Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to statutes in week, 16.
My name is Sam hopin. And I'm, your host for the show.
Thank you all for tuning in and listening to the show or
watching the show. Hopefully, if you You have not
tuned in before this is where I'll be going through.
Many of the key stats that I think are important to help lay
a foundation for what happened in the NFL this past week, which
there is certainly a lot to digest and also talked about
what's happened in the past couple weeks because things are
changing. We want to stay on our toes.
Make sure that We are reacting properly in getting the right
information. In today, I'm going to get you
all of the information that you need, but before I get into the
details, going to talk through quickly.
The stats that I'll be using today from PFF is where I get
all of my routes data. That's any route specific
metric. I use targets / outrun anything
like that. I also use their expected
fantasy points, which is A model built that weights Opportunity
by the line of scrimmage and primarily use this as a measure
of player usage and workload from the NFL play-by-play data
is where I get most of my data that's NFL faster.
That's where I get area are words which is the distance, the
ball traveled in the air before it gets to a receiver.
Have waited opportunity rating or Whopper.
That's a staff that Josh rooms Meyer created that weights are
We are to share and Target. Share, also have racer, which is
receiver are conversion, ratio along with Pacer, which is
Pastor are passing air conversion ratio for racer.
That's receiving our yd / area, ards.
Pacer is passing area, yd /, passing Area Arts, and these are
essentially efficiency metrics. Shown to are used to show how
well receivers are converting are yards into actual yards.
Also have quarterback adjusted yards per attempt which is just
a quarterback's yards per attempt.
But is weighted with bonuses, given four touchdowns and points
taken away four interceptions. Also have pass rate over
expectation that or PR o-- e which I'll refer to.
As the NFL faster play-by-play data has a variable that
determines the percentage chance that the the play will be a drop
back and then compare the rate of that to what teams actual
passing rate and there you get past some weight over
expectation, also have cpoe or completion percentage over
expectation similar concept, but with completion percentage on
passes for quarterbacks And then have a couple of stats
popularized by been Gretsch, have waited targets per outrun,
which Waits Area, Arts and routes run with a general,
scalar included. Also have high value touches,
which is a running back specific metric carries inside.
That's carries inside the 10 yard line.
And any reception also going to refer to green zone touches
which is any touch, whether it's a carry or a reception, Side,
the opponent's 10-yard line. So going to go through the
league position by position to compare against others, in the
position, help you make your some of your final starts.
It decisions, waiver claim decisions, and maybe put a
little DFS spin on it as well. And then I'm going to go through
a couple of Team situations at the end that sadok's me that I
wanted to dive deeper. / into. So a quick reminder to subscribe
to the YouTube channel, become a member on the YouTube channel
for just five dollars a month to show not statutes in
specifically but shift chasing will be running.
Throughout the offseason, you could get access to the Discord,
be able to use some, some fun emojis in the chat as well.
And one quick shout-out to at change on call, excuse me, at
change College on Twitter, who has been doing an awesome job
this season, adding the timestamps to the YouTube for
each of the positions and team conversation.
So, if you're a returning listing or can just skip ahead
to the meat of the program, which is the best part, and
That's going to start right now. So I'm going to pull up my first
chart. The same chart as always Which
shows quarterback efficiency and production.
For the last five weeks on this chart have adjusted yards per
attempt on the x-axis touchdown rate on the y-axis and the size
of a quarterback's bubble. As is rushing yards per game
looking for efficiency from our quarterbacks because volume is
not necessarily the biggest driver.
A fantasy success Act. the quarterback position like it is
at some of the other positions. And I'm going to start off.
Talking about a guy who played last night didn't have his best
game by any means but someone who I'm increasingly becoming
more confident in and becoming a stand-up and that's Kirk Cousins
and I feel like I might be on the wrong.
Side of History here but he's led the Vikings to a foreign to
record over his last six games, putting them in position for a
potential wild card berth in the NFC and over his last six games
like I said he's been playing quite well.
He's averaging over 250 passing yards per game over two passing
touchdowns per game. Has a 6.6% touchdown, R 8 and
8.1, adjusted yards per attempt and is actually throwing the
ball downfield quite a bit as a 9.4 average depth of Target,
which is among the highest in the league over that span of
games. He's throwing the ball about 33
times per game and averaging just around 17 PPR points.
Good game obviously doesn't have as high of a ceiling without the
Russian ability that some of the other top tier quarterbacks
bring but certainly it has been playing efficiently from the
quarterback perspective has a negative one percent completion.
Percentage over expectation in that span as well but is top 10
in EPA and cpoe composite score over the last Six weeks and he's
doing this without obviously, without Adam feeling the last
couple of games, the Vikings unfortunately, just don't want
to pass the ball as well as cousins is going to play.
