Week 17 is over. The Fantasy championships are
officially written in stone for the 2023 NFL season, but are we
really approaching the real fantasy season?
Playoff best ball is here, the FFPC Playoff Challenge is here,
and it's also showdown slate season in the NFL playoffs.
We'll take you through all that and more on stat chasing Pat
Fryer, Helmo. This is why This is why I'm Hot
Anita Handjob. Fix your sight, Jamar Alpha.
Play Chase. You can't handle the heat.
It looks like we're finally at this point here, right?
All right. We made it.
We made it through the 2023 fantasy season.
And I mean, I I don't know about you, Draco, my my results
weren't fantastic for best ball this season.
But All in all I would say it was a pretty successful fantasy
season. Had a bunch of had a bunch of
good teams that had some fun sweats all along the way.
But I think at the end of the day, it's it's not about, you
know, how much you win, It's about the friends that you make
along the way, right? Well definitely definitely feel
that I've got one this season making friends with you.
Oh and I yeah I was. I was so I was honestly so
pumped heading into the playoffs.
Like I I'd like gotten so many different exposure things right
and and then yeah basketball just got the first week of
playoffs just got just got punched in the face I I I was
talking to you about it a little bit I was I was like a little
bitter bitch and I was totally tilting I was I was really upset
about it and but after after about a week and I said you know
and just can't can't do can't do anything about what's past can
only only focus on on on on on the the future.
And I think, I think in the last week I've entered and this is
probably nothing that most people have entered about 40
different playoff basketball after having not not done any
before. So trying, trying to, trying to
turn the corner. I'm I'm glad I got you to get
into playoff basketball. I think.
I I think I get to take credit for that, right?
Yeah. Honestly, I would have been a
little bit more of a salty bitch myself with the way that the
season shook out for me, for the regular season stuff I had.
I learned from last year. I did the stupid thing of going
back when when I saw Mike Evans go off in week 17 and one of my
four DK Milli Semi finals teams had Mike Evans on it, I think
also at DJ Moore. I like I went back and looked at
that one and realized like I probably would have won all the
money. It's like, I don't need that's.
I'm never going to do that again.
Unnecessary information. Yeah, that.
Was it was like it's like the you know, dead dove inside do
not open and I'd open it. It's like I don't know what I
like. I now I'm sad.
This is really stupid. So I didn't do that this season.
I had some pretty strong teams in the semis, but the semis went
pretty poorly for me. Overall.
I was like it's just right about expectation if if you just take
like the neutral advance rate. But like man, I didn't have very
many dead roster spots. Like my teams are pretty
stacked. They were all optimized for the
playoffs with plenty of game stacks, you know.
So I I was like I I think I could very reasonably go above
like the expected advance rate but I did not had had some OK
finishes. But really the thing that has
made me the least salty is just getting to fire off at playoff
best ball and knowing that after the games wrap this Sunday I'm
going to get to start working on FFPC ownership for the playoff
challenge over there, which I'm super, super excited to talk
about. I have already started.
You know I think you as well have already started.
We've got some of the ship chasing folks who split a
mastiff earlier this year. We took some of that.
Did we min cash or do you make semi finals in the Mastiff?
I We made the, we made the semi finals I believe and.
Now and let us down. That's what.
However it still feels like a min cash with like we only got
1.5 X or entry fee so snow feels pretty min cashy.
Yeah so so for those who are not in the 23 man mastiff Co draft
group, which you highly recommend Co drafting and voting
on picks with 23 different people, it's it's super easy
especially when you make Phil do all of the work but.
I just remember that the power surge of like everybody voting
one way and then like trying to argue everybody back.
Oh, there was a lot of there was some politics.
There was some politics for sure.
It was pretty funny, honestly, getting getting the vote blocks,
you know, people going in and trying to whip up some votes for
their favorite pick. That was it.
Honestly, was a bunch of fun. I I felt really bad for it.
Was stupidly annoying, especially when you got into
like the 17 rounds. The 17/5.
Rounds. The second Mastiff that we're
doing what are on round 17 is like, all right, fuck it guys,
we're just taking these. But anyway, that group of 23 min
cashers, we have now rolled over our massive winnings from the
Mastiff and they are being diversified across a large
number of different playoff contests and formats.
So I believe that we have 5 FFPC teams and you and I are each
captaining A subgroup that is in charge of constructing 1 of the
five teams. And then we also have two
entries earmarked for the Big Mitten that myself and Chris G
plan on drafting after this weekend slate wraps up.
So we have maximum information, we're going to go do those
drafts, I believe, over on a leg upstream.
We haven't for sure ironed out all the details yet, but keep
your eyes peeled for that. I'm sure we'll, you know, we'll
announce it in the Discord, especially for those of you who
have equity in those teams. We'll let you know.
So hopefully we can run that up. But anyway, I I for the playoff
contest and I think that's a good segue into the charts for
this week because if you're tuning in here and you're like,
what are two idiots going to talk about?
Fantasy football season is over. I don't really care about the
charts. Well, Oak on Tremain Montfrer
fantasy football season is still alive and well for 2023.
We've got all this playoff contest content to go through.
And then I also think one of the things that I really like and I
think is a strong suit for you, Draco, just in in chopping it up
with you about Bestball is your ability to kind of get a good
read on how the market is going to handle players.
And then also have your own take of, yeah, the market's going to
have, you know, I I think about, you know, what you were saying
about Rashi Rice, which got me to draft more Rashi Rice near
the end of this offseason. When you're saying, you know,
he, he probably should be like a a tenth round pick here, like it
doesn't really make any sense where he's going.
I could easily see him being like a sixth round pick next
year. It's just like that.
For whatever reason, my brain hadn't gotten to thinking it
through that way. And when you said it that way,
it helped click for me. And so I definitely think you
can provide some really interesting insights to the
people for some of the way too early best ball drafts, which
believe it or not, are only a couple months away at this
point. Couple weeks.
I think I heard the FFPC never too early.
Is it gonna open at January 17th?
Man, that I mean, even for a true, true, disturbed individual
like myself, that might be a little too early.
Even for. Me, I mean, I maxed the big
board and and that was my one of my better tournaments as far as
my advance rate and ROI on it. And yeah, that that way too
early. Starting in January might be a
little early even for me. I I need like a few weeks break
before I start firing again, you know?
I'm, I'm, I'm just, I, I, I I feel like a sperm from the 23
season and I'm I'm just honestly, I could be the guy who
just lost all his chips like sending it, sending even more
back. But I I just feel ready to go.
That's that's good. You're letting it motivate you.
And you know, I I think a motivated Draco is something
that if you're a competitor, you don't want to see in your lobby.
You fire up the lobby and you see pissed off Draco.
I think. I think all of your team names
on the FFPC need to have that as some kind of theme.
Well thank you very much for the the, the kind words and have
definitely really enjoyed doing the the, the show which you
definitely learned a lot from hearing me talk so excited to
excited to get into these these charts.
Oh I am not AI don't have to present.
OK. So same same quarterback chart
we've had all season and honestly we've one one thing
that I think it is interesting about this chart is we've we've
sort of noted before that we don't have the volume piece in
here. We just have the efficiency
piece and and this is a very efficiency that this chart is
designed to highlight efficiency both through touchdown rate and
then adjusted yards per temp which is like yards per temp but
rewards such stands punishes interceptions.
And I honestly wonder with the the sort of variance of playoff
basketball, with it being like just four weeks of games and
then only for the teams that make to the Super Bowl, I almost
wonder if the if the the efficiency stuff is actually of,
like greater importance than much greater importance than the
volume stuff. That's an interesting way to
frame it and let me let me try and dissect it and think through
to what I I think you're getting at here.
Would you say that the reason for that is quarterbacks with
these really high efficiencies are the ones that might have
access to those spike week games at a higher frequency than the
guys with say for example, like let's take a volume type guy,
gosh, who's a who's a good volume exam?
Josh Allen Josh Allen is a He's a volume player.
So, and he hasn't been quite as efficient Now, a big part of his
fantasy production in recent weeks has come on the ground
through his legs. But would you say it's It's safe
to say that while Josh Allen probably has like lower downside
deviation because he has that rushing upside because he's such
a high volume passer, you know you've got that better downside
deviation. It's lower than other
quarterbacks, but maybe the rate at which he can access spike
weeks could be a little lower than say, Purdy or Lamar or Dak
Prescott, these more efficient quarterbacks.
And then the other to add an additional layer of context to
that. That's not to say that Josh
Allen can't score points at the same frequency that those guys
do that are are high point scoring weeks.
It's just like within their own distributions of the points that
these guys score, Josh Allen doesn't access his ceiling at
the same rate that those other guys.
I I think that's a reasonable description of of the Josh Allen
experience and he's he's actually if you if you look at
Josh Allen's fantasy scoring I think he's the top scorer on the
year and but it it's like it's it's a lot more sort of steady
Eddie and a little bit like Jalen Hurts sort of like you
have that you have the touch push stuff which is is
essentially insane insanely great volume stuff and doesn't
really fail and and definitely has has access to a ceiling but
it's a little different than Lamar Jackson who who's insanely
efficient and like almost every game and then you add a game
where he has the volume like against the Dolphins and and and
he puts up the score that you can't beat essentially.
Yeah, I would. I think I've teased this before.
I've like talked about this concept, but downside deviation
in quarterback is something that I've looked at in the past and
then I'm probably gonna do that. That might be one of my projects
this offseason that I'll I'll have over it, leg up and I'll.
I'll kind of pull back the curtain a little bit and show
you guys some of the stuff that I was using to evaluate what
quarterbacks were acceptable to take on solo quarterback builds
in best Ball this season. Because I actually think that's
going to be a pretty important. I think it's something that's
underutilized by the field right now.
It's not something you should do very frequently, but when you do
it, you want to make sure you're doing it with the correct
archetype of quarterback, and it's kind of an archetype that
hasn't been correctly identified or classified in my opinion.
And so I need to pretty that up and make it presentable to other
people. And not just me, but I think
that might be that. That's one of my project ideas
here for this offseason. But anyway, Josh Allen.
You know, just as a a little spoiler, Josh Allen and Jaylen
Hurts. Both are two of those
quarterbacks that fall into that classification.
And that might be like a, well, duh, they're the elite
quarterbacks. But it's, you know, not all
elite quarterbacks fall into that category like Lamar Jackson
absolutely does not, because Lamar has a larger downside
deviation. There are games where Lamar hits
a floor outcome that's more like a true floor outcome for non
elite quarterbacks, where Josh Allen and Jalen Hurt's floor is
more like a Jared Goff mean game, right?
And that's the big that's kind of what you're looking for.
But I I won't. I won't give it all away here.
So the other thing about the efficiency stuff is so obviously
this this is for the weeks, this is week 17.
So we've got all 17 weeks and 16 weeks of games for each of these
players and Mahomes here is sitting in in in right in the
middle here and I I I I think that's sort of interesting in
that like it's it's like obviously a down a big down year
for Mahomes is like average which goes to show how how good
he is and then obviously you're getting you're getting a large
discount on Mahomes in playoff best ball and then then I'm I'm
guessing you ever have before and you're getting a large
discount on on players like on on his pass catchers his wide
receiver one and two I it it does make me wonder if like like
the if the Chiefs go to the Super Bowl you're going to want
to have chief sacks obviously. But if that has to be on the
back of their defense does that I guess how how much how much
like take away can we get from like Mahomes having having being
one of the lower efficiency players of the quarterbacks
there on this chart especially when you're just looking at
playoff guys. I think there's a lot to unpack
there. The first thing I want to think
through is like, what happens to Patrick Mahomes on this chart?
What happens to his adjusted yards per attempt and his TD
rate if we give him let's just let's live in like total
fantasyland right now and say that the Chiefs magically get
Marvin Harrison Junior. OK, so like, what happens then?
Like what? How does that change Pat
Mahomes? Does he all of a sudden go to
like where Tua and Lamar are? Does he get all the way to where
Purdy is? How does that change where he
sits on the chart? I, I, I I mean I think from a
never too early like next year like if if I'm a betting man and
I sort of am. If you're telling me that I can
bet on that Mahomes efficiency being like dramatically better
in 2024-2025 season than it was the 2324 season.
Like that that that feels like almost like a short thing,
whereas like it's. Hard.
It's hard to get wide receivers worse than what he has right
now, right like. And you're talking about like a
a pure, like nails nailed on Hall of Fame player.
Like just because he has a down ear doesn't mean like doesn't
mean we're we're adjusting to this new new reality where Pat
Mahomes isn't that good. Like, that's the one thing that
we do know. Yeah, I mean, if you go back and
look at these guys that are like these elite passers in in their
prime, you know, like I'd say it's pretty safe to say Pat
Mahomes is squarely in his prime right now.
