Welcome, welcome. So where I know that I have a
been absent from this podcast for the last couple weeks and
now it's a my time to we're taking, I don't know, like maybe
pay some back a little bit. Yeah, he's not able to make it
this evening so it'll just be me and I will be taking this
podcast solo. So yeah, let's let's get into
it. I so obviously Sam, he's the,
he's the great chart person, he makes really, really beautiful
charts. And I for the most part cannot
do that. And so be a little bit of a mix
of like maybe some data tables and and some Excel charts and
but the information will be the same.
And so yeah, let's let's dig into this a little bit and This
is this, this is the same data that that we look at in the
charts. We've got adjusted yards per
attempt at which gives quarterbacks credit for
touchdowns and punishes or mark them down four interceptions.
So I guess we've been looking at this data all season.
So no surprise to see a true up the top and Jalen hurts Pat
Mahomes. And I guess one interesting
thing is like I suppose any Dalton is a lot higher than I
would have imagined and very, very close to the Joshua.
Allen doesn't have nearly the same amount of their pass
attempts, and and doesn't have the same rushing upside, and but
still interesting to see. And Trevor Lawrence obviously
played lights out and over the weekend.
And but it is still notable that his for the full season, his
adjusted yards per attempt has been pretty pretty average.
And and so that I guess that's important to keep in mind.
They kind of like temper expectations, a little bit just
because he did have the blow up game and maybe We shouldn't get
too carried away. And what else are we looking at
here? My quite coming back down to
reality a little bit and the you see the touchdown rate of those
two point three percent and not very good and but probably a lot
of that would be down to kind of small sample size stuff and
we're looking at just 130 pass attempts here.
And so, maybe, maybe that's some I guess like variants sort of
upside in that are maybe he will.
If let's say his true to generate should be tree or tree
and a half, maybe the is next. A couple of games will be more
fruitful for him and the receivers on the Jets are going
forward. And we've got a got that car
repair car, honestly a little bit.
Surprising to see be a 4.6 percent and a touchdown, right?
Which is pretty solid, and but still being pretty pretty
lackluster. And Russell Wilson just seven
yards, I just need yards per attempt.
No, surprise there. If you watch them and Justin
Herbert. Somebody else, who had a great
game at over the weekend. And but for the full season, six
point, eight adjusted yards for attend.
And I suppose some of that has been due to the injuries that
the Chargers have seen, and what still I would have expected him
to be more of this range. And I guess I did kind of gloss
over it. We've got Ryan Tannehill. here
at 7.9 adjusted yards per attempt, and Dad, I could be
encouraging. If trailing Burke's can get back
on the field and have like runtime of, it was a competent
quarterback. So that at, that could be
interesting and that maybe he can kind of facilitate some
trail on Burks their monster games in the playoffs stretch.
And what else are we looking at and Brock Purdy?
I guess, you know, for like he was Brooke.
Pretty was mr. Irrelevant right.
And for a very late, drafted rookie quarterback 6.7 just
yards per attempt is not bad and just see see a the Achievers
comment here. And yeah I would say that that's
solid push down, right. Definitely aided by having
Davante Adams for sure. I can only imagine what it would
look like if he was not there and was it Brock pretty and but
I supposed of given. Hello.
Hi Jimmy. Geez, adjusted yards per attempt
was and this is probably still like if Jimmy G is top 5
adjusted yards per tent or like in and around there because of
the weaponry and the offense of system.
And maybe six point seven is still not very good relative to
Dot and and probably not really a surprise to anybody and the
the Champs Watson and adding a little bit on the, on the
rushing yards and in around 30 yards for game, but these are /
really, really / numbers actually and 5.3, just you guys
pretend just a 11.6 touch that percent. push down right and
obviously he's taken some time off and but he hasn't played in
a while. What?
And What you call it just really really bad and not somebody that
I would consider arrests are double right now.
And so let's say, let's move on to the fit of running backs.
