Hello everyone and welcome to my final cold open for in season
ADP Chasing. So it's not going anywhere.
Davis and Pat will be bringing you guys to the end of the
season here on ADP Chasing, but this will be my final show.
We have a lot to cover today. I'll give sort of a quick
summary of what's going on with me and then we will get to a mid
season check in on our truth serum takes.
Let's do it. ATP chasing is for when you
watch ship chasing, you go these guys are just football guys.
And the targets for outrun leagues, that's going to be
really nice, actually. Back in, if it's Austin, it's.
Here to our crystal ball. close your eyes.
You know all your entries are going to lose anyway.
Yeah. That's fair.
This is a Deuce von show. It's.
Anti cabal. It's anti the best ball thought
leader. I'm obviously lying to some
degree because like, I have a lot of both of these guys.
It's the most disgusting thing you can make, but man.
End of an era. It's been it's been a fun ride
guys. Welcome Davis, Pat Week 9 and
season 80P chasing. How are we doing today?
Doing good. You know, the show will go on,
but I just don't see any way that we're going to be able to
make as disgusting pics as we did with with you on the show,
Sam. It's going to be hard.
It's going to be sad every week when the intro plays I.
Know you know. It's going to be the, the, the
intro will always be a brutal, a brutal reminder.
You know we and and we're not. Going to get to see.
Yeah, you know, we're not going to get to see Sam's New England
Cottage background anymore. It's going to be, it's going to
be pretty tough. It looks like your internet's
trying to give out on you right now.
Yeah, the CLV game in shambles. I promise you, Corinne and I
will not be tracking CLV next offseason.
I used to be the background king.
You know, there's, there's people kind of coming and going.
Sam has so many. Is this a commune that you live
in? Sam, There's there's.
No, there's, there's been various representatives of the
bank just. Just kind of coming slowly to.
To take all my, they actually just took my, my Wi-Fi.
So I think that's what happened there.
But yeah, slowly but surely being stripped of all my assets.
But yeah, I miss what you said there, David.
Something weird is going on with my Internet.
But yeah, you guys are going to do justice for the show, I'm
sure. Yeah, something, something will
happen. It's going to be great.
It's going to be entertaining. I wanted to start off to allow
me to be self indulgent here for a second and just give sort of
my my quick story about what's going on with me.
A lot of people, you know, reach out over the past week and say
things like, Oh, I hope you're OK, things like that.
So I just want to get the, the story out, you know, I'm totally
fine. I just want to kind of provide
people with context and what I'm doing, what's going on.
So I, I guess just like zooming out to go back to my start in
the fantasy space. For me, I kind of got into
fantasy content creation and kind of a, a happenstance way.
It actually started with the the main event guest streams that
Pat and Pete did. This was back in like summer
2021. I signed up for one of those,
kind of got a taste of what it's like to go on the Internet and
fire off fantasy football takes like, oh, this is, this is
pretty fun. Maybe it's something I would
enjoy. I was working full time at that
point, didn't really have time for it.
And Fast forward a year, I started grad school in 2022 and
Pat actually reached out asking if I wanted to do stat chasing
with with Trico. And I honestly never really
thought about doing fantasy football while I was at my NBA.
But then I was like, oh, this is a cool opportunity.
I have some free time. I'm not working full time.
I can do this on a Friday or whatever and let's see how it
goes. And from there, that show I
thought went great. Love doing that pitch.
Davis and Pat on ADP chasing. I thought that that went much
better than I expected. Kind of had an audience from
that and that kind of spiraled to.
You'd be much better than expected.
What'd you say? What do you mean much better
than expected? Well.
You know it's. Pretty It's a pretty nerdy show.
When you do something as nerdy as hyper, specifically tracking
where other nerds are taking fake fantasy players in one
specific contest on one specific applet, that's a pretty hyper
niche show. That is true.
Actually the response was quite, quite good, much better than
than I think we all expected. Not that we have some crazy like
not there's 100,000 people tuning into ADB chasing.
I get it just in in the context of like a niche fantasy show.
I thought it it did well. And like, you know, frankly,
I've had a lot of industry people reach out to me and
saying how much they like the show.
So maybe it's like a a fantasy football show for fantasy
football analysts a little bit. That is, yeah, this this is for
everyone who styles themselves, you know, sort of sort of like,
yeah, oh, I'm, I'm on the sharper side of the industry.
You know, they're like, oh, I love ADP chasing.
Yeah, even though our collective listeners, if they followed our
advice, they they're probably not doing too well.
But that's. What size are moving up?
OK, they're moving up. They're good.
Friends in a bank examiner. Yeah, they're good for.
Yeah, exactly. So I, I share all this to say
that like fantasy football for me was like a bit of a side
quest in what I was doing career wise, what I was doing school
wise. That kind of obviously spiraled
into, you know, from a spot side quest to kind of the main plot.
Over the past couple months I started more or less doing full
time fantasy football work, doing a gig with ETR, writing an
article for them, doing a gig with Underdog, helping Pat out
with leg UPS, still continuing the show.
At the same time though, I I had this corporate job that actually
paid for my grad school. I'm more or less required to go
back and work with them. Not not legally or anything like
that, but I would suddenly have a lot of bills to pay for the
grad school that they paid for if I decided not to do that.
So this was kind of always coming.
They gave me a late start date later than I expected in
November, which is why I kind of scrambled to do all these
fantasy football roles, kind of make it more of a full time
thing to plug the financial gap a little bit over the past few
months. But yeah, it's, it's, you know,
it does. It still feels weird to me.
I guess I'll say like I still have had some doubts about this
decision, like, oh, can I try to do something part time with
fantasy and do this full time job at the same time.
And I sided on at least taking a long break from doing fantasy
football content. I think 6 months a year from now
already visit if I can kind of do both.
But yeah, it's just nothing exciting.
Just kind of financial career decision for me and that's what
it came down to. So that, that's the basics of
the story. I'll, I'll stop ranting.
But yeah, Davis, Pat, I don't know if you guys have any
questions or comments. If you do, feel free to ask
otherwise. Are are you going to be able to
take breaks from your bank examiner job to come on my
stream so that you can get your Eric all exposure next year?
I don't know, coming off AC out there that might be, might be
tough to get exposure. But yeah, I think, you know, I
don't expect to do 0 fantasy football streams next year.
I would love to occasionally come on as a guest for for
people show. So I'm sure I'll find ways to,
to get on their ways, get some, get some takes out there.
But it's I'd say it's pretty unlikely that next year I'll be
doing like a regular show. I don't want to say that's 100%
it's going to happen, but I'd say it's it's pretty unlikely
that I'll be doing like anything weekly or anything of that
regularity. It's a real twist that Sam
turned out to be the bank examiner in the end.
Yeah, you weren't able to draft much this this summer because
you're in Maine, but you do now. Sam.
Well, Sam's. Actually the.
Mole. He's the mole.
The Bank sent Sam into our universe to be like these guys.
These guys have $3000 worth of Jalen Warren, the the the backup
running back on the worst offense in football.
We we need to investigate this immediately.
Yeah, I, I was hired by, I mean anyone who had any pro Keenan
Allen takes this season, that was something I was sending
right to the bank examiner. They'll be following up with you
guys about that shortly. So yeah, I'm sorry, I'm sorry I
had to come to this, but I'm sure, I'm sure you understand
that things got a little out of hand financially.
Thomas says. Now I've become the bank
examiner, the destroyer of bags. So true.
So true, man. Although the JSN bags doing
pretty well, this is a good night for him to go on.
I do appreciate. I appreciate.
JSN famous famously I was in on JSN this year because of the
every stuff. Yeah, we're.
We're gonna find out. We're we're gonna find out that
Blake Corum was actually playing coverage for the for the.
Rams he got upgraded. From the practice squad, but not
but but not not as a he or Cody Schrader.
Cody Schrader was, was playing cornerback or or or safety or
something for the Rams last night.
I, I mean, this is totally neither here nor there, but JSN
racking up 227 area yards, the most of any Seahawks wide
receiver in the Geno era, and having seventy of those yards
called back by penalty. So you look realistically like a
300 area yards game. I mean, we don't know nothing,
man. I know you think you know at
least the style of targets he's going to get, but we did not, as
it turns out. Yeah, Jacob had a good tweet
that was like it. It's impossible to have a
definitive take of JS NS like projection going for it.
So I'm paraphrasing or something like that.
But it's locked like 6 times today.
Like a being like he's so he's so back.
It's so over it like like he had 16 targets week two against the
Patriots, but then he was Jackson Smith Majigba again.
So what? What do you do?
I have no idea.
I have no way to diagnose it. Yeah, I don't know either.
Anyways, final thing I do have a right is he, is he picking up
the Locket mantle? Is that, is that what it is?
You know we're going to under draft him for eight straight
years. Yeah, I don't know.
Yeah, Locket, because he, I feel like he started off his career
being kind of like more boring and consistent and then he
emerged into being like extremely volatile and like
you'd either start him and get 2 points or you'd bench him and
get like 40. So I don't know, I guess that's
a little bit of JSN. Like last year he was kind of
stable but boring, and this year he's either 0 or 100 each week.
It's, it's a weird season anyways, This show, it's, it's
always jarring in the show to to try to be genuine and earnest.
That's not really what we're about here, but.
Really, really not our bit here on.
ADP It's no, it's not. So it's very discordant, but I
do I did kind of do some reflecting and I wanted to give
a couple like pieces of advice for anyone who's interested in
doing fantasy football content or thinking about it as a
career. I I had a couple things I wanted
to get out there. My first thing is, if you have
any aspirations of doing it or you think it's something you're
interested in and you have time, just go ahead and start making
content. Start a YouTube channel and
start doing streams. Post your takes on Twitter,
start a free blog. Like there's a lot of ways in
2024 where you can get content out there for free and build an
audience organically. And I think that if I'm
reflecting on myself, there was a large period of time where I
was interested in fantasy football and I followed it
really closely, but I just wasn't publishing any of my
takes. I wasn't doing anything with how
into it I was, if that makes sense.
So if I could go back to when I was in college or younger and
I'd started doing this earlier, that's maybe something I, I wish
I'd doing. So I, I don't know now, now I'm
almost 30, I have like bigger financial things to think about,
got a mortgage to pay off, etcetera.
And it's harder to, to make the leap into doing this as a full
time job. So that that's just my advice in
reflecting is just like start. Doing yeah, genuine, genuine
advice. This is in no way shape or form
sarcastic. It's going to sound sarcastic.
I I do not mean it this way. Do 55 second fantasy football
tik toks post them on TikTok, post them on Instagram.
You'll have a bigger audience than than me by next week.
No, no cap like 0 cap. You will, you will generate an
audience. I was really going to be honest
about telling someone to do how if they really want to make a
living on it. I would say total, totally
unexploited space. Instagram.
Like, look, Holka Polka doesn't come on our shows anymore.
He, he, he does his own, he does his own thing.
He's huge. Guy's huge.
Yeah, yeah, I, I agree with that.
Yeah. I don't even have any particular
takes on like where's best. I think Davis, I think you're
probably right there. I think, you know, YouTube's
also probably a good place to, to monetize and make money that
way. But yeah, just start just like
if you think you want to do it, just just go ahead and do it.
There's no like traditional way. And that kind of leads into my
second point. Like, I don't know, I feel like
when I was a kid, I, I pictured like jobs like, oh, you, you get
an internship at a newspaper as a sports writer, and then from
there you apply to NBC and get a job as a fantasy creator.
Like there's, there's no traditional paths in fantasy
football anymore. So I think that's my second
lesson to anyone who wants to do this is just like, don't expect
a hierarchical career ladder from one place to the next.
It's it's really completely the opposite of that.
I think there's maybe some people in the industry, like
I've actually heard Pat wrote a Pat talk about this that did
enter the fantasy space and sort of that traditional route.
And I would say that's like extremely rare nowadays.
So I I would. Say don't do that at all.
I would say do not plan on going into the fantasy industry and
getting a full time job at Rotoworld or whatever.
I would say plan on being a contractor.
Start your own thing, a Patreon, a website, a YouTube, whatever.