They have a negative two percent pass rate over expectation over
the last six weeks and that is is likely not going to change
regardless of The Personnel that they do or don't have, I mean if
they don't have Dalvin cook their more than confident
relying on Alexander Madison to do that work.
Or if both of them are out, I believe Keen.
I'm in Conway probably mess that name up unfortunately, but happy
to to run the ball with him as well.
But I certainly think from a DFS, Perspective.
Cousins is always one of those guys that it's sort of
overlooked because people think of the Vikings as a pass first
recently a run first team which is fair and they are but he's
had multiple passing touchdowns in each of his last six games so
clearly can be efficient from that perspective. on the flip
side, a different quarterback that has had Much less success
and you see him down at the bottom left part of this chart
is Ryan Tannehill and he is struggling, a ton without AJ
Brown over his last three games, which of all been without brown,
who I might add is looking like he will return this upcoming
week. They play Thursday night against
the 49ers. He was designated to return and
Was I believe participating in walk through today, but
Tannehill has just been god-awful, I mean they had they
still want to run the ball as much as possible.
They have a negative, ten percent pass rate over
expectation, the last couple of weeks but Tannehill has just has
thrown just one touchdown has a 1.2% touchdown rate a 4.4
adjusted yards per attempt. He's thrown two interceptions.
And is only is averaging less than 150 passing yards per game.
So Tannehill ever since he got to Tennessee, has been this
extremely efficient pastor and his touchdown rate has been
above 5% I believe in each of the seasons that he's been
there. And it's just, it's just not
happening. I mean, Julio is not panning out
like a lot of people expected to, he's only throwing it.
Five point nine yards, downfield, with five point nine
yard average, depth of Target. And because of that, he's
averaging fewer than 12 fantasy points per game over his last
three. So, I mean this, this could be a
consequence of Derrick, Henry, being out and teams, Being more
comfortable, I guess selling out for the pass, if you will, even
though the Titans aren't throwing the ball a ton but it
doesn't look pretty. I mean if if you were relying on
Ryan Tannehill you've likely moved on at this point but
there's nothing really to suggest that he is going to turn
it around as a -2.7 completion percentage over expectation.
The last three weeks. Just hasn't been able to be
efficient at all whatsoever. No, other big things at the
quarterback position, the one thing that sticks out to me on
this chart here, Tyler Huntley. I think that what the Ravens
organization has done. Being able to find a quarterback
that basically, they can use basically the exact same scheme
for when Lamar Jackson is out is huge and helps the Playmakers,
the remaining Playmakers, on the team, have some stability with
their play calling and play-calling tendencies All that
sort of stuff. So, I mean, Tyler Huntley, I
believe was one of the, the better DFS plays this this past
week and hopefully you were able to take advantage of that.
But regardless, if he still, and I have zero worries about the
Ravens pastors, who I'm actually going to talk about here.
Here in a little bit. But before I get to that going
to talk about the running back position, arguably the most
important position in fantasy football.
And on this chart here have expected fantasy points.
Except me, rushing, expected fantasy points on the x-axis
receiving expected, pint fantasy points on the y-axis.
And then fantasy points over expectation as the size of the
bubble. And I'm realizing that Christian
Wilkins is showing up on this chart and he's a defensive
tackle. So must have slipped through the
cracks there somehow. But in any case, yeah, so
fantasy points over expectation. Is the size of the bubble that's
basically how much above or below expectation, their scoring
relative to their are actual workload and one guy who way out
performed expectations both in a fantasy from a fantasy
perspective and From a real life perspective is Duke Johnson who
was finally treated. As a Bell cow back.
He was the lead back in the Dolphins backfield.
And there were actually some quotes.
I don't matter. If this came out before the
gamer, after the game ordering, but Brian Flores said that they
rode with Johnson as the starter because gascon was out all week
due to covert protocols and wasn't practicing and Johnson
was able to practice. So it was a little confusing to
me because I, you know, I kind of figured that practicing the
entire season would mean a little bit.
To that coaching staff and not just a couple of days.
But it could have went very well, been a game specific
situation or skiing that they were working up.
But in any case Duke Johnson in his first start, in quite some
time, got 22 carries. 23 total opportunities.
Only had one target, had all three of the Dolphins green zone
touches had four high-value touches had 70% of the running
back touches in the backfield score.
Two rushing touchdowns as well. Only played on 58% of snaps.
They used Gaskin a bit more in a bit more of a relief.
Roll down the stretch. What was kind of shocking was
how little they used Johnson in the passing game?
He only ran a route on 29% of Dropbox and entering the game.
I mean, Johnson spend known as the To the Past catching
stereotype, if you will. As far as his expected fantasy
points. He scored seven fantasy points
over expectation. But still was that 18.8 expected
fantasy points, which is a phenomenal phenomenal workload.
Like I said you had 23 total opportunities which is the third
most in a single game for a dolphin's running back in a game
this season. So I think it'll likely be a
situation going forward. Where him and Gaskin are
splitting the opportunities. Both of them.
