All right, free agency has shaken up the NFL landscape.
It's shaking up the landscape in basketball draft.
I've got Hayden wakes, Davis, Matic.
We're going to talk about all the 80s ATP ships this week.
It's a teepee chasing. Pat Friar homos hand job.
Fix your sight, your bar How's it going guys?
What's good? You know, we still waiting for
still waiting, seven teams have signed a wide receiver, seven
teams, bro. 17 years ago. I mean it's not the best class
we were talking before we started about blurbing free
agency which Hayden and I both have experience doing, but
fortunately, you're not doing this week.
We instead we get to sit back and enjoy the moves and think
about how it's going to affect our best while drafting
strategy. Yet the big thing.
Not doing the cornerback blurbs and stuff where you're like,
okay, like literally is this guy even starting and stuff.
Like there's some guys like man. That's I have to literally
research this entire player's profile, but now we got it.
Easiest turn on the camera and go.
Yeah, we love it. Yeah, we do lies McColl Hardman,
not a Chicago Bear yet. People are asking.
I thought he was in. He, like, more money than
expected. Just because his like drafts.
No, dude, no, the longer this goes on, the more money.
He's gonna get it. Hasn't he hasn't signed because
teams are coming with this weak-ass for years, 45 million
dollars and he's like come again, bucko, we we're not
Jacoby Myers. Just got 11 million dollars a
year. I am not 60 B Meyer sir.
So you think this is good. I feel like it's if he was going
to get the bag, I thought he would have gotten it right out
of the gate. You know, I think one one thing
that's sort of changed his, don't you guys feel that the NFL
was a little bit because last year it just all broke the day.
Do you think it was a little bit like?
All right guys like let's let's let's say actually wait and do
the legal tampering period like we don't every deal doesn't need
to come out at once and you got to think a fair few number of
teams are probably trying to decide if they have the cap
space to get Godwin or Sutton or Evans, or Judy, or Hopkins or
whoever and whatever that Starts to settle teams are going to be
looking at like equina me. Steve Brown is my second wide
receiver, or whatever. Just fill your name in Jeff
Nelson A Galore Richie j-just. Whoever.
And they're gonna be like, this is not a ton of a way to run
professional football organization.
I think it's a good point that trade market is what I was this
entire offseason so far, like the wide receiver trades are
going to be coming like big-time players moving and I think every
team has been thinking that, but like no one's found the right
value for that yet. I think there could be one Trade
that explains a bunch of them. But yeah the free agency class
is very good. I don't have the rookie class is
very good either so I thought great.
Yeah, we're going to be a big part of this.
Yeah. And the Bears trade was cool to
see but that one obviously doesn't like only one team has
the number one picking and is looking to trade down.
So this not doesn't really help teams, like find the value but
you'd like Mike Evans. Got to be also, write like down,
you're having, it's got to be elsewhere.
Like this stuff has to happen, doesn't it?
Yeah, Brandon Cooks has to be also Brandin Cooks.
Yeah, yeah there's a bunch of them.
Maybe it happens right before the draft.
So I'm still holding out hope but it's like makes a little
more difficult to kind of gauge like stacking and all that stuff
because like we know like what four or five of the top 30 wide
receivers and fantasy, many things could get moved and their
status is going to be massively different.
So it makes it fun to kind of speculate though for sure well
Sam is not here today but his charts are here.
We've got a little bit of tweaks on not.
There might be a better way to share these.
I think he said he loaded them in the site but I can't find
them. So you have to deal with the
sidebar but the He adjusted these and I think a very sharp
way where they're now based on percentage change.
So we're getting a little bit more of guys, higher up the
board. Although it's interesting
because the biggest Riser is Rashad Penny, who was a very
late round pick and has risen up.
I guess 238, but you're seeing Garrett Wilson, he seemed just
for changes in ATP, but he's moved in a very, very expensive
part of the draft. So I like this change to the
Chart, you're seeing more of, you know, some guys higher up
boards rather than just the sleeper types.
Yeah, totally makes sense that, I mean that's what we want.
Like we don't we don't need to be we don't want to be talking
about, you know, the 260 Chase Brown every single week, you
know, won't run away one way or or the other and this as the the
penny start is fascinating because you could just tell me
any story about Richard pennant you know you could tell me
Rashad penny is is a healthy scratch while tray sermon you
know Hayden's boy is finally you know returning to prominence.
You could tell me, Richard Penny scored 14 rushing touchdowns you
could tell me he gets hurt and training camp and we never see
him again. I mean it just he feel He and
dr. Foreman both feel like I would
believe anything. You tell me about them right
now. Well he'd what's your what's
your your kind of philosophy? It's that if the guys making is
a guaranteed money or total contract less than the BBM
prize, that's that's our warning sign, right?
Guaranteed money for this year is a pretty pretty good
indicator. Well, he's in total contract
less than last year's. BBM prize, right?
Have you seen stuff? See a bad penny guy.
Guy broke his leg and he count and can't fucking outer and
crane on his cash. You got out her and me.
I mean, yeah, it's tough. But these running backs though
and we haven't released best Ball Mania for prizes yet, so
it's still TBD. So I think you can draft him.
Now until BBM for prizes come out and then walked out, okay?
Alright, that's a loophole you can as long as you don't know.
It's I mean, that's the thing about penny is that, he's just
so fucking good. Like that's I mean that's really
that's like my really high level.
You know, sophisticated analysis of how many fantasy points he's
going to score. Is that like when that guy is on
the field and the to whatever team he's playing for is giving
him the ball, he just is just ripping off fantasy points and
and he's not going to catch the ball at all because he didn't
catch the ball at all. In Seattle.
Jalen hurd's doesn't really throw the running backs and when
he does, they remove whoever their leading rusher is, but I
don't care. I just think like, I mean,
obviously, Asleep for best ball. I think this price is totally
fine like 138, where it's something, he's gonna get way
higher than that. Yeah, it's gonna get way higher
than that. But even even in like manage
that, it's like, Richard Petty's active, like I just am going to
start him. I think I just am not, I'm not
sweating. Yeah, I'm not.
It's just like it's like the same deal with Miles Sanders
like Mi Sanders so useless in 2021.
No touchdowns like just the most useless guy but the whole team
got better Sanders rolled in change.
He just ran way better. Yeah, I think you want to think
about Penny around pick 100? Are you taking him there?
Because I think that's where he's going to get up to.
Yeah, there's like the the rug pull rb3 is that the NFL draft
can absolutely spoil like Rashad White Range.
All of those type of backs, James Cook, I think that he
belongs right there because the Eagles took could still add a
like kendre Miller in the round for something like that.
And really, throw a whole a big wrench into this but he has more
upside to Then like Rashad white types of stuff, just because, or
maybe not all the way upside but like an easier path to rb2
status, just because the offense and I wasn't expecting as money
to be very big at all because the Eagles are very smart about
this and he they can just play the incentive game with them
because he's done so little with it.
So the money thing doesn't really matter to me.
They're not going to invest a lot of money into the position,
no matter what. So I think just to be let the
best man win. And like, His best performance.
If he's healthy is, there's not a rookie running back in this
class where the Eagles will be drafting these guys that are.
So that's going to be better than Richard Penny based off of
it's like on-field performance. Well, these Vaughn obviously,
but oh God, please please, I think that the interesting thing
about this class as well is that it's a lot of guys who project
to be like versions of Rashad Penny, you know, like you're
hoping like oh man he could be Rashad penny.
So like if tanks tank Bigsby or Kendra Miller ends up there
whatever like I'm not shaking in my boots, I'm like I have the
better version with Rashad Penny, I guess if taiji Spears
went there, maybe that would like, that's a different
archetype, but they have Kenny gained while.
I don't know that they would do that.
Like they already kind of have that guy too.
So yeah, I think the fact that it's the Eagles makes me a
little less concerned about the money, but then again, like
RoboCop was pointing out. Like, you could they could cut
Rashad Penny if he's not healthy, if you just doesn't
look good in training camp, like this is not a contract that
Asher's he is on the way. Week one roster and he's coming
off a broken leg. So there's definitely RIT like
if he's a ninth round pick, it could be, you know, I drafted a
lot of Road, Joe and around 10:00 and 11:00 last year around
this time you can with the money's not there you have a lot
of downside risk. You know, there's there's game
day and active risk that type of stuff, I think Penny he just has
flashed so much one healthy that I'm more skeptical that that
type of outcome occurs but it's in the Change patterns real
quick. Pat are you concerned that
tracer was making more money than candy cane?
Well for the Eagles this year? Well, is it is that just because
of service Time stuff and where they were trapped Edition?
But is that what it is? Yeah, like a hundred thousand
dollar difference. So, there is the highest paid
Eagles running back technically, Boston Scott because of service
time. Yeah, that's amazing.
I mean, so so short short Boston.
So I would Really just say I don't care how much any of these
guys are getting paid, because they're spending like four and a
half million dollars in the position, my guess, actually
knowing how the Eagles are, my guess is the guy they draft,
whatever round. They probably fourth, fifth,
sixth seventh round. It's actually not going to be a
big guy. It's not going to be the tray
sermon type. It's actually going to be the
gain well type because gain well is already heading in the year
three of his contract they don't care dude.
Gain well see ya it's like we're not where the The Eagles are,
the Eagles are probably the number one team that puts the
nerd NFL Twitter shit onto the field.
So they're not, they are not getting gain well, three years
twelve million dollars when his contract is up there saying what
they're saying, let someone else do that.
So I would actually bet like Zach Evans a dude I mean I just
I'm going to keep trying to meme do spawn into existence but you
guys know what I mean like they're there.
Maybe, maybe maybe Devon Devon option, A, you know, he doesn't
watch Davis. You should watch Keaton
Mitchell, ECU, he's really fast, he's real sad bigger than do
spawn and he's more athletic and the dude has like I hate these
small type of running backs usually for Fantasy purposes.
But this guy's tape, I was like, okay, this guy is pretty pretty.
I mean, I'd wait, are you not in on do Swan?
This is a deuce Vaughn show. Yeah, this is a do so he's not I
know I think same reason. Yes, yeah, yes, but we're still
in. That's what that's what Crane
and I are like out. We did a post combine show.
We're both like yeah, we're going to be playing this dude
usfl DFS in two years but but I'm in I'm in on because I'm in
on him because if he's not an undrafted free agent, if a team
takes him, it's going to mean that the coach or the director
of player Personnel saw something and was like, we can
specifically use this because you're not going to draft the
shortest player in NFL combine history by accident like that.
It's just not, it's not something that that happens, you
know? Gotta test, man, go crush your
pro day. Oh please and the seventh, man.
You're going to see the ticker. They're going to draft them as a
motivational speaker, huh? Be over.
Now he's gonna get he's me a special teams Ace and year 7 and
your seven when he's done nothing for your Dynasty.
I could I could I could see that actually.
Well, it says he too small to even be good on special teams
though. Like can 180-pound man, tackle,
the average punt. Returner know he's the punt
returner. That's the, that's the game.
Oh okay. I can see that.
Yeah. All right.
Last couple things on Penny. I've seen him go behind Kenny
gain while still that seems wrong to me.
I feel like you want to, okay? You guys are with that.
And then one thing that came up on the road old football show as
we, we talked about Penny versus David Montgomery.
You know, another kind of free agents guy, although he's not on
the risers which is interesting. I don't want him to Montgomery
in any situation. Okay, versus Jamaal Williams.
No, no versus Sanders. That's who he said, Penny
Sanders are Montgomery. Where you guys on those three?
