1 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:06,760 Week 17 is over. The Fantasy championships are 2 00:00:06,760 --> 00:00:14,120 officially written in stone for the 2023 NFL season, but are we 3 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:17,240 really approaching the real fantasy season? 4 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:21,520 Playoff best ball is here, the FFPC Playoff Challenge is here, 5 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:25,840 and it's also showdown slate season in the NFL playoffs. 6 00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:33,520 We'll take you through all that and more on stat chasing Pat 7 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:37,320 Fryer, Helmo. This is why This is why I'm Hot 8 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:41,840 Anita Handjob. Fix your sight, Jamar Alpha. 9 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:46,960 Play Chase. You can't handle the heat. 10 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:49,040 It looks like we're finally at this point here, right? 11 00:00:58,080 --> 00:00:59,520 All right. We made it. 12 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:02,640 We made it through the 2023 fantasy season. 13 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:07,120 And I mean, I I don't know about you, Draco, my my results 14 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:09,400 weren't fantastic for best ball this season. 15 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:12,800 But All in all I would say it was a pretty successful fantasy 16 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:15,920 season. Had a bunch of had a bunch of 17 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:19,680 good teams that had some fun sweats all along the way. 18 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:23,720 But I think at the end of the day, it's it's not about, you 19 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:25,880 know, how much you win, It's about the friends that you make 20 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:29,560 along the way, right? Well definitely definitely feel 21 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:32,320 that I've got one this season making friends with you. 22 00:01:32,320 --> 00:01:38,880 Oh and I yeah I was. I was so I was honestly so 23 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:40,400 pumped heading into the playoffs. 24 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:44,480 Like I I'd like gotten so many different exposure things right 25 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:49,520 and and then yeah basketball just got the first week of 26 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:53,720 playoffs just got just got punched in the face I I I was 27 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:55,920 talking to you about it a little bit I was I was like a little 28 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:59,840 bitter bitch and I was totally tilting I was I was really upset 29 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:05,560 about it and but after after about a week and I said you know 30 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:09,680 and just can't can't do can't do anything about what's past can 31 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:13,520 only only focus on on on on on the the future. 32 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:20,240 And I think, I think in the last week I've entered and this is 33 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:22,560 probably nothing that most people have entered about 40 34 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:26,560 different playoff basketball after having not not done any 35 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:29,600 before. So trying, trying to, trying to 36 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:34,800 turn the corner. I'm I'm glad I got you to get 37 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:36,400 into playoff basketball. I think. 38 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:38,400 I I think I get to take credit for that, right? 39 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:42,800 Yeah. Honestly, I would have been a 40 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:46,280 little bit more of a salty bitch myself with the way that the 41 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:49,400 season shook out for me, for the regular season stuff I had. 42 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:53,560 I learned from last year. I did the stupid thing of going 43 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:57,680 back when when I saw Mike Evans go off in week 17 and one of my 44 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:03,560 four DK Milli Semi finals teams had Mike Evans on it, I think 45 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:06,680 also at DJ Moore. I like I went back and looked at 46 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:09,080 that one and realized like I probably would have won all the 47 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:10,600 money. It's like, I don't need that's. 48 00:03:10,640 --> 00:03:11,640 I'm never going to do that again. 49 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:13,040 Unnecessary information. Yeah, that. 50 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:16,800 Was it was like it's like the you know, dead dove inside do 51 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,040 not open and I'd open it. It's like I don't know what I 52 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:21,640 like. I now I'm sad. 53 00:03:21,640 --> 00:03:24,560 This is really stupid. So I didn't do that this season. 54 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:28,240 I had some pretty strong teams in the semis, but the semis went 55 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:29,920 pretty poorly for me. Overall. 56 00:03:29,920 --> 00:03:34,320 I was like it's just right about expectation if if you just take 57 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:37,680 like the neutral advance rate. But like man, I didn't have very 58 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,120 many dead roster spots. Like my teams are pretty 59 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:41,800 stacked. They were all optimized for the 60 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:44,560 playoffs with plenty of game stacks, you know. 61 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:47,560 So I I was like I I think I could very reasonably go above 62 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:52,280 like the expected advance rate but I did not had had some OK 63 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:55,200 finishes. But really the thing that has 64 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:58,360 made me the least salty is just getting to fire off at playoff 65 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:03,320 best ball and knowing that after the games wrap this Sunday I'm 66 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:07,720 going to get to start working on FFPC ownership for the playoff 67 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:11,760 challenge over there, which I'm super, super excited to talk 68 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:13,360 about. I have already started. 69 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:17,160 You know I think you as well have already started. 70 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:19,920 We've got some of the ship chasing folks who split a 71 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:24,880 mastiff earlier this year. We took some of that. 72 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:27,760 Did we min cash or do you make semi finals in the Mastiff? 73 00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:34,800 I We made the, we made the semi finals I believe and. 74 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:36,160 Now and let us down. That's what. 75 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:42,920 However it still feels like a min cash with like we only got 76 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:47,720 1.5 X or entry fee so snow feels pretty min cashy. 77 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:53,920 Yeah so so for those who are not in the 23 man mastiff Co draft 78 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:57,440 group, which you highly recommend Co drafting and voting 79 00:04:57,440 --> 00:05:00,880 on picks with 23 different people, it's it's super easy 80 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:05,240 especially when you make Phil do all of the work but. 81 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:09,280 I just remember that the power surge of like everybody voting 82 00:05:09,280 --> 00:05:12,120 one way and then like trying to argue everybody back. 83 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:14,680 Oh, there was a lot of there was some politics. 84 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:16,960 There was some politics for sure. 85 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:19,520 It was pretty funny, honestly, getting getting the vote blocks, 86 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:22,360 you know, people going in and trying to whip up some votes for 87 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:24,360 their favorite pick. That was it. 88 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:27,120 Honestly, was a bunch of fun. I I felt really bad for it. 89 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:29,400 Was stupidly annoying, especially when you got into 90 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:32,040 like the 17 rounds. The 17/5. 91 00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:35,240 Rounds. The second Mastiff that we're 92 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:38,680 doing what are on round 17 is like, all right, fuck it guys, 93 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:43,440 we're just taking these. But anyway, that group of 23 min 94 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:47,320 cashers, we have now rolled over our massive winnings from the 95 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:50,960 Mastiff and they are being diversified across a large 96 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:53,640 number of different playoff contests and formats. 97 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:58,120 So I believe that we have 5 FFPC teams and you and I are each 98 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:02,640 captaining A subgroup that is in charge of constructing 1 of the 99 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:06,000 five teams. And then we also have two 100 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:11,720 entries earmarked for the Big Mitten that myself and Chris G 101 00:06:11,840 --> 00:06:15,640 plan on drafting after this weekend slate wraps up. 102 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:19,160 So we have maximum information, we're going to go do those 103 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:22,320 drafts, I believe, over on a leg upstream. 104 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:26,160 We haven't for sure ironed out all the details yet, but keep 105 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:28,280 your eyes peeled for that. I'm sure we'll, you know, we'll 106 00:06:28,280 --> 00:06:30,960 announce it in the Discord, especially for those of you who 107 00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:33,200 have equity in those teams. We'll let you know. 108 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:37,400 So hopefully we can run that up. But anyway, I I for the playoff 109 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:41,680 contest and I think that's a good segue into the charts for 110 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:44,880 this week because if you're tuning in here and you're like, 111 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:47,200 what are two idiots going to talk about? 112 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:50,600 Fantasy football season is over. I don't really care about the 113 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:54,200 charts. Well, Oak on Tremain Montfrer 114 00:06:54,280 --> 00:06:59,080 fantasy football season is still alive and well for 2023. 115 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:02,840 We've got all this playoff contest content to go through. 116 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:06,680 And then I also think one of the things that I really like and I 117 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:10,160 think is a strong suit for you, Draco, just in in chopping it up 118 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:15,320 with you about Bestball is your ability to kind of get a good 119 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:19,120 read on how the market is going to handle players. 120 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:22,000 And then also have your own take of, yeah, the market's going to 121 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:26,200 have, you know, I I think about, you know, what you were saying 122 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:28,920 about Rashi Rice, which got me to draft more Rashi Rice near 123 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:31,600 the end of this offseason. When you're saying, you know, 124 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:34,560 he, he probably should be like a a tenth round pick here, like it 125 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:36,280 doesn't really make any sense where he's going. 126 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:39,080 I could easily see him being like a sixth round pick next 127 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:40,640 year. It's just like that. 128 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:44,800 For whatever reason, my brain hadn't gotten to thinking it 129 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:47,760 through that way. And when you said it that way, 130 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:50,320 it helped click for me. And so I definitely think you 131 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:52,360 can provide some really interesting insights to the 132 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:55,800 people for some of the way too early best ball drafts, which 133 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:58,080 believe it or not, are only a couple months away at this 134 00:07:58,080 --> 00:07:59,680 point. Couple weeks. 135 00:07:59,880 --> 00:08:02,800 I think I heard the FFPC never too early. 136 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:05,360 Is it gonna open at January 17th? 137 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:11,160 Man, that I mean, even for a true, true, disturbed individual 138 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:13,720 like myself, that might be a little too early. 139 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:16,080 Even for. Me, I mean, I maxed the big 140 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:19,680 board and and that was my one of my better tournaments as far as 141 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:24,080 my advance rate and ROI on it. And yeah, that that way too 142 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:25,680 early. Starting in January might be a 143 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:30,120 little early even for me. I I need like a few weeks break 144 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:32,120 before I start firing again, you know? 145 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:38,480 I'm, I'm, I'm just, I, I, I I feel like a sperm from the 23 146 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:41,720 season and I'm I'm just honestly, I could be the guy who 147 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:47,400 just lost all his chips like sending it, sending even more 148 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:49,400 back. But I I just feel ready to go. 149 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:52,360 That's that's good. You're letting it motivate you. 150 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:55,800 And you know, I I think a motivated Draco is something 151 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:58,880 that if you're a competitor, you don't want to see in your lobby. 152 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:02,360 You fire up the lobby and you see pissed off Draco. 153 00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:04,440 I think. I think all of your team names 154 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:07,200 on the FFPC need to have that as some kind of theme. 155 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:13,000 Well thank you very much for the the, the kind words and have 156 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:15,760 definitely really enjoyed doing the the, the show which you 157 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:21,000 definitely learned a lot from hearing me talk so excited to 158 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:24,120 excited to get into these these charts. 159 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:28,400 Oh I am not AI don't have to present. 160 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:34,200 OK. So same same quarterback chart 161 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:40,000 we've had all season and honestly we've one one thing 162 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:43,640 that I think it is interesting about this chart is we've we've 163 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:47,360 sort of noted before that we don't have the volume piece in 164 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:49,480 here. We just have the efficiency 165 00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:54,600 piece and and this is a very efficiency that this chart is 166 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:58,280 designed to highlight efficiency both through touchdown rate and 167 00:09:58,280 --> 00:10:01,440 then adjusted yards per temp which is like yards per temp but 168 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:04,040 rewards such stands punishes interceptions. 169 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:09,640 And I honestly wonder with the the sort of variance of playoff 170 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:15,160 basketball, with it being like just four weeks of games and 171 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:18,600 then only for the teams that make to the Super Bowl, I almost 172 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:22,440 wonder if the if the the efficiency stuff is actually of, 173 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:26,120 like greater importance than much greater importance than the 174 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:29,240 volume stuff. That's an interesting way to 175 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:33,880 frame it and let me let me try and dissect it and think through 176 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:35,840 to what I I think you're getting at here. 177 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:39,520 Would you say that the reason for that is quarterbacks with 178 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:44,480 these really high efficiencies are the ones that might have 179 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:48,720 access to those spike week games at a higher frequency than the 180 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:53,880 guys with say for example, like let's take a volume type guy, 181 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:57,960 gosh, who's a who's a good volume exam? 182 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:01,120 Josh Allen Josh Allen is a He's a volume player. 183 00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:05,920 So, and he hasn't been quite as efficient Now, a big part of his 184 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:09,000 fantasy production in recent weeks has come on the ground 185 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:12,440 through his legs. But would you say it's It's safe 186 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:16,560 to say that while Josh Allen probably has like lower downside 187 00:11:16,560 --> 00:11:20,280 deviation because he has that rushing upside because he's such 188 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:25,000 a high volume passer, you know you've got that better downside 189 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:27,080 deviation. It's lower than other 190 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:31,200 quarterbacks, but maybe the rate at which he can access spike 191 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:35,600 weeks could be a little lower than say, Purdy or Lamar or Dak 192 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:37,280 Prescott, these more efficient quarterbacks. 193 00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:40,720 And then the other to add an additional layer of context to 194 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:42,480 that. That's not to say that Josh 195 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:47,360 Allen can't score points at the same frequency that those guys 196 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:49,640 do that are are high point scoring weeks. 197 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:54,160 It's just like within their own distributions of the points that 198 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:58,200 these guys score, Josh Allen doesn't access his ceiling at 199 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:00,440 the same rate that those other guys. 200 00:12:00,560 --> 00:12:04,880 I I think that's a reasonable description of of the Josh Allen 201 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:08,480 experience and he's he's actually if you if you look at 202 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:12,480 Josh Allen's fantasy scoring I think he's the top scorer on the 203 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:17,720 year and but it it's like it's it's a lot more sort of steady 204 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:23,680 Eddie and a little bit like Jalen Hurts sort of like you 205 00:12:23,680 --> 00:12:28,200 have that you have the touch push stuff which is is 206 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:32,280 essentially insane insanely great volume stuff and doesn't 207 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:37,120 really fail and and definitely has has access to a ceiling but 208 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:42,160 it's a little different than Lamar Jackson who who's insanely 209 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:46,320 efficient and like almost every game and then you add a game 210 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:50,520 where he has the volume like against the Dolphins and and and 211 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:53,280 he puts up the score that you can't beat essentially. 212 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:57,960 Yeah, I would. I think I've teased this before. 213 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:00,840 I've like talked about this concept, but downside deviation 214 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:03,880 in quarterback is something that I've looked at in the past and 215 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:08,400 then I'm probably gonna do that. That might be one of my projects 216 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:12,000 this offseason that I'll I'll have over it, leg up and I'll. 217 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:14,960 I'll kind of pull back the curtain a little bit and show 218 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:19,840 you guys some of the stuff that I was using to evaluate what 219 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:23,240 quarterbacks were acceptable to take on solo quarterback builds 220 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:25,760 in best Ball this season. Because I actually think that's 221 00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:28,360 going to be a pretty important. I think it's something that's 222 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:30,600 underutilized by the field right now. 223 00:13:30,680 --> 00:13:35,280 It's not something you should do very frequently, but when you do 224 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:37,160 it, you want to make sure you're doing it with the correct 225 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:40,440 archetype of quarterback, and it's kind of an archetype that 226 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:44,440 hasn't been correctly identified or classified in my opinion. 227 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:49,960 And so I need to pretty that up and make it presentable to other 228 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:52,480 people. And not just me, but I think 229 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:55,040 that might be that. That's one of my project ideas 230 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:58,680 here for this offseason. But anyway, Josh Allen. 231 00:13:58,680 --> 00:14:01,440 You know, just as a a little spoiler, Josh Allen and Jaylen 232 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:03,360 Hurts. Both are two of those 233 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:06,200 quarterbacks that fall into that classification. 234 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:08,520 And that might be like a, well, duh, they're the elite 235 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:10,200 quarterbacks. But it's, you know, not all 236 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:13,240 elite quarterbacks fall into that category like Lamar Jackson 237 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:17,920 absolutely does not, because Lamar has a larger downside 238 00:14:17,920 --> 00:14:20,040 deviation. There are games where Lamar hits 239 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:24,520 a floor outcome that's more like a true floor outcome for non 240 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:29,240 elite quarterbacks, where Josh Allen and Jalen Hurt's floor is 241 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:31,840 more like a Jared Goff mean game, right? 