All right, everyone. Welcome to the first episode of
ADP Chasing. Sorry, we're starting about 10
minutes late. You can thank Pat for that one,
but we've got tons of rookie landing spots.
Talk through running backs, wide receivers, tight ends,
quarterbacks. We'll try to hit it all.
Hopefully keep the show under 3 hours.
We'll see. Let's do it.
Pat Fryer Helmo. This is why.
This is why I'm Hot Anita. Handjob.
Fix your sight. Jamar Alpha play chase you.
Can't. Handle the heat.
It looks like we're. Finally, at this point, you're
right. Pat Davis, how we doing, fellas?
Davis, I think last time I talked to you during the draft
on Thursday, your brain had been completely broken by the Michael
Panics pick. Have you recovered at all since?
Then it's well, it got saved. It was saved with the with the
Kansas City Chiefs trading up a marginal Day 2 selection in
order. Or day four selection.
Or day three selection in round four to select Xavier Worthy
from the University of Texas at Austin doing that trade with the
Buffalo Bills. I mean, you can just.
You can. You don't even have to close
your eyes to see Xavier Worthy doing the peace sign into the
end zone against the Bills in the AFC Conference Championship
game in about 8 short months. It's, it's.
Beautiful. It does just seem so, so ominous
for the Bills making that trade with the Chiefs.
I mean, what could go wrong? Pat?
What? Could go wrong.
Yeah, doing good. Just jumping over from Pete's
stream and got my first Best Ball Mania draft in the books
right as it opened. So already already drafting?
Apparently so is everyone else 'cause like we're way ahead of
schedule from last year with with Best Ball Mania Spill,
right? Just fun to see, fun to see,
everyone excited and drafting. Yeah, Davis and I were talking
before the show. Davis, I think you had done one
draft as well, right? Any early takeaways from that
first draft? I mean, basically people are
just as horny for the rookies as they were in the big board.
So if you really like drafting veterans, you know, if you're if
you're sort of a Michael Leone style drafter right now, you can
just kind of log on and get whoever you want.
Like, oh, like you, you're big Mike Williams guy.
You big, you big Mike Williams Aaron Rodgers guy free.
Do you do you do you want to do a Justin Herbert Josh Palmer
team free Cooper Cup Matt Stafford free like so which
it's. I mean, Crane is laughing, but
there are people out there who will just be like.
It's just so true. Like, I mean it's seen at the
top of my rags that are like. Wait, Austin Eckler?
No, no, no. I think I'll take Kamani Vidal.
Thank you. Very.
Much, Yeah. No, that's exactly the landscape
we're in right now. Yeah, anyone over the age,
anyone over the age of 27 is discounted a full round from
what they're gonna be a month from now.
Pretty much is is the math there?
Yeah, and I remember from last year, there's all like it.
It really depends what room you get in these really early season
ones. I think I did a couple on the
first day last year and then some of them, like the rookie
that is unranked, will just slip through the cracks of the 18th
round. And then sometimes you're in a
room with some Sitka who grabs them like 30 rounds or 30 picks
before where they should be going in ADP.
That that happened to me. I had Ben Sinnett starred.
You know, I was just ready to go.
I was going to take him in the 16th round.
I go to go pick Ben Sinnett in the 16th round and he's already
gone. I'm like, OK, all right, maybe,
maybe drafting on the literal day the contest opens is not
that fun. I've seen some weird stuff with
like Austin Eckler actually went really early and you know
sometimes you'll see these veterans go way before you
think, I guess I'm guessing people are just drafting off of
very different ranks to to kind of where we're at on these guys
or maybe they're just it's vibes but you're you're seeing some,
you are actually seeing some some veterans that you'd
normally expect to fall right now go kind of early.
Well, the Canary in the coal mine is where does Tyler Lockett
go in your draft, if Tyler Lockett goes in the seventh
round, you have got an established the run subscriber
in in that in that room. And if he if he makes the Tyler
Lockett, Josh Palmer a 7-8. Turn then.
Then you really know that actually might just be Leonie's.
2nd That's just Leonie. Yeah, that's just Leonie.
Yeah, you can just look at the username for that one.
Yeah. OK.
Well, we have a lot to discuss. I wanted to start with you know,
there's no ADP movement to discuss.
Obviously we're just gonna get to rookie landing spots today.
So what I have here on this chart, this is just rookie wide
receivers sorted by draft capital in the first three
rounds on this table now and then have their landing spot, my
landing spot rank. Just some context on that.
This was me just trying to rank landing spots for the random
draw. Round one through 3.
Rookie so. You did this before the draft,
right? I think.
We I did this, yeah, yeah. I did this before the draft.
So some of this should be updated.
Like, for instance, maybe you could argue New England's
probably a slightly better landing spot now if you're high
on Drake, May you know, maybe Denver's not quite as awful now
that Bonex is there instead of Jared Sidham.
Whatever. Right.
These should probably slightly be updated post draft, but
that's the general idea of those.
And then I just have the 80 PS in there.
So I think we should just kind of go one by one through these.
Marvin Harrison, we've we've talked it to death.
So I wanted to start with Malik Neighbors, his sort of initial
opening. Doesn't doesn't he go up a
little? Isn't that you're not you?
Think Marvin Harris should go up a little.
We can start there if you want. I I think he goes up a little
slash. It kind of holds.
Maybe it would be. It would be kind of interesting
if he fell, because then then there was absolutely no.
War was going on, yeah. Yeah, what was going on?
Well, I I moved him up a a tidge in the overall in my ranks
because I moved a chain down. So I had.
I had. I had a.
Chain and maybe Kyron down a little too.
I'm retired. I'm retired, way down.
Where did you move? The right ahead of Josh Jacobs
in ETN. That's more courageous than I
would. I I moved him down to Tier 2 to
25. So I I think I'm being a coward.
Yeah, I hear. Move him down further.
No, I'm being the coward I've got.
Yeah, I mean, look, we can just get this out of the way right
now, but what who's to say which one is Cam Akers and which one
is Daryl Henderson in this equation?
I I don't think it's possible to say, and I especially don't
think it's possible to say, 'cause I don't think Sean
McVeigh knows. Yeah, I mean, I think it's just
like the thing with Kyron is that he's kind of like he's sort
of a Josh Jacobs style guy. And when you have a guy like
that and he's in line to get all the work and then you know he
gets all the work, It's super valuable if the offense is good
and he's good enough. But all of a sudden that path is
like looking much thinner to him actually being what he was last
year. So I I think I would take a
little bit at like a 2-3 turn just to have it.
But I I think where you have him ranked is is at is more
accurate. Yeah, I mean, I love.
Daryl Henderson in the third. You're gonna love Kyron Williams
in the third. Yeah.
And it depends how much you believe too, this thing that
Sean McVeigh always uses, a workhorse running back, I I
think like those narratives. I think there's definitely some
truth to it that that's what he prefers.
But. Prefers it for sure.
Also look at their backup running backs last year.
I mean it was it was a joke who they had behind Kyron.
So maybe there's more chance of a committee.
Maybe they realize you know 195 LB Kyron Williams or whatever is
playing weight is now should not be a full workhorse back after
getting injured both of his years playing in the NFL so far.
So yeah, I I think Kyron should take a pretty sizable hit.
The third round draft capital is is not nothing for running backs
like you know it can fail. You can draft Tank Bigsby, but
third round capital is not nothing.
And here's the thing with Quorum, right He wasn't a great
prospect. If you're just looking at, like,
you know, trying to, trying to take a running back who you know
is going to be a star at the next level.
But if you're just trying to find another Kyron Williams,
he's almost the best prospect available.
Like, if you just want that Blake Quorum is who you should
draft. And so that in some way that
that makes it especially concerning for Williams, 'cause
he is just like a Kyron Williams.
And McVeigh said this, he was like, I see a lot of traits that
remind me of Kyron Williams in Blake Korum.
That's like why we liked him. So that's just not ideal.
If the goal with Kyron is that he just has all the work, he
probably doesn't. And I know they tend to lean on
one back and everything, but what if Kyron tweaks his ankle
and they lean on Korum for a while and that goes pretty well?
That's a that's a pretty big concern.
So if if Kyron falls to the to the third round, we will not be
fighting it, we'll kind of fall along with that ADPI.
I'm just the initial rankings we didn't want to have, like, you
know, if you get Kyron falling basically a round past where he
was going in the big board, getting a little bit of that
felt OK. Correct, yeah.
I just it's not the type of spot to make a stance, I don't think.
Yeah, I think we'll have plenty of Kyron talk this offseason.
I imagine he'll be a faller probably next week.
Let's get back to to neighbors here.
I do agree on on Harrison to close that point.
I do think it's it's definitely fair if you want to bump them up
a couple spots on neighbors. I think that's the one where
people are really calling into question the landing spot.
And my opinion with the Giants is that I don't think it's that
bad of a landing spot. I had it as sort of a middle
tier landing spot here. But curious, Starting with you,
Davis. Do you think Neighbors Should
Fall? Should rise off this sort of
initial rank of 26 based on his landing spot in the Giants.
Yeah, he definitely should fall because that big board ADP
cascading was capturing some chance of him being a Los
Angeles Charger, right? So some chance of him getting
the Lad Mcconkey, Yahtzee spot. There's a couple things going
on. The first being, you know, the
Giants is going to be this low volume, run it conservative.
You know, just like not explosive offense.
That doesn't really matter when you account for the fact that
neighbors might get 30% of the targets.
But it's just like, I don't know if I'm taking a guy in first
three rounds. I got to think there's some
chance that he can have like a really ridiculous, crazy run as
a rookie and he's just really not set up to do that one.
It's like there's crazy, crowded wide receiver room, and it feels
like, what? Crowded in the sense of a lot of
guys who need to play but not who are better than him.
They need to play. Do any of them need to play?
Oh, maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm wrong about this, but my my read
is that their neighbors neighbors is going to play on
the outside because all the guys they have who can play are slot
wide receivers. Yeah, that's probably true.
But like if you were talk about overthinking it if you're like.
Yeah, that's so true. Malik neighbors inside 'cause I
gotta have Jalen Hyatt there. Like what?
No dude flame like neighbors. Wherever you think is best,
that's. I mean six level pick, awesome
prospects great everywhere you can move them around the
formation. One thing I would note too and I
don't know if this is maybe helping your argument Davis, but
I will just note the the we we had Daniel Jones quite a bit
higher in the initial leg up ranks.
I mentioned this on Pete Stream. Daniel Raz was like, hey man,
Daniel Jones has injury guarantees in his contract and
this is a Russell Wilson. Potential situation.
Right. Drew Lock is behind Daniel
Jones. You know who's not conservative.
You know who is willing to Chuck it around.
You know who got JSN to to get some some semi final teams
through. For me, you're.
Talking me into it, You're talking me into it right now.
I I mean I am going to guess, I am going to guess that I
probably do end up a little bit lower on neighbors, you know in
terms of like and like exposure stuff because right now he's
just going behind guys who I well the one for me is waddle.
I prefer Waddle to neighbors and and I'll be there and I'm going
to have the option to make that choice a ton of times and I
probably am just going to take Waddle there a lot.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Let's hit some.
So for the guys that go near him, I'm kind of guessing at how
ADP will shake out. Where do you guys stand on,
let's say, neighbors versus DK Metcalf?
Neighbors. Neighbors.
OK, yeah, I think I'd go neighbors there too.
What about neighbors? Verse Stephon Diggs.