Penny last a view, the market will agree with that.
I think will be multiple round difference, just because so many
people are gonna be out on the injuries.
I think Sanders has the easiest path to our be too, but I think
that Montgomery has easiest path to like, okay better better
question, which one of them has the biggest rise from the end of
best Ball Mania for the best ball.
Resurrection, which one which one sees the largest Delta
between where they're drafted in week 1 and week 6?
Montgomery, I think has a chance to like it's totally fine you
it's for Melanie it's for healthy Penny weeks.
Itsy-bitsy 10. He's healthy.
That's the answer. Yeah, but right here's why David
Montgomery, I'm not in the value where he was providing when he
was a good fantasy running back in Chicago was not ever related
to his efficiency. It was just him getting the
ball. It's and because they would you
just take him off the field on third Downs.
I mean, Jamaal Williams son. Run his goddamn ass off last
year to get the, to accumulate the touchdowns that he did like,
how many times did I'm on Ross, ain't Brown get tackled at the
one-yard? Yeah, at least five times a
Montross, a brown got tackled at the one-yard line and so then
you're talking about the guy who's in the ass end of a
timeshare. Who's got to just get three yard
touchdowns to get Spike weeks and that just feels pretty well.
Yes, the thing I'd push back on it.
So for I just answer my own question.
I have I would have Penny first I like Penny the most of these
three guys. I think that's where the upside
comes. That's where the one-week upside
comes in. But I think I'd have Montgomery
to just because I feel like it could be the Leonard.
Fournette thing again from two years ago where they're just
like, you know what, we're trying to make the playoffs in
this guy, like, doesn't screw anything up ever now.
Does he ever do anything good? Nope.
But we totally, she's clearly do not like the Andres with
clearly. Dan Campbell is as like had
enough of DeAndre switch. He could treat him tomorrow.
Be surprised. That's a great Point.
Yeah, I agree. So it's just like I could see
80% snap, sure. David Montgomery in the fantasy
playoffs and that would really, really help you in the ninth
round. Really.
Would I didn't come in time, I would hate earlier, I didn't
come easy, go away earlier. I think he's gonna be right next
to DeAndre Swift like round 6-4 in the middle of the Dead Zone.
Well now billion dollars is so much money like to me, it just
like look at that offense, who really cares?
If Swift gets hurt or gets traded or like that here, We've
seen Montgomery, even if we don't think that he's gonna like
have Breakaway plays that he can he can play Passing downs.
And I think that's the difference between Jamal and
David Montgomery is there's a chance that he steal some of the
Andres wisp asking for just because he's done it before,
he's a better pass protector and that they just Valium like, 80
million dollars is so much money in the running back market.
And they, they had going back to the Hard Knocks last year.
That was like a perfect chance to show off DeAndre Swift.
He could be like a total NFL like fan favorite and they were
going out of their way. To like talk about like how he's
not Tough Enough and how his Visions bad and stuff like on,
like the official NFL show, they were like talking shit on him.
Openly was very very strange and then they give them all all that
work and now they give David Montgomery all this money, I'd
it seems like Montgomery's got like a league winning pass path,
just because the offense, I think it is current price.
I agree. He's got, he's going to pick
100. He's not on this risers list.
We talk about closing line value a lot on this podcast.
Just shout out to Sam. By the way.
He he mentioned a couple times in the Discord that he was a
little bummed not to be on the show because he had previously
selected Rashad penny for his closing line value, flag plant.
And that one is going to hit in a big way but it sounds like
from what you're saying Hayden. We should be drafting
Montgomery, even if we don't love them because like I want no
parts of him in the sixth round, like I will be happily passing.
That's, that's gonna end up there.
He's gonna end up there, like you should be drafting my pick.
100, What about James, Conner? As a kind of like a couple of
years ago, James Conner where he was getting the Reds Red Zone
work. It was the same exact contract.
He's not out of the prime of his career.
No one really loves James Conner.
No one really loves David Montgomery except the coaches
and the offense was good with the Cardinals during James.
Connors big breakout and we know the lions are going to be so
good. So like James Conner, was like
an eighth. Ninth round pick.
I can see an eighth ninth round pick paying off with an be my
third. My third eye is starting to open
here like I'm seeing the issue would be is if Swift
miraculously ingratiate himself to the coaching staff, somehow,
because I think one thing that you actually could could say
about Dan Campbell, that seems more true about him than regular
NFL coaches is. He's like he seems like he's not
going to play guys. Who are stinking, you know, like
like you come on Rusty Brown. Probably would not have gotten
as many chances on. You know, if he was playing for
the don't know, Pittsburgh Steelers or something, like, he
probably would've been playing behind Steven Sims, but he just,
he rewards guys who are playing really well.
And like, if Swift shows up in great shape, doesn't get hers.
You know, I mean, which is like, you know, obviously that could
like we don't have a ton of evidence to suggest that is
happening. And David Montgomery probably
will be Dan Campbell's, like favorite dude, ever.
But Swift is so much better than him efficiency, why's that?
If swept his playing well it's hard for me to imagine
Montgomery doing anything other than much more Williams did like
that is a problem that Montgomery is like not good.
That seems to be that's a generally I do think nah.
There's a difference between we thinking that he's not good
versus what coaches thinking, like every Junction going back
to drop is about the ground. Yeah, but a, the Bears are good.
Yeah, and the Bears coach has soured on him too, you know,
it's like the Bears coat. I mean, the Bears freaking
signed on to form and, and Travis Homer.
Like the most like hand in the dirt grinding running backs ever
and they decided David Montgomery was like not good
enough. The money was way different than
I'm going back to the Lions evaluation is of and even if
let's say the owner, Swift is like the alpha here.
Now that we know David Montgomery is clearly capable of
three down, work and attached to a good offense.
Where would we be drafting him strictly as a Uncuff type of
guy, he would still be 10th 11th round.
Yeah, that's why, that's why I do.
Think you should be drafting him now.
I really am. So like I think sixth seventh
round for the chance for him to be the lead back and the worst
case you have a handcuff that would we would probably be
ranking as the number one handcuffed possibly in the
entire league just because we have so much faith in the Lions
offense. It's just the the meme in
drafting this year is going to be like, let's find this year's
Josh Jacobs like boring guy who's like kind of sucked and
and And whatever. And like I can see David
Buncombe refitting into that stereotype and I don't mean the
number one thing is, I just don't think David Montgomery is
going to catch that many passes on this team.
Maybe there's Sanders might be. He has a case to be the Josh
Jacobs, or it's like guy were just over goes to a team.
They just a Sanders was Sanders. Was that guy last year?
Yeah, I kind of was, but now he could potentially be catching
him some more dump offs from a rookie quarterback and when he
was with juice daily back in Eagles, he had like 67 and
fifty. Argit's and those have gone away
with Jalen hurd's, but they brought to Staley in.
And then his first move was to bring back mile Sanders and
those were his best fantasy ears.
Like based off of like projected points not Biff based off a
random touchdowns. Yeah, I think like if you're
taking these guys at the very end of, you know, ninth round
range, like it feels pretty good.
Actually Sanders up to pick 90. Wide receiver completely falls
off in that range anyway so like it's a good time to Pivot to
running back. It's a good time.
Like historically. That's been a pretty good time
to select running backs and I think all three of these guys
might settle, they feel like dead zone backs to me, so I
don't know if they're going to get price like them.
I don't know if they're going to get into the fifth round at any
point, but it's certainly possible.
Especially when projection start to drive things a little bit
more. What are you guys?
Thoughts on the old running backs and like their value?
Because something I've been Thinking about is just there's
there's not going to be an easy projection like for fantasy
running back because all the old guys that have been volume Hogs,
like we're talking about age Cliffs this year so I think
there's going to be some uncomfortable, Karen Jones,
Dalvin cook all the mara that whole pocket.
Right? Joe mix-ins in that range.
So I think I'll make somebody's going to be a bangle.
Yeah, I can see them getting rid of him too.
But like somebody has to like the NFL slogan a rush for yards
and still rushed for two touchdowns like Going to be some
new faces that are just absorbing workloads that we have
never seen you do this before. And these are the type of guys
that to me like, okay, the 25 year old, it's just going to be
taking work from what we've seen from, like the 2829, you know,
you already you already know who the Bengals guy is.
Is Chris Evans? Oh, I really wish, but I really
did not see it. I think they're gonna sign tells
me getting Chris Evans to the second summer.
The Bangles are The Bangles are right now.
Living the drill tweet, the drill candles.
Tweet because in 12 months, they're going to have 50 percent
of their salary cap allocated to jobber old Jamar Chase and
Tegan's. So they have to find any cost
controlled labor, they can and if they're if they were able to
get treyvion Williams or Chris Evans into the semblance of what
semaj perine and mix and did for them.
They would be ecstatic but I think Hayden is probably correct
they probably mean Devin Singletary.
Kareem hunt has been tossed out there because he's already kind
of got paid. So maybe he just wants to go be
a lead back somewhere. Like if you could pay cream hunt
eight million dollars or Joe Mixon 11 million dollars just
like no contest. You're just gonna pay eight
million dollar dream. I guess those two million and
it's a good class to like bring in cheap cream hunt and then
draft a fifth and a sixth. I'm running back.
You'll probably hit on something or go get the earnest Johnson
but your interest Johnson. Yeah, so much so much cheaper.
Any back? Labor Do we think there's a
market for a Dalvin cook, trade my eye there, because that,
they, they gave what Madison got seven, and a half million
dollars. I think guaranteed and he's, I
mean, Madison is always been good and it feels like maybe the
cook always being injured and always having the shoulder thing
is starting to be a little bit bothersome, you know, from, from
a team playing golf or that exploded as a team that was
interested. Everybody's exploded to the
Dolphins. Mr. I thought he was gonna get
But then he had off Seasons shoulder surgery again.
And one of the reasons why you probably did it is because you
had a two million dollar guaranteed bonus that kicks in
like today, and since they can't release him because he wouldn't
pass a physical right now. He's going to be locked on for
two more 2 million more dollars, which is he makes the team less
incentivize to actually record sigh.
That's so we'll see. We'll see.
They can still do it but it's, they would Save or like the
those two million dollars are no longer being saved.
Those are actually endowments paycheck.
Some of the chat here bringing FF disguise.
Bring it up Damien. Harris, who I like Steven Harris
still exists, right? He's still on this planet, he
still like a pretty solid or lie down rush.
I haven't heard anything about them and I mean I don't know he
seems like a guy that I would happily bring in if I was the
Bangles you know why don't the chief's son?
Damien Harris to be honest, he just he what led the league in
rushing touchdowns two years ago?
I'm shocked and he's like a bell jet guy.
Alabama guy thought that there would be like a power team that
would want him. I realize, I wonder if actually
being a Belichick guy counts against you in free agency
because, you know, like, They do they get their production and
sets their specific way, you know what I mean?
Where it's like once you've been used up by the Patriots you got
nothing left to give kind of the night.
Yeah although he didn't sign his rookie year.
It's true so you can go back to the The Bangles.
The reason I picked Singletary is because like that offense.
How often they're in like like shocking and stuff and how Joe
Borough operates that they love pass protection, facts?
And like singletary's the guy that has been passed protecting
out of, like, pretty good rate on third Downs, forever.
That's why some object here and played so much of his mixed in.
So I think that would be, you know, you know, who one of the
best pass blockers in NFL history is You might have heard
from a guy named Ezekiel Elliott.