And so I did, I can't make all the charts started that sound
made, but I did make my best attempt to make the ones that I
can't. That I can make that my, that I
can make an Excel. and, Really interesting here with the the
what you call it and in the last since we 10 is how I've
calculated this and you've got John and Taylor James Conner.
I'm Josh Jacobs, really the kind of like tiered or own and in
team usage and so just a reminder on this, you've got
kind of like got And some uses this the super-secret and
program. He's got some Secret Sauce that
I guess not. Oh no the share.
I'll put it that way and But what was I talking about?
So we've got Jonathan Taylor and James Conner, Josh Jacobs.
And that's honestly I think that if you were to ask somebody at
the side of the Season would they be the tri-dot?
Our account at that are on the Hut on the field for product for
I guess, fantasy relevant in fantasy relevant ways at the
highest percentage of anybody else.
I would not have expected him Connor.
I'm Josh Jacob Has to be in that conversation.
And so just as a reminder, and we've got rushing attempts.
So what we take every play that a team run and is like, hey,
what percentage of those plays were rushing attempts for James
Conner and then what percent of those plays was he running a
route and so that way we get to see who is getting the highest
them work, share and on their team.
So, what else are we looking at here?
One thing that is I thought I do think is interesting, is that a
Dalvin cook? His, his share is quite good but
then you look at. So, we've got also got and
expected points. What kind of like expected Point
workload? Is that there's a snap share at
converting to, and it's about 15 expected points for a game.
And he's been under that, but 10/10 expected Merchants points
and five expected receiving points.
And so I do think that really kind of goes to show what a
tough year, it has been for kind of like getting concentrated
high-value touch at workloads and four running backs or yeah
particularly concentrated and Is notable product Christian
McCaffrey even though his is percent team.
Share is not a leap or are I guess.
Not in the top tier his expected points per game is still Elite
and behind. It's only behind Josh Jacobs,
believe it or not and that Austin Eckler.
And so, and that's not going to be surprised anyone.
I don't think, but go that go to keep in mind and we're are we I
have to like, how does this data, like combine?
How do we look at the important relevant stuff?
In combination, we get context. And what else?
I do think that it's interesting that sake.
One is still staying in around 16, expected points per game and
despite, and not really this piping in that kind of like, I
guess top tier, but not a not, not Elite and range.
Ava of kind of market share. What else we got going on here?
And look to c.f County, Pollard respite.
He's actually on the next chart. So I'll move down here so this,
but he's actually on the second chart and so he is, let's see.
He is He's I just 49 percent is taking place either either
getting a Russian attempt or running a route, but and when he
is on the field, he's getting the ball.
Such a high proportion of the time and that he still went
there in and around them. 16 expected points, a game and
crushing it on efficiency as well.
And so that that I think that's very interesting where Even
though he is probably now back to being a full-time player,
actually full part-time player and with Zeke getting in the mix
that when he is on the field, he's getting so much opportunity
and he's at you probably should expect some regression but he's
also a good player so you are getting efficient and use.
He is being a fish. And with his use and so
definitely, it definitely interesting player that it kind
of flare. We're in BFS, if he's going to
be loans and you want to play him just because he has that
volatility profile where he can go out and get your 35 points.
And I know. So really looking at so big, a
big Fall From Grace for Rahim, most stirred, and still still I
guess in the 48 percent range, but abysmal and It is abysmal on
the expected points a historical and that's it.
That's, that's funny. Maybe it.
Maybe I should maybe I should give a deep dive into how I was
and make the delivery charts and these actually they kind of do
look like The Leverage hurts, but this is it the ring back
usage and yeah, I know that people have really enjoyed those
in the IM in, what's it called? The hand Builders up October
owes Channel and and and it doesn't take me too long to up
to update those on the weekend. So I was happy to provide So,
yeah, so Rahim most are not really not a bad rush and root
chair here, but it's just not translating to expected points.
And you can see that with Jeff Wilson to even though, like,
he's supposed to be lower, he's on the field for a lower
percentage of time. Getting higher expected points.
