this? 
Maybe we are looking at somebody

285
00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:14,359
who's like in a bunch average QB
who's just like destined to a 

286
00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:19,319
career of like per stats because
the team around them is bad. 

287
00:17:20,839 --> 00:17:24,760
And but that in fantasy football
that doesn't matter. 

288
00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:31,760
Like tell me, tell me the part 
to where Trevor Lawrence is 

289
00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:37,200
receiving weapons actually be 
becoming much better and and 

290
00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:38,920
then him him actually scoring 
well. 

291
00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:43,120
Yeah, I mean to to play devil's 
advocate here, I would say 

292
00:17:43,120 --> 00:17:46,400
you've got a lot of runway for 
Brian Thomas junior to yes. 

293
00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:50,640
Pretty good, that's the answer. 
That's that's like the strongest

294
00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,400
answer, right. 
And then I'm not I'm not willing

295
00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:56,560
to say like it's all the fault 
of the weapons. 

296
00:17:56,560 --> 00:18:00,320
I I think a, a big part of this 
could definitely be, you know, 

297
00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:03,440
the coaching and the play 
calling Like it, it hasn't been 

298
00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:06,720
great since, you know, Doug 
Peterson press Taylor took over 

299
00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:09,800
there. 
You know, they they've been able

300
00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:13,840
to put some stuff together for 
stretches, but never anything 

301
00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,920
super sustained where Trevor's 
been, you know, at the top of 

302
00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:21,560
the quarterbacks for fantasy 
performers or, or real life stat

303
00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:25,840
accumulators. 
So yeah, he's just, to me, it's 

304
00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:28,720
just looking like he's kind of a
middle of the pack guy. 

305
00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:32,360
Right. 
So like Trevor Lawrence or Brock

306
00:18:32,360 --> 00:18:37,040
Purdy, given all the injuries 
the 49ers have to their weapons 

307
00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:40,320
rest of season. 
That that, that, that one there 

308
00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:47,800
feels pretty close, I think. 
I do think Purdy is probably 

309
00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:52,440
another one who's kind of a 
regression candidate and let me,

310
00:18:53,120 --> 00:18:57,680
or at least that's what I don't,
I don't note that he he might be

311
00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:01,320
a regression candidate. 
Let me. 

312
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:04,400
Oh yeah. 
Because he's another one where 

313
00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:09,160
he's been under expectation on 
touchdowns and, and and maybe 

314
00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:10,360
that's, that's some of our 
youth. 

315
00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:14,320
Maybe, yeah, who who knows what 
that's related to, But he's 

316
00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:17,920
somebody who could score a 
little bit higher if he becomes 

317
00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:20,120
positive efficiency on 
touchdowns. 

318
00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:26,680
And I I like Purdy's a heart. 
He's he's such a hard one to 

319
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:31,360
project because if the 40 when 
the 49ers get behind, normally 

320
00:19:31,360 --> 00:19:35,440
they trail with good efficiency 
and they do put a points and I 

321
00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:37,640
guess that's, that's what we 
should expect going forward. 

322
00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,840
Where's Trevor Lawrence is like 
that's that's that feels a 

323
00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:48,040
little bit more like a quagmire 
where online, not great 

324
00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:52,160
receivers dropping passes and 
and and it's not like he's some 

325
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:58,760
special talent eater like I'm 
I'm I'd say I'm definitely not 

326
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:00,240
feeling great about Trevor 
Lawrence. 

327
00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:04,360
Yeah, I mean, in that direct 1 
to one comparison between 

328
00:20:04,360 --> 00:20:08,200
Lawrence and Purdy, I, I think, 
you know, this is something 

329
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:11,240
where if you can figure out like
these big macro trends for 

330
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:15,320
fantasy and just apply them, I, 
I feel like it can go a long 

331
00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:18,120
way. 
And so one of the the things 

332
00:20:18,120 --> 00:20:21,600
that I first noticed in my my 
fledgling fantasy career many 

333
00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:24,800
years ago was, oh, if I just pay
attention to who the really good

334
00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:27,800
offensive lines are and draft 
the running backs behind the 

335
00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:31,760
best offensive lines, that's a 
really easy way to get good 

336
00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:34,760
running back production, right. 
And now I feel like the easy 

337
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:36,640
like that super. 
It's way too simple. 

338
00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:38,400
This sounds like it shouldn't 
work. 

339
00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:42,760
It it shouldn't be this easy. 
Cheat code is if you just have a

340
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:46,120
quarterback that's in one of 
these like Shanahan style scam 

341
00:20:46,120 --> 00:20:50,120
systems where the offense is 
designed exceptionally well and 

342
00:20:50,120 --> 00:20:53,160
they give the quarterback lots 
of easy looks like the Saints, 

343
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,160
like the Vikings, like the 
Dolphins. 

344
00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:59,440
You know, you're just gonna 
those quarterbacks are going to 

345
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:03,240
produce efficiently because the 
offense is well designed. 

346
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:07,520
They're you're simply playing, 
you're playing with a stack deck

347
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:12,160
against, you know these. 
Right, right. 

348
00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:15,800
And, and it certainly seems like
Trevor Lawrence's offense, the 

349
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:20,200
Doug Peterson 1. 
And I, I remember Sean Siegel 

350
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,720
said that Doug Peterson might 
just be done the way to like a 

351
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:27,800
player is done, that maybe the 
game has evolved beyond his 

352
00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:32,040
capabilities of being effective.
Yeah, I mean, it's certainly 

353
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,920
looking like Shane Seiken may 
have been the brains behind the 

354
00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:38,800
operation when they were having 
their run in Philly. 

355
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:40,000
Success. 
They won the Super. 

356
00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:47,280
Yeah, let's see. 
Last note I had on QB charts is 

357
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:52,960
this group, the the law firm of 
bad QBs, if you will, this Levis

358
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:56,120
Watson, Williams and Young all 
down at the bottom of the chart 

359
00:21:56,120 --> 00:21:59,280
here. 
Deshaun Watson barely eeking 

360
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:04,720
ahead of, you know, just above 
average his his 13 expected 

361
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,000
fantasy points for passing or 
thereabouts. 

362
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,920
Big part of that just came from 
the extreme volume that I mean, 

363
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:13,960
that's that's what expected 
fantasy points is it's a volume 

364
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:16,640
measure. 
But the Browns are throwing the 

365
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:18,600
ball a lot. 
They're not doing so 

366
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:21,160
particularly successfully, but 
they are trying. 

367
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:28,600
But I mean, even even with that,
I, I couldn't imagine starting 

368
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:33,080
any of these guys like none of 
these are are viable starters in

369
00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:37,400
a managed league. 
Caleb actually showed some signs

370
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:41,720
of life this week. 
Like it looks like he the player

371
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:45,840
is not a total, you know, and I 
I didn't think he was a total 

372
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:49,560
bust following week 1. 
I I just thought that the team, 

373
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:51,120
the coach. 
We saw some positive signs. 

374
00:22:51,120 --> 00:22:54,280
We saw some positive plays where
it was turned down. 

375
00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:56,920
He had to do something and he 
pulled something out. 

376
00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:59,400
Right. 
And he was doing more. 

377
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:03,720
He was doing less of the, you 
know, Caleb the magician stuff 

378
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:07,120
that made people fall in love 
with him when he was at USC. 

379
00:23:07,120 --> 00:23:08,840
Like, oh, I'm going to extend 
the play. 

380
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,480
Oh, off platform. 
Oh my God, a broken play, huge 

381
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,160
touchdown. 
Like he was doing less of that 

382
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:17,520
trying to make magic happen and 
more of like the I'm going to 

383
00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:19,720
drive the bus. 
I'm operating the offense. 

384
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:22,040
I'm going through my reads. 
I'm finding the open guy. 

385
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:24,720
I'm making the throws. 
And it wasn't like he was just 

386
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,840
making like easy throws. 
Either he had a couple really 

387
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:30,600
impressive throws too, or it's 
like, okay, that was like a lot 

388
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,800
of armed talent and he diagnosed
the covering and got to the 

389
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:36,440
right. 
Like I don't think Caleb is bad,

390
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:39,040
I think. 
It might that looks like a have 

391
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:40,400
not offense. 
Right. 

392
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:43,280
Yeah. 
The online isn't good, the play 

393
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:46,960
callings just really bad. 
Just really, really bad. 

394
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:50,840
What was it like 4045 pressures 
or something ridiculous like 

395
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:54,280
that on him like? 
Yeah, and and like you had stuff

396
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:58,560
like where it was they were 
running on early downs a lot 

397
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:01,960
when it wasn't working at all, 
sort of getting forced into 

398
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:05,920
these third and long situations.
When they did pass, it was like 

399
00:24:06,360 --> 00:24:10,680
screens and and design touches 
to these like fucking dust balls

400
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:15,080
and it's like you have DJ Murr. 
Why not do the design such as 

401
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:23,280
the DJ Murr this like I, I, I 
don't know, but I'm I'm I'm with

402
00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:26,840
you where it looks like there's 
that the talent that got them 

403
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:31,400
selected first overall is there.
And I guess we're probably 

404
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:35,280
getting some more rookie growing
pains than than maybe we would 

405
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:39,400
have wanted. 
And but bigger story probably is

406
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:41,280
per online play, per play 
calling. 

407
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:45,520
And you, you're going to have to
see that that stuff improved 

408
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:49,560
kind of dramatically to, to feel
better about the offense. 

409
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:52,560
Yeah. 
I mean, I think that if you're 

410
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,560
if you're the Bears, the best 
thing you can do is just clean 

411
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:58,320
house on your coaching staff 
right now. 

412
00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:02,120
Like you're at the start of this
extremely talented young 

413
00:25:02,120 --> 00:25:05,720
player's career. 
You have a ton of draft capital 

414
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:09,120
that you got to invest this year
in an elite wide receiver in 

415
00:25:09,120 --> 00:25:11,880
Roman Doones say, elite 
generational quarterback talent.

416
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:15,960
And Caleb Williams, you've got 
all these pieces, and I think 

417
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:20,600
it's such a mistake to just wait
at the season and say surely 

418
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:22,720
this tiger will change his 
stripes after. 

419
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:27,360
Like, you know what Eberfluse is
like you if you didn't know what

420
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:31,040
Aldrin was because I don't know,
like you didn't watch any of the

421
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:32,960
Seattle games like he was there 
like. 

422
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:38,680
But I just just to just to bring
it back, I guess the take away 

423
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:43,960
is this, this Bears offense 
becomes a shy away offense, 

424
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:46,120
right? 
Yeah, one 100%. 

425
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:50,320
Unfortunately, unfortunately 
become went from one we were 

426
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:55,160
kind of sneaky excited about to 
like really excited about to 

427
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:57,560
yeah, it it might be a stay 
away. 

428
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,560
And yeah, I think all of these 
are are stay aways here. 

429
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:07,400
The with Levis, like if you saw 
the the play where he does the 

430
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:11,200
he just freaked out and did like
the weird lateral when he was 

431
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:15,680
getting sacked and and LED to a 
fumble, which is just like 

432
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:19,720
terrible decision making. 
The only if you want a silver 

433
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:23,320
lining for the Titans, it's that
the whole show is Calvin Ridley.

434
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:29,120
And so maybe it's functional 
there for for him only. 

435
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,240
I mean, Tony Pollard's also 
getting a lot of work too. 

436
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:35,720
But like Levis is not not 
startable in any format. 

437
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:42,640
Unfortunately, he is not. 
We got we got a yeah, we got a 

438
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:46,120
couple of questions here. 
I I I like don't like just 

439
00:26:46,120 --> 00:26:50,160
walking by yeah, questions and 
we got one from it and we're 

440
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,080
going to go true, true them got 
one. 

441
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:54,560
Are we leaving the light on for 
Justin Herbert in fantasy? 

442
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:58,680
And I think you I think for 
Herbert, you need like one of 

443
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:02,320
those like negative game strip 
games and where they're 

444
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:04,840
trailing. 
This team does not want to pass 

445
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:08,760
the ball. 
They're at a 45% pass rate 

446
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:13,360
negative or 11% underexpected on
that. 

447
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:17,280
And then Herbert is real good. 
We know he's really good, but 

448
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:21,440
his his receiving the receiving 
around them is not. 

449
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:26,440
So that that makes it pretty 
tend to get strong efficiency 

450
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:30,640
there. 
So I think I think he's he like 

451
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:34,040
he was going so cheap in 
basketball that like a lot of 

452
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:36,040
the stuff that I'm saying that 
was kind of priced in. 

453
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:41,640
So I don't think you need to 
feel bad and but in like a yeah,

454
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:45,000
a twelve person or 12 team one 
QB league. 

455
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:49,520
I, I I really don't see any 
reason to to start Herbert and 

456
00:27:50,120 --> 00:27:53,960
and would be like even in in 
kind of daily stuff would I 

457
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:55,440
think it would be kind of 
questionable. 

458
00:27:55,840 --> 00:28:01,640
Like you'd really need the stars
to align to consider to make a 

459
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:06,080
strong consideration forever. 
Yeah, agree 100% with your 

460
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:12,520
assessment there. 
And then should I drop that? 

461
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:14,320
Should I? 
This is an interesting one. 

462
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:18,160
Should I drop fields for Sam 
Darnold? 

463
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:22,800
Yeah, I would. 
Yeah, I think so. 

464
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:29,800
So, yeah. 
And we kind of seem the fields 

465
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:33,040
show with the Steelers. 
So like Fort, fortunately, 

466
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:36,320
they're, they're not making him 
do anything that's going to get 

467
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:40,080
himself benched. 
Unfortunately, that kind of 

468
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:43,640
usage leads to 8 expected 
fantasy points from from 

469
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:46,240
passing. 
And, and so that, that, that 

470
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:51,920
that understates his, his, his 
actual, his volume a little bit 

471
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:55,280
because you do have the rushing 
stuff and then you can make the 

472
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:58,480
case that a lot of his big 
players got pulled, pulled back 

473
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,800
from penalties. 
So like maybe it could have been

474
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:10,920
a 2022 point game for Fields. 
But I, I, I think, I think you 

475
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:15,400
can kind of look elsewhere. 
I'm I'm dropping fields this 

476
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:19,600
week in FFPC managed. 
You know, you know, what is the 

477
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,120
funniest timeline? 
I mean, it's the timeline that 

478
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:27,280
we're living in, but Justin 
Fields is very well the absolute

479
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:30,600
best pick at quarterback you 
could make in the Eliminator, 

480
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:32,760
provided that he starts the 
whole season. 

481
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:35,480
His floor is exceptional. 
He's averaging 42 rush yards a 

482
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:37,680
game. 
He has a little bit of ceiling, 

483
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:41,240
like if if those big plays don't
get called back or he he runs a 

484
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:44,040
little hot and gets a touchdown 
or the Steelers end up behind, 

485
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:47,560
like that's how you access the 
ceiling and the floor is good. 

486
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:51,800
Like and he was a 18th round 
pick and he like it's so funny. 

487
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:55,760
No one if you'd asked people 
going into the season, you know,

488
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:58,320
is just. 
The old complete opposite of 

489
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:00,480
what we expected. 
It's like he's not going to 

490
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,920
start many games, but when he 
does, oh baby. 

491
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:07,000
Turns out he's an eliminator 
aspect. 

492
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,040
And then this one isn't much of 
a question. 

493
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,760
It's more of a statement. 
Is Bone Nicks finished or is he 

494
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:16,120
done? 
Yeah, yeah. 

495
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:21,120
Looking pretty rough. 
Yeah, he, I mean, he just looks 

496
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:22,800
like he's drowning, man. 
It's not. 

497
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:27,240
I mean, unless you've got a. 
Unless you're a masochist like 

498
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,160
it's not. 
Or you're or you're his mutter 

499
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:32,880
missus Nicks. 
You can still play but bow in 

500
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:34,320
fantasy. 
Anybody else? 

501
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:38,520
Yeah, I mean, Missus Nicks, you 
absolutely cherish, you know, 

502
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:41,560
the years that your son has in 
the league and he seems like a 

503
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:45,280
super nice young man. 
And to be fair to him, one of 

504
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,800
the best quarterbacks in the 
world, just not one of the 32 

505
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:53,160
best. 
Right, Unfortunately, I I I 

506
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:56,080
mean, maybe this is a future 
dynasty question, not really 

507
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:59,400
when the scope here, but I do 
wonder how much is Sean Payton 

508
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:05,600
the GM Sean Payton the coach. 
But after making that excuse for

509
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:09,520
Bryce Young last year and and 
seeing how it's paid off, not 

510
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:12,080
not in a rush to make that for 
Bonex here. 

511
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:16,400
I mean, especially if Peyton is 
still coaching next season, 

512
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:21,760
which you have to assume that he
the the Broncos are in such a 

513
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:25,080
terrible spot. 
I mean, their roster is entirely

514
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:28,520
devoid of talent and they're 
stuck with Sean Peyton, who 

515
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:31,800
looks like a guy that just 
stepped out of like the cryo 

516
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,440
freezer. 
You know, he's just stuck in the

517
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:38,880
past and does not show any signs
of being willing to change. 

518
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:43,760
So pour one out for if you know 
any Broncos fans you know, just 

519
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:48,600
give them a hug. 
Yeah, for sure. 

520
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:52,480
So should we move on here? 
Yeah, I think, I think that 

521
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:54,800
about covers it on the 
quarterback chart here. 

522
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:59,680
OK. 
And excuse me while I zoom out a

523
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:01,720
little bit here. 
There we go. 

524
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:05,680
And so this is our running back 
Snapse and usage chart. 

525
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:10,440
So with, with, with running back
being such a volume driven 

526
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:14,400
position, obviously we focus in 
on those rush attempts. 

527
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:19,040
And then I, I feel like I, I try
to explain this every week. 

528
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:24,120
We want routes, we want to look 
at routes over targets because 

529
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:29,800
in the vast majority of cases, a
running back getting a target is

530
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,800
more often than not a check down
or an accident in the play. 

531
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:37,640
That wasn't the intention and so
it's hard to kind of pin that in

532
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:41,240
on the skill of the running back
with with few exceptions, CMC 

533
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:43,760
and not playing. 
But he is one of the the few 

534
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:47,120
exceptions. 
And so we we basically want the 

535
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:51,200
guy who's on the field for when 
they can receive the check down 

536
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:54,680
and we look at a pass block as 
well. 

537
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:58,360
It's not fantasy useful, but or 
it's not the fan. 

538
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:02,040
The pass block in itself doesn't
score points, but it's helpful 

539
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:07,240
context to know who is being 
trusted to pass block for the 

540
00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:14,080
the offenses main main player 
and then one block we're we're 

541
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,440
building at the complete picture
for Heather on the field. 

542
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:22,200
But really, who cares? 
Yeah, man, the the first one 

543
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:25,960
that stood out to me now that 
we've got, you know, double the 

544
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:29,800
sample size that we had last 
week is Ramondre Stevenson's 

545
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,760
role is incredible. 
I mean, for where he was going 

546
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:36,440
in drafts like this guy is 
looking like the smash of all 

547
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:38,680
smashes. 
And it doesn't even seem to 

548
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,880
matter that the Patriots are not
particularly fun offensively and

549
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:43,440
they're not scoring lots of 
touchdowns. 

550
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:47,760
He is just getting there through
sheer C volume. 

551
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:51,560
And and then 11, interesting 
piece as well. 

552
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:55,840
So obviously the efficiency 
hasn't been great, but they do 

553
00:33:55,840 --> 00:34:02,080
seem to have played some some 
tough run defenses. 

554
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:08,880
And so hopefully for them that 
if they can get some softer 

555
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:14,320
defenses, then maybe the maybe 
the the what you call it, maybe 

556
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:15,960
the efficiency can be a little 
bit better. 

557
00:34:17,159 --> 00:34:19,719
Yeah, just a little note for 
this week. 

558
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,560
They are the Thursday night game
playing against The Jets. 

559
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:27,159
Every one of the Patriots 
offensive lineman is listed with

560
00:34:27,159 --> 00:34:30,719
an injury on their most recent 
injury report from practice. 

561
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:36,840
And so it's it's looking like 
they might, gosh, I'm trying to 

562
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:38,920
remember who there. 
There's one of their offensive 

563
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:41,120
lineman has an injury that 
sounds a little bit more 

564
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:43,040
serious. 
And, you know, everyone else 

565
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:46,040
seems like kind of banged up, 
but there's one that's a 

566
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:48,600
slightly more serious injury. 
I'm wondering if that's going to

567
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:53,560
impact their ability to run the 
ball now they are against The 

568
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:55,960
Jets. 
I haven't looked at how good The

569
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:57,720
Jets. 
So you said, did you say that 

570
00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:01,920
the The Jets have a lot of 
online on the Patriots, the 

571
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:05,480
Patriots, Patriots, Yeah, and 
I'm looking at it right now. 

572
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:08,880
The Jets are one of the best 
teams and they're the 4th best 

573
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:14,080
team in the NFL and and run and 
run stuff right. 

574
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:16,840
Okay, yeah, so. 
Prefer. 

575
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:19,920
ESPN, Yeah. 
Might not be the week. 

576
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:21,920
Not this week, yeah. 
Probably. 

577
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:23,760
Maybe not this week. 
Don't want to be too 

578
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:25,640
deterministic, but probably not 
this week. 

579
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:30,440
Right. 
Let's see another so another 

580
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:35,880
role that, you know, I feel like
people were ready to to say it 

581
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,480
was Jover for this guy after 
week 1 when he had a really 

582
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:43,760
costly fumble, fumble into the 
end zone and his backup, the 

583
00:35:44,240 --> 00:35:47,920
previously much maligned tank 
Bigsby, you know, out out 

584
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:51,400
produced him on fewer carries as
far as total rush yards. 

585
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,960
But Travis ET NS role is still 
very strong. 

586
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:59,240
Now, granted, Bigsby did injure 
his shoulder this week. 

587
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:03,600
He did play after the shoulder 
injury, but he didn't get any 

588
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:05,520
offensive snaps after the 
shoulder injury. 

589
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:09,600
It was just a special team. 
So I'm gonna be curious to see 

590
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:13,360
what what that actually is. 
Is it just something minor? 

591
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:15,560
Is it gonna be something that 
actually impacts him? 

592
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:20,000
Will this affect Etns workload 
going forward for the positive? 

593
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:24,120
But just as a whole, Etns 
workload still looks very very 

594
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:27,800
good. 
The only, the only thing I 

595
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:33,480
wonder about ETN is I see, I 
I've seen him or I saw him go in

596
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:38,600
like the third round a lot. 
And on FFPCI, I'm, I'm sure he 

597
00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:43,080
was going later on on underdog 
and, but I think even with this,

598
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:47,920
even with this solid workload, 
I, I think that that was 

599
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:52,800
probably still an overpay. 
And but he's definitely he's 

600
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:55,960
definitely a running back where 
when he's going around the end 

601
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,080
of it, like I'm just trying to 
think of a way you can play them

602
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:02,960
is when he's going around the 
end of a draft in in in the 

603
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:05,760
dailies on underdog. 
Like he's definitely somebody 

604
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:09,680
where if you're going to try and
play a bounce back week for the 

605
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:13,160
Jags, Travis Etienne is probably
a pretty strong candidate for 

606
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:15,520
that. 
Yeah. 

607
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:18,640
The other thing is the Jags have
have struggled like they have 

608
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:20,880
not gotten a ton going 
offensively. 

609
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:23,760
So it would not surprise me in 
the slightest. 

610
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:26,080
You know, when when teams are 
struggling, they're just 

611
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:28,960
grasping at like, Oh my God, we 
got to get something to work. 

612
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:32,120
And, and I wouldn't be surprised
at all if they're just like, you

613
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:34,720
know what, let's just give the 
ball to this guy 20 times 

614
00:37:34,720 --> 00:37:36,480
because we've seen them do that 
in the past. 

615
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:39,920
Or they're like, just give it to
ETN a bunch of times. 

616
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:45,040
So I wouldn't be surprised at 
all with them struggling here. 

617
00:37:46,240 --> 00:37:48,400
They're going to want to change 
something up, see if they can 

618
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:50,560
get something going. 
Right, right, right. 

619
00:37:50,720 --> 00:37:54,200
That, yeah. 
And I think, but I think that 

620
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:56,440
that is definitely the way to 
try and play. 

621
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:57,720
Yeah. 
ETN. 

622
00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:01,840
Yeah, Yeah. 
When he's relatively cheap in 

623
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:04,520
whatever format it is that 
you're playing, be it, you know,

624
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:07,400
salary cap DFS, if he's, you 
know, priced down in a in a 

625
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:10,240
week, you know that the role is 
there where he's going to get 

626
00:38:10,240 --> 00:38:12,280
the touches. 
And so if you're you're getting 

627
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:15,360
to basically buy those touches 
for really cheap, that's good 

628
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:18,760
and same thing. 
And you know, draft style, the 

629
00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:21,600
battle royales, if he's going 
undrafted or going really cheap,

630
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:24,840
you know, the role is there, but
really in the in the battle 

631
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:28,240
royales, you know, even like the
the dog hole, the 12 man's, the 

632
00:38:28,240 --> 00:38:32,040
goal line stand too. 
There's a you can pretty much 

633
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:34,520
always get running back volume 
at the end of those. 

634
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:37,200
You know, you could have gotten 
Devin Singletary, He he was 

635
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:41,720
going undrafted. 
Most, you know, Brian Robinson, 

636
00:38:41,720 --> 00:38:44,840
like those guys were regularly 
available, you know, in the 

637
00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:50,000
sixth round of the 12 man draft.
So the the volume is is there in

638
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,280
spades if you want it, if you 
want it cheaply. 

639
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:58,280
Another guy who's getting the 
volume in spades but doing even 

640
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:02,320
less with it than Travis CTN is 
doing is DeAndre Swift, who's 

641
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:05,200
right above him on the chart, 
got a pretty good role. 

642
00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:09,400
I think the question that we 
have to ask ourselves here is. 

643
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:13,200
How long can he play like dog 
shit and still get the ball 

644
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:16,480
right? 
That's the question. 

645
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:19,520
Yeah, well, we'll put. 
And the Bears already are 

646
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:21,240
showing. 
This was one of the things where

647
00:39:21,240 --> 00:39:23,920
I I mentioned like, oh, we're 
starting to see some trends, you

648
00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:26,800
know, poke out of the dirt the 
first little leaves and sprouts 

649
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:29,840
coming out. 
The Bears coaching staff has 

650
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:33,440
started to realize, oh, we 
should not be giving this guy 

651
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:36,680
the ball as much because Khalil 
Herbert finally started to get 

652
00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:40,480
some work here in week two. 
Week 1, he got damn near 

653
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:42,720
nothing. 
Week two, we saw his role grow. 

654
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:46,560
You think that's a trend? 
Yeah, yeah. 

655
00:39:46,720 --> 00:39:52,800
And I think, I think we should 
expect and, and, and who knows 

656
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:56,960
on timing, like who knows how 
how stubborn and coaching staff 

657
00:39:56,960 --> 00:40:01,680
can be and, but I think it's a 
pretty fair expectation for 

658
00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:05,040
Swift to get phased out and it 
may happen suddenly. 

659
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:09,440
I I don't want to like I it's 
hard to be too confident on 

660
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:11,320
that. 
But he's playing badly. 

661
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:15,280
He's playing very, very badly 
and you see like stuff like his 

662
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:21,600
his his yardage underexpected is
he's way under expectation on 

663
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:25,480
FFP, sorry on PFF on next Gen. 
stats. 

664
00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:30,880
And then you see the the run 
block win weight rate is is 

665
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:32,680
actually pretty solid on their 
own line. 

666
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:36,560
So like their own line actually 
from a run blocking perspective 

667
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:39,680
actually might be decent, but 
he's just playing very poorly. 

668
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:46,600
So if it's it's tough to see 
Swift getting that much run and 

669
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:49,160
much longer. 
And definitely hopeful for the 

670
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:51,440
Kalua Herbert bags going 
forward. 

671
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:57,360
Yep, couldn't agree more. 
Man, this guy is exciting. 

