That shit. Hello, everyone, and welcome
into ADP Chasing. No, Sam Sherman Davis Maddock,
Pat Crane, Benjamin Gretsch with you here.
Look, we're not going to lie to you.
Sam kind of holds the operation together.
He's the charts and the graphs, man.
We are running a little bit behind schedule.
We're very excited to have the slow draft wizard himself here
on the program and that'll do it.
Welcome to ADP chasing. ADP chasing is for when you
watch ship chasing you go these guys are just football guys.
And the targets for outrun leagues, that's going to be
really nice. Actually, back in, if it's
Ashenet, it's. Scared to our crystal ball?
Close your eyes, you know all your entries are going to lose.
Anyway, yeah, that's fair. This is a Duslan show.
It's anti cabal, it's anti the best ball thought leader.
I'm obviously lying to some degree 'cause like I have a lot
of both of these guys. It's the most disgusting thing
you can make. But.
Man. Little Easter egg in there.
Little Easter egg. Darren Waller is on one of the
risers and Fallers charts from like 3 from like three months
ago, you know, we were doing Darren Waller he.
Was a he was a faller, Yeah. I wonder why?
I'm really I'm really hoping that in that in those fallers,
you that in that section, I was not the Darren Waller dude.
I mean, you're going to lose anyways.
You might as well take him. Ben I.
Drafted him in the big. Board, at least I took him a
couple of times, yeah. I mean, look, Dawson Knox versus
Darren Waller, like even at this stage, who's going to add more
points to the average basketball team in 20?
24. Awesome Knox.
It's not by much, not by not by much.
So Gretch, thinking about this show, the ADP stuff has to be
very different. The way that you were drafting,
where you were drafting in batches, where the landscape, if
you go register for 10 drafts or 50 drafts and then you come home
and then you go back across the border two weeks from then and
you're starting to look at these contests and you're like, wait,
what? That's not right.
That's not how I that's not how I remember those players being
outlaid. So I'm I'm excited to have your
I'm excited to have your your slow drafting thoughts here.
I, I'm beginning to enter into slow draft hell a bit myself,
'cause I'm just not gonna be able to get all the drafts in
that I want if I if I don't. But Ben, how you doing bud?
I'm doing good. What you just described is very
true. I'm definitely not drafting fast
like every day. And so I'm not seeing the real
time stuff. But there is when you're in a
ton of slows and you're in the same part of the all the drafts
at once. There are those ones that you
you get in real time. You're like, oh, that guy's
going ahead of ADP in every draft that I'm in.
Every draft. That's so true.
Yeah, and or Stefan Diggs just goes behind ADP in every draft.
Right. Oh, he's the top ADP value in
every draft. That I've ever seen now.
Well, you know that is, that is. Better stop clicking him.
That is well, that's to be honest, you guys realize that
self selecting right, because you are one of the 12 drafters
and you don't take that guy. I realize I take.
Diggs. No, I take Diggs.
That's I'm like, I'm taking diggs again.
This is just starting to feel like a lot but.
What happens to me is it's like, oh, he's the one that ADP is
showing us a huge value. And so many my drafts are at
this stage right now, high percentage because they're all
running. You know, I'm doing 40 drafts at
once. And if I take him as like the
value guy and I'm going to wind up with a lot of exposure to
Dicks, right? Like I have to be intelligent
about. Which I like, think I'm OK with,
you know, I'm like I. I would caution you, I would
caution you on that, that that I think is not.
I think that's much more of a comfy 7% blanket.
Then you get to the season and you never really felt that
strong about it. Well, he's so he's going in the
late round, so he's he's like wide receiver 50.
Are you guys saying I thought you were saying digs?
No, no, I no, I didn't. The joke didn't land.
I'm saying he's going late 3rd so he's wide receiver 50 but.
God dammit. OK, that's on me.
That's on me, that's on me. That was a good joke.
And I stepped all over. If that would be if I did that
to Pete during the Oversets overview, he would.
He would rightfully be angry. Yeah.
I mean, I take Tank over digs 'cause I don't want that bag.
You take it straight up, you would take tank over digs.
I do, I I do take him straight up.
Yeah. I just, I want more 2424 year
old guys who do not have exploited ceilings in weeks 1516
and 17. Like if I'm thinking of ways
that digs kills you, you know, you know how digs you could feel
that digs kills you. Diggs has a very Adam Thielen
weeks three to 10 where he's got he's got a bunch of like 11
catch games. He's looking great.
And then all of a sudden you show up in week 14 and Diggs,
his ankle is bothering him and you're like, oh, actually, turns
out Diggs was not the guy that I needed in 2024.
He's he's turning 31 in November.
So it's not like he's super young, but he's not, this isn't
feel. I mean, he's like two or three
years younger than Thielen and he's won with crowds instead of
young. So his weighted targets Prout
run last year I know in the intro Sam's like he he would
crush a target sprout run leagues.
The weighted targets Prout run last year that includes air
yards and his targets Prout run last year was a career high by a
small fraction of a percent, but a career high.
His weighted targets, Prout run tied his career high from 2022.
He's been super consistent the last four or five years in
volume earning. He was a 1.99 yards per out run
guy last year because the yards per target was weaker last year.
There's some concern about that, but that's been all discussed as
like Joe Brady took over the offense and made him throw
short. Like that's been used as a, you
know, an explanation for a ton of stuff on Buffalo side.
Of things, I think I I think I disagree with that as the
explanatory variable. I mean, I think it's the worst
in the. Playoffs games 1.68 and 0.51
yards per hour. So he dropped to to 1.89, which
is not, I think. I think that's a big part of it
though, of why he's fought. People are just like he left us
with a bad taste in our mouths. He kind of fell off.
Like, you know, my argument is so I the the the point about the
the playoff stuff is interesting, but my argument is
like for the season, his way to target Sprout run still really
like saying career high for him. Also top ten in the NFL higher
than Nico and Tank, who are both very strong and they're all
right in the same range. So not hired by a lot, but like
not a guy that is like to to Pat's point, he's not at
feeling's age like you're saying, like he's going to fall
off late in the year. What evidence is there that he's
not going to other than he did late last season, but that he's
not going to earn volume? I mean that that is that is my
my evidence would be twofold. The evidence would be one.
He did it last season. He actually started out quite
strong last season. It wasn't leading to wins for
the Bills. I mean, look, like obviously
that stuff's a little bit overblown because the Bill's
offense was fine, they were just getting unlucky.
He also was playing next to like, only pretty.
Good last year. Yeah, they he was also playing
next to like only dog shit players like like Gabe Davis
noted what what Gabe Davis is is like one of the worst targets
per route run guys like in the history of the NFL.
We had it on the show last week. I forget the number.
I'm not Sam. I, I, I for sure that's gonna be
a little no. It's like it's like for guys who
it's like for guys who have run the number of routes that he has
run, he's got like an MBS level of targets per out run it.
It's really, really bad and. It's not that bad.
I look at targets per out run dude.
It's just not that bad, especially when you.
Control I want to say. Plus A dot, it's not that bad.
I want to say 16% of his routes here, that's not bad.
That's exactly where he's at. But that's not that bad.
That's not like it's bad to Marcus Robinson once out of
season with the Chiefs where he earned a a target on 7% of his
routes. Like when you're talking about
the worst of all time, Like no, it's.
Yeah, we got a long way. JJ Ortega, White side there,
there you. Go.
You got to here's here's the deal.
You got to adjust. You got to adjust for Davis
Maddock hyperbole when I say. You cut it in half, that's a
50%. Right.
I was, I was, I was directionally, I was
directionally accurate and. Yes, is a 13% guy over the last
his three-year average. My my lookup thing has a
three-year average, which yeah, I mean last year he was at 9%
like that's been getting worse. So MBS is still meaningfully.
Low guys, do you know what team Orthega Whiteside is on right
now? No Eagles?
Well, he's Disney. Well, actually I don't even, I
don't know because but he's wearing.
So he's listed as only having ever played for the Eagles, but
then on his PFF page he's wearing Falcons jersey.
He he was a tight end, He got, he got converted as a type.
The Seahawks, the Seahawks or the.
Steelers. Sorry, the Steelers.
The reigns fire. So his he has a career targets
for outright oh, 7%. I've got a, I've got a better,
I've got a better update for you.
He's actually on the Toronto Argonauts of the Canadians is
where he's currently on. Why?
Did they give him a Falcons jersey on PFF?
It's crazy. Is he, is that a true stat
'cause I was naming at 7%? Oh, Europe teams.
Oh, is he actually? On the top no, he is he he well,
it's one of those deals where he signed a deal with them like
they own his rights, but I I can't say if he's actually
playing with them right now Here's the deal.
Yigs is fine. I I'm more in the I'm more in
the I prefer a comfy 4% blanket of him we.
Haven't even started the show, this was just my.
Like an example of like. There you go.
Slow trap. But.
Dicks is always the guy the top. Eight, I think Dicks is a target
in the late 3rd. I mean, he's playing with CJ
Stroud. He's still he hasn't like Oh no,
he had 1.89 yards per hour and including the playoffs.
I guess he's washed like that's pretty good.
It's not. I don't, I don't think he's, I
don't think he's washed, but I don't think that he is
meaningfully different in terms of range of outcomes for the
guys who go like full rounds later than him.
So let me let me do the crystal ball thing really quick.
Let me. Because.
Michael Collins last year, 26% targets per out run Took a
meaningful step forward, but the first two years was good, not
great. Stefan Diggs has been a a more
of an alpha target owner over multiple seasons for a lot
longer than Nico Collins has been and Tank Dell was good last
year. But again, those two guys also
were going are were competing for targets against Robert
Woods. And Noah Brown and.
Noah Brown, who had a career year.
Robert Woods Robert Woods made the final active roster of the
winning Big Board team. OK, the people.
People are saying this more and more.
Also had a career high targets per out run.
Noah Brown, like he actually went out and had a strong season
in this type of atmosphere where most of his routes came late in
the year after after Dell got hurt.
And he's competing also with Robert Woods, who literally
couldn't have earned a target if it hit him in the face.
The the the crystal ball thing is, what if Diggs comes in and
it's legitimately the number one?
Nico is also a huge part of the offense, but it's sort of like
the secondary guy to to Diggs legit alpha #1 which he's been
at every stop. He was all of his years in
Buffalo. And Tank Dell is like the
rotational third, like he's the two, two Atwell of the
situation. And it's like a Diggs 'cause
he's smaller and he's more, you know, situationally used.
And it's Diggs Collins as like these two alphas and, and truly
Diggs as the number one. I mean, does that?
Is that completely out of the? No, I sign that a deep like you
run the season 1000 times. There's some number of the
seasons where that's exactly how you describe it.
Collins is the deep threat. Dell is the you know, the the
rotational piece, the guy who gets more the gadgety design
stuff. He's not a a 26% target share
guy. You you could see Diggs pretty
easily be a 2930% targeture guy the way he has been.
Like I assigned that some number of probability, but I assigned
it a lower number of probability than Nico is actually the big
dog. You know, Nico is the one who is
like just the best player, the best at getting open and that
Dell actually at this stage in his career is like pretty
comparable and being able to convert a lot of the
intermediate stuff that Diggs is.
It would be kind of shocking. Imagine talking to last July
version of yourself and and the information that you're going to
get is Stefan Diggs is going to have 1.89 yards per out run and
and be a strong target earner and then he's going to go to the
Texans. It turns out CJ Stroud is a
budding superstar, and universally we're going to
prefer Nico Collins. And his and his 80.
Three-year high. Also I.
Also. I also strongly preferred Nico
Collins and I take him in the second more comfortably than I
take Diggs in the 3rd. So like the the chats say like
somebody had a funny comment that I'm I'm understanding the
the progression of breakouts. No, I mean like Nico's breakout
was real for me big time. And the fact.
That he was better. Right, once Tank went down, the
fact that he was better as a legit #1 and earned volume and
and with like target competition, you know, no target
competition with defensive attention on him down the
stretch and into the playoffs, like Nico I believe is a legit
player. That's when he blew up, when he
didn't have any. That's what I'm saying, yeah.
To cover him, that's, that's, that's the that's the the sign
that you need. He's the guy that you absolutely
take. What I'm saying is and and and
your your comment, Davis is great.