242 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:35,120 And that's the big that's kind of what you're looking for. 243 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:38,000 But I I won't. I won't give it all away here. 244 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:43,320 So the other thing about the efficiency stuff is so obviously 245 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:46,360 this this is for the weeks, this is week 17. 246 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:52,120 So we've got all 17 weeks and 16 weeks of games for each of these 247 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:57,120 players and Mahomes here is sitting in in in right in the 248 00:14:57,120 --> 00:15:03,080 middle here and I I I I think that's sort of interesting in 249 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:09,680 that like it's it's like obviously a down a big down year 250 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:14,280 for Mahomes is like average which goes to show how how good 251 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:18,440 he is and then obviously you're getting you're getting a large 252 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:22,880 discount on Mahomes in playoff best ball and then then I'm I'm 253 00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:26,360 guessing you ever have before and you're getting a large 254 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:30,320 discount on on players like on on his pass catchers his wide 255 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:39,520 receiver one and two I it it does make me wonder if like like 256 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:42,720 the if the Chiefs go to the Super Bowl you're going to want 257 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:48,240 to have chief sacks obviously. But if that has to be on the 258 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:55,320 back of their defense does that I guess how how much how much 259 00:15:55,720 --> 00:16:01,280 like take away can we get from like Mahomes having having being 260 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:04,280 one of the lower efficiency players of the quarterbacks 261 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:06,560 there on this chart especially when you're just looking at 262 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:09,480 playoff guys. I think there's a lot to unpack 263 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:11,640 there. The first thing I want to think 264 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:16,000 through is like, what happens to Patrick Mahomes on this chart? 265 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:18,360 What happens to his adjusted yards per attempt and his TD 266 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:22,080 rate if we give him let's just let's live in like total 267 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:25,360 fantasyland right now and say that the Chiefs magically get 268 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:29,400 Marvin Harrison Junior. OK, so like, what happens then? 269 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:31,400 Like what? How does that change Pat 270 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:33,320 Mahomes? Does he all of a sudden go to 271 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:36,720 like where Tua and Lamar are? Does he get all the way to where 272 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:39,400 Purdy is? How does that change where he 273 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:42,640 sits on the chart? I, I, I I mean I think from a 274 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:48,720 never too early like next year like if if I'm a betting man and 275 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:51,680 I sort of am. If you're telling me that I can 276 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:56,720 bet on that Mahomes efficiency being like dramatically better 277 00:16:56,720 --> 00:17:02,000 in 2024-2025 season than it was the 2324 season. 278 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:05,079 Like that that that feels like almost like a short thing, 279 00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:06,520 whereas like it's. Hard. 280 00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:10,200 It's hard to get wide receivers worse than what he has right 281 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:12,560 now, right like. And you're talking about like a 282 00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:16,119 a pure, like nails nailed on Hall of Fame player. 283 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:20,520 Like just because he has a down ear doesn't mean like doesn't 284 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:23,400 mean we're we're adjusting to this new new reality where Pat 285 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:26,720 Mahomes isn't that good. Like, that's the one thing that 286 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,800 we do know. Yeah, I mean, if you go back and 287 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:33,280 look at these guys that are like these elite passers in in their 288 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:36,880 prime, you know, like I'd say it's pretty safe to say Pat 289 00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:39,240 Mahomes is squarely in his prime right now. 290 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:42,600 Now the quarterback position is 1, where as long as the physical 291 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:46,040 traits don't fall off, like your prime can be a pretty, pretty 292 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:49,480 large window, right? Yeah, but, like, if you look at 293 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:52,560 guys like Aaron Rodgers, back when Aaron Rodgers was like the 294 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:56,640 quarterback won forever, you know, there were years where 295 00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:59,960 he'd go between like quarterback one and quarterback 6. 296 00:17:59,960 --> 00:18:02,320 And I think he, he even had one that was like as low as like 297 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:04,240 quarterback eight or nine, if I'm remembering right. 298 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:08,200 But then every other year around it was like QB1QB2QB1QB2. 299 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:11,840 And so getting these anomalous years where it's like, yeah, 300 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:13,880 it's just a bad year, dude. Like stuff happens. 301 00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:16,000 It's a it's a game with a lot of randomness. 302 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:19,720 And this is, you know, probably the worst receiving core he's 303 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:24,200 ever going to have. You know, you're also relying so 304 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:29,720 much on an aging Travis Kelsey, who suffered an ankle sprain and 305 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:32,040 then came back and basically played through it the whole 306 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:35,160 season. And like, just up until, like 307 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:38,200 maybe the last two weeks, I really felt like I noticed 308 00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:41,440 Kelsey lacking, you know, explosiveness and burst. 309 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:43,760 You know, even more so than he was looking like prior to the 310 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:45,640 ankle sprain. Like, he's definitely gotten 311 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:47,720 older. But before the ankle sprain, it 312 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:50,640 was still like, Oh yeah, this guy is, he's got the Titans of 313 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,400 the league. Yeah, but for, you know, the 314 00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:57,000 majority of this season after that ankle sprain, to me, just, 315 00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:00,800 you know, watching the games, watching Kelsey is like, dude, 316 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:04,560 There were plays where he tried to turn and then after trying to 317 00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:06,000 turn, he just laid down on the field. 318 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:07,640 It's like, whoops, my ankle can't do that. 319 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,000 And he'd like hobble off to the sideline afterwards. 320 00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:12,840 There's lots of times where I noticed stuff like that. 321 00:19:13,120 --> 00:19:17,000 But in the last two weeks I can think of a couple plays where 322 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,680 it's not going particularly well for the Chiefs and he's like 323 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:23,880 very clearly frustrated and he just goes Hulk mode like truck 324 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,720 sticks. A couple people like does does 325 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:30,160 vintage Kelsey looking stuff and you're like oh that's there's 326 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:34,800 Zeus that's the dude. So I I wonder if, you know, a 327 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:38,480 big part of the home's efficiency is you, you got that 328 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:42,040 Hanford Kelsey and then they really weren't willing to fully 329 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:45,560 trust Rashi Rice this season, which I think probably was more 330 00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:48,040 of a personnel error than anything, right? 331 00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:52,080 Like I think you just gotta knowing what your receiver room 332 00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:53,480 looks like, you gotta lean into that. 333 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:57,400 So I I wouldn't be surprised if Mahomes efficiency in the 334 00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:00,640 playoffs actually gets closer to what he's been historically. 335 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:03,400 And yeah, like you said next season to bet on his efficiency 336 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,160 to get a little closer to what he had done historically, I 337 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,240 think feels like a pretty good bet to me. 338 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:10,520 Right. And. 339 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:14,960 So yes. So essentially you're if you're 340 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:19,520 drafting Chiefs you're sort of saying you're you're telling 341 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:25,720 yourself the story where this early season injury for Kelsey 342 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:31,760 has been hampering him. But come the playoffs it's like 343 00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:35,280 it's playoff. It's playoff time like you you 344 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:41,040 figure it out and and and and perhaps we get a a much closer 345 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:44,840 to and vintage Kelsey than we did this season. 346 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:48,440 I think I think the other thing that's interesting and I know 347 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:52,840 this is like a separate thing and if you're betting on the the 348 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:59,840 Chiefs to turn it around like you almost you almost that's 349 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:07,000 reliant on a turd guide to emerge right Like if if it's not 350 00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:11,240 if it it almost needs if it's not the defense that just goes 351 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:15,760 that dominates every opponent like you need them some turd 352 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:21,520 receiver to like figure it out or a marriage that becomes like 353 00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:24,480 even for just a couple of games an important player for them. 354 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:28,680 I can definitely see the thought process behind that. 355 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:34,800 I would wonder if what if they just really lean into a a pretty 356 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:38,040 concentrated target tree between Rashi, Rice, Travis, Kelsey, 357 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:41,560 Just feed them and then Pacheco's their functional run 358 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:43,720 game. Like, is that enough for their 359 00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:48,160 offense to be like or or will defenses just be able to take 360 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,240 that away 'cause it's like, OK, let's just double Kelsey, we'll 361 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:54,800 double Rice and then we dare you to throw to MBS. 362 00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:58,000 You know, like Double Dog dare you to throw to MBS. 363 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:04,360 And yeah, and that makes sense and and by the way on your comp 364 00:22:04,360 --> 00:22:11,520 to to Rogers. So in 2015 Rogers was the QB 9 365 00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:16,360 and but then here's QB one the next year QB 6. 366 00:22:16,360 --> 00:22:20,920 The year after that and and and I guess Mahomes, this year has 367 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:28,080 been QB 13 and so pretty close yeah? 368 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:31,360 And the reason I remembered Rodgers was QB nine one year was 369 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:35,680 'cause I think like back in early Dak career when he had, he 370 00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:38,640 had had like a pretty solid start as a fantasy quarterback. 371 00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:41,400 I think he was like QB 6 his first full season or something, 372 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:45,000 and never outside the top ten like QB 623 or something like 373 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,080 that. I remember getting into a heated 374 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:50,040 argument with someone in my home league about how Dak was 375 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,440 basically the same thing as Aaron Rodgers for fantasy 376 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:56,440 football, and I cited the Aaron Rodgers finishing as QB 9. 377 00:22:56,440 --> 00:23:00,160 So it's funny, the stupid stuff that your brain remembers, but I 378 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,960 I did remember that about Aaron Rodgers Fantasy finishes. 379 00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:09,480 And and I guess on on the on the concentrated this to me this is 380 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:14,480 a crazy start Rashi rice like regardless if it not not target 381 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:18,520 for a run not none of the roof participation stuff just flat 382 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:26,880 out target share over week 12 through week 17 was at 27% and 383 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:33,480 so I guess to me that is like it it it it in terms of rice it's 384 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:36,520 been pretty concentrated. So what you're really saying 385 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:39,320 because I know it hasn't been concentrated the Kelsey, what 386 00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:42,600 you're really saying is Kelsey sort of a marriages and then can 387 00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:46,440 and those two can be complementary to each other and 388 00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:48,520 that is what sort of Sparks said. 389 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:51,200 Yeah. I think that's really the way to 390 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,920 play the Chiefs is that it's the return of Kelsey And then I I do 391 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,760 believe that you probably should play it both ways. 392 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:02,200 Where the Chiefs are successful and they're either successful a 393 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:05,680 because Kelsey comes back and he's much more of himself. 394 00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,240 And then the Chiefs were successful because Rice has 395 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:10,880 emerged and now they have Kelsey and and their defense is great 396 00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:12,600 right. And and they have Papa Holmes 397 00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,240 who's you know one of the best if not the best quarterback in 398 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:16,520 the league right now. Right. 399 00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:20,160 Right. And then the other outcome is 400 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,760 Kelsey is more of a shadow of himself but he's still able to 401 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,320 contribute in some meaningful ways to the team. 402 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:30,200 Maybe not as great for you for fantasy, but then you do what 403 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:32,760 you were talking about off betting on one of these other 404 00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:36,080 guys to emerge betting, You know, like, God, I hate that I'm 405 00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,880 blowing this guy up now and I've, I've heard other people 406 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:40,760 start talking about. It pretty sad. 407 00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:42,640 I don't know so much. I know who you're going to say. 408 00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:47,760 Yeah, it's Richie James. Because, you know, I, we've seen 409 00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,240 Richie James do this at other places too. 410 00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,560 Like he, you know, at the Giants is like, Oh yeah, Richie James 411 00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:56,280 is like one of our most competent receivers. 412 00:24:56,280 --> 00:25:00,600 We can throw this guy the ball and you're just dealing with not 413 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:03,320 a lot of target competition there in Kansas City. 414 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,600 It's like Travis Kelsey, Rashi Rice and no one else. 415 00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:11,960 And so to think that Richie James could get 15 to 18% target 416 00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,000 share doesn't seem like that far of a stretch for me. 417 00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:17,440 And he's free in these playoff basketball drafts. 418 00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,640 And so if you're building a Kansas City goes to the Super 419 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:24,960 Bowl type team, Richie James feels like such a strong bet to 420 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:29,880 me to have on it because you're saying like it's almost just 421 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:33,400 like you said, it's almost necessary for someone to emerge 422 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:37,520 and do something for this team. And so that's why I really like 423 00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,560 the Richie James bet for the Chiefs. 424 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:44,800 I think we also should shift gears to the team that's become 425 00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:49,560 the most accessible to get. They just slide all the time and 426 00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:53,320 playoff best ball now and that's the Eagles now. 427 00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:57,280 My big Eagle's fade is feeling fantastic right now. 428 00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,880 But I have to tell you that the thesis behind my Eagle's fade 429 00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:05,680 was more that Jalen Hurts had a legitimate long term injury that 430 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,440 we haven't been. They haven't fully disclosed to 431 00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:10,360 us yet. Like that knee injury was 432 00:26:10,360 --> 00:26:13,800 actually more serious than we've been, you know, made aware of. 433 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,680 But I gotta tell you, the last couple weeks he looks a lot more 434 00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:21,640 like his old he's he's running and like getting up to speed and 435 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:24,320 like he's not making violent cuts or anything. 436 00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:26,200 But that never was really part of his game. 437 00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,120 When he's running, he's more of like a a power runner, you know, 438 00:26:29,120 --> 00:26:32,400 If anything, the. Guy Squats Squats 600 lbs. 439 00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:36,640 Yeah, but like the last couple of Eagles games, I'm like, oh 440 00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:40,440 shit, my thesis might not be right because that looks like a 441 00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:42,880 healthy guy. I am. 442 00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:48,320 I've I've seen some some tweets that essentially the Eagle's 443 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:52,520 offensive efficiency in the last couple of games has been very 444 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:54,400 very good. They've they've blown up the 445 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:59,560 scoreboard but their defense has been awful their defense has 446 00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:03,480 been shipping points and and that's why they they keep losing 447 00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:07,280 games and they they they had fired their defensive 448 00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:10,760 coordinator they decided Mac Patricia was going to be the 449 00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:14,280 solution and and and and that just sort of made it worse. 450 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:22,800 So I that that that's one where I think like if the Eagle if the 451 00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:27,520 Eagles make it to the Super Bowl like you know you know that 452 00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:31,480 their offense well if you're basing off the last couple weeks 453 00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:35,040 their offense is likely been very very strong very efficient 454 00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:40,640 and and putting up points it's like what I I think almost what 455 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:42,480 you need to happen is their defense will improve their 456 00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:46,840 defense to figure out how do we how do we get our linebackers to 457 00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:50,040 cover all these 49er players and and and so forth. 458 00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:54,040 Yeah, I I definitely agree with you. 459 00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:57,240 The Eagles offense has looked way more functional and prior to 460 00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,480 the last couple games their offense was looking pretty 461 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,560 dysfunctional, which was part of why the fade felt so good to me. 462 00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:04,800 It was like, what does this team have going for it? 463 00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:08,560 Their offense is broken now. Their defense is broken and and 464 00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:12,000 so now it feels like the offense is starting to get back on track 465 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:17,080 a little bit for me. You know, I still have a pretty 466 00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,720 healthy fate on the Eagles because of the volume of teams 467 00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:22,560 that I've drafted. I will never be able to get to a 468 00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:27,760 place that is neutral on the Eagles and and honestly, like 469 00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:32,480 even still I'm like, I'm not finding my way to them very 470 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:37,440 often because their path is most likely through the 49ers which 471 00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:42,440 just feels really thin to me. But I've gotta like, I want to 472 00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:46,080 be honest and say like, prior to this last week. 473 00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:48,320 And I know that they lost to the Cardinals and that's why they're 474 00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:51,040 dropping and ever and feels way worse about the Eagles. 475 00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:55,400 But I'll tell you because my thesis was so based in Jalen 476 00:28:55,400 --> 00:29:00,440 Hurt's injury and he doesn't look injured to me anymore, or 477 00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:02,480 or at least like he's way closer. 