672
00:40:57,400 --> 00:41:02,320
And and just as a reminder for 
how these charts work, you know,

673
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:04,760
this is aggregating the usage 
week over week. 

674
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:07,920
So right now we just have an 
average from week 1 and Week 2. 

675
00:41:08,240 --> 00:41:11,640
So guys who saw a major change 
in their role from week 1 to 

676
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:15,600
week two, you're not going to 
see that reflected, you know, as

677
00:41:15,720 --> 00:41:18,920
as much here if their role was 
way smaller week one, it's 

678
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:20,960
bigger week two. 
And the guy I'm thinking of 

679
00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:25,480
specifically here is Zach 
Charbonnet, who man, Zach 

680
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:30,040
Charbenet's price was very wrong
in best ball drafts because he 

681
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:33,800
what he got you in Week 1 when 
he was just the backup. 

682
00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:36,640
And granted, he he ran hot and 
got a touchdown, right? 

683
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:40,000
But like that level of usage for
where he was going in best ball 

684
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:43,680
drafts, that is exactly what you
got, what you were paying for, 

685
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:46,760
right? 
And they have the contingent 

686
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:50,760
upside, which is there is some 
probability that Kenneth Walker 

687
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:55,440
misses a game or multiple games 
and then Zac Charbenet's value 

688
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:58,280
increases, what he's gonna 
produce in fantasy increases. 

689
00:41:58,720 --> 00:42:03,000
That contingent upside was not 
priced in at all for Zac 

690
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:08,960
Charbenet because he he got a 
lot of work and did pretty well 

691
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:10,720
with it. 
I mean, if you look at the next 

692
00:42:10,720 --> 00:42:12,680
Gen. stuff on him, it wasn't 
great. 

693
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:15,640
He's not terribly efficient. 
You know, he he's not grading 

694
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:20,080
super well in PFF, but he's just
one of those backs who's like, 

695
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:23,680
but damn it, he can do it all. 
You know, like he doesn't do 

696
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:25,920
he's well. 
The fact that he was also 

697
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:29,400
getting targets, yes, and 
receptions. 

698
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:34,000
And so you're not just relying 
on, OK, so he's in the game now 

699
00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:37,760
and he's going to get 40 yards. 
God help us, please get a 

700
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:42,360
touchdown, right? 
You have the goal line work. 

701
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:45,720
You have they trusted him to 
catch the ball. 

702
00:42:47,240 --> 00:42:50,840
So even on a week where he was 
relatively inefficient on the 

703
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:54,640
ground and he still got pretty 
close to 20 points just because 

704
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:57,160
of that, like you said, how 
multifaceted he is. 

705
00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:01,080
When he plays Jack of all 
trades, master of none doesn't 

706
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:03,280
really matter though. 
When you're a big bodied running

707
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:05,400
back like him, like that's, 
that's pretty good. 

708
00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:09,080
That's all we can ask for, so. 
And and and and and. 

709
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:12,600
We're dropping Kenny McIntosh 
this week, if in case that 

710
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:16,360
wasn't clear. 
Yes, yeah, Zach Charbonnet just 

711
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:19,800
gobbled up all the work It it is
if Kenneth Walker's out in Zach 

712
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:22,120
Charbonnet's world and we're 
just living in it. 

713
00:43:22,960 --> 00:43:27,200
And the Seahawks offense looked 
revitalized compared to how they

714
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:30,240
looked Week 1. 
So that was encouraging. 

715
00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:35,120
Shout out to to Jay fresh from 
the Deposit Kingdom, who was off

716
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:38,960
his showdown Millie maker win. 
Not sure if anyone was paying 

717
00:43:38,960 --> 00:43:42,280
attention, but on Sunday he was 
live to literally win a 

718
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:46,720
back-to-back Millie in the bit. 
You know, the big Millie maker 

719
00:43:46,720 --> 00:43:50,560
on the main slate with a 
Seahawks double stack. 

720
00:43:50,640 --> 00:43:54,240
And man, that that would have 
been pretty fun. 

721
00:43:54,240 --> 00:43:57,560
But yeah, Seahawks offense look 
good as long as Kenneth Walker 

722
00:43:57,560 --> 00:44:00,080
is out. 
Zach Charbenet looks like a 

723
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:02,320
fantastic play. 
You can, if you've got him on a 

724
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:04,880
a lineup 'cause you, you know, 
drafted him for the contingent 

725
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:07,320
value or what have you. 
That's a plug and play. 

726
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:09,200
As long as as long as the 
Walker's out. 

727
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:16,840
Yeah, Yeah. 
The next back that I wanted to 

728
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:21,280
talk about is a guy that is 
right next to Charminet here on 

729
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:25,520
the chart. 
But man, another guy whose usage

730
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:31,080
in Week 2 was just truly absurd 
probably shouldn't have gotten 

731
00:44:31,120 --> 00:44:33,160
the usage that he got, to be 
frank. 

732
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:35,560
And it's not because he wasn't 
efficient with it. 

733
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:37,440
No, he was very efficient with 
it. 

734
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:42,160
It's just because his team was 
way out of the game and he was 

735
00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:44,000
still in there getting 
meaningless carries. 

736
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:46,720
And you think that a team would 
would want to protect a 

737
00:44:46,720 --> 00:44:51,480
superstar like Devana Chan 
because he looks extremely 

738
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:54,680
electric? 
If we had to redraft right now, 

739
00:44:56,320 --> 00:45:00,680
even in a world where CMC was 
healthy, I I think that you 

740
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:04,160
could make an argument that a 
champ should be going right next

741
00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:06,960
to CMC and I I wouldn't even be 
mad at you if you wanted to take

742
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:12,400
him over him. 
You would have him as like the 

743
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:14,600
one O 1. 
I mean or. 

744
00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:18,120
Or in the top 4 picks. 
It it's he's in the mix. 

745
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:20,360
I think he's yeah, top four top 
five picks. 

746
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:25,600
Certainly he's probably not the 
one O 1 because when other backs

747
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:27,960
are healthy in his backfield, 
he'll get a little bit less 

748
00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:33,400
work, but he's just so efficient
and he's getting so much passing

749
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:36,240
game work. 
Like the work he loses when 

750
00:45:36,240 --> 00:45:39,000
other backs come in is like the 
least valuable work. 

751
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:42,040
So it's just like, oh darn, he 
lost 4 touches. 

752
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:44,560
Yeah, those four touches. 
I mean for any other back they 

753
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:47,640
only project for like, you know,
two more points for him of 

754
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:49,680
course. 
He's gonna get, he's gonna, he's

755
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:51,600
getting. 
Or he's at the very least right 

756
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:56,400
now, he's getting all the high 
leverage picks or touches for 

757
00:45:56,400 --> 00:46:00,680
his team where if this is a 
really important carry, IE on 

758
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:04,800
the goal line, if if they want 
to target a running back, it's 

759
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:08,960
going to be a chance. 
He like even McDaniels, he got 

760
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:12,560
asked, hey, don't you think you 
should scale back on a chance 

761
00:46:12,560 --> 00:46:14,320
touches? 
He kind of, he got kind of hurt 

762
00:46:14,920 --> 00:46:16,880
and he said, and he said 
something along the lines of 

763
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:20,400
actually, he's doing so well. 
I I kind of want to increase his

764
00:46:20,400 --> 00:46:24,560
touches. 
I, I love him, he's so good. 

765
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:30,000
But yeah, just a, a quick note 
on the, the injury concern, 

766
00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:32,800
'cause I see so many people talk
about like, oh, but he's just, 

767
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:36,600
he's small so he can't hold up. 
There's no way it's gonna work. 

768
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:39,360
I mean, like, no running back 
can hold up. 

769
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:41,720
Guys like all of these guys are 
gonna get injured. 

770
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:44,680
You know, if, if, if you don't 
get injured as a running back, 

771
00:46:45,040 --> 00:46:49,600
you ran super pure, you know, so
like at every, if you look at 

772
00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:52,360
this chart, by the end of the 
season, half of these names will

773
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:54,640
have missed a game. 
That's just that's what it is. 

774
00:46:54,640 --> 00:46:57,280
Right or may no may no longer be
on the chart. 

775
00:46:57,720 --> 00:46:59,840
Right, might not, might not be 
on the chart at all 'cause 

776
00:46:59,840 --> 00:47:02,360
they're out for the season, you 
know, got I mean, knock on wood,

777
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:05,480
like we don't wish injury on any
of these guys Like we love 

778
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:08,040
watching them and want to see 
them succeed, you know, with the

779
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:10,320
exception of a. 
But it's that kind of 

780
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:15,440
association bias where you see a
running back miss a game and oh,

781
00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:19,800
he's small, injury prone. 
Yeah, where's I don't think 

782
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:23,280
anybody like if, if, if let's 
say the injury that happened to 

783
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:26,640
Pacheco, like don't, don't, we 
should not happy about it. 

784
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:29,080
And but if the injury that 
happened to Pacheco happened to 

785
00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:32,840
a Chan, everybody would say, Oh 
yeah, this is the risk that you 

786
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:34,360
took. 
He's injury prone. 

787
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:39,520
But nobody, nobody said anything
even remotely like that for 

788
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:42,240
Pacheco. 
Like it wasn't even a top. 

789
00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:47,920
Yeah, very, very well put. 
Yeah, so just no, please, 

790
00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:50,240
please, guys. 
No one, you know, victory 

791
00:47:50,240 --> 00:47:52,080
lapping injuries or saying like 
that. 

792
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:54,360
You knew that that was gonna 
happen when a player gets 

793
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:56,760
injured. 
Like if you say that a guy's 

794
00:47:56,760 --> 00:47:58,920
gonna get injured, chances are 
you're right. 

795
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:06,000
You know, just like, but other 
than a Chan, another guy whose 

796
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:11,160
role looking even better after 
Week 1, definitely to me, 

797
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:14,720
looking like a trend right here.
Grouped with a Chan and 

798
00:48:14,720 --> 00:48:19,640
Charbonnay is Tony Pollard to me
looking like the clear 1A on the

799
00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:23,400
Titans which is great for his 
fantasy value because if he 

800
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:27,840
wasn't the clear one AI don't 
think him or Spears are very 

801
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:30,560
useful just because of how bad 
this team is going to be. 

802
00:48:32,240 --> 00:48:36,320
But. 
When sorry, when you say to 1A, 

803
00:48:37,200 --> 00:48:42,840
you don't mean he's the 1A to 
Spears's 1B or, or is that what 

804
00:48:42,840 --> 00:48:44,720
you mean? 
Is that that he's, you're saying

805
00:48:44,720 --> 00:48:46,480
he's slightly ahead? 
Yeah. 

806
00:48:47,480 --> 00:48:50,240
OK, OK. 
What do you do? 

807
00:48:50,240 --> 00:48:54,840
You interpret it differently. 
And it feels a little bit more 

808
00:48:54,840 --> 00:49:01,760
like a yeah, like he's a little 
bit better than A1A where he 

809
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:07,280
he's kind of the starter. 
And then to me anyway, Spears is

810
00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:11,320
a little bit more not change of 
pace, but he's got he's got 

811
00:49:11,320 --> 00:49:15,520
receiving, he's got receiving. 
But certainly in the in the 

812
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:17,760
running game, in the running 
game, he's more of a change of 

813
00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:21,720
pace guy. 
So he's he's change of pace in 

814
00:49:21,720 --> 00:49:33,000
the running on this team doesn't
seem that valuable because that 

815
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:35,720
that that that's that's not that
doesn't seem to be what they're 

816
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:38,800
what they're interested in doing
is trying trying to the trying 

817
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:42,480
to the backs. 
Yeah, No, I I agree with you and

818
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:45,840
definitely I think Pollard is 
the one that he's the back to 

819
00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:48,360
own on this team. 
Don't think there's very much 

820
00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:51,440
value for Spears. 
I mean, he's got contingent 

821
00:49:51,440 --> 00:49:52,840
value. 
Pollard goes down. 

822
00:49:54,360 --> 00:49:58,400
I mean, if you had to redraft 
today and Spears and Charbonnay 

823
00:49:58,400 --> 00:50:00,800
and assume Kenneth Walker's 
healthy, but Spears and 

824
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:03,600
Charbonnay are going next to 
each other, do you think that's 

825
00:50:03,600 --> 00:50:05,480
reasonable? 
Would you take one over the 

826
00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:11,560
other? 
And oh man, that that that's a 

827
00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:16,600
right real punch in the gut. 
And so just just I pulled up the

828
00:50:16,600 --> 00:50:19,400
stats for Spears. 
So if you're looking at, at 

829
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:27,200
where he kind of charts, so 33% 
of his team snaps, he's either 

830
00:50:27,240 --> 00:50:31,000
has a rush attempt or drop back 
and that's 8% and rush attempt 

831
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:36,240
25% of routes. 
And so I think that's probably 

832
00:50:36,240 --> 00:50:39,640
around where and Charbs and 
maybe a little bit higher than 

833
00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:42,680
Charbs would be without an 
injury. 

834
00:50:43,600 --> 00:50:49,560
And and so they, I guess he's a 
little bit higher maybe 

835
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:56,240
standalone value and then 
unclear and contingent upside 

836
00:50:56,320 --> 00:51:00,040
likely very strong, very similar
sort of contingent upside. 

837
00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:05,040
But then the question is how 
much does that matter with 

838
00:51:05,040 --> 00:51:08,280
Tennessee not being very 
functional and Seahawks actually

839
00:51:08,280 --> 00:51:11,560
looking good? 
And just as I think through 

840
00:51:11,680 --> 00:51:20,000
this, I mean, he's Spears would 
be going for if we had to 

841
00:51:20,000 --> 00:51:22,240
redraft today, Spears would be 
going pretty late, right? 

842
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:25,080
Yeah, I know I would. 
I'd clearly be sharped over 

843
00:51:25,080 --> 00:51:26,080
Spears just for the. 
Right. 

844
00:51:26,120 --> 00:51:29,360
Like he's kind of going in like 
I, I, I almost envisioned him 

845
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:31,480
going in like Khalil Herbert 
kind of range. 

846
00:51:32,080 --> 00:51:34,680
Wow. 
Give given what we know, I mean,

847
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:37,880
unless they say, unless the 
coach says, I don't know, Coach 

848
00:51:37,880 --> 00:51:39,160
said. 
Hey, we want these guys to be 

849
00:51:39,160 --> 00:51:44,280
much closer and like, and I 
guess that that's still like 

850
00:51:44,280 --> 00:51:47,880
you, you still have outcomes 
where it bounces back like this.

851
00:51:48,840 --> 00:51:51,960
But if you given the price 
you're paying you, you really 

852
00:51:51,960 --> 00:51:54,920
need that and it doesn't feel 
like the most likely right now. 

853
00:51:55,560 --> 00:52:00,280
Right. 
Yeah, one of the other guys who 

854
00:52:00,400 --> 00:52:04,040
again saw his usage increase 
week over week. 

855
00:52:05,320 --> 00:52:06,480
It's Jameer game. 
Am I still? 

856
00:52:06,480 --> 00:52:08,960
Frozen I I see a comment here 
where I froze. 

857
00:52:09,040 --> 00:52:13,560
No, you're you're back now. 
OK, my power flickered and 

858
00:52:13,560 --> 00:52:16,960
unfortunately so that's probably
what happened there. 

859
00:52:18,480 --> 00:52:23,560
Jameer Gibbs getting more work 
out, snapping Montgomery this 

860
00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:27,440
week, getting more work. 
We're we're seeing the thesis 

861
00:52:27,440 --> 00:52:31,800
behind why he was going at the 
1-2 turn playing out where, you 

862
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:34,400
know, people were thinking, 
well, he's clear. 

863
00:52:34,400 --> 00:52:37,080
The more talented of the two 
backs, they spent an incredible 

864
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:40,080
amount of draft capital on him. 
They're going to want to use him

865
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:41,920
more. 
He'll he'll get the high value 

866
00:52:41,920 --> 00:52:44,760
touches and you know, Montgomery
will still be involved. 

867
00:52:44,760 --> 00:52:46,280
He'll get some goal line stuff 
too. 

868
00:52:46,280 --> 00:52:49,120
And and keep some of the high 
value touches for himself. 

869
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:52,640
But that was the thesis behind 
Gibbs and it, it looks to me 

870
00:52:52,640 --> 00:52:57,520
like it's playing out. 
I I guess the question I have 

871
00:52:57,520 --> 00:53:01,200
for you is, seeing what we've 
seen so far through two games, 

872
00:53:01,280 --> 00:53:04,560
does the Gibbs price at the 1-2 
turn seem pretty reasonable to 

873
00:53:04,560 --> 00:53:09,320
you? 
Yeah, it it it does. 

874
00:53:09,560 --> 00:53:14,800
It does. 
I mean the the issue and, and 

875
00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:16,760
this could have been this might 
have been the wrong way to look 

876
00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:18,280
at it. 
The issue I always had with the 

877
00:53:18,320 --> 00:53:22,600
Gibbs price was that I always 
compared it to the a Chan price 

878
00:53:23,160 --> 00:53:26,120
and I'm like, I like a Chan just
as much if not more. 

879
00:53:26,120 --> 00:53:28,920
I mean, going cheaper, why do I 
do Gibbs at the 1-2 turn? 

880
00:53:29,400 --> 00:53:34,640
But then maybe the answer was a 
Chan Giga Smash Gibbs, 

881
00:53:34,640 --> 00:53:37,960
appropriately priced. 
Yeah, yeah. 

882
00:53:38,000 --> 00:53:41,160
So. 
The way I was looking at it was 

883
00:53:41,160 --> 00:53:46,480
probably not not not correct. 
And SO12 turn definitely feels 

884
00:53:46,480 --> 00:53:50,880
that pretty, pretty appropriate 
and if not a tad on their price,

885
00:53:50,880 --> 00:53:54,400
you probably looking at this 
kind of usage, you probably take

886
00:53:54,400 --> 00:53:58,000
them maybe before like the A.J. 
Brown kind of tier of receivers.

887
00:54:00,000 --> 00:54:02,040
Yeah, that's close. 
That's close for me. 

888
00:54:02,080 --> 00:54:05,240
I mean, it's certainly making me
think about, gosh, how fun would

889
00:54:05,240 --> 00:54:09,320
it be to have a team that has 
Gibbs and a Chan on it as a, you

890
00:54:09,320 --> 00:54:11,080
know, hyper fragile kind of 
team. 

891
00:54:11,160 --> 00:54:14,400
That would be a little fun. 
I and. 

892
00:54:14,600 --> 00:54:17,840
The the other note I have here 
is it looks like Gibbs is 

893
00:54:17,840 --> 00:54:22,640
another regression candidate 
where he's gotten at minus. 

894
00:54:22,800 --> 00:54:29,480
So he's he's down a 2/3 of a 
touchdown on so he's two 2/3 of 

895
00:54:29,480 --> 00:54:33,120
a touchdown. 
So 4 points in fantasy below 

896
00:54:33,120 --> 00:54:39,640
expectation and so give given 
what we believe about their 

897
00:54:39,640 --> 00:54:43,880
offensive line and his talent 
and that should certainly be 

898
00:54:43,880 --> 00:54:49,120
positive rather than negative. 
Yeah, that's a good point. 

899
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:52,640
And yeah, so I I certainly think
that Gibbs best games are still 

900
00:54:52,640 --> 00:54:55,960
ahead of him. 
Definitely a fun one to have. 

901
00:54:55,960 --> 00:54:59,400
You got to be happy about Jameer
Gibbs if you've got him on your 

902
00:54:59,400 --> 00:55:04,800
teams right now. 
And if you you know a guy where 

903
00:55:05,040 --> 00:55:07,880
you got the green light to 
target him in in good matchups 

904
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:12,000
and you know, DFS battle 
royales, he he's just all 

905
00:55:12,000 --> 00:55:14,040
around. 
You know one one of the running 

906
00:55:14,040 --> 00:55:15,480
backs that you want to play 
around. 

907
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:23,000
Right, right, right. 
Here's here's one who his role 

908
00:55:23,000 --> 00:55:24,440
is up near the top, right next 
to. 

909
00:55:24,440 --> 00:55:27,640
We talked about how good a role 
from Andre Stevenson has, man, 

910
00:55:27,640 --> 00:55:31,240
how about Josh Jacobs and the 
role becoming even more 

911
00:55:31,240 --> 00:55:34,280
solidified with the Lloyd to IR 
news today. 

912
00:55:35,000 --> 00:55:36,440
I mean. 
Is that's brutal. 

913
00:55:36,800 --> 00:55:40,400
Just is Josh Jacobs just going 
to get 400 touches this year? 

914
00:55:40,840 --> 00:55:44,720
I think I think they're probably
going to just feed them until 

915
00:55:45,160 --> 00:55:47,000
until it breaks. 
Yeah. 

916
00:55:48,040 --> 00:55:52,560
I do I, I do remember seeing 
their their other backup Wilson 

917
00:55:52,560 --> 00:55:56,720
looking fairly good in Brazil 
when they played the Eagles and 

918
00:55:56,720 --> 00:55:59,160
so don't want to lose sight of 
that. 

919
00:55:59,160 --> 00:56:02,840
I think he he can still be a 
factor and but they they're 

920
00:56:02,840 --> 00:56:06,800
going to they're likely 
especially short term going to 

921
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:13,080
heavily focus on Jacobs. 
And I, I think it is interesting

922
00:56:13,080 --> 00:56:17,440
that the, the, the Colts run 
defense that they played against

923
00:56:17,440 --> 00:56:22,240
this week, it did seem like 
particularly bad where like they

924
00:56:22,240 --> 00:56:26,240
they gave up a lot of yardage to
Joe Mixon and then Joe Mixon 

925
00:56:26,240 --> 00:56:29,160
against the Texans, like 
completely bottled up. 

926
00:56:29,840 --> 00:56:33,880
And and so that that's I think 
that's a kind of important 

927
00:56:33,880 --> 00:56:39,080
context unlike his overall 
production this week, but rolls 

928
00:56:39,080 --> 00:56:42,080
certainly very strong. 
Yeah, that, that is a good 

929
00:56:42,080 --> 00:56:42,640
point. 
Who? 

930
00:56:42,720 --> 00:56:44,400
Let's see, who do the Colts play
this week? 

931
00:56:44,400 --> 00:56:49,240
Anyone fun for us to target here
in the DFS or vRS? 

932
00:56:50,120 --> 00:56:55,680
And cold schedule. 
So they play the Bears. 

933
00:56:56,120 --> 00:56:57,880
So. 
Load up DeAndre Swift. 

934
00:56:59,560 --> 00:57:02,480
I mean, could you Matt like if 
there is a get right spot? 

935
00:57:02,680 --> 00:57:05,040
So so here's here's the real 
question. 

936
00:57:05,280 --> 00:57:08,640
If DeAndre Swift doesn't post a 
good game against the Colts 

937
00:57:08,640 --> 00:57:15,440
defense, is it Jover? 
Oh, completely Jover and yeah, 

938
00:57:15,680 --> 00:57:19,440
completely jover. 
And you just know that the, the 

939
00:57:19,440 --> 00:57:22,040
bears were going to establish 
the shit out of it. 

940
00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:27,520
And, and I, I mean, hopefully 
for their sake, they do get 

941
00:57:27,640 --> 00:57:31,520
Kalil Herbert more involved, but
that, that just feels like 

942
00:57:31,520 --> 00:57:33,560
they're going to establish it so
hard. 

943
00:57:35,440 --> 00:57:40,360
Can't wait. 
Those are all the notes I had 

944
00:57:40,360 --> 00:57:43,160
for this chart. 
I've got a couple on the backups

945
00:57:43,160 --> 00:57:45,240
I wanted to talk about. 
Did you have anyone else you 

946
00:57:45,240 --> 00:57:51,640
wanted to point out here? 
And no, no, I'm, I'm happy to 

947
00:57:51,640 --> 00:57:54,480
move on. 
I, I mean, I think I, I, I 

948
00:57:54,480 --> 00:57:57,200
remember you sent me some notes 
that I maybe want to touch on 

949
00:57:57,200 --> 00:58:01,440
them quickly is do we think 
bookie Irving is going to his 

950
00:58:01,440 --> 00:58:05,640
role is going to increase and do
just a note on that White is 

951
00:58:05,640 --> 00:58:09,000
playing really, really bad, just
really, really bad play from 

952
00:58:09,000 --> 00:58:16,320
white and, and, and would hope 
that, I mean, that in 

953
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:24,640
combination with Brookie playing
well does lead to a higher shift

954
00:58:25,040 --> 00:58:27,280
to book. 
And then I think you also had a 

955
00:58:27,280 --> 00:58:31,640
note about what's his name, 
Deonte Foreman. 

956
00:58:32,360 --> 00:58:35,600
Yeah, both, both of them are on 
the backups chart there. 

957
00:58:36,600 --> 00:58:39,880
Oh, OK, OK, I'm just blowing 
through the black. 

958
00:58:40,000 --> 00:58:41,480
No. 
That's OK. 

959
00:58:41,720 --> 00:58:44,680
But yeah, with a little context 
with the Bucky Irving stuff too,

960
00:58:44,960 --> 00:58:47,280
Rashad White did have a minor 
groin injury. 

961
00:58:47,280 --> 00:58:49,840
He reentered the game. 
He didn't he wasn't like held 

962
00:58:49,840 --> 00:58:51,720
out of the game after he injured
his groin. 

963
00:58:52,600 --> 00:58:56,000
But I think, you know, that's 
that's opening the window for 

964
00:58:56,000 --> 00:59:00,080
Bucky Irving. 
And with a player like Rashad 

965
00:59:00,080 --> 00:59:04,480
White, where we can all tell 
he's bad, you know, he's not 

966
00:59:04,480 --> 00:59:07,680
efficient. 
He he's got, you know, use as a 

967
00:59:07,680 --> 00:59:10,600
pass catcher like he's, he's 
perfectly fine there. 

968
00:59:10,840 --> 00:59:14,480
But as a rusher like he is, he 
is well below what an average 

969
00:59:14,480 --> 00:59:17,440
NFL back would do in the same 
circumstances as him. 

970
00:59:18,000 --> 00:59:21,720
So when you're a player like 
that and you open up the window 

971
00:59:22,040 --> 00:59:25,240
to a guy who we we don't know 
how talented Bucky Irving is 

972
00:59:25,240 --> 00:59:26,360
yet. 
You know, we've only seen a 

973
00:59:26,360 --> 00:59:29,640
little bit of him, but what we 
have seen looks a lot better 

974
00:59:29,640 --> 00:59:31,440
than what we've seen from Rashad
White. 

975
00:59:31,800 --> 00:59:35,720
And so I think that I mean this,
this could very well be the last

976
00:59:35,720 --> 00:59:38,720
stop on the train if you're 
trying to buy Bucky Irving like 

977
00:59:39,200 --> 00:59:43,120
the time is now, it might. 
So that's a that's a homely take

978
00:59:43,120 --> 00:59:46,440
right where you're you're either
trying to pick, get them on your

979
00:59:46,440 --> 00:59:49,680
roster if the if it's a yeah 
short roster league where you're

980
00:59:49,680 --> 00:59:54,160
trying to trade for them. 
And I, I don't, I don't think 

981
00:59:54,160 --> 00:59:56,280
that's the situation where you 
can play it before. 

982
00:59:56,280 --> 00:59:59,720
You see, it can't, can't play it
in DFS right now, can't really 

983
00:59:59,720 --> 01:00:02,720
play it in like a battle Royale 
cause 'cause Rashad White is 

984
01:00:02,720 --> 01:00:04,720
still gonna get plenty of the 
work. 

985
01:00:05,000 --> 01:00:09,840
You're just hoping we're trying 
to get ahead of Bucky looking 

986
01:00:09,840 --> 01:00:13,560
good on more work and then the 
coaching staff coming out and 

987
01:00:13,560 --> 01:00:16,680
and telling us, hey, we're gonna
we're gonna see what we've got 

988
01:00:16,680 --> 01:00:17,560
here for. 
Right. 

989
01:00:17,560 --> 01:00:19,280
We're gonna play this guy a lot.
Yeah. 