The run the season 1000 times thing, because what I'm saying
is there's a range of outcomes. There's a lot of ways that
things play out on on these situations where we look back
and we go, man, probably could have seen that one coming or
like, like we didn't really consider the way that the things
could have went. And I don't think the market is
giving enough credence to the fact that what I just said,
which I don't think is the most likely outcome.
But I think it's maybe even if it's just a 10% outcome, that
digs could be come in and be the like biggest target earner could
have the highest targets per out run that we look back and go, Oh
yeah, Nico and tanks numbers last year.
We're a little inflated by the fact that Robert Woods ran 400
plus routes and couldn't earn anything like was doing nothing
couldn't and was inefficient and was terrible.
And then suddenly there, oh, Stefan Diggs legit alpha took
those routes. We went from the one of the
weakest receivers in the NFL last year to Stefan Diggs, who's
not young but had 160 targets in the regular season last year.
Seventeen more in two playoff games, nine and eight in his two
playoff games. I mean, that's not a crazy
outcome. That's something I want to weigh
into the range of outcomes, right, Like the probabilistic
ranges for these players. So if you're going completely
out on digs, if you're taking the tank ahead of digs like
you're saying, that's not even really feasible.
I'm not saying it's not feasible.
I'm just saying I'm not building for that part of the game tree.
I'm building, I'm building. I'm I, I much prefer the part of
the game tree where and, and to be clear, I should say this a
lot. I I'm not really doing much of
any of them. I'm not doing it.
I'm taking, I'm taking, I'm taking Nico.
But I'm not doing a lot of Stroud like I just didn't like.
I'm just not, I'm just not doing a lot of like these drafts you
see people post where they like they take Nico.
I take one of tank or digs and then I take Stroud, you know,
with Andrews mixed in there or. Whatever, I just all the time.
Yeah, I just don't. Think one of my favorite.
Things. One of my favorite things.
To do it's. Almost why.
So the way I do, the way I do that team is I do it with Lamar.
I just I. Oh well, give me, give me Lamar
all day. I'll take Lamar.
You give me Lamar in the fifth. Fuck yeah.
Let's go. Yeah, my, my preferred way to do
that is Nico Collins, Marc Andrews, Lamar Jackson is like
that. That's my prefer at at cost,
even knowing Nico's the most expensive.
That's what I think is best, personally.
All right, 15 minutes into the show, Crane, why don't you pull
up our risers chart, to be honest.
None of these players on it. No, no, to me there's.
Nothing Tank's tank's definitely rising a little bit.
He's not. On a little bit, there's no
point of talking about A.J. Brown, right?
Does it? It's it's because it's from 9:00
to 10:00 as big. Well, I don't know why he's
flipping. He's flipping puka.
I guess it has flipped puka. I don't Puka's like one of those
dudes were like in this environment, I would expect Puka
to be moving up given that all the receivers move up in the
puppy. Puka's an awesome pick and he's
moving down. I don't.
I don't get it at all. I've argued that.
AJ Brown's a grown man. Puka's kind of a grown man.
Too is is Garrett Wilson still going behind both of them?
Yeah, 'cause he's the one that needs to flip both of them.
Well, he might flip puka. I like puka over over Garrett
Wilson. I mean just he literally just
had the best rookie receiver season ever that that's pretty
cool. I'm I'm not being.
I'm not. Being.
Facetious. I'm not being facetious about.
This at all? What's that in the pro call?
It's definitely in a pro. I've decided for pro call.
Dude, I think it's pro. Two very big fantasy football
accounts tweeted this last weekend.
One was Ian Hartett. I don't remember.
The other one. I want to say maybe it was one
of the Fantasy footballers, but don't hold me to it.
Targets and the 12 full games together in in 2023, they played
twelve games or no one got injured.
Nakua had 100 targets in those games.
Cooper Cup had 99. I I think there's kind of that
sentiment just sort of loosely hanging in the air to people who
are really plugged in right now. We're getting a little bit of.
We're getting a little bit of that which.
Was a good pick, but I mean like, is that supposed to be?
Are we just supposed to go, oh, they're even that a rookie came
in and. No, I think.
It's cup when they were both healthy.
The way that I'm. Supposed to be pro cup.
The way that I've tried to frame it, Pat, when I've talked about
puka is that I, I think he was like, 'cause when you think
about like outcomes, like we always look back at past data as
if it's like A50 percentile outcome.
And then it's like, oh, well, he can get better.
I think it would. He ran hot last year.
Like he ran like he got like an 80th percentile outcome for what
his true range of outcomes is, which I think makes perfect
sense when you think about cut being out early in the year and
he would be. The 101 if he didn't.
Right, and so like the the comp that Shawn, the comp that Shawn
made in season last year was Anquan Bolden and I, I keep
going back to this. If you go look at Bolden's
career, his rookie season ends up being like basically a peak
season from year three's a little bit better.
It's that same but so part the part of the counter argument
would be it's that same era of, you know, play in that same
offense. Like Puka's still in this 80th
percentile. How come he's still in this
similar set up? If Coop, if cup gets hurt again
this year, he's going to be in the same situation.
But Bolden goes on to a really long, strong career.
A lot of 80 catch seasons. Those are his only 200 catch
seasons. First and third years.
It's his two best yardage seasons.
It's like, you know, peak for him early on and then he kind of
settles in to be a little bit of a lesser player.
It wouldn't surprise me if that's what Puka's career looks
like. I think it's hard for him to
jump from what he did as a rookie and then go even bigger
in year two. Like we we expect progression in
year two and he could be better, but then he could run 50th
percentile and his stats could actually come back a little bit
or be even right. Yeah, for sure, it'll be a hit.
He had 16167 yards, including the playoffs, Which?
Was I? I think you could argue he
actually ran kind of bad. He only had seven touchdowns.
He only had seven. He only had he only had seven
touchdowns. The the math works out for good
wide receivers. You're supposed to score 1
touchdown about. The best rookie receiver season
Rookie receiver season of all time.
For fantasy scoring. For fantasy scoring, I think
you. Can argue he ran.
Yeah, he ran a little bit bad. 2.75 yards for out Ron.
I, I don't know, I mean. The the target situation, we're
over no competition. It just feels like we're
overthinking it. He's in the same exact
situation. He's entering year two.
He had the best rookie season ever.
He's there's no question about he's going to be locked into,
you know, maybe cup, you know, rebounds a little bit.
I I've highly, highly doubt cup gets back to being like the
clear alpha again after the season that puka just had.
I think at worst he's a small miss in the sense that you paid
a first round pick for like. Like a 1B if cup kind of returns
to to excellence, but it's a highly concentrated offense.
They don't even have a tight end anymore.
DeMarcus Robinson's the third guy.
He's fine. They use him in the red zone a
little bit, but like, it's just like, I don't know it, it feels
like very, very high. Floor, I think we're going back
to to old D Rob, the D Rob that I've known and loved for the
last 10 years in the NFL. I, I think, I think him scoring
a touch. I think Puka's.
Are. I think Puka's a.
Star then he's a smash in the late 1st his his.
First two games he had 15 targets and 10 receptions and
then 20 targets and 15 receptions.
He did not have another 10 plus reception game all year.
He had 25 in those first two games.
He did not have another game with more than 12 targets.
He had 35 in those first two games.
He averaged 17 1/2. Like those were both games
without cup. Like that's where the stat that
that Davis just read comes from where?
I mean in in week four Cup wasn't back yet either.
He had a ten, nine, 163 game. His season high was 164 in the
regular season. He actually had 181 in the
playoffs. To your point, Pat like he was
still good in the cup. Was there in the playoffs?
Yeah, he was at 8154 in Week 7. It's crazy how good he was
early. 9164 in week 16 in a touchdown.
I don't know if cup was there for that, but I don't know.
I I just think. Comp is still really good.
It's not saying that he's bad or he can't still be good.
It's just like. I don't think it's certainly
possible that he's Bolden. It's certainly possibly he's
Bolden, but like he's Bolden doesn't really work for me.
Like I think, I think he could be a superstar, like a true
superstar, because if he is a true superstar, he would have
come in and done what he did last season.
Well I mean 1/4 of his catches came in his first two games.
Like I mean what? He ended up with his final. 22
as well 2. Two, as a pro that seems great,
but. There's no one else even on the
team that's capable of catching pass.
He's never going to play. Atwell had 100 yards in that
game. People forget.
No, I know people. People.
He's never going to play on an NFL roster that has weaker
secondary receivers than he did in those first two games.
Like honestly, like that. Atwell was the only other dude
on the roster, man. So are you trading him?
Are you? Clicking cup at cost 'cause
that's another reason why if I'm drafting a 31 year old wide
receiver, I. Prefer I draft both puka and
cup, I don't like drafting them together and I've explained this
on ship chasing a little. But I do think the scenarios
where you're playing what Pat saying for puka do require cup
to continue to to struggle with health and not be back to full
speed. And I think when when you talk
about Cup smashing his ADP, you're talking about him being
back to full speed and really cutting into puka where Puka's
not 160 target guy again. Because again, he had 35 in the
first two games and then he settled in more when cup was
healthy. And if cup's really healthy that
he's more like a 7-8 target per game guy than A10 target per
game guy. Which isn't saying that poop was
bad, it's just saying that at cost he's maybe not like he's I
think I described it on chip piercing as I think he would be
more like a mid to late second round pick for me if cup is
hitting at his ADP. But then there's still the
correlation type stuff. And we talked through a Pat.
You made a great point. Like what if the Rams of the
team you need, you probably want some builds that way.
It's just not like a a stack that I'm going out of my way to
get 'cause I do think they're a little bit mutually exclusive
when you look. At yeah, I don't think it's one
like to go out of way to get either.
In some ways they've only had like 700 yards.
Last year, yeah. Like you go for a pyre in, in,
you know, no, I, I, I do. I think you want to be open to
it, but at the same time it's not one that I'm going out of my
way to get either 'cause I, yeah, I mean you're hoping when
you take cup in the third round, you are hoping he gets back.
You're you're kind of hoping that puka is actually the the
secondary guy when you're when you're making now would.
Agree or it's more balanced like like 199 thing.
Maybe they are 5050, right? I'll do it every so often 'cause
I think there's like some ping ponging stuff, which I know that
you and Bime for talked about talked about on on the Legendary
Upside podcast the other day. I've kind of been not actually
been talked out of it because you kind of just need your third
round pick and your first round pick to just like smash a lot of
the time, like you, you kind of just you kind of just want those
guys to be smashing. And there are very few seasons
where I think both of them are just like huge smashes.
Like the Kuwa finishes wide receiver three, cup finishes
wide receiver nine. I mean it's possible, but again,
not definitely not even in the top like I don't know 70% of
most likely scenario. And especially Pat, when we talk
about the first read stuff like wasn't that what one of big one
of Puka's big things was? He took over the first read
stuff in season last year because I think part of the
Cooper Cup bowl cases, like he's back to full health and he's the
guy that's getting those first read.
I think a lot of what they do with McVeigh and with Stafford
is like intelligent pre snap identification of what the
defense wants. And we're we're going here pre
snap, right? Like we know it.
We we know how to get the ball to the guys we want.
That's how Cooper Cup has the best receiver season of all
time, and it concentrates volume to the degree he did. 21 percent
1st St. target on 21% of his routes, which is pretty good.
It's very good. Actually.
It's not it's not like insane like 24.
This is kind of where you go like Oh my God.
So it was good cup. I believe this is just last year
it was at 20%. And previously, I imagine he was
up in the Oh my God, that's a really high number.
Yeah, Yeah, he must. I mean, he basically had to be
he's he's hit 20% of the last two years cup.
But I don't have off the top of my head what he was before that
21, Yeah. 'Cause he had a.
Hundred 191 targets in 20/21 he had 98 in just nine games.
In 20/22 he was A10 plus target per game guy and then Puka
immediately became that. And I think it's a lot of this
thing of where like where they're going with intent, which
I think was Puka last year because cup wasn't really
healthy. Well like but it was pretty
close, 2021% to 21 of the things I look at is what you would
expect yards per hour run to be based on the 1st 3 targets.
And I had that for puka at 2.3, he was at 2.75.
