Hello everybody and welcome to week 17 of saturating.
The only week that matters is week 17, and we are finally
here, got a couple exciting sweats and basketball
tournaments discuss, both Connor and I have Um, bullets left in
Bethel Mania and that that species best fall tournament.
And we're also going to talk some strategy for playoff
basketball and rip. A couple drops on there.
But yeah. Connor, let's start with you.
Do want to talk through your sweat?
You have gone and we 79 ft c--. Yeah, yeah.
I should say yeah before I start I think there's something
strange with your audio. Okay it's a little echoey.
But also, I'll try to fix that. You can?
Yeah, yeah, I'll shut about my here.
So obviously at the light of the are two teams in the finals and
the way I'm trying to approach it mentally is, hey, once you
get into the finals, it just it's a run them DFS work, right?
And getting there, is there it is.
As much as there is skill in the game that that's that's That's
the part that that's the. That's the part that I guess.
You've gotten over a hurdle, you giving yourself a chance to win
and so really, really happy with that.
And like, you and one of my two teams was that their country
team, so really? Yeah, be more accurate to say
one and a half teams left. Yeah, the Derrick.
Anything? I mean, I guess we should have
predicted that. Week 17 would be meaningless,
meaningless for the Saxons. I mean, for the Titans God,
that's probably got to run bad. And yeah, what makes it run bad
even worse? Is that my other team has a, who
should be the backup for for Derrick Henry and don't roll
Hilliard? Well, he's on.
I or so, he doesn't even benefit.
Now that's yeah, that's frustrating.
Yeah, the Derrick Henry stuff. I don't know.
Like I guess he's not officially an active yet.
So I've been holding out the slightest bit of Hope, but all
the reporting says he's an active.
Yeah, every all the news Breakers and whose hands are
said, yeah, he's not gonna play like I'm, I'm just lying to
myself at this point and holding on to that that five percent
chance. But anyways, we should have set
up a little bit more. You, you won this tournament
last year for That's what's so I I just assumed that for every, I
repeated so often I just assume at this point and what?
Yeah, I won the tournament last year.
The team I had last year was like, kind of like a suit,
probably the best team ever dropped in my life and I had a
jobber. Oh, Joan hurts and Devon single
jury as Sony, Michelle boat, like, in the top five for
running back scoring In playoffs last year.
Yeah, them adieu March a Steve-O, Samuel just in
Jefferson, Mark Andrews. And and then a bunch of like
other guys that were also useful and AJ Brown as well, a chipped
in a little bit, but the yeah, playoff weeks of, I remember it
like week, 16 or something last year.
Yeah. These teams like, so, last year
last year's team scored, 200 above 200.
It's like every single week and these have been 195 errs and it
kind of feels like, I've been a little bit lucky to get the one,
let me fibers and couple more injuries.
The, the depth picks aren't as interesting and but one thing
that I do think is interesting. So their boat Pat Mahomes at
Kelsey's Sox strike called you have, could you screen share
your teeth? Yeah.
So yeah, I've got the ownership here and that it to be helpful
and eligible. So the team on the left that's
probably that the, the more likely team.
Now that I do think is live, so about teens are Pat Mahomes and
Kelsey stocks, and there is only I have.
So what I had obviously, these are among the, the chalk here
players. So like 14% Kelsey, which isn't
too high, but it is pretty high, 17% them at Pat Mahomes and I, I
suppose, I should say, it goes help with the lower count that
add. That means there's only 11 order
Mahomes hands 90 turkel, see teams and there's only two,
there's only two after you, that's not.
So I have it. There's only 60 homes and Kelsey
teams. And in the in the finals.
So just having that stack, that's what made that suck
difficult, was you needed that Mahomes to get back to you late
in the sixth for that ATP to work out.
Yeah. And and what it strikes me as
just just kind of like getting some decent values on them on
your ear Lee picks. It even interested in going into
this final where I've got some Some higher ownership players in
combination, they're not like there's any Tri calcium home
safe on themes. And obviously, if all three of
those guys went off that would be really helpful for me and in
terms of putting a points, but then it wouldn't push up.
And I guess there's only tree or two other teams that would have
all three of those players. And so, yeah, that does show to
me like the The the value of getting good ATP value early and
drafts. When you get into these spots is
super helpful. Yeah, that's a good point.
It's not all about just individual ownerships.
Another thing I think that's interesting with this team is
you had both Kelsey and Kidd oh and I guess going bully.
Tight end is a little bit more common and ffp see than it would
be. Yeah yeah yeah.
So this is a very yam this is a very ffp see driven thing so I
actually I wrote a blueprint Rinse and on how to attack this
tournament in the offseason. And one of the biggest points
that I tried to make was at people kind of going to the
tight end premium format just systematically underestimate
just how much tied and Firepower you need so yeah I am.
So Kelsey was happy to take I think I got a George kittel in.
I got a George Kettle. So happy happy to go double a
lead. And then even even when I have
the double Elite, still going to the third guy because this is a
comment, honestly, this is a combination that shows, just how
valuable. And those and those below
performances can be. And because the other point
about ffp, see, is that it's to flex.
So, literally I dropped the tree tight ends and they are all in
my lineup. And and really gave this team a
helpful push into it. It's the last week.
Yeah. That makes a ton of sense.
Yeah, like an underdog future have three tight ends you're
obviously dead to have them all in.
You're right once here can work out.
I also like would assume that people who draft an elite tide
and the first two rounds. They generally like shy away
from. All right, the one, third and
fourth. So I imagine that the kid'll.
Like when you looked at the combos, as you look Kettle and
Kelly. I've got a Hooters to Kelsey
Kittles teams. Yeah.
Because like both those Muslims who which is unfortunate but
yeah, we kiddo. Kelsey that's massive, right?
Yeah. That's interesting because both
those guys individually are what?
20% both like 20 and 15 percent owned or something like that.
You've got 14 percent for Kelsey and 21% and for kiddo, but like
you said, only one. Other team had them in
combination. Even though kiddo has been huge
in the playoffs. And Kelsey has been helpful
Kelsey's, clearly gwinner and helpful in the playoffs as well.
Yeah. And then the other thing I
should say is it is only 63 teams in the final.
So having a having fun entering tournaments where the final
count is lower or to this? The tournament size is smaller,
can be very Fork from that standpoint to.