990
01:00:19,560 --> 01:00:25,400
Or or or even a game where we 
just got a closer to a 5050 

991
01:00:25,400 --> 01:00:28,760
split and then people do the the
trend. 

992
01:00:29,360 --> 01:00:33,480
Right, Yeah, really, I mean 
really the the greatest tragedy 

993
01:00:33,480 --> 01:00:37,320
is that we don't have a showdown
slate with the Bucks here, you 

994
01:00:37,320 --> 01:00:40,800
know, before their next or for 
their next game, 'cause I that's

995
01:00:40,800 --> 01:00:45,120
the spot where I would jam 
Bucky, you know, just before the

996
01:00:45,120 --> 01:00:48,080
usage is out there and and 
abundantly clear to everyone 

997
01:00:48,080 --> 01:00:51,640
where you can really IKB the 
projection and say Bucky's usage

998
01:00:51,640 --> 01:00:54,680
is going to go up and we're 
under projecting his efficiency 

999
01:00:54,680 --> 01:00:56,960
right now. 
So I'm just going to going to 

1000
01:00:56,960 --> 01:01:00,520
absolutely attack the spot so 
little so. 

1001
01:01:00,560 --> 01:01:02,800
What I'm, what I'm hearing is 
that you're going to call the 

1002
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:08,600
NFL league office and, and say 
it's a travesty that the that 

1003
01:01:08,600 --> 01:01:10,600
they're not in prime time. 
I need a prime. 

1004
01:01:10,600 --> 01:01:15,680
I need a prime time Bucks game. 
Get them to flex the books into 

1005
01:01:15,680 --> 01:01:22,720
prime time and then your order. 
Note was that Dante Foreman? 

1006
01:01:23,560 --> 01:01:24,560
Yeah. 
So let's move to. 

1007
01:01:24,640 --> 01:01:28,040
I want to move to the backup 
chart to show Deonta Foreman's 

1008
01:01:28,360 --> 01:01:31,120
usage here. 
Are we not on the backup chart? 

1009
01:01:31,680 --> 01:01:35,680
I'm not. 
Seeing it, Are you sure? 

1010
01:01:35,920 --> 01:01:39,760
I mean, Derrick Henry is not 
usually on the backup chart, but

1011
01:01:40,800 --> 01:01:43,840
this is the backup chart. 
Chat, can you can you let us 

1012
01:01:43,840 --> 01:01:46,840
know if you're seeing it? 
It might it might just be on my 

1013
01:01:46,840 --> 01:01:48,280
end or it might just be on 
Draco's end. 

1014
01:01:48,280 --> 01:01:52,320
But if you if you're seeing the 
the greater than 40% rush 

1015
01:01:52,320 --> 01:01:57,000
attempts with Dijon Robinson at 
the top, let us know and. 

1016
01:01:58,680 --> 01:02:02,960
OK. 
And does it show now? 

1017
01:02:03,400 --> 01:02:05,840
So Nick, I had a note from Nick 
that was showing the starter. 

1018
01:02:07,400 --> 01:02:10,360
Yeah, try and maybe try and and 
close it out and re share your 

1019
01:02:10,360 --> 01:02:11,920
screen. 
I think it something may have 

1020
01:02:11,920 --> 01:02:13,560
happened when your when. 
Your power went up there. 

1021
01:02:13,560 --> 01:02:20,720
OK, that yeah, good, good call. 
So. 

1022
01:02:23,520 --> 01:02:25,320
But yeah, while you while you 
get that pulled up. 

1023
01:02:25,320 --> 01:02:29,720
So Deonta Foreman took over at 
the Browns backfield this week. 

1024
01:02:29,880 --> 01:02:34,240
As far as opportunities are 
concerned, Ford was still more 

1025
01:02:34,240 --> 01:02:39,680
efficient than him, but Foreman 
got substantially more work and 

1026
01:02:40,800 --> 01:02:45,760
I'm so I'm a little bit of a, a 
Danta foreman truther. 

1027
01:02:45,920 --> 01:02:50,200
I, I think now, granted, if you,
if you're starting to look at 

1028
01:02:50,200 --> 01:02:53,240
Danta Foreman advanced metrics 
and peripherals, they're not 

1029
01:02:53,240 --> 01:02:58,520
gonna be pretty OK. 
But I, my read on Danta Foreman 

1030
01:02:58,520 --> 01:03:04,320
is that NFL teams like him 
because he, he runs as he is 

1031
01:03:04,320 --> 01:03:07,200
expected to run. 
Like, hey, the play says do this

1032
01:03:07,480 --> 01:03:10,280
and he goes and he does it and 
he'll break a tackle here and 

1033
01:03:10,280 --> 01:03:13,240
there. 
And he, he's a bigger body guy. 

1034
01:03:13,240 --> 01:03:15,840
So he can handle, you know, goal
line stuff between the tackle 

1035
01:03:15,840 --> 01:03:19,200
stuff really well. 
And he's not a total zero in the

1036
01:03:19,200 --> 01:03:22,960
passing game like he, he can, 
you know, get some receiving 

1037
01:03:22,960 --> 01:03:25,400
work. 
You know, he's got a little bit 

1038
01:03:25,400 --> 01:03:29,680
of routes here on the chart. 
I'm wondering, do you think that

1039
01:03:29,680 --> 01:03:32,680
this is the flipping? 
Is Deonta Foreman taking over 

1040
01:03:32,680 --> 01:03:35,840
the backfield over Jerome Ford 
or was it a blip? 

1041
01:03:36,400 --> 01:03:39,280
Here's what I think. 
I think it's one of those things

1042
01:03:39,280 --> 01:03:43,280
where when the Browns have a 
lead and and they're solving 

1043
01:03:43,280 --> 01:03:45,440
that lead, I think it is 
Foreman. 

1044
01:03:45,840 --> 01:03:49,040
And now that's a pretty tin 
reading of it. 

1045
01:03:49,520 --> 01:03:53,160
And that is based on where rare 
I've got. 

1046
01:03:54,080 --> 01:03:57,280
So Foreman, he had 6 touches in 
the first half, nine in the 

1047
01:03:57,280 --> 01:04:03,680
second-half. 
And he was kind of, he was kind 

1048
01:04:03,680 --> 01:04:07,600
of even when with who who's, 
what's the guy's name? 

1049
01:04:07,600 --> 01:04:09,760
The other running back. 
I know you just said it. 

1050
01:04:11,280 --> 01:04:12,960
Ford, Foreman. 
Yeah, Ford. 

1051
01:04:13,120 --> 01:04:16,360
I think Ford and for Foreman 
were pretty even in the first 

1052
01:04:16,360 --> 01:04:20,360
half. 
And then Foreman pulled away in 

1053
01:04:20,360 --> 01:04:21,960
the second-half when they had 
that lead. 

1054
01:04:22,440 --> 01:04:26,680
So that's a tin reading of it. 
And, and it's it's based on like

1055
01:04:27,320 --> 01:04:31,800
kind of interpretation because 
that that's that's really small 

1056
01:04:31,800 --> 01:04:34,120
numbers. 
But I think that's what makes 

1057
01:04:34,120 --> 01:04:37,560
most sense to me, that they have
that they have clear roles in 

1058
01:04:37,560 --> 01:04:41,000
mind for these guys. 
And when they're ahead, it is 

1059
01:04:41,000 --> 01:04:47,000
going to be the Foreman show. 
OK, yeah, I I think that makes 

1060
01:04:47,000 --> 01:04:49,200
sense to me. 
So, yeah, not a not a full 

1061
01:04:49,200 --> 01:04:54,600
flipping, but definitely, you 
know, if you were, if you were 

1062
01:04:54,600 --> 01:04:58,640
feeling really good about Jerome
Ford, hate to hate to burst your

1063
01:04:58,640 --> 01:05:00,200
bubble on that. 
Actually, I'm lying. 

1064
01:05:00,200 --> 01:05:01,440
I love to burst your bubble on 
that. 

1065
01:05:01,440 --> 01:05:02,840
I thought Ford was an awful 
pick. 

1066
01:05:03,760 --> 01:05:06,960
Sorry. 
Sorry, not sorry, but yeah, I, I

1067
01:05:06,960 --> 01:05:09,840
mean, I just think that really 
what it's going to come down to 

1068
01:05:09,840 --> 01:05:13,080
is not that Deonte Foreman is 
now this great fantasy asset. 

1069
01:05:13,080 --> 01:05:17,560
It's just, to me, it's almost a 
stay away because Brown's 

1070
01:05:17,560 --> 01:05:19,200
offense looks bad too. 
So. 

1071
01:05:19,840 --> 01:05:23,600
You you you, you need a QB 
change to kind of go after this 

1072
01:05:23,600 --> 01:05:28,640
offense I think. 
Shall we move on to the 

1073
01:05:28,640 --> 01:05:32,200
efficiency charts? 
Tell me if you see the new 

1074
01:05:33,080 --> 01:05:35,760
efficiency chart. 
I do, I do. 

1075
01:05:36,320 --> 01:05:40,680
And this I, I really like what 
this chart shows just because 

1076
01:05:40,680 --> 01:05:44,000
it's easier to kind of visualize
how good Romandre Stevenson's 

1077
01:05:44,000 --> 01:05:45,720
role is. 
We we already talked to him, so 

1078
01:05:45,720 --> 01:05:48,840
we'll spend a ton of time on it.
But I mean, look at this 8 

1079
01:05:48,840 --> 01:05:52,560
expected receiving points. 
They're just about 16 expected 

1080
01:05:52,560 --> 01:05:55,360
rushing points per game. 
Like, this guy's set up for a 

1081
01:05:55,360 --> 01:05:59,080
legendary season and this stuff 
continues now, Grant. 

1082
01:05:59,200 --> 01:06:03,240
Well, just just I, I went and I 
got into a back and forth with 

1083
01:06:03,240 --> 01:06:06,240
somebody about this and the 
legendary season. 

1084
01:06:06,360 --> 01:06:11,280
It does contemplate that running
back also having positive 

1085
01:06:11,280 --> 01:06:15,280
efficiency. 
Yes, I, I, I think, I think, I 

1086
01:06:15,280 --> 01:06:17,640
don't think, I don't want to 
like close the door on that for 

1087
01:06:17,640 --> 01:06:21,320
Stevenson, but and I think 
that's something that that is 

1088
01:06:21,320 --> 01:06:23,680
easy to overlook, that is very 
important. 

1089
01:06:24,360 --> 01:06:28,040
Yeah, no, I I certainly agree. 
I, I don't think, I mean he 

1090
01:06:28,200 --> 01:06:31,320
again, yeah, you're right. 
We won't close the door on him 

1091
01:06:31,320 --> 01:06:35,640
having positive efficiency, but 
I, I think the thesis of the 

1092
01:06:35,640 --> 01:06:39,440
Stevenson play is the volume is 
there, you know. 

1093
01:06:39,720 --> 01:06:43,200
If you get efficiency and and 
and you paid a great price for 

1094
01:06:43,200 --> 01:06:47,040
that volume, a fantastic price 
for that volume, which is I 

1095
01:06:47,040 --> 01:06:49,560
think your point. 
Now you want to talk about 

1096
01:06:49,560 --> 01:06:54,080
another guy who you got at an 
absolute screaming bargain? 

1097
01:06:54,080 --> 01:06:58,040
Basement price for what he's 
doing is JK Dobbins. 

1098
01:06:58,240 --> 01:07:03,680
Now, Dobbins does not have a ton
of expected points because #1 

1099
01:07:03,680 --> 01:07:05,120
the Chargers don't throw the 
ball. 

1100
01:07:05,120 --> 01:07:08,480
So how could you get very many 
receiving expected points? 

1101
01:07:09,000 --> 01:07:12,840
And #2 he didn't have a ton of 
carries in Week 1. 

1102
01:07:13,480 --> 01:07:15,200
You know, he had more here in 
Week 2. 

1103
01:07:15,200 --> 01:07:18,320
But he's just so efficient. 
He's leading the league in 

1104
01:07:18,320 --> 01:07:23,000
breakaway yards. 
Like I, I think that, you know, 

1105
01:07:23,000 --> 01:07:26,280
near the end of draft season, we
were, we were starting to kind 

1106
01:07:26,280 --> 01:07:29,480
of hammer Dobbins as it became 
abundantly clear that he was, 

1107
01:07:29,880 --> 01:07:32,480
you know, going to make the 
team, which that was the reason 

1108
01:07:32,480 --> 01:07:35,320
we were kind of scared of him 
earlier in the season. 

1109
01:07:35,320 --> 01:07:38,200
The team didn't have any kind of
real commitment to him, just 

1110
01:07:38,480 --> 01:07:40,840
$50,000 guaranteed on his 
contract. 

1111
01:07:40,840 --> 01:07:44,040
Guy coming off an Achilles 
injury following back-to-back 

1112
01:07:44,040 --> 01:07:47,960
seasons of brutal knee injuries 
to where the last time we saw 

1113
01:07:47,960 --> 01:07:51,520
him on the field, he's like 
dragging a dead leg behind him. 

1114
01:07:51,720 --> 01:07:54,280
Still hitting pretty impressive 
top speed for having a dead leg.

1115
01:07:54,280 --> 01:07:58,640
Like I'm certainly not keeping 
stride with JK Dobbins, but I 

1116
01:07:58,640 --> 01:08:02,720
mean, he looks great. 
Like is can you take the air out

1117
01:08:02,720 --> 01:08:07,320
of my JK Dobbins bowl case right
now or, or are we just are we 

1118
01:08:07,320 --> 01:08:12,280
all in? 
And so I, I think you're, you're

1119
01:08:12,280 --> 01:08:15,800
you're certainly happy to play, 
to play Jacob Jobbins until that

1120
01:08:15,800 --> 01:08:20,479
until shown otherwise. 
And it's kind of like he, he, he

1121
01:08:20,479 --> 01:08:22,640
doesn't seem to have the long 
speed anymore. 

1122
01:08:23,160 --> 01:08:27,399
And, but with how well, how good
the old line is and his vision 

1123
01:08:27,399 --> 01:08:31,800
and kind of ability to make 
those cuts and you don't need 

1124
01:08:31,800 --> 01:08:35,120
the long speed, like, and 
there's certainly been running 

1125
01:08:35,120 --> 01:08:40,640
backs who don't have long speed,
but have been kind of crafty in,

1126
01:08:40,640 --> 01:08:44,439
in, in navigating that line of 
scrimmage and who've made a 

1127
01:08:44,439 --> 01:08:46,880
living. 
And he looked, he's looked 

1128
01:08:46,880 --> 01:08:54,800
really good doing that so far. 
And I, I think though that I 

1129
01:08:54,800 --> 01:08:59,080
don't, it is tough for me to see
somebody of that kind of profile

1130
01:08:59,520 --> 01:09:02,560
becoming like this kind of a 
bell cow. 

1131
01:09:03,479 --> 01:09:07,240
I think even if they tone Zach 
Moss down, they probably rotate 

1132
01:09:07,240 --> 01:09:11,000
in some of the other guys rather
or not Zach Moss and Gus 

1133
01:09:11,000 --> 01:09:14,760
Edwards. 
And if they rotate in, I think 

1134
01:09:14,760 --> 01:09:18,000
they'll rotate in other guys. 
Maybe they will bump Dobbins up 

1135
01:09:18,000 --> 01:09:20,880
a bit. 
But I think if they if they give

1136
01:09:20,880 --> 01:09:27,760
the Gus the Hawk, it'll be to to
kind of other guys benefit like 

1137
01:09:27,760 --> 01:09:32,040
let's say yeah, either Vidal and
then maybe some Patterson as 

1138
01:09:32,040 --> 01:09:35,000
well. 
So, so you're not expecting this

1139
01:09:35,000 --> 01:09:39,120
monster workload for Dobbins, 
but I certainly think that five 

1140
01:09:39,120 --> 01:09:43,000
weeks from now he's going to be 
in this, you know, probably 10 

1141
01:09:43,000 --> 01:09:45,080
to 15 expected fantasy point 
band. 

1142
01:09:45,080 --> 01:09:48,040
And, and near the, the top of 
that, closer to the 15 expected 

1143
01:09:48,040 --> 01:09:51,319
fantasy points, 'cause I think 
they're, they want to give him 

1144
01:09:51,319 --> 01:09:55,080
more touches, I would assume, 
but I, I don't like you said, 

1145
01:09:55,080 --> 01:09:57,640
they're not going to turn them 
into a huge workhorse or 

1146
01:09:57,640 --> 01:09:59,800
anything. 
And I mean the. 

1147
01:09:59,800 --> 01:10:02,480
Charge is really hard to get to 
15 as well. 

1148
01:10:02,480 --> 01:10:04,920
Just that. 
Almost purely true. 

1149
01:10:05,440 --> 01:10:08,120
True rushing. 
That's a, that's a good point, 

1150
01:10:08,160 --> 01:10:10,840
yeah. 
So I I think 10 to 15 is 

1151
01:10:10,840 --> 01:10:16,040
probably like the right range or
the the good expected range. 

1152
01:10:16,560 --> 01:10:22,560
And then maybe he adds like 5 on
top, like 5 is a lot and put he 

1153
01:10:22,560 --> 01:10:25,720
he adds a little bit on top with
his good play and the online 

1154
01:10:25,720 --> 01:10:29,080
being good, but at at the price 
you got him like that, that is 

1155
01:10:29,080 --> 01:10:33,320
fantastic. 
Someone who you're not happy 

1156
01:10:33,320 --> 01:10:38,400
about, the price that you got in
is Derrick Henry, who is more 

1157
01:10:38,400 --> 01:10:41,160
and more just looking like fancy
David Montgomery. 

1158
01:10:41,760 --> 01:10:45,200
He's sitting here in this 10 to 
15 expected fantasy point range.

1159
01:10:46,280 --> 01:10:49,600
If we actually go back one chart
I want I want to point out the 

1160
01:10:49,600 --> 01:10:52,680
Derrick Henry snap share just to
highlight. 

1161
01:10:53,200 --> 01:10:55,320
So there they are at the top of 
the chart. 

1162
01:10:55,680 --> 01:10:57,760
Derrick Henry and David 
Montgomery. 

1163
01:10:57,960 --> 01:11:02,120
They're basically the same 
thing, you know, except I would 

1164
01:11:02,120 --> 01:11:05,120
argue Derrick Henry probably 
gets fewer high value touches 

1165
01:11:05,120 --> 01:11:08,680
than David Montgomery because 
David Montgomery will get the 

1166
01:11:08,680 --> 01:11:13,200
occasional target here and there
and the Lions offense will 

1167
01:11:13,200 --> 01:11:15,560
certainly happily give him the 
ball at the goal line. 

1168
01:11:15,960 --> 01:11:18,080
That's not to say that Derrick 
Henry's not gonna get the ball 

1169
01:11:18,080 --> 01:11:21,280
at the goal line. 
It's just this is this is the 

1170
01:11:21,280 --> 01:11:24,200
same type of profile, right? 
Like a guy. 

1171
01:11:24,280 --> 01:11:26,960
Who? 
Same type of role? 

1172
01:11:27,040 --> 01:11:28,360
I I don't know. 
Same type of role. 

1173
01:11:28,600 --> 01:11:33,440
That's that's better, yeah. 
And like to be honest, it when 

1174
01:11:33,440 --> 01:11:35,840
you look at some of the metrics,
Derrick Henry looks fine. 

1175
01:11:36,600 --> 01:11:40,760
And which is like a 
disappointing way to describe 

1176
01:11:40,760 --> 01:11:44,280
Derrick Henry because it like 
the lot for for a long time now,

1177
01:11:44,280 --> 01:11:48,240
he just been this monster. 
And I don't think we're seeing 

1178
01:11:48,240 --> 01:11:52,240
that so far this year. 
So like from that perspective, 

1179
01:11:52,240 --> 01:11:54,640
that's like Derrick Henry is 
fine. 

1180
01:11:55,400 --> 01:11:59,720
Is is that disappointing? 
Yeah, the The thing is when 

1181
01:11:59,720 --> 01:12:02,400
you're paying a third round 
price tag for Derrick Henry, 

1182
01:12:02,400 --> 01:12:04,800
like fine is not an acceptable 
outcome. 

1183
01:12:05,200 --> 01:12:07,240
If if you're trying to make 
money in your league, if you're 

1184
01:12:07,240 --> 01:12:10,000
trying to root for Derrick Henry
while you lose money, then 

1185
01:12:10,000 --> 01:12:12,400
that's a great price to pay. 
You will do that very 

1186
01:12:12,400 --> 01:12:15,640
successfully. 
So like in the next Gen. stats 

1187
01:12:15,640 --> 01:12:19,760
stuff he has .7 yards over 
expected per attempt. 

1188
01:12:20,680 --> 01:12:25,160
Which again is like is fine, 
it's. 

1189
01:12:25,160 --> 01:12:29,680
Fine, Yeah, my, my issue is 
purely with the price, right? 

1190
01:12:29,680 --> 01:12:33,080
The price you're having to pay 
for Derek Henry was just not, 

1191
01:12:33,280 --> 01:12:33,960
not. 
Powerful, right? 

1192
01:12:34,080 --> 01:12:37,600
Right, Right. 
You, you completely overpaid for

1193
01:12:37,600 --> 01:12:41,960
what you got here. 
Like this is like a Javonte 

1194
01:12:41,960 --> 01:12:48,760
Williams Derek, not Derek Henry 
David Montgomery type of bet 

1195
01:12:49,040 --> 01:12:52,280
unfortunately. 
Now, now, hang on, because I'm 

1196
01:12:52,280 --> 01:12:55,240
about to do the biggest heel 
turn of all time on you, because

1197
01:12:55,240 --> 01:12:57,960
I'm making it sound like there's
just no way that you can play 

1198
01:12:57,960 --> 01:13:00,880
this guy. 
But what if I told you that he's

1199
01:13:00,880 --> 01:13:04,000
playing against what could 
potentially be one of the worst 

1200
01:13:04,000 --> 01:13:06,560
rushing defenses in the league 
this week? 

1201
01:13:07,480 --> 01:13:11,240
The same one that just gave up 
four touchdowns to Alvin Kamara,

1202
01:13:11,800 --> 01:13:15,080
the Dallas Cowboys. 
R.E.M. 

1203
01:13:15,080 --> 01:13:20,240
Are the cowboy like you're 
you're closer to it than I am? 

1204
01:13:20,240 --> 01:13:21,760
Are the Are the Cowboys that 
bad? 

1205
01:13:22,640 --> 01:13:25,480
I mean, they just look like they
have the same old problems that 

1206
01:13:25,480 --> 01:13:28,480
they've had on defense for the 
last couple years, which is they

1207
01:13:28,480 --> 01:13:31,320
cannot stop a Nosebleed in the 
running game like it. 

1208
01:13:32,160 --> 01:13:37,360
And and it's it's almost as 
someone who's watched like every

1209
01:13:37,360 --> 01:13:41,160
Cowboy snap for the last couple 
years, you can almost kind of 

1210
01:13:41,160 --> 01:13:47,800
like feel it like when when the 
team starts losing to the run 

1211
01:13:47,800 --> 01:13:50,840
game, like you, if you watch the
playoffs crumble, Yeah. 

1212
01:13:50,840 --> 01:13:53,360
If you watch the playoffs 
against the Vikings last year 

1213
01:13:53,360 --> 01:13:58,760
where Aaron or sorry, you mean, 
yeah, where Aaron Jones was just

1214
01:13:58,840 --> 01:14:02,720
absolutely decimating them, like
you could kind of see them get 

1215
01:14:02,720 --> 01:14:05,440
deflated. 
And that's that's happened, you 

1216
01:14:05,440 --> 01:14:07,360
know, for a while for the 
Cowboys. 

1217
01:14:07,360 --> 01:14:12,240
And so I mean, watching Dusty 
Alvin Kamara just take it to him

1218
01:14:13,840 --> 01:14:18,560
really makes me think this might
be an offense or a defense to 

1219
01:14:18,560 --> 01:14:23,360
target on the ground. 
And so I mean, if there's one 

1220
01:14:23,360 --> 01:14:26,920
spot where Derrick Henry can 
look like vintage Derrick Henry,

1221
01:14:26,920 --> 01:14:30,560
where he's ripping off the big 
80 yard touchdown runs and just.

1222
01:14:31,800 --> 01:14:36,640
I know you're kind of like the 
spawn and sort of like semi 

1223
01:14:36,640 --> 01:14:39,680
Cowboys fan. 
Are are the Cowboys really in 

1224
01:14:39,680 --> 01:14:43,920
that category where like they're
in with the Carolina Panthers, 

1225
01:14:43,920 --> 01:14:48,360
are in with the Rams, where like
this is truly just a God awful 

1226
01:14:48,360 --> 01:14:50,560
run defense? 
The Colonels I should say. 

1227
01:14:50,800 --> 01:14:53,520
I don't know that they're like 
probably all the way as bad as 

1228
01:14:53,600 --> 01:14:55,400
the pants. 
Maybe below average? 

1229
01:14:55,800 --> 01:14:59,000
They're definitely below. 
I would be very confident in 

1230
01:14:59,000 --> 01:15:00,480
saying that they're below 
average, yeah. 

1231
01:15:01,360 --> 01:15:08,120
And so with the Ravens, so then 
with the Ravens being good and 

1232
01:15:09,280 --> 01:15:11,760
like this could be a bounce back
spot for the Cowboys. 

1233
01:15:11,760 --> 01:15:16,840
But and the way the Ravens win, 
you think, is by like running 

1234
01:15:16,840 --> 01:15:20,640
Derrick Henry down their throat.
Yeah, the Cowboys have a pretty 

1235
01:15:20,640 --> 01:15:23,840
decent pass defense. 
I mean, not evidenced by the, 

1236
01:15:24,480 --> 01:15:27,440
you know, absolute nuke that 
Derek Carr put up on him with 

1237
01:15:27,440 --> 01:15:29,560
the the Rashid Shahid long 
touchdown again. 

1238
01:15:29,560 --> 01:15:32,640
But again, that was just like a 
little bit of efficiency and 

1239
01:15:32,640 --> 01:15:34,360
then they just ran the ball down
their throats. 

1240
01:15:34,360 --> 01:15:38,760
And so, I mean, the other thing 
is this game could set up to be 

1241
01:15:38,760 --> 01:15:41,440
really fun because the Cowboys 
will run a lot of plays. 

1242
01:15:41,440 --> 01:15:44,840
You know, if they especially 
like, if you can get them 

1243
01:15:44,840 --> 01:15:47,440
behind, if Derrick Henry can get
up early on them. 

1244
01:15:47,840 --> 01:15:50,200
And then the Ravens are more 
incentivized to run and just 

1245
01:15:50,200 --> 01:15:52,720
keep feeding Henry and the 
Cowboys are down and they're 

1246
01:15:52,720 --> 01:15:55,800
going to pass a lot. 
Like man, you can have a pretty 

1247
01:15:55,800 --> 01:16:00,600
fun game here and an interesting
way to play it where I don't 

1248
01:16:00,600 --> 01:16:03,280
think a ton of people are super 
excited to play Derrick Henry 

1249
01:16:03,640 --> 01:16:06,920
after the first two weeks. 
I I love this comment. 

1250
01:16:07,160 --> 01:16:11,240
He has zero contingent value. 
It's like completely correct 

1251
01:16:11,320 --> 01:16:14,480
with his new value. 
Also comes with 0 contingent 

1252
01:16:14,480 --> 01:16:19,640
value, but you also don't want 
your second 2-3 turn pick to 

1253
01:16:19,640 --> 01:16:24,360
need contingent value. 
I think I think that was more in

1254
01:16:24,360 --> 01:16:27,760
response to like comparing him 
to David Montgomery because in 

1255
01:16:27,760 --> 01:16:30,960
the event where David 
Montgomery's contingent value is

1256
01:16:30,960 --> 01:16:35,200
incredible, right when if Jamir 
gives this his time, like I'm 

1257
01:16:35,200 --> 01:16:38,360
absolutely David Montgomery over
Derrick Henry, you know, and 

1258
01:16:38,360 --> 01:16:41,160
twice on Sundays. 
So I think that was more the 

1259
01:16:41,160 --> 01:16:43,440
point and and that's kind of 
what I'm getting at. 