Don't don't be like I'm going to I'm going to be a, you know, a a
a a W2 employee for establish the run.
That's not going to happen. Yeah, I would also say I think
the most important thing is do stuff you're enjoying doing and
that you are doing really well and focus on doing really good
stuff. And then like, I mean to the
TikTok point, I mean, I don't know anything about TikTok, but
I would going somewhere with it's like fertile ground makes a
lot of sense to me. But then within that framework,
I think focusing on making sure the contents actually really
good as opposed to try and like hack your way to it.
I mean, like ship chasing would be an example of like kind of
how I, I've been doing stuff for a long time writing at Rotobiz
and stuff. But ship chasing ultimately I
think helped me get hired at Roto World when I was like 7
years into into doing all this stuff.
So, you know, we just didn't, it wasn't, we just sort of wanted
to stream our drafts, me and Pete, like it wasn't any grand
plan. We just enjoyed doing that.
We did a high stakes team together as part of fantasyland
episode and that kind of like evolved into articles and then a
podcast and then live streaming and and all that.
But it was always like this is a we're having fun.
People are responding to it in a fun way and and enjoying the
content we're putting out. So I, I tend to think, you know,
to Davis's point, if you're going to be doing this as a side
hustle, it has to be fun, right? It has to be something you're
enjoying. You can't like grind yourself
down trying to do this thing. And I, you know, to the extent
possible, like keeping your expectations in check for what
like the immediate future might hold on it because, I mean, I
did, I did stuff on the side for a long time.
So yeah, I just doing stuff you enjoy doing and with people you
enjoy doing it with, which is kind of advice Pete gave me a
while back. Yep.
That has served me well. So I mean, this, this show would
be an example of that. You know, we're just, we're just
hanging out and having a good time.
Exactly. I think.
I think that's why people enjoy it, Yeah.
Yeah. And yeah, for the side hustle
thing too, I want to say that that's like a totally viable
path. And that's what a ton of people
in this industry do. I think like I didn't realize
that until I became a part of it, that like there are a lot of
people obviously doing this as a full time job, but there are
equally a lot of people who they do one or two articles, I do one
or two shows and then they work a normal nine to five job on top
of that. And I think that's like an
awesome balance for a lot of people.
I think me personally, I'm really obsessive and that's, I
think both one of my strengths and my falls that I, I really go
all in when I do something and I have a hard time like balancing
multiple things. I just know that about myself.
So at least for the short term, I, I decided not to go that
path. But certainly that's very viable
for a lot of people. And I, I would say like a year
from now, two years from now, if I feel like I settled in at my
corporate job, that's certainly something I'd consider.
So, yeah, I did think that's a good point from Pat, yeah.
You did like ship chasing and stuff at ETR while you were
working like a corporate job for a while, yeah.
When I was at ETR, I did ETR as, as a side freelance thing.
Yeah, when I was, I was in a energy efficiency gig for like
10 years. But I started writing, I got
obsessed with Rotaviz like a couple like a year into that job
and I started writing, writing for Rotaviz like the year after
that. So I think I started writing for
Rose in 2014, got hired at Rotoworld in 2021.
So isn't that so funny that I'm younger than you, but I like
literally like by the time you were at Rotaviz, I'd already
like I was the 4th ever writer there.
Like it was like me. Yeah, Davis is.
When I talk about being obsessed with Rotaviz, it's like Davis
and John Moore and Matt Friedman.
Yeah, it's like. I was there.
I was there before Matt. It was me.
Bales Fantasy Douche and John Moore were like the first
articles on It's so it's so funny how that works like.
The articles used to come out at noon, right around noon Eastern,
and I would just like be logged on refresh.
Refresh. Yeah, it was like four articles
a day early on cuz there were like 4.
Yeah, this is neither like here nor there, but I do remember
like my impression of Rhoda Biz back in the day, this is when I
was far less serious about fantasy football was like there.
There's zero RB article, which I think was always Sean writing
it. I remember that being like me
learning about running backs that I'd never heard of before.
I was like, this is some like scroll of running backs that
like nobody in my league, like even those exist and I'm going
to take at the end of my drafts and they're going to be league
winners. But yeah, that's it's just so
funny thinking back to how different fantasy football was
back then with with sleepers and and those type of things.
ANYWAYS, final piece of advice I have, and this is kind of like 2
pronged or two sides of the same coin I'd say for.
New content creators, I'd say like be bold about trying to
make connections in this space. Don't be scared or hesitant to
reach out to people who you think might be too good for you.
Don't have enough time for you. It's not always going to work.
And I'm not saying like spam every content creator and say,
hey, you want to start a podcast with me.
Like obviously that that's not going to work.
You have to get some level of credentials first are, are
getting established. But I would say for me, like I
reached out to both of you guys to start this ADP chasing show.
I had, I don't know, 900 followers on on Twitter.
I had no idea if you guys are going to want to do it.
And for a while I was like, oh, is this like a stupid idea to,
to reach out to you guys to see if you want to do it.
And it ended up being a great decision for me in this space.
So I'm not saying it's always going to work.
Like I, I feel like early on I was bold about that and got some
people to, you know, some big names in the space to come on
the show to collab with me. And other people I asked said
no. But I think that's like part of
fantasy football. I think most people in the space
are like really supportive and willing to do a guest show on,
on your podcast and support, you know, less established content
creators. And that's kind of the other
side of it is like, I'd say like if you do have an established
audience, and I think both Davis, you and Pat have been
great about this, like be supportive of up and coming
content creators, you know, retweet their stuff on Twitter,
have them on your shows, go on on their shows and kind of pay
it back that that's kind of how I viewed it.
I feel like I've had a lot of good mentors in this space that.
That's a big thing. I'm I'm, I'm pretty good about
like retweeting or whatever. I don't always go on other
people's shows a lot 'cause I'm like I do 90 hours of content a
week and sometimes it's a bit, it's a bit much.
But like I like, I know like like JJ and Reebs will just like
if you ask them to go on a show, pretty much they'll just do it
'cause I mean they were like JJ was around, he did the rotor
world thing, you know, before I even did.
So like they're, they're pretty big on on paying it for.
Which is not to say that if you have 3 YouTube subscribers and
you start a show. That, like JJ will.
Be your first guest, like maybe you will, I don't know, but
generally speaking a lot of people are are down to pay it
forward. Yeah, and I think it helps to
just like this goes to the TikTok idea and stuff like that.
It just like kind of just doing it because it helps.
Like I don't think it didn't matter how many follows you
follows. You had Sam, you had been on
stat chasing. So we need to be on camera and
do analysis. That's yeah.
It's like, can you like, you know?
No, it's a. It's a pretty big do, yeah.
Because a lot of people are not good on camera.
Right. So if you're if you're good on
camera and you can do analysis, right, or if you're can do
analysis and you're a good writer, right?
Those are the two things like that I would be interested in
knowing, you know, and it's hard to know unless I'm like, Oh
yeah, I see you doing it and it's good.
So there's that's good, you know.
Yeah, that's a really good point because I, I remember too in in
the early days of statues and like talking to, I think it was
Pete, maybe not you, Pat. I was like, oh, Pete, what do
you think about getting guests on the show?
Like, I think it could be fun. And he was like, honestly, like,
I think you guys just aren't quite ready for it yet.
You like got to get your own cadence down.
I think that was great advice. Like having 10 whatever streams
under my belt before I tried layering in guests like yeah
you. Got.
You got to get reps in first. So, yeah, whether that's a solo
stream or you have a buddy that wants to do it with you, like
get get reps in first. And but yeah, anyways, I just
say like, don't like worst thing that can happen.
You ask Pat, you ask me to come on your podcast and I'll say,
sorry, I'm too busy, I don't have time.
Like I, I feel like there was this huge barrier I was making
up of like, oh, what if I ask someone and they say like, fuck
off, I'm not interested. Like who who who cares, man?
Like if. It's not really the space it is,
yeah. To be honest, if you ask me and
I don't want to do it, I probably just won't respond and.
Yeah, and that's fine. Yeah, and the world, the world,
we could just move on. Exactly, Yeah.
So don't, don't be discouraged by that.
But yeah, that's, that's all I had hope.
Hopefully that's helpful for for someone out there.
And I definitely don't want this to be a lesson of like, oh, I, I
think this is a terrible space and you have no future in it.
And this is all dark and gloomy like.
I, I think I, I leave today, I leave fantasy football content
creation, like being pretty happy about what I've done and
thinking like if I wanted to make a career doing this, I
could do it. It wouldn't be easy.
It's, it's a really tough space. It's, it's going to be a grind,
But there, there's still a career for people who, who want
to do this as a full time job or want to do as a side gig.
So yeah, don't I don't want my final word to be like, oh, this
like be discouraged or give up on doing this.
Like that's certainly not what I'm what I'm trying to say here.
So that's my final word, Yeah. Anything else Davis patter?
Should we get into the the truth serum takes?
Then we can dive into it. We'll.
Miss you buds. Do it.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Hang on, I got to reload this.
I'll be right back. OK, All right.
So changing gears here. We did a truth serum takes show
for our last ADP chasing this offseason.
We're going to go through those takes 1 by 1 and we had, there
was actually an independent, independent panel of judges that
created each of our takes like kind of like a report card.
Yeah, that was actually just me, but.
Yeah, I didn't expect. I was worried.
I was worried it would, it would really violate those sort of the
ethic of the show or whatever to, yeah, to have someone come
in and objectively do this. No, no, it was just all me.
And it was. Actually, just Pete, Pete, Pete
just came in. Pete, actually.
Hired Pete would be too much. Pete hired someone actually with
with his BR winnings to to to greet him.
Exactly. Yeah, yeah.
But that. Person was Sam.
So we'll start here and last thing I'll say, yeah, the the
bank examiner took my PowerPoint license.
I thought that was a little unnecessary, but I had to make
these slides and and Google Slides.
So the quality is has gone down. Just wanted to get that out
there. Anyways, my we're going to start
with my first take. We did one team level take.
We did one player level take. We did 1 roster construction
level take. We're going to start with the
team level takes. First my first one summary.
I basically said Colt stink. My actual take was the Colts top
three skilled players are massively overvalued because the
market's overconfident that Anthony Richardson could lead a
confident NFL offense. This take was almost too good
because it actually got Anthony Richardson benched to the point
where the the pieces around. Downtowns is now actually really
a good pick. Yeah, yeah, except.
Except not even except like kind of not even because Joe Flacco
can't even maintain APPR scam because he's 41 or whatever.
Pittman and Taylor, and I think we talked about this when you
made the take, is that that Pittman and Taylor were, you
know, much worse picks than Downs because they were very
expensive. Yeah.
So, yeah, to be clear, I said the the top three players.
So I was referring to Pittman, Taylor and Richardson.
I was actually, I think where we disagreed on the offseason show
was I was out on Richardson too. You you guys were a little bit,
I don't think either of you guys were taking like huge stands on
Richardson. Not huge.
Stands, but I was definitely in. I was.
Exactly, Yeah. I just didn't.
I just could not have my name attached to an Anthony
Richardson fade knowing that he could score 19 rushing
touchdowns. But I wish, I wish I 'cause I
didn't draft, obviously the reason I didn't draft him was
just luck, 'cause I have 20% of the worst quarterback in
fantasy, Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes, in a way, kind of saved
me from Rich. I would have had a lot of
Richardson. Probably I would have more.
Richardson but he has the same bias.
Drake May. So yeah, that that helped a
little bit. No.
And Jane and Jane Daniels. So it was it was it was tough,
honestly. And Lamar.
So it's like, well, it's not even close.
So I'm choosing a week 14 by a quarterback I want.
Right, right, right, right. Yeah.
Yeah, I, I don't know what like the the lesson here is going
forward and this also I'll say that like I think it's firmly in
play that they go back to Richardson at some point and he
could. I I don't know man, you.
Think it's over? So like we've already gotten the
report that teams have reached out to trade him.
Like basically the reporting is not dissimilar from the Bryce
Young reporting, the reporting very similar to the Bryce Young
reporting and and a much weirder organization.
Like the Panthers are a weird organization, the Colts are
weirder. Jim Ursay's daughter is on the
sideline in a full uniform with a headset on.
