Managing a heat wave here in sun drenched Western New York.
Good morning. I'm Mike Shope today on ADP
chasing. What are our heroes doing about
elite Q BS? Is Davis Maddock getting his
requisite 8.3% Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels?
Is Jacob Sanderson laying back and waiting out his rooms for
all the shares of Mr. Daniel J Dimes?
And I imagine Pat Crane from some beachfront property on one
of the coasts, merely just scooping up all the value,
sitting there in his robe, taking a puff from his pipe.
Ah, Brock Purdy, 2 rounds past ADP.
Don't mind if I do lovey. Is there any of that cab left?
Not the 2012. I want the good stuff.
That year was pitched like this stuff anyway.
That's terrible, sorry. Tuesday June 24th, 2025 ADP
chasing best ball country. Let's ride.
ADP chasing is for When you watch chip chasing, you go.
These guys are just football guys.
I. Have my 4% exposure blanket.
Stay poor, actually. Back in, if it's Austin A, it's.
Tear into our crystal ball. close your eyes.
You know all your entries are going to lose anyway.
Yeah. That's fair.
You're not going to tell me all this when I was here?
It's anti cabal, it's anti the best ball thought leader.
I'm obviously lying to some degree because like, I have a
lot of both of these guys. It's the most disgusting thing
you can make, but man. I literally had a fight.
That the best that the it's anti cabal version of Davis just
looks like Zach. No, but it does, yeah.
Yeah, I, I literally had a pipe that I forgot to bring down my
wife's grandfather's pipe. I thought was just I need, I
think I needed it, Pat. I think I needed it for the for
the. Yeah, that would have been
because when you started acting, I thought I I was like, why is
he talking to someone off screen?
What's what's going on? You, you're really in the moment
there. So.
I needed. I needed the pipe so to speak.
I thought, I thought I had one in here.
I don't. Directionally accurate.
I've got. I've got one around somewhere.
One of the beaches, one of the one of the coasts.
I was on, I was on the East Coast beach, went to Ocean City,
NJ, sleepy little dry town and we for family vacation, family
vacation. Vivian loved the water.
She was just running it. She would like we have her play
like with little sandcastle stuff.
You know, my her cousins were there and everything.
They're all older and you know, they're, you know, some are only
over by like 6 months. But there's like good little
group. And she would just like see the
ocean again and just kind of like get up.
And then she'd just like work her little way like up a little
dune and then like down. And then she would run into the
sea. Like she never looked back to
make sure I was there. She'd just go in the water.
Yeah, man, how? Do I just it's both like?
Scary and awesome. This child is 14.
Pat doesn't tell you, by the way.
She is 14 months years. Old.
Oh, OK. Yeah, it's hot everywhere.
Do we hate it? Davis doesn't hate it.
The heat. No, I mean, obviously I like, I
would prefer for it to be, you know, 72 with a you're a 78.
You want to be outside all day every time that it is 98.
I'm. Hoping you mean Fahrenheit 98
Celsius would be. So, so that is not exactly
right. I guess what I would say is it's
not going to deter me from doing outdoor activities if it's 100°
like I'm still gonna go golf and believe.
Pre show you said if you're from the Midwest, you want to be
outside during these temperatures.
That's that's a. Believe well, you're used to it.
You can't avoid it in the Midwest.
Maybe I also the other thing is like I love to read outside and
I love to to get the sun. Like I'm going to like actually
in the the hour in between the swole cast and then when I
stream, I'm going to go sit outside in the backyard with the
dog and fill up a kiddie pool for her and let her sit and and
get in. Honestly, what is a gross,
disgusting kiddie pool? And you know.
While you're reading a book and the pages are literally Catching
Fire from the heat outside as you read.
Yeah, it's it is, it is very hot.
It is like, don't don't get me wrong, right now in the Midwest
it is super hot and and the chat, if you're saying you're
from the Midwest and you don't engage in this, you're not a
real Midwesterner. You're.
You're I'm. I'm.
Or you're a coward. I I am a coward and I'm
deceptively familiar with this. People always think that
Winnipeg lives that we live in igloos 100% of the time.
That's not the case. Anyone who lives in like
Minnesota or North Dakota, we have the exact same temperature
as you, which means the the winter is like intolerably cold
and you'd think you get a nice chill summer.
You don't. Vancouver, where I now live is
literally paradise. It's like never snows, it's
never cold, and then it also never goes above like I'm trying
to do Fahrenheit. Is it rain there?
We. Get a lot of rain.
We get a lot of rain. I love rain, so that's not a
problem for me. Yeah.
So. When people say paradise, they
don't normally mean that it's raining all the time, just.
I love it's on rain all the time.
It rains like in November dude. Liking.
Rain, so it's.
Better than Seattle flag. Yeah, maybe it's a red flag, but
I, I'm a big rain fan for sure. I I like rain and actually this
I like rain for a specific reason and it's because I'm, I
love walking, but I'm really bad at like not pulling out my phone
when I'm on a walk and I never have as good of an experience
when I do that, but I can't stop myself.
But if it's raining then I will ruin my phone you.
Know what so I. I have no choice, let me just
like lock in on music or a podcast because the rain will
will ruin my electronic devices and then I just just get to
experience the outdoors. Pat's face right now, you might
as well be talking about Mary and Hosa.
By the way, no, no, this is this is this is a very non
derogatory. That's fair.
This is my face when my when my mind's been changed.
I I'm giving I. I don't like it, but I'm yeah.
I'm awarding Jacob some points for that answer.
Yeah, Cause 'cause normally what people say when like, oh, you
know, I love the winter, I love the rain.
What they mean is they don't like to physically move their
bodies like a day where they take a day where they take 1400
steps. It's like a a GTO day for them
which can't can't cosign that behavior.
I would say Buffalo is actual paradise because I love 50
inches of snow in 20 minutes once a year, so I need to put
Buffalo. On top.
Sorry. I didn't do, I didn't do that in
meters. Maybe next week we'll be we'll
go meters there, no. Inches and feet, you guys, you
guys actually win on that one. Inches and feet are better than
anything we have in the metric system.
I'm I'm strong Fahrenheit, Fahrenheit to me is Fahrenheit's
so much better than Celsius. No fahrenheit's for.
Babies fahrenheit's more it's for.
Babies. Fahrenheit, Each degree tells
you a smaller amount of information, which I want for
the weather. I want to be able to dial in
what I'm saying the weather is. I don't want to have to these
huge Celsius chunks just because that's the water boils at this,
so we have to have it as 100. That's stupid.
We're never going to be up in the high part of the range.
Water's about to boil. We'll die.
Yeah, I, I would love to do like, I would love to do like
blind weather test with pack of rain where we like have him
transported into 67 Fahrenheit and 64 Fahrenheit and he tells
me the difference of which one is hotter.
I'd like to know, Jacob. I like to know, I don't.
Think you would do as well as you'd think?
I was in Ohio weekend before last for lacrosse hot you know
Ohio heat pretty good and I learned that to play on underdog
in Ohio you have to download rankings you.
Just have to do. You just have to do.
Just one, yeah. You, you just, you literally go
Jamar Chase Peas and Robinson bang, you're in.
OK, yeah, I mean, I ended up just using the ones on the app.
I don't know why. What if you don't?
Know that here I'll 10. Bucks a month.
I'll break. Let me let me break your brain
even more. If you use an optimizer for
daily fantasy sports, it is legally written that you cannot
use the same projections and optimizations as everyone else.
You know, because that would be unfair.
So on rotor grinders on run of The Sims everywhere, you have to
manually adjust to projections. That could be excluding a guy
who projects for zero points. That could be changing owners.
It could be anything. But you cannot use the white
label. Like you cannot just go in and
click optimize and go because this was something that was
negotiated, you know, nine years ago by some drunk New York State
senator like Ethan Gate. Like truly like, so like this
is, you know, Jacob, you'll know this, this is the Gelman amnesia
thing for like all these people who don't know anything and are
not experts in fantasy sports had to make these rules.
But then, you know, we go talk about we, we go talk about
policy. And you're like, well, of
course, this person who's discussing the Iran, Israel
conflict knows everything there is to possibly know about it.
This article that I read. But yes, that is true.
And and it's the same rule why you have to do the 2 rankings.
I don't think I had to adjust anything, I just had to upload
them or do something to get them from wherever A to B you're.
Functionally adjusting it, that's what Davis is saying.
If you're doing a Sims product, I mean you literally David's
exactly right. You go and you can put the same
projection but 00000001 at the end and you've adjusted it.
Well, we made it work. Slide one before we get into
elite quarterbacks and then risers and fallers.
This is a fun one. Welcome to the squad.
Last week, my team on last call, Dante Thornton.
And you know, he's he's the buzz with the Raiders and Jack Bash
isn't, at least that's how it seems.
So who's got slide one for us? Pete, is it you?
Wow. That was me.
Look at. That, but what is?
What is? Pete getting credit for He's not
even here. This is.
I brought this. This is this is a great This is
a great bit. I didn't even know.
I didn't even know what the graphics were.
I meant Pete isn't you to like show talking shit on Jack Bash
because that's like. Oh, I'm your brand.
Someone have the slides? The slides came up.
No, you're right. Is it you?
It was a beat late. So I was like, it would be
plausible that Pete had to come in and put the slides.
Well, now it's too late doing it but it.
Wasn't that that would be that would be funnier if Pete was so
upset that the Jack Mesh slander slide was half a second late
that he logged in. Oh man.
We've got to get our Jack mesh slander up immediately.
That's what I thought. Well.
You know, you're kind of called it.
He is represented here with the T-shirt in the bottom right
we've got. Pete is going to be so mad when
he finally watches Dante Thornton play.
He's going to be like, this is the guy that I spent, This is
the guy that I was doing against Jack Bash.
I'm not. I'm not too worried about us
watching a lot of. Dante Thornton Yeah, Yeah, No,
incredibly good point. And I think it's it's so funny
that basically the conversation is well, well, Jack Besh is just
far too duplicative, which Kobe Myers and Brock Myers, they
could never possibly get him on the field.
I mean, you know what, you know who you know who are pretty good
players? Kobe Myers and Brock Bowers are
pretty good, pretty good players.
Feels like duplicating that skill set as opposed to
duplicating, you know, you know what?
I'm not real worried about duplicating the Trey Tucker
skill set. I think I'm, I think I'm pretty
fine not drafting a ton of the Trey Tucker skill set, but it
seems seems OK to me. You know who's like pretty good
Jacoby Myers and Brock Bowers. I think maybe I'll I'll take my
I'll just go ahead and go with the guy who had more receptions
than Malik neighbors and Brian Thomas Junior when they were
playing together in college. I think I'm good with that over
the guy who's at a school that by the way, and Jacob will back
me up on. The entire Tennessee situation
is designed to put up fake video game number for the
quarterbacks, for the running backs, for the wide receivers,
for everybody. And Dante Thornton couldn't even
put up fake video game number. He.
Ran like 25% of the routes because he can only run in a
straight line really fast. But but he does run in a
straight line. Really.
Fast, real fast. I I'll give him credit.