Dallas Cowboys. Like it's actually see that no
deep, I totally see it. My brother-in-law, my
brother-in-law texted me yesterday and was like I think
the Chiefs are going to sign Zeke like I've he was like
fucking with me, but like I was just thinking about is like, I
don't actually could kind of see because one he's gonna want to
sign with a good team. He's not going to go sign with
some shitty team or whatever and to a good Can talk themselves
into Zeke the same way, teams talk themselves into levia bail
and will Sean McCoy. Like he's so good in pass
protection and, you know, he's gonna, this is get those, those
short yardage, you know, how different is.
He Co Elliot from the chief signing, Le'Veon Bell, and
LeSean, McCoy, and Darryl Williams, and all these old not
different, especially because those guys did nothing, someone
the dangles down. The bagels, are the team that
needs the Running back spot. The most because I'm with you, I
think that mix-ins. Well, we gonna get out of there
and like they have nobody there's lost like they don't
they need to protect Joe, Broz knee more than anything else,
like the rushing yards, really don't matter to them that much.
They just need to make sure it Burrows up, right?
So Z Kelly over, there would make some sense.
How do we play this in drafts? Besides not drafting mixing,
which I'm already doing because there's enough backs out there,
right? There's cream hunt, Ezekiel,
Elliott Damien. Harris, there's Leonard
fournette. So, on any of those guys could
go there, And you take the uncertainty, you take any of the
uncertain guys. You're just taking shots cake.
You're just taking shots and I think you take shots on lots of
the third tier of running back prospects to, because that could
be a spot. Yeah, that's easier.
I think because those guys sort of, like, more of a bet on
Talent play, maybe they kind of bubble up at the end of the
season, no matter where they look.
I don't want to burst anyone's bubble, but Leonard, fournette
is going to be a big part of some team's offense. 2023, look,
I know I love ya. I mean, I hate to I hate to tell
you guys. As this, but like, Jerry has
Jerry Jones is probably already called letter from its agent to
see if he's willing to take like a real small paycheck, another
one would be Eckler, gets treated in for and it goes to
the Chargers. I don't think I can stomach it,
but it's very mean hair soldiers.
How about billionaires to the charger?
We seek with calls. I gotta think Alan Moore's, like
had enough All right here Zeke again.
All right, let's move on to this other.
The stack that I we have a rising stack DJ more and Justin
Fields. I was curious how the market
would handle this. They're into people are, they're
way too into it, man. They need their way to.
It's okay. They need to zoom out on the
chart. I will say it's a nice little
stack that you can make. How I think one reason that
you're seeing the increase is because it's like what's that
double click. Yeah the 45 it's a is it the 56
or Three Majors, three four, where are you?
Where you take one and then you grab the other and and to do it
to make it work. You kind of got to reach a
little so I wonder if that's driving this at all and I have
done it. It's a fun it's a fun move.
It definitely is driving it. I mean we saw this last year in
Vespa Mania 3 by how the Buccaneers a DPS mirrored
Christian McCaffrey's. There was the the bills atp's
mirror. It was like it was like digs and
Allen's atp's mirrored each other the cargos guys.
Bronco. Yeah, so I think, I think that
is a huge factor and we're so excited about Fields, but there
is literally nobody to stack them with like that, right?
Got us excited. So now DJ more goes that I think
that the projections are going to come out and then we're going
to sort by projections versus rankings, or to say, how are we
drafting DJ more here like it's so hard to make the this like
math work for DJ more at this price tag.
I get that. It's like you want access to the
Justin Fields, thirty five point game and throws a touchdown.
Mm and 100 yards, ID GM, more than you're like going to win
the tournament. So I don't even projections,
half the line up. Exactly.
But I do really don't understand this one at all.
If you give the Bears 10 more passing attempts per game than
they had last year, does he DJ Morris projection even hit this?
Well, yeah, that's the question because I think what the Bears
are doing here, you know, you're bringing a DJ more.
You're actually showing faith in Justin fields.
They really seem like very ambivalent about whether or not
he was going to the quarterback on for last year and I think
that these projections are fragile.
We're like the Bears were so extreme with their their
password over expected. Just being super, super low.
I'm pulling it up right now. It's like off the charts low and
is the fewest pass attempts since the 1979 Chiefs.
Yeah, they're - 14 % password of expected - 10.
Sent. Now, how does pass rate over
expected account for sacks and scrambles?
That would be. That would be because I don't
know. The Meadows are, those are pass
attempts. It's so that makes it right
back. It's Dropbox.
Yeah, they used to makes it even worse because Justin Fields has
been sacked on 13% of his career, drop backs.
And he also was led the NFL in scramble rate which means that
basically, Like what roughly 20% of the time with the Bears even
call a pass play. A Target didn't even get to
read. Yeah yeah and Sachs has been a
big issue for him like that's a weakness of 13% of your career
is like twice as bad as Joe Borough.
Who's like giant Achilles heel that keeps him from being a
truly great quarterback. Is that he eats too many sex?
Yeah, yeah. That's a concern but I do think
like when you get to this level of run heaviness like we saw
this with the A couple of years ago where it's like enough
things kind of just like went against like their preferred
plan where they they were run first but they weren't extremely
run-heavy and the difference between where you're probably
going to have to project the Bears and where they could be if
they're just like a normal run. First team is like pretty large.
So I actually do think that for the purposes of trying to take
down a top-heavy, big basketball tournament.
There's I think there's upside here.
If you're the other thing is like in the sense of you're
doing expensive stack, you want there to be upside if the Bears
play like they did last year, the team is dead, but like that.
Well that's what you're already taking on this stack to hit in a
major way. So like that's real to steal an
argument from one master chess. Liam winner Vespa Mania to this
does look like the classic horrible Advance rate really
high up side in the championship round because my guess is
they're gonna to be a lot of weeks where DJ more has one
reception for 18 yards. Well, if it's that then I think
it's going to be a my Kevin situation where like it's a
benefit Vance rate that you don't even win when he does go
off. Yeah.
Tell you know, I think you need, I think you needed to be like we
were just a bit off on the projections and then you get the
weekly upside, you're going to need the eclipse.
I mean, I've traded away DJ more in the two leagues where I had
them. And Dynasty, I just II there, I
knew there was going to be a little bit.
Exuberance. I just I am and I'm happy to be
wrong because I always like when quarterback situations go from
being bad to be good and I still think Fields will be really good
for Fantasy, but he's got like there's there's like two full
things like one. He's got a lot of work to do as
a pastor in general, and they have to let it pass more.
So, that's tough developmental curve.
Anyone else? Jump out here on the risers?
Yeah. The Terrence Marshall.
Feels like the 2023. Version of prashad Perryman.
Who is the guy who's the guy last year?
There was another guy who was in like the bizarre, but he was
more expensive. Yeah.
Just like basically the idea of like, someone's got to get the
targets and like, actually, it doesn't have to be terrorists.
Marshall, it could be shy Smith, it could be Lavista Schnell.
It could be a rookie we've never heard of.
It could be Adam thielen, you know, like I bet Adam thielen
scores more fantasy points than terrorists Marshall.
If he does. In fact, sign with the Panthers
Can't, I can't live in that world.
Garrett Wilson. If once once we get the news, is
he going to go ahead of Davante Adams?
Like 11th 12th overall. Yeah, probably, yeah.
Like I don't see like I don't think I'll compete with digs but
because like Josh it people want to drop Josh Allen and forces
Rogers. But I can see, where does where
does Elijah more go? To the paralyzed.
Ya do ya? I see you got the joke out first
house. I was gonna know, it's all what
you like, Tony Leung que. No, thank you.
Okay, I can't do that, right. He's going to the Packers right
mean, that seems obvious, I think Corey Davis is going, but
the problem is, there's no way that Elijah Moore's playing over
Allen Lazard and like No One's Gonna draft Allen Lazard.
So, I think the way to play it is probably just draft Alma's
are because nobody wants to do it.
Why isn't here's two things? Let's go back to our Go back for
a second. Why is it Tony Pollard on this
list? Maybe, it's, maybe it's, but
it's already priced in. It was already pregnant, think
it was. And then, why?
Why isn't Bruce homelessness? They probably just missed it.
Yeah, I think we're like one positive report away from Bruce
Hall from raising the expectations.
Yeah, basically, just like Kenneth Walker.
And those guys, those it's there's something a couple young
guys. I'm surprised like, Ramon Ray
Stevenson kind of goes as late as he does.
That's somebody, I thought it was gonna go from, like, third
fourth round 2 into the second round.
Jump. I think the James Robinson
signings good, but I think each one of these rookies away.
Yeah. And James Robinson's stinks.
I don't even know the team. What was your favorite bad
Patriots contract. The this week, I've a Long
Snapper, the most guaranteed money ever.
For a Long Snapper is really on brand for the Patriots, but her
to be one year, one year, nine million dollars after spending
like the GDP of Barbados on Hunter Henry and John Ruth Smith
was also pretty good. It's just hard.
Yeah it's all it's all pretty funny though.
When did you contract originally looks just like the Jacobi
contracts like we got worse to Kobe for the same price.
One really freeing thing is that I'm not going to have to psyop
myself. And did you just refuse to this
off? Yeah.
Like I feel like if he would have signed the three-year
through 33 with Kansas City and I would have had to have done
this with my well, you know, he got banged up and there was
those two games where he really does and you know he was the big
play in the Super Bowl Mahomes will trust him if you still only
23 so you know yeah. Alright let's look at let's look
at the followers here. Duty Davis, you called this
right after the combine and you said, I mean he it's done for
him dude. II talked.
So JJ, tried to put me back, like I was off the ledge JJ,
tried to put me back on the ledge a little bit yesterday
which is basically, like guys of this profile even when their
final year production stinks, some NFL team is going to be
like, nope, I watched him in 2020, he was awesome.
And I want him on my team so maybe he doesn't go to day
three. My issue is I just don't even
think he'll succeed in that. Like, even if he His around for
you pick. I think I just think it'll
stink. So I'm out, Eckler should be a
way bigger fall, or though, Austin Eckler outside of an
environment where they force-feed him. 103 targets is
going to be like, we're looking at like fancy Kenneth gain.
Well, in his range of outcomes, I just, it's really bad.
I think I agree. I'm gonna plead the fifth on
this one. Well, well, you could mean one
thing you could argue is like, no team.
Like, teams are not trading for running backs, like this 2023.
Like he's just going to have to play for the Chargers.
Yeah, but it's also like if things are broken down between
him and the team and then, you know, they're looking to add,
are they going to add charbonnet?
You know, or they going to add well, they've done that for many
agents, that 19 years. Well, yeah, but this little
work. Josh Kelley didn't work.
Kalin balázs didn't. Marry Roundtree didn't work, but
this time and this time, it'll work.
I think charbonnet is better than those guys.
But, I mean, it's, it's Damien Harris, it's a movie.
It's like the professor of the Dark Arts at Hogwarts is just a
curse position. This is Sony, Michelle was
getting goal, line carries in 2022 for a team that was trying
to make the playoffs. Yeah, Isaiah Spiller.
I I guess I mean I thought he would have had completely
forgotten that they and people were jazzed about.
He was a first-round rookie pick Oof.
All right. Another rookie.
Sean Tucker, a follower. He's this is an ATP seems to be
pointing out this ATP. Four weeks is not really making
any sense. I have not really seen much
draft buzz on him. He seems sort of like a lot,
like Chase Brown when I look at the kind of the overall like
archetype profiles and Chase Brown, just had a great combine.