So he was like actually way above expected, which generally
is really bullish. If you got player, if that's on
50 routes, it's not so bullish. But if it's on, you know, if
you're like a big piece of the offense and you're producing
much more efficiently than you would even expect given the 1st
3 targets, that shows target earning that shows you know, the
ability to make plays when you are targeted, all that stuff.
So that's, I think it, it's pretty damn bullish to me that
he's. And the other.
He does not look like he was created by 1st St. targets to
me. For sure, and then the other
thing is when you go back and look at like he was under used
in college. The routes weren't great, but
his per route stuff is insane. Like his targets per out run in
college was insane. Like he was in in a huge volume
earner in. College, someone needs to do a
deep dive on that like go and like literally like talk to his
like college coach or wide receiver coach or something and
be like why was this guy who was so dominant on a per out basis?
Why did he just not play more? And he was at UW Gretch, you
should know. Yeah, yeah.
Well, we had the the pandemic year, the second year there and
then he transferred afterwards. So he was a true freshman.
I mean, he probably. Just played four games.
He probably looked at that wide receiver room of Jalen McMillan,
Polk and Adonze and tight end made the NFL too, and Dylan
Johnson and was like, maybe not. Maybe I'll go.
Maybe I'll go play. Well, The thing is he was hyped.
I remember US talking about his name.
I remember I heard about him earlier than I heard about a
doonsay for sure. Like people were excited about
Puka Nakua, but he only ran 38 routes in 2019 as a true
freshman. I think he was banged up a
little bit. Really good routes, 4.42 yards
per out run, really small sample, but really good routes.
And then he only play, he only runs 58 routes the next year.
We only played four games in 2020 because of the the pandemic
year and then our our our new coaching staff, Caitlin de Boer
and all that and the offense took off.
Wasn't until 20/21 when he was gone.
Prior to that it was Jimmy Lake who got fired after the
20/22/2020 season or excuse me, after the 2021 season.
So he was Pukinako transferred away before UW's passing game
got interesting. Before Pennix came.
We had like a a week of quarterback playing back then.
So anyway, I don't know what it what the reasoning is, but the
like the reality is Puka is like he's good.
His his per route stuff is good. Whenever he played is good.
Do you guys have any concern that like he only ran even in at
BYU 234 routes and then 177 in his final season total 507 his
whole college career, including the UW years last year he ran,
I'm pretty sure more than that in one season, 574.
So actually three. Oh yeah, more than that.
And then that's not even including the playoffs, I don't
think. It no.
I, I, I I don't care. Yeah, I don't care anymore.
You guys don't think there's like any like 'cause like with
running backs, you know, being a workhorse is a skill, that kind
of thing. No concern about 'cause he
didn't. I would need. 22O5 like I don't.
Know I would need. To know he's a good run blocker
like. I would need to know more about
what his college coaches were doing like I would need, I like
I as far as I know, and it's possible that this information
is out there. It could be his coaches were
like he's super fragile. It could be his conditioning was
that. He was banged up in college,
right? I think so, yeah.
What if that was their answer? What if, what if they came back
to you and told you that? What if you got a chance?
I would say you what if you said guys, you were fucking wrong,
the students, you were really, really wrong.
Like you were about as wrong as a college coach can.
Be and and and if he was. An NFL star.
You blew it. NFL teams don't do that really.
I mean, Tyreke a little bit. Tyreke I think is would be your
best analog and he still runs like 70% of.
The It's a little almond raw esque, or a little like the
conversation we were gonna have about Rashi rice instead of the
conversation we've been forced to have.
It well, we've never talked about Rashi Rice on ADP chasing
before. Why don't you go ahead and
advance it to Rashi Rice? I mean, to be honest, I think we
can be done with with puka. I don't think we're turning.
Over Yeah, I just wanted, the chat said.
I'm over thinking this. I wanna be clear, I'm drafting,
puking a cool. I think he's really good at
football and I don't think he's a bad pick.
But what are you doing with Garrett?
Are you taking him over him? Or are you?
I'm taking Garrett over him. I am.
So you're okay? You're gonna be.
I think Garrett Wilson has a better, I guess I think Garrett
Wilson has a better chance to finish top five overall at the
position, even though Puka basically just did last year,
which doesn't. I know that's not like, doesn't
make a whole lot of sense. Listen, I get it.
Like I want to take more Garrett Will Garrett Wilson.
I am so annoyed that he just goes and there's people like you
take Garrett Wilson over them and other people do too.
So then I end up getting puka after Garrett Wilson and I'm
psyched about that. But I have a really hard time
clicking Garrett Wilson over puka.
And so I just, I just want my Garrett Wilson.
And then I get a little less Garrett Wilson because
sometimes. People take it well and I'm a
huge A.J. Brown guy, but the the question
I LED with is I don't know how Brown's moving ahead of Pook.
Like if anyone it should be Garrett is what I.
Said it should be Garrett. Yeah, I'm taking Pook over
Brown. I only.
Ever. Every every day that we get
further away from the memory of how shit the Eagles were the
final six weeks of the season, the more people are like, A.J.
Brown had a lot of good stuff, like he just scored a lot of
points. What he had.
It was the eight games of a of a 1.5.
If we took like 3 weeks off of content would Barkley get up
here at one O 7? Did we get Barkley one?
It's like. I'm going to go on strike until
Barkley goes. Into I, I think, I think what
will happen is that in August, people are who are not, you
know, people who have touched grass and and felt the touch of
a woman are going to log on and be like, I'm taking take 1
Barkley in the first round, bro. He's on the Eagles now.
He's on a good team. Right, that's what I want.
I want that so bad. All right, Rashi Rice, I mean,
truly, I'm not going to let us go that long about it.
We have literally we have done this to death.
I think that this is two things happening.
The first being people want to take Mahomes, but they can't
always get one of his receivers with him.
And so, as anyone who's ever watched this world cast knows,
it means you got to reach on Rashi Rice a little bit, because
the alternative to having Mahomes team without one of
those three players means you're just dead.
You're just not gonna be winning the $1.5 million.
So you might as. Well, someone, someone did it to
me in the puppy. I grabbed Mahomes late 5th and
I'm like, I'll I'll take Rashi in the 6th if I got to do it.
And then I got sniped, sniped on Rashi just naked Mahomes just
sitting there with I had Pickens bring back.
I was like, this is gonna be fun.
It's not fun. It's not fun.
So I think picking. Enough Mahomes during this
period where rice was the best. A tough scene.
In the drafts, that's what you had to do is take a lot of my
homes and stack them with Rice. I've taken Davis.
Did you do any of that, Kansas? City people have been chatted
asking if I have any of those teams.
Do you have any of those? I'll be honest with you, I do.
I do. Okay, but my homes is the least
important part of of that. Like you don't actually have to
have. They're all equally important in
Davis's mind. No, actually, Davis is.
My top two exposures, Xavier Worthy and Rashi Rice.
You can't. So Ju Gretch's point.
I take a lot of two KC teams without my homes.
I do a lot of the same thing. As well my top receiver's Rashi
Rice. Yeah, so I've got Worthy and
Brown and Rice, all those guys up there, but Mahomes is all the
way down as actually I have even less than Kelsey.
He's your he's, he's like your sixth highest total player.
Is it quarterback? Kelsey's my total.
I typed in, I typed in Chiefs. I typed in Chiefs in the bar.
Yeah, OK. No, I guess I don't have that
much Mahomes either. Rice is just going up the board
because because people are realizing he's probably not
going to be suspended or the suspension is not going to be
that adept, to which I say they're probably right.
I, I think this is the thing that a lot of people were saying
in May, or at least I don't know, I was saying a lot in May
that like Rice's Price was not going to stay in the eighth
round. It was in the 80s for a while.
It was not going to stay in the 80s.
It was an egregious overreaction, in my opinion, to
the actual like, facts and reality of the situation.
There's still risk with it. People love to say he's never
going to play again. They love right?
I don't know why, but there's. Still risk with it they.
Do the. Same concept.
They want to panic, they want to scream.
I'm just never going to play back weighted.
The the whole point about back weighted production, the whole
point about like it while he's not in there and he's suspended,
you can play other guys and and the weeks that he's going to
miss are going to be the weeks where the rest of your roster is
healthy and you're going to get starting like usable weeks out
of other guys on your team. And then he comes back and what
say he suspended six games? He comes back in week 8 because
they have a week 6 by comes back in week eight.
And then you get Rashi Rice the rest of the way.
A guy whose yards per out run comparable to Puka Nakua is in
year one and was tied to the team that has been first and
password over expected like 5-6 straight seasons.
Like every season of Patrick Mahomes career.
You're going to get past volume, you're going to get past
efficiency. He just had a 2 plus yards per
out run rookie season. Like what?
What are we doing? He's still way too cheap.
He's still don't. Even care if he gets suspended
like in basketball. Like you want him as part of a
build. Every team I get him as a wide
receiver 5 or wide receiver six. I'm like this team fucking.
Rocks, are you taking him in the sixth round now or are you just
getting ahead of it? Because he's not really coming
back to me in the. Second, I don't have any drafts
in the sixth round. This gets back to that point.
I'm gonna, apparently I'm gonna learn something different.
Pretty so he's he's moving up like substantial to where so he
used to be he used to be like, you know, Deontay JSN all those
dudes would come off and then rice would just be sitting there
as like the last of the tier. Maybe Christian Watson would
still be there or something, but like a.
Little different now. Yeah, now it's like Rice's.
Well, that whole pocket has moved up.
Is he? Going ahead of like Ladd and and
Bryant. He's kind of more in the mix
with those. Guys, no, no, but he's like,
he's on that part of your screen where you're starting to see
Alvin Kamara and Najee Harris's name.
So you're starting to freak out. You know, like I really got to
get another wide receiver before, before, before.
Zamir White is the top guy by ADP value.
You're like, I got to, I got to figure this out right now.
But I, I know I do think that like Ladd, 'cause I, I had a
choice between, it was like Ladd, Brian Thomas, JSN and
Rashi Rice were all, and I was at the six, seven turns.
So I was like, I'm going to take two of these four guys.
So I think he, it is starting to become a little bit more a
choice between all those dudes and I.
And I think like, yeah, it's, it's one of those things you get
anchored to like I don't have to take Rashi Rice until round
seven and I shouldn't have to. And then now the market's making
you decide if you're going to do it in round six.
And I think I'm just yes. I think my answer's just yes.
Yeah, it's still going to be yes for me up to like round four,
honestly, it really is. Let me think.
I would take him over over George Pickens.
I would take him over George Pickens.
Wow. OK.
I think for me, and maybe it's just me being kind of anchored
to stuff, but I think like more like Jaden Reed and Worthy is
kind of where I would we'd be like.
The fifth round would just be the chiefs round.
It would be it would be for the players for for the players in
the in the in the round would ADP would be Mahomes, worthy
Hollywood and and Rashi. I think so.
Gretchen would drop actually. Yeah, probably.
Yeah, Worthy. You'll drop a little with the
rice. That would be that would be
unwell for me. That would be that.
That would cause real trouble if like you could get wide receiver
40, no. If you're worthy, can't drop.
If Rossi doesn't get that would be unwell.
For me too. He would instantaneously drop he
he would immediately go a whole round later if worthy became.
Why would why would Marquis Brown drop?
Because he's the one who elevated when Rice fell.
This is why I. Don't have any idea why he goes
where he goes now. I I can't.
Yeah, I I should really struggle with it.
I don't have a lot of him, I have some but.
Well, you guys are wrong about Hollywood Brown, but we don't
have enough time to do that discourse again on on this
program. This is what the market is
saying. The market is saying Hollywood
Brown is going to play in the the MD's DeMarcus Robinson role,
but be actually good. So that role will be valuable
for the first time ever, Raashi Rice will will be used the way
he was used last year and worthy will be the sky Moore.
But what if sky Moore could play good type type thing?
Well, he's also the he's. The Cadarius Tony, he's the Miko
Hardman, but they also I mean like the the concern about like
what's got how sky Moore fit in and wasn't very good in his
rookie year with this team or period.