1260
01:16:43,440 --> 01:16:47,200
It is just like the price in 
basketball was never reasonable.

1261
01:16:47,200 --> 01:16:49,360
Right, right. 
I'm like I'm I'm agreeing with 

1262
01:16:49,360 --> 01:16:51,920
the point. 
It's also just a really funny. 

1263
01:16:51,920 --> 01:16:53,440
Way to frame it, yes. 
Yeah. 

1264
01:16:54,360 --> 01:16:56,640
OK, let's go back to the 
efficiency charts. 

1265
01:16:58,120 --> 01:17:00,120
The second one. 
Yeah, let's let's get to the 

1266
01:17:00,120 --> 01:17:02,240
second one here. 
I feel like a lot of the other 

1267
01:17:02,240 --> 01:17:05,000
guys on the first one we either 
touched on in the volume chart 

1268
01:17:05,000 --> 01:17:07,400
or or not too much change week 
over week. 

1269
01:17:09,120 --> 01:17:12,160
The other guy I wanted to touch 
on here, just Jordan Mason with 

1270
01:17:12,200 --> 01:17:16,400
CMC going to IR Devo. 
You know, missing multiple games

1271
01:17:16,400 --> 01:17:21,800
is what it's currently looking 
like, man Jordan Mason just 

1272
01:17:21,800 --> 01:17:24,880
looking like the absolute smash 
of all smashes and basketball 

1273
01:17:24,880 --> 01:17:27,040
drafts. 
If you got Jordan Mason teams, 

1274
01:17:27,040 --> 01:17:28,520
you've got to be happy about 
that. 

1275
01:17:29,000 --> 01:17:32,160
The one caveat that I want to 
like the little cold water I 

1276
01:17:32,160 --> 01:17:34,920
want to throw on it. 
I guess there's two caveats. 

1277
01:17:36,080 --> 01:17:39,520
Number one, I think the 49ers 
offense might be a little worse.

1278
01:17:39,600 --> 01:17:41,560
They're missing demo Samuel, 
they're missing Christian 

1279
01:17:41,560 --> 01:17:44,640
McCaffrey. 
They might not be the same super

1280
01:17:44,640 --> 01:17:46,160
high-powered offense we're used 
to. 

1281
01:17:46,440 --> 01:17:47,960
I still think they're going to 
be functional. 

1282
01:17:47,960 --> 01:17:51,200
They have, you know, like Kyle 
Shanahan is a good, he's a good 

1283
01:17:51,200 --> 01:17:53,560
coach. 
Like it's gonna, he's gonna find

1284
01:17:53,560 --> 01:17:56,680
a way to make it work. 
The other thing, though, is if 

1285
01:17:56,680 --> 01:18:01,280
the 49ers find themselves 
trailing, Mason is not super 

1286
01:18:01,280 --> 01:18:04,000
involved in the passing game. 
Like, if you look at his 

1287
01:18:04,000 --> 01:18:06,320
expected fantasy points here, 
it's pretty much all coming to 

1288
01:18:06,320 --> 01:18:07,720
the ground. 
So. 

1289
01:18:07,720 --> 01:18:10,480
Right, he he's running, he he's 
out there running routes. 

1290
01:18:10,840 --> 01:18:13,480
But it's like, hey, do you want 
to throw it to George Kittle, 

1291
01:18:13,840 --> 01:18:16,960
right, Brandon Iuke, or you want
to throw it to Jordan Mason? 

1292
01:18:16,960 --> 01:18:20,240
It's it's the answer is usually 
not to throw it to Jordan Mason.

1293
01:18:20,680 --> 01:18:23,720
Yeah, I mean, even if use check 
is on the field running a route 

1294
01:18:23,720 --> 01:18:26,680
like I would, I would probably 
wager that use check is more 

1295
01:18:26,680 --> 01:18:30,280
likely to get the the ball than 
Mason, you know, provided all 

1296
01:18:30,280 --> 01:18:35,040
things are equal between them. 
So my caveat would be if if the 

1297
01:18:35,040 --> 01:18:38,080
Niners are going into what could
be a really tough game script, 

1298
01:18:38,080 --> 01:18:39,720
you know, they're they're 
playing against either A-Team 

1299
01:18:39,720 --> 01:18:43,000
that's a lead at stopping the 
run, which might not matter 

1300
01:18:43,000 --> 01:18:46,480
because, you know, you said that
The Jets are are one of the best

1301
01:18:46,480 --> 01:18:50,160
runs stopping defenses, you 
know, really high success rate 

1302
01:18:50,160 --> 01:18:54,080
against the run. 49ers did not 
give a shit about that, right? 

1303
01:18:54,080 --> 01:18:57,480
Jordan Mason ran all over him. 
So maybe it doesn't matter. 

1304
01:18:58,240 --> 01:19:01,400
I I think where it matters most 
is if the 49ers are playing an 

1305
01:19:01,400 --> 01:19:04,880
explosive offense and they might
just get too behind to really 

1306
01:19:04,880 --> 01:19:07,880
even be able to run. 
So that's a little cold water on

1307
01:19:07,880 --> 01:19:13,600
Mason, more of like a weekly, 
you know, DFS or battle Royale 

1308
01:19:13,600 --> 01:19:17,400
kind of lens to view it through.
You know if you've got them in a

1309
01:19:17,400 --> 01:19:20,680
home league or you know a a 
managed league, you're probably 

1310
01:19:20,680 --> 01:19:23,320
starting in most weeks unless 
you got some really good 

1311
01:19:23,520 --> 01:19:26,160
options. 
Right there, there, there. 

1312
01:19:26,160 --> 01:19:31,000
There's some downside there is 
what you're saying, even with 

1313
01:19:31,000 --> 01:19:36,880
the work horse role for him. 
OK, the last thing I wanted to 

1314
01:19:36,880 --> 01:19:41,000
do on these running back 
efficiency charts, and we'll 

1315
01:19:41,000 --> 01:19:44,120
we'll ultimately need to toggle 
back to the first chart after we

1316
01:19:44,120 --> 01:19:47,800
do it on this one, but I want to
hit you with some rapid fire 

1317
01:19:48,040 --> 01:19:51,800
legendary RV season watch. 
And so we're going to look at 

1318
01:19:51,800 --> 01:19:54,840
all the guys that are right 
about that 20 or more expected 

1319
01:19:54,840 --> 01:19:57,760
fantasy points threshold. 
And I just want you to really 

1320
01:19:57,760 --> 01:20:01,440
quick hit me with a yes or no if
you think that a legendary 

1321
01:20:01,440 --> 01:20:03,160
season is on the table for these
guys. 

1322
01:20:03,160 --> 01:20:07,280
So Kyron Williams. 
Not with the injuries, I don't 

1323
01:20:07,280 --> 01:20:10,320
think. 
I think it was always like he's 

1324
01:20:10,320 --> 01:20:15,640
he's, he's a fine player, but I 
think some of his legendary 

1325
01:20:15,640 --> 01:20:19,440
season case was always on the 
offense being good and then 

1326
01:20:19,680 --> 01:20:21,600
some, some of that being 
funneling to him. 

1327
01:20:22,160 --> 01:20:26,520
It's, it's, it's hard to see a 
legendary season for him in that

1328
01:20:26,600 --> 01:20:28,440
in the context of all the 
injuries. 

1329
01:20:29,280 --> 01:20:31,880
Yeah, and you mentioned earlier 
a really good point about 

1330
01:20:32,160 --> 01:20:35,520
efficiency is is part of a 
legendary season and you can 

1331
01:20:35,520 --> 01:20:38,240
look at his his little tiny 
bubble and he has not been very 

1332
01:20:38,240 --> 01:20:40,800
efficient so far. 
You know, long season, there's 

1333
01:20:40,800 --> 01:20:43,360
time for that to change. 
But I definitely think I fall on

1334
01:20:43,360 --> 01:20:45,040
on your side there. 
All right. 

1335
01:20:45,080 --> 01:20:47,000
Don't they? 
Don't they have online injuries?

1336
01:20:47,200 --> 01:20:50,040
Yeah, they have like their two 
best receivers are injured. 

1337
01:20:50,440 --> 01:20:52,640
Yeah, it's. 
Like it's it, that's that sounds

1338
01:20:52,640 --> 01:20:54,760
pretty rough to me. 
Yeah, OK. 

1339
01:20:54,760 --> 01:20:56,840
Breece Hall. 
Yeah, of course. 

1340
01:20:57,840 --> 01:21:03,480
Saquon Barkley. 
And I, I think maybe this is 

1341
01:21:03,480 --> 01:21:08,160
controversial, but I think that 
he has a legendary first month 

1342
01:21:08,160 --> 01:21:10,200
of the season. 
And. 

1343
01:21:11,280 --> 01:21:13,840
But it's real. 
It's really tough for me to see 

1344
01:21:13,840 --> 01:21:16,520
him having a legendary last 
month of the season. 

1345
01:21:17,560 --> 01:21:20,480
It's just for me, so much of it 
comes down to the touchdown 

1346
01:21:20,480 --> 01:21:23,040
stuff. 
Like right now, it looks like 

1347
01:21:23,040 --> 01:21:25,920
how they're using him as a 
receiver is basically the same 

1348
01:21:25,920 --> 01:21:30,360
way they use Swift, which like 
Barkley looks better than Swift.

1349
01:21:30,400 --> 01:21:32,480
You know we can. 
He's a better receiver, he's got

1350
01:21:32,480 --> 01:21:35,920
good receiving skills, which is 
definitely, to his credit, to 

1351
01:21:35,920 --> 01:21:38,960
his favor. 
It's just the role as far as the

1352
01:21:38,960 --> 01:21:42,440
receiving work for the the 
primary back for the Eagles 

1353
01:21:42,720 --> 01:21:45,520
doesn't through two games, small
sample doesn't look like it's 

1354
01:21:45,520 --> 01:21:47,560
changed. 
OK. 

1355
01:21:47,760 --> 01:21:51,240
And he is playing efficiently 
when you look at the yardage 

1356
01:21:51,240 --> 01:21:55,560
stuff or relatively efficiency 
and and with tanks the O line. 

1357
01:21:56,120 --> 01:21:59,160
And but somebody like he is in 
that older range. 

1358
01:21:59,720 --> 01:22:04,000
And like, I know he's had a 
really good overall career, but 

1359
01:22:04,000 --> 01:22:09,160
in the context of like kind of 
declining metrics for him and in

1360
01:22:09,160 --> 01:22:13,760
prior seasons and then even 
behind the really good online 

1361
01:22:13,840 --> 01:22:17,360
only kind of like I'm like his 
his next Gen. 

1362
01:22:17,360 --> 01:22:25,920
Stats are like pretty still 
pretty like mediocre and and and

1363
01:22:25,920 --> 01:22:29,160
and and him being older it it's 
really hard for me to see him 

1364
01:22:29,200 --> 01:22:33,320
like maintaining a good level of
efficiency that you need. 

1365
01:22:35,000 --> 01:22:39,200
We may have to change the title 
of of this stat chasing the two 

1366
01:22:39,200 --> 01:22:41,600
nerds cope that they didn't 
draft enough Saquon Barkley. 

1367
01:22:43,320 --> 01:22:46,120
OK, next on our legendary RB 
watch Devana Chan. 

1368
01:22:46,800 --> 01:22:48,800
Yeah, Yeah. 
I think we touched on this on 

1369
01:22:48,800 --> 01:22:50,280
the reason why, yes. 
Yeah. 

1370
01:22:50,560 --> 01:22:52,200
All right. 
Let's go to the the previous 

1371
01:22:52,200 --> 01:22:54,960
efficiency chart just for the 
last couple of rounded out. 

1372
01:22:56,640 --> 01:22:59,560
Ramondra Stevenson, we already 
touched on you said probably a 

1373
01:22:59,560 --> 01:23:01,920
no because of the efficiency. 
How about Alvin Kamara? 

1374
01:23:02,880 --> 01:23:13,640
And I mean, I think I, I, I feel
similar to how I do about Saquon

1375
01:23:13,840 --> 01:23:20,120
and where like if you, if you 
look at the long term trends, 

1376
01:23:20,120 --> 01:23:21,760
the efficiency's been down for 
him. 

1377
01:23:22,280 --> 01:23:26,760
And so it's hard for me to see 
that kind of this kind of great 

1378
01:23:26,760 --> 01:23:31,920
efficiency to continue. 
And however, with the with the 

1379
01:23:31,920 --> 01:23:34,120
price that you got him, 
especially on underdog where I 

1380
01:23:34,120 --> 01:23:39,080
think he was cheaper than that 
FFPCFFPC, he was kind of like 

1381
01:23:39,080 --> 01:23:45,840
4-4 rounds, 5th rounds and which
you're, you were getting bites 

1382
01:23:45,840 --> 01:23:47,800
up some good receivers there 
still. 

1383
01:23:48,280 --> 01:23:55,280
And I still, I still, I think I,
I think especially on underdog, 

1384
01:23:55,280 --> 01:23:59,480
he could be a really, really and
and he probably is already 

1385
01:23:59,480 --> 01:24:03,720
locked in as a really high 
advance rate player and and 

1386
01:24:03,720 --> 01:24:07,160
could still get there on FFPC 
with the higher price tag. 

1387
01:24:07,720 --> 01:24:11,480
And, and, and still, I, I mean 
honestly, still make noise in 

1388
01:24:11,480 --> 01:24:16,320
the playoffs and but probably 
not like a one-on-one sort of 

1389
01:24:16,360 --> 01:24:21,880
legendary season, I don't think.
Yeah, yeah, I I think when we 

1390
01:24:21,880 --> 01:24:26,520
look back on the season, he's a 
pretty strong candidate to kind 

1391
01:24:26,520 --> 01:24:29,720
of be in the mold of the Josh 
Jacobs shark jump season. 

1392
01:24:29,880 --> 01:24:34,520
You know, like insane, insane 
advance rate just drags a bunch 

1393
01:24:34,520 --> 01:24:38,720
of teams to the playoffs and 
then, you know, the the age 

1394
01:24:38,720 --> 01:24:40,800
catches up to him. 
What we've seen in the 

1395
01:24:40,800 --> 01:24:45,760
underlying metrics, you know, 
comes home to roost and he's 

1396
01:24:45,760 --> 01:24:47,560
just not able to keep it up in 
the playoffs. 

1397
01:24:47,800 --> 01:24:49,800
All right. 
Last one, Jamir Gibbs. 

1398
01:24:50,120 --> 01:24:52,280
Yeah. 
And there's another one we 

1399
01:24:52,280 --> 01:24:55,840
already talked about, I believe.
Yeah, All right, let's get to 

1400
01:24:55,840 --> 01:24:57,880
the tight end charts. 
Yeah. 

1401
01:24:59,160 --> 01:25:05,120
And here we go. 
And so this is tight end 

1402
01:25:05,120 --> 01:25:10,880
utilization and efficiency. 
And the chart part is what 

1403
01:25:10,880 --> 01:25:13,480
percentage of team dropbacks 
we're running a route. 

1404
01:25:14,000 --> 01:25:16,680
And then for completeness, just 
because it helps us get the full

1405
01:25:16,680 --> 01:25:20,600
picture and what, what does 
their path blocking look like as

1406
01:25:20,600 --> 01:25:22,040
well? 
So then when you combine the 

1407
01:25:22,040 --> 01:25:24,760
two, what percentage of their 
team drop back where they're 

1408
01:25:24,760 --> 01:25:28,600
actually on the field? 
Yeah. 

1409
01:25:28,600 --> 01:25:32,080
So I wanted to start this chart.
I think the best way to look at 

1410
01:25:32,080 --> 01:25:35,880
this tight end chart is I want 
to look at the good, the bad and

1411
01:25:35,880 --> 01:25:37,600
the ugly. 
And so we're going to start with

1412
01:25:37,600 --> 01:25:41,360
the good. 
And the good is I mean first 

1413
01:25:41,360 --> 01:25:46,640
Trey McBride like incredible 
targets for route run good A dot

1414
01:25:47,040 --> 01:25:50,680
even even with you know, Marvin 
Harrison having his big day, 

1415
01:25:50,680 --> 01:25:53,960
like Trey McBride still was 
there as an integral part of the

1416
01:25:53,960 --> 01:25:57,400
offense. 
Like this guy looks like he will

1417
01:25:57,400 --> 01:26:01,520
be either the tight end one or 
tight end 2 for years to come 

1418
01:26:01,640 --> 01:26:04,520
for redraft. 
Yeah, yeah. 

1419
01:26:04,840 --> 01:26:07,080
Incredible tight end pick. 
Incredible tight end, yeah. 

1420
01:26:08,160 --> 01:26:13,800
The next one that this one is I 
think maybe a little murkier, 

1421
01:26:14,040 --> 01:26:17,440
but Hunter Henry sitting here 
with a 25% targets per route run

1422
01:26:17,600 --> 01:26:19,880
pretty good a dot. 
You know, 7 point OA dot. 

1423
01:26:20,320 --> 01:26:25,120
However, his his week two game 
is doing a ton of heavy lifting 

1424
01:26:25,120 --> 01:26:27,680
here, right? 
He was just hyper, hyper 

1425
01:26:27,680 --> 01:26:31,520
targeted, you know, leading 
receiver on the Patriots by a 

1426
01:26:31,520 --> 01:26:33,920
country mile. 
Honestly, if you didn't watch 

1427
01:26:33,920 --> 01:26:37,680
this game, number one, I don't 
blame you #2 go back and watch 

1428
01:26:37,680 --> 01:26:41,800
some of it and just like take a 
look at how the Patriots ran 

1429
01:26:41,800 --> 01:26:44,760
their offense because it was all
Hunter Henry and Ramondre 

1430
01:26:44,760 --> 01:26:47,040
Stevenson. 
Like that was it pretty much. 

1431
01:26:47,040 --> 01:26:51,200
Honestly, the Patriots should 
have won this game, but they 

1432
01:26:51,200 --> 01:26:55,520
just ended up too conservative. 
They really like cost themselves

1433
01:26:55,520 --> 01:26:57,000
the game. 
They probably should have beat 

1434
01:26:57,000 --> 01:26:58,640
the Seahawks if they had just 
been a little bit more 

1435
01:26:58,640 --> 01:27:01,440
aggressive. 
But so anyway. 

1436
01:27:01,480 --> 01:27:09,280
I do wonder, I wonder a little 
bit if like if this is kind of a

1437
01:27:09,280 --> 01:27:17,640
sign that the Seahawks are like 
a tight end funnel because, and 

1438
01:27:17,640 --> 01:27:21,080
maybe maybe I'm not reading, 
maybe I'm reading it wrong, but 

1439
01:27:21,400 --> 01:27:26,400
Hunter Henry has not been like a
25% targets per out run guy. 

1440
01:27:26,680 --> 01:27:30,080
Like for his career, he's been 
kind of closer to like somewhere

1441
01:27:30,080 --> 01:27:33,600
between 12 and 15. 
And then you get the red zone 

1442
01:27:33,600 --> 01:27:36,160
looks and, and and that's how 
you win with Hunter Henry. 

1443
01:27:36,800 --> 01:27:40,440
And, and I'm not saying that 
he's going to go to 12 to 15 

1444
01:27:40,440 --> 01:27:45,000
over the course of the season. 
And but that, that like the 

1445
01:27:45,000 --> 01:27:48,640
Longview stuff there with Henry 
does give me a little bit of 

1446
01:27:48,640 --> 01:27:51,360
pause there. 
And especially with, like you 

1447
01:27:51,360 --> 01:27:55,120
said, we've only had two weeks. 
And then one of those is Week 2,

1448
01:27:55,320 --> 01:28:00,320
which is boosting this a lot. 
And I, I, I, I have a little bit

1449
01:28:00,320 --> 01:28:03,200
more caution there. 
And however with, with, with, 

1450
01:28:03,280 --> 01:28:06,280
with that cost, the cost that 
you paid, you're clearly 

1451
01:28:06,280 --> 01:28:10,040
delighted, clearly delighted. 
And like for for waivers, for 

1452
01:28:10,040 --> 01:28:14,200
example, like he's probably the 
best thing out there by far on 

1453
01:28:14,200 --> 01:28:16,480
waivers right now, like if 
you're in a managed league, 

1454
01:28:16,600 --> 01:28:20,120
right? 
I I don't, I think Hunter Henry 

1455
01:28:20,120 --> 01:28:21,720
was, was drafted. 
Are you? 

1456
01:28:21,720 --> 01:28:22,800
You're talking about like 
you're. 

1457
01:28:22,800 --> 01:28:23,800
Not more. 
Yeah. 

1458
01:28:23,800 --> 01:28:24,720
More homely. 
Yeah. 

1459
01:28:24,760 --> 01:28:27,240
FFPC, he's going to be rostered.
Right. 

1460
01:28:27,240 --> 01:28:33,320
If, if, if you yeah, if you, if 
you're struggling on a tight end

1461
01:28:33,320 --> 01:28:35,960
and unless you have Evan Ingram 
and you need someone to fill in 

1462
01:28:36,400 --> 01:28:38,640
and he he, he's he, he is a 
strong pick up. 

1463
01:28:39,960 --> 01:28:44,720
Yeah, other guys in the good 
category, George Kittle doing 

1464
01:28:44,720 --> 01:28:49,080
his part to really try and help 
the 49ers make up for the lost 

1465
01:28:49,080 --> 01:28:54,080
production from CMC. 
Man, it's it's kind of setting 

1466
01:28:54,080 --> 01:28:58,360
up to be George Kittle monster 
season where Cause a lot of the 

1467
01:28:58,360 --> 01:29:01,880
time the frustrating thing with 
George Kittle historically has 

1468
01:29:01,880 --> 01:29:05,800
been they just don't need him. 
He's not necessary for them to 

1469
01:29:05,800 --> 01:29:10,560
win and hang a ton of points on 
an opponent, but the more key 

1470
01:29:10,720 --> 01:29:14,240
components of the offense that 
go down, the more necessary 

1471
01:29:14,240 --> 01:29:16,640
George Kittle becomes. 
And I mean whenever. 

1472
01:29:16,640 --> 01:29:18,840
He's very important. 
George Kittle is this. 

1473
01:29:18,880 --> 01:29:21,800
This offense almost has to run 
to George Kittle this week. 

1474
01:29:22,120 --> 01:29:26,160
Yeah, and, and whenever he's 
called on, like I, I, you know, 

1475
01:29:26,200 --> 01:29:28,520
I don't remember many games 
where George Kittle's getting a 

1476
01:29:28,520 --> 01:29:30,680
lot of targets where he's not 
doing something with him. 

1477
01:29:30,680 --> 01:29:34,760
Like the guy's a baller. 
So George, George Kittle, the 

1478
01:29:35,120 --> 01:29:38,040
the trend is upward here. 
It's going to be fun to watch 

1479
01:29:38,040 --> 01:29:40,920
him here while the 49ers weapons
are diminished. 

1480
01:29:43,560 --> 01:29:48,040
And then the last guy that I had
in the good category and 

1481
01:29:48,040 --> 01:29:52,080
honestly good is not kind enough
for this guy because in my 

1482
01:29:52,080 --> 01:29:56,480
opinion, this is the the tight 
end one overall rest of season 

1483
01:29:56,520 --> 01:30:00,320
is Brock Bowers 27% targets per 
route run. 

1484
01:30:00,480 --> 01:30:03,600
And this ain't no Hunter Henry 
like, oh, he did it all from one

1485
01:30:03,600 --> 01:30:05,480
big game. 
You know where he got a bunch of

1486
01:30:05,480 --> 01:30:09,280
targets, force fed them thing 
like no, Brock Bowers is just 

1487
01:30:09,600 --> 01:30:13,240
getting targets and look at how 
many routes he's running. 

1488
01:30:13,280 --> 01:30:18,880
He's not like he ran you know 
what 65% of the routes like so 

1489
01:30:19,920 --> 01:30:23,200
and believe. 
Me 65% of the routes and then 

1490
01:30:23,200 --> 01:30:30,600
35% target threat run last game 
and 71% over the average of the 

1491
01:30:30,600 --> 01:30:34,720
two games, 27% targets per at 
run and over the average. 

1492
01:30:35,080 --> 01:30:39,240
And but like it, it, it, it 
what's crazy is that he's 

1493
01:30:39,240 --> 01:30:43,840
already the like and he's 
already one of the top five. 

1494
01:30:43,920 --> 01:30:49,000
Like he's I, I don't know, top 
five in in scoring already and 

1495
01:30:49,040 --> 01:30:52,560
in in just the last two. 
And then you do you do kind of 

1496
01:30:52,560 --> 01:30:55,040
like the mental adjustment for 
like, OK, he's a rookie. 

1497
01:30:55,360 --> 01:30:58,480
So they're actually going to 
ramp up his workload. 

1498
01:30:58,880 --> 01:31:01,280
They're going to ramp up the 
routes he's he's running. 

1499
01:31:01,280 --> 01:31:04,040
They're probably going to add 
more variety to the routes that 

1500
01:31:04,040 --> 01:31:07,160
he's running. 
And then by the end of this, by 

1501
01:31:07,240 --> 01:31:14,120
by week 17, it could just be 
like it could just goodbye like 

1502
01:31:14,560 --> 01:31:18,160
it they're they're this this is 
this is probably a Week 2 of 

1503
01:31:18,160 --> 01:31:21,680
reaction as well, but doesn't 
feel like it where like he could

1504
01:31:21,680 --> 01:31:26,360
be like he he could just by next
year when we're doing redraft on

1505
01:31:26,560 --> 01:31:31,000
FPC or our best ball and FPC, 
he's probably a top tree pick. 

1506
01:31:31,360 --> 01:31:35,800
Oh, he's he's the one O 1 next 
year on FFPC probably, yeah. 

1507
01:31:36,160 --> 01:31:38,160
I'll, I'll just I'll. 
That's that's what I. 

1508
01:31:38,160 --> 01:31:42,080
I'll say it if you won't. 
OK, I, I'm glad I that's what I 

1509
01:31:42,080 --> 01:31:44,760
had in my heart. 
And, and, and I, I appreciate 

1510
01:31:44,760 --> 01:31:47,760
that you had the braveness, the 
courage to actually say it. 

1511
01:31:48,320 --> 01:31:52,320
Because look, here's here's what
the other part of it too, is the

1512
01:31:52,320 --> 01:31:56,440
Raiders this week. 
So week one, I was so extremely 

1513
01:31:56,440 --> 01:31:59,400
frustrated with the Raiders 
because they just made many, 

1514
01:31:59,400 --> 01:32:03,320
many donkey mistakes, right? 
Like it, it was, it did not look

1515
01:32:03,320 --> 01:32:04,640
good. 
But this week they actually 

1516
01:32:04,640 --> 01:32:06,640
threw the ball like they were 
willing to pass. 

1517
01:32:06,640 --> 01:32:08,000
They had a really high pass 
rate. 

1518
01:32:09,080 --> 01:32:13,080
And so I was, I was a little 
encouraged there and they got 

1519
01:32:13,080 --> 01:32:15,520
the ball for their best players 
like Devante Adams and Brock 

1520
01:32:15,520 --> 01:32:18,280
Bowers both ate. 
And that was basically it. 

1521
01:32:18,280 --> 01:32:20,720
Like they just like, these are 
our best players. 

1522
01:32:21,040 --> 01:32:23,160
If we want to win the game, we 
got to get into the ball. 

1523
01:32:23,160 --> 01:32:27,320
So I I'm like a little bit 
encouraged by the Raiders not 

1524
01:32:27,320 --> 01:32:31,560
being total donkeys. 
I think, I think they definitely

1525
01:32:31,560 --> 01:32:35,280
are not like they're not as 
sharp as some, some of the 

1526
01:32:35,280 --> 01:32:37,920
sharper teams out there, but I 
also don't think that they're 

1527
01:32:38,280 --> 01:32:40,000
like the. 
Their coaches don't lose the 

1528
01:32:40,000 --> 01:32:42,200
game for them. 
Yeah, yeah. 