So I'm sort of like why are we, why are we preferring him to
chase Brown? When Dinah initial dynasty
rankings, came out for this class, like in January, then
that's like obviously, they call spreadsheet people.
They loved Sean Tucker early declare really productive and
then some people thought he was gonna run like a 44.
I like to push back on this. I actually think the early
Dynasty. People are more film guys
because they're they're dead January January, rankings are
film dudes. Because that's I think you guys
are still gambling in our spreadsheets aren't ready yet
Hayden. It's it.
Larry. Yeah, but the people drafting on
Underdog are going to be the guys that are going to be the
spreadsheet guys that are getting it to drafts early to
some degree. I think I'm stronger.
The film guys, this is where you see, I'm blaming establish the
runs and that's my super high coming in.
I remember being late, I'm blaming establish the run.
I think that they had Sean Tucker Hazard before initial.
Okay. All right.
Blame ETR yeah I mean that's it's so funny that websites
influence over these markets. It's like if they're wrong if
they're wrong on someone but they're really aggressive.
On like off by like 30 spots. It's like people will just
because they just draft. They put their rankings in the
applet and it'll never change, right?
So like if they just have someone and and look, we've all
done rankings, sometimes you just put a guy somewhere, you
know, it's not. It's like it's like I've got,
it's like the curtain there. I gotta everyone.
You gotta put everyone somewhere so you don't really have strong
feelings on your dude. Who's 153rd versus 185th.
But When you're drafting by another sites rankings and not
off ATP. It could just mean you look at
your thing and you're like, oh, I got this guy ranked 20 spots
ahead. I'm taking every time.
Obviously, you know, it's just it and, you know, it's not it's
not their fault either. Like it's a way you have to do
it but it is it's just kind of one of those things.
That's funny. I've watched him.
I don't think it's very good, he seems fine.
He actually to your spreadsheet point.
The one thing he does pop in is backfield Dominator rating,
which Blair Andrews is noted You know, that's the thing that kind
of showed Phillip Lindsay that was gonna say, that's a Philip
Lindsay stat. Yeah, it's a Philip Lindsay,
stat and it's, it's generally pretty good at identifying later
guys who don't have draft capital.
And so I guess like Sean Tucker. Someone that I'd be pretty
interested in at the very end of drafts.
But what I haven't understood is why he goes, you know, a Durant,
he was going around like pick 122 start ahead of Devon a
chain. It's like a chain might be a
second round pick. So I'm not taking a guy who has
risk of falling. To like the sixth round / JJ JJ
hates a chain by the way. Really?
It's like, yeah. It's like, oh, that's like his,
it's like, yeah. It's like too small just because
his JJ's model his like, z-score whatever, look really heavily
weights weight. So, if you're like 188 Pounds,
you're just basically not showing up.
That's what my model and Seth carries about the most to.
It's just wait just matters so much like that's why I like
Roshan's interesting to me. Henry Miller's interesting.
He's the early too. And has the size Dwayne McBride?
No one's going to like him because he caught literally to
pass. What's he run though?
I'm worried about his speed. I went into his tape thinking
that, and then I thought he had a little bit more burst.
He was injured. He definitely a Colorado.
He's going to Colorado Senate. Like slow.
He's like and then it's just like that.
He never speeds up again. What?
We'll see. If he runs at his pro day.
I don't know when it is but he was injured but that's kept his
ATP all the way down, but these guys are like, classic, the
Brian Vincent's of the classroom.
Like we don't love him but he's actually on the field and then
all these other guys really aren't.
That's why I like Zach charbonnet so much.
Like I think Zach charbonnet has the size and he catches passes
like to me like there's your upside case where I think you
guys are gonna look at cam Akers type of thing where he could
just like, he's not going to be an amazing pass catcher, but he
could be out there all the time. Yeah, I Compton to James Conner.
And he said, I, I prefer, I prefer betting on dudes, who
just got the ball a shit ton for like Blood college programs like
that's just like such a good asymmetric bet for it's like, oh
yeah, a lot of these guys are going to flame out, you're not
going to get any production from the many ways but I like I had a
lot of Brian Robinson last year before he got shot that ended up
with way too much, Antonio Gibson, but because it was just
a really good my guy. I think they're two guys like
that. This year, tank.
Bigsby is one of them. He's totally nothing special.
Not that fast like whatever. And then I just I can't get it
like this. Roshan Johnson thing is Like
some team is going to be like your Smosh pee right now.
You are going to keep our quarterback from getting killed
basically, I've outrun Shawn. He took Bijan Robinson, a
first-round running back off. The field on past dance.
That's crazy. Yeah, I need to drop more.
Oh my, I think he's, he's like one of those losses never going
to pop for me, but it's just going to end up scoring fantasy
points. So, he's to play quarterback.
I think he went to Texas as a quarterback and they do differ.
Everyone is able to love the star.
He was a four-star High School. Quarterback recruit who went to
Texas and only change positions because basically he was like,
Texas has nine quarterbacks and at a given time, and every
running back at her, and I want to play, he's going down three.
That's my early early bold. Take okay.
Well, he's going late, round, three, and then I'm with this,
he's gonna get steamed up, but he simply pack.
He's gonna go to the Bangles and play the semaj perine role as
like Zeke's, like handcuffed and end up winning Zeke's.
Handcuffed is a bet. I will always make.
Yeah, it has been a good Roshan Johnson.
And on this chart, you see, he looks over valued, but that's
with expected draft position, outside chart.
The chart doesn't know, the chart doesn't melt it Roshan has
that dog. Once he's pick a tea, you know,
sudden he's firmly in the green here.
Green here. So I like that.
One a change. I hear what you're saying about
the wait, but like there is something to like he's super
fast and he's going to get drafted a Miley same thing as as
do spawn words, like some coaches going to fall in love
with that, the dude being so fast.
Do you think I think that the way and the not in the speed
that wasn't like, electrically fast, you know, there's talk
like he could be in the 40s, he wasn't still very, very fast but
does that is he like, does he get drafted after Roshan or
something? Is he a late third round?
I think he went. I think he cost himself,
whatever the difference between a second round, and third round
contract, is by not running in the 40s.
You can't be your claim to fame. Can't be, I was, I was, he won
some event and NCAA track and field and then run.
And then not run the fastest 40 time at running back.
I think you put on weight. That's why and I think he's I
think he's gonna go round three and he's key reminds me of like
James Cook. Now I think that a chains better
than like James Cook but I think we're like headed to that type
of. Why didn't you come last year?
So maybe I won't have any. That's interesting.
Yeah, and like was like a Bell cow in the SE c--'s.
Like they'll like a Bell cow like he's getting like 30 touch
again. Bam.
That's a legit offense. So yeah, he's someone that it's
a little risky because it's just like purely a bet on draft
position. I don't love the profile, but I
do think there's upside just if the draft position comes in, he
just shouldn't be going where he's going.
In terms of closing line value, you see going to settle a pic
150. If he's a second-round pick,
which there's a good chance of like, no, he's not, he's gonna
be way higher than that. So yep.
I don't want to be all in on him right now because I don't I also
am worried about the weight, but he makes sense to mix into me,
sharpen. And you're having to pay for,
but it is still not, you're not, you're not overpaying / this
chart. So I think he's writing about
you. That's my boy, JJ, JJ was
bearish on Gibbs to same. Really, you're not that bit so.
Okay, so why aren't you that into Gibbs?
Is it because he's 1199 hidden is that is he's under 200
pounds. The, the model and the model is
a care about the exact weight. The model does care about
production and and he wasn't that productive at all day.
He caught a lot of passes. He was extremely explosive, but
they would take them out on every short yardage, they would
take them out at the goal line. He didn't get any of that stuff,
even at Georgia Tech. So, I think it's tape is
phenomenal. I understand why an NFL team
would draft him very high, but for Fantasy purposes at least on
Underdog where it's half. PPR, I can see some hesitancy
like, easier path. To 250-300 touches charbonnet
versus Gibbs. I think charbonnet can have
Inefficiency doesn't matter all that much here.
So I really like Gibbs as like a prospect.
I don't think that he's gonna be pigeonholed.
That's, it's like the worst. It's the thing we hate where the
coaches are not, it's like the same thing.
And so, you know, the Cowboys running back coach is like,
yeah, we really didn't want to give Pollard 25 touches in this
game. The zico's out and Pollard's
big. He's like to 15 years.
Yeah I compared Gibbs to Pollard assuming that's the type of role
he's going to have but like you said Pollard is 10 pounds bigger
than Jameer Gibbs. So I like Gibbs.
I wish he was going 80 at the overall instead of what 50th
overall and we'll see what happens with with the charbonnet
stuff. But there's like, Daniel
Jeremiah ranks among the 40th overall Prospect.
Obviously, he's not accounting for positional value and stuff
but like, it seems like chardonnays pretty well liked.
So, I just think the sharpen is probably a little bit earlier.
And I think that people are under estimating how.
Like, at least competent, he is on third Downs for somebody that
weighs 215 pounds. I agree that he's competent on
third Downs. Yeah, that's that's kind of what
I brought brought up cam Akers and I like the James Conner, cop
as well. It's like, I don't think he's
going to like impress anyone as a pass catcher, but I don't
think he's gonna get himself embarrassed either.
If he goes to a place where they have, like a clear pass catching
back already there. I don't think it's displacing
him but if they don't he could be that guy.
So there's like there's definitely upside, it's a little
fragile. But have we talked about a
buganda yet who Who caught a bunch of passes in college was a
stone work horse. You know, like like really
really held up. I just I guess I guess because
he has not done his pro day yet and didn't do anything at the
combine with. There's not really anything new
to say yeah. So that he was supposed to be
Superfast, right? But we don't have testing but we
don't have. I mean he's all right, with ya
know I my guess is whatever pit does their pro day.
We'll get some yeah Brugler Jeremiah all those types like
they just Never rank of inside the top ten of the rankings for
the position. So it's just like, yeah, like
he's going to go fifth rounds like then, like we're not going
to get drafted. It's a deep class.
Like I remember with some of these deep classes, a couple
years ago where I was like, guys, you guys you like don't
even get drafted. They don't even get drafted.
And it's like, so crushing, you know, it's like, dude, you
didn't expect. I was like, yep.
Not even drafted. And there's also a dude in here
who you don't think is going to get?
Drafted? Who will?
He'll be well, Mo Ibrahim, by the way, is my My Guy where it's
like in our stuff, it would be like this guy's never caught any
passes. He's 24 already, this guy's not
an NFL player and then boom, the Seahawks, take him in the fourth
round and you're like, what just happened?
Exactly. Yeah, I mean, like viewless
Jones, obviously as a receiver, but there's stuff like that
every year. We were like, what?
Yeah, I know, I think we might be McBride going earlier than
expected, like, PFF, house. Him as the running back five.
I've seen like Brugler mess around with him as like the
running back six and stuff. No hype on him.
Not going to catch passes knocking the A guy that like the
the classic like you is one of the lowest yards per hour on
I've never seen 0.16, he is like a pure to down guy but I kind of
like him. Like he's really declare pretty,
really productive? Yeah.
He's like I think like Gus Edward C.
Maybe, you know, just like kind of a, he's definitely got burst
like, he won't do, not invoke the seller, that's that words.
But I mean, you know, Gus had words, It was that, that thing a
dynasty were like, I think I have something here, you know,
for a minute, and then they drop JK Dobbins.
Well, that's running backs, right?
He's just running backs in general.