Yeah, that makes sense. It looks like to just looking
at, look at the team, the left in particular.
I like the I think like you have a lot of wide receivers here
that are low on but still very much alive to have, right?
Weeks. Hardman coming back is pretty
interesting, Claypool. He went absolutely mad, so maybe
you can come back, but yeah. Any other like low and guys on
your teams here that your son is, probably the big hopeful,
we're 13 percent. So, not particularly low on.
But given the, given the upside down, he's, he's capable of and
definitely interesting and happy.
Definitely happy to have for Tat became a calf.
And they're putting the Jets this week and, and hoping for a
big game for the Seahawks and Maybe maybe Tyler Lockett those
play but he he still second fiddle to Metcalf after taking a
few weeks off. Mmm.
Yeah, that makes sense. Cool.
And last things I noticed you have both both Mahomes teams
here but unless I'm missing something.
Not a ton of Denver bring. Oh I guess the team in the
right. You did have Edmonds and dull
Stitches. The bright?
Yeah, well at Edmonds was a dolphin when.
Oh, yeah, yeah, and what I did have those sausage and you might
like what? Why don't I do the week 17,
bring back because we've all seen the me.
Means on Twitter where it's like, oh well you can have Pat
Mahomes and Kelsey in the final but if you don't have courtrooms
something on the way back, you're dead.
And so I am, I tried to drop was much correlation as I can and
but the way I think about correlation as well is that you
need the value, still needs to be there.
Yeah, because like we talked about this correlation is like
it's like a point boost for your team.
But if you're drafting at / values to begin with, then your
point boost may not even take it up to and the, the same
projection as a as a non-correlated option and I
guess I had a general, take note that I didn't drop Courtland
something or Judy at all. And I didn't them which color I
really did not go out of my way to drop them just because I
honestly thought especially towards the end.
Both of these are later dropped a teams and that those guys were
too expensive. So, and and that's that's one of
those things where it's like a personal choice, like best ball
is not solved by any means and but the way I play, I one
correlation but I'm not going to take horrible values or what I
think are bad values, just just to get correlation.
Yeah, I think that's fair and I won't be able to set the exact
numbers here but I know hidden did some research this summer on
like the bring back correlations and they are like a little bit
weaker that I think the general hivemind fantasy twittersphere
things like certainly they exist especially like wide receiver,
two opposing wide receiver, a quarterback to a potent weapon
fever but the other ones like quarterback to opposing running
back or like running back to opposing tight end or stuff like
that. I saw a lot of people forcing
that type of thing. When sure, if it's at ATP, like
I don't think that hurts you right out but definitely not
something that like whereas the the team like the quarterback to
his own teams wide receiver, I'm willing to reach like close to
around in a teepee to to do that, you know, especially once
you get into the later rounds because I think that's just so
valuable like the debris from a single play but some others can
these tournament things. So yeah, I'll give you an
example of where I did read. Each and for a stock.
So I got just from memory, I got about around and a half on Joe,
Borough a value, but I didn't have t Higgins, or Jamar Chase.
And then I was like, okay, well if Joe burrow is winning me, the
money, then somebody has to score two points from and and
those two guys are gone. So I reached about around and a
half on her body just because I'm like, I'm Yeah, I have to
like, oh, this is the only way to where the win Equity at makes
sense here. Yeah.
Now that makes sense. Cool.
Anything else you wanted to to note on your team's here?
And also, as my audio. Yeah, yeah.
You're suddenly good know, for sure.
Cool. And yeah, I think I covered kind
of the points that I wanted to and maybe I've got another
issue, I'm probably irrationally cheering on Jensen Williams at a
given that a, he's a, he's on that at that left team.
Like, I'm just praying every week that It's not count.
Goes up, you getting these deep targets and he score on bombs,
but probably not going to happen, but that said, that's
something where I'm like, I'm going to be cheering for it.
Yeah, it like, it's weird how they still, he's still behind
Reynolds and Raymond like I didn't expect him to get a full
role at any point this year necessarily, but I did expect
him at least to be hovering, you know, in that 50 to 70% route
rates range and worship, eat snaps again or 8th routes again.
I'm that type of thing. So it's kind of our have
perfected a little bit on that where if it feels like well it's
he's a rookie that missed all the training camp and what like
half the season more than half the season and so he just
starting off. So we hind yeah.
Like he has to learn all these new Concepts and and even though
look he's clearly one of their better players.
They can't play him because he hasn't practiced The Playbook
enough. So that's a That's definitely
going to be something that I remember forever.
A future years on that kind of like HCL stuff for our
longer-term injuries. Yeah, I think that's, that's
fair. I think we have seen it break
other ways. Historically, like that though
Adele is always that liar, example, that comes to mind
there where he missed a huge stretch of time, right?
It wasn't a CL, wasn't that serious?
So, I think there's a difference there and in that type of, you
know, surgery and long recovery. I think Odell's injury was like
a hamstring pull or something, right?
Yeah, I think you'd have something of A training camp.
Like, yeah, like yeah, you may need a and all that sort of
stuff. We're Sam.
And game-mode did not. Yeah.
Okay cool. Let me pull up my best ball
team. So I was able to sneak through
two teams into best Ball Mania, 30, congrats.
By the way, getting to bbm's into the finals.
Huge. Oh yeah.
Like I got to a 10,000. You got to at a 460,000 like
that's, that's really, really good.
Yeah, sorry. Are you able to see the?
No, I got out of the stream. Okay, yeah, thanks.
Yeah. I was really excited about it
last year. So I kind of just got on the
best ball last year. I fired like I think 70ish
bullets on Basketball Mania gotten zero through the finals,
which is kind of what you expect, right?
That'd be your expectation. Yeah, so I did, I did the math
on 150 Max this year. You would expect to get Just
point one five teams from the final.
So like one out of every eight know six or seven people that
150 Max would expect to get a team to a final.
So that's just a like, put it in context of how low like All
Odds. This game that we all play is
like a lottery just to even get one team through to the finals,
even if you want 50 Max. So I certainly got some lucky
breaks here, the team on the left only scored.
And made it through the finals. So, you know, you gotta, you
gotta take some good luck where you can get.