I'll give him credit. Yeah.
So I think Jack Besh and and by the way, this whole dude, it's
the Raiders. You guys are going all in on the
Raiders. First off, how did that all work
out for you last year with Brock Powers?
I'm going to suggest probably didn't work out very well for
you guys. The thing I will add on top of
that is Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly, you know, this ain't,
this ain't Josh McDaniels and whatever chuckle Dicks we're
calling plays on that offense. This is this is a, this is a
different and more competent offensive environment.
He didn't even think that Davis so far today, I.
Think I'm beginning to think that Davis is cold blooded that
that with with the weather warming up, he has come alive.
This is this man is. Is spitting far now let him.
And, and you know what? I, I really, I, I think the Jack
Besh stuff has gone too far and, and Pete deserves to be called
out for just drafting a ton of Thornton and no Besh.
Oh wait, he hasn't selected Thornton once.
It's early. It's still June.
Still June. That's that's very that's very
fake influencing from Peter to to So what how is Peter how is
Peter fading this second round wide receiver on a high end, not
high end offense, but but fast-paced offense.
And we're we're just saying I'm, you know, the Colin Cowherd,
Jack Besh. We're good.
We have Dante Thornton. I'm good you that's that's
honestly, I'm probably so old that that is like actually too
niche for this audience. This is like at this stage, this
is like a nine year old meme. Isn't that the where we have
Ben? Simmons, we have Ben Simmons.
Yes, yeah, there we go. So so I in other words, Dante
Thornton is the Dante Thornton, Christian Wilkerson, Trey
Tucker, Raheem Monster, Michael Mayer.
These are these are the Ben Simmons in, in my opinion.
And Jack Bash is LeBron James in the scenario.
Let's let me get Jack Bash is Zadrunas Ilgauskas in this
situation, and Bowers and Bowers is the Bowers is the LeBron.
Jacoby Myers is the the the the Boobie Gibson.
You know of the situation. Jack Bash is more of a Matthew
Dellavedova. That's actually a very good
comp. They're they're probably the
same height. They're probably.
As long as as long as none of them is the is the Charmander I,
I at least I can follow it. Yeah, that's well.
That might be the problem actually.
Jack Besh is the the Charmander of Kobe Myers.
Myers is the Charmeleon. Sorry everyone, sorry.
And Bowers is the Charizard. Charizard.
That's the problem. You don't want to be the
Charmander when you have a Charmeleon and de Charizard.
Is the Arctic char. Dante Thornton is Dante
honestly. Honestly, they got.
Fun. I don't know.
He's he's the magic park he's got.
He's just, it means it means that he's, he's for the fish.
You know the fish. Are.
Thing for the record, I didn't have that link when I said it.
I was just going on, but I came up a bit later.
That's good. You got to shoot 1st and figure
out what you meant later sometimes on this show.
That's for sure. Oh man, I don't know.
I mean, I think largely the best thing is like a little bit
overblown. He's he's going with he's
running with the twos and he apparently he's like looked
fine. And normally we don't get all
worked up if a second round receiver spends mini cams with
the twos. It's it's that in combination
with Thornton running with the ones and looking really good.
But. Is there actually an example of
panicking with the second round wide receiver running with the
twos that worked? I don't know, because the twos
are the twos. They're fine You.
Know he was like Sky Moore. Probably worked.
Well, I think, I think it was the person I was going to say.
There were in the preseason he played like no snaps with the
ones I remember that OK. If this was the preseason, I
would have a very, very different attitude about it.
I I am. Totally open.
I am totally open. Yeah, yeah.
I'm open to Bury and Jack Bash if it's like Christian Wilkerson
is playing better than him. I'm not I'm I'm not burying him
based on 1/3 sentence athletic blurb about how they're
concerned that his duplicative skill set is their two best
players. So it's the Yankee line.
Unless unless Nathan Yankee is tracking your snaps, then you
don't care who they play with. I mean, I sure I will.
I will adjust on each situation. This particular situation, I'm
not concerned, mostly because his actual biggest competition
is a player who's not even mentioned in this blurb.
His biggest competition for playing time is Michael Mayer.
That if Michael Mayer runs back his snaps from last year,
there's not enough meat on. The game.
For Jack Best, and I would like to hear more of that weighed in
upon the interesting thing in this offense obviously is that
Chip Kelly's stuff based on his NFL stuff does not work as well
in 12. But he might be.
He might be a different man, you know?
Right. Yeah.
We're getting to the point with Besh where he can play basically
none of the season and have a spike week once in the final
three weeks. It's. 14 round pick.
Golden yeah. So you're getting to the point
where I think he he's starting to make a lot of sense.
Not like as a smash because you there's still he wasn't a first
round pick. Like I took a lot of pure Sol
last year with just like the he's a first round pick.
They're going to get him on the field at some point.
That's being a second round pick and a weaker prospect.
Even the pure Sol, I don't feel as confident about that right
now. But if it looks like, you know,
he's a part of their plans, he's just not going to play right
away, then I'm going to feel, I think pretty good about him if
he's at these prices, you know, towards the towards the end of
the summer. On the riser's chart for today,
Deonte Dante Thornton. No, it's not.
Deonte Dante Thornton shows up some familiar names.
We've had a few of these guys, you know, in recent weeks.
JK Dobbins up top the list, Miles Sanders, Travis Etn, Rashi
Rice, Chuba Hubbard, George Kittle, DeAndre Swift, and
Isaiah Pacheco. It almost feels like last.
Week made me a madman when I was posting my 32% Miles Sanders
screenshots and now? Now look where we are.
Now look at it. 30 kicks of ADP later, I did not realize this
was happening. Literally like because I, I
don't know, I had a really busy work week last week.
So I think I did like 2 drafts and then I like logged in and I
was like trying to find Miles Sanders when I did a draft the
other day and I was like, wait, like, why isn't he around
anymore? It's around 17.
Like this is my, my around 17 pick.
And then I saw the 80s in the one 80s and I was like, my gosh,
like that. That's wild.
Yeah. What is is this going to keep
going up? Do you guys think like I I?
Don't I think so. I mean, he's, I don't think he's
that different than Jovante at this point.
Well, I think he's better. Right, except.
For price, except for price, that's it.
I'm not. I have had him ranked ahead of
Jovante in my initial BBM ranks. I then changed to be less
ridiculous. But maybe, maybe I'll have to
change back in a month. We'll see.
Yeah, I mean, I I'm at 18%, so not as heavy as as you went, but
I wish, I kind of wish I had your position on it.
It's the thing that's that's not fun is that like Miles Sanders
isn't good. And so you do have to you do
have to contend with with that element when you're considering
him. But neither is Jemonte Williams.
The Sacrilegious was sharing some stuff with us from one of
the beats and it was like, and right now they're there's
thinking that Phil Moffa might be ahead of Jaden Blue.
That's not good. And and that Kevonte Turpin.
I call. I'd like to.
I'd like to see that raise and I would like to immediately call.
The the concern I think for blue is that Kevonte Turpin, it
appears to be in favor and does kind of the blue stuff.
And then it's like, what do you need behind?
Like what don't you have? And the answer is a good early
down running back and so maybe Mafa.
Bad news for the Dallas Cowboys? They don't got one.
They don't got one, but they might be looking at Mafa being
like, are you good? And the answer's no, but but you
know, but blue isn't really that either.
So I don't know the the whole backfield is I I just want to
take the cheapest guy, I think, and and Sanders, even with the
rise is still that. So I've been I've been taking.
Blue and Sanders are gonna flip very soon when the best ball
cabal gets their way. They should flip.
Can I? Can I just?
Ask they. They definitely should not if
if. If all these contests just
dropped today, we forget everything about closing line
value. We try to unanchor ourselves
from ADP, unburden ourselves by what has been.
What do you think would be the like fair ADP for each of the
Dallas Cowboys running backs today?
And no one, no one. The the biggest part of this is
that everyone has to forget that Javonte Williams was once an
exciting second round pick, you know, during the first Obama
administration. Well, you don't have to forget
that. You, you, you can you.
You know everything you know about these players.
The only thing I'm asking you to forget is where their AD PS have
been in the 2025 best ball. In terms like what?
What do you think is the right ADP if all these contests were
dropping today? Right ADP Miles Sanders 137
Jaden Blue 149 Javonte Williams 174 Film off a 215.9.
OK, so if that was if that was the ADP, then I would just do
the exact reverse of what? I would just do javon.
And I would just take. Two, I think they should all be
around like pick 145 or something like that or 150.
Like we don't know anything like this backfield is the what what
we know is that it looks right now to be Javonte Williams and
Sanders is the the 1A and 1B and maybe not in that order.
So we we have this big gap between the 1A Javante who might
actually be the 1B and then down to Sanders and might actually be
the 1A. So I so I think hammering
Sanders makes a lot of sense, but then both of these guys
suck. So that opens the door for blue.
The problem is that in reality, maybe a running back, but in the
player pool, a wide receiver, Kevante Turpin might be kind of
their scat back type instead of blue.
And then maybe they mix in Mafa. So you're just like, if you look
at last year, Rico Dowdle was an awesome pick when he was like in
the 11th and 12th round. Zeke was going kind of in that
same range too, and there wasn't a third guy.
So I don't know, I think that the Javante price just doesn't
really make sense to me. That's the one where I'm like.
If you if you look at any of the like fancy stats like like yards
after contact, average miss tackle, I got a good one.
Can you can you highlight Jared Morgan's comment here?
He says I still don't get the Javante 8.
I will. I will solve this for you in one
stat. Javonte Williams had a worst
missed tackle force rate than Gus Edwards last year.
Gus Edwards had more wiggle and was more powerful than Javonte
Williams last year. So.
Yeah, Javonte Williams was running behind one of the best
offensive lines in the league and couldn't get anything going.
I mean he no backfield. Competition had all the
opportunities for two years in a row.
Yeah, rush yard's over. Expected he had -83 only guys
worse were Kareem Hunt and DeAndre Swift.
He had a success rate of 30%. Only guys lower than that were
DeAndre Swift. Again, maybe he's bad Travis
Etienne and Devon A Chan. So you get no explosion, no
consistency to Davis's stats there, no broken tackles.
He he's reliable as a pass blocker.
You get that, But like the, the success rate thing sucks when
you think about like, is he good in short yardage?
Well, no, not if he's got a horrible success rate.
That's like, you know, so you know, some of these guys who
aren't that explosive, they, they're at least consistent.
So I think. And Sanders?
Sanders sucks too. Like Sanders sucks too.
Like. He's also bad, but like, I don't
even really understand the idea. So the only thing Javante really
has over Sanders is pass protection.
But even at their peaks in the NFL, like Javante's peak in the
NFL was at a timeshare with Melvin Gordon as a rookie.
And then he got devastatingly injured.
And I think if he didn't get injured, he probably would still
probably be a pretty good running back.
But he did, and he's never looked remotely competent ever
since. I mean, at least with Sanders,
like his peak in the NFL in 2022 is frankly more impressive than
anything Javante Williams ever did.
He had 12169 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns and he got a
massive contract by the Carolina Panthers.