But really not getting any two points that you need in the
business end of the season where you kind of do need to be
pushing 15, 20 points, and if you would like to win and that's
kind of what you need, Yeah, and before I move on, and does
anybody have any questions? Is there any, is there a player
that at anybody would like me to spend time talking about, or I?
Yeah, I will move onto at the wide receivers. and, What else
do we got going on here? Yeah, Rashad white and a little
bit of a promotion for him and twenty twenty percent of this is
team, schnapps are Rush, are for him and then he that 32%, and
he's running a route and translating at this, that's 16
points. Expected points per game, and
may, not really, Getting, they're not really giving any
kind of efficiency and minus point zero four fantasy points
over expected. So for me, that's that's
basically that's well within the standard deviation of zero.
So I'm basically he's doing what he's supposed to do.
I guess what? Not really lighting the world on
fire and but definitely encouraging to see that kind of
uptick over the last couple weeks and possibly going to hold
on. But a little bit, a little bit,
surprising to see, Nick Chubb, buried so much here where he's
gonna kind of like only on fantasy relevant plays 48
percent of the time that was looking a lot better, Aryan or
season 12 or 12 and a half expected points there or
thereabouts expect for game, and then really middlee in terms of
the efficiency. I think Nick Chubb is is
somebody who can have a game where he's just ripping off,
huge runs and getting eternity points that definitely, and if
his price starts coming down on on DraftKings, and if people
don't want to play them, definitely definitely
interesting. Play are from that point of
view. So we go.
So still 14 expected points for Leonard fournette.
Even though at or Shad, white has come to this forced him to
be the one be planning to Chinese.
Now the 1B, and but still 14 expected points really, really
not giving you what you needed with that kind of to treat earn
basketball pick and I've seen and I've seen enough of any
foreign app.net. I probably will never be able to
play him again. Maybe Never Say Never, but it's
a good kind of got called out a. That's where I'm feeling right
now I suppose and we ever get midseason etm back and That
would be really nice, right? The the ATN not forced and James
Robinson out of town. They're like oh yeah this this
is this is our guy now and he's is utilization is not terrible
but it's certainly not a lie and you're looking at eight and a
half and if I let's say if I change this back to of The
Twelve so you're looking are. Yeah.
So you're looking at week 12. And week, 13 and week 14.
So yes, 7.7 expected points per game and really, for on the
efficiency. No, he did.
Have he did have the injury and so maybe he needs to work true
that true that a little bit and but not not looking enticing for
me. Anyway, and Roxanne a cooler,
he's coming back up to 25 expected points, per game over
the last couple weeks, he obviously huge.
And if if he can keep like, I know they've had the injury.
So they have to lean on that clear more.
But that's such a Difference Maker and this year, running
back. and, Melvin Gordon. What's he doing?
Here? I got Elite that one.
And delete them from my spreadsheet.
Unfortunately I can't really don't for my best ball for her
Leo. Anybody we're looking at here.
So Garrick and me Canyon, we obviously have the huge week 14
and I'm sure it's not. That's made a difference and
forgetting advancing team to the playoffs and whatnot.
And but still, I suppose still a solid expected points to, which
is really nice to see. Because I obviously players can
have those huge plays and Big score, big touchdowns that get
you two points and you want those and but you will never
have a sustainable. They are.
And but gray too great to see that.
Even over the last couple weeks. I'll change this back to back to
10. Even over the last couple weeks
or even back home, back to week 10, 12 expected once per game,
when you draft would how late he was?
Drafted that at that, that's a good return, and 8.6 expected
points in the passing game. So, I thought I should help blow
bat. Tyler L Jared I've got too many
teams where my my running backs have all been obliterated and
taller allergy or is still is the last man standing.
And the six expected points per game does not.
It doesn't feel great and, So I'm going to move on to the the
wide receivers and obviously, as you guys can see, this is
probably going to be a little bit of a shorter show this
evening. Yeah.