Yeah, What's going on? What?
No Google it Fact Check true. He was doing this, she was doing
this last year too, apparently. I saw this on Twitter.
Yeah. I don't know what that means,
like what role she has in the sidelines or or what's going on
there, but certainly seems bizarre that she's on the.
Side right behind Steiken. Standing right behind Steiken.
Dude, this is a. Does she have a role?
Is she like on? Is she a an executive or
something? I don't know who.
Knows who knows, but it's it's they I mean, this is a team that
hired Jeff Saturday from coaching high school football.
Now he's on TV, he's not even a coach anymore.
Like. He was on TV when they hired
him. Yeah, he was on ESPN.
So basically, in my opinion, I think that if you made me bet it
either side -110 is Richardson the starting quarterback for the
Colts next season? I I.
I I would. Probably.
Say no. Probably.
Say it seems so bizarre, it seems so bizarre to me that
they're willing to give up on him this quickly.
I, I, I actually don't think like if the plan was to bench
him for a couple games, take some heat off him, have him work
on some things in practice and they go back to him like week
12. I actually don't think that's
like that terrible of a plan. You can certainly argue it.
If there is completely giving up on him to roll Joe Flacco out
there, I'm like, yeah, that makes absolutely no sense to me.
It makes so it's very strange because it goes against sort of
basic self preservation like Steiken needs to.
The Steiken's not going to keep his job and Ballard's not going
to keep his job if the Anthony Richardson thing is a total
disaster. Exciting came from Philadelphia,
right? Like he's, he helped Hertz
develop. Like that's the that's the idea.
So we're going to bring him in and he's going to help Anthony
Richardson become this this dual threat.
I. I don't understand I you almost
have to bring Richardson back if you think there's any chance of
you keeping your job. Maybe they're just like there
isn't. I'm going to get fired and I
want to go out with Joe Flacco like, but it it doesn't really
make sense to me. Similarly to like the Canalis
stuffer. I'm like, you're going to get
fired with Andy Dalton playing like this because no way you're
keeping your job. If like, I mean, I think this
thumb spraying may have like saved Canalice's job, you know,
because they they put Bryce Young back out on the field and
he's at least showing like more promise than he did before.
Probably not, but like that's the only path.
Like you have to show development from the young
quarterback. That's otherwise like, what is
the point, right? We're going to, we're going to
reset, we're going to we're going to get a new quarterback,
bring a new quarterback in. We're keeping the same coaching
staff that failed with the old quarterback like that rarely
happens. Yeah, so yeah, I I want to see
what the Colts actually do before I'm like too harsh on
them here. Like if if they are just playing
Flack for a couple games and go back to Anthony Richardson, I
don't think that's the craziest plan.
But yeah, I think that's what Davis has a point that.
Like that game was winnable last night though, and they they they
were calling like they called a third and short zone read with
Flacco as the quarterback. What?
Yeah. It's tough because I'm on both
minds of this because like, I think it's also entirely
possible Flacco comes out the next couple weeks and looks a
lot better like this. This Vikings defense has given
everybody trouble this year besides basically the Rams on
Thursday night last week. Like they made they made Stroud
with a healthy Nico Collins and Von Dix look really bad.
Like, so I don't want to judge Flacco too much based on this
one game. It was really ugly last night
and was just a terrible luck. But yeah, I'll, I'll give it a
little bit of time. Pat, you had something to say
there or? Yeah, I mean, people, I guess
what I would say is from a long term perspective, you know,
don't like it's over, this is over now.
Like this doesn't happen to a quarterback who's going to be
someone that we ever really want to draft in baseball again.
I think like I was assuming too much job security this year with
the assumption that Daikon wouldn't blow up his own head
coaching career, which this to me feels very much like.
Like it's hard to imagine. Worst move.
This this is Trey Lance. Well, it's, I don't know, it's,
it's like worse than Trey Lance, 'cause they there's no Purdy.
It's, it's different if you're a Super Bowl contender and you
have a guy who's Shoni can play cause the other guy got hurt and
you're sort of like, yeah, we're going to go with that.
Or you have a Jimmy Garoppolo, you know, and, and he's a
capable steward and your Super Bowl contender, but the team's
losing games are not going anywhere.
So anyway, I thought that there was more job security baked in
because Stiken would be really, really incentivized to not let
like, let's say hypothetically benching Richardson and then
having his offense look like total ass on national television
the following week like that. Just hypothetically, you know,
so I but I was wrong about that. And what I don't want to do is
ignore this going like someone said I was going to start next
year. Like I think most likely we get
a Jameis Winston style quarterback coming in a cast off
kind of a black OS type of guy. But it may be like a little bit
but but he's going to be the backup.
You know, we're not going to it's Richardson we're
recommitting to Richardson. That's like probably the most
likely thing, but it's going to it's over like you the way
Richardson became a great quarterback was continuity the
coaching staff building a system around him, specifically their
jobs tied to his success and he develops.
That's unless he like rebounds really strongly at the end of
this year and Stiken is is captain like I could see that.
But like a new coaching staff, he's done.
He's done. We, we can't, we can't, we can't
get pulled back in here by anything Richardson related
unless, again, unless he like, comes back and really blows the
doors off at the end of the year.
Yeah, it's going to be tough. Last thing I'll say is listen to
Amina Kimes podcast, I think it was with Dominique Foxworth, I
believe is who does that show with her.
Sorry if I if I'm messing that up, but he like had contacts in
the Colts locker room it sounded like and he didn't like come out
and say it. I think players are like a
little bit cagey about criticizing other players at
times, but he was kind of alluding to the fact that
there's things behind the scenes in Indianapolis in terms of
Richardson's preparation and things along those lines that
have not been up to parcel. I I don't think this is like
entirely on field performance for Richardson too.
You can still quibble with the decision and say it's a bad
decision to not let him go play through his mistakes.
But I think in situations like this, we we got to remember like
there's a lot of stuff in the locker room behind the scenes
that we don't know anything about.
And that plays a huge role in the decisions here, so.
I think probably it's too big a role.
Like I think clearly they're like pissed off, you know, about
what's going on. But like, like zoom out, man.
Like you've got, you've got one shot at being a head coaching.
You know, you got to get this guy back out on the field and
looking good. That's the only way you're
keeping the job. Yeah.
And yeah, the independent panelists here, Let's see how
they graded this take. Oh, wow.
OK, that was that was oh, come on, that's an A minus.
It's it's too good. It's too good.
It was. Yeah.
I I think this is about as 10 out of 10.
All right, fair enough, Fair enough.
I always thought you meant that. I always thought you meant it's
top three weapons, not including Richardson himself.
But if it's if it's Richardson, Taylor and Pittman, then I
guess. Yeah, it was those.
It was those 3 and. Yeah, and Will and Will Mallory.
Yeah, and Will Mallory, I said. I was.
I was taking stabs at each of the five Colts tight ends each,
all five of them. They're on the graphic I was
taking shares of now. God that remember that episode
that was dark. That was dark.
All right, we're going to Davis here.
This one's a little bit more interesting.
I should have said this to start.
How we'll do these is I'll give it to the person who had to take
first to say how they feel about it now, and then we'll debate
it. So Davis, your take was
basically along the lines of the Bengals are more fragile than
the ADP suggests. You talked about different risk
factors. Burroughs wrist, hand injury,
chases, hold out, tease, lack of guaranteed money.
Here's a picture of the Bengals players walking across a highway
to get to practice. Incredible real picture that
seems fake. It's not it's real.
It's. Real.
This is real. Yeah, this is not AI generated
real picture. So David, how, how are you
feeling about this take? I think there's pieces of truth
in this, parts of it, they're overblown, but what's your?
Opinion so the thing that has not mattered at all is Burrough
has been 100% healthy and Burrough has clearly been a good
pick in fantasy football. The overall Bengals being
fragile 100% real Jermaine Burton I mean the Jermaine
Burton said this is breaking my brain.
He he gets the IT it doesn't matter.
I got a lot of Jermaine Burton. Andre Yoshibas is basically the
worst wide receiver in the NFL. He is amongst players with over
150 routes or more. He is third to last in targets
per route run. Like half of his receptions are
touchdowns because it's the only place he can get the ball.
Zach Moss and Chase Brown kind of played out exactly how he
thought it would, which is Chase Brown is clearly the better
player, but they just want Moss on the field for pass
protection. Although I thought it was
strange yesterday that Trayvion Williams played three snaps.
Chase Brown got 28 touches yesterday.
Like like just kind of kind of, to be honest, I, I did not
really anticipate that much. I thought we'd see a little bit
of Trayvion. I thought we'd see a little bit
of Trayvion. Just to be tilted, like just to
just to tilt us where where I think you have to grade the
clear correction or the clear, clearly I was correct, is
Chase's holdout mattered. The offense started out so slow,
so brutal, so disjointed. And T's lack of guaranteed money
means that if he feels the twinge in his hamstring
correctly, he's not playing. And Chase's big games have
actually come with Higgins in the lineup because Zach Taylor
is a moron. Chase leads the NFL in
percentage of his routes where he is double covered and Zach
Taylor has no interest in like. He doesn't.
He doesn't just lead the NFL. It's like twice the rate of
normal. He's like literally like he like
25% is like fairly high. I mean, it's like, you know,
it's like a little high, like 60th percentile and he's at like
50%. It's not.
It's nuts. And they're and they're rotating
literally 4 tight ends. Literally literally Tanner
Hudson, Drew Sample, Eric All and Drew and and Mike Sickey all
ran at least 10 routes yesterday.
So yeah, I think the the the only part I'll grade myself a
failure on is Burroughs wrist. Doesn't matter at all.
It's really. Healthy.
Everything else I think I was either right or directionally.
What about when he picked up that that Cam?
What about when he What about when he picked up the Gatorade
bottle? That's harder to do.
What? What are we worried about?
That was, yeah, summer of fantasy football.
That was one we we've been a little harsh at points on the
injury doctors. Shout out to the injury doctors,
at least the the good ones on Joe Burrows wrist.
They were all saying like you guys are idiots.
That doesn't that doesn't matter.
He's going to be fine. So shout out to them.
I think they got that call right.
I will say, David, I think like this is a bit of an incomplete
grade too, because you alluded to it, but with like Chase and
T's contract situations, yeah, I think they're also.
Not going to make the playoffs, yeah.
Yeah, I think this could get messy end of season with them,
like sitting out games with very minor injuries.
It's I. Mean it's basically are like how
many games is Teigen's going to play this year?
Like 7. Yeah, I don't, I, I don't want
to like question these guys toughness because I don't, I
don't think that's what it is. It's honestly like, look what
happened to brand toughness. It's no.
It would be. Stupid it.
Would be stupid for for T Higgins to be like, you know
what, I got to grit it out for this team that is going nowhere.
Well, you know what the other thing is?
We see this in fantasy. I've been, you know, guilty of
this myself when when players play through injury, we don't
factor that after the fact. We look at what they did on the
field and they say, oh, they weren't very good.
I guess he's I guess he's washed.
It doesn't matter to us if they play through injury.
You have to be good every time you're on the field.
I think it's in T Higgins. You know, his incentives are are
like when I'm on the field, I need to be 100% and making plays
and putting everything on tape that's going to get me paid.
It's just a real like he just shouldn't be out there unless
he's he's 100%. Yeah, he has a bit of a tough
calculus because I think that's if he plays banged up and is
100%, that's going to be counted against him in contract
negotiations. Now, if he like really milks
this quad injury to the point where they think he's like
faking it, that's going to hurt him not only with the Bengals,
but I think other teams going to look at that and be like, that's
a bit of a red flag for a guy we're about to pay guaranteed
money too. So he has this really tough
calculus. Now, I'm not saying he's going
to like totally fake his injury the rest of the way, but if he
has any kind of minor ailment, I think we have to expect him to
sit. Bengals are also 4:00 and 5:00.
They have upcoming Ravens, Chargers, Steelers, then a.
Couple this Ravens game. This Ravens game is massive.
If they get smoked in this game on Thursday night against the
Ravens then we are in firm. They might not be playing
starters in the fantasy playoffs situation.
It's a tough schedule of defenses.