I think he's like pretty washed since, but I don't know, I think
he's like fine. Like he had, he had a couple
moments on the Panthers where he had some breakaway runs and or
breakaway after the catch place. I haven't seen Javante do that.
Javante 12.5% breakaway rate last year.
So it's just that that's like Hunter Lepke beat that.
So I don't know, I think Sanders is like should not be a starting
running back in the NFL and it's preposterous that he has a
chance to be. But I, I actually do think he is
legitimately a better runner. I think he's probably
legitimately the best runner on this team, which makes him like
the 77th best runner in the NFL. And it is insane that the
Cowboys don't have anyone better than any of these options.
But I, I, I do legitimately think on merit, he he is the
best option that they have. The thing about this, and I
guess This is why we spend so much energy on it, is the old
what do you win when you win game is a lot if you get the
right guy here. And I don't see why they would
need Mile Sanders and Javonte Williams to play any kind of
significant roles. Why wouldn't it be 1 or the
other for whatever reasons they go by to decide?
So I could see the rookies. Show up.
You're right, there's been a lot of this.
Like, people will just sort of do this glib thing on Twitter
where they're like, yeah, how did that work out for you idiots
drafting all the Broncos running backs last year?
And the answer is it worked out pretty good.
Those dudes just all absolutely sucked.
But if you bink this year's Rico Dowdell, who was fine, I don't
think anyone thinks Rico Dowdell is like an awesome player.
No, I was in on Rico Dowdell and I was never, it was never like
he's so, so good. He's good enough.
He's going to be good enough. So basically, if you get, if you
get a good enough fantasy season from any of them, a good enough
ability season, you were going to run into, you know, 12 and a
half, 13 points per game doesn't sound like much, particularly
the way a lot of the slappy idiots are drafting teams.
Guess what, man, 13 points for five consecutive weeks is going
to do a lot for your team. If you're fading Derrick Henry,
If you're fading CMC, If you're fading Breece Hall, If you're
fading Kyron Williams and you have, you know, Chase and and
all these dudes, that is going to matter a lot for your team.
Probably don't be building a huge position of Jaden Blue and
Miles Sanders if you're super overweight on all the early
round running backs. Doesn't make any sense for you.
But if you are drafting, you know, 4 wide receivers through
6, a lot of the time all these guys have the ability to help.
Chat is saying Dowdell didn't have any competition.
Dumbest thing I've ever heard. Franchise legend Ezekiel Elliott
was averaging, I think 13 1/2 touches per game before they.
I don't remember. Did he get hurt or they cut him
last year? I I like it, yeah.
No, he well, he was suspended at one point, but then he was
unsuspended and he just he, I don't know if he ever got
caught, but his role, he just. Got phased out.
I don't think he got cut. Yeah, I, I, they.
Yes, I remember that. Decreasing role, but actually
took a long time for Dowdell to really be that relevant because
right. The unfortunate thing was that
it never, he never really became the guy until like right when
Dak got hurt. Like I remember it was the game
against Pittsburgh, which I think was Dak's last full game
before he got hurt the very next week.
And that was when Dowdle like kind of officially took.
Over. I remember he smashed on
Thanksgiving, right? Didn't he?
He he, he like had, he had like a huge game of rush.
Against the Giants rush, he he had a few big games down the
stretch like 'cause once they got, I mean, that was.
The huge, huge week 14 I think. They ran the ball all the time
when they were in competitive script with rush, but then
sometimes they would just get blown out and then it then it
was over but. Basically, I, I am encouraging
all of you to use your critical thinking skills and and not just
do pattern matching for this thing that just happened is
going to be the thing that happens again and use that as
your guide here. I, I remain A Jaden Blue is the
only one that has an elite skill in the entire backfield.
So that is the one that. I What is that skill?
Speed he fast is. It also like a pass catcher.
Yeah, OK. He ran a 4.28.
His breakaway numbers sucked like you're talking.
About a guy who barely played, You're talking about a guy who.
Like the? Percentage of his own yards like
is low like he's not. He didn't break.
He didn't run long. No, he's a bad run.
Yeah, so like the speed thing, I'm like, I don't know, like
Woody Marks is fast, too. You breathe on when he falls
down. Like, he's not a good breakaway
runner. You know it's a problem.
Woody Marks is not Woody Marks is not 428 at his pro day fast.
You know who you know who the Elliot did get caught and the
chat is saying that Dowdle wasn't anything until Zeke got
caught. Which is both not true but also
very funny if you just think about it for like 2 seconds.
That like this guy never would have done anything if the team
didn't cut his competition. I had I had another, Oh, you
know who the the top 2 Rotaviz box score SIM SIM comps are for?
Jaden Blue. It's literally exactly you'd
expect. It's Naheem Hines and Chris
Thompson, two guys who were basically useless NFL players,
but their teams it two different seasons.
The the two different seasons kind of were forced into playing
them and guess what they were they were pretty good.
You you won a really high end Jaden blue comp.
I'll I'll give you the I'll give you the moon shot.
It's a version of Raheem Mostert that got drafted.
Raheem Mostert was always a part time player.
Actually was recruited to Purdue as a a track athlete, bounced
around on four NFL teams before we ever found a role.
The 49ers just let him go right, because he couldn't stay
healthy. Super Binks for the Miami
Dolphins. I mean, I like these guys are
similar archetypes of players, fast guys who like didn't play
their best football until later. Yeah, imagine.
Imagine fading rookie Jaden Blue when he's going to crush in
2031. Dude, I, I Pat, I Derek pat.
I'm asking you to guess how many receptions rookie Naheem Heinz
got. 17. No, he had a bunch.
That was the he got installed right away.
That was the year. It was super annoying.
I mean, you're the Colts guy, but that they wouldn't use
Donovan Taylor as a three down. No, that was that was actually
20/20. His rookie year was was not that
his rookie year was the year that Marlon Mack got hurt and
then he they tried 90 miles as like the real running back and
then they eventually settled on Jordan Wilkins and then I think
Mack eventually got reintegrated.
Anyway, the answer is 63. He had. 63, I guess 60.
As a rookie. Oh, I didn't hear you, so it
doesn't count. The chat chat backed me up I
guess 60 it was within 3. We believe you.
He also had 63 receptions 2 years later, which was the
Phillip Rivers Jonathan Taylor year.
Yeah, Nahim Hines, that's yeah, that's been basically my comp
for blue all along too and is pretty obvious one and yeah.
And and while we're here, he had two kickoff return touchdowns in
one game six days after DeMar Hamlin went down.
Not bad, just. Just keep an eye on Cavante
Turpenhype because he like. The problem is that they might
already have a guy who's going to play that exact role.
All right, here's a here's a good here.
Let's let's do this. Let's do this good bit.
That's fair. Everyone guess how old Cavante
Turpin is. This will be This will be a fun.
Bit is this, is this like the Rico Dowdle thing where I
thought I was second year player and he's a fifth year?
This is it is exactly. 28 because he was in like the USFL
for a while or. Something August 27.
He he is. He is 28 and turns 29 this year.
Wow. So I can go.
Yeah, so basically the point being, you know, I think we love
to bet on these things. Kevante Turpin.
You know what? Kevante Turpin is really fun
theory player. Really fun in theory to be like
wait. Wait, wait.
And how would you describe Jaden Blue?
Jaden Blue scored. Jaden Blue had to.
I think, I think it was a rear, yeah.
Yeah, they're both in theory. Jaden Blue had how was rosters
in theory? OK.
That's a, that's a fairpoint. Yeah.
I've used this comp before and gotten pushed back fairly on it
because they're very different types of of players physically.
But this does remind me of the year in Atlanta.
So we were trying to figure out who the running back was and
we're we're willing to take Quadri Otleson.
We were taking that random school FA, who I cannot remember
for the life of me. Yeah, JV and Hawkins and it was
Mike Davis. It was the year Mike Davis is
going like the fifth round, which is absurd.
Patterson and it The answer was quarter L Patterson, but he had
wide receiver eligibility and on the best.
Thing I've ever done in my life was I actually drafted quarter L
pass. I drafted I I had like I had
like 20 quarter L Patterson teams that year and didn't win.
If it wasn't going to happen for me, then it's not going to
happen for me. Now, well, it's.
Only. Is the is the overall point here
that Turpin is not to be ignored?
Sounds like it Turpin's not to be ignored.
I think Turpin's a part to this backfield in the in a way that's
that's, you know, not official for us, but is going to impact
the other guys and potentially blue and, you know, might be the
only guy who's worth a damn at all in this.
The other this the last point on this would be Miles Sanders last
year only saw 55 carries he had -44 rush yards over expected.
He was worse on a per touch basis than Javonte Williams in a
backfield in which Chuba Hubbard was the third most efficient
back in the league in rush yards over expected behind only
Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley.
So there's every chance that Sanders completely sucks and is
even worse than Javonte Williams and we just haven't seen it as
recently. So to me, this is like, it's all
about price like this. Second it to Jacob's point
earlier. If Sanders is going in the one
30s and Javonte Williams is going in the one 70s, I would be
hammering Williams because I think, you know, the whole point
here is I might be able to bank a starter for cheap, but it has
to be cheap. It has to be like very cheap
because there's a real chance here that that just all these
guys just totally suck and that Hunter Lipke, who we haven't
talked about yet, is getting some some third down stuff and
maybe. Even some goal lines.
Lupke is going to play. Lupke's going to play.
I mean, God, I can literally cannot believe we're doing 30
minutes on this, but Lupke is going to play.
Lupke is going to play a lot but but I will cause.
Javante just kind of is Hunter Leuke.
So, yeah, but what's not, you're not wrong.
What I will say is that this is this is kind of a new, this is
kind of a new phenomenon. Leuke's better, dude.
Have you guys been noticing this trend of like running?
Back for batch between Karin Javante and Hunter Leuke Leuke,
I think the odds would be like Javante.
One, one. No, no, he get, he'd be like
-170 it wouldn't, he wouldn't hit the two hundreds, you know,
'cause everyone would be too nervous.
Lupke, Lupke will play, but not in the way that people are
thinking. Lupke will play in the way that
like go look at the Bengals snap distribution from last year and
you see like Drew sample played 30% of the snaps.
I, I don't remember, I don't remember Drew Sample touching
the ball once like Lupke is like they're full back, they're 4th
running back, they're third tight end like his special team,
Patrick's card. I just want you to get one
start, one start so we can get the Sam Sherman tweet about how
he's actually full back and no one should be talking about him
starting this week. Yeah.
We've talked about a lot of these other players on the
risers list, you know, numerous times even.
I think ETN is interesting. It's a pretty good move based on
what maybe it's two weeks in a row do.
We have him last week too? And we've talked a lot about
Jacksonville and, you know, we did get to double.
Like people, people react very strongly to very limited
information, right? Like we talked about this with
Bash. You know, I think it's with
Sanders, it's, it's what it's like that one tweet about he's
getting reps with the first team.
With ETN, It's it's I think similar stuff.
It's yeah, it's definitely like you get there's these uncertain
situations. They're still uncertain.
We get like a tiny little piece of the puzzle and people react
very strongly to it cuz there's nothing else there.