But anyways, on these teams here, I guess starting with the
team on the left. This is a team where I actually
was able to like dig up my thoughts and when I drafted it
because it was a underdog Cardio Club team that I drafted and
tweeted about. And it was drafted, I think
August 18th or something in mid-august and I was really
heavy. Evian the one like the elite
quarterback strategy this year at a ton of hurts ton of Lamar
Jackson, Tom, Carla Marie. All those guys, I was scooping
up here, I got box out of elite quarterback, not really on
purpose, but a lot of them went earlier than expected.
So when that happened to me this year, I tried as best as I could
find sort of the mid or late round quarterbacks that still
had upside and Lawrence was a guy that I was all over this
year and not only Because he was cheap, but because the Jags pass
catchers were extremely cheap Kirk.
I think maybe was like a seventh or eighth round pick.
But the other guys, Zay, Evan engram.
If you want to get Marvin Jones, all those guys were basically
free. So, that's what helped this team
survive, I took Lawrence Zeta-Jones, Evan engram, Zay and
Evan engram, had huge games to close out the year that helped
me advance. And also have C4 net for some
off-site at running back. So, you know, this team, it
doesn't really have any like true League winners.
When you look at it, like maybe AJ Brown, You could argue or,
you know, cmc's obviously had a good year but not like
completely smashing expectations.
It's just kind of every one of these pics has got me some
points throughout the year, even if you had married a very
healthy Squad. Yeah.
Marietta is going to have
Massive game in week 17, he's I think he liked him and Chris
Evans across both these teams. Well, I guess Derrick Henry now
to those are the only three dead players across both of these
teams. I'm pretty sure.
So I like that. Just the fact that I have 30, I
don't know. 32 out of 36 or whatever players like healthy
across both my team. That's really helpful.
Yeah but one of the things that from My team's was that they're
carrying some injuries and so haven't having everybody healthy
is huge. Yeah the Derrick and so the team
the right? This is more of like I guess the
team in the left is kind of more anchor, wish our be and team on
the right is more somewhat almost not robust RV but I took
three running backs in the first Five rounds.
I think I took Henry and one Connor and three and Dobbins and
five kind of a weird draft. I also took two quarterbacks
pretty early and then kind of just played the volume game at
both wide receiver and tight end.
The T, I did take lamb in the second.
So I have some sort of Elite Talent there, but the wide
receivers caught up on both these teams to be honest are
like kind of wide receiver by committee teens like I've both
CD lamb and AJ Brown and then just a bunch of guys who have
stayed healthy and have had spiked weeks.
I guess, sorry, waddle to you on the team on the right has been
huge. But besides that, it's just kind
of a mishmash of guys who have been okay this year so I'm
hoping things break right? And you know, No.
Maybe I can get a big trail on Burks or Adam thielen or, you
know, Drake London game to close out the season.
Yeah, that makes sense. And one thing that I had a talk,
when you're talking about how hard it is, and I know the size
of the final, I really do think that M people should be thinking
about and resize a lot more. Like, I think the owner, the
underdog interface is great and BBM, is a really fun tournament
and but and and I guess they don't release the lower.
Entry higher dollar amount and until later in the offseason.
But I think that a lot more people should be looking at
those because I see a lot of, I see a lot of people upset that
they didn't get to the final. So there's some tilt and very
understandable because you got a lot riding on it, it's
emotional, but I do think that there's sweat Can be fun or
because for example they my pod in for to be BTS in the
semi-final it was 12 teams on top three out of 12 and make it.
So even if you got that monster team, that's corn way more
points at everyone else and you still have a good score you're
still more like you to go true down that and 1 out of 10.
Yeah. So I do I do think that's that's
like a takeaway and that I could I want to bang the drum on a
little bit. Yeah, I think that's fair.
I think I'll always play BBM and get close to maxing it just
because it's fun. Like it's not something everyone
that's one waiter place is great.
Yeah guys is excellent. Yeah, exactly.
But I'm with you, and I feel like what I struggled with this
year's that the alternative tournaments are either like
Hires like really high stakes are really low stakes like the
start of the smaller field tournaments, I guess they're
either really high Stakes or like the poppy and Pomeranians
for like five dollars in less and like I don't know, the best
will Draft take a lot of time and for me to sink like an hour
into a draft where the I'm only spending five dollars in the
entry. Like I don't know, that doesn't
quite do it for me but I also know I got it for sure.
I'd also done something on the on the high-stakes stuff and And
I, I see a lot of entries. So, and even though I had a lot
of winnings at from last year, to kind of, like, push back into
fffp. See it still made more sense for
me to code draft. So, instead of 125 dollar hit,
it's a sixty one, seventy five or whatever and 62, whatever,
and 60 to 75 and, and how do I say?
That. That was a way for me to like,
yeah, the entry closer to the what I wanted.
So I could do to drop the amount of drafting that I wanted and
and that reminds me actually I haven't, I drafted a bulldog and
actually not the Bulldog. Yeah it was the Bulldog where
that was $500 and but I've I did think I did tree of those but
split like ten ways and one of the ones that I did with the EGR
guys. And or is each of our
subscribers. I should say.
Yeah and that's actually in the final and that's cool and it's
20 grand of top, split ten ways. So it's not a not as I didn't
talk about and but Dad am to me. Those are ways that people can
reduce their variants essentially.
Yeah, that makes sense. So I wanted to bring David's
point on the Eagles getting back to two weeks.
Jean, Again, David hasn't hurts, less Eagle stack, AJ Brown,
devant Les, Smith and Dallas. Garnered, fighting me in the
final. I think that's, that's really
interesting to have all those Eagles.
I think Smith is quite High owned, but AJ Brown is, like I
said your brownies as well 19% goddard's down there at six
percent. I think that's interesting.
I was like so pumped to have this Jalen hurd's team sneak
through because I was like, oh, he's put up a zero in week 16,
he's gonna be like sorry. Some eight percent owned and the
final, I'm gonna have like a leverage, Jalen hurts, and then
flip over the cards this week. And I see he's a 22 percent
owned, even with the zero in, in week 16.
So I guess that just shows like how insane his season was.
He obviously had a massive week in the first round, the best
ball playoff. So he probably was at an insane
ownership to begin with, and I guess enough teams, you know,
scrapped by with some other QB to this the quarterbacks Ring
was really thought last week as well.