Those were the only two who got any work this past week.
But Gaskin had a 30% running back touch share, which was his
lowest sense week for in his second lowest total of the week.
So the dolphin signed Johnson to the active roster after the
game. So I would expect this probably
to be closer to a 50/50 split moving forward.
But this was the the first game since we gate that Asking, did
not record a green zone. Touch first game since week for
that. He didn't record a high-value
touch and Gaskins been sort of the I don't want to say the
model for high-value touches but has consistently gotten them.
Dating back to the beginning of last year, had always been had
always consistently gotten high value touches and was sort of
the primary pass-catching back in Miami.
So If he's not getting those then he immediately becomes
irrelevant. And he was never, really able to
do much with them, except on a couple of occasions.
But Duke Johnson certainly was able to The next backfield dad.
I'm going to talk about is the Panthers Back Field.
Obviously, Christian McCaffrey has been out the last two games.
For them suffered a season-ending injury in week, 12
when he only played on 36% of the snap.
So actually, going to look at some splits for the backfield.
old over those last three games, since McCaffrey, basically
missed two thirds of the game and week 12, but Before when
there was the stretch, when McCaffrey missed games, in the
middle of the Season, it was the chuba Hubbard show.
I mean, he was averaging, over 15 opportunities per game and
there was really no other running back, that was getting
significant touches. And so I think a lot of people
expected that to continue but that has not necessarily been
the case. Ameer Abdullah has played a
rather significant amount. He's been at a snap share above
50% in each of the last two games.
Walk Shuba has been below 50 percent in both games.
And where the big differentiation is, is with the
receiving work, which is what Abdul is getting over the last
three games, he has 89% of the running back.
Receptions, he's running a route on 56% of Dropbox, has a 14
percent Target share and is averaging 6.7.
Receiving expected fantasy points.
Per game, has nearly five targets per game in that span as
well. So, truly operating as just sort
of the passing down back and pass catching back because he
only has Ten total carries over those three games, but Hubbard
is just a non-factor in the passing game, and because the
Panthers are just not a great team, they are passing the ball
quite a bit more than you would expect.
Ameer Abdullah also has at least two high-value touches in each
of the last three games. While Hubbard only has one total
in the last three games. And I came this past week
against the bills But Hubbard is still he's basically just
getting the low value work grinding out the carries in the
middle of the field. But despite averaging 6.6
carries per week is just averaging 26, rushing yards per
game fell into the end zone once over this stretch.
But again Abdullah has been above 50% routes per drop back
rate over the last three games. Scored 15 and a half, PPR points
this past week. So I think if there's one that
has a bit of a safer floor, it's Abdullah because he's, he's
getting that the high-value work.
He's getting the past kitchen work and I think just generally,
I might stay away from this backfield if possible, because
Cam Newton still does not want to give the ball to anyone but
himself when they are close to the end zone, All right.
Skipping ahead. Here is I'm going to talk about
the Kansas City Chiefs running backs and there's been some
obviously news the last day or two, that both Travis Kelce.
And now Tyree kill have entered covid protocol or on the covid
list, could I believe they're both vaccinated?
So both could still play on Sunday, but that would obviously
impact potentially impact how the Chiefs use their backfield
and You players in their backfield and Clyde Edwards.
Hilaire has had an interesting past couple weeks.
So, in week 15, he had a season High 71 percent snap right
excuse me, that was the second highest, but the first highest
sense first has this High since week one when he was at 72% has
logged at least 13 opportunities in each of the four games since
he returned from injury has had multiple high-value touches in
each of those games, has had a running back touch, share of 61
percent in the last four games and has scored three rushing
touchdowns which has helped them averaged just over 13 PPR points
per game. But he's seating some work to
Darryl Williams, who is only averaging 6 .7 opportunities per
game, but it's not nothing. I mean, he his snap sure.
I think if you're, if you want to be encouraged by see, eh
Darryl Williams, snap sure has gone down in each of the last
Five weeks. So started at 59% in week, top
10 was down to just 29% in week 15.
But the again the frustrating part here is that Darrell
Williams is getting a lot of high-value touches.
It means at least relative to his workload.
He's had three three and two high value touches in the last
three games. So, a large portion of his
Workload are the high-value touches, I mean, he's scored
some nice, receiving touchdowns. Over the past couple weeks.
And had the only two green zone Touches for the Chiefs, this
past week in the game against. The Chargers and sort of the
high-value touches in the green zone touches as always, been a
bit of a concern for ceh. I mean you if you look back to
his Ricky year that very first game, he had when he was given
the ball three or four times inside the opponent's 5-yard
line and just didn't do anything with it.