1529
01:32:42,920 --> 01:32:43,920
And. 
Well, they did. 

1530
01:32:43,920 --> 01:32:48,320
They did in week. 
One, but we had a question here,

1531
01:32:48,400 --> 01:32:50,720
are we buying the pass rate over
expected? 

1532
01:32:51,880 --> 01:32:53,920
I mean, I think you kind of have
to. 

1533
01:32:54,840 --> 01:33:01,200
And yeah, so they had a 71% pass
rate or, sorry, over two games, 

1534
01:33:01,200 --> 01:33:07,400
6% over expected. 
And it's like they did say over 

1535
01:33:07,400 --> 01:33:10,480
the offseason that the plan was 
to establish the run. 

1536
01:33:11,280 --> 01:33:14,800
But then you look at the box 
that they have, which is. 

1537
01:33:14,800 --> 01:33:19,880
What are their names? 
Alexander, Madison, Zamir White.

1538
01:33:20,120 --> 01:33:22,640
Yeah, yeah, I know the names. 
I'm bad with names, though. 

1539
01:33:22,920 --> 01:33:26,360
And and then you look at the 
receivers they have, which is 

1540
01:33:26,360 --> 01:33:31,880
Devante Adams and Brock Bears, 
and it's like maybe passing is 

1541
01:33:31,920 --> 01:33:35,440
actually how they win, how they 
move the ball, and that's how 

1542
01:33:35,440 --> 01:33:40,360
they look at it. 
So yeah, I think you have to 

1543
01:33:40,480 --> 01:33:42,720
tentatively buy it. 
Yeah. 

1544
01:33:42,720 --> 01:33:45,600
I mean, the reason I'm willing 
to buy it is I just needed to 

1545
01:33:45,600 --> 01:33:47,400
see it from. 
I needed to see that they were 

1546
01:33:47,400 --> 01:33:49,880
willing to do it, that's all. 
You know, like against the 

1547
01:33:49,880 --> 01:33:52,360
Ravens, too. 
'Cause they're gonna, this is 

1548
01:33:52,360 --> 01:33:53,960
the thing. 
Like they're gonna have to do 

1549
01:33:53,960 --> 01:33:58,920
it, you know, like how else if 
pretend that the Raiders like 

1550
01:33:58,920 --> 01:34:01,200
truly in their heart of hearts 
want to run the ball. 

1551
01:34:01,440 --> 01:34:04,520
And so they maybe a couple weeks
down the road, they get away 

1552
01:34:04,520 --> 01:34:06,920
from the Pat, They're they're 
really feeling themselves, 

1553
01:34:06,960 --> 01:34:08,440
right. 
And they're like, we're going to

1554
01:34:08,440 --> 01:34:11,360
go into this game, we're going 
to establish it and dominate 

1555
01:34:11,360 --> 01:34:14,400
them out of the gate. 
And when that doesn't work, like

1556
01:34:14,400 --> 01:34:18,680
at least now I know that they 
know like, Oh yeah, we can 

1557
01:34:18,680 --> 01:34:22,360
always just throw the ball. 
So that's that's the thing that 

1558
01:34:22,360 --> 01:34:25,320
I'm looking at. 
And what's really fun as well is

1559
01:34:25,320 --> 01:34:27,760
like minshew being like fun bad 
Minshew. 

1560
01:34:30,120 --> 01:34:34,320
Yeah, yeah, Minshew. 
Minshew is doing what he did in 

1561
01:34:34,320 --> 01:34:37,080
Indianapolis, right where he's 
like, I know to throw the ball 

1562
01:34:37,080 --> 01:34:39,040
for the best guy, I'm just going
to do that. 

1563
01:34:39,600 --> 01:34:42,240
So it's like, all right, cool. 
That's all we need you to do to 

1564
01:34:42,320 --> 01:34:46,080
just drive the bus, Gardner. 
Just we have we have Mr. Big 

1565
01:34:46,080 --> 01:34:50,360
Time who finally come in to 
listen to the show again, say, 

1566
01:34:50,480 --> 01:34:55,480
oh, I designed this chart. 
I now, I mean, to be fair, I do 

1567
01:34:55,480 --> 01:34:57,640
think that you made some 
improvements to this chart, 

1568
01:34:57,640 --> 01:34:59,120
Rico, so. 
Right. 

1569
01:34:59,120 --> 01:35:02,440
I made I made the improvements 
to the content and then you made

1570
01:35:02,440 --> 01:35:04,560
it look better. 
Like, let's let's be honest 

1571
01:35:04,560 --> 01:35:06,920
here. 
But but yes, we can. 

1572
01:35:07,240 --> 01:35:10,840
We can throw Sam a bone here. 
You know, the original, original

1573
01:35:10,840 --> 01:35:13,440
concept. 
You know, he gave us a, He gave 

1574
01:35:13,440 --> 01:35:16,360
us a. 
Great version one version one 

1575
01:35:16,360 --> 01:35:19,000
that credits Sam Sherman. 
Absolutely. 

1576
01:35:19,680 --> 01:35:25,840
OK, so those are the good on 
this chart. 011 other one that 

1577
01:35:26,000 --> 01:35:27,800
you know he's he's popping in 
the targets. 

1578
01:35:28,000 --> 01:35:30,000
Well, two guys. 
I don't want to spend very much 

1579
01:35:30,000 --> 01:35:33,200
time on one of them. 
Brenton Strange huge A dot, huge

1580
01:35:33,200 --> 01:35:36,280
targets per route run. 
You had a good note about this 

1581
01:35:36,280 --> 01:35:38,360
though that the stats might be 
lying to us. 

1582
01:35:38,360 --> 01:35:45,880
Can you expand on that? 
The so the the backup bam, 

1583
01:35:45,880 --> 01:35:47,400
what's his name? 
Strange. 

1584
01:35:47,600 --> 01:35:53,080
And where he had 7 targets, he 
had like this plus 770% / 70% 

1585
01:35:53,800 --> 01:36:01,960
route run and then like 17A dot 
like 27% and targets per run. 

1586
01:36:03,440 --> 01:36:09,160
So I, I should give credit here 
where, where it's due and call 

1587
01:36:09,160 --> 01:36:12,040
Dvor check. 
He when I I sent him to this, I 

1588
01:36:12,040 --> 01:36:15,520
sent him these these kind of 
stats when we're working on a 

1589
01:36:15,520 --> 01:36:20,960
manage waivers this morning and 
he watched every route and and 

1590
01:36:21,120 --> 01:36:23,160
he said that, yeah, he doesn't 
look good. 

1591
01:36:23,920 --> 01:36:28,920
And and so he was a yeah, he 
was, I think it was a second 

1592
01:36:28,920 --> 01:36:32,560
round pick in 23. 
And he's this kind of Uber 

1593
01:36:32,560 --> 01:36:37,640
athlete from Penn State, but he 
wasn't really a receiver there. 

1594
01:36:37,640 --> 01:36:42,800
He was a blocker. 
So good information there. 

1595
01:36:42,840 --> 01:36:47,600
I think the kind of net net is 
we should probably shouldn't 

1596
01:36:47,600 --> 01:36:53,080
consider him like an actual good
tight end, but especially in 

1597
01:36:53,080 --> 01:36:56,840
tight end premium, he is like 
probably one of the strongest 

1598
01:36:56,840 --> 01:37:02,560
tight end pickups of the year. 
And I don't know how to buy in 

1599
01:37:02,560 --> 01:37:04,240
too much. 
I don't want to buy in too much 

1600
01:37:04,240 --> 01:37:08,320
to this role here. 
And, but like even the routes 

1601
01:37:08,320 --> 01:37:13,400
here are good that the targets 
are good and and until that I 

1602
01:37:13,400 --> 01:37:16,640
guess one of the best targets 
until Evan Ingram comes back, 

1603
01:37:18,080 --> 01:37:21,000
OK. 
The last guy I wanted to touch 

1604
01:37:21,000 --> 01:37:24,160
on who was, you know, still 
still in the good category, but 

1605
01:37:24,160 --> 01:37:28,000
again, kind of like the Hunter 
Henry numbers getting propped up

1606
01:37:28,000 --> 01:37:30,400
from Week 2. 
The Isaiah Likely numbers are 

1607
01:37:30,400 --> 01:37:33,520
getting majorly propped up from 
Week 1, right? 

1608
01:37:34,440 --> 01:37:37,480
All all of all of the week 1 
cope of likely is kind of 

1609
01:37:37,480 --> 01:37:40,560
getting proven right. 
Yeah, now he didn't all the way 

1610
01:37:40,560 --> 01:37:45,720
turn back into a pumpkin, right?
But it's just it's looking more 

1611
01:37:45,720 --> 01:37:49,920
like, Oh yeah, this guy is the 
the backup tight end for the 

1612
01:37:49,920 --> 01:37:53,160
Ravens, or he is. 
He's the third pass catcher for 

1613
01:37:53,160 --> 01:37:56,920
the Ravens, which again, has 
never been something. 

1614
01:37:56,920 --> 01:38:01,840
Yeah, I'm not excited about he 
had a 49% and RAP run. 

1615
01:38:02,240 --> 01:38:07,720
He had a 17% targets per out run
in the last game. 

1616
01:38:08,080 --> 01:38:14,080
So like those are like solid 
outcomes for likely and but like

1617
01:38:14,080 --> 01:38:17,680
you said, he didn't become not a
backup tight end, still a backup

1618
01:38:17,680 --> 01:38:19,360
tight end. 
Yeah. 

1619
01:38:20,440 --> 01:38:23,800
OK, let's get to the bad. 
All right. 

1620
01:38:24,080 --> 01:38:28,640
First, Kyle Pitts, I mean, week 
one, we were really excited. 

1621
01:38:28,640 --> 01:38:31,560
He had 100% of routes run. 
That was really cool. 

1622
01:38:32,480 --> 01:38:34,960
But he just hadn't, he wasn't 
earning targets. 

1623
01:38:35,000 --> 01:38:39,080
We were hopeful that maybe that 
could turn around, but man, 

1624
01:38:39,120 --> 01:38:44,440
watching the Monday night game 
and just wondering why Ray Ray 

1625
01:38:44,440 --> 01:38:49,320
McLeod was getting just peppered
with targets over and over and 

1626
01:38:49,320 --> 01:38:51,800
Kyle Pitts could not get a 
target to save his life. 

1627
01:38:52,880 --> 01:38:55,440
A little frustrating as a Kyle 
Pitts owner. 

1628
01:38:55,800 --> 01:39:01,800
So it's it's just you got to 
wonder like, is this just a a 

1629
01:39:01,800 --> 01:39:04,200
blip? 
Is he going to earn more targets

1630
01:39:04,200 --> 01:39:07,000
as the season goes on? 
I think with Kyle Pitts, people 

1631
01:39:07,000 --> 01:39:11,360
are just so quick to react and 
say, Oh my gosh, it's more of 

1632
01:39:11,360 --> 01:39:13,320
the same. 
I got rugged on Kyle Pitts 

1633
01:39:13,320 --> 01:39:15,240
again. 
But what's your read on this? 

1634
01:39:16,040 --> 01:39:19,240
And I'm, I'm still, I'm have 
honestly, I'm having a tough 

1635
01:39:19,240 --> 01:39:23,280
time reading it. 
And with the the kind of 

1636
01:39:23,280 --> 01:39:27,360
preseason reports of him not 
being in shape and then all 

1637
01:39:27,360 --> 01:39:35,200
being short targets and short a 
dot targets, I think even the 

1638
01:39:35,200 --> 01:39:38,720
biggest car pits Bull in your 
heart of hearts, when you first 

1639
01:39:38,720 --> 01:39:43,800
started thinking about Carl 
Pitts as an NFL guy, the the 

1640
01:39:43,840 --> 01:39:48,160
thesis was not that he's going 
to get a lot of short targets. 

1641
01:39:48,160 --> 01:39:50,680
It's like, no, this guy is 
basically basically a wide 

1642
01:39:50,680 --> 01:39:53,120
receiver with tight end 
designation. 

1643
01:39:53,840 --> 01:39:58,920
And it's that part is not 
feeling, not seeming to be true 

1644
01:39:59,320 --> 01:40:05,040
and anymore and. 
Well, it depends on the which 

1645
01:40:05,040 --> 01:40:09,120
wide receiver you think he is. 
Like if you you know, if you 

1646
01:40:09,120 --> 01:40:13,480
think that he's like a like a 
Jalen Bute yeah, or Keyshawn 

1647
01:40:13,520 --> 01:40:17,320
Bute, then then yes, he is. 
He's just like a a wide receiver

1648
01:40:19,560 --> 01:40:24,680
now I'm I'm not willing. 
I'm like semi leaving a light on

1649
01:40:24,680 --> 01:40:26,960
for Kyle Pitts. 
I don't want to just throw it in

1650
01:40:26,960 --> 01:40:29,960
the trash right now but like I'm
trending bearish. 

1651
01:40:30,480 --> 01:40:33,840
If I yeah, yeah, that's how I 
feel too, where it's like one of

1652
01:40:33,840 --> 01:40:38,520
those things where it is tough 
to overreact the two weeks of 

1653
01:40:38,520 --> 01:40:44,240
data, but it's also very tough 
to not react to what we've seen 

1654
01:40:44,240 --> 01:40:46,640
here. 
I mean, it's the earn a target 

1655
01:40:46,640 --> 01:40:50,240
over Raven or Cloud or Darnell 
Mooney challenge impossible 

1656
01:40:50,240 --> 01:40:54,760
here, which is just like that 
sounds terrible, you know, So 

1657
01:40:56,280 --> 01:40:59,840
another candidate in the bad 
column here. 

1658
01:41:00,160 --> 01:41:05,200
We've got Kelsey, who, you know,
low, low targets per route run 

1659
01:41:05,200 --> 01:41:09,200
here. 
Is is this just a blip or is it 

1660
01:41:09,480 --> 01:41:11,920
is it a trend? 
Because now the chiefs have 

1661
01:41:12,640 --> 01:41:15,840
actual competent receivers so 
they they don't feel the need to

1662
01:41:15,840 --> 01:41:19,600
just force feed Kelsey. 
So are we seeing the, you know, 

1663
01:41:19,600 --> 01:41:23,080
scaled back Kelsey's usage plan 
right now? 

1664
01:41:23,080 --> 01:41:25,160
Like what? 
What's your read on this? 

1665
01:41:25,680 --> 01:41:34,520
So didn't the nuance to me is 
that it's still like, I mean, 

1666
01:41:34,520 --> 01:41:38,360
you're still talking about 
Travis Kelsey like you still 

1667
01:41:38,360 --> 01:41:42,800
have like what we're what we're 
the the stats that we're seeing 

1668
01:41:42,800 --> 01:41:47,720
right now on Travis Kelsey is 
absolutely fucking garbage. 

1669
01:41:47,920 --> 01:41:53,680
Like these are bad, bad stats. 
And so I think, I think that's 

1670
01:41:53,680 --> 01:41:59,640
probably a mix of and he is a 
little bit older, so maybe not 

1671
01:41:59,640 --> 01:42:04,040
quite as effective to like 
probably a good chunk of it is 

1672
01:42:04,040 --> 01:42:07,560
just weird and small game sample
stuff. 

1673
01:42:08,480 --> 01:42:13,920
And, and, and it's like in a in 
a prior year, you just wouldn't 

1674
01:42:13,920 --> 01:42:17,760
see small game sample stuff 
problems for Kelsey. 

1675
01:42:17,760 --> 01:42:21,560
It's just like, no, he's Travis 
Kelsey smashing and I think over

1676
01:42:21,560 --> 01:42:24,920
over full season you probably 
will see decent or not not 

1677
01:42:24,920 --> 01:42:29,080
decent production at cost, but 
you will see like usable games. 

1678
01:42:29,080 --> 01:42:31,280
It's not going to just be in the
toilet every game. 

1679
01:42:31,960 --> 01:42:40,960
And but with the with the prior 
that he's aging and they're on 

1680
01:42:40,960 --> 01:42:46,120
the start being this slow, it 
like I think you have to at 

1681
01:42:46,240 --> 01:42:48,960
least adjust your expectations 
still. 

1682
01:42:48,960 --> 01:42:52,320
Like maybe he's just a little 
bit older now. 

1683
01:42:52,320 --> 01:42:54,640
He won't be quite as effective. 
He can still be. 

1684
01:42:55,040 --> 01:42:58,880
I think you're still gonna get 
some Travis Kelce games, but 

1685
01:43:00,120 --> 01:43:02,840
it's probably not the same as it
was before. 

1686
01:43:03,760 --> 01:43:08,680
If you want the spin zone 
maximum dose of Kelsey Cope, 

1687
01:43:09,960 --> 01:43:14,800
what we're actually looking at 
is a low advance rate play at 

1688
01:43:14,800 --> 01:43:18,080
its cost. 
But when we're into the fantasy 

1689
01:43:18,080 --> 01:43:22,080
playoffs is when the Chiefs will
really be needing to win games 

1690
01:43:22,080 --> 01:43:26,040
to secure the one seed in the BI
and they'll really be getting 

1691
01:43:26,040 --> 01:43:29,120
Kelsey going and that's when his
usage is going to ramp up. 

1692
01:43:29,680 --> 01:43:31,360
So he's. 
Right, you're, you're right the,

1693
01:43:31,440 --> 01:43:35,360
the, the Chiefs haven't been 
playing close must win games the

1694
01:43:35,400 --> 01:43:39,320
first two games of the year 
against Baltimore and, and the 

1695
01:43:39,320 --> 01:43:41,840
Bengals. 
So they're, they're, they're 

1696
01:43:41,840 --> 01:43:45,360
just leaving him on the shelf. 
Yeah, I said it was cope. 

1697
01:43:45,360 --> 01:43:50,440
I didn't say it was OK. 
Let's see other other guys in 

1698
01:43:50,440 --> 01:43:53,280
the bad category. 
This one I don't need to spend a

1699
01:43:53,280 --> 01:43:55,160
bunch of time on, but just 
wanted to mention him. 

1700
01:43:55,440 --> 01:43:58,240
Dalton Schultz just looks 
unnecessary, right? 

1701
01:43:58,240 --> 01:44:01,600
Like, I mean, shit, Tank Dell is
having trouble getting targets 

1702
01:44:01,600 --> 01:44:02,960
again. 
It's only through two games. 

1703
01:44:02,960 --> 01:44:06,240
I'm not worried about Tank Dell 
at all, for the record, but like

1704
01:44:06,360 --> 01:44:07,640
I'm worried about Dalton 
Schultz. 

1705
01:44:07,640 --> 01:44:10,000
He just, he doesn't look 
necessary in this offense. 

1706
01:44:10,920 --> 01:44:17,760
Yeah. 
And so I, I the routes are 74%. 

1707
01:44:18,240 --> 01:44:22,680
I think that's a that's a fair 
outcome for Schultz and 10% 

1708
01:44:22,680 --> 01:44:26,800
targets per run. 
Again, I think that's actually 

1709
01:44:26,800 --> 01:44:28,880
what you should have projected. 
I think that's pretty close to 

1710
01:44:28,880 --> 01:44:32,400
what you should should have 
projected for Dalton Schultz and

1711
01:44:33,760 --> 01:44:36,400
A dot a .3 pretty close to what 
you should have projected. 

1712
01:44:38,320 --> 01:44:42,000
It seems to me that the Schultz 
play was always about finding 

1713
01:44:42,000 --> 01:44:47,320
the odd touchdown and his his 
price didn't reflect that. 

1714
01:44:47,320 --> 01:44:51,920
Certainly on FFPC, his price did
not reflect a bomb, not bomb 

1715
01:44:52,120 --> 01:44:56,240
like a Jag tight end who needs 
to touchdown to hit your lineup.

1716
01:44:56,800 --> 01:45:03,520
And and to me this is kind of 
what right in line with 

1717
01:45:03,520 --> 01:45:06,720
expectations. 
Yeah, that's fair. 

1718
01:45:06,760 --> 01:45:10,600
Non derogatory. 
One of the other guys in the bad

1719
01:45:10,600 --> 01:45:16,320
category, Sam Laporta. 
If you drafted Sam Laporta in 

1720
01:45:16,320 --> 01:45:19,520
baseball, you're extremely 
disappointed with the price that

1721
01:45:19,520 --> 01:45:25,320
you paid for the guy. 
I mean, I, I kinda, so my thesis

1722
01:45:25,320 --> 01:45:30,200
for why I was lower on a Monroe 
this year was that you've got, 

1723
01:45:30,320 --> 01:45:33,080
you know, the potential 
emergence of Jameson Williams. 

1724
01:45:33,160 --> 01:45:35,720
People are projecting Jamir 
Gibbs to take a step forward. 

1725
01:45:36,200 --> 01:45:40,440
And I was thinking, well, Sam 
LaPorte is also gonna cut in to 

1726
01:45:40,440 --> 01:45:43,920
that a Monroe target share. 
And so far it's, it's gone the 

1727
01:45:43,920 --> 01:45:47,320
other way where Jameson Williams
and Jameer Gibbs definitely have

1728
01:45:47,320 --> 01:45:50,280
seen their roles expand. 
Like I, I think we can say that 

1729
01:45:50,400 --> 01:45:52,320
pretty confidently here going 
forward. 

1730
01:45:53,120 --> 01:45:57,640
But, and Montra saw, you know, 
that hurt him a little bit in 

1731
01:45:57,640 --> 01:46:01,680
week 1, but here in week two, he
just got, you know, 20 targets. 

1732
01:46:01,680 --> 01:46:06,520
So and Sam Laporta has really 
been the victim of you know, 

1733
01:46:06,760 --> 01:46:09,840
just hey, there's only there's a
finite number of targets now 

1734
01:46:10,480 --> 01:46:13,560
granted what did what did the 
the Lions have for total number 

1735
01:46:13,560 --> 01:46:15,480
of pass attempts this week was 
it is some. 

1736
01:46:16,080 --> 01:46:23,240
Well, it was it's been 909090 
attempts, either 90 attempts or 

1737
01:46:23,240 --> 01:46:25,760
90 drop backs. 
Give me a second. 

1738
01:46:27,480 --> 01:46:34,360
But it for per week, but it's 
been it's been it's been high 

1739
01:46:34,360 --> 01:46:40,520
volume for the offense. 
Yeah, 8383 attempts over the two

1740
01:46:40,520 --> 01:46:42,720
games. 
Yeah, certainly high volume for 

1741
01:46:42,720 --> 01:46:46,240
the offense. 
And I, I'm not, I'm not actually

1742
01:46:46,240 --> 01:46:49,120
not worried per SE about 
Laporta. 

1743
01:46:49,760 --> 01:46:58,080
And you're still getting like 
kind of 80% routes, routes run 

1744
01:46:58,080 --> 01:47:04,600
there like I don't, I don't 
think so he's at 10% target for 

1745
01:47:04,600 --> 01:47:06,960
a run for the season. 
I don't, I really don't think it

1746
01:47:06,960 --> 01:47:11,480
settles there. 
And so I think you're, you're 

1747
01:47:11,480 --> 01:47:15,840
probably, this is probably a buy
it a dip moment for Laporta. 

1748
01:47:16,440 --> 01:47:20,480
And like I mentioned, they have 
been really low in terms of 

1749
01:47:20,480 --> 01:47:22,160
getting the touchdowns that they
want. 

1750
01:47:22,680 --> 01:47:25,360
And if they want to improve 
that, I think Laporta has to be 

1751
01:47:25,360 --> 01:47:30,600
part of that. 
And so I, I, I do think there's 

1752
01:47:30,600 --> 01:47:33,760
pretty, there's, it's pretty 
easy to tell the story of how 

1753
01:47:33,760 --> 01:47:38,040
Laporta bounces back. 
I agree with that. 

1754
01:47:38,080 --> 01:47:41,600
Well, we'll put last one in the 
bad category. 

1755
01:47:42,040 --> 01:47:46,280
Mark Andrews who similar targets
per route run to Laporta sitting

1756
01:47:46,280 --> 01:47:50,680
just at 11 percent, you know, 
big, big increase from week 1 

1757
01:47:50,680 --> 01:47:54,880
and his A dots also looking 
pretty good sitting at 9.91 of 

1758
01:47:54,880 --> 01:47:57,040
the highest A dots on the chart 
here. 

1759
01:47:58,560 --> 01:48:02,120
But are you worried about Mark 
Andrews is the little bit that 

1760
01:48:02,120 --> 01:48:05,000
likely, you know, likely he's 
getting 17% targets per route 

1761
01:48:05,000 --> 01:48:08,480
run this week still is that 
concerning for you for Andrews? 

1762
01:48:08,480 --> 01:48:10,640
What do you what do you think 
his outlook is for the rest? 

1763
01:48:10,640 --> 01:48:14,400
Of so Week 2 definitely more 
promising for Andrews where 

1764
01:48:14,720 --> 01:48:18,760
still only like 73% route run, 
route run. 

1765
01:48:19,560 --> 01:48:22,440
I think that that's that has to 
be under what you would have 

1766
01:48:22,440 --> 01:48:27,240
projected, what you would have 
hoped for on Andrews and 19% 

1767
01:48:27,240 --> 01:48:32,160
targets per run and much more 
positive than before, but under 

1768
01:48:32,160 --> 01:48:35,160
what you would have hoped for on
Mark Andrews. 

1769
01:48:35,600 --> 01:48:41,480
So I think you have to be a 
little bit concerned with 

1770
01:48:41,480 --> 01:48:43,000
Andrews. 
It's definitely not the 

1771
01:48:43,000 --> 01:48:52,240
apocalyptic week 1, sort of like
panic, but you have to be, you 

1772
01:48:52,240 --> 01:48:54,880
have to be a little bit 
concerned that even even in in a

1773
01:48:54,880 --> 01:48:58,280
bounce back that it wasn't quite
to where you needed it to be. 

1774
01:48:59,080 --> 01:49:03,400
And but it's it's certainly not 
that. 

1775
01:49:03,720 --> 01:49:06,880
I think the outlook for Andrews 
is probably a little maybe a 

1776
01:49:06,880 --> 01:49:11,400
little bit better than for for 
Kelsey just given that we had a 

1777
01:49:11,400 --> 01:49:18,080
stronger bounce back. 
And but you are you're 

1778
01:49:18,080 --> 01:49:22,200
definitely not in the elite 
tight end usage category here. 

1779
01:49:22,520 --> 01:49:26,480
You're kind of in the mediocre 
like low end tight end one usage

1780
01:49:26,480 --> 01:49:28,480
right now. 
Yeah. 

1781
01:49:28,640 --> 01:49:33,120
And like the other point as well
is so 19% target spread run is 

1782
01:49:33,120 --> 01:49:37,600
like it's fine. 
But when they're only running a 

1783
01:49:37,600 --> 01:49:43,560
limited route set, like that's 
also compounding a little bit as

1784
01:49:43,560 --> 01:49:46,280
well. 
Normally when it's lower there, 

1785
01:49:46,600 --> 01:49:49,920
you expect them to be targeted 
more heavily when they actually 

1786
01:49:49,920 --> 01:49:56,480
do get on the field. 
So yeah, I guess I'm mushy 

1787
01:49:56,480 --> 01:50:01,680
mounted there and like, I'm like
worried. 

1788
01:50:01,680 --> 01:50:07,720
But it's yeah, I think low end, 
tight end 1 is probably a great 

1789
01:50:07,720 --> 01:50:11,960
way to handicap it. 
Yeah, as someone who's one of 

1790
01:50:11,960 --> 01:50:14,480
the highest drafted tight ends 
that I have is Mark Andrews, 

1791
01:50:14,960 --> 01:50:18,200
I'm, I wasn't really worried 
after week 1. 

1792
01:50:19,240 --> 01:50:23,840
After week two, I'm like, and I 
know a lot of people be like, 

1793
01:50:23,840 --> 01:50:25,800
oh, why are you worried? 
Week two got so much better than

1794
01:50:25,800 --> 01:50:28,360
week one. 
I'm just, I'm slightly worried 

1795
01:50:28,560 --> 01:50:31,760
after week two. 
It just seems harder for him to 

1796
01:50:32,640 --> 01:50:36,400
to be the true like Smash where 
he's, you know, returning like 

1797
01:50:36,400 --> 01:50:38,680
one of the best seasons he's had
in his career. 