478 00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:07,560 And and and keep plank of your of your T's is. 479 00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:09,440 It's crumbling in front of my eyes. 480 00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:14,160 And so I'm way more scared about my fade than I I I was, like, 481 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:18,400 ready to take that to the bank. You know, before I saw him play 482 00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:21,920 in Arizona. And now I'm like, oh shit, I 483 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:25,680 might have got out over my skis a little bit, like on estimating 484 00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:30,920 the severity of that injury. And so I think that I might get 485 00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:34,640 bailed out on the fade because they dropped the game and 486 00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:36,680 they're going to have to go through the 49ers. 487 00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:43,240 But gosh, I yeah I do think that if you have a big Eagle's fade 488 00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:46,480 like I do you might be interested in mixing some of 489 00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:49,960 them in at cheap prices. Especially in the gauntlet where 490 00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:52,840 you get an advantage on your opponents who have all these. 491 00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:55,360 You know A.J. Brown you can get in the second. 492 00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:57,680 You can get A.J. Brown in the late 2nd sometimes 493 00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:02,000 2-3 turn, you know in gauntlet drafts right now and everyone 494 00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:07,080 else has him in like you know the mid first so or the 1st. 50% 495 00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:10,240 of the contest has him in the mid 1st and so that's such a 496 00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:14,520 large advantage in my opinion that I'll probably be. 497 00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:18,120 I'm going to be looking to do that in those rooms where I'm in 498 00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:21,520 a structure where it makes sense to utilize Eagles, maybe as an 499 00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:24,280 advance rate piece or you know something or other like that. 500 00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:26,920 I'll be looking to take advantage of those sliding 501 00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:29,360 prices in the gauntlet, even though I've got a pretty heavy 502 00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:32,440 Eagles fade, so. Got it. 503 00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,360 Yeah, that makes sense. And so I'm going to use this 504 00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:39,080 chart to ask you a question that I know you've been feeling quite 505 00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:44,960 a bit. So Rashad White and and and and 506 00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:48,640 just to just to highlight one more time, this, this chart is 507 00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:51,520 only the last four weeks, the average of the last four weeks. 508 00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:56,080 Rashad White is somebody who you've been sort of excited 509 00:30:56,080 --> 00:31:00,320 about all season especially relative to to market sentiment 510 00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:04,120 and and given this price that he's sort of a bell go that is 511 00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:08,280 is useful in the passing game. So he has, even if it's not the 512 00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:12,800 pure profile, he has this sort of profile where he's using the 513 00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:14,480 run game. He's using the pass game. 514 00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:21,920 So he's versatile and and can score points and I, I, I, I, I, 515 00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:25,920 I'm sort of leading the witness here but what what are you doing 516 00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:29,600 with a player like Rashad White who you know they're they're not 517 00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:35,440 the bottom seed and they they lucky do make the playoffs and 518 00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:37,720 honestly they're going to project well. 519 00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:43,560 Yeah, the the thing that I've been doing with the Bucks in 520 00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:47,960 general, because so much of playoff basketball is it's not a 521 00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:50,760 player takes kind of contest, It's a team level. 522 00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:53,440 You know, what's the probability that this team makes the 523 00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:56,240 conference championship? Really is like the driving 524 00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:58,640 factor behind everything. 5%, apparently. 525 00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,200 Yeah. And so the Bucks are thin to do 526 00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:05,800 that. But for me, I was so light on 527 00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:09,640 Bucks and specifically the combination that I didn't have 528 00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:13,160 hardly any of before That I'm willing to do now is I had 529 00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:16,720 almost no Bucks Cowboys because it looked almost like a sure 530 00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:19,400 thing that the Bucks and Cowboys were going to face each other in 531 00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:22,880 round one. Now it looks pretty likely that 532 00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:27,640 it's going to be Bucks and Eagles round one and so the 533 00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:30,600 combination that I previously was willing to do which would 534 00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:33,520 have been Eagles Bucks is now off the menu. 535 00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:37,880 I'd I'd never draft that and now I'm willing to draft Cowboys 536 00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:42,600 Bucks and I do think those are teams like now we're going to we 537 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:46,560 can get a little bit into player takes here like but think about 538 00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:50,760 the match ups for both of those teams not just in round one of 539 00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:52,640 the play offs but into round two of the play offs. 540 00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:57,360 So the Cowboys either get you know the Rams or the Packers in 541 00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:00,920 week one at home. Cowboys are averaging 40 points 542 00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,520 a game at home. Like those are some pieces you 543 00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:05,600 might want to have in playoff basketball. 544 00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:07,640 Even if you don't think the Cowboys are going to the Super 545 00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:11,640 Bowl, the path, the conference championship game, about as 546 00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:15,760 clean as it can be, you know. So they they feel really good 547 00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:19,200 for that just in like a raw point scoring ability. 548 00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:22,440 And you marry that with the probability they make the 549 00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:25,200 conference championships. The Cowboys might be some of the 550 00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:28,920 best clicks in the tournament. And I'm as a as a you know, 551 00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:31,480 eternal pessimist Cowboys fan, I don't even think they're making 552 00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:33,800 the Super Bowl and I think they're one of the best clicks 553 00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:37,080 in the tournament. And so then when you look at the 554 00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:39,520 Bucks, it's the. Are you OK with me showing this, 555 00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:41,760 by the way? Showing what? 556 00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:47,200 Oh oh, I didn't this. Yeah, yeah. 557 00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:49,960 Absolutely. OK, yeah. 558 00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:53,320 When you when you look at the Bucks playing the Eagles who we 559 00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,360 just talked about, their defense has been a sieve like. 560 00:33:57,040 --> 00:34:00,800 So I get you're telling me I can combine Cowboys Bucks who are 561 00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:04,480 going to be two of the offenses in the best situation just put 562 00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:09,080 up lots of points in round one and I'm always really aggressive 563 00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:11,520 with my teams like I'm building them with lots of Ravens. 564 00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:14,120 I'm building them, you know, sometimes with 49ers. 565 00:34:14,159 --> 00:34:17,719 Obviously you can't do a Dallas and Tampa Bay combo with 49ers 566 00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:20,800 unless you're doing something with like 5 bye week players and 567 00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:23,840 then you're willing to punt off, you know, one or two players 568 00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:25,800 that are just going to be dead in round two for you. 569 00:34:26,639 --> 00:34:29,600 But we won't get too much into the game theory aspect of it 570 00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:31,239 there. But to to circle back to your 571 00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:34,719 Rashad White question, yes, I'm drafting Rashad White. 572 00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,600 Typically, I will not take as much Rashad White as I would 573 00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:42,560 Mike Evans because roster construction considerations 574 00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:46,199 typically push me towards wanting to take a wide receiver 575 00:34:46,199 --> 00:34:49,040 on an underdog team as opposed to a running back on an underdog 576 00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:50,960 team. Just the way that I like to 577 00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:55,080 construct my rosters for optimizing for the way that I 578 00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:56,520 think this contest should be played. 579 00:34:57,320 --> 00:35:00,440 But there are going to be times where I'm thin enough at running 580 00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:03,880 back that I'm willing to do something like Rashad White, 581 00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:07,520 Mike Evans, Skinny Stack, get me through the early rounds. 582 00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:10,800 If the Bucks win round one, great. 583 00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:15,080 If they win round two, I'm because the way that I play the 584 00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:17,760 game, the Bucks are never my primary stack. 585 00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:20,520 If I've advanced to round three, it's probably because my primary 586 00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,600 stack with my quarterback is going to the conference 587 00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:27,040 championship. And so in the event that I am in 588 00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:29,400 the conference championship round and I have my primary 589 00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:33,160 stack alive and I have Rashad White, Mike Evans alive, I bet 590 00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:36,440 you I'm like 70 plus percent to advance to the Super Bowl at 591 00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:38,960 that point because of the way that I build my teams for the 592 00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:40,920 contest. And so yeah. 593 00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:47,680 My guess is just I guess just to to ask to to sort of dive in 594 00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:52,800 here. So Tampa Bay it says here at 69% 595 00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:54,200 to make the playoffs. Nice. 596 00:35:55,400 --> 00:36:01,400 Very nice. 5% to to make the conference championship and I 597 00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:05,840 guess the question is, is, is is roughly speaking as a 69% chance 598 00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:09,960 to make the playoffs is that enough and for us to be drafting 599 00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:15,240 them now prior to this weekend and when there's there's 600 00:36:15,240 --> 00:36:18,760 outcomes where they don't make it or next next week you'll 601 00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:21,240 you'll know you'll you'll just know who's in the playoffs. 602 00:36:21,720 --> 00:36:23,320 Right. They're right on them. 603 00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:26,640 And Jacksonville are right on the threshold for me of like 604 00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:30,680 it's OK to take them. They're But you shouldn't be 605 00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:34,320 starting your draft with the plan of I'm gonna go Mike Evans 606 00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:36,920 and Rashad White and those are my advance rate pieces. 607 00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:40,840 Like that's what happens. That's what you do when you get 608 00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:42,800 forced into that path of the game tree. 609 00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:44,840 Like this is the thing that makes the most sense for me. 610 00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:51,160 I already have Dallas, so I I. Built my Dallas stack and let's 611 00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:58,440 say I I have AI. I, I, I, I have a a stock on the 612 00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:00,720 other side where the QB is already gone. 613 00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:03,720 Oh shit. Somebody just took my yeah some 614 00:37:03,720 --> 00:37:06,960 somebody just took what's Dak Prescott. 615 00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:09,280 Now I got to figure out a quarterback stock. 616 00:37:09,720 --> 00:37:15,440 OK who's there Trevor Lawrence and and and Jacksonville. 617 00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:17,680 I I don't know. You're probably not doing Baker 618 00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:21,840 Mayfield on Tampa Bay. Yeah, I probably as far as like 619 00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:25,240 the grossest solo quarterback that I'll do for like this team 620 00:37:25,240 --> 00:37:29,280 could make a run like Matt Stafford, Joe Flacco. 621 00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:32,000 Those ones are like, 'cause you see their their odds of 622 00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:37,240 conference championship is 15% for Stafford and 22% for Flacco. 623 00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:40,080 That's high enough for me. You know like in the outcomes 624 00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:42,320 where that plays out like I'm cooking. 625 00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:46,560 But yeah I wouldn't do Baker like my break glass in case of 626 00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:49,640 emergency wouldn't be on taking Baker Mayfield and it's bucks 627 00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:52,240 all the way, baby. It would more so be like I've 628 00:37:52,240 --> 00:37:56,560 got five players on buy and I'm literally on my my round one 629 00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:59,640 player that's hitting my lineup right now is like Tony Pollard 630 00:37:59,880 --> 00:38:03,960 and Brandon Cooks and then I'm like staring down who are my my 631 00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:06,600 last three players gonna be to fill out my starting roster. 632 00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:08,840 It's like, oh. It's not gonna be the the turd 633 00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:12,440 string tight ends for for. The Ravens? 634 00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:13,480 No. No. 635 00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:18,160 Yeah, yeah, I I at that point that I'm like, well, it's gross. 636 00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:21,840 It probably doesn't work the vast majority of the time, but 637 00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:24,680 it's logical. It keeps me within structure. 638 00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:28,440 And when I win playing the game this way, I win a 639 00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:32,880 disproportionate amount of money compared to playing it in the 640 00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:36,360 less optimal fashion. So, OK. 641 00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:40,240 And that that makes sense. Can. 642 00:38:40,240 --> 00:38:40,680 Can. I'm. 643 00:38:40,720 --> 00:38:43,160 I'm going to. I'm gonna go back to our our. 644 00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:47,120 Regularly scheduled programming. Yeah, just I thought it made 645 00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:50,920 sense to show that in in the context of the conversation and 646 00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:52,480 it's. OK to be proud of that that 647 00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:53,760 infographic? Draco I. 648 00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:56,240 I, you know, I I spend a lot of time working on it. 649 00:38:56,240 --> 00:38:58,480 I'm really proud of. It I really I dude, I've sent it 650 00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:00,200 around to a bunch of people. I've been like, look at this 651 00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:02,240 cool thing Draco whipped up. I think it's like really 652 00:39:02,240 --> 00:39:04,760 intuitive way to look at all the conference championship odds. 653 00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:07,520 It's nice and neat, you know, Shows all the playoff stuff, so 654 00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:12,680 it's good, man. Thank you and then I think Kyron 655 00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:17,240 Williams he's another example of a player like Rashad White but 656 00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:20,480 he he feels a lot better he he's obviously much more expensive 657 00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:25,000 and than Rashad White but it it it feels better given that your 658 00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:29,520 your your conference championship odds are 15% and 659 00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:33,240 you know he he's playing well and and and the Rams offensive 660 00:39:33,240 --> 00:39:37,160 have been notably or it seems to me anyway notably better than 661 00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:40,480 than the Bucks that that that feels like an emotional take but 662 00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:44,360 I I think is right too. Yeah, no, I I agree with you. 663 00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:48,800 And the the hard part about the Rams for me is like, I really 664 00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:51,880 like them to help me get bye week heavy teams through. 665 00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:55,360 But I don't really want them when I have San Francisco, 666 00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:58,880 because they're gonna see San Francisco in round two pretty 667 00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:01,640 much no matter what happens. Right. 668 00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:04,360 Barring, if you're taking a, if you have a, if you have a one 669 00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:08,240 seed stack, you cannot take the six or seven, right? 670 00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:10,160 Just that that those are just. You're betting. 671 00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:12,000 Yeah, you're betting on something that's way too thin in 672 00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:14,600 my opinion. And so then it's like, all 673 00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:16,320 right. So now I'm pigeon holed into 674 00:40:16,720 --> 00:40:21,000 when I have Lamar and Raven stacks, that's when I can do the 675 00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:24,480 Ram stuff. And the the fickle thing about 676 00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:28,560 playoff best ball is like a lot of times you'd be in a room 677 00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:32,440 where doing the Lamar and Ravens build, everything falls 678 00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:36,080 beautifully and you're able to go like Tyron and Puka and 679 00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:38,240 you're like sick. This is like this is a 680 00:40:38,240 --> 00:40:40,200 powerhouse here. I'm going to be able to advance 681 00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:43,720 this thing and then you're in another room where everything 682 00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:45,720 goes off basically the exact same. 683 00:40:45,720 --> 00:40:48,280 You got the Lamar setup. You're you're looking good for 684 00:40:48,280 --> 00:40:50,760 your Super Bowl matchup. You're feeling strong about it. 685 00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:55,240 You know maybe your your Cowboys and and Ravens and then all of a 686 00:40:55,240 --> 00:40:57,960 sudden it's like and Kyron Williams just got taken at pick 687 00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:01,280 26. Fuck me like like this great 688 00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:05,120 plan I had is now unavailable and for me that's how I want 689 00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:08,800 most of my ram's exposure to come is through my Baltimore 690 00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:13,560 builds and God I'm just. I mean it's so funny. 691 00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:15,240 I do. Think that one of the the 692 00:41:15,240 --> 00:41:18,280 hardest things about play playoff basketball is the pivots 693 00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:23,600 When you get turned away there your your range of of acceptable 694 00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:27,600 options are much narrower. So figuring out a pivot under 695 00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:31,640 time pressure, it is. It's a skill you have to build 696 00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:34,440 and and and and. It's the most difficult thing, I 697 00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:36,560 think, and one of you have to do it. 698 00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:41,000 One of the biggest flaws I see even good people that are like 699 00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:43,680 sharp drafters, good, good best ball players overall. 700 00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:46,520 Might not be the best playoff best ball players, but one 701 00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:50,800 mistake I see people make all the time is they'll get blown up 702 00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:55,320 on what they want to do as plan A and they'll say forget 703 00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:58,680 everyone in this room, I'm gonna nuke this draft and I'm just 704 00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:01,680 gonna worry about advancing and min caching and. 705 00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:04,760 I thought, I thought you were describing me for a second but 706 00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:07,000 like yeah, that I that that's awful. 707 00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:09,720 Like that you you should just go to the casino. 708 00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:14,560 Yeah, the the the trying to min cache thing is like if you've 709 00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:17,920 ever I mean like now I'm telling you so like don't feel bad about 710 00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:19,520 it like just don't do it anymore. 711 00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:22,680 But if after you've heard this you're like I'm just gonna try 712 00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:26,480 and min cash like that is the stone worst thing you can do 713 00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:29,360 like and and you don't even have to take my word for it like just 714 00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:31,880 go do the expected value math on the tournament. 