They also play the Titans, Broncos, Steelers again down the
stretch. So anyways, yeah, yeah,
independent panelists here, Davis.
I think they're a little harsh here.
I I'm willing to bump that grade.
Up I I was going to give myself AB minus I.
Was going to give myself AB minus.
I'll talk to the panel and see if they're.
Willing to let them know yeah this is too harsh yeah it's.
A little too harsh. Here's one that's interesting,
Pat. Here's.
Here's what I've noticed. Here's what I've noticed.
You always go, I screwed up this game.
You always go bearish because I can, I can say, hey, there's
still, there's still time for this to turn, so.
True always go bearish. Or we do this show after week
three-week 3. That's that's week.
Three, we're going, We're going. A+ Crane.
Crane. A plus baby.
Serum. Yeah, so for the audio listeners
here, Pat's take was backdoor Stack the Saints.
He was an absolute genius after two weeks now Shaheed's out for
the season. Derek Carr got another coach
fired. They lost the Panthers.
This one's getting a little ugly here.
I'll, I'll get out in front of it with my grade I or actually,
sorry, the independent independent panelist.
They did give you AB minus they gave you some credit for how
well the Saints did to start the year.
I do think there's a world where the Saints offensive line
doesn't get completely banged up.
Rashid Shaheed stays healthy and this take still looks pretty
good because look at the other quarterbacks you're comparing
car to. It's Bryce Young.
Who else was going really late? I guess Bo Nicks and Drake Mays,
certainly better picks than Derek Carr, but there were some
land mines towards the end of drafts.
Deshaun Watson, maybe you could throw in there as well.
So yeah, that that's my opinion on it.
Pat, I think you ran out bad a little bit, but maybe at the
same time it it wasn't the soundest take.
What? What's your thought on this one?
The reason it so if I'm criticizing my take, it's that
in almost any other situation I would also been saying we got to
be hammering this eighth round running back when we're doing
these backdoor stacks. Oh boy.
I wasn't doing that. So right there there's a huge
issue with the take. I've got a blind spot in it.
I'm taking this tight end who's going to run 33% of routes, but
I'm not taking a not just a cheap running back, but running
back who's the only Bible I like.
I was not taking Kendry Miller really at any point this
offseason. I I just did not think he had a
role. I wasn't taking Jamal Williams.
So the Camara mist continues to sting and it continues to sting
as part of this tag especially. Obviously Shaheed was a smash.
You know, there's sort of like two ways to think through this
stuff. You know, it's like everything
that happened would have happened and we should have
tried to predict that, but I think that's wrong.
Right. Well, if you weren't predicting
Shaheed's injury, because I actually had that one.
So yeah, you had the Shaheed injury.
Yeah, yeah, the the Shaheed pick was an awesome pick, you know,
so well. So getting on Shaheed was was
good if you're betting on a lave, you know, I mean, taking
the offense was DeMarcus. Robinson is still on the board.
Yeah, that's that's. DeMarcus Robinson, by the way,
I, I, I don't, I'm not even going to tweet this because I'm
so sick of everyone. But he, he, he right now is on
pace to set a, a Stafford era record.
So Stafford's whole career of targets to touchdown ratio.
I I did, I did search. Wow, he really is that good.
Impressive. Anyways, I get.
Get that was something up because.
Shaheed was a smash pick. Let's let's be honest, like,
yeah, yeah, yeah. Like if you had Shaheed
carstacks, I think you actually played it pretty well.
If you have I I think even though lobby was was a solid
pick, he's just not, you know, the the second round's been
brutal and obviously, you know, or is yeah, that was a a rough,
rough, you know, injury last last game.
But Mac Nova sums it up. The problem with this takes it
says Olave, Shaheed and Johnson instead of Camaro, Olave and
Shaheed, which is correct. It's it's the it's the blind
spot on Camara keeps this from because I mean, honestly, if it
said Camara, Olave and Shaheed stacked with car, it's an A+
take. I just, I just have the blind
spot on Camara, which continues to be a bummer.
Yeah, yeah. And again, I'll just say like I
think under told part of the story is the Saints offensive
line. Obviously weeks 1 and 2, they
beat up on the Panthers and Cowboys.
That's a little bit fraudulent. But they're in the worst
division in football, so like, you can reasonably expect stuff
like that. Yeah, exactly.
And and the the online was supposed to be terrible coming
into the season. It was surprisingly good through
a couple games and then I think they had two starting offensive
lineman go out before Week 3 or or during Week 3, I forget
which, that that really hurt them.
Not something that a lot of people are are mentioning, but
it was a fragile operation. I guess you can point to that,
but I think there was some bad run out here for the Saints.
Well. If I'm going to argue for for AB
plus, which I don't really care if you give me or not, but if
but it's going to argue for it, it would be that.
Part of this is that we weren't necessarily we were too high on
the other backdoor stacks. So the Panthers stacks, you
know, have been pretty bad. The Titan stacks have been
pretty bad. I wish I.
Could I wish I could call the bank examiner right now and send
every Titans stack? Like can I trade that in for $3
each? Yeah, because that's what you
have to think. Like what?
How many worlds exist where this would have worked?
And how many worlds exist where like Bryce Young stacks are
going to pay off? Like almost none.
Almost no worlds where Titan stacks pay off right like this.
It's just like it wasn't going to work.
We we discover pretty quickly into the season the Bo Nicks
stuff. I mean, Bo Nicks is a guy you
want but the stacks didn't work. Right.
Drake Mays a guy you want stacks.
Hunter, Henry. Stacks are OK.
Hunter, Henry Kendrick. Bourne maybe?
Kendrick Bourne yeah, it's not like it's more about the
quarterback than the stacks with I think both those rookies,
although yeah, getting Hunter Henry matters.
So, but anyway, I think part of the take was look, you can
actually stack this offense and and the quarterbacks, you know,
a little bit more locked in than than guys like Young and and
Levis and stuff. Yep.
All right, we'll move on here to our player Take section.
My take. Home run A plus.
A + A plus. Yeah, this one is a bummer.
Obviously Niko got hurt, so right down.
Well, right down to the hamstring injuries.
Niko Collins is Julio Jones two point.
O right now. Having hamstrings made out of.
Exactly, exactly. He's he's too fast and too
strong for his own body, so occasionally that's going to
hurt him. But yeah, I feel really good
about this one. I think that this wasn't just
like a hot take for the the sake of hot takes it.
It was based on the fact that Nico Collins had a three-point O
plus yards for Outrun in 2023. He was like 1 of only, I think 3
or 4 guys do that in the last 15 years.
The other three were Julio Jones, Tyree Kill and Cooper Cop
I believe. Maybe I'm missing one there, but
I think it's just those 3 and I thought everyone was like
tripping over themselves to make excuses for why it wasn't that
impressive. I know he was a second round
pick, but it's like, ah, we got to draft Marvin Harrison over
him. We got to draft Drake London
over him. You know, these these aren't bad
wide receivers, but I was just like, why?
Why can't we be more excited about Nico Collins?
3 point O yards per out run? He's like 6 foot four runs A4440
like I I just wasn't getting why we weren't more excited.
So. Yeah, I think part of the Nico
Collins stuff was like, and it's something I've tried to do a
better job of it. Like when a guy is not a great
prospect but then he has a great results, we need to be pretty
quick and be like, well, we're wrong, you know.
And what was Collins was a third round pick?
I think so. Is that right?
Yeah, He was an early declare third round pick, kind of like
developmental. I don't think he was early
declare. I think he, maybe he was a red
shirt junior, but I'm pretty sure he did at least four years.
So so the deal with Nico was that he was a giga 5 star like
this. Like when Michigan landed him,
it was like a big deal and then it was Michigan.
So he just absolute like, you know how many let's see him
going forward passes. They threw his two seasons, 2018
Michigan Wolverines, they threw 347 passes.
His quarterback then I believe is still in in still in college.
Shay Patterson. It's 2024 and.
In 2019. They threw 410 passes.
He. Yeah.
Just. Really, really incredible stuff.
Yeah, yeah, I don't, I'm not sure about the earlier.
He was 20/17/2017 high school class drafted 2021.
So he was, I don't know if he's red shirted a year maybe, but he
was. But he, he was very much like a,
you know, he kind of Terry Mclareny.
I'd say it's like bet on size, athleticism, downfield
production, and he comes in and he doesn't do anything his
rookie year, but then his sophomore year was was better
and then his junior year was or not junior, but his third year
in the league was like amazing, right?
And this is his fourth year. Yeah, this is fourth year.
But I think I was like the thing I'm like a little bit annoying
with myself was like I was like, well, Tank Dell, I didn't really
like that much of the prospect, but he's so good as a rookie and
now I'm in. Nico has been.
It took a little longer. But to your point, Sam, what we
got in the third season was so good that it should have like
adjusted priors more thoroughly. Yeah, here's where, not that
anyone cares at this point. This is the weird part of Nico's
profile that was missing. He opted out of the 2020 season
due to COVID. So that's where there's that
weird thing. But you you're right.
Yeah, he was not planning to be an early declare.
He was planning to play, obviously, in 2020.
So, yeah, I think that's a good point that you make, Pat, that
because it's not always wrong, like being being skeptical of
guys who aren't great prospects like that serves you right
sometimes. Like that probably would have
served you right with Christian Watson.
I think on the spectrum of where I land on this compared to like
you and Gretchen, other smart analysts, not saying like I'm
right or wrong on this. Like I'm more willing,
especially with all like the weird like COVID stuff that's
happened the last couple years. I'm more willing to just say
like kind of throw out the college stuff once I see it like
once we're talking year 4 in the NFL.
Like I don't really care about his college stuff that much.
But again, that there has been some points for that perspective
of like, oh, keep in mind the Longview and his profile more
does does pay off. So it's it's, it's one of those
things where it's not black and white like it's, it's a per,
it's a player by player thing that you got evaluated on.
Yeah, I do. I think I would probably say I
was a little bit biased though, because to your point, like in
Year 4, it doesn't really matter and he's coming up this
incredible season. But I'm going, well, he did a
lot of damage with with tank out and everything, but you could
also have flipped that and be like, yeah, but he was the only
option on the team and the entire offense flowed through
him, which is like what we're looking for.
So yeah, so yeah, that's what I didn't do.
It's like, Oh yeah, he had like 200 yards when everyone else was
hurt. And I'm like that seems good if
the guys who's. Running bus alongside of this.
Yeah, it's like Robert Woods and whatever, Noah Brown and the
defense still can't stop him like that seems pretty good to
me, but. You know, yeah, but I I tend to
think I'm kind of coming around more to your side of like, let's
let's like throw out the prospect stuff.
But when we get bullish news, like, you know, let's let's
let's say you look, I mean, you know, This is why I was so on
Rushy Rice. Like that was an amazing rookie
year. He plays with Patrick Holmes.
Like I don't care any any draft capital behind him.
So there was getting. Stuck down by Patrick Mahomes.
Like think of how think like recontextualize how good Rashi
Rice must be given how bad his quarterback play was.
Like imagine Rashi Rice on the Lions with Jared Goff.
No, go on, man. Kind of recontextualizes Travis
Kelsey's career too. It honestly does I.
Mean he held him back. Yeah, Kelsey's even Kelsey.
Even better. Yeah, for real.
But I think I don't know, I'd still like willing to I think
like if a guy's had a bad rookie season, we should maybe return
to the prospect profile and see is there any hope for I mean,
Tank Bixby would be an example of this, you know, like it's
like it is a decent enough prospect profile bombs his
rookie year. I think in that case, you want
to return and see if there's any hope for, you know, someone to
overcome disappointment. But yeah, when you get when you
get stuff as bullish as what Nico showed in year 3, like this
doesn't matter anymore. Yeah, let's move on here to
another hot button issue of the offseason of the season.
So far, this one's been a yo-yo Davis's take was Marvin Harrison
junior's overpriced. I actually got the the real
quotation from Davis here, so I'm not paraphrasing.
He said, quote, Marvin Harrison is one of the most spectacularly
overdrafted players in the history of Best Ball Mania.
Davis. This one is going to be
contentious, I imagine. What is your grade on this
stage? Who could possibly contend this?