I just trained by crane. I just made a trade that they
made my skin crawl. I traded the 1084 Damien,
Pierce, and Isaiah Pacheco. Hmm.
It's where a do burfoot and superflex.
It's yeah, it's bad. But I just need running back
points. My I had I had Pollard.
That was it. There's my only guy projects for
over 100 points. This upcoming year scale to 1 to
10. How worried is the rug pull on
Damien pierce with the under 10 of 10 literal chance they end up
with these on Robinson literal chance they take charbonnet.
I would expect I would be shocked if they don't have at
least one running back by pick 100 or yeah I mean it's also the
Shanahan guys coming in And you know, we know how they do it,
they just it's like the rug pull.
And Amy, where's what's his ATP in the big boys want to make 19
right now? Yeah, well, that actually, that
actually seems measured that acts that I like I think there
was a chance, like people were saying some crazy stuff about
the, a be a lab here, like crazy stuff, you know, it's like he's
a fourth-round rookie who got benched by his college team.
So it's like, I mean, we've seen this happen so many times third.
And Michael Carter. Right?
Michael Carter. Good rookie year.
Boom. You're done.
You're back. - yeah. They get a chance and then
evaporate just like for what? It's crazy.
Yeah. And we're like really bad at
remembering that, I think we're like, we're like, oh, this
guy's. Yeah, I know.
I just trade, I just traded for him.
You don't have to worry about that.
That's fantasy. Football is stupid because you
have to trade like meaningful assets.
But running backs can go to zero like an l.a. music coin, you
know. It's like it's like, it's like
minting and nft that ends up being a rug pull.
It's like our and it's gone. It's just immediate like you
just straight, it's useless. Soon as you click the button and
my money's evaporate and my buddies.
All right, let's talk some Stacks here.
These are double stack average atp's.
Aaron Rodgers. We override it the underdog
which still hasn't gone. Green Day we override it at.
He's a jet, he's a jet for this. So I don't know this chart.
This chart always makes my head hurt a little bit.
Anything jump out to you? Yeah.
People are so fucking frothy for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
What could go wrong here? Go wrong.
Literally cumulatively drafting the Jaguars ahead of, you know,
Lamar Jackson, the 49ers, the Detroit Lions, we all think
you're going to be good. The Seahawks who we have like a
nine year track record of DK, Metcalfe and Tyler Lockett just
being the stones. Dallas way we talked about that
last week. Dallas is way too low.
Denver is probably the best. Plug your nose and bet that
Nathaniel Hackett is the worst coach of all time, and it gets
back on track this year. Like this is the the to draft
them is the seventh offense, the Jaguars, bro.
What's interesting too is that so this chart the way to look at
as a the quarterbacks are in purple.
So with some of these other Stacks like Miami, right?
You're at least getting a cheap quarterback you have to pay a
lot for Tyree kilowatt. Oh I believe that's tight.
I believe that's to head injury related.
Personally. I do too.
But hey, it's a one-week game here.
We're trying to win 3-1. Week tourneys to take down a
money. So if he's healthy and he's got
a healthy Tyreke, and waddle, you can have huge week.
So I like, I like this stack, but partly because I don't have
to pay a ton for the quarterback in a market where quarterbacks
are really expensive right now. That's not the case with the
Jaguars. Yes, he's the cheapest, but he's
still with within the top 50 pics.
You've taken your quarterback, you've taken two guys to go.
Themselves. I mean, it'd be one thing if you
could get Lawrence is like a sixth or seventh-round pick, but
this is I'm with you, it just feels expensive.
I'm not sure if I like the Cristian Kirk price tag right
now. Like any, you have to make a
decision on who Calvin Ridley is and then go from there.
I might find myself just drafting Calvin Ridley and then
guaranteed guaranteed 1,400 yards, bro.
Yeah, so I think I might just go Calvin Ridley and then go find
my stacks elsewhere. How is Ridley not on the risers?
List after that our players Tribune article, I mean that he
should be up 10 picks. I was pretty skeptical.
I like, you know, I'm in, I'm in is Josh Nora still cabal ings a
Jones to the people. He better not be, he has, he
hasn't done it yet, but we have not.
Anyone has anyone ever run is hot on at out as a Jones & Co
pretty good? So ridiculous.
It was the money thing going back to the, does he make more
money than the best Ball Mania women?
He made so much money. They Jones has a big contract
and Judy Smith Schuster. Yes.
And that's why that's why he was on.
He was like did you just sorted? The next chart is just funniest
your versus ATP and there'll be three guys, you're like, oh
that's disgusting. We have to draft way more DJ
shark or whoever it is. That's the next chart.
Yeah. Well, okay.
So any other stacks. Jump, I maintain that Carolina
Houston, it's like you're getting better, the offense is
going to improve and Houston's the one that I've done more
because I also think Bryce young is going there, so I go.
Okay, I'll get Nico Colin so I like a lot Cooks I'll take and
then it's like, if he's here. Cool, if he gets traded, I have
some up sign up and if I have Collins and Collins stock goes
up a little bit. So, you know, you take a rookie
Maybe, maybe you think that but I kind of like the cost a lot
for for Houston. Shouldn't the Raiders be kind of
interesting because we know Garoppolo we'll just feed that
short area shit and now wohlers gone and Moreau might be gone,
so they might have some tight end come in as cheap as hell.
My issue with the Raiders is are they the team to take sleves and
then now the course enacted for the fantasy playoffs?
So okay. Well, then who's taking
Richardson I think Caroline is taking Richardson.
I just don't, I don't think you ship.
I don't think you ship all that stuff for Ohio, State, Kurt
Cousins. I think it's the other way.
I don't think you can ship that much for Anthony Richardson.
And then he said, and then here and you lose lost feeling
Williams Because you, because you wouldn't, after Anthony
Richardson, at least, like with Stroud.
Wait, hang on. What if it's bad enough Houston?
You get killed police there have their pick but they do their
part. Sheila Williams, stood on
Anthony Richardson, That I always sort of I always sort of
forget how much these dudes want to protect their jobs and and
the watching another team watching the Bears decide
actually Fields. Ain't it?
And then taking Kaleb Williams. Yeah it would be one of the
worst trades of all time. Yeah.
So he can risk it. Now remember, Hayden is also a
bit biased towards USC and and watch them film every once in a
while. Well Kaleb Williams was was mine
first bud. Thank you, Jaime decent.
We can't draft him. So what are you even saying?
Well, I mean we did we did the same thing with Trevor Lawrence
Wright where it's like trouble or and an Andrew Luck.
You know these guy. Oh my God, they're just they're
going to they're going to be franchise changing.
Andrew Luck one. One playoff game, two playoff
games, Trevor, Lawrence. I mean, Trevor, Lawrence looks
good, but he's not. Is he, did you happen to hear
the podcast? Where Davis claimed that USC is
never produced a good wide receiver.
Yeah, I did hear that one the other day, it's what they have.
Okay. Least admit they
are even bigger. No.
I mean, you know what I mean? Oh yeah.
But also, I'm just saying stuff, you know, sometimes you just
gotta say things, there's some discussing Stacks in here that
like to me, like somebody on the Patriots, is going to have to do
something. I think that the Jordan love
stuffs, at least interesting, to me, because we have some faith
in Christian Watson at this point.
Jordan love has some theoretical upside as a first round.
I wasn't really in on him as a prospect, but it's been five
years. So maybe he's gotten better from
where that kind of stands out. The Giants won I think is it's
definitely going to be a one. I would be attacking.
They're going to play faster this year versus last year now
that they got some dudes. So one thing for me with
quarterback is that I feel like yes there's upside at the
position but there's not as much upside at that position as
others. And so I hate taking on downside
risk that I'm not going to have that quarterback healthy but not
starting in the fantasy playoffs.
Oops. I'm like why would I risk that
when my payoff when the guy hits isn't necessarily going to be
that high? So I struggle with the biggest
stack, I struggle with the commander stack, are you using
hell? They're like, I think that might
be per set settings per set. Yeah.
And I, but I don't really want to take per set either, so I
love the Giants call because you know, you're getting Daniel
Jones. He's not that expensive.
You guys are, I think you're missing the biggest value in
talking about these veteran quarterback spot, At.
All right. Well, let me just finish with
the, I think the I think Jordan love is pretty darn safe to be
starting. He's either not starting at all
because this Rogers thing falls through and somehow Rogers plays
with them, but that seems extremely improbable.
Now, I think it would just retire.
They're starting Jordan love and fantasy playoffs unless he's
hurt. So that one like I mean he
should be like much more expensive than a guy like same
hell to me. Oh yeah.
Does ready for 17 games at Baker.
Mayfield that's that's not that's not how I'm playing this.
I'm not putting some fuck. I mean Baker Mayfield could be
on another team by week. 17 sounds the world live esteem.
Is the box. I like 19th overall after he
falls? Well actually yeah.
That feels that feels that feels possible.
Yeah but I mean I've been saying it this whole time though but
the the crappy third. Quarterbacks the four sets the
baker's, the whatever these guys have extra value this year
compared to any other year. We've done this because the
quarterback thirst in the first 100, picks is so real.
See I'd rather go like Levis is not someone that I think is a
good Prospect at all, but he's like, I think he's better
Prospect in like Desmond Ritter or something.
I think he's better Prospect than Kenny picket frankly.
Well, the hell agrees with you. Yeah.
So, like his odds of Starting by the end of the season, I think
are pretty good and much. Then guys like Howell and you
know, Baker, so he's someone I'm still back door stacking, we're
not stacking, but just just tacking on as a three
quarterback build sometimes, I'll try to take them with a
Raider, some I'm tacking on 200, 200 40th, overall Baker,
Mayfield, you can't stop me. All right, good luck.
I mean I get it, I can see it. What feels it feels reasonable.
Now, when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin her on the team?
But if he's throwing to Scotty Millard prashad, Perryman.
I'll I doubt I will not be which I hope for Chris and Mike that
he is doing because please, that is this seem like good guys.
No, no I mean they get traded. I mean I mean no I know.
There's why is there any of the women Chris God when is on this
team? If they've cut?
I mean, how many veterans I guess you guys aren't doing?
Because contract makes it a little tough right God.
God wins this. If they can get more from him
and Mike Evans, they can't get that much out of a but he hits
the final year of his deal. Chris goddamn, they can save
some money but they they like re-signed some defense.
Players are kind of like, I don't know what their exact plan
is just Vibes. I don't think ya know plant.
No plan. When is that gone wrong?
Yeah, yeah. All right.
So this is expensive Team level a DPS is relative to the odds to
win the Super Bowl. So like for example, the Jets,
well, they're going to be rising but the Jets should be rising
because their odds of winning Super Bowl or up to five
percent, but they're still. Going behind teams like the
Vikings, the brown. So, obviously the your odds of
winning the Super Bowl is not necessarily a 14-1 correlation
with offensive strength, but it's certainly not completely
unrelated either. So, this would be another
Jacksonville, 3% to win the Super Bowl.
Going ahead of you, do the Chiefs, the bills, some of,
that's where I guess we feel more confident where the targets
are going, but still a little wonky.
Yeah I have a really strong takes with the jet stuff that
feels appropriate. Now there have like the six
highest odds to win the Super Bowl in the entire league right
now. Which seems maybe a little bit
too aggressive. Yeah.
I always think like just to me like going back to the other
crime she like is the Chiefs just draft Mahomes and then
guess on all these wide receivers and just sides fight,
I think it's is not cheap. Well what about the two chiefs
that I think are the most appealing at Cost are mvs and
fees for a dealer who are both those those guys are both free.