But 11 other positive notes for ceh is that he ran around on 68%
of drawbacks in week 15, which is tied for a season high for
him. So, that's, that's really
encouraging. I think the passing work is
going to be Be what likely unlocks ceh or ceiling moving
forward? so I think rest of season, I
say, rest of season but there's only two, three weeks left,
three weeks left, CH probably an rb2 at this point with Darryl
Williams being one of the most, if not the most valuable
handcuffs. So, if for some reason Darryl
Williams gets dropped, I would certainly look to add him.
Now. Different different set of teeth
different team here with a very different.
Backfield usage, who's had a star go down recently, the
Detroit Lions, who I believe I've won two of their last three
games. If my mind is serving me
correctly, but Unfortunately, D'Andre Swift. has missed the
last three weeks went down on the Thanksgiving game and hasn't
played since don't know if he's officially been ruled out for
the season, but don't know if there's really any reason for
the Lions too. Get him active again, given the
way that their Seasons going. and in his first game, Out
Jamaal Williams was obviously the lead guy but he hasn't
played in each of the last two weeks.
Godwin equate bleak a Was also involved had a 39% snap share in
week, 13 and a 44 percent. Snapshot in week, 14.
But the story out of Detroit is it cuts down here?
Oh, Craig Reynolds. Who was given 27 total
opportunities in their win over the Cardinals.
This past week had a 75% share of the backfield touches did run
a route on 43% of drop apps which is solid and Had only had
one high-value touch equate week. 8 did have two high value
touches of his own, but one of the big problems with this
offense is there aren't a lot of green zone touches To go around
a good chunk of their touchdowns have come outside of the red
zone. Which is part of it, but the
other part of it is just that the team.
Sucks and the offense can't typically sustained drive.
So Craig Reynolds has gotten again, 13 and 27 opportunities.
The last two weeks. Looks like he's the primary back
right now but is only been able to turn that into eleven point
nine and twelve point seven PPR points but it's not like his
workload has been that big either.
He's averaging 11 and a half expected fantasy points per game
is actually averaging 0.8 fantasy points over expectation.
So, His role his performance relative to his role is not less
than you would expect. It's it's about what you'd
expect because it's not like he's getting a ton of goal line,
carries and not. Making use of them.
He's getting a lot of those between the 20 opportunities,
which is not ideal for holding a / having a fantasy ceiling.
So in any case, he is the primary back right now, looks
like he will continue to be. So dramatic, Jefferson is not
really all that involved. He hasn't had a snap share over
20% in a single game. This season has been used when
he's on the field, but doesn't have more than six opportunities
in a single game this season. So, equip week, eight, and
Reynolds certainly worth holding on to right now and could be
some sneaky DFS place. Going forward, a couple of other
quick notes on the running back position.
Mark, Ingram was back last night and that actually impacted Alvin
kamara's usage Camaro. Only had 55 percent of the
running, back carries winner out on 17 of 30 Dropbox, but did
have a solid six targets for a 22 percent Target share.
So, overall volume, not as great, for Chimera, they are
obviously playing the Bucks, who are a tough Run defense.
But it could be, it could be difficult for Camaro down the
stretch here, again given he's the he's going to compete
against taysom Hill for touches as well.
James Robinson in his first game without Urban Meyer.
Carlos Hyde was also an active but Carlos Hyde.
Well, he was just put on injured reserve this morning, but
Robinson played 84% of snaps. Had 18 of the 19 Running Back.
Carry six of the eight running back.
Targets of 15.7% Target share and ran around on 66% of drop
back. So, just an elite elite
workload, rb1 season for James Robinson.
Speaking of our be one season, it looks like Devin Singletary
is turning into the rb1 and buffalo, over his last two
games. He's played 87% of the snaps has
gotten 24 of 28 running back. Carries nine of ten running back
Targets. In this one a route on 61 plays
compared to just seven for Matt Breda.
And Zack Moss has been inactive. That's not here.
So, Austin Heckler was put on the covid-19 list as well.
And I think the next guy up here would be Justin Jackson here and
Route. 52 percent of drop backs while Eckler was limited to just
33% in the game, on Thursday night, obviously was a little
bit hobbled. Come into that game, but Eckler
did still tie the week, Week's lead for high-value touches with
seven tied with mr. Leonard fournette, the
high-value touch King and David Montgomery.
So, something to monitor there, Moving on to the wide receiver
position just in reference to than just breaking the scale on
the chart. Unfortunately did not have a
huge game last night in what set up to be an amazing game.
Had the over on his receiving yards and thought I was getting
a great value but the Bears were double and triple covering him
all night long. So distant have an extremely
efficient game but in any case want to start this off talking
about the Bucs wide receivers and where we go from here
because Chris God want unfortunately is out for the
season with a torn ACL Mike Evans is a little bit hobbled
with a hamstring injury so their wide receiver group got very
depleted, very quickly. And Antonio Brown I think is
expected to be back this week after suffering an injury and
then getting suspended for faking his vaccinations card.