1798
01:50:40,000 --> 01:50:41,680
It just. 
Seems that that seems off the 

1799
01:50:41,680 --> 01:50:45,160
table unfortunately. 
Yeah, seems, seems at least a 

1800
01:50:45,160 --> 01:50:47,040
lot thinner. 
I don't know that I'm ready to 

1801
01:50:47,040 --> 01:50:48,800
call it totally off the table 
yet. 

1802
01:50:48,800 --> 01:50:52,040
It's just two weeks of data, but
it seems thinner for sure for 

1803
01:50:52,040 --> 01:50:56,360
me. 
All right, the we've gone 

1804
01:50:56,360 --> 01:50:59,080
through the good, we've gone 
through the bad, and now we're 

1805
01:50:59,080 --> 01:51:03,240
to the ugly. 
I had a joke here that I think 

1806
01:51:03,240 --> 01:51:06,360
works a lot better over text, 
but I'm going to say it out loud

1807
01:51:06,360 --> 01:51:09,600
anyway. 
So it's not Dalton Kincaid, it's

1808
01:51:09,600 --> 01:51:15,880
Lalton Kincaid as in lol because
this guy is getting only a 12% 

1809
01:51:15,880 --> 01:51:19,200
targets per route run with 
absolutely no target 

1810
01:51:19,200 --> 01:51:21,640
competition. 
I mean Keon Coleman's out here 

1811
01:51:21,640 --> 01:51:24,400
getting 0 targets. 
You're competing with what 

1812
01:51:24,400 --> 01:51:29,040
Khalil Shakur and Mack Hollins? 
And I mean now granted part of 

1813
01:51:29,040 --> 01:51:33,120
it is the Bills didn't throw a 
ton of passes, but still targets

1814
01:51:33,120 --> 01:51:36,840
per route run is a percentage 
that now also don't so. 

1815
01:51:37,400 --> 01:51:41,600
And and and and. 
To be fair, in Week 2 Kincaid 

1816
01:51:41,600 --> 01:51:44,800
got 27% targets for everyone. 
He did, which brought his 

1817
01:51:44,800 --> 01:51:46,560
targets per route run up 
substantially. 

1818
01:51:46,560 --> 01:51:49,520
Now that number's a little 
misleading because he missed a 

1819
01:51:49,520 --> 01:51:55,120
lot of the game where he it was 
kind of a weird sequence, he so 

1820
01:51:55,600 --> 01:51:57,720
to start. 
They they established Kincaid 

1821
01:51:57,720 --> 01:52:00,080
early. 
Yeah, he gets 2 targets right 

1822
01:52:00,080 --> 01:52:02,200
off the bat. 
They're both negative, A dot, 

1823
01:52:02,200 --> 01:52:03,600
you know, little like 
screenplay. 

1824
01:52:03,600 --> 01:52:05,600
Just get the ball in his hands 
and try and get him to do 

1825
01:52:05,720 --> 01:52:09,440
running through the air with 
Kincaid, you know, and then he 

1826
01:52:09,440 --> 01:52:13,560
gets kneed in the head and goes 
off, misses a couple drives, 

1827
01:52:13,920 --> 01:52:17,160
comes back. 
But by the time he's back, 

1828
01:52:17,480 --> 01:52:20,320
they're really, you know, the 
Bills were ahead and they were 

1829
01:52:20,360 --> 01:52:23,160
they were just running the ball.
So he doesn't get a lot more 

1830
01:52:23,160 --> 01:52:26,560
looks. 
And so, yeah, to to take the the

1831
01:52:26,560 --> 01:52:29,840
mask off as the, you know, 
president of the Dalton Kincaid 

1832
01:52:29,840 --> 01:52:34,120
Hater Club. 
I don't think, you know, like as

1833
01:52:34,120 --> 01:52:36,840
fun as it is to, you know, dunk 
on Dalton Kincaid. 

1834
01:52:36,840 --> 01:52:39,320
Like I would definitely take him
over Dalton Schultz. 

1835
01:52:39,480 --> 01:52:42,520
You know, like I'm absolutely 
like, he's not in the same 

1836
01:52:42,520 --> 01:52:46,280
universe as George Kittle for 
me, or like I would. 

1837
01:52:46,280 --> 01:52:49,080
Definitely take him over Brock 
Wright, certainly. 

1838
01:52:49,520 --> 01:52:54,920
I'd take him over Brock Wright, 
but like, here's here's a fun 

1839
01:52:54,920 --> 01:52:57,520
one. 
This one's actually kind of 

1840
01:52:57,520 --> 01:52:59,400
interesting. 
I think it's Kincaid still. 

1841
01:52:59,400 --> 01:53:01,600
But what do you think about Pat 
Fryer news versus Dalton 

1842
01:53:01,600 --> 01:53:04,920
Kincaid? 
That is Kincaid. 

1843
01:53:05,600 --> 01:53:09,000
Yeah, I I think so too. 
But here's another fun one. 

1844
01:53:09,280 --> 01:53:12,120
Tucker Kraft, who has similar 
targets per route run to Dalton 

1845
01:53:12,120 --> 01:53:15,520
Kincaid, but he has a infinitely
higher A dot. 

1846
01:53:15,520 --> 01:53:17,880
Well, actually it's a, it's a 
negatively higher A dot if we're

1847
01:53:17,920 --> 01:53:21,000
multiplying because Kincaid has 
a negative A dot here. 

1848
01:53:21,520 --> 01:53:26,200
But Tucker craft similar 
situation to Dalton Kincaid as 

1849
01:53:26,200 --> 01:53:30,240
far as his targets for route run
and A dot again I I'm clearly. 

1850
01:53:30,400 --> 01:53:31,880
I, I yeah. 
I mean, it's Kincaid. 

1851
01:53:32,360 --> 01:53:33,400
Yeah. 
Give me a hard one. 

1852
01:53:34,240 --> 01:53:35,800
All right, you want a hard one? 
Let's see. 

1853
01:53:35,800 --> 01:53:37,720
I mean, OK, so here's the 
problem. 

1854
01:53:38,560 --> 01:53:42,400
The the tier that Dalton Kincaid
falls in is like so clearly 

1855
01:53:42,400 --> 01:53:46,000
after all of the other tight 
ends that we would say are 

1856
01:53:46,000 --> 01:53:47,960
actually like good. 
Right, so he's going to get, 

1857
01:53:47,960 --> 01:53:53,560
he's going to get absolutely 
gapped by by Tray McBride and. 

1858
01:53:53,840 --> 01:53:55,560
Here's one. 
Here's one Kyle. 

1859
01:53:55,560 --> 01:54:00,240
Pitts is punishing at his price.
Go ahead. 

1860
01:54:00,320 --> 01:54:02,440
Sorry. 
Kyle Pitts or Dalton Kincaid. 

1861
01:54:04,360 --> 01:54:07,200
Kincaid probably. 
Yeah, for me the answer is 

1862
01:54:07,200 --> 01:54:11,120
neither right like. 
I mean, I, I mean like. 

1863
01:54:11,120 --> 01:54:18,720
So just maybe to play devil's 
advocate here, so the 27% 

1864
01:54:18,720 --> 01:54:26,240
targets per run in Week 2, is 
that like that's a least sign 

1865
01:54:26,240 --> 01:54:29,880
that they that they intend to 
like actually establish Kincaid 

1866
01:54:29,880 --> 01:54:35,120
that they have he's in their 
plans like if Kincaid can place 

1867
01:54:35,120 --> 01:54:38,520
decently, like he's going to get
a lot of targets. 

1868
01:54:39,640 --> 01:54:43,120
And the problem is that he 
hasn't played decently yet. 

1869
01:54:44,160 --> 01:54:48,480
And, and the games, even last 
year, the games where he did 

1870
01:54:48,480 --> 01:54:51,160
play decently were, were like 
not that many. 

1871
01:54:52,800 --> 01:54:56,840
But I, I, I still like if, if 
you were like a, a Dalton 

1872
01:54:56,840 --> 01:55:04,120
Kincaid bowl, I think that the 
like, I think the upside is 

1873
01:55:04,120 --> 01:55:06,200
still like that. 
What what you were playing for 

1874
01:55:06,200 --> 01:55:09,920
is still kind of there. 
It's a little bit tender, but 

1875
01:55:10,520 --> 01:55:12,920
like you can still tell yourself
a story right now because 

1876
01:55:12,920 --> 01:55:18,200
especially it's only Week 2. 
It's honestly the situation is, 

1877
01:55:18,920 --> 01:55:22,840
I mean, not, but like how you're
feeling about it and like the 

1878
01:55:22,880 --> 01:55:27,120
the path to it becoming good for
you is probably not all that 

1879
01:55:27,120 --> 01:55:29,840
different than Mark Andrews, 
right where? 

1880
01:55:30,560 --> 01:55:33,160
Yeah, I, I, I think you're 
probably looking at, you're 

1881
01:55:33,360 --> 01:55:35,800
probably are looking at Silent 
Killer for Kincaid. 

1882
01:55:36,160 --> 01:55:39,400
You're like you're you'll get 
what feels like decent 

1883
01:55:39,400 --> 01:55:45,160
production, but absolutely 
shellacked by Bearers and 

1884
01:55:45,360 --> 01:55:48,800
McBride. 
Yeah, Oh, man, if I could, if I 

1885
01:55:48,800 --> 01:55:51,160
could trade all my Kincaid 
shares for Brock Bowers, I'd do 

1886
01:55:51,320 --> 01:55:55,080
if I could, if you made me trade
2 for one, I've got to take 

1887
01:55:55,080 --> 01:55:58,120
every two Kincaid teams and turn
it into one Bowers team. 

1888
01:55:58,120 --> 01:56:01,000
I'd do it in a heartbeat. 
I'd do it in a heartbeat. 

1889
01:56:01,360 --> 01:56:03,840
If anyone's interested in the 
trade and you've got some Bowers

1890
01:56:03,840 --> 01:56:07,240
teams that you'd like to trade 
some Kincaid teams for, slide 

1891
01:56:07,240 --> 01:56:09,880
into my DMS. 
There you go. 

1892
01:56:09,920 --> 01:56:10,840
That's. 
An interesting one. 

1893
01:56:11,320 --> 01:56:15,240
But no, honestly, in like 
analyzing the Kincaid situation,

1894
01:56:15,240 --> 01:56:17,520
I actually came away more 
bullish after this week. 

1895
01:56:17,520 --> 01:56:19,800
Like if we, if we want to be 
truly honest about it, it's just

1896
01:56:19,800 --> 01:56:22,080
too fun. 
It's too fun to dunk on him. 

1897
01:56:22,080 --> 01:56:27,560
But no, like I, I was encouraged
by by you know, the team clearly

1898
01:56:27,560 --> 01:56:31,200
knows that you know, they're 
they're receiving options are 

1899
01:56:31,200 --> 01:56:33,880
not fantastic and they wanted to
get him involved early. 

1900
01:56:33,880 --> 01:56:40,080
So I'm I'm leaving a light on 
for him, but it's way more fun 

1901
01:56:40,080 --> 01:56:44,400
to be a hater. 
He he he is probably median 

1902
01:56:44,400 --> 01:56:47,760
outcome is some sort of like 
Evan Ingram scam season, right? 

1903
01:56:49,000 --> 01:56:54,560
And we have like we're told that
he's going to flash this 

1904
01:56:54,560 --> 01:56:58,280
brilliant play that we just 
haven't seen yet and we haven't 

1905
01:56:58,280 --> 01:57:00,840
seen it yet. 
So there's still like some hope 

1906
01:57:00,840 --> 01:57:03,120
for that. 
But the most likely outcome is 

1907
01:57:03,120 --> 01:57:04,400
some kind of scam season. 
Yeah. 

1908
01:57:04,520 --> 01:57:06,480
And that's still that feels more
likely now. 

1909
01:57:06,800 --> 01:57:08,360
Yeah, you paid for fancy Evan 
Ingram. 

1910
01:57:11,480 --> 01:57:15,440
Yeah, and. 
Not a ton on the backup. 

1911
01:57:15,440 --> 01:57:17,920
I mean, we can flip to the 
backup tight end chart here real

1912
01:57:17,920 --> 01:57:21,280
quick. 
I don't think there's a ton 

1913
01:57:21,360 --> 01:57:25,920
here. 
I mean, Jonny Smith not not 

1914
01:57:25,920 --> 01:57:28,280
really anything. 
I mean, he's going to get scheme

1915
01:57:28,280 --> 01:57:29,520
touches. 
You're just you're praying for a

1916
01:57:29,520 --> 01:57:31,960
touchdown. 
Jonny Smith is just like a This 

1917
01:57:31,960 --> 01:57:35,280
is a player who's on the field 
that can score a touchdown in 

1918
01:57:35,280 --> 01:57:40,400
offense that's well schemed so. 
And the one that my one take 

1919
01:57:40,400 --> 01:57:44,640
away is by who's actually on 
this chart who we weren't 

1920
01:57:44,640 --> 01:57:46,800
expecting Juan Johnson being on 
this chart. 

1921
01:57:47,120 --> 01:57:50,520
Yeah, like being this kind of 
like committee tight end. 

1922
01:57:51,480 --> 01:57:54,160
That's not what we drafted him 
for. 

1923
01:57:54,640 --> 01:57:58,440
No, it's not great. 
I definitely am feeling much 

1924
01:57:58,440 --> 01:58:01,000
more bearish on Joan Johnson 
now. 

1925
01:58:01,000 --> 01:58:05,480
I do I do remember seeing easy 
he had a note that he played in 

1926
01:58:05,480 --> 01:58:11,360
all the 11 personnel snaps and 
that the game script has been 

1927
01:58:11,360 --> 01:58:15,560
like anti using Joan Johnson 
because like. 

1928
01:58:15,800 --> 01:58:17,040
You're they're not throwing, 
Yeah. 

1929
01:58:17,280 --> 01:58:19,720
Right, you're not going to use 
him much in a positive game 

1930
01:58:19,720 --> 01:58:21,680
script. 
I mean, yeah, look at he's got 

1931
01:58:21,680 --> 01:58:24,000
zero blocking. 
He's literally just. 

1932
01:58:24,080 --> 01:58:27,480
I noticed that too, so. 
So Jawan Johnson, you, you know 

1933
01:58:27,480 --> 01:58:28,160
what? 
It's funny. 

1934
01:58:28,160 --> 01:58:31,120
Jawan Johnson is what everyone 
wanted Kyle Pitts to be. 

1935
01:58:31,320 --> 01:58:34,240
He is a receiver with pipe and 
eligibility. 

1936
01:58:35,480 --> 01:58:38,960
Unfortunately he's got full back
usage. 

1937
01:58:40,880 --> 01:58:43,560
Yeah, we'll, we'll see. 
I mean man, the Eagles. 

1938
01:58:43,600 --> 01:58:46,080
Eagles would be a fun spot 
though potentially if they can 

1939
01:58:46,320 --> 01:58:49,400
hang some points, maybe get a 
little more jawan involvement 

1940
01:58:50,080 --> 01:58:52,920
that that might be fun. 
Yeah, yeah. 

1941
01:58:52,920 --> 01:58:55,960
So you're is that a prime time 
game? 

1942
01:58:57,320 --> 01:58:59,440
Let's see. 
I don't. 

1943
01:58:59,560 --> 01:59:01,560
I don't know. 
No, it's probably not game. 

1944
01:59:01,560 --> 01:59:02,920
I don't think it is. 
Probably not. 

1945
01:59:03,720 --> 01:59:06,400
Yeah, I don't believe it is. 
I think it's a Sunday main slate

1946
01:59:06,400 --> 01:59:07,880
game. 
Yeah, I don't know why I had 

1947
01:59:07,880 --> 01:59:10,240
that in my head. 
So should we move on to the 

1948
01:59:10,320 --> 01:59:12,880
Yeah. 
Let's get to receivers here. 

1949
01:59:14,440 --> 01:59:19,040
And so we've got receiver 
opportunity versus fantasy 

1950
01:59:19,040 --> 01:59:23,080
points, so horizontal weighted 
targets per run, which is like 

1951
01:59:23,080 --> 01:59:27,400
targets per run, but ways to 
deep down the field targets more

1952
01:59:27,400 --> 01:59:30,560
heavily and plot that against 
fantasy points because we don't 

1953
01:59:30,560 --> 01:59:34,200
just want usage, we also want 
the score to points. 

1954
01:59:34,800 --> 01:59:39,000
And then a couple of very smart 
people made this point over the 

1955
01:59:39,000 --> 01:59:42,520
years that the actually the 
strongest and predictor for next

1956
01:59:42,520 --> 01:59:46,480
season, for this season points 
is last season points. 

1957
01:59:47,080 --> 01:59:51,080
And so keeping a track of who's 
actually scoring is helpful too.

1958
01:59:52,560 --> 01:59:55,160
Yeah, sometimes the game doesn't
have to be hard. 

1959
01:59:55,160 --> 01:59:57,160
Just look at the fantasy points 
here last year. 

1960
01:59:57,200 --> 02:00:01,320
That'll help you predict next 
year, really and honestly. 

1961
02:00:01,920 --> 02:00:06,320
Yeah, no, I I know I'm being 
serious, man. 

1962
02:00:06,480 --> 02:00:11,120
The the guy though, that is, I 
mean his ascension last year, 

1963
02:00:11,120 --> 02:00:14,440
like we were all getting hot and
bothered about this guy and he's

1964
02:00:14,440 --> 02:00:19,200
just continuing Nico Collins 
just looking like an absolute 

1965
02:00:19,200 --> 02:00:21,960
alpha. 
I don't know if you're watching 

1966
02:00:22,240 --> 02:00:25,520
this game, but they were they're
comparing him to Andre Johnson. 

1967
02:00:26,880 --> 02:00:28,080
It was. 
It was pretty fun. 

1968
02:00:28,080 --> 02:00:31,000
Fun comparison. 
It feels like a fair. 

1969
02:00:31,080 --> 02:00:35,040
I mean, that's helmet scouting, 
but it also feels fair. 

1970
02:00:35,560 --> 02:00:38,600
Yes, I mean, yeah, Nico Collins 
just looks dominant. 

1971
02:00:38,600 --> 02:00:43,000
He's the question was, is there 
really a wide receiver one on 

1972
02:00:43,000 --> 02:00:45,520
the Texans or is it just gonna 
be guys that trade off? 

1973
02:00:45,960 --> 02:00:49,600
I think, well, I, I think if you
want my like actual answer on 

1974
02:00:49,600 --> 02:00:51,240
that, I think the answer is yes 
to both. 

1975
02:00:51,240 --> 02:00:54,400
Like yes Nico Collins is the 
wide receiver one, but also 

1976
02:00:54,400 --> 02:00:57,840
there will be weeks where Steph 
Diggs gets his or Tank Doug gets

1977
02:00:57,840 --> 02:01:01,040
his but Nico is the alpha like 
he's establishing. 

1978
02:01:01,040 --> 02:01:07,720
Himself as the alpha like I 
think if you reran A2 week data 

1979
02:01:07,720 --> 02:01:12,320
sample of the Texans in in 
random sequences, it's like 

1980
02:01:12,600 --> 02:01:16,000
there's a lot where different 
receivers are look like the wide

1981
02:01:16,000 --> 02:01:18,120
receiver one. 
Yeah, yes. 

1982
02:01:18,800 --> 02:01:23,240
And so he's going to score a lot
of points, like really excited 

1983
02:01:23,240 --> 02:01:27,080
about his prospects this year 
and but certainly don't write 

1984
02:01:27,080 --> 02:01:31,760
out the other guys. 
In this same quadrant with him, 

1985
02:01:31,760 --> 02:01:37,200
we've got some new additions and
some some familiar faces. 

1986
02:01:37,760 --> 02:01:40,520
The new additions. 
I mean this this guy was here 

1987
02:01:40,520 --> 02:01:43,680
last week. 
But Jameson Williams showing 

1988
02:01:43,680 --> 02:01:47,520
that week 1 was not a fluke 
still continued to earn volume 

1989
02:01:47,800 --> 02:01:49,760
was out targeted by almond raw 
this week. 

1990
02:01:50,920 --> 02:01:55,560
But you know, you can see that 
Jameson Williams is definitely 

1991
02:01:55,560 --> 02:01:57,800
was not just a one week blip on 
the radar. 

1992
02:01:58,560 --> 02:02:02,680
They will both be, you know, 
solid fantasy producers for this

1993
02:02:02,680 --> 02:02:05,680
season. 
The other new addition here is 

1994
02:02:05,680 --> 02:02:08,640
rookie Malik neighbors who had 
and I. 

1995
02:02:08,680 --> 02:02:11,560
I just want to I want to make 
sure that I'm right on this 

1996
02:02:11,760 --> 02:02:15,840
AA60A60. 
What percent targets per out one

1997
02:02:16,840 --> 02:02:19,680
right or 6060% target share. 
What was it? 

1998
02:02:20,400 --> 02:02:26,240
And so Malik Neighbors and 
actually, so he had a 3231% 

1999
02:02:26,600 --> 02:02:32,880
targets per out run, but I think
his overall target share is 

2000
02:02:32,880 --> 02:02:35,040
something like 60 something 
percent, Yeah. 

2001
02:02:35,160 --> 02:02:38,720
It's just absurd. 
So, so crazy. 

2002
02:02:39,520 --> 02:02:41,080
Oh oh. 
Wait, sorry, 31%? 

2003
02:02:41,080 --> 02:02:43,640
That's for the season. 
Yeah, My, my, my bad. 

2004
02:02:44,880 --> 02:02:46,120
Gotcha. 
Yeah, I think, I think it was 

2005
02:02:46,120 --> 02:02:50,400
like 66% this week is what I 
believe my memory is serving, 

2006
02:02:50,400 --> 02:02:51,840
but. 
Yeah, that sounds, that sounds 

2007
02:02:51,840 --> 02:02:53,600
more right. 
Kind of kind of seems like the 

2008
02:02:53,600 --> 02:02:57,720
Giants figured out like this is 
our best player. 

2009
02:02:57,720 --> 02:03:01,440
We just need to get in the ball 
over and over and over and over.

2010
02:03:02,880 --> 02:03:05,200
Do you see that changing at all 
this season? 

2011
02:03:05,200 --> 02:03:08,000
Was this a week where it was 
like, we need, we need to feed 

2012
02:03:08,000 --> 02:03:10,800
him just so he's happy and then 
we'll we'll go back to like 

2013
02:03:10,800 --> 02:03:13,320
spreading it out a little bit 
more, obviously with himself, 

2014
02:03:13,320 --> 02:03:15,360
the wide receiver on. 
Are we just going to see? 

2015
02:03:16,840 --> 02:03:20,120
I mean that I think the thing 
about it is, is like you're not 

2016
02:03:20,120 --> 02:03:23,280
going to see a player finish 
with a 63% target shift around 

2017
02:03:23,280 --> 02:03:27,560
the year. 
Like you're not, but I think it 

2018
02:03:27,640 --> 02:03:33,120
it could stretch the bounds of 
like credibility where like it 

2019
02:03:33,120 --> 02:03:36,400
could be so it could be like 
more than 40 like. 

2020
02:03:36,960 --> 02:03:40,360
That'd be that'd be so insane, 
but very fun. 

2021
02:03:41,040 --> 02:03:43,920
Right, like, but like, I'm just 
trying to, I'm just trying to 

2022
02:03:43,920 --> 02:03:46,720
put a realistic flag. 
No, I, I and I think that's, 

2023
02:03:47,120 --> 02:03:50,360
yeah, I think that's reasonable 
too, which is crazy. 

2024
02:03:50,360 --> 02:03:54,280
Just like if he told me that 
he'd have a 40% target share 

2025
02:03:54,280 --> 02:03:56,040
coming into this season, I would
have laughed at you. 

2026
02:03:56,040 --> 02:03:59,840
But here we are. 
Like in a healthy season, it's 

2027
02:03:59,840 --> 02:04:02,640
it's not, it's, it's certainly 
not less than 30. 

2028
02:04:02,800 --> 02:04:09,400
It's probably not less than 35. 
Yeah, pretty wild old familiar 

2029
02:04:09,400 --> 02:04:12,600
faces up here. 
Devante Adams, Justin Jefferson.

2030
02:04:13,040 --> 02:04:17,040
Surprise two of the best 
receivers in football for still 

2031
02:04:17,200 --> 02:04:18,720
two of the best receivers in 
football. 

2032
02:04:19,560 --> 02:04:23,440
DK Metcalf shows up after a big 
nuke game with his teammate 

2033
02:04:23,440 --> 02:04:27,240
Jackson Smith and Jigba. 
This is one I really want to 

2034
02:04:27,240 --> 02:04:31,040
watch. 
I I would anticipate that the 

2035
02:04:31,040 --> 02:04:35,200
Seahawks receivers can't 
maintain this level of fantasy 

2036
02:04:35,200 --> 02:04:40,040
production that they got from 
Week 2, but also I I don't think

2037
02:04:40,040 --> 02:04:42,680
it's going to be anywhere near 
as bad as week 1 was. 

2038
02:04:42,680 --> 02:04:45,800
I think in reality, you know the
boring answer is probably 

2039
02:04:45,800 --> 02:04:49,920
somewhere in the middle, but 
very exciting to see both these 

2040
02:04:49,920 --> 02:04:53,480
guys here. 
Yeah, yeah. 

2041
02:04:53,680 --> 02:05:01,360
And we were kind of very sad 
about JSN not getting the 

2042
02:05:01,360 --> 02:05:06,160
targets in Week 1 and then to 
see a bounce back where they 

2043
02:05:06,160 --> 02:05:09,840
targeted them heavily and it 
actually like became an 

2044
02:05:09,840 --> 02:05:12,440
important part of them winning 
the game too, of getting 

2045
02:05:12,440 --> 02:05:16,000
production through him. 
Very, very exciting. 

2046
02:05:16,760 --> 02:05:19,840
And then it wasn't just the 
short yardage stuff. 

2047
02:05:19,840 --> 02:05:25,520
It was also like intermediate. 
And it definitely feels like in 

2048
02:05:25,520 --> 02:05:29,520
in in, in versions of this 
season where the Seahawks 

2049
02:05:29,520 --> 02:05:33,800
offense is good and I can move 
the ball and they they have to 

2050
02:05:33,800 --> 02:05:38,000
involve a healthy amount of JSN,
which great to see. 

2051
02:05:38,840 --> 02:05:43,760
Yeah, absolutely. 
Another guy who is a new 

2052
02:05:43,760 --> 02:05:46,640
addition to this quadrant is 
Calvin Ridley. 

2053
02:05:46,640 --> 02:05:50,400
And we we alluded to this 
earlier that the offense is 

2054
02:05:50,400 --> 02:05:54,920
Calvin Ridley, but it's it seems
to potentially be making him 

2055
02:05:55,200 --> 02:06:00,080
fantasy viable now. 
I think it's just like, can he 

2056
02:06:00,080 --> 02:06:04,800
survive the utter stink of Will 
Levis to remain fantasy viable 

2057
02:06:05,160 --> 02:06:07,080
now? 
DeAndre Hopkins was able to 

2058
02:06:07,080 --> 02:06:09,480
survive the utter stink last 
season. 

2059
02:06:09,920 --> 02:06:13,200
And now with, I mean, for for 
people that are, you know, 

2060
02:06:13,200 --> 02:06:16,360
somehow out of the loop on the 
DeAndre Hopkins stuff, he is 

2061
02:06:16,360 --> 02:06:18,920
playing with a torn MCL right 
now. 

2062
02:06:18,920 --> 02:06:22,200
He did not opt for surgery. 
He's just like, I don't need 

2063
02:06:22,200 --> 02:06:24,960
that ligament. 
That's a luxury ligament. 