The you know, Pete is about to kick me off ship chasing if I
mentioned CH one more time, so I'll talk mvs because I like
he's definitely going to be there.
He provides a role for the team, he's not good but you know, with
Sky more, right? It just needs a little bit of
positive variance. Like if 3, I mean, how many deep
balls at NBS drop in 2022 or just miss when he would catch
them and they wouldn't be touchdowns.
He had like, multiple 40-yard catches that weren't touchdowns
and generally you catch and run and just like they're 80 you
just get you get like 45 plays a positive variance and that
degree, you know, and then all of a sudden you're talking about
the wide receiver 33 in fantasy football.
And would you ever gone? Oh good.
I was just a real quick like Game Theory.
I think that a lot of people drafting classroom homes and the
second runner now Are the Travis Kelce Stacks.
If you want to play Galaxy brain, don't draft Travis Kelce.
In first round, just draft Patrick Mahomes and now you have
an email after the homes team with still as much ups.
I don't think like Kelsey's that's not go extreme.
Galaxy brand is talking on. No great at the end because
you're playing for the Kelsey injury.
Yes there you go. Like little you can your last
five picks could all just be the scrubby has Chiefs players and
just draft Patrick's. What I do it's what I did in
playoff drafts, right? And and Underdog playoff traps,
I was like a little bit of McColl Hardman a little bit of
Noah gray a little bit of Ronald Jones.
You never know. Like that was, that was totally
the move. So with Juju gone, I think Skies
probably going to move up a little bit more.
He's already been priced. He's at pick 133 right now.
Like, that's not that cheap, it's not crazy prohibitively
expensive. But like if he's moving up from
here, you know, and not someone I would recommend like hammering
and then mvs, is it pick 172? Yeah.
So, Already have a huge discount and I don't know, I mean, I
think there's more upside with Sky because is more of an
unknown, maybe he has a second-year break out, you know,
he wasn't terrible, he's on the field, not a great sign that he
was never on the field. But mvs, we know he's gonna be
out there and he has a deep threat role so I don't really
get why he's quite as cheap. Easiest the range of wide
receivers like and those wide receivers by mvs are awful to
me. Like they, they project so
because like all the wide receivers going earlier.
So the fact there's not this to me.
It harder to find sleeper wide receivers because we are
spending all of our time and energy trying to find them.
Like the one falling through the cracks has to me, is it's the
third harder to do. It's totally a devil.
You don't know versus a devil, you do nothing with them dies.
That's all it is. Yeah.
But you know that's that's I think like one of the leaks on
the whole. That's why that's why that's a
Jones call ended up being so good.
It's cause we're like we're definitely not drive things, a
Jones, no matter how many targets it gets.
Well actually how many teams drafted laquon Treadwell last
year? Just like I know you never know.
All right, what else we got? I think there's one more chart
here, though. This is a cheap Team level adp's
Arizona, 0% chance to win the Super Bowl but still still
symmetry. Yeah, hi, this is just these
Dallas prices. Man, you gotta you gotta you
gotta start taking I'm like I know I know it's like McCarthy
And they're going to get totally shit cans a bunch of games, but
that's pretty good. And Gallop will be back another
year from the ACL, and probably take Jake Ferguson right now or
you could just speculate on any free agent, tight end, you know,
Gerald Everett style guys or whatever Landing there.
Probably be probably know. It's like Tony Parker picked 33.
Why am I supposed to take? Kenneth walk over?
Tony Pollard, tell me why. Legendary upside bro.
He doesn't catch passes. Don't bother does.
Yeah. I mean it's Tony Pollard.
If it's if it's June 4th and Tony Pollard still running back
33. I'll just have them 100% of
teams. Probably yeah I will I won't be
able to because my, my thesis was always that if Zeke were to
ever suffer a preseason injury in any of the years that
followed was there, like, Pollard would be like the third
overall pick. So I'm not going to I'm not
going to not take him in the third round or set.
In fact, even if like 20th, overall I'm probably still
smacking that buddy. I love all the round 2, 3 turn
running backs, like give me I'm fine with Kenneth Walker.
I find with Bruce Hall, Pollard, Ramon Dre, like those that range
right there. I think is pretty, pretty
intense. Tell you what?
I don't mind. Just Jacobs that price.
I don't mind Nick Chubb at that price.
Yeah. Like if chub still in Cleveland
and it's him and Jerome Ford. He's not.
I think he might catch passes, like, he did two or three years
ago. And I actually are just three
years ago when I actually had a little bit of juice there.
Yeah, Jefferson running. Back running back.
Going to make five straight wide receivers Throne.
I actually love that. Great that I don't like the
first round running backs, all that much, but you know, see CMC
obviously has a ton of ton of upside, but there's a lot of
opportunity cost. But yeah, I love going wide.
Receiver running back running back right now.
It's a really nice build. And then it's still your, you're
not behind the eight ball at wide.
Receiver. Yet because there's enough wide
receivers and rounds, four, five, six seven, eight gets a
little shaky but there's guys I like and then And then it's
over. There's no one else.
So you got it you got to get your wide receivers done but you
don't have to take them all. You know you don't need you
don't need eight in the first date.
So, I was looking at it like very quickly last year teams
that didn't draft that many wide receivers.
But drafted a lot of them high like six wide receiver builds
but they finished before round 12 with all six of them were
pretty intriguing and this year the prices on wide receivers are
up and running backs are down. So I think like my favorite
strategy right now would be going like typing fragile wide
receiver. Same amount, the same amount of
running backs and wide receivers But which ones do you take first
Native? You can draft draft, one running
back, and then six straight wide receivers and then finish the
draft with, but seventh straight running back from now.
Now, your, you couldn't do, you couldn't just say, go zere
running back for 6 rounds, and then take running back.
So my, my gut take on that. My intuitive.
Take on that, is that maybe like, it feels like, yeah, could
shake out that way in a large sample.
But then I, you just end up having a bunch of teams who have
four running backs, who literally never contribute a
single point. You're like cuz they're just
less their running backs are volatile but in playing time not
in production. So it's like you got to run
really hot to get the playing time and then they're a little
bit less volatile, but the wider, it's like, I don't know
how many MPS probably had three Spike weeks last year, while
being completely useless, you know, if I had to guess same to
you Hardman, you know, just like if we're thinking about, I think
you're including that playoff one in that to get to three, but
I sure sure. Yeah.
But it's like, it's like, Matt Collins.
Hey Mac, where it's Matt Collins going right now.
Like 190 third overall, something like that, probably
Matt Collins a lot. Matt Collins will get two weeks
with 1800 points, probably I think people are overestimating
how volatile the good wide receivers are because you're
talking about 30, the only like to like get into it, the average
line up, you have to be a top 36 wide receiver, plus the flex
position for running backs, like the volatility is a little bit
more just because there's fewer running backs that I can like a
starting lineup. So, like, even just in
Jefferson's bad week, is still like the wide receiver 24.
He's going to be in your lineup. So, I think we've overestimated,
how many Receivers. You actually need to play the
volatility game and a lot of the good ones users are fairly, like
stable for the most part. It's kind of Genius Point
hidden, I've literally never once considered that by the, so
you're saying the 00 running back.
Well, you're not saying Zero running back but what I'm, you
can't go. You can't regarding this.
Yeah, 0 running back and then stop sooner.
So do do see that it is tough, right, 6, wide receivers and
you're done but they're all the best.
Well built, they're all good ones, but they're all, they're
all good. And and obviously, you know,
you're betting that they say roughly, he'll turn, you know,
you have six minutes. Every position that's like,
right. If you're doing Elite Titan,
that's what you do. If you're doing have weight
running back, Hayden, Hayden. I'm gonna I'm gonna, I got to
take us in a different answer before I lose this that.
Have you done any of the looking in, on handcuffing, your own
running backs? This year, from last year's
data? I did something very small.
I think. For a tweet, I haven't like done
like a paper on it, because I can just think of, I off the top
of my head, I can think of two spots where you would have,
absolutely, no doubt Panthers. Obviously being one where you
took, if you took Christian McCaffrey and on to Foreman
David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert, you would have
absolutely, you would have gotten multiple multiple that
while they didn't do anything in the playoffs Jamaal Williams.
And DeAndre Swift, you would have noted out.
I'm sure if we go through these, there's probably if you had
taken McKinnon Pacheco stuff like that, like there were a lot
We're either, they were both playing or the spike weeks, just
I had Michelle and moster on the same team, Michelle obviously
didn't end up being on the Dolphins, but he wasn't, that's
kind of part of the thesis that was running back is literally
that weird. You can get cut and week 6 and
be starting for some shit team and we 10.
Yeah, yeah, the the one thing with, like, the handcuffing, I
think I'm open to it on like best ball is if you're like
early running backs out like your, you are looking to fill
that position. Like we play this game, like
there's upside that like if you have different handcuffs than
like if they're both good. Now, they're both in your lineup
but like the odds that you're cracking that lineup are lower
because the other ones still healthy.
Like, if you're out on those points, like, you are desperate
to fill those points, and you can play that game where like
low Advance rate now, he's healthy again.
Now, you're back in business or even only gonna help even it
helps your Advanced, right? Right.
It's actually a high Advance rate parents, if you draft,
Dalvin, cook and Alexander Madison, and cook mrs.
Week, Six through ten that happens to be a soft part of the
Viking schedule. Madison goes nuts.
Cook comes back and averages 16 and a half Underdog points per
game. I mean Pat, how many teams?
How many guys on your winning team were not frequent lineup
contributors like like. So I have 0 0, some percentage
of the time I had I had this Dynamic at quarterback because I
had Tom Brady, who stunk and then was in my final week line
up and I had Were who was obviously battling injury but
definitely helped when he was in there.
And I had Daniel Jones who just kind of helped chug along and
get me enough, quarterback points and I did the math.
I wouldn't have advanced out of the, you know, three weeks 1
through 14. I wouldn't have advanced without
all three guys, right? So so, yeah, that's kind of,
that's my story. My version of that story at
running back like three quarterback builds.
Well, so that goes to some, I want to ask you about which
You're talking about Zero running back, or here are
running back where you don't take that many wide receivers
former best. Ball Champion, Leah Murphy
saying that he likes that strategy does it a lot that
leaves you some additional positions because like I would
say kind of like the standard Zero running back build would be
two quarterbacks six running backs, 8 receivers two tight
ends. Last year, maybe would argue
that it's actually 2772 or something like that, but if
you're only going, six receivers it.
Opens up, roster spots. Are you spending the night
running back or you spending them to go three quarterback for
each side. Then what do you think?
I'm basically pretending the tight end position doesn't exist
until like round 14. So I like the three tight end
builds going like complete pun and just play the volatility
game. Alberto know any of those guys.
We always pretty well hit. Like last year, I thought there
was actually David and joke who he stayed healthy would have
been a computer smash. Like, there's a lot of the kind
of tear that I think actually pays off and you can play the,
you can get those guys play the correlation game because you've
already drafted their quarterback.
So you've already kind of dwindled down the list.
You can play the correlation game and the volatility game for
that position. What if, what if you've drafted
a guy who is a quarterback? Because I think taysom Hill, who
goes in round 14, right? Jason Hill, taste email, big
loser from the Jamaal Williams acquisition.
Unfortunately, I actually think Mo Williams Is the big loser
because Kasem's well, I mean, Jamaal Williams is in a bad spot
in general. Yes.
But I guess I guess whoever ends up winning that variants fast
between taysom and Jamaal Williams will be interesting.