715 00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:36,040 In fact, I mean, let me just figure I I put this together 716 00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:39,200 'cause I was having this conversation with someone in a 717 00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:42,520 Discord channel. And send me the screenshot and 718 00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:45,400 I'll throw it up if you want. Here I'm just I'm sharing this 719 00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:53,720 and are we resumed. Let's let's zoom a little bit 720 00:42:53,720 --> 00:42:57,040 here. Hideaway. 721 00:42:58,040 --> 00:43:01,040 There we go. OK, so this is just like over 722 00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:05,440 here we have prize structure and all that stuff, but but what I 723 00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:08,280 did here is you've got your base advance rate. 724 00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:11,600 So this is purely just the probabilities of advancing based 725 00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:14,320 on the structure SO2 of 6/2 of 14 one of eight. 726 00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:15,240 Right. You're neutral. 727 00:43:15,240 --> 00:43:17,400 You're neutral. This is for the Gauntlet. 728 00:43:17,720 --> 00:43:20,720 And then I have adjusted advance rate and I just put this 729 00:43:20,720 --> 00:43:24,840 together to show as a thought experiment for like the min Cash 730 00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:29,360 Bros why it's so bad. And so for people that have 731 00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:31,760 followed some of the playoff basketball content, we've put 732 00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:35,480 out about how large an advantage you can have in round three. 733 00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:38,840 Where like you could quite literally get to 100% advance 734 00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:41,000 rate in your round three pods if you're playing the game 735 00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:44,400 correctly. And so like this 45% adjusted 736 00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:47,560 advance rate in my opinion is like that's probably like your 737 00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:50,600 worst case scenario for the teams that things go well for 738 00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:54,360 that you actually, you know get here and I I've got your 739 00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:57,120 adjusted advance rate out of round one all the way down at 740 00:43:57,680 --> 00:44:02,040 10% which is like that that would be like pretty close to 741 00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:03,760 what you're. Doing only your your very best 742 00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:06,440 teams are getting true. Yeah, that that would, that 743 00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:08,960 would be like what your advance rate would be taking a zero at 744 00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:12,160 quarterback every week. So like even if you do something 745 00:44:12,160 --> 00:44:17,720 like say 15%, so you're like I'm half, I'm less than half neutral 746 00:44:17,720 --> 00:44:19,880 advance rate. Like when you look at the 747 00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:22,800 expected value difference and we can we can even drop this a 748 00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:27,000 little and say that say instead of 45 we're at only .4. 749 00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:30,360 It's like you look at the EV and this is for Max. 750 00:44:30,360 --> 00:44:33,480 Entering both of these you're you're like dominating. 751 00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:37,880 You're like $1000 more EV playing the contest through 752 00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:40,760 optimizing for the later rounds and not worrying about your min 753 00:44:40,760 --> 00:44:43,800 cache. Like you can nuke this round one 754 00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:45,840 rate all the way into the ground. 755 00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:49,440 Like literally only having four active players, you know, and 756 00:44:49,440 --> 00:44:52,120 you'll still be plus EV. If you're just just for a 757 00:44:52,120 --> 00:44:56,400 demonstration put what if you put in 5% and 20%? 758 00:44:57,720 --> 00:45:00,280 055 percent in round one? Yeah. 759 00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:02,040 Oh God. I mean, I don't even think 760 00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:03,160 that's. Possible without life? 761 00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:04,400 I don't think it's possible either. 762 00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:06,120 And then oh. OK. 763 00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:10,560 OK. So 515 from 15 to 5, it's like, 764 00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:12,800 OK. So, yeah, OK. 765 00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:15,760 So that you you that that's 1/6 of the base rate. 766 00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:18,240 Sorry. Yeah, you'd have to. 767 00:45:18,240 --> 00:45:22,880 I mean, 'cause last Year 5% of teams advanced or would have 768 00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:25,960 advanced taking a zero at quarterback, like literal 0 769 00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:31,560 points and that was one of six. So like 10% feels extremely low 770 00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:34,200 to me for. Yeah, yeah, yeah, honestly, 15. 771 00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:37,200 If you're if you're out here building aggressive teams where 772 00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:40,000 you're like I'm building 5 bye week players and only five 773 00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:43,200 active, then you might be somewhere between 10 to 15% 774 00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:45,840 advance rate. But you you honestly. 775 00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:51,320 It's the It's the equivalent of 8% advance rate in in normal 776 00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:53,200 basketball. Yeah, yeah. 777 00:45:53,200 --> 00:45:56,760 Which is just like you can't really do like if if you looked 778 00:45:56,760 --> 00:46:01,200 at Easy's BBM sheet that he had in the deposit Kingdom, like 779 00:46:01,200 --> 00:46:04,000 even the worst people were like not at 8%. 780 00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:07,400 You know, like you, you could like and look at this even even 781 00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:10,400 if you only have 30% advance rate from the finals round, 782 00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:13,520 which like I promise you, if you play this contest the correct 783 00:46:13,520 --> 00:46:15,960 way of optimizing for the conference championship round. 784 00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:20,360 Like you are going to turn the cards over and have like however 785 00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:22,240 many teams you got to the finals. 786 00:46:22,240 --> 00:46:24,200 You're going to be like, I'm advancing all of these, but 787 00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:26,520 maybe two. You know, like it's going to be 788 00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:29,520 real good. Yeah, it's just so much of the 789 00:46:29,520 --> 00:46:32,560 EV is in that round. You know, like getting into the 790 00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:36,000 finals is all the EV. And so optimizing for the round 791 00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:39,040 where you can, like you literally can get yourself to 792 00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:41,560 100% here. And it's not like a, oh that 793 00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:44,280 happens once in a blue moon. It's like if you build the way 794 00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:47,360 I'm telling you to build, you could get this to 100%, you 795 00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:49,480 know, on a chunk of your your rosters. 796 00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:52,560 And and you're only you're only what you call it. 797 00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:56,600 You're only quote UN quote only you're it's not like this is is 798 00:46:56,600 --> 00:47:01,800 is that extreme you're you're probably what 2 1/2 X the the 799 00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:07,960 base rate and and and the logic there is that the logic is that 800 00:47:08,240 --> 00:47:13,120 most people who are building teams they're drafting teams 801 00:47:13,120 --> 00:47:17,120 with five or six like different drafted teams or or or maybe 802 00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:21,520 even 7 and so by the time they get to the conference 803 00:47:21,520 --> 00:47:25,480 championship they have like two players that three players that 804 00:47:26,120 --> 00:47:29,240 and if you're building if you're building the hub six or seven 805 00:47:29,240 --> 00:47:35,720 and and and most people have two or three am I in the range 806 00:47:35,720 --> 00:47:37,320 there. Yeah, you're you're nailing it 807 00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:40,720 and I'll show you I I first built this sheet out to try and 808 00:47:40,720 --> 00:47:43,840 like give myself some target thresholds for how I wanted My 809 00:47:43,840 --> 00:47:47,680 Portfolio to be constructed. And I'll tell you my goal and 810 00:47:47,760 --> 00:47:50,720 and how I initially built this sheet was that I was going to 811 00:47:50,720 --> 00:47:56,920 aim for something like this because I think 20% advance rate 812 00:47:56,920 --> 00:47:58,880 out of round one is very attainable. 813 00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:01,440 I think I have a pretty substantial edge on the field 814 00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:04,960 already by round two because there's lots of people that are 815 00:48:04,960 --> 00:48:09,040 doing like, oh, I took Dallas and I took the Rams or I took 816 00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:12,400 you know Miami and Kansas City and it's like those guys play 817 00:48:12,400 --> 00:48:15,360 each other round one, not for sure yet you know, but after we 818 00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:18,080 get team, we'll know. But it's like, yeah, those guys 819 00:48:18,080 --> 00:48:20,240 play each other round one bud, so you just naked a bunch of 820 00:48:20,240 --> 00:48:24,120 your equity and the. The other thing is what like 821 00:48:24,120 --> 00:48:27,920 even people who are drafting straight up at their their 822 00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:30,280 stocking teams, they're not thinking about the round two at 823 00:48:30,280 --> 00:48:32,560 all. Right, right. 824 00:48:32,640 --> 00:48:35,760 And so, yeah, I I felt like this is a pretty reasonable 825 00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:39,120 assessment of, like, I'm gonna be punting a little bit in round 826 00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:41,840 one. I'm gonna be much better than 827 00:48:41,840 --> 00:48:44,760 the field in round two and I should be able to pretty 828 00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:46,640 healthily dominate the field in round three. 829 00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:50,080 But even if I'm even if things don't go great for me, Like, 830 00:48:50,360 --> 00:48:53,040 when you when you kind of breakdown the math like this, 831 00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:55,800 you'll see why. Like, and I apologize. 832 00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:58,720 If when I explain this stuff, like, if I'm going over the same 833 00:48:58,720 --> 00:49:01,000 stuff over and over to people in the Discord, like, if I come 834 00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:04,480 across as a little frustrated, it's because I've spent so much 835 00:49:04,480 --> 00:49:08,360 time on this that, like, I know what the right answer is. 836 00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:11,640 And so when I'm like explaining it, it's easy. 837 00:49:11,640 --> 00:49:13,840 It's just human nature to get frustrated on something where 838 00:49:13,840 --> 00:49:16,840 like, you know the right answer and someone's like, but it's not 839 00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:19,960 that you're like, no, dude. Like, it's this and it's this 840 00:49:19,960 --> 00:49:24,040 for like 20 different reasons. Like it's not just this expected 841 00:49:24,040 --> 00:49:25,760 value calculation I'm showing you here. 842 00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:28,880 It's like all this other stuff that I've looked into as well. 843 00:49:28,880 --> 00:49:32,040 But anyway, I I wanted to share this 'cause I think that this 844 00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:36,840 format is, you know, probably the very largest edge that we 845 00:49:36,840 --> 00:49:41,000 have in in these games. And so, like if you spend the 846 00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:44,920 time to, you know, put in some effort and learn how to play the 847 00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:49,320 format optimally, I bet you still got a solid 2 years, three 848 00:49:49,320 --> 00:49:52,440 years before. The format is like much sharper 849 00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:55,520 and harder to beat. I think it'll get progressively 850 00:49:55,520 --> 00:49:58,680 sharper year over year because idiots like me are telling 851 00:49:58,680 --> 00:50:01,320 everyone what to do and ruining the edge. 852 00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:05,600 But, like, dude, when you think of the overall reach that, you 853 00:50:05,600 --> 00:50:09,840 know, content like this has compared to the field, like the 854 00:50:09,840 --> 00:50:11,680 field's still gonna be bad for a couple years. 855 00:50:11,680 --> 00:50:15,640 So I if you like, if you like playing basketball and drafting 856 00:50:15,640 --> 00:50:18,280 teams and you want it to be a profitable venture, like, I'll 857 00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:23,040 tell you I went extremely high risk, extremely high risk last 858 00:50:23,040 --> 00:50:27,360 season and had zero KC Philly matchups. 859 00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:28,880 Like almost. I think I might have had a 860 00:50:28,880 --> 00:50:32,080 couple in My Portfolio that I built but next to zero and I 861 00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:36,200 still profited. Like, it's just like I I made 862 00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:38,440 teams to the finals, so I profited, you know? 863 00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:46,560 I know we we we sort of covered that It's not a it's not a 864 00:50:46,560 --> 00:50:57,200 player take contest but I think it it is still interest it's 865 00:50:57,200 --> 00:51:02,880 it's I guess it's interesting to me that even over the last four 866 00:51:02,880 --> 00:51:06,960 games we sort of called it when David Montgomery was coming back 867 00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:10,560 from injury that Jameer Gibbs has played well enough to still 868 00:51:10,560 --> 00:51:14,400 be the starter and it's it's sort of nuts to me that he is 869 00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:21,800 still the starter and they're sort of treated like 1A1B in 870 00:51:21,800 --> 00:51:27,200 drafts and and and they sort of are a little bit but at the same 871 00:51:27,200 --> 00:51:30,640 time they're also sort of not like if if we're looking at if 872 00:51:30,640 --> 00:51:33,320 we're looking at this data and and and Jameer Gibbs is on the 873 00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:37,200 field 60% of the time like similar amount of time as 874 00:51:37,360 --> 00:51:47,120 Javante and and and James Conner like and that to me that's like 875 00:51:47,120 --> 00:51:54,160 you know maybe maybe I I I need to I I my before I I looked at 876 00:51:54,160 --> 00:51:58,200 this chart my my gut feeling was like OK I want to play a good 877 00:51:58,200 --> 00:52:01,680 bit of David Montgomery just because like I I feel like 878 00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:06,440 variance is going to return him back in my favor but Gibbs is a 879 00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:09,960 starter. Yeah, I one thing I want to look 880 00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:13,240 at, would you mind going to the backup chart so we can see David 881 00:52:13,240 --> 00:52:14,960 Montgomery? The thing that I'm looking at 882 00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:19,280 here is I want to look at their pass blocking snaps for each of 883 00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:22,440 them. And so, yeah, so here if you 884 00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:25,680 look at now the the bar looks smaller cause Montgomery's out 885 00:52:25,680 --> 00:52:28,400 there for less. But I'm I'm curious as to. 886 00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:31,440 Just under 40% is his productive. 887 00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:39,200 And Gibbs Gibbs is somewhere. Oh, OK, you're right. 888 00:52:39,200 --> 00:52:43,080 Gibbs is somewhere out there like his his like fantasy 889 00:52:43,080 --> 00:52:47,560 productive. So Russia's plus roots is 50% 890 00:52:48,200 --> 00:52:53,560 and his his his actual total rushes is 20 and then Montgomery 891 00:52:53,560 --> 00:52:56,640 is a little over 20. So yeah, you're right. 892 00:52:56,640 --> 00:52:58,680 You're right. They're they're close. 893 00:52:58,760 --> 00:53:00,720 But I do. I agree with you that, like 894 00:53:00,720 --> 00:53:04,360 Gibbs is the one you wanna own in these fantasy right? 895 00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:06,840 Given. That they're so close in price. 896 00:53:07,320 --> 00:53:11,480 The the spot that I would say you want Montgomery is when 897 00:53:11,480 --> 00:53:16,560 you're playing Lions to the Super Bowl, because then you're 898 00:53:16,880 --> 00:53:19,800 getting some positive game scripts in there and you know 899 00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:22,520 that Montgomery is the guy they like to salt the game away with. 900 00:53:22,520 --> 00:53:26,600 Like that's their big power. Establish the run type back 901 00:53:26,840 --> 00:53:29,880 where Dan Campbell wants to bite kneecaps off and run it down 902 00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:33,840 their throat so we we can go back to the starter chart now 903 00:53:33,840 --> 00:53:36,480 and then. Also, if you wanted to share our 904 00:53:36,480 --> 00:53:39,520 smiling faces with the audience, I'm sure they're missing them 905 00:53:39,520 --> 00:53:41,280 here. Oh, oh, we are hitting. 906 00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:44,760 I'm, I'm, I'm just a I'm a a stream yard amateur. 907 00:53:44,920 --> 00:53:47,400 And that's that's OK. But I I was. 908 00:53:47,480 --> 00:53:49,480 On that out. I was spending all that off 909 00:53:49,480 --> 00:53:52,680 camera time picking my nose and doing things like that, so that 910 00:53:52,680 --> 00:53:56,600 was great. But yeah, as far as other backs 911 00:53:56,600 --> 00:54:00,240 that I think are interesting, you know, as we head into the 912 00:54:00,240 --> 00:54:05,160 playoff contest type season, if the Colts make Jonathan Taylor's 913 00:54:05,160 --> 00:54:08,200 kind of interesting, you know, in playoff basketball, he'll be 914 00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:10,720 a last round guy. Still, you know, maybe ninth 915 00:54:10,720 --> 00:54:13,800 round, but you'll you'll get them for free. 916 00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:20,760 And the thing that I really like about this, the AFC, is you can 917 00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:24,600 end up with either the Colts or the Texans playing the Bills. 918 00:54:25,280 --> 00:54:28,280 And I know that the Bills have been hotter lately. 919 00:54:28,280 --> 00:54:30,680 You know they've had, they've kicked the shit out of the 920 00:54:30,680 --> 00:54:33,040 Cowboys. They beat the Chiefs like you 921 00:54:33,040 --> 00:54:34,440 know they're they're running hot. 922 00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:38,440 They barely beat the Easton stick LED Chargers though, like 923 00:54:39,040 --> 00:54:40,960 I'm. You're not a jerk or not. 924 00:54:41,160 --> 00:54:43,880 No, I'm not as convinced as everyone else that the like 925 00:54:44,800 --> 00:54:47,800 tagline that you'll hear around the Bills is they might not have 926 00:54:47,800 --> 00:54:50,600 the best playoff probability, but we know they can make a run 927 00:54:50,600 --> 00:54:53,480 if they get in there. And to that I'm like really? 928 00:54:53,600 --> 00:54:56,560 Do we know that they can make a run like and they? 929 00:54:56,560 --> 00:54:59,480 Could I mean to be fair, their conference championship odds are 930 00:54:59,480 --> 00:55:03,680 27% which is that that's pretty high. 931 00:55:04,120 --> 00:55:07,920 Oh yeah, no, for for sure. They they absolutely, like all 932 00:55:07,920 --> 00:55:09,840 of the odds say that they can make a run. 933 00:55:09,840 --> 00:55:13,800 They're basically The thing is in the AFC it's like there's the 934 00:55:13,800 --> 00:55:16,120 Ravens and then it's like a four horse race. 935 00:55:16,120 --> 00:55:19,680 It's like the Browns, the Bills, the Chiefs and the Dolphins are 936 00:55:19,680 --> 00:55:23,080 all close enough that it's like it's pick your winner you know. 937 00:55:23,080 --> 00:55:28,040 And so for me I kind of like the Bills as a potential upset spot. 938 00:55:28,640 --> 00:55:32,160 I don't think that the. I really don't think the Colts 939 00:55:32,200 --> 00:55:35,480 have the ability to upset them. Like, I want to put a little 940 00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:38,320 respect on the Bill's name there, but like you're telling 941 00:55:38,320 --> 00:55:43,880 me that if the Texans go into Buffalo and CJ Stroud, you know, 942 00:55:44,040 --> 00:55:46,480 top five quarterback in the league now better than Josh 943 00:55:46,480 --> 00:55:49,000 Allen, that's just in there to tilt Liam. 944 00:55:49,920 --> 00:55:52,920 But CCJ Stroud goes into Buffalo. 945 00:55:52,920 --> 00:55:55,280 You don't think they have like a snowball's chance And hell of an 946 00:55:55,280 --> 00:55:58,360 upset, 'cause I that's a spot that I kind of like. 947 00:55:59,400 --> 00:56:01,200 Yeah, yeah. And the Colts upset them last 948 00:56:01,200 --> 00:56:04,920 year, didn't they, In in regular season I I remember it was a 949 00:56:04,920 --> 00:56:09,280 week where John and Taylor was like $10,000 on. 950 00:56:10,080 --> 00:56:13,480 Or was that the year before? Yeah, it was the. 951 00:56:13,560 --> 00:56:14,680 Sorry. It's got to be the year. 952 00:56:14,680 --> 00:56:17,320 Before. It was the year before, and it 953 00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:22,680 was the one where the Colts weren't actually that good and 954 00:56:22,680 --> 00:56:27,400 and the Bills were, were like they they had their they had 955 00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:31,040 their championship squad together, and the Colts upset 956 00:56:31,040 --> 00:56:34,000 them just because they couldn't. They couldn't stop JT. 957 00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:39,120 Yeah. And I I could definitely see you 958 00:56:40,240 --> 00:56:43,880 you know I I just think all of the really this is more like a 959 00:56:43,880 --> 00:56:47,640 broad AFC thing rather than I'm not just trying to pick on the 960 00:56:47,640 --> 00:56:49,200 bills. I just think every team in the 961 00:56:49,200 --> 00:56:53,640 AFC outside the Ravens really have quite a few warts on them 962 00:56:53,800 --> 00:56:58,640 right Like and and so I think that for me the way that I play 963 00:56:58,640 --> 00:57:03,480 the AFC is especially now all the playoff like seeding is 964 00:57:03,480 --> 00:57:07,800 still a little ambiguous is that the upsets will be more likely 965 00:57:07,800 --> 00:57:10,800 to come on the AFC side than they would be to come on the NFC 966 00:57:10,800 --> 00:57:13,080 side. So then I'm willing you know 967 00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:17,040 like for example you could very reasonably have a six and seven 968 00:57:17,040 --> 00:57:22,200 team both win on the AFC because that's you know Dolphins or 969 00:57:22,200 --> 00:57:25,560 Bills are going to be the six and then the seven is going to 970 00:57:25,560 --> 00:57:30,040 be you know Houston or Indy most likely maybe Pittsburgh and some 971 00:57:30,040 --> 00:57:32,560 outcomes in which case like good luck on getting an upset. 972 00:57:32,560 --> 00:57:36,640 But you know it it it's to me it's not that outside the realm 973 00:57:36,640 --> 00:57:39,400 of possibility to say Dolphins upset the Chiefs. 974 00:57:39,720 --> 00:57:43,160 Texans upset the Bills. And all of a sudden you're 975 00:57:43,160 --> 00:57:47,680 looking at like, OK, I actually could have taken the, you know, 976 00:57:47,680 --> 00:57:51,640 the six seed Dolphins and planned on them not running into 977 00:57:52,320 --> 00:57:56,520 the Ravens in round two because I played it like the Texans were 978 00:57:56,520 --> 00:57:58,960 going to upset the Bills. So I'm willing to do that on the 979 00:57:58,960 --> 00:58:02,360 NFC more than I'm willing to do it or willing to do that on the 980 00:58:02,360 --> 00:58:05,120 AFC more than I'm willing to do it on the NFC. 981 00:58:05,520 --> 00:58:09,560 Now, it's not to say that the Cowboys are some unbeatable 982 00:58:09,560 --> 00:58:12,440 force, like it would be the most Cowboys thing of all time for 983 00:58:12,440 --> 00:58:15,240 them to lose at home in embarrassing fashion in week one 984 00:58:15,240 --> 00:58:18,240 of the play offs. But I think that that's way more 985 00:58:18,240 --> 00:58:22,360 likely if they run into the Rams who would need to win this 986 00:58:22,360 --> 00:58:29,600 weekend and and maintain their seating versus the Packers or or 987 00:58:29,600 --> 00:58:35,000 win this weekend and get the the seating versus the Packers, who 988 00:58:35,640 --> 00:58:39,320 you know, if the Packers beat the Bears and the Rams lose, 989 00:58:39,720 --> 00:58:42,800 then now the Packers move up to the sixth seed and the Rams are 990 00:58:42,800 --> 00:58:45,400 down to the seventh seed and face the Cowboys. 