2064
02:06:25,080 --> 02:06:29,320
I'll just go on with. 
That it's only it's only pain on

2065
02:06:29,320 --> 02:06:35,240
the function of my knee. 
Yeah, So obviously that is 

2066
02:06:35,240 --> 02:06:37,600
majorly hampering DeAndre 
Hopkins. 

2067
02:06:37,600 --> 02:06:40,480
So Calvin Ridley is like the 
only show in town right now 

2068
02:06:40,720 --> 02:06:44,520
because I don't know if you saw 
Tyler Boyd that the the the 

2069
02:06:44,520 --> 02:06:47,440
Titans, you know, should not 
have been in that game, but they

2070
02:06:47,440 --> 02:06:50,520
kind of were. 
And then Tyler Boyd gets a 

2071
02:06:50,520 --> 02:06:54,120
chance to, you know, make a grab
near the end of the game and it 

2072
02:06:54,120 --> 02:06:56,000
just hits him chest. 
He drops it. 

2073
02:06:56,000 --> 02:06:59,440
It's like, all right, let's just
let's pack it up here. 

2074
02:06:59,440 --> 02:07:01,280
We're done. 
So what do you what do you think

2075
02:07:01,280 --> 02:07:03,280
about Calvin Ridley's outlook 
rest of the season? 

2076
02:07:03,280 --> 02:07:13,840
Does he belong up here? 
No, no, I think you probably 

2077
02:07:13,840 --> 02:07:21,000
should expect like AI don't 
know, probably like 15 points a 

2078
02:07:21,000 --> 02:07:24,960
game, maybe a little. 
I guess he's he's that's the 

2079
02:07:24,960 --> 02:07:29,160
part that he's in. 
I think 15 points a game is 

2080
02:07:29,160 --> 02:07:31,520
probably on the high end 
somewhere between 12 and a half,

2081
02:07:31,560 --> 02:07:36,320
15 and so certainly not less 
than 10. 

2082
02:07:36,560 --> 02:07:39,120
I mean, if they're just like, 
that's the thing about the NFL, 

2083
02:07:39,160 --> 02:07:44,000
if they're just going to focal 
go make him the focal point and 

2084
02:07:44,640 --> 02:07:49,880
feed him targets, then just true
volume alone. 

2085
02:07:49,880 --> 02:07:54,120
He probably will he probably 
will finish somewhere in that 

2086
02:07:54,120 --> 02:08:03,480
range. 
And but it's it's tough to see 

2087
02:08:03,480 --> 02:08:07,760
them like just like get away 
with that where like what, what,

2088
02:08:07,760 --> 02:08:09,640
why? 
Why wouldn't a defense just 

2089
02:08:09,640 --> 02:08:12,480
like, OK, we're just going to 
put the safety over Calvin 

2090
02:08:12,480 --> 02:08:15,680
Ridley and you don't have an 
answer for that? 

2091
02:08:17,000 --> 02:08:19,320
Yeah, that, that seems right to 
me. 

2092
02:08:19,320 --> 02:08:23,800
I would not anticipate him 
crushing for the whole season. 

2093
02:08:26,280 --> 02:08:29,120
Another with the short sample 
you also he did get the benefit 

2094
02:08:29,120 --> 02:08:31,600
of that improbable and touchdown
catch. 

2095
02:08:31,640 --> 02:08:34,400
Yes. 
Like I I don't think you should 

2096
02:08:34,400 --> 02:08:39,160
be projecting like like 88 that 
happening 8 more times. 

2097
02:08:40,040 --> 02:08:45,600
No, certainly not OK a receiver 
who you're hoping changes for 

2098
02:08:45,600 --> 02:08:47,680
the better if you've got him on 
a roster. 

2099
02:08:48,080 --> 02:08:50,880
Michael Pittman, junior who is 
out there with his weighted 

2100
02:08:50,880 --> 02:08:55,920
targets per route run. 
The problem is the offense is 

2101
02:08:55,920 --> 02:08:58,800
not throwing all that much. 
Now, granted, they did throw a 

2102
02:08:58,800 --> 02:09:03,040
lot more this week than they did
last week, but they threw almost

2103
02:09:03,040 --> 02:09:06,720
as much to the other team as 
they did to their own team. 

2104
02:09:07,480 --> 02:09:08,560
Anthony Richardson. 
Yeah, this. 

2105
02:09:08,600 --> 02:09:10,680
Is this is not a Michael Pittman
offense? 

2106
02:09:10,880 --> 02:09:13,800
No. 
It, it, it just, it does not 

2107
02:09:13,800 --> 02:09:16,080
suit them where it's a low 
volume, then they're going to 

2108
02:09:16,080 --> 02:09:22,240
chip deep. 
Like I guess the, the the 

2109
02:09:22,240 --> 02:09:27,960
question then is, so he's right 
there around just under 7 1/2 

2110
02:09:27,960 --> 02:09:31,240
points of like that doesn't feel
startable right now. 

2111
02:09:31,720 --> 02:09:35,200
No. 
And so you're benching Michael 

2112
02:09:35,200 --> 02:09:40,800
Pittman in, in, in most places 
where you have him and and 

2113
02:09:41,200 --> 02:09:43,640
you're, you're, but you're not, 
you're not cutting him. 

2114
02:09:44,520 --> 02:09:49,720
And because like what? 
Except in very shallow leaks, 

2115
02:09:50,520 --> 02:09:52,680
you're not. 
You're certainly not cutting him

2116
02:09:52,680 --> 02:09:57,960
in an FFPC managed, but you have
a really tough time starting 

2117
02:09:57,960 --> 02:10:00,280
them like you're you're sad to 
start Michael Pittman. 

2118
02:10:01,000 --> 02:10:03,160
If you're starting Michael 
Pittman and it probably means 

2119
02:10:03,160 --> 02:10:04,480
that you're losing that week, 
right? 

2120
02:10:04,760 --> 02:10:09,800
Right, right. 
Another guy in the same quadrant

2121
02:10:09,800 --> 02:10:14,480
is Michael Pittman. 
It's Chris Olave, and he's also.

2122
02:10:14,480 --> 02:10:16,280
He's right next to Gabe Davis, 
too. 

2123
02:10:16,800 --> 02:10:19,360
So are we. 
Are we officially worried about 

2124
02:10:19,360 --> 02:10:20,920
Chris Olava yet? 
It's true. 

2125
02:10:20,920 --> 02:10:21,320
Yeah. 
You. 

2126
02:10:21,480 --> 02:10:23,840
You challenge, I was worried 
about him last week. 

2127
02:10:23,840 --> 02:10:27,720
You challenged me on that. 
And and I think when you look 

2128
02:10:27,720 --> 02:10:31,840
into the trends on the Saints a 
little bit more with the, the 

2129
02:10:31,840 --> 02:10:36,040
low pass rate and then they'll 
happen to do like true dropbacks

2130
02:10:36,560 --> 02:10:40,760
and not really challenged as a 
as a passing attack. 

2131
02:10:41,200 --> 02:10:45,240
I think that has a lot to do 
with the low Olava use here. 

2132
02:10:45,720 --> 02:10:51,200
And you can certainly see the 
the Eagles pushing their their 

2133
02:10:51,200 --> 02:10:54,720
defense a lot more. 
So their offense actually has to

2134
02:10:54,720 --> 02:10:58,760
go out and throw it. 
And, and I think that it that 

2135
02:10:58,760 --> 02:11:00,000
that's where they're going to 
need Olave. 

2136
02:11:02,200 --> 02:11:05,960
So do you think this is a good 
bounce back spot for Olave? 

2137
02:11:06,000 --> 02:11:09,080
Would this be, you know, I'm 
Yeah, I haven't done. 

2138
02:11:09,240 --> 02:11:10,640
He's a quite low calendar, isn't
he? 

2139
02:11:11,200 --> 02:11:14,040
Yeah, yeah, I think I've done 
one Dog Bowl draft so far this 

2140
02:11:14,040 --> 02:11:17,520
week, so I don't really been 
been in the streets a ton there,

2141
02:11:17,840 --> 02:11:20,560
but I would assume he goes 
pretty late there. 

2142
02:11:20,560 --> 02:11:23,800
You think this is a good spot to
to try and hammer him? 

2143
02:11:24,480 --> 02:11:29,400
Yeah, yeah. 
I haven't looked at as AI just 

2144
02:11:29,400 --> 02:11:33,240
called him a Bilocan that I 
haven't even looked at as his 

2145
02:11:33,240 --> 02:11:36,440
expected points or anything like
that. 

2146
02:11:36,800 --> 02:11:44,600
So let's have a look at that. 
And so the expected points last 

2147
02:11:44,600 --> 02:11:49,320
week was three and this week his
expected points were 10.8. 

2148
02:11:50,080 --> 02:11:54,680
And so he's not going to pop. 
He's not actually going to pop 

2149
02:11:54,680 --> 02:12:00,880
in a buy low model and certainly
not and but given how important 

2150
02:12:00,880 --> 02:12:04,720
he would be when when the Saints
offense actually has to do some 

2151
02:12:04,720 --> 02:12:08,720
true drop back passing game 
certainly bounce back candidate.

2152
02:12:09,960 --> 02:12:15,560
Yeah, I I agree. 
OK, really quickly last section 

2153
02:12:15,560 --> 02:12:18,320
on this chart I wanted to go 
through, but we'll we'll get 

2154
02:12:18,320 --> 02:12:20,920
into the Wind Sprinters 
anonymous quadrant, which is 

2155
02:12:20,920 --> 02:12:26,040
this bottom left quadrant here. 
I'm just going to rapid fire 

2156
02:12:26,040 --> 02:12:30,000
here and I want you to tell me 
if the guy is just destined to 

2157
02:12:30,000 --> 02:12:32,800
live in this quadrant or if he's
going to move to greener 

2158
02:12:32,800 --> 02:12:36,360
pastures and move to the right 
side of the chart where he's at 

2159
02:12:36,360 --> 02:12:38,440
least getting more weighted 
targets per route run. 

2160
02:12:38,920 --> 02:12:41,680
And hopefully that's translating
into more fantasy points per 

2161
02:12:41,680 --> 02:12:42,800
game. 
So I'm just going to hit you 

2162
02:12:42,800 --> 02:12:44,640
with some guys here in this 
bottom left quadrant. 

2163
02:12:45,040 --> 02:12:49,080
Christian Kirk. 
He's probably stuck here. 

2164
02:12:50,200 --> 02:12:53,520
Kerry Mclaurin probably stuck 
here. 

2165
02:12:54,240 --> 02:12:58,200
Jacoby Myers. 
And yeah, he's stuck here now. 

2166
02:12:58,440 --> 02:13:01,040
He's been supplanted. 
Amari Cooper. 

2167
02:13:04,280 --> 02:13:06,640
I mean, over full season he 
probably moves right? 

2168
02:13:08,000 --> 02:13:15,760
Yeah, Roma Dunze. 
I mean, he should move right? 

2169
02:13:15,840 --> 02:13:18,520
If the Bears offense is gonna 
succeed, he should move right? 

2170
02:13:20,640 --> 02:13:24,360
After watching the the Sunday 
night game, it doesn't feel like

2171
02:13:24,360 --> 02:13:29,320
he will, but he has to. 
Like, I'm gonna give them that 

2172
02:13:29,320 --> 02:13:32,160
coaching staff just a tiny bit 
of credit and say he moves, 

2173
02:13:32,160 --> 02:13:34,480
right? 
Brandon Iuke. 

2174
02:13:35,040 --> 02:13:36,640
Yes, they. 
Have. 

2175
02:13:36,640 --> 02:13:39,120
Yeah, that one's the clearest 
one to me. 

2176
02:13:39,600 --> 02:13:45,600
Last one, Keon Coleman. 
And they probably have to target

2177
02:13:45,600 --> 02:13:47,120
him. 
They have to make him more 

2178
02:13:47,120 --> 02:13:50,040
important as well. 
Like if they have playoff 

2179
02:13:50,040 --> 02:13:52,960
aspirations and they're like, 
oh, really? 

2180
02:13:52,960 --> 02:13:55,000
Hope this is a Khalil Shakur 
game. 

2181
02:13:55,560 --> 02:13:57,680
It's gonna say. 
We got a touchdown from Mac 

2182
02:13:57,680 --> 02:14:00,160
Collins here. 
Like they they need to bring 

2183
02:14:00,160 --> 02:14:02,680
that guy on. 
You don't think you can build 

2184
02:14:02,680 --> 02:14:04,120
the plane out of Khalil Shakur 
Mac? 

2185
02:14:04,120 --> 02:14:10,560
Collins I I I enjoy this note 
from KZ. 

2186
02:14:10,600 --> 02:14:16,040
DJ Murr is bound to give up 
eventually, where he'll just 

2187
02:14:16,040 --> 02:14:20,280
lose his will to play like he's 
like, you know what, I retire. 

2188
02:14:20,600 --> 02:14:22,000
I'm good. 
Thank God. 

2189
02:14:22,000 --> 02:14:24,080
I mean thank God he got paid 
though, right? 

2190
02:14:24,080 --> 02:14:26,560
Like at least he's he can be 
rich and miserable. 

2191
02:14:27,160 --> 02:14:31,560
Right, financially rewarded for 
his good play. 

2192
02:14:32,360 --> 02:14:38,280
Let's let's go to our 70 to 85% 
routes run guys here. 

2193
02:14:39,680 --> 02:14:44,800
So these, yeah, this chart has a
lot of guys who, you know, we 

2194
02:14:44,800 --> 02:14:49,560
normally would see on the other 
chart in like Mike Evans and CD 

2195
02:14:49,560 --> 02:14:55,760
Lamb, but they just haven't 
been, you know, I think like for

2196
02:14:55,760 --> 02:14:59,960
the Cowboys, for example, there 
really wasn't a need for CD Lamb

2197
02:14:59,960 --> 02:15:03,640
to be running that many routes 
at the end of both of their 

2198
02:15:03,680 --> 02:15:06,360
first two games, right? 
They were beating the brakes off

2199
02:15:06,360 --> 02:15:08,640
the Browns and they got the 
brakes beat off them by the 

2200
02:15:08,640 --> 02:15:11,800
Saints. 
So, you know, he didn't run a 

2201
02:15:11,800 --> 02:15:13,880
ton of routes. 
So I don't think this is really 

2202
02:15:13,880 --> 02:15:17,080
like indicative of how many 
routes he's going to run. 

2203
02:15:17,080 --> 02:15:20,240
He'll probably graduate to that.
That first chart here. 

2204
02:15:20,880 --> 02:15:23,200
Tyreek kind of always lives on 
this chart. 

2205
02:15:23,240 --> 02:15:27,080
That's just how he is, right? 
He was here last year, all year.

2206
02:15:27,080 --> 02:15:29,040
He was perpetually breaking the 
chart. 

2207
02:15:29,040 --> 02:15:31,440
He's an older, he's an older 
hyper efficient player. 

2208
02:15:31,560 --> 02:15:34,320
So right. 
But they this is not a mansion. 

2209
02:15:34,880 --> 02:15:37,320
Jane, Jane Reed, I would expect 
to probably stay. 

2210
02:15:37,320 --> 02:15:40,320
He, he's a, he's gonna be a 
fixture here, I would assume. 

2211
02:15:40,320 --> 02:15:43,280
Right slot only, but you're 
you're where are you drafting 

2212
02:15:43,280 --> 02:15:44,440
them? 
You're really happy with this up

2213
02:15:44,440 --> 02:15:47,120
to? 
80 Yep, absolutely. 

2214
02:15:48,720 --> 02:15:52,200
Guys that I thought were were 
worth mentioning here, Chris 

2215
02:15:52,200 --> 02:15:55,840
Godwin. 
Maybe people overreacted last 

2216
02:15:55,840 --> 02:15:58,840
year to Mike Evans, you know, 
being the touchdown hog. 

2217
02:15:59,520 --> 02:16:01,480
Maybe Chris Godwin is still 
good. 

2218
02:16:01,560 --> 02:16:04,240
Maybe all he needed was to 
operate out of the slot. 

2219
02:16:04,240 --> 02:16:07,720
What do you think? 
Yes, that's that's certainly 

2220
02:16:07,720 --> 02:16:13,640
seems to be how it's worked out.
It's interesting. 

2221
02:16:14,200 --> 02:16:17,680
So Mike Evans, so Chris got 182%
red shirt. 

2222
02:16:17,720 --> 02:16:23,240
Mike Evans 84, McMillan 87. 
So that does feel a little bit 

2223
02:16:23,240 --> 02:16:26,480
more rotational than a than a 
typical offense. 

2224
02:16:28,560 --> 02:16:30,200
Well, because they are. 
They're getting Trey Palmer 

2225
02:16:30,200 --> 02:16:32,240
worked in there too, right? 
Right. 

2226
02:16:34,840 --> 02:16:38,160
And but Trey Palmer, he's at 
21%. 

2227
02:16:38,600 --> 02:16:44,040
OK. 
And so I guess you that that 

2228
02:16:44,040 --> 02:16:50,959
sums to 274%. 
So like 2.7 receivers a play. 

2229
02:16:51,280 --> 02:16:53,959
Yeah. 
And they're mixing in. 

2230
02:16:53,959 --> 02:16:55,799
They're mixing in tree guys a 
lot. 

2231
02:16:57,600 --> 02:17:00,680
So I think that is a little bit 
interesting, but obviously 

2232
02:17:00,840 --> 02:17:02,520
they're doing it very 
effectively. 

2233
02:17:03,760 --> 02:17:09,280
I guess the question is we 
shouldn't expect the books 

2234
02:17:09,280 --> 02:17:14,360
offense to operate this well and
this efficiently all season, or 

2235
02:17:14,360 --> 02:17:19,000
should we? 
I mean, if you maybe pick one 

2236
02:17:19,000 --> 02:17:20,959
way or another, if they're going
to stay this efficient or 

2237
02:17:20,959 --> 02:17:23,000
regress a little bit, I'd 
probably pick regress. 

2238
02:17:23,000 --> 02:17:26,760
But I also think it's kind of 
what we talked about in in 

2239
02:17:26,760 --> 02:17:30,799
reverse for the Lions where Goth
had all these attempts, right? 

2240
02:17:32,000 --> 02:17:36,240
And and it was because of the 
game script and the Bucks really

2241
02:17:36,240 --> 02:17:39,360
slowed down passing in this 
game, like in the second-half, 

2242
02:17:39,360 --> 02:17:41,680
they they didn't need to to pass
as much. 

2243
02:17:41,680 --> 02:17:48,600
So Baker Baker didn't throw as 
much and I, so I think that you 

2244
02:17:48,600 --> 02:17:51,440
could see them become a little 
less efficient, but have the 

2245
02:17:51,440 --> 02:17:55,799
volume tick up a little bit. 
And so I, I'm, I'm kind of of 

2246
02:17:55,799 --> 02:17:59,719
the opinion that the Bucks 
receivers might just be like, we

2247
02:17:59,719 --> 02:18:03,000
might be seeing like their 
baseline production right now, 

2248
02:18:03,000 --> 02:18:06,959
Like they this may just be like 
a pretty good offense this year.

2249
02:18:07,680 --> 02:18:12,559
Right, not not make sense. 
And one thing that I notice 

2250
02:18:12,559 --> 02:18:15,840
here, and I'm actually I'm not 
sure where it's this stands in 

2251
02:18:15,840 --> 02:18:20,840
the context of the rest of his 
career, but Mike Evans is 8 odds

2252
02:18:20,840 --> 02:18:30,600
is just 11 and 21% targets per 
out run and that like it's only 

2253
02:18:30,600 --> 02:18:32,440
two games. 
That does feel like a little bit

2254
02:18:32,440 --> 02:18:35,639
of a fade off. 
But yeah, I'm not. 

2255
02:18:35,639 --> 02:18:36,639
I want. 
To check it here. 

2256
02:18:37,920 --> 02:18:41,959
Yeah, I'm, I'm willing to chalk 
that up to small sample stuff. 

2257
02:18:44,120 --> 02:18:48,280
Not not ready to say like he's 
always lost a step or what what 

2258
02:18:48,280 --> 02:18:49,280
have you. 
Right. 

2259
02:18:49,280 --> 02:18:51,520
It, it, it is, it is too early 
to say that. 

2260
02:18:52,080 --> 02:19:01,000
And so, yeah, last year he was 
24% targets for a run and so 

2261
02:19:01,000 --> 02:19:04,840
he's at 21% now. 
So that's that's certainly when 

2262
02:19:07,080 --> 02:19:12,000
kicking range and then as a dot 
was at 15 last year, so a dot 

2263
02:19:12,000 --> 02:19:18,559
down and target for a rundown. 
So then I guess the thing the 

2264
02:19:18,559 --> 02:19:22,440
piece though, is if you expect 
Godwin's production to stay 

2265
02:19:22,440 --> 02:19:26,440
where it is like you like you 
kind of need it to be true that 

2266
02:19:26,440 --> 02:19:28,200
Mike Evans. 
Has lost. 

2267
02:19:28,320 --> 02:19:32,040
Yeah, I'd, I'd say what it what 
I think is the most likely thing

2268
02:19:32,040 --> 02:19:36,160
to happen is that they they kind
of alternate where it's not 

2269
02:19:36,160 --> 02:19:40,280
going to be that, you know, 
Godwin keeps us this exact 

2270
02:19:40,280 --> 02:19:42,160
production every game for the 
whole season. 

2271
02:19:42,160 --> 02:19:45,680
But just they oscillate back and
forth where Evans will have 

2272
02:19:45,680 --> 02:19:49,160
these big efficient, you know, 
deep plays where he's, you know,

2273
02:19:49,160 --> 02:19:52,680
hauling in a really deep ball, 
you know, or mossing a guy for a

2274
02:19:52,680 --> 02:19:54,080
touchdown or something like 
that. 

2275
02:19:54,600 --> 02:19:59,440
And Godwin then loses out a 
little bit on what he can 

2276
02:19:59,440 --> 02:20:01,280
produce because Evans is just 
eating up. 

2277
02:20:01,640 --> 02:20:04,520
Hey, Mike Evans, just. 
Had it hauled in a 40 yard 

2278
02:20:04,520 --> 02:20:06,880
touchdown. 
So the drive's over like Chris 

2279
02:20:06,880 --> 02:20:09,480
Godwin can't keep earning 
targets anymore because the 

2280
02:20:09,480 --> 02:20:12,320
drive's done. 
So I, I think it'll probably 

2281
02:20:12,320 --> 02:20:13,800
oscillate back and forth between
them. 

2282
02:20:14,240 --> 02:20:18,080
But I, I think like as a, as a 
baseline, like if you kind of 

2283
02:20:18,080 --> 02:20:21,560
split the baby on where they're 
at on the chart where you know, 

2284
02:20:21,560 --> 02:20:25,320
Godwin is, is super high with 
above 20 fantasy points per game

2285
02:20:25,320 --> 02:20:27,800
right now. 
And Evans is in that 15 range, 

2286
02:20:28,080 --> 02:20:31,760
probably both of them closer to 
that 15 range, maybe a a shade 

2287
02:20:31,760 --> 02:20:35,520
above, but it's looking like a 
pretty good passing offense. 

2288
02:20:37,000 --> 02:20:39,520
Yeah. 
And then the other piece as well

2289
02:20:39,520 --> 02:20:42,240
is I know he doesn't belong on 
this chart. 

2290
02:20:42,720 --> 02:20:46,160
No, he actually does. 
He does and jail and McMillan, 

2291
02:20:46,160 --> 02:20:51,280
we were pretty, all pretty hyped
about him getting the role and 

2292
02:20:51,280 --> 02:20:53,360
he was he was a ship chasing 
clip. 

2293
02:20:53,880 --> 02:21:00,320
And but then his, his targets 
per run is just it's what's like

2294
02:21:00,320 --> 02:21:02,800
9%. 
And then yeah, he's actually, 

2295
02:21:02,800 --> 02:21:05,920
he's on the the previous chart, 
but he's in the wind sprinter 

2296
02:21:06,280 --> 02:21:08,840
quadrant. 
Oh, OK, OK. 

2297
02:21:09,320 --> 02:21:13,720
And he's getting this like 17A 
dot, but rarely targeted. 

2298
02:21:14,400 --> 02:21:19,960
And so the, the, the, that's the
other question of is he, is he 

2299
02:21:19,960 --> 02:21:23,840
going to stay there all season 
or is this just like the day one

2300
02:21:23,840 --> 02:21:27,880
rookie roll is to clear off the 
safeties, run off the safeties 

2301
02:21:28,680 --> 02:21:31,560
and then maybe they expand his, 
his usage more. 

2302
02:21:32,200 --> 02:21:35,520
I, I think it's the day one 
rookie roll, but I think that if

2303
02:21:35,520 --> 02:21:40,000
you're expecting him to be 
exploding with a huge breakout 

2304
02:21:40,000 --> 02:21:43,040
halfway through the season, I 
think you're probably a little 

2305
02:21:43,040 --> 02:21:46,680
overly optimistic. 
To me, what this feels like is 

2306
02:21:46,960 --> 02:21:51,080
you have two very good incumbent
receivers here with Godwin and 

2307
02:21:51,080 --> 02:21:56,000
Evans and McMillan, you know, 
could be very good and it it's 

2308
02:21:56,000 --> 02:22:00,360
just going to be hard to earn 
targets alongside those guys. 

2309
02:22:00,720 --> 02:22:04,760
So incredible contingent value 
because I think that if you saw 

2310
02:22:04,760 --> 02:22:08,480
a void, you know, in, in the 
offense, he could definitely 

2311
02:22:08,480 --> 02:22:12,000
step in and fill it. 
And then also, I think that as 

2312
02:22:12,000 --> 02:22:15,000
the season progresses and they 
get to trust him more and more 

2313
02:22:15,000 --> 02:22:17,240
and he he he'll make some big 
plays here and there. 

2314
02:22:17,240 --> 02:22:20,480
Like, I mean, week one shoot, he
he could have had multiple 

2315
02:22:20,480 --> 02:22:22,200
touchdowns. 
So the guy, the guy can make 

2316
02:22:22,200 --> 02:22:25,200
some big plays. 
So I think we'll see his role 

2317
02:22:25,200 --> 02:22:28,640
grow over the season. 
I think it's going to be really 

2318
02:22:28,640 --> 02:22:31,960
hard for him to usurp either of 
these guys because they're both.

2319
02:22:31,960 --> 02:22:33,840
Good, right. 
They're they're good. 

2320
02:22:33,840 --> 02:22:36,200
They're playing well and they're
entrenched. 

2321
02:22:37,840 --> 02:22:43,400
Yeah, that that makes sense. 
Two other ones on this chart 

2322
02:22:43,400 --> 02:22:48,800
here that I I like. 
Now they're they're both similar

2323
02:22:49,680 --> 02:22:57,200
in where they're at as far as 
now where did I'm I'm missing. 

2324
02:22:58,640 --> 02:23:00,720
I can't find my Deonte Johnson 
dot. 

2325
02:23:00,720 --> 02:23:02,720
Where did where did Deonte 
Johnson go? 

2326
02:23:03,280 --> 02:23:05,640
There he is OK. 
He's all the way down near a 

2327
02:23:05,640 --> 02:23:08,680
little above 50% weighted 
targets per route run, but only 

2328
02:23:08,680 --> 02:23:11,080
around 5 fantasy points that 
bottom right quadrant. 

2329
02:23:11,920 --> 02:23:16,720
So Rashid, I wanted to to talk 
about him and Rashid Shahid 

2330
02:23:16,720 --> 02:23:20,240
because they kind of feel like 
they're they're two ships in the

2331
02:23:20,320 --> 02:23:22,480
they're just so different in the
way that they get there, where 

2332
02:23:22,520 --> 02:23:26,160
Shahid is getting there on 
extreme efficiency, but not a 

2333
02:23:26,160 --> 02:23:28,640
ton of targets, right? 
But his weighted targets per 

2334
02:23:28,640 --> 02:23:32,480
outrun look really good getting 
such deep passes, right. 