Last set, just just less less time talking when when it's one
person versus too. So I don't know if there's if
there's going to be anything too surprising here and Interesting
God. Christian Kirk.
Cristian Kirk, he's odd, a, he's just so he's scoring points and
what just fifty percent on the way, the targets per run, which
Is that honestly, that that does seem a little bit lower, that's
lower than I would have thought. And put he goes happy as a great
route chair and so even though it's strong, not only am and
he's running, almost every Route, 95 percent of routes and
so that is translating 2015, 15 fantasy points per game.
What else have we got going on here?
So, I've got this field, I've got this filtered down to the
show. Anybody with 85 to 100 percent
of the team reps. I'm see the probably the one
thing that it was not the nicest to see here and was a Jones
coming in at at 52 percent rate, of targets for our run, 91% of
the route share, and that 12 points per game.
So definitely, yeah, definitely. That's a nice Stout line for,
for where you are getting is a Jones And I'm even in the in the
resurrection he was cheap in the best ball.
Resurrection. Even after the Jaguars I kind of
show. No, yeah, they can put up some
productive games. What else are we looking at
here? And Interesting Gabe Davis 44%
way to targets for our run, really high at Route share.
And what yeah the target rate has not been probably not really
been as high as you need it. And some of that is probably the
tank and Stefon Diggs who's up at like a ridiculous 71% I am
kind of probably just hired to, to Aaron the and the
concentrated, and not a high enough concentration of targets
and to justify kind of like around for around tree, pick and
with Stefon Diggs being such a like a ridiculous Target, get
her. Obviously love seeing Draco and
then up at 66% that at that is really nice to see and that's
one where yeah, you know, the points haven't really been there
and but it's a the underlying metrics are really strong.
If they're ever did become a time where the, the Falcons past
attack did get going now, who knows when that could be, if
that might happen, but we do know that if it were to happen
at, you would probably get you would like to get a lot of
points from a dragon London and so, definitely something
something to someone of those kind of volatility things were,
hey, you know, this is probably your probably on your cook
kicked in the nuts, more often than not and but what you with,
you probably will get games where games and hopefully see
you Throughout his career where he scored his lots of points.
So definitely someone to click over and over.
But at least that's what I'm going to do.
And Yeah, you know, I guess one of the one of the issues for the
Falcons was that or their passing game is that they just
did not trust Mariota to the sling.
It and we all saw that clip where he truly under Section and
then the head coach was like, yeah, we're not doing that
anymore. And so maybe maybe Ritter and
maybe he can provide the kind of spark where they do trust their
policy. No offense.
And at those got going a little bit more and that's what we can
hope for, right? And well, so we got going on
here. 69%, very a, very fitting for mr.
Metcalf and 15 points per game about says, that's really
strong. Let's move on to the the next
grouping. Life is about right?
and, So nowhere, no surprise. One of the stories of the season
has just been has been how huge Tyree kill has been for the
Dolphins passing game and 90% and wait, if I go for a run,
let's just just for context. The next highest. if you
exclude, let's say, Let's exclude the kind of like part
time receivers. The next highest is Davante.
Adams of 77% and like just an unbelievable season for him and
22 points per game. Really, really strong.
There we go. I'm in raw, I'll see kind of
like a little bit of a disappointment and with the
injuries and, and the kind of like games where It was in, it
was healthy enough to play but maybe not to produce.
And what still really strong game are extremely strong and
production when he has been playing and T.
Hey guns. I'm honestly, I'm a little bit
too triggered to it. Talk about to Higgins after Dada
taking off the injury report report and then not played and
so maybe, maybe I should just move on and 61% for gel and
waddle. It is interesting that they have
these ridiculous concentration, like, 61% way to carry for it.
Run nine percent but they're bowed, The their boat at 82% a
trout chair so like they'll take them off the field.
More often done at order talk to your receivers but then like far
Target off the target at them when they do get on that.
Like I think that's like an interesting.