Right? Yeah, it was pretty good, really
put the top off. And then the guys in the qb2
range we're in and around, they weren't they weren't too far
off. I thought a lot of teams might
have just been eliminated by just having zeros at
quarterback, because at this point of the year, I think
there's only like, 60% of the original starters or still
starting by. Now, like I had 53 Philadelphia
teams in the semies that were dead.
Because I had a Philly New Orleans team with Jamis done.
I had a Philly Tennessee team with Tannehill.
That was done some other one that I'm blanking on right now.
But that was really frustrating where had these like Juggernaut
Philly teams that were just cooked because hurts was out and
the QB 2's I drafted were out to so anyways, that's just how it
goes, tough to predict that type of thing.
But definitely interesting that her still carries his massive
ownership which Is making me question.
Like I think I almost want him to sit at the obviously depends
how well DAC does tonight. But if deck is a big game
tonight, I want her to sit because if 20% of teams have
him, like, it doesn't really help me that much if you haven't
game. So, we'll see you on that one.
That reminds me actually my my and Derrick, Henry team has and
AJ Brown Schmitt and Quest. And and when I Drafting it.
I was a little bit like, oh, is this like, should I should I be
taken this Eagle stack? Without this, like, rushing
quarterback. So, what like it is that smart
and I think in my takeaway has kind of been in smaller
tournaments where you have a great quarterback photo, was
that, it can still be pretty viable.
And Yeah that makes sense. Okay cool.
I want to make sure we get to some playoff basketball stuff,
right? We'll probably tired of talking
about our team. So let's let's talk through
before we jump into the drafts. Let's talk through as we always
do here. Some some hard data on stat
chasing. So when I put together here on
this chart, and again, I guess, broader context, we're talking
now about Underdog playoff basketball drafts.
If you haven't check them out, you definitely should, I don't
know. Tennessee.
You're essentially drafting best ball teams now for the real
playoffs, not the fantasy playoffs.
So you have to draft a team that will advance in each round from
the Wildcard Weekend. Divisional, round Championship
weekend Super Bowl and you want to get enough points in each of
those rounds to advance and then get a team to the Super Bowl
that has, you know, 5 plus players on it.
So you can fill out a lineup and maximize your chances of scoring
there. So what I did here on this
chart, I Wanted to look at individual teams, odds of making
the playoffs and chances of making the Super Bowl and to do
that. I looked at two sources, 538 has
a model and I also just looked at DraftKings sports book and
kind of average. It two of them to get to these
percentages on the top here because there's some differences
between, you know, 538 and what DraftKings.
Thanks. And then, I wanted to look at
how many players on the underdog drafts are going in the top 20
top. The in top 60 of ATP, for each
of these teams to see if we could identify our there.
Are some undervalued teams that have a high chance of making the
Super Bowl. That no one is drafting our,
their teams that have a low chance of being the Super Bowl
that are getting overdrafted, that type of thing.
My main takeaway, I was kind of stretching for takeaways here
because the underdog Market is smart.
All the good teams are all their best players getting drafted.
You know, the shitty teams known as drafting them.
You kind of expect that but a couple of the biggest Things I
did notice was I think there are maybe four or five undervalued,
team's starting with Baltimore who is locked to make the
playoffs, still like an eight percent chance of making the
Super Bowl and nobody really wants to draft these guys.
I think it obviously has to do with the Lamar Jackson Fudd.
He's been injured for a while was kind of struggling even
before his injury. But, you know, if you just
Numbers the betting markets. I think that's a decent team to
stack up and then some lower own teams, Tampa Bay Jacksonville
and and Green Bay, which is maybe the biggest stretch of the
three. But you know Tim van
Jacksonville both around 70, 75 percent chance to make the
playoffs. Both those teams if they make
the playoffs will be hosting their first round game for the
Wildcard Weekend so they should be, you know.
Decent odds in that game to win just virtue of just by virtue of
having it be a home playoff game.
And again, nobody wants to draft either of these teams you can
stack up, you know, all the Tampa Bay guys maybe with
Buffalo or KC and the other side or you can stack up all the
Jacksonville guys may be with you know Philadelphia or SF
another side and I think create some some decent teams there.
So if you don't mind me asking, yeah, you played the you played,
I haven't played these tournaments.
Much as you have and but curious about how you would approach a
team like Baltimore because I could see, one way that I could
see being super easy and clean is hey, if I have a team, if my
first team has a first-round, bye, I need points in that
Wildcard Weekend and it's probably a fair bet that someone
like JK Dobbins is going to score a decent amount of points.
So help you advance that round. And and I could see that being a
really clean way to play it and you tell me if that's off.
And but if you are like, are you willing to make a bet that I am
the Ravens? Make it to the Super Bowl.
Because like, I think that's probably one of those things
where and it's why they're cheap, it's that kind of gut
feeling of water cheap, where the numbers might suggest that
it's probably higher probability than people are thinking.
And is that how you would like approach it that like, hey the
number say more, like in the people are saying, I'm gonna do
it a greater percentage on the field.
It might be a low percentage of your portfolio, but greater than
the field. Is that how you?
Yeah. Yeah, I think, I think that's
right. I, I don't want to go like 100%
Baltimore, you know, something like that.
Well, it's not going to be a high percentage.
No. But it's definitely higher than
the field. Like I don't know if you can
like I think ball. It's more and like Minnesota or
like a decent cop just in terms of like odds of making the Super
Bowl odds of winning the Super Bowl.
Minnesota slightly better odds but it's closed right?
And Minnesota has two guys going in the top. 20 for guys, go in
the top 40 Baltimore has 0 and 1 respectively for those
categories. So I'm just like looking at that
and saying and you know every draft obviously it's like it's
contingent drafting where depending on, who I dropped in
the first round that determines whether Minnesota are bald.
Makes more sense that type of thing.
Like, you know, I'm not doing a full fan of Minnesota, anything
like that but just in general I want to be pretty heavy, you
know, these teams that the field is just completely ignoring
because if Baltimore does make a Super Bowl run which again low
likelihood like markets and 538 habitats like a dish percent
chance. Like if they do there's just not
a lot of teams that are going you know Lamar JK Andrews, maybe
to Marcus Robinson or something like that.
So if you have that th Team, you know, in the final week you're
just such a massive favorite. So I think how you categorize
like or how you characterize it is similar to how I'm thinking
about it. Like, I want to have fun with
these. I want to get exposure to like
all different types of teams. But I'm sort of looking at this
from a macro lens. Like, looking at this type of
chart here to sort of think about how I want exposure to
different teams based on this sort of like valuing.