All our excitement about Mikole Hardman, all that stuff, like
it's a little different. Those guys weren't the prospect
to Xavier Worthy from an age adjusted production standpoint,
especially when you consider that, you know, Sky Morrow was
coming out of a smaller conference and they weren't guys
that the Chiefs drafted in the first round and traded up to
draft in the first round. Like that's a meaningful
difference to me. Like Xavier Worthy could just be
what we wanted Michael Hartman to be as a rookie, what we
wanted Sky more to be. The reason we were on those guys
is like, if you're right in the Kansas City Chiefs offense, you
have past volume and you have Patrick Mahomes.
There's no better situation to be right about a rookie.
It's it's just fucking rocket ships right?
Like isn't that still meaningful for Xavier worthy?
Like that's I still want to make that bet.
I mean, all the things that made us draft Nicole Hardman and Sky
more really high, and then Rashi Rice hit so that it means the
Chiefs can draft wide receivers again.
So we're allowed to draft. The roll stuff, it doesn't
matter. Like who you don't need them to
be hard man or Tony or whatever. Like what was Rashi Rice?
What what what role did he neatly fill?
New Travis Kelsey? He just wasn't new Travis
Kelsey. Kind of, yeah, yes.
But he was like, he just did a thing.
Well, and then Mahomes was like, oh, that's sweet.
I'll just throw to that guy when he's doing that thing.
Well, like, we're hoping Worthy's good.
We're hoping Worthy's good. I don't think Marquis Brown is
that good. He hasn't been good in like 3 to
four years. He's a watch.
He's kind of like the classic dude who's washing up with a one
year contract with the Chiefs, which never seems to go very
well. You're taking that guy in the
fifth round or first round rookie who's like the fastest
guy of all time. Which one seems like the higher?
Upside bet? Which one seems higher?
Upside with production? Speedsmother with production
like Good Lord. It I, I mean, I think it's all I
do very much want to talk about this next one, though.
Let's go to Calvin Ridley. This is this might be the
longest ADP chase. Rice is the cheesecake I love.
It. I'll start.
I'll start beauty myself. OK, Calvin Ridley.
I'll start, I'll, I'll start screaming a little less.
I I was into to Calvin Ridley conceptually and like wide
receiver 41 wide receiver 39 seventh round, eighth round, you
know, especially in in the wide receiver avalanche environment.
I am much less into taking Calvin Ridley 20 spots ahead of
DeAndre Hopkins, ahead of Xavier Worthy, ahead of Brian Thomas,
junior guys like that because I feel relatively strongly, One,
that a large part of the Jacksonville Jaguars offensive
struggles last year was because they tried to cast Calvin Ridley
as a wide receiver, one style guy and he was not up to the
task. And two, I mean, we're at the
point of his career where like, I feel we can feel pretty
comfortably about the style of player he is.
Like, I don't think there's any unexplored ceiling.
And I sort of feel like DeAndre Hopkins, even at age 32, is, is
probably in a median season better than Calvin Ridley.
He's better at earning targets. He was better, he was good.
The NFL and Wade targets were out run last year.
He was like he leaked at earning volume last year.
He was really good last year with Will Levis.
He's the guy not changing. He's the guy who's in a stable
situation, who's having offensive coordinators come in,
who like to pass, who actually enjoy passing the ball.
This is like an improved situation and he's already
proven that he can play with this quarterback.
Calvin Ridley is coming off a disappointing season, which is
the first time we've seen him play in years.
And now he's changing teams, very clearly getting a
quarterback downgrade. I I don't.
And now it's like, oh, we gotta take Calvin Ridley first.
Calvin Ridley should be going like a round or more past
DeAndre Hopkins. I don't understand.
I this one I don't get at all. We've been behind him the entire
way. I believe Establish the run is
behind him, too. I'm like, who is driving this
Calvin Ridley ADP? I I don't.
What what's what's going on? Yeah.
Also. We're ahead of Ridley compared
to ETR even. A legendary upside.
So I, I don't know, the market's lost its mind.
What's going on? Beat beat best ball, beat
basketball. It's Liam.
It's Liam and well and and and and isn't isn't Eagle selling
rankings now? I mean.
Maybe that's it, I don't know. Yeah, you never know.
You never. There's I This happens sometimes
in DFS too, where they'll be just steam completely out of
nowhere that you didn't perceive at all.
And it's like there's just got to be stuff out there that we
don't know exists. Best ball stuff that we've never
maybe fantasy flock. He's got Disney have 300,000
YouTube subscribers. He's just maybe he's just
pumping Ridley. We don't know.
Yeah, we just don't.
Know, just don't know. Other than the Ridley Hopkins
comparison that I completely agree with and I completely
agree. Really should go behind Hopkins.
I'm I'm struggling to even take a lot of Hopkins because like
Will Levis wasn't actually good last year.
His first game he threw 4 touchdowns and everyone went
nuts, but then he threw four more the rest of his game like
his next. Eight starts combined and four
interceptions with that and completed 57% of his passes.
The passer rating was bad. His yards pretempt wasn't very
good. It was it was all right because
he's vertical with his passes. Can I can I try to levis pill
you? Go ahead.
Because I've been, I've not been Levis pilled for the player, but
I've been Levis pilled conceptually because I believe
the organization believes there's something there, as
evidenced by spending this money on Ridley, as evidenced by
hiring a more offensive minded head coach.
I think the signing of Pollard as well is kind of like we don't
want a traditional bruiser back. We have Taje Spears, we have
Tony Pollard. Like these guys are going to be
getting outside of the tackles. These guys are going to be
catching passes and it's everything they're saying in the
front is like we want to throw it like we want.
Their offensive coordinator was mentioning pass rate over
expectation type stuff. Like they they really want to
Hock the ball now. Is it going to work?
Yeah. I mean, I think the jury is
still incredibly out on if it is going to work.
What you're pitching, I'm I'm buying until that part.
Like what if Will Levis is just fucking terrible, which is what
he was as a prospect, really. It's a lot of concern about him
as a prospect. Fell's got a cannon, is that, is
that convincing? I mean he does have an absolute
cannon. He has an absolute cannon.
Yeah, A. Lot of bad quarterbacks though,
like Jake. Jake Locker comes to mind
because talking about Tennessee, he's a UW guy.
Wasn't Joe Milton? Yeah, I would, I would say I
would compare him to what the most likely scenario if we're
being bullish is that you're you're hoping he's Mitch
Trubisky. Daniel Jones.
Daniel Jones, I don't think he. Runs his.
He's not going to. These are bullish names.
Yeah, these are bullish. These are bullish comps.
Mitch Trubisky. Daniel Jones finished Kimmy
Lake. Lake Bortles in his second
season. Bortles Bortles is the.
Parson Wentz in in his second or third season that we want, look,
we want this dude loaded up with volume, really inefficient.
We want, you know, you know, maybe getting 5-6 wins this year
goes down as a bust, but just take some dudes along for the
ride. Put some spike weeks up.
Like, yeah, honest, honestly. Like Mitch Trubisky was someone
people were starting in superflex leagues and shit.
Like look at Rohin's comet. Daniel Jones threw 15T DS in his
QB nine year. This is not a great Hopkins or
Friendly case 'cause it was all. Rushing.
I don't know. Daniel Jones isn't who I.
Think we're betting more? We're betting on.
Portals, portals and portals. Portals is fair.
Year 2 Year 2 Blake Bortles Let me just lay some absolute truth
on the chat here because they don't remember this.
Year 2 Year 2 Blake Bortles 44104 Not a type 4400 passing
yards in 16 games, 35 passing touchdowns.
He got sacked. He got sacked 51 times. 51
times. 18 picks, but it didn't matter.
It didn't matter. Both they both portals, yeah,
we'll. Take that and he leader in.
Racks and picks, but throws for 45130.
Five, and he ran for 300 yards in two touchdowns.
I mean, it's Jameis. Winston too, right?
Like it's Bortles, it's Jameis, it's that.
Easy, says Baker Mayfield. Last year maybe.
As as as easy as. Baker's a better passer than
him. Baker was a better passer.
Great for the game. He did more in college.
What's that? Pick six is elite for the game
script. I mean for the game script what
you want. More fantasy points for your
quarterback. Have them throw a pick six in
the second quarter. That'll just really get things.
Going none of this works unless the coaches are actually
ideologically committed to the past, but they it feels like
they are. I mean this this is the staff
last year with what's his face Browning with, you know, Burrow
goes down and they're. Throwing Browning.
Browning was throwing the ball all I feel.
I do feel confident in this. Will Levis is better than Jake
Browning, and Jake Browning was tossing that ball around the
Yeah. So if we're getting volume like
I'm in, I'm in. I Levis is not a big target for
me 'cause I do think he's bad. And, and my upside case is Mitch
Trubisky and Blake Bortles. So you know, there's, there's,
there's a bigger better upside cases to be had.
But like I'm taking Hopkins and if I it backed into it, you're
you're in on Hopkins now you can.
Convince me I'll I'll take more Hopkins.
No, I like Hopkins volume earning and I've taken some of
him, but I've had a hard time taking anyone in this offense
because of Bortles. But you've convinced me to get
into. Hopkins we're not just because
of portals. I got you portals and he is just
portals. Now I'm just going to call him
Bortals from now on portals. I mean, I'm I'm starting to get
like real Levis pill by this conversation, like if I could
relive, if I could relive that 2014 Jaguar season again or that
2015 Jaguar season. I mean, these are just some of
the these are just some of the names that were prominent on
that team. TJ Yeldon, Gennard Robinson and
Toby Gerhart was the backfield on that team.
There they had Alan Robinson and Alan Hearns.
Marquis Lee. I mean, Clay Harbor, Rashad.
I mean, what a time. What a time to be alive.
Clay Harbor, who's like a reality?
I know I was sending trade offers probably to like John
Moore to get to get Aaron Rodgers.
I was like, I got Bortles baby, you want them, you I know you
want them. Give me Rodger.
I'll give you a first in Bortles.
You give me Rodgers didn't didn't get accepted, but that's
that's the. World we were in where that's,
that's where that's where we were at, I feel.
Confident doing that. All right, let's move to, let's
move to Jalen McMillan. I, I was hoping, I was hoping
that we would get to, to, to this one.
So I mean, this is the obvious, we all love this guy in the big
board, particularly in the legendary upside and ship
chasing discords. We were like having a contest
who could draft the most of them.
Just want it on the record. I definitely won.
I ended up with like 65% Jalen McMillan in the big board.
Good Lord, we are. We are now approaching doing a
bit territory with our picks when we're we're Jalen McMillan.
I saw him go in the 15th round of a draft I did this morning.
Well, I don't think Cowboy calls him Mcmillions every chance he
gets, and I'm pretty sure it's just that nickname that's got
him to the 15th. Round Mcmillions is gonna.
Boost Mcmillionaire, I mean. Mcmillionaire.
Oh my God. I wanted, I mean, I want it on
the record that I am the Mcmillionaire is if we're, if
we're going, if we're going there.
Pat's literally the big millionaire.
Mcpet literally the you are the. Millionaire hit the hit the
Mick. Here here is the.
Here's the deal, though. Remember that Chappelle Show
skit where he goes and works for whack Arnold's?
You are the whack millionaire, correct?
That's that's the actual MC millionaire, that you're the
whack millionaire. Well, the I'm the theoretical
millionaire. Theoretically.
Like it's all. It's all.
Theoretical. This clan's bucks.
One, are we 100% sure Jill McMillan is going to beat out
Trey Palmer over the course of the season?
That is the difference between the Chad is asking about
Jermaine Burton and Ricky Pearsall.
To me, that is the difference because Trey Palmer was actually
like a pretty cromulent player last year.
I don't think there's, I don't think there's any like rush to
get Trey Palmer on the bench. I just got an ADP chasing bingo
with Cromulent. There, I had that.
Yeah, you. Yeah.
You cross it off. Where are you guys at on on
McMillan? I mean this is he is like a huge
pumper in terms of raw ADP value.
He is going up a ton. I'm in on McMillan.
Like I, I, I mean, unless he just settled in like the 14th
round, that would be like, I, I guess I'm, you know, done having
him as like a, a guy to target late, but he's one of the
easiest clicks for me in the 17th, 18th round.
You're like, oh, I want to tack on an extra receiver.