Status and so that leaves a couple of different options.
First guy, I think that I'll step up is prashad perriman.
He looks like he will return this week.
Over his last three games is only averaged three targets but
has won a route on 53% of the drawbacks ring around a 90% of
Dropbox in week 13, before he got injured in week, 14, and was
at 36. Percent.
But has a an eight-point 44-yard average depth of Target.
And sort of has some knowledge of excuse me that system other
guys to potentially stand up and fill in our Tyler Johnson who is
averaging three targets per game.
Over his last five had 36 Area Arts in the game.
This past week actually led the team in With seven targets out,
I guess of the receivers led, the team with seven Targets this
past week. Jalen Darden also looks to get
involved. He had 99 are yards in the game.
This past week, only on three targets for a nice 33 yard
average. Depth of targets, healing rental
route on 55% of Dropbox, while. Tyler Johnson was at 94% of drop
backs. Scotty Miller.
Another name to watch as well had three Targets in the game
and but only scored three point, eight P PR points.
So I think Brown it, Antonio Brown.
He returns will sort of fill into the Godwin role.
Hopefully, Mike Evans injury is not that terrible and he returns
rather quickly. But I think the pecking order
that I would have is Tyler Johnson, Richard perriman, and
then Jalen Darden and Scotty Miller.
But it's, it might take a week or two a week or so to try and
figure out how that's going to get split up because it's It's
not fun when you get a bunch injury injury like that.
For the bucks. Okay, let's talk about the
Ravens pass catchers. When I say, pass catchers here
because I'm going to talk about Mark Andrews a little bit.
Even though this is the wide receiver slow section, because,
Again he's been phenomenal. Lately has had double-digit
Targets in five of his last seven games.
Truly looks like just an elite option at the tight end position
running a route on 87% of drawbacks, the last four games,
and just absolutely crushing it. That's, that's all I'll say
about him. But he certainly is sort of the,
the 1B, I guess to Marquis Browns won a, if you will
Marquis Brown over the last four games, averaging just under 10
targets per game as a 26 percent Target, share running around a
92% of drawbacks 0.5 to waited targets per Was it looking at
here? Only 12 people are points per
game and is averaging - four-and-a-half fantasy points
over expectation. Oh, that's what is looking for.
So his average, depth of Target is only seven and a half yards
over the last four game and Mark Andrews that has actually gotten
a lot more downfield. Looks, he has a ten point seven,
yard average, depth of Target and actually has a 43% area are
share compared to 28% for Marquis Brown.
So it really is just those two. Sort of in their own world and
then the rest of the guys, I said the rest of the guys and I
hate lumping were shot Bateman into that, but their their usage
is quite fluky and is all over the place.
Bateman did run a route on 96% of drawbacks this past week that
was a season high for him. I believe only missed running a
route on too. Drop backs but outside of his
eight Target game in week, 14 hasn't had more than six Targets
in the game in his last five games had just two Targets in
the game this past week. So a very low targets per out,
run rate, His, I think the positive here is that his routes
for dropout rate has risen in each of the last three weeks.
It bottomed out at 38% in week, 13.
I think I talked about him then but shot back up to 77 percent
in week. 14. And again, the 96% that I
mentioned this past week, but has struggled to maintain a role
in this offense. Sammy Watkins was also out out
this past week so that very well could have impacted batemans
usage from a routes perspective but it's good to see someone
like Devin du vernay go back down to 29 percent route rate.
After being above 60% in each of the prior two weeks.
But again Duvernay got three Targets in this game compared to
just the 24 payments. So I think certainly from a DFS
perspective. Well, from a DFS perspective,
you really got a grasp at some straws to to play anyone outside
of Andrews or Hollywood Brown. But if, if Watkins is out, I
think that's the time that Bateman will have an opportunity
to shine had a 10.15 way to targets per hour.
Run this past game, just in abysmal, Marcus second lowest
Mark of the Season behind his week, 13 performance, when he
only got one Target and right around 38% of drop back.
So I think better days ahead for Bateman hopefully Lamar return.
Young will boost his stock as well, but something something
that I'll continue to keep an eye on through the rest of the
season through hopefully the playoffs.
I think the Ravens are in a decent position to, to make the
playoffs, but they FC pictures, messy, messy.
I think it would be really interesting to get an extra game
or two sample size with Bateman just to see how he performs in
those games. A group of receivers.
That I have very little hope for and very little hope for the
team in general, is that the Chinese wide receivers Daniel
Jones is officially done for the season so they'll be relying on
mr. Mike Glennon as their starter, I
wouldn't be surprised. To see Jake from get some reps
as well. Played the either.
The last Last Driver, the last couple drives in the game
against the Cowboys. Another unfortunate injury
Sterling, Shepherd, suffered, a torn Achilles.