And so my other question would be is How do you think about it
in terms of like say the Ravens are not a high-octane offense,
Fantasy, Football was right now. So let's say you had how are you
thinking of it as like, the Ravens are a team that you
almost have to drag true to the Super Bowl.
Or is it do you think that like you can make a bet that it
concentrates enough and they score enough points that your
Mark Andrews JK Dobbins. And like you said, the Demarcus
Robinson stuff they will, because they would still have to
compete with what core teams players and in the, in the
second last round. And I'm more than that in the
end of the vision oils. Yeah, I definitely, I have
thought about that. Again, I try to think I like,
okay. If like the Baltimore Baltimore
feels gross right now, like, it's a gross.
Great. Yeah.
But I try to take the logical Haley if they do make a Super
Bowl run, like they're at least two or three of those guys, I
think are going to hit my line up every week, but I do think
you raise a good point, like a team like Cincinnati.
I'm okay. Going with like six or maybe
even seven Cincinnati. Maybe seven is a lot, but I'm
fine with going 56. Cincinnati guys for great more.
I'm probably going JK. Either JK or Gus Lamar Andrews
and just one other guy. Like I think you do run the
risk. If you try to go five, six
Baltimore players, like you might do with some of these
other teams that you can just bust out because there's not
gonna be enough mouths to feed. Like I think you do like
Baltimore. I think maybe the Giants are
another one. Like, I think it's a like, if
you want to The Jaws to make the Super Bowl.
I don't think that's crazy. Like, no one's doing that.
And like, I think doing it, you know, one or two times you're
doing it more than the field is, but yeah, if you're doing the
Giants, like don't go crazy. Take Jones Berkeley, pick a wide
receiver, maybe pick two wide receivers, but like, call it at
that like you don't want to over, you know, oversight?
Yeah, I think that makes sense. Limiting, the stock size with
those teams. Is that it is appropriate.
And yeah. And then my other thing, my
other point was so with that, Raven stock one, somebody the
Millie maker in DFS last year, like any tea or so when the
moneymaker and it was because their, their posture over
expectation, just got flipped right on its head because they
were dealing with injuries and obviously, you can't predict
that that's going to happen in the playoffs, but I think it is
Important to remember that, we feel much more confidently about
how that we about how these games are going to go.
That we should be like we are just getting constant reminders
of the variance in football and games can go way differently to
what you can imagine. And you're only there's only a
like there's not that many games in the playoffs is what So that
it's for its for weeks, right? And yeah, well, then like for
four weeks in a minute and I fell season has variants, but
you're probably getting half the games oven.
It's two weeks of the NFL were two games, and if I told you,
hey, I know how these next two weeks are going to go in the
regular season, you tell me to go.
Take a hike. Yeah, I was about to say
something else there. Yeah, no, I totally agree.
I think of these mother, you gotta like a teepee matters to
some extent, right? But like you gotta you gotta
contention based draft in these and like you said, I'm like the
variance. I'm trying to think about that
with my last couple pics. We're like, you see?
Like, Okay, Tyler boy for Cincinnati's getting drafted,
like, every time pretty much but Hayden writers and Trenton Irwin
are never getting drafted. Like, I'm going to Probably
break tiebreakers to her sober, Boyd, or to like, I don't know.
Russell gauge over Julio are, you know, that that's sort of a
deeper one but stuff like that. Like, you gotta look at like,
okay, are we really that confident that, you know,
whoever might be that Michael Gallup is better than T, Y,
Hilton, or something like that, or better than Noah Brown.
Like, try to mix in some of those instead of always taking
the gallops, the feelings, you know.
Those sort of guys like think about the one guy after that
they could outscore them on a one game slate.
So if with that said, why don't we just drop into some drafts
and we can continue to talk strategy as we as we go through
it, I'm going to hop into a mitten here.
If anybody wants to draft along with us, these generally feel
pretty quickly. And I will share it.
One second. Alright.
Draft is already starting in a minute.
So looks like we got Let's see. We got the one slot here.
So yeah, I've done a ton of these Connor.
Yeah I think I'm gonna defer to your Gardens on this pick, what?
Okay. Yeah I think like you can go a
ton of ways here. I think like, I think Buffalo
and Casey are still Like, you know, we talked about
Jacksonville and Baltimore. I still want a ton of exposure
to do, you know, Buffalo and Casey in these.
I think like, I've been thinking, I don't want to
overthink these a ton. I have seen me dance with me for
my home's, be honest. But okay.
And and just because the bills have this higher probability of
a getting a first round. Bye.
Yeah. I think that makes sense.
It's very close now bills. Well at least according to 538
bills, 46% Chiefs 44 but they do yeah, might as well.
Break the tie there. I like going like go on the
homes here. Oh yeah, it's first round body
46 to 44. Yeah, that's a honestly, that's
much closer than I've done on top.
Yeah, I think it got closer. The bills did have an edge, I
don't really know what in the 538 model change that, I guess I
guess it was the chief speeding Seattle.
They probably, you know, that was probably more of a toss-up
and then one, right? The Chiefs now, the Chiefs only
have to be, let's see, Denver and Los Vegas where as the bills
have Cincinnati. That's tough game.
And then potentially a really motivated New England team that
as my bad playe. Yeah, the ego for rev for
Cincinnati has Has been going up quite a bit as well.
Oh, yeah. I think I mean, not from 14
amount but enough. So.
Okay. Let's think through this.
So on the Casey side, Kelsey goes Juju and McKinnon are the
next two guys. By ATP, I think we should get my
haunt would be to go for one of them and less like a really
clean like, you know, both CD and Pollard are available or
something like that, okay? Really.
Just because I don't want to get boxed out of KC guys, Casey
guys, but let's see. We might get lucky with Dallas
here. Here.
It's at be Tucker. Take in the first.
Oh yeah, let's see a show of the draft board open.
He does go CD, okay. so, It's submit or Juju.
Then basically, Yeah. I like I like going something
like Juju and then devant. I think that let me play for a
Casey Philly. Yeah, I like that.
I've got yeah, the thing that's interesting so like I've thought
about this. Like, what if you know?