He's got enough draft capital. He was, you know, interesting
kind of you. You got to put on a little bit
of rose colored glasses to see like big upside with his profile
injury red old final season but scouts are pretty into him.
The Rose colored glasses are cheap though.
They are they are. They're not expensive ones.
And like, I guess it really comes down to, is Godwin back in
the slot? And then in that case, maybe
Trey Palmer's outside and then Mcmillan's like a rotational
slot guy. But they like him, right?
They like him. They.
It's been good, yeah. And so that.
Would lead me to believe. Yeah, lead me to believe that
Godwin doesn't just like play all in the slot and they move
him around and he played more outside last year than he used
to under Arians and stuff. So I don't know.
I mean, it's it's kind of like rookie who's doing well in the
early part of, you know, OT as mini camp stuff and has enough
draft capital and a pretty clear path to playing time.
So I'm going to take that guy in the 17th, 18th and 16th.
If he got to the 14th, I guess I'd be like.
So my thing with him going in the 15th now or rising or
whatever is like at this point, I, I don't really care about the
difference between the 15th and 18th round.
In every draft, there are eighteenth round picks that I'm
comfortable with and I don't think should be going there.
And I actually don't really mind taking the 18th round picks in
like the 15th round 'cause I feel like I'm getting a little
bit of a different texture to my late round stuff.
And by taking like four different 18 rounders, right,
Like no one else is getting that 'cause they're so worried about
taking a 15th rounder and 15. But if you're doing a build
where you have, you know, Baker for, for some reason, or you're
going towards a Bucks build or you have Bryce Young for some
reason that you want McMillan as a bring back or any reason that
he really fits, like, yeah, take him in the 15th round.
I. Don't care, I don't care at all
really I mean once like round 13 comes around, I'm kind of just
like I'm just worried about the combos there I mean sure you
need to be like a little you should be a little price
sensitive I. Think in August it's it's it's
trickier. But now, like, there's a lot of
prices that are just loose, and it's like, all right, yeah.
Well, it's like, particularly with.
Podcast I said this on, but it's we're nominating $1.00 players
and you're literally nominating them like would you would you
get if someone nominate in an auction in the final rounds?
We're all the money spent. We're just ready to log off.
It's been 3 hours if someone nominated Jalen McMillan like
before. Nobody would go to $2.00 Rashad.
Bateman, would you be like? Whoa, dude, no, you know, you
know what, I probably someone would go $2.00 on Rashad
Bateman. So if someone, Rashad Bateman,
Rashad Bateman is going to be Rashad Bateman is going to go
the Josh Gordon route. I mean, it's going to be, it's
going to be like it's going to be 2031.
He's going to be 30 years old. He's going to be trying out with
the Dallas Cowboys. I wish.
I wish Rashad Bateman had ever flashed like Jeff Corn.
I would. You don't know how bad I wish
that. Happened.
Well, maybe. Maybe Martavis Bryant is the
better comparison. Where Martavis.
Bryant, I would take the Martavis.
Bryant Flash. I would take that.
Give me that flash baby, all right?
We're all looking for the guy who did this, but I see that
some some Patriots ADP's are are rising and Demario Douglas or
Andre Stevenson. He's he's apparently been the
star of Patriots camp. Well, he was the star of camp
last year too. I mean, that's how that's how he
ended up making the impact that he did despite being behind all
those veterans. I think he's probably a very
good NFL player. It's going to be very hard for
him to matter on underdog the same way it's hard for like guys
like my favorite guys, Wan Dale and two two to to to matter on
on half point PPR sites, like how many touchdowns are going to
be available there? The reminder thing is, is just,
you know, the dude, the dude signed the contract.
And so everyone's all jazzed up about it.
I don't know. Yeah, I think Crane, you're
you're our Patriots correspondent.
They're they're good picks. They're good picks.
The the stuff out of Patriots camp has been bullish on May's,
you know, likelihood of playing early.
I don't know if he's going to play, you know, week 3 or
whatever. Maybe it's not till week five or
something like that, but like he's going to get in there
pretty pretty early based on his progression so far.
And then Douglas specifically has has looked good and then
they re signed Romandre. So I think all of these make
sense. Like, you know, they're not
gigantic rises either. 3% rise for both Romandre.
The move was to start taking him a little bit more before the
contract, which we we were ahead of on the leg up ranks 'cause it
was pretty clear this was coming not like all offseason but like
the last like week 10 days. No, it was pretty clear it.
Was pretty clear, Yeah. So, you know, he'll rise a
little bit based on, you know, the news comes and then that
creates the rise That always happens.
Even if you felt like it should be baked in this.
This makes sense. The the corresponding drop for
Gibson has been insane to me. Like what are people thinking is
going to happen? No, the drop for Gibson doesn't
make any sense because he was a contingent play slash like
rotational. You know, you're hoping he gets
like true like passing down like 2 minute drill stuff, but that
doesn't, a new contract for Madre doesn't.
Matter. I heard they're playing him in
the slot, dude. I heard they're both going to be
on the field at the same time. Gibson's in the He's in
offensive. I mean, I, I think there was
some argument that Gibson, because he does have size, could
take some of the early work too, could take like A and and
Stevenson's contract to me was was meaningful.
For Gibson. For for Stevenson, yeah, I
hadn't been super into to Stevenson at price and I was
like, all right, well, I mean, they're they're still commit the
new coaching staff, the new, you know, regime is is into
Stevenson as like the lead back. That's good to know.
And here's the other thing, when you take these guys, you get to
take Drake May, who people forget was a great quarterback
prospect. That is, I mean, we've all been
there. You know, it's the 14th round.
You're scared. Your back door stat.
You you you really want me to get Matthew Stafford with Cooper
Cup? He's not there.
He's gone. You're like, well, what do I do?
Do I do? Do I do Cedric Tillman, Deshaun
Watson? I don't think so.
So let's set up Demario, Douglas and Drake.
May we? We've all been there.
My. Baker, Hunter, Henry Gibson.
Yeah, Javon Baker Gibson, honey. A little before that, yeah.
It's. I need to I need to start like
making myself do like Troy Franklin Bonex more because the
the may bags are get. That's what I did.
I forced myself to start doing that more because it's a good
bet. The Bonex bet is a good bet.
Well, Gretsch doesn't have this problem, but I do like 8 drafts
at a time. Like I'm just sitting there like
I did like 7:00 this morning at a time.
Whoa. And like two of them, I was just
like, I got nothing planned for a quarterback Like I just got to
do Javon Baker, Drake may like right now, like just so I I.
Sounds like you did have a. Plan buddy, I've been pumping
Drake May a little since talking to you last, Pat.
But yeah, Nick, I agree with the Knicks.
Knicks is my highest roster quarterback.
I just looked. Yeah.
He such an easy pick late. If you take Bonex you do sadly
no ball. I mean they, I, I feel like, I
feel like like quarterback 31 Bonex is like wide receiver 40
not 59 Dantavian Wicks. I'll never forgive the schedule
makers for making May and Knicks Week 14 buys.
You just pair it in A and mix and all like this May
quarterback, late quarterback may mix that Why isn't that my?
Whole have you thought about how unique that would be?
Brother, you just eat the zero at quarterback in week 14 I've
thought about. It a lot.
I mean, I do, I've made three QB builds with those two and it
sucks 'cause you like if you're making three QB builds, you do
kind of like different 80 PS But I'm like, look, the the other
guy is my QB one. I just need that guy to be good
at Week 14 and then and now I have like two QB twos, Drake and
Modex. They have to say bye.
Who cares? Who cares?
Let's go, Let's go to the fallers.
All right, to the fallers. Juwan is hurt, obviously.
Yeah, obviously Keon, I I guess this is the corresponding Titans
moves. The Titans guys are going up,
Coleman's going down. And Rashi Rice and.
Brandon. Johnson, JSN those.
If that whole group is coming up, then Coleman's got to come
down. Did you guys see the Brandon
Bean thing on Twitter? Yeah, that was also pretty bad.
I I did not. Was he just like Keon Coleman?
Stinks. Can't get open.
He it was like GM speak for that.
Yeah, it's probably coach speak Index who had it.
I'll try to pull it up. Here, but he can't get open.
I mean that like I, I don't, I don't.
That shouldn't be new or surprising that he can't get
open that that wasn't. That wasn't really his skill
set. At Michigan State or at at
Florida State, it's just not he, he's a jump ball.
He is. I mean, I think like a really
great upside case for him would be for if we're talking about
guys who were good in 2015, Alshon Jeffrey, it would kind of
comes to mind. Just like a super big bodied, he
boxes you out, you know, and no one ever mistook Alshon Jeffrey
for a great route runner. He caught a lot of passes
because he was just a big strong dude.
And this is probably my, this is probably my clearest 4% exposure
blanket player. Like I'm, I'm going to have some
because the volume is there. Like if he's good, he's going to
have 100 plus targets and he's going to be fine with, you know,
a good Bill's offense. He's going to have a good year
and you're going to wish you had some of him.
But also like, don't really believe in it.
I, I, I'm going. To be 6% if I don't have if I
don't have Kincaid or Cook, I will sometimes reach and take
him with Allen just to make sure I have someone stacked and that
could be the look. I don't have Kincaid, so you
know, that's it's Coleman could be the reason Kincaid wasn't
such a great pick. So I'm willing to do that.
Otherwise, it's like I really need a wide receiver four and
it's the late 7th and Coleman's the only guy left.
That's the only kind of not Josh Allen time I'm taking at this
point. If I share this, will you guys
do you guys hear this and. You mentioned the wide.
Receivers, What about Keon Coleman in particular?
What have you seen from him through OTAs and how many can?
I think Keon's worked hard like anything.
College playbook, first NFL playbook.
Big difference. The verbiage where he's lining
up the side adjusts all the variances.
He's got to do even just what we ask in the in the run game for
our guys. I don't know specifically what
he was asked there some schools or you know, there's very
little. It's just like if it's not a
pass play, take a playoff, That's not that's not here.
He's got to be involved in in in all phases of our offense.
So but I see a guy who's working hard, he's competitive.
You guys have got to know his personality.
That's he's genuine. That's, that's truly who he is.
And like anything, he's going to have bumps in the road.
He's a rookie and and I think we all need to understand that, but
I think him and Josh are working on that rapport that's that's
going to be necessary between quarterback and receiver
Brandon. That's as bearish as it gets.
Let me tell you, let me tell you this.
The chat is trying to compare Keon Coleman and George Pickens.
Wrong Pickens coach would say he's a Dick maybe, but they
wouldn't say he doesn't know ball like that one.
That is to to intimate that Keon Coleman does not know how to run
block in this offense. That he never was taught how to
run. I don't know what they do down
there 'cause he doesn't know what he's.
Doing they take they take the playoff.
I mean that is. But that's not here.
That is about as bad as it gets. That is, that is like.
That's what happens Like get ready to learn backing up MVS
your rookie season like that is. That is, that is Chase Claypool
might make the roster music. Yeah, I still take him with Josh
Allen sometimes, but it is scary.
How? Can you not?
How can you not? My 4% exposure blanket just
became a 3% exposure blanket. No, I think I think he's
disappointed. I think this is a, this is a
total spot where you should not get to in the weeds where it's
like this could be a, this could be an, a chain situation, right?
Where it's like, it's like a chain was hurt and that he never
really started and like the coaches.
The the the problem with the Pickens and a chain coms is they
were good prospects in camper. Coleman wants it.
Yeah, there's a big difference. Yeah, I mean, Coleman was a
three-year guy with good draft capital.
I'll. Produce Jaden Reed at Michigan
State. He's not fast, but he's like
athletic in certain ways. You know, he's a basketball kind
of box out, I mean. He's he literally was on the
Michigan State. He was literally on the Michigan
State basketball team. Yeah, so and he's a good yards
after catch guy like you could see.
You could see you guys have Mac Hollands on the roster, too.
I'm going to be do we got to start drafting Mac Holland.
I've taken some Matt Mac Collins in the big board.
I oh, of course I have. It was before Claypools, before
Coleman. It was before MVSI was like is
Mac Collins. Does it make the roster?
Starting X. Far and away, far and away.
The funniest thing that happens is if KJ Hamler ends up making
the active roster. I mean, then then you're just
like, well, what are? Well, that's a Curtis Samuel.