Diggs. I.
Think that's? Some argument.
With Diggs, and that's where, like I think with Diggs and Nico
Collins, like to your point, Davis of if I take a guy in the
third round, I wanna see like the top five wide receiver
ceiling at least be plausible. And on the Giants I I again, I
think this Giants landing spot is like not that bad 'cause it's
instant 30% target. Share if neighbors and targets.
If he's just decent, he doesn't even have to be amazing to get
that. But like, man, the the ceiling
of a wide receiver on the Texans or same thing with Waddle,
right? Like I see this, the ceiling
there more with him. Also the.
Single weak ceiling of. That's I'm moving often about
single weak. Stuff, Yeah, Yeah, exactly.
Yeah. I mean, and the Texans like,
God, you could have Nico Collins just blow up.
Same with Diggs. And in a weird way, Neighbors
has maybe like a higher ceiling from like a season long
perspective, but I don't. But are we ever Like how many
times is he just gonna, like, go nuclear this year?
Like it's kind of tougher to see that.
It would require Daniel Jones committing to throwing deep
balls, right? I mean and neighbors to be the
target of those. Well, neighbors can be used.
He's DJ Moore, right? That's, that's the comp.
And so he can be used in all aspects and that that's one of
his, you know, I think a little like Stefan Diggs where like if
you want to use him as a deep threat, it's going to work.
If you want to use him on shallow stuff too, that's also
going to work. So I don't.
Daniel Jones will some somewhat limit his usage, but I'm not in
a way that I think crushes his value, Yeah.
That seems that seems about right, yeah.
You're so close to saying that seems fair.
I didn't. But it wasn't unhinged.
It wasn't. It wasn't.
It wasn't unhinged enough to give him a That seems fair.
I just You guys find that to be the hardest part of the spot,
Hardest area of the draft to make picks is like the two,
three turns, like the secondary wide receiver ones.
Sam Laporta, you've got the quarterbacks there.
You've got the dregs of the top tier running against just.
I guess it's not that dissimilar from last year.
I'm gonna take a lot of HN there and let the market decide on the
wide receiver I get in the third.
That's the way I'm I'm gonna be playing it early and probably
later too. But yeah, you know.
It's such a flat tier. It's such a flat tier of wide
receivers in that range that yeah, and again, that's not.
I'm not using that to argue like, oh, you shouldn't take
them, but like, you could honestly give me like so many
different orderings. Like once Drake London is off
the board, if you want to give me any ordering of like Devante
Adams through Devante Smith, I'm not going to, like argue with
you that hard about how you order those guys, 'cause I
think, like, I have an opinion, but I don't think it's clear
really how you should prioritize that next week for wide
receiver. So yeah, I think it's a tricky
part of the area to draft and it's probably somewhere where
I'll where I'll be like diversifying more than taking
huge, huge stance. I'll take if, if this is a good
one. Am I going to be able to take
Debo in that range for the entirety of of the offseason?
Now that's Oh my God, OK, we all got 30% of him.
You want to talk about the guy who literally exemplifies the
point of this exercise that we're doing like the most amount
of points you can score in one game for fantasy football and
we're and we're getting Debo at the 2-3 turn.
It's like, thanks for showing up everyone.
Yeah, and any any time you can get, you know Drake Drake, May's
wide receiver. One in the second round.
No, you don't see that hard kit doesn't work, 'cause I fucking.
Want that? That's not even derogatory.
I'm talking about. That doesn't, that also doesn't
that also doesn't work for me. I probably, I probably am more
in on him in that spot. Yeah, me too.
Yeah, everyone's, everyone's commenting on the lighting.
You know, when you move every nine months, you just don't have
a great lighting set up guys. And I'm sorry, it's.
Such a good burn 'cause it is coming right in your eyes.
Like, it's like you're a bunker that's such a specific Oh my
God. Let's get on.
Roman Doonesay, as you know, Neighbors, I think is seen as
more of a neutral landing spot, a doonze I think is more clearly
bad for redraft. Pat, do you see it that way?
Would you be touching him at his quote UN quote ADP of 44 right
now? No, no, I think he has to fall.
I expect to be somewhat in on him.
If he does fall, it would be kind of fun to be out on a
rookie wide receiver. Hey, I did it last year.
It's yeah, come join me. Maybe, maybe I'll 'cause I mean,
there are some pretty clear JSN parallels.
You also have a rookie quarterback, and I think it is,
it's definitely like these are better wide receivers that he's
competing with than DK Metcalf and and Tyler Locke, you know,
Allen and and more, I think are both.
That's a better combo. So that's that's tough.
So even if you think the doomsday's better than JSN, you
have even tougher competition and you have a rookie
quarterback and you've got a Shane Waldron offense, so it's
like the exact same coordinator. So it's just it's not.
Don't be no, don't be scarred. This is the this is the thing
that led to you guys fading. Rashi rice.
Dude, you can't. I didn't fade.
Rashi rice I I took. Just didn't Hey, I was really
high on Rashi rice. OK, this is the thing that
allowed drafters as a whole to do Sky more in the eighth round
again last year after not scoring A touchdown for the
entirety of his rookie season. What if it's as simple as Keenan
is a billion years old and Rome is just probably better than
him? Like at this stage of their like
more able to generate separation and get open.
Keenan was really good last year and particularly an open score.
I believe he was like top three among wide receivers, so he
hasn't shown any signs of decline.
Like the I don't want to say any.
I mean, he's constantly getting banged up and stuff, but he
still looks really good. So I don't know.
I mean, it's possible by the end of the season that it's just
like the Rome show for sure. I the thing though, when you
compare it to like Rashi Rice and Skye Moore.
Skye Moore went in what the the eighth round by the time we were
finished pumping him and Rice then goes in like the 12th or
the 11th or whatever. Well, this currently is the
reverse where Doomsay is going higher than JSN even went.
Last he will fall, though Rome will be a big faller.
So where So we have him at 67 or it comes out at 66 in the ranks
and that is where I I would take him.
That's similar to JSM last year, right, where you're taking him
in the 6th. We were hearing from you know
certain personalities on ADP chasing that we shouldn't be
doing that. So if I if I can get Rome in the
6th which is basically just doing the JSM.
I've got him. I've got him at 59 and I feel
like a like a bear, honestly. Like, not a not a Chicago bear.
An actual bear. Yeah I would So on on the JSN
thing First off I think Rome got picked in the top ten of NFL
draft JSN was what in the early 20s late teens that that's a big
difference to me and I think most models that factor in draft
capital would show that as being a pretty big difference in their
prospect profile. So I I think it's a if yeah if
you're right that or if your ranking approximates ADP and he
falls to the 60s seventies. I think it's fine.
I don't think it'd be a target for me there.
Just cause. Yeah, like you can say what if
you know what if he's A2 wide receiver set starter What if
Keenan Allen falls off a lot. OK, then we're talking about the
wide receiver 2 on a team with the rookie quarterback like it's
still just. Not not your average, not your
average rookie quarterback. And I also I also do want to
make this point, which is a little bit different and this
should have been something that worked out for JSN, but it
didn't 'cause it turns out JS NS just not very good.
But this is the wide receiving depth chart behind the three
star wide receivers for the Chicago Bears, Colin Johnson,
Dante Pettis, Tyler Scott and Bayliss Jones.
Literally not one player who is even a rotation piece.
I'm like, not a guy who deserves targets at like, not even a
fourth guy. You can squint and be like Jalen
Tolbert, like, oh, he's he's kind of interesting.
Like just like that group of guys I just mentioned might see
10 targets the entire season, which does matter to the math.
Of There's no Jake, There's no Jake Bobo coming for Ramadan's.
His role is all you're saying. Comet can earn some target.
Like Comet's not going to have like 7% targets per hour.
He's not Durham Smythe. I'm not saying he's like, you
know, stealing targets from a doonze exactly.
But like he is going to get some targets.
It just creates a smaller kind of overall pie for everybody
else. By the way, Keenan Allen LED all
wide receivers in open score last year, actually undersold
that part of the point. So I don't know it's.
So if you want your. Veterans, come come log on
underdog today and go get them. Now's a good time.
Well, well, Moore and and Allen need to fall as well.
You know, this is this was bad for them.
Oh. I so I think DJ Moore is just
gonna he's gonna be out of jail for the first time in his life.
I just. I think there's no ceiling too
high for him. But these these two guys should
court. Like I do not view this like the
Texan situation. I think it's DJ Moore clear
break for the other two and then I don't know how the other two
are going to work out. Yeah, I.
Don't know Moore. Moore's like more of a big play
guy and he's got Allen. Is Allen gets open still?
You know who's, you know who's a big play guy as well.
It's Caleb Williams. Caleb Williams Yeah, yeah.
Well, that's true. It's.
Going to be a fascinating wide receiver situation to watch in
fantasy this year. I also will say I think Caleb
Williams is going to be good, but man, if he's bad this year,
there are no excuses like. We're back.
Maybe if you. Had if you had Caleb Williams
bear chatter on April 20. 9th you you win you.
Ship it I'm. Just saying, I'm not going to do
this, but if you wanted to carve out a niche as like a Caleb
Williams hater, I think the. Media.
Is gonna amplify that so strongly if he turns.
Out there, there are already there are already these people.
They were, they were the Justin Field Legion.
They were there. They were so mad about the
franchise getting turned over the guy who wore a dress once.
Yeah, no excuses. No excuses.
Caleb Williams, you got three of the best 25 wide receivers in
the league already. You got Cole Comet?
Yeah, you gotta figure it out. Let's talk Brian Thomas.
Yeah, Brian Thomas here. He so he goes to pick 23 a bit
of a slide based on his draft capital projection, but not too
much. I had him going to the 6th best
landing spot for wide receivers and IFL.
This one is kind of an interesting one for me.
My logic in having Jacksonville so high is that yes, there are
kind of a lot of bodies here and you could say it's crowded, but
I think it's more so crowded in the Giants wide receiver room is
crowded sense and that, you know, Christian Kirk is good,
Christian Kirk is good, but after that man Gabe Davis, I
think Zay Jones is very likely to get caught still.
So I I don't think it's that crowded and there's not really,
you know, aside from Kirk, a true alpha wide receiver one
here. So I think if Thomas is good,
this could still be a really attractive landing spot for him.
Curious what you guys think and where you'd be drafting him
relative to his current ADP of 66.
I'm just not going to get any of them because I'm going to take
Worthy and Lad straight up over him.
I know I think he's good. I think it's fine, but those
guys are better, better picks than fantasy football.
Yeah. I'm going to have some Thomas I
I just drafted him on my first team today actually and I still
got worthy which is the the advantage of drafting right now
is that worthy's kind of moving up.
He'll eventually flip Thomas and that's how we have it.
Once you know AD PS not baked in, we've got him like you know
15 picks ahead of Thomas where where we think this eventually
ends up. But I think him and Ladd are are
pretty comparable. Ladd is obviously pretty
exciting in terms of his ability to command targets but this is
going to be an offence that's that's lower volume.
He's not he's somewhat explosive but he's more you're more
betting on his ability to command targets with with a
little competition. Thomas is a big play guy and
he's a big play guy who landed with Trevor Lawrence.
And Trevor Lawrence is, you know, not a perfect quarterback.
But part of the reason that people are are annoyed with him
is that he makes too many. He takes shots, he plays
aggressive. And what is this offense signal
They they signed Gabe Davis and then they draft Gabe Davis like
they they want to. They want to take shots down
field and they have Kirk Kirk. They have Christian Kirk and
Evan Ingram who both get open underneath.