Only one. What game is back?
He's gonna play, he's going to play like legit running back and
Wildcat and stuff. So it's is that it's so.
So is that good or bad? Is I have been going?
It's probably bad because I mean taste them through what 20
passes last year and basically the same circumstance.
That's real probably do that again.
Yeah, he's gone to the 13th round.
I'm drafted him in. I'm drafted him.
These are people like your, do they not learn, man?
He's good there. It's where I would start to be
where I would start to get. It's Kiddush would be like 10th
rounds like topple. Yeah, I'm like that's a bit much
for sure. Alright.
Sorry, bro. This one tastes but so you're
saying you've opened up one? At least one compared to the
2682. You've opened up to roster spots
gone from eight wide receivers down to six.
So, using one on tight end are using the other one quarterback.
Yeah. Quarterback or running back kind
of just depends on the build of what quarterbacks I'm getting.
Now, this this year it's going to be impossible, like, I'm
going to do a A draft quarterbacks article based off
the last year's data, but the prices have changed so much that
it really doesn't even it's like hard to gauge and I don't even
line up. So how do you kind of play that
like to me? Like if I go past him home to
the second round you just go like somebody in the 13th round
and call it a day, or do you think they'll do to?
Like I might I don't know. That's going to be kind of a
possible one to answer right now because like we don't have any
data with that but typically I like just like the correlation
of like a The quarterbacks with the tight ends and all Bank on
my wide receiver staying healthy and then you just hope that the
white, the running backs of your picking, and the dead zone.
And after that are the ones that smash.
So like, like my favorite one would be like one running back
or maybe two running backs in the first three rounds and then
firing from my crayons 92 round 15, 16 17.
Grab six, running backs in that range.
And by that time, you've already drafted, all your receivers and
just the court like quarterback in versus tight.
Tend does really matter to me that much except I'm never
drafting in the league tight end.
Can't get on board with Kelsey. I do.
I do love Miley tight ends. I gotta say.
I think, actually think I have like, a now, I'm, I'm biased kid
was on my team, but I feel like last year was a really strong
year for elite tight end because it's sort of like, no one hit
except Kelsey. But yet, like the only reason
that I made the finals was because George kid'll.
And it's like a reminder to me that like, oh yeah, because the
position is a wasteland. If you get a couple ceiling
games from the same couple, feeling games is enough.
It's unbelievably The Leverage you get on.
The field is really hard to overstate and they don't have a
tight end or Adama garlic. You can do it.
Donald parm, just resigned with the Chargers like two minutes
ago. Oso.
Round 1080p. Liam, Liam coming in hot here,
you're not winning tournaments without Elite tight end.
We like our Lee tight ends me only am I guess.
But I think I think the point is that they're like from Hayden's
perspective they're going to look bad in the data because the
advanced rates are going to be bad.
Yeah, they're going to under perform their ATP but just
having your buying teams you're burning teams, like learning
teams. If you don't get the most
likely, the tight end you select, in the fifth round is
going to get buried. By a wide receiver that you
could have taken right around there.
And if I was dead, mother's Advance rate last year, kind of
be horrible, and then if you don't get the, the spike weeks
from that guy, which kid it like Kittles, the example, right
kid'll was not helpful, relative to other dudes, you could have
taken like, you know, if you get like, Kittle or I'm Rusty Brown,
like, come on you, you do not want kid'll, but the fact that
he happened to have those Spike weeks, makes him an immensely,
better pick to me. And I know that like, it's a lot
of luck that he got this bike weeks in the right weeks, but
like, that's the kind of the whole point is that there are a
handful of guys who can actually, we can actually get on
with semi-reasonable confidence to do it.
The counter would be that there's only like 12 tight ends
and like a even if Kelsey goes off like Justin Jefferson going
off verses 36 starting wide receivers like the you have to
start so many more players like across like the tournament that
the Justin Jefferson points. I think we're like under
estimating a how You too big of a gap that is and tighten just
so volatile that like, Dalton, Schultz can catch two touchdowns
and stuff, like and very rarely is like Travis Kelce house like
this undeniable ceiling but he goes right into like Justin
Jefferson and those type of guys who had a enormous ceiling right
as well. So I think that we play this
game that like tight ends like laughs the field more than they
actually do. Because we're under estimating
that Joe Mixon game, we have 58 points.
You're like that is not going to happen with Kelsey.
See and you have to start way more players at the non onesie
positions. But this is why I actually think
that tight end being a true Wasteland is helpful for the
elite tight end strategy because it does like yes.
Anybody can kind of Imagine The Leverage.
They wear largest portal. Imagine if George Kettle is the
highest scoring pass catcher in week. 17, you know, like that's
like uber. Yeah.
It's like uber deuber. Leverage.
It's like double leverage but like by how much Like George
kill can have like 22 points and David and joke about 17 and
like, from like last year, for example, a lot.
It's a lot of Leverage. Five points is a lot.
Yeah, maybe like the price tags are way differently.
You have to subtract, we'll just know, just think of the think of
this think of the, or whatever. So, think of the combinatorics,
if kittel is a low Advanced, right guy?
Which were sort of granting that unless you guys.
Yeah, yeah. So so, just put kittel Andrews.
Whoever put guy, we all agree as ceiling, But it's going to have
some pretty bad regular season stretches.
So you get that guy through, let's say he's on 5% of the
final teams and he out scores every other first round player.
So let's call it 25 points and three let's say three other
tight ends all score 18 or 19 or 20 roughly there.
I mean that it like there's obviously would be a way to send
this out and, you know, Hooper whatever.
Someone could do this, my guess is that is Way better than
having 13% Advance rate. Justin Jefferson who's also the
highest school. You know in an alternate reality
is also the highest scoring player whereas your and then
your coin flipping with a bunch of in-joke, oop areum, whatever
tight end guys. But whenever I played this game
we're now we're comparing it to the wide receiver.
That was dominating when I can just point to Mike Evans from
last year who also could do the George kill thing and suck all
year and then he pops off and he can have Mike Evans was a tight
end. To the Mike Evans.
I give it was a tight end, I would not.
Yeah, I think you're on a different stream right now.
There's a is there. Someone else?
Great, well, you wouldn't be, you wouldn't be streaming
because you'd be doing Rex Burkhead is pondering.
Exactly. Exactly.
I would be happy. Plumbing, Rex Burkhead right
now. I think one of the other things
though is that it's not just week 17, it's that the elite
tight end going off in week 15 or 16, I think is maybe even
more I'm packing gets you. It has the ability to bring
through high ceiling my calves or even like let's say Justin
Jefferson really good in the regular season but he scores
eight points in week 15, right? But you got to, you know, get
into week 17 you with other high ceiling players through.
Exactly, exactly. And your own urine smaller pods.
So like, what are the? Yeah, sure.
A rando can have two touchdowns but there's only, you know,
however many teams in that particular week.
And there's less chance of that. You know, if you're in week 17,
there's probably some guy who gets in the end zone a couple of
times, but in the week, the advanced rate weeks like Maybe
that guy's not in your pot and there's a probably pretty good
chance he's not because it's like so Random at tight end.
I mean it could be like a jajuan Johnson, he wasn't even drafted
in a lot of leagues. So that that to me is the power.
It's like if you just happen to get a week 15 from one of these
guys were week 16 for one of these guys and it gets a team
that wouldn't have otherwise gotten in into the final.
And then to David's point if you happen to have a guy who's not
all that high Leone in the final, Because you didn't need
this points to get in because you have the tight end.
Then then you actually maybe don't even need them and many
tight end points in the final week.
I think you can make that exact argument for every position
though, like that that exists for every other position.
And then when you're just going to like Baseline projections and
stuff the round, like Point scorers in general are the least
common at tight end, Titan scores, the fewest amount of
points. It's that has the most leverage.
It does exist it. I think I disagree with that
because it's because it's The fewest points.
It's hard to actual separate in the points you're talking about
like when a running back or wide, receiver goes really offer
like the Justin Fields crazy games.
That's a forty five point game versus the Baseline. 18 that
Travis Kelce like sometimes he has like a 30-point game, but
most of his spiky. George Kittle Spike weeks, are
23 points like the depth difference between, like, that's
like a 11 or 12 point gap versus when the running back or wide
receiver. Does it now we're talking about
20 25 points. Well, it just wasn't feeling is
so Higher, you do want to factor in price though, like obviously,
I wouldn't want to be taking on these guys, you know, in the
first five picks or something. I mean, Kelsey is a bit of a
different story but but actually not drafting a lot of Kelsey
right now. I am feeling about 34 year old
Travis. Yeah I mean I was out last year
at fucking 13 or whatever it was.
Yes I'm not gonna be in that pic five, right.
So I agree with that. Like if you're just shooting for
like the very, very highest ceilings and you're giving up
the opportunity cost of adjusting Jefferson, you know?
That's, it's not, it's not Not as appealing but I mean George
kill right now is like what a fifth-round.
Pick Dallas carts. Six-round cow pit sixth round.
You know, Mark Andrews Assad got it.
God help the cowpats Raptors. Hey man, the guy could he well
he never gets in the end zone. I was hoping for its analysis
starts with calpads. Could be could now I never has.
That's not great. The old the last thing on the
tight end stuff is from rounds 15 and on And you're getting
tight ends at project for every down rolls actually project for
fantasy points and at running back and wide receiver.
It completely dries up and you're just looking at like if a
lot of teams are doing the two tight end builds like the Titan
25, that's like a legit starting player for NFL team if
everyone's drafting 89 even up to 10 wide receivers or drafting
like legit wide receiver for zhan team.
So at the very end of draft, those tight ends are like
actually projected for points. And obviously it's like not that
much that many points. But I think even like that stuff
matters plus your drafting then for the correlation like the the
tight ends because they're so volatile.
The touchdown. They're really correlated to the
quarterbacks and you can draft a quarterback that you want the
position that actually scores the most points and then add on
the correlation of the tight end at the end, you can't do that
like it's harder to do on the inverse.
Like you're committing to the time early tight end and then
you have to draft as quarterback when I think it should be the
other way around because the quarterback score, so many more
points, especially in F, PB r that I want to draft the higher
position and then chase the correlation with the lower
position. The one that's doesn't get that
many yards per reception. That's basically playing the
touchdown game so that's kind of how I always.
I like that group of tight ends as well.
I like traditionally I've sort of tended to sit out the tight
ends going in like rounds, seven, eight nine, ten Dead
Zone. Yeah.
Because like your that's a decent price.
You're paying with the market, doesn't.
Think those guys have the same. Same ceiling, and you're kind of
just it's an expensive touchdown game with those guys.
Now, I kind of like the guys in that range, a little bit more
than usual, but but generally and you see this Dynamic, by the
way in DFS where it's like, I just want to pay Min price for
the tight end. I'll correlate it and make it
part of a double triple stack, whatever depending on field
size, or you know, what? Screw it.
I'm going to pay up for Kelsey this week.
I'm going to pay off for, you know, that usually Kelsey, but
you actually go for it a tight end and it In your, you kind of
when you do that, you know you're like burning that week,
most likely but if you get it it does provide huge leverage in
DFS as well. Which is one reason I am kind of
sticking with my argument that I think the like I seen The
Leverage play out in a couple different formats with Elite
tight end. So it does feel like you get the
most leverage there, when the guy actually comes through even
though he very rarely does on that couch.
I haven't played DFS on a couple years because I could work out
Underdog. I can't is the Kelsey prices
from last year. Were they the same as the elite
running backs and wide receivers in the elite quarterback?