Oh, we need 2% exposure sheets. You know, you get the 4%
blanket, but it's just a sheet. 2%.
We want a 2% exposure. Sheet.
It doesn't give you that warm but like it's there.
No, it's there. It's not.
It's not for comfort. But it's like, it's like when
you're, you stay the night, you stay the night at your friend's
house and they don't give you a blanket and you just like need
anything. You're just, you're just
freezing. You're, you know, you're 14
years old. You're and you're like, it's
like, it's like I found, I found AI found a really large beach
towel that his mom left out. I've done that move and he's
just shiver away. Oh God.
Yeah, look, I don't know. I don't have anything new or
novel to say. He's a 4% exposure blanket guy.
I I I can't find a compelling reason really to take him over
Brian Thomas Junior or Ladd Mcconkey.
Can we just Sam's methodology? Might need some work here.
Original ADP 18, new ADP18 change -4%.
I I, I have noticed Iuke. I actually, I'll put my hand up,
guys. I told you guys.
I told you guys I was drafting. No, Brandon Iuke.
I I've been taking him a smidge. Just like a small smidgen. 2%
exposure feet or exposure blanket.
Maybe, maybe, maybe if maybe a three-point 3% exposure blanket.
I really after talking to JJ the other day, he was just like,
that's just a guy who could bury you mean he and and he could he
he definitely could. What do you guys think is more
likely? He buries you via trade or he
buries you via not getting traded and just has like a nut
season. Not getting traded 'cause he was
awesome last year and he just needed more targets to bury you.
Yeah. Yeah, but I, I do think you
would need multiple injuries. I just, I don't think that's
just their offense works. They know they know he was
awesome, but they use him as like a decoy on a lot of their
stuff. Like I don't know man.
Like he not not like a like a full on decoy, but like the the
players that I would argue get like guaranteed touches every
week in the game plan are CMC and Debo.
They get a lot of stuff on the line of scrimmage.
They do a lot of that stuff. Even when they do play action or
fake run, it's a lot of short passes and Yak and and Iuke's
running vertical and you have to have air yards under that.
He's going to get he he attacks the middle of the field.
He attacks that deep middle of the field.
His profile's sexy for a downfield receiver, But we know
so much of this offense is predicated on run and short pass
with Yak and he doesn't get any of that.
So I think like for the offense to suddenly be about getting
even to the deep middle and intermediate and vertical routes
more like a high degree more would require one of CMC and
Debo to go down. Maybe both or or Kittle and or
right. Like I mean it.
He was so, so, so good last year and still wasn't good enough to
really justify this ADPI don't think like he where did he
finish? Like good on a per out run rate
basis, right? He was over three yards per out
run, but because he only had 105 targets, he finishes like wide
receiver 12 or something. I'm trying to pull it up right
now. Like, yeah, wide receiver 12 in
it's it's. Bet on talent.
I mean, total, he is one of the best, he's one of the most
talented receivers in the league and he's in a great system.
So it's just kind of like, yeah, I I do agree, like he to really
bear you, I would say just Debo needs to get hurt.
Like I don't see CMC hurting his ability to crush in a single
week, you know? Maybe.
Yeah, in one week. But for the season to bury,
maybe for Yeah, he could bury you in one week.
Yeah, but the yeah, he could be that.
Dude that like Pickens and Amari were in the in the in the in.
The exactly and I, I want CMC to stay healthy if I'm betting on
IUK because I want the 49ers to be the what they want to be, you
know but I want it to just flow more through IUK when they are
passing I. Don't know.
I mean, I think it seems it's like, yeah, see, the CMC injury
still benefits Iuke to some degree.
I mean, it's huge. If anything, if anything, it it
would just tilt their offense in a different direction.
Like it just wouldn't be, like you just wouldn't have all these
random. Games.
Does he have the Falcons year in him anymore?
Can we ever go back to that or is that just over?
He'd have to find a quarterback he trusts, and if you they're.
Too good. They're too good and he does not
have any interest in in Purdy throwing 45 * a game.
None, absolutely none. 00 interest than that.
You can 110 target game. Last year 29 target games.
This includes the three playoff games, 3/8 target games.
Everything else was seven or less.
A lot of six and seven target games, but this is a second
round. Receiver Devante Adams goes
behind him and had 175 targets, hits 70 more.
Targets and and his Gretsch. Do you know the lore?
He's the all time week 17 scorer.
He averages like 38 underdog points a game in Week 17.
Adam, What's that, Adams? He's had he's, I believe he's
been over 30 points in every Best Ball Mania final week.
Adam So I was so I was sweating. I was I was anti sweating Adams
with I had Kittle and they kept throwing on Adams.
Is there is there any quarterback or any coach that
knows he's getting away with it more than Kyle Shanahan with
Brock Purdy, like every day he wakes up and he's like, I don't
know this shit Can I can't believe he's like when I took
Trey Lance, I got rid of him and I just got gifted this and I can
wake up tomorrow and Purdy could turn back into a milk carton.
He knows it and you know he knows it.
In his heart of hearts, he knows that Purdy kind of stinks.
Like he really does. Yeah.
They did blow everyone out last year.
I mean that that is that is true, which is not ideal.
You actually don't want that for fantasy.
You want the Will Levis situation.
You want you want the pick sixes?
You want some some close games. I don't know if you want the
pick sixes with the 49ers though, 'cause they they will
just shut it down. They I'm worried, I'm more
worried Shanahan goes, you know, Mike Vrabel, right?
If you're if we're talking Titans comparisons, I don't
think he ever embraces the past like that.
Again, what what would be your guys's counter to my little rant
there though 'cause I, I actually like want to get in on
Auk and and for you to say that JJ made.
That case, the counter is that the counter is that you're
right, the counter is that you're right.
I I think Ayuk is probably the worst take in the second.
Round that's not the counter that you just agreed with him.
I I want to kick Ayuk. He's really good.
I had him a lot last year and loved how good he was, but like,
I want to know. I want to know the counter to
why I should be drafting him in the second round when he had 105
targets last year and finished outside the top 12 receivers in
points per game and half PPR. Even on a three plus yards per
out run, 13 plus yards per target, this guy was like so
good per out. You can't imagine his efficiency
going higher. And I'm not fading the
efficiency, but like, where's the volume going to come from
that still matters in fantasy. Full point.
Can't be as confident as we think about Debo's health and
Kittle's like. Yeah, I think what what it would
my my pushback would be generally volume we use as a
proxy for talent. You know, it's like baked into
the the talent equation. How good is this guy?
But he's so efficient on a per route basis.
And we know that this offense is kind of loaded with stars.
We know the game plan specifically to their opponents
really, really well. It's a hyper efficient offense.
He's in an unfortunate situation that's actually downplaying his
talent. And I think we can feel pretty
confident about that. Look at stuff like open score
the last two years. He's been top 15 in open score
in both years. Like there's lots of there's
lots of evidence that Iuke is a star.
And so it is just that you're getting a star wide receiver in
the second round in a market that is pricing wide receivers
up more than ever before. And he's in a good offense.
He's going to have efficient quarterback play.
And you like, yeah, you kind of hope for the best a little bit
on the volume stuff. It's but you're betting you just
a bet on, it's a bet on talent. It's just a pure bet on talent.
Yeah, that's fair. I mean, honestly, like that's
fair. I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm subbing for
Sam today. I got to throw in a few that's
fairs. But I like honestly, I, I get
that and I don't want him to be the guy who scores 50 points in
the playoffs and I don't have much exposure to him, so I'll
probably take some, but I'm like, I'm looking at his game
log right now. I mean, he had 32 yards, 68 and
49 in their three playoff games. The 68 was against Detroit and
one of his three catches and was off the face mask of the
defendant. You know what I mean?
Like without that play, he's sub 50 yards in all three playoff
games. It's just like, and he did that
a few times in the regular season.
He had a bunch of three catch games, a couple 2 catch games
because the target targets are not strong.
It's just like you got to get, I think you have to build like a
Deante Johnson is a great pick with Brandon Nyuk.
Like he's a cheap source of consistent volumes volume
because I do think Nyuk's going to have games that are not very
usable because they aren't going to need to throw down field a
ton. And they they aren't going to
just they don't throw to him when they don't need to.
Why would they risk throwing down field when McCaffrey and
Debo are dominating in the short area?
The the hyper conservative play calling like Shanahan will just
stick with that stuff. And so in those games, you know
you're going to get some some non usable weeks out of a second
round wide receiver. So the rest of your receiver
room, I think you're looking for some usable stability.
And so like that's the Deontay Johnson comment, or at least
that's my my way of thinking through it.
But you you probably can't match IU's spike week upside, right?
Like you, you've got to have some exposure to that.
I I think so. I think you want exposure to it.
I take Olabi over him. I'm not like hammering him, but
he's I usually take, sometimes I mix it up, but he's I just think
it's like, damn, he's really good.
He's in a good situation. One that we expect to be
efficient. One can support big weeks.
The 49ers also with Purdy are a little bit different than they
used to be with Garoppolo, where like they will sometimes have
really impressive weeks through the air with Purdy.
It's not what they want to do. It's not what they show up
looking to do necessarily, but they have the ability to do it.
And I don't know, you know, when.
He hits defenders in the face mask and ricochets it back to
his receiver. What if the defense is worse
too? Like sometimes, you know, like
we're not very good at predicting defensive quality and
they've been good for a long time.
So we just assume that they'll be they'll be really, really
good again. They probably will be.
But like, that's another thing. Like, what if they're just
playing from behind a little bit more?
That's fair, That's fair. Any, anything that boosted
anything that boosted their volume to like closer to league
average levels would be insane, insane for him.
I, I want to move to Laporta, 'cause I kind of had this, I
kind of had this, this thought today.
Sam's not letting us talk about LaPorte.
Sam, Sam's not letting us talk. About He makes He's making us
skip to Rashad White. Let me, let me just let me just
let me just put this out there. I think he's going to get
significantly cheaper as as the offseason goes.
I just think there's going to be cheap stuff, McBride hype,
Andrews hype, like I just people are going to log in and be like,
I mean, do you know anyone who's like super bullish on him?
I I'm not really that bullish like he's, he's a good player
and I really liked him last year and maybe maybe there's 140
targets for him, but it's so hard to take a guy that high who
I don't think is going to score a ton of touchdowns, who has no
shot of leading his team in targets, right?
I mean that it's just a, it's just a hard, it's just a hard
sell. And I I so prefer the other
tight ends that I just end up with like none of him at this
cost. It seems maybe a little silly,
but I, I do think if the Jameson Williams stuff keeps up that we
will see Laporta fall because I do like it probably comes down
to basically how he projects, because I don't think from like
the people like me, like I think LaPorte is overpriced, but I'm
really into elite tight end. And then it feels like some of
the, it's like if you're more into the projections, you know,
like Leonie was saying, like the Titans don't project like that.
Well, like they're not like these crazy values by the
projections. So if the projections for
Laporta get a little worse, I would, I wonder if that's where
you start to see we're all kind of in a we're all like a little
bit more in lockstep that Laporta should be more of a
fourth round pick because it doesn't in weirdly, right.
The elite tight end crew I don't think is responsible for this
ADP because I'm like, I mean, at least from my side, I'm like, I
will like I basically would rather just take Kelsey straight
up. But if you're giving me third
round, Laporta versus Kelsey in the 4th, I'm taking Kelsey,
right, McBride and the McBride's going like, you know, you can
get McBride on the front half of the board in the fourth round or
you guys take LaPorte at like 3-10.
Give me McBride there all day. You can get Andrews in the 5th,
Kincaid in the 5th. Like it's just, he's been hard
for me to take without a decent discount.
And so I don't know, I think it'll just be, it'll come down
to the projection crowd and if they're, if they're going to,
you know, carry the flag form or not.
You with that crutch? Yeah, sorry, I was kind of not
paying attention to be honest with you.
That's fine, That's fine. That's fair.
We've all we've all we've all been there.
I got nothing to say about Rashad White.
It's like he's not even. He doesn't even exist to me when
I when I draft I I might have truly.
I agree with that. That would all all all rubber
stamp. He doesn't exist in me either.
Is that who it was about? Rashad White.