We'll see. I'm like ETN is now going ahead
of Cam Scatabo. That's so tough.
I mean, I wasn't really that in on ETN before, but I could see
the case now. I think it's too rich for me,
but I don't know, maybe. You guys are more I, I see the
case, the case is that he he he came out of the wilderness of
being injured. He is like honestly,
stylistically, if you think about the good ETN, he is more
stylistically like Bucky Irving in the Liam Cohen offense,
whereas Tank and Laquint and and Tooten are sort of like, I don't
know, I guess maybe Tooten is closer stylistically too.
But Tooten is a a fourth round pick.
You know, fourth round picks don't hit all the time.
What it is is it's a Lindy effect in which every day that
ETN is not traded cut or that the coaching staff says it's a
three man battle, may the best man win.
People will gravitate towards what ETN has spent in the
starting running back for the Jaguars for as long as, you
know, underdog fantasy has existed effectively.
So we're just going to keep taking that guy.
I would guess that is probably not reflective of the true
probability. I, I, I kind of think the true
probability is like 30, three, 3333% in terms of like who leads
this backfield in rushes. And it will be sort of fluid.
OK. I, I've been, I've been less
bullish on Bixby than that, but I think it's ETN or, or Tootin
will have a, you know, I think, I think Bixby would be a dog to
those guys, but. What is?
I think it's.
ETN in week 1 and then I think it's what does he depends on?
Go for it. What is he good at?
What? What does he do?
Speaking of, you know, Jaden Blue and his one trait, What,
what, what am I getting from Etni?
Maybe I just have too many memories of him getting, you
know, six goal line carries in a row and not scoring or
something. Like I, you know, his pass
catching got knocked coming out. What, what, what, what, what's
the upside? I mean not in terms of a team
context, but a player 1. What is he good at today or what
did he, what did he, what was he good at like a couple years ago?
Because. I I don't if he wins the job
through rational coaching, why would it be?
I mean, I always thought ETN got overheated during his peak
because I think a lot of people I thought were, were kind of
stubbornly out on him from time that he was a prospect.
I think he's a better pass catcher than he's given credit
for. I don't think that a lot of the
concerns about his pass catching are necessarily translated, but
I I do think that he's a as a runner, he's extremely reliant
on athleticism because he's kind of a straight line guy.
And he's just at least to me, hasn't showed the same juice
since like, I mean, not even really 2023, like early season
20/23/2022, but like latter half 2023, all of 2024.
And and to the injury stuff, like I don't sure, but like he's
always banged up like he every every year he's been better at
the beginning of the season than the end of the season.
So I I think it's fair to say. That he runs, he has the.
Durability concerns as a workhorse and not even as much
like durability concerns as in he will won't play, but we've
seen his efficiency tail off from start of season to end of
season 3 consecutive years. I think it's kind of a fair
trend now as a running back in particular.
They warm out. As the starter in Week 1, but I
I still think that if Tootin gets a chance to play, and I
think he will at some point, I just think he's going to look
better. See.
Under 4 yards per carry each of the last two years.
Care about that? It's a it's a bubble gum card
stat, but still. All right, Pat, anybody on this
list do you want to jump in on? We had a few of these guys last
week when you were away. Rice is going to keep rising, I
think. This isn't the end of it, yeah.
Kittle too. Kittle, I mean, Kittle's been
one of the best picks on the board the whole way, so that
makes sense. Chuba, I think is almost like
almost kind of like replacing Mixon to some degree.
Like you're like, and Harvey and Harvey, yeah.
So almost has nothing to do with him.
So it's it's a little silly at the same time, he was very good
as a runner last year. I think on underdog in
particular, I'm I'm willing to kind of go there where it's it
feels a little fragile on one level, like the zoomed out view
is kind of fragile. It's like, you know, this on
didn't end up getting. He was, I was going to say
unheralded. He was heralded and then he was
unheralded in his after his final season.
But he, you know, there's a little bit of pedigree to the
prospect profile, but not as much as you'd like.
Takes him a couple years to establish himself, but I think
he's good. He's just not much of A pass
catcher so it's a little bit limited.
That seems fine. The Pacheco 1A.
Hotter prospects? Sorry.
Oh, I think we lost. Shows no, I, I'm I think I'm a
little bit wonky here, so I'll, I'll come back.
The Pacheco one I kind of get. So it's the same thing.
It's the same thing as ETN every day he's not injured every day.
We don't have Andy Reid gassing up Rashard Smith or Eli Mitchell
or Kareem Hunt. It it's.
It's the. It's the.
Well, Kareem Hunt's going to make the roster, it looks like.
I am not that certain. I I feel like to me it kind of
feels like a Max one Eli Mitchell, Kareem Hunt situation.
I think they did a very small low amount of it's only $1.5
million with a low amount guaranteed for Kareem Hunt.
That felt like insurance for me based on, OK, we got Pacheco in
camp. How healthy is he?
Can we put do are we putting Pacheco on the pup like
whatever. Because Eli Mitchell, if you
guys remember so long time ago, he was the first signing of free
agency. It was the first tweet that
Schefter sent. Like I, I think they, I think
they wanted Eli Mitchell and the the hunt.
Was they sent out like a like like the way you would in
Madden? You're just like you'd throw out
like a bunch of the same shitty offer.
And then Mitchell was like, oh, sick, I'll.
Do it well, probably I don't like like if Rico Dowdle off
1000 yard season got the exact same contract, there probably
were not a ton of good offers out there.
But if you're Dowdle, you're not going to insta accept a shitty
offer. You're like, hang on, hang on,
let me go see But Eli Mitchell. You're like, yeah, this sounds
great. Yeah, yeah.
Well, I was going to say this does also come down to like
philosophically, what are you thinking the Chiefs offense
wants to be this year? Like do you think they are
comfortable running back what they've been the last two years?
Because if so, Cream Hunt is a better fit for that.
Cream Hunt. 0 explosive runs last year, Started 13 games, had
no runs over 20 yards. Eli Mitchell, very, very
explosive runner in his car. I think he's got like a, a 32%
breakaway rate or something. But he just like really
struggles to be available. He's like the most injured
running back in the league. So if you think Chiefs are
totally fine, just like dinking and dunking, you know, Mahomes
plays like Gardner Minshew, who ironically is now his back at
quarterback, right? And that's so funny.
If you think they are going to do that again, then probably
Kareem Hunt is the one you're taking.
If you're more of a glass half full guy, I think Eli Mitchell
is the one you you want. And I mean, if you want to do,
if you want to do a little bit of pattern matching.
Richard Smith and Roshi Rice were, funnily enough, not only
just college teammates in the wide receiver room together at
Southern Methodist University. Davis, are you out on
Pachecoven? Are you saying, 'cause you're
more? Last week Mitchell came up.
I think you've been more consistently.
The Chiefs are not going to revert to their fun form.
Yeah, the the I mean, my my skin in the game answer is that the
Chiefs player I've drafted the most this year is Prashard
Smith. He's the cheapest.
He's got the widest range of outcomes.
From doesn't make the team to is the McKinnon to is the like.
He could also kind of occupy like a Hardman.
What was his name? The Oregon guy who now is insane
on D Anthony Thomas style style role on the on the team.
And if if they are fun, if the Chiefs revert to form, Smith is
the one that can just be like generating explosives left and
right. Who was in the world not?
Go ahead, Sir. No, you go, Pat.
I was because there was the 2 Williams, there was Daryl
Williams, which isn't correct. It wasn't as fun, but.
Damien. Damien Williams was the pun.
And that's that's the. Rightful Super Bowl MVP.
Yes, correct you can say. It please, please, please do not
like the literally the worst financial run bad of my life was
him not winning that sorry. Slowly followed by Cadarius Tony
at 100 to 1 not winning Super Bowl MVP two years ago when he
went down on the five for the for the punt.
By the way, Davis, in that game, one of my best hits was Mahomes
rushing under and he crushed it like in the second quarter, but
then on his kneel downs he ran back 6 yards on each.
One, he runs in the Super every time they've been in the Super
Bowl, he he's the the first Super Bowl win, he lost 20 yards
on his final kneel. Down.
That was the game, right? That's Damian Williams game,
isn't it? That's their first San
Francisco. Anyway, correct on Smith, yeah.
Smith is the guy I want to believe in and the thing I like
about him is that it's not maybe just a a McKinnon type of role.
Like he actually he was a real running back in his final
season. And this does feel like the
depth chart is open. I mean, Pacheco on the one hand,
it could be the injury and he's going to be back to being
Pacheco. On the other hand, this is kind
of where dead zone backs live now like this ADP, everyone's
fallen and what could be more of like a dead zone profile.
This he's in the final year of his deal.
He was a seventh round pick. The last time we saw him, he
looked like absolute trash. He was being committed by Kareem
Hunt, who was gigawashed. And then we have this this guy
who comes in who's actually explosive, a good pass catcher.
The it's like if if I get any kind of the second, I get a
report that like Smith is making this team.
I already got it. It's already.
Bag. I haven't seen that.
Send it. Send it along.
Sweeney Sweeney Sweeney said the first day of rookie mini camp
that he's trending towards making the team because he's
such a good kick returner. Yep, all.
Right. I want better than trending.
I want, I want trending. Yeah, trending is not.
Let me here. I will, I will, I will.
I will find it right now. I want I want lock.
Idea I want he's he's in, he's the kick returner.
If he's the kick returner, I mean.
I mean, I got a new round pick. I can't draft 30% Mile Sanders.
Anymore I'm. I'm just going to.
Yeah, I'm just going to hammer. Hammer Burchard Smith I.
I agree so much, Pat Like I, I think with Pacheco especially
because there's, to me, there's like a lag where I think the
wide receiver tier extends just a little farther than the
running back tier does. And I look at the guys that go
like only really one round, maybe a round and 1/2 ahead of
the Pacheco, the Aaron Jones, the Swift, Swift's also on this
list. And to me, it's like I'm looking
at guys like James Conner, Alvin Kamara, the RJ Harvey, Trevion
Henderson, like I don't even Judkins.
Those guys seem like so much better bets to me than the group
of like Pacheco. They have to be Rob and Aaron
Jones. Where like that, You know, I, I
can't really say the Pacheco's price in his rank among running
backs is unfair or unreasonable, But like the running backs just
ahead of him seem like way better to me.
Whereas I look at the wide receivers and I, I feel not that
way. Like I feel like the wide
receivers that you're looking at at the end of round six are not
that meaningfully different than the group that I can look at at
the end of round 7, early round date like I look at.
Downs. If we were just re ranking,
wouldn't downs? Wouldn't downs be in the 6th?
Like why is it downs in the middle of the 6th?
Right. What would you not make this
list yet? I don't know, Checo versus
Downs, I mean, frankly, even Pacheco versus Pittman, I mean,
frankly, even versus a guy like a Buka, I'm like, I would way
rather just click on those wide receivers and then draft the
running backs a little bit earlier than than, you know,
draft the wide receivers in five and six and then draft like,
because it's yeah, like that group is either like Aaron
Jones, who might be totally washed, Pacheco and Swift who
are like purely drafted on their situation that everyone agrees
sucks. Yeah.