So it's actually pretty, it's a cohesive offensive plan where
you've got these two boundary wide receivers that are going to
be going deep and then you've got guys operating over the
middle of field so you can get open.
You got Travis Etienne there as well like this.
This offense could be really fun.
And I think Brian Thomas sneakily had a really good
landing spot like this, this. That's him up very well, I
think. I don't think it's AI, don't
think it's a super elite landing spot for total number of overall
targets like Rod because because Ingram and Kirk are just, I mean
Evan Ingram had 111 receptions last season.
But what it is, I actually think it's very similar for Worthy,
where it's like if if the scouts are right and Brian Thomas can
play, it's a very good landing spot for his skill set and his
quarterbacks skill set. What if?
What if Christian Watson was healthy and on the giant?
Sure, Great. Great.
Yes. That's what we're doing here,
right. And it's like, yeah, five
points, three points, two points, 2525, you know, 22,
zero. Like that's what we're that's
what we're going for with with Brian Thomas.
I agree it's not about RAW targets, but it's about his
ability to to explode for. A few I I moved him too low.
I'm going to move him up. Where?
Where do you have him, Corrine? We've got him.
Sixty. He comes out of 66, one spot
behind a dunes A1 spot ahead of Lad.
Well lad, Lad has some room to come up but but we've got Lad
right right behind him in the Pure Rings.
Yeah, I also just I I ran some quick numbers.
He had 17 touchdowns last year in LSU.
That's. That seems like a lot, yeah.
And I last time I checked the underdog was 1/2 DPR site so
that that. Can be more.
More than neighbors. More touchdowns than neighbors?
He does profile like his size and speed and like you said, you
know a big play threat paired with Trevor Lawrence just seems
like a good half PPR spike week machine.
And people hated on Ridley last year 'cause obviously he went
too high 2-3 turn. He had plenty of spike weeks
last year like he had also tons of completely disappearing
weeks. But I think this offense is a
good set up for someone like Thomas if it clicks.
Yeah, and I think he gives you access to 1/2 PPR single, single
week ceiling that does dry up after him.
So yeah, I I I like him a lot in the in the middle of the 6th
that that's kind of where he's going on the big board.
He goes in the mid first round with a, you know, really strong
quarterback and an overall really good landing spot I think
and his price isn't going to rise.
That sounds awesome to me. Yeah, I will feel better if the
Jags just just cut Zay Jones to avoid like some annoying
rotation to start the year. But ultimately that doesn't
matter for the play offs even if say, Jones is still there.
Let's talk worthy. We we touched on a little bit.
He's gonna come up a lot. I get obviously have the Chiefs
as one of the best landing spots for a rookie wide receiver.
Curious what you think, Pat. Where do you have him ranked and
where do you think he ends up settling in terms of ADP?
So I got worthy today. I think I picked 78 or 79 and
the way the leg up ranks work is that that's kind of what we're
trying to help you. Dewey comes out in the rankings
at pick 70, but as he moves up, I think he eventually goes into
the the early fifth round and that's where we'll have him.
And maybe he goes even higher than that depending on on how
many drafts Davis does. But.
That's where I took him. In the first draft I did today,
I only did one guess where I took him. 4th. 59.
I made myself wait. I I said Davis, I said you can
take him in the 4th, but you're really just going to hate that
when you look back at it later. Just wait.
I so I waited to the 6th to take him.
All right, There you go. There you go.
Yeah, that's what we're. But I I mean, I don't think
you're going to have him in the 6th.
I had a, so I did Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas, and then
Evan Ingram was available to me at pick 78, and I and I took
worthy. Actually, he may have gone one
pick before, so I didn't have this choice, but let's pretend I
had the choice. I still would have taken Worthy
because that combo is not gonna be available later and I so I I
think he's a big priority today. Big priority.
Yeah, I agree the initial rank is way too low.
Yeah, I don't know. I I'm definitely not a hater at
his ADP of 94. But isn't there a certain point
where, like like, is he gonna be better than Travis Kelsey and
Rashi Rice as a rookie? Like that seems impossible.
He he very well might. I mean, he will not get as many
targets as Travis Kelsey. He could very easily out produce
Rashi Rice on fewer targets and fewer receptions based on where
they run their routes. But most importantly for this
game think the Chiefs are I think we honestly might see the
Chiefs not play anything like they did last year.
I I'm getting the vibe that they realized they flew too close to
the sun with that group of wide receivers they had last year and
it's like we we got to be scoring points we we can't be
winning you know trying to count on the defense but obviously the
most important thing is if Worthy is as good of a prospect
as he should have been drafted 27th overall the last the last
guy that Andy Reid selected in the first round at wide receiver
was Jeremy Macklin who already had an entire career Eagles,
Chiefs, Ravens, retired. He's already gone.
It's it's already over. It was 14 years ago.
I mean, he's gonna have the highest single game searing of
any eligible Chiefs wide receiver in in Week 17.
Yeah, and I would. I would say with an offense like
this, I guess I'm not too hung up on drafting the weapons
exactly efficiently. Like Rice should go ahead of
Xavier Worthy. I think he was good as a rookie,
right? Worst prospect, but good draft
capital, then really good as a rookie.
The suspension is probably going to be like one to two games.
So I I would take Rice a little ahead of Worthy.
However, we know that's not how it's going to work.
The suspension, once he gets suspended, he's going to drop.
People are already freaking out about and he's already dropping.
Worthy's going to come rocketing up.
Worthy's going to go ahead of Rice.
Do I want to fight that and end up with a huge bag of Rice and
Noteworthy or do I want to get both of them and stack them with
Patrick Holmes And I just. I feel like I I'm not drafting
against eleven other me's. I'm drafting against everybody
else. Why don't I just get on board
with Worthy who I want, take him, get Rice once he continues
to fall which he will have a overweight position on him
without even trying. Take Kelsey in the 4th, which is
ridiculous and and I don't really understand, but I'm gonna
keep doing that. So you know it's like there's I
I think the best way to play it is make sure you have pieces of
this Chiefs offense. I agree with Davis.
I mean, even last year they still didn't move away from the
password over expected stuff. They were still passing more
than really any team should have with those wide receivers.
Like Andy Reid has not retired. It's still an Andy Reid offense.
And it was, it was all real close to the line of scrimmage,
right. So like I think that is the the
the big variable that we will see change.
Yeah it's just weird Like I'm trying to figure out is a is a
three wide receiver set of Marquis Brown, Xavier Worley and
Rashi Rice. Like that's obviously where it
how it's going to go by ADP here but the the Chiefs have always
valued having some like bigger X wide receiver on the.
Field That's why people. That's why I was saying I didn't
think they would sign Hollywood, 'cause they do value the
DeMarcus Robinson, Justin Watson, MVS type, Which I mean,
might might happen, you know, very well.
I mean it also, But Rushy Rice is also a big dude, right?
I mean, they they he played. Outside in college.
Like maybe he he's. Outside a little more if he's.
Playing outside, that would be so bad for him though, because I
don't think, I mean, he couldn't win outside in college.
I don't. You can still run slants.
You can still run slants from the outside.
Yeah, my my point is just like, how stubborn are they going to
be about keeping some big like Justin Watson in a 50% route
participation role? I know it's like no one wants to
talk about this, but couldn't you to see them being stubborn
about keeping that big wide receiver body on the field?
That's probably more bad for Marquis Brown than it is.
It's more bad for Mark. That's what that it goes
through. Brown.
Brown has not been good for like a while.
And who's who's the most likely these guys to be?
You know, like MVS was not playing what, what was his route
participation like 6572% or whatever most games like that's
probably the role that Brown is in.
I think Brown took a big hit from from this draft pick and
yeah, there's probably some Justin Watson routes still with
with Marquis Brown rotating out, but you know, that's fine.
Yeah, let's talk Ricky Pearsall here.
This is maybe the the most interesting one to me at least.
The most surprising that San Francisco spent a first round
pick on a wide receiver and also a fourth round pick in Jacob
Cohen that we can maybe get to later.
I think everyone when this happened there was so much rumor
about Debo or IU getting traded on day two.
Maybe the Bills or Patriots would send their early second
round picks for one of those guys that didn't happen.
I mean, my prediction now is that I think they're punting
this Debo IU decision to 2025. I think odds of a trade now seem
pretty low. I guess we can start with that.
Like, do you guys agree with me that this is how the roster at
wide receiver is gonna be set for the season?
Or do you think there's still a move here?
No, I don't. I don't.
I don't think it's set at all. I mean, they could get it.
They could just say you want a 2020, you want to give us 2025
first and a 2025 third for Devo take em.
Sure. But who does?
You know, I think it probably takes an injury to, you know,
and there's only. Patriots.
Definitely Steelers. But why wouldn't you have
already done that and now the Patriots spent, you know, 2
picks on a wide receiver and. It just seems if a trade was
gonna happen, like the Patriots have the perfect set up.
They had pick 34. Like that is a huge piece for
the 49ers. And I don't know for the if I'm
the 49ers, I'm like, I want an asset that could have helped me,
like we're in a Super Bowl window now.
I don't know if they really want to trade like for future assets
as opposed. To This pick is not really that
different than the Michael Pennix pick.
It's just being like we got these guys on the team.
We don't know how much longer they're going to be there.
What do you what do you say this?
It's the 31st pick. They take the receiver.
They're going to move on from one of these guys after the
season, this is. I'm saying I'm saying the I'm
saying what the logic. I'm saying the logic is all
forward facing and has little to do with the actual roster right
now. Like if it works out great and
and Ricky Pearsall can be the third wide receiver instead of
Juan Jennings. Awesome perfect.
He's at his schedule. That's great, but it's more
about having the answer on the roster if Debo the.
Equivalent of making this the Michael Pennix pick would be
trading the 31st pick for a 2027 first round pick.
That would be the Michael Pennix.
Trade. You know, it would have been so
funny if the 49ers just traded up for a quarterback again this
year. That would have.
That would have been incredible. But yeah, back to Piersol.
Like, just go with me on this hypothetical that the 49ers
aren't gonna make another trade. If we can assign like some level
of certainty to that, I think this is like the worst landing
spot. Yeah, I mean, I'll just, I'll
just have literally zero of him. Because, yeah, it's obviously
like the once you factor in how many targets McCaffrey gets, her
running back and how many targets Kittle gets for a tight
end. And I'm pretty sure McCaffrey
and George Kittle are better than Ricky Pearsall.
Like, there's nothing left here. And then and then Juwan
Jennings, they gave him like a second round tender, like they
they value him highly. He had a featured role in the
Super Bowl. Like I don't think it's a piece
of, you know, an easy path to playing time above him, even for
a, you know, a late first round rookie.
So I don't know, I heard people hyping up this landing spot.
I think for for 2024 it's like really, really bad.
Guys it is. It is April.
We're we're gonna we're gonna go with the there's gonna be a
whole summer there's gonna be a whole fall.
There's gonna be a presidential election.
There's a shit load of things that are gonna happen between
now and when week 17 happens. I I just if Pierce Hall's not
gonna be expensive, which he isn't at all, then I think we
want we want the first round wide receiver that the 49ers
just took in the rounds. We want that guy.
I'm not saying load up, but like if you're if you're just blindly
fading this dude because he's not gonna have the the the
target share that you can project right away.