991 00:58:45,400 --> 00:58:48,200 So that's just one thing where I'm considering where I'm like 992 00:58:48,200 --> 00:58:51,360 Cowboys probably don't get upset by the Packers, but like getting 993 00:58:51,360 --> 00:58:53,880 upset by the Rams is definitely in the range of outcomes. 994 00:58:53,880 --> 00:58:57,560 So I think another way to mix Rams in, like if you're like me 995 00:58:57,560 --> 00:58:59,680 and you're kind of underweight Rams 'cause you're waiting for 996 00:58:59,680 --> 00:59:02,640 playoff odds to consolidate. A good way to do it is when you 997 00:59:02,640 --> 00:59:06,400 fade Cowboys you could do some Rams you know because I think 998 00:59:06,400 --> 00:59:09,080 they're they're probably someone in the in the leg up. 999 00:59:09,080 --> 00:59:12,080 Discord is pointing out that right now the probability if you 1000 00:59:12,080 --> 00:59:15,720 pull up your playoff odd sheet, it's got, oh, actually I don't 1001 00:59:15,720 --> 00:59:17,880 think that it's got the the seating. 1002 00:59:18,160 --> 00:59:21,560 Oh yeah it does it. It has it has Rams right now 1003 00:59:21,560 --> 00:59:26,720 it's 91% to maintain their seed. But I believe that Spike Week 1004 00:59:26,720 --> 00:59:30,880 ran their simulations for that with the scores and odds that 1005 00:59:30,880 --> 00:59:35,200 they they source from scores and odds prior to all of the news of 1006 00:59:35,200 --> 00:59:37,360 the 49ers and Rams resting players. 1007 00:59:37,720 --> 00:59:41,760 And so they didn't have, you know, the new lines that are 1008 00:59:41,760 --> 00:59:45,080 considering the fact that it's now Carson Wentz starting at 1009 00:59:45,080 --> 00:59:48,760 quarterback versus Sam Darnold and you know the the Island of 1010 00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:50,320 Misfit Toys playing in that game. 1011 00:59:50,320 --> 00:59:54,800 So I do believe that those odds probably move a little bit down 1012 00:59:54,800 --> 00:59:57,920 from Rams being 91% to maintain that seed. 1013 00:59:58,680 --> 01:00:01,200 So that's just some some food for thought there. 1014 01:00:01,920 --> 01:00:10,160 So we can So this spread right now is 3 1/2 -, 3 1/2 49ers. 1015 01:00:14,000 --> 01:00:15,800 Yeah. And I'll, I'll pull up what I 1016 01:00:15,800 --> 01:00:22,640 was, what I was seeing. Here so they open as 4 1/2 and I 1017 01:00:22,640 --> 01:00:31,920 think. So, so this this user in the leg 1018 01:00:31,920 --> 01:00:36,800 up, Discord shared. I want to say that this was from 1019 01:00:36,800 --> 01:00:40,800 Circa. He shared that if you parlayed 1020 01:00:40,800 --> 01:00:46,080 49ers money line and Packers money line, which is what you 1021 01:00:46,080 --> 01:00:48,080 would what you would need to have happen, right for the 1022 01:00:48,080 --> 01:00:53,760 seating to change, that's plus 145 S happens like 40% of the 1023 01:00:53,760 --> 01:00:57,440 time according to the odds currently on Circa. 1024 01:00:58,360 --> 01:01:02,760 So I would just say you know that that 91% probability for 1025 01:01:02,760 --> 01:01:07,840 the Rams to face Detroit here is probably closer to like 60%. 1026 01:01:08,160 --> 01:01:13,720 The other thing is I think that. And so where is it? 1027 01:01:15,560 --> 01:01:17,360 Tell me if I need to switch off this. 1028 01:01:17,640 --> 01:01:19,480 No, no, this is publicly available. 1029 01:01:19,480 --> 01:01:20,160 Yep. Yep. 1030 01:01:22,120 --> 01:01:28,120 So 91 and 9. So yeah, they they actually, 1031 01:01:28,560 --> 01:01:32,960 they're giving them 0% chance to be anything but the the six or 1032 01:01:32,960 --> 01:01:34,680 seven seed. 'Cause that's that's how it 1033 01:01:34,680 --> 01:01:36,760 would play out. They can't be anything other 1034 01:01:37,080 --> 01:01:41,160 because of the tiebreakers. I believe that Green Bay holds 1035 01:01:41,160 --> 01:01:45,560 tiebreaker over the Rams and holds tiebreaker over New 1036 01:01:45,560 --> 01:01:48,920 Orleans. So then what? 1037 01:01:48,920 --> 01:01:52,400 So, so then the rounds could feasibly be the seven seed, 1038 01:01:52,600 --> 01:01:56,200 yeah? Yeah, very, very feasibly this 1039 01:01:56,200 --> 01:02:00,920 this user the the plus 145 implying about 40% implied odds 1040 01:02:00,920 --> 01:02:03,320 of that. For me that's probably a little 1041 01:02:03,320 --> 01:02:06,680 high because I think that that's assuming they've got the 49ers 1042 01:02:06,680 --> 01:02:11,520 at like -200 and that's like for for money line, which to me 1043 01:02:11,520 --> 01:02:13,680 doesn't seem right in a game of backups. 1044 01:02:13,680 --> 01:02:15,360 I think you're probably much closer to. 1045 01:02:15,360 --> 01:02:18,960 OK, gotcha. And so for for me, the way I've 1046 01:02:18,960 --> 01:02:22,560 kind of been drafting around it is like sure it's not 91% 1047 01:02:22,560 --> 01:02:24,960 anymore, but it's also not as bad as 60%. 1048 01:02:25,120 --> 01:02:29,520 You're probably somewhere in like the 70 to 80% range that LA 1049 01:02:29,520 --> 01:02:33,320 holds on to that six seed because you're also, you know, 1050 01:02:33,360 --> 01:02:35,800 it's not like Green Bay's been a powerhouse they they still got 1051 01:02:35,800 --> 01:02:40,320 to beat the bears, you know. So anyway that's that's 1052 01:02:40,320 --> 01:02:42,800 important for people to note especially if you're using our 1053 01:02:42,800 --> 01:02:45,800 tool over on leg up and you see that 91%. 1054 01:02:46,240 --> 01:02:48,360 I just want you to know like hey, the way you know where 1055 01:02:48,360 --> 01:02:51,680 we're sourcing those odds from. I think ran that earlier this 1056 01:02:51,680 --> 01:02:54,080 week before all this news and they'll probably rerun it. 1057 01:02:54,600 --> 01:02:57,760 So that should get updated. But like if you were drafting 1058 01:02:57,800 --> 01:03:02,400 right now while you're listening to this and it's still 91%, just 1059 01:03:02,400 --> 01:03:05,160 be willing to IKB it a little bit and have a little bit more 1060 01:03:05,160 --> 01:03:07,480 uncertainty there with how. You're doing they've they've 1061 01:03:07,480 --> 01:03:10,240 changed it to 90%. OK. 1062 01:03:10,920 --> 01:03:13,240 Yeah. So I I would assume just my 1063 01:03:13,240 --> 01:03:15,600 understanding of the way that their simulations are pulling 1064 01:03:15,600 --> 01:03:18,960 data, that the scores and odds data that they're grabbing from 1065 01:03:18,960 --> 01:03:23,840 that is not not current with the money lines, but I bet you, I 1066 01:03:23,880 --> 01:03:25,880 bet you it'll probably be updated like tomorrow or 1067 01:03:25,880 --> 01:03:29,480 something so. That that makes sense. 1068 01:03:35,080 --> 01:03:36,560 I'm sad. Thanks for joining us, Hope. 1069 01:03:36,960 --> 01:03:41,240 Yeah, happy to see Hope in the chat delivering all these 1070 01:03:41,320 --> 01:03:45,440 fantastic playoff contest tests. Also shout out to Hope for like 1071 01:03:45,440 --> 01:03:49,040 one of the best quality of life changes I've seen on Underdog of 1072 01:03:49,040 --> 01:03:52,080 showing the advance rate structure on the little 1073 01:03:52,080 --> 01:03:54,520 tournament card when you open up a tournament now. 1074 01:03:54,800 --> 01:03:58,320 Like if you open up the Mitten 3 it says one of six advanced to 1075 01:03:58,320 --> 01:04:02,920 round two which so nice to not have to click into the rules and 1076 01:04:02,920 --> 01:04:05,920 read through like OK what is it to advance each round? 1077 01:04:06,000 --> 01:04:09,360 So yeah, yeah, that that is a that's a big, big change. 1078 01:04:09,480 --> 01:04:10,360 Good. Good stuff. 1079 01:04:10,360 --> 01:04:11,520 Hope. Yeah. 1080 01:04:11,560 --> 01:04:14,640 Super happy underdog. Hiring Hope and Numi was like 1081 01:04:14,720 --> 01:04:17,520 one of the things that gave me the largest boost of confidence 1082 01:04:17,520 --> 01:04:19,320 in the platform. Honestly, it's like, all right, 1083 01:04:19,360 --> 01:04:22,320 I I know that Hope and Numi know, like, what would the 1084 01:04:22,400 --> 01:04:23,840 player experience. Yeah. 1085 01:04:24,240 --> 01:04:26,160 So that that was cool. Thank you Hope. 1086 01:04:28,240 --> 01:04:34,240 And so is there any, what are we missing here with the Andre 1087 01:04:34,240 --> 01:04:40,720 Swift down here at just over just just a title under 50% snap 1088 01:04:40,720 --> 01:04:42,800 share? You may want to pull up the 1089 01:04:42,800 --> 01:04:46,600 chart while we talk about it. Oh, Oh yeah, yeah, you're right. 1090 01:04:46,600 --> 01:04:48,040 You're fine. We've been we've been bouncing 1091 01:04:48,040 --> 01:04:49,640 around. I'm, I'm like giving you 1092 01:04:50,000 --> 01:04:53,080 difficult hosting duty here. So I just. 1093 01:04:53,680 --> 01:04:57,400 I just suck. So Swift had a little bit of, 1094 01:04:58,240 --> 01:04:59,640 you know, he had some injury stuff. 1095 01:04:59,760 --> 01:05:03,320 I want to say a couple weeks ago you got a higher Kenneth 1096 01:05:03,320 --> 01:05:08,280 Gainwell game, didn't we or Gainwell got more of the snaps 1097 01:05:09,160 --> 01:05:11,440 and you can, you can actually see that on Gainwell here. 1098 01:05:11,440 --> 01:05:17,280 He's like now slightly above 40% and so I think that's part of 1099 01:05:17,280 --> 01:05:21,520 it. But man, the like, if we want to 1100 01:05:21,520 --> 01:05:27,120 kind of get into the the knowing ball film grinder stuff, I think 1101 01:05:27,120 --> 01:05:31,360 that the lion's concerns around DeAndre Swift of like he's never 1102 01:05:31,360 --> 01:05:35,400 healthy, he's not available might be more true than I gave 1103 01:05:35,400 --> 01:05:38,400 them credit for. Where I just thought the Lions 1104 01:05:38,400 --> 01:05:42,320 are a boomer org and they are making these dumb, like football 1105 01:05:42,320 --> 01:05:45,680 guy type decisions where they're ignoring the talent of this 1106 01:05:45,680 --> 01:05:48,600 player because he had some bad injury luck. 1107 01:05:49,080 --> 01:05:52,000 But as Swift's efficiency has kind of waned and his 1108 01:05:52,000 --> 01:05:55,360 explosiveness has waned and you know we're even, we're seeing 1109 01:05:55,360 --> 01:05:58,240 his snaps and usage go down here. 1110 01:05:58,440 --> 01:06:02,840 It seems like there might have been something to what the Lions 1111 01:06:02,840 --> 01:06:08,040 were kind of implying about Swift, where, yeah, this guy 1112 01:06:08,040 --> 01:06:11,960 just can't really carry like a full workload in the NFL and 1113 01:06:11,960 --> 01:06:13,680 still be the best version of himself. 1114 01:06:13,800 --> 01:06:16,120 It's not like I think he's a great player. 1115 01:06:16,120 --> 01:06:17,640 Like he's a awesome running back. 1116 01:06:17,640 --> 01:06:20,520 He's super electric and explosive when he's when he's 1117 01:06:20,520 --> 01:06:22,880 himself. But he hasn't looked like 1118 01:06:22,880 --> 01:06:27,640 himself in these last few weeks, so who knows It maybe it's a 1119 01:06:27,640 --> 01:06:29,640 thing where he's getting better from it, Maybe. 1120 01:06:29,640 --> 01:06:34,160 But, you know, we're at the end of a pretty long grind of a 1121 01:06:34,160 --> 01:06:37,480 season for these guys. So right, the the fresh legs 1122 01:06:37,480 --> 01:06:40,440 thing is kind of a meme, but there's also definitely some 1123 01:06:40,440 --> 01:06:44,000 truth to it, you know? So I think that might be what 1124 01:06:44,000 --> 01:06:45,480 we're seeing with Swift. And he's a guy. 1125 01:06:45,480 --> 01:06:50,160 It's definitely concerned given given Swift's price and and then 1126 01:06:50,160 --> 01:06:54,400 he's going alongside some like start, definitely starting 1127 01:06:54,400 --> 01:06:56,880 running backs. I'll say he falls a ton. 1128 01:06:56,920 --> 01:07:00,680 Now I I won't be surprised. The thing about the underdog ADP 1129 01:07:00,680 --> 01:07:03,200 updating is it is rather slow and it's got a lot of the 1130 01:07:03,240 --> 01:07:05,400 historical components. Yeah, that's fair. 1131 01:07:05,960 --> 01:07:09,880 He's he's kind of anchored where he was like it took a long time 1132 01:07:09,880 --> 01:07:12,680 for Jarek McKinnon to drop down to becoming like nearly 1133 01:07:12,680 --> 01:07:17,040 undrafted after he went on IR. So I would say by the time the 1134 01:07:17,040 --> 01:07:20,560 contest closes, you'll see Swift in a more appropriate range, and 1135 01:07:20,560 --> 01:07:23,280 I bet you that he he lands somewhere right below Gus 1136 01:07:23,280 --> 01:07:27,280 Edwards would be my guess. Yeah I that that makes sense 1137 01:07:28,120 --> 01:07:32,960 that makes sense for sure. I I I think we've we've sort of 1138 01:07:32,960 --> 01:07:34,520 covered everyone on this chart that's. 1139 01:07:35,280 --> 01:07:38,520 Yeah, let's let's get to the the efficiency charts 'cause there's 1140 01:07:38,520 --> 01:07:40,440 a few other takeaways we can have here. 1141 01:07:40,440 --> 01:07:44,520 Number one is that everyone who was drafting Bruce Hall was the 1142 01:07:44,520 --> 01:07:47,640 most fucking right you could possibly be because this is the 1143 01:07:47,640 --> 01:07:51,720 best player in the NFL. Like, this guy is so good. 1144 01:07:52,040 --> 01:07:54,120 You know, there's one other running back that's close to 1145 01:07:54,120 --> 01:07:56,680 Breece Hall, and his name's Christian McCaffrey, but Breece 1146 01:07:56,680 --> 01:07:59,000 Hall is that dude. I cannot. 1147 01:07:59,000 --> 01:08:00,280 I'm going to ruin the price. Right now. 1148 01:08:00,280 --> 01:08:02,280 It's Breece Hall, 101 for me next season. 1149 01:08:02,560 --> 01:08:05,800 If you're not on board, you know I'll see you when I got my 100%. 1150 01:08:07,760 --> 01:08:10,240 But no, I I needed to victory lap Breece Hall once more. 1151 01:08:10,240 --> 01:08:12,720 And the fact that he was like a guy that you kind of needed in 1152 01:08:12,720 --> 01:08:14,400 the playoffs felt pretty good, too. 1153 01:08:14,880 --> 01:08:17,040 Right. Wish I could have won some more 1154 01:08:17,040 --> 01:08:18,399 money with him. That would have been even 1155 01:08:18,399 --> 01:08:20,880 cooler. But you know what's better than 1156 01:08:20,880 --> 01:08:22,680 waiting money? Draco is being right. 1157 01:08:23,520 --> 01:08:25,800 So that was fun. But you know, I. 1158 01:08:25,960 --> 01:08:29,359 I had the same same experience and I I think that is 1159 01:08:29,359 --> 01:08:34,080 interesting though, and you're honestly Breeze Hall over CMC 1160 01:08:34,080 --> 01:08:38,960 next year. I don't think I'll need to be. 1161 01:08:39,040 --> 01:08:40,439 You know like, no, no, you won't. 1162 01:08:40,439 --> 01:08:42,840 Market will force me to be so No I I won't be. 1163 01:08:43,200 --> 01:08:47,080 But if you're if you're asking me legitimately like if you're 1164 01:08:47,080 --> 01:08:51,160 saying be 100% honest to me you know gun to your head you have 1165 01:08:51,160 --> 01:08:53,680 to tell the truth. Who do you think is the better 1166 01:08:54,040 --> 01:08:57,520 player at playing running back in the NFLI bet you dollars to 1167 01:08:57,520 --> 01:09:00,040 Donuts you put Bruce Hall in the 49ers offense. 1168 01:09:00,040 --> 01:09:03,680 He's 200 scrimmage yards every single day like, and it's no 1169 01:09:03,680 --> 01:09:08,520 doubt you know like that's a that guy's a monster CM CS and 1170 01:09:08,520 --> 01:09:10,319 it's not to take anything away from CMC. 1171 01:09:10,319 --> 01:09:13,160 That guy's what you know generational talent. 1172 01:09:13,240 --> 01:09:16,720 Immediate Hall of Famer. You know like absolute all time 1173 01:09:16,720 --> 01:09:19,080 GOAT like up there with Ladainian Tomlinson. 1174 01:09:19,080 --> 01:09:21,279 You know, Marshall Faulk like level of incredible running 1175 01:09:21,279 --> 01:09:25,200 back. Could it be then CMC 101, Breeze 1176 01:09:25,200 --> 01:09:27,920 Hall 102? I don't think it'll go that way. 1177 01:09:27,920 --> 01:09:31,600 I think you got a lot of vividness from some of these 1178 01:09:31,600 --> 01:09:35,080 wide receivers, you know, going off where like, I think you're 1179 01:09:35,080 --> 01:09:38,279 going to get, you know, CD Lamb and I don't, I don't think 1180 01:09:38,279 --> 01:09:40,920 you're going to be able to get Justin Jefferson out of the top. 1181 01:09:41,760 --> 01:09:43,439 No, you won't. You won't. 1182 01:09:43,439 --> 01:09:45,640 You're right. So I I think you got CD. 1183 01:09:45,640 --> 01:09:49,439 Lamb is like made himself a place in the top five. 1184 01:09:49,439 --> 01:09:51,439 With the way that he finished this season, which is a huge 1185 01:09:51,680 --> 01:09:55,640 drummer to me, I was like, God, can you just dud Week 17 so I 1186 01:09:55,640 --> 01:09:58,680 can have you at affordable prices next season. 1187 01:09:58,680 --> 01:10:02,000 But yeah, I think if we're, if we're looking next season, it's 1188 01:10:02,000 --> 01:10:06,360 probably CMC 101 probably like I I think what we'll have this 1189 01:10:06,360 --> 01:10:09,920 next year though is less of a 'cause this year it felt really 1190 01:10:09,920 --> 01:10:14,720 like it's always Jefferson 101, it's always Chase 102 and it's 1191 01:10:14,800 --> 01:10:18,960 almost always CMC 103, right. I think we'll have a lot more 1192 01:10:19,640 --> 01:10:23,240 variability in the guys that are in that first tier like. 1193 01:10:23,360 --> 01:10:28,240 But I I think that top six is going to be something like CMC, 1194 01:10:28,240 --> 01:10:31,320 Justin Jefferson, CD Lamb. You still probably get Jamar 1195 01:10:31,320 --> 01:10:35,760 Chase up there. And then, in my opinion, you 1196 01:10:35,800 --> 01:10:40,040 probably should have Garrett Wilson in there too if if The 1197 01:10:40,080 --> 01:10:43,360 Jets are looking like they'll have a quarterback because of 1198 01:10:43,360 --> 01:10:46,640 how. But I I keep shout out shout out 1199 01:10:46,720 --> 01:10:50,040 with with no quarterback, yeah, I I think there's a good chance 1200 01:10:50,120 --> 01:10:54,560 that this could be a year where like like the 22 season where if 1201 01:10:54,560 --> 01:10:58,360 you go 101 through 106, you feel so good about your first. 1202 01:10:58,520 --> 01:11:01,920 Pick and that type tyree still has to be in there, you know. 1203 01:11:02,800 --> 01:11:06,920 But 107 or later, I I think people might feel pretty like 1204 01:11:07,320 --> 01:11:10,680 they they've lost out because that top six is so good. 1205 01:11:11,160 --> 01:11:15,200 I I agree that the that early tier now the fun the fun part is 1206 01:11:15,200 --> 01:11:18,160 gonna be you know that back half of the first round I bet. 1207 01:11:18,160 --> 01:11:21,760 I mean just like we saw this year, that's where like. 1208 01:11:21,880 --> 01:11:23,160 All the That's where the money was made. 1209 01:11:23,160 --> 01:11:25,480 Came from, yeah, that's that's where the money was. 1210 01:11:25,480 --> 01:11:29,240 And I to me, that kind of feels like that's gonna be the case 1211 01:11:29,240 --> 01:11:31,840 again, because it's when you have a tier of players that 1212 01:11:31,840 --> 01:11:34,760 everyone's so confident it should be priced above them like 1213 01:11:34,800 --> 01:11:36,480 they're usually right. The market's pretty good at 1214 01:11:36,480 --> 01:11:39,200 that. And then every next tier that 1215 01:11:39,200 --> 01:11:42,640 you go down, like the uncertainty increases. 1216 01:11:43,080 --> 01:11:47,000 And when you get uncertainty surrounding pricing players that 1217 01:11:47,000 --> 01:11:51,040 are still really, really good fantasy assets, getting the 1218 01:11:51,040 --> 01:11:54,160 correct ones of that bunch can be the thing where it's like, 1219 01:11:54,360 --> 01:11:57,040 yeah, I just want all the money, 'cause I went CD Lamb, Alman, 1220 01:11:57,040 --> 01:12:02,720 raw, you know, right. But to to take it back to stuff 1221 01:12:02,720 --> 01:12:06,120 that can be useful to people maybe in FFPC contest or playoff 1222 01:12:06,120 --> 01:12:09,400 best ball. We do see some guys that are in 1223 01:12:09,400 --> 01:12:13,160 this elite category. I got an interesting one for 1224 01:12:13,160 --> 01:12:15,600 you. Packers make the playoff, let's 1225 01:12:15,600 --> 01:12:18,120 say. What are we doing with Aaron 1226 01:12:18,120 --> 01:12:20,400 Jones here? Who's in this 20 expected 1227 01:12:20,400 --> 01:12:27,640 fantasy points category? And that is interesting. 1228 01:12:27,880 --> 01:12:34,960 And he sort of pops as the OK you you've stacked a bunch of 1229 01:12:35,160 --> 01:12:38,760 you've stacked a bunch of Ravens you're worried about you're 1230 01:12:38,760 --> 01:12:43,240 you're having enough players to advance out of round one and 1231 01:12:45,520 --> 01:12:49,960 Aaron Aaron Jones is free there and that that that that feels 1232 01:12:49,960 --> 01:12:53,360 like the appropriate thing where I I don't feel like I don't feel 1233 01:12:53,360 --> 01:12:56,560 any confident I need confidence that the Packers make a run in 1234 01:12:56,560 --> 01:13:03,760 the playoffs and but like comb comb the playoffs if they're in 1235 01:13:03,760 --> 01:13:08,560 the round one any of the let's rest Aaron Jones because he's 1236 01:13:08,560 --> 01:13:11,640 old or whatever that that goes out the window it's like we we 1237 01:13:11,760 --> 01:13:14,600 we really need to win this game you're you're getting a lot of 1238 01:13:14,600 --> 01:13:19,880 snaps you're playing. I've got AII kind of want to 1239 01:13:19,880 --> 01:13:22,680 look at Aaron Jones through the lens of the FFPC Playoff 1240 01:13:22,680 --> 01:13:26,280 challenge, 'cause I I know that you have some really good 1241 01:13:26,280 --> 01:13:30,040 insights there as well. So let's just say that it ends 1242 01:13:30,040 --> 01:13:36,480 up being let's do Packers and we'll, we'll say it stays 1243 01:13:36,480 --> 01:13:38,440 Packers. Cowboys like it is right now, 1244 01:13:38,800 --> 01:13:41,480 right? So it's Packers, Cowboys, What 1245 01:13:41,480 --> 01:13:43,560 are you, How are you playing the Packers? 1246 01:13:43,560 --> 01:13:47,560 Are you full fade? Are you soft fade or would you 1247 01:13:47,560 --> 01:13:50,440 do? I mean, what what other options 1248 01:13:50,440 --> 01:13:56,000 do you think are viable? Here so and OK so we're shifting 1249 01:13:56,000 --> 01:14:00,920 to the FFPC and playoff tournament and and and for 1250 01:14:00,920 --> 01:14:07,240 contacts you have to pick you have to play 14 players and two 1251 01:14:07,240 --> 01:14:09,760 of them are kickers or say one of them is a kicker one of them 1252 01:14:09,760 --> 01:14:14,560 is a defence so and they're considered soft fade and then 1253 01:14:15,120 --> 01:14:19,960 two teams you have to select and that you're you you you you are 1254 01:14:19,960 --> 01:14:25,520 not picking a player from and and generally speaking the soft 1255 01:14:25,520 --> 01:14:29,400 fade and hard fade they're the ones that you're picking not to 1256 01:14:29,400 --> 01:14:37,720 advance on to the second round and so assuming that the Packers 1257 01:14:37,720 --> 01:14:41,080 play the Cowboys and and and damn you for making me say this 1258 01:14:41,440 --> 01:14:48,080 and the Cowboys would be pretty heavy favorites over the Packers 1259 01:14:48,640 --> 01:14:56,680 and so it would be extremely extremely contrarian to pick a 1260 01:14:56,680 --> 01:15:04,880 Packer to pick a Packer's skilled position player to in in 1261 01:15:04,880 --> 01:15:11,560 in this contest because then almost almost by design you are 1262 01:15:12,480 --> 01:15:15,960 you're you're almost forced to at least soft fade. 1263 01:15:15,960 --> 01:15:19,320 The Cowboys where you're you're taking their kicker or something 1264 01:15:19,320 --> 01:15:23,800 like that just with how the bracket is set up just how you 1265 01:15:23,840 --> 01:15:30,360 you just have to make those choices and and I mean if you 1266 01:15:30,360 --> 01:15:33,400 want to go down narrative street where the the Cowboys are are 1267 01:15:33,400 --> 01:15:36,080 sort of perennial disappointments and and and this 1268 01:15:36,080 --> 01:15:39,760 year will be no different then then you do something you you 1269 01:15:39,760 --> 01:15:44,760 probably do something like Aaron Jones or if he's back for the 1270 01:15:44,760 --> 01:15:50,200 playoffs in time Jayden Reid and and and and with the Packers if 1271 01:15:50,200 --> 01:15:53,280 you are picking a skilled position player you don't have 1272 01:15:53,280 --> 01:15:56,760 to go down the the depth chart at all you're going to be so 1273 01:15:56,760 --> 01:16:00,240 contrarian picking a skilled position player for them and 1274 01:16:00,760 --> 01:16:06,800 that you you're you're you're you you you can pick you can 1275 01:16:06,800 --> 01:16:10,280 pick their best players. Yeah, I think the the reason 1276 01:16:10,280 --> 01:16:12,600 that it was interesting to me and I wanted your opinion on it 1277 01:16:12,600 --> 01:16:17,400 was I thought of that as one of the because because like you 1278 01:16:17,400 --> 01:16:21,440 said in this FFPC playoff contest, getting weird or like 1279 01:16:21,440 --> 01:16:24,880 finding leverage doesn't have to come from like how you would 1280 01:16:25,120 --> 01:16:27,600 typically think about it. In ADFS contest where you're 1281 01:16:27,600 --> 01:16:30,640 playing heart throws. You're playing like the best 1282 01:16:30,640 --> 01:16:33,160 player just on a team that's unlikely to win or you're 1283 01:16:33,160 --> 01:16:35,160 playing the second best player on a team. 1284 01:16:35,560 --> 01:16:39,640 And so for example, the Cowboys will probably like people that 1285 01:16:39,640 --> 01:16:43,080 play the Cowboys in this tournament, the vast majority 1286 01:16:43,120 --> 01:16:44,560 are gonna play them through CD Lamb. 1287 01:16:44,680 --> 01:16:48,680 You're gonna have like 8090% ownership on CD Lamb. 1288 01:16:49,160 --> 01:16:53,680 And so by soft or hard fading the Cowboys and playing someone 1289 01:16:53,680 --> 01:16:58,760 like Aaron Jones or Jaden Reed, that affords you the luxury of 1290 01:16:58,760 --> 01:17:00,920 playing all chalk everywhere else, right. 1291 01:17:00,920 --> 01:17:03,880 Like you can jam the Lamar Jackson. 1292 01:17:03,880 --> 01:17:06,000 You play the best team, play the best plays. 1293 01:17:06,480 --> 01:17:10,800 And the thing that's attractive about that is you really only 1294 01:17:10,800 --> 01:17:13,560 have to get that one contrarian thing right. 1295 01:17:13,920 --> 01:17:16,840 And then if everything else goes, you know, according to the 1296 01:17:16,840 --> 01:17:18,800 probabilities, you win all the money. 1297 01:17:19,080 --> 01:17:22,840 And so those are really interesting plays in that 1298 01:17:22,840 --> 01:17:25,120 contest. And so with Aaron Jones kind of 1299 01:17:25,120 --> 01:17:28,520 popping on this chart, he felt like he fit in the discussion 1300 01:17:28,520 --> 01:17:30,000 for that. Right. 