And and Brian Robinson is like almost no upside.
It's it's like to me that falls off a Cliff where that is like
the classic dead zone of like, well, there's a few more and.
You're running backs. Left.
Yeah. And it's like these guys are the
RB-1, but no one really believes in them.
B Rob. I was asked the other day about
B Rob. I didn't get to it in a in a
comment, but it was like, it's like he's you talk about a guy's
being drafted purely for like the team he's on, not even for
the situation exactly because the situation is is that he's
like an early down guy who doesn't have a total lock on
those touches. They're going to design some
stuff you'd imagine for Debo and they're going to throw to Debo
and Eckler and they do a bunch of short stuff like that doesn't
really involve Robbins. So it's it's like at best you're
like sick. I have this like pretty solid
RB2 and at worst, you know, you're like this guy, he does
nothing for me. It's not that he doesn't have
any touches. It's just like he he just rarely
hits my roster like I can. I can never get any juice out of
this, this ninth round pick or eighth round pick.
So yeah, I mean, you go up a couple rounds and you're looking
at guys like Camara, you know who we just took in the main
event, Great pick, but like his nothing.
You guys are just broken. I haven't watched it yet.
I'm trying to track down this. I'm trying to track down this
Sweeney quote about about particularly.
Sorry, I I was reading early voting data in the New York
mayoral race. That was that was a test.
You guys failed the we I have no.
Idea what you said, I haven't changed like I just did my turn.
I've been checking on the product.
No, but like, OK, so Kamara is like the the grossest click
ever. Yeah, but he's going to he's
going to be like an RB-1 for as long as he's healthy.
The whole team's probably going to run through Camara.
It's disgusting. And it's going to be all volume
driven and it won't hold up which.
Is now what I'm assuming is the joke you made 2.
Minutes. That is the joke that I made.
The joke is that you want to take him in the fourth round in
the main event because that's what we did, because we timed
out. That's.
How you do it, that's how you do it's mused.
That's how professional does it. You look at Camara's floor, it's
still like reasonably high. There's not that much
competition, you know, in the 1st.
Half of the year. Yeah, it could really hurt you
relative to the the opportunity cost.
But like compared to DeAndre Swift, he's got a higher floor.
Compared to like a Pacheco, he's got a higher floor and he has a
higher ceiling. So I just, I completely agree
that like the like waiting for this kind of group of running
backs is, is probably not the right way to go unless you're
hammering like scataboo and tootin.
Honestly, I think ETN still has more upside to the offensive
potential. Yeah.
And and at least ETN has like been really good.
I don't think he is anymore, but he has been really good in the.
Past you can talk. Yourself into a scenario in
which he is again, if he if he's a really good running back this
year, like just independently a situation like he just plays
really well. I will be surprised.
But I wouldn't be stunned if if like Isaiah Pacheco or DeAndre
Swift play as like an actually value adding real life running
back. I would be quite stunned by by
that development If they if they survive the season as the
starter and finishes the RB 17. That's seems yeah, possible to
likely. Yeah.
But like, that's not that scary to me if I'm fading them.
Like that will not be the reason I have a bad year.
There's also Tony Pollard in this in this grouping, by the
way, There's a lot of. Name Pollard is also like really
fragile yeah cuz it's it's to me like Pat said like the the the
fragile bets and six at least are fragile with a lot of upside
like Camaro and Connor. You can you can at least see
like I think way more upside. And then and then there's all
these really fun rookies that are.
Good. Swift and Pollard I think are a
little bit different than some of the other like Swift and
Pollard I think have a little bit more upside than even like
you know, certainly than Brian Robinson.
Pacheco's tough because if he just recaptures everything,
maybe he does get there. But but Pollard, I mean, you get
the you get the quarterback upgrade, you get the willing to
use him as a as a workhorse running back.
It's kind of like discount Chuba is what is what you're hoping
for there. So but you don't have like game
breaking upside. I do agree.
With that, Pollard's a bit more like Aaron Jones to me, where
you get a guy that like used to be really good.
He's still OK but is not as good anymore.
It's but not bad yet could become terrible at like any
moment given age and injury history.
And then you also have another guy there who the coaching staff
keeps talking about how they want to make it more of a split
and you're kind of betting that the coaching staff is lying to
you, which makes it, I don't know, it makes it scary to me to
bet on an old running back that the coaching staff says they
want to use less. But I understand how it could
work. Out where?
Where are you at on Spears that I've had trouble getting excited
about talking shit? Ton of Spears.
OK. I don't think he's that great
and he's he literally only has 1ACL.
I think he's good. I I, I legitimately think he's
good. I I mean I've that obviously
didn't work out very well. Well, it didn't work out very
well for most of last year. He's a weird player where he was
like actually awesome down the stretch and normally those
players get way over drafted the next year, but I feel like
everyone's memory hold that entirely.
Like I feel like no one remembers that he was actually.
I don't know what that is. I agree with that.
I don't know what that is. It could be a tendency, the
Titans thing. There was a night game in Miami
where Miami needed it and just gave it away, and Spears might
have scored twice in that game. It was a kind.
Of a he did that was that was an early game.
And that was the that was one of the worst beats I've ever had
actually, because I remember I had a team in the main event
that Pollard scored a completely meaningless touchdown when
Tennessee was already up by like 2 or 3 scores.
And Spears have been playing the whole fourth quarter and they
subbed Pollard back in for one touchdown.
That beat me and I like almost anyway.
Thinking of I think would have been would have been two years
ago maybe, but still. Oh, I remember.
That was oh, I remember that game, the one that was the 1-2
years ago when they variable went for two down 14 and then
they got it and then they then Hopkins scored the game when he
touched it. Yeah, I remember that one.
And Mostert scored twice late when I needed to beat Mostert to
get to the playoffs and he had nothing scored anyway.
Two years in a row with Tennessee, Miami night games.
I don't know. I think, I think Spears is like
clearly indecisive. I think Gretzky said this on the
projection show with Leone. Two years in a row, Spears has
had over 8 yards after the catch per reception.
Pollard has been under 5 in each of those last two years.
Yeah, yeah, Pollard Pollard's decisively at this point.
Decisively Spears the much better pass down back.
And I mean, we've only seen him in a change of pace role.
So it's hard to have like that much confidence of what he is a
rusher. But he's he's had some
interesting miss tackle force indicators that strikes me as
saying like he's at least like a confident rusher.
And I think that if Pollard were to go down, you're you're
getting a very interesting contingent outside bat and I
think you're getting a pretty good stand alone role.
So to me, like he's like kind of a younger, more ascending
version of like the Ramondre Naji bat where it's like a
timeshare plus contingent value. But to me, instead of Ramondre
and Naji being guys that are very front weighted where it's
like they're going to start maybe in a 5050 and then
probably gradually decline over the course of the year.
Spears you're you're hoping maybe starts as a 3565, but
could potentially ascend over the course of the year.
I I just find that a more interesting version of that bat.
Jacob, have you considered that he's too wittle?
Too little. I haven't considered that, but
I'm gonna ponder on it. Yeah, you've got time.
Now I wanna make sure we spend some time on the quarterback
topic that we advertised. So let's.
Comment really caught me. Don't put it on the screen all
right? Or do.
It's about his own mom. I think if it's your own mom,
you can. I mean this, you know, it's a
proud son. It is a really weird joke to
make about your own mom. It's like you always have the
jokes, but there's a it's an undervalued field of my Mama
jokes. My Mama jokes.
We've got the chat asking we might need to move on to
Ballers. Ballers, we've we've talked
about Jack Bash already today. Luther Burden, Travis Hunter,
Have we talked about any of these guys before?
Xavier Worthy and well, let's let's get.
Status check from Jacob on on defensive back Travis Hunter.
Yes, yes, I mean, Oh my God, those two tweets were incredible
stuff by the Jaguars because literally they were released at
like the exact same time. And you know, you check the
quote tweets and it's like the DB one got like five times the
amount of quote tweets as the wide receiver one because, you
know, fantasy people got to get got to get their their their
interactions. I wrote up my most recent sub
stack post is all about Hunter and it's specifically not in
response to those social media posts, but in response to I
think a pretty substantive and meaningful James Gladstone
interview where he said, you know, don't read too much into
that. He's played a lot more offense
than defense and camp. That's because it's more complex
to learn the offense and the defense and because he's more
natural playing defense from college.
We're probably going to have him wrap up on defense more
throughout the summer and he's going to play both ways.
And I think that that's that's a meaningful take for sure and is
a little it's, it's AI think a different framing of what
they've done than some of the comments Liam Cohen made
immediately after drafting him and what you'd read into the
practice data. So I did a piece just sort of
trying to articulate a range of outcomes based on, you know,
take away X number of wide receiver snaps for defensive
snaps and how, how do we think that would affect his overall
target share output? I think that the thought is a
little bit overstated because one, I think there's like a firm
floor at about like 120 to 140% of total snaps.
If if you if you say like he plays 100% of offense and
defense, if you all that 200% snaps, I think it's like a firm
floor of 120 to 140. Because if you're only going to
play him like half the snaps on both, that doesn't make any
sense. You'd rather just play him 100%
of snaps on one and not have him learn 2 positions and fuck up
all your rotations. The only benefit to playing in
both ways is if you're playing in more snaps then he would
otherwise play if he just played one side of the ball full time.
Like otherwise it's just completely.
Irreal. They have also talked up his
stamina and it's a pretty big way.
They're just like, he literally does not get tired.
And we should just, yeah, like accept that that is a thing he's
able to do. And it's crazy.
But like we're, we're seeing it and we want to, we don't want to
ignore that. Right.
And and he played like, I think it was over 1400 snaps last year
total in a much shorter season. So, so I think that there's even
if he if he plays basically equally on defense and offense,
I still think he's going to play 60 to 7060 to 75% of the
offensive snaps. And I think that it's reasonable
to suspect that a disproportionate portion of his
offense snaps that he sits are going to be run plays, not all
of them, but about a higher portion than the ones that he
does play. And then, you know, there's
gonna there's an element of selection bias for the same
reasons that you don't want to look at like Cadarius Tony's
targets per route run and go, well, if he ran all of the
routes, he would have a 28% target share.
You also have to kind of apply this logic in reverse, where
let's let's pretend that we had a crystal ball.
We knew that if Travis Hunter ran every single route, he would
have a 25% target share. You know, you take away 20% of
the routes, you apply that linearly, he would be down to a
20% target share. In reality, you'd probably be
more like 22/21/22 because some of the routes that he comes off
the field to give him a, a break, they're just going to
call, you know, a screenplay for Parker WA or it's going to be a
first redesign look for Brian Thomas, something that Hunter's
not a big part of the plan on. And they're going to, they're
going to center him in the plays that he does play.
So that's all of the that's all the cope that I have.
I also think it's very fun that he is falling because the nice
thing is there, there are a lot of other bets in the first round
that are interesting or in the fourth round that are
interesting. And I think there are far less
in the 5th, especially a wide receiver.