Like of course he's not. Of course he he just won't.
But like chaos fucking chaos. And he's a first round pick.
I think he's pretty, pretty interesting.
Like he's not a perfect prospect by any means, but he does some
things well. He can get open in the
intermediate areas, basically his calling card that sounds
pretty great, and a Shanahan offense.
There is still potential for them to trade a receiver.
If they trade a receiver what he's like a seventh round pick
right then, maybe even higher if one of these guys gets.
Hurt. What about the fact that I have?
The shit out of him in DFS. What about the fact that I am
just not that sure that he's that good?
Well, sure, yeah. I mean, he's not a perfect
prospect, that's that's true. But I mean like how sure were
you that Debo was good? How sure were you that?
I I liked Debo and I 'cause I think was a crazy kick returner.
I I did. I mean, I liked, but I liked
both of them. But yeah, I mean, obviously I'm
not going to have 100% hit rate on these guys, but like, I'm
also not going to take any Xavier Leggett, You know, she's
not really that interested. But they're going, they're going
next to each other. We just on Peach Stream, we had
that choice and I I said let's take Piersall because on that
team we have 5 wide receivers already.
So it's like we're really just playing for the playoffs anyway.
And you know, like, at what point are we jamming Xavier
Leggett and DFS? That's a hard thing for me to
imagine. It is not.
Hard. What?
What would it take for us to jam Ricky Pearsall?
We all know. We all know when we can see
ourselves doing it and we can see.
He's, he's he's 40. He's $4100.
Brandon Iuke's not playing. Juwan Jennings has the stomach
flu. Bang.
Let me be clear that the ADP of
150, like my my anti Pierce all stance was assuming that that's
that's not a real ADP obviously ADP of 150.
I'm not saying that's bad. We got him in the 12th today,
that's. Yeah, that that's pretty clearly
good for me too. I'm just saying, I assume I just
see first round wide receiver. I assume the market is gonna
eventually price them at like 95100 that's on like the lower
end. I don't know.
I I think there's gonna be some of that that like what?
What am I? Am I just drafting a zero that
he's not a fun clique? He definitely has just such high
odds of being a zero, though, 'cause I I get your scenario
that like, OK, one of Debo or IU gets hurt, but OK, there's still
like three players in the offense in that scenario that
are all way better than him, right?
Like. This is a this is an offense
that game plan specifically for opponents and they they just
took this guy in the first round like.
Yeah, I just, I'm skeptical of the Ricky Pearsall game plan
when you have Brandon IU, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey.
Like I I need to see that one a little bit before.
I You might see it. You might see it buddy.
We'll see. I I might have to get ready to
learn. Ricky Pearsall, buddy.
I don't. I don't think so.
I really don't think I'm gonna have to learn Ricky Pearsall
'cause like Sam said, even one injury, I don't know where that
gets him, 'cause he might not be good.
Yeah, he he might. He just might.
Not be good. You're right.
He might not be this. Could be Joe Williams, you know.
Here's the thing A. 100% San Francisco's like the most
efficient offense in the NFL. You like, you look at the
spreadsheets and it like breaks your brain on like what volume
they project at, how many touchdowns they project at like.
It's kind of low volume, hyper efficiency, I would attribute.
I'm a Brock Purdy guy. I'm still attributing that hyper
efficiency to the skill players, then the scheme, and then then
Brock Purdy I guess. Sorry, that was a confusing way
of saying it. But I think the efficiency has
more to do with like Debo IU Kittle McCaffrey just being
badasses than like there being some inherent efficiency in the
system. Maybe that's a bad take, but.
I think it's a semi bad take cause Garoppolo was awesome in
this scheme too. It's it this but with good.
Skill guys, right? With really good skill.
Guys, yeah, but. Like this, this, this.
The system didn't prop up like Dante Pettis, is what I'm
saying. Well, kind of did for.
That kind of season. Yeah, you're right.
Kind of did. He had.
Like 600 that. One, Yeah.
So it doesn't take a ton. Like I just yeah, it's I
understand when I'm taking pure saw that there's a low
probability that it that he adds anything to my team at all.
But it's just like when he adds something he adds a lot, you
know? And if that's in the double
digit rounds, I think it's it's OK.
And if it's in the single digit rounds, then I'm far less
interested because the running back, basically how how much
opportunity cost is it at running back?
And if it's not that much where I normally need running backs,
right. If it's not that much, then why
not take take Why not take your 15th round pick in the 12th
round, or your 16th round, pick in the 12th round.
That's what you're doing. Normally you take a guy, you
just need one spike week from in week 15 or whatever in the
151617, the 18th, but you're doing it in the 12th.
With Piersall, I think you can survive that.
I think you can build around that.
Understand that that's what you're doing though.
Xavier Leggett. We touched on him a little bit.
He snuck into the back half. The not the back half.
The very last pick of the first round pick, 32 to the Panthers.
I saw this Panthers landing spot as being pretty bad.
It's semi crowded with Deante Johnson.
Adam Thielen has kind of proven target earners there, but
there's obviously room if Leggett's good.
Mingo's still there. Mingo's still there.
Now Mingo Mingo's in the UFL already, let's be honest.
Xavier Leggett and Jonathan Mingo are Spider Man pointing
Meme dude. You you just you just talked
about this like narrative pattern matching being the
reason that we faded Rasheed Rice last year.
I I want to push back on like the Leggett is Mingo thing a
little bit because we're just not very good at at predicting
these guys and Leggette's profile has obvious obvious
holes. But you look at JJ, Zach
Reason's like prospect model and he has Leggette in the same tier
as Piersall Keon Coleman Lad, Mcconkey they're all
statistically all these guys have big flaws.
I don't think like again not talking about situation those
guys have way better situations or a lot of them do.
I'm not ready to to write off Leggette, but I don't know you
guys just calling him Mingo and and turning off.
He is tough to draft. He is difficult to draft.
I have to say I don't want to be out on leggette.
I don't want to not open my third eye on on his amazing
athleticism and you know on a team that's pretty desperate for
someone to step up. Deante Johnson's pretty limited
kind of just the the underneath target stuff.
Adam Thielen like if he's awesome he's not gonna have
trouble establishing himself. But I I I'm gonna admit I have
tough a tough time clicking him on the Panthers.
It's just not that exciting. But we've got him ranked well
ahead of ADP 134 ZDP of like 150.
I I think it's, I think it makes sense to get exposure to a first
round pick. You know who's got not that
strong a target competition, not, you know, certainly not
overwhelming target competition that again you're getting very
late. I I would view him as sort of
the opposite of the Pearsall thing.
We're like on that team with Pete we have 5 wide receivers
and we're like just tacking on that that late round, that
premium late round guy basically with Leggette it's more like I
kind of got locked out. I'm, I don't have upside of like
a kind of a week in, week out starter.
For me that's going to be like a like a true kind of redraft hit
leggette could be that. So that's be more in that
situation where I would I would be going there I think.
Davis, where, what? Where would you take leggette?
Like what? What does ADP have to be for you
to be on? I mean, here's the thing,
nowhere close to where he's going right now.
Like, I just he just doesn't fit in my plans.
I'm not buying a Bryce Young resurgence.
I'm not really hoping to draft players on shitty teams that I
don't expect to score that many points.
I don't think he's got the feeling thing where he could
just go earn 13 targets in a game.
That wasn't even really what he did at South Carolina.
It was he got a big upgrade and look, I know there are a lot of
reasons why his his prospect profile might be wrong, right?
COVID? His parents died, he had to
transfer. Like it's like he's got a crazy
story. I'm rooting for him as a human
being, and I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not into drafting him for
fantasy football right now. Like at all?
I get that. And yeah, everyone should look
into Xavier Leggett's interviews and his like personal story
'cause it really is inspiring and he's he's one of the
funniest interviews I've. Heard.
Well, it's it's also illuminating.
It it is illuminating to why, if we want to go back and do the
the post mortem analysis of how did Xavier Leggett not break out
till he was 23, how did he go the 1st?
And you're like, oh actually kind of makes sense a little
bit. The other thing about Leggett,
kind of to that story, is that he apparently practices hard as
fuck and never misses practice. So he is the guy like new
coaching staff coming in trying to change the tone.
Like he could just be a guy that's like this is our dude.
Like we found him, you know, there's that possibility.
So I would, I would say mixing him in it makes sense.
Again, I don't I don't find it any more fun than Davis does.
But if, like we're getting Bryce Young number one pick with the
quarterback guru guy coming in, if he's if leggette is good,
then that could help. Get is going to be the Mike
Evans and the Canales offense, brother.
Get on board our get ran over. I mean basically 0% chance, but
you're giving me the 12th £12 bet, added I.
I take a little. Dave, Dave Canalis, Dave Canalis
in back-to-back years has, you know, turned Geno Smith into a
guy who was getting drafted after Drew Locke to being like
kind of a consensus top half quarterback in the NFL.
He also got Baker Mayfield paid what like 50 million plus
guaranteed. So I do kind of believe in in
the Canal stuff a little bit. I obviously don't think Legette
is Mike Evans, but I don't think the odds of Bryce Young having a
bit of a comeback in a second year completely 0.
There weren't a lot of Bryce Young Bears last year, myself
included, right. They're like this guy basically
was Danny Carter, who's like this dude's too small, you know?
And he was, he was probably right.
Maybe. He's certainly.
Right. But like oh, I think a lot of us
were like this. He makes plays.
I understand some of the concerns but like I yeah, kind
of I'm kind of in. He had a horrible rookie season.
He probably is a a bust but like there's I still think there's at
least some chance that that he turns it around with a new
coaching staff and a a pretty smart coach.
I think, yeah. We saw with Trevor Lawrence it
could happen with Bryce Young, Keon Coleman.
This is one that I think that the market's gonna be consensus
pretty high on Bills in my opinion.
Along with the, you know, Chargers, Cardinals.
You can throw the Chiefs in there too.
Pretty clearly one of the best landing spots for a wide
receiver this year. Coleman was nearly got that
first round. Draft capital.
The Bills traded back a couple times, still got on with the
first pick in the second round. Start with you, Pat.
I I know you weren't the biggest fan of Coleman's prospect
production profile, but where are you at on him now?
Where do you think his ADP will settle?
Yeah, I'm at. I'm in.
I mean, he's on the Bills guys, they, they, they need.
They need. You really are going to start
with Pat's opinion instead of saying that I've been telling
you all this was going to happen for four.
Months. That's true.
Yeah. Let's throw it at Davis.
Davis. Literally called this for
months. I called this because I was
worried that this was going to force me into evaluating world
where Keon Coleman might see 130 targets, like if Keon Coleman
was the was the Panthers pick. I'm like, well, I just, I buddy,
I don't have to learn Keon Coleman.
It will not be necessary for me to acquire that language.
But I mean, we, and we've all been arguing about this via DM
all week too. I mean, I just have a hard sense
have a hard time gaining a sense of what the bill's plan is here.
I suppose it is. Samuel is the slot wide
receiver, Shakur is the other outside wide receiver, and then
Keon is the primary X wide receiver.
They kind. Of hasted that that's the plan.
In the initial interview they said we got to see what he's
what he can learn. Can he learn X?
Can he learn the other positions?
I think they're gonna X is the first thing they're gonna try to
get him to do. But I want to hear a big slot.
I want to hear a big slot with. No, that's The thing is, that's
The thing is, if he's a big slot, then Dunn, Kincaid and and
Keon Coleman have they've murdered each other, they Spider
man pointed at each other with a gun and they just they just
wiped out each other's ceilings, right?