What if KC and Philly both, get the 1 seed, and both those teams
make it to the Super Bowl like, how do you build a team?
Right. And I literally have the same
talk. So egos are 95% to get the first
round. Bye and If that happens like
obviously you want five players in the Super Bowl.
So you gotta do like, you know, two chiefs three eagles, three
Chiefs to Eagle something like that, but I think you would like
again we don't know if Casey's and yet the by.
So we don't necessarily have to drop like this now but you and
want to live it at just five, right?
Because you want to be able to fill out a full starting lineup
in week one because only one out.
One out of six of these teams, nearpod, advance and week one.
God cell gets it gets kind of tricky were like, I think what
you would do is like take three Chiefs, Two Eagles and then like
just a bunch of like maybe one other stack.
Like maybe you take like Lawrence and Kirk and etn and
then maybe just like two random like one-offs and like like
you're basically just trying to build a lineup that can survive
right the cells. It's basically a 50/50 right now
that the Chiefs got the First round buyer.
Not so yeah. Should we?
I think it's so binary to either.
Get it or they don't. Should we play it as if they
don't? yeah, or the thing is, the thing
is we got we got box out of like A lot of the KC and Philly,
guys, like we go. Okay, I think we should take
ghadir here. That makes it and then what I'm
thinking is, We could set up. Did the decklid already go?
This is tricky. This this is where like if I
kind of get boxed out of like what I wanted to do, I consider
this going for more of those low own teams like Tampa, Green Bay,
Jacksonville, and just take like all their best players.
I think we should take Pacheco here and then maybe with our
last five picks we just go like All are like for Tampa players
or like, for Jacksonville players.
And that way we can play for either like a Jacksonville,
Philly Super Bowl or like a Tampa, Casey Super Bowl.
What we spend? So much time talking about the
Ravens. Yeah, that that team too.
That works. Now like you said we do want to
limit a stock size, but you forgot our radar I would have
suggested the Chargers to but Eckler.
Someone took her bird already to, I think he just went.
Yeah, yeah. So someone tone-tone G is
setting up a nice Philly, charger stack.
I think that's a, that's a clean way to do it.
That's a thing that like, you know, this, this Casey Philly
stack, like it didn't totally go our way like McCannon got typed
earlier than we wanted to Sanders, you know, there's a
chance he could have lasted but I still want to take stabs like
at building that and then when you see like another team Scooby
up all those players I think you just kind of have to like sure
if we could you know win if Casey and filler in the Super
Bowl and like we get this combination of players but like
I don't know at this point like no doubt it, we're going out a
team with that Super Bowl, but I think we pivot to an NFC team
here. Yeah, I would be inclined to
either probably go Green Bay or Tampa.
Do you have a lien on on which of those two teams they're like
just for the odds or similar odds to make it to the Super
Bowl ish, but opted a much higher odds of That is not
making the playoffs and kind of neither team is really getting
drafted, but tap is getting drafted more.
Okay, and I'll let you make a call on this pick because
there's 10 seconds. All right.
Let's go with Tampa. We can go Godwin and then all
these. The rest is guys are similar.
I like securing, what about Mike Evans, and then nobody can take
very good night. Yeah.
I like that and then I don't have a strong preference between
for net and and Rashad. I think that's like a coin flip,
really, right. And fernette.
Those have the injury to lose Frank that he was complaining
about. Yeah.
Yeah, that's I did. I saw that and I didn't quite
know how to read that. Like it the way the Border it
sounds to me as if it's like a pain and load management injury
and that's why he's like, yeah, stop giving out to me for not
scoring any points on. Like I'm playing turn injury
here and but he's out, he obviously is still getting a
nice opportunity, share our solid opportunity to share, I
should say. What?
If that if they're at all close, I would have in a teepee and
stuff. I would lean towards the guy who
doesn't have the injury. Yeah.
And there's even a world where we take both because you only
have one running back right now and not I think in this format
like we're betting heavy on Tampa just advancing like it's
not terrible just to take both guys, you seen a lot of times
historically like I think even with tap on their Super Bowl run
like format and Jones, both unusable weeks, you know, I
remember in San Francisco's plow Franz, you know, Tevin Coleman
and Rahim moster alternated like massive weeks back to back,
like, I think it's okay to go. The running back if there's not
a better pic, right? Yeah, I hear what you're saying.
Yeah, but let's see. Well I mean we also have that we
talked about and Evans and Godwin, so we do want Brady,
right? Yeah.
No, I think we do want. We do want Brady here.
I think we should go Brady and then let's see.
Like this team is desperate for running back points.
So just a one-off. wouldn't be terrible necessarily but I think
we should break the tie breaker towards at a running back of
some kind because like if Barbie was here today, we should go
Berkeley but like I don't think David, ztn necessarily project
better than these Tampa, guys. So, yeah, I'd be good for white.
Okay, let's go, white. I've been going with for net.
So make sense just to switch up my my preferences here because I
think it's, it's a toss-up, so, right?
Let's go, white and then we'll have one pick.
So, what we have here, we're still alive.
In a case, you feel like there's a world where, you know, both
Casey and Philly get the by and Tampa goes off against Dallas,
and the first week and keeps us alive for that scenario.
He or Tampa, just goes all the way and we have a Tampa, Casey
rematch. Here's where I wonder if, like,
like could a team of five Tampa players advance in the first
week, or, like, do we need to, like, take a one-off from
another team? That's what I'm trying to think
through like, I guess if it is completely smash, like, that's
possible. But it, it seems like if you're
trying to get a team, like if we're playing for this Casey
Philly Super Bowl and we're trying to get a team through.
Round one that we should like terroir is what's that?
What's that smaller running back?
Not Mi Sounders did this the other guy in well gain.
Well did you didn't wasn't their announcement about the turning
back? Scott Boston's yeah he was
either an active or he's injured.
Barely see, I missed that. I think gain gain well, gain
walls and play there. The thing I'll say is if we take
gain. Well, that means we've taken 6
Casey and Philly players I think is okay because Kate okay bye,
but it leaves us one roster spot short.
If both the scenes get the buys you know I'm saying?
Okay. um, so what I'm thinking is like I think we've kind of
built this team for whatever Cannery if it is, if you're
worried about around 1 points. Yeah.
But they're only 24 percent chance to make the playoffs now
already. Yeah, they're low because they
so, are they really that big of underdogs for em to beat?