So if he's going to fall, which I think he should, he'll you
know, I was ahead of market on his previous price.
So I will drop him and still be ahead of market on his new price
and at this point. He falls from here.
Yeah, I think I think he will because I mean I had him about
around ahead of ADP before and I'm still going to probably have
him, but around ahead ADP at his new price.
I think he's going to wind up in like the mid 5th is my guess.
I mean, I've seen people that are like hunter bears that think
he should fall way more than that.
I don't think I think people will price enforce find people.
But yeah, I think I think once he gets past like like the
Kittle Hertz group, because like that's I'm trying to think of
guys that I'm like taking advantage of the hunter fall to
get more of and like Hertz Kittle or two Worthy's a guy
that I I've been drafting more of now.
Hampton's a guy I've been drafting a lot more of.
Now. These are all very exciting
players, but like, I'm not going to take Chuba Hubbard ahead of
him. I'm not taking Calvin Ridley
ahead of him. I'm not even taking Waddle ahead
of him. So I think like the mid 5th,
unless we get something that says like he's just going to
play way more on defense than offense, I think the mid 5th is
like his temporary for. Pat Indy, Jack Pat Indy.
Jacksonville is sort of shaping up nicely at that, at the like
one O 11-O2 range with Jonathan Taylor in two and then Hunter
now end of four downs, even maybe in six.
Like that's a game. You can have seven there.
Yeah, of course. 6-7 turn. I like that.
Yeah, I'm generally with Jacob here where I think like
Kadarius, Tony is kind of a weirdly interesting comp for the
purposes of just thinking through like what targets per
outrun might look like for a guy like Hunter.
We're like, and, and this is weird cuz Tony's been a, a true
bust, but this is, I mean this in a bullish way where he ran
less than 200 routes in his rookie season, but he averaged
5.3 targets per game. He was on a pace to hit 90
targets. Jameson Williams had 92 targets
last year in 16 games. Roma Dunsay was at 96.
Darnell Mooney was at 100. Jalen Waddle was only at 83.
So there's like, this isn't a range where it's like, you know,
you're already kind of OK and then Tony sucked.
You know, that's the other thing is that you have like a the
potential for him to not run that many routes, but still be
fairly productive for fantasy because they're just going to
they're going to be scheming him the ball in a way that's very
uncommon and unusual. But of course it is.
He's playing defensive back. So they're they're trying to
make sure when he's they're making the most of his snaps.
He's the second overall pick. He's a generational talent.
He's top of mind. So there's going to be there's
going to be a little bit of a different style of usage them
we're used to. So if he has 60% round
participation, normally you'd be like, that's a huge red flag for
the 4th or fifth round. I think he, you know, Tony had a
27% targets per outrun. I think we could see something
like that pretty easily for Travis Hunter.
So I do agree. I was never as in as Jacob, you
know, when he was in the 4th. So I kind of, I kind of
appreciate the fall a little bit, but I like, I mean the
fifth round, I, I, I like it. I think it's a a big upside
swing. Dude gets open like in Matt
Harmon's reception perception, he was off the charts.
Some of the metrics and stuff. He's not like a perfect
prospect, but he was like literally also playing full time
defensive back and winning the Heisman while doing so.
So I think you're getting that, you're getting now a little bit
more of the discount for the floor of and maybe it's not even
floor, maybe it's ceiling. It's like, is his ceiling
actually more limited relative to the talent because he's just
never going to play 90? Percent around I think.
I think the. I think the feeling is, I think
the feeling is never that limited because, or at least not
in the later weeks because I continue to think and I, and I
did this in my piece through like an Excel formula.
But I, I just think that his routes remain correlated to his
talent of the wide receiver position.
And I, and I think the better he looks at the wide receiver
position, the more routes he will run and the worse he looks,
the, the fewer routes he will run.
And so from the ceiling perspective, I, I think kind of
regardless of the noise, if you believe he is potentially an
elite wide receiver from jump, then I don't think that routes
are going to be a major concern for you because either he will
run a lot of them or they will just force him the ball whenever
he's out there and he'll run enough of them.
I think that the floor is horrible because if he's not
that good as a wide receiver, he's very good as a defensive
back and and that the scales will continue.
To that, that's like, that's like the nightmare, that's like
the. Nightmare.
Yeah, he's. Awesome.
Yeah, is it? But like I.
But it won't happen. It's just like we're all.
I mean, he is awesome. He's.
All going to lose anyway, Like I don't.
Yeah, like. Oh, he's definitely awesome as a
defensive back. But you don't make the move I
generally Jacksonville, you don't make the move Jacksonville
made and just have him play corner.
I mean, you're not saying entirely.
Oh, he's going. He's going to get a very real
chance at wide receiver, not least of which because if you
just pretend, like pretend on your mind that Travis Hunter
plays only defensive back, the Jaguars now have an offensive
Brian Thomas, Diami Brown, Parker Washington, Bretton
Strange, that is like disgusting.
But they they need Hunter to be part of the offensive plan.
They can't rely on Diami Brown as their number.
Two, there's no doubt that he will be.
I think the danger zone is that he's down around 40% around
participation and that could happen 80%.
You talk about 1/20 as a floor, okay, but he's playing 80% on
the defensive side and and 40% on the the offensive side.
So you get to 120 that way. I think that's pretty plausible,
and in part for. One of my spreadsheet in the in
the range of outcomes, this is the 4080, yeah.
Yeah, maybe I've read your articles, maybe, but but yeah, I
mean, I think that's pretty, pretty likely.
I mean, he like his ability to close on some of those like
throws to the flat and stuff. It's like it's kind of magical,
like he could be they, they could just be like, we can't
take this guy off the field on defense.
Like he could be too good to to play as much as we'd like on
offense. I I think that's like that's
very realistic. So yeah, I guess it really does
come down. It's more about the floor.
I don't know, it's it's kind of about everything.
Like does does he play enough receiver is just the question.
Yeah, I, I did that podcast with Cody Alexander from Match
Quarters and he was assistant defensive coordinator under Art
Briles at Baylor. And he, he was telling me he's
like, dude, if I was his coach, I'd be like, yeah, you're,
you're with the defense every day because for practice,
because guess what? You can walk in the huddle and
Trevor Lawrence can just say, hey, go run a post.
Whereas on defense, you, you don't have anyone who can tell
you what you're doing. You have to know your role
inside of each individual assignment.
Like you have to know it it basically he could probably be
efficient and effective as a wide receiver without practicing
there at all, whereas that will not happen on defense.
I don't know if I agree with that because wide is so much
like timing and being at the right spot at the right time and
you know, communicate like, I don't know, you want that mind
meld with the quarterback a little bit.
This, this just seems like to me, like every offensive person
who comments on this is like, look man, you don't even
understand offense. You don't even understand, Yeah.
He's got to play offense and then every defense person is
like no, no, no, no, no. Defense is so much more.
Complete. That's such.
A in the modern age. Yeah.
I I kind of have. Like he's got to practice every
day with the specialty. He's like.
I I just kind of have that Joe Rogan thing going on with ball
knowers where whatever you tell me, I'm just like absolutely
total, yeah, that makes total sense.
And then and then. I don't wish Joe Rogan thing
that you have the only one of. Them and then and then Jacob
will tell me a smart ball knowing thing and I'm like,
yeah, AB totally that makes total.
Sense. It's like whatever the most
recent thing I just heard is the most convincing thing I've ever
heard. The the Tony comp was, I know, a
little bit weird. I think Super Ninja Cow Go Moo's
mom is an even weirder comp here.
You know who else plays beside the ball?
My mom on Only Fans. Still no.
Link show within the show. There's no within the.
Show not to I like. Like, can we call Detective
Olivia Benson? Like I'm getting concerned.
Detective, anything quickly on on Loveland just giving.
Out nothing on that reference. The show's been on the air for
25 years. No idea who that is.
Are you serious? It's.
It's in our intro. Don't.
What it used? To be before we got oh, I've
never, I've never watched, I've never watched that show.
Same here. I don't.
Know law and order. How have you not like that show
you don't choose to watch? Law and order like she's like,
it's just. Yeah, SVU was just on like how's
not been in a room with SVU on? Well, as established, I don't
leave the house much. My parents were not TV watchers
and I'm not really ATV watcher so it just good for you hasn't
hasn't come up. Yeah, it's it's not on.
If you're sitting outside with your dog in the kiddie pool,
there's no SBU. There it's not you know, I'm I'm
I'm reading, I'm reading, you know, whatever, whatever
bullshit I think makes me smart at the at the time, the.
Luther Burden, though, by the way, to totally switch gears.
Like it's fair that he's falling because he hasn't been
practicing, but this is such a gift to have of this profile
available at this section of the draft.
Cuz this was like a wide receiver desert prior where like
if you didn't have your if you didn't, however many wide
receivers I had at the end of round 8 was how many wide
receivers I typically had entering round 14.
Yeah. And sometimes that number was 4.
And that made me deeply uncomfortable.
But having Luther Burden available now in the 10th is
just like an absolute auto click.
If I don't have enough wide receivers, you just draft Luther
Burden injects them upside into your into your line up and
you're pumped about it. Love it.
Loved reading Matt Waldman on Burden, very optimistic and
exciting. Yeah, Burden Waldman, he would
be the type of guy I would expect to hate Burden.
So that actually that actually. Yeah, that is pretty.
Bullish, yeah. Anything on anything on Loveland
that isn't injury related, Just a small dip on him.
Well, it just feels like everyone, it just feels like
everyone should have realized that he was injured and then
like it seems like they just like everyone kind of had this
mass consciousness awakening about a week ago that he's
injured. They haven't like what I would
say is it's not priced in. When he misses the first part of
training camp, he will fall. Like I'm not saying don't take
him at all yet, but like if your word and I because I am, I
Loveland shows up and I'm I don't take him as much as I
would like to, but I think I'm going to get plenty of them
later. That's that's how I'm playing it
right now. I think he falls.
This stuff is rarely fully priced because he's going to
miss time. Like, I don't think he'll like
probably a couple weeks of training camp, maybe even more.
And we saw Ben Johnson do the rant about you got to be here,
you got to be available. That got applied to Burden and
he fell and you know, he did miss time.
But that is going to apply more to Loveland once we get to
training camp and and Ben Johnson being a total hard ass
and then also having Cole Comet there, who is probably going to
coincidentally look great doing everything we asked while while
Loveland's rehabbing his shoulder.
I just think it's going to lead to him falling and we're going
to get at least like probably another 10 picks on this.
Plus it's rookie tight end, quote tight end with a lot of
competition. I mean, you can get Ferguson
crafts and Joku kind of right there and then other guys later.
I think you're right. Yes, yeah, quarterbacks.
So let me just go 1 by 1 here with you guys and see how close
I came. I'm sure I'm way off on Dave, on
Jacob rather. I know he's not just waiting for
Daniel Jones back from the open. But Jacob, to start with you
when what's your philosophy on especially the top three guys
here and you know, Daniels in particular, maybe because he's
just not as easily stackable still like how are you
approaching it? Well, this is also another one
of the things that I'm trying to do with letting Hunter fall is
drafting more league quarterback teams.