That doesn't work. No, we saw, I guess, as a cop
like Rasheed Rice and Travis Kelsey.
He's not, really. Rice he's yeah.
But but Rice wasn't really Rice in his, in his prospect profile,
that's what I'm saying is that I I think Keon Coleman, you look
at his, I think the reason his film is bad is 'cause he's
actually not that good at being. His.
Film is not that bad. Because yeah.
I could think of one reason, just came to mind.
Here's the thing, though. He has this it factor when he
has the ball in his hands. He's a really good punt
returner. He clearly has something that
the NFL values like he was. Consensus Top 40.
Yeah, like I I want to see him in something comparable to the
Rashid Rice role. We didn't see Rashid Rice in the
Rashid Rice role in college, right.
Like, that's the point I'm getting at is I think if they
just line him up as the Gabe Davis and say, hey, you're big,
you're fast, go do Gabe Davis stuff that that might be.
It even is the Rashid rice roll isn't it?
Like him finding soft spots in the zone.
Like he Rice got a lot of his targets on on non first reads
like he was Rice's goose in the. Zone, yeah.
Yeah. Is Coleman good at that?
Like, I don't think he is. I think he's basically like,
he's more of, he's more of a Kadarius Tony than a Rashid
Rice. He's Kadarius Tony who doesn't
get. I don't.
Know he, he, his, I I'd have to pull up Matt Arman's stuff.
I do think his prospect profile on him was pretty bad all
around. What was the lone bright spot
was his success rate verse zone, if I recall that.
Correctly. All right.
Well, that would. At least I remember.
In J spot. Good.
Let's see, I just pulled it. Success rate verse zone was
pretty, you know he's 59th percentile there.
He's 20th percentile against man.
Yeah and again these percentile, these percentiles are like of
all round one through 3 prospects.
So like 60th percentile sounds like kind of bad, but then you
consider the sample size he's charting it.
It's fine anyways, that two in the weeds.
He said he sowed a great understanding of working himself
open against zone on in, breaking routes like the post,
dig and slant. All of these are critical outs,
critical routes for a receiver operating on the inside.
So he likes your your you guys are on the same page.
Yeah. No, I.
Definitely didn't just totally like steal the take from him or
anything like. Yeah, it's almost like Carmen
came up with the take and you're repeating it, Hayden.
Hayden Hayden embedded the term power slot for Keon Coleman and
I'm like this is the deal if your wide receiver can really
only succeed in the slot, like if your best wide receiver is
doing 111% of Curtis Samuel, I don't know how into it I am.
Well, the thing I mean. He's fine.
The thing is, like we have this new archetype though, of wide
receiver in the NFLI think a Monroe fits into it, Rashi Rice
fits into it. Cooper Cup at his at his peak,
fit into it. Like that's how they were.
Fantasy superstars was like getting in the zone, sitting
down, you know, getting in the slot, sitting down in the soft
sparks of the zone and just becoming PPR scams.
And you obviously have to squint to get there with Coleman.
I get that it's a leap, but I mean, man, what are the?
Comparable to, like Amanora at all.
Like Amanora gets open against against man covers, like he
beats people with route running. Coleman is much more of like a
raw, athletic get the ball in his hands, let him run.
It's like more like Coral Patterson.
Or, you know, like it is more like Tony.
You piqued my interest. Oh, I did.
I did want to say this about Leggette before.
I forget if when your coach comes to the podium to talk
about the pick, the first thing he mentions is using you out of
the backfield. It's over.
It's not happening for you. If it's the very first thing he
says, it's Jover. Can't, can't, can't be there.
It's true, yeah. I'm I'm.
I don't know. I guess I'm struggling a little
bit with. I guess I'm I'm yeah I'm
painting like a really high ceiling case which I don't I
don't believe so I I get that like yeah you're pushing back.
Well, the really, Ideally not in.
Is real because he's a bill. He's a bill.
Yeah, he's a bill. Yeah.
I I don't believe in the. I don't believe in the bat but I
think I'll make the bet at a fairly decent rate because he's
on the builds. Like it's just it's so easy to
see how he has the single week ceiling.
He was he got draft capital he's an early declare who got drafted
high. He's athletic enough.
I mean he didn't have the 40, but like he's explosive, right?
We the football athleticism in terms of like him getting up
field once he catches the ball is I feel pretty good about and
you know, maybe they're really committed to the bit in terms of
getting him some design touches and stuff Like Coleman could
bust and still pay off like an eighth round ADP.
You know, I mean like long term we could view this pick as a
complete failure, but he could pretty easily pay off that ADP,
so. Cadarius Dhoni.
Kelvin Benjamin. Kelvin.
Oh my God. Yeah, extreme Benjamin vibes.
It's kind of like that. Like I they're not.
They're different players, but like that, you know, you get a
guy with they desperate for wide receipt, they feed him targets
for a year. Everyone agrees they shouldn't
do it again, but they did. So you you you get those points.
Last thing I'll say on Coleman, I mean the guy, I know there's
like reasons for it. He was banged up, blah blah,
blah blah. He found a way to out produce
Jaden Reed when they're on the same team and he was a sophomore
in college and Jayden Reid is now a fifth round pick in
fantasy. Like there's a model is gonna
have a hard time factoring that in.
But I do put some signal on that like Jayden Reid and him are on
the same field and theon Coleman slightly edged him out.
Like there's there's something to that in my opinion.
So I could definitely be wrong about him as a prospect and he's
just in a situation and it's the archetype of prospect.
Like he's very strong after the catch and you know can make big
plays that they're 4. It's just gonna, if you could
really suck to be wrong about Keon Coleman, like he could he
could kind of bury you a little bit as long as his price doesn't
run away from us completely. And I don't think it.
I don't think it will. Like I think he goes behind the
lad and Brian Thomas and those guys.
Yeah, Davis, are you? Do you have to jump now or are
you? I'm gonna.
I'm gonna jump. I'll be back in like 13 minutes.
Everyone, get used to it. Yeah.
So we have a new segment to debut once Davis leaves here.
The segment is called Sorry, Two Stats and a Lie.
And before I get there, I'm gonna give Crane.
Yeah, every week Davis is gonna leave to do something and it's
just gonna be. Amazing.
I think he's talking about fantasy baseball or something or
something like that. I'm gonna give Crane 3 stats
that are all usually all gonna be about like one team or a
player and needs to have to figure out which of the three
stats is a lie. So we were talking about the
Bills. This is a good transition.
This is 2 stats and a lie. Dalton Kincaid edition.
So first out here Pat in .5 PPR points per game.
Dawson Knox in each of 2021 and 2022 outscored Dalton Kincaid in
2023 Fact 2. Dalton Kincaid had a lower yards
per outrun than teammates Khalil Shakur, Ty Johnson, Deontay
Hardy and James Cook in 2023 and then Fact three including
regular season and playoffs. Dalton Kincaid is one of four
rookie tight ends in the last decade to run more than 500
routes in a season. Which of these is the lie?
I think, I think it's the Dawson knocks.
Oh God 'cause you know what? No, it's the yards per out run.
I think the I think he had slightly better yards per out
run than at least one of these guys.
Yeah, you're you're smart guy. That is.
That is the lie He did So Shakur and Ty Johnson.
Ty Johnson ran like 20 routes. I just threw that in there for
fun. They both had higher yards per
out run the Kincaid. He did barely edge out Hardy and
Cook though. So you identified that Knox did
very slightly. These these are all pretty close
knocks, very slightly built. Beat out Kincaid and PPR points
for game sorry half PPR points for game 21 and 22 and then yeah
Kincaid had a historically high number of routes.
So the the point of these stats, they always kind of have to have
some kind of theme to them is that Dalton Kincaid, his like
historic rookie tight end season last year was 1 driven by route
volume and not necessarily efficiency.
I think there's a lot of interpretations of what that
means for next year, but I think it's an important thing to
consider. Pat, yeah, how'd you know that
was the lie? And any any thoughts on?
I'm pretty sure that James Cook did not have that high of a
yards per route run because I I really like James Cook.
But it's not. I don't think he's he's not like
an ultra, ultra elite receiver. He's just kind of explosive as a
receiver and that's a very high yards per out run for a running
back. And I knew, 'cause we had been
argumenting, Kate, I knew he had like a 1.5 ish yards per out
run. That was in my head.
So I I knew basically I I knew that one of these guys probably
had below 1.5 yards per out run and most likely Cook.
I also figured Dawson Knox. They almost went there, but I
figured Dawson Knox as a veteran probably outscored a rookie
tight end and half point PPR points per game over a whole
season. Yeah, I think it was driven by
touchdowns. I didn't really look into it,
but I'm sure he just like had way more touchdowns.
I mean it was it's Dawson Knox so it's safe bet it was driven
by touchdown. I and I generally think like we
my philosophy on tight ends you know young tight ends is
generally been a bet on the bet on the efficiency and that
that's how you find the guys who are sort of playing a different
position than everyone else and then hope they run more routes
and that's how you get you land on the type of Marc Andrews big
hits. I do.
I'm more open minded than Kincaid, but just again, you're
on the Bills. We just said a bunch of stuff
about Coleman, how I don't really believe in him.
Someone's going to the Bills aren't just going to like not
pass for you know, not they're going to be productive through
the air this year. And I want, and I honestly like
if if Keon Coleman ends up in like the late 7th round or the
eighth round, Dalton Kincaid ends up in like the 5th, 6th and
Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakur are like toward the back end of
the top 100. Is anyone egregiously overpriced
at all. They're all kind of like
discounted they're all they're all pretty appealing at those
prices. So just like making sure you
take some Allen and then stack up whoever kind of falls to you
at good prices after that, that seems like an easy enough build.
Yeah, no, I think that's fair. Sorry, not I I gotta stop saying
that's fair. I agree with what you said in a
non derogatory way. That is longer to say.
I mean that's fair is much? Much easier, much easier.
Kincaid. For me, I think where I struggle
is solely because of where he goes next to.
You know, he's very close to Marc Andrews.
You can wait right now at least you can wait 10 picks and get
George Kittle. And back to your point about
like the elite tight end profile that I like betting on is the
guys that have the insane efficiency.
And I'm pretty confident. I mean, you can talk age cliffs,
I guess with those guys. I'm pretty confident I'm getting
that efficiency in really good offenses in Baltimore and San
Francisco. So I'll I'll have trouble I
think clicking Kincaid when those guys are going there.
But he's not like a full fade for me by any means.
And I agree with you that somebody in the spills offense
has to be good. I'm not a Josh Allen denier.
I don't think like Stefan Diggs was the only reason Josh Allen
was good. So I do see myself having pretty
high exposure to actually James Cook at running back to Leon
Coleman, even even Shakur. Like as long as Shakur doesn't
rise too much, I don't think he's gonna he he's kind of, to
me a kind of sneaky high upside pick.
If we get kind of the more retro third year breakout out of him
potentially. It's not impossible.
So yeah. You know who I would maybe
compare him a little bit to? And not not this year so much
because because of injury issues, but TJ Hawkinson is a
little bit similar. Where like, you look at
Hawkinson's career, yeah. That's true. 1.28 yards per out
run. 1.571.481.73 and he was 1.89 last year but that 1.89 was
enough because he was you know, part of this, obviously it's
hurt, but like he was, he was a good pick, you know?