Yeah, it's interesting. Interesting to see of like maybe
When you have these elite players.
When you have these elite players, maybe if you don't give
them kind of like routes or like, you don't put them on the
field when you're not actually getting your full, use the full
use out of them. Just something something
notable. Yeah, asan.
I love her son and definitely one of my favorite people in the
financial Community. But he's dead fucking wrong
about two years and I think this is what is this?
My story, and I'm sticking to it is that if you had a flipped the
T Higgins week, 16 game, with the gemara Chiefs week, 17 game
and Auntie Higgins was the one when people all the money.
Like it. The perception would just be
completely different. But I really, I'm not impressed
with the Bangles. And what else we got going on
here? And Did you Smith Smith
Schuster? 44% and wait a sec refer at run.
I yeah I that's probably is a little bit disappointing and
consider and how highly he was drafted this year only 76
percent route chair and yeah not and not not what you needed, not
what you needed. And then incorrectly.
I was interesting to see Curtis Samuel, he goes get targeted
with their slick, short targets, stop the way to Target for a
room. There's not like them.
What? Hey, twelve and a half and
points per game from your last round, pick pretty nice.
And Jerry, Judy, another guy where they kind of underlying or
peripheral metrics, a great, 60% way to Target for.
Everyone is a really strong at it is clearly a Target getter
and but 12 and a half points, even when he per game, even when
he scored had the tree touchdown game and Last weekend and been
disappointing. And and another one where, and
he would strongly believe that, if the that passing game did get
going, he would be, it would be a big reason why it would get
going and score a lot of points. So definitely not ready to throw
in the towel on Jerry Judy. Yet for me anyway. and, However,
Boyd, it's tough looking at 30 per 36 percent way to Target run
for him. And I really love talking about
the player and admire his his ability as receiver and But it's
it's really hard to get it a strong Target chair when you're
playing with a Jamar Chase and T Higgins.
Yeah. What else we got going on here?
yeah, nothing really striking me and
I'll know Chris. What did I do?
Is this guy I'm trying to figure out did you just spell my name
wrong on purpose? Or is this about James Conner?
That's what that's that was my first thought actually my second
thought was what this this sounds like at my mom given out
to me out when I'm in trouble. Connor.
Or maybe it's Connor. Well yeah, it's trying to trying
to trying to decipher it out at that comment a little bit.
So, I'm going to filter out the 1775 because they're just
looking at it. Christian Watson.
And if you that's it, that's a huge mess for me.
I did not believe in the talent coming out of college and I
thought, hey this guy, it took him like, what, four or five
years to get to get going and and non power 5 school, but
clearly that at that did not those suspicions.
Those doubts were not correct. T' and huge 66 where to target
for at run on just a 49% that route chair, obviously that's
going to pick up on and has been picking up.
So, I could definitely easily be a for husband, a force.
The last couple of weeks and will likely be a strong force in
the playoffs and Ellen, Burke's 58%.
We know the story here. He's a beast and we need them.
Get off the injury table, back on the field, scoring points,
putting up scoring touchdowns. He's getting yardage dot are
please and thank you. Anybody else?
We're spending time on here. Hmm, this said this 37% is
honestly a little bit disappointing for Tycoon Taunton
and kind of like well-regarded Prospect as a receiver.
I was excited at the drop them in the 8 inch round this year
and Pull It in a Patriots. What your see record that is not
particularly strong at would like to see a higher number than
that. And the Sean Jackson gets an
absolute Chad 30%, route chair. But when he goes, it's going
there going to be If I'm going to move on to tie downs, but if
there if anybody if anybody has any questions but or the
receiver you want me to talk about?
I will come back to it. Another charity.
Hey I do the charts that I can write.
We've got a damn this. What we're trying to focus in is
unroot, share and who is on the field running routes at a
height, the highest percentage of the time because with the
exception of your Travis, Kelsey's your mark on Andrews,
your George kills and a tight. End is a Thai dance.