No, we. Were talking about how?
You, you saw not that hard. You don't even know what I.
Really did. I just got back from a road trip
to Montana over the weekend. Like it's been busy.
I've got the car for. Days.
I've got one Rashad White team. Wow.
Yeah, I take him a little like when he comes late six, you
know, it seems OK You're basically getting him where he
went last year, which seems a little silly on some level.
Yeah, it's ideological, but I. Only have 2%.
I have a 2% exposure sheet to Rashad White.
You have the you have the one. You have the 1% exposure beach
towel. Yeah, OK.
I mean, so I think Rashad White. Is probably this year.
'S Naji and Bucky Irving is this year's Jaylen Warren from last
year where I'm literally not taking Rashad White and I have a
fuck ton of Bucky Irving so hopefully.
That's right. But if it's not expound, expound
upon that please. Well, Sam shared a thing in the
ADP chasing chat a while back where he looked at the top,
however many running backs by ADP that included White and like
the rushing yards over expected from last year.
And it was like, Oh yeah, there's some good ones,
obviously some great ones done with the best running backs in
the league. And there's some that are like
kind of OK. And then there's Rashad White
who was at like the 10th percentile, right?
Like everyone else who's who is viewed this highly by the market
was at least 50th percentile or higher or something.
I wish Sam was here so he could actually tell you guys the real
stat. I'm just sort of paraphrasing
something that I don't even really remember, didn't look up
myself. But Rashad White's rushing
efficiency really, really weak relative to his ADP.
There's a lot of people who love the workload for for valid
reasons. Obviously what he did as a
receiver is incredibly important.
And he was really, really good as a receiver.
But like, he's legit really bad as a running back, as a rusher,
which is the most important part of, you know, probably the job,
right? Like you got to be able to.
It's not the most important part of the job for real NFL because
a lot of that is the pass game stuff.
But for playing time and for what the NFL teams want you to
do, like they want you to like hit a hole and run and gain
yardage when they hit, they call it running play.
And he stands in the backfield. He's not decisive.
His yards before contract contact are terrible because he
doesn't actually like run some of it.
Probably second year is his lake late career Le'veon Bell.
Right that's exactly what he is late career Le'veon Bell in his
second season, 3.6 yards per carry last year, 3.7 the year
prior. The the advance metrics back it
up. The over over expected stuff
backs it up. None of it is good as a runner.
Bucky Irving, not hyper efficient or I mean hyper
athletic, but was efficient in college and and is a decisive
runner was was like already praised for that in in in, in,
in in camp. And I think like you're running
a real risk of him just looking better.
Like basically that that Rashad White had the work lady did last
year because nobody could take it from him.
They had no backup. Bucky Irving wasn't an efficient
and good runner, productive runner in college, a little
concerned about the lack of athleticism and all that, but
they did draft him higher than expected.
He was like RB like eight or something in all of the, the
aggregated mock stuff going into the draft.
And then he got drafted as like the 6th and running back off the
board, which to me was like a positive.
You're like, OK, you got the bucks actually buying into this,
you know, production profile more so than the bad combine
numbers. And once you get that, you're
like, OK, they're kind of committed to this player.
They think he's a good a good option.
And so anyway, I, I mean, I'm, I'm kind of sold that Bucky
Irving's going to really contend to, to steal work.
I'm, I'm trying to look it up right now.
He was the 6th running back taken by actual draft capital,
which is like, I don't know, the, the buck seemed like to, to
think that he was good. They took him over a lot of
other guys that we we really like.
So this so the the thing that made me nervous, I talked to
Greg Brenos from coach speak Index and he was saying the pass
blocking was, was a concern for for Bucky.
And it does make you kind of think like, OK, what's the true,
true upside for for Bucky Irving?
Is he actually going to be, is he going to be able to displace
Rashad White on all downs? And pretty clearly, no, like
Rashad White has earned the trust on passing downs.
He's going to be out there as the receiver.
That's what he was in college. He was a really strong receiving
prospect coming in. He was able to establish himself
even with Fournette there in a rotation on all downs.
They were splitting series. So you know, pretty quickly
picked things up like blitz pickups and stuff and then last
year every down player. So he has that.
That's that's important. That's like really important
for, you know, what's the downside on white?
Like white might be, you know, kind of more of a receiving down
compliment. Maybe he's like A1A, but he gets
like he gets displaced a lot on a lot of like lower value stuff.
And then the question is, it is what's the goal line work?
But that's like a type of bet where you're betting basically
on a receiving role that we are pretty comfortable making in the
seventh round. And he he's almost to the
seventh round. So, you know, like he's, I think
it white, white is to the point where like I'm not taking him a
lot, but if he gets much cheaper, he's pretty good bet,
you know, 'cause you're, you're just kind of betting that he
gets enough of the rushing and he owns the receiving.
I, I get that case for, for best ball in some, in some cases,
like just cheap healthy volume without much risk to it.
And, and I don't think there's a ton of risk cause Bucky Irving
could just be not good enough. And your point about the pass
blocking is is well taken, but I just I.
Do just an exposure sheet on him.
So I'm not, I'm not like hammering white, but it I he's
on my radar of like if he keeps dropping.
But but why? What I don't understand about
Bucky's He caught 95 balls in in college.
He caught 56 last year at Oregon.
They obviously played him on a lot of passing downs.
He ran routes, though. I mean, that's the Oregon thing.
And also like, I don't know, Oregon numbers are like kind of
fake. You know, Troy Franklin has like
all these crazy numbers then ends up being a fourth round
pick. No one, no one wants him.
Yeah, maybe. He obviously played on passing
downs in college is what I don't understand about the pass
blocking thing is basically saying it's a really definitive
take. And I've seen it a lot.
And it's basically saying this guy who caught 56 passes last
year in college can't play in the passing game.
And that's the part where I'm like, well, he's so certain
about that. I would it would be less of a
concern if he wasn't landing with Rashad White, who's like,
you know, a bigger back who's also a receiving back and does
pass Blackwell. So the argument is that Bucky
takes some of the rushing stuff early 'cause he's a more
decisive runner and it's so obvious.
And then it's like, well, why are we subbing him out just for
the passing downs? Like, we can just keep him on
the field on some passing downs, too.
And that's like we're having to make an effort to bring Rashad
White onto the field on passing downs.
Which I could see happening. I mean if he if he gets up to
speed that could definitely happen.
So he had a 23.6 pass block grade in Oregon last year which
is horrendous. He wasn't 54.4 the year before
though, which is kind of fine, so maybe.
Maybe he just missed some stuff. Doesn't always and it's.
Not the end of the world. That stuff doesn't always
translate though, 'cause Chase Brown was the number one or #2
pass block grade guy in like all of college football, his final
season at Illinois and Zach Taylor and the Bengals coaches
are like, this guy is so bad a pass blocking, you wouldn't
believe it. You like, like you guys would
not believe how bad this guy is. And and then this offseason, all
they've said about him is he put the work in to get it in the
passing game. Like he learned how to block
you, blah, blah, blah, blah. But.
About who? Irving.
About Chase Brown, the Bengals coach just said that about Chase
Brown. Yeah, but like, I think at like
it's just. And I'm not saying, I'm not
saying I have any opinion on what college football running
backs go to pass blocking. I literally am only able to
interpret data provided for me in number form like and and so
that stuff is just not going to translate that well.
I probably wouldn't be like as in unnerving if he was a little
more expensive. Part of it's like he's super
cheap. And then and then there's no
competition for RB2. I don't think Chase Edmonds or
Sean Tucker's really going to contend with him for RB2.
We learned that last year. So it's like he's gonna probably
pretty clearly. Remember that week where
everyone wants to stand? Alone like secondary back.
I think so. Round 16 price, I mean, it's
crazy. I know it.
It should probably take a little bit more, while I should
probably get my 2% sheet on. I think I think the 2% sheet is
worn it on white and I hope he falls more like it would be nice
to just like I wish he was in that Aaron Jones group, but like
I don't know, like Aaron Jones versus Rashad White, like give
me. Aaron Jones much better in
football, yeah. He's way better.
I know he's old, but like he's been the last time we saw him he
looked awesome. Yeah, scored three TDs in the
playoffs in that. Playoff game, Brian, new to the
show, first time watching ADP, chasing all of these broad,
unjustifiably absolutist takes in June.
That's what we do here, buddy. Yeah, this.
Is this? Unquestionably the worst comment
I've ever seen on any live stream.
Brian, that is Impunis 4. All right, Kyron.
Kyron is Kyron and a Jane. You want to talk about something
cozy? Just being able to slip on my
cozy hotel Terry cloth robe of a third round a Jane Kyron.
I mean you can. Oh, it is nice.
It is very nice. Two of the best wide receivers
in the world and still take one of the guy.
Like take a guy who can conceivably finish with the most
points at running back. I mean, it is.
It is beautiful. I love fantasy football.
I love underdog. I love that this is the life
that we're living. It's great.
It's just a wonderful thing. Third round, a Chan.
I mean, it's beautiful. It's just a beautiful thing.
Thank you. Where did a Chan cover?
Because. Because of Kyron's price is why.
Because, because, because he and Kyron, he and Kyron are like the
tent poles of my of my year, basically.
Like if these guys are bad, I'm going to have a bad time.
I agree. I mean, I'm I'm in the same
position. I've taken a lot of those two
dudes as well. They're really nicely priced.
Yeah, I'm not. I'm not hammering Kyron as much
'cause I'm just like at that point I'm already worried about
getting behind a wide receiver and I'm more likely on the back
end of the board to have taken a Gibbs or to have taken a briefs
or something like that. So, but man, HN on the front
half of the board, I've usually got two receivers.
So easy. The way it lines up, it's so, so
easy to start receiver receiver on.
Front there's just no world where Kyron and HN belong in the
third round. We were just talking about like
concerns about like Ayuk, but also concerns about Devante
Adams and a lot of those late 2nd receivers.
I think definitely should be going out with those guys, even
though it's like structurally difficult anyway.
I, I love the situation that I pat, I know you've made the case
for the legendary downside on Kyron, but like we make these
picks knowing that there's downside on a lot of guys.
I, I, I. That strikes me as a he it.
Was it was legendary downside when he was 16th overall?
I I think the legendary downside is is minimized.
In the third, in the late third round, it's definitely
minimized. And there's still upside.
So like, the point is that when you make these picks with
running backs early, the whole idea of legendary upside is, is
there enough upside to justify the investment in a running back
pick in the early part? And there is with Kyron
Williams, his, you know, points per game scoring last year was
phenomenal. I don't think Quorum is like an
immediate threat to that. He wasn't super efficient last
year. He lost a lot of his like, you
know, his missed tackles, force per touch, all that stuff was
really good as a younger player got a lot weaker as he got
older. He might not just pick up
everything as quickly as as everyone's assuming.
There's a lot of scenarios where Kyron's still just the lead guy
and and then a very similar role and Blake, Quorum's basically a
straight up backup. And those are the scenarios
where you win when you take a guy who was number 2IN in
fantasy points per game last year by a lot, well ahead of
Raheem Monster, who led the NFL in touchdowns, 21 touchdowns.
He was three points per game better.
I mean, he's only behind McCaffrey.
He was closer to McCaffrey than any other back was to him in in
half PPR points per game last year.
And you're just getting him in the third round in his, you
know, third season after his breakout year.
Yeah, so I was looking at his stuff.
I wrote this article looking at the early round running backs
and he had 0.63 yards per outrun last year.
So you're like, all right, you're betting on workhorse
usage and rushing efficiency, but his rushing efficiency was
really good. RV5 and rush yards over expected
at 146. He had a 42% success rate, which
is really good. So you're a little bit worried
maybe about, you know what quorum comes in and does.
But like he was he was really good.
He was really good as a runner. He is a bit more of A2 down
profile. It is kind of classically
fragile in that sense of like they they added a rookie.
He doesn't have pedigree. He doesn't really have the
receiving efficiency. You're so it's like it's kind of
like workhorse usage touchdowns, the rushing efficiency staying
there. But like, you know, the
legendary upside concept is, was supposed to be about guys in the
top two rounds because that's like where the opportunity cost
was so high when you're talking about him in the third round and
it's like him versus, you know, I'm you're already to like T
Higgins, you know, at wide receiver, you're it's just the
opportunity cost is, is a lot lower than we're used to.