1301 01:17:30,960 --> 01:17:33,360 And I think you tell me if you disagree with me. 1302 01:17:33,360 --> 01:17:37,320 I think in the context of that tournament, it's not like you're 1303 01:17:37,320 --> 01:17:40,840 you're you, you have three teams on 10/2 of them are Aaron Jones 1304 01:17:40,840 --> 01:17:44,360 team. It's like you have 20 teams and 1305 01:17:44,360 --> 01:17:45,880 one of them is an Aaron Jones team. 1306 01:17:46,200 --> 01:17:48,360 Yeah, yeah. And then you're doing all the 1307 01:17:48,360 --> 01:17:50,560 best plays everywhere else. Yes. 1308 01:17:50,560 --> 01:17:54,280 Yeah, I I've definitely thought about that as like give me one I 1309 01:17:54,640 --> 01:17:58,640 prior to making these charts, I was like, God, I love Jayden 1310 01:17:58,640 --> 01:18:00,320 Reid. Like, it'd be so fun to play a 1311 01:18:00,320 --> 01:18:04,280 Jayden Reid team in in the FFPC Challenge and then now seeing 1312 01:18:04,280 --> 01:18:07,160 Aaron Jones with the Jane Reed injury, it's like maybe I'll 1313 01:18:07,160 --> 01:18:09,840 just play it through Aaron Jones, but like to be perfectly 1314 01:18:09,840 --> 01:18:11,840 transparent. I don't even know if I'll, I'll 1315 01:18:11,840 --> 01:18:13,440 get there. Like I don't know if I'll have 1316 01:18:13,440 --> 01:18:15,880 the stones to do. Right that that is such a 1317 01:18:15,880 --> 01:18:20,600 contrarian play and but it's it you you can make you can make a 1318 01:18:20,600 --> 01:18:23,720 great team that that has like those very pussy V with Aaron 1319 01:18:23,720 --> 01:18:25,320 Jones. Right, right. 1320 01:18:26,160 --> 01:18:30,400 Anyway, yeah, I thought he was interesting on this chart. 1321 01:18:30,400 --> 01:18:32,440 There wasn't. We already covered David 1322 01:18:32,440 --> 01:18:34,520 Montgomery a little bit. You know what? 1323 01:18:34,520 --> 01:18:38,520 I think we do have both Justice Hill and Gus Edwards on this 1324 01:18:38,520 --> 01:18:43,680 chart, though, who are now kind of they're, you know, two ships 1325 01:18:43,680 --> 01:18:46,080 passing in the night. Here we see Justice Hill's 1326 01:18:46,360 --> 01:18:49,240 expected fantasy points increasing from where he had 1327 01:18:49,240 --> 01:18:52,440 been and Gus Edwards is starting to come down a little bit. 1328 01:18:53,400 --> 01:18:56,720 Part of this is just variance and Gus Edwards not getting goal 1329 01:18:56,720 --> 01:19:00,280 line touches right that when Gus Edwards gets a goal line touch 1330 01:19:00,280 --> 01:19:04,440 like he, you know everybody remembers Gus Edwards King 1331 01:19:04,440 --> 01:19:06,960 vulture for a couple weeks or he's like getting 2 rushing 1332 01:19:06,960 --> 01:19:08,480 touchdowns, 3 rushing touchdowns. 1333 01:19:08,480 --> 01:19:13,160 Like when that's happening his rushing expected fantasy points 1334 01:19:13,160 --> 01:19:16,240 shoots way up. He just has been running a 1335 01:19:16,240 --> 01:19:20,760 little cold on touchdowns. So we're we're almost too we're 1336 01:19:20,760 --> 01:19:24,480 not there yet but we're getting closer to a Gus Edwards Justice 1337 01:19:24,480 --> 01:19:28,160 Hill flipping in the ADP in playoff best ball. 1338 01:19:29,080 --> 01:19:32,880 And so you know right now Gus Edwards goes, you know probably 1339 01:19:32,880 --> 01:19:36,640 in like the late 20s, early 30s most of the time. 1340 01:19:36,920 --> 01:19:40,080 But he's sliding more because Justice Hill just had a really 1341 01:19:40,080 --> 01:19:42,240 big game and people have recency bias. 1342 01:19:43,880 --> 01:19:48,000 So I'm I'm curious you know it's gotten harder for me to be able 1343 01:19:48,000 --> 01:19:52,760 to fit both of them on a A-Team together just with the way that 1344 01:19:52,760 --> 01:19:56,240 the AD PS have shaken out some of my the stronger round one 1345 01:19:56,240 --> 01:20:00,360 active running backs that you have are harder to get in these 1346 01:20:00,480 --> 01:20:02,320 Ravens type builds that you'd want to have. 1347 01:20:02,320 --> 01:20:06,200 I I think Kyron is your best example and it it can be hard to 1348 01:20:06,200 --> 01:20:10,120 get Kyron Justice and Gus Edwards along with some of the 1349 01:20:10,120 --> 01:20:12,280 other pieces that you'd really want to have there. 1350 01:20:12,880 --> 01:20:17,320 So I guess I'm just wondering how would you be prioritizing 1351 01:20:17,320 --> 01:20:19,160 these running backs? Do you have a strong preference 1352 01:20:19,160 --> 01:20:21,320 one towards the other? Are you kind of treating them 1353 01:20:21,320 --> 01:20:24,600 as, I just need one of these two guys, so I'll wait until one's 1354 01:20:24,600 --> 01:20:27,200 off the board and I'll take the other at the cheaper price. 1355 01:20:27,440 --> 01:20:30,200 What do you think you should be doing regarding playing Ravens 1356 01:20:30,200 --> 01:20:34,480 running back in I I think most of the time I guess you you 1357 01:20:34,480 --> 01:20:36,680 could be mixing them in and builds where you don't have 1358 01:20:36,680 --> 01:20:38,400 Lamar, where you're still playing Ravens to the Super 1359 01:20:38,400 --> 01:20:40,200 Bowl. But how do you think it's best 1360 01:20:40,200 --> 01:20:46,720 to play these guys? And I I mean the price isn't 1361 01:20:46,720 --> 01:20:48,920 even close, right? They're they're they're sort of 1362 01:20:49,320 --> 01:20:58,600 pretty close to each other in terms of usage and just well 1363 01:21:00,480 --> 01:21:04,640 maybe not that close I guess what Justice Hills there at 12 1364 01:21:04,640 --> 01:21:13,960 and Ghost Edwards at 15 and I I think that the the price of 1365 01:21:13,960 --> 01:21:17,520 Justice still being that much cheaper especially especially 1366 01:21:17,520 --> 01:21:24,360 with goes Edward when you're playing at Baltimore stock and 1367 01:21:24,360 --> 01:21:29,240 let's say you've started Lamar you've got say Flowers and now 1368 01:21:29,320 --> 01:21:33,920 you need to use a a a good chunk of the middle rounds to build 1369 01:21:33,920 --> 01:21:37,280 out like a a sort of like secondary team that's going to 1370 01:21:37,280 --> 01:21:44,680 help you through round one. And I think that and and and 1371 01:21:44,680 --> 01:21:47,840 like I said Gus Edwards is right in the middle of that that range 1372 01:21:47,840 --> 01:21:52,080 where Justice Hill is right at the end when when you're putting 1373 01:21:52,480 --> 01:21:59,000 tack on players to stacks. I think I I do think that 1374 01:21:59,000 --> 01:22:02,000 Justice Hill is a much better play in in that context. 1375 01:22:04,400 --> 01:22:09,400 But at the same time it it it's it's a split backfield and so 1376 01:22:09,400 --> 01:22:15,040 you you what you call it you you probably don't want to get too 1377 01:22:15,320 --> 01:22:18,080 confident one way or another. You you you you do need to 1378 01:22:18,080 --> 01:22:20,320 figure out ways to play. Yeah Gus. 1379 01:22:20,320 --> 01:22:23,360 Gus Edwards teams as well, but definitely prefer the Justice 1380 01:22:23,360 --> 01:22:26,240 Hillside. Yeah, I I agree with you. 1381 01:22:26,240 --> 01:22:30,720 The way I've been playing it is I just let Gus Edwards fall and 1382 01:22:30,720 --> 01:22:33,520 if he free falls far enough, right? 1383 01:22:33,720 --> 01:22:37,440 I got all the stuff I needed to get and now Gus Edwards is here 1384 01:22:37,440 --> 01:22:39,760 staring me in the face and there's like no opportunity 1385 01:22:39,760 --> 01:22:41,680 cost. The other guys that I want are 1386 01:22:41,680 --> 01:22:47,240 like, I'm looking at, you know, Brandon Cooks and Jake Ferguson 1387 01:22:47,360 --> 01:22:51,400 or David and Joku. You know, as advance rate pieces 1388 01:22:52,440 --> 01:22:55,920 or or like maybe, you know, the Dallas has one of my Super Bowl 1389 01:22:55,920 --> 01:22:58,800 sides with with the Ravens, You know, maybe I've got Dallas and 1390 01:22:58,800 --> 01:23:01,920 49ers or something. And I'm like, I can take any of 1391 01:23:01,920 --> 01:23:03,480 these guys. They're all the same. 1392 01:23:03,800 --> 01:23:05,840 I I just need one of these three players. 1393 01:23:05,840 --> 01:23:07,640 They don't really matter to me who it is. 1394 01:23:08,600 --> 01:23:11,360 And so now I can take Gus Edwards here at a much cheaper 1395 01:23:11,360 --> 01:23:13,400 price. And then whichever of these 1396 01:23:13,400 --> 01:23:16,520 three random dudes that comes back to me that I need to fill 1397 01:23:16,520 --> 01:23:18,720 my wide receiver spot, I just click them. 1398 01:23:19,040 --> 01:23:20,720 And so that's kind of the way I've been doing it. 1399 01:23:21,200 --> 01:23:25,600 I I was thinking through how I like to have Gus Edwards with 1400 01:23:25,600 --> 01:23:29,240 Lamar. And I I do really think I prefer 1401 01:23:29,240 --> 01:23:34,160 having Gus Edwards with Lamar. You know, I I would much rather 1402 01:23:34,160 --> 01:23:38,240 not have Edwards on a team that's say it's a 49ers build. 1403 01:23:38,240 --> 01:23:41,600 I'm doing 49ers, Ravens and I got Purdy and so I don't get 1404 01:23:41,600 --> 01:23:44,600 Lamar right. I don't want Gus Edwards on that 1405 01:23:44,600 --> 01:23:46,720 team and that might sound counter intuitive because you're 1406 01:23:46,720 --> 01:23:50,720 thinking Oh well sack if if Gus is cooking and eating all these 1407 01:23:50,720 --> 01:23:54,320 rushing touchdowns up that might mean less for Lamar and and 1408 01:23:54,320 --> 01:23:57,560 that's the exact reason why I don't want that because in that 1409 01:23:57,560 --> 01:24:01,960 circumstance where that is is happening right it's easier to 1410 01:24:01,960 --> 01:24:05,240 advance the Gus Edwards without Lamar stuff and so it's gonna be 1411 01:24:05,240 --> 01:24:07,760 more popular. Now granted in this instance I'm 1412 01:24:07,760 --> 01:24:10,760 talking about with San Francisco so it's two by teams so don't 1413 01:24:10,760 --> 01:24:12,760 worry about you know getting unique. 1414 01:24:12,760 --> 01:24:15,720 They're getting 5 to the final with two by teams is unique. 1415 01:24:15,720 --> 01:24:19,000 But in a in an instance where maybe it's not 49ers, your your 1416 01:24:19,000 --> 01:24:23,440 Cowboys and Ravens right Then I really don't want Gus Edwards 1417 01:24:23,920 --> 01:24:28,360 because I want to benefit from that lower advance rate effect 1418 01:24:28,520 --> 01:24:32,720 potentially of Lamar. Teams with Gus Edwards may be 1419 01:24:32,720 --> 01:24:37,120 faltering a little bit when Gus has a big week and Lamar has an 1420 01:24:37,120 --> 01:24:41,080 off week because I'm just trusting the fact that the rest 1421 01:24:41,080 --> 01:24:45,440 of my roster, my second QB with team stack with teams that you 1422 01:24:45,440 --> 01:24:48,240 know I have the potential to have four teams total live in 1423 01:24:48,240 --> 01:24:51,440 the conference championships. I'm trusting that roster 1424 01:24:51,440 --> 01:24:54,560 construction advantage I have on the field so that when it's 1425 01:24:54,560 --> 01:24:57,800 difficult to get Lamar through to the finals with Gus Edwards. 1426 01:24:58,200 --> 01:25:01,080 I'm one of the very few people that's able to do it. 1427 01:25:01,520 --> 01:25:05,360 And again it's like we're we're thinking through this this game 1428 01:25:05,360 --> 01:25:08,280 theory stuff where it's like does that really matter man. 1429 01:25:08,280 --> 01:25:11,000 And it's like, yeah, it matters a lot because then I'm in the 1430 01:25:11,000 --> 01:25:14,960 finals and it's me and two total teams that were able to get 1431 01:25:14,960 --> 01:25:18,880 Lamar, Gus Edwards through. Where on the flip side, it's 1432 01:25:18,880 --> 01:25:23,280 just it can be much easier to do it if you're Dak Prescott. 1433 01:25:23,280 --> 01:25:25,520 Gus Edwards. Because Lamar failed in a week 1434 01:25:25,520 --> 01:25:27,200 where Gus had three rushing touchdowns. 1435 01:25:27,200 --> 01:25:29,040 Right. And and so then you show up to 1436 01:25:29,040 --> 01:25:30,800 the finals and you're Dak Prescott. 1437 01:25:30,800 --> 01:25:33,760 Gus Edwards. And it's like, yeah, you and 40 1438 01:25:33,760 --> 01:25:36,600 other teams have Dak Prescott, Gus Edwards in the finals, which 1439 01:25:36,600 --> 01:25:38,960 would only be a 10% ownership rate by the way. 1440 01:25:39,200 --> 01:25:42,040 And like, just for reference, if you're not, you know, deep in 1441 01:25:42,040 --> 01:25:44,360 the streets on these, like last year there were players with 1442 01:25:44,360 --> 01:25:46,880 above 40% ownership in the finals. 1443 01:25:47,160 --> 01:25:49,960 Because the nature of this contest is ownership condenses a 1444 01:25:49,960 --> 01:25:54,000 lot because of the small rosters and how teams actually advance 1445 01:25:54,000 --> 01:25:57,160 through the real life NFL playoff gauntlet combined with 1446 01:25:57,320 --> 01:25:59,520 the game within a game playoff gauntlet. 1447 01:25:59,520 --> 01:26:01,560 Well, the base, the base ownership is 18. 1448 01:26:02,240 --> 01:26:05,240 Yeah. So like 40% is like a little 1449 01:26:05,240 --> 01:26:08,000 over 2X, which is not that big a deal. 1450 01:26:08,680 --> 01:26:11,600 Yeah. So anyway, that's why I care 1451 01:26:11,600 --> 01:26:15,000 about it that way and you know you don't have to believe me or 1452 01:26:15,000 --> 01:26:18,480 or buy into that being important, but God, I just hope 1453 01:26:18,480 --> 01:26:21,400 I shift something with the with the Lamar Gus Edwards combo and 1454 01:26:21,400 --> 01:26:23,840 it was really hard to advance because that'd be a fun victory 1455 01:26:23,840 --> 01:26:26,160 lap. But anyway, I do think that's 1456 01:26:26,160 --> 01:26:27,640 important. I think it's an edge that you 1457 01:26:27,640 --> 01:26:30,080 can get if you if you're thinking through it correctly. 1458 01:26:31,200 --> 01:26:34,480 So anyway, I I thought the Ravens backfield is a pretty 1459 01:26:34,480 --> 01:26:37,000 important one to talk about, since they're the highest 1460 01:26:37,120 --> 01:26:39,760 probability team to make the Super Bowl outside the 49ers 1461 01:26:39,760 --> 01:26:45,200 right now. Yeah, I agree for sure. 1462 01:26:45,640 --> 01:26:51,480 And so the CMC one-on-one, nothing to talk about there 1463 01:26:51,480 --> 01:26:56,320 really unless is there any any CMC combinations that you're, 1464 01:26:56,400 --> 01:27:01,920 you're prioritizing over others? In the Gauntlet you you 1465 01:27:01,920 --> 01:27:06,200 typically have your option right now at the 101 you go CMC and 1466 01:27:06,200 --> 01:27:09,320 then the two three turn is your choice of Chiefs or Buffalo. 1467 01:27:09,400 --> 01:27:12,600 Typically if you're trying to play it that way you can deviate 1468 01:27:12,600 --> 01:27:14,160 and do different stuff from there. 1469 01:27:14,480 --> 01:27:19,080 But for the most part your best looking options from that spot 1470 01:27:19,080 --> 01:27:23,200 are CMC plus a Buffalo stack or CMC plus a Chief Stack. 1471 01:27:23,680 --> 01:27:26,200 And I'll tell you, I'm preferring to play it through 1472 01:27:26,200 --> 01:27:29,880 the Chiefs because #1 the Chiefs have better probability, so that 1473 01:27:29,880 --> 01:27:34,920 sounds good, #2 Buffalo was way cheaper in the gauntlet earlier. 1474 01:27:34,960 --> 01:27:39,080 And so some of the specifically the 49ers and Buffalo Combos are 1475 01:27:39,080 --> 01:27:41,000 the ones that are some of the most nutted. 1476 01:27:41,000 --> 01:27:44,000 Like when I look back at my old teams and I see like, Oh my 1477 01:27:44,000 --> 01:27:48,880 gosh, I got Josh Allen, Stefan Diggs, James Cook, Gabe Davis. 1478 01:27:48,880 --> 01:27:54,160 And then I also got CMC, Brock Purdy, Debo, Samuel, like see in 1479 01:27:54,160 --> 01:27:57,160 the finals for all the money. If it's Bills, 49ers, you know 1480 01:27:57,160 --> 01:28:01,360 right, those are out there, not like a million of them. 1481 01:28:01,360 --> 01:28:04,920 And it's also it's still by week team with the 49ers and people 1482 01:28:04,920 --> 01:28:08,400 did have to draft those early in the life cycle of contests when 1483 01:28:08,400 --> 01:28:09,920 information was, you know it was. 1484 01:28:09,920 --> 01:28:13,600 More they They could have also put in some shitty 70 that 1485 01:28:13,680 --> 01:28:15,800 actually didn't make it. Yeah, maybe they maybe have 1486 01:28:15,800 --> 01:28:18,280 Seahawks stacks. Bijon Robinson, you know, or 1487 01:28:18,280 --> 01:28:21,320 something like that to help get their CMC through Week 1. 1488 01:28:21,360 --> 01:28:25,160 So I know I did that one time. God bless that CMC team. 1489 01:28:25,720 --> 01:28:29,320 Sweet Angel. But anyway, I'm not really 1490 01:28:29,320 --> 01:28:33,120 wanting to do the Bills 49ers version because it's like that's 1491 01:28:33,240 --> 01:28:36,120 a worse version. It's not saying you can't draft 1492 01:28:36,480 --> 01:28:38,640 CMC plus bills. You can still do that. 1493 01:28:38,640 --> 01:28:40,520 But you just want to be thoughtful about how you're 1494 01:28:40,520 --> 01:28:43,800 doing it. Maybe taking a a later leverage 1495 01:28:43,800 --> 01:28:46,680 piece that when you do show up in the Super Bowl and face all 1496 01:28:46,680 --> 01:28:49,760 those super teams, you're like, it actually doesn't matter that 1497 01:28:49,760 --> 01:28:54,000 you have all those crazy pieces. Because I have very low Deontay 1498 01:28:54,000 --> 01:28:56,440 Hardy, who ended up being the guy you needed in the Super 1499 01:28:56,440 --> 01:28:57,920 Bowl. Or I have, you know, playoff 1500 01:28:57,920 --> 01:29:00,880 Lenny Leonard Fournette who actually got 2 receiving 1501 01:29:00,880 --> 01:29:03,360 touchdowns in the Super Bowl or whatever it is that you do 1502 01:29:03,360 --> 01:29:06,720 there. But yeah, CMC with the Chiefs, I 1503 01:29:06,920 --> 01:29:10,040 got, I'm I'm like, mad that I was in a room that let this 1504 01:29:10,040 --> 01:29:11,400 happen. And so like, I am. 1505 01:29:11,400 --> 01:29:15,480 I'm 1/5 guilty for this. But we were in a big mitten 1506 01:29:15,480 --> 01:29:17,720 team, so not the gauntlet, thankfully, but we were in a big 1507 01:29:17,720 --> 01:29:21,120 mitten. And the guy in the one hole gets 1508 01:29:21,120 --> 01:29:25,240 CMC proceeds to get the literal entire Chief stack. 1509 01:29:25,240 --> 01:29:28,240 He gets Travis, Kelsey, Pat Mahomes, Rashi Rice, Isaiah 1510 01:29:28,240 --> 01:29:32,160 Pacheco, all the way down with CMC. 1511 01:29:32,160 --> 01:29:36,040 It's like feels like we probably fucked up somewhere in this 1512 01:29:36,160 --> 01:29:39,880 world letting this guy get that. But yeah so I've I've seen 1513 01:29:39,880 --> 01:29:42,240 someone get it. I've been able to get it myself 1514 01:29:42,240 --> 01:29:44,920 a few times in the gauntlet and then I've been able to get it 1515 01:29:44,920 --> 01:29:48,280 like -1 premium piece a couple times too. 1516 01:29:48,640 --> 01:29:51,000 I will tell you I'm gonna here here's all the alpha. 1517 01:29:51,120 --> 01:29:52,280 Here it is. Write it down. 1518 01:29:53,000 --> 01:29:56,440 The secret tech you wanna You wanna get your full chief stack 1519 01:29:56,440 --> 01:29:59,120 through. It's not Mahomes Kelsey at the 1520 01:29:59,320 --> 01:30:03,080 at the 2-3. Turn with CMC, it's Pacheco and 1521 01:30:03,080 --> 01:30:07,040 Rice and the reason for that, and I believe me, I've tested 1522 01:30:07,040 --> 01:30:10,040 all the different versions and Pacheco and Rice is the one that 1523 01:30:10,040 --> 01:30:12,960 gives you the best chance of letting the room get it back to 1524 01:30:12,960 --> 01:30:15,320 you. At first I thought, man, it's 1525 01:30:15,320 --> 01:30:18,800 got to be Rice, Kelsey, because no one's going to take naked 1526 01:30:18,800 --> 01:30:22,280 mahomes with no pass catcher or Mahomes Pacheco, No one's going 1527 01:30:22,280 --> 01:30:24,120 to do that. I was wrong. 1528 01:30:24,160 --> 01:30:30,520 People will do that. And so when you take Pacheco, 1529 01:30:30,520 --> 01:30:33,960 who has gotten steam lately because he had a big game, and 1530 01:30:33,960 --> 01:30:38,240 you take Rice, who has gotten Steam, and then you leave yucky, 1531 01:30:38,240 --> 01:30:42,480 dusty Kelsey on the board with Mahomes, with only that as the 1532 01:30:42,480 --> 01:30:45,000 option, That's where people let it fall. 1533 01:30:45,000 --> 01:30:47,360 So I've had success doing it that way. 1534 01:30:47,640 --> 01:30:50,280 I would recommend if you're trying to get the CMC plus the 1535 01:30:50,280 --> 01:30:54,880 Full Monty on the Chiefs, you you try it with the Pacheco Rice 1536 01:30:54,880 --> 01:30:58,440 double tap and the beautiful thing about that is when that 1537 01:30:58,440 --> 01:31:01,360 fails, when it comes back and gets blown up and you don't get 1538 01:31:01,360 --> 01:31:04,400 Mahomes Kelsey, guess what you hit at the 4-5. 1539 01:31:04,840 --> 01:31:07,440 It's the hard E break into the Browns baby. 1540 01:31:07,600 --> 01:31:10,720 It's just 4 Browns right in a row and now you're Browns, 1541 01:31:10,720 --> 01:31:13,160 49ers, Super Bowl and no one can stop you. 1542 01:31:13,160 --> 01:31:18,280 So yeah, that's that's a pretty great one in my opinion, because 1543 01:31:18,280 --> 01:31:22,800 when shit goes bad for you, you still end up with a very viable 1544 01:31:22,800 --> 01:31:27,240 Super Bowl combo with a very strong team around advancing out 1545 01:31:27,240 --> 01:31:30,080 of round one. It's like, that's probably like, 1546 01:31:30,200 --> 01:31:31,800 that's the secret tech right now. 1547 01:31:31,800 --> 01:31:33,320 So there you go, there's all the alpha. 1548 01:31:34,040 --> 01:31:38,520 So and this is I'm not sure if I've blown something else up by 1549 01:31:38,520 --> 01:31:46,320 doing this and one thing that I have seen is cheap Mahomes and 1550 01:31:46,320 --> 01:31:51,080 Kelsey where I don't get Rice and Chaco. 1551 01:31:51,800 --> 01:31:56,120 I've done that cheap Mahomes and and Kelsey and then tacked on 1552 01:31:56,840 --> 01:32:03,600 CEH and one of the random pass catchers that that like that 1553 01:32:03,600 --> 01:32:06,040 felt like fine to do. Obviously that's not, that's not 1554 01:32:06,040 --> 01:32:09,800 as good as just getting the full monthly premium, but that felt 1555 01:32:09,800 --> 01:32:12,080 fine, right, that that that wasn't like. 1556 01:32:12,640 --> 01:32:16,120 Yeah, no, it's not a it's not that taking Mahomes Kelsey is a 1557 01:32:16,120 --> 01:32:19,320 donkey thing to do after Rice Pacheco off the board. 1558 01:32:19,400 --> 01:32:22,040 It depends on the rest of your build with like what's gonna be 1559 01:32:22,240 --> 01:32:24,760 available. The room is donkeys, so they 1560 01:32:24,760 --> 01:32:26,560 won't do that. Yeah, yeah. 1561 01:32:27,320 --> 01:32:32,000 But there are, yeah. It's just you can you can trust 1562 01:32:32,000 --> 01:32:36,120 that it's you just want to leave the grossest two players on the 1563 01:32:36,120 --> 01:32:40,120 board in the room's perception. Even though it shouldn't be like 1564 01:32:40,120 --> 01:32:41,800 the Mahomes, Kelsey Sack is gross. 1565 01:32:42,000 --> 01:32:45,600 That's just what the market in general feels like right now and 1566 01:32:45,600 --> 01:32:48,680 it but the the difficult thing is this is a little bit more art 1567 01:32:48,680 --> 01:32:50,640 than science. It's different in every room. 1568 01:32:50,640 --> 01:32:53,200 Like you might be in a room where someone's like the biggest 1569 01:32:53,200 --> 01:32:56,480 Travis Kelsey fan of all time because they love Taylor Swift 1570 01:32:56,480 --> 01:32:58,640 and they're like, Kelsey's gonna be back for maybe. 1571 01:32:58,680 --> 01:33:00,960 Taylor Swift is in your dropped room an underdog? 1572 01:33:01,480 --> 01:33:02,720 Exactly. Yeah. 1573 01:33:02,720 --> 01:33:06,520 You ever think about that? So anyway, I got it. 1574 01:33:06,520 --> 01:33:09,480 I would love if we got confirmation that Tay Tay is 1575 01:33:09,480 --> 01:33:11,560 just out here blasting off a big Tay. 1576 01:33:11,560 --> 01:33:13,160 Tay's already maxed the big mitten. 1577 01:33:13,560 --> 01:33:16,120 She's she's asking hope and New me to come out with an even 1578 01:33:16,120 --> 01:33:19,720 higher stakes contest. She was like, where's the 1579 01:33:19,720 --> 01:33:21,040 $10,000? Yeah. 1580 01:33:21,080 --> 01:33:23,120 Where's where's this Nosebleed stuff? 1581 01:33:23,280 --> 01:33:24,320 Underdog. Come on. 1582 01:33:25,640 --> 01:33:27,680 But no. Anyway, I I do think that's a 1583 01:33:27,680 --> 01:33:30,960 Really. I think that's a lot of edge you 1584 01:33:30,960 --> 01:33:34,160 can get with how you're playing skimpy out of the one hole. 1585 01:33:35,080 --> 01:33:40,680 And the other thing I wanted to ask you is what about like a an 1586 01:33:40,680 --> 01:33:46,600 Amen raw Now I know this is not a this is definitely big reaches 1587 01:33:46,600 --> 01:33:50,320 by ADP Amen raw Gibbs. Given that, like, you know, 1588 01:33:50,320 --> 01:33:54,120 their conference championship odds are like pretty identical 1589 01:33:54,120 --> 01:34:01,880 to the Bills and and and and Chiefs if, yeah, pretty similar 1590 01:34:01,880 --> 01:34:06,560 to theirs and and like you're getting just as premium pieces. 1591 01:34:07,560 --> 01:34:13,240 My biggest problem with that is what happens to your AFC side of 1592 01:34:13,240 --> 01:34:17,800 the bracket when you do that? Because you so you start CMC and 1593 01:34:17,800 --> 01:34:20,160 then Almond Raw and Gibbs, right? 1594 01:34:20,560 --> 01:34:27,000 And so you're at the 4-5 turn. Your highest probability AFC 1595 01:34:27,000 --> 01:34:31,280 side then is either, you know, the Chiefs total dart throw 1596 01:34:31,280 --> 01:34:33,040 guys, which is like that's not great. 1597 01:34:34,360 --> 01:34:39,280 You're looking at, you know, maybe dolphin stragglers. 1598 01:34:39,360 --> 01:34:43,640 You you got like a waddle a Chan there, you know? 1599 01:34:43,720 --> 01:34:46,760 You're playing a four or five seed, or you're or or you're or. 1600 01:34:46,800 --> 01:34:49,920 You're playing Ravens. You're playing Ravens dart 1601 01:34:49,920 --> 01:34:52,080 throws. But then what you end up doing 1602 01:34:52,080 --> 01:34:56,160 is you're saying I'm sacrificing CMCMC dies right? 1603 01:34:56,160 --> 01:34:59,440 So that my Lions can live, which I don't think is it's not the 1604 01:34:59,440 --> 01:35:03,440 worst right, Like, but it's also like, God, you got CMC Like 1605 01:35:03,440 --> 01:35:05,160 don't you wanna play towards the Super Bowl. 1606 01:35:05,480 --> 01:35:09,000 Yeah, but I no, I I don't think it's terrible. 1607 01:35:09,000 --> 01:35:12,760 I just think you're your viable options in the game tree are 1608 01:35:12,760 --> 01:35:16,800 limited and it for me it's mostly limited into Ravens. 1609 01:35:16,800 --> 01:35:20,120 So then your Detroit, San Francisco Ravens. 1610 01:35:20,480 --> 01:35:26,080 And then you're you're also boxed for like advancing in 1611 01:35:26,080 --> 01:35:28,480 round one. So like the Mitten. 1612 01:35:28,720 --> 01:35:32,480 The Mitten 3 for example. You must take the the Detroit 1613 01:35:32,480 --> 01:35:34,400 Lions quarterback. Yes. 1614 01:35:35,040 --> 01:35:40,200 Because you you you can't you probably well you can't take 1615 01:35:40,200 --> 01:35:45,760 Purdue. You can't take Lamar and so then 1616 01:35:45,760 --> 01:35:49,160 you're you're you're almost the only viable Super Bowl option 1617 01:35:49,160 --> 01:35:52,720 for you is where CMC is not available and so you lost your 1618 01:35:52,720 --> 01:35:57,920 first round pick and you might be playing against somebody who 1619 01:35:58,680 --> 01:36:04,240 I don't I don't you know I I'm wondering there there there's 1620 01:36:04,240 --> 01:36:07,480 not a first round pick there. Yeah. 1621 01:36:07,560 --> 01:36:09,600 Well you'd be playing against somebody who has the mirror in 1622 01:36:09,600 --> 01:36:10,360 the first round. Yeah. 1623 01:36:10,680 --> 01:36:13,520 Your your pigeonholed. What your pigeonholed into there 1624 01:36:13,520 --> 01:36:18,280 is your pigeonholed into either playing it through Lions to the 1625 01:36:18,280 --> 01:36:21,440 Super Bowl or playing it through Browns or one of the the even 1626 01:36:21,440 --> 01:36:25,520 lower the options to Super Bowl which I got a lot of Browns to 1627 01:36:25,520 --> 01:36:26,720 the Super Bowl. I hate to tell you. 1628 01:36:26,800 --> 01:36:30,400 You know like it's not. I'm not terribly proud of it but 1629 01:36:30,400 --> 01:36:33,600 the market wasn't efficient on it so I hammered it right. 