He's not. He's not even like the second
best rookie wide receiver. I agree, I agree with you.
But there are, trust me, there are people that are going to be
mad about this. Stage I I believe let me let me
let me check so I don't say something that is is totally non
true. I believe he has fewer fantasy
points than Xavier Worthy. That's probably close, but where
he hasn't played yet tonight, maybe on a points per game basis
or something. Yeah, so actually we'll jump to
this. The the independent panel of
judges also submitted this slide, which I thought was
interesting usually. Oh wow, the Jeff is normally
don't submit additional slides. No, they usually don't.
I think because Pat or P120K they he must have paid extra for
this. But yeah, this is Marvin
Harrison Junior versus a cohort of mystery players.
Yeah, I guess Pat, do you does this look like a fair
statistical cohort like Marvin Harrison junior kind of the
middle yards for route run. These guys very similar targets
for route run, very similar points per game, also very
similar, like if you want to argue the spike week point with
Marvin Harrison Junior. These other guys also have had
similar amounts of spike weeks in Yeah, spike, spike quarters,
Yeah. Does this look like a fair set
of comparisons patch? Sure.
Yeah, it seems fair enough. Go ahead.
OK, cool. Yeah.
So again, I didn't, I didn't make
this slide the the Independent. Judges.
Together but. We found our new T Higgins.
It was, it was it's it's Quentin Johnson having a better yards
for route run for me that I just.
I know it's too much. It's too much.
Oh my God. Yeah.
T Higgins too good for this chart this year.
No, he couldn't. He doesn't fit.
I I almost put T Higgins like 2021 stats on this or something
like that, but. Couldn't quite do it.
Yeah, my honest take on this is like he's playing the Rams and
this is the funniest thing. He's playing the Rams in Week
17. So what's going to happen is
he's going to go for 100 yards and two touchdowns versus the
Rams and no one, no one's going to be able to admit that they
were wrong about Marvin Harris on whatever side you're on.
You're going to think you were so right for targeting in the in
the first round because he had that spike week in Week 17.
If you were fading him, you're going to think you're so right
because you basically got fancy Quentin Johnson, Cortland son
out of him on a season long basis.
And we're going to go we're going to go into next season and
no one's going to be willing to agree.
He's going to be a 12 turn pick again and we're going to do this
thing all over again. So that's that's my take in
Marvin Harrison Junior is people are going to be stuck in their
corners on this one, but I don't know.
Yeah. Pat, what do you think?
Like stripping the irony out of Marvin Harrison?
What is your actual take on him so far this season?
Yeah, I mean, I think Marvin Harrison was kind of the poster
boy for this like thing we're all trying to figure out in
basketball mania, which is that like the end of season
production is just infinitely more valuable than the regular
season production. And you know, how how do we
weight that when we're drafting teams and putting teams
together? I do think that, you know, if
you're, if you're have a a wide receiver on your team who's at
1.8 yards per outrun, is a big piece of his team's offense, has
competent quarterback play and is already achieved this despite
being a rookie. I think you're pretty excited
about that, even if you had to pay the 2O2 to get them.
You know, I, I really don't think like he's in many, there's
many players. I'm like, God damn it, I have
this guy. I don't think he's really one of
those guys. Now there's other guys you'd
rather take it. It's more about who you took
over him than what he has done. Himself, sure, but most of the
players aren't wide receivers so it's probably more maybe more of
a larger structural. Thing, Nico Collins and Drake
London were the next two wide receivers out for him.
Yeah, Nico for sure. Drake London you'd rather have.
Yeah, no, I agree. I mean, I think he, it felt
steamy. At the same time, I was just
like, I'm not going to be out on this guy because, you know, he
could just be the dude. I don't think he's the dude
right now. But you know, CD Lamb had 1.8
yards per outrun in his rookie season or close to that in that
range. Lots of guys who go on to be
superstars are produced similarly, you know, through
week nine of their rookie season to what Harrison has done.
So I'm still, you know, pretty bullish on what his career looks
like. Yeah.
But there's always going to be this thing like, if he doesn't
hit the ground running in a way that rookie wide receivers
rarely do, ironically, even like neighbors did just that.
But if he doesn't do that, then it's going to be like, what are
we doing? And to your point, Sam, it's
just going to come down to what what his playoffs are like,
which is not, you know, it's like a really difficult way to
judge. But, you know, I do think he's,
I do think that even, you know, with this price, he's probably
more likely to be peaking at the end of the season than some than
some veterans, you know, because he his role can continue to
grow. Yeah.
So that's where it's just, it's, it was always going to be a
difficult eval because it was an insane price to pay relative to
what we've done historically. I I give Davis credit for making
the stand on it though, because it was not.
We just basically no one wanted. To be.
A Marvin Harrison Bear. No one wanted to put their name
to this take. So I think if if we're giving, I
think an A minus is too that's too kind as far as the the way
the takes played out because I don't think he's been
spectacularly overdrafted relative to the results, leaving
aside the comps that Sam put together.
But I do think that taking a stand against Harrison was
something no one wanted to do. And so I'm OK with the grade
factoring that part of it in. Yeah, I, I don't disagree with
anything you said. I think we, we've we've hashed
this out before on like the the late season rookie spike thing
and I've laid out why. I guess I just don't see like
why is Marvin Harrison more likely to be spiking the
playoffs than Drake London or Nico Collins?
Like these are also young players in the rookie contracts.
Like are they, do they have any like bench risk or something
like that that's going to prevent them from spiking the
playoffs? So that's a part of it that I.
And it gets up this high. I hear what you're saying.
Yeah. Yeah.
That's what I was never sold on. And like also the data backs us
up like Jack, Jack Miller's done articles on this that showed
actually it's the the later. He just does it by ADP, not like
draft capital or anything like that.
It would be interesting to actually do it by like NFL draft
capital. He just does it by like ADP of
where the rookies are taken. And he's shown that the last
5-10 years that the rookies that actually spike at the end of the
season are the later round rookie wide receivers, not the
ones that go in the 1st 8 rounds.
Now can you find examples of guys that spiked the end of the
season that were earlier around that?
Certainly. Can.
Definitely makes sense to me the way the NFL is played now where
these rookies just hit the ground running right away.
Right, right. That that makes total sense to
me. Like Marvin Hearson, Junior and
Lake Neighbor started their first NFL games.
Exactly, Yeah. I do think it's something to
like, if you look at kind of the way that offense is designed,
who you know, it's right now, I think McBride is the number one
in that offense. And you're if you take a guy who
is, you know, the number 2 on their offense, you're much more
likely to have that change in your guys favor if he's a rookie
or maybe a second year player over the course of that season.
I think that's that's kind of part of it for me is like Malik
Neighbors is not like he's already the dude.
So like his upside is just kind of is what it is now.
Like he's essentially Malik neighbors became a veteran in
like one week, you know, but Harrison is still in some ways a
Rook, even though it's playing time reflects that of a veteran
because I think at the end of the season, it's possible that
like he has emerged as like their clear go to weapon in a
way that he really isn't. Right now.
It's more McBride. Here's the the last thing I'll
say on this is like the Kyler stuff and you can debate if you
know Kyler's bomb is a little harsh.
I think it is fair to say that the Kyler Marvin Harrison junior
connection is not something it's a work in progress.
And I can also make the argument that like stylistically, I'm not
sure Marvin Harrison with his ability to like win on crossing
routes over the middle, which has been kind of underutilized
anyways, has not been a great fit with Kyler Murray, who's not
good at throwing the ball over the middle.
Like everyone saw the Trey McBride wide open end zone look
this past week, like literally Tyler Murray either couldn't see
him because he's too short to see over the lineman or his
vision at looking at players over the middle of field is not
good. So I just think like when you're
talking about a first round fantasy pick, you need so many
factors to to go right. You need the player to be
awesome. You need him to have awesome
chemistry with his quarterback. Like you, you know a lot of
things to go right. And even if you thought Marvin
Harrison junior is some unquestioned generational
superstar prospect, like, I don't know, I guess like give me
the wide receiver that already has proven that connection with
this quarterback and Nico Collins or or give me the wide
receiver with a much more experienced pocket passing
quarterback and Kurt Cousins and Drake London.
So I I don't know, I just think like the Kyler part of this was
like a little under. The stuff do the Kyler's a bum
people I I'm just wondering like are they able to see the final
scores of games? Like do they?
I don't agree with Kyler as a bomb for.
The rest like or or do you guys have access to like divisional
standings or like betting odds or?
Like EPA? Have none of that has reached
your corner of the Internet yet? It'll get there someday.
Standing standings. Like running back quarterback
8IN EPA or something. Just like might be might be
interesting for you to. I don't learn to read, learn to
read. I mean, Kyler has his flaws.
Like he's a very frustrating quarterback.
He looks like he's quarterback 12 and EPA for play.
Hire them Holmes. He's hire them, Holmes.
Interesting. All right, we'll go on here to
Pat stake another Cardinals player, he said.
Quote, I'm not sure Trey McBride is that good.
And then the argument I think Pat and you can correct me if
I'm wrong, is that he he looked to you like potentially just a
product of weak target competition in Arizona in 2023
and 2022 with Zacker, it's Ron Delmore, Michael Wilson,
etcetera. I thought this comment was funny
from the truth serum take. So the top comment.
I physically threw tomatoes at my TV screen when Pat said that
awful Tray McBride take. Pat, what are your thoughts on
on this one? The the main issue at this take
is that Tray McBride is good and so it just makes it hard to
defend the take. Yeah, generally if you say guys,
MIDI should. Not that rushing that rushing
touchdown yesterday. Yeah.
Well, of course. And, and you know, I mean, look,
obviously like Kyler sucks so bad he couldn't throw it to him.
Like clearly, clearly Kyler's just a bum.
So they had to give him a crat a rushing touchdown.
Right. Yeah, I had James Conner in the
DFS lineup that missed, missed the cash line by a point.
So that didn't hurt at all. But yeah, not me, who cares.
But no chair McBride is good. His yards per hour on is
actually slightly higher this year than was last year.
We didn't have any turn competition.
He's I think the number one right now ahead of Harrison,
which is impressive even if Harrison eventually overtakes
him. Like I don't think he needs to
keep as a tight end. I don't need he think he needs
to like play the whole season as the clear number one over a
generational wide receiver prospect to, you know,
completely sync my my mid take. So yeah, I don't really have
much of A defense. Yeah, yeah.
I mean you, if you had just picked Dalton Kincaid or Sam
Laporta, you had a lot of options here to.
Well, I think I did. I give it to this take into sort
of an defense of Marvin Harrison.
Is that like part of the reason that we're?
Got it. We're, you know, saying, oh,
he's going to be overdrafted is because of Trey McBride, but
like, well, Trey McBride was just in the right place at the
right time. Turns out that.
Was I will, I will agree with you there, because I was
rewatching the show today. This looked like a take you
really didn't want to give. Like you had you had something
else queued up. And then because we were
talking, talking about Marvin Harrison Junior, that pulled
this one out. Of you.
It was a truth truth serum take. I was on truth serum and they
Davis made me think of this and I had to say it.
I didn't want to say this. OK, this is the way truth serum
works. You have to say what comes into
your mind. Exactly.
Now, if, if all of our truth serum takes were good, then that
would be bad. That would actually show that we
were being dishonest as fantasy analysts.
You got to have some. You got to have some bad takes
in the back of your mind. There you don't want to say.
Yeah, unfortunately the panelists did.
Yeah, they asked to see you after class.
I don't really know what that means.
Oh, you're playing pickleball again?
What's going on? Yeah, they they were not too
kind on this one. Yeah.
Davis, any final words here before we move on?
He really should have just done Dalton Kincaid because that is
just like he, you know, it's like.
It was right there. Dunking on Dalton Kincaid now is
like you're you're just the globetrotters and he's the
Washington generals. It's like the it's like the
easiest layup you can make as a fantasy analyst now.
Yeah. He's yeah.
These are called intrusive thoughts, Pat.
And no, you don't have to say them.
You do want fruit syrup. That's the whole point.
The truth of thought serum is it would be another name for it.