Now the quarterback position is 1, where as long as the physical
traits don't fall off, like your prime can be a pretty, pretty
large window, right? Yeah, but, like, if you look at
guys like Aaron Rodgers, back when Aaron Rodgers was like the
quarterback won forever, you know, there were years where
he'd go between like quarterback one and quarterback 6.
And I think he, he even had one that was like as low as like
quarterback eight or nine, if I'm remembering right.
But then every other year around it was like QB1QB2QB1QB2.
And so getting these anomalous years where it's like, yeah,
it's just a bad year, dude. Like stuff happens.
It's a it's a game with a lot of randomness.
And this is, you know, probably the worst receiving core he's
ever going to have. You know, you're also relying so
much on an aging Travis Kelsey, who suffered an ankle sprain and
then came back and basically played through it the whole
season. And like, just up until, like
maybe the last two weeks, I really felt like I noticed
Kelsey lacking, you know, explosiveness and burst.
You know, even more so than he was looking like prior to the
ankle sprain. Like, he's definitely gotten
older. But before the ankle sprain, it
was still like, Oh yeah, this guy is, he's got the Titans of
the league. Yeah, but for, you know, the
majority of this season after that ankle sprain, to me, just,
you know, watching the games, watching Kelsey is like, dude,
There were plays where he tried to turn and then after trying to
turn, he just laid down on the field.
It's like, whoops, my ankle can't do that.
And he'd like hobble off to the sideline afterwards.
There's lots of times where I noticed stuff like that.
But in the last two weeks I can think of a couple plays where
it's not going particularly well for the Chiefs and he's like
very clearly frustrated and he just goes Hulk mode like truck
sticks. A couple people like does does
vintage Kelsey looking stuff and you're like oh that's there's
Zeus that's the dude. So I I wonder if, you know, a
big part of the home's efficiency is you, you got that
Hanford Kelsey and then they really weren't willing to fully
trust Rashi Rice this season, which I think probably was more
of a personnel error than anything, right?
Like I think you just gotta knowing what your receiver room
looks like, you gotta lean into that.
So I I wouldn't be surprised if Mahomes efficiency in the
playoffs actually gets closer to what he's been historically.
And yeah, like you said next season to bet on his efficiency
to get a little closer to what he had done historically, I
think feels like a pretty good bet to me.
Right. And.
So yes. So essentially you're if you're
drafting Chiefs you're sort of saying you're you're telling
yourself the story where this early season injury for Kelsey
has been hampering him. But come the playoffs it's like
it's playoff. It's playoff time like you you
figure it out and and and and perhaps we get a a much closer
to and vintage Kelsey than we did this season.
I think I think the other thing that's interesting and I know
this is like a separate thing and if you're betting on the the
Chiefs to turn it around like you almost you almost that's
reliant on a turd guide to emerge right Like if if it's not
if it it almost needs if it's not the defense that just goes
that dominates every opponent like you need them some turd
receiver to like figure it out or a marriage that becomes like
even for just a couple of games an important player for them.
I can definitely see the thought process behind that.
I would wonder if what if they just really lean into a a pretty
concentrated target tree between Rashi, Rice, Travis, Kelsey,
Just feed them and then Pacheco's their functional run
game. Like, is that enough for their
offense to be like or or will defenses just be able to take
that away 'cause it's like, OK, let's just double Kelsey, we'll
double Rice and then we dare you to throw to MBS.
You know, like Double Dog dare you to throw to MBS.
And yeah, and that makes sense and and by the way on your comp
to to Rogers. So in 2015 Rogers was the QB 9
and but then here's QB one the next year QB 6.
The year after that and and and I guess Mahomes, this year has
been QB 13 and so pretty close yeah?
And the reason I remembered Rodgers was QB nine one year was
'cause I think like back in early Dak career when he had, he
had had like a pretty solid start as a fantasy quarterback.
I think he was like QB 6 his first full season or something,
and never outside the top ten like QB 623 or something like
that. I remember getting into a heated
argument with someone in my home league about how Dak was
basically the same thing as Aaron Rodgers for fantasy
football, and I cited the Aaron Rodgers finishing as QB 9.
So it's funny, the stupid stuff that your brain remembers, but I
I did remember that about Aaron Rodgers Fantasy finishes.
And and I guess on on the on the concentrated this to me this is
a crazy start Rashi rice like regardless if it not not target
for a run not none of the roof participation stuff just flat
out target share over week 12 through week 17 was at 27% and
so I guess to me that is like it it it it in terms of rice it's
been pretty concentrated. So what you're really saying
because I know it hasn't been concentrated the Kelsey, what
you're really saying is Kelsey sort of a marriages and then can
and those two can be complementary to each other and
that is what sort of Sparks said.
Yeah. I think that's really the way to
play the Chiefs is that it's the return of Kelsey And then I I do
believe that you probably should play it both ways.
Where the Chiefs are successful and they're either successful a
because Kelsey comes back and he's much more of himself.
And then the Chiefs were successful because Rice has
emerged and now they have Kelsey and and their defense is great
right. And and they have Papa Holmes
who's you know one of the best if not the best quarterback in
the league right now. Right.
And then the other outcome is
Kelsey is more of a shadow of himself but he's still able to
contribute in some meaningful ways to the team.
Maybe not as great for you for fantasy, but then you do what
you were talking about off betting on one of these other
guys to emerge betting, You know, like, God, I hate that I'm
blowing this guy up now and I've, I've heard other people
start talking about. It pretty sad.
I don't know so much. I know who you're going to say.
Yeah, it's Richie James. Because, you know, I, we've seen
Richie James do this at other places too.
Like he, you know, at the Giants is like, Oh yeah, Richie James
is like one of our most competent receivers.
We can throw this guy the ball and you're just dealing with not
a lot of target competition there in Kansas City.
It's like Travis Kelsey, Rashi Rice and no one else.
And so to think that Richie James could get 15 to 18% target
share doesn't seem like that far of a stretch for me.
And he's free in these playoff basketball drafts.
And so if you're building a Kansas City goes to the Super
Bowl type team, Richie James feels like such a strong bet to
me to have on it because you're saying like it's almost just
like you said, it's almost necessary for someone to emerge
and do something for this team. And so that's why I really like
the Richie James bet for the Chiefs.
I think we also should shift gears to the team that's become
the most accessible to get. They just slide all the time and
playoff best ball now and that's the Eagles now.
My big Eagle's fade is feeling fantastic right now.
But I have to tell you that the thesis behind my Eagle's fade
was more that Jalen Hurts had a legitimate long term injury that
we haven't been. They haven't fully disclosed to
us yet. Like that knee injury was
actually more serious than we've been, you know, made aware of.
But I gotta tell you, the last couple weeks he looks a lot more
like his old he's he's running and like getting up to speed and
like he's not making violent cuts or anything.
But that never was really part of his game.
When he's running, he's more of like a a power runner, you know,
If anything, the. Guy Squats Squats 600 lbs.
Yeah, but like the last couple of Eagles games, I'm like, oh
shit, my thesis might not be right because that looks like a
healthy guy. I am.
I've I've seen some some tweets that essentially the Eagle's
offensive efficiency in the last couple of games has been very
very good. They've they've blown up the
scoreboard but their defense has been awful their defense has
been shipping points and and that's why they they keep losing
games and they they they had fired their defensive
coordinator they decided Mac Patricia was going to be the
solution and and and and that just sort of made it worse.
So I that that that's one where I think like if the Eagle if the
Eagles make it to the Super Bowl like you know you know that
their offense well if you're basing off the last couple weeks
their offense is likely been very very strong very efficient
and and putting up points it's like what I I think almost what
you need to happen is their defense will improve their
defense to figure out how do we how do we get our linebackers to
cover all these 49er players and and and so forth.
Yeah, I I definitely agree with you.
The Eagles offense has looked way more functional and prior to
the last couple games their offense was looking pretty
dysfunctional, which was part of why the fade felt so good to me.
It was like, what does this team have going for it?
Their offense is broken now. Their defense is broken and and
so now it feels like the offense is starting to get back on track
a little bit for me. You know, I still have a pretty
healthy fate on the Eagles because of the volume of teams
that I've drafted. I will never be able to get to a
place that is neutral on the Eagles and and honestly, like
even still I'm like, I'm not finding my way to them very
often because their path is most likely through the 49ers which
just feels really thin to me. But I've gotta like, I want to
be honest and say like, prior to this last week.
And I know that they lost to the Cardinals and that's why they're
dropping and ever and feels way worse about the Eagles.
But I'll tell you because my thesis was so based in Jalen
Hurt's injury and he doesn't look injured to me anymore, or
or at least like he's way closer.
And and and keep plank of your of your T's is.
It's crumbling in front of my eyes.
And so I'm way more scared about my fade than I I I was, like,
ready to take that to the bank. You know, before I saw him play
in Arizona. And now I'm like, oh shit, I
might have got out over my skis a little bit, like on estimating
the severity of that injury. And so I think that I might get
bailed out on the fade because they dropped the game and
they're going to have to go through the 49ers.
But gosh, I yeah I do think that if you have a big Eagle's fade
like I do you might be interested in mixing some of
them in at cheap prices. Especially in the gauntlet where
you get an advantage on your opponents who have all these.
You know A.J. Brown you can get in the second.
You can get A.J. Brown in the late 2nd sometimes
2-3 turn, you know in gauntlet drafts right now and everyone
else has him in like you know the mid first so or the 1st. 50%
of the contest has him in the mid 1st and so that's such a
large advantage in my opinion that I'll probably be.
I'm going to be looking to do that in those rooms where I'm in
a structure where it makes sense to utilize Eagles, maybe as an
advance rate piece or you know something or other like that.
I'll be looking to take advantage of those sliding
prices in the gauntlet, even though I've got a pretty heavy
Eagles fade, so. Got it.
Yeah, that makes sense. And so I'm going to use this
chart to ask you a question that I know you've been feeling quite
a bit. So Rashad White and and and and
just to just to highlight one more time, this, this chart is
only the last four weeks, the average of the last four weeks.
Rashad White is somebody who you've been sort of excited
about all season especially relative to to market sentiment
and and given this price that he's sort of a bell go that is
is useful in the passing game. So he has, even if it's not the
pure profile, he has this sort of profile where he's using the
run game. He's using the pass game.
So he's versatile and and can score points and I, I, I, I, I,
I'm sort of leading the witness here but what what are you doing
with a player like Rashad White who you know they're they're not
the bottom seed and they they lucky do make the playoffs and
honestly they're going to project well.
Yeah, the the thing that I've been doing with the Bucks in
general, because so much of playoff basketball is it's not a
player takes kind of contest, It's a team level.
You know, what's the probability that this team makes the
conference championship? Really is like the driving
factor behind everything. 5%, apparently.
Yeah. And so the Bucks are thin to do
that. But for me, I was so light on
Bucks and specifically the combination that I didn't have
hardly any of before That I'm willing to do now is I had
almost no Bucks Cowboys because it looked almost like a sure
thing that the Bucks and Cowboys were going to face each other in
round one. Now it looks pretty likely that
it's going to be Bucks and Eagles round one and so the
combination that I previously was willing to do which would
have been Eagles Bucks is now off the menu.
I'd I'd never draft that and now I'm willing to draft Cowboys
Bucks and I do think those are teams like now we're going to we
can get a little bit into player takes here like but think about
the match ups for both of those teams not just in round one of
the play offs but into round two of the play offs.
So the Cowboys either get you know the Rams or the Packers in
week one at home. Cowboys are averaging 40 points
a game at home. Like those are some pieces you
might want to have in playoff basketball.
Even if you don't think the Cowboys are going to the Super
Bowl, the path, the conference championship game, about as
clean as it can be, you know. So they they feel really good
for that just in like a raw point scoring ability.
And you marry that with the probability they make the
conference championships. The Cowboys might be some of the
best clicks in the tournament. And I'm as a as a you know,
eternal pessimist Cowboys fan, I don't even think they're making
the Super Bowl and I think they're one of the best clicks
in the tournament. And so then when you look at the
Bucks, it's the. Are you OK with me showing this,
by the way? Showing what?
Oh oh, I didn't this. Yeah, yeah.
Absolutely. OK, yeah.
When you when you look at the Bucks playing the Eagles who we
just talked about, their defense has been a sieve like.
So I get you're telling me I can combine Cowboys Bucks who are
going to be two of the offenses in the best situation just put
up lots of points in round one and I'm always really aggressive
with my teams like I'm building them with lots of Ravens.
I'm building them, you know, sometimes with 49ers.
Obviously you can't do a Dallas and Tampa Bay combo with 49ers
unless you're doing something with like 5 bye week players and
then you're willing to punt off, you know, one or two players
that are just going to be dead in round two for you.