So he is out for the rest of the season, but I think the primary
guide that I want to talk about here is Kenny Gala day, whose
Been injured for stretches throughout this season, hasn't
really played like kenyala day at all.
But is getting some really solid usage over the last couple
weeks. So in the, in the three starts
in the three games that Glennon has started, he's running a
route on 80% of drawbacks, which is solid, as the nineteen
percent Target share 33%. Area, I'd share.
And is averaging nearly 100 yards per game has over 110 Area
Arts in each of the last two weeks, Darius Slayton isn't far
behind him. With a 24% area, I'd share a 12
percent Target share and a 78% routes run rate.
I think I hope gawad a sort of fills in some of the work that
Shepherd will. Behind.
With his injury because he was averaging about five targets per
game. But Kenny Holliday has had a way
to Target spur out. Run over 0.55 in three of his
last four games, which he had only been above twice in the
Eight games before that do a little Mental Math here, and has
had double-digit, receiving expected points in three of his
last four, but hasn't hit double-digit PPR points in the
game since week for. So not severely under producing.
I mean it's not like his receiving expected points.
Per game is up at 20. It's right around.
Ten and a half. But he still underperforming,
and he's one of those deep threat guys that could, you
know, get an end zone Target or something like that.
Get a deep shot and take it to the house.
And make up for the value and just one single play.
Languages. Favorite John Ross.
Missed a game. This past week.
Farrell Cooper. Ran a route on just 8% of
Dropbox. Got two Targets for an
outstanding 1.47. Wait re-sprout, run.
I'm just kidding. You can ignore Pharaoh Cooper.
But yeah, I think, any holiday could have a solid last couple
games. So what?
I'm trying to stay here, all right.
Do you last group of? Wide receivers as I promised
going to talk through the Titans wide receivers because again
Julio Jones got injured injured his hamstring this past week, I
think he's all but dust at this point and they're going to need
some better past catching options.
In this offense, even with AJ Brown.
Excuse me returning. And I think the best candidate.
To do that. Is Nick Westbrook.
A Keen Eye, who over the last three games is averaging five
targets per game, but is running a route on 91% of Dropbox.
Had a has a 39% area are share again, Tannehill, not throwing
the ball. A ton.
So got to keep that context in perspective, but has an 18
percent Target share, which leads the team 0.5 to Whopper
averaging about nine and a half. Receiving expected points per
game, has at least five Targets in three of his last four games.
So I think there's certainly an opportunity for him to play that
wide receiver to roll behind AJ Brown had 115 are yards in the
game. This past week, had a 0.61
weighted targets per outrun, trying to find him on the chart
here up on the top here. So had a really solid area, ards
market share over 50% in the game.
This past weekend 15, expected points in the game as well.
So, someone to keep an eye on. I mean, like, they haven't
necessarily ruled Julio out, but Even if they don't I'd rather
play Westbrook yukine then Julio at this point.
Speaking of players who are struggling Courtland Sutton now
has two or fewer catches in seven straight games, just
really struggling. Over the back half of the season
going to be very interesting to see where he's ATP lands next
season. I think a lot of that obviously
will be quarterback dependent but if they get they get a guy
like Rogers or I don't think the free-agent class for
quarterbacks is that go but if they get someone competent than
I think his ADP will be around seven or eight Someone going in
the opposite direction. I'm on Raw State Brown for the
Detroit Lions has a 33 percent Target, share over his last
three games, has double digit Targets in each of those three
games, just absolutely crushing it currently the Lions wide
receiver one and Emmanuel Sanders was out this past week,
which led to some Elite usage for Gabriel Davis, played on 63
of 70 snaps. Ran a route on 3842.
Drop back, Scott, seven targets for eight.
Twenty one percent Target share. And had five receptions for 85
yards, and two touchdowns, so really solid game for sure.
If you, if you played the truck with him in DFS, it certainly
certainly paid off All right, starting to surround the show
out here talking about the tight end position.
Everyone's favorite and I talked about Mark games earlier, But
want to talk about a different set of AFC North tight ends and
that's the Cleveland Browns they played in the game.
Last night, the absolute Thriller losing in terrible
fashion to the Las Vegas Raiders but Austin Hooper was out for
this game which led to a big usage night.
I'll say for David and joke. Ooh, who read a route on every
single drop back for the Browns in the game had five targets for
his second straight game, he missed the week.
Game and they work on by week 13.
So that's why I say the last two games because it's Been more
than two weeks, but in any case five targets is the second most
of these had me game. Only scored six.
PPR points had two Targets per outrun of one point.
Excuse me, 0.17, which is, you know, because he ran so many
rats and didn't get a ton of run.
But over his last three games has a 14, Sue's me, 15 percent
Target, share, which again, isn't terrible for.
Tight end has 0.21 targets for outrun, running a route on 64%
of drop back. So that's sort of overlays with
some of the games that Austin Hooper was playing, but Hooper
again in his last three games, as well as an 18% targets, are
running around on 66% of drop backs.