1630 01:36:33,840 --> 01:36:39,240 But and and I don't think that's so bad but I usually do stuff 1631 01:36:39,240 --> 01:36:42,160 like that when I get forced into it and I don't really want to. 1632 01:36:42,160 --> 01:36:46,400 Like I think if you're if you're building a big portfolio like 1633 01:36:46,400 --> 01:36:49,640 you're maxing a bunch of stuff like for sure that sound that 1634 01:36:49,640 --> 01:36:52,160 sounds like a sick build to me. I'm like yeah, I I see that 1635 01:36:52,160 --> 01:36:54,320 being really cool. I want to do that a couple 1636 01:36:54,320 --> 01:36:57,560 times, but like for the the average person who might be only 1637 01:36:57,560 --> 01:37:00,720 throwing like 10 or 20 bullets in there, that's one where I'm 1638 01:37:00,720 --> 01:37:04,280 like just why? Why don't instead you just do 1639 01:37:04,280 --> 01:37:07,040 you know what we talked about early and play it CMC through 1640 01:37:07,040 --> 01:37:10,640 the Chiefs and you know, get yourself a big advantage on the 1641 01:37:10,640 --> 01:37:14,480 earlier drafters in the contest. So, Yep, Yep, Yep. 1642 01:37:14,480 --> 01:37:18,240 Makes sense. And I I think we're OK to move 1643 01:37:18,240 --> 01:37:20,880 on from from this chart, right? Yeah, yeah. 1644 01:37:20,880 --> 01:37:28,680 Let's hit hit tight ends here. So and tight end a little 1645 01:37:28,680 --> 01:37:35,200 different in in the playoff context but more I I I honestly 1646 01:37:35,200 --> 01:37:40,600 think tight end is a more interesting conversation in in 1647 01:37:40,600 --> 01:37:44,080 FFPC playoff than it is an underdog. 1648 01:37:44,080 --> 01:37:47,280 Because underdog, like they get bunching with the wide receivers 1649 01:37:47,320 --> 01:37:51,160 and it's like you're just taking the guy off like the stack that 1650 01:37:51,160 --> 01:37:56,560 you're you're building, right? Yeah, yeah, absolutely. 1651 01:37:58,400 --> 01:38:03,480 Like And then I wonder like the and and and then what. 1652 01:38:03,480 --> 01:38:07,080 What gets interesting to me about the playoff tournament 1653 01:38:07,080 --> 01:38:11,200 stuff is that some of these tight ends can be stud killers 1654 01:38:11,200 --> 01:38:17,160 in the way that TJ Hawkinson was like he he him racking up a 1655 01:38:17,160 --> 01:38:21,160 gazillion targets in that one playoff game last year just like 1656 01:38:21,160 --> 01:38:23,880 new Justin Jefferson. Now some of that was because 1657 01:38:23,880 --> 01:38:28,400 Justin Jefferson was like double covered every play and but that 1658 01:38:28,400 --> 01:38:32,800 that was like the that was the the contrarian play that that 1659 01:38:32,800 --> 01:38:37,720 end up being very successful. Like I wonder could could George 1660 01:38:37,720 --> 01:38:42,920 Kittle be a contrarian play? Probably not, because you're 1661 01:38:42,920 --> 01:38:45,440 expecting the 49ers to play at least two games. 1662 01:38:47,120 --> 01:38:50,360 Yeah, George Kittle feels like a little bit of a bridge too far 1663 01:38:50,360 --> 01:38:53,480 for me there. But like Sam Laporta as a, you 1664 01:38:53,480 --> 01:38:56,640 know, I I don't know how owned he'll be relative to like, 1665 01:38:57,160 --> 01:39:01,800 Gibbs, Gibbs and a Monra both feel like pretty comfy clicks 1666 01:39:01,800 --> 01:39:04,320 for me though. Like I would say one of those 1667 01:39:04,320 --> 01:39:08,880 two falls in the Boomer Opto rather than Laporta and so. 1668 01:39:08,880 --> 01:39:11,760 Yeah, yeah, for sure. Sam Laporta is not in the Boomer 1669 01:39:11,760 --> 01:39:14,160 opto. Now here's here's a question. 1670 01:39:14,160 --> 01:39:16,720 I'm like, I'm just on my way to mushing this play. 1671 01:39:16,720 --> 01:39:19,800 This is like my favorite play two days ago, and I'm just gonna 1672 01:39:19,800 --> 01:39:24,520 mush the fuck out of it here. So David and Joku is like one of 1673 01:39:24,520 --> 01:39:26,480 the best clicks in this contest, right? 1674 01:39:26,480 --> 01:39:30,200 Because you're gonna have the Boomer opto has to be either 1675 01:39:30,200 --> 01:39:33,480 between Amari Cooper or Brown's DST, right? 1676 01:39:33,480 --> 01:39:37,080 Like what those those are like the boomer opto already has 1677 01:39:37,080 --> 01:39:39,240 shirts made for both of those picks. 1678 01:39:39,320 --> 01:39:43,600 You know So it's like how squeezed does Njoku get and 1679 01:39:43,600 --> 01:39:48,720 isn't Njoku like literally he's he's TJ Hawkinson but cooler. 1680 01:39:48,920 --> 01:39:52,200 You know he's like cool TJ Hawkinson now because he's just 1681 01:39:52,200 --> 01:39:57,280 a target monster from Joe Flacco and it's like in in FFPC which 1682 01:39:57,280 --> 01:40:00,760 is hide in premium people forget like if David and Joku does one 1683 01:40:00,760 --> 01:40:05,880 of those 14 target games like you he you will require David 1684 01:40:05,880 --> 01:40:10,520 and Joku to win any money and. You know the Browns definitely 1685 01:40:10,520 --> 01:40:13,360 seem live to win their first round match up. 1686 01:40:13,360 --> 01:40:17,640 You know like the the Browns seem live to like if I told you 1687 01:40:18,040 --> 01:40:20,640 like just picture this in your mind's eye. 1688 01:40:21,040 --> 01:40:24,280 The Browns have upset the Ravens in the conference championship 1689 01:40:24,280 --> 01:40:26,720 game and the Browns are going to the Super Bowl. 1690 01:40:26,720 --> 01:40:30,480 And Joe Flacco has just delivered the dagger to, you 1691 01:40:30,760 --> 01:40:33,640 know, Baltimore. And he goes on to one more Super 1692 01:40:33,640 --> 01:40:35,920 Bowl, but without his, his old team. 1693 01:40:35,920 --> 01:40:39,320 Like, is that really that out there? 1694 01:40:39,320 --> 01:40:41,360 You know, like, is that really that crazy? 1695 01:40:41,840 --> 01:40:45,400 We've seen crazier things. Like, yeah, we've seen like we 1696 01:40:45,520 --> 01:40:49,880 the the the Giants won those Super Bowls with Eli Manning. 1697 01:40:49,920 --> 01:40:54,320 Like there's like there's been some pretty crazy results. 1698 01:40:54,320 --> 01:40:59,280 Like it happens. And Speaking of tight ends in 1699 01:40:59,280 --> 01:41:04,600 that game and I wonder. I wonder how far up there Evan 1700 01:41:04,600 --> 01:41:06,720 Ingram gets in. He's, He's. 1701 01:41:06,720 --> 01:41:08,600 Boomeropto 100%. Right. 1702 01:41:08,600 --> 01:41:09,720 Over, over. ETN. 1703 01:41:10,360 --> 01:41:13,800 Yeah, because remember what Ingram did last year in the same 1704 01:41:13,800 --> 01:41:15,520 same spot? They're like underdog to the 1705 01:41:15,520 --> 01:41:20,160 Chargers. He he smashes pretty good and 1706 01:41:20,360 --> 01:41:24,760 you're in the same spot. And I I gotta believe, you know, 1707 01:41:24,760 --> 01:41:28,920 Pat, I, I, I was talking through some of these with Pat and he he 1708 01:41:28,920 --> 01:41:32,360 thought Ingram was Boomer Optum. I said really like we we really 1709 01:41:32,360 --> 01:41:34,520 think they'll get there. And it's like Oh yeah. 1710 01:41:34,520 --> 01:41:38,120 Like you know the the FFPC crowd are many things. 1711 01:41:38,120 --> 01:41:40,880 But like what they're not is guys that aren't like paying 1712 01:41:40,880 --> 01:41:43,480 attention to the news. You know like they're definitely 1713 01:41:43,480 --> 01:41:46,560 plugged in. Like they they might think about 1714 01:41:46,560 --> 01:41:48,640 things a little differently than yeah, yeah, of course. 1715 01:41:49,080 --> 01:41:53,320 But like, they're aware that Evan Ingram has been like this, 1716 01:41:53,320 --> 01:41:55,960 you know, short A dot target hound. 1717 01:41:56,160 --> 01:41:59,560 Especially in matchups where you know the Jags are getting 1718 01:41:59,560 --> 01:42:02,000 pressured, you know where they're trying to get the ball 1719 01:42:02,000 --> 01:42:04,600 out. OK, yeah, got you. 1720 01:42:04,600 --> 01:42:07,800 Where they're playing, they're playing that idea that they know 1721 01:42:07,800 --> 01:42:11,560 how the game is going to go and they will have to operate. 1722 01:42:11,560 --> 01:42:13,880 True, true. Evan Ingram. 1723 01:42:14,520 --> 01:42:16,680 Yeah. And I I think too with Christian 1724 01:42:16,680 --> 01:42:20,480 Kirk coming back, it actually funnels more ownership to Evan 1725 01:42:20,480 --> 01:42:24,000 Ingram because it makes all the Jags pass catchers a little 1726 01:42:24,000 --> 01:42:26,320 murkier. And so then when you're like 1727 01:42:26,320 --> 01:42:29,440 they're all the same, let me just take the guy that gets 1.5 1728 01:42:29,440 --> 01:42:32,920 points for reception, right? And so that's I do think Evan 1729 01:42:32,920 --> 01:42:35,680 Ingram and then. People are gonna be nervous 1730 01:42:35,680 --> 01:42:38,720 about Travis Etienne because of how up and down he is. 1731 01:42:38,840 --> 01:42:42,520 Yeah, 100%. So yeah, that that honestly 1732 01:42:42,520 --> 01:42:47,840 makes me think that and the Jaguars might be a pretty good, 1733 01:42:48,440 --> 01:42:52,480 harder, soft fade. Oh yeah, Jags, Jags seem very, 1734 01:42:52,480 --> 01:42:57,200 very nice as a as a fade there. And then I, I already talked 1735 01:42:57,200 --> 01:43:01,520 about this, you know, more again is a systemic thing for the AFC. 1736 01:43:01,520 --> 01:43:04,960 Like, think about the Bills. Like, who are you excited to 1737 01:43:04,960 --> 01:43:07,160 click on the Bills for this contest? 1738 01:43:07,160 --> 01:43:11,160 Like, you're just begrudgingly clicking Dicks. 1739 01:43:11,480 --> 01:43:13,200 Yeah. And the fantasy points have just 1740 01:43:13,200 --> 01:43:15,600 been through, like, it's all Josh Allen, right? 1741 01:43:15,800 --> 01:43:18,480 I mean, like sometimes you get the James Cook game out there, 1742 01:43:18,960 --> 01:43:23,360 but it's like, what if instead I just soft or hard fade the bills 1743 01:43:23,520 --> 01:43:27,880 and I take Nico Collins? You know, like, that feels 1744 01:43:27,880 --> 01:43:30,920 pretty good to me. Like that's you're getting like 1745 01:43:31,160 --> 01:43:35,920 probably you know 1% combinatorial ownership on 1746 01:43:36,000 --> 01:43:38,640 Bill's softer hard fade plus Nico Collins. 1747 01:43:39,240 --> 01:43:42,920 And so it's like that's that's almost the same thing. 1748 01:43:43,280 --> 01:43:46,240 This is the crazy part about this contest that's almost the 1749 01:43:46,240 --> 01:43:49,240 same thing as doing like Jaden Reed Cowboy Soft fade. 1750 01:43:50,000 --> 01:43:53,680 But the probability of the Bills getting upset is way higher than 1751 01:43:53,680 --> 01:43:55,120 the probability of the Cowboys getting. 1752 01:43:55,120 --> 01:43:59,320 And so it's just like and and the players project like your 1753 01:43:59,320 --> 01:44:03,280 two V2 is like way more favorable to do it the Nico 1754 01:44:03,280 --> 01:44:06,120 Collins way, right. So it's just like rather than 1755 01:44:06,280 --> 01:44:10,520 pick some random bill and you're like I hope it's 2021 and 1756 01:44:10,520 --> 01:44:13,600 they're good at. Fantasy again, you know, Right. 1757 01:44:14,960 --> 01:44:18,080 Yeah, yeah, I I think that makes sense. 1758 01:44:18,520 --> 01:44:21,440 That definitely makes sense. Where like they're probably like 1759 01:44:21,440 --> 01:44:27,960 what three 3 1/2 point favorites against the Texans in in in in 1760 01:44:28,000 --> 01:44:33,120 in Vegas and that corresponds to like what a 60% probability. 1761 01:44:33,120 --> 01:44:36,040 I'm I'm, I'm sort of making stuff up, but something like 1762 01:44:36,040 --> 01:44:41,560 that and and and and you you get to have like a 1% combinatorial 1763 01:44:41,560 --> 01:44:45,600 ownership on a 40% outcome. Yeah, it's like that's why this 1764 01:44:45,720 --> 01:44:49,360 game is so fun. But as a as a Bills now if I 1765 01:44:49,360 --> 01:44:53,640 wanted to go bullish on the Bills, do you think Kincaid? 1766 01:44:53,800 --> 01:44:58,000 Like, I know I've been a Kincaid hater this season, but hear me 1767 01:44:58,000 --> 01:45:01,160 out. Since no one's doing anything on 1768 01:45:01,160 --> 01:45:04,760 the Bill's offense outside of Josh Allen, why don't I just 1769 01:45:04,760 --> 01:45:08,000 take, why don't I follow my Evan Ingram logic of I'm just gonna 1770 01:45:08,000 --> 01:45:10,360 take the guy that gets 1.5 X on his receptions. 1771 01:45:10,360 --> 01:45:13,720 Like, do you think it's crazy to do Kincaid? 1772 01:45:15,000 --> 01:45:18,400 I think if you're doing Kincaid, you're you're you're still 1773 01:45:18,400 --> 01:45:20,960 playing at Bill's loss. Yeah, you're right. 1774 01:45:20,960 --> 01:45:23,120 So it's just better. It's better to do the fade then. 1775 01:45:23,760 --> 01:45:27,200 But I mean you're probably still getting similar ownership and 1776 01:45:28,600 --> 01:45:32,160 but I I feel like that that that's like almost like a you 1777 01:45:32,160 --> 01:45:35,960 you you're betting them to lose. Yeah, no, you're you're right. 1778 01:45:35,960 --> 01:45:38,480 Yeah, I think that one is. That one's smelling your own 1779 01:45:38,480 --> 01:45:41,560 farts a little too much. You're getting too smart here if 1780 01:45:41,560 --> 01:45:44,640 you're doing that one. But anyway. 1781 01:45:45,640 --> 01:45:53,280 And I think, I think that's. I mean, Jake Ferguson feels like 1782 01:45:53,280 --> 01:45:55,080 there. There's no fucking point, right? 1783 01:45:56,120 --> 01:45:58,920 I've I've had a couple people tell me that they think that 1784 01:45:58,920 --> 01:46:01,520 might be one of the sharper ways to play the Cowboys. 1785 01:46:03,000 --> 01:46:05,960 You're you're playing for a round two exit, not a round one 1786 01:46:06,080 --> 01:46:08,200 right? And you're playing that CD Lamb 1787 01:46:08,800 --> 01:46:10,280 gets. Goose I think you're playing for 1788 01:46:10,360 --> 01:46:13,080 a round one exit. If you do Jake Ferguson 'cause 1789 01:46:13,080 --> 01:46:17,240 that's like a it happens over one game but feels very 1790 01:46:17,240 --> 01:46:20,200 unlikely, extremely, even more unlikely over two games. 1791 01:46:20,280 --> 01:46:22,360 You don't. You don't think that if like 1792 01:46:22,360 --> 01:46:26,600 let's just say CD gets like pretty goose like 6 for 40 in in 1793 01:46:26,600 --> 01:46:28,880 the game that they lose right. They they go around to you. 1794 01:46:28,880 --> 01:46:31,800 He goes 6 or 40 so that's 10 points and he has a good not 1795 01:46:31,800 --> 01:46:36,240 great game in the 20 something points and then you get 2 decent 1796 01:46:36,240 --> 01:46:40,600 Jake two games or Jake Ferguson gets you know six for 60 in a 1797 01:46:40,600 --> 01:46:46,160 touchdown in both like. So CD scores combined 30 points, 1798 01:46:46,400 --> 01:46:50,920 yeah, And then Jake Ferguson scores over combined 30 points. 1799 01:46:51,400 --> 01:46:55,520 Yeah, he gets, he gets 18 just from the receptions and then you 1800 01:46:55,520 --> 01:46:58,360 get the extra 12 from the yardage, right? 1801 01:46:58,680 --> 01:47:00,720 And then you get the touchdowns, You're 42. 1802 01:47:00,720 --> 01:47:04,040 So, like, I think it's thin. I don't think you're wrong, you 1803 01:47:04,080 --> 01:47:05,720 know? I I think it's thin that. 1804 01:47:05,720 --> 01:47:09,440 Right my my good. But my my sort of point was I'm 1805 01:47:09,440 --> 01:47:13,240 I'm sort of expecting like CD to be like and and and I know you 1806 01:47:13,240 --> 01:47:17,440 guys project ownership I'm I'm better than me and I'm expecting 1807 01:47:17,440 --> 01:47:21,000 that to be one of the mega CD to be one of the mega smash place 1808 01:47:21,200 --> 01:47:24,600 where it could even be like 90 percent, 90%. 1809 01:47:25,120 --> 01:47:30,400 And then in actuality you're getting then you can get Dak 1810 01:47:30,400 --> 01:47:36,160 Prescott at maybe like sub 10 and it's like well, if you're 1811 01:47:36,160 --> 01:47:40,240 gonna be contrarian there like that Dak Prescott at like 1812 01:47:40,720 --> 01:47:44,480 somewhere between 5:00 and 10:00 that that that feels like that 1813 01:47:44,480 --> 01:47:48,080 feels very, very like. Now you're Now you're speaking 1814 01:47:48,080 --> 01:47:50,360 my language, Draco. We're talking Cowboys to the 1815 01:47:50,360 --> 01:47:52,560 Super Bowl. I'm here for it. 1816 01:47:54,320 --> 01:47:57,280 Yeah. And that and I think that that 1817 01:47:57,280 --> 01:47:59,880 probably is what you're talking about there, where where you're 1818 01:47:59,920 --> 01:48:01,800 you're playing into the conference championship 1819 01:48:01,920 --> 01:48:03,880 probabilities and all that sort of stuff. 1820 01:48:04,640 --> 01:48:09,920 And but I, I, I get the Jake Ferguson thing where, you know, 1821 01:48:10,200 --> 01:48:13,160 we're showing here that he's running 80% of routes. 1822 01:48:15,360 --> 01:48:19,320 He's 18% targets per hour run, which is solid. 1823 01:48:19,320 --> 01:48:29,800 Not not a it's it's solid and and can he get 10 catches over 1824 01:48:29,800 --> 01:48:34,040 over two games and a hundred 100 yards over two games and a 1825 01:48:34,040 --> 01:48:38,360 touchdown? Yes, like 100%. 1826 01:48:38,360 --> 01:48:42,440 He can do that. And then maybe, maybe see if 1827 01:48:42,440 --> 01:48:46,960 you're really batting against CD Dan, why not bet them all the 1828 01:48:46,960 --> 01:48:49,160 way down? Yeah, yeah. 1829 01:48:49,160 --> 01:48:52,360 So I do. I I honestly hadn't even got to 1830 01:48:52,360 --> 01:48:55,320 the Dak contrarian play. I was just like if Dak gets 1831 01:48:55,320 --> 01:48:57,840 their CDs just such an alpha that it's you know. 1832 01:48:57,840 --> 01:49:00,560 But no, I I think you're right. That would be a really 1833 01:49:00,560 --> 01:49:03,520 interesting way to play it. So Cowboys will probably be one 1834 01:49:03,520 --> 01:49:07,520 of the the interesting spots to attack here. 1835 01:49:07,560 --> 01:49:12,240 But yeah, you I again, like you said earlier, it's not like if 1836 01:49:12,240 --> 01:49:15,080 you have three teams, you're doing 2 Jake Ferguson, you know, 1837 01:49:15,080 --> 01:49:19,440 It's like if you have 20 teams, you if you, you know, if you get 1838 01:49:19,440 --> 01:49:22,440 a hair up your butt and you're feeling real, real right then 1839 01:49:22,440 --> 01:49:24,360 you might click Jake Ferguson one time. 1840 01:49:25,400 --> 01:49:30,600 Yeah, yeah. And yeah, I I agree for sure. 1841 01:49:30,840 --> 01:49:36,480 And and then I mean, there's there's no point next chart. 1842 01:49:37,080 --> 01:49:43,040 I mean, Noah Gray is the only and and he's barely drafted, and 1843 01:49:43,040 --> 01:49:46,160 rightfully so. Yeah, in in playoff best ball, 1844 01:49:46,160 --> 01:49:47,640 you can sell me a little Noah Gray. 1845 01:49:47,640 --> 01:49:50,760 But in FFPC, there's not. There's not a snowball's chance 1846 01:49:50,760 --> 01:49:52,720 in hell I'm ever clicking. Noah Gray, right? 1847 01:49:52,880 --> 01:49:54,360 Yeah, yeah. Just doesn't. 1848 01:49:55,280 --> 01:50:01,000 Doesn't compute. Hey Draco, do you remember in 1849 01:50:01,000 --> 01:50:05,560 like week two when I said CD Lamb is moving up and to the 1850 01:50:05,560 --> 01:50:07,640 right? You know why I remember 'cause 1851 01:50:07,640 --> 01:50:13,080 you tell me every fucking week. I mean, couldn't have been a 1852 01:50:13,080 --> 01:50:16,560 truer alpha performance this season, man. 1853 01:50:16,560 --> 01:50:19,400 Just gotta gotta clap it up for my guys. 1854 01:50:19,480 --> 01:50:22,240 CD Lamb. That's that's some alpha shit. 1855 01:50:22,240 --> 01:50:27,240 So that was great. You know, we're seeing this. 1856 01:50:27,280 --> 01:50:29,800 This is a pretty stable chart. Obviously we're through the 1857 01:50:29,800 --> 01:50:32,480 season at this point. We're seeing A.J. 1858 01:50:32,480 --> 01:50:36,680 Brown like slide precipitously in these playoff basketball 1859 01:50:36,680 --> 01:50:39,240 drafts, and he's very clearly an alpha. 1860 01:50:39,520 --> 01:50:42,200 And like you mentioned, the Eagles are starting to get back 1861 01:50:42,280 --> 01:50:45,880 on the wagon offensively and Davonta Smith has the ankle 1862 01:50:45,880 --> 01:50:48,800 sprain. Like to me, this feels like it's 1863 01:50:48,800 --> 01:50:52,760 all setting up to like, can't you see that A.J. 1864 01:50:52,760 --> 01:50:55,120 Brown might be the guy you need in the first round of the 1865 01:50:55,120 --> 01:50:58,280 playoffs? Oh yeah, didn't they? 1866 01:50:58,280 --> 01:51:02,440 Didn't one of the coaches say, like this week, you know, 1867 01:51:02,440 --> 01:51:04,040 sometimes you just have to force feed A.J. 1868 01:51:04,040 --> 01:51:05,880 Brown? Like that's just got what you 1869 01:51:05,880 --> 01:51:08,200 got to do. I had, I hadn't caught that. 1870 01:51:08,200 --> 01:51:12,320 But I mean that the star, the stars are aligning, you know, 1871 01:51:12,320 --> 01:51:15,280 like I I I think, I think it's coming. 1872 01:51:15,280 --> 01:51:18,400 It's coming to bury the fuck out of me with my like, almost zero. 1873 01:51:18,400 --> 01:51:19,080 A.J. Brown. 1874 01:51:19,080 --> 01:51:20,320 So. A.J. 1875 01:51:20,360 --> 01:51:24,800 Brown is a hard one to do because to get him without Hurts 1876 01:51:25,240 --> 01:51:31,760 doesn't feel great and and then you have you, you have to do the 1877 01:51:31,760 --> 01:51:35,000 1-2 turn thing where you're getting Hurts A.J. 1878 01:51:35,000 --> 01:51:38,720 Brown and you feel like a moron 'cause you're like every fucking 1879 01:51:38,720 --> 01:51:41,440 person is doing this. Yeah, so. 1880 01:51:41,680 --> 01:51:43,400 It's a hard 1 to get this. Slide. 1881 01:51:43,400 --> 01:51:48,600 I think what I'm gonna do for me personally is often times when I 1882 01:51:48,600 --> 01:51:51,480 get Lamar at like the four, 'cause I'm I'm taking Lamar like 1883 01:51:51,480 --> 01:51:53,440 at the four now, 'cause you kind of have to to get him. 1884 01:51:53,800 --> 01:51:56,960 And I want, I want to maintain my overweight Lamar position. 1885 01:51:56,960 --> 01:52:00,120 It it won't maintain what it's at right now of like 30%, 'cause 1886 01:52:00,120 --> 01:52:02,160 it's just not possible now with how high he goes. 1887 01:52:02,640 --> 01:52:08,160 But yeah, when I take Lamar at the four, what I had been doing 1888 01:52:08,240 --> 01:52:12,560 was any 49er that comes back. So it used to be that you could 1889 01:52:12,560 --> 01:52:15,000 almost always get Lamar Ayuk at the turn. 1890 01:52:15,280 --> 01:52:16,680 Yeah. So I have a lot of combos with 1891 01:52:16,680 --> 01:52:19,480 that and I had a lot of Lamar Devo from early in the cycle of 1892 01:52:19,480 --> 01:52:22,280 the contest and now I'm just doing Lamar Kittle. 1893 01:52:23,200 --> 01:52:26,960 But what I think I need to start doing just so that when when the 1894 01:52:26,960 --> 01:52:31,320 inevitable happens and A.J. Brown just buries me all the way 1895 01:52:31,320 --> 01:52:34,480 in week one of the playoffs. I have some Lamar A.J. 1896 01:52:34,480 --> 01:52:37,360 Brown teams where maybe I'm not even playing that. 1897 01:52:37,360 --> 01:52:40,960 It's the Eagles of the Super Bowl opponent to the Ravens. 1898 01:52:40,960 --> 01:52:45,760 But I'm playing it as A.J. Brown got my Lamar team out of 1899 01:52:45,760 --> 01:52:47,560 week one and I really needed that. 1900 01:52:47,560 --> 01:52:50,040 So that's note. Note to sack. 1901 01:52:50,080 --> 01:52:52,560 I'm doing that this week. I'm going to grab some A.J. 1902 01:52:52,560 --> 01:52:56,320 Brown with my Lamar. I think, though, just to play 1903 01:52:56,320 --> 01:52:59,000 devil's advocate, you know more about this contest than I do. 1904 01:52:59,400 --> 01:53:01,280 You take A.J. Brown in the in the second 1905 01:53:01,280 --> 01:53:05,280 round, you you're you're you're betting on the Eagles like you. 1906 01:53:05,320 --> 01:53:09,080 You've started a substantial bet on the Eagles, right? 1907 01:53:09,360 --> 01:53:13,560 I yeah, yeah, you you are. But I think that, number one, 1908 01:53:13,560 --> 01:53:15,920 there are times I've seen A.J. Brown slide to the third. 1909 01:53:16,120 --> 01:53:19,520 And so I might just like open myself up to being willing to 1910 01:53:19,520 --> 01:53:23,360 take that over like you know, now I'm sacrificing getting a 1911 01:53:23,360 --> 01:53:26,200 Tony Pollard that I normally wouldn't take in there instead. 1912 01:53:26,480 --> 01:53:29,440 But you know, usually I'm taking Tony Pollard as an advance rate 1913 01:53:29,440 --> 01:53:34,080 piece too. So yeah, like I I think that's 1914 01:53:34,080 --> 01:53:38,480 OK to do those early one offs within structure of like I'm 1915 01:53:38,480 --> 01:53:40,720 still within four teams that could conceive. 1916 01:53:40,760 --> 01:53:42,160 Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 1917 01:53:42,360 --> 01:53:45,840 You still have that with your with your Ravenstock. 1918 01:53:46,280 --> 01:53:48,800 If you have four of them, you you tack on A.J. 1919 01:53:48,800 --> 01:53:51,120 Brown. That's still a viable playoff. 1920 01:53:51,520 --> 01:53:55,560 Yeah and but maybe I'm doing something like you know I'm 1921 01:53:55,560 --> 01:54:01,480 doing Eagles and Rams then as my and so and then I might go just 1922 01:54:01,480 --> 01:54:05,320 with literally 5 Ravens on the other side so that I'm set for 1923 01:54:05,320 --> 01:54:07,920 whatever. If it is Niner's Ravens I'm 1924 01:54:07,920 --> 01:54:11,320 still Gucci. I got 5 Ravens live for it that 1925 01:54:11,320 --> 01:54:14,760 way I don't have to lean into because I've got Eagles Rams 1926 01:54:14,960 --> 01:54:18,280 that aren't going to be on by I can then I can have five of 1927 01:54:18,280 --> 01:54:20,520 those at with Stafford as quarterback. 1928 01:54:20,520 --> 01:54:23,560 You know or I mean shoot even when you get the really deep 1929 01:54:23,560 --> 01:54:27,960 hurt slide you know you can do the yeah there are times looking 1930 01:54:27,960 --> 01:54:30,040 back thinking about my drafts the last two days. 1931 01:54:30,040 --> 01:54:32,200 There are times where like A.J. Brown and Hertz are both 1932 01:54:32,200 --> 01:54:36,640 available at like the 3-4 turn when I had Lamar and I just 1933 01:54:36,640 --> 01:54:40,000 should have done that because it's like I don't think that's 1934 01:54:40,000 --> 01:54:42,880 going to be super available for a long time even. 1935 01:54:42,960 --> 01:54:45,960 Like, I think this is the window that you can get that and I 1936 01:54:45,960 --> 01:54:50,280 think that next week, you know this this week 18, the Eagles 1937 01:54:50,280 --> 01:54:52,280 probably will continue to trend up. 1938 01:54:52,400 --> 01:54:53,840 You know, there's nowhere to go but up. 1939 01:54:54,040 --> 01:54:58,520 They they ain't going down after losing to to the Cardinals. 1940 01:54:58,520 --> 01:55:00,920 So I think maybe they get back on track a little bit. 1941 01:55:00,920 --> 01:55:03,680 The price is, you know, get you know, a little more normalized 1942 01:55:03,680 --> 01:55:06,840 and all of a sudden I'm sitting here thinking, Gee, I wish I had 1943 01:55:06,840 --> 01:55:10,720 done some of that. You know, Lamar, you know, 140 1944 01:55:10,720 --> 01:55:13,240 Niner, A.J. Brown hurts stuff that had been 1945 01:55:13,240 --> 01:55:15,120 available to me, although rarely. 