2335
02:23:33,680 --> 02:23:36,680
And then also the offense, 
there's just not a ton of routes

2336
02:23:36,680 --> 02:23:39,320
happening. 
And then Deonte, well, you're in

2337
02:23:39,320 --> 02:23:42,240
this entirely dysfunctional 
offense, but now you get the 

2338
02:23:42,240 --> 02:23:46,200
quarterback change. 
So I'm, I'm wondering, you know,

2339
02:23:46,200 --> 02:23:48,320
if you had to pick between these
two guys, Rashid Shahid or 

2340
02:23:48,320 --> 02:23:51,800
Deonte Johnson? 
Oh God, rest of the season, who 

2341
02:23:51,800 --> 02:23:55,360
do you think is going to end up 
in the more favorable spot on 

2342
02:23:55,360 --> 02:23:59,720
this? 
Chart and who, who, who's? 

2343
02:23:59,840 --> 02:24:01,200
Who's going to score more 
points? 

2344
02:24:01,320 --> 02:24:04,800
Who would I project for more? 
And I'd probably give slight 

2345
02:24:04,840 --> 02:24:07,120
edge rest of the season. 
I'd probably give slight edge to

2346
02:24:07,320 --> 02:24:13,200
Deonte. 
And but that's because, I mean, 

2347
02:24:13,200 --> 02:24:17,760
we've kind of seen the the, the 
one negative on Shaheed is we've

2348
02:24:17,760 --> 02:24:20,360
kind of seen this start before 
where he's catching these deep 

2349
02:24:20,360 --> 02:24:24,640
bombs and it looks great and we 
feel great about it. 

2350
02:24:24,960 --> 02:24:30,600
But then has he I don't think he
has sustained it over a full 

2351
02:24:30,600 --> 02:24:32,880
season. 
So like we obviously shouldn't 

2352
02:24:32,880 --> 02:24:38,080
just expect Jaheed to just be 
catching deep bombs every game 

2353
02:24:38,720 --> 02:24:43,640
and that to be how the Saints 
offense works. 

2354
02:24:43,800 --> 02:24:45,560
Like it's going to happen again 
this year. 

2355
02:24:45,560 --> 02:24:47,960
I'm not going to say I'm not 
trying to say that it won't. 

2356
02:24:48,520 --> 02:24:58,880
And then the I think his, his 
rate stuff is being pushed up a 

2357
02:24:58,880 --> 02:25:00,760
little. 
Shaheed's rate stuff is being 

2358
02:25:00,760 --> 02:25:04,720
pushed up by the low attempts. 
Whereas like it's almost like a 

2359
02:25:04,720 --> 02:25:06,600
bomb that Shaheed then call it a
day. 

2360
02:25:06,800 --> 02:25:10,320
Yeah. 
And in two weeks of data, I 

2361
02:25:10,320 --> 02:25:13,360
don't, I don't feel great about 
just projecting that kind of 

2362
02:25:13,360 --> 02:25:18,760
like rate stuff going forward. 
Whereas Deonte, I do think, I 

2363
02:25:18,800 --> 02:25:21,520
think like he's been a target 
earner. 

2364
02:25:21,880 --> 02:25:25,800
He's continuing to earn targets 
and now he has like this kind of

2365
02:25:25,800 --> 02:25:30,360
borderline competent quarterback
where he's going to get those 

2366
02:25:30,360 --> 02:25:35,200
targets from. 
So he probably will score good 

2367
02:25:35,200 --> 02:25:37,600
points the rest of the way with 
Dalton. 

2368
02:25:38,680 --> 02:25:41,080
Yeah, I think, I think that's 
how I land as well. 

2369
02:25:41,080 --> 02:25:44,720
It's really fun to be the Rashid
Shahid Bowl right now, though. 

2370
02:25:45,520 --> 02:25:49,320
It sure is. 
Those screenshots are looking 

2371
02:25:49,320 --> 02:25:53,000
nice. 
Yes, But OK, moving, moving on 

2372
02:25:53,000 --> 02:25:56,160
to another receiver. 
Here's here's what I'm just I'm 

2373
02:25:56,160 --> 02:26:01,400
curious, how does Ray Ray McLeod
have greater than a 50% weighted

2374
02:26:01,400 --> 02:26:04,120
targets per route run in an NFL 
offense? 

2375
02:26:04,400 --> 02:26:07,320
Can you answer that question? 
Yeah, yeah. 

2376
02:26:07,320 --> 02:26:11,840
So last week our our kind of 
explanation was that Kirk was so

2377
02:26:11,840 --> 02:26:15,760
tentative and he was just like, 
kind of like tossing it down to 

2378
02:26:15,760 --> 02:26:19,960
Ray Ray and but it seemed it it,
it certainly feels like he has a

2379
02:26:19,960 --> 02:26:23,200
good comfort level with him and.
He's he's operating in the 

2380
02:26:23,200 --> 02:26:26,520
intermediate zone too. 
During during that game on a 

2381
02:26:26,520 --> 02:26:29,640
night was he was, he was doing a
lot of the, you know, find the 

2382
02:26:29,640 --> 02:26:32,720
soft spot in the zone across the
middle or he was doing like the,

2383
02:26:32,800 --> 02:26:36,440
you know, 10 or 15 yard out 
stuff like Yeah, yeah. 

2384
02:26:37,320 --> 02:26:40,880
Especially Darnell Mooney was 
kind of doing the same thing. 

2385
02:26:42,320 --> 02:26:45,520
Yeah, Darnell, where Darnell 
Mooney finally made his hey, was

2386
02:26:45,520 --> 02:26:48,880
he, he had that, you know, deep 
shot where he he broke away for 

2387
02:26:48,880 --> 02:26:52,000
the incredible touchdown and 
then had the front flip into the

2388
02:26:52,000 --> 02:26:52,800
end zone. 
But. 

2389
02:26:54,440 --> 02:27:00,040
Well, I'm sorry, what I meant 
was it's, it's it's surprising 

2390
02:27:00,040 --> 02:27:03,640
that Mooney was a favorite 
target of Kirk as well. 

2391
02:27:04,000 --> 02:27:06,880
Yeah. 
That piece I'm I'm perplexed by.

2392
02:27:07,600 --> 02:27:13,400
I'm honestly like the, the, the 
information seems to be saying 

2393
02:27:13,400 --> 02:27:17,920
that he those two guys have 
Kirk's trust and that he's going

2394
02:27:17,920 --> 02:27:24,320
to use them a lot and and that 
it's somewhat working and but it

2395
02:27:24,320 --> 02:27:26,920
doesn't jive for me. 
It doesn't feel right to come to

2396
02:27:26,920 --> 02:27:29,520
that conclusion. 
And so I don't want to have 

2397
02:27:29,520 --> 02:27:31,960
like, that's kind of like super 
strong stance on it. 

2398
02:27:32,520 --> 02:27:34,640
So. 
So what I'm hearing is you'd be 

2399
02:27:34,640 --> 02:27:39,040
buying low on Drake London then?
Yeah, yeah, of course. 

2400
02:27:39,280 --> 02:27:43,000
OK. 
Let's see. 

2401
02:27:43,240 --> 02:27:45,920
OK, so there's. 
We do have, we do have an oh, go

2402
02:27:45,920 --> 02:27:48,520
ahead. 
Oh, there, there's a guy in the 

2403
02:27:48,880 --> 02:27:52,400
wind sprinter category here on 
this chart that I I really want 

2404
02:27:52,400 --> 02:27:54,960
to highlight ahead of the 
Thursday night game this week 

2405
02:27:54,960 --> 02:27:58,880
'cause I think he's actually a 
fun spot for short slate stuff. 

2406
02:27:59,400 --> 02:28:03,600
You know, like the prime time 
Palooza drafts on Underdog where

2407
02:28:03,600 --> 02:28:07,040
it's just the two gamers. 
You get the Thursday night and 

2408
02:28:07,040 --> 02:28:11,720
the Sunday night or for showdown
and that's Demario Douglas. 

2409
02:28:11,720 --> 02:28:15,960
So earlier in the show we 
mentioned how the Patriots 

2410
02:28:15,960 --> 02:28:19,360
offensive line is all banged up.
Literally every single starter 

2411
02:28:19,360 --> 02:28:23,120
is listed on the injury report 
with some more serious injuries 

2412
02:28:23,120 --> 02:28:26,000
than others. 
So they're probably going to 

2413
02:28:26,000 --> 02:28:28,360
have a hard time pass protecting
here. 

2414
02:28:29,200 --> 02:28:31,280
They're going to have a harder 
time running the ball even 

2415
02:28:31,280 --> 02:28:33,240
though we know they want to run 
the ball. 

2416
02:28:33,440 --> 02:28:35,720
But it's against The Jets outrun
defense. 

2417
02:28:35,720 --> 02:28:37,800
So it's going to be challenging 
there. 

2418
02:28:38,160 --> 02:28:42,080
And just this week, the coaching
staff said of Demario Douglas 

2419
02:28:42,080 --> 02:28:43,920
that we need to get him more 
involved. 

2420
02:28:43,920 --> 02:28:45,720
He's one of our most explosive 
players. 

2421
02:28:45,720 --> 02:28:47,320
We have to find a way to get him
the ball. 

2422
02:28:48,000 --> 02:28:53,320
This is like the Primo squeaky 
wheel spot for me. 

2423
02:28:53,320 --> 02:28:55,880
And it's it's not like Demario 
Douglas, some superstar where 

2424
02:28:55,880 --> 02:28:57,640
it's like, Oh my God, I can't 
believe we haven't been 

2425
02:28:57,640 --> 02:29:01,560
targeting Demario Douglas. 
But I'm reading the tea leaves 

2426
02:29:01,560 --> 02:29:05,040
here and I feel like this is a 
really good spot to attack 

2427
02:29:05,040 --> 02:29:07,840
Demario Douglas, especially just
from the the way the match up 

2428
02:29:07,840 --> 02:29:10,040
works out. 
He's he's running. 

2429
02:29:10,160 --> 02:29:13,200
I believe it's 82% of his snaps 
have been in the slot so far 

2430
02:29:13,200 --> 02:29:15,560
this season. 
So he is pretty that's like one 

2431
02:29:15,560 --> 02:29:17,480
of the highest slot rates you're
going to get. 

2432
02:29:17,560 --> 02:29:21,480
You know, so he's going to get 
to avoid some of The Jets best 

2433
02:29:21,480 --> 02:29:23,200
corner play. 
You know he he's getting to 

2434
02:29:23,200 --> 02:29:27,080
avoid Sauce Gardner, the name of
their other really good corners 

2435
02:29:27,080 --> 02:29:31,320
eluding me right now, but he's 
avoiding that their strongest 

2436
02:29:32,320 --> 02:29:35,960
coverage play and he's ideally 
set up to be able to take 

2437
02:29:35,960 --> 02:29:38,440
advantage of the fact that the 
patriots probably need to get 

2438
02:29:38,440 --> 02:29:40,920
the ball out quick. 
So I'm. 

2439
02:29:40,920 --> 02:29:52,800
Looking, yeah, 33% slot, right? 
Well, actually, no, no slot 

2440
02:29:52,800 --> 02:29:54,280
snaps. 
Yeah, Yeah, yeah, you're right. 

2441
02:29:54,280 --> 02:29:57,080
You're right. 
I assume the wrong map. 

2442
02:29:57,160 --> 02:30:02,360
You're right. 
We we do have a question in the 

2443
02:30:02,360 --> 02:30:05,440
chat before we go to the next 
chart or or not a question, but 

2444
02:30:05,440 --> 02:30:11,600
more of a a demand held hostage 
by KZ who demands that we talk 

2445
02:30:11,600 --> 02:30:16,480
about QJ who did in fact have 
two touchdowns this week. 

2446
02:30:18,040 --> 02:30:22,520
Man, you just you just wish that
it could go to lad Mcconkey. 

2447
02:30:22,520 --> 02:30:25,280
Just please use lad Mcconkey 
instead of QJ. 

2448
02:30:25,280 --> 02:30:30,280
But to Q JS credit as like a 
noted QJ hater, I have to say he

2449
02:30:30,280 --> 02:30:34,040
didn't drop the touchdown 
passes, which has been a big 

2450
02:30:34,040 --> 02:30:39,920
problem for him in the past. 
I'm hesitant to to say that it's

2451
02:30:39,920 --> 02:30:44,000
sticky and it's gonna stay, but 
I don't know what do you are. 

2452
02:30:44,080 --> 02:30:47,800
Are you, are you willing to 
revise your opinion your prior 

2453
02:30:47,800 --> 02:30:51,800
on QJ? 
And no, no, I am not. 

2454
02:30:52,400 --> 02:30:55,920
And we have, we have some and 
this is another one where we 

2455
02:30:55,920 --> 02:31:01,240
have some really strong rate 
stats and for one week of data 

2456
02:31:02,000 --> 02:31:05,800
or well in fairness we have two 
weeks now and but this is a 

2457
02:31:05,800 --> 02:31:10,520
really low, this is a really low
kind of like sample size. 

2458
02:31:11,040 --> 02:31:17,160
And So what do we got? 
We've got total we've got 51 

2459
02:31:17,160 --> 02:31:21,560
drop backs for this for this 
team. 

2460
02:31:22,520 --> 02:31:27,280
And then you've got like what 
what where are we coming in at 

2461
02:31:27,280 --> 02:31:32,360
the average and for QJ we're 
coming in and where is he on the

2462
02:31:32,360 --> 02:31:37,920
chart? 
He's coming in 62% and way to 

2463
02:31:37,920 --> 02:31:40,960
tigers per run. 
So like that's good that that's 

2464
02:31:40,960 --> 02:31:43,280
honestly good. 
And he's so he's getting he's 

2465
02:31:43,280 --> 02:31:45,480
getting our yards, he's getting 
targets on the fields. 

2466
02:31:46,120 --> 02:31:56,960
And but it's tough to see that 
kind of like good rates start to

2467
02:31:57,000 --> 02:31:59,960
to continue over a larger sample
size. 

2468
02:32:00,520 --> 02:32:04,560
Like, and then you catch 2 
touchdowns and a 22 drop back 

2469
02:32:04,560 --> 02:32:07,840
week and it's like, oh, wow, 
this guy's amazing. 

2470
02:32:08,240 --> 02:32:11,560
Like, I mean, I think he's a 
waiver pick up. 

2471
02:32:12,160 --> 02:32:17,160
Like I think I have a team we're
probably going to and put in a 

2472
02:32:17,160 --> 02:32:23,040
bid to pick him up, but it's 
truly like AI don't know 

2473
02:32:23,480 --> 02:32:26,120
dumpster diving like, oh, we did
something. 

2474
02:32:26,120 --> 02:32:29,080
Let's see if we can do it again.
Like, but it's hard. 

2475
02:32:29,080 --> 02:32:32,640
It is hard to have a lot of 
confidence that that will be a 

2476
02:32:32,640 --> 02:32:35,880
thing going forward. 
I see Steph had the note that 

2477
02:32:35,880 --> 02:32:40,960
leg up or pushing him back into 
where the dynasty ranks and I 

2478
02:32:40,960 --> 02:32:43,840
mean, he should be ranked in 
dynasty that that seems fair to 

2479
02:32:43,840 --> 02:32:49,760
me. 
And but like I said, it's hard 

2480
02:32:49,760 --> 02:32:51,840
to have a lot of confidence that
this kind of thing is going to 

2481
02:32:51,840 --> 02:32:52,720
continue. 
What? 

2482
02:32:52,720 --> 02:32:55,880
What do you think? 
No, yeah, I'm, I'm with you. 

2483
02:32:56,920 --> 02:33:02,080
You know, I, I don't want to. 
I'm a little conflicted because 

2484
02:33:02,560 --> 02:33:05,680
it's truly a barren. 
Like there's a reason that I was

2485
02:33:05,680 --> 02:33:10,480
willing to draft, you know, 
Jerry Rice junior, you know, 

2486
02:33:11,200 --> 02:33:14,960
because like it's a barren wide 
receiver room. 

2487
02:33:14,960 --> 02:33:19,560
So that's, that's the part that 
makes me a little bit more 

2488
02:33:19,560 --> 02:33:23,120
willing to be like maybe I'll, 
I'll pick him up on what I, I 

2489
02:33:23,120 --> 02:33:25,640
think you put it well, like you 
can pick him up on waivers. 

2490
02:33:26,560 --> 02:33:30,080
I'm, I'm not, I'm not like 
playing in, in DFS or, or battle

2491
02:33:30,080 --> 02:33:33,960
Royale or anything like that. 
But it's just like that. 

2492
02:33:34,080 --> 02:33:38,440
He was totally flat lined 
before, like I, I, you know, 

2493
02:33:38,960 --> 02:33:42,200
and, and now maybe like you 
heard, you heard a little. 

2494
02:33:42,200 --> 02:33:43,520
Something got 10 seconds of 
pulse. 

2495
02:33:43,840 --> 02:33:45,560
Yeah, you heard a little 
something on the heartbeat 

2496
02:33:45,560 --> 02:33:48,320
monitor, but you're not sure if 
it was just noise or whatnot. 

2497
02:33:48,320 --> 02:33:52,120
So anyway, we can move on to the
last, wider secret chart here. 

2498
02:33:53,200 --> 02:33:59,920
Yeah. 
This chart is mostly 

2499
02:33:59,920 --> 02:34:02,240
Windspringers. 
There's not a lot here. 

2500
02:34:02,320 --> 02:34:04,760
There's really only. 
Two guys on Jalen Waddle. 

2501
02:34:05,440 --> 02:34:07,920
Yeah. 
So Jalen Waddle with the, I mean

2502
02:34:08,160 --> 02:34:11,920
classic Jalen Waddle and you 
know, miss a bunch of snaps due 

2503
02:34:11,920 --> 02:34:12,560
to injury. 
He. 

2504
02:34:14,040 --> 02:34:15,640
Can't keep getting away with 
this, yeah? 

2505
02:34:16,360 --> 02:34:21,080
Surely, surely it changes. 
The only two guys I had notes on

2506
02:34:21,080 --> 02:34:24,040
that I wanted to get your 
opinion on Xavier Legette. 

2507
02:34:24,120 --> 02:34:28,680
Kind of same vein as the Deonte 
Johnson stuff we talked about, 

2508
02:34:29,040 --> 02:34:32,520
but Legette's got good weighted 
targets per route run. 

2509
02:34:32,520 --> 02:34:36,040
Now, granted, it it's come from 
a totally dysfunctional offense,

2510
02:34:36,040 --> 02:34:38,800
so that might change entirely 
with the new quarterback. 

2511
02:34:40,000 --> 02:34:42,600
But do you, are you interested 
in Legat here with Dolph? 

2512
02:34:42,600 --> 02:34:48,440
Yeah, yeah, the the rookie 
having this kind of like high 

2513
02:34:48,440 --> 02:34:51,720
weighted target spread run out 
the gate is super interesting. 

2514
02:34:52,120 --> 02:34:56,280
Obviously you do run this kind 
of risk that it's like on a low 

2515
02:34:56,280 --> 02:35:02,120
ish snapshare and like 5050 to 
60 is is not that bad. 

2516
02:35:02,640 --> 02:35:06,160
It's not like it's on like 20% 
or 30% right share. 

2517
02:35:06,720 --> 02:35:11,360
And but that that is some risk 
there that if they wrap it up 

2518
02:35:11,480 --> 02:35:13,520
that he can't maintain that 
efficiency. 

2519
02:35:13,760 --> 02:35:16,320
But to me, that's super 
interesting that you get a 

2520
02:35:16,320 --> 02:35:22,000
rookie earning targets on that 
kind of rate and then guess a 

2521
02:35:22,080 --> 02:35:25,880
yeah, QB upgrade that that that 
that could end up being really 

2522
02:35:25,880 --> 02:35:28,640
fun. 
So you want to, you want to hear

2523
02:35:28,640 --> 02:35:31,480
something disgusting? 
If you want a really creative 

2524
02:35:31,480 --> 02:35:34,800
way to lose your money this 
week, the Raiders and the 

2525
02:35:34,800 --> 02:35:37,640
Panthers play. 
The Raiders have shown us 

2526
02:35:37,640 --> 02:35:40,080
they're willing to throw the 
ball if necessary. 

2527
02:35:40,520 --> 02:35:45,160
The limiting factor here is 
going to be can Andy Dalton 

2528
02:35:45,760 --> 02:35:49,240
actually do something against 
the Raiders defense which was 

2529
02:35:49,240 --> 02:35:52,600
feisty enough to give Lamar 
Jackson trouble, right? 

2530
02:35:52,600 --> 02:35:55,840
So, you know, keep keep that in 
mind, but. 

2531
02:35:55,840 --> 02:35:59,520
Right. 
I mean, Andy Dalton has been fun

2532
02:35:59,680 --> 02:36:01,960
in the past. 
They're and Andy Dalton will 

2533
02:36:01,960 --> 02:36:06,640
sling it. 
So I'm I'm kind of thinking like

2534
02:36:06,640 --> 02:36:09,400
maybe a little little Brock 
Bowers, that tight end. 

2535
02:36:09,440 --> 02:36:12,720
And then I play the Andy Dalton 
double with a little Xavier 

2536
02:36:12,720 --> 02:36:16,120
Leggette, Deonte Johnson, 
absolute vomit stack and just 

2537
02:36:16,120 --> 02:36:19,920
jam chalk everywhere else. 
How stupid am I? 

2538
02:36:21,560 --> 02:36:27,080
Can you really play a 50% red 
chair guy unlike the Panthers in

2539
02:36:27,080 --> 02:36:29,120
DFS? 
I mean. 

2540
02:36:30,280 --> 02:36:32,600
I mean the answer can you is 
yes. 

2541
02:36:33,360 --> 02:36:35,600
Should should you is the better 
question. 

2542
02:36:36,400 --> 02:36:40,400
No, honestly, like the if you if
you want like a legitimate idea 

2543
02:36:40,560 --> 02:36:43,640
of how to play it, like you 
probably just do Deonte Johnson,

2544
02:36:43,640 --> 02:36:47,640
Andy Dalton's skinny stack with 
Brock powers and and just that 

2545
02:36:47,760 --> 02:36:50,640
that alone, you know, right, 
Andy Dalton's going to be 

2546
02:36:50,880 --> 02:36:53,560
bargain basement, so. 
Right, you heard it here first 

2547
02:36:53,560 --> 02:36:56,120
on stack chasing. 
You don't need to double stack 

2548
02:36:56,200 --> 02:36:58,800
Andy Dalton. 
You you don't need your. 

2549
02:36:58,800 --> 02:37:02,880
Skinny suck is fine. 
I might, but you don't need to. 

2550
02:37:04,720 --> 02:37:08,560
OK, last guy here. 
Another interesting one to touch

2551
02:37:08,560 --> 02:37:10,240
on before you get to the 
Thursday night game. 

2552
02:37:10,240 --> 02:37:14,600
But this guy scored his first 
NFL touchdown was also his only 

2553
02:37:14,600 --> 02:37:18,440
catch of the game, I believe. 
Is that Jalen Polk? 

2554
02:37:19,360 --> 02:37:25,080
So Polk looks Polk is doing the 
rookie wide receiver thing where

2555
02:37:25,080 --> 02:37:27,480
he's getting more usage week 
after week. 

2556
02:37:27,480 --> 02:37:30,800
He's earning more snaps. 
The other guys are like starting

2557
02:37:30,800 --> 02:37:34,360
to take more. 
Taekwon Thornton is he has fully

2558
02:37:34,360 --> 02:37:35,680
turned back into a pumpkin, 
right? 

2559
02:37:35,800 --> 02:37:37,040
You know, he's he's off the 
field. 

2560
02:37:37,040 --> 02:37:39,080
Jalen Polk is in for Taekwon 
Thornton. 

2561
02:37:39,480 --> 02:37:42,280
You're you're getting less of 
these, you know, pure dust balls

2562
02:37:42,280 --> 02:37:43,760
out there running routes for the
Patriots. 

2563
02:37:43,760 --> 02:37:48,240
So are we at all hopeful for 
Polk or is he just probably not 

2564
02:37:48,240 --> 02:37:51,080
going to be fantasy relevant 
until you get like a Drake May? 

2565
02:37:52,200 --> 02:37:57,640
So you've got the increase in 
red chair from 62% to 69% week 

2566
02:37:57,640 --> 02:38:04,560
over week and and that 69% came 
with a 14% target spread run. 

2567
02:38:05,320 --> 02:38:07,480
And so you do have some increase
there. 

2568
02:38:08,000 --> 02:38:14,040
And I think I mean, you, you 
have room to grow there. 

2569
02:38:14,320 --> 02:38:20,360
And with it being early days in 
his rookie season, but without 

2570
02:38:20,360 --> 02:38:23,320
AQB change, that doesn't feel 
like very promising. 

2571
02:38:23,320 --> 02:38:27,840
That doesn't feel like enough of
a standing to like, make it any 

2572
02:38:27,840 --> 02:38:30,560
kind of real bet on a guy, to me
anyway. 

2573
02:38:31,560 --> 02:38:33,360
Yeah, I agree. 
He's not. 

2574
02:38:33,360 --> 02:38:35,880
You can't play him in DFS, You 
can't play him in like full 

2575
02:38:35,880 --> 02:38:39,160
slate battle royales, like a 
prime time Palooza or a 

2576
02:38:39,160 --> 02:38:41,520
showdown. 
He's definitely viable. 

2577
02:38:41,960 --> 02:38:44,480
Right, right, right. 
Where it's basically a showdown 

2578
02:38:45,880 --> 02:38:49,120
in the prime time palooza. 
That he's not even, like he's 

2579
02:38:49,120 --> 02:38:52,760
not even a stash on, you know, 
in a home league or he's not 

2580
02:38:52,760 --> 02:38:55,080
even. 
Right in a short, in a short 

2581
02:38:55,360 --> 02:39:00,680
bench league, he's not really 
worth stashing, Yeah. 

2582
02:39:03,280 --> 02:39:06,520
Was there anyone else on this 
chart that you wanted to touch 

2583
02:39:06,520 --> 02:39:11,640
on before you wrap it up? 
No, I don't think so. 

2584
02:39:11,640 --> 02:39:15,560
I don't think do we have that 
much interest. 

2585
02:39:15,640 --> 02:39:20,080
I mean, yeah, I don't think we 
have that much interesting to to

2586
02:39:20,080 --> 02:39:22,240
say. 
I guess I'm looking at this 

2587
02:39:22,240 --> 02:39:26,360
chart and I'm kind of interested
in Jennings because like I know 

2588
02:39:26,360 --> 02:39:29,880
every every time I see him, he's
looking awesome. 

2589
02:39:30,600 --> 02:39:34,320
But then I'm like, oh, why is he
in the the low kind of like 

2590
02:39:34,960 --> 02:39:36,720
route chair? 
Is it the injury? 

2591
02:39:37,440 --> 02:39:47,880
So he's 58% week, 169% Week 2. 
So Jennings is probably like an 

2592
02:39:47,880 --> 02:39:55,360
OK and pick up with the Devo 
injury and if you're really 

2593
02:39:55,360 --> 02:40:03,040
truly in a pinch, but that still
feels pretty gross but worth 

2594
02:40:03,040 --> 02:40:05,680
mentioning on time. 
Yeah, yeah, it's a good call. 

2595
02:40:08,360 --> 02:40:15,080
Yeah, that's I do like that Matt
Collins is hidden behind the the

2596
02:40:15,080 --> 02:40:18,640
box thing here. 
Yeah, he is. 

2597
02:40:18,800 --> 02:40:24,680
He's sneaky there. 
But no more interesting notes, I

2598
02:40:24,680 --> 02:40:26,960
don't think. 
All right. 

2599
02:40:30,000 --> 02:40:37,640
So I think that's stack chasing.
We shaved a lot of time off of 

2600
02:40:37,640 --> 02:40:39,640
last week. 
Whole hour. 

2601
02:40:40,280 --> 02:40:43,560
And so we're now at 2 hours and 
40 minutes. 

2602
02:40:44,000 --> 02:40:46,560
And then thanks for everyone who
stayed on. 

2603
02:40:46,680 --> 02:40:52,160
I appreciate the love, Kazy. 
And that's it for me. 

2604
02:40:54,440 --> 02:40:55,360
See you guys next week.