They both have a 14% area, I'd share, but are averaging right
around five targets per game. So, in the future, I mean
Harrison Bryant really didn't play much of a factor in this
game. He only ran a route on 28
percent of drawbacks. but if one of in-joke, ooh or Hooper are
out then the other ones certainly becomes A viable play,
despite not having a huge weekly.
Ceiling by any means. Another Titan that had a pretty
solid week actually really solid week.
This past week is second best game of the season.
From a fantasy perspective is Dalton Schultz who score 20.7
PPR points. Ran a route on 90% of Dropbox
and over the last three games, with each of the starting wide
receivers available is still running a route on 86%.
Out of drawbacks actually has a 14 percent Target share, Which
is higher than Amari Cooper's 12 percent Target share.
And is averaging about ten expected points per game, excuse
me, and has scored just one touchdown, but had eight Targets
in the game. This past week, which is tied
for his season high. He said eight targets.
Now four times including the game this past week so really
good to see him continue to get strong usage.
His routes run rate hasn't dropped below. 75% since we
gate. So really, really strong usage
for a tight end. Again, one of those guys who
just sort of needs to find the end zone but has score double
digit fantasy points. Excuse me, in three of us last
five games has nine point three in in another one of those
games. So I think really good dog.
Schultz having a guest, a mini break out, but solid Year all
around One other nugget from John Daigle, Zach ertz.
He got some spots here with Zach ertz available and unavailable.
So, with Hopkins, the under happens available Earth's is one
Iran about 70%. Drop backs has a 14 percent
Target share and Zach. Ertz without DeAndre Hopkins,
has Runner out on 84% of drop back.
So 14% more and 20 and a half percent Target share.
So about six percent. More and DeAndre Hopkins out for
the rest of the regular season. So look for Zach ertz to be. a
fantasy league winner with the Arizona Cardinals, as we wrap up
the season, just Just as everyone.
Predicted, all right. Now we get to the fun stuff.
I say that tongue-in-cheek because the New York Jets are
not. That fun.
Zach Wilson continues to struggle since returning from
his injury over his last four games is averaging about 31
passing attempts per game. But has Just two touchdowns does
only have two interceptions I guess that's a positive but has
a 1.6 percent touchdown rate 5.5 adjusting yards per attempt 56
percent completion percentage isn't throwing the ball down
field at all just a 6.7 average, depth of targets, only averaging
185 passing yards per game, and has a negative 13.
Excuse me - 12.8%. Deletion percentage over
expectation, which is third worst in that span ahead of just
Cam Newton and taysom Hill. So two guys that have just
struggled mightily this year that those are the only guys
that is outperforming the the Jets have become a little less
past heavy in that span for most of the season, they had a
positive path straight over expectation.
We're right around. Four or five percent but has
shifted to a negative, one percent pass rate over
expectation in those last four games. and that's, I would say
that that's benefited the backfield and the running backs
but they really haven't had that much more success here in week
15, Michael Carter returned after missing three games on
injured reserve, Ty Johnson was out of this game as well but
Carter looked like he returned to I want to say about God but
he really wasn't. He played on 44% of snaps.
Had eight opportunities. He did have excuse me.
Attend opportunity. Sorry.
My sorting got messed up here. He had 10 opportunities.
Did not record a green zone. Touch But ran around on 46% of
drawbacks, which is solid, only scored 3, PR points, Tevin
Coleman. The other guy who stayed
involved had a 30% snap. Shared got eight opportunities
did get the only two green zone Touches for the Jets.
So certainly would have liked to see those go to Carter but
Coleman was not able to take advantage of that.
By any means. Excuse me, Carter to get one,
high-value touch from the reception that he had, and was
the only running back to get targeted.
India to Target. So this team just really isn't
good enough to sustain a ton of value for Really many pieces but
want to talk about the wide receivers here because there's
been a little bit of turnover in this passing attack with Corey
Davis, and Elijah more both being out the last two weeks and
will continue to be out through the rest of the season.
This is opened up things a little bit for Jamison Crowder,
who ran a route on every single drop back this past.
Last week had eight targets, which is his most since week
eight his second most of the season.
Excuse me, over the last two weeks without them is averaging.
Seven targets has a 22 percent Target shares running around
again on 96% of dropboxes. Averaging -3.5 fantasy points
over expectation. So that's, I guess some cause
for optimism. But the other two guys that have
been kind of interesting. Our Keelan Cole who over the
last two games, is running a route on 78% of drawbacks that
second on the team. Only has a 13 percent Target
share has just six and two Targets in the last two games.
So not a ton, but he has clearly stepped into the court.
Gave us role has a 16 yard average depth of Target.
And then Braxton Barrios again, he's only running a route on 39%
of drawbacks over the last two weeks, but he did have ten
Targets in week, 14 and then had just one this past weekend.