And a lot of the time they're not they're not the same man.
They it tight ends that they don't score a lot of funds you
points. But what you're trying to do is
you're trying it once you miss out on the on the ones that are
really wide receivers, like Travis Kelce, and you are trying
to find, hey, who's Sonia, I can get for cheap.
That's running. A lot of routes and is also has
a tight end designation and really nice to see at t.j.
Hawkinson up here. And I've also got, I've also got
the data here where 20% targets per outrun and then 7.3 a DOT
and he is now a viking though. So I'm gonna put in a little
little men. Manual adjustment here.
Welcome at 87% are 87% Route 15 percent Target for a run and
then in 98 like that is a far cry from area in the year like I
know that you're always going to have A shortage of pass attempts
for the Bears for the foreseeable future.
But that is a, that's a really nice share of the pie for a
tight end and can definitely see how he's had.
Those kind of spike games, those Spike weeks, has some people
like to call them and 80% routes are for Greg, dulcich 17%, I
guess, / at Rouen 12.7, a DOT, and another player we're like
gray, peripherals, and can definitely, I could definitely
see him having at the type of game that the helps people a lot
in the, in the playoffs. What else have we got going on
here? And I've talked about this in re
in it, previously, trama, cried, and over here, had high hopes
for him and in the offseason, But despite now getting on the
field for a 70%, on the the roads and I'm like I got this at
the weekend as well. Yeah, I do.
Seven percent of routes and just a nine percent Target.
Share five, a DOT and really, really disappointing.
Really disappointing and somebody who has not been
disappointing, is that David and joke.
Ooh, obviously working back from and midseason injury, but Point
like he's running around 70%. It's not great, but it's not
bad. And and then Pretty ridiculous
to be honest, 21%, dead Target for outrun and solid, eight out
of eight or seven point nine. And somebody that well were
playing and in DFS after a while, I guess ownership and
ownership and Price egg contingent but not.
So I don't need anybody to sniff your nose on. and, A little bit
disappointing that a rubber kunin Bobby Bonilla, never you
never got up to at the right chair, that we were hoping first
stuff down and 63% and kind of hope that with his recovery
ongoing recovery from the ACL injury.
He would become more of a full-time player as the season
wore on and obviously a big part of the team when he is on the
field with 19% them at Target for right run.
Oh, and but never really got not really still not getting the
right chair that we're looking for.
Gerald Everett. Yeah I definitely yet was not at
looking for him to be 50 truth 53% of the rats that are.
That's pretty low. What how how excited I was for
Jared out Everett at the start of the year?
Like a sickie. Fifty percent 15 percent that
are overrun 10.2 a dot. Yeah, yeah, that's not great.
No Fant. Another guy who wear the red
chair is not great and what the targets per outrun is really
strong. I mean, I'm curious now.
So yeah, all of these are the Seattle tight ends.
They get so, 18 percent Target bird 116, percent, Target for
everyone. Get a solid work when when they
got on the field and and I think that's like interesting from
like a contingent them and upside sort of deal where so I
know will this lie. He's been working through a calf
injury. Hurry and he did play last week
but if one of them were to go down and maybe perhaps then the
road routes, would consolidate around one of them and with how
much of a part of the offense, the tight end is now in Seattle
that at that could be a really interesting play and definitely
something to keep an eye on. And so I know that if somewhere
here he will be pushed going to do an expanded and back up tight
end segment. But he's not here and so I don't
have to do that and then I'm not going to do that.
Yeah. And just seeing Achievers
comment that the 20 and efficiency where he had like
what like 12 touchdowns or something like that.
And I think the the data that were looking at does suggest
that he's a good player. But yeah, it was probably
finishes like a top five tied in that year.
Nowhere close this year. And but yeah I think I think
that's going to wet the finish it off for me.
And if anybody has any questions and Shout now or message me in
this cord and more than happy to answer, whatever, I know,
whatever I can help with and and that thanks for tuning in today,
guys.