Yeah. Because they only have to beat
them, right? They are 74 Jacksonville.
We have four seconds left. Alright, Jetsam is looking at
odds. I think that was I think that
was a fine thick. I think we built like, we'd bet
heavy on tampabay if they make a run, we've already seen in the
last several weeks that, like, for net and Rashad way your Fab
offsetting weeks. So, I think that's, that's fine.
Maybe it could have come to a better pick if let's see.
Let's look at this to you. Mmmmm.
Titans 27%. Yeah, that's pretty low.
So they are 538 really Tink da dat and the Jags are much better
down the Titans. Yeah, you want to do one more of
these? I think I have time for one
more. All right.
Okay. I like answer in the chat says,
we're just missing Sammy Watkins complete.
There are three minutes to heck. Yeah, I think Sammy Watkins is
the skeleton key to playoff basketball.
Yeah, that's so Davis modoch breaks.
Even the finally I did think for a second.
He was gonna have a game last week.
I think he had a big like 40 yard catch early in the game and
I was thinking of Davis. You know, making advancing like
10 teams to the finals based on that play, but I guess it didn't
quite work out. So at most Founders was a
limited within the injury so wrong at wrong running back.
Well, Sanders Was Heard. Okay.
Yeah, I think I think gain Wells and interesting pick.
I'm taking him a few times where I've done, like hurts AJ, Brown
gain. Well, And then stacked up a
bunch of AFC teams on their side because someone is vendors.
I also think what's interesting about gain Wells, he's the
passing down back and Philly is that so many games this year
where they've just been like up, 28, 20 at halftime or whatever
and like we haven't really seen Game scripts where gain well
would come into play. He's like the hurry up guy.
Two-minute offense. I wonder in the playoffs if
they're pushed. I think they do.
You trust him more than Sanders in those?
Situations. So maybe he has like a little
bit of hidden upside. Just based on based on game
script that we haven't really seen yet and he could just break
one as well. Yeah.
Okay, stop it often. He's let's seize a day.
I don't think so. He's 57 point seven, which I
think means not drafted often drought knocked out that often.
Okay, brush it off. And all right, we got Chris in
here at the three spot, a types. CJ, he's gotten top shows how
the build a Casey stacker tank. I mean I don't get why Hertz is
falling in these. I think it's just the the hurts
AJ. Brown stack is kind of too too
sexy to pass up on. What do you think?
like I get the first round by thing, but it's like, What
really matters is Super Bowl odds.
Like I don't care about my Advanced trading around more on
this tournament, and if you're able to sneak those Eagles teams
through you just have such a massive Edge, like starting with
the second round. So, so one thing that I've seen
and you tell me if this is true or not because hurts is like
that turd or for quarterback taken and there will be lots of
teams with eagles sucks because it's more like attainable.
And yeah, if that's the case, then you do want to be taught
full. And how do you be different than
the other Eagle stocks? Yeah, yeah, that's a good point.
And I thank you again. Like not to keep going back.
These Baltimore Jacksonville type teams, but they're just
getting key to Beth. I think, I think we should take
AJ. Brown there.
Yeah, happy with that. But yeah, that is a good point,
I think. like in how and how it like generally how I try to
approach this tournaments is like I obviously in an ideal
world you would stack up like eagles.
And, you know, either the Chiefs are the Bills, like, whatever
team doesn't get the by, and that would be like the best way
to build in theory, but they DP reflects that.
So it's really hard to get, you know, Elite pieces on both the
Eagles and one of these highly sought AFC teams.
So once I sort of like get box out of that and drafts, I've
been more quickly pivoting to like the Chargers, or the Jags,
or the Ravens and just scooping up all the best players in those
teams. Rather than saying, oh, I'm
going to try to do like the Philly Cincy.
Super Bowl with like semaj perine and Hayden her son
Cincinnati. Like sure that could win.
Like I'm not saying I would do that zero percent of the time,
but I think I would rather have the best.
Try to get the best players on both teams because someone will.
Have that room where all the Bengals players fall and they
are able to get Phillies in see, you know, all the best players
together. So, speaking of that, we'll see
what this next pick does. But I do.
I am looking at Cincinnati here. I was gonna say Cincinnati with
both Nixon. Why don't we take a dip on the
Smith? Yeah, I think we should take
Smith. I was going to say like, with
both Higgins and Nixon available.
I was excited about maybe trying to grab both those guys and hope
the sky in the sixth spot doesn't slap us, but I don't
think that's worth it anymore. With Megan's gone, I like Smith
here and then I think, Well let's let's give this guy and I
saw that Chris and he went Mahomes would then he dropped it
a step dicks. Yeah, that's interesting.
Yeah, for your kind of guarantee that when your top two picks you
one of your first two picks won't be in the Super Bowl.
Guaranteed off the bat. Yeah I think that can work if
like I think I would I would break where I was like an NSC
player. I think here we should go with
and try to set up a Chargers team.
What do you think? Yeah, good for me.
We could do like eagles, you differentiate your Eagle stocks,
you go at the proper characters, ha ha ha we can do the Chargers
and then we could tack on either like the Ravens or yeah, I like
that Jag's late. Well yeah that I think the
Ravens and them the Chargers are like good combos because it's
they can't they will they definitely can't play each other
in the first rounds. And yeah, that's true.
Yeah, I think there are rather. Yeah, that's a good point.
I would, if we can get a bunch of Ravens players, I would
rather do that than Jax Jacksonville, because Chargers
Jacksonville is right on one. I think characters have they
have that. So, we were talking about this,
the five seed plays, the, the four seed and of Jacksonville or
in there too, for seed, and the Chargers are one game behind the
Ravens and they have the tiebreaker.
So there's a decent probability that they.
Yeah. Could be that.
So, Herbert Herbert does go. And Keenan Allen went, which is
a little annoying, but we could still get Mike Williams.
We could tack on someone like Palmer.
Someone super late. All right, I like going Mike
Williams here and then grabbing Lamar at the next pic.
I think is what I would indeed lead, okay.
I wonder if we should take Lamar now.
What's his team going to do? Oh no.
He's setting up a Minnesota stack.
He's probably going to take cousins.
Let's take my client. Lamar's a pic by ATP.
Let's go Lamar and then. Okay, we had Mike Williams, I
don't think this guy would have taken Lamar, but what's that,
what's the draft board look like for?