And if what does, what does Kincaid need to hit in terms of
efficiency to pay off this season because he's on the
Bills. I think it's like that 1.73
where most tight ends, because they don't run as many routes as
wide receivers, they're not on the bills.
They need to hit you know over 2 yards per out run to really get
there for you. At this price he he probably
just needs to be in that like 1.7 kind of Hawkinsoni type of
range I think. That makes sense.
Cool. So we'll yeah that we'll do it
for two stats and a lie going forward.
If anybody has suggestions for these, I'll open up.
I just created a new Gmail. It's just adpchasing@gmail.com.
If anyone wants to come up with these on their own, feel free to
submit them. Otherwise I'm just gonna.
I'm just gonna FUD the exciting young players.
Showed up for the Kincaid wasn't watching before he's streaming.
He shut down his stream for the Kincaid bit.
Oh, that's priceless. But yeah, if you want to submit
these and otherwise, you know, you know, the next one's going
to be about Jackson Smith and Jake BA.
After that, it's going to be about Roma Deunze.
So I. Can't wait.
Feel free to submit them. I can't wait for the for the
gross. Please with Jason, just make all
three stats as gross as possible.
I I thought about today, there's definitely going to be like a
Jake Bobo one in. There.
Oh yes, yes, it's gonna. Get really ugly.
We'll continue with normal ADP chasing.
I think Davis should be back soon, Lad, lad.
Mcconkey. Another awesome landing spot
here, I guess. Yeah.
What are your thoughts? Like we just talked about
Coleman. How do you compare him with
Mcconkey? They seem like kind of similar
bets to me. How are you?
How are you thinking about those two guys?
I do feel more confident in lad Mcconkey doing well in the NFL
than I do Coleman. Like with Coleman, you're like
you kind of. I felt like you're sort of
talking yourself in circles. You're like, well, it could hit
this way. But I also don't think he will.
You know, with Ladd, it's like he gets open, he can play on the
outside. He's not exclusively a slot.
He probably works into the slot some.
He's he's very athletic. His yards per route run was
awesome. He didn't run a ton of routes.
So that's like, well, that's weird, but there's no, not even
tar competition. But there's like barely route
competition here. Like who are they?
Literally like who is available to run routes if not LAD
Mcconkey, like he should have no trouble at all.
I mean rookie wide receivers sometimes come on more slowly
than we expect. But by week eight, week 9, like
LAD Mcconkey's gonna gonna have the route participation we want
I think. And there's just nobody else.
So I I just feel more way more comfy.
He's just such a a comfier clip to me than Keon Coleman.
I've got him at 93 right now in the ranks, but he's gonna rock
it up boards and we've got him at 68 in the pure rank.
I think that's probably where he settles or maybe even behind
where he settles. You could maybe talk me into
raising him up until like the early 6th if that happens.
Yeah, I like that. I like being aggressive on him.
I agree with you. I think if we're talking like
absolute pure ceiling, just Keon Coleman's body type and the fact
that he's on an offense in the Bills, that is probably likely
to throw a lot more than the Chargers.
I'd say like pure absolute ceiling.
Give it to Coleman but like ability of hitting like a
realistic ceiling. I I think I'm with you on
Mcconkey and yeah, target competition is so bad.
I do think you know Harbaugh's bringing this run based
philosophy to the Chargers. I don't deny that.
But when you have Justin Herbert, I do think there's some
baseline level of pass attempts. I mean, maybe I'll be wrong here
and Arbaugh's gonna go full boomer and they'll be bottom 5
in pass attempts. But I think it's more likely to
be like Purdy Esque level of pass attempts where maybe
they're 15th to the 20th in the NFL and pass attempts not like
close to the very bottom. I mean, you have Justin Herbert
after all, so I just. Think there's like, even if it
is, I think he can get there to, to a degree, right.
Like what? What are we asking for, you
know? But if you're like, man, I I
need a wide receiver three in the sixth round.
Give me Lad Mcconkey, like, that's that seems pretty good.
Maybe he doesn't have like the highest, highest ceiling, 'cause
I agree with you that they're not gonna throw a ton, but like
there's no, they don't have a tight end.
They just traded away their pass catching running back or let him
walk and brought in Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins coming off an
Achilles tear and you know a 6th rounder.
Like there's nobody, there's nobody.
Quinton Johnston is gonna have a meaningful role in this offense
Like they he has the IT could all funnel through Ladd
Mcconkey, especially down the second-half of the season.
Like he could just, I mean, he could have like a 28% target
share without like even being amazing.
That's why it drives me crazy when like, I think there's some,
like, extremist elements of fantasy football discourse that
will say, like target competition doesn't.
Matter. No.
You'll get on Twitter and people will say target competition
doesn't matter. Like vacated targets don't
exist, buddy. Get ready to learn vacated
targets with Vlad Bakoppi Conky on the Chargers.
Like they're gonna exist. Like, like, I don't know what to
tell you, but like, who's who's there?
Like what? What is the offense's plan if
it's not scheming up Ladd mcconkey like?
Sam does have the lighting of someone who's written a
manifesto. I'm just saying that.
No, I'm anti the extremist elements.
Not, I'm not. I'm not amongst them.
Let me be clear. Well, if you're anti enough, you
need some extreme in your own right.
What is the highest you can see yourself taking Ladd Mcconkey in
a fantasy football draft? Well, Pat just said on his pure
ranks, he's at, what, pick 65 or something?
Yeah, I I also have him in the 60s.
You could you could you could force me into take him in the
50s? I mean, I say this because I can
only think in terms of JSN, but what's the point of taking JSN
over lab mcconkey? I mean, I I don't play.
Yeah. My ADP, he's like 30.
I know, but that's. Gonna it's gonna change quickly
like probably tomorrow it'll change like I think he, I think
he flips him no problem. Yeah, I I hope we're dealing
with rational drafters, but I don't know.
It's it's like Jordan Addison, Brian Thomas.
You know, I think that's kind of where you maybe even Jaden Reid
like that's sort of the. Argument Jordan Addison learned,
getting drafted behind Lad Mcconkey brother.
Yeah, yeah. Did not, did not have Showing up
as a Lad Mcconkey bowl on my bingo card.
But I mean, come on, dude. Rome, A doomsday or Lad
Mcconkey. Rome.
But it's closer than you'd think.
I don't even know if it will be closer than I think, 'cause I
think he flips him. What if?
What is? What is Roma Dunzay project for
in week 17 of Keenan? Allen is not active and the
Bears have to win to win the division.
This is why I still have Rome ahead, but I'm the last things
I'm expecting myself to get passed by the market and then
have the tough conversation of, yeah, do we, do we move ahead of
Rome, Brian Thomas, you know, get him up ahead of some of
these tight ends and I think we do.
I think it happens. I mean this is just like these
like 3 days right now before the ADP starts to configure itself
is like the time to draft Ladd Mcconkey and like not draft AD
Mitchell. Right, exactly.
Yeah. Don't draft AD Mitchell right
now. Oh my God, Can you imagine in
freaking July how much 80 Mitchell I'm going to have,
though? Like when when 80 Mitchell gets
banished to the shadow realm like wide receiver 72, my drafts
are just going to come preloaded with him.
It's going to be amazing. Davis, I mean, the draft went
pretty well for you with the Chiefs grabbing a wide receiver
in the first round and everyone's excited.
But it is pretty funny that you were like leading the charge on
80 Mitchell over Xavier Worthy and I don't know if do you do
you still believe that? Or have the, I mean obviously no
but I I like it makes total sense.
I mean I mean it's just like so clear what the chiefs wanted out
of worthy like they just want to they want Tyreke again.
Let's like they remember when we had Tyreke.
Let's try and do that again. Let's try that, yeah.
And 80 Mitchell also makes perfect sense for the Colts,
right? Yeah, I mean, like, super
perfect. I also people hated on this pick
when it happened. But the Jalen Polk thing makes
sense. If if if the idea is he played
with these other two guys who are really good and he's
basically just like a really good slot wide receiver, like
he's like Kendrick Bourne plus or Demario Douglas plus or Juju
Smith Schuster plus. Maybe not what I would have
done, but like, I get it. You know what I mean?
Definitely not what I would have done.
It does remind me of like Polk is one of these guys.
I'm not a big Polk guy, so it's going to seem somewhat
derogatory, although it's not really.
But like, he kind of reminds me of like these these teams that
are sort of turning over and these dudes like emerge and they
are productive like a Cecil Schwartz and they have a couple
seasons. Oh.
My God. You know, he had like 900 yards
that one year randomly. That's who Jalen Polk is.
He's going to have like 900 yards and 600 yards.
Dee, Dee, Westbrook. Dee Westbrook No.
Dee Westbrook won a blitnikoff. Dee Westbrook would have been
good. They think there are career
paths where things would have worked out.
I was so I'm a Patriots Patriots fan.
I was pretty pissed. That took Poke over AD Mitchell.
Also, just with their makeup of their current wide receiver
room. Poke can like play flanker, but
he's he's not an X wide receiver Mitchell, I get that Mitchell
was super volatile, but I feel like if he hits like he is an
awesome X wide receiver, which is what the Patriots need.
So yeah, I don't know. I I feel lukewarm about it after
reflecting. Like you should.
You should feel lukewarm. You should feel it's a it's a
Luke, it's a lukewarm pick, but. Lukewarm pick.
I don't. Was another guy I wanted to
float as a as a randomly productive guy.
Don't you guys think that the way the market is going to treat
it is it's like the slot work is like Kendrick Bourne and Demario
Douglas and Jalen, it's like, but if Polk wins it.
But Polk can play on the outside, can he?
Yeah, isn't. He Milan the slot.
He was, yeah, yeah. So Polk was best in the slot
when McMillan was hurt. OK, he played flanker, so
outside, but off ball, I think most of the time something
interesting was yeah. Baker, Baker kind of profiles as
an ex. So the Patriots wide receiver
coach was the Washington coach. OK.
So, Jalen Polk. Time to learn nepotism, buddy.
Oh, the Washington, the. Washington Huskies coach.
Wait, that's what the Patriots wide receiver coach Oh wow.
That's what that is. What is the chat line?
We better get ready to learn nepotism.
Wait, so the Washington It must be the Washington wide receiver
coach, not the Washington head coach, right?
Because the Washington head coach would have got a better
upgrade. You got to look this up.
Yeah, Patriots wide receiver coach.
Tyler Paulino, 89, Can you can we get some, can we get an
update on this? I just, I just did a whole.
I just did a whole bit based on your comment and I need it.
I need it explained upon expanded upon.
His name is. Tyler is this Tyler Hughes?
Well, that's what the AI thing on Google thinks but the But
apparently it's not. Apparently it's brown.
Troy Brown No, OK. We can talk to our sources,
meaning grouch, and see if this is actually true.
No. No, this is this is legit Tyler.
What is Tyler Hughes? AI was.
Tyler Hughes LinkedIn Experience.
He was the assistant head coach at UW, OK and now is the wide
receiver's coach for the Patriots.
So correct This is correct. Yeah, I mean, I guess we're
we're hiring the quality control coach on offense to be the water
receiver. That makes sense, I guess.
All right. So I mean, yeah, that that was
my next point is that I think Polk is just like a full time
starter right away, which that that's why I had the Patriots as
a good landing spot for like a second and third round pick.
Obviously. Like the true ceiling upside
probably isn't there in Drake May in his first year.
Maybe. You could argue.