Also also with letting Harvey fall is you get a little bit
more Jalen Hurts. Not early five slot.
Yeah, I entered. I I checked, I checked my
exposures recently and I'd realized I was very low on the
elite quarterbacks and I probably want to be a little
bit, but not as low, not as low as I was.
So I made a pretty specific point.
I hopped in like a bunch of what was it the schnauzer?
Yeah, I don't know some sort of that I, I like, I think that was
the one that's the 20 Max entry and I and I and I maxed it and I
think I drafted like Lamar or Jayden Daniels and in 60% of
those just to kind of like spice up my life a little bit.
I, I would say I'm taking AI think that the order of the top
three is incorrect. I think that it should be Jayden
1, Lamar 2 and Allen 3. And you guys know, I'm, I'm
willing to to press that point. So I think that my hopeful end
exposure will be something like Jayden 10, Lamar 6, Allen 0.
Hertz, I think should just clearly be going in that group
and it doesn't really make any sense why he isn't.
So I, I will be, he'll be the only one that I'm like
materially overweight. And then Burrow is like, I don't
even, I don't think about Joe Burrow cuz it's just very if, if
I have Chaser Higgins and he's available to me in the sixth,
then I take Joe Burrow and otherwise I don't.
So I like never make a Joe Burrow decision.
Why do you think Alan's third? I just think that the well, I'll
first speak on very. Very diplomatic would ask that
chip. Yeah, it.
Was. No, it's.
It's the question I'd want to ask if I were listening, that's
all. Explain it.
This is like. This is this is the less
diplomatic way to ask that. Why 0 Allen, do you hate sax?
Yeah, that's. What I do here, that's what I do
here. So I think that Daniels, but the
Russian quarterbacks, what we've typically seen is that the the
best rushing seasons come early in their career.
And I want to be betting on the guy where the offense is in the
flexing its muscles, spreading its wing stage and trying to see
what they're capable of. And to me, that's that's what
fits Washington. They they go in and they add two
big pieces, Tonsil Debo Debo is maybe a bigger piece than they
were hoping for and. See, I'm not, I'm not
researching the mayoral results here.
I'm, I'm here. I'm I'm good.
Audience, good for you. And I'm in New York.
Come on, you gotta. You gotta.
You should be researching. Let me know you see.
Polly Market at Momdani up to 59.
Percent. Oh, I've been refreshing.
Anyway, I think Daniels is in a he's just in a spot to me where
I think he's set to explode. I think people are maybe
underrating his fantasy value slightly because he had that
period post rib injury where he was a little bit contained.
Otherwise, he was pretty much right up there with these guys.
I want to bet on that ascension. Lamar just runs a lot more than
Josh Allen does between the 20s and the Bills became a run first
team under Joe Brady. So to me, Alan's path is very
reliant on rushing touchdowns, but she obviously gets at A at a
very high rate and will continue to.
But outside of that, the upside is pretty limited.
They don't pass the ball that much.
They don't have receivers, so they can't really pass the ball
that well outside of Alan doing superhero stuff.
So I, I just think the days of Alan having like that, having
sort of multiple paths that he used to have a few years ago
where he could throw 50 times or run for three touchdowns, it's
kind of gone and he's on a more narrow rushing touchdown focus
path that just does not appeal to me quite as much.
I also think with Lamar you get a really fun contingent upside
scenario where like what if Derrick Henry just got hurt?
They don't really have any alternatives.
Like it's Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell.
I think their pass rate could go up by like 10%.
Hey man, you are talking about 2023 NFL rushing yards over
expectation leader, not rushing yards over expectation leader
per carry straight up rushing yards over expectation leader.
And I know Mike Leone says that's a fake stat, but.
I love Mitchell. Yeah.
Jackson does not give you the touchdowns, Alan.
I mean, there's so many ways to illustrate it.
He has more career rushing touchdowns than OJ had.
Like he he he'll get to 100, which you know, with touchdowns,
we're always talking about regression.
And I don't know this eventually it'll happen when I maybe he
starts to feel like he's older. He's 29 now, but.
OK, well, what, what Liam told me is that what if they his hand
was injured last year, which actually made him run more
because they just didn't want him just like Hawking the ball
like 47 * a game. So he's saying Liam was telling
me that it's actually super bullish for James Cook.
And and so I don't know. I, I'm not, I was not following.
I'm not not following it exactly.
I don't know the thing I I would just push back on the idea that
Alan doesn't have ceiling. I think his like he's not going
to hit the ceiling as often as he should for how good he is
because the wide receiver core is not going to elevate him.
You know, I guess relative to most teams, the tight end
position, I guess is a strength, but it's not going to like
really pull him up much. But like, and, and of course you
do have Brady who's very overly dependent on kind of
establishing the run and, and kind of limiting the pass
volume. But like they're not that good
on defense and they've had teams put up points against them and
now they're in, in a in response mode.
I mean twice last year right against the Rams he he put up
51.9 half PPR. Points definitely not saying he
does not have ceiling. He has an incredible ceiling.
I think that his path to ceiling is narrower than it used to be,
but he has. It's less frequent than it used
to, but it's like, I guess what I would like his ability to hit
extremely high ceiling is I, I would say probably the best in
the player pool. Like he still has the highest
single game ceiling, I think because he can combine the the
big time passing numbers with rushing in a way that I I don't
feel as confident with Lamar doing as as much because like
when they didn't have Henry, they ran it with Gus Edwards.
You know, like they it's a little bit more truly an
identity. I think with them they don't
have a Daniels is a bit more of a wild card.
Everyone, everyone, all the running backs on their team are
tiny little dudes after Henry now.
I guess they could just sign some.
They were Sheena Lee, right? They've got they, they'd find
somebody. They, they, I mean, that's their
thing. They always they bring in like
they'll. Bring Mark Ingram back.
Yeah, they'll they'll find some big dude to run around.
Yeah, I, I. What's Devonta Freeman up to?
Is Isaiah Crowell available? Daniels is the guy.
There Elvin Cook. Elvin Cook was there.
I'm with Jacob on Allen. I'm I'm I'm much more with Jacob
on Allen. I mean, I'm still into Allen
like to be. I feel like I think Josh Allen's
box. I, I just think that they're all
maybe what I'd say is I think that they're all about the same.
And if anything, I might rank out on 3rd.
The fact that he goes like almost a full round ahead of
Daniels to me is I guess where I, I lose out a little.
Sure, Daniels was a really good passer last year.
Doesn't he have? He was rushed.
He was. Passing combination ceiling.
Yeah, no, no, no. I was gonna say like, I think
Daniels, it's it's a wider range because you have the second year
guy, we're now saying like you're truly an elite.
He had a stretch last year where he was banged up and didn't look
like that at all. And he's skinny and like, you
know, the offensive line isn't great.
So you do it. There's some concerns.
We also only have a one year sample of it.
But if you want to talk about pure ceiling, I would probably
rank Daniel's number two behind behind out.
Like give me like the the peak of what a game looks like.
I think Daniels is probably #2 behind Allen cause 'cause he can
combine the rushing in the passing.
You can put them in almost any order.
Allen won the MVP with fewer passing yards and fewer passing
touchdowns in the lower completion percentage than
rookie Bo Nicks, with Mack Hollins leading his team in
touchdown catches with five. Just insane.
My take last year, what with the Bills was they ran the ball
great. They're going to keep doing it.
And they did 6 offensive lineman all the time.
They rushed for 30 touchdowns. I don't know.
I, I feel like Jacob nailed it on the Bills with their receiver
room. I still kind of feel like
betting against it a little bit, but I mean, it's Josh Allen, so.
I I like that they play the Eagles in, in Week 17.
I think that's good. If you're that game sucks you,
you're so wrong. About.
This you, you need, look, I mean, the Eagles run a lot, but
they don't run slow because Barkley breaks off long runs.
They put up points. That's true.
You you need the you need the Bills to be pushed.
You need them to be losing, frankly.
And they're they're a good enough team that that's not
going to happen a ton is. There a way that the Eagles can
put it on it in that game. That that that I don't feel so
good about. I, I, I hate that that's a week
17 game, not for fantasy, but just like you have a chance of
ruining that game if teams have clinched by then.
Like it's possible the Bills are the biggest division favorite in
the league and if they're three games off, you can have the one
seed you could you could lose out.
I don't like that the NFL put that game so late 'cause it has
such good potential. It's also, by the way, the last
year at the stadium here, so. Even if they have the division
locked up, I bet they're competing for some form of
seeding with two weeks to go probably I I bet they're they're
at least in the mix for the one seed.
Or even if it's not that maybe the 2.
Something, something will matter, I think.
Well, I, I think teams announced last year they're not that big
on 2 versus 3 or 3 versus 4. But yeah, you're probably right.
I mean it's. They're not going to ref guys
for two weeks. No, it's.
It's just possible. Teams almost never rest guys the
the for for two weeks before the playoffs.
It's. Philadelphia Kansas City in Week
2 has no chance of being wonky because of the standings, but
Buffalo Week 17 Davis, you have a.
Thing at all though, can anyone make like 1?
Like why is he drafted like a full round behind these guys?
It makes hurts like it doesn't make any sense to me.
Is it? Just like they like.
Bandy push push dude. And then it just like wasn't
banned and we just decided that's where he goes anyways.
It's like not also. You people actually hate Jalen
Hurts? That's like a they do.
That is, I hate Jalen Hurts I I don't think he's like that good.
I'm a Jalen Hurts hater but like I.
You are you. That's I forget that.
That's that's been a battle. Yeah, I I think the fantasy
football. In in February of 2025, I I
wished he was much worse than he actually was.
I was wishing I. Was wishing the haters were
right. I I was watching that game.
I was wishing that game. I was watching that Super Bowl
going God Dang man I I wish. I wish the Jalen Hurts haters
were correct. Hertz is an awesome pick.
I was I was kind of low on the elite quarterbacks and the big
board and have come up on them in, you know, post draft.
I think all these guys, the boring answer.
I think all four of these dudes are targets.
I currently have overweight positions on Allen and Hertz and
I'm a little underway on Lamar and Daniels, but that's not
something I'm standing behind. I'm trying to correct that.
I want to be overweight on all these guys.
Not like massively so, but I would say the the guy would be
comfortable. You know, mid teens would be
hurts, maybe even up to 20% on hurts.
Like he's he's just like, I don't really get why you could
get him in the fifth round. It doesn't it just doesn't make
sense. I mean, and I've done stuff
where it like if I'm going to take a quarterback with Jamar
Chase in the in the early 5th, I think it's still hurts.
It's not Burro. It's it's hurts like, you know,
you can. And if you have you go like
McBride and and and Chase. You could do like Hertz and
Murray, but I just don't, I don't see the point really.
Even Burrow, I've kind of come to like where I'm just not
taking him in until the 6th. I'm with you there, Jake.
That's like, yeah. And partly it's because I will
literally take Hertz on those Chase teams or Higgins teams
over Burrow in the 5th. If Hertz and Devante Smith games
being played in almost every draft at the left side of the
board, maybe I don't. I don't love Smith.