And people thought the truth serum thing was just like a bit
like, no, we actually had real doctors comment and checked us
with. Just just off screen, I was,
there was an IV of truth serum flowing into my veins so that I
didn't, I was worried I would only say the truth serum stuff
at the beginning of the stream, but it was flowing.
It was flowing the whole stream. It was flowing the whole stream.
So anyway, Speaking of shitting on Don Kincaid, wow, another
another good take for me. That's so surprising that my
final show trying to bring up all my good takes that.
This was this is by far the worst of your takes because you
had to take George Kittle and Elite.
OK, I might have. It's ridiculous.
It was absolutely. Ridiculous I have to use the CNN
debate rules in this one, but this is what I said.
That you're getting this off before Kelsey.
Plays a point .3 ADP difference was enough to distinguish the
the tier for. Let's let's not get bogged down
in semantics. Let's just go with what the
fact. Let's go with the facts of what
I actually said. This, this is the facts of what
I actually said. I said straight up in points,
not not even cost adjusted. I'd say the tight end 7 through
12. You can bicker on 7 verse 6.
Fact of it is the ADP markets on all the major fantasy websites
that ranked George Kittle as the tight end 7.
I'm sorry they did that. I don't think that was right,
but but they did. I said I'd straight up prefer
the tight end 7 through 12 in raw points over the tight ends
one through 6. And as a result of that, because
I prefer their points straight up and you can draft them later,
that makes the tight end 7 through 12 much better picks on
a cost adjusted basis than tight ends one through 6.
Fast forward to week 8, top three of the top four tight ends
are in that tight end 7 to 12 range.
Some of the major boss have come in that tight end one to six
range, most notably I'd say Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorte.
LaPorte has been like the biggest boss because he was
first and then varying degrees of boss for Andrews Kincaid.
I mean, honestly a just a real suck out on Andrews that he's
not the biggest bust. God, he's not going to start her
basically and somehow not the biggest early tight end bust.
So. Touchdowns are the only thing
that matters at the position. Yeah, but yeah, I mean the
judges agreed with me again. I, I don't know, I mean.
You got to give yourself the minus for your for your little
your little George Kittle. That was so silly.
I don't get the George Kittle thing because I'm not trying to
get bogged down whether you call him an elite tight end or not or
or whatever, but like, it was true, he was the tight end 7,
right? I know, but it was sort of like
there was a group of this early group that he was clearly a part
of and then there was a secondary group behind him.
So it's a just like sliver him off and put him into a bucket
that he wasn't being drafted as was always a little bit of a,
you know, it was good. He was a, you know, credit to
you for, for making sure you did that.
But I always thought it was like sort of a silly framing of the
argument because we're taking, you know, anyone drafting these
early guys was pretty much into all the the early tight end
thing or the elite tight end thing.
We have to say early, because none of them are producing
anything, is that, you know, we want to be mixing up our bets to
some extent and making sure we're drafting these guys
because we saw it as a big opportunity.
And so Kittle would always been part of that group in that in
that strategy where a guy like in joke, it would not have been
Bowers was, but he wasn't a part of the elite tight end strategy.
Yeah, yeah, I guess my thing is that like, and I could be wrong
and I could be paraphrasing people, I think like the elite
tight end proponents were more so saying like you got to attack
all the top seven tight ends, like to an equal degree.
I'm not saying people don't have their their own player takes,
but like the elite tight end take was like all these guys are
huge values. They're all way underpriced
compared to last year. You got to hammer these top
seven tight ends. And I thought that was wrong
because it didn't factor in like how flat tight end one through
12 was and that you should actually like semi fade soft
target some of the top six, but like go way after like kind of
play chicken at the position and then go really hard after
Bowers, Kittle and Joker. Those those are my top three.
Well, that's where I I see, I guess I see you're saying with
the Kittle thing of like Kittle with the last guy.
So you basically let Kittle fall into your lap in round 6 or
whatever. So from that perspective, it, it
fits the strategy. But it think to me, what makes
your take correct is that Bowers was sitting there and a Joku was
sitting there. I mean, Joku needed the Watson
injury to like really get there. But like he's going to get there
and Bowers was obviously Jameis. Jameis, he'll get there.
I mean, he's, he's going to get there like 2 weeks ago.
Like that was already huge, you know?
No, that's true. Yeah.
I wonder. I'm I'm currently concerned for
Tillman and Joku now that they might go to Dorian Thompson
Robinson cause Winston is is so brutal.
The the other thing with this TIG, the whole thing with the
elite tight end and the elite tight end stuff's not going to
work as well as I was hoping it was.
But it's important, I think, to realize, like what the point of
elite tight end is. Like, you know, I've written
about it and it just doesn't really help your advance rates.
And that's not the point of it. The point is not that it helps
your advance rates. In some seasons, it might hurt
your advance rates a little bit. This season might hurt your
advance rates a lot. But the point is that you're
drafting these guys who have ceilings that aren't really
available later. Now, I think Bowers specifically
would be the big counter to that.
Like we had a guy who's the best tight end prospect ever just
sitting there, you know, Browns after these guys are going and
he clearly has a ceiling a when you a fantasy playoff matchup
ceiling that would be in line with these elite today.
I mean, he's going to go like top 3-4 rounds next year.
I think pretty clearly, you know, so that's where I think
the I think Bowers is kind of the the the real king of your
take, because you didn't have to pay for the elite ceiling and
you still got it. And I think a joke of those
still gives you that. I think Ingram Ingram kind of
gives you a little bit of a of a spike week ceiling now with with
Kirk out. So that's that's part of the I
think as far as framing the win of your take, it actually is
like there were true ceiling tight ends available after the
elite guys guys haven't shown the weekly ceiling.
We were hoping for the most part.
Yeah, that that was the point of the take.
It wasn't saying that like the idea of getting tight ends that
have high ceiling is bad. My point is just that the way
that the fantasy market was ordering the top 12 tight ends
was just like straight up wrong. And I, I, I was consistent about
this all offseason. So it's not me trying to do some
revisionist history like the eight round, seven round gap
between Dalton Kincaid and David and Joku, like literally I
thought had zero foundation in fact or with what they did last
year. Like there there was a lot of
examples like that where I'm just like, these gaps make no
sense. And reflecting back on it, like
all those tight ends that went in rounds 345, that's where the
smash running back picks are available.
That's where Kenneth Walker, Joe Mixon, Pacheco probably on track
to do that before he got injured.
Like there were some land mines in there.
But like, I think going running back there, passing on like the
quote UN quote elite tight ends by ADP and then getting very
similar profiles later was what I was consistent about all
offseason. So that's my point is like, I'm
not trying to say elite tight end was bad.
I just think like this was a very unique tight end market
that called for a different strategy based on the profiles
that were available and where they were available.
And I, I think I got a ton of things wrong this season.
So I'm not trying to be like, Oh, I got everything right this
year, but I, I do feel like I got this pretty right, to be
honest. Like I, I don't know, but.
I I see what you're saying like, and some of these elite tight
ends are still very live for like Travis Kelsey can have a 30
point week in the playoffs. Might have a 30 point game
tonight after having a 30 point game last week.
Might be. Yeah, Kelsey, one is weird,
right? Because that's a little bit of a
suck out with the injuries, I think you have to admit, but.
Well, but Kittle but Kittle's upside is is much higher because
of injury like. Yeah, all these guys are that
that's a funny thing about all these tight ends is like, I
don't think elite tight end is any offenses like preferred
strategy going into the season. Like honestly, all these guys
have benefit from chaos and Joku from the Cooper trade, Bowers
from the Adams trade, Dallas Goddard had massive weeks when
their wide receivers were injured, Kate Alton massive
weeks when their top wide receivers are injured, Kelsey,
massive weeks when the wide receivers are injured.
So I think across the board these guys like benefit from
chaos a little bit because none of them maybe maybe McBride is
the exception. Like he's maybe the one guy that
going into the season, the teams like our plan is to make this
guy our number one. I don't think like any other
tight end, the team had that plan going into the season,
unless I'm missing somebody. But anyways, we got to move on
from this point. That's probably true.
Yeah, Ours ultimately turned out that way, but.
But it wouldn't have been. Yeah, exactly.
Yeah. Yeah.
All right, move on. Davis and Pat both had with
their shoes the serum take some version of I'm paraphrasing,
we've gone too far with zero RB. Davis's take, they were slightly
different. So I'll try to explain what I
heard when going back listening. Davis was basically saying some
of these dead zone running backs are going to be huge values.
He talked about in the segment, both hits and misses talked
about. ETN also talked about mix in
Kenneth Walker some of the guys who have the big hits Pats take
was. The all time interstellar meme.
Like God just shouting. Just please, for the love of
God, listen to yourself. Yeah.
You just watch yourself put down this take after the after the
stream and just. Continued I.
I put it down and then. I was like, you know who's a
good, you know who's a good pick?
Might as. Well, might as well take another
Jalen Jalen Wall or Saquon Barkley.
I don't know. Why don't I take the guy who's
never finished in the NFL game? Sure.
Why? Good stuff, good stuff.
Yeah. And Pat, just to finish it.
Pat, yours was slightly different, but I think kind of
similar more or less. You were saying people are a
little too rigid with wide receiver roster construction.
You were saying and advocating for trying out weirder builds.
You called it like one wide receiver through 4 rounds really
hammering some running backs, elite tight ends and such.
So yeah, you, I think you guys are both like very right on
this. It's a such a.
Great season, think was better than mine, 'cause mine was mine
was saying like draft wide receiver and then a running back
and then like Josh Allen and you know, you know, a tight end, the
draft Josh Allen decade or something like that.
It was like more, it would be like wide receiver, running back
Lamar Andrews would be more, more of kind of I think what I
was experimenting with. So yeah, Davis's take, I think
just take the running back, the dead zone running backs.
It was just a a cleaner and better take.
It if you, if you look at it, if you actually other than in round
one, if you just took the oldest running back in each round.
You. You won.
So not not not in run, but Barkley.
Henry. Mixon Kamara.
I guess that's not true in rounds.
Oh no. James Conner.
So. Reached for Kareem Hunt in round
8 I'd say. Yeah, Kareem Hunt, Zeke.
It stopped working right before Zeke.
That's why he. Don't he don't so, so basically
rounds 2 through 8, if you just instead of if the only metric
you knew was age and you just evaluated it via age and you
just took the oldest running back, you are winning this year.
It's. Crazy.
Yeah, and I was pretty consistent all offseason and
saying, yeah, make sure you get cream on in the 18th round in
every draft. Just really following this this
line of thinking, yeah, I don't know, man.
This is going to be like the Fast forward to 2025 offseason
debates, the debate over whether the wide receiver injuries like
caused all of this to happen or whether the dead zone running
backs are always going to be smash picks.
I think that's going to be an ongoing debate.
That'll be you want. To remind me of a little.
Bit interesting, yeah. Remember the year that Stefan
Diggs got traded to the Bills? It was an absolute smash, and we
kind of like had to rethink. I think there's one other
example of that that happened like the year before.
But Hopkins to the Cardinals is maybe around a similar time to
that. Yeah, it was something like but
he but digs that year had fallen because he goes to, you know,
play with Josh Allen and it's more uncertain.
And we have had a lot of research showing, you know, why
receivers changing teams was bad.
And he goes on and he just goes nuts.
And this went like one of the picks, I think he was in the
fifth round that year was nuts. So it is a little like Barkley
goes to the Eagles and I you know, the market did a good job
of being like, no, no, no, like it's Barkley.
He's on the eagles good offensive line.
They like to run. He's going to smash.
I was not in on that. He's crushing the Henry one.
I mean that one is just even his age.
It's like harder to see how it would pan out as well as it's
panned out. But I do think like there's an
element to like and again, the market did a good job actually
of pricing this in. But like the upside that that
created was definitely I undercounted the upside element
there too focused on the downside of 30 year old running
back hasn't been very efficient for two seasons, you know,
changing teams in a good spot. But like, are we really going to
get what is he going to run for like 2000 yards?
Like, come on. Yes, he is, yeah.
He's got 1000 yards already, the Derrick Henry. 31 year old 31
year old Henry Round 2 next year.