Or was he at like 60? That's kind of ATP.
Like that's like, he's like, he's like eight, he was like
8,000 instead of 10,000, right? So I think like, there's some
parallels to that where the plant is a little bit cheaper in
the DFS time and like over the over the long term.
I think the quarterbacks are going to stay healthier.
So really feel like I can't invest into every single
position I want to play the upside game with the
quarterbacks I want to pick which teams I'm actually
Correlating with. So I'm going to be investing
into the quarterbacks. We've all agreed that you can't
not have good wide receivers. I think there's a lot of upside
in the atps keep dropping for the running backs.
So some positions got to be just completely printed off and I
feel comfortable that the position that's averages seven
points, per game versus the position.
That's averaged, 22 points actually matters.
Like that's like the first bullet point.
Here is 7 points versus 20 points, even if your lapping,
the field, it's a difference of five verses ten.
Well, it's a good point. Yeah, if you're if you're
putting off position maybe pun off the one that doesn't score
any points. If you're going to, you know,
these are 20 round drafts. Right now, what do you think
about for tight end builds? I've experimented a little bit
with that because you've got the two extra rounds, and it's like,
hey, at the end, I am, I am finding, I'm getting starters.
I'm getting stars. And then, there's also, I think,
a very strong rookie class. I like, sample port in the 20th,
round, you can get Luke Wes Craven the 20th, round Dalton
Kincaid's, not all that expensive.
Like I can tack on you know, a rookie and a guy like jajuan
Johnson who has a job or whatever very very cheaply and
if you cobbled together for maybe get the touchdown Samurai
weeks. Yeah.
All of mine are from 18 rounds. So for tight ends have never
been like a profitable strategy like on a macro level of year to
year the last three years on Underdog.
But with the, the 20 rounds that's where like the Gap can
close from 4 to 3 and this is like, if I only looked at teams,
I hadn't drafted tight, The first ten rounds, maybe the
fourth tight end becomes something more.
Interesting. So that's like something you
have to kind of filter out but I'm with you.
The rookie Titan class being this good like does make the I
think the late-round tight end piece even more intriguing.
Just because like some of these guys going to be stealing
starting spots or just snaps in general from guys, that were
drafting the top 15, like jigga Quang cone stuff.
Like, I like some of the upside of this, like, Greg dosage.
I like, the upside. But, like, there's a chance
that, like, Sam laporta goes to the Echoes or something like
that. And now all of a sudden you
didn't want to the guy in the brown alleged, on our Washington
and he's blocking, you know, a lot.
And maybe he's not even that valuable but he's out there and
dulcich isn't. Yeah, so II like just like to
punt the tight end position they at the end of the day, the bed
I'm making is that this position scores the least amount of
points and we'll go from there. You're gonna win that bet?
Yeah, it's just a, can you, can you look into the bright points
in the right week? But there's multiple ways to do
it and maybe you do it by getting You guys scored a
touchdown which will probably mean there will be that guy.
So if you hunt for maybe I'll find him.
All right, so we close the show by selecting a player who we
think is our flag plan for closing line value, this is this
is where you get your shot pennies we've had pretty good
track record so far Baker baby. He's going away up Baker sucks.
All right, go ahead without your guy Baker.
That was my guy week 10. Okay well that worked that
works. Good, do you have the other guy
this week? I think I'm just going to take
the easy way out and save auto-scaling.
Since we all just like universally agreed on that one.
That is a starting wide receiver.
He's going to end up going way up.
I will say another one that is a little bit less obvious.
Greg, Dortch after DeAndre Hopkins gets traded, he'll go up
a good little. Bit after that deal gets
finalized, I think. Hey, Daniel, I'm missing a group
together. The thick rookie running back
side of going in like the 180 to 200 range.
We know that the price tags are down.
We were all kind of on some version of Zero, running back at
this point, whether it's one running back earlier 0.
So the guys in particular can be Roshan Johnson unique, and Ray
Miller and Duane McBride would be my three.
That you should be tacking off their the guys out.
If they get round three round, four draft Capital, that's how
you look into. Damien Pierce Brian Robinson
profiles and they are like absolutely free and they didn't
have the NFL draft height because they didn't like, smash
the 40 or didn't run in particular, but coaches, don't
really care about that. Yeah.
And Chase Brown still like semi palatable, I think where he's
going. So I like those guys that you
mentioned a lot. I was taking a lot of McBride
early. I've gotten a little bit nervous
about just how slow his top end speed might be, but he's He was
very productive so I really like layer.
Yeah, I think I said Pollard, the first week if I didn't.
That's who I'll say no, no dub what a dub.
If not, I'll say Bruce Hall. Whichever, I think I've said one
and not the other. So whichever one I didn't say
that, but I pretty sure I said Pollard.
So Bruce Hall, I'll say and I mean, why isn't he Rising a lot
like it too? It felt to me that the Jets were
going to go get a quarterback, you know, they obviously, See
went the most risky route where they just like kind of went all
in on Rogers and that obviously could have ended in disaster but
it looks like it's going to end with Rogers being a quarterback
which is massive for the quality offense and Bruce Hall and
everything on the ACL tear stuff has been pretty positive for not
hearing any that you want a Williams worried.
So I think like, when you look at his rookie season and how
good he was, and How much he was involved as a receiver and how
efficient he was as a receiver. Like looking at, I did my,
legendary upside thing for running backs.
He's, he comes, he came on as the number one guy, like,
because you're as I'm looking at second year, guys, I'm looking
at, you know, I based on the type of dudes who in the past
had these massive Seasons, they tend to be younger than you'd
think. And he's got me, they tend to be
hyper efficient because like, basically, no workload can get
you to the level of This earth-shattering season you need
to be hyper efficient. It really helps if you're hyper
efficient in both phases the game I don't know man.
If he was healthy and they have Rogers.
Wouldn't he be like the sixth pick?
You see the 106 with with Rogers and he didn't tear his ACL.
Yeah I am one of the two, three. Turn feels like a fucking smash.
I love that call. However what about Ramon dread?
Same kind of thing, but obviously obviously the offense
isn't supposed to be as good, but like I think Ramon Dre is
like could be pretty, pretty special this year.
Ramon Dre. I mean I've always loved her
Madre. So I like that one too.
You're getting an offense coordinator.
Not even upgrade your just get your getting an offense of
coordinator. Getting a nice.
It's good. It's good to have Joe judge much
less involved. Yeah.
And a Patricia God Mac Jones, like, I guess all that like,
kind of trade, like, oh, we will even, that's all gone away, so
stability. Yeah, I like him.
I love the James Robinson signing for him.
I think, I think he's protected by that.
If Damien, didn't get that much money in the Patriots, decided
not to bring him back. I think that's like a side that
they really are about to unleash from Andre who they've kind of
been like slow playing his role every single year.
Yeah, I like that one. There's like, I would say, 25%
chance that Bruce, Bruce Hall, was my previous guy.
So I will just tell Paula real quick, which and I'll I'll just
tell the site that I started. Legendary upside.com.
There's an article on there for Three public article.
And I talked about Tony Pollard, who I say, I'd be comfortable
taking in the mid s, so to get him.
Still at the three, four, turn still.
I don't really get it, man. I took him at the 305, the day
that seek got cut because I was like, Akamai token because I
wanted to drive to any park, but I thought he would be like, kind
of rocketing up and right now he's still going behind etn,
still behind Josh. Jacob still on Nick Chubb, still
my Derrick Henry I don't know. I think I like him the most of
all those guys. How confident are you?
That you like, Pollard versus CDs like straight up, like I
know you're a wide receiver guy. But like, I mean, I'm taking CD
ahead of Pollard, but kind of a kind of like the, I mean, that's
that's where you start to go. Okay.
Alright, let's, let's get into it, because, I mean, power is a
ton of upside, but are you a would you actually take them
over CD? I was um I think I wouldn't I'm
the Pollard bull, man, he's gonna be awesome.
Yeah, if you're take, if if that's all you guys feel then he
is like literally going at the wrong turn like you, you can
press it if the one to turn past and then get him at the next
turn like that. Those types of values are like
very rare, he's a running back. You actually want to draft, you
go down the board and look at every single round at ATP.
How often are you like, oh, actually want to drop this
running? So you have to draft running
backs at a certain point, I think.
And I think that Pollard would be one of the guys that
qualifies early up in the board and I think that we should go
after him for sure. Yeah, I think like generally the
running back position, there's not, it's not like, you know,
compared to past years. It's definitely devalued.
There are some running backs or I'm sort of like yeah I'm glad
you're devalued. Like I still don't really like
this running back here but there's more running backs than
ever where I'm like, I really like I really like Bruce Hall
where he's going I really like 20 power.
He's going I don't mind guys that I like Josh Jacobs coming
off season. He's coming off of wood, five
years ago. Been someone that I had almost
none of this year, right? Because he just wasn't too
expensive. He's pretty reasonably priced.
On average, getting the top, 36 running backs are down 10 points
compared to last year's ATP or attend, 10 overall draft spots.
So still not drafting those years though.
You guys can have him, you can't make me.
I'm bi Sighing, I think I need another two rounds.
Gotta get rid of this, get him into the six or seven that off.
I'll start to pick 43 that's for someone else.
All right, guys, I think that'll do it Hayden.
Thanks so much for coming on. What do we got going on over at
Underdog? We are about to do draft,
prospect videos. So this year, we're going to
just do one Prospect at a time. It'll be like 10 minutes or so.
Per player, going to have some film, have some charts, do all
that fun stuff. Go pros and cons where we think
they're gonna get drafted. And yeah, I'll just be more of a
film based shelf this year and we're just going to do like
base, basically, one Prospect per day up until Will the draft.
So we should be able to knock out like everybody that's on
this chart for example. Now I know you like quarterbacks
and it's an important position for fantasy and you know
superflex is a format that exists is that is that something
that maybe will be drafting at any point?
I think we're close to you. Making that decision.
I think there's what thirty percent left in a certain
tournament before we get there. But we're pacing for that.
I would I would highly recommend getting some superflex rankings
up up and ready. Okay, alright, that's a tease
Davis. What do you got going on?
Nothing it sound coming out right now just the the podcast
going to keep going to keep churning, but it'll the volume
will pick up. Definitely as we get a little
bit closer, a draft on a want to do it.
Maybe doing a little bit of bedding, the NFL draft stuff,
since many, many people have legal sports betting Books
available to them. All right, I will mention again,
legendary upside.com, just lost it yesterday, there is a 30
dollar off early bird discount if you You sign up just on the
main page, it doesn't, it gives you a 30-day trial?
I'm going, if you do it that way I'm gonna go give you the
discount. You're not going to not get the
discount so you can do the normal, good guy, good guy, Pat.
Yeah, I'm going through the back end of stripe and and applying
discounts. So it's it's not it's actually
not that time consuming. I couldn't figure out how to do
a trial plus discount. I wanted the trial to be the
default option, but you're not losing out on the disc out, no
matter what. So go sign up, all my stuff is
Coming out on the site already. I've got that pilot article
mentioned. I've got an article on the wide
receivers the top. Three rookie wide receivers for
me, the Jackson Smith and Jada section is completely free and
they'll be more free content as well as premium content next
week. And there's also a premium
podcast that has audio versions of the posts.
So if you're into, consume your content through audio, I've got
you covered there but yeah, legendary upsetting off.com,
check it out. Thank you guys.
Been a fun one, we'll see you next week on the normal ship.
Chasing show. As I find.