That's not true. This show presupposes, is that
it is this we we are presupposing that the Drake may
total smash may in fact happen. This is a Drake May show.
Yeah. Then I think you guys gotta be
on Jalen Polk, right? That's.
How I am on Jalen Polk. Yeah, I'm also on Baker as an
eighteenth round. Dart 2.
Me too, Baker. The problem is so I need you
guys to talk some sense into me on the Drake May side of this,
because if Drake May does not play for much of the season, he
is a horrendous best ball pick. However, I would really like it
if he did. I mean, that's Sam's territory.
I I haven't followed. I mean, what I really want,
Davis, is for you to make me feel good about what I'm going
to do. The, the.
The. Brig sets going to start four
games. It's going to start four games.
That's what people are saying. Just, yeah, if he sits more than
that, I think it would be dumb, like you just got to let him.
You got to let him see what he's got.
But. We've got him next to Will
Lavish, Gino Smith, Derek Carr. Are you taking him over those
guys? I probably am done at
quarterback by then. I I honestly, I just what I've
learned is that quarterback both does and does not matter where.
It's like the difference between tacking on 1/3 quarterback and
with Drake may adding how many points does that add for me over
the course of a year. So I I want a lot of.
What I want a lot of is I want a lot of elite quarterback plus
quarterback 19 builds. I I want a lot of Josh Allen or
maybe Jalen Hurts and Matt Stafford.
I want a lot of Kyler Murray and Jane Daniels.
I I don't know how much I want to dip my toes into the,
especially because I don't think I'm going to be in on Fields and
I'm just going to get dominated by the people who draft Fields.
If field starts like I just am going to be dead to them.
If Fields ends up starting by like Week 4, like it's just
going to be like great. I brought my Geo Smith Drake May
team to a Justin Fields fight and.
But to be clear, you're not drafting any Justin fields,
right? I'm just knocked at it because I
think the I have. Way too much brand equity
invested in fading Justin. Fields I just.
Even if I thought it was a good pick, I just.
I really want the outcomes where you get.
Some fields you pretty contingencies in place for when
you're wrong on fields that aren't just drafting some
fields. But I mean, what is, What is?
And also, here's the thing, So like, let's say Fields does even
get the job by like Week 5 or whatever.
I mean, who's to say that we don't end up with Mason Rudolph
back in our lives by week 11? I know Fields is a tough click
for me too, to be honest. I mean.
That's actually the best scenario for my brand equity is
he gets a chance at it and it's so bad that he gets re bench.
That's. Sam, that is.
Well, that's your position. It's so.
Nice. Yeah.
Yeah, hurt in the chat. Mason Rudolph is a Titan for
now. We'll see.
Yeah, for now, the Steelers are trading a first round pick for
him on Week by Week 7. Come on, Luke McCaffrey.
By the way, before we move on, I sounds like we're moving to
another position, but Luke McCaffrey, we we're going to be
pretty aggressive when I think I what?
Is he? I called, I called this.
I said I I called this weeks ago.
I was like, guys, let's just be honest, Luke Mccaffrey's going
to be good. And the only reason for that was
because his last name was McCaffrey and.
Another. Another.
You were right, Sam.
And look, now he gets to be competing with Johann Dodson for
Target, So you get to double down on your target competition
point. I mean, that's not much
competition. Another Nepal baby to succeed in
Washington. Luke McCaffrey.
Yeah let's let's get on. I think there's other
interesting conversations here with other wide receivers, but
let's let's go to running back now.
We're 20 in we'll hit on those guys later I'm sure Jonathan
Brooks surprisingly high draft capital maybe are a little bit
higher than expected. Pick 46 goes to Carolina.
I had that rated as a good landing spot just cause the
depth tar competition is barren. Davis where?
What are your thoughts on this Brooks Landing Spa in?
Carolina I just think I'm going to get priced out.
I I mean, I I I don't if he stayed at 106 sure.
But I I have a sense that he's going to end up.
I mean what what's what's the theoretical difference between
Jonathan Brooks and Rashad White?
Well, Rashad White's bad. Yeah.
No, no, I'm. I'm not even saying in terms of
scale or whatever. I'm just saying in terms of
like, friend drafter's minds, like, is Chuba Hubbard, Is Chuba
Hubbard more of an obstacle than Bucky Irving?
I mean, he's coming off a torn ACL that he suffered in November
and didn't get surgery for until December, so I would hope we get
a a discount on that. I think we'll get that discount
plus the Panthers stink discount.
Like we'll like literally we'll get the discount from David
Tepper walking into the restaurant owner's store and
taking his hat off. Like we're getting that type of
discount because no one wants to touch Panthers, I think.
But to your point, Davis, I mean, this is the type of pick
that normally would end up going in the fifth round.
Yes, yeah. But if he's an eighth round
pick, I'm pretty. I'm pretty in.
I don't really think. I don't really think he's that
interesting though, 'cause it's just either.
Like he'll rise a little bit, but his ceiling is so capped by
the David Tepper, Bryce Young experience.
Yeah, I think he should actually fall a little bit from where he
was going on the big board. I mean, yes, he got draft
capital, but this is not a fun. I mean, he could have gone to
the Cowboys like they were. He could have gone to the
Chargers, I mean. He could have gone to the Rams.
If Jonathan Brooks went to the Rams, how high could his ADP?
Go. Yeah, yeah.
I mean, he could. Have went to Miami.
He could have went to Miami. No, I I'd push.
I think the the Panthers landing spot is better than those 'cause
then we're talking scenarios where it's like, is he just a
handcuff? Like, is his knee gonna be OK?
Sure, but I mean the Chargers and the the Cowboys.
Were the Chargers and the Cowboys?
Yeah, 100%. I mean you had even coming off a
torn ACL, he's like a six thrown pick in those in those landing
spots. So that that getting pulled out
of his range of outcomes should create a a fall in his price,
but I don't know that it it won't.
It. For sure.
Won't. No, it won't.
And and Benson, I bet, rises a little bit too.
I think Benson rises for sure. Benson, we moved up.
I I moved. I moved, no, I moved him up and
I moved Connor down. But that's, I'm very predisposed
to doing that, obviously. Yeah.
Benson was very tricky because he I wanted to move him down
from his ADP, which is a little bit, you know it.
It also included some of those absolute nuts landing spots, but
I I ultimately think he rises a little.
Isn't Arizona kind of an absolutely nuts landing spots
you share the backfield with the 29 year old who?
Can. Dominate.
I think it's yeah, I think it's good.
But second round, Cowboys is what we you know, we're second
round, Chargers third round. Cowboys, yeah.
Yeah, it's it's not as good. Yeah, but I don't know like I
hear you on. I don't know, I just, I I feel
like we should kind of throw like the pre draft anchoring out
the window to some extent. Like I'm not that worried about
like oh like well he didn't get the nut landing spot therefore
he should go down a little bit. I don't know like.
I'm more thinking of it like. You're right, we should throw it
out. We should throw it out.
It's just like a, you know, a way for me to think through it.
But you're right, it doesn't really matter.
Yeah, and and I think, you know, comparing him to like Tony
Pollard or Naji Harris or I don't know, I'm trying to list
guys who are going in that range.
I think Benson is a better pick than those guys.
So I I think this is an awesome landing spot for him.
I do think James Conner is good, but if they're both hovering
around pick 100, I think they'd both be pretty, pretty good
selections there. The the one concern I have with
Benson is actually the draft capital part of it where like he
was a college committee back and typically with those guys you
really do want to see that they get drafted really high in the
NFL draft or they end up just kind of being actual committee
backs in the in the NFL. Like the it's the the guys that
like with Blair's Blair Andrews backfield dominated rating has
done a a really good job of finding guys who dominate the
backfields in the late rounds. They kind of the guys who can
emerge, but it's generally not been something you really care
about for guys like Etienne or Josh Jacobs or Miles Sanders who
like didn't do that in college, but all those guys were, you
know, round one or two picks. Benson, the draft capital makes
me a little bit more nervous about who he is.
He might be kind of a committee back in the pros, I think So I I
don't want to chase it up too far.
But yeah, I mean, I I probably would take him over DeAndre
Swift or Tony Pollard. Yeah, you're definitely, I think
like there's definitely scenarios.
I mean, James Connor was just really good last year.
There's no two ways about it and there's definitely scenarios
where Trey Benson is just a backup to James Connor like
that. That wouldn't be crazy.
Still though, I think there's a certain point like you're
getting such certainty that he's going to have a role or at least
be the RB2 on the team that I'm willing to pay.
Like a little bit of a premium even not being sure if he's
going to be the starter. Just cause yeah, I I I think
it's still pretty exciting landing spot.
Yeah, I'm gonna touch on a little bit.
I like that. I like that Take.
Yeah, Korum, we touched on this in the beginning, but this was
one of the more fascinating landing spots to me.
Like, I think from a starting point, there's no RB2 on the
RAM, so that's really good for Korum.
I think he's like 100% locked in as the RB2.
Then the question is like how much is he into Karen's
workload? And I think that's almost an
unanswerable question right now, but something that's going to be
really interesting to monitor through the summer.
Any more quorum quorum takes. I know we've touched on this
earlier. Weirdly, I I feels like I need
to force myself to be in on him and I did move him up in my
stuff, but I I don't know. It's just it's like right now I,
I it's very hard to say. Is he a pure handcuff?
Is he Daryl Henderson? Is he Cam Makers?
Is he? Is he Ronnie Rivers Is he?
You know, I, I and the Rams are so weird about their draft picks
too. Like they take guys like they
they spent second round picks on Van Jefferson and Tutu Atwell
and then like didn't play them, you know.
So I don't know. We don't even know what the Rams
do with draft picks because they trade them all away.
Yeah, I think he's probably a pretty good pick at the similar
ADP to what he had. And yeah, it's also kind of an
interesting one because we all thought he was going to the
Chargers, you know, as their, their new starter.
That doesn't happen. But yeah, maybe he should just
kind of go where he was going because, you know, he's right.
By Zach. Zach Charbonnet.
It's like the exact same bet, right?
It's just like pure contingency. But you know you're actually a
little bit more excited about Blake Korum if if he were to
have the contingent bet pay off. But Charbonnet probably has a
bit more standalone value, maybe he works in more the receiving
downs and that type of stuff and Cora might just be like a
straight back up for a lot of the season.
So, but that's that's how I'm viewing it like that that type
of contingent value bet that you want to start taking in the
early double digit rounds. That makes sense.
Marshall Lloyd want to touch on here?
I don't know. I think this one is like kind of
similar in some ways. I think you're pretty clearly
getting the handcuff. AJ Dillon, I think is.
I don't know. I just don't think he's any good
anymore. They can get out of his contract
pretty easily if they want to. And he's on a really cheap deal
anyways. Yeah, don't.
Don't really. I think don't really see Lloyd
pressing Jacobs to be the starter in year one, but there
could definitely is a role for a second running back on this
team. Lefleur is always kind of
heavily. Used the second running back.
Yeah. So yeah, I don't know.
I don't have anything. Else I want to I want to I don't
want to talk about Jalen Wright because I I that feels like we
could spend like let's save that for another time.
I think we could do that for an hour because then it gets into
other AD PS. But I I think Bucky Irving is
more interesting to do in a vacuum because we basically saw
Rashad White. I mean he was he was bucks Kyron
Williams last year like he like they were playing no one else.
They weren't taking him off the field on 3rd downs then we're
taking him off on goal line. And I mean you know structure
structurally, I don't know if that is what they want to do.