It's crazy. Yeah, yeah, he's on a one year
contract, right. I'm I'm.
Somehow going to find a way to lose more money next year than
this year. It's going to be.
It's going to be really. Something I'm actually I'm
starting to get kind of bullish on my basketball portfolio now
I'm I'm digging out. It's been good.
I'm every every week I'm getting.
We're we're too far. We're too far behind.
Like I just got a literal 30 point game from Chase Brown.
He was the second highest scoring running back of the
week. Did not did not change my
advance rate. No, I changed mine.
Not even not even one more team. I recommend a lower advance rate
so that it can be changed more. That's good.
Well, the Chiefs, the Chiefs also have not played yet, so
maybe, maybe after, right? Can you imagine a world where
Mahomes goes 303 in a game? I mean, me personally, I can't,
but it would be something. You need Noah great to have 100
yard game if that's going to happen.
And I just I don't see that. I I think Pat, getting back to
your point of like, what did we learn from all this?
This is like firing from the hip a little bit.
I think maybe what I learned is like the advanced running back
stats and projecting running back efficiency, like be willing
to accept huge error bars when there's massive changes in
situation for players. I think that was maybe a little
bit under not not really underrated by the market like
cuz again, I think the market pricing Barkley, that's what
made this. Tough is that these guys were
expensive, so the error bars pointed to baiting them.
You know, we're like, I don't know, Barkley's hard for me cuz
I. Just Barkley's gonna.
Fade the next Barkley? I'm gonna fade the next Barkley.
The next Henry in the third rounds, maybe.
Although is there a next Henry? Who is the next Derrick Henry?
Yeah, it'll be it'll. Be Barkley on his, It'll be
Barkley on his next team. Yeah, but he's, I mean, yeah, I
guess, but. Barkley, when he's 31, playing
for the Texans or something, that's going to be the next one,
but I I think. There's something to be learned
from Barkley. There's nothing to be learned
from Henry. Like absolutely nothing.
I think there's a little to be learned Like, let's be honest,
like for a second of like the how our group of people thinks
about Derrick Henry is that at least in half PPRI think we've
been wrong about him for a while and been unwilling to accept
like what a crazy outlier he is Now.
Maybe we were. We were finally, finally right
to fade him last year when the wheels fell off in Tennessee.
But it was a stretch of like four years running.
Or just like, oh, Derek Henry can't be that efficient, can't
score that many touchdowns, and he's doing.
It well, that's I think there's more to learn from Henry than
Barkley, because Henry. Was cheap.
Barkley was never cheap. You know, maybe he was cheaper
than not. Maybe he was cheaper than he
should have been, right? But he was never cheap.
And he so to me, you were buying like a big upside scenario that
like checked a lot of very specific boxes, you know,
because like he's still, even though he he catches every
reception he has, goes for a touchdown, which is especially
tilting because he's like not actually involved in the
receiving game except when he catches a touchdown.
But you needed him to like kind of it was a narrow path.
Now the path doesn't look narrow because he's awesome, right?
And he's jumping over dudes backwards, you know, So it
doesn't it, it looks quite robust given how given how
talented he is. But from this summer, you know,
I was like, basically, I lose if Barkley lights the Internet on
fire every week because he's just that good.
And here he is doing that and I've lost that bet, So.
But I think to me, I was put like, if you're going to put me
in a position where I'm like, I only really feel like I'm losing
this bet is if if this guy's like clearly the most talented
running back in the league despite him not profiling like
that for several seasons. Like, but going back to 2018 is
the last time we would have really evidence that he's that
good. So I'm just going to bet against
him being that good. And then if he is that good, I'm
going to have to eat a bunch of crow.
Well, we got any more crow left? I think we're all out of crow.
No, there's more. There's a whole heap thing
helping. I'm going to be eating some more
later. But you know, it's like we're
never going to be right about everything.
We're going to be wrong about most things.
And for me, Barclays, it's like in order for me to be like
really wrong, like he just has to be so good.
And I'm going to bet against that.
Henry, because he was cheaper. He didn't even have to be so
good. Now he is good, but he could
have been worse than he is and still hit.
So for yeah, for me, I think the big lesson is, is and this kind
of the thing I'm always trying to dial in with best ball is
just like price. Like, how much?
What am I? What do I need for this price?
What what am I want? What types of risk should I be
willing to accept at this price? And I think Henry showed like
that, the upside that he still had on a really good offense on
a team we know, would, you know, love to have a guy like Derrick
Henry running like this, that that upside was still worth more
than I gave it credit for. Yeah, I think that makes sense.
And Berkeley is like maybe it's own separate discussion.
I think maybe the bigger lesson with these running backs is like
the guys going in round 3456 just because like, OK, just
looking back at the final WrestleMania ADP, Joe Mixon,
just to call out one example, he was the running back 15 going at
pick 64 by the end of the season.
That that seems crazy to me. He was going around like the
wide receiver 404142 like. I was taking some Mixon.
I just wish I took more, you know?
Yeah, same for me. I have overweight Mixon, but I
wasn't like, oh, Mixon's one of my priority targets by any
means. I think I'd have something 8 to
10%, something like that. But it's just like, OK, once
you're comparing running back 15 versus wide receiver 40, like
The thing is like in 2023, but like it still was right to like
roster construction wise, like take the wide receiver 35 over
the running back 16. Like that's kind of how it
played out, but it is a little crazy when you think about it in
1/2 PPR site to say, you know, I I want to take the wide receiver
40 over the running back 15 like that.
That I think went a little bit too far, especially because at a
certain point the wide receivers, I think do kind of
flatten out once you get like wide receiver 40 through like
60, like that's pretty flat, but the running backs actually fall
off a Cliff. Like Joe Mixon has a running
back 15 to like Jonathan Brooks is the running back 30.
Like that is much more massive drop off than you know, Deonte
Johnson as the wide receiver 38. Rashid Jahid as the wide
receiver, 54 still. Market things at play like
you're not coming back from being dead at wide receiver
either. Right, that is the problem.
That's this is and it's just like I, I, I'm truly like,
honestly, this conversation, no one, almost no one is ready to
earnestly have the conversation and just understand like it's
just one slate, man. It's just it's one, it's it's 1
slate. It's playing out this way.
What if Joe Mixon was Cam Akers? Cam Akers was, I believe the
same exact. I believe he was the running
back 15 last year was basically the worst pick on the board and
to to pretend this was always the way it was going to happen.
Barkley was always going to smash.
Henry was always going to smash. The running backs were always
the best picks. I just it, it's just, I mean,
it's frankly, it's just not true.
Like really is. Is well also, yeah.
And The thing is that like, even if it is true that that Barclay
was always going to smash because it's hard to see him
playing like this and not think he's always going to smash.
But you know, he does have to stay healthy.
And and, you know, some of the stuff is like, you know, guys
who got hurt that is just really ruined the season for them.
That and people that drafted them, you know, like there was
she rice thing, like there was she rice injury changes so much,
you know, so that type of stuff, like Even so, of course, like it
kind of only it can't play out one way because the injuries
get, you know, they're so fluky. But even if it was, then the
prices change and we have to like figure out how to do this
all again. And that's where it being 1
slate is so key like that the prices all change and figuring
out what to do relative to those prices becomes a new puzzle.
I think one of the takeaways for me though, with the you make the
point about the wide receivers being flat and everything.
I have no regrets about taking Jaden Reed.
You know, when I took Jaden Reed, that's a guy.
I'm like, you know, there was it felt a little Nico Collins E or
Rashi Ricey and sort of like we're we're making excuses why
we shouldn't buy into what this guy did in a in a situation that
we're excited about. And I had some hesitation with
Rita. I wasn't like hammering him, but
like he also was a very talented rookie, kind of a classic second
year breakout. And we're going much cheaper
than some of the other upside at the position.
I do have regrets about taking, you know, more Keenan Allen
there. You know, like there's, there's
like a lot. Of my a lot of my regrets are
bears related to be. Honest, yeah, Bears, Bears
related takes. Yeah, I think the the hunt for
wide receiver upside in that range was was a worthwhile
exercise. The once like once like kind of
the the tear breaks had occurred of like potential number one
options on their offense are gone and you're like going for
like number twos on their offense.
Now. This is how funny this shit is,
right? Chris Godwin would have been an
example of that and he's it's yeah, was the giga smash before
he broke his ankle. So but I think the I I do want
to look more at like if running back prices or anything like
last year, I don't want to just be like thinking I'm hitting a
single or a double at wide receiver, you know, in the in
the early fifth round. I need to be swinging for the
fences still. Or just pivot.
Just pivot and grab a running back.
You know, if there's a running, if there's a clear starter
available who doesn't completely suck, you know, I think that
that would be the lesson for me. My last one, this I think the
Chris. Oh, sorry.
Go ahead, Davis, if you had something.
Well, I did just want to make the point about next year,
people like us who are like, I want to take a 29 year old
running back on his third team in the fourth round.
We're we're about to get saved by the rookie running back class
like we are. We are about to be big time
bailed out from our predilections by the quality of
running back coming in. There's going to be a first
round running back drafted. So take a backfield right now
that maybe we're not interested in, add a first round rookie
there. Jonathan Brooks will be healthy
next year and they'll be a different coaching staff and
quarterback in Carolina. So that'll bring a high-priced
running back that we all kind of like.
And then they're going to be probably, I don't know, five day
2 running backs. I would think maybe more
honestly, it's a very strong running back class.
So we are, we are, you know, we, we are going to kind of quinch
on Judkins, our situation out here.
So instead of having to take DeAndre Swift on the Bears, we
might be able to get to take Caleb Johnson, this rookie
running back for Iowa on the Bears.
Gotcha. Although I as we know these guys
always go somewhere where there is a guy that we like.
That's the way this works. That's kind of it's kind of
Ashton, Gene T first round running back Atlanta Falcons put
it on the card right now. That would be hilarious.
Oh my God. What what's going to happen is
Rashad White's going to get traded tomorrow and then it's
going to be Bucky Irving installed as the as the
Buccaneers start and then they're going to take a first
round running back. That's the 190 lbs.
I'm fine, fine. Passing them on to the next
person. Yeah, Last, last thing I.
Wanted to say here that. Pat's Chris.
Goblin point got me thinking about is just that it's like I
think in the day and age of underdog fantasy where it's, you
know, calling it an efficient market is a bit extreme, but it
it's much more efficient than I think fantasy markets have been
10 years ago, five years ago to the point where like the
so-called market trends, like, you know, draft rookies because
they have late season upsider draft second year players
because they can break out in much bigger ways.
Like all those things. It's not like they're not true,
but they're just much more baked in than I think they ever have
been before. So the game of fantasy football,
in my opinion, is no longer as simple as taking like these
sweeping market heuristics and applying them like peanut
butter, spreading them over the the whole pair player pool and
drawing lessons based on that. Like I think it has gotten to
the point where it's much more like player by player, like
evaluate each team differently, each player on a, you know,
player by player basis. I'm not sure making this point
very eloquently, but. It's just to say, like I, I'm a
little bit skeptical of these market trends, like as the way
to think about fantasy football going forward.
Like I, I do think you got to think through each player
individually because I think a lot of that stuff has gotten
baked in. No that that I agree with.
Just the idea like second. Year wide receiver breakouts
name your name, your rule name, your name, your heuristic of
choice. It's it's priced in to some
degree. Great, great comment here.
The orthodoxy creates its own inefficiency.
I think that's pretty evidently true.
It's obviously most true in the game that we are talking about
on underdog where the orthodoxy is like literally the point to
play the game like people are like people are like, oh, you
know, you got it. If if you're on underdog, like
you can't get buried by the avalanche, don't get don't get
buried by the avalanche on on underdog.
So that that reinforces itself again, I do just want to make
the point that whatever was going to happen this year or
has. Happened was.
Not always going to happen. I, I would just like you go go
look at a weekend of your DFS results, good, bad, indifferent
and then just look at a winning. Line up and.
Then look at like, oh, what had that great example if that
Seahawks game does not go if, if Pukunakuwa doesn't punch a
defender in the helmet, did the did the Seahawks ever get close?
Does Kenneth Walker get to 25 rushing attempts?