Yeah, he's going with the Minnesota Casey stack.
So I'm guessing he takes cousins here.
Okay. But then he's got another pick.
I'm guessing this pickle because ins.
Yeah, that's so that's an interesting team.
See, I think this is a good Casey, Minnesota team, here,
cozzens Jefferson cock. And then Kelsey Juju Pacheco.
That feels pretty live in that scenario.
The Vikings hurting that's pretty easy to stack up
Jefferson expensive. But as things stand the five and
six see wouldn't play each other until the title game.
Yeah. See Championship, yeah.
Yeah, which is, which is what the Ravens and the charges will
be yep. So they won't play each other
until the last possible if they made a true.
That's yeah, that's a good thing to think about.
I made the mistake early on, I'm not thinking through the
matchups and I one of the first Mitten teams.
I did like a couple weeks ago, was Dallas, Tampa Bay, that's
about the worst one you can do because that's the most likely
first-round matchup. But the rest of them now it's
still like pretty uncertain who was playing who but you can like
you can rule out some scenarios at least so yeah, yeah.
Well, I definitely think that's something that takes work.
And anything that takes a little bit of work is going to be an
edge. Yeah, because I know the only
drug user base is sharp. It's really sharp, but I don't
think it's, it's checking that as much as they should be. okay,
so we got We'll have a chance at Andrews barring a snipe here.
I did see Chris Chris commented on a strategy with the Dig.
Say I didn't want to talk about that because I think it's
interesting but let's take Andrews.
What Chris said is the strategy for taking digs is for the AFC
Championship. Thanks Casey Buffalo's most
likely to advance their. I think that's, I think that's
fine. Like I get I think like
generally how I would have an offer to go back to the draft
board, but instead of Taking digs, I would lean towards
taking like a Jefferson, a CD lamb and AJ Brown like someone
from the opposite conference but it's possible.
All those guys were gone. I think, like, I try not to
judge teams rosters too much after the first three rounds.
I think you can take three different teams in your first,
three picks. And like, still make it work.
So we'll see at the end. How Chris is stories coming
together here, here we have interesting.
One, Connor where Like we have Dobbins available, but I do
wonder if Barkley is just a very quiet as eigen.
Nice are But I also think that we do, we not have, we have a
lot of players now that are in the, that would be in the first
round. Yeah.
Okay. Yeah I think we should go.
Yeah, we shouldn't be too worried about first round
points. I guess.
I think we should go Dobbins because he's coming up pretty
close on ADP to because well my rationale there was so obviously
Sake One was a value but the teams that don't have the
first-round byes and and And are wild cards.
They they don't get home games and so it's much harder for them
to advance true. And so, if we talk tree Wild
Card teams, that that would, that would be difficult.
There would be. Yeah, a lot of attrition there
as we go through two rounds. Yeah, that makes sense.
I do think like if some awesome just stacking two teams like I'm
totally fine. Going a random one off Berkeley.
No. Other Giants just because like,
I think he's going to project so well, in round one, and like,
running back points are are hard to come by.
Especially if you take a running back on like the Eagles or, you
know, Chiefs and bills and that team gets the by, I think, the
way we set this up, it made sense to go Dolphins there.
Right? Especially we have Ecuador to.
Yeah. So here, we could go.
Hmm. Let's see some Chargers guys.
Palmer goes, we have Everett the Andre Carter on Baltimore.
We have Demarcus got Edwards. Teddy Watkins.
We could also go gain. Well, that's not totally.
What about Quest. Was you have questions?
And gain also gained while in here?
Who do you want? Are these guys It's a shit show
garbage. Yeah, I would say.
Yeah, probably gain. Well.
Okay, we got you on a trip, but I think we'll be able to get
gain. Well, yeah, that's fun.
Yeah. It's weird.
Like, I don't really get what's going on with Jo leverage role
for the Chargers, but it seems like it's been on the decline
but he's obviously like he's still out there enough like not
dead to help us and he's never getting drafted.
So back to the uniqueness point, Let's go gain wealth here.
So well for Philly, guys. 3 Baltimore and for wait, how does
that math work? For four and three.
I'm sorry for 3 and 3, okay? Yeah.
Certainly think this is a, we talked about it unique, Philly
stack. This has a decent amount of
players that do not, get drafted, Chargers Everett gain.
Well and that also not many people stacking up Baltimore so
I think this is an interesting way.
Yeah I think we achieved the mission instead of.
Yeah I would I want to quickly look at before we sign off here
away that's the last draft. No, what is this?
There we go. I want to take a look at some
other teams so Chris got your arm.
Yeah I got around a second. Chris went case.
So he went for the Casey and Philly route as well.
I think Mahomes digs Sanders Goddard McKinnon and then a
bunch of some other tertiary case he guys, right?
Also has the Tampa route in play, and then I took digs and
Singletary for the AFC Championship game.
I think that's good. Like, if you're, if you're
Consolidated on two teams per conference, your live for having
the, the championship game, right?
So, I think that, that is a fun won the first tournament, so he
obviously knows what he's doing. I trust him, but It was
something that I thought was curious and yeah, I mean, like,
you can take tree different players and if you consolidate
against around all of those different teams, it's, you're
still dropping close to optimally.
Yeah, for sure. Feel gnarly.
I think was watching long, the chat.
I think it was Neil. Yeah.
That sounds right. We talked about a scene but he
hasn't nice Minnesota. Casey team going tax on some.
Some Jack's guys late. That I think keeps the the
Minnesota Jacksonville Super Bowl.
Also, in play, I like this team as well.
Cool. Alright, that was fun.
I got it on guys, but thanks for joining.
It's fun. Talking through week 17, sweats
best of luck to everyone. Who's in basketball tournaments
that finished next week? Yeah, it's been a fun ride, so,
we'll see how it goes. Got nothing.
Nothing to plug a little break from the content, but we'll be
back with with more statute saying stuff, probably next week
and we'll do some some stuff in the offseason to be determined.
But yeah, Connor anything to talk about, send send some
prayers my way. Yeah, that's it.
That's the only thing I that I'm going to plug.
Yeah, just some prayers. That's all we need.
Send your prayers. Just a chasing everyone best of
luck. I can be 17.
We will see you next week. Yeah, Festival.
Please guys.