They also have a new offensive coordinator who might be less or
more committed to doing that. And I mean, as we have famously
argued on this show, like Rashad White's fine.
He, but he's not great. I mean, Rashad White's not great
NFL running. How's he?
How's he stacking up for you in terms of the watch scale, Sam,
'cause last year I believe you said he was the roughest watch
in the NFL. He's he's still the roughest
watch in the NFL. On actually, I'll give, I'll
give him this. He out of the backfield as
receiver Rashad White is a perfectly cromulent.
Cromulent Theo. Ridic.
He is. He is perfectly good.
Theo Ridic. He's perfectly cromulent as a
receiver, As a rusher, I challenge you to find a tougher
watch besides AJ Dillon, I'll give him that.
He's easier to watch. Than AJ Dillon.
He's easier to watch than AJ Dillon.
Shout out by the way. Shout out to Underdog 4,
including CEO Nvaki as a running back in the.
Playing pool, yes. That's huge.
Here's my point on to to piggyback off your Irving, take
Davis. Rashad White was like the Kyra
Williams of the Bucks last year. But I think what's different
than with the Bucks is they tried to get other guys
involved. Like early on it was like Sean
Tucker. Oh, he sucks.
OK, let's try Keshawn Vaughn. Oh, he sucks too.
OK, let's try Chase. Let's try Chase Edmonds.
Von Chase Edmonds. And I don't think it was wrong.
Yeah, like they were. Trying.
Yeah, Yeah. So I think Bucky Ribbing is like
a pretty like, I think he's immediately draftable, you know,
last round type guy. And I think he's kind of
interesting as a handcuff, just because he only has to be better
than Chase Edmonds. Yeah, I mean that's how we found
Kyron last year, right? Like no one thought he was going
to be a smash. We just thought he was free
contingent value. And so you draft these guys that
that are clear handcuffs and. I took like 0.
Bucky Irving pre draft.
Now I think he's the target. I also think Ray Ray Davis is an
obvious, obvious target right now.
I mean, it's just he is, I mean he can catch passes too.
He's big body. They like, You want to talk
about a team that tried everything they tried Damien
Harris, who retired the literal oldest running back in the NFL,
Ty Johnson. I mean the the, the Bills tried
everything they could do to get James Cook off the field.
Yeah. And then I think the rest of
these guys, I agree Dave, this is a clear target.
I think the Shipley, Gorendo, Braylon, Allen, these are all
like camp battle situations to monitor.
I feel pretty iffy about like drafting them now because I
think Shipley could easily be, you know, RB four behind Boston
Scott, but he also could be the RB2 if he wins that role, right.
So for me these other guys, Gorendo, Braylon, Allen, sorry
Davis, I want to see the camp battle like pre season.
Braylon Allen might lose a camp battle to Isaiah Davis.
They. They drafted another or.
Is he a band of camp? I mean, Izzy looks.
Decent, so I'm not so worried about.
Both of your guys, brand equity just got wiped, wiped out so
much I know. I was taking so much Izzy.
Like they already got priests. They got Izzy.
They don't need to add a single one.
Back and then they jump and they added four more.
OK. Sam, Sam.
Unironically, I think. The guy who just like locked
himself in as a like a guy who could have a league winning
stretch on a day three running back.
I mean, it's Tyrone Tracy. If Tyrone Tracy is as efficient
as all his fake metrics say that he is, which they are all fake.
But I mean, I've seen people making the Bull case.
I've seen people make the David Johnson comp, and it's so good
because David Johnson came out on this awful, awful Cardinals
team and his first NFL touch was a kick return that he returned
or a punt return that he returned for a touchdown.
He this was, remember, this was late stage.
Chris Johnson that this is not good.
Chris Johnson This was like late stage.
Yeah, this is. The end this is the end, right.
So we have, we have I mean not that the Devon Singletary
experience was ever electric, but we're on contract 3 Devon
Singletary. I'm saying then it's it's it's
very decent. The offense, it's a great.
Landing spot for? Us.
It's a great landing spot, yeah. I would go there, I would think
number one or sorry bad. Do you have a point on Tracy?
I was. Well, I just, I think he's, he's
a kick returner, right? So he's going to be active on
game day for for that so. You know, you know who this LED
us to. I mean Roshan Johnson.
Pacheco oh. Yeah, that's right.
That's right. We're like, we're like, he got
drafted to be a kick returner. He's going to, he's going to be
active on game day. The guy I was gonna go with here
as the guy that I think is immediately draftable of this
round five, round six guys is Kamani Vidal.
I don't know. Anything about him and Lauby,
they're both, they're both draftable right away.
So I guess I'm more interested in Vidal, just 'cause I think,
yeah, you you could, you could say Lauby's very.
Draftable. Lauby's Extremely draftable.
Sam, this is the Raiders running back to depth chart behind Zamir
White fourth round, fourth round pick Zamir White, who by the way
has 32 receptions in the last five years of his organized
football career. Yeah, but he was productive in
college, right? Right.
Right Alexander Madison, Amir Abdullah and Britton Brown are
are are the are the competition for for lobby?
Yeah, but I mean, how much do we win when we win in O'connell's
scatback? I.
I mean if it's, if it's. Honest guys, come on.
Instead of the Chargers, the Chargers starting running back.
I mean, look, you're not wrong, but just let us have fun here on
the program. Sam, this guy is a huge
pickleball, bro. You gotta be with you all.
Right, I'm back in. All right, we gotta.
But Vidal, I mean, I, Pat, can you tell me anything about
Vidal's prospect profile? I was about to like do a pro
take on him and I literally. Don't know anything about him.
He's sick. I.
Don't know if I'd say he's sick. Let's say I know JJ likes him a
lot, so I I just trusted him. But.
He did not rate well in my in my stuff, I think because of
explosiveness concerns. You know what?
I got him confused with Isaiah Davis.
Isaiah Davis is the sick prospect, actually.
Vidal had, yeah, Isaiah Davis, I think is is more interesting.
Vidal had a 35% breakaway percentage and 0.81 years per
out run, which would point to explosiveness, red flags and
also a lack of receiving ability.
He did have 16.5 routes per game, so they got used a lot as
a receiver. He was a a decently, it was a
workhorse running back. He broke a lot of tackles both
per game and per touch. So it's it's kind of like what
the Chargers need like Josh Kelly.
But it works like you could. You could see him being that,
but I don't there have been. So many of these guys on the
Chargers. Josh Kelly.
Isaiah Spiller, Kayla. Larry Roundtree.
Larry Roundtree, The Third. I mean they just, if they take a
day three running back every year and they all stink.
Yeah, I mean it it feels a little bit like that, but
there's such. The depth charge is so bad in
front of him, yeah. Yeah, I think.
I couldn't take practice from Braylon Allen.
Is there a more Jim Harbaugh running back than Braylon Allen?
Come on. Dude, I mean, yeah, it's.
His name is Blake Coram. He played for the University of
Michigan. Why didn't they draft him?
Cruel twist of fate that he's going to, That he's going to Los
Angeles and not playing for the Chargers.
I know it. Really is Tyrone.
Tracy is like a real target for me, though, in these drafts.
Like I I'm like, actively trying to get him on these teams.
I like that. And yeah, just him being active
I think is is probably more important than than it might
seem like. But yeah, I mean Vidal is we
have way above ADP. He's someone.
It's like the odds of him being a total zero are high.
Tyrion Davis Price would be a a a comp here.
Like that's sort of I think what we're doing right and it's
probably going to work out just as well.
But there's there's such opportunity.
There's a reason we took Tyrion Davis Price because there's a
lot of opportunity in that backfield and I don't think it's
wrong to to chase that here. I mean, can it really be Gus
Edwards and JK Dobbins all season?
Like I I think it's worth at least, you know, making the
play. Yeah, I think both the Chargers
and the Cowboys are one where we're going to have to be
grounding this beat all offseason to figure out who the
starter is. I I honestly wouldn't even rule
out like, I think some new cut candidates emerged after the
draft. I think Jeff Wilson with Jalen
Ryan there could get caught. Semaj P Rein with the estimate
getting drafted there he's an easy cut.
One of those guys could be in the mix and one of those two
teams too. So that's something we'll just
have to to monitor. OK.
We're going to close out with our favorite segment last year.
I think I famously won this pretty easily over Pat and
Davis. Let's make a Let's make a rule,
though, right now. We can't pick anyone right now
who straight up did not have an ADP like a week ago.
Or. Or was like like you can't, like
you can't take Tyrone Tracy. You have to take.
A What you have to you have to take a real pick.
Should we do non Rookie Edition because all of us are gonna pick
rookies? Yes, that.
You know what, it's actually a much tougher exercise to not
take rookies. So yes, let's do that.
All right, I I got one. I think actually why I lost last
year is 'cause I always let you guys go first, taking the
obvious easy pick. So I'm gonna just.
Totally. Step right up and go first here.
This is an ETR special. A Mike Leoni special.
Josh Palmer, an ADP of 134 man ETR has him ranked I think at
like 95, right? Now that's the way to win the
game is look at where Leone has the Deltas between ADP and Rank
and you're like, great, all the auto drafters are feeding right
in my hands. Yeah, but on a more serious
note, I do think Palmer like he has something to him.
I didn't prepare this, but he was pretty good last year.
Like, easily. Better than Quentin Johnson.
Don't debase yourself by arguing for Josh Palmer.
I mean, honestly, like you. Yes, you're gonna get your
points. But just like, come on, come on.
All right, Can I go? All right, guys, this was easy.
It's Zeke Elliott. It's Zeke Elliott.
For all the fucking money. Good luck.
Game's over. I win.
Producer. Producer.
Note that Pat is cheating, but fine, I mean.
It's just I I don't know how he's possibly going to catch me
now because I've got Zeke Elliott.
ADP outside of top 200 did have an ADP was getting drafted.
Cheating. Yeah, now that's cheating.
It's not cheating, it's. Fine, it's fine.
I mean, you've always done this you, you play the game kind of
the easy, the cheap way, you know?
I win the game. He did.
He did do this. He did do this multiple times
last year, yeah. Yeah, he takes a break.
That's fine. I mean, obviously I would have
said Zeke. If I, you know.
Had thought of it. I will.
So I'll give the people. I'll give the people A a real
example that actually will help them draft teams.
Justin Herbert, quarterback 15. Right now, once people start
getting horny for Ladd, they're just going to, they're going to
start reaching on Herbert. And also this collective idea
that the Chargers are going to run.
You know, the wing T Yeah, they're going to run the ball a
ton. But he's still Justin Herbert.
He he's going to end up going ahead.
A minimum golf, but probably probably Caleb.
Maybe he might get up to quarterback 10.
I could see it, but he's definitely going to rise.
Thanks for saving Rico Dowdle for me for next week.
Oh. My God, going first.
I'm going first. So useful all.
Right. Well, we'll be back next week.
Announced it on Twitter. But this will be a regular time
going forward, 3:30 PM Eastern on Mondays.
And yeah, that's all I have. Davis, anything.
Yeah, doing, doing the rankings up on patreon.com/take Cast
Sports, Good Fantasy football, Podcast, Take Cast, all all that
good stuff. Let me yeah, let me get my my
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That's just going to happen for a yearly subscription, so heads
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Similar but similar. Well, they yeah, they do rig
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Yeah, well, get in on the fun, legendary upside.
Awesome, guys. All right.
We'll see you next week.