Does Injigba score? Does he get what did he get 8
second-half targets? Whatever it might be, Go look at
the micro things that close and then realizing that we are doing
the same thing on a grand scale of being like, well, you know,
why does Rashi Rice was always Mahomes was always going to tear
out Rashi Rice's ACL on an interception.
Isaiah Pacheco was always going to break his leg.
Obviously Kareem Hunt was always going to lead the AFC in rushing
touchdown. Joe Mixon was always going to
succeed with the Texans. There was no universe where Joe
Mixon who looked beyond cooked in his last year's Cincinnati
Bengals was always going to be great.
That was that was obvious. Crystal Ave. was always going to
get injured. There's never a season where
Crystal Ave. would not get injured.
Yeah. And I think the the other thing
that's. Funny about you know when you.
Compare it to the DFS slates. It's like what everyone else has
changes so dramatically like. We're only competing against.
Other people so like the hits that people get and the way you
could put teams together, you know, and the weeks in which
those players score points so they hit like they remember.
Josh Jacobs was the was the nuts and then he didn't score any
points in the playoffs. Justin Jefferson was the nuts
the year I won and he had his worst game of his entire career
in Week 17. That's just blind dumb luck,
right? There's no rhyme or reason to
that. It's just, you know, weird stuff
happens in DFS. Like I think this is drive that
point home. Like I've scored, I've scored
like 158 points in my best lineup this week.
Didn't cash. I score like 159 points two
weeks ago, finished fourth in I scored 200 points, you know, in
week three I was like finished 250th in in a tournament.
Like it just what everyone else has is going to change the the
type of teams that other people built with that player pool, the
combos right, the the type of like the people who were
drafting Henry were also tending to draft this guy and he's
either stayed healthy or not. I have a very.
I have a very good example of
this. The Derrick Henry.
Drafter you can look it up on. BBM right now was about 75% more
likely to take Zac Moss than Chase Brown, which is just an
example of like OK they got. One right and then?
They missed the other completely.
They were not even close. They weren't even close to
directionally accurate. But you know it.
It doesn't matter because that's it's just the way it plays out.
But it doesn't it doesn't mean that the Derrick Henry and the
Alvin Kamar drafters were omniscient.
You know it just like this late, it worked out for them.
I'm. Happy for them, I hope that.
It's not working out for me. I'm not going to make any money.
It is the way it is, you know, Yeah, it's so it's so tough to
evaluate, especially like. All this reiterate, reiterate
here like how many awesome wide receiver picks are out for the
season both early round and late round.
We talked about Chris, Chris Godwin, Rasheed Rice, Rasheed
Shaheed, Nico Collins for half the season.
There's there's more I'm not thinking of right now.
Cooper Cup. You can even say for half, half
the season he's looked very good when he's been out there ton
tons of them. Like you can go on and on.
And in terms of running backs, it's I think really only been,
you know, Joe Mixon missed about a month, Jonathan Taylor missed
about a month. Isaiah Pacheco is maybe missing
2-3 months. Yeah, CMC 2.
So, so there have been some certainly, but just in terms of
season, like I think there's been zero season ending injuries
to running backs, unless you're going to say Pacheco's season
ending, which is a little up in there right now compared to wide
receivers. There's been much more.
So that's a bit of an outlier. Like even if I think the the 0
running, it's more than a bit of an outlier the the devastation
of the wide receiver position and.
The total health of the running back position is I don't know if
we'll ever see anything like it again.
Yeah. Yeah, it's an.
Outlier I I do think. You can say like just to say the
other side of it, you look at the injury rate data, the
injuries to wide receivers and running backs hasn't been that
different historically. Like I think the narrative of
like, oh, running back is a minefield.
They get injured every single season and wide receivers stay
healthy. That's not really supported by
the data. But this is an outlier to the
point where it's swung like so drastically in the other
direction where it's a huge outlier.
So it's so tough to evaluate, like if you had a portfolio with
a ton of Rashid Rice, a ton of Rashid Shaheed and a ton of
Isaiah Pacheco or something like that, you're going to get beat
down this year, even though that was probably a decent strategy,
right? So at least stop bullying Davis.
Yeah, it's yeah. It's yeah, it's it's tough.
It's a, it's a tough game we play.
Yeah, no, I, it's been tough. I I I'd love a sliding glass
doors. On what the Chiefs offense.
Would have been like had Hollywood never gotten injured.
Like was I really so wrong? Like they they actually were
going to be terrible regardless. There was no universe where they
were going to be good. Or was the Hollywood injury and
having to use Justin Watson? Was that really kind of the
moment that they just decided like, well, you know, time,
time, time to shut it down time, that time to be the the 2017
Patriots. That's so tough.
I think they would have been really fun pass offense.
But we'll never, we'll never know.
We'll see. We'll see as well.
I mean, we'll, it's a it's a crazy.
Variant game we play feels like so clear what's worked and what
matters. It's week 9.
We just finished week 9. Yeah, like what?
What's it what mattered in 2024 best ball?
We have no idea exactly. We still don't know because it
it's ultimately going to come down to what happened in week.
15. 16 and 17 and like, probably, right, If you were
making bets on what matters, you know you would much you're
Barkley and Henry are locks to have mattered.
Camaro is a lock to have mattered because he's going to
power so many teams to those weeks in the 1st place.
But fundamentally, like the way we look at this season and think
about like what really mattered. We still just don't know that
yet. Yeah, I'll say like, yeah, the
only reason it sounds. Like a post mortem in the fan.
Season is because I'm leaving so I wanted to do this, but that's
a that's a really good point that like this is not the
perfect time to have this conversation Very long season.
Like yeah, we're basically halfway through the season.
That's kind of crazy to think about.
It feels like towards the end, but it's it's not really at all.
So ton ton left to be played here.
I think that'll wrap up our review of the true serum takes.
I'd give us an overall, I'd say the independent panel that
reviewed this gave us overall AB plus on these true serum takes.
Did the overall panel name an MVP of the group or we were all
just treated equally? It it was pretty clear, but we
don't need to kind of get. Into that, it's not really the
point of the show about who had the best takes on the episode
that kind of mattered the most. I would say it's not.
It's not. Yeah, drafting, I think by the
time we gave those takes or or no.
Interesting. Yeah.
A lot of people have told me that that was the episode that
kind. Of they think about most in
terms of like who had the best takes and in the whole run of
the show. Yeah, the whole I know it's
weird, I wouldn't have guessed it either.
But yeah, we got it. We got to close.
Final, final segment, then we'll get out of here.
Pat, we're checking in on the health of Justin Fields
hamstring. I know you've consulted a lot of
medical experts about this. What?
What is your diagnosis for his hamstring injury going forward?
It's still hurting. Hamstring injury is still
hurting a little bit. But here's the thing.
I made two bets on just. I didn't draft that much Justin
Fields, Ironically, because I was drafting so much Drake May
that I never really drafted that much Fields.
I honestly felt pretty nervous about it entering the season.
I was like, I should have drafted more Fields, but I made
two bets on Fields. This is my skin in the.
Game was that fields will. Start week 1.
Obviously that was never in doubt.
Then the other bet. Is what I made with Leone that
he would start I? Believe week 14.
So I'm still feeling from from the hamstring check in of my
bags. I think the hammy's good.
I think he's good to go for the week 14 start that I need to
have the ultimate side bet suck out.
In fact, I hope his hammy doesn't kneel until the very end
of week 13. That's my New Hope I.
With how this has run out for you, I almost guarantee you're
going to win that bet against Leonie I.
Don't know how, it might be a Wildcat package on the 1st Dr.
of the game or something, but you'll find a way to to suck out
on that one as well. Yeah.
Oh, man. All right, let's see.
I actually did draft him. That's the the most frustrating
thing about all this is you guys.
Were just having like an argument and I was like drafting
him a ton. He's scoring points and before
before are we winding down? We have anything.
Anything else we wanted to cover I I was going to kick it to you
guys to talk about future for the.
Show unless you had something else.
We'll, I think we'll, we'll make there's tune back in.
Next Monday and we'll we'll communicate what we're doing.
We'll have we'll have something. We'll have something.
You'll have something. There will be some.
Maybe we'll have, maybe we'll have a guest.
Maybe we won't, but. We'll have something.
Before we go though, shout out to.
Zach Landers, who's helped us so much with the intro and and you
know everything along the way. Some of the clips you guys have
seen one more here for before we get out of here.
Hello everyone and welcome to a special.
To a special. To a special in the final ADP
chasing show. For years we've been chasing
ADP's. A journey filled with laughter.
Look how long this is. Heated debates.
This is an argument like a tree lap on a high.
Ankle sprain for cup. Like that is.
I'm saying if it makes it. Part of a good argument that's.
Fine, you're allowed to lie on it.
As Sam Sherman embarks on a new chapter, we bid farewell to the
greatest. And the targets per outrun
leagues that's going to. Be really nice on his like 11
routes per. Game that's well Zach Wilson's
better in the cold than two of my thing with JSN I think is
like I saw the worst JSN takes on my timeline and now I'm just
arguing against the straw man and that's why I won the bet
regardless of the outcome. I got it in cow pits is that
kind of guy. He was close to producing
Cadarius Tony when they're at Florida together.
He didn't quite do it, but that definitely shows a level of
untapped upside that you definitely want to tight end
that this was a good thing that Keenan Allen was big.
I mean, he's training for the Will Disley role in Shane
Waldron's office. Sam, this is the perfect hyper
niche. Best full story for you?
Because it's just hating. I want to get a little bit into
Cooper cups drop off last. Year 32 year old wide receiver,
right? I just turned 31.
He's about to turn 33, you know, playing next.
To a fifth round rookie from. BYU here's why.
The fact that he was very worse category is a Oh my God every
time you see a mystery player and think it's.
Any guy that everyone says is bad, his stats are always better
than T. Higgins, like T Higgins and DJ
Shark, we can move. Past this.
Christian Kirk comparison. Nothing.
Really big to see here every time you get into a heated 45
minute debate about Russell. Wilson and Justin Fields Let let
me cook you. You haven't seen Russell Wilson
versus Justin Fields. By the numbers yet, buddy, every
time you hear that's fair and wonder if it's derogatory, Yeah.
That's fair. The spirit of ADP chasing lives
on. So as we say.
Goodbye to Sam, let's continue to chase ADP's in his honor.
In the end, we are all going to fucking lose anyways.
That seems fair. Oh my God.
The T Higgins. Christian Kirk, that I don't.
Know why that one? Particularly that one.
'S so getting Rona pat, just being there for that one was a
really, really nice. That was really good.
Thank. Thank you, Zach.
Yeah, we'll get out of here on this.
Thanks. Thanks to everyone who joined us
on this ADP chasing journey. I've seen a lot of shout outs in
the comment sections and yeah, I just wanted to say I'd really
enjoy doing the show. I really appreciate everyone who
tuned in and had fun with us. I had a lot of fun and Pete's
here, so I'll let him. No, I just, I just had to.
Swing by at the end. To stay, thank you for.
All your work, ADP chasing, stat chasing, going way back, you
have been an awesome addition in foil and to all of our ship
chasing bullshit and madness and fun.
So, you know, thank you again and best of luck, you know,
pushing paper, pencils, whatever kind of stuff you're going to be
doing there. And yeah, dude, we're going to
miss you. You crush it on this show like
both just from an entertainment perspective and for the channel,
like the channel has grown because of the good work.
And you know, Pat and I and Gretch have never prepped for a
show. And you actually brought
PowerPoints and slides and it's like who knows?
So true. Who knows.
It actually helps. Thank you.
We appreciate. You Thanks for you.
Yeah, I really appreciate that. Yeah, it's a ton of fun.
So I don't have much else to say, but I yeah, I'm going to
I'm going to miss this and we'll see.
Maybe maybe it's a Brett Farve, Tom Brady retirement 2026.
I'll pick up the please. You know, I'm never, never going
to rule anything out. So, well, we'll be here.
We'll be here. We'll we'll miss having say I'm
with this, but. Yeah, if you, if you're ever, if
you're trying to pull a Farve, you know where to find us.
Yeah, sounds good. Yes.
All right, we'll get out of here.
Peace.