The 10 was his actually, actually the second most in the
season he had had more than three Targets in a game.
Senses 11, Target week 2. so, I don't, I think I'd rather play.
I'd rather play key and called rather play.
Nobody, if I have other options available but col I think could
be a A decent dff start throw given.
He could break off a long run. On those deep shots.
The last team here going to talk about the San Francisco 49ers,
who have been a little bit more exciting and actually, like kind
of fun to watch as of lately, despite there.
Run. First Tendencies I talked about
Jimmy G in the episode last week, not really much has
changed about him. You still playing solid, the
49ers again, it could could make some noise in the playoffs.
I think, assuming they make the playoffs, but want to focus on.
The rest of the Playmakers because there have been.
Some changing roles here. And Elijah Mitchell has been out
the past two games. It sounds like I believe I saw a
report today that there's some optimism that he will return for
the game. This upcoming week.
You see this upcoming week or the next week, but in his
absence Jeff Wilson has been the primary guy over the last Two
games has recorded 88% of the running back touches has had
four high-value touches in the game.
This past week, ran a route on a season-high, 67% of Dropbox,
which is the I believe the highest individual mark for a
49ers running back this season, played on 88 percent.
Of snaps which is also the highest for a 49ers running back
as well. Had a really solid 20 PR points
in the game this week jamychal. Hasty someone who I thought
would have some sort of role because he was getting some past
kitchen, work earlier in the season is basically a
non-factor. He's had three and two
opportunities, the last two weeks winter Out on Just four
percent of drawbacks this past week so it's it will see what
things look like, when Mitchell gets back and how Jeff Wilson
gets used, but without Mitchell, Jeff whoops.
Sorry I lost my train of thought there without Mitchell.
Jeff Wilson is most certainly being treated like a bow back.
For most of the Season Mitchell has been treated like a
Workhorse in the two games. Before he got injured, Mitchell
played on Seventy and eighty four percent of snaps, while
Wilson was at just 14 and three percent.
So this could very well be the first time that we'd like ever
since Seen cough, Shanahan use a non Committee in his backfield,
but we'll see how that changes when we get back.
The, the other thing that I'm now realizing is that it is sort
of a committee because Debo Samuel is no longer a wide
receiver. He is the quarter of Paterson of
the West Coast and just continues to.
I mean, it's great to see that. So, a couple things just like
real football, things how versatile he is, is just
absolutely insane getting handoffs out of the backfield,
being able to run these crazy routes.
The separation, he gets all of that stuff. and to see his role
expanded, outside of just sort of being the thinking dunk guy
who gets a bunch of passes behind the line of scrimmage is,
is really good and it has helped his Fantasy value tremendously.
So I'm realizing, I don't have. The numbers in front of me, but
I meant to, I meant to pull the rushing attempts per game for
Deebo. Over the stretch of games
because it's been a non it's been a significant amount of
opportunity so much so that over his last five games or submit
over his last four games is only averaging three targets per
game, but he still averaging 17 PPR points per game.
He's found the end zone. Rushing the ball is averaging
over seven fantasy points over expectation.
The good thing is, he's still he's running around.
Around 83% of drop backs. I mean he only has an 11 percent
Target share, which is behind Juwan Jennings over that span.
So while his past kitchen work has certainly declined.
He's making up for it and some with the Russian workload that
he does have. So I guess from that
perspective, we're still seeing a bit of a committee in San
Francisco and it will be very, very interesting to see Howdy Bo
gets used when Mitchell gets back and if they revert him back
to really just catching passes. But without Debo Samuel, playing
a big factor in the passing game.
Obviously George Kittle has just had a monster stretch of games.
Only had six Targets in the game this past week.
But over his last five games has a 28 percent Target, share, 30%
area, are share a .49 racer, which is just absurd, especially
with the really not a super deep.
And not a super shallow 8 yard average.
Depth of Target is averaging nearly 100 receiving yards per
game. Just continues to absolutely
crush. It him and Mark Andrews are The
top-tier in the tight end position right now.
Travis Kelce obviously had a big game this past week but he had
had A bit of a slump but it'll also running around an 87% of
drawbacks. And speaking of players, Whose
role has changed. Brandon IU has run a route on
over 92% of drawbacks in each of his last eight games, after
being over 90% 0 times. In the first seven weeks of the
season, and being over 80%, just once in his first five games.
So has truly had a great Second half of the Season only had two
Targets in the game this past week, but ran a route on every
single drop back for the third time.
This season, over his last five games, has a 23 percent Target,
share, 33 percent area of share. Again, running around on 96% of
Dropbox, he's just been again aside from the game this past
week. I think is more of an anomaly
but continues to just have an incredible second half of the
season and hopefully you hauled out held out, hope with Brendan
I Uke, All right. That is it for the show today.
Thank you all for tuning in. Please like this video.
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