1946 01:55:15,120 --> 01:55:17,520 So anyway, I'm just thinking through that. 1947 01:55:18,880 --> 01:55:21,640 Yeah, makes makes sense for sure. 1948 01:55:23,720 --> 01:55:31,640 So yeah, I think the the sort of alphas, they all make sense. 1949 01:55:31,640 --> 01:55:34,280 Everybody knows who the Alphas are like everyone knows if 1950 01:55:34,600 --> 01:55:37,920 you're doing, if you're playing bills, you want Stefan Diggs. 1951 01:55:38,520 --> 01:55:45,080 And I think it's a little interesting seeing Devonta Smith 1952 01:55:45,960 --> 01:55:50,480 in the in the sort of like regression negative regression 1953 01:55:50,480 --> 01:55:54,280 portion of this chart like right next to where our our beloved 1954 01:55:54,280 --> 01:56:00,240 friend Adam Thielen. But he he's been sliding hard 1955 01:56:00,880 --> 01:56:05,080 And so I think, I think the market has more than reacted to 1956 01:56:06,240 --> 01:56:10,040 some worsening fundamentals and and and the injury for Devonta 1957 01:56:10,040 --> 01:56:13,560 Smith too. Yeah, I'm pretty low on Devonta 1958 01:56:13,560 --> 01:56:17,080 Smith. You know, staying consistent 1959 01:56:17,080 --> 01:56:20,640 with my Eagle's fade and and you know, again, I'm still scared 1960 01:56:20,640 --> 01:56:24,800 that fade buries me now. But I definitely, I want to play 1961 01:56:24,800 --> 01:56:27,760 it more through A.J. Brown than anything I at this 1962 01:56:27,880 --> 01:56:31,320 point. But let's go to the next chart 1963 01:56:31,320 --> 01:56:35,440 because there's some guys on the next one that I think are really 1964 01:56:35,440 --> 01:56:39,000 interesting conversations for playoff best ball and that's the 1965 01:56:39,000 --> 01:56:42,120 Dolphins wide receivers of Tyree Kill and Jalen Wattle. 1966 01:56:42,840 --> 01:56:48,080 You've got the Jalen Waddle ankle injury where he should be 1967 01:56:48,080 --> 01:56:49,840 good for week one of the playoffs. 1968 01:56:49,840 --> 01:56:54,040 I right now I'm leaning towards he plays and he is, you know, 1969 01:56:54,040 --> 01:56:56,360 maybe not 100%, but he's he's out there. 1970 01:56:56,400 --> 01:56:58,000 He's running his whole compliment. 1971 01:56:58,000 --> 01:56:59,800 You're not getting, you're not getting a pure zero. 1972 01:57:00,280 --> 01:57:02,960 And we're not that worried about round one advance, right, 1973 01:57:03,000 --> 01:57:05,920 either. Right, but there are times. 1974 01:57:05,920 --> 01:57:09,880 There's lots of times actually, where I'm ending up with Jalen 1975 01:57:09,880 --> 01:57:15,360 Waddle and a Dolphin's running back as two of my only 5 live 1976 01:57:15,360 --> 01:57:18,160 players in round one, because I'm playing for like a Baltimore 1977 01:57:18,160 --> 01:57:22,960 and you know, 49ers Super Bowl. And then I I find myself getting 1978 01:57:22,960 --> 01:57:25,160 a little queasy about the Jalen Waddle clicks. 1979 01:57:25,160 --> 01:57:28,960 I'm like, oh God, if he's not actually back, like am I just 1980 01:57:28,960 --> 01:57:32,600 nuking this thing? So I personally feel like that's 1981 01:57:32,600 --> 01:57:35,600 a little risky. So I kind of weigh that in and 1982 01:57:35,600 --> 01:57:38,080 and sometimes like tie break away from if there's another 1983 01:57:38,080 --> 01:57:41,480 viable path, I might do the other viable path rather than go 1984 01:57:41,480 --> 01:57:43,240 in and embrace that additional risk. 1985 01:57:43,560 --> 01:57:47,200 But like if that's your best path, you just lean into it and 1986 01:57:47,200 --> 01:57:49,880 you eat the risk and you're like, I know I understand what 1987 01:57:49,880 --> 01:57:52,560 I'm getting myself into there. There will be sometimes where 1988 01:57:52,800 --> 01:57:56,120 week one of the playoffs comes, Jalen Waddell's out there for a 1989 01:57:56,120 --> 01:57:58,600 couple snaps and then he goes into the blue medical tent 1990 01:57:59,000 --> 01:58:02,200 again, you know, and you're just like, well, there goes that 1991 01:58:02,200 --> 01:58:06,240 really cool Lebar and CMC team that I had that was fun while it 1992 01:58:06,240 --> 01:58:10,920 lasted. But anyway, I I do think the the 1993 01:58:10,920 --> 01:58:13,160 Dolphins receivers are really interesting because you're 1994 01:58:13,160 --> 01:58:16,840 getting Hill to slide a lot now. Like I've been getting quite a 1995 01:58:16,840 --> 01:58:21,080 bit of Hill and Lamb in the gauntlet and I got to tell you 1996 01:58:21,440 --> 01:58:24,360 that was not available earlier in the contest. 1997 01:58:26,000 --> 01:58:29,960 So it's like that's even though those are lower probability 1998 01:58:29,960 --> 01:58:34,680 teams to meet in the Super Bowl. It's like my God, man, if you 1999 01:58:34,680 --> 01:58:37,800 give me, if you told me because I I've had somewhere, I'm like 2000 01:58:38,600 --> 01:58:43,360 CD Lamb, Tyree Kill, Tony Pollard, Raheem Monster, Jalen 2001 01:58:43,360 --> 01:58:47,160 Waddle Devana Chan, Brandon Cooks and then whichever of the 2002 01:58:47,160 --> 01:58:50,800 two quarterbacks. And I'm like, I have the stone. 2003 01:58:50,800 --> 01:58:54,640 We show up to the Super Bowl and this team made it like we can 2004 01:58:54,640 --> 01:58:58,400 just cut me the check, like save the time, you know, like no 2005 01:58:58,400 --> 01:59:03,200 one's beating that. And so I think those types of 2006 01:59:03,200 --> 01:59:06,680 builds are really interesting where it's like wasn't available 2007 01:59:06,680 --> 01:59:10,080 earlier in the contest. It's players that have such a 2008 01:59:10,080 --> 01:59:13,360 strong projection relative to the other options deeper on the 2009 01:59:13,360 --> 01:59:15,200 team. It's like all right, the guy 2010 01:59:15,200 --> 01:59:17,320 that I missed out on was Rico Dowdall. 2011 01:59:17,320 --> 01:59:21,760 So Rico Dowdall needs to outscore 2 of Tony Paul and 2012 01:59:21,760 --> 01:59:24,840 Raheem Monster Devana Chan to even crack. 2013 01:59:24,920 --> 01:59:27,920 You know he has to make two of them for me to lose. 2014 01:59:27,920 --> 01:59:31,560 So it's like and and that's kind of the same thing I was talking 2015 01:59:31,560 --> 01:59:36,840 about for the Chiefs, you know, where like, hey, I can get all 2016 01:59:36,840 --> 01:59:39,120 the Chiefs and other people didn't have it like this. 2017 01:59:40,120 --> 01:59:42,680 You you put yourself in a position where when you do make 2018 01:59:42,680 --> 01:59:45,240 the finals with that, even though that happens at a lower 2019 01:59:45,240 --> 01:59:48,640 frequency, that those teams are the ones in the Super Bowl, you 2020 01:59:48,640 --> 01:59:51,280 win all the money. And so I like builds like that. 2021 01:59:51,280 --> 01:59:54,520 Those are those to me are are enjoyable, 'cause then it's just 2022 01:59:54,520 --> 01:59:57,160 like I only really had to do 2 things right. 2023 01:59:57,320 --> 02:00:00,320 You know, I had to get through round one and round two and 2024 02:00:00,320 --> 02:00:03,280 round three like damn near advances itself when you play 2025 02:00:03,280 --> 02:00:06,400 this contest in the optimal way. And then and then you're in the 2026 02:00:06,400 --> 02:00:08,320 Super Bowl with the nuts and it's like. 2027 02:00:09,040 --> 02:00:11,760 That's a fun sweat. You know, I I sure do enjoy 2028 02:00:11,760 --> 02:00:14,320 sweating the nuts. It's like we turned over the the 2029 02:00:14,320 --> 02:00:18,760 whole cards on the turn and it's like, oh, I have a full house 2030 02:00:18,760 --> 02:00:21,960 and you're drawing to a flush. Like feel pretty good about 2031 02:00:21,960 --> 02:00:23,840 where I'm at, you know, so. Right. 2032 02:00:24,880 --> 02:00:29,320 And one one thing that's sort of noteworthy here to me and I've 2033 02:00:29,320 --> 02:00:33,680 been a little queasy about taking Brandon Cooks and and and 2034 02:00:33,680 --> 02:00:38,880 this chart probably does a good explanation why where he's at. 2035 02:00:38,880 --> 02:00:40,920 So he's at 80 to 85% route share. 2036 02:00:40,920 --> 02:00:43,160 So he's running a lot of routes but he's not running all the 2037 02:00:43,160 --> 02:00:45,720 routes. And then his way to target part 2038 02:00:45,720 --> 02:00:51,640 run is just 40% and I'm pretty sure he's run a little bit hot 2039 02:00:51,640 --> 02:00:56,760 on touchdowns and it's like like obviously in in in Cowboys make 2040 02:00:56,760 --> 02:00:59,600 the Super Bowl you have Doc Prescott like you want Brandon 2041 02:00:59,600 --> 02:01:02,240 Cooks. But I'm I'm starting to to 2042 02:01:02,240 --> 02:01:09,280 wonder if like if if you don't have dack, like should you be 2043 02:01:09,280 --> 02:01:13,880 taking Brandon Cooks on on on a secondary cowboy sack at all? 2044 02:01:14,200 --> 02:01:17,640 Like it feels sort of weak. That's interesting. 2045 02:01:18,480 --> 02:01:22,240 I definitely see the merit to like not doing Brandon Cooks if 2046 02:01:22,240 --> 02:01:26,040 you don't have dack. But at that point in the draft, 2047 02:01:26,320 --> 02:01:31,200 the options you're looking at are are weak 11V1, me, Brandon 2048 02:01:31,200 --> 02:01:33,640 Cooks, David and Joku. You know, it's like they're 2049 02:01:33,640 --> 02:01:37,440 close one V1 me. The ones where where you win the 2050 02:01:37,440 --> 02:01:41,560 1V1 hard in projection are like 1V1 me, Brandon Cooks, 2051 02:01:41,560 --> 02:01:47,000 Pukanakua, right. And that's one where if you have 2052 02:01:47,000 --> 02:01:50,480 a lot of Cooks already, maybe you do start doing that even 2053 02:01:50,480 --> 02:01:52,560 though it's lower probability the Rams make. 2054 02:01:52,560 --> 02:01:57,080 But if you do end up with the Rams facing the Cowboys in round 2055 02:01:57,080 --> 02:02:01,040 one of the playoffs, that's probably a really sick way to 2056 02:02:01,160 --> 02:02:05,080 balance out that Brandon Cook stuff because now not only are 2057 02:02:05,080 --> 02:02:08,320 like you getting the higher projected player, but you're 2058 02:02:08,320 --> 02:02:12,680 also benefiting when those Dallas teams lose out. 2059 02:02:12,680 --> 02:02:17,200 So I think that's interesting. I probably I I probably think 2060 02:02:17,200 --> 02:02:21,640 the way that I'm gonna account for that is doing the Puka Cooks 2061 02:02:21,640 --> 02:02:24,640 1V1 on teams where it's within structure. 2062 02:02:25,240 --> 02:02:29,720 Yeah, And and I I do. It does make me think, like, so 2063 02:02:30,360 --> 02:02:34,200 why do you think the probability is that the Cowboys beat the 2064 02:02:34,200 --> 02:02:37,160 Rams? Like is it 65%? 2065 02:02:37,760 --> 02:02:41,040 I was gonna go like 6060%. Yeah. 2066 02:02:41,040 --> 02:02:46,640 So and are the Rams really 40%? Well, I guess the the big issue 2067 02:02:46,640 --> 02:02:49,400 for the Rams then, is that they have to they have, they have to 2068 02:02:49,400 --> 02:02:50,960 beat the 49ers. Right. 2069 02:02:50,960 --> 02:02:53,880 And I'm. I'm a pessimist for the, you 2070 02:02:53,880 --> 02:02:55,280 know, I've been hurt so many times. 2071 02:02:55,280 --> 02:02:59,880 Draco you gotta understand. And and the Cowboys too. 2072 02:02:59,880 --> 02:03:03,120 Like the one of the biggest warts on the Cowboys is lack of 2073 02:03:03,120 --> 02:03:07,680 offensive line depth and Tyler Smith just tore literally tore 2074 02:03:07,680 --> 02:03:11,240 his planter fascia. By the way one of the funniest 2075 02:03:11,240 --> 02:03:14,080 injury report things not funny that this man tore his planter 2076 02:03:14,080 --> 02:03:15,800 fascia which is extremely painful. 2077 02:03:15,800 --> 02:03:18,480 Like especially when you're like 300 plus pounds. 2078 02:03:18,480 --> 02:03:21,400 Like that sucks. I feel really bad he's on a 2079 02:03:21,400 --> 02:03:23,520 scooter right now. I promise you, he's on a. 2080 02:03:23,520 --> 02:03:28,360 Scooter, of course. But the injury report that I saw 2081 02:03:28,640 --> 02:03:32,200 was that his status was in question for week 18. 2082 02:03:32,480 --> 02:03:35,640 Are you fucking joking me? What's the question? 2083 02:03:35,640 --> 02:03:37,480 Like how long? How is he gonna get out of bed? 2084 02:03:37,480 --> 02:03:43,320 This. £300 monster man like has to put his full weight on a torn 2085 02:03:43,440 --> 02:03:46,160 planter fashion. Like dude, I know, I know like 2086 02:03:46,160 --> 02:03:49,000 real mortals that tore their planter fascia where they were 2087 02:03:49,000 --> 02:03:52,600 like they were scooter gang for like 6 weeks. 2088 02:03:53,560 --> 02:03:58,400 Like I I know these are like right and and. 2089 02:03:58,400 --> 02:04:01,520 They're gonna be giving them injections, but that is not. 2090 02:04:01,560 --> 02:04:03,520 A. But my God, man, Like that 2091 02:04:03,520 --> 02:04:06,800 sounds crazy to me. So that's scary to me as a 2092 02:04:06,800 --> 02:04:09,040 Cowboys fan. Like one of our best offensive 2093 02:04:09,040 --> 02:04:13,200 lineman on our strongest side of our line is weak. 2094 02:04:13,240 --> 02:04:15,880 Now. Like he's either majorly hobbled 2095 02:04:15,880 --> 02:04:19,200 or we're playing it back up and the Cowboys have show like. 2096 02:04:19,560 --> 02:04:22,160 You look at some of the most embarrassing losses the Cowboys 2097 02:04:22,160 --> 02:04:24,720 have had this season. It's like, oh, Tyrant Swift is 2098 02:04:24,720 --> 02:04:26,440 out. You know, like the Cowboys are 2099 02:04:26,440 --> 02:04:30,240 missing someone on that line and the depth is not existent. 2100 02:04:30,240 --> 02:04:33,680 So that's part of where my pessimism comes in. 2101 02:04:34,280 --> 02:04:37,400 But anyway. Just checking something here 2102 02:04:37,440 --> 02:04:42,200 where is Justin? Like I'm I'm looking at Quez 2103 02:04:42,200 --> 02:04:51,120 Watkins here at 70 to 75% and way to target or say a routes 2104 02:04:51,120 --> 02:04:55,760 run I should say and then like just an abysmal 20% weighted 2105 02:04:55,760 --> 02:05:01,840 Tegra's parent run even though he's like a deep shot guy and 2106 02:05:03,160 --> 02:05:08,240 like it it like I I know you've been off the you've been off the 2107 02:05:08,240 --> 02:05:13,080 Eagles but let's say you've got a Jalen Hurts team and you're 2108 02:05:13,080 --> 02:05:18,280 looking to tag on another another piece is is someone like 2109 02:05:18,280 --> 02:05:22,200 this like is that like and and and the fact that they're barely 2110 02:05:22,200 --> 02:05:26,640 drafted as well at Myers too like is Quez Watkins draftable. 2111 02:05:28,280 --> 02:05:34,440 I don't think Quez Watkins is draftable, but could I interest 2112 02:05:34,440 --> 02:05:39,960 you in Quintorius Lopez Jones, better known as Julio? 2113 02:05:40,640 --> 02:05:44,280 Of course, yeah. I've already taken JoJo like he 2114 02:05:44,280 --> 02:05:47,640 just scored two touchdowns. Yeah, it's it's fucking Cannon 2115 02:05:47,640 --> 02:05:50,200 that if they win that, he has to be a huge part of it. 2116 02:05:50,640 --> 02:05:51,760 Yeah, I know. It's it's fresh. 2117 02:05:51,800 --> 02:05:55,160 Likes Julio Jones, baby, as the Eagles savior in the playoffs. 2118 02:05:56,200 --> 02:05:59,400 There's no bigger backhanded compliment than calling an older 2119 02:05:59,400 --> 02:06:01,320 player fresh who hasn't played much fresh. 2120 02:06:01,360 --> 02:06:06,440 Likes Oh yeah, no, I wouldn't draft Klez. 2121 02:06:06,440 --> 02:06:08,400 I would. I would click some Julio though. 2122 02:06:08,400 --> 02:06:11,760 But like the other thing with the Eagles, this this is kind of 2123 02:06:11,760 --> 02:06:14,840 like how it parallels a little bit with the FFPC playoff 2124 02:06:14,840 --> 02:06:18,320 contest is the stuff that's the teams that people aren't as 2125 02:06:18,320 --> 02:06:21,600 excited to click in. Basketball drafts are the ones 2126 02:06:21,600 --> 02:06:24,160 where you don't have to get as cute on them. 2127 02:06:24,160 --> 02:06:28,280 Because if you show up to the finals, I mean, like, yes, the 2128 02:06:28,280 --> 02:06:30,840 Eagles were heavily drafted earlier, you know? 2129 02:06:30,840 --> 02:06:34,280 But like if you show up to the finals and you have a full Eagle 2130 02:06:34,280 --> 02:06:39,400 Stack and Kenneth Gainwell, you know like not, not as many 2131 02:06:39,400 --> 02:06:41,280 people are building full eagle stacks anymore. 2132 02:06:41,280 --> 02:06:45,240 They're more like 1 off pieces or things like that or many, you 2133 02:06:45,240 --> 02:06:50,320 know 2 two player minis. So I'm not as into doing a Quez 2134 02:06:50,320 --> 02:06:51,840 Watkins. The other thing is like. 2135 02:06:52,120 --> 02:06:53,920 There's so many viable alternatives. 2136 02:06:54,080 --> 02:06:58,280 And whoever your opponent is on the AFC is probably a better 2137 02:06:58,280 --> 02:07:00,400 alternative dark throw than Quez Watt. 2138 02:07:00,400 --> 02:07:03,880 Like you you take the Chiefs as the you know it's Eagle Chiefs 2139 02:07:03,880 --> 02:07:07,200 rematch pick any Chiefs dart throw you know you want. 2140 02:07:07,200 --> 02:07:10,200 You want Ravens OK great. Any Ravens dart throw like I 2141 02:07:10,200 --> 02:07:15,800 like over Quez Watkins you know so yeah that's if you were so if 2142 02:07:15,800 --> 02:07:19,400 you were the mega Eagles bowl, if you were like the Eagles are 2143 02:07:19,400 --> 02:07:22,600 going to the Super Bowl and I won't hear anything else then 2144 02:07:22,600 --> 02:07:24,560 yeah you mix some Quez Watkins in. 2145 02:07:24,600 --> 02:07:27,880 But I'm I'm coming from a place where it's like I have like 2146 02:07:27,880 --> 02:07:29,800 almost no Eagles in My Portfolio. 2147 02:07:29,800 --> 02:07:32,640 I don't need to start getting down to the, like, really cutesy 2148 02:07:32,640 --> 02:07:38,040 stuff, you know? Right I I'm just determined so 2149 02:07:38,040 --> 02:07:41,640 like this is sat chasing. I'm determined to make it about 2150 02:07:41,640 --> 02:07:45,560 the stats and the charts and this is my way of doing that. 2151 02:07:45,560 --> 02:07:49,320 I I think too what's really relevant is that especially with 2152 02:07:49,320 --> 02:07:56,040 Quez you have tree bonafide like bonafide like alpha target 2153 02:07:56,040 --> 02:08:02,600 errors in in like A.J. Brown, the Vonda Smith and Can't 2154 02:08:02,600 --> 02:08:05,560 believe What's the Dallas not? I thought you're gonna go, 2155 02:08:05,560 --> 02:08:07,400 Julio. I thought you were calling Julio 2156 02:08:07,400 --> 02:08:10,240 Jones Bonafide Alpha as like. We're going there. 2157 02:08:11,080 --> 02:08:13,720 No, not yet. But then you you have, you also 2158 02:08:13,720 --> 02:08:19,280 have the merging Julio Jones and and so yeah, that that's 2159 02:08:19,280 --> 02:08:21,720 something where I guess not many people are doing it and and 2160 02:08:21,720 --> 02:08:23,280 definitely makes sense to not do it. 2161 02:08:24,960 --> 02:08:27,680 Yeah. All right let's let's take it to 2162 02:08:27,720 --> 02:08:34,120 the last chart here. Really there's I think one guy. 2163 02:08:34,120 --> 02:08:38,160 Now there there were two guys on this chart that were actually 2164 02:08:38,160 --> 02:08:40,360 that's a lie. There's I see Ravens players so 2165 02:08:40,360 --> 02:08:43,800 there's plenty of guys on this chart that are interesting but 2166 02:08:43,800 --> 02:08:47,480 Rashi Rice is like the crown jewel of this chart for playoff 2167 02:08:47,480 --> 02:08:51,320 best ball cause Rashi goes, you know third round most of the 2168 02:08:51,320 --> 02:08:55,160 time the fourth round. And no one else here is is going 2169 02:08:55,160 --> 02:09:00,800 anywhere near that high. A guy that was going early in 2170 02:09:00,800 --> 02:09:04,280 drafts when the Jags looked functional was Parker Washington 2171 02:09:04,360 --> 02:09:06,520 when there were doubts of Christian Kirk coming back. 2172 02:09:07,160 --> 02:09:10,520 That's probably that's fully off the menu for me now with Kirk 2173 02:09:10,520 --> 02:09:13,400 back. Oh, but yeah, this is this is a 2174 02:09:13,400 --> 02:09:16,280 whole smorgasbord. Of late round we've got Jameson 2175 02:09:16,280 --> 02:09:18,200 Williams, we've got Michael. Dell. 2176 02:09:18,360 --> 02:09:20,080 Justin Watson? Odell. 2177 02:09:20,080 --> 02:09:21,480 Jameson. Williams. 2178 02:09:22,480 --> 02:09:25,800 Let's see, who else do we have? Chase. 2179 02:09:25,800 --> 02:09:28,640 Claypool. Oh, gross, Braxton. 2180 02:09:28,720 --> 02:09:31,640 Area. Yeah, no, it's, I mean, it's 2181 02:09:31,640 --> 02:09:33,800 Cedric Wilson all the way for me, if you're going to do that 2182 02:09:33,800 --> 02:09:40,920 Miami wide receiver punt. But I think I think I even saw a 2183 02:09:40,920 --> 02:09:44,800 little Rashad Bateman in here. Yeah, so like, there's a lot of 2184 02:09:44,800 --> 02:09:46,920 guys on here. That's the thing about playoff 2185 02:09:46,920 --> 02:09:49,400 best ball. When we got to this chart in 2186 02:09:49,400 --> 02:09:54,080 previous weeks, we were like Jaden Reed, Rashi Rice Curtis 2187 02:09:54,080 --> 02:09:55,520 Samuel. All right, let's not talk about 2188 02:09:55,520 --> 02:09:57,200 anyone else because none of them are relevant. 2189 02:09:57,480 --> 02:10:01,680 But playoff best ball the threshold for points is so, so 2190 02:10:01,680 --> 02:10:05,320 low in in some Super Bowl scenarios especially if it's 2191 02:10:05,320 --> 02:10:08,000 hard to get 5 live players to the Super Bowl if they're you 2192 02:10:08,000 --> 02:10:12,720 know if a bye week team makes it that just having anyone anyone 2193 02:10:12,720 --> 02:10:15,680 fill that fifth slot, you know because what what ends up 2194 02:10:15,680 --> 02:10:19,720 happening is you and 12 other people have the same four 2195 02:10:19,720 --> 02:10:23,160 players that are alive, right. And maybe they don't have a 2196 02:10:23,160 --> 02:10:27,680 fifth active player, but you do, and it's Rashad Bateman and it 2197 02:10:27,680 --> 02:10:28,560 just. So happens. 2198 02:10:29,360 --> 02:10:32,560 The game's playing out, and those four players that you 2199 02:10:32,560 --> 02:10:35,560 share with those 12 people are the nuts so far. 2200 02:10:35,760 --> 02:10:39,200 And all of you are 1st through 12th and you're holding hands 2201 02:10:39,200 --> 02:10:40,600 chopping all the money right now. 2202 02:10:40,960 --> 02:10:45,600 And then at the end of the game Rashad Bateman catches 1 pass 2203 02:10:45,600 --> 02:10:50,840 for seven yard pass and that is $150,000 for you, you know, 2204 02:10:51,120 --> 02:10:53,400 that's that's why these guys matter. 2205 02:10:54,680 --> 02:10:59,760 So I've I've seen people talk about like oh I'm like never I'd 2206 02:10:59,760 --> 02:11:03,000 never click Rashad Bateman. I'd always click like I'd much 2207 02:11:03,000 --> 02:11:06,560 rather click Calvin Ridley or Christian Kirk as just a run off 2208 02:11:06,560 --> 02:11:10,240 to help me advance and like that's the reason why I I showed 2209 02:11:10,240 --> 02:11:14,040 that expected value calculation earlier because it's like you 2210 02:11:14,040 --> 02:11:19,040 know 1% boost in your and and that was only looking at round 2211 02:11:19,040 --> 02:11:22,240 three where we're talking about you know advancing one of eight. 2212 02:11:22,440 --> 02:11:25,040 We're not even talking about the one out of 400. 2213 02:11:25,040 --> 02:11:28,560 I I just was looking at the calculation of like your base 2214 02:11:28,560 --> 02:11:33,040 finals expected value rate, not even considering how much of an 2215 02:11:33,040 --> 02:11:36,840 advantage having a fifth player. When you're in a group of, you 2216 02:11:36,840 --> 02:11:40,280 know, 10 or 20 teams that have the same four players as you 2217 02:11:40,280 --> 02:11:43,600 like it, it gets magnified even more. 2218 02:11:43,840 --> 02:11:47,600 OK, so like you already saw why it was important to click those 2219 02:11:47,600 --> 02:11:51,280 guys just from a go from round three into the finals point. 2220 02:11:51,640 --> 02:11:56,680 But when you do the expected value calculation of like I get 2221 02:11:56,680 --> 02:11:59,880 there and there's 20 people duped with me and Rashad Bateman 2222 02:11:59,880 --> 02:12:05,640 only scores above 0 30% of the time, well, that 30% of the time 2223 02:12:05,640 --> 02:12:11,800 is $120,000 of EV for you. And so it's like .3 times 12036 2224 02:12:11,800 --> 02:12:14,320 grand. That Rashad Bateman play was a 2225 02:12:14,320 --> 02:12:17,920 $36,000 EV play for you when it you know, when you get right. 2226 02:12:17,960 --> 02:12:21,440 So that's that's why. But anyway, all these gross 2227 02:12:21,440 --> 02:12:24,800 guys, you'll You'll become intimately acquainted with them 2228 02:12:24,800 --> 02:12:26,360 if you do a lot of playoff basketball. 2229 02:12:28,360 --> 02:12:35,040 Yeah makes makes sense for sure and OK well I this has been a 2230 02:12:35,040 --> 02:12:39,480 lot of fun we've we've we've sprinted through the two hour 2231 02:12:39,480 --> 02:12:43,000 mark two hours and and and 13 minutes. 2232 02:12:43,240 --> 02:12:49,280 So good time good time to to stop there and like I said that 2233 02:12:49,280 --> 02:12:52,720 this the show has been a lot of fun to do with you this year at 2234 02:12:53,480 --> 02:12:56,520 SAC and looking forward to next year. 2235 02:12:57,200 --> 02:13:04,120 Hopefully you don't abandoned me as well and then yeah, been a 2236 02:13:04,120 --> 02:13:07,360 lot of fun. No, No plans on abandoning you. 2237 02:13:07,360 --> 02:13:10,400 Draco wouldn't think of it. Yeah, I just feel super 2238 02:13:10,400 --> 02:13:12,800 fortunate that you asked me to be on the show. 2239 02:13:13,080 --> 02:13:16,480 I had a blast with you too, man. I feel like you made me a much 2240 02:13:16,480 --> 02:13:18,600 better fantasy player this. Year. 2241 02:13:18,600 --> 02:13:21,320 Thank you. The The best thing about this 2242 02:13:21,320 --> 02:13:24,520 game is when you find someone else where you really respect 2243 02:13:24,520 --> 02:13:26,640 their opinion and you know that they're thinking about things in 2244 02:13:26,640 --> 02:13:29,480 the right way because it's so easy. 2245 02:13:29,480 --> 02:13:32,280 Especially like for people that are really in the weeds on this 2246 02:13:32,280 --> 02:13:34,240 stuff, You're doing a lot of your own work. 2247 02:13:34,280 --> 02:13:36,960 You you feel confident in the work that you're doing. 2248 02:13:37,440 --> 02:13:40,000 It's really easy to think that you're the smartest guy in the 2249 02:13:40,000 --> 02:13:43,680 room and let your ego get the best of you and only trust what 2250 02:13:43,680 --> 02:13:45,960 you're doing right, or trust yourself and maybe a couple 2251 02:13:45,960 --> 02:13:48,680 other people. But getting to work with you 2252 02:13:48,960 --> 02:13:51,760 where you're able to challenge me on some stuff and make me 2253 02:13:51,760 --> 02:13:55,400 rethink a position that I have that's really helpful for me. 2254 02:13:55,400 --> 02:13:57,720 And I think it's made me a much better player. 2255 02:13:57,720 --> 02:14:02,080 And I'm really excited to get back to drafting best ball next 2256 02:14:02,080 --> 02:14:06,720 season and hope hope one of our FFPC teams that we split next 2257 02:14:06,720 --> 02:14:10,600 year ends up taking it down. Yeah, yeah, fingers crossed. 2258 02:14:10,600 --> 02:14:15,200 And yeah, I I I'm really glad that I did. 2259 02:14:15,240 --> 02:14:21,760 I did propose you to to to to do larger ship chasing guys and I 2260 02:14:21,800 --> 02:14:28,040 think everyone would agree that it's been really, really good. 2261 02:14:28,680 --> 02:14:30,120 Just trying to make you proud, Draco. 2262 02:14:31,760 --> 02:14:34,760 Well, let's we'll enter.