But we won't get too much into the game theory aspect of it
there. But to to circle back to your
Rashad White question, yes, I'm drafting Rashad White.
Typically, I will not take as much Rashad White as I would
Mike Evans because roster construction considerations
typically push me towards wanting to take a wide receiver
on an underdog team as opposed to a running back on an underdog
team. Just the way that I like to
construct my rosters for optimizing for the way that I
think this contest should be played.
But there are going to be times where I'm thin enough at running
back that I'm willing to do something like Rashad White,
Mike Evans, Skinny Stack, get me through the early rounds.
If the Bucks win round one, great.
If they win round two, I'm because the way that I play the
game, the Bucks are never my primary stack.
If I've advanced to round three, it's probably because my primary
stack with my quarterback is going to the conference
championship. And so in the event that I am in
the conference championship round and I have my primary
stack alive and I have Rashad White, Mike Evans alive, I bet
you I'm like 70 plus percent to advance to the Super Bowl at
that point because of the way that I build my teams for the
contest. And so yeah.
My guess is just I guess just to to ask to to sort of dive in
here. So Tampa Bay it says here at 69%
to make the playoffs. Nice.
Very nice. 5% to to make the conference championship and I
guess the question is, is, is is roughly speaking as a 69% chance
to make the playoffs is that enough and for us to be drafting
them now prior to this weekend and when there's there's
outcomes where they don't make it or next next week you'll
you'll know you'll you'll just know who's in the playoffs.
Right. They're right on them.
And Jacksonville are right on the threshold for me of like
it's OK to take them. They're But you shouldn't be
starting your draft with the plan of I'm gonna go Mike Evans
and Rashad White and those are my advance rate pieces.
Like that's what happens. That's what you do when you get
forced into that path of the game tree.
Like this is the thing that makes the most sense for me.
I already have Dallas, so I I. Built my Dallas stack and let's
say I I have AI. I, I, I, I have a a stock on the
other side where the QB is already gone.
Oh shit. Somebody just took my yeah some
somebody just took what's Dak Prescott.
Now I got to figure out a quarterback stock.
OK who's there Trevor Lawrence and and and Jacksonville.
I I don't know. You're probably not doing Baker
Mayfield on Tampa Bay. Yeah, I probably as far as like
the grossest solo quarterback that I'll do for like this team
could make a run like Matt Stafford, Joe Flacco.
Those ones are like, 'cause you see their their odds of
conference championship is 15% for Stafford and 22% for Flacco.
That's high enough for me. You know like in the outcomes
where that plays out like I'm cooking.
But yeah I wouldn't do Baker like my break glass in case of
emergency wouldn't be on taking Baker Mayfield and it's bucks
all the way, baby. It would more so be like I've
got five players on buy and I'm literally on my my round one
player that's hitting my lineup right now is like Tony Pollard
and Brandon Cooks and then I'm like staring down who are my my
last three players gonna be to fill out my starting roster.
It's like, oh. It's not gonna be the the turd
string tight ends for for. The Ravens?
No. No.
Yeah, yeah, I I at that point that I'm like, well, it's gross.
It probably doesn't work the vast majority of the time, but
it's logical. It keeps me within structure.
And when I win playing the game this way, I win a
disproportionate amount of money compared to playing it in the
less optimal fashion. So, OK.
And that that makes sense. Can.
I'm.
I'm going to. I'm gonna go back to our our.
Regularly scheduled programming. Yeah, just I thought it made
sense to show that in in the context of the conversation and
it's. OK to be proud of that that
infographic? Draco I.
I, you know, I I spend a lot of time working on it.
I'm really proud of. It I really I dude, I've sent it
around to a bunch of people. I've been like, look at this
cool thing Draco whipped up. I think it's like really
intuitive way to look at all the conference championship odds.
It's nice and neat, you know, Shows all the playoff stuff, so
it's good, man. Thank you and then I think Kyron
Williams he's another example of a player like Rashad White but
he he feels a lot better he he's obviously much more expensive
and than Rashad White but it it it feels better given that your
your your conference championship odds are 15% and
you know he he's playing well and and and the Rams offensive
have been notably or it seems to me anyway notably better than
than the Bucks that that that feels like an emotional take but
I I think is right too. Yeah, no, I I agree with you.
And the the hard part about the Rams for me is like, I really
like them to help me get bye week heavy teams through.
But I don't really want them when I have San Francisco,
because they're gonna see San Francisco in round two pretty
much no matter what happens. Right.
Barring, if you're taking a, if you have a, if you have a one
seed stack, you cannot take the six or seven, right?
Just that that those are just. You're betting.
Yeah, you're betting on something that's way too thin in
my opinion. And so then it's like, all
right. So now I'm pigeon holed into
when I have Lamar and Raven stacks, that's when I can do the
Ram stuff. And the the fickle thing about
playoff best ball is like a lot of times you'd be in a room
where doing the Lamar and Ravens build, everything falls
beautifully and you're able to go like Tyron and Puka and
you're like sick. This is like this is a
powerhouse here. I'm going to be able to advance
this thing and then you're in another room where everything
goes off basically the exact same.
You got the Lamar setup. You're you're looking good for
your Super Bowl matchup. You're feeling strong about it.
You know maybe your your Cowboys and and Ravens and then all of a
sudden it's like and Kyron Williams just got taken at pick
26. Fuck me like like this great
plan I had is now unavailable and for me that's how I want
most of my ram's exposure to come is through my Baltimore
builds and God I'm just. I mean it's so funny.
I do. Think that one of the the
hardest things about play playoff basketball is the pivots
When you get turned away there your your range of of acceptable
options are much narrower. So figuring out a pivot under
time pressure, it is. It's a skill you have to build
and and and and. It's the most difficult thing, I
think, and one of you have to do it.
One of the biggest flaws I see even good people that are like
sharp drafters, good, good best ball players overall.
Might not be the best playoff best ball players, but one
mistake I see people make all the time is they'll get blown up
on what they want to do as plan A and they'll say forget
everyone in this room, I'm gonna nuke this draft and I'm just
gonna worry about advancing and min caching and.
I thought, I thought you were describing me for a second but
like yeah, that I that that's awful.
Like that you you should just go to the casino.
Yeah, the the the trying to min cache thing is like if you've
ever I mean like now I'm telling you so like don't feel bad about
it like just don't do it anymore.
But if after you've heard this you're like I'm just gonna try
and min cash like that is the stone worst thing you can do
like and and you don't even have to take my word for it like just
go do the expected value math on the tournament.
In fact, I mean, let me just figure I I put this together
'cause I was having this conversation with someone in a
Discord channel. And send me the screenshot and
I'll throw it up if you want. Here I'm just I'm sharing this
and are we resumed. Let's let's zoom a little bit
here. Hideaway.
There we go. OK, so this is just like over
here we have prize structure and all that stuff, but but what I
did here is you've got your base advance rate.
So this is purely just the probabilities of advancing based
on the structure SO2 of 6/2 of 14 one of eight.
Right. You're neutral.
This is for the Gauntlet.
And then I have adjusted advance rate and I just put this
together to show as a thought experiment for like the min Cash
Bros why it's so bad. And so for people that have
followed some of the playoff basketball content, we've put
out about how large an advantage you can have in round three.
Where like you could quite literally get to 100% advance
rate in your round three pods if you're playing the game
correctly. And so like this 45% adjusted
advance rate in my opinion is like that's probably like your
worst case scenario for the teams that things go well for
that you actually, you know get here and I I've got your
adjusted advance rate out of round one all the way down at
10% which is like that that would be like pretty close to
what you're. Doing only your your very best
teams are getting true. Yeah, that that would, that
would be like what your advance rate would be taking a zero at
quarterback every week. So like even if you do something
like say 15%, so you're like I'm half, I'm less than half neutral
advance rate. Like when you look at the
expected value difference and we can we can even drop this a
little and say that say instead of 45 we're at only .4.
It's like you look at the EV and this is for Max.
Entering both of these you're you're like dominating.
You're like $1000 more EV playing the contest through
optimizing for the later rounds and not worrying about your min
cache. Like you can nuke this round one
rate all the way into the ground.
Like literally only having four active players, you know, and
you'll still be plus EV. If you're just just for a
demonstration put what if you put in 5% and 20%?
055 percent in round one? Yeah.
Oh God. I mean, I don't even think
that's. Possible without life?
I don't think it's possible either.
And then oh. OK.
So 515 from 15 to 5, it's like,
OK. So, yeah, OK.
So that you you that that's 1/6 of the base rate.
Sorry. Yeah, you'd have to.
I mean, 'cause last Year 5% of teams advanced or would have
advanced taking a zero at quarterback, like literal 0
points and that was one of six. So like 10% feels extremely low
to me for. Yeah, yeah, yeah, honestly, 15.
If you're if you're out here building aggressive teams where
you're like I'm building 5 bye week players and only five
active, then you might be somewhere between 10 to 15%
advance rate. But you you honestly.
It's the It's the equivalent of 8% advance rate in in normal
basketball. Yeah, yeah.
Which is just like you can't really do like if if you looked
at Easy's BBM sheet that he had in the deposit Kingdom, like
even the worst people were like not at 8%.
You know, like you, you could like and look at this even even
if you only have 30% advance rate from the finals round,
which like I promise you, if you play this contest the correct
way of optimizing for the conference championship round.
Like you are going to turn the cards over and have like however
many teams you got to the finals.
You're going to be like, I'm advancing all of these, but
maybe two. You know, like it's going to be
real good. Yeah, it's just so much of the
EV is in that round. You know, like getting into the
finals is all the EV. And so optimizing for the round
where you can, like you literally can get yourself to
100% here. And it's not like a, oh that
happens once in a blue moon. It's like if you build the way
I'm telling you to build, you could get this to 100%, you
know, on a chunk of your your rosters.
And and you're only you're only what you call it.
You're only quote UN quote only you're it's not like this is is
is that extreme you're you're probably what 2 1/2 X the the
base rate and and and the logic there is that the logic is that
most people who are building teams they're drafting teams
with five or six like different drafted teams or or or maybe
even 7 and so by the time they get to the conference
championship they have like two players that three players that
and if you're building if you're building the hub six or seven
and and and most people have two or three am I in the range
there. Yeah, you're you're nailing it
and I'll show you I I first built this sheet out to try and
like give myself some target thresholds for how I wanted My
Portfolio to be constructed. And I'll tell you my goal and
and how I initially built this sheet was that I was going to
aim for something like this because I think 20% advance rate
out of round one is very attainable.
I think I have a pretty substantial edge on the field
already by round two because there's lots of people that are
doing like, oh, I took Dallas and I took the Rams or I took
you know Miami and Kansas City and it's like those guys play
each other round one, not for sure yet you know, but after we
get team, we'll know. But it's like, yeah, those guys
play each other round one bud, so you just naked a bunch of
your equity and the. The other thing is what like
even people who are drafting straight up at their their
stocking teams, they're not thinking about the round two at
all. Right, right.
And so, yeah, I I felt like this is a pretty reasonable
assessment of, like, I'm gonna be punting a little bit in round
one. I'm gonna be much better than
the field in round two and I should be able to pretty
healthily dominate the field in round three.
But even if I'm even if things don't go great for me, Like,
when you when you kind of breakdown the math like this,
you'll see why. Like, and I apologize.
If when I explain this stuff, like, if I'm going over the same
stuff over and over to people in the Discord, like, if I come
across as a little frustrated, it's because I've spent so much
time on this that, like, I know what the right answer is.
And so when I'm like explaining it, it's easy.
It's just human nature to get frustrated on something where
like, you know the right answer and someone's like, but it's not
that you're like, no, dude. Like, it's this and it's this
for like 20 different reasons. Like it's not just this expected
value calculation I'm showing you here.
It's like all this other stuff that I've looked into as well.
But anyway, I I wanted to share this 'cause I think that this
format is, you know, probably the very largest edge that we
have in in these games. And so, like if you spend the
time to, you know, put in some effort and learn how to play the
format optimally, I bet you still got a solid 2 years, three
years before. The format is like much sharper
and harder to beat. I think it'll get progressively
sharper year over year because idiots like me are telling
everyone what to do and ruining the edge.
But, like, dude, when you think of the overall reach that, you
know, content like this has compared to the field, like the
field's still gonna be bad for a couple years.
So I if you like, if you like playing basketball and drafting
teams and you want it to be a profitable venture, like, I'll
tell you I went extremely high risk, extremely high risk last
season and had zero KC Philly matchups.
Like almost. I think I might have had a
couple in My Portfolio that I built but next to zero and I
still profited. Like, it's just like I I made
teams to the finals, so I profited, you know?
I know we we we sort of covered that It's not a it's not a
player take contest but I think it it is still interest it's
it's I guess it's interesting to me that even over the last four
games we sort of called it when David Montgomery was coming back
from injury that Jameer Gibbs has played well enough to still
be the starter and it's it's sort of nuts to me that he is
still the starter and they're sort of treated like 1A1B in
drafts and and and they sort of are a little bit but at the same
time they're also sort of not like if if we're looking at if
we're looking at this data and and and Jameer Gibbs is on the
field 60% of the time like similar amount of time as
Javante and and and James Conner like and that to me that's like
you know maybe maybe I I I need to I I my before I I looked at
this chart my my gut feeling was like OK I want to play a good
bit of David Montgomery just because like I I feel like
variance is going to return him back in my favor but Gibbs is a
starter. Yeah, I one thing I want to look
at, would you mind going to the backup chart so we can see David
Montgomery? The thing that I'm looking at
here is I want to look at their pass blocking snaps for each of
them. And so, yeah, so here if you
look at now the the bar looks smaller cause Montgomery's out
there for less. But I'm I'm curious as to.
Just under 40% is his productive.
And Gibbs Gibbs is somewhere. Oh, OK, you're right.
Gibbs is somewhere out there like his his like fantasy
productive. So Russia's plus roots is 50%
and his his his actual total rushes is 20 and then Montgomery
is a little over 20. So yeah, you're right.
You're right. They're they're close.
But I do. I agree with you that, like
Gibbs is the one you wanna own in these fantasy right?
Given. That they're so close in price.
The the spot that I would say you want Montgomery is when
you're playing Lions to the Super Bowl, because then you're
getting some positive game scripts in there and you know
that Montgomery is the guy they like to salt the game away with.
Like that's their big power. Establish the run type back
where Dan Campbell wants to bite kneecaps off and run it down
their throat so we we can go back to the starter chart now
and then. Also, if you wanted to share our
smiling faces with the audience, I'm sure they're missing them
here. Oh, oh, we are hitting.
I'm, I'm, I'm just a I'm a a stream yard amateur.
And that's that's OK. But I I was.
On that out. I was spending all that off
camera time picking my nose and doing things like that, so that
was great. But yeah, as far as other backs
that I think are interesting, you know, as we head into the
playoff contest type season, if the Colts make Jonathan Taylor's
kind of interesting, you know, in playoff basketball, he'll be
a last round guy. Still, you know, maybe ninth
round, but you'll you'll get them for free.
And the thing that I really like about this, the AFC, is you can
end up with either the Colts or the Texans playing the Bills.
And I know that the Bills have been hotter lately.
You know they've had, they've kicked the shit out of the
Cowboys. They beat the Chiefs like you
know they're they're running hot.
They barely beat the Easton stick LED Chargers though, like
I'm. You're not a jerk or not.
No, I'm not as convinced as everyone else that the like
tagline that you'll hear around the Bills is they might not have
the best playoff probability, but we know they can make a run
if they get in there. And to that I'm like really?
Do we know that they can make a run like and they?
Could I mean to be fair, their conference championship odds are
27% which is that that's pretty high.
Oh yeah, no, for for sure. They they absolutely, like all
of the odds say that they can make a run.
They're basically The thing is in the AFC it's like there's the
Ravens and then it's like a four horse race.
It's like the Browns, the Bills, the Chiefs and the Dolphins are
all close enough that it's like it's pick your winner you know.
And so for me I kind of like the Bills as a potential upset spot.
I don't think that the. I really don't think the Colts
have the ability to upset them. Like, I want to put a little
respect on the Bill's name there, but like you're telling
me that if the Texans go into Buffalo and CJ Stroud, you know,
top five quarterback in the league now better than Josh
Allen, that's just in there to tilt Liam.
But CCJ Stroud goes into Buffalo.
You don't think they have like a snowball's chance And hell of an
upset, 'cause I that's a spot that I kind of like.
Yeah, yeah. And the Colts upset them last
year, didn't they, In in regular season I I remember it was a
week where John and Taylor was like $10,000 on.
Or was that the year before? Yeah, it was the.
Sorry. It's got to be the year.
Before. It was the year before, and it
was the one where the Colts weren't actually that good and
and the Bills were, were like they they had their they had
their championship squad together, and the Colts upset
them just because they couldn't. They couldn't stop JT.
Yeah. And I I could definitely see you
you know I I just think all of the really this is more like a
broad AFC thing rather than I'm not just trying to pick on the
bills. I just think every team in the
AFC outside the Ravens really have quite a few warts on them
right Like and and so I think that for me the way that I play
the AFC is especially now all the playoff like seeding is
still a little ambiguous is that the upsets will be more likely
to come on the AFC side than they would be to come on the NFC
side. So then I'm willing you know
like for example you could very reasonably have a six and seven
team both win on the AFC because that's you know Dolphins or
Bills are going to be the six and then the seven is going to
be you know Houston or Indy most likely maybe Pittsburgh and some
outcomes in which case like good luck on getting an upset.
But you know it it it's to me it's not that outside the realm
of possibility to say Dolphins upset the Chiefs.
Texans upset the Bills. And all of a sudden you're
looking at like, OK, I actually could have taken the, you know,
the six seed Dolphins and planned on them not running into
the Ravens in round two because I played it like the Texans were
going to upset the Bills. So I'm willing to do that on the
NFC more than I'm willing to do it or willing to do that on the
AFC more than I'm willing to do it on the NFC.
Now, it's not to say that the Cowboys are some unbeatable
force, like it would be the most Cowboys thing of all time for
them to lose at home in embarrassing fashion in week one
of the play offs. But I think that that's way more
likely if they run into the Rams who would need to win this
weekend and and maintain their seating versus the Packers or or
win this weekend and get the the seating versus the Packers, who
you know, if the Packers beat the Bears and the Rams lose,
then now the Packers move up to the sixth seed and the Rams are
down to the seventh seed and face the Cowboys.
So that's just one thing where I'm considering where I'm like
Cowboys probably don't get upset by the Packers, but like getting
upset by the Rams is definitely in the range of outcomes.
So I think another way to mix Rams in, like if you're like me
and you're kind of underweight Rams 'cause you're waiting for
playoff odds to consolidate. A good way to do it is when you
fade Cowboys you could do some Rams you know because I think
they're they're probably someone in the in the leg up.
Discord is pointing out that right now the probability if you
pull up your playoff odd sheet, it's got, oh, actually I don't
think that it's got the the seating.
Oh yeah it does it. It has it has Rams right now
it's 91% to maintain their seed. But I believe that Spike Week
ran their simulations for that with the scores and odds that
they they source from scores and odds prior to all of the news of
the 49ers and Rams resting players.
And so they didn't have, you know, the new lines that are
considering the fact that it's now Carson Wentz starting at
quarterback versus Sam Darnold and you know the the Island of
Misfit Toys playing in that game.
So I do believe that those odds probably move a little bit down
from Rams being 91% to maintain that seed.
So that's just some some food for thought there.
So we can So this spread right now is 3 1/2 -, 3 1/2 49ers.
Yeah. And I'll, I'll pull up what I
was, what I was seeing. Here so they open as 4 1/2 and I
think. So, so this this user in the leg
up, Discord shared. I want to say that this was from
Circa. He shared that if you parlayed
49ers money line and Packers money line, which is what you
would what you would need to have happen, right for the
seating to change, that's plus 145 S happens like 40% of the
time according to the odds currently on Circa.
So I would just say you know that that 91% probability for
the Rams to face Detroit here is probably closer to like 60%.
The other thing is I think that. And so where is it?
Tell me if I need to switch off this.
No, no, this is publicly available.
Yep. Yep.
So 91 and 9. So yeah, they they actually,
they're giving them 0% chance to be anything but the the six or
seven seed. 'Cause that's that's how it
would play out. They can't be anything other
because of the tiebreakers. I believe that Green Bay holds
tiebreaker over the Rams and holds tiebreaker over New
Orleans. So then what?
So, so then the rounds could feasibly be the seven seed,
yeah? Yeah, very, very feasibly this
this user the the plus 145 implying about 40% implied odds
of that. For me that's probably a little
high because I think that that's assuming they've got the 49ers
at like -200 and that's like for for money line, which to me
doesn't seem right in a game of backups.
I think you're probably much closer to.
OK, gotcha. And so for for me, the way I've
kind of been drafting around it is like sure it's not 91%
anymore, but it's also not as bad as 60%.
You're probably somewhere in like the 70 to 80% range that LA
holds on to that six seed because you're also, you know,
it's not like Green Bay's been a powerhouse they they still got
to beat the bears, you know. So anyway that's that's
important for people to note especially if you're using our
tool over on leg up and you see that 91%.
I just want you to know like hey, the way you know where
we're sourcing those odds from. I think ran that earlier this
week before all this news and they'll probably rerun it.
So that should get updated. But like if you were drafting
right now while you're listening to this and it's still 91%, just
be willing to IKB it a little bit and have a little bit more
uncertainty there with how. You're doing they've they've
changed it to 90%. OK.
Yeah. So I I would assume just my
understanding of the way that their simulations are pulling
data, that the scores and odds data that they're grabbing from
that is not not current with the money lines, but I bet you, I
bet you it'll probably be updated like tomorrow or
something so. That that makes sense.
I'm sad. Thanks for joining us, Hope.
Yeah, happy to see Hope in the chat delivering all these
fantastic playoff contest tests. Also shout out to Hope for like
one of the best quality of life changes I've seen on Underdog of
showing the advance rate structure on the little
tournament card when you open up a tournament now.
Like if you open up the Mitten 3 it says one of six advanced to
round two which so nice to not have to click into the rules and
read through like OK what is it to advance each round?
So yeah, yeah, that that is a that's a big, big change.
Good. Good stuff.
Hope. Yeah.
Super happy underdog. Hiring Hope and Numi was like
one of the things that gave me the largest boost of confidence
in the platform. Honestly, it's like, all right,
I I know that Hope and Numi know, like, what would the
player experience. Yeah.
So that that was cool. Thank you Hope.
And so is there any, what are we missing here with the Andre
Swift down here at just over just just a title under 50% snap
share? You may want to pull up the
chart while we talk about it. Oh, Oh yeah, yeah, you're right.
You're fine. We've been we've been bouncing
around. I'm, I'm like giving you
difficult hosting duty here. So I just.
I just suck. So Swift had a little bit of,
you know, he had some injury stuff.
I want to say a couple weeks ago you got a higher Kenneth
Gainwell game, didn't we or Gainwell got more of the snaps
and you can, you can actually see that on Gainwell here.
He's like now slightly above 40% and so I think that's part of
it. But man, the like, if we want to
kind of get into the the knowing ball film grinder stuff, I think
that the lion's concerns around DeAndre Swift of like he's never
healthy, he's not available might be more true than I gave
them credit for. Where I just thought the Lions
are a boomer org and they are making these dumb, like football
guy type decisions where they're ignoring the talent of this
player because he had some bad injury luck.
But as Swift's efficiency has kind of waned and his
explosiveness has waned and you know we're even, we're seeing
his snaps and usage go down here.
It seems like there might have been something to what the Lions
were kind of implying about Swift, where, yeah, this guy
just can't really carry like a full workload in the NFL and
still be the best version of himself.
It's not like I think he's a great player.
Like he's a awesome running back.
He's super electric and explosive when he's when he's
himself. But he hasn't looked like
himself in these last few weeks, so who knows It maybe it's a
thing where he's getting better from it, Maybe.
But, you know, we're at the end of a pretty long grind of a
season for these guys. So right, the the fresh legs
thing is kind of a meme, but there's also definitely some
truth to it, you know? So I think that might be what
we're seeing with Swift. And he's a guy.
It's definitely concerned given given Swift's price and and then
he's going alongside some like start, definitely starting
running backs. I'll say he falls a ton.
Now I I won't be surprised. The thing about the underdog ADP
updating is it is rather slow and it's got a lot of the
historical components. Yeah, that's fair.
He's he's kind of anchored where he was like it took a long time
for Jarek McKinnon to drop down to becoming like nearly
undrafted after he went on IR. So I would say by the time the
contest closes, you'll see Swift in a more appropriate range, and
I bet you that he he lands somewhere right below Gus
Edwards would be my guess. Yeah I that that makes sense
that makes sense for sure. I I I think we've we've sort of
covered everyone on this chart that's.
Yeah, let's let's get to the the efficiency charts 'cause there's
a few other takeaways we can have here.
Number one is that everyone who was drafting Bruce Hall was the
most fucking right you could possibly be because this is the
best player in the NFL. Like, this guy is so good.
You know, there's one other running back that's close to
Breece Hall, and his name's Christian McCaffrey, but Breece
Hall is that dude. I cannot.
I'm going to ruin the price. Right now.
It's Breece Hall, 101 for me next season.
If you're not on board, you know I'll see you when I got my 100%.
But no, I I needed to victory lap Breece Hall once more.
And the fact that he was like a guy that you kind of needed in
the playoffs felt pretty good, too.
Right. Wish I could have won some more
money with him. That would have been even
cooler. But you know what's better than
waiting money? Draco is being right.
So that was fun. But you know, I.
I had the same same experience and I I think that is
interesting though, and you're honestly Breeze Hall over CMC
next year. I don't think I'll need to be.
You know like, no, no, you won't.
Market will force me to be so No I I won't be.
But if you're if you're asking me legitimately like if you're
saying be 100% honest to me you know gun to your head you have
to tell the truth. Who do you think is the better
player at playing running back in the NFLI bet you dollars to
Donuts you put Bruce Hall in the 49ers offense.
He's 200 scrimmage yards every single day like, and it's no
doubt you know like that's a that guy's a monster CM CS and
it's not to take anything away from CMC.
That guy's what you know generational talent.
Immediate Hall of Famer. You know like absolute all time
GOAT like up there with Ladainian Tomlinson.
You know, Marshall Faulk like level of incredible running
back. Could it be then CMC 101, Breeze
Hall 102? I don't think it'll go that way.
I think you got a lot of vividness from some of these
wide receivers, you know, going off where like, I think you're
going to get, you know, CD Lamb and I don't, I don't think
you're going to be able to get Justin Jefferson out of the top.
No, you won't. You won't.
You're right. So I I think you got CD.
Lamb is like made himself a place in the top five.
With the way that he finished this season, which is a huge
drummer to me, I was like, God, can you just dud Week 17 so I
can have you at affordable prices next season.
But yeah, I think if we're, if we're looking next season, it's
probably CMC 101 probably like I I think what we'll have this
next year though is less of a 'cause this year it felt really
like it's always Jefferson 101, it's always Chase 102 and it's
almost always CMC 103, right. I think we'll have a lot more
variability in the guys that are in that first tier like.
But I I think that top six is going to be something like CMC,
Justin Jefferson, CD Lamb. You still probably get Jamar
Chase up there. And then, in my opinion, you
probably should have Garrett Wilson in there too if if The
Jets are looking like they'll have a quarterback because of
how. But I I keep shout out shout out
with with no quarterback, yeah, I I think there's a good chance
that this could be a year where like like the 22 season where if
you go 101 through 106, you feel so good about your first.
Pick and that type tyree still has to be in there, you know.
But 107 or later, I I think people might feel pretty like
they they've lost out because that top six is so good.
I I agree that the that early tier now the fun the fun part is
gonna be you know that back half of the first round I bet.
I mean just like we saw this year, that's where like.
All the That's where the money was made.
Came from, yeah, that's that's where the money was.
And I to me, that kind of feels like that's gonna be the case
again, because it's when you have a tier of players that
everyone's so confident it should be priced above them like
they're usually right. The market's pretty good at
that. And then every next tier that
you go down, like the uncertainty increases.
And when you get uncertainty surrounding pricing players that
are still really, really good fantasy assets, getting the
correct ones of that bunch can be the thing where it's like,
yeah, I just want all the money, 'cause I went CD Lamb, Alman,
raw, you know, right. But to to take it back to stuff
that can be useful to people maybe in FFPC contest or playoff
best ball. We do see some guys that are in
this elite category. I got an interesting one for
you. Packers make the playoff, let's
say. What are we doing with Aaron
Jones here? Who's in this 20 expected
fantasy points category? And that is interesting.
And he sort of pops as the OK you you've stacked a bunch of
you've stacked a bunch of Ravens you're worried about you're
you're having enough players to advance out of round one and
Aaron Aaron Jones is free there and that that that that feels
like the appropriate thing where I I don't feel like I don't feel
any confident I need confidence that the Packers make a run in
the playoffs and but like comb comb the playoffs if they're in
the round one any of the let's rest Aaron Jones because he's
old or whatever that that goes out the window it's like we we
we really need to win this game you're you're getting a lot of
snaps you're playing. I've got AII kind of want to
look at Aaron Jones through the lens of the FFPC Playoff
challenge, 'cause I I know that you have some really good
insights there as well. So let's just say that it ends
up being let's do Packers and we'll, we'll say it stays
Packers. Cowboys like it is right now,
right? So it's Packers, Cowboys, What
are you, How are you playing the Packers?
Are you full fade? Are you soft fade or would you
do? I mean, what what other options
do you think are viable? Here so and OK so we're shifting
to the FFPC and playoff tournament and and and for
contacts you have to pick you have to play 14 players and two
of them are kickers or say one of them is a kicker one of them
is a defence so and they're considered soft fade and then
two teams you have to select and that you're you you you you are
not picking a player from and and generally speaking the soft
fade and hard fade they're the ones that you're picking not to
advance on to the second round and so assuming that the Packers
play the Cowboys and and and damn you for making me say this
and the Cowboys would be pretty heavy favorites over the Packers
and so it would be extremely extremely contrarian to pick a
Packer to pick a Packer's skilled position player to in in
in this contest because then almost almost by design you are
you're you're almost forced to at least soft fade.
The Cowboys where you're you're taking their kicker or something
like that just with how the bracket is set up just how you
you just have to make those choices and and I mean if you
want to go down narrative street where the the Cowboys are are
sort of perennial disappointments and and and this
year will be no different then then you do something you you
probably do something like Aaron Jones or if he's back for the
playoffs in time Jayden Reid and and and and with the Packers if
you are picking a skilled position player you don't have
to go down the the depth chart at all you're going to be so
contrarian picking a skilled position player for them and
that you you're you're you're you you you can pick you can
pick their best players. Yeah, I think the the reason
that it was interesting to me and I wanted your opinion on it
was I thought of that as one of the because because like you
said in this FFPC playoff contest, getting weird or like
finding leverage doesn't have to come from like how you would
typically think about it. In ADFS contest where you're
playing heart throws. You're playing like the best
player just on a team that's unlikely to win or you're
playing the second best player on a team.
And so for example, the Cowboys will probably like people that
play the Cowboys in this tournament, the vast majority
are gonna play them through CD Lamb.
You're gonna have like 8090% ownership on CD Lamb.
And so by soft or hard fading the Cowboys and playing someone
like Aaron Jones or Jaden Reed, that affords you the luxury of
playing all chalk everywhere else, right.
Like you can jam the Lamar Jackson.
You play the best team, play the best plays.
And the thing that's attractive about that is you really only
have to get that one contrarian thing right.
And then if everything else goes, you know, according to the
probabilities, you win all the money.
And so those are really interesting plays in that
contest. And so with Aaron Jones kind of
popping on this chart, he felt like he fit in the discussion
for that. Right.
And I think you tell me if you disagree with me.
I think in the context of that tournament, it's not like you're
you're you, you have three teams on 10/2 of them are Aaron Jones
team. It's like you have 20 teams and
one of them is an Aaron Jones team.
Yeah, yeah. And then you're doing all the
best plays everywhere else. Yes.
Yeah, I I've definitely thought about that as like give me one I
prior to making these charts, I was like, God, I love Jayden
Reid. Like, it'd be so fun to play a
Jayden Reid team in in the FFPC Challenge and then now seeing
Aaron Jones with the Jane Reed injury, it's like maybe I'll
just play it through Aaron Jones, but like to be perfectly
transparent. I don't even know if I'll, I'll
get there. Like I don't know if I'll have
the stones to do. Right that that is such a
contrarian play and but it's it you you can make you can make a
great team that that has like those very pussy V with Aaron
Jones. Right, right.
Anyway, yeah, I thought he was interesting on this chart.
There wasn't. We already covered David
Montgomery a little bit. You know what?
I think we do have both Justice Hill and Gus Edwards on this
chart, though, who are now kind of they're, you know, two ships
passing in the night. Here we see Justice Hill's
expected fantasy points increasing from where he had
been and Gus Edwards is starting to come down a little bit.
Part of this is just variance and Gus Edwards not getting goal
line touches right that when Gus Edwards gets a goal line touch
like he, you know everybody remembers Gus Edwards King
vulture for a couple weeks or he's like getting 2 rushing
touchdowns, 3 rushing touchdowns.
Like when that's happening his rushing expected fantasy points
shoots way up. He just has been running a
little cold on touchdowns. So we're we're almost too we're
not there yet but we're getting closer to a Gus Edwards Justice
Hill flipping in the ADP in playoff best ball.
And so you know right now Gus Edwards goes, you know probably
in like the late 20s, early 30s most of the time.
But he's sliding more because Justice Hill just had a really
big game and people have recency bias.
So I'm I'm curious you know it's gotten harder for me to be able
to fit both of them on a A-Team together just with the way that
the AD PS have shaken out some of my the stronger round one
active running backs that you have are harder to get in these
Ravens type builds that you'd want to have.
I I think Kyron is your best example and it it can be hard to
get Kyron Justice and Gus Edwards along with some of the
other pieces that you'd really want to have there.
So I guess I'm just wondering how would you be prioritizing
these running backs? Do you have a strong preference
one towards the other? Are you kind of treating them
as, I just need one of these two guys, so I'll wait until one's
off the board and I'll take the other at the cheaper price.
What do you think you should be doing regarding playing Ravens
running back in I I think most of the time I guess you you
could be mixing them in and builds where you don't have
Lamar, where you're still playing Ravens to the Super
Bowl. But how do you think it's best
to play these guys? And I I mean the price isn't
even close, right? They're they're they're sort of
pretty close to each other in terms of usage and just well
maybe not that close I guess what Justice Hills there at 12
and Ghost Edwards at 15 and I I think that the the price of
Justice still being that much cheaper especially especially
with goes Edward when you're playing at Baltimore stock and
let's say you've started Lamar you've got say Flowers and now
you need to use a a a good chunk of the middle rounds to build
out like a a sort of like secondary team that's going to
help you through round one. And I think that and and and
like I said Gus Edwards is right in the middle of that that range
where Justice Hill is right at the end when when you're putting
tack on players to stacks. I think I I do think that
Justice Hill is a much better play in in that context.
But at the same time it it it's it's a split backfield and so
you you what you call it you you probably don't want to get too
confident one way or another. You you you you do need to
figure out ways to play. Yeah Gus.
Gus Edwards teams as well, but definitely prefer the Justice
Hillside. Yeah, I I agree with you.
The way I've been playing it is I just let Gus Edwards fall and
if he free falls far enough, right?
I got all the stuff I needed to get and now Gus Edwards is here
staring me in the face and there's like no opportunity
cost. The other guys that I want are
like, I'm looking at, you know, Brandon Cooks and Jake Ferguson
or David and Joku. You know, as advance rate pieces
or or like maybe, you know, the Dallas has one of my Super Bowl
sides with with the Ravens, You know, maybe I've got Dallas and
49ers or something. And I'm like, I can take any of
these guys. They're all the same.
I I just need one of these three players.
They don't really matter to me who it is.
And so now I can take Gus Edwards here at a much cheaper
price. And then whichever of these
three random dudes that comes back to me that I need to fill
my wide receiver spot, I just click them.
And so that's kind of the way I've been doing it.
I I was thinking through how I like to have Gus Edwards with
Lamar. And I I do really think I prefer
having Gus Edwards with Lamar. You know, I I would much rather
not have Edwards on a team that's say it's a 49ers build.
I'm doing 49ers, Ravens and I got Purdy and so I don't get
Lamar right. I don't want Gus Edwards on that
team and that might sound counter intuitive because you're
thinking Oh well sack if if Gus is cooking and eating all these
rushing touchdowns up that might mean less for Lamar and and
that's the exact reason why I don't want that because in that
circumstance where that is is happening right it's easier to
advance the Gus Edwards without Lamar stuff and so it's gonna be
more popular. Now granted in this instance I'm
talking about with San Francisco so it's two by teams so don't
worry about you know getting unique.
They're getting 5 to the final with two by teams is unique.
But in a in an instance where maybe it's not 49ers, your your
Cowboys and Ravens right Then I really don't want Gus Edwards
because I want to benefit from that lower advance rate effect
potentially of Lamar. Teams with Gus Edwards may be
faltering a little bit when Gus has a big week and Lamar has an
off week because I'm just trusting the fact that the rest
of my roster, my second QB with team stack with teams that you
know I have the potential to have four teams total live in
the conference championships. I'm trusting that roster
construction advantage I have on the field so that when it's
difficult to get Lamar through to the finals with Gus Edwards.
I'm one of the very few people that's able to do it.
And again it's like we're we're thinking through this this game
theory stuff where it's like does that really matter man.
And it's like, yeah, it matters a lot because then I'm in the
finals and it's me and two total teams that were able to get
Lamar, Gus Edwards through. Where on the flip side, it's
just it can be much easier to do it if you're Dak Prescott.
Gus Edwards. Because Lamar failed in a week
where Gus had three rushing touchdowns.
Right. And and so then you show up to
the finals and you're Dak Prescott.
Gus Edwards. And it's like, yeah, you and 40
other teams have Dak Prescott, Gus Edwards in the finals, which
would only be a 10% ownership rate by the way.
And like, just for reference, if you're not, you know, deep in
the streets on these, like last year there were players with
above 40% ownership in the finals.
Because the nature of this contest is ownership condenses a
lot because of the small rosters and how teams actually advance
through the real life NFL playoff gauntlet combined with
the game within a game playoff gauntlet.
Well, the base, the base ownership is 18.
Yeah. So like 40% is like a little
over 2X, which is not that big a deal.
Yeah. So anyway, that's why I care
about it that way and you know you don't have to believe me or
or buy into that being important, but God, I just hope
I shift something with the with the Lamar Gus Edwards combo and
it was really hard to advance because that'd be a fun victory
lap. But anyway, I do think that's
important. I think it's an edge that you
can get if you if you're thinking through it correctly.
So anyway, I I thought the Ravens backfield is a pretty
important one to talk about, since they're the highest
probability team to make the Super Bowl outside the 49ers
right now. Yeah, I agree for sure.
And so the CMC one-on-one, nothing to talk about there
really unless is there any any CMC combinations that you're,
you're prioritizing over others? In the Gauntlet you you
typically have your option right now at the 101 you go CMC and
then the two three turn is your choice of Chiefs or Buffalo.
Typically if you're trying to play it that way you can deviate
and do different stuff from there.
But for the most part your best looking options from that spot
are CMC plus a Buffalo stack or CMC plus a Chief Stack.
And I'll tell you, I'm preferring to play it through
the Chiefs because #1 the Chiefs have better probability, so that
sounds good, #2 Buffalo was way cheaper in the gauntlet earlier.
And so some of the specifically the 49ers and Buffalo Combos are
the ones that are some of the most nutted.
Like when I look back at my old teams and I see like, Oh my
gosh, I got Josh Allen, Stefan Diggs, James Cook, Gabe Davis.
And then I also got CMC, Brock Purdy, Debo, Samuel, like see in
the finals for all the money. If it's Bills, 49ers, you know
right, those are out there, not like a million of them.
And it's also it's still by week team with the 49ers and people
did have to draft those early in the life cycle of contests when
information was, you know it was.
More they They could have also put in some shitty 70 that
actually didn't make it. Yeah, maybe they maybe have
Seahawks stacks. Bijon Robinson, you know, or
something like that to help get their CMC through Week 1.
So I know I did that one time. God bless that CMC team.
Sweet Angel. But anyway, I'm not really
wanting to do the Bills 49ers version because it's like that's
a worse version. It's not saying you can't draft
CMC plus bills. You can still do that.
But you just want to be thoughtful about how you're
doing it. Maybe taking a a later leverage
piece that when you do show up in the Super Bowl and face all
those super teams, you're like, it actually doesn't matter that
you have all those crazy pieces. Because I have very low Deontay
Hardy, who ended up being the guy you needed in the Super
Bowl. Or I have, you know, playoff
Lenny Leonard Fournette who actually got 2 receiving
touchdowns in the Super Bowl or whatever it is that you do
there. But yeah, CMC with the Chiefs, I
got, I'm I'm like, mad that I was in a room that let this
happen. And so like, I am.
I'm 1/5 guilty for this. But we were in a big mitten
team, so not the gauntlet, thankfully, but we were in a big
mitten. And the guy in the one hole gets
CMC proceeds to get the literal entire Chief stack.
He gets Travis, Kelsey, Pat Mahomes, Rashi Rice, Isaiah
Pacheco, all the way down with CMC.
It's like feels like we probably fucked up somewhere in this
world letting this guy get that. But yeah so I've I've seen
someone get it. I've been able to get it myself
a few times in the gauntlet and then I've been able to get it
like -1 premium piece a couple times too.
I will tell you I'm gonna here here's all the alpha.
Here it is. Write it down.
The secret tech you wanna You wanna get your full chief stack
through. It's not Mahomes Kelsey at the
at the 2-3. Turn with CMC, it's Pacheco and
Rice and the reason for that, and I believe me, I've tested
all the different versions and Pacheco and Rice is the one that
gives you the best chance of letting the room get it back to
you. At first I thought, man, it's
got to be Rice, Kelsey, because no one's going to take naked
mahomes with no pass catcher or Mahomes Pacheco, No one's going
to do that. I was wrong.
People will do that. And so when you take Pacheco,
who has gotten steam lately because he had a big game, and
you take Rice, who has gotten Steam, and then you leave yucky,
dusty Kelsey on the board with Mahomes, with only that as the
option, That's where people let it fall.
So I've had success doing it that way.
I would recommend if you're trying to get the CMC plus the
Full Monty on the Chiefs, you you try it with the Pacheco Rice
double tap and the beautiful thing about that is when that
fails, when it comes back and gets blown up and you don't get
Mahomes Kelsey, guess what you hit at the 4-5.
It's the hard E break into the Browns baby.
It's just 4 Browns right in a row and now you're Browns,
49ers, Super Bowl and no one can stop you.
So yeah, that's that's a pretty great one in my opinion, because
when shit goes bad for you, you still end up with a very viable
Super Bowl combo with a very strong team around advancing out
of round one. It's like, that's probably like,
that's the secret tech right now.
So there you go, there's all the alpha.
So and this is I'm not sure if I've blown something else up by
doing this and one thing that I have seen is cheap Mahomes and
Kelsey where I don't get Rice and Chaco.
I've done that cheap Mahomes and and Kelsey and then tacked on
CEH and one of the random pass catchers that that like that
felt like fine to do. Obviously that's not, that's not
as good as just getting the full monthly premium, but that felt
fine, right, that that that wasn't like.
Yeah, no, it's not a it's not that taking Mahomes Kelsey is a
donkey thing to do after Rice Pacheco off the board.
It depends on the rest of your build with like what's gonna be
available. The room is donkeys, so they
won't do that. Yeah, yeah.
But there are, yeah. It's just you can you can trust
that it's you just want to leave the grossest two players on the
board in the room's perception. Even though it shouldn't be like
the Mahomes, Kelsey Sack is gross.
That's just what the market in general feels like right now and
it but the the difficult thing is this is a little bit more art
than science. It's different in every room.
Like you might be in a room where someone's like the biggest
Travis Kelsey fan of all time because they love Taylor Swift
and they're like, Kelsey's gonna be back for maybe.
Taylor Swift is in your dropped room an underdog?
Exactly. Yeah.
You ever think about that? So anyway, I got it.
I would love if we got confirmation that Tay Tay is
just out here blasting off a big Tay.
Tay's already maxed the big mitten.
She's she's asking hope and New me to come out with an even
higher stakes contest. She was like, where's the
$10,000? Yeah.
Where's where's this Nosebleed stuff?
Underdog. Come on.
But no. Anyway, I I do think that's a
Really. I think that's a lot of edge you
can get with how you're playing skimpy out of the one hole.
And the other thing I wanted to ask you is what about like a an
Amen raw Now I know this is not a this is definitely big reaches
by ADP Amen raw Gibbs. Given that, like, you know,
their conference championship odds are like pretty identical
to the Bills and and and and Chiefs if, yeah, pretty similar
to theirs and and like you're getting just as premium pieces.
My biggest problem with that is what happens to your AFC side of
the bracket when you do that? Because you so you start CMC and
then Almond Raw and Gibbs, right?
And so you're at the 4-5 turn. Your highest probability AFC
side then is either, you know, the Chiefs total dart throw
guys, which is like that's not great.
You're looking at, you know, maybe dolphin stragglers.
You you got like a waddle a Chan there, you know?
You're playing a four or five seed, or you're or or you're or.
You're playing Ravens. You're playing Ravens dart
throws. But then what you end up doing
is you're saying I'm sacrificing CMCMC dies right?
So that my Lions can live, which I don't think is it's not the
worst right, Like, but it's also like, God, you got CMC Like
don't you wanna play towards the Super Bowl.
Yeah, but I no, I I don't think it's terrible.
I just think you're your viable options in the game tree are
limited and it for me it's mostly limited into Ravens.
So then your Detroit, San Francisco Ravens.
And then you're you're also boxed for like advancing in
round one. So like the Mitten.
The Mitten 3 for example. You must take the the Detroit
Lions quarterback. Yes.
Because you you you can't you probably well you can't take
Purdue. You can't take Lamar and so then
you're you're you're almost the only viable Super Bowl option
for you is where CMC is not available and so you lost your
first round pick and you might be playing against somebody who
I don't I don't you know I I'm wondering there there there's
not a first round pick there. Yeah.
Well you'd be playing against somebody who has the mirror in
the first round. Yeah.
Your your pigeonholed. What your pigeonholed into there
is your pigeonholed into either playing it through Lions to the
Super Bowl or playing it through Browns or one of the the even
lower the options to Super Bowl which I got a lot of Browns to
the Super Bowl. I hate to tell you.
You know like it's not. I'm not terribly proud of it but
the market wasn't efficient on it so I hammered it right.
But and and I don't think that's so bad but I usually do stuff
like that when I get forced into it and I don't really want to.
Like I think if you're if you're building a big portfolio like
you're maxing a bunch of stuff like for sure that sound that
sounds like a sick build to me. I'm like yeah, I I see that
being really cool. I want to do that a couple
times, but like for the the average person who might be only
throwing like 10 or 20 bullets in there, that's one where I'm
like just why? Why don't instead you just do
you know what we talked about early and play it CMC through
the Chiefs and you know, get yourself a big advantage on the
earlier drafters in the contest. So, Yep, Yep, Yep.
Makes sense. And I I think we're OK to move
on from from this chart, right? Yeah, yeah.
Let's hit hit tight ends here. So and tight end a little
different in in the playoff context but more I I I honestly
think tight end is a more interesting conversation in in
FFPC playoff than it is an underdog.
Because underdog, like they get bunching with the wide receivers
and it's like you're just taking the guy off like the stack that
you're you're building, right? Yeah, yeah, absolutely.
Like And then I wonder like the and and and then what.
What gets interesting to me about the playoff tournament
stuff is that some of these tight ends can be stud killers
in the way that TJ Hawkinson was like he he him racking up a
gazillion targets in that one playoff game last year just like
new Justin Jefferson. Now some of that was because
Justin Jefferson was like double covered every play and but that
that was like the that was the the contrarian play that that
end up being very successful. Like I wonder could could George
Kittle be a contrarian play? Probably not, because you're
expecting the 49ers to play at least two games.
Yeah, George Kittle feels like a little bit of a bridge too far
for me there. But like Sam Laporta as a, you
know, I I don't know how owned he'll be relative to like,
Gibbs, Gibbs and a Monra both feel like pretty comfy clicks
for me though. Like I would say one of those
two falls in the Boomer Opto rather than Laporta and so.
Yeah, yeah, for sure. Sam Laporta is not in the Boomer
opto. Now here's here's a question.
I'm like, I'm just on my way to mushing this play.
This is like my favorite play two days ago, and I'm just gonna
mush the fuck out of it here. So David and Joku is like one of
the best clicks in this contest, right?
Because you're gonna have the Boomer opto has to be either
between Amari Cooper or Brown's DST, right?
Like what those those are like the boomer opto already has
shirts made for both of those picks.
You know So it's like how squeezed does Njoku get and
isn't Njoku like literally he's he's TJ Hawkinson but cooler.
You know he's like cool TJ Hawkinson now because he's just
a target monster from Joe Flacco and it's like in in FFPC which
is hide in premium people forget like if David and Joku does one
of those 14 target games like you he you will require David
and Joku to win any money and. You know the Browns definitely
seem live to win their first round match up.
You know like the the Browns seem live to like if I told you
like just picture this in your mind's eye.
The Browns have upset the Ravens in the conference championship
game and the Browns are going to the Super Bowl.
And Joe Flacco has just delivered the dagger to, you
know, Baltimore. And he goes on to one more Super
Bowl, but without his, his old team.
Like, is that really that out there?
You know, like, is that really that crazy?
We've seen crazier things. Like, yeah, we've seen like we
the the the Giants won those Super Bowls with Eli Manning.
Like there's like there's been some pretty crazy results.
Like it happens. And Speaking of tight ends in
that game and I wonder. I wonder how far up there Evan
Ingram gets in. He's, He's.
Boomeropto 100%. Right.
Over, over. ETN.
Yeah, because remember what Ingram did last year in the same
same spot? They're like underdog to the
Chargers. He he smashes pretty good and
you're in the same spot. And I I gotta believe, you know,
Pat, I, I, I was talking through some of these with Pat and he he
thought Ingram was Boomer Optum. I said really like we we really
think they'll get there. And it's like Oh yeah.
Like you know the the FFPC crowd are many things.
But like what they're not is guys that aren't like paying
attention to the news. You know like they're definitely
plugged in. Like they they might think about
things a little differently than yeah, yeah, of course.
But like, they're aware that Evan Ingram has been like this,
you know, short A dot target hound.
Especially in matchups where you know the Jags are getting
pressured, you know where they're trying to get the ball
out. OK, yeah, got you.
Where they're playing, they're playing that idea that they know
how the game is going to go and they will have to operate.
True, true. Evan Ingram.
Yeah. And I I think too with Christian
Kirk coming back, it actually funnels more ownership to Evan
Ingram because it makes all the Jags pass catchers a little
murkier. And so then when you're like
they're all the same, let me just take the guy that gets 1.5
points for reception, right? And so that's I do think Evan
Ingram and then. People are gonna be nervous
about Travis Etienne because of how up and down he is.
Yeah, 100%. So yeah, that that honestly
makes me think that and the Jaguars might be a pretty good,
harder, soft fade. Oh yeah, Jags, Jags seem very,
very nice as a as a fade there. And then I, I already talked
about this, you know, more again is a systemic thing for the AFC.
Like, think about the Bills. Like, who are you excited to
click on the Bills for this contest?
Like, you're just begrudgingly clicking Dicks.
Yeah. And the fantasy points have just
been through, like, it's all Josh Allen, right?
I mean, like sometimes you get the James Cook game out there,
but it's like, what if instead I just soft or hard fade the bills
and I take Nico Collins? You know, like, that feels
pretty good to me. Like that's you're getting like
probably you know 1% combinatorial ownership on
Bill's softer hard fade plus Nico Collins.
And so it's like that's that's almost the same thing.
This is the crazy part about this contest that's almost the
same thing as doing like Jaden Reed Cowboy Soft fade.
But the probability of the Bills getting upset is way higher than
the probability of the Cowboys getting.
And so it's just like and and the players project like your
two V2 is like way more favorable to do it the Nico
Collins way, right. So it's just like rather than
pick some random bill and you're like I hope it's 2021 and
they're good at. Fantasy again, you know, Right.
Yeah, yeah, I I think that makes sense.
That definitely makes sense. Where like they're probably like
what three 3 1/2 point favorites against the Texans in in in in
in Vegas and that corresponds to like what a 60% probability.
I'm I'm, I'm sort of making stuff up, but something like
that and and and and you you get to have like a 1% combinatorial
ownership on a 40% outcome. Yeah, it's like that's why this
game is so fun. But as a as a Bills now if I
wanted to go bullish on the Bills, do you think Kincaid?
Like, I know I've been a Kincaid hater this season, but hear me
out. Since no one's doing anything on
the Bill's offense outside of Josh Allen, why don't I just
take, why don't I follow my Evan Ingram logic of I'm just gonna
take the guy that gets 1.5 X on his receptions.
Like, do you think it's crazy to do Kincaid?
I think if you're doing Kincaid, you're you're you're still
playing at Bill's loss. Yeah, you're right.
So it's just better. It's better to do the fade then.
But I mean you're probably still getting similar ownership and
but I I feel like that that that's like almost like a you
you you're betting them to lose. Yeah, no, you're you're right.
Yeah, I think that one is. That one's smelling your own
farts a little too much. You're getting too smart here if
you're doing that one. But anyway.
And I think, I think that's. I mean, Jake Ferguson feels like
there. There's no fucking point, right?
I've I've had a couple people tell me that they think that
might be one of the sharper ways to play the Cowboys.
You're you're playing for a round two exit, not a round one
right? And you're playing that CD Lamb
gets. Goose I think you're playing for
a round one exit. If you do Jake Ferguson 'cause
that's like a it happens over one game but feels very
unlikely, extremely, even more unlikely over two games.
You don't. You don't think that if like
let's just say CD gets like pretty goose like 6 for 40 in in
the game that they lose right. They they go around to you.
He goes 6 or 40 so that's 10 points and he has a good not
great game in the 20 something points and then you get 2 decent
Jake two games or Jake Ferguson gets you know six for 60 in a
touchdown in both like. So CD scores combined 30 points,
yeah, And then Jake Ferguson scores over combined 30 points.
Yeah, he gets, he gets 18 just from the receptions and then you
get the extra 12 from the yardage, right?
And then you get the touchdowns, You're 42.
So, like, I think it's thin. I don't think you're wrong, you
know? I I think it's thin that.
Right my my good. But my my sort of point was I'm
I'm sort of expecting like CD to be like and and and I know you
guys project ownership I'm I'm better than me and I'm expecting
that to be one of the mega CD to be one of the mega smash place
where it could even be like 90 percent, 90%.
And then in actuality you're getting then you can get Dak
Prescott at maybe like sub 10 and it's like well, if you're
gonna be contrarian there like that Dak Prescott at like
somewhere between 5:00 and 10:00 that that that feels like that
feels very, very like. Now you're Now you're speaking
my language, Draco. We're talking Cowboys to the
Super Bowl. I'm here for it.
Yeah. And that and I think that that
probably is what you're talking about there, where where you're
you're playing into the conference championship
probabilities and all that sort of stuff.
And but I, I, I get the Jake Ferguson thing where, you know,
we're showing here that he's running 80% of routes.
He's 18% targets per hour run, which is solid.
Not not a it's it's solid and and can he get 10 catches over
over two games and a hundred 100 yards over two games and a
touchdown? Yes, like 100%.
He can do that. And then maybe, maybe see if
you're really batting against CD Dan, why not bet them all the
way down? Yeah, yeah.
So I do. I I honestly hadn't even got to
the Dak contrarian play. I was just like if Dak gets
their CDs just such an alpha that it's you know.
But no, I I think you're right. That would be a really
interesting way to play it. So Cowboys will probably be one
of the the interesting spots to attack here.
But yeah, you I again, like you said earlier, it's not like if
you have three teams, you're doing 2 Jake Ferguson, you know,
It's like if you have 20 teams, you if you, you know, if you get
a hair up your butt and you're feeling real, real right then
you might click Jake Ferguson one time.
Yeah, yeah. And yeah, I I agree for sure.
And and then I mean, there's there's no point next chart.
I mean, Noah Gray is the only and and he's barely drafted, and
rightfully so. Yeah, in in playoff best ball,
you can sell me a little Noah Gray.
But in FFPC, there's not. There's not a snowball's chance
in hell I'm ever clicking. Noah Gray, right?
Yeah, yeah. Just doesn't.
Doesn't compute. Hey Draco, do you remember in
like week two when I said CD Lamb is moving up and to the
right? You know why I remember 'cause
you tell me every fucking week. I mean, couldn't have been a
truer alpha performance this season, man.
Just gotta gotta clap it up for my guys.
CD Lamb. That's that's some alpha shit.
So that was great. You know, we're seeing this.
This is a pretty stable chart. Obviously we're through the
season at this point. We're seeing A.J.
Brown like slide precipitously in these playoff basketball
drafts, and he's very clearly an alpha.
And like you mentioned, the Eagles are starting to get back
on the wagon offensively and Davonta Smith has the ankle
sprain. Like to me, this feels like it's
all setting up to like, can't you see that A.J.
Brown might be the guy you need in the first round of the
playoffs? Oh yeah, didn't they?
Didn't one of the coaches say, like this week, you know,
sometimes you just have to force feed A.J.
Brown? Like that's just got what you
got to do. I had, I hadn't caught that.
But I mean that the star, the stars are aligning, you know,
like I I I think, I think it's coming.
It's coming to bury the fuck out of me with my like, almost zero.
A.J. Brown.
So. A.J.
Brown is a hard one to do because to get him without Hurts
doesn't feel great and and then you have you, you have to do the
1-2 turn thing where you're getting Hurts A.J.
Brown and you feel like a moron 'cause you're like every fucking
person is doing this. Yeah, so.
It's a hard 1 to get this. Slide.
I think what I'm gonna do for me personally is often times when I
get Lamar at like the four, 'cause I'm I'm taking Lamar like
at the four now, 'cause you kind of have to to get him.
And I want, I want to maintain my overweight Lamar position.
It it won't maintain what it's at right now of like 30%, 'cause
it's just not possible now with how high he goes.
But yeah, when I take Lamar at the four, what I had been doing
was any 49er that comes back. So it used to be that you could
almost always get Lamar Ayuk at the turn.
Yeah. So I have a lot of combos with
that and I had a lot of Lamar Devo from early in the cycle of
the contest and now I'm just doing Lamar Kittle.
But what I think I need to start doing just so that when when the
inevitable happens and A.J. Brown just buries me all the way
in week one of the playoffs. I have some Lamar A.J.
Brown teams where maybe I'm not even playing that.
It's the Eagles of the Super Bowl opponent to the Ravens.
But I'm playing it as A.J. Brown got my Lamar team out of
week one and I really needed that.
So that's note. Note to sack.
I'm doing that this week. I'm going to grab some A.J.
Brown with my Lamar. I think, though, just to play
devil's advocate, you know more about this contest than I do.
You take A.J. Brown in the in the second
round, you you're you're you're betting on the Eagles like you.
You've started a substantial bet on the Eagles, right?
I yeah, yeah, you you are. But I think that, number one,
there are times I've seen A.J. Brown slide to the third.
And so I might just like open myself up to being willing to
take that over like you know, now I'm sacrificing getting a
Tony Pollard that I normally wouldn't take in there instead.
But you know, usually I'm taking Tony Pollard as an advance rate
piece too. So yeah, like I I think that's
OK to do those early one offs within structure of like I'm
still within four teams that could conceive.
Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
You still have that with your with your Ravenstock.
If you have four of them, you you tack on A.J.
Brown. That's still a viable playoff.
Yeah and but maybe I'm doing something like you know I'm
doing Eagles and Rams then as my and so and then I might go just
with literally 5 Ravens on the other side so that I'm set for
whatever. If it is Niner's Ravens I'm
still Gucci. I got 5 Ravens live for it that
way I don't have to lean into because I've got Eagles Rams
that aren't going to be on by I can then I can have five of
those at with Stafford as quarterback.
You know or I mean shoot even when you get the really deep
hurt slide you know you can do the yeah there are times looking
back thinking about my drafts the last two days.
There are times where like A.J. Brown and Hertz are both
available at like the 3-4 turn when I had Lamar and I just
should have done that because it's like I don't think that's
going to be super available for a long time even.
Like, I think this is the window that you can get that and I
think that next week, you know this this week 18, the Eagles
probably will continue to trend up.
You know, there's nowhere to go but up.
They they ain't going down after losing to to the Cardinals.
So I think maybe they get back on track a little bit.
The price is, you know, get you know, a little more normalized
and all of a sudden I'm sitting here thinking, Gee, I wish I had
done some of that. You know, Lamar, you know, 140
Niner, A.J. Brown hurts stuff that had been
available to me, although rarely.
So anyway, I'm just thinking through that.
Yeah, makes makes sense for sure.
So yeah, I think the the sort of alphas, they all make sense.
Everybody knows who the Alphas are like everyone knows if
you're doing, if you're playing bills, you want Stefan Diggs.
And I think it's a little interesting seeing Devonta Smith
in the in the sort of like regression negative regression
portion of this chart like right next to where our our beloved
friend Adam Thielen. But he he's been sliding hard
And so I think, I think the market has more than reacted to
some worsening fundamentals and and and the injury for Devonta
Smith too. Yeah, I'm pretty low on Devonta
Smith. You know, staying consistent
with my Eagle's fade and and you know, again, I'm still scared
that fade buries me now. But I definitely, I want to play
it more through A.J. Brown than anything I at this
point. But let's go to the next chart
because there's some guys on the next one that I think are really
interesting conversations for playoff best ball and that's the
Dolphins wide receivers of Tyree Kill and Jalen Wattle.
You've got the Jalen Waddle ankle injury where he should be
good for week one of the playoffs.
I right now I'm leaning towards he plays and he is, you know,
maybe not 100%, but he's he's out there.
He's running his whole compliment.
You're not getting, you're not getting a pure zero.
And we're not that worried about round one advance, right,
either. Right, but there are times.
There's lots of times actually, where I'm ending up with Jalen
Waddle and a Dolphin's running back as two of my only 5 live
players in round one, because I'm playing for like a Baltimore
and you know, 49ers Super Bowl. And then I I find myself getting
a little queasy about the Jalen Waddle clicks.
I'm like, oh God, if he's not actually back, like am I just
nuking this thing? So I personally feel like that's
a little risky. So I kind of weigh that in and
and sometimes like tie break away from if there's another
viable path, I might do the other viable path rather than go
in and embrace that additional risk.
But like if that's your best path, you just lean into it and
you eat the risk and you're like, I know I understand what
I'm getting myself into there. There will be sometimes where
week one of the playoffs comes, Jalen Waddell's out there for a
couple snaps and then he goes into the blue medical tent
again, you know, and you're just like, well, there goes that
really cool Lebar and CMC team that I had that was fun while it
lasted. But anyway, I I do think the the
Dolphins receivers are really interesting because you're
getting Hill to slide a lot now. Like I've been getting quite a
bit of Hill and Lamb in the gauntlet and I got to tell you
that was not available earlier in the contest.
So it's like that's even though those are lower probability
teams to meet in the Super Bowl. It's like my God, man, if you
give me, if you told me because I I've had somewhere, I'm like
CD Lamb, Tyree Kill, Tony Pollard, Raheem Monster, Jalen
Waddle Devana Chan, Brandon Cooks and then whichever of the
two quarterbacks. And I'm like, I have the stone.
We show up to the Super Bowl and this team made it like we can
just cut me the check, like save the time, you know, like no
one's beating that. And so I think those types of
builds are really interesting where it's like wasn't available
earlier in the contest. It's players that have such a
strong projection relative to the other options deeper on the
team. It's like all right, the guy
that I missed out on was Rico Dowdall.
So Rico Dowdall needs to outscore 2 of Tony Paul and
Raheem Monster Devana Chan to even crack.
You know he has to make two of them for me to lose.
So it's like and and that's kind of the same thing I was talking
about for the Chiefs, you know, where like, hey, I can get all
the Chiefs and other people didn't have it like this.
You you put yourself in a position where when you do make
the finals with that, even though that happens at a lower
frequency, that those teams are the ones in the Super Bowl, you
win all the money. And so I like builds like that.
Those are those to me are are enjoyable, 'cause then it's just
like I only really had to do 2 things right.
You know, I had to get through round one and round two and
round three like damn near advances itself when you play
this contest in the optimal way. And then and then you're in the
Super Bowl with the nuts and it's like.
That's a fun sweat. You know, I I sure do enjoy
sweating the nuts. It's like we turned over the the
whole cards on the turn and it's like, oh, I have a full house
and you're drawing to a flush. Like feel pretty good about
where I'm at, you know, so. Right.
And one one thing that's sort of noteworthy here to me and I've
been a little queasy about taking Brandon Cooks and and and
this chart probably does a good explanation why where he's at.
So he's at 80 to 85% route share.
So he's running a lot of routes but he's not running all the
routes. And then his way to target part
run is just 40% and I'm pretty sure he's run a little bit hot
on touchdowns and it's like like obviously in in in Cowboys make
the Super Bowl you have Doc Prescott like you want Brandon
Cooks. But I'm I'm starting to to
wonder if like if if you don't have dack, like should you be
taking Brandon Cooks on on on a secondary cowboy sack at all?
Like it feels sort of weak. That's interesting.
I definitely see the merit to like not doing Brandon Cooks if
you don't have dack. But at that point in the draft,
the options you're looking at are are weak 11V1, me, Brandon
Cooks, David and Joku. You know, it's like they're
close one V1 me. The ones where where you win the
1V1 hard in projection are like 1V1 me, Brandon Cooks,
Pukanakua, right. And that's one where if you have
a lot of Cooks already, maybe you do start doing that even
though it's lower probability the Rams make.
But if you do end up with the Rams facing the Cowboys in round
one of the playoffs, that's probably a really sick way to
balance out that Brandon Cook stuff because now not only are
like you getting the higher projected player, but you're
also benefiting when those Dallas teams lose out.
So I think that's interesting. I probably I I probably think
the way that I'm gonna account for that is doing the Puka Cooks
1V1 on teams where it's within structure.
Yeah, And and I I do. It does make me think, like, so
why do you think the probability is that the Cowboys beat the
Rams? Like is it 65%?
I was gonna go like 6060%. Yeah.
So and are the Rams really 40%? Well, I guess the the big issue
for the Rams then, is that they have to they have, they have to
beat the 49ers. Right.
And I'm. I'm a pessimist for the, you
know, I've been hurt so many times.
Draco you gotta understand. And and the Cowboys too.
Like the one of the biggest warts on the Cowboys is lack of
offensive line depth and Tyler Smith just tore literally tore
his planter fascia. By the way one of the funniest
injury report things not funny that this man tore his planter
fascia which is extremely painful.
Like especially when you're like 300 plus pounds.
Like that sucks. I feel really bad he's on a
scooter right now. I promise you, he's on a.
Scooter, of course. But the injury report that I saw
was that his status was in question for week 18.
Are you fucking joking me? What's the question?
Like how long? How is he gonna get out of bed?
This. £300 monster man like has to put his full weight on a torn
planter fashion. Like dude, I know, I know like
real mortals that tore their planter fascia where they were
like they were scooter gang for like 6 weeks.
Like I I know these are like right and and.
They're gonna be giving them injections, but that is not.
A. But my God, man, Like that
sounds crazy to me. So that's scary to me as a
Cowboys fan. Like one of our best offensive
lineman on our strongest side of our line is weak.
Now. Like he's either majorly hobbled
or we're playing it back up and the Cowboys have show like.
You look at some of the most embarrassing losses the Cowboys
have had this season. It's like, oh, Tyrant Swift is
out. You know, like the Cowboys are
missing someone on that line and the depth is not existent.
So that's part of where my pessimism comes in.
But anyway. Just checking something here
where is Justin? Like I'm I'm looking at Quez
Watkins here at 70 to 75% and way to target or say a routes
run I should say and then like just an abysmal 20% weighted
Tegra's parent run even though he's like a deep shot guy and
like it it like I I know you've been off the you've been off the
Eagles but let's say you've got a Jalen Hurts team and you're
looking to tag on another another piece is is someone like
this like is that like and and and the fact that they're barely
drafted as well at Myers too like is Quez Watkins draftable.
I don't think Quez Watkins is draftable, but could I interest
you in Quintorius Lopez Jones, better known as Julio?
Of course, yeah. I've already taken JoJo like he
just scored two touchdowns. Yeah, it's it's fucking Cannon
that if they win that, he has to be a huge part of it.
Yeah, I know. It's it's fresh.
Likes Julio Jones, baby, as the Eagles savior in the playoffs.
There's no bigger backhanded compliment than calling an older
player fresh who hasn't played much fresh.
Likes Oh yeah, no, I wouldn't draft Klez.
I would. I would click some Julio though.
But like the other thing with the Eagles, this this is kind of
like how it parallels a little bit with the FFPC playoff
contest is the stuff that's the teams that people aren't as
excited to click in. Basketball drafts are the ones
where you don't have to get as cute on them.
Because if you show up to the finals, I mean, like, yes, the
Eagles were heavily drafted earlier, you know?
But like if you show up to the finals and you have a full Eagle
Stack and Kenneth Gainwell, you know like not, not as many
people are building full eagle stacks anymore.
They're more like 1 off pieces or things like that or many, you
know 2 two player minis. So I'm not as into doing a Quez
Watkins. The other thing is like.
There's so many viable alternatives.
And whoever your opponent is on the AFC is probably a better
alternative dark throw than Quez Watt.
Like you you take the Chiefs as the you know it's Eagle Chiefs
rematch pick any Chiefs dart throw you know you want.
You want Ravens OK great. Any Ravens dart throw like I
like over Quez Watkins you know so yeah that's if you were so if
you were the mega Eagles bowl, if you were like the Eagles are
going to the Super Bowl and I won't hear anything else then
yeah you mix some Quez Watkins in.
But I'm I'm coming from a place where it's like I have like
almost no Eagles in My Portfolio.
I don't need to start getting down to the, like, really cutesy
stuff, you know? Right I I'm just determined so
like this is sat chasing. I'm determined to make it about
the stats and the charts and this is my way of doing that.
I I think too what's really relevant is that especially with
Quez you have tree bonafide like bonafide like alpha target
errors in in like A.J. Brown, the Vonda Smith and Can't
believe What's the Dallas not? I thought you're gonna go,
Julio. I thought you were calling Julio
Jones Bonafide Alpha as like. We're going there.
No, not yet. But then you you have, you also
have the merging Julio Jones and and so yeah, that that's
something where I guess not many people are doing it and and
definitely makes sense to not do it.
Yeah. All right let's let's take it to
the last chart here. Really there's I think one guy.
Now there there were two guys on this chart that were actually
that's a lie. There's I see Ravens players so
there's plenty of guys on this chart that are interesting but
Rashi Rice is like the crown jewel of this chart for playoff
best ball cause Rashi goes, you know third round most of the
time the fourth round. And no one else here is is going
anywhere near that high. A guy that was going early in
drafts when the Jags looked functional was Parker Washington
when there were doubts of Christian Kirk coming back.
That's probably that's fully off the menu for me now with Kirk
back. Oh, but yeah, this is this is a
whole smorgasbord. Of late round we've got Jameson
Williams, we've got Michael. Dell.
Justin Watson? Odell.
Jameson. Williams.
Let's see, who else do we have? Chase.
Claypool. Oh, gross, Braxton.
Area. Yeah, no, it's, I mean, it's
Cedric Wilson all the way for me, if you're going to do that
Miami wide receiver punt. But I think I think I even saw a
little Rashad Bateman in here. Yeah, so like, there's a lot of
guys on here. That's the thing about playoff
best ball. When we got to this chart in
previous weeks, we were like Jaden Reed, Rashi Rice Curtis
Samuel. All right, let's not talk about
anyone else because none of them are relevant.
But playoff best ball the threshold for points is so, so
low in in some Super Bowl scenarios especially if it's
hard to get 5 live players to the Super Bowl if they're you
know if a bye week team makes it that just having anyone anyone
fill that fifth slot, you know because what what ends up
happening is you and 12 other people have the same four
players that are alive, right. And maybe they don't have a
fifth active player, but you do, and it's Rashad Bateman and it
just. So happens.
The game's playing out, and those four players that you
share with those 12 people are the nuts so far.
And all of you are 1st through 12th and you're holding hands
chopping all the money right now.
And then at the end of the game Rashad Bateman catches 1 pass
for seven yard pass and that is $150,000 for you, you know,
that's that's why these guys matter.
So I've I've seen people talk about like oh I'm like never I'd
never click Rashad Bateman. I'd always click like I'd much
rather click Calvin Ridley or Christian Kirk as just a run off
to help me advance and like that's the reason why I I showed
that expected value calculation earlier because it's like you
know 1% boost in your and and that was only looking at round
three where we're talking about you know advancing one of eight.
We're not even talking about the one out of 400.
I I just was looking at the calculation of like your base
finals expected value rate, not even considering how much of an
advantage having a fifth player. When you're in a group of, you
know, 10 or 20 teams that have the same four players as you
like it, it gets magnified even more.
OK, so like you already saw why it was important to click those
guys just from a go from round three into the finals point.
But when you do the expected value calculation of like I get
there and there's 20 people duped with me and Rashad Bateman
only scores above 0 30% of the time, well, that 30% of the time
is $120,000 of EV for you. And so it's like .3 times 12036
grand. That Rashad Bateman play was a
$36,000 EV play for you when it you know, when you get right.
So that's that's why. But anyway, all these gross
guys, you'll You'll become intimately acquainted with them
if you do a lot of playoff basketball.
Yeah makes makes sense for sure and OK well I this has been a
lot of fun we've we've we've sprinted through the two hour
mark two hours and and and 13 minutes.
So good time good time to to stop there and like I said that
this the show has been a lot of fun to do with you this year at
SAC and looking forward to next year.
Hopefully you don't abandoned me as well and then yeah, been a
lot of fun. No, No plans on abandoning you.
Draco wouldn't think of it. Yeah, I just feel super
fortunate that you asked me to be on the show.
I had a blast with you too, man. I feel like you made me a much
better fantasy player this. Year.
Thank you. The The best thing about this
game is when you find someone else where you really respect
their opinion and you know that they're thinking about things in
the right way because it's so easy.
Especially like for people that are really in the weeds on this
stuff, You're doing a lot of your own work.
You you feel confident in the work that you're doing.
It's really easy to think that you're the smartest guy in the
room and let your ego get the best of you and only trust what
you're doing right, or trust yourself and maybe a couple
other people. But getting to work with you
where you're able to challenge me on some stuff and make me
rethink a position that I have that's really helpful for me.
And I think it's made me a much better player.
And I'm really excited to get back to drafting best ball next
season and hope hope one of our FFPC teams that we split next
year ends up taking it down. Yeah, yeah, fingers crossed.
And yeah, I I I'm really glad that I did.
I did propose you to to to to do larger ship chasing guys and I
think everyone would agree that it's been really, really good.
Just trying to make you proud, Draco.
Well, let's we'll enter.