I've I've tried it to get, I was really low on him when he was in
like the early 3rd and late second.
I've. I had, I had, I've gotten a lot
more. He was gonna be my biggest.
He was gonna be my biggest fate of the year at the running back
six or whatever. Like, I was gonna just have
like, like straight, yeah. You couldn't take him there, but
at this I'm. Still underweight, but I'm, I, I
got from 1% to 4% already and I'm I'm continuing to move up
so. Everything you said about his
individual profile I understand and and accept and appreciate,
but part of his upside is just the situation.
It's the Rams, it's McVeigh, it's that they don't substitute
right because they don't want the team to match the opponent
team to match. They might use quorum a decent
amount. They might never substitute.
They might, he might still get, they talked about not as you
know, high of snap shares, but Kyron Williams bull case last
year. Part of it wasn't just whether
he was efficient as a runner, efficient as a receiver.
It was that he was playing 90% of the snaps, 80% of the snaps.
So few running backs that play that much.
He might come down and still be one of the top five ish running
backs and and and snap percentage right.
And then you're in an offense that uses the backs in the red
zone a ton. Todd Gurley was elite for that
reason. CJ Anderson, though, stepped in
and was elite for that reason. Cam Akers had stretches of of
elite usage and Kyron Williams had that last year.
He had the like the high value touches, right, even without a
ton of rushing or I mean receiving.
He had the goal line work, the Green Zone touches to go with
it. They keep their back on the
field. Whoever is on the field, he can
score so many T VS potentially. That's what you know Gurley did
in his prime and some of those other guys in the stretches of
of heavy usage in the Rams offense.
So I like, I'm, I'm less concerned about whether Kyron is
an elite talent and more concerned about missing out on
an offence that has been so, so valuable for its lead back over
the last like 5-6 years with McVeigh.
I mean, it's just and I, I also think I should be taking more
quorum as a handcuff, frankly. Yeah, I'm, I'm trying to take
more Quorum too. I'm trying to take more of both.
Yeah, I would say I would recommend at least a blanket on
Kyron. You don't want to go, you don't
want to go cheat. You definitely want to don't
want to go beach towel blankets blankets or or warmer.
Quorum Quorum is getting Quorum is getting pricey for a guy
who's got no or or paths where he's got at absolutely no stand
alone value like the running back 35 for a guy who might play
15 snaps a game or something like it's pretty expensive.
It's like what Chardonnay was last year, you know?
It's a it's a Alexander Madison when we used to like it, right?
It's, it's the, it's the, it's the contingent value play.
But like, oh man, Can you imagine?
Can you imagine how good it's going to hit if it hits?
Yeah. And I mean, like, look, there
are totally scenarios in which Kyron totally bus and Quorum is
the guy like Cam Akers, Daryl Henderson, we've all done this
before, but Kyron was at least a lot better than those guys, so.
I'm looking at now I actually have 15% Kyron.
He's my highest exposure early round running back.
Yeah, 'cause he's just, it's just you're, you're sitting on
the clock and you're like, I don't know, what do I do?
Mike Evans or Kyron, and you just take Kyron, all right?
Do we or do we cover it at all? That's that's all of our.
Slides we have any other. OK, well Gretch, no one
adequately prepared you for this, so I will let you, I will
let you go last. But we do the game where we pick
our favorite guy, we try and get as much CLV it's possible.
I already know I mean. Crane, Crane, or.
Go first 'cause I I never pick one and I pick one during the.
The guy that I'm taking in the last round of every single draft
right now as my drafts get to the last round is Odric Estimate
and he's gonna rise, absolutely. I took I took him last week.
He has. You took him last week.
Oh, he. He missed.
He missed the whole early part with a knee scope.
Right, but he's like he's the only back other back who has
size. The beats are saying that he's
going to play alongside Javonte. The Jalil McLaughlin stuff is
like, yeah, the 185 LB back looks good in in the practices
where you don't have pads on. Like once the pads get on, it's
going to be clear that the two backs that actually have size.
Well, and P Ryan has size too, but especially if P Ryan gets
cut and estimates going in the last, I get him in the last
round every single time. And they throw to their backs at
if he catches, if he's able to catch any passes out of the
backfield. But I think he has stand alone
value right out of the gate. They also use a committee.
You can't get 18th round backs that have like pretty clear
stand alone value. I think he probably does.
The other one that I've been taking a lot of the Davis you've
probably named before is Greg Dorch.
She's starting to get all this great hype.
And like when I take Kyler teams, I would rather stack it
with Dorch behind Michael Wilson and Zay Jones.
Who? That's a camp battle I.
Mean people people are unaware that Greg Dorch is just going to
straight up score more points than Michael Wilson and
honestly, more power to him for draft of Michael Wilson.
I get it. You want to back stack Kyler.
It's a it's a nice that's a that's a cozy thing is like
you're kind of in the you're in the dead zone of dead zones when
Kyler's Kyler falls 6 pots past 80.
But you know what? I'll take Kyler, I'll do a back
stack. You take you take Zay Jones, you
take Michael Wilson, you take Greg Dorch, and you're feeling
cozy as hell. All right, Crane, do you want to
go? I I've got a, I've got a really
good one, I think do. It.
Travis Kelsey, I mean, just, let's just be real about it.
Travis Kelsey is going to end up being a 2-3 turn pick the way
that he is on draftkings.com right now.
I mean, it's not even, it's already, it's already, it's
already happening. There the way to win this game
is just go check the DraftKings ADP.
Yeah. I mean, look, it's, it's just
that I believe, I mean the content sites are going to get
there eventually. I I don't know where where ETR
and Pat where you have them and stuff, but the content sites are
going to get there. Themselves.
We've been in and we remain in. Yeah, so it's it's happening.
We we are we are going to have we are going to have 2-3 turn
Travis, Kelsey it just that's the way the projections have it
like it. I actually think the only reason
why he is the tight end two right now is because he randomly
hurt his ankle last year and it made him play really bad for six
weeks. Yeah, I mean, he and he was
awesome in the playoffs, but that doesn't count because they
were saving him down the stretch, which they're
definitely going to do again because football's extremely
predictable, obviously. Yeah, I know the the Travis
Kelsey, he's been he's been he's he's my highest drafted tight
end and one of my highest drafted players arrived looks
like 123456, seventh seventh highest overall, highest drafted
tight end, basically tied with Mark Andrews.
All right, I will say all right, there was, there was, let's see,
123456 running backs with at least 140 rush yards over
expected last year. They were Christian McCaffrey,
Devon A Chan, Jalen Warren, Bruce Hall, Kyron Williams, and.
Samir White. James Connor.
I know this is well, here's the
deal. You're right that he's a good
pick, but you're so wrong that he's going to go higher because
it's not what underdog drafters do.
That's right, it's not what these underdog drafters do, but
it when we come into August and it's James Connor's the starter
rested with the starters during pre season.
Trey Benson not looking all that great.
Trey Benson still got work to do Trey Benson not going to push
for the week one starting job. Oh my God, disaster.
We can't be drafting him. That's where we're going to
we're going to that's the August drum beat on this stuff.
James Conner from everything we're hearing so far is the
clear cut starter entering the season.
That's not everything, but he's going in the 90s.
So it's something and so I think he's a pretty strong pick right
now. And I I don't anticipate that
late August drafters will just let us get the Cardinals clear
cut. Starting running back in the in
the 90s. I think you're gonna If he went
in the sixth round, would we be shocked in late August?
I don't think we would, but I think Davis is right that people
aren't gonna rise him up. And I think that makes him the
closest thing to here's Josh Jacobs from two years ago that
you can kind of get like, he was really good last.
Year he was really good. You know the the hard thing is
though. I like taking James Connor.
I'm getting really into it, but I think he's gonna stay cheap.
It's the right pick. And then you're like, I just got
all these bags of a 29 year old running back and you're like,
well, if I lose, I deserve to lose, you know, like, yeah.
I had that last year with Raheem Mostert and it worked out really
great. I was really glad to have big
bags of Raheem Mostert. Sometimes that people are just
like predicting injury way too heavily.
That was the case for most of last year.
I think that's the case for Connor.
I think everyone just thinks he's going to be.
Well, you know, you pull, you pull the marble out of the jar
until you get the black one, and then once you get the black one,
there's no, there's no coming back.
Every other time you get the other good colors, you're
winning. Yeah, you need a discount.
You need a discount to reflect a.
Discount we're getting the marble we're.
Getting the discount like James Conner is one of the clearest
cases where we're getting the discount on age.
Like he was really good last year.
He's in an offense we're excited about.
They draft a third round rookie, but all indications are he's
still the starter. Maybe he loses work down the
stretch, like he could end up being kind of a bad pick because
he ends up getting displaced down the stretch by Benson.
But he just strikes me as an archetype that like even last
year, like Alex Alexander Madison's set up or James
Conner's set up, Which one's better?
Like dude, he's such an easy pick.
To your point about he could be a bad pick down the stretch,
he's such an easy pick in like the marathon.
Even the eliminator to me. I understand it can be a
problem. Late, but I just wrote up a
second piece on that recently in the sub stack, dude.
Like some of the the numbers like only 9% of the field are
still existing in week nine. I just pulled this up.
I have it for every every chart, but as you enter like the middle
of the year of the year, week eight, week nine, you're down to
like 10% of the remaining team. So you need to score early.
I know a lot of this stuff is like you, you need to score late
too because the pods get tougher.
But like James Conner's a helpful play in that type of a
format too, like because he could then just also be good the
whole year. Like to your point, the downside
is that he's not, it's not back way to production, but
especially the marathon. My God, he's going to be a smash
in the marathon. I guess that's a good point.
Yeah, Marathon that. Was a that's fair, Davis wanted
to say. That's fair.
That I guess that was a good point.
Which is a non derogatory. That's fair.
James Conner.
James Conner is a marathon ass pick.
He's also a great zero or B pick for those reasons.
If he's just even if he doesn't produce late, if he's if he's an
advance rate guy and then your others, you know, Audrick
estimate hits late. By the way, some of the chat
said was there any Audrick estimates good notes there?
And I was looking some up really good.
Not really good like great elite, but very strong missed
tackles, force per touch numbers and really good actually close
to elite explosion numbers, vertical and broad.
Honestly he's was like pretty good in college but had a shitty
combine so. He didn't have that shitty of
one. He he ran a slow 40, but he had
good explosion numbers. Yeah.
All right, Crane, let's get out
of here. Greg, you go first.
Tell the people stealing signals what what they can get, where
they can get it. Yeah, Stealing Signals
newsletter, Ben Greshot sub stock.com, Stealing Signals
YouTube at Stealing Signals on YouTube.
Go subscribe to that. Just been building that up
recently and stealing Bananas podcast with Sean Siegel.
Ship chasing on the regular channel or the on this same
channel on the regular. What do we call that?
Pat the ship chasing the Thursday show.
Yeah, I know like relative taste.
What what are they? What are like other?
What do we call the show we've been doing for the last five
years? It's hard to say.
It's on this channel. It's on this channel.
Like this channel. Subscribe to this channel.
Corrine what are? The last day of the the Sidekick
Flash sale if you want to take advantage of that $350.00 for
your first year legendaryupside.com/sidekick use
promo code leg up when signing up.
That'll be live through the end of tonight.
And yeah, check out legendaryupside.com.
Daniel Raz had an awesome piece on basically how he's viewing
this market, what he's trying to do to stay ahead of the
Avalanche and then identifying the Panthers, Broncos and
Patriots as correlated ways to kind of help dig yourself out of
a of a mild avalanche burial. Not not a big one, but you know,
you get a little behind those kind of correlated team bets as
as being ways to help dig yourself out a little bit.
So highly, highly recommend that article.
Some good content from Sacrilegious coming up on the
site and I mentioned if you haven't checked out my article
on the the running back landscape, I'm planning to do a
follow up on on that. But the first part looking at
the earlier on running backs also up on the site.
There we go everyone, thank you very much for for listening and
watching to ADP chasing ship chasing will be back on
Thursday. I will.
We'll see you back next Monday later.
I got to end it, no? All right, it's.
Been real.