That I would have even more if I was more into Smith.
Yeah, I think it. Was a little of a lot.
I I occasionally taken just to set up the stack with Hertz,
like if it Yep, if he if Smith falls a little bit and it's like
I have, you know, if I have because I've I've done this
exact scenario where I take chase one and then I come back
on the clock at 48 and Smith and Hertz are both there and I go,
OK, great. Screw Joe Burrow.
I'm taking Smith and Hertz together.
But I I agree, like I like Pickens more than Smith.
I like flowers more than Smith. Waddle.
Me too, I like Hunter more than Smith so it's me too, not a guy
that I have interest in. You guys can't draft Breece Hall
and draft Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson.
You know, that's you guys. That has been a big problem for
me, yeah. That's why, yeah.
Did you hear you there for me? Anybody here?
Scott Barrett on Breece Hall on a recent FFPC podcast.
I bet he was. Bearish I I would check that
out. I I, I would, I would ask that
you check it out so I don't just twist it at all without meaning
to. It was on an FFPC Big Gorilla
Draft podcast of theirs and he said he knows a bouncer from
Hoboken or something. That said Rhys Hall was in the
bar every day. Every day.
Like last year. Last year, yeah, Something
about. How about now?
Wouldn't you have been? I was, I literally was in the
bar every day. Last year, I'm gonna take that
as bullish. I think it's bullish that.
Explains his poor performance. And now he's learned and he's in
a contract year and he's gonna, he's gonna put down the bottle
and get, you know it. Yeah, and maybe we don't know
what that bar's like. Maybe it's a good social scene
there you. Know well, I should probably say
club instead of bar. I'm not sure drinking was
implied, but you know, there was, like, he was always at the
place, that's all. OK, drinking.
That's even better. Club is more bullish than bar.
Bar's a little sadder, you know, if you're there.
Club, club, What's a big club? Yeah.
Club Club's bullish. There's some things going down
at the club. You could, you could be.
You could be having a good time. Yeah, boats, whatever.
I mean, yeah, lots of ways to enjoy life.
I mean, this is this is how. This is why you got to stack
them for week 17 with digs. There it is.
The the all the all club stack. We need a we need a new mnemonic
device for suddenly for jets patriots.
The real issue that I have with the league quarterbacks is
partially Breeze Hall. That's a big reason why I have
more Daniels is because he's the one that doesn't go ahead of
Breeze Hall. But also I I just can't get over
how much I like the quarterbacks and how much I hate everyone
else that goes between like 120 and 145 like this.
This is just the most that I've ever wanted to live in the
quarterback window. And I just feel so good about my
teams every time that I get to that range.
And I have no quarterbacks, but I have enough wide receiver
depth. I've gotten running back targets
that I want. I've gotten my early tight end
and I just get to go. Love Lawrence McCarthy, Prescott
May like panics, like whatever. Like just chap.
Three and those teams. Just fall into place and I think
that they, I mean, you're the SIM expert, so you would know
better at how they SIM, but they just feel like you're, you're
really taking advantage of the, the relative value of the drafts
and you built that way. This seems like the elites
because I think they they're giving you something that isn't
really available later. I mean, you can kind of talk
yourself into Murray or fields as you know, some of the the
rushing upside with, you know, the the mega ceiling stuff, but
really the mega ceiling plus the high floor is these four guys.
And so so The Sims do like the elites.
But yeah, that window is like very, very much, you know, Sims
endorsed is, is another path to play things this year.
Like that's it's just an awesome year to to live in the
quarterback window. I I completely agree.
All right. Well, none of these guys
available in last call. Pat, are you caught up?
No, I I guess I I'll do 2 but I'll need to figure out who both
of them are right now. All right.
Trying to figure out positionally.
I don't know. What I need?
These are. Players.
Who need? 100 or higher.
I think I know what I'm going to do, but let me just check here.
Now do we have, do we have an official ruling on is it, is it
once a player has been selected, they can't be like they're.
There's no, There's no. Duping.
There's no duping 'cause we're we're building teams that
compete with one another. Frankly.
I oh, I have mine. I have mine go.
I have mine too. I'll turn Anthony Richardson.
There it is. I mean, I just put that out
there for you. Last week, Jacob was supposed to
work. Yeah, he's he's back.
He's back. Over the is he is he 200 is he
is he ADP 200 I'm. Looking right now he is two O
2.1 all. Right, he was last week.
Two O 2.1 Apparently he's going to be a full go training camp.
If you read the sort of athletic What I'm hearing article.
James Boyd, good reporter, said that Jones is still the
overwhelming favorite to start in week 1.
But I think that the like worst case scenarios, the surgery
lingering, that's that's off the table.
So now all you have to bet on if you're an Anthony Richardson
drafter, which I'm still not, but I'm I'm far more into him at
his current price than when he was the presumed starter in the
one 70s. Is that Daniel Jones sucks or
gets hurt. He's known to do both of those
very frequently. And then Anthony Richardson gets
in there for the playoffs and has a big week.
So I will, I will take Anthony Richardson and it'll give me one
hedge against my Daniel Jones position in My Portfolio of
winning. Last call for Breg, right?
All right. All right, I've got nothing.
Everyone I would take is gone. You need to expand your mind.
My, my running backs are bad. It's not a good, it's not a good
scene. So I'm going to, I'm going to do
something that is going to make everyone cry and vomit.
Blood is going to kind of leak from their eyes.
I'm going to select Devin Singletary who is going.
To have the. Inconvenient Truth 800 yard 4
touchdown season of all time. Like if you think for that's
it'll probably start for. Is he on the that of the Ravens
trade of seven? Could be, Could be the Ravens,
Could be the Cowboys. There.
There are a lot of different ways this one can go.
But it'll be this is a question at what stage will the very
first New York Giants beat reporter float that he's going
to start? What are we thinking?
Are we thinking? Never.
Yeah, not happening. Yeah.
We're never getting that report. Before August 1st I got before.
August 1st not swollen by Tracy and they drafted Sket.
Why were the giants? I'm into the idea if he gets
like caught or traded or something that's that's kind of
fun, but. Lot of lot of ways, a lot of
ways. I think that that one, not that
I not that I I'm taking, I would I take.
It on what they could do on what what they could sorry Davis what
they could do with singletary their first pre season game is
at Buffalo. What they could do with him is
like showcase him and see if anybody wants to to make that
move, a running back injury somewhere else so you could get
that back door that. Way I love it.
That doesn't mean Darqua aspect Davis.
Yeah, Oh my God, a a great player.
I'll take Turpin since we talked about.
That's smart. That's a good one.
God, I I am bad at this game man.
I just basically what happens is I just I just keep taking fancy
guys and fancy guys are not is what going to win this game.
I mean. Jacob, Jacob, Jacob is going to
win by like a lot. Jacob's team is.
I don't know about that but that's I need Amari Cooper to
sign. I've gotten I've so far I've hit
on 2 free agents that have subsequently signed contracts.
We're getting CLV on Sanders, although I'm I, I got all my CLV
on Jack Bash, but now he's coming back to the 2. 100 he's
coming back, losing CLV by the day.
It's like I it's like I hit a nice little 60° onto the green
and it was like right by the hole.
I thought it was going to have a tap in but it's now coming off
the fault. Your your ML, your middle line
value was great, your your CLV not so good.
Exactly. Also real real idiot shit for me
not getting Brashard Smith. That goes back to April.
I don't know what happened there, but I got them.
Embarrassing. Yeah, Pat for two.
Yeah, I need some more receivers and looks like Zach tried to
give me F and Chisholm as my as my pick last week, but I'll be
I'll be replacing that. I'm not the receiver.
I didn't see that before. I'll see you too.
Yeah. All right, I'll, I'll just kind
of scoop up some of these. Let me just make sure they're
not going, OK? And I tried to give you
Richardson and the other guy said that's not fair.
That wouldn't have been fair that that's too good.
Of a They're right. No, they're right.
I'd have to make it myself. They're right.
The the other thing is my sheet didn't have Richardson is is
200, so I wouldn't have made it all right.
I'll I'll go ahead and take the the most boring rookie receiver
pick, but he did get decent draft capital.
I'll take Isaac Tesla. OK.
And then I'll take a guy We, we, we're all excited about rookies
who get playing time. Deonte Thornton, not the great
of prospects, but you know, he's out there.
I'll take Aaron Smith. He's going to be out there, too.
Eagles. Aaron Smith is a crazy Aaron.
Smith is for the Jeff. Jeff.
Smith is a Aaron Smith. Anita Smith and.
M Guy from Alaska. That is as crazy as The Jets
actually selecting Aaron Smith. I think he's out there, but the
by the end of the season. Why did you guys all play Alan
Lazard on the Steelers? Yeah, Alan Lazard's going to be
on the Steelers for sure. Why isn't he on Jacob's team?
Lazard, what's the hold up? That's true.
I got to get the stack. Can I just say something?
I think Josh Reynolds is draftable.
The hell? I don't know if he's draftable.
He's not. He's going to run like 91% of
the routes in Week 1. For a Mason Rd.
Mason Taylor. Mason Taylor is.
The one. Yeah, he sure is.
Look at that nice list. Mason Taylor Jacobs, tight end
one. All right.
What do you guys have planned today and this week?
Swole cast in 10 minutes. I'm streaming some of these
niche side contests on Underdog this afternoon.
Probably probably do my corgi and whatnot on a your.
Corgis, your pit bulls, your What's the other one that popped
yesterday? The Poodle.
The poodle pat right on cue. Right on cue.
Yeah, the doodle. So yeah, we're let's see, let's
see. I'm, I'm working on a article on
tight ends looking at play action participation rate.
The guys who are good enough run blockers to be out there for
very valuable play action snaps where tight ends get a lot more
targets than wide receivers do and or they get a higher
percentage of their production than wide receivers do on play
action. And going to have articles by
Matt Irby and Michael Dugner on the site this week and check out
the Sidekick. We're in beta right now.
You sign up legendaryupside.com/sidekick.
You can use The Sims as we beta test them and we have, we're
already starting to test out some of the other formats with
The Sims as well. So I'm hoping that we'll have
that for you pretty soon. Stuff like the Eliminator,
Superflex, all that good stuff. Very cool, Jacob.
I got an article up on Travis Hunter.
We will have the honesty points tonight as always.
Graham Barfield is on with us tonight.
I will have, I think another piece out this weekend on
specifically running back Spike weeks and yeah, oh, check out
the mini sods and find out who we drafted at the 4:10.
When I'm not watching, when I'm not watching, the Mini Sods and
the Randomizer and the other shows.
I'm hosting weekday afternoons in Buffalo and Saturday this
week is the live Scott Fishbowl draft in Buffalo.
Fatty Beer at Wurlitzer in North Onnawanda to be specific.
My friend Louie G has done a great job organizing it. 4
drafts this year. Another fun format like Unusual
and Scott Fishbowl is always great.
So Saturday afternoon. Open to the public if you want
it. Thanks as always for watching
and listening. We'll see you next week, July
1st here on ADP Chasing By. Canada Day.
Canada